# For bottom pickers and knife catchers



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

While a stock hitting all time lows or plunging dramatically is not necessarily a good stock recommendation, there are sometimes opportunities to be had from things oversold. 

I'm not sure if we're getting to the point of the market hitting a bottom, but it's time we longer term investors started looking at some potential value in the market, and where our cash could be directed. Bottom pickers. 

I think this thread could also cover stocks that look to have been sold off too much on sentiment, or fear, with no real fundamental foundation. Knife catchers.   

Of course, you'd have to give a reason for the nomination, in whatever basic form. FA and/or TA, or whatever, on why something has gone pear shaped but which might be a good opportunity. 

Any thoughts?


----------



## Bushman (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I like this thread. 

LPT's (or A-REIT's) have been sold down mercilessly by investors due to the screaming headlines achieved by stocks like Centro, Rubicon, AFG etc. 

Now with a Centro-type model, this has been fully justified. But in the rubble of the LPT-wreck, there are some great yield plays emerging where stocks have been sold down by association. So I will nominate LEP (ALE Property Group) for my bottom picker. Here is why: 
1. LEP has announced a full year distribution of 33.6 cps. At the current share price, this represents a yield of 11.39%! All distributions are also 100% tax deferred. See the announcement. 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080620/pdf/319r0jcypcwnt1.pdf
2. Now yield in itself is a historical measure and is meaningless in the case of say a Centro where future profits have been seriuosly impaired. The LEP distribution will not be impaired however as it owns a series of pubs that are let to AHL (a Woolworths subsidiary) on long-term leases. Indeed the portfolio WALE (weighted avg lease expiry) is *20.5 years*!!!! That is revenue growing at least at CPI locked in for 20 plus years. 
3. Capital values should therefore hold as most valuers would value these pubs as earnings/cap rate. Earnings are secure so no problem there. Cap rates should stay steady as longer-term leases are very attractive to investors. 
4. Debt matures in 6 years and interest rates are hedged for 11.6 years so there is no refinancing time bombs in the mix. 
5. There is no BNB type scenario as free portfolio cashflow covers 87% of the half year distribution. 

So, in summary, LEP should begin to appreciate in value as the very high yield is sustainable, there is limited refinancing risk, asset values should grow with CPI and the yield is not a 'manufactured' results a la BNB paying distributions through capital and borrowing. 

The bottom is in..... 

For resources, I am beginning to like some of the uranium and zinc stocks now: 
1. BMN; 
2. CUY; 
3. Kagara. etc 

Sold down on the underlying commodity price plummeting but it has now been overdone. Uranium will increase as coal/oil prices hit the stratoshpere. Zinc will have undersupply in 1 to two years. 

Good thread mate. You can really drive value if you pick 'em at the bottom.


----------



## CAB SAV (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Good one Kennas, I'll start with LLC, down from +$20 to $9.55. Down because of fear being classed in the fin service sector. Only 3 posts on this stock which is what I like. Most will miss the boat for a good long termer.
Check the posts on this, wont take long.
Seen half doz brokers recommendations, 2 hold 4 buy.


----------



## explod (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> While a stock hitting all time lows or plunging dramatically is not necessarily a good stock recommendation, there are sometimes opportunities to be had from things oversold.




I follow this strategy sometimes but confirmation that the stock has actually bottomed is essential.  Unless of course you feel you have a good fundamental understanding.

Bendigo Mining was a good case in point, a lot of people thought they picked it at $1.00,   I did with many others at 80cents, it then dived to 30cents.  I saw strenth at this point so doubled my holding and cashed out near enough for my money back at 51cents.  More luck than class.

And this was at $2.50 a few years back with what I can discern as 5 faulse bottoms along the way down.

My general rule of thumb, for a conservative approach, after a fall is that we need at least 6 months of consolidation then a rise of 10% on volume.

So if we apply that to the markets, we need to watch for awhile yet.

However I do often break my rules, at the moment I am doing with SBM what I did with BDG, could be a bit of a punt but think this was oversold for a number of sentiment reasons that will reverse.   We will wait and see.


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I will go with QOL.

A year ago they were over 40c briefly, now they are 12c.

In that time they have recieved approval, built and developed and commisioned Aus's first Moly mine for the last 15 years or so (Wolfram Camp). They just produced the first tonne of Moly and thier first shipment is planned for this month. 1yr offtake agreement for product with CITIC with option to extend after that time period.

Basically all they have done is progressed, yet all the SP has done is fall.

They recently completed a placement, menaing that they have enough cash for working capital and their other copper project, but it could mean some short term pressure on the price as the "sophisticated" investors take a small profit.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Hi Bushman, 

I hope it gets some decent analysis as there are definately some opportunites to be had with stocks oversold for whatever reason. The market being an emotional beast, fear will drives things well under fair value, wherever that is....

I think BMN was one of them and I pasted that up in the thread.

There were a few around the Opies Prime debacle too. 

Also, stocks definately fly under the radar and you can pick them up 'cheaply' on funnymentals. YT (LN) goes OK at this. 

Let's see how it goes.

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I might start a speadsheet to capture all these picks and see how we go. 

Interesting exercise.

Will start it now with poster, reco and price.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



CAB SAV said:


> Good one Kennas, I'll start with LLC, down from +$20 to $9.55. Down because of fear being classed in the fin service sector. Only 3 posts on this stock which is what I like. Most will miss the boat for a good long termer.
> Check the posts on this, wont take long.
> Seen half doz brokers recommendations, 2 hold 4 buy.



I've been watching this too along with WDC long long term. Not sure how the entire real estate market is going to go in the immediate future, so I'm scared to call a bottom on anything in housing/development right now. eeeek.


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

LOL im liking this, i just went through my watch lists and found a few more.

IPR: Ipernica
They are a firm that deals in solving IP problems/breach of IP. They gain a fee when they reach settlement of the breach. Basically like IP lawyers or at least something along those lines.
Last year was about 18c now 7.6c. Current MC of about 21mill cash at bank 32mill  No debt

PLT: Polartechnics
A biotech equivilant to a near term producer. They have a cervical cancer screening process, and contracts to sell into almost every Asian country, as well as others like Russia.
Last year 60c, now 12c, when again there seems to be no fundamental reason. They are beginning to deliver their machines and product which means income is beginning to flow. 2009 will be a year to watch for these guys imo.

EDE: Eden Energy
Have a multitude of projects.
Geothermal in S.A. Coal Seam Gas in the UK. They own a cyrogenics comapny in America which providesd some nice income. Their biggest project is Hythane. This is a hydrogen and deisel mix, aimed at green technology. India has come on-board and wants all of its public transport busses converted to this fueltype. First trial is up and running as i type. If they do fit out every bus in India the profits would be huge.
Last year 70c, now 28c.

Have a look at these again in 6 - 12 months time 

Man, this just made me realise how much i wish i had some more cash to invest 

disc - i do not hold any of the above, but wish i could at these prices.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> LOL im liking this, i just went through my watch lists and found a few more.
> 
> Man, this just made me realise how much i wish i had some more cash to invest
> 
> disc - i do not hold any of the above, but wish i could at these prices.



They are in, Name Spelt Wrong Way..


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> They are in, Name Spelt Wrong Way..




Thankyou, Name Pronounced Wrong Way.. :


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> Thankyou, Name Pronounced Wrong Way.. :



LOL, not if you pronounce it the right way. :


----------



## Speewha (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Hello Kennas

What a good idea not sure that my pick qualifies as an oversold unless you go way back to 2003. However feel VMT is undervalued, they a going through an issue of new shares at the moment, the directors are participating at not much discount to the current price of .105c. 

The funds raised will pay Bank debt, fund the Balance of the costs of the new factory in China; fund the takeover of a Spanish Motor Bike/Scooter company. They have recently enjoyed great scooter sales in Europe and recently sold 30,000 engines to Vietnam. 

Not bad for an Aussie Company breaking into a market which has been dominated by players long established.

No matter how much governments spend on public transport it will never give the when and where freedom of your own means of transport. With the rise in petrol prices globally I think especially with the younger set scooters are set to be a growth segment and VTM are nicely placed with operations in Europe and Asia. I think sales will increase in Australia of this type of product mainly in metro arears.  

So hope you will include VMT as an undervalued Stock in your spread sheet. As with all things time will tell. I own stock in this and have done so for some time. 

Regards


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Speewha said:


> Hello Kennas
> 
> What a good idea not sure that my pick qualifies as an oversold unless you go way back to 2003. However feel VMT is undervalued,
> 
> Regards



Speewah, could fit the idea of the thread as it's close to 2 year lows. 

This isn't really for just generally undervalued stocks wavering about but for those who have been punished dramatically for whatever reason. 

Having said that, VMT has gone from 22c to 10.5 in the year, so a 50% ish drop may qualify.

Gosh, might end up with the entire ASX in this thread soon.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

OK, the spreadsheet will look something like this, but I will also add a sell price on to it, for people trading dead cats, and the like. So, when you think you should sell the stock after a bounce, post it in the thread and it will be recorded.

This thread is in it's infantsy and may change direction to be more manageable, so work with me. Suggestions welcome. 

I see some value for people identifying massive sell offs, or turn around stories, that have some short term $ potential. 

Hope it helps..


----------



## Wysiwyg (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I spy a good knife that has dropped a long way.It would be interesting to know how many tried to catch this companies s.p. in big downhill run.Tharp says wait until the trend (up) is established .

I don`t recommend bottom picking (especially in public 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 ) BUT ( no pun intended 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 ) it can be a profitable trading opportunity.


----------



## Steve_QS (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

WOW - woolworths i believe qualifies for this thread, given that they have consistantly turned over increased profits for the past quarters, yet there share price has dropped considerably. by roughly $10 dollars $34 down to $24, althought there is some conjecture from the local producers getting squeezed. Yet it's still a great stock fundementally. Seems to be consolidating as we speak around the $24 dollar mark, which looks to be forming a base, not entirely sure still bit of a newbie?


----------



## nomore4s (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Maybe this thread should be merged with the Dog of the year thread:


----------



## Mofra (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Perhaps a shorter term retracement, but OXR would be worth a look due to:

Technically, it has found support above the previous support level/low in Jan 08 at just above $2.50. On pattern, it appears to have halted the 2 month downtrend & commenced a period of consolidation.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

One thing that might be missing here is time frame. 

So, it's going to be hard to manage unless we nominate things that are **** pick, or a knife catch, or maybe both .....

Not sure whether to separate the fundamental from the technical correction, or what?? 

Thread under construction and welcome for suggestions. 

I think I can manage both constructs with assistance from members to remind me of gains and losses, to be added into the Pickers and Catchers Matrix..

One thing that I think this may achieve is to have a section for punters to lay their best picks on the line, either FA or TA, and we see where they go.

However, it's for a bottom pick!!! Or, there abouts....

Also, the  most important thing is some analysis. 

Some justification for a bottom, or an oversold.

I'm going to record them all, and splash them up when I can, to try and make this wothwhile..

Everyone is under scrutiny so don't just splash up any old sold off dog...


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Ok 2 ways it could possibly be done:

1. Have a column and record members nominations if they are catching the knife or bottom picking. Then have a set time frame for each of these, say 3months for a knife catch and 6 months for a bottom pick.

2. Have members nominate their timeframe for their selection. 
Have 8 columns each with quarters for the next 2 years and then members choose what quarter they want the stock to be evaluated in, and just put a mark in that column


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> Ok 2 ways it could possibly be done:
> 
> 1. Have a column and record members nominations if they are catching the knife or bottom picking. Then have a set time frame for each of these, say 3months for a knife catch and 6 months for a bottom pick.
> 
> ...



Let me sober up before I can undersatnd that P..

Some time tomorrow.


----------



## bunyip (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Bottom pickers? Shouldn't that be bottom 'guessers'?
Let's be realistic.....nobody can consistently pick bottoms in advance - it's nothing but guesswork. The only way to reliably pick a bottom is after the event. 
"Not good enough", I hear you all say, "we want to know where the bottom is now so we can buy at or near the lows."
I say forget about trying to buy at the bottom. Pull up a chart of any strongly downtrending stock. Take note of the number of times it rallied briefly before once again heading south. These rallies were caused primarily by buying pressure from bottom pickers. Why were these rallies short-lived? Because there were many investors who bought the stock at higher prices over past weeks or months, and a rally gave them the opportunity of bailing out for perhaps a break even result, or at least for a smaller loss than they were facing before the rally took place. When enough of them bail out en masse, their selling pressure forces the stock lower, the downtrend resumes, and the latest bottom pickers cop a pounding.

Rather than guessing where a bottom might be, a far more effective way to play bottoms is to wait for conclusive evidence that a bottom has in fact occured. This means waiting for evidence that the downtrend is over and a new uptrend is underway. Then and only then can you say with any degree of confidence that the stock has bottomed out.
Once a new uptrend is confirmed you'll have loads of opportunities to get a piece of the action. You won't be buying at the bottom, but you'll still be buying at relatively cheap prices. And after you've bought, at least there's a pretty good chance of the stock going the right way to make you some money. Afterall, the stock is uptrending at this stage, and uptrends usually go further and last longer than most people thought they would.

Having said all of the above, let me assure you that I have nothing against you bottom pickers. In fact I'm eternally grateful to you and I hope you all keep doing it. The temporary rallies you help to create are just the right medicine to cheapen the price of Put options. When the rally stalls and the downtrend resumes, the alert options trader has an ideal opportunity to grab some Puts at discounted prices, and reap the benefit of their rapidly escalating value as the stock heads south with a vengeance.
This pattern can be exploited over and over again with Put options on the bearish stocks in the bearish sectors of the market.

Long live bottom pickers!


----------



## nioka (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



nomore4s said:


> Maybe this thread should be merged with the Dog of the year thread:




No. Dogs are ones that reach a bottom AND STAY THERE.


----------



## nioka (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> Bottom pickers? Shouldn't that be bottom 'guessers'?
> Let's be realistic.....nobody can consistently pick bottoms in advance - it's nothing but guesswork. The only way to reliably pick a bottom is after the event. !




A good fundamental analysis can give you a > 70% chance of picking when a stock should have bottomed. I guess you can call that an EDUCATED guess. After the event can often be very costly. Guessing or picking, doesn't matter for me, I like trading that way.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> Bottom pickers? Shouldn't that be bottom 'guessers'?
> Let's be realistic.....nobody can consistently pick bottoms in advance - it's nothing but guesswork. The only way to reliably pick a bottom is after the event.
> 
> Long live bottom pickers!



bunyip, that is the point of the analysis aspect.

We all have opinions of the market and where it is heading.

Some FA and some TA.

A bottom needs to be judged, which it will. Both in FA and in TA. There are quite a number of criteria to judge both. 

You're not up to it?


----------



## ormond (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I would like to add KBC-Keybridge capital ltd to the list.
n.t.a per share $1.54 against a current price of $0.70
Estimated net profit for the full yr of $20 mill. or e.p.s. of 11c
Keybridge is involved in structured financial products which include aircraft and shipping leases,infrastructure,property and natural resources.
Currently a fully franced yld of 9%


----------



## bunyip (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> bunyip, that is the point of the analysis aspect.
> 
> We all have opinions of the market and where it is heading.
> 
> ...




No Kennas, I'm definitely not up to picking bottoms. Been there, done that. I realised long ago that it's far simpler and more productive to simply find a trend, hitch a ride on it, and jump off after it's finished.


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> No Kennas, I'm definitely not up to picking bottoms. Been there, done that. I realised long ago that it's far simpler and more productive to simply find a trend, hitch a ride on it, and jump off after it's finished.




Once again it depends on your style and timeframe.

I know many fundy people who have made a motza picking low valued stocks.

If you have the patience and the conviction to stick to your analysis then you can catch huges moves, rather than catching a small part of a big move. By the time a trend is confirmed a big proportion of the gains can be gone.

Horses for courses. Each to their own etc etc


----------



## bunyip (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> Once again it depends on your style and timeframe.
> 
> I know many fundy people who have made a motza picking low valued stocks.
> 
> ...




Who says that a trend-riding approach only catches a small part of a big move? A well planned trend-following system, and the discipline to stick to it, can put you into a new trend early and allow you to harvest the bulk of the trend before you exit. I and other trend traders of my aquaintance have often made hundreds of percent profit from a single trade. It also enables you to avoid exposure to massive erosion of your portfolio value when a stock turns bearish.
Furthermore, it's business as usual for trend riders during bear markets......those who know what they're doing continue to make good money with shorts, or Put options.

As for the 'fundy people' who have 'made a motza' picking low valued stocks.......I don't doubt you, but on the other hand, there have been many poorly performing funds as well over the years, and they also were attempting the value approach.

Nick Radge, who is generally well-regarded on this forum, gave an interesting presentation to a Brisbane ATTA meeting, during which he put up numerous charts of downtrending stocks, and marked on the charts the levels where various brokers had recommended the stocks as 'good value at these levels'. 
Time after time the stocks fell much, much lower after the broker's buy recommendation.
The large broking firms employ professional analysts who look into every aspect of a company's business. Yet they still have an abysmal record of picking bottoms and/or value stocks. 
What chance do you think the average player like you or I have?

Yes, it's horses for courses, each to their own etc etc. I sincerely hope you fellers keep trying to pick bottoms. I really do. You do me a very valuable service and I appreciate it..


----------



## mayk (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

For a short term (may be for a single day!) my choice is  ANZ.  seems to be hit hard today. I think it is more sort of dead cat bounce opportunity than bottom for this stock. But the yield for this stock is really good 7.6% for fundies. Remember it is one of the big four.


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

And by jumping on board when you do, you push the price up and in turn do us a valuable service because we are already in. If everyone follow TA it would be a self fulfilling prophecy and no stock would ever break out

Im not talking about brokers here, im talking about individual fundamental investors. We all know brokers have motives other than SP which to consider when the reccomend something.


----------



## bunyip (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> And by jumping on board when you do, you push the price up and in turn do us a valuable service because we are already in. If everyone follow TA it would be a self fulfilling prophecy and no stock would ever break out
> 
> Im not talking about brokers here, im talking about individual fundamental investors. We all know brokers have motives other than SP which to consider when the reccomend something.




Yes, if the stock you attempted to bottom pick does in fact go up, then the buying pressure from the trend traders will indeed push it higher, to the benefit of you early birds. And we don't have any problem with that.....we're happy to help you out. You scratch our backs, we'll scratch your's.

However, you make one very broad assumption.....that the value stock you attempted to bottom pick will actually go up. Very often it goes further down, much further in fact. Every day on this and other forums you can read stories from investors who are bemoaning the fact that the stock they thought was a value buy at $10 is now down to $3.
During my years of involvement with ATAA I've spoken to hundreds of 'value investors' who were sitting on big losses because, in spite of their best fundamental analysis, their value stocks plunged downward. Not only was their money tied up in dogs, (some of which never recovered and actually ended up dying, e.g. PAS, SGW, HIH), but at the same time they were missing out on huge profits from growth stocks that they could have easily got into simply by hitching a ride on the trend and sticking with it as long as it continued.


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

And im sure there are a heap of trend traders who also make losses, for various reasons.

