# AEV - Avenira Limited



## yogi-in-oz (8 October 2006)

Hi folks,

MAK is scheduled to list this week, on 10102006,
with the following astroanalysis:

     10-18102006 ..... underlying negativity

        16102006 ..... minor

     19-23102006 ..... 2 cycles may bring a big slide???

        23102006 ..... more negative news ... ???

     03-06112006 ..... same price as 23102006 ... ???   

     10-13112006 ..... negative cycle (finances???)

        15112006 ..... negative spotlight on MAK

     24-27112006 ..... significant and neagtive ???
                       Possible longer-term changes here.

        04122006 ..... significant and negative news,
                       same price as 23102006 ... ???

        05122006 ..... minor

        15122006 ..... minor

        22122006 ..... minor

        29122006 ..... significant and positive

     05-08012007 ..... minor

     11-12012007 ..... 2 cycles = very significant & positive news???          

        22012007 ..... significant and negative - finances???

   2401-06022007 ..... underlying negative cycle.

Overall, NOT very exciting prospects ahead, over
the next few months ..... 

happy days

 yogi



=====


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## YOUNG_TRADER (19 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm not sure what Yogi saw,

But heres what I see, 


*MAK*
*
Mkt Structure*
*
Shares*
50m + 10m 30c 31/12/08 options
So 50m fully diluted UNTIL 30c
Mkt Cap @ 20c = $10m
Mkt Cap @ 40c = $24m
Mkt Cap @ 60c = $36m
*
Cash*
$2.75m + $3m from opies = *$2.75m - $5.75m*


*
Projects*
*
Fraser Iron Project* Magenite Iron, 100%, W.A.
*5km's to the East Grange (Mkt cap $150m+) has outlined JORC of 458Mt@37% Magenite Fe over 6km's*

MAK has 2x4km + 1x1km targets that appear to mirror Grange's and will be drill tested soon.

*

Tasmanian Tin and Tungsten * Tin and Tungsten, 100%, Tasmania

*Calims to have the 2nd Largest Tin Inventory of any ASX Listed Stock (See ann's)*

Drilling very soon 


*
Summary*
Enough cash to see it through this round of exploration,

A similar Magenite Discovery next door to Grange would be huge and almost guarantee a take over from Grange,

The Tin Tunsten looks interseting, needs JORC to back up the claim of 2nd Largest Tin Inventory of any ASX Listed Stock.

*Very Spec but highly leveraged to success*


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## wahoo (20 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey YT - nice timing - off with a bang this mornin! 

Good article just out in the australian

".....Mr Drummond points to the other main world suppliers: Syria, Libya, Israel and Moroccan-occupied Western Sahara.

Minemakers is counting on buyers being interested in finding other sources where the political risk is lower, so it's no surprise that the company is already talking to an Asian trading company." Robin Brumby

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21246564-5005200,00.html


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## YOUNG_TRADER (24 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Drill rig should be moving on site today to test the Fraser Iron Project,

I think 3 Diamond drill holes are to be drilled, remember if they find Magenite Iron watch out as 5km's to the east Grange Resources (Mkt cap $150m+) has outlined JORC of 458Mt@37% Magenite Fe over 6km's


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## Sean K (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Market cap seems pretty low for something that claims to have the largest combined tin and tungsten position in Australia (Aberfoyle and Storey's Creek in Tassie). 

Should ann both the Fraser Iron drilling and the Aberfoyle drilling commencement in the next 2 days according to their anns.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Market cap seems pretty low for something that claims to have the largest combined tin and tungsten position in Australia (Aberfoyle and Storey's Creek in Tassie).
> 
> Should ann both the Fraser Iron drilling and the Aberfoyle drilling commencement in the next 2 days according to their anns.




Hey Kenna,

You know much about Tin Tungsten?

I'm not that cluey re who the majors are in Aus re Tin Tungsten, nor do I know where the really prospective Tin Tungsten areas of Aus are,

Could it actually have the 2nd Largest ASX inventory of Tin Tungsten? I couldn't find a JORC though   

You?


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## Sean K (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Not sure about other producers. 

MAK have a pretty good web site. I like a company with a good web site.   

Here's some info on the Tin - Tungstan tenaments they've picked up and info on the resource:

*TUNGSTEN & TIN PRICE OVERVIEW*

After the collapse of the tin producer cartels in the early 1980s, the tin price declined. However, it rose strongly in 2003 and its future seems assured. It is generally considered that the long-term outlook for tin is very positive as identified supplies seem less than projected demand and there is already a significant supply deficit. Until recently, the tungsten price has been fairly stable, with China supplying most of world demand. However in 2005, that country was not able to do so and prices have increased dramatically. Minemakers has a positive view on the future tungsten price in light of world consumption growth, Western mine closures and Chinese export limitations. 

*TENEMENTS & EQUITY POSITION*

Minemakers has purchased outright Allstrong Investments Pty Ltd which wholly owns granted Exploration Licences 27/2004, 28/2004 and 29/2004 and has an option to purchase 55M/1989 over the historic Anchor mine. 

*AUSTRALIAN SIZE CONTEXT*

This area of northeastern Tasmania is one of Australia’s premier tungsten and tin mining fields and Minemakers’ tenements cover all of its major hard-rock mining centres. 

*HISTORY AND OUTLOOK*

The Rossarden or Avoca (containing Storey’s Creek and Aberfoyle), the Upper Scamander and the Anchor or Blue Tiers mining centres in the tenements have historically produced from hard-rock mining about 25,000 t of Sn and 18,000 t of WO3. At recent prices of AUD11,000/t for Sn, and AUD250/metric tonne unit of tungsten oxide (WO3), this equates to a value of over $600M. Production spanned the interval from the 1891 to 1982. Tin quotas in the 1980s and then prolonged weak tin prices caused closure of the mines and the abandonment of the patchwork of smaller tenements which had characterized these mining fields. With minor exceptions, Minemakers has obtained clear title to all of the major fields and deposits in the district. While Minemakers initially intends to concentrate on the old mines, from an exploration viewpoint in due course this will allow the Company to seek further deposits by modern exploration methods without the encumbrance of a fragmented landholding. Significant prospects are evident from the historical reports and plans and exploration success will lead to production longevity. 

*CURRENT RESOURCES*

Further details are presented in the discussions on the individual deposits. 

*ABERFOYLE*

In a conceptual pit to a depth of 110m, a pre-JORC resource estimate of 5.5 Mt @ 0.1% Sn @ 0.06% WO3 was made. This covers only a zone around the main old underground workings and Minemakers perceives considerable upside along strike and nearby. 

*LUTWYCHE*

A pre-JORC estimate of 1.1Mt @ 0.45% tungsten and 0.45% tin is recorded. A shaft to about 40m depth accesses this deposit. 

*GREAT PYRAMID*

Depending on cut-offs used pre-JORC, resources were estimated at between 3.0 and 8.3 Mt @ 0.22% - 0.19% Sn. The system is open in all dimensions and its location on a hill and ridge favours the economics of an open cut mining operation. 

*ROYAL GEORGE*

Based on historic drilling, a pre-JORC inferred resource of 1.2 Mt @ 0.34% Sn was estimated and this is open at depth and along strike. The topography again favours a future open cut operation. 

*STOREY’S CREEK*

The Storey’s Creek mine has lesser surface drilling. However, the extent of stockwork mineralization exposed at surface and indicated in historic plans of old workings and drillholes leads to strong optimism that a large resource, amenable to open-cut mining, can be defined.


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## Sean K (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Good to see a new mining company with a solid management team too:

http://www.minemakers.com.au/corp_dir.php

I have a current market cap at about $8.5m. Is that right?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey Kenna,

$8.5m mkt cap sounds about right

Thanks for the info, looks like they really do have some cool Tin and Tungsten projects going, happy I'm in, especially since recent listing Wolf Minerals has a mkt cap of $20m, at $20m MAK = 33.5c

And then MAK does have the spec upside from the Magenite Iron Ore project


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## mmmmining (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Very interesting company, with some not so fashionable minerals, such as phosphate, salt and Fluorite, in addition to t$in, tungsten, iorn ore, nickel and gold.

I like Phosphate, for fertilizer linked to soft commodities - another group of commodities need attention;

I like Fluorite, for processing uranium

But the price action is a bit of strange. The relay suddenly lost momentum, and no one is interested in it ATM.

With approx 26m tradeable and another 26m non-tradeable shares (incl 0.1c option), and 12m options at 30c, it is a very small company with a lot of goodies. I might throw in some money to generate interests, or should I wait?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Up to you mmmmining,

But holy cow have you got your synergies sorted out! 1+1 = 11!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  :


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## Sean K (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

What sort of value do you guys see in the 30 cent 31 Dec 08 options currently around 5 cents?

Current sp 17 cents. Bit of a way to go to be in the money, but Dec 08 gives them plenty of time...

Good drill results in this climate should give it some support....


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I hold 100k MAKO paid around 5.5c for them I think,

I know there well out of the money, but I find that with plays like MAK and there are a few, if you take the higher risk higher leverage approach, you onl need it to pay off 1 in say 10 times to make it worthwhile, ie if MAK strike large zone of Magenite Iron I'd expect SP to rocket to 60c+

So buy $5.5k of shares at 17c =  32.5k shares, at 60c = $19.5k profit = $14k

Buy $5.5k opies = 100k @ 5.5c SP 60c = opies 30c + = $30k profit = $24.5k

I know way higher risk but I prefer leverage, but thats just me


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## mmmmining (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Up to you mmmmining,
> 
> But holy cow have you got your synergies sorted out! 1+1 = 11!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  :



Believe it or not 1+1=11 is the same as 1+1=3, figure it out?

Kennas did pointed it out the option price. I noticed some out of money options for junior explorers is priced highly, while the other in the money options are traded at discount. I guess because of liquidity issue.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> Believe it or not 1+1=11 is the same as 1+1=3, figure it out?




Mining if you drink and trade your a bloody idiot!  : (Joking joking   )


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Attached Image of upcoming Iron Drilling and nearby Magenite Deposit


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## skegsi (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

posting images now YT?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				skegsi said:
			
		

> posting images now YT?




Yep,

Now that I know how to do it, whenever its relevant I shall,

The above picture explains what MAK is going after much better than I could in words,

What are your thoughts of the radiometrics?


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## skegsi (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Just been surfing through looking at your new posts so I know nahsing about MAK... or radiometrics at that.
I knew you were pretty happy getting the map on BLZ up and just thought I'd give you a few kudos on this one.

cheers mate
keep up the good work


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## mmmmining (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Mining if you drink and trade your a bloody idiot!  : (Joking joking   )



You must be a Victorian. I have seen it posted on the road side.

MAK down a cent, I might wait for a couple of more days until I have seen some indication of any strength in price. 

But I have to admit the fundamental is excellent, I just need an entry point.


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## nizar (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Mining if you drink and trade your a bloody idiot!  : (Joking joking   )





YT, thats a great call!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

LOL, yeah I'm a Melbournian, 
After eading your post I wasn't sure if you were sober at the time of typing, of course I could be bad at riddles   


			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> Believe it or not 1+1=11 is the same as 1+1=3, figure it out?





On a serious note, anyone here have experinece with Iron Ore radiometric surveys etc?

The picture certainly shows similarities and it appears to be a broken continuation of a channel, but then I look at U radiometrics and can't figure them out,

Since we have no update, it doesn't appear as if drilling has started yet


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## cuttlefish (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

binary right?  1+1=11 (= 3)


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## dubiousinfo (26 February 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> On a serious note, anyone here have experinece with Iron Ore radiometric surveys etc?
> 
> The picture certainly shows similarities and it appears to be a broken continuation of a channel, but then I look at U radiometrics and can't figure them out,
> 
> Since we have no update, it doesn't appear as if drilling has started yet




YT
Try sending a PM to Exgeo.


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## Sean K (2 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

No ann yet on drilling at Fraser and NE Tassie. I hope they're not one of these company's that sets dates for things and doesn't deliver. Perhaps it's not a good time to be releasing good anns anyway.   Potentially more effect when the bulls come out from hiding.


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## Sean K (7 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MOU signed with some Austrian outfit to assess NE Tassie tenaments for "the area to support a new production era". 

Very dissapointed however that in the ann they claim that drilling would commense at the end of the month as announced on 14 Feb. Actually, the 14 Feb ann stated that they would be "testing its aberfoyle tin-tungsten project at the end of the month". That means the end of FEB to me. Poor darts Minemakers. Disappointing.


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## Sean K (8 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> MOU signed with some Austrian outfit to assess NE Tassie tenaments for "the area to support a new production era".
> 
> Very dissapointed however that in the ann they claim that drilling would commense at the end of the month as announced on 14 Feb. Actually, the 14 Feb ann stated that they would be "testing its aberfoyle tin-tungsten project at the end of the month". That means the end of FEB to me. Poor darts Minemakers. Disappointing.



Ann out. Drilling commenced at Fraser and Tassie. In they ann they correct the 'error' that stated drilling would occur at the end of this month. The MD needs to have someone check his work before releasing things to the public.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Agree Kenna, but at least drilling has finally started


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## mmmmining (8 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

So we expecting results by the end of this month. Good time to speculate the upside? 

I like particularly the Tin project, the favorable metal recently.

Still, the price action is kind of strange. Anyway, for a tight held stock, The drilling results could change everything,  and price could move very fast, either up or down with big volume.


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## Sean K (8 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> So we expecting results by the end of this month. Good time to speculate the upside?
> 
> I like particularly the Tin project, the favorable metal recently.
> 
> Still, the price action is kind of strange. Anyway, for a tight held stock, The drilling results could change everything,  and price could move very fast, either up or down with big volume.



I'm not sure about the end of the month. They just stated they have started drilling. "drilling results will be available a few weeks after drilling is completed".

This looks to potentially be a multi mineral/project company across Australia with well defined target areas hosting known mineralisation. 

Obviously very early days, and speccie, but so far I like what I see. 

Great web site too.   

http://www.minemakers.com.au/


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## YOUNG_TRADER (11 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Investors packing into tin
Robin Bromby 
March 08, 2007 

SUDDENLY, it seems, tin's the thing to be in. The latest recruit is diamond and ruby miner Cluff Resources Pacific, which yesterday picked up three historic tin mining sites in NSW.
*With the metal trading at a stratospheric $US13,300 a tonne, and expected to go on Monday to $US20,000*, investors are starting to forget the disappointments of recent years, notably the closure of the big Renison Bell mine in Tasmania and the collapse of Marlborough Resources in NSW. 
Stonehenge Metals successfully floated late last year on the basis of tin (along with nickel and zinc) targets in Tasmania. 

Renison's owner, Metals X, is not only planning to reopen that mine this year but expects any day to get Tasmanian government clearance to go ahead with plans to mine at historic Mt Bischoff, one of the world's richest mines until underground work stopped in 1914. 

The only way for Australian tin production to go is up. Metals X, formed by the merger of Bluestone Tin and Metals Exploration, is the country's biggest player even though its Collingwood mine in far north Queensland is producing barely 4000 tonnes a year. 

Metals X is the vehicle for well-known mining figures Peter Cook and Peter "Talky" Newton, who previously sold two gold producers, Hill 50 and Abelle, to South Africa's Harmony Gold. 

*In another development yesterday, Minemakers said a large Austrian commodities firm, Wolfram Bergbau und Hutten, was investigating a joint venture to develop its tin and tungsten projects in Tasmania, including one operated by the former Aberfoyle. * 

Tin's price has just set an 18-year record on the London Metal Exchange as stocks continue to fall. The supply tightness is caused by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal miners, which led to the closure of one of the two big refiners, PT Koba, because it was suspected of buying from unlicensed sources. 

On Monday, ITRI (formerly the International Tin Research Institute) said the metal could go as high as $US20,000 a tonne as Indonesia's war on illegal miners reduces tin exports from the leading producer. ITRI, which has been analysing the metal for 74 years, says Indonesian production will fall 30 per cent this year to 90,000 tonnes.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK got a small mention in this weeks Speculator 


_Minemakers (ASX code: MAK). BluGrass, of course, hopes to eliminate the use of incandescent light bulbs and with it the tungsten universally used in the lamp filament. Minemakers, on the other hand, is focused on re-opening a tungsten-tin prospect in Tasmania. Minemakers, with 40.4 million issued shares trading at 18c, is capitalised at $7.2m. While I'm not ready to chase them yet, tungsten still has a big market in machine tools, chemicals and alloys and it will be many years before the lights go out on this heavyweight of hard metals._


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## Sean K (26 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Fraser Iron, WA

MAK have intersected 'strong magnetite mineralisation' from initial drilling at the West Southdown project which is interpreted to be an extention of Granges Southdown megnetite deposit, with the strike length over 8km. The essays are expected in about a month. 

The Southdown deposit has a resource estimate of 458m tns of magnetite ore grading 37%.

Anyone else following this and care to comment on the gradings and the type of deposit here. 

Pretty early days here.

(holding some options)


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> A similar Magenite Discovery next door to Grange would be huge and almost guarantee a take over from Grange,



Are you still thinking takeover YT. Probably doubtful considering their other projects. Maybe a JV? Speculation of course, but would get the project running if a resource is proved here, which looks likely by the drilling. 

Market cap still looks pretty undemanding at $7.5m ish. Perhaps it's there for a reason....ie, very early stages of the companys development..


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kenna,

So far the drilling has shown large "visual" intercepts of Magnetite Iron Ore, assays are due back in 1 month, if they confirm large hits of Magnetite Iron Ore thus confirming an extension of Grange's deposit I'd expect a JV at the least, 

This stock is already undervalued given it probably one of the best exposures to the Tin market, evidenced by the fact that "a large Austrian commodities firm, Wolfram Bergbau und Hutten, was investigating a joint venture to develop its tin and tungsten projects in Tasmania, including one operated by the former Aberfoyle."


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## Sean K (26 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Kenna,
> 
> So far the drilling has shown large "visual" intercepts of Magnetite Iron Ore, assays are due back in 1 month, if they confirm large hits of Magnetite Iron Ore thus confirming an extension of Grange's deposit I'd expect a JV at the least,
> 
> This stock is already undervalued given it probably one of the best exposures to the Tin market, evidenced by the fact that "a large Austrian commodities firm, Wolfram Bergbau und Hutten, was investigating a joint venture to develop its tin and tungsten projects in Tasmania, including one operated by the former Aberfoyle."



Should have some news on the tin drilling soon too. Pretty happy they've scooped up a potential JV parner so quickly for the Tungstan/Tin play. Full agreement to be signed by end of May, if Wolfram are happy with the project potential I assume.

Up 30% but pretty low volume. 

There's been quite a spread in the bid/ask recently. Either no one want to sell, or no one wants to buy.....  LOL. 

(holding options)


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## YOUNG_TRADER (27 March 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

_Tin set a new record high of $14,450, supported by supply concerns at the second largest tin supplier Indonesia. Tin was at $14,400 against its last quote on Friday at $14,325/14,350. “Tin we expect to continue steady,” another LME trader said. The early part of the week could see some consolidation as it was only four days until the end of the quarter and, for some participants, the end of the financial year. _

Having the "2nd largest Tin Inventory of any ASX listed company" (see MAK ann re TIN) would easily underwrite its current puny mkt cap


The Magnetite Iron project just adds A **** LOAD OF ICING TO THE CAKE!


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## Sean K (27 April 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Looks like it's just me and you following this little junior YT.

Quarterly activity report just out, and the only new information is that the drilling at the Aberfoyle Tassie Tin Project was completed with visible tin mineralisation intersected and asseys are awaited. Looks prospective. Also, the MOU with Wolfram is being worked into a JV pending their assessment of the feasibility of the projects to be turned into an economical mining region. Looks good on the surface of things.

Asseys still awaited from the West Southdown Project and a drill hole at Franklin. The target areas on the aeromagnetic maps in the report look pretty promising. 

Looks like they're going through about $400K a quarter and have $2.5m left in the bank so they're set for a little longer. 

About 60m shares on issue fully diluted gives it a cap of about $9m. 

The asseys due could be a catalyst for rerating one way or the other.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (27 April 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey Kenna,

Lots of new Info in there

*MAK*​*
Mkt Structure*
*
Shares*
50m + 10m 30c 31/12/08 options
So 50m fully diluted UNTIL 30c
Mkt Cap @ 15c = $7.5m Current
Mkt Cap @ 30c = $18m
Mkt Cap @ 45c = $27m Target
*
Cash*
$2.75m + $3m from opies = *$2.75m - $5.75m*


*
Projects*
*
Fraser Iron Project* Magenite Iron, 100%, W.A.
*5km's to the East Grange (Mkt cap $150m+) has outlined JORC of 458Mt@37% Magenite Fe over 6km's*

MAK has 2x4km + 1x1km targets that appear to mirror Grange's and will be drill tested soon.

"The results have supported Minemakers’ conceptual model that its tenement hosts a western extension of the major Southdown magnetite iron deposit. Grange Resources Limited has announced that the Southdown deposit has a resource estimate of *458 million tonne of magnetite ore grading 37%*. The West Southdown mineralization is visually similar to that at Southdown, but the extent of the deposit has yet to be defined by drilling. Results from the Stage 1 drilling have shown that magnetite gneisses were intersected over downhole intervals of around 150m with the main magnetite mineralization being in intervals of 10–15m. *Assays are expected shortly.*

*

Tasmanian Tin and Tungsten * Tin and Tungsten, 100%, Tasmania

"Minemakers owns outright the largest historic production combined tin and tungsten province in Australia. *Its tin resources are considered to be the second largest and its tungsten resources the third ranked for all ASX listed companies*."

*ABERFOYLE PROJECT (Subject to Wolfram MOU)*
This old underground mine has historically produced 19,000t of tin and 6,000t of tungstate in concentrates, valued at about $450M in today’s prices. *An initial 12 hole, 1,263m RC drilling programme was completed *during the quarter. Wolfram has agreed to contribute $120,000 towards the cost of the programme. It aimed to establish the degree of remnant mineralization in the historically mined area. Future programmes will test along strike. In the drilling, quartz – which hosts the tin/tungsten mineralization – was frequently encountered and tin was recovered in panned samples. *Assay results will be available shortly.*

*
STOREY’S CREEK PROJECT (Subject to Wolfram MOU)*

Storey’s Creek was one of Australia’s most productive historic tungsten mining centres.
Old underground mining recovered 12,000t of tungstate and 2,000t of tin in concentrates with a current value of $300M. As at Aberfoyle, Minemakers is appraising the potential for an open cut operation over the old mine, where the footprint of mineralization is around 1,200m x 300m. A major programme of digitization of the historic mining and drilling data has been completed and 3-D modelling is nearing completion.
Sites for an initial  ±30 hole, 4000m RC programme have been selected and Mines and Resources Tasmania (“MRT”) is currently conducting their drill clearance investigation process. A drilling rig has been booked for June.


*ANCHOR AND GREAT PYRAMID PROJECTS (Minemakers 100% Equity)*Significant resources, as follows, have been previously estimated based on extensive
drilling programmes by earlier explorers and producers.
*Anchor
8.8Mt @ 0.18% tin (low grade cut-off)
0.6Mt @ 0.47% tin (higher grade cut-off)*
*Great Pyramid
8.2Mt @ 0.19% tin (low grade cut-off)
2.5Mt @ 0.31% tin (higher grade cut-off)*
*
ROYAL GEORGE*
Data review and inspection of core held at MRT has indicated that the previous resource estimates, e.g. *1.2Mt @ 0.34% tin or 0.6Mt @ 0.4% tin*, have predominantly considered a high grading operation concentrating on the main greisen. It is evident that there is additional lower grade mineralization in lesser, sub-parallel greisen zones, and this is likely to enhance the viability of a future open cut operation feeding ore to a mill sited near Aberfoyle.


*
Summary*
Enough cash to see it through this round of exploration,

A similar Magenite Discovery next door to Grange would be huge and almost guarantee a take over from Grange,

This appears to be the best exposure to the Tin Market by far, so undervalued and Wolfram have realised this, will take some time, but once development options are chosen this could be a multi bagger

DYOR


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## ta2693 (1 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

"Its tin resources are considered to be the second largest and its tungsten resources the third ranked for all ASX listed companies."

YT, may I ask who has the first largest tin resource and first largest tungsten resource?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ta2693 said:


> "Its tin resources are considered to be the second largest and its tungsten resources the third ranked for all ASX listed companies."
> 
> YT, may I ask who has the first largest tin resource and first largest tungsten resource?




No idea, I got that info "Its tin resources are considered to be the second largest and its tungsten resources the third ranked for all ASX listed companies." directly from the companies announcements


----------



## Caliente (1 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

that would be MLX or Metals X.

btw, YT I am thinking of moving into Tin, just to give the portfolio a bit more flavour. How does MAK look in the short term (3 months) ? 

Especially the iron - isn't 37% magnetite low (?) - i dont really know how to compare magnetite to haematite, the traditional iron source rock.


----------



## ta2693 (1 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

If it is so, then it is my first choice of next investment. I notice JP Morgan is the major holder of MLX, JP Morgan see the value of MLX. Considering the similarity of MLX and MAK, it is must be some value in MAK.
The only thing I am worry about, it is the time. Right now it is in May. Be cautious.


----------



## ta2693 (28 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Unbelievable this company claims to have the second largest tin resources and  the third ranked tungsten resources for all ASX listed companies. This company also has iron mine, salt mine, fluorite mine etc etc. Besides it has 2.5m cash on hand at the end of March. Market cap is only 4m now.


----------



## Sean K (31 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I was actually thinking the past week or so, why hasn't minemakers gone for uranium as well. They're exploring for everything else. 

Where are the drill results from Tassie!!  Come on MAK!

13.6% U  Surely a ramp. LOL.


----------



## Col Lector (31 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gidday Kennas, am in on this one. Thought the announcement might have been one of those promised over the last few months...but no. 
Is this ann. just a sweetener to get market attention prior to the release of more significant announcements? eg, the agreement with German party; or god-forbid, some actual drill results. 
Alternatively maybe a means to coverup their apparent lack of activity. I mean....INL is slow....these guys are glacial (not good in the current environment!).
However the market cap around 5mill does allow for plenty of upside if /when they come good.
BTW am in BPT too....in at 1.08 & topped up at 1.36....so enjoying the ride& expect it to continue


----------



## ta2693 (31 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The company has just 5 million market cap. I think it has really nothing much to lose even in the worst case.


----------



## Sean K (31 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> Thought the announcement might have been one of those promised over the last few months...but no.
> 
> Is this ann. just a sweetener to get market attention prior to the release of more significant announcements? eg, the agreement with German party; or god-forbid, some actual drill results.
> 
> ...



Yes, the assays from Southdown and are dragging and an update from Tassie has been anticipated for weeks. 

I have noticed that these guys, while not announcing every rock they kick over, are quiety going about there business. Since listing they have initiated quite a few things and have projects all over the shop. They are all 'in play' and they've manage to get the contractors and partners required to take these things forward. I'm still confident that we'll see some steady progress with MAK. 

Check their last quarterly and all the projects they've got cooking.

Highlights:


----------



## Col Lector (31 May 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

gidday Kennas, 
Firstly, apologies to those Austrians out there. Yep agree MAK do seem to be beavering away (so to speak) but spread fairly thin given the number of projects on the table. Actual drill intersections are a key to dispelling any doubts at their grand claims.
Seems likely that Grange would be very interested in taking any magnetite they firm up in WA, given the extent of Granges capex planned. Is there likely to be permitting problems?....I notice MAK's tenements abutt a conservation zone.
Otherwise I like the mineral mix...tungsten& fluorspar could bring big attention if good results eventuate. Tin also likely to continue in the spotlight. 
I was looking at Vital Metals as tungsten exposure but got burnt in Titan Resources debacle, and hence lacked faith in the board of VML (ie, Bill Ryan) to actually get things happening. Not that others had that problem as SP has taken off.
Mincor (I am longterm holder) also has some tungsten prospects for which drill results are overdue.... which may not be a good sign...or maybe just reflects the abundance of activity they are involved in.

Anyway...hopefully the ann today will put MAK on a few peoples radar...tommorrow could see a bit more action from those not in the market today


----------



## stoxclimber (4 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I took a position in this one on Friday..13.6% U?? Worth it for the prospect at $4mm market cap!

Good to see YT likes the companys other projects as well.. it has been range bound but this uranium might be what it needs to get going.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Very comprehensive presentation released today after close, well worth a read,

Company is primarily a solid fundamental exposure to Tin, with spec upside from Magenite Iron Ore and Uranium now as well as Flurite (whatever that is)


----------



## Col Lector (6 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks YT...checked out the presentation. Southdown assays should be interesting when they arrive..particularly with Chinese(?) interest in Grange. Like the phosphate project prospects.
Plenty of Sn & W but how economic to mine? grades are not astounding and spread between mined various deposits....be good to get a JORC resource estimate on what still remains in ground.
Still, could inspire a bit more interest in MAK tommorrow.
The U radiometrics....are you impressed by these?? I am a bit of a novice on that front.


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Another ann out from MAK today. More uranium projects in the pipeline. Golly, what aren't they going to mine? I don't think they have a gold project yet do they? LOL 

I haven't checked the detail on these projects in detail yet. More to follow.


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The radiometrics of the 2 projects look ok. Doesn't mean it's all uranium of course. I tried to load them up, but couldn't get the file size down enough. 

Where are the tin and iron assays MAK?


----------



## Col Lector (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

One for the breakout alert thread methinks. These guys know how to hit the market with juicy announcements....even if they do lack detail/substance. The Southdown Fe assays will just add spice, given that they hinted that good thick magnetite has been drilled....


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> One for the breakout alert thread methinks. These guys know how to hit the market with juicy announcements....even if they do lack detail/substance. The Southdown Fe assays will just add spice, given that they hinted that good thick magnetite has been drilled....



 Col, did you notice the Japanese taking a 30% stake in the Grange Resources, Southdown Project this month? Southdown is now 479Mt @ 37.3% megnetite. We could reasonable expect the Japanese to be casting an eye over the fence to Southdown West when/if it is confirmed to be the extention of that ore body. 

Options have been chased a little this morning. Hopefully not ASF members. They should come back I think for another opportunity.


----------



## Col Lector (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gidday Kennas...Yes....Japanese interest in Grange project (I recalled it as the Chinese....as one does)is virtually a guarantee  the project gets built. Involves big Capex so Grange will want every bit of Fe they can send down that slurry pipeline. 
MAKO currently 0.07. With Dec 08 exercise 30c. Therefore in the money at about 37c. 
Currently holding MAK but keen to stock up on MAKO. At 7c & timeframe to Dec 08 these dont represent bad value. I suppose the danger in holding out for a pullback in MAKO below 0.07 is that another decent announcement (eg, Southdown Fe assays) may set the hare running again.


----------



## greggy (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I was actually thinking the past week or so, why hasn't minemakers gone for uranium as well. They're exploring for everything else.
> 
> Where are the drill results from Tassie!!  Come on MAK!
> 
> 13.6% U  Surely a ramp. LOL.




More info on the Tasmania United Uranium NL Prospect, Rossarden, taken from MAK's announcement dated 31 May 07.
This prospect was discovered in the first uranium boom of the 1950s. It contains very high grade mineralization with past assays attaining as much as 13.6% U3O8, or 300 lbs/tonne.
The mineralization is contained in a fault zone and was followed underground for about 27m. Drilling was limited to only three holes, each of less than 50m length. Further drilling testwork is required. 
Minemakers’ Managing Director, Andrew Drummond, said, “This prospect is characterised by very high grades and its 1950s assessment was hampered by the drilling constraints of the day. We aim to test it in conjunction with drilling of the Company’s flagship Storey’s Creek and Aberfoyle tungsten and tin projects.”
Yes, the 13.6% U3O8 figure was not a misprint.  Its still extremely early days, but if MAK does some drilling and confirms such a high grade then this stock might really take off.  At this stage I don't own any, but whilst I'm here, does anyone know what the attitude of the Tassie govt is towards uranium mining? It seems pro-development to me, but I don't know in relation to uranium.  MAK had a good day today, finishing up 3.5 cents today at 22 cents on reasonable turnover.
DYOR


----------



## Caliente (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> Gidday Kennas...Yes....Japanese interest in Grange project (I recalled it as the Chinese....as one does)is virtually a guarantee  the project gets built. Involves big Capex so Grange will want every bit of Fe they can send down that slurry pipeline.
> MAKO currently 0.07. With Dec 08 exercise 30c. Therefore in the money at about 37c.
> Currently holding MAK but keen to stock up on MAKO. At 7c & timeframe to Dec 08 these dont represent bad value. I suppose the danger in holding out for a pullback in MAKO below 0.07 is that another decent announcement (eg, Southdown Fe assays) may set the hare running again.




Quick question, if the heads are 22 cents, and the option exercise price is 30 cents, how is MAKO "inthemoney" ???

wait - i just realised its a matter of the grammar. "you're saying MAKO will be in the money at 37 cents. Seems thats still a fair way off however."


----------



## Col Lector (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

exactly...i37c plus will be in th money.....therefore if MAK $1.20 (say) by Christmas than MAKO well in the money & paying 0.07 now for MAKO will seem like an extremely astute buy. Crystal ball anyone??


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



greggy said:


> but whilst I'm here, does anyone know what the attitude of the Tassie govt is towards uranium mining? It seems pro-development to me, but I don't know in relation to uranium.



The Tas govt is generally pro-development but there's a lot more to Tassie politics than what the government wants. A LOT more.

A bill to prohibit nuclear power generation and uranium mining in Tas was defeated by both Labor and Liberal yesterday. The bill was put up by the Greens.

Tasmanian premier Paul Lennon has however said that "Tasmania doesn't need nuclear power". A comment that's absolutely correct in a technical sense since in the absence of a very major rise in power demand, a nuclear plant just wouldn't be viable to build. Unlike the mainland states, Tas has a virtually zero ongoing cost renewable supply for over 94% of its electricity (predominantly hydro and a bit of wind). A nuclear plant to supply the other 6% just wouldn't stack up technically or financially.

The Tas government has a strong vested interest in renewables since it is the 100% owner of the Hydro-Electric Corporation, by far the state's largest financial asset with operations in Tas, on the mainland and overseas. The Tas govt has far more to gain from promoting renewables than nuclear energy.

Don't for a moment underestimate the vote swinging capability of energy in Tasmania. It's seen leaders dumped, governments thrown out and at different times both major partys virtually annihilated at the polls. And of course it created the Greens in the first place. 

So I just can't see Labor in Tas easily backing a U mine. They might back it but its not something that would come naturally and not without a lot of thought. It would be like the Pope advocating condoms. Possible but not a natural position to be taking.

Overall, I'd be very surprised to see a proposal for a uranium mine in Tas NOT meet with a response very similar to any of the past major environmental battles such as the Franklin, Wesley Vale etc. Labor may well be in government, but the Greens are undoubtedly a very major force in Tas politics whether elected or not. Both Labor and especially Liberal governments have seen past policies and major projects stopped or at least seriously threatened by the Greens - simply being in government doesn't guarantee anything.

I'd be surprised if appropriately worded triangles aren't already being printed ready for the campaign...


----------



## Col Lector (7 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Largely agree smurf...political hurdles abound. Have a look at PES and see how that fits the more immediate TAS/green agenda


----------



## greggy (8 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Smurf1976 said:


> The Tas govt is generally pro-development but there's a lot more to Tassie politics than what the government wants. A LOT more.
> 
> A bill to prohibit nuclear power generation and uranium mining in Tas was defeated by both Labor and Liberal yesterday. The bill was put up by the Greens.
> 
> ...



That is a shame as its Tasmanian uranium prospects look very prospective with past assays attaining as much as 13.6% U3O8, or 300 lbs/tonne.  Luckily this company is diversified and has quite a number of good prospects.
DYOR


----------



## Col Lector (8 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gidday Greggy...to say these guys are diversified is a touch of an understatement. Definitely to the benefit of SP though...MAK holding up well. I believe that the NT tenements covering both Phosphate & U are the logical place to carve out a U resource. Handy to have the other U prospects (WA/TAS) in the cupboard though. 
I think the Southdown Fe assays should give MAK some upward momentum in the shortterm. Hopefully soon (like today would be nice)...be refreshing to some green amongst raging sea of red


----------



## greggy (8 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> Gidday Greggy...to say these guys are diversified is a touch of an understatement. Definitely to the benefit of SP though...MAK holding up well. I believe that the NT tenements covering both Phosphate & U are the logical place to carve out a U resource. Handy to have the other U prospects (WA/TAS) in the cupboard though.
> I think the Southdown Fe assays should give MAK some upward momentum in the shortterm. Hopefully soon (like today would be nice)...be refreshing to some green amongst raging sea of red



It would perhaps be better if MAK were to wait for a good day before releasing any results so to maximise its effect. This is clearly a stock with strong potential on a number of fronts.
DYOR


----------



## Col Lector (8 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I do agree Greggy...just having a laugh at my predicament today. Ideally MAK SP will hold up & waves of selling subside before it is released to an attentive audience. The release of +ve Fe assay results were flagged in the recent presentation so could happen as soon as next week. Are you onboard this one??


----------



## stoxclimber (8 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Showing strong resilience in the poor markets..I've been on since 19.5c


Company has a sload of projects, they've got to be worth something (although of course results will be the driving factor)


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I should have added to my previous post that mining per se isn't something that causes a great deal of fuss in Tas. As long as it's not in the World Herritage Area or a National Park then it's not really an issue. Hence the zinc, copper, tin, gold, lead etc being mined without any real fuss.

Contrary to popular belief, whilst Tas does not have the massive scale mines that WA etc does mining is nonetheless a substantial industry in the state. Mineral processing, as distinct from actual mining, is by far the state's largest source of exports (most of the ores being processed are produced outside the state). 

So mining itself isn't the problem. Neither is processing. A bit of an issue but not to the point that it would actually be stopped. But Mt Lyell, Rosebery, Savage River, Beaconsfield etc don't mine uranium. And TEMCO, Zinifex and Comalco don't process uranium. Gold can't be used to blow up foreign countries. Paragoethite isn't radioactive. That's the issue - nuclear.

Overall, Tassie is proably 20+ years behind the rest of the country in the uranium debate since it has always been seen as a mainland issue of no real local relevance. It's the reverse of the renewable energy debate - that oil is limited and coal pollutes is an idea that's decades old in Tas but it's only recently attracting attention nationally.


----------



## Col Lector (9 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gidday Smurf, MAK's non-U projects in Tassie are my main area of interest...generally these entail resurrecting old mines (Tin & Tungsten). From a Tassie angle...Are you familiar with the companies PES (coalseam gas for "greener" energy generation) and INL ("recycling" of metals discarded in historic slag-heaps & tailings dams; new efficient metal processing technologies that minimise waste-streams)?? Both have environmental positives that will benefit Tassie over the longerterm and really provide a positive model to which other companies there should aspire to..


----------



## greggy (9 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> I do agree Greggy...just having a laugh at my predicament today. Ideally MAK SP will hold up & waves of selling subside before it is released to an attentive audience. The release of +ve Fe assay results were flagged in the recent presentation so could happen as soon as next week. Are you onboard this one??



Hi Col Lector,

Unfortunately, I missed the boat with this one.  MAK's share price had another good day yesterday in a sea of red.  Positive momentum is continuing.  The iron ore results (when they come out) will be an interesting read.  Its also good that MAK's management likes to keep the market fully informed of its various projects.  I wish more companies out there would do the same. Good luck to all MAK shareholders.
DYOR


----------



## Col Lector (17 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK's MD - Andrew Drummond's Presentation at 2007 AMEC National Mining Congress is able to be heard/viewed at
http://www.brr.com.au/event/MAK/2097/2416197/24161

His talk fleshes out the presentation given mid-last week eg, awaiting overdue assays for both Fe & Sn/W projects; hurdles to be overcome with NT phosphate/Uranium  and Moina fluorite projects...etc. Pretty positive stuff..


----------



## Sean K (17 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> MAK's MD - Andrew Drummond's Presentation at 2007 AMEC National Mining Congress is able to be heard/viewed at
> http://www.brr.com.au/event/MAK/2097/2416197/24161
> 
> His talk fleshes out the presentation given mid-last week eg, awaiting overdue assays for both Fe & Sn/W projects; hurdles to be overcome with NT phosphate/Uranium  and Moina fluorite projects...etc. Pretty positive stuff..



Thanks Col. This is good stuff, cheers. He's pretty frank and confident about being re-rated once the W Southdown numbers come out, and it didn't sound like a ramp to me.  I'm surprised he's directly compared this deposit to Grange's, as I didn't think the anomoly was the same size. Grange market cap $180m, MAK $10m.  He's really ramping the tin/tungsten projects in Tassie!  I should give him an infraction!

PS, his very last comment "if we get one or two of these to work we will go into the stratosphere!" Banned!!!!!!!


----------



## Col Lector (17 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

And Kennas....notice he managed to get that amount of ramping in despite apparently being pushed for time....if he was given another 20 mins I reckon the whole room would have nominated MAK as a top-50 (nay...top-10) stock in 10 years time...


----------



## Sean K (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Still waiting for the Southdown and Tin results. Waiting, waiting. 

Noticed the sellers dry up quite a bit last 2 days. Not sure what that really means, but I suppose less people want to sell. Or, no one is interested. 

Chartwise looks like it could break up from this consolidation. The last big white candle is pretty positive, but volume is way off. 

Will probably only be driven by the news.

(holding)


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Still waiting for the Southdown and Tin results. Waiting, waiting.
> 
> Noticed the sellers dry up quite a bit last 2 days. Not sure what that really means, but I suppose less people want to sell. Or, no one is interested.
> 
> ...




What happened to all the sellers? They just dissappeared! Kennas what happened?

The volume and chart yesterday didn't suggest  that all those sellers got cleared,

And the volume today didn't suggest it,  

What happened to them?


----------



## nizar (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kennas.
When the sell side is this thin you dont need volume to run.

Very tiny market cap stock, the sell depth was totally empty a few mins ago.


----------



## nizar (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

YT.
Can you please get rid of that avatar.
Its really annoying and totally changed my impression of you :
LOL


----------



## stoxclimber (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

YT...there just were NO sellers! Depth had 4-5 sellers all day yesterday. First time I've ever seen it on a stock (with reasonable daily volume etc.) that hadn't run hard the other day.


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

whats making these guys move so much?

I had a look into the company looks like they have a couple uranium prospects but no holes drilled or anything, is there an imminent market release?


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Could it be expectation of JV ann for the tungsten project. Their iron ore / tassie projects and other look like they are in early stages of determining resources.

I do like to small market cap, does anyone with a good trading account know the status of top 20 holders


----------



## Sean K (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



KIWIKARLOS said:


> whats making these guys move so much?
> 
> I had a look into the company looks like they have a couple uranium prospects but no holes drilled or anything, is there an imminent market release?



Kiwi, have a listen to the presentation link that was posted here last week. The results from drilling at W Southdown and Tassie are imminent. Listen to what the MD says about what could happen if either of them get up. I quoted it above somewhere. It's quite a ramp!


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

hahahaha nice 

Unfortunatly these work comp don't like letting me watch video ill have a listen at home. Thanks for the heads up though I got  some spare cash to throw into a speccie from FNT and FWL profit. 

So just looking at short term prospects untill i can suss out the next big thing.


----------



## stoxclimber (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kiwi, they had a great  BRR presentation - you can find it here: http://brr.com.au/event/MAK/2097/24161


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



stoxclimber said:


> YT...there just were NO sellers! Depth had 4-5 sellers all day yesterday. First time I've ever seen it on a stock (with reasonable daily volume etc.) that hadn't run hard the other day.




