# Ichimoku discussion thread



## kingie_d

Hello everyone,

I am interested in getting into Forex and have been doing a bit of research. Along my travels I came upon the Ichimoku 'indicator'.  I've come across it before but always blew it off because the charts just looked like a mess.  But this time I decided to check it out. 
For anyone who doesn't know what it is, I won't give my own explanation but here are some good descriptions:

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50287

I'd like to open up a discussion to see if anyone here uses it and what sort of success they have had with it.
Do you use it "as is" or add other indicators? Which ones and WHY?
What time frames do YOU use?
Do you use it for trend trading or jump in and out with swing trades in the direction of the Ichimoku?

I recently opened a demo account with OandA to give it a go.
I'll post some of the trades and we'll see how they turn out...


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## kingie_d

Here is the first....

This is the daily EUR/CHF.
Price is above the Kumo cloud.
The Chikou Span is above the price in the past.
The Tenkan-sen is above the Kijun-sen.
The Kumo cloud in the future has turned Bullish (green).
I have used the Kijun-sen as the initial stop loss (red horizontal line) but the top of the current bearish Kumo is a straight line which should be strong support so maybe I should have used that? (see the two days that tried to peirce it then got turned back up! Also looks like an area of previous resistance which has now turned into a support line...)
An earlier entry after the second bounce off the Kumo would have been better but I didn't get to it in time. This is another point that I'm interested in. If you miss the breakout of the Kumo, would you still get into the trade at a later time and how? Randomly jump in? Use Stochastics or another oscillator to get in on a pullback? I have put on a standard Parabolic SAR to look at past breakouts and they seem to present good opportunities with the cross above/below the SAR to get into a missed trade (but hindsight is always a great thing isn't it)


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## kingie_d

Here is the daily AUS/USD with the same setup as before. 

_*I think I need to chuck in here that this is not financial advice and I'm not a fincancial advisor (far from it!). I'm only paper trading this with a demo account for now.*_


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## kingie_d

I think it would also be useful to post the losers too so maybe someone can help me analyse why they are losers!
Here is the EUR/GBP. I entered at the start (top) of the thin red candle (it wasn't a long red candle at the time!) I got stopped out when price dropped below the Kijun-sen. 
Looking at what I probably did wrong, I entered too late after the break through the Kumo. This may answer my previous question of getting in after missing the trade. Should I have waited for a retracement then another entry after price climbed back above the Kijun-sen (or both the Kijun-sen and Tenkan sen?)?


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## kingie_d

And here is the EUR/JPY.
I probably got into this one too late also but took it anyway. A better entry would have been the intial break or straight after the retracement. An oscillator or SAR might have shown the late entry after the retracement?...
Another thing I'd like to point out is, notice the two previous breaks? They both would have been losers even though trade setups were good in both cases! This entry/exit method could be subject to alot of whipsaws and that is where the money management and living to trade another day thing comes in I suppose. I am using 1 % to determine my trade sizes so its $1000 losers (on the OandA demo account) hopefully there will be some big winners too!


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## kingie_d

Here is the EUR/JPY with a SAR and Stochastics added to it. They both provided an entry after the retracement at the same spot. Using a retracement entry might stop some false breakouts but you could also miss out completely if there is no pullback


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## disarray

that last chart looks like you need to be on acid to understand it


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## kingie_d

LOL, yeah thats why I didn't look into Ichimoku charts before. Now with two extra indicators its a TRUE mess!


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## ithatheekret

The indicator itself is multifaceted . it outlines trend along with support and resistance levels as well as entry signals if used correctly . The main lines are much the same as MACD , but when used in conjunction with another chart using western style indicators is where it excels . The price action and the Kumo ( cloud ) are the signals most looked at when in bull mode ( price above cloud ) etc., yet the crossings can be effective in trend reversal and position shifts , be they long term , where it again excels or for the short term movements .


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## Kauri

Yikes..  I've been mislead... I thought it was all about fish..

  Biting
..............kauri


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## kingie_d

ithatheekret said:


> The indicator itself is multifaceted . it outlines trend along with support and resistance levels as well as entry signals if used correctly . The main lines are much the same as MACD , but when used in conjunction with another chart using western style indicators is where it excels . The price action and the Kumo ( cloud ) are the signals most looked at when in bull mode ( price above cloud ) etc., yet the crossings can be effective in trend reversal and position shifts , be they long term , where it again excels or for the short term movements .




In alot of the reading I've done about the Ichimoku, most people are against including other indicators with it. So far I'm undecided. By itself it looks great for med term trend trading, but if you were going to do more short term swing trades, then I suppose it would be ideal to use the Ichi to determine the trend, and other western indicators for exact entries and exits.
What indicators do you use with the Ichimoku?


