# OECD: Unemployment and chaos will rock the world



## MrBurns (31 March 2009)

From Crikey again - 



> OECD: Unemployment and chaos will rock the world
> Glenn Dyer writes:
> 
> Unemployment is going to be the big issue of the next couple of years -- this will be a "jobs and social crisis" that will grip the world's biggest economies, putting one in 10 workers out of a job, according to the OECD.
> ...


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## metric (31 March 2009)

One in four workers to go on welfare - economist Bob Gregory
By David Uren
The Australian
March 31, 2009 07:47am

THERE could be one person of working age on welfare for every three people with a job by the time a recession ends, according to one of Australia's leading economists, Bob Gregory. 

The welfare blowout, with more than a million more people likely to be relying on benefits, will far exceed the threat posed by an increasing aged population and has so far been overlooked by federal Government and Treasury, The Australian reports. 

Professor Gregory has modelled the changes in the welfare population following the 1990-92 recession, and says the rise in unemployment is likely to be followed by increases in the number of people on disability, carer and sole-parent pensions. 

A paper to be presented by Professor Gregory to a Victoria University conference next month shows the full-time male workforce never recovered from the 1990-92 downturn, when it dropped from a historic average of about 62 per cent to 54 per cent of the male working-age population. 



"What happens is that male unemployment goes up, and then, as time goes by, the unemployment rate comes down, not because there are more jobs but because the unemployed gradually seep into disability payments," he says. 

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25267926-5017313,00.html


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## MrBurns (31 March 2009)

You can see it happening now, layoffs everywhere, every day.

10% unemployment is now almost a certainty - meaning.

Housing mortgage defaults by the truckload and a housing crash.

If ever there was a sure thing this is it, and the RBA ??? wouldnt listen to a word they say, they live on the 68th floor of a building somewhere away from reality.


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## metric (31 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> You can see it happening now, layoffs everywhere, every day.
> 
> 10% unemployment is now almost a certainty - meaning.
> 
> ...




listen to them? hell, they engineered the thing!


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## Happy (31 March 2009)

With the first home grant recipients should also get job guarantee for 10 years or so, similar to guarantee of bank deposits for 3 years.

I just hate to see the misery brought by dashed hope of owning a home.
Unless RudBank will prevent new homeowners from defaulting because of job loss.
Quite possible and definitely will give him win in next election.


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## Uncle Festivus (31 March 2009)

And some light reading from The Economist

http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2582....com/specialReport/manning_the_barricades.pdf



> Job losses are at the heart of the growing political crisis. The International
> Labour Organisation expects global unemployment to rise by around 30m this
> year compared with 2007, and by as much as 50m if the world economy turns
> desperately downward. In the US alone, more than 2.5m jobs were lost in the
> ...


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## Julia (31 March 2009)

Happy said:


> With the first home grant recipients should also get job guarantee for 10 years or so, similar to guarantee of bank deposits for 3 years.



Happy, you're not serious in this proposal are you????


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## Gundini (31 March 2009)

That's it!

I've had enough.....

I gunna jump off a cliff 

PS: and DOW futures up 74.... are they living under a rock?


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## Aussiejeff (1 April 2009)

Gundini said:


> That's it!
> 
> I've had enough.....
> 
> ...




Hahaha! Don't yer just love the contrarian nature of the remaining Raging Bulls On Steroids?

IMO there are no "smart" or "cautious" "investors" left in the markets. What we are seeing is primarily those Bully Beasts who have managed to survive to this point (courtesy of having bigger, deeper pockets than those who have fallen by the punter's wayside), who of course are convinced that the ever-worsening world economic outlook is some sort of conspiracy or con trick and that consequently, NOW is really THE time to buy up stocks bigtime.

So I would expect these "illogical" Bull Runs to keep escaping into the paddock no matter how bad the "conspiratorial economic blurb" gets.

Interesting, ain't it?



Go Bull$!

PS: I just had a thought - maybe just knowing we have three of the Greatest Leaders The Modern Civilized World Has Ever Known (Mr Obama, Mr Obama-Rudd & Mr Obama-Brown) is enough to inspire waves of optimism to wash away our woes. Mmmmmmm..... Ommmmmmmm.....