Point is, everyones different. Get used to it and stop trying to make yourself and your method look as though it is better than others


----------



## Snakey (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

This must be the smelly finger thread. I like it and I have no problem walking a round with smelly fingers(but my girlfriend hates it) But seriously I think this is where the money is ATM. Trade the situation that your in. Alot of bargains out there, no doubt about that. Change to the situation that your in, like a chameleon does and success will always be there.


----------



## Snakey (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Bottom picking and knife catching is very hard to do on fundamentals alone Trend analysis and trading patterns is the best way to do this dirty job


----------



## Wysiwyg (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Someone must pick the bottom and that is through shear ass if they do.In my opinion if one enters a downtrending stock on `under valued` and `cheap stock` reasons they are playing a low probability game.
Well that`s a mistake I made anyway.


----------



## Snakey (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Wysiwyg said:


> Someone must pick the bottom and that is through shear ass if they do.In my opinion if one enters a downtrending stock on `under valued` and `cheap stock` reasons they are playing a low probability game.
> Well that`s a mistake I made anyway.



If its down trending it doesnt have a bottom...so you cant pick it.
first wait to see the bottom then maybe even a slight recovery or change in trend and there you have it. You cant pick something you cant see. If you try to pick some thing you cant see ...you might pick someone else's bottom


----------



## bunyip (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> And im sure there are a heap of trend traders who also make losses, for various reasons.
> 
> Point is, everyones different. Get used to it and stop trying to make yourself and your method look as though it is better than others




Yes indeed, trend traders do have losing trades. But if they know what they're doing then they use stop losses and sensible money management to ensure that losing trades doesn't seriously damage their trading account. They live to fight another day after a losing trade. And they clean up big when they get aboard a trend that turns out to be powerful and long lasting.
Bottom pickers, however, don't always live to fight another day. I have three friends who were wiped out by buying 'value' stocks, then adopting the HAH (hold and hope) approach while their stocks plunged to oblivion. I know of many other people who suffered the same fate.


----------



## justjohn (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Kennas
Here is another plunger ,MAP was $4.60 oct 07 , now $2.03 .Just off its 52 week low of $2.00 div yield 13% being smashed because related to Mac bank and airports (fuel costs),seems to be another infrastructure stock going backwards


----------



## eddyeagle (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Great thread - interesting to read different people's opinions...

I agree that there are many stocks out there looking very very cheap but I also have a gut feeling that global markets are about to get smashed in the coming weeks / months. I dont think the pain is over yet... 

Personally I think i'd wait to see a bit of an uptrend before buying in otherwise it can get ugly trying to catch that knife!

But it comes down to your investment timeframe and trading style. 
Ie. ANZ at $17.50. A 5 year investor may do very well out of this. A one year investor not so well?

Also BMN doesnt really qualify does it because it has already bounced 75% off it's lows???


----------



## uahmad (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I might put my beginner 2 cents in.

To me TOLL Holdings (TOL) looks very cheap, its sitting around the $6 mark down from $14 from late last year.

Their fundementals from what i can see look great, obviously the oil price, market sentiment and VB is what keeping this stock down i think.
Surely the rise of oil prices will be passed onto the consumer sooner than later and once they offload VB this stock will rise fairly quickly.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> But if they know what they're doing then they use stop losses and sensible money management to ensure that losing trades doesn't seriously damage their trading account.



So traders picking a potential bottom can't do that either?

One thing that you have jumped the gun on here, is that there is no requirement to call a bottom before the fact. A better way is to wait for clear signals that the bottom may be in. In FA, that may be when a stock has gone well under NTA, or extremely cheap on IGV to MC, or Oz au to MC, or whatever. In TA, you can pick a potential bottom when a stock hits long term support, and bounces, breaks resistance, and then that resistance turns support.

BMN was mentioned earlier, and fit both FA and TA requirements for a potential bottom. 

On this chart you will see the stock hit very strong long term support at $1.50. After going under a dragon fly doji flew in and was followed up by a very strong white candle. The stock tested $1.50 in about 4 occasions and it held. It then started making higher lows and highs. 

4 May:



kennas said:


> Not necessarily bull trap, *looks like a nice higher low and high and that rejection of the low dragonfly in retrospect may be the bottom. *Yes, this has happend 3-4 times since the double top and capitulation with the markets and Opies etc, but with the change in general market financial sentiment, *I ´m plucking a bottom. *That ´ll come back to bite me.




I don't like doing it myself, always fraught with danger, but if you see one, and set stops etc, it can be very profitable.

I think we're going to see a few bottoms in the coming months (years? )

(BMN will crash now, lol)


----------



## So_Cynical (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Bottom picking...Jezzz where do i start.


TOL - Toll holdings Ltd
PPX - Paperlinx Ltd
FCL - Futuris corporation Ltd

There all big players in there industry's, in fact arguably market leaders...all 
at around 5 year lows or more...all have fallen more than 50% from there tops
so must be closer to bottom than top.

Hows that for TA ...5 year charts below.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

We need to be careful this doesn't turn into a ramping thread too, so keep the justifications flowing. 


I'm calling a _potential_ bottom on KMN, but wouldn't call a most likely one until some key resistance is taken out and another higher low is made. Breaking 30 and I will be more confident to do so. Doesn't mean it's going up though, just not down any more. Is also due to produce an upgraded JORC at one of it's projects soon and a Scoping Study on the other. MC to Oz au of under $10 an ounce, makes it about 1/3 below market fundamentally. 

But as you can see WOOF!!!! Would have to dump it back under 17c. 

Can't believe that H&S target was met!  

(holding both BMN and KMN)


----------



## Miner (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Great thread

Can I add in Kennan's spreadsheet 

ANZ 17.77 on 1 July
DIO .74  ON 1 jULY 

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> Bottom pickers, however, don't always live to fight another day. I have three friends who were wiped out by buying 'value' stocks, then adopting the HAH (hold and hope) approach while their stocks plunged to oblivion. I know of many other people who suffered the same fate.



And bunyip, you're assuming this is a hold and hope thread. It is not. You trade every stock on it's merits. I'm not sure why you've jumped to all these assumptions about trading oversold, undervalued stocks. 

I must say I agree in buying into trends in general. That's why I don't buy downtrending stocks unless there's a high probablility of a bottom being in. That means some FA disconnect, some technical signals, and higher lows and highs. Also, no need to pick and obsolute bottom, but picking close to the bottom and start of an upward trend can be very rewarding. Like with breakouts. The closer you pick the break, the better. That's the point of the 'potential breakout' thread too. There's no buying and hoping here. 

As for knife catching, I see this as picking things that have reacted extremely badly to some type of news and get way oversold on market fear. Plenty of examples of those recently. 

Commiserations to your friends.


----------



## Trop Beaucoup (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Hi all,

What about INL, been hammered by price of zinc and further share issue- has some decent tech though..?


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Trop Beaucoup said:


> Hi all,
> 
> What about INL, been hammered by price of zinc and further share issue- has some decent tech though..?



It's at all time lows, but that's not necessarily a reason for it to stop going down. Should be some support, but found a bottom? Is Zn going to continue to slide, or has it found a bottom? Would like to see a single higher low and high before calling anything. Probably need some more detail on why it should be a bottom. Will include your nomination in the spreadsheet, Trop.


----------



## enigmatic (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Hey kennas, new to the FA game and even newer to TA.
think this is a great idea for a thread. Will be a good one for myself to follow just to get a better background on the development of FA and TA analysis.

I have one which i have been watching for a while, which i did actually think i found the bottom. What the market has recently done has however confused the matter.

FA Reasoning
In early 2007 this stock was re-rated based on its Nolan project with the following resources.
*Rare earth:*
The mixed bag or Rare earth are all priced per Kilo and range from $3.75 to $710. However Arafura have used quiet low PFS Assumptions based  on the fast growth sector.
Chemical Catalysts 5%-10% growth per annum
Magnets 15% to 20%
Phosphorescence 15% 20%
There is also high demand for Renewable & Energy efficent products.
China is also becoming a Net Import of Rare earth.
*Phosphoric Acid:*
The Nolan project has a co-product of Phosphoric acid. which spot price has gone from 600 to 1800 per tonne in the last year. Arafura have used 400 in there PFS.
*Calcium Chloride*
This is a by-product of the Phosphoric Acid which priced at arround 250-350 a tonne. Nolan once again has used 100 in there PFS much lower then current Value.
*Uranium*
low quantity still provides 45mil possible revenue pa

Although i have a little more FA i think ill may move onto TA (little to no knowledge)

TA Reasoning:
I think this will be mixed with a bit of FA and a bit of Gibberish. hey we all cant be experts.
Forgive my chart below i have no software so its kinda basic.




As you can see on the Chart the red line is the 90day MVA and the Black the 240day MVA. you can also see the Blue and red lines of support. with the Recent recovery of the market you have seen the recovery of the share price 100%+ however this has pulled back majority of its previous gains to the support above long term. The main reason i believe this is the bottom is based on a the constant test of low support with amble buying. secondly my possible FA but not sure. 

The main reason for the drop in share price i believe is consolidation and sell down of the 13c Options exercised by June 30th. now these are likely removed from the market and likely more Long termers holding. price is likely to rise see previous rise. (Much Lower remaining Options left) 

Lastly from the 90day MVA you can see that it has steadied off as it Climbs back to the 240MVA i think it is looking like a much better buy on a TA point of view.

I'm sure I have got alot wrong here but I thought i give it a go. Kennas or anyone else some advice would be kindly appreciated.
Oh and can you put me down for ARU Kennas Bottom i think is 80c 6months and i think i have found bottom no falling Knife.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



enigmatic said:


> Hey kennas, new to the FA game and even newer to TA.
> 
> Oh and can you put me down for ARU Kennas Bottom i think is 80c 6months and i think i have found bottom no falling Knife.



Might be enigmatic. Worst case 70 ish perhaps. Breaking that and it's in a little trouble.


----------



## enigmatic (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Think ARU has more Fundmentals although that blue support line of yours looks pretty good. cheers on the help. start using that bigchart so my next one should be a little better. Cheers for the help


----------



## Gurgler (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

How much further - or is this the bottom. Been a steady decline since launch and no prior bottom - are we there now!


----------



## prawn_86 (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Hey Kennas,

One other thing that may be interesting to include on your spreadsheet is a "low" column. That way we could keep track of how much further each persons stock fell. IE - if they actually did get close to the bottom.

Even if you just updated the low column when people "sold" then it would give an interesting comparison imo


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> Hey Kennas,
> 
> One other thing that may be interesting to include on your spreadsheet is a "low" column. That way we could keep track of how much further each persons stock fell. IE - if they actually did get close to the bottom.
> 
> Even if you just updated the low column when people "sold" then it would give an interesting comparison imo



Aren't I covering that with the 'price' column, and 'current price' ?

Not exactly sure what you mean.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Gurgler said:


> How much further - or is this the bottom. Been a steady decline since launch and no prior bottom - are we there now!



Is that a 'bottom's in' Gurgler, or you going to wait a bit longer?


----------



## prawn_86 (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> Aren't I covering that with the 'price' column, and 'current price' ?
> 
> Not exactly sure what you mean.




Yeh, but current price changes every day. When the person "sells" i think we should take a look back at the chart and find the lowest point and then include that, so we can see how much lower it went (if any)


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> Yeh, but current price changes every day. When the person "sells" i think we should take a look back at the chart and find the lowest point and then include that, so we can see how much lower it went (if any)



Will add that in on the sell.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Golly, maybe we need a 'potential' bottom thread to capture all these things tumbling.

I've followed this one for some time and owned it off and on on the way up, and part way down, but look at it now!! 

The fundamentals are somewhere in its thread, but geez they've been punished.

Like Zn perhaps??

I'm not including this as a bottom yet, but just one to watch for a turn around. eeeeek.


----------



## Gurgler (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> Is that a 'bottom's in' Gurgler, or you going to wait a bit longer?




Probably more for your 'Potential's' list. Will advise asap.


----------



## Schmuckie (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I caught one bottom and one falling knife in recent months, and have profited immensely on both.

The first was BMN around the time of the brokerage problems.  This was sheer coincidence, as I was looking for a proxy for my husband's company (I could go to jail for insider trading if I bought and/or sold his shares).  I'm up about 50%.

Around the same time, I bought a Canadian gold exploration company called Aurelian Resources with a world-class find in Ecuador, outstanding management and plenty of cash for operations.  The Ecuadorian government declared a mining moratorium while it sorted out its mining laws.  The share price fell from close to $10 to $3.05 in three days.  We happened to have a geologist friend with classmates working in Ecuador, who told us what the underlying issues were.  Basically, 20-year-old concessions were still on the books and some of the companies didn't even exist anymore.  Others were granted as free friends-and-family concessions by the former government regime.  The situation had become so complicated in Ecuador that the only way to quiet the noise was to declare a moratorium.  

With this in mind, and while the price was still falling, I immediately placed an order for 500 shares at $3.80; 1,000 shares at $3.25; and 10,000 shares if it fell to $1.50.  The shares bottomed at $3.05 the same day I got my 1,500 shares.  The very next day, the situation stabilized when the Ecuadorian government announced it would be allowing "responsible" mining to go ahead but everything was on hold for up to 180 days while a new mining law was drafted.  The shares then shot back up into the $4.50 range.  I later learned that the Canada Pension Plan is the largest institutional shareholder of Aurelian and a great deal of Canadian diplomatic pressure was placed on the government of Ecuador.  The shares are now trading in the mid-$5.00 range.  Drafts of the new mining law are being circulated, and -- not surprisingly -- it's a clear, responsible law that actually supports mining while taking care of housekeeping and environmental matters.  And it was being drafted with Canadian and Chilean government assistance.

With 20/20 hindsight, what I've learned from this is that one can do very well catching falling knives ... if the reason it falls has nothing to do with fundamentals, but rather, unrelated circumstances.  

I would be very careful about picking a business that's hit bottom because of its own problems, unless management has been completely replaced with experienced turnaround specialists.


----------



## bunyip (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> So traders picking a potential bottom can't do that either?
> 
> One thing that you have jumped the gun on here, is that there is no requirement to call a bottom before the fact. A better way is to wait for clear signals that the bottom may be in. In FA, that may be when a stock has gone well under NTA, or extremely cheap on IGV to MC, or Oz au to MC, or whatever. In TA, you can pick a potential bottom when a stock hits long term support, and bounces, breaks resistance, and then that resistance turns support.
> 
> ...




So traders picking a potential bottom can't do that either?

_*Sure, potential bottom pickers can limit their risk with stop losses. But a potential bottom occurs while a stock is still downtrending, whereas a confirmed bottom can only be confirmed after the stock has started a new uptrend. 
If they buy the stock when it's made a 'potential' bottom, as opposed to a confirmed bottom, then they're buying a downtrending stock and they'll get stopped out frequently. 
Different story if they buy after a confirmed bottom.....the stock in now technically uptrending and their stop loss has far less chance of being hit.*_


One thing that you have jumped the gun on here, is that there is no requirement to call a bottom before the fact. 

_*Indeed there is not. Yet calling it before the fact is exactly what most bottom pickers and falling knife catchers attempt to do. And it frequently costs them dearly.*_

A better way is to wait for clear signals that the bottom may be in. In FA, that may be when a stock has gone well under NTA, or extremely cheap on IGV to MC, or Oz au to MC, or whatever. In TA, you can pick a potential bottom when a stock hits long term support, and bounces, breaks resistance, and then that resistance turns support.

_*When the stock completes the technical picture you've described above, it's clearly in an uptrend. The bottom in this case would be a confirmed bottom, not a potential bottom. You're waiting for a new uptrend that confirms the bottom is in. If you buy the stock once a new uptrend begins, you're a trend trader, not a bottom picker. You may look for fundamental factors to support the technical picture, but the fact remains that you're trading the trend, not bottom picking.*_

BMN was mentioned earlier, and fit both FA and TA requirements for a potential bottom. 
On this chart you will see the stock hit very strong long term support at $1.50. After going under a dragon fly doji flew in and was followed up by a very strong white candle. The stock tested $1.50 in about 4 occasions and it held. It then started making higher lows and highs. 

_*Again, you're using technical analysis to confirm the bottom. That's not bottom picking and it's not catching a falling knife. It's intelligent, commonsense analysis of the price action. You have an opinion of what the stock might do, and you have the sense and the patience to wait for the price action to confirm your view.
I commend you for this kind of analysis.....if everyone invested like this, there would be far less hard luck stories on this forum from people who have been badly mauled by blindly buying a 'value' stock that was falling, and fell a lot further after they bought it.*_


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Bunyip, thanks for the reply.

The aim of this thread is to find bottoms, WITH ANALYSIS.

Surely this means you need some justification for calling it. That in turn means that there is some FA and or TA supporting the 'bottom'. 

That covers all your counter arguments.

Let's move on and make the most of the chance for people to provide some ideas and some analysis to support their assertions. 

Cheers,
kennas

PS, got any bottoms for us?


----------



## bunyip (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> And bunyip, you're assuming this is a hold and hope thread. It is not. You trade every stock on it's merits. I'm not sure why you've jumped to all these assumptions about trading oversold, undervalued stocks.
> 
> I must say I agree in buying into trends in general. That's why I don't buy downtrending stocks unless there's a high probablility of a bottom being in. That means some FA disconnect, some technical signals, and higher lows and highs. Also, no need to pick and obsolute bottom, but picking close to the bottom and start of an upward trend can be very rewarding. Like with breakouts. The closer you pick the break, the better. That's the point of the 'potential breakout' thread too. There's no buying and hoping here.
> 
> ...




No Kennas, I'm not assuming that this is a buy and hold thread. I'm simply drawing on my knowledge of those who play the stockmarket. 
Of the hundreds of investors I've spoken to over the years, very few of them ever had any contingency plan if their stock went against them. Most of them simply adopted the HAH approach to their stock investments.
Surveys of brokers are conducted from time to time, and have revealed that less than 10% of market investors have any kind of risk management in place.
I very much doubt if many of the people who try to bottom pick by buying what they consider to be value stocks, are going to cut their losses quickly if the stock goes against them. Most of them are going to give the stock some time to conform to their expectations. 
In the meantime the stock goes against them in a big way, and now they're even more inclined to hold and hope because of their reluctance to accept what has now become a serious loss.
I doubt if you personally would do this.....I can see from your general comments that you're a more sophisticated investor/trader who knows somehting about technical analysis and risk control. However, I believe you're quite likely something of a rarity among market players. Very few of them operate as you do.
You appear to consider yourself, to some extent at least,  as a bottom picker. I suggest that you're nothing of the kind. The very fact that you agree with buying into uptrends in general, that you don't like buying downtrending stocks, that you like to see higher highs and higher lows, etc etc, tells me quite clearly that you're primarily a trend trader, with a bit of back up from fundamental research.
Sure, you may form opinions about a stock being oversold and perhaps having formed a bottom, but as far as I can see, you don't race in with a buy order at that stage.....you wait for the subsequent price action to confirm your views.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> Of the hundreds of investors I've spoken to over the years, very few of them ever had any contingency plan if their stock went against them. Most of them simply adopted the HAH approach to their stock investments.
> Surveys of brokers are conducted from time to time, and have revealed that less than 10% of market investors have any kind of risk management in place.



