# XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!



## tech/a

Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact *not be the top*.  

*The evidence is in technical form.* Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.

I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.

Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!

*Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!*


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## wayneL

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact *not be the top*.
> 
> *The evidence is in technical form.* Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.
> 
> I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.
> 
> Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!
> 
> *Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!*




 I'd have to change my avatar to something along these lines. LOL


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## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact *not be the top*.
> 
> *The evidence is in technical form.* Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.
> 
> I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.
> 
> Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!
> 
> *Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!*





Will be very interested with what you have to present Tech.

Must say however, I have not seen as more Ending Diagonals in so many stoxx throughout this index than what is now evident!


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## professor_frink

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact *not be the top*.
> 
> *The evidence is in technical form.* Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.
> 
> I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.
> 
> Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!
> 
> *Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!*



So the majority think this is THE top? Which majority would that be tech? From what I've seen, most that haven't already bought the first dip, are looking to buy the next one expecting us to hit new highs over the next few months


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Prof.
You mean my view isnt out of step with the majority?
Great!

Mind you Ive not seen any evidence other than people buying dips that this market will make new highs.
Out of interest do you* or others * think that a new high is possible?
Further do you think that a top is---how far off?
A---Years
B---Its already been made.
C---Sometime this year sooner than later.
*WHY*

Just interested in if there is some corroboration.
Steve's analysis corroborates---in part--my own.---as an example.


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## ice

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

FWIW I think we have arrived at the top but we still have time-on, so the exact top may not be in yet.
I base that  on 2 things. 

1. The 400+ point selloff of the Dow a couple of weeks ago. Not your everyday pullback. 

2, The big day ranges and abrupt reversals we are seeing now. To me that reflects a market in pain. 

Both factors remind me of the US market circa 2000.


ice


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## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				ice said:
			
		

> FWIW I think we have arrived at the top but we still have time-on, so the exact top may not be in yet.
> I base that  on 2 things.
> 
> 1. The 400+ point selloff of the Dow a couple of weeks ago. Not your everyday pullback.
> 
> 2, The big day ranges and abrupt reversals we are seeing now. To me that reflects a market in pain.
> 
> Both factors remind me of the US market circa 2000.
> 
> 
> ice




Silly Question,  What makes you think it was a pullback?  It may have been the start of the bear campaign, if that is the case it will not resemble a pullback that you had in the bull run will it? It's funny how people love to project the current trend into the future, "that's what it did before". 

*This market has had it way too good for way too long*, it's the bears turn for now.


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## professor_frink

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Prof.
> You mean my view isnt out of step with the majority?
> Great!



That's exactly what I mean. Didn't you hear? ABC correction then on to new highs!



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Mind you Ive not seen any evidence other than people buying dips that this market will make new highs.




It mainly seems to be the fundies that are buying the dips-probably not the evidence you are looking for in this thread, but they seem to believe it pretty strongly, to put more money in. If you are referring to EW, then no, I've not seen any analysis confirming this either.



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Out of interest do you* or others * think that a new high is possible?
> Further do you think that a top is---how far off?
> A---Years
> B---Its already been made.
> C---Sometime this year sooner than later.
> *WHY*
> 
> Just interested in if there is some corroberation.
> Steve;s analysis corroberates---in part--my own.---as an example.




I was only starting to air some moderately bearish views on the market the day before the big drop the end of last month, so I don't think I'm the sort of trader to be making calls months, or years in advance  

As a general guess-
No new highs this month.
After that it doesn't really bother me, as I'm strictly intraday these days 

I'm not really interested in making long term predictions at the moment- I just don't see the point(and it would be nothing more than a guess!)


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## chops_a_must

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact *not be the top*.
> 
> *The evidence is in technical form.* Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.
> 
> I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.
> 
> Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!
> 
> *Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!*



Total noob analysis tech, but it's something that I've been mulling over this week. Can't get a decent xjo chart, but the xao chart looks close enough.




questions:
1) Isn't that "walking zig-zag" pattern, marked in red, meant to be very bullish?

2) What are the chances of this wedge setting us up for one almighty descending wedgie later on in the year? Giving people a nice sting in the ass. That's my thinking anyway, and might be similar to what yours is.

Wave,
Just about every resource stock I see now, looks as screwed as a pooch, which dominate the xjo. But there are quite a few others (non mining) that I am on that still look incredibly bullish.

P.S. The mother of all shorting opportunities on Coles on Monday.


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## weird

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

I believe a famous Queensland premier (Joe Bjelke-Petersen) use to say, "It's like having one leg over a barbed wire fence". 

Predictions are great in retrospect, but putting one leg over a barbed wire fence, and calling each way, is another.


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

You can only present the evidence.
And you can only present it when you see it.
There are and have been strong arguements for 6053 being the top and some strong evidence to support it.
Since yesterday evidence supporting a further move to a new high has become aparent.
One foot each side---maybe--would rather do that than be caught on the wrongside.

But if we as analysts adhere to Radges "Prove--Disprove" approach to our analysis,it could be argued that analysts are forever taking a bet eachway,when infact they are interpreting information as it becomes available.We do that everyday in most decisions we make in life.


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## Bearman52

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

There is another answer fellas, which makes all this prophesisng irrelevant.
TRADE ONE DAY AT A TIME wake up in the morning, take some trades, make money!! Close all trades, sleep at night, wake up, start again, who cares if its going up, going down, going sideways, just take the money off those who have got it wrong, there will plenty of them.
BM


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## weird

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Well put Tech.


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## Dr Doom

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

ACCA - Advance, Correct, Consolidate, Advance???


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## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably? I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing. If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours. Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies". Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.

Why?

The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.

I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.


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## coyotte

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

The question I pose is where did the support for the XJO at 5641 and 5742 come from ---  Guppy maintains that support that comes out of thin air is generally suspect.

Cheers


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## coyotte

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Cunning buggers these bears


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## ducati916

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> It mainly seems to be the fundies that are buying the dips-probably not the evidence you are looking for in this thread, but they seem to believe it pretty strongly, to put more money in. If you are referring to EW, then no, I've not seen any analysis confirming this either.




You must be joking.
Pseudo-fundy peanuts maybe.

jog on
d998


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## coyotte

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably? I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing. If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours. Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies". Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.
> 
> Why?
> 
> The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.
> 
> I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.




Well isn't that what trading's all about --- but no one wants to know THAT!


Good post M

Cheers


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## coyotte

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Suppose if U want to trade u need Volatility.


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## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably? I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing. If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours. Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies". Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.
> 
> Why?
> 
> The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.
> 
> I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.




Great post Michael. 
Probably your best so far.

Have you read Trend Followers by Michael Covel? Speaks on the same lines.


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## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Have you read Trend Followers by Michael Covel? Speaks on the same lines.



Not yet. One day I will. (And thanks for the compliments.)


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

When is the evidence coming out tech?


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*Snake*
Sometime this arvo when I have a few hrs to knock it up.



> Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably?




No but to *MAXIMISE* return and to take advantage of *OPPORTUNITY ABSOLUTELY * 



> I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing.




Id say after the 200 point in one day drop in the ORDS that tends to get attention.As this is a forum for discussion on Australian stocks and their analysis it doesnt suprise me.



> If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours.



Human nature unless your an ostrich 



> Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies".



Some not all



> Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.




Nothing new here.



> Why?
> 
> The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.
> 
> I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.




Possibly to YOUR trading Michael but dont place all in the market in the same boat.


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## wayneL

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours.




[tongue in cheek]I am really very insulted by this. Have you ignored the great lengths I have gone to post as much doom and negative stories as I have over the last 2 years as the market has risen?   [/tongue in cheek]


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## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Have you ignored the great lengths I have gone to post as much doom and negative stories as I have over the last 2 years as the market has risen?



Hehehe. Permabears excluded.


			
				Tech/A said:
			
		

> Possibly to YOUR trading Michael but dont place all in the market in the same boat.



If you give 1024 people a coin and record their tosses, chances are that 1 of them will come up with 10 heads and one with 10 tails.

Does that make them skillful coin tossers? Or were they fooled by randomness?

There's a lot of that thinking applicable to bull market trading conditions. It takes more than a short run of profitable trading with any methodology to convince me that the methodology has an edge. This continues to apply to my short term methodology - it's had a positive expectancy in every month I've tested and traded it in, but I'm still yet to convince myself that this isn't just blind chance. I'll be convinced by the end of the year if it continues to perform.

To put this another way - I don't think I have very much trading skill, so I am loathe to attribute my current success to this rather than randomness.


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> If you give 1024 people a coin and record their tosses, chances are that 1 of them will come up with 10 heads and one with 10 tails.




*Of course the trick here is to pick WHICH ONES.*

In all seriousness Understanding the crowd is more benificial than attempting to find and indeed trade outliers.
But we (well most) have a go at it!


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*To the EVIDENCE.*

But firstly some background which gave rise to the evidence.
Over the years Elliot Wave keeps re occuring as a major form of analysis when looking forward---Ive yet to see another presented (perhaps other than  Frankee D's work).
There are and can be varying wave counts from practitioners with these counts all obeying the "Rules", this can also--probably more so--happen within Elliot Software.
Its extremely difficult for most to get their head around the way wave counts change and why---Beyond this discussion--but pertinent to the evidence.

*If traders can accept the "Prove---disprove---prove---disprove" aspect * of ALL analysis, explanation of the above becomes a lot clearer--I think.---not how and why but that it can and will. Only time will prove--or disprove the analysis---any analysis, even fundamental analysis.

The latest Edition of Advanced GET rolled up last week, it was during my investigation of the software that I found the following and "The Evidence".

Firstly GET labels all highest highs with a wave count---if the price moves up next day so does the wave count--retracements or corrective patterns/waves arent labelled until a complete A,B,C is confirmed.
No problems thats the dynamic nature of the Analysis.
GET also only labels 300 bars so some higher degree analysis will not be accurate as they take longer than 300 periods to complete---GET will "Make it fit"

To the XJO.
There is a COMPLETE count on the *Weekly XJO chart * showing a 5 wave completion in 3 degrees. 5 of 5 of 5
A culmination of many years and important I believe to this.




*GET's Daily count * has it in a wave 4 corrective phase. With a wave 5 to come.
If The weekly is correct (Yes I know you dont mix time frames) BUT with a 5-5-5 completion you'd expect the daily to confirm.




So what if a wave 5 did occur what would happen to the weekly count.
Basically very little all wave 5s would simply extend---wave count remains the same. Here are the possible projected wave 5 completions:

*WEEKLY*




*DAILY*





Back to the daily. Most wave 5s come from triangle patterns--currently we seem to have a triangle pattern emerging in this corrective phase.





For the current 5 wave pattern to fail we would need the wave 4 to extend lower than the top of wave 1 in the same degree---unlikley.

*The above is purely a WHAT IF---its hypothetical---it is NOT PROVEN*

*CURRENT analysis presented by Elliot wave practitioners IS CURRENTLY PROVEN and until price action PROVES the CURRENT analysis to be incorrect it must be presumed to be correct.*

Authorised by a Duck! Educational purposes only.


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## Sean K

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Thanks Tech/A. Interesting software. Will be interesting to see this unfold. GET might have a few more buyers...


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## Atomic5

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

What is your peak month Tech? End of March 2007(looks steep)? or later ... April May?


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Kenna's
Has evidently won the best trading software award from Stocks and Commodities mag for many years in a row.Pretty pricy.

Atomic.
Some of the experienced Elliot wavers would be able to place a likely or possible timeframe on it---beyond my capability at this time.


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## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

If thats a wave 4 then is it right, by EW to say that wave 5 should be complex? If that was case then it would be a longish time frame, yes?

Cheers,


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## Porper

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Kenna's
> Has evidently won the best trading software award from Stocks and Commodities mag for many years in a row.Pretty pricy.
> 
> Atomic.
> Some of the experienced Elliot wavers would be able to place a likely or possible timeframe on it---beyond my capability at this time.




Certainly interesting Tech.

Just look at last May when everybody was predicting the high then, and all the negativity about the US economy etc.The fundamentals are the same now as then, so no reason why we can't make new highs.

However Elliot wave/ fib has nothing to do with fundamentals so going way off track here.

The prove / disprove theory works well. If the triangle breaks to the downside, then we have the zigzag pattern down to a wave 4 as in Techs chart. Even this may not be the full A.B,C down though. If we get 5 waves going down it gets more interesting because then we have something more serious.

5 waves down can only be impulsive therefore the end of that sequence must be down to a larger degree wave a with a big leg down to the wave C.

But now we are getting ahead of ourselves, one step at a time.It is a never ending story using Elliot Wave so maybe best to stick to the shorter time frames.


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Could be worth mentioning then that Wave 5 CAN be the longest and this has a tendency to occur in futures markets and on *stock indices.* 

rule: 
"The maximum movement of Wave 5 is six times Wave 3 in both price and time."

guideline:
"Wave 5 will usually move beyond the end of Wave 3."


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## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Tech,

Been using AGet now for the best part 7 years.  It's wave counts are simplistic and not actually to be used as a stand alone. Tom Joseph the creater has openly said this. AGet is a semi mechanical Elliott package and deals specifically with type 1 and type 2 setups such that the computer based wavecounts are to be used in conjuction with displaced MA's, 5-35 oscillator, PT Index and Channeling lines.
These trades are fine, but I found they are few and to far in between. Also AGet falls over in that there is too much emphasis on completing impulses (5 wave termination) and very little in terms of finding potential wave 3's. Tom Joseph created the "breakout bands" function for this but it's lousy.

I quickly discarded the wavecounts and these days I just use AGet as a whiteboard and marker. I prefer to use software that has the flexibility to be able to write code, so that I can create the tools I need to compliment the EW background. Such packagas are Amibroker, Wealthlab, XLAnalyzer, and MS to name a few. 

As Magdoran has previously said, the best computer is the one in between your ears.

AGet misses out too many important nuances in my opinion. I beleive if you want to really get a handle on the market, then you have to trade in the 3 dimensions:-

Price
Pattern
Time

Each of these requires much study and reaearch in their own right.

I spent a hell of a lot of time as many others do on the pattern and price aspects but it wasn't enough for the sort of trading I wanted to perform. The timing element is crucial IMO. It's probably the hardest to nut out as well.

For the market to make a new high, it's not impossible as the market will do what it will, but the tools we use and have at our disposal say it's a low probability from here.

Cheers


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Waves.
What your saying makes complete sense.

I can also see that the stups you mention dont require perfect accuracy.
I'm sure Ill find exactly as you have.I dont expect AGET to be "The Answer" and agree with Moggi's statement.
However for me at least I'm hoping it will help me in pattern,time and price
education.