Ahh I see, I saw it this morn and all there was no sellers, very strange, I remember there being at least 3-4 lines of 100k sells, where they pulled? Did the SP depth get purged for some reason (this usually happens when something goes Ex rights etc



nizar said:


> YT.
> Can you please get rid of that avatar.
> Its really annoying and totally changed my impression of you :
> LOL




He he he, apparantly your not alone, I like him, he looks so quiet and then bang he goes crazy!



KIWIKARLOS said:


> Could it be expectation of JV ann for the tungsten project. Their iron ore / tassie projects and other look like they are in early stages of determining resources.
> 
> I do like to small market cap, does anyone with a good trading account know the status of top 20 holders




The Tin Tungsten projects are not early stage, they are advanced IMO as they already have a JORC worked out on them, read through the thread, the info's all here


----------



## doogie_goes_off (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Be aware that the tin-tungsten project is all pre-JORC estimates (over estimated no doubt). Tin grades at pyramid (veins), Anchor (greisen style) are too low to be significant and the other two have been extensively worked so that there is probably not much easily accessible material. A huge amount of Rehab was done at Royal George so enviro cost would be very large if it started up again. 

Tas fluorite project is interesting if there is ever a market.

That's my knowledge FYI


----------



## stoxclimber (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Ahh I see, I saw it this morn and all there was no sellers, very strange, I remember there being at least 3-4 lines of 100k sells, where they pulled? Did the SP depth get purged for some reason (this usually happens when something goes Ex rights etc





They all got snapped up, there was about 400K traded @ 24c on Tuesday last week. Since then, it's just been meandering along edging slightly higher (one seller taken out at a time) until today! 

No ex rights or anything of the sort - just no holders wanted to sell at the prices.


----------



## Sean K (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

There will be results out this week. 

From AD:

We have been experiencing some lab difficulties on both the Iron and
Tin/tungsten fronts.  I suspect it is all to do with the boom and
contractors' systems and people buckling under the pressure.
Nonetheless, "next week" for at least one of the announcements re *drill
results will be this week!*


----------



## Sean K (20 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Was a nice break up today from what was a pennant I suppose. Run out of a little steam early after the stock was chased up. Rising off low volume? Just a lack of sellers? Lack of stock? Tightly held?  I suppose they're all linked. Target from the breakout there should have been 29 cents. Got to 28 I suppose. 

I'm not sure which of the drilling results is out this week. Didn't tell me. Hopefully we see some more interest tomorrow. You'd expect some consolidation, but with these results pending, I'm not sure.


----------



## skint (21 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well, the tin assays are out. Some may not have noticed them as the news was shortly after their announcement regarding Jutt holdings. Would have been better to announce them concurrently perhaps. Any thoughts on the assays anyone? Average looks like about 1-2% tin.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (21 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The problem here is the grades at the mining width. At a reasonable mining width the grades are average to say the least.


----------



## Sean K (21 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



skint said:


> Well, the tin assays are out. Some may not have noticed them as the news was shortly after their announcement regarding Jutt holdings. Would have been better to announce them concurrently perhaps. Any thoughts on the assays anyone? Average looks like about 1-2% tin.



Yeah, I'm not sure about the results. Never read tin assays before. Hardly anyone's drilling for it. The deposit is in sheeted reefs so that's why the thicknesses aren't huge, but the grade seems OK to me, when compared to g/tn gold. This drilling is along the historic mining which was obviously depleted during that time. They're going to now drill along strike so it's onviously worth pursuing. Pretty mute response on the market.


----------



## Col Lector (21 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I missed the tin announcement..a strange (non)strategy releasing both anns together....Tin grades seem promising though. The virgin strike extensions hold the key I'd say. 
Hanging on those Fe Assays...

BTW Kennas...might have to retract the SRL breakout alert....down 3.5% today


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



doogie_goes_off said:


> Be aware that the tin-tungsten project is all pre-JORC estimates (over estimated no doubt). Tin grades at pyramid (veins), Anchor (greisen style) are too low to be significant and the other two have been extensively worked so that there is probably not much easily accessible material. A huge amount of Rehab was done at Royal George so enviro cost would be very large if it started up again.
> 
> Tas fluorite project is interesting if there is ever a market.
> 
> That's my knowledge FYI






doogie_goes_off said:


> The problem here is the grades at the mining width. At a reasonable mining width the grades are average to say the least.





Some really good informative research there doogie, thank you for taking the time, this probably explains why the mkt isn't paying up for this Tin/Tungsten player, still given the premiums associated with recent Tin floats you'd think Mak deserved more because at least it definately has some Tin, whethers it'll be profitable to mine, well thats another story.


----------



## Col Lector (21 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

YT & Doogie....I think you both  here guilty of  "ramping-down" & should be hit with a  ticket forthwith......Where are you Kennas?


----------



## Sean K (22 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> YT & Doogie....I think you both  here guilty of  "ramping-down" & should be hit with a  ticket forthwith......Where are you Kennas?



A delayed reaction to yesterday's anns maybe? At 31 cents now, off the chart! LOL 

Perhaps the fe results are in and the MDs cousin is buying? I hope so. Pure speculation of course. 

Even stranger action on the options. Being chased pretty hard. 

I don't like these big rushes. Slow and steady wins the race. 

Sorry I can't ramp it any more than that Col. Cheers.


----------



## ta2693 (22 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> A delayed reaction to yesterday's anns maybe? At 31 cents now, off the chart! LOL
> 
> Perhaps the fe results are in and the MDs cousin is buying? I hope so. Pure speculation of course.
> 
> ...




delayed reaction?
why ppl have delayed reaction? what makes the delay ?
Does anyone here have Any Idea?


----------



## Sean K (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ta2693 said:


> delayed reaction?
> why ppl have delayed reaction? what makes the delay ?
> Does anyone here have Any Idea?



I meant delayed reaction in that the ann regarding the tin assays came out and the market didn't seem to notice. Then next day, stock starts running with the sellers completely gone. No idea why. They came out with 2 anns close together and the first one was just a part divestment of a project/JV so maybe no one looked at the subsequent ann. Maybe. Or, it took a while for the results to soak in. I'm still not sure if they were any good or not. Looks like significant gap up this am to 33.5, unless that order gets pulled late. Only a few sellers left again after that.  Fe results should be in this week, by MD's comments.


----------



## stoxclimber (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yep, up again strongly this morning (33.5c on the bid), and not a lot on offer either (50k at 35, 25k at 36 and not much else)


----------



## Col Lector (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bit disappointing really...cant understand what's holding these guys back...!?
Actually wouldnt be surprised if speeding ticket issued....although they can justify the SP rise as the combined effect of the tin assays ann & the pending Fe that they have flagged. All reasonably positive... 47% for the oppies ...so far today:dance::dance:


----------



## Sean K (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> Bit disappointing really...cant understand what's holding these guys back...!?



 Are you being sarcastic here Col? If so, very funny.  Up 32% and 76% for the oppies. Not a bad day. 

There's an audio stream out where AD discusses the latest anns. Not much that we don't know but good to listen to for holders. I've sent them an email asking for an update on when we might expect the fe results (this week?), and for some info on the uranium initiative plan. ie, when's drilling likely to start. That should provide further interest I anticipate. 

Was a significant gap up today. Hopefully it's a breakaway, and it won't get filled. Will need some consolidation here soon I'd expect (but hope not ).


----------



## stoxclimber (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

What I want to know is who's buying! Hardly any posts at ASF or even HC about MAK - who are all these guys buying shares?!


----------



## Col Lector (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Just a touch of sarcasm Kennas. But spoke too soon! Had expected a bit of an afternoon pullback but didnt eventuate. Those oppies at 0.07 not such a bad buy....
Nice chart!Outstanding even. Almost worth framing...but will hold off in the hope of more impressive ones once the Fe results roll in..:kiffer:


----------



## KT_NZ (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I see that the option expiry date is 31-Dec-2008.  What is the strike price? I'm guessing it is 25 cents?  thanks.


----------



## Col Lector (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gidday KT...Exercise price 30 cents Dec o8; MAK SP finished the day at 39 cents; MAKO finished at 15 cents.


----------



## KT_NZ (25 June 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks Col Lector.
I just read through the rest of the thread and saw the 30 cent strike price, which YT posted twice - feel silly for asking .

Anyway, I'm looking at getting into this very small cap company that appears to have some very good upside potential but not sure when to jump in ...


----------



## Dutchy3 (7 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Tipped off by other ... all the same what a beautiful sight! Yes rather illiquid however have another look in six months and cut the other wrist ....


----------



## moses (9 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Agreed. Although MAK is rather quiet while it consolidates, the buying pressure is increasing nicely as seen on the Neilson SMA chart, suggesting another flagpole is likely soon.


----------



## Sean K (10 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



moses said:


> Agreed. Although MAK is rather quiet while it consolidates, the buying pressure is increasing nicely as seen on the Neilson SMA chart, suggesting another flagpole is likely soon.



I'm still a skeptic of the SMA but I hope it's right here. Looks like it could go either way IMO, although MACD is looking pretty dodgy. Could all hinge on the WS fe assays due about 3 weeks ago.  I requested an update 2 weeks ago, but no reply.  I don't like having to put angry faces in this thread!  

So, I'm on the fence, but hopeful, which is not the way an 'investor' should be.


----------



## Sean K (10 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I'm still a skeptic of the SMA but I hope it's right here. Looks like it could go either way IMO, although MACD is looking pretty dodgy. Could all hinge on the WS fe assays due about 3 weeks ago.  I requested an update 2 weeks ago, but no reply.  I don't like having to put angry faces in this thread!
> 
> So, I'm on the fence, but hopeful, which is not the way an 'investor' should be.



I'm not on the fence if it keeps below 30 cents for the day. Bit bearish I'm afraid. Could find its way to support around 24-25 cents if a few keen buyers come in, which there doesn't seem to be at the moment. Perhaps they're getting hurt for the late fe results. Disappointing. In my last correspondance with the company I asked about their uranium exploration 'plan'. It's fine to buy some hot land, but you have to lift a spade eventually. Just when? I asked. No answer.....


----------



## skint (10 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I'm not on the fence if it keeps below 30 cents for the day. Bit bearish I'm afraid. Could find its way to support around 24-25 cents if a few keen buyers come in, which there doesn't seem to be at the moment. Perhaps they're getting hurt for the late fe results. Disappointing. In my last correspondance with the company I asked about their uranium exploration 'plan'. It's fine to buy some hot land, but you have to lift a spade eventually. Just when? I asked. No answer.....




Hi Kennas, I really get peeved when there is no update given when results are delayed. The last time MAK went  for  a run it rocketed from .22 to .39. Anything positive in the FE results is a good chance to have a similar effect IMHO, given the current sentiment in iron ore, MAK's tiny market cap and what is still a relatively thin sell side. I agree that it may well be drifting due to the delayed news. Nonetheless, I think I'll hang in there for the FE results to come out EVENTUALLY. Let you know if I can extract any info from the company. Maybe ASF holders of MAK should "blanket bomb" AD with emails and phonecalls in the hope of finding out SOMETHING regarding the overdue results and the Uranium 'plan' as you put it. Maybe the 300lb per tonne will turn out to be true (that's a joke, not a ramp).


----------



## skint (11 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



skint said:


> Hi Kennas, I really get peeved when there is no update given when results are delayed. The last time MAK went  for  a run it rocketed from .22 to .39. Anything positive in the FE results is a good chance to have a similar effect IMHO, given the current sentiment in iron ore, MAK's tiny market cap and what is still a relatively thin sell side. I agree that it may well be drifting due to the delayed news. Nonetheless, I think I'll hang in there for the FE results to come out EVENTUALLY. Let you know if I can extract any info from the company. Maybe ASF holders of MAK should "blanket bomb" AD with emails and phonecalls in the hope of finding out SOMETHING regarding the overdue results and the Uranium 'plan' as you put it. Maybe the 300lb per tonne will turn out to be true (that's a joke, not a ramp).




Oh well, I tried to get through to the company yesterday but to no avail. I decided to bail out at an average of 26.5 for a small profit. Just isn't holding up for mine. Still like the prospects of his one but I think I'll wait until there's stronger support and hopefully get back in at a lower price or similar price if buyers return.


----------



## Sean K (11 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



skint said:


> Oh well, I tried to get through to the company yesterday but to no avail. I decided to bail out at an average of 26.5 for a small profit. Just isn't holding up for mine. Still like the prospects of his one but I think I'll wait until there's stronger support and hopefully get back in at a lower price or similar price if buyers return.



Might be a good move skint. Any profit's a good profit I say! I'm holding mostly options I have held for some time and I am waiting for the damn fe assays to be released to my happiness, or pain. I've just thought that if I wasn't on when they came out I'd be missing out. Missing out on pain maybe..... I'll be posting charts up as we go to see if any likely TA scenarios will play out.


----------



## moses (12 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I've sold out too, while the price is up today but for a loss unfortunately, as the current SMA chart isn't looking nearly as bullish as it was previously. Oh well...


----------



## tibby (13 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Mexican standoff today......75000 sell order came in just after opening and there has been a little taken from it but no action in the last few hours, will all change of course when the FE results come in!! But until then.....


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Could find its way to support around 24-25 cents.



Found support, slight increase in volume at potential bottom, fe results imminent , which are hopefully kind to holders. 



> "if one of these projects gets up, then the stock should go into the stratosphere" Andrew Drummond, MD, not ramping on Boardroom Radio.


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Found support, slight increase in volume at potential bottom, fe results imminent , which are hopefully kind to holders.



Ann out on fe, , best intersection from the 3 holes 12m @ 51% magnetite, confirming this to be the extension of GRR's Southdown deposit, 458mt at 40 ish %. MAK have a longer strike length identified.

How do others read the ann? Intersections look minimal. 

Not going back up till close EOD above 30 IMO.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Ann out on fe, , best intersection from the 3 holes 12m @ 51% magnetite, confirming this to be the extension of GRR's Southdown deposit, 458mt at 40 ish %. MAK have a longer strike length identified.
> 
> How do others read the ann? Intersections look minimal.
> 
> Not going back up till close EOD above 30 IMO.




To be honest Kennarico, 

I didn't like the announcement at all and here's why

WSD01 *149-161m*, 12m @ 40.65% magnetite
WSD02 *121-127m*, 6m @ 36.00% magnetite

Not only are the intersections minimal, they are 120m-150m below surface!

People complained about YML's 50m of top soil and that was haematite,

This is magnetite, I can't believe it so deep, I mean 150m is almost underground mine stuff,

I'm disappointed


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> To be honest Kennarico,
> 
> I didn't like the announcement at all and here's why
> 
> ...



YT, these were drilling results were aimed at depth. Follow up drilling will be done to test closer to surface, so I'm still OTF (On The Fence - need to coin this to save future typing because I seem to be there A LOT!)


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Oh I see Kennarico,

But if your drilling to 200m dee, wouldn't you get the assays for the first 100m's?

I guess I'm annoyed because we wait 12 weeks for some assays and then they're 120m-150m undercover,

And whats going on with the Tin? C'mon MAK move it!


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Oh I see Kennarico,
> 
> But if your drilling to 200m dee, wouldn't you get the assays for the first 100m's?
> 
> ...



Drill holes are generally on an angle YT!  The ann doesn't say what, but I guess 60 degrees ish.... Just a pluck. By the maps they provide definately not 90. So, future drilling maybe directly down (90 degrees) or at a greater angle in the direction perpendicular of the ore body to capture it at shallower depth. (30 degrees maybe ) I'm no drilling expert!! Someone set me straight please!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Drill holes are generally on an angle YT!  The ann doesn't say what, but I guess 60 degrees ish.... Just a pluck. By the maps they provide definately not 90. So, future drilling maybe directly down (90 degrees) or at a greater angle in the direction perpendicular of the ore body to capture it at shallower depth. (30 degrees maybe ) I'm no drilling expert!! Someone set me straight please!




So you reckon they came from outside the orebody, on say a 60 degree angle and only uintersected it at 120m's? Makes sense I guess,

Still if it were me I'd go straight down, 90 degrees as you said, because its magnetite you need it close to surface to make it work 50m's depth max,

Might give the company a call to try and clarify,

If they firm something up, I'd expect it to either be sold or JV'd with GRR, so I'm hoping they firm something big


----------



## kevinecom (16 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK share price goes up by 14.815%. 

I'm confident with MAK, as it is neighbour to Grange resources.


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> So you reckon they came from outside the orebody, on say a 60 degree angle and only uintersected it at 120m's? Makes sense I guess,



I've gone back through Granges early anns on Southdown and some of their early drill holes didn't hit mineralisation until 150m. If it is an extension of the same deposit, then the mineralisation looks to start under 20-50m of cover and extends to 300m depth. Hopefully MAK's is the same. 

These slides are taken from an investor presentation on 10 Feb 05. Note the lower holes and their intercept depth.


----------



## Kevi (17 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

very interesting Kennas..

I guess this from the announcement confirms that they will now target mineralisation closer to the surface.

_The drill holes were sited to ensure testing of magnetic anomalies at a depth well below weathering and cover sequences.
The next phase of exploration will seek areas of magnetite mineralization which are likely to be:
• closer to surface
• replicated by folding_


----------



## Gordon (17 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

wow either very small market cap or very few shareholders that trade (or both) $73 000 is all it would take to buy every share for sale at the moment.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey Kennarico,

Thanks for the info, makes complete sense to me now, its a very easy way of understanding the deposit extension, MAK maybe onto something here!


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Kennarico,
> 
> Thanks for the info, makes complete sense to me now, its a very easy way of understanding the deposit extension, MAK maybe onto something here!



Buenas, Amigo YT!

Boardroom radio chat with AD is out pretty much confirming what we've discussed here. He likes getting on Boardroom radio - must have a connnection there or something.  

They've had a bad run with the lab on the assays by the sound. They need to change providers I reckon. Switch to someone not called 'Marx Brothers Assays in 24 hours or it's Free!" 

Bit of extra volume today holding it up which is nice. Might now be on the radar!


----------



## kevinecom (17 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK is up another 19%, not many sellers too. 

YT, do you have any upcoming research stock, u did extremely well with cul, yml , fwl and rmi. Anything u touch turning to gold


----------



## Sean K (19 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I stole this off the MLX thread (thanks Mick) in relation to tin, which is one of MAK's potential company makers:

*DJ BASE METALS: LME Tin Jumps On Technical Breakout *
Wed, Jul 18 2007, 17:25 GMT
http://www.osterdowjones.com/ 

London Metal Exchange tin blitzed the rest of the complexWednesday as funds leaped at a technical play that market participants seedriving it higher. 

LME tin jumped almost 5% Wednesday, to end just shy of $15,000/ton, short ofits $15,100/ton April high. 

The metal has been traded around $14,000/ton since mid-May, traders said,which added fuel to the breakout, as buy stops were triggered at key technicallevels all the way up. 

Already, analysts have warned of a "new nickel or lead" in the making, withtechnical indicators for the metal pointing as high as $16,000/ton, said UBSanalyst Robin Bhar. 

Like the lead and nickel markets, the tin market is relatively small, withsupply side stresses, and dominated by one or two "very, very large funds,"analysts said. 

In the coming days, LME tin is set to challenge$15,100/ton hit in April when Indonesian supply problems kicked in, market players said. 

Indonesian authorities cracked down on dozens of small smelters last October,forcing them to close up shop due to environmental and tax code breaches,although some larger smelters have gradually come back on line. 

Mostly due to these problems, reported tin production from January to May was down 2,900 tons on the year, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.


----------



## Sean K (24 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Tassie U surface assays look pretty interesting, the MD calling the deposit to be potentially economical, before they've even drilled. 

Average assays 14lb/tn sounds pretty good?

Any thoughts?

Not sure of Tassies stand on U mining still....


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (24 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Tassie U surface assays look pretty interesting, the MD calling the deposit to be potentially economical, before they've even drilled.
> 
> Average assays 14lb/tn sounds pretty good?
> 
> ...




Hey Kenna,

Tassie U does look interesting, but like you I have no idea what Tassie stance on U is,

Opies doing well I see


----------



## deftfear (24 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Kenna,
> 
> Tassie U does look interesting, but like you I have no idea what Tassie stance on U is,
> 
> Opies doing well I see




As far as I know tassie doesn't yet have a stance on uranium as MAK's is the first deposit that has been in the news, and I "think" i have read previously that tassie's stance on uranium was irrelevant as there is none here. Can't remember the source or anything, just something that stuck in my head.

I don't know what the chances would be of getting a mine going thanks to being the green state. Anything that isn't green causes a lot of controversy here and the greens have more power here than anywhere else in Australia.


----------



## Sean K (25 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



deftfear said:


> I don't know what the chances would be of getting a mine going thanks to being the green state. Anything that isn't green causes a lot of controversy here and the greens have more power here than anywhere else in Australia.



Yes, Tassie is a 'green' state but it hasn't stopped the NW corner of the state slowly being turned into one huge mine. There's numerous operators and new mines being developed as we speak. The question of whether U is a 'green' fuel, or a world destroyer is the question perhaps.


----------



## stayhere (26 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

uranium mine is ok in TAS. is not baned, but like you said they don't have any uranium deposit before, so not much discusion.


----------



## Sean K (28 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Surprising strength in this one yesterday stopping at what is becomming strong resistance at 40 cents. Little bit of support growing at 35, hopefully forming a base for further growth, but with this market volatility, who knows. 

I think the key drivers for the next quarter will be the appraisal of the drill results in Tassie and the desk top study. Also:

The Stage 2 assays at W Southdown should be due in the comming weeks and the announcement of drilling at TUU when/if they get a rig there. I doubt that asssay results will get back from the Stage 2 drilling at Southdown, or TUU though. 

Also, Mines and Resources Tassie is currently flying a radiometric and geophysical survey over NE Tassie and MAK have commissioned infil flight lines over their U projects to identify drill targest. The release of that data should provide some interest. Lets hope they're hot!! 

Exploration lisences for the WA and NT U projects should come in this quarter too.

Tungsten asays are due very soon from Aberfoyle too. If they are satisfactory then the JV with WB should go ahead. This could be a significant event for MAK, one way or the other. Both companies are assessing the potential to start reprocessing operations of the tailings at Story's Creek to start generating some cash flow. 

Looks like they're spending about $500K a quarter and have $2m left in the kitty, so they'll need to go to the market later this year probably. Hopefully a rights issue at a little discount.  But doubt it.


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK in the news from the WA U conference. This article is from Mineweb. Good plug for the U play, which is just another string to the bow for me. 

I must add, while I have been posting a lot on this, it is still highly speculative, and has had a very good run since breaking up from the teens. Market cap has been boosted considerably and is not the micro it was a couple of months ago. DYOR, blah, blah...



> *Australia's Apple Isle gets a taste for uranium*
> 
> When Australia was enmeshed in the 1950s Cold War and strategic metals such as uranium were sought, there was one shortlived quest in Tasmania but Minemakers Ltd now is intent on taking forward the first modern uranium search on the Apple Isle.
> 
> ...


----------



## Col Lector (3 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK ann out late Thursday....release of Fe assays for Southdown. 
Southdown iron project potential must be being watched by GRR...and potential partners.


----------



## Sean K (3 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> MAK ann out late Thursday....release of Fe assays for Southdown.
> Southdown iron project potential must be being watched by GRR...and potential partners.



You would have to consider that if they define a resource here of any decent tonnage, that GRR/Sojitz will farm in and add W Southdown to the Southdown project. All the infrastructure will be well on the way by the time a JORC is finalised and they just plug it in. As long as the deposit is close to surface it looks pretty positive.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

RIO has just taken 19% of Grange in order to consolidate the Southdown Project. Just a matter of time perhaps that some arrangement is made with MAK on West Southdown. I think if they confirm the deposit is within a reasonable distance from the surface, then this project might be looked at by RIO/GRR/Sojitz. Still spec, of course.


----------



## Col Lector (14 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gidday Kennas....surprised to see no activity on MAK following this morning ann of GRR/RIO tieup... IMO the tenement consolidation has to be viewed as a positive for MAK. It ensures that major development will proceed at Southdown. Economics ensure that both GRR & RIO will be watching MAK's future drilling closely.Are further Fe assays due soon?? That may be the catalyst needed for MAK to regain its recent highs.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Col Lector said:


> Are further Fe assays due soon?? That may be the catalyst needed for MAK to regain its recent highs.



No, they're flying an EM survey later in the year to determine drilling sites. They're 'talking to contractors', and anticipate flying in Oct. Bit of a wait...

Interest is there 'from several Asia groups, with renewed interest now', according to AD. Read: the Japanese, surely. MAK have no intention to run this by themselves, so they're probably knocking on GGRs door.


----------



## Col Lector (14 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I would imagine that GRR/RIO probably prefer that they get a first look at what MAK has at Southdown, rather than see a third party...Japanes/Chinese/?....become involved. This would tend to strengthen MAK's bargaining position, and may work to accelerate any negotiation on a farmin.


----------



## Sean K (30 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Renounceable rights issue fully underwritten by Pattersons. 26 cents a share for every 5 held with a free option attached. I'm not holding the ordinary shares any more, just options, so not sure where to go here. There's no record date mentioned...


----------



## Kevi (30 August 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kennas.. The shares are @ 25c not 26c.. 

The shareprice seems to be holding its ground around this level, and I suspect it will continue to do some until more details are provided in the prospectus.

Im also holding options only.. Im not overally impressed that the free options are MAKO and not another listing with a different strike price and exercise date..

Pattersons recently pulled out of MXR cap raising a week or two ago as the share price fell below the offer price... Not good!

7c options now on offer.. I dont know what we should expect from here.


----------



## Kevi (24 September 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

options up 50% here! Heads are up 17%

Looking good since the rights finished trading on Friday..  Its also interesting to note the volume and whether it has anything to do with GBG and SDL's recent announcement?


----------



## Sean K (24 September 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Kevi said:


> options up 50% here! Heads are up 17%
> 
> Looking good since the rights finished trading on Friday..  Its also interesting to note the volume and whether it has anything to do with GBG and SDL's recent announcement?



What's the link to SDL and GBG?

The sp appreciation is only due to Tassie U ann and people taking more risk.


----------



## Sean K (11 October 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK diving to a decision point for Mr Market. Will she break down, or break up out of this dodgy descending triangle. 

I think they need to progress report on W Southdown survey, or the MOU with Wolfxxx / Tassie Tin progress for a bounce...


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

All's quiet on the MAK front. Looks like 22 could be a bottom, but who knows? Bit of a volume spike yesty after it broke out of the gates. I'm just holding options in this at the moment but will be more interested when they come around to further drilling at W Southdown, or there's more clarrity on Tassie Tin. Potential break from downward trend around green circle perhaps.


----------



## ta2693 (7 November 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

does anyone know who is Paul Winston Askins.
He becomes a substantial shareholder of Mak from 6th Nov.


----------



## Go Nuke (8 November 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ta2693 said:


> does anyone know who is Paul Winston Askins.
> He becomes a substantial shareholder of Mak from 6th Nov.




All I could find is that he is also the 4th largest shareholder of Aura Energy *AEE* holding 900000 units.


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK has stabilised somewhat above 22 cents but just drifting a bit. I think the next ann will be Tassie U assays, and then the radiometrics from West Southdown. 

I watched the last presentation from AD this morning and it looks like the Rock Phosphate project near TC is getting some interest from Asia. They've got a billion tons of the stuff and I think are relying on the price to remain high for it to be economical, which looks likely. Capex might be high as they'll need a rail line to TC. One project to watch.

Link to the presentation here.


----------



## SevenFX (27 November 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey Kennas.

Do you only use bigcharts as your charting tools or do you have other charting software on your pc  and what do you use.???

Reason I ask, is that only seen bigcharts from you...???

SevenFX


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



SevenFX said:


> Hey Kennas.
> 
> Do you only use bigcharts as your charting tools or do you have other charting software on your pc  and what do you use.???
> 
> ...



I've just got ETrade and IG charting packages as part of the accounts. I'm not sure why I continue to use Bigcharts. Habit.


----------



## SevenFX (27 November 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I've just got ETrade and IG charting packages as part of the accounts. I'm not sure why I continue to use Bigcharts. Habit.





This is reasonably decent and free without 20min delays with your etrade account, unless you want to pay for unlimited data and few extra features.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8444&highlight=quotetracker
http://www.quotetracker.com/

Back to thread.
Cheers
SevenFX


----------



## Sean K (9 December 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Grange has the eyes and ears now of RIO, the Chinese and The Middle East.



> *Grange Resources in Southdown talks with Middle Eastern *
> Stephen Bell, Dow Jones Newswires | December 08, 2007
> 
> GRANGE Resources is in talks with a potential Middle Eastern investor as the West Australian iron ore hopeful firms up plans for its $US1.37 billion ($1.56 billion) Southdown venture.
> ...



MAK's West Southdown deposit will eventually be added to the project, at a nice price. 

MAK current mc around $20m when Grange is $250m or something, with potentially the same tonnage is potentially an opportunity....

(added more options 2 weeks ago on the crappy U grades from Tassie)

Then add the Tassie Tin/Tungsten and the TC Phosphate and you have some potential blue sky from this minnow....


----------



## Sean K (13 December 2007)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hadn't really considered this one to be one of the big three?

Interesting. Sounds prospective...

Sounds like they may have someone interested in a farm in without a JORC...



> *MOINA FLUORSPAR-TUNGSTEN-TIN BASE METALS PROJECT UPDATE*
> 13 December 2007
> 
> Increased international interest in Minemakers’ Moina project in northern Tasmania due to significant fluorspar price rises caused by Chinese mining export cut-backs.
> ...


----------



## Sean K (7 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Always interesting to see which companies climb on a red day. Really low volume, but to be up 9 ish % today is of interest. No idea what it could be, possibly West Southdown magnetics?? 

(holding a few options)


----------



## Sean K (8 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Always interesting to see which companies climb on a red day. Really low volume, but to be up 9 ish % today is of interest. No idea what it could be, possibly West Southdown magnetics??
> 
> (holding a few options)



Ended up 22% yesterday on increased volume. They should probably get a please explain for that. Will be interesting to see what the news is, unless the past 2 days were just anomolies. 

I'm still holding for the likely farm-in/JV from Grange at West Southdown, Tassie Tin potential and the Rock Phosphate.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (8 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Ended up 22% yesterday on increased volume. They should probably get a please explain for that. Will be interesting to see what the news is, unless the past 2 days were just anomolies.
> 
> I'm still holding for the likely farm-in/JV from Grange at West Southdown, Tassie Tin potential and the Rock Phosphate.




Hi Kennas, this one has been on my watchlist! Would have been nice to get in around the 20c mark, however, even after the current gains over the last couple of days, the market cap is still less than $12 million from my information. 
I'm still on the sidelines but I would still consider MAK to be undervalued IMO, what do others think?


----------



## Sean K (9 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Ended up 22% yesterday on increased volume. They should probably get a please explain for that. Will be interesting to see what the news is, unless the past 2 days were just anomolies.
> 
> I'm still holding for the likely farm-in/JV from Grange at West Southdown, Tassie Tin potential and the *Rock Phosphate*.



Perhaps this is the reason for the resent jump. Interesting that this was not market sensitive. Perhaps it's no big deal? 



> *ASX AND PRESS RELEASE*
> 
> *ROCK PHOSPHATE PRICE ROCKETS TO US$200/TONNE FEASIBILITY PLANNING INITIATED ON THE WONARAH PROJECT, NORTHERN TERRITORY*
> 
> ...




What's 14% of 2b x $200?

Sounds like a lot of IGV to me.


----------



## Sean K (9 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> What's 14% of 2b x $200?
> 
> Sounds like a lot of IGV to me.



I must be adding this up wrong.

2Bt x 14% = 280Mt
x $200/t = $56b

Give them 10% IGV for mc = $5.6b 

Someone who passed maths please correct me. Thanks. 

Obviously, you must not value a company on it's current IGV like this.


----------



## Sean K (9 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I think there's some taxi drivers chasing this.

Heads up 50%, Oppies 114%.

I reckon it'll come off quite a bit when the HC pump and dumbers take their bit. Caution warranted I think.

Having said that, $56b IGV! That is ONLY if the price of Phos stays at $200 too remember! Not sure where the markets going from here....


----------



## Sean K (9 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Very surprised to see this hold up so well. A strong finish will provide an interesting start tomorrow. 

BRR interview here for anyone interested. Might just be me by the looks...

http://www.brr.com.au/event/39646

Spiking up towards all time highs and hopefully a re-rating. Looks like there was something in those two good days when it rose off the bottom. 

This is their No 3 project too IMO.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (9 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I am still holding on

Has anyone had the time to do the Figures yet?
Or is it that Fundamental Analysis has lost its edge again

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Sean K (10 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Captain_Chaza said:


> I am still holding on
> 
> Has anyone had the time to do the Figures yet?
> Or is it that Fundamental Analysis has lost its edge again
> ...



Capt, you could pump any fundamentals you like into a model all based on assumptions and you could get any valuation you like from 40 cents to $27 (as I saw on HC, LOL )

After investing for 15 years this is the first triple figure gain (oppies up 177%)I've had in a day, and I'm hoping this isn't just a pump and dump short term and the rerating has legs.

They won't be doing any further field work at TC for a couple of months, so I assume the excitement will drop away a bit.

Unless they can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get the (positive) EM survey results on WS out in the next week or so...

Yours Aye,
kennas


----------



## JTLP (11 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

So what does the future hold for MAK? Languishing back to the shadows of its former self around the 20 cent mark? Or consolidation then onward and upwards?

Personally, I can see MAK getting pretty low, around the 40 cent mark. This is obviously as a result of the traders. They will need to start pumping out announcements about other prospects and what they plan to do with the phospate to keep investors serious about MAK. They have potential, but they need to fully exploit it and keep the market informed.

How quickly do people think MAK can get the goods out of the ground? Fast enough to help impact on the SP?

Also, will insto's be buying in? T/O possibly?


----------



## Sean K (12 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



JTLP said:


> So what does the future hold for MAK? Languishing back to the shadows of its former self around the 20 cent mark? Or consolidation then onward and upwards?
> 
> Personally, I can see MAK getting pretty low, around the 40 cent mark. This is obviously as a result of the traders. They will need to start pumping out announcements about other prospects and what they plan to do with the phospate to keep investors serious about MAK. They have potential, but they need to fully exploit it and keep the market informed.
> 
> ...



Yes, depends on a few things doesn ´t it. Much of it on the price of the commods it ´s trying to develop. You are right about news, more needs to get out or it may languish. If Rock Phos starts heading south, then this might be dramatically sold off. If it keeps going up then MAK could be even more significantly rerated. Next should be the EM survey from WS. With the previous results in, you ´d expect some pretty good targets. Need to find some drill rigs then. Takeover, I don ´t think so, but large farm in-JV will be needed to take these things to production. MAK may have to give up quite a bit of the projects to get them on board. Hopefully those Asia interests come to fruition.


----------



## ALFguy (14 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Interesting article on BRW.

http://www.brw.com.au/viewer.aspx?ATL://1200029052111&magsection=Mining+%26+Energy&portal=_Page&title=Packed+with+potential


----------



## Sean K (15 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

As far as further boosts to MAK, this one is sure to provide some interest.



> *ASX ANNOUNCEMENT*
> 
> *MOINA FLUORSPAR-TUNGSTEN-TIN BASE METALS PROJECT UPDATE*
> 
> ...




It's worth reading the rest of the ann for the discussion on Flourospar.

Apologies that this is outdated but I don't think it was raised in the thread previously. I have not included this in MAK's top 3 projects because I don't know much about flourospar and just glanced over it. As I almost did with the Rock Phos....

So, now we may have WS EM survey results come in, Tin JV update, JORC and possible ann of JV/Farm In at Moina, and in a couple of months drilling at TC. Lots of news to come. 

Let's hope the traders have now left MAK and the MC can find it's feet....


----------



## Taurisk (15 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Kennas

Just logged onto my portfolio and was amazed at the jump of MAK - now on .56

re fluorspar:

Fluorspar is used directly or indirectly to manufacture products such as aluminum, gasoline, insulating foams, refrigerants, steel, and uranium fuel.  All domestic sources of fluorspar are derived from sales of material from the National Defense Stockpile and from a small amount of synthetic fluorspar produced from industrial waste streams.  Byproduct fluorosilicic acid production from some phosphoric acid producers supplements fluorspar as a domestic source of fluorine, but is not included in fluorspar production or consumption calculations. 

Pretty important stuff - the above is from an U.S. site.

Cheers

Taurisk


----------



## grace (15 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> As far as further boosts to MAK, this one is sure to provide some interest.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




One person who might be able to shed some light on the industry is "ithatheekrit" after doing lots of research about all of this in relation to Incitec Pivot.  Just a thought.


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks Taurisk and Grace.

Was an excellent finish for MAK yesterday. I was surprised to see it on the back of no ann and after the early sessions where further profit taking, distribution, looked to be taking place. 

In regard to the Flourite Project, I note they are targetting a 50Mt resource of various minerals (primarily flourite) with a current IGV of about $3b. I think when they confirm the details with the PFS in the coming weeks we may see even more interest in MAK. There will be an update on this project in the Qtly to be released next week.

As I have said before, I think the market has only really been interested in WS (potential 450Mt Magnetite, IGV??), the Tassie Tin Projects, and TC Rock Phos, which has been an upside surprise to the general market. I don't think there's much in the Tassie U potential, and U is in the dog house right now, but the NT and WA radiometrics looked good. 

Chart wise, looks like the sloppy pole and pennant may be confirmed which gives, on the surface of it, an unrealistic price target to me. It may be jumping too fast for my liking. Slow and steady wins the race...

Perhaps AD was right and 2008 is the year for a Big MAK...


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Damn DOW might put a halt to this run. 

Another ann this morning with notice that Tungstan assays at Tassie Tin may be underestimated by as much as 30%. Should make the potential JV partner more confident in the project.



> ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
> 
> RE-ASSAYING IMPROVES TUNGSTEN OUTLOOK IN TASMANIA
> 
> ...


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Chart wise, looks like the sloppy pole and pennant may be confirmed which gives, on the surface of it, an unrealistic price target to me. It may be jumping too fast for my liking. Slow and steady wins the race...



Unfortunately there's some rediculous pump and dumping going on at HC which is causing some severe volatility. Part of the game I suppose, but a note to new investors and traders of what can happen on greed and fear. Times like these I wish I didn't watch the screen all day....I'm an emotional beast too...


----------



## Wilson! (17 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi kennas

I bought in today, on the oppies
I think the phosphate will be a massive company maker. In a few years, could well be a few bucks on that alone, plus the other projects

But yes it is manipulated and ramped up and down on HC, but who cares, if it has the goods, doesnt matter what we say on the boards.


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Chart wise, looks like the sloppy pole and pennant may be confirmed which gives, on the surface of it, an unrealistic price target to me. It may be jumping too fast for my liking. Slow and steady wins the race...



Quarterly will be out this week as I understand it with an update on the Flourite (poly) project in Tassie. The company is targetting 50Mt at whatever grades....  with IGV of $3b. (from the company website)

Just on this, you could give MAK a MC of 10% IGV for this which is $300m. 

Add that to the $56b IGV for Rock Phos.

Then add potentialy 500Mt magnetite at WS....

The pole and pennant formation is still sort of in play, but as I said the target looked unreasonable.

Now another little consolidation period has eventuated and another pennant formed. Target is generally considered to be the length of the pole from breakout.

(thank you MAK, you are saving by @rse)


----------



## grace (21 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I read some news that Andrew Drummond is out doing the rounds of Sydney brokers, and hosting a lunch for finance journos at Darling Harbour tomorrow.  I don't hold (swearing and cursing about that too).


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Quarterly will be out this week as I understand it with an update on the Flourite (poly) project in Tassie. The company is targetting 50Mt at whatever grades....  with IGV of $3b. (from the company website)



Qtly out with what looks to be all posative stuff, but no great update on Moina.



> HIGHLIGHTS
> WONARAH PHOSPHATE PROJECT
> The rocketing price of rock phosphate now provides potential for evelopment of a major and profitable mine. Work programmes leading to feasibility have been initiated.
> * MOINA FLUORSPAR AND POLYMETALLICS PROJECT
> ...






> PLANNED WORK PROGRAMMES FOR THE MARCH QUARTER
> Minemakers currently plans to complete the following tasks in the March Quarter.
> WONARAH
> • Initiation of studies leading to feasibility.
> ...




And on Moina:



> MOINA FLUORSPAR, MAGNETITE, TUNGSTEN, TIN AND BASE METALS
> DEPOSIT, TASMANIA
> OPTION TO ACQUIRE AN INITIAL 80% EQUITY.
> On 13 December 2007, Minemakers announced that the price of fluorspar delivered
> ...




Seems my information about a resource update at Moina was off... 


Stock up 20-30% though so all's going great for MAK holders. I would like to see some more steady consolidation and rises (heart's not taking this market well) but I suppose that's what you get with specs.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This is almost running too far. Sure it's been re-rated on the Rock Phos project, but this is getting silly. Risky to jump in right now IMO and there just needs to be some more natural consolidation. Even though, on the surface of it, it's key projects have such potential value to the company mean it's MC should naturally be realigned with whatever value the market thinks it should have. With $60b IGV in 2 projects, and 2 other major ones unrealised yet, it's up for argument and discussion of what this means to the company. But geesh, this chart is scary!


----------



## zengin (25 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi guys

there is some sort of financials out on MAK today but because I cant read financials can some one explain what is all mean.

Thanks

( hope this is okey JOE)


----------



## Wilson! (25 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

There was a quarterly out, plus one non exec director sold 700,000 shares on market recently, but still holds 2m shares

A bit of spec on why he sold, the usual doom and gloom spec but who cares, they are entitled to make money also, director fees arent huge, and he still holds 2m

No other directors sold and they did their roadshow this week 
Imo all good, but may drop off a bit today but then again, who knows

they still have a few bucks sp value imo


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> they still have a few bucks sp value imo



Wilson, you must post up some analysis to make any call like this. I haven't seen any sp valuation in the thread giving an FA value.....


----------



## Wilson! (25 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi kennas

This was posted by vayama on TS

Minemakers Limited
EARLY FINANCIAL PARAMETERS:
1. FROM 2/07 INDEPENDENT STUDY
OPEX
CAPEX AU$18M

2. ASSUME
OPEX RISE AU$100/t
CAPEX ALSO TO INCLUDE BFS AND ESCALATION AU$30-40M

3. CURRENT MOROCCO SALES
200 US$/t FOB AU$230/t

4. COMPARED TO MOROCCO AND AU$20-30/t
MIDDLE EAST, AUSTRALIA HAS A FREIGHT COST ADVANTAGE

5. POTENTIAL AND COMPETITIVE MARGIN AU$100-150/t

6. INITIAL TARGET 2-3 Mtpa
(2% of WORLD OUTPUT)


Highest case scenario is $150 margin on 3M tonnes production = $2.50 EPS or $25 share value.


----------



## Wilson! (25 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Also worthy of reading, especially so in fact is this article published on Monday

Imo whilst anything is a risk, this has producer and multiples higher written all over it...

--------------

Note this paragraph,

"The brokers have yet to work out what Minemakers might be worth, but some back of the envelope calculations suggest it should be valued in dollars rather than cents".


Minemakers (MAK) 56c

Tim Blue | January 23, 2008

CRITERION went back to his textbook yesterday and looked up the bit that said D for diversification. It didn't do much good, but it did help him find M for Minemakers, a would-be miner that is about as diversified as you can get.

Not only that, its share price has been a bolter in the past week and may be one to hold up over time.