 You are running in circles now. That equally applies to any entry. Simply being a trend trader doesn't put you in the elite group that honour their stops. Its not the method that counts its the application.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> No Kennas, I'm not assuming that this is a buy and hold thread. I'm simply drawing on my knowledge of those who play the stockmarket.
> Of the hundreds of investors I've spoken to over the years, very few of them ever had any contingency plan if their stock went against them.



bunyip,

I did not read beyond this. 

Sorry. 

I have already said that any investment/trade needed contingency stops. 

Or plans. 

Or whatever.


----------



## bunyip (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> Bunyip, thanks for the reply.
> 
> The aim of this thread is to find bottoms, WITH ANALYSIS.
> 
> ...




Do I have any bottoms for you?
No, I'm afraid not. I'm from the school of thought that says 'Be a bull in a bull market and a bear in a bear market'. 
I have absolutely no interest in trying to be a bull in a bear market. Since we're currently in a bear market, my way of playing it is to buy Put options on downtrending stocks in downtrending sectors.
To implement this strategy I rely heavily on bottom pickers to buy downtending stocks. Their buying pressure creates rallies that usually fizzle out in a few days or a week, and often culminate in one of the candlestick top reversal patterns such as Bearish Engulfing patterns, Gravestone Dojis, and Shooting Stars. 
When one of these top reversal candlestick patterns shows up after a few days of rallying prices, it clearly suggests that the rally is finished and the downtrend is about to resume. This is an ideal time buy a Put option.
The point is that without bottom pickers, these temporary rallies would never occur, and neither would the reversal patterns that call the end of the rally and the resumption of the downtrend.
That's why I said with the utmost sincerity in one of my earlier posts that I appreciate bottom pickers.


----------



## spooly74 (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> I'm not sure if we're getting to the point of the market hitting a bottom, but it's time we longer term investors started looking at some potential value in the market, and where our cash could be directed. Bottom pickers.
> 
> Of course, you'd have to give a reason for the nomination, in whatever basic form. FA and/or TA, or whatever, on why something has gone pear shaped but which might be a good opportunity.
> 
> Any thoughts?




Though I`d include this mutt for consideration.
Clearly underperformed this fin year end compared to the underlying assets of the company and where the fundamentals stood 2/3 years ago.

Intec needs to tell the market that is has the ability to build the plant. 
Intec needs an announcement by CMR or Buffalo Gold (anyone will do) to use one of its processes.
If it can achieve the above goals the sp should appreciate accordingly.

My saga in this one is as follows ...bought at 20c, bought more at 16c ....sold the lot at 12.5c.
Bought again at 7.3c (day before recent rights issue )
Bought at 5c after the inevitable drop to rights issue sp.
I intend to sell it at 1c if it gets there and take my mates out on the turps or put me down in the spreadsheet for 2 years from now.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> Do I have any bottoms for you?
> No, I'm afraid not. I'm from the school of thought that says 'Be a bull in a bull market and a bear in a bear market'.
> I have absolutely no interest in trying to be a bull in a bear market. Since we're currently in a bear market, my way of playing it is to buy Put options on downtrending stocks in downtrending sectors.
> To implement this strategy I rely heavily on bottom pickers to buy downtending stocks. Their buying pressure creates rallies that usually fizzle out in a few days or a week, and often culminate in one of the candlestick top reversal patterns such as Bearish Engulfing patterns, Gravestone Dojis, and Shooting Stars.
> ...



Are we in a bear market?  Need to define that. 



> When one of these top reversal candlestick patterns shows up after a few days of rallying prices, it clearly suggests that the rally is finished and the downtrend is about to resume. This is an ideal time buy a Put option.



 So, any takers? Look forward to your signal when it appears. Looking forward to it. 



> The point is that without bottom pickers, these temporary rallies would never occur, and neither would the reversal patterns that call the end of the rally and the resumption of the downtrend.



And, the point of this thread is to take advantage of that for ASF members. 

Let's help each other take advantage of market fundamentals and psychology and not try to point score. 

After a couple years of this, it becomes tiring.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



spooly74 said:


> Though I`d include this mutt for consideration.



Golly, woof woof.

I have been a long time follower of this puppy. 

We need to talk about potential bottoms here in more anal detail.


----------



## Bushman (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



bunyip said:


> top reversal candlestick patterns




Maybe we should have a Top Reversal Candlestick Pattern thread? 

The point of this thread is to find fundamentally undervalued stocks that may have been sold down due to - 
1. their association with a sector that has been sold down hard ie A-REITs, financials; or
2. the bursting of a commodity price bubble ie uranium, zinc; or
3. insert any other reason why a stock may be oversold based on their fundamentals. 

If you get in nearer the bottom of an oversold stock with good fundamentals (including credit by the way), you will do well in the medium to long term as the market will not ignore these once the fear and panic subsides.  

Otherwise you could be a trend analyser, day trader, short seller etc who reviews technicals and makes buck by identifying top reversal candlestick patterns (whatever they might be) and you too will do well. 

But why not create a separate thread and talk about it there. You can call it the 'man with itchy bottom wakes up with smelly finger' thread.


----------



## subaru69 (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I'm not sure if this is a falling knife or one at the bottom. Either way I'm not willing to pick it yet.

RCY last trade at 31c and dropped by 2/3rds since listing.
Going ex-div tomorrow: 3c, ie annualised return of ~20% @ current SP.

For those that don't know, these guys are building the N-S bypass road in Brisbane.  They're 3 months ahead on schedule, are backed by the State Gov for cost over-runs and recently made preferred bidder for the new Airport Link.

I know infrastructure is unpopular but I can't work out why it's tanked.  I would slowly start buying in but I'm already too stretched on some blue chips I thought had made a bottom 2 weeks ago.  The way things are going it'll lose another 20%ex-div and I'll be glad I didn't buy any.

Sorry about my lack of analysis, this is my 1st post.


----------



## MichaelD (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Successful bottom pickers are like barrel riders going over Niagara Falls.

Of 1,000 riders, 100 survive
Of 100 who then go a second time, 10 survive
Of 10 who then go a third time, 1 survives and writes a book about how to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel.

The point relevant to this thread;

1. The odds are against you.
2. You are influenced unduly by survivor bias. Those that beat the odds are the ones that crow about it. The ones that were destroyed by bottom picking just stop posting.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



MichaelD said:


> Successful bottom pickers are like barrel riders going over Niagara Falls.
> 1. The odds are against you.
> 2. You are influenced unduly by survivor bias.




I'm not that fussed which way people choose to lose their money.

BUT out of all the entries it does give you the tightest of stops *if *using the out on a new low tick. With index trading its my favourite play as well as jumping in front of a running train. Play them day in day out and my barrel is still floating. 

But as always it aint the method its how you manage that method, I Think?


----------



## MichaelD (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Trembling Hand said:


> But as always it aint the method its how you manage that method, I Think?




You said it.

You'd be the only bottom picker on this thread that uses it correctly as a low risk entry. All the rest use it to be right in their analysis.


----------



## Ferret (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

Michael,

It surprises me you are so much against bottom picking.  

I've read many posts by you where you point out that successful trading doesn't involve having a high percentage of winners, it is about limiting losses from the losers and making strong profits from the winners.  I agree with this.

Surely this method can be carried over to bottom picking, where the scope for having strong winners is great.

Ferret


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



MichaelD said:


> You said it.
> 
> You'd be the only bottom picker on this thread that uses it correctly as a low risk entry. All the rest use it to be right in their analysis.



Obviously one that didn't survive the falls.

We've already discussed some of the priciples of finding a bottom, that involve both FA and TA. And the management of the position. 

Move on.


----------



## MichaelD (2 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Ferret said:


> It surprises me you are so much against bottom picking.
> 
> I've read many posts by you where you point out that successful trading doesn't involve having a high percentage of winners, it is about limiting losses from the losers and making strong profits from the winners.  I agree with this.
> 
> Surely this method can be carried over to bottom picking, where the scope for having strong winners is great.




The odds of something in a downtrend reversing its downtrend are lower than random. The odds of something in an uptrend continuing in an uptrend are higher than random. Why make it even harder than necessary to take a profit from the markets?

You can survive bottom picking if you couple it with tight risk control - i.e. pick what you think is the bottom but quickly admit you are wrong when it isn't the bottom. This can indeed be a great low risk entry. The problem occurs when you refuse to quickly admit you're wrong and get out.

Kennas - I for one don't see that this has been covered adequately in this thread. All I see are posts from people who want to bottom pick to prove how right and clever they are about picking bottoms - fatal to trading capital if you don't couple it with a robust stop loss. Those that are warning about the perils of this approach are being torn down.

My version of "bottom picking" is two pronged;
1. I have a short term system which goes long if the Dow falls a certain amount. This has made good money for me lately.
2. Even in this bear market there have been uptrenders - I've bought when my system told me to buy during the first big leg down and ended up in oil, coal and iron ore. Some of these have been stopped out for nice profits and others continue to uptrend - all in all, I've been better off participating in the market than stepping aside. My system is now signalling buys again, so I'm buying. Some would call this bottom picking. I'm just following my system.

The difference between what I do and what others are espousing on this thread are subtle and yet powerful;
1. I have backtested, validated systems at work here.
2. I take my stops without question.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



MichaelD said:


> Kennas - I for one don't see that this has been covered adequately in this thread. All I see are posts from people who want to bottom pick to prove how right and clever they are about picking bottoms - fatal to trading capital if you don't couple it with a robust stop loss. Those that are warning about the perils of this approach are being torn down.
> 
> My version of "bottom picking" is two pronged;
> 1. I have a short term system which goes long if the Dow falls a certain amount. This has made good money for me lately.
> ...



Michael, you are right, it isn't covered in enough detail, but we are not all professional mechanical traders like you. I am attempting to get some analysis out of members to justify their calls and to also discuss some of the principles of when a stock is oversold fundamentally, or has found a bottom technically. This has been mentioned in the thread and we will work on the detail as we go. Please don't have TA blinkers on when looking at this thread, there are many people who are fundamental investors who actually make money here also. They might have trade management plans just as you do and if not, then this thread may be another source of information or lesson to be incorporated into their investment plan. Some people who aren't as experienced as you may find some value out of the discussion. 

So, got any bottoms for us?


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

I'll try and and update this every couple of days.

If any of the detail is incorrect let me know.

And, if anyone sells, let me know.

Interesting exercise.


----------



## MichaelD (3 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> Please don't have TA blinkers on when looking at this thread, there are many people who are fundamental investors who actually make money here also.




I don't have TA blinkers on (and am surprised that you think that). Successful trading has virtually nothing to do with analysis, be that fundamental or technical.

I can spout on about technical bottom reversal signals (kangaroo tails et al) but none of them have any predictive value. They work when they work and they don't work when they don't work.

Others can spout on about the FA justification for a stock being undervalued. It also has nothing to do with successful trading.

You can make a profitable trading system out of almost any methodology, but all profitable systems have one characteristic in common; they let their winners run to more than cover the cost of their losers. For the vast bulk of profitable market participants, this happens by accident rather than by design.

Unfortunately, bottom pickers tend to do the opposite - let the losers continue to run instead of quickly admitting they were wrong and moving on to the next trade. The market proves their initial analysis wrong, and yet they refuse to admit this.

We've already seen bottom picking demonstrated in real time during a bull market to be an abject disaster and a destroyer of capital by Ducati. Did no one learn from this? Why do you think this version of the same exercise will be any different? Or is the truth that everyone thinks they are cleverer than the market?

Note: The Tech/Trader and Ducati exercises are extremely potent learning tools. Consider the basic differences between the approaches;
1. Buying in an uptrend, holding onto winners and cutting losers short, versus
2. Buying into a downtrend looking for a bottom, liquidating winners quickly and holding on to losers.
It wasn't the analysis that made the difference between the results.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

Michael, people are allowed to sell their stocks when they want. The use of a stop has been discussed. This isn't a buy and hope activity. If people do, it's a lesson to be learnt. 

FA has nothing to do with successful trading? OK. You didn't survive the falls did you. 

Actually, you contradicted yourself in the next sentance. I'm confused. 

So, in summary, your contribution to the thread is to say you need a stop loss. Cheers.


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 July 2008)

kennas said:


> I'll try and and update this every couple of days.
> 
> If any of the detail is incorrect let me know.




Yep Kennas, CIY closed on the 30/06 at 31c and opened at 36.5c on the 01/07.You have it at 30.5c.
Thanks, this could be an exercise of `i knew it and didn`t take them`. 
Good ego massage anyway.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yep Kennas, CIY closed on the 30/06 at 31c and opened at 36.5c on the 01/07.You have it at 30.5c.
> Thanks, this could be an exercise of `i knew it and didn`t take them`.
> Good ego massage anyway.



So, your buy price is .365?


----------



## MRC & Co (3 July 2008)

Good thread Kennas.

I gave up knife catching a while back, once I thought the global macro environment looked FUKCED (pardon the French, I was stuck for lack of a better word) and any profit forecast was about as unreliable as a political 'promise'.  Too much risk for me to donate too larger % of my portfolio to investments per se.

That being said, the 2 I bought on the way down, CCP, but that doesn't really relate to this thread as it has already bounced.

The other one I like is EQN, right on long-term support, copper price remains robust, nearing production and add to that uranium looking like it is a sector about to heat up once more and some massive uranium stocks in the ground, I think it could well and truly shoot up from here.

Projected EPS in relation to current equity would see a MASSIVE ROE, with risk not being enough to cause a large enough discount for me to put this near fair value.  I have a price target of $8 within 2-3 years.  

Add me to that list of knife catchers you have and put my neck out there!


----------



## MichaelD (3 July 2008)

kennas said:


> Michael, people are allowed to sell their stocks when they want.



The problem is, they'll want to sell when they are showing a slight profit and they won't want to sell when they are showing a slight loss. The slight losses will then turn into large losses.



kennas said:


> FA has nothing to do with successful trading? OK. You didn't survive the falls did you.



For Long Term Trend Following:

First fall:
Market peaked - open equity peaked - stop losses hit on the way down - good profits taken - cash taken out of system - exactly as preplanned.

First bottom:
Soon thereafter, my system began giving buy signals. I struggled psychologically, but took all the signals. I ended up with large positions in coal, oil, iron ore and fertilizers. Not from cleverness, but from following my system.

Second top:
Fully invested in market - long.

Now:
Lots of small losses as stops hit and one large profit taken from coal (MCC) which covered almost all of the losses incurred. Still 5 fully pyramided multi-R profitable trades in the portfolio (CEY, FMG, IPL, SGM, OSH) , 2 of which are hovering close to their stop losses. These are what trend following systems aim to capture and where all the money comes from.

Nett Result From the Peak:
Currently getting close to the peak's equity level again.


For My Short Term System:
7 day trades on the way down. Up 2.5%. Not much, but system is in trial mode, so small position sizes still.


A whole *world* less pain than most. No clever TA or FA. Just following the plans. Hence, no bottom drawer stocks for me - just playing the capital preservation game successfully, and learning more about the markets in the last 12 months than I have in the 3 years prior.



kennas said:


> Actually, you contradicted yourself in the next sentance. I'm confused.




Lets try expressing what I meant to say in another way;

<FA> + <Letting Winners Run and Cutting Losses Short> = <Success>
<TA> + <Letting Winners Run and Cutting Losses Short> = <Success>
<FA> + <Cutting Winners Short and Letting Winners Run> = <Blow-Up>
<TA> + <Cutting Winner Short and Letting Winners Run> = <Blow-Up>

What's the common factor?



kennas said:


> So, in summary, your contribution to the thread is to say you need a stop loss.



Using a Stop Loss is but one way of achieving the core goal of profitable trading, that of letting winners run sufficiently to cover your losses.

It is unfortunate that the term "Stop Loss" pretty much in your mind puts me in the TA camp. I am not even though I use TA in my trading.

Bottom picking with TA presumes that TA patterns are predictive of price reversal. They are not.

Bottom picking with FA presumes that fundamental valuations are predictive of a price reversal. They are not.

I will offer up one argument for your consideration;
1. Let us choose to accept for a moment that it is possible to formulate the correct valuation for a given company.
2. Let us also accept that it is possible to use this valuation to determine if a company is underpriced.
3. If we accept these two predicates, it is also reasonable to accept that those that are the best at formulating this valuation should therefore be the best at using this valuation profitably.

So why then does the average professional market fund UNDERPERFORM the index? Why then do the outperformers in one time period become the underperformers in another?

And if the professional funds UNDERPERFORM, why should an individual person with less access to information be able to perform any better?

The logical answer is that FA is not predictive of price action.


Hopefully I have now outraged both the TAs and the FAs in this thread. Good.


So then, the real quiestion becomes: how does one construct a profitable bottom picking trading system if TA and FA are no good at this task?


----------



## MRC & Co (3 July 2008)

Though, one could always point to Berkshire Hathaway!

On a side note, I find that accumulation near a major support level when I have a company severely undervalued can be a very good way of picking a bottom and I have made some decent money doing this.

Accumulation can either take the form of high volume, narrow spreads within a consolidation, or high volume and a hammer.  Both, taking place right near long-term support.  

That being said, these have themselves, only been medium-term trades and the frequency is very low, not very often I see them, perhaps only one every few months.  

Other than that, trade management (everything from initial stop, trailing stop, position sizing and pyramiding) and trading with the larger trend (at least breaking to a new 3 month high), are the same conclusions I have come to in order to make money in this environment.  Doing pretty well ATM (touch wood, now the market will rape me ).

Cheers


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 July 2008)

kennas said:


> So, your buy price is .365?




Since i posted on the 1/07 i suppose i have to take that day price (or the day low of 34c) Thanks.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> Since i posted on the 1/07 i suppose i have to take that day price (or the day low of 34c) Thanks.



.34 it is.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> EQN
> 
> Add me to that list of knife catchers you have and put my neck out there!



Done. 



MRC & Co said:


> Doing pretty well ATM (touch wood, now the market will rape me ).



 LOL.

Has a tendancy to do that when we are going along ok. Touching wood for you.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> So then, the real quiestion becomes: how does one construct a profitable bottom picking trading system if TA and FA are no good at this task?



Um, no it's not. You haven't actually provided any real proof that FA and/or TA can not assist in seeing a bottom, potential bottom, or near bottom.  

And if FA and TA is useless, perhaps we should just consult Yogi.


----------



## dubiousinfo (3 July 2008)

Kennas

If its not too late to join, you can put me down for TPI


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

dubiousinfo said:


> Kennas
> 
> If its not too late to join, you can put me down for TPI



No drama, this is an ongoing thing, the real bottom might not be found for months...... If at all....

Sell it at any time, or add any others you like on the way. 

TPI's had a shocker hasn't it. Looks like support around $5.50-6 ish.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 July 2008)

**Off topic**

Why is it that certain members of the TA community always come out on threads like this and try to preach why their choice of analysis/method is so much better than everyone elses?

Can they not see that the market needs all different types of players in order for it to work how it does? If everyone follwed thier 'godly' method then it would be a self fullfilling prophecy.

There are plenty of TA threads out there, and you do not see FA people going on there and preaching FA. I find it that TA people must have that certain mindset where they believe there is only one way things can be achieved (ie stubborness/arrogance).

