# AED - AED Oil



## lewstherin (11 May 2006)

Hi folks

I'm new around here, and new to trading stocks for real.  For the last year or so I've been playing the JSE (when I was over in South Africa), and more recently the ASX using a virtual portfolio.
Anyhow I've decided to make the jump into real shares and I'm learning pretty fast.  This forum is awesome btw.

Anyhow I've done a lot of research into AED and I have to say the fundamentals for this company look pretty good in a $60+ oil environment.

On the conservative side, this company holds a definite (P90) 10.7 mil barrels in proven reserves in the Timor sea.  They have progressively been upgrading estimates for the past year of exploration and should begin oil production from their first well in the next quarter. On top of this it looks like there is a good upside for increased reserves through exploration in this field.
At present reserves, they will be a producer from late 2006 - late 2008.  Obviously if they find more oil...well...

They have also got full financing from Wespac and have hedged around 5% of their 2007 production at $70 per barrel (a decent hedging price imo).

Heres my math on what their reserves are worth.  I'd love to know whether I'm on the right track with this or not from the oil experts around!

Current shares issued:
109 million

Conservative reserves:
10 mil barrels @ $20 profit per barrel ($60-65 oil price range) = $200 mil
Approx. share value: around $1.80

Optimistic reserves:
14 mil barrels @ $20 profit per barrel = $280 mil
Approx share value: around $2.50


For the last few days AED has been trading significantly up, today it broke its altime high of $1.20.  I bought in at 1.145 yesterday, but in a moment of madness sold at $1.19 (really dumb in hindsight, but hey I'm still learning to control emotions!).

Having run the numbers a few times, I'm convinced the share is worth at least $1.50 - of course my calculations could be horribly wrong!

I have taken a position at $1.23.  It's been volatile today and may even fall a bit...but I think it could easily hit $1.50 when the first production starts in a few months...

Any thoughts from the masters?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (11 May 2006)

This is a great story, has huge reserves of oil and like Lew said current oil environment should see EV of $20 - $25 per barrel minimum,


Only reason I haven't jumped on board is that there is alot of technical risk within the oil reservoirs, ie fault and seal risk/compartment seal risk etc etc,

So until these are clarified it remains a spec for me,

I must reiterate that it looks like a great medium term (6 month) stock and stands to be re-rated when they release new estimates and report


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## lewstherin (11 May 2006)

Yeah production testing results for their first well are due in the next few weeks.
If the results are positive, I think $1.50 is makeable.

Of course the stock has now dropped to around $1.21...profit taking methinks.  
I am tempted to buy in again tomorrow if it drops below $1.20.  To me though it looks like 1.19/1.20 will be a new support level based on buyer depth- the graphers may disagree...

Medium term I'm hoping to be smiling on this one.

Just a few other things that have me feeling really positive on AED:
- the licensing for production has been granted
- exploration on a new well earlier this year came up with around 8 metres of oil.  AED's reserve position is being re-evaluated with official findings to be published later this year.
- the FPOS for production has been secured and will be available early 2007
- the oil field is in Australian waters so low political risk
- AED is 100% owner
- Low hedging at present
- Management are pros
- Interests held by Credit Suisse directly (5% shareholder) and Wespac indirectly through loans


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## lewstherin (12 May 2006)

AED is off to a good start today, up 8.23% on news that their first production well is nearing completion.  No mention of any technical problems, which is good.
They have hedged some more of their 2007 production at $72/barrel - which I think is a fair rate to get.

Damn I wish I had stayed in at 1.145 instead of selling and getting back at 1.23!


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## laurie (12 May 2006)

lewstherin said:
			
		

> AED is off to a good start today, up 8.23% on news that their first production well is nearing completion.  No mention of any technical problems, which is good.
> They have hedged some more of their 2007 production at $72/barrel - which I think is a fair rate to get.
> 
> Damn I wish I had stayed in at 1.145 instead of selling and getting back at 1.23!




Yep this type of stock will do that to you,to me it's a long term hold the small gain trading IMHO is not worth it as you found out my hope is to receive income from dividends

cheers laurie


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## lewstherin (26 May 2006)

After bouncing around the low $1.30s, AED is having a breakout today.  Its dashed through the previous ceiling of 1.40 and is pushing 1.50 at the moment.  This movement has happened without much fundamental changes - no news in the past week or two and oil hasn't spiked that much.  
I'll be happy if this move results in a new support level around 1.40.

AED should be announcing production dates for their first well pretty soon, so maybe the punters have discovered that this stock is a little undervalued...
I'm in since $1.23 and plan to stay in for a while given the potential for further reserve increases, and of course the cashflow from production.


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## laurie (26 May 2006)

Took a while for people to wake up to this stock been on since .55c and I thought that was expensive! market depth show sellers are thining out   may have to top up monday brokers are now on to this   yet look at OEX price and what has it got to show for itself SFA 

cheers laurie


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## imajica (2 August 2006)

just got in this morning at $1.85

might seem a bit expensive, however they have just improved flow rates to 15000-20000 bopd (thats nearly 2 million in revenue per day) - 500-700 million in revenue per year

a spec oil producer that is actually producing - its a nice change

should see a nice dividend next year


also their continued exploration is highly likely to add considerably to reserves. 

have a read of their quarterly report


HIGHLIGHTS
Evaluation of Puffin-7
As foreshadowed in the March 2006 quarterly report, the June quarter has seen the Company progress to an exciting stage of the development of the Puffin Field.
Based on the drilling and subsequent evaluation of the Puffin-7 well, *it appears that Puffin-7 reserves are likely to increase and production flow rates are likely to be between 18,000 to 20,000 bopd. Assays from Puffin-7 have confirmed that the crude oil is of a premium quality and is consistent with Tapis grade crudes.
Following the drilling and flow testing of Puffin-7 the Company is now focused on the evaluation of recent drilling results within the context of the Puffin Field as a whole. As part of this process, the Company is:
• progressing with a study of previous drilling results from the field in order to correlate that information with the recent results from the Puffin-7 development well and the Puffin-9
exploration well;
• remapping the field based on actual drilling results and previous seismic dataset;
• undertaking geoscience and engineering studies including a geochemical analysis to
establish oil source and migration paths within the field; and
• undertaking the reprocessing a 400 square kilometer section of the seismic dataset over
the Puffin Field.
Work in all these areas is significantly advanced and the Company expects to announce a revised reserves statement in the near future.

Initial results from the work have been very encouraging and indicate that the EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) in all categories (P90, P50 and P10) of the Puffin-7 field are likely to significantly increase.

Based on pressure data and mapping interpretations, there are also now indications that Puffin-2 and Puffin-9 may be part of the same oil bearing structure, linking the UK1a sand reservoirs.
{KB's comment - this is massive as they are K's apart!!!}

New target
A new exploration target (the Woodlea Prospect) has also been identified in the region of Puffin-9.

Schedule
The Company has been able to take advantage of the current high oil prices by locking in its initial hedging program. The present market presents a number of challenges in terms of procurement and project implementation but the Company has faced these challenges with considerable success and is forging ahead toward a first oil date scheduled for the first quarter of 2007.

Summary of quarter highlights
In summary, the highlights of the June quarter are as follows.
Drilling and project development
• Completing the drilling programmes for the Puffin-7 and Puffin-9 wells.
• Flow testing the Puffin-7 well and confirming well performance.
• Confirming the previous EUR at the Puffin-7 reservoir with significant upside potential.
• Receiving Puffin-7 oil assay results confirming Tapis quality crude oil.
• Commencing the reprocessing of 3D seismic data for the Puffin Field and adjacent areas.
• Commencing a structural and geochemical review of all historic Puffin Field geoscience data.
• Progressing the conversion of the FPSO.
Exploration
• Commencing the evaluation and investigation of oil sourcing and migration for exploration
targets.
• Linking of Puffin-2 and Puffin-9 UK1a sands interpreted and investigated based on various
geological models.
• Investigating the new exploration target identified in region of Puffin-9.
• Investigating the extent of the Puffin-9 LK1a reservoir.
• Reinterpreting Puffin-3 and Puffin-4 drilling results based on geochemical and structural
information to determine the size of a possible accumulation to the north east of the Puffin-7
reservoir.
Project Financing
• There has been a drawdown of USD35 million with a remaining USD19 million draw down
available. Cash on hand is AUD13.7 million.
• Capital budgets are on track.
• The Company has hedged 1.2 million barrels at an average of over USD70 per barrel.*


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## pussycat2005 (2 August 2006)

so if they have the potential to earn 500 - 700 million pa 
and they are capitalised at 109 million
wouldn't an indicative sp be 5.50 

today they closed at 1.89

the person who started this thread was on the money! 

looks interesting 

but oil prices are falling


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## doctorj (2 August 2006)

Oil prices falling is only a temporary case.  The trend for long term oil prices will be up as more demand comes online from China/India and supply falls as the large Saudi fields start pumping water.

Just wanted to make a point about AED.  Puffin 7 (phase 1) won't come online until 2007 when they EXPECT to produce 15-20k bbls/day.

Being offshore, AED is likely to net more like AUD$20 per barrel.  Producing 15k barrels per day gives earnings of $109.5 mill.

That's not to say they aren't undervalued, but I disagree with the extent to which you're suggesting.


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## Halba (2 August 2006)

Looks very speculative indeed. I doubt their forecasts and timing of development greatly


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## imajica (3 August 2006)

In terms of initial revenue valuation - I think we are all forgetting that AED are hedged for the first 1.2 million  barrels at a minimum price of $70 ber barrel

couple that with a revised resource estimate (which has been stated as being significant) across a number of wells and I think we have a winner here.

I'm not saying that it will hit $5 right away - but I can seeing it hit $3 by christmas.


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## imajica (3 August 2006)

already 1.96 on the bid - might break $2 today


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## doctorj (3 August 2006)

What I'm saying is they may receive $70 per barrel,  but after costs, they'll net closer to $20.

Oil and gas is an expensive game, especially when you hope to pump oil out of the ground offshore.


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## imajica (3 August 2006)

$2.00 on the bid in pre-open - looking very bullish at the moment

I think people are realising the fact that when the company suggests that they will be increasing reserves 'significantly' (as stated in their report) they actually mean it!


interesting quote:

Based on pressure data and mapping interpretations, there are also now indications that Puffin-2 and Puffin-9 may be part of the same oil bearing structure, linking the UK1a sand reservoirs

this is very promising as these two wells are kms apart - this could seriously be huge!


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## imajica (8 August 2006)

up nearly  30% in the last week - very bullish at the moment

half a million shares on the bid at 2.15

looks as it is being snapped up by the instos


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## michael_selway (8 August 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> up nearly  30% in the last week - very bullish at the moment
> 
> half a million shares on the bid at 2.15
> 
> looks as it is being snapped up by the instos




hey look at 2008 EPS forecast, how coem its so big!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -0.8 -7.2 0.8 363.4 
DPS -- 0.0 10.0 50.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 -7.2 -- -- 
Year Ending 30-06-07 0.8 267.5 -- 

thx

MS


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## maffu (5 September 2006)

AED opened at $2.490 today, and at 11:41am announced that their oil fields had increased. I happened to be on the ASX website at the time when the announcement was made, and immediatly decided to pump all my money into this for a quick trade.

I logged onto Comsec saw the Market Depth and put in an 'At Market' trade request, however Comsec said that AED was under a trading halt and that i could only trade at Limit orders. This scared me, i looked on the ASX under recent company announcements and could not see any announcements saying AED was under a Trading Halt...
So i tried again and i almost put in an At Limit $2.56 buy order as two people were selling for that price. However i got scared that i may not be able to sell easily if the shares were halted.

Checking the price 20 mins later it had shot up over $3.00 and eventually reached a high of $3.420 on what looks to be a record volume.

So this has me very confused and angry! I missed out on a 30% price increase because I was scared of comsec telling me trading was halted.
Could someone please explain to me why it was saying it was Halted if it clearly wasnt? There is something that happened that i dont understand and id like to know what happened to prevent this in the future.

Thanks.


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## NettAssets (5 September 2006)

A trading halt can last from a couple of seconds to days.

It seems regular practice (if not normal) for there to be a short halt while an announcement is posted. 
It seems like you got caught out by one of these.

I've got to have another search of the ASX site because although Ive noticed it happening I dont know what the reason is.


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## michael_selway (5 September 2006)

NettAssets said:
			
		

> A trading halt can last from a couple of seconds to days.
> 
> It seems regular practice (if not normal) for there to be a short halt while an announcement is posted.
> It seems like you got caught out by one of these.
> ...




Man this stock has done very well in the past year.

thx

MS


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## NettAssets (5 September 2006)

maffu said:
			
		

> I logged onto Comsec saw the Market Depth and put in an 'At Market' trade request, however Comsec said that AED was under a trading halt and that i could only trade at Limit orders. This scared me, i looked on the ASX under recent company announcements and could not see any announcements saying AED was under a Trading Halt...




Hi Maffu

This is part of the answer from ASX.
*Trading halts*


Other factors 
The basics of the share market - Basis of quotation
Takeovers schemes
*Trading halts*

Trading halts are periods during which no trading takes place for a security however, you may place orders during this time.

*Market sensitive announcements*

ASX may temporarily place a trading halt on a security following a company announcement. This occurs whenever the announcement contains market sensitive information that is considered likely to affect the price of a security. The trading halt applies to all securities on issue for the company, including warrants, preference shares, company options etc.

In most cases, the trading halt lasts for 10 minutes. During this time, new orders may be entered and existing orders may be amended or cancelled.

A single line summary of the announcement is broadcast via SEATS. The full announcement is available from ASX in electronic form and through information vendors that provide this service.

Regards
John


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## NettAssets (5 September 2006)

I guess the answer is you have to sit there with the finger on the trigger until the pre-open sign drops out.

It does not sound like there is any straight guidelines
"MAY temporarily place a trading halt"
"In most cases lasts for 10 minutes"

need that seats connection so we get the running comentary.
John


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## maffu (5 September 2006)

NettAssets said:
			
		

> A trading halt can last from a couple of seconds to days.
> 
> It seems regular practice (if not normal) for there to be a short halt while an announcement is posted.
> It seems like you got caught out by one of these.
> ...




Thanks for that, i was trying to buy less then a minute after the announcement so that is probally what triggered the halt and now ive learnt a valuable lesson for the future when trading soon after an announcement.

I dont think ill buy the stock now as ive definatly missed the ride. Price dropp about 5-10% in the last hour of todays trading.


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## pussycat2005 (13 September 2006)

This stock has been a winner... 

Earlier predictions of $3.00 by Christmas are history

It could be $6 - $8.00 by then, providing oil price recovers....


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## Ken (11 October 2006)

seems to pivoting on 3.48

with oil prices dropping significantly seems to be a good sign it has held close to it all time high.


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## chops_a_must (1 November 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> hey look at 2008 EPS forecast, how coem its so big!
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...




Where did you find that data?

But that Puffin field looks pretty impressive and it seems to keep getting bigger.


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## chops_a_must (22 November 2006)

The Puffin oil reserves have been increased by a third. Interesting...


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## Ken (22 November 2006)

Will the majority of oil stocks suffer whilst oil is around $60 a barrel?


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## chops_a_must (22 November 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> Will the majority of oil stocks suffer whilst oil is around $60 a barrel?



Did they suffer when it was at $30? I'd say the oil stocks at the moment are priced for $60 a barrel.


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## Ken (7 December 2006)

AED are on again.

up 13% over 4 bucks....


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## YOUNG_TRADER (7 December 2006)

Hmmm interesting,

Break out to all time highs

Probably should post as a breakout


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## Out Too Soon (7 December 2006)

& no ann    is it poo that's driving the sp up?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (7 December 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> & no ann    is it poo that's driving the sp up?





Poo??????


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## Ken (7 December 2006)

Could be the analyst who have been out to the site realising its real value.

Price of oil is also up i guess but not 13%.


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## laurie (7 December 2006)

leaking tap   

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (7 December 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Poo??????



Price of Oil, LOL, Poo: :fan


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## chops_a_must (7 December 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> & no ann    is it poo that's driving the sp up?



No, I think posted earlier in this thread about production possibly starting in January, so watch out for buying in December... if I remember correctly. I'm pretty sure that's what it is. And anyway, they are hedged at $70US per barrel. Nice going.


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## Ken (7 December 2006)

I spoke to a mate who works at UBS.

They get recommendations from other brokers, this one came up with a target price ridiculously higher than it is now. 

I am not going to state the price because I dont want people to buy on my advice.  But if you had the balls it could be worth it.

I dont have the balls to jump on this one as I jumped on NXS already.


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## Sean K (7 December 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Hmmm interesting,
> 
> Break out to all time highs
> 
> Probably should post as a breakout



Definate breakout. Probably outstanding! 

Any other companies likely to share in the spoils from a Puffin upgrade?


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## laurie (7 December 2006)

speeding ticket issued   and Coogee resources pulled the IPO at the last minute

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (7 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Any other companies likely to share in the spoils from a Puffin upgrade?



It is the Puffin upgrade. See post #27. Strange, at the time, the SP went down after that announcement.


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## catihouse (8 December 2006)

_"Any other companies likely to share in the spoils from a Puffin upgrade?"_

Yes

NWE has an overriding royalty of 1.25% of the production. This has been estimated to be worth some $33m + to NWE. Go to NWE announcements. Market cap of NWE is approx $20m only, plus they already have $6-7m in cash, plus other prospects and income. Worth a look.


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## Sean K (8 December 2006)

catihouse said:
			
		

> _"Any other companies likely to share in the spoils from a Puffin upgrade?"_
> 
> Yes
> 
> NWE has an overriding royalty of 1.25% of the production. This has been estimated to be worth some $33m + to NWE. Go to NWE announcements. Market cap of NWE is approx $20m only, plus they already have $6-7m in cash, plus other prospects and income. Worth a look.



It has a market cap of $20m and they are making $33m a year from royalties?


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## catihouse (8 December 2006)

$33m total in royalties on reserves disclosed so far by AED.
Royalties spread over about 5 years, with about 85% due in next 3 years.
Also get royalties from another project of approx $1m pa, plus good prospects in  UK gas play (Bounder), if NWE get their act together. Announcements due soon on this.

Current share price is approx 50% of nta.


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## Ken (8 December 2006)

so nwe looks like a buy then at this price.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> speeding ticket issued   and Coogee resources pulled the IPO at the last minute
> 
> cheers laurie





Sorry guys, don't know too much about Coogee but whats the Link between AED and Coogee?

Also do people think that yesterdays price action was to do with Coogee IPO being pulled?

Can someone join the dots for me please


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## Sean K (8 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> so nwe looks like a buy then at this price.



You would have to think so wouldn't you Ken. Might have to have a closer look.


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## Ken (8 December 2006)

spoke to the guy at UBS again today.

AED is being highly recommended to there clients even at prices we see now.

still cant bring myself to get on em...


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 December 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Sorry guys, don't know too much about Coogee but whats the Link between AED and Coogee?
> 
> Also do people think that yesterdays price action was to do with Coogee IPO being pulled?
> 
> Can someone join the dots for me please





Still confused re Coogee and AED link, can someone fill me in, I just can't be bothered doing anymore research till Monday


Also what makes you guys think its Puffin Reserves?

I'd be a happy chappy cause I like NWE!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (11 December 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Still confused re Coogee and AED link, can someone fill me in, I just can't be bothered doing anymore research till Monday
> 
> 
> Also what makes you guys think its Puffin Reserves?
> ...





Running up again, nobody has explained the AED/COOGEE link yet,

Ken what sort of a price target have they set on AED?

And is it something to do with Coogee resources or Puffin Reserves as Chops a must reckons?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (11 December 2006)

Ok did the research myself, (Thanks guys really helpful!)


Turns out Coogee Resources permits are adjacent to AED,

Coogee Resources was gonna be a huge $600m+ Book build type float, they were listing with Assets of about $300m Cash and 40mmbls Oil

I'm pure speculating here but maybe they're running the ruler over AED and hence didn't bother with float as they could do an T/O to faciliate lisitng, probably wayy off, but its a thought


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## YOUNG_TRADER (11 December 2006)

Broke out to another all tiem high of $4.20, currently at $4.17


I really hope this is to do with Puffin because I don't have any AED, just NWE which gets Royalty from Puffin


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## Sean K (11 December 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Broke out to another all tiem high of $4.20, currently at $4.17
> 
> I really hope this is to do with Puffin because I don't have any AED, just NWE which gets Royalty from Puffin



Yeah I've taken some NWE just in case. Cheers.


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## laurie (12 December 2006)

High of $4.27 something is making it attractive to investors..... what !!

cheers laurie


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## YOUNG_TRADER (12 December 2006)

It just keeps going up   

It can't be to do with Puffin otherwise NWE would be rising too, which its not, it might be that Coogee Resources thing, takeover/merger something lik that

Thoughts?


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## Ken (12 December 2006)

It is because there have been reports floating around the investment companies such as UBS with target prices of $12-14 in 12 months time.

Not saying its going to get there. 

But that is what landed on a friends desk who works for UBS.

I do not hold.


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## chops_a_must (20 December 2006)

Go you good thing!


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## michael_selway (20 December 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Go you good thing!




Numbers look good

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 -7.2 -- -- 
Year Ending 30-06-08 268.6 1.6 -- 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -4.2 -7.2 268.6 108.6 
DPS 0.0 0.0 25.0 5.0 

thx

MS


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## laurie (20 December 2006)

If the poo was over $70 this now would be over $5 heading towards $6   

cheers laurie


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## YOUNG_TRADER (20 December 2006)

I just realised AED has Approx 220m shares on issue fully diluted including 20c unlisted options etc


*At the closing price of $4.58 AED had a Mkt Cap of $1Billion * 

Thats amazing AED has joined the Billion Dollar+ Club!


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## laurie (20 December 2006)

Are you sure   I thought they had approx 74m shares on issue and that will make it $339million   

cheers laurie


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## olive_tree (21 December 2006)

AED have 67.8m listed shares, 44.2m unlisted shares and 37.4m options, a total of 149.4m.


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## bigdog (21 December 2006)

AED SP has been a mover this month

Todays volume has been VG and currently 367000 shares
-- understand that next ANN is not far away per the wife's hairdresser today!

I hold

Code Last Move % Move Buy -Sell Open High Low Volume Value last traded 
AED  4.58 0.000  0.00%  4.58 4.59 4.65 4.67 4.57 367,988 1,701,086 21-Dec 01:32:25 PM 


Date --------Open --High --Low ---Close -Volume 
20-Dec-2006 4.4000 4.6800 4.4000 4.5800 530,038 
19-Dec-2006 4.3600 4.4000 4.3300 4.4000 130,551 
18-Dec-2006 4.3800 4.4000 4.2900 4.3600 215,945 
15-Dec-2006 4.3600 4.4300 4.3200 4.3800 740,949 
14-Dec-2006 4.2000 4.3300 4.2000 4.2900 451,250 
13-Dec-2006 4.1500 4.2300 4.1000 4.2000 615,219 
12-Dec-2006 4.1500 4.2700 4.1400 4.1900 859,216 
11-Dec-2006 3.9100 4.2000 3.9100 4.1700 821,589 
08-Dec-2006 3.9000 3.9500 3.8000 3.9000 395,676 
07-Dec-2006 3.6500 4.0900 3.6500 3.9200 1,555,237 
06-Dec-2006 3.5500 3.6600 3.5200 3.6000 892,075 
05-Dec-2006 3.4000 3.5600 3.3900 3.5000 744,796 
04-Dec-2006 3.3500 3.4000 3.3400 3.3800 253,266 
01-Dec-2006 3.3900 3.3900 3.3500 3.3700 183,357


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## YOUNG_TRADER (21 December 2006)

Not sure where you guys get your info from but Im going off their last Appendix 3B Dated 14th Nov,

*
AED have 67.8m listed shares 112m unlisted shares and 37.4 unlisted 20c opies so 217.2m shares in total, or 220m Approx*

_Number and +class of all +securities quoted on ASX (including the securities in clause 2 if applicable)
67,797,983 Ord

Number and +class of all +securities not quoted on ASX (including the securities in clause 2 if applicable)
112,068,853
37,407,902
Ordinary fully paid shares.
Options to acquire fully paid ordinary shares exercisable at $0.20 on or before 14 October 2007._


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## olive_tree (21 December 2006)

Unfortunately AED complete their Appendix 3B forms incorrectly.  You will find that the 112m unlisted shares is in fact the total of the listed and unlisted shares.  Have a look at the last financial statements and subsequent Appendix 3B forms and you'll see what I mean.


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## bigdog (22 December 2006)

AED SP has jumped 15 cents to $4.75 in the last 10 minutes

This was my wife's hairdresser tip for the day!

There are not many sellers


----------



## Caliente (22 December 2006)

only 15 cents 

I hope the hairdresser didn't frazzle your wife for that one!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (22 December 2006)

Looks like accumulaters/pros/insiders and Instos have been soaking up the selling yesterday and today and are now getting set no matter what the cost for a possible ann
10mins to go,

How high the buys go to get filled will tell us how good the ann is, all most certain to be related to Puffin Discovery, tis the rumour at UBS


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (22 December 2006)

Same thing just happened over at NWE, has to be Puffin related


----------



## Ken (22 December 2006)

UBS still saying $12-$14. 

good luck to holders


----------



## bigdog (23 December 2006)

AED should be due to issue update based upon next steps from the last ASX ann on progress from QUARTERLY REPORT on 30 SEPTEMBER 2006 issued Oct 31 2006

Lots of things happening at AED!

NEXT STEPS
The next significant steps for the Company are as follows.
- Finalise Reserve evaluation for Puffin North East and Puffin South West.
- Finalise planning, procurement and financing for the Puffin-8 well.
- Award installation Contracts.
- Commence FPSO fabrication and upgrade.
- Delivery of all major subsea installation components.

SUMMARY OF QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
Production
• AED announces possibility of achieving higher initial oil production from additional well.

Geological
• Geological and engineering review of results from Puffin-7 and Puffin-9
o Onnia seismic survey re-processing completed.
o BHPP seismic survey data acquired.
o Preliminary geochemical studies completed indicating source and migration paths.
 Swan graben source; multiple charges and water washing.
 Biomarker and isotope studies underway.
o Increased oil in place and reserves announced.

• Planning for additional production well (Puffin-8 )
o Drilling planned for January 2007 to provide higher initial production rate at first oil.
o Engineering studies undertaken for flow assurance to optimise production capabilities including FPSO process system.
o Reservoir simulation studies to forecast production performance.
FPSO and Installation

• FPSO due to arrive at Keppel shipyard 1 November 2006.

• Installation contracts nearing finalisation for installation in early 2007.

Geological and Engineering Review
The Company is continuing to review and re-evaluate previous drilling, testing and seismic data accumulated from the Puffin field over the last 30 years in the light of the positive drilling and testing results of the Puffin-7 and Puffin-9 wells.

This review includes the integration of seismic data with the geological model of the source and distribution of oil. Part of this work has comprised the reprocessing of the Onnia 3D seismic dataset. The re-processing, undertaken by Petroleum Geo-Services Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (PGS), was completed during the quarter. This re-processing has led to a significant improvement in the quality of the data and the results are now being incorporated into new mapping of the Puffin field by integrating the re-processed data with the complementary dataset recently acquired from BHPP.

The Company is progressing towards the development of a revised reserves statement. To achieve this, the Company is working to incorporate:
• drilling data obtained since 1972;
• PSDM data originally utilised by the Company;
• The reprocessed seismic data referred to above;
• the newly acquired BHPP data set; and
• reservoir simulation.AED Oil Limited (AED or Company) is pleased to present its September 2006 Quarterly Report.

I hold


----------



## michael_selway (23 December 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Looks like accumulaters/pros/insiders and Instos have been soaking up the selling yesterday and today and are now getting set no matter what the cost for a possible ann
> 10mins to go,
> 
> How high the buys go to get filled will tell us how good the ann is, all most certain to be related to Puffin Discovery, tis the rumour at UBS





Hi YT, does AED have a short mine life?

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 -7.2 -- -- 
Year Ending 30-06-08 268.6 1.8 -- 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -4.2 -7.2 268.6 108.6 
DPS 0.0 0.0 25.0 5.0 

thx

MS


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (27 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> UBS still saying $12-$14.
> 
> good luck to holders





I heard something like that, sounds unbelieveable doesn't it, but then it would explain the volumes of late and unstoppable buying,

It may hit $5 today,

What I'm interested to see, is that if this Puffin Discovery (whatever it is) is worth $12-$14 to AED, how much value will it add to NWE?

Any chance you could get your hands on the AED report Ken?

Cheers


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (28 December 2006)

AED has just cracked the $5 mark!

With 150m shares on issue (thanks Olive tree for pointing out AED's stupidity in completing forms) it has a mkt cap of *$750m*


----------



## bigdog (28 December 2006)

AED is my tip for the January ASF stock tipping competition

AED SP looks like Puffin upwards and upwards

Lots of things happening at AED!

From QUARTERLY REPORT on 30 SEPTEMBER 2006 issued Oct 31 2006:
NEXT STEPS
The next significant steps for the Company are as follows.
- Finalise Reserve evaluation for Puffin North East and Puffin South West.
- Finalise planning, procurement and financing for the Puffin-8 well.

Production
• AED announces possibility of achieving higher initial oil production from additional well.

The Company is progressing towards the development of a revised reserves statement. 

I hold


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 December 2006)

Intersuisse Report


http://www.intersuisse.com.au/upload/Companies/AED18Dec06.pdf

See the bottom where they talk about fully diluted mkt cap, they use my figure of 217m shares fully dilluted   

Very Confused as to shares on issue


----------



## laurie (29 December 2006)

YT

You must be blind mate   have a look at the rhs summary it says 67million   

cheers laurie


----------



## champ2003 (29 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> YT
> 
> You must be blind mate   have a look at the rhs summary it says 67million
> 
> cheers laurie




Actually YT is right. It's right down the bottom. It looks a little contradictory.


----------



## laurie (29 December 2006)

yeah I know its at the bottom BUT its also on the RHS with a different figure!

cheers laurie


----------



## olive_tree (30 December 2006)

I think Intersuisse have looked at the Appendix 3B which I believe is incorrectly completed.  Looking at the latest financial statements and the subsequent Appendix 3Bs I believe the correct situation is AED have 67.8m listed shares, 44.2m unlisted shares and 37.4m options.


----------



## laurie (18 January 2007)

Considering the price of oil is falling this stock is holding up well at $4.68 any news on upgrade of reserves can only strengthen the sp tightly held also   

cheers laurie


----------



## bigdog (31 January 2007)

We can expect the ASX second quarter announcements today perhaps after 4:00 PM based upon the prior practice by AED.

First Quarter Activities Report AED 31/10/2006 16:10      
First Quarter Cashflow Report AED 31/10/2006 16:04    

Fourth Quarter Activities Report AED 31/07/2006 17:07     
Fourth Quarter Cashflow Report AED 31/07/2006 16:43      

Third Quarter Activities Report AED 28/04/2006 12:12    
Third Quarter Cashflow Report AED 28/04/2006 12:12


----------



## bigdog (31 January 2007)

ASX anns today

There was no Second Quarter Activities Report advised to ASX today
-- has always issued same day as Quarter Cashflow Report 

-- expecting update From QUARTERLY REPORT on 30 SEPTEMBER 2006 issued Oct 31 2006:
NEXT STEPS
The next significant steps for the Company are as follows.
- Finalise Reserve evaluation for Puffin North East and Puffin South West.
- Finalise planning, procurement and financing for the Puffin-8 well.

AED 5:57 PM  Second Quarter Cashflow Report 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689532

$5.3 million cash Dec 31 with second qtr expenditure of $4.9 million


----------



## bigdog (1 February 2007)

ASX ann today 
-- "could commence at approximately 30,000 BOPD (Barrels of Oil Per Day)".

AED 8:23 AM  Second Quarter Activities Report 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689680

AED Oil Limited (AED or Company) is pleased to present its December 2006 Quarterly Report.

First Oil by Mid Year 2007
AED is now rapidly progressing to the target of first oil by mid year 2007. The company is building a production team and is increasing its geological and engineering team. Important appointments include Peter Behrenbruch as Chief Operating Officer, Rick De Boer as Chief Geologist, Hollis Fitch-McNeill as FPSO Manager stationed in Singapore and Rod Foulds as Crude Marketing consultant. All major contracts for the FPSO conversion, the drilling of Puffin-8 and the installation have been let.

Drilling Puffin 8
It is anticipated that the drilling of the Puffin-8 production well in the North East 1 region of the Puffin Field will commence early in March 2007. The production well when completed will produce in tandem with Puffin-7 via a subsea manifold to the FPSO. Reservoir simulation conducted by the Company indicates that production from this combined development could commence at approximately 30,000 BOPD (Barrels of Oil Per Day). All procurement items for the well have now been finalised.

The primary objective of Puffin-8 well is the LK1a Cretaceous sand package discovered by the Puffin-1 well and subsequently drilled by Puffin-5 and most recently by AED with the Puffin-7 well.

The planned trajectory of the well is vertical until 980m True Vertical Depth from Rotary Table (TVDRT) at which point angle building will commence at 3 º/30m until an inclination of 46 º is reached (1442m Measured Depth from Rotary Table (MDRT) / 1394m TVDRT) on an azimuth of 176 °. This angle will be maintained through the Grebe and Upper Johnson formations. The well will continue on at these parameters until reaching 2152m MDRT/ 1885m TVDRT at which point angle will be increased again at 3 º/30m until 85 º is reached by 2542m MDRT / 2043m TVDRT. A string of 9-5/8” casing will then be set.

Upon exiting the casing shoe, angle building will continue at 2.5 °/30m until reaching the heel target at 89.7 º degrees. The top LK1a reservoir is prognosed at 2700m MDRT/2046m TVDRT (2021m TVDSS). Once through the heel target, drilling will continue on to the toe at the same inclination, maintaining azimuth. Final measured depth is expected to be approximately 2920m at 2047m TVDRT at the toe. The well will be completed as a horizontal producer after running sand screens.

NEXT STEPS
The next significant steps for the Company are as follows.
Reserves of Puffin South West
Resource for Puffin North East 2
Announcement of completion of Financing
Drilling of Puffin-8
FPSO conversion
Installation of subsea facilities


----------



## Out Too Soon (1 February 2007)

So, is AED undervalued or is the expected production later this year already factored into the sp.


----------



## chops_a_must (1 February 2007)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> So, is AED undervalued or is the expected production later this year already factored into the sp.



I don't think anyone really knows, given that they haven't got final figures on their reserves. On this thread, $12-$14 has been touted as a target price.


----------



## chops_a_must (5 February 2007)

Looks like AED might be preparing for one of those little runs it is so fond of. Here's hoping, but it looks good. Might be the last time you see it at this level for a while.


----------



## bigdog (13 February 2007)

ASX ann on reserves today

AED 1:29 PM  Puffin NE 2 Oil Initially in Place 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00692681

SP increased marginally yesterday and no much reaction to ann 30 minutes ago!!

Look like the reserves could be!!!:
-- Puffin North East NE2, (updip of Puffin-3) Oil Initially In Place 11-30 Mmbl
-- Any reserves attributable to Puffin NE2 will be in addition to the previously announced P50 Reserves of 40 Mmbl.

ASX Announcement
13 February 2007
Oil Resources
Puffin North East NE2, (updip of Puffin-3) Oil Initially In Place 11-30 Mmbl

As part of AED Oil Limited’s (AED) continuing assessment of the Puffin Oil Field, the Company has estimated volumes for the NE2 area of the North East region. AED has completed an interim assessment of the potential of this area, based on drilling results and the reinterpretation of two seismic surveys (one also reprocessed). The separate oil accumulation (NE2) is updip of wells Puffin-3 and Puffin-4. For reference, Puffin-3 was drilled by ARCO in 1975, with 40-42 oAPI oil in the LK1a sand (wireline samples). The well was not flow tested. Puffin-4 was drilled by BHP in 1988 and recovered a wireline sample with a trace of oil. The map below shows the location of wells as part of the Puffin horst, the location of the North East region, and also an outline of the NE1, NE2 and NE3 areas.

The NE2 accumulation is essentially an extension of the Late Cretaceous Puffin main North East (NE1) area (Puffin formation, LK1a sand), containing Puffin-5 and Puffin-7. The two areas are separated by a faulted zone and saddle, and as such show different oil-water contacts: Puffin-5 at 2034m sub sea (ss), compared to Puffin-3 at 2077m ss. Unlike the very flat, “table-top” Puffin-5 structure, the structure updip of Puffin-3 appears to show on seismic a more anticlinal feature, with a larger oil column of maximum 43m.

According to industry practice, a Monte Carlo analysis was undertaken to reflect uncertainty in parameters, incorporating a range of petrophysical and fluid parameters. The resulting Oil-Initially-In-Place (OIIP) range for the NE2 area is 11 to 30 million barrels. This OIIP range is consistent with the analysis undertaken by Alberta Energy Corporation (AEC) as incorporated in the AED AGM presentation of 22 November 2006. Recoverable oil will be determined by the application of the recovery factor in due course, estimated to fall into the range of 40-70 percent. This result indicates the attractiveness of the NE2 area, particularly with regard to its close proximity to the production facilities (FPSO). It is planned to drill this structure (initially one well) as part of the anticipated three well drilling program planned for later this year. This will be followed by the preparation and independent review of a reserve statement for this NE2 area. Any reserves attributable to Puffin NE2 will be in addition to the previously announced P50 Reserves of 40 Mmbl.

As previously advised the drilling of the production well (Puffin-8) in the Puffin NE1 area remains on track and is scheduled to spud on 16/17 February 2006


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## chops_a_must (13 February 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> ASX ann on reserves today
> 
> AED 1:29 PM  Puffin NE 2 Oil Initially in Place
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00692681
> ...



The chart has been building bullishly over the last couple of weeks. I'm thinking this news will put a rocket up the a*se of the share price tomorrow morning. A roughly 50% increase in reserves can't do anything but. What a gem of a stock.


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## alankew (13 February 2007)

Any reason that it didnt put a rocket under at time of ann or is it just a matter of time for people to realise


----------



## chops_a_must (13 February 2007)

alankew said:
			
		

> Any reason that it didnt put a rocket under at time of ann or is it just a matter of time for people to realise



Unless it is a blue chip, news takes a while to get around.


----------



## resourceboom (13 February 2007)

also take note that last time the reserves statement came out it took a while from the price of around 3.30 to start moving up to the current 4.70 odd.


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## bigdog (14 February 2007)

Looking good to start of the day +8 cents

AED   $4.85    +$0.08  +1.68%  14-Feb 10:00:40


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## chops_a_must (14 February 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> Looking good to start of the day +8 cents
> 
> AED   $4.85    +$0.08  +1.68%  14-Feb 10:00:40



Yup. Here we go again!


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## bigdog (14 February 2007)

chops_a_must - looking great!

Further ASX ann today with another key step completed and SP now up 13 cents today

AED   $4.90    +$0.13  +2.73%  14-Feb 10:31:32 

AED 10:21 AM  Funding for Puffin Project completed
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00693017


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## bigdog (15 February 2007)

Todays news based upon ASX ANN yesterday
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21226767-664,00.html

Puffin to feed on Timor oil
Mandi Zonneveldt
February 15, 2007 12:00am
OIL and gas junior AED Oil has tapped the market for $US75 million ($A96 million) as it prepares to make the jump from explorer to producer.

The Melbourne-based company is developing the Puffin project in the Timor Sea and expects to begin production in June. 

AED was targeting initial production of about 18,000 barrels of oil a day, but the money raised will fund an additional well that will boost its early output to about 30,000 barrels. 

The company took advantage of soaring oil prices last year to lock in sales of 1.2 million barrels of oil at $US71 a barrel -- near historic highs. 

The Puffin project is located in waters about 700km west of Darwin. 

The Puffin north-east field contains 40 million barrels of proved and probable oil reserves, and AED believes a nearby field could contain as much as 30 million barrels more. 

The money raised was through an issue of convertible notes. 

AED shares, which have increased more than five fold in the past 12 months, rose 22c or 4.6 per cent yesterday to $4.99


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## chops_a_must (15 February 2007)

It gapped up straight through the last resistance this morning. In blue skies now, where she stops no-one knows.


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## bigdog (15 February 2007)

chops_a_must - AED is looking greater every day!

There was an ASX ann this morning where Macquarie Equity Capital Markets Limited has exercised its option to purchase an additional  US$10 million of Unsecured Notes

AED 9:49 AM  Convertible Note Offering -Exercise of Lead Managers Option 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00693381

Convertible Note Offering – Exercise of Lead Manager’s Option
Further to the announcement made on 14 February 2007, regarding the offering by AED Oil Limited (“AED”) of US$75 million unsecured and unsubordinated Convertible Notes (the “Unsecured Notes”) due 23 February 2012, AED announces that Macquarie Equity Capital Markets Limited has exercised its option to purchase an additional US$10 million of Unsecured Notes (the “Option”).

The exercise of the Option increases the total size of the offering to US$85 million.

David Dix, chairman of AED, noted that “this is a further indication of the confidence the investor community has in the company”.
The additional funds will be used to further strengthen AED’s capital base and fund the assessment and development of the Puffin Oil Field through securing long lead items for the drilling of three wells in late 2007, the reprocessing of seismic data and for general corporate purposes.


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## bigdog (15 February 2007)

Late ASX ann today to restate oil reserves

AED 5:35 PM   NWE: Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00693685

15th February 2007
Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update
Norwest provides reference to the latest reserve upgrades in the Puffin Oilfield
issued by the AED Oil Limited (AED) in an ASX announcement dated 13th February 2007.

In the announcement, AED quotes an Oil Initially in Place (OIIP) range for the NE2 area of 11 to 30 million barrels, which when added to the previously quoted OIIP volume of 90 million barrels for the area called NE1, increases the total field OIIP volumes to a range of 101 to 120 million barrels.

Norwest has made a simple calculation based on an oil price of US$50 per barrel, a recovery factor of 44% (taken from AED’s estimate for the NE1 area), the average of the OIIP range quoted for NE2, and Norwest’s 1.25% over-riding royalty as follows:

NE1 Reserves 90 OIIP Million barrels       
      40 reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)

NE2 Reserves average (and range) 20.5 (11-30) OIIP Million barrels   
      9 (5-13) reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)


Total NE1 & NE2 Reserves 110.5 OIIP Million barrels
     49 reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)


Value of Norwest 1.25% Royalty @US$50/ barrel AU$41 million

This is an increase over the AU$33 million previously calculated for the NE1 area alone.

Norwest would encourage the reader to access the full version of AED’s ASX
release via the ASX website: www.asx.com.au. AED Oil’s code is AED.


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## chops_a_must (15 February 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> Late ASX ann today to restate oil reserves
> 
> AED 5:35 PM   NWE: Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00693685
> ...



Beats me why NWE didn't release the AED ann. yesterday. But this puts the value of the AED held reserves at well over $4 billion. That's pretty impressive, and very conservative, especially considering that is set at $50 a barrel, and AED is hedged at around $70. Mind boggling that the SP has not really moved for either NWE or AED on this. I managed to top up on NWE yesterday on a dip, because it is bound to move sooner or later. They both seem to be an obvious buy to me. Both have enormous potential and enormous reserves. Staggering that they are still at the prices they are.


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## chops_a_must (16 February 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> AED is looking greater every day!



Large retracement today. I must say, I am rather disappointed, and did expect this one to go much further.


----------



## bigdog (19 February 2007)

ASX ann after close today down 14 cents

Any guesses what will happen at 10:00 tomorrow folowing tonights Ann!

The SP did not do well today
AED   $4.85    -$0.14  -2.81%  147,233 share $718,748  19-Feb 16:10:10 

19-02-2007 05:22 PM  AED  Spudding of Puffin-8  
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00694463

ASX Announcement
19 February 2007
Spudding of Puffin-8 Puffin Oil Field AC/L6
AED Oil Limited (“AED”) is pleased to announce that the Stena Clyde drilling rig has set anchor at Puffin-8 and spudded the well at 1700 hours EST on 17 February 2007.

Puffin-8 is the second development well targeting the main Puffin North East structure (NE1). The subsea location of the well is 310m south of Puffin-7. The well is again planned as a horizontal well, reaching the reservoir (LK1a sand) at approximately 2045m TVD RT (True Vertical Depth from Rotary Table). The horizontal section would be a minimum of approximately 250m. The well is expected to reach a minimum measured depth of at least 2920m RT, with a maximum of around 3800m RT. After completing the well, a short flow test will follow to ensure well integrity. The total time for drilling and completion of the well is estimated to be 42 days, assuming no downtime for weather or other reasons, with an estimated completion date of 29 March.


----------



## chops_a_must (19 February 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> ASX ann after close today down 14 cents
> 
> Any guesses what will happen at 10:00 tomorrow folowing tonights Ann!
> 
> ...



Unfortunately, if it doesn't go through $5 with volume, it might head back to about $4.50. But today was a very very poor showing. I'm not convinced it will head north, but this is still massively undervalued. Might have to wait until first oil before we really see some action.


----------



## resourceboom (19 February 2007)

if they hit their projected 30,000 bopd this should perform very strongly


----------



## laurie (19 February 2007)

hmmm surprised me also normally a spuded well sees sp going up but it did happen on a Saturday   

cheers laurie


----------



## chops_a_must (19 February 2007)

I did hear from a client tonight, that there is big problems with one of the contracting companies working for AED. Lots of scrambling to Singapore for some reason...


----------



## chops_a_must (20 February 2007)

Another very disappointing day for AED. Where to from here?


----------



## resourceboom (20 February 2007)

not too long till first oil, patience required !!


----------



## bigdog (20 February 2007)

chops_a_must  - the market did not like todays ann on reduced oil reserves!

AED   $4.75    -$0.10  -2.06% 224,749 shares  $1,082,562  20-Feb 15:26:30 

ASX Announcement
20th February 2007
AED 2:38 PM Revision and Clarification to ASX Announcement Feb 15, 2007
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00694818

Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update
Norwest Energy has revised its calculations contained in its previous ASX
announcement dated 15th February 2007, with respect to the Puffin Oilfield Reserves update and also clarifies its assumptions.

Norwest’s release quoted Oil Initially In Place (OIIP) for the NE1 area at 90 million barrels. The actual figure as confirmed by the Operator, AED Oil Limited, for P50 OIIP is 67 million barrels. Norwest’s release quoted an expected ultimate recovery (P50) of 40 million barrels for NE1. (Refer to AED’s presentations issued 22nd November 2006 for further details.)

More recently, the Operator issued a range for the OIIP in the NE2 area of 11 to 30 million barrels. In order to establish an estimate of recoverable oil in the area, Norwest used the average of that range of 20.5 million barrels. Norwest has used a conservative recovery factor of 44% to derive potential recoverable reserves of 9 million barrels (range 5 to 13 million barrels) for the NE2.

The table of oil volumes provided in the previous announcement is repeated below in its corrected form and is based on reasonable assumptions which are yet to be confirmed.

The value of Norwest’s royalty stream using these volumes is estimated at AU $41 million. (assumptions: oil price of US$50 per barrel and exchange rate of $0.75).


----------



## resourceboom (20 February 2007)

This was NOT a reserves downgrade, just a mistake by NWE in their previous announcement !!


----------



## chops_a_must (20 February 2007)

resourceboom said:
			
		

> This was NOT a reserves downgrade, just a mistake by NWE in their previous announcement !!



Interestingly, NWE looked like it climbed strongly after that.... Weird... Maybe the market just needed some reminding.


----------



## bigdog (21 February 2007)

SP looking much better today up 25 cents

AED   $5.10    +$0.25  +5.15% 417,997 share $2,102,755  21-Feb 14:32:15


----------



## alankew (21 February 2007)

Nice rise today,would be even better if it closes above $5.Recent high of $5.14 would be even better


----------



## resourceboom (21 February 2007)

I'm looking forward to the SW reserves announcement due soon!!


----------



## chops_a_must (27 February 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I did hear from a client tonight, that there is big problems with one of the contracting companies working for AED. Lots of scrambling to Singapore for some reason...
> 
> 20/2
> Another very disappointing day for AED.



I know a lot more now. I found out that the rush to Singapore was about a problem with one of the drilling rig packages for one of the wells. I don't know how severe it is/ was. Apparently relatively minor, but still, they went for the low cost option and it backfired apparently. Means a small delay. Don't know for how long.

Would like to know if someone has dates for the proposed ann's. Bummer I don't know how significant these delays are because it seems to be a stock that needs constant news to be able to climb.

Still hold, because this is likely to fly at some stage, and I don't want to miss out.


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## bigdog (27 February 2007)

ASX ann Feb 27

No suggestions about problems!

SP steady at 5.00 since ann

AED 3:21 PM   Drilling Progress Report No 1 - Puffin-8 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00697593

Drilling Progress Report No 1- Puffin-8
During the past week drilling operations continued at Puffin-8. The operations included drilling 17-1/2” hole to 984m, setting and cementing 13-3/8” casing at 965m, drilling out cement and fresh formation and performing a successful formation integrity test to 12ppg EMW. Drilling is currently underway in 12-1/4” hole and the well is at a depth of 1,079 m True Vertical Depth (TVD). Forthcoming operations are to drill towards the LK1a reservoir objective while building angle for the horizontal section in the reservoir.

Puffin-8 was spudded with the Stena Clyde rig on Saturday 17th February. Water depth at location is 104 metres. The rotary table is 25 metre above the sea level. All depths are referenced from the rotary table unless otherwise stated.


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## chops_a_must (5 March 2007)

Ouch! Parachutes people!

Absolutely in the middle of nowhere in regards to the share price. Nothing stopping this one from going back to 3.50.


----------



## resourceboom (5 March 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Ouch! Parachutes people!
> 
> Absolutely in the middle of nowhere in regards to the share price. Nothing stopping this one from going back to 3.50.




Bring on that $3.50 c.a.m.
I've got some spare cash dying to be spent on bargains!!


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## bigdog (6 March 2007)

AED ASX ann March 6

AED 4:34 PM  Drilling Progress Report No 2 - Puffin-8 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00700437

There was talk last week about trip to Singapore!!!

Expect ASX Ann end of this week on Puffin South West Resources!!

Drilling Progress Report No 2- Puffin-8
During the past week drilling operations continued at Puffin-8. The operations included drilling 12-1/4” hole to 1628m MD (Measured Depth). As a precautionary step the rig was de-manned due to cyclone activity in the region. Re-manning will commence tomorrow and drilling will recommence on Thursday. The disruption in the drilling program is not expected to impact on the overall project schedule. Forthcoming operations are to drill towards the LK1a reservoir objective while building angle for the horizontal section in the reservoir.

Puffin-8 was spudded with the Stena Clyde rig on Saturday 17th February. Water depth at location is 104 metres. The rotary table is 25 metre above the sea level. All depths are referenced from the rotary table unless otherwise stated.

Additional Note – Puffin South West Resources
AED has previously advised that it is will be releasing Oil Initially In Place information relating to the Puffin South West area. It was expected that this information would be available by the end of February 2007. The Company wishes to advise that the information will be released by the end of this week.
Trevor Slater


----------



## gunditrader (6 March 2007)

Hi Guys,

Really appreciate all you posts. Have absolutely no geological knowledge however I recently stumbled across some figures from the US$85m convertible notes issue circular that macquarie bank fully subscribed to. 

Come July 1, 2007 AED will be producing 30,000 bopd - 10,800,000 bopa. 

Considering they have 1.2m bo hedged at US$71 these guys are in line to make a packet next year. From my calculations assuming the remaining oil after hedging is sold at US$50 pb 2008 FY revenue equals US$565.2m. The circular also states that production is expected to increase to 40,000 bopd in the future (can't recall when off the top of my head). 

Also estimates operational expenditure at US$70m per year. 

From my calculations assuming the remaining oil after hedging is sold at US$50 pb 2008 FY revenue equals US$565.2m A$750m. 

The fundamentals look fantastic for this company in the next 12-18 mths.

Can't wait for the upcoming drilling results.


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## bigdog (8 March 2007)

AED SP is currently up 4.85% this morning on VG volume of 234,625

$4.97 +0.230  +4.85%  234,625 share $1,152,381 @ 08-Mar 11:46:59 AM 

Expect ASX Ann today or tomorrow Puffin South West Resources per ASX ann on March 6 2007

AED 4:34 PM Drilling Progress Report No 2 - Puffin-8 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070306/pdf/311bk8db3sf08j.pdf

"The Company wishes to advise that the information will be released by the end of this week."

Date	-----Close-Volume				
07-Mar-07	4.74	277,123	 
06-Mar-07	4.57	218,136	 
05-Mar-07	4.52	466,157	 
02-Mar-07	4.76	149,093	 
01-Mar-07	4.89	199,706	 
28-Feb-07	4.82	648,110	 
27-Feb-07	5	330,122	 
26-Feb-07	5	613,015	 
23-Feb-07	5	404,075	 
22-Feb-07	5	429,020	 
21-Feb-07	5	580,000	 
20-Feb-07	4.85	240,179	 
19-Feb-07	4.85	147,233	 
16-Feb-07	4.99	302,682	 
15-Feb-07	5.02	765,354


----------



## bigdog (8 March 2007)

ASX ann March 8

AED 12:29 PM  Puffin South West Oil Resources 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00701058
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070308/pdf/311cl0kyyqws3b.pdf

ASX Announcement
8 March 2007
Puffin South West Oil Resources
Puffin SW region oil volumes similar to NE - Appraisal/production well planned in 2007

Estimates of Oil Initially in Place (OIIP) in the Puffin South West region (SW), in the Timor Sea, owned 100 per cent by AED Oil Limited (AED or the Company), have been confirmed in the range of 38 to 97 million stock tank barrels (MMstb). This range and the most likely volume of 65 MMstb are similar to the volume of oil in the Puffin North East region (NE) now being developed by AED. Recovery factors for the SW are likely to be broadly similar to those for the NE and are estimated to range from 40% to 70% depending upon the areal extent and shape of the reservoirs, reservoir quality and performance and the mode of development.

To better define oil volumes in the SW and reserves, AED plans to drill an appraisal/development well on the structure in October this year, as part of a confirmed three well drilling program over the broader Puffin Field.

The Company is also committed to additional seismic processing and interpretation, including re-processing of an earlier BHP Petroleum generated 3D seismic survey and horizon-based velocity analysis. Bids for this work have been recently received and are currently being evaluated. The work is expected to be completed in three months.


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## bigdog (8 March 2007)

I would appreciate if someone could calculate the value of the AED oil reserves?

Please detail your calculations.

There has been minmimal SP increase apart from reaching high of $5.15 and now down to $4.99 following ASX ann today
AED   $4.99    +$0.25  +5.27%  $5.15 high and  $4.86 low  626,832 shares  $3,124,915  @ 08-Mar 13:39:47


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 March 2007)

Big dog check my post on NWE, I have calculated what the royalty is going to be worth = $65m so you'd think well over $3Billion to AED


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## bigdog (8 March 2007)

AED Shares Issued 71,219,034  with Market Capitalisation $355.4 million at March 7 close @ $4.74 suggests that there should plenty for SP increases!!



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Big dog check my post on NWE, I have calculated what the royalty is going to be worth = $65m so you'd think well over $3Billion to AED




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=132088


			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> NWE previously released 49m recoverable barrels which gave a royalty stream value of $41m
> 
> So I'm betting they will take the P50 figure again = 65m bls, apply a "conservative" 44% recovery factor as they have in the past which will give them 28.6m bls recoverable
> 
> ...


----------



## chops_a_must (8 March 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> AED Shares Issued 71,219,034  with Market Capitalisation $355.4 million at March 7 close @ $4.74 suggests that there should plenty for SP increases!!



Very glad I got back into this yesterday!

Lesson #1: Don't move trailing stops fully on price rises of a very volatile stock! Especially when you want it as a long/ mid term hold!

Could be looking at an outstanding breakout tomorrow. The biggest volume seen in a long time.

And also some big numbers going through at NWE. Might be breaking out side by side for once.


----------



## bigdog (8 March 2007)

AED   $5.05    +$0.31  +6.54% with high $5.15  1,451,554 shares $7,247,828  at close today 08-Mar 16:10:10 

yes Chops, the volume today was great and only bettered on six occasions in the past 6 months

Date -----Close-Volume 
07-Mar-07 4.74 277,123 
06-Mar-07 4.57 218,136 
05-Mar-07 4.52 466,157 
02-Mar-07 4.76 149,093 
01-Mar-07 4.89 199,706 
28-Feb-07 4.82 648,110 
27-Feb-07 5 330,122 
26-Feb-07 5 613,015 
23-Feb-07 5 404,075 
22-Feb-07 5 429,020 
21-Feb-07 5 580,000 
20-Feb-07 4.85 240,179 
19-Feb-07 4.85 147,233 
16-Feb-07 4.99 302,682 
15-Feb-07 5.02 765,354

14-Feb-07 4.99 1,769,574 

07-Dec-06 3.9200 1,555,237 

11-Sep-06 3.7600 1,742,863 
08-Sep-06 3.7000 2,287,870 
06-Sep-06 3.0500 2,710,651 
05-Sep-06 3.1000 4,109,323


----------



## bigdog (9 March 2007)

Todays Age interpretation of yesterdays ASX ANN

30000 barrels per day at say $US60 * 365 days = $US657 million revenue PA from June from its north-east region reservoirs

Puffin's south-west region  was estimated yesterday to have a similar to the volume of oil in the north-east region that underpins Puffin's initial development (perhaps another $US650 million revenue PA)

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...l/2007/03/08/1173166895679.html?page=fullpage

AED Oil upgrades Puffin potential
March 9, 2007

AdvertisementONCE considered too small to warrant being developed, the oil potential of the 35-year-old Puffin discovery in the Timor Sea's Australian waters has been substantially upgraded by its owner of the past three years, Melbourne-based AED Oil.

The upgrading points to a possible doubling in Puffin's oil potential by taking in the field's south-west region. The upgrade comes as AED works towards establishing Puffin as a 30,000 barrel-a-day oil producer from June from its north-east region reservoirs.

Puffin's south-west region was estimated yesterday to have between 38 million and 97 million barrels of oil in place. That range ”” with a most likely volume of 65 million barrels and a recovery factor estimated at 40-70 per cent ”” is similar to the volume of oil in the north-east region that underpins Puffin's initial development. The estimate has prompted AED to begin studies into a possible stand-alone development.

AED shares were driven 31 ¢, or 6.5 per cent, higher to $5.05 on the south-west revelation, which is based on results from two previous wells and a review of geological, geochemical and engineering data.

The market is now valuing the company at more than $770 million (fully diluted). Former Macquarie Bank and UBS investment banker David Dix brought AED to the market in a $55 million float in 2005. Mr Dix is executive chairman and the group's biggest shareholder (20 million shares directly and indirectly).

AED plans to drill an appraisal/development well in October ”” and cautioned that the "relatively large" ranges in the south-west's oil volume estimate reflected the degree of "uncertainty inherent in the current estimates".

BARRY FitzGERALD


----------



## resourceboom (9 March 2007)

This oiler should produce approx 100M barrels of oil,
has some other outstanding and massive exploration targets,
and is only valued fully diluted at around $800M, unbelievable.
Still great value!!


----------



## resourceboom (13 March 2007)

looks like this one won't take off till the market has more confidence that the risks are reduced.... such as good results from the puffin 8 drill, and production meeting forecasts.... will be interesting if all is good.


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## alankew (22 March 2007)

Any chance someoen could put a bomb under this-very frustrating that it cant seem to hold above$5ish.Hopefully results not too far away


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## alankew (23 March 2007)

More buyers required please.Needs to close at current levels which would qualify as a breakout(not outstanding)Resistance at $5.15 looking at market depth then more at $5.20.Would i be right in assuming that after that there is little to hold it back(i am anly looking at Comsec so perhaps someone could help with data re sells at higher prices-is this info free anywhere else)


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## alankew (23 March 2007)

Note to self-type faster in future b4 price drops and you look stupid!


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## Tye (27 March 2007)

Looks like sellers have taken control of this one at present. $5 reseistance level needs to be broken with a strong candle for this share to take of, but looks like a sideways movement for a little longer.


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## laurie (27 March 2007)

Some still may see this a a risky stock  

cheers laurie


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## michael_selway (27 March 2007)

laurie said:


> Some still may see this a a risky stock
> 
> cheers laurie




Does this stock have limited mien life?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -4.2 -6.2 222.4 196.2 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.9 *

thx

MS


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## chops_a_must (28 March 2007)

Tye said:


> Looks like sellers have taken control of this one at present. $5 reseistance level needs to be broken with a strong candle for this share to take of, but looks like a sideways movement for a little longer.



I think the resistance at $5 is largely gone.

I wouldn't worry so much, it's just established a new trading range. From just below 4.45, and up until $5 ish, it's moved to between $4.70 and $5.20. Everything is going to plan. Breakout will hopefully be from above $5.20.

Strong ascending triangles are forming on all time frames, so it does look rather bullish, still.


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## michael_selway (1 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I think the resistance at $5 is largely gone.
> 
> I wouldn't worry so much, it's just established a new trading range. From just below 4.45, and up until $5 ish, it's moved to between $4.70 and $5.20. Everything is going to plan. Breakout will hopefully be from above $5.20.
> 
> Strong ascending triangles are forming on all time frames, so it does look rather bullish, still.




Does it look like below that AED only has a 11 year mine life approx?

thx

MS




> Date: 9/3/2007
> Author: Barry FitzGerald
> Source: The Age --- Page: B1
> 
> AED Oil has upgraded the potential of its Puffin oil field in the Timor Sea. The Melbourne-based company is aiming to establish the 35-year-old discovery as a 30,000 barrel-a-day oil producer from June 2007. The oil potential of the region's south-west has been estimated at up to 97 million barrels. The announcement caused AED's shares to rise $A0.31 to close at $A5.05 on 8 March 2007. The company is now valued at $A770m by the market.


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## resourceboom (1 April 2007)

Hi MS, I think you've asked about the field life a couple of times without answer, so I hope this helps:

Yes, the puffin field probably will probably have an approximate life of around 11 years, and likely to produce 10 mill barrels per year for much of that time. Based on this the company is very good value if everything goes to plan.

But they also have some great other exploration prospects with expected OIIP of over 100 million barrels more!

I have picked AED in the april tipping comp, as the currently drilling Puffin-8 should prove successfull, and that all is good in prep for 1st oil, so the market cap should increase significantly from current.  



michael_selway said:


> Does it look like below that AED only has a 11 year mine life approx?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS


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## Tye (2 April 2007)

The buyers dry up so fast on this share. As I stated before $5 is strong resistance, it just cant gain the strength to break this level signifigantly. 
Although consolidation is great for a share just before a large run up.


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## laurie (3 April 2007)

> AED Oil Limited
> ACN 110 393 292
> PO Box 18199
> COLLINS STREET EAST VIC 8003
> ...




$$$$$$$$  $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (3 April 2007)

I don't think this could have been any better for NWE or AED.

I'm no geologist or engineer, but it sounds as if everything went almost exactly to plan. Am I right? What's the prediction of a gap up tomorrow?


----------



## laurie (4 April 2007)

Strange market don't think so  

cheers laurie


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## Tye (4 April 2007)

So much 4 the stong move expected today. Even with the 60+ rise in All Ords didnt help this out. Very disappointed. What has to happen to this share to break out of its consolidation? Lets hope the last Hr can produce something today.


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## laurie (4 April 2007)

It will be like this until they become a producer treading water till then the oil found has already been factored into the sp  

cheers laurie


----------



## Tye (10 April 2007)

This share must be running purerly of Fundementals due to the fact it does not follow the large bullish moves we have been having (damn).


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## chops_a_must (11 April 2007)

Interesting announcement out tonight. Not sure if it is negative or positive, but I think it is positive.



> Puffin-8 Intersects More Than 200 Metres
> of Oil Bearing Formation
> Drilling Progress Report No 7
> The Puffin-8 ST1 well has delineated three mapped highs, *intersecting 232 metres of net oil bearing sand* (with tops revised after running gyro measurement). Most of the well was drilled as a horizontal trajectory, with vertical depth control to maximize potential producing intervals.
> ...




A point of confusion for me lies in the 232m of oil bearig sands. It says in the spudding ann that the minimum horizontal drilling would be a minimum of 250m


> Puffin-8 is the second development well targeting the main Puffin North East structure (NE1). The subsea location of the well is 310m south of Puffin-7. The well is again planned as a horizontal well, reaching the reservoir (LK1a sand) at approximately 2045m TVD RT (True Vertical Depth from Rotary Table).* The horizontal section would be a minimum of approximately 250m. *The well is expected to reach a minimum measured depth of at least 2920m RT, with a maximum of around 3800m RT. After completing the well, a short flow test will follow to ensure well integrity. The total time for drilling and completion of the well is estimated to be 42 days, assuming no downtime for weather or other reasons, with an estimated completion date of 29 March.
> http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070219/pdf/00694463.pdf




I'm assuming that that is the total distance expected of the horizontal drilling and not of the oil bearing sands. If so, one would suspect that they drilled further than the 250m to attain those results. So the difficulty in drilling is counteracted by the potentially larger than expected pay dirt.