Its big thing is rock phosphate, the stuff that becomes fertiliser on the garden and on food crops. As chief executive Andrew Drummond said yesterday, markets may crash but we've still got to eat and produce crops.

It may have escaped your notice but there's a new cartel in the world for rock phosphate. Treat it with various acids and it becomes superphosphate, which agricultural producers must have, so much so that the price has quadrupled in a year.

Minemakers has a feasibility study under way on its Wonorah deposit near Tennant Creek, which holds the country's largest undeveloped phosphate resource. It has been drilled previously by Rio (up to 2002 when phosphate was 20 per cent of today's price). If all proves well the rock could be trucked to the central Australian railway line and shipped out through Darwin to Chinese customers.

Besides the in-flavour phosphate asset, Minemakers also owns Australia's largest fluorspar deposit (formerly Comalco-owned) in Tasmania, and recently began uranium exploration in Tasmania, which may be Australia's second-friendliest uranium state after South Australia.

Minemakers has drilled several old uranium prospects in the northeast of the island state. Before it could do so, it had to overcome opposition from the Tasmanian Greens Party, which landed a no-exploration-or-mining bill in Parliament.

The bill it didn't get up, as the government and opposition teamed up to make sure Tassie did not miss out on the uranium exploration boom.

Minemakers also has the old Rossarden tin and tungsten deposits in Tasmania's northeast among its key properties. Drummond knows a good uranium prospect when he sees one, having worked in the 1970s and 1980s with the likes of Uranerz, and he sees Rossarden for its uranium potential rather than its historic tin and tungsten deposits.

The brokers have yet to work out what Minemakers might be worth, but some back of the envelope calculations suggest it should be valued in dollars rather than cents.

Criterion ranks it a speculative buy.


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> Hi kennas
> 
> This was posted by vayama on TS
> 
> ...



Cheers Wilson, I've seen these about and I can't argue with the valuations I've seen come out, but this one is, as you say, is best case. Based on minerals staying higher for some time of course, which could be likely.


----------



## Wilson! (25 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

No worries kennas

Also found out today the directors are travelling from the broker roadshows today, to go straight across to Europe

Whilst speculation flew around as to why, it was posted elsewhere that the Aberfoyle Tin/Tungsten is in JV with an Austrian Tungsten company - so that could of course be the reason

Apparently their tungsten project is more advanced than anything, so this could lead to some even better news short term 

Of course, until we know for sure, it remains speculative, but seems extremely encouraging

Cheers,
Wilson


----------



## Sean K (30 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> Also found out today the directors are travelling from the broker roadshows today, to go straight across to Europe
> 
> Whilst speculation flew around as to why, it was posted elsewhere that the Aberfoyle Tin/Tungsten is in JV with an Austrian Tungsten company - so that could of course be the reason



The arrangement is only an MOU with Wolfram Bergbau, which can be expanded to a JV if they deem the project a goer. With the recent tungstan assays coming up 30% higher garde than first reported this could be the case. This would be the first significant relationship for MAK to get fully tied up in and will see them advance from explorer to developer. Speculation, but an announcement along these lines would be welcome.

Other than this, not sure what the next significant news will be. I've been expecting the aeromag survey results from WS to be announced imminently with drilling targets identified.....

Chart wise, consolidating after the breakout. Bit of a largish pennant thingy formed. Volume going off could indicate distribution, or is that accumulation?  A break up from this formation gives quite a target. Could only happen on news you'd expect. WB MOU perhaps?


----------



## Wilson! (30 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

kennas I am a bit upset over the way mak has been trading
As I have said elsewhere: 

What the hell is going on?
This should be a few bucks in a year or so, and yet these idiots are selling it down 10c??

Come on people, where's the logic
Squillions of $ of phosphate, 2 years to production approx, IPL is $101 share price, mak 46c

What do you think of the silly trading today??


----------



## zengin (31 January 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I am with you on this one Wilson
only 77 trades
shocking volume
too many sellers
and down by 15%
I thought we were going to have a good day on Wednesday but saying this I have about 20 stocks on my watch list and there was very few that did well.
Spec stocks may not be the in thing these days?


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Broken down from that pennant by the look. Would have probably jumped ship if I was technically trading it. Seems to have bounced off the last level of support at 40 cents, likewise Oppies bounced of 20.. Interesting hammer candle representing a potential reversal, but the volume tells me it's been distribution. Any thoughts on that? 

I'm not quite sure how a company can have two current projects with IGV of about $60b, which will have a relatively low capex/opex, and the mineral prices are on the up, with a MC of about $50m...


----------



## Trader Paul (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Hi folks,

MAK ... has some very significant time cycles coming into play,
over the months ahead ..... and should be very strong around:

24042008 ..... 3  positive cycles here 

28042008 ..... 2 time cycles, expecting positive news.

12052008 ... 2 cycles and positive spotlight on MAK = VERY STRONG ? ... 

16-19052008 ..... 4 cycles ... may bring longer-term changes ... finances? 
                   ..... should be quite strong until a minor cycle on 19062008

... but, the best part for MAK is another VERY STRONG run up is
expected, starting early December 2008.

have a great day

 paul

P.S. ... there's many other time cycles for MAK throughout 2008, but 
           those posted here are probably the highlights for the longs.



=====


----------



## Wilson! (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Guys I agree, kennas it is amazing, with IPL share price hitting $128 or so today, that mak should not be quietly drifiting up and up in value

It has to be the most undervalued share on the market, based on its fundamentals. 

Below is what I havwe posted elsewhere. I always believe in backing up my statements with facts or indepth breakdowns. 

-------------

just check out IPL's share price today, if you want to get excited about the mid to long term potential for MAK / MAKO

Not saying it will get to $126 a share straight away or at all, but they claim they have Australias largest undeveloped phosphate discovery, and the price of phosphate is going through the roof, and is stated to continue

So, people say Mak has been ramped a bit, well, fair enough I say, based on this - it's pure logic surely?

- IPL is $126 a share
- Mak is 51c a share
- Yes they are very different companies so not trying to draw a direct comparison, or mislead in any way
- Mak believe they have Australias largest undeveloped phosphate discovery
- the price of phosphate is going through the roof
- In a few years time, how much could mak be producing, compared to IPL, and what would that value the share price at
- When they get news to the market of BFS, feasibility, etc, any news at all, the shareprice wont be below $1 thats for sure
- Oh, and then they have tungsten (quite advanced project), tin, iron and gold up their sleeves
- And then the broker roadshow has seen positive press coming out, and broker recommendations already starting to surface
- In one article last week we saw a comment along the lines of, brokers cant put an exact figure on what the share price should be valued at, but that it should be in dollars, not cents

So I guess at the end of the day, its easy to start jumping up and down on HC, waving our shareholder MAK / MAKO flags, but ultimately, the reason for me personally investing in this company, is the absolutely massive potential, for multibagger returns, based on solid fundfamentals in the mid term onwards

Cheers,
Wilson


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> - IPL is $126 a share
> - Mak is 51c a share
> - Yes they are very different companies so not trying to draw a direct comparison, or mislead in any way



Willo, I think the Rock Phos is going to underpin MAK for the rest of the year while their other projects are worked on, including drilling WS which could be a company maker in itself....

In regard to the sp's, this doesn't mean too much without knowing shares on issue. Perhaps IPL has 100 shares out there......

How do the market caps compare??

And, while we're comparing, it's probably important to point out any other projects IPT have that could underpin the price...

I'm looking into it myself because on the surface of it, it seems rediculous...

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## Wilson! (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey kennas, yes well said mate

IPL has a market cap of $1.06b
MAK has a market cap of $20m

Will have to look into what other projects IPL have on the go
But yes, whilst early days, does seem likely the early days of a baby IPL - I am struggling to find any faults here. 

For now the phosphate is inferred not indicated, but all signs point to it being so soon.

And once confirmation of this change occurs, then well, we know what should happen


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> For now the phosphate is inferred not indicated, but all signs point to it being so soon.
> 
> And once confirmation of this change occurs, then well, we know what should happen



I'm particularly interested in those drill targets outside the resource estimate that are 30%+. In the ann today they stated they were about to be able to confirm drilling contracts to get the JORC sorted and move on. Wonder if they'll put a rig down there and get another target sorted for further expansion....


----------



## grace (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm just wondering why BHP would have sold Phosphate Hill to IPL (our only phoshate currently being mined).  30 years of mine left there I read.  Nice pickup for IPL - just in time to get rises from $50 to $200/tonne.  I like MAK - the rail line already there being such an integral part of getting the project off the ground.  Don't hold yet...but I will soon.


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> I'm just wondering why BHP would have sold Phosphate Hill to IPL (our only phoshate currently being mined).  .



Grace, I think it's the same reason why RIO sold to MAK. The current price of the mineral, and other priorities. 

AEX sold Langer Heinrich to PDN for a few cents..........


----------



## Wilson! (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

kennas

re: I'm particularly interested in those drill targets outside the resource estimate that are 30%+. In the ann today they stated they were about to be able to confirm drilling contracts to get the JORC sorted and move on. Wonder if they'll put a rig down there and get another target sorted for further expansion....

- I am sure they will be making this somewhat of a priority
During their broker roadshows they wouldnt have been saying, well we'll certainly do out best and see where things get to 

They will be working on fast tracking the tungsten project (ie as they may be in the UK now) and working on securing drill rig to get things going with the phosphate

As I said, I can't fault anything here, and any bumps along the way, well hell, PDN and IPL certainly had a few bumps on the chart in the early days, and they 1-2 years later, wow.


----------



## Wilson! (1 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Also just to note, look at slide 16 of presentation lodged 22 January.
It gives you a good timeline of the company expectations in relation to BFS, procurement and financing etc

So, could be on the way to starting production within 2 to 2.5 years possibly

Rail line, as mentioned is already there. just rail it to port, and ship it to china and india


----------



## Sean K (2 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> Rail line, as mentioned is already there. just rail it to port, and ship it to china and india



Willo, I think they mean the Alice to Darwin link don't they that goes past TC. Still need to get it to that line, so they'll have to put in a link I think. It's 230km away isn't it? Not sure how capex can be $18m if it is required. Other options??

PS, the potential reversal I noted above may may have been confirmed with yesterday's bar. On better volume I would have more confidence.


----------



## Evangeline (2 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Andrew Drummond talked about trucking it to Tennant Creek I believe.  I can't remember if he mentioned this in his boardroom radio interview or to me on the phone (the latter I think) and this was one of the reasons they were only going to produce 2-3 million tons pa.....otherwise getting too much to transport as well as concern with bringing market price down.

Would be worth ringing the company to confirm this point...seems a helluva lot to transport doesn't it?


----------



## Evangeline (2 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I just had another look at the ann on January 9 and trucking is implied here:

"At Wonarah, in only the Northern sector of the known mineralization, a JORC compliant 1.95 illion tonnes at 14.4% P205 was estimated by Rio Tinto. In the main zone, the most ntensely drilled to date, there were JORC compliant estimates of between 72 and 115 Mt at 2-23% P205.

*This zone is adjacent to the Barkly Highway which gives direct bitumen road access to the standard gaug rail link at Tennant Creek."*


----------



## Sean K (2 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Cheers Evangeline. Looks to be implied there but 230km by truck!! I suppose if it's $200 a ton then it's economical. Maybe.. Seems a bit far to me. Maybe a train of camels and donkeys can carry it...


----------



## eric35 (2 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I noticed that a director (Edward Ellyard) has sold about $406000 worth of his shares. Any comment?

Does that mean he either needs money or believes that the share price will fall further?


----------



## grace (2 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Looks like they plan to truck the 230km on the Barkley Hwy to Tennant Creek.  That might get a bit tiring after a while!  

Here is some info on the setup of Phosphate Hill curtesy of BHP.  A lot of infrastructure.

http://www.sirfrt.com.au/Meetings/I...eter Grunke FERTILIZERS BUSINESS OVERVIEW.pdf


----------



## JTLP (3 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



eric35 said:


> I noticed that a director (Edward Ellyard) has sold about $406000 worth of his shares. Any comment?
> 
> Does that mean he either needs money or believes that the share price will fall further?




Eric, you can't read too much into these things. Directors are just like you and I, they need money to fund lifestyles. You must take into account that some directors of small cap companies do not make a lot of money from directors fee's etc, so perhaps selling is just to fund a lifestyle (helpign to buy house?)

The ones you have to look for is something like PRU, when a director owns 10,000 then buys on market 400,000 or something to that effect. Now that is worth watching


----------



## Wilson! (3 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey guys

Kennas, for a few free oppies I'll buy a truck and do it! Not too far when it is a P&L action - there will be enough $ in it

Hey kennas, any thoughts on the quality of grades of the phosphate at their site?

Director sold a few, there was an email form him going around, he expolained directors are investors and need money for the bills and mortgage too - old news

Good week ahead here's hoping boys and girls


----------



## Sean K (4 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> Kennas, for a few free oppies I'll buy a truck and do it! Not too far when it is a P&L action - there will be enough $ in it
> 
> Hey kennas, any thoughts on the quality of grades of the phosphate at their site?
> 
> Director sold a few, there was an email form him going around, he expolained directors are investors and need money for the bills and mortgage too - old news



As far as transport goes, I think the donkey's are winning at the moment.  

Any idea how Incitec move there's near Mt Isa. Any idea about the 'possible slurry pipeline' from the Legend deposit. Don't know anything about them. Maybe MAK can slurry to their slurry? 

Grades, Incitec have 82Mt @ 24.4% at Duchess, and MAK have 72Mt (at least) @ 23% at Wonarah in the high grade area. I can't see how grades are an issue there. 

Personally, I don't like directors selling. Ever. Even for Christmas presents.


----------



## Wilson! (4 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks Kennas

Yes I imagine Incitec have it sorted, and so mak may likely model something similar, just depends on location location location I guess

Re: Grades, Incitec have 82Mt @ 24.4% at Duchess, and MAK have 72Mt (at least) @ 23% at Wonarah in the high grade area. I can't see how grades are an issue there.

That does sound good. 
I was questioned on TS about the grades by somebody and wanted to come back with an appropriate response. 

Got a 10 month old so time is not on my side...
So I wonder how the rest of the grades fair though 
Will try and do some digging unless someone already wants to know, and care and share


----------



## Wilson! (4 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey guys

Below is a response I just posted on TS in relation to a question as to the quality of grades for Mak's phosphate. 

Hope it is all accurate etc. 

Hi Rileyi

Thanks for your comments, its important to always question the information presented, and the research and work behind the decisions we make 

In regards to the grades for Mak's phosphate - below is a comment from another posted on ASF, and some research I did this weekend, in and around changing nappies and playing cricket 

Re: Grades, Incitec have 82Mt @ 24.4% at Duchess, and MAK have 72Mt (at least) @ 23% at Wonarah in the high grade area. I can't see how grades are an issue there.

From what I have been able to gather from the Managing Director`s AGM Presentation dated 29th Nov: 


Their exploration target is 26-60million tonnes
Working on for now 26mt at 18% = 4.7mt CaF2
This gives mak the county's largest deposit of 26mt - the second largest is 4mt at 25% which is Speewah

They are looking to mine 3mtpa which would be 7% of total world output 

World demand is currently outstripping supply and looks set to continue to do so

Whilst more miners will now look to turn previously uneconomical deposits into mines to take advantage of the rising phosphate prices, Mak is best placed to be first cab off the rank

Please refer to Vayama's post under the mak thread, on more specific numbers around production levels, and revenues, which lead to potential share price targets for Mak based solely around the phosphate deposit

Haven't go ttime to summarise the tin, tungsten, gold etc but...

There is also very little discussion on it's potential for iron ore. Mak's iron ore lease is adjacent to a 0.5billion tonne deposit (Grange Resources Southdown deposit) - so future news could be quite nice here. 

They will partner out this project to develop, so low cash costs with potential high rewards

Jan / Feb 08 - Interpretation and target selection after Nov / Dec 07 areomagnetic surveying 
First qtr 08 - drilling on hotspots subject to rig availability

Hope this is useful

Cheers,
Wilson


----------



## Sean K (4 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> the potential reversal I noted above may have been confirmed with yesterday's bar. On better volume I would have more confidence.



Still no great volume, but gapped up this am. Wouldn't be surprised with the general market coming off this arvo as it's overshot futures opening, and MAK may go with it. Nice it's bounced off that support, but still into consolidation after the break up. 

Detailed forced daily commentary at this time is a little fruitless as it's longer term future prospects rely on some confirmation of Wonarah and Moina potential including the mineral prices. Still some time for drilling to commence at Franklin/WS EM targets and drilling. So, some time for patience and realisation that desire for instant gratification results in a strong come down.


----------



## grace (4 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> Looks like they plan to truck the 230km on the Barkley Hwy to Tennant Creek.  That might get a bit tiring after a while!
> 
> Here is some info on the setup of Phosphate Hill curtesy of BHP.  A lot of infrastructure.
> 
> http://www.sirfrt.com.au/Meetings/I...eter Grunke FERTILIZERS BUSINESS OVERVIEW.pdf




Have another look at this report, IPL use all rail from what I can gather from Phosphate Hill to Townsville and Mt Isa.  Also see gas pipeline.

www.sirfrt.com.au/Meetings/IMRt/Nor...eter Grunke FERTILIZERS BUSINESS OVERVIEW.pdf


----------



## Sean K (7 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Ann out on drill rigs for Wonarah.

Good to know they can win these prized assets, but I won't be holding my breath for them to be on time with all the other acty going on...I say that due to their other contracting issues to date...

Anyway, the market should like they're pushing forward.



> Minemakers is pleased to announce that it has secured contracts for rigs for both RC and diamond drill testing of its Wonarah rock phosphate project in the Northern Territory.
> 
> The drilling programmes will have three aims, as follows.
> 
> ...


----------



## imaginator (7 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/an...ssuerCode=MAK&timeFrameSearchType=Y&year=2008

ANN out, MAK drills!


----------



## Eric (7 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK hit 66 cents, great stuff. Could this be the resistance now or will it break through?

Eric www.tradingaustralianshares.com


----------



## grace (7 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Wow, big move based on getting some drill rigs in in a couple of months.  They are really going to move when some "big" news comes in.  Guess I'm just jealous I still don't hold.


----------



## derty (7 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

You would think as they won't be drilling until April that it the SP will slide somewhat once this run is over, albeit hopefully down to a new level of support above the $0.45-$0.50 range. Though if it does have a couple more forays into the sub $0.45 territory I will be putting some more of these in my boots  

Quite happy with today's level of interest.


----------



## Sean K (8 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> the potential reversal I noted above may may have been confirmed with yesterday's bar.



Was a reversal...for now. :



derty said:


> You would think as they won't be drilling until April that it the SP will slide somewhat once this run is over,



Perhaps, but might depend on what other news comes out. They've got 3 or 4 things in the pipeline at the moment due for announcement. Moina drilling and updated resource, West Southdown aeromagnetic targets and possible partner, Story Creek JV (or not). All due.


----------



## Evangeline (8 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

As I understand it from Andrew Drummond, mak are also metallurgical tests done on their Moina project in Tassie atm.  The results should be in by end of this quarter and could also kick the sp along considerably!


----------



## Sean K (8 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Golly there's some quite rediculous FA valuations been put on this on the dark side, all based on ass umptions plucked from thereabouts....

However, if Rock Phos prices stay about $200 for the next 10 years, this really could do quite well, just on Wonarah..... Fingers crossed.

This is quite clearly a pole and pennant that I've identified along the way, (bit hard to identify the exact length of the 'pole' however) but if it goes to script gives quite a crazy target. Shouldn't happen really, but I wouldn't mind it!


----------



## jtb (9 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> Wow, big move based on getting some drill rigs..... Guess I'm just jealous I still don't hold.




Your not Robinson Crusoe Grace

I had been watching those options around 25c like a hawk.
Obviously not the only one.

Back to circling for the mo'


----------



## Sean K (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm very surprised with the strength of this in this market. Maybe it's just ramping on other forums but seems to have been re-rated perhaps after the Wonarah FS was published. With Rock Phos showing little signs of any dramatic sell off back to the sub $100 level, Wonarah looks to be a goer.

Plenty of news to come this quarter, which will hopefully surprise to the upside. Anything negative in these conditions and it'll be punished. 

Hope some ASF'ers have been on this too. Hopefully it continues....


----------



## Kimosabi (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I'm very surprised with the strength of this in this market. Maybe it's just ramping on other forums but seems to have been re-rated perhaps after the Wonarah FS was published. With Rock Phos showing little signs of any dramatic sell off back to the sub $100 level, Wonarah looks to be a goer.
> 
> Plenty of news to come this quarter, which will hopefully surprise to the upside. Anything negative in these conditions and it'll be punished.
> 
> Hope some ASF'ers have been on this too. Hopefully it continues....



Well, so far MAK has been a great pick for the Stock Picking competition this month, hopefully the good news keeps on coming...


----------



## Sean K (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hopefully today's break is a breakaway gap,  although unlikely.....must consolidate some more...

Target from that pennant is about $1.00, but depends on where the top of the pole is. Around the top of the blue line and around the green circle I guestimate. 

Fertiiser prices seem to be skyrocketing. Hopefully not too much. Slow and steady wins the race.

IPL is reaping the rewards, hopefully MAK can follow suit if they get this project rocking.



> 0857 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse raises Incitec (IPL.AU) 12-month target price to A$155.00 from A$109.50 to reflect rising fertilizer prices. "*We believe in stronger for longer (phosphate) fertilizer prices*," CS says in client note. "This is driven by no new material capacity coming online until CY11/CY12, increased capital construction costs (and therefore higher prices to justify new investment), increased global demand and material increases to the marginal cost of production for nonintegrated players (phosphate rock in particular)." Keeps outperform. "We believe IPL's share price still does not capture 'stronger-for-longer' fertilizer prices or the option value with regards to future growth initiatives." Last trade A$131.00. (ABH)


----------



## ta2693 (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I feel the price level is very risky now. About 80c! 
Technically speaking, the price jump up with gap after a big rise is a sign to turn around. 
Watch out mate.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I'm not sure what Yogi saw,
> 
> But heres what I see,
> 
> ...





Hmmm that post of mine was back in Feb 2007, its interesting to see how far the company has progressed since then

Just wish I held more


----------



## grace (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Listening to ABC Country hour just then - graingrowers rep saying that he estimates 1/3 of farmers in Australia won't get finance to grow a crop this year because of rising seed, fertilizer and fuel prices.  Some farmers (including us) will just not pay for fertilizer at current prices.  It is just not worth putting it on.   Just some feedback from the farmers' perspective.  I hope MAK makes it though.  We will invest when the price is right perhaps as a hedge.  The graph looks a bit steep at the moment.


----------



## champ2003 (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> Listening to ABC Country hour just then - graingrowers rep saying that he estimates 1/3 of farmers in Australia won't get finance to grow a crop this year because of rising seed, fertilizer and fuel prices.  Some farmers (including us) will just not pay for fertilizer at current prices.  It is just not worth putting it on.   Just some feedback from the farmers' perspective.  I hope MAK makes it though.  We will invest when the price is right perhaps as a hedge.  The graph looks a bit steep at the moment.




Just like fuel prices won't be coming down due to rising production costs to get oil out of the ground i don't see how fertilizer is going to get any cheaper as well. The farmers simply have to up the price of the crops/food that they are selling to the retailers. 

They have to buy or simply go out of business, it's as simple as that. How much people will pay for food remains to be seen. Farmers will pay and they will also hedge against rising prices by investing into companies like MAK. I know that some farmers are already are doing this.


----------



## grace (12 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Just like fuel prices won't be coming down due to rising production costs to get oil out of the ground i don't see how fertilizer is going to get any cheaper as well. The farmers simply have to up the price of the crops/food that they are selling to the retailers.
> 
> They have to buy or simply go out of business, it's as simple as that. How much people will pay for food remains to be seen. Farmers will pay and they will also hedge against rising prices by investing into companies like MAK. I know that some farmers are already are doing this.




I do agree with you, fertilizer prices will stay buoyant.  Some farmers do not have a choice whether they use it or not (re soil type, depending on what they are growing etc).  We don't use fertilizer every year.  Those similar to ourselves may choose not to.  In any case, Australia is a net importer of fertilizer and that won't change, so there is a domestic need here for another producer.  I imagine IPL will be watching MAK with very big eyes as time goes on.


----------



## hangseng (13 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Don't underestimate the value of sustainability and permaculture.

http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/trans.html#composts

http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/perma.html

Chemical fertilisers used in bulk form are known destructers of the environment. Short term thinking.

I add they have destroyed major reef systems worldwide.


----------



## Sean K (13 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



hangseng said:


> Don't underestimate the value of sustainability and permaculture.
> 
> http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/trans.html#composts
> 
> ...



Yes, we should be careful about the introduction of fertilisers. Perhaps we have some guidelines about their use somewhere?

The only reference to Rock Phosphate I could find in these documents was this:



> Significant additions of lime, rock phosphate, and other fertilizers should be guided by soil testing to avoid soil imbalances and unnecessary expenditure on inputs.




And there was no reference to "they have  destroyed major reef systems worldwide." Got an independant reference for that?

You got shares in permaculture hangseng.


----------



## Sean K (13 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Target from that pennant is about $1.00, but depends on where the top of the pole is. Around the top of the blue line and around the green circle I guestimate.



Target hit at 98 cents. Nearing, or at, overbought signals everywhere. More consolidation well due. I'm not concerned about the sell off yesterday at the peak, it still finished well up on the day. A gravestone doji would have been more of a concern. Just traders taking profits IMO and not a reversal.  (that'll come back and bite me)


----------



## Wilson! (13 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey kennas

Looks good huh?
Agree it was just traders taking profits yesterday, and some expecting a dow drop. 

I kind of hope it comes back 10c today before pushing on again, so I can grab some more and also for the sake of the chart 

It's nice to see a plan come together though I must say


----------



## Sean K (13 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> It's nice to see a plan come together though I must say



Yeah, although the reason I first bought into this was for Story's Creek and West Southdown/Franklin not Wonarah or Moina - the reasons why it's actually run. Must thank Yogi and YT for pointing it out 12 months ago, although even YT admits we were looking at it from a different angle back then. Still a long way to go for this to be a long term winner though, IMO. Still an explorer and speculative. Anything can happen, and probably will.


----------



## meganut (13 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Yeah, although the reason I first bought into this was for Story's Creek and West Southdown/Franklin




And to think i was born and raised in Albany and never new this was in the pipeline, what do others think about Grange which should be producing ore concentrate from Wellstead just out of Albany WA shortly?


----------



## hangseng (13 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Yes, we should be careful about the introduction of fertilisers. Perhaps we have some guidelines about their use somewhere?
> 
> The only reference to Rock Phosphate I could find in these documents was this:
> 
> ...




No no shares in permaculture, just something I have become interested in and have seen effectively applied in viticulture. Lower production rates than fertilisers but far more sustainable, consistent and no environmental harm. Just threw this in for forum chat/discussion so to speak.

As for reef systems you need to do more research, this is well documented where uncontrolled runoff and leaching occurs close to coastal regions. We are also progressively reclaiming large tracks of coastal land and in doing so destroying natures filters, such as mangroves, swamps etc.

Short term I happen to agree that chemical fertilisers will be sought after as food demand increases worldwide.


----------



## Sean K (14 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



hangseng said:


> As for reef systems you need to do more research



HS, I look forward to a reference for where Fertilisers have "destroyed *major *reef systems *worldwide*". I'm truly interested if this is the case, cheers. 


More news out. MAK ann they've appointed some contarctors to get on with the business of taking Wonarah forward. They're moving pretty quick with this which is good to see. Perhaps trying to fast track things while Rock Phos is at such high levels. 



> ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
> 
> WONARAH STUDY MANAGERS APPOINTED
> 14 February 2008
> ...


----------



## chops_a_must (14 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hmmm...

Am looking at this seriously because of the phosphate leverage. The chart reminds me very much of CNM's.

From a long term perspective, just wondering what earnings really will come from their phosphate projects? They have so many on the go, none of them may get developed properly. I would be only looking at this for a monetary trade, not a long term hold.

Thinking of actually buying Potash Corp in the US. Wheat futures look to be going limit up again after a brief dip... hence the massive move on IPL today.

Surprised WES has not moved on the fertiliser price explosion, given CSBP provides quite a lot of money to them.

In regards to environmental damage. Yeah, the old fertilisers were horrific for the environment. But most places around the world have put in regulations to stop the production of the worst types. And now piggeries and the like are the biggest dangers to a lot of waterways.

But CSBP and Nufarm had some pretty big brains developing some great "friendly" fertilisers in the 90s, which are used by most of the producers today. Which is perhaps why the Chinese were so interested in them. But unfortunately, fertiliser remains a necessary evil.

I expect a massive squeeze on fertiliser prices this year, given drought breaking rain in Oz.

I think I'll stay with the companies that can cash in on this boom now, but will keep a very close eye on MAK.


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



chops_a_must said:


> Hmmm...
> 
> Am looking at this seriously because of the phosphate leverage. The chart reminds me very much of CNM's.



To be honest Chops, I reckon all the big gains have been made on this. 20c to almost $1 in 6 weeks... Unsustainable IMO.

However, the Phosphate story is a real one, and they are currently sitting on $65b IGV with a fairly simple deposit to mine and ship out. It's just relying on Rock Phos prices to remain robust and the stock should be trading much higher going towards production. 

Assume Rock Phos stays at $200/t, they are targetiing 2-3Mtpa. Opex is projected to be under $100/t so 2-3Mtpa @ $100 = $2-300m profit less tax etc etc. Current MC $65m....MC might still have some room to move. Will need to raise quite a bit of cash to get it moving however, and/or maybe a partner. The company reckons they're going to take it forward solo but I think they're having a play with themselves. 

Then add in Moina, Story's Ck, Franklin .....

Chart wise, could possible see a trace back to support as indicated, but there's also this new pole and pennant forming giving another rediculous target....


----------



## Evangeline (16 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kennas

How do you work out the target with the pole and pennant formation?  Ridiculous though it may be I would be most interested to know>

Thanks
Eva


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Evangeline said:


> Kennas
> 
> How do you work out the target with the pole and pennant formation?  Ridiculous though it may be I would be most interested to know>
> 
> ...



The length of the pole from the breakout is the target. 

It's occasionally discretionary as to where the pole starts and finishes, so it takes some 'judgement'. The way of basic TA. 

More info here.


----------



## hangseng (16 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> HS, I look forward to a reference for where Fertilisers have "destroyed *major *reef systems *worldwide*". I'm truly interested if this is the case, cheers.
> 
> 
> More news out. MAK ann they've appointed some contarctors to get on with the business of taking Wonarah forward. They're moving pretty quick with this which is good to see. Perhaps trying to fast track things while Rock Phos is at such high levels.




Following a discussion Kennas offline I have decided it proper to correct my what may be termed overuse of expletives on the subject of reef damage caused by fertilisers.

In reviewing my wording I retract the probably over enthusiastic term "total destruction of complete reef systems" and replace with "significantly contributing to the degradation of reef systems and corals", which is basically the fact of what I was intending to communicate. Also I neglected to mention that Cadmium (found in phosphate fertilisers) is a major source of harm to corals as is the algal blooms caused by introduction of phosphates from all sources which includes phosphate fertilisers, in particular chemical fertilisers.

For what it is worth I actually like MAK and have done for some time. I suppose what I was doing was just adding a balance to the phosphate discussion, unintentionally and seemingly downgrading MAK.

I have sent Kennas many links, except these which are a little more direct.
http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/17544/sub039.pdf
http://www.demeter.org.au/case-study2.pdf

The discussion over fertiliser run-off contributing to the environmental harm of reef systems is real, however I apologise if I was seemingly putting down MAK, definately not intended.

Love it or hate it fertiliser demand in the near future is going to be huge and MAK will be a winner in this. The negative effects of this longer term in regard to my environmental side of the discussion remain to be seen.

My disclosure in all of this. I am a lover of anything related to the open seas, reef systems, diving and recreational fishing. Oh, and I also believe permiculture has a place as does responsible use of fertlisers.

Cheers to all
Hangseng


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



hangseng said:


> My disclosure in all of this. I am a lover of anything related to the open seas, reef systems, diving and recreational fishing. Oh, and I also believe permiculture has a place as does responsible use of fertlisers.
> 
> Cheers to all
> Hangseng



Thanks HS, 

I am a long time diver and worked as a divemaster for some time in the Carribean. Would hate to think that Rock Phos was killing the fishes....

kennas


----------



## agro (18 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

*Early Start to Metallurgical Testwork at Wonarah*

this is posted abit late but for those who are not aware of the 20% jump in price..

Minemakers has secured a diamond drilling rig in the NT.

watch this one


----------



## Kimosabi (18 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I hope they keep this up until the end of the month, I've currently got a 100% lead in the stock tipping competition  ==> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/stocktip.php


----------



## trillionaire#1 (18 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

yeah you have made a slight gap on us all 
i made the poor decision recently to sell this stock at 56 cents!


----------



## shaunm (18 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Dang I'm also rue-ing the day I sold out at 50 cents! I'm a bit scared now to jump in as I can't believe how high this has gone...and just over securing a drilling rig!?
 If the results aren't great I'd hate to be stuck in this high.
Keeping a close eye though.


----------



## Evangeline (18 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

i can't see why the results would be bad....rio already ran the ruler over it and came up with pretty solid figures making it economically feasible at $100 a ton...unfortunately for rio it was only $40 a ton at the time and so they gave it up to indo.

now that P is $200+ a ton, obviously at least $100 a ton is sheer profit, and by rio's figures there is at least 73 million tons.  As Andrew Drummond said, they'll be mining it after he's dead!  Also not to forget the Aruruwa prospect nearby, which is said to be closer to the surface and hence cheaper to mine and to have very high grades of 30%...we'll just have to wait and see.

Meanwhile P is a finite and diminishing resource..in danger of running out in the next 60 to 130 years (depending on which report you read), so while the price of P might correct, it will probably never return to being uneconomical.

I am definately holding for the long term as imo we will see much higher prices still for this one.


----------



## Birdster (18 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Kimosabi said:


> I hope they keep this up until the end of the month, I've currently got a 100% lead in the stock tipping competition  ==> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/stocktip.php




Fantastic Kimosabi! Hope your holding as well as tipping it! It has to hold till up till the end of the month in tipping, not if your holding.  Maybe my tip will pip the post by the end of Feb, after all, I have an extra day this month to do it.


----------



## Sean K (19 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Chart wise, could possible see a trace back to support as indicated, but there's also this new pole and pennant forming giving another rediculous target....



Target from the pole and pennant met at $1.20 ish. I'm not calling any more pole and pennant possibilities here.... 

Never been involved with such a climb before, with the options going from 5 to 100. I agree with comments about jumping in now, even though the longer term potential is clear. I thought all the big gains had been made to $1.00 ish, but who knows. With the market cap spiriling up, care needs to be taken. Just what is it worth on the funnies?? Need to see some more on the feasibility side of things me feels...


----------



## Black Range (19 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Here's a rundown of MAKs trading stats today Tuesday 19th Feb.

No. of Trades: 989
Volume: 4,752,497

Opening Price: 1.150
High Price:.......1.300 Record High.
Low Price:.......1.105

Todays Close $1.105

Todays Closing last 10 Trades.
16:10:59..1.105 10,000. $11,050.00
16:10:59..1.105 10,718. $11,843.39
16:10:59..1.105 25,000. $27,625.00
16:10:59..1.105 14,282. $15,781.61
16:10:59..1.105 4,031... $4,454.26
16:10:59..1.105 1,000... $1,105.00
16:10:59..1.105 1,600... $1,768.00
16:10:59..1.105 3,400... $3,757.00
16:10:59..1.105 2,600... $2,873.00 XT
16:10:59..1.105 10,000. $11,050.00

Here's an Intra-Day Trading Chart of the final 2 Hours of Trading between 2.00p.m. - 4.11p.m. which shows a final late sell off from $1.12 to a close of $1.105 on a Volume of 126,631 Shares. I personally find this Intra-Day Trading Chart the best Indicator to understand Buyer/Seller sentiment, Note ** especially into the final period of a days trading as it gives an insight to the next mornings Open 

(clearly shows distinct selling from $1.17 down to todays close of $1.105)


5-day EMA:.. 0.913
10-day EMA: 0.806
15-day EMA: 0.736
30-day EMA: 0.608

Closing buyers depth $1.105 (1,058,715) 91 Count
Closing sellers depth $1.140 (489,512) 48 Count
_________________________________________________________

Past 10 Days of MAK Trading

Historical Values
Date.......... Open...High....Low.....Close........Volume
19-02-2008.. 1.150.. 1.300..1.105..1.105..... 4,752,497
18-02-2008.. 0.880.. 1.160..0.850..1.115..... 3,514,038
15-02-2008.. 0.870.. 0.895..0.830..0.845..... 721,425
14-02-2008.. 0.840.. 0.910..0.810..0.890..... 1,257,930
13-02-2008.. 0.890.. 0.905..0.810..0.810..... 1,293,121
12-02-2008.. 0.765.. 0.980..0.760..0.850..... 5,042,712
11-02-2008.. 0.680.. 0.730..0.635..0.730..... 2,279,214
08-02-2008.. 0.690.. 0.740..0.625..0.665..... 2,954,058
07-02-2008.. 0.530.. 0.660..0.530..0.660..... 2,072,902
06-02-2008.. 0.525.. 0.530..0.490..0.520..... 292,770

What a ride
*** NOTE 8th of January 2008 MAK was trading at 26cents
.
Cheers from grant64 
.
.
.


----------



## imaginator (20 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi all,

For those who haven't bought into MAK, is it still ok to move in? Or too late?

I have been watching this one since mid Jan, but waiting for my tax return so I can put it in.....


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



imaginator said:


> Hi all,
> 
> For those who haven't bought into MAK, is it still ok to move in? Or too late?
> 
> I have been watching this one since mid Jan, but waiting for my tax return so I can put it in.....



It's a tough one imaginator. I've been waiting for a decent pull back/consolidation to top up a few but it's just kept going, to my surprise. You would have to expect some more shortly, or perhaps now. 

It's definately been re-rated on Wonarah, but just what the MC should be, based on the projected earnings, with the time/risk discount to production factored in, is very difficult. I did some rough earnings calculations on the previous page, which makes a 100m ish MC look pretty cheap still.


----------



## grace (20 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I have not bought these yet as the year of 2007 was full of scars for me (falling knives).  I have learnt from my former life - as best I can.
I am hoping to buy these at 70cents next month before drilling starts in April....only time will tell on that one!


----------



## morton_mains (20 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Great number crunching going on here - just remember to knock 10% off any NPV calcs. for Indo (IDO) who sold Wongarah to MAK and still hold 10% Option to buy back in for 20% of the capex. But it hasn't moved _their _price..yet


----------



## chops_a_must (22 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> To be honest Chops, I reckon all the big gains have been made on this. 20c to almost $1 in 6 weeks... Unsustainable IMO.
> 
> However, the Phosphate story is a real one, and they are currently sitting on $65b IGV with a fairly simple deposit to mine and ship out. It's just relying on Rock Phos prices to remain robust and the stock should be trading much higher going towards production.
> 
> ...




I think this has quite a way to go to be honest. Potential retrace to about 85c? Not particularly keen on small caps at this stage... but interested in anything agricultural at the moment.

Do you know what time frame they think they can get the rock phos out in?

If the fed does try to inflate their way out of this, watch anything inelastic go beserk, including this stuff.

Not sure where you can get up to date rock phos prices, but have been using the etf "MOO" ticker on the amex to get a gauge on where these services/ products to ag type companies are going.

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K (22 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



chops_a_must said:


> Do you know what time frame they think they can get the rock phos out in?



This is the indicative timeline to production. The procurement and construction phase looks a little short to me, but I suppose depends on what they need to actually do....


----------



## JTLP (22 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Overbought?

Kennas how is your pole and pennant formation looking? What was that target again?

I don't know if gaps will be filled as this was a break away, but would it be reasonable to assume some profut taking & and retrace of some sorts?

Yes the company has lots of different projects, but this is quite a move with impending results a decent 6 - 8 weeks away. Anyone with answers/additional info?


----------



## Sean K (22 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



JTLP said:


> Overbought?
> 
> Kennas how is your pole and pennant formation looking? What was that target again?



Possibly, but might be just finding what could be it's true value at the moment.

Target from the last little formation was met at $1.40. I keep saying it, but some natural consolidation expected and required. 

We should see some other news in regard to Moina, Franklin, Story Ck, and the Tasmanian radiometrics shortly. It's going to be a busy few weeks.


----------



## Sean K (22 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Quite high turnover when they only have 42.5m tradeable shares.

Will probably get a speeding ticket here. I think over a 15% gain is scrutinised. It's on the back of the Wonarah ann I think, even though that was some time ago, so that'll be their reply I imagine. 

Wonder if it's just small investors buying in, or a larger fish is taking some bites? Heads up for a significant shareholder notice perhaps? Just speculation of course. IPL maybe? With all their other projects I wouldn't expect a takeover, but just an 'investment' perhaps.


----------



## Black Range (23 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

To all MAK Holders here's a rundown of Friday 22nd Feb. Trading. I've also included a Closing Intra-Day Trading Chart so as to better understand Fridays Trading patterns as they unfolded.


No. of Trades: 883
Volume:............. 4,311,766 ** Average 21Day Vol..1,938,095

Opening Price:... 1.165
High Price:........ 1.415
Low Price:......... 1.150

Todays Close $1.390
Closing Buy Depths: $1.39 (1,088,585)
Closing Sell Depths: $1.40 (280,570)

6-month High: 1.415

5-day EMA: 1.062
10-day EMA: 0.947
15-day EMA: 0.862
30-day EMA: 0.700

Last 10 Days Trading.
Date..............Close.....Days Volume.
22-02-2008...$1.390.... 4,311,766
21-02-2008...$1.190.... 1,586,65
20-02-2008...$1.035.... 1,586,5983
19-02-2008...$1.105.... 4,752,497
18-02-2008...$1.115.... 3,514,038
15-02-2008...$0.845.... 721,425
14-02-2008...$0.890.... 1,257,930
13-02-2008...$0.810.... 1,293,121
12-02-2008...$0.850.... 5,042,712
11-02-2008...$0.730.... 2,279,214


Cheers to all MAK Holders from grant64 
.
.
P.S. One to Keep an eye on is (AOE) ARROW ENERGY... 


Here's yesterdays Closing Intra-Day Chart for Friday 22nd FEB. for the period 12.43p.m to 4.11p.m. showing good Buyer support at $1.27...... with a nice bounce to Close at $1.39.

 Green Line Displays Buyers, Orange Sellers Market Depth. Blue Line represents previous days close.


----------



## grace (23 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Anyone game to say what happens next for the share price?  Congratulations to all holders - some nice gains there I'm sure.  He who hesitates......(or I should say she).  Still waiting for the big sell off that just has not happened!

Market cap = $59 million - any thoughts now?


----------



## grace (23 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Here is the latest MAK chart.  Wow, it looks wicked.  The question is, can it keep going?  I have heard the share register is 10% farmers.  I wonder if it still is?


----------



## Fed23 (25 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Skyrocketing today. AS high as $1.53 just in the first hour.

Wish I had bought more units but I was worried it would do a backflip after I bought in


----------



## cuttlefish (25 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

All sounds a bit far fetched to me, even though I can understand the arithmetic that gets people excited.  Stocks with exciting numbers and no drill holes and not much money are a dime a dozen in this market.

I told myself I would not buy into this at all and have been expecting it to consolidate and move sideways for the next gazillion years until they actually drill a hole or something exciting like that.  