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## ithatheekret

I start with all the MA's , inclusive of the 89 day MA . and proceed from there . Confirmation is the goal , not always achievable though , and it takes a little more watching and waiting for the signals to inspire action equal to the opportunities that may show themselves .


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## arco

.
Compare a plain chart and an Ichimoku chart.

Ickimoku gives you a road map to find your way........

I use it for short term trading on 15/30/1hr/4hr charts.

Some recent trades were outlined on the Gold threads


rgds -arco


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## arco

.
5M chart. 
Just a quick southern ride targeting the Kumo to pick up a few pips on the KS/TS X and Chikou break. The best trade on this today was 4 hrs earlier for *+200 pips*


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## arco

.
Result of previous Loonie trade. Post #14

Maximum south move on short term scalp/day trade *+142 pips.*

Maximum holding with larger stop at pivot high *+334 pips*

GTA - arco


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## arco

The IchiWiki appears to be working again............

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page


have fun...........

arco


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## arco

Loonie

Short based on 2nd rejection off bearish Kumo and TS/KS parting X

*+10 *locked in

GTA - arco


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## arco

Update

*Currently +103*...tightening stop at *+70*

arco


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## arco

Update.

Loonie position closed by SL at *+70*

arco


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## arco

.

Scalp trade on the *5m Yen.* just completed


(Not a pair I trade much.......but was good for a quick *+40 pips*)

rgds - arco


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## tcoates

arco,

can I ask what was your entry/exit (or method) was?

see http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Ichimoku_trading_strategies#Kijun_Sen_Cross

I have just coded this system for Amibroker (couldn't be bother searching/downloading from any web site) and wanted to compare your trade with the systems posted on the above page.

Thanks
Tim


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## arco

Hi tcoates

These were my considerations.............

TS/KS X

Kumo Break/Kumo re-test

Chikou break

Bullish Kumo (ahead)

Entry - green dotted line 

Exit planned circa grey boxed area - (old thick Kumo)



rgds - arco


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## white_goodman

i really need to up my recreational drug dosage...


"The man has only one look, for Christ's sake! Blue Steel? Ferrari? Le Tigra? They're the same face! Doesn't anybody notice this? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills! I invented the piano key necktie, I invented it! What have you done, Derek? You've done nothing! NOTHIIIING!"


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## arco

WG

I find red wine works a treat for me 

Amazing how easy it is to trade.................


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## arco

The original Ichimokau


http://video.aol.com/video-detail/th...cow/1636125223

Amazing support an resistance lines


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## CanOz

This past week the currency action pulled back and then advanced again, producing a huge list of Ichimoku signals on the daily's. I'll pick out a few to watch this coming week. Will we see a resumption of the trends or are we in for more consolidation?

Obviously some signals are doubled up in the reverse pair.

Cheers,

CanOz


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## bigmal2000

arco said:


> .
> 
> Scalp trade on the *5m Yen.* just completed
> 
> 
> (Not a pair I trade much.......but was good for a quick *+40 pips*)
> 
> rgds - arco



 Using Ichimoku. 
Hi Arco, 
1) Which time period do you get the best net profits please?
For example is it 5 minute or 15 minute or daily etc?
2)Is there a particular signal you use such as the position of Chico Span, or the crossing of the Tenken  lines etc .
Thank you . bigmal2000


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## cashflow_08

Hello ,

I'd like to say big thanks to kingie and arco. Ichimoku is one powerful tool if you know how to use it and the link posted on the first post of this thread is one of the best explanation to be found.
I;ll try to have a look to have a refresher course on it. 

Thanks again,
C_flow


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## Andruha

cashflow_08 said:


> Hello ,
> 
> I'd like to say big thanks to kingie and arco. Ichimoku is one powerful tool if you know how to use it and the link posted on the first post of this thread is one of the best explanation to be found.
> I;ll try to have a look to have a refresher course on it.
> 
> Thanks again,
> C_flow




+1 :

I did not know much about Ichimoku until I read this thread. Some good links on the first page! I actually traded it this morning (see image attached). So far +40 pips at half position closed and still looking at gaining another 30 on the rest that is hanging - all the indicators are still intact.

I did have a losing trade too. Although yen showed TS/KS X with aligning Kumo and Chikou span early in the morning, I got whipsawed for -17 pips.

I'll keep implementing...see what happens.


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## arco

Andruha

If you can cope with a longer TF it works very well on those also

for example here on Yen weekly


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## arco

.
Hourly can be good when you get it right . 

From memory I think I took about 170 pips on this one.


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## Andruha

Arco,

Some good trades there man!  NZDCAD is a recent trade I see...Very nice - I like!

I've sort of realised that the longer time frames are more favourable for Ichi.  But then again. Attached is the trade I took last nite on EURGBP. Everything aligned for me and I took the position once previous Chikou span level was violated (dashed yellow line). However was not to be...got stopped out with some loss.

