# The Forex News thread



## Stormin_Norman (26 February 2008)

I thought I would start a non specific currency thread to discuss upcoming news announcements and their possible effects on the currency market.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (26 February 2008)

*Re: The News thread*

I wrote up my review of the weeks news last night after reading some analyst's opinions.

From my AussieForex blog:



> Its a pretty big week for US announcements.
> 
> * Home Sale Numbers
> * GDP
> ...


----------



## tayser (26 February 2008)

*Re: The News thread*

Next week's the big one, lots of interest rate statement announcements for scalpers to home in on after the trend has been set


----------



## Stormin_Norman (28 February 2008)

With US GDP numbers being released in an hour, the USD may trade flat until those numbers are released. 

But which way then?


----------



## Kauri (28 February 2008)

Stormin_Norman said:


> With US GDP numbers being released in an hour, the USD may trade flat until those numbers are released.
> 
> But which way then?




the big one may be BB at 1500...


----------



## Stormin_Norman (28 February 2008)

Kauri said:


> the big one may be BB at 1500...




BB?


----------



## Kauri (28 February 2008)

Stormin_Norman said:


> BB?




Big Brother....  Ben Bernanke...


----------



## Kauri (29 February 2008)

and I wonder what this is...  



> President Bush To Hold Press Call At 15:05 GMT




Jeers
.........Kauri

PS
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush will hold a news conference on Thursday at 10:05 a.m. EST, the White House said.
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Bush would ask lawmakers in the House of Representatives to pass legislation that would retroactively shield phone companies for participating in a warrantless wiretap program.
Perino said Bush would also talk about the need for funding troops in Iraq and he would urge Congress to quickly pass legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosure.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (29 February 2008)

interesting.

bush wanting more money for the war, and for homeowners.

the homeowners bit might be interesting. it might restore a bit of lending confidence back into the international market. i read last week that only 20% of treasury bills were sold.

if the US government can convince the market the losses are over (and how i dont know!) then the USD should rally.

more government spending securing iraqi oil will put long term downward pressure on the dollar; but its the moral hazard question about home-owners that might be the big one.

i might go shortterm bullish for the USD on that perhaps? what do u think?


----------



## Kauri (29 February 2008)

Stormin_Norman said:


> interesting.
> 
> bush wanting more money for the war, and for homeowners.
> 
> ...




 the only thing I get bullish on when Bush talks is bomb shelters..... bythe way I think Paulson will be having a word or two too tutu
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman (29 February 2008)

there needs to be a Kauri translater 

but i agree. the fedman's talk will be interesting. what's your feeling there, other then him dressing as a ballerina?

will it be more of the 'save the homeowners' stuff? is there anyway to follow his speech?


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2008)

RBA meeting tomorrow morning. Everyone is expecting a rise. Has it been fully priced in across all cross rates?


----------



## ithatheekret (3 March 2008)

Stormin_Norman said:


> there needs to be a Kauri translater
> 
> but i agree. the fedman's talk will be interesting. what's your feeling there, other then him dressing as a ballerina?
> 
> will it be more of the 'save the homeowners' stuff? is there anyway to follow his speech?





There's this thing about the growth versus yield , we see it reflected in the previous sideways action in the USD . The growth is a faith and hope thing , but the problem with the reasoning is that if the Fed get's down and ugly at 2% and the carnage in write off continues , they could be forced to go below further . Some models are very pro growth and funds are countering daily on the swaps , but there is an underlying weakness . It's showing up slowly and painfully in the countries that are pegged to the USD , they are copping it something wicked . I'll lay odds they knew it would swing from demand pull to cost push inflation and carried on regardless . Probably why they decided to ignore that side of the data way back when .

4% is sounding pretty good about now ............


----------



## Kauri (3 March 2008)

Private economists have/are losing respect for the Fed.. NABE shows only 48% support... from 72% in Aug...