But I gave in today and bought a smallish parcel (talk about a lack of discipline) so that in case irrationality propels them to further dizzy heights, at least I'll have been part of the great 'fertiliser' rush.   I'm sure the BS being generated with the hype on this alone would be enough to fertilise a fair few fields of wheat - if it looks like fertiliser and smells like fertiliser it probably is fertiliser lol.   So now having bought in, tomorrow I expect it will commence a gazillion week sideways or downwards consolidation.


----------



## Sean K (25 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



cuttlefish said:


> All sounds a bit far fetched to me, even though I can understand the arithmetic that gets people excited.  Stocks with exciting numbers and no drill holes and not much money are a dime a dozen in this market.



cuttlefish, while you've got in well into the current run, and I think the big gains have been made, fear not about the drill holes. Wonarah has holes all over it, drilled by RIO. I recommend you look into that particular project a little more and even read the original prospectus that contains all the details of all their projects, including the non JORC numbers (pre JORC code) that they have to work off. 

I originally bought this for the West Southdown iron ore and still think that just that project could be worth 100-200m to their MC. Compare their strike legths to Grange's Southdown deposit for a comparison. It's been done in the thread before, and it's well shown on their presentations.


----------



## cuttlefish (25 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Don't worry Kenna's I'm pretty thorough in my research - I've read about the RIO drill holes etc. plus all of the other stuff on this stock.  The harder one to predict is the sustainability of high rock phosphate prices and the other factor is that its simply a very long way away from being developed and there are plenty of stocks that are way undervalued vs in-ground value (even if using 1% of in-ground for market cap as the benchmark).

I've bought into this because its a little unusual, has strong momentum, and some on-paper figures that are significant if taken at face value on current prices. In a generally down market its a situation that has the potential psychological ingredients to continue to run imo.

I'm not going to defend the decision too much though - its a blatant case of "fear of missing out" for me in this situation lol which is usually the wrong way to invest!


----------



## grace (25 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



cuttlefish said:


> I'm not going to defend the decision too much though - its a blatant case of "fear of missing out" for me in this situation lol which is usually the wrong way to invest!




Know how that feels.  I had a nightmare about NOT owning MAK the other night.  That's the first time I've ever had such a thing!  I normally don't have nightmares at all!

Kennas, where's your poles and flags thing?  Or has this graph blown all TA out of the water!


----------



## meganut (25 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



cuttlefish said:


> I'm not going to defend the decision too much though - its a blatant case of "fear of missing out" for me in this situation lol which is usually the wrong way to invest!




You can't get'em all, maybe you should have sat this one out if it went against your better judgement and just waited for the next BIG ONE that your comfortable with, and there will be heaps more.


----------



## cuttlefish (25 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Todays strength was unusual - it was a day where I'd have expected a shooting star or some kind of reversal pattern but it showed reasonable continuation in the afternoon (in fact today it accelarated even further out of the existing steep short term uptrend).  Volumes haven't been overly excessive and today's volume wasn't too out of kilter with the previous volumes of this run and volume in $ value isn't overly excessive either.  

The $60m  market cap is still in line with a typical spec junior with a valuable JORC so its not into complete silly territory yet.  The stock has attracted a lot of attention and has good momentum.  Its also a slightly unusual situation as stated above with the phosphate etc., and the numbers on face value are spectacular.  I'm a bit skeptical about it all but I can see the market getting attracted to numbers like this.

So unlike most of the ones I'd usually avoid I decided to take a relatively small position.  Fairly wide stop, main exit criteria will be it travelling sideways or downwards long enough to have clearly fallen out of the current steep uptrend.


----------



## Evangeline (26 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

In regard to the price of P heading south anytime soon, read this and draw your own conclusions:

Found these notes as part of an academic study by a doctoral student at UTS, Dana Cordell, on the phosphate crisis and global food security. These are just a few points from her extensive study on phosphorus. P is rapidly diminishing and we are going to have to find ways of conserving and recycling this essential resource:


1. Phosphorus is essential for all living matter, including 
bacteria, plants and animals. It is essential for food 
production in the form of fertilizers (and indeed a limiting factor in crop yields) and hence a critical global resource, along side water and energy resources.

2. The majority of the world's agricultural fields today rely on fertilizers derived from inorganic minerals, such as phosphate rock. Phosphate rock is a non-renewable 
resource, and current known reserves are likely to be 
depleted in 50-100 years.

3. While other non-renewable natural resources used in 
society - like oil - can be substituted with other sources (like wind, biomass or thermal energy), phosphorus has no 
substitute in food production.

4. Unlike other major biogeochemical cycles, phosphorus has 
no atmospheric phase, meaning it takes millions of years to 
cycle naturally between the lithosphere and hydrosphere, 
and is thus more sensitive to anthropogenic disruptions (like mining, which releases phosphorus from the lithosphere to the hydrosphere at rates of days to years).

5. 85-90% of the phosphate rock extracted globally is for food production (the remainder is for industrial applications like detergents).

6. A balanced diet results in depletion of around 22.5kg/yr of phosphate rock (or 3.2kg/yr of P) per person based on 
current practice. This is 50 times greater than the 1.2 g/d 
per person recommended daily intake of P.8 

7. Demand for phosphorus is increasing globally, despite a 
downward trend in developed regions like Western Europe. 
This is due to an increasing per capita and overall demand 
for food in developing countries, from increasing population and global trends towards more meat- and dairy-based diets, which are significantly more P intensive.

8. If we hope to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of 
eradicating hunger, we must change the way we source and 
use phosphorus in global food production. The African 
continent is simultaneously the world�s largest producer of 
phosphate rock (almost 30% of the global share) and the 
continent with the largest deficit in food security.

9. Phosphate rock reserves are highly geographically 
concentrated, and thus only exist under control of a small 
number of countries, including China, Morocco (who owns 
Western Sahara's reserves), and the US. The US has 
approximately 25 years of reserves remaining, while China 
has indicated it will no longer import or export phosphate 
rock. Western Europe and India are totally dependent on 
imports.

10. Importing Western Saharan P rock via Moroccan authorities is condemned by the UN and has recently been boycotted by several Scandinavian firms.

11. Phosphate rock mining currently relies on cheap fossil energy, like oil. As oil reserves peak, price of phosphate rock will also increase further.

12. Phosphate rock mining, processing and transportation 
represents a significant percentage of energy use in agriculture. Around 30% of energy use in agriculture in the US is from fertilizer production and use.

13. Like oil and other natural resources, the rate of production of economically available phosphate reserves will eventually peak, followed by a steep decline and subsequent ongoing decline of EPR*. Based on industry data, this global peak P is expected to occur between 2040 and 2050.

14. The quality of phosphate rock is declining for two reasons: the concentration of P205 in mined P rock is decreasing; and the concentration of associated heavy metals like Cadmium are increasing.

15. The cost of mining phosphate rock is increasing due to decline in quality and greater expense of extraction, refinement and environmental management.

16. The Cadmium content of phosphate rock can be very high. This is either considered a harmful concentration for application in agriculture, or, expensive and energy intensive to remove (maximum concentrations for fertilizers exist in some regions, like Western Europe). 

17. Demand for biofuels has resulted in increasing demand for P rock as fertilizers, and increased runoff from short-rooted energy crops.


----------



## Black Range (26 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Evangeline Here's Yesterdays/ Monday 25th FEB. 8 Hour Intra Day Trading for MAK.

Last Traded: 25-02-2008
No. of Trades: 784
Volume: 3,424,851

Opening Price: 1.430
High Price: 1.610
Low Price: 1.380

Last Closing Price 25th Feb.Price: $1.55

Closing Buyer Depth:. $1.530 (1,047,798)
Closing Seller Depth: $1.550 (363,225)



6-month High: 1.610

5-day EMA: 1.172
10-day EMA: 1.028
15-day EMA: 0.928
30-day EMA: 0.745
Avg Volume: 2,179,793


Cheers from grant64 
.
.

25/02/2008 8 Hour Intra-Day Trading Chart from Mondays trading 10.00a.m. to 4.11p.m.. 

Green Line Displays Buyers, Orange Sellers Market Depth. Blue Line represents previous days close. All Data taken from http://www.turbotrader.net.au/


----------



## Sean K (26 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



cuttlefish said:


> Don't worry Kenna's I'm pretty thorough in my research - I've read about the RIO drill holes etc. plus all of the other stuff on this stock.  The harder one to predict is the sustainability of high rock phosphate prices and the other factor is that its simply a very long way away from being developed and there are plenty of stocks that are way undervalued vs in-ground value (even if using 1% of in-ground for market cap as the benchmark).



Sorry, assumed by what you said that you didn't realise that the deposit had been well defined and I think we can assume the previous work is valid. I think some even more upside can be found if the high grade outcrop to the SW (forgotten name at the minute) is found to have a decent tonnage. 

Yes, I know what you mean about IGV. IRC have trillions in the ground but their MC is about 40 cents.


----------



## cuttlefish (26 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yeah - I still always like to see drilling confirmation of historical results - but I feel comfortable there is highly likely to be a resource there of the size and grades indicated.  

tue 11:56 - has run up a fair bit again today and not much sign of supply coming in as yet - even the late morning spike hasn't drawn much additional supply so far - volume today also still well under a third of yesterday's volume and a third of the way through the trading day so far - the engine's still running so far today.


----------



## Evangeline (26 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The name of the (possibly) higher grade deposit...is Arawura (wouln't swear to the spelling lol!) and they have discovered 30% grades there much closer to the surface (less cost to mine).  It will be a priority with them to test this new target.


----------



## cuttlefish (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

well another strong showing so far today though you'd think the $2.00 mark would represent some sort of psychological barrier for some - but then again the $1.00 mark only generated a very brief breather.

It is at least a bit of a relief not to be watching this from the sidelines anymore.  It is quite surprising how much strength it has been showing. 

Anyone that bought a decent swag of options two month ago would be very happy indeed, it would have to be one of the sharpest and steepest rises in recent times particularly in a down market.


----------



## grace (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



cuttlefish said:


> well another strong showing so far today though you'd think the $2.00 mark would represent some sort of psychological barrier for some - but then again the $1.00 mark only generated a very brief breather.
> 
> It is at least a bit of a relief not to be watching this from the sidelines anymore.  It is quite surprising how much strength it has been showing.
> 
> Anyone that bought a decent swag of options two month ago would be very happy indeed, it would have to be one of the sharpest and steepest rises in recent times particularly in a down market.




Take a look at the graph now.  After the speeding ticket, the profits are being taken.  Wonder where it will retrace to...I'm still on the sidelines.  More sellers than buyers now, I think this would be a first for some time!


----------



## CapKapak (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Seems to be settling around the $1.75 mark. I tried to pick some up at $1.47 but it just moved off that mark too fast.


----------



## cuttlefish (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



> Take a look at the graph now. After the speeding ticket, the profits are being taken. Wonder where it will retrace to...I'm still on the sidelines. More sellers than buyers now, I think this would be a first for some time!




lol yeah  -  I added to my position yesterday and was feeling pretty good this morning but am out now with a small haircut instead.

I commend your fortitude on staying out of this.


----------



## grace (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



cuttlefish said:


> lol yeah  -  I added to my position yesterday and was feeling pretty good this morning but am out now with a small haircut instead.
> 
> I commend your fortitude on staying out of this.




Well, I hesitated too very early in the piece at 40cents.  I'm not very brave at all.  I would be taking profits now if I owned them though.  Hope to get in on the next run though.


----------



## Fed23 (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I was feeling over the moon when I returned from a meeting to check the SP at over $2.

I log back on it's at 1.60. I hate when I doubt myself because I said to myself would be a wish choice to get out at $2 with just over 70% profits.


----------



## Sean K (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Some time for some proper consolidation perhaps. The ann providing no news was probably a let down to most who have recently got on board and they sold the fact. More news is imminent which has been posted earlier. I'm happy with some consolidation around here, has plenty of room to move back to support.


----------



## grace (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Some time for some proper consolidation perhaps. The ann providing no news was probably a let down to most who have recently got on board and they sold the fact. More news is imminent which has been posted earlier. I'm happy with some consolidation around here, has plenty of room to move back to support.




Kennas, where do you see support?  I was initially hoping to buy at 70c but could $1 be support?  You might be horrified at my thoughts, but just asking for some TA, thanks.


----------



## Sean K (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> Kennas, where do you see support?  I was initially hoping to buy at 70c but could $1 be support?  You might be horrified at my thoughts, but just asking for some TA, thanks.



LOL. Yes, with such a rapid run 'solid' support is hard to find. It's actually sitting on some right now I think, albeit weak. The base of the last gap up can be classed as support at 1.55, then the last gap up at $1.39 and then around $1.20 ish. Let's hope for a nice even pole and penant forms from here with the base about 1.55, and an ascending triangle up to around 1.80. That's what my day dreaming crystal ball would like to see. However, I really have no idea where to next. May depend on any announcements forthcoming. That last candle is very ugly.


----------



## Evangeline (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

It would be quite a feat for mak to continue up for a little while as I think a lot of punters would be scared to enter atm.  Real panic selling today!


----------



## Captain_Chaza (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew

The top of the Trendline was confirmed @2.09 on the  Log chart today

At least we Now know what is install for us next

If we are ever to breach that previous best/high we will now have to go
into a "Ranging maneuvre" on an Easterly direction for a while IMO

[mak log.png]

Crikey! Did you see how those Gutless Landlubbers reacted to a simple Speeding Ticket everyone expected 
Anyone would think their World was about to end in the way they handled a simple speeding ticket

What a pack of Dunderheads!

"They just can't take the Pressure!"


Salute and Gods speed
[capn.gif]

PS I notice a few companies are now placing Fertilizer/ Potash and Phos. Rock on their Business cards

Wonders never cease!

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another
gate." 
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

PPS: 
Is this gate "Fertilizer"?
Personally, I can't afford to make many mistakes so therefore I'll stick with Fertilizer as my #1 Commodity ATM

What I like best is that the "Fertilizer Class of sail " have no Cartel at this stage
It's a bit like Catch and Kill


----------



## Evangeline (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey Chazza...where do you see that 'easterly direction' taking us in the short term...brave enough to make any predictions...or just a general sideways action?

BTW have you guys checked out Reward Minerals...seems to be slipstreaming mak....but its potash...


----------



## Captain_Chaza (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Evangeline said:


> Hey Chazza...where do you see that 'easterly direction' taking us in the short term...brave enough to make any predictions...or just a general sideways action?
> 
> BTW have you guys checked out Reward Minerals...seems to be slipstreaming mak....but its potash...




Fertilizer by any other name is still Fertilizer

There also POT in NY to watch if you like burning the midnight oil in NY 

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## meganut (27 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Captain_Chaza said:


> Fertilizer by any other name is still Fertilizer




Potash was one of our biggest selling fertilizers when I worked for CSBP in WA!
Strange it tasted just like pure salt...not that I ate much.


----------



## Sean K (29 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Once again, have to say surprising strength, but on lower volume. I'm sounding like a broken record, but there has to be some more decent consolidation at some point. What we have now is another pole and pennant forming, as we mentioned above with the target shown. Can't just keep doing this though, these formations are just probabilities.


----------



## sheepdip (29 February 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Agreed - a surprising amount of strength shown today. A massively strong finish this afternoon, even more so considering its a Friday. Went within 3c of a record high close. The run up has surprised, and now it looks like the retrace may be over before its really begun.

Its really hard to hazard a guess where this thing is going short term. If they really can get Wonarah up and running in 2010 the craziness will continue.


----------



## Sean K (3 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> What we have now is another pole and pennant forming, as we mentioned above with the target shown. Can't just keep doing this though, these formations are just probabilities.



All time high close, breaking up from the pennant, but volume not confirmation to me. On such a poor day, I'm shaking my head....happily


----------



## Captain_Chaza (3 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Steady as she goes!

This is no time to get the shakes!

Hold on tight!

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## jtb (3 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> All time high close, breaking up from the pennant, but volume not confirmation to me. On such a poor day, I'm shaking my head....happily




Thats one hell of a chart bro'.

I'm still seeing those MAKO's @ 25c ( won't mention the cheap ones) 

Well done.

mummy


----------



## Sean K (4 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Anyone have an opinion on why the options would have been consistantly trading at a discount since they were in the money. Today for example, there has been times when the 30c opies were at a 40c discount to the heads? Is this an opportunity to keep buying them a little cheaper, or an indication that the market thinks the stocks going to fall over?


----------



## ALFguy (4 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Anyone have an opinion on why the options would have been consistantly trading at a discount since they were in the money. Today for example, there has been times when the 30c opies were at a 40c discount to the heads? Is this an opportunity to keep buying them a little cheaper, or an indication that the market thinks the stocks going to fall over?




I suppose the leverage is not that great so buyers take the heads instead.
Big gaps in the options so buyers only come in when the heads are moving up.


----------



## BigJohnny (4 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Anyone have an opinion on why the options would have been consistantly trading at a discount since they were in the money. Today for example, there has been times when the 30c opies were at a 40c discount to the heads? Is this an opportunity to keep buying them a little cheaper, or an indication that the market thinks the stocks going to fall over?




This would be every trader's dream. Free money to be picked up from the floor. Using the closing prices MAK 1.845 and MAKO 1.495, you would be saying you can buy MAKO @ 1.495 and then convert these for 0.30c, meaning you just bought the heads MAK @ 1.795. If MAK stayed above 1.845 until you received the shares in CHESS, you would sell your converted MAK shs and lock in at least 5c profit. If the options were trading 0.40c lower than the heads, then you could attempt to lock in 10c profit. Now you run the risk of the heads trading below 1.795 in the time between submitting conversion form & cheque and delivery of shares into your CHESS account. Also if you were a very long-term holder like cornerstone investors or directors and already had some heads, you could sell the heads & buy the options and convert the options back to heads. This would be effective way to bring your vwap down in the long run.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (4 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I honestly don't think anyone in this stock is about to play tiggy

Do You?

For what it's worth

I also think the Options are too rare to make any realistic judgement "Of The Whole"


Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Fed23 (6 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Has been placed in a trading halt till monday for captial raising?

Could do this be a good or a bad thing? FDL did the same and it's dropped in value as a result.


----------



## prawn_86 (6 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Fed23 said:


> Could do this be a good or a bad thing? FDL did the same and it's dropped in value as a result.




Fed,

Generally a public capital raising will create a floor price and the market price will fall to that price.

Lately however, lots of companies have been falling below the actual price the raising is issued at.

Also if the raising is only for 'sophisticated' investors, then the price can still drop due to some of them stagging a profit.

Hope this helps


----------



## Fed23 (6 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks prawn, It does help alot. But how do they calculate, does MAK just say it or they take an market average


----------



## prawn_86 (6 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

It varies from situation to situation.

Generally the company will take an average of the last X trading days and then offer at a discount to that.

Im not 100% sure but i think i heard somewhere that the maximum discount is 5%, although im thinking that is for Share Purchase Plans not capital raisings.

So in other words, im fairly certain it is set by the co at a discount to the recent average price.

I would suggest they wouldnt go back too far for this average though as it would bring the price down 

EDIT - anyone out there feel free to correct me if im wrong


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This looks to be a capital raising to institutions. Not sure if the public will have a go at this.

IMO this is a very smart move by management. They actually don't look to need the money in the short term. They only completed a capital raising late last year... This is perhaps to fast track Wonarah, but they could have done the raising in a few months after the JORC was revised.

What this is IMO is an opportunity to strike while the irons hot and get some significant cash while the market is interested in their now No 1 project. Rock Phos is flying, Agri is flying, The MC is flying, Instituations have probably started buying, debt is getting more expensive, investors are taking fewer and fewer risks....this was the time to ask for a few mil to take Wonarah through BFS perhaps? 

Short term, depending on the terms, this could spell a time for consolidation for MAK. When you look at the 'normal' chart cycle of a company taking a project to development, this is the lull. We may be working into No 4 right now, but too early to tell and speculative of course..


----------



## grace (6 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gosh I'm not sure if my last post was removed, or I didn't post it correctly.

What it said was

Word out on the street is that the raising is $1.50.  Brokers and clients would already be privy to this information.   I guess we'll know by Monday (at least it is not going to take 9 days like MON to raise money it seems).  Agree with Kennas, great time to raise money with the run in share price - less dilution for you all!

Still don't hold but I'm hoping for a little weakness with cap raising.  Time will tell.


----------



## phong_01 (7 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

If MAK is attractive to institutional investors then it would be safer for our investment.  Imagine if there will be good result on the phosphate drilling, the price won't just stop at $2.  At least we have RIO drilled there with good result.  With the RIO drill result before, the project would be feasible.  Hopefully there will be more upside from the current drilling.


----------



## eieio (9 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Minemakers is in charting limbo just at the moment. However, the current fundamentals should carry it higher over the next few weeks imo

jmo dyor


----------



## Evangeline (11 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hammered today....along with the whole materials index...hope she holds $1.50...and the new shares haven't even been issued yet


----------



## Sean K (12 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes, would be nice if $1.50 is a floor based on the placement, but I've seen plenty of companies trade under a placement level. Some dramatically. This has probably been due to general market conditions I think however. US market's having agreat night so maybe some recovery tomorrow. 

As suspected this ia a placement to institutional holders at what looks like a pretty good price to me and will be primarily for Wonarah feasability. 



> Minemakers’ Managing Director, Andrew Drummond, said:
> 
> “The Board of Directors is pleased with the share placement for several
> reasons, including:
> ...




I thought they might try to raise more so they'll definately need another raising to take it through BFS. 

On another note IPL having a go at Dyno Noble won't be good for any short term takeover or buy in from IPL of MAK. I has hoping some of the recent action was someone like IPL wich would have created a great deal of more interest. Not to say it definately hasn't but it seems they are preoccupied with Dyno...


----------



## Sean K (12 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This has to be good for the long term outlook of MAK.

In the Australian today.



> *Warning of world phosphate shortage*
> Matthew Warren, Environment writer | March 12, 2008
> 
> THE exponential growth in global food production has not only sent the price of fertilisers skyrocketing, but could lead to a world shortage of phosphate within decades.
> ...




Dwindiling supplies by 2040, should support the prices you'd imagine, indicating that the economics of Wonarah, economical at $100 a ton, should underpin the company for many years.


----------



## blehgg (12 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Can anyone explain the sudden drop this afternoon??

Is something happening? down to 1.39 .....  nearly 10%


----------



## Fed23 (12 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

End of day price was $1.35.. crap I should of sold out yesterday. I thought it would of recovered today with the market going up. Does anyone know when they will be making the next announcement?


----------



## Sean K (12 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I can't see any reason for the fall accept profit takers worried about losing gains. 

This is a long term story IMO. From what we've seen Wonarah will underpin this company for some time. The basic figures have all been crunched, we just need to wait for the feasability studies for confirmation, and while Rock Phos holds well above $200 and the outlook very solid, where's to fault with MC still undemanding for such potential profits. 

Next news? Maybe metalurgical studies on Moina, or aeromagnetics on Franklin.


----------



## Sean K (14 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Next news is Wonarah drilling approvals.....



> *WONARAH DRILLING APPROVALS SECURED
> DRILLING TO BEGIN ON SCH*EDULE
> 14 March 2008
> 
> ...



I'm interested in the comments about traditional owners. Conscious of the problems RWD have run into, which will be one of the risks here. Hopefully the local owners will negotiate reasonably once the final negotiations for mining are undertaken.

Would be nice if the sp stabilises with this news and consolidates a bit.


----------



## Wilson! (14 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

That is good news kennas, noticed that this morning ansd thanks for posting it. 
The technical selloff this week was a shame, so as you said, I am hoping for a stabilising now, and possibly a return to the placement level would be nice. 

A rocky week it's been, as I've stuck in there.


----------



## Sean K (14 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Wilson! said:


> That is good news kennas, noticed that this morning ansd thanks for posting it.
> The technical selloff this week was a shame, so as you said, I am hoping for a stabilising now, and possibly a return to the placement level would be nice.
> 
> A rocky week it's been, as I've stuck in there.



Hi Willo, the other aspect that I'm interested in is the priority drilling of the Arrawurra Prospect. The prospect is economical how it is with half the current RP price but if they come back with some great grades down there then it should be excellent news for the immediate prosperity of the overall project. 

Personally I'm well free carried so I feel less pain when the sp goes down, but it's still money!  

I'm not sure what will drive me to top up from here. I suppose technically when it starts making higher highs and lows.


----------



## meganut (14 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Next news is Wonarah drilling approvals.....
> 
> I'm interested in the comments about traditional owners. Conscious of the problems RWD have run into, which will be one of the risks here. Hopefully the local owners will negotiate reasonably once the final negotiations for mining are undertaken.
> 
> Would be nice if the sp stabilises with this news and consolidates a bit.




I've never known the Territory black fellas to let any mining get in the way of reaping some royalties...and before all you do gooders get on my back about the black fellas comment, it is not considered by them as a derogitory remark, I know because I live and work with them every day.


----------



## Sean K (14 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



meganut said:


> I've never known the Territory black fellas to let any mining get in the way of reaping some royalties...and before all you do gooders get on my back about the black fellas comment, it is not considered by them as a derogitory remark, I know because I live and work with them every day.



Except for Jabiluka perhaps. I can't work out why Ranger was approved and not the second mine. Perhaps when they realise the royalties will stop?


----------



## Sean K (17 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm not sure why this is price sensitive as the price of RP can be found in other places.

However, awesome for MAK. Problem is that it will get to a point where it's uneconomical for farmers to use....and we will have a price correction. Or, we just wont be able to afford bread! 



> *ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
> 
> FURTHER STRONG INCREASES IN ROCK PHOSPHATE PRICES MINEMAKERS’ WORK PROGRAMMES ARE ON SCHEDULE*
> 17 March 2008
> ...




Wonarah economical at $100 a ton...

MAK up about 30%.


----------



## Sean K (24 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Some healthy consolidation going on now IMO, well needed. Went too hard too fast and attracted too many short term traders. Wonarah drill to commence at the start of April should maintain interest. Let's just hope there's a quick turn around in assays and they are along the lines of historic results, or better.

With Rock Phos at over $300tn, and Wonarah opex around $100tn, profit $200tn and likely to produce between 2-3 Mt a year = $400-500m profit. Current MC $150m.... Obviously, BIG assumption RP will stay high, and opex low. 

I'm disappointed we haven't had news from the fe targets at Franklin after the aeromagnetics. Makes me assume they are poor. Also, the metalurgical test work from Moina is well overdue I think. I was expecting both these results in early March. I think they were due this quarter, so they've got a few days left I suppose. 

Technically, I'm looking for a higher low now for some more confidence. Hopefully $1.25 was the bottom, but who knows in this crazy bear environment.


----------



## grace (24 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The price rises of rock phosphate have to be worrying farmers.  We received a quote by text a couple of weeks ago of $1200 tonne ex Newcastle.  Now we thought that was rediculous.  That was before the rise above $200/tonne will flow through.   

Just my opinion, but I do not think IPL will be able to pass on the same margins as usual.  Farmers just can not afford to pay even more than current prices!  As I have said before, we would not buy at $1200, let alone higher, which will come.

Some correction is needed.  Demand will drop that is for certain.

Still think MAK is a good investment, although I haven't jumped aboard just yet.

Heard Andrew Drummond on ABC Country Hour (radio) last Wednesday chatting about the windfall gain Wonorah would be for NT government as well as people.  Jobs, education, services etc....   He was very positive.


----------



## Adam A (24 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gday grace                                                                                            just a quick question, what happens if you dont buy for your farm, does that mean that you wont plant as much as usual? How would farmers cope by not using fertilizer, Can your costs be passed on?                                             Thanks in advance                                                                            PS I ask these questions as i myself own MAK shares and the story sounds to good to be true (and we know how that ends)


----------



## champ2003 (24 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> The price rises of rock phosphate have to be worrying farmers.  We received a quote by text a couple of weeks ago of $1200 tonne ex Newcastle.  Now we thought that was rediculous.  That was before the rise above $200/tonne will flow through.
> 
> Just my opinion, but I do not think IPL will be able to pass on the same margins as usual.  Farmers just can not afford to pay even more than current prices!  As I have said before, we would not buy at $1200, let alone higher, which will come.
> 
> ...




Grace you are talking about DAP here not the price of rock phosphate which is what MAK will be selling, unless there has been an emormous rise in the last 2 weeks rock phosphate is selling for $350 - $400. 

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## champ2003 (24 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Some healthy consolidation going on now IMO, well needed. Went too hard too fast and attracted too many short term traders. Wonarah drill to commence at the start of April should maintain interest. Let's just hope there's a quick turn around in assays and they are along the lines of historic results, or better.
> 
> With Rock Phos at over $300tn, and Wonarah opex around $100tn, profit $200tn and likely to produce between 2-3 Mt a year = $400-500m profit. Current MC $150m.... Obviously, BIG assumption RP will stay high, and opex low.
> 
> ...




Kennas,

According to MAK's company presentation in Jan 08 they state that the metalurgical testwork for Moina will be completed in Mid May so we have a while to wait for that yet.

I think that you are talking about Frankland for the iron ore project aren't you(not Franklin?) They still need to drill the hot spots subject to rig availability.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Sean K (25 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Kennas,
> 
> According to MAK's company presentation in Jan 08 they state that the metalurgical testwork for Moina will be completed in Mid May so we have a while to wait for that yet.
> 
> ...



Champ, thanks for the corrections. I was sure I saw something last year that said Moina was due early 08. Obviously missed that in the Jan pres. Just checking and their Dec pres said a resource estimate on Moina was planned for the 1st Qtr 08. Not sure if the delay in the metalergical test work will delay the resource update. 

IRT Franklin, I was actually referring to Fraser Iron Ore, which includes West Southdown and Frankland River. Just got the name wrong.  My understanding is that they were going to announce the aeromagnetic results and drilling plan when the aeromagnetics had been evaluated and plan devised. I'm expecting that before they start drilling. It was supposed to be done in Jan-Feb, as per their Jan pres. 

The other ann should be the Tasmanian Gov aeromagnetics over NE Tassie, over the Castle Carey and TUU area, in search of Uranium targets...

Obviously still waiting on confirmation of Tungstan assays at Storey's Ck, and whether the Wolf Gang are going to proceed to full JV over the MOU.  

Still plenty of news to come (hopefully good) to prov support in these bearish times...


----------



## grace (25 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Grace you are talking about DAP here not the price of rock phosphate which is what MAK will be selling, unless there has been an emormous rise in the last 2 weeks rock phosphate is selling for $350 - $400.
> 
> Cheers!
> 
> Champ




Sorry, my first few lines was a bit misleading.  I was talking about retail prices to farmers at $1200/tonne, not the price of rock phosphate.


----------



## Fed23 (25 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Can anyone give explaination why MAK was down today even thou the market was up?

Is it just profit takers selling? Or buyers that bought in at the high selling out?


----------



## champ2003 (25 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Champ, thanks for the corrections. I was sure I saw something last year that said Moina was due early 08. Obviously missed that in the Jan pres. Just checking and their Dec pres said a resource estimate on Moina was planned for the 1st Qtr 08. Not sure if the delay in the metalergical test work will delay the resource update.
> 
> IRT Franklin, I was actually referring to Fraser Iron Ore, which includes West Southdown and Frankland River. Just got the name wrong.  My understanding is that they were going to announce the aeromagnetic results and drilling plan when the aeromagnetics had been evaluated and plan devised. I'm expecting that before they start drilling. It was supposed to be done in Jan-Feb, as per their Jan pres.
> 
> ...




Kennas,

I definately agree in that there must be alot of announcements coming up soon. PLenty of things to excite the market over i'm sure. In regards to Moina i was just going off their Jan presentation project time table for Moina. Maybe they delayed it somewhat? Anyway it will be very interesting to see what infolds in the coming weeks.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Fed23 said:


> Can anyone give explaination why MAK was down today even thou the market was up?
> 
> Is it just profit takers selling? Or buyers that bought in at the high selling out?



Against the trend with IPL up 8% too. Even RWD was up 6%. 

The market over and undershoots, and I think MAK overshot a bit. Rising from 20c to 2 bucks in a month or so's a bit steep, as had been commentated on. More consolidation I feel. 

As I mentioned above I'm looking for support around $1.25 to keep me happy, more consolidation, and at sometime soon, some higher lows and highs to start a new uptrend. 

Having said that, I think there's still some skeletons in the credit closset waiting to scare the bear.


----------



## Evangeline (26 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Ann just out.......AMP is now a substantial shareholder with 5% of the stock.  Hmmmm....whaddya know...I posted about that a couple of weeks ago....but my post was pulled...

Good news as the stock is going to stronger hands...less volatility.  Anyone listen to the new BRR radio interview with AD today?  A billion dollars in revenue per year if the RP price holds up and to all accounts it will for the next few years.

IPL presentation out today too.....check the section relating to their forecast for rock phosphate for the next couple of years....quite bullish to remain over $200 a ton in any case.


----------



## Sean K (27 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Great ramp from the MD, on Boardroom Radio yesterday saying that Wonarah could be producing cash flow of $1b a year when into production in just a couple of years time. Current MC is about $155m fully diluted.  Sure there's going to be dilution for BFS and capex, but golly, if RP stays solid, which it's forecast to....


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bit of a pennant forming here, looks likely to break up at this stage, but I think needs to break $1.75 for confirmation.


----------



## Rockety (29 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

yeh thought the same as you Kennas, targeted entry price is at 1.8 with 1,5 as stop loss lvl. any idea when is the wonarah update due to come ?


----------



## Rockety (31 March 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

neat, couldnt resist the urge to jump in sooner, bought some at 1,72  wasnt a bad call :d hope it does a nice little correction though


----------



## jradical (1 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi All,

Bought MAK at $1.54 under two weeks ago at a pullback and it is currently trading at around $2.20.  How much do you guys think this has left to run?


----------



## Fed23 (1 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Im pissed I sold mine early this morning thinking it would pull back as soon as it passed the $2 mark.

Im seating on the side line now as I dont know if it will retract in the coming week


----------



## Sean K (1 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jradical said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Bought MAK at $1.54 under two weeks ago at a pullback and it is currently trading at around $2.20.  How much do you guys think this has left to run?



This is still an exploration company. Picking how far it has to run, or whatever, is fraught with danger and only encourages ramping.

Since you bought it at $1.54, what price did you think it was worth, or would be worth in the future? 

Personally, I have only a limited idea of how to evaluate MAK on their prospective projects. What I can say is that if RP prices stay anywhere over $200/t in the coming few years, then MAK based just on Wonarah, should have a MC a little higher than it's present position, as has been discussed in the thread. How high? Too many factors to assume and best guess IMO.

I initially bought this for it's fe and sn potential.


----------



## blehgg (1 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> This is still an exploration company. Picking how far it has to run, or whatever, is fraught with danger and only encourages ramping.
> 
> Since you bought it at $1.54, what price did you think it was worth, or would be worth in the future?




I thought there would be a wall at 1.70 and hope out.... obviously I was wrong, but the past months have been a bit of a rollarcoaster and I'm happy I took some profits after buyin in at 1.80 and seeing it drop to 1.35.... Glad I topped up

If everyone could pick the peaks then there would be 0% risk


----------



## Sean K (1 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blehgg said:


> If everyone could pick the peaks then there would be 0% risk



Yes, and the troughs as well. I looked at it very hard when it corrected back to $1.25 and wanted to top up a few but the credit bear scared me off. Getting harder and harder for new investors to take a punt here, IMO. It's just run so hard....hmmmm, been saying that since 30c.


----------



## champ2003 (1 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> This is still an exploration company. Picking how far it has to run, or whatever, is fraught with danger and only encourages ramping.
> 
> Since you bought it at $1.54, what price did you think it was worth, or would be worth in the future?
> 
> ...




Kennas,

You shock me. You say that the market cap should be just a little higher implying a little higher than a 200 million market cap? To a newcomer that can sound a little misleading and can turn that person away without realising MAK's true potential as the market cap will be a heck of a lot higher than the current market cap in less than 2 years time for when production begins. There has been alot of discussion regarding this on other sites as you well and truly know and it is highly feasible that MAK will have a maket cap of well over 2 billion within 2 years and there has been educated dicussion about the share price going as high as $80+ dollars. This isn't a ramp but is just based on many factors that you would already know about. I'd be happy with a share price between $20-$30 however according to the pure economics of Wonarah alone it is highly likely that the figures will be substantially higher.

All the best

Champ


----------



## jradical (1 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



> Originally Posted by kennas
> Getting harder and harder for new investors to take a punt here, IMO.




I hear you on this one kennas.  As a new investor it is hard to pick a stock that is worth taking as per my limited knowledge in this bearish market.


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Kennas,
> 
> You shock me. You say that the market cap should be just a little higher implying a little higher than a 200 million market cap? To a newcomer that can sound a little misleading and can turn that person away without realising MAK's true potential as the market cap will be a heck of a lot higher than the current market cap in less than 2 years time for when production begins. There has been alot of discussion regarding this on other sites as you well and truly know and it is highly feasible that MAK will have a maket cap of well over 2 billion within 2 years and there has been educated dicussion about the share price going as high as $80+ dollars. This isn't a ramp but is just based on many factors that you would already know about. I'd be happy with a share price between $20-$30 however according to the pure economics of Wonarah alone it is highly likely that the figures will be substantially higher.
> 
> ...



Hi Champ, Haven't been called 'shocking' for a while. Cheers. 

Yes, I too have seen those 'fundamental' valuations, based on a number of assumptions which may, or may not be correct. The only thing I am comfortable saying is that Wonarah could make MAK much more valuable if it gets into production at the current RP prices. (see my comments about the $1b cashflow and inferrence to the MC) However, I recently saw a long term RP forecast by UBS (I think) that had it at $65. *Please correct me if this is wrong, or you have another long term price.* Any other long term plucks, have been just plucks. I don't think AD has even put a price on it has he? Just that it will stay 'high' or something equally as vague. 

I am not being pessimistic Champ, just trying to remain calm. You've obviously been following the thread, you may have found me to be supporting this stock for some time. 

If you can find those $80 fundamental valuations, happy for you to post them up here.

Cheers, kennas


PS, By a 'little higher' I was also been a bit tongue in cheek. Thought you may have guessed that due to my interest in the company.


----------



## Evangeline (2 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Scientists are worried that our reserves of phosphorus will be depleted in 50 to 100 years if we do not start recycling (urine/waste) and using it in a more sustainable way.  Phosphorus is essential in plant growth and hence food.  Dana Cordell from the Institute of Sustainable Futures at UTS Sydney has written a very interesting thesis (google her + phosphorus).  From a powerpoint at UTS:

You’ve heard of peak oil - meet peak P
> P (phosphorus) is essential for all life
> 90% of P demand is for food production
> key to food production, and therefore growth of society
> Projected use up 50% by 2025, up 100% by 2050
> Non-renewable! No substitute!
> At current rates, reserves depleted in 50-100yrs

This is actually a real worry to world food security.  Note that projected use is growing dramatically...

I think that projection of RP prices going back to $65 a ton may be wishful thinking.


----------



## grace (2 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Who knows where the share price is going...but I see MAKO on the Opes list so I'll be hanging out for them to come on sale....hope they have heaps!


----------



## champ2003 (2 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> Who knows where the share price is going...but I see MAKO on the Opes list so I'll be hanging out for them to come on sale....hope they have heaps!




Hi Grace,

Apparently the Oppies were sold yesterday and were munched up by the market and no real negative effect took place. ANZ weren't major shareholders so probably didn't have that many options to sell. Even a couple of million would have been gone within a few hours. 

All the best

Champ


----------



## champ2003 (2 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Hi Champ, Haven't been called 'shocking' for a while. Cheers.
> 
> Yes, I too have seen those 'fundamental' valuations, based on a number of assumptions which may, or may not be correct. The only thing I am comfortable saying is that Wonarah could make MAK much more valuable if it gets into production at the current RP prices. (see my comments about the $1b cashflow and inferrence to the MC) However, I recently saw a long term RP forecast by UBS (I think) that had it at $65. *Please correct me if this is wrong, or you have another long term price.* Any other long term plucks, have been just plucks. I don't think AD has even put a price on it has he? Just that it will stay 'high' or something equally as vague.
> 
> ...




Hi Kennas,

No real need for me to post any fundamental analysis in relation to MAK hitting $80 as that wasn't my target. I'll be happy with $20-$30 but i somehow think that it is going to go so much higher. 

As for the long term price of phosphate. They have been saying the same thing about oil for years. When oil was at $70 they were talking about oil plummeting back down to the 20's again. Of course it never happened though. Same goes with phosphate IMO.

MAK is so much more than just phosphate so when you consider the upside potential with all of their other major projects the mind boggles. This also reduces the risk factor for MAK as it isn't a 1 project company and actually has multiple projects running. The other thing to consider is if the price of phosphate drops down after lets say 3-4 years MAK would have made so much money that they will be able to take over other companies if they choose( Another risk reducing factor) 

All the best 

Champ


----------



## Evangeline (2 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

It's probably a good idea to keep an eye on the fertilizer report..DAP prices are still rising even from last week....and RP is a major component.  If you go to the website just click on The Market and it will take you to downloadable reports:

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html


----------



## Sean K (4 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Must be an ann out shortly on the commencement of drilling. Odd that we haven't had news from any of the other projects for some time. I suppose their priority is on Wonarah now while RP is hot.

Chart wise the target from the break up from that triangle/pennant was reached. (nice retrospective analysis kennas ), and with my crystal ball I see another forming somewhere between the blue lines, and then hopefully a continuation of the uptrend. If it does form, then the target may be the length of the pole, which is some target. Pure speculation of course, we need to wait and see how it pans out. Would be nice though.


----------



## Sean K (4 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Talk of fertiliser prices about the place.

No forecast, but peak of earnings in 2 years time. Should support the current explorers/developers for a while then. 



> *Fertilizer stocks to see continued upward momentum - Merrill Lynch*
> Thursday, April 03, 2008; Posted: 01:03 PM
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Sean K (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Quarterly out and has a great summary of the quarter past and the work programs for the June quarter. Lots of news to come, hopefully they can maintain the momentum.

Of interest to me is that the Fraser Iron Project is classed as 'non core'. What the?? I bought this for the fe?? LOL 

The Moina resource update was due this quarter. Either the labs are busy, or they've been too busy with Wonarah...They say in the ann that 'interim results are expected shortly'...

And the Fraser drilling plan and Tassie radiometrics were due this quarter too.

Hard to complain with the sp appreciation this quarter gone....



> *HIGHLIGHTS*
> 
> WONARAH PHOSPHATE PROJECT
> • Rock phosphate price is currently 7-8 times greater than it was a year ago.
> ...


----------



## adamim1 (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This was on my watch list for a while. I was watching it at 28c, now i se its at 2.50. I'm kicking myself.

Is it still worthwhile to invest in MAK at the moment? Or has the train already left?


----------



## grace (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> This was on my watch list for a while. I was watching it at 28c, now i se its at 2.50. I'm kicking myself.
> 
> Is it still worthwhile to invest in MAK at the moment? Or has the train already left?




I would also love to hear an answer to this.  Have been watching the options since 5cents.  Just didn't think that sought of rise was possible...
Risk with Wonorah - a drop in the price of rock phosphate - it has gone to rediculous levels!


----------



## Markcoinoz (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi people,

This is a site that has pricing and history of fertilizers.

http://www.fertilizer-index.com/

Kennas, i like your avatar as well.

Good taste

I was pretty happy with the Quarterly.

The most important aspect is going forward.

From my perspective i thought the Arruwarra Prospect appears to be the most encouraging.

This is a snippet of what i put on another forum.

Arruwarra prospect.