Arco, how do you find the opportunities like NZDCAD? Do you just free roam around the pairs until you see what you like. Coz currently I'm looking at 1H charts for 6 pairs and it has been dead here for couple of days now...


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## Andruha

How about this one for EUR/GBP. Just broke yesterday's chikou span on M30 so I entered short 1 lot at 0.9076. Target 1 at monthly PP at .9048. SL @ 0.9095.

1H also shows some bearish momentum with kumo sentiment being on the down side and chikou span being bearish...


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## arco

Andruha said:


> How about this one for EUR/GBP. Just broke yesterday's chikou span on M30 so I entered short 1 lot at 0.9076. Target 1 at monthly PP at .9048. SL @ 0.9095.
> 
> 1H also shows some bearish momentum with kumo sentiment being on the down side and chikou span being bearish...




Nice trade. I dont always look at EurGbp. 
I would have liked to have taken a trade off the H4......135+ pips so far!!!

Regarding finding trades. Occasionally I look at unusual pairs if nothing is happening on the majors


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## Andruha

Andruha said:


> How about this one for EUR/GBP. Just broke yesterday's chikou span on M30 so I entered short 1 lot at 0.9076. Target 1 at monthly PP at .9048. SL @ 0.9095.
> 
> 1H also shows some bearish momentum with kumo sentiment being on the down side and chikou span being bearish...




Seems like this trade was done hasty ahead of the major news - BOE meeting minutes. Not a smart move... The trade went my way and so far made me a bit over 50 pips. Close 1/2 position and keep the rest until opposite signal will reveal itself.


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## Andruha

arco said:


> Nice trade. I dont always look at EurGbp.
> I would have liked to have taken a trade off the H4......135+ pips so far!!!
> 
> Regarding finding trades. Occasionally I look at unusual pairs if nothing is happening on the majors




Nice! I've just had a look at GBP/USD. Arco did you get on the long one at around 1.600 on 15th? There was a nice signal then and by now it yielded just a bit over 560 pips...


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## alwaysLearning

arco said:


> The IchiWiki appears to be working again............
> 
> http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page
> 
> 
> have fun...........
> 
> arco




Great link. It really is facinating. I'm reading along at the link. My mind is often a little jumbled sometimes since I have tested and used so many strategies but this iku is great since it has a lot of the important things right there off the bat.

And I'm thinking that I can combine it with some of my other ideas and strategies.

Very nice


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## Kryzz

How long did it take people to get their head around Ichimoku (for practical application not theory)??

cheers


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## arco

Andruha said:


> Nice! I've just had a look at GBP/USD. Arco did you get on the long one at around 1.600 on 15th? There was a nice signal then and by now it yielded just a bit over 560 pips...




It was a great signal as you say, but must have been busy with other trades and missed that little beauty. All elements came together nicely.


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## arco

Kryzz said:


> How long did it take people to get their head around Ichimoku (for practical application not theory)??
> 
> cheers






The basic elements are reasonably easy/quick to learn and you should be able to place trades with the system as soon as you understand them all well enough.


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## Andruha

Here is the interesting one...Arco would you be able to provide your feedback on that one.

M30 on USDCAD does not look promising at all. Although I can observe KS/TS X and Chikou span is bullish, kumo sentiment is still bearish. However, on 4H chart the price just broke above bearish kumo and bullish kumo is forming. Am I missing something here? Perhaps I should wait for candle on 4H to close to get in....

My entry was at 1.0503 with SL @ 1.0476. Now I'm hoping for a long term trade here with price going to 50% fib of 1.0959-1.0205 decline. However I do have a feeling that SL is rather tight for such long position. Any comment?

And lastly (I hope you don't mind me picking your brain - but I do find Ichimoku rather fascinating topic ) if say on 4H TM you have a clear bearish sentiment would you still trade long on lower TM say M30 or 1H?

Cheers


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## Kryzz

So would ichimoku people have taken a short with the Aussie, because there was a kenjun/tenkan cross (although its a weak one because it was above the kumo?), but there was a kumo breakout to the short side? Or is discretion still needed, as the AUD is in a ridiculous uptrend atm? I also find this method of trading interesting.


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## Andruha

Kryzz said:


> So would ichimoku people have taken a short with the Aussie, because there was a kenjun/tenkan cross (although its a weak one because it was above the kumo?), but there was a kumo breakout to the short side? Or is discretion still needed, as the AUD is in a ridiculous uptrend atm? I also find this method of trading interesting.




