# Top of this cycle for ASX 200, cash is king?



## kahuna1 (3 January 2019)

Oh well ... times change and times are the same.

Same stuff new thread, the old one is locked, I have been ... busy.

Will periodically update some stuff.

Merry Christmas and happy 2019. My very very large brain is hurting .... OH and that's something I have issues with even repeating !! The world changes and spins, and things remain the same. THE amount of pure NOISE and BS is deafening and the older I get, I actually know and accept how LITTLE know or even thought I did. I knew it all aged 18 in 1982 and now, well 36 years latter accept with grace, how little I knew then and even now.

Over the years, with the help of some very patient and smart people, none of which rubbed off on me !! I have become, well GREY .... hahaha ... but more and more accepting of the world. I can and have over the years spoken of many many many .... sshiiit I am sounding like that D grade reality show guy, the B grade Movie actor known as Regan was in power and Greenspan was about to get his reward for the Greenspan commission that on one hand CORRECTLY predicted they needed to save a lot more in the USA and massively raised Social Security taxes, Only to have Regan give THE BIGGEST tax cut ever around 3% of GDP ... then again some dope claimed his tax cut of late was the biggest at 0.9% of GDP.

As some, who have followed, on various places, since 1998, 5,000 or so posts, on various things, NOT shares alone but the things THAT make things go UP and down, some sites on demographics and advanced modelling and even one of the worlds largest Mental health sites for people dealing with people with SERIOUS ILLNESS and those being sociopaths or Psychopaths or the more common flavors of it Borderline Personality Disorder and Narcissistic Personality Disorder and so on. It is relevant to markets, and economics and VERY much so in this day and age. I was made a bloody ambassador to one of the sites for my community service and counseling VICTIMS, not those with it, as always its the people HURT who seek help !! Those afflicted, have little or no conscience, no remorse and NO REGRETS, no shame and actually a common trait in most of them is to rewrite history.

I could go on, and an ability to SWITCH one attack to another, maximizing something, say a fault and MINIMIZING another and throwing an accusation in and seamlessly switching from lying to I hate you, then I love you, OH I want to kill you, and all the time gaslighting your very soul, chipping away and leaving you with NO idea who or what you are. Oh lots of tactics and as a counselor and .... well bugger me ... an ambassador, the strange and FUNNY to someone cured and well past the pain and helping others is the language and tactics and even words are IDENTICAL at times despite say helping someone in say the UK or someone from Sweden or NZ.

Oh and the favorite tools, are bringing a machine gun to a fist fight , or recently it was nuclear bombs to a discussion that went from I hate you to I love you and your my bestie !!! Second is the old accuse the pother person of something that ... YOUR DOING ... they are on the defensive, and if they defend you with NO conscience or compassion or anything rip them to SHREDS.

YOU CANNOT .... EVER ... win a discussion, argument or even present logic to these types, then again to followers of faith, or paid PR types or delusional ... same thing. Oh have I had some funny economic discussions over the years.

There is of COURSE no excuse for violence and NONE whatsoever for it, or abuse, or hidden abuse. It leads to the abused eventually becoming CO- Dependent and suffering abuse syndrome and PTSD and even Stockholm syndrome. One wonder WHY an abused person and YEP guilty stays in abusive relationship ? Some its physical, some its extreme verbal and cruelty and so on and so forth. Some it kindness, some compassion and being given a choice to believe someone is the poor innocent one, is my sins among  others, in extreme and prolonged cases, even short ones, wishing for even a pause, and they become briefer and briefer as they cycle from I love you I hate you ....

just some rules for this .... of COURSE ... BOUNDARIES are the only solution and like expert sneaks, they nibble away at defenses and eventually ... you end up as accepting things, it you still had your right mind you never would !! NOT IN  A PINK fit .... Oh I am sorry I spat in your food you just ate, will you be coming back to dinner ? Or I just put a whopping tariff on your goods, will you still be buying goods from my country ? 

ASK APPLE .... Today about that. The Chinese actually with their NEW social points system COULD have added massive negative points to buying USA made goods, THEY DIDN'T need to because the Media in China is with cause tearing USA and its game to shreds. 

*Easy prediction is that the USA brand name is, well forever damaged by these antics*.

Free trade of course NEVER EVER works without rules. But instead of, well, enforcing the rules, the agreements went out the window in a populist wave and hey presto, fines.

Sure most will have views on this but Apple pays NO tax anywhere and even when they do get caught up with, they slip down another hole. So too the rest of the bunch.

Australia in 2020 is about to get a surplus, without ... WITHOUT ... the 15 billion collected from evasions, this NEVER would have occurred. Basically enough to build and fund 5 very large regional hospitals here and FUND THEM FOR 10 years !!

We I might add had to BEG .... BEG not to be included in this tariff wave and EU and Canada along with China lock horns still. Mexico, went well .... whatever .... why ? Its trade balance is TWO WAY and BALANCED and whilst China I am not suggesting has been closed to investment and trade, is, what it is. Either you wanted goods made at $2- an hour labor costs or $20-.

Back to abuse stuff ...
*World is suffering PTSD and at best Stockholm syndrome .... Economically*.
Not a prediction, sadly a fact. Let me distract you, accuse you, then send in the likes of Apple and Google and Goldman Sachs and Chevron and PAY NO TAX .... and if your complaining ... Oh and Glencore who the last two export billions in resources yet pay NO tax ... here.

Sorry pet topic tax inversion and THEFT .... but ATO has done a great job, but only got ....  20% of it ... yep ... its that large ... the theft.

Dealing with abusers and wife bashers and violence in the form of economic terrorism for the NEW ORDER ... of USA based Oligarchs, NO not a conspiracy theory, sadly a fact the tax paid ,,, the ONLY SOLUTION ....

IGNORE the abuser ... IGNORE them .... and if it was a relationship, the poor battered soul eventually gasps for air and .... the ONLY .... ONLY way to get away from the diseased is LEAVE and NO CONTACT.

Contact ... ANY CONTACT ... listening ... EMAILS and TWITTER .... what a joke ... is POISON. The ABUSER seamlessly will creep back in and the battered wife is BACK on promises of they will CHANGE. Individual cant change and sadly at times nations, loose their way. For the individual usually something traumatic happened in younger years, not hugged enough, wet their pants till they were 14, breast fed NOT enough or like in game of Thrones that young price till age 14. An aside...

NO CONTACT.

GROW SOME BALLS and ENFORCE boundaries may be a stupid wish for 2019, but economic terrorism is something I have commented on time to time. SADLY is TIME again.

Watch this, ex president of Mexico and a nation with one of the better healthcare systems run Universally for its people, IT A CLASSIC and will make you laugh.



Paying  attention to idiots, abusers and well .... stupid ... and I am not being arrogant in this, merely many years has taught me to present a scientific unbiased case, and impartial, clinical and NOT linking stupid cause and effect or bogus models .... and EVEN then .... of course humans will choose. As they SHOULD. Having done so, on some very vigorous discussions that were fan clubs and PR central for  companies and being critical of a claim via a company is .... NEVER welcome ... but pointing out the study or PRODUCT or accounts are BOGUS ... is of value to some.

Some, WILL NEVER be convinced and sadly, the Uranium discussions I have had is just one of many in say 2007, going ... gee there are 7 new mines coming on Line in Kazakhstan, Olympic dam as 75 years of WORLD supply costing NOT a lot to produce as its a BY product .... v Copper and gold and silver ... the SHORT term supply situation caused by a few one offs evaporated and even the prediction about 50 year old reactors NOT being so safe and NEW reactors ... WILL cost 5 times predictions ... NOPE ... it is what it is. PRESENT your case and RUN.

Reality, RELIGION and POLITICS and investing .... one supposedly should not discuss any of them and GOOD reason, Faith based ideals vs scientifically unquestionable WILL NEVER agree. Nor people faithful to a party, and THIS is 25% NO MATTER what and closer to 40% will hold those beliefs. Investing and I am an old fart, those who know WHO I actually am, which is NO ONE from NO where ... to have Joe Hockey read out 90 seconds word for word about tax inversion of something I wrote in his last speech was amusing ... same for two of the largest funds and hedge funds in the world about Inequality in the USA ... and ISSUES ...

IT DOES NOT ... mean one is ALWAYS right. LISTEN and make your mind up !! Not to me, but to anything presented to you as FACTUAL or REAL. So many things presented as correct are mere, well, crap produced by those who have vested interests and going back to something NOT so topical, Uranium ... the supposed ... experts were ... WERE lobby groups paid for by the USA Nuclear Plants.

BE VERY CAREFUL as to SOURCE ...

BE VERY CAREFUL and SKEPTICAL .. in the extreme of statistics, one of the things I have shared in the past, is BREAKDOWN of SOURCE data and methodology of STATISTICS ... and *POST 2000, USA has gone from BAD ... to WORSE THAN ZIMBABWE* 

Enough ... drivel for now ....
*In December ASX 200 outperformed and CAUGHT UP with the USA equities .... Nealy ending positive ... V USA.*

Then again, under-performance V USA is massive, or was, but we decided NOT to trade Medicare and various other things for 21% tax and 90% to the top end ...

Stay cool ... lights are changing and time for SOMEONE ... somewhere to SAY NO .... I joked about the USA ambassador the NEW one ... the girl about to have her meagure $180 per month food stamps cut off ... for MRS Gates and co, I would suggest sending the ambassador back to the USA with a  protest ... on comments about USA fighting our wars ... when US and NZ and UK .... paid a toll. so horrific in WW1 it defies discussion but 5 times the USA losses per capita. So on one hand GLAD they stepped in ... forever thankful ... same for WW2 and without Coral Sea and Midway, and again not to belittle anyone's losses .... I merely object as always to the obvious. When 9/11 occurred, actually 28 nations, yes 28 ... went to WAR .... not just one. Our contribution in the last 100 years, has been ... 60 odd joint ones.

Strange strange world we live in .... have some more OBVIOUS truths and no, I actually love 99% of Americans and are deeply grateful ....


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## Knobby22 (3 January 2019)

Scatological!


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## Darc Knight (3 January 2019)

Is @Tisme back?


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## kahuna1 (3 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Scatological!



scatological
/skatəˈlɒdʒɪk(ə)l/
_adjective_
adjective: *scatological*
relating to or characterized by an interest in excrement and excretion.

seriously ... ? I will get back to you ....  its a joke, a good one.


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## satanoperca (3 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> Is @Tisme back?



Kahuna is no Tisme, he has wisdom and is no smart arse, Welcome back, thought you must have gone to the grave, it has been a while since I have had the opportunity to read one of your posts


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2019)

Thanks,

Not used to the .... robust  style here, Funny I was talking of abuse ... xxx Will just do the Donald and since you can block them ... I shall. Life is too short to bother. Not that old ... just started in finance young Mr Know it all back in 1983 aged 18, oh how the time flies. I take it TISME is some sort of pest ?
I got voted off one site once ... biggest looser supposedly for a stock called LUM when it was being ramped. Strange ASIC actually charged some person for once for having 6 NICs and ramping it. Stock of course went from 100 million Market cap to ... zero ... 

Hilarious ... me a pest again .... on finance sites ... since 1998 ... 5000 posts ... two biggest ... one over 100k members ... gee I am number one. SS ... sadly now gobbled up ... same thing 50k .... a few others similar ...

Predicting things, CYCLES ... tops and bottoms is actually possible with a lot of work. Short term stuff with the short term idiot savant trading things .... not possible and shocking news comes out, like yesterday China basically saying get nicked AGAIN to any substantial changes to the trade policy and yep of course the market rallies when the selling stops. On he fundamental side, I counted and of the 2000 ASX stocks have at various times BOTHERED whilst of course looking for something good for myself in sharing analysis. Such loves that, well defy description in hindsight. Of course, occasionally one gets things WRONG and that's as always is the KEY .... if in doubt ... GET the hell out.

If they lie to you .... Get out .... if they move 20-25% against the market if they are an established company ... I tend to wave the white flag and exit. Sure some exits are at the low, but the pain saved is well enormous overall.  

Actual abuse terms now are in common use and the NOISE out there is extreme from the USA. Whilst not that thin skinned, I do love things like *"conspiracy theory"* when a person is quoting hard numbers, SOURCE DATA and CAN give 100 examples of what happens 100 times out of 100 when this occurs. How high or LOW things go before then ?   

*NEVER underestimate stupidity .... NEVER ....* 
Oh and conspiracy is Conspiring .... planning to do something ... and I rarely is EVER talk about things that have NOT already happened .... markets rise 200% on hot air IS not a conspiracy its a reality and same for THEORY .... Theory is a polite way of saying IDIOTIC crap .... unproven untested. A theory verses where I come from, or try to is 25% or MORE believe NASA never went to the moon .... this despite telescopes that can see the site ... the reflectors left by followup missions .... on can shoot a laser at them and it bounces BACK every time ... let alone 100,000 NASA employees and sub contractors since then ... 50 years and NOT a single one ... HAS admitted it was fake.

Can I safely assume its correct ? YES is the answer and WHILST still possible the chances for me are less than 1 in a million I am being faked.

So, A bold statement above, is not really there. If your expect adding a 25% tariff to a nations exports does any PR for products made there, think again. 

The rest, is pretty straight forward or so I thought. 
Other pet new names which are either masked abuse or total crap ... Intelligent investors, sophisticated investors, FAKE NEWS is a classic and to have BLUE BLOOD media ... blue in the sense they NEVER fail to factually check and recheck their media ... sources and so on. to have the paper that broke the Watergate story labelled is where we are in 2019.

An aside, I tend to deal in NUMBERS, balance sheets, raw data and almost PURE science. So if 100 nations and 4,000 odd years of decent records and at times 200 occurrences of the SAME thing always with the same end result, DON'T interest you as the to likely outcome, so be it. It is however a definition of insanity to do the same experiment over and over again with the same result and expect a different result. Then again Einstein was an intellectual moron according to some in 2019. I gasped with shock when the very very very large brain had a hunch about climate change after .... 15,000 scientists agreed upon a study .... UNHEARD OF .... 50 plus Noble Prize winners  and Australian PM and he goes I am not going to change ... I have NOT read the report were his next words ... but the BRAIN ... he had a HUNCH ... I had a HUNCH but its spelt Lunch actually and I enjoyed it ! Not that my brain is anything other than pea sized and being human I can and do make errors. 

In a single gasp, 1,000 hours of research 40 years on average study of 15,000 of the worlds brightest minds of science is reduced .... to cinders. I suppose, I should expect a lot more ... given my admitted humble abilities verses these people. So Ill just toughen up and use the MUTE button and laugh at my old joke ...

how does one keep an idiot in suspense ? Its valid as its how to deal with abuse in any form, ignore it .... DON'T ever respond ... or listen and tell them you will get back to them whilst you change your email, address and phone number .... or in this case putting a  block on their posts is good enough. 

Of course each to their own ... must run and go back to the site that shares ideas about how NASA never went to the moon. 

Take care
Mark


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## Knobby22 (4 January 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> scatological
> /skatəˈlɒdʒɪk(ə)l/
> _adjective_
> adjective: *scatological*
> ...



Apologies, I think I spelled it wrong. That's not want I meant!


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## Knobby22 (4 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Apologies, I think I spelled it wrong. That's not want I meant!



I was thinking of the word to describe someone who free associates when writing.


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## tinhat (4 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> I was thinking of the word to describe someone who free associates when writing.




Hehe. Words can be tricky. While urban dictionary suggests that a colloquial use of the term scatalogical can mean "Used to describe an idea or way of thinking that is neither sensible or logical", this is not the formal and more widely accepted meaning of the term. Interestingly, I live on the edge of the bush and was having far too many drinks with a couple of neighbours tonight talking about the local fauna and flora. We discussed "Tracks, Scats and Other Traces", Triggs in relation to some local animals I am wanting to identify. Scatology may not be that far removed from analysis of the stock market. I would not be surprised if Kahuna1 (Mark) lived near me.


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## Darc Knight (4 January 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Kahuna is no Tisme, he has wisdom and is no smart arse,




Welcome back to you too Satan 

I was referring more to Tisme's "generous" use of English at times. While I understand you and he didn't get along, probably best we not bag the Man as he isn't here to defend himself.

So another of us believing the ASX is on the slide. I assume everyone else in the XAO prediction thread is taking the pizz ..... or ramping.


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## Skate (4 January 2019)

Musing (a period of reflection or thought)



kahuna1 said:


> I knew it all aged 18 in 1982






kahuna1 said:


> just started in finance young Mr Know it all back in 1983 aged 18




I'm not disputing the accuracy of the above statement as they are both reflectively true. People with a financial background have a way with numbers.

kahuna1, I enjoyed your post & your musings..

Skate.


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## Skate (4 January 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Oh well ... times change and times are the same.
> 
> Same stuff new thread, the old one is locked, I have been ... busy.
> 
> ...





kahuna1, thank you for your inspiration musings, I'll make my comments about your musings in the 'Dump it here' thread..

Allow me make one comment please:

*When you talk*
When you talk, you are only repeating what you already know.
But if you listen, you may learn something new.

I'm the first to say - I've learnt something new today !

Skate.


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2019)

Thanks and read your musings with great interest.

Confirmation bias, always an issue, connecting the sun coming up with some unrelated occurrence, on one hand its an easy way to tear to shreds any study even clinically prepared and make it a conspiracy theory, then again, I usually run 3 if not 4 models on things to filter it out, then go back .... BACK sometimes to the dawn of modern man and then see what occurs each time this happens. Strangely, or NOT so strange is that every time you RAISE interest rates and RAISE tax of course economies and overheated activity ceases, Corrections occur.  

Lending money below inflation, ALWAYS leads to a loss in real terms.

Selling goods as TESLA now is doing below COST to try and win back customers, which is unlikely given the bloody nature of Chinese public opinion right now, IS never wise. It always 100% of the time leads to doom.

A company with no profit and well sales are irrelevant unless they have HAVE a profit margin, is worth what what ? Nothing of course.

Whilst the reports of 70% loss of sales there was denied it was NOT good whatever impact the current dispute had on sales there. Is it permanent ? Unlikely, but possible. Can it get worse ? Or course it can.

Apple sales, similar issues and this is NOT the really big picture, the MASSIVE macro one that takes such diverse things into it, that one would NOT believe because at times, they are or seem irrelevant, until they ARE.

Not predicting end of the world, NO there is always an idiot out there doing that. Its strangely this time different that, well, an aside for our current wealth and fortune a forgone conclusion that eventually it occurs via meteor or via much closer pressing issues. An aside for now.

Destruction of markets you sell into via either draining wealth, ability to buy $1,499- phones and then spitting in the face of others who are 20% of your market via imposing tariffs v the way Samsung and apple went to court cross claiming and some won and lost over stealing the latest gadget .... is interesting but insane. Doing the same to the 30% EU market and NOT paying tax because we are entitled to NOT pay any tax on profits on sales to anyone anywhere .... an interesting all be it short dated and soon to end in tears action. I place a tariff upon you, whilst I steal your tax ...

Hilarious and insane. Our market, well for me, its cheap very long term


then again, USA, drives things. I read your thoughts with interest and YEP .... loved them. 

Cheers Mark ... 

oh and into the silly rally the ASX just had as the USA lost its mind ... I did dump the lot. I cant help myself even whilst promising to NOT be a trader, when someone one side early Dec goes and shreds our banks I go your stupid and then rallies the market as the USA well ... has a cow ... LOGIC and COMMON sense which is hard if not impossible to teach ... sell into stupidity .... dont try and pick the highs ....too much but then again even they in the computer idiot savant trading world are easier to pick ... and value is value ... even in the face of what is total fear, Buying something with tax breaks yielding 10% when I suspect with some conviction we have LOW rates for some time, a mantra and song I made up in 2010 ... ZERO forever ... sing with me ... ZERO FOREVER .... well it did stop ... in the USA but it took nearly 10 years and EU still there as is UK. Buying and earning 8% MORE than cash and doing it for 10 years one doubles their money, irrespective of anything. Of course as long as the dividends keep going.

Being a scab and sadly, USA keeps spitting in its customers food ... and demanding they buy USA products, which well is Why some are such bushiness geniuss's and me NOT ... I will just play MR VOLATILITY and the plunge protection MAGIC rallies ... OH golly I love them ....


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2019)

Howdy

 From above ...

I will just play MR VOLATILITY and the plunge protection MAGIC rallies ... OH golly I love them ....

Ohh gee ... surprise surprise surprise .... the non farm payrolls showed ... well ... a well cooked number.

Not unexpected and par for the course just like early 2008.

In short, the week, and immediate outlook.

Shutdown, USA still going, with, well my 7,000 plus fibs going the talks went well, and the people there going it was a joke. Mr 7,000 then going he will wait a year and bugger the 800,000-. Again, an aside as he may declare a national emergency to keep the ex Mexican president out.

Similar, but market loved it, China talks, low level ones next week. Expect more positive, but, well. China has said its not moving on several issues. In the end, it is a smokescreen.

Underlying this, at 21% tax, USA earnings are, well what they are and support the Market.

Fed jawboning and making soothing noises, again a positive,  but, well they did say they will NOT be bullied and on one hand the market is now assuming NO raises for 2019, where, Powell clearly indicated whilst making soothing noises, the OPPOSITE of the market taking out all rises in 2019, 

Opinion, yep but one as a Fed follower for 35 plus years, again irrelevant, short term.

USA still behind its old highs and yep. a lot higher than our own over time, but then again cutting tax to 21% v 35% and ignoring the impact on the deficit and debt tends to do that.

Suspect, again opinion, as we basically ignored the Dec selloff, yes we hit lows .... but came off them massively, we merely follow slowly a rise if that's the USA way and yet again lag behind. Basically the 3% plus rise USA Friday, we likely get 1-1.5% and so on if that's where they take it.

Underlying this, one side positive and supporting USA and our own more so, stocks with great value and dividends verse very low rates here for some time, conversely, some bigger issues as always and top news of the week was Apple and backlash against tariff crap and if ... its merely a one off  or as I suspect a longer term thing. A mistake ... raising prices whilst destroying your customer base.

Oh of course the Democrats taking control of the House, senate, via its structure of 2 senators per state no matter if your population is 50 million or 5 .... unlikely ... to move EVER to a white card 60/40 so the President veto is besides the point. Republicans control the senate and 53/47 ,,, v House Democrats now in charge.

Expect more HOT AIR on Muller and impeachment ... seriously just ... in the end a noise. President even if guilty and well it appears so ... his servant go to jail but he can give himself a pardon and even if NOT, his next president just like Nixon ... who was given one, clearly guilty on Watergate, walked. WHAT IS NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN .... is if 2020 is lost ... the statute of limitations will still be open to prosecution as a person NOT the president ...  but Mr Trump. Expect some unusual behavior if the polls show him behind in 12 months. AND as if things are not unusual now !! NO chance of impeachment and it being done whilst in office or very very low chance.

playing blind mans bluff, for any other nation, closing the govt even partially, WOULD and SHOULD have credit rating agencies jumping up and down, IMMEDIATE CREDIT watch and downgrades, especially a nation that promised SOME more tax being collected via amnesty and lower rate. Unfortunately, giving greedy tax cheats, and the tax in question the CEO's were bringing back was stuff stolen from overseas and THIS  trade war is again, classic abuse tactic of accusing unfair practices whilst I rape and steal, the TAX meant to be slowing at 15% discounted rate as 3-4 trillion overseas, tax came back ... well that was NOT good enough for them so ... shhh ... its a secret NO tax coming in ...  USA budget in tatters ... Credit rating agencies ignoring tax collected at 30% of GDP v 40% for the rest of the world and debt at 100% of GDP and well ... deficit at 5% plus ... the new tax dodge from the tax evading creeps is to park all the stolen tax not paid to EU and japan and every nation over the last 15 years since the last amnesty ... park it in a tax haven ... then announce as though its come back into the USA massive buybacks which on the main are now already over .... buybacks as the capital gains tax at 15% v 35% plus personal rates are too high ... so Apple buys 9 billion of stock 33% higher ... let alone old GE and its 20 billion 400% higher ... great for P.E and earnings ,,, but this latest tax idea out of the investment banks is to PARK the actual stolen tax .... in a haven, with NO TAX, then LEND the money from the tax haven and earnings are TAX free ,.,,, whilst charging the COST ... yes a legitimate COST ... in interest  expense whilst earning a tax deduction at 15% and paying NO tax the other side ... awaiting the NEXT tax cut Mr Dump has planed and the next amnesty ... at 5% v 15% v what used to be 35% tax.

I wonder how they will like the new *DRONGO tax* coming out soon ? All with shiny penalties and actual jail terms. But that's late Jan 2019. 

Again, an aside, I really don't expect the credit rating agencies to act, NOT EVEN MURMUR ... even with the govt shut down, even with well a missing 250 billion corporate tax collected, let alone idiotic estimates on increases in collections ....  all this is an aside, until, well it isn't.


But I can. in one press conference after outright telling a lie about the meeting with House and saying it was very productive and going very well, in seconds go to. ... oh it may be a year shutdown .... to ... well  I can call a national emergency because the Mexicans are NOT paying for the wall ? God I love the circus it all is.

Strangely ... jawboning and plunge protection team ....  and so on.

Meanwhile ... things festering and actually changing out there. Santa gave a few backbones to people r so it seems and if the absurdity of, what is going on, NOT ... the underlying stuff ... the stupidity of having to watch a govt dismantle every protection for the consumer via presidential decree and having ex lobbyists who championed destruction of various things NOW in charge of agencies meant to protect them is ... well, what it is. 

Happy 2019, but for now, up up and away ... making Mr Paulson ex CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2008 look not like a pig, then again Cohn another ex ceo and his budget of 2018 ... after paying himself 300 million departing Goldman sachs ... to become the 5th successive ex Goldman bunny or zombie running the budget and social security and Medicare ... cannot I suspect be t0opped ... oH no its Munchkin ,,, same thing ex Golmans .. Cohn was merely the advisor to the president ... same thing ... 

Ahh ,, we live in hope ... and stupidity awaiting a comment out of the IMF or even Fed on the Fiscal side. The USA fed, whilst the new guy ... has some backbone ... IGNORES and in this the only real central bank in the world that ignores the Fiscal side. HENCE ... they have a massive sloppy big stimulus with over 1 trillion YEP 1 trillion deficit in 2019 .... and well ... rates tightened and almost ... at CPI. So one hand push and the other pull ...

Leaving all of it ... yawn ... pick the eyes out of the volatility ... ignore the noise and hoopla. Its a distraction and to need to be the headline every single day is tiring as a child throwing a tantrum. I just read wearing yellow makes you look bugger, not orange, maybe some yellow gloves to make his hands look good may distract him ? Maybe a Chinese finger puzzle is the go, he is to arrogant to ask for help and it would be amusing to see him with two fingers on opposing hands stuck together for the next 2 years.

Take care
Mark Kahuna


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## Xendragon (6 January 2019)

@kuhna1 seek help bro you have much knowledge but you yourself have become unhinged. Much love Xen.


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## kahuna1 (6 January 2019)

Ahh, how I love, comments like this.

Science is science, history when it occurs 100 times the same way, is an experiment conducted 100 times with the same result. If in the course of a career since 1983, and my own form of community service, sharing, for free, hundreds of hours of research, at times thousands, offends you, or the science of doing something, that NEVER works, time and time again, is NOT of interest, well so be it.

With love, I will get back to you .... that amusing joke about how to keep idiots in suspense comes to mind as I use the blocker function on the posts ... tee hee

xxx


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## kahuna1 (9 January 2019)

Howdy.

well .... noise and the old rally rally rally after plunge protection comes in and its magic.
Prior to Trumps fireside chat, again noise and an extension of Wetback Policy number one .... when he was 8  years old still in nappies and still being breast fed ... Trump born in 1946 by the way and the oldest ever USA president ..
..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wetback
*Operation Wetback was a system of tactical control and cooperation within the U.S. Border Patrol ...* from 1954 ...

Difference being .... Mexico agreed, I did post the thoughts of the ex MExican president and the new one, if anything more opposed.

An aside, we are half way back from the lows and our market did very well v the USA in Dec ignoring all or close to it of the pain.

Not much to say, of any value other than its hot air.
On China and trade deal, these trade deals have little to do with anything other than protecting patents and when say Mexico was threatened ... with almost a balanced trade two way with the USA but, really of little value as parts for cars from the USA sent to Mexico and assembled and sent back ....

again as GM sacking 22,000 workers in the USA, the futility and stupidity of these things have more to do about tax evasion and protecting non payment of tax .... in free trade and NO TAX .... issues than anything else. Again, an aside, for now, the distraction value as one after another threat, which really isn't is pushed to distract the bottom line ....

Ho HUM ...
Our stocks ... on the dips were value .... I do have some concerns about the stupid change to tax imputation via LAbor if they get in. That, well, explains some of the shredded nature of our markets in 2017-2018.

The low, well .... its now miles away and USA, stocks, seemingly on fire.

Play the ranges and avoid if one can the extreme noise.
I cant and find it, well .... upsetting ... oh and a trade deal with China, seemingly closer and even if it were so, it remains to be seen what if any value it is longer term .... I doubt much and ... the second thing is the damage done to the USA brand name in China whether it was a one off ... the drop say in Apple sales or Tesla at ... even worse.

Must run and prepare for our commander and chief ... to speak.
Cheers
Mark K


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## kahuna1 (11 January 2019)

Ho hum,

oh the noise .... the forest is gone and so too the tree's.
The current stuff, well ... noise.

It was and is amusing to remember end of Dec 2018 USA had fallen by how much ? The whole year ... ??

OOOOHHH 4% or so .... we went down 8% or more .... and without the ignoring of Dec via the USA it would have been more.

USA via the magic of PPT and well now a muzzled USA fed ... to some extent .... up up and up and we follow but of course slower, for the above reason.

Beyond this, lower levels and recent lows .. well passed but down there and verses a low longer term interest rate outlook here, a good value to buy at 7% or more dividend. Cloud on the horizon and why I suspect, any rally, any meaningful one here is unlikely in 2019 is the Labor proposed new dividend rules and not being able to get a refund, merely just deduct it against tax owed is a really big thing given the size of the superannuation pool and its growing nature. 

Other thing, slowly slowly the old tax office with 30 other nations working towards the inevitable end of this tax theft and inversion stuff. They tried, not imposing fines, and well ... the majority went and just changed the structure and went down another rabbit hole. Monday and the ATO meeting was, well illuminating where we are going within 18 months and the EU and a few others likely in three years.

The gist of it is, NO >>>>> NO MORE .... eat poo .... and the arrangers, those being investment banks and accounting firms are to be treated just like someone stealing welfare or fraud via say claiming NDIS or govt money when not providing the service. It is no different and despite the lobbyist for Goldman's our new USA ambassador and thinking he will prevail, so so sorry .... 

And this is the other half of the proposed DRONGO tax, which is under wraps, for now. Its neat, its clean and making it an enforcing theft as a criminal offense, no amount of political donations into EU nations or Australia will work. For now, again just noise.

Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

I don't expect them NOT to try it, the Chinese hot air and NO DETAILS or likely change in reality will I suspect be the spur or maybe the ... ending of the shutdown ... either way, a word of caution is that USA ignoring even well ... worrying things. Fed chief says he is actually looking at  the govt debt side and is worried ? Holy hell ... its not since pre Greenspan and Volker any USA fed chief looked over the Monetary side and went ... are you joking. Also, the tax implications of actually having to pay ... not claim to have paid, as a few of the tech people did, straight faced to our tax office CLAIMED they paid 25% tax on profits globally .... when NOW  we are handed USA tax returns along with EU and so on.

They didn't pay it here ... NOR the USA ... easily seen via tax receipts ... let alone now their tax returns, they paid it into a fantasy tax haven .... and worse, lent the money to the USA parent at double the going rate and claimed 21% tax write-off, into ZERO tax haven tax rate and then ... with a straight face ..lied not only to the Australian tax office, the EU guys were ... even more upset. 

Must run, off to Davros and the World economic forum .... and hoping to catch a dance with Janet Yellen again .... along with the Oligarchy heads and their annual meeting. Since Donald will not be there the dance with Mikaliea is out .... sadly ... 

Cheers 

Mark K ...


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## Knobby22 (13 January 2019)

I am worried about Brexit. I thought it would be a managed exit but it is looking more and more as being completely unplanned due to a failure of democracy.


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## Smurf1976 (13 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> I am worried about Brexit. I thought it would be a managed exit but it is looking more and more as being completely unplanned due to a failure of democracy.



Agreed there. It's looking like it's going to be a completely disorderly event unless the whole thing ends up being called off, or at least postponed, at the last minute.


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## kahuna1 (19 January 2019)

Tee Hee ....

From before .... 

*Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.*

Magic rally .... must be Kim from Korea meeting .... or the third excuse in 11 days of up up up .... similar about the USA Fed slowing down raises ....
well we are there ... NOTHING ... not a thing can shake this correction. Not even, well, a company that had 15 times its debt in cash, according to their accounts, being bankrupt, within 12 months out of China .... ASIA went down, USA ... went up ... EU and others reacting to well shocking news surrounding Trump and his actions, erased any loss ... to ... well ... any and all news being like it was not long ago ... any negative is a positive and any positive is a positive.

A number showing weakness in The USA .... buy ... as rates are not going to rise .... if its a strong number ... buy .... because its a positive ... hilarious and just play the ranges. Key levels right now. As to shutdown, if it was say Germany, it would be a smoking black hole as the UK  found out via Brexit ... but ... well ... nope ... we will have a rally however it ends ... so whilst markets go up and down, the stopping point at 50% of the bounce unlikely to stop them. It should given some of the appalling revelations that make Nixon and his Watergate actions look trivial, the sad reality is, as Trump said, he could walk outside Trump Tower in NY and shoot a gun, killing some poor innocent and not have anything happen.

Strange position I find myself in, one foot or toe seeing the inside of things and the other, with efforts to stop these idiots. The G30 minus one is working towards actually making an impact on claims via one Oligarchy head he paid 25% tax, yet none seen in the EU, Or USA or Japan .... or China, so that's actually 90% of the world and its markets, and overall tax paid is 5%, since we all can now see the other nations tax filings. Times are changing and first step is to make it criminal, the people who arrange these schemes. It has of course always been that way, but investment banks and accounting firms are on notice and should be concerned. A point I raised here in Davros and was, well, told what an idiot I was because they  OWNED them. I shut my mouth and took my rebuke as I should have. USA with 3.5 billion a year in political donations, both sides of the fence, then another amount doubling that, OFF the books but tax deductions have it well covered. So 7 billion a year, each year and every year, of course, for them, Democracy and the will of the people is an aside.

Not so for the G30 minus one ... Sure some of it goes on, but the scale of it, arrogance and impact is astounding.

The first step of the DRONGO tax is this criminalization of it ... the beauty of the Drongo tax and tax theft .. the secret os NOT so secret anymore and still the dismissive nature of these people v the needs of the society and many is an aside. After being told I am an idiot, for pointing out the first step, I am not about to do it again. Just push harder for DRONGO tax, a simple fair and elegant tax to be implemented which will, radically alter finances for 80% of the world. 

On Markets ... 

Oh well, never ever bet against stupidity .... or the plunge protection team. All rules are shelved with the second, the first ... well .... stupid is what it is.

Noise, and deafening ... sift it out and from Davos and the Oligarchy meeting going on prior to the World Economic Forum as per usual, they are as per usual pushing their own agendas. No tax for any member and well ... 

TAKE CARE

Mark K


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## kahuna1 (23 January 2019)

Ho Hum,


USA actually stopped at the 50% retracement and for now ... going down.


Lost totally in the noise, two things and big things for Australia.
China related, and USA declared yesterday its going ahead with Huawei case in Canada. This is ugly.


Even uglier, the Chinese wanted to come early to next weeks meeting. USA said no thanks. In fact a series of comments by the Chinese yesterday got lost in all the idiotic noise. They were very blunt and very clear about China and its IT rights. They were basically laying down the law in their view and NO WIGGLE ROOM. NONE ....


So whilst this trade deal may be sealed, its unlikely to have any substance at all. If I were a betting man, I dont even think one will be made and China will just be forced to go, get stuffed.


I note, idiot media reports about China GDP at 21 year lows, well 21 years ago, their economy was 20% of the current size, 10 years ago .... 50% the current size. Same argument and view i have had for a long time on this, whilst this trade war is NOT a good thing, China if they had the bloody correct exchange rate is larger than the USA. Its growing of course SLOWER as the overall economy matures. 


One a positive, the other, well, the stance is not good for the USA side. I note also that France sent a fine to one of the tech giants for sharing info and its about to become a blizzard via the new EU rules. Add to that, sometime soon a transaction tax for the tax evaders and likely they adopt the new Drongo tax when announced, the clock one might say is ticking.


IBM announced a set of results, the likes of which, well I have 35 years of looking at these things and I giggled when I saw them. The old recurring and non recurring expenses. So we have 10 different rules for how the tech girls in the USA report stuff and trying to sift out the bottom line is becoming tedious to put it mildly.


Our market, well, it seems supported despite the USA cold overnight. Rest of the noise, well twitter reading give me a great laxative dose and try not to do it. USA remains shut down, and the hot air and bluff and bravado coming out is, well amazing.
New Democrat house lady, 29 ... Latino I think, proposed tax of 70% on earnings above 10 million in the USA. Well, it became a 70% for everyone immediately on FOX news ... and gee ... I needed more toilet paper. She is being called a socialist for actually trying to get upper incomes to PAY TAX .... Gates paid 12% v someone on 100k is unable to avoid paying 35% .... and Buffett ... 15% and he doesn't declare much income a mere 50 million at most average the last 20 years,


Please join me in congratulating Buffet with 100 billion or so, given 25 to his family, his sons ranch on the Mexico border runs .... well ... safaris, But Via his tax returns v wealth *Buffett is 2,000 YEARS old this year*. Yep at 50 million declared v 100 billion ... or 150 if I count some he has given away ....* he could be 3,000 years old*. Some I might add his hapless son aged 64 has built a ranch on the Mexican border, paid the police off and in a recent article was pointing a high powered rifle at those terrorist !! 


I know, you think I am making it up !! 

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/howard...county-11103225

_*Over the past several years, 64-year-old Howard Buffett �" using wealth supplied by his father �" has been waging his own border war in Cochise County*_


_Tee hee ... nothing like your unpaid tax dollars at work.  OOOH Trump declared yesterday that Latinos vote now for him at 50% .... his highest approval rating. Maybe they are the ones the hapless racist worthless son of Buffet has in his sights ? _


Have fun
Cheers
Mark K


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## kahuna1 (23 January 2019)

OOOHHH ...

_*The sole financial underwriter of the Howard G. Buffett Foundation is Warren Buffett, who donates roughly $150 million to $180 million to his son’s charity annually, according to tax records.
*_
Holy Laxative,

I thought I had seen it all. Yes MR Nice guy ... pays no tax, bugger the welfare of the 99% others and he has his own private Army.


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## Xendragon (23 January 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Ho Hum,
> 
> 
> I note, idiot media reports about China GDP at 21 year lows, well 21 years ago, their economy was 20% of the current size, 10 years ago .... 50% the current size. Same argument and view i have had for a long time on this, whilst this trade war is NOT a good thing, China if they had the bloody correct exchange rate is larger than the USA. Its growing of course SLOWER as the overall economy matures.




They are reporting China GDP "Growth" is at is at 20 year lows not GDP size.


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## kahuna1 (23 January 2019)

Really .... Why did I take u off ignore ?

Yep, 6.4% growth ... is 12.8% GROWTH and demand for goods and raw materials from 10 years ago.
I am well aware about GDP size, that was the POINT I made. Back to ignore ...

cheers


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## Xendragon (23 January 2019)

Ah … I see. Then why didn’t you write that ?. Is  English your first language?

You do realise your point is as pointless as their point? More to the point would be that GDP growth in China is slowing. Oh look I made my own point.

Back to ignore I guess …


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## kahuna1 (1 February 2019)

Howdy,

RAH RAH RAH .... USA USA USA ..... zzzzzzz

Seriously, I know the market had a bad December, and yep the rules go out the window with the plunge protection team in the USA, but seriously ?

UP 8% in January ?

Basically the USA fed is muzzled, ignore the shutdown, ignore the capex numbers did not move. Apparently, well its China China right now as it was the USA fed a few days ago.

NOISE and our market is about as related to the USA as China. Or its becoming that way, the Chinese market which has a mind of its own, our market did a lot better in Dec than the USA and of course its massive spike even into early 2019, has stopped like a ton of bricks.

So where did we end January ? Up 218 points or less than half the USA.

Obviously we await the Royal commission report into banks out after close Monday, but, being suspicious, as its the only way to go, the action has been obvious of late. What I mean is that WBC lost 5% in two days to its lows this morning before recovering, but its not rallying much. I don't know what the royal commission will recommend but so far the banks have been hammered into hell. All down in the bottom 10% of their recent ranges and so far away from the highs its insane.

Given the market action and the fact the report whilst NOT public had to be printed, it would appear I did not get my advance copy and it seems it might not be very kind to the banks !!

What is pretty clear, is the insanity of the USA side. One hand the lower end of the population is being squeezed like a pip. The other is the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans and the MEDIA is shocking. Never seen this before, NEVER. FOX is a disgrace and its reporting makes Trump look honest. When you have 3 people in the USA with more than the 180 million lowest, its insane. Same for $400- expense for an emergency the FED now estimates that 40% of all Americans cannot meet this. Something is very very wrong with this picture over there.

Our side, I read with disgust the Tax office report and are they BLIND ? Or just being bribed ? Microsoft when before the Senate had sales of USD 2.2 billion in Australia  now 3 billion AUD .... so i go to the ATO tax report on what tax has been paid ? The income was a mere 500 million in sales NOT 3 billion and from the 2012 senate committee the doofus Gates had there admitted all sales are put through Singapore and a tax haven then Bermuda. I look at their accounts ,,,, a margin of near 25% on sales ... so 750 million PROFIT out of Australia and tax owing at 225 million and they paid less than 10% of it ?

Really ?

Apple is worse  .... Google and Facebook again the same ... easy to reconstruct sales in Australia and *its been illegal since 1977* to TRANSFER PRICE this stuff overseas. Then again a whole lot of Apple cards seem to have made people forget this. Whilst the ATO has tried, its got one year at HALF the expected amount and they went back to NORMAL.

All an aside for now.

Times eventually are changing in the USA irrespective of the wishes of the elite. That NO TAX was paid when funds were meant to be repatriated there from stolen tax overseas is telling. I suspect TRUMP is forced to give a special amnesty even lower then the 15% rate he did.

For now, USA fed is muzzled. Trump makes Nixon look like a saint. Direction of USA market is irrelevant as 30 nations including Australia are about to make life for tax thieves a lot harder. VERY VERY large swing about to occur in the USA which will take TIME. Likely 10 years, but some very long serving politicians were unseated in absolute surprise losses in 2018. Odds ranged from 6/1 to 50/1 and the unseated were spending at 10 times the rate of the people who got elected and kicked them out. To change senate will take 2-3 elections so 6 years. I doubt much changes even if Democrats elect a president I sadly think Bernie is too old and some more moderate corporate Democrat much like Obama who took 65 million from Goldman Sachs and then 35 million from Walmart family the Waltons and whilst a nice guy, did bugger all for health and welfare and pensions and so on.

All an aside for Australia.

We have low rates for a long time I believe. We face an idiotic change to franking credits, it SHOULD be means tested to say 50 k or more income verses hitting self funded pensioners. Anyhow, whatever the royal commission does, spank the banks has already occured and if rates remain here, which seems likely for 2-3 years, low rates, earning 5.6.7 even 8% is a good thing.

On the mix of the market, TLS did a stupid rally, whilst TPG is not going to set up a mobile network, Telstra is hopeless and the NBN deal is not what they expected so dividends will, irrespective of TPG likely fall and fall till when I suspect the government will wave the white flag of the NBN as it was stupid anyhow and even 4g gives me 60MBS mobile data and 5 G try 200 MBS ... the plan was, well ... stupid.


I note FMG is rallying like a thing on fire. Sure VAle and Brazil was awful, and good for their overall Iron Ore price, last time I looked and it was a few days ago, the HIGH END high grade Iron ore was on fire an not so much for FMG. Its got lower grade rusty dirt. Whilst longer term have always liked it, was amazed when it recently went below $4- and just as astounded its up here.



All the rest ? Well, housing side is sucking wind and it happens after a billion zillion years of rallying. The RBA and APRA did smash on the brakes and rightly so as did various governments making it much more expensive for foreign buyers. As to the long term, its still expensive here verses income and whilst the slide in the banks may be somewhat worry worts on that front. the big 4 are less exposed than some of the smaller ones which strangely have done better.

For now, we just meander along. USA like announces the BEST DEAL EVER ... with China ... then With north Korea ... YAWN. Why ? Well with loss of control of the lower house, there is a surprise coming in about 6 weeks. Possibly prior to that DUMP declares an emergency and builds a wall around the White House so he cant get out !! I speak of a very large wave that, well, is going to make the close of the Government look I suspect very much like a tea party.

I speak of course about the debt ceiling. In the USA. U know the country that is about to reach its peak population in 2025 when the baby boomers start departing in vast numbers and with record low birth rates, not much immigration legally and illegals, well ... so instead of having 500 million in the USA by 2050 its going to be 300 million, or LESS than they have now, shhh its a secret. Its so we could get a tax cut of 1.5 trillion for the rich.



Amazing place. Right now in Senate three senators are proposing a bill to slash all estate tax over 50 million which effects a mere 1,700 families verses 125 million families. Of course, you may have heard Sanders and others talking a 705 tax on the Rich, THIS IS USA not here. The rich here PAY MORE and higher rates, but NOT the USA Gates pays 15% on about 5% of his income. Anyhow, all hell will break loose in 6 weeks I suspect. ITs going to be amusing and a lot of noise. OH Warren another in the 2020 race proposes a tax of 2% then 3% on the wealth they own. Nothing against billionaires, NOT here or in most nations, they PAY tax !! Not the USA.

Oh the event ... in March in the USA ... the DEBT CEILING ... it needs to be raised to accommodate a 1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019.

I will end with a *happy 22 trillion dollar debt birthday party*. USA has added the GDP of BRAZIL to its debt pile since Trump got elected. NEVER EVER before at this stage of an economic cycle has a government been spending at 5% deficit. Things are sadly NOT what they appear, USA stocks at record highs but outside the top 10% .... a mere 5% of shares are owned by the lower 95% in the USA. This is a factual number.

Not sure what the hell to do. Our Government, and most EU and other nations fiscal responsibility and balancing budgets in EU has been a priority for now over 10 years. Ours, same thing and with a mere 15% NET debt Federally, we have one of the lowest in the world. Then again if one goes to the IMF they DON'T include even RBA assets as an offset to the debt or the FUTURE fund. They in the case of Singapore report their debt to GDP at 100% of GDP and ignore the 250% of GDP the Singapore govt funds hold in overseas assets. Talk about BS ....

Why the hell we are paying 100 million to the IMF or World bank or OECD when the numbers are so Oligarchy influenced is like how we bend over and let Apple pay NO TAX here. I might add OECD a mere 15 million has identical numbers like the IMF and World bank and on tax collection they DO NOT INCLUDE ... superannuation which is by definition a tax, overseen by the Tax office not able to be touched till age 67 ... and they don't even include GST so it takes the USA collection of 30% of GDP in taxes, we apparently only collect 27% *NOT the 39% reality we DO * like most EU nations.

Even more than now !! With the stupid tax coming in ... Imputation. I take 10 APPLE $100- cards and a new Iphone to vote this in !!

Anyhow, USA has its future crumbling and in many ways I thank Trump. Thank him for breaking so many promises and his twitter account with 57 million followers, 40,000 tweets from his deranged mind, He follows ? 47 people and he has liked ? & posts in 10 years !!

The favorite twitter account of the up and coming and I suspect a big big name in the USA in the future, she has a growing base, not even top 500 but its GROWING and growing quick. She follows 2,000 people and in 10 years has done about 2 posts a day and ... thanks ... or LIKES of other posts or comments ? Well over 10,000-posts she has liked. She and I mean of course AOC, has been adding people at the rate of 200k a month whist is not massive, but astounding for a 29 year old first term in office person.

One person preaches to the serfs. and the other. interacts, listens and behaves like someone who gives a FIRETRUCK.

This upcoming debt ceiling should have had the credit rating agencies in panic mode. but like the IMF and World Bank and OECD and basically much all else, its all about the interests of the Few. AUSTRALIA should no longer be a member of each of these. We should prosecute credit rating agencies for IMPROPER taking of money under false pretenses. That the USA has the same credit rating as here with 110% debt to GDP, collects 75% of the tax and is ABOUT to hit peak population is EASY for even a blind person to see an issue.

China whilst not a fan of the regime, if asked the last place I would like  to live it would be there, under their thumb. Love Chinese here, not a racist thing but China just passed the USA in something else. Its retail sales are MORE than the USA !! MORE.

I do wish the Australian government *WOULD GROW SOME BALLS* and say NO !! NO to tax thieves taking a whopping 15 billion in unpaid taxes. MAKE IT ILLEGAL with jail, terms is where they are going, but so slowly its killing me. Since Gates has parked his money in a charity, paying no tax to anyone, inviting him here and arresting him is pointless as he doesn't own any Microsoft shares anymore. As to his tax paid at 12% v the then current 39.7 tax rate is and was an issue for the USA, but a sad joke on the lower 99.99%. His actions in Australia, defrauding the nation of 200 million a year for 30 years, cannot go on.

Enough. Its a strange strange world. Not a peep about the USA massive rally in January. Bad news was met with a rally. Government shuts down, lets rally. Every second day as mindless drones listen to Twitter and Fed is backing off. Again and again a rally. Now China deal, it gets wheeled out again and again.

Its about as relevant to Australia as, well, Kim Kardashian. What is relevant to our future and that of the EU, is this tax evasion stealing 1-2% of tax UNPAID anywhere. Not to the USA, not to the nation where they sell their stuff.


For now, our market and currency and whole economy is about as important as the lower 99% in the USA. We are in fact, a new caste system, SCUMBAGS as Paul Keating would say. Irrelevant in the extreme. Our stock market and whole economy just like when the Asian Financial crisis hit, we were sold down the toilet, DESPITE … having at the time ZERO NET FOREIGN DEBT and federal government.

In some ways, I feel like an ant, caught by some monster child with his magnifying glass and I can smell something burning.

For now, with the ASX market I suspect prices a bit too low, I am cautious as ever to the issues overseas. Sure I expect some deal with China and so what, same with Korea, again so what. China and its long term reaction to having its largest tech company held to ransom remains to be seen. The Fiscal side outside the USA is in good order compared to them. Then again so much total BS going on that, well. Sorting it out are explaining it are irrelevant. Sadly 80% of people who voted for DUMP still support him. STILL …

For our side, well buying some shares yielding 6% v 2% at best and sitting on your hands is always a good thing. Each year, your miles ahead. Buying with franking credits something with an effective yield of 10% even better.

I await like most the Royal Commission report and it appears from market action that some more Bank Spanking is in order !!


Back when something changes in 6 weeks

Take care
Mark K

Davos was fun, Gates I have invited to come scuba diving with the Koch Brothers on the barrier reef ... If only !!


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## satanoperca (1 February 2019)

Hi Mark, 
I have been trying to follow your posts, but maybe I do not have the intellectual capacity to do so, which I accept.

So can we just discuss one part of your latest post, if you can help me progress slowly, maybe I can get up to the same speed as your intellectual capacity. Smiles

"USA has its future crumbling and in many ways I thank Trump. Thank him for breaking so many promises and his twitter account with 57 million followers, 40,000 tweets from his deranged mind, He follows ? 47 people and he has liked ? & posts in 10 years !!"

I have always been fascinated with twitter, I do not participate or interact with, but your statements of figures, while I accept is correct interests me. Bare with me on this.

If Trump has 57M followers, who are they, do they believe in the crap that comes out of his mouth?
40K of tweets, is that not stalking the general population?
47 People, so he plays with a platform that he doesn't engage with, it is not about discussion but more about a soap box he can stand on. You do not need to answer that question, as I know you response, which I agree with.

So, is twitter real, is it not a commercial enterprise that benefits in faking the figures? 

My rant, I do not believe the figures twitter shows of follows of twitter account holders, it is a brilliant market ploy to get people onto their platform and thus derive marketing dollars.


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## kahuna1 (1 February 2019)

Yep,

well numbers I used, Trump is near 58 million followers, he has a total of 40,500 tweets, almost all abusive to someone, he FOLLOWS a mere 45 people and has liked, in 10 years, in millions of responses a sum total of 7.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


AOC or  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez  tweeting for similar 10 years, a mere 6,871 tweets, follows to be exact, 1,400 people and has given out 10,700 likes.
https://twitter.com/AOC?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

One is a soap box ... one is a way of communicating in the modern world with your followers.

I actually met Trump way back a long long time ago in NY when he was going broke for the second time and even chased small banks for funds. AOC, never met, have followed for a few years, along with Bernie and more so since her win. She ran against a fellow Democrat, one who has not lived in the area and Queens and Bronx for 30 plus years. She was given odds of 30/1 of winning even at the voting date. She won by a landslide and a 15% margin.

She uses Twitter and instigram and on occasion on instagram live when cooking is asking for how to do a pot roast. Since she won, well I looked back and her 2011 Graduation speech and a lot of media well prior to her even deciding to run and she, and the modern world is changing. SHE has not changed as far as I can see from even 2011, let alone her upbringing.

USA is in dire trouble, DIRE. Or I should say outside the top 20% is. Healthcare is a shambles and when a person needs to work 2 or 3 jobs as their hourly pay is woeful. and if they break their arm it costs $1,200 with insurance and the question is HOW much is the excess ?  Without it, $1,500.

Times, well they are changing and I do think for many disillusioned in the USA with working for 80 hours at $12 an hour to make ends meet, and getting taxed and massive healthcare insurance premiums whilst the Rich in the USA just gave themselves a 1.5 trillion dollar tax gift, the last election a lot in dire straights begging for something new, voted in Trump.

I will leave another to explain just SOME of the things he has NOT done. Not covered in the media much, but things, are changing when a nobody from nowhere with NO CASH and NO FUNDING refusing corporate funding runs a campaign on 300k raised in a world record for the lowest average donation, BE AFRAID. Normally when a society becomes so corrupt as the USA is, much like Rome, or say the Marcos regime or the Shah of Iran, their is a revolution. Not possible this time and NOT one I would like for the violence it brings. Hitler was actually voted in for a reason, POL POT took over for a reason.

This time, due to the extreme imbalance and being able to buy votes in the USA, re-write what anyone says, buy think tanks and even intitutions and universities, it will take time but eventually the will of the people will prevail. A study post 1985 on 2100 or so votes done I think at Princeton saw the will of the pople and it ignored in 100% of the cases despite public support at times well over 90%. On the flip-side. corporate interest in the USA often the opposite, if the overall consensus was anything above 70% the vote ... irrespective of the public's wishes went to them.

Anyhow some of the muck in the USA this guy, a Uni professor ex decent public servant has covered .



Robert Reich is being nice. When you have for instance medical inflation at 5% then baby boomers retiring at 4 million a year, needing another 4% to be added to Medicare spending for the free over 65 medical cover and ... instead Trump actually tried cutting spending to pay for his tax cuts by 13% .... that is in effect a 22% CUT he tried to put in place. A *DEATH SENTENCE* ... All funnily enuf designed by Mr Munchin ex Goldman Sachs and Mr Cohn ex Goldman Sachs who paid himself 300 million prior to departing. I say funnily as both men are Jewish and whilst you may go oh ... thats anti whatever ... Martin Luther King called denial of healthcare the cruelest act one could inflict. he actually compared it to *cannibalism*. King of course, fondly remembered NOW, by the time they killed him was being attacked and marginalized for his views about something we here take for granted, a FREE HEALTHCARE system for all. Universal healthcare, not free, we pay for it .... but without medial care, you die slowly, painfully and in old age you spend 73% of lifetime healthcare costs. I dont know what to call Trumps and these clowns move other than the worlds largest DEATH SENTENCE. Of course the cuts did not pass, BUT ... the INCREASES to cover 4 million more, 2 million NET elderly totally reliant upon the system DID not passs and instead of a 22% CUT ... it was MERELY a 9% CUT.

Enuf ... time will sort them out, not prior to many many elderly Americans and funnily enough the vast majority are WHITE right now, about 80% v the overall racial Mix being 53% to 47%, the people desperate for help. the elderly who vote about 78% of the time verses a dismal number around 50% or less who vote, they voted and trusted a person who said, he would not cut it ... HE tried to ... he DID in effect by NOT allowing for 4 million more being added to the over 65's and needing their free Medicare.

Australia, it has little to do with, other than the inhumanity of these people and a

USA is NOT Australia and the sooner we put some distance between this mess and the antics of the rape of our tax system and being treated like an untouchable, the happier i will feel. We are AUSTRALIAN not American and we in Australia live in utopia. The people asking for higher taxes in the USA are merely asking for what we take for granted, that if you earn 10 million a year you PAY tax on it, once it goes over the top level its close to 50% TAX we pay !! In the USA, well they avoid it all.

Enuf, its not going to change our markets and our fate, if they choose to stomp on us, or anyone else, such as they have done via actions against Canada , Germany and we missed the tariff bullet by a  whisker, its got nothing to do with anything other than ... going YES MASTER .... What can I bring you master.

It is time, time for a new outlook and maturity for our nation. Time to tell the bully to get stuffed and the EU is NOT happy one little bit with this nutter.

Watch the U tube. I note with dismay, the USA officially takes 3.5 billion in lobbyists funds each year, another 3.5 billion in other donations they spread around and don't advertise, so democracy is up for sale. How someone and in fact 3 of them took away seats like AOC on bugger all is ... funny. Bernie even winning in some states all 55 counties in once state, the electoral college vote in  the Primary backed Hillary Not Bernie .... so its going to take some time and the wankers I dealt with in Davos were not amused with some of my answers. Let alone Bill Gates, he will not even be my friend anymore on Facebook !!

AOC a story about her, 29. LAtino, from a protectorate of the USA with 3 million people but NO representation in the USA government, called *Puerto Rico, *she despite her age, is no dummy or wallflower. She is POOR, was poor and has been attacked from pillar to post by the media but more so via right wing Nazi FOX NEWS ... anyhow, she has been told her clothes look expensive and so on and so forth. She responds via twitter and various media outlets. One dress she wore prior to being elected, one she was attacked AFTER being elected as it being too nice for a poor girl was given to her by some volunteer who door knocked for her and SHE got it from a Thrift store, basically Vinnies and  AOC actually told the story about the bloody dress 12 months before being attacked for it looking too expensive for her supposed background. So ... *she did not tell me this* ... As I said I have followed her and modern media can and is a soapbox for some, lots of nutters out there ,,,, but its also a record you cant take back. Well you can if your Trump .... claiming I didn't say that ... when he is on TV having said the exact thing, people, are NOT stupid and when your literally working your arse off but getting no where, eventually things change.

Normally via revolution, this time hopefully without the violence. Time is up for the 1%, time sadly is also up for the USA. I do hope the EU and a block of nations steps into the void as leaders. EU of course has its own issues and getting back 2% of GDP stolen via Apple and others is a start.


Enjoy
Mark K
*
Robert Bernard Reich* is an American political commentator, professor, and author. He served in the administrations of Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. He was *Secretary of Labor from 1993 to 1997*. He was a *member of President-elect Barack Obama's economic transition advisory board*.


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## kahuna1 (5 February 2019)

Oh well.

that was a short silence ... firstly, Iron Ore keeps being bid up, so even FMG gets dragged along.

Royal commission was, well. a joke. Expecting something, given the extreme weakness in banks of late, out come the report with, NOTHING. So whilst cautious into it, and kicking myself at the peaks today for being so cautious, I just couldn't help myself and gave what I had back. When Westpac is up over 10% off its lows and into mid range, in a single day or 36 hours, its time to pause. Not far behind for ANZ.

Whist nothing directly against banks, ASIC has been given a very clear mandate to prosecute, not dilly dally around. THe report, written clearly by a bloody lawyer was, sadly silly. One hand, to get a financial planner jump through more hoops when they have already what is a masters in Accounting is silly. Doing it to other advisors, well whilst welcome. and overdue, the delay and allowed time is on one hand silly. Other side, is that if you want advice, NOW, there is not going to be any decent advice around and in this making the tasks for awful performing bigger funds who are shocking to keep doing thier rubbish.

Mortgage brokers, bloody hell, same thing, makes it easier for banks in the end taking them out and trailing commissions to be replaced with what. Essentially virtually every mortgage broker, share broker and yep, there are some decent ones, they a ll are thinking about becoming truck drivers. Not really a good thing for anyone. New rules on rural loans, will I suspect either add to the cost of them massively or dry up whats available. Again not a great thing.

In the meantime, I suspect a very dark cloud over the banks despite a get out of jail free for now. The pressure is ON and will I suspect make them all blink when eventually one of the many things goes to court, its going to cost a lot more than ever before in fines. Again, not obvious but when you set up layers and layers of new bureaucracies and new rules on top of a mountain of new paperwork already needed, its NOT a good thing. Its a bad thing.

Having at various times held most of the licenses and holding the correct qualifications and so on, the amount of paperwork doubled in the last 5 years for someone trying to advise you on investing or super. Its now about to double again. What sadly was starting to emerge prior to this mish mash, was investors given advice turning around and making their advisors lives hell even when best advice was given. Sometimes stocks actualyl go DOWN.

In the end, the old advice that will be given wil lbe general advice, non specific advice and for someone not well versed in portfolios or diversification of risk and long term goals, a negative outcome is virtually assured whilst getting rid of, YES the crooks ... about 10% of them. Not a thing done about shitty super funds that are merged into others and cover the woeful performance of the fund manager. Similar on the excessive fees they charge verses very poor performance. I have npo issue paying 2% if the fund outperforms the market by 4%. In effect, 1% of it is costs and the other 1%, it about 20% of the NET 5% ,,, minus 1% so 4% out performance.