**end rant**


Please note to any TA people that read this, i am making some big generalisations. I am also not going to respond to this post in this thread. *Read the first post for what this thread is about*. If you wish to respond start another thread or else keep to the threads which are appropriate to you and dont preach to others!


----------



## MichaelD (3 July 2008)

I'll stop beating my head against a brick wall now. Human nature will never change.

Good luck to you all.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> I'll stop beating my head against a brick wall now. Human nature will never change.
> 
> Good luck to you all.



LOL Michael.  

I really love a contrary view, but you just haven't convinced me.

Perhaps I'm beating my head up against a brick wall..


----------



## MichaelD (3 July 2008)

OK, one last point.

I'll stick my neck out and predict the outcome of this experiment.

50% of the stocks picked will continue to fall
50% will rise

Unfortunately, the 50% that rise will be sold off fairly quickly and the 50% that fall will be bottom drawered turning the exercise into a net negative one.

Stockpicking skill will be claimed for the 50% that rise.
Unforeseeable external factors will be blamed for the 50% that fall (short sellers, hedge funds, corrupt directors, insert scapegoat de jour here).


----------



## nioka (3 July 2008)

I find trying to pick bottoms, or tops for that matter, is a futile exercise. My philosophy is to disregard both to some extent. I work by assessing value at any given time. If the value is there for me then I buy if it is not then I don't buy and if I hold I sell. A lot of the time it involves catching a falling knife. 

It worked well with ABJ recently with a buy before the recent jump in price followed by a sell of half to recoup my outlay and a hold as a long term, free carried investment of the other half. I bought at the bottom and sold at the top. However my efforts with that method for CNP is not working out so far. At this stage I am down about 30%. I do not know where the bottom is but I have put a value on the stock and will continue to hold until I get that value or I revalue it down below it's selling price.

I trade on my perception of value. I like it when I do pick a bottom though.

I have bought EDE in the last few days at 27c and 27.5c as I suggest they are terrific value and must be at or at least near a bottom so I will nominate it as my choice today.


----------



## nioka (3 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> OK, one last point.
> 
> I'll stick my neck out and predict the outcome of this experiment.
> 
> ...




 Averaging is only for staticisions. Means bu*#**# all to me.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 July 2008)

nioka said:


> I have bought EDE in the last few days at 27c and 27.5c as I suggest they are terrific value and must be at or at least near a bottom so I will nominate it as my choice today.




Good choice 

I bought some of these for my old man when they were a lot higher. I intend them to hold them for my kids when he pegs it and i inherit them


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> OK, one last point.
> 
> I'll stick my neck out and predict the outcome of this experiment.
> 
> ...



Michael, I agree that this could occur.

But, the point of the thread is multifold.

1. For members to be made aware of stocks that have been significantly sold off and represent good value for long term fundamental investors.

2. For people to be made aware of short term trading opportunities for stocks that have been oversold due to market psychology.

3. For members to practice and learn some FA and TA skills in identifying stocks that represent good buying opportunities.

We are moving up to a stage where real value will be exposed in the Australian market. Whether that's a few days or a few months is unknown, but it WILL be an opportunity for people who have kept some cash aside to make the most of it in the long term. I have held off for some time in creating this thread becasue I thought sub 5000 would be where value emerges. It's emerging for the long term investor IMO. But how much longer is Yogi's guess....

Also, your random % classifications above are just that. Random. Like your objection and lack of insight into the value of this thread.


----------



## julius (3 July 2008)

Michael,

With all due respect, all I keep hearing is "I can't do it, therefore no one can"...

Of course, we can't all be 'better than average', but if we choose subscribe to market inefficiency, isn't it reasonable to assume there might be some particularly talented individuals who can preempt the aggregate biases of lesser investors...smart money?


----------



## Bushman (3 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> OK, one last point.
> 
> I'll stick my neck out and predict the outcome of this experiment.
> 
> ...





In terms of my pick, you will be earning an income yield of 12-13% p.a. So yes there might be capital destruction over the next 3 months (I'll say maximum 10% for LEP given it is seen as an A-REIT) as the world comes to terms with oil and inflation. But property is a hedge against inflation and at some stage listed LPTs that have strong direct property exposure (like LEP) will return to a share price that refects long-term yields of 8-9 %.  It has to happen and the total return for FY09 (ie income yield plus capital growth) should do well for LEP (say 30%). That is good given the level of risk of this share (lower beta - booze, long term leases WOW, income escalating at CPI).  

TA seems to completely ignore income. Rather is seems to only be a measure of sentiment (as measured by volume and price action) in the short to medium term. 

So you could use TA to 'pick' your bottom, stop losses to protect your down side risk and FA to pick the down trending stocks to measure.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

Bushman said:


> In terms of my pick, you will be earning an income yield of 12-13% p.a. So yes there might be capital destruction over the next 3 months (I'll say maximum 10% for LEP given it is seen as an A-REIT) as the world comes to terms with oil and inflation. But property is a hedge against inflation and at some stage listed LPTs that have strong direct property exposure (like LEP) will return to a share price that refects long-term yields of 8-9 %.  It has to happen and the total return for FY09 (ie income yield plus capital growth) should do well for LEP (say 30%). That is good given the level of risk of this share (lower beta - booze, long term leases WOW, income escalating at CPI).
> 
> TA seems to completely ignore income. Rather is seems to only be a measure of sentiment (as measured by volume and price action) in the short to medium term.
> 
> So you could use TA to 'pick' your bottom, stop losses to protect your down side risk and FA to pick the down trending stocks to measure.



How do I include yield in to the Matrix Bushman? Nice point  by the way for longer term fundies. 

I'll start adding it in, and perhaps if this has legs, start adding individends to the value of the stock. sp's don't capture the whole value of course. Well, only to TA only traders.....


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

No one panick selling their bottoms?

I'm holding KMN until 17 is broken.


----------



## nioka (3 July 2008)

kennas said:


> How do I include yield in to the Matrix Bushman? Nice point  by the way for longer term fundies.
> 
> I'll start adding it in, and perhaps if this has legs, start adding individends to the value of the stock. sp's don't capture the whole value of course. Well, only to TA only traders.....




Can I suggest that the dividend potential is always priced into a stock, sometimes not fully and sometimes overpriced in but there just the same.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

nioka said:


> Can I suggest that the dividend potential is always priced into a stock, sometimes not fully and sometimes overpriced in but there just the same.



Yep, possibly, and since this a shorter term exercise, probably has little value. 

Nice sun set today!


----------



## Gurgler (3 July 2008)

Okay I'm in for MCW Macquarie Countrywide Trust as bottoming out at 0.84 a few days back (I actually bought in at 0.895, not sure which you want to enter).

Reasons:
1. It got dusted in the wake of Centro/ANZ/Opes fallout etc. and could be ready for recovery.
2. It has 'quality' tenants like Coles, Woolies, Walmart, etc. at 97+% occupancy.
3. Yesterday it announced a restructure of its key debt facility;
4. and lastly, it has now just dipped, ex-dividend.


BTW can see the hills on all sides today - this is a once a year event.


----------



## rub92me (3 July 2008)

I'll nominate ADY as a bottom pick. More than 20% of shares were caught up in Opes Prime which exacerbated the sell-off in April/May. Combined with overall market fear of the ability to finance their debts ADY has been in the doldrums. Massive iron ore and Lithium resources and started production on both. We may not see huge appreciation of price in the next 6 months, but if this is below today's price 12 months from now I'll eat my hat.


----------



## Bushman (3 July 2008)

Here is a spreadsheet that tracks the theoretical total return for LEP assuming the shares are oversold by 20%. 

I have adjusted the initial unit price to make it ex-dividend.  

Harder to track in the short-term. 

View attachment LEP Total Return FY09.xls


----------



## MichaelD (3 July 2008)

kennas said:


> You haven't actually provided any real proof that FA and/or TA can not assist in seeing a bottom, potential bottom, or near bottom.




I'll tell you what could make this really interesting and valuable as an exercise (but it depends on how long you are prepared to keep tally) - I would be prepared to post my REAL long term trend following trades including position size for you to track in parallel with all the bottom picks. The only thing I won't disclose is the % leverage I use as that would disclose my total trading capital.

It is "conventional wisdom" that FA is supposed to outperform in current market conditions. I believe it won't and solid risk and money management will still outperform.

Want to create a comparison that will have significant long term value?

IMPORTANT: This is NOT an ego massaging exercise. I would be happy to be proved wrong.


----------



## enigmatic (3 July 2008)

MichaelD i can see were you are coming from when you say it is much more likely that people will sell there stocks for a quick profit but not for a loss.
I'm new and have made the later many times. However i havent made the first to many time aswell. were my share has been re rated and becomes overvalued and i haven't exited. it then has dropped 40% in a few weeks and i loss most of my profit. 

I believe this thread will catch a few new people thinking they will find many bottoms and put there cash into them and never sell out however that is a valuable lesson to learn and if you dont learn from it then you shouldnt be buying/trading or investing in shares.

if you are trying to pick a bottom is no different to how you decide to buy your shares. I to can put a stop loss and keep the shares i think will be undervalued for the future. however at what point does a stock become hold and sell. hey it could still be going up 15% a year. does this still make it valid for me to keep. that is up to the trader. 

This threads main focus should be to enable a group of people who are looking for undervalued stocks to share there analysis on there bottom picks in a single thread rather then having to venture to all the different threads to get the insight on how one can analyse a stock. 

It is still up to the individual to buy, wheather it is based on FA, TA a mixer or some random decision on the wind direction of the day.

Just my two cents


----------



## enigmatic (3 July 2008)

Hey MichaelD, Reading alot of your stuff since my last post. liked alot what I'm reading, and will be trying to implement some of it into my own system. Just a question and humor me as I'm new, is there a reason why you can't mix. Entry, timeframe, Risk money management and anything else you have discussed in one of your threads with Fundamental analysis. 

My idea of a bottom is when a share has reached a support and has tested this support to find it has found resistance and bounced back. the share has done this a few time. At which stage i would call this a strong support and most likely the price it reaches each time a strong resistance. If i believe this company has strong fundamentals. I will likely consider buying.

Is it not also wise for me to set an entry point, and the time frame in which I am looking at holding. Once i have done these two isnt it wise to set up some sort of risk management so that i can not lose to much money from my current point however have the possiblity for extensive gains. Depending on my time period.

I personally although do not currently use the system as its in development and i prefer to make a few mistakes on the way.

Is it not wise to have a stop loss so you minimise your loss at the same time should this stop loss be a moving stop lose depending on the previous share price. no point having a 15% stop loss on a stock to see it rise 100% then fall back to your buy -15% . 

Still a firm believer that this thread has useful points both in the analytical and the lessons learnt..
The first thing i learnt when starting, can't even remember were but i'll try and put it to words..

"High intelligent people tend to pick great stocks there reasoning is un questionable, yet the share price drops. the fundamentals havent changed and there decision was right its an amazing stock, yet the share price drops. 
Even though they were right the share price continues to drop and so does there investment.

The thing is they were right the share was incredible it had the making of the best thing since slice bread. But the public thought otherwise."

This i believe applies to everyone.
The main 2 things I have taken out of that:
1) You should always know the risk you are willing to take. "stop loss"
2) Even if a stock is the best thing since slice bread it may still not be a winner.

Thanks for reading and all your posts.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 July 2008)

I had a thought today

If stop loss orders are all important...then why isn't the superannuation industry using them?

I mean if there so vital to maximizing returns etc.

After all if they did use stops the funds wouldn't of lost so much value.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 July 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> I had a thought today
> 
> If stop loss orders are all important...then why isn't the superannuation industry using them?
> 
> I mean if there so vital to maximizing returns etc.




LOL.

If you are happy to match a large super fund I think then thats enough said


----------



## MichaelD (3 July 2008)

enigmatic said:


> Is there a reason why you can't mix. Entry, timeframe, Risk money management and anything else you have discussed in one of your threads with Fundamental analysis.




You can mix whatever you like into your entry, but I believe it makes virtually no difference to outcome.



enigmatic said:


> Is it not wise to have a stop loss so you minimise your loss at the same time should this stop loss be a moving stop lose depending on the previous share price. no point having a 15% stop loss on a stock to see it rise 100% then fall back to your buy -15% .




Yes, I believe it is wise to have a trailing stop - there are quite a lot of threads on precisely that topic.


----------



## Sean K (4 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> I'll tell you what could make this really interesting and valuable as an exercise (but it depends on how long you are prepared to keep tally) - I would be prepared to post my REAL long term trend following trades including position size for you to track in parallel with all the bottom picks. The only thing I won't disclose is the % leverage I use as that would disclose my total trading capital.
> 
> It is "conventional wisdom" that FA is supposed to outperform in current market conditions. I believe it won't and solid risk and money management will still outperform.
> 
> ...



Michael, you can do that if you like, and you can follow my blog if you like to see if I beat you. 

I'm not sure how or why you think 'conventional wisdom' about FA has anything to do with this thread, or you, or me, or anything....

Anyway, do whatever..


----------



## Sean K (4 July 2008)

Is anyone thinking this a good opportunity to call another bottom in something, or still going much lower?


----------



## Sean K (7 July 2008)

Update in the dirty fingers race.


----------



## explod (7 July 2008)

kennas said:


> Update in the dirty fingers race.




Now that's a good layout Kennas.  

Some disquiet among many of the pundits over the weekend, so could be an interesting week, keep near to the seat belt perhaps.

Anyway, off to the casino today, 7 of the 7th, the family number


----------



## Sean K (7 July 2008)

Seat belt on. 

Sorry, I left out Gurglar's and Rubs picks. They will be in the next update.


----------



## tech/a (7 July 2008)

FLX I like this morning.


----------



## Sean K (7 July 2008)

I have another potential bottom. Not calling a bottom yet, but it's on the watch potential bottom list. 

Fundamentally looks very undervalued on assets and potential assets (see thread), so any further move down just makes it too cheap. Unless they have some bad drilling results at Metrocoal and the Cape Alumina float flops.

 'float flops' in the one sentance...lol

Chart wise long term support at .45 ish and a big descending wedge triangle looking thing. There's a capper lurking at 60 which held it back last time. I always think the title capper is only used by rampers, but there was a couple of rediclously large orders sitting in the sell depth that were just BS, IMO. (Or, I'm a ramper ) 

I'll call a bottom at .45 when it breaks 60. If it breaks 60.


----------



## AnDy62 (7 July 2008)

Great thread, love it 

Can I throw Macquarie Leisure Trust, MLE into the ring. Currently $1.515, after hitting highs of $3.89. Nothing has realing changed for this company which has Dreamworld as its main investment as well as bowling centres, marinas and I think moving into gyms. Sold down on its name sharing with Macquarie and worries about the economy/fuel costs dampening Dreamworld activity etc. Overdone? IMO yes.


----------



## JTLP (7 July 2008)

CGF looks to have bottomed out (provided financials don't go kaput one more time )

Sold off a part of the business to AXA (possibly to reduce debt), staying within a $2 range (give or take), seems to be holding its own now. Nice dividend yield (6.1%) as well.

If i could post a chart my point would be highlighted nicely  but my computer isn't letting me!


----------



## subaru69 (7 July 2008)

Hi Kennas,

I can't remember if we were including dividends in the bottom picks?
If so there was a ~10% (3c) div for RCY on 3/7/8. (it would make it look a bit better)

Either way good thread.

Good to see you back with the 'infamous' thread too.  I've been quietly watching it and noticed your recent talk of nature/nurture (a bit oversimplified, as gene expression is actually influenced by the environment and you could argue the reciprocal also):boy::boy:


----------



## Sean K (7 July 2008)

subaru69 said:


> Hi Kennas,
> 
> I can't remember if we were including dividends in the bottom picks?
> If so there was a ~10% (3c) div for RCY on 3/7/8. (it would make it look a bit better)
> ...



I'll try and put the dividends in somehow, but will rely on posters to advise me.

Yes, agree with the complexity and cross over. I thought I wrote that somewhere also. 

It's a very complex crossover issue...


----------



## So_Cynical (7 July 2008)

I brought MRE - MINARA RESOURCES LTD, today so im calling Bottom @ 2.51

Company Summary

52-wk High: 7.77
52-wk Low: 2.51
Market Cap: 1,171,785,736
Issued Shares: 466,846,907
World top 10 Nickel producer
40+ years mine life at 60% owned Murrin Murrin Operation
No Debt
150+ million Cash
Totally unhedged
2007 profit 272 million
Last dividend 100% franked, 25 cents

http://www.minara.com.au/files/docs/107_Presentation_to_Investors_-_29_February_2008b.pdf

And if its not bottom then its certainly near bottom and great value....4 year chart below.


----------



## Logique (8 July 2008)

There are a bunch of stocks now starting to look attractive, if not compelling to a TA trader.  

I think of big majors like QBE and MQG as proxies for the overall market. For the TA traders, have a look at these two and tell me they aren't drawing your attention at these levels. Even beaten down BNB is moving forward again.

I don't know what it will take to breathe optimism back into world markets. If oil prices could ease it would help. Or the US property market stabilize. Or some better than expected profit announcements.  But it will take something, but then I think there will be quite a stampede of short-covering. 

In short, patiently looking to buy, not sell from here.


----------



## Sean K (8 July 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> I brought MRE - MINARA RESOURCES LTD, today so im calling Bottom @ 2.51



Cripes that's been smashed. Agree with the _potential_ bottom technically. No idea about the funnies.

Obviously PON has crucified it.


----------



## grace (8 July 2008)

BUL  Blue Energy might be one to watch with ANZ now with the say on 31% of their shares thanks to Chimaera Capital.  ANZ haven't started selling yet, but the market is certainly scared.  

I'm watching this one for a top up (will be averaging down unfortunately).  Like the fundamentals though.


----------



## donos (8 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

RNY, RCY, and FXL should all fit into this criteria. Plus they all provide reasonable dividends to tide you over 'til the price comes good.

Donos



So, it's going to be hard to manage unless we nominate things that are **** pick, or a knife catch, or maybe both .....

Not sure whether to separate the fundamental from the technical correction, or what?? 

Thread under construction and welcome for suggestions. 

I think I can manage both constructs with assistance from members to remind me of gains and losses, to be added into the Pickers and Catchers Matrix..

One thing that I think this may achieve is to have a section for punters to lay their best picks on the line, either FA or TA, and we see where they go.

However, it's for a bottom pick!!! Or, there abouts....

Also, the  most important thing is some analysis. 

Some justification for a bottom, or an oversold.

I'm going to record them all, and splash them up when I can, to try and make this wothwhile..

Everyone is under scrutiny so don't just splash up any old sold off dog...


----------



## metric (8 July 2008)

how about catching a sheathed knife. imp may be going through the early stages of a takeover. sp has been way oversold today and there is no reason.....

What makes IMP such a desireable takeover candidate..?