Looks good. The direction seems to be right. The only thing that I can note is that although you do have a KS/TS X and Chikou span is also lower, the kumo cloud sentiment in the future is turning bullish. So not all the signals align


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## Andruha

Andruha said:


> Looks good. The direction seems to be right. The only thing that I can note is that although you do have a KS/TS X and Chikou span is also lower, the kumo cloud sentiment in the future is turning bullish. So not all the signals align




One more thing that I forgot to mention about the Aussie. I actually start to pay more attention to previous Chikou span turning points. Drawing a horizontal line through them can (not necesseraly will) act as a resistance/support point. So I generally wait for the price (if it is in proximity) to pierce through the line before going ahead. 

On the example with Aussie, there are two turning points in green line very close to each other at around 0.92. So that could be a turning point for the currency.

My looney trade did not worked out last neither - got stopped out. I think for the longer positions 20 - 40 pips stop loss is rather tight. Probably need to double it.


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## arco

Andruha said:


> Here is the interesting one...Arco would you be able to provide your feedback on that one.
> 
> M30 on USDCAD does not look promising at all. Although I can observe KS/TS X and Chikou span is bullish, kumo sentiment is still bearish. However, on 4H chart the price just broke above bearish kumo and bullish kumo is forming. Am I missing something here? Perhaps I should wait for candle on 4H to close to get in....
> 
> My entry was at 1.0503 with SL @ 1.0476. Now I'm hoping for a long term trade here with price going to 50% fib of 1.0959-1.0205 decline. However I do have a feeling that SL is rather tight for such long position. Any comment?
> 
> And lastly (I hope you don't mind me picking your brain - but I do find Ichimoku rather fascinating topic ) if say on 4H TM you have a clear bearish sentiment would you still trade long on lower TM say M30 or 1H?
> 
> Cheers




30m Loonie 
Low TF - good for scalping, or you can take a portion off and leave some to run when other TFs are bullish. 




Re the last question.

As with any system one TF chart can be bearish the other TF bullish, so check all TFs to find general direction/s.

Weigh up signals on all TFs to get an overall picture of s/r, crossovers, etc. Take trades in any direction as per the TF you are trading but be conscious of any opposing trends on the other TF. Smaller TFs can often mean scalping or smaller profits. When all charts line up bullish (or bearish), that direction can be much more fruitful.

i.e. Loonie Daily 1300+ pips


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## arco

Andruha said:


> One more thing that I forgot to mention about the Aussie. I actually start to pay more attention to previous Chikou span turning points. Drawing a horizontal line through them can (not necesseraly will) act as a resistance/support point. So I generally wait for the price (if it is in proximity) to pierce through the line before going ahead.
> 
> On the example with Aussie, there are two turning points in green line very close to each other at around 0.92. So that could be a turning point for the currency.
> 
> My looney trade did not worked out last neither - got stopped out. I think for the longer positions 20 - 40 pips stop loss is rather tight. Probably need to double it.




Well spotted. Lots of people get confused by Chikou Span. 
Because it prints the price plot 26 periods back it automatically shows S/R (closing price).

arco


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## cashflow_08

Nice to see you guys having success with Ichimoku.
Whats the current success rate with it?  cheers


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## arco

cashflow_08 said:


> Nice to see you guys having success with Ichimoku.
> Whats the current success rate with it?  cheers




Success rate would probably be dependant on experience. I've been studying Ichimoku for around 8 years and have a very high success rate. Like any system you have to spend 100's of hours studying charts and the various TFs to see how they interact with each other, etc. That way you get a real feel for the way the Ichimoku system works. I have even translated various Japanese Ichimoku documents trying to get additional information not available in English language.

arco


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## Andruha

cashflow_08 said:


> Nice to see you guys having success with Ichimoku.
> Whats the current success rate with it?  cheers






arco said:


> Success rate would probably be dependant on experience. I've been studying Ichimoku for around 8 years and have a very high success rate. Like any system you have to spend 100's of hours studying charts and the various TFs to see how they interact with each other, etc. That way you get a real feel for the way the Ichimoku system works. I have even translated various Japanese Ichimoku documents trying to get additional information not available in English language.
> 
> arco




Well mine are not that good. I'll probably be around low 30% if not higher 20%. But I do agree with arco - it is all in the practice. I Ichimoku a very easy system to understand, but unfortunately my timings for entry and exists are rather poor at the moment (you could say noob ). It is hard to watch every move at work - I'm sitting right next to the boss. So I do miss a fare bit of signals and by the time I'm in - its too late.

But as of late I've realised that success in this game does not come easy - just like in anything there are hours of practice required. I'll keep posting though since arco is kindly sharing his experience and provides valuable feedback on Ichimoku :

Dre


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## Andruha

Well after not so successfully last week I've started the week on the positive note. Traded Cable for a 40 pip profit so far and still holding on to that position - although I'm still not happy with the set up.