If they linked the fees to performance verses a benchmark, well, that would have been amusing.
What actually did amaze me about the Royal Commission is whilst ALlianz got a well deserved smack, and legal nightmare, their actions in Workers Compensation are far far worse than any case they heard. Then again. Workers Comp is state run ....

The other big missing thing, being an old FX boy is FX !! The rates the banks get away with today verses 20 years ago are TRIPLE the spread. Instead of the AUD being at 0.7220 and being able to buy USA at say 0.7170 or LESS than 1% BELOW the actual spot rate, todays ripoff rate for CBA ? Bugger me ... well RBA did not act so AUD was 0.7230 most of the day, its now 0.7280. Using the first at worst, one would EXPECT to any get zapped 1% so 0.7210 at worst !! OR this mornings rate so 0.7150.

Well ... hello MR RIPOFF CBA .... you suck, truly suck as does the dummy Royal commissioner.

https://www.commbank.com.au/personal/international/foreign-exchange-rates.html

It will change as time goes by ....
Here is a live FX rate link ...
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates

Todays Spot this morning at 0.7220 was met with CBA spot selling rate for USD ... 0.6947.

So you loose ... 0.0273 or 3.78% !!

What wankers these are, lets see what ANZ give us ? 0.6964  ... you MAKE ME SICK ....  NAB 0.6932

ARE THESE GREEDY PRICKS SERIOUS ? Of course they are, a low estiamte and an educated one, its collusion upon collusion between them and a MASSIVE PROFIT centre that sees a minimum of 125 million NET on the sale side and another 40 million crossing a 5% SPREAD when people try and sell foreign currnecy. SO one side, they CHARGE to get a card, or USA notes, SO NO real big cost. YES they may have to have the notes on HAND, but when your being given 30% of what you SELL at 5% HIGHER in fact selling notes is 0.7577 at CBA a *8.6% SPREAD* ....

So between the big 4 they make 3.8% on 125 million a day and then lets day 8% on 40 million when people sadly have to do the opposite. Wow, 3.2 million plus 4.75 so lets be 8 million a day, say 2335 days a year, a mere 1.88 billion and its ALL JAM MONEY. to get notes last time I was charged to add insult to injury $16- MORE ....

How the hell, this was missed, let alone the MONEY GOUGER rates on credit cards which most hover at 20% as they were when rates were 8% NOT 1.5%.

The end result should be a removal of the FX licenses of the Banks !! To get a decent rate, even on $10,000 is very hard, once you get to $100,000- you get one closer to reality. One might go, well the average is not a lot that is exchanged, and 3.8% on $1,000- is a mere $38-, Just multiply  it many times over and the average exchanged is closer to the $2,000 mark.

Oh well, whinge for the day. For now, banks were on fire, Suspect, as time goes on and some more stuff added to WHAT is new, the shine will soon slow down. One hand, great dividends and hence why I owned them, but, vulnerable in the extreme due to gouging on credit cards and exchange rates and various other high margin products.

Not about to chase this one higher, the banks, and will let the dust settle with Donald and his speech tonight which, is a WHO CARES .... and suspect some behavior that IS NOT NORMAL during it. Usually its clapp clap clap and being that old, I remember the first time they did standing ovations, this time maybe the Democrats kneel !! I was thinking maybe they walked out when he gasbags on the state of the Union. *NO JUST KNEEL* .... in protest, over his rubbish.

Things are getting more polarized over there every day.

Take care
Mark


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## satanoperca (6 February 2019)

Hi K,
Who uses the banks to transfer money, would have to have rocks in ya head, as you have mentioned, there spread is b---lshit in the digital age.

I transfer money twice monthly to 2 different countries, I generally pay a 1% spread which is acceptable and $15 processing free regardless of the amount (think the bank charges $35)


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## kahuna1 (6 February 2019)

Hi Satanoperca ... or Satans perch ... 

Well, sadly,

A lot of people do. Of course there are much much better avenues to get notes and even close to the spot rate. I accept this, sadly most who use credit cards, or go to the bank, and expect a fair deal get buggered.

I note today, as expected the banks a bit off the boil. I do think we are facing a very long road of litigation v the banks. Almost a total destruction of mortgage brokers, similar with investment advisors and even highly qualified financial planners. *The latter have an undergrad and post grad degree* !!

I still think banks are a buy, especially in the wake of the RBA head speaking for the first time in 21 years in Sydney. Macro economic wise, we are slowing a bit along with China and the rest of the world. As such, rates on hold for some time.

I hope for some more retracement for the banks and just buy them back at 2,3,4% lower levels irrespective of even a worst case scenario of multiple court cases, the bottom line will not be impacted too much. 

State of the Union highlighted the extreme polarization of the USA. We have over the next few weeks so much noise going on, that, I will go deaf if I listen. We have Korean madman meeting late Feb, China trade deal, which really means bugger all to anyone, then we have USA unlikely passing the bill to build a wall. Then when one thinks its all over, in March, the debt ceiling needs to be raised as the USA hits 22 trillion. I suspect a lot of fights.

State of the Union a disgrace, seriously a disgrace to minorities and wheeling out people who one COULD only stand and applaud was, what it was. Citing late term abortions, illegal in all states UNLESS the baby is either very unlikely to live or threatens the mother are a mere 1,200 out of 700,000 abortions. On and on it went, USA and D DAY ... whilst greatly appreciate their efforts and sacrifice, it was a delusional rewrite of history where USA on D-Day was 46% of the total forces and did not join the war till post Pearl Harbor. Another dig at EU and NATO and spending 100 billion more, between 28 nations with a GDP of 21 trillion is NOT EVEN THE INFLATION RATE .... its HALF of ONE percent or 0.5% !!

I was reminded More of a Hitler rally than anything else. USA USA rah rah rah .... these billionaires are so seriously delusional that it  astounds me. Announcing 500 million to beat USA childhood cancer, whilst anything is GOOD .... when your healthcare is 3 times the cost of ours, and your 15 times the size, lets adjust the number ..... it was 11.11 Million or BUGGER ALL ....

Nope all eaten up by the Republicans and whilst, in the meantime, Rome crumbles.

Sorry, but things ARE changing and I was proud to see the women in WHITE the Democrat Women, its going to take some time to undo what is a seriously delusional state of affairs.

have fun
Mark K


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## satanoperca (6 February 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> *The latter have an undergrad and post grad degree* !!



I wonder what % of people who ask for advice for investment of x10 years earnings, average house in Melbourne and Sydney if the FA/broker has any qualifications other than a wheaties pack. I suspect sweet f---k all. 

As for the USA, all great societies fail at some time, as history has shown.


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## kahuna1 (6 February 2019)

Hmm ..

well a good financial planner, a good investment in a good fund ... and returns of a mere 2% MORE than the average and you will have 100% more in retirement. Most, if not  90% of people fail to do anything till they are say 55 or 60 and by then, altering the outcome is often impossible. some of the messes I have seen and expectations of a 55 year old with a mere 75k in super thinking they can retire age 65 at 50 k a year are sad.

The BEST ... person to go to is a financial planner at say age 35 and to periodically say every 2 years, go and spend a few hours revisiting your plan. Easier said than done. Also the tendency is for people to panic when they SHOULD BE BUYING .... I don't mean some crappy announcement comes out and you buy, RUN ... but when a good stock falls out of favor, for little or no reason, its time to buy. Our market of late and for the last 10 years has been besieged by the government basically taking more and more from banks, more and more from others and making rules that make things difficult. That said, the opposite also occurs. When a stock goes to stupid levels, its time to trim or take the money. This of course ina super environment but also if you have it for over 12 months. Selling say banks at their previous highs of $31-32 ... or TLS which astoundingly went to over $6- same thing .... 

Hardest of all, is to BUY into a doom and gloom market. BUY quality, NO specs, ones with a long long history and BUY slowly expecting something idiotic to occur and panic to go further.

All of this goes against logic.

As to the USA, yep empires fall and rise, China with more retail sales than the USA is not a suitable leader, India soon to pass the USA in GDP terms, say in 15 years, same thing. Whilst USA has been good, its actions via the theft of tax and oligarchy to overseas and its foreign policy has as Martin Luther King pointed out over 50 years ago, a lot to answer for. 

Interesting times, when the USA can and does not support the lower 80% , denies basic healthcare and even a decent wage, times will change and swing likely over time to something close to Sweden and Norway. It will take time and whilst I am amused by France getting 600 million in back taxes from one of the tech monsters, its less than 10% of what has been avoided in the past 10 years. 

With 30% of GDP collected and healthcare spending is 20% of GDP and a mere 70% effectively covered, with the lower 30% having either NONE or cover that is worthless and requires co-payments of insane amounts from the poor, the motivation is there for change. We have NO idea, none of how far they have shredded what USA was even in 1980.

Oh well, time will sort it out, but too late for 80 million of the 100 million baby boomers.

Cheers

Mark K


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## kahuna1 (3 March 2019)

End of thread on my part, thanks for your thoughts.

Cheers


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## kahuna1 (19 April 2019)

Howdy.

Was going to give up .... worked a few things out, about the internet ....

Will be posting a few things now and again on MACRO side and things that make markets overall move ...

This from another thread ... on Leverage ... it contains a view about USA market and its likely to keep going up ... FOR NOW ... say 3,150 on the S+P 500 ... but has issues. ...


Anyhow

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Leverage is a tool.

One that is akin to using a bulldozer in a confined space. An expert can do this, a not so expert person will destroy everything. *As a rule, margin is to be used even for very experienced well disciplined traders or investors at less than say 50% margin overall*. Even at that level, holding 200% of shares verses equity, should be ONLY short term and exceptional circumstances if you want to survive longer term.

A leverage for a portfolio at say 25% MORE or 125% or even 150% gives you a better chance and playing this off against returns IS a good thing. As happens, periodically markets correct and being invested at 200% at the wrong time, will occur if one is NOT adverse to leverage at extremes. NOT just our market extremes but WORLD market extremes. Australian equities are irrelevant in driving long term direction of global markets. USA is approaching 3 times, or 300% of the GFC lows, DOUBLE the highs of the PRE GFC period. DOUBLE. If we applied this to our market, ignoring other things, we should be at an ASX 200 of say 9,500 to 13,000- so lets say 11,000 verses 6,300. We have and WILL and do under-perform the USA as does the rest of the world, for some very good reasons.

The things that MAKE markets and equities MOVE are quite simple on the MACRO side. Interest rates, on the fiscal side and goverment spending and taxes on the other. USA has decided NOT to pay for its elderly, pay for pensions, pay for healthcare and as such its now, 10 years after the GFC in a supposed recovery, running a deficit to GDP in spending of 4% of GDP. It is in itself on of the largest deficits ever run in the past 150 years outside of the GFC or say WW2. It is ignoring its debt level, the world is ignoring its debt level and when a taxpayer has $200,000- per tax payer DEBT ... and it does need to be serviced and the lower 80% of taxpayers have an income of a mere $35,000- PRE tax and $31,000- POST tax and social security, owing $200,000- and even servicing at 2% a $200,000- debt or $4,000- is being ignored FOR NOW.

Perspective, and a very long term one is needed for any portfolio. We In Australia seem to have an idiotic fiscal concept that a BUDGET SURPLUS is needed. On one hand EU and Australia as life itself went from 72 years in 1980 tp close to 84 years so too did the RISING cost of living medically and pension wise and TAX verses GDP went UP by 2% or sso. It ROSE ... to cover pensions and super and so too medical care. USA which operates on what is good for the 1% it FELL ... and FELL sharply. It went from 35% PLUS of GDP to 30%. The awful, sickening impact of this is NOT being as per normal fuller reported, but what is, is a disgrace and life expectancy instead of as it was in 1980 being close to number one, is NOW officially 78.6 years but clearly, easily 75 at best. Of course the top 1% even 20% can afford the worlds most expensive healthcare, bugger the rest and one side lives to 90 or so and the other is fast approaching 65 years.

Tax in the USA has fallen from 35% even 36% of GDP to 30%. Australian and EU and most others its risen by 2% of GDP and here,including super as one must its at 38% of GDP and EU around 40% of GDP.

Margin and leverage, is RELEVANT to the very big long term picture. USA is here also due to its actions into the GFC and it DOUBLED its debt in dollar terms, clearly has no intention to repay it, let alone service it and if one party stays in will cut what was free medical care to over65;s which is NOW not free and costs 20k per year for over 65's even further. Quite a sick display of human greed verses the needs of the many.

It will, obviously change at some stage and USA will ... get universal free or low cost healthcare. Either 2020 or 2024 will start the ball rolling. Either that, or outright revolt as even the most red blooded GOP party person crosses the lines even now for better healthcare. The impacts it will have on the healthcare industry in the USA where they see fit to charge 3,4,5 times the cost and the similar impact on healthcare provider sand insurers where a mere hospital bed costs 500% the EU average is obvious.

Other factor as to WHY in the USA ... is up here is two fold. One is it had interest rates at ZERO for a very long time. Every law about finance and lending below inflation, out the window. EU is following and still there, but it was LATE to the game for its bonds and endured, despite a much better 40% of GDP int axes, it was paying 2-3% MORE for debt verses a nation which collected bugger all tax.

Interest rates at zero ... dividends at 3% or 4% ... is a massive stimulus.

Second factor is tax theft ... evasion, avoidance and Australia, we clearly loose 30 billion easily seen in tax theft. We have laws, ignored, we are changing them and will do so ... the money FLOWS ... on the main to the USA. Gelncore os Swiss and one of the biggest evaders, but then we have oil companies, USA based, and the tech group where Microsoft with 3.6 billion sales books 3 billion via Bermuda and misses 10% GST let alone a profit margin over 25% and pays virtually no income tax.

Again big things, relevant if your going leveraged that MUST and WILL change mid term in say 5-10 years.

Lastly and perspective again, ignoring madness ... for 100 years the USA equity market traded in the 40% of GDP region. YES 40% of GDP .... two world wars, a few minor ones, good times and bad, but 40% of GDP. It NOW approaches as it did in 2000 .... a 125% of GDP level and in 2008 or late 200 that WAS the reality ... 125% of GDP until the goverment stepped in and prevented a fall in GDP of 1930-33 size.

USA equities are trading close to 300% OF The long term averages. WE are NOT ... but still inflated a fair bit as is the rest of the world.

If your going to use margin ... think about it !!

Perspective ... and very long term is needed in times of madness.

*USA is LIKELY to go higher, short term*, despite the long term perspective and its just a cautionary tale. Reason being is again linked to MACRO side and USA just cut its taxes and ignored its 99.99% of people and tax collected went from 17.5% on profits for companies to 7.5% ... despite the headline tax being now 21% verses 35%, GREECE had woeful tax collection and massive avoidance, USA makes it look like a novice. The 21% company tax rate is incompatible with HUMAN life, and whilst 35% headline rate was irrelevant when only HALF that was being collected on profits, instead of the loopholes being closed .... and the fall in collections being not a lot, it IS NOT the case.

Short term, USA I would like it to kiss say 3,150 on the S+P 500 in its madness. So that's still some ways away. But, eventually a more fair healthcare system will evolve, some USA sector are DOOMED profit wise when this occurs. But till then .... the top end dictates.

Buffet and his situation, he made or outperformed PRE 2000 via a good fundamental analysis of values of stocks. These stocks were valued at times close to 25% of GDP .... verses here at say 120% pf GDP one is 5 times CHEAPER than the other. His money I might also add is made up via 75% of it, his wealth, by NOT PAYING TAX. The companies he has his main investments in ? The largest tax evaders such as APPLE and Goldmans. Of course it legal in the USA, not really what they do raping the rest of the world and paying no tax .... but such is life.

This like most things cannot go on. Free trade does not mean rape the tax system of other nations and these are private companies .... greedy ones who need a few CEO's to spend time in jail.

Leverage here ? Well ... I have an interesting background and long term perspective. I would of course urge extreme caution. It would as experience tells me be wasted breath. Investing and trading is where someone makes a profit on a stock, or even a loss and more likely a loss, and they become an expert.

Back into my hole .... just be cautious, or think about perspective. Less than 50% .... say 150% ... I could live with ... 200% borrowing half ? Risky and oh and DIVERSIFY ..... or perish. Buffet himself gets it VERY VERY wrong despite 60 years plus in the industry. His pre GFC buys were trashed to the tune of a zillion or so total loss .... TOTAL loss.

Not a fan of the person ... his act and support of the system which has seen the loss of life is, what it is.


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## kahuna1 (20 April 2019)

Some thoughts on investing and trading from another thread,

Just will put it here.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Some quick thoughts on trading or investing, two different things but similar rules.

Prior to psychology, trading and even investing some things are needed. One does NOT self treat a brain tumor, or a tooth cavity. Trading is an art.

Many different ways to trade. Different styles, objectives and so on. As a person who started as a trainee dealer in 1983, some things change, and others, are the same.

*Without an edge, an advantage OVER the market*, trading for a living or investing is NOT something, in my opinion that most should do. Whether that edge be via technical side, charts ... or Fundamental side, via valuation, or by a larger MACRO side, bottom down look at the whole market, WITHOUT an edge, it makes life and investing likely a loss.

*Stick to what you KNOW*. Not what you think you KNOW, WHAT YOU KNOW and understand. Not some idiotic conspiracy theory or view about where Uranium is going to $200- a lb next week.

*Admit defeat EARLY and without remorse*. Taking a loss, if necessary, but learning why you were wrong if necessary. *NO REVENGE trading !*! 

*Diversify*, and this idiotic view by Buffet shared of late NOT to diversify, is, well, just stupid. HE CAN ... buy the whole company and prefers to do so. YOU CANT, and as such, without the resources or experience to see the whole picture, unable to CONTROL the company eventually, without diversification in shares to some extent and putting all your eggs in one, or two or three baskets, the likely hood of a massive draw-down are MASSIVE. Companies don't tell the truth quite often, the CEO is often NOT there for shareholders but themselves, and his job either way, honest companies alike, the CEO will and DOES present a best case 90% of the time so it may be in serious trouble and you .... YOU will be the last to know.

*Too much Diversification, is IDIOTIC*. There is a happy medium between the two and buying an index hugging fund where your buying all the stocks including the DOGS ... ones on fire and unlikely ever to be the value the share is right NOW, is again, after fee;s likely and always going to leave you BEHIND the overall market. IF it were shares, 12-20 is enough in my view to take a hit on the chin where one, or two hit a loss of 25% and you take it, even prior to NEWS coming out. That loss is 25% RELATIVE to the index. You may be the last to know the company has massive issues and if a share moves in the opposite direction to the index overall, your bloody wrong. If they admit their are fleas, EXIT because their is likely fleas and ticks. 

If you HAVE an edge, and your stupid NOT to ...* STICK TO IT LIKE GLUE*. Why the hell would you give UP an edge you have over the overall market ? Most don't have an edge, most when they do, give it up, doing stupid things, buying into peaks and doubling up as it STARTS to fall as opposed to buying into TERROR. *BUY into END OF THE WORLD .... sell into Tulip season*. 

*Stop loss, stop loss and stop loss. *

I could go on, but the psychological side, most fail at and temperament is key. Greed and FEAR are battles one wages, so too ego and stupidity. 

Have fun 

Mark K


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## kahuna1 (24 April 2019)

Light reading ...

I find these better sources and I suppose the top few ... I tend to read.

News ... research ... *and FREE* ... 

https://www.reuters.com/theWire

Reuters better than most ..

https://abnormalreturns.com/

the weekly most read often has GEMS ....
NOT the daily its more rubbish. The weekly out Sundays gets rid of idiotic at times daily links.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
The morning links often good contents from all sources

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/
Real Markets ... a LOT of sources ... it sifts, does not contain too much rubbish and lots of sources.

Yep mainly USA ... but .. our market is driven via them.

Of course the Fin Review here ... Wall st journal ... SMH and Australian and then you have a decent reading list. Australian ones via APP and phone saves buying 3 kg of paper a day. 

Enjoy


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## PZ99 (24 April 2019)

*Australian share market climbs to 12-year high*
By business reporters David Chau and David Taylor



The Australian share market has climbed to its highest level in almost 12 years, since before the global financial crisis.

Morning gains were boosted by worse-than-expected inflation figures, which raised the likelihood that the Reserve Bank may announce an interest cut in the next few months.

The consumer price index was flat during the March quarter and up 1.3 per cent over the past year.

This also lowered the Australian dollar by almost a per cent to 70.35 US cents by 12:15pm, which boosted export-exposed companies on the ASX.

The local market's strength also follows an exuberant lead from Wall Street — which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record levels on Tuesday (local time) due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings from major US companies.

At 11:55am (AEST), Australia's benchmark index, the ASX 200, had jumped 1.1 per cent to 6,389.

The broader All Ordinaries index rose by a similar level to 6,477 points.

These indices have not traded at such levels since July 2007 and November 2007 respectively.

Most sectors are pushing higher, with health care and technology among the best performers, up 2.4 per cent each.

The tech sector has been boosted by WiseTech Global (+4.7pc), Afterpay (+3.7pc) and Appen (+3.2pc).

On the flipside, materials (-0.7pc) is the weakest sector thanks in large part to a sharp drop in gold miners New Hope Corporation (-3.5pc), Syrah Resources (-2.1pc), Independence Group (-2.5pc) and Western Areas (-2.1pc).

The big miners also sustained losses, including Fortescue Metals (-1.3pc).

BHP and Rio Tinto had earlier fallen sharply, but have since trimmed their losses to 0.1 and 0.2 per cent respectively.

*Market slide is inevitable*
However, investment titans have warned that this may be as good as it gets, and are already preparing for what they see as the inevitable downside.

"We are certainly in the late stage of the longest cyclical expansion that we've seen in recent memory," BlackRock managing director and head of sustainable investing Brian Deese said.

"I think we're seeing a number of predictable late-stage dynamics.

"The question that everyone's trying to grapple with is 'at what point, and in what context, will we see this expansion begin to slow down?'"

Mr Deese, who is based in the United States, told the ABC's PM program that BlackRock is positioning itself "defensively" — which is market speak for building a kind of investment fort.

"The kinds of things that people need to be thinking about at this point in the business cycle is how to build defensive elements into your portfolio," he said.

Mr Deese worked in the White House, under former President Barack Obama, as a senior advisor for climate and energy policy, helping to negotiate the Paris Climate Agreement.

He is convinced the safest way for longer-term investors, such as those with superannuation, to preserve the wealth they have built up over the past decade is to park money in low-carbon industries.

He describes the positive returns investment firms are already receiving from their so-called green investments as a "mega-trend".

"It is going to play out and have a big impact across industries over the next three, five, seven, 10 years.

"And so you want to have a view on the pace and the impact of the global transition to a low-carbon economy, and you want to be thinking about how to integrate those insights into your portfolio."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-24/asx-australian-share-market-12-year-high/11042236


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## kahuna1 (24 April 2019)

From MFG thread ...

a View of the USA side of things ...



kahuna1 said:


> And there she blows ...
> 
> S+P 500 up near all time highs ... $42.50
> 
> ...




What drives markets ... is pretty simple ... interest rates, goverment fiscal side and that CAN be deficit spending which USA is spending close to 5% of GDP in deficit even NOW in 2019 ...

Hence the valuation ... overall at 1929 and 200 levels and ... if one took out the support given to the USA banking side post say MErrill and others loosing all their capaital, at 125% of GDP ....

I wish them luck overall.

But here at 2,940- and for some time, the target USA side has been 3,000 and in fact 3,125 for ME ... despite being a cat on a hot tin roof for many reasons. History repeats itself.

Our market today on low CPI numbers took off. As it did yesterday playing catch up to the USA and its rise to some extent.

Whilst not really expecting too much in terms of a lowering of rates here, and caution and ammo in the RBA's tool kit I suspect may give them pause lowering, we clearly are in a low inflation environment and for some time.

Conversely to the USA we are about to run a surplus ... Fiscal side and idiotic new taxes to punish the stock market likely to emerge post election. WHY are we balancing our budget when GDP is say 2.5%and inlfation at 1.5 % and our debt, NET debt is at 33% of say USA and most EU nations ?

Can we strangle the cat any more ? Both Liberals and Labor seem to think we get a reward for it.
We can still run a deficit of say 2% and total GDP in dollar terms rises by 2.5% growth plus 1.5% inflation and STILL the DEBT to GDP ratio will fall by 2% !!!

USA is running full tilt as stimulus ... ignoring a $200,000 debt per tax payer, and the median of the lower 80% is $32,500 NET income, so paying even 2% interest the money  ... well cannot be taken from them.

Quite different here, different type of LA LA ...

For now, hoping for that last leg up ... above 3,000 in the S+P 500,* MY target around 3,125 .... on the S+P*  and its irresistible to them, a target at 3,000 they can spank and sing USA USA USA  ...

Sadly, when your NOW collecting 7% of profits in tax v 17.6% ... a mere 2 years ago .... and close to 30% pre 2000 .... so now the healthcare of the USA outside the top 20% is ... I don't care.

They will, and time takes care of these things with a lesson in history, not that its ever learnt.

Historical Amnesia rules the day as we approach 125% of GDP valuation of USA stock markets. It was a very good idea ... adjusting for 2007 REAL value before the USA fed purchased 4 trillion in swamp paper ... it was a good idea in 2000 ... and even a better idea back in 1929.

USA USA USA ... rah rah rah


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## Knobby22 (24 April 2019)

Inflation figures came in lower than expected.
Rate cut is now more likely and may even occur before the election.
Lower interest rates mean higher share prices.


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## JM12 (24 April 2019)

hey Kahuna, how do you come to the top of the s&P around 3125?

btw I've been reading your posts for years and have learnt a lot.  In all seriousness, I know you're an absolute master when it comes to the market, seen you pick the tops and bottoms with a high hit rate for the last 10+ years.


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## kahuna1 (24 April 2019)

I wish ... 

No one is a master.

I run three models, one macro economic/ valuation based and 125% of GDP on valuation is ... well ... where it stopped a few times in 2000 ... adjusting 2007 ... 1929 ... 

Second is one the chartist will love, a smart form, of the toys they use. Basically learns and tries not to get ahead of itself. This level, 125% of GDP ... is somewhere around 3,050 ... but not so accurate ... technical wise or one not using a single chart, is BETTER .... but technical in nature has a meeting of a whole load of things at around the 3,150 level. *BIG THINGS* .... and the next stop ... a bridge too far.

*Cant* see for instance, the rich being able in the USA to drain any more wealth out of the lower 80% which has seen the wealth in say 1980 ... for the lower 80% at 25% ... not a great share ... go to what is 9% NOW. Shocking and a non functioning middle class.

It cant, by definition GO to 150% .....  up much more. Or it can, if one has a lot of stupid pills and it can occur, but unlikely for the third ingredient.

Thats the hard one to define. 2007, late 2007 I spent months talking about ... a 40% correction, got it almost to the day .. and quantum ones as I said one has to change as the goalposts change so t.he bottom was 56% off the top ... . something tipped the MACRO side and LOGIC side way over ;ate 2007. Merrill declaring 5 years of losses,  and then total destruction of capital .... and holding the same  paper as every other bank and investment bank, whilst they did not report ANY loss ... lied essentially even late 2007   .... well ... they were in deep kaka and until they admitted it, and Paulson a crook from Goldmans now admits as treasury secretary he bluffed his way through .... BLUFFED ....  he was and is such a pig. 

It tipped the other thing way over the edge, my final model .... USA was declaring 5% GDP growth ... whilst likely 50% of their total banking sector was BROKE ... it sure tunred out that way in 2009 when they had to enter and BUY everything but 56% lower.

Today ... touched on the underlying debt side which has percolated along ... whilst USA attacks other nations over credit issues. 

They abandoned their poor and their pensions as the baby boomers retired age 65 so 2011. slashed funding per person on medical care for the old ... all to give CEO's and rich in the USA a tax cut.

This, imbalance either ends in 2020 or 2024. USA pays too much for healthcare, rich pay no tax, companies rape the USA let alone what Apple does to Australian tax and other nations. Microsoft, Exxon, facebook and so on.

All are being VALUED on a tax system that ignores 99% of the USA and screw the rest of the world.
So sure .... we go to 125% of GDP ... for the USA stock side and 3,150 or so ... which is exactly the same on the technical side  ... and THIS side ...

It has to change. EU is enforcing draconian proposals to get people like Bill Gates to PAY TAX ... he and Buffet via his companies and Google and the lsit goes on. We have similar things happening here. SO instead of paying 1% tax, on profits, or 7% in the USA ... Australia SHOULD just go ahead with its plan to make it a criminal offense to deliberately evade and steal. It has for now, a law just in ... a 40% tax rate penalty and STILL they are not playing.

Bottom line NO nation can afford to have 1-2% of its GDP stolen off it .... via unpaid taxes which are a fraction of that, so loosing 10% of the tax you collect because Gates wants to fund a vaccine that crippled 7-,--- Indians or fund abortion clinics, is ...  what it is.

USA and its majority WANT universal healthcare .... want a pension they paid into for 50 years ... and its a whole pile of rubble that is in extreme danger. SURE the USA stocks go up. OF COURSE they do itf you pay 7% tax verses 17% what happens to NPAT  ? **** it surges .... and the stock looks great. Meanwhile, healthcare ... still running at 6% inflation and costs $5k for a day in hospital there ... a doctor in a normal practice spends 30% of their day speaking with the insurers who refuse to pay ... 

A lot of things, MUST change. Either in 2020 or 2024. Too late to save the baby boomers from being bankrupted in their old age paying for medical cover, till it runs out.

This, well .... peculating as it has been for a long time, now reaching total boiling point. FOX reports all is well ... in fact USA media wants to elect either TRUMP again if your Fox news or some OBAMA clone and he ... OBAMA was if anything worse than George W ...  again, and as always comes down to money. Political donations and lobby groups DICTATE ... or USED to who or whom was elected in the USA.

2018 was a very rude shock ... AOC and a group not funded by lobby groups, the top 1% or CEO;s won LANDSLIDE ... against sitting members and ... without being crooks. People have no idea what its like to go to the doctor and be told your excess is $1,000- on those tests, or as the Kaiser group study of 6.2 million found ... 2000 - 2016 .... 6.2 million cancer patients ... 2 years latter WERE BANKRUPT ...

Its how bad things are.

Maybe it goes past 2020, but I suspect NOT ... even if the poll as say in AOC, the young female democrat from Queens Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she actually give a damm about her people as do the other 6. Well pre voting day, she was meant to loose by 10% , she won, by 8% .... either one a landslide as elections go. 

In 2020, I suspect there will be 200 PLUS of her type and I do hope the Democrats, who are as pathetic as Trump ... corrupt as him ... actually have Bernie as their nominee. Either that or 2024 ... they WILL form another bloody party. No use in electing another specimen like Obama who, well as you know I was agog at ... his weak weak weak corrupt ways having CLOWNS from Goldmans just like Trump ... and back to 1990 even 1980 ... this has to STOP ..

Bottom line .. its that old merry go round ... the one in 2007 that plays at times like this. The Horses removed and replaced with spikes ... that go up and down !!