Drilling as a priority
Potential near surface deposit
More economical
Possibility of DSO
Could defer construction of main processing plant
RC drilling in April

That to me was the obvious highlight.

If they are going to be bringing any of the Wonarah project forward to capture some of the market, then go for it.

Apart from the obvious bringing in immediate cashflow, there is every likelihood of securing further long term contracts as the main processing plant is being constructed.

IMO, that would place MAK in the best position possible.


Grace & Adamim1,

I entered the scene a bit late.
Will be a longer term holder rather than short term.

Therefore it doesn't bother me much to see the gyrations of MAK like today.
Daytraders might play it for a while and then move on.  Thats the time to accumulate and sit tight imo.  The D/T who don't have short term memory loss will be back

IMO, the price of Fertilizer will take care of itself.

The most important aspect that many investors tend to brush over is of course Management.  Does management have what it takes to move it from being a S/C stock to a big one?  I think they do.

What made Twiggy turn FMG into a multi billion dollar company?
I would suggest a few things.

1) He had a vision  of where he was to where he wanted to be.
2) He positioned himself to be in the right place at the right time.
3) He used FMG as the vehicle and signed the deals along the way.
4) No production and yet he was able to clinch the deals.
5) He met each one of his objectives along the FMG timeline.

Number 5 is very important as it shows his credibility to make things happen.
Instos and Dealmakers love that.
IMO, FMG has nothing special in the way of Fe.
However, he was able to stitch up the deals.

Back to MAK.

If we have to wait till after the processing plant is constructed before anything happens i would be very concerned.  However, the fact that management recognizes the window of opportunity now and not tomorrow by speeding up the Arruwarra Prospect for potential DSO shows to me that they think outside the square.  They want to get it happening quickly.

IMO, this will lead to early contracts being signed which will move the shareprice north.  As well, once the processing plant has finally been built it would pave the way for other longer term commissions.

The goal is to beat everyone else.
Thats where FMG excelled.

This is why i would prefer to sit on a company like this over the next 12 months and just see how good they are at meeting deadlines and moving forward.  If they prove to be a great management team then why shouldn't we expect a high S/P.  Afterall, there is a window of opportunity staring them in the face with great assets.  No excuses in my book.

Equally, the reverse can happen if time lines are not met.
No good having great assets and tunnel vision management.

Management is tops in my book.


Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## grace (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks Markcoinoz.  After todays move, I think we could be in for a little reversal in price.  I am a little frightened about the price of rock coming off (ramping on another forum seems so related to Wonorah and not too much else!)
I would have preferred to buy in once the price of rock phosphate has stablilised.  I suspect it might cool down after going 7x.  After all, what other commodity has gone 7x in such a short time?  That is the real risk to the stability of the share price I believe.


----------



## grace (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Does anyone know the MC fully diluted at current prices.
My online broker says $134 million (not diluted though).  
Per presentation the other day
at $1.50 = $163mill fully diluted

So does this mean sp $2.30 = $250 mc?


----------



## Markcoinoz (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Grace,

The Arruwarra prospect is still part of the Wonarah project.

So far the outcrops already drilled show >30%.
Reference of the Arruwarra prospect is shown in Figure 4 of the Report.

I don't know where Phosphate is heading in price especially from a week to week view except to know that there is currently becoming fairly clear that Rock Phosphate is in great demand.  I think just like any other commodity it will hit a peak where farmers are no longer prepared to pay such a high price.
Farmers so far have had the luxury of passing on the cost rather than being squeezed as the pricetaker.

The underlying question is what other alternative do they have?

Nothing wrong with taking some profit of the table if you are unsure.

Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## grace (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Markcoinoz said:


> Hi Grace,
> 
> I think just like any other commodity it will hit a peak where farmers are no longer prepared to pay such a high price.
> Farmers so far have had the luxury of passing on the cost rather than being squeezed as the pricetaker.
> ...




Not sure if I agree with you about the "luxury of passing on" bit in the past.  If you adjust for cpi, the price we are getting for wheat is about half of the long term average (even with the recent spikes).  We are farmers.

I could write an enclyopedia on this for you, but this thread is about minemakers.  I don't own any of these yet, but I appreciate your comments on minemakers.


----------



## kransky (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

fully diluted there are 106M shares or options...

so a stock price of 2.43 gives a market cap of $257M


----------



## Captain_Chaza (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I heard from my taxi driver that he heard that there is only ~10 weeks supply of wheat left in the world 

Crikey!
What ever happened to the Good Old Fashioned idea of having wheat etc stored in silos for a rainy day?

I decided to buy 2 loaves of bread today and freeze 1

BTW I used to grow a few plants under lights in my wardrobe in the 60's -90's as we all did in those days
and I was always amazed with  the reception these plants gave to a little bit of Fertilizer

It was MAGIC 


Safety at Sea is Parramount

Salute and Gods' speed
DYOR


----------



## Sean K (8 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

So, MC now up to $257m.

The Wonarah scoping study completed last year had the project economic with RP at $100 tn. It's now around $350.

Here are the scoping study parameters from MAK:



> *EARLY FINANCIAL PARAMETERS*:
> 1. FROM 2/07 INDEPENDENT STUDY
> OPEX <AU$100/t
> CAPEX AU$18M
> ...




Potential cash flow of $1b/yr within 2 years, and the current MC is $257m. 

The big assumption remains that RP prices stay well above the projected opex of somewhere under $100/t for it to be economical. To be conservative I'd like to assume RP comes back to $150 in the near future, which gives them a margin of +$50/t * 2-3Mtpa = $100-150m profit a year. Give them a pe of 10 at it gives an indicative MC of $1 -1.5b. Currently $257, then add in the dilution for the capex.

Pretty general way of looking at it, but clearly has some room to move, as long as RP doesn't implode.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Captain_Chaza said:


> BTW I used to grow a few plants under lights in my wardrobe in the 60's -90's as we all did in those days
> and I was always amazed with  the reception these plants gave to a little bit of Fertilizer
> 
> It was MAGIC




lol and exactly what kind of plants were these my friend? Sounds a little dodgey to me lol 

From what I gather you were growing Marajuana in your house and every so often taking a dump on your crop to fertilize it :

These POO brigades are vital to the agricultural industry which is vital for food which is vital for survival so yeah its pretty safe to say they will come into focus given the every growing population


----------



## Evangeline (9 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi all

Did you read this part in the Quarterly?

"The other known area of interest to date is the Arruwurra Prospect, 15kms from the Main Zone. Outcrop grades at that location already attain over 30% and this area will be drilled as a matter of priority to determine the potential for a near-surface deposit, which could be developed more economically than the Main Zone due to a lower waste stripping ratio, and the possibility of it being direct shipping ore which might mean that the Company could defer construction of a processing plant until subsequent development of the Main Zone."

Could mean very little debt or dilution is necessary if they can get some cash flow from Arruwurra first with no processing plant...could also speed up time to production...


----------



## ormond (9 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Just wondering if anyone has worked out the logistics of transporting 2-3 
million tonnes of RP by road to tennent creek.It seems like an awfull lot of 
truckloads of RP working on the assumption of 100-120 tonnes per truckload.
What would the cost of a rail line or a slurry pipeline be?


----------



## Dezza (9 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This post was courtesy of another forum. It might help answer your question...

"Here's a reply from AD regarding trucking the 2million tonnes to Tennant Creek ..........

"Thanks for the query. All early days of course, but you have probably seen that we have now appointed independent study managers. Minemakers preliminary trucking enquiries indicate that a prime mover and multiple trailers in a road train should be able to take 100 t per trip. It is the ability to move tonnage that is capping our current thinking of 2-3Mt annual capacity limit.

As we have advised other shareholders, an alternative is to consider a rail link as that would remove that tonnage limitation, but that is a very high capital route and the Company is going for a low capital development. If someone (?government) wants to build a Tennant Creek/ Mt Isa rail link one day, we would probably prefer to use it as it should lower operating costs but it is all talk beyond Minemakers at present."

Perhaps looking to contract out the transporting might be better off than building...or maybe their neighbours IPL can build one for them?! :


----------



## grace (10 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Dezza said:


> Perhaps looking to contract out the transporting might be better off than building...or maybe their neighbours IPL can build one for them?! :




Why wouldn't IPL just ramp up their own mining if they wanted more rock?  Production at phosphate hill is currently 970 000 tonnes pa and I believe this accounts for 70% of their current use.  IPL are also now importing from Nauru who will now produce 500 000 tonnes for the next 15 years.  Here is the link to abc landline story on it several weeks back.  Looks like IPL have secured all of their needs for some time.  

http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s2176130.htm


I also see Morocco is ramping up production.  Morocco is the worlds  largest producer of rock phosphate with 29 million tonne produced annually.  Of this 45 - 50 % is exported.

http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=36923

There is plenty of room to increase supply around the world.  Westfarmers are also sitting on a nice deposit on lynas ground.  Also there are some deposits around Mt Isa with better infrastructure than NT.


----------



## Sean K (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> with my crystal ball I see another forming somewhere between the blue lines, and then hopefully a continuation of the uptrend. If it does form, then the target may be the length of the pole, which is some target. Pure speculation of course, we need to wait and see how it pans out. Would be nice though.



That pennant/flag is starting to take shape, but who's to say where it goes from here. Would like to see some support being formed above $2.00 to maintain the upward trend.

Another good ann on any of the imminent events might be required to send focus back on to it.  

Charts 4 Apr and 12 Apr.


----------



## Evangeline (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi all

The latest Fertreport is out....with DAP going over $1200 a ton....China has now imposed a 100% export tax...always watch out for this weekly report now...I have posted the link earlier

Also Andrew Drummond will be interviewed Monday around midday on Boardroom Radio...presentation entitled "Australia's Shining Conference"...interesting....could mean that there will be an announcement to the asx in the morning that he is clarifying with this interview.

AD is always impressive in his interviews


----------



## Evangeline (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Having said this, I took some profits off the table while the sp was around $2.50 and I am now free carried with the bulk of my shares...certainly gives a feeling of security lol


----------



## Captain_Chaza (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Evangeline said:


> Hi all
> 
> The latest Fertreport is out....with DAP going over $1200 a ton....China has now imposed a 100% export tax...always watch out for this weekly report now...I have posted the link earlier
> 
> ...




It seems to me that CDR. Andrew Drummond  always seems to come out with something at the right time

Could this be the chart he is using?  

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Adam A (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gday Evangeline 
can you help me please? where can i find the latest increase in dap prices,can't see $1200 a tonne anywhere thanks in advance


----------



## Greystone (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Re: Boardroom Radio - I have just listened to AD interview - approx. 15 mins. - he talks of trucking 3m tonnes annually to TC & then by rail to port (Darwin I presume) and an income from this project (2 years to get off the ground) of $1b against costs of $100m - based on todays costs, rock phosphate price.
Other projects discussed include Tas. & WA iron.
Moina may not be easy to mill, extract ore . I would like AD to sit down and have a discussion with Philip Wood of Intec (INL). They are (will be) building a plant about 50k down the bitumen hghwy from Moina using a unique patented process for the extraction of hard to seperate minerals.(Mango could fill everyone in on this process )
Anyway, if they can get Moina off the ground, there's another $1b annually plus other projects to come. 
MAK really looks like having more than one company making projects.


----------



## grace (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Captain_Chaza said:


> Andrew Drummond  always seems to come out with something at the right time



I think he is running a worm on hc, and every time the sentiment drops, he pulls something out of the news bag!  Fantastic if you are holding though!


----------



## Markcoinoz (13 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Gday Evangeline
> can you help me please? where can i find the latest increase in dap prices,can't see $1200 a tonne anywhere thanks in advance




Adam A,

http://www.fertilizer-index.com/

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/pdf/2008/TheMarket-041108.pdf


Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## Sean K (14 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Greystone said:


> Re: Boardroom Radio - I have just listened to AD interview - approx. 15 mins. -



Recorded presentation here:

http://www.brr.com.au/getpodcast/44510/event.mp3

Says that diamond drilling starts this week. Might be ann'd today perhaps. 

Also discloses there may be some 'corporate action' on Fraser Iron. Under discussion for disposal I assume, doesn't sound like JV. It's no longer a core asset? Would have to assume GRR would be the people they're speaking to.


----------



## adamim1 (14 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Might be a good idea to buy some shares today then in anticipation for an announcement.

I'll buy some today......


----------



## adamim1 (15 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bought some at 2.00 today. See where it goes. I only bought 500, but I'll see what happens in the future.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (15 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

From Bloomberg


Agrium, Potash, Mosaic Set Records on Outlook, China (Update1) 

By Christopher Donville

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Agrium Inc., North America's third- largest crop-nutrient maker, and two rivals rose to records in U.S. and Canadian trading after Russian producer OAO Uralkali said potash prices may surpass $1,000 a metric ton this year. 

Agrium jumped C$4.90, or 6.7 percent, to C$78.09 at 4:15 p.m. on the Toronto Stock Exchange after earlier touching an all-time high $78.25. The shares have advanced 67 percent in the past year as crop-nutrient prices rose and fertilizer producers sought to keep pace with expanding demand. 

Potash, a form of potassium, may reach $1,000 a ton ``rather fast'' because world output trails demand by 1.2 million tons, Oleg Petrov, sales chief for Berezniki, central Russia-based Uralkali, told investors today on a conference call. A price topping $1,000 a ton would be a fivefold increase from 2007. Both Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Mosaic Co. set new highs. 

Agrium, which sells potash and other nutrients, also gained after UBS AG analyst Brian MacArthur raised his price target on the Calgary-based company's New York-traded shares by 9.2 percent to $95, citing higher fertilizer prices. MacArthur also lifted his target for Potash Corp., the largest maker of crop nutrients, by 11 percent to $235 a share. 

Potash and other nutrient prices will rise after China imposed duties of 100 percent or more on phosphate and urea exports, Toronto-based MacArthur said today in a note to clients. 

``Panic will likely continue to unsettle the market'' for potash, MacArthur said. He rates Agrium shares ``buy.'' 

Price Forecast 

MacArthur also forecast phosphate prices to surpass $1,100 a ton, to $1,105 this year. Urea, potash and phosphates are all used to make fertilizers. 

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp. rose C$2.66, or 1.5 percent, to close at a record C$185.35 in Toronto after earlier reaching $188.02. MacArthur also rates Potash shares ``buy.'' 

Mosaic, North America's second-largest producer of crop nutrients by market value, rose $4.79, or 3.9 percent, to close at a record $126.40 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Mosaic, based in Plymouth, Minnesota, touched an all- time high $127.78 earlier in the session. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net. 

Last Updated: April 14, 2008 17:19 EDT 


Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Sean K (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

And the news for poo products just keeps getting bigger.

Doesn't sound too good for farmers and Africa though. 



> WINNIPEG, Manitoba, April 14 (Reuters) - China may slap an export tariff of 135 percent on phosphate fertilizers and 100 percent on urea nitrogen, creating concern about prices in an already tight market, UBS said on Monday in a research report.
> 
> Citing news reports, analyst Joe Dewhurst said the tariffs would stop Chinese phosphate exports, removing 19 percent of traded volumes for granular phosphates, which are important for India, Pakistan, Australia and Latin America.
> 
> ...


----------



## Fed23 (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Can someone give me an explaination why at 3pm today the share price of MAK sky rocketed 17%?

I was watching this all day and there was no accouncement.


----------



## adamim1 (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I know, i get alerts sent to me, it has been trading 1.98 -2.07 for most of today and yesterday and last trade today was 2.35. Maybe a mood swing by investors.


----------



## shaunm (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I was more along the line of thought as to why the hell the share price dropped so much yesterday. I'm quite relieved that it is back up again.


----------



## Adam A (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The reason it rocketted at 3pm is thats when the pros come out to play

IMHO the fetilizer market (or the poo brigade as yt calls it) has fantastic potential for future gains, google phosphate,grain shortage,food panic, and food riots for part of your research 

I have and its quite scary


----------



## adamim1 (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

What other companies deal in phosphate, but are in a similar position as MAK, as in fairly low share price?


----------



## Adam A (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

RWD  potash

BON  phosphate (africa)

STB  aust

Please look at their web sites for your own research


----------



## Rocket man (16 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

YEP its the big boys and when they start buying price moves quickly

RWD did same today up 15%

I am expecting a continuation of today for both MAK and RWD tomorrow .. history has shown prices of these stocks tend to move north continuously in waves then consolidate for a number of days ..


----------



## Sean K (17 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> That pennant/flag is starting to take shape, but who's to say where it goes from here. Would like to see some support being formed above $2.00 to maintain the upward trend.



$2 seemed to have been support. Breaking up from this flag gives a target that is the length of the pole. Aroundabout. Like the other targets that were all met, by chance. Just probabilities of course. 

Waiting for that next news.....


----------



## Sean K (17 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Approaching that breakout point. It's just intra day, but an EOD breakthrough the previous resistance is bullish. Just a probability of course. Anything can and will happen.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Looks like a breakout to me Kenna on some pretty large volume,

looks MAKnifiscant to me :

Wheres the next target?


----------



## adamim1 (17 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Peaked today at 2.85.

Maybe break the $3 mark, that would be exciting. We might then see it consolidate back down to high $2 mark after that?


----------



## Captain_Chaza (17 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Looks like a breakout to me Kenna on some pretty large volume,
> 
> looks MAKnifiscant to me :
> 
> Wheres the next target?




$10.00 is my first port of call 

But I  do reserve the right to Upgrade at my Leisure

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Kimosabi (17 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Stock Market Investing 101, Lesson 115

When the Stock Market turns to ****, Invest in Poo...


..........................................


----------



## Dezza (17 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Dow Futures down at the moment due to Merrill, Nokia, Pfizer...

Also might be a psychological barrier to close at or above $3....

But China locking in an export tax on fertilisers, so here's hoping!!


----------



## adamim1 (18 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Not much movement this morning. Fair few people trying to sell over $3. Has had a high at 2.95. Though maybe we'll get a 3pm boom like yesterday


----------



## Markcoinoz (18 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

One for the fertilizer buffs.

57 pages

Current World Fertilizer Trends & Outlook to 2011/2012

ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/cwfto11.pdf

Good weekend reading.


Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## Markcoinoz (18 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bear in mind that this report has become obsolete given China has changed its export role.

The updated version will be the real nail cruncher.

Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## Spineli (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Mr Drummond has suggested previously, production of 2-3Mtpa, when it eventually becomes a producer.

At US$350-400/t P2O5, this is worth between US$700m-US$1200m per year for MAK. Thats the sort of income (or more) US/Canadian PotashCorp is earning for each its Phosphate/Potash operations.  If MAK were producing and selling at those rates now, how does that rate with a MC of A$203.66m (2.73*74.6m shareholders). 

As an interesting point of comparison. I've read on this forum that FMG plans to start production at 35Mtpa. Mr Forrest wants to boost it to 100Mtpa in the near term. Even at 100Mtpa @$100/t that equates to $10bn revenue per year, with a current market cap in excess of $20bn. How does that compare with MAK's MC of $200m, with proposed production of 2-3Mtpa @ $350-400/t or US$700m-US$1200m per year.....

Having said that...have a look at RWD, "The current retail price for SOP is ca $800/tonne, giving the in-situ resource a value of ca $20 billion for Lake Disappointment", they are sitting on a MC of $90.75m...although they are planning to produce at ~200kt/a

and then there is IRC, which holds 13.87% of RWD...

With growing Chinese demand for agricultural products, increasing demand for biofuel which in turn increases demand for fertilizer - and hence phosphate, a circular game, I think that contrary to the above report which shows World Supply > World Demand, there is good opportunity for MAK as a long-term phosphate producer.



----------------------
This represents my view. Do your own analysis. I take no responsibility for the actions of others.


----------



## grace (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Spineli



> With growing Chinese demand for agricultural products, increasing demand for biofuel which in turn increases demand for fertilizer - and hence phosphate, a circular game, I think that contrary to the above report which shows World Supply > World Demand, there is good opportunity for MAK as a long-term phosphate producer.




I notice the worlds largest exporter of rock phosphate Morocco is ramping up production.  How quickly they can do this will determine the price of rock phosphate in the future IMO.  Currently they export 45-50% of the 29 million they mine - say 14 million tonne pa.  How quickly can other exporters ramp up production?

If they can ramp up quickly, the price of rock phosphate may drop considerably before MAK gets off the ground.  Does anyone know about the Morocco rock phosphate scene?

The answers to these questions will impact on whether MAK actually becomes a miner.

I believe that the involvement of a manufacturer of fertilizer (perhaps a JV with MAK) could remove a lot of risks.  There would be many interested, but this would take more than 2010 to become a reality in my opinion.  It would also be nice for for someone big to come in and build 230km of rail line! (after all, is a 460km round trip possible in the long term....just questions to be answered)

Just my two cents worth, and I'm happy to be proven wrong.


----------



## Adam A (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The middle eastern countrys that produce phosphate, have formed a loose cartell similar to opec, hence one of the reasons  for the recent price increases 

With such a dominent provider it probably wouldn,t be in their best interests to flood the market.

Remember that MAK is profitable at a lot less than current market prices for phospate 

As for a joint venture i think that as soon as a completed jorc is confirmed (ie this year) a takeover or jv will have been discussed 

China has now put a restriction on fertilizer exports and India has no rock phosphate producing grounds


----------



## prawn_86 (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Remember that MAK is profitable at a lot less than current market prices for phospate




Lets not get ahead of ourselves. MAK *ISNT* profitable at all yet, and wont be for some time. You have to remember they are still in exploration stage and there are a lot of things which could happen before they become a producer.


----------



## grace (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> India has no rock phosphate producing grounds




India has just renewed contract for their needs with the Moroccon government as posted earlier in this thread.




> *World and regional potential
> phosphate supply and demand
> balances (thousand tonnes)*
> 
> ...




Sorry, the formatting is out, but the bottem line is important (estimated surplus of supply over demand of rock phosphate in thousands of tonnes going forward to 2011/12).

I think going on this us farmers are being taken for a ride!


----------



## Adam A (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Fair call 
Thought i was on the other forum

Still FMG isnt technically, profitable either?

And i think MAK is a little bit further than just at exploration stage

My enthusiasm for this stock does get ahead of me thou 

dyor 

all the best


----------



## grace (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

From Markcoinoz supplied link, I think these are important points for holders of MAK to consider.  You might want to do some research on Morocco to see what their export potential is over the next 2 years prior to MAK becoming a potential miner....



> *Phosphate - Demand*
> 
> *With an increment of 4.2 million tonnes during the outlook period*, the
> expected annual growth rate in world demand for phosphate fertilizers is
> ...


----------



## Adam A (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gday grace 

Ive read thru that article re the future forecasts 

Nowhere, did i see his forecast of china imposing a 135% tariff on exports of fertilizer,now this tariff is only for six months, but as prawn pointed, out many things can happen in the future that are unplanned for.

All shares carry some sort of risk, even the blue chips,look at the banks, why even toll holdings as of thursday was struck a broadside blow

 Once most of the risk are removed the major gains imho are gone 

Thinking out loud i allso wonder what the time frame to (production) will be if the drilling of aruwurra (due to start in the next few weeks) produces out crop assays 0f over 30%


----------



## grace (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This is certainly news to me and a very intereting read.  Perhaps a major reason for IPL assisting Nauru to start mining again, was to sure up supply.

Certainly hope working conditions here are better

http://www.newscientist.com/blog/environment/2008/03/freds-footprint-treasure-in-desert.html

A billion or so of rock phosphate - wow!


----------



## champ2003 (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



grace said:


> India has just renewed contract for their needs with the Moroccon government as posted earlier in this thread.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Grace these figures are based off a perfect scenario where supply is growing and exports are authorised by those countries to distribute throughout the world. The problem that is occuring fast is that alot of exporting countries are placing massive export taxes on phosphate therefore discouraging exports. So as supply constraints happen the tighter the market becomes and the prices remain high or go even higher.

These figures are to be revised when the next issue is released as everything has recently changed especially with China placing 135% export taxes on fertilizer exports stripping at least 20% of supply from the market.


----------



## champ2003 (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Fair call
> Thought i was on the other forum
> 
> Still FMG isnt technically, profitable either?
> ...




Exactly!

MAK isn't an explorer any longer. It is in it's early days of developement and is being re- rated accordingly. It already has JORC resource and is now drilling to expand.

Cheers!


----------



## Markcoinoz (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Adam A,

I feel sorry for the poor guy who wrote that report before these changes took place.

- Bio fuel increase
- China imposing 135% Export tax.
- Africa going through its own energy crisis.
- Oil prices going through the roof.

The Aruwurra drilling is an important milestone for MAK considering it could very likely be fast tracked as DSO.  Looks like we have an exciting few months ahead of us.

Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## champ2003 (19 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Exactly!
> 
> MAK isn't an explorer any longer. It is in it's early days of developement and is being re- rated accordingly. It already has JORC resource and is now drilling to expand.
> 
> Cheers!




And lets not forget that people are just starting to get into MAK for their Tin/Tungsten projects as well as that is another boom market on its way. MAK is geared up and ready to take on that market in the near future as well.

These other potentially large projects reduces the risk when investing into MAK because if one project doesn't quite meet expectations another one will.

All looking good for the future IMO.


----------



## grace (20 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Grace these figures are based off a perfect scenario where supply is growing and exports are authorised by those countries to distribute throughout the world. The problem that is occuring fast is that alot of exporting countries are placing massive export taxes on phosphate therefore discouraging exports. So as supply constraints happen the tighter the market becomes and the prices remain high or go even higher.
> 
> These figures are to be revised when the next issue is released as everything has recently changed especially with China placing 135% export taxes on fertilizer exports stripping at least 20% of supply from the market.




If you believe in the China growth story, this is an interesting company

http://www.spur-ventures.com/_resources/CompanyFactsheet.pdf



> *Fertilizer Phosphates in China*
> • China accounts for 31% of P production and 29% of P demand
> globally
> •* China has 6.6 billion tonnes of rock phosphate reserves, 37%
> ...






> Spur Ventures Inc. *aims to be the premier integrated fertilizer manufacturer in Chin*a, with plans to produce up to one million tonnes per year of high -quality compound phosphate fertilizer for domestic consumption in the central province of Hubei, China.  *These expansion plans include the development of the largest phosphate deposit in China*, located near Yichang City.




Per my calcs....
China mines 50mill tonn = 31% world production and 29% of world demand.
50 /  31  x 100  =  161 million tonne world production of rock

China demand 29%  =  46.7 million tonne

Previous export =  50 million tonne -  46.7 million tonne
                     =  3.3 million tonne  (15% of their product)

So looks like a whole of 3.3 million tonne as a result of China not exporting.  China may become an importer though, and this little company looks to be trying to add a little bit more Chinese production.

China likes to hang onto reserves (just look what they did to the rare earths industry, and they are the major world reserve and exporter there).


----------



## JTLP (20 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Here is a completely random thought...

With population numbers rising and food shortages said to be all the rage, couldn't a non-governing body (say the UN) step up and strongly suggest to all nations to drop import/export taxes on food producing minerals (phosphate etc) so that food production becomes cheaper and the numbers are balanced out a bit more???

Maybe there is already a governing body that could enforce this??? Surely, for humanity's sake (as well as farmers) they aren't going to let this crazy phosphate price hike continue, as well as food prices rocketing out of control???


----------



## grace (20 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Gday grace
> 
> Ive read thru that article re the future forecasts
> 
> Nowhere, did i see his forecast of china imposing a 135% tariff on exports of fertilizer,now this tariff is only for six months, but as prawn pointed, out many things can happen in the future that are unplanned for.




Here is the info I found on those tarrifs at a different rate..????

Note that China has reduced production due to power shortages...



> 2008 Outlook  (China)
> 
> The severe winter weather during the New Years Festival has caused significant crop damage for winter crops, fruits and vegetables. 11 million hectares or approximately 9% of China’s cropland has been affected.  In addition, electrical interruptions caused the shut down of many fertilizer plants.  Transportation interruptions also impacted the industry.
> 
> Since the only means to recover from these crop losses is to increase yields per hectare, the government has taken several steps to ensure adequate supplies of fertilizer for the 2008 domestic market. The government has imposed export tariffs of *35% on MAP, DAP and NPK’s from February 15 to September 30 and 20% from October 1 to December 31*, 2008 and 30% on MOP, SOP and TSP for the remainder of this year.


----------



## Evangeline (20 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Grace

From the latest fertreport:

"Indian DAP purchasing totalling around 400,000 tonnes and the confirmation of Chinese export duties on phosphates at *135%* for DAP/MAP/NPKs dominate the phosphates market this week."

The 35% is on top of the 100% export tariff which was also recently imposed on DAP.

IPL's latest Asian conference presso predicts that world demand will be at 180million tons p.a. by 2010.


----------



## Adam A (20 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi grace 

Details on increase

(hope it works first post re link)

cheers

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSPEK27931120080417?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews


----------



## adamim1 (23 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

New interview with  Andrew drummond after his trip overseas.

Any thoughts.

Shares dropping today, may be opportunity to buy some more.

Some good info on tin prices.


----------



## Sean K (26 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK chart has produced another flag on a pole, after some natural consolidation. Hopefully it continues to script with another break up, but could find it's way towards that upward trend line perhaps. At some stage it may go through a larger correction when the mc starts getting to a point where it's mc and potential return/value become more aligned. Still hard to say where that will be with longer term RP prices still an uncertainty and further feasability studies required. However, on the surface of it, if the initial $1b a year turnover eventuates as AD anticipates, then it's mc still seems undemanding. Happy to keep holding for some time in that regard.


----------



## champ2003 (26 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> MAK chart has produced another flag on a pole, after some natural consolidation. Hopefully it continues to script with another break up, but could find it's way towards that upward trend line perhaps. At some stage it may go through a larger correction when the mc starts getting to a point where it's mc and potential return/value become more aligned. Still hard to say where that will be with longer term RP prices still an uncertainty and further feasability studies required. However, on the surface of it, if the initial $1b a year turnover eventuates as AD anticipates, then it's mc still seems undemanding. Happy to keep holding for some time in that regard.




Don't forget Tin Kennas,

Just when you think that it's just about as big as it can get MAK will come out with something else to surprise the market IMO. Having said that, it is no surprise to hear that MAK is becoming increasingly focussed on their Tin projects. LME Tin stocks are at their lowest and it's going to go a heck of alot lower in the short term pushing the price of Tin which is already just off all time highs through the roof. All great for the MAK train. The Iron Ore project will get a boost soon as well IMO through various developments currently taking place. Far too much potential with this company i say.

Just mind blowing!

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## champ2003 (26 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Don't forget Tin Kennas,
> 
> Just when you think that it's just about as big as it can get MAK will come out with something else to surprise the market IMO. Having said that, it is no surprise to hear that MAK is becoming increasingly focussed on their Tin projects. LME Tin stocks are at their lowest and it's going to go a heck of alot lower in the short term pushing the price of Tin which is already just off all time highs through the roof. All great for the MAK train. The Iron Ore project will get a boost soon as well IMO through various developments currently taking place. Far too much potential with this company i say.
> 
> ...




And don't forget that from the 1st May China will impose a 135% export tax which will last until at least September. Phosphate prices have a fair way to go yet IMO before they correct a little and then stabilize at high levels much the same way that oil did in its early days.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Sean K (26 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> And don't forget that from the 1st May China will impose a 135% export tax which will last until at least September. Phosphate prices have a fair way to go yet IMO before they correct a little and then stabilize at high levels much the same way that oil did in its early days.
> 
> Cheers!
> 
> Champ



Champ, I've been soaking in all the data from all the world in regard to food shortages and the like and I'm getting more and more bullish towards any Ag stock. Moreso towards anything producing however! MAK need to keep the momentum flowing in this regard and not just be a tarding stock! Please AD, keep the news flowing!! Based just on Wonarah you will become a very, very wealthy individual!! Along with us long term holders!!!!


----------



## champ2003 (26 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Champ, I've been soaking in all the data from all the world in regard to food shortages and the like and I'm getting more and more bullish towards any Ag stock. Moreso towards anything producing however! MAK need to keep the momentum flowing in this regard and not just be a tarding stock! Please AD, keep the news flowing!! Based just on Wonarah you will become a very, very wealthy individual!! Along with us long term holders!!!!




Hey Kennas,

I'm sure that AD will keep the news flowing for Wonarah and Arruwurra. In his latest interview on BRR he said that he is absolutely focussed on advancing Wonarah however he is just being smart in also keeping up to spead with Tin.

A very smart man indeed. Lot's of good times to come IMO.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Markcoinoz (26 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Here is the Fertiliser report for this week.

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/pdf/2008/TheMarket-042408.pdf



for the week beginning thursday 24/04/2008

DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne) $1,216.25
DAP fob Central Florida (short ton) $1,011.25
DAP fob NOLA (short ton) $996.25

Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $545.00
Urea (Prill) fob Baltic (metric tonne) $521.75
Urea (prill) fob China bulk/bagged (metric tonne) $606.25
Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (short ton) $496.25
Urea (gran) fob Middle East (metric tonne) $506.25

Ammonia fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $480.00
Ammonia cfr Tampa (metric tonne) $550.00

Ammonium nitrate fob NOLA (short ton) $360.00

UAN (32% N) fob NOLA (short ton) $343.75

molten sulphur cfr Tampa/delivered C.Florida ($/long ton) $451.25
solid sulphur - Adnoc monthly lifting price at Ruwais ($/tonne) $670.00


As well i gleaned this brilliant Fertiliser Map from another forum.
Not only the mention of Imports/Exports, it also shows the livestocks of each country.

From the Potash Website.

http://www.potashcorp.com/media/flash/world_map/

Will also put it up in the Reward forum as it is very relevant.

Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I still think back to when MAK was 16c and shae my head in disbelief, the stock has almost put on 20x or 2000% and still sort seems fairly vauled given the size of their Phosphate deposit

This Agri boom as created a new breed of PDN's and FMG's

Watching


----------



## johnnyg (29 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I still think back to when MAK was 16c and shae my head in disbelief, the stock has almost put on 20x or 2000% and still sort seems fairly vauled given the size of their Phosphate deposit
> 
> This Agri boom as created a new breed of PDN's and FMG's
> 
> Watching




What about the options.... from 0.05 to $2.40, almost x50.  Truely amazing.................................(dots are to make the 100 character length)


----------



## michael_selway (29 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I still think back to when MAK was 16c and shae my head in disbelief, the stock has almost put on 20x or 2000% and still sort seems fairly vauled given the size of their Phosphate deposit
> 
> This Agri boom as created a new breed of PDN's and FMG's
> 
> Watching




Hi YT

At current prices, do you prefer MAK, RWD, IPL, STB, Other?

thx

MS

*Date: 4/4/2008 
Author: Andrew White 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 74 
There is a growing chorus of voices in Australia who see the regulators at fault in the aftermath of the collapse of stockbroking house Opes Prime. Some $A1.4bn in shares held by Opes as collateral for margin loans to its clients have been transferred to creditors Merrill Lynch and ANZ Banking, which have begun to sell off the scrip. Investors argue this action should have been stopped by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission and stock exchange operator ASX. In some cases the original stockholders have seen their shares being sold just as they appreciated in value, such as those in Minemakers. *


----------



## adamim1 (29 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



michael_selway said:


> Hi YT
> 
> At current prices, do you prefer MAK, RWD, IPL, STB, Other?
> 
> ...




Personally, I think RWD is looking really good at the moment. I have a small amount in STB RWD and MAK. Not too sure about STB, whether i should hang on or not...?

Like to hear YT words.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



michael_selway said:


> Hi YT
> 
> At current prices, do you prefer MAK, RWD, IPL, STB, Other?
> 
> ...




Thats a hard question but since your asking me my opinion I can only tell you what I did and am doing, I held MAK from 16c-18c and MAKO from 5c-8c

I steadily sold on the way up and once it got to $1.80 I think I sold my MAKO, why? well its just how I do things, IT DOES NOT MEAN THE PEAK IS REACHED remember I sold my last YML@$1.20 a few weeks later it hit $3, I just invest where I buy into fundamentally undervalued positions have a target in my head and take profits as their reached

Likewise with RWD I feel it too has now performed extremely well, how much upside is left I don't know

I do really like STB but given its a very early stage explorer I only have a smallish spec position in it which I will bottom draw

I really like GCR, I see it as a very cheap entry into the Agri sector, it has a historic resource and appears to be partnered up with a majot player in Phosphate


Value is for everyone to decide, I have only posted a direct response to a question, this isn't advice so please DYOR

On a side note, I really feel for those Opes Prime MAK and MAKO holders, ouch!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Spineli (30 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Courtesy: The New York Times

The Food Chain: Fertilizer Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/worldbusiness/30fertilizer.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Video @...

http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_story=2ac5e89ebe7db83e09a79a59e7eef7bf21aafa0c


----------



## Spineli (30 April 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Worldwide Fertilizer Consumption Demand is on the increase...see the attached file for a World schematic.

A few people have been discussing the consequences of a reduction in arable land. The NY Times article points to increased desire for efficiency to generate higher yields, a direct result from increasing fertilizer use across developing economies.


----------



## Markcoinoz (3 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Here are the updated pricing and reports for fertiliser.

http://www.fertilizer-index.com/

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/pdf/2008/TheMarket-050108.pdf

Cheers markcoinoz


----------



## Miner (4 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



johnnyg said:


> What about the options.... from 0.05 to $2.40, almost x50.  Truely amazing.................................(dots are to make the 100 character length)




Looking into MAK progress it seems they are going to spend heavily on rock phosphate and  tin now. 
I would be curious to know if you get a speeding ticket for using dots from the moderator Doctor J. If not, I will be querying the basis of not giving you one (nothing personal my friend) but like to know from the moderators  the consistency of moderation.

Regards


----------



## Sean K (4 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Miner said:


> Looking into MAK progress it seems they are going to spend heavily on rock phosphate and  tin now.
> I would be curious to know if you get a speeding ticket for using dots from the moderator Doctor J. If not, I will be querying the basis of not giving you one (nothing personal my friend) but like to know from the moderators  the consistency of moderation.
> 
> Regards



Mods don ´t watch the site 24/7 Miner. Give us a break! You can report these types of violations by using the report function, we would much appreciate it. Cheers, kennas


----------



## Miner (4 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Mods don ´t watch the site 24/7 Miner. Give us a break! You can report these types of violations by using the report function, we would much appreciate it. Cheers, kennas




Thanks Kennas point noted.
I thought Moderators do not sleep but I was wrong. Thanks to geographical clock difference and time for me to have a nap now


----------



## adamim1 (6 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK really has dropped today.  Its been about 3-4 weeks since its been this low..

Anyone know whats happening?


----------



## pattyp (6 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

People are running rampant into spec Phosphate/Potash plays... Ones with no resources only dreams and hype... Don't get me wrong, I'm buying a few myself 

I caught the falling knife (MAK) today at 243c... Its reached my technical buy zone... It may break and go 215'ish... But I doubt it...

Just look at the Legend announcement last night... MAK is a comparable operation, but with 80% less CAPEX... If MAK was on the US exchange it would be 4+... Aussies are slow to warm up.

I think MAK is a very strong BUY... But I'm an idiot, DYOR.

Pat


----------



## paperclip (6 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

that gap at $2.35 needs to be filled boys, may as well fill it now while we're down here.
holding a large parcel so DYOR and dont take my word for it.

cheers PC


----------



## pattyp (6 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

It has traded inside the gap... 

I personally like to buy inside the gap because people often get over excited when the gap gets hit and the price flys away without me..

But I agree with you, I am anticipating the gap to close... I just figure a buy between 245c and 235c leaves only a few % of move against me...

Good Luck all.


----------



## hardcoremike (7 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bought in exactly $2.35 today
Can someone tell me the significance of trading within the gap? is it more of a psychological thing?
cheers


----------



## pattyp (7 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Its ALL psychological unless u r buying based on fundamentals 

Technical theory indicates that a jump in the price (A Gap) is often back filled... No real reason for it except that traders trade with this belief. Like a lot of TA theory, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Keep your eye on it... This Gap Fill anomaly is very often respected.

Google is my friend: Gaps and Gap Analysis
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:gaps_and_gap_analysis

Pat


----------



## Evangeline (7 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kennas....how is the chart looking?

Is anyone here on mnm...it seems a bit overrated imo...yet people seem to be expecting it to run like mak???

Pat...now the gap has been filled and we have bounced back over $2.40..where do you see the sp heading now?

Cheers
EV


----------



## pattyp (7 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Verdict is out - From a TA perspective, tomorrow is pretty critical in my opinion... Need some volume to the upside! If the gap doesn't prove to be a turning point, then I see 210'ish not far away.

Fundamentally (and I'm a fundamental kinda guy) - This dog is pretty solid... All i'm concerned with is the days ticking over and the Phosphate price staying high...

Everyday is another day closer to production and a billion dollar corporation.

Just my opinion


----------



## adamim1 (8 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well i bought in at $2  about 3-4 weeks ago. So i won't be worried if it drops that low. 

I wonder if MAK runs again MNM will follow it... around the same time??


----------



## Sean K (9 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This is just natural consolidation IMO, in between the drilling. Money has probably switched into the very juniors as well, and others have just taken profits. Probably a bunch of new holders now who need to be patient. All the fundamental discussion hasn`t changed, unless I`ve missed something. With the potential of $1b cashflow in 2 years, it has some room to move. 

Chart wise disappointed it broke 2.50, but as discussed the gap should provide some support, then $2.00. Just a word on gaps, they don`t have to be filled. There is such thing as a  ´breakaway gap`that is as the name suggests. I think there was a gap up around 20 cents actually. Let`s hope that was a breakaway!


----------



## adamim1 (12 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK is getting really low today. Looks like there is a lot of buyers around 1.98-2.04. Could this be a support zone ?

Maybe a good time to buy in - i bought in at this time about a month ago.


----------



## kenny (12 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I agree with Kennas; especially about hoping the 20c gap isn't waiting to be filled. 

Today's Australian article on the "Phosphate bubble" may have spooked some to take some money off the table.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23680699-18261,00.html

Anyone want to hazard a TA opinion on a likely support level? Do I hear $2.02?

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## pattyp (12 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I personally am not looking for support level, I'm waiting for reversal signal... 

The supports, MAs and trend-lines so far have been disregarded. We need a double bottom, reverse head/shoulders or a candle pattern... Something like that!

I hold these, not yet nervous - Fundamentals haven't changed.

Just my opinion!


----------



## champ2003 (12 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kenny said:


> I agree with Kennas; especially about hoping the 20c gap isn't waiting to be filled.
> 
> Today's Australian article on the "Phosphate bubble" may have spooked some to take some money off the table.
> 
> ...




One thing that i got from that article that is clearly a standout positive point is this:-

(It is true that phosphate is going to be in huge demand to meet world food needs. But it's a long way from grab samples to bagging the end product.)

The first point that I like is the re-inforced belief that demand is going to be huge and the second is that alot of projects are a long way off from production which means that supply will remain constrained keeping the price of RP high. 

I also like the fact that MAK wasn't mentioned as a spec because MAK is the real deal!

Champ


----------



## pattyp (12 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

LoL Champ - You are as bad as I am when it comes to forum copy/paste...

I agree with you... MAK is something special.

I did a DCF on the Fluorspar project and pasted on T$... Here it is again.

This project is almost as big as the Phosphate one.

Pat


-----------------------------------
**Theoretical DCF**

8yr time frame

Ship 2mt/pa Fluorspar, ramp to 3mt/pa by yr 5

Fluorspar $200p/ton taper off to 130p/ton

Open cut Opex Avg $110p/ton (Maybe too high, I'm being safe)

CAPEX 200mil (Debt 60%, Eq. 40%) Paid off over 7yrs.