The one that I want to share with Ichi people around the forum is the 1H set up on EUR/JPY. My entry was just past the blue line @ 136.76. I had a bad luck with this one early on today - got stopped out -23 pips. But I got in now with SL above weekly PP @ 137.08. My first target is at 136.44 or daily S1. Let's see how it goes


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## Kryzz

I'm gonna keep an eye on the euro see if it breaks the kumo for a short, broke out of a trend channel thats been in place since the beginning of the month, due for a retrace.


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## arco

Hi Friends

Apologies, didnt get around to posting this yesterday. I did post it on elsewhere. 

Hopefully it will give you some understanding of my Ichi thoughts...........

Chikou has broken through on the H4 and is likely to test the plot from below.
PA is surfing the H4 Kumo at the moment and it is likely to tease the upper edge as it is
drawn towards KS. A reversal at the edge could see the plot going for a Senkou B test
break. Looking at ahead Kumo there is a narrow band forming which could be an ideal place
to allow a re-break higher. An up-trend line awaits below as potential support.

The Senkou A edge holds the golden key.




UPDATE


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## Andruha

Andruha said:


> Well after not so successfully last week I've started the week on the positive note. Traded Cable for a 40 pip profit so far and still holding on to that position - although I'm still not happy with the set up.
> 
> The one that I want to share with Ichi people around the forum is the 1H set up on EUR/JPY. My entry was just past the blue line @ 136.76. I had a bad luck with this one early on today - got stopped out -23 pips. But I got in now with SL above weekly PP @ 137.08. My first target is at 136.44 or daily S1. Let's see how it goes




Funny enough but I've actually closed that trade as I did not like the way it went. I though it will reach SL so I acted before it did (red arrow shows where I actually abandoned position). The first picture below shows you how the price actually went....I guess I should hold trades for longer if I want to see any kind of returns 



Kryzz said:


> I'm gonna keep an eye on the euro see if it breaks the kumo for a short, broke out of a trend channel thats been in place since the beginning of the month, due for a retrace.




Good one Shaunkris

I actually took that trade today in the morning without waiting for it to breach the Chikou span resistance...I is premature and if I get out of it I will be lucky...It did actually broke Senkou Span B so...

The last graph is EUR/CAD 1H. It look similar to that set up of EUR/USD in the sense it  just broke through its bullish kumo and the kumo sentiment is shifting. Although it is still yet to break through the Chikou span resistance. So still waiting on it.


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## Andruha

arco said:


> Hi Friends
> 
> Apologies, didnt get around to posting this yesterday. I did post it on elsewhere.
> 
> Hopefully it will give you some understanding of my Ichi thoughts...........
> 
> Chikou has broken through on the H4 and is likely to test the plot from below.
> PA is surfing the H4 Kumo at the moment and it is likely to tease the upper edge as it is
> drawn towards KS. A reversal at the edge could see the plot going for a Senkou B test
> break. Looking at ahead Kumo there is a narrow band forming which could be an ideal place
> to allow a re-break higher. An up-trend line awaits below as potential support.
> 
> The Senkou A edge holds the golden key.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UPDATE




So has anyone taken that trade? I guess I was lucky at the end - the news in US overnight turned out pretty good so my position in EUR/USD is +85 pips with half position closed at 55 pips.

I'm also in trade for NZD/JPY (although before I went in I should've checked the correlation between the two pairs as I effectively doubled up) which also goes nicely at +120 pips with 61 pips already locked .

There is another pair that showed some good Ichimoku entry in my opinion - AUD/JPY - the graph is below. Anyone took it?


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## Andruha

Hi all,

It looks like GBP/JPY develops into a nice trend if it can break out of kumo clound on 4H chart. There are a few obstacles on its way of course - mainly 50% fib level from previous uptrend as well as that pesky rising trend line. Still there are about good 65 pips in between the Senkou span B and the 50%...

The amount of trades on 4H charts overnight is mind blowing!  I've looked this morning and saw so many opportunities that came to fruition! And all of them made at least 100 pips each so far. Any of Ichimoku people taken any trades in?

Cheers


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## kingie_d

Combine Ichimoku with support & resistance on higher TFs  or range breakouts (same concept), and you get very good results.  eg If you're looking for a reversal off r/s (on higher TF) then use Ichi as confirmation for safer entries & exits and ride a good part of the trend. Same goes for breakouts - should have Ichi signals


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## Garpal Gumnut

Have you guys heard of Ockhams Razor.
Basically the simpler the solution the better the results.
Ichi all seems very complicated.
I stick to bars or candles and volume, with support and resistance, and fibonnaci targets.
I'm not saying you are wrong but its very complicated.

gg


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## arco

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Have you guys heard of Ockhams Razor.
> Basically the simpler the solution the better the results.
> Ichi all seems very complicated.
> I stick to bars or candles and volume, with support and resistance, and fibonnaci targets.
> I'm not saying you are wrong but its very complicated.
> 
> gg




gg

Its like anything it takes time to understand. I've been studying it for around 8 years (and trading for much longer)

*Friday night trade*


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## arco

Andruha said:


> Hi all,
> 
> Any of Ichimoku people taken any trades in?
> 
> Cheers




I had 3 good ones for about 500 pips. 