Impacts of USA going universal healthcare, despite what idiots at Fox say is that say Insulin costing $600- in the USA will now cost ... $150 as it does here, and in Canada and Mexico. Hospital beds at 5k a day verses overall cots 20% of that here ?  MRI at $1250 in USA .... $200 here. Some Republican claimed people go to the USA for healthcare from overseas !! With a life expectancy ... a REAL one at 75 verses the official fiction ... and YOU if your read my stuff know how I LOVE pulling apart statistics ... why the hell would someone go to the USA ... for medical care that costs 3 times as much ... and you die 8 years sooner than AUSTRALIA or Canada ? 

A lot of other things go into this third secret ingredient ... or not so secret. Being able to pull the stats apart so methodology is the same in EU nations as the crap USa produces is ... as always alarming and helpful.

The lower 80% in the USA are, financially being screwed in the extreme and an at best health cover of 70% is, well ... the worlds largest Genocide EVER .... via denial of cover. then again it hits 99% of Blacks and Latinos, and Native Americans and then stupid white people ... sadly NOT the correct stupid poor white people ... 

This, well ... MACRO economic model and going back over history as to WHAT drives markets ... is  what one has to look at. 
Interest rates, then Fiscal policy via spending and deficits and surplus ... then ... taxes and specific taxes can destroy sectors ... so too monetary restraints AIMED say at investment loans or margin lending ... same thing.

Then the usual stuff ... supply demand ... population growth, wars, a good one wars. .. 

Time and time again. over history, empires rise and fall on how well they  treat the normal person. Not how they treat the top 1%.

Trump is NOT fascist, just ... another of the same. All be it pathological and Narcissistic. No conscience, no remorse ... and why say the Shah of Iran got kicked out ... or the Roman empire fell ... and 100 others over the centuries, same thing.

We live in utopia and at times I find both sides of our side painful. Our Libs are SO FAR LEFT .... LEFT of the DEMOCRATS in the USA its a joke. All they are asking for is a fair go, rather than ... enrich .. Bezos so he can have another affair and not pay tax as he just did over 3 years on 17 billion in profits and in fact got a 300 million tax refund.

Is there something wrong here ? Its worse even than Martin Luther kings time and things got better, for a while in the USA but far far worse ... as time has gone on. Not just African Americans, but any coloured person, Latino and poor white person is to be shunned.

Since 1965, healthcare has become slightly more expensive and life expectancy has gone from 65 to 84 ... but the USA which led the world or close to it, till 1980 ,,, is now number 86 out of 200 odd nations.

Impacts, and this cannot be understated .... TAX regime needs to change in the USA. They have no right and whilst their donations for NOW control the USA and basically both parties with a few exceptions, ITS ABOUT TO CHANGE .... a cycle I suppose.

Impacts ? Well ... what would be the profit of Apple if it paid tax ? Down 25% ... how about tax back to 2000 levels as is NEEDED .... down 50%. How will say USA drug companies go getting paid $150 for something they now charge $600 for because they can ? Health insurers overheads are around 22% and they ... well go 0ut the w0indow 0on the main. 

The proverbial nightmare tidal wave is ... as always there. This time, well ... its actually obscene to deny
 healthcare to the elderly and pensions from t hem ... whilst taxing corporations now at 7% verses 17%.

Before someone ... give me too much grief, on this site, if you have been reading me for a while, you likely KNOW my name, the real one. MUM is the word. 

Predicting this stuff, the future, as always, opinions till the passage of time has passed and your either right or wrong. Sorry ... tried explaining ... again ... the last ingredient is a tough one.

Oh and to the person predicting the RBA moves pre election, you may be right, I suspect if anything, EVEN if they DO ... very unlikely PRE election. Since our RBA is NOT run like the USA was, and still sadly is ... via Wall Street, these Macro things are what they look at and discuss. Use to sit next to My favorite economist on the RBA board ... once upon a time !!

For now, I suspect, hot air ... oh and plunge protection team .... IS STILL operating. If you have read my stuff . TRUMP wheeled them out late 2018 because the market corrected, as it does ... to a mere 133% of POST Trump getting in. Now, well its 160% ... its deficit is 4 trillion more ... its debt per capita shocking ... per taxpayer  even worse ... and consumer credit ... the nasty expensive stuff given to the DUMB outside the top 1% and you pay 10% if not 20% MORE ... in the USA is UP ... UP ... by nearly 1.8 trillion basically 33% of the LOWER persons wage ...

last but not least, things are going so well ... car finance loans hit an all time HIGH ... of arrears by 90 days or more. In fact 7 million in arrears in 2018 verses the old peak in 2010 ... after the GFC of a mere 6 million.

As per normal, there are few decent forecasting economists ... and I am not one of th em ... fewer still able to pull apart stats and correct methodology, but its whats needed to get even close to a clear picture.

But, the change in USA and its healthcare and taxes, either 2020 or 2024, and lets just say, companies will look like Dick Smith after-woods or say, PDN the $10- Uranium stock now at 15 cents. But that's 2020, I hope ... for the peoples sake ... the majority of them ... but 2024 either way. 

This is a long way off. Maybe, I am underestimating stupidity, but as you know even have a filter for that one. And it costs me nothing usually to take a pause. But sadly, I suspect, we breach 3,000 on the S+P, and keep going. Until, well ... that merry go round stops.

Take care and sorry for the ramble if it makes any sense ... that third bloody system, trying to describe it  ... when number one and number two scream .... along with number three ... it works and does work ... currency ... oil ... and index stuff. Not easy in this day and age ... due to deliberate buggering of valuations and its gone from bad to extreme the acts post GFC. 

Last model ... *needs a catalyst* ... to make it short ... to TIP the whole thing over, remove all chairs from the merry go round. Whilst I suspect its the destruction of the whole healthcare sector in the USA, it could be the rest of the world telling USA to get stuffed on their debt and want 3% MORE ... for it. Either will do and both are ... inevitable at some stage. Or massive change that totally alters valuation occurs ... collecting 40% of GDP instead of 30% like say every EU nation ... well ... companies will cry ... their earnings will crash and evaporate for the crooks ... charging and blackmailing with your life ... DRUGS ... or replacing operations with NO ... from the insurance company for a 100k operation, here is $500 worth of opioids, one  dulls the pain, two on a bad day .... forget that operation ... you dont get paid enough over 10 years to even save for it ... 3 pills and your off your face ... and 4 ... YOUR DEAD. Sad but USA healthcare in 2019. Even if you provide a suicide note, the USA CDC ... calls it a poisoning most of the time, as opposed to overdose or ...suicide. I kid you NOT !! Sad things these statistics.



Anyhow ... set my self up for ridicule as this site seems to love. Predicting the future ... hmm ... one tries for perfection but when goal posts move, as they DO and will ... models move and valuations move.

This one, is yet again, historical amnesia on the part of the greedy and corrupt.

Take care


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## kahuna1 (30 April 2019)

*Catalyst* 

Likely potential one .... this from another thread ... a few comments after it ... NOT immediate Catalyst but numerous time bombs that are likely to explode, whether via one way or another.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
As mentioned ...

two issues ... Not Mueller or Russia ... tax fraud ...  insurance fraud and so on ... New York state now has the banks records and tax records and is in the process of getting the insurance claims.

Second ... Impeachment. No Collusion with Russia ... never was going to occur. Trump did not arrange the Russian stuff ... he however was lying about his business dealings.

Obstruction ... and deliberate obstruction by Trump was in 10 cases in the report very clear.

Here is an impartial look at Trump V Nixon .... 


So do they impeach ? For obstruction and other crimes ? Possibly even knowing one house needs a 66% margin to IMPEACH and its unlikely. A president running for 2020 that HAS been impeached ... and say Clinton was found guilty of it in ONE house of the USA govt ... but the other did NOT pass the full impeachment ... it still sent a message.

Clinton at the time was serving his last .. second term and USA Presidents only allowed two terms. So the action against Clinton who was NOT able to run in the 2000 elections was an aside. In this case however, even knowing likely the Republicans will NOT roll over on trump even in the face of evidence he deliberately obstructed justice, the lower house MAY still decide to impeach.

IT IS NOT OVER >... 

The TAX and Insurance fraud cases at a state level in NY are crimes presidents cannot gove pardons for. Trump junior, Kushner and all his children and Trump himself likely to be charged.

Third.
There are now 21 states REFUSING to put a Presidential candidate on the ballot ... for 2020 and poised to pass into law, that a presidential candidate CANNOT appear on the ballot for a Federal election unless they have released TAX returns. 

Fourth
It has emerged the extent of Trump directing his cabinet and heads of departments to NOT produce or co-operate at all with any and all investigations. On the tax issue the House, with the power to request anyone's tax returns ... ANYONE ... Treasury secretary Munchin, ex Goldman Sachs, a disgrace his post GS actions and a bank that foreclosed on someone ... taking their house .... owing 27 cents was just one stunt, Munchkin ... refuses to produce as instructed by the HOUSE the tax return of Donald Trump.

I suspect, they may actually go so far as to jail him if it continues. 

I look for at times a catalyst for change, a catalyst for what drives markets and big directional moves. I have never seen stuff like this and was too young to follow Nixon on his antics back then.

Political hate, polarization of the USA is so extreme its absurd. With a white house person actually accusing a Muslin new representative of having something to do with a shooting at a Synagogue was another of the racist rants that come out of this place. I might add, the shooter, as with all mass hate killings in USA in 2018 and now 2019, was white, Nazi following, white supremacist idiot. Suggesting he was inspired by a Muslim when his dialogue included hating all people from both Jewish and Islamic faiths, is yet another example of Trump. He even went and mentioned another new fresh politician in the USA AOC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Hispanic and called her out for not expressing regrets over the attacks in Sira Lanka when they occurred. Turned out she was in Puerto Rico, visiting her grandmother and internet services STILL have not been repaired there 12 months after a Hurricane.

It is unlikely all of this, will be avoided by Trump. It is impossible for it to occur and whilst the Russian collusion was always unlikely, the obstruction that occurred and corruption in other activities uncovered remains OPEN and unlikely to get better as 2019 and 2020 elections occur.

This is just starting, the fun and games. 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

A few comments .... on cycles and catalysts,

The above has at least 5 time bombs if not more. If states introduce legislation removing Trump from 2020 ballot for NOT producing his tax returns. All hell will break loose.

Having the Treasury secretary arrested is NOT a good look.

NY state irrespective of this will proceed with Tax fraud, insurance fraud and banking fraud cases and Trump has NO power to obstruct or avoid.

...
As mentioned the plunge protection team that Trump reformed to my disbelief because the market had a correction late 2018, still continues. THEY must be kidding !!

In Trumps mind the value of the stock market is some voting tool ? Or popularity tool ?

Tax paid via USA corporate is 7.3% verses 17.6% on profits  in 2017. OF COURSE if you hand me another 10% in profit AFTER TAX ... and then strangle the Central bank, in this case the USA Fed ... and no more rises ... will occur as the New USA fed chief, is sitting in the corner sucking his thumb ...

But on valuation .... 10% more profit .... multiplied by a PE and its about 30% PLUS for stocks. 

Lets ignore the 22.7 trillion deficit and crumbling roads, crappy healthcare and half your pension.

Anyhow ... long term ... this tax cut ... verses even basic healthcare is inhumane ... but most effected are black, brown, old and sick and as such have no voice, until they vote.

Nothing immediate on the catalyst side, but so many time bombs race yet again verses greed and stupidity. 

Debt ceiling needs to be raised, again ... tick tick tick ./..

3000 on the s+p 500 a mere 2% from here !! 

I note the CPI the other week in the USA. At 2% ... and NO oil price rises seems to hit there, EVER ... ll the increased costs via TAXES called tariffs on 50% of stuff the USA imports from some place called China, never hit the CPI in the USA. Nothing new in this for USA, it needs to and has under-reported CPI for years, It need to do so to erode the NON saving for pensions and old age ones in Social Security. If you dont do a cost of livings adjustment, EVER ... to reflect real CPI and inflation ... and under report CPI as well, the REAL pension never adjusted to reflect say that CPI v real inflation or the version USA has produced post 2000 is 2% reported v actual over 3% or a gap of more than 1% . Each year if you erode a pension by 1% or closer to 1.5% ... in 20 years its 75% of what it should be.

I do have a point here. ...
How corrupt and how economically abusive the USA is to not only its own people but the rest of the world. Say bonds linked to inflation, if you under report it by the tune of 1%, whats 1% on 500 billion a year saved ? Tax wise, the USA and its non payment via its protected via political donation corporate ... and Apple paying tax at 3% here, ignoring 30% rate is a better one ... some just ignore we have a tax system here ... all together.

ON CPI ... my point ...

GDP came out last week. GDP is an adjusted for inflation number. I note, the CPI is well just BS in the USA ... but an aside ... its produced by the BLS department.

GDP by the BEA, Burea Of Economic Analysis. I have over the years pulled apart GDP reports since 1983, but at times, even they astound me.

So CPI, whether right or wrong ... 2% via the BEA itself last quarter or 1.9% ...  oil rising ... petrol prices rising and any chance of avoiding Chinese new more expensive goods gone as tariffs still in place and rising ... I would have expected say the BEA to have a similar if NOT HIGHER CPI measure.

In the GDP this measure is to adjust it to AFTER inflation and its called a deflator. So out comes the number, 3.2% GDP growth ... Turnip head goes on twitter ... greatest number ever ... well not quite .. but listened to idiot economist after economist and YEP I have qualifications as well as post grad ones, not a word of negativity .... so I looked.

My eyes burnt out, as is typical ... looking at how the USA corporate and oligarchy has taken over.
So what was the inflation number, remembering it was 1.9% for this department last quarter .... the other reporting department went oh its UP  and 2% v 1.9% NOW ....

Without cheating ... make a guess ? and remember if you report a LOWER CPI or inflation UP goes the GDP as its inflation removed, a NET after inflation growth.

How far ? Back in 2007 several things sent me over the edge. USA reported a 5% plus GDP growth when it was CLEAR, marking to market Merrill Lynch and Citibank bond holdings late 2007, THEY had lost all their capital. Back then, they moved the CPI or DEFLATOR down 2% plus  ... in a single leap ...  oh and a few other tricks pulling apart the report over 40 hours, import prices at $65- at the time for oil and export prices at $90 ...  much like now, but oil was going nuts, not as bad in 2019, but one gets the drift.

Anyhow .... deflator went instead of even a massive understating of inflation at 2% like the other department it went ... from 1.9% to 0.6% on a seasonal adjusted basis.

Markets react to headlines ... mostly so an aside ... but ... well the swamp of 2007 is back, with friends and interest owing. If one just used 2% GDP growth would be ... not 3.2% but 1.8% 

Things are NOT what they appear. I do have some serious issues with tax theft overseas voia USA based corporations and it being called USA GDP growth ... again, one of those ticking time bombs. Much like the one off boost to USA stock valuations, its a fantasy to provide health and welfare at 30% of GDP when the rest of the world does it at 38%of GDP tax, let alone the USA healthcare system costs 3 times ... # times MORE than anywhere else.

Not a catalyst as such USA producing fictional number is the NORM, its when efforts reach a crescendo and the underlying seems to be doing the opposite. In this USA debt is exploding as corporate pay at 33% the rate they did in 1990, It cant go on. Political nightmares all over the place. Polarization is extreme and rising as are the hate crimes and Trump stoking it.

Add to this, EU and others moving to REMOVE and make criminal actions of say Gates and Microsoft not paying 500 million and in fact 550 million in tax to say Australia every year. Booking sales via Singapore to avoid 300 million GST ... it is illegal. So too Google in this respect. ... let alone not paying tax on profits generated via sales here.... or EU nations.

Tick tick tick ...

Dont expect USA to change its tax laws ... its sadly too corrupt and driven via corporate donations and lobby groups and think tanks ect. EU and others will move ... and if so ... 30% of value if the USA did reverse its insane fiscal policy or late ... Eu moves and earnings are in the toilet for them. Halving I suspect it from here ... the S+P 500.

Fun and games. Oh and ... golly ... 2020 ... Universal healthcare if a democrat gets in ... well not Biden ... I syuspect he as he always does smells some woman and falls on his sword. Drug companies, health insurers, private hospitals charging $5,000- a day for a bed that costs say $800- . Insulin that costs $40- a vial to make, with retail and so on, $150- in 65 nations ... in the USA its $600- ...

They are my top few picks, but ... until then ... RALLY RALLY RAALLLLLY USA ....

3,000 it a magnet ... then again at over 120% of GDP valuation based upon a ot off tax theft. misery for the people inside the USA ... no healthcare and crashing life expectancy which ... again they report its falling but someone who gets to see the doctor 20% the rate of a Person in Peru ... Latino ... Peru with a great universal healthcare system ... supposedly according to billionaire running the department who produces the CDC numbers,,, in the USA without medicine they live 5 years longer by not seeing a doctor !!  

Never seen the likes of the insanity we have now ... one has to go to 1930's and Germany to come close. Tick tick tick .... for now just a deafening tick.


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## kahuna1 (7 May 2019)

Quick update ...

Well S+P hit a new high ... and I suppose it still goes up. We are however in 1929 and 2000 style valuations on the USA side. Still the 3,000 level irresistible and that road block of technical points at 3,150-75 ... and I might add 125% of GDP valuation  on the fundamental side.

Drivers still there and giving a tax cut ... increased overseas tax theft in the USA with tax on profits paid falling from 17.6% to 7.3% is astounding. Tax paid overseas a joke and even with a 13.125% discount tax rate and being able to claim tax paid to overseas govts against this, a mere 670 billion of unpaid profits was repatriated out of o0ver 4 trillion stolen from other nations.

NO impact on the USA corporate tax collections.

Whats new ?
Not much.
More hot air around Mueller reports and whilst clear obstruction occurred. It is irrelevant whether  crime occurred or not, obstructing an investigation is a crime ....
Tax issues ... Trump sues the bloody Federal govt to block release of his returns !! Are we living in the twilight zone ? Several of the Trump Execs in jail ... not just Cohen have given testimony and documents that show clearly CAUSE for requesting these documents. Tax fraud, insurance fraud and  bank fraud.

This case has no chance of standing up.

Barr the Attorney General Trump appointed clearly lied to the house, now refuses to appear. It is an aside and he refuses to release the unedited report to the House and they have the SAME if not better clearance for secret documents.

Going on, Mucnkin, Treasury secretary, ex Goldman Sachs .... ex owner of the bank that foreclosed on an 80 year old woman for a 27 cent unpaid debt and tried to take her house ... well he is refusing to  release Trumps tax returns ... again ... a legal fight.

What a lovely place.
Added to this ... Pompeo a cretin for a very long time and secretary of state got his wish and OFF goes an Aircraft carrier to Iran. Rhetoric out of his hole ... whoops mouth is astounding and disturbing. 9/11 I would point out occurred via 15 of the 18 being from Saudi Arabia and funded from there. Sadly, USA cant and will never admit Iran is more progressive in 2019 ... women are not persecuted in the streets ... Iran will never be forgiven for kicking out a despot they installed called the Shah of Iran and then  holding USA embassy staff hostage for a while.

Moving on ...
Iran Contra convicted war criminal who is now USA secretary for Venezuela ..  a guy who armed animals the contras, who took great joy in doing awful things, he is the Trump ambassador ? It is of course about USA interests and the fact the president they supported is now in jail for war crimes speaks volumes about this. Anyhow, the Koch brothers drive this one, and they still want their fertilizer factory back and with the only refinery around that can process the heavy oil Venezuela produces in great volume, I do wonder if they will ever learn.

But two potential conflicts, to distract us.

Meanwhile, to again distract us, Trump whilst on the toilet announced over twitter he would impose 25% verses 10% tarrifs on CHina. AN then add the 200 billion not covered and make it 25% on everything.

A few comments on this.
USA is and continues to act ... via its navy ... in shall we say a very provacitive way and 3 incidents recently v the Chinese made me blink.
Second, the China trade deal, is this like how Australia gets raped by Microsoft for example with 3.9 billion in sales, but it does not book 3.3 billion of them here, it does NOT pay 330 million GST .... and on the total 3.9 billion ... going on its profits after tax and R+D /// Australia should be getting some decent share of the 1 billion PROFIT it males here ... so another 300 million company tax. In total 630 million tax SHOULD be collected ... yet we get ... 60 in GST and 30 in company tax, so a missing 540 million a year.

Is China going  , well we prefer NOT to have this occur ? I suspect a lot of this crap is being served up.

At some stage, CHINA will say NO !!
USA seems to forget Japan and actions pre WW2 and Pearl Harbor similar stuff went on. Japan of course back then was doing not good things in Korea and China ... China is NO saint ... but USA did the same stuff in trade pre WW2 .... then about 6 months prior to the attack seized all Japanese assets and we all know how well that went.

History and amnesia rules the day.

Markets, well IGNORED it overnight. They got crushed in China, were down over 2% in the USA ... only to close basically unchanged.  Well donw 0.5% ...

Out comes more idiotic crap this morning after the USA close and down yet again when the USA confirms its, well going to put the screw on China again. Confirms the new rate, the new goods covered.

The person and people who pay are NOT the CEO's who benefit from these crappy tax rules the USA imposes and so too the top 1%. Tthe people pay for these idiotic tarrifs and its ok if your rich and it costs a bit more, but for the lower 80% last year their healthcare insurance went up an astounding 9% ... white goods ... 10% .... about to get smacked another 15%.

This idiotic polciy WILL and DOES not a thing for USA manufacturing. They just go via Mexico ... or some other nation ... but NO new manufacturing will go on in the USA for the simple reason that if you impose a penalty rate of 25% on imports, its NOT something that will be there forever and whilst you MAY be able to produce goods cheaper than overseas with that margin, but if Trump sits on the toilet again and has another brainwave .... the 25% IS GONE.

none of this is good for world trade. NONE of this will end well.
Not the war mongering, not the blackmail tactic just pulled.
Chinese will dig their heels in either way. They may capitulate but if your nation was held to ransom by a bully, would you buy an Apple product ? Or a USA product ?

Anyhow, for now the benifits of USA companies not paying tax DOUBLE the number in 2018 verses 2016 and a massive boost to NPAT ... after slashing tax paid .... and then slashing medical cover for the rest of America whilst ignoring the near 23 trillion debt .... if one multiplies by the p/E the taax break ... and then stock buybacks, it explains why the USA market is at all time highs.

Not I might add compatible with HUMAN life.
Falling life expectancy.
Old age supposed free healthcare NOW 80% end up on emergency healthcare which is a 15 year old with a box of band-aids and aspirin for all ailments.
Medicaid recipients in 1980 .... 20 million .... the emergency healthcare thing. Its now about 70% of the services it provided THEN in 1980 v 2019  ... verses now ... less than 40% of Medicare we have here or UK NHS.

So now 2019, there are 80 million on this crap healthcare .... yes the population is 50% more ... so this gone from 30 million adjusted to 80 million and at end of LIFE ... free over 65 Medicare .... people run out of money and have to resort to Medicaid which is just awful and that number just hit 80% of them at end of life.

Record unemployment USA  .... record NOT counted as being attached to the workforce. Record over 65 people working I might add ....

6 million more in 2018 no medical cover at all ... in the USA.
Record numbers behind 90 days on their car leases .... only 6 million in 2010 .... now 7 million ...

But for now ... USA markets have little to do with anything other than ... what the top say 20% dictate.
Ironic that for the first time in 100 years White male life expectancy is crashing. Last time was in the 1915-18 period and influenza and world war one, had a lot to do with that.

Lets slash tax some more. Amusing the supporters of Trump actually voted to have their benefits cut even more.

Oh ... RBA ... rate cut ? Still doubt it ... not for the election reasons, just think, well its unlikely to make any difference if they did. I suspect strongly they know that.

Our election ? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Interesting place USA ... is it regional war ... superpower war ... trade war ... or Civil war as the people strangely are demanding healthcare ?

NONE of it good ... but just simmering away ... a nation cannot collect 30% of GDP and provide healthcare when it costs actually 3 times anywhere else. It costs everyone else close to 40% of GDP in tax.


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## kahuna1 (7 May 2019)

No rate cut ...

and this just out ..
*Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He will go to the United States on Thursday to continue trade negotiations, the Ministry of Commerce said.*
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...vice-premier-liu-he-go-washington-trade-talks

Out of the party paper ... a blunter message and basically saying whatever ... they are in no rush and will be patient whilst doing CHINA's peoples interests first despite pressure.

Basically despite provocation and threats, they will still be going ....

enuf .. USA market got back its losses as though the threat was not made again.
It was .... 

But Mr Market knows best and the 1% loss in overnight tiding now a mere 0.1% loss after the above announcement.

So many things going on both domestically in the USA and unprecedented ones and also on a global scale, all of course ignored for now. The 3,000 S+P is like a magnet for the computer driven things.

For now ...


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## kahuna1 (8 May 2019)

Oooh ...

this pot is glowing red hot. Every day .... whilst I suspect we go to 3,000 even 3,150 in the S+P 500 ... we a re dealing with 1929 ... 2000 valuations for the USA.

Not here ,,, we have not even hit the 2007 highs nor the EU on the main ..... all due to giving  a toss about the people and yep charging MORE tax .... v USA no tax for Buffett gates and Bezos and a lot of other massive political donators. Spend 700 million in lobbyists, 700 under the table and 700 via right wing think tanks, so 2.1 billion and you pay 1.5 trilli0on less tax. Great investment.

Anyhow ...
Overnight. Donny Trump is again sabotaging the negotiation process. Trump is delusional with his ideas and he IS serious about hitting China over the head with a stick.

Here is his tweet ....

 *Donald J. Trump*‏Verified account @*realDonaldTrump* May 5

*For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....

....of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!

Well ... he and this theory is unhinged. It will not bring any manufacturing back to the USA and its at best a threat tactic doomed to fail. More likely a distraction from other issues.
*
I sadly just read his twitter of late, sources .... FOX news .... stuff me .... they are rated so far right on bias its insane ... his next favorite source ... Judicial Watch which is ultra right wing and described as non factual and conspiracy theory central ... the next one ... The Daily Caller ... a mob formed by none other than Tucker Carlson the Fox news guy ... who regulatory displays his views on the very far side of the right. Basically all of this is eaten up not just by Trump but his 60 million twitter followers as being even close to factual.
*
Amazing ...
*
Anyhow .... Another development is House and the deliberate refusal to produce documents and even witness's has reached a crescendo .... whilst a a carrier groups sails to Iran and Pompeo who has a bloody awful record of lying about threats along with Bolton who hates Iran ... seem to be running foreign policy and Trump is openly stirring unrest and directing non compliance with production of papers, witness;s and meanwhile deliberately trying to stuff anything and everything.
*
China is just one of 5 things he has going on.
*
Sadly, there is little hope the state prosecution investigations will not eventually take action against his children and execs.

Deutsche bank has revealed they actually have his tax returns for some years, and hence the reason they are being blocked at a federal level by an annoyance suit.

The AG is now in the process of being found in contempt, unlikely to get through, but as we sit, the fabric is unraveling. Where the hell this one ends .... is a big call.

If he is unseated in 2020, the legal nightmare and one not able to be avoiding jail time is a real threat. In the meantime ....
*
His best deal is to step aside and all claims both state and federal against him and his spawn are dropped. 

be afraid. 

A cornered animal does anything to escape. Especially one without a conscience or remorse. 


*


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## kahuna1 (8 May 2019)

_*"More than 400 former federal prosecutors have signed a new letter claiming that President Donald Trump’s interference in the Russia investigation, as described by special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, should have led to “multiple felony charges for obstruction of justice.” 

The letter, circulated by the anti-Trump group Protect Democracy and first reported on by the Washington Post’s Matt Zapotosky, is pretty brutal. According to the former Justice Department officials, Trump’s actions as detailed by the Mueller report, which ranged from interference with Mueller’s attempts to acquire cooperating witnesses to an attempt to fire Mueller, constitute severe inference with the federal inquiry. In fact, they say, the question of whether there’s enough evidence to charge Trump isn’t even a particularly tough call.

 “All of this conduct — trying to control and impede the investigation against the President by leveraging his authority over others — is similar to conduct we have seen charged against other public officials and people in powerful positions,” the letter’s text says. “To look at these facts and say that a prosecutor could not probably sustain a conviction for obstruction of justice — the standard set out in Principles of Federal Prosecution — runs counter to logic and our experience.”*_

This is from both sides .... not just Republicans but democrats as well. 

This does NOT cover the NEW obstructions .... from Barr refusing to testify, to documents being shredded to Treasury Secretary refusing to provide tax returns ... despite the law,


The law ... has gone ... its unraveling ... the rule of law.
then again its Trump ....


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## lusk (8 May 2019)

The NSA employes 30,000 people spends billions per year and data retentions everything. If there was evidence they would have it. Because there is no evidence they switch to obstruction.

The Turkey show trying to pin him is doing nothing more than strengthen his position. Its just too hard for the people against him to accept that he was voted in fairly by the people.


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## kahuna1 (22 May 2019)

Yipee ...

*USA*
Underlying driver of USA markets is still intact.
That being tax paid has gone from 17.6% on profits to 7.3%. This is a massive support to earnings and as such that a USA company reports better earnings AFTER TAX is a no brainer.

Whilst Trump declaring war on Iran, China, Venezuela and so on ... sent the USA market off its highs, the fact it almost got into correction territory at its lows was a surprise 2,800 v 2950 new high ... this driver of value is still there.

USA fed is still muzzled and unlikely to raise.

That Trump is openly now obstructing justice is amazing,historic and in many ways irrelevant. The system is now so corrupt that even actions of the worst president back in the 1920's on taking bribes for oil fields pales in comparison to 2019. Trump surpassed Nixon acts some time ago, what is different is the republican party will not impeach him and why Nixon quit, was NOT that he was guilty, it was because he was going to be impeached and voted out, hence he walked. Not this time, NO ... Trump will stay.

For the record, the number of cases, Federal and State is now 30, and NOT mainly to do with Mueller report. Latest is Deutsche bank money laundering reports which were NOT reported to authorities. They were highlighted internally at least 10 times but not passed on above. Kuschner his son in law also implicated. For the record Deutsche bank already has been fined 20 billion for money laundering to the Russians and this is just more of the same. Trump himself unlikely to be pinned on any of these but his kids, son in law ... unlikely to avoid them as time goes on.

China and this trade spat, well, is suspected either via USA belligerence on so many global issues from Iran to China to Venezuela, USA has in this case with China, permanently and  totally destroyed any relationship or hope of this. It is now clear USA is openly attacking via proxy the Chinese based Huawei which funnily enough spends similar amounts to Apple on R+D and this is at 20% the cost per employee of Apple. In the end, USA is not winning any friends in the EU and the attacks there are just as open and the EU is in direct conflict with the Iran policy of the USA let alone it is now clear the EU is a target for similar Pro USA trade war tactics.

Bottom line the *USA even now has permanently if not totally destroyed its brand name*, it is not far away from that. Forcing China to say develop its own NON USA based chips or tech software say with Google Andriods is a mistake when a nation pumps  out 700,000- very well qualified computer programmers a year. Time will only tell on this one.

Tax wise, USA corporate theft overseas has risen to levels never seen before and EU making tax havens illegal is just one of many steps nations are having to take with USA antics and tax theft overseas. Again like non payment of USA domestic tax a positive, supporting the absurd USA valuations, the other, a massive and assured hit to underlying profits after tax when the rest of the world say NO ... to the antics of Microsoft and Google and Apple and a very log list. But for NOW, still intact.