I guess we wont know until tomorrow, and or the next announcement which will be vital.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## laurie (11 April 2007)

Chops
Has to break this resistance $5 

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (11 April 2007)

And the market didn't like it. Yet, NWE seems to be looking very strong. Fun and games right now.


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## laurie (11 April 2007)

What they did not like is the mention of *WATER* 

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (11 April 2007)

laurie said:


> What they did not like is the mention of *WATER*
> 
> cheers laurie




No, this is a good thing as it defines the limits of the field.


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## Tye (16 April 2007)

Hate to be negative, but i'm not a fan of this share anymore. that $5 resistance level has halted any positive rise in price and maybe the market has factored in all this and $5 is the new high's. Has anyone got any ideas of how this share will perform over the next few months/yrs.


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## laurie (16 April 2007)

Tye said:


> Hate to be negative, but i'm not a fan of this share anymore. that $5 resistance level has halted any positive rise in price and maybe the market has factored in all this and $5 is the new high's. Has anyone got any ideas of how this share will perform over the next few months/yrs.




Tye it must be time for you to sell I think  

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (16 April 2007)

Haha... squeelers.


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## resourceboom (17 April 2007)

News out....

Drilling Progress Report No. 8 for Puffin-8 Lower Well Completed

Puffin-8 well completion is making good progress, with the lower horizontal
completion run and pressure tested for good mechanical integrity.
Two separate zones have been completed with 6 5/8 inch screens. The plan is to next run the upper completion inside the casing before pulling the Blow Out Preventer (BOP) and installing the Sub -sea Tree.
The expectation is to flow the well during the last week of April, and to pull anchors nd demobilize the rig around the end of the month or early May 2007.

... I'm unlikely to go any good in the April tipping comp on this one, maybe may would have been a better choice of month!


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## spottygoose (18 April 2007)

Thanks to Bazza from SS for the following:

from upstreamonline.com

AED gears up for Puffin production

By Upstream staff 


Australia's AED Oil has said it expects to start production at the Puffin North West field off northwestern Australia at around 30,000 barrels per day in July and plans to drill three appraisal wells at Puffin South West to confirm reserve levels there by the end of the year. 

The floating production, storage and offloading vessel Front Puffin is expected to commence sea trials by early June, while work is progressing on a sub-sea installation and a manifold for two development wells at Puffin North East, AED’s managing director Ken Tregonning said. 

Reserves in Puffin NW currently total 40 million barrels, with oil-in-place at Puffin SW assessed at 65 million barrels with expectations that comparable recoveries of 45% to 70% will be achieved there. 

"We are looking at a target of 100 million barrels of reserves by the middle of 2008," Tregonning told Platts, noting that six more significant prospects needed to be drilled. 

One of these, Tadpole-Frog, could potentially be larger than the Puffin discoveries, he said. 

A number of different options are being assessed for development of Puffin SW, including a tie-back to Puffin NE, about 10 kilometres away, depending on recoverable reserves. 

The best case scenario is a standalone development based on the proving up of high recovery levels, Trengonning said. 

Meanwhile, AED's chairman David Dix told Platts that corporate activity would be totally focused on Puffin and the surrounding area for another three to five years before the company looks to Asia for further growth.


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## Tye (24 April 2007)

AED had some large maybe "corporate" buying come into the market on the 
20th of this month. It may be just large private investors but either way, hopefully some sort of buying has come into this share. This does not happen to often (large buyers) but historicaly a rise has taken place around 1 month after this. I dont hold this share now but in the near future..maybe.


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## gunditrader (30 April 2007)

I have a small holding in both AED and NWE. ATM I believe AED currently has way more upside potential than NWE. 
AED Enterprise value ~ 750m fully diluted
I get a NPV of just over $2 billion on my calcs. 
Using 10.5 m bopa @ US$50 for 6 years
Annual Op ex of $100m and a discount rate of 10%. 
So close to production, surely risks will be minimal from here. the market has to rerate this guy soon. Looking at topping up considering the current timeline.


----------



## laurie (1 May 2007)

The risk the market is factoring into the sp is that AED has only a single project one large cyclone can cause AED untold damage so there is nothing to fall back onto IMHO they need other projects or JV to spread the risk factor over several fileds in different locations 

cheers laurie


----------



## resourceboom (2 May 2007)

I agree more with gunditrader's valuation, and think that the risk of a cyclone to the target is minor, and even with a cyclone they would probably halt production for a month or so, so they produce approx 9 million barrels instead of 10, so what.  Chance of major damage minimal.

I think the market will rerate this once production starts and they prove they can hit their 10 million barrel target per year.



laurie said:


> The risk the market is factoring into the sp is that AED has only a single project one large cyclone can cause AED untold damage so there is nothing to fall back onto IMHO they need other projects or JV to spread the risk factor over several fileds in different locations
> 
> cheers laurie


----------



## resourceboom (2 May 2007)

I was hoping todays announcement "Puffin-8 Flowtest Supports 15–20,000 stb/d Production Expectation" would be released last month, as that was my tipping comp choice 

Oh well, hopefully this great ann can give the sp a run like the last major run from around $3.


----------



## laurie (2 May 2007)

We all are waiting for the oil to flow  

cheers laurie


----------



## chops_a_must (2 May 2007)

laurie said:


> We all are waiting for the oil to flow
> 
> cheers laurie




I don't think it's going to take that Laurie. The chart is now looking fantastic again. Long sideways consolidation, with a big white candle sticking up at the end of it. The price action today was great to watch. Fnishing on its highs, opening on its lows, without any step backwards throughout the day. On good volume as well! It reminds me very much of MCR pre the 2.30 breakout.

I cannot see any reason for this to fail at 5.20 this time... the only thing that would throw a spanner in the works are some options being converted. But I don't see why anybody would be wanting to sell right now as a lot of risk has been all but removed.

Cheers,
Chops.

(holding NWE and AED)


----------



## laurie (2 May 2007)

We are at the end of the financial madness months of May/June that's the only sell off coming that I can see, nice to see NWE stick its head above water  

cheers laurie


----------



## gunditrader (2 May 2007)

laurie said:


> We all are waiting for the oil to flow
> 
> cheers laurie




Cheers for your thoughts laurie. These responses help me question my decisions. Thoughts like this are especially valuable on such an optimistic forum, where negative comments are a rarity.  

However i can't see anyway but up for the share price from here. This stock has significant upside potential imo


----------



## laurie (2 May 2007)

gunditrader said:


> Cheers for your thoughts laurie. These responses help me question my decisions. Thoughts like this are especially valuable on such an optimistic forum, where negative comments are a rarity.
> 
> However i can't see anyway but up for the share price from here. This stock has significant upside potential imo




No worries gunditrader it's Xmas in July for us holders  

cheers laurie


----------



## chops_a_must (3 May 2007)

laurie said:


> No worries gunditrader it's Xmas in July for us holders
> 
> cheers laurie




Like I was saying yesterday Laurie, I didn't think it would take that long. And look at the sell depth now! There is basically nothing between here and $6!!   And sells are getting pulled and set higher, and they are just getting nailed consistently. It's fantastic... I have been very patient with this one, and it looks like it is paying off very well, again.

I'm not sure if anyone does darvas boxes, who follows this stock... but from a very rough and inexperienced job, it comes out about $7.10. Not bad.

Anyway... keep it coming.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## chops_a_must (4 May 2007)

Surprised I was the only one talking about this stock today...

Another day of this and it would most likely be very much an outstanding breakout. It's not even anywhere near fair value so its hard to see where this one will end.

There are rumours elsewhere that AED are doing the rounds with brokers to try and get some analysts looking at it. Makes sense as it still appears way undervalued, and all we have is the UBS report from a while back with a value of 12.30. And I don't think that even included the last round of reserve upgrades.

Anyway, the chart is now looking good again after a very long consolidation. 4.75 looks to have formed as very strong support. The volume is a long way off all time highs, although it is well above average levels... and the $ value of the trades today were probably roughly similar. If it can cluster a few big few days of volume together as it did at at ~1.50 and ~ 3.50.

Daily pivot points for anyone interested (just mucking around with these):
R3: 5.623
R2: 5.496
R1: 5.413
Pivot: 5.286
S1: 5.203 (interestingly, this is the old high resistance point...)

Finished on the R3 from yesterday.


----------



## nizar (4 May 2007)

THis one is already outstanding.
As for NWE, i hope its doing the right thing. I want it to open even at .20 or even .195 so it can run all day. If it gaps up to say .205 or .21 on the open, then if we dont get outstanding buying pressure it will get sold down.
Lets see what happens.

As for AED, it shouldnt close below $5 again.


----------



## bigdog (4 May 2007)

The market likes the AED announcements of recent days

Today AED   $5.51    +$0.18  +3.38%  $5.51 high and low of $5.35  339,100 shares  $1,844,239  04-May 11:43:06 

SP has increased 71 cents in past nine days - excellent action

Date ----- Close 	Volume
03-May-07	 5.33 	1,350,818
02-May-07	 5.08 	1,101,392
01-May-07	 4.83 	411,147
30-Apr-07	 4.79 	161,167
27-Apr-07	 4.80 	80,380
26-Apr-07	 4.80 	409,375
24-Apr-07	 4.77 	173,203
23-Apr-07	 4.80 	80,901


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## chops_a_must (4 May 2007)

In all reality, there just aren't any sellers left on this:

Price	Quantity	 	Number
1. 5.650	5,727	 	3
2. 5.690	1,800	 	1
3. 5.700	5,000	 	1
4. 5.750	1,200	 	1
5. 5.800	8,050	 	3
6. 5.900	12,000	 	2
7. 6.000	1,944	 	2
8. 6.500	4,000	 	2
9. 6.600	1,609	 	1

I am one happy camper right now. Another one for me to buy on any weakness...


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## laurie (4 May 2007)

I'm amazed why there are always sellers when its moving north  hmmm profit must be their sole purpose so why not hang on to them longer? Anyhow they ain't getting mine  

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (4 May 2007)

Tye said:


> Hate to be negative, but i'm not a fan of this share anymore. that $5 resistance level has halted any positive rise in price and maybe the market has factored in all this and $5 is the new high's. Has anyone got any ideas of how this share will perform over the next few months/yrs.




Very well.

As Bill Lawry says, "He's a Victorian this man!"

Interestingly, the R3 weekly pivot point comes out at 7.25. Close to that rough Darvas box calc. Perhaps if it runs hard again, it might pause in the low $7 range sometime next week?

Anyway, the weekend financial papers love stories like the Puffin one. Might get a few more people interested if it gets some press.


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## nizar (5 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Very well.
> 
> As Bill Lawry says, "He's a Victorian this man!"
> 
> ...




In at 5.43 the open.
Been waiting to get in for ages.
Yesterdays action confirmed the breakout for me.


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## svensk (5 May 2007)

In terms of the chart, this recent breakout has many similarities to what happened in early December last year. Hopefully for the holders of this stock it can have a similar result.


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## laurie (7 May 2007)

Topped up today looking the goods as nizar commented :                                               

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (9 May 2007)

Assume that market liked todays ASX ANN and now up 20 cents to $6.03

AED   $6.03    +$0.20  +3.43% high of $6.12 and low $5.81  489,085 shares 2,935,603  09-May 12:54:27 

09-05-2007 10:41 AM  AED  Drilling Progress Report - Final  
http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00719444

Drilling Progress Report - Final
The Company pleased to announce that following the successful drilling of the Puffin-8 production well, the Stena Clyde drill rig has now been demobilised.
Installation works for the Puffin-7 and Puffin-8 wells and the FPSO have commenced.


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## somesortoftrader (14 May 2007)

AED is still moving...  Does anyone know whats next for this beauty? 

Is $7 still on the horizon?


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## laurie (14 May 2007)

somesortoftrader said:


> AED is still moving...  Does anyone know whats next for this beauty?




Light Sweet Crude I would love to buy a bottle or two then again I may buy champagne and drink to AED success  

cheers laurie


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## CanOz (14 May 2007)

I'd hope some consolidation would follow this lovely breakout...i was just admiring the chart today, thinking "if i only had more time to pick out all of these great breaks".

Oh, well..plenty of time left for the oilers yet.

Cheers,


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## chops_a_must (14 May 2007)

somesortoftrader said:


> AED is still moving...  Does anyone know whats next for this beauty?
> 
> Is $7 still on the horizon?




I think it definitely is. You have people valuing AED conservatively at $8. There has also been talk of UBS valuing AED at over $12.

First oil scheduled for June/ July. So we could see it consolidating between 6 and 7 dollars before then... and then another run perhaps once we get first oil? 

And don't forget, testing of Tadpole-Frog is due to commence in the second half of this year, which is estimated to be double the size of Puffin. Absolutely massive potential with very low risk. I am absolutely rapt with this stock. It is paying off in spades for me now, and I'm sure it will in the future. Makes all the squeeling previously look silly.



CanOz said:


> I'd hope some consolidation would follow this lovely breakout...i was just admiring the chart today, thinking "if i only had more time to pick out all of these great breaks".
> 
> Oh, well..plenty of time left for the oilers yet.
> 
> Cheers,



Can. It is a fantastic chart. But even if you are interested in short term trades, it is quite volatile intraday while stable end of day, so it might be one you would be interested in. I've had two trading blocks in this share, both intended for short/ mid term trades, but have ended up keeping the both of them due to SP performance.

But certainly, oil stocks may be the place to be for the next month. WPL and OSH having good runs makes it almost compelling to get into some oilers. And AED certainly stacks up fundamentally and technically, it's a great stock.

And another one that has a fantastic chart, AOE, great fundamentally and technically, might be one you could put on your watchlist as well.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## bigdog (15 May 2007)

AED is off and running this morning up 31 cents and up currently up 25 cents

Code   Last   Move % Move Buyers Sellers Open High Low --Volume Value ----Last Traded 
AED   $6.50    +$0.25  +4.00  $6.57  $6.63  $6.55  $6.56  $6.49  78,350  512,028  15-May 10:00:46


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## laurie (15 May 2007)

One would think that AED looks now like it could attract a T/O offer from the big boys which would send the sp up a steep cliff with top management hold approx 38% the price they would have to pay would be at a premium I hope this does not happen because there is still a lot of steam left in the engine  

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (15 May 2007)

Laurie and Chops,

Todays finish was great with ALL time high and finish of $6.65.

Code   Last   -Move-%Move-BuyersSellers Open High Low -Volume --Value -----Last Traded 
  AED   $6.65    +$0.40  +6.40  $6.62  $6.65  $6.55  $6.65  $6.44  560,553  $3,675,368  15-May 16:10:55

I am tracking AED daily for potential takeovers (started six days ago).

Will send you PM when things look interesting.

Been in AED since Dec 2006 and very pleased with SP


----------



## resourceboom (15 May 2007)

Hi Bigdog.
Is there any issue posting any updates on suspected takeovers to the board.
I'm sure it should be ok if you mention that its all speculation?


----------



## bigdog (15 May 2007)

resourceboom said:


> Hi Bigdog.
> Is there any issue posting any updates on suspected takeovers to the board.
> I'm sure it should be ok if you mention that its all speculation?




Hi resourceboom

Yes there is a forum that can be updated; quote specifc sources or IMO!!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6386


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## imajica (16 May 2007)

what's everyones opinion of today's price action? seems like a consolidation day to me - I decided to buy back in on account of production drawing near - wish I was still holding from the early days


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## chops_a_must (17 May 2007)

imajica said:


> what's everyones opinion of today's price action? seems like a consolidation day to me - I decided to buy back in on account of production drawing near - wish I was still holding from the early days




Don't think there is anything to worry about. It ran incredibly hard. Doesn't appear to be a large amount of volume or anything. But this stock does have a tendency to be rather volatile, so it's not a good one to be on if you are hanging on a 10c movement or something...

I didn't think you were interested in the blue sky break out type stocks... or have you changed your strategy?


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## imajica (17 May 2007)

I originally had a large parcel under $2 and stupidly sold just before it took off - have always liked AED and now coming into production it seems like a solid bet - it appears we share some common ground chops - I used to apply a strictly fundamental analysis - which is fine but I agree you must time  your entry and exit according to T.A.


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## chops_a_must (17 May 2007)

imajica said:


> have always liked AED and now coming into production it seems like a solid bet - it appears we share some common ground chops - I used to apply a strictly fundamental analysis - which is fine but I agree you must time  your entry and exit according to T.A.



Yah.

I keep many stocks on a watchlist that I like fundamentally. And then look to get into these at the right price or time.

AED for me will definitely be one that I look at getting into more over the next few years on any weakness. But for now I have a lot of them and don't think I will be getting rid of them anytime soon.

You don't get many one way bets in the market. But surely, over the last few months, this has been as close to as it gets.

And VRE looks like it is suffering significant price action lag from the announcement this morning if you are still interested.


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## imajica (20 May 2007)

when production begins it has been speculated that the flowrate will be in the realm of 30-40 thousand Bopd

at 35000 bopd

AED will be pullling in around 1.1 - 1.2 billion in revenue a year

this is huge


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## laurie (20 May 2007)

That's grossed value not net  

cheers laurie


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## greenfs (21 May 2007)

My broker has indicated that a large brokerage firm has suggested to him $15 is not out of the question. Apparently, they have based this on projected future earnings against market cap being only slightly higher than 1:1 assessed when the share price was about $5.

Obviously, we will need to wait until production reaches peak to see if this level of blue sky can be achieved. I for one will not be selling this stock anytime soon.


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## imajica (21 May 2007)

laurie said:


> That's grossed value not net
> 
> cheers laurie





even after costs are factored in, AED is still a CASH COW

production and reserves will be expanded and this will be reflected in a healthy share price


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## nizar (21 May 2007)

greenfs said:


> My broker has indicated that a large brokerage firm has suggested to him $15 is not out of the question. Apparently, they have based this on projected future earnings against market cap being only slightly higher than 1:1 assessed when the share price was about $5.
> 
> Obviously, we will need to wait until production reaches peak to see if this level of blue sky can be achieved. I for one will not be selling this stock anytime soon.




My mate whos a client of Citigroup told me his broker told him that all brokers have been getting their biggest clients into AED for several months now.

They call it, the next Woodside...


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## imajica (22 May 2007)

huge bidding in the pre-open this morning - looks like the mini bearish run is over - some big players looking to get set me-thinks

should be an interesting week ahead


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## bigdog (22 May 2007)

imajica said:


> huge bidding in the pre-open this morning - looks like the mini bearish run is over - some big players looking to get set me-thinks
> 
> should be an interesting week ahead




Yes looking great up 45 cents on opening
Code   Last   Move % ---Move Volume --Value Last Traded 
  AED   $6.60    +$0.45  +7.32  154,980  1,022,868  22-May 09:59:56


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## laurie (22 May 2007)

Just think approx 83m shares on issue Dix owns approx 38% if not more leaves about 51m for the market to play with just think when this hits the news headlines then it will be double digit sp  

cheers laurie


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## rocka1 (22 May 2007)

HI all thought id buy in on this one the morning  looks like it is set to head up as volume is almost double today, also reached a new high earlier, also cash flow should be coming sooner than later  my opinion only do your own research


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## resourceboom (22 May 2007)

This share runs very hard when it does, and doesn't drop much on pullbacks great chart, as well great fundamentals if everything goes to plan.  ie 30K BOPD (potentially more) from startup. Plus large exploration targets (eg tadpole). Great company.


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## nizar (22 May 2007)

I heard UBS have put a target of $8.82 on this one.
I hate conservative brokers.
That almost sounds like a downramp to me!


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## imajica (23 May 2007)

AED gets a mention again in the financial review today on p22. It says that UBS upgraded its price target from $6.46 to $8.22

they are being conservative on purpose - as soon as it runs again or has another stellar announcement UBS will upgrade their price targets


I'm sure they reserve their 'real' price targets for their larger clients


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## bigdog (23 May 2007)

AED is looking great again today up 26 centts

AED   $6.96    +$0.26  +3.88%  63,788 share for $445,560  23-May 10:00:48


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## rocka1 (23 May 2007)

Currently up 33 cents to 7.06 glad I bought yesterday at 6.65 volumes looking good  my opinion only


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## rocka1 (23 May 2007)

Hi all just like to mention aed its starting to look very bullish, whats other members opinion as i would like to know ps i own some of these. dyor


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## nizar (23 May 2007)

rocka1 said:


> Hi all just like to mention aed its starting to look very bullish, whats other members opinion as i would like to know ps i own some of these. dyor




These started looking bullish when it first broke $5.20 on volume.
It was kinda in a stage 1 there for a bit over 4 months, from $4.75-5.20.
I was just watching, waiting for the break.
I was in at 5.43 about 2 weeks ago.


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## rocka1 (23 May 2007)

Well done nizar i got in yesterday at 6.65 100k worth am gonna sit in this one  its allready paying off well.


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## CanOz (23 May 2007)

nizar said:


> These started looking bullish when it first broke $5.20 on volume.
> It was kinda in a stage 1 there for a bit over 4 months, from $4.75-5.20.
> I was just watching, waiting for the break.
> I was in at 5.43 about 2 weeks ago.




I might wait for a pullback before getting in on this oiler....all those break a way gaps...you think they'll take a while to fill?

Cheers,


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## rocka1 (23 May 2007)

Well the gaps are filling just hit a new record high $7.08 lots of buyers hardly any sellers ,my opinion only dyor ps new high now 7.15 and still looking good


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## rocka1 (23 May 2007)

rocka1 said:


> Well the gaps are filling just hit a new record high $7.08 lots of buyers hardly any sellers ,my opinion only dyor ps new high now 7.15 and still looking good



NOT A BAD DAY UP OVER 8 % NEW HIGH OF $7.25  depth still looking good whats members thoughts, take over rumors maybe , ps my opinion only dyor


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## beach (23 May 2007)

The gap filling strategy might be a bit of a waste of time with this one, so tightly held and very few on offer day by day, so many gap ups from 4.38 - 7.25 hope that might help. regards beach


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## resourceboom (23 May 2007)

imajica,
did you notice in the AFR snippet, that even at the closing price yesty the expected forward P/E was 2.5
....no wonder people are still buying in big time !!


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## rocka1 (23 May 2007)

HI resource boom how do I get hold of afr snippet, ps some new members wouldnt know what you're talking about cheers


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## resourceboom (23 May 2007)

Hi Rocka,
Sorry about that, I was referring to the small snippet in the Australian Financial Review that imajica mentioned.  I saw the article in my lunch break, but don't have online access so I cant post anything.

And for any newbies that dont know what a expected P/E (price earnings ratio) of 2.5 is: UBS expect that the companies FY08 earnings be so large, that in 2.5 years the profits will equal the current total value of the company.

So it still is very cheap at this price, ASSUMING everything goes to plan when they start producing oil.  Enjoy  



imajica said:


> AED gets a mention again in the financial review today on p22. It says that UBS upgraded its price target from $6.46 to $8.22


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## chops_a_must (23 May 2007)

Holy crap!!

Just had a look at AED after getting back from work. What happened at the close? Why is the spread so massive? Was there a massive buy on the closing auction?

Sorry for the questions... just didn't get to look at the close today...

Looks like a total selling capitulation to me... but still not in oversold territory (78). So it could be interesting... When the fundamentals are crazy like this ones are, it can go anywhere. It's great fun anyway...  

Cheers,
Chops.


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## greenfs (23 May 2007)

Stock is in the process of being re-rated to over $8 on market consensus driver by major broker valuations. If you look at the PE against forecasts, a sp well north of $10 is a reality inside 2 years.

Granted that this is conditional upon management delivering forecasts. I am only sorry that I waited & watched the sp rise from $0.96 to $4.80 before investing


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## rocka1 (23 May 2007)

HI CHOPS A MUST  my opinion is the price is up and heading up further as there is more buyers and no sellers at the low end, company is under valued, i was on the market all day the price never looked like falling below $6.97 all day last 20 min of trade no sellers below $7.00  all above, ps i may be wrong my opinion only im amatuer


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## chops_a_must (23 May 2007)

rocka1 said:


> HI CHOPS A MUST  my opinion is the price is up and heading up further as there is more buyers and no sellers at the low end, company is under valued, i was on the market all day the price never looked like falling below $6.97 all day last 20 min of trade no sellers below $7.00  all above, ps i may be wrong my opinion only im amatuer






greenfs said:


> Stock is in the process of being re-rated to over $8 on market consensus driver by major broker valuations. If you look at the PE against forecasts, a sp well north of $10 is a reality inside 2 years.
> 
> Granted that this is conditional upon management delivering forecasts. I am only sorry that I waited & watched the sp rise from $0.96 to $4.80 before investing



Thanks for the thoughts fellas. Agree entirely, obviously... I think it could do $10 very soon with the amount of momentum this monty has going. However, some of the fib extensions I have on it seem to be grouping between 9.75 and $10. So perhaps strong resistance at this level? Perhaps getting there by first oil and going through after production confirmation? With a comparable sector P/E applied of 5-7... a SP target of between $12-14 to me looks possible.

What an absolute stonker of a stock to own though...


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## imajica (23 May 2007)

does anyone know the average P/E for an oil producer?

in smart investor mag it states that the industry average P/E for the oil and gas sector is 29

BPT has a P/E of about 10

at a P/E of 5 or 7 we can expect stellar returns (conservative)

at a P/E in line with the industry average we can expect returns of 'woodside' proportions

I believe that AED has significant room to grow because:

1. tightly held share register (only 75 million approx)

2. production imminent with massive room for reserve upgrade

3. massive revenue stream will fund further exploration and expansion in 2008
(this expansion will develop AED into a powerful force in oil)

good luck to all holders - looks like we both agree on this one Chops!!!!


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## nizar (23 May 2007)

Well it had a long stage one between $4.75-$5.20 for maybe
And you know what Stan said, the longer the stage 1 the stronger the stage 2! 

Yeh tight register only 78million shares.

Earnings of $2/share next year. Average P/E for the energy sector is 16.
Half that, lets take 8, and you'll see why i consider guys like UBS to be bearish on this stock! 

And remember production soon oil will be sold under TAPIS price thats much higher than WTI


----------



## gunditrader (23 May 2007)

Hey guys, 

I've been loving the recent run. $10 seems more than feasible by my calcs. If the price of oil can hold above US$60 this stock is currnetly trading at a PE of  around 2.5.  However at the moment with the limited proven field life I can't see it breaking through a PE of 5 without some significant news ie new oil discoveries. However these are more than possible. AED is set to be a real cash cow for the next couple of years. 

Cheers 
Gundi


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## chops_a_must (24 May 2007)

gunditrader said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> I've been loving the recent run. $10 seems more than feasible by my calcs. If the price of oil can hold above US$60 this stock is currnetly trading at a PE of  around 2.5.  However at the moment with the limited proven field life I can't see it breaking through a PE of 5 without some significant news ie new oil discoveries. However these are more than possible. AED is set to be a real cash cow for the next couple of years.
> 
> ...



Well... AED will be selling at a premium to the TAPIS prices as their oil is of high quality. So from memory... that's about $95AUD... ~ $76USD. Maybe it is worth doing another calc based on $70p/ barrel USD.


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## doctorj (24 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Well... AED will be selling at a premium to the TAPIS prices as their oil is of high quality. So from memory... that's about $95AUD... ~ $76USD. Maybe it is worth doing another calc based on $70p/ barrel USD.




You're correct that tapis will sell at a premium to the wti, but it's going to cost them a whole lot more than USD6/bbl to get the oil out of the ground and sell it.  

You could be reasonably conservative and start with a valuation based on USD20/bbl and go from there, rather than the USD70/bbl you suggest.


----------



## rocka1 (24 May 2007)

HI doctor j , so where do you get your figures from , glad i never said that.  you might have said i was down grading current price get my drift , cheers rocka


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## doctorj (24 May 2007)

Guys, you need to familiarise yourself with ASF's rules before posting.  Posts don't disappear without reason. 

Some threads for you:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/announcement.php?f=16
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4118
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4773
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6661

We here at ASF work hard, day and night, to ensure that it remains the highest quality trading/investing forum in the country.  By familiarising yourself with the rules, you can help us and save your own time by not creating content that is only going to be deleted.


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## rocka1 (24 May 2007)

HI  DOCTORJ  , i have just familiarized myself with rules hope i get it right next time , could you please tell me why its going to cost so much to get oil out of ground and can you please back up this claim posted by you at 12. 47 am cheer rocka


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## doctorj (24 May 2007)

rocka1 said:


> HI doctor j , so where do you get your figures from , glad i never said that.  you might have said i was down grading current price get my drift , cheers rocka



My figures were conservative, but infinitely more realistic than the suggestion of costs of $6/bbl.

Puffin is approximately 100m underwater.  It is using an FPSO, from which oil will have to be periodically taken ashore.  All costs money.

Take for example the Buffalo field off the north coast of Aust.  It's only in 30m of water and has a comparable recoverable reserves of about 32 million barrels and a similar short life and is/was also produced by FPSO.  Back in 2004 (last year for which I have data), operating costs were approximately USD33/barrel.  It'd take a brave person to argue that costs are likely to have done anything but go up since then.  When you start to think perhaps costs of USD40/bbl is reasonable, you're not far off my 'conservative' figure of USD20/bbl after costs.

Now, there's a chance I could be way off the mark as I've not seen the estimates put out by AED.  Had a look but couldn't find it - all I can do is compare to similar situations.

To the poster that was talking P/E's, given the short life of the field, 5 would be reasonable (take a look at ZFX's P/E - they also suffer a short life).

I'd be interested to see other's calcs, but based on USD20/bbl, OIP of 67mmbo and recovery of 50%, I get a NPV of between USD$500-600m.  AED's current market cap (according to Commsec) is currently $490m.


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## rocka1 (24 May 2007)

THANKS DR  for your reply very well explained ,thanks for taking the time to reply ,  ill keep it in mind , tomorows price will be very interesting  cheers rocka


----------



## chops_a_must (24 May 2007)

doctorj said:


> I'd be interested to see other's calcs, but based on USD20/bbl, OIP of 67mmbo and recovery of 50%, I get a NPV of between USD$500-600m.  AED's current market cap (according to Commsec) is currently $490m.



For you to get USD20/bbl costs would have to be close to USD60/bbl. Given NWE are calculating the value at USD50/bbl, I can't see how you are getting these figures. But even on this conservative estimate, AED could go another 25% pre-production to its NPV (as companies tend to rest on their NPV just prior to production).


----------



## rocka1 (24 May 2007)

GDAY CHOPS  in my opinion your spot on , im goin  nigh nigh , good luck if you buy aed  tomorow  , as i said i bought 2 days ago im more a short trader cheers rocka


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## doctorj (24 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> For you to get USD20/bbl costs would have to be close to USD60/bbl. Given NWE are calculating the value at USD50/bbl, I can't see how you are getting these figures. But even on this conservative estimate, AED could go another 25% pre-production to its NPV (as companies tend to rest on their NPV just prior to production).



Therein lies a trading opportunity for you perhaps.

Using $40/bbl after costs, you're looking at an NPV of about $1b.  The price you use will ultimately depend on your forward outlook for oil and how aggressive you are in your valuations.  This kind of disagreement makes a market 

Interesting that, aside from the success of puffin-8, there were plenty of AED on offer between $3-3.50 very recently and there's been no new information to get it here.  AED's been good to me (the chart is fantastic), but fundamentally, I'd find it tough to enter around these levels.


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## rocka1 (24 May 2007)

HI all see AED is up again almost 3 % the morning new high of $7.45 , Doctorj how can you find it tough to enter at this level when the stock has been rerated by brokers at $8.50 , sure their should be some pull back,  my opnion is it cannot keep running up i wish it could as i own some , it should consoladate before new run cheers


----------



## Sean K (24 May 2007)

rocka1 said:


> HI all see AED is up again almost 3 % the morning new high of $7.45 , Doctorj how can you find it tough to enter at this level when the stock has been rerated by brokers at $8.50 , sure their should be some pull back,  my opnion is it cannot keep running up i wish it could as i own some , it should consoladate before new run cheers



Rocka, brokers are not always correct. In fact, you may find stark differences in their 'analysis' and recommendations of stocks on the ASX. It's not uncommon for 5 brokers to have 6 different opinions of where a stock is going. I do note however, that UBS, Credit S and Duetsche all have buys on this, but their price targets vary greatly. Deutsche have a target price of $6.30, for example! So, just because one analyst has an $8.22 target (UBS) does not make it so. I'm not saying this is not a good stock or saying $8.22 or higher is not possible, just an observation.


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## doctorj (24 May 2007)

The other thing to be aware of is my valuation doesn’t consider any potential for exploration upside (such as Puffin 10 later this year) or any other projects.  It is also simplistic in the sense that I’ve assumed uniform extraction of the oil over the life of the well rather than high flow rates at the start reducing over the life of the field which is far more realistic.

The purpose of the valuation was to challenge people to come up with their own valuation rather than getting carried away talking about P/Es of 30 etc etc.  It wasn’t intended to be thorough – I literally did it on the back of an envelope.


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## rocka1 (24 May 2007)

HI KENNAS  you are quite right brokers will all have different opinions all they worry about is lining  their pockets, i didnt by this stock on brokers re-rating i bought on the fundamentals cheers rocka


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## chops_a_must (24 May 2007)

doctorj said:


> Interesting that, aside from the success of puffin-8, there were plenty of AED on offer between $3-3.50 very recently and there's been no new information to get it here.  AED's been good to me (the chart is fantastic), but fundamentally, I'd find it tough to enter around these levels.



I disagree. Reserves were increased when AED was at $5.00 one of the first times (you may remember the dud reaction for NWE at this time). And then the confirmation of flow rates. Other than that it was a lengthy consolidation and needed to recoup technically after such aggressive runs before its next leg up.



doctorj said:


> The other thing to be aware of is my valuation doesn’t consider any potential for exploration upside (such as Puffin 10 later this year) or any other projects. It is also simplistic in the sense that I’ve assumed uniform extraction of the oil over the life of the well rather than high flow rates at the start reducing over the life of the field which is far more realistic.
> 
> The purpose of the valuation was to challenge people to come up with their own valuation rather than getting carried away talking about P/Es of 30 etc etc. It wasn’t intended to be thorough – I literally did it on the back of an envelope.



Yus. It's almost disingenuous referring to the Buffalo field at the end of its life to base costs for Puffin. Of course fields cost a lot more money to run in their final stages. For some reason, I read someones thesis last night on well costs, and it looks as though the average daily costs for all rig types in the Timor Sea is in the order of $100,000 USD per day (http://www.library.unsw.edu.au/~the...ved/adt-NUN20070508.105146/public/02whole.pdf)  . With a conservative TAPIS price of USD70, that is still a 110,000USD a day clearance (with conservative flow rates of 30,000bpd).

P/E's of 30 etc are quite ridiculous IMO. However, some of the fib extensions that I have on AED fit quite well and point to a _possible_ run towards $10. Which to me, would fit in quite well with a conservative initial NPV. After production begins however, and towards the next quarterly, it will begin trading on P/E multiples instead. And we wont really know what fair value is until that point. But given people with more information than us are giving a P/E factor of ~2.5 at current prices, there is still reason to be positive even on very conservative valuations.

And it doesn't appear to value any other targets at all... especially tadpole-frog which is potentially larger than Puffin.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## doctorj (24 May 2007)

Really really really good post chops, thanks 

If you have it, I'd love to see AED/NWE estimates on costs per barrel.


----------



## resourceboom (24 May 2007)

Guys, just to keep you informed, the fully diluted mkt cap is over 1 Billion, as they have approx 150M shares fully diluted.

But between the two main fields they plan on developing they should have 80MBO that will be recovered.  And I think the p/e of 2.5 is based on the expected 10MBOPD!


----------



## gunditrader (24 May 2007)

Hey guys

Here are a few notes from the macquarie circular

*Production Process - FPSO*
The development of the Puffin Oil Field is to be undertaken using a disconnectable FPSO.
FPSOs have been used successfully in oil field developments proximate to the Puffin Oil Field,
including at Jabiru, Challis, Buffalo, Elang/Kakatua, Laminaria and Skua.
The development method involves the FPSO being tied back to subsea well completions (figure 1
below). The oil will be extracted from the Puffin-7 and the Puffin-8 wells and flow up to the FPSO
through flexible flowlines and umbilicals connected to the FPSO through a subsea manifold. The
FPSO will stabilise the crude oil produced from the wells and store it in its onboard storage tanks.
The stabilised crude will be exported by a flexible floating hose to an offtake tanker moored in
tandem to the FPSO. Storage in the FPSO will allow for the offloading of oil to shuttle tankers and
subsequent crude sale on a free on board basis. The currently anticipated point of delivery of the oil
will occur when the oil is taken out of the development facility to the storage tanks on board the
FPSO. That is, *the ownership will change on board the FPSO, prior to offloading to the shuttle
tankers.*

*Drilling*
As noted above, a two well campaign, involving the drilling of Puffin-7 and Puffin-9 wells, was carried
out in the first half of 2006. The Stena Clyde semi-submersible rig was utilised for that campaign.
The Company has also secured the Stena Clyde for the drilling of Puffin-8 commencing in February
2007. This well will supersede the previously announced Puffin-8 which was to be drilled in the Puffin
South West structure, to produce from the Puffin-2 reserves. The Company has appointed the Peak
Group as its drilling manager in relation to the drilling of Puffin-8 as it did with Puffin-7.
As part of its development and exploration activities in 2007, the Company is also considering
undertaking a further three well programme in order to assess further known oil accumulations within
the Permit Area. The programme is expected to include development of one production well in the
North East 1 region during the period October to December 2007. The wells are expected to be
drilled using the new Wilcraft build jack up rig, with Peak Group as drilling managers. *The expected
cost to drill and complete this programme is approximately US$100 million and is planned to be
funded mostly from cash inflow from expected oil production.*

Development and Ongoing operating costs
The Company has estimated that a total remaining capital cost of A$97.2 million will be required to
complete the Puffin-7 and Puffin-8 development wells (Phase 1 and 1A of the Puffin Oil Field
project). It is expected the that the funds from issue of the Unsecured Notes will be used for the
associated costs of developing the additional production well, Puffin- 8. As discussed above under
“Schedule for development and exploration”, the scope of Puffin-8 is beyond what was originally
contemplated by the existing debt facility, which was undertaken to fund only one production well,
Puffin-7.
A summary of the outstanding development costs are highlighted in the table below. These costs will
be funded by drawing down the remaining amount on the existing debt facility, the Unsecured Notes
issue and cash at hand.
Item
Estimated
Development Cost
(A$m)
Drilling of Puffin-8 14.1
Completions (Including Tree) 8
FPSO Capital Expenditure  —
Subsea Equipment 20.2
Installation services (AED proportion)  34.6
Project Management  5.8
Other Project Costs Including Insurance and Commissioning 9.6
Other  2.1
Total Development Cost 97.2
60
*The total ongoing annual operating costs have been estimated by the Company to be U.S.$70*
million. The Company believes that the most significant ongoing cost will be the cost of leasing the
Front Puffin FPSO.

Costs are obviously low in this case due to the sale of oil effectively on the FPSO facility. 

Make of this what you will. However I don't think MacBank would be too much off the money. 

However on these figures 30,000 bopd ~ 10,500,000 bopa

@ US$60pb  = US$630m

EBITDA = US$540m 

Even doubling these expected costs AED still looks attractive.

All figures are as of Convertible Note Offering -Exercise of Lead Managers Option 23/02/07. 

Looks OK to me .... any opinions


----------



## laurie (25 May 2007)

The only risk factor for AED and the market is that it's in a cyclone prone area during the period from Oct - May so expect a month lost in moving FPSO to safe ports,that's conservative given 1 cyclone but having lived in the N.T. for over 30yrs and the way weather cycles happen 2 or 3 could be possible you got to see what happened to ERA/BHP/RIO during the last wet season and they were land based operations it's not that AED has other wells producing while Puffin is out of action  

cheers laurie


----------



## chops_a_must (25 May 2007)

resourceboom said:


> Guys, just to keep you informed, the fully diluted mkt cap is over 1 Billion, as they have approx 150M shares fully diluted.
> 
> But between the two main fields they plan on developing they should have 80MBO that will be recovered.  And I think the p/e of 2.5 is based on the expected 10MBOPD!



So the field has a life of 8 days?  

Yes, they have a fully diluted market cap of over 1 billion dollars... BUT the oppies have an expiry in 2010. SO, as with all options, taking into account the half life etc. they really shouldn't have an impact on the price action of the heads until closer to the expiry date. Especially considering the best part of the production will be over and done with well before this expiry... so I doubt whether the forward P/E figure takes into account the diluted market cap... as it couldn't be if the options weren't exercised at the time of share earnings...



			
				gunditrader said:
			
		

> The total ongoing annual operating costs have been estimated by the Company to be U.S.$70
> million. The Company believes that the most significant ongoing cost will be the cost of leasing the
> Front Puffin FPSO.
> 
> ...




Ha! Looks like I wasn't far off with my punt of costs close to 6USD per barrel! Obviously that will increase as the field ages...

Just wondering how you got an EBITDA of USD$540m after total earnings 630m? Is that with the 70m yearly costs + 1/5 of the total costs (100m)? It's late... maybe I've missed something...



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Really really really good post chops, thanks
> 
> If you have it, I'd love to see AED/NWE estimates on costs per barrel.



Well, I aim to please lol. There has been some good data on here that I had forgotten about...

I still think on a bang for buck analysis, NWE is still ahead... as the 1.25% royalty as I understand it is to be paid prior to any costs being taken into account...

Obviously, I happily hold both.  

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. Dr. J, did you ever play this game in your younger years?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_on_One:_Dr._J_vs._Larry_Bird


----------



## doctorj (25 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> P.S. Dr. J, did you ever play this game in your younger years?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_on_One:_Dr._J_vs._Larry_Bird




Sort of.  The only difference is back then we actually got outside with a ball and pretended to be the players.  Sure my hair was never quite as good as the good Doctor, but the rest was almost identical 

I'm astonished the costs are so low.  I guess I'll have to eat my hat.  Glad to see some good analysis come out of it though.  Some of the posts in the last couple are amongst the best in the stock threads on this forum I think.  Thanks for sharing your research 

I guess I'll have to pick on people in another thread and see I can get some good analysis out of them too   In the mean time, neither this report or this bottle of vino will finish themselves...


----------



## rocka1 (25 May 2007)

hi chops , Dont you guys sleep ,just like to thank you guys for very imformative posts, im learning heaps im only a newbie really , i got out of aed  today only as im a bit uncertain on what the markets got in store next 2 weeks , sell in may more like sell in june ill sit on the fence after tomorow see what happens metal prices up tonight might get a rebound tomorow , ps friday is normally a pullback day i hope not cheers rocka ps sorry guys just checked Kitco web site prices on all metals down almost 3 %or more not good


----------



## mick2006 (25 May 2007)

interesting to see the price divergence between WTI Crude now at $64.33, UK Brent Crude $70, and Asian Tapis $78.90 a barrel.  With Brent and Tapis heading north overnight and WTI heading south.

With the location of the Puffin fields AED/NWE will be selling their oil at the premium price of Asian Tapis, which in turn will lead to higher revenue in the long run.

Will be interesting to see how they both trade today given their recent strength and the selloff in the US overnight, against the continued strength of the Tapis oil price and the impending commencement of production from Puffin.

What do you guys think?


----------



## gunditrader (25 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Just wondering how you got an EBITDA of USD$540m after total earnings 630m? Is that with the 70m yearly costs + 1/5 of the total costs (100m)? It's late... maybe I've missed something...




Chops, my subtraction skills seem to be failing me. EBITDA at these figures should be revenue minus operating costs. 
So US$560m


----------



## imajica (25 May 2007)

I know we had a poor lead from the US but why on Earth would people be selling with production approaching?

volumes are small so Im not too worried


----------



## somesortoftrader (25 May 2007)

A stumble through the day .... a low of $6.90... close at $7.26.

$7.00... the new floor?


----------



## nizar (25 May 2007)

Yeh it could well be, i was waiting at 6.70 to top up as i thought she may fill the gap, but no go. Looking strong in a generally down day.

Imajica - who cares about production, people could have all sorts of reasons to sell, maybe to buy the next AED? THis has come a long way from 85cents.


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## imajica (25 May 2007)

AED Oil
Coverage initiation
Stock: AED AU
Recommendation: Outperform

Event

We initiate coverage of AED Oil with an Outperform recommendation and A$7.90 target price.

Impact

Delivering the cornerstone development: AED Oil is currently developing the Puffin oil field (100%) with first oil expected mid-August 2007. The Puffin oil field is AED Oil's cornerstone development and is located ~700km west of Darwin, and 80km south west of the mature Challis and Jabiru oil fields. We forecast AED Oil to produce up to ~8mmbbl in 2008 from the FPSO Front Puffin.

Reserve growth potential: AED Oil expects its 40mmbbl 2P reserve base to grow significantly as oil initially in place (OIIP) estimates are de-risked through seismic re-interpretation, appraisal drilling and field production. We highlight that the Puffin South West region has the potential to significantly increase AED Oil's current 2P reserves. AED Oil is currently evaluating all available data and is expected to confirm SW reserve estimates by first oil.

Further regional upside: AED Oil expects to begin a three well program (two confirmed, one optional) in October, focused on appraising the Puffin North East 2 and South West regions. The greater Puffin horst area has the potential for additional exploration and development upside following project delivery.

Strong demand expected for Puffin's crude: Puffin is expected to produce a high quality, light (API of ~44 degrees) sweet crude, which is forecast to trade at a premium to Tapis. We note that Tapis is currently trading at a US$9-11/bbl premium to West Texas Intermediate (WTI). We currently forecast Puffin's crude to trade at a ~US$6/bbl premium to our WTI forecast in 2008, with risk to the upside.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: A$7.90 based on a discounted cash flow methodology.

Catalyst: Reserves upgrade following review of OIIP estimates and reprocess/analysis of seismic and well data. Delivery of Puffin development by mid-August. Further appraisal drilling.

Action and recommendation

We initiate with an Outperform recommendation.

AED Oil is an emerging oil development company currently focused on delivering the Puffin oil field. We highlight that although AED Oil is leveraged to some significant reserve and production upside, it presents a higher risk investment thesis than its Exploration & Production peers with asset and commodity diversification. Unique risks specific to AED Oil include project delivery risk, single asset exposure and commodity prices.

Macquarie


----------



## mick2006 (26 May 2007)

for those of you that are on AED it maybe worth putting some of your profits into NWE as they have the upside from the puffin fields with their royalty and exciting global exploration over the next 18 months. With large drill targets in the UK north sea, the timor sea, Australia and gas targets in the US.

With AED firmly focussed on the development of puffin they won't have the time for further exploration of other projects in the near term, where NWE just banks the royalties from Puffin and Jingemia and can continue their efforts finding the next big thing. 

I am a holder of both stocks and like AED for its upcoming strong cash flow and future dividends, but I am now accumulating NWE for its exploration upside due to the cashflow created from its royalties.

Would be interested to hear thoughts on the upside of both stocks.

Below is an analysis of the cash flow created by puffin for NWE

just working on some calculations as to the value of upcoming puffin field oil royalties for NWE. Please feel free to correct me if I get it wrong.

Field production of 30,000 bopd
NWE share 1.25%
Tapis Oil Price Received $78.90
Exchange Rate of .8194


= 375 bopd * current tapis price $78.90 usd 
= $29587.50 usd per day or $36108.75 aud per day

or 

= 2625 barrels per week
= $207,112.50 usd per week or $252,761.25 aud p/w

or

= 136,500 barrels per year
= $10,769,850 usd per year or $13,143,585 aud p/year

The above calculations use the current spot tapis oil price and the current USD/AUD exchange rate.

It shows that without any capital expenditure NWE stands to earn over $13 million dollars in royalty per year for at least the next 5 years and that doesn't include any further explorational upside from the puffin fields, which are considered prospective to hold at least double current discovered oil.

On top of that they are currently earning $1 million per year from royalties from the Jingemia fields.

So with $14 million in revenue per year to go toward the $7.8 million they already have on hand it gives plenty of scope for some high risk/reward exploation targets.

Goes to show that even a small interest in a big oil field can earn some serious dollars for a junior explorer. 

And with many large scale drill targets over the next 18 months you can see why the investment community are starting to sit up and take notice!!


----------



## laurie (26 May 2007)

I'm sure NWE had a 2.25% royalty and AED cut it down to 1.25%  

cheers laurie


----------



## cloggs (28 May 2007)

I read somewhere that NWE had a 2.5% stake, but that meant they had to pay their way for developing the field. It was cut to 1.25% for a free ride.


----------



## bigdog (28 May 2007)

SP looking great this morning up 26 cents

Code   Last   Move % Move Buyer Seller Open High ..Low ..Volume .... Value ...Last Traded 
AED   $7.52    +$0.26  +3.58  $7.52  $7.54  $7.34  $7.52  $7.34  205,736  1,530,072  28-May 10:57:56


----------



## laurie (28 May 2007)

cloggs said:


> I read somewhere that NWE had a 2.5% stake, but that meant they had to pay their way for developing the field. It was cut to 1.25% for a free ride.




hmm don't know if that's the reason AGS has a 25% stake and is free carried          

cheers laurie


----------



## imajica (29 May 2007)

typical flat day on the market after holiday on wall street

nice bit of consolidation for AED today - low volume 

a strong lead from wall street + strong oil price + announcement of first commercial oil production from Puffin will see AED's share price re-rated


----------



## imajica (31 May 2007)

AED gone into   pre_nr  status

announcement pending?

strong bidding this morning, just when will AED start producing? is it next month?


----------



## imajica (31 May 2007)

here is the announcement - market has responded with AED jumping to $7.70

could someone please explain the potential of the talbot oil field


ASX Announcement 31 May 2007 
ACQUISITION OF TALBOT OIL FIELD

AED Oil Limited (AED) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement to 
acquire Retention Lease AC/RL1, including the Talbot Oil Field. Under the agreement, AED will acquire 100 percent of AC/RL1 from Apache Northwest Pty Ltd for a cash consideration of AUD 2 million. The sale will be effective 2 July 
2007. 
A further announcement regarding the acquisition will follow. 


Ken Tregonning 
Managing Director


----------



## imajica (31 May 2007)

source site: http://www.nt.gov.au/dpifm/Minerals_Energy/index.cfm?header=Prospective Fields

4. Talbot

Talbot oil field was discovered in 1989 and is now under retention lease. 



Reserves: 2 to 5 million barrels 

Development: Possible use of Floating Production Barge for processing and storage with periodical offloading into a tanker.


----------



## imajica (31 May 2007)

current estimates for Talbot are between 2-5 million barrels - they are essentially getting the field for about $1 per barrel approx. when in production - say having a $15 per barrel profit margin - at the upper end of estimates we can see this transaction worth 75 million for AED


----------



## laurie (31 May 2007)

imajica said:


> current estimates for Talbot are between 2-5 million barrels - they are essentially getting the field for about $1 per barrel approx. when in production - say having a $15 per barrel profit margin - at the upper end of estimates we can see this transaction worth 75 million for AED




So why did Apache sell it cheap! $2m  unless they have a % free carried status then again is Apache on the ASX 

cheers laurie


----------



## imajica (31 May 2007)

I would say Apache might have been short of cash - in a short time AED will be a cash cow - and hence, will be able to develop the field quickly -


----------



## imajica (31 May 2007)

my calculations taken from the department of industry website must have been extremely outdated

an additional announcement by AED states that the Talbot field has approx:

21.8 million barrels approx (13-30 million range)


----------



## imajica (1 June 2007)

thought it was time for another stellar AED chart

could a technical guru provide some interpretation of this seemingly bullish chart

thanks in advance


----------



## jimski (3 June 2007)

I'm a Europe based investor new to this board but not AED.  Where I am we don't get Australian Financial Review etc.  Can anyone please point me to a good source of information about AED on the net?  Obviously I have the website and ASX stuff...  

Thanks


----------



## mick2006 (3 June 2007)

Certainly a very good time to be holding AED, rising oil price, commencement of production on Puffin fields due very shortly, exploration upside.  

Will take shape nicely of the next couple of years, one of the better long term holds, will generate massive cashflow from Puffin allowing massive exploration efforts over the next couple of years.  And wouldn't be surprised if dividends are possible late next year.


----------



## BankRoller (3 June 2007)

AED is certainly a goer and a long-term hold for anyone who currently holds it. There is enormous upside for this company with their exploration ventures. Could be another Woodside in the making.


----------



## gunditrader (3 June 2007)

AED managed to get a write up in petroleumnews.net  to do with the talbot plans.

AED spreads wings over Timor Sea *UPDATE*
(Friday, 1 June 2007)

FOLLOWING its acquisition of retention lease AC/RL1 yesterday, AED Sea says it plans to bring the Talbot oil discovery in the Timor Sea into production in late 2008.

Just wondering if someone with a subscription could post it up here. 
cheers in advance
g


----------



## BankRoller (3 June 2007)

FOLLOWING its acquisition of retention lease AC/RL1 yesterday, AED Sea says it plans to bring the Talbot oil discovery in the Timor Sea into production in late 2008.

Map showing AED's Timor Sea assets

The company, which paid $2 million for Apache Energy's 100% stake in the retention lease, said the field is independently estimated to contain 21.8 million barrels of oil initially in place.

Of this figure, a recovery rate of 30-60% is estimated based on other comparable fields in the region, it said.

"The Talbot field was identified by AED as an opportunity to expand its regional operations on a synergistic basis at the time of the original acquisition of the Puffin Field," AED said.

"AED has been in negotiations to acquire this field for some years."

Discovered in 1989, the field will be subject to an appraisal and development program with the aim of bringing it online by late 2008.

Initial development plans include drilling a new production well with dual lateral horizontal well bores and an initial gas cap blow-down, followed by oil production and water production.

"This type of development model has been used successfully in other fields in the Timor Sea region," AED said.

"Additionally, it also has exploration potential and may provide synergies with the Puffin Field development, including the Puffin South West region development, which is presently being considered."

The retention lease is covered by modern 2D seismic lines and a reprocessed 3D seismic survey.

Santos has drilled two wells in the lease to date, Talbot-1 and Talbot-2. Both tested and flowed at rates of up to about 500 barrels of oil per day.


----------



## imajica (4 June 2007)

I wonder why both AED and NWE are weaker today?

with AED's imminent production and recent acquisition of the talbot oil field it amazes me why people would sell at the moment!


----------



## Robert_Q (6 June 2007)

Does anyone know what AED's expected production costs will be? I was using USD20 per barrel for my analysis, does that sound reasonable?

I think RRT also applies on this field. Is that still 40% of profit? I'd appreciate some thoughts on this because unless AED does some exploration (hence the Talbot acquisition) to offset RRT, that is going to take a big chunck of it's cash flow.

Anyone have thoughts on this?


----------



## aosleung (7 June 2007)

I am no expert at share trading but based on logic it seems to me that the recent drop in AED's share price is either related to the new issue announcement or sell-off in the Shanghai.  The latter is not unreasonable given there was some effect back in February when the Shanghai fell 9.9% but I am surprised by the number of shares issued - c44m versus c73m previously on issue which equates to c$320m-330m. Even more surprised that there is no information on this whatsoever.

I question what the company will do with this money given the recent acquisition only costs $2m.  If it goes to directors then obviously, there is a dilution effect becuase there is no extra value from the issuance.  If it stays in the company, then what interest rate will the company earn on the cash or have they run out of cash for puffin (not previously mentioned in their qtrly reports)?  If it goes towards a new project then the question is whether the project is npv positive?  Due to these uncertainties, despite the strength of the share price to date and the strong management team, unless they come out with an announcement soon to address this issue, it is difficult not to expect the price to drop further.  

Based on this reasoning, I am thinking of trading on the short term volatility which I don't often do for AED but it's very disappointing to see such a large issue without any support.


----------



## imajica (7 June 2007)

AED bouncing back today - production imminent - this stock is sound as a pound - compare AED to FMG for example - no profits for ages and a market cap of 11 billion!

AED is a sound investment


----------



## bigdog (7 June 2007)

Two reports today as BUY

AED - Buy for imminent start to huge cash flows from Puffin oil

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=04AC2DB1-17A4-1130-F5F3BFE18F79CDC0

http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning Note Thursday.pdf


SP finished up today
AED   $7.38    +$0.18  +2.50% with high $7.45  292,233 shares $2,130,601 @ 07-Jun 16:10:22


----------



## dj_420 (7 June 2007)

hey guys i like AED for huge cash flows about to start. im not in yet but only looked at it today.

this will be my first gas and oiler ive bought never really researched them before.

what other gas and oilers are you guys looking at that are production imminent??

thanks


----------



## olive_tree (8 June 2007)

aosleung said:


> I am surprised by the number of shares issued - c44m versus c73m previously on issue which equates to c$320m-330m. Even more surprised that there is no information on this whatsoever.
> 
> I question what the company will do with this money given the recent acquisition only costs $2m.




This is not a share issue, it is simply shares which had restrictions imposed as part of the float being released from those restrictions and becoming listed.  No real affect on the company at all.


----------



## imajica (8 June 2007)

Intersuisse Another Supporter Of AED Oil

 FN Arena News - June 07 2007

By Chris Shaw

Until the end of last month when Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to Neutral on valuation grounds AED Oil (AED) had scored a perfect four for four Buy ratings in the FNArena database on the back of its expected production growth from the Puffin oil field.

With the stock having pulled back a little since the Credit Suisse change the valuation scenario is improving, enough for Intersuisse to rate the stock as a Buy at current prices given the upcoming commencement of production.

The broker notes production is forecast to start in the September quarter at a rate of around 30,000 barrels per day, while this should be added to in 2008 via the recent acquisition of the Talbot oil field located just 60km away from Puffin.

This should enable some infrastructure to be shared, so lowering production costs for the company. At the same time there remains exploration potential at Puffin, while the broker also is attracted to the fact the oil produced will be Tapis crude, which attracts a premium given its relatively low sulphur content.

On the brokers estimates the company should generate a net profit in FY08 of $338.4m, compared to a forecast loss this year of $14.5m. Such a result would translate into earnings per share of 226.4c, which equates to a P/E (price to earnings ratio) of just over 3x at current prices.

Shares in AED Oil are stronger today despite the weaker overall market as at 3.30pm the stock was up 17c at $7.37. This compares to a recent high of $7.76, while the average price target in the FNArena database is $7.42.


----------



## jimski (8 June 2007)

With net profits FY08 estimated at $338.4m what is then the estimate for payment of first dividends on AED?


----------



## aosleung (8 June 2007)

olive_tree said:


> This is not a share issue, it is simply shares which had restrictions imposed as part of the float being released from those restrictions and becoming listed.  No real affect on the company at all.



 Good response!  Given the lack of responses on this issue (prior to your response), I assumed people here didn't understand so I subsequently went back to the previous Appendix 3B and noticed that there were 84m quoted shares and 33m unquoted shares hence no change.  Half yearly financials were also showing shares on issue of around 112m so the effect if any should be small.  Thanks for clearing this up!  Gives me a bit more confidence in reading these threads.


----------



## aosleung (8 June 2007)

jimski said:


> With net profits FY08 estimated at $338.4m what is then the estimate for payment of first dividends on AED?




Estimating the first dividends would be speculation since AED has not come out with a dividend forecast.  You could however perform an Earnings per share calc $338.4m divide by number of shares on issue 117m which gives you $2.88 and P/E is therefore 2.52x which is very low compared to its peers hence the reason the share price has kept on going up.  However as brokers have pointed out, AED has the risk of single asset exposure and unless they can extract more oil or bring on more projects like Puffin, it's difficult to see how share price can keep on going up. Hopefully, talbot might make a difference.


----------



## aosleung (8 June 2007)

imajica said:


> AED bouncing back today - production imminent - this stock is sound as a pound - compare AED to FMG for example - no profits for ages and a market cap of 11 billion!
> 
> AED is a sound investment



 This is pure speculation.  The real answer is noted by Olive. The share price has come down today so it's just market volatility.  But good on you for having speculated for so long!


----------



## resourceboom (9 June 2007)

aosleung, investing in any company involves some degree of speculation on its future, obviously there is higher risk in companies not yet making money.

However I believe that AED is one of the best risk - rewards prospects available on the market at the moment.

Management have publicly announced they expect (the main risk) based on flow testing the two producing wells at at least 30,000 bopd (10M per year, do the math). Now I think there is a fair chance of the P/E on success (Eg after 1 years production) should be at least 5-8, considering that they still have 3 other zones including the large SW.  They have the newly purchased field and massive exploration targets.

The exploration drilling, which will be started in the 2nd half of this year will reduce PRRT which will be large.

Its also wise to look at the downside. Even if there was massive problems (ala HDR in Mauritania), which I think is a much lower risk, as the Puffin field is in a very productive and established area, then after the initial fall I believe the share price would be unlikely to slide to under the current price, as there should be a further runup before production.

I agree with your comments, just noting why some people are so keen on the company, esp at the current price.  If you could list a company which you believe should at least comfortably double in the next year, with relatively low risk, then I would be very interested.


----------



## dj_420 (12 June 2007)

now on board this one guys, future forecast PE of 3 is something unbelievable.

just wish i picked these guys up earlier. im in this one for long term, my first gas and oiler and i like it a lot. got around half my order so will fill the rest on any weakness in sp.


----------



## nizar (12 June 2007)

dj_420 said:


> now on board this one guys, future forecast PE of 3 is something unbelievable.
> 
> just wish i picked these guys up earlier. im in this one for long term, my first gas and oiler and i like it a lot. got around half my order so will fill the rest on any weakness in sp.




Good man.

Welcome aboard.

Check out NWE as well, they are getting Royalties from AED for any production on puffin field.


----------



## dj_420 (12 June 2007)

yeah have had another look at NWE nizar, they do look very good for future cash flow.

expect AED to be a major cash cow very soon!


----------



## imajica (19 June 2007)

appears to have broken out of recent consolidation in the low 7's

currently at $7.46  looking promising


----------



## Sprinter79 (19 June 2007)

This may seem like a n00b question, but I found the following interesting when I looked at the market depth of AED just after close.

The seller has put his/her price much lower than the last trade, and the buyer has put theirs in much higher than the last trade. Is this just to ensure that their trade goes through, or is there something else to it?


----------



## dj_420 (19 June 2007)

thought this was an interesting pattern on AED long term chart, typically shows large increase between 30-50% followed by a consolidation period of 3-4 months.

last increase saw a rise from $5 up to $7.75 now trading between $7 and $7.50. tested short term support around 7 ish and held. downside support i would put at $7 with medium term support at $5.


----------



## questionall_42 (19 June 2007)

For all those AED sharehholders out there, thought you'd be happy to know that your company is receiving publlicity in the least likely places.

I walked the "Run to the G" in Melbourne on Sunday, and there were about 10people wearing AED tshirts with the puffin logo.  Very cute.


----------



## laurie (19 June 2007)

$5!!!! not at this stage when production is close until the FSPO turns up $7.20 - $7.40 will be the base resistance line if POO holds up at their levels now it only takes one strike or a large oil refinery to go off line then it's anyone guess

cheers laurie


----------



## dj_420 (19 June 2007)

laurie said:


> $5!!!! not at this stage when production is close until the FSPO turns up $7.20 - $7.40 will be the base resistance line if POO holds up at their levels now it only takes one strike or a large oil refinery to go off line then it's anyone guess
> 
> cheers laurie




lol im only telling what the chart says laurie!

IMO it wont fall back down to these prices, and i expect to see this one get picked up on any weakness from here on in

im just stating from tech point of view SHORT term support at the moment at around the $7 mark and longer term support at $5

yes with production imminent we will begin to see another rally IMO


----------



## Areo (19 June 2007)

Sprinter79,

The quick answer is yes, the overlap in prices will ensure the buy and seller transact.

The market was in pre-open at the time of your snapshot. This is an auction period, where bids and asks may be placed in the market without trading. At a random time between 4.10 and 4.11 the market is effectively locked down, all bids/asks are matched, and a closing price is determined. 

A professional trading system (you appear to be using E*Trade, so such a system would be E*Trade Pro) can calculate the match price for you which can be quite handy when trying to achieve a specific price. The algorithm may be found on the ASX website.

BTW, it can be dangerous to bid too high / sell too low. I recall Deutsche Bank taking a huge hit on the AMP IPO in the 90s - I think a significant number of sellers pulled out their asks at the last second which resulted in a much higher match price. Heads rolled that day.

Regarding AED, if it all comes together without too many hiccups... it will be trading at such a low PE.... there is so much potential here.

Questioning the Talbot purchase... don't really understand it just yet. Didn't  Hardman Resources hold it, sunk a well or two and subsequently abandoned it?

Areo


----------



## Sprinter79 (19 June 2007)

Areo said:


> Sprinter79,
> 
> The quick answer is yes, the overlap in prices will ensure the buy and seller transact.
> 
> ...