EY, Cable and Loonie

Heres Cable.  EY - see previous post. (Loonie was +162)


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## Andruha

arco said:


> gg
> 
> Its like anything it takes time to understand. I've been studying it for around 8 years (and trading for much longer)
> 
> *Friday night trade*




Hi Arco,

Can I ask you a quick question - why do you colour yellow the cross between price and chickou span? Do this provide an indication of shifting momentum?


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## arco

Andruha said:


> Hi Arco,
> 
> Can I ask you a quick question - why do you colour yellow the cross between price and chickou span? Do this provide an indication of shifting momentum?




Basically a marker. Once I see the Chikou at the plot edge I put the yellow splodge there so that as I quickly scan through the charts four hours later I can easily identify and check its progress.

Example


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## Andruha

Hi all,

Sorry was a bit busy - work related matters.

Here are a few upcoming trades (hopefully) that might work out. First one is EUR/CAD on 4H charts - just waiting for the candle to break lower kumo border.

The other one is AUD/NZD on 1H chart - again waiting on kumo cloud break.

What do you think people? Anyone taking trades this week?


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## Dracuu

Hello Fellow Traders,

I have been studying Ichimoku intensely over the last few weeks and I am very impressed by it. I incorporated Ichi for the first time tonight on a GBP/USD trade and so far so good.

In both the Daily and Hourly(which is the one I traded off) there were 4 bullish signals on each and they all painted the same picture. 
The Chikou crossed price upwards, the Price crossed Kijun Sen upwards, Tenkan Sen crossed Kijun Sen upwards and the price broke the cloud on the upside. I took the trade on the TS/KS cross earlier tonight and so far up 120pips! 

I have attached the charts and put green squares around what my interpretation of signals are. I am only learning so any comments appreciated.


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## Andruha

Dracuu said:


> Hello Fellow Traders,
> 
> I have been studying Ichimoku intensely over the last few weeks and I am very impressed by it. I incorporated Ichi for the first time tonight on a GBP/USD trade and so far so good.
> 
> In both the Daily and Hourly(which is the one I traded off) there were 4 bullish signals on each and they all painted the same picture.
> The Chikou crossed price upwards, the Price crossed Kijun Sen upwards, Tenkan Sen crossed Kijun Sen upwards and the price broke the cloud on the upside. I took the trade on the TS/KS cross earlier tonight and so far up 120pips!
> 
> I have attached the charts and put green squares around what my interpretation of signals are. I am only learning so any comments appreciated.




Interesting trade mate. I do not personally trade unless I get all the signals lined up - chikou span TS/KS cross as well as kumo sentiment. But then again it a personal choice.

On that note - does any one trade on kijin sen cross (when price just pierces kijin cross, KS/TS cross is not necessary)?


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## Dracuu

I have studied numerous charts over numerous time frames and I am becoming more convinced that the KS cross is the most reliable of all the indicators. However the conditions need to be right in order for you to put any weight on the cross.

If the market has been bouncing through it over the past several bars then obviously it becomes useless but if the market has been trending along with for a good length of time and then suddenly shoots away from it and then comes back and goes through it (closes past it) then it is very likely it will make a big move in that direction. ie in the 1H GPBUSD chart I posted above.

The KS line seems to be like a magnet. The market tends to go away from it and then gets drawn back to it.

The Kumo Sentiment in my opinion so far seems to be the least reliable. For now I am treating the cloud as high resistance in general depending on how wide it is but I am ignoring the sentiment factor for now.
Actually it seems like in order for the market to turn the sentiment has to be opposite and the cloud very thin. Still lots to study on this.

I think the Chikou cross is also very powerful. If it has been trending along with the market for some time and then pivots and goes through it I would be looking for a trade in that direction.

The TSKS cross is very reliable also. My general observation so far is that the longer the period were there hasn't been a cross the more reliable the cross becomes.

Those are my observations so far.


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## caribean

Though i don't use Ichimoku, there used to be another trader here some time ago that used it (successfully from what i gather), but i don't remember his nick.
A quick search would find him.)


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## arco

I've had some great Ichimoku trades this week here's one thats still running


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## arco

Great move confirmed by Ichimoku on various TFs with the action closing the old gap


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## arco

Anyone still trading with Ichimoku
- nice trade on the blog here on UsdCad for over 200 pips - using Ichimoku strategy
*
ALERT GIVEN PRIOR TO MOVE*


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## sinner

I'm watching a few clouds, but not on the forex.

TSxKS is bearish on both weekly and daily. Daily had a lower close after the cross, weekly close below 9000 could be scary.