What is a worry, only real one, is the debt ceiling needs to be raised in about 8 weeks in the USA or mandatory budget cuts get enforced. This for me is the big issue. I doubt, given the belligerence and open defiance Trump is displaying any agreement will ever be made. Not a good thing and whilst 30 cases create a lot of hot air, with cause as they are all WITH MERIT, this is a political disaster not just internally but internationally. China and Huawei its largest phone maker and the worlds largest phone maker, is openly being attacked along with almost daily provocative comments or actions by the Trump administration which are absurd. *China as I suspected prior would go GET STUFFED and it has done so*. Being backed into a corner and not just China but policies and economies of the rest of the world are in similar straights, I think longer term its a massive mistake and the end is not a good one. Australia for example has 5 tech companies refusing to comply with tax law and booking sales to avoid GST overseas let alone open tax avoidance to the tune of 30 billion a year.

That's not free trade, its theft if not  extreme violation. That our new PM is lacking in a backbone like previous ones is sad. We are needing just a fair ... FAIR payment of tax. Even ANY payment would be nice !!* PLEASE grow a set of balls and say NO !! *

Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play, but ... well ... the above is destroying underlying fundamentals quicker than even I can type. It does NOT mean we don't get there, but its less than likely if not impossible that world events and total destruction of overseas markets occurs prior to sanity prevailing. Valuation wise, up here .... USA side ... NOT OURS .... USA wise ... its into 1929 and 2000 type levels. Driven of course by NON payment of tax and it makes things look rosy.

On this, USA house at present grilling drug chiefs and it is a disgrace which the USA hides and ironically most effected, the old and mainly white for now over 65's vote for a system they hope is fixed, but clearly run via the Drug Oligarchy in this case. An asthma preventer a common one, price hiked 10 fold in 10 years. AIDS preventer costs $8 here and $2,000 in the USA, insulin at 4 times the price ... it goes on and on.

Something terribly wrong with the inhumanity of genocide via denial of medical treatments.

Not that these increases ever hit the USA CPI as its weighting on healthcare is 7% when the USA spends over 20% of its GDP in healthcare costs and cover has gone from 90% top 70% post 1980. So in effect its REAL weighting should not be 20% but 30% !!

Anyhow ... nothing changes ..

*Australia*

New highs and surprise election win. We do live in utopia and either party had similar policies in a broader sense. Labor more tax more spend failed and we have a steady as she goes policy.
Markets loved the removal of the franking credits issue, or so it seems. I have to say I felt like a bank teller prior to the election and whilst dividends just went ex, Banks lost $1- or so, then went even further near 12 months lows taking out the panic, I was going cross eyed buying things with 7% yields ignoring franking credits.

Blink ...  and they are 8,9,10% and more higher. Banks. Massive little things. One side was silly and here we are where, well, $23.89 for NAB low verses $26.20 so $2.31 gain in 3 days close to 10% I am less amused holding and have reduced as such. Similar stories from WBC and the rest. Underlying issues still remain and whilst I would not be surprised to see more strength, the state of their real earnings even ignoring the housing market is not great and not likely to get better as time goes on. But for now, party party party till the next erosion in earnings appears.

RBA as suspected again did not act in May, now its June ? This one backed by more plain speak from RBA head and I suppose they do it this time. Not that it will make a bit of difference. Relaxing lending rules and margin banks need to justify lending will have a greater impact as will tax cuts when they come through. So, whilst a good thing, the markets showing this with a post GFC high. Not suggesting we don't go higher mind you !!

China impact, and non buying of USA goods and even LNG and Pork likely helps us out a bit. Dollar lower again a positive for exporters, but USA dollar strong whilst its fiscal side at 22.7 trillion debt and rising looks like a train wreck, for now will take the weakness of the AUD.

More inclined to play the ranges, as I tend to do, and my massive overweight banks pre election and thinking it may be painful post Labor win verses a 7% yield now replaced by a gift and thinking the financial side is in days gone from cheap to expensive. The old highs of banks above $30- post royal commission and new capital requirements make the current likely highs say for NAB not $33-  with a dividend cut to boot, ... its old high is irrelevant to a great extent .... one hand 10% off for more profits diverted for capital reserves and 10% more for lack of real growth in earnings, well I have $27-28 as the insane old high. So here ... we are not too far away. Basically sell $26-28 .... HOLD and IGNORE ... depending on dividend and when its being paid $26-24.50 and buy $24.50 to $23 if your lucky. I must admit I got a bit carried away at $24- pre election and just post dividend.

Other stuff ... RBA cuts ? Ho hum ... the overseas backdrop of actions has me one hand concerned when the USA is at 1929 valuations, all be it based upon non payment of tax to anyone anywhere and a medical genocide of the mainly colored and poor whites, which would make any despot psychopath proud, eventually these cycles, even empires rise and fall. For the very same reasons. Greed and corruption a major force and not taking care of the needs of the many verses the greed of a few is what has unstuck them all. Removing say if the Justice Democrats got in and universal healthcare in the USA occurred in post 2020, the impact of tax being paid by the top 1% and CEO's at say 20% v 7% the valuation of the USA side would crumble. Unlikely as it seems in 2018  with Biden favorite for  the Democrat side 2020 election, who is weak pathetic form of Obama and he was very very bad for the interests of the USA outside the top 1% is more of the same corrupt stuff.

Of course, polls get it very very wrong. Trump got in. Betting odds on Liberals went from 4/1 to $3.25/1 out to $5/1 just pre election. USA needs reform and corruption and non tax payment makes even Greece look good. One cannot I thought have 66% of all bankruptcies about medical bills wi0thout a revolt. Wrong. One study following 6.2 million cancer patients 2000-2016 found 42%  went bankrupt within 2 years, and its likely the number was over 50% as they couldn't contact 20% of them !!

Amazing cruel and inhumane world out there. As always I kiss the ground of our nation and our politics are so far LEFT of even what the Media in the USA calls socialists and communists there, who merely want tax justice and burdens shared by all society along with Universal healthcare. I don't think the liberal party is socialist its just like labor more for the people !!

For now, if RBA acts, and I still think, they should keep their ammo dry but resolved they likely do cut .... for now ... play the ranges with an eye to very big issues overseas without the noise. Does China stop buying USA all together ? Forcing them to develop the missing parts of tech they rely upon others for and say operating systems .... the USA has done itself no good of late with its actions v most o0f the rest of the world.

Lastly, Climate change and whilst some claim the election result was about that, a rejection to some extent of the issue. I would note some things are occurring which are off the charts for IPCC predictions and for example, Arctic temperatures 20 C degrees above normal. Methane levels exponentially rising, which is 100 times worse than   CO2.  USA at an Arctic conference was going on abut new resources and oil and gas and trade routes. Ignoring all other issues like the fact that if Arctic ice goes, sea levels rise DOUBLE expected by 2100 and 2 meters verses 85 cm.

Below the ICE in the Arctic, buried for a million years frozen is a permafrost of frozen dead vegetable and animal matter which contains 1.8 trillion tons of CO2. Along with that, 10 billion tons frozen methane on the sea beds and possibly 50 billion tons and this, at 100 times the impact of CO2 added to now thawing vegetable matter adding 1.8 trillion tons of CO2 this event is the equivalent of ALL the CO2 man has produced since 1850 and then some.

CO2 just hit 415 PPM for the first time in 3 million years. ICE over the Arctic very accurately measured via satellites just hit all time April lows. It is where it is at the end of summer, in September and of we have an Arctic Blue event for the first time, which well ....  will make the 2050 -2100 region sadly interesting and forget 2 C Degree change and try 4,5,6 .

But to the USA Pompeo its an opportunity for trade ? Or more oil and gas ? Interesting in their world even heating water and it expanding is denied. Let alone CO2 being a greenhouse gas and warming things. I would add, with amusement, half of the lower end of NY by 2100 under water, Miami which even now is installing pumps to keep high tides out, well ... good luck. New Orleans, well, its already below the water table and without the pumps which keep the water table 30 cm below ground, I wonder if the sea rising will effect them ?  Apparently not.

Just, something not to panic about, we will be gone. Or I will be, but it appears the start dates seem to be getting closer, again .... and the impacts MORE ... and the IPCC did not and does not contain any of these things because, well ... the USA and Saudi and Canada refused to sign off on it unless they were REMOVED because they were possible outcomes. NOT scientific and occurring. Gee does 40 degrees F or 20 degrees C melt ice and temperatures of 84F verses a normal high of 40F make any difference to ICE in the Arctic ? Apparently not.

Amusing this world, and So so glad I live here in Australia.


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## kahuna1 (5 July 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play, but ... well ... the above is destroying underlying fundamentals quicker than even I can type. It does NOT mean we don't get there, but its less than likely if not impossible that world events and total destruction of overseas markets occurs prior to sanity prevailing. Valuation wise, up here .... USA side ... NOT OURS .... USA wise ... its into 1929 and 2000 type levels. Driven of course by NON payment of tax and it makes things look rosy




We are to the first irresistible line in the sand .... 3,000 in the S+P 500 ...

Nothing like the USA lowering tax by 10% that corporate pay.
Second is the USA Fed muzzled.

Our markets given the weak Royal commission and our own RBA lowering rates is following lockstep.

Iran and other issues, ignored ... even potential ones.
Much like 2000 ... tech sector priced like there is no problem ever to be seen with some companies with a mere 150 mio sales but a market cap over 10 billion.

Still some ways from where the 3,150 -75 SP level where the tide is already out, but the idiocy of markets nowadays is massive selling at lows .... and massive buying at the highs.

I did think the opposite was the idea, but what do I know.
Meanwhile the lower 50% in the USA officially have NEGATIVE net equity and no wealth.
The lower 80% own NO shares or not much and the top 80% own 93% of all wealth.

Funny thing markets and yep we follow the USA, but our lower 80% have 36% of the wealth .... not 7%.

In 1929-30 ,,,, USA run by the same clowns, with the same no rules policy ... USA actually was making 85% of the cars and 40% globally of all manufacturing.

Today its number 10 .... and a lot of that is questionable that's included. 
Time for a holiday and come back when the prices more reflect reality.

Without a functioning middle class, let alone an impoverished lower 50%, much like in 1929, the lower 40% lived in poverty. In 2019, record numbers of people in arrears on car leases, medical bankruptcies number one cause and well ... if your paying in effect 3 times what the rest of the world is, sure my manufacturing numbers look ok.

Take care ...
We finally are there ,,, and getting closer .... but this one, painful to watch for human reasons.

Cheers 
Mark K. ... 

3,165 .... still suspect S+P but betting or predicting stupidity at times ... and for the first time ever, record deficits, record non war defence spending coupled with low low low interest rates ?


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## HelloU (5 July 2019)

*"Time for a holiday and come back when the prices more reflect reality." *

am i able to ask what you are actually doing with your assets right now (as distinct from any musings).  

(i am cautiously buying with the 50 and the 500 converging despite indexes at highs)


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## kahuna1 (5 July 2019)

Well ...

Shares now slowly into cash as the madness  peaks.
Either way, patience and selling into all time highs, even too early, always gets rewarded.
Whilst it appears, at peaks ... the rally will never end, it does and then the massive buying at peaks ... like not over 7 months ago was massive selling at lows and for the ASX 200 ohh ... 1,400 or so points ago.

Whilst not getting paid much on cash, and likely missing the dividends if they go too much higher an d I get out of some that are being paid Aug, Sept .... the risk reward for me is not good.

Only time will tell. Yes, it is as strong as 20 men today, USA just drifted up, a MELT UP ... I tend to as the title implies BUY into dips and SELL into tops or ones I suspect are tops and often is the case,


Each to their own ....


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## HelloU (5 July 2019)

thx
our previous highs were jan18 and aug18  and aug14 since the GFC, did you also start to sell sell before these highs also or, if not, do you see something different about right now (Jul19 compared to those those previous highs). 

My next question will be .... if u r selling now cos the market is too hot, what types of things will trigger a future return to the markets with that cash?  I only ask cos i started some selling in 1st/2nd week of June with similar thoughts and the market remained bullish ...... and i am tentatively buying again (not that it matters what i do)


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## kahuna1 (5 July 2019)

Well ...
Selling slowly ... still have USA stuff. It operates on wildly different things.
Suspect, yes there is still 5% in USA to go and 7,000 or so on ours.
Just ... wary for may reasons on these highs. China, Iran and a very long term overvaluation of the markets verses GDP.

Things on your second question go in cycles and at times of late massive ones, on our market whilst reducing banks on the bounce, pre election they were 25% LOWER than exits and slow ones right now.

For me, things that really drive overall markets, interest rates, tax and other risks .... 
For now, all taps are open in the USA one side whilst the underlying stuff just gets more and more woeful.
Risk and price are related and as price falls, they pay me to take on risk, whilst most are selling and as it rises to absurd levels or over excited, its time to reduce because the price is making it more risky to hold.

Very big picture..... often 20% if not 40% between one and the other for a share and any peak and trough in index ... minimum 8% .... usually 8-12% ... or once in a while much bigger.

Some shares of course have their own cycles ... and its a matter of having a group of say 30 one likes and picking their eyes out on the lows ... and opposite when they go nuts, Banks got spanked twice ... in recent times and not proud to take 15% or 20% in and out.

Take care ...
Not for many this path ... its buying into panic and selling into everyone being a legend ...


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## kahuna1 (28 July 2019)

Well MAGA ...

NOT .... Fed muzzled ... USA democracy is purchased and debt ceiling a joke, a record deficit in the best economy EVER ?
Really ?..

France went get stuffed Facebook paying a mere 1% tax rate when its margin is 45% on sales ... Trump responds like a Facebook exec and now threatening tariffs and on wine ? because a nation wants to charge tax on profits generated on its soil ? 

Free markets .. let alone economies .,.. are to be dictated by USA corporate greed ? 
Australian TAX looses 30 billion EACH year in unpaid tax. Some ,,., Like FB ,,, book sales overseas and do not even pay GST ....  

I kid you not the ATO publishes the turnover, profit declared and TAX paid. 
Facebook claims it paid 1 billion of tax overseas in profits in 2018. Well we got 15 mill and between EU biggest nations making up over 50% of this overseas income I come up with less than 100 mio USD paid, NONE to some Eu nations !! 

Globally the world is in serious TROUBLE. Massive fiscal trouble when we are being dictated to by AMAZON and FB and a group of corporate crooks who in Amazons case in 25 years HAS NEVER ... EVER paid any tax on profits, claimed deductions of 10 million on low price issued options to executives, never paid NEVER paid a dividend and in the USA is 19% of the retail market and NEVER paid a fine for some of the stunts its pulled on sellers on Amazon who if they sell a lot, Amazon magically has a similar product appear and your viable business ... goes down the drain and now only appears on page 3 of any search.


Meanwhile, USA hit lowest birth rate, GDP numbers all revised down and even then they are meaningless totally ... as the lower 50% now have negative net worth and the lower 80% even the upper middle class ... thats the 60% to 80% wealth bracket share a mere 7% of overall wealth.
*
But what drives markets, for now, interest rates, mean it in the USA likely goes now ... we have passed that first milestone of 3,000 on the S+P 500 to likely 3,165.*

Outside this, USA could lower rates to MINUS 3% and it still would not improve the lower 80% real economy. This move has nothing to do with anything other than the top 1% ...

As for nations now shedding 1-2% in GDP in not collected tax .... Like France .... Like Australia ... we slowly get strangled. Our nations and NOT bein g hite AMERICANS in the top 1% we are ... well irrelevant and if we complain as France did and imposed a tax to try and collect some value out of the likes of Google and Facebook and Microsoft has not actually gone far enough. When you need 25% PAID on company tax profits and your getting 1% on turnover so about 10% of what you should .... they are stuffed and they must collect more tax there and in fact tighten to compensate.
Eventually, someone will blink.
.
Will it be prior to Trump bombing Iraq ? Or as he mentioned stopping Afghanistan via nuclear weapons or maybe North Korea ? Or Venezuela ? Then of course 2020 and he is unlikely to be re=elected despite FOX news efforts, ... will he actually give up office even if beaten ?

He just gave yet another speech where he claimed fake immigrant voters rigged the 2016 elections and despite investigations in 40 states NONE of this was seen .... NONE of it..
As to telling France what can do, its same for Mexico and Canada and China and Germany and UK and Australia and so on.

Meanwhile USA came 11th out of 11 lowest of OECD nations in healthcare the bug developed ones, came 37th on World Health ranks and likely about 100 if they used the real numbers. As always a cost of the the wealth flowing to the top, the numbers on Medicaid and emergency healthcare in the USA at records up from 20 million to now 80 million. That is a 15 year old with a box of aspirin for your cancer. Its rated at 30% of even the not so good UK NHS health service .... 

Bliss .... then again media has every second add in the USA either a defence contractor or healthcare company don t expect any media on it. 

Our market, ASX 200 via rate cuts only going one way. UP .... like the USA for now. Sadly USA eventually the debt size and fact their population is NOW not growing with NET negative illigal immigration and ultra low legal immigration and record low interest rates, coupled with rising over 65's retiring ... who is going to pay for the 25 trillion or over 200,000 USD per person debt the Federal govt holds when the lower 80% average income is a mere $32,000- a year ? 

Nothing new in this other than the release valve is HUMANS and the fact that 80% of people end up on emergency Free Medicaid in old age, all assets gone, BROKE .... has impacts on life expectancy but to say Mr Zuckerberg or Mr BEzos who the latter has run a company for 25 years that recently hit 1 trillion market cap and has NEVER paid a cent EVER ... in corporate tax, never paid a dividend, something is either wrong with ME .... or with them.

Even the upper middle class, who YES retire with some assets, but being sick in the USA is massively expensive and more and more gaps of not covered and costs for even simple medications at 4 times anywhere else in the world, even they end life on the whole BROKE.

That said. the top 40% ... are in the USA living as one might expect to normal OECD life expectations and the top 10% as always live OECD best plus about 5 years so to 89 .... the USA average is officially 76.8 years .... its lost 7 years post 1985 v Australia let alone 25 OECD top nations ... if one takes out the top 40% of USA and uses a real average life expectancy of the USA not some fiction so about 75 .... the lower 80% and their life expectancy just hit 69 or about the same as Ethiopia or Sudan...
As always a cost .... if one bothers to look.hhhh

USA policy post 1980 when political donations started and now run the goverment and corporate tax is now 30% of what it was. I am serious and even in 2000 USA collected 207 billion corporate tax and the economy was 45% of what it was now. So in other words its lost HALF .... post 2000. 

Of course, to say Facebook who actually claimed 5 billion tax deductions for shares granted to Zuckerburg and fellow board members at $10 and when exercised at $120 share price ... they got a deduction for the difference between the two .... $110- and didn't have to pay tax.
Silly Mr Macron in France expecting Facebook to pay tax .... THEY will de=friend you !! 
..
Amazing the dictator who ... runs the world now ... is openly threatening France for actually going .... well ... we are merely asking for a share of what we already paid for via the R+D deductions that are already built into the NET profit which of course Facebook paid NO tax to anyone for 60% of the world business it does ...

Silly me ... this will work out fine. That is if Trump doesn't decide to invade North Korea first or ... as Bolton said, nuke them First ... I am sure China will not mind a nuclear cloud over them. They reacted so well last time USA invaded and only 3 million Chinese troops sent McCauther back to the 45th .... 

Ahhh bliss .... but for now ... USA goes up.So too do we .... based upon interest rates. Our Govt here, has the wrong policy and balancing the budget with 2% inflation and 3% GDP growth ....we could spend 5% just like the USA but not on tax breaks to the top 1% or 0.1% ... and get things moving. Even 2% of that.'

Since our debt to GDP is a mere 30% NET ... including RBA assets and Future fund, its not as though we are ... even close to USA at 107% of GDP right now or EU average of 94% of GDP ...

We basically are being very loose via RBA policy and then doing the opposite via fiscal policy with that idiot fathead Morrison and Flckerberg even more moronic as treasurer. Yes it makes Sense to have the handbrake on via fiscal policy and the accelerator down via monetary and 1% rates.

Then again, bigger scheme of things, its an aside likely to be irrelevant as the USA seems to think its 1875 and they lead the world. Well since the population globally is 7 times larger and the USA, even with 325 million, only 100 million REAL consumers left .... all the rest on some sick death march of low wages and medical blackmail .... the sad fact that China alone has 700 milloio0n well funded middle class AND the EU with 300 million WELL Funded ... middle class and another 400 million around the world, USA with a mere 100 million relevant all be it mainly racist selfish for a lot of them, will not dictate to the rest of the developed and rich outside world for too much longer.ass

Either Trump exits, and hopefully not Biden as he is likely another bribed corporate fool .... but eventually the rest of the world cannot afford to have such a leak of tax via Google, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon and a long list of others, mainly USA based .... draining the welfare of the world at will.
It is sadly that serious. Given up on Morrison and his boot-licking is a disgrace. 

China and India both said get stuffed as well as so many others, which, is evolving onto what the world will look like in the not too distant future. EU and 27 nations same thing. 

USA first and stuff the rest ? Or Stuff USA ... or should I say the top 1% and also the racist openly so of late the whole USA and send her back to 3 out of 4 born in the USA ... all women ... so they should shut up according to facist pig with wig .... and my my ... their skin is NOT white !! and SOME have different religious beliefs . Golly ...
kkk

We are in the 1920's for USA where 3 million Klan followers .... about 5% of the adult population were card carrying members. Trumps daddy got arrested at one Klan rally, Gates father ... well he was an Eugenicist a well documented white ONLY one and Buffett his daddy a Birch Society follower who among other things was a holocaust denier .... Buffet supposedly had a normal upbringing if you read some books, but ... well a fiction ... Daddy was one of the original Senators and far right even of Trump ... far far ultra right and America First party member.
Yipeee ....

hmmm

you stupid ignorant French person expecting Facebook to pay tax !! 

Meanwhile Our PM ... seen stuffing 6 pies down his throat at the footie ...


_I found this on Insulin which is a subset of the USA healthcare nightmare ...  a good view the first 5 mins or so ....
_


I am however no holding my breath ... Biden should he beat Trump and Trump actually leaves office which ... is a maybe, his recent rants on fake voters is absurd, will not change the USA medical side.

For NOW and I stress this ... NO TAX .... LOW RATEES ... drive USA higher .... for now ... likely 3,165 on the S+P .... the thing is a house of straw.

Democrats most of whom are talking universal healthcare HAVE NO IDEA .... NONE .... Berine Sanders whilst I wish for better outcomes for USA and its PEOPLE not the racists pigs in charge or inhumane greed on display .... USA spends 20% of GDP on healthcare. Its about a 65% level or EU nations healthcare. The top 40% of course very close to EU standards ....  the lower 60% awful and like a weird torture but worse, a death march. It is SICK.

Insulin and other drugs for common things such as asthma at 5-10 times Canada or Eu or Mexican prices without any goverment intervention. Insulin invented in 1922 and patent sold for $1- ... YES $1- costs about $25 for a vial .... for a serious users needing 6 or so a month, so $150- cost, sold for in Canada for $225. USD similar her not on PBS .... ... in the USA its $1,400- plus. 

It goes all across the medical side from a hospital bed ... at 5 times Canada to a broken arm at 4 times cost to an MRI at 4 times and so on.

Most of the 65 nations with universal healthcare ... it costs 8-10% of GDP in TOTAL ... for near 100% cover. USA well cover at best is 65% .... and costs 20% of GDP. So in reality its 30% of GDP cost for full cover, if they were stupid enough to pay it. Massive profits and self interest of Mr Buffets medical insurance business and other cretins all around ... so every third add on Public Tv is A drug company and then the others are defense contractors ... I am serious. As for political donations .... both are massive and mainstream media has massive revenue from both of these groups so dont expect ANY coverage or unbiased coverage ....

Reality is .... missed by Democrats and stupid BERNIE SANDERS .... whilst a big fan of universal healthcare and better outcome for what USA is, a sad racist death camp being run by KKK types as Trumps father was or Holocaust deniers ... like Birch Society founding member Mr Buffett senior was or Eugenicists ... like Bill Gates daddy was and stop  those no whites breeding, the favorite charity of both Gates and Buffett is none other than Margaret Sanger's planned parenthood who describes Blacks as morons and imbeciles and Daddy gates ran it for many many years, this, view, ... well anyone ... NOT American not white as imbeciles.

USA just told France because they object to a NON TAX paying ... tax thieving cretin Zuckerburg, that they would impose tariffs and sanctions because France said ... well we will tax someone conducting business on our soil and COLLECT tax is absurd.

USA ... Trump actually not a person who has ever drunk, actually said, as the expert he is, that he always liked American wines and NOT French ones. As someone who  lived in the USA, being nice, American wines ... taste like their taste in fast food as being gourmet.

This to one side. The inhumanity of it. Let alone a dictator threatening nations with war, or nuclear bombing and North Korea now joined with Afghanistan ....

healthcare wise if 65 nations spend 8-10% of Healthcare universal close to 100% cover ....  USA is number 37 on World health and really close to 85 .... if one was unbiased, 11 out of 11 worst on OECD developed nations and it is AT best 65% overall cover, but pays 20% of GDP ... so for 100% cover 30% of GDP ... if they Said get stuffed and paid $125 for Insulin instead of $800 .... via a single payer, USA would over say 5 years go from a cost of 20% of GDP and a mere 65% cover to close to 100% cover and a cost likely 10% of GDP.

This ... is missed astoundingly ... and amazingly by even the better Democrat 2020 universal healthcare opponents of Trump. Are they IDIOTS ?  Biden is another bribed and corporate democrat like Obama taking massive donations to keep things the way they are. Bugger the people. 

USA would HALVE .... or close to it its overall healthcare costs in the system WHILST HALVING the overall total cost. No medicare ... type universal payer is going to pay $1,300 for a MRI to any provider when it costs even with a decent profit margin UNDER $200 --- .... this is HOW sick and perverted USA is now.

As to tax ... and USA say dictating things, and so so many sick things going on Yemen and arm sales for genocide to Guatemala a nation with an awful crime rate and murder rate 23 times Australia Trump has pressured them to be declared a safe haven and keep out those damm .... colored Hispanics. Let alone Venezuela and Iran ... where the latter,  will never be forgiven for being a minority religion and being not willing to follow USA.

I really cant say where it ends.
USA with the Fed about to CUT RATES ... despite all time highs on equities, mind you a lot fueled by Tax theft, threats of violence, sanctions and a death camp being run by ... a massive heal-care sham, ... and a defict topping 1 trillion in 2019, a Debt to GDP ratio cast in stone of 125% of GDP in a few years and NO income for those outside the top 20% or 1% ?

The world ... the global economy and viability of even developed nations is under threat. Not so much by idiot Trump, but when say any viable competition to even a Google cannot compete as they pay NO GST on sales and NO tax on profits, which makes any competitor impossible to have any hope is identical across say banking where an EU nation with 40% of GDP in tax collected has its credit rating 5 levels below USA with LESS debt to GDP .... LESS and USA collects 30% of GDP in tax and has unfunded liabilities of uncollected pensions which, well ... they clearly are ignoring and intend to. 

USA ... is out of control and has NO RIGHT to dictate the taxes and collection of taxes inside some other nation. 

TAX is the issue on trade and whilst China may subsidize things, USA does the same for say Boeing. and does even more so via encouraging and protecting outright theft of Taxes overseas.

But for now ... USA lowering rates, USA corporate paying NO tax .... pretending Facebook pays 1 billion in 2018 overseas tax when I can find a total ONLY under $100- Million USD of any tax paid, on income and I am up to 75% of all overseas sales ... ALL of it ... does it pay it to some fantasy tax haven ? It appears so ... Google is worse, Microsoft a joke Chevron ... wow ...

For NOW ... yep USA goes up.  
How about if they did actually PAY 20% tax to someone ....  they WOULD HALVE ... the tech company valuations overnight. How about, which is unlikely, but will occur, Drug companies and USA insurers ... hospital providers and so on ... GOT paid 25%  ... of what they now enjoy ? 

This makes say 2007 look tame, not as immediate, the driver or catalyst is NEEDED ... and heaven help them if on of the Democrats does ECONOMICS and is not in the pocket of corporate like Biden is and Obama was and Clinton as well ... and actually does something for the people verses the scum and changes things. How amazing to NOT pay tax above $120,000- on social security or medicare at  a 15% rate,  this is the joke of Drip down economics in the USA.

Meanwhile Australia, our fathead PM ... loosing 30 billion in tax revenue a a year, stuffed 5 more pies in his face.

Sad ... so so sad.

Unfortunately most NON USA nations facing a macro doomsday. Lowering rates in the USA with the high cost debt of credit cards and car leases ... at well over 10% above cash rates and NOT moving or likely to move, they could lower rates to minus 5% ... the deficit is NOT going into welfare or new roads or education, its going to MR BEzos and his divorce and new shares he issued at 10% the current market price which ... is a tax deduction ? 

Sadly ... its occurred before and the outcome over history is ALWAYS the same. We here, need to stand up and go GET stuffed much like France. But with a jelly blubber for PM .... 

heaven help us. 

Did we vote in Trump ?


----------



## kahuna1 (13 September 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Quick update ...
> 
> Well S+P hit a new high ... and I suppose it still goes up. We are however in 1929 and 2000 style valuations on the USA side. Still the 3,000 level irresistible and that road block of technical points at 3,150-75 ... and I might add 125% of GDP valuation on the fundamental side.
> 
> Drivers still there and giving a tax cut ... increased overseas tax theft in the USA with tax on profits paid falling from 17.6% to 7.3% is astounding. Tax paid overseas a joke and even with a 13.125% discount tax rate and being able to claim tax paid to overseas govts against this, a mere 670 billion of unpaid profits was repatriated out of o0ver 4 trillion stolen from other nations.






kahuna1 said:


> *But what drives markets, for now, interest rates, mean it in the USA likely goes now ... we have passed that first milestone of 3,000 on the S+P 500 to likely 3,165.*




Nothing changed for now 12 months .... in my view. The above is just a summary of this .....


Tech side USA  out of control .... stealing tax.
I note France google settled its tax theft ....  for a mere 1 billion Euros.

Trumps threat about taxing wine from France another pile of hot air. No wonder CH4 levels are exploding ... that's methane ... or is it Trump appointing a coal lobbyist as head of the Environment for him or ... scrapping controls over leaking Methane from fracking ? I suspect Trump is the biggest emitter.

I await fathead Morrison our PM actually forcing the missing 3 billion not paying GST easily visible from Microsoft, Google and Facebook ... be enforced here.

As to the non payment of tax ... I note some Tax office actions on this front being stymied by a corrupt ? Government here . I  question why they would appoint the advisors of this tax evasion as the advisors on recovering it.

Its clear what they make, what their turnover is and WHAT is being stolen.

In the meantime, ASX 200 rises like magic and the banks everyone hated not so long ago up from say $23-24 to now $29 ish so a massive rise and one that happened by magic last few weeks. One was a decent risk reward, the other, now up here I am less amused and giving back the gifts from Santa last year. I note some other radical moves like say Star Casino and a rise on fire of 10% ... or say CGF ... Challenger which has had issues went up over 10% in 2 weeks on really no change. I hold, but reducing as the air is deflated.