* fundementally sound business. Natural gas in Northeastern USA ...Recession/Depression proof business
* undervalued due to the mob on the Market not having noticed it ...probably because it is an Aussie Company ...but it is drilling "over there" and not "here"
* low SP due to someone playing ducks and drakes with the downselling short at the moment ...possibly with a view of discounting the takeover price of the shares ...when they go for it bigtime
* has gas producing wells ...140+ commercial wells ...60% hedged and 40% enjoying the recent $7 to $13+Mcf price sales rise
* has large acreage of productive leases yet to drill ...over 150 positive Pud sites identified for drilling
* already connected to grid in the biggest most profitable markets of Washington, New York, etc. Very low cost connnection to the grid due to massive close proximity of pipelines ...unlike the dangerously hairy sites in the Gulf of New Mexico
* already pumping gas into the biggest gas marketplace in the world
* are to be part of the Marcellus rush ...Announcement due any day now
* have their own drill rig and crew ...very experienced. They have drilled 25 out of 25 successful wells so far ...100% success rate
* We expect the positive results of current well No.6 any day now ...late this week or early next week.
* rig and crew already on the ground on leases ...yes, and 13 more positive Pud sites formed and compacted ready to speed drill in this current programme over the next 2 months
* have a great foothold in the USA market
* Management have advised that the sale of BMX shares have gone through and $14million will be injected into the Company bank account in the next 2-3 days;
* Loan money of $4mil will be paid out upon receipt of the $14mil, which means $10mil+ clear nett funds into bank account
* Excellent cash flow from the current wells
* Top Managers of the Company hold large slabs of shares and plan to be long time holders;
* Marcellus tenement lease to be announced in the next few days. Huge rush is on by the big companies to drill Marcellus, being made available only to the best and brightest Companies ...IMP being one of them
* $100mil Line of Credit from Macquarie bank at only 8% interest rate ...should they complete their current negotiations to takeover other small time successful Naturarl Gas Company/ies in the neighbouring region of the USA
* imp is cashflow positive

* TO targets are usually small to medium-sized industrial manufacturers or service companies whose depressed shares are largely controlled by a single family or organization.

* a takeover target must have a solid balance sheet and strong cash flows to support the added debt the investors will need to complete the buyout.


----------



## metric (8 July 2008)

and with thanks for the above post written by mrmuzz....


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2008)

While the following doesnt guarentee a reversal will continue this is what Id be looking for technically.The opportunity is for a low risk trade.
The bottom is normally tested---in this case 2 days later--could again--


----------



## bvbfan (9 July 2008)

I think CMR is close to a bottom now, picked up a small lot in the auction.

OXR may still drop to $2 or lower.
EQN at $4 also think it's getting towards a bottom.

I have a feeling OXR will announce a profit downgrade after the EGM from the ZFX side of things.


----------



## MRC & Co (9 July 2008)

bvbfan said:


> EQN at $4 also think it's getting towards a bottom.




Tell me about it, I thought it had decent support and looked extremelly undervalued, until that damn fire!!!!  The unexpected things of the mining world eh!


----------



## doogie_goes_off (9 July 2008)

This thread looks like a bear markets breakout thread. Stocks are down, but let me pick two to make things interesting...

APA, MCR

Bottoms up!


----------



## rhyslivs (10 July 2008)

What was the policy in this thread with regards to small caps? I.e. around the $10mil mark?

*Sultan Corp (SSC)* continually getting new high grade zinc, copper and silver hits with an upgraded resource within the month. Also have BFS for the project within the quarter. Expected to be mining next year. 

Project is close to bathurst, so infrastructure available.

Has been sold down heavily possibly due to sentiment towards zinc at the moment and general negative market sentiment to spec stocks.

It has been releasing a good stream of very positive news and has only been punished for it!

It looks like it has found its bottom (image attached)

Another one is *DMC Mining (DMM)*

Excellent iron ore prospects, terrible PR! Looks to have found its bottom with support around the 55c mark, but its very unpredictable. Much more discussion about its undervaluedness in its thread.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (10 July 2008)

I would like to put up 3 falling knives that I think have bottomed,

Macquarie country wide,............. MCW.
Australian Automotive holdings,.... AHE.
Babcock and brown infrastucture,..BBI.


----------



## Sean K (11 July 2008)

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to track of all these now. Too many nominations and I have a house to clean and food to cook ... Well, food to cook. Actually, we eat out. 

Anyway, too many to keep updating, so: punters, please keep providing updates to your picks with the use of a graph if possible, to see how your bottom or knife is progressing. 

My pick, KMN has come off a bit with the continuing 'severe and imminent correction', but the bottom it still in. So far. 

Bottom called (17c) when stock was at 26c. 

Unfortunately, 30c Great Wall of China halting it.


----------



## cordelia (13 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> Once again it depends on your style and timeframe.
> 
> I know many fundy people who have made a motza picking low valued stocks.
> 
> ...




I have to agree with this. Its totally ridiculous to try and predict when a stock will bottom out. In fact prediction of any movement is ridiculous.

One thing I always find bazaar is the idea of waiting for confirmation. Even if there is so called "confirmation" of a reversal who knows how long it will last. 

Indicators are just as they imply "indicators" and can signal a bottom or a reversal or whatever but anything can happen. I don't think you should rush in and buy a stock just because its cheap and you think its near a bottom but confirmation can often occur when the big move has been made. Buying in then can be just as risky IMO. Sitting on the sidelines waiting for a big sign saying  " its safe to buy this stock now" only plays you into the hands of those who have already positioned themselves.

From my observations when a stock botttoms out it goes sideways for a bit. I think that's a good place to enter with a small position and a tight stop....


----------



## Sean K (13 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



cordelia said:


> Its totally ridiculous to try and predict when a stock will bottom out. In fact prediction of any movement is ridiculous.
> 
> ......
> 
> From my observations when a stock botttoms out it goes sideways for a bit. I think that's a good place to enter with a small position and a tight stop....



So, rediculous, yet you then go and pick a bottom. 

Really 

Having a stop seems to be an important consideration.


----------



## YELNATS (13 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



cordelia said:


> IOne thing I always find bazaar



 is a persian shopping precinct. lol.


----------



## cordelia (13 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> So, rediculous, yet you then go and pick a bottom.
> 
> Really
> 
> Having a stop seems to be an important consideration.




First of all let me say that I think this is a really great thread....My post was in response to the one earlier regarding waiting for a confirmation of a bottom before entering...

Sorry to cause confusion but maybe I didn't word it correctly but just to clarify. I am not saying you can't pick a bottom..clearly you can as evidenced by those who have bought at the bottom just prior to a reversal....  My point was directed more to the idea of waiting for confirmation that a stock has bottomed out and won't fall any further. You can try and predict this but no one can guarantee it. 

It's like trying to predict the top......

I guess what I was really trying to say was that you can get a pretty good idea of the bottom but it is still uncertain. However, by waiting for confirmation of a reversal before taking a position in order to avoid risk you can miss the opportunity of a big price move and there is still no guarantee that the stock will keep going up and not back down to where it was...

Personally I think trying to pick the bottom carries less risk if you manage it well and I am not going to bore everyone with my reasons for that...

There's no guarantees of anything in the market hence my comment about stops...


----------



## subaru69 (14 July 2008)

This might be a little off topic but I wasn't sure where to put it....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/business/13stra.html?em&ex=1216180800&en=9c507bb2f9b1e7f3&ei=5087


Basically it's saying that the guys (and girls) that get paid $M's can't get it right and that you may as well have an index fund.  I know this thread is about individual picks, but if a managed fund is just a collection of individual picks then where do small(ish) investors like us stand?

PS - if you'd asked me 6 months ago I would have said things were cheap , if you asked me a month ago I would have said they were cheaper  (too cheap), now I think we've got further to go .  Which sux because I've run out of capital and have enough of a margin just to allow sleep at night, not further buying .

PPS - despite what I've said above, I'm still looking for the next undervalued stock.  I never learn .

PPPS - I love smilies.


----------



## Dutchy3 (15 July 2008)

I'll have a crack at a bottom pick with this one ...

CVN now moving back within previous support zone at 50ish.

XJO continues to bleed ... this one holds
Reasonable volume kicked in on the white day ... bit of a three day reversal.
Last two days nice and indecisive.


----------



## Logique (17 July 2008)

> I don't know what it will take to breathe optimism back into world markets. If oil prices could ease it would help. Or the US property market stabilize. Or some better than expected profit announcements. But it will take something, but then I think there will be quite a stampede of short-covering.
> 
> In short, patiently looking to buy, not sell from here.



Two out of three overnight in US.  It should be a better day for the knife catchers, especially those who picked up holdings in the financials sector. However one day does not a sustained rally make.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (17 July 2008)

Already caught the MCR knife and bleeding a little but sitting tight incase someone turns up with bandages. APA doing some bottom bouncing.


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2008)

Watching ROY for a potential turn around. Approaching long term support zone. Could just as easily sink through it too...

Not calling a bottom, just watching for one.


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2008)

It's too late to call a bottom in the overall market IMO, but there's a few that are coming to my attention as possible opportunities, even if we have a bear rally. Still dangerous to go Hold and Hope. 

Here's another potentially coming to a lot of support.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (17 July 2008)

Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?

1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
2. Buying what you think is great value.

Is it technical or fundamental or both?

I have enjoyed reading this thread.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 July 2008)

kennas said:


> It's too late to call a bottom in the overall market IMO, but there's a few that are coming to my attention as possible opportunities, even if we have a bear rally. Still dangerous to go Hold and Hope.
> 
> Here's another potentially coming to a lot of support.




Kennas...i Hate QBE so much, the aholes still owe me $600 bucks.:angry:

Anyway its fair to say i missed the bottom with *MRE,* but ill call bottom again for my all 
time favorite *TRY* - TROY RESOURCES....calling Bottom at 1.60 something.

Company Summary

Market Cap: 117,313,615
Issued Shares: 69,829,533
Producing Gold (low cost in Brazil..5 year mine life @ year 1)
55 Million+ in cash.
Debt free.
No Gold hedging.
52-wk High: 3.99
52-wk Low: 1.62
History of 6+ producing gold mines in Brazil and Aust.
20+ Million in shares and Hard assets (excluding cash)
No Liability's.
http://www.try.com.au/

Yes i hold.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?
> 
> 1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
> 2. Buying what you think is great value.
> ...



TA, FA, Gann, Cristal Ball, anything goes Snake, just need some sort of theory why it's at a bottom, or close to. Cheers.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 July 2008)

kennas said:


> TA, FA, Gann, Cristal Ball, anything goes Snake, just need some sort of theory why it's at a bottom, or close to. Cheers.




Thanks Kennas.

Do you think CSL qualifies? Some interesting action today.


----------



## Struzball (19 July 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?
> 
> 1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
> 2. Buying what you think is great value.
> ...




I would assume bottom picking is what you think is the bottom, knife catching is what you think is great value.  Or maybe I've drank too much tonight.


----------



## explod (19 July 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?
> 
> 1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
> 2. Buying what you think is great value.
> ...




Never like the word THINK. this business is about making decisions on the ballance of all available evidence.

1. The bottom cannot be recognised untill has been established.   After the fall the sideways action does not signify the bottom.  When after that period we have a rise in price on volume we may on ballance say we have established the bottom.   Of course some reversals occurr very quickly others take many months.

2.  Value is what you understand to be so.   What others say is of no value and dangerous.   All decisions must be informed by ones own research, this is fundamental.    On technical the same applies, one needs to understand charts and all the elements that comprise its structure so that it is your own research leading to your own decisions.    Tips, opinions and reccommendations can be great leads, no more no less.


----------



## Sean K (19 July 2008)

explod said:


> Never like the word THINK. this business is about making decisions on the ballance of all available evidence.



Confused explod. 

Can you make a decision, without thinking? 

What's your replacement word? 

Conclusion?
Sum of all evidence?
Generally considered position?
The sum of all available information?



Semantics? 



explod said:


> What others say is of no value and dangerous.



Thanks for the heads up.


----------



## explod (19 July 2008)

kennas said:


> Confused explod.
> 
> Can you make a decision, without thinking?
> 
> ...




To say "I think" is to indicate that one is uncertain.   It is necessary to think, of course.  However before reaching a final decision one need to have moved pased the state of "think" to the area, however unperfect of "know"

Reflexion on our self talk is an important element of decision making in my view.

And pedantic semantics is good exercise on this Saturday morning.


----------



## Sean K (19 July 2008)

explod said:


> And pedantic semantics is good exercise on this Saturday morning.



Therefore, I am.


----------



## explod (19 July 2008)

kennas said:


> Therefore, I am.




I think a great two words of the Dame herself, was that "I am moist"


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 July 2008)

subaru69 said:


> now I think we've got further to go .  Which sux because I've run out of capital and have enough of a margin just to allow sleep at night, not further buying .
> 
> .




lmao,.... I am hearing you mate, But no down turn last's forever, So I think we will be good in the long run. I don't think it will be a fast recovery but if you continue to invest at regularly in 12 - 18 months I think you will be pretty happy.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 July 2008)

explod said:


> To say "I think" is to indicate that one is uncertain.   It is necessary to think, of course.  However before reaching a final decision one need to have moved pased the state of "think" to the area, however unperfect of "know"
> 
> Reflexion on our self talk is an important element of decision making in my view.
> 
> And pedantic semantics is good exercise on this Saturday morning.




Sorry total bunk. But I like semantics. 

What do you think? (an opinion follows this question) Usually what you think, perhaps know, but usually what you think. 

We never really know. If I knew I would be richer than anybody. It is impossible to ever know in the stock market. 

Thinking is part of the congnitive process and does not indicate weakness, nor display inferiority. What you are attempting to do with your opinion (what you think) is cut the normal thought process into bits.


----------



## prawn_86 (22 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



prawn_86 said:


> IPR: Ipernica
> They are a firm that deals in solving IP problems/breach of IP. They gain a fee when they reach settlement of the breach. Basically like IP lawyers or at least something along those lines.
> Last year was about 18c now 7.6c. Current MC of about 21mill cash at bank 32mill  No debt
> 
> ...




Well this one panned out sooner than i thought, but with a market inefficiency like that its not surprising...


----------



## explod (22 July 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Sorry total bunk. But I like semantics.
> 
> What do you think? (an opinion follows this question) Usually what you think, perhaps know, but usually what you think.
> 
> ...




What I think is the process to knowledge for me.  I would not decide on what I think but it helps me to explore the possiblity.  If the possibility becomes probable then I have something to investigate with greater impetus.

e.g.  

1.    I know that the US is virtually broke

2.    I know that the US dollar is being printed to worthlessness

3.    From reading history I know that gold holds its value

4.    Since 2002 I know that gold has gone up average around 30% per year

5.    I know that certain sections of the community (I will not name race)     for the last couple of years have been selling property and buying physical gold.

So by bying some physical gold I know that I have reasonable insurance against a crash in other things.  If this does not occur then I know that I will survive on the other things.  In Australia we are insulated from some of these matters and our dollar is growing stronger so I know we are protected one way or the other.

So to think is ok, and thank goodness that we can, but it is just the beginning.    And self talk IMHO is well worth the contemplation.

Bunkum??

But having said all that I most certainly missread the bottom for SBM.


----------



## pepperoni (22 July 2008)

explod said:


> 5.    I know that certain sections of the community (I will not name race)     for the last couple of years have been selling property and buying physical gold.




Hmmm ... interesting ... if its true its pretty hard to know


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2008)

explod said:


> 5.    I know that certain sections of the community (I will not name race)     for the last couple of years have been selling property and buying physical gold.




OMG!! That's a bloody shocker:angry:


----------



## Wysiwyg (22 July 2008)

> 3. From reading history I know that gold holds its value




Not from 1987 to 2000 it didn`t.Break even would have been 2005.17 years is a long time to wait for value to return.For some it`s nice to look at but better bought when out of favour for mine.

Historical chart.


----------



## explod (22 July 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> Not from 1987 to 2000 it didn`t.Break even would have been 2005.17 years is a long time to wait for value to return.For some it`s nice to look at but better bought when out of favour for mine.
> 
> Historical chart.




That situation was created by decoupling gold from currencies.  A very recent phenomena.   In doing that of course paper money was no longer backed by anything more than bank promise, a promise on which they appear no longer able to deliver.

So yes gold was suppresed artificially from 80 to 2000 but it is flying out of the bag now.

There was a time when an ounce of gold was a dollar coin,  it is 1000 times greater today.   Jason Hommell, (a raging ramper of course) says its going to between 20 and 50,000 per ounce.  I'll be happy if only a fraction of that is true.

So yes you have had a 20 year dip, the bottom of the dip was 1998 to 2002and compared to previous bulls in gold we have just come off the bottom of this one .


----------



## professor_frink (22 July 2008)

explod said:


> That situation was created by decoupling gold from currencies.  A very recent phenomena.   In doing that of course paper money was no longer backed by anything more than bank promise, a promise on which they appear no longer able to deliver.
> 
> So yes gold was suppresed artificially from 80 to 2000 but it is flying out of the bag now.
> 
> ...




could you clarify the end of your statement for me explod? Which bullmarkets are you referring to outside of the one in the 70's?


----------



## explod (22 July 2008)

professor_frink said:


> could you clarify the end of your statement for me explod? Which bullmarkets are you referring to outside of the one in the 70's?




I cant, a bit wild that one and apologise   

In fact the gold standard used to keep gold prices fairly stable.  There was a bit of a jump around 1936 from $US20 to $35 where it was then  held in check by US Government Regulation.

The decoupling of gold from currrency created the conditions on which gold could rise from that $35 to the $800 peak in 1980.

My contention is (and this should be on the gold thread) that this situation is repeating and the ratio says to me that it will go very high indeed this time.


----------



## professor_frink (22 July 2008)

explod said:


> I cant, a bit wild that one and apologise
> 
> In fact the gold standard used to keep gold prices fairly stable.  There was a bit of a jump around 1936 from $US20 to $35 where it was then  held in check by US Government Regulation.
> 
> ...




I'll go and make my next post over in the gold thread so that this thread stays on topic


----------



## Schmuckie (25 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Schmuckie said:


> I caught one bottom and one falling knife in recent months, and have profited immensely on both.
> 
> ...
> 
> ...




Yeeesssssss!!!!!

Since posting this, I bought a few more shares.  Aurelian got taken out this morning, and I sold all my shares for a pretty profit at the opening.

Used the proceeds to buy a whole whack of EQN shares -- speaking of falling knives.


----------



## Sean K (25 July 2008)

Knife catching trade opp on NAB.

Looks overdone.

Off 11%


----------



## adluroil (25 July 2008)

MDT is one that has it the bottom IMO 
would like some comments from other forum members on this one


----------



## nioka (25 July 2008)

MCR must be at rock bottom. I've started buying back in. Luckily for me I sold at a price over 50% above my buy back price.Sold at $3.20 and had the opportunity to buy back at$1.91. This is another benefit I have from my mistake in buying CFE by ticking the wrong box. I not only made a profit on the CFE buy and sold them before the latest fall but I now have 50% more MCR than I would have had if I not made the error. I had sold the MCR to cover my CFE buy.

 With a PE ratio now of about 4 to 1 and increasing production mostly offsetting the falling nickel price it is hard to see the SP of MCR falling much more. 

Oh how I love this bear market.


----------



## Sean K (25 July 2008)

kennas said:


> Knife catching trade opp on NAB.
> 
> Looks overdone.
> 
> Off 11%



Cripes 13%, what did they do, ann they had no money in the bank.


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2008)

There will be opportunity but let it show itself.