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## arco

Hi Sinner

Not my cup of tea - looks a bit scary for trading. My charts are not that hot on Nikkei but wouldn't be surprised to see an initial  move higher to the Senkou A (1h CHART). Lets say circa 9300 before rolling over


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## arco

arco said:


> Hi Sinner
> 
> Not my cup of tea - looks a bit scary for trading. My charts are not that hot on Nikkei but wouldn't be surprised to see an initial  move higher to the Senkou A (1h CHART). Lets say circa 9300 before rolling over





HIGH reached 9320 - that's Ichimoku magic!


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## sinner

Hi arco,

It is because of your post that I decided to check the forex charts with Ichimoku for the first time in a long time when in fact it used to be the only way I would trade. Forgot how much I enjoyed viewing these charts and *just how much information* they actually show. I will try and trade the FX majors on the daily for a while on this thread, see if we can renew some interest in the Forex section of this forum!

On the hunt for EUR weakness, three options with valid signal were EUR/CHF EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP. Afraid of Central Bank intervention in the two former (especially lots of talk of Kampo and BoJ sitting on the offer selling JPY against everything), I opted for a short on EUR/GBP at the Chikou span cross closing price. Weekly charts show last week closed below a flat TS.

EURGBP short:
    * Entry: 0.8220
    * Stop-loss: 0.8465, also watch TS direction change, Chikou span go back above price curve for earlier exit.
    * Signal: Neutral/Strong bearish Chikou span cross. Weak bearish TS/KS cross occurred prior which may lend some weight.


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## arco

Ichimoku Trading
We scored a maximum of *+554 PIPS* overnight on Aussie, Kiwi, Euro and Loonie


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## sinner

Hi arco, it might be nice for some Ichimoku discussion rather than just posting pip counts for your subscription site.

Here is todays trade on my part:
Overnight markets moved down strongly in risk averse mode. We look for a good signal to capitalise on the fear and find NZD/USD has made a weak bearish TS/KS cross in the last few days and last night was enough to bring the Chikou span facing down below the price curve. Wary of further "risk on" moves, however would like to capitalise on downside.

*New positions:*
NZDUSD Short:

    * Entry: 0.7070
    * Stop-loss: 0.7235 with a close eye on both TS and KS as possible trailing stops.
    * Signal: Weak bearish Chikou span cross + weak bearish TS/KS cross.


*Adjust positions:*
None.
*Close positions:*
None.
*Current positions:*

    * EUR/GBP Short 0.8220 - SL 0.8465 - Current rate 0.8221


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## arco

Hi Sinner

I have put a number of successful free trade ideas on ASF this week based on Ichi system, and will do so again next week. Also check out also 12 years of free charting techniques/advice on sharetrader - 6500 posts.

Ichimoku system is best used in conjunction with candle patterns as this trade here from yesterday shows. Bearish Engulfing against Kumo - resulting in 83 pips take.


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## sinner

Sorry arco, I thought this was Ichimoku discussion thread, my mistake. You made one hindsight post about USDCAD, and another about Nikkei on my prompting, then wrote "We scored a maximum of +554 PIPS overnight on Aussie, Kiwi, Euro and Loonie".

Main reason I posting in this thread was to revive some interest in this forum for Ichimoku but I think it will be hard for people to be interested or learn when they see posts like that. "We got rich last night, just sign up and see how".

Will continue my Ichimoku postings elsewhere. On ForexFactory, signal services disguised under trading systems get moved to the "Commercial" section. Anyone interested in discussing Ichimoku or seeing how it is used welcome to tag along there.


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## Andruha

sinner said:


> Hi arco,
> On the hunt for EUR weakness, three options with valid signal were EUR/CHF EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP. Afraid of Central Bank intervention in the two former (especially lots of talk of Kampo and BoJ sitting on the offer selling JPY against everything), I opted for a short on EUR/GBP at the Chikou span cross closing price. Weekly charts show last week closed below a flat TS.
> View attachment 38506




Same here - seems like they can intervene any moment now

I'm actually looking at some USD pairs with euro being one of them. A small flag has formed on 4H charts as the price is currently printing doji and seats right on KS. Other USD pairs like cable and aussie show similar pattern with prices testing bottom of kumo.

Could the night bring the move south?

PS: Sorry for the picture quality - have to figure out how to do better resolution


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## arco

Example using Ichimoku elements to predict the track of a FX pair. Purple Trace is the predicted track based on the information contained in the Ichimoku chart

Chart from 31/8 
Overnight result maximum 116 pips north, 80 pips south


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## arco

Lets take another example using Ichimoku elements Chikou/Kijun/Kumo to predict the potential track of a FX pair. The Purple Trace is the predicted track based on the information contained in the Ichimoku chart

Euro Chart from 1/9 given prior to the move
Overnight result maximum +157 pips north, +61 pips south




*Another example on Aussie*

AudUsd Chart from 1/9 given prior to the move
Overnight result maximum +133 pips north




.