Thanks for that. I'm not really that worried, i just found it interesting. I'm sure that there have been some unintentional outcomes in the past doing this hahaha, and both trades were for a piddly amount of shares too!


----------



## nizar (19 June 2007)

dj_420 said:


> lol im only telling what the chart says laurie!
> 
> IMO it wont fall back down to these prices, and i expect to see this one get picked up on any weakness from here on in
> 
> ...




I beg to differ.
The previous trading range was $4.75-5.25.
Support at $4.75.
Hence my initial stop was set to $4.70.

Still in the current trading range since mid-May $7.00-$7.70.
Hasnt broken out of this trading range yet.
Today was bullish though nice volume,

When it breaks above $7.70 on some vo


----------



## laurie (19 June 2007)

dj_420 said:


> lol im only telling what the chart says laurie!




lol no worries dj_420 charts look like a drawing of steps to me one of these days I may understand how to read them  would love to know if the FPSO is on it's way to fill up 

cheers laurie


----------



## Robert_Q (20 June 2007)

I was reading through the prospectus from a couple of years ago and was interested in the royalties payable on Puffin. I know about the 1.25% payable to NWE but there was mention of 20% of production upto 10.3 million barrels then a sliding scale of 10% and 15% for above that level. I didn't really understand it but i was hoping that someone here could briefly explain that for me. 

Also, royalties are paid on gross revenue rather than profits, right?


----------



## imajica (25 June 2007)

I thought it might be time for another chart post

could someone with T/A wizardry please interpret this graph

thanks in advance

to me it looks like its ready for the next leg up


----------



## chops_a_must (25 June 2007)

imajica said:


> I thought it might be time for another chart post
> 
> could someone with T/A wizardry please interpret this graph
> 
> ...



I agree. Although, with delays expected to the production start up, it could drift back down.

Horizontal trading in an uptrend indicates an unwillingness of holders to sell at this point in time, and at this price. There has been a slight drop in volume over this period, with any weakness swiftly bought up, and any volume pushing the price higher. Once again indicating further upward pressure and momentum.

Whether or not it has an outstanding break from here this time, a new floor and support level has been set. I will be looking to trade the breakout again, although only looking to freehold these profits, rather than adding to the now large holding. I've said previously where I think this will go technically, perhaps just shy of $10 on commencement of production or just before, and a mid term target of between $12-14.

But a close above 7.75 will see this one go again IMO.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## imajica (28 June 2007)

dow up 90 points and crude oil nearing $70 a barrel

the only thing that will stop AED is the end of financial year  - I feel that July and August will be good for AED holders


----------



## bigdog (28 June 2007)

SP is up first today:

AED   $7.40    +$0.17  +2.35%  7,972 shares $58,779  28-Jun 10:11:00 

ASX ann today
28-06-2007 09:46 AM  AED  AED enters into Crude Oil Marketing Agreement with Total  
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070628/pdf/31355qyx14z2cf.pdf

AED Enters into Crude Oil Marketing Agreement with Total
AED Oil Limited (AED) announces that it has entered into an agreement with Totsa, Total Oil Trading SA (“Totsa”), a subsidiary of Total SA (“Total”), for the marketing of the Puffin North East Crude Oil.

AED has undertaken an extensive selection process for its crude oil marketer and is pleased with the natural alignment of marketing strategies achieved under this agreement. AED is pleased with the extensive market opportunities within the region and globally that Total offers.

Puffin is a premium quality light sweet crude with an API Gravity of approximately 44° and sulphur content of 0.05 wt%. The crude produces high yields of excellent quality gasoline and middle distillates making it an ideal feedstock and, in particular, for Australian and Asian refineries which should result in valuation at the high end of world crude prices. The agreement with Totsa is based on a FOB (Free On Board) contract.

Total is one of the world’s major oil and gas groups, with activities in more than 130 countries.  Its 95,000 employees put their expertise to work in every part of the industry – exploration and production of oil and natural gas, refining and marketing, oil and gas and electricity trading.


----------



## dj_420 (28 June 2007)

yes it is starting to come together nicely. does anyone realise that at end of july they will be producing 30 000 barrels of sweet crude per day?

cant wait for re-rating on this one


----------



## imajica (28 June 2007)

*AED Enters into Crude Oil Marketing Agreement with Total*

AED Oil Limited (AED) announces that it has entered into an agreement with Totsa, Total Oil 
Trading SA ("Totsa"), a subsidiary of Total SA ("Total"), for the marketing of the Puffin North 
East Crude Oil. 

AED has undertaken an extensive selection process for its crude oil marketer and is pleased with 
the natural alignment of marketing strategies achieved under this agreement. AED is pleased 
with the extensive market opportunities within the region and globally that Total offers. 

Puffin is a premium quality light sweet crude with an API Gravity of approximately 44° and 
sulphur content of 0.05 wt%. The crude produces high yields of excellent quality gasoline and 
middle distillates making it an ideal feedstock and, in particular, for Australian and Asian 
refineries which should result in valuation at the high end of world crude prices. The 
agreement with Totsa is based on a FOB (Free On Board) contract. 

Total is one of the world's major oil and gas groups, with activities in more than 130 countries. 
Its 95,000 employees put their expertise to work in every part of the industry * exploration and 
production of oil and natural gas, refining and marketing, oil and gas and electricity trading.


----------



## Sprinter79 (29 June 2007)

Has anyone had a chance to read through in detail the presentation that they've just released to the market? I had a quick look through it, seems interesting. 

I would provide a link to it, but if you're interested you can find it online


----------



## laurie (29 June 2007)

Production start up in the air take your pick
July-August,September  

cheers laurie


----------



## bigdog (29 June 2007)

*Re: Recoverable Oil up to 100 Million Barrels*

ASX late today
AED 5:52 PM  Recoverable Oil up to 100 Million Barrels 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00734706

ASX Announcement after the closure of trading today!
-- 100 Million Barrels @$US 67 = Revenue $6,700,000,000 
-- 

What will the SP be on Monday?

29 June 2007
Recoverable Oil up to 100 Million Barrels

AED Oil Ltd (“AED” or “the Company”) is likely to have up to 100 million barrels of recoverable oil AED is in the process of reviewing its petroleum development assets, the 100% owned Puffin and Talbot fields. Based on the results to date, indications are that the Company is likely to recover in excess of 100 million barrels from these fields, which include the Puffin North East region (NE1 and NE2), Puffin South West (SW1 and SW2) and Talbot, subject to suitable field development. The Company also remains optimistic that additional development targets and exploration prospects will be identified in ACL/6 and ACP/22.

AED Oil Ltd was listed in 2005 with a likely recovery from ACP/22 of 11 million barrels. The drilling of three wells (Puffin 7, 8 and 9) and extensive technical studies, based on reprocessing and reinterpretation of two 3D seismic surveys has led to a significant increase in mapped oil and potential recovery.

Further details regarding recoverable volumes will be announced shortly. AED Oil Ltd is likely to commence production from the Puffin field (NE1) in August 2007.


----------



## bigdog (29 June 2007)

imajica advises:

remember AED is selling their oil at a premium

more like $75 US a barrel for Tapis crude

nice one

imajica


----------



## gfresh (1 July 2007)

Just watched an interview with the MD(?) this morning on ABC's inside business..  Explained a few things, and seemed very level headed. 

He basically explained there is great potential for the future of AED, with of course the stability of the region compared to other places such as Nigeria. Looks like a lot of the Puffin area was handballed around over the years (by the likes of BHP), etc years ago, for the 'easier' areas such as gulf of mexico at the time. Now things have changed a little, and the price of oil skyrocketing, instability in some other areas, it makes the area very attractive. 

Anyhow, a good inside rundown. Transcript should be on the ABC website soon (not up there yet). 

Charts would indicate a perfect breakout scenario at the moment, which of course is held up by the 100mil barrel announcement.. 

It seems like awareness of AED in the market is only small at the moment, however I can only see this going very northward over the next few months, and beyond that the next few years - as easy to access oil supplies become harder, and of course demand shoots up from China, India, etc.


----------



## BankRoller (1 July 2007)

Grfresh,
Can you please provide a link to the transcript when it is up?

Certainly looks like AED is getting the publicity it deserves now.


----------



## bigdog (1 July 2007)

BankRoller said:


> Grfresh,
> Can you please provide a link to the transcript when it is up?
> 
> Certainly looks like AED is getting the publicity it deserves now.




I would imagine link is which has not been updated for this week as gfresh advised below
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/


----------



## Plan B (1 July 2007)

*AED Oil's double Timor Sea estimate*

Sunday Jul 1 12:33 AEST
Oil developer AED Oil Ltd has more than doubled the estimate of its Timor Sea oil reserves to 100 million barrels and expects to begin production by August this year.

But the company's extraordinary growth could also make it a takeover target if the energy sector begins consolidating, AED Oil's chairman David Dix said.

The latest estimate of AED Oil's Puffin and Talbot fields, 700km west of Darwin, was released to the market after it closed on Friday.

The previous estimate of AED Oil's reserves was 40 million barrels.

"We've probably got the potential to move up towards 100 million barrel fill," Mr Dix told ABC's Inside Business.

The latest estimate comes a little more than two years after the company's $55 million float with just under 11 million barrels in expected reserves from Puffin.

The market now estimates the company is worth close to $890 million.

Mr Dix said the field had been previously owned by a number of other oil companies including BHP Billiton.

But when the oil price went down, the big producers lost interest in investing more money in developing the Timor Sea field.

However, AED Oil had noticed that other small projects in the area had developed beyond initial expectations.

"Those projects gave us the confidence the Timor Sea was a difficult area to actually interpret and understand," Mr Dix said.

"Therefore, there was potential and we talked about that at the time of the float but you never really expect to be that lucky."

Mr Dix said he expected consolidation in the energy sector due to growth and the high commodity price.

As a result, labour and capital equipment shortages were creating a need for bigger companies which could compete better, he said.

But AED Oil was more focused on developing its own assets than taking over other companies.

"We are probably more likely to be a target and from my experience in acquisitions in this sort of market, it's very difficult to acquire things and get them at face value," he said.

Mr Dix said he expected the North West Shelf area had a lot of potential as oil field as well as producing gas.

With the oil price around $70 per barrel, there was renewed interest in the area, he said.

In March 2005, AED Oil raised $55 million with its initial public offer of 64.7 million shares at 85 cents each to develop its Timor Sea fields.

Shares in the oil company closed five cents higher at $7.55 on Friday.

Link


----------



## jackson8 (1 July 2007)

please excuse my ignorance but will this latest estimate have any affect on sp of norwest energy. i have a small holding in them

thanks


----------



## dj_420 (1 July 2007)

well we now have over an 100% increase in recoverable barrels of oil!

i wonder what this will do to the sp come tomorrow, AED should now be coming up on the radar for many larger companies and insitutions with such a large increase.

anyones view on what price this could put valuations at?


----------



## imajica (1 July 2007)

lets have a look at base case production

30000 barrels x A$90 (approx for tapis grade) x 365 = 985,500,000


that''s nearly a billion revenue a year

even if we take half of this away to take into account running costs, wages, taxes etc we still have an EPS between $2 - $4  a share (per year)

with the new reserve upgrades AED should be producing for a minimum of a decade - a fair P.E based on proven reserves and the likelihood of proving more up, in my opinion, would be between 7 and 10 

share price prediction : $14 -$28 in the short to medium term

                                 $30 + in the long term


----------



## nizar (1 July 2007)

dj_420 said:


> well we now have over an 100% increase in recoverable barrels of oil!
> 
> i wonder what this will do to the sp come tomorrow, AED should now be coming up on the radar for many larger companies and insitutions with such a large increase.
> 
> anyones view on what price this could put valuations at?




I think this news plus the associated press (TV interview, newpapers, internet) over the weekend will propel us into blue skies either 2mrw or tuesday IMO.

Imajica -- Nice ramp bro.


----------



## doctorj (1 July 2007)

imajica said:


> lets have a look at base case production
> 
> 30000 barrels x A$90 (approx for tapis grade) x 365 = 985,500,000
> 
> ...



I think this has been covered well over in the NWE thread.

Shares on issue (fully diluted): 153,281,752
Assume $45/bbl costs (per your post)
45*30,000*365= $492,750,000
EPS = 321cps

All reasonable so far.  Where I disagree with your valuation is your application of a P/E between 7 & 10.  At this stage, the life of Puffin is (don't quote me here) something like 5 years.

If we ignore the exploration upside, namely Puffin-10 for a moment and try to value AED on its future cash flows, using your assumption of 50% costs and A$90/bbl, a discount rate of 10% and a field life of 5 yrs @ 30k bopd, you get a valuation per share of about $12.19.  Personally, I wouldn't be looking to value something based on such a high commodity price, but then again maybe this is offset by the production costs we've assumed.  Using A$80/bbl for the first year and A$60/bbl for the years after, you arrive at $8.77 per share.


----------



## dj_420 (1 July 2007)

doctorj said:


> I think this has been covered well over in the NWE thread.
> 
> Shares on issue (fully diluted): 153,281,752
> Assume $45/bbl costs (per your post)
> ...




i dont think you are taking into account the full upside of the resource upgrade. 30 k per day for five years gives us 54 million barrels. what about the fact they stated 100 million recoverable barrels, that will double the length of resource life.

broker valuations also had put this one at 10.90 _before_ resource upgrade. IMO this one will see some dramatic upside in days to come.


----------



## gunditrader (1 July 2007)

I bet Mr Costello is loving this too. The 40% PRRTax will definitely put a smile on his face ... and a considerable dent in the earnings of this company. Still looking great though. Bring on $10 .....


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## doctorj (1 July 2007)

dj_420 said:


> i dont think you are taking into account the full upside of the resource upgrade.



Good pick up!  I'd be interested in your thoughts on the image attached.  Modified it for the extended life.


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## dj_420 (1 July 2007)

doctorj said:


> Good pick up!  I'd be interested in your thoughts on the image attached.  Modified it for the extended life.




very interesting! looks very good now!

i think the upside has added quite a significant amount of life to the field. would be good to see the new valuations that brokers placer on this one.


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## imajica (1 July 2007)

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200707/r156469_565974.asx


ABC - Inside Business - about 6 minutes in - long interview with David Dix discussing AED oil


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## bigdog (2 July 2007)

Todays Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21999886-643,00.html

WHAT THE BROKERS SAY
Kevin Andrusiak 
July 02, 2007 

Looks like CREDIT Suisse got AED wrong!

*Extract refer last paragraph*

Australian Worldwide Exploration
Credit Suisse
Neutral: $4 (12-month target) 

CREDIT Suisse has changed its rating on AWE from outperform to neutral, citing the recent 18 per cent run-up since the middle of May. Credit Suisse's 12-month projected return for AWE is 14.6 per cent, which now implies a projected excess rate of return relative to the market of 2.7 per cent - hence the neutral rating. *Credit Suisse has also put an underperform rating on AED Oil as it struggles with its Puffin field start-up. The 12-month price target for AED is $7.25.*


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## bigdog (2 July 2007)

The market liked Fridays announcement and news reports over the weekend
-- up $1.44 or 19% in first minutes today 

AED  8.99 1.440  19.07%  with high of 9.02 530,910 shares $4,651,217 @ 02-Jul 10:08:20 AM


----------



## nizar (2 July 2007)

bigdog said:


> The market liked Fridays announcment and new reports over the weekend
> -- up $1.44 or 19% in first minutes today
> 
> AED  8.99 1.440  19.07%  with high of 9.02 530,910 shares $4,651,217 @ 02-Jul 10:08:20 AM




Yeh but its the *close* that is important.

Will be very hard to manage a white candle after a buck gap up, but i hope the professionals close it well.

Then i can double my position 2morw.


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## nizar (2 July 2007)

Why did it have to gap up so much??

Why couldnt it just act in a civilised manner so a nice gap up to $7.70 (15 ticks) and then run like a champion to close at $9 ??

Instead a 96 tick gap up and now a gap that will probably have to be filled before we go any higher


----------



## dj_420 (2 July 2007)

nizar said:


> Why did it have to gap up so much??
> 
> Why couldnt it just act in a civilised manner so a nice gap up to $7.70 (15 ticks) and then run like a champion to close at $9 ??
> 
> Instead a 96 tick gap up and now a gap that will probably have to be filled before we go any higher




well nizar now we have new high and resistance to beat now!

so even though gap will probably be filled will allow chance to top up under new highs, then assault the new highs again to break out


----------



## gfresh (2 July 2007)

Not sure about that creditsuisse report - it looks like most of their analysis is that they've just based their analysis on 'well the share price has risen xx% over the last year, therefore odds are against it rising another xx%' .. I guess that is a nice conservative opinion, and works for bluechips and more established stocks - but for this one I think there is a long way to go..

Well, now I'm a holder as of this morning..lets see where it takes me.


----------



## nizar (2 July 2007)

Chart attached showing how AED is about to break out of its third consolidation in a year.

The break of the previous 2 consolidations, resulted in a short 1-month rally where there was 40-60% sp appreciation.

Admittedly, this is the shortest of the 3 consolidation periods, so the break probably wont be as sharp.


----------



## dj_420 (2 July 2007)

im hoping your right nizar

if history is anything to go from we could see between a 25-50% rise. i would love to see AED into the double digits.


----------



## dj_420 (2 July 2007)

well guys another 40 million barrels just announced from puffin south west.

great stuff. i wonder what the potential upside could be for all the fields from puffin and timor. anyways looking great.


----------



## Ken (2 July 2007)

Please refer to post 56 on this thread.


Not blowing my own trumpet...  but whoever sledged me to back up my broker valuation of $12-$14, I apologise for not proving the information to back up the info I received. At the time the share price was $3.50.


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## bigdog (2 July 2007)

dj_420 said:


> well guys another 40 million barrels just announced from puffin south west.




*AED 12:38 PM  40 Million Barrels in Puffin South West *
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00735061

*40 Million Barrels Contingent Oil Resource in Puffin South West*
Independent expert Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has today provided to AED Oil Limited (AED) a letter detailing its examination of the volume of recoverable oil as a Contingent Resource* in the South West (SW) region of the Puffin Field. The Best Estimate for the potentially recoverable volume of oil is 40.3 million stock tank barrels (MMstb) based on deterministic methods. An extract of the letter providing the summary is attached. The recovery factors and potentially recoverable volume of oil are similar to that for the NE1 area of the field in the North East (NE) region. The entire Puffin Field including the NE and SW is in Production Licence AC/L6 and has an existing approval from government for development.

The SW region of the field is located approximately 10 km southwest of the current field development in the Puffin North East (NE) area. The SW area has been penetrated by two discovery wells, Puffin-2 (drilled in1974 by ARCO) and Puffin-9 (2006, AED). Puffin-2 discovered and tested oil at a rate of 4600 barrels of oil per day in the upper sand (UK1a).

The lower sand (LK1a) at Puffin-2 was water bearing with residual oil saturations. Puffin-9 is located 1900 m southeast of the Puffin-2 well and tested oil on a wireline tests (MDT) in both the UK1a and the LK1a sands. The total Oil Initially in Place (OIIP) for the SW area including the UK1a and LK1a is calculated by GCA to be a ‘Best Estimate’ value of 77.8 MMstb.

Recovery factors are estimated at a ‘Best Estimate’ value of up to 52% for the UK1a and 51% for the LK1a.

Following an extensive review of geological, geochemical and engineering data GCA have concluded that there is a single extensive oil pool in the UK1a reservoir. This common, continuous pool in the UK1a reservoir encompasses the Puffin-2 and Puffin-9 well areas. This evidence includes similar oil geochemistry, pressure data from both wells, similarities in sand thickness and petrophysical properties, and stratigraphic data from Puffin-9. Actual recovery factors for the SW region will depend upon the areal extent and shape of the upper and lower reservoirs as well as the aquifer and the mode of development including a possible need for water injection to supplement the aquifer’s pressure support.

* Contingent Resources may conceivably convert into reserves (in accordance with SPE guidelines) when the development plan has been finalized and the economics optimised.

In order to develop plans for the most effective extraction of the SW oil Contingent Resource, AED has commenced further work including:
1. Drilling and testing of an appraisal/production well on the Puffin-2 structure. Preliminary planning is underway for drilling of this well in 2008. AED’s next drilling programme commences in November this year with the drilling in the NE development area of two horizontal laterals producing through a single production casing for early tie back to the Front Puffin FPSO.

2. Additional seismic processing and interpretation, including re-processing of the 3D dataset, and horizon-based velocity analyses. The work is expected to be completed next month.

3. Expanded development planning for long lead items based on the number and locations of wells, facilities, etc.  More generally, AED has begun conceptual development planning to examine options for the overall field development including possible synergies with Talbot development. This work is required to optimise the overall development of AED’s assets including the SW, NE (including the NE1 and NE2 areas) and Talbot. Development options include:
a. Joint development with the Puffin NE area (NE1 is currently being developed with the Front Puffin FPSO).
b. Stand alone SW development, eg, with one or more fixed structures (at 75m water depth in the SW is shallower than the 104 m in the NE).
c. Acquisition of a FPU (floating production unit) or additional FPSO facility for possible sequential development of Puffin SW and Talbot.


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## laurie (2 July 2007)

That's why the FPSO was delayed to allow AED to modify the vessel to accept feed from another well now lets hope no one is looking at this as a takeover target  

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (3 July 2007)

Melbourne oil company AED Oil hit the billion-dollar market cap yesterday when its shares jumped $1.09 to $8.64, having gone as high as $9.02 on confirmation its Puffin South West field offshore WA had 40 million recoverable barrels of oil.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...punters-regroup/2007/07/02/1183351125685.html


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## bigdog (3 July 2007)

SP today is currently down 36 cents
AED   $8.28    -$0.36  -4.17% with high of $8.81 and low of $8.21  481,456 shares $4,142,327 @ 03-Jul 12:46:26  

ASX just issued:
AED 12:35 PM   NWE's ann: Puffin Oil Volume Update 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00735572

Puffin Oil Volume Update
Norwest provides reference to a recent ASX announcement by the Puffin Oilfield operator, AED Oil Limited dated 2nd July, 2007.

In the announcement, AED refers to the latest estimates of potentially recoverable oil in the SW area of 40.3 million barrels. Combining that with previous figures provides the following table of oil volumes.

-------------------------------------OIIP  ----------Recoverable Volumes  
-------------------------------------Million Barrels --Volumes Million Barrels 
NE1 Oil Volumes P50 ---------------- 67 ------------ 40 
NE2 Oil Volumes, average (and range) 20.5 (11-30) ---9 (5-13) 
SW Oil Volumes best estimate ------- 77.8 ---------- 40.3 
Total ----------------------------- 165.3 ---------- 89.3 

A single number quoted for recoverable volumes indicates that AED has quoted these recoverable volumes. A number followed by a range indicates that Norwest has made assumptions from AED’s information.

Norwest holds a 1.25% over-riding royalty interest which covers the entire AC/P22 permit. The potential value of Norwest’s royalty stream using the estimated recoverable volume is calculated at between AU $66 million and $92 million based on an oil price range of from US$50 to $70 per barrel and exchange rate of $0.85.

AED also refers in an announcement dated 29th June 2007 to likely commencement of production for the Puffin NE1 area in August 2007.


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## gfresh (3 July 2007)

> Norwest holds a 1.25% over-riding royalty interest which covers the entire AC/P22 permit. The potential value of Norwest’s royalty stream using the estimated recoverable volume is calculated at between AU $66 million and $92 million based on an oil price range of from US$50 to $70 per barrel and exchange rate of $0.85.




Would it be right to assume then that AED's revenue would therefore be 98.75%, or $5.280bn - $7.360bn  ? or am I missing something.


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## dj_420 (3 July 2007)

gfresh said:


> Would it be right to assume then that AED's revenue would therefore be 98.75%, or $5.280bn - $7.360bn  ? or am I missing something.




thats right, will be on a PE of around 3 with future forecasts

for ten years oil production! broker reports will soon reflect these massive upgrades

looks the goods IMO


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## Pat (3 July 2007)

Hello AED holders, 
I'm on this one since the upgrade. But what has struck me is the recent volitility. It's as if the open aution jacks the price up, then the SP continues to fall throughout the day. Is the market "gob smacked" and deciding what value AED at? 
Pat.


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## chops_a_must (3 July 2007)

Pat said:


> Hello AED holders,
> I'm on this one since the upgrade. But what has struck me is the recent volitility. It's as if the open aution jacks the price up, then the SP continues to fall throughout the day. Is the market "gob smacked" and deciding what value AED at?
> Pat.




I don't think so. It's just that AED has always been an incredibly volatile stock when it is on the move. Must be a day traders dream at times to trade off these big swings.


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## nizar (3 July 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I don't think so. It's just that AED has always been an incredibly volatile stock when it is on the move. Must be a day traders dream at times to trade off these big swings.




I bought some more today on the open.
Didnt know if it was gonna close the gap or not.
FMG has a few gaps in the mid-20s that never got filled.

I couldnt risk it getting into double digits without me having a full bag.


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## jimski (4 July 2007)

With David Dix warning that recent rises in SP and possible consolidation in the energy sector make AED a potential takeover target - what does anyone think about the likelihood of this happening?

What are the positive and negative implications of a takeover for retail shareholders?


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## gfresh (5 July 2007)

Here is the transcript from that interview.. It's finally up at: 

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2007/s1968529.htm

----
ALAN KOHLER, PRESENTER: While Australia's oil output is tipped to start declining next year, there was at least some good news this week with the announcement that the biggest new field, AED Oil's Puffin lease in the Timor Sea would start production before the end of September. It's been a remarkably rapid rise for AED which started with a $55 million dollar float just two years ago and a key asset of an oilfield no one else wanted. Since then its grown to be a billion dollar enterprise, its share price has increased more than tenfold, and as you'll hear, it's ready to substantially upgrade its reserves. I spoke to AED's founder and Chairman, David Dix. (To David Dix) Well David Dix, some of the world's biggest oil companies picked over Puffin: Arco, BHP and so on, you came along, an investment banker, and found what they couldn't find, how does that work?

DAVID DIX, CHAIRMAN, AED: I think actually what we did was exploited what they'd previously found. The project was first identified in the 1970s by Arco. BHP's owned it, Alberta Energy's owned it, they've all put a lot of wells into it, they've all spent a lot of money in trying to explore it, oil price went down, they lost interest. It was never going to be at that stage the 500 million barrel field that Arco was looking for and we were looking for a small commodity play, small project that we could get fund to get up and going, fitted us, we spent money, we were lucky and it grew.

ALAN KOHLER: Did you think it would be a big field or was it just luck?

DAVID DIX: No. We saw there was potential because Jabiru and Chalice... I mean, Jabiru I think had been identified as a 15 million barrel field, it's now done 105 million barrels and it's still going, Chalice I think was sort of 12 to 20 million barrels, it's now done 60 million barrels it's still going. Those projects gave us some confidence. The Timor Sea was a difficult area to actually interpret and understand and therefore there was potential and we talked about that at the time of the float but you never really expect to be that lucky.

ALAN KOHLER: And how much did you pay for it?

DAVID DIX: We paid 3.5 million vendor shares and a 1.25 per cent overriding royalty interest. We actually were meant to pay more...

ALAN KOHLER: That's almost nothing.

DAVID DIX: In retrospect it is, although it was a fair deal at the time and the parties we deal with are still good friends with us and they think at the time they got a reasonable deal. They were wanting to get into the North Sea, nobody really wanted to take on the field, it worked for us and we spent the money and took the risk and we've got the rewards.

ALAN KOHLER: What were the known reserves at the time?

DAVID DIX: It was uncertain when we first negotiated but we got Gaffney Cline in to come and do a reserve report which we funded personally, and it came out to around about 11 million barrels of P50 reserves at that point.

ALAN KOHLER: And what is it now?

DAVID DIX: Well in the next week or so, we're hoping that... we've probably got the potential to move up towards 100 million barrel fill. At the moment we've announced 40 million barrels of reserves in one portion of it, we've indicated that we've got a significant reserve base in the south west, we're becoming much more certain in relation to the size of that field and we'll be announcing something to that effect quite shortly.

ALAN KOHLER: Are any of the oil companies now coming along knocking on your door trying to take you over, to get it back?

DAVID DIX: No, none that have been involved in it before. We've had the occasional approach from parties that... obviously oil is very attractive particularly in our region where you've got black letter law, where you've got Tapis pricing, which is currently probably the highest pricing in the world and according to a lot of articles that are being written at the moment, it will stay at a premium to Brenton, a premium to WTI for quite some time, so it's a very attractive place to be, 'cause most new fields are being identified, are being... certainly happening in regions which are less politically stable than hopefully Australia is.

ALAN KOHLER: So do you think there will be, just leaving aside whether you sell out, do you think there will be consolidation in the oil industry in Australia?

DAVID DIX: I think there will be consolidation, and I mean, if you look in the cycles over the last 30 years, every time there is sort of a growth and a commodity price there has always been consolidation, there is a difficulty in getting capital equipment, there's a difficulty in getting good staff, those things can lead to a need to get bigger and to compete to acquire the capital equipment. We've been quite lucky, because of our size we've been able to buy a lot of second hand equipment, a lot of other things and we now have a lot of very good people coming to us to work for us, primarily because we've had a lot of growth and we're probably one of the greatest potential companies in the oil side of this stage a lot of people want to join, become part of it.

ALAN KOHLER: Are you now looking to use your script to buy other fields around the place, other companies?

DAVID DIX: I haven't actually had a lot of time to look at evaluating other companies because our field has grown so quickly, we really haven't had a lot of time for that type of activity.

ALAN KOHLER: You haven't needed to I guess either, have you? DAVID DIX: No, I think we are probably more likely be a target, and from my experience in acquisitions in this sort of market, it's very difficult to acquire things and get them at value, we know much more about what we have ourself than what other people have, we have a lot of growth where we are so we should be devoting our capital into growing the assets that we know best.

ALAN KOHLER: Do you think the success of Puffin indicates that the north west shelf could end up being a big oil field in general in addition to just gas?

DAVID DIX: That whole region does have a lot of potential, technology is improving all the time. And I suppose the thing is that in the last 20 years there has been a move away from that region, BHP left the region, went to gulf of Mexico, a lot of people are not investing a lot of money and time. I think that's changing, I think because there's a new lease of life that's happening there. There's a lot more activity and focus and with the oil price going up to sort of $70 plus it's a very profitable thing for people to do if they're successful.

ALAN KOHLER: Do you think that the oil price is going to keep rising, do you have a view about that and what about the proposition that the world's oil production has peaked?

DAVID DIX: There's so much oil coming from politically sensitive regions and if you look at what happened with the potential threat of an oil strike in Nigeria, the oil price spiked, there's a potential for weather conditions to occur in the Gulf of Mexico which would cause problems and the oil price will spike again, Venezuela has been becoming an issue, there's not a lot of new oil being found in regions which are politically stable or otherwise safe, so the margin between demand and supply is quite tight. As to whether, globally, Saudi Arabia or someone else can produce a lot more oil to balance it I think they're reasonably happy... there's a cartel where the oil price is at the moment and I don't think it sort of supports a lot of investment into biofuels and other things, there is that going to happen but an oil price of $70 is equivalent to at least how much it is going to cost to produce the alternate fuels, so I think it will stabilise at this level with the potential to go up if there's a change in the political environment in any of the regions where there is major oil being produced.

ALAN KOHLER: Thanks very much for joining us, David Dix.

DAVID DIX: Thank you.


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## jimski (6 July 2007)

Thanks for posting the interview.  I had seen it and am trying to understand exactly what Dix means in saying, "No, I think we are probably more likely be a target, and from my experience in acquisitions in this sort of market, *it's very difficult to acquire things and get them at value, *we know much more about what we have ourself than what other people have, we have a lot of growth where we are so we should be devoting our capital into growing the assets that we know best."

Thanks for any light anyone can shed on this...


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## aosleung (10 July 2007)

jimski said:


> Thanks for posting the interview.  I had seen it and am trying to understand exactly what Dix means in saying, "No, I think we are probably more likely be a target, and from my experience in acquisitions in this sort of market, *it's very difficult to acquire things and get them at value, *we know much more about what we have ourself than what other people have, we have a lot of growth where we are so we should be devoting our capital into growing the assets that we know best."
> 
> Thanks for any light anyone can shed on this...




Jimski,
Reading between the lines I think Dix is saying two things - (1) AED will not be in a rush to takeover another company because it's very difficult to accurately value companies in this industry...instead they are best to devote their time and money into growing AED which they are good at and (2) Given they are not the acquirer then any rumours would mean that AED could be a potential takeover target but at what price, nobody really knows.  He really can't be any more open than that otherwise, he will be seen as ramping up the share price.  Fingers crossed, hopefully AED will be a target and their SP goes up again.  I wonder what would happen to NWE's price if AED becomes a target?


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## nizar (16 July 2007)

AED looks like its about to break out of a triangle of sorts?
Hard to tell which way the break will be.

Decreased volume on the pullback is always good to see.

Has filled part of the gap to $7.70 but the gap between $7.70-$8.00 still remaind unfilled and should act as a great support level for any retrace.

Kennas (and others) any thoughts?


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## dj_420 (16 July 2007)

nizar

your right range is tightening and it is on much lower volume. i dont think we will see it drop down to the sp when it gapped up. with production imminent all it would take is an ann and we will see this triangle formation break up.

the good thing is AED has not retraced on heavy volume, heavy volume pushed it up and retraced slightly on lighter volume, good indication punters are willing to hold longer term (or longer than short term anyway).


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## BankRoller (17 July 2007)

I found an interesting article yesterday with respect to oil production in Asia over the coming months: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20070716/oil-commodities-asia.htm

Does anyone know when AED's first barrel is due?


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## imajica (19 July 2007)

price of oil extremely bullish at the moment pushing through the $75 dollar barrier overnight - should have a positive effect on the AED share price


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## greenfs (19 July 2007)

BankRoller said:


> I found an interesting article yesterday with respect to oil production in Asia over the coming months: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20070716/oil-commodities-asia.htm
> 
> Does anyone know when AED's first barrel is due?




A quick check on website and ann failed to reveal anything. From memory, I think initial production at 30k barrels daily is expected during 08/2007.


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## nizar (19 July 2007)

greenfs said:


> A quick check on website and ann failed to reveal anything. From memory, I think initial production at 30k barrels daily is expected during 08/2007.




Looks like its coming back to fill the gap.
If it goes down anymore than that, i would chop everything and run.

No time for dogs in a bullmarket.


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## gfresh (19 July 2007)

imajica: this is what  I would have thought, however just keeps going down at the moment which is interesting. There is never going to be a reduced demand for oil in the future either. 

Just doesn't seem to have the support at the $8.00 level. Volumes are quite low.  I'm down 10% on this one at the moment  guess bought in at a high which was a bit silly. Possible retrace to $7.60.


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## imajica (19 July 2007)

I managed to get some at $6.50 so not too worried at the moment

patience will be rewarded - first oil will happen soon, the instos will view AED as a bona fide producer and we will all be smiling


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## laurie (19 July 2007)

imajica said:


> price of oil extremely bullish at the moment pushing through the $75 dollar barrier overnight - should have a positive effect on the AED share price




Not while the A$ is hitting an all time high any price rise in oil needs the dollar to fall gee wished it was $75 a barrel a few months ago when the A$ was around .82c

cheers laurie


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## Penguinpays (21 July 2007)

Where is the front puffin….

Frontline sold the vessel to Sea productions 

Sea productions has 
FPSO Crystal Ocean
FPSO Front Puffin
M/V Sea Cat
MV/Sea Jaguar

11 July statement Sea production is a possible target of take over from “Ashmore” Investment Management limited.

The only thing that is clear is the FPSO Front puffin is HOT property at the moment.


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## imajica (24 July 2007)

after correcting and slumping to the high $7 range ($7.85-8) it appears that AED is on the move again - a possible mini-breakout - news could be imminent - I hope everyone is already set


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## imajica (27 July 2007)

SYDNEY, July 27 (Reuters) - Australian independent oil 
company AED Oil Ltd. said total production in 2008 could 
exceed 7.5 million barrels when it brings onstream another 
production well from the Puffin oilfield in the Timor Sea. 
AED is on track to produce its first oil in September from 
the Puffin oilfield, which is expected to peak at about 30,000 
barrels per day by the end of the year, Chairman David Dix told 
Reuters in an interview on Friday. 
The company also plans to bring online a second production 
well, the Puffin Southwest, in 2008, which would boost daily 
production by about 20,000 bpd. 
"Once we have the Southwest field up, we will have two fields 
in production ... we could actually do better than 7.5 million 
barrels when we bring Southwest into production," Dix said in a 
phone interview from the company's Melbourne office. 
Shares in AED, which has a market value of about A$834 
million ($729.7 million), have soared fourfold from a year 
earlier to Thursday's close of A$7.74. 
AED said in June that company was likely to have up to 100 
million barrels of recoverable oil in its 100 percent-owned 
Puffin and Talbot fields, up from an earlier estimate of 40 
million barrels. 
($1=1.14 Australian Dollar) 
((Reporting by Fayen Wong; Reuters Messaging: 
fayen.wong.reuters.net@reuters.com; +612 9373 1819)) 
Keywords: AED OUTLOOK/ 


Friday 27 July 2007 13:07:47 AEST 




News Story: AED - INTERVIEW-Australia AED sees 2008 output over 7.5 mln barrels


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## laurie (27 July 2007)

If that's true then the mind boggles on what the return could be the only variable we don't know is what price will Tapis be in 2008 given it's near $90 now $$$$

cheers laurie


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## jimski (28 July 2007)

This is a great stock and share price slipage on low volume is testament to that.  In simple terms the variables are fewer than with most companies.  We know the dates and we have estimates of the numbers.  Sales are virtually guaranteed and demand is in exhaustible.  I don't mean to pump but this surely has to go towards $20 by the second half of next year??


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## laurie (28 July 2007)

I cannot workout why people sold off AED  sell your misses & kids instead and keep AED 

cheers laurie


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## Areo (29 July 2007)

Possibly it is because of the lack of communication from the company in light of rumoured startup delays.

Areo


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## imajica (29 July 2007)

regardless of any slight delays - AED will be a cash cow for years - when full production is confirmed - it will be lift off time as this will be the moment when instos start buying up stock


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## imajica (31 July 2007)

AED Oil Raised to 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse :AED AU 

By Garth Hobson

Tokyo, July 25 (Bloomberg Data) -- AED Oil Ltd (AED AU) was raised to "outperform'' from "neutral'' by analyst Andrew Williams at Credit Suisse. The 12-month price target is A$9.80 per share.


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## gfresh (31 July 2007)

LOL

Their last statement was 'underperform' if I remember correctly.. This was about 2 weeks ago.


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## imajica (31 July 2007)

AED quarterly released after market close - first oil late August, early September - glad to be an AED holder!!


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## bigdog (1 August 2007)

AED 31/07/2007	 	Quarterly Activities Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00744516

AED Oil Limited (AED or Company) is pleased to present its June 2007 Quarterly Report.
The last quarter has once again been a productive and busy time for the Company, with concentration being on the objective for oil production. Whilst the unseasonal weather conditions experienced in northern Australia have caused some delays, the subsea installation is progressing well. The Company expects to commence oil production in late August or early September. With first oil production clearly in sight from Puffin North East, the Company is also developing plans to commence production from Puffin South West, with tentative first production from this region in the first half of 2008.

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE QUARTER
• Recoverable oil of 100 million barrels
• FPSO and installation on track
• Puffin-8 flow tested
• 40 million barrels of reserves for Puffin South West
• Acquisition of the Talbot Oil Field
• Marketing Agreement
• New staff appointments
• Increase in the Company’s financing facility

31/07/2007	Quarterly Cashflow Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00744452

Cash at end of quarter $18,166,000


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## jimski (1 August 2007)

Its all good news in the report.  No surpises, no shockers. Whats going on with the SP? I don't get it.


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## resourceboom (1 August 2007)

The surpising thing about this mini correction is the large swings stocks like AED are having from day to day in both directions.  I feel calm that this is short term, and the stock will easily come back above $8, esp with the oil price staying strong!!

If everything goes to plan and producing 25-30K by end of year, the current price is a bargain.


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## chops_a_must (1 August 2007)

resourceboom said:


> The surpising thing about this mini correction is the large swings stocks like AED are having from day to day in both directions.  I feel calm that this is short term, and the stock will easily come back above $8, esp with the oil price staying strong!!
> 
> If everything goes to plan and producing 25-30K by end of year, the current price is a bargain.




I think you can get them cheaper.

I free carried on the last breakout because I wasn't exactly happy (that would be putting it lightly) after talking with management. It eventually resulted in an argument about how stupid they thought I was, trying to convince me that the "wind" was the cause of a 3 month delay in production. The moron shut up after I said, "Mate, it's not even cyclone season up there yet." It was after this they released the first announcement on production delays when I questioned their ethics in letting journos know production schedules when they hadn't let the market know. The words, "continuous disclosure"... they didn't really like.

Anyway, got that over with. I'll be buying more when it fills that gap at 6.78 or there abouts...

The increase in debt also couldn't have been brought to market at a worse time... depending on your perspective of course...


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## questionall_42 (1 August 2007)

jimski said:


> Its all good news in the report.  No surpises, no shockers. Whats going on with the SP? I don't get it.




Not surprising that there are profit takers in AED - if you would have bought a year ago (31/7/06 EOD - $1.44; 1/8/06 $1.72 EOD), then you would be sitting on some nice little profits.  And what better time to sell than when the sky is caving in.

Bit of perspective required at times like this.  Trying to understand daily fluctuations is notoriously difficult.


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## jimski (2 August 2007)

I'm in at just under $2.  Sold to hold free but will definitely hang on to what I have left.  I agree with Imajica re Instos coming in once production is up, running and problem free.


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## bigdog (2 August 2007)

Are there any explanations for the SP drop today to $6.80 and down 8.36% after reaching a high of $7.55????

Is there some bad news coming about production delays??

 AED   	$6.80  	   	  -$0.62   	  -8.36%   	high of $7.55 low of 	 $6.63  	 665,411 shares 	 $4,763,130  	 02-Aug 16:10:51

Date.......  	Close  	Volume  
01-Aug-07	 7.42 	547,274
31-Jul-07	 7.90 	281,840
30-Jul-07	 7.63 	147,034
27-Jul-07	 7.73 	457,260
26-Jul-07	 8.03 	157,200
25-Jul-07	 8.06 	331,123
24-Jul-07	 8.14 	391,523


They have plenty of cash as reported Tuesday!
31/07/2007 Quarterly Cashflow Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsID=00744452

Cash at end of quarter $18,166,000


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## spottygoose (2 August 2007)

I think you might find your answer here (mind you I think there was a ridiculous over-reaction but hey it is a volitile market):

UBS Investment Research 

AED Oil Limited 

June ’07 Qtr: Puffin start up expected Sept 

Puffin installation capex increase: AED had no production over the June’07 qtr, but is expecting to start oil production late August - Sept at the 100% owned (pre royalties) Puffin oil field (NE1) located, 700km west of Darwin. We have assumed a mid Sept start up. AED has also agreed to assume a larger portion of the installation costs, increasing Puffin forecast capex to A$85m over the Sept qtr.

EPS fcst changes: ‘07FY +0.5cps, ‘08FY -4.6%, ‘09FY +1.3%: We have increased our AED 2007FY EPS by 0.5 cps. However, our 2008FY EPS forecast has reduced 4.6% due to the higher capex and field start up delay. Our 2009FY EPS forecast has risen 1.3%.

Neutral 2 rating maintained: We continue to see project and reserves delivery risk in AED. The Puffin Project is not yet complete, and we see potential for further capex increases. In addition, we are concerned that AED is prematurely promoting 100 million barrels of recoverable oil reserves that is not firm and is highly dependant on the results of future drilling and making the economics stack up (Talbot).

Valuation: NAV A$5.29 (prior A$5.38) based on DCF @ 10%. Our AED share price target is A$8.13 (prior A$8.22). This reflects our base valuation of oil reserves in Puffin Main (NE1), NE2 and SW1 or A$5.29/share, plus our assessment of reserves upside, which is below AED’s expectation.


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## Santoro (3 August 2007)

The swiss are strange...a fair difference between UBS and Credit Suisse. Maybe Credit Suisse holding and UBS looking to buy?


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## Santoro (3 August 2007)

imajica said:


> AED Oil Raised to 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse :AED AU
> 
> By Garth Hobson
> 
> Tokyo, July 25 (Bloomberg Data) -- AED Oil Ltd (AED AU) was raised to "outperform'' from "neutral'' by analyst Andrew Williams at Credit Suisse. The 12-month price target is A$9.80 per share.





I was of course referring to this. Still with oil at near record prices and AED Oil still to come on line in the short term, if oil was to make new records perhaps these extra costs may not be as significant.


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## bigdog (3 August 2007)

Must assume that more borrowings are required for the third quarter payments for development/exploration costs!!!

The June qtr payments for development/exploration $80,026 represents 76% of the full year total of $113,992.

--------------------------------------------- Jun Qtr ---- Year to date
--------------------------------------------------------- (12 months)
1.20 Cash at beginning of quarter/year to date $86,490 .... $13,673

1.2 Payments for b) development/exploration.. $(80,026) .. $(113,992)

1.16 Proceeds from borrowings .....................$14,772 .... $129,878

1.22 Cash at end of quarter ........................ $18,166 ..... $18,166

** table excludes $ for admin, interest and other minor items

31/07/2007 Quarterly Cashflow Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00744452


----------



## sfx (6 August 2007)

Any ideas of why the large share slump, given that first oil is just around the corner?! Or is this just current market sentiment of those who have held early, to dump shares whilst they are still making a profit ?!


----------



## imajica (7 August 2007)

just market sentiment at the moment - it has turned to s**t after the horror display from Wall Street - will bounce back over the next few weeks - sentiment always eventually turns - time to top up existing holdings if you have any spare cash


----------



## greenfs (9 August 2007)

Just put the script in your bottom drawer and stop worrying about the sp weakness. It will come back big time given time, especially when northern hemisphere is into winter and AED is chugging out 30k barrels per day


----------



## laurie (9 August 2007)

Remember *LIGHT SWEET CRUDE* at Tapis prices which are at a premium  

cheers laurie


----------



## imajica (20 August 2007)

ASX Announcement

20 August 20
07
AED and MODEC Sign Agreement

For Provision of a Second FPSO
AED Oil Limited (AED or the Company) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a Time Charter Agreement (Letter of Intent) (LOI) with MODEC Inc (Elang EPS Pte Ltd) for the provision of an FPSO, the MODEC Venture 1 (MV1). This key agreement, together with planned drilling and development, will enable production from the Puffin South West (Puffin SW) region in the first half of 2008. The simulated initial production rate for the Puffin SW region is in excess of 25,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd). In the meantime, the Front Puffin FPSO, which will receive the production from the Puffin NE region, is undergoing final preparation and is due to arrive at Puffin field in September 2007.
The MODEC FPSO, which previously operated at Elang/Kakatua, was identified as a suitable vessel for the development of the Puffin SW field. Discussions with MODEC have been occurring for some time, and the operating conditions at the Elang/Kakatua field are not dissimilar to Puffin SW. The facilities at the Elang/Kakatua field, including mooring, flowlines, umbilicals and risers, will be redeployed and installed by MODEC at the Puffin SW field as part of the FPSO Agreement. The MV1 has a production capacity of approximately 32,000 bopd and storage capacity of 750,000 barrels. The Elang/Kakatua field is now in the process of being decommissioned. The MV1 has been operating at Elang/Kakatua for nine years and, prior to that, at the Skua field for five years.
The agreement is for a fixed term of three years, with two by one year option periods at AED’s election. The vessel will undergo some minor modifications and maintenance prior to commencing work for AED.
On 2 July 2007, the Company announced a 40 million Barrel Contingent Resource for the Puffin SW region. The Puffin SW region was first drilled and flow tested at high rates by Puffin-2 (1974 by ARCO). Puffin-9 was drilled by AED in 2006, confirming the quality and continuity of the SW, and proving the extent of the accumulation. AED intends to commence drilling a bilateral appraisal/development well (Puffin-10) in October 2007. The well is in design stage; however, based on reservoir simulation supported by the well testing data from Puffin-2, the Puffin-10 well is simulated to flow at an initial rate in the range of 25,000 to 32,000 bopd.
MODEC, which is the world’s major FPSO owner, and owning and operating 17 FPSOs, will supply the MV1, complete the installation program and operate the FPSO during production at Puffin SW.
The Agreement with MODEC facilitates the commencement of the Puffin SW development. Following the drilling of the Puffin-10 bilateral well, the installation works will commence. The MV1 is expected to be on station at Puffin-10 toward the end of the first quarter 2008, with production commencing shortly thereafter.




60,000 Bopd by mid 2008

don't think this news has quite sunk in yet


----------



## bhutos (20 August 2007)

heh.. talk about bad timing, It's been on my watchlist and i've seen it tumble over the previous month or so, I've been going over several of the mid size oil stocks today looking at the fundamentals and looking to get in while they're down... bleh.. no point now i've mssed 20% heheh. Congrats.


----------



## gdzack (20 August 2007)

bhutos said:


> heh.. talk about bad timing, It's been on my watchlist and i've seen it tumble over the previous month or so, I've been going over several of the mid size oil stocks today looking at the fundamentals and looking to get in while they're down... bleh.. no point now i've mssed 20% heheh. Congrats.




U'r lucky not getting in at the wrong time. I got in too early and there's still more than 10% loss at the moment. The last few weeks I just spent my time watching it drop lower and lower.


----------



## rooster6 (20 August 2007)

gdzack said:


> U'r lucky not getting in at the wrong time. I got in too early and there's still more than 10% loss at the moment. The last few weeks I just spent my time watching it drop lower and lower.




Can't believe it.. Sold on Friday for a couple grand loss and then the US goes bananas on Friday night and now a good announcement..


----------



## imajica (22 August 2007)

why would u sell so close to production? the market was always going to bounce back - not too late to buy back in


----------



## EZZA (22 August 2007)

when's aed going into production?  you guys reckon, aed is well undervalued?

just thinking about dumping awe for aed.  been watching aed for a while.

currently holding awe and nxs for my oil and gas stocks.


----------



## imajica (22 August 2007)

aed will be producing 30,000 barrels a day of tapis crude from next month

they will be getting another rig mid 2008 and ramp up production to 60,000 barrels a day

this is huge


----------



## gfresh (23 August 2007)

As oil grows scarcer and scarcer, and the middle east uses it more and more as a political weapon against much of the western world, as they dicate who has access to this dwindling supply, and at what price, this will shoot to the moon. I think having companies like this making good money off our very own shore is going to be very valuable indeed in the next 2-5+ years. We will move away from oil eventually (10 years+), but before/when the shock comes it will be good to be sitting on something like this. The US can boom or bust, and we can as well, but long term, oil is still the lubrication that keeps economies ticking over. 

Speaking of which, maybe it's time for me to buy back in


----------



## sfx (23 August 2007)

Good point GFresh - which reminds me - for all those interested, watch a movie/documentary called "A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash". A negative spin put on the whole oil scenario, but without the dramatics of say a Michael Moore et al. Very factual.....

Fingers crossed with Puffin !


----------



## bigdog (24 August 2007)

AED lines up second Puffin FPSO
Tuesday, 21 August 2007
http://www.petroleumnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=103684&sectionsource=s0

TIMOR Sea petroleum developer AED Oil has entered into an agreement with Modec Inc for the provision of a floating processing, storage and offtake vessel, the Modec Venture 1, which will be the second FPSO working AED's Puffin fields.

The MODEC Venture 1 FPSO at Elang/Kakatua

"This key agreement, together with planned drilling and development, will enable production from the Puffin South West region in the first half of 2008," AED said.

"The simulated initial production rate for the Puffin SW region is in excess of 25,000 barrels of oil per day.

"In the meantime, the Front Puffin FPSO, which will receive the production from the Puffin NE region, is undergoing final preparation and is due to arrive at Puffin field in September."

The operating conditions at the Elang-Kakatua field are not dissimilar to Puffin SW, and the Modec FPSO, which previously operated for Santos at Elang-Kakatua in Indonesia, was identified as being suitable for the development of the Puffin SW, AED said.

"The facilities at the Elang-Kakatua field, including mooring, flowlines, umbilicals and risers, will be redeployed and installed by Modec at the Puffin SW field as part of the FPSO agreement," AED said.

The MV1 has a production capacity of about 32,000bpd and storage capacity of 750,000 barrels.

The Elang-Kakatua field is being decommissioned. The MV1 has been operating at Elang-Kakatua for nine years and, before that, at the Skua field for five years.

The agreement is for a fixed term of three years, with two one-year option periods at AED's choice. The vessel will have minor modifications and maintenance before starting work for AED.

Last month, AED announced a 40 million barrel contingent resource for the Puffin SW region, which was first drilled and flow-tested at high rates in 1972 by Arco's Puffin-2 well.

In 2006, AED drilled Puffin-9, confirming the quality and continuity of Puffin SW, and proving the extent of the accumulation.

AED plans to start drilling a bilateral appraisal-development well (Puffin-10) in October 2007.

Based on reservoir simulation supported by the well testing data from Puffin-2, Puffin-10 is simulated to flow at an initial rate of 25,000 to 32,000bpd.

Modec, which owns and operates 17 FPSOs, will supply the MV1, complete the installation program and operate the FPSO during production at Puffin SW.

After drilling the Puffin-10 bilateral well, the installation works will begin.

The MV1 is expected to be on station at Puffin-10 toward the end of the first quarter of 2008, with production starting shortly thereafter.


----------



## imajica (27 August 2007)

just hit $7.60 up almost 6% in the first few minutes of trade

with the platform almost at the site - AED will surge over the next few weeks


----------



## dj_420 (4 September 2007)

AED oil starting to look the goods, FPSO has arrived, final outfitting then it will be first oil flows. once the oil is flowing i believe there will be a big re-rating on this one, as a producer we could see AED move up into a different position concerning leverage from brokers and the like.

looking forward to first oil!



> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...163-643,00.html
> 
> 
> AED ship comes in off WA coast
> ...


----------



## bigdog (4 September 2007)

ASX ann today; AED is on their way forward.

04/09/2007	Company and Project Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00756061

ASX Announcement
4 September 2007
General update

*Oil Marketing*
AED (AED or the Company) is please to announce that the Company’s crude oil marketer, TOTAL Trading Asia Pte Ltd (TOTAL) has sold the first cargo of Puffin crude oil (being a parcel of 300,000 barrels). The crude oil shipment has been sold to an east coast Australian refinery, priced at a premium to APPI Tapis. Under the AED marketing agreement with TOTAL the sale will be on an FOB (Free on Board) basis. Offtake is scheduled for the second half of October.

*FPSO Arrival in Australia*
The FPSO ‘Front Puffin’ has arrived in Australian waters. Installation works are well advanced at the Puffin Field. Weather conditions have been favorable over the last few weeks, with good conditions also predicted for the forecast period. First oil production is scheduled for late September 2007.

*ASX All Australian Index Inclusion*
The Company is pleased to announce that it has recently been included in the S&P/ASX All Australian 200 (effective from 28 August 2007).


----------



## laurie (4 September 2007)

AED could be in the S&P/ASX All Australian 100 early next year  a P/E ratio of between 3-5 should bring smiles to investors

cheers laurie


----------



## jimski (6 September 2007)

I'm amazed by some of the doubting posters on AED that I read in this thread.  I don't want to be accused of pumping but just look at all the facts on AED....  The company has barely put a foot wrong and is delivering on promises on time and to the letter.  This is entirely my personal opinion but I see this going $15+  A buy at 8 bucks is still a deal.  Dix is a very very clever guy and he is not playing games and wasting his valuable career fooling around with something that aint gonna work.  Excepting massive crash in oil prices this is a winner.

DYOR etc etc
Just my opinion


----------



## dj_420 (6 September 2007)

jimski said:


> I'm amazed by some of the doubting posters on AED that I read in this thread.  I don't want to be accused of pumping but just look at all the facts on AED....  The company has barely put a foot wrong and is delivering on promises on time and to the letter.  This is entirely my personal opinion but I see this going $15+  A buy at 8 bucks is still a deal.  Dix is a very very clever guy and he is not playing games and wasting his valuable career fooling around with something that aint gonna work.  Excepting massive crash in oil prices this is a winner.
> 
> DYOR etc etc
> Just my opinion




i have never doubted this stock! 

this is the only oiler i hold, AED with a second FPSO could be pumping 60 000 barrels per day! 

analysts expecting a PE of around 3-5 next year, this one is a sleeper that will wake up when first oil begins. as i have said before a lot of institutions are waiting to enter this one WHEN first oil begins.

that will officially mark the explorer to producer transition, at that point i would expect some quite heavy buying. this is the point where risk would dramatically reduce, once they get the second field online also we will see the risk become diversified as they will have two projects pumping oil.

and from yesterdays action i would suggest some of that buying has begun, two crossed trades totalling 3 million shares worth $22.2 million, good luck longs.


----------



## Sean K (6 September 2007)

jimski said:


> This is entirely my personal opinion but I see this going $15+  A buy at 8 bucks is still a deal.



Jimski, you can not place price targets without analysis even if it is 'just your opinion'. 

Please read the ASF policy on posting price targets, and on ramping.

Thanks, kennas


----------



## bigdog (6 September 2007)

*Top 200 or Top 300!!!*

*ASX ann today by Standard & Poor’s *:
AED  	8:27 AM  	   	SandP Announces September SP/ASX Index Rebalance
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00756682

S&P/ASX 300 ADDITIONS
AED AED OIL LIMITED

*AED reported yesterday*
04/09/2007 Company and Project Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsID=00756061
ASX All Australian Index Inclusion
The Company is pleased to announce that it has recently been included in the S&P/ASX All Australian 200 (effective from 28 August 2007).


----------



## laurie (6 September 2007)

dj_420 said:


> and from yesterdays action i would suggest some of that buying has begun, two crossed trades totalling 3 million shares worth $22.2 million, good luck longs.




That was Dix & Co selling to exercise their options good indication of where this is going.

cheers laurie


----------



## jimski (7 September 2007)

Kennas - sorry - did not mean to pump AED.  Just got over excited and I will back up my assertions in future.  

Laurie - can you expand on your thoughts please?  In spite of recent apparent selling by the BOD I would have thought that Dix will hold for the most part until this goes higher and he will then sell the company to a bigger player??  Am I missing something?


----------



## darrenaf (7 September 2007)

jimski said:


> Laurie - can you expand on your thoughts please?  In spite of recent apparent selling by the BOD I would have thought that Dix will hold for the most part until this goes higher and he will then sell the company to a bigger player??  Am I missing something?




"AED Oil Limited (AED) advises that on 5 September 2007, Executive Chairman Mr David Dix
and Managing Director Dr Kenneth Tregonning together sold 3 million AED shares on market to
fund the exercise of options in the Company.
Mr Dix and Dr Tregonning have confirmed that the decision to sell this portion of their
holdings in AED was necessary to fund the exercise of options in the Company. The exercise
of these options is required pursuant to a financing agreement between the Company’s
financiers and the Company whereby Mr Dix, Dr Tregonning undertook to exercise the options.
Mr Dix said, “We remain fully committed to AED Oil, and confirm that we have no intentions
to sell any additional AED shares ahead of first oil”."


----------



## laurie (8 September 2007)

jimski said:


> Kennas - sorry - did not mean to pump AED.  Just got over excited and I will back up my assertions in future.
> 
> Laurie - can you expand on your thoughts please?  In spite of recent apparent selling by the BOD I would have thought that Dix will hold for the most part until this goes higher and he will then sell the company to a bigger player??  Am I missing something?




There you go Darren done it for me....Dix may sell BUT AED will be a cash cow if you take 60,000 boo/day x US$90 x 365 =  that's almost $2billion take cost out of that say $500m leaves $1.5B divided that by 120m shares approx on issue 
need I say more

cheers laurie


----------



## resourceboom (8 September 2007)

Turn it up mate!! 

What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc

Sure if production goes to schedule AED should still be undervalued, but think your figures are misleading!!



laurie said:


> 60,000 boo/day x US$90 x 365 =  that's almost $2billion take cost out of that say $500m leaves $1.5B divided that by 120m shares approx on issue


----------



## laurie (8 September 2007)

resourceboom said:


> Turn it up mate!!
> 
> What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc
> 
> Sure if production goes to schedule AED should still be undervalued, but think your figures are misleading!!




misleading!! prove it then if you think that what I said is misleading  I'm  not here to MISLEAD anyone these are my views you can chose to believe them or not they are ball park figures I don't have access to company sensitive figures

cheers laurie


----------



## imajica (8 September 2007)

here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic

as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!

AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!


----------



## laurie (8 September 2007)

imajica said:


> here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic
> 
> as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!
> 
> AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!




I stand to be corrected but it was mentioned somewhere[for the love of me I cannot find it] that Dix would like to return on the first dividend at least equal to or greater than the IPO price of .85c then I will be free carried 

cheers laurie


----------



## resourceboom (9 September 2007)

Imajica, I don't want to get personal, but if you cant handle seeing any constructive criticism of a valuation, maybe you should just stick to HC.  I agree AED is a lot better fundamentall than many stocks out there, I just disagree with Lauries valuation!

Laurie, I think I proved it with my line
"What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc" which you took no consideration of in your valuation.  Ok, if not misleading, I believe it to be very unrealistic!

Good luck anyway with AED, as it is my largest holding, I hope everything goes smoothly!!



imajica said:


> here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic
> 
> as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!
> 
> AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!


----------



## laurie (9 September 2007)

resourceboom said:


> Imajica, I don't want to get personal, but if you cant handle seeing any constructive criticism of a valuation, maybe you should just stick to HC.  I agree AED is a lot better fundamentall than many stocks out there, I just disagree with Lauries valuation!
> 
> Laurie, I think I proved it with my line
> "What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc" which you took no consideration of in your valuation.  Ok, if not misleading, I believe it to be very unrealistic!
> ...




Ok lets look at it this way

When fully operational early next year 60,000 boo/day
we are at a premium to Tapies say A$100 roughly if not more by then
take that over a year = $2.2B
now take out costs which I said about $500m which includes your above quote re taxes which only leaves the argument of the costs involved OK lets say $700m that leaves $1.5B where am I going wrong 

cheers laurie


----------



## GREENS (9 September 2007)

laurie said:


> Ok lets look at it this way
> 
> When fully operational early next year 60,000 boo/day
> we are at a premium to Tapies say A$100 roughly if not more by then
> ...




Laurie can I just say you work entirely on the fact that AED will have smooth transition to production, they have not even produced any oil and are as yet to prove themselves as producer (which is potentially a major concern). Many oil fields in recent times have struggled to achieve and maintain field production at their target levels. This is in no way stating that AED can’t achieve this, but is probably why it trades at a discount, because it has yet to prove its worth to the market as a producer. And yes if everything does go smoothly, then AED is a fundamentally undervalued oiler that will be generating considerably large cash flows. The company may even exceed expectations, who knows, but I think valuing a company without taking into consideration a more conservative view can be very misleading. What happens if oil falls to $40 a barrel next year? It’s probably more sensible to use $US70 a barrel this year and over the following years slowly trend towards a lower average prive (say $50) then find the PV of future cash flows and then see what value you get!


----------



## laurie (9 September 2007)

Fair enough time will tell I'll be very disappointed if this does not propel the sp way past $9 on first oil flow then again I'm biased 

cheers laurie


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 September 2007)

GREENS said:


> Many oil fields in recent times have struggled to achieve and maintain field production at their target levels.



Can't argue with that one. It's a rather major problem worldwide.



> It’s probably more sensible to use $US70 a barrel this year and over the following years slowly trend towards a lower average prive (say $50) then find the PV of future cash flows and then see what value you get!



It could be argued that $50 is more likely a worst case minimum price and that the company might be better off delaying production and selling at $100+ given the global trends in oil consumption, discovery and field development.

I remember having great trouble in early 2004 convincing a large ASX listed company which was using oil to fire furnaces, boilers etc that oil would exceed $40 at any time within the next 30 years. In 2005 they decided to convert to gas in what could politely be described as a hurry...


----------



## laurie (9 September 2007)

I think NWE may have more info on what returns AED will give since their income is based on royalties from AED to be honest I don't know if its out of ground boo or refinery output 

cheers laurie


----------



## imajica (9 September 2007)

globally we are finding far less oil than we are consuming - the oil price will remain strong for decades as demand will consistently outstrip supply - the rapidly expanding economies of China, India etc will ensure that any asx- listed large scale oil producer will shine for years to come - AED's puffin field is coming on line at the perfect time - the oil is being sold above Tapis grade prices - show me another 'green chip' oil stock of this calibre on the ASX - there isn't one - you either have Woodside or Santos etc respresenting the Blue Chip Brigade and a host of penny dreadfuls - ROC and AWE and PSA are fairly credible however for projected cashflows - AED is king!!