My intention is to use it in conjunction with other analysis VSA and conventional analysis,I'm sure youve been there---any comment?

My feeling is the results would be relative to trader competency,not only in analysis but trade management.

For those who had very little knowledge GET would be like giving a Jumbo jet to a "P" plate driver. There is much they wouldnt or couldnt recognise and could be very dangerous.(To the Wallet).

Its not the way to profit although watching the intro DVD some would believe its time to mortgage the house!------its just another tool.
The Fake bar stochastic for example simply draws a line while the price remains in a trend and forces the trader to use Stochastic AS IT SHOULD be used---with the trend.

All part of the education.
Appreciate your comments.


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## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Waves.
> 
> My intention is to use it in conjunction with other analysis VSA and conventional analysis,I'm sure youve been there---any comment?




Tech,

Never touched VSA. Hopefully will one day when I get time which is rare these days. But have more than enough to get through in the next 2 years. I am sure it can compliment and become an integral part. 

The market magnitude fluctuations are going to pick up in the coming months, not good for the buy and holders and they will be pulling their hair out. But will be profitable for the traders who get the timing right. 

Cheers


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## coyotte

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

dosn't this boil down to the hierarchy of time frame of charts ?

As both Wavepicker and Mag pointed out when i queried this about Aget's recent labeling of the XJO  .
 Both came back with the standard answer for all T/A -- : Weekly - Daily - Intraday .

But for general overall use of EW for us mere mortals I thought Kauri's post No86  in the Elliott Wave thread hit the nail on the head --- this post whilst not anywhere near the most lavish about EW on this site , for me is by fair the most useful -this I can employ NOW and incorporate into " Pattern Trading " methods  


Cheers


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## ducati916

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact *not be the top*.
> 
> *The evidence is in technical form.* Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.
> 
> I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.
> 
> Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!
> 
> *Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!*




So where's the evidence?
Please don't say this hopped up hindsight, change the count after the fact software package is the evidence.

jog on
d998


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*Duc.*

The Evidence is exactly where the evidence is that indicates that my above posts maybe incorrect.

If you cant see either/accept or even wish to attempt to understand------fine.There was a time that my skepticism far outweighed that which you carry.

That which I present is not meant to influence anyone it is purely analysis ( Voodoo) as I see it.

As we seem to currently have 2 polarised views (Other than those who dont have one---or dont care too) A top of significance has been reached and will not be breached for sometime and now --Perhaps it may not be the top of significance.

Frankly I dont care if in your eyes its utter rubbish.

*Rubbish* is a legitimate form of analysis

Real
Understanding of
Basic
Bull**it 
In
Sufficient
Hindsite.

Ive been doing very well over the years trading Absolute Rubbish. Which is of course the more advanced form. Takes years to master.

*Stirs up discussion.*

*Coyotte.*
I agree with Kauri.
This is what I have in mind with Elliot.
You have the opportunity to view "Where you are " in the context of the trade.Where its been and where its likely to go.
Traded with other analysis gives greater probability in my view.
When its all boiled down its just numbers again---


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Duc.*
> 
> The Evidence is exactly where the evidence is that indicates that my above posts maybe incorrect.
> 
> If you cant see either/accept or even wish to attempt to understand------fine.There was a time that my skepticism far outweighed that which you carry.
> 
> That which I present is not meant to influence anyone it is purely analysis ( Voodoo) as I see it.
> 
> As we seem to currently have 2 polarised views (Other than those who dont have one---or dont care too) A top of significance has been reached and will not be breached for sometime and now --Perhaps it may not be the top of significance.
> 
> Frankly I dont care if in your eyes its utter rubbish.
> 
> *Rubbish* is a legitimate form of analysis
> 
> Real
> Understanding of
> Basic
> Bull**it
> In
> Sufficient
> Hindsite.
> 
> Ive been doing very well over the years trading Absolute Rubbish. Which is of course the more advanced form. Takes years to master.
> 
> *Stirs up discussion.*
> 
> *Coyotte.*
> I agree with Kauri.
> This is what I have in mind with Elliot.
> You have the opportunity to view "Where you are " in the context of the trade.Where its been and where its likely to go.
> Traded with other analysis gives greater probability in my view.
> When its all boiled down its just numbers again---




Tech, one function that AGet has, is it allows you too look at charts inverted. Although initally this may sound strange, it adds another perspective to looking at the charts. Especially when all we have focused on is a bull drive in the last 4 years and we are so used to seeing that.
I have numbered this chart, but the rising MACD in comparison to the overall fall in price on the chart(or I should say actual rise in price!!) as well as a break above the offset average and trend channel, is probably more along the lines of the semi mechanical EW approach Tom Joseph promotes to use with AGet. Although the computer generated wave labelling is cr.p, so I have put in my own interpretation, which is probably along mre with the spirit of the EWP. The giveway is the *type of pattern * in wave 4 that the move that followed this pattern was *terminal.* The only and hardest question was the timing element for the completion

Generally after an impulse finishes generally it's a guideline that the entire correction finishes at the "span of the previous 4th wave" OR only the first leg of the correction finishes or finds support there(ie wave A). Given that the long term third wave started in 1987, I will let you do the sums as to where this *might* end. But we should not even bother looking that far in advance just yet(as it may well not turn out that way due to future market patterns saying otherwise)  Just taking it move by move is hard enough. Not gonna fully stick my neck out here, but it's quite plausible that 3rd wave(of lower degree than the reds) will follow this first move down from all the high. Usually we get what I call a "mirror image foldback" pattern back to the base of the 4th wave.

Take a look at post #543, these charts have similar patterns (apart from the ED in ZFX)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2971&page=28&pp=20



Cheers


----------



## ducati916

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*tech/a*

So what you are presenting is your opinion. That's fine. I have absolutely no problem with opinion.

I was simply expecting some evidence. Now I can let my breath out.

jog on
d998


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Hmmm, one thing's for sure Tech - you're bound to be right with one of your two opposing viewpoints of late, viz viewpoint 1: market won't reach 6,000 again in a long time or viewpoint 2: this isn't the market top.

Why the sudden need to prognosticate furiously?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> Why the sudden need to prognosticate furiously?



I actually think this has been going on for some time Michael. I did notice an earlier post of yours being critical of those attempting to chart the XAO during this correction. I think you will find this analysis has been going on for some time, not just because of the correction. And, it's been going on as a point of interest and learning tool in the use of T/A and particularly EW. Many have benefited from it I think, and will be able to apply this knowledge to assist in their investment decisions.

(please note the XAO analysis thread started in Oct 06)


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I actually think this has been going on for some time Michael. I did notice an earlier post of yours being critical of those attempting to chart the XAO during this correction. I think you will find this analysis has been going on for some time, not just because of the correction. And, it's been going on as a point of interest and learning tool in the use of T/A and particularly EW. Many have benefited from it I think, and will be able to apply this knowledge to assist in their investment decisions.
> 
> (please note the XAO analysis thread started in Oct 06)




You will find that if there is in fact a bear campaign at some stage:

-most market participants will quickly become disinterested and forget about the market, especially as most will lose $$
-the ones that stick it out and persevere will become more interested in alternate methods other than fundemental such as TA and Charting.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> Hmmm, one thing's for sure Tech - you're bound to be right with one of your two opposing viewpoints of late, viz viewpoint 1: market won't reach 6,000 again in a long time or viewpoint 2: this isn't the market top.




As there are various ways to analyse the Market and as this particular view hadnt been voiced---thought Id bring it up.

Adds to discussion.
Gets some people thinking.
Is interesting to watch how things pan out.



> Why the sudden need to prognosticate furiously




Dont know that its a need.
But as I saw it---thought it interesting---so thought I'd share.

Seems that voicing various views is seen by some as 
Indecision
Confusion
Procrastination

Rather than
Possiblity.
Thought provoking
Forward planning (what if scenarios).

Hell without an enquiring mind how on earth does one grow, accumulate knowledge or learn from successes and mistakes?

Seems to be a lot of selected reading by some.

This is my point.

*The above is purely a WHAT IF---its hypothetical---it is NOT PROVEN.

CURRENT analysis presented by Elliot wave practitioners IS CURRENTLY PROVEN and until price action PROVES the CURRENT analysis to be incorrect it must be presumed to be correct.*

The basic roots of analysis Fundamental/Technical or any other in my view.


----------



## lesm

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Dont know that its a need.
> But as I saw it---thought it interesting---so thought I'd share.
> 
> Seems that voicing various views is seen by some as
> Indecision
> Confusion
> Procrastination
> 
> Rather than
> Possiblity.
> Thought provoking
> Forward planning (what if scenario's).
> 
> Hell without an enquiring mind how on earth does one grow,accumulate knowledge or learn from successes and mistakes?
> 
> Seems to be a lot of selected reading by some.
> 
> This is my point.
> 
> *The above is purely a WHAT IF---its hypothetical---it is NOT PROVEN
> 
> CURRENT analysis presented by Elliot wave practitioners IS CURRENTLY PROVEN and until price action PROVES the CURRENT analysis to be incorrect it must be presumed to be correct.*
> 
> The basic roots of analysis Fundamental/Technical or any other in my veiw.



If this is only a correction then there is nothing to say that tech/a's view/opinion is any more valid or invalid than anyone elses. Only time will tell, as we watch the market activity unfold into the future. Looking at things with an open mind doesn't hurt.

If everyone thought the same way, the world would be dull and boring.

When the majority of people form a particular view of the market, it can sometimes be an indicator that the market is setting up to do the opposite. Being contarian can be profitable.

If a new higher top is formed then the question would arise as to whether it will be short-lived or not.

As tech/a as observed there is a a lot of selected reading and people have picked up on a particular school of thought or approach. This appears to limit their view as to how they perceive the market.

If you go back to the old classics, it is interesting the overlap of approaches that were developed and used, which some people are either unaware of, aren't understood, or are only just starting to learn. There are people who work at using, combining and/or refining these approaches to improve their approach to trading.

Even in EW if you read the original works of RN Elliot as presented by Prechter, or Neely and the Neely extensions or Miner and his approach. As an aside Neely has an interesting approach to charting and how to represent EWs.

You can even identify the original approaches and the overlaps of Gann's, Livermore's, Miner's  work and that of others, covering the areas of cycles, including time and price projection.

An enquiring mind is needed to grow and develop knowledge and skills. Staying within the domain of the flock (sheep/crowd), is really the domain of the underachiever whether it is related to trading or other pursuits.

If tech/a is right people will call him a hero/guru, if he is wrong mmm...that will be interesting. But, at least he is prepared to present his opinion.

If people don't agree then present the counter argument.

Cheers.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				lesm said:
			
		

> An enquiring mind is needed to grow and develop knowledge and skills. Staying within the domain of the flock (sheep/crowd), is really the domain of the underachiever whether it is related to trading or other pursuits.
> 
> If tech/a is right people will call him a hero/guru, if he is wrong mmm...that will be interesting. But, at least he is prepared to present his opinion.




100% agree with your first statement.

My only comment on people being prepared to put forward their opinions is with regards to psychology.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but tech/a does not currently have any open positions against the XJO.  If you have open positions and you're making predictions and you go out in the world and start to argue those opinions...then you must have rock solid psychology.  Trading is largely an individual endeavour.  ALL of my best trades have been when the only person who knew I was in them was me.


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				lesm said:
			
		

> If people don't agree then present the counter argument.



My argument is simply that prediction is completely unnecessary and in fact downright harmful to one's trading expectancy.

To me, I see that various schools of technical and fundamental analysis come in and out of favour simply because they happen to fit the events of the last few weeks/months. When they stop fitting, they are discarded and the next holy grail is sought.

You don't need to be right all the time to be profitable, just to be able to skew the risk:reward in your favour, and analysis isn't the key to this, it's trade management after you've entered - cutting the losses short and letting the winners run.


----------



## dhukka

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> Hmmm, one thing's for sure Tech - you're bound to be right with one of your two opposing viewpoints of late, viz viewpoint 1: market won't reach 6,000 again in a long time or viewpoint 2: this isn't the market top.
> 
> Why the sudden need to prognosticate furiously?




Exactly, the classic technical (I use the word technical loosely as it is more akin reading tea leaves) analyst's reasoning: If something doesn't happen, then something else will. How can you ever be wrong? 

Tech/a has stated before that his trading strategy relies upon a rising market. Is it suprising then to see him come up with evidence to support the continuance of a bull market?


----------



## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> My argument is simply that prediction is completely unnecessary and in fact downright harmful to one's trading expectancy.
> 
> To me, I see that various schools of technical and fundamental analysis come in and out of favour simply because they happen to fit the events of the last few weeks/months. When they stop fitting, they are discarded and the next holy grail is sought.
> 
> You don't need to be right all the time to be profitable, just to be able to skew the risk:reward in your favour, and analysis isn't the key to this, it's trade management after you've entered - cutting the losses short and letting the winners run.




I agree with what your saying, but systems trading is not for every1.
Though i do personally believe its the easiest way to trade - and possibly the most profitable - ed seykota trades purely mechanical and has returned 60%pa over the last 20-odd years - Buffet i think closer to 30%pa.


----------



## lesm

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> My argument is simply that prediction is completely unnecessary and in fact downright harmful to one's trading expectancy.



Michael,

I agree with you with respect to prediction being unnecessary. Ignoring a lot of the noise on a forum and accepting it for what it is should have no impact on anyone's trading.

This kind of market tends to bring a lot of predictions out, another forum that I frequent has made a similar observation.

People are just being people, no more - no less.

Cheers,
Les.

PS: Good to see you post the WMT trade. Looked like it may have been a good learning experience


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> systems trading is not for every1.
> Though i do personally believe its the easiest way to trade



I'm not sure I agree with this. I think it's probably the hardest way to trade since it requires you to remove your emotions from the trading process. We as humans find this extremely difficult to do, since it is our natural tendency to think we "know better" than our trading plan. All is fine whilst a bull run is on, but then when the market changes, all of a sudden we want to override our carefully constructed and tested plan.

Trading emotionally is in my view why most traders fail - they experience initial success in a bull market by grabbing profits quickly and hanging on to losers and never get beyond this. When a bear market comes, they are wiped out.


			
				lesm said:
			
		

> People are just being people, no more - no less.



Indeed, which is why I'm pushing the psychology barrow harder and harder to try and understand the reasons behind this observed behaviour.


----------



## coyotte

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Maybe the "horror of horrors".

If the EW Monthly & Weekly disagree then is there a possibility that the XJO is NOT  in a EW pattern at all !!!!   

But I don't know where the NEW "evidence" came from, as this " evidence" was pointed out earlier in the week --- it was old hat by the time Tech found it.


