# What will the market look like in 10 years time?



## mick2006 (16 June 2007)

Was just reading an article from the melbourne age about what stocks would be good to hold now until 2017.

I believe stocks such as :

UNI (medical supplies)
VCR (third generation artificial heart)
WPL (the price of oil is going up)
WOW (everybody has to eat)
PBL (agree with the article in regards to gambling in China)
PDN (will benefit from the consolidation of the uranium sector)

There are so many more that I could name but 6 is a good start.

Would be interested to hear peoples thoughts and what they are planning to hold longer term.

Below is a copy of the article.



> 2017? Buy now! Here are the tips for 10 years' time
> Marcus Padley
> June 16, 2007
> 
> ...


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## Sean K (16 June 2007)

FWIW here's mine:


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## chops_a_must (16 June 2007)

Surprised no-one has mentioned eco-tech/ enviro-tech type stocks, nor the blue chip biotechs in COH and CSL.

Although with the enviro-tech stocks, you know one or more might become huge, but picking that one is akin to winning the lottery.

Energy is going to become increasingly important over the next ten years, and with Kennas, I like ORG (hopefully will add them to the portfolio sometime this year), but I can also envisage a company like AOE becoming one of the most important plays in Oz and SE Asia, as they are positioning themselves to become a goliath...

Cheers.


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## Kauri (16 June 2007)

IVC... baby boomers will ensure this will be a growth industry in near-term
 PDN... like it or not we will be a nuclear powered world 
 WOW.. growth by expanding into more non-food divisions and new stores 
 PBL..... asia and casinos and/or other gaming-betting facilities.i.e Betfair in asia..


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## billhill (16 June 2007)

Agree with what has been said about energy. In particular i see gas doing very well so i like woodside and origin. The new PBL gaming spinoff i like as well. 3 casinos in macau with a growing population of wealthy gamblers. Can't really go wrong on that. Then finally i'm a big fan of companies servicing healthcare in china. When you think they've got to catch up to the western world, thats alot of money to be spent (remember 1 billion people). My favorite for this is IBA health.


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## prawn_86 (16 June 2007)

Ramsay Health - ageing population etc etc

Eden Energy (EDE) - technology that is way ahead of its time and within 10 year hopefully the market would have woken up to it. A stock to buy to hold and pass onto the grandkids imo. the have their fingers in all sorts of pies, geothermal, hydrogen fuel, coal bed methane(or something).

ANZ - kennas has already mentioned but i agree.


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## the barry (16 June 2007)

acclaim exploration - those long overdue drill results should almost be ready.


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## nizar (16 June 2007)

the barry said:


> acclaim exploration - those long overdue drill results should almost be ready.




LOL!
I kid you not when i saw your post i thought you were mention BMN! 

Well if you like high risk.high return plays, i guess they dont come much better than AEX. By 2017 they will either by 0 or $1+.


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## Smurf1976 (16 June 2007)

Energy is the area where fortunes will be made and lost over the coming years IMO. 

Don't forget that with ethanol now being a significant industry, the food price is tied directly to the oil price.

Also realise that, long term, the gas price is tied to the oil price as the industry matures, forms cartels and undergoes increasing geographic concentration.

Now realise that the oil discovery rate is (1) falling and (2) well below the rate of consumption (which is rising). 

It's hard to see how all of that wouldn't be outright bullish for oil, gas, wheat, corn, sugar etc. 

To a lesser extent it's bullish also for uranium, coal and renewable electricity sources although transport energy is where the biggest action is set to be IMO given that coal and uranium are relatively more abundant than oil and gas (a damn good reason not to be using oil or gas for electricity - cost will be another one but that will be learnt the hard way by many).

Climate change will be largely a forgotten issue once peak oil hits IMO. If it's real (and I strongly suspect it is) then in practice it's going to be a case of adaptation unless there's some truly massive shock to the system that forces China, India etc to act.

Actually, that's another point. We've seen the peak of the importance of the US as a superpower IMO. No offence intended to any Americans reading this, but I just think that other countries have massively better positioned themselves for the future than the US has and that relative decline is now inevitable.