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## Happy (1 April 2009)

Julia said:


> Happy, you're not serious in this proposal are you????




Julia, I wish I wasn’t.

Reading between the lines there were hints that struggling home owners will be looked after much better than subprime victims in USA.

If brown matter hits the fan (sorry UK PM for the pun) to avoid having tens of thousands of vacant houses that owners could not afford to pay and nobody is interested to rent, some intervention from Government is almost inevitable especially that so many billions were happily spent to save the big end of town.


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## Temjin (1 April 2009)

Gundini said:


> That's it!
> 
> I've had enough.....
> 
> ...




Remember, daily movement in the stock markets are simply noise. Look at the trend instead. 



> The forecasts will make uncomfortable reading, especially for those still in denial about the need for stimulatory packages




That's bulls--t. I'm in denial about the need for stimulus packages simply because I do not think they will work at all. If people are laid off because of over-capacity, then they should be laid off and fed for themselves. Free market at its best.


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## White_Knight (1 April 2009)

Happy said:


> With the first home grant recipients should also get job guarantee for 10 years or so, similar to guarantee of bank deposits for 3 years.





One of the most brainless things i have ever read.


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## Happy (1 April 2009)

White_Knight said:


> One of the most brainless things i have ever read.




How did you take then 3 years guarantee for bank deposits?


Ah, late welcome to the forum and I got impression that you don't read much


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## Glen48 (1 April 2009)

In USA Bank are refusing to foreclose because thy don't want the properties in their hands due to the councils, who are broke wanting money, chasing the bank to repair broken down/vanalised houses/unpaid rates etc.
One woman had her investment property repo'd and then the banks decide they didn't want and gave it back to her she is now responsible for the over due rates and upkeep.
Free housing in God's country


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## tommymac (1 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> IMO there are no "smart" or "cautious" "investors" left in the markets.





I agree fully with you AussieJeff. Take the example of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp in the US. The PBGC protects employees Defined Benefits should their company go bankrupt. Hence it needs to be pretty cautious with its investments. So months before the crash, it decides to invest billions in shares.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/30/pension_insurer_shifted_to_stocks/?page=full

No surprise its not providing any details.


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## Julia (1 April 2009)

Temjin said:


> That's bulls--t. I'm in denial about the need for stimulus packages simply because I do not think they will work at all. If people are laid off because of over-capacity, then they should be laid off and fed for themselves. Free market at its best.



Well, Temjin, it seems the IMF doesn't share your view.  On today's Radio National's  "The World Today", the head of the IMF declared that Australia's stimulus was "the best in the world" and "the most effective".  "Australia was a shining example to the rest of the world, could afford to spend more" etc etc.   I can just see our fearless leader's chest swell with pride.

So there you go.

Meantime, suggestion exists that in the coming federal Budget, spending will be slashed, e.g. the existing scheme which allows people with large number of prescriptions to get these free after they have spent X amount p.a. will be axed.

So here we have logic and fairness at its absolute best, do we not?
Penalise sick people so that Rudd & Co get a quick blip in the quarterly figures from handout money being spent on frivolities.
Meantime, hospitals lack sufficient beds, schools lack good teachers etc etc.


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## kincella (1 April 2009)

I am beginning to think this whole thing has been blown out of proportion....the figures coming out for OZ are nowhere near as bad as all the media and doomsdayers were calling...
3 new world leaders...all newbies...going to how many G20, or G7 or whatever conferences held so far....for a party and and a photo shoot...
oh and there is another planned for next month....like how many conferences do they need...

I think its all a trumped up fabrication ....all the bigger companies crying poor...so they can get a govt handout.....
it will all prove to be nothing like all the kids and scaredy cats are making it out to be....
its another 'year 2000' scarey moment...that phizzes out

in the meantime...more regulation from govt's...and the banks scoring all those commercial properties.....ready for the next time they set up a trust for you to invest in...while they take more of your money...