Cheers


----------



## lesm

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Could be worth mentioning then that Wave 5 CAN be the longest and this has a tendency to occur in futures markets and on *stock indices.*
> 
> rule:
> "The maximum movement of Wave 5 is six times Wave 3 in both price and time."
> 
> guideline:
> "Wave 5 will usually move beyond the end of Wave 3."




Unless a fifth wave failure occurs and that could signal the beginning of a potential bear market.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Found the following 'opinion-analysis' on the London Stock Exchange, and like Tech/a's hypothetical, we don't have a time frame for the next possible 'top'. 

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/...tcommentary/schwartzlatest/currentarticle.htm

[excerpt]
written 6th March 2007 (after the 1st dip & before the second dip)

_Which point of view should we trust in? History offers this objective perspective. [...]

Since 1980, there were 64 short-term declines of at least five per cent. . In other words, short-term sell-offs occur much more often than most investors would guess. The length of time between the end of one short-term correction and the start of the next is a little over three months, on average 

Even during bull markets the gap between the completion of one correction and the start of the next is about five months, on average.

Viewed from this angle, there is nothing very special about the suddenness of the current down-turn, despite the headlines. February 19 marked the completion of a slightly longer-than-average rally that had been running since the last big sell-off ended in mid-June 2006. History tells us the current sell-off was a bit overdue.

History also teaches that sell-offs like the current one typically occur in a bull market. Let us put a little flesh on this issue. 

There were 26 occasions in the last few decades when a healthy sell-off occurred after a lengthy rally like the one that ended on February. A bull market continued after 25 of these 26 brief sell-offs. 

We all know that our stock market is affected by forces outside of our control in places like New York, China, the Middle-East. *Even so, past trends hint that the current bull market is not yet over.*

*On the other hand, history also warns us to be cautious during the next month or so. * It is not common knowledge but the average short-term decline in the last quarter-century ran for 32 days.

Just seven of the 64 (or11 per cent) ended within 10 days. 

No guarantees of course but the historical odds suggest there is more downside to come before this sell-off runs its course.

Looking further into the future, history warns us to monitor the length of time that the next rally runs. Short bounce-back rallies can be an important warning sign that the bull market is over.

By way of example, there were 16 occasions since 1980 when a sell-off like the one we are currently in was followed by a bounce-back rally that ended within 20 trading days. All but two of them were associated with a bear market.

Viewed from this perspective, the length of the next rally is worth monitoring very carefully._

Remember, written 6th March ....


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Here's a thought - what if we are in a period where all the various flavours of TA don't work (as well as before in a trending market), and the markets are lurching up & down on the whim of daily events ie TA systems are in limbo. I found that the further you go into a particular TA system the more confused you get when the market is not trending. This is evident in the somewhat polarised views here.

Daily events now seem to be making a mockery out of TA as I'm sure you'll agree that unless you have some extraordinary powers of seeing into the future none of us know with any certainty what tomorrow will bring.

Maybe it's a period where it's better to trade the fact (fundamentals) & try not to pedict the future (TA)?.

As to the thread, I think the majority are still bullish eg "good buying opportunity; the market always goes up in the long term etc etc". Personally I have my doubts, but unless China has a meltdown and/or super money suddenly  vanishes then the Oz market still has some life left. The US is another matter....


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Here's a thought - what if we are in a period where all the various flavours of TA don't work (as well as before in a trending market), and the markets are lurching up & down on the whim of daily events ie TA systems are in limbo. I found that the further you go into a particular TA system the more confused you get when the market is not trending. This is evident in the somewhat polarised views here.
> 
> Daily events now seem to be making a mockery out of TA as I'm sure you'll agree that unless you have some extraordinary powers of seeing into the future none of us know with any certainty what tomorrow will bring.
> 
> Maybe it's a period where it's better to trade the fact (fundamentals) & try not to pedict the future (TA)?.
> 
> As to the thread, I think the majority are still bullish eg "good buying opportunity; the market always goes up in the long term etc etc". Personally I have my doubts, but unless China has a meltdown and/or super money suddenly  vanishes then the Oz market still has some life left. The US is another matter....





Doom.
Your reply is one which is often echoed by those who have little understanding of technical analysis and even less knowledge as to CORRECT application of that analysis.
There are certain forms of technical analysis which has a forward projection aspect to it.
However projection of price isnt/shouldnt be the primary objective of technical analysis.Even novive Technical analysts are frustrated by the market dynamics which will alter analysis from day to day.
Here application of analysis becomes important---many have a basic knowledge but FEW have the knowledge to apply technical studies to their trading---in a way which will help them toward CONSISTANT profit.

To make the riddle even worse. Its NOT THE ANALYSIS---technical OR Fundamental which will ensure/maximise or bring consistency to trading profits.

From a fundumantal veiw Duc's exercise has shown that even an experienced fundamental practitioner can get the valuations of companies he invests in up to 50% of the "Value" of a good buy! WRONG.

Every form of analysis is right until PROVEN wrong---thats the way to trade ALL analysis---but you must have a point in which you can un catagorically say---ITS WRONG.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Here's a thought - what if we are in a period where all the various flavours of TA don't work (as well as before in a trending market), and the markets are lurching up & down on the whim of daily events ie TA systems are in limbo. I found that the further you go into a particular TA system the more confused you get when the market is not trending. This is evident in the somewhat polarised views here.
> 
> Daily events now seem to be making a mockery out of TA as I'm sure you'll agree that unless you have some extraordinary powers of seeing into the future none of us know with any certainty what tomorrow will bring.




Sorry Dr Doom but this seems extremely facile, and how can you post this after everything else that precedes you in this argument? It verges on silly....


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Sorry Dr Doom but this seems extremely facile, and how can you post this after everything else that precedes you in this argument? It verges on silly....




The crux of T/A should be relatively simple (IMO).  People over complicate it (once again IMO) because it makes them feel more in control, or some such.  Doom raises a valid question...and in consideration of the fact that corrective moves are the mosts difficult to count using EW it's even more valid in the context of this thread.  At what point do you step back and say, 'the volatility and noise here is too extreme to make trading a trend practical'.  Even Tech/a hiimself re-posted from another forum comments from an experienced system trader who advised that when price is below the short M/A yet still above the long, you are in essentially non-trading territory and you should not trade your signals...at least that is how I interpretted that post.

On the XAO (not the XJO, but near enuff) I use a 40-day SMA as my short and a 200-day SMA as my long.  Price has been aggressively shifting back and forth across the 40-day SMA for over a week now.  To my mind it's really in that, 'I'm going to chew you up and spit you out mode'.  Any trade taken ATM is higher risk, by my estimation.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

So is TA telling you to buy or sell now?. What *is* it telling you? How are you trading the market today, tomorrow next month?.

I was merely questioning the effectiveness of TA in *this* market, when even those who follow it are divided in what it is telling them. Not having a go at TA, just thinking that sometimes you may have to step back and have a look at the forest instead of the trees.

Atomic, we can discuss *all* opinions can't we, without denegrading/belittling an alternative view?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Any trade taken ATM is higher risk, by my estimation.




You mean Gorilla, that any analysis atm has a higher probability of being wrong....the risk should be the same?

Cheers,


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

My technical analysis says this...the medium and longer term trend on the XAO is still up.  I unloaded a single position from my medium term portfolio (BEN) a couple of weeks back because my stoploss was hit.  I didn't want to sell, but as tech/a suggested, he didn't think I'd regret it going forward and looking at the price action of the last few days, I don't.  A plan is a plan is a plan.

Short term my technical analysis says go short.  And so I have...my bets are placed.  If I'm wrong, I'll take it on the chin.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> You mean Gorilla, that any analysis atm has a higher probability of being wrong....the risk should be the same?
> 
> Cheers,




Yes.  That is a better way of putting it.

You might actually get the direction of the market right...probabilities suggest to me that the market is going to move down further before it does anything else...but still get shaken out of your trades due to the volatility...and that sucks.  It means you are going to chew through money (slippage, brokerage) just trying to get a trade to stick.  So whilst each trade should continue to have the same fractional position sized %age risk exposure, the likelihood of getting shaken lose, then being forced to try and re-enter is high.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*ASX* 



> Even Tech/a hiimself re-posted from another forum comments from an experienced system trader who advised that when price is below the short M/A yet still above the long, you are in essentially non-trading territory and you should not trade your signals...at least that is how I interpretted that post.




I did? I visit 2 forums here and Reefcap.
Sounds like a comment from Stevo,or even Jose,not me.The above can be a condition of entry to a system of course.

*Doom*

Two things.
For my longterm Portfolio's systems (3) the analysis has NO effect only the "blueprint" of the system designed around analysis.

Short term discretionary trading--I have one position JML its up slightly and telling me that its OK to hold.

Generally its telling me its a time of indecision.However if a trade presents itself I'll eveluate then on an individual basis.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> I did? I visit 2 forums here and Reefcap.
> Sounds like a comment from Stevo,or even Jose,not me.The above can be a condition of entry to a system of course.




It was a brilliant post, which is why I remember:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6210&postcount=65 

"First figure out the trend. There are several ways to do this
and they're all easy. On a weekly chart you can use a 10 and 40
week moving average. When the index of choice is above the 10 week
moving average the market is in an uptrend. *When the index is in
between the 10 and 40 week moving average, it's whipping around,
consolidating, and screwing you out of money. That's what it's doing
in there.* When it's below the 40 week moving average it's in a down
trend. That's the easiest way to define things."

This combined with the fact that corrective moves are more difficult to count make this a really tough (and/or stupid) time to be taking trades.  In anycase, my bets are placed.


----------



## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Yeh i remember reading that post it was GOLD!


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Ah yes.---too good to be one of my original posts.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

For a slightly different, albeit possibly clearer wave count...the Small Ordinaries.

Looks ominous...the correction may already be _over_.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Looks ominous...the correction may already be _over_.




Ominous and over? Is that good or bad?


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Ominous and over? Is that good or bad?




Depends...are you long or short?


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Long I think.
Particular stocks ....

What do you mean by your chart is the question?  
I'm not a chart person ... obviously.


----------



## Julia

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> My technical analysis says this...the medium and longer term trend on the XAO is still up.  I unloaded a single position from my medium term portfolio (BEN) a couple of weeks back because my stoploss was hit.  I didn't want to sell, but as tech/a suggested, he didn't think I'd regret it going forward and looking at the price action of the last few days, I don't.  A plan is a plan is a plan.




Gorilla,

Do you really feel good today about having unloaded BEN with its price rise today???

Julia


----------



## macca

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Aww, Julia don't be cruel..........................


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*Thats all part of trading.*
There is no Fundamental Or technical method that will indicate the possibility of a take over.
If your going to buy and hold then you have a chance that you will be holding when and if something like this arises.

As in the case I went through with you Julia sometime ago.
Given the information AT THE TIME decisions are made.


----------



## reece55

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Thats all part of trading.*
> There is no Fundamental Or technical method that will indicate the possibility of a take over.
> If your going to buy and hold then you have a chance that you will be holding when and if something like this arises.
> 
> As in the case I went through with you Julia sometime ago.
> Given the information AT THE TIME decisions are made.




Completely agree with Tech/a here........

ASXG, even though you missed out on todays premium and you are probably thinking of how sweet it would have been to have that gain.......

To me, the implementation of a thorough plan, if you are a technical trader, is the only way to succeed in the long run. So whilst it lost you money in the short term, long term following this plan will hold you in good stead in the long run. I remember doing this with Qantas pre the M?BL et al bid - I kick myself, but it was in accordance with my trading plan. I mean I had those things at 3.37!!!! Ahhhhh.....

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Gorilla,
> 
> Do you really feel good today about having unloaded BEN with its price rise today???
> 
> Julia




Horrible situation to be in 

I doubled my position at confirmation of the higher low back in early Feb too.  It's one of those trades...if I hadn't been shaken loose, it would have been a glorious 'home run'.  I'd be sitting here now, knowing that any drawdown situation I WAS experiencing due to this pull back on the XJO/XAO had since been offset by one single unpredictable event   

Thanks for the support ALL.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

ASX

*BUGGA!!*


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Do you really feel good today about having unloaded BEN with its price rise today???



That's trading. Preservation of capital is the first goal, not profits. The profits come as a result of good trading, not as a result of chance events.

I wonder how fundamentalists would feel about holding MBP on 21-Feb-2007 when the technical indicators were all pointing to a prompt exit stage left for some time before?

I know whose pain would be worse...


----------



## wayneL

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Horrible situation to be in
> 
> I doubled my position at confirmation of the higher low back in early Feb too.  It's one of those trades...if I hadn't been shaken loose, it would have been a glorious 'home run'.  I'd be sitting here now, knowing that any drawdown situation I WAS experiencing due to this pull back on the XJO/XAO had since been offset by one single unpredictable event
> 
> Thanks for the support ALL.



We remember the ones we missed more than the ones we caught


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Tech/a

great to see you made this topic as i became positive about the market just after the sell off.

i am now very bullish medium term, just hanging around and waiting for confirmation to reopen long positions over the xjo, i mostly look at a weekly chart, watch the lead up on the daily. However on the daily it still looks weak, even though it is in a short term rise.

I need a confirmation on the weekly to sell it to me.

great to see you and Tom Scollon are positive, but he did screw up big time on his crude out look in the other month he said 80$ and it went to $55  

that's the market for you!

I am reading more and more doom in the US economy wonder what effect and how quickly that could pressure things on our market??


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Well I'm hardly bullish.
Just pointing out some "Counter Intelligence".
To me *nothing has altered from the Analysis * which says *we are in a corrective phase.* If I was trading short term  I'd be short (Having closed JML today).

Other than my Longterm portfolio which is long---I'm letting that play out,thats what its designed for.

As Waves has poined out experience in these patterns and the way they play out tells him from his analysis that all is normal for a corrective move---a long one.

Note the Volume today was VERY low.*No buying pressure here!!*
The first chart is a VSA chart also note the amount of Negative alerts Red triangles and rectangles---this is a background of strong negative sentiment---proven by the negative nature of volume and range.*Its a warning not to be overlooked.*




This chart is a combination of analysis overlaid with that which we are watching. It really is setting up for something and from what *I CURRENTLY * see its not looking biased toward a continuation---but that *COULD* alter.





Waves Metastock inverts charts as well and agree it can have a great effect on someone like me who is predominantly long---I would ask--Would I buy this?? my answer would be---not yet.(From the inverted chart).


----------



## Sean K

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Tech, Ref the second chart, why can't it be a corrective 3 wave ABC? SK


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Kennas it could be.