----------



## imajica (12 September 2007)

with a strong lead from wall street we should see a surge today in stocks with solid fundamentals such as AED

only a few weeks from pumping that Tapis crude


----------



## The Mint Man (18 September 2007)

Hey guys,
I posted the following in the OSH thread but I think that this would be of interest to you as well because AED was mentioned/shown on the programe.

If you missed Lateline Business last night then you will want to watch it here http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200709/r184144_683326.asx
OSH was the lead story, first up and got quite a wrap... very good exposure I think I will be holding on for the ride somehow
Just so you know, the link above is for broadband, windows media player.

If your not the video type though I have supplied the transcript below



> *Shares in Oil Search surge*​
> Australian Broadcasting Corporation
> Broadcast: 17/09/2007
> Reporter: Neal Woolrich
> ...




Let us know your thoughts.

Cheers


----------



## laurie (18 September 2007)

Thanks Mint Man for the link it's nice to know that AED is a "Niche Operator" 

cheers laurie


----------



## bigdog (19 September 2007)

AED   	$7.82  	   	  +$0.20   	  +2.62%  	high of $7.86   	 154,806 shares $1,201,524  	@ 19-Sep 11:38:05


ASX ann today
19/09/2007	Puffin NE Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00760558

*Puffin North East Development Update - FPSO Connected to the Mooring-Riser*

AED Oil Ltd has taken a major step towards achieving First Oil production from its 100 per cent owned Puffin North East oil field in the Timor Sea. The Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel Front Puffin has successfully connected to the mooring-riser system in preparation for commencing production. The mooring-riser system holds the FPSO on location, as well as connecting the subsea system to the vessel.

Installation of the subsea sytems is now complete. Hydro-testing of the subsea system and the controls is presently underway. Initial testing results has identified that a seal and a connector require replacement. The diving vessel is presently on route to Darwin to change over the diving crew and to restock supplies. Upon its return to the field the remedial work is expected to take approximately one week. Accordingly AED is on track for First Oil around the end of this month.

Further to the ASX Release on 6 September 2007 David Dix (Executive Chairman) and related entities has exercised 18,163,192 options in AED and Ken Tregonning (Managing Director) and related entities has exercised 13,703,290 options in the Company.


----------



## dj_420 (19 September 2007)

been waiting for this for a while, barring no delays we could have production within a week!

good stuff to all longs

IMO production will bring about a major re-rating as this will decrease risk and funds may start buying in due to production status


----------



## laurie (19 September 2007)

dj_420 said:


> been waiting for this for a while, barring no delays we could have production within a week!
> 
> good stuff to all longs
> 
> IMO production will bring about a major re-rating as this will decrease risk and funds may start buying in due to production status




Yep jumped on @ .85c with IPO hope that it's smooth sailing from here with blue skies and clear water ahead I hope Dix & Co. would use some of their cash to go on a shopping spree 

cheers laurie


----------



## bucko (19 September 2007)

AED is now listed on Commsec's most popular stock as a buy

CommSec Most Popular Stocks 19 Sept 2007
  Sells  
  BHP  
  RIO  
  ANZ  
  MBL  
  CBA  
  IPL  
 Buys   
 PBL   
 QBE   
 ABS   
 NAB   
 AED   
 WSA   

 This is what I have been waiting to see.

ps: I IPO'd this stock.  

Bucko


----------



## champ2003 (19 September 2007)

bucko said:


> AED is now listed on Commsec's most popular stock as a buy
> 
> CommSec Most Popular Stocks 19 Sept 2007
> Sells
> ...




Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.


----------



## The Mint Man (19 September 2007)

champ2003 said:


> Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.



Im not sure what the IPO price was but I doubt he cares if AED was only on there for one day..... hes probably cleaned up so he has room to move while he waits for it to go up further. Right?

Cheers


----------



## laurie (19 September 2007)

champ2003 said:


> Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.




Commsec and ANZ were the lead managers for the IPO                                                        

cheers laurie


----------



## darrenaf (20 September 2007)

With so many anticipating good news is just around the corner, its reassuring to see Dix & Tregonning exercise 31 million options.  I know they had to do this as part of a previous agreement, but does anyone know of any time limits they had for doing this?


----------



## imajica (20 September 2007)

were a massive stack of sellers capping it at $8 - just stepped away for a few moments from the computer and  wham! huge load of buyers stepping in -


----------



## bigdog (20 September 2007)

AED SP look great up 24 cents today
AED   	8.14  	  0.240   	  3.04%   	with high of	8.20  	256,953 shares  	$2,061,073  @	20-Sep 12:53:19 PM

 52-wk High	9.0200


----------



## laurie (20 September 2007)

bigdog said:


> AED SP look great up 24 cents today
> AED   	8.14  	  0.240   	  3.04%   	with high of	8.20  	256,953 shares  	$2,061,073  @	20-Sep 12:53:19 PM
> 
> 52-wk High	9.0200




I'm still cannot understand why would you sell so close  if you hang on for a week or so you will get more! tell you what someone has balls 

cheers laurie


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## imajica (26 September 2007)

there have been rumours circulating over at 'the other place' that there could be takeover speculation regarding AED oil by one of the major oilers


the rumour is unsubstantiated but if anyone could shed some light, that would be great


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## laurie (26 September 2007)

imajica said:


> there have been rumours circulating over at 'the other place' that there could be takeover speculation regarding AED oil by one of the major oilers
> 
> 
> the rumour is unsubstantiated but if anyone could shed some light, that would be great




lol if that was true it would have been well over $10 by now and DD holding a sizable amount would want premium price for AED

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (26 September 2007)

Look at todays SP up 29 cents and getting closer to all time high of $9.02

Currently AED   $8.46  	   	  +$0.20   	  +2.42% with high of  $8.50  	 $8.25  	 224,138 shares $1,883,376 @ 	 26-Sep 15:00:54

52-wk High	9.0200
52-wk Low	3.1300

Who is DD?


----------



## Aargh! (26 September 2007)

DD = David Dix Chairman AED.................................
Anyone sure when we will get first oil?


----------



## imajica (26 September 2007)

end of this month or early October (first week)

massive buyer of nearly 65000 shares at 8.47 - the sense of urgency coupled with the relatively few shares on offer will work favourably for existing AED holders


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## gfresh (27 September 2007)

Should jump fairly well once the 'first oil' ann comes out.. 

I believe then we will see it break the $8.50-$8.80 resistance mark convincingly.

Possibly the same buyer in again accumulating for 55,000 at $8.480 as I read the que tonight?

Still significantly underpriced IMO, as I believe the oil price may well top $120+ a barrel in the next 5 years based on demand from India and China. 100 million barrels estimated x say avg. $100 barrel = lots of money. Market cap at the moment is about $1bn

Obviously processing costs will be incurred, however the profit margin on oil is usually pretty good


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## bigdog (28 September 2007)

gfresh said:


> Should jump fairly well once the 'first oil' ann comes out..
> 
> I believe then we will see it break the $8.50-$8.80 resistance mark convincingly.




No announcement yet!

But look at the share price today  +$0.45   	  +5.29%   

 AED   	$8.95  	   	  +$0.45   	  +5.29%   	  374,252 shares  	 $3,263,456  	@ 28-Sep 12:41:44

52-wk High 9.0200
52-wk Low 3.1300


----------



## imajica (28 September 2007)

will be interesting to  witness the last hour of trade

people will be scrambling to get stock on anticipation of first oil announcement early next week - my prediction is that it will close strongly


----------



## darrenaf (28 September 2007)

These are very encouraging signs indeed.  Looks like a far more stable platform now to build on with a nice steady increase over the past week or so as opposed to jumping from $7.40 to $9.02 on news of 100million barrels before plummeting back down to under $8 a week later.  Oil can't be far away now...


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## ta2693 (1 October 2007)

imajica said:


> will be interesting to  witness the last hour of trade
> 
> people will be scrambling to get stock on anticipation of first oil announcement early next week - my prediction is that it will close strongly




As you predicted Imajica, the interests on AED is accumulating. Today record a new high this year $9.25,blue sky is ahead of us. All signs indicate the coming first oil announcement is going to be a good news.


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## Aargh! (1 October 2007)

ta2693 are you basing your predictions just on the share price movement? Was a strong close up 10% for the day. Hopefully announcement comes soon but not too soon as I still want to accumulate a few more


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## bigdog (1 October 2007)

Amazing today with SP   +$0.95   	  +10.73% 

 AED   	$9.80  	   	  +$0.95   	  +10.73%   	 with all time HIGH $9.80  	 413,808  shares	 $3,787,656  	@  01-Oct 16:10:55


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## michael_selway (1 October 2007)

bigdog said:


> Amazing today with SP   +$0.95   	  +10.73%
> 
> AED   	$9.80  	   	  +$0.95   	  +10.73%   	 with all time HIGH $9.80  	 413,808  shares	 $3,787,656  	@  01-Oct 16:10:55




Does anyoen know the mine life of AED might be now?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -4.2 -12.2 199.5 154.1 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *


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## bigdog (1 October 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Does anyoen know the mine life of AED might be now?
> 
> thx
> 
> ...




Michael

Does anyoen know the mine life of AED might be now?

 - AED is OIL and not mining


There must be ANN due very soon! 	

I hold AED


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## michael_selway (1 October 2007)

bigdog said:


> Michael
> 
> Does anyoen know the mine life of AED might be now?
> 
> ...




Hi yes they "mine oil"  but how many years will the proven reserves run out at full production pa?

thx

MS


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## laurie (1 October 2007)

Fantastic run up to first oil now a 10 bagger for me from IPO of .85c up .95c today on what can only be FPSO receiving OIL 

cheers laurie


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## Icharus (1 October 2007)

Hi Michael,
              AED has recently annouced 100mmbls in reserves although this is not 2p, I believe that the company will reaffirm these reserves when the puffin NE field flows commercially.

So if their estimate for field size is correct then at 30,000bls/day on 334day/year run equals 10mmbls. Production is forecast to go to 60,000 /day mid next year so it is probably fair to say 5 to 7 years at best without new discoveries and good field recovery

I was interested in your figures for EPS. Where did you get them from? 
AED is forecasting operating a second well by mid 08 so I would have thought that 08/09 EPS should have been higher than 07/08.

Should be an interesting ride if the wells perform as expected.
Tight registry, Mkt cap near 1500 million is comparable to PPX which is in the S&P 100 index could force insto's to have to hold them which will create additional demand.

cheers and DYOR

Icharus


----------



## michael_selway (1 October 2007)

Icharus said:


> Hi Michael,
> AED has recently annouced 100mmbls in reserves although this is not 2p, I believe that the company will reaffirm these reserves when the puffin NE field flows commercially.
> 
> So if their estimate for field size is correct then at 30,000bls/day on 334day/year run equals 10mmbls. Production is forecast to go to 60,000 /day mid next year so it is probably fair to say 5 to 7 years at best without new discoveries and good field recovery
> ...




Oh ic, 5-7 years isnt too much actually. those figures are consensus forecasts from a few brokers (taken from COMSEC). I think the 08/09 EPS is lower because of the lower oil price forecast assumption for that year etc

thx

MS


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## Icharus (2 October 2007)

Hi All

The challenge in valuing AED is what type of discount do you place the earnings.

Typically I have used PE of 10 as a benchmark which would value AED at 19 to $20 sp but I suspect the market is going to have a lower valuation. 

Zinifex has about 7 year mine life ect and is valued at around 6 to 8 times last time I looked so if we took a similar attitude maybe AED is worth 12 to 16 sp on the brokers consensus. 

Those brokers forecast do seem a little light on. It is hard to imagine that the price of oil is going to fall in half which is what they are concluding if AED is going to double production next year and yet have no increase in earnings. 

The other factor is when AED earns $300 million plus per year but doesn't give dividends that is a lot of cash to use for exploration you would expect there to be some success thereby increasing resource life as they go.

Cheers Icharus


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## resourceboom (2 October 2007)

"Oh ic, 5-7 years isnt too much actually. those figures are consensus forecasts from a few brokers (taken from COMSEC). I think the 08/09 EPS is lower because of the lower oil price forecast assumption for that year etc"

Turn it up 
What is the revenue over 5-7 years or 100MB ??  hmm approx 6-7 Billion revenue, plus they have some very large exploration targets.

Those broker forecasts (taken from COMSEC) would most likely not include the new plan of concurrently producing from the N and S as of mid next year!!


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## imajica (2 October 2007)

puffin might only have 7 or 8 years of production potential but with the huge injection of cash - AED will be poised for exploration succcess - huge amounts of money = an enhanced ability to find more oil - have a look at woodside and other massive companies too see the truth in this theory - AED will be huge for many years to come - if the market is going to give AED a discount P/E and not factor in pretty  much guaranteed exploration success in the future (and over price dodgy spec stocks) then there is something very wrong with the market


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## imajica (2 October 2007)

resourceboom said:


> "Oh ic, 5-7 years isnt too much actually. those figures are consensus forecasts from a few brokers (taken from COMSEC). I think the 08/09 EPS is lower because of the lower oil price forecast assumption for that year etc"
> 
> Turn it up
> What is the revenue over 5-7 years or 100MB ??  hmm approx 6-7 Billion revenue, plus they have some very large exploration targets.
> ...





In terms of raw revenue (before tax and costs etc) - the 100 million barrels is above tapis grade - so more like 8-9 billion ausse dollars


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## laurie (2 October 2007)

I find it absolutely amazing that one day its up .95c then the next day its down approx .40c then again I never understood when to take profits 

cheers laurie


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## Icharus (2 October 2007)

Why worry about the waves on the beach ( daily movements up and down)
It's the tide that makes the BIG PROFITS

AED's tide is coming in and it sure looks like a King Tide, all that's needed is to wait for the news of 30000bls being pumped and continued exploration results and we should see a doubling of sp.

PE 10 x EPS of $2.00 = $20.00

Bought more today just couldn't help myself

Cheers Icharus and please DYOR


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## surfingman (2 October 2007)

Icharus said:


> PE 10 x EPS of $2.00 = $20.00




Thats an interesting pricing model there similar to relative P/E but not quite. 

It's not even close to accurate for pricing purposes. The P/E is not known yet and can only be estimated which is anyone's guess at this stage, generally you use a series of historic P/E's to get future P/E and incorporate the industry or the appropriate market.


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## imajica (2 October 2007)

its funny how people get fussy with P/E's over companies that are making a fortune (or about to)  and are somehow oblivious to various industrials and tech stocks that are dogs on p/e's of 30 or 40

AED will be raking it in + this will fuel intensive exploration + further success and expansion - the market likes a growth story with solid fundamentals - IMO you would have to be insane to sell at this stage


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## laurie (2 October 2007)

imajica said:


> IMO you would have to be insane to sell at this stage




Well there must be a few insane investors on the ASX then if oil is that close,the only reason you would sell is for profits or hoping for a retrace if all is not well then again I was never good at Russian Roulette  

cheers laurie


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## imajica (2 October 2007)

some pretty pictures of the oil platform 

http://seaproduction.oppdateringsfabrikken.no/media/Prep_for_Sail.pdf


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## rederob (2 October 2007)

surfingman said:


> Thats an interesting pricing model there similar to relative P/E but not quite.
> 
> It's not even close to accurate for pricing purposes. The P/E is not known yet and can only be estimated which is anyone's guess at this stage, generally you use a series of historic P/E's to get future P/E and incorporate the industry or the appropriate market.




Really surfer?
How do you get these historic pes for a company that has none?
Pray tell.
And in the absence of what you need, what model would you choose?


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## Icharus (3 October 2007)

your right surfingman in saying it is not accurate but whatever model you use at this stage will be inaccurate for the following

1 Oil price
2 real rate of pumping
3 cost of running FPSO
4 oil field natural decline/reserves
5 exploration costs and development

so why go to the effort of using say a NPV model when in the end someone will say rubbish in rubbish out!

Also if you did use an NPV model and used irr of 10% and a heavy fwd risk factor of 50% for argument sake it would end up giving a number very similar to that I quoted.

Would it help if instead of saying PE 10 I used the term forward earnings multiplier 10?

The other thing is how conservative do you want to be?
I believe that the numbers used are conservative and yet they show we are still below half true value. When AED gets within a dollar or two of the estimation then revalue higher on more certainty but whats the point of saying $40 ps does it change your thinking about it being a strong buy.

I would have bought it even if there was a 50% return. Try finding that kind of return in a bank. So if it is easily calculated at 100% plus or 400% plus it is really a moot point.

I like to buy on fundamentals and sell when it's gone beyond fundamental and has triggered a technical.

At this point all I can see is that it appears fundamentally undervalued and that is why I have bought them

If you have a more robust valuation I would love to see it

Cheers Icharus


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## surfingman (3 October 2007)

rederob said:


> Really surfer?
> How do you get these historic pes for a company that has none?
> Pray tell.




My point exactly, its still just a guess until so many variables are revealed in time.



rederob said:


> And in the absence of what you need, what model would you choose?




I would use net present value and calculate this on expected flows or more accurately the initial flow rates when production begins.


			
				Icharus; said:
			
		

> Would it help if instead of saying PE 10 I used the term forward earnings multiplier 10?




I don't mind if you call it P/E or forward earnings multiplier,  How do you get 10 as a true figure?



			
				Icharus; said:
			
		

> Whatever model you use at this stage will be inaccurate for the following:
> 1 Oil price
> 2 real rate of pumping
> 3 cost of running FPSO
> ...




That is too true, but I personally believe NPV can factor in some of these above variables through discounting.



			
				Icharus; said:
			
		

> If you have a more robust valuation I would love to see it




So would the rest of the world, but unfortunately I dont


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## bigdog (3 October 2007)

Icharus said:


> Why worry about the waves on the beach ( daily movements up and down)
> 
> Cheers Icharus and please DYOR




The SP is on a wave today and looking better!

Current SP:
AED   	$9.62  	   	  +$0.11   	  +1.16%   	opened at  	 $9.30  with high of 	 $9.68 and low of  	 $9.27  	 79,731 shares 	 $751,473  	@ 03-Oct 10:23:02


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## greenfs (3 October 2007)

THE AFR this morning in Street Talk (Page 18 I think) indicates that UBS is placing a fresh buy recommendation on this stock with the target price increased by about $3 to about $11.50.

Let the good times roll for all on board. For those not on board, it seems that it is still not too late.


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## gfresh (3 October 2007)

It is gapping around a bit, as there is not a steady cue of buyers and sellers at various price points. It's smoothing out a bit more now. 

This was largely because of the talk of INP pushed AED a little quickly to $9.80 (about a 10% jump), with vary few sellers at the time. It seems to be now hovering around mid $9 mark as regular trading is being undertaken. 

My concern is when is the first production ann due out? Should have been about a week ago accordingly to the last release due to having to replace a seal. I may guess something is delaying it, maybe minor but nevertheless. Should people be cautious right now?


----------



## laurie (3 October 2007)

Just sent AED an e-mail complaining why no announcement about first oil  if there is a problem *TELL US* 

cheers laurie


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## imajica (3 October 2007)

off shore oil platforms are a complex undertaking - a few minor delays merely separates the strong hands from the weak - good for getting rid of the lemmings - the oil hasn't gone anywhere and the tapis price just keeps rising -a little patience will be rewarded IMO


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## gfresh (3 October 2007)

Laurie: good stuff. Please post back any response on that email. It would be nice to know the latest on this. I assume it's going ok, but you never know.


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## blues (4 October 2007)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSP1338620071004

SINGAPORE, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The start of oil production at Australia's Puffin field is imminent, an official at independent company AED Oil (AED.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday, following delays to the launch.

"We expect to start imminently," Trevor Slater, general manager of marketing at AED, said by phone. "It's certainly not weeks away now."

The field was now undergoing testing, Slater said.

Puffin oilfield in the Timor Sea will produce between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels per day, AED has said previously.

The field, the biggest addition this year to Australia's struggling oil output, was initially expected to come onstream in 2006, but the start-up was delayed to this summer and then to mid-to-late September.

The new crude, Puffin North East crude oil, has an API gravity of about 44 degrees and a sulphur content of 0.05 percent, making it similar to Asian benchmark Tapis crude.


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## laurie (4 October 2007)

gfresh said:


> Laurie: good stuff. Please post back any response on that email. It would be nice to know the latest on this. I assume it's going ok, but you never know.




Slight leak on christmas tree something to do with annulus valve  not that I would know what that means was told not long to go  

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (5 October 2007)

SP today
*AED    $9.53  	   	  +$0.12   	  +1.28%   	with high of  	 $9.60 * and low of	 $9.43  	 55,445 shares  	 $527,354 @ 	 05-Oct 11:09:59

ASX ANN today
05/10/2007	General Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00766931

*General Update*

*Puffin-10 Puffin SW – Drilling Program*
AED (AED or the Company) advises that the Wilcraft drilling rig will be mobilized on Saturday 6 October 2007. Puffin-10, a production well is located in the Puffin SW region and is scheduled to spud on Wednesday 10 October 2007. The jack up rig will operate in water depths of 84 meters. The primary objective of the well is to drill and complete a horizontal section 200 m+ of reservoir interval within the Upper Cretaceous (UK1a) sands. The well is expected take to approximately 55 days to drill and complete. Production from Puffin-10 will be directed through the Modec Venture (MV1) FPSO. Production from Puffin SW is expected to commence in the first half of 2008

To meet some of the initial cashflow requirements of the Puffin-10 drilling program, AED has placed 2,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares at an issue price of $7.70 raising $15.4 million. The funds will be utilised for ongoing developments works and working capital. The issue price represented a 5% discount to the prevailing AED share price ($8.26) at the time of negotiating the share placement. AED pays no fees for the placement.

*Puffin NE Installation and Production*
AED wishes to advise that testing and pre-commissioning works at Puffin NE is continuing. First oil production is expected within the next couple of days following full testing of the FPSO under operating conditions. Production from the field will commence by initially bringing Puffin-8 gradually up to production levels. Puffin-8 will then be shut in while the process is repeated for Puffin-7. Upon the satisfactory commissioning both Puffin-8 and puffin-7 will be opened to facilitate combined production. Production levels are expected to reach full operating levels within 2 weeks.


----------



## darrenaf (5 October 2007)

Latest update....

"Puffin NE Installation and Production
AED wishes to advise that testing and pre-commissioning works at Puffin NE is
continuing. First oil production is expected within the next couple of days following full testing of the FPSO under operating conditions. Production from the field will commence by initially bringing Puffin-8 gradually up to production levels. Puffin-8 will then be shut in while the process is repeated for Puffin-7. Upon the satisfactory commissioning both Puffin-8 and puffin-7 will be opened to facilitate combined production. Production levels are expected to reach full operating levels within 2 weeks.

Trevor Slater
Company Secretary"

On the edge of my seat waiting for first oil, but it reminds of the movie Annie...."tomorrow is always a day away".


----------



## bigdog (5 October 2007)

*Share price for AED has taken off +$0.44   	  +4.68% 

 AED   	$9.85  	   	  +$0.44   	  +4.68%   	 high of $9.85 	 146,986  shares	 $1,417,795  @	 05-Oct 11:45:36*


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## laurie (5 October 2007)

Have got the champagne bottle ready to open, looks like Monday may be the official first oil flow for production from being an explorer 

cheers laurie


----------



## greenfs (5 October 2007)

SP has reached $10.00 today and is currently trading at $9.95. No need to wait until Monday to bring out the champers.


----------



## laurie (5 October 2007)

greenfs said:


> SP has reached $10.00 today and is currently trading at $9.95. No need to wait until Monday to bring out the champers.




Yep right there thought last trading day before official announcement of oil was the only chance of getting below $10 *THEN AGAIN* the way the markets are at the moment it may retrace back slightly 

cheers laurie


----------



## Aargh! (5 October 2007)

No champagne for me but have just cracked a nice cold beer . Grabbed a few more of these guys this mornin


----------



## laurie (5 October 2007)

Aargh! said:


> No champagne for me but have just cracked a nice cold beer . Grabbed a few more of these guys this mornin




Good one Aargh you will crack the champers when it gets to $20  

cheers laurie


----------



## resourceboom (5 October 2007)

Congrats to all holders for holding through all the delays and corrections.
Hope everthing runs to plan and the flows maintain strongly for the first 6 months, then we could see your $20 when the SW comes online.

Thats why AED waited, to announce an update with the spudding news too.


----------



## imajica (5 October 2007)

been a while so I thought I'd post a chart considering AED smashed through the $10 barrier today - next week should also be bullish with first oil imminent


----------



## Ken (7 October 2007)

12 months ago I posted that AED was heading for $12.   The price was $3.00 a share at the time.  WE are now at $10 per share.

A few guys have emailed me to ask how I knew this.

I wasnt just making numbers out of the air.

12 months ago UBS went to visit AED and they ran the numbers on the project.   And their valuation was $12.00 at the time. Obviously oil has increased in price and energy as a whole has been moving.

UBS are still bullish on AED, but as per the rules I will not be posting a target price.

Target prices are floated around a lot by brokers on reports, and on company websites.

I have found that the broker reports which are free, are not worth considering.

UBS obviously have very rich clients, and they make a lot of money by not giving away information.

I would imagine FMG had the same unpublished broker reports and recommendations that were not easily available to the public.

Its only been a short time for AED, will be interesting to see the future in 3-5 years.

Stocks like AED where there is a resource involved, can have great rewards if you can get the right information at the right time.  A friend bought OXR at 10 cents and was told to hold for life. He sold at 50 cents.  Good profit. I guess thats the difference between good investors and great investors.


----------



## laurie (7 October 2007)

While I agree with what you are saying Ken hindsight also is a wonderful thing I have said many times when shares go up we say we did not buy enough and when they crash we bought too much not to mention the fear and greed factor  oh well interesting to see if there is an pre-open announcement from AED hopefully the weekend gave them time to check for any further leaks,equipment failure etc 

cheers laurie


----------



## darrenaf (8 October 2007)

WE have oil!!!
Puffin- NE Development
AED (AED or the Company) advises that the Puffin North East Development has
commenced production, with first hydrocarbons from Puffin-8 reaching topsides at
16.21 hours last Saturday, 6 October.
Puffin-8 has been producing up to around 12,000 stb/d on a  ¾ inch choke before
being shut in, and Puffin-7 has subsequently been commissioned, reaching a maximum
rate of around 16,000 stb/d over night.
Currently, the flow from both wells is being combined and the plan is to gradually
increase the total flow through the process facilities to the interim commissioning
rate of 27,000 stb/d late today, before progressing to stabilized production rate.
Puffin SW drilling Update
Further to the ASX release on 5 October 2007 the Company advises that the Wilcraft
drilling rig is now on location and is in preparation to commence drilling the Puffin-10
production well located in the Puffin SW region.


----------



## sfx (8 October 2007)

Great news to wake up to indeed ! 

This makes life a little easier after the Wallabies loss...

As discussed in previous posts, hindsight is a wonderful thing, but yes indeed what is the future for AED?! With Oil production now on a worldwide downturn (from previous historical production flows), prices doubling and keep doubling with record highs, you can't help feel optimistic.

However, I would like to know if anyone can quote other similar Oil producers out there of the same magnitude of AED. I keep thinking of Woodside and they obviously started somewhere - can only think of the possibilities for AED - a great start with Puffin, but what about other future prospects elsewhere in the world ?!? 

There's heaps of other Oil wannabes out there, and I guess its up to the speculators of who/where will be the next big thing....

Any comments on these few points appreciated.


----------



## bigdog (8 October 2007)

darrenaf said:


> WE have oil!!!
> Puffin- NE Development
> 
> ASX ANN today stated:
> Puffin-8 has been producing up to around 12,000 stb/d on a ¾ inch choke before being shut in, and Puffin-7 has subsequently been commissioned, reaching a maximum rate of around 16,000 stb/d over night.




SP looking great today with high of $10.37

SP currently AED   	$10.11  	   	  +$0.08   	  +0.80%   	  152,647 shares 	 $1,559,528 @ 	 08-Oct 11:11:24


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## laurie (8 October 2007)

Seems to me by that announcement that the total flow may exceed the 30,000 boo/day that they predicted unless they throttle the flow back to their desired flow rate by balancing Puffin-7 & Puffin-8 

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie (8 October 2007)

Amazing absolutely amazing what the market expected 6million barrels of oil on first day!like I said I give up working the market out

cheers laurie


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2007)

laurie said:


> Amazing absolutely amazing what the market expected 6million barrels of oil on first day!like I said I give up working the market out
> 
> cheers laurie



I think it was factored in, hence the amazing run of late.

The big hurdle will be the first quarterly and ramp up production figures. If it can get through these ok, then I'd say it's set for another run.

But I'm pretty happy with my call of it being just sub $10 before first oil. Hehehehehehehe.

What a gem this one has been. If you haven't been on it, you really have to question why.


----------



## jimski (10 October 2007)

Can someone help me out with understanding the current price action?  Why are we seeing a falling SP at this stage?  Profit taking?  Recent excercise of options?  

Had expected to see the more doubting and conservative big investors jump onboard with first oil....


----------



## laurie (10 October 2007)

jimski said:


> Can someone help me out with understanding the current price action?  Why are we seeing a falling SP at this stage?  Profit taking?  Recent excercise of options?
> 
> Had expected to see the more doubting and conservative big investors jump onboard with first oil....




If you find out jim please let me know  it's either profit taking or it's being manipulated for the purpose of accumulation

cheers laurie


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## imajica (10 October 2007)

fundamentally nothing has changed with AED, it still has 100 million barrels of oil, it is currently ramping up production to 30000 Bopd +    - the exploration upside is enormous as AED will have big bikkies to spend on finding more reserves - let's not forget the second well which will bump up production to 60000 Bopd or the talbot field etc

you would have to be mad to sell AED at this crucial time


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## dj_420 (10 October 2007)

Its only down ten cents sheeesh guys! 

We had an awesome run up to $10, it inevitably has to pull back at some point. The chart cannot go vertical!

I would not worry it would be a bit of profit taking, I am personally way more comfortable sitting on AED for long term knowing that production has started.


----------



## bigdog (10 October 2007)

ASX ANN today

10/10/2007	 	ZSP:SandP to Include AED Oil in SP/ASX 200
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00768455

*Standard & Poor’s to Include AED Oil Ltd. in the S&P/ASX 200*

SYDNEY, Oct. 10, 2007—Standard & Poor’s Index Services Australia today announced that it will remove Centro Shopping America Trust (ASX: CSF) from the S&P/ASX indices, subject to shareholder approval of the proposed scheme of arrangement under which the company will be merged with Centro Retail Trust (ASX: CER). Assuming that the scheme is approved, S&P will remove Centro Shopping America Trust from the S&P/ASX indices after the close of business on Oct. 12, 2007.

AED Oil Ltd. (ASX: AED) will fill the vacancy created by the removal of Centro Shopping America Trust from the S&P/ASX 200. Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (ASX: MAH) will replace Centro Shopping America Trust in the S&P/ASX All Australian 200 by. These changes are scheduled to become effective after the close of trading on Oct. 12, 2007.


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## laurie (10 October 2007)

Thanks bigdog surprised they did not announce this! may check to see if this is now on CommSec margin lending approved share security may start off at 40% 

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (10 October 2007)

laurie said:


> Thanks bigdog surprised they did not announce this! may check to see if this is now on CommSec margin lending approved share security may start off at 40%
> 
> cheers laurie




They already had about a month back. Given commsec are doing their auditing, that might have been a buy signal in itself. Funnily enough... when they did put the LVR on them... it went vertical...

Perhaps an increase to 50% is now on the cards.


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## Icharus (10 October 2007)

AED Oil Ltd. (ASX: AED) will fill the vacancy created by the removal of Centro Shopping America Trust from the S&P/ASX 200. Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (ASX: MAH) will replace Centro Shopping America Trust in the S&P/ASX All Australian 200 by. These changes are scheduled to become effective after the close of trading on Oct. 12, 2007.[/QUOTE]

Good news will hopefully increase the demand as some institions will be underweight !


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## imajica (11 October 2007)

AED looking very bullish today after a few days of churn - just hit $10.23

news of stabilised flow rates will surely be announced soon


----------



## laurie (11 October 2007)

imajica said:


> AED looking very bullish today after a few days of churn - just hit $10.23
> 
> news of stabilised flow rates will surely be announced soon




imajica
Once that happens what will push the sp higher! assuming the accumulation has ended or lets hope so 

cheers laurie


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## greenfs (11 October 2007)

Laurie - As with everything a lack of sellers will underwite further rises with the market to shortly fully appreciate the strong positive cash flows that will flow to (us) shareholders via the bottom line, initially on a tax-free/unfranked basis


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## imajica (11 October 2007)

Closing today on an all time high of $10.46 after a desperate grab in the after market auction. Technically and fundamentally AED is ticking all the boxes.


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## laurie (11 October 2007)

greenfs said:


> Laurie - As with everything a lack of sellers will underwite further rises with the market to shortly fully appreciate the strong positive cash flows that will flow to (us) shareholders via the bottom line, initially on a tax-free/unfranked basis



greenfs

Yep a capital return of .85c per share[IPO issue price] will see me free carried into retirement 

cheers laurie


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## sfx (11 October 2007)

Trading volumes for AED over a million on the market today & a new record for the share price (at market close) - looks like the news is filtering through the market....

Shove this one in the bottom draw I think and hope that things continue to go well early 2008...... ?!! Be interesting to see their balance sheets / annual report once production is in full swing.


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## bigdog (12 October 2007)

ASX ann 
12/10/2007	General Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00769164

SP  AED   	$10.60  	   	  +$0.14   	  +1.34%   	 high of 	 $10.63  	   	 238,162 shares 	 $2,503,999  	@ 12-Oct 12:02:15

ASX Announcement
12 October 2007
*General Update*

Puffin- NE Commissioning and Production
AED (AED or the Company) advises that commissioning of the Puffin North East field is nearing completion, ahead of schedule. The highlight for the week since first oil last Saturday has been the satisfactory completion of the uninterrupted production test of 27,000 stb/d for a test period of 72 hours. Both wells have now been commissioned. The Subsea manifold has passed functional testing and is performing to expectation. Presently the gas lift system is being commissioned and tested. Production levels are scheduled to increase to 30,000 stb/d over the next couple of days. Cumulative production to date is in excess of 110,000 stb. The first offtake of crude oil is scheduled for late October 2007.

Puffin SW Development
Activities for Puffin South West are also progressing well with the spudding of Puffin-10 expected later today. Puffin-10 is planned as a horizontal well consistent with those previously drilled by AED (Puffin-7 and Puffin-8). Discussions with potential subsea installation contractors for puffin SW are at an advanced stage and an agreement is expected to be signed in the near future.

ASX200
Standard and Poor’s Index services Australia announced on 10 October that AED may be included in the S&P ASX200. Should this occur it would be effective after the close of trading on 12 October 2007.
Trevor Slater


----------



## imajica (12 October 2007)

looks like flow rates have well and truly been realised - awesome news for AED holders - the inclusion in the asx 200 is the icing on the cake


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## laurie (12 October 2007)

Excellent update if that 30,000 stb/d is achieved then watch the sp move up because AED will have to start paying their debit off and once that is reduced then the rest is cream on the top of the cake 

cheers laurie


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## laurie (12 October 2007)

imajica said:


> looks like flow rates have well and truly been realised - awesome news for AED holders - the inclusion in the asx 200 is the icing on the cake




sorry imajica I was typing mine as you were sending yours re:cake both thinking of the same thing 

cheers laurie


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## imajica (12 October 2007)

looks like we visualise the same metaphor in regards to AED's success! No worries Laurie - Hold on as long as you can to reap the rewards - mmmm dividends


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## Icharus (12 October 2007)

If Puffin 10 spuds today and takes as long as Puffin 8 (73days to completion) then this will be 23rd December. That could be a very nice Christmas present indeed!

Does anyone know when the other exploration/appraisal wells are planned for? Previous announcements seem to indicate that there could be a third appraisal in the NE field before the end of the year.


----------



## laurie (12 October 2007)

Last minute fight to get to all time high of $10.71 ASX S&P200 after close what a great day 

cheers laurie


----------



## chops_a_must (12 October 2007)

laurie said:


> Last minute fight to get to all time high of $10.71 ASX S&P200 after close what a great day
> 
> cheers laurie



Christ. Im expecting some consolidation soon, to create another trading opportunity. But geez, it's just ferocious.

Not that I'm complaining. They are my 4th... or possibly 3rd biggest holding now, and that's totally free carried. I tell you what, I'm laughing.


----------



## gfresh (12 October 2007)

> looks like we visualise the same metaphor in regards to AED's success! No worries Laurie - Hold on as long as you can to reap the rewards - mmmm dividends




I was also thinking what they may do in the future with all the wads of cash they will surely have by even mid 2008. Dividends would be nice, and sure to be quite fat. 

Other idea I had was that they may start getting heavy on further exploration, buying up further opportunities. This is purely speculative, but maybe gobble up a smaller player or two??


----------



## chops_a_must (12 October 2007)

gfresh said:


> Other idea I had was that they may start getting heavy on further exploration, buying up further opportunities. This is purely speculative, but maybe gobble up a smaller player or two??



They've previously stated their aim is to prove up and drill out the current tenements as they are very confident in them, with little view to moving outside of this for another 5 years or so.


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## laurie (12 October 2007)

gfresh said:


> I was also thinking what they may do in the future with all the wads of cash they will surely have by even mid 2008. Dividends would be nice, and sure to be quite fat.
> 
> Other idea I had was that they may start getting heavy on further exploration, buying up further opportunities. This is purely speculative, but maybe gobble up a smaller player or two??




Why not buy out your 1.25% Royalty NWE then I will get more AED as a script offer for my NWE shares 

cheers laurie


----------



## jimski (12 October 2007)

gfresh said:


> I was also thinking what they may do in the future with all the wads of cash they will surely have by even mid 2008. Dividends would be nice, and sure to be quite fat.
> 
> Other idea I had was that they may start getting heavy on further exploration, buying up further opportunities. This is purely speculative, but maybe gobble up a smaller player or two??




Is there anyone speculating about when the company might sellout to a takeover?  Dix must have a pice target....$15? $20?....at which he would sell?


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## dj_420 (12 October 2007)

jimski said:


> Is there anyone speculating about when the company might sellout to a takeover?  Dix must have a pice target....$15? $20?....at which he would sell?




There hasnt even been a takeover offer, I think it would be very premature to speculate about price targets of a takeover. Although the CEO has stated that yes AED would be an attractive target.


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## jimski (13 October 2007)

dj_420 said:


> There hasnt even been a takeover offer, I think it would be very premature to speculate about price targets of a takeover. Although the CEO has stated that yes AED would be an attractive target.




In a way that is my point - nothing has been tabled of course but he must have in the back of his mind what a selling price target would be.  I guess it is all too speculative at this stage but I can't help wondering...


----------



## greenfs (13 October 2007)

I think it is a little too early to talk takeovers for this company as I think that Management is probably still too motivated to consider selling. 

In any case, these things take time especially where the target company has plenty of upside left. You only have to look at how long it is taking BHP to make a market-anticipated offer for JBM that will prove acceptable to Kerry Harmanis. After a year of alleged back room negotiaions in London, they are still talking.

Having said that everything is for sale at the right price. Do others share my view that the obvious takeover player would be Woodside (WPL)?


----------



## dj_420 (13 October 2007)

Woodside or Santos. Santos apparantly need to increase their supplies which are slowly but surely running out.


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## laurie (13 October 2007)

Well if you look at the closing sp for both AED hopefully will bridge the gap 

AED $10.55
STO $15.40

so any attempt for e.g. by Santos will push the sp of AED way past its own making it worth approx $2.5Billion and this is not allowing for future earnings  using 160m as market cap 

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (15 October 2007)

AED Share price looking great this morning +$0.28   	  +2.65%

AED   	AED Company Research  	 $10.83  	   	  +$0.28   	  +2.65%  	 139,059 shares  	 $1,493,975  	@ 15-Oct 10:03:54


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## imajica (15 October 2007)

just hit record high of $10.83

the buying this morning has been relentless

congrats to all aed holders


----------



## imajica (15 October 2007)

a chart from IPO to present day

a beautiful thing to behold for all aed holders


confirmation of flow rates should be annnounced soon


----------



## imajica (16 October 2007)

with oil over $86 a barrel - does anyone know the exact selling price for AED's oil? is this something that they will disclose via an announcement? I know they are getting above tapis price - what is the price of tapis at the moment?


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## greenfs (16 October 2007)

A Google search has confirmed that the price of Tapis is presently USD95 per barrel. 

A check of the AED ann confirms that Total is in charge of marketing its product under a 2 year agreement with a capacity to forward sell production. 

Whilst no price has been mentioned, a UBS Energy Conference presentation (June 2007) on the AED Oil website clearly indicates that the oil will realise a premium above the Tapis price. I believe that we can expect an ann by AED will clarify the premium amount soon.


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## dj_420 (16 October 2007)

greenfs said:


> A Google search has confirmed that the price of Tapis is presently USD95 per barrel.
> 
> A check of the AED ann confirms that Total is in charge of marketing its product under a 2 year agreement with a capacity to forward sell production.
> 
> Whilst no price has been mentioned, a UBS Energy Conference presentation (June 2007) on the AED Oil website clearly indicates that the oil will realise a premium above the Tapis price. I believe that we can expect an ann by AED will clarify the premium amount soon.




Hey greenfs

Just wondering what website you used to get that Tapis price. The one i found only had crude not tapis as well.

Thanks in advance.


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## darrenaf (16 October 2007)

More good news from AED (it just keeps coming!)....

ASX Announcement
16 October 2007
Drilling Progress Report No 1, Puffin-10
AED Oil Limited as operator of AC/L6 reports that the spudding of Puffin-10, located in the Puffin South West region occurred 17.45 on 14 October 2007. Drilling reached a depth of 153 m at which point the 30” casing was run and cemented.
The Wilcraft Jackup rig is drilling the well. Water depth at location is 84 m. The rotary table is 34.8 m above the sea level. All depths are reported as metres from the rotary table (MDRT) unless specified otherwise.
The primary objective of the well is to drill and complete a horizontal section 200 m+ of reservoir interval within the Upper Cretaceous (UK1a) sands. The well is expected take to approximately 55 days to drill and complete. Production from Puffin-10 will be directed through the Modec Venture (MV1) FPSO. Production from Puffin SW is expected to commence in the first half of 2008


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## greenfs (16 October 2007)

dj_420 said:


> Hey greenfs
> 
> Just wondering what website you used to get that Tapis price. The one i found only had crude not tapis as well.
> 
> Thanks in advance.




A Google search resulted in a graph at the following website address:

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm


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## imajica (16 October 2007)

AED just hit $10.95 - do you think it might close above $11 today?

this would be an uber-bullish signal in my opinion?

hope everyone is set


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## Aargh! (16 October 2007)

Got this article from another thread. What do you guy's think re the downgrade of AED?

*Downgrades Continue In Market
FN Arena News - October 16 2007
By Greg Peel
*
As the local stock market has hit new highs, FNArena has specifically been following the recent spate of analyst downgrades of stock recommendations. From October 5 to 12, the count was 29 downgrades to 12 upgrades, and when only ASX 200 stocks are considered that count was 24 to 6.
After two more days trading, another 17 stocks have been downgraded by analysts, with 8 upgrades. Removing non-ASX 200 companies, the count is 11 to 5.

To summarise, overall down/upgrades since October 5 are running at 46:20 while the ASX 200 ratio is 35:11. Some stocks have been down/upgraded by more than one broker.

In almost every case, the main reason cited for the downgrade was a share price that had run too far beyond valuation. In almost every upgrade case the story was the same, only opposite.

New stocks to hit the downgrade team in the ASX 200 are AED Oil (AED), Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Emeco Holdings ((EHL)), St George Bank ((SGB)), Westpac Bank ((WBC)) and Zinifex ((ZFX)). Outside the ASX 200 were AJ Lucas ((AJL)) and Treasury Group ((TRG)).
New stocks on the upgrade side are Crane Group ((CRG)), Metcash ((MTS)) and GWA International ((GWT)).

There were three downgrades and three upgrades for AGL Energy ((AGK)) this morning, meaning that stock came out neutral after a company specific profit downgrade and subsequent share price fall. Publishing & Broadcasting ((PBL)) downgrades continue following demerger uncertainty. The AED downgrade was anticipation of a lower oil price, while Macquarie put the sword to BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) yesterday. Citi has been responsible for today's bank downgrades in an overall review of valuations.

As the ASX 200 crosses into negative 1% territory again this afternoon, it is fair to say today has been the first down-day of any significance since the Fed interest rate cut. This has followed a similar session in the US where analysts there, too, are beginning to suggest a pullback might be healthy. The Australian rally has been fuelled mostly by stronger commodity prices, which in turn have been fuelled largely by a weaker US dollar. Analysts at GSJB Were note there is "an almost universally positive sentiment" towards the resource sector at present.

Universally held opinions are always dangerous.

Weres highlights a shift away from mature G7 economies and into emerging market economies. (The analysts say "and Australia", but given Australia's success is derived from emerging markets you might as well call it an EM as well.) Before today the Hang Seng is up 44% year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite 122%, and the ASX 200 Resources 52%.

In Australia, industrial valuations are now back in the "extreme" zone, notes Weres, with the resource sector trading at a PE of 15x compared to the long term industrial average of 14.7x. Resource stocks usually trade at much lower PEs than their industrial counterparts because of commodity price volatility. Australian stocks are currently being "priced for perfection", notes Weres, suggesting no risk is being built in at all.

While China looks scary at 23x, PE s are backed up by 21% expected earnings growth. Such growth expectation is not the case in Australia, where industrial PEs are at 17.2x (over the 14.7x average). The inflation-adjusted figure is 19.7x, which is even more alarming given inflation risk is increasing.

Small cap PEs are higher than large cap.

GSJB Were is advising a pullback to a Neutral stance on resource stocks.


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## bigdog (16 October 2007)

AED share price did well today +$0.25   	  +2.33%  and all time high of $10.98

 AED   	$10.98  	   	  +$0.25   	  +2.33%  	 686,825  shares	 $7,466,277  @	 16-Oct 16:10:19

The price of oil also increased!


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## gfresh (16 October 2007)

Yeah, I don't take much heed of that article.. believe the behavior of the stock, not broker recommendations. They have a habit of being about as correct as anybody else's opinions. 

Oil price is at a record high, and it may go further, and it may pull back to $US75 a barrel eventually. Either way AED should continue to make money at the current price. Don't forget AED's oil is Tapis grade, which commands a 5-10% premium above the regular crude price that is quoted.


----------



## Icharus (16 October 2007)

It just seems ludicrous to downgrade AED on the basis of Oil price. Oil hit $USD 86 last night in NY record high.

Another explanation could be that the broker has some institutional investors who do not have enough AED and since it now is in the S&P 200 are now required to have them. Lets tell the punters it is not a good story and we will buy on the down dip. Well not this bunny!!

Does anyone know who the analyst/broker is?

Cheers Icharus


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## imajica (16 October 2007)

a classic case of brokers trying to manipulate the market in order to accumulate - don't let them take your shares - this one has further to travel


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## Aargh! (16 October 2007)

I felt the same way and took this article with a grain of salt. I have continued to confidently buy on the way up and am confident with where this one is heading.


----------



## laurie (16 October 2007)

Thank god they don't advise me if they did I will be questioning their lack of foresight in not picking up AED a lot earlier 

cheers laurie


----------



## jimski (17 October 2007)

Here's a link to the 2006/2007 oil price chart (scroll down when you get to the page)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936

Also, a multitude of opinions to be found at the Oil Drum forum...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3093

My own simplistic view is that weak USD coupled with increasing demand for oil from China/India will only see the upward price trend continue.  

In any case the fundamentals are so good with AED and there are more milestone announcements on the horizon in regard to Puffin-10/Puffin SW, not to mention further exploration potential that this stock ought to continue to show real growth.


----------



## Icharus (17 October 2007)

Oil price up last night now at 87.51  nymex quote 
AUD/USD spot down to 88.57
AUD price of 98.80 plus premium for Tappis grade
Go AED Go

cheers Icharus


----------



## imajica (17 October 2007)

AED just hit all time high of $11.34

the buying has been relentless

above tapis grade oil above $100 Aussie a barrel


----------



## boff (17 October 2007)

Hi,
I've been holding AED since the recent rally started, buying in at 8.80. I'm pretty tight with my stops and have been keeping a trailing stop of 10-15%.

Does anyone stick to to a stop here?
If so does anyone have a percentage or a dollar number in mind?

Cheers,
Julian


----------



## imajica (17 October 2007)

AED share price tends to be prone to more intra-day volatility than other stocks - probably a good idea to give it a bit more room to move as this one still has a long way to run - with the other well coming on line in first half 2008 we will see 60000Bopd + I'm not even going to predict what the share price will do when this is confirmed


----------



## bigdog (17 October 2007)

SP heading into blue skies with all time high today of $11.40  	   	  +$0.42   	  +3.83% 

 AED   $11.40  	   	  +$0.42   	  +3.83% 736,778 shares $8,280,825  @	 17-Oct 16:10:15

The share price for the past month is up $3.36 or 43% with no speeding tickets!

Date------  	 Close   	Volume  
17-Oct-07	11.40 736,778
16-Oct-07	 10.98 	686,825
15-Oct-07	 10.73 	529,196
12-Oct-07	 10.55 	1,961,515
11-Oct-07	 10.46 	1,004,197
10-Oct-07	 9.98 	446,740
09-Oct-07	 9.97 	417,615
08-Oct-07	 10.23 	431,052
05-Oct-07	 10.03 	592,372
04-Oct-07	 9.41 	270,741
03-Oct-07	 9.50 	247,333
02-Oct-07	 9.51 	638,827
01-Oct-07	 9.80 	413,808
28-Sep-07	 8.85 	536,269
27-Sep-07	 8.50 	525,218
26-Sep-07	 8.50 	328,488
25-Sep-07	 8.26 	432,569
24-Sep-07	 8.30 	403,552
21-Sep-07	 8.38 	599,127
20-Sep-07	 8.15 	470,408
19-Sep-07	 7.90 	578,197
18-Sep-07	 7.62 	414,689


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## gfresh (17 October 2007)

Charts don't get much sweeter than this..  on a very rough interpolation (which is of course only if the trend continues as is), we can expect about $12.50 by the end of the month, assuming the same rate of growth. Obviously if oil prices fall dramatically, you would expect AED to drop momentum somewhat, and probably break this trend.  

The good thing is that the market depth is firming up on the buy side. Previously there were quite a few gaps which meant 5-10c falls. Now this is gone, it should mean more consistant movement. 

I've just been keeping a running stop of about $1 buffer as imaj says there has been some intraday volatility. Been in since $7.75


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## bigdog (18 October 2007)

gfresh said:


> I've just been keeping a running stop of about $1 buffer as imaj says there has been some intraday volatility. Been in since $7.75




I was in AED Oil in Dec 2006 at $4.61 and LOL

This was my wife's hairdresser's tip!!

LOL; go AED.............


----------



## jimski (18 October 2007)

I'm in at 1.80

Wish in retrospect I had re-mortgaged my house, sold my wife to slave traders and my dog to dog eaters.  Just didn't buy enough back then but what I bought certainly is some reasonable consolation now....


----------



## Sean K (18 October 2007)

jimski said:


> I'm in at 1.80
> 
> Wish in retrospect I had re-mortgaged my house, sold my wife to slave traders and my dog to dog eaters.  Just didn't buy enough back then but what I bought certainly is some reasonable consolation now....



 LOL. I thought the same thing about EISA when I bought in 99' at $1.00 and it went to $4.00 in a few weeks. At the time it was a sure thing. It then dived to 20 cents and went into administration.....Croesus Mining was another sure thing I had some money in.


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## Icharus (18 October 2007)

Hey Jimski, My wife read your post was horrified by the selling the dog to dog eaters..................but not wife to slave traders.............hmmmm might sell wife to slave traders when next needing cash

BTW some shares do have spectacular multiyear rises and keep them some examples are CTX 2.40 to 23.20, Shl 1.80 to 16.60(took ten years). 
It is only a matter of fundamentals. 
The fundamentals for AED are approx 30000 bopd at Tapis grade which at current prices means $3,000,000 per day revenue or a $1bn on a 334 day continuous flow.

Bought more yesterday I personally still think this is cheap but please do your own research and thankyou for those that have submitted to this thread I did not know about AED until reading this thread a few months ago

cheers Icharus


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## imajica (18 October 2007)

kennas said:


> LOL. I thought the same thing about EISA when I bought in 99' at $1.00 and it went to $4.00 in a few weeks. At the time it was a sure thing. It then dived to 20 cents and went into administration.....Croesus Mining was another sure thing I had some money in.




I would hardly associate those dogs with AED - different kettle of fish entirely

a billion in oil revenue a year is nothing to be sneezed at!


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## Sean K (18 October 2007)

imajica said:


> I would hardly associate those dogs with AED - different kettle of fish entirely
> 
> a billion in oil revenue a year is nothing to be sneezed at!



Yes, just making the point that nothing is a sure thing. The list of failures on buy recommendations is a long one.


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## nizar (18 October 2007)

kennas said:


> Yes, just making the point that nothing is a sure thing. The list of failures on buy recommendations is a long one.




Yeh I agree.
In that case, Gekko probably wouldn't touch this, as he only bets on sure things. LOL


----------



## imajica (18 October 2007)

point taken kennas, there is always an element of risk with the market  -however you must agree that the element of risk associated with AED has been reduced with the advent of production.

kennas, just out of interest, are you holding AED at the moment?


----------



## Sean K (18 October 2007)

imajica said:


> point taken kennas, there is always an element of risk with the market  -however you must agree that the element of risk associated with AED has been reduced with the advent of production.
> 
> kennas, just out of interest, are you holding AED at the moment?



AED has obviously been sensational. Well done to you guys holding long term. I've held NWE for less reward, but it's still been ok.


----------



## sfx (18 October 2007)

Considering NWE was following AED for some time, albeit lagged, it seems to have dogged out.

Perhaps everyone is waiting for proceeds to filter down to NWE, then after the accounts are released, and NWE is actually making money, NWE might launch from there. I think that there is a lack of publicity for NWE, which doesn't help. 

Also, on another note - what does everyone think about AED's communications !? I mean with regards to the format they use to release announcements to the market....

I have seen some brillant communications from the likes of BPT, AMU and other oilers out there, and it has all the info of what they're doing ready to hand, ie, covers Drilling Target depth, when drilling commenced, target completion date, % breakup of the operator and other backers etc, etc....

I think AED can do better in this area, and make the info more presentable. These aesthetics can only lead to a better upside. 

Comments?!


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## jimski (18 October 2007)

Re AED commnications - I don't hold any other oil stocks so tough to make a comparison but I have all kinds of other companies and I would say that AED does a pretty good job.  Most important to me is that the get the information out there without seeming to sit on it and that they communicate with apparent regularity.  Nevertheless, if they can improve and it would have a positive effect in general perhaps they should work on it.


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## Icharus (19 October 2007)

Oil up nymex trade 89.47 Dollar up 89.62 
$AUD 99.83/barrel +Tapis premium above nymex
by memory AED had only sold forward 1 million barrels approx only 33 days worth of production the rest should then be able to be sold spot at these type of prices

cheers Icharus


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## dj_420 (19 October 2007)

sfx said:


> Considering NWE was following AED for some time, albeit lagged, it seems to have dogged out.
> 
> Perhaps everyone is waiting for proceeds to filter down to NWE, then after the accounts are released, and NWE is actually making money, NWE might launch from there. I think that there is a lack of publicity for NWE, which doesn't help.
> 
> ...




I suppose it depends what the company is involved in. I guess for oilers they need to have more communication regarding drill targets, flow rates etc. Been the only oiler I hold I will say the lack of news does not worry me.

They have been communicating to the market when needed. A lot of mgt in various companies feel that they dont have the need to overcommunicate to market as it could be seen as trying to hype up a company.

AED puts out more ann than many of my other companies, which I must say are few and far in between.


----------



## Icharus (20 October 2007)

Oil down 88.60 nymex quote AUD/USD 89.05
AUD oil price 99.49 plus tapis premium
Have a good weekend everyone

Cheers Icharus


----------



## imajica (20 October 2007)

source: http://www.subseaiq.com/News/Articles/200710/Sea_Production_s_FPSO_Solid_at_Puffin_Fi_6528.aspx


Sea Production's FPSO Solid at Puffin Field 

   by Sea Production 
Monday, October 15, 2007 


Sea Production's FPSO Front Puffin has commenced production in the Puffin field located in the Timor Sea off the coast of northwest Australia.
First oil was achieved on October 6, and by October 12 the Front Puffin was technically and contractually accepted by the oil company following final acceptance tests. During the test period the vessel produced 27,000 barrels per day from two wells. 

Sea Production has been responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of Front Puffin, and this is the first conversion project that the company has undertaken. The vessel was converted at Keppel Shipyard in Singapore. 

FPSO Front Puffin has a storage capacity of 650,000 barrels and is capable of processing up to 30,000 barrels of oil and 20,000 barrels of water per day. The gas lift capacity is 6 MMcf/d, and the vessel is fitted with an APL/FRAMO turret. 

FPSO Front Puffin has been on hire since June 5 2007, and the focus is now on maintaining safe and stable production.


----------



## Icharus (22 October 2007)

ASX Announcement today "General Update"
330,000 stb's produced by 27thOct
Preliminary production rates likely in the range 20-25,000 bopd
Water Cut 12%.
Still some teething problems works to be completed within 2 weeks


----------



## Aargh! (22 October 2007)

SP heading south rapidly after announcement.............
Last  9.700 Change  -1.280   Percent Change   -11.66


----------



## chops_a_must (22 October 2007)

Aargh! said:


> SP heading south rapidly after announcement.............
> Last  9.700 Change  -1.280   Percent Change   -11.66




I don't think the market liked the advice that the production rates are going to be about 20-25000 bpd. Pretty bad timing to announce a production cut by a third. Should see this one in the low 9s soon. A key fib level is there, and a bit of support, will be interesting to see what happens.


----------



## imajica (22 October 2007)

a very disappointing day for AED holders

sadly, I am no longer one of them - sold out at $10 for a 30% profit

will look again when their new well comes online


----------



## bigdog (22 October 2007)

The AED share price was hammered today!!

SP was down $2.09 to $8.89

Currently SP  $9.40  	   	  -$1.58   	  -14.39%   	high of  $10.90 and low of   	 $8.89  	 1,735,250 shares 	 $17,377,307 @ 	 22-Oct 15:03:44


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## jimski (22 October 2007)

Price action today is surely not all negative?  Volume has been very high.  Fundamentals remain the same.  Production for Puffin 10 due in first half of next year.  A few weeks to address this 'blip' and we should be settled again.  Am I missing something?


----------



## boff (22 October 2007)

I had an guaranteed stop kick in at $10.39 this morning locking in a 20% SP gain for me. I bought back at $9.20 this afternoon.

Did anyone else see today as a buying opportunity? It's hard to stay detached when you see your profit bouncing up and down like - what a rollercoaster today was!!


----------



## CanOz (22 October 2007)

boff said:


> I had an guaranteed stop kick in at $10.39 this morning locking in a 20% SP gain for me. I bought back at $9.20 this afternoon.
> 
> Did anyone else see today as a buying opportunity? It's hard to stay detached when you see your profit bouncing up and down like - what a rollercoaster today was!!




Interesting Boff, used a stop and then bought back in? So you are speculating that you missed most of the drop and the price will rise again?

Good luck, i hope it works out for you?

Cheers,


----------



## Aargh! (22 October 2007)

boff said:


> I had an guaranteed stop kick in at $10.39 this morning locking in a 20% SP gain for me. I bought back at $9.20 this afternoon.
> 
> Did anyone else see today as a buying opportunity? It's hard to stay detached when you see your profit bouncing up and down like - what a rollercoaster today was!!




I didn't use any stops so today wiped out some profits (still up a little over 30% still).
I did look at this as a buy opportunity (very crudely) but chose not to after having a look at the potential reduction in recovery rates announced today.
Based on $11.50 SP (close to where it was recently) and the expected flow rates of 30,000 bpd:
Worst case 20,000bpd = 66% of target giving $7.6 SP
Best case 25,000bpd = 84% of target giving $9.70 SP
The next few days should paint a clearer picture.


----------



## darrenaf (22 October 2007)

Aargh! said:


> I didn't use any stops so today wiped out some profits (still up a little over 30% still).
> I did look at this as a buy opportunity (very crudely) but chose not to after having a look at the potential reduction in recovery rates announced today.
> Based on $11.50 SP (close to where it was recently) and the expected flow rates of 30,000 bpd:
> Worst case 20,000bpd = 66% of target giving $7.6 SP
> ...




I think basing share price solely on bopd is a very rough and incorrect way to value a company such as AED (although I can see the point you are making).  There is a lot more to this company than what it's first wells are outputting in their first week of operation.  Using your theory, if AED were putting out 3000bpd (10%) the sp should be around $1.50.  Count me in for some of that action!

I used todays ups & downs to recover *some* of what was lost on opening.  Still a great company with huge possibilities.

Never thought I'd be able to buy under $10 again.


----------



## laurie (22 October 2007)

A lot of people followed the sheep today fair enough its their right to be wrong!
if people read the announcement properly  "As water handling and gas lift facilities have not been fully commissioned,oil production levels will remain lower than initially forecast while works are being completed." and that during this period preliminary assessments suggest that the ongoing production rates are likely to be approximately 20,000 to 25,000 bopd. *WHILE WORKS ARE BEING COMPLETED* Those that sold today will be first to buy back in once project is fully commissioned BUT at what price 

cheers laurie


----------



## brodion (22 October 2007)

laurie said:


> A lot of people followed the sheep today fair enough its their right to be wrong!
> if people read the announcement properly  "As water handling and gas lift facilities have not been fully commissioned,oil production levels will remain lower than initially forecast while works are being completed." and that during this period preliminary assessments suggest that the ongoing production rates are likely to be approximately 20,000 to 25,000 bopd. *WHILE WORKS ARE BEING COMPLETED* Those that sold today will be first to buy back in once project is fully commissioned BUT at what price
> 
> cheers laurie





 What Do u think.. up from here? The reaction was an overreaction!!!!!!!!!! Has anybody got an opinion?
   church man


----------



## michael_selway (22 October 2007)

brodion said:


> What Do u think.. up from here? The reaction was an overreaction!!!!!!!!!! Has anybody got an opinion?
> church man




Hi short mine life is still an issue u think?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 195.5 164.2 147.0 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## Aargh! (22 October 2007)

darrenaf said:


> I think basing share price solely on bopd is a very rough and incorrect way to value a company such as AED (although I can see the point you are making).  There is a lot more to this company than what it's first wells are outputting in their first week of operation.  Using your theory, if AED were putting out 3000bpd (10%) the sp should be around $1.50.  Count me in for some of that action!
> 
> I used todays ups & downs to recover *some* of what was lost on opening.  Still a great company with huge possibilities.
> 
> Never thought I'd be able to buy under $10 again.




I agree entirely with you darren and reiterate that the numbers I spat out were just quick and crude ballparks and don't include any real analysis or consideration of what AED has in its pipeline (no pun intended). 
I think todays movement was a knee-jerk reaction and my holding my shares shows I'm confident on where AED is heading. I too did not expect to get the chance to buy under $10 as well.


----------



## sfx (22 October 2007)

Aargh! said:


> ....I think todays movement was a knee-jerk reaction and my holding my shares shows I'm confident on where AED is heading. I too did not expect to get the chance to buy under $10 as well.




$10 is a good time to buy in if AED continues to perform. 

With regards to confidence, I also think that there are a few people out there who are holding out on selling due to taxation reasons, ie, those who are wanting to distinguish themselves as investors, rather than being a trader.

So who's holding out for the longer term, and who's in for the short term. Can we get some hands showing here?! :iamwithst


----------



## dale (22 October 2007)

sfx said:


> $10 is a good time to buy in if AED continues to perform.
> 
> With regards to confidence, I also think that there are a few people out there who are holding out on selling due to taxation reasons, ie, those who are wanting to distinguish themselves as investors, rather than being a trader.
> 
> So who's holding out for the longer term, and who's in for the short term. Can we get some hands showing here?! :iamwithst




i'm in for the long term, at least 55 days until we see some black gold from the next line

cheers dale


----------



## jimski (23 October 2007)

dale said:


> i'm in for the long term, at least 55 days until we see some black gold from the next line
> 
> cheers dale





I'm in for the long term too.  I'm not greedy or wearing rose tinted specs but AED has a long way to go yet in my opinion.  I agree with Laurie that todays action is short sighted by many who haven't properly understood the latest announcement ie. that this is a temporary glitch and nothing to panic about.


----------



## Santoro (23 October 2007)

sfx said:


> $10 is a good time to buy in if AED continues to perform.




I'm in for the long term too. AED recently joined the ASX200, bit surprised by yesterdays reaction, but good time to buy some more. 20,000+ barrels a day a good position to be in with more to come.