----------



## subaru69 (25 July 2008)

tech/a said:


> There will be opportunity but let it show itself.




Is this the high volume 'capitulation' selling that I've read can be a signal in a market/sector bottom?


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2008)

Its NOT at a bottom.
This is a retracement in a corrective up move in an overall bear trend.
Not close yet in my view.
Around 5500-5700 this move before making new lows.
4200 ish.
Once it gets toward there you'll see some capitulation!


----------



## So_Cynical (27 July 2008)

Interesting to see that my Knife catching isn't going to bad, even after 
the fall of Friday...outa my 5 picks i have 4 bouncers.

Approximate prices

PPX 1.60 > 2.05
TOL 6.05 > 6.65
FCL 1.00 > 1.35
MRE 2.50 > 1.95
TRY 1.65 > 1.95

Thing is i brought the 1 that didn't bounce.


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Interesting to see that my Knife catching isn't going to bad, even after
> the fall of Friday...outa my 5 picks i have 4 bouncers. Thing is i brought the 1 that didn't bounce.





 Ya reckon? A look at the percentage moves is more revealing. 
PPX 1.60 > 2.05 = 28%
TOL 6.05 > 6.65 = 10%
FCL 1.00 > 1.35 = 35%
MRE 2.50 > 1.95 = - 22%
TRY 1.65 > 1.95 = 18%


----------



## MRC & Co (27 July 2008)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



Schmuckie said:


> Yeeesssssss!!!!!
> 
> Since posting this, I bought a few more shares.  Aurelian got taken out this morning, and I sold all my shares for a pretty profit at the opening.
> 
> Used the proceeds to buy a whole whack of EQN shares -- speaking of falling knives.




LOL, my pick hey!  EQN is definately a falling knife!  Fire at the site, delayed construction, copper prices coming off, not looking good in the short-term!  Luckily, I don't think the turnaround will come until it actually nears production, then it should really take off and I will look to add to my position.  Copper still looks in high demand relative to supply from my last view of the stats despite it technically looking terrible!!!!!!

People also forget too about the uranium stocks they have in the ground!


----------



## tech/a (27 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Ya reckon? A look at the percentage moves is more revealing.
> PPX 1.60 > 2.05 = 28%
> TOL 6.05 > 6.65 = 10%
> FCL 1.00 > 1.35 = 35%
> ...




Its important in any trade to know where you are in terms of position of the move in a stock.
PPX is at the end of a current wave 5
So is TOL and TRY so no suprises there.
MRE is still in a wave 3 so no suprises it kept falling.
FCL is in a wave 4 correction leading to a wave 5 completion so another good move which is likley now to come off.

PPX and TOL likely to continue.
TRY conflicting analysis for longer term
MRE unlikely to turn bullish--yet.
FCL likely to turn here or at best go to around $1.50 before turning back down.


----------



## MichaelD (28 July 2008)

Just did a quick tot up of the numbers in this thread. Interesting.

51 bottom picks. No trade closures.

24 are ahead
27 are behind

Open profit % is 262% (10.9% average open profit per position)
Open loss % is 470% (17.4% average open loss per position)

Be even more interesting to see what the figures are in a few months.


----------



## JTLP (28 July 2008)

CGF
7th July - Close 2.16

28th July - Close 2.24

+.08.

I am a weiner


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Just did a quick tot up of the numbers in this thread. Interesting.
> 
> 51 bottom picks. No trade closures.
> 
> ...



Michael, you're missing the point of the thread. It's not a competition between you and anyone else. 

This was about picking stocks that have been sold off to represent fundamental value, or stocks technically finding a potential bottom. 

I started keeping tabs just for interest sake, and to keep people honest.

I shouldn't have mentioned having stops, or anything about trading for profit or mitigating losses, because that was not my purpose here. 

I lump this thread with the POTENTIAL Breakout Thread, in that it identifies some stocks that people may want to research themselves as potential invesment or trading opportunites.

If you want to prove that you can throw a dart at the board and then just manage the trade to make profit, then you're most welcome to do so. The start New Thread button is on the top left of the page. 

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 July 2008)

Kennas surely its fair enough for some to runs some stats? That in its self is a very interesting and worth while exercise.

Something that I find most people don't do and for good reason. It would depresses them.


----------



## brty (29 July 2008)

Hi,

Those numbers of 24 winners and 27 losers, are really very good in the current market. A quick look at the July stock picking competition shows only 9.88% currently in profit.

So Michael, how would dart throwing have gone in the same period, I would guess much worse. 

brty


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Kennas surely its fair enough for some to runs some stats? That in its self is a very interesting and worth while exercise.
> 
> Something that I find most people don't do and for good reason. It would depresses them.



Yep, fair enough, it's why I started doing it.

The intent is different.


----------



## nioka (29 July 2008)

Put me down for CFE. I can't imagine why there are sellers at today's price. The companies cash position alone justifies a higher price. Yesterday's news that the Russian bid is still around must add value as investors investigate the potential of CFE. DYOR

PS. I have also caugth the falling knife. Let us see if I get it by the handle and not the blade.


----------



## MichaelD (29 July 2008)

kennas said:


> Michael, you're missing the point of the thread. It's not a competition between you and anyone else.
> 
> This was about picking stocks that have been sold off to represent fundamental value, or stocks technically finding a potential bottom.
> 
> I started keeping tabs just for interest sake, and to keep people honest.




Interesting (and confusing) viewpoint.

So the point of this thread is to post your bottom picks but NOT to actually do any follow-up on this to find out if the bottom picking premise has any validity. I would have thought that such information would be quite valuable.


----------



## MichaelD (29 July 2008)

brty said:


> So Michael, how would dart throwing have gone in the same period, I would guess much worse.
> 
> brty




I will work out how to extract a report from my own trend following system (which is close to dart throwing) only taking trades opened from 1-Jul and post the results.

It will indeed be interesting to keep track of this in parallel.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (29 July 2008)

Noika - probably should put this on the MCR thread but it has to be a bargain basement price. I'm guessing cause I havent looked at the previous annual report, but I guess they'd still make money at $5-7 a pound and anything extra is profit, maybe everyones projecting the down trend? Then why the hell would copper hold up so well??? I'll still consider accumulating, but it's hard to let go of the bloody knives when there's such negative sentiment around the whole market just because the banks had it too good and forgot to run a measuring tape over their business models. Banks are run by 'smart' people aren't they?


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Interesting (and confusing) viewpoint.
> 
> So the point of this thread is to post your bottom picks but NOT to actually do any follow-up on this to find out if the bottom picking premise has any validity. I would have thought that such information would be quite valuable.



Yes, you are probably right.

My point for the thread though was just to identify possible bottoms or value, but not a complete trading/investing methodology. That's covered in plenty of other threads.

As I mentioned, similar to the potential breakout thread. 

You've wanted to turn this into an investment competition between FA/TA verses your trading technique, which is just a diversion from what my intent was.

There's been some good ideas presented here, and once they're identified it's up to the individual to do with them what they like. 

For the record I sold my pick of KMN about a week ago. Still think we may have seen a bottom, but just tracking sideways now, and I wanted some more cash in the bank.


----------



## MRC & Co (29 July 2008)

Yes, this is the problem, those current stats Michael posted are very very short-term, let's remember, these picks represent long-term fundamental value and as such, gains will probably not be realised for some years.

Furthermore, these trades are just a one off by most people, they are not managing them.  So when do you know if some of these companies stated have already been prooven invalidated due to a recent release?  Is everybody going to update their position should they choose to exit?  I personally will update mine should I choose out of EQN.  Fundamentals are not simply buy and hold forever.

You can add CCP to that also.  Which is a very spec buy simply for a good R:R play.  

I will be happy to run a competition along with a few others who use fundamentals or like me, occassionally will use them, who wish to post their fundamental picks and then state any updates should they choose to add to a position or exit a position, which can be compared over a longer timeframe with someone such as MichaelD and his T/A system.  You can see my own T/A system performance from now on in my blog.  Though, this month will probably be nearly as poor as these fundamental picks.    But I think most T/A systems would this month, other than perhaps a scalper such as TH.  Scalping futures is the only thing providing me with some rice and water at the moment, literally!!!! lol.

Again, since I don't make many fundamental trades, only the very odd one, we will need a few others prepared to make some and actively manage them.  

Justification of your fundamental positions would be needed, along with Michael providing justification for his entries/exits etc.  But MM will have to be taken out of the equation as there will be numerous posters.  So will have to work on a pure % basis.

I think it would be an interesting result either way.


----------



## MichaelD (29 July 2008)

kennas said:


> You've wanted to turn this into an investment competition between FA/TA verses your trading technique, which is just a diversion from what my intent was.
> 
> For the record I sold my pick of KMN about a week ago. Still think we may have seen a bottom, but just tracking sideways now, and I wanted some more cash in the bank.




I am not at all wanting a "competition" - I truly have no idea why you seem fixated on that concept. A competition would be a waste of everyone's time.

What we have here in this thread is the postulate that bottoms can be picked.

As you no doubt are aware, I do not subscribe to this view.

Nonetheless, I'm interested in knowing whether such stockpicking can outperform how I currently trade, either short term or long term, and the only way to tell is by keeping track of performance.

There's a tremendous amount of value to be gained by doing this in real time and studying how the two disciplines perform in parallel.

(btw, I did not see you call a bottom on KMN in this thread so I did not include it in the calculations).



MRC & Co said:


> Yes, this is the problem, those current stats Michael posted are very very short-term, let's remember, these picks represent long-term fundamental value and as such, gains will probably not be realised for some years.
> 
> Furthermore, these trades are just a one off by most people, they are not managing them.  So when do you know if some of these companies stated have already been prooven invalidated due to a recent release?  Is everybody going to update their position should they choose to exit?  I personally will update mine should I choose out of EQN.  Fundamentals are not simply buy and hold forever.




Agreed, the stats are short term hence I made no comment on them when I posted them and will only update monthly.

One very obvious point is that slightly more than 1/2 the picks continued to fall in the short term - it will be interesting to compare this to what my trades since 1-Jul have done which I will do and report on.

I also agree that money management is an issue, and the best one can do with stock picks is equal % position sizing, versus fixed fractional for my trading.


----------



## tulasi74 (29 July 2008)

tech/a said:


> Its important in any trade to know where you are in terms of position of the move in a stock.
> PPX is at the end of a current wave 5
> So is TOL and TRY so no suprises there.
> MRE is still in a wave 3 so no suprises it kept falling.
> ...




Hey tech/a

I don't see any waves in MRE.  I only see a straight down move from $6.06 on 7 May to current price  Can you please elaborate?  Maybe on the MRE thread?


----------



## MichaelD (29 July 2008)

Summary of my long term trades since 1-Jul-2008 (counting only trades opened since 1-Jul-2008);

7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


Bottom Picking;
51 bottom picks. No trade closures.

24 are ahead
27 are behind

Open profit % is 262% (10.9% average open profit per position)
Open loss % is 470% (17.4% average open loss per position)


----------



## MichaelD (29 July 2008)

One last post on this for now. I've now applied fixed % money management to all the bottom picks (equal $ values per initial position). This allows much closer comparison of performance;

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss 4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## ans25 (29 July 2008)

tulasi74 said:


> Hey tech/a
> 
> I don't see any waves in MRE.  I only see a straight down move from $6.06 on 7 May to current price  Can you please elaborate?  Maybe on the MRE thread?




Price of Nickel is falling mate.


Put me down as well for CFE

Id like to throw up another one- SBM - if it can hold 30c by the end of this week I think its a good buy (hence a bottom).
I could be wrong but just taking a stab with a falling knife... umm sorry abt the bad joke


----------



## johnnyg (31 July 2008)

Ill throw CVN into the mix. Although my chart knowledge is limited looks to of formed a double bottom and good support ~ 0.45. Not 100% sure on EW count but could be nearing the end of wave 4? With a possible projection of $1-1.10 towards the end of the year?

Cheers.


----------



## prawn_86 (4 August 2008)

I'll have to nominate TMR today, a real falling knife.

It was down 40% at one stage but is now 'only' down 18%. NTA is about 14c per share, current price 3.5c. Someone knows that things are not right, or it is a huge over-reaction. Just raised 30mill at 11.5c about a month ago...


----------



## Stinger (4 August 2008)

RDS is another. down 40% on just 3 trades. possible capital raising coming up soon but think the current price is too low. company seems to have a lot of good ground and potential.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (4 August 2008)

Stinger said:


> RDS is another. down 40% on just 3 trades. possible capital raising coming up soon but think the current price is too low. company seems to have a lot of good ground and potential.




Probably one of the hardest to trade going by the chart. Liquidity is low.


----------



## YELNATS (4 August 2008)

ans25 said:


> Id like to throw up another one- SBM - if it can hold 30c by the end of this week I think its a good buy (hence a bottom).
> I could be wrong but just taking a stab with a falling knife... umm sorry abt the bad joke




Now at 26.5c, makes it an even better buy, doesn't it? Have been watching this for some time, but trying to time the entry to perfection, almost impossible I know.


----------



## ans25 (4 August 2008)

Hmmm scrub SBM

IM all for CSR!!!


----------



## prawn_86 (6 August 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> I'll have to nominate TMR today, a real falling knife.
> 
> It was down 40% at one stage but is now 'only' down 18%. NTA is about 14c per share, *current price 3.5c. *Someone knows that things are not right, or it is a huge over-reaction. Just raised 30mill at 11.5c about a month ago...




And out today above 4c would be a nice profit for a couple of days.

Finally i got a short term trade right


----------



## MRC & Co (6 August 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> And out today above 4c would be a nice profit for a couple of days.
> 
> Finally i got a short term trade right




Good stuff mate!  Nice profit there, hope you had a low risk entry and pumped up that position size!


----------



## Sean K (9 August 2008)

Just breaking through $35 looks important.

May be a bottom down there.

For now.


----------



## AnDy62 (10 August 2008)

AnDy62 said:


> Great thread, love it
> 
> Can I throw Macquarie Leisure Trust, MLE into the ring. *Currently $1.515*, after hitting highs of $3.89. Nothing has realing changed for this company which has Dreamworld as its main investment as well as bowling centres, marinas and I think moving into gyms. Sold down on its name sharing with Macquarie and worries about the economy/fuel costs dampening Dreamworld activity etc. Overdone? IMO yes.




Nice little recovery, up to $1.96 atm


----------



## Sean K (11 August 2008)

AnDy62 said:


> Nice little recovery, up to $1.96 atm



Nice work Andy.

Question now is when to take profits, or let it keep running. Or, will it head back to $1.50...

Interested to see how you play it.


----------



## dubiousinfo (11 August 2008)

TPI has recovered to around $7.50. I'm looking to stick with it for the moment with a target of $8.50, but expect this to take some time.

GPT looks to have bottomed and buying last week at around the $1.55 level looks to have some promise.


----------



## cordelia (11 August 2008)

Just a question...can you nominate stocks that you think have bottomed out without stipulating a time limit befor ethey start to move up? Sometimes they can go sideways for months..


----------



## adluroil (12 August 2008)

MDT is up 100% from the time that i said that i thought it had reached the bottom . Any one get on at 22 cents 
I am now picking SBM , i think the only way is up as the US dollar rises against the Aussie dollar


----------



## Go Nuke (12 August 2008)

adluroil said:


> MDT is up 100% from the time that i said that i thought it had reached the bottom . Any one get on at 22 cents
> I am now picking SBM , i think the only way is up as the US dollar rises against the Aussie dollar




Why would you think that?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but when the U.S dollar strengthens the price of GOLD will fall?

Support for gold at around $810


----------



## AnDy62 (12 August 2008)

You're right Go Nuke,

Maybe that first pick was more a**e than class.


----------



## adluroil (13 August 2008)

Because the price of Gold hasn't dropped as much in Australian Dollars
They are getting more Au dollars per ounce .The mine is in Australia . Seems the ratio of value of Gold / US dollars / Aussie dollar/ is not constant .


----------



## goatpointer (13 August 2008)

Great thread which I have only just found.
Here are a couple of candidates:
IVT  -  Inventis.  Has been as high as 42 cents and is currently around 10 cents.  Had a foray into aviation which turned to custard big time.  Now shot of it and should be into recovery mode soonish.

THR - Thor Mining.  Languishing around 7c at present after being upto 38 - 40 cents.  Have 3 new mining leases and Western Desert (WDR) has taken a 16.7% stake.  Despite this THR are finding that funding for development is difficult.  If they can fix that then who knows - Molybdenum and tungsten prices seem to be doing OK as well.

Agree with QOL.  

Cheers and DYOR


----------



## MichaelD (28 August 2008)

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


For comparison, last month's figures:

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## MRC & Co (28 August 2008)

I guess 2 of those open trades out of the 57 are even?

More importantly, how do you know more of those 57 havne't been closed?  Some people just post and then disappear or won't tell you when their analysis has been invalidated...........more importantly still, some won't even know when their analysis has been invalidated and will have no method other than to set and forget or close it when they get scared........


----------



## MichaelD (28 August 2008)

MRC - all valid points, and part of the reason I merely posted the numbers. I have my views on the subject, but would rather let the numbers reveal what they will reveal.

Here are some interesting stats expanding on the numbers;

Bottom Picking - we are now 2 months into the exercise.

Open winners  41%
Average open win  17%
Average open loss  -25%

The obvious conclusion at this point that can be drawn is that 3 out of 5 bottom picks kept going down.


----------



## MRC & Co (28 August 2008)

Yes, definately interesting stats and thx for keeping track of them.  

I will be interested to see how it goes over say a couple year period.  

I for one will let you know when I exit my two long positions here.  Both CCP and EQN, for now, they remain open.  Not sure if they are up or down since posting them here, but I am looking more for the next couple years and them becoming double baggers. 

It would be good if anybody who posted in this thread and is still reading, posts when they realise their analysis is invalidated.  Will make the stats a bit more realistic.  Though, the quality of analysis can then be questioned, including my own, but there is quite a large number of pickers in this test.  Some used T/A, some used F/A, some used both and some simply used their 'feelings' by the looks. Many will also have differing timeframes and many will be looking for differing returns (specs with huge upside potential etc) lol.  Either way, provides for an interesting study.  ASF bottom pickers Vs a tested and prooven system.  

Thx once more for the stats.


----------



## prawn_86 (28 August 2008)

The only one i closed (which i stated) was TMR for about 30% profit.

Still have open:
QOL - down 30%
IPR - up 38%
EDE - down 28%
PLT - even


QOL is constantly being evaluated, but is still a medium term hold.

IPR I will think of selling when its MC is above its cash at bank (currently negative EV being assigned to it).

EDE is long term, like 3 - 5 years. If its hythane does get installed in EVERY bus in India wel then who knows what will happen...

About even so far (slightly up) assuming equal position sizing.


----------



## The Mint Man (1 September 2008)

What do you all think of RAT?
Have watched this one tumble all the way down. Off about 27% (from memory) today however up about 25% from its low. 
So worth a punt or not?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (2 September 2008)

The Mint Man said:


> What do you all think of RAT?
> Have watched this one tumble all the way down. Off about 27% (from memory) today however up about 25% from its low.
> So worth a punt or not?
> 
> Cheers



Cripes, what a chart. Not many worse. Probably because it has the words America and Trust in it. eeeeek! 