----------



## Julia

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Horrible situation to be in
> 
> I doubled my position at confirmation of the higher low back in early Feb too.  It's one of those trades...if I hadn't been shaken loose, it would have been a glorious 'home run'.  I'd be sitting here now, knowing that any drawdown situation I WAS experiencing due to this pull back on the XJO/XAO had since been offset by one single unpredictable event
> 
> Thanks for the support ALL.



Gorilla,
Sorry, it* was*  a bit unkind.  I'm genuinely sorry you missed this  bonus.

It just seems to me that you techies often rubbish the buy and hold investors and repeatedly insist on sticking to your tight stop losses.
I'm not knocking that approach - hell, I know nothing about short term trading (my one attempt was a dismal failure) - but sometimes it's good to see an example where the simple buy and hold of *quality companies*  can be seen to pay off in something more than just the unspectacular but steady growth, plus consistent dividends.

My apologies for the apparent gloating:  I suspect it was largely due to relief at today's news, after thinking I'd made a mistake in adding to my holding recently.

Julia


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> It just seems to me that you techies often rubbish the buy and hold investors and repeatedly insist on sticking to your tight stop losses.
> I'm not knocking that approach - hell, I know nothing about short term trading (my one attempt was a dismal failure) - but sometimes it's good to see an example where the simple buy and hold of *quality companies*  can be seen to pay off in something more than just the unspectacular but steady growth, plus consistent dividends.



Julia,

Yes, buy and hold does make money. It does this, however, by exploiting the overall upwards bias of the market (given a large enough time frame), not by way of the fundamental analysis before entry. Technical traders definitely unfairly disparage buy and hold, probably because of a need to justify activity which adds very little value.

However, using a stop loss whilst trading technically allows more sophisticated money management to be applied - the combination of letting one's winners run, cutting one's losses short and the resultant compounding of capital this allows makes money more effectively than buy and hold. The cost of this is lots of small losses along the way to greater wealth at the end of the game. It takes enormous conviction to engage the market this way as your entire being keeps screaming at you to do exactly the wrong thing.

It's purely and simply tilting the mathematics of engaging the market further in your favour that makes the money, not the method by which this tilting is achieved.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Gorilla,
> Sorry, it* was*  a bit unkind.  I'm genuinely sorry you missed this  bonus.




It's okay.  As I said to you in PM, I'm glad someone I know got to benefit.  

Another value investing friend who had it on his radar never got a look in because even with the post Feb-28 weakness it still never reached his "good value" price.

In anycase, I find it hard to believe that BoQ hasn't had this on the cards for quite some time already.  Whether they brought the announcement forward to capitalise on the share going ex-div and the shenanigans of Feb 28 I'll never know.

Got any other takeover/merger plays up your sleeve?  PM me


----------



## Julia

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Thats all part of trading.*
> There is no Fundamental Or technical method that will indicate the possibility of a take over.
> If your going to buy and hold then you have a chance that you will be holding when and if something like this arises.
> 
> As in the case I went through with you Julia sometime ago.
> Given the information AT THE TIME decisions are made.




I imagine you are referring to either SUN or ZFX.
In both cases, I sold because I moved my focus from the long term to the short term, or ignored the fundamentals which hadn't changed in the case of ZFX.
In both cases, I regretted it by the next day, and still do, as both went on to new highs.

Julia


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Are you still in them Julia?


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> For a slightly different, albeit possibly clearer wave count...the Small Ordinaries.
> 
> Looks ominous...the correction may already be _over_.




Are the small cap miners taking a bit of a hit? The Small Cap All Ord indice is up but most small cap miners seem weak and volumes are low. Big miners doing well though and probably driving the market.


----------



## Julia

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Are you still in them Julia?



No.

Julia


----------



## IFocus

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> So is TA telling you to buy or sell now?. What is it telling you? How are you trading the market today, tomorrow next month?.



Hi Doom
It can be confusing even for those that use some form of TA when the market changes its mood. Traders that use TA are trying to time the market and the key is always what’s your time frame and how applicable is to the market now / today. Ether stand aside or trade a different time frame but this takes skill and I have seen good traders get sucked into missing the change.


Back to the cash index and today’s XJO bar was interesting, I am still thinking its a correction although I time stopped out of my short position today I don’t currently hold longs will stand aside until the picture offers another low risk opportunity.

This is my current take


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				IFocus said:
			
		

> Hi Doom
> It can be confusing even for those that use some form of TA when the market changes its mood. Traders that use TA are trying to time the market and the key is always what’s your time frame and how applicable is to the market now / today. Ether stand aside or trade a different time frame but this takes skill and I have seen good traders get sucked into missing the change.
> 
> 
> Back to the cash index and today’s XJO bar was interesting, I am still thinking its a correction although I time stopped out of my short position today I don’t currently hold longs will stand aside until the picture offers another low risk opportunity.
> 
> This is my current take




Hello IFocus,
I guess the point I was trying to emphasize was that some markets, like this one, can turn on a knife edge & a strict adherence to TA could compromise firstly our positions & secondly our trading mantra. Anyway, each to their own.

With the XJO, I'm thinking that it was a very ordinary performance today even though it ended green. The initial surge failed to consolidate numerous times &  every advance was squashed especially the 2.30 customary bounce. Have a look at CBA intraday for a complete lack of confidence. Looking like the US is the key again tonight for the housing starts figure.

DD


----------



## motorway

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Hello IFocus,
> I guess the point I was trying to emphasize was that some markets, like this one, can turn on a knife edge & a strict adherence to TA could compromise firstly our positions & secondly our trading mantra.  Anyway, each to their own.
> 
> With the XJO, I'm thinking that it was a very ordinary performance today even though it ended green. The initial surge failed to consolidate numerous times &  every advance was squashed especially the 2.30 customary bounce. Have a look at CBA intraday for a complete lack of confidence. Looking like the US is the key again tonight for the housing starts figure.
> 
> DD






What TA and Whose TA...
Prices form trends that are made up of waves

Waves last as they long as they gather a following..
Trends themselves unfold in their own time

Time = a process  Time does not equal a slice of a clock..
All days are not equal ( all slices of time are not as important )

trends speed up and slow down... TIME speeds up and slows down

A cause that will produce an effect takes as long as it takes ..

The old fashioned ticker would ram this point home

I understand that the climatic day in 1987 contained a very broad top
As in time = activity

Nothing compared to the climatic day this time around

Prices travel in WAVES  and waves have nothing to do with days or weeks
But actual activity..

If you are not in the time frame of the trend at that moment
It maybe looks like a Knifes edge

What you need is a chart that changes it's time frame with the speed of the trend ... Maybe then there are no discontinuities..  Only;

effort  producing result

cause generating effect

demand overcoming and being overcome by  supply

and waves generating and dispersing

Markets are a Dynamic process
If you produce a still life static picture

If you overlay a static model

If you chart the process in days and weeks ..

Then you have to keep that limitation in mind



motorway


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Ah thank you Master Po

Grasshopper


----------



## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> *To the EVIDENCE.*
> 
> But firstly some background which gave rise to the evidence.
> Over the years Elliot Wave keeps re occuring as a major form of analysis when looking forward---Ive yet to see another presented (perhaps other than  Frankee D's work).
> There are and can be varying wave counts from practitioners with these counts all obeying the "Rules", this can also--probably more so--happen within Elliot Software.
> Its extremely difficult for most to get their head around the way wave counts change and why---Beyond this discussion--but pertinent to the evidence.
> 
> *If traders can accept the "Prove---disprove---prove---disprove" aspect * of ALL analysis, explanation of the above becomes a lot clearer--I think.---not how and why but that it can and will. Only time will prove--or disprove the analysis---any analysis, even fundamental analysis.
> 
> The latest Edition of Advanced GET rolled up last week, it was during my investigation of the software that I found the following and "The Evidence".
> 
> Firstly GET labels all highest highs with a wave count---if the price moves up next day so does the wave count--retracements or corrective patterns/waves arent labelled until a complete A,B,C is confirmed.
> No problems thats the dynamic nature of the Analysis.
> GET also only labels 300 bars so some higher degree analysis will not be accurate as they take longer than 300 periods to complete---GET will "Make it fit"
> 
> To the XJO.
> There is a COMPLETE count on the *Weekly XJO chart * showing a 5 wave completion in 3 degrees. 5 of 5 of 5
> A culmination of many years and important I believe to this.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *GET's Daily count * has it in a wave 4 corrective phase. With a wave 5 to come.
> If The weekly is correct (Yes I know you dont mix time frames) BUT with a 5-5-5 completion you'd expect the daily to confirm.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So what if a wave 5 did occur what would happen to the weekly count.
> Basically very little all wave 5s would simply extend---wave count remains the same. Here are the possible projected wave 5 completions:
> 
> *WEEKLY*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *DAILY*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Back to the daily. Most wave 5s come from triangle patterns--currently we seem to have a triangle pattern emerging in this corrective phase.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For the current 5 wave pattern to fail we would need the wave 4 to extend lower than the top of wave 1 in the same degree---unlikley.
> 
> *The above is purely a WHAT IF---its hypothetical---it is NOT PROVEN*
> 
> *CURRENT analysis presented by Elliot wave practitioners IS CURRENTLY PROVEN and until price action PROVES the CURRENT analysis to be incorrect it must be presumed to be correct.*
> 
> Authorised by a Duck! Educational purposes only.





If we see new highs, this could play out. Certainly seems to agree with the bullish sentiment at the moment IMO.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Well the initial analysis has now been proven as incorrect.
As such the analysis suggested as a possible alternative now is proven and until disproven holds the technical veiw using Elliot Analysis.

Still a very slight chance of a double top should give it a few points "Wiggle" room.
Almost have both legs over the fence!!


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

The silence on this thread is deafening.

Where are all the Duck shooters?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> The silence on this thread is deafening.
> 
> Where are all the Duck shooters?




I thought that there was a moratorium on duck season in the east this year apart from Tassie    
I haven't got the oxygen and mountaineering boots back on yet, but have got them ready. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more bungie type volatility before it settles down. Good call Tech.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> The silence on this thread is deafening.
> 
> Where are all the Duck shooters?




Ha ha ha

That is very funny Tech, thumbs up on the pic!


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> The silence on this thread is deafening.
> 
> Where are all the Duck shooters?



What is it that you seek?


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



MichaelD said:


> What is it that you seek?




Market takes a dive.
This thread 96 posts.
Panic thread 443 posts
XAO thread 99 posts.

Market makes a new high when only a month ago this was the end of the world as we know it.
Last time we will see 6000 for over 5 yrs.
Possible fall to 4700 odd.
People rushing to be first to have "Predicted" the top.

Since then.
This thread 4 posts
Panic thread 1 post.
AXO thread 1 post.

Deathly silence---why is that?
Sure on a personal level the Duck was a nutter.
Right out of left field (mind you thats fine by me).
Duck presented an alternate view---ridiculed when presenting evidence.

Iam glad to have been able to prove the importance of this in analysis a point which the vast majority cannot and do not grasp.



> *The above is purely a WHAT IF---its hypothetical---it is NOT PROVEN
> 
> CURRENT analysis presented by Elliot wave practitioners IS CURRENTLY PROVEN and until price action PROVES the CURRENT analysis to be incorrect it must be presumed to be correct*.




As this is a valuable lesson to be learnt in *ALL* forms of analysis.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

I would be interested in seeing your analysis again, but with the more current price action. Incidently did you looks at Nick's XJO review tonite?

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

My targets.Again I'm just learning this stuff.Others will have measurements derived from different points to mine.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Cool 

Thanks T/A.

Cheers,


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> As this is a valuable lesson to be learnt in *ALL* forms of analysis.



Indeed. The point being that the analysis does not make the profit and it only provides probabilities (in my view no better than a coin toss and thus of limited worth but others will disagree).

My personal view (which I don't make trading decisions upon) is that since everyone's now declaring the current correction as over and the bull to have returned...perhaps that's a very good contrarian indicator of an imminent really big correction going into and beyond the Easter break.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Tech,

I think people have been quiet for a reason. I thought the silence was obvious.

How is the software performing? Is that Prechter style on your chart?


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*Snake.*

No its my own labelling.
Different to GET's and others I have seen.

*Michael*

Remember this when complete will be a full wave 5 of 5 of 5.
Which will be a very important top.
The Bears will have their day I'm sure.

Software.
A very long story but in essence yes.
But have found much! re the use and application of the software.
Both GET and Tradeguider---the former which continues to impress.

Remember its the application of the analysis---well in my view--Proven OR
Disproven


----------



## MichaelD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Remember its the application of the analysis



Yes, it's the application.

(I take it that TradeGuider isn't living up to its early promise).


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Hmm Sorry Michael.
I actually meant the latter---Tradeguider.
GET is also very good but has in my view nuences which must be understood to get the most out of the software.

Combined they are very powerful.
In the Castle of knowledge ("the Chartist") been following MRE with both software's and had a great run.
Still learning both which opens new doors the more you learn how to best apply the software to trading.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

No matter what you guys post about your waves *now* I was still calling long, 1- 1.5 weeks till now, after the china sell off!

So sorry tech and others I am not convinced as I remember when I was making money off longs you were all calling short.

Sorry to sound like a I told ya so.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Trade_It said:


> No matter what you guys post about your waves *now* I was still calling long, 1- 1.5 weeks till now, after the china sell off!
> 
> So sorry tech and others I am not convinced as I remember when I was making money off longs you were all calling short.
> 
> Sorry to sound like a I told ya so.




I'm stunned at the gains this market has made....not game to go short or long on the ASX200!


----------



## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Trade_It said:


> No matter what you guys post about your waves *now* I was still calling long, 1- 1.5 weeks till now, after the china sell off!
> 
> So sorry tech and others I am not convinced as I remember when I was making money off longs you were all calling short.
> 
> Sorry to sound like a I told ya so.




?? ??
Im sure many of us have made plenty but is there a need for a comment like this?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



nizar said:


> ?? ??
> Im sure many of us have made plenty but is there a need for a comment like this?




Could be that we'll look back and think that TI was irrationally exuberant. You just never know, but i'm still very bearish about this market.....NOT that it should matter to the current trading opportunities.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



nizar said:


> ?? ??
> Im sure many of us have made plenty but is there a need for a comment like this?




Nizar,

I am not going to make a big thing out of this but read back at my posts.

I just find it funny to read the happiness and positiveness in the posts lately when the time to be making your long plays has already come a while back in my opinion.

I have had longs going since the second drop that confirmed that a new push was happening.

Now it was a little silly to post that but I could not resist when others where telling me I was over bullish, when i could see it, as clear as day!

Cant I have a little fun in the sun????

Now, I am with CanOz, on the side of a little more caution now.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> So sorry tech and others I am not convinced




What makes you think I'm here to convince you or anyone.