Gives me a Fair Value of 339,000,000 MCap.

Avg 90mil EBT per year.

Avg 60mil Free Cash Flow.
-----------------------------------

Pg 9 - MARCH 2008 QUARTERLY REPORT
http://www.minemakers.com.au/documents/qr0803.pdf

"During the Quarter, Minemakers announced that the price of benchmark fluorspar delivered to Europe had risen to from the US$130/t price of a year earlier to US$315/t.

Moina is one of Australia’s largest fluorspar deposits and, based on historic drilling, mineralisation potential for an open cut operation of the 50-60Mt range is considered possible by Minemakers. At a 3Mtpa processing rate, Moina could be a significant long term fluorspar and tungsten producer.

Shareholders are reminded that fluorspar is the principal mineral containing fluorine and is the ultimate main source for all fluorine-based chemicals. Accordingly, it is a critical raw material for the production of aluminium metal, as well as refrigeration and air-conditioning. The growth outlook for aluminium, in particular, seems very strong."


----------



## champ2003 (12 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



pattyp said:


> LoL Champ - You are as bad as I am when it comes to forum copy/paste...
> 
> I agree with you... MAK is something special.
> 
> ...




LOL i was hoping no-one realised the copy & paste although i did add alot of extra info on the other forum 

By the way how did you come to this market cap? (Gives me a Fair Value of 339,000,000 MCap.)
Is this the market cap that you feel that MAK should currently have on top of the current market cap?

Champ


----------



## pattyp (12 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> By the way how did you come to this market cap? (Gives me a Fair Value of 339,000,000 MCap.)
> Is this the market cap that you feel that MAK should currently have on top of the current market cap?




Its a MCap Value based purely on Fluorspar project - So theoreticallly you plus it on top of the Phosphate project.

My MAK Phosphate DCF is based on low end Ph price - Say 200p/ton... Comes our around the same as the Fluorspar...$380m MCap

So a MCap of $700-800m is realistic if these projects come online close to my forecast. 

In theory... Its all theoretical.

I actually apply a Risk Ratio of 65% to non-producers with JORC resource... So a speculative fair value, both projects, with risk weighted into it would place MAK at $300-$400m MCap.

So based on my analysis I am happy to accumulate on corrections up to that price, or higher prices as the risk adjusts as we get closer to production...

Sorry for the long response 

Pat

BTW - Fair Value is calculated as follows: http://www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/dcf4.asp


----------



## champ2003 (13 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



pattyp said:


> Its a MCap Value based purely on Fluorspar project - So theoreticallly you plus it on top of the Phosphate project.
> 
> My MAK Phosphate DCF is based on low end Ph price - Say 200p/ton... Comes our around the same as the Fluorspar...$380m MCap
> 
> ...




Thanks for that Pattyp,

I basically agree with you. The only problem that I have with the calculations to attain fair value is that fair value is really determined by the market which will probably value this much higher than the standard fair value calculations in the article. All due to global demand of course and the AG bull market that we are in.

Very interesting reading though.

Amazing watching MAK go up so much today. That announcement shows that MAK is the real deal and is definately going to advance to production much faster than initially anticipated. I think that we are in for some exciting times ahead.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## pattyp (13 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Champ, 

I Agree - It is absolutely possible that the market value a stock higher (Or lower) then a DCF NPV and MCap Fair Value... And with DCF data the problem is "garbage in, garbage out"... 

Never-the-less, this type of analysis really sorts the silver from the sand when buying for longer term.

And at best, my DCF is the conservative estimate - the market can very often run on the crazy estimate...

Good news for us is even on conservative estimate there is great upside in value and we can buy on dips with more confidence.

Just my opinion, not a professional 

Pat


----------



## pattyp (15 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Market is REALLY thinking hard about MAK... 

Where to go? Up or Down...?

I actually think its looking better (For bulls) after today... 

Daily:
Good buying off the 2buc zone... Holding above my med-term 55MA, also holding above my 382 retracement.

Candles look to be consolidating at this point and the last couple days have been a slight uptrend.

Weekly:
Same as Daily, except REALLY clearly shows the battle that has been raging. Don Mega Spinning top... It’s red, so bears are winning... Just!

Volume continues to be low and fairly insignificant... Little conviction from both the bulls and bears!

One thing to note is that Volume on Big Drop, was less then the Volume on Big Bounce... IMO People still believe the story, they are just waiting for the signal to buy!

If tomorrow shows buying strength, I think I may top up a little bit. 

Just my opinion - Its a Perspective not Advice..

Pat


----------



## pattyp (16 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

North American Ferilizer Plays are going off!!!!

POT     204   +2.6%
MOS    128   +2.3%
AGU     89    +2.7%
CF       140   +2.7%
IPI       48    +1.5%
LGDI.OB 3.77 +8.9%

Lets hope it holds through the night and the optimism translates back to Aus tomorrow...


----------



## Sean K (16 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Interesting ann the other day, especially their approach to the unusual trading. I ´ve never seen a company actually go to the ASX before to sort it out. Still not sure what to make of it though. Who ´s playing with it...

And, great update on Wonarah, and I agree with the sentiments above ovout these guys moving forward quickly while the poo ´s steaming! 



> *WONARAH UPDATE*
> The opportunity is taken for a brief update on activities at Wonarah as follows:
> 
> 1. Diamond drilling: this drilling for geotechnical and metallurgical investigations is proceeding.
> ...




Just hope RP prices consolidate nicely and there ´s no dramatic price declines which will spook punters.


----------



## sheepdip (17 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Just hope RP prices consolidate nicely and there ´s no dramatic price declines which will spook punters.




Latest market update from Fertilizerworks has prices RISING to $400+ this week



> For example, there are reports this week that Q3 phosphate rock is on offer from North African
> suppliers and Jordan at over $400/tonne FOB.




:jump:

Also the Chinese earthquake has hit right in the middle of phosphate country! A number of mines and at least 2 DAP plants rumoured to be wiped out. Prices aren't going down anytime soon. Should be an interesting day on Monday.


----------



## champ2003 (17 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



sheepdip said:


> Latest market update from Fertilizerworks has prices RISING to $400+ this week
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yes Sheepdip,

It certainly adds to the confidence of the price of Phosphate remaining high. I think that a correction will come but who knows what the price will be at that stage. EG it may go to 600 or 700 in a spike and then correct to 300??? Who knows. It's blatantly obvious that the price will remain high enough for MAK to make a motza out of it in any case so I feel very comfortable holding and buying more on dips.

Champ


----------



## Sean K (20 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> This is just natural consolidation IMO, in between the drilling. Money has probably switched into the very juniors as well, and others have just taken profits. Probably a bunch of new holders now who need to be patient. All the fundamental discussion hasn`t changed, unless I`ve missed something. With the potential of $1b cashflow in 2 years, it has some room to move.
> 
> Chart wise disappointed it broke 2.50, but as discussed the gap should provide some support, then $2.00. Just a word on gaps, they don`t have to be filled. There is such thing as a  ´breakaway gap`that is as the name suggests. I think there was a gap up around 20 cents actually. Let`s hope that was a breakaway!



When the stock bounced off the $2 mark so positively a few days ago I was very happy. Not too happy with the downtrend continuing and it`s knocking on the door again. Bounce off $2.00 MAK. Please.


----------



## i wanna b rich! (20 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I just lost what i made in the past 6 months with MAK.... i brought around $2.54,  
because i put alot more % of capital in MAK.

I'm planning to sell and buy again just for the "capital loss offset", but am planning to hold.

Will this share go as high as $3.00 as some predicted? is there is potential (i would imagine yes)


----------



## Sean K (20 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



i wanna b rich! said:


> I just lost what i made in the past 6 months with MAK.... i brought around $2.54,
> because i put alot more % of capital in MAK.
> 
> I'm planning to sell and buy again just for the "capital loss offset", but am planning to hold.
> ...



So, maybe some lessons in there IWBR? 

It's your money, do you think it's going back to $3.00, and why?


----------



## adamim1 (20 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Their Wonarah project certainly has potential. Not to mention Rock Phosphate prices with predictions it will go higher. I bought in at $2 and at the moment i am trying to get more at around that $2 mark. There is strong support at that $2 and i personally don't think it will go below that mark (though nothing is cement), just look at all the buyers in at $2. Its just dropping at the moment because its a bit quiet. They're drilling at the moment - so i guess when that is finished we might see another price change.

Rio looked at this mine a few years ago but it couldn't be justified at the RP prices back then. Since then MAK is looking at it and the price of RP is much MUCH higher. Making it potentially viable. There is plenty of rock phosphate out at Wonarah and i think it is certainly something i will hold long term.

I think MAK is also being managed well by Andrew too which makes a difference.

All stocks are a risk, just got to wait and see.

Only my thoughts - don't take this as advice.


----------



## Kimosabi (20 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

As with the Uranium Mania, every dog and his bone has been jumping onto the Poo Wagon which is starting to Dilute the Poo Sector....


----------



## Sean K (21 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Kimosabi said:


> As with the Uranium Mania, every dog and his bone has been jumping onto the Poo Wagon which is starting to Dilute the Poo Sector....



Good point Kimosabi. I think MAK (and RWD - and IPL of course) were lucky to be the first off the rank with relatively advanced projects at the time poo exploaded. Since all the others have been jumping on the bandwagon the money has shifted around the sector, stalling MAK and RWD as the massive gains had been made. I think the cream will rise to the top for a long term 'value' stock, just need to pick which one. I've put my eggs into MAK but not just because of Wonarah, but for their other couple of company making projects which should be in the news in the coming weeks.


----------



## adamim1 (21 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thats very true. I think a of people saw MAK and then looked at the "next in line". I certainly did.


----------



## i wanna b rich! (21 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> So, maybe some lessons in there IWBR?
> 
> It's your money, do you think it's going back to $3.00, and why?




lessons are: to be patient, i was tired of making slow money and took a punt! and ended up on the wrong side. 

To me MAK now seems to me established company and i agree with "adamim1" the share price is meeting resistance at the $2 low's.  

Any one here daytrading MAK?


----------



## Sean K (23 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> When the stock bounced off the $2 mark so positively a few days ago I was very happy. Not too happy with the downtrend continuing and it`s knocking on the door again. Bounce off $2.00 MAK. Please.



Yes, $2.00 should be support, and it's respecting it so far. Plus first small signs of a short term change of direction IMO. Some white candles and pushing against downtrend. Too early to call though. It's been a tough few weeks for buyers getting in late I imagine. As has been mentioned I think it's just money shifting around the sector. Punters looking for the next multibagger in the hot poo sector. What we should be left with shortly is firmer hands in MAK, and those looking for longer term investments.


----------



## champ2003 (24 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Yes, $2.00 should be support, and it's respecting it so far. Plus first small signs of a short term change of direction IMO. Some white candles and pushing against downtrend. Too early to call though. It's been a tough few weeks for buyers getting in late I imagine. As has been mentioned I think it's just money shifting around the sector. Punters looking for the next multibagger in the hot poo sector. What we should be left with shortly is firmer hands in MAK, and those looking for longer term investments.




No offence guys however is it possible to not refer to the fertilizer industry as the POO sector???

It is not the POO sector any longer. Fertilizer is no longer POO, it is chemically based. 

It doesn't really paint the correct picture in ones mind now does it when you mention POO???

I think that you should leave that to the tiolet 

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Evangeline (24 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks for the chart Kennas...nice close yesterday...hope the trend will continue next week   There should be news out in the next couple of weeks...feedback from meetings in the NT with govt depts and transport coys i hope


----------



## Sean K (24 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> No offence guys however is it possible to not refer to the fertilizer industry as the POO sector???
> 
> It is not the POO sector any longer. Fertilizer is no longer POO, it is chemically based.
> 
> ...



So, what is fertiliser other than poo, champ? ....... 


Maybe we can start calling it cr@p? Or, ****?


----------



## champ2003 (24 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> So, what is fertiliser other than poo, champ? .......
> 
> 
> Maybe we can start calling it cr@p? Or, ****?




Kennas,

MAK is going to produce Rock Phosphate not POO as you know so don't call it POO simple as that. If anything the word to use is actually called dung or manure!

There are many types of fertilizers. Dung is one of them from various animal sources although the crop sectors which we are focussing on with MAK require the use of much more powerful types of chemically based fertilizers which of course fuel the demand side from which will make MAK a success.

That is why Phosphate and Potash are fast becoming in great demand. Dung is becoming less popular and the new fertilizer types are in. As you will see most fertilizers these days are chemically based as manure doesn't retain the appropriate amounts of N, P & K as effectively.

Here is an explanation of some of the different types of fertilizers:-

Fertilizer Types
Soil amendments are made by using fertilizer but there are different types of fertilizer. There is of course the organic fertilizer that includes manure, organic compost and green manure crops. And then there is also chemical fertilizer which is made up with different formulations to suit a variety of specified uses. 

*Chemical fertilizer usually comes in either granular or powder form in bags and boxes, or in liquid formulations in bottles. Chemical fertilizer can be categorized even further into:*

*Complete inorganic fertilizers: – these types of fertilizer contain all three major macronutrients, Nitrogen (N), Phosphorous (P) and Potassium (K). On the containers you will find that these macronutrients are depicted as a ratio, e.g. 2:3:2 (22). Complete inorganic fertilizers are usually applied at a rate of 60g/m2 or roughly 4 tablespoons per square meter. *

*Special purpose fertilizer: – these types of fertilizer are formulated especially to target certain plants' requirements or certain soil deficiencies. Of the examples that come to mind here are the Blue Hydrangea Food, and straight fertilizer that is made up of one particular plant nutrient for example lawn fertilizer. *

*Liquid fertilizers: – these types of fertilizer come in a variety of formulations and even include organic fertilizer, complete fertilizer as well as special purpose fertilizer. Some examples of liquid fertilizer are Nitrosol and African Violet Food. *

*Slow-release fertilizer: – these types of fertilizer are formulated to release their nitrogen at a steady pace. On the packs of this fertilizer that are available commercially it will usually be depicted as 3:1:5 (SR) where the SR indicates slow-release. *
*Fertilizer with insecticide: – these types of fertilizer that are prepared and combined with an insecticide. One such example is Wonder 4:1:1 (21) + Karbaspray. *

_There are many other types of mineral/chemical based fertilizers that are used for crops as well._

It is the fertilizer sector Kennas. 

Maybe we should be calling it the chemical sector then since the best fertilizers are chemical/Mineral based?? 

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## champ2003 (24 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> Kennas,
> 
> MAK is going to produce Rock Phosphate not POO as you know so don't call it POO simple as that. If anything the word to use is actually called dung or manure!
> 
> ...





And after all of that i forgot to mention that the most important fertilizer called DAP which is a super fertilizer used in Corn, Wheat, Sugar cane and Rice production amongst many other crops requires Rock Phosphate as one of it's key ingredients in the production of DAP.

Champ


----------



## adamim1 (27 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK looks to be one of the legitimate phosphate companies but it doesn't seem to be reflected in its share price, currently at $2.12. Looks to be struggling.

Might I also mention RWD looks to be struggling as well around that 1.60 mark, though support is holding up good there.

Very little volume in both companies.


----------



## Spineli (27 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> MAK looks to be one of the legitimate phosphate companies but it doesn't seem to be reflected in its share price, currently at $2.12. Looks to be struggling.
> 
> Might I also mention RWD looks to be struggling as well around that 1.60 mark, though support is holding up good there.
> 
> Very little volume in both companies.




adamim1,

I think that has been the case for the past several weeks as a lot of speculative money has been flowing into anything coal related - into both the established and junior players.

Fundamentals of poo stocks remain very strong imo. Demand/supply/price etc as has been reported previously.

It's a case of patience with me. Usually pays off.


----------



## Adam A (27 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Interesting article on the minemakers web site re the latest eddition of australian resources magazine ( sorry will learn tonight how to post a link )


----------



## yang (27 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

thanks for the heads up mate...

http://www.minemakers.com.au/downloads/RSJune08LRMinemakers.pdf

will have a read tonight sometime


----------



## adamim1 (27 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

good read. Certainly makes me feel good about MAK. Also puts into perspective that MAK also has other prospects besides phosphate.


----------



## i wanna b rich! (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK broke through the $2 resistance it's been meeting for the past two weeks, as low as $1.86.... Got me a little worried now. And the All ordinaries has taken a tumble too.


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Holy crap, MAK has had better days, breaking some very important support at $2, and down 10% for what seems to be zero reason, which makes me think there is a reason. Perhaps drilling at Wonarah has been ordinary. Or, is it just 'fear and greed'? Concerning. True test of sentiment and quality coming up here I feel.


----------



## Atma (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

yes this has gotten smashed. all good things come to an end. nothing lasts forever. i can't speculate on drilling results, but the fertiliser stock sector overseas is in downtrend.

next stop may be 1.50. wish they could give some results.

it is in a bad downtrend.


----------



## derty (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

champ - calling the phosphate sector the poo sector isn't far off the mark. After all, most phosphate deposits are formed originally from either animal poo (usually birds) or from skeletal remains of marine animals and their waste products. I know when I was with WMC and the Phosphate Hill mine was starting up along with the Hi-Fert fertiliser business we used to call the business unit the 'Poo Factory' back then. 

Hopefully the poo sector pulls out of its dive soon. Waiting until it shows some signs of turning around to do some averaging up


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I have said this before, but I think these stocks ran too hard in too shorta time, creating the bubble, which was shrinking naturally, but has turned into a little burst. I think the market is anticipating price reductions for poo products thus resulting in this profit taking.


----------



## the barry (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Holy crap, MAK has had better days, breaking some very important support at $2, and down 10% for what seems to be zero reason, which makes me think there is a reason. Perhaps drilling at Wonarah has been ordinary. Or, is it just 'fear and greed'? Concerning. True test of sentiment and quality coming up here I feel.




Volume is a big worry here as well. Someone wants out by the look of it. Any thoughts on a bottom? The joys of illiquid stocks, move equally as fast down as they do up.


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



the barry said:


> Volume is a big worry here as well. Someone wants out by the look of it. Any thoughts on a bottom? The joys of illiquid stocks, move equally as fast down as they do up.



Barry, my gut thought on this move is that it's some early holders who are starting to see massive gains disappear before their eyes and they are jumping ship in panic. 

Also, like the euphoria of punters jumping on as the price went up exponentially, there is fear off losses as late comers start seeing their hard earned disapper. 

Snow ball.

The medium to longer term fundamentals are in tact, it is just market psychology driving it right now, as would be expected in normal market dynamics. 

Fear and greed. 

Unless the 'fundamentals' have changed dramatically, which is more improbable.


----------



## Adam A (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I think your last post somes up the situation perfectly kennas

I am a long term holder and my profits have dropped considerably

If it wasnt for my own personal research (and that of others)i would of set my stop at about the $1.92 mark and would now be out 

For better or for worse I  have no line drawn in the sand 

Geez it was fun thou at those heady days of $2.50 plus

Time will tell


----------



## adamim1 (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I tell you what, i was at work and I got a call from the missus telling me they were at 1.80...... my mouth dropped.

I bought more... today.. at the wrong price though... 2.04. Might buy some more tomorrow.


----------



## Adam A (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Wrong price today, correct

Wrong price tomorrow or the next day, maybe 

wrong price in a few months time imho no

Fundamentally i cant see whats really changed,the more i look into my reasons for holding and the future world requirements for fertilizer (not to mention maks other projects in tassie and WA) the more im convinced.

 I remember that sick feeling when i bought a few at 0.62c only to see them drop back to 0.42c (approx)


----------



## champ2003 (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



derty said:


> champ - calling the phosphate sector the poo sector isn't far off the mark. After all, most phosphate deposits are formed originally from either animal poo (usually birds) or from skeletal remains of marine animals and their waste products. I know when I was with WMC and the Phosphate Hill mine was starting up along with the Hi-Fert fertiliser business we used to call the business unit the 'Poo Factory' back then.
> 
> Hopefully the poo sector pulls out of its dive soon. Waiting until it shows some signs of turning around to do some averaging up




Well this is the only forum that speaks of the fertilizer sector as the poo sector. Maybe you guys just have a fetish for the stuff 

We all know that it is not called that at all but you can call it what you like. Just makes me not really want to read this thread to be honest. The thought of POO isn't a big turn on you know and MAK isn't even producing that! Neither is IPL or NUF or ?? Hang on a sec! No company that I know of that is listed on the ASX does?? Nor have i ever read any news article referring to the fertilizer sector as that and i'm talking about the last few years not 15- 20. Hmm makes you wonder doesn't it.


----------



## Adam A (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Is the australian politician assoc listed on the asx ? 

Cause im pretty sure thats what they produce


----------



## kenny (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Is the australian politician assoc listed on the asx ?
> 
> Cause im pretty sure thats what they produce




 I missed that IPO, AdamA. The PDS would have been a good read. May be they are listed with alternative energy stocks like GeoDynamics for all the hot air they generate! Finally finding a green use for them.

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## champ2003 (28 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kenny said:


> I missed that IPO, AdamA. The PDS would have been a good read. May be they are listed with alternative energy stocks like GeoDynamics for all the hot air they generate! Finally finding a green use for them.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Kenny




AHHH yes i think i know the company that you are talking about now. I think that the hot air has been given another name for it called POO seam methane gas.


----------



## Spineli (29 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This stock has taken an absolute hammering in recent weeks.

Down around 40% from all time highs . Currently trading at 1.69 (2 month low)...plenty $mm are coming off their MC! 

Surely somethings up? Looking forward to the next ann to market.


----------



## Sean K (29 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> So, MC now up to $257m.
> 
> The Wonarah scoping study completed last year had the project economic with RP at $100 tn. It's now around $350.
> 
> ...



I posted this on 8 Apr when MAK was at much higher levels that today. 

Nothing has changed since then except more companies all of a sudden finding RP on their tenament. RP prices haven't changed, they are still $350-400. 

While 'long term' at least one analyst (UBS) has the price dropping to $65, it seems hard to believe the bubble will burst that far, but of course S&D will rule. Right now, MAK are ready to take advantage of the high prices, and with potential revenue of around $1b a year, and an MC now down around $170m, there is 'room to move' up....


----------



## Atma (29 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

most of new supply is capex intensive tho. and the rp discovered are lower grade too. mak has a good grade deposit with potential for higher grades..time will tell. market has punished this one enough. their deposit is jorc compliant. the other guys are not(phosph. aus)


----------



## pattyp (29 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I have no Idea - Just guessing... But this is what I see as the WORST case scenario for our beloved MAK...

-------------------------------------------------
-- MAK 10yr Theoretical DCF --
-- Phosphate Only --
-- NOTE: Mine life longer then 10y --
-------------------------------------------------
Production PA = 1MT x2y, 1.5MT x2y, 2MT x6y (Avg 1.5MT)

Phos. Per Ton = $200 x3y, $180x2y, $160 x2y, $150 x2 (Avg $160)

OPEX Avg Per Ton = $125.00

CAPEX $120m (40% Eq / 60% De)

Debt Repayment Avg $15m PA over 5.5yrs

EBT Avg = $56m PA

Free Cash Flow Avg = $39m PA

Future Dilution +27m shares @ $1.80 = $48m

Future Fully Diluted 135m shares on issue

*Fair Value 10yr = $508m MCap, $3.77ps, PE 9

NPV @ 5% = $316 MCap, $2.34ps, PE 6*
-------------------------------------------------

I think at 175c MAK looks very cheap... 

Especially since most forecasters see Phosphate remaining above $300 at least for 2-4yrs.

Pat


----------



## Sean K (29 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> So, MC now up to $257m.
> 
> The Wonarah scoping study completed last year had the project economic with RP at $100 tn. It's now around $350.
> 
> ...






pattyp said:


> I have no Idea - Just guessing... But this is what I see as the WORST case scenario for our beloved MAK...
> 
> -------------------------------------------------
> -- MAK 10yr Theoretical DCF --
> ...



I agree, it's conservative enough. Risk is Capex/Opex blowout. Just need to add in the 10% claw back thing. And any native title royalties, maybe 3-5%? 

Good work Pat.


----------



## Sean K (29 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Ann out today on Tassie projects is OK, making the tin projects look like they may become economical with current prices, but the Moina comments are very disappointing. I was expecting this to be the next real kicker for MAK, outside of Wonarah developments or Fraser Iron sale...



> 4. MOINA, TASMANIA
> This large skarn deposit hosts fluorspar, magnetite, tin, tungsten and base metal sulphides mineralization. It was anticipated that the results of flotation metallurgical testwork being carried out in Europe would have been available by now. However, the resignation of the supervising metallurgist caused a cessation of those investigations, which had been concentrated upon tungsten recovery.
> 
> The Company will now preferentially examine fluorspar recovery, and is encouraged by the very strong recent prices for it.



What the heck is 'preferentially examine' mean, and what's the plan?


----------



## pattyp (29 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Page 5 of 6
"The company will now preferentially examine fluorspar recovery, and is encouraged by the very strong recent prices for it"

It's interesting that they always leave Fluorspar as an after thought... Not glamorous enough I guess!

I'm betting Fluorspar is the most viable in Tasmania.

Pat

--------------------------------------------------
Pg 9 - MARCH 2008 QUARTERLY REPORT
http://www.minemakers.com.au/documents/qr0803.pdf

"During the Quarter, Minemakers announced that the price of benchmark fluorspar delivered to Europe had risen to from the *US$130/t price of a year earlier to US$315/t*.

Moina is one of Australia’s largest fluorspar deposits and, based on historic drilling, mineralisation potential for an *open cut operation of the 50-60Mt range is considered possible by Minemakers*. At a *3Mtpa processing rate*, Moina could be a significant long term fluorspar and tungsten producer.

Shareholders are reminded that fluorspar is the principal mineral containing fluorine and is the ultimate main source for all fluorine-based chemicals. Accordingly, it is a critical raw material for the production of aluminium metal, as well as refrigeration and air-conditioning. The growth outlook for aluminium, in particular, seems very strong."
--------------------------------------------------


-------------------------------------------------
-- MAK 10yr Theoretical DCF --
-- Fluorspar Only --
-- NOTE: Mine life longer then 10y --
-------------------------------------------------
Production PA = 1.5MT x1y, 2MT x2y, 2.5MT x1y, 3MT x6yr (Avg 2.2MT)

Fluor. Per Ton = $200 x2y, $170 x1y, $160 x1y, $150 x1y, $140 x5y (Avg $143)

OPEX Avg Per Ton = $125.00

CAPEX $200m (30% Eq / 70% De)

Debt Repayment Avg $20m PA over 7.5yrs

EBT Avg = $39m PA

Free Cash Flow Avg = $27m PA

Future Dilution +30m shares @ $2.00 = $60m

Future Fully Diluted 138m shares on issue

Fair Value 10yr = $356m MCap, $2.59ps, PE 9

NPV @ 5% = $236 MCap, $1.72ps, PE 6
-------------------------------------------------


----------



## champ2003 (31 May 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Ann out today on Tassie projects is OK, making the tin projects look like they may become economical with current prices, but the Moina comments are very disappointing. I was expecting this to be the next real kicker for MAK, outside of Wonarah developments or Fraser Iron sale...
> 
> What the heck is 'preferentially examine' mean, and what's the plan?




Kennas,

Sorry but that one has an obvious answer. The way that i took it is exactly as AD said. They will now focus more on Flourspar rather than magnetite, tin, tungsten and base metal sulphides mineralization due to the strong price of Flouspar and it's outlook.

Champ


----------



## gfresh (2 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Minemakers have gone into a trading halt this morning.. 

Looks like it's in relation to a joint venture and 'acquisition rights'. Could be a big one!


----------



## adamim1 (2 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes, its interesting.

I hope it goes all well and takes off. Little bit worried that it has come down this much in anticipation of this announcement. I wonder if someone knows something that we all don't know.


----------



## Sean K (2 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



gfresh said:


> Minemakers have gone into a trading halt this morning..
> 
> Looks like it's in relation to a joint venture and 'acquisition rights'. Could be a big one!



I'm not sure why it would be a 'big one'. :

I do expect the JV to be the finalisation of the Story Creek Tin and Tungstan JV with the Wolf Gang, which has been plodding along for some time. If this is the case, this is great news and probably means that the current assessment of the project is that it's likely to become feasible.

Just need GRR to buy West Southdown now for some more cash in the bank, and some developments at Moina!


----------



## pattyp (2 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I do expect the JV to be the finalisation of the Story Creek Tin and Tungstan JV with the Wolf Gang, which has been plodding along for some time.




CAZ locked up at the same time... Possible Iron Ore Farm-in...?

Will be interesting - will be good for them to either gain some cash, or get someone else to flip the bill for exploration while MAK focus' on Wonarah.

Pat


----------



## Sean K (2 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



pattyp said:


> CAZ locked up at the same time... Possible Iron Ore Farm-in...?
> 
> Will be interesting - will be good for them to either gain some cash, or get someone else to flip the bill for exploration while MAK focus' on Wonarah.
> 
> Pat



Yes, pattyp, could be the case. CAZ indicated 'potential project acquisition'. Perhaps that relates to the 'acquision rights' of the MAK ann? I suppose it could be farm in/JV too....


----------



## adamim1 (2 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Interesting read from legend. (GCR thread)

Lady Annie being described as one of the largest undeveloped phosphate mines in world which is located in the georgina basin. Where as MAK describes wonarah as the largest undeveloped phosphate mine in Australia. Which is located in the georgina basin. So who has got more?


In legends presentation they state that they are going to produce 5 million tonnes per year compared to MAK's 2 million tonnes per year.


----------



## gfresh (2 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Minemakers is JORC.. GCR's is... :hide: 



> Mt Isa Phosphates – Resources Retraction
> 
> Further to GCR’s announcement dated 29 May 2008 regarding its Mt Isa Phosphates Joint Venture with Legend International Holdings Inc (OTCBB: LGDI), in response to a request by ASX, GCR wishes to retract all quoted tonnages and grades of rock phosphate on the joint venture properties, made in GCR’s December and March Quarterly Reports dated 14 January 2008 and 21 April 2008 respectively, its response to ASX’s price query dated 7 May 2008, and its announcements dated 18 December 2007 and 29 May 2008.
> 
> The quoted estimates are pre-JORC Code, and therefore cannot be reported under the ASX Listing Rules.




Lets see whether GCR can actually prove up resources before they get too carried away claiming tonneages...


----------



## adamim1 (3 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Trading Halt lifted this morning

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=


----------



## Sean K (3 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> Trading Halt lifted this morning
> 
> http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=



I didn't even consider buying the clawback was a potential at this point. Especially the way the halt was announced. This was never a 'JV' in my mind. 

Anyway, market likes it for the moment. 

Since most of 'us' think there's some significant longer term potential here, losing a dead partner must be a good thing. Probably makes my thoery of a JV with a Poo producer less likely something management will pursue though.


----------



## Sean K (4 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Great move on the equity control of Wonarah yesterday, but still in a downtrend channel I'm afraid, and now the old support at $2.00 is probably resistance. 

AD is back on Boadroom Radio again discussing the ann. He's gotta be the most regular guest they have there. In addition to the ann he details a visit to the NT last week to talk to ministers, rail and port authorities. And important to me is good discussions with the CLC about land issues. Seems they are on board and the local leaders are very supportive of Wonarahs rapid developent. Looks like 2 years to production isn't out of the question at the moment. 

A link to the interview is through egoil in the Media Centre.


----------



## adamim1 (4 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=

Trading halt again?

JORC announcement.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (4 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> Trading halt again?
> 
> JORC announcement.




This may not be the JORC announcement we've been waiting for ...

"...an announcement in respect to *JORC compliance matters *on previously announced estimates of mineralisation." 

Oh dear, I suspect this announcement is not going to help the sp, but look on the bright side... we may get a good chance to buy more of what we all believe in at a much better price...


----------



## Sean K (4 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



J.B.Nimble said:


> This may not be the JORC announcement we've been waiting for ...
> 
> "...an announcement in respect to *JORC compliance matters *on previously announced estimates of mineralisation."
> 
> Oh dear, I suspect this announcement is not going to help the sp, but look on the bright side... we may get a good chance to buy more of what we all believe in at a much better price...



Yes, doesn't sound too flash does it. Could either be Wonarah or Moina, but you'd expect Wonarah. They couldn't possibly have come up with a revised JORC yet. Surely. Maybe an upgrade?  How could they downgrade it at this stage?  Just have to wait and see I suppose....


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I've been wondering about this halt and it must be in relation to their last couple of anns where they have been stating the JORC of Wonarah. I assume the ASX is not happy with them for some reason, and MAK are required to submit a revised statement under ASX guidelines.


*3 June ann on Clawback purchase*:
Wonarah hosts the largest undeveloped rock phosphate deposit in Australia. Its northern sector alone contains a JORC-compliant inferred estimate of 1.95 billion tonnes at 23% P2O5 at an in-ground grade of 23%. (Refer 2006 Minemakers Prospectus.) Minemakers holds over 2,200km² of prospective ground around Wonarah as granted tenements, and a further 310km² under application.

*3 June amendment:*
Wonarah hosts the largest undeveloped rock phosphate deposit in Australia. Its northern sector alone contains a JORC-compliant inferred estimate of 1.95 billion tonnes at *14.4% P2O5. *(Refer 2006 Minemakers Prospectus.) Minemakers holds over 2,200km² of prospective ground around Wonarah as granted tenements, and a further 310km² under application.


*4 June amendment:*
Wonarah hosts the largest undeveloped rock phosphate deposit in Australia. Its northernsector alone contains a JORC-compliant Inferred *Resource* estimate of 1.95 billion tonnes at 14.4% P2O5. (Refer 2006 Minemakers Prospectus.) Minemakers holds over 2,200km² of prospective ground around Wonarah as granted tenements, and a further 310km² under application.

I have bolded and underlined the changes.

The correct figures should be:
1.95Bt@14.4% and
72Mt@23%

I assume the ASX wants them to get the wording correct here, or possibly make them go back to the 72Mt figure for some reason. 

Whatever the case, I think it's just a minor point in regard to the deposit and nothing sinister. What confirms it to me is the Boardroom Radio interview just yesterday where everything was full steam ahead. No change to any of the fundamentals and viability. Mining in 2 years!  I hope....


----------



## adamim1 (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

hmmm..

I see what your saying. But i dont think it is that. Why put a trading halt on for? They have been talking about these figures for ages, why now go on trading halt to figure out wording....

Has to be something different.


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> hmmm..
> 
> I see what your saying. But i dont think it is that. Why put a trading halt on for? They have been talking about these figures for ages, why now go on trading halt to figure out wording....
> 
> Has to be something different.



hmmmm, yes, you are right I think. Why go into a halt just to respond to an ASX query? Now you've made me nervous again.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Also interesting that they have halted until Tuesday - a longish halt?? Suggestive to me that they have been pulled up, done what they had to, and are now arguing their case before agreeing to make an announcement they would prefer not to make...? Maybe I am reading too much in to this...


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



J.B.Nimble said:


> Also interesting that they have halted until Tuesday - a longish halt?? Suggestive to me that they have been pulled up, done what they had to, and are now arguing their case before agreeing to make an announcement they would prefer not to make...? Maybe I am reading too much in to this...



No, I think you may be right somewhat JBN. I think most concerns from punters at the moment is that they will downgrade it or something making it less viable and negatively effect the sp. However, everyone must remember that there has been heaps of work done on this deposit (IMC/AKD/RIO) and that the size and grade should be NO change after further drilling to satisfy current JORC standards. Maybe I'm just trying to settle myself. I hate these types of halts!


----------



## pattyp (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I just posted this on another forum... My opinion...

------------------------------------------------------------
"maybe but most likely wonarah, my feeling its a clarification of resource they stated in the last announcement... or it could be an upgrade or downgrade of the rio estimate"

Its only likely wonarah because that's all anyone focus' on...

So far they have corrected their "Announcements" on market... I cant understand why they would take 3-days to do this again.

Also its WAY too early for drill results... surely...?

Fluorspar results were due months ago. MAK already have historical data that proves the reserves, but not to today's JORC standards. They were doing more tests in Europe so that they can finally certify it.

Time-lines and yesterdays wording lead me to think its the fluorspar...

Listen to the Interview
http://www.brr.com.au/event/MAK/2097/38107/wmp/xdcvmmm947

I also had email correspondence with AD 3-weeks ago and I was specifically after the Fluorspar outcomes... He said soon, within weeks he hoped...

My odds are 70% Fluorspar, 30% Phosphate...

Exciting stuff - I don't think its gonna be bad news.

Pat
------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## blum (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I don't think it's a longish halt - remember, Monday is the Queen's birthday in NSW, so ASX will be closed, won't it?


----------



## adamim1 (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



J.B.Nimble said:


> Also interesting that they have halted until Tuesday - a longish halt?? Suggestive to me that they have been pulled up, done what they had to, and are now arguing their case before agreeing to make an announcement they would prefer not to make...? Maybe I am reading too much in to this...




 I don't think that would be a case to stop trading. There are ASX rules governing trading halts.


----------



## YELNATS (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



pattyp said:


> My odds are 70% Fluorspar, 30% Phosphate...
> 
> Exciting stuff - I don't think its gonna be bad news.
> 
> ...




You're a breath of fresh air, Patty, hope you're right despite the uncertainty of the wording of the announcement.


----------



## crisstoff (5 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Not sure if this has been posted before, but has a 12 month target of $ 3.26 

http://www.bby.com.au/internet/research/daily/PDF/mak.pdf


----------



## Sean K (6 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



crisstoff said:


> Not sure if this has been posted before, but has a 12 month target of $ 3.26
> 
> http://www.bby.com.au/internet/research/daily/PDF/mak.pdf



Thanks for posting this, I haven't seen it before.

$3.26 sounds ok to me, but I'll take the $9.00 as well. 



> Recommendation: BUY
> 
> Investment Summary
> 
> We initiate coverage on Minemakers Limited (MAK) with a BUY recommendation and a 12 month price target of A$3.26/sh based on our conservative project timetable. If MAK is able to deliver the project within its indicated timeframe the DCF valuation would be over A$9.00



.


----------



## adamim1 (6 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

If this information is good today. I feel we might see it run. Just looking at all the buys coming in... they're higher in price then the sells.

Thats if the trading halt ends today.


----------



## phong_01 (6 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I think they will announce on Tuesday next week when there are more people trading.  There are not many people trading today.

I believe that it will be a good news.  The management must be very confident about the business before they bought the 10% claw back right.  So it must be good news.

Another company (Bonapart Diamond, BON), that Andrew Drummond is also Director, is also in trading halt today.  Not sure if it relates to the MAK trading halt?


----------



## Sean K (6 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



phong_01 said:


> I think they will announce on Tuesday next week when there are more people trading.  There are not many people trading today.
> 
> I believe that it will be a good news.  The management must be very confident about the business before they bought the 10% claw back right.  So it must be good news.
> 
> Another company (Bonapart Diamond, BON), that Andrew Drummond is also Director, is also in trading halt today.  Not sure if it relates to the MAK trading halt?



I'm not sure if the ASX would approve with an ann being delayed due to the quatity of people 'trading'. 

I agree management must be confident with the claw back buy, and it looks to be a bargain. Hints that the news will not be bad, but not necessarily good. 

BON halt has nothing to do with MAK JORCs... 

However, thanks for pointing them out. Looks like they're jumping on the Poo bandwagon too. Must check.


----------



## Sean K (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Can't use the 1.95b tn @ 14% (even though it's most probably there) but can use the 72 mt @ 23%.

No change in future prospects here.

Except whoever cocked up the reporting back in assessing the project needs a shalacking. 

Carry on.


----------



## adamim1 (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The Sp went from going to open at 2.14 to now sitting at 1.80.

Might be a good opportunity to buy more.


----------



## Sean K (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> The Sp went from going to open at 2.14 to now sitting at 1.80.
> 
> Might be a good opportunity to buy more.



Could be. Doesn't effect the economics of this, or the valuations that BBY put on it. Planning to mine 3Mt per annum so with the 72Mt they have a mine life of over 20 years....By that time RP will be back at $50 probably. I think the market might be going into a corrective period though so maybe there will be other opportunities, but who knows. Amusing seeing fear take over the the brain in regard to this ann. Amusing if it wasn't money disappearing.... Wouldn't be surprised to see those with deep pockets taking advantage of this drop. The potential for $1b +/- cashflow in 2 years is still there.


----------



## adamim1 (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Chain reaction. 

Interesting to see how far it actually falls. I can't imagine that all these people read a 39 page report this quickly.


----------



## kenny (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Where can I access the 39 page report, adamim1? Etrade doesn't show me any MAK announcements for today.

Thanks,

Kenny


----------



## derty (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kenny you can find it on their website here:
http://www.minemakers.com.au/downlo...ficationofHistoricalResourceEstimateFinal.pdf


----------



## tigerboi (10 June 2008)

*ReESKTOP EXPLORATION...MAK GETTING ITS PANTS PULLED DOWN*

Very dangerous sending this one up 1000% on the desktop conceptual targets,love that one a la fdl & mxr...

mak now getting spanked a beauty,just shows you 100% nothing like a jorc & rio did pass it up...tb

report is at asx.com


----------



## Atma (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

tigerboi- rio passed it up but wasn't RP price about $40/t. With RP similar tracking to oil, i doubt RP price is going down soon. RP price is $400/t FOB.

mak only need to produce not even 1/2 of 1 mT to justify current market cap really assuming some capex of about $150m. They may get lucky as the Direct ship prospect will go well and cut down development time and maybe $10/t in costs of mining.


----------



## derty (10 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

tigerboi - there is quite a difference between drawing some lines about some mag highs and inferring +1Bt FeO and a non-JORC compliant in-house RIO resource based on physical drill holes.

In section 2.4 of the RIO report they state that the resource in non-JORC compliant. There are quite a few ways in which a resource can be non-JORC compliant and some of these (as TTR and GXY have found out) can be as simple as not using the right drilling method or not collecting QA/QC sample data. 

Either way the north Wonarah phosphate mineralisation is neither conceptual or desktop.


----------



## Sean K (11 June 2008)

*Re: DESKTOP EXPLORATION...MAK GETTING ITS PANTS PULLED DOWN*



tigerboi said:


> Very dangerous sending this one up 1000% on the desktop conceptual targets,love that one a la fdl & mxr...



Ditto the above TB. Very dangerous making assumptions on a stock you obviously haven't read into enough. We all do it from time to time of course.


Having had more of a think about this issue, I can understand the market punishing them for getting this wrong. It's on the back of quite a few errors or mismanagement. While some were out of their control, it's all adding up. Slow to win drill rigs for Fraser Iron, errors in the assays, failing to win rigs for Tassie Tin, errors in the Tungstan assays, delays in the additional drill targets from the EM survey of Franklin and then changing it to 'non core', Moina polymetalic metallurgy delays and then resignation of lead consultant, and changing the plan to concentrate on Flourite, and now all this fuss about what can be claimed as JORC'd. Geez...and that's off the top of my head...

Obviouly, I'm still a bull on them getting Wonarah over the line, pending RP prices. If they stay above $200t it's a great money spinner, over $300t and it's fantastic. The BBY analysis giving them a 1 yr target of $3.60 to best case $9.00 remains extant.   

It's just sentiment effecting them at the minute, which they MUST fix!

Chart wise, lets all hope that support between these support levels holds up...


----------



## Sean K (11 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

BBY trying to reassure clients and actually telling them to buy more.



> Minemakers Limited
> 20 years plus for the “Big MAK”
> 
> 10 June
> ...




http://www.bby.com.au/internet/research/daily/PDF/mak.pdf

Makes me feel a little warmer inside.

Just.