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## constable (16 June 2007)

the barry said:


> acclaim exploration - those long overdue drill results should almost be ready.




By far and away the funniest thing i ve read on this forum..... by that stage their lease will be under water!


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## Sean K (16 June 2007)

Smurf1976 said:


> Actually, that's another point. We've seen the peak of the importance of the US as a superpower IMO. No offence intended to any Americans reading this, but I just think that other countries have massively better positioned themselves for the future than the US has and that relative decline is now inevitable.



 It seems inevitable that the Yuan will become the international currency in the future, unless near term conflict sorts it out otherwise. Not sure about 10 years, but inevitable.  (unless there's an 'international currency' developed, not related to any country, which will be the end result of globalisation)

Anyone who comes up with, or is working on, a cheap alternative energy source should be on the list, but the oil may last more than another 10 years. Unless some incredible elephant field materialises in Antarctica.


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## ormond (16 June 2007)

one stock that could be huge in 10 yrs is clean seas tuna.will there be any wild fish left by then?judgeing by my last couple of fishing trips-probaly not!


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## Smurf1976 (17 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Anyone who comes up with, or is working on, a cheap alternative energy source should be on the list, but the oil may last more than another 10 years. Unless some incredible elephant field materialises in Antarctica.



The oil doesn't need to run out. It just needs to get to a point where oil production can't be cheaply expanded to keep pace with demand growth and then you have the financial oppotunities.

As for elephant fields in Antarctica, I think the greatest casualty of a peaking in oil production will be the environment simply because we'll end up using anything and everything that works. And contrary to popular belief, conventional crude oil extraction and use isn't too bad envionmentally when compared to the tar sands, shale, coal liquefaction, industrial scale biomass and nuclear power alternatives we're likely to end up using. And of course drilling in Antarctica for the remaining light sweet crude (assuming there is some there).


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## macca (17 June 2007)

As far as oil price goes, I can't see it going below the current prices, maybe down to US$60 occasionally to test support.

I have read that at that price all the oil sands producers are a viable proposition, below that not worth the risk.

So if the price falls then the market will believe that oil sand producers will fail and we are then past peak oil, so up goes the price.


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## prawn_86 (17 June 2007)

ormond said:


> one stock that could be huge in 10 yrs is clean seas tuna.will there be any wild fish left by then?judgeing by my last couple of fishing trips-probaly not!




i am not heaps up to date with all the info, but appaerntly it puts more strain on the aquatic environment to farm fish like tuna, than it does to catch them.
this is due to the fact that the tunas bait must be caught from somewhere, and if it is alos bred, then its bait must be caught etc etc.

not saying it doesnt have potentail, there arte just a lot of things the aquaculture industry need to sort out if they are going to have real long term sustainability.


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## dubiousinfo (17 June 2007)

Maybe in 10 years BYR will have issued an announcement and be out of the trading halt.  Reminds me of JMS - great prospects, sh*t management.


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## divs4ever (25 July 2021)

mick2006 said:


> Was just reading an article from the melbourne age about what stocks would be good to hold now until 2017.
> 
> I believe stocks such as :
> 
> ...





 yes i know this is 2021 , but isn't hindsight educational   especially if you go back to the Padley's predictions  ( i am terrible at predictions )


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## basilio (26 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> yes i know this is 2021 , but isn't hindsight educational   especially if you go back to the Padley's predictions  ( i am terrible at predictions )




It is interesting to see what has been predicted and the outcomes .

Marcus Padley does  shoot off in a score of directions so inevitably some predictions will prove successful. But likewise others have fallen over badly.  I checked out most of his predictions  for the ten years from June 2007 to June 2017 as well as the current prices.
Worth noting that most of them have fallen some catastrophically.  (Who invested in Babcock and Brown ?)