The possibility presented itself on 16th march--actually the 14th by the time I posted it up.
Didnt see Trade_it  jumping out of cyberspace supporting the veiw.

There are some clever people around this board---they are easy to pick.


*CanOz
*

Me to ---this will bring up the completion of wave 5 of 5 of 5 in a number of degrees which will be a very important top.The current target is around those mentioned---if taken out another will be calculated.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> What makes you think I'm here to convince you or anyone.
> 
> The possibility presented itself on 16th march--actually the 14th by the time I posted it up.
> Didnt see Trade_it  jumping out of cyberspace supporting the veiw.
> 
> There are some clever people around this board---they are easy to pick.
> 
> 
> *CanOz
> *
> 
> Me to ---this will bring up the completion of wave 5 of 5 of 5 in a number of degrees which will be a very important top.The current target is around those mentioned---if taken out another will be calculated.




Very well said Tech,

I am just glad you made this topic.

Now wonder who can pick the next top any takers??


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> The possibility presented itself on 16th march--actually the 14th by the time I posted it up.
> Didnt see Trade_it jumping out of cyberspace supporting the veiw.




Tech I read though your posts on the 14th u posted a target of 5506 and 5662 wrong way buddy.

Around the 16th you started this thread.

What you said to my call of being bullish was "well i'm hardly bullish" - Tech/A

You also said I was over bullish.

So from reading your posts in those dates I cant see you making any bullish calls quite the opposite.

Correct me if I am wrong & I know u will.

Peace out.


----------



## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Trade_It said:


> Tech I read though your posts on the 14th u posted a target of 5506 and 5662 wrong way buddy.
> 
> Around the 16th you started this thread.
> 
> What you said to my call of being bullish was "well i'm hardly bullish" - Tech/A
> 
> You also said I was over bullish.
> 
> So from reading your posts in those dates I cant see you making any bullish calls quite the opposite.
> 
> Correct me if I am wrong & I know u will.
> 
> Peace out.




Please, please, get over yourself.

Yeh tech will get a few calls wrong once here and there, but overall he COLLECTS, and thats the main thing, have a look at techtrader performance you may learn a few things.

Alternatively, you can just sit there toasting yourself.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*Trade_it.*

Any analysis can only be interpreted with what we have at the time,until of course that analysis is proven to be correct or incorrect. At that time I wasnt bullish---there was a possibility this wasnt over ---but there was strong evidence that it was---so yes I was hardly bullish.

Prior to posting the idea that the analysis given by others (well before me) and that which I had also looked at on the bearish side,all projections toward a possible low ( by everyone) were possible---until proven in correct.

In post 28 here I posted analysis which was presented as an alternative to the analysis already presented---including mine. Have a read and you'll see how I interpret and now trade dynamic analysis.
The price targets I have set are my own---others will come up with other dates ( I cant calculate dates like others do) and targets--some may confirm.
Again these will be targets and dates that may alter as they are Proven or Disproven.

Sorry to have upset you.
I notice your doing well in currencies.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



nizar said:


> Please, please, get over yourself.
> 
> Yeh tech will get a few calls wrong once here and there, but overall he COLLECTS, and thats the main thing, have a look at techtrader performance you may learn a few things.
> 
> Alternatively, you can just sit there toasting yourself.




Nizar 
Great post buddy good to see your keeping the forums in line.

And there is no need to jump to techs defense like that, he is very capable of taking care of himself.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> *Trade_it.*
> 
> Any analysis can only be interpreted with what we have at the time,until of course that analysis is proven to be correct or incorrect. At that time I wasnt bullish---there was a possibility this wasnt over ---but there was strong evidence that it was---so yes I was hardly bullish.
> 
> Prior to posting the idea that the analysis given by others (well before me) and that which I had also looked at on the bearish side,all projections toward a possible low ( by everyone) were possible---until proven in correct.
> 
> In post 28 here I posted analysis which was presented as an alternative to the analysis already presented---including mine. Have a read and you'll see how I interpret and now trade dynamic analysis.
> The price targets I have set are my own---others will come up with other dates ( I cant calculate dates like others do) and targets--some may confirm.
> Again these will be targets and dates that may alter as they are Proven or Disproven.
> 
> Sorry to have upset you.
> I notice your doing well in currencies.




Tech,

I was not really upset just a little interested in the chart you posted and yeh I was being a smart ass.

When you came at me with the look at my post and see for your self reply It did make me act a little silly after what comments you made about my direction. I am not trying to prove I am better, as I am not.

Just, I like people to post the whole story when they have been telling others that they could be wrong.

Tech dont get me wrong, I love your straight up posting style and the info you post. That's why I knew you would not mind me coming straight at you. 

Yeh, Aussie dollar is doing well and it looks like it's forming a flag on the 3 month 4 hour chart. I am looking to add to it.

Regards
Joseph


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Trade_It said:


> Tech,
> 
> I was not really upset just a little interested in the chart you posted and yeh I was being a smart ass.
> 
> When you came at me with the look at my post and see for your self reply It did make me act a little silly after what comments you made about my direction. I am not trying to prove I am better, as I am not.
> 
> Just, I like people to post the whole story when they have been telling others that they could be wrong.
> 
> Tech dont get me wrong, I love your straight up posting style and the info you post. That's why I knew you would not mind me coming straight at you.
> 
> Yeh, Aussie dollar is doing well and it looks like it's forming a flag on the 3 month 4 hour chart. I am looking to add to it.
> 
> Regards
> Joseph




No problems Joseph---at least it seems we can be straight----shot straight---and remain focused.
Dont mind a challenge provided that challenge is constructive and doesnt resort to personal slangs---when it gets to that obviously the ammo has been expended!! (not implicating yourself here).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> No problems Joseph---at least it seems we can be straight----shot straight---and remain focused.
> Dont mind a challenge provided that challenge is constructive and doesnt resort to personal slangs---when it gets to that obviously the ammo has been expended!! (not implicating yourself here).




Tech,

Great post, totally agree with you.

That is a big thing, being able to be straight with each other, with out personal attacks being felt or made.

But in future I will tone down the ego in my replies.

Regards
Joseph


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Well tonight my analysis tells me tomorrow is likely to see prices *begin* to retreat. I think today has made a near term high.

I'm still favoring 6400-6440 as the final target at this point for this important final culmination.

Seems to match up to Frankee's Market dynamics techniques.
I'm using Get (Wave analysis) and Tradeguider (Volume Spread Analysis) for signals and Manually for Possible wave projections.


----------



## BBand

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Hi Tech,
I'm not into Elliot, I still cannot really make much sense of it - but I have not given up hope, I admire those traders who can use it to their advantage - one of these days hopefully it might "click" for me also.
Same with Franks Market Dynamics, its way beyond me - but again I have an open mind and am still persevereing.

Gee its hard for an old dog to learn new tricks.

Anyway, going back to the old school -----

I think there is a good chance that we may have seen the top for this move, at best the XJO may just meander sideways for a period of time

If we are of the opinion that it may infact fall, then using Fib retracement we have a couple of bands of confluence:

ie 6128/6119 and 6024/6029

Isn't it great to think that we have some sort of control over the market,  however it does tend to give us a false sense of accomplishment - that nice cosy feeling that we think we know what should happen


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

BB,As you well know we have no control.
However we have tools which can be used to give us atleast a guide to where price is likely to go.
Often I dont agree with AGET's wave counts but for the XJO both the Daily and the Weekly are as I would label them so here are some charts for those interested.
You'll also note there is confluence at the 6680 ish level as well.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

So, wave 5 is finished Tech? May finish in May?  

Does AGET, give you a ABC down? Or more?


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Kennas.

According to get the XJO has reached its MOB target---(make or break).
That doesnt mean its over ---but if you were trading a type 1 buy trade then that trade would have been signalled over.

I have 2 possible areas for completion I like.



> You'll also note there is confluence at the 6680 ish level as well.




*And *


----------



## AndyMc

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

I'm all new to this and was mucking around with XJO.. 

I did some system testing and made this chart back from 2nd March 2007 using Elliot Wave. As you can see it turned out nicely.


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



AndyMc said:


> I'm all new to this and was mucking around with XJO..
> 
> I did some system testing and made this chart back from 2nd March 2007 using Elliot Wave. As you can see it turned out nicely.



Indeed, using Hubb’s “Profitsource” no less with the range projector switched on.

This illustrates the technique of using time extensions in concert with price extensions from pivots. This approach is a bulwark of many technical analysis approaches.

It is uncanny sometimes how the Fibonacci based projections from Profitsource (via the “range projector”) and Advanced GET’s MOB (Make or break) can do fairly well even for a mechanical based system.

But just be careful though, the algorithms for the type 1 & 2 buy/sell indicators for both packages are based on an underlying moving average and pivot system, hence they can get these very wrong unless you know how to use them effectively.  The Elliott Wave systems on these often do not conform to many of the generally accepted Elliott rules, and are designed to give projections in specific situations.  See the XAO analysis thread for more detailed comments on this made by wavepicker.

Incidentally wavepicker and I have been using Advanced GET for years, and are apprised of the pit falls of using this approach, and have both used GET essentially as a white board since the drawing tools are easy to use, and the MOB on occasion is a nice quick reference tool for general projections on the fly, but not for detailed accurate work for trade planning.

“Profitsource” was Hubb’s answer to GET, and incorporated much of the functionality that e-Signal was not willing to build for “Optionetics” – especially the “pre-computed” scans.  The range projector added the concept of the “e-bot” to validate a trade which was an enhancement since some of GET’s projections used a concept called the “PTI” (Profit Taking Index) in a wave 4 trade.  

Personally I don’t use this approach since I found it essentially hit and miss, probably due to some extent because the process is based on a formula and is essentially mechanical.  But as mechanical systems go, I thought it worked OK for newbies and amateur intermediate players who don’t want to learn charting or concepts such as Elliott Wave theory in depth, and learn to count for themselves and interpret the charts in more detail.



Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Magdoran said:


> Indeed, using Hubb’s “Profitsource” no less with the range projector switched on.



*Errata:*

Incidentally, re-reading the last paragraph could be interpreted as being pejorative towards people who choose to use the MOB/Range Projector type 1 & 2 Buy/Sell approach.  This wasn’t my intention at all, but was a dead pan appraisal of what is involved in terms of time and effort required.

I see using this kind of mechanical approach as a perfectly valid choice if one prefers not to spend significant amounts of time learning detailed technical approaches and trailing and refining these (often for years).  I fully recognise many people don’t want to do this, and would prefer to spend their time doing something else (some of us get a kick out of technical analysis and spend gargantuan amounts of time that is considered by many to be “unhealthy” hahaha – “guilty as charged your honour”).

Mag


----------



## AndyMc

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Being as inexperienced as I am, system testing is part of my approach to learning.. I certainly wouldn't be trading based of a pre-scan and hope for the best.. I understand Elliott Wave's are an advanced analysis method and probably wont be learning about it for quite some time.. get the basics right first. 

I'm only paper trading atm (I did buy a small amount of WMT just recently) until I refine my technique and knowledge.

Beating newbies down is a technique to increase forum stock? :


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



AndyMc said:


> Being as inexperienced as I am, system testing is part of my approach to learning.. I certainly wouldn't be trading based of a pre-scan and hope for the best.. I understand Elliott Wave's are an advanced analysis method and probably wont be learning about it for quite some time.. get the basics right first.
> 
> I'm only paper trading atm (I did buy a small amount of WMT just recently) until I refine my technique and knowledge.
> 
> Beating newbies down is a technique to increase forum stock? :



Hello Andy,


Welcome to ASF by the way!

Interestingly I note you put out a request recently for where to look for trading resources; you’ll find a diversity of approaches to technical analysis here, just look in the “Trading Strategies/Systems area, and maybe in the derivatives area if you are interested in looking at alternative instruments and index followers.

For discussions on texts try these threads:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3751

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4122

In your case, a lot depends on whether you feel more in tune with looking at charts and using technical analysis techniques or not.  Have a look at the above threads, and you’ll note a few well versed technical players make some comments for you to consider.

There are a range of schools to choose from, and the way you develop will depend a lot on how you start.  If you want my detailed view on this process, I have made a range of posts on the subject, and use the conceptual approach of teaching music as an analogy.  

I firmly believe that future capacity is in part dependant on the early stages of development in order to allow the most fluid capacity to improvise and use the creative side of the mind.  This is a controversial and polemical area, hence my suggestion is to fully read through the discussions, ask questions, and then proceed in the directions you feel most comfortable in.

As for “beating newbies down”, I did add the second post to clarify my first post… I recognised how you generated your chart, and thought I’d comment on it for the benefit of all the readers.

I suspect you may have recently gone through one of Hubb’s courses; hence the comments may be of benefit to you.  Have fun reading through the various threads; there have been some really interesting discussions for aspiring traders over the last couple of years to draw from.


Best Regards


Magdoran
P.S. Actually I would suggest either getting Prechter and Frosts book on EW if you want to really learn this material, or at least read Nick Radge’s book “Adaptive Analysis” for a primer. – assuming you want to move to being a chartist of course.  Also some of the texts I suggest in those links may be of interest too.  Mag


----------



## Kauri

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

My count varies a little from most (knowing myself as I do I am hardly surprised   ). On my count 6134 needs to be taken out before I rule out a possible extended fractal of W5... the alt count would need the 5917 W1 high to be broken.... 
  Regardless I have taken most of my trades off the table as I am in the last couple of weeks of selling my house and moving... so not enough time to devote to trading for the next 3 weeks or so... good luck to all..  

   Cheers
............Kauri.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Kauri said:


> Regardless I have taken most of my trades off the table as I am in the last couple of weeks of selling my house and moving... so not enough time to devote to trading for the next 3 weeks or so... good luck to all..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri.





All the best for youre move Kauri  

Cheers


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Last week looked a little ominous. (XJO) broke out of a rising wedge pattern. Profitsource charting has labelled the current wave as a wave three count, however I would think this is more like a wave 5. Will need to break 6134 for the current uptrend to be technically finished (higher highs/lows), so still looks ok from that perspective.

There are worrying aspects to the chart however. Not only has it broken through the short term uptrend support, but the RSI is displaying some big negative divergence with price, which I find to be generally a good indicator. It does not indicate when however, it just shows that the current move up is weakening. I have possible retracement levels at a best case scenario of 6100, however if it falls a lttle more, lower targets at 6013 and I seriously doubt a fall back to around the 200 day EMA currently at 5720.