----------



## adamim1 (11 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> BBY trying to reassure clients and actually telling them to buy more.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hopefully they're working on getting that northern area a JORC. Once that is done, we will probably see new confidence in MAK. If i had money to spend i would probably buy more.

I still feel worried though.


----------



## Sean K (11 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> Hopefully they're working on getting that northern area a JORC. Once that is done, we will probably see new confidence in MAK. If i had money to spend i would probably buy more.
> 
> I still feel worried though.



Did they mention anything about the current drill program going north? I don't think so. I think it's just the high grade area and Arawarra (or however it's spelt), in order to sort out metallugical studies and see if they can start on Arawarra at the earliest to start generating cash. While the early hype was around a $57b IGV, the facts are they are only going to start mining something like 1mt pa and step it up to 3mt. And if the supply demand curve demands it they could expand that a bit. 

On $400 a tn RP, potential cash flow $1b +.

Current MC, about $100m.

The correction we had to have has been had perhaps. 

Unless they **** up some more figures, or drilling results come back as dust.


----------



## tigerboi (11 June 2008)

*Re:SEEN THE REPORT*

Hey kennas ive read the report & what im saying is this...there is nothing like a jorc,well aware of the 4x rise in prices & that was the reason rio passed it up,long way to go before mak get the stuff out of the ground,notwithstanding the logistics of i believe of hauling the 2mt by roadtrain.

fyi i was asked to do a ball park figure on the transport contract side of the operation many months ago...tb

2mt by road 240kms at 100t per trip,costly then & more so now...

speaking of phosphate did anyone see the sbs report on morroco's illegal occupation of western sahara were ipl also get their stuff?


----------



## adamim1 (11 June 2008)

*Re: SEEN THE REPORT*



tigerboi said:


> Hey kennas ive read the report & what im saying is this...there is nothing like a jorc,well aware of the 4x rise in prices & that was the reason rio passed it up,long way to go before mak get the stuff out of the ground,notwithstanding the logistics of i believe of hauling the 2mt by roadtrain.
> 
> fyi i was asked to do a ball park figure on the transport contract side of the operation many months ago...tb
> 
> ...





 I think i saw figures that they could produce the RP for $100/t. Pretty good if RP prices are 400/t.

Lets just remember that they're in the same positions as they were 6 weeks ago.. Only 6 weeks closer to production.


----------



## grace (11 June 2008)

*Re: SEEN THE REPORT*



tigerboi said:


> speaking of phosphate did anyone see the sbs report on morroco's illegal occupation of western sahara were ipl also get their stuff?




I think I posted a link earlier in the piece about this where the mine workers are watched with automatic machine guns!!!  I believe it has been happening for some 30 years or so (don't quote me on the timeframe though).

 Do you have a link to the sbs report? Thanks Grace.


----------



## pattyp (11 June 2008)

*Re: SEEN THE REPORT*



tigerboi said:


> Hey kennas ive read the report & what im saying is this...there is nothing like a jorc




They have a JORC... 72MT @ 23% done in 2001...

I'll simplify the latest Announcement so that we all understand it...

"The 1955MT @ 14%, that we were NOT going to even think about mining for at least 15yrs, is NOT JORC... But the 72MT @ 23% which we ALWAYS intended to mine and sell IS JORC and we will continue the project as Planned. Sorry ASX for the mix up".

For days now, on so many forums and sites, I have read so much un-research garbage about this "JORC" thing... I am absolutely amazed how many have an "Expert" opinion without having made any effort to understand the project.

See extracts below...

Cheers,
Pat


----------



## ronski456 (11 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

From a Technical Analysis view does anyone have a strong opinion where MAK is heading in the next 3-5 months?

It looks very (Weinstein) Stage 4 downtrend to me, and with a H+S projection to 1.50.

A reasonable target to buy into?

Any opinions out there re: Fib retracements?

Cheers,
Ronski


----------



## J.B.Nimble (11 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The announcement read pretty much the way I expected and the market reacted in a similarly predictable fashion. The announcement obviously rattled some holders in to panic selling but given the red ink across much of the market this week, I think we can consider the sp drop a reasonably mild response. The faint of heart have probably been shaken out and we can now consolidate and build in a more orderly fashion...

As Kennas and Pat rightly point out the tonnes beyond 72 million are nice to have but not terribly important at this stage. The risks with this project are the future price of rock phosphate, and the cost of getting the product to market.

On future price trends, we can all speculate about increased demand due to bio-fuels (I wouldn't want to build my retirement plans around that), many more mouths to feed (I live in China - I'm a believer), increasing meat consumption in developing countries (I eat in China - I'm a believer), diminished crop outputs due to climatic events (I'm a believer). 

Against these demand factors we have to weigh up the supply side factors - mines nearing end of life (haven't heard anything on this score), brownfield expansions (proceeding like crazy, one would imagine, and will be first to market), and greenfield projects (remember when MAK was the only major undeveloped phosphate deposit in the Universe or whatever the hype was - how many are there now?). 

I'm inclined to think the RP price will ease in the medium term. This will have little impact on the well funded brownfield expansions but it will put the squeeze on many of the greenfield projects. Will MAK make it? Personally, I think it all boils down to time getting the project up and running. Maybe there is room for everyone who thinks they have a bit of phosphate lying around but that would be wishful thinking. When the prices start easing, a lot of these projects will struggle for funding even if their economics turn out to be marginally better than MAK. First in, best dressed... In this respect MAK are in an enviable position. With so much data and groundwork behind them, they lead the Australian pack (with the possible exception of GCR). If they can quickly prove up a DSO resource then we will all be smiling... 

Then of course there is the logistics question as posed by by TB. Part road, part rail is considerably better than the all road scenario that Rio faced. That is a positive for the project as the previous "economic above 100USD/T" comments probably reflected road transport costs. It could be argued that everyone is facing energy cost increases and therefore it is a neutral argument, however some of the brownfield expansions will no doubt be exploiting existing slurry pieplines and/or conveyor systems - we can only hope they are capacity constrained already. Once agin the brownfield developments will have the edge over greenfield. If MAK can just get this project started while RP prices are high, then they can work on proving up the other 1.9 billion tonnes to justify spending a bit of that lovely cashflow on a slurry pipeline, conveyor system or rail branch to avoid TBs trucking woes ... 

I still feel very positive about MAK but time to production is critical...


----------



## tigerboi (12 June 2008)

*Re:GREAT POST NIMBLE...*



J.B.Nimble said:


> The announcement read pretty much the way I expected and the market reacted in a similarly predictable fashion. The announcement obviously rattled some holders in to panic selling but given the red ink across much of the market this week, I think we can consider the sp drop a reasonably mild response. The faint of heart have probably been shaken out and we can now consolidate and build in a more orderly fashion...
> 
> As Kennas and Pat rightly point out the tonnes beyond 72 million are nice to have but not terribly important at this stage. The risks with this project are the future price of rock phosphate, and the cost of getting the product to market.
> 
> ...





Very good post,logistically the project will get done...i did some number crunching some months ago on the basis of mine to tenant creek 240kms for 2mt,to get a guide on transport costs by road ive estimated AGO to get just 1mt out of pardoo to pt headland 150kms round trip at $1.80 a litre for fuel at approx $16 per tonne...while the prices are x4 atm,labour costs & fuel are chomping away at potential profits.

as you say time to production is critical,that is a very astute comment..conditions can change in the meantime..

have you read the rio tinto report?...tb


----------



## J.B.Nimble (13 June 2008)

*Re: GREAT POST NIMBLE...*



tigerboi said:


> ...have you read the rio tinto report?...tb




I've only seen the fragments in the latest announcement. I am not sure if there is any more of the Rio report in the public domain. While it didn't provide anything much to give support to MAK's belief in higher grade DSO potential at Arruwurra, nor did it rule this possibility out. The independent Geologists report probably gives a bit more of a pointer in this respect... I will be looking forward to the drilling results - not necessarily make or break for the project but good results here would give it the fast track boost that we are looking for...


----------



## Sean K (13 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Welcome update on Wonarah drilling, pointing towards very good drilling results. 

Hopefully this news improves short term sentiment and we have a steady recovery. 

Enough consolidation for now please Mr Market! 

More detail on ann to follow.


----------



## tigerboi (13 June 2008)

*ReRILLING IS THE KEY TO MAK*



J.B.Nimble said:


> I've only seen the fragments in the latest announcement. I am not sure if there is any more of the Rio report in the public domain. While it didn't provide anything much to give support to MAK's belief in higher grade DSO potential at Arruwurra, nor did it rule this possibility out. The independent Geologists report probably gives a bit more of a pointer in this respect... I will be looking forward to the drilling results - not necessarily make or break for the project but good results here would give it the fast track boost that we are looking for...




Ive got no doubt that the drilling will decide this 100% & in the time before mining the labour & fuel costs need to cool off as it is going to be very expensive to haul 2mt by road at possibly $2.00+ a litre of fuel...tb


----------



## adamim1 (13 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The announcement:

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=


----------



## Sean K (13 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> The announcement:
> 
> http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=



Sentiment really down on this at the moment. That ann was very good news and confirms Arawarra will be DSO (spec reading 39%), open dig, and be able to be mined close to MAKs very very short timetable. Plus, they'll be adding in tonnage with the RP under the current resource within the Main Zone. Why would you sell?  Sorry if that sounded like a ramp. LOL


----------



## Adam A (13 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Positive report imho 

Drilling is continuing with further results due in june/july. I liked the high percentage hits in the cores,and the possibility of dso. 

In regards to the cost of trucking the phosphate, what i like to remember is that as our costs increase, so do the costs of our major competitors and the distance from Morrocco to Asia is far greater than Maks


----------



## paperclip (13 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

http://www.brr.com.au/getpodcast/46951/event.mp3

Latest board room radio interview

cheers PC  

ps. LT holder here, as i'm a believer in the phosaphate and food shortage long term crisis story


----------



## Atma (13 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

phosphate is prevalent throughout the tenement

they will need to selectively mine the higher grade(20-25%) areas and use simple beneficiation to 30%. I estimate there are a few kilometres worth of 20-25% areas so there is no real issue with resource. This should be a good one when they get some JORCs to the market indicating good tonnages at 20-25% level.


----------



## paperclip (14 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

one square kilometer of 5meters thick phosphate is somewhere between 10 and 12.5 million tonnes , 3 to 4 years mining for MAK. all sounds a little to easy ATM.
one would think they'd be able to find a spot out there with good enough grades for very near DSO to start the ball rolling while they get the next area ready 

cheers PC


----------



## Sean K (14 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Anyone wondering about the comments regarding the grades they have produced at Arruwurra, by XRF.



> Based on the field XRF assaying, mineralised intersections can be as high as 39% P205. Marketed rock phosphate usually assays 28-32% P205 and the XRF assaying indicates that this grade is being attained in the principal target,




However, go to the Stage 1 drilling results in figure 2 and the highest grade I see there is 4m @ 27%. 

I do note that in the pictures of the assays that they are indicating the grades in the mudstone to be over 30%. So, while some portions of the assays are quite high %, overall they're below 27%. That's not DSO. Is it?



Someone sort me out please. Thanks.


----------



## Mackky (14 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Kennas,

I am a long term follower of this thread, and have just joined. I hold a lot of mak/mako.

Imo, yesterdays announcement was outstanding. I never expect Arruwurra to look so good after the first drill run.

Firstly regarding Wonarrah. The announcement has addressed all doubt I had regarding the deposit. Most importantly it looks like continuity of grade is good.

Secondly Arruwurra is huge. 4 km square with 10 m cover and 12 km square with 12 m cover. Total of 16 km square with shallow cover. If 1 km square 5m thick is 10-12.5 mt then after this first drill run arruwurra could well have potential to be a 100-150mt (shallow areas only) deposit at a close to 20% phosphate.  
Within this large mineralized area at Arruwurra the aim is to map a bit of DSO phosphate to get mining started early. Even if they don't find DSO at Arruwurra it is very likely mining will start there not Wonarah(less cover). AD has said there is a good chance of there being DSO at Arruwurra (intersections to 39%), he has not just made this up.  I needed to read the report a number of times for all the good information in it to sink in. The intercepts in the report(map) are combined intercepts of all the phosphate above 10%? in the hole. I would suspect that at least one or more of the holes would have section(s) of 30% plus(approx 2-3 metre wide in it). That is all we need to have high DSO potential. I suspect the intercept of 9m at 25% would contain contain DSO grade for the mudstone phosphate layer.  Stage II drilling at a finer resolution will confirm if we have DSO or not and provide a JORC estimate for Arruwurra.
Exciting times ahead, feeling very comfortable holding this now as  imo more risk has just been taken away. There is just so much good info in the announcement(and interview) it is worth reading it multiple times for it all to sink in.

Cheers

ps latest fertilzer work report mentions DAP producers are will see a another large increase in the price of rock phosphate.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (14 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Mackky said:


> ....The intercepts in the report(map) are combined intercepts of all the phosphate above 10%? in the hole. I would suspect that at least one or more of the holes would have section(s) of 30% plus(approx 2-3 metre wide in it)...




I'm not so sure about that. The numbers on the map look like composite grades across the mineralised interval - the interval numbers tie up with the average 5m thickness and 10 to 20m of cover statements. The grades shown on the core photos suggest the 30 - 35% numbers are spot measurements. I like the announcement but it is a bit short on data. I guess we will have to wait for lab assay data rather than the field XRF work.


----------



## champ2003 (14 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



J.B.Nimble said:


> Mackky said:
> 
> 
> > ....The intercepts in the report(map) are combined intercepts of all the phosphate above 10%? in the hole. I would suspect that at least one or more of the holes would have section(s) of 30% plus(approx 2-3 metre wide in it)...
> ...




The thing that i personally like about the announcement is the fact that it doesn't matter if they achieve DSO or not because which ever way that i look at it that announcement has just added substantial value to the project with lower risks attached to it now.

Great potential for higher grades all around Wonarah and Arruwurra than previously thought possible with an extention of the size of both deposits.

All that this means is lower OPEX costs, greater profit's and a higher share price.

Full steam ahead now.

Go MAK! You Beauty!

Champ


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> The thing that i personally like about the announcement is the fact that it doesn't matter if they achieve DSO or not because which ever way that i look at it that announcement has just added substantial value to the project with lower risks attached to it now.



Yes, I think this an important thing Champ. Would be nice if they can target the better graded area closer to surface for initial production. The ability for a straight dig will certainly reduce Opex. Still, I am personally disappointed by the overall low grades. I was hoping for high grade DSO 30% ave with 10-20m intersections. Perhaps I was dreaming. 

Whatever the case, the market liked it, and lets hope for some follow through. 

All things been equal, fair value going into production is a much higher MC. I can't see any major issues in BBY's conservative view of $3.26 in 12 months.


----------



## Speewha (17 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello I have just joined Aussie Stock (thanks Joe) and this my first attempt at a post. Glad to see there are a few members punting on MAK. Can anybody tell me if they are planning to treat the ore to fertilizer grade or just ship it as it comes? Acid is hard to get and expensive just now, anybody know the difference in price between fertiliser grade and raw rocks. Have enjoyed reading all the posts on this and other stocks, high standard of comments and some wise words, certainly better and more professional than I have seen elsewhere.


----------



## Sean K (20 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Hello I have just joined Aussie Stock (thanks Joe) and this my first attempt at a post. Glad to see there are a few members punting on MAK. Can anybody tell me if they are planning to treat the ore to fertilizer grade or just ship it as it comes? Acid is hard to get and expensive just now, anybody know the difference in price between fertiliser grade and raw rocks. Have enjoyed reading all the posts on this and other stocks, high standard of comments and some wise words, certainly better and more professional than I have seen elsewhere.



Anything under 28% will have to be beneficiated to a saleable product. But what 'fertiliser' grade is I do not know. Perhaps you mean just the difference between DSO (above 28%) and lower grade stuff?

Chart wise it looks like the down trend could be over with a short term double bottom at $1.75 ish, but it's tenuous. Should be good support between $1.75 ish and 1.30 ish. $2.00 formed up as considerable resistance. 

I think there will be some pressure on the sp during June as some people who bought in well above $2.00 take capital losses. Not sure why you would sell for a capital gain at this time though...

Would like some updates on Tassie projects and a buyer for Fraser to appear. Come on GRR why wouldn't you want West Southdown?


----------



## pattyp (20 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Chart wise it looks like the down trend could be over with a short term double bottom at $1.75 ish, but it's tenuous. Should be good support between $1.75 ish and 1.30 ish. $2.00 formed up as considerable resistance.




Hi Kennas - Here is one i did earlier... Pretty close to your concept... Even volumes + time-scale look good for this scenario...

One of the better bottoms I've seen MAK draw up lately...

-----------------------------------
Extract:
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm
The inverted left shoulder should be accompanied by an increase in volume. The inverted head should be made on lighter volume. The rally from the head however, should show greater volume than the rally from the left shoulder. Ultimately, the inverted right shoulder should register the lightest volume of all. When the market then rallies through the neckline, a big increase in volume should be seen.)
2nd Ref: http://www.chartpatterns.com/invtdheadandshoulderschrts.htm
-----------------------------------


----------



## kenny (20 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Nice chart Pat,

Wonder if it's too much to hope for a replay of RWD's recent obedience to your charting? 

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## pattyp (20 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kenny said:


> Nice chart Pat,
> 
> Wonder if it's too much to hope for a replay of RWD's recent obedience to your charting?
> 
> ...




LoL - Kenny... We can only hope 

Generally speaking, you can only spell fluke one way...

Still, MAK is a VERY bogy chart and I would NOT day-trade off it.

Long and Strong - Good Luck to us all... 

Pat


----------



## kenny (20 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hope is right Pat. the cornerstone of every trading strategy.

<waits for tech to come and flame me> 

I agree MAK would be tricky to daytrade.

Cheers,

Kenny

[Waiting for a second bite of RWD cherry]


----------



## Speewha (21 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Brett

Thank you for your enquiry.  Yes, we do intend to beneficiate the ore we mine up to the usual commercial grades of +28% P205.  The current high price for Rock Phosphate does pertain to that beneficiated material.  We hope that we may be able to locate some sub-areas in the deposit where we can produce direct shipping ore that will not need beneficiating, but time will tell on this.

Thanks and Cheers

Andrew Drummond
Managing Director

MINEMAKERS LIMITED
Level 1, 46 Ord Street, West Perth 6005
PO Box 1704, West Perth 6872

Ph:  +61 8 9264 7000
Fax: +61 8 9264 7099
www.minemakers.com.au

Above is a copy of the reply received from MAK in answer to a question which I posed on this thread earlier this week, not sure if will be of interest to anybody as you all seem very clued in, but as kennas went to the trouble to post a reply to my question  (Thanks) thought would post it just in case it is of interest. 

Regards


----------



## Sean K (21 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Hi Brett
> 
> Thank you for your enquiry.  Yes, we do intend to beneficiate the ore we mine up to the usual commercial grades of +28% P205.  The current high price for Rock Phosphate does pertain to that beneficiated material.  We hope that we may be able to locate some sub-areas in the deposit where we can produce direct shipping ore that will not need beneficiating, but time will tell on this.
> 
> ...



Thanks for posting this. AD is one of the only MDs I know who actually replies to emails. I think the rest of us have to get over the DSO certainty in the short term and just see it as a possibility that will add significant upside. We do not need a DSO deposit here for mining to begin in 2 - 3 years. What Arrawurra may provide by the looks however, is an ore body closer to surface and a free dig. That will be a tremendous advantage to getting to the ore more quickly and reduce opex. Thanks again, kennas


----------



## ithatheekret (21 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I was chatting with an associate yesterday , we were talking about IPL , the gist of the debate was whether IPL could sufficiently move into an acquisition mode and take out a giant , ie . ORI , then in the calculations , we also opined that it could afford to take up MAK too , if it could raise the funds in the market with an issue .

Whilst it was just a bouncing of ideas that could be done, I actually think it might become an eventuality at some stage , whether they could get it past the regulator is another thing ..............


----------



## Sean K (21 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ithatheekret said:


> Whilst it was just a bouncing of ideas that could be done, I actually think it might become an eventuality at some stage , whether they could get it past the regulator is another thing ..............



IPL staff might be chatting about it too. Whether it's the best option is another thing. And, do they need more supply? Are there any other closer and cheaper options for them? No se. MAK is probably the closest to providing a resource base though. Interesting to ponder, especially for MAK holders. Although some would probably prefer they take it to production themselves. More risk but more reward. I've always thought they could do with a partner on this. Both for technical experience and finance.


----------



## adamim1 (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

man, MAK seems to be in free fall at the moment.

Anyone got some chart analysis? It just about halved in value since April.


----------



## Sean K (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



adamim1 said:


> man, MAK seems to be in free fall at the moment.
> 
> Anyone got some chart analysis? It just about halved in value since April.






kennas said:


> Chart wise it looks like the down trend could be over with a short term double bottom at $1.75 ish, but it's tenuous. Should be good support between $1.75 ish and 1.30 ish ish. $2.00 formed up as considerable resistance.
> 
> I think there will be some pressure on the sp during June as some people who bought in well above $2.00 take capital losses. Not sure why you would sell for a capital gain at this time though...




No change from this, except the double bottom was too tenuous. 

Lower support at $1.25/30 ish to hold hopefully. 

It's MC to revenue potential (worst case) will become pretty compelling around those levels, if not around here.

Unless RP prices go back to sub $200 overnight.


----------



## Adam A (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

All indications from my own research are that rp prices will go up in the future

MAK certainly been hit hard from its highs,although nothings really changed from its future potential, if any thing, it seems to be progressing nicely..

I guess it all depends on where you bought in? any thing over $2.00 and ouch! especially if your short term, long term  i think this will only be a blip. 

all inmho


----------



## Sean K (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> All indications from my own research are that rp prices will go up in the future



Adam, I disagree soley on the exponential rise in poo prices. That sort of rise is unsustainable for ANY product. And the harder they rise, the harder they fall. Be cautious.


----------



## Adam A (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Normally id agree,

but this time its different, ha, ha

Fertilizer demand is still rising as well as oil 

In my opinion  and mine only i see another increase, before back to todays rp prices, at which MAK is still potentially a highly profitable (if all goes according to plan) proposition  

But yeah, your right, the market is the true indicator,and although only small turn over, its looking sick, frightining to think of all the stop losses waiting to be hit


----------



## kenny (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> All indications from my own research are that rp prices will go up in the future
> 
> MAK certainly been hit hard from its highs,although nothings really changed from its future potential, if any thing, it seems to be progressing nicely..
> 
> ...




Very hard to think too long term in this sort of market. Do you think there's been a decoupling between the price of RP and MAK?

Or just a consequence of the "tax loss selling" phenomena so widely touted this time of year?

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## Sean K (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kenny said:


> Very hard to think too long term in this sort of market. Do you think there's been a decoupling between the price of RP and MAK?
> 
> Or just a consequence of the "tax loss selling" phenomena so widely touted this time of year?
> 
> ...



Kenny, 

I think a combination of a few factors. 

Firstly, some people have got on this very early, pre RP explosion, and have taken profits. For example, I held 300K heads and 200K oppies in mid 07. I would have been an idiot not to take some profits on the way up. Others have been doing the same out of common sence.

Now, there has been so much hype surrounding the sector that traders have got involved and artificially inflayed prices above current value. It's now coming back to real current value, whatever that is.

Yes, some tax loss selling, by those suckered in to the 'this is going to $80 next week' crap.

And then, the taxi drivers just passing by who have their heads stuck up their arses. Go to HC for a full low down. 

This is still spec!

The investment world is a moving feast, and NO ONE is ever correct 100% on the time.

Rant over..



Kennas


----------



## Adam A (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kenny 

It ran so hard for most of the year a pull back was inevitable, must admit thou didnt think we would see these prices again.

However last few weeks price dropping on low turnover so im not overly concerned.

My trading plan is to hold to production or unless rp prices collapses so i probably have a different perception to say a trader.

In regards to tax lose selling, read an interesting article saying that after many years of great returns this year will see an increase in folk taking losses,

Would have to effect the market i would think, The dow dropping so much wont help either. all imho


----------



## kenny (27 June 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Kennas & Adam,

I agree about the prudence of taking profits. That's why I still have funds earmarked to get back into MAK. Trigger finger getting itchy while I wait and see whether the $1.50 - $1.60 support holds.

Like you, Adam, I didn't expect to see these levels again without any significant stock specific event. Market wobbles and the allure of changing "hot" sectors like oil, coal and iron ore can do that I guess.

Kennas, I've never actually visited HC. Should I? I get more than enough bright ideas and thought provoking posts here at ASF. I find it hard to place a less than rubbery fair value for MAK these days. I must be distracted by the hype. I can't even estimate the cost of beneficiating the surface stuff which has to impact the bottom line even before escalating transport costs.

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Golly, been a tough run for anyone who got into this too late, and have been prepared to sit on the potential fundamentals. Hope you are vindicated longer term. 

I wonder if we can expect some tax loss selling to stop now we're in a new FY? There had to be some in there, but how much? I suppose some spec money has just been moving around the sector too. 

The reason I'm holding on at the moment is that MAK are the furthest advanced in the Poo sector and while a lot of specs may peg some ground and make claims about potential tonnage they are way behind the eightball. The fertiliser plays need to start getting stuff out of the ground to take advantage of current prices, and MAK is at least one to maybe three years ahead of the rest. (Happy for any disagreements). While there will be inevitable corrections (eeeek) the fundamental potential should surface here. Unless we're all taxi drivers with our heads up our arses. 

Good article in the Australian this am for the poo sector with BHPs young turk Kloppers ramping Potash.


*BHP to plough $10bn into fertilisers*

Matt Chambers | June 30, 2008

BHP Billiton chief executive Marius Kloppers has unveiled long-term plans to spend up to $US10 billion ($10.4 billion) moving into fertilisers in an attempt to benefit from growing global food demand amid limited farming land.

Mr Kloppers, speaking in London last week, said BHP believed agricultural commodities were set to experience the same growth in prices as metals have and that the miner planned to capitalise on this by becoming a major player in Canadian potash, used to make fertiliser. 

"We've got an absolutely world-class resource in potash in Canada, which was based on a view taken that the agricultural commodities would go in the same direction as the more metals-orientated minerals," Mr Kloppers told a London meeting of the Melbourne Mining Club. 

"We bought the assets for not a lot of money and they have the real opportunity that, perhaps with upside, we could invest billions, perhaps $US10 billion over the next decades, and take them into a very, very significant producer of potash," he said, adding the asset had the potential to produce for several decades. 

BHP last month agreed to spend $US282 million buying out its 25 per cent partner in potash ground in Saskatchewan. 


Hey Kloppers! Look over here, between TC and Mt Isa, lots of poo for you, and going cheap! LOL 


Chart wise, woof. Been a steady sell off for two and a half months, but now in a support zone between $1.25 ish and $1.75 ish. 



kennas said:


> Chart wise it looks like the down trend could be over with a short term double bottom at $1.75 ish, but it's tenuous. Should be good support between $1.75 ish and 1.30 ish. $2.00 formed up as considerable resistance.
> 
> I think there will be some pressure on the sp during June as some people who bought in well above $2.00 take capital losses. Not sure why you would sell for a capital gain at this time though...




Must be a bottom somewhere....


----------



## Speewha (1 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers Knocking on the Door ?*

Yes I agree hang in there is the best option with this one. Noticed yesterday lots of small transactions, at one stage we had the one share offered for sale scenario again. Somebody who does not pay brokerage on each transaction I assume.  Could it be that someone wants to make a large play is trying to get the price down?


----------



## gfresh (1 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Would be disappointing to see this one gobbled up by another player, simply because the market was too caught up in short-term movements  

Under $100m market cap now, and nearly 50% held by larger holders. Hate to say it, but Joe shareholder asleep at the wheel.

Although $1.60 tenantive support, and this morning some buyers stepping up to the plate - so will be interesting to see if this is a reversal at all.


----------



## Speewha (1 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers www.FertilzerWorks.com*

Hello 

forgot to add www.FertilzerWorks.com to my last post. I like the Agricultural market so find it useful. You may find something in it or you might not I am not endorsing it


----------



## Speewha (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello, 
The one share seller is back again on this stock today. I am aware this may be due to algorithmic trading but would appreciate any comments or thoughts as to why MAK seems to be continually targeted in this way


----------



## tasweb (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Hello,
> The one share seller is back again on this stock today. I am aware this may be due to algorithmic trading but would appreciate any comments or thoughts as to why MAK seems to be continually targeted in this way




First time poster, long time MAK'er. Please don't flame me too bad!

If I place a sell order for 1006 shares at a price and someone is prepared to buy 1005 shares at that price then that will leave 1 share remaining in the market. I've seen this myself with some of my own transactions. I'm a small time trader with the L plates up who usually buys at market with a limited number of dollars. Because of this I tend to work out how many shares $5000 (say) will buy at the current market price and then place an order for that amount even if it does look like a weird amount (e.g. 1006).

Could that be what you are seeing?


----------



## kenny (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Hello,
> The one share seller is back again on this stock today. I am aware this may be due to algorithmic trading but would appreciate any comments or thoughts as to why MAK seems to be continually targeted in this way




Hi Speewha,

One point that might be considered is that any stock that has had a steep run up in recent times will have attracted the attention of a lot of short term traders riding the trend. When the trend reverses, it could be easy for a deep pocketed accumulator or shorter to go fishing for stops in a big way. Without other factors keeping the buying pressure up; the down trend can become self fulfilling temporarily as it runs on market sentiment and stops being triggered.

Just a theory of course. MAK fundamentally is little different from when it was  a dollar more back in April but the sentiment on RP has cooled and the quick money may have moved on.

Regards,

Kenny


----------



## Speewha (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello

Thanks for your thoughts TASWEB, would like to think you are right, however this has been going on for some time with MAK, I have counted 4 one shares sales today. Think there is some manipulation of the market being attempted here but perhaps I am tilting at nothing as there does not seem to be any concern from anybody but me. 
I know that the CEO of MAK had to make a market announcement about this about a month ago.


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Hello
> 
> Thanks for your thoughts TASWEB, would like to think you are right, however this has been going on for some time with MAK, I have counted 4 one shares sales today. Think there is some manipulation of the market being attempted here but perhaps I am tilting at nothing as there does not seem to be any concern from anybody but me.
> I know that the CEO of MAK had to make a market announcement about this about a month ago.



Speewha, 

(note: not lisenced advice)

I can appreciate your situation. 

I assume you have bought in rather late and watched the stock go down. 

If you bought in over $2.00 then you must be concerned. 

There are a few options:

1. Sell, and move on, and learn a lesson.

2. Sell, and wait for a bottom to be formed and re-buy for the next leg up, taking a capital loss for this FY, but still being on the stock.

3. Buy more to take advantage of the weakness.

There may be a few other perspectives as I have been in this since very low prices, and am probably (WayneL) biased. 

Good luck with your decision. 

kennas


----------



## Speewha (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello Kennas, 

Thanks for your reply and concern I actual brought in at .55c back in FEB/March, I have sold some not at the peak... but my current holding has cost me very little.

It’s just that I can't get my head around somebody selling one share constantly and too often to be somebody’s left over trade.

I know AD was forced to make an announcement on this subject, and the ASX, showed some concern. Was just posting on this subject in the hope somebody might educate me as to what the purpose or motive of such trades might be.

I am convinced that with good management and a possible partner MAK will turn out a winner,  it wont be this issue that makes me sell just wanting to learn someting. 

Regards and thanks


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Hello Kennas,
> 
> Thanks for your reply and concern I actual brought in at .55c back in FEB/March, I have sold some not at the peak... but my current holding has cost me very little.
> 
> ...



I am a serial conspiracy/manipulation sceptic but have seen certain stocks played with. MAK management even queried the ASX about their own stock a while ago which was highly unusual. 

I have come to the conclusion that stock manipulation, through course of sales and depth exists, and is part of the market. It's all legal, and only really concerns shorter term traders and brokers trying to get the best price. Long term, it really shouldn't worry you.

Others may have a less subjective perspective. 

kennas


----------



## Speewha (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello 

THANKS Tasweb, Kenny and Kennas, the bee is almost out of my bonnet. Need to find something else to worry about.

 Any insights as to the future price of Lima Beans from your position Kennas?   

 Regards


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Any insights as to the future price of Lima Beans from your position Kennas?
> 
> Regards



I don't touch the national food here. Beans. rice, potato, and guinea pig. WTF!!!

Give me a seafood risotto any day.


----------



## pattyp (5 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Great day on Friday....

The weekly chart is looking very good. We need to confirm by next Friday. The market can still go either way from here, but looks to be in the process of MAKing a decent trend-reversal 

Lets all pray for confirmation, and increasing volume to the upside.

Cheers,
Pat


----------



## kenny (5 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Good point Pat,

What's your take on the Elliot wave side of things? I still can't get my head around the whole 1,3, 5 wave "Impulse" and "Corrective" wave concepts after reading some of the links you kindly forwarded.

GL to holders,

Kenny


----------



## Sean K (10 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Just about to hit the bottom zone of support that I see before I bail.

It's been a relentless downtrend, probably caused by a rediculous rise, that has been discussed. The harder they rise....

Conspiring factors taking their toll. Market weakness and not the results expected from Arrawurra. Plus punters taking their money elsewhere in this spec sector, like U was a while ago.

MAK still at the top of the pile however for getting to development, and the economics of the projects prove it to have a projected MC at least double it's current sp.


----------



## Sean K (11 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK depth has looked pretty odd recently, and I hate to bring up the concept of 'stock manipulation' because of course it NEVER happens  but the past few days there have been some crazy buy and sell orders. 

Just about the entire volume is crappo!!

Unless, of course, it's just school kids trading with their pocket money!


----------



## Sean K (11 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> MAK depth has looked pretty odd recently, and I hate to bring up the concept of 'stock manipulation' because of course it NEVER happens  but the past few days there have been some crazy buy and sell orders.
> 
> Just about the entire volume is crappo!!
> 
> Unless, of course, it's just school kids trading with their pocket money!



Actually, I have been watching the depth a little more closely, and it does look like school kids trying to save their bacon.

Or, the idiot taxi drivers who propped the market up just before Christmas.


----------



## loopy_louie (11 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

hello all,

My financial adviser has told me this is one of the better phosphate explorers in the asx....

With the new tenements in NT he has given a prediction by the end of 2010 the sp will be anywhere from $8 - $30, depending on the findings....

What do you guys think of this prediction??

I disclose holdings


----------



## Sean K (11 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



loopy_louie said:


> hello all,
> 
> My financial adviser has told me this is one of the better phosphate explorers in the asx....
> 
> ...



Yes Loopy, this has been spoken about.

Projected prices range between $3.60 and $80, depending on the weather. 

At the moment the world is subject to the US (and our coming) financial crisis due to easy credit and loose lending criteria coupled with lowering housing prices. 

Take care.


----------



## kenny (11 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi kennas,

I agree, the volumes on the sell side seem rather small. If a major player was selling down, this is a slow painful way to do it.

It is hard to reconcile MAK as one of the better small cap exposures to RP with the current share price.

Waiting for the reversal.

Regards,

Kenny


----------



## Sean K (14 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> MAK depth has looked pretty odd recently, and I hate to bring up the concept of 'stock manipulation' because of course it NEVER happens  but the past few days there have been some crazy buy and sell orders.
> 
> Just about the entire volume is crappo!!
> 
> Unless, of course, it's just school kids trading with their pocket money!



This is really sh!tting me. 

Someone tell me this is good for the stock, or not? 

Wonder which broker is doing this, and why?


----------



## Speewha (14 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello, 

The bee is still in my bonnet on this issue, I have written to the ASX and a couple of media outlets, not sure if will receive a reply, if I do will post here. As has been discussed on MAK thread this action is within ASX rules, but it would nice if could ferret out who is behind it, we might be able to work out the motive for ourselves , and decide what to do with our investment. Being left in the dark makes , making important decisions very difficult. We deserve an open and transparent market. 

Regards


----------



## Speewha (14 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello,

Announcement today from MAK:  Well a little bit of positive sounding news has had an effect on this stock. 

Thought that all the negative things affecting the wider market would make snippets of news that sounds good have little effect. 

Must be news only traders still out there, need a bit of good news to be spread over my other holdings ! 

 Regards


----------



## adamim1 (14 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

That big announcement on the JORC a couple of weeks ago really put a negative spin on things even though the company was still going strong and probably one of the strongest phosphate companies in pre-production. This stock (if all goes to head) can be worth a whole lot more and to be sitting between 130 and 160 at the moment is probably a bargain. 

I think a couple of good announcements will set this one back on track.


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Just about to hit the bottom zone of support that I see before I bail.



Is respecting that support zone.

Still trending down - sideways though.

Light green circle potential break.

Dark green circle broken the down trend, although $2.00 looks important.

IMO.


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Did I hear in the latest AD interview with James (not Joel ?) that MAK had already been approached for takeoff/equity arrangements with regard to Wonarah?


----------



## Speewha (17 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello, 

Joel is in Perth, James is in Brisbane. 

You heard correctly. 

As an aside the one share seller has been active with MAH perhaps they target M stocks. 

Regards


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

AD also said that instead of taking on partners he wanted to take it forward alone to realise shareholder value. 

But is that approach the right approach for us? Surely getting a big backer with plenty of cash would be better for taking this forward fast tracked?

Just like Gutnick has done with Legend.

Take note AD!

*Gutnick phosphate operation to fertilise Indian economy*

Andrew Fraser | July 18, 2008 

FORMER diamond tsar Joe Gutnick has teamed up with India's largest fertiliser supplier and investment icon George Soros in a proposed phosphate operation in northwest Queensland.

Under a deal announced yesterday in Brisbane, the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative, or IFFCO, will inject slightly over $100 million into Mr Gutnick's plan to ship phosphate from the company's four holdings around Mt Isa. 

Reserves total a billion tonnes. 

Mr Gutnick, the chief executive of US-listed Legend International, yesterday revealed that George Soros' Soros Fund Management had invested $20 million in the project and that US hedge fund managers Atticus Management had taken a stake.


----------



## Mackky (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

NO NO we(mak) don't need a partner. People just don't realise just how different Mak is from legend. 
Mak has infrastructure (road, rail, port), legend doesn't and that is why legend needs investors/partners (legend still need to raise another 600 million to get their project going).

IMO when compared to legend mak is massively undervalued. There is a lot more risk with legend than mak. Legend has to raise hundreds of millions $$ plus get approvals from government and natives not just for the mine site but for a slurry pipe line 300km? long and a port. Mak has a larger higher grade deposit than legend, legend will need the construction of a extensive beneficiation plant. (mak will most likely only need a simple screening operation).

Mak should easily fund this project with a bank loan, which will most likely be paid off with 1 months production.
Mak are not just relying on AD's abilities to get this project going asap, they have employee QUALITY consultants and have employed NEVILLE BERGIN as project manager. NB has an excellent track record and AD is right to describe his appointment as a coup for the company.

One day (i'm in no hurry) mak will achieve its true value (hopefully not from a takeover). If you have a good hard look at wonarah there is not much risk this project won't get up and going. Massive resource, suitable for making fertilizer, existing infrastructure, minimal startup cost, flat sandy desert (shouldn't have environmental problems), natives are keen to get it happening, government is keen to get all those royalties. 

Keep thinking I am missing something, but the harder I look I am sure I am not. Maybe everyone is waiting for the release of the pre-feasibility studies, maybe then people will start believing wonarah is going to happen and finally it will sink in just how massively profitable it will most likely be.


----------



## Speewha (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello

Joe always knew how to stitch a deal. They have retained 20% of production for the spot market.
One would of thought this is the path that MAK will eventually go down. Raising funds by other means could be a bit risky/ difficult in today’s market. 

MAK are going to need a lot more than their $12m in the Bank to bring the project to production. 

Regards


----------



## Mackky (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Also Rio chose Wonarah, Rio would have had a good hard look at all the phosphate deposits around Australia and out of them all they chose Wonarah. On that basis alone imo Mak should be capitalised at more than Legend.


----------



## Mackky (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

mak are NOT going to need a lot to bring this project into production, 20-50million. Easily funded by a bank loan or forward sales  and paid back by the first months production.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Not sure if MAK are any better than Legend for the points raised. Possibly. 

Legend seem to have some serious backers which reduces risk incredibly. Don't underestimate that, in this environment.

Legend is actually closer to shipping routes, and IPL, and initial Capex would be repaid rather quickly. 

I disagree on the beneficiation, MAK will probably need that as well. They are only hoping for DSO at the moment. 

Capex, I agree, MAK will be reasonably low, and Opex will be relatively low, pending initial trucking, rail and shipping costs. 

The key at the moment seems to be making the most of current RP prices, and who will do that?

Still holding MAK with a longer term view that Ag commods and support will outperform over the next few years.


----------



## Speewha (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello,
Always knew there were good reasons I brought into this one, thanks for the confirmation posters. Notwithstanding MAK’s excellent position, geographic, existing built infrastructure , quality of product ,staff etc, still think obtaining some cash for forward production is a cheap way of raising cash. MAK have as we know has other attractive projects all of which will need further development and lots of cash. I agree MAK do not need to do this on the same scale that others may have been forced to do. 

Weather variations wet/ dry season, will no doubt play a part in the future of this project, but you really have to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find negative things to say about the great potential we are sitting on with MAK.  I will continue to hold and not play attention to the general market weakness that is affecting many well established and profitable companies let alone start up’s. 

Regards


----------



## Mackky (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

"Legend seem to have some serious backers which reduces risk incredibly. Don't underestimate that, in this environment." 

You have missed my point Mak do not need serious backers(money) so there is no risk to reduce on this front. 

"Legend is actually closer to shipping routes, and IPL, and initial Capex would be repaid rather quickly. "

Closer to shipping routes? do you mean distance to port from the mine?. Dawin is a pretty good port, I think there could be possible issue with water depth at legends chosen port site. (I remember reading Legend will consider barging the phosphate to deep water for loading).  Legend will unlikely raise their huge capex by debt so share holdings will be significantly diluted. Mak have the chance (due to capex being more than 10x less then legend) to fund capex by debt or forward sales thus no dilution.

"I disagree on the beneficiation, MAK will probably need that as well. They are only hoping for DSO at the moment."

I didn't say mak didn't need benefication, I said they will most likely only need a simple screening (benefication) operation. Legend will need a large benefication plant due to their phosphate ore being of a lower grade. (they have factored this into their capex).

"The key at the moment seems to be making the most of current RP prices, and who will do that?"

That is spot on. If all goes to plan Mak will do this easily 1-2years before legend. I know legend don't say this in their presentations, but how are they going to raise a huge capex, drill out there deposit, get approvals for a mine site, pipeline, and port. A lot of environmental issues to consider building a 300km slurry pipeline and a port. If you have any doubt of mak being in production in 2010, then Legend have absolutely no chance of doing this. IMO Joe is dishing out a lot of spin hoping to bring in the big $$ to get the project going.


----------



## Ken (18 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

72,000,000 tonnes of  phosphate is there resource  and they are selling at $200 a tonne. so resource worth, $14.4 billion( is that right)?

I wonder what margins they are making on this, after labour costs, and setup costs.

They are looking at 3 million tonnes per year. so that $600 million worth of phosphate.And from what they are saying they don't see phosphate easing in price. But like anything, MAK have to be in at the right time. no point having the resource if they can't ship it.

Is $1.40 support levels??? 2010 is along way away....


----------



## champ2003 (19 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Ken said:


> 72,000,000 tonnes of  phosphate is there resource  and they are selling at $200 a tonne. so resource worth, $14.4 billion( is that right)?
> 
> I wonder what margins they are making on this, after labour costs, and setup costs.
> 
> ...