 What a surprise   

Links... Augusta National...
and dj..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ajb27 (21 April 2008)

Here is a site that shows what has happened during previous news releases:

http://www.forexnewspatterns.com


----------



## Kauri (24 April 2008)

Greg Ip writing in today"s *WSJ* states that the Fed is likely to cut by 25 BPS when they meet next week, but then may be ready to take a breather. Ip also says that the Fed will also put the option of standing pat on the table due to inflation concerns. Ip goes on to say: "If it does cut rates, the Fed could signal in the statement accompanying the decision an inclination to pause and assess the impact of seven interest rates in eight months." 
    The strong bounce in the USD in the past 24 hours has a lot to do with the market anticipating the end of the Fed easing cycle. The impact of such an event would have greater impact if the market perceives that the ECB will stay on hold..... 

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri (25 April 2008)

Euro to 53's.. Skip tp 91-92's... Yen to 106ish, Gold to 850's, and I'm off to the poorhouse... maybe.. after all it's a Y day..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto< (25 April 2008)

chart based.

it's just poooooring out of the eur/usd!

This is really why I love FX trading no matter what there is always another opportunity around the corner! 

Kauri and other EW traders check out that ending diagonal!  hell of a set up!

Sorry all a tad off topic


----------



## Kauri (25 April 2008)

The dramatic plunge in JGB prices that forced a temporary trading halt has put pressure on the EUR/JPY. JGB futures have fallen over 2 points in one of the biggest one-day moves in over a decade. The sharp rise in Japanese yields is putting some pressure on the EUR/JPY..  maybe??

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri (25 April 2008)

Kauri said:


> The dramatic plunge in JGB prices that forced a temporary trading halt has put pressure on the EUR/JPY. JGB futures have fallen over 2 points in one of the biggest one-day moves in over a decade. The sharp rise in Japanese yields is putting some pressure on the EUR/JPY.. maybe??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




   The big story for Japan was the highest inflation results in 10 years which prompted a huge JGB sell-off with two Japanese banks said to be among the large sellers. The rise in JGB yields has actually seen the US-JGB spread narrow today, which _may also help cap USD/JPY ahead of 105.00_ .. Also a goodly amount of oppie defence around the 105 figure... and a block or three of Japanese exporter offers around the same level....

  Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri (25 April 2008)

Kauri said:


> The dramatic plunge in JGB prices that forced a temporary trading halt has put pressure on the EUR/JPY. JGB futures have fallen over 2 points in one of the biggest one-day moves in over a decade. The sharp rise in Japanese yields is putting some pressure on the EUR/JPY.. maybe??
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri






Kauri said:


> The big story for Japan was the highest inflation results in 10 years which prompted a huge JGB sell-off with two Japanese banks said to be among the large sellers. The rise in JGB yields has actually seen the US-JGB spread narrow today, which _may also help cap USD/JPY ahead of 105.00_ .. Also a goodly amount of oppie defence around the 105 figure... and a block or three of Japanese exporter offers around the same level....
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




   The USD/JPY is shuffling at 104.40,s with DJIA futures  firm and up 70 pts odd so far. The CPI data out of Japan has smacked the market overnight with further strong price pressures to emerge in coming months that will encourage Japan rate hike speculation and increases the risk to carry trades. Wheat prices were hiked last September for the first time in 24 years and the flour price rise is only feeding through now with the *Nikkei* reporting that millers are expected to hike prices by 10-20% this month. Kirin Beverages reports ingredients now cost 40% more and a survey by the Nikkei Shimbun this month says that 76% of major food firms are looking at price hikes. Ramen noodle prices rose last Sept for the first time in 17 years, with utility rates for July & Sept already tipped for the 4th straight quarterly rise in Japan. Milk prices and Meiji Dairies were hiked in February for the first time in 30 years and soy sauce prices are on the rise. And Japan, along with the rest of the world, suffers from higher gas prices that are hurting consumer spending.

  Cheers
............Kauri


----------