----------



## reece55

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Lachlan6 said:


> Last week looked a little ominous. (XJO) broke out of a rising wedge pattern. Profitsource charting has labelled the current wave as a wave three count, however I would think this is more like a wave 5. Will need to break 6134 for the current uptrend to be technically finished (higher highs/lows), so still looks ok from that perspective.
> 
> There are worrying aspects to the chart however. Not only has it broken through the short term uptrend support, but the RSI is displaying some big negative divergence with price, which I find to be generally a good indicator. It does not indicate when however, it just shows that the current move up is weakening. I have possible retracement levels at a best case scenario of 6100, however if it falls a lttle more, lower targets at 6013 and I seriously doubt a fall back to around the 200 day EMA currently at 5720.




Lachlan, this is true  -XJO is looking ominous....... The divergence on the chart has been there for a while and the break out of the broadening wedge pattern clearly occurred on Friday ...... The only moderately bullish element was the buying that happened late in day......

The comments from Bernake in the US highlighting the clear bubble market in China seem to hit world markets fairly hard..... I think we will see a move back to support @ about 6,100, but I don't dismiss a move in mid/late June to break that high established on our Rio Tinto madness day.....

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

The XAO has moved ahead of the XJO... by about 20 points odd. Not much in itself but quite rare?? Would this suggest that the XAO is being driven by the dangerous smaller spec end of town with all the risk inherent with that, with perhaps a move back to the more solid XJO due... or possibly  that the bigger end of town is already quietly moving out.... or even that that last glass of Bushmills was one too many???


----------



## reece55

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Kauri said:


> or possibly  that the bigger end of town is already quietly moving out....




Interesting you say that Kauri, the Packers have reportedly undertaken a complete reshuffle of their stock portfolios, which included the disposal of a large stake in MBL...... There are a lot of people holding speculative stocks, specifically mining stocks that will end up being the ghost company's after this boom, and I think this is causing the disparity between XAO and XJO...... Being an accountant working for these small mining companies, all I can say is the money is all to easy to raise at the moment........ 

Another interesting article I note is this one on MBL:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chanos-highlights-macquarie-short-trade/story.aspx?guid=%7BB6B00508-B5AF-42CC-9F8D-5C1B43A9038C%7D

Jim Chanos, the man that successfully predicted the demise of Enron, says that MBL is a dead set short selling op....... I thought that at about 82.00 however, and it got all the way to 96.......

Personally, I am cautious of placing longs ATM. My wave analysis on WOW (a key component of the index) shows dark clouds and BHP is stuck in a range...... All in all, I would be cautious this week......

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Well I reckon its pretty damned close to the top.

If it doesnt *blast* through 6440 and capitulates from here (Which could well happen if the US reacts to the Chinese market like I think it will.
The Chinese Govt looks like letting it fall on its own weight.

Tommorow will be fun.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Well I reckon its pretty damned close to the top.
> 
> If it doesnt *blast* through 6440 and capitulates from here (Which could well happen if the US reacts to the Chinese market like I think it will.
> The Chinese Govt looks like letting it fall on its own weight.
> 
> Tommorow will be fun.




Tech good points.

I also with held from any long positions today after seeing it jumping around and not accepting 6400 with any real determination. Would have been a much better case if it could have at least made 6400 on the close.

Agree with you, Chinese gov are letting the fast money chasers learn the hard way that markets move in both ways.

Tonight will be interesting on wall st. wonder what they make of China's weakness.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

XJO made 6428 today and is within 6 points of My Wave extensions.

Anyway I didnt sell my Longs and Didnt load up on Shorts either.
Happened to just check the analysis and read a few News items.

Seemed to make sence to me.

If it goes off this time I think it will be deeper than the Last fall and likely to be sustained.
*All analytic speculation yet to be proven.*

Check out the Volume and Ranges in the Consolidation.
Really looks like distribution.
Todays high is un convincing.Low volume wide range.


----------



## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Tommorow will be fun.




Why is 2mrw going to be fun ?

Admittedly, you said you didnt sell your longs and didnt load up shorts.

So that means, if you are right, you will lose money.

Is losing money fun? 

Dont fall into the trap where being right is more important/fun than making money, i would expect more from a guru who cleans up the market and who has 12 years+ experience   

And please dont reply back saying im a beginner.

Im a beginner, amaetur, novices, which ever way you put it. And im More than happy to admit that.


----------



## WaySolid

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

SYCOM is at 6381 as I type so nothing exciting is happening yet.

I for one would be very grateful if there was a flight to bricks and mortar from equities sometime soon.. that would be nice. Just from a purely selfish pov.

The volume being traded in the Chinese markets is huge, larger than Japan even.   Hard to know how shake ups there will move other markets. I have read the Chinese people have 4 trillion sitting in banks earning negative real returns.. so that's a lot of gunpowder looking for a use.

I live in a working class suburb and my neighbour who is a great guy and who works at the local factory recently offered me two share tips at the same time as telling me about how he had been to one of those very reputable free options trading courses *cough*. 

One punter I know who was bearish at the 05 market lows is now a believer in 7000 or higher.. so if my radar is on target then sentiment is pretty high at the moment.

Markets do go down don't they? Since I started trading in March 05 I'm not sure I believe that.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



nizar said:


> Why is 2mrw going to be fun ?
> 
> Admittedly, you said you didnt sell your longs and didnt load up shorts.
> 
> So that means, if you are right, you will lose money.
> 
> Is losing money fun?
> 
> Dont fall into the trap where being right is more important/fun than making money, i would expect more from a guru who cleans up the market and who has 12 years+ experience
> 
> And please dont reply back saying im a beginner.
> 
> Im a beginner, amaetur, novices, which ever way you put it. And im More than happy to admit that.




*Get a grip.*


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Well not a murmur from the US.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Well not a murmur from the US.




Down is UP to them, remember.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> Is losing money fun?




There are 2 types of Money losses.

(1) Losses from Initial capital.
This can occur when you start a methodology.
Until you begin to close profitable trades.
If however you are continually drawing on Starting Capital then there is something wrong with your business plan.

(2) Losses from drawdown.
This is simply part of conducting business.
You'll constantly have peak to valley drawdowns. At times considerable.

All businesses suffer from this Month to Month.

Analysis is there fundamental or technical to act as as the catalyst for decision making if a discretionary trader and as the Plan for Systems traders who have a blue print of expectancy which is the final decision making tool.

Both the Analysis for the discretionary trader and the blueprint for the Systems trader will determine course of action.

If proven Correct---continue.
If proven incorrect---cease.


----------



## constable

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Well not a murmur from the US.




World markets arent desperatley looking for an excuse this time around perhaps and there is possiblly a greater feeling of relief that china has actually done something about their spiralling market. That's my basic interpretation anyways!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Well not a murmur from the US.




   I think that the rest of the world realises this time around that the decline in China in no way threatens their underlying economy, that the bosses over there are gently deflating the speculative balloon.. good for the world economy if it is done gently. I imagine the State run media will try to keep it under control by printing the right stories. If it starts inflating again I guess they can mention another increase in tax, or even a cap gains tax... maybe even take a shot at property??? Just my thoughts...


----------



## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> There are 2 types of Money losses.
> 
> (1) Losses from Initial capital.
> This can occur when you start a methodology.
> Until you begin to close profitable trades.
> If however you are continually drawing on Starting Capital then there is something wrong with your business plan.
> 
> (2) Losses from drawdown.
> This is simply part of conducting business.
> You'll constantly have peak to valley drawdowns. At times considerable.
> 
> All businesses suffer from this Month to Month.
> 
> Analysis is there fundamental or technical to act as as the catalyst for decision making if a discretionary trader and as the Plan for Systems traders who have a blue print of expectancy which is the final decision making tool.
> 
> Both the Analysis for the discretionary trader and the blueprint for the Systems trader will determine course of action.
> 
> If proven Correct---continue.
> If proven incorrect---cease.




Thanks for that bro.
Great response.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

6226 now critical in this.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



nizar said:


> Why is 2mrw going to be fun ?
> 
> Admittedly, you said you didnt sell your longs and didnt load up shorts.
> 
> So that means, if you are right, you will lose money.
> 
> Is losing money fun?




Heard of the saying, if you don't laugh you'll cry  ??


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> Heard of the saying, if you don't laugh you'll cry  ??




Sarcasm,excellent one of my favorites.

Confirmation for me will be below 6226.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Kauri said:


> The XAO has moved ahead of the XJO... by about 20 points odd. Not much in itself but quite rare?? Would this suggest that the XAO is being driven by the dangerous smaller spec end of town with all the risk inherent with that, with perhaps a move back to the more solid XJO due... or possibly  that the bigger end of town is already quietly moving out.... or even that that last glass of Bushmills was one too many???




  Has now gone out now by 30 points odd.... if it is a quiet move out by the large end of town I wonder when/if it will get noisy???  :dance:


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Kauri.
The big end of town are already heavily involved.
Take a look at the past 3 days up thrusts.
Each rise obviously met by heavy selling (supply).
I wouldnt expect today to be a great deal different.
Unless we start seeing rises with very little supply coming in this down move is likely to be well supported for sometime.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

If there is a panic sell off there appears nothing on this weekly chart of xjo to prevent a fibonnaci retracement of 38% to 5000., where it was in sept oct 06

Garpal


----------



## Kauri

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Kauri.
> The big end of town are already heavily involved.
> Take a look at the past 3 days up thrusts.
> Each rise obviously met by heavy selling (supply).
> I wouldnt expect today to be a great deal different.
> Unless we start seeing rises with very little supply coming in this down move is likely to be well supported for sometime.




  Tech. 
         Yes, the market seems to be changing its spots... a whiles ago the trend could be looked at on a weekly basis (along with its inevitable corrections)... now it seems to be more a daily thing, swinging wildly to each individual piece of news.. last nights large rally in the U.S. could quite easily reverse and then some if for example their inflation figures this week are interpreted as negative for the market. Meantime opportunities to trade are still there as always, I find my stops are a better indicator of the market than I am    .... 
        I like the easy to understand commentary that comes with TG.. good stuff!!!!
        Cheers
                 Kauri


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Next target from me 6880


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Next target from me 6880




Nice to see your projection tech and I was thinking around 6800 on the last fail on 6400 based on a measured move on the xjo.

Well I'm not complaining with your projection and it lines up with another wave users thoughts of 6800-6900, also I am long on the xjo 

Still have some resistance to beat but this 45 degree angle is proving very valid on this current price action.

Good trading.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Next target from me 6880




Tech 1 more q for u, on your projection target do u have a time frame for that? Not a day just a time point

Have taken profits on my long on xjo


----------



## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Trade_It said:


> Tech 1 more q for u, on your projection target do u have a time frame for that? Not a day just a time point
> 
> Have taken profits on my long on xjo




Looks like Wall St. will ruin it again for us.
Theres now some resistance building up at the 6450 level.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



nizar said:


> Looks like Wall St. will ruin it again for us.
> Theres now some resistance building up at the 6450 level.




Yeh saw that Nizar, watched the us futures paint a bleak picture for today on the st and maybe for us tomorrow.

That's why I took profits on my xjo long got to love the night session in that regard.

Hmmm I still got a csl cfd trade open that looks like fun with the wild build up in heath care sector today could see it raining sell orders tomorrow!


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Hmm.

Was looking for a clear break of 6440. Thought we had that.
Seems to be that we will go back into this range.

Trade it.
I dont use time so Until 6190 is taken out or 6880 is reached.I have no idea.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of *all* portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.

With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.

While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.

Not that anyone cares--


----------



## dj_420

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of *all* portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
> I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.
> 
> With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.
> 
> While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
> If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.
> 
> Not that anyone cares--




even your long term portfolio? 

i sold my short termers today, still holding my long term stocks.

taken fair bit of profit now, and have margin loan at the ready for leverage at the bottom if we see a correction


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Yes!! all.

The T/Trader portfolio will still be run live as it always has been on Reefcap so time will tell if my decision was wise. ( I traded a version of T/T myself.).
We will only close that portfolio if it trades out of the numbers given by the system.


----------



## billhill

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of all portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
> I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.
> 
> With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.
> 
> While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
> If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.
> 
> Not that anyone cares--




have to agree with you tech.
I am more worried than usual by this current sell off and think that there is reasonable probability that we could go lower. Although global fundamental remain good the warnings about the subprime in the US we've been hearing about for ages look like they really may affect the economy. A few more disapointing reports from US companies and it won't look good. Plus i'm not much of a techy but even i can see the current XJO chart is a mess. Lesson procede with extreme caution.


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Tech-a, the technical purists amongst us would say that that is a wise move. I mean just take one glance at our local market and there is NO denying, this looks weak. Interestingly, the correction in Feb/March this year, never fell beneath the 100 day EMA however this one has done so already, convincingly. The next level of support is interesting, as if this is only a correction (which I think it will be) then we have either of the 50% retracement level from the March lows, or the 200day EMA. If the 200 day EMA is breached, then we will have the beginnings of a much more serious downward movement. This 200 day EMA has been such a great level of support and that is why if this is broken, ah run for the hills.

However I don't think so. Market still not overly stretched, earnings looking relatively good. Depends a lot however on interest rates. Bottom lines will be affected. A real worrying sign though, is the level of that accumulation pattern from May to a few days ago. Very interesting times. Waiting and watching.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Lachlan6 said:


> Tech-a, the technical purists amongst us would say that that is a wise move. I mean just take one glance at our local market and there is NO denying, this looks weak. Interestingly, the correction in Feb/March this year, never fell beneath the 100 day EMA however this one has done so already, convincingly. The next level of support is interesting, as if this is only a correction (which I think it will be) then we have either of the 50% retracement level from the March lows, or the 200day EMA. If the 200 day EMA is breached, then we will have the beginnings of a much more serious downward movement. This 200 day EMA has been such a great level of support and that is why if this is broken, ah run for the hills.
> 
> However I don't think so. Market still not overly stretched, earnings looking relatively good. Depends a lot however on interest rates. Bottom lines will be affected. A real worrying sign though, is the level of that accumulation pattern from May to a few days ago. Very interesting times. Waiting and watching.




Lach

one reason it hit the ma with such ease is that the ma straightens and moves closer to the price once it bands for a while.

you see in the feb dip that it was way above it due to the strong trend.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of *all* portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
> I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.
> 
> With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.
> 
> While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
> If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.
> 
> Not that anyone cares--




Bold move tech. Hope it works out for you.

I'd be interested to see the analysis as to why you've done this. I'm gathering it's based off the EW work you've been doing?


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

I sold 5 out of 7 positions at open this morning.  Many went up and closed higher, but I was sleeping at the time so couldn't take that chance.  Depending on what the US does tonight I may close the other 2 at open on Monday to end up essentially where tech/a is.

My technical reasoning is along the lines of, "increased volatility, tighten stops".  In many of my positions trailing stops and price were converging over the last couple of months anyway...I've learned a lot and made a little in the last 4 years...I'm happy to step aside for the moment and reassess.