Not much to add.
Trump still being Trump and talking astoundingly about tax cuts ... social security tax cuts when the USA deficit just hit 1.055 trillion this year and total debt at 107% of GDP at 22.6 billion.

This person also thinks the USA can lower rates to negative territory ? Really ? With tax collection due to corporate donations LOWER than it was in 2000 and the economy in dollar terms has rissen by 240%, so a missing 350 billion or so. In relative terms its 37% of the tax rate of 1980 ..... 45% of the tax paid in 2000 !!

USA bottom line with healthcare which is awful and covers only the top say 30% .... but costs 20% of GDP .... so cover like Canbda or GErmany would cost 30% of GDP or 3 times anywhere else.

USA cannot afford even what it pays now for a simple reason. It collects a mere 30% of GDP in tax overall via all levels of govt, the EU collects 40% ...

EU lowered Debt to GDP post 2013 from 86% to 80%.
USA spent and spent its brains out .... NOt really ... other than guns guns guns and paying for healthcare at 3 times the rate .... so not effective.
USA raised debt to GDP from 101% of GDP to 106% and by 2023 with baby boomers retiring at DOUBLE the rate of say 2008  .... either they SLASH effective cover even more or ... USA debt to GDP will be 120% by 2023.

Trumps healthcare plan is ... pay no tax personally, NO tax for Bezos .... Gates ... Buffet .... and slash cover for the lower 70% and sadly that covers 90% of those not with white skin.

Interesting times.

Not anti billionaire .... but when their political donations now see anyone on above $120,000 USD not asked to pay social security tax or medicare tax for over 65's ... the issue is a joke.

I found the following amusing



Sadly Gates and Buffet have great PR ... reality is their favorite and only healthcare charity in the USA is abortions and NOT a cent for the 10% with no cover and the 20% with awful cover ...

Time will tell what occurs in 2020 ... and with nations with a spine enforcing their bloody tax laws.

Our PM is a spineless fathead who is scared of upsetting Trump at the cost of 20-30 billion overall tax stolen each year !!


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 September 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Nothing changed for now 12 months .... in my view. The above is just a summary of this .....
> 
> 
> Tech side USA  out of control .... stealing tax.
> ...





A very reasonable summary @kahuna1 

We do live in interesting times as even the Member for Chisholm would admit if being grilled by Andrew Bolt. 

Since I went to cash I've been in and out of some big stocks, as they seem to rise in this chaos, and also divi picking.

The tiddlers will be decimated when and if a Crash occurs. 

gg


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## kahuna1 (17 September 2019)

Just a few adds to the above.

Yemen has actually conducted over 100 attacks via drones in the past inside Saudi Arabia.
Some drones shot down previously. clearly  ... VERY Clearly  ... they were made in a garage and domestically IN YEMEN.

Why ? Look closely and the wires are not even soldered, they are joined with cheap insulating wire.
I would also add, there have been previous attacks on Saudi Oil infrastructure.
Whilst its nice to pretend, Iran was involved which maybe it is, the reality is Saudi Arabia has stated clearly its intent is to exterminate all Houthi of the Shia Muslim faith in Yemen. All of them. Around 30 million are in dire straights and 10 million starving.

Only analogy in history is the 1943 Warsaw Ghetto uprising where 300,000 mainly Jewish people rose up against the Nazis. *That was 1% the size of what is going on*.

USA maintains a total air blockade on the nation. So too a sea blockade where everything is blocked. All bridges and roads into and out of the nation Yemen also cut off.

Other than the Saudis and their other Sunni Muslim nations who joined them and 15,000 USA mercenaries .... the only nations directly supporting the USA in this in any way are the UK ... and NOW Australia.

I do wonder, and the tape of the Saudi Journalist who was murdered in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey ... I have not listened as its too disturbing to hear a man going " your suffocating me" prior to that occurring and him being chopped up.

Yemen ... is ... 300,000 or so dead this year likely according to the United Nations which the USa just slashed its financial support for and no longer feels its accountable for any action by its military anywhere and pulled also out of various bodies meant to protect against soldiers getting  out of hand.

Whilst perfect world, there would be no war, that sadly is a dream.

9/11 was an awful act of state sponsored or protected terrorism which killed 3,000 Americans.
In the Iran Iraq war, Iraq, with full support of the UK and USA did not a thing when Iran was the target of 350 chemical warfare and biological weapon attacks. this is on even Wikipedia and the killed and injured were well above Yemens total for even this year. UK even provided the chemicals used to make the agents.

Post 9/11 the Middle east has been torn asunder. Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria just to name a few. If the total deaths is under 3 million or 1000 times the 9/11 amount I would be astounded.

Since Yemen and its genocide seems to be missing from the debate as to WHY .... if Yemen were to trow a tantrum of similar size, would say 30 million seem to many ... or 300 million dead since that's 1,000 times the size.

This is just perspective and whilst not a fan of Iran and some of its policies, where is it allowed to stand up being the minority Muslim Shia faith and say here is some food and arms for self protection ?

I have no idea. too hard.

It is alarming and only can pray for a peaceful SANE resolution and we all live in peace.

Some of the claims by the USA that Iran was involved or launched cruise missiles are, well, absurd for the Cruise missile aspect. One sadly may learn WHAT a cruise missile does the hard way, if they decide to attack Iran. A cruise missile verses a soft non fortified target or building uses normally cluster munitions and they are baseball sized things around 5kg and the missile contains 40 or MORE of them.

The attack had 19 separate distinct HITs .... so suggesting even ONE was shot is sadly absurd.

My favorite claim by the USA in relation to Iran was when a USA warship 1989 ? shot down an Iranian airliner with I think 289 people on board. The CLAIM by George Bush Senior, now dead, was the plane was approaching the warship, descending and on the ID it was squawking it was claimed it was a military one. Upon the investigation which occurred  .... the plan was rising, going the opposite way to the direction of the USA warship and was clearly squawking via radio an Identification as an Airliner.

George Bush senior was asked about this about 10 years ago, did he regret it ? Or wish to apologize ? And he said NO to both.

Not sure the current USA regime is any better. Nor sadly Australia.

Last ... the drones, ones that can go 900 km ... cost a mere $15,000- ... most components are made in China. Scary world and now its been revealed the Achilles heel of the matter, sadly not going to improve.

Iran, USA mocked them and their capabilities and so on, only to have a drone  costing 300 million which they believed invulnerable to be knocked out of the sky and the wreckage which due to gravity drops straight down the recovered and displayed. USA claimed of course the incident occurred in international airspace, which .... again ... shows the total BS going on.

Missile wise, Iran is scary and if attacked will retaliate I sadly suspect many times over.

On Markets, a JOKE.
Seriously ....  NO drop in USA or global equities ?
Either I know not a thing about history or risk or the market is now without any humans running things.
When say 9/11 occurred the market dropped a lot.
This, if anything is potentially WORSE .... a delusional one term president facing likely prosecution if he looses in 2020 ....

Supporting the regime that, well makes some actions of WW2 look tame ?

Sadly, and not to be alarmist, Iran has had little choice but to be proactive in its own defense. As to say supporting the minority Houthi in Yemen of the same faith, all be it NOT with any material support since the USA closed all Sea and Air routes and Saudi's all land based support is gone ...

Strange world. Sadly so. Here the graves of those who fought gallantly in  Gallipoli and so many other causes to stop this sort of thing, we are on the OTHER SIDE ....

Help I cant breathe either not sure iof its the stench of USA or the Saudi person with a plastic bag over my head.

Be wary of markets. Risk adverse is always the best option at all time highs let alone when they ignore ... IGNORE the destruction of 50% of the oil capacity of the worlds largest oil producer.

Possibly the strangest and most staged response I have ever seen in my life. Not suggesting panic .... but, gee ... all time highs as the foundations just had one leg removed let alone the other structural issues.

All so Trump could tear up a deal that was working with the nuclear issue for Iran.


----------



## kahuna1 (19 November 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> I will end with a *happy 22 trillion dollar debt birthday party*.




Well now 12 months on .... its 23 trillion despite record low unemployment and the head imbecile is talking another tax cut ?



kahuna1 said:


> USA I would like it to kiss say 3,150 on the S+P 500 in its madness




Its taken 12 months but we are close ....



kahuna1 said:


> Still the 3,000 level irresistible and that road block of technical points at 3,150-75 ... and I might add 125% of GDP valuation on the fundamental side.




And again from the past ...



kahuna1 said:


> Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play,




Ahh ..

we are close. No trade deal ... China well its moving forward without the USA.
Still the market rises.

Nothing like not paying any tax and the headline rate fell from 26% to 14% and is the biggest driver of valuations .... that's about 18% of the recent 70% Trump era rise.

Add another 6-7% for now legal overseas tax theft .... and that's 25% of the 70% rise.

Natural inflation and GDP growth are another 10% ....

so that's half of it !!

Stock buybacks .... add another 15% of the 70% rise and we are at 55% ..

the rest is low rates forever and insane tax deductions in the USA where Facebook issues shares to the idiots in charge at $30- and the stock price is $130- so they get a tax deduction of over 5 billion in recent years which I might add is a fiction and makes the earnings look good when its a bloody fantasy.

Such is the age of Trump.

Whilst we are there ... or close enough to the 3,165-75 target I was muttering about 12 months ago when the market was having a cow ... UP over 30% in 12 months off those lows, my confidence when the USA insanely is talking tax cuts when their fiscal side is a train wreck could cause more idiotic rises.

Enough however is enough. Not about to ignore my computer models which worked even during insanity of 2000 dot com and got the exact day of the GFC. This time, possibly not so lucky .... when rules and laws of finance are ignored. Risk ignored .... and god forbid Warren or Sanders gets elected in 2020, they will reverse the tax cuts, close the holes .... that is if they get a landslide and hold both houses. That alone will reverse USA rise above every other equity markets by 50% of late and take it all back.

Wealth tax for cretin like billionaires over there who pay 14% tax when a person on 50k pays close to 35% tax ... and well all hell will break loose. Of course ignored ... for now ... and lastly a universal healthcare system like medicare. That sector between insurers and drug companies who charge 4 times the price of Canada and generate NPAT  of 225 billion USD .... whilst not immediate change, the super profit of charging 10 times as much say for Insulin will evaporate along with 90% of that 225 billion profit.

Doing the sums ,,, on this ... at a P/E of say 20 .... reversing out the valuation and loss of ghoulish profits built upon dead people will wipe 10-15% more off the USA side.

Basically Democrats cannot be allowed to win ... so 2020 election is going to be nuttier than 2019.

So far we have had 17 billionaires crying as well as Bill Gates ... crying and saying he will vote Trump .... so much for his hot air about more tax, Buffett and his 31 newspapers editorials would make Fox news blush ... that is if Fox news people could read. Neither is nice and their favorite charities are building the Mexican walls and abortions for people of colour.

Washington post and MSNBC ... running a media blackout on Warren and Bernie Sanders ... sadly BEzos was made to pay $15- an hour when Bernie Sanders introduced a bill into the senate in the USA called Get Bezos with the soul goal of getting workers he was paying $8- an hour a full $15- an hour. Washington post recently on one single day, despite being called leftist leaning ran 26 anti Bernie Sanders articles in just o0ne day. CNN not to be outdone did a poll of Iowa and Sanders was leading with 22% ahead of Biden and then Warren and the 5 articles they did about that poll, not o0ne mentioned BErnie Sanders was ahead.

Its going to be fascinating with Bloomberg entering the race, yet another idiot billionaire and his stop and frisk policy whilst mayor of NEw York saw 500,000 African Americans frisked each and every year, basically every one of them ... each year.

I am not sure which is the more delusional Trump or Bloomberg or the other cretin USA billionaires. I am NOT anti billionaire and ours pay 30% corporate tax not 14% .... PAY 25% basically for capital gains not 12% .... and the tax rate does not drop at 150k by 15% as Social Security and Medicare need not be paid by the rich in the USA.

There is a vast difference between say Andrew Forrest of FMG and the billionaires in the USA. VAST ... differences and I applaud their savvy or hard work or inventions ... and YEP they pay tons of tax here, but its not the case in the USA. Buffett boasted his 15% tax rate and Gates was paying 12% last time he shared it.

In the meantime, 2020 I suspect could be totally mad. Trump .... impeachment is unlikely via the Senate needing to have 20 Republicans cross the floor which is unlikely. Meanwhile, I suspect .... SUSPECT ... many Americans are looking at this and going enough.

FOr the record the median wage in the USA is $33,000- and of that $5,500- is needed to be paid in tax and if your from a family ... take another $5,000- off for medical not covered.

Median wealth in the USA is ZERO ... net wealth ... the bottom 50% HAVE NO ASSETS.

NONE.

The white ... media seems to forget say a 35-55 year old African American woman who works full time has assets of $1,000- and the White Woman has $42,000- in assets.

Amazing stuff when there are nearly as many Latino and African Americans as whites and then  we have the poor white folk and whilst many are  Trump supporters especially older ones, younger ones are more likely to be Democratic voters who WANT Change.

In 20108 USA on average lost 4 months life expectancy, the top 20% mainly white with decent medical cover actually gained 3 months and the lower 80% adjusting for this ... LOST 5 months in a 12 month period of life expectancy. This I might add is with even seriously cooked numbers.

Enuf.


Good luck and ... well ... anything goes in 2020.


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## kahuna1 (20 November 2019)

Hilarious ...

the hits keep coming and my insides liquefy as a result.
Sadly I listened to Trump and its all fake, its a hoax despite the facts being out in the open and the aid withheld until they got caught trying to force an investigation unto a USA citizen. The only one .... only one they insisted was investigated and he just happened to be the likely opponent of Trump 2020.

Sigh ....

Today's madness is yet another bank bashing day.
WBC apparently  up on money laundering much like the recent CBA case. That one cost a hell of a fine and this one, if its to be believed is for twice as many breaches. 

The banks as a group over the last 12 months, always under assault from royal commission and remediation issues along with needing MORE capital and paying out too many dividends hit lows around the $24 mark in the mayhem last Dec when the ASX was 25% lower, then magic pills and idiot rallies up over $28- and close to $30- for NAB ANZ and WBC ...

Same game .... different year. Interest rates likely to be cut again or so it seems ... so 0.5% and even on lowered dividends for most at $25- ish and a fully franked 6% yield  for me its yet again time to add. Whilst I think the USA very toppish ... adding or slowly adding back to the ones I disposed of as the banks went on their magic rally  seems like a good idea. Famous last words but having shed almost all of the purchases late 2018 for insane gains, time to play the same game again all be it with interest rates likely 1% lower and the RBA very clearly saying its going to be low rates for some time.

I am still giggling over the insane Orange moron and today's comments about its all a hoax, its fake ... when first hand witness's were testifying as to what they heard.

Hold onto something for 2020 as its looking like nothing I have seen in many many years.

Cheers


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## Smurf1976 (25 November 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Hold onto something for 2020 as its looking like nothing I have seen in many many years.



Any chance of an elaboration as to what you're expecting?

You've somewhat lost me there sorry...... 

My own thought is that a correction is in store before too much longer. What happens after that I don't really have a view one way or the other.


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## kahuna1 (25 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Any chance of an elaboration as to what you're expecting?
> 
> You've somewhat lost me there sorry.....




Well .... when one has a person tweeting 82 times in a single day ... its obvious they have not much better to do. When its the president of the USA and this is normal, its a new abnormal.

A lot of things can happen into 2020 and yet another billionaire enters the race. One who is for no change to no tax for the rich and no change to the USA and 87 million with either no healthcare or very poor cover.

That's just the tip of the iceberg .... USA just slashed tax to the corporate and if reversed as say Warren wants to that will take alone 30% off the recent 60% USA rally. IF she gets medicare for all ... the 225 billion net profit healthcare and insurers and drug makers earn in the USA will likely fall 70-80% over time another 10% fall on the index. All of course post 2020 ... add a wealth tax cut another 10% off equities.

I have no idea what a cornered Trump will do. Likely with so many spoilers on the democrats ... he get re-elected.

In the meantime to distract he will and has done things I thought not possible. 

USA share of global GDP once was 40% sadly its acting as though it still is. Its share is half what it was and treating everyone else as second rate to USA exceptionalism is a thing of the past.

Yes things will move on ... the world will keep spinning ... and if not 2020 then 2024 ... the USA will change and it must as its deficit at current rates will hit 120% of GDP by then. Pointing out the net worth of the median person in the USA is actually zero ... zero net wealth is somewhat alarming.

Taking the lower 80% in 1980 they owned 23% of the wealth not a great number, but ok .... its now 7% and falling. FALLING. There is no middle class left in the USA. 

Democracy will eventually assert itself and cults never end well .... and this is what we are dealing with a cult. 

The list of things that Trump could and likely will do in 2020 scare me.


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## Smurf1976 (25 November 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> The list of things that Trump could and likely will do in 2020 scare me.




Ah, OK, now I get what you're saying. 

I'm of similar thinking on that one. If Trump is actually, really cornered then there's all manner of things he could do. What that means for the markets is impossible to know but my thinking is that we'll have a crisis, perceived or actual, at some point in the not too distant future (this financial year in Australian terms) and associated with that crisis will be a significant fall in the major share indices globally.

My thinking there is that the US political situation, and for that matter the UK with Brexit and their elections, are approaching an end point. Those seeking to impeach or otherwise remove Trump would be wanting to do so prior to the 2020 elections lest he wins another term and there's only so much further things can be dragged on in the UK before it's resolved one way or another. 

That political instability wouldn't matter if we were talking about the government of some tiny island indeed for that matter it wouldn't be too important if it were Australia or Italy. In practice however it's the USA and UK, New York and London, and that's the very heart of financial markets. 

Whether my expected crisis represents a buying opportunity or whether it turns out to be the first of several steps down I won't try to guess. That really depends on how it resolves.


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## kahuna1 (5 December 2019)

I note the S+P had a high of 3,154 and futures of 3,159 .... and still its lurking in that region,

Our market smashed on the banking side as a wall of worry and hot air abounds.

New Zealand came out today and its requirement for capital needed. Was expected but here is the difference and impact ... or my view of it. 

Win win win …

RBNZ capital requirements changes 5th Dec 2019.

Whilst on the face of it going to 16% tier one capital is onerous.

Banks in Australia who own the NZ ones have been aware of this for 2 years.

2 years.

They have been shoring up their capital in expectation of it.
ANZ and WBC the main ones hit both now have come out with a requirement of around NZD 7 billion needed tier one.

It sounds bad, it is in fact far better than expected.

Massively so.

Instead of allowing 5 years, its now 40% more and 7 years.
Secondly weighting for capital requirements have been relaxed.
What is allowed for being called tier one capital RELAXED and preference perpetual share debt that is convertible is now allowed.

Massive all of these.

It gets better.

RBNZ estimates it will make loans 32 basis points more expensive as it is allowing banks to raise their margins and in fact it will generate massive increases in profits in NZ which, will of course be retained and in fact pay for itself.

I suspect about HALF if not more of additional capital will be raised and retained with *zero impact to the payout to shareholders*. It will of course see say 400 million NZD rising to 750 million each year more profits after tax, but these will be retained.

Bottom line ? Well shareholders get a much more secure bank overall.

Big losers ? Whilst inconvenient and a cost already having this impost of 16% capital required, end result is passed onto the consumer and the investor whilst not profiting from the misery of the poor consumer, gets an institution with massive capital buffers.

Whilst so many have worried about this for so long, the end result is actually far far far less than feared. Having 7 years, an open and published acceptance by RBNZ that the net margin banks earn will rise 0.32% …. and the relaxing of how risk is counted coupled with some relaxation of what is counted by RBNZ as actual capital means basically …. NOTHING.

Win win win … except for poor NZ consumers.

I do note how absurd it is to raise capital requirements to worlds best, highest cost and when the USA and EU will not even confirm to the much lower levels and ones 4% lower by 2024 makes it all a nonsense. In a global market, when an issue such as the GFC occurs, global systemic risk is key.

Whilst nice, and pretty, its absurd if not idiotic to demand this of banks when more than likely the risk will be global. Having 16% capital cushion in say 2027 when its likely some will be delayed and be holding 11% or less makes your banks not really that much safer in a global contagion, which is likely what will occur next crisis.

Reading the 300 pages of PDF's released I am somewhat agog at how much has been given on one hand …. and taken on the other via higher consumer and borrowing costs.

As to predictions of end of the world or payout ratios using idiotic past data when say WBC used to pay out $1.88 and its now $1.60 speaks for itself.

Suggestions of some new force about to take over banking, well, it will be regulated just the same and have no capital, no infrastructure and be required to report and provide similar if not identical safeguards as existing banks. In short the hurdle just got higher and entry to the market harder and more expensive as a result.

Similar things occurring in Australia for identical reason and recent rate cuts, not passed on …. same reasons and same result. Lions share of the fall in dividends already occurred and implemented with most cutting by 10% the size of the dividend paid.

Good luck


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## kahuna1 (26 January 2020)

If your wondering why the USA rallied .... like a rocket this from MFF thread speaking about Australia's best fund manager and a global leader in retuns ...

Basically the USA just made tax on the international side of USA companies optional ...

For the record ....
He returned 47% including dividends verses the index ... which he and MFG use which was around 26% up in AUD terms year on year.

Whilst MFG did ok and Hamish Douglass is a fair investor ... FAIR ... the MFG two global funds returned 27% and 28% .... verses MFF at 37%.

Yet again MFF ... one of the founders of MFG and still associated working out of the same office but no management role in MFG ..... MFF beat MFG ... by around 10% this year.

The average the MFF fund manager, Chris Mackay has beaten MFG which itself is no slouch by over the past decade is now close to 8% each year .... basically a doubling of ones funds if compounded.

Whilst Mackay prefers no press, does not even bother with results and bench-marking, others do. He is in the top 50 fund mangers on performance over the last decade. This is out of 10,000 fund managers.

An astounding result and a low key manager who, well .... just does it. Buffett has not even beaten the index over the past 10 years despite amazing tax ripoffs he has gotten via his companies .... tax that the USA healthcare and education system needed, but Warren .... needed more.

Ahh ... still of the view USA side eventually tops out. What did occur in 2019 was that the tax paid by USA corporates halved .... hence the 30% rally. Tax paid overseas by USA companies is now optional and if you complain .... USA will impose tariffs as France just found out and India to its regret in 2017.

Whilst impeachment is unlikely, the corrupt nature of the system is exposed. Globally no other nation can or will trust USA in any deal for decades irrespective of 2020. Any trade deal when say a govt changes likely to be torn up, as for defence or Non nuclear .... NATO and Iran deal torn up spring to mind. China trade deal, a problem created by USA, achieved ZERO ... other than China declaring no USA software can be used and NON CHINESE made computers are banned in all levels of Govt from 2024 which includes Federal state local which are in effect the same and govt owned enterprises ... which are MASSIVE.

USA for now has ignored this total and permanent destruction of a market. Why ? Well buried in the corrupt USA budget the taxing of overseas operations of USA based multinationals became even more a joke with Mnuchin allowing loans ... non audited loans to tax havens with no penalty for 7 years, which will totally eliminate any tax burden not paid overseas in bringing the money back to the USA.

Hence the rally .... basically ... things like Facebook claims to pay 1,000 million in overseas tax in 2018 ... when you add it up, it comes to less than 100 million. Basically a fiction. Totally a fiction. Largest income source in Asia is Japan with 1.58 billion USD  income and overall 40% plus margin on sales profit wise ... Japan in 2018 got paid 200 million Yen or less than 2 million USD in tax on what clearly was 650 million in  profits. So under 1% .... tax paid to Japan and the rest stolen. Australia fared slightly and I mean slightly better. Facebook sales here just over 990 million USA or 1.455 Billion AUD so a profit at 41.6% margin on sales WAS 605 million NET profit PRE TAX ... we got paid from memory insteead of 180 million tax, a mere 16 million.

We despite Japan having 25 million very high income facebook users ... and Australia 15 million, Australia collected 8 times more tax ... than Japan and ... well instead of paying 30% tax here ... or even sharing say 50/50 ... despite the fact we proportionately pay for R+D and gave done so for years .... we got paid at  2.6% tax rate instead of the 30% one.

Worse and more disgraceful is Facebook one of Australia's largest tax avoiders booked over half its sales via low tax tax havens and GST was avoided ... to the tune of 80 million.
]
One company stole 250 million in a single year from Australia, Google was far worse, Apple ... even worse, Microsoft the king of thieves has been doing it for years and its sales near 5 billion AUD ... only half go through Australia and GST and Tax Microsoft and that scumbag Gates who now has exited into a tax haven called a charity ... they borrowed or stole close to a billion all by themselves.

USA market and this rally ... is based upon destruction inside the USA with tax in corporate side HALF the level in was say in 2006 ... HALF and an at best 15% of overseas paid v 2006.

Things may change ... most Americans outside the top 20% have NO stocks, they are being crushed by healthcare costs at 3 times anywhere else, and wages that ... are sadly a joke. For the record the top 10% own 84% of all stock.




If you go out the top 20% mainly white .... own 95% of all stock and in fact, shockingly the bottom 80% in the USA own NOTHING .... or a mere 7% of the overall wealth verses a number in Australia that is 4 times that !!

The official Median wealth in the USA is supposedly 60k .... this number was 7k until they changed how they measure it and included pensions which are private in the USA .... unfunded and crashing every day and benifits being cut often by 90% ... they included these fictional assets in the numbers.

A change ... of leadership in the USA....  is possible and it will ... well ... reverse what is an abomination there. Australia and the rest of the world cannot survive . UK recently commented Google in a single year stole enough tax to pay 60,000 nurses in the UK.

If the USA were to have say Warren or Sanders elected who merely will make the bloody companies pay tax, the stock market which since 2015 has nearly doubled ... 1,800 to 3,330 in the S+P I suspect the fall will be dramatic. The PROFITS and RECORDS Trump touts about are fictions. USA inequality hit all time lows, healthcare, life expectancy ... Job Quality index is at 50 year lows, participation rate in the USA is near 40 year lows verses rest of the world at near all time highs ....

This 2020 is going to be fun. If its Trump for another 4 years, which given the impeachment was never going to evict him, I suspect he wins a battle on that one, but Lev Parnas and even moderate Republicans want healthcare ... and exposing the corruption domestically will I suspect be telling.

Amusing ... MFF ... prefer them ... with above caveats ...


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## kahuna1 (26 January 2020)

Sorry chart did not come out ...

Basically top 10% own 84% of all stocks ... top 20% even more.




Other factors why the rally ....

Warren threat seen gone.
Sanders they also seem to think no threat for 2020 ...

USA has taken control totally of the USA Fed and clearly so.
USA fed stuffed money and liquidity into the market AGAIN ...

France who was sick of being ripped of an not paid any tax by any of these USA based crooks was threatened with 25% tariffs and actually backed off ... 

Nothing like a bribe or political donation to the USA Republican party and sanctions occur or tariffs and so on.

France and Germany agreed to wait till after 2020 to deal with it. 

Micheal West writes excellent stuff, google him, on the impact these tax thieves are having on Australia and I agree with his numbers at the 20-30 billion a year, every year benign stolen from Australia. 

Sickening that Chevron pays NO tax with some of t
he largest LNG plants, No does Netflix in Australia and the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Google and Facebook pay at a weighted average of 2% .... verses out tax rate of 30%. I would add that over 15 billion is booked via overseas tax havens and GST of 1.5  billion is NOT paid.

So the UK going Google cost 60,000 nurses alone, if I were to use the full number at 25 billion and say 75k which is what a Nurse should be paid, not what they are ....  USA and I mean both sides of the isle Republican and Democrats have been in the past just as bad in allowing and encouraging tax theft globally ...

We could at 75k per nurse .... have 333,333 MORE nurses each and evey year.

Nothing is perfect, this and PM Morrisons obscenity and lack of spine is astounding and disgraceful. He is like a dog to the USA. I don t expect we get it all, but no Australian company can compete with NO tax and NO GST .... companies. Our economy and the global economy HAS A HOLE ...... a leak that goes to Mr Zuckerburg, or Tim Cook at Apple or Google and so on.

Meanwhile they the USA deny any climate issue as we do and 28 EU nations  along with the UK have declared a zero 2050 CO2 target, they must be MAD .... 

Greed has no bounds.

I prefer to be optimistic and a deep love of the USA people on the main, leads me with some degree of growing confidence that USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide and denial and death to the poor or gays, or Mexicans or Islamic followers and no tax for the rich and the poor pay tax but get no benifits will be replaced by, something similar to what we on the main enjoy here despite efforts to swing us to the NO TAX for the rich side of the equation. 

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

The media and it being run by the elite will not cover it much as FDR was mocked in the 1930's.
I note Bloomberg who is ... well so far right ... a republican who has a charity that ... well gave out 01% in 10 years and has Jeb Bush on its board and the Ex head of Goldman Sachs and Republican Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is spending 2 billion to TRY ... to win.

Good LUck ...
*
USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...
*
Despite under 1,000 billionaires in the USA ... we have 3 ... yes 3 running for president. The Guy who did Starbucks ... Styer is running. Amusingly Starbucks used to buy its coffee from where ? Switzerland of course dummy. That nation of course does not produce or make any coffee. It does however have Cantons with tax rates of 5% and tax breaks of 90% for the first 20 years so 0.45%.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

Trump and the impeachment will fail.
Of course it will.
The battle is lost ...
The WAR is actually won.
I am so amused by Lev Parnas who Trump claims he does not know  this Ukrainian mafia guy. 

I think even hardcore Republicans not ... fanatical ones are astounded by one side Trump going I dont know him, as did Vice President Pence ... and a long list of others .... then pictures ... video ... so amusing and now the Audio of TAKE HER out ... instructions to take her out an Ambassador or the USA.

When Joe Rogan who, well is a racist homophobe comes out and says with 7 million viewers he is voting for Bernie ... I suspect 90% of his mainly white young to middle age male audience  ... he bloody endorses Benrie Sanders and got to great lengths to explain WHY ... times they are a changing.

Trump meanwhile ... did 109 twitters in a single day.

Vice President Pence attended a lecture by a well known anti gay hating preacher and the ... well ... text of what was said was a disgrace. 

Trump himself attended the anti abortion rally. Are you kidding me ... Not a great fan of abortions but also NOT unaware of the right of a female over her bloody reproductive system and totally ... completely and absolutely opposed to the theory that a raped women or one via incest is NOT allowed to abort. Let alone a medical emergency where the woman will die ... No abortion ... Yes Trump supports it totally.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

That Hillary Clinton is even trying to besmirch Sanders who actually did after he dropped out in 2016, and Hillary was going against Trump, sanders did 41 rallies for Hillary 2016 ... in 19 states. Hillary, sadly sat on the board of Walmart as they slashed healthcare cover and refused to raises wages from $8 and hour .... they now are at $11- ... GO Hillary. Obama is just as disgusting whilst both Democrats, they are further right than the liberal party here and oppose universal healthcare. Oppose taxing the rich where Gates pays tax at 12% whilst Buffett at 15% and his secretary pays it at 35%.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

If I am correct and its a wild call ... a wish ...
If Bernie were to get a mandate and control both houses, all hell will break loose. USA on the main does not give a rats arse that stocks are at all time highs. Life expectancy of the lower 10% is at 57 Years and the top 10% at close to 90.   