Hoping to buy more today under 10. Maybe Imajica may get back in too....in any case I expect this one should close over 10 today....


----------



## bigdog (23 October 2007)

AED SP looking much better today currently +$0.32   	  +3.38%

 AED   	$9.79  	   	  +$0.32   	  +3.38%   	 with high of $9.96  	and low $9.66  	 496,507 shares  	 $4,868,389 @ 	 23-Oct 11:32:30

 52-wk High	$11.4000 was on 17-Oct-2007


----------



## bucko (24 October 2007)

This is my opinion:

People's fear about the unknown usually makes prices drop. August 2007 was a classic example when price dropped to just under $6.  

Of course, I bought some at that price ($6)  I just bought more after fear steps in once again. I also bought into the IPO because of the experience of the management team.

The oil has not gone away. It's premium grade oil. I'm in this for the long haul.

Bucko


----------



## jimski (24 October 2007)

bucko said:


> This is my opinion:
> 
> People's fear about the unknown usually makes prices drop. August 2007 was a classic example when price dropped to just under $6.
> 
> ...




Has anyone got a more detailed theory about dramatic retracing of today?  Sure people fear the unknown but what are people afraid of with AED?


----------



## Aargh! (24 October 2007)

jimski said:


> Has anyone got a more detailed theory about dramatic retracing of today?  Sure people fear the unknown but what are people afraid of with AED?




I've been left scratching my head with this one as well. Intra-day low of $8.36 and finishing down 9.5% @ $8.60. About the only thing I can think of is a production problem with word leaking on the market. Otherwise I wouldn't have thought the reaction to Mondays announcement would still be dragging the SP down.


----------



## blablabla (24 October 2007)

Several factors may be unnerving investors in AED. The SP has toppled over a cliff with this week's flow rate news, and there may be many investors who are simply locking in profits after the recent good run. Of course if there is more bad news to come then to satisfy the ASX listing requirements it should be announced very soon. So - if there are no new announcements for a while this should be interpreted as good news with no reason to sell. 

Other factors affecting all oil stocks today are the oil price is falling, the aus dollar is rising on the back of another probable interest rate rise (a rising aussie reduces profits), and futures are indicating another fall in USA markets tonight which would tend to pull the whole market down.


----------



## Lachlan6 (24 October 2007)

Just a quick technical post. AED is at a critical point at the moment, and has today hit an important juncture of support. Currently in a wave 3, its recent decline is a little deep, however did finish off the lows to be at the 61.8% level of the wave 2 lows to wave 3 highs, coupled with the previous resistance turned support from the July highs. Interesting, however it needs to stay above $8.09, to remain impulsive.


----------



## Santoro (24 October 2007)

Could be a blessing in disguise, thinking if this goes any further with no new ann's then this is a steal....I'll be selling all my other stock and getting in...this is good oil friends....the window of opportunity looks to be open....this could be based on fear and the unknown as AED is a new kid on the block...


----------



## jimski (24 October 2007)

Slightly off topic but there are some interesting parallels between AED and new African independent AFREN.  Afren due for first oil end 2007 / early 2008. 

Lets hope that today's slide is reversed tomorrow in the absence of bad news.


----------



## GREENS (25 October 2007)

GREENS said:


> Laurie can I just say you work entirely on the fact that AED will have smooth transition to production, they have not even produced any oil and are as yet to prove themselves as producer (which is potentially a major concern). Many oil fields in recent times have struggled to achieve and maintain field production at their target levels. This is in no way stating that AED can’t achieve this, but is probably why it trades at a discount, because it has yet to prove its worth to the market as a producer. And yes if everything does go smoothly, then AED is a fundamentally undervalued oiler that will be generating considerably large cash flows. The company may even exceed expectations, who knows, but I think valuing a company without taking into consideration a more conservative view can be very misleading. What happens if oil falls to $40 a barrel next year? It’s probably more sensible to use $US70 a barrel this year and over the following years slowly trend towards a lower average prive (say $50) then find the PV of future cash flows and then see what value you get!





As I’ve stated previously, you should keep a level head in regards to AED and remember until subsequent quarterly reports can confirm constant mature production, that this stock is highly speculative, mainly because it has yet prove its worth to the marker as a producer. In theory it is a solid company with a bright future, but one must remember that the company is a one field wonder (at the moment) and has no production diversification to fall back on if problems arise and hence explains the drop in the share price from such an announcement. The easy money for the time being has been made in this company and any further gains in the foreseeable future rely on the ability of management to prove that the field can produce at constant rates above 20,000BOPD. Don’t take this as criticism of AED, as I personally like the companies outlook. If production comes good i.e. if it can only maintain production around 20,000-25,000BOPD then of course AED is fundamentally undervalued and picking up some stock around $8 is a bargain. Just though I’d bring some equality to the table!


----------



## Icharus (27 October 2007)

Oil prices hit record again in NYMEX trade finished 91.86/bbl
AUD/USD cross rate 91.80

AUD/bbl 100.06 + Tapis premium

AED was pumping 19000 bopd during commisioning phase this was taken from the two announcements dated 12th and 22nd at which approximate storage held was 110,000 and 300,000 resulting in 190,000 gained in a ten day period.

However before anyone starts slashing wrists just remember we do not know how often or restricted the flow rate was during this period. 
A 25% restriction would be 25,000 bopd, a 35% restriction would be 30,000bopd.

That is the problem know one knows exactly what will be the flow rate and so the market is being valued with a pretty large discount for fear. Just like a week before it probably had a premium for greed.

By today AED has it's first oil shipment of 330,000bbls. With only 1 million barrels under contract so far (as announced) this will only take 35 days to fill at 19,000bopd. This means that AED should be able to price oil soon at the above levels. 

Even at 20,000 bopd this will equate to 2 million a day or 700 million a year 
        @ 25,000 bopd ... 2.5 million/day .. 875 million a year (350 day year)

It all depends on where you think oil prices are headed. I suspect that the speculative hedge funds want to give 100USD/barrel a nudge but this is pure speculation. Although in saying this look at commodity markets over the last year or so and you will find a commodity bubble up and then fall only to be replaced by another. Nickel, Zinc, Copper, Uranium, Wheat, Oil?

I hope everyone has a better week next week 

cheers Icharus


----------



## laurie (27 October 2007)

Icarus said:


> Oil prices hit record again in NYMEX trade finished 91.86/bbl
> AUD/USD cross rate 91.80
> 
> AUD/bbl 100.06 + Tapis premium
> ...





Good post Icarus                                                                                                    

cheers laurie


----------



## bigdog (29 October 2007)

SP is doing OK today currently  +$0.32   	  +3.64% with high of $9.35

 AED   	$9.10  	   	  +$0.32   	  +3.64%   	 $high of $9.35  	 543,864 shares  	 $4,950,116  @	 29-Oct 15:46:15

ASX ANN today

29/10/2007	Operations Update 29 October 2007
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00775863

Operations Update
*Crude Offtake*
The first crude cargo of 328,000 barrels was lifted from the Front Puffin FPSO on the weekend. The offloading to the Mayon Spirit trading tanker was achieved in very good time, taking just 15 hours. The offtake, which is a significant milestone for the Company was on schedule. Preliminary testing suggests that both quality and quantity are to specification. The API gravity for the Puffin Crude oil was calculated at 43.6 which correspond with the previously published API. Puffin crude oil sells at a premium to the APPI Tapis bench mark.

The plan forward is now to complete commissioning of the facility which was put on hold leading up to the offloading. Once commissioning has been completed, wells will be tested and oil production optimized. The next offtake is scheduled for mid November.

*Drilling Update, Puffin-10*
The Wilcraft drilling rig has been making excellent progress over the past week drilling Puffin-10 located in the Puffin South West. Drilling of the well is on schedule and is currently drilling at a depth of 2,003 m (MDRT). It is expected that the 9 5/8 casing point will be reached mid week.

Water depth at location is 84 m. The rotary table is 34.8 m above the sea level. All depths are reported as metres from the rotary table (MDRT) unless specified otherwise.

The primary objective of the well is to drill and complete a horizontal section in excess of 200 m of reservoir interval within the Upper Cretaceous (UK1a) sands. The well is expected take approximately 55 days in total to drill and is expected to be completed by mid December. Production from Puffin-10 will be directed through the Modec Venture (MV1) FPSO. Production from Puffin SW is expected to commence in the first half of 2008.


----------



## laurie (29 October 2007)

It seems that the market is still thinking that AED is a risk this announcement together with the rise in price of oil and the general market today AED should be way over $11+  

cheers laurie


----------



## brodion (29 October 2007)

Two positive Days -Is that enough to jump back in or???????????? 
Any thoughts anyone? It can not afford any bad news??This stock may head south?




laurie said:


> It seems that the market is still thinking that AED is a risk this announcement together with the rise in price of oil and the general market today AED should be way over $11+
> 
> cheers laurie


----------



## Caliente (30 October 2007)

the barometer at hotcopper hasnt swung strongly in either direction.

The 20K bopd announcement has spooked a lot of investors and it will take time for those cuts to heal.

I look at these things as buying opportunities


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## Icharus (30 October 2007)

Tapis Benchmark USD94.73/bbl
AUD/USD .9168

AUD 103.32/bbl + premium above tapis

Nice way to start off a day for AED higher oil prices

Cheers Icharus


----------



## bigdog (4 November 2007)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/us100-a-barrel-could-be-days-away/2007/11/02/1193619144456.html

$US100 a barrel could be days away

Jamie Freed
November 3, 2007
Advertisement

AUSTRALIAN oil producers could receive $US100 a barrel within days after the Asia-Pacific benchmark TAPIS crude price reached $US96.95 a barrel yesterday.

Some Australian producers, such as Oil Search and AED Oil, sell their oil at a premium to the TAPIS price, given the higher quality of the crude. The most expensive oil in the Asia-Pacific region yesterday was oil from the Thevenard Island joint venture off Western Australia.

The spot price of Thevenard oil - owned by Chevron, Santos and ExxonMobil - was $US97.80 a barrel, up $US4.29 from Thursday.

The Fat Prophets resources analyst Gavin Wendt said there was "every chance" oil could hit $US100 a barrel this week, given that it had already risen about 20 per cent in the past month. "It's gone from $US80 to $US90 and $US90-plus a barrel very rapidly," he said. "If we see inventories fall once again [in the US], I think it's likely that we'll see oil go through $US100 a barrel."

He said that although it was possible Australian oil could be among the first to breach $US100 a barrel, the most watched price was the West Texas Intermediate, which hit $US96.24 a barrel in New York on Thursday. TAPIS traditionally trades higher.

Merrill Lynch's North American economist, David Rosenberg, said the price of call options contracts to buy oil at $US125 a barrel in December rose 46 per cent this week, and $US100 a barrel options contracts rose to a record.

The biggest Australian beneficiaries of high oil prices are oil producers with unhedged production, premium quality crude and little or no exposure to gas, such as AED and Oil Search.

AED's general manager of crude oil marketing, Trevor Slater, said the high oil price was good from a revenue perspective but the impact had been lessened by the rise of the Australian dollar. "I think what it shows is any event which occurs in the world which jeopardises supply has a really dramatic effect. You saw this recently with the impact of the Turkish border disputes."


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## Go Nuke (7 November 2007)

Any thoughts on AED?

Will it break up..or down.
Another good update on Puffin might help But I think I read that from the 14th of October they expected some work to take up to 55days.
So perhaps no news till early Dec.


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## jimski (8 November 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> Any thoughts on AED?
> 
> Will it break up..or down.
> Another good update on Puffin might help But I think I read that from the 14th of October they expected some work to take up to 55days.
> So perhaps no news till early Dec.





If we get news on successful commissioning of Gas Lift process to increase production rate up, even a little, from 20K-25K bpd then we should break up.


----------



## Aargh! (12 November 2007)

jimski said:


> If we get news on successful commissioning of Gas Lift process to increase production rate up, even a little, from 20K-25K bpd then we should break up.




Puffin SW - Puffin-10 Drilling Update
Drilling of Puffin-10 has made progress in the horizontal section and is currently
drilling ahead at 3608m MD (Measured Depth). Depth along hole is 1997m TVDSS
(True Vertical Depth Subsea). A minor oil bearing sand has been intersected but the
main UK1a sand is expected to be intersected near the existing Puffin-2 well in the
near future.
Production Update – Puffin NE
Most systems at Puffin NE have been commissioned; gaslift has operated on an interim
basis with some tuning and equipment issues preventing the lifting of production to
the revised levels. As indicated in the last update, production in the short term has
been significantly held back to facilitate gaslift and water handling systems
commissioning and accordingly current production is running at approximately 10,000
bopd. The next offtake of approximately 315,000 barrels is scheduled for 29
November 2007. All systems should be fully commissioned and equipment matters
resolved in the short term. A review of production levels will take place following
this.
Down 12.5%. Need some good news for once.


----------



## bigdog (12 November 2007)

The market did not like today announcement!!!!!

Currently down  -1.150   	  -13.04% 

AED   	7.67  	  -1.150   	  -13.04%   	high of  	8.74 and low of  	7.62  	1,424,714 shares 	$11,239,228  @	12-Nov 02:51:43 PM

I sold my AED last week.


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## greenfs (12 November 2007)

I sold my 8,800 shares about 1 week ago but now intend to buy the same amount back at the lower price as I firmly believe that we are at bottom and that the sp should appreciate substantially from here.

The basis of my belief is that there are others more qualified and closer to the action who are very confident that the current teething problems WILL be fixed and production will revert to the forecast 30k bpd.


----------



## GREENS (12 November 2007)

greenfs said:


> I sold my 8,800 shares about 1 week ago but now intend to buy the same amount back at the lower price as I firmly believe that we are at bottom and that the sp should appreciate substantially from here.
> 
> The basis of my belief is that there are others more qualified and closer to the action who are very confident that the current teething problems WILL be fixed and production will revert to the forecast 30k bpd.




greenfs 

I wouldn’t be so sure we have hit a bottom quite yet, this announcement may weigh down on the share price in the ST as investors will be reluctant to jump on this with production already so much lower than initial targets even after the gas lift was introduced. Things have really gone from bad to worse, so don’t see why investors would have an optimistic view over this one at the moment. But I can see why you are so excited because the potential is definitely there *if* things come good.


----------



## Bush Trader (12 November 2007)

At a close today of $7.58, it has broken through the bottom Bollinger band.  I wonder how many stop losses were triggered today for those that rode it from $8 -$11ish.  I watched the trade most of the arvo and it seamed to me that there were accumulators that were timing the pulling of bids to collect the waves of selling. The volume was nothing extraordinary which also leads me to believe that much of the institutional support is intact for the moment.

Cheers

BT

Broker Sentiment courtesy of FNArena as at 2/11/07

Broker	Date	Rating	Recommendation	Target Price	% to Reach Target

Credit Suisse 	02-Nov-07 	1 	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral 	$11.00 	44.7% 
Today almost a month ago the broker downgraded this stock to Neutral, only to reverse that decision today: Outperform. If you're looking for a reason don't look further than the fact that AED's share price has tumbled 19.8% in between both reports. 

Deutsche Bank 	23-Oct-07 	1 	Buy 	$10.65 	40.1% 
Target $10.65 (was $8.30). The broker has revised down its earnings estimates significantly this year to reflect some teething problems as the company starts up production. Despite this it retains its positive rating, lifting its price target to reflect stronger oil prices. 

Macquarie 	23-Oct-07 	3 	Neutral 	$9.04 	18.9% 
An unexpectedly high water cut has led to production downgrades at Puffin, and the broker has responded by reducing earnings by 21% in FY08 and 09. The broker suspects this production will ultimately be lost, and while highlighting Puffin's upside, it warns of its high risk. Target falls from $9.94 to $9.04. 

UBS 	23-Oct-07 	1 	Buy 	$11.18 	47.1% 
Water in the oil at Puffin have led to a production downgrade and hence earnings reductions of 15% and 14.3% in FY08-09. The broker still rates AED Buy on Puffin upside, but warns this depends a lot on a successful ramp-up. Target falls from $11.48 to $11.18.


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## Go Nuke (12 November 2007)

Indeed...how aweful was that action today!

Only comfort I got was that its good to see insto's get it wrong sometimes too (issuing buys etc) as BT pointed out.


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## bigdog (13 November 2007)

Todays Age stated on trading November 12:

AED Oil sank $1.24, or 14.1 per cent, to $7.58. 

Its Puffin project, which was supposed to produce between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels of oil a day, is producing significantly less oil than expected.


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## Sean K (13 November 2007)

Looks to be only temporary to me.

Well, the excuse seems to say it's temporary.



> Shares in AED Oil Limited (AED) dropped 11.3% after the company reiterated that production at its Puffin NE site has been significantly held back *to facilitate gaslift and water handling systems commissioning *and accordingly current production is running at approximately 10,000bopd. The company said the next offtake of about 315,000 barrels is scheduled for 29 November 2007. *AED said all systems should be fully commissioned and equipment matters resolved in the short term*. A review of production levels will take place following this, AED noted.




11.3% Lemmings!


----------



## Knobby22 (13 November 2007)

The scary bit is the next line you didn't highlight, kennas.

"A review of production levels will take place following this, AED noted."


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## jonojpsg (13 November 2007)

Yeah, but the reassuring bit Kennas didn't highlight either is the first sentence "production has been significantly held back"  One assumes this means that the 25000bpd is still achievable??


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## Sean K (13 November 2007)

jonojpsg said:


> Yeah, but the reassuring bit Kennas didn't highlight either is the first sentence "production has been significantly held back"  One assumes this means that the 25000bpd is still achievable??



Yeah, I can only see a positive in that, and the review of production is just a throw away line. 

Unless they're looking for an out if things are still going pear shaped. 

I may be biased too, I hold NWE....


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## dj_420 (13 November 2007)

Yeah I sold 75% of my holdings at 9.80, then sold the rest today, mgt have not done the greatest job IMO of keeping market informed etc.

I would rather be on a stock that is rising and does not have production problems.


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## Bush Trader (13 November 2007)

It was an interesting bounce off the bottom today.  Does any else have an oversold feeling now that potentially plenty of stop losses have been triggered.  I feel like trading the counter trend, not holding ATM.

Cheers


BT


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## bigdog (14 November 2007)

Today's SMH; the last item reported on page two.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/cbd/dick-pratt-buys-a-few-doughnuts/2007/11/13/1194766675765.html?page=2

*No free money*

AED Oil has quietly withdrawn a resolution from its coming AGM to grant chairman David Dix a healthy swag of options. Dix was due to receive 250,000 options at an exercise price of $7, conditional on reaching a key milestone of production of first oil at its Puffin well off north-western Australia.

We can only wonder if having reached that first target and it being a bit underwhelming, some didn't like the idea of granting so many options that are already in the money.


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## kevien (14 November 2007)

The SP is still disappointing. To make things worse,oil price also slided to $91. AED really needs a good announcement to push the price up.


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## OBK (14 November 2007)

unfortunately bought in at $8.75 a few days ago expecting some good news

i'm hoping the current production problems are temporary and they get up to the forecasted 30K bopd


----------



## sfx (14 November 2007)

OBK said:


> .... i'm hoping the current production problems are temporary and they get up to the forecasted 30K bopd




And also hope that the drilling for the Puffin SW doesn't deliver any bad news. Anything bad with regards to the announcements here will only drag us all down further ! 

Extract of one of their announcements :

"The well is expected take approximately 55 days in total to drill and is expected to be completed by mid December. Production from Puffin-10 will be directed through the Modec Venture (MV1) FPSO. Production from Puffin SW is expected to commence in the first half of 2008."

So by the time they complete wirelog and analysis work of the cores, it will be new year by the time they make any conclusive announcement.

Given that they haven't even put a month to the commencement, things are very uncertain - hence expect more volatility with this one....


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## greenfs (14 November 2007)

Given the current climate the AGM in Melbourne next week should make interesting viewing & I have committed to attend along with another investor.

I am still VERY POSITIVE re the future of the current well and the long-term future of the sp.

It will be interesting to see if there may be time for + ann prior to the AGM. Probably better to hold any good news until the meeting if they can provided they are not seen to be in breach of any ASX protocols.

I will provide a post asap after the meeting provided someone has not already beaten me to it.


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## Go Nuke (14 November 2007)

greenfs said:


> Given the current climate the AGM in Melbourne next week should make interesting viewing & I have committed to attend along with another investor.
> 
> I am still VERY POSITIVE re the future of the current well and the long-term future of the sp.
> 
> ...




Thx Greensf that would be greatly appriciated. 
Dont worry OBK, your not the only one that bought in at a high price
I'm not going to take a loss and I still think that oil may hit $100 yet (xmas IS just around the corner)
I'm slowly developing some patience


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## EZZA (17 November 2007)

picked up a small parcel at 7.20.  couldn't resist after seeing if fall so hard.  hopefully we have seen the worst of it.

normally don't buy into stock on the way down, i'm hoping they sort out production issues. should be much better once resolved.  disappointing that we wont be cashing in so much with record oil prices with production significantly decreased.


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## strayda11 (17 November 2007)

Ezza... 

A lot of analysts are picking Oil to remain near this level for years to come...

The biggest Q I have is what they'll stabilise rates at, and is there going to be a possible downgrade to the size of the field? 

I hold- and have a bigger holding again in NWE.


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## greenfs (18 November 2007)

I note there was a strong buy from Bailleu as a story in the financial section of the Melbourne Sunday Sun this morning.


----------



## Aargh! (18 November 2007)

greenfs said:


> I note there was a strong buy from Bailleu as a story in the financial section of the Melbourne Sunday Sun this morning.




Hi greenfs, what were the particulars of the story? Are they expecting the current teething problems to be rectified?


----------



## GreatPig (18 November 2007)

I also bought some on Wednesday for $7.17 (take that as a warning folks! ), following the hammer bar on decent volume. Wednesday also had very high volume and closed up off the low.

As well as that, it's just below the 61.8% Fib level with some support at $7 from back in August & September.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## bigdog (20 November 2007)

Is there anyone attending the AED AGM in Melbourne tomorrow?

The Annual General Meeting of the members of AED Oil Limited
Date: Wednesday 21 November 2007
Time: 10.00am Melbourne time
Location: Stamford Plaza Melbourne (Thornbury Room)
111 Little Collins Street
Melbourne
Victoria 3000


----------



## GREENS (20 November 2007)

Jumped on this today with a fairly small parcel, I think the words of brokers that BT posted a while back perfectly state the situation of AED.



Bush Trader said:


> Macquarie 23-Oct-07
> While highlighting Puffin's upside, it warns of its high risk. Target falls from $9.94 to $9.04.
> 
> UBS 23-Oct-07
> The broker still rates AED a Buy on Puffin upside, but warns this depends a lot on a successful ramp-up. Target falls from $11.48 to $11.18.




Support seems to be holding well around the $7 mark which has giving me a little bit more confidence. If this support is breached, looks like the next stop is around $5.20 (techies your views are more than welcome on this lower target). So if more bad news is to come I wouldn’t be writing off this lower target being hit, even if it is just temporary. In contrast if the next announcement is positive then we should see this start to appreciate again. Still fairly high risk until production rates can be consistently maintained at rates above 15,000BOPD.


----------



## Bush Trader (20 November 2007)

GREENS said:


> Support seems to be holding well around the $7 mark which has giving me a little bit more confidence. If this support is breached, looks like the next stop is around $5.20 (techies your views are more than welcome on this lower target). So if more bad news is to come I wouldn’t be writing off this lower target being hit, even if it is just temporary. In contrast if the next announcement is positive then we should see this start to appreciate again. Still fairly high risk until production rates can be consistently maintained at rates above 15,000BOPD.





I love a punter.  Kennas call this type of trading catching "falling knives", I call it a counter trend oportunity, however unless there is worse news to come I think the intra-day low of $6.85 will hold.  Refer to the chart below volumes are on the decline, which to me says a lot of "hot money" has been washed out on stop losses, or the more risk adverse have taken some of their money off the table.  I think the key to trading this one is to watch any increase in volume togeether with positive or negative price action as a prelude to production announcements.


Cheers


BT


----------



## greenfs (20 November 2007)

The AGM tomorrow should make interesting viewing. I will post on anything that I think is worthwhile and not included in the announcement


----------



## bigdog (21 November 2007)

ASX ANN today for today's AGM at 10:00 AM

21/11/2007  	 09:12   	Managing Directors Presentation - 2007 AGM
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00785343

21/11/2007 	09:11  	 	Chairman`s Address - 2007 AGM
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00785340


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## Aargh! (21 November 2007)

Market has been cruel to AED on opening... -6.62% within minutes of open. Wish I could be at the AGM for a decent explanation from Ken


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## bigdog (21 November 2007)

Aargh! said:


> Market has been cruel to AED on opening... -6.62% within minutes of open. Wish I could be at the AGM for a decent explanation from Ken




The share price is currently -$0.60   	  -8.45%

 AED   	$6.50  	   	  -$0.60   	  -8.45%   	 high of $7.01 & low of 	 $6.45  	 795,203 shares  	 $5,412,065  @	 21-Nov 10:18:48


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## dj_420 (21 November 2007)

I sold 3/4 of my shares at 10.00 and the rest a couple of days ago at 7.50. I did not like the constant downgrades of production, increasing water cut, ongoing issues.

Now mgt are hopeful of achieving 20 k per day, WTF?!? It was 30 k plus at one stage.

I guess thats the pain with oilers! This was my first one and made some good profits although could have been a lot more.


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## Bush Trader (21 November 2007)

It was a good bounce off $5.90 mark, after what can only be described as a rush to the exits. I’m now holding. 

Any elaborations on the AGM, did management look nervous?  I read the announcements, however I would like to know if there was confidence in the rhetoric.

Cheers


BT


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## GREENS (21 November 2007)

As I have stated previously on this thread, the volatility is to be expected with this stock, hence the reason why I only put gambling money on it (200 @ $7). I can only laugh at my situation, but feel sorry for those people that have considerable amounts of money in this stock; the fundamentals are there, management has just failed miserably to deliver and hence the reason for my previous posts warning about the likely downside and high risk, given the company had no field diversification or proven record as an operator. Looks like $5.20 is the next target and by the looks of it will be hitting it sooner rather than latter. Investor confidence will be very low for a while and think it will continue to place strong selling pressure on this stock in the shorter term. 

If 15,000-20,000BOPD can be maintained then this is getting oversold considering medium term oil prices of AUD80. But who knows production/development seem to be getting worse by the day. Looks like they are having problems with Puffin SE also, reservoir complexities, which may result in delayed production from this field (previously due on stream in 1H 2008). Anyways ill be holding on to my little parcel for a while to see what happens and may pick up a few more if it hits the $4.50 mark.


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## Go Nuke (21 November 2007)

OMG

I thought I did well getting in when it first bounced off the mid $8's, so bought in at about $9.

Boy was I wrong!
Well its good to see if I'm right that people rejected the issue of options to the executives and the adoption of the renumeration report.

wow. I too only bought a small parcel in AED and I guess thats a good thing.
I didn't see anything that would warrant such a huge decline in the share price myself. I guess there are alot of investors who expect alot more.


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## Aargh! (21 November 2007)

I have learnt from this stock the importance of setting Stop Loss orders and sticking to them. I had confidence in management that production could be stabilised at 15,000-20,000 bopd upon first round of bad news. So I gave this one a little more freedom to move. Mistake 
Having 7,000 shares I was sitting on a tidy profit only to see it vanish


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## chops_a_must (21 November 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> It was a good bounce off $5.90 mark, after what can only be described as a rush to the exits. I’m now holding.
> 
> Any elaborations on the AGM, did management look nervous?  I read the announcements, however I would like to know if there was confidence in the rhetoric.
> 
> ...




I'd say there is a very good case for these guys to answer to ASIC. They have not been continually disclosing information, have not been giving updates on the SW exploration, and today we get the reason: It isn't going to produce. About 3 weeks late however.

I got in a big argument with these guys when they refused to give reasons to the market about delays in production. They told me the "wind" was the cause for several months of delays. Hmmm.... yes. So I sold the majority at that point.

But now it looks as though there isn't going to be significant production upside until at least 2009. Which is a massive hit from the forecast 1H 2008. Can't see this going anywhere but down in the medium term.


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## blablabla (21 November 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> OMG
> Well its good to see if I'm right that people rejected the issue of options to the executives and the adoption of the renumeration report.




Today's AGM announcement said that the remuneration report was passed on a show of hands. The numbers shown in the announcement are those of the proxy votes cast before the meeting. According to the chairman's address, the executive options were withdrawn before the meeting because production at Puffin NE has not met with the company's expectations.

If 20,000 bopd is achieved when commissioning of Puffin 7 & 8 is completed then this would be a good result. The question is how reliable is this latest estimate?


----------



## EZZA (21 November 2007)

is anyone still in this one?, or am i the only one left.  LOL
massive drop today. I'm figuring its too late to cut losses on this one now the is dropped so low.

bought in at 7.20, now at 5.80.  figured it would recover eventually its not like the reserves have disappeared.  all the brokers seemed to be backing aed for the even when it was in the 9.00 range.


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## kevien (21 November 2007)

EZZA said:


> is anyone still in this one?, or am i the only one left.  LOL
> massive drop today. I'm figuring its too late to cut losses on this one now the is dropped so low.
> 
> bought in at 7.20, now at 5.80.  figured it would recover eventually its not like the reserves have disappeared.  all the brokers seemed to be backing aed for the even when it was in the 9.00 range.




Hi EZZA,
I am still holding it. I bought in at 7.73 and I bet there would be good annoucement at AGM, which turned out to be the opposite.
When I look at bloody drop today, I feel so painful....

the oil price reaches new high today, while we suffer such much.
The volatile environment makes the future more vague.... I wonder if we should sell off and take the loss or wait until it recovers....


Regards,
Kevin


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## Go Nuke (21 November 2007)

Well as EZZa pointed out, some major instos were rating it as a "buy" not too long ago and they still have oil....so.

Its too big a loss for me to take.So I guess it will just go to the back drawer.

I'd be happy to get out if it reaches the old highs.


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## greenfs (21 November 2007)

The CEO turned up and spoke at the meeting with what looked like a golf cap on his head, which did not impress me one little bit. He stated that as CEO his role would be more back seat working closely with CFO (Hmmm). 
Other points noted included:
-Need to address water levels and that oil prodn will stay down in the short-term
- 20k bpd is new optimum prodn level once the teething problems have been fixed (ie post commissioning)
- Drilling has resulted in some sand failure as a local effect only
- Stated that one well providing the most water
- Oil reserve will stay unchanged
- Updates will be regularly posted
- Will take from 3-6 Mos to get it right with the short-term timetable being Complete commissioing (2 weeks) then Individual testing (4-6 weeks) then analysis (2-4 weeks) then play with/tweeking equipment (unspecified time) 
- Further 6 wells planned & this should help to plan & increase prodn levels
- Talbot field as per original forecast is expected to yield 5k bpd, but by deploying horizontal wells it is hoped that this will result in higher daily prodn values 
- Whilst AED Oil has a letter of intent to be supplied another offload vessel for SW Sector, this has been placed temporarily on hold to avoid/defer the cost pending continued drilling.

I trust I have this info about right but would invite others to correct anything that may be in accurate.

I was disappointed in the presentation but will persist with my new holding purchased at the recently reduced share price, although I am now $10k in the red.


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## sfx (21 November 2007)

Great post Greenfs - thanks for the low down on the AGM. I would have gone myself, but I'm locked into work in Sydney town...

I like your comment about his golf hat - the CEO was probably coming back from his morning golf round, sitting pretty on all the $$ he's making ! 

My opinions on the whole AED story thus far ->

* AED has made a whole heap of promises, and hasn't delivered to the promises. 

* As I posted earlier, I believe their comms could have improved dramatically, and they should have erred on the side of caution as first time oil producers. A degree of caution and not being too optimistic on the figures would have helped their cause.

With the publicity and spot light, the market has expected I think, way too much and have hammered this stock down !

Should production rates get to the 20k figure then as someone mentioned earlier, AED has been sold down way too much.

For those AED pros out there, any comments over the following points?

1. AED reserve estimates and recoverability factors - whats everyone's consensus over this - how much have they overstated on this one (if at all)?! Its a total of 100 million barrels at the moment I believe, but could they have been bullish on this too (considering their over estimate of the production rates) ?!

2. I expect there will be further selling down of this one, as the schedule has another offtake for 29th Nov I think, and I don't think that the 320,000 odd barrels of oil will be met.

Anyone?!?


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## doctorj (21 November 2007)

greenfs said:


> - 20k bpd is new optimum prodn level once the teething problems have been fixed (ie post commissioning)



From 10k - 20k is quite a jump for just "teething" problems.  Has anyone come across such drastic jumps in production during commissioning?


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## chops_a_must (21 November 2007)

sfx said:


> 1. AED reserve estimates and recoverability factors - whats everyone's consensus over this - how much have they overstated on this one (if at all)?! Its a total of 100 million barrels at the moment I believe, but could they have been bullish on this too (considering their over estimate of the production rates) ?!
> 
> Anyone?!?



There is a 30% write down already in the reserves I would say, as they have all but given up on SW. And there must now be big questions about the other reserves, because of the water cut, as recoverability was said to be quite high. In the order of 70% I think. With a thirding of the production, there is a massive increase in p/b costs, and with more water than expected I'd say this will get out of hand.

So even being conservative on the write down, you could perhaps factor in a 50% write down in reserves.

EDIT: And by write down, I mean recoverability, not the actual amount of oil there itself.

Doesn't look good.


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## Bush Trader (22 November 2007)

Looks like I now own my very own share in a "Knife".  If sell volumes contine to rise over the next couple of days then you can bet that the institutional investors are bailing out.  Reminds me of a little company I had few shares in once...........................Hardman (HDR), the only way good thing to come out of that was when they were taken over!'




Cheers



BT


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## tronic72 (22 November 2007)

Hi, Bush Trader.

There's large volume jumping off this stock but I think it's a knee-jerk reaction. The big boys often follow each other which could account for the huge volume of sales. 

The share now offers much better value around the $5.5 mark and that's also the resistance mark the market has had for AED, so I think you'll see some of the damage undone. With oil prices going up and up and up I don't think investors will be able to ignore this share for much longer.


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## bigdog (22 November 2007)

The AED SP is very sad to see; I got two weeks ago!

Today AED   	 $5.25  	   	  -$0.55   	  -9.48%   		 591,914  	shares $3,221,271 @ 	 22-Nov 10:14:07


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## GREENS (22 November 2007)

Re-thought my position on AED and bailed out this morning for a loss of $300. Management seem to have no idea what is going on and when they release announcements either overstate or over promise. They just seem to inform the market when it suits them. I don’t like a company I can’t trust. As many have stated in previous posts 100m recoverable barrels, could be way off the mark. Puffin SE looks highly uncertain now and who knows production problems could continue to get worse at Puffin NE and hence lead to lost reserves also. My original assessment when jumping on AED was that Puffin SE would be coming online in the 1H of 2008, now we don’t even know whether this will produce oil at all now. The upside is now significant limited while the downside seems to be endless and if production/devt problems get any worse this will be back to near its floating price. Even if Puffin NE gets going, I don’t see where the upside is going to come in the future, if they are already having reservoir problems in the block. As I said it was a complete gamble with this company and was always the case from day one. Good luck to those who stick it out, you have balls, ill give you that, hope it comes good for you!

“AED OIL has turned from a market darling into a cautionary tale in just a month after its much-hyped Puffin oilfield failed to deliver on initial forecasts.
Investors yesterday wiped almost $200 million - or 18 per cent - off AED's market value when it revealed further problems with its two main projects.
AED, which floated at 85c in 2005, saw its shares soar to a record $11.40 on October 17 when it started production at the Puffin field off the Northern Territory. The chairman, David Dix, took advantage of the milestone, selling a tiny portion of his 16 per cent stake in the company for $636,000.
But since then, AED has had nothing but problems. The company's shares closed $1.30 lower at $5.80 yesterday after the market lost confidence in its bullish forecasts.

AED had predicted peak production of 30,000 barrels a day at its Puffin North-East field, but yesterday said it was only likely to achieve 20,000 barrels a day without drilling more wells at a cost of $US40 million ($45 million) each. The field has been producing water earlier than expected, stretching the project's handling systems.

AED also disappointed the market by revealing its key growth project - the Puffin South-West field - was more geologically complex than previously thought. The company suspended development of the $US200 million project - thought to be about the same size as the Puffin North-East field - pending further studies.

Given AED owns 100 per cent of Puffin - unusual in an industry known for joint ventures - some investors have expressed concerns there is a relative lack of information about the project since it is all coming from one party.
In May AED said it was likely to have more than 100 million barrels of recoverable oil from its Puffin fields.

The company's managing director, Ken Tregonning, maintained his optimism, despite yesterday's share-price plunge. "We actually didn't see it as much of a downgrade, but the market did," he said. "It's entirely possible we'll be doing 30,000 barrels a day from Puffin NE in May [after drilling another well]."
But a BBY analyst, Scott Ashton, who does not formally cover the stock, said AED was a "very risky story" compared to peers such as AWE, ARC Energy and Roc Oil.

"Some companies are stretching the limits of the strict Society of Petroleum Engineers definitions of reserves and resources," he said.”

Jamie Freed, November 22, 2007 (SMH)


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## bigdog (22 November 2007)

ASX ANN

22/11/2007	 	Response to AGM Questions
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00785983

In response to a number of questions raised at the Company's AGM yesterday, and subsequent technical presentation, the Company makes the following points of clarification:

*North East Production*

 The occurrence of water as part of the production stream is a normal occurrence for a reservoir structure like Puffin NE and is in the range of production scenarios anticipated.

 Certain short term commissioning issues (including gas lift, metering and water handling) have been constraining recent production rates.

 These three commissioning issues are production equipment related, not reservoir related. All of these issues are expected to be rectified within 3 months and the Company anticipates a target production rate building to approximately 20,000 barrels per day during this period.

 The Company intends to maximise oil production to the extent of the FPSO processing capacity and to that end an additional production well is being planned for the first half of 2008. As a result, it is expected that production levels following this drilling program will further increase. This plan is in line with the Company’s previously stated drilling strategy.

*Financial Performance*

 It is noted that the Total Operating Costs for the North East (which are predominantly fixed costs) are in the order of USD$9m per month.

 Accordingly, even at the current production rates, the Company is already achieving significant operating cash flow and profitability from the North East Region.

*Reserves*

 The Company reviews its Reserves and Resources on a regular basis, taking into account all relevant factors including recent drilling results, results from reservoir studies, production information and oil price movements. Based on information to date the Company’s Reserves and Resources position (as per independent expert reports) is consistent with previous announcements

 The Company continues to work on a development plan, including additional wells to fully exploit the NE Reserves, the potential development plans for the SW and feasibility studies into the development for recoverable oil in Talbot and other exploration leads and prospects. Recovery of oil will always be subject to suitable field development.

*South West Region*

As discussed, the Company continues its appraisal of the South West Region through its drilling program of Puffin 10. Development options are being evaluated and include the completion of Puffin-10, the re-entry of Puffin-9 and the drilling of additional wells.


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## Icharus (22 November 2007)

Does anyone know what exactly are the three pieces of equipment that are causing all these "teething problems". 

It is amazing how economical some people can be with the truth. To think that prior to yesterdays announcement of "opps no oil in SW" otherwise known as "technically challenging geology" the last announcement was saying "minor oil bearing sand has been intersected but the main UK1a is expected to be intersected near Puffin2 in the near future.

10 days later they announce somewhat whimsically that the intersection was the UK1a and that they had also drilled the lower sands and were now onto drilling a 2nd track to try to find deeper UK1a. 

I just wonder at what point did they know ?
I cannot imagine it was monday night that they decided to drill deeper and then tuesday the ST2.

I must admit to feeling like an exceedingly dumb bunning when comes AED


----------



## OBK (22 November 2007)

finally couldn't stand it no more and got out at $5.40

lost $2K on this one 

it's been an extremely disappointing adventure considering it was at almost $12 at one point


----------



## gdzack (22 November 2007)

It's always better to get out before it climbs to the peak than it starts declining. I sold all out when it was 9.49 and it climbed to 11.00 later. But now it is only 5.50. I was lucky not to wait for long. Got some nice profit from this share that's good enough for me. I am not so greedy


----------



## REA (22 November 2007)

Bell Potter gave a buy on this share today,  they did admit it was speculative but thought it had been oversold.  They thought it may be worth as high as $9.82 once problems had been sorted out.


----------



## jimski (22 November 2007)

What the heck is going on with this share?  I am in Europe - woke up this morning expecting to see the SP at around $4.50 or worse and rubbing the sleep from my eyes I see we are up 6%.  It would seem that AED has been oversold despite doom and gloom predictions. My guess is that institutions started getting back into this today fearful of being left behind as the SP regains its strength.  

I was about to place my last sell order but will hang in here for a little longer. For me the big question is "Is AED a one trick pony or not?".


----------



## Bush Trader (22 November 2007)

What a ride, the haemorrhaging appears to have been stemmed for the moment.  I have never seen a share in my portfolio that far in the red, recover back into positive territory by the arvo.  Obviously the smart money thinks that the stock is in oversold territory.  I have attached the 2 broker upgrades and comments courtesy of the FN Arena database today


Cheers


BT  


*Broker	Date	Rating	Recommendation	Target Price	% to Reach Target

UBS 	22-Nov-07 	1 	Buy 	$9.82 	58.6% 

The broker revised downwards FY07 December quarter production forecast to 14,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from 20,000 bopd after the company confirmed oil production at Puffin Main will be below expectations during commissioning. Other reasons are ongoing topside issues and riskier outlook for reserves at Puffin SW resulting in a cut in its target price to $9.82 from $10.19. At the same time, the broker has maintained the buy rating because it believes the stock looks very cheap and has potential for increases to production once fully commissioned. However, it has stressed the speculative nature of the shares. 

Deutsche Bank 	22-Nov-07 	1 	Buy 	$12.15 	96.3% 

Target $12.15 (was $13.35). The company has announced some production is being deferred due to technical issues, the broker noting it has not been lost but will impact on sentiment in the short-term. It sees the stock as oversold at current levels so it retains its Buy rating. *


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## laurie (22 November 2007)

And you wonder why those that sold may regret their decision one of the most important part of the announcement that went unnoticed* $9M*cost per month now even if they only produce 20000boopd do the sums at 160m shares on issue and see what dividends/capital returns could be on offer 

cheers laurie


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## sfx (22 November 2007)

laurie said:


> And you wonder why those that sold may regret their decision one of the most important part of the announcement that went unnoticed* $9M*cost per month now even if they only produce 20000boopd do the sums at 160m shares on issue and see what dividends/capital returns could be on offer
> 
> cheers laurie




Indeed I think we're all looking at the bad side, and I bet its just what the Institutions want us to think. 

I still think that the only things that will endanger the SP are 3 factors:

1. Continued technical issues with excessive water, decreasing production;
2. Down grade of reserves and bullish over estimations of recoverability;
3. The continuation of the CEO wearing golf hats to AGMs; Hahahaaaa


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## jimski (27 November 2007)

Is there a total loss of interest in discussing the stock now or has everyone been concentrated on elections?!

It would seem we are in limbo with the SP until we receive some further good (or bad) news.  Do we have any indication when we can expect any more news?


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## grace (28 November 2007)

wow.  This stock has gone from +$11, to $5 today in a couple of weeks.  Does anyone think this one is worth buying now?


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## OBK (28 November 2007)

More bad - though expected - news for AED today.

The suspension of the Puffin-10 well.
SP has taken another battering.  Down 60c since the ANN.


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## dj_420 (28 November 2007)

AED is not looking good now. SW is looking in doubt, abandoned the well which originally had 40 million barrels estimates.

Will there be more bad news for these guys? It seems the bad news does not actually stop!

Disc: No longer hold AED, I sold up closer to $10 when problems first emerged.


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## BHP (28 November 2007)

Is this now oversold? My amateur valuation is as follows.

Say worst case (famous last words) production remains at current levels at10,000 bopd. Margin of AU$40 per barrel (is this conservative?) works out to $145 mill per annum. 117million shares on issue so $1.23 EPS or at SP $4.50P/E of 3.7!!

not sure what "verified" reserves they have (anyone know?) but at 10,000 bopd thats only 3.6 million a year so if they have 40 million in reserves seems cheap to me.

Also if they have abandoned Puffin 10 are they spending any of their capital on anything else?

I admit i got little idea about valuing these things so comments from those with more experience appreciated. It's now on my watchlist.


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## Go Nuke (28 November 2007)

OMG

AED is now the biggest stuff up in investing I have ever made!
I cant believe how badly this company has gone in the last few weeks.
I feel sorry for anyone who followed their brokers reccomendation acouple of weeks back to "buy"!

Guess this company will go to the back drawer for me now. Might take it off my watchlist too to prevent anymore mild depression or heart murmurs..lol.


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## dj_420 (28 November 2007)

BHP said:


> Is this now oversold? My amateur valuation is as follows.
> 
> Say worst case (famous last words) production remains at current levels at10,000 bopd. Margin of AU$40 per barrel (is this conservative?) works out to $145 mill per annum. 117million shares on issue so $1.23 EPS or at SP $4.50P/E of 3.7!!
> 
> ...




Thats assuming there is no more downgrades and their reserves valuations hold up. I dont think the market believes much that is coming from mgt now.


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## bigdog (28 November 2007)

Will drop out of the ASX 200 no doubt!!!!!!!!!!!

Terrible day and past two weeks for all shareholders.

 AED   	$4.48  	   	  -$1.12   	  -20.00%   	  	 high of 	 $5.83  	and low $4.47  	 2,563,012 shares 	 $12,719,879  	 @ 28-Nov 16:10:56

Top 20 of Whole Market and AED is number 11 today of biggest falls
Rises: 420 Falls: 684 Steadies: 769 Nov 28, 2007 4:20:02 PM 

11 - AED ▼ -20.00% .. -$1.120 .. $4.480 .. AED OIL LTD ▼


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## Fed23 (28 November 2007)

This dam share has caused me nothing but headaches.

I cant believe it fell so much in a short amount of time. In less than a month it's reduced to half its value.

I got no idea what is going to save them, but I hope something does. 

They should just announce they've found iron ore in their wells or something.


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## kevien (28 November 2007)

I am going to dead. I dont know if there are more bad news ahead. Anyone has any idea about when the next announcement will come?
I am really worried this stock will go below the current price.


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## imajica (28 November 2007)

I thought I was being overly cautious when I sold out at exactly  $10 -for once I did the right thing - It is a real shame that AED is gettting punished  - it will still make a good yearly profit - the market has clearly over-reacted!


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## Icharus (28 November 2007)

imajica said:


> I thought I was being overly cautious when I sold out at exactly  $10 -for once I did the right thing - It is a real shame that AED is gettting punished  - it will still make a good yearly profit - the market has clearly over-reacted!




Want to know imajica who got a better sell price than you? Look at the Appendix 3y that was posted earlier this month by David Dix.
Sold more than 56,000 shares at $11.29 now tell me he didn't know what was about to happen! I know it is only a small amount of his holding but it sure goes a long way to filling the belly between drinks!


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## sfx (28 November 2007)

kevien said:


> I am going to dead. I dont know if there are more bad news ahead. Anyone has any idea about when the next announcement will come?
> I am really worried this stock will go below the current price.




I believe they said they would make weekly announcements for the SW, but with the development now on hold, then I would think the next news would be for the offtake closer to the end of this month, or next month sometime if their track record for 'keeping to schedules' are anything to go by. 

Apart from that it looks like end of first quarter, half year next year that any good news (if any) will be released....

I personally think this is over-sold, and indeed I know a few brokers are 'suggesting' the same thing. Just when you think this can't get any worse........

Comments?!

As suggested by FED23, perhaps they should announce they've struck Iron Ore, or better still reserves of 100mill oz of GOLD...

I'm changing my Avatar or I might be spat on...


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## Fed23 (29 November 2007)

Got this from my stock broker.. which I should kill for taking his advice

The fact that they are trading at this price is inexplicable, and more highlights the fact that the market is extremely volatile (the most volatile in history), and nervous.

The company is producing oil at 10000 barrels a day, which is roughly $1million a day.  This is unquestionable.  That would be $365 million a year.  For a company that is now worth $700 million.

Assuming no further exploration success anywhere else in the future, it would still be the cheapest oil stock on the market.



We got in contact with one of the director's today.  And they have every intention of getting the current production well at Puffin NE up to 30000 barrels a day by late next year.  This was what they orignally targetted, and would put annual revenue at close to $1 billion.


The people selling in the market are scared of the volatility, scared of the falling share price, and of the unknown.

The 3 major factors effecting the price are :


    * general global market nervousness.
    * delays in getting to 30000 barrels a day from this first well.
    * Puffin SW where there was to be another production well commencing Q1 next year.


Puffin SW was previously thought to have another 40million barrels of recoverable oil.  The market by selling it down to these prices is saying there isn't any there at all.  That oil just doesn't disappear.  They have said that it is 'geologically more complex then first thought'.  The director said that they will produce from there, it is only a question of time and testing. 

What we do know for sure is that 2 adjacent wells to Puffin SW, woodlea and puffin 9 have already proven 18 million barrels of oil.  They will produce in time.

Its during these hard times which really test your conviction about your research.  But let me say that UBS Warburg, the big investment bank has bought 5 million shares in the past 2 weeks.  And UBS and Deutsche bank both maintain buy recommendations on the stock with $9.80 and $12.15 price targets on the stock.  And they only reevaluated this last week.


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## doctorj (29 November 2007)

Fed23 said:


> The company is producing oil at 10000 barrels a day, which is roughly $1million a day. This is unquestionable. That would be $365 million a year. For a company that is now worth $700 million.



It all depends at what oil price (or conversely flow rates) the field was modelled to be commercial to.  Your first step would be to subtract the lease on Front Puffin (about $190k a day from memory).  Then there is staff, other leased equipment, overheads, production taxes, depreciation/amortisation on capex related to the wells, NWE's royalty etc etc.

The next thing to consider is if they've already committed to additional FPSO's for other parts of the field that are now more doubtful and so on...


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## jonojpsg (29 November 2007)

Well I'm in deep as well - bought at 9.63 on my margin account and watched it go to 11.40 - yippee I thought - then sat back and stupidly!! watched it plummet, making up margin calls all the way down.  I have a settlement on a block of land I sold coming in at the end of Jan but I wish I had it now so I could dump it all on AED, which just has to be way oversold based on any sort of reasonable analysis 

Costs for Puffin are $9m per month are they not?  And anyone who thinks oil is going to go back below maybe $80 a barrel is kidding themselves.


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## strayda11 (29 November 2007)

Its oversold- based on what we know.. 

But theres a few BIG fears:

1. possibly downgrade of North field...

2. no recoverability from South..

3. flow rates won't go any higher than 10k, and will only head lower from here.. 

I hold- wishing I had sold at 11 too(bought in at $6 however, so not gutted!).. 

Think we'll see 20k+ in next few months, and possible commission of SW in 2008...

Can't see any reason to sell now-either you sold at $9-11, or ride out the storm. Good luck!


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## VViCKiD (29 November 2007)

AED smashed again.... 
When is this going to get better ?!!?!?!?
I can't believe this crazy stock !!!


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## Fed23 (29 November 2007)

I bought in at $9, if it goes lower I might be tempted to buy in again to lower me average per share. Then sell when I get even again


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## Santoro (29 November 2007)

Fed23 said:


> I bought in at $9, if it goes lower I might be tempted to buy in again to lower me average per share. Then sell when I get even again




Hoping to get in at the $3 level tomorrow....this has been dissappointing, simply = what a **** up, still the oil is still their just costing a fair whack to get it.
Need to get some ann's with the flow increasing...sooner the better, it should stop the price from floundering on the floor like a drunk with a skin full.


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## VViCKiD (29 November 2007)

Oil is up ... hopefully there is a bit of a rally for AED..
how many units has everyone got ?? What did everyone get in at ?


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2007)

VVicked,

Although not against ASF policy, it seems a bit rude to me to ask people to divulge personal information.

It is up to members if they say how much they own etc without being asked.

Just my 

thanks 

Prawn


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## VViCKiD (29 November 2007)

Sorry.... noobie mistake... 
I bought in and lost a truck load ... just wondering wat happened to everyone else ... that's all


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2007)

No problem. 

Im sure some people would prefer to state it as you have rather than giving exact figures and numbers 

Welcome to ASF btw.


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## strayda11 (29 November 2007)

I bought 6 months ago (about where things stand now)- watched it go all the way to $11, and all the way back down...

Hindsights a wonderful thing.. 

I do think at current prices almost all the bad news is priced in:

1. no upgrade to 10kbpd
2. possibly reduction in north field
3. no production whatsoever from south field

They're making about $1/m day on current prices- so only option for me right now is to sit tight... Looking for a production upgrade next month or so which should solve alot of problems. Sounds like Puffin SW is at least 9 months away-so not expecting much news there. I only have a small holding- so not overly concerned...


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## VViCKiD (29 November 2007)

thanks ...this is the first time i've ever been on this forum.. 
shame i didn't discover it earlier... it might've did me some good.


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## VViCKiD (29 November 2007)

I orginally bought an amount @ 0.92... Then i sold at 6.70 and just bought back in recently @ 4.80 ... I didn't expect the price to fall that much in 1 day !!


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## laurie (30 November 2007)

What we don't need right now is a cyclone forming up in the area where AED is producing that's the other variable factor that may further impact on the sp so unless they have some form of insurance against production loss due to weather conditions etc at least we know that's going to be a $1m+ a day loss its not so much the actual cyclone but the disconnection,going to port and back and reconnecting that takes time

cheers laurie


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## VViCKiD (30 November 2007)

I am really starting to hate this stock... It plummets everyday !!!!
It looks like it's in free fall !!! Any one with ta knowledge care to give a bit of analysis? Where does it look like support will form?


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## nikkothescorpio (30 November 2007)

Wow - tis surely the classic example of why not to buy against a trend - is clearly why its like trying to catch a falling knife!!!

KNowing this I still couldn't help myself at $4 and watched it blow on by me - currently into low $3.80's.

I'm not a tech guy  - but I cannot see any support for it until it hits its 12mth levels - so $3.30 or so.

Cursing my inability to be patient....though I am sure others are many times more!


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## Fed23 (30 November 2007)

Is it ever going to stop? Its in the red everyday? What the hell is management doing? putting the money in their pockets? I thought of buying more at $3 something but from the looks of things it might even get to high $2


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## VViCKiD (30 November 2007)

damn .... this is a major catastrophe !!!!! arrghhh .. 
I wanna buy a drink but thanks to AED, I can't afford one any more.. LoL



terrible...


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## nikkothescorpio (30 November 2007)

Fed23 said:


> Is it ever going to stop? Its in the red everyday? What the hell is management doing? putting the money in their pockets




Hmmm unfortunately the market is just really hard on stocks that it loses confidence in - and I thin the repeated downgrades and sketchy unclear wording used by AED in its releases has pushed the market too far.

You can either think its really oversold and is just getting pummeled based on the sentiment or that there's a fundamental problem with the stock and its moving to where the price should be.

Prolly a bit of both but you'd have to think its a tough trend to break.


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## grace (30 November 2007)

Yes, from an outsider looking in, I would not touch AED until a major reversal happens as the graph just looks horrific.  I feel sorry for those who bought up at the top (although I've got my fair share of dogs).  I don't own AED, but it's graph kind of looks like PDN a few months ago!  Everyone is deserting the sinking ship...


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## nikkothescorpio (30 November 2007)

Hmmmm well okay thats my 20 mins of AED fun ......after losing $700 or so I'll walk away hopefully having learnt a lesson.

I hate that - do a stupid thing and blow that kinda money and yet be careful with normal things that cost far less.

I still think AED is a good stock thats oversold but the market sentiment is just out of control against it at present - alas when a stock rises as rapidly as it did , it doesn't build up any resistance levels on the way up and so no real supports on the way down.

It could hit $3.30 today - with the usual Friday arvo sell off still to come and maybe then it will stick here for a while or maybe even at $3!

Difficult thing is going to be all the jaded punters who had bought in at much higher levels as it TRIES to get back up.

Alas this seems to have happened to a few stocks lately....AGK, FUN, ALL, CCP


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## VViCKiD (30 November 2007)

Does any one have any broker commentary on this one ? I'd say they have a lot to explain after putting a buy recommendation on this one...


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## GreatPig (30 November 2007)

No broker commentary, but a nice chart 

Next support looks to be around the $3.50 level to me. I dumped mine on 21st after it broke my stop at around $6.80. Normally that would mean it would be back around $10 by now , but in this case it was obviously the right choice.

GP


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## dj_420 (30 November 2007)

> DJ MARKET TALK: UBS Cuts AED Oil Target To A$6.35, Keeps Buy
> 
> 2156 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS cuts AED Oil (AED.AU) target to A$6.35 from
> A$9.82, says Puffin-10 unlikely to be made into a producer, AED now considering a
> ...




Target slashed by UBS, seems to be bouncing now, but everyone is expecting a resource downgrade at the producing area.


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## AED Blunder (30 November 2007)

I bought this stock after watching a television interview between the CEO of this company and Alan Kohler who presents the finance news on the nightly ABC news program. I also conducted some research before placing my order for 45,000 shares at around $11. I am absolutely devastated about the losses that I have suffered in just a few short weeks. AED has no Email contact address published on their website and they are not replying to my hard copy correspondence either. Whenever you call them, there is never anyone available to discuss this spectacular development. When you finally receive a return call, it is via a mobile phone with extremely poor reception and you are repeatedly referred to your financial advisor. Take a look at the credentials of the various management members on their website and then review this with the reality of this financial disaster. From my own experience, I can only compare this to another company that I had invested in some time ago. Clinical Cell Culture (CCE), formed and managed by Australian of the Year, Fiona Woods experienced a similar free fall. What a group of incomptent Managers!!!!!!!!


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## AED Blunder (30 November 2007)

Also take a look at the 'credentials' of the various management team members (e.g. extensive experience in the resources industry, two decades of experience in the oil and gas industry, over 30 years experience in the petroleum industry, having held various technical positions with Shell International Petroleum, and senior management positions with BHP Billiton Limited, including member on the executive committee of BHP Petroleum Limited now the Australian School of Petroleum where he is currently Professor (Santos Chair) - and the bragging goes on). To top things off, the CEO attends the recent AGM in what looked like a golf cap. How much respect do these people have for their shareholders? What a very sad example of an Australian company that could have been shining in the current climate of high oil demand and associated prices.


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## ithatheekret (30 November 2007)

Even with the falls , I thought it was expensive , I don't know how it got so high , even if it was a technically pushed ........

It reminds me of VCR in some ways , big pushes with bigger falls .


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## nikkothescorpio (30 November 2007)

Well this one is very volatile at present - clearly trading on fear and also perhaps has become a day trader target??? 

Left egg on my face - I bought in at $4.01 - got out at $3.73 and felt good when it hit $3.50 - however since then its rocketed back to $4.25!

Why, I have no idea at all as no announcements nor support levels to be seen to my clumsy eyes.

Me thinks best to give it a while unless you're long term, brave or day trading.


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## GreatPig (30 November 2007)

AED Blunder said:


> 45,000 shares at around $11



You put nearly half a mil into this one stock??? 

I would hope you therefore have a multi-million dollar portfolio, and didn't just dump all your capital into one share. Even so, it's a good reason why you need to monitor these volatile stocks fairly closely and have a loss exit point determined in advance.

I entered at $7.17 with specific reasons why I thought this might head back up again (given in an earlier message in this thread). As soon as those reasons were invalidated, by the price dropping below the lowest level that I would expect if those reasons were right, I sold them. My exit price was $6.25 for a 12.8% loss - or 1.26% of my trading capital at the time. If I could have got out at my intended exit price, it would have only been 0.5% of my trading capital.

Cheers,
GP


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## laurie (30 November 2007)

I'm surprised why the stock cops did not ask a please explain from AED why the drop in share price ......would have made interesting reading 

cheers laurie


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## VViCKiD (30 November 2007)

I agree... AED has fallen ~50% in a matter of 1 month !!!
That is ridiculous !!!! It was almost as bad as Rams home loans ... 
Looks like i will have to ride this one out...


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## laurie (30 November 2007)

If this was orchestrated by someone to accumulate at the lowest possible price  and if next week we see it going north then I'm ringing ASIC there is more to this and my suspicion is someone in the know,all of my comments are JMHO 

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (30 November 2007)

I have quite a different perspective. In the short term, I am looking to buy this.

I have a large amount of these free carried, and they used to be quite a substantial holding.  I'm sorry, but I don't feel sorry for anyone losing on this. Management were known to be lying out their a*ses well before any of this blew up. I posted about it 2 or 3 times in here, but I don't think anyone took any notice. There was also a big length of time in which to take profits.

My reasons for this being a very short term buy are this: a big hammer off a downside price target with stopping volume. If the position of this stock wasn't so precarious, I would have bought today. But I would like to see what happens Monday. I suspect a suckers rally. I really don't like this strategy, but there is no better place to learn it than here, where I'm not going to lose much because of the free carried shares. But I will be out of the lot on this trade, because I don't think AED can be in production for more than a year to be honest. If you aren't selling the next rally, I think you are kidding yourselves. 

I don't think it is worth doing any sort of F/A because management once again aren't revealing anything that can be analysed. Quite criminal really.


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## jackson8 (30 November 2007)

having re read their latest announcement realised this at end of ann.


Further, it is noted that the next offtake from the North East production facility will
be undertaken by the 30th November 2008. 

i was hoping this a mistake as they had previously ann.

The next offtake of approximately 315,000 barrels is scheduled for 29
November 2007. All systems should be fully commissioned and equipment matters
resolved in the short term. A review of production levels will take place following
this.
Trevor


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## nomore4s (30 November 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I have quite a different perspective. In the short term, I am looking to buy this.
> 
> My reasons for this being a very short term buy are this: a big hammer off a downside price target with stopping volume. If the position of this stock wasn't so precarious, I would have bought today. But I would like to see what happens Monday. I suspect a suckers rally. I really don't like this strategy, but there is no better place to learn it than here, where I'm not going to lose much because of the free carried shares. But I will be out of the lot on this trade, because I don't think AED can be in production for more than a year to be honest. If you aren't selling the next rally, I think you are kidding yourselves.




I agree with this Chops, I think we will some sort of short lived rally now, with todays action showing some signs of support coming in. Will post a chart and more info on my best guess on how things might unfold from here when I get home tonight.


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## yawomanjas (30 November 2007)

Hi guys..

I am also a battered share holder of the company...but I can't honestly say I blame them for some of the delay in production rate and difficulty with Puffin 10 and SW. These things happen and unfortunately, investing in shares u take the risk...but LONG TERM this one is a compelling bargain at these prices...their PE 2009 is 2 at present..I will be very surprised if they can't make something out of SW...I expect production to be increased on NE next year....if u have bad news...in this envrionment, u should be battered...and no doubt it has....no-one in this environment is going to take on risky stocks such as AED but given time..it'll prove us right...


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## prawn_86 (30 November 2007)

yawomanjas said:


> Hi guys..
> 
> I am also a battered share holder of the company...but I can't honestly say I blame them for some of the delay in production rate and difficulty with Puffin 10 and SW. These things happen and unfortunately, investing in shares u take the risk...but LONG TERM this one is a compelling bargain at these prices...their PE 2009 is 2 at present..I will be very surprised if they can't make something out of SW...I expect production to be increased on NE next year....if u have bad news...in this envrionment, u should be battered...and no doubt it has....no-one in this environment is going to take on risky stocks such as AED but given time..it'll prove us right...




Y

Can you please provide evidence as to why you expect production to be increased, and why it represents good value, aside from the PE ratio (which does seem quite low, although i havnt done any research).

Also it would be easier to read if you seperated your paragraphs with spaces rather than ...

thanks

Prawn.

Welcome to ASF btw


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## yawomanjas (30 November 2007)

Guys 4 broker recommedation so far
1. UBS Buy Target 6.35 29/11
2. Credit Suisse Buy Target 11.00 26/11
3. Macquarie Hold 5.35 26/11
4. Deutsche Buy 12.15 22/11

I don't rely on broker recommedation much but in the short term, expect some volatility and even some lower prices..but good chance to top up..plus u guys all know the instos will get in...from todays low of 3.50 it jumped 20% to 4.30...volatile but long term..shall be good...FYI 08 PE 5.5odd...09 PE 2
EPS 78 cents 08


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## chops_a_must (30 November 2007)

yawomanjas said:


> I don't rely on broker recommedation much but in the short term, expect some volatility and even some lower prices..but good chance to top up..plus u guys all know the instos will get in...from todays low of 3.50 it jumped 20% to 4.30...volatile but long term..shall be good...FYI 08 PE 5.5odd...09 PE 2
> EPS 78 cents 08




Until they come clean about reserves/ resource estimates, PE ratios are absolutely useless. Extending PE's into 09 is pointless because they may be winding things up by then.