ASX.G


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Well for the first time since I started trading I have sold out of *all* portfolios. Once it was clear to me that 6170 would be breached.
> I only have some discretionary trades on the books.---3.
> 
> With 30th June over and done with I made a difficult decision.
> 
> While none of my systems show reason to exit I have taken the decision right or wrong---to maximise my open profit. I see far more downside to upside.
> If the latest high is taken out then I may reconsider buying all positions back.
> 
> Not that anyone cares--




Tech,

I am not in a postion to call a bottom to whats happening now, as markets love to reverse when you look there most vulnerable and doomed.

but with the current fundamentals and the simple fact we are at year 4 in a dynamic bull market.

I say to you on your decision to close out, well done. You have chosen to protect yourself there is nothing wrong with that.

and yes i tend to agree with you this does show more downside then upside right now.

I am sure if it reverses and shows the signs that it will make new highs you will be in it building your portfolio up.

Good trading Tech & Have a Good weekend


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Congatulations on a great number of long term trades Tech, there is nothing loke putting the $$ in the till.

Cheers


----------



## Gundini

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

I respect your position Tech and all who closed out today...

I have had 3 days of pain and was tempted to do the same thing.

But I have chosen to hold.  Sometimes you have to make a stand, and to be honest I don't feel very comfortable about it, but hold I do.

I must admit I would feel better if you guys were still in though, I have a lot of respect for your decisions, and in hindsight I may have followed suit.

What tipped me over was the 100 point recovery on the DOW last night towards the end of trade. 

In the lap of the Gods now... Wish me luck!


----------



## Captain_Chaza

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> I sold 5 out of 7 positions at open this morning.  Many went up and closed higher, but I was sleeping at the time so couldn't take that chance.  Depending on what the US does tonight I may close the other 2 at open on Monday to end up essentially where tech/a is.
> 
> My technical reasoning is along the lines of, "increased volatility, tighten stops".  In many of my positions trailing stops and price were converging over the last couple of months anyway...I've learned a lot and made a little in the last 4 years...I'm happy to step aside for the moment and reassess.
> 
> ASX.G





It would be nice to know which positions "DID NOT"  gap down horribly on the open?

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## motorway

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Here are some interesting observations
Some Historical

Something for those Interested in EW or not

motorway

http://www.tsaasf.org/images/stories/Articles/TradersWorld_43a_forte__2_[1].pdf




> Let’s address the China factor. In 1921,
> the U.S. and British stock markets registered
> important corrective lows. The U.S.
> market made an eight year hyperbolic run
> into the 1929 blow off while Britain only
> managed to reach its previous high (posted
> in 1900) as the industrial baton was being
> passed to the U.S. Similarly, as the U.S.
> passes the industrial baton to China, it
> is more likely that if any stock market
> extends hyperbolically into the 9th or 10th
> year of the decade, it will be China. The
> “new economy” index as represented by the
> Nasdaq, probably at best may double top.
> The S&P as of April, 2007 is approaching its
> old highs, but may struggle to move much
> beyond, if this British comparison holds up.
> The Dow industrials have been leading the
> market higher for good reason. Emerging
> market growth, especially China is pushing
> to build its infra-structure and has been
> demanding the capital goods of our industrial
> companies. This is pulling our markets
> higher. *It’s not about the U.S. anymore*.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



motorway said:


> Here are some interesting observations
> Some Historical
> 
> Something for those Interested in EW or not
> 
> motorway
> 
> http://www.tsaasf.org/images/stories/Articles/TradersWorld_43a_forte__2_[1].pdf




Excellent article Motorway, thankyou.

I was aware of chart #2 and it is very interesting to say the least. That is, individual wave structures measured in terms TIME in fibonacci years.  This is a good example to show that the market has order and it follows the natural laws that bind the universe together. Ofcourse the same fibonacci relationships are found within price, but IMO are more easily applied using time.

Other fibonacci numbers that can be relevant(but not mentioned in this article) are the "twins" of the natural fib numbers: 3+3 =6 5+5 = 10, 8+8=16, 13+13= 26 etc.....

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Captain_Chaza said:


> It would be nice to know which positions "DID NOT"  gap down horribly on the open?




They all gapped down..._horribly_ is a subjective term.  But unless you are short or waiting to be short no gap down can be contrued as a positive thing.

I was more or less waiting for this moment to reassess what I was doing anyhow.  In equities a purge of the portfolio from time to time can be a good thing


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> They all gapped down..._horribly_ is a subjective term.  But unless you are short or waiting to be short no gap down can be contrued as a positive thing.
> 
> I was more or less waiting for this moment to reassess what I was doing anyhow.  In equities a purge of the portfolio from time to time can be a good thing




I totally agree Mr Gorilla.

I copped a gaping wound today with ANZ. Total of 3 positions offloaded all together.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> I'd be interested to see the analysis as to why you've done this. I'm gathering it's based off the EW work you've been doing?




Initially from an Elliott Wave perspective see posts #127.
Secondly from an E/W perspective there are a few on the boards around here and there who I respect from their analysis skills and although they havent been absolutley specific they are very much favouring this as a top or very close to it.Their analysis has been confirming my own.

From a conventional analysis view.
It was/is obvious thet the 6170 level was support,Was tested once and held
Resistance was 6440ish which was tested many times but never convincingly challenged.
This topping patterned seemed to be held up by distribution.
Finally the decision was made on yesterdays bar.Very strong trading through support---as if it wasnt there.

Not to mention strong divergence in Price and Oscillator/s.The retests of the top were getting weaker and weaker.

(1) I watched price action all day and at times there was genuine buying--infact I saw reversals of selling 3 times---significantly.
However.
(2) This was met buy increased selling which eventually kept price below 6170 infact well below.
(3) The bar is a wide range Bar after 2 bars of reasonable range but as important the volume is increasing Friday was Very high.---So I wasnt alone.
Infact the real pros have been selling well before me!

From a Fundamental view.
Interest rates likely to rise.---due to inflation.
US looks like the credit mania is about to become unstuck.
AUD came off considerably.

I have 3 discretionary trades 2 Resourse and 1 BSG All  but one in the red but not dramatically.

I'm happy to watch and prepare for future trading.


----------



## Awesomandy

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Infact the real pros have been selling well before me!




That is very true. In fact, they've started offloading a few weeks earlier all over the world. Of course, I'm forbidden to say anything about that earlier (work confidentiality agreement), at least not before anyone has worked it out anyway - from the eventual correction which has just happened.

Now that the dow is down another 200 points, what I would suggest now is to grab your textbooks out, and look for fundamentally sound companies. With the increase of negative equity in the US and probably interest rate rises, there isn't any space for the weaker companies. Even after a crash of >10-20% (and I'm not saying that it will happen), the best stocks always bounce back relatively quickly, within 12-24 months.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

One of the things I watch is the relationship between the ASX200 (XJO) and the All Ords(XAO)... historically the XJO close has led the XAO by several points over 90% of the recent bull leg.... over the past few weeks the XJO has sold off to be consistently lower than the XAO, it's now around 45 points lower ... it suggests to me that the larger, better informed players who would  normally be invested primarily in the XJO constituents have been quietly selling off for a while now.... I'll watch with interest in the future to see if the eventual turn from this _correction/trend change?_ is accompanied by volume and a decreasing spread between the two.... 
  Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## CFD

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Nice one Kauri. 
Need a recovery necessarily start with xjo stocks?
Is it possible to get a chart of the axo with the xjo content removed?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Kauri said:


> One of the things I watch is the relationship between the ASX200 (XJO) and the All Ords(XAO)... historically the XJO close has led the XAO by several points over 90% of the recent bull leg.... over the past few weeks the XJO has sold off to be consistently lower than the XAO, it's now around 45 points lower ... it suggests to me that the larger, better informed players who would normally be invested primarily in the XJO constituents have been quietly selling off for a while now.... I'll watch with interest in the future to see if the eventual turn from this _correction/trend change?_ is accompanied by volume and a decreasing spread between the two....
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Kauri, I would even go one more level and compare the ASX20 with the XJO. I find, for daytrading, that this is where the market moving action is so it would be interesting to see how they compare also. I don't have acces to my charting program atm so only assuming it may shed some light as to possible ahead of the trend, trend?


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

On this topic of XJO, XAO, ASX20 etc. They're capitalisation weighted indexes, right? So the more correct statement might be that the top end leads the index...perhaps not the market.  Big moves in the top end RIO/BHP etc. moves the XAO/XJO the most due to market cap.  It takes less money 
flow to move the Small Ords, for example.  

Index moves on Friday (High low range):

Small Ords       3.00% 
ASX20            2.83%
XJO                2.81%
XAO               2.77% 
MidCap50        2.73%

I think that the top end was sold down heavily, particulary BHP and RIO, which is why the XJO was moved so much, and the SmallOrds moved most due to the fact that it takes less money flow to move those stocks, in either direction.  But if you want to see where the money has been escaping from, or at least not flowing into, check the MidCap50 chart.  No sideways here...lower highs and finally, capitulation.

Read into that what you will.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Breakdown each Index and you will slowly work out what a real farse they are1

I did it once !
That was enough for me!
I will not do it again !
Please DYOR
It is worth the time taken

The Trick/ Propaganda/Spin is what is included in each and then the weighting

I was truly shocked when I did this lengthy exercise

Salute and Gods Speed


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Wonderful Captain...the truth is out there...thanks for _not_ sharing it with us.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> On this topic of XJO, XAO, ASX20 etc. They're capitalisation weighted indexes, right? So the more correct statement might be that the top end leads the index...perhaps not the market.  Big moves in the top end RIO/BHP etc. moves the XAO/XJO the most due to market cap.  It takes less money
> flow to move the Small Ords, for example.
> 
> Index moves on Friday (High low range):
> 
> Small Ords       3.00%
> ASX20            2.83%
> XJO                2.81%
> XAO               2.77%
> MidCap50        2.73%
> 
> I think that the top end was sold down heavily, particulary BHP and RIO, which is why the XJO was moved so much, and the SmallOrds moved most due to the fact that it takes less money flow to move those stocks, in either direction.  But if you want to see where the money has been escaping from, or at least not flowing into, check the MidCap50 chart.  No sideways here...lower highs and finally, capitulation.
> 
> Read into that what you will.





Now on that chart ASX. does it tell us distribution was taking place as Insiders were leaving the seen & preparing to short?


----------



## Chief Wigam

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

I think this is similar to the Feb correction and healthy for the bull run to continue. Nothing fundamentally has changed. The US sub prime issue has been known for months.

Seems to me this is a technical correction only and too late to sell out now. So I am holding. Why give my potential profits to someone else. The smart money has sold out prior to this and will be buying in again once the dust settles.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Chief Wigam said:


> Nothing fundamentally has changed. The US sub prime issue has been known for months.



Better have a closer look.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Trade_It said:


> Now on that chart ASX. does it tell us distribution was taking place as Insiders were leaving the seen & preparing to short?




I think there were divergences within the market.  Namely the financials sector pulling back whilst the materials (particularly BHP and RIO) gave the appearance that the broader indexes (XAO/XJO) were range bound and trading sideways...even making new all-time-highs on the odd occasion.  Curiously though, if you look at volume since the beginning of the year an interesting story appears.  

Whilst index gains slowed in early May volume continue to swell in many sectors leading into June 30th, *this was particularly pronounced in the financials sector*.  But the financials peaked in May and never made another new all-time-high, unlike the broader index.  My conclusion is that canny players might have been taking advantage of the volume bouying the market to offload large positions.

Materials was and has been a different story.  Volume peaked into the March low and has been steadily subsiding since.  In other words, RIO has gone past $100 and BHP to almost $40 on what is essentially subsiding volume.  The Energy sector has shown a similar phenomena.  New all-time-highs, subsiding volume since the March lows.

My limited understanding of VSA suggests that this is bullish in itself.    Its also the reason why I still favour materials and energy and hold a position in each...but in the short term I don't think either will weather whats coming.  In the mid to long term though I dont think the story for the materials or energy sector will be changing and this is why I remain bullish for the market over that timeframe.

I see more signs than ever that this is a signficant point in the market.  Not only due to factors like the expanding flat that Wave Picker and the EW community identified.  The internals of the market (volume) and the timing of this drop are enough to convince me to stand aside for a while and reassess.  As WayneL has said, just another day for swingers...but that's not my style.


ASX.G


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Did you notice that from the days high on the DJIA to the days low was a 300point change of sentiment!


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Did you notice that from the days high on the DJIA to the days low was a 300point change of sentiment!




Yep...wide range and a close way down on the low.  I was watching TV just now and saw the UK was up 2.3%, Frankfurt 1.7% then DJIA down 1.1%...saw the chart and what do you know...lowest daily close on both DJIA and SPY since the beginning of May.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Time to evalute where we are.


----------



## krisbarry

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

stop being so dramatic...base metals are looking OK, and the aussie market will be protected from major falls over coming weeks due to the reporting season.

I think you may have made a big mistake by selling up your whole portfolio and are trying to justify a fall, but it ain't gonna happen.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Price has been held up by a significant support level on the SPY, 1455.  Over the last two days price activity on our market has looked alright.  Frankly I'm having a hard time evaluating where we are...calm before the real storm...or a return to normality?  Or maybe a _real_ sideways market.  Dunno, my jury is still out.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Stop_the_clock said:


> stop being so dramatic...base metals are looking OK, and the aussie market will be protected from major falls over coming weeks due to the reporting season.
> 
> I think you may have made a big mistake by selling up your whole portfolio and are trying to justify a fall, but it ain't gonna happen.




LOL

now that is the morning humor i look for. from a guy that thinks markets are random and have no clear direction or cycle!

Mate its buyers like your self that cuase it to sell off in panics after the intial drop. you and all your buddys buy into minor rallies and poor it out once it breaks again.

look at the facts STC the market is telling u something, don't listen to its message at your own expense. the dow closed under a very significant short term support line, there is another clue. Demands can drop very quickly, there is never certainty in the markets, ride the change with open arms, rejecting it will only prove costly. 

STC unless your a CFA, I would be careful in telling other members what they should and should not do with there money.