If the Trump tax cuts were to be reversed ... stocks would tumble ... it would mean NOTHING ... as the rise MEANS nothing unless your in the top say 10% in the USA and the top 1% holds over 50% ....

Mayhem .... healthcare stocks such as the criminal Dialysis one that does 70% of dialysis its up 150 fold since 2000 ... it does however charge at 20 times the rate of any other nation. Heath-care insurers ... up 15 fold .... 


Gee medicare for all will shed 20% all by itself ... 

THAT'S 50% .... so 2020 ... BE very aware .... whilst Bernie may or may not. My faith in humanity and all America not being totally stupid must be coupled with an intense post 2016 dislike African Americans have for Trump and his type, Bloomberg ... with polling at 5% and under. Latino were in 2016 ambivalent to him, well ... Peuto Ricans and Mexicans I doubt feel the same in 2020. As for Islamic faith people in the USA, well, I think if one turned up to a MAGA rally, it would not be pretty.

If Sanders got a landslide, which, well ... being realistic is me being optimistic, but if he did the USA equity side is a mere mirage on NO TAX ... Global Tax theft and ... well uber rich Americans who have paid no tax so 40 years. Wealth tax increasing to 8% on over a billion is ... harsh, but, the sad fact is the median person working full time in the USA earns $32k and 28k after tax and Social Security FICA ... and average healthcare costs in the USA ... just hit $12,000 .... 

It would be obvious if they starved them .... they just play FOX news blaring instead of the classical music in the Showers 75 years  ago. BOTH are a disgrace and Bernie being Jewish recently reminded people NEVER again is NOT just about the Jewish faith its ALL BLOODY PEOPLE .... race religion ... beliefs and creeds. 

One may disagree with many things Sanders say. but reality is, he just wants better healthcare much as we have it. A fairer tax system there ... where rich pay MORE not less ... MORE as a percentage as income rises. He also wants better roads and education which ... is a shambles.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...2020   BE AFRAID .... if they actually do !! USA will slide ... the paper profits of NO tax ... will be replaced with something fairer ... not onerous. Then again I can hear Bill Gates ... yet again ... claiming he wants higher taxes ... but when pressed in 2019 he WILL VOTE TRUMP ... as will Buffett ...  surprise surprise surprise ...

MINE ... its MINE ... MY Precious ...

This of course is USA based crooks not ours. Our best ... is worth less than 10% of BEzos and Gates is falling behind. 

Reason why ? Not because they are silly or USA is great, its because they PAY TAX >... YES PAY TAX ...

What a novel Idea ... PAY a fair share of tax ... or REPAY non payment of tax for 40 years ...  sorry must run USA has a Drone buzzing me !! 


Jeff BEzos of Amazon ... a company that rarely makes a profit, never paid a dividend. Never not once .. EVER paid tax ... not anywhere ... not to any one. The richest person in the World ? Second pays it at 12% rate verses someone on 100k at 35% .... Third Buffett at 15% tax ....


Gee this is going to be fun.

So so so many tears, Boomberg thinks he is some sort of savior ... HE IS  THE PROBLEM and his type.
Bloomberg media makes Fox look tame in its pro USA ... USA first ,,, USA can only be the one that invents anything. Huawei actually employ more R+D staff than Facebook Apple and Google combined. 

Sorry upset ... I just checked that 25 billion would employ say 333,000 Nurses in Australia or some fire fighters and a lot of very very good things for our nation .... instead of going to shitheads and Bribes to USA political system that supports this crap. Each year this is stolen .... 

I hope and pray ... USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ... not because I hate billionaires. Of course say Steve Jobs should be one, but that was NOT enough. Its not because I hate America I actually love yanks, its not socialism ... its JUST fair ... the goverment at times controls some things or it gets totally out of hand with NO rules, no ta, no healthcare unless at blackmail prices .... insulin at 10 times the price here in the USA ....

I have admiration for say Gina Rhinehgart on some levels, she has built up her fathers work. Disgust on many others as her support for CO2 and climate denial so she can build her mines. Andrew Forrest of Fortescue, an imperfect self made man. Not some scumbag ... as these neo liberals are in the USA.

enuf ... I find where we are in 2020 ... astounding and absurd. USA wise and globally. Casually threaten nuclear option against 3 nations, almost start a war with another, condone a genocide in Yemen that killed 250,000 in 2019 and when asked, its all about USA arm sales.

Time for new global leadership. All built on little self interest groups that are totally out of control.


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## kahuna1 (26 January 2020)

The following is the Full Article .... via Bloomberg the PRO USA anti tax channel ...

First they cut corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% ...
Trump claimed last week it raised tax collected, IT HALVED IT ...

NO extra tax was collected as suggested in this following article.
They at the same time relaxed in 2016 the tax rules for overseas tax to a permanent 10.7% rate and buried in the tax codes, NO PENALTY even for tax not paid 10 years ago, NO interest ....

Effective tax even on the USA side hit 18% then 16% and now 14% collected. Whilst the headline rate was 35% ... prior to 2017 cuts the holes were meant to be plugged, instead ... MORE and more holes created.

The 2019 budget just passed had THE FOLLOWING ... in it PLUS a few other changes that effectively make all USA profits made overseas free from any tax. Corporate tax say in a nation is 30% .... USA pirates and thieves ... can pay ZERO there, and pay ZERO in the USA. Its like a privateers license to steal on the high seas, but in this case STEAL from any nation and if they complain, as India did, get hit over the head with tariffs. Calling India with a per capita GPD under $2,000- developed is absurd. Threatening France and Germany with 25% tax on their exports is blackmail. Its a declaration of WAR !!

Stealing 25 billion in tax from Australia is the largest organized crime our nation has ever seen. Ignoring it, not being able to stand up to outright theft puts our nation .... on this day to SHAME. Its Australia day not USA day or Jeff Bezos day or Bill Gates day or Warrren Buffet day or Koch day ....

That its NOT to be shared ... despite being earn t here ..  R+D and costs allowed as a deduction BUT no profit sharing, because we are NOT part of the USA ?

330,000 well paid Nurses ... or a mix of whatever .... $1,000 per every Australian man woman and child being stolen each and every year. Stolen.

*It is only fair ... to abide by our laws.
*
The following article by Billionaire Bloombergs own news channel is what it is ... a disgrace ignoring the fact that theft from the rest of the world is what he and his fellows stand for, let alone the impact USA domestically with 25% not able even to afford medications, 64% unable to muster $400- for an emergency. *Bloomberg just misses totally the impacts his greed has upon others. He is part of the problem not the solution. *

*It is only fair ... to abide by our laws.*

*November 1, 2019*,  SO ITS NOW LAW in the USA ..... passed ... already ... is this a law which breaches our own ? 

*Treasury Plans to Weaken Rules Meant to Stop Corporate Tax Avoidance*
November 1, 2019,

The U.S. Treasury Department plans to pare back regulations championed by President Barack Obama that were intended to prevent American companies from moving profits offshore to avoid taxes, according to guidance released Thursday.

The instructions mark a change in U.S. tax policy that has in recent years focused on imposing stricter rules on American corporations using complex transactions to move money overseas to skirt taxes. The Treasury Department said parts of the regulations, implemented in the final months of the Obama administration, are no longer necessary because of the 2017 tax law enacted under President Donald Trump.

“Because tax cuts made our business environment more competitive, we are now able to remove regulatory burdens that have been rendered obsolete, further reduce costs for job creators and hardworking Americans, and protect the U.S. tax base,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.

*Offshore Offices*
Treasury’s regulations address rules preventing American firms from lowering their U.S. tax bills by shifting income to offshore related companies, loaning that money back to their domestic companies, and then deducting the interest off their Internal Revenue Service bills.

A senior Treasury official on a call with reporters Thursday said the agency intends to repeal a part of the rules that automatically re-characterize tax-deductible loans as taxable stock if a U.S. company is receiving loans from and distributing cash to a foreign branch within a 72-month window.


The rule made it more likely companies would face higher tax bills as they moved money in and out of the country. Treasury plans to replace it with a standard that is more specific and gets rid of some complex exceptions, the official said.

The new rule would give companies some leeway to prove that two transactions aren’t related and don’t deserve adverse tax consequences.

Businesses resisted the original rules, published in 2016, arguing that the IRS was overstepping its authority. The regulations, commonly called tax code section 385 rules, were some of the most controversial tax rules ever written at the time, prompting companies to send thousands of letters to the IRS in opposition.

Replacing a test that was solely based on timing with a more fact-specific test will make it harder for the IRS to enforce the 385 regulations, said Mark Mazur, who was the assistant secretary for tax policy at Treasury in the Obama administration when the initial rules were issued.

“It’s not like the IRS knows more about the workings of the firm than the firm does,” he added. “So there’s an information asymmetry that creates a disadvantage.”

*Reporting Requirements*

Treasury will also eliminate requirements for businesses to report their inter-company loans to the IRS, a change the agency had previously proposed.

The moves could make it easier for firms to use accounting tactics to minimize their U.S. earnings and inflate their foreign profits, which are frequently taxed at rates lower than the current 21% domestic corporate levy. The existing regulations were aimed at stopping American companies from moving their headquarters to a lower-tax country, a process known as a corporate inversion.
The removal of the reporting requirements “may increase the propensity for foreign acquisitions and ownership of U.S. assets that are motivated by tax considerations, rather than economics,” the rules said.

Treasury remains cognizant of the need to prevent incentives for U.S. companies to move offshore and for foreign companies to takeover domestic corporations, the official said.

The Treasury Department should tread cautiously in weakening these rules now while Democratic lawmakers are eager to repeal large portions of the 2017 tax overhaul, said Matt Gardner, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. If the next Congress makes changes to the overhaul, these rules might be an important backstop to prevent companies from moving offshore, he said.

“There is every reason to ask whether two or three years down the road that they might need these,” Gardner said.

*Tracking Loans*
Critics of the regulations say the lower corporate rate and limits on how much interest companies can deduct have made these regulations unnecessary and are a burden on companies that have to track each of their loans.

Business groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Organization for International Investment, have said the regulations go far beyond their stated purpose of curbing inversions and hit routine transactions.

The government projected in 2016 that the regulations would increase tax revenue by $600 million annually. Thursday’s proposal would decrease taxpayer compliance cost by $924 million over a decade, according to the guidance. There isn’t an updated estimate for how much the policy changes would affect tax collection.


Democrats have criticized Treasury’s efforts to cripple the inversion rules. Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, has said the regulations should be made more stringent and weakening them could allow more corporations to cheat on their taxes.

In a statement on Thursday, Wyden said, “The corporations that got a massive taxpayer handout are getting another gift from Donald Trump. The Obama administration had essentially shut down inversions — transactions whose only purpose is to help big multinational corporations move overseas to avoid paying taxes. Weakening these rules only provides an opening for corporations to again dodge their taxes.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-weaken-rules-to-stop-corporate-tax-avoidance


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## kahuna1 (28 February 2020)

From another thread ... the WBC one ...

Its generally about banks .... and a new commentary about here and now at the end ... what I expect next few months and year. Mayhem .... 

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

I have been active of late in Banks ....

added or should I say purchased at absurd prices today.

Was NOT amused at WBC or its accounts.
Clearly and very clearly it stunk, despite that the stock went UP and UP and UP from $23.66 low to an insane $25.96 high. I wish I had all the buys I did at the low, but when the accounts were examined along with commentary it was a total no brainier to reduce and reduce very HARD. Reason being the capital adequacy, comments about more storms on the Horizon and well ... when the market up to a week ago gives one a gift exit when its clear its time to give the idiots back the shares they sold.

I missed the range of 8% by a long way, but ... also got the 80 cent fully franked dividend to make up for the slow way I entered ... and so too the slow exit.

Cannot complain ... the total range was 8% .... and despite being too soon buying ... 3% off the lows and snagging close to the absolute low ... only got half that ... so ... overall well over 10% yield plus some serious franking credits.

Entered today ... SLOWLY ... this is the bank with the biggest fleas, Litigation wise ,,, capital wise ... and of course managed to pay near the bloody high for the day when the low ... was 35 cents LOWER.

Despite issues ... and knowing them, being paid 6% plus and that's being ultra conservative ... with franking credits again for me is fine. I might add 12 month low of close to it as well.

We shall see how far they send it this time but not about to miss the mayhem.

Added a few of the other banks as well after giving back in the same way as they had even insaner rises. ANZ for example .... went up from $24- to an idiotic .... $27.29 which, well .... even the blind could see at 13% rise was idiotic,

NAB .... similar if not identical rise to ANZ .... and NAB seems to have less issues than any of the banks.

BEN ... knowing full well there was a cap raising coming, the results were good .... but CAP raise and lowered dividend as expected again not great. ... but boy did they slam that a few months ago ... irresistible ... knowing the risks and a mid range 10% or so rally. Its now hit the ground with a thud ... despite being with dividend of 31 cents fully franked and I suppose .... risk the dividend yearly is 58 cents or so .... 55 longer term .... at $9.20 well ... with 31 cent Dividend next week .... seriously ?

Yet another 6% yeild ... at worst likely a bit higher ....

BOQ I put in the trash .... forever.

One thing is clear, and that's we remain at low rates for a long time. When offered an effective yeild of 6% plus franking credits so equiv of over 8% .... gee ... golly golly gee.

But for now end of world.
If Bernie gets in, USA will have a cow .... corporate made to pay tax ? Healthcare at absurd prices and awful coverage ... some of them will overnight thankfully implode.

Time will tell on that one. First he needs to be selected over the corrupt Democratic party elites and likes of Billionaire imbeciles like Bloomberg. Spending 500 million on his preselection and likely USD 700 million by Super Tuesday ... which is 4 days away !!

The man is a zombie that makes even Zuckerburg look human which he is not ...

Should be a fun 2020 ... and if Bernie wins .... which I suspect he is a shoe in, with some serious caveats on the bloody party he is running for ... who is so corrupt ... then Trump ... he faces Trump ... the Yam headed imbecile.

Enjoy

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

As I type ....
Overnight the DOw fell by the largest points ever .... only 4% so well below percentage wise.

Market ignored Conv 19 ....  in fact had two rallies of close to 2% at 3 am NY time of late when a rumor a vaccine was invented. Knowing a bit about that, having followed many and that being hundreds of drug companies I knew it was absurd.

USA market rallied for a few reasons. I thought it stopped at 3,165 on the S+P 500 ,...  I knew as always when its broken by 1% so 3,195 ... it was going UP ... far far more. The reason was burined in the budget and allowing NO TAX to be paid by any overseas USA based company was the effect. USA tax collected by corporates post 2017 tax cuts went from 25% to 14.7% ...

I found it curios the 4 trillion in overseas profits stolen from every other USA nation by the cretins only 1 trillion went back to the USA despite a very generous 10.7% tax rate offered and NO penalty for tax not paid from previous tax years, Basically NO interest for tax not paid in 2007 tax year. HOW corrupt are they ? Anyhow .... this alone inserted in another bill saved about 100 billion in back interest .

Pretty effective paying political donations and lobbying and other stuff of about 3 billion a year to get not only 100 billion tax break but to HALVE ... the tax paid every year. This being  ... that in 2006, which is NOT ancient history USA collected 353 billion in tax from companies. The USA economy in dollar terms is double ... so in 2020 one would expect say 700 billion to be collected. Expect all you want .... 

The sad number is in 2020 the Goldman Sachs run USA treasury department expects to collect 252 billion not .... 700 billion. That in round numbers is a tax break of 350 billion each and every year.

When you have 86% of all shares owned by the top 10% and the lower 80% which in normal countries has the whole middle class the Lower middle ... the middle and upper middle and they have a mere 4% of all shares and that's mainly indirect holdings via 401k .... there is a serious issue.

Anyhow the USA 2019 Dec budget for 2020 had inserted into it further breaks for overseas tax theft ... by USA corporations where even the 10.7% discounted rate is now ... AT BEST 3%. Hence the rally.

Houston ... we have a problem. The peasants are revolting !!
Old joke is ... The peasants are revolting .... shut up and eat your peas says the wife !!

The lower 80% under Trump ... and Obama  and Bush have seen their healthcare costs DOUBLE >..  yes Obama is as bad and was as bad as the rest. Great orator like Trump but he did NOT a thing other than a fleeting Obamacare which most doctors refuse to cover. Bush started a drone program that well ... was shocking ... Obama massively increased it and to the tune of 5000 odd bombs being dropped on single nations. Trump, well ... he has increased it 40% even more. 

Anyhow .... the peasants ... they just want decent healthcare ... people like Trump who has not paid taxes for 30 years ,,, nor has Bezos ... who the worlds richest man has paid zero ... Bloomberg is running as President despite slamming 5 million Blacks up against the wall and stop and frisking them. The world of a billionaire is a delusional one.  

Sanders is called a communist for wanting a Medicare type system. For wanting to have like we have in Australia a tax system where the MORE yu earn the more you pay. Yes ... just like 99 out of 100 developed nations. 

Bloomberg with 60 billion and the worlds 6th richest person and an income of 2 billion a year ... Objects to well ... Latinos ... Blacks ... Large serve drinks and believes he can buy the election much like Clive Palmer here. Sadly Bloomberg has the personality of  ... well ... roadkill in summer 3 weeks after the event.

We sit here with 29 th Feb South Carolina Democratic vote  and 2 billionaires have spent I suspect 850 million but Bloomberg entered late and Styer the Starbucks billionaire who welll ran all coffee purchases through Switzerland which produces NO coffee but its a great tax haven ... and Bloomberg love love loves the Cayman's .... we have Biden who is 148 years old and another of the USA type politicians who accepts donations from corporations to do their bidding is  likely to WIN this single state. Or so the polls say. I am not sure about these USA polls as Sanders won Nevada 46.8 % to 20.2% to Biden and well the polls which merely had eventually Bernie ahead by 6% overall ... he won by 26.6%.

Corruption and Media ... relies upon advertising dollars and when you have insane amounts being spent, and by that I suspect close to a billion by Bloomberg alone ... of course it changes everything. AND it changes NOTHING. 

One power a person in a democracy has, and its forgotten by the elites and Trump and Bezos and Gates and worse Buffet and Bloomberg ... are scum who have destroyed the middle class in the USA. Its gone.
That 65% cant even afford a $400- emergency ... that 25% RATION their medication and 33% delay going to a doctor because they cant afford it is a disgrace. A total disgrace. 

Be very very afraid .... not our billionaires who bloody pay tax ... and say Forrest ... who is worth 10 billion AUD so  7 billion USD and to see someone just hit 160 billion USD ? Bezos .... speaks for itself.

Money ... has Bloomberg and the polls saying that the most racist and disgusting New Yokr Mayor and worse even than Rudi Juliani and that's saying something ... these polls say he has support of 19% with Black African Americans ... well ... we shall see.

I suspect, possibly ... we rally a day or two somewhere in there. Realty is the USA made tax theft globally possible. Until ... someone comes in and says NO MORE>

I dont know if Sanders wins, I suspect he leads by a massive margin. 
I think Bloomberg is worse than Trump. 
HE has no empathy for anyone and is against raising wages ,,,, against universal healthcare and his sole role is to STOP either Elizabeth Warren raising taxes or Bernie Sanders. He is trying to BUY the election.

He was NY mayor and bought the three elections he won. He spent 100 million in today's dollars on each.

Comparing say Andrew Forrest of Fortescue here ... a billionaire who just went there is 10 million for bush-fire people .... DELIBERATELY trains and hires Aboriginals ...  is the leading force in global anti slavery and is a climate change supporter in every way .... 

Bloomberg ... makes Clive Palmer look like a saint when he drove up to Parliament house in his Rolls Royce. Bloomberg however is surrounded by an EGO ... bigger than Trump and so many ass kissing people ... 

Its going to be fun. I hope he fails to get 15% in any state .... ZERO delegates and has blown 800 million USD.

This next few weeks on the Democrat selection to run against Trump is going to be amusing and I think astounding. The debate that just went on, the audience ... paid $1,750 to $3,200- to sit there so ... well Bloomberg appears to have paid for all tickets and when Sanders spoke ... at times boo.s even when he was talking about things 90% of people want.... same for Warren ... Bloomberg who, well ...  go find a rock with a dog poo on it and its more interesting, he opened his mouth ... clapping.

Basically ... the Democratic party leadership in the USA is so corrupt ... its stopped representing the people.

Possible it evaporates in 2020 .... as they try to sabotage someone who will cut off their political donations via rich and corrupt donors.

In a week .... all will  be clearer.

To fix the pipes in Flint Michigan the LEAD pipes Bloomberg could have spent 55 million to do that instead of 800 million ... USD ... so 1.2 Billion AUD ....  just in case having paid 10% tax rate  for decades instead of 35% .... they will not try and take some back.

More I think about the likely USA mayhem as time goes on, the less it has to do with Australia.

CONV 19 ... Well if your over 80 ... its not good. If your under 50 the mortality rate is very low. 
I note Mike Pence who is the vice President and a religious nutjob in the USA has been put in charge. This is a far right religious person who DOES NOT BELIEVE IN SCIENCE.  By that he believes in creation and that we were created in 7 days. He denies climate science and in fact even ant VAXX ...

He is in charge ? Of Protecting the USA ?

I note Trump called the Virus a fake virus .... said during an isnane 60 minute ramble ... that he had been speaking for weeks to the team. He claimed only 15 cases in the USA. He was contradicted totally by the CDC prior to this and ... well he sacked the national security person meant to deal with epidemics months ago and did not replace them. 

Possibly the orange fake tan protects him ... but the number of cases, a lie ... on his part with 60 not 15 ... and the CDC warnings its likely ... more than likely it hits the USA. Since Trump is 70 plus ... he is at serious risk. Cure or vaccination and having an Anti VAxx person who denies science and prays for the rapture ... VP Mike Pence ... well Trump seemed to think USA was immune and a cure was weeks away. CDC said at best .... 6 months .... likely 12 months ...

Enuf ...
South Carolina on the 29th Feb so Sunday our time .... polls seem to have Biden increasing his lead ... this despite him lying about being arrested with Nelson Mandela. or trying to visit him .... a total lie ...  and having to retract it. Most voters around 59% of the Democrats there are African American. Basically the corporate media is against anyone who will tax either the rich or the corporations.

hence my cynicism ... and disdain. EAT THE RICH .... not our billionaires ... not all as generous as Andrew but they PAY TAX here in OZ.

I dont doubt Biden leads, he was leading by 31% a few months ago. Even I would be stunned if Bernie won this state. 

Elizabeth Warren has sunk her ship. Sadly so.
Pete Butegieg is ... well .. as popular with non whites as hair found in food.
Styer ... will withdraw after Tuesday saving some face having spent 200 mio USD or 300 mio ...
Tulsi is still in but has no hope .... 
Oh Amy .... well she has no hope, in fact none. 

There remain 3 .... Biden ... Bloomberg if you believe the polls ,,, and Bernie Sanders.

I dont believe Bloomberg holds any chance .... in fact his full backing of Bush in 2004 and speaking at the Republican convention ... not the democratic one is the absurd thing about his running for anything after incarcerating hundreds of thousand non whites on NY ... is a joke. HE is patronizing, racist .... and so far right he makes Modi in India and the current orange Yam look tame.

Biden ... well ... he has zero chance verses Trump and his record of telling fibs .... is as bad a Trump.

If Bernie as I suspect wins 2020 ... well ... the insane near doubling to 3,400 n the S+P 500 will ... see it likely ... having a cow. It of course depends upon the senate and since the senate in the USA just did not impeach a person who clearly obstructed the investigation, and the people outside the top 10%   are in  dire straights ..... it is possible ... very unlikely ... but possible even in 2020 the Senate leadership changes to Democratic. God help the market if they have to pay tax.

Unlikely ... for a lot of reasons in 2020 .... even if say Democrats win ... be it Sanders or Biden and I hope not Bloomberg and very outside Warren chance. Likely ... mid terms 2022 possibly 2024 even if Democrats win and that's a big IF ... given the money against them winning.

Stranger things have happened.
Would be nice not to have the president threatening 3 different nations with Nuclear destruction.
Threatening all 28 EU nations and just hanging up on Boris on  the phone in the UK.

This is NOT normal ...
It is abnormal and actually insane.

People wonder why others get trapped inside abusive relationships. This is the NEW abnormal. The world is actually suffering PTSD and Stockholm syndrome along with being codependent. Want a USA company to pay tax ....  well we are going to impose 100% tariffs on you. Your wine sucks and USA wine is far better than French ranted the USA president. He is a non drinker. One moment I live you ... next I hate you .... your trapped inside an abusive relationship and instead of enforcing boundaries and say NO ... and telling them to PISS off ... all boundaries are gone. Love letters from a madman who executes people by using anti aircraft guns ? Yesterday in India another ramble and claiming 14 million Muslims in India now are 200 million. Since there were 100 million in 1980 and 13% of the population and now 15% of the population I was unable to find when prior to 1900 there were a mere 14 million Muslims in India. Trump said it was recent and I suspect since Pakistan was only split off in 1947 I would have to go back to 1800 for 14 million Muslims.

Strange times.
Sorry rambling but sharing my 2020 ... and next few weeks look into the future for what its worth.

Unlikely even IF Democrats win 2020 they get power of both houses so tax for the rich unlikely till 2022. Things however will change and radically even without this.
All the Trump removal of rules will be reversed.

Inserting times as always. As I type the USA had a 2% range at 3 am New York time on the 28th Feb..

Suspect also the central banks to ACT ... and act in a serious way. Act in a coordinated way. Ours to 0.5% or even 0.25% ... USA down by 0.5% if not more .....

Not all bad news.
Sadly .... for the non delusional ... the Revolution is under way and yep ... I suspect the peasants are revolting at last in the USA.

Have fun


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## basilio (6 March 2020)

The volatility of stock markets is having an affect on the players.
IMV I wonder when the pressures of juggling debt and  responding to a brutally contracting real economy  because of the corona virus finally hits home ?

* Wild stock-market swings are ‘emotionally and intellectually wearing’ on Wall Street *
 
 Published: March 5, 2020 at 3:39 p.m. ET
By
*Mark DeCambre*
* 1,000 points here, 1,000 points there, and now you’re taking about real stock moves *
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...-pace-for-its-best-week-since-2011-2020-03-04


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## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

I made the mistake of allowing show ignored post.
My phone screen is too small to scroll that much.
I am quite partial to rants myself but when posts are that long, i doubt this can be anything but garbage, in any case, no one will read it good or bad, get concise FFS


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## basilio (9 March 2020)

All ords down 243 points

I wonder how many stop losses have been triggered? I think margin calls would be coming in thick and fast.


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## Dona Ferentes (9 March 2020)

basilio said:


> All ords down 243 points
> 
> I wonder how many stop losses have been triggered? I think margin calls would be coming in thick and fast.



11am ... another leg down

(the intra-day will confirm this)


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## kahuna1 (5 April 2020)

CV19 is special.

MERS and SARS as some are aware was hard to spread, via one showed symptoms to be able to.
As such a perfectly normal person walked around and when ill, and only ill was infectious.

CV19 whilst WHO some may think dropped the ball, or China, reality is by 30 Dec 2019 weeks after first infection WHO despite being lobotomized by USA and cuts, issued its first warning then again 8th Jan and for the 5th time ever .... 30th Jan 2020 a full emergency.

Whilst having opinions.... facts verses actions and science dictates.
Why WHO declared an emergency was contained in the 30th Jan release. CV19 was twice as infectious as SARS and MERS ... and spread when no sign of infection was evident via symptoms making it whilst less life threatening than its closest relations, 10 times more deadly via diabolical spread rates.

I would agree, we have NOT even started, we are in act1 science one in relation to the impacts and ending of this event.

Each nation chose to act. Australia acted accordingly and whilst not berserk like others like South Korea even our March 1 total tests was 100 times USA response. they had done 2,000 tests for 329 million people, Canada and other similar.

With a vaccine a long way off, longer than I thought at 9 months till meaningful deployment and likely 12 or more, we go into hibernation for a long while. Globally still DENIAL is the common theme. Being locked up for 6 weeks will NOT stop outbreaks popping up again and again till a vaccine is out there. A Prophylactic or Antiviral agent that works if infected or the former protects from getting infected, is NOT going to occur sooner than a vaccine.

MERS and SARS were a massive hit to Asia but quite different animals. In the end via testing people who developed symptoms and only then became contagious the two closest relations die out on their own.

SARS did get a vaccine. SARS1, and not one spoken about much because despite an awful mortality rate the vaccine was WORSE than the virus itself so to be blunt that's bloody hard when it already was deadly. Of course we are 2020 and not 2003, still without time and to see side effects and all of them via new vaccine or therapy, its clear any shortcuts will and likely will be a mistake.

The world is in two camps, economically and socially with developed nations. A displayed indifference for the welfare of the masses and those who are NOT. At this time. already strained relations are going bust. Stealing masks of one nation off the Tarmac or hijacking, paying 300% in cash for something already paid for is NOT going to help. Attacking China and we all have faults, their system and choice of goverment did as best one might expect being rational in sharing the new bug .... WHO releases show that and the timeline.

What we did and other nations did and cope is sadly displayed, with living horror in one case. Social norms of kissing on the cheek and CV19, early cases via large populations can even under normal rates see 1 person at them infecting 3 every 5 days ... in 50 days that's 59,000 infections.

We love om a word where science is denied. In fact if it doesn't suit us, attacked. CV19 really does have no political party and really cares not at all about BS.

It lives happily inside us at 37C and lives well at much greater temps. So expecting it to go away or be defeated is an absurdity. Shut up peasants BACK to work for $10 an hour !!

I am happy not to live in such a place. Of course most will deny till their face turns blue and not about to waste time of effort with them. Canada right next door to the USA, first infection 4 days after USA acted quite differently and society and tax much like our own. If one multiplies their population by say 10 you have the USA. USA magically claimed it knew, actions speak far louder as do now even crries to get back to work peasants.

This virus is a game changer globally. We will emerge, low debt to GDP adding 50% MORE will still leave us at HALF m0st nations totals and overall including tax we collect from rich and poor a total with super of around 38% tax. NZ our bestie similar .... EU nations same but mush higher Debt levels. They however took the effort to REDUCE post GFC, face ugly choices as did we, higher contributions for many latter retirement age and slashing payouts on some pensions.'

Eu same thing and our budget was to balance this year ... EU has been doing so for 8 years.. USA well ... a 5% Deficit 10 years post GFC ? and tax not slightly rising but tax cuts that went 92% to the top 10%.

Golly gee ,,,, they like all others .. will take a hit. Will the peasants go back to work ? Will the world endure a nation likely to be 30 trillion in debt over a much lower GDP size than now so likely 160% Debt to GDP and a mere 12% likely being collected in tax ?

Who will nations lend to ? An EU one average at 135% debt to GDP and 40% tax .... or one with $160- and $12 income but wanting to spend $20-

Trump and he is no different than Obama and Bush or Clinton just wall street investment bank types of a different color. They DEMAND you lend to them

I am sure the French region hardest hit will forget 20 million masks taken from the Tarmac as will Germany and Canada .... having expected supplies ... stopped.