And, I ass u me, has something to do with property. 

Might be good as a knife catch trade with a close stop, but just as likely to go into administration at the drop of a hat.

(Just a pluck, no idea what it does.....)


----------



## The Mint Man (2 September 2008)

kennas said:


> Cripes, what a chart. Not many worse. Probably because it has the words America and Trust in it. eeeeek!
> 
> And, I ass u me, has something to do with property.
> 
> ...



yes, yes and yes. It was to sell off some its portfolio but that fell through a couple of days ago, however my guess would be that there is someone out there willing to buy some American commercial property (mostly government tenants last time I checked) at a good price.
Seriously considering having a go!

Cheers


----------



## johnnyg (2 September 2008)

AIM could be one to watch. Looks to of found a floor @ ~ 0.025 and ticked up to 0.029 today. Positive Divergence on the daily aswell. Would of been good to pick up a few days earlier.


----------



## justjohn (2 September 2008)

The Mint Man said:


> yes, yes and yes. It was to sell off some its portfolio but that fell through a couple of days ago, however my guess would be that there is someone out there willing to buy some American commercial property (mostly government tenants last time I checked) at a good price.
> Seriously considering having a go!
> 
> Cheers




Well minty down another 25% today ,I'D wait tomorrow it may be even cheaper ,the way it's going


----------



## The Mint Man (4 September 2008)

justjohn said:


> Well minty down another 25% today ,I'D wait tomorrow it may be even cheaper ,the way it's going




Had an order in at $0.04 the other day when it was getting smashed, unfortunately it didn't quite get there..... someone has to turn a buck on this thing haha wouldn't it make you feel good if a mate made some on it.:


----------



## MichaelD (12 September 2008)

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%



Last Month:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


2 Months Ago:

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## MichaelD (24 October 2008)

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%


Last Month
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%



2 Months Ago:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


3 Months Ago:

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## prawn_86 (24 October 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Bottom Picking:
> 57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
> 1 closed trade
> Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%




Have you taken into account any dividends? 

IPR did a 1c divvy. From my 'buy' price thats about a 12% return. Not much but better then nothing.


----------



## MRC & Co (24 October 2008)

Ouch on both methods!  

I'm still holding EQN 

It's my hedge encase the global economy and Dr Copper decide a positive prognosis.  

Sticking to my guns with that one.  But intraday trading is far and away the way to go, volatility has been B E A U T I F U L.  Though I'm a bit worried with the book thinning and instos being forced to sell.  Easier intraday manipulation and less paper to follow.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 October 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Ouch on both methods!
> 
> I'm still holding EQN
> 
> ...




already selling mate .check out the shareholder notices of late lots of the managed funds cashing in a few for liquidity reasons due to the mass withdrawal attempts of nervous depositers heading for the safety of "guaranteed" deposits in the banks ..some have been buying here and there but the majority of notices ive seen have been more on the sell side

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/filter/shareholder+notices?opendocument


cheers


----------



## Out Too Soon (24 October 2008)

I hope I've picked the bottom here, I also like CVN & NMS but catching knives might be more apt.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 October 2008)

Out Too Soon said:


> View attachment 25101
> 
> I hope I've picked the bottom here, I also like CVN & NMS but catching knives might be more apt.




hey at least ya got a nice low% loss on stopout point if trade breaks recent support....... oh thats if it dont majorly gap thru it  .

good luck with it hope ya make a motza


----------



## Bushman (12 November 2008)

Geez it was a bit premature in July but I am calling the bottom on the A-REIT sector now that Stockland, GPT, Goodman and Mirvac have recapitalised. 

A few are flying today - have a look at Abacus. But then again all A-REIT's are at 52-week lows (if nit greater). 

My pick in July (LEP) has held up alright. 

The resources tips have, off course, been obliterated!


----------



## Out Too Soon (17 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> hey at least ya got a nice low% loss on stopout point if trade breaks recent support....... oh thats if it dont majorly gap thru it  .
> 
> good luck with it hope ya make a motza




Still going down,  maybe the bottom is 1.31, been playing & losing on this one for a long while now but It would seem similar to most stocks on ASX and the world. Pick the bottom of the ASX then jump on just about anything.


----------



## dhukka (20 November 2008)

Bought some REF today. Company has no debt, most of their earnings are in GBP, exchange rate has improved since 2H08. Earnings expected to be flat to slightly down this year. Typically pays out 100% of its earnings as dividends, current forecast Dividend for FY09 of 21 cents, bought at $0.98 today,  forecast dividend yield of *21.4%*, finished the day at $0.96, the way things are going it could be $0.86 by tomorrow. Clearly the market doesn't think the dividend is sustainable. Time will tell.


----------



## SoBadAtTrading (20 November 2008)

dhukka said:


> Bought some REF today. Company has no debt, most of their earnings are in GBP, exchange rate has improved since 2H08. Earnings expected to be flat to slightly down this year. Typically pays out 100% of its earnings as dividends, current forecast Dividend for FY09 of 21 cents, bought at $0.98 today,  forecast dividend yield of *21.4%*, finished the day at $0.96, the way things are going it could be $0.86 by tomorrow. Clearly the market doesn't think the dividend is sustainable. Time will tell.





I got this one just 1 day too early 
Looking at the course of sales, it does look like some sort of programmed selling/buying is going on.


----------



## MichaelD (23 November 2008)

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%


1 Month
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%


2 Months
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


3 Months
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


4 Months
Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## BearCuban12 (24 November 2008)

What about BLY, NWH and MAH. Does anyone expect big gains once all of this panic selling malakey finishes?


----------



## Sean K (26 November 2008)

Anyone going to take a stab at catching RIO on the open?



Ooo, that was punful...


----------



## wayneL (26 November 2008)

kennas said:


> Anyone going to take a stab at catching RIO on the open?
> 
> 
> 
> Ooo, that was punful...




I've been trying to sell some WT<blinkety-blink>OTM credit spreads on RTP (NYSE listed RIO), but MMs don't want to play. 

Question: Is RIO scrip worth nailing to the wall at these prices?? I'm a bit sceptical of miners TBH. (But then, I'm pretty much sceptical of everything


----------



## noirua (29 November 2008)

kennas said:


> While a stock hitting all time lows or plunging dramatically is not necessarily a good stock recommendation, there are sometimes opportunities to be had from things oversold.
> 
> I'm not sure if we're getting to the point of the market hitting a bottom, but it's time we longer term investors started looking at some potential value in the market, and where our cash could be directed. Bottom pickers.
> 
> ...




Nearly 5 months later and this post still seems to apply, now even more so. Ok if you just get nicked by the knife but not good if it takes a finger.


----------



## MichaelD (12 December 2008)

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## Sean K (16 December 2008)

Perhaps a chance to grab the TLS falling knife.

Initially oversold maybe.

Short term tradeable.

Maybe.


----------



## prawn_86 (16 December 2008)

So far im 2 out of 4... 

QOL picked at 11.5c. Virtually broke now, not much hope of recovering
EDE already in a prolonged halt. Probably broke
IPR same price as what i picked it but has paid a 13% divvy
PLT about 50% up on what i picked.

Still 'happy' to hold them all


----------



## Nyden (16 December 2008)

Picked up my official first 'long term' hold of the bear market - CBA. Got in around about $28 today, already sitting on a nice 3% gain  Looks to be fairly strong support around 27-28, and it's been sitting on yearly lows, perhaps due to fear surrounding CNP. Of course, what with the capital raising - this will probably change tomorrow :


----------



## chops_a_must (16 December 2008)

kennas said:


> Perhaps a chance to grab the TLS falling knife.
> 
> Initially oversold maybe.
> 
> ...



Wait for it to stabilise Kennas, and have a crack at the gaps.

3 from 3 with everything I've bought on the way down. Pure **** more than anything I think...


----------



## Gundini (16 December 2008)

Yes I have started to have a bit of a nibble.

Couldn't resist TLS Kennas, only picked up 1/4 of my intended holdings.

Also have picked up some WBC, CDU, BSL, CSL, TPI and EWC over the last few days.

It's not that I have turned bullish, but they are all at lows and represent long term value for my portfolio. 

Heck, I've been on the sidelines for over a year now, and while I still expect another leg down before some sort of base is reached, I feel like chipping away at the quality on sale!


----------



## MichaelD (18 December 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> So far im 2 out of 4...
> 
> QOL picked at 11.5c. Virtually broke now, not much hope of recovering
> EDE already in a prolonged halt. Probably broke
> ...




Erm - not quite the whole story.

QOL - in at 0.125 (next open after call made), currently 0.008 (last close)
EDE - in at 0.265 (next open after call made), last trade 0.145 (in halt)
IPR - in at 0.084 (next open after call made), last trade 0.076 (last close), dividend paid 0.01 per share
PLT - in at 0.14 (next open after call made), last trade 0.195 (last close).

Assuming fixed % position sizing of $10,000 per position, let's tot up the actual figures (excluding brokerage).

QOL - $10,000 - now worth $640
EDE - $10,000 - now worth $5470 (at last trade)
IPR - $10,000 - now worth $9050 + $1190 dividend
PLT - $10,000 - now $13,930

$40000 is now worth $30280 including dividend

If EDE is a write off, then
$40000 is now worth $24810 including dividend.


----------



## prawn_86 (18 December 2008)

Hence why the embarasment symbol Michael, im not too impressed with my results, losses far outweigh the gains. But hopefully that will change over time. 

How much is the market or small cap sector down by? would be interesting for a % comparison

It all depends on EDE really and if they can come out and actually survive, but i doubt it, if they come out of a halt they will prob drop like a stone down to about 1c


----------



## psychic (21 December 2008)

QRS is one for the bottom pickers and knife catchers

Here is a 2 month chart showing  the drop, particulary the large drop on Friday last week, with volume I must add.


----------



## CecilHills (21 December 2008)

Gundini, Top tips, mate.6 from 6; substantial gains on all. Would you take profits on any?Thanks.


----------



## sinner (23 December 2008)

Are we allowed to post trades we made but forgot to post here as tips?

I picked a slice of RMS at 0.45, now at 0.56 (unchanged for the day) up 24.4%!

I made a good play on IZZ up 20% but forgot to sell out due to uni exams before it dropped down to 10%.

PS: I am officially a bachelor of science woohoo!

PPS: I think IAU is still in good zone for bottom pickers at 0.2


----------



## CamKawa (21 January 2009)

With market going sideways for a while it's been slim pickings on the knife catching front however I think ASX might worth a punt. What do you reckon?


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2009)

CamKawa said:


> With market going sideways for a while it's been slim pickings on the knife catching front however I think ASX might worth a punt. What do you reckon?



I don't know, breaking 28-30 looks pretty ordinary. Could be a knife catch and quick sell, but that opportunity might have already gone. Decent support after a breakdown here looks to be around $20 ish.


----------



## CamKawa (21 January 2009)

...and DJS? It's had a fairly strong intraday rally. Is that good or an opportunity missed?


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2009)

CamKawa said:


> ...and DJS? It's had a fairly strong intraday rally. Is that good or an opportunity missed?



Interesting. $2.00-2.50 ish looks like some decent support. 

Unfortunately, support has just been a speed bump the past year.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (27 January 2009)

I took a small position in LEI today according to my strategy which is not revealed in my comments here. I may be out tomorrow but who knows. 

*This is not advice and do your own research. Learn your own method for trading.*


----------



## MRC & Co (27 January 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> I took a small position in LEI today according to my strategy which is not revealed in my comments here. I may be out tomorrow but who knows.
> 
> *This is not advice and do your own research. Learn your own method for trading.*




So what is your strategy Snake?  I would be interested to hear.....


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 January 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> So what is your strategy Snake?  I would be interested to hear.....



Mrc sorry for the late reply,
I'm still in it and waiting for tomorrow. Basically I had a setup present itself.  Just taking advantage of conditions and some potential rises. I don't like the look of yesterday's bar to be honest.
Cheers..


----------



## MRC & Co (30 January 2009)

Ah k, but any hints on the actual setup?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (31 January 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Ah k, but any hints on the actual setup?



NO. Sorry, it will render it useless.
I am still in and I expect to be stopped out unless there is a push up from here.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (3 February 2009)

Out of that stock yesterday only to see it up a bit today.


----------



## MichaelD (7 February 2009)

Bottom Picking:
66 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 57 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 43.5%

Mine:
46 now closed trades - total closed loss 28.2%
19 open trades - 6 showing a profit, 13 showing a loss - total open loss 1.8%


-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## nomore4s (20 February 2009)

Just for abit of fun SSM x 10,000 @ 25c, will monitor closely though.

Looks like a bit of an over reaction but who knows. Massive volume yesterday and already nearly 3 million traded today which is very high vol for this stock


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (15 March 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Out of that stock yesterday only to see it up a bit today.



LEI seems to be holding above the bottom recently sighted.


----------



## Julia (20 March 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> LEI seems to be holding above the bottom recently sighted.



I'm still staying out of LEI. Down today.
 WOR is making a good recovery at present.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 March 2009)

Julia said:


> I'm still staying out of LEI. Down today.
> WOR is making a good recovery at present.




Please tell me about LEI.

They've always too expensive for me.

gg


----------



## Julia (21 March 2009)

Not sure what you mean by "too expensive", gg.  (currently about 60% off their high).
Aren't you investing X amount of capital?  What difference does it make how many shares it buys?


----------



## enigmatic (21 March 2009)

Havent read this thread for ages however there must be alot of sore hands by now with all these people missing the handle and getting the blade straight through the hand.

The only one that i want to catch is CSL but not to sure you could call it a falling Knife it is bouncing up and down all over the place... but it has been running down hard as of late against the trend of the market.

I could be wrong as I'm a newbie when it comes to charts but that looks like a good support/resistance line


----------



## lionfish (22 March 2009)

Hi Enigmatic. Yes. Your analysis looks spot on. I too am watching csl and had marked the same spot.


----------



## enigmatic (22 March 2009)

Good to know I'm not the only one seeing things.


----------



## jonojpsg (22 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Just for abit of fun SSM x 10,000 @ 25c, will monitor closely though.
> 
> Looks like a bit of an over reaction but who knows. Massive volume yesterday and already nearly 3 million traded today which is very high vol for this stock




Hey nomore,
Just checked this one out and looks like you made a good call on it   You out yet?


----------



## prana (22 March 2009)

caught wor at 12.5, waiting for an exit call. Missed out on lei.


----------



## nomore4s (22 March 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Hey nomore,
> Just checked this one out and looks like you made a good call on it   You out yet?




No not yet was always brought as a longer term hold, went ex d/e on Friday (hence the drop) so have 3.5c d/e in the bag and will now see what happens. Want to see some sort of basing pattern though.


----------



## Sean K (23 March 2009)

I'm adding KMN in at a bottom again, which was my one buy and sell in this thread earlier. So, Michael, please add my dirty finger pick at 6.9c!


----------



## prana (23 March 2009)

STX looks like a possible bottomer at 9.5cents. Turnaround time? Maybe short term overbought, surpassing upper Bollinger band


----------



## enigmatic (23 March 2009)

The Next one i have been looking at is WOW
Depending on the Price movement tomorrow it may be a good pick ranging from 25 to arround 27 sometimes 28 which isnt to bad a trading range for me


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2009)

Catching the MAH knife at 30c Michael.


----------



## bloomy88 (27 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Catching the MAH knife at 30c Michael.





Think i might join you there, looks oversold to me


----------



## panikhide (27 April 2009)

kennas said:


> I'm adding KMN in at a bottom again, which was my one buy and sell in this thread earlier. So, Michael, please add my dirty finger pick at 6.9c!




Kennas - are you sure? In January and December you were writing KMN off in the KMN threat as 'diabolically bad' and suggesting they were surely going to run out of money. What changed? Or do you have some money that you want to discard?


----------



## MRC & Co (27 April 2009)

Would be interested to see the stats at the moment, between the bottom pickers and the long-term system.


----------



## MichaelD (28 April 2009)

Indeed - will do them in the next few days.


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

panikhide said:


> Kennas - are you sure? In January and December you were writing KMN off in the KMN threat as 'diabolically bad' and suggesting they were surely going to run out of money. What changed? Or do you have some money that you want to discard?



KMN is still a turkey IMO, but they did a raising and got some cash to get them through this year. The reason I picked it here is as an oversold knife catch. Up about 10% so far. Look at this pretty chart.


----------



## MichaelD (28 April 2009)

Bottom Picking:
73 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 28.0%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.1%


-----


Bottom Picking:
66 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 57 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 43.5%

Mine:
46 now closed trades - total closed loss 28.2%
19 open trades - 6 showing a profit, 13 showing a loss - total open loss 1.8%


-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## So_Cynical (29 April 2009)

Lucky i had no money when i was calling my bottoms....what was i thinking. :couch

the only one i brought was MRE and its the biggest disaster in my portfolio, i don't know 
why i was so keen on Nickel at that time. :dunno:


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2009)

MichaelD said:


> Mine:
> 55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
> 19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.1%



What are you doing Michael? My 'bottom picking' is up about 25%.


----------



## MichaelD (29 April 2009)

kennas said:


> What are you doing Michael?



Trend following with what some would term aggressive use of leverage (maximum tolerated drawdown 50%).



kennas said:


> My 'bottom picking' is up about 25%.



Good for you. I don't track who picks what, but no one else seems to be bottom picking as well as you.


----------



## herbs2008 (29 April 2009)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



kennas said:


> I might start a speadsheet to capture all these picks and see how we go.
> 
> Hi Kennas
> 
> ...


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2009)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*



herbs2008 said:


> kennas said:
> 
> 
> > I might start a speadsheet to capture all these picks and see how we go.
> ...


----------



## prawn_86 (29 April 2009)

MichaelD said:


> Good for you. I don't track who picks what, but no one else seems to be bottom picking as well as you.




Young Kennas is a bit of a gun alright... Well done K


----------



## nunthewiser (29 April 2009)

INL....someone may like it


----------



## bowman (30 April 2009)

MPO might be worth a look. Some insto dumping going on.

Stochastic is in oversold and there maybe some support around the dollar mark.


----------



## bowman (1 May 2009)

bowman said:


> MPO might be worth a look. Some insto dumping going on.
> 
> Stochastic is in oversold and there maybe some support around the dollar mark.




Nice. No knife cuts with MPO.
In yesterday at 1.03 & 1.04 and out today at 1.09 & 1.10 and watching for more trades next week.

I noticed ESG and VPE are also bouncing so I'm watching MEL (not quite the falling knife) for a trade.


----------



## panikhide (1 May 2009)

kennas said:


> Catching the MAH knife at 30c Michael.




Nice catch. Nice timing. It hit 40c today on strong volume. I got in at 31.5c.


----------



## Sean K (1 May 2009)

panikhide said:


> Nice catch. Nice timing. It hit 40c today on strong volume. I got in at 31.5c.



I'll sell at 40c thanks Michael.


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2009)

kennas said:


> I'm adding KMN in at a bottom again, which was my one buy and sell in this thread earlier. So, Michael, please add my dirty finger pick at 6.9c!






panikhide said:


> Kennas - are you sure?



Michael, sell KMN at 9.5c thank you.