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## yawomanjas (30 November 2007)

Prawn....

in the short term production will be reduced, but as they stipulate in their ann they will placing additional wells to maximise production in first half 08...

they have the reserves..I'm confident of that...

the SW, puffin 10 was a kick to the guts while we were down...but its seems to me like a temporary suspension, they just need to do more studies...

all in all, their profit wasmeant to be 210 million..but looks like it will be off for 08...but 09..if production is normalised...I'm very bullish


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## yawomanjas (30 November 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Until they come clean about reserves/ resource estimates, PE ratios are absolutely useless. Extending PE's into 09 is pointless because they may be winding things up by then.




Yeah well the company did reiterate the reserves in their ann...its an "equipment related issue". I do honestly believe them. Again these things happen...DYOR


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## chops_a_must (30 November 2007)

yawomanjas said:


> Yeah well the company did reiterate the reserves in their ann...its an "equipment related issue". I do honestly believe them. Again these things happen...DYOR




I think I've done enough research to conclude what management do, say, and are about...

A simple phone call is all it takes to see what a mob of donkeys these guys are.


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## doctorj (30 November 2007)

PE ratios for oil e&p coys, especially one with a single field with a short life, are of very limited relevance.  From memory it has been discussed quite a bit on AED before.  Look to 2P reserves or DCF to value it.  The unfortunate thing is that both reserves and cash flow are in doubt given the problems they are having with Puffin.  The sooner AED release detail about what’s happening, the better.


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## nomore4s (30 November 2007)

nomore4s said:


> I agree with this Chops, I think we will some sort of short lived rally now, with todays action showing some signs of support coming in. Will post a chart and more info on my best guess on how things might unfold from here when I get home tonight.




Okay, here is my take on AED after the all panic selling of the last few weeks.

Today looks like we might have seen a selling climax with a strong reversal from todays low to finish at todays high on massive volume(stopping vol).
I would now be expecting some sort of rally, to somewhere between $5 & $6 maybe as high as $6.50 but this is purely a guess and it may not even reach $5.00 would depend on how much supply is still around at these higher levels. From there it may retest the $4.30-$4.50 level and then at some stage I would also expect it to retest the $3.50-$4.00 level but I would want to see that retest on alot less volume then we have seen today.
It could be worth a short term trade but will be quite risky imo, as it will most probably turn down quite quickly after the next rally so you would want a tight trailing stop, also there is no real idea on how far the rally will extend if it does rally so it is quite hard to work out the risk to reward ratio.

Today looks to me like some bigger players have come in at around the $4.00 area but this is purely my opinion.
I will now be looking for signs of accumulation before taking a position.

IMO this stock is a perfect example of why you should have some sort of stop or max loss area where you cut losses or get out with some sort of profit while you can as when panic takes control you can end up with massive losses. You can always buy back into the stock later when it all settles down again.

My opinion & discussion only, to be taken with a grain of salt as I'm often wrong.


----------



## jackson8 (30 November 2007)

Are there any comments concerning my earlier post on next offtake dates?

Having re read their latest announcement realised this at end of ann.


Further, it is noted that the next offtake from the North East production facility will
be undertaken by the 30th November 2008. 

I was hoping this a mistake as they had previously ann.

The next offtake of approximately 315,000 barrels is scheduled for 29
November 2007. All systems should be fully commissioned and equipment matters
resolved in the short term. A review of production levels will take place following
this.
Trevor


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## resourceboom (30 November 2007)

Chops, I for one very much appreciate your comment after speaking to the directors and the "wind" debacle.  It helped me with the issue of management credibility, and so I was happy to make a nice profit, after selling when the first news of SW issues came up.



chops_a_must said:


> Management were known to be lying out their a*ses well before any of this blew up. I posted about it 2 or 3 times in here, but I don't think anyone took any notice. There was also a big length of time in which to take profits.


----------



## michael_selway (30 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi short mine life is still an issue u think?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Hm i quite bearish on this stock before it even happenned!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 107.0 220.9 247.5 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## heredownunder (30 November 2007)

Isn't it all about "buy on rumour, sell on news"?

Everyone thought this was going to go great guns because they are sitting on so much oil, the price of oil is going crazy, now when they come to actually try pulling it out of the ground for the first time, they have a few technical problems.

What it now comes down to is how well they can overcome this and start pulling it out of the ground fast enough. No one knows, so the stock is sold, breaking all the stop losses on the way down – ready for the next bit of news.

Unless more positive news comes, this will probably bounce up and down for a while.

Cheers.


----------



## Go Nuke (30 November 2007)

Can someone please explain what is the go with these "pre open" trades?

I honestly dont know enough about stocks to know.


----------



## Pat (30 November 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> Can someone please explain what is the go with these "pre open" trades?
> 
> I honestly dont know enough about stocks to know.




They are crossed trades off market, typically between brokers or larger accounts.

Occur outside of trading hours but are still reported back to ASX where CHESS accounts for them. 

Correct me if wrong.


----------



## AED Blunder (2 December 2007)

Some good news at last..... AED was crowned 'Loser of the week' in todays 'Inside Business' Program on ABC television. Only a few months earlier the CEO bragged about his company on the same program during an interview with Alan Kohler, who looked really impressed. Now, there is something else that these gentleman can add to their individuel portfolios, published on AED's website. If you like these kind of success stories, also take a look at Lakes Oil (LKO), with their shares having dropped from 0.08 to currently 0.009. You have to buy a scientific calculator that displays several zeros after the comma to work with this 'beauty'. And get ready here as well, as there will be an opportunity soon to buy in at a really good price. The next capital raining should just be around the corner.


----------



## BBand (2 December 2007)

Hi AED, 
YOUR COMMENT "AND GET READY HERE AS WELL, AS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY SOON TO BUY IN AT A REALLY GOOD PRICE"
Maybe the time is now - on Friday AED had a good close, long bar range with open close near /at top with long tail and good volume. Looks like there was quite a bit of buying going on?
This type bar has a good probability of being the precurser to a change in trend - usually within five days
However  - who knows for sure - if it opens on Monday above the high of Fridays bar, it could be worth a punt
Peter


----------



## AED Blunder (2 December 2007)

Hi Peter, Still holding 45,000 AED shares (bought @ $11), I would be more than relieved if this free fall would finally come to a sudden stop. My comments regarding a buying opportunity related more to LKO. Perhaps a bit confusing, as this should have been a brand new thread. Anyway, lets hope that the oil uptake over the weekend was successful and that a few other issues are being resolved as well. There is a lot at stake here for me here.


----------



## bigdog (3 December 2007)

Today's Australian

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22858027-643,00.html


*AED earns reprieve with Puffin order*
Nigel Wilson, Energy writer | December 03, 2007

STRUGGLING oil production minnow AED Oil had some respite on Friday when its share price held up for the day.

And the imminent announcement of a second oil shipment from its Puffin project in the Timor Sea may keep the sharks at bay.

After hitting an intra-day low of $3.50, AED Oil shares bounded back on Friday to close at $4.30 on a volume of more than 4.1 million.

AED Oil has been hit relentlessly in the past month by poor reports from Puffin.

It has also been hampered by the absence of chairman and motivating force David Dix, who has been in hospital undergoing surgery.

Mr Dix is expected to be back in the chair this week and will attempt to correct the impression that the Puffin project, the company's main asset, is a failure.

AED's strategy was the rapid development of all Puffin reservoirs for oil development, with early exploration of significant nearby areas.

The aim is to fully develop the Puffin (including additional wells) and nearby Talbot resources between 2008 and 2010.

This year, AED raised $US85 million in a convertible bond issue and completed the conversion of the Front Puffin floating storage and offtake vessel alongside signing a marketing agreement with French giant Total.

Production began on October 6 and the first tanker load was lifted on October 29.

But the company has stated that while commissioning of the sub-sea plant and the FPSO is continuing, "oil production will be below original expectations".

AED maintains that when commissioning is completed, 20,000 barrels a day output is considered achievable.

While the market was absorbing the news that oil production was not as high as forecast and the oil/water contact in the field had been achieved somewhat earlier than expected - not an unusual event on Australia's northern coast - an exploration/appraisal well, Puffin 10, was being drilled in the southwest portion of the permit near Ashmore Reef.

"The well encountered more complex geology than expected," AED told the stock exchange last week while announcing that two sidetracks had been drilled.

The sands encountered by Puffin 10, while oil bearing were thin, which led analysts to suggest its failure raised a question on the existence of an estimated 40 million barrels in the Puffin southwest region, which still remains AED's objective.

Meantime, shareholders at AED's annual general meeting on November 21 were less than happy at the directors' remuneration report, voting it down by a substantial margin.


----------



## yawomanjas (3 December 2007)

Today's Ann

Crude Offtake
The Company is pleased to announce that the crude oil offtake (approximately
315,000 barrels, the upper amount possible under the contract sale) scheduled for completion last weekend has been successfully carried out. Tests performed by an independent party indicate that crude oil quality continues to meet specifications.


----------



## chops_a_must (3 December 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Okay, here is my take on AED after the all panic selling of the last few weeks.
> 
> Today looks like we might have seen a selling climax with a strong reversal from todays low to finish at todays high on massive volume(stopping vol).
> I would now be expecting some sort of rally, to somewhere between $5 & $6 maybe as high as $6.50 but this is purely a guess and it may not even reach $5.00 would depend on how much supply is still around at these higher levels.




Got quite a good fill on this one first up. It appears to be respecting the pivots at this stage, but I am watching this like a very naughty child, tight stops etc. I certainly wont be wanting to hold this into next week.


----------



## nomore4s (3 December 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Got quite a good fill on this one first up. It appears to be respecting the pivots at this stage, but I am watching this like a very naughty child, tight stops etc. I certainly wont be wanting to hold this into next week.




Good reversal off $4.00 today. Looks like a few buyers are coming in now too. Keep those stops tight Chops, imo it will be a short sharp rally, could be profitable still though. Good luck.


----------



## acouch (3 December 2007)

a nice reversal candle came up on friday
chart for those interested.
goodness i have to keep rabbiting on here till i have 100 characters..
before i can post message, day will nearly be over hahah
ac


----------



## sfx (3 December 2007)

I can't believe how many are complaining here.... I think there are a lot of people here who should control their emotions. 

Just remember folks - you can't make a loss if you don't sell. 

Yes the SP has dropped, and yes a lot of people are hurting. But do remember that this is how the market sentiment is at the moment.

As someone has stated, the market is jittery, and in my opinion, if you can't handle it, then get out. 

Remember the fundamentals of the company, and with the recent offtake of circa 315k barrels over the weekend, then this shows that the company is still producing.

Of course don't take my word for it, ride your own wave....

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must (3 December 2007)

sfx said:


> I can't believe how many are complaining here.... I think there are a lot of people here who should control their emotions.
> *
> Just remember folks - you can't make a loss if you don't sell.*
> 
> ...




That's just silly.

Management have proved to be a bunch of cretins with absolutely no qualms for making money for themselves at the expense of ordinary shareholders. The nerve of these people is simply unbelieveable.

And suggesting people shouldn't sell, to help prop up your own investment, is just as bad.

P.S. - Because of lies from the company, no-one knows what the fundamentals are, nor do they believe any of the "fundamentals" espoused by the company. And rightly so.


----------



## sfx (3 December 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> That's just silly.
> 
> Management have proved to be a bunch of cretins with absolutely no qualms for making money for themselves at the expense of ordinary shareholders. The nerve of these people is simply unbelieveable.
> 
> ...




Without sounding this like to be a slinging match - lets get something straight - those are my comments / opinions only and I'm only stating the obvious, rather than propping up the stock. You on the other hand are doing the complete opposite and slandering the stock with little justification.

Your comments are border line libel, and I am surprised that the Administrators of this forum are letting you get away with this. 

Of course maybe you have a case, and if so then present this point-by-point with evidence. 

I agree that management of AED have a case to answer for, but I feel their only issue is being too bullish on their statements. They should have been more careful, and the market has punished the stock accordingly based on the new announcements which have 'attempted' to clarify the situation. Its unfortunate that most of us are caught up with this.

Make it as you will...


----------



## chops_a_must (3 December 2007)

sfx said:


> Your comments are border line libel, and I am surprised that the Administrators of this forum are letting you get away with this.
> 
> Of course maybe you have a case, and if so then present this point-by-point with evidence.
> 
> ...



Uh uh.

If you look back through this thread you will see a post after my conversation with one of the directors. They have more to answer for than just being too bullish in their statements.

There are issues surrounding regulations on continuous disclosure here, which they are undoubtedly in breech of. And if ASIC actually did its job, I'm sure they would be in trouble.


----------



## sfx (3 December 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Uh uh.
> 
> If you look back through this thread you will see a post after my conversation with one of the directors. They have more to answer for than just being too bullish in their statements.
> 
> There are issues surrounding regulations on continuous disclosure here, which they are undoubtedly in breech of. And if ASIC actually did its job, I'm sure they would be in trouble.




I agree with your comments here. Someone else stated of why the ASIC police didn't jump in earlier. There's way too much volatility and AED have been lacking in disclosure.

However, I still think the fundamentals are there. But you do have to go by what info is available, and that has to improve. 

You'll also see a previous post I put up earlier, attempting to survey peeps here over AED's marketing/announcements.....


----------



## doctorj (3 December 2007)

sfx said:


> Your comments are border line libel, and I am surprised that the Administrators of this forum are letting you get away with this.



FYI, whilst chops is getting a little emotive, he's given plenty of justification for his opinion.  My personal belief is the big problem with AED is the market are largely uninformed of the nature of the situation and thus have difficulty in determining fair value.

Also, my understanding of the term 'libel' is that it is defamation of a person.  I don't think it's possible to defame a company...


----------



## sfx (3 December 2007)

doctorj said:


> FYI, whilst chops is getting a little emotive, he's given plenty of justification for his opinion.  My personal belief is the big problem with AED is the market are largely uninformed of the nature of the situation and thus have difficulty in determining fair value.
> 
> Also, my understanding of the term 'libel' is that it is defamation of a person.  I don't think it's possible to defame a company...




I'm not disagreeing with anything about the nature of their comms - see my earlier post. 

As for the term libel - you are correct, and I was referring to his comments about the directors etc. 

Everyone has a right to air their thoughts, but I think its going a bit far in calling the AED directors liars. The forums shouldn't be used to ramp up or down any stock. I think my comments have been balanced, and at no time I have I said or even meant to imply that people shouldn't sell... 

Peace out and in the end time will tell !


----------



## AED Blunder (4 December 2007)

This is by far the worst investment decision that I have ever made. Of course, anyone here is entitled to articulate any negative and disappointing thoughts and we should not be lectured in that regard. It is not just that the company 'underestimated' the various challenges in bringing the oil to the surface, there are many other managerial issues that are substandard for a listed entity. As I have previously pointed out, communications are one sided, with the only option being writing to them via ordinary mail (and not receiving replies) or calling by phone (and being told that no one is available right now). Another 10% down 'as I speak'.


----------



## VViCKiD (4 December 2007)

Another punishing day for AED... This is really getting nasty !!!
The volatility on this one is off the scale !!

I am starting to really hate this stock !


----------



## yawomanjas (4 December 2007)

If we see low prices...could see a potential takeover....better management could be what this company needs...but I'm holding firm...still think the fundamentals are sound...

But fair go on the chairman..he did have surgery the other week...he's due back this week...hopefully fix up the mess.


----------



## VViCKiD (5 December 2007)

Another day another beating........


This is getting ugly!!! U can't believe it...it's in free faLL!!


----------



## Fed23 (5 December 2007)

I'm thinking since I've lost so much, when it gets lower to top up to make my average share price lower. 

But then again, it might continue to drop more after I do a top up, but it doesn't look good so far. 

If it keeps this trend up, it looks like the company would be worth less.


----------



## VViCKiD (5 December 2007)

I am thinking the same. I got in at 4.80 for 5000 units. Currently looks like there's some support at 3.50... but who knows ??


----------



## tronic72 (5 December 2007)

Hmmm,

You guys will hate me. I search for posts like this. I've been thinking of getting in on this stock for a while and now seems like a good time. 

I'm no economist but I can't see anything wrong with this company. Can ANYONE explain WHY it has dropped so far is it being over sold?? Or was it simply overvalued only 2 months ago 11.4 - 3.88 is a masssssssivvvveee drop over such a short period.


----------



## dj_420 (5 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> Hmmm,
> 
> You guys will hate me. I search for posts like this. I've been thinking of getting in on this stock for a while and now seems like a good time.
> 
> I'm no economist but I can't see anything wrong with this company. Can ANYONE explain WHY it has dropped so far is it being over sold?? Or was it simply overvalued only 2 months ago 11.4 - 3.88 is a masssssssivvvveee drop over such a short period.




There is actually a reason behind the slide in sp (as there usually is). They have downgraded the production from 30 000 barrels to an optomistic 20 000, currently at 10 000 (or so they say).

The water cut has also increased in the field, increasing complexity of the field.

They have walked away from SW sector which was said to have held a 40 million barrels resource. 

They may be oversold but they may also be fairly priced given current situation, has gone from market darling to market dud.


----------



## sfx (5 December 2007)

dj_420 said:


> They have walked away from SW sector which was said to have held a 40 million barrels resource.




Correction for your comment above - they have NOT walked away, but merely put a hold on the further development of the SW till they complete more analysis work. 

This was stated in earlier announcements (28th Nov) and everyone here knows about their comments over the area being "geologically more complex than originally thought" and further to that "The well encountered more complex geology than expected, two, additional sidetracks were drilled, with the aim of better understanding the geology."

The LOI arrangements for the Modec Venture FPSO are still in place, the reserve estimations are still current. Its just going to take longer to appraise the development, and get to production. 

Well thats what is hoped. Only time will tell. 

Thoughts and opinions are most welcome, and lecturing is not what I am on about, but moreso keeping to the facts, rather than distorting them.

Cheers all.


----------



## ithatheekret (5 December 2007)

The figures alone show that the a SW area is still part of the math in the NPV , product when filtered will still be good for heating oils and kero at worst . I just disagree with the values projected and the abandonment calculations .


----------



## rederob (5 December 2007)

AED is in freefall.
It's still going down.
I hold a very small parcel, and might buy more if it dips under $2.95 where it should get strong technical support.
Fundamentally the situation of the stock and its true reserves and resources must be seen as cloudy, at best.
If the producing well starts to crank significantly upwards of 10k/day on a rising trend, then I would buy more in a flash at present prices.
Otherwise the stock is showing a close resemblance to Paladin, albeit without a base having formed from its present carnage.


----------



## dj_420 (5 December 2007)

sfx said:


> Correction for your comment above - they have NOT walked away, but merely put a hold on the further development of the SW till they complete more analysis work.
> 
> This was stated in earlier announcements (28th Nov) and everyone here knows about their comments over the area being "geologically more complex than originally thought" and further to that "The well encountered more complex geology than expected, two, additional sidetracks were drilled, with the aim of better understanding the geology."
> 
> ...




Ok, so I may have over emphasised the point BUT that statement to me seems like it is a great lead up to stating that the geology of the sand formations is far too complex to warrant production.

From the disclosure issues this company has been facing I think it is fairly disgusting how they keep the market updates.

They often seem to elude to the point and then accept it in an ann further down the track.

For instance before production started they were stating it would be in June, then they said there may be some delays before finally coming clean and deciding Oct would be when they would start production.

Look at where disclosure has got them so far!


----------



## chops_a_must (6 December 2007)

What a whipsaw.

It came within a whisker of my stop yesterday, which at this stage looks lucky. It now looks as though sellers have slowed up below $4 and buyers are having to chase.

Always been a great trading share this one, due to the volatility. Pity about the company itself though.


----------



## michael_selway (6 December 2007)

rederob said:


> AED is in freefall.
> It's still going down.
> I hold a very small parcel, and might buy more if it dips under $2.95 where it should get strong technical support.
> Fundamentally the situation of the stock and its true reserves and resources must be seen as cloudy, at best.
> ...




Hi Red, how low did this one go recently?

Might be a good buy

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 97.4 167.3 170.1 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *



> Date: 4/12/2007
> Author: Stephen Wisenthal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 23
> Australian investors are becoming nervous about the future prospects of AED Oil.The company's early performances were welcomed by investors, who pushed thestock up to $A11.40 in October 2007. However, news that oil production at thePuffin project may be delayed has pushed the share price down considerably.Earlier delays were accepted by investors with little fuss, however the latestannouncement has caused the shares to drop to $A4.21 as of 3 December 2007.Despite the fall, some analysts still believe the stock has value






> Date: 3/12/2007
> Author: Nigel Wilson
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 33
> Australian-listed oil group AED Oil has managed to retain a stable share price.The company is under pressure to produce strong results after rumours that itsPuffin project is failing. AED is expected to announce that a second shipment ofoil will be transported from the Puffin project shortly. Chairman David Dix hasbeen absent from the role for some time due to an operation, however he is dueback shortly. His return is expected to buoy the group's morale. AED sharesclosed at $A4.30 on 30 November 2007






> Date: 22/11/2007
> Author: Jamie Freed
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 31
> AED Oil lost the confidence of the market after it revealed problems with itsmain projects. The start of production at the Australian oil company'sPuffin field off the Northern Territory lifted its share price to a record$A11.40 on 17 October 2007. However, it has announced that its Puffin North-Eastfield will not reach its forecast peak production. It has also suspendeddevelopment of its Puffin South-West field, as it is more geologically complexthan thought. On 21 November, AED's share price closed down by $A1.30 at$A5.80
> ...


----------



## prawn_86 (6 December 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Might be a good buy




Personally i would never buy a stock that has so much negative sentiment surrounding the management or disclosure.

Thats just me, but reliable and trustworthy management is one of the most important factors in my (long term) stock choices


----------



## laurie (6 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> michael_selway said:
> 
> 
> > Might be a good buy
> ...




True for example look at COE and see how management have kept shareholders informed especially it's MD Mike Scott

cheers laurie


----------



## sfx (7 December 2007)

laurie said:


> True for example look at COE and see how management have kept shareholders informed especially it's MD Mike Scott
> 
> cheers laurie




At least Mike doesn't wear golf hats to AGMs.... 

I made several comments earlier about AED announcements. I do like COE and their announcements. They're professional rather than speculative in their nature. Very few words are used, and they are clear cut. Take a look at their recent announcement - very objective and gets the message across, but not playing on words, prudent given their initial findings with Kurnia. 

If AED didn't play with words and use marketing type language, then this SP wouldn't have taken such a hit. Of course these are my opinions only....


----------



## chops_a_must (10 December 2007)

Well, I'm completely out of this now.

Taken out just above the potential resistance zone around 5.20. I'm 90% sure this will go a bit higher, but I'm not game to take it on. About 6.50 is the next target, but that's fairly brave.

But for a trade of about 3R, and 25% in a week, I'm as happy as a pig in ****.


----------



## michael_selway (10 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> michael_selway said:
> 
> 
> > Might be a good buy
> ...




Hm true but look at the rebound today!

Sometimes it depends on how low it goes i.e. value etc

thx

MS


----------



## prawn_86 (10 December 2007)

True, hence why i stated long term.

If its a short term trade (which i suck at anyway) its only really price action in the short term rather than long term fundamentals


----------



## Bush Trader (11 December 2007)

What no comments on today’s action?  The stock with no friends has just found some!  Technically do we call this a trend reversal now that the stock has broken through the moving average?

Cheers


BT


----------



## Fed23 (11 December 2007)

Did anyone buy back in when it was in the mid $3?

I was waiting for it to hit 3.50 for a second time but it never did. So I lucked out


----------



## nomore4s (11 December 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Okay, here is my take on AED after the all panic selling of the last few weeks.
> 
> Today looks like we might have seen a selling climax with a strong reversal from todays low to finish at todays high on massive volume(stopping vol).
> I would now be expecting some sort of rally, to somewhere between $5 & $6 maybe as high as $6.50 but this is purely a guess and it may not even reach $5.00 would depend on how much supply is still around at these higher levels. From there it may retest the $4.30-$4.50 level and then at some stage I would also expect it to retest the $3.50-$4.00 level but I would want to see that retest on alot less volume then we have seen today.
> ...




Ok, the Automatic rally is underway but looks to be running out of legs with todays ultra high volume and the close well off the highs a sure sign that the sellers have come back into the market. Prices could probe a bit higher still but if we see a close a fair way off the high tomorrow I will be looking to go short, with an initial target of between $4.30-$4.50. I will also look to go short if prices probe under todays low of $5.65.


----------



## VViCKiD (13 December 2007)

Any one get out of this one recently ?? 
I am thinking about it... Wat does everyone think ? 
Looks like its run is coming to an end...


----------



## chops_a_must (13 December 2007)

VViCKiD said:


> Any one get out of this one recently ??
> I am thinking about it... Wat does everyone think ?
> Looks like its run is coming to an end...




Yeah, I said the upper target might be about 6.50, but I wasn't prepared to take it that high. In any case, it failed just in front of it and looks to be collapsing once again.

I really hope no-one bought into this one on this suckers rally.


----------



## VViCKiD (13 December 2007)

Holy crap !!! look at the sell off !!!
that's vicious !!!
one of the worst sell-offs i've ever seen in a stock that i own..


----------



## jonojpsg (14 December 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Ok, the Automatic rally is underway but looks to be running out of legs with todays ultra high volume and the close well off the highs a sure sign that the sellers have come back into the market. Prices could probe a bit higher still but if we see a close a fair way off the high tomorrow I will be looking to go short, with an initial target of between $4.30-$4.50. I will also look to go short if prices probe under todays low of $5.65.




Thanks for that pointer nomore4s - I actually took you up on that tip and shorted at 5.62, which is proving to be a good call at this stage   At what point would you suggest buying out, mid $4 range?  or just keep an eye on it?

Surely this can't go much below $4 though - if they can ramp up production to even 15000 bpd this makes them well worth buying at these prices.  They will make enough profit in the next three years to buy into some other prospects if SW doesn't prove up.  Or give us the profits


----------



## VViCKiD (14 December 2007)

What does everyone think about this stock right now ? Do you guys reckon the support line is around the $4.80 mark ? Has anyone got anjy analyst reports one this one ??
Thanks in advance.


----------



## rub92me (14 December 2007)

Most recent support is around 3.50, but I question how useful TA is in this case. A bit of good news and it may shoot up, further bad news and it could go in freefall again.


----------



## chops_a_must (15 December 2007)

rub92me said:


> Most recent support is around 3.50, but I question how useful TA is in this case. A bit of good news and it may shoot up, further bad news and it could go in freefall again.



I don't think good news is going to help this. It is quite clear from the brokerage reports that they think the management have absolutely zero credibility. Any more negative news is going to smash this stock. And TA has been very good for a few of us lately on this one. 


VViCKiD said:


> What does everyone think about this stock right now ? Do you guys reckon the support line is around the $4.80 mark ? Has anyone got anjy analyst reports one this one ??
> Thanks in advance.



I have the level around 4.80 as a fib level, and it is a bit of support over the long term. I'm not sure if that really counts now though.


jonojpsg said:


> Thanks for that pointer nomore4s - I actually took you up on that tip and shorted at 5.62, which is proving to be a good call at this stage   At what point would you suggest buying out, mid $4 range?  or just keep an eye on it?
> 
> Surely this can't go much below $4 though - if they can ramp up production to even 15000 bpd this makes them well worth buying at these prices.  They will make enough profit in the next three years to buy into some other prospects if SW doesn't prove up.  Or give us the profits



If this sucks up into the weekly pivot on Monday, I'll be looking to short, with the aim of scaling out at 4.80 and perhaps below $4. It appears that many brokers question the viability of the well, and even if it will remain functional for even a modest amount of time. They also seem to think that there will need to be more capital raising, which if true, could see the SP a lot lower than I could imagine.


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## nomore4s (15 December 2007)

jonojpsg said:


> Thanks for that pointer nomore4s - I actually took you up on that tip and shorted at 5.62, which is proving to be a good call at this stage   At what point would you suggest buying out, mid $4 range?  or just keep an eye on it?
> 
> Surely this can't go much below $4 though - if they can ramp up production to even 15000 bpd this makes them well worth buying at these prices.  They will make enough profit in the next three years to buy into some other prospects if SW doesn't prove up.  Or give us the profits




Firstly, I'm very much a novice and this is for discussion & educational purposes only (mine mainly) and is my personal opinion - I'm not qualified to give financial advice. 

Imo I would keep an eye on anything you have a short on, as things can turn very quickly, I generally run some sort of trailing stop when short.

My current view on AED is there will probably be some sort of short term support at $4.50ish, prices might drift around this area for a while before eventually drifting back down to test the $3.50 - $4.00 area. I will be looking for any signs of accumulation before deciding what to do from there.

My best guess is it will end up in a trading range for awhile now. 

Not sure what good news would do, probably only give some of the traders trapped in at higher prices a chance to get out, can't really see prices above $6.50 any time soon but you never know - that's what makes the markets interesting.

Might post a chart later when I get home, if I get a chance.


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## Fed23 (18 December 2007)

Currently up to $4.50 with the market going down.

Mine you at the start of the day it was in read


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## sfx (18 December 2007)

Fed23 said:


> Currently up to $4.50 with the market going down.
> 
> Mine you at the start of the day it was in read




Spoke to soon its back down but up 6 WHOLE cents whilst this is being written :-( 
I think with this market environment/sentiment this share is going nowhere for now... good time to buy in ?!


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## VViCKiD (18 December 2007)

I sold out at $4 ///  
Does anyone know when Bearn Stearns and Morgan Stanley are due to report ? Or have they reported ?
Can anyone explain the rally at the end of the day ?


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## yawomanjas (18 December 2007)

Vvickid...

SFE futures indicated the market would be down 50 odd points...so it finished roughly what the futures market indicated...

I think people realised that stocks had been oversold a bit at 10:15 when the market lost another 150...and went bargain hunting..man wish I had more cash


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## VViCKiD (18 December 2007)

Thanks yawomanjas.. Same ..... I was about to cop a margin call so I dropped a few stocks. 

I wanted to buy CNP @ $0.50 and LGL@ $2.95
I wish I had more money...


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## sfx (20 December 2007)

The one thing I am interested in, is when the next off take is scheduled. No news about this as yet.  

Interesting watching these birds go up and down. I hope the many day traders out there are picking it, as I'm not...


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## Icharus (21 December 2007)

Had a look at the last shipment times 35 days between shipments for 315,000 barrels that actually works out at 9000 bopd. If AED can produce at same rate expect next shipment ready on 4th Jan which would mean an announcement on the Monday 7th Jan.

*HOWEVER*

This is the average rates from their announcements

Dates                              Production   Av bopd
7th - 11th October            110,000        22,000
12th-27th October            228,000       14,250
28th Oct-1st December     315,000         9,000

It is truly scandalous that the management of this company has been way too positive in their forecasts and way to slow to correct them and to top it off sell shares at the top of the market.

Even now they claimed that the field was/is running at 10,000 bopd yet on average on the last shipment 9,000. They were claiming 10,000 bopd on 25 days out of 35 pumping which would have given their claim 250,000 barrels produced which means the final 65,000 was produced over ten days at 6,500 bopd.

My guess is that the field appears to be still declining to a stabilised rate and is probably running sub 9,000 now hence the lack of announcing a offtake date because it would mean admitting that even now they do not know what the field is capable of!

Sorry to have to fill your christmas stocking with tales of sorrow and I would be delighted to be wrong. I still have family holding on to this stock even after pleading with them to sell at $6.50.

Icharus


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## sfx (21 December 2007)

To me it sounds like AED management have gone to sleep for the silly season?! No announcements or comments made on production or offtake...

It would be most interesting to see what the next announcement will hold. 

Icharus your calculations look sound, and yes new year should bring some news. I wouldn't say nay or yah as yet over whether the production rates would be favourable or not, but I do know that AED are wanting to rectify their oil extraction issues, then boost the rates once these issues have been settled.

After all its better to get things right at the early stage, rather than damage the well, or create further issues, and that would not be favourable. Also could cost a lot of $$ to rectify. 

Oil is a very technical business, and I don't think the market appreciates the complexity of extracting the stuff. Just have a look over their AGM presentations and other plethera of oil technical info available on the web.

But to a degree no news is good news?! I'm sitting tight. 

AED is holding its ground for now. Seems to have stabilised from its earlier extreme SP climbs and declines. Probably speaking too far ahead of things, but to date, it seems stable.


----------



## sfx (21 December 2007)

Watched the trading today, and I have to say it seems that AED is being accumulated. Also on the bell there was efforts to drive down the SP. Course of Sales shows a trade at 15:59 at 4.32, then dumpers ran the SP down to 4.15 after adjustment. But I do have to say that there was also the converse side with some traders trying to drive the close price up.

Glad to see it held its ground though....

This practice is the norm for some I know, but its dirty none the less, trying to drive down the SP... I wish I had enough shares to drive down any SP at close !


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## Santoro (31 December 2007)

All quiet on the AED front.....there must be another off load due soon, this will provide an indication as to what kind of flows are actually occurrring. The last offtake was completed on the 3rd of December. 

Previously 29 October, thus next at 10,000 bopd should mean the FPSO is near full......3-5 days away....this will no doubt impact the share price


------------------------------------------------------------------
No longer hold....


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## jackson8 (3 January 2008)

Santoro said:


> All quiet on the AED front.....there must be another off load due soon, this will provide an indication as to what kind of flows are actually occurrring. The last offtake was completed on the 3rd of December.
> 
> Previously 29 October, thus next at 10,000 bopd should mean the FPSO is near full......3-5 days away....this will no doubt impact the share price
> 
> ...




maybe after the rough ride they have had  are holding out to make any announcements until they are sure that there is something postitive to tell the market . with oil price heading north lets hope it is soon and good as have had to hold since purchasing at $7 on way down


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## sfx (3 January 2008)

jackson8 said:


> maybe after the rough ride they have had  are holding out to make any announcements until they are sure that there is something postitive to tell the market . with oil price heading north lets hope it is soon and good as have had to hold since purchasing at $7 on way down




Exactamondo - most definitely agree with your statement. Good gains recently, however, I do expect this to fluctuate until news comes through...

But I do still believe many are accumulating, and news will determine where this goes... fingers crossed for this new year and to start off on a good note.


----------



## jet328 (3 January 2008)

Santoro said:


> All quiet on the AED front.....there must be another off load due soon, this will provide an indication as to what kind of flows are actually occurrring. The last offtake was completed on the 3rd of December.




AED have already off-loaded on Dec 21. It was in Reuters. They did say the works would take some time(3 months from memory), so we won't know for a while yet

Someone likes them the last few days

Cheers


----------



## Aargh! (10 January 2008)

*ASX Announcement
10 January 2008*
_Project Update and Strategic Review
Introduction
AED owns, on a 100% basis, a highly valuable portfolio including production, near
production, development and exploration assets. This announcement includes a
project update and advice on a strategic review.
Puffin NE1 - Update
• The next crude oil offtake from the Front Puffin FPSO is expected to occur
around mid January 2008, notwithstanding minor interruptions to shipping
schedules due to recent regional cyclone activities.
• To date AED has produced over 900,000 barrels of high quality Tapis oil.
• Reservoir simulations calibrated on the recent production data from Puffin-7
and Puffin-8 are consistent with AED’s previously published reserves. This work
indicates that the lower than expected production levels are due to factors
localised to the well bore and not to the reservoir in general.
• During the commissioning phase production levels have fluctuated daily. The
range of daily production rates over the past month has been 6000 to more
than 10,000 bopd (barrels of oil per day) as a consequence of the testing of gas
lift and changes in the control system over this period. Planning for
rectification of commissioning phase production issues is advanced and in line
with earlier announcements, including the engagement of external technical
experts in the field of horizontal well bore drilling and completion
optimisation.
• Independent advice received to date suggests that production being lower than
initially forecast is due to wellbore impairment most likely caused by drilling
and completion related factors. These factors include the prolonged drilling of
the horizontal well sections (and subsequent static pre-production periods)
that may have led to the blocking of a number of sand screens possibly
exacerbated by chemicals associated with the polymer-based drilling mud. In
addition to remedial works to be undertaken, establishment of the source of
these factors should assist in reducing the likelihood of these issues arising in
future well completions.
• Planning continues on the Puffin NE1 six well program (4 additional wells), with
the preparation for the drilling of Puffin-11 production well (bi-lateral) likely
for mid 2008. This is anticipated to increase production by an initial increment
of 20,000 bopd (declining in accordance with a normal depletion profile). AED
has two drilling options available within the next 12 months.
Page 2 of 3
Puffin SW - Update
• Recent analysis of the Puffin-10 well results has provided significant new
geological data in relation to the Puffin South West (SW) region, which
continues to support the planned Puffin SW development and has also provided
new areas of oil in place in the region.
• The Puffin-10 drilling also identified an unexpected untested updip LK (lower)
sandstone reservoir which potentially contains an estimated 30MMbbl OIIP
unrisked which is in addition to the OIIP estimates of 3 to 26 MMbbl in the LK
sandstone previously published from Puffin-9 drilling.
• Also, geological modelling suggests that the UK (upper) sandstone ranges from
6 to 9 metres in thickness and the corresponding Oil Initially In Place (OIIP)
estimates range from 15 to 80 MMbbl.
• Analysis of the recent drilling data indicates that Puffin SW region has the
potential to be a contiguous oil field in the UK sands spanning from Puffin-2 to
Puffin-9 and across to Puffin-10.
• Based on the significant potential confirmed by the Puffin-10 well results and
recent analysis, AED continues to undertake work on the development plan for
the Puffin SW region.
Potential Developments
AED has a significant range of potential projects including:
• Puffin SW development, as mentioned above;
• Puffin NE2 development, with potential upside OIIP of 24 MMbbl as a likely tieback
development to Puffin NE1 producing area;
• Talbot field development, based on the OIIP estimate of 21 MMbbl and a
projected 15,000 bopd (initial) development with a 2-3 year production life;
and
• Additional exploration and appraisal of a range of significant leads and
prospects with total unrisked OIIP of 250 MMbbl.
These provide an extensive suite of development and exploration opportunities for
the company.
As previously announced, AED is negotiating for additional production processing
capacity through the leasing of an additional FPSO, the MV1 FPSO. AED is undertaking
scenario analysis in order to optimise development plans having regard for the
potential capacity increases, the drilling slot options and the availability of funding.
Strategic Review
AED owns, on a 100% basis, a highly valuable portfolio of assets including production,
near production, development and exploration leads and prospects. The company has
been approached by a number of Australian and international parties who have
recognised this and who are interested in participating in AED’s Puffin and Talbot
assets.
AED has sustained positive cashflow, but in order to be able to pursue its significant
opportunities as expeditiously as possible, the company requires additional funding.
Page 3 of 3
AED has appointed Macquarie to undertake a strategic review on behalf of AED.
Macquarie is advising AED on ways in which the company may achieve its strategic
objectives and will hold discussions with parties interested in participating in AED’s
Assets.
It should be noted that details of approaches received to date and of the strategic
review are confidential._


----------



## jimski (10 January 2008)

The announcement seems to be rather more carefully worded than some of the previous ones but I take it to be positve overall.  AED is working through the production problems and thankfully the overall resevoir estimate is not downgraded.

I am interested to know what others make of the last paragraph mentioning outside parties wanting to participate.  Merger? JV? Takeover?  What is written between the lines there?


----------



## chops_a_must (10 January 2008)

Aargh! said:


> Strategic Review
> AED owns, on a 100% basis, a highly valuable portfolio of assets including production,
> near production, development and exploration leads and prospects. The company has
> been approached by a number of Australian and international parties who have
> ...




Nice attempted management ramp. 

I can't remember where I wrote it, but I said that they may be looking at a cap raising.

Spoke to an engineering supervisor working on the project a few weeks back, he wasn't very complimentary. And quit in disgust. From another poster on another site, it appears as if water is leaking out of one of the well holes. Which is consistent with what I heard, and what they are disclosing.

There is still absolutely no reason to hold this IMO.


----------



## Aargh! (10 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Spoke to an engineering supervisor working on the project a few weeks back, he wasn't very complimentary. And quit in disgust. From another poster on another site, it appears as if water is leaking out of one of the well holes. Which is consistent with what I heard, and what they are disclosing.




Hi chops,

Did the engineering supervisor quit due to management issues? Or due to technical disagreements or a fundamental error regarding the viability of the well?

Cheers


----------



## sfx (10 January 2008)

From what I've read my thoughts are: 

* They've completed a lot of analysis, which is prudent considering that they wouldn't want to jeopardise the whole operation;

* Quality is meeting expectations - high grade Tapis;

* More work is required to stabilise and optimise NE1 production - and yes figures are down from their expectations/calculations, but its early days for production - ie, technical issues with the local well bore, not with the reservoir;

* The reserve figures are still current; 

* The SW is still a go, albeit delayed due to the issues encountered with their drilling;

* As many media commentaries speculated before, technical difficulties with the SW will mean further refinancing. But should production continue and be optimised, then this will be 'softened';

All in all this is an intermediate announcement, with nothing really new to add, with perhaps just an attempt to clarify earlier announcements. As they have in the past been scorned for their announcement ambiguity.

I expect the next announcement over the offtake will not provide any ease of mind to shareholders, as the timings can't really be judged by any credible calculations, due to the testing, Xmas & NY period just past.

If I remember correctly from their previous announcements it will take some months for them to stabilise / optimise production. I am sure that we all await the day when they stabilise / optimise production rates, and announce it without any caveats. <remains to be seen>

But do remember Rome was not built in a day, and with AED this is certainly also the case. Love it or hate AED, I think analysts consensus of HOLD is justifiable until they stabilise production. I know some are even going are far as saying this is a good buy. 

Do your own research. Cheers for hearing me out....


----------



## Aargh! (10 January 2008)

sfx said:


> But do remember Rome was not built in a day, and with AED this is certainly also the case. Love it or hate AED, I think analysts consensus of HOLD is justifiable until they stabilise production. I know some are even going are far as saying this is a good buy.




I'd agree with a hold recommendation for AED at the moment however I would be wary of the advice going as far as saying this is a good buy.

While the commissioning/testing/rectifying phase has been producing between 6,000-10,000 bopd further deterioration of the well would be punishing on the SP especially as AED is currently a one well wonder till mid 2008.

AED is still a high risk holding and has some big hurdles to jump. Last but not least the management has been less than impressive... Who wears golf hats to AGM's?


----------



## chops_a_must (10 January 2008)

Aargh! said:


> Hi chops,
> 
> Did the engineering supervisor quit due to management issues? Or due to technical disagreements or a fundamental error regarding the viability of the well?
> 
> Cheers




The former two. Technical disagreements and management issues. Apparently he has been chasing ass, for want of a better word, since the FPSO was in dry dock in Singapore being refitted for correction of problems (Post Feb last year). They apparently refused to spend any money replacing sub standard parts, and have continually gone with the cheapest options on everything. Which has obviously led to some serious failures.

It seemed quite clear to me that he didn't believe their problems could be fixed with the management they had, and the paths they had continued to take. Even after they knew the well was failing. So I guess that gives you an indication of the possibility of problems being rectified. In my mind, not very likely...


----------



## laurie (10 January 2008)

Takeover coming sooner than later maybe according to the new Business Foxtel Channel they seemed to think that's why Mac bank is in there

cheers laurie


----------



## chops_a_must (10 January 2008)

laurie said:


> Takeover coming sooner than later maybe according to the new Business Foxtel Channel they seemed to think that's why Mac bank is in there
> 
> cheers laurie




From memory Mac Bank had a big role to play in the rights issues about 5.20 or so I think. So, they are probably under water and trying to exert some pressure.


----------



## sfx (11 January 2008)

Well to be honest I wouldn't put a BUY recommendation myself - too much volatility and also accompanied with some risk. Could give someone heart problems watching this one !  

As per the previous posts by others, I'd go further to say I see a farm-in with someone who has more experience and backed up by cash. Cash is king, but experience is also required in this game.

Macquarie Equity Capital Markets was indeed involved in the Unsecured Notes Offering, as Lead Manager and they also exercised their right to purchase an additional $10mill of the unsecured notes under the offer. So they have a vested interest, and would get paid never the less. So there's some big boys interested in seeing this through....


----------



## Trader Paul (11 January 2008)

Hi folks,

AED ... will be alert for more positive news, later this month, as 
2 time cycles come out to play:

              25-28012008 ... 2 positive cycles ... financial details of January offtake???

However, February/March will likely bring some negative sentiment for AED:

              21-25022008 ... 2 cycles ... negative spotlight on AED

           2702-10032008 ... underlying negative sentiment = flat trading ???

              17-18032008 ... 2 cycles ... significant and negative news expected

                  19032008 ... minor and positive cycle

                  25032008 ... minor

              04-07042008 ... minor news expected

                  09042008 ... minor                               

             18-21042008 ... significant and positive news

                 24042008 ... positive spotlight on AED ... 

                 02052008 ... positive cycle ... finances???

                 05052008 ... negative news expected here

                 19052008 ... minor cycle

            23-26052008 ... negative spotlight on AED

                29052008 ... negative cycle ... finances???

More later .....

have a great day

 paul

 

=====


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## ithatheekret (17 January 2008)

I don't normally comment on my trades in stocks , I will discuss the stock no problems , but in brief this was a great shorting stock from $6.22 down .

Anyone that caught the $9.00 region is a champion .


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## kevien (19 January 2008)

ithatheekret said:


> I don't normally comment on my trades in stocks , I will discuss the stock no problems , but in brief this was a great shorting stock from $6.22 down .
> 
> Anyone that caught the $9.00 region is a champion .




So you think it will go down further to pennies? But AED does seem in lots of trouble, it hires MACQ to get more fund for its development.


----------



## Go Nuke (21 January 2008)

:bad:Yes clearly I should have been shorting this stock...not buying at $9

Ive never shorted before, but I reckon if I start doing it now....you watch..the market will rebound..lol.

AED absolutley smashed today..yay:bad:


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## VViCKiD (21 January 2008)

LoL !!! take one for the team and short then.... 
It would do us all a favour !!! 

Where is the relief from all this insanity ?!!?!?


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## kahuna (24 January 2008)

Why does the NEXUS news not have more of an impact on the AED share price? We were up 15 percent earlier but now we're in the red again???

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aM4HnEnK49AM&refer=australia


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## jimski (24 January 2008)

I think people have lost sight of the fact that the fundamentals remain solid for AED.  Rollercoaster ride of last 5 months has not helped the reputation of the stock in the market and investors are overly wary. AED looks cheap to me at current prices but even having faith in the company I cannot bring myself to add to my position in the current climate.  I guess I am one of many.


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## jimski (30 January 2008)

What is going on with AED?  Is it simply lack of news that has the stock drifting endlessly downwards?  I can't find any negative news....  Can anyone shed some light on this for me please?


----------



## boff (30 January 2008)

Jimski:
I think you hit the nail on the head there. Right now no news is bad news.
They said back on the 10th Jan to expect the next crude offtake around mid Jan and baring miracles they missed that one.......


----------



## michael_selway (30 January 2008)

boff said:


> Jimski:
> I think you hit the nail on the head there. Right now no news is bad news.
> They said back on the 10th Jan to expect the next crude offtake around mid Jan and baring miracles they missed that one.......




Its not bad, but some risk i think

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 117.6 128.1 198.2 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## jet328 (30 January 2008)

boff said:


> They said back on the 10th Jan to expect the next crude offtake around mid Jan and baring miracles they missed that one.......




They never said they were going to make an announcement for each & every offtake. The previous offtake wasn't announced either. It's quite common for companies to announce the 1st or 2nd but thats generally it.

You'll have to wait until tomorrow when the quarterly is released


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## jet328 (31 January 2008)

Can't understand why AED consistanly leaves its quarterly reports to the last minute (or afterwards).

I think part of the sell down today was due to the lack of the quarterly ie. what are they hiding?

Even if its bad news, surely its better to get it out there than worry the market & have to release it anyway.

Don't hold, so it doesn't bother me, but does seem silly. Get the feeling they see reporting to the market as a pain the butt.


----------



## sfx (31 January 2008)

I share your comments JET328 they really do hold back - but finally the AED announcements for the December ending quarter were released late today after trading was closed.

I thought I'd add my comments/highlights:

Strategic Review
* Confirmation AED are seeking farm-in with an external party - potentially a 'well creditialed' Australian oiler or International player;
* Farm-in expected to be finalised by the end of March;

Production
* Last quarter 839,698 barrels of tapis grade oil;
* Oct 6th Production started - hence from my calculations - 87 days in production cycle for the last quarter div by barrels of oil produced (ie, 839,698 / 87) = Approx production average of 9,650 odd BOPD to date;
* External consultant believes daily production rates can be increased 2-3 times;
So going by this say an increase x2 = 19,300 BOPD or x3 = 28,950. 
* Following rectification of the issues potentially by mid year, the resulting outcome will probably be in between these figures, pretty close to initial projections never the less;
* Over 1million barrels produced to date;
* $33 operating costs for each barrel of oil - still a high net profit for high grade tapis;

Reserves
* Revised estimates for prospects = net result of reserves unchanged - its all still there;

Looking forward
* Commentary leaves the door open / suggests Macquarie to inject more capital into the project. Highly probable given the prospects and their current position with AED already;

* Puffin NE1 could be drilled mid year, with production online as early as the 3rd quarter this year;
* Mistakes with the Puffin SW development drilling / well issues will be 'avoided' and AED are confident that they can sustain 20k BOPD for the new development;

> Net position for me on AED - bullish medium-long term, hesitant short term due to market factors and market players out there;


----------



## Icharus (31 January 2008)

AED report now has to be read like you read a legal document. No admission as to current rate of production. They are hoping that the calculations are done over the long period which includes the high production rates that occurred early. Thats why 9000 bopd average looks like the production has stabilised. In fact current production is now below 6000 bopd! (1,000,000 barrels-840,000/30 days).

Also they have commented on only Puffin 7 having the potential to increase after remedial works of 2 to 3 times. No mention of puffin 8 it may or may not be able to increase. 
The increases will be on current production which given  is below 6000 bopd between Puffin 7 and 8 then it is more likely to give an increase of the order of 3000 to 6000 bopd additional production.

Also what has happened to the gaslift which was to increase production ?

Until production stabilises there will be continued pressure on the share price. Long term it will now depend on how the search for a JV partner goes do not expect miracles here. 

sadly Icharus


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## sfx (31 January 2008)

Icharus> Haha very true about the report looking like a legal document. But when you've been punished for publicising marketing hype, then you would go into a shell and do the very same. 

AED is opening up a bit more, but I don't expect full market transparency until such time they have confirmed everything. The reason of course, is that 
they would only be opening themselves to more market hammering....

The production rates provided give some indication of BOPD, but they have been testing and tweaking different means of extraction. But good question over the gas lift testing - they should have remained consistent and made further clarification over that.

With the prospects AED has, there is no doubt many a suitor interested in this. I expect a big player is involved, but time will tell.

SP low short term, when things get going, this will run. I can't be bullish enough, but again these are only my thoughts.... DOYR...


----------



## dj_420 (7 February 2008)

Talk about a fall from grace! Today SP falling another 8% today. I do agree that no news from this company at the moment is bad news.

The CEO should be doing everything to identify production problems and have them rectified. No news implies to me they are having a lot of issues still.

Anyone still holding these guys? I got out at avg of $9.70 odd when the first downgrades were ann. In hindsight one of best moves I have made considering where SP is today.


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## jonojpsg (7 February 2008)

Am still holding   Not sure whether to average down now they have dropped even lower than LOW!!  

Even at 6000bopd they are making US$55 x 6000 per day = $330k per day which is US$100m a year.  Theie MC is currently around US$270m which makes them pretty attractive IMO so I think I will...hold my breath and taer the plunge.....


----------



## doctorj (7 February 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> Even at 6000bopd they are making US$55 x 6000 per day = $330k per day which is US$100m a year. Theie MC is currently around US$270m which makes them pretty attractive IMO so I think I will...hold my breath and taer the plunge.....



Just check what their minimum lease payments and interest expenses are likely to be.  

My understanding of it is there's not the FCF left to redrill the field, meaning they'll need to go to market (debt or equity) for the funds to do it.


----------



## trillionaire#1 (7 February 2008)

bought a small parcel of AED for less than $2 ,seems very cheap on past glory days , maybe on the next market bounce they will spring back to $2.50 
or so ,but it seems the company is screaming for some outside assistance!


----------



## dj_420 (7 February 2008)

I am not so sure, closed on the low making a new yearly low, chartwise looks terrible.

People have been trying to pick this ones bottom since $5-6 and are now in a world of hurt. I wonder what if there are more downgrades on the way?


----------



## Fed23 (7 February 2008)

I been watching and I was a holder at $8.97, I got out after I lost 50% and saw there was no bounce back.

The company is no doing itself any favours by not releasing information. I dont know how the CEO can still look at his company and go to sleep at night. It's lost over 80% it's SP.


----------



## gfresh (7 February 2008)

Unfortunately, this is one company that looks like it doesn't give a toss about it's shareholders. Lack of information, lack of transparency, misleading information. 

However, that said, having not being burnt from AED (sold out above $10), tens of millions of barrels of oil is still worth billions of dollars. Even if it's not AED, surely it must be a takeover target based on the field itself??

No doubt another company may be able to do much more with the field than AED has been able to achieve through what looks like pure incompetence, but surely there must be buyers out there such as Santos, Oil Search, AWE, etc, etc that surely must be kind of curious?

Where this may leave existing shareholders is always the risk, I'm sure they will be at the back of the que with any takeover or farm-in if this eventuates. 

I have an order for $1.50, and reckon there is a good chance it will be met. That said, one that you have to be prepared to lose the lot.


----------



## Go Nuke (7 February 2008)

Yeah I hold dj after buying in at about $9 after the bounce back in October, but the good thing about not having alot of money, means I didn't buy many shares

Thats the only thing to smile about.
Other than that Ive just decided to forget about those shares and maybe look at them in about...ooh 10years time at the rate their going at. Because maybe by then, I can sell them to break even

Other than Erongo Energy this is also my worst investment ever.

I guess when you learn to walk you will fall over and hurt yourself till you learn NOT to fall over....as often anyway.


----------



## jimski (7 February 2008)

I sold the bulk of mine near the top but I still hold some. I think there is still life in this dog yet and I don't believe that no news is bad news - rather a case of once bitten by the market twice shy for the company.


----------



## NewIraq (8 February 2008)

*Why didn;t AED release this news to the Australian market ?*

*Did AED release this to the Australian Market?*


*Investors will be watching AED Oil Ltd (AED.AX)*


AED OIL8 February,200808/02/2008 11:12 Sydney, Australia.
Value Change % Change 
1.600 -0.120 -6.980% 

AED.AX , 1.600, -0.120, -6.980%), which fell nearly 13 percent on Thursday after a subsidiary of Norway's AGR Group, said AED owed it about A$41.5 million ($36.6 million).

"AED has informed AGR that AED together with its corporate advisors is in the process of introducing farm-in partners and assessing appropriate sources of funding with the intention of payment to AGR of the full amount invoiced," AGR said in a notice to the Oslo stock exchange on Feb 1.

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=377373

Stock has been absolutely demolished today.


----------



## gfresh (8 February 2008)

Well the plunge today looks like I'm a buyer, not sure how comfortable I'm with that, but not a large amount.. didn't expect it to plunge so quickly.. as per usual, news out there that isn't released to the market


----------



## kingbrown (8 February 2008)

Shame AED management 

Release the bad news as no news is pannicking the market 

Does any one know if these guys are going broke or what ??

Have dumped half this Dog this morning after buying in at $2 only a few days ago


----------



## Trader Paul (8 February 2008)

Hi folks,

AED ..... our cycle analysis indicates that this rout has more
to run yet ... looking for more negativity from 2102-18032008,
particularly around:

 21-25022008 ..... negative spotlight on AED

 17-18032008 ..... more negative news expected ... finance-related???

..... and, if AED survives:

Also looking for lows to be tested in late-June/early- July 2008, before
the first signs of recovery, with a positive cycle expected 09-10072008.

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## rub92me (8 February 2008)

Clearly some panic selling going on. Panic will shake out the last 'stale bulls'. I'm expecting some bounce from here, so wagered a small short term bet.


----------



## kingbrown (8 February 2008)

rub92me said:


> Clearly some panic selling going on. Panic will shake out the last 'stale bulls'. I'm expecting some bounce from here, so wagered a small short term bet.




Now down nearly 22% today 
Well every dog has its day?

Lets see if this dead cat can bounce??


----------



## TheTopBloke (8 February 2008)

Has anyone out there considered, that maybe, just maybe, management and others out there are snapping up the stock before any positive announcement is made?

As many have said before, no news is bad news. I thought the old adage was no news is good news.

It was explained to me by someone who has more oil expertise than myself, that if AED can fix the problems at the site, the stock will be worth far more, and if AED cannot fix the problems, it will be worthless.

So at the end of the day, you pay your money and you take your chances.


----------



## surfingman (8 February 2008)

DJ AED Oil Sold Off As Creditor Notes Overdue Payment

 MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Shares in Timor Sea oil producer AED Oil Ltd. (AED.AU) continued their rapid decline Friday as one of the company's creditors said it is awaiting an overdue payment of A$41.5 million.

Lower than expected production at AED's Puffin oil project have seen the Melbourne-based company sold off hard and the latest news drove the shares down 19% to A$1.39 by 0228 GMT Friday, off an earlier low of A$1.30.

The latest share slide comes after Norway's AGR Group ASA (AGO.OS) issued a statement to the Oslo exchange stating that it is owed about A$41.5 million by AED and that payment is overdue.

"AGR continues to investigate its options to recover this outstanding amount and is in dialog with AED to this end," AGR said.

The Norwegian oil technology and services group, which provided drilling services to AED last year, said it will make a provision of 10% against the full recovery of the outstanding amount.

AED wasn't immediately available for comment. 



I think debt being called in this environment can only spell trouble with only $26,897,000 in Cash and 41.5 million in Debt. They need some very positive news to pull them out of this one.


----------



## rub92me (8 February 2008)

Buy on rumour, sell on fact. Lots of rumour at the moment. They have a lot of oil assets and some debt. Sure, they'll need financing and fix their production problems, but I don't think things are all too desperate just yet.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2008)

rub92me said:


> Buy on rumour, sell on fact. Lots of rumour at the moment. They have a lot of oil assets and some debt. Sure, they'll need financing and fix their production problems, but I don't think things are all too desperate just yet.




The share price seems to show otherwise. One of the biggest sell offs within 3 months that I have seen in my short history :


----------



## rub92me (8 February 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> The share price seems to show otherwise. One of the biggest sell offs within 3 months that I have seen in my short history :



Don't disagree with you there, but they're running out of further bad news opportunities now. On the plus side, they won't come down another 9 dollars. 
Only down 3% from my purchase price - stop at 1.25. We'll see.


----------



## kingbrown (8 February 2008)

its after 3:30 
Still no official news !    

seems to be just clinging to around 1.40 now 
down 18%

Plenty are rubbing the mouse on the buy or sell button here 

Hopefully its a buy !


----------



## Superfly (8 February 2008)

Bought Hardmans when the market hated the stock... and look what happened..   ....so bought some this week, AED still have Oil... 

My 2 cents worth...


----------



## gfresh (8 February 2008)

Ann out after close... ASX query forced it out of them, and quite rightly. 

They did leave a lot of the details out of their quarterly on the exact details, however it looks like they believe they provided the general gist which was enough .  They do seem to play it down a fair bit, stating in effect they are discussing the amount owing with AGR and are confident of a resolution. How insistant AGR is an important question I guess - is it "we want our money now", to a more subdued "ok, we understand you're having some problems, we will give you a couple of extra months with interest thanks" ?? 

Production also slowed last few days due to gas lift problem, but we sort of already know they are having current problems with securing a constant flow. 

Again, this stock maybe doesn't deserve much more than it's current price, however if (an important if) they can sort things out, AED should still come through the other side. 

Through their "strategic review", I'm not sure their exact direction - but to me bringing in a larger player for 1) the expertise and experience (which AED seems to lack) and 2) securing funding and stability would be nice. If that means say 30%(?) buy-in, then so be it. Whatever that amount is, may be better than 100% of nothing if they fail to take action. 

6.9M shares traded (highest volume for a while) at $10.4M traded today... so obviously there are a few also that are hoping along these lines.


----------



## chops_a_must (9 February 2008)

Geez, you'd have to be missing a chromosome to have held onto this share. Because like those shareholders, this stock has the worst case of Down Syndrome I think I've seen.


----------



## jtb (9 February 2008)

rub92me said:


> Don't disagree with you there, but they're running out of further bad news opportunities now. On the plus side, they won't come down another 9 dollars.
> Only down 3% from my purchase price - stop at 1.25. We'll see.




Good on ya Rub,

I had to sleep today so was a girly man and set my stop a bee's di@k too tight.
$600 scalp turned into a $250 loss

Getting a bit gunshy lately as everytime I've got to work I wake up and all hells broken loose.
My missus is even following the yank elections now in between monitoring the DOW


----------



## Go Nuke (9 February 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Geez, you'd have to be missing a chromosome to have held onto this share. Because like those shareholders, this stock has the worst case of Down Syndrome I think I've seen.




Sorry Chops but Ive taken that insult personally!

As someone who is relatively new to the share market, we are not all gifted with right skills to know how to deal with these events that happen.

Some of us learn from our mistakes (and others don't) But I find it highly offensive that your implying I or anyone else who still holds this stock is missing a chromosome.

Its tough enough for some watching thier money go down the drain without having to read something as improper as your comment.

Personaly i use my inexperience at not using stops (because I have little capital to lose) as my reason for holding, but as I said before I don't hold many AED so I'm happy to just take the pain of getting burnt and forget about them.
The company IS producing oil after all so I dont think its likely to colapse.

Ok..I stuffed up, but I prefer to live with that *without* being put down


----------



## Santoro (11 February 2008)

Should be an interesting day for AED, management have alot to answer for, there inexperience in the oil sector is quite apparent, anyway they still have oil, produce oil and with a 4% increase friday and opec saying they will tighten production has got to help this stock.

If they are producing at a cost of 33 dollars a barrel, wasn't the price in this range when they planned all this. Most fortunate for them that the oil price shot throough the roof otherwise they would be broke by now. 

I would be discussing the  drilling costs if the contract drillers screwed up the wells!!

Watch out they don't become insolvent.

I'm in friday...may not hold for long if the price doesn't at least stabilise and/or move up.....


----------



## Trader Paul (11 February 2008)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> AED ..... our cycle analysis indicates that this rout has more
> to run yet ... looking for more negativity from 2102-18032008,
> ...






Hi folks,

AED ... on track so far. 

Downside price target ... just like MEO ... looking for an ambush, about 90% 
down from the October 2007 highs - that would make it around 1.14 ..... 

..... high volume last Friday, so some buyers already moving in, but may 
be a little too soon, as further negativity is expected, later in Feb 2008
... see post above for anticipated time cycle dates.

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 February 2008)

wow haven't the mighty fallen, this was one of the best performing stocks,

I never held AED but I did have some NWE its royalty partner in the North West Shelf program, 

Whats happened? Has all the oil dried up or something?

p.s. Paul you picked the bottom of MEO to a tee so I'll be watching with fascination to see how close you get we AED, cheers for the info


----------



## Weihuawang (11 February 2008)

Woodside would like to pay Shell 400 million US dollars for asset with an estimated proved and probable reserves of 21.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, or US$18.71 a barrel. What's the asset value of AED if its 100 million barrels of recoverable oil is true????? 

Lost all my profits in 2007 and another $10000 in 2008 on AED. 

The directors of AED are too risky. If they started Puffin 10 drill later, it would be much safer. Not like now, both lower product on Puffin NE and failure drill on Puffin SW comes together, and they nearly run out of money.


----------



## doctorj (11 February 2008)

There's every chance the greatly diminished flow rate is going to have a large impact on the amount of oil recoverable in the field.
The trouble is, the reduced flow rate has a non-linear impact on profit, future growth, the amount of recoverable oil and possibly also the life of the field.

It's too simple to say that because they're still pumping oil and it hasn't gone anywhere that they're still worth a lot.  Look at VRE - supposedly no debt and no hedge book and they still went under.  I'm not saying AED will, but there's a chance the field won't be profitable any more.


----------



## morton_mains (11 February 2008)

Can't believe how sour this has turned.
Its a travesty that ASIC haven't made a phone call months ago- The directors started the Decem. quartus terribillis with only $10M - obviously were planning the oil would flow straight to bank a/c but finished the quarter with $26M but had to defer at least $43m for one supplier. But how much else haven't they paid.

I find it unbelievable they tried to run so tight without extra facility in place months ago - why wouldn't you get extra facility - they could have afforded it - as they clearly thought they would be swimming in the black stuff, so why wouldn't you get more even it it cost a couple $M

Its one thing for a company to run short, its another thing to get such a publicly embarrrasing credit steer with suppliers ( who are they gonna call for more drilling? without cash up front), but watch the play now from MacBank (I'd be surprised if they weren't pushing rather than pulling the strings) - having placed US$85M last Feb at initial $6.44 conversion price they will be looking to somehow to dilute existing equity further at current price? 