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## daveM

I have been using Ichimoku n a renko chart along with fibonacci, some good results trading only breakouts





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## prism2

Ichimoku definitely for higher timeframes.   1hr/4hr for intra-day trend trades.  It tends to be sturdy on those two timeframes.  Sturdy enough to execute off triggers placed on the 15m/30m for trend-following trades.  It's always a bad sign when price pulls into the cloud on the higher timeframes... it ends up producing a choppy market on the 15m/30m.


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## tinhat

Someone mentioned these in another discussion just recently. I tried to find that post but couldn't. Anyway, I'd never heard of Ichimoku Clouds so did some late night youtube watching and I'm very interested. It really helps identify if a stock is in a trend and supposedly the strength of that trend.

I might use it to help validate buy signals and market condition (XAO). I bought a couple of stocks in the past few days that I got stopped out of fairly quickly and when I went back and checked them on the Ichimoku cloud it confirmed they were not in a clear trend (they were inside the cloud and not in clean air).

I also found tradingview.com which provides free web based charting with Ichinoko Cloud format with delayed live pricing, the ability to add watchlists and nice clean interface. I haven't really looked into it much beyond that. I also discovered that the web based charting program in Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor also includes it.

I'd be interested to hear more from anyone who has been using them on a daily (EOD) basis and any observations.

ps: I haven't read through this thread yet. Will do so tonight.


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## InsvestoBoy

I've used them in the past, there isn't a lot of magic there if you look into how the lines are constructed.

Tenkan/Kijun Sen lines are the midpoint of 9/26 period high/low, i.e. same as the midpoint of Donchian channel of those lengths.
Senkou B is constructed similarly from the 52 period high/low and shifted forward on the chart in a similar but further shifted way to Bill Williams Alligator.
Chiku Span is same as the 26 period ROC or Momentum, but plotted as an overlay rather than separately as you'll see on Western technical analysis charts.

The 9,26,52 default parameters fit nicely into a weekly chart where 26w = 6m and 52w = 12m but that is not why they were originally chosen, and rather chosen for use on a daily chart. If you look up those original reasons (see below) you'll find it is probably wise to switch out those parameters/lagging.



> The standard settings of are: 9-26-52. The base number of
> the formula is 26. The common view is that the number 26
> represents a standard Japanese business month included Saturdays),
> the number 9 represents a week and a
> half and the number 52 represents two months. Some hold
> different views and says that the calculation of Goichi
> Hosoda based on - among others - Moon cycles, as the
> number 26 is the best approximate number to express a full
> Moon cycle, the number 9 represents one and a half quarter
> Moon cycle, and number 52 represents a double Moon cycle.




So there isn't much value in the originally chosen parameters and the construction of the lines themselves isn't any more magical than any other moving average, channel or oscillator using the same parameters and forward shifting. Maybe one valuable thing is the "kinko hyo" or "at a glance", all the stuff is presented as a suite in a single chart rather than as 5 different indicators in panes below the chart.

I bet if I presented each line as an indicator below the chart you would think it was silly.

A lot of Japanese technical analysis traders use it and so you will often see, especially in JPY crosses on FX markets and on the Nikkei index that the price will trade off the lines.

EDIT: You saw some of your trades got stopped out because they were in the cloud, but if you trade off Ichimoku system triggers you will still find plenty of "clear sky" trades that get stopped out. That is just the nature of trend following.


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## cogs

To each their own I guess, if it can help turn a profit for you, that's all you need. 
I think for many it's hard not to get caught up in the eye candy, particularly of some ancient mysterious Japanese wizardry which I agree is not much more than a lagging MA to help spot overbought oversold which is bogus in itself.

But hey if you get return, that's great!


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## Gringotts Bank

A 'technique' is only a technique when it can be matched up with the appropriate sell signals and backtested profitably.  Without that it's nothing. Whether it looks nice on the chart, whether it takes 10 lines or 10000 lines of code.... such things have no relevance.

The very first day I looked at a chart, I plotted a parabolic SAR and thought to myself, 'how good is this!'.  Optical illusion.  No individual indicator can be traded in isolation.  If you use several of them to create a system, maybe you can find some good entries.  Then you have to work out how/when to sell.


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## snilson

ic. never works..


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## tinhat

snilson said:


> ic. never works..




Hi sn, can you give us any more insight into your experience and thoughts?


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## Bernfeld

I use Ichimoku with ADX and Stochastic. When I added these indicators to my strategy, my maximum drawdown decreased by 30%, and ROI increased by 14%. But in general, the yield on this strategy is minimal, about 1-1.5% per year.


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