----------



## shag (7 May 2009)

kennas said:


> Michael, sell KMN at 9.5c thank you.




now thats pure greedy
i bet the socialists would put u on the block for that, and castro would either put u in the slammer for that or use u to invest his illgotten gains.
and the thankyou is pure rubbing salt into the wound...

i'd say aio was a knifegrab two months back. i got margin loaned out on it repeatedly when i didnt bother watching and sort it.


----------



## nunthewiser (7 May 2009)

BTA .right about..........................here .

bounce play only and personally would ignore me after my INL base pick


----------



## seasprite (8 May 2009)

SAE bottom , its been bouncing around while other oilers have followed the xjo up. Mark Nahabedian irratic selling has ceased , so I imagine he has gone.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 May 2009)

bta again ......... tight stop

nice bounce last time posted...........

all past bounces are not indicative of any future ones


----------



## nunthewiser (12 May 2009)

take note of time of last post re bta


----------



## bowman (14 May 2009)

A couple of speccies that might be worth watching for breakouts.

SHE : Basing for six months with a few recent days of higher volume.

RER: Again some recent higher volume with a big spike today. RER is in the process of acquiring Magma Oil and the rights to the O'Dowd Underground Coal to Liquid process.


----------



## bowman (14 May 2009)

Make it a threesome (just to be topical) and add IBG to that list, which also is coming off a substantial base and may be stirring to life.


----------



## Sean K (14 May 2009)

Market's looking toppy to me. Seems like a bad time to be grabbing knives and picking bottoms.


----------



## bowman (14 May 2009)

I agree the market is poised for, or in the process of, a correction (what magnitude is anyones guess).

Sometimes speccies can be immune to these corrections, particularly when they're at lows already.

I'm out of the market apart from a few speccie trades - small positions though.

There's only so much gardening a bloke can do before the trading screens beckon.


----------



## bowman (18 May 2009)

CPA looks like a likely bounce play. Average  broker target price (from FN Arena) is 0.89.

I'm also sharpening my pencils for some Swing trades, on pullbacks in uptrending stocks for this week. Might be a  new thread opportunity there if anyone is interested?


----------



## nunthewiser (18 May 2009)

bowman said:


> CPA looks like a likely bounce play. Average  broker target price (from FN Arena) is 0.89.
> 
> I'm also sharpening my pencils for some Swing trades, on pullbacks in uptrending stocks for this week. Might be a  new thread opportunity there if anyone is interested?





i hold .bought friday @ 69 . coulda got them cheaper .......... BOUNCE TRADE  only .......... WILL stop out , no room for falling in love with it

low% loss on stop out area 

dodgy knife juggler tho and got the scars to prove it


----------



## bowman (18 May 2009)

Yeah I agree it's not a keeper for now. I got some this morning at .69 too.


----------



## nunthewiser (20 May 2009)

is out of cpa 

bpt worth a look if ya like picking around bottoms


----------



## Sean K (20 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> bpt worth a look if ya like picking around bottoms



Picked that bottom. Tastey.


----------



## saiter (20 May 2009)

Is this what a bottoming stock looks like?


----------



## So_Cynical (20 May 2009)

saiter said:


> Is this what a bottoming stock looks like?




If u posted it in March it would be....up about 50% since then, pretty much the same as everything else.


----------



## weird (20 May 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> If u posted it in March it would be....up about 50% since then, pretty much the same as everything else.




How did you come to that stat ?


----------



## beamstas (20 May 2009)

weird said:


> How did you come to that stat ?




He must have one of those special calculators


----------



## weird (20 May 2009)

lol, I don't think that is average across the board, 15-20%, or less, based on indexes, is probably more right, although not sure how many trade on average based upon an overall index.


----------



## beamstas (20 May 2009)

weird said:


> lol, I don't think that is average across the board, 15-20%, or less, based on indexes, is probably more right, although not sure how many trade on average based upon an overall index.





:iagree:
Xjo Is up about 22% since the lows


----------



## So_Cynical (20 May 2009)

weird said:


> lol, I don't think that is average across the board, 15-20%, or less, based on indexes, is probably more right, although not sure how many trade on average based upon an overall index.




My blue chip and industrial's watch lists are full of stocks that have, and or still are 
up around 50%...Gold and quality midsized miners 80%+ some over 100%

Not much interested in banks and RIO - BHP - retailers and the usual suspects.


----------



## bowman (21 May 2009)

I had a couple of scalps on ELD and one on AWB yesterday and am watching for opportunities again today.


----------



## bowman (21 May 2009)

AWB

Quite an extraordinary rally today and I'm out.

I'm very curious which instos dumped yesterday but I'll have to wait 3 days before I have any buy/sell numbers.


----------



## Sean K (21 May 2009)

Would be interested to see how the bottom pickers have gone against MichaelD again..


----------



## bowman (21 May 2009)

Having one of my better days this week, but previuos days were a bit ordinary.

Had a scalp on APN as well but was too busy managing trades to give an earlier heads up.

I think tomorrow is the record day for the spp so the retail investors are lining up to buy and it looks like the instos are obliging.


----------



## So_Cynical (21 May 2009)

bowman said:


> I had a couple of scalps on ELD and one on AWB yesterday and am watching for opportunities again today.




Came very close to buying AWB today...looked hard at ELD too.

Why are we looking at the same stuff Bowman?


----------



## MichaelD (21 May 2009)

Bottom Picking:
78 open trades, 5 closed trades - 28 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed loss 18.7%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.3%


-----


Bottom Picking:
73 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 28.0%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.1%


-----


Bottom Picking:
66 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 57 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 43.5%

Mine:
46 now closed trades - total closed loss 28.2%
19 open trades - 6 showing a profit, 13 showing a loss - total open loss 1.8%


-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## bowman (25 May 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Came very close to buying AWB today...looked hard at ELD too.
> 
> Why are we looking at the same stuff Bowman?




I love an overreaction to not so good announcements  and I'm not much chop at trend following (short attention span ), so maybe we have that in common?


----------



## So_Cynical (25 May 2009)

bowman said:


> I love an overreaction to not so good announcements  and I'm not much chop at trend following (short attention span ), so maybe we have that in common?




Agreed...u buy CSL today?


----------



## bowman (26 May 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Agreed...u buy CSL today?




Missed that one, but I'm not generally watching stocks above $5 for news driven trades - too many oppportunities going on further down the food chain.


----------



## bowman (26 May 2009)

Grabbed some GMG today. Just filled an earlier gap and I'm looking for support around .22.

Back in ELD at .255 - for now the support is .25


----------



## bowman (27 May 2009)

Out of both GMG and ELD on the open.

ELD is developing a range while the instos rebalance, and looks pretty good for buying at the daily  lows.

Not sure about GMG, it could really fly for a day or two, but then again.....


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2009)

How are we going Michael?


----------



## MRC & Co (27 July 2009)

On that note, cut EQN for me please (sorry did it a while ago but forgot about this thread).


----------



## MichaelD (4 August 2009)

Bottom Picking:
77 open trades, 6 closed trades - 34 showing a profit, 49 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed loss 10.1%

Mine:
56 now closed trades - total closed loss 35.5%
19 open trades - 10 showing a profit, 9 showing a loss - total open profit 13.9%


-----


Bottom Picking:
78 open trades, 5 closed trades - 28 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed loss 18.7%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.3%


-----


Bottom Picking:
73 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 28.0%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.1%


-----


Bottom Picking:
66 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 57 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 43.5%

Mine:
46 now closed trades - total closed loss 28.2%
19 open trades - 6 showing a profit, 13 showing a loss - total open loss 1.8%


-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## MRC & Co (12 August 2009)

Cut CCP please.


----------



## Saucebottle (14 August 2009)

*Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers*

I dont agree, I looked at the All ords at 3500 and thought ****, it would be good to buy shares at the same price as 2004 in 2009, then hold for 10 years, then retire at 45.. living off divs... No day gambling


----------



## MichaelD (15 October 2009)

Bottom Picking:
76 open trades, 7 closed trades - 43 showing a profit, 40 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed profit 9.9%

Mine:
58 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.9%
19 open trades - 14 showing a profit, 5 showing a loss - total open profit 35.8%


-----


Bottom Picking:
77 open trades, 6 closed trades - 34 showing a profit, 49 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed loss 10.1%

Mine:
56 now closed trades - total closed loss 35.5%
19 open trades - 10 showing a profit, 9 showing a loss - total open profit 13.9%


-----


Bottom Picking:
78 open trades, 5 closed trades - 28 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed loss 18.7%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.3%


-----


Bottom Picking:
73 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 28.0%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.1%


-----


Bottom Picking:
66 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 57 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 43.5%

Mine:
46 now closed trades - total closed loss 28.2%
19 open trades - 6 showing a profit, 13 showing a loss - total open loss 1.8%


-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## MichaelD (9 February 2010)

Bottom Picking:
76 open trades, 7 closed trades - 40 showing a profit, 43 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed profit 3.2%

Mine:
68 now closed trades - total closed loss 18.3%
19 open trades - 8 showing a profit, 11 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


-----


Bottom Picking:
76 open trades, 7 closed trades - 43 showing a profit, 40 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed profit 9.9%

Mine:
58 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.9%
19 open trades - 14 showing a profit, 5 showing a loss - total open profit 35.8%


-----


Bottom Picking:
77 open trades, 6 closed trades - 34 showing a profit, 49 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed loss 10.1%

Mine:
56 now closed trades - total closed loss 35.5%
19 open trades - 10 showing a profit, 9 showing a loss - total open profit 13.9%


-----


Bottom Picking:
78 open trades, 5 closed trades - 28 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
Total Open/Closed loss 18.7%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.3%


-----


Bottom Picking:
73 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 53 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 28.0%

Mine:
55 now closed trades - total closed loss 34.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 8.1%


-----


Bottom Picking:
66 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 57 showing a loss
2 closed trades
Total Open/Closed loss 43.5%

Mine:
46 now closed trades - total closed loss 28.2%
19 open trades - 6 showing a profit, 13 showing a loss - total open loss 1.8%


-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (11 February 2010)

Michael D,

You can add GNS to the list if you like. I hold by the way. A couple of nice days been had.
This is not a recommendation.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 February 2010)

Stopped out on GNS. No longer holding.


----------



## moses (23 February 2010)

Anyone care to comment on BSL's chart below and confirm/deny my suspicions we have a bottom pick?


----------



## Whiskers (23 February 2010)

moses said:


> Anyone care to comment on BSL's chart below and confirm/deny my suspicions we have a bottom pick?




Long time no see moses. 

Yes, my indicators particularly on the weekly seems to confirm your suspicions.


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2010)

Whiskers said:


> Long time no see moses.
> 
> Yes, my indicators particularly on the weekly seems to confirm your suspicions.



I agreee. Very bottommish.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 October 2011)

Any picks?

gg


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 October 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Any picks?
> 
> gg




I've been long in this company for a while, but check out RED5 Limited. Over sold, valuable SP and near term producer. Decent fundamentals - debtless, surplus and pending operations. Price of Gold on the rise - profits to be made in the near term. To what extent it will rise I don't know but my target is 28c. 

DYOR


----------



## sammy84 (3 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Price of Gold on the rise.


----------



## Billyb (3 October 2011)

moses said:


> Anyone care to comment on BSL's chart below and confirm/deny my suspicions we have a bottom pick?




Perfect hindsight example of potential knife catching


----------



## LostMyShirt (4 October 2011)

sammy84 said:


> View attachment 44749




*sigh

I have never known a commodity or product or equity to rise and sustain its rise in a straight bloody line.

The POG in the short term is back on the rise from its sudden drop of 1900/oz to 1550/oz in USD.

The Long term POG is in a sustained up trend bar the profit taking.

The POG is going to remain on a higher scale so long as there is inflation, uncertainty and issue.

Your confusion is most likely based on your perception of the chart showing a slump perhaps subconsciously anticipating a massive correction?

Heh....


----------



## sammy84 (4 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> *sigh
> 
> I have never known a commodity or product or equity to rise and sustain its rise in a straight bloody line.
> 
> ...




So according to your response short term the trend is up, and long term the trend is up, just medium term is ummm...not up. I wouldn't like to be a medium term investor.

A parabolic rise followed by a parabolic drop typically signal the end of a trend for me (at least for the time being). One only needs to look to AUD/USD for another example.

P.S the long term chart of the XAO is also up bar the profit taking


----------



## LostMyShirt (4 October 2011)

sammy84 said:


> So according to your response short term the trend is up, and long term the trend is up, just medium term is ummm...not up. I wouldn't like to be a medium term investor.
> 
> A parabolic rise followed by a parabolic drop typically signal the end of a trend for me (at least for the time being). One only needs to look to AUD/USD for another example.
> 
> P.S the long term chart of the XAO is also up bar the profit taking




Gold is on a sustained up - which is a no brainer, though I thought I'd mention it.

In the medium term gold saw some consolidation when it spiked up to 1900/oz, then corrected to range 1600-1650. However; the trading range as mentioned prior has been breached by the sudden influx of buying per world economic sentiment. So long term sustained up, medium term has slumped from its peak, and short term we are on the way up. So what you are telling me is that the rise and drop has signaled hte end of the trend - what is that even supposed to mean? This is not intraday stock or futures trading, this is Gold.

Is that so hard to understand?

And yes I realize the XAO is on a long term up bar the medium term consolidation. The XAO may have very well continued to peak had 2008 not happened.      <------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2012)

BLY, GRR, IMD, GBG, APZ, ASL, MAH, LYC, EHL.... and so on.

APZ up 9% today, the others look like they have further to go.

What type of bottoms are expected and when?  Sharp V-reversals, rounded, inverted H&S, none, this week, next...?


----------



## verce (10 November 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> BLY, GRR, IMD, GBG, APZ, ASL, MAH, LYC, EHL.... and so on.
> 
> APZ up 9% today, the others look like they have further to go.
> 
> What type of bottoms are expected and when?  Sharp V-reversals, rounded, inverted H&S, none, this week, next...?




DMA - Dynasty Metals Australia

Pros: Low shares on issue, tiny market cap. Huge resource. Similarities to Brockman Mining. Top 20 hold 60%.

Cons: Declining Iron Ore Price, Questionable Management?


----------



## mr. jeff (16 April 2013)

Seems so painful and market conditions are so awful and the future is extremely bearish.
Maybe this is the day that is a strong buy signal ?? How often can you buy stocks this cheap - we haven't seen mining stocks this cheap for the last 5 years! Is this a major change in the market or the best opportunity around ? 
Too good to be true!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 April 2013)

Plenty of non-resource stocks holding their ground well.  Someone mentioned two-speed market on another thread a while back.


----------



## Sean K (16 April 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Seems so painful and market conditions are so awful and the future is extremely bearish.
> Maybe this is the day that is a strong buy signal ?? How often can you buy stocks this cheap - we haven't seen mining stocks this cheap for the last 5 years! Is this a major change in the market or the best opportunity around ?
> Too good to be true!



Some gold stocks should be heading that way if the money printing actually causes the inflation the bugs are expecting. George Soros bleeding. Faber, Schiff and Rogers must be buying about now.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 April 2013)

kennas said:


> Some gold stocks should be heading that way if the money printing actually causes the inflation the bugs are expecting. George Soros bleeding. Faber, Schiff and Rogers must be buying about now.




Is there a link you can direct me to regarding Soros' gold position?  Thanks


----------



## CanOz (16 April 2013)

Google George Soros GLD....

Lots of stuff

He recently unwound his GLD position....weeks ago.

CanOz


----------



## Sean K (16 April 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Is there a link you can direct me to regarding Soros' gold position?  Thanks






CanOz said:


> Google George Soros GLD....
> 
> Lots of stuff
> 
> ...



Sorry, meant Paulson...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 April 2013)

kennas said:


> Sorry, meant Paulson...




Found a few things Googling.  I should pay more attention to his movements, so influential is he (Soros, that is)

http://au.businessinsider.com/soros-gold-has-been-destroyed-as-a-safe-haven-2013-4


----------



## CanOz (16 April 2013)

kennas said:


> Sorry, meant Paulson...




Yeah, check the Bloomy for an article today on Paulson's GOLD position. He was in heavy at 900 apparently...

He's no genius, as someone said on another thread, he had a guy working for him that hatched the whole CDS thing that netted him billions during the GFC. He didn't even want to listen at first.

Soros, is always amazing...Gut Feel GB!

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 April 2013)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, check the Bloomy for an article today on Paulson's GOLD position. He was in heavy at 900 apparently...
> 
> He's no genius, as someone said on another thread, he had a guy working for him that hatched the whole CDS thing that netted him billions during the GFC. He didn't even want to listen at first.
> 
> ...




Soros is a great example.  His back pain must really have been acting up for him to sell so aggressively.  At least he doesn't need a physio - he just sells until the pain disappears.

Google "back pain + Soros"


----------



## CanOz (16 April 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Soros is a great example.  His back pain must really have been acting up for him to sell so aggressively.  At least he doesn't need a physio - he just sell until the pain disappears.
> 
> Google back pain + Soros




Yeah, I've either read his book, or someone mentioned it back a while ago...Think i read his first book...pre-iPad.

CanOz


----------



## So_Cynical (16 April 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Seems so painful and market conditions are so awful and the future is extremely bearish.
> Maybe this is the day that is a strong buy signal ?? How often can you buy stocks this cheap - we haven't seen mining stocks this cheap for the last 5 years! Is this a major change in the market or the best opportunity around ?
> Too good to be true!




The miners bottomed 4 > 5 months before the rest of the market in the GFC, perhaps they are leading again? the excuse in the GFC was deleveraging, maybe some big Gold and hard commodity positions are being unwound because its about to get all negative again in Europe or the US or someone actually thinks shooting will start in Korea?

As for cheap stocks...the non mining stocks were hellishly cheap 6 and 8 months ago and no one was interested.


----------



## pixel (13 November 2014)

MRM looks like a "4th attempt success" breakdown.
Quite often, we observe a pattern like this, where a support (or resistance in the other direction) is tested three times and found holding, only to be broken with gusto at the 4th attempt.




When that happens, and the move continues by a significant margin, I set an alert at twice the previous trading range or a little higher. In MRM's case, I have set one at $1.50 - not as a conditional buy order, but to take another look at it if/when it gets there.

An early description of the Bullish side can be found here: http://bartrade.biz/trades/4th.htm
Check BLD and HVN and pull up charts of the time.


----------



## orr (20 November 2014)

pixel said:


> MRM looks like ???




I'll leave the divining of the mysterious chart abortions to those with that sixth sense, with the stock floating in the low 1.60's two directors have bought close on $600k worth by todays announcement. My best wishes are with them.  In the last week I bought a little less..


----------



## Beaches (26 March 2021)

peter2 said:


> After the 1H2021 news, *NWL* fell a little more to 13.60. Price then rallied back to 16.60.
> 
> Now, after news that *NWL* wants to change it's bank for deposits, the price has fallen 13% back to 13.70.
> 
> This seems to me to be an excessive drop for this news. Perhaps another may explain why this news is bad. I see the opportunity for a rebound trade and I've risked a little to find out.




Might be time to dust this thread off.. it was always fun

NWL
@peter2 I thought the same thing and grabbed some yesterday.


----------