[No longer own but sold at loss as continued to believe it just couldn't be as bad...yeah I know..]


----------



## gfresh (11 February 2008)

I've spent some time analysing things from a financial view, and it gets much worse than simple cash on hand.. debt on hand is mounting, probably into an unrecoverable position. 

Looking at the balance sheet.. from July 07 to present (half yearly):

incomings:

+$65.67M cash in (from oil sales I assume), only in last quarter
+$0.074M interest received

minus outgoings:

-$146.66M exploration/development (fixing problems that aren't fixed!)
-$37.25M production costs
-$4.1M administration / office costs
-$8.2M interest payable on finance

NET Cash Flow: -$130.539M 

Few other minor items on sheet give:
-$130.78M 
then add: 
*+ $117.24M borrowings*
+ $22.8M share issues
+ $18.16M cash on hand carried from previous year
- $0.525M exchange adjust
--
Leaving stated cash at end of quarter of $26.9M

However, if you look carefully "cash flows from financing", $117.24M is proceeds from borrowings - it's not their money!.. *leaving them in fact $90.34M behind*

---
This quarter -$21M cash flow, last quarter, -$109.37M. 

March quarter?? Another two digit $M outgoing I'm sure to make this even worse... but where is the money going to come from this time around? See below: 

*Here is the key item..*

Loan Facilities (end Dec07): 

Drawn: $176.24M 
Available: $187.68M 

So if I am correct, they are within $11M buffer of their loan limit. The loan drawn shows $152M last quarter (sep07 report), and this has increased. "Available" seems to have stayed pretty much the same, which seems to indicate that's a maximum, not a rolling total "remaining".. Therefore Dec07 quarter was $24.24M further drawn down... this quarter they do that again and their finance is dry 

In essence, AED is behind : $26.9M-$176M loan owing = $149.1M  

Maybe I am being alarmist, however it seems without at least a  *net inflow* (strong oil sales) of least say $50M this quarter, AED is in a dire position. I doubt even financiers will allow them to even reach the March 31st at this rate. 

*Feel free to correct my figures, or provide further input as I may be offtrack*, however I can currently see that AED is pretty much insolvant at current cash burn. Short of instantly improving their production they are gone in this quarter. 

And to be honest, I cannot see anybody would be keen on taking on that amount of debt in a venture partnership where AED could collapse. Easier to pick the corpse for the assets, than take the debt!

I will be selling tomorrow..


----------



## doctorj (11 February 2008)

It's probably more accurate to assess a company's cash flow from a going concern view point by looking at operating cash flow and add back exploration/development expenditure.

Then you'll want to assess the terms of their loan (will they be able to meet payments) and perhaps compare trade creditors to cost of sales to see if it's increasing.


----------



## reece55 (11 February 2008)

doctorj said:


> It's probably more accurate to assess a company's cash flow from a going concern view point by looking at operating cash flow and add back exploration/development expenditure.
> 
> Then you'll want to assess the terms of their loan (will they be able to meet payments) and perhaps compare trade creditors to cost of sales to see if it's increasing.




It will be interesting to see if they are indeed trading as a going concern anymore.....

Depends on where they are at with their negotiation with the engineer creditor in Canada - if they can come to an arrangement, then they may be able to justify it...... If not, then I fail to see they are able to pay their debts as and when they fall due, to quote Corporations Act. I find oil companies are one of the most difficult entities to value due to the fact that there are so many factors to consider when trying to get the stuff out of the ground.....

Cheers


----------



## sfx (11 February 2008)

Hiya all - Just been reading back through the posts.

As a follower of AED I do have to say that AED management should be shot.

I think their 'announcement style' are far short of selective wording to bolstering what is now becoming one of the biggest f*ck ups in the short history of Aust oilers. If they're not hiding stuff in announcements, they're saying nothing at all. 

Not to mention, they have a nack at committing company suicide. 

Management should be hung out to dry. If I was living in Melb, I'd camping at their door and hollering abuse, and not to mention throwing rotten tomatoes at passing management.

Whilst we share holders hang on for dear life, management continue to get paid top dollar for f*cking up. 

Has anyone out there managed to get these turkeys on the phone?! I haven't had the time to attempt to call.... 

Expect to see me at the next AGM dressed in a turkey outfit, wearing a friggin baggy golf hat and holding a box of tomatoes....

I continue to hold (in since IPO), and will continue to hold, as the fundamentals are still there. I just hope that they don't get bought out, and our shares don't get diluted for nothing.

Of course these are my own comments, Do Your Own Research of how to hunt down and maime AED management....


----------



## doctorj (11 February 2008)

reece55 said:


> It will be interesting to see if they are indeed trading as a going concern anymore...



The furthest AED management can realistically drag it out is till Feb 29. If E&Y qualify on going concern, the director's would be hard pressed to continue trading.

I'm sure it's being addressed as we speak, but I doubt there's going to be anyone willing to (a) lend them more in the state they're in or (b) farm in for large amounts of cash. If anyone is interested, they'll be patiently waiting for them to go under first.  

The only resolution they have is by negotiation with the creditor's that kicking up a fuss.  I suspect the reason why these guys have got their knickers in a knot is they have doubts about the performance of Puffin going forward so they've taken the decision it's best to start pressuring sooner, rather than later.  Before AED run up more debt and the line of creditors becomes longer.


----------



## kingbrown (12 February 2008)

*Is AED just dust now ?*

Check This !!  

*UBS 
have dropped price target for AED 
from $3.68 to $1.16* 

Guess we have all lost our money !!  

See link for Fn Arena news according to them its not good !


FN Arena News, Australia - 10 minutes ago
So what's this got to do with AED Oil ((AED))? It came to FNArena's attention that still sitting on the CS Top 20 list was one AED Oil, a stock that has ...


----------



## jonojpsg (12 February 2008)

Surely even if AED had to sell their assets, if they have 100m barrels of oil under the ground to sell @ fire sale prices of $5 per barrel, that gives them $500m which after they pay their debts of around $300m leaves $200m or about $1.70 per share.  Is this a possibility as far as what shareholders could get 

...or are we just going to get nothing and some other company will get AEDs (our!!!) oil for next to nicks


----------



## kingbrown (12 February 2008)

Down almost 15% today  


at UBS price already 
$1.16 

Wonder if she will break the $1 barrier ??  
or will it drop to


----------



## reece55 (12 February 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> Surely even if AED had to sell their assets, if they have 100m barrels of oil under the ground to sell @ fire sale prices of $5 per barrel, that gives them $500m which after they pay their debts of around $300m leaves $200m or about $1.70 per share.  Is this a possibility as far as what shareholders could get
> 
> ...or are we just going to get nothing and some other company will get AEDs (our!!!) oil for next to nicks




If you are the buyer, wouldn't you just wait until they go belly up - I think it unlikely that any purchaser is going to pay top dollar for an entity that is basically bankrupt. Any entity looking for a stake in the Puffin project is going to want an asset acquisition because otherwise they would inherit any liability of previous management.....
Cheers


----------



## doctorj (12 February 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> if they have 100m barrels of oil under the ground to sell



That's the big if.  The amount recoverable will be effected by the flow rates - slower flow rate means LESS is economically recoverable.  The question is how much will it be effected?


----------



## NewIraq (12 February 2008)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> AED ... on track so far.
> 
> ...




On track indeed Paul ... good call .. low at 1.15 so far ..
So .. will there be a quick bounce from these levels .. or will it bounce around here for awhile?


----------



## chops_a_must (12 February 2008)

sfx said:


> Hiya all - Just been reading back through the posts.
> 
> As a follower of AED I do have to say that AED management should be shot.
> 
> ...




Mate. You do realise the absurdity and hypocrisy in your own breath and within a few sentences there don't you?

With terrible management, it can **** up even the best underlying fundamentals. It gets proven time and time again.

You've given up 90+% of profits and risk losing even your entire investment. It's just nuts. But you know, I guess that's the reason why some of us can make a profit.

My guesstimate is that Macquarie have written most of their investment off, and that they can get the best return by waiting for AED to go bust. Otherwise they would have raised money while the SP was not teetering on zero. From memory, MCQ would be paid out first as well, with their investment. There isn't going to be anything here for investors if it goes belly up....

The amount of stupidity demonstrated on these boards of late is completely staggering.


----------



## trillionaire#1 (12 February 2008)

I'm out! You can only take so much

Can't see a bail out, was hoping Macquarie might have pitched in
But I guess theres no point flogging a dead horse.


----------



## kingbrown (12 February 2008)

*DOG*

Lucky I was not greedy 1st up !
Something now is better than zero later.

Have to laugh though ! 

Been Down to $1.06  
Unaware buyers now maybe in trying to average out !? 
Are they suckers ??


Been nice watching all your posts the last few months 
Time to move on.

Guess we all should have taken notice of the antics 
*CHOPS* a little more !

Ciao


----------



## skunkmonkey (12 February 2008)

AED has put me off shares for life.  In at $8.90 and now at $1.16 only 3 months later with no explaination or acknowledgement of any issues from management.  The ASX were all over CDU - how can they stand back and watch these guys crash without seeking some answers? 



I'm in stage two of the KÃ¼bler-Ross model of the five discrete stages by which people deal with tragedy.  

Can someone please post the UBS text from the Avena website?


----------



## jeffho (12 February 2008)

damn looks like it's going to be a 10k tax write off for me this year


----------



## trillionaire#1 (12 February 2008)

did you know the the chairman of this ...er  shamozal is one ironicaly named 
Mr . Dix!....go figure.


----------



## ZacR (12 February 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Geez, you'd have to be missing a chromosome to have held onto this share. Because like those shareholders, this stock has the worst case of Down Syndrome I think I've seen.




Obviously coming from someone much wiser than everyone else who has never ever lost money on a stock.


----------



## chops_a_must (12 February 2008)

ZacR said:


> Obviously coming from someone much wiser than everyone else who has never ever lost money on a stock.




It's not about losing money, it's about potentially losing ALL of your money. And no, I've never put myself in that position, and I hope my trading/ investing and risk management strategies never allow for that to happen.

It is just utter nonsense that people have been in this from the beginning and given back 90% of their profits, or people losing 90% of the money they put in this stock. With a very real possibility of losing it all. It is just insane.


----------



## ZacR (12 February 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> It's not about losing money, it's about potentially losing ALL of your money. And no, I've never put myself in that position, and I hope my trading/ investing and risk management strategies never allow for that to happen.
> 
> It is just utter nonsense that people have been in this from the beginning and given back 90% of their profits, or people losing 90% of the money they put in this stock. With a very real possibility of losing it all. It is just insane.




I agree, to not have stops on a stock like this is naive/ risky. 

I have lost about a grand on this stock and that stings. However, some people here by the looks of things have lost $10,000's - I don't think your comments like before add any benefit to anyone...

Also, so we are not at crossed paths, I assume you mean you've never put yourself in a position to lose all of your invesment - I refuse to believe you have never lost something on a stock.

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must (12 February 2008)

ZacR said:


> I agree, to not have stops on a stock like this is naive/ risky.
> 
> I have lost about a grand on this stock and that stings. However, some people here by the looks of things have lost $10,000's - I don't think your comments like before add any benefit to anyone...
> 
> ...




Mate... if I had never lost anything on a stock, I sure as hell wouldn't be on this forum. But yes, I guess this is the reason why they say buy and holding is the most risky way to be in the market. I just don't understand that philosophy.


----------



## sfx (12 February 2008)

Chops I have to say that my comments maybe absurd, and you have the right to wield that stick at me for that. I have every right to vent, and bring a little humour to the situation (although it being dark humour).

However, its easy to sit back now in hindsight and ramp down on AED. 

If it were still continuing on its high, or higher, then you'd be saying completely different things perhaps. I haven't checked out your posts from when AED was at high sail, but I dare say that you were also riding the waves.

Like very few people on this forum, I have confidence, and hold for the long term. Its not to say that I haven't made a profit on these guys since IPO, and continue to do so, so I'm not complaining. Just wish I picked the large fall and had some juicy ETOs lined up.

I continue to hold a position, as with other oilers who have suffered from the market downturn, and I'm going to give them time. 

AED have the worst management I know of, and thats where we end our commonality Chops. 

Of course these are my own comments and strategy...


----------



## Damien505 (13 February 2008)

The double digits drop off the SP everyday amazes me everytime, that said, I'm not kicking myself for jumping in on the slide when I did at $2.50, its hard to pick the bottom, especially on this one! Will it go lower? Maybe-maybe not, hindsight is great. I think there is plenty enough potential for AED, most of this is based on lack of news and fearful speculation so I'm hanging in there for some good news and the long term.  If you like the thrill of high gains high risk then this is for you right now, as is RRS.


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## dj_420 (13 February 2008)

IMO there is a reason that AED has been sold down heavily, cash flow problems and production problems.

I thought that ongoing costs for production were around $450, 000 per day. With AED producing around 6, 500 barrels per day we get about $585, 000 revenue. So the company is _just _cashflow positive. But with its 100 odd thousand per day how long is that going to take to pay back just the first 40 million owed.

I don't think people are understanding the issue with cash flow, if it cannot pay its debts it will become insolvent. AED needs a lot more finance to fix the field but no one wants to pony up finance if it cannot be repayed. Other companies may have been looking at the field but with ongoing production problems are very wary.

Do we even know how much oil is in the field with these continual downgrades? People keep stating AED have 100 million barrels surely thats worth something? Well the recoverable oil could now be quite low due to misunderstanding of the geology of the tight sands in the field.

I am watching from the sidelines and do not intend to get in after VRE went into administration. Sure they are a spec but similar problem, not nough cash flow to pay their debts.

I bought into AED at $6 on the rise up and sold at $9.70, this was when sentiment was great and they were producing 30, 000 barrels per day. Its now down to 6, 500, from the last ann.

But IMO there is a reason is has been sold down, and the reasons are obvious.


----------



## nizar (13 February 2008)

dj_420 said:


> I bought into AED at $6 on the rise up and sold at $9.70, this was when sentiment was great and they were producing 30, 000 barrels per day.




I bought it when it broke the $5 resistance and sold it at $7-something.
Big clients from MacBank and UBS were in this heavily back in those days as well. 

Cannot believe how much its being taken to the cleaners!

Use stops guys, please.

Its true that if you bet, you cant win, but remember also that if you have no chips, you cant bet.

"Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have" - Paul Tudor Jones.


----------



## surfingman (13 February 2008)

ASX Announcement 13 February 2008

Cyclone Watch

The FPSO – Front Puffin advises it is presently on cyclone watch. There is a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Kalumburu.

As standard operating procedure the FPSO has stopped production. Should a cyclone develop, as it is expected to, the FPSO will disconnect from its mooring and travel to calmer waters. During this time the crew remain onboard. Maintenance and other works can be conducted during this period.

AED can't win at the moment..


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## gfresh (13 February 2008)

DJ is right on the money there.. 

Heavily indebted to get the operation up and running, probably a 6 month window to ensure that production gets up to scratch, and they've failed. It was always a tight window, and unfortunately with the expected cash flow isn't coming through, there is only so long it can go on like this.. No matter what the potential is there in the field, AED has not utilised this as expected, and importantly, where debts are becoming due. 

A larger oiler would have other projects ongoing to bear out a costly research program to fix the issue, but as AED is a one trick pony, it's gig is probably up. 

A cyclone stop really doesn't help things to add to the extremely negative cashflow position  

VRE should be a warning.. stay clear!


----------



## laurie (13 February 2008)

surfingman said:


> ASX Announcement 13 February 2008
> 
> Cyclone Watch
> 
> ...




Maybe AED can apply for a force majeure this should at least give them some breathing space 

cheers laurie


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## vishalt (13 February 2008)

This stock is one roller coaster, wow @ $11 to $1, thats what scares me about small caps D:

But I think this one had some nasty issues on the inside.


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## refined silver (14 February 2008)

Woooo Hoooo!!!

Up 30% already today!!!

Now where can you find those of gains, eh???  

A quality stock.


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## dj_420 (14 February 2008)

refined silver said:


> A quality stock.




I wouldn't say quality, but the gains are nice!

Disc I do not hold, I am watching from sidelines to see how their cash position pans out.


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## agro (14 February 2008)

looks as though positive sentiment has returned to this stock,  

also have noticed alot of trades under $500 = bots or some form of takeover??

if it finishes above 1.50 it will finish above its 7 day average

provided a solid gain on DOW tonight would further encourage buying

my


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## rub92me (14 February 2008)

refined silver said:


> Woooo Hoooo!!!
> Up 30% already today!!!
> Now where can you find those of gains, eh???
> A quality stock.



Hehe. If you held from $10 to $1 then you only have another 870% to go before you break even.


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## Go Nuke (14 February 2008)

agro said:


> looks as though positive sentiment has returned to this stock,
> 
> also have noticed alot of trades under $500 = bots or some form of takeover??
> 
> ...




Indeed a good day for anyone who was game enough to get in today.

But how much confidence does anyone have that the DOW will have another good day tomorrow?
I have very little, thats why I didn't bother to jump on today.
Got too many losses as it is so like dj, I'm just a spectator too.


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## Snakey (14 February 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Indeed a good day for anyone who was game enough to get in today.
> 
> But how much confidence does anyone have that the DOW will have another good day tomorrow?
> I have very little, thats why I didn't bother to jump on today.
> Got too many losses as it is so like dj, I'm just a spectator too.




It was a strong close and it may even buck the trend against the dow tomorrow. Its been a very long down trend and I dont think it will correct it self in one day. 10 to 1 dollar is a big fall and things look promising in the short term in there recent reports. I got onboard just after the lunch time low. At $1.80 just last week I think we still have a lot of room for movement


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## agro (14 February 2008)

Snakey said:


> It was a strong close and it may even buck the trend against the dow tomorrow. Its been a very long down trend and I dont think it will correct it self in one day. 10 to 1 dollar is a big fall and things look promising in the short term in there recent reports. I got onboard just after the lunch time low. At $1.80 just last week I think we still have a lot of room for movement




Well it did finish above its 7 day average.

Dow futures +31 as of 5.37 EST..

You will find that a stock which has been oversold will return to normality when those who sold buy back into it inevitably lifting prices.

I am not sure whether we will see $11 level again but anything possible.

I am sure it will receive publicity at least from the media..  who knows


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## refined silver (14 February 2008)

agro said:


> also have noticed alot of trades under $500 = bots or some form of takeover??




Maybe they were $5,000 trades when they bought in????  

I bought in at 93c sold all out $4.60 on the way up and thought I'd missed the boat. Unfortunately for some family members, I didn't sell all of theirs. At least sold some so got out ahead.


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## agro (14 February 2008)

refined silver said:


> Maybe they were $5,000 trades when they bought in????
> 
> I bought in at 93c sold all out $4.60 on the way up and thought I'd missed the boat. Unfortunately for some family members, I didn't sell all of theirs. At least sold some so got out ahead.




thats true

you do get some left over stock but don't rule out the possibility..

when you see constantly on course of sales "170" every 5 minutes doesn't that ring a bell?


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## agro (15 February 2008)

Oil at near time highs - up $2 over night

although the dow finished down considerably another rally on AED is expected ..

thoughts welcomed


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## Snakey (15 February 2008)

agro said:


> Oil at near time highs - up $2 over night
> 
> although the dow finished down considerably another rally on AED is expected ..
> 
> thoughts welcomed



Yes agro and bucked the trend as thought. I think if it dropped today on poor ambient conditions (dow/asx)I think people would be all over it as this is definatly the bounce from the fall. my target here is two bucks which would make the fall 80% from $10 though it will probally shoot past and settle back there ....my two bucks
I must learn to type faster


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## agro (15 February 2008)

Snakey said:


> Yes agro and bucked the trend as thought. I think if it dropped today on poor ambient conditions (dow/asx)I think people would be all over it as this is definatly the bounce from the fall. my target here is two bucks which would make the fall 500% from $10 though it will probally shoot past and settle back there ....my two bucks




very strong support - who knows whats going on behind the scenes

very close to its 21 day average now


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## Snakey (15 February 2008)

agro said:


> very strong support - who knows whats going on behind the scenes
> 
> very close to its 21 day average now



Lightning fast bounce. I would like to see this stay above $1.80 for the rest of the day for this to be a chance to run further. buyers seem still strong and sellers still less than half the buyers.
Will show chart soon


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## Snakey (15 February 2008)

Target reached out at 2.02 side lines for me for a while will watch for future events to see whats happenning here. thank you aed oil good luck holders unfortunatly my intra day chart is out of date so wont be posting it up


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## gfresh (15 February 2008)

Anyhow, this will be my last post on AED, as it may come across as downramping, rather than simply a friendly warning ... but I wouldn't be all that confident based on this bounce that troubles are over.  AFG, and CNP also bounced and look now. 

Total lack of market information if there is any positive news to be had. I'm sure somebody may know something, but no announcements mean that joe blow shareholder doesn't!

If we look at December (see chart), there was a strong buying spree based on from what I remember absolutely no announcements at the time. Were a few prominent broker reports still putting out revised targets somewhere around $7-$8 I remember, which was probably the cause. You have to question whether this was just to allow some to offload a bunch of stock, as after this dropped rapidly. 

But a trade is a trade for short-termers... for long-term.. more information needed!


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## Snakey (15 February 2008)

Showing signs of over bought now but people dont want to give up top payers will be hurt and I think caution should be advised Sellers building in strength and the top has been found down hill for a while consolidation aT MY TARGET $2 IMO for a week or so


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## JTLP (15 February 2008)

WOOSH I got burnt...

I was in and out and making money.

Got in at 2.70 went to exit at 2.95. Next thing I know BAM its back to 2.60 and slipping...EEK

Lots of dirty burnt fingers today.


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## Weihuawang (15 February 2008)

Hopefully it is Nexus Energy to acquire AED oil on market, like it did on Anzon before. 

Compared with AED oil, Nexus Energy is a much safer oil explorer. It seems AED may become a takeover target of Nexus. 

**********NEWS on 23 Jan 2008***********

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Nexus Energy Ltd., the Australian oil company developing a natural gas liquids project, agreed to buy rival Anzon Australia Ltd. for about A$648 million ($564 million) in cash and stock, topping an offer from Arc Energy Ltd. 

The merged company will have oil production of 4,600 barrels a day this year from Anzon's Basker-Manta project, rising to 16,900 barrels with the start-up of Nexus's Longtom gas field off the southeast coast in 2009. The start-up of Nexus's $1 billion Crux gas liquids project off the northwest coast and of the gas part of the Basker project will boost output to more than 57,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day by 2011, Nexus said. 

The increased size of the company will enable it to consider international investments, Tchacos said on the conference call. It will continue to study ``all opportunities'' for further acquisitions, which may include AED Oil Ltd., he said. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net


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## chops_a_must (15 February 2008)

Weihuawang said:


> Hopefully it is Nexus Energy to acquire AED oil on market, like it did on Anzon before.
> 
> Compared with AED oil, Nexus Energy is a much safer oil explorer. It seems AED may become a takeover target of Nexus.
> 
> ...




I hope they don't. I own NXS, and the debt that AED has would be enough to sink just about any company.


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## Fed23 (15 February 2008)

Just day traders pushing the stock IMO. I saw it reach 2.90 then massive drop back to 2.50.

I can see this back to $1.20 next week.


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## doctorj (15 February 2008)

Gents, a reminder that the posting of unsupported price targets is frowned upon at ASF.  A chart, or FA or something is required, rather than 'gut feel'.


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## Weihuawang (15 February 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I hope they don't. I own NXS, and the debt that AED has would be enough to sink just about any company.




Sold 900 shares of AED @ $1.96 and bought 1000 shares of NXS in the morning trade, still have 2800 shares of AED on hand.


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## jackson8 (15 February 2008)

Looking at course of trades on comsec site there appears that at 7.05 am there was a trade of 20000 shares at $7.50  
does anyone understand what this is as personally do not quite understand what is going on.


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## agro (15 February 2008)

=DJ INTERVIEW: AED Oil Still Cashflow Positive - Chairman15/02/2008 12:26PM AEST
By Alex Wilson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Timor Sea oil producer AED Oil Ltd. (AED.AU) said late Thursday the company remains cashflow positive despite its production problems and still has a number of parties seriously looking at taking an interest in its project.

Lower than expected production from the company's Puffin project and concerns about overdue debts saw AED Oil shares crash to a low of A$1.01 this week, from a high of more than A$11 in October last year, as the market worries about a cashflow crunch.

AED founder and Chairman David Dix told Dow Jones Newswires the company is facing difficulties, with production well below what was expected, but that it is working hard to get its project back on track.

"We obviously have significant production problems compared to where we thought we were and we have got a whole lot of liabilities," he said.

"But we are still producing profitably, we are still cashflow positive in relation to our ongoing operations. Taking all that into account you have still got a fair amount of oil in a region that is 100% owned by a company, and the optionality of that is enormous."

AED has appointed Macquarie to carry out a strategic review and interested parties are carrying out due diligence on Puffin as the company looks for a partner to take a stake and provide a much needed cash injection.

Analysts say the outcome of this farm in process looms as a key event for AED, and the arrival of a white knight could help the company start to rebuild market confidence.

Dix said there had been 17 parties involved in the process, 11 are still active and a handful appear to have potential, with more interest from offshore parties than local players.

Investor confidence in AED hit a new low this week when Norwegian drilling services company ARG Group ASA (AGO.ASA) said AED owes it A$41.5 million, which is now overdue, for work done on the Puffin project.

However, the stock rallied on Thursday, climbing 40% and extended this Friday, to be up 63% at A$2.36at 0125 GMT.

Dix said he did not know what was behind the bounce in the share price and analysts are also puzzled, with one suggesting it may be due to some investors closing out short positions.

One criticism of AED has been that it did not look for a partner earlier to spread the cost and risk of the commissioning of Puffin, and Dix concedes this is a "fair comment".

"We wanted to get up to a certain stage where it had realized what we saw as the fair value of the project before we started getting into that situation, because otherwise we could be selling our shareholders short," he said.

"We need more back up in relation to joint venture partners. We are the only company in Australia who own 100% of its asset in this sector, which is terrific if everything is going right but not so good if it's not."

Shareholders in AED have this week expressed concerns about the company's abilities to pay of its debts and analysts say without a farm in partner it may struggle.

Compounding the difficulties is Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, which has forced AED to cease oil production at Puffin at a time when it can scarcely afford to lose the revenue.

Dix said he can understand investor concerns, but that the market sell off has been overdone.

"I don't discount the fact that there are risks because we do owe people money," Dix said.

"But we are going through processes and people are working with us to ameliorate those risks and hopefully realize some significant value."

Analysts said there have also been questions raised over the AED's technical performance in configuring the drilling of wells.

Dix said the company is now working with specialist third party consultants to ensure the key Puffin 11 well does not face the same issues.

"If we get Puffin 11 in there we are going to be producing up to 20,000 barrels from that well alone, which suddenly changes the profile significantly," he said.

Dix said the company is doing all it can to extract itself from its current situation and return to realizing value for shareholders.

"Every day we draw a line under the previous day and say, 'OK let's see what can tackle and what more we can do to get the company to realize the potential that it has'," he said.

"I think that is the only way, in these sorts of awkward situations, that you can handle it."


-By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4313; alex.wilson@dowjones.com 


*thought something was going on.. keep a watch on it as it is trading above its 21 day average now (do i post a chart cause i said that?)*


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## Joe Blow (15 February 2008)

agro said:


> *thought something was going on.. keep a watch on it as it is trading above its 21 day average now (do i post a chart cause i said that?)*




The more information you can post to support your view the better.

The problem we have is when people make assertions in stock threads without backing them up with any kind of supporting arguments or analysis and this is something we are going to be getting tougher on.

In short, the rule is: If you make an assertion (e.g This stock is undervalued) then you must explain WHY you believe that.

I think that is a reasonable expectation.


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## agro (15 February 2008)

Joe Blow said:


> The more information you can post to support your view the better.
> 
> The problem we have is when people make assertions in stock threads without backing them up with any kind of supporting arguments or analysis and this is something we are going to be getting tougher on.
> 
> ...




yeah totally agree Joe - constructive rather than ramping 

alright see what happens as a price query has been received


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## ithatheekret (15 February 2008)

ASX and a speeding ticket now , be strange if it turned out to be short covering . Up nearly a buck . best day in yonks .


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## Go Nuke (15 February 2008)

Ok I stand corrected!

I was doubtful that AED could continue its way up if the DOW was down and I was wrong.

So bought in this morning at $1.60 and out at $1.90.
Its a shame I missed the top but I dont have access to a computer so couldn't watch it all day.
Guess I'm happy with that trade

Not game to jump on again though.


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## benwex (20 February 2008)

On a day where oil finishes above $100 a barrel and most of its piers are doing very well, good old AED is getting shorted to the cleaners!!!

It just goes to show that when a company suffers a massive slide and bears are killing it, the bears will keep it down for a very very long time and keep fighting against any meaningful rally...

Benwex


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## Snakey (21 February 2008)

Aed oil looks to have bottomed today at 1.60 and with things looking promising in the reports and the price of oil on the rise I've re-entered this one. Investors have waited on the sidelines and now appear to be re-entering


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## dale (21 February 2008)

Bit of a rookie question, but I don't understand why the AED sp would make such a comeback today, despite a lack of positive announcements? I know oil is on the up but if AED has hedged contracts what difference does it make?

cheers
nick


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## jackson8 (22 February 2008)

announcement out this afternoon about fixing existing wells and future production levels 
interested to know anyones thoughts on this latest addition to the ongoing drama
i bought in at $7 and am wondering whether increase in production rates could see price lift back to these levels or not, just curious as to how many centuries i may have to hold onto this stock to get even $


----------



## Rockety (23 February 2008)

dale said:


> Bit of a rookie question, but I don't understand why the AED sp would make such a comeback today, despite a lack of positive announcements? I know oil is on the up but if AED has hedged contracts what difference does it make?
> 
> cheers
> nick




Tried to do some intraday on this one, made nice profits in the last week both going long or short. Dont have the chart here but as i recall it was siding on 1.8 for a long time with no volume in it really, was waiting for a rally to start and to ride it. Was speculating more on short. Actually it started jumped in around 1,78 short (too early, but i just got my trading rights at company and was a bit hot headed:[) it has fallen to 1,75 kinda fast than sellers just vanished..., funny movement started it was looking real bad for my pos, couldnt really close as there were no asks in, but got it closed at 1.80. Answer to you after my little monolog:

5 minutes later i was analysing my mistake and suddenly trading halt came due to the "well update announcement". Bids were coming in for 2 dollar+ a nice bull rally with a gap under it with lot of profit takers once it ended.
Despite that i have closed and realised loss intraday, i was statisfied with myself in the way of closing, becouse if i hadnt kept my s/l rules and let emotions come over me to wait for droping in price, should have been around a 20% loss instead of a 3%.
Really curious what will AED do in the future, hopefully long this one, will see 

have a nice weekend all-


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## laurie (24 February 2008)

I'm very surprised that AED has not come to shareholders for money  normally by now you would see either a non-renounceable issue or a sp issue based on ratio e.g. 1:5 or a flat dollar amount $5000-$4000 etc it would have to be around the $2 to keep dilution low that would add 50M shares

cheers laurie


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## oldblue (24 February 2008)

Perhaps this indicates that AED need more than just more capital. ie a strong partner with the expertise - and money - to help solve the Puffin problems.


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## benwex (28 February 2008)

TRADING HALT

"opportunity to assess offers received from a number of parties in relation to the sale of a portion of its assets pursuant to the strategic review process previously announced.

The company expects to be able to make a further announcement to the market within the two business days of the trading halt period."

Looks like we will be able to get some sort of firmer re rating for this company...

benwex


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## Aegis123 (28 February 2008)

hey do you guys think the company requested a trading halt because good news is about to be announced?


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## Aargh! (28 February 2008)

Aegis123 said:


> hey do you guys think the company requested a trading halt because good news is about to be announced?




???????? Did you read the announcement. Surely you could deduce some information from it? 

Here it is for you....

"AED Oil Limited requests a trading halt of its securities to provide the Company an opportunity to assess offers received from a number of parties in relation to the sale of a portion of its assets pursuant to the strategic review process previously announced."


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## kingbrown (28 February 2008)

Is this it for good old aed ?

Worst investment I have ever made, cant believe you guys in here are still talking it up 

Looks to me that the fat lady getting ready to sing with this mob?


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## gfresh (28 February 2008)

Doesn't sound like the end.. but "disposing of assets" doesn't sound too impressive to me unless it really is successful in reduce their distressed position, and turn the ship around before it runs into the rocks for good. 

I wonder who the buyer is? Could be good for the buyer's SP ..


----------



## raydu (28 February 2008)

Macquarie Group in one of interests groups. I saw this news from REUTERS website. The news is listed on the website today. 
"Shares in AED took a further hit after Norwegian oil services firm AGR Group AGR.OL said AED was overdue in paying an AGR subsidiary about A$41.5 million ($37 million). AED had said it was still cashflow positive and that it was in discussions with AGR over payments."
The cashflow problem, maybe the negative news!


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## Bush Trader (28 February 2008)

oldblue said:


> Perhaps this indicates that AED need more than just more capital. ie a strong partner with the expertise - and money - to help solve the Puffin problems.




I think oldblue may have it right.  I think they may be looking for someone to farm in and have had a number of approaches, which they are contemplating.

Any guesses; WPL, STO, TAP etc

It been a grat stock to short term trade of late on the bounce then retrace, with the right farm in partner it may show more stability from here on.  Any thoughts?


Cheers


BT


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## Aargh! (3 March 2008)

So what does this mean for shareholders?

*MARKET RELEASE*
3 March 2008
*AED Oil Limited*
*SUSPENSION FROM OFFICIAL QUOTATION*

The securities of AED Oil Limited (the “Company”) will be suspended from quotation immediately at the request of the Company, pending the release of an announcement by the Company.

Security Code: AED
Julia Kagan
Senior Adviser, Issuers (Melbourne)


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## impala_group (3 March 2008)

Aargh! said:


> So what does this mean for shareholders?




i think it means we have to wait longer for the announcement!!! It looks to me it could be good news....why??

there has been increasing bid for the shares...2.20 then 3.00 then 3.1 at the moment. (whoever these guys are, they must be aware of something  Good!!)

the reconnection and the starting of oil production at puffin on the 25th!!

no change in director interest in compay recently...in form of "getting rid of excess shares". Usually an indication of negative new for the company.. but this is just my observation, i could be wrong!! what do you guys reckon??


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## Justthinkin (3 March 2008)

Holding a suspended stock is not a comfortable position but there is jack effluent you can do about it!!! The position seems to be that whatever AED is attempting to do, couldn't be done within the trading halt timeframe. That suggests that the matter is either more complex than originally contemplated or the directors are having a little difficulty reconciling the representations made thus far. Importantly, AED requested the suspension and I suppose would need to have explained to the ASX why they wanted the suspension, for how long and what might trigger the change. Somebody knows in which case it shouldn't be long before we get something...albeit 'negotiations are continuing'. 

I think the forum is correct in saying that AED needs to dispose of assets or farm-in partners. Had it the internal expertise itwouldn't be in the position it is ie negotiating with banks, calming creditors, restoring wells, enduring cyclones etc etc.

If management were bright they'd be looking for a partner (ie farm in rather than asset sale) of similar size in the oil and gas business with a good balance sheet but especially a good reputation.

Here's hoping as that's all that is left once suspended.


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## Aargh! (3 March 2008)

impala_group said:


> i think it means we have to wait longer for the announcement!!! It looks to me it could be good news....why??
> 
> there has been increasing bid for the shares...2.20 then 3.00 then 3.1 at the moment. (whoever these guys are, they must be aware of something  Good!!)
> 
> ...




The bidding whilst pre-trade or in a halt doesn't mean much at all. It probably is a program "jumping in" at the front of the queue.

Puffin was re-connected before the trading halt so it has no influence.

I don't think the directors would be stupid enough to inside trade to offload shares whilst under so much scrutiny already.


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## oldblue (3 March 2008)

Yes, a trading halt can only last for 2 days so the suspension only means that it is taking longer to get all the ducks in line.
As a small NWE holder, I'm thinking (hoping?) that the news will be good when eventually released. Besides, you wouldn't want to announce good news on a day like this!


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## Justthinkin (3 March 2008)

So this afternoons announcement says "... This proposal is from a
significant Company which has received all internal approvals and is for a majority interest in the Company’s assets...". As AED has circa $300M market cap and internal approval has already been obtained, that would confirm they are a large player or it's a really cheap price. 

I'm curious though what represents a majority interest in the Company's assets. The transaction must be of the order $200M if they are to pay debt and creditors. Hmmmm!!

I think the next announcement will be interesting. If AED has its foot on the reserves touted and it's plight is not otherwise hopeless, difficult to understand against a background of $100 / bbl why it wouldn't take the parcel to market. Hmmmmmm!


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## Weihuawang (3 March 2008)

3:00 PM 03/03/2008

AED Oil Ltd has commenced negotiations with a "significant" company that has proposed to buy a majority interest in the troubled oil producer.

The negotiations started after AED assessed "a number" of proposals.

AED shares are currently in a trading halt. They last traded at $1.85 after reaching a peak close of $11.40 on October 17.

"The proposal is from a significant company which has received all internal approvals and is for a majority interest in the company's assets," AED said in a statement.

AED said it would be able to extinguish its bank debt and repay creditors if an agreement with the party was reached.

It would also end up with extra cash to spend on development and exploration opportunities.

The Melbourne-based group said in January that it had initiated a strategic review and confirmed it had received approaches from a number of parties after suffering problems with its Puffin project in the Timor Sea.

The company appointed Macquarie Group Ltd to undertake the strategic review after admitting the it required "additional funding" to pursue its opportunities.

Earlier this month, Norwegian firm AGR Group said AED was overdue in paying a $41.5 million bill. AED said it was confident of achieving a satisfactory resolution to the matter.


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## prawn_86 (3 March 2008)

The way i read it is they are going backwards from producer to explorer stage if this goes through.

Not that they really have any choice, but theoretically the will be the same as any other O&G explorer. Not good for long term holders imho


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## jet328 (3 March 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> The way i read it is they are going backwards from producer to explorer stage if this goes through.




You read wrong. AED's problem is that it doesn't have the cash to further develop the field & pay its debts. This farmin will allow them to retire the debt & have to cash to spend on further joint development. It doesn't say that they will stop producing anywhere. If you read previous announcements GCA & Schlumberger have outlined plans for remedial action on the current producing well. 



prawn_86 said:


> Not good for long term holders imho




Not sure how you came up with this, but how were AED going to get rid of some debt & increase production (most important factor) without farming someone in?

Don't hold AED, but have an interest in NWE which has an ORR over the permit. Only good news for NWE which pays zero in costs & yet is exposed to the upside that further drilling will hopefully bring.


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## prawn_86 (3 March 2008)

Because AED are in such a precarious position at the moment with regards to their debt, profits (or lack thereof), and field complications, I'm fairly certain anyone buying any form of stake from them will be able to screw them to the wall.

That is where the problem stems from. Even if AED do still hold part of the field, when (and if) production does increase, their stake will b a lot lower so the profits will not be as high.

They are in a ****e position and do not really have much room to move, hence why I think it is not good for holders.


----------



## oldblue (3 March 2008)

That's true. But better to have a smaller share of something that can be produced than 100% of an impossible "dream".

Mind you, as an NWE holder, it suits me fine, so long as someone pays the ORR on the Puffin field.


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## impala_group (3 March 2008)

True!!!

Either way, i think they'll get that oil pumped to the surface with a partner injected $$ (which will understandably take a lot of time negotiating a good deal for both parties) or asset sale (a shortterm fix to their cashflow problems).


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## laurie (3 March 2008)

Well at least hopefully there is no share dilution so the currency being used here is *OIL* and it being well over $100 a barrel who ever is the JV partner must have use for this oil interesting to see the sp on open 

cheers laurie


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## michael_selway (3 March 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Because AED are in such a precarious position at the moment with regards to their debt, profits (or lack thereof), and field complications, I'm fairly certain anyone buying any form of stake from them will be able to screw them to the wall.
> 
> That is where the problem stems from. Even if AED do still hold part of the field, when (and if) production does increase, their stake will b a lot lower so the profits will not be as high.
> 
> They are in a ****e position and do not really have much room to move, hence why I think it is not good for holders.




Hi do you know when theyare coming out of the halt?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 9.7 60.6 133.2 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

Thanks

MS


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## Justthinkin (3 March 2008)

It would be fair to say that I've stared at this for sometime. If Macquarie were not involved I'd have a fair chance of solving the riddle but...

It seems to me that the Puffin NE reserves potential is not under question but the rate at which it can be extracted is. Actuals look like 10,000 bopd compared to touted 25,000~30,000 bopd. So if you were a believer in recent announcement whereby improvements to Puffin 7 could result in 2~3 times increased output, faith would be restored... somewhat.

Regretably, I'm no petrochemical engineer so I don't have any concept of how much rigs and undersea infrastructure might cost. If I follow the announcement trail it looks like AED acquitted anywhere up to $170M approx representing a share of jv assets plus money spent exploring Puffin SW. The unknown for me is (a) how much of the $170M is directly related to the NE infrastructure JV; (b) how much have the cost blown out; and (c) what % contribution this represents.

If you excuse my ignorance, I could easily conclude that the $170M represents 70% of expenditure associated with infrastructure which is the subject of a JV with a Singapore company (and Frontline Limited (A Bermuda listed coy...hmmmmm, Macquarie).Follow this logic and someone is into AED for $70M and will if solvent enjoy shipping of oils for sometime to come.

Best conclusion... a Singaporean or Japanese company will take a position but (wishful thinking maybe) not at extreme duress prices. There interest is to (a) preserve cuirrent investment and (b) enjoy 12% returns on infrastructure. Certainly the company has structured it's investment to offload as an infrastructure play.

My ignorant call...if AED can secure a reasonable tolling fee then it will sacrifice some value of a now heightened oil price for longevity and not lose to much on the way through. Not dead but certainly in need of some attention.

For those also long, I feel your pain!!!


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## jimski (3 March 2008)

I am a takeover/JV virgin....Can someone please explain what happens to exisiting shares in this situation?


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## prawn_86 (3 March 2008)

Shares on issue will stay the same.

All that is happening is that someone is buying a stake in one of the companys assets. 

So theoretically the SP should drop by as much as the asset % that they now no longer own, although surplus cash would also have to be taken into consideration.

So in other words nothing is affected apart from the price


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## jimski (3 March 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Shares on issue will stay the same.
> 
> All that is happening is that someone is buying a stake in one of the companys assets.
> 
> ...




Thanks for that.  So, SP drop to reflect asset sale but presumably this can be positive for the SP in the long term if JV partner helps to solve production and other problems making the company more profitable?


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## laurie (4 March 2008)

Lets just wait and see what happens all of this speculation can lead to someone making the wrong investment decision no matter what we say here the market is always right 

cheers laurie


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## oldblue (4 March 2008)

Whatever happens now will be positive for AED. Without a partner, AED didn't have the capacity to produce profitably from Puffin and would have faced a bleak future.
I see The Australian is speculating that North American oilers either Talisman Energy or Apache may be the JV partner.


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## laurie (7 March 2008)

News just out now.

60% Sinopec

40% AED

Sinopec Operator

full story at http://www.asx.com.au

excellent news for AED to have 40% of 100% rather than 100% of 0 

cheers laurie


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## laurie (7 March 2008)

AED Oil is pleased to announce that Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and
Production Corporation (SIPC), a wholly owned subsidiary of China Petrochemical
Corporation (Sinopec) and AED propose to enter into and consummate a transaction
in respect of the acquisition by SIPC of a 60% joint venture interest in the assets held
under AC/P22, AC/L6 and AC/RL1 (which include the Puffin and Talbot fields) (the Assets).
It is the intention of the parties to seek to finalise and execute documentation as
soon as practicable, which is expected to be within two weeks.
Key highlights of the transaction will include:
The joint venture proportions will be 60% SIPC, 40% AED.
SIPC will be the operator of the joint venture.
The transaction values the Assets at approximately A$1 billion.
The effective date, for economic purposes, of commencement of the Joint
Venture will be 31 March 2008.
The transaction is subject to third party consents including Government of the
People�s Republic of China, FIRB and NT Government. SIPC has already lodged its
application for FIRB approval.
The parties also have a mutual desire to expand their respective interests in the
energy market and plan to work together in a broader association to seek other
project opportunities in the region.
AED will utilize the funds received from the transaction to retire debt, settle its
creditors and fund its joint venture interest and development opportunities.
AED�s Board believes this transaction to be in the best interests of its shareholders
with a view to maximizing future value from its Assets.
Mr Dix, Chairman of AED, stated that he is delighted to have the opportunity to work
with SIPC in the development of the Assets. Having a partner with the extensive
experience and financial resources of SIPC will achieve the strategic objectives of AED
in seeking a partner outlined in our earlier announcements.


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## Justthinkin (7 March 2008)

After what could be loosely described as a hideous day in the market, AED goes and does this. This is not just news , it's GREAT NEWS!!!

It seems to me that if the deal is valuing the assets at $1B which is about 100% greater than our dear old asx (pre debt mkt cap say $0.5B) then I see nothing but blue sky!!! I think a "yippeee" would be about right.

Debt free. 40% interest in a good lease. AED not the operator. Does it get any better?

But wait there's more... I suspect a second player may express interest early in the week. Hmmmmmmmm!

Not advice... as they say do you own research!


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## impala_group (7 March 2008)

laurie said:


> News just out now.
> 
> 60% Sinopec
> 
> ...


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## sfx (7 March 2008)

Well - I was just looking at the SINOPEC sign overlooking Victoria Harbour in HK a few days ago, and little did I know at the time...

Not too sure of how to look at this one - positive and negative sides to this. 

One thing is certain is that SINOPEC have a very agressive strategy for oil aquisitions etc. Take a look over the documentary - China vs the US - The Battle For Oil (2007). I wouldn't be surprised if SINOPEC gains more control of the assets if the forthcoming drilling is successful.

Should be interesting to see the deal in more detail. Hopefully this will be released to the market soon.


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## jimski (7 March 2008)

Does anyone know when will trading resume for AED shares?  Will the suspension continue through March 31st?


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## laurie (7 March 2008)

jimski said:


> Does anyone know when will trading resume for AED shares?  Will the suspension continue through March 31st?




Mate the report tonight said "Reinstatement To Official Quotation" so it's Monday morning and don't forget another plus *NO DILUTION*

cheers laurie


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## jimski (7 March 2008)

Thanks Laurie.  Are you going to take a wild guess at the SP close of play on Monday or is that kind of speculation not allowed here?


----------



## laurie (7 March 2008)

jimski said:


> Thanks Laurie.  Are you going to take a wild guess at the SP close of play on Monday or is that kind of speculation not allowed here?




Based on the sp when it went into a trading halt of $1.85 and if you go over the figures and since we still have 150m shares on offer the JV may add anything up to $2 per share so lets assume the market likes the deal and they should as AED will become debit free we should see a price range of between $3-$4 JMHO 

cheers laurie


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## urgalzmine (10 March 2008)

laurie said:


> Based on the sp when it went into a trading halt of $1.85 and if you go over the figures and since we still have 150m shares on offer the JV may add anything up to $2 per share so lets assume the market likes the deal and they should as AED will become debit free we should see a price range of between $3-$4 JMHO
> 
> cheers laurie




Not bad, whoever bought below $2, 10.17am and the stock is $2.30 20%+ gain 

Laurie you are my hero. I shall listen to you more often


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## qr2007 (10 March 2008)

The Chinese Comp. bought 60% assets of AED. Does it mean AED SP will drop because the value of AED is now less by 60% and its forecast will be less 60%? Even though, it is now debt free but its income or production will drop by at least 60%?

Pls help?


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## qr2007 (10 March 2008)

The AED is heading south in the afternoon? any suggestion?

I am not sure if the Chinese deal is a takeover/merger or just buy assets? It sounds like a JV which they would share profit by % of JV? i.e. AED will take only 40% of the profit? does it mean that SP will be re-valuated at 60% less before the deal???

I am currently holding AED and not sure which way to go now?

Pls help ...


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## oldblue (10 March 2008)

The AED announcement refers to a joint venture.

"AED will utilise the funds received from the transaction to retire debt, settle its creditors and fund its joint venture interest and development opportunites."

Can't help you with your decision but imo having a JV partner with the strength of Sinopec was essential for AED at this critical time.


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## qr2007 (10 March 2008)

oldblue said:


> The AED announcement refers to a joint venture.
> 
> "AED will utilise the funds received from the transaction to retire debt, settle its creditors and fund its joint venture interest and development opportunites."
> 
> Can't help you with your decision but imo having a JV partner with the strength of Sinopec was essential for AED at this critical time.



Thank you Oldblue.

I checked the news around, it keeps saying "Sinopec Group agreed to buy a majority stake in the troubled oil producer's assets (60%) for US$550 million"

It means AED's assets reduced by  that amount %60 so this will impact the SP????


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## Knobby22 (10 March 2008)

It means AED are able to go forward now. It is great news considering the situation the company was in. SP will rise tomorrow.


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## oldblue (10 March 2008)

Knobby22 said:


> It means AED are able to go forward now. It is great news considering the situation the company was in. SP will rise tomorrow.




Yes. It means that AED now have a 40% interest in a project which should produce a lot of Oil rather than 100% of a field which they didn't have the capacity to operate profitably. There was a risk that that may have amounted to 100% of nothing.


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## qr2007 (10 March 2008)

Knobby22 said:


> It means AED are able to go forward now. It is great news considering the situation the company was in. SP will rise tomorrow.




According to the news it said
"Puffin has been producing between 6,000 and 10,000 barrels a day, less than expected, AED said Jan. 10".

The ann. on 10/Jan also mentioned that it expected to produce about 20,000 barrels a day. So even if with the JV now, the full capacity can go up to 20,000 barrels a day, AED would get only 40% i.e. only 8,000/day which is less than it is getting now? will it mean the profit will be more or less than before the JV????

From my understanding, the JV is great for AED as it can get cash to solve its current problem but not sure if it can increase profit for share holders which reflected by SP????

I am trying to convince myself to hold on to AED???


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## Justthinkin (10 March 2008)

I'm long and I'm nervous also. But it doesn't matter which way I cut it, today's close at 2.28 isn't fair value!

If the transaction proceeds as per the scant releases so far, it seems to me that someone has valued the majority of assets of AED at A$1B (I keep seeing the 60% for US570M being pushed about). If we assume that these are the only assets in AED (almost true but for some maybe assets) then this compares with market valuation of AED at about A$340M plus debt & creditors of about A$300M gives a ASX market value at about A$640M...which is significantly less than A$1B. In theory then, AED should be reappraised to the tune of 1000/640 * 2.25 = 3.52. 

Another way to look at it. AED will receive $600M for 60% of the assets.In it's balance sheet it will retire debt and creditors of $300M and so have change [cash] of $300M. It has 152M shares on issue so cash alone is about $2 / share. Plus it retains entitlement to 40% of the Puffin et al assets which has got to worth more than 25 cents. This is especially true if we assume the new operator JV partner is capable. There is some logic to suggest that 8000 bopd is worth 1.80 per share... a bit of a stretch. 

Ah but there is leakage! Unsecured note holders will have their hands up. The ATO might have an interest and I'll bet Mac Bank are not too far away.

I'm looking forward to tomorrow!


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## resourceboom (10 March 2008)

Hi, I do not hold AED.
But just because Sinopec may value AED assets at $1B, does not mean the australian market will do the same. It wasn't that long ago that the market valued AED at AUD$150M. There is still plenty of work to do before the assets are in good shape, but I hope for holders sake it does, at which point the sp may rise to around $3.50... imo


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## oldblue (10 March 2008)

I don't think we can make too many assumptions.
AED end up with 40% of a JV which has been valued at $1b. We don't know for sure that Sinopec paid $600m for their 60%. We are assuming they did, but they might equally have driven a hard bargain and got it for less. The AED announcement is not clear on this. We also don't know how much of the consideration is cash. Some of it may be in an agreement to pay a disproportionate higher share of the remedial/development costs or in other ways.



What we do know, is that AED were in a bind without such a deal and that they should have a better future now than they had this time last week.
I don't think we can be more precise than that without making a number of assumptions/guesses.


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## Justthinkin (10 March 2008)

Oldblue

Agreed. Just looking for a sense of direction. Most importantly, and again I must assume competency on part of JV partner, that AED no longer responsible for delivery of project. At a minimum this is [sadly] great!


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## qr2007 (11 March 2008)

Pls read the article.
"It looks like a good deal, good enough to get them out of jail because they were really stuck between a rock and a hard place with their poor production rates and overdue debts," said Johan Hedstrom, a resource analyst at Bell Potter Securities Ltd.

"I'm sure the share price will react positively to the news but it probably won't be euphoric because AED will be a much smaller company and they won't be calling the shots anymore."

AED said it also plans to work with Sinopec to seek other project opportunities in the region.

http://www.reuters.com/article/inno...1520080307?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0


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## oldblue (11 March 2008)

Yes, but nothing in the Reuters article that we didn't already know!
We will have to wait for the necessary approvals and then a further statement from AED, hopefully spelling out prospects going forward.


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## The Piper (12 March 2008)

Well SINOPEC have just bought 60% of 100m barrels of oil at $10 per barrel. Add on extraction costs of $25 per and they have a load of cheap oil. In my view thats a good deal, and that works for AED Oil as well. 
AED Oils only sin was to spend too much  on further exploration before securing  satisfactory production output.
In two weeks time AED should have the funds to retire approx $300m debt, leaving $300m cash at hand, and have assets worth $400m ( if you want to value the oil at $10.00 per barrel) .


----------



## The Piper (12 March 2008)

qr2007 said:


> According to the news it said
> "Puffin has been producing between 6,000 and 10,000 barrels a day, less than expected, AED said Jan. 10".
> 
> The ann. on 10/Jan also mentioned that it expected to produce about 20,000 barrels a day. So even if with the JV now, the full capacity can go up to 20,000 barrels a day, AED would get only 40% i.e. only 8,000/day which is less than it is getting now? will it mean the profit will be more or less than before the JV????
> ...



OK just say the production  for AED as a joint venture partener is 8000 bpd.
AED is now cashed up with all debts paid. Their oil price is hedged at US$77per barrel for the next 6 months, extraction costs are  $25/bl leaving $52 in the bank. 8000 times $52 equals $416000.00 per day, or$151.84million per year. That is earnings per share of $1.00 net approximately assuming oil does not increase in value.
Note that the US military are budgeting on oil at $225pbl.
Dont panic.
In fact you can walk around with a big smile on your face


----------



## The Piper (12 March 2008)

Well SINOPEC have just bought 60% of 100m barrels of oil at $10 per barrel. Add on extraction costs of $25 per and they have a load of cheap oil. In my view thats a good deal, and that works for AED Oil as well. 
AED Oils only sin was to spend too much  on further exploration before securing  satisfactory production output.
In two weeks time AED should have the funds to retire approx $300m debt, leaving $300m cash at hand, and have assets worth $400m ( if you want to value the oil at $10.00 per barrel) .


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## qr2007 (12 March 2008)

The SP in the last few days since it re-open till now does not give share holders positive impression at all. Its going south everyday. Particularly, today is a strong market day with most stocks heading north but AED ????

I am still holding it but day by day, it makes me nervous????

Goodluck all.


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## oldblue (13 March 2008)

My reading of AED announcement today is that they will receive AUD600m from Sinopec, when final approval of deal is made. They will then have to spend USD154 to retire bank debt and approximately USD70 to settle outstanding creditors. The balance will be available to " fund joint venture development" and other expenses going forward. 
Sounds like good news.
By the way AED made a small maiden net profit in the half year to 31Dec 2007.


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## phoenix_gr (16 March 2008)

oldblue said:


> My reading of AED announcement today is that they will receive AUD600m from Sinopec, *when *final approval of deal is made.




*if* final approval is of deal is made, probably will be made, it looks pretty simple, deal and company survives, no deal and going concern becomes a real concern to many investors.


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## oldblue (16 March 2008)

phoenix_gr said:


> *if* final approval is of deal is made, probably will be made, it looks pretty simple, deal and company survives, no deal and going concern becomes a real concern to many investors.




Quite so.
I don't see that anything has changed since the announcement of the proposed JV, except possibly that the POO has strengthened even more. We can expect a down day marketwise tomorrow so I might have a little nibble in expectation of confirmation of the deal by the weekend, or shortly thereafter.


----------



## BERNARD99 (17 March 2008)

I have been watching AED for about 18 months and only recently bought (at $1.94 - AFTER it went al the way down to bargain basement....)   

I want to buy some more as I believe we can't go wrong with this one.  The world is using 1,000 barrels of oil PER SECOND - so AED's current production will only last 6 seconds of world consumption.  My point being "Oil will always be in high demand".

My question is WHEN is the right time to buy?


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## qr2007 (17 March 2008)

Yes, Oil is always on demand but would AED worth that much per share? if you do some research and look at the P/E ratio for AED, it is about 128 while the sector is 22.74 and all ord. is 12.36.

The below is From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

_The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of a stock (also called its "earnings multiple", or simply "multiple", "P/E", or "PE") is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual income or profit earned by the firm per share.[2] A higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of income. It is a valuation ratio included in other financial ratios. The reciprocal of the P/E ratio is known as the earnings yield.[3]

The price per share (numerator) is the market price of a single share of the stock. The earnings per share (denominator) is the net income of the company for the most recent 12 month period, divided by number of shares outstanding. The earnings per share (EPS) used can also be the "diluted EPS" or the "comprehensive EPS". The P/E ratio can also be calculated by dividing the company's market capitalization by its total annual earnings.

For example, if stock A is trading at $24 and the earnings per share for the most recent 12 month period is $3, then stock A has a P/E ratio of 24/3 or 8. Put another way, the purchaser of stock A is paying $8 for every dollar of earnings. Companies with losses (negative earnings) or no profit have an undefined P/E ratio (usually shown as Not applicable or "N/A"); sometimes, however, a negative P/E ratio may be shown.

By comparing price and earnings per share for a company, one can analyze the market's stock valuation of a company and its shares relative to the income the company is actually generating.[citation needed] Investors can use the P/E ratio to compare the value of stocks: if one stock has a P/E twice that of another stock, all things being equal (especially the earnings growth rate), it is a less attractive investment. Companies are rarely equal, however, and comparisons between industries, companies, and time periods may be misleading._


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## oldblue (17 March 2008)

I thought better of it and didn't buy today.

Still interested but will wait for either the price to stabilise or confirmation of the deal. Will have to be quick on my feet!


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## BERNARD99 (17 March 2008)

qr2007 said:


> Yes, Oil is always on demand but would AED worth that much per share? if you do some research and look at the P/E ratio for AED, it is about 128 while the sector is 22.74 and all ord. is 12.36.
> 
> The below is From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> ...




Thanks for the info re P/E,  I am relatively new to shares and still have that "invincible" attitude which will no doubt cost me big money when my luck runs out - but......

I am not sure if P/E comes into play yet as they have just started producing oil.  

I believe that in the short term the share price will drop as I suspect that some "hidden costs" will emerge (maybe when they hedged the oil at $70, they hedged a certain volume which they cannot produce and have to buy the shortfall on the open market at $110 per barrel).  

Having said that, I believe that the long term future of the share is very positive IF they have the large reserves they claim to have.  The other reason for my bullishness is that the Chinese are a very patient race and do not just throw their money away either - they have the man-power to study all the facts and would not have paid $600 million for something that is not going to make a profit !!

So, the "Bernard Recommendation" is to buy in the dips and hang onto the share for a few years - it might just pay enough dividends to fill up your tank irrespective of the  price of oil.


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## cordelia (20 March 2008)

does anyone what happened to the price this afternoon? Trading halted and the price gapped down to 1.62 when it opened again


----------



## blues (20 March 2008)

Dropped from $1.85 to $1.62 in the closing auction for some reason. Hope someone doesnt know something we dont.

Cheers


----------



## jackson8 (20 March 2008)

blues said:


> Dropped from $1.85 to $1.62 in the closing auction for some reason. Hope someone doesnt know something we dont.
> 
> Cheers




article on reuters concerning sinopec and drop in share price due to some issues . best read yourself may have something to do with price drop

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSHKG32386020080320


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## Kat82 (29 March 2008)

The Piper said:


> OK just say the production  for AED as a joint venture partener is 8000 bpd.
> AED is now cashed up with all debts paid. Their oil price is hedged at US$77per barrel for the next 6 months, extraction costs are  $25/bl leaving $52 in the bank. 8000 times $52 equals $416000.00 per day, or$151.84million per year. That is earnings per share of $1.00 net approximately assuming oil does not increase in value.
> Note that the US military are budgeting on oil at $225pbl.
> Dont panic.
> In fact you can walk around with a big smile on your face




Hi, it appears that AED needs to pay 40% tax (PRRT).  It will knock off 40 cents per share from your estimate.


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## jonojpsg (1 April 2008)

I can't see why this is not sailing back into the blue??  With the deal signed off, and a net cash position post deal of $350m, why are they still only sitting around this MC??

Surely the SP will have to move to reflect the oil that is flowing


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## oldblue (1 April 2008)

Still a few regulatory approvals needed before the deal is done and dusted.
Market in its present mood wants to see all the i's dotted and the t's crossed.


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## jimski (18 April 2008)

I have been away for two weeks - can anyone update me as to where AED stands now?  Has the Chinese deal been completed or are we in a SP limbo waiting for it to be inked?  Is anyone excited about AED anymore??  Very little action on this board....


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## oldblue (18 April 2008)

Hi jimski

You know as much as anyone!

No company announcements since 31 March. Anything else is pure speculation.


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## blues (18 April 2008)

I had an email response from David Dix learly April. He said everything is going along well and there are no oustanding matters but that it is just a question of procedure and getting things right. He did say that things take a little longer when you are dealing with a company owned 75% owned by the PRC. Planning and budgets for work on Puffin have been done and will be released after all relevant approvals have been granted.

Cheers


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## AED Blunder (20 April 2008)

I am referring to the last post _He did say that things take a little longer when you are dealing with a company owned 75% owned by the PRC_ I find it so difficult to believe how thick the collective hides of these 'managers' are. Having lost in excess of $330,000 with my investment in AED, I have written to Mr. Dix and his colleagues on many many occasions. Be it in the form of letters or Faxes, all of these approaches and pleas for a detailed explanation for the sharp decline (crash) of AED's share price remain unanswered. I also asked for an Email address, as none is listed on their 'amazing' website. In the middle of February I lodged a complaint with ASIC, which still remains unanswered. I acknowledge that there are a lot of other ASX listed and unlisted Australian run companies that have gone bankrupt in recent months, but I have never been personally involved. These people have taken me completely by surprise. As far as I know, all AED board members have been retained, even though each of these individuals have proven to be completely incompetent. Now they are complaining about the way a Chinese run company is conducting its business? They should just be extremely grateful that they have almost been bought out.


----------



## AED Blunder (21 April 2008)

Here there are in their full glory...... Say hello to them if you happen to see them somewhere on a golf course or a Mercedes Benz dealership.


----------



## dale (13 May 2008)

hey guys,

anybody heard something on the wires recently? this thread seems to have stagnated as well as the sp!

cheers
dale
(holding)


----------



## blues (13 May 2008)

I had an email reply from the company yesterday which said "As you most likely read in the last quarterly report completion matters for the SIPC/AED JV is progressing well.  We expect matters to be completed in the next couple of weeks.  Once the transaction is completed we will be progressing towards not only rectification issues but also the further development of the Puffin fields.  As per our previous ASX releases The SIPC/AED joint venture provides the Company with considerable capacity (both operationally and financially) to undertake further development.  We will release further information on this in due course."

Cheers


----------



## laurie (13 May 2008)

Yeh nice reply but do you believe what they say... they don't let shareholders know what's going on 

cheers laurie


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## AED Blunder (14 May 2008)

These people should not have listed on the ANY stock exchange, neither here in Australia or anywhere else in the world. They are running this 'business' like a groceries corner store and obviously haven't got a clue on how to proceed from here. They are desperately awaiting the arrival of these chinese experts to move in and to sort things out. Ex-employees from major resource companies, I can just imagine them receiving their marching orders and then forming the 'All Engrossing Disaster Oil' company. With the oil price shooting higher and higher every day, other energy provider are benefitting from the associated bottom line. Not so AED and who can blame the investment community having lost interest. As I have previously expressed, I am in awe assuming that none of these senior people have lost their jobs due to this disasterous mismanagement. I would love for Sinopec to buy them out completely, so the various directors can accept their golden handshakes and move on to lecturing positions at an Australian tertiary education institution near you. There really is no merit to use the incoming funds to explore more territory in the Puffin field, if they don't have the appropriate drilling and pumping expertise. Which brings me back to the groceries store comparison. If they can't find professorships at universities, why not try promoting already bottled olive and/or other vegetable oils in the aisles of Coles or Woolworth. Just don't turn up wearing a baseball cap..... As you may have detected, having lost in excess of $300K with these jokers and with them not responding to reasonble please for return correspondence, I don't have much respect and time for them AT ALL.