I am not one for conspiracy theories.....but all this hype spread over the net....and all those old and new  guru's coming out of hibernation.....extreme stories and apparently believed by many as gospel......makes me wonder...
:sheep:
Barack Obama and the Strategy of Manufactured Crisis
By James Simpson
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html


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## gfresh (1 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> If ever there was a sure thing this is it, and the RBA ??? wouldnt listen to a word they say, they live on the 68th floor of a building somewhere away from reality.




RBA was saying a +0.5% growth rate in February.. 

Yesterday they come out and say Australia is already in recession, and we will not avoid several quarters of negative growth. 

So they're hardly on top of their predictions.

Posters here were saying a recession was almost a certainty 12 months ago..



Happy said:


> If brown matter hits the fan (sorry UK PM for the pun) to avoid having tens of thousands of vacant houses that owners could not afford to pay and nobody is interested to rent, some intervention from Government is almost inevitable especially that so many billions were happily spent to save the big end of town.




But surely you run the risk of hindering the natural repair process.. as we've seen in the US eventually houses that are not needed fall by the wayside, are abandoned as scrap, and what is left of able buyers start stepping forward to buy what they can at cheap prices. On the whole as prices come down (rental or purchase) you actually enable more to afford them in the longer-term in the changed economy as it redevelops itself.. as prices adjust to what that level of employment/wages can actually pay for across the board. These prices may be much lower than they were in the past, but it's all relative. 

When everybody is dead broke, and everything has been destroyed, the only way is up from there. Some of the best growth periods throughout history have followed on from great wars for instance.


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## Happy (1 April 2009)

Julia said:


> Well, Temjin, it seems the IMF doesn't share your view.  On today's Radio National's  "The World Today", the head of the IMF declared that Australia's stimulus was "the best in the world" and "the most effective".  "Australia was a shining example to the rest of the world, could afford to spend more" etc etc.   I can just see our fearless leader's chest swell with pride.
> 
> ..




Oppositon seems to disagree




> From ABC, 1 Apr. 09
> 
> OECD FIGURES SHOW 'FLASH FLOOD' STIMULUS NOT WORKING
> 
> ...





But, come to think about it, opposition cannot agree and oppose at the same time, can they?


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## Uncle Festivus (1 April 2009)

kincella said:


> I am not one for conspiracy theories.....but all this hype spread over the net....and all those old and new guru's coming out of hibernation.....extreme stories and apparently believed by many as gospel......makes me wonder...
> :sheep:




Yes, they are extreme stories, apparently spread by the US Fed no less, which sorta turns them into facts. Have a look at some of the 'scary' charts at the Fed's own website - Alfred - then decide if it's all smoke & mirrors.

http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/

Job losses - clearly not your ordinary recession?
Federal Debt - clearly insolvent?
Unemployed - 12.5 MILLION and increasing at 600k per month
World population - somethings gonna give? The unemployed masses will riot for food & justice, or just plain anarchy?

Your 'beer & skittles' view somehow indicates that Australia won't be affected somehow??


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## kincella (1 April 2009)

sounds like the 'manufactored crisis' some have been working on to bring to fruition
:sheep:


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## derty (1 April 2009)

kincella said:


> I am not one for conspiracy theories.....but all this hype spread over the net....and all those old and new  guru's coming out of hibernation.....extreme stories and apparently believed by many as gospel......makes me wonder...
> :sheep:
> Barack Obama and the Strategy of Manufactured Crisis
> By James Simpson
> http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html



"I am not one for conspiracy theories.....but" - ROFL

lol - that piece could have been written by Bill O'Reilly himself. Nice to see a bit of objective journalism. Bring back Bush, he'll fix things.


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## kincella (1 April 2009)

:sheep:     :sheep:         :sheep:     :sheep:

heres just one link to what the 'scaredy cats' the OECD were scaremongering the community way back in Oct 1998.....
I guess I could go and find a similar reaction to any other crisis in the past 10 years....I guess an over reaction is the way to go...regardless.... panick has such a nice sound to it 

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/60/2/1910684.pdf


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## metric (1 April 2009)

well, i AM one for conspiracy theories. and most of them havesome merit. as does the theory that the fed knew what they were creating...and have a cure just a waitin for it....