In the GFc 3 banks came clean and declared they were in effect broke .... late 2007. Same assets identical bonds on every banks books and ... as such if one was marking them to market and the the rest ... were also broke. Market reported 5% plus GDP growth that week ... really ? Market did fall ... 15% only to recover as all is well was trumpeted to 3% off all time highs. On and on and ON it went. The problem was in plain sight at the start. Amusing to get a billion into AMBC the bond insurer when it had 10 billion in losses it had already ... it got an AAA rating just like Australia which had NO federal debt not a cent and AMBAC was broke 9 months latter.

Expect the same, in fact, WORSE. China relations were poor with USA and so too every other nation either bullied or stolen from by USA sponsored tax theft. Australia did better than most and got about 20% of the tax Google took via 472 million settlement. The USA tax cuts halving USA tax paid is the sole reason why USA stock rose above all others. NO other reason ... or other than state protected tax theft that saw USA threaten 100% tax on French wines if they god forbid got Google or Facebook to pay tax.

Oh the world is changing and post CV19 ... all with HIGHER debt to GDP over a decade as in the past by prudent management it will be reduced. NO longer will the gloves be feather filled when discussing state sponsored and protected global tax theft. France will, nor will Germany ... tolerate it. Being polite and tolerating USA laughing at the Trumpist who really is not different from Obama who also was just a Treasury controlled by Goldman Sachs, so too Clinton Bush and on and on.

I have disgust and extreme regret for the common USA people and what their leaders and imbecile has done to them. Sadly with not much functioning free media and basically FOx news on every channel, even glancing at an adjoining country Canada and their CV19 results will not enter their minds.

Market for now, USA will deny ... dispute and well ... I am sure funding another 25% of the GDP via a slush fund to support non global tax payers will go down like Dick Smith float in future years.

Governments and good ones, and nations have billionaires and rich. Some inherit and some make it by brilliance. What defines and differentiates EU and UK and NZ and virtually all others is that they get taxed at a HIGHER rate and not a lower one. Not to penalize brilliance or punishment ... they pay their fair share. Some of our own billionaires I like, some I despise as the self serving people they are. BUT ... they PAY tax contribute to society and NOT play god and spend $876 million USD with a sole goal and thats to STOP tax to the rich. Bloomberg didn't even get a Tshirt for that.

Things, often take generations or events to change.
We have one that, well ... is unique and relationships globally already frayed are now I suspect shredded. No amount of apology will change recent events and even more racist comments via chief troll.

I cry for the lack of any comprehension or caring whilst denying CV19, doing NOT a thing, 2,000 tests and Canada compared did 100 times that adjusted ... its too late ... TOO LATE ... to advert.
Now its a victory if 100,000 die ? I like and respect and love Yanks, most with about 5,000 on the nose and likely more, a tiny fraction now rule.

Other nations, the NEEDS of the many outweigh the needs or need of the one or few.

We are, in not in denial, its often when inside an abusive relationship the awful becomes normal. Its like a dream, did someone just assassinate a leader flying to another nation ? Or did a nation politely ask and other with a spy plane over its soil, rather than shooting it down, to leave ? Did the worlds richest man never pay a dividend, never pay tax anywhere ?

Times they are a changing. Of course, resistance as the Borg say, is FUTILE. of course with every billion they possess they will sadly in the case of the USA expect and demand the rest of the world fund their debt, not ask even for pennies form their profits overseas and BOW ... and then fund their slush fund to bail out tax criminals.

Its going to be FUN to watch. TAKE THE PAIN NOW ... early and well ... a vaccine is not possible inside 12 months. As such, the impacts I gave are an AT best, and an at best impact in the stock market is not anywhere near current levels.

I note now the USA oil industry is to be bailed out via Tariffs and all oil at $60- a barrel because USA break even is that. Wonder who will bear the brunt and who will bear the benifits ? We and EU and most others already have petrol with massive inbuilt tariffs and stuff. Then again we have a functioning healthcare system ... we have decent roads, good education and good support if you get sick via income or loose your job.

GET BACK TO WORK .... NOW ... PEASANT ... I need my burgers .. the virus I defeated it at 15 cases and the rest is fake news.

See Donald when he announced 100,000 deaths likely, he spent 15 minutes talking about his ratings.
What a caring fellow he is. Amusing 7 minutes about how we love his wife Mealaiananan .. whoops Ivanka. Oh boy ... they started with a C grade movie guy Regan and now a game show host and slum lord running the effort Ivankas pretend Husband JJJJAaaarod,

NOW .... clean my boots ... BOY !! and that racists term is for anyone non Trump like of any background race and creed even white dumb folks called Kiwi's whoops ,,, Ozzies ...

Find a rock and HIDE in a financial sense. What is left standing in 12 months will not resemble o matter the governments efforts what is standing today. As yet to be reflected in stocks let alone eventual mayhem from overseas and peasants refusing to serve Trump his burger and his tantrum.

Upside ? well we just had the dead cat bounce !!

My worst case, outlook is NOW my best case result 14 days latter. Of course we are miles away from a best case low and worst case ... is well .... I dont want to think that far ahead.

Doomsday preppers seem sane right now so ... well if that's true even for an instant, golly !!


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## sptrawler (5 April 2020)

For anyone who is feeling down about things, or if you know someone that is struggling, there is help available, reach out and ask.
https://www.beyondblue.org.au/the-facts/suicide-prevention/worried-about-someone-suicidal


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## sptrawler (5 April 2020)

With regard the thread 'Top of this cycle', I think we can well and truly pencil that one in.


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## kahuna1 (23 April 2020)

We sit ...
And patience is needed.

USA in total denial as per normal much like early 2008 if not worse.I find it surreal to see the USA response was about bailing out companies and ignoring the people.

Sadly so.I dont expect change, its too far gone. Biden is much like Obama and Bush and Trump. Same ... goals. Not a thing to do with the common good just the few.

TO see USA act overseas and treat its great people with equal contempt was evident prior to CV19. 
A vaccine is a long way off at best.

USA locked down last, has the most infections and wants to re-open first.
Despite an awful toll its learnt nothing. Not a single thing. 

This article sets out the actions and timeline.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/polit...america-982944/

USA and with Trump as the leader, has no patience and NO respect for science or humans other than their own self interest.

CV19 is a virus, no feeling and in fact a pathological desire to replicate. Much like Trumps pussy grabbing. 
Sadly the virus eats stupid idiots, bigots and spits them out with ease.

Some Republican states who really did not full close down, infected at worlds worst rates just opened up fully for business. Georgia and by Monday you can go to the movies, get a tattoo, and everything is back to normal.

In the meantime, those not in the top 20%, all benifits and goverment help is missing in action. Either you work, or you starve. Sadly the imbeciles who demand this will likely have very low paid workers preparing their food, living likely in cramped houses with many and .... well ... stupidity as Boris from the UK found out does not make you immune to CV19.

Strange to watch the end of an empire and the total denial by a delusional dictator who gives himself 10/10 for his actions.The rest of the world, struggles with CV19 and one thing has changed. USA, once a great nation, is now the fool one sits in the corner and tell them to shut up. The world, forever changed, well not quite. I note Mr Potato head PM Morrison now parroting Mr Trump and right wing ideology word for word from Trump ... who parrots Fox news or Sky or the Australian.

Sadly ... despite doing a better job with CV19 than the bush fires, it seems .... we are just muppets for Mr Trump and his policies.

Since MR Trump is encouraging them to go back to work, I am sure the CV19 will respect his wishes. Trump actually said today he thought the virus might go totally away in 3 months. I thought he said that 3 months ago and well ... likely 100,000 deaths this time ... didn't make him blink, lets try again ?

Congratulations Mr Morrison for your lackey status. Maybe another White House dinner and we can put you, Mr Morrison, in quarantine for 2 years ?

Sigh ...

Patience and sadly all will be revealed.


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## kahuna1 (26 April 2020)

Been thinking ...
which is dangerous,
Having studied the USA healthcare system for many years and ... well ... given up on its lack of humanity, its met a foe that will alter the USA.

USA about to hit 1 million CV19 cases. That is assured very soon. Deaths at 54 k and USA rubbish models have them stopping at 67 k and none beyond the 3rd July, ... all done by self interest healthcare industry types or far right people ....

*Minimum deaths USA first wave 128k by 30th June 2020.Cases reported over 1.6 million *

Since USA has seen fit not to cover people for wages ... or support ... only bailed out industries, you may have noted massive lines at food banks because people are literally starving. Either work or STARVE ...

No choice .... some states like say Georgia only fully locked down on the 3rd April opened back up partially 24 th April and fully open 27th April.

Similar for Texas and Florida and 19 other States.
Literally the leaders only concerned about their share portfolio could not give a damm about the people. Nothing new there.

I didn't expect change and media driven by advertising dollar, politicians by political donations and lobbyist .... rich got not one but two tax cuts so far in 2020 ... in the midst of a pandemic.

For the 11 million illegals they have no healthcare and no support via unemployment ... they go and get hospital care or a test and it runs into the chance ICE will deport them. For another now 86 million have NO healthcare ..... 80 million awful Medicaid and even those with medical insurance only the test is covered. Most have things called deductibles and at around $3,000 then co payments .... of $1,500 - the first $4,500 each year is on them,

Amusingly no media will cover this in the USA or anywhere else. Put against a virus, that really does not care, much like Trump and in fact 95% of the USA leadership both sides, a perfect breeding ground for CV19.

As such, I believe USA not only will hit 1.5 million infected but without much doubt 3 million. Deaths and not counting the ones they dont count will top ... wait for it ... 250k by end of 2020.
Easy math. Person even sick either starves or works. Working when highly infected is never a good idea other than in the USA.Of course USA stock market seems to think its business as usual and all will be bailed out. They have to some extent and even healthcare companies raising premiums by 40% next year is to be accepted.

None of this is rocket science when USA is adding 35k new CV19 people a day officially and likely double that ... outside it.

At say 1.5 k deaths for the next 35 days till end of May ... its up over 100k and say 130 end of June 2020.

If they think because Mr Trump has a new cure, Malaria drug that killed more or now bleach and its safe .... they are to be pitied.Clearly .... if they go back to work without testing and testing MORE than any other nation because ... STUPID ... they are the most infected nation on the planet, things will NOT go well.

Vietnam killed around 64k Americans, its assured CV19 is double that Yes some sadly would have died but less than half the June total of say 130k if they acted, without stupidity, extreme arrogance and contempt.

Nothing ... saddens me more than what they have done, and are about to do. Yes lets get a haircut and since CV19 is 5 times more alive and well in the USA than here, I find this astounding. Lets get a tatoo or your nails done !!

I have never seen a nation decide to kill 150,000 more people.

Then again USA real life expectancy using the correct one for Latinos is 75 not 78.6 .... so on average 329 million people lost 8 years of life verses Australia since 1980. All so Mr Gates didn't have to pay tax nor Buffett or Bloomberg or Bezos.

This however ... is open as opposed to smearing statistics. Possibly the toll will be VASTLY higher than my numbers.

It will not be lower end of 2020.
Leaders of USA and CEOS dont care.

Get back to work and work for shitty healthcare coverage if your lucky, but work and die in vast numbers they will.
One salon ... hair salon .... one infected cutter they infect 3 other workers and then they cut 10 a day ? Go forth and multiply. The person making your dinner ... is likely living sharing with many others, with no healthcare or awful cover and wow ... gee can I have a sandwich with the works ?
One of course is a human tragedy. Another is the world watching with disbelief.

Lastly and least important is its effect on equities and the economy in the USA.

I always find it cheaper to not fill the tanks when I go flying and actually ... not use the brakes when going down a steep hill when driving.What is stunning is the carnage already caused in the USA is being met with quite idiotic media and corporate self interest cries to go back to work mixed with workers being blackmailed via no support and needing desperately to work and ... well ... die.

This is not going to be even close to any experience post 1800. Whilst I suspect most nations will fare as well as can be expected, some like USA and UK .... those two are heading for the bleach and cups to drink it from.

Patience and CV19 is very very patient with idiots.

*Minimum deaths USA first wave 128k by 30th June 2020.Cases reported over 1.6 million 

DOUBLE it for end of 2020 !!! *


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## kahuna1 (27 April 2020)

Following mainly about oil .... asked for a view ...

For what its worth 


**********************************************************************
Howdy ....

Well its Sunday in the USA and as per normal no reporting of deaths or people with virus .... hence the sudden drop ... each Sunday same stuff.

Agreed they have massive issues for some time. Basically they don't care. Its only about white .... old rich people and CEO's .... nothing else.CV19 has a gift for them ... I note one of the main people and groups is led by Koch Brother Heritage foundation along with many other large self interested groups.

OIl .... oooh ... well technology and USA allowing the dirtiest of all oil to be produced .... Tar Sands in 2006 when George Junior declare it legal and Kyoto went out the window added part of USA's current stuff all stance. Other is of course new technology and shale oil being able to drill sideways and again no oversight and all environmental rules gone .... so they can frack till they bleed and do so.

Both very expensive and energy hogs so a nightmare for environment but, well .... they don't care ... about that.

We did have peak oil .... some time ago ... Peak Traditional oil ... that is vs a non traditional oil production say shale oil or tar sands. By opening tar sands and then fracking there now is about 150 years of supply. More than you think .... because old oil fields with tight structures ... well now you can frack them and drill and then fracture the structure and get close to 95% of the contained oil out over time.

This .... has come at a price and around $60- USD break even for this new production and the traditional oil is getting more expensive as well for the USA as its more than likely off shore verses onshore and that comes at a higher price.

USA oil production last time I looked massively up .... around 15% of global production and that's 15 million barrels a day. I think they still use somewhere near 20 million barrels so they do import .... but far far less.

Basically the USA and its reliance on imported oil is massively down. Demand globally despite some decent growth has been very little. Tiny in fact and the USA extra production has produced a glut. there already was a glut post 2010 ....

More efficient cars and so on.

USA response was to let Libya get invaded and cut their supply ... when that didn't work ... invent a reason to cut Venezuela off ... and since they have the largest reserves .... and Koch brothers got .... a refinery they lost there, revenge works ... well it didn't and there was no crisis ... but now there is one due to sea blockade and embargo .... Cause and effect back to front.

Still not enough.... so invent a crisis with Iran and they were complying with inspections for nuclear side, much like Iraq was when USA claimed ... WMD's but none were found ... and yet another oil supplier cut off.

Basically ... if at some stage Libya sorted itself out ... adds more supply ... Iran sanctions eased or ... better still the rest of the world Ignores the USA and its policies and then demands nuclear inspections and compliance .... its a good thing for everyone in the world. Venezuela and whilst not a fan of these regimes in Iran or Venezuela ... USA is run by a dictator who is just about to kill 150,000 more Americans.

Bottom line, USA really does not care about life .... for any nation and its own self interest is not about the people who would benefit from cheaper oil, its about the donations of the Koch family and oil interests.

USA has been trying to goad Iran into acting and taking out Saudi Arabian oil and the rest of the gulf ... which given the sociopath in the the White house is still on the cards.

If we just remain here, no change .... there is a massive already over capacity on the supply side. Yes traditional well will run out over time, but things now not operating due to low prices such as the tar sands of Canada will resume at say $60- USD a barrel and as such the topside barring a war event is limited for say 5-10 years ... and unlikely without massive currency devaluation to rise too far for too long up above say $70- USD.

That USA is run by self interest groups and ... well the 0.1% .... anything goes and that a million die in Libya ... so what. Oh they got NATO to green light that one ... Asked to leave Iraq after murdering an Iraqi militia leader ... USA said no ... oh and the Iranian General there as well on an official visit to Iraq Prime minister on his invitation .... Poof ... your gone.

Not sure any of this is relevant given the extreme events of late and USA acting more like a regime under a dictator and its genocidal actions to its own people and to basically every other nation as they go USA first, post CV19 ... I suspect the world stands united against USA and its self interest.

Then again ... who the hell knows.

I note and have noted a lot of hot air about fracking and whilst CSG ... coal seam gas is fracking a shallow coal deposit which is ABOVE the water table ... and as such the nasty chemicals they use can and do often seep into the water table, oil fracking is DEEP ... below the water table and as such risk of contamination is close to zero. Then again, most amusing have no idea when they write articles about the risk. Of course fracking does seem to cause earthquakes .... due to fracturing underlying structures and so on.

Where to from here ? Oil ... well with every tanker and storage tank at full and capacity, cut supply a mere 10% ? .... its NOT enough. Air travel unlikely to resume in any meaningful way in 2020 .... and subdued other demand so that ... stored up oil and what is still an oversupply of at least 10% for now verses demand ... needs to be shut down.

Compliance as always is an issue and OPEC members have a vast history of lying. 

As such, nothing compelling for now about oil. Sure it may double .... it may halve .... but that over supply hang is still out there. For some OPEC members their reliance upon oil money is dire and ... well ... some can produce at double the rate they are today.
Hope that helps ?


Who knows .... its a seriously nutty world and I took my loss on the single oilier I had. I do not like the optics longer term in the say 2-3 year region with oil likely to be subdued for some time and their needs and financing .... requires much higher oil prices. Some seem to think this will go away, oil .... with CV19 .... but sadly ... the oversupply side has been going on for some time.


Have fun


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## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

Hi,
I wish I had the answers.USA basically bailed out the big end of town.
Small people have a choice, work or starve. 

You may have noticed reports the virus has mutated ? It has and whilst still not peer reviewed enough there are virtually no dissenting views. None of value.

USA is testing at 240k per day and getting 10% positives.
Italy and France and Spain getting 2% positives and Germany 1%.
Australia and NZ a very different scenario and we are getting 0.1% or 1 in a 1,000 positives. 

You may have noted one of the best medical systems Singapore has lost control .... with infections. It has hope of getting back on track.
USA has no interest in this. Remdesivir does not work, flat out does not ... nor did the malaria drug .... nor bleach ... or whatever BS Trump or UK Boris may push.

It is draining to listen and watch. Both, well Trump has a mental disorder. A mere month ago it was back to work for Easter. Easter Sunday seems like 50 years ago but was April 12th 2020..
USA has had 800,000 more infections and 50,000 more deaths.'

Today, to distract you ... Trump is again claiming victory and its safe mulling over when to disband the virus task force when the virus has mutated into something that spreads more quickly !! 

I would prefer to be an optimist but I am not delusional. USA at 24,000 infections a day and more than Italy ... needs to be testing for 330 million at 500k plus a day. If not more.,
This new strain is looking like its one that possibly one can get time and time and time again. I hope not, the virus is new and data is new so we hope not.

Since Trump congratulated himself at 4,000 cases ... and now at 1.2 million doing it again, deaths and infections seem not to matter. They do however to those not in the rarefied air of Trump tower. 

I note UK and USA now claiming to be doing a trade deal. Since the UK has yet to even agree on Brexit final details, and Boris ... like Trump looking like an idiot for CV19 ... this is absurd. A trade deal with a nation 6 hours away via fast jet ? This to one side, these deals are complex and take years. Years because they can breach other deals and well without Brexit with the EU ... its impossible to do any deal

Australia and our dear NZ friends likely go close to getting rid of this Virus. Fingers crossed. Download the app ... Google can locate you within 1 meter at all times and half the apps you have on your phone have GPS turned on ... 

This said, the road out will still be tough for Australia. No overseas travel for 12-18 months ? A vaccine and one especially coming form the USA without TIME and clinical trials stages 1.2.3.4 ... takes TIME> shortcuts lead to ... worse outcomes. Try the Bleach first !! 

USA narrative is via Trump ... and corporate media on the main its safe. Being locked up for 27 days ...EU nations for 50 ... does give you zero immunity. Less so for USA. Neither for Australia but with zero new cases for say 14 days ... then 28 .... I will be feeling quite safe. Still no overseas tourists, no students .... and well ... the rest of the world is in a far worse place.

UK reported 97% fall in car sales ... yep sure one month.Its cases have as yet to peak ... so its not coming out of lock-down in May ... 
Just sticking to cars ,,, so another poor month of sales.After that ... sure some pent up buying but twice as many without income or worried about it and their job future .... hmm at best for the year car sales down 2 months ... bad 97% and then say 70% and a few at minus 20% .... and then the rest at minus 10% .... down 20% plus year on year ?

Then take say ship building ... no cruise liners being ordered .... no tankers ... not with oil well below break even ... as for the absurd USA tech prices ... business will use windows 3 version from 1996 ... rather than the latest ... 

Las Vegas ... golly ... it only exists for tourists and if its open again, well ... unless your mad ... down 70% this year ? I know Trump idiots are just that but ... maybe a bit better ... but it will be a smoking crater at best.

Fed and Trump .... gave one massive tax cut to the rich already ... bailed out the big end of town and ... well ... ignored the small end. Not sure what the small end will do with 500,000 deaths by end of 2020. That's the top end of my numbers. Likely with extreme regret its 250k. Around 128k by June 30th 2020.

*These are humans*. As yet, there has not been time to reflect and dwell on many counties in the USA, large ones .... not just NY but ones in New Jersey and Connecticut with 2.5% plus infected. Insane levels 5 times Italy. 

As always I reduce into rallies. Sometimes and ... at times like this, a miracle is not possible. Sorry but its a virus. Yes one cure may show promise and some being tested, are showing some improvements ... without awful side effects like Gileads Resmidivir. The mortality rate actually appears to be 150% of NOT using it but the USA just approve it for use without even a clinical trial that is blind tested .... they actually just removed those who ... were having extreme reactions and dying. The drug actually costs a mere $10- a day to make and say $100- .... is going to sell for USD $4,500 a course.
IT does NOT work ... never did. ...
Most doctors know this, but, well greed and the USA body overseeing the drug is ... controlled by paid for Gilead people. Some declared it ... most did not, people doing the study reported, paid for associates and one for over 20 years, not mentioned of course in the clinical trial study.

*This is the world of Trump. *

Pre GFC I was talking about stimulating the corpse and giving the cancer patient aspirin. That was Bush .... Obama was not much better. Just better PR. Under Trump ... no aspirin for the ill, just a nice shot of bleach.

I do have a secret cure for Covid 19 .... dont tell anyone ... eat asparagus ... then the real secret is drink your own pee. In fact bathe in it ... and if you can surgically get a catheter inserted into your nether regions ... and a bag with a straw so you can sip sip away. Bathing in it ... well it takes care of social distancing and if only these neo liberal arrsehhhollles ... would try my remedy they would too stop reproducing and since they have already mutated into a lower form, its solves many problems.

But keep it a secret and the Asparagus is key !! It makes it more pungent. 

I await Trumps next magic cure or utterance. I do wish someone would dose him with my secret cure. Diet Coke Mr President ? A long list of these types needs my cure. 

Since Mr Trump sat there a few weeks ago and awarded funding ... like Shark tank ... he sat ... heard their proposals and well one company which has NEVER produced a vaccine and NEVER produced a drug, but was convincing and promised action and testing within 2 months, MR Trump awarded them a company called Moderna ? I think ... USD $483- million. Please do not tell anyone about my secret cure.

I have high hopes of winning a bet that I can both get $100- million in funding and make the President of the USA drink my pee .... 

I wonder what I will charge per course, its all natural ... strictly enforces social distancing and ... well if Gilead can sell something at 50 times cost and its sells another AIDS drug at 100 times what it sells overseas ... hmm .... $5,000 a dose ? Here Try some Mr Pence ... Mr Munckin ... I dont have enough pee for all of them !!

Better make it $10,000 a dose as they love something rare.


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## kahuna1 (20 May 2020)

This is absurd.

USA is reporting about 23,000 Convid19 new cases a day.

Canada and UK are having about 50% that rate per million population.

Germany and Italy are having about 10% that rate per million population.

Australia and New Zealand are reporting 1% of the USA rate of infections.

EU and Aus and NZ locked down for double the time.

USA is opening up with on the main less restrictions than every other nation,
with 10 times more infections being identified each day verses EU.

Yesterday USA announced some vaccine showed promise. It may or may not work, about 5% of stage one trails make it to being approved. At the same time President DR Trump announced he was taking a dangerous drug for malaria which has now being scientifically tested in 5 studies with diabolical results.

That USA recently announced another drug worked, which again has massive and extreme side effects, yet half the approval board was either in the employ of the drug company or had been. This new Vaccine, so far only a director of the company now resigned is running the USA government development program for Covid19 vaccine. No conflict of interest seen at all !!!

Are we to believe this new vaccines results are real ? The last drug, an anti viral has NOT released the full study a even month latter. What was released, was not a control group study, it was not blind tested and serious side effects were removed from results just to name a few things. It was even OPEN LABEL making it more of a joke. Oh and the trial was run under the drug companies supervision. Nothing like cherry picking who is included. A total farce !!

Is this new vaccine one with promise ? When the President of the USA is actually promoting a dangerous drug proven to be fatal ? Is it bleach or some other insane cure ?

Of course the narrative is go back to work USA, its safe. The vaccine company did say possibly by January 2021 they MAY have a vaccine.

That is at best, maybe … possibly … 5% chance given past 2000 odd clinical trials that get approved from stage 1 and the USA thinks its safe ?

We have NO idea right now how long these antibodies even last. NONE. About 4 weeks is the longest measured time so far.

Too hard to work out what is hot air and reality.

Meanwhile, USA locked down for half the time will send its workers back. Some states encourage people to report people NOT going back to their jobs.

This with 10 times more infected people being identified than Germany and Italy ?

100 times more than Australia and NZ ?

And maybe, maybe in 8 months 10 days, so 255 days, MAYBE there is a vaccine which will take months to deploy at best.

What happens in those 255 days, if not quite a bit longer, till a valid vaccine is found ?

Germany and EU nations are being ultra cautious as they open back up as is Australia and NZ. Will America get more or less infections post this date than Germany or Italy adjusted for population ?

Does American leadership even care ? Clearly via action not at all !!

Whilst its irrelevant for now if this vaccine works eventually, we likely face 8 plus more months of extreme social distancing for those outside Australia and NZ. How far does the USA go from 90,000 deaths reported in the meantime ?

I suspect in years to come this period will be studied by historians and others with complete disbelief at the reality here, now, today USA time 18th May 2020.

Whilst positive the Moderna results, that they produced antibodies in animal testing already was known. Hardly a big thing that the same occurs in human apes as opposed to tests the already did on monkeys.

Second there are 100 or so vaccines under investigation, of which 8 outside China and 4 inside are in stage one trials. OF them including Moderna around 5 show promise. Two of them are Chinese.

Stage one trials are to make sure the vaccine does not kill people or cause massive side effects. This Moderna trial was on 8 people.

OF stage one trials, only 5% make it to a vaccine or drug being approved. Possibly this number will be higher, but its unlikely. Reason being, is that in stage 2,3 trails many are found to show promise initially, but fail when tested more widely.

A vaccine that kills 1 person in 500 is not an effective vaccine. At this stage we have no idea if the antibodies supposedly shown actually protect against infection. Again a crucial question. Does it work on elderly people and if so how well ? Vaccines tend to not be as effective, ever, on elderly people.

The list of questions yet to be answered is massive. Whilst yes, getting antibodies is a positive, its virtually meaningless at this stage. As 2020 progresses its likely of the 100 vaccines under development we see likely half of them enter clinical trials. I DO remain positive about a vaccine being found over time, but, relaxing and rejoining in the meantime for a very infected nation is idiotic. Virus is holding it own party for the imbeciles.

One hand one must have hope there is a vaccine yet to be found that will work. Realistically an at best time frame is not January 2021 but mid 2021 for a meaningful deployment and vaccination of people to be making any impact.

Think about that, think about a person touting an already proven to be dangerous Malaria drug in charge of anything to do with a vaccine being developed. Are you kidding ?

If your reading this from a high infection nation where the virus is very active and widespread, social distance. Wear a bloody mask. Even entering a lift with 7 people in it when infection rates are 100 times our own is a game of Russian roulette.

That a vaccine MAY or may not be ready by January 2021 makes no difference if you get this virus prior to that date or more likely a July 1st 2021 realistic time for the vaccine being seriously deployed.

Lastly, yet again, people getting reinfected remains a thing that cannot be ignored. There are over 1,000 cases so far. One can pretend of course, however its becoming clear this question needs to be fully resolved. So too how long antibodies last after it. Again on the latter its appearing more encouraging, however people who get infected again or get sick again and again, is contradicting this. Did they get false negative tests when still actively infected ? Is it dead virus being shed, which cannot be the case for some who fall seriously ill weeks and now months after being released.

Too much delusional rubbish. Economic impacts on world economies are to be ignored in favour of a President who is promoting taking bleach ?

Denial, political BS … or being told something is irrelevant or incorrect whilst likely 200,000 more Americans die between now and the vaccine is sadly clear.

That's close to 300,000 dead Americans by end of January 2021 at best.Add to that around double that number with extreme long term damage to organs and lungs from the virus.

Will they elect someone who managed to test a total of 121 Americans by 1st March 2020 ?

On 5th March 2,188 tests for 330 million Americans is good ?

Or 8,332 tested by 10th March for 330 million people ?

Even by 15th March 2020 a mere 39,448- tests for 330 million people is and will always be pathetic.

One cannot write what one hopes for about President of the USA and touted magic cures along with self medication when the above numbers, and current actions, will likely KILL 300,000 Americans. About 250,000 MORE than would have occurred if they acted like German or NZ or Australia.

Pathetic whilst congratulating themselves every step of the way. Attacking and blaming everyone else, other nations, other parties, even officials he appointed. What does Hillary Clinton or Obama have to do with the virus ? Or a long list of others he attacks.

America has a real chance of dissolving prior to a vaccine being developed. People and its people, now worthless serfs do actually matter. They have worth. Since your not wearing a sign around your neck when infected, I would be concerned if I was one of those elites or imbeciles. No guns needed, just go to a protest march to liberate people and cough. Burger Mr President ?

Back when USA hit 125,000 deaths which is on or around June 26th 2020.



The rest, I cant watch any longer. I would wish it went away magically, like a child, reality and scientists tell a very sobering and clinically backed assured outcome for 2020. Is it time for another tantrum ? That works for many.


Whilst USA yet again tried the highs, the reality of this situation actually overrides ... EVERYTHING.

USA bailed out the big end of town, ignored the people. Corporate socialism. Tax cut of 100 billion for the rich ... slush fund for large corporations and bugger all for the small local stores or people. 

Meanwhile, the world looks upon the USA not for leadership or mirth laughing at the clown, its now pity. Pity ... people globally feel for the USA. I have no idea where say EU and USA trade is after this but if China USA trade is any guide its not going to be good.

Ignoring that, possibly a large high rise ... is now not worth much and deflation will occur ... irrespective of bailouts. Does the bond market tumble or the currency ? States and cities left to fend for themselves are now broke along with nearly all outside the top 20% .

One should of course support the economy at times like this but people first. That the USA actually believes it can rack up debt and promises to repay in unlimited size whilst slashing tax collected worked for Greece ... Argentina time and again so too hundreds of nations. 

With likely 5% more out of work for 5 years, and USA penchant for just removing them from being reported the tent  population on the streets most cities have is assured to explode. 

lets rally the USA stocks some more !!


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