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## laurie (14 May 2008)

AED Blunder

Been down your road gave Trevor Slater a blasting one day on the phone and told him he was lucky he lives in Melbourne otherwise I would have made a one man protest outside their office for their lack of respect for shareholders god help me if I ever see one of those people in the above picture in the same street as me they nearly cost me my entire savings  in comparison the MD that's running QGC is an example how to run a company because he has respect from shareholders.

cheers laurie


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## AED Blunder (14 May 2008)

Thanks for your contribution, Laurie. It is good to hear that I am not the only one feeling so angry about these people. Their arrogance is just amazing and I never feel bad when the odd character heads off to prison for a few years, as has happened here in Sydney on a few occasions. You and I would have lost our day/night time jobs if we would have performed even just remotely the way they have. You could excuse the odd profit downgrade due to unforeseable developments, but these people have always worked in a bubble. I saw the AED CEO on a Business Sunday program with a prominent finance journalist one day. He was so cocky about his company and the fact based potential. It was only weeks after that when the share price started his downward journey and that the true situation emerged. I have asked Mr. K. if he would mind inviting this CEO again for a follow-up interview, but with the other interests that this 'journalist' holds, he might just have his own agenda (without being able to prove anything). Anyway, what is done is done and I can only hope that I can recoup just a small part of my life savings when Sinopec takes over the general management to leave this bunch to hang out on the various Melbourne golf courses. I would not even task them to update their uninspiring website, something that is long overdue. Once Sinopec takes over, you might even see an Email address added to the site.


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## Morgan (15 May 2008)

No announcements out but looks like someone must know something.......
Course of sales for yesterday shows plenty of decisive bites right from the open with the SP closing on a high up 18% for the day.


----------



## chc4me (15 May 2008)

Does anybody have any idea why the share price jumped 17% yesterday? There doesn't appear to be any new news .......
Thanks,


----------



## Morgan (15 May 2008)

Hmmmmm.. up another 16% today and still no official news.
Surely a speeding ticket must be on its way- this does not look like a 'fully informed' market.....


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## Go Nuke (15 May 2008)

Indeed its good to see AED slowly climbing back some massive losses that people are holding (myself includled though not massive)

People here are right. The price of oil has skyrocketed and the sp of AED has gone nowhere!!!
They are missing the boat.

Lucky Sino has possibly saved their bacon.
Actually whens the next AED AGM?
Cant wait to get some paperwork asking for us to accept the directors wanting options etc..LMAO.

Might be a few "against" on that one.

If Sino have any sence it will be...utthedoor: for these guys!


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## dj_420 (15 May 2008)

Morgan said:


> No announcements out but looks like someone must know something.......
> Course of sales for yesterday shows plenty of decisive bites right from the open with the SP closing on a high up 18% for the day.




Yeah I got on from the open this morning, too much action in AED area for there not to be good news IMO. AED has hardly moved at all and a 20% run yesterday will be small IMO when the production problems are sorted and we see the debt issues resolved.

That made the decision for me to get back on board easy. Just like INP.


----------



## laurie (15 May 2008)

Someone on the Puffin must have their mobile phone on all of the time or there is a serious oil leak of course the speeding ticket issued is as useless as t1ts on a bull has any company admitted we have leaked information!!  interesting to see what news we get in the next few days!

cheers laurie


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## laurie (15 May 2008)

deleted


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## laurie (15 May 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Indeed its good to see AED slowly climbing back some massive losses that people are holding (myself includled though not massive)
> 
> People here are right. The price of oil has skyrocketed and the sp of AED has gone nowhere!!!
> They are missing the boat.
> ...




I stand to be corrected on this but any vote against the board by shareholders may have no effect at all they may say "We note your concerns" in others words stiff sh**

cheers laurie


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## jimski (15 May 2008)

*Re: AED - AED Oil - Reuters*

Here is some news - nothing that really tells us anything but increase in activity and SP might make Blunder a little more cheerful....



AED Oil: knows of no reason for share price surge
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian oil producer AED Ltd a takeover target of China's Sinopec Group, said on Thursday it was not aware of any reason for a surge in its share price in the past two days.

It made the comments in response to a query by the Australian stock exchange after its shares jumped 17.5 percent to A$3.16 on Thursday, adding to a near 18 percent leap in the previous session.

Sinopec's Hong Kong-listed unit Sinopec Corp agreed in March to buy a majority stake in assets of AED for A$600 million ($556 million), marking China's first oil acquisition in resource-rich Australia. An AED spokesman said earlier on Thursday there was speculation that the Chinese government may soon approve the A$600 million ($560 million) takeover of AED by state-controlled Sinopec Group.

The Australian government's foreign investment review body has already approved the Sinopec deal.

AED became a favorite of investors last year when it said it was likely to have up to 100 million barrels of recoverable oil at its Puffin and Talbot fields off northwest Australia, up sharply from an earlier estimate of 40 million barrels.

But its stock has plunged from a record A$11.40 in October as technical problems slashed output from Puffin North East to just 6,000-10,000 barrels per day (bpd), well short of its initial forecast of 30,000 bpd.

The stock took a further hit in February after Norwegian oil services firm AGR Group said AED was overdue in paying an AGR subsidiary about A$41.5 million.


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## benwex (16 May 2008)

Does anyone have any confidnence that AED through the newly employed resevior consultance can increase the production rate at Puffin to the forecast 20,000bod??

Or is this a pipe dream??

benwex


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## laurie (16 May 2008)

Answer the question why would Sinopec jump on AED? then you would also answer you own question 

cheers laurie


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## GREENS (16 May 2008)

Guys I wouldn’t necessarily see Sinopec’s acquisition of AED as necessarily a profitable one. The acquisition of AED *may* be a favourable way for Sinopec to position its way into the Australian oil industry and possibly purchase further Australian or Timor Sea/NW shelf assets and exploration acreage. In other words buy mopping up and helping out an Australian oil company, the government may be more leant towards them in regards to acquiring other Australian oil and gas assets, plus when tendering for new exploration permits. AED producing >20,000BOPD, while I won’t write it off in the future, I don’t think you should be working on those kind of figures when considering your  investment in AED. You have to understand that management is dodgy as all hell and the 100MMBOE figure they previously stated could be way off the mark in terms of its recoverable reserves. Again as I have noted time and time before trying to understand the fundamentals of this company is a joke, management is shocking and hence why I will stay well away.


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## dj_420 (16 May 2008)

It just depends which way you look at it, if the JV goes through AED after debts and expenses will have 350 million cash balance. This will represent around 2.27 cash backing per share. 

If they can secure flow rates between 15-20 000 per day then net to AED at 40% will be 6 - 8 000 barrels per day. This will be very positive for the company.

I think that AED should have gone in a JV to the field development originally in case something like this occured. As it was they now have to work from the ground up instead of the other way around.

SIPC will then take over operations of the field, which from past successes or failures would be a good thing! Maybe AED tried to grow to far to fast and were extremely leveraged going into the production last year, which killed them when flow rates fell.


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## The Piper (19 May 2008)

I hope that the Chinese (SIPC) new what they were buying when they coughed up $600M for 60% of AED's Oil reserves. Yes the oil is still under the Timor Sea but at the price of $10 pbbl......
And has anyone noted that SIPC has just been granted exploration rights for area NT/P76 of the Bonaparte Basin, guaranteeing an initial work program of$36.65M and a secondary program including a new well costing $38.5M .... and AED as a 40% JV partener will be along for the ride.
So AED Oil have a cash position of $350M,  or 2.27 per share.
They have 40mmb oip  valued at $10 pbbl, or 2.59 per share. And an  unknown income , but lets say 2000 bpd, or $0.67  per share. 
Now if things improve and the Oil in place is valued above $10pbbl... or the extraction rate increases above 2000 bpd.......
The rest of the share price movement was simply emotion... thats the nature of the market.
The Chinese know a good deal when they see one. Notice how they paid a good deal more than the going share price on the day.


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## Go Nuke (22 May 2008)

Nice breakout from an asending triangle.....and I guess you would think so with the price of oil where it is

Another small pennant formed over the last few days finishing off with a doji before what looks like another good run today

Cross over of averages around the 13th of May looked good with the 20 Day crossing the 50Day MA.

The share price is so far sitting above the 100 day MA.

Hopefully with some announcements regarding the Sino deal and if oil holds these highs, the sp will contineu on it merry way.

Any ideas when we might hear some news on how Puffin is going?


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## jimski (28 May 2008)

I have been away so perhaps missed news - can someone tell me when this Sino deal is supposed to be wrapped?


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## oldblue (28 May 2008)

jimski said:


> I have been away so perhaps missed news - can someone tell me when this Sino deal is supposed to be wrapped?




Patience required.
You havn't missed anything! The ball is in the Chinese court at present. The Chinese Govt court, probably.


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## michael_selway (28 May 2008)

oldblue said:


> Patience required.
> You havn't missed anything! The ball is in the Chinese court at present. The Chinese Govt court, probably.




Hm thsi one is worth keepign an eye on

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 -6.9 75.1 121.9 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## benwex (28 May 2008)

i think the sp softness is from end of tax year selling....

some people have taken sone serious losses from the highs and any sp strength is sold into.

AED long term has some great upside IMO.


benwex


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## jimski (10 June 2008)

Patience required I'm sure but this is becoming an interminably boring wait.... 
Is anyone else surprised at the company's silence?  No update at all for a considerable period.


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## oldblue (11 June 2008)

jimski said:


> Patience required I'm sure but this is becoming an interminably boring wait....
> Is anyone else surprised at the company's silence?  No update at all for a considerable period.




I think we need to accept that the company doesn't have any control over the speed of developments, therefore nothing to report. Let's also not forget that this company was in a very precarious position before Sinopec bought in. The asset remains but AED may not have!


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## kingbrown (11 June 2008)

benwex said:


> i think the sp softness is from end of tax year selling....
> 
> some people have taken sone serious losses from the highs and any sp strength is sold into.
> 
> ...




You guys in here have got to be joking ??  

I have held this stock before and trust me imo its a DOG !
Put your money to better use in a properly run company

Take whats left of your money and run a mile !!! 

Ps i do not own AED shares anymore and never will again


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## Go Nuke (11 June 2008)

Yeah c'mon AED ya dog!!!c:

I cant believe where the price of oil is and we have heard nothing!!

After buying a very small parcel in the $8 range, i have peanuts to lose buy selling out now.
In fact not even enough to buy the minimum amount required by Commsec EVEN if I did want to invest it somewhere else.

Ive just resigned to forgetting about AED other than the odd glance at the sp.

Really poorly managed though considering they aren't even keeping their shareholders up to date with....well..whatever is going on:disgust:

ps..as AED Blunder pointed out...no F&$@(%N email address even on their website...which is just fantastic!
Does anyone have it so I can send an email off please?
Thx 
GN


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## jimski (11 June 2008)

I haven't held a stock that has been bought out before so I am uncertain of what to expect.  Is there anything to suggest that the Sinopec deal will actually increase the SP?  I bought in under $2 and sold well on the way down from the top but now wonder whether to just jack it in and sell what I have left.  If the Sinopec deal is only good for Sinopec and unlikely to increase value of AED then I can't see the point of staying in this one.  Any opinions?


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## trendster (18 June 2008)

in trading halt this morning, we all hope there's something good to capitalise on the strong oil prices.

when was the last time these actually sold some oil? dec 07?


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## benwex (18 June 2008)

trendster said:


> in trading halt this morning, we all hope there's something good to capitalise on the strong oil prices.
> 
> when was the last time these actually sold some oil? dec 07?




the trading halt is in relation  to the deal with SIPC

"AED Oil Limited requests a trading halt of its securities pending the announcement of the"completion of the previously announced transaction with SIPC. "

The company management are still as useless as ever, never take or return calls to little retail shareholders......wankers!

Hope SIPC puts in a t/o bid for 100% and gives them all the boot.....

benwex


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## laurie (18 June 2008)

benwex said:


> the trading halt is in relation  to the deal with SIPC
> 
> "AED Oil Limited requests a trading halt of its securities pending the announcement of the"completion of the previously announced transaction with SIPC. "
> 
> ...




Absolutely right benwex I still cannot see why a trading halt is required to announce completion so what other sinister reason is there to ask a trading halt...... oil flows,fpso,off-take see could be anything with this mob

cheers laurie


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## benwex (18 June 2008)

laurie said:


> Absolutely right benwex I still cannot see why a trading halt is required to announce completion so what other sinister reason is there to ask a trading halt...... oil flows,fpso,off-take see could be anything with this mob
> 
> cheers laurie




announcement out with confirmation of the deal completion...

bull**** bull****....


match price up, at 2.91 which is nice..

why dont they tell us about the independant experts reports on Puffin and its potential to increase the current below forecast output??

benwex


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## jonojpsg (18 June 2008)

Yeeeeehaaaaaaa

Finally the money is in the bank - $350m is about $2.50 per share cash backing, with whatever oil is actually flowing on top of that.  If SINO gets the flows up to what they should be,which is obviously the BIG question - then we might see the SP head back up towards previous levels.  

I would have though that in the interim before updated flows are released - based on 6000bopd the SP should be of the order of 

2400bopd to AED x $50/barrel net of costs (conservative) to AED = $120k per day x 365 = $44m profit / 140m shares = 30c earnings

At conservative PE of 5, say $1.50, plus cash of $2.50 gives target of $4.

Obviously some uncertainty with all that, but looks positive IMO.


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## laurie (18 June 2008)

jonojpsg

Well I think the market don't trust management it's back down to $2.95 when in the hell was the last off-take,when is the next one!! there is just a lack of information that brings mistrust with shonky MD who forgets he sold shares because off-takes tells the truth of what is being pumped out and they don't want us to know that for now 

cheers laurie


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## blues (18 June 2008)

I believe it will drift around until a development plan for Puffin is seen. I do believe plans have been agreed to but until they are announced with timeframes this might be a volatile ride.

Cheers


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## michael_selway (18 June 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> Yeeeeehaaaaaaa
> 
> Finally the money is in the bank - $350m is about $2.50 per share cash backing, with whatever oil is actually flowing on top of that.  If SINO gets the flows up to what they should be,which is obviously the BIG question - then we might see the SP head back up towards previous levels.
> 
> ...




I wonder what they will do with the cash, they can earn money from it also!

btw whats the current mine life at 2400bopd 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 -6.9 69.9 118.4 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## benwex (19 June 2008)

michael_selway said:


> I wonder what they will do with the cash, they can earn money from it also!
> 
> btw whats the current mine life at 2400bopd
> 
> ...




with $350 MILLION in cash now you would think the managment would be giving the market an indication to how this huge sum will be deployed???

seriously stupid management and when they do take my call i wont be shy telling them...

Think of all the fantastic notes they could put to the market...

benwex


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## blues (19 June 2008)

I agree! I too have left a message for management and sent them an email. They finally have some good news so you would think a plan of what they are going to do with the money would be helpful. When they went into a TH I thought they would come out saying the deal is done and this is our forward plan. Will let you know if I get a reply.

Cheers.


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## laurie (19 June 2008)

Don't hold your breath I feel really sorry for the girl's answering the phone and taking messages lets see.....$350m @9% interest thats $31m p.a that's worth at least .20c paid back as a dividend or they can spend a night at Crown Casino and double their money Packer did 

cheers laurie


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## greenfs (19 June 2008)

blues said:


> I agree! I too have left a message for management and sent them an email. They finally have some good news so you would think a plan of what they are going to do with the money would be helpful. When they went into a TH I thought they would come out saying the deal is done and this is our forward plan. Will let you know if I get a reply.
> 
> Cheers.




It seems obvious to me that the cash reseves will be deployed to fix the oil flow problem in the existing well and then for ongoing cap-ex related to the ongoing exploration of existing territories with a view to building another substantial producing well. It is importart to ensure that the J/V stays just that. Otherwise, the senoir partner will put more in resulting in a further dilution of AED's interest in the resources.


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## AED Blunder (20 June 2008)

Courts in the USA and now here in Australia have started to prosecute CEO's and financial managers. I personally believe that AED also has a few questions to answer and I have lodged an official complaint with ASICS some time ago. Still waiting for a reply I won't hold my breath, but if you feel equally strong about the 'management style' of this company, keep up the pressure and don't let these people slip away behind the Sinopec mask. Not publishing an Email address and paying a receptionist to block off unwanted enquiries must not be a deterrent to keep up the pressure. I am looking forward to following a few more upcoming criminal trials and I hope that the resulting sentences will be perceived as harshly by these individuals as the financial losses that the investors had to bear in believing these 'trustees'.


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## laurie (20 June 2008)

mate you at least have done what I did BUT they are bigger than you and I just look at Allan Bond goes to jail comes out richer look at Mr Addler goes to jail comes out richer 

cheers laurie


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## AED Blunder (24 June 2008)

Hello 'blues', perhaps you could share AED's Email address with everyone in this forum. That way we could all join in and collectively congratulate the management team on their stellar performance. I have just looked over the credentials of each board member again, as published on AED's website. Take a look yourself, interesting reading. I have also just realised the negative gains of around about $340,000 that I made with AED, in preparation for my upcoming tax return. A great feeling and thanks again to Mr. Tregonning and his cronies. Well done!


----------



## prawn_86 (24 June 2008)

AED Blunder said:


> I have also just realised the negative gains of around about $340,000 that I made with AED, in preparation for my upcoming tax return. A great feeling and thanks again to Mr. Tregonning and his cronies. Well done!




So what amount of that loss do you contribute to being your own fault by not making correct decisons? Surely you cannot place all the blame at the directors feet, you know (or should know) the risk of shares

Also, if your portfolio is relatively diversified then the loss, although never good, should not be of too significant impact to you.


----------



## michael_selway (24 June 2008)

AED Blunder said:


> Hello 'blues', perhaps you could share AED's Email address with everyone in this forum. That way we could all join in and collectively congratulate the management team on their stellar performance. I have just looked over the credentials of each board member again, as published on AED's website. Take a look yourself, interesting reading. I have also just realised the negative gains of around about $340,000 that I made with AED, in preparation for my upcoming tax return. A great feeling and thanks again to Mr. Tregonning and his cronies. Well done!




Wow you have that much spare capital to invest with?!!

Your loss is bigger than my whole portfolio numerically....

thx

MS


----------



## prawn_86 (24 June 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Wow you have that much spare capital to invest with?!!
> 
> Your loss is bigger than my whole portfolio numerically....
> 
> ...




Yeh, his loss is about 50 times bigger than my entire portfolio! 

Perhaps he should of given it to us hey MS instead of AED


----------



## AED Blunder (24 June 2008)

Thanks for your advice and for your insights into your own investment portfolios (mine is so much smaller than yours, why not share it). And yes, I am aware of the risks that are involved with share trading activities (thanks for that as well). However, if you go back in this particular thread you will learn that AED has made several misleading statements on which I based my own investment decisions. Although this loss is a major one in my books, I have been fortunate with companies that delivered on their promises. None of them run by Australian Management teams I might add. Another lesson learned.


----------



## oldblue (25 June 2008)

At least one commentator is taking an optimistic view.
This from The Australian's "Criterion" column.

AED Oil (AED) $2.25 

FORGET about Fuel Watch schemes and petrol commissioners. Why not beat the bowser blues and acquire an interest in a 20,000 barrel-a-day (BOPD) producer for nothing? 

That's what's on offer at AED, which has been sadly out of favour since revealing in January that its Puffin offshore field in the Timor Sea hasn't been puffin' so well after all. 

The ensuing crisis of confidence led AED to do a farm-down deal with the Chinese oil major Sinopec, which last week handed over $590 million for a 60 per cent stake in AED's Puffin and Talbot projects. 

After paying out bank debt of $162 million and $73 million of trade creditors, AED will be left with $350 million in cash, which neatly equates to last night's market cap of $347.69 million. 

Of course everything's priced for a reason, the market being efficient and all that. AED's big challenge is to overcome problems at its Puffin 7 well. 

AED reported March-quarter production of 4300 BOPD from Puffin, well off the targeted 20,000 BOPD. We had AED as an avoid at $2.21 on March 11, but there's now 590 million reasons to change to a speculative buy.


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## Go Nuke (25 June 2008)

YAY!!!!artyman:
Finaly the company decides to let us all know  WTF is going on with an announcement!!

Sounds good. Good to hear the Chinese want to ramp up production issues...and so they should with oil at stupid record prices!

We might start to see some confidence come back to AED if they can sort out these issues an ann some extra drilling as they have said will occur in the second half of 08.

And here i was thinking of selling for a pretty heft loss.

I have faith in the Chinese to get things going. After all its in their countries best interests these days


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## laurie (25 June 2008)

Nice to see someone happy while any news is good news especially for AED there is still no news of any off-take oil to Singapore unless I missed the announcement  

cheers laurie


----------



## oldblue (26 June 2008)

laurie said:


> Nice to see someone happy while any news is good news especially for AED there is still no news of any off-take oil to Singapore unless I missed the announcement
> 
> cheers laurie





I'm not sure of the significance of "Singapore" but the announcement included

"Production and offtakes have been occurring during the jv completion process as normal."  and  

"Puffin crude is presently sold via an FOB arrangement with Total."


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## benwex (9 July 2008)

Hows anyone been watching this one in recent days???

there is continual selling pressure which surprises me post end of tax year selling..

I dont normally buy into the accumulation argument but I may be seeing it right in from of me eyes.....

Are people getting flushed out while someone is buying big cheap??

AED's fundamentals have not changed in my opinion and watching CNBC lastnight discussing global energy shortages Boon Pickens (oil legend) says the chinese will pay anything for oil more than market value to secure supply....

AED is in my view a Take Over target waiting to happen.

because:
1) 2P reserves have not changed for Puffin, just the below forecast extraction
2) proximity to China
3) heavily oversold for the last 6-12 months

benwex


----------



## jimski (10 July 2008)

benwex said:


> Hows anyone been watching this one in recent days???
> 
> there is continual selling pressure which surprises me post end of tax year selling..
> 
> ...






Yes I am watching it and just wondering where that steady pressure originates.  You may well be right re accumulation argument...  

What do you mean by AED being a takeover target?  Excuse my ignorance but I thought the recent AED/Chinese JV would have now precluded any takeover??  Do you mean that AED itself might be taken over with any new ownership still remaining in JV arrangement with Sinopec?  I know this is all speculation but I am interested to know what you are driving at.


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## benwex (10 July 2008)

jimski said:


> Yes I am watching it and just wondering where that steady pressure originates.  You may well be right re accumulation argument...
> 
> What do you mean by AED being a takeover target?  Excuse my ignorance but I thought the recent AED/Chinese JV would have now precluded any takeover??  Do you mean that AED itself might be taken over with any new ownership still remaining in JV arrangement with Sinopec?  I know this is all speculation but I am interested to know what you are driving at.




My view is that Sinopec were always interested in AED as a whole and the deal struck was the first stage of the plan....

The reality is AED has to date been unable to extract the value from the Puffin project cause of mamagement incompetency and lack of technical experience. Sinopec have deep pockets and vast technical expertise which hopefully will come to for shortly..

Sinopec have set up an office in Melbourne just recently and its my view they will loose patience soon with their Aussie JV partners..

The share price is at such a discount that an opportunistic unconditional offer for the outstanding shares maybe welcomed by shareholders even with out the boards support..

The institutional holders may be already in their ears..... they can buy my shares for $3.50 today!

But yes this is just speculation.

benwex


----------



## oldblue (10 July 2008)

It's clear that Sinopec are effectively running the Puffin show now. With 60% of the action it's doubtful whether they would want to take on the political issues that a takeover of AED would entail to obtain the other 40%, unless of course there are other AED assets that appeal.


----------



## oldblue (30 July 2008)

Let's hope that today's announcement of a 22cps div is the start of better things to come!

Disc: Not holding AED but seriously interested via NWE's ORR in Puffin.


----------



## oldblue (30 July 2008)

oldblue said:


> Let's hope that today's announcement of a 22cps div is the start of better things to come!
> 
> Disc: Not holding AED but seriously interested via NWE's ORR in Puffin.




Correction:
That dividend amount should read 20cps.
Still a good sign!
Quarterly report is worth reading.


----------



## Go Nuke (30 July 2008)

Gee whatever your talking about it sounds ok. LOL.

Ive removed AED from my watchlist and have given up even looking at it really...so wasn't aware of any news.

As a shareholder I guess I should find out more info on this ann


----------



## GREENS (30 July 2008)

Nuke, 

Why the report definitely shows a company with promise, It’s nothing different from there previous announcements promising good things. Probably best not to get your hopes up too much with this one, although that div looks like a bit of relief for you shareholders who have taken a battering. 

Also I noticed that some of the AED operations team have joined Sinopec. I would have thought that Sinopec would have stayed well away from the AED team and not taken them on board given their previous poor management of the field, although I did only gloss over the report I may have miss interpreted that. But for all you holders may be worth a check. 

I’m still staying well away from this one, but good luck to all those still holding, hope it turns around for you.


----------



## michael_selway (30 July 2008)

GREENS said:


> Nuke,
> 
> Why the report definitely shows a company with promise, It’s nothing different from there previous announcements promising good things. Probably best not to get your hopes up too much with this one, although that div looks like a bit of relief for you shareholders who have taken a battering.
> 
> ...





Hey not bad only $30 mil out of the $600 mil they got for the sale ($350m net of debt)! What a teaser!

ASX Announcement 30 July 2008




> Declaration of a Special Dividend AED Oil Limited (“AED”) is pleased to announce it has declared a fully franked dividend of 20 cents per share (approximately A$31 million). The dividend payment represents part of the strategic and capital management review undertaken as part of the sale of 60% of AED’s assets to Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation (SIPC), giving rise to cash proceeds previously reported. The Directors of AED have decided that all shareholders should directly benefit from the successfully completed sale of asset transaction. Shareholders are referred to the June 2008 quarterly report for further details. The dividend will be paid on 5 September 2008 to shareholders registered at the close of business on 22 August 2008, exdividend
> date will be 18 August 2008.


----------



## laurie (30 July 2008)

laurie said:


> Don't hold your breath I feel really sorry for the girl's answering the phone and taking messages lets see.....$350m @9% interest thats $31m p.a that's worth at least .20c paid back as a dividend or they can spend a night at Crown Casino and double their money Packer did
> 
> cheers laurie




hmmmm got that one right so there is at least 155 million on issue                                                          

cheers laurie


----------



## jimski (5 August 2008)

MELBOURNE, Aug. 4 -- AED Oil Ltd.'s Puffin oil field in the Timor Sea has produced 1.6 million bbl of oil and $67 million (Aus.) in revenue during the 2007-08 financial year. 

The company plans to begin a drilling program in August to enhance production further. 

The Wilcraft jack up rig will drill Puffin-11 exploration and appraisal well in Southwest Puffin and Puffin-12 development well in Northeast Puffin. 

Puffin-11 will be a deviated pilot hole for an initial evaluation of the reservoir and, if successful, it will be followed by a short lateral section across the crest of the structure. The idea is to deviate the well south of the bounding fault system to a location updip of Puffin-9, which has proven oil columns in two reservoir sands (LK1a and UK1a). 

Puffin-12 has a primary objective to drill and complete a 200 m thickness of reservoir in the LK1a sand at that location. It will then be tied back to the existing manifold at Puffin-7 and Puffin-8 and thence to the Front Puffin floating production, storage, and offloading vessel via the existing subsea system. 

The drilling program is expected to take 100 days and cost $108 million (Aus.). 

AED holds 40% of the project, and Chinese company Sinopec has 60%.


----------



## jimski (2 September 2008)

Hellllooooo! Is there anybody there or am I the very last person with any interest whatsoever in this stock.  I am a die hard optimist much to my bank manager's dismay but even I am losing interest in this.  Is there any hope on the horizon?


----------



## Aargh! (2 September 2008)

jimski said:


> Hellllooooo! Is there anybody there or am I the very last person with any interest whatsoever in this stock.  I am a die hard optimist much to my bank manager's dismay but even I am losing interest in this.  Is there any hope on the horizon?




Hope could be:

1. Sinopec increase flow rates substantially.

2. Exploration success.

I am cynical if either of these happen in the near term.


----------



## michael_selway (2 September 2008)

Aargh! said:


> Hope could be:
> 
> 1. Sinopec increase flow rates substantially.
> 
> ...




They do have a lot of cash on hand which is good

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -18.2 -9.0 34.4 44.3 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## jonojpsg (3 September 2008)

I would have thought that Sino would be ramping up production asap.  Given that production has averaged about 4000bopd over the last quarter, it couldn't be too difficult to push that up with some experienced production managers at the helm, assuming that Sino has actually brought some of their people on the scene.  

Don't forget that the platform was intended to be producing 20000bopd so there must be something they can do to improve on 4000?!  The obvious argument being if there was something they could do it would have been done 

I am still optimistic but maybe have my head in the sand


----------



## oldblue (3 September 2008)

My layman's reading of the problems with the complex geology of the Puffin field is that it requires more than new management, rather, some extensive reworking/redrilling work. I'm confident that Sinopec can handle this in due course but wouldn't expect quick results.

Disc: Not holding but interested via NWE's ORR.


----------



## Go Nuke (3 September 2008)

jimski said:


> Hellllooooo! Is there anybody there or am I the very last person with any interest whatsoever in this stock.  I am a die hard optimist much to my bank manager's dismay but even I am losing interest in this.  Is there any hope on the horizon?




To answer your question...

I bought a few at $9+..so Ive taken this off my watchlist as Im sure that Im not going to make any money out of this one for a long time!

So no...Im not really interested in AED.

The sp has been doing bugger all. Even with oil at record highs.


----------



## jimski (3 September 2008)

Thanks for those replies - I am going to put my own head back in the sand (or somewhere else) and come back to this in a few months.


----------



## Go Nuke (4 September 2008)

Well after todays announcement...come back in about *3 months!*

The sp will probably rise on speculation that the Puffin wells will come up with the goods.

Buy the rumour sell the fact.
There will be alot of nervous punters out there in regards to AED now.


----------



## Go Nuke (10 September 2008)

woot!!

Got my cheque for....(Drum roll......).....$26!!!! LOL
For the franked dividend.

Thanks AED!

{Absolutle no sarcasim ment...not one bit!! }  :horse:


----------



## michael_selway (10 September 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> woot!!
> 
> Got my cheque for....(Drum roll......).....$26!!!! LOL
> For the franked dividend.
> ...




Hm only $26.00? how many shares did you buy?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 128.4 34.3 42.8 -- 
DPS 20.0 0.0 0.0 -- *






thx

MS


----------



## laurie (10 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm only $26.00? how many shares did you buy?




Try dividing $26 by 20c!                                                                         

cheers laurie


----------



## Go Nuke (11 September 2008)

LOL...thats what i thought Laurie.

The answer is not many
THANK GOD!!

I got in at over $9!

The $26 is nothing compared to what Ive lost...even on 100+ shares


----------



## Go Nuke (18 September 2008)

OMG...$1.30!

Are any of my stocks going to make it through this ****!!!

$1.30 for a company producing oil and cashed up???

I give up.


----------



## kingbrown (29 October 2008)

It actually beggers belief !! 
That ppl still own this disaster and attempt to talk it up on this forum ??????????


----------



## Go Nuke (4 November 2008)

Hey im not talking it up!

I'm just expressing my suprise and disappointment at the current sp.

Oil is a finite resourse.


----------



## Oil Drip (9 December 2008)

I'm newish to AED. Only in the last 6 months but think any business with shares valued at $2 odd vs a price of $1 odd seems a good buy. Is this too simplistic? Why isn't the price going up, especially now that the company is buying its own shares back?


----------



## rub92me (9 December 2008)

The price of oil dropping from USD145 to USD40 didn't exactly help their profitability. For the rest of the saga: have a good read through this thread for starters...


----------



## prawn_86 (9 December 2008)

Oil Drip said:


> I'm newish to AED. Only in the last 6 months but think any business with shares valued at $2 odd vs a price of $1 odd seems a good buy. Is this too simplistic? Why isn't the price going up, especially now that the company is buying its own shares back?




If the price is $1 then that is what its value is, the value assigned to it by the market is what counts, not some hypothetical NTA.


----------



## Oil Drip (9 December 2008)

Yes, I agree in principle, but AED has about 300 million in the bank and only 150million shares. Am I wrong in thinking that would mean that IF I had 150million dollars I could  buy the whole company and then pay myself back from their (now my) cash and still have 150mill left over?? Surely someone like cashed up (like BHP) will eventually see this and buy them up??


----------



## prawn_86 (9 December 2008)

The market is anticipating that they will blow this cash/not put it to good use, and managements track record doesnt exactly help with the credibility.

Also, it would take much more than just the current MC to buy the stock, as not everyone would be willing to sell at this price, so the offer would probably have to be 200 or even 250 million, although if someone lobbed an offer i would doubt they would actually get it below cash value, because no one would be willing to sell, therefore th offer would not get the 80 or 90% acceptance required.


----------



## Xavier (9 December 2008)

If you read their September quarterly report, you will notice that they did not explain at all how and why they spent 14.6 million dollar cash on production. Yet the incoming cash (revenue from production) for that quarter was only 15 million. Does anyone know why they spent that much? I am a newbie to shares by the way.


----------



## chops_a_must (9 December 2008)

Xavier said:


> If you read their September quarterly report, you will notice that they did not explain at all how and why they spent 14.6 million dollar cash on production. Yet the incoming cash (revenue from production) for that quarter was only 15 million. Does anyone know why they spent that much? I am a newbie to shares by the way.



Because they are incompetent.

They rooted the start up, ignored specialist consultants, tried to cut corners to get cheaper production in the beginning.

But they rogered it, despite all the advice they ignored.

And I doubt their production costs are much lower than the POO, because the ongoing maintenance for the short cuts they went for must be massive.


----------



## Go Nuke (7 January 2009)

Well guys even though this has been a dog of a stock with incompetent management, the price of oil is helping their sp.

90c looks like its a good base and with oil prices on the way up, so is AED.
They are producing oil (less than they should be unfortunately) and have a drilling plan in place for 09, cash in the bank...so we could start to see a steady increase in the co's share price for the 2009 year
Volume is WAY off though


----------



## michael_selway (7 January 2009)

Go Nuke said:


> Well guys even though this has been a dog of a stock with incompetent management, the price of oil is helping their sp.
> 
> 90c looks like its a good base and with oil prices on the way up, so is AED.
> They are producing oil (less than they should be unfortunately) and have a drilling plan in place for 09, cash in the bank...so we could start to see a steady increase in the co's share price for the 2009 year
> Volume is WAY off though




yeah not bad today

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 17.4 -11.9 33.3 71.2 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *






thx

MS


----------



## Lachlan6 (8 January 2009)

The next question is can AED continue to climb in the shorter term? My EW count has the stock firmly entrenched in a larger corrective A, B, C pattern of a likely larger (A), (B), (C) meaning longer term it still looks bleak. There is scope for continued upside shorter term however maybe even to $3.60. Some nice divergence in MACD between lows in Feb and Nov last year.


----------



## jimski (6 February 2009)

I've been away from this one for some time (busy watching the world meltdown).  I'm still holding a few of these and wonder if someone can kindly summarise where the hell AED has got to?  Clearly it is a dog of a stock and clearly the management are a bunch of losers but is there any silver lining?  Net effect of the Sino JV seems to be zero?  Is there any chance of increasing production rates?  Is there any hope of finding a vast new well in the Puffin field.  Do we have anything going for us or shall I stuff these under the mattress.  The last few I hold I bought at $1.80 - if I could get that back and slink off quietly I'd be happy.


----------



## Dangerous (11 February 2009)

don't directors own a lot of this stock.... 

could there be another dividend announced?


---

---

---


----------



## AED Blunder (11 February 2009)

..... I would wait a little while longer. This stock has some way to go and with a little patience you might be able to pick it up at around 10 cents. The new Chinese partners are already thrilled with this Aussie icon. At first they did not know the meaning of the word 'puff', but I believe that someone has now provided some explanation and a context in which it may be used: "Up in a puff of smoke".


----------



## jonojpsg (11 February 2009)

Well, based on their quarterly, they produced just over 2000 bopd in the Dec qtr, which is pretty crap if you ask me  I thought they were producing around 4-5 thousand a day but well short of that.  

I do like the fact that they have enough storage capacity in the FPSO to avoid these ridiculously low oil prices, with 400k barrels in stock - and the fact that they still have about $1.60 per share CASH, which makes me think that I might hang on for a bit longer


----------



## Go Nuke (13 February 2009)

> the fact that they still have about $1.60 per share CASH




Thats interesting isn't it. im glad you brought that up.

It must be doing a CFE (Cape Lambert Iron).
Its sp fell like  a rock and was well below their cash per share basis.

Now look at it from where it was. Not sure if its on par or not now. I'll shuffle over to the CFE thread and ask that

Down side is...AED breaking 90c support level is not good.
Probably best to wait for oil prices to rise again..then maybe AED will have to play catch up to the cash backing


----------



## Shrewd Crude (14 February 2009)

aed blunder...
yeah... And I could get BHP for 25cents...
come on man...
get real...

.^sc


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 March 2009)

Hey guys, well I was speaking with an old investment mate of mine and he brought AED to my attention yesterday

To be honest never really looked at the company because I played its main Puffin project through the royalty NWE was to recieve 

Anyhoo a quick look confirmed the following

*AED
Shares: 155m
Cash $270m
Obligations: $200m  *(Tax referbishment development etc etc)


So nothing really to get excited about except the fact that SIPC paid $560m US (in much much more buoyant times) for 60% of AED's projects, which would say that the balance 40% AED owns is worth $375m US which at 0.66 AUD/USD = $570m AUD approx =* $3.67 a share AED*

Given the current melt down lets assume SIPC would only be willing to 1/4th to a half of what they originally paid for the balance 40%

That means assuming they wanted to SIPC could offer 90c - $1.80 for AED 

Now alot of this depends on if SIPC actually wants the remaining 40%, also I think at current Oil Price levels the project is marginal at best but I am a firm believe in the Peak Oil theory and hence believe this oil price is just a blip and think $60-$80 is a much more reasonable medium term price


Anyhoo I'm in at 61c for a punt

thoughts?


----------



## nizar (18 March 2009)

Hey welcome back bro,

Long time.



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> To be honest never really looked at the company because I played its main Puffin project through the royalty NWE was to recieve




I played them both :



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Anyhoo a quick look confirmed the following
> 
> *AED
> Shares: 155m
> ...




While I agree with your analysis (its all based on fact so cant disagree really) i think its important to keep in mind that its not a bullmarket anymore AND even in a bullmarket, these valuation plays don't always work out.

As an example, Do you remember JRL and EME?



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Anyhoo I'm in at 61c for a punt




Whats a punt exactly? 500k shares? :

Good to see you back here.


----------



## jonojpsg (18 March 2009)

Hey YT, I'll add my welcome to Nizars - and I'm extremely happy you chose AED to return with   If anyone is likely to get some interest back into this dog, you are.  

In fact, let's just make this a little experiment in the power of one individual to influence a stock price.  Looking at AEDs SP over the last year, one can really only see down down down (with some little blips up).  Over the last two months we've seen a 40% decline with 25% of that in the last ten days!!

It shouldn't then be too difficult to see whether YTs entering the fray has a positive impact - anyone with me on this?

Sorry if this is offensive YT - I'll be happy to withdraw the post if it is 

PS There was one line in the half yearly that did have me concerned



> The Company has recognised an impairment write-down of $50.6 million in relation to its production assets *as a result of
> recent production performance*, the current economic conditions and the fall in oil commodity prices




This obviously relates to the **** production of 2000bopd rather than 10-20k that they were originally planning for, but if they can't fix that with the cash they've got then, well, as YT pointed out, SINO may not have to pay much at all.

Oh well, I'll be watching the next few weeks to see if the YT factor comes into play


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 March 2009)

Hey Niz, yeah long time bud hope you've been well

To be honest I had no idea how much SIPC had paid for the 60% share and I didn't think the funds actually came through, so was very surprised to see they had

I think the oil price is definately hurting AED but the fact that it has plenty of cash to last at least 12months with current unprofitable conditions means that when/if the oil price goes back to say $60 then profitability will return as will the predators imo

I don't know why AED don't just store the oil and wait for higher prices, I think I read somewhere Exxon Mobil where doing that, I think its a gamble but smart


lol the YT factor I think AED is a bit more sophisticated than that

Any chartist views?


----------



## kevinecom (19 March 2009)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Niz, yeah long time bud hope you've been well
> 
> To be honest I had no idea how much SIPC had paid for the 60% share and I didn't think the funds actually came through, so was very surprised to see they had
> 
> ...




YT, 
Glad to see u back, does this mean we're in the bull market now? lol 

Hoping to see more of your research on the undervalue stock.


----------



## Go Nuke (19 March 2009)

Well, Im not really a chartist..but more of one than a fundamentalist:

I'd have to say short term after 5 negative days down its pretty over sold and you could almost be assured of a gain in the next few days.

I'd probably look to exit at 76c - 80c.

Oil prices have been going up and this baby has been going down...not a good sign. But definitely over sold lately.


----------



## jimski (7 May 2009)

*GREAT AUK!*

Today's announcement re hydrocarbon discovery at Great Auk seems to have given this old dog some upwards momentum at last.  Can anyone interpret the ASX official release better than I can?  My reading is that this discovery confirms that the indcations are good it is still very much uncertain as to whether this might lead to actual production  in future.


----------



## Nero64 (10 May 2009)

Just read about 20 pages of this thread. Feel enriched by reading it and will re-examine anything in my current portfolio. 

It has everything to make a block buster movie or book - My title would be The false dawn, The company that never delivered.

People buying and buying in the belief that it will go to the moon. 

Company execs giving out glowing unsustainable reports 

Throw in Alan Kohler as the investigative journolist who goes along with the hype. 

CEO's wearing base ball caps to general meetings.

People buying at the top on broker and newspaper reports betting their life savings

The belief in the sp going up again with such strong fudamentals. 

This disbelief as the bad reports start coming in. 

The company ignoring the pleas of its shareholders

The unscrupulous brokers who place buy targets on the stock and suck more buyers into it. 

Rising oil prices at the backdrop of the worse financial crisis in 70 years

The short sellers and opportunistic bounce reversal traders who carve more flesh and blood from the buy and hold at all cost investors. 

Ectasy and pain and then silence. 

Now the sharks and bottom feaders see profits again.


----------



## happytown (28 May 2009)

aed has entered into a transaction to acquire a 50% jv with nexus in the longtom project (first gas and condensate production expected july) and an exploration permit



> ...
> 
> Key highlights of the transaction include:
> – AED to acquire a 50% interest in Longtom project for A$155 million
> ...



sp currently down approx 4% on low volume

cheers


----------



## logic&reason (30 May 2009)

*AED OIL SCREAMING BUY!!!*

Since AED sold 60% of its assets for 600 million to sinopec its virtually debt free and also has a lot of money to start future expansions. It also is currently producing at a stable pace. With the oil price bottoming the average profit per barrel should be around $15-$20 US which values its 40million barrel reserve at a profit of 600 million with a conservative view. Or its saying the field is worth 2.4billion in US if oil is priced at $60 per barrel. Right now AED has a market capital of 161million which means it is definitly undervalued since just its profit is worth 240million.


----------



## jimski (2 June 2009)

*Re: AED - Screaming buy????*

I wonder if AED Blunder agrees with that sentiment?!  Are the BOD turning this thing around at last or are they still wearing baseball caps and playing fast and loose with ordinary shareholders investments?


----------



## Aargh! (3 June 2009)

*Re: AED OIL SCREAMING BUY!!!*



logic&reason said:


> Since AED sold 60% of its assets for 600 million to sinopec its virtually debt free and also has a lot of money to start future expansions. It also is currently producing at a stable pace. With the oil price bottoming the average profit per barrel should be around $15-$20 US which values its 40million barrel reserve at a profit of 600 million with a conservative view. Or its saying the field is worth 2.4billion in US if oil is priced at $60 per barrel. Right now AED has a market capital of 161million which means it is definitly undervalued since just its profit is worth 240million.




Had to laugh at this one post wonder. Let's not consider recoverable oil because why would we? 

The field will never be worth 2.4 billion. They were lucky to make someone believe it was worth 1 billion. Beware of cons in suits and baseball caps, they fooled most of us.

Nevertheless who can argue with you when you say and I quote "AED OIL SCREAMING BUY!!!"


----------



## UPKA (3 June 2009)

*Re: AED OIL SCREAMING BUY!!!*



logic&reason said:


> Since AED sold 60% of its assets for 600 million to sinopec its virtually debt free and also has a lot of money to start future expansions. It also is currently producing at a stable pace. With the oil price bottoming the average profit per barrel should be around $15-$20 US which values its 40million barrel reserve at a profit of 600 million with a conservative view. Or its saying the field is worth 2.4billion in US if oil is priced at $60 per barrel. Right now AED has a market capital of 161million which means it is definitly undervalued since just its profit is worth 240million.




i think ur figures r way out... you would be lucky to extract about 30% of the total reserve. is 40m barrels proven or probable reserve?


----------



## jimski (13 August 2009)

Does anyone other than me and the directors still hold some AED?
What happens next now that Puffin is closed down?  
Link here to a West African purchase by Sinopec...

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/08/12/ap6769283.html


----------



## Aargh! (13 August 2009)

jimski said:


> Does anyone other than me and the directors still hold some AED?
> What happens next now that Puffin is closed down?
> Link here to a West African purchase by Sinopec...
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/08/12/ap6769283.html




I took what little of my initial investment that was left in AED and sold it. Took a big hit and glad to be out of the joke that is AED Oil. I would love to get my hands on the directors...


----------



## jimski (13 August 2009)

Aargh! said:


> I took what little of my initial investment that was left in AED and sold it. Took a big hit and glad to be out of the joke that is AED Oil. I would love to get my hands on the directors...




Probably the best decision of your life! I sold the bulk of what I had when the price was on the way down from the dizzying heights of 10 bucks plus but stupidly kept hold of some for god knows what misguided reason and took my eye off the ball.  I live in hope that I will just be able to get rid of those at par which for me was around 1.80.  What a bunch of muppets!

:horse::horse:

:badass::badass:


----------



## AED Blunder (1 September 2009)

.... Whatever these incapable people do turns into a failure. Just read their recent company announcements and you get a pretty good idea. They remind me of a drug addicted teenager who comes back to daddy at regular intervals, asking yet again for a few more dollars. You know deep down that another life is waisted. I can't tell you how angry I am with this company and their useless and arrogant executives. I no longer own AED shares.


----------



## DVEOUS (2 September 2009)

AED has been on my Commsec watchlist for a while now, along with a few other oilers.
I haven't really been following it's SP or this thread much at all, until now.
I appreciate you taking the time to comment, and have now removed it from my watchlist.

Sounds like CCE I bought into. 
What a dog that has been, and I don't need another one.


----------



## FLYFIFER (10 September 2009)

*AED OIL*

Any one have any idea what is happening here with Puffin? We were promised a new independent engineers report by end June 2009 ~ instead total silence!

Thanks,
Flyfifer


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## AED Blunder (16 September 2009)

..... The stuff that goes on behind the scenes of this 'company' is hair raising. Take a look at the latest announcement, where almost one million new shares were issued in exchange of convertible notes. No initial disclosure and further heavy dilution of the common share holdings. Won't be long before a new capital raising exercise will be due, possibly at 50 cents (or less) per share. Another opportunity to burn some cash, if you are looking for a tax deduction. All these people seem to be doing is sitting around a table in some hotel room, working out these deals. Meanwhile their laughable rig is floating around trying to suck a few drops of oil from the puffin joint venture (love that name), long abandoned by a much larger and experienced resource giant. It really is high time that the ASX is handing over the supervisory control of all listed shares to a hopefully more curious body. Just my opinion of course.


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## Nero64 (19 September 2009)

This stock I reckon is undervalued. Based on assets alone it is worth $1.40+

Last few days have saw some blow off wics on the lows with increasing volume. Friday saw a hammer type doji with a move off the lows into the black on a down day.


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## RP_Automotive (20 September 2009)

I believe the reason this stock is undervalued is because of the wrecklesness of management...nobody really has confidence in which way its going to go.


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## AED Blunder (30 September 2009)

Take a look at the latest 'activity report' just published minutes after the close of business at the stock exchange (these guys are just fantastic). The front page is coloured in black, with a look and feel of a funeral notice. This stock is most definetily not valued correctly. Ask me how much I think it is really worth and that reply will not be published in this thread. A bunch of incompetent criminals. No joke!


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## Knobby22 (1 October 2009)

AED Blunder said:


> Take a look at the latest 'activity report' just published minutes after the close of business at the stock exchange (these guys are just fantastic). The front page is coloured in black, with a look and feel of a funeral notice. This stock is most definetily not valued correctly. Ask me how much I think it is really worth and that reply will not be published in this thread. A bunch of incompetent criminals. No joke!




Oh. I don't know, at least one of them hasn't got their foot caught in the hole or hasn't slipped in the grease. 

It looks like AED has missed out on getting a half share of the Longtom project at Nexus at a great price. I am quite happy as a Nexus holder.

I diagree that AED is unfairly priced. They need to prove up that they can get the oil out of the ground to give confidence to the investors. If and when they do, then you may see some repricing.  I lost a bit on this company but got out long ago.


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## Skip1jz (1 October 2009)

It's suprising (although it shouldn't be considering we are talking AED) that they have not yet released any news or plans on where they are heading with Puffin e.g. negotiations on a new FPSO contract, correct me if im wrong but I havent seen anything.  Looks as if the apparent technical problems of the old FPSO may be used as AED's scapegoat for the poor performance of the well.


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## jimski (1 October 2009)

I've read the report.  $100 mil cash balance after Nexus returns $35 mil cash deposit.  Plans to rebuild value in the company (???) A new field development plan?  Something more for the BOD to screw up?  What I just don't understand is how any of this can be considered so positive as to give the SP a near on 20% boost.  What have I missed?  Have they made a new find?  Have they got production on stream again?  I just don't get this company at all. :horse::horse:


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## Skip1jz (1 October 2009)

May be a new find.  You can see back in May the stock ramped just before the release of the Hydrocarbon Discovery news at Great Auk-1. Perhaps we will see an announcement tomorrow.


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## Nero64 (1 October 2009)

> What I just don't understand is how any of this can be considered so positive as to give the SP a near on 20% boost. What have I missed? Have they made a new find? Have they got production on stream again? I just don't get this company at all.




Yeah it's hard to tell. The action started shortly after lunch. Then increasing in momentum after 3.00pm. Perhaps some funds buying in, but I doubt it as the numbers are too low. Except at 3.52pm at .69c and order for 208k. 

Maybe it could be just relief as more transparency is revealed in those reports. It wasn't a great year but their cash position is still good. Debt certainly manageable. 

Did any option expiry's happen today?

Oil did go up $3 overnight but didn't notice any rally across the sector.

Will look out for something in the next few days.


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## AED Blunder (18 November 2009)

Watch out........ AED has just announced that it will become active in Asia from 2010. More potential for huge stuff ups and above all, some additional capital raisings. Don't be surprised if they are knocking on your door again soon. Does anyone know how much a golf club membership costs in Brunei?

:bananasmi


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## Aargh! (18 November 2009)

AED Blunder said:


> Watch out........ AED has just announced that it will become active in Asia from 2010. More potential for huge stuff ups and above all, some additional capital raisings. Don't be surprised if they are knocking on your door again soon. Does anyone know how much a golf club membership costs in Brunei?
> 
> :bananasmi




I think the cost of a golf club membership in Brunei would be more than the bribe required to get you out of jail for committing murder..............

Disclaimer: that was a joke


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## AED Blunder (27 November 2009)

..... Financial crisis!, what financial crisis? Any problems in the Gulf Region? Let AED sort things out, they are experts with this kind of thing. Let's just borrow some more money, sign another contract and of course, that golf club membership. Anyone for a capital raising? Going cheap ......

:thankyou:


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## Douding (15 December 2009)

At least for now, AED is heading for a rebound. Besides, it is pretty cheap  given 90 millions cash in hand.

50MA 0.595
100MA 0.64

Let's see if it can cross the 100MA...


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## Wysiwyg (15 December 2009)

What's happening with the $60 million claim against AED from the Sea Production FPSO mob? The West Atlas oil spill doesn't bode well for any drilling around there at the moment either.


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## Douding (16 December 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> What's happening with the $60 million claim against AED from the Sea Production FPSO mob? The West Atlas oil spill doesn't bode well for any drilling around there at the moment either.




Is the 60 million claim against AED only or against Puffin Joint Venture? If it is the later case, then AED at the maximum (if the case fails) need to pay 24 million plus 40% of the legal fee...?


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## Wysiwyg (16 December 2009)

Douding said:


> Is the 60 million claim against AED only or against Puffin Joint Venture? If it is the later case, then AED at the maximum (if the case fails) need to pay 24 million plus 40% of the legal fee...?



Hello, from what I can gather it is AED the company. The Brunei deal can't be far away and it looks like $3 million up front and 24 million fpo's which at 60c (don't know the price probably VWAP) equals $14,400,000.  Drilling in the first half of 2010 if all goes to plan, LoL.

Wants compensation.



> AED is a 100% subsidiary of AED Oil Limited, a public company which is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. AED Oil Limited is a 40% joint venture partner in the Puffin Field, offshore North‐western Australia. The field operator and owner of the remaining 60% of the joint venture is East Puffin Pty Limited (“EPPL”), a wholly‐owned subsidiary of China petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec). The Front Puffin FPSO went on charter to AED on 5 June 2007 for an initial two year term and achieved first oil on 6 October 2007. *On 15 September 2008, AED and EPPL agreed with Puffin FPSO Ltd to extend the charter for a further year until 15 June **2010*.




http://otc.nfmf.no/public/news/10828.pdf


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## jimski (11 January 2010)

*Is the dog waking up?*

I've been in this stock for several years.  Made more money than I have lost by selling on the way down from dizzying heights of $10+ but stupidly kept hold of a bunch and have been waiting ever since for the baseball cap golfing incompetents that run this company to return some value.  I note the Brunei development and high volume rise of 8%+ today.  Is this old dog waking up or is it just another false dawn?  Any and all opinion would be welcome as I only have half an eye on this one.


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## Wysiwyg (3 May 2010)

> Block L, Brunei
> 
> Brunei is one of Asia’s most prospective hydrocarbon regions and is currently Asia’s third largest oil and gas producer. *AED South East Asia Limited (a wholly* *owned subsidiary of AED) has a 50% operator interest in Block L in Brunei* (Figure 3). Block L covers an area of approximately 2,200 sq km and is mainly onshore. The billion barrel Seria oil and gas field is located approximately 20km from the boundary of Block L. Additionally, a large gas field (Bubut) was recently discovered on an adjoining block near the boundary of Block L.





Brunei exploration well has spudded and some information on the block. Can't see the State giving away a baby elephant in Block L so might be a case of so close yet so far with these wells. "Baseball cap golfing incompetents aside". 

As evident on the accompanying charts there was no pre-spud price run-up but the SMI has converged with  Signal after the recent price reversal. Additionally, a longer term symmetrical triangle is evident. 

31 days of speculation.


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## Slipperz (12 May 2010)

Two weeks into the drill and the SP has finally caught some traction albeit on very low volumes.

Worth a speculative flutter at this stage of proceedings imho


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## Slipperz (2 June 2010)

Woohoo Success!


"AED Oil (AED) reports drilling operations at the Lukut-1 well, Brunei, have intersected possible reservoirs. 

The Lukut-1 well recently reached its extended target depth of 2230m and an extensive logging program will be initiated today including wire line logging and sampling to evaluate the well, and determine the extent and nature of the hydrocarbons.

The Lukut prospect is defined as a three-way fault structural trap, with the Lukut-1 well targeting shallow water delta front sands in the Belait Formation.

Pending the outcomes of logging, the Lukut-1 well could be suspended. "


I hope the reservoir is very very big!


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## Slipperz (6 June 2010)

I wonder if the analysts are working overtime on the wire logging samples to get a good announcement out before the impending bloodbath on Monday.

It would certainly help mitigate any negative market sentiment if we have a commercial discovery on our hands here.

Interestingly the jvp with a 40% interest Kulczyk Oil Ventures has seen a rocket under it's share price on the Warsaw exchange  on the news whereas here the market has been unimpressed. 

http://www.gpw.pl/wykresy/wykres.asp?ticker=KOV


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## Slipperz (7 June 2010)

I've been wondering why the drill went past  it's anticipated total depth of 2125 metres down to 2230 metres

105 metres to be exact.

Did they intersect a reservoir at 2125 metres and drill to the base?

That's a 105 metre column of oil. 

Surely if the reservoir had already been intersected drilling would of ceased so why go deeper?

Decided to put a bit more weight on the wire logging results and hung my order out this afternoon for 50 cents and noone would sell any. On a day like today! 

So I upped my bid to 51 cents and got a few more. There ended the days trading in a mexican standoff.

Me with a partly filled order unwilling to go up another half cent and noone coming down to sell to me.

If the news is good tomorrow half a cent is going to look like nothing but I wasn't going to chase anything on a day like today :


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## laurie (7 June 2010)

I hope this is not going to be another Puffin because failure here is only going to run the bank account down! 

cheers laurie


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## Slipperz (8 June 2010)

laurie said:


> I hope this is not going to be another Puffin because failure here is only going to run the bank account down!
> 
> cheers laurie





I think we have a success!

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100608/pdf/31qr63lgs5b082.pdf


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## Wysiwyg (30 June 2010)

So the first exploration well turned up traces of gas at various zones along with increased gas traces at planned depth which prompted extending total drill depth. Now onto the second exploration well at Lempuyang which according to AED ...


> The Lempuyang-1 drilling program will target larger and deeper oil and gas prospects than Lukut-1.



It does appear this next well holds AED's best chance of commercial success.


> It is of interest that the two nearest off‐set wells to Lempuyang‐1 (Birau‐1 and ‐2) both encountered significant gas kicks at the top of this package before drilling was halted.



TAP oil and KOV are two other new players on the block with the attraction of nearby large commercial oil/gas production surely to be the drawcard but Mr. Ulmer's words below go along with all oilers I say.  


> *Kulczyk Oil Ventures, a Canadian oil group with a big stake in both Brunei blocks*, says it estimates total prospective resources at about 80m boe in Block L and about 60m in Block M.
> 
> Kulczyk, controlled by Polish businessman Jan Kulczyk, is preparing for a $265m initial public offering on the Warsaw Stock Exchange next month.
> Back in the jungle, the oil men are more cautious. “There is a chance that we won’t get our money back,” says Mr Ulmer.
> ...


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## Enlightened108 (27 May 2011)

AED sure doesn't have much luck with CEO's.
Now Mr. Imle. An ageing (70?) coming across from shareholder Nations Petroleum and a former Bigwig President of Unocal. Imle is still working on damage control after the corporate vs humanitarian trial of the decade in the late '90s. When Imle led Unocal in its partnership with military dictatorship of Myanmar/Burma - there is compelling, ghastly evidence of its complicity in murder, rape, torture, and slave labor. That was after Imle testified to a U.S. Senate Committee on the wonderful things Unocal was going to do for the Burmese community. 

His damage control was to help form the Business Humanitarian Forum in Geneva with a group of other famous transnational offenders ostensibly to improve the lot of LDCs when dealing with corporations from developed countries.
Poor AED - running out of money and options for finance. Puffin just a memory they're apparently trying to flog their 40% of. What value is Imle going to give to shareholders - except updates in market releases that drive the share price down further.
FYI:
http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/burma/ 
http://www.ibiblio.org/obl/reg.burma/archives/199701/msg00275.html 
http://scholar.google.com/scholar_c...XeSXKEJ:scholar.google.com/&hl=en&as_sdt=0,16 
http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/kissingerunocal.htm 

But I still hang on to a small parcel - a highly speculative bet.


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## tech/a (21 July 2011)

Popping nicely and under the Fundamental radar.
(Thats a techi speaking!)


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## alexc2005 (21 July 2011)

tech/a said:


> Popping nicely and under the Fundamental radar.
> (Thats a techi speaking!)




bloody hell i was watching this at 7.3c yesterday.

So depressed i didnt buy!! haha


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## bbker (21 July 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> bloody hell i was watching this at 7.3c yesterday.
> 
> So depressed i didnt buy!! haha




I don't see what's changed in the company since the last month. Suddenly 4 million shares traded today.

Other than something suspect like insider knowledge, is an sensitive event expected shortly or is this a pump and dump for the issue of placement shares?


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## brokenback (22 July 2011)

The shares have moved from 8c on Tuesday to 20.5 cents this morning on big turnover. No announcement by the company, no indication of a speeding ticket from ASX. Is there any chance of long suffering shareholders being able to trade this stock in an informed market ?


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## tech/a (22 July 2011)

brokenback said:


> The shares have moved from 8c on Tuesday to 20.5 cents this morning on big turnover. No announcement by the company, no indication of a speeding ticket from ASX. Is there any chance of long suffering shareholders being able to trade this stock in an informed market ?




Yeh learn to trade technically.


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## alexc2005 (22 July 2011)

man, this is insane.

So much rapid growth.

Might see it get back up to the 2.60 i payed for it a few years ago hahaha just kidding!


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## alexc2005 (22 July 2011)

I'm tempted to try and milk something out of this rise. However its holding me back that the company sucks and that as soon as the interest is gone so will the price.

Already turned 3k into 200 bucks with AED, don't wish to repeat..


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## skc (15 August 2011)

RIP, AED. You died such a young age. I didn't know you very well, but your chart showed that you had a very promising youth. What happened to you? How did it all fall apart? Were the investor expectations too much to live up to? It was only their fault that they made rosy assumptions about what is under the ground. And what happened in your final week? Many thought that was the start of your turnaround. You displayed a spurt of energy that hasn't been seen for years - but that sadly turned into false hope and the ultimate sucker rally. 

RIP, AED.


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## skc (15 August 2011)

skc said:


> RIP, AED.




Just spent the last hour or so skimming through the thread. Absolutely amazing. 2.5 years running up to production, the next Woodside, ASX200 inclusion and a 20 bagger, only to fall >90% within 3 months of starting production.

A wonderful education on:
- Valuation of oilers
- Risk management
- Trader/investor psychology

Here are just a handful of samples.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3374&p=229614&viewfull=1#post229614

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3374&p=229559&viewfull=1#post229559

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3374&p=229559&viewfull=1#post229559

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3374&p=230173&viewfull=1#post230173

Apologies to any posters up there who's still active.


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## Enlightened108 (15 August 2011)

There has not been a real market in this company's shares at least up until recently. Reliable technical analysis is therefore simply not possible.
Former managing director Ken Tregonning's company Winlen is required to report to the ASX any share trades since it owns more than 5% of the issued capital. Winlen does not report trades in a timely fashion. It owned 11% on 17th Sept 10, but reported on 8th April that shareholding had been reduced to 9%. 

But take a look at the dates and quantities of trades in Winlen’s Form 604 lodged 8/4/11 (it took seven months to report all the trades). For example, take the Feb/Mar/April trades, Winlen bought up bits of stock over about six weeks and then sold around double the amount of those purchases in one day: 2.5 mil shares. 

The trading patterns look highly suspect. What has Winlen been trading since 8th April when it last reported?
There hasn't been a real market in this stock for a long time or at least up until the recent capital raising. Low average daily volume, a former MD trading heavily (compared to average volume), and, as a significant shareholder, not reporting properly, means that *any technical analysis on AED was blatantly misleading.*

Where's the ASIC when unscrupulous people are doing things like this? If any of you have lost money on AED, or have been trying to trade this stock, contact the ASIC and ASX and complain about Tregonning/Winlen's activities and have him, his wife and Winlen investigated. Winlen and its directors should at least be fined for not reporting trades in a timely way.
I hope that man and wife (company secretary) lose a bundle on AED. Some small satisfaction for small shareholders and would-be technical traders.

BUT, one more thing, "voluntary administration" is different to "in liquidation." It could be a tactic to trade on while trying to negotiate a more palatable settlement with Sea Production (headquarters in Norway), http://www.seaproduction.no/index.php?name=Current_Projects1, or at least buys time to prevent a fire-sale liquidation.
Nothing to do now but wait and see. 
AED down, but not out yet.




skc said:


> RIP, AED. You died such a young age. I didn't know you very well, but your chart showed that you had a very promising youth. What happened to you? How did it all fall apart? Were the investor expectations too much to live up to? It was only their fault that they made rosy assumptions about what is under the ground. And what happened in your final week? Many thought that was the start of your turnaround. You displayed a spurt of energy that hasn't been seen for years - but that sadly turned into false hope and the ultimate sucker rally.
> 
> RIP, AED.
> 
> View attachment 44065


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