.


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## Aussiejeff (1 April 2009)

metric said:


> well, i AM one for conspiracy theories. and most of them havesome merit. as does the theory that the fed knew what they were creating...and have a cure just a waitin for it....
> 
> 
> .




We already know.

It's called "Chimerica". 

or could that be "Amina"?


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## tommymac (1 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> We already know.
> 
> It's called "Chimerica".
> 
> or could that be "Amina"?




People's United States Republic of Chimerica


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## Glen48 (1 April 2009)

By this I mean our methods for getting food, for moving about the landscape, for deploying capital, for trading and manufacturing, for schooling, doctoring, and running public services all destabilize and, to some degree or other, fail to deliver their contribution to normal daily life. Banking (capital deployment) is already mortally wounded. It remains to be seen how this will affect the food supply half a year ahead in the harvest system. Capital is as big an “input” for our method of farming as diesel fuel or fertilizers made from methane gas. The failure of banking will combine with city and state insolvency to crush public transit, law enforcement, fire protection, and whatever flimsy local safety nets exist to keep the ultra-poor and helpless from die-off. The lowering of living standards by 20 to 50 percent essentially eliminates all but the must critical commerce, meaning that mos t of the stores in the malls and strip malls lose their customers and shed employees, while the mall and strip mall owners lose their rents, and the bankers lose performing commercial real estate loans. As all this occurs, tax revenues go way down, schools can’t pay their employees or buy diesel fuel for their yellow bus fleets. More people lose the ability to carry health insurance. Hospital emergency rooms are overwhelmed. Health care descends to Third World levels. Meanwhile, pensions are destroyed, the elderly live on dog food and ketchup…

This is where we’re headed. It could easily be worse than the 1930s, when we still had plenty of family farms, plenty of oil, plenty of factories in good running order, and a highly regimented population of workers unaccustomed to luxury, leisure, and entitlement. We’ve hardly begun to see the potential political repercussions of economic disorder now underway. I think it will start to show in a big way not long after Memorial Day, when the current false euphoric Wall Street rally ends in yet another pool of tears, and the despair trickles downward. A crucial piece of the outcome depends on what happens over at Attorney General Eric Holder’s Justice Department ”” which lately seems to have seceded from the federal government. A peeved public is going to start wondering why the bankers and insurers have not been called in by the criminal division to do a little ‘splainin&rs quo;. As the spring yields to summer, the Obama team’s current fix-it plans are also likely to have run out of credibility. Mr. O better be prepared to get a new game.

I spent the weekend at the yearly Aspen Institute Environmental Forum ”” a confab lately devoted about equally to the energy and climate fiascos. It’s a peculiar exercise, since major sponsors include the oil and gas companies and the auto industry. The Saturday center-ring panel on peak oil, for instance, was shockingly weak, led by the flack from the Shell corporation, a charming lady, highly-skilled at blowing green smoke up the public’s ass. Even more shocking is the consensus among the presenters and attendees ”” including the hotshots of climate and energy science and the elder statespersons of environmentalism ”” that the energy problem merely amounts to finding other means for running all our cars. The assumption that we must remain car-dependent remains absolutely entrenched among these people who ought to know better. Of course, the words “public transit&rdqu o; were barely uttered. It’s disappointing to find such idiocy among this particular elite.

Whiskey and Gunpowder


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## noirua (18 May 2009)

Workers at the UK's Honda plant have accepted an agreement for earnings to be cut by 3% and managers will suffer a bigger cut at 5%. This will safeguard 490 jobs.

Perhaps that's the way to go.


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## MrBurns (18 May 2009)

noirua said:


> Workers at the UK's Honda plant have accepted an agreement for earnings to be cut by 3% and managers will suffer a bigger cut at 5%. This will safeguard 490 jobs.
> 
> Perhaps that's the way to go.




The unions wouldnt allow that here.
Rudds sucker FHB cant afford to drop 1c in wages
3% wouldnt save most companies anyway, it's more serious than that.

It makes sense so the Labor Govt would object on principal.


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