*Company*​​*June 2007*​*June 2017*​*July 2021*​Worley Pasons​WOR​$31.99​$10.42​$11.25​Leighton Holdings​CIM​$40.16​$39.20​$21.03​Boart Longer​BLY​$5,397.61 !!​$9.00​31c​Downer EDI​DOW​$6.47​$6.03​$5.38​Babcock and Brown​BBB​$34​Liquidated​​ANZ​ANZ​$28.99​$23.44​$27.69​​ASX​$48.20​52.79​$77.67​AMP limited​AMP​$10.12​$5.13​$1.09​Computer Shares​CPU​$11.18​$9.79​$16.08​PBL​​Split up​​​Brambles​BXB​$11.39​$10.16​$11.62​Perpetual trustees​PPT​$78.51​$55.17​$38.40​AXA​AXA​​​​Cochlear​COH​$61​$159.54​$246.07​

There were a couple of interesting stories about Babcock and Brown.  They were  one of the hottest stocks on the ASX in 2007 - just before they crashed in a pile of debt and dodgy dealings.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/street-talk-20070816-jkt91 Babcock and Brown

https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...he-once-mighty-babcock--brown-20180406-h0yfdj

I also havn't worked out how Boart Longer managed to drop from $5397 to 30c today.  I suspect they had to  *consolidate* the shares (edit)  to enable some  actual trading. But still..











						Why the Boart Longyear (ASX:BLY) share price is rocketing 50% today
					

The Boart Longyear (ASX: BLY) share price has been one of the best performers on the ASX today, rising by more than 50%. Here's why.




					www.fool.com.au


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## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

really puts the strain on the 'buy and hold ( 'blue chips'  ) story  , without accounting for the inflation over that time

 i think you have strengthened my belief in staying vigilant over the portfolio 

 cheers 

 the BLY story brings tears to my eyes and i only held them between April 2013 to  October 2014  ( buying from 95c down to 10c )

 that 10c has been massively consolidated since  so is no comparison to the current price


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## basilio (26 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> really puts the strain on the 'buy and hold ( 'blue chips'  ) story  , without accounting for the inflation over that time
> 
> i think you have strengthened my belief in staying vigilant over the portfolio
> 
> ...



*The "Buy and Hold" story was and is total and complete BS. * Wealth promoters point to the relentless rise of Share Indexes to promise increasing returns. But these only reflect the shares going up not the ones that have fallen.

2007 was a high point in world stock markets. Irrational exuberance waxed across the board. Every promotor and spiv in town was making a  mint. 

Much like 2021 really.


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## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

i was thinking  2021   was more like 2007 with rocket engines  , 2019 at least had underlying earnings to support the narrative of infinite growth .

 this was one reason i use index funds as insurance  against MY bad share selection  NOT a major part of the portfolio   , i  tried those 'inverse index ETFs with some success (  but not the last parcel of BBUS  )  but discovered the weakness of holding them longer term 

 sure i will look seriously at passive ETFs again once the market has crashed  , but currently i would rather cautiously cherry-pick LICs and REITs 

 cheers


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## Wedgy (6 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> really puts the strain on the 'buy and hold ( 'blue chips'  ) story  , without accounting for the inflation over that time
> 
> i think you have strengthened my belief in staying vigilant over the portfolio
> 
> ...



I am in the buy and hold camp, as about 80% of my portfolio is in high dividend yield blue chips, most doing well (best are NAB and AX1 up over 100% on purchase price) but one (AGL) I should of got rid of.


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## JohnDe (11 January 2022)

A very interesting read, thank you.

What about the next 10 years?

Artificial Intelligence will be used by everyone in one type of device or another.
EVs will be the dominant form of private transport, with a diminished number of automotive manufacturers due to either amalgamation or bankruptcy.
Robotics will be coming of age, used in man more industries and including stocking and transport.
We will see 'next-generation commercial space technologies' being used regularly.

Now the hardest part, picking the companies involved in those sectors.


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## divs4ever (11 January 2022)

JohnDe said:


> A very interesting read, thank you.
> 
> What about the next 10 years?
> 
> ...



 the hard part will be trying to calculate who is left working ... that workforce consumption  is a economic force in itself  ( what if there is  no more lunch wagons [pies and drinks to blue-collar work-sites ] , a reduced need for workwear  , etc etc )

 and to make it worse BIG companies are slow to adapt  , so growth will be limited


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