What a laugh!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> I think there were divergences within the market.  Namely the financials sector pulling back whilst the materials (particularly BHP and RIO) gave the appearance that the broader indexes (XAO/XJO) were range bound and trading sideways...even making new all-time-highs on the odd occasion.  Curiously though, if you look at volume since the beginning of the year an interesting story appears.
> 
> Whilst index gains slowed in early May volume continue to swell in many sectors leading into June 30th, *this was particularly pronounced in the financials sector*.  But the financials peaked in May and never made another new all-time-high, unlike the broader index.  My conclusion is that canny players might have been taking advantage of the volume bouying the market to offload large positions.
> 
> Materials was and has been a different story.  Volume peaked into the March low and has been steadily subsiding since.  In other words, RIO has gone past $100 and BHP to almost $40 on what is essentially subsiding volume.  The Energy sector has shown a similar phenomena.  New all-time-highs, subsiding volume since the March lows.
> 
> My limited understanding of VSA suggests that this is bullish in itself.    Its also the reason why I still favour materials and energy and hold a position in each...but in the short term I don't think either will weather whats coming.  In the mid to long term though I dont think the story for the materials or energy sector will be changing and this is why I remain bullish for the market over that timeframe.
> 
> I see more signs than ever that this is a signficant point in the market.  Not only due to factors like the expanding flat that Wave Picker and the EW community identified.  The internals of the market (volume) and the timing of this drop are enough to convince me to stand aside for a while and reassess.  As WayneL has said, just another day for swingers...but that's not my style.
> 
> 
> ASX.G




Great observations there ASX-G about the financials and Indices, cash flows related to the super rules, EFY etc?...about the materials, if we see increasing volume as prices rise to new highs then that would be bullish as we may surmise that demand is also increasing and that sellers are on the sidelines (unless we have wide ranging bars and low volume- supply has been taken out wholesale so prices rise freely)....haven't checked the charts yet but I'd say the materials are falling on high volume so sellers are about now- supply has entered in force. Will check the charts to confirm this, although warned of some sort of correction via the wave counts. 

Whether this is a multi year or a short term correction doesn't matter- it is a test of our trading strategy and psychology, that is how I'm looking at it. After studying and practising risk mgmt for months in skirmishes we now get to see how well prepared we are in a real battle!


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> I think you may have made a big mistake by selling up your whole portfolio and are trying to justify a fall, but it ain't gonna happen.




Says Kris who has just told the world that he has "perfectly" timed the investment of his full net worth into Colonial Super last Monday.

Kris your welcome to my canoe,I paddled like hell and got out of the water.
Goodluck.


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Trade_It said:


> the dow closed under a very significante support line, there is another clue. Demands can drop very quickly, there is never certainty in the markets,




...demand can drop and support can return again.

I see the DJIA ON support, but not under it, 13200.


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## krisbarry

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Says Kris who has just told the world that he has "perfectly" timed the investment of his full net worth into Colonial Super last Monday.
> 
> Kris your welcome to my canoe,I paddled like hell and got out of the water.
> Goodluck.





Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!


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## gfresh

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Personally I cannot see any signs that this will hold.. confidence is out of the picture, and now major mortgage companies are getting hit. Next stop seems to be 12800.



> Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!




How can you predict that? US Dow Futures was up 100 points before opening, even up in early trade, but the Dow itself ended 146 points down at the end of the day.. There is a lot further to go before this pulls itself out.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> ...demand can drop and support can return again.
> 
> I see the DJIA ON support, but not under it, 13200.




Yep,

I see that asx i had one just above it.

hmm we are very close. cant say which one holds more sway. 

Demand comment, I am referring to the massive demand for base metals at the moment which you would think will stabilize some what rather then grow.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!




STC,

This may be a two day affair or it may be something alot more.

How can u tell that from this current picture, is what I want to know.

Or are you really wishing your in tech's position?


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

I *No Longer* care if Im right OR wrong.
If I'm right then I watch with indifference and plot my next strategy.
If I'm wrong I miss some capital gain (In my portfolio) from 6170 to 6440.

My Risk has been diminished.
Profits have been made and banked.



> Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!




*Fancy that!!*


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!




*Fancy That!!*


*XJO  	6040.3 		-103.9	-1.7% *


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

*UGLY*


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## finnsk

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Is this similar to what happend in May of 2006 or is it worse?


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## wavepicker

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

and sinking........

wonder if this will turn into the "point of recognition" in the next few days.Or will it find support rally first put in a lower high and then do the trick


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## Awesomandy

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

18 points to go until we go under 6000. If we close under that, there might be panic tomorrow morning. For us, 6000 is just another support, but from what I hear, for the mums and dads, some would decide to sell en-mass as 6000 is quite a bit of a psychological support for the not so informed/experienced investors. I've always wondered how many of those there are in Australia.


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## chops_a_must

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



wavepicker said:


> and sinking........
> 
> wonder if this will turn into the "point of recognition" in the next few days.Or will it find support rally first put in a lower high and then do the trick




By my reckoning 5900 on both the XAO and XJO are absolutely critical. But from my view, the energy sector is doing rather well. Albeit without WPL...


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## nomore4s

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Stop_the_clock said:


> stop being so dramatic...base metals are looking OK, and the aussie market will be protected from major falls over coming weeks due to the reporting season.
> 
> I think you may have made a big mistake by selling up your whole portfolio and are trying to justify a fall, but it ain't gonna happen.






Stop_the_clock said:


> Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!




Famous last words? 
Market must've just been waiting for you to be fully invested to continue the slide.


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## tech/a

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Ouch with a capital "OH"


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## nomore4s

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



tech/a said:


> Ouch with a capital "OH"




XJO even worse 203 points


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



finnsk said:


> Is this similar to what happend in May of 2006 or is it worse?




The patterns are slightly different, but the key difference as I see it is the timeframe that the patterns are forming over.  It seems to be of larger scale.   This time the market lost momentum over a longer period of time and has fallen to it's 200-day MA much faster than May '06.  Coupled with some volume and sector analysis I've been doing this suggests that the distribution has gone on for longer this time.  The timing of fundamental market factors like the once off superannuation contribution must be considered as a bigger than usual June 30th event and suggest to me _who_ the new holders of the distributed positions are likely to be.

Something to ponder...if you were one of those who took advantage of the super contribution situation and put your million into super earlier this year...would you be looking at a red or black account balance right now?  If so, to what extent?  Would you start pulling your money out, lest you went on to lose 30% like you did in your mutual funds back in '02?  You're 5 years closer to retirement now...300k buys a lot of retirement living.  A catalyst for further selling, perhaps?

Otherwise it is remarkably similar to May '06 *so far.*  Key point to watch...does the XAO close below it's 200-day MA?  This have NEVER happened during this bull run.  IMO, any prolonged price action below this MA would signal something happening on a larger scale than May '06 or Feb '07.


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## nizar

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> The patterns are slightly different, but the key difference as I see it is the timeframe that the patterns are forming over.  It seems to be of larger scale.   This time the market lost momentum over a longer period of time and has fallen to it's 200-day MA much faster than May '06.  Coupled with some volume and sector analysis I've been doing this suggests that the distribution has gone on for longer this time.  The timing of fundamental market factors like the once off superannuation contribution must be considered as a bigger than usual June 30th event and suggest to me _who_ the new holders of the distributed positions are likely to be.
> 
> Something to ponder...if you were one of those who took advantage of the super contribution situation and put your million into super earlier this year...would you be looking at a red or black account balance right now?  If so, to what extent?  Would you start pulling your money out, lest you went on to lose 30% like you did in your mutual funds back in '02?  You're 5 years closer to retirement now...300k buys a lot of retirement living.  A catalyst for further selling, perhaps?
> 
> Otherwise it is remarkably similar to May '06 *so far.*  Key point to watch...does the XAO close below it's 200-day MA?  This have NEVER happened during this bull run.  IMO, any prolonged price action below this MA would signal something happening on a larger scale than May '06 or Feb '07.





Agree wholly ASX.G.

May2006 was kinda disgusting, instead of being a quick, swift, 3-week affair like the October2005 correction (which is what I suspected at the time), it dragged downwards then sideways for about 4 months before going up again.


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## finnsk

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

ASX
Thanks for your answer from memory it bounced back up before it went further down was thinking along those lines that it "may" happen again tomorrow NOT PREPARED TO GAMBLE on that, and that was the reason for my question, if I understand you correctly if the XAO closes under the 200 ma it could go even further down before it comes back up, interesting.
Have been reading these kind of threads with interest, there is as many opinions as there is members.
I realy appreciate all of the members imputs, not that I understand all of it but I hope that one day I will, and then it will be my turn to help newbies.

Finnsk


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## EZZA

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

sometimes it hurts to be an investor holding through these corrections.

i see support at 5900, bloody better hold above this point.  think it might take a while to recover from this correction.  my investment bank bnb, got hammered today along with some of my small caps which always get hit hard during corrections.

anyone with an idea of where they believe support will begin to form again?


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



finnsk said:


> Have been reading these kind of threads with interest, there is as many opinions as there is members.




Exactly...and the only infallible truth in amongst it all is that nobody knows what will happen next.  Even after today though...based on where price, MA and support levels are, I'm still not inclined to call this a collapse...yet.


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## wayneL

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> Exactly...and the only infallible truth in amongst it all is that nobody knows what will happen next.  Even after today though...based on where price, MA and support levels are, I'm still not inclined to call this a collapse...yet.



No, taking a few steps back and the chart is undamaged. But there I detect a shifting perception, as others noted above... and the risks are far more obvious now...

As discussed in other threads, a 1987 style crash is a very low probability because of regulatory and CB interference in the market. It won't "crash".

But if we don't get a new high within the next 3-4 months, I doubt we'll see one for several years.

Nobody know what happens next, but it sure is fun speculating on it.


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



EZZA said:


> anyone with an idea of where they believe support will begin to form again?




In the very short term probably about where price stopped today.  Europe seems to be falling heavily, playing catchup after bouncing yesterday.  Inspite of the bearish bar in the US last night, it also stopped on support.

Futher falls to around 5921 maybe?

Still, if there is enough fear out there and the US continues its fall, then 5775 on the XAO can't be out of the question.


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## dhukka

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Glad my money is fully in the aussie market today and not out of it...Looks like its going up again today...fancy that!




Hi STC, I was just interested in how glad you are being fully invested after today's little interlude?


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## Lachlan6

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

For me the key support is now the 200 Day EMA. This MA has supported the market incredibly well since the beginnings of the bull market in 2003. See the bounces off this level in 2005 and 2006 indicatating the strength of the trend. Hence if this level is broken strongly, then I think we may have more serious issues with the market. So far though, its hanging on as the MA is around 5935. Very interesting times ahead. A very important night to say the understatement of the year, on Wall St.

If this level is broken, just put up a few levels as possible supports and shown the breakout through the second highest degree Fann Line region and level.


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## Julia

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



dhukka said:


> Hi STC, I was just interested in how glad you are being fully invested after today's little interlude?




Ah yes.


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## Smurf1976

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



chops_a_must said:


> By my reckoning 5900 on both the XAO and XJO are absolutely critical. But from my view, the energy sector is doing rather well. Albeit without WPL...



Energy ought to be doing well given that oil's at record prices and, highly significant IMO, is there without any major supply disruption as a "trigger". All goes reasonably well and we still get $77 oil.

But my fairly large portfolio of energy stocks went down 4.6% today. Individual stocks ranged from one at zero change to a few over 9% down today alone. None of them went up.

Now, oil's hitting records even with just about everything going right for supply but my energy stocks get hammered. Someone's taking quite a bit of money out of the markets in general IMO.

Looking from my "big picture" perspective, this is more a case of a _financial market_ fall rather than a _stock_ market fall IMO. Bonds, currencies, commodities, stocks - all are pretty volatile at the moment. IMO real estate is about to experience much the same as this surely has to have some impacts on ability to buy.


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## BentRod

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



> Nobody know what happens next, but it sure is fun speculating on it.




Certainly is, gets the adrenalin flowing thats for sure.
And I'm only runnin off the dailies...lol


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## BentRod

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Julia said:


> Ah yes.




It's like he said, going up of coarse.


PFFFTT....in smoke


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



Smurf1976 said:


> IMO real estate is about to experience much the same as this surely has to have some impacts on ability to buy.




I prefer to think about it like this.  Over 4 years of stellar returns in the sharemarket.  Many people leveraging into the sharemarket with margin loans, often tied to houses that went up during the property boom.  People cash in their shares, even after the last couple of weeks price falls they're still well in profit, and what do they have?  Equity!  Property markets are reputed to be going up again in many areas around the country.  Thats where I'd be looking for the money to flow to.  

You can wait for the dip...but I reckon the property dip will lag any sharemarket dip by a couple of years, at least.

Don't forget, a sharemarket drop does not mean a problem with the economy.    It doesn't translate directly or immediately to people losing their jobs or foreclosing their houses.  In fact I suspect many people were riding this as long as it could be ridden and they'll unwind their market and debt exposure then look for new opportunities to leverage their capital into.


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## Smurf1976

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



theasxgorilla said:


> I prefer to think about it like this.  Over 4 years of stellar returns in the sharemarket.  Many people leveraging into the sharemarket with margin loans, often tied to houses that went up during the property boom.  People cash in their shares, even after the last couple of weeks price falls they're still well in profit, and what do they have?  Equity!  Property markets are reputed to be going up again in many areas around the country.  Thats where I'd be looking for the money to flow to.
> 
> You can wait for the dip...but I reckon the property dip will lag any sharemarket dip by a couple of years, at least.
> 
> Don't forget, a sharemarket drop does not mean a problem with the economy.    It doesn't translate directly or immediately to people losing their jobs or foreclosing their houses.  In fact I suspect many people were riding this as long as it could be ridden and they'll unwind their market and debt exposure then look for new opportunities to leverage their capital into.



The basis of my comment was simply that there is one common factor at work across the various markets at the moment. The increasing difficulty of getting credit with which to buy the asset. If buyers can not access credit then that removes an awful lot of buyers both in real estate and stocks. 

I think this has at least something to do with what is going on at the moment. Deals are falling over, funds are losing money and assets are being sold all over the place as access to credit dries up. I'm not calling it a crisis (yet) but it's quite a bit of the driving force behind current events in my opinion. What I really don't know is how far it will go. 

My best guess is that this has a while to go until it gets to some sort of crisis that is mainstream (non-financial) headline news. Then we get another round of central bank inflation and the cycle starts again. I could be wrong of course.


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## barney

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*

Heres my less technical view of all ords ................ 5700 looks important to me (last minor correction level) ............... Longer term trading channel has been over-stepped for a while now .............. If it gets back in step with that channel, and then resumes the uptrend, should look fairly healthy .................. If 5700 gets breached ...... who knows .......


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## wayneL

*Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!*



			
				Smurf said:
			
		

> The basis of my comment was simply that there is one common factor at work across the various markets at the moment. The increasing difficulty of getting credit with which to buy the asset.



Yup, the economic clock has been ****ed with by muppets and is now broken.

Everything will hit the wall together and splatter blood everywhere.


----------