2010 is only a 1.5 years away to start with.

MAK could be selling RP at U.S $400/t when they hit production in 2010 as forecast on their project timetable. The current price of RP is U.S $400- $435.

Support could be at the current level barring any major catastrophe however you never know in this market.

OPEX & CAPEX will be discussed in pre feasability however early parameters have been set at OPEX being at around $100 p/t and CAPEX is around 30 million. Profit margins should be around $300 depending on the price of RP at the time of production and there will be offtake agreements to secure a good sales price before hand.

Fundamentals look very strong going ahead.

Good luck with your investments.

Champ


----------



## Sean K (23 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Is respecting that support zone.
> 
> Still trending down - sideways though.
> 
> ...



Approaching the light green circle mentioned in the above post and chart. Intraday, so the world could fall over soon, but starting to look a little better.

Reports of RP price increases over in la la land, which might be giving it a boost, and general market sentiment. May be short lived in this environment, but fingers toes and eyes crossed we have a nice bear rally. 

Would love to call a potential bottom here, but the markets are pretty scarey. eeeeek.

RSI and MACD are looking good on the 6 mth and 1 year daily too.


----------



## Speewha (23 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello, 

There may be some Geopolitical reasons to keep holding MAK,notwithstanding local market vagaries . 

Have provided a link carrying some news that, has not been widely reported in the Aussie media.  Tension growing between Algeria & Morocco over disputed Western Sahara border. Fueled it seems by increasing arms sales to either side from the USA and Russia.
Not sure of reliability of the Oil Drum, will have to look out for other media outlets for confirmation I guess’

www.theoildrum.com/node/4275

Regards


----------



## Ken (23 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Am i the only one who thinks that MAK could be too good to be true?

How could a business that in 1.5-2 years time have a current market cap of $80-90 million, when it appears to be a big possibility that it could be making close to $1 billion in 2 years time...

is it the nature of investors not willing to see the price of phosphate at these levels for that long?

Or is it the risk of holding onto a stock in the current market?

I didn't want to get blinded by 10-20% gains, so i choose only to invest small purely for the fact i can see the overall potential.

Potential is a dirty word, and alot can happen between now and then.

Uranium is a prime example of a commodity getting ahead of itself.

lets hope its not the same for phosphate and MAK can produce at current market price


----------



## Sean K (25 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Ken said:


> Am i the only one who thinks that MAK could be too good to be true?
> 
> How could a business that in 1.5-2 years time have a current market cap of $80-90 million, when it appears to be a big possibility that it could be making close to $1 billion in 2 years time...
> 
> ...



I think it's hard for most experienced investors to expect price gains for RP going from $50 to $400+ in a year to be sustainable. There's arguments for it staying higher for much longer, but it's just simply a logical perception that prices do overshoot sometimes, and this may be one of them. Similar to the U price skyrocketting a while ago and everyone was saying S&D was going to drive it higher or hold it up for years to come. 

The only professional analyst that I know (BBY on MAK) have RP projected prices much lower than $400. Will check what it was.

However, even if prices come back to $200 in the next year the project will be generating lots of profit, and does not suit a sub $100m mc. Keep in mind the dilution for going into production; ongoing costs and capex, pending finance options.  

Chart wise, looks like a short term bottom could have been formed with the stock moving up slightly. MACD and RSI confirming the move. 

I had $1.75 earlier as the most significant level of resistance but perhaps it's more around $1.65 ish. Certainly potential here for it to be breaking that down trend resistance, but who knows in this market environment.


----------



## champ2003 (25 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I think it's hard for most experienced investors to expect price gains for RP going from $50 to $400+ in a year to be sustainable. There's arguments for it staying higher for much longer, but it's just simply a logical perception that prices do overshoot sometimes, and this may be one of them. Similar to the U price skyrocketting a while ago and everyone was saying S&D was going to drive it higher or hold it up for years to come.
> 
> The only professional analyst that I know (BBY on MAK) have RP projected prices much lower than $400. Will check what it was.
> 
> ...




Hi Kennas,

I also think that on the other hand it is also hard for the inexperienced person to think that the RP price will hold but then just take a look at the majority of the other commodities. Most have come off the boil but not to much degree. I would think it reasonable for the RP price to retrace around 30% once it comes off the boil in say 4-5 years time. The question that I have in my mind is at what price will it come off the boil? $600? $700? $800/t?$2000/t? Who know's! If the peak phosphate theorists are correct then this price hike may continue for many years to come.

I have crunched the numbers accounting for the worst and best scenarios and i can't see any downside at all for MAK. The upside is gigantic though.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> The question that I have in my mind is at what price will it come off the boil? $600? $700? $800/t?$2000/t? Who know's!



Yes, who knows? I am hoping it doesn't get to this point, because if the farmers pass on the costs at least half the world will not be able to afford to eat. It's already a major issue across the globe. And when people can't afford to eat the regular fertiliser required products they will stop eating, or find an alternative. Then, farmers no longer have demand and prices come off. As simple as that. It seems the price of food is already causing major issues, so my guess is it's peaking closer to current prices than $2000, but I'm just guessing. Only time will tell.


----------



## champ2003 (27 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Yes, who knows? I am hoping it doesn't get to this point, because if the farmers pass on the costs at least half the world will not be able to afford to eat. It's already a major issue across the globe. And when people can't afford to eat the regular fertiliser required products they will stop eating, or find an alternative. Then, farmers no longer have demand and prices come off. As simple as that. It seems the price of food is already causing major issues, so my guess is it's peaking closer to current prices than $2000, but I'm just guessing. Only time will tell.




I think from previous discussions MAK could sell their RP as a stand alone product to farmers therefore the price of RP could go to extremely high levels. DAP might decouple from RP in that case as DAP may become far too expensive. If farmers decide to stop using DAP then they might just buy the potash and RP separately themselves and apply that. The quality wouldn't be as high as DAP i guess but then what else can the farmers do at those prices when they need to continuously replace the phosperous in the ground.

Champ


----------



## ans25 (27 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi guys,

A good thread going on here, I havn't done a lot of research of MAK, but is it fair to assume this is the bottom?
WHat kind of share price are we looking @ in the mid to long term?

Thanks


----------



## champ2003 (27 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ans25 said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> A good thread going on here, I havn't done a lot of research of MAK, but is it fair to assume this is the bottom?
> WHat kind of share price are we looking @ in the mid to long term?
> ...




Ans25,

Asking about price targets for MAK is a debatable subject for many as the price targets depend on whether or not MAK are able to bring the PH projects into production in their expected time frame. 

1 year price targets have been said to be anything from $3 - $12 and that was before the price hike for Rock phosphate that is about to be announced which probably increases those price targets to a degree.

Price targets for once they hit production are in the vacinity of $25 - $50 but don't take my word for it. These are just the prices that have been discussed. 

Anything is possible. Good luck with your investments.

Champ


----------



## grace (27 July 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> I think from previous discussions MAK could sell their RP as a stand alone product to farmers therefore the price of RP could go to extremely high levels. DAP might decouple from RP in that case as DAP may become far too expensive. If farmers decide to stop using DAP then they might just buy the potash and RP separately themselves and apply that. The quality wouldn't be as high as DAP i guess but then what else can the farmers do at those prices when they need to continuously replace the phosperous in the ground.
> 
> Champ




Farmers just don't switch between potash (Potassium) and phosphatic fertilizers (MAP and DAP) as they are completely different elements.  Potash is generally used by the vegetable growers.

I personally can't see graingrowers just buying the phosphate, as they buy the mix for the added nitrogen which gives the plants a burst.  The phosphate fertilizer called Super is normally used as a pasture fertilizer, and it has the rock phosphate with added Sulpher which is also important for plant growth.

In order of plant element needs, it goes nitrogen first, phosphorus second followed by sulpher, zinc and then all others are in the micro needs area, apart from water, which of course is at the top!


----------



## hsm2008 (1 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I plan to buy some, a tech on the sky bussiness channel had been pimping it, i figure it worth throwing some $$$ at.


----------



## Ken (3 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm happy to buy MAK at these levels, but I am not spending all my cash as I know there is a  long time to production still.

The company appears to be transparent which is great. 

And I have heard the sky news guru also, he is the best guy on there.

A technical chartist.

MAK at $50 and I could start to offset some capital losses...

haha


----------



## zolow (5 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

 I thought those support levels would hold. Perhaps the market got bored.

a couple of XT trades pushed the price below it's support levels, I hope the market doesn't follow and the price recovers 

Z


----------



## Speewha (5 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello, 

Today’s fall in SP ? 

Delay with formalised drill results ?

Just a horrible market ? 

Profit takers ? After all MAK was under 50c a few months ago 

I think may be a combination of the above, not much help I know.
Anybody have any thoughts ? 

Buying opportunity ?

I might wait to see if drops under the dollar, after all despite all the potential and the hype MAK is still just a speculative stock, with untested management at bringing home such a massive project, so perhaps that would be a more realistic level until there is a clearer picture re, JORC, Transport, Weather, Processing, signed customers etc..

I am going to hold, buy some more under a dollar.        


Regards


----------



## Pigsy (5 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I think you'll find that support now is about 50 cents. Which will be a disaster if it reaches it. Why didn't I sell everything in November!!!!!


----------



## Speewha (5 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> I think you'll find that support now is about 50 cents. Which will be a disaster if it reaches it. Why didn't I sell everything in November!!!!!





Pigsy MAK was 25c last November so you will still be doing well at 50c imagine what more recent buyers are feeling !

Regards


----------



## Sean K (6 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

What a disasterous day. I'm not sure where a bottom is and how long it's going to take to recover. Years? God knows. There are no buyers, and sellers are running for the doors. Seems irrational with MAK when you look at the fundamentals. But, as they say, the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.


----------



## eric35 (7 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

WOW, I was on holidays for 3 month and just came back. MAK was one of my favourite spec stocks. But they sure took a dive during the time I was away, lucky I went into cash before I left.
However, I will be watching MAK for the next few days, am tempted to get back in again. I still believe they have a good future.


----------



## zolow (8 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

hey any gurus out there,

I've got a question about interpretation of the course of sales for MAK.

If you look at the course of sales for today the volumes look really wierd there's a whole lot of little trades happening.

Does anyone have any ideas about what is going on?

I've read on other posts that it could be automated traders (i.e. computer programs). Is that what is most likely happening?

Z


----------



## eric35 (8 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Zolow, they are probably automated sales, put in by an algorithm.
The biggest volume of sales was at 1.20. some reasonable parcels, but even they probably come from a big order.


----------



## Pigsy (8 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Zolow, those small parcels are really killing the sp.  I note back in May the MD had similar issues to the extent that there was a ASX media release about it. Here's the quote 

"At the start of May, Minemakers and several of its shareholders noted a new type of trading
in Minemakers’ shares, namely a multitude of trades at single digit levels.
This caused concern to numerous of our shareholders, several of whom registered their
concern with Minemakers and with the ASX, and they queried whether the practice could be
influencing the share price. The Company also raised the issue with ASX when it was
initially noted and when the trading party was able to be identified.
ASX has advised Minemakers that it has reviewed the situation and understands that the
trading is of a form known as Direct Market Access (DMA) or Algorithmic. It advised that it
monitors DMA trading and expects brokers to have in place appropriate mechanisms to
ensure that such trading is not manipulative."


Isn't it funny you only see this sort of thing when the sp is going down and not up. So if it's not manipulative what is it?


----------



## zolow (8 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Pigsy said:


> Zolow, those small parcels are really killing the sp.  I note back in May the MD had similar issues to the extent that there was a ASX media release about it. Here's the quote
> 
> "At the start of May, Minemakers and several of its shareholders noted a new type of trading
> in Minemakers’ shares, namely a multitude of trades at single digit levels.
> ...




Thanks Pigsy, very informative. I agree that it looks like it's manipulative (like someone with a nice parcel of shares that they want to short and so force the price down by selling a small amount, then get a profit on the whole).

This doesn't really mean much if you are in for the long haul, but it is just really annoying seeing your portfolio valuation jump around so much on share prices that have only changed because some "algorithm" decided it wanted to sell 30 shares at $1.24 or whatever.

you wouldn't happen to have any links on information about DMA would you?


----------



## Pigsy (8 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Google search found this.
http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/institutional/direct_market_access.htm


----------



## Sean K (9 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hooly dooly, 

I'm feeling it for you guys who got on late and seen the sp get trashed from almost $3.00. I'm feeling it for myself, even though lucky to be free carried. I still have quite a bit in this, just because it's free carried and see some long term potential. In hindsight, I should have played the technicals (usual plan) and sold on the significant breakdowns around $2.25, $2.00, and $1.75. I thought $1.40 was going to hold by the chart. Obviously, they are not _fool_ proof. 

Now, on this weakness, it's time to consider re-entry because the funny's have NOT changed, except for the smashing of commods in general, and market sentiment. 

Ag prices have not retreated like oil, copper, and gold. MAK has just been thrown in with the rest, which is fundamentally wrong. But, obviously the market is not ratonal; up, or down. 

MAK, RWD and STB, all significantly off, when Potash and RP are forcast to stay high enough to see these stocks probably go into development in the coming years.

The market is forecasting reduced prices by the look. Maybe too much though. 

So, it'd be gutsy to get in right now with this bearish sentiment, but it will eventually turn about IMO. It's just a matter of time. 

Unless of course world financial markets disolve completely taking everything else with it. It's a possability, but I think there's a higher % chance that we'll see a bottom in the coming months, to maybe 2 years, and world growth will continue after a decent shake out. 

There's some 'commods' that will do well, and I think fertiliser products will stay higher for longer. 

I hope some of you have some spare change left to take advantage of the potential bottom approaching, around these levels. Hard to imagine 3000's but who knows...


----------



## adamim1 (12 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I have $2 and $1.80

So I'm feeling it hard.

Although its only a loss if you sell, so I'm holding on.


----------



## DowJones (12 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I wanted to get some at 1.40's and decided against it... luckily

I read from Bell Potter analyst report that this stock has a DCF of $3+. In fact it almost got to $3 early this year. Its a case that the baby is being thrown out with the bath water.


----------



## JTLP (12 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



DowJones said:


> I wanted to get some at 1.40's and decided against it... luckily
> 
> I read from Bell Potter analyst report that this stock has a DCF of $3+. In fact it almost got to $3 early this year. Its a case that the baby is being thrown out with the bath water.




Really? Baby with the bath water? What about IPL? They have been decimated in all this as well.

The markets are shaky and the money is swishing around from financials to commodities and when inflation creeps back in move to commodities LOL!. MAK is now in a very steep downtrend and finished on the daily low today...can't say that would be all too pleasing for holder's.

Kennas crunched numbers for everybody and if those figures hold then holder's could expect to be rewarded...interesting times ahead.


----------



## Sean K (13 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

It would be nice to think that this is a short term severe correction in commodities and all will recover. 

It's hard to stay medium to even long term positive with such dramatic losses in stocks. I've never seen this before, except for the Tech wreck. I think I lost about 50% during that, and I was 'diversified'. lol. This time, just about all in resources less cash, and I'm paying for it. Should have moved more out earlier. Lesson learn't, again. Although, I suppose the only smart place for money the past 6 months was in the bank, or short everything. 

The fundametals, and the risks, are still there with MAK, no change. In fact downside risks may be slightly better with oil coming off, which should reduce opex. We've seen all the numbers about what they can earn related to current mc.

Overall risk to the general markets are being factored in at the moment with a deeper and longer downturn perhaps expected. I can't see how that will effect the demand for Ag related stocks at the moment. They are a different kettle of fish to base metals aren't they?


----------



## Speewha (13 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello, 

Well MAK has ducked under the $1.00, This will have a lot of people hurting the market is cruel and unforgiving place at the best of times, let alone during the current conditions. 
As far as I can see from the top twenty share holders including AMP there have been no sellers will be interesting to keep an eye out to see if that changes. 

MAK is just another spec stock with great potential, the difference is the market fell in love with it, before it was even a teenager.  All adolescents get a big ugly as they grow up, and it seems the love has been lost. I am sure as MAK gets closer to being an adult the market and MAK will reconcile.

I have to tell a little story here, I received a phone call from Etrade today threatening to close my account for market manipulation !  I have been putting in orders to buy a stock at the offer price   (not MAK ), admittedly the offer price has been pretty north of the last sale price  it seems  I rang some bells at the ASX, and have received a warning. We are talking a .095c share and small parcels that are within my budget. It seems if my orders were bigger it would not get noticed.

 I am only putting this here as large institutional bot trading is perfectly legal as we have discussed on this thread and there is nothing to be done about that. Irony can be a funny thing. 

Regards


----------



## grace (13 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Looking at the chart, not much resistance at 80c, stronger resistance at 40c, but would certainly leave it up to the more experienced who post here to better interpret, and I encourage you to.


----------



## Pigsy (13 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes I agree. Looks like a free fall to 40cents.  Unfortunately for me who bought at $2.40.  But so you all know the markets not getting my money, I'm prepared to go down with the ship.


----------



## derty (13 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm not much of a technical analyst, though I do remember reading that strength is shown on down days. The volume for MAK today is more than has been seen since late May. There was certainly a lot of buying into the panicked selling in the hour or two after the open. 

I wonder if we are starting to see some of the "smart" money stepping in? Certainly if this volume had been dumped into the support seen in the last week or so MAK would have been 40cents today. If anyone can add to my amateurish observations it would be appreciated.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



derty said:


> I'm not much of a technical analyst, though I do remember reading that strength is shown on down days. The volume for MAK today is more than has been seen since late May. There was certainly a lot of buying into the panicked selling in the hour or two after the open.
> 
> I wonder if we are starting to see some of the "smart" money stepping in? Certainly if this volume had been dumped into the support seen in the last week or so MAK would have been 40cents today. If anyone can add to my amateurish observations it would be appreciated.



I'm not much of one either derty, but I agree with your comments here. Looks like a capitulation day to me. A hammer with a very long tail, on volume and stopping at some support. Could be a turnaround signal.

_Could_ be. 

Wouldn't be game to call anything in this market.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Funny there was significant buying yesty and then they bring out a very good ann.

Some DSO potential there, which is what MAK holders want.

Could it be the turna round point?

Market is still crap IMO.....



> HIGH GRADE PHOSPHATE RESULTS
> 14 August 2008
> 
> The drilling and assaying programmes to date have illustrated an extensive distribution of high grade rock phosphate. Table A below provides an example of some high-grade results at both the Main Zone and Arruwurra Prospect at Wonarah.
> ...




See ann for the details.


----------



## Bushman (14 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Funny there was significant buying yesty and then they bring out a very good ann.
> 
> Some DSO potential there, which is what MAK holders want.
> 
> ...




Surely it should be. DSO grades means less capex. Good in the midst of a credit crunch I would have thought. Should add a premium to what the deposit is valued at. 

You cannot change overall sentiment but I think with this deposit the sentiment has been ridiculous. Investors are a melancholy bunch. 

PS: I do not hold so not a ramp. If I had some cashola, I would buy at $1. Talk about a gift horse.


----------



## hsm2008 (14 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

wanted to buy minemakers for a while, but saw in was in a sell zone, so i waited until today where i jumped on it @ $1.05 after it went up 8%, it is still believe it's in a sell zone but don't see alot downside based on fundamentals,  i mean a 80 million dollar company that could make 10 times that in a couple of years, come on. The shareprice may still slip down, but what i could potentially lose dwarfs what i could make. shareholders are just going to have to wait 1 year plus  i reckon to see real results on share price.

in the short term expect the stock to trend down, or follow the ipl price up and down


----------



## kenny (14 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

good luck to you hsm2008. What signal prompted you to jump in. I imagine there are a few watching from the sidelines for this one.

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## hsm2008 (14 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

it was up 8% up at the opening, and it closed higher yesterday so basically in the spur i decided that it might rally. 

Looking at the chart now however I see alot of negative signs. such as the 3 moving average not pointing up (now sideways) and below the 30 day moving average which itself is pointing down, and a alot of long black bars on the candle chart. People have been happy to sell this thing off at $1.3-$1 recently.  

One positive aspect is that it still ended up closing higher today. it might signal a start of a rally if it can do the same tomorrow.


----------



## hsm2008 (14 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

know mak has phosphate rock not phosphoric acid, but i thought this might be interesting

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

13 August 2008 12:17  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS news)--Moroccan phosphoric acid producer Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) has agreed third- quarter contracts with Indian buyers at a price up $325/tonne from the second quarter, India trader sources said on Wednesday. 

The new price was reported at $2,310/tonne CFR (cost and freight) although no-one at OCP was available to confirm the deal.  

The news ends months of wrangling between OCP and Indian buyers.  

OCP had consistently indicated that it would hold out for $2,500/tonne CFR, in line with what it had already achieved in European markets, arguing that prices needed to increase to cover rising sulphur feedstock costs.  

However, reports that another North African producer, Groupe Chimique Tunisien (GCT), had provisionally settled at $2,200/tonne CFR with its Indian buyers were thought to have undermined OCP’s position, traders said.  

GCT was now understood to be renegotiating its third-quarter price with customers in light of the price achieved by OCP.  

During the protracted negotiations, phosphoric acid supplies to Indian buyers, who use the product to manufacture finished phosphate fertilizers, were disrupted, sources said, in turn reducing output of domestically produced fertilizers.  

However, OCP was now indicating that it would ship four vessels within the next week to bolster supplies. 

To discuss issues facing the chemical industry go to ICIS connect

By: Mike Nash
+44 20 8652 3214

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

also in the age

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shares in junior mineral explorer Minemakers Ltd jumped on news the company continued to find high-grade rock phosphate at its wholly owned Wonarah project in the Northern Territory.

At 1221 AEST, the company's shares were up 12.5 cents, or 13.16 per cent, to $1.075.

The company plans to begin production by 2010 and will assess the potential to produce a direct shipping ore (DSO).

"DSO production would result in lesser capital and operating costs," it said.

Managing director Andrew Drummond said the immediate planning challenge was "where to begin the mining for the best economic return for shareholders".

Rock phosphate prices have skyrocketed since January last year from $US50 per tonne to between $US450 and $US500 a tonne by late July.

Rock phosphate is used mainly in agricultural fertilisers.

-------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Sean K (15 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I'm not much of one either derty, but I agree with your comments here. Looks like a capitulation day to me. A hammer with a very long tail, on volume and stopping at some support. Could be a turnaround signal.
> 
> _Could_ be.
> 
> Wouldn't be game to call anything in this market.



Not a really convincing follow through yesterday, so not a confirmed turnaround to me. Wanted to see a white candle finishing close to the daily high, on decent volume. We had the opposite, even though it finished up because of the gap.

That is one very ugly downtrend. 

Smart money should have taken profits before or on those breakdowns.


----------



## Whiskers (15 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



derty said:


> I wonder if we are starting to see some of the "smart" money stepping in?






kennas said:


> Not a really convincing follow through yesterday, so not a confirmed turnaround to me. Wanted to see a white candle finishing close to the daily high, on decent volume. We had the opposite, even though it finished up because of the gap.
> 
> That is one very ugly downtrend.
> 
> Smart money should have taken profits before or on those breakdowns.




I don't hold this yet but keeping an eye on it.

Since I've taken an active interest in EW I'm seeing bludy EW waves in everything now. 

I did the maths to make sure and in a zig zag 'a' often equals 'b', which is what has just happened here... except this is a double zig zag... and over shot a tad, hence the hammer.

Looks a pretty good chance to turnaround soon to me.


----------



## hsm2008 (16 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

It stunk yesterday really stunk, this thing might/will drop down to 40/50 cents, don't care, if they ever get into production soon enough (< 2 years) we will be all cashing in big time,  don't thing the price of rp will dip below $200, which should mean they would be profitable. Mr drummond needs to be concerned with getting to production as soon as, and not casing up people buying 1 stock parcels on the exchange.


----------



## hsm2008 (16 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

yes l'm obessed but however

http://www.centralianadvocate.com.au/article/2008/08/15/3121_news.html

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$1.5b railway plan centres on Tennant 

Carenda Jenkin

15Aug08 

A PLANNED rail link from Tennant Creek to Mount Isa would cost $1.5 billion and make the NT town Australia's freight hub. 

Australian Transport and Energy Corridor (ATEC) is researching the link between the regions to see if the plan would be economically viable. 

Their report is expected to be handed to NT Government and the Mount Isa City Council next month. 

Perth-based Minemakers hope to start mining rock phosphate ore about 230km east of Tennant Creek in 2010. 

So far the company has found 72 million tonnes of the ore at Wonarah and they hope to find a lot more. 

The project is yet to finish a feasibility study and is subject to approval.

But Minemakers managing director Andrew Drummond backed the rail plan with enthusiasm. 

He said the Wonarah project would have a minimum life-span of 20 years. 

He said: "Freight costs by road are four or five times higher than by rail. So rail would be the cheapest way of doing it. 

"Production is aimed at 2010 and there is no way a railway will be built by then. 

"Phase one would see us moving three million tonnes a year by road train along the Barkly Highway to Tennant Creek, then by rail to Darwin. 

'If there was a rail line from Mt Isa it would give us a huge ability to move six million tonnes.''

It is uncertain who will foot the bill if the rail line gets the go-ahead.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Somebody tell mr swan to start using that budget surplus to invest in some port and rail in this country, too many miners i read up on constrained by transport cost and/or port allocation, it isn't like the country wouldn't benefit, as it already has, through the extra taxes collected by the increased mining business in recent years.  It would also be excellent for farmers as supposedly agribussiness is set to boom in the next couple of years.


----------



## hsm2008 (21 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

from the bussiness standard, an indian bussiness daily
------------------------------------------------------------------------
`Govt policy not favourable for greenfield projects` 

Q&A: R S Nanda 
Ch Prashanth Reddy / Hyderabad August 19, 2008, 0:16 IST 

Director and chief operating officer of Nagarjuna Fertilizers and Chemicals, R S Nanda, feels that the shift in government policy in 2002-03 has affected the growth of fertiliser industry in the country. He tells Ch Prashanth Reddy that due to the policy shift, the industry margins are shrinking and there has been no capacity addition, leading to shortage of the vital agriculture input. Excerpts:

What is the reason for the current product shortage in the fertiliser sector?

The change of government policy in 2002-03 is the main reason. At that time we were self-sufficient in urea production. Now, we are importing 6-7 million tonnes at a cost of about $800 per tonne. Because of the heavy imports, the subsidy amount has also shot up from Rs 30,000 crore to Rs 1.2 lakh crore this year. The government is also not coming to grips with the actual subsidy it is giving to the farmers. There is going to be a gap of about Rs 85,000 crore-Rs 90,000 crore between the budgeted and actual subsidy this year. Since no new production capacity has come up, situation will be worse in the coming years if the policy changes are not made.

Why there is no capacity addition in the industry?

It is again the government policy, which is not favourable for setting up greenfield units in the country. Year after year, the margins of fertiliser companies are declining.

Do you expect the new fertiliser policy to be helpful in this regard?

As per the current indications, the new policy will surely give some encouragement but only for additional production by the existing units. For setting up a greenfield urea project, huge investments are required. For instance, to set up a 1 million-tonne urea plant an investment of about Rs 4,500 crore is needed. To sink in such kind of money, the new policy has to be long-term and fairly attractive.

What kind capacity additions do you expect from the existing units following the new policy?

The revamp of existing plants following the policy announcement is expected to bring in an additional urea capacity of about 2.5 million tonnes. As the average domestic price of urea is about $230 as against an import price of $800 per tonne, this will lead to a saving of Rs 800 crore to Rs 1,000 crore in subsidies.

Is NFCL also going in for capacity expansion?

Yes, we are planning to add 200,000 tonnes to the existing capacity of 1.3 million tonnes. The expansion project is estimated to cost Rs 250 crore.

Why are many domestic fertiliser units exploring overseas projects? 

We don't have enough raw material like natural gas, rock phosphate and potash (NoP). Wherever there is availability of raw materials, the companies are exploring. Besides, as I told, the government policy so far has not been favourable for starting greenfield projects.

It does not give the kind of returns the companies will get abroad.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

looks to me that (a) there will continue to be shortages and (b) alot of money is going into getting raw materials, i don't imagine that all those investment made, including those by indian fertilzer companies can be expected to be recouped if rp is going back to $50.


----------



## hsm2008 (22 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=246623
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wheat Producers Should Keep Phosphorus Prices in Perspective 

MANHATTAN, Kan. - Phosphorus (P) fertilizer prices are high, no question, but wheat producers should not overreact to the lofty price tags by cutting back on phosphate fertilizer if it ´s needed for the wheat crop, said Kansas State University agronomist Barney Gordon. 

"Where soil phosphorous levels are low (10-20 parts per million Mehlich III or Bray-1 P) or very low (less than 10 ppm), the likelihood of a wheat yield response to phosphorous is greater than 50 percent," said Gordon, who is the agronomist-in-charge at the K- State Research and Extension North Central Experiment Field near Belleville. "Often, the yield response is great enough to more than pay for the phosphorous fertilizer, even at today ´s prices." 

In mid-August, prices in Kansas for dry and liquid forms of phosphorus ranged from $1 to $1.30 per pound-approximately 180 to 210 percent higher than a year ago.  

Wheat tends to be highly responsive to P input if the soil test category is low or very low, he said. Phosphorus is generally the second-most limiting nutrient in wheat production behind nitrogen, but in some areas of the Great Plains, phosphorous is even more limiting than nitrogen. 

"Early-season phosphorous deficiency can limit wheat yield potential.  The first five to six weeks after emergence is the critical period. Wheat absorbs about 18 percent of its total seasonal phosphorus uptake in just the first two weeks of growth," Gordon said. 

Phosphorus has major impacts on tillering and rooting of wheat, and an early-season P deficiency can reduce those important aspects of growth and development, he explained. In turn, a poorly developed plant is more susceptible to stresses in winter and spring. 

"It doesn ´t take much added phosphorous fertilizer, with the proper timing and placement, to have a big effect on early-season development and yields," the agronomist said. 

Later-season phosphorous deficiency has a much lower impact on wheat production than early-season phosphorous deficiency. 

Gordon said the biggest response to phosphorous will come from placing the fertilizer with the seed -- either as a dry product, such as 11-52-0, or a liquid, such as 10-34-0.  

Broadcasting P can also improve early-season wheat growth in some cases (especially on soils testing medium for Mehlich III or Bray-1 P). But, broadcasting is less efficient and requires a higher rate to obtain a similar response, making it more expensive. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Am I deaming or did MAK go up 9% ish yesterday?

Surely not a green day?

Still on a slippery slope. 

While the market's still wobbly I'm not sure if we'll see any great recovery here. Risks are that RP corrects a bit and that will be a stock to the system, and that the scoping study says Opex is going to be much higher than the sub $100 tn expected. 

If all goes to plan though, and they get to mining in 2010 with Opex about $100 tn and RP above even $200, it's way undervalued, as has been discussed too much. 

Still, watching for a recovery to add more.

There's a few bumps on the way back up but the main one will be around that $1.35-40 ish zone where it completely fell over.


----------



## blogs (23 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Went green on a short rally after looking like it was gunna go mid to low 70's. Monday will be interesting but still get the feeling its gunna keep drifting down-has been being sold into for quite a while now, with the ocassional spree of people buying into the asks. If she was gunna break the down I would have thought the latest announcement would have done it, so back to T.A I guess to see where and when...


----------



## blogs (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well another day, another day in the red....

Think its obvious that this is going to test 60 cents-people on another site are going on about how 'cheap' they are atthe moment but no one is buying-all getting sold into. So I ask myself, why would anyone be forced to buy now when they can sit back and wait for it to drop some more. Unless there is someone with deep pockets who buys a chunk, or some great news this aint going anywhere for the time being me thinks?

Thoughts?


----------



## Sean K (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blogs said:


> Well another day, another day in the red....
> 
> Think its obvious that this is going to test 60 cents-people on another site are going on about how 'cheap' they are atthe moment but no one is buying-all getting sold into. So I ask myself, why would anyone be forced to buy now when they can sit back and wait for it to drop some more. Unless there is someone with deep pockets who buys a chunk, or some great news this aint going anywhere for the time being me thinks?
> 
> Thoughts?



Yep; less risk taking, people going to cash, others locking in profits, doubts on opex and commod price going forward. Perfect storm for downtrend, and NO buyers.

This could well be cheap if all the stars align.

Fears of a US total implosion have the entire market by the throat right now, and may do until rightoffs stop, and growth returns...

6 mths to 5 years..?? It's anyone's guess.


----------



## blogs (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Unfortunately I agree Keenas-there is a serious lack of buyers, heck there is 10,000 for sale at .855 which I thought would have been snapped up, but nope still just sitting there. Its a shame, I really like this stock but the bears are out to play it seems....

I do wonder though at what price it would entice someone to clear a few lines, 50-60 cents maybe?


----------



## Speewha (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hello,

How you feel about this one depends when you brought in. Won’t go into all the negative or positive possibilities here, that is being done in great detail on this and other forums. 

Will just make the observation all recent movements are based on comparatively small volumes. Think that early buyers are taking profits, late buyers cutting losses. As far as I see no major holder including AMP have reduced their holding. 

MAK is and always has been a speculative stock and as with all speculative stocks you need to have strong nerves and be prepared to ride the bumps, if you are having trouble sleeping perhaps the stock market is not the place for you at this time. 

There are stocks that have been around for years that have consistently been well run and profitable they are also suffering because of the justifiable angst being shown by our market due to the dark clouds that have formed and could be argued still growing over world financial markets.

Regards


----------



## blogs (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Speewha said:


> Hello,
> 
> How you feel about this one depends when you brought in. Won’t go into all the negative or positive possibilities here, that is being done in great detail on this and other forums.
> 
> ...




Problem is that it has been trickling down on low volume since May and I wouldnt be surprised to see it close under 80 cents today, as you would know volume, or lack of it can really destroy the value of a S.P short term.


----------



## Ken (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Just a question on the options.

When do they expire? And at what price?

MAKO has lost 50% in last few weeks.


----------



## blogs (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

They expire 31 December 2008, good buy if she goes back above $1, lousy buy if she goes down to 60 cents lol


----------



## kenny (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Ken,

MAKO's 31/12/2008 expiry. Exercise 30c

Cheers,

Kenny

<some more characters to make post long enough>


----------



## grace (25 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

What do holders think of IPL's move into arafura's reo/phosphate/uranium deposit at Nolans bore in the NT?  Looking at the option of putting a chemical plant in either NT or SA for processing of reo's, but also for using the phosphate for production of phosphoric acid and calcium chloride (I think one has to become a scientist these days when investing).  

Interesting move by IPL......we get some business, you get some business type of deal.  There is also a gold hopeful (nav) with a similar type deposit of reo/phosphate/uranium (I'm holding that one painfully), and Mt Weld owned by Lynas (although Westfarmers own the phosphate there, thanks to twiggy's past transactions from memory, and the processing will be done offshore....Malaysia as I recall).


----------



## Dezza (28 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

What the? No post on MAK since Monday, even with an announcement and investor preso?

Anyways, announcement was positive. Good to see the NT Govt. chipping in and helping out. 

Presentation, another good summary in case you forgot the last one. Updated investors on the NT support. Are the presentations getting more relaxed? Nice to mention the Asians, but did a high school student prepare the PowerPoint slides or something?

Share Price still hovering though...


----------



## Speewha (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Dezza said:


> . Are the presentations getting more relaxed? Nice to mention the Asians, but did a high school student prepare the PowerPoint slides or something?




Hello,

Ha Ha Dezza, 
Let’s hope their mining skills are better than those displayed in their presentations. However good news is welcome however it comes. 
Suspect their presentations will become more corporate in time, might be a job going for a good COMS person. 

Regards


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK has made a significant move today, which may signal a bottom was found.

However, on the medium term chart, I can't back up until it gets to the blue circle, with a stop, or then going all in when it's around the green one.. 

Overall, market is still on a precipice (however you spell it).....


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> MAK has made a significant move today, which may signal a bottom was found.
> 
> However, on the medium term chart, I can't back up until it gets to the blue circle, with a stop, or then going all in when it's around the green one..
> 
> Overall, market is still on a precipice (however you spell it).....




Announcement just out probably explains it... the highlighted bit.

Just gotta find some spare cash to get into it now. 


WONARAH RESOURCE DRILLING COMPLETED

29 August 2008

Minemakers has completed its four month resource definition drilling programme.
New JORC compliant resource estimates for both the Main Zone and Arruwurra will be undertaken for Minemakers by Coffey Mining Pty Ltd over the next couple of months.
Based on the widespread nature and general continuity of the phosphate mineralisation encountered, Minemakers reasonably expects that *the new resource estimates will be a significant increase* from the current 72Mt at 23% P2O5 JORC compliant inferred resource estimate in the Main Zone.


----------



## shag (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

so are you buying in further yet kennas?
i might take a punt on a few of these speculative miners while the market is subdued.


----------



## hsm2008 (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Mississippi Phosphates produces record earnings
Wednesday, August 27, 2008 
By APRIL M. HAVENS
Phosphate Holdings Inc. this week announced $35 million in record second quarter earnings, a 349 percent jump from $7.8 million in earnings during the same period last year. 

Phosphate Holdings Inc. is the sole stockholder of Mississippi Phosphates Corp., which owns and manages a diammonium phosphate production facility that employs about 220 people in Pascagoula. 

Diammonium phosphate is a water-soluble ammonium phosphate salt that is commonly used as a fertilizer, among other uses. 

During Tuesday's earnings conference call, CEO Robert Jones said the company "just had a great quarter." 

The company sold 162,427 tons of diammonium phosphate in the second quarter of 2008 as compared to 103,917 tons in 2007, the financial data showed. 

Net sales in the second quarter were $171.5 million, up 192 percent of second quarter 2007's $58.8 million, which was due in part to a 183 percent increase in the average sales price of diammonium phosphate over the last year. 

Currently, the average price is $1,049 per short ton. In 2007, diammonium phosphate cost about $371 per ton, Jones said. 

This price increase of diammonium phosphate is historical, Jones said, but the prices have not yet responded to the sharp rise in the cost of ammonia, sulfur and phosphate rock. 

For example, the cost of ammonia, Jones said, has gone from about the high $500s last year to about $750 per ton currently. 

Diammonium phosphate is manufactured from phosphate, sulfuric acid and ammonia. The company makes its own sulfuric acid, but it purchases the other ingredients. 

Earnings for the first half of this year were $42 million, or $5.19 per fully-diluted share of common stock. During that same time period last year, Phosphate Holdings posted $33.7 million in earnings, or $4.40 per share, the company's second quarter report said. 

Net sales from January to June this year were $238.7 million, a 117 percent increase over 2007's $109.9 million in the same time period. 

Despite hikes in ammonia and phosphate rock, the company is optimistic that increased international demand for diammonium phosphate will keep it healthy during the summer, a historically slower season. 

Stephen Wehmann, vice president of sales and marketing, said during the conference call areas such as India, Russia, China and South America, in particular Brazil, will demand more product in the coming quarter. 

India alone is expected to import 400,000 to 600,000 tons of diammonium phosphate between now and November, he said. 

Reporter April Havens can be reached at ahavens@themississippipress.com or 228-934-1478


----------



## hsm2008 (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

the only thing l'm worried about is capex and cashflow, if they can manage that they'll make a ton of money. They might need a partner


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> so are you buying in further yet kennas?



No, not yet, I will when those circles are breached. At the moment, the bank owes we interest which is all I'm happy with...


----------



## Dezza (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Up 30% today, but still way off the previous highs. More good news on drilling will always help, however, until the phosphate starts moving across the Barkly Hwy, price will still hover around. 

Depending on how market sentiment goes tonight overseas, will see how MAK goes on Monday. Will either see some selling for profits if they bought at 80c, or more buying in waiting for those "more significant" results and JORC compliance. 

Either way, should be fun!


----------



## JTLP (29 August 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Gah! Always pick the stock a day too early! Damn you MAK and your 30% increase...leaves me in the dust for the 1st day of Sept.


----------



## Sean K (1 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



hsm2008 said:


> the only thing l'm worried about is capex and cashflow, if they can manage that they'll make a ton of money. They might need a partner



Capex will be the easy thing for this project. A few sheds, a rail siding, contibution to Darwin Port expansion (if needed - looks like NT Gov is going to foot the bill, a few big spades, and she's away. <$50m at a guess. I think the original SS Capex was $40m off the top of my head. 

It's the Opex that needs to be sorted, and the logistic/transport consortian is working on that. No costs are yet to be produced. Original SS was under $100 tn, but overall mining costs have skyrocketed since then. Fuel, labour, spares, new tyres, food, pleasure platoon, etc...

We're only guessing by putting a number on a likely Opex at time of mining in 2010. 

What they need is for the Opex and RP price attained to be economical. Right now, at current prices, it's a monty. But, do RP prices stay high, or come off? And what's the final Opex to be?

That's why it still needs to be classed as a spec investment IMO. Could be a great long term pick now IF the stars align. 

A partner? I've always thought that would be the way to go. Perhaps whoever needs the RP to make their poo can throw a few bucks in..


----------



## Sean K (1 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Cripes, up 50% in two sessions. Nice. 

I haven't been able to watch the trading as I'm in transit. 

How's the volume depth been looking? I assume it's been chased a bit and sellers disappearing. 

Looks to have broken that downtrend clearly, although depends how she finishes of course. Will be interesting to see how it handles the $1.40 ish wall.


----------



## shag (1 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

a interesting day, a few on my panel have made signifiant uncharateristic moves up, the rest down.
a good day considering wall street and being monday and all.


----------



## Speewha (1 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I haven't been able to watch the trading as I'm in transit.
> 
> How's the volume depth been looking? I assume it's been chased a bit and sellers disappearing.
> 
> Looks to have broken that downtrend clearly, although depends how she finishes of course. Will be interesting to see how it handles the $1.40 ish wall.




Hello Kennas, 
Total Vol 2.1 million, seems to be all small sales. No big gaps showing in offered prices. At close buy offer range $1.42  to $1.345. Sell $1.430 to $1.510. This is for top ten all small parcels. Highest Buy Vol offerd 15,000, Highest sell Vol offered 16,500. As you say test comming.
Regards


----------



## pan (1 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> MAK has made a significant move today, which may signal a bottom was found.
> 
> However, on the medium term chart, I can't back up until it gets to the blue circle, with a stop, or then going all in when it's around the green one..
> 
> Overall, market is still on a precipice (however you spell it).....




Broke the 1.40 resistence level today but came a long way back from the high after touching the other resistence at 1.60 ish.. thoughts on tomorrows outlook?


----------



## Whiskers (1 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



pan said:


> Broke the 1.40 resistence level today but came a long way back from the high after touching the other resistence at 1.60 ish.. *thoughts on tomorrows outlook*?




She took off a bit too quick for me to get organised, but I'll probably get a chance on the rebound... wave 2. It may come back to $1.00'ish.

I haven't done as much work on MAK as I have on some others that have been on my watch list for longer, but it does look like she's rearing to go again.


----------



## Sean K (4 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



pan said:


> Broke the 1.40 resistence level today but came a long way back from the high after touching the other resistence at 1.60 ish.. thoughts on tomorrows outlook?



I had written some thoughts in my ASF Blog on what was going on, and have posted some more on what might happen from here. Those long tails on the past 3 days are pretty bearish, and we need $1.25ish to hold up, or it's back down. For an upward progression look for a higher high and low. Until then, the break up has no foundation/support.


----------



## Sean K (6 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Surprising comeback yesterday (to me) on a really bearish day. Anything with a white canle yesterday you'd have to take notice of. 

$1.25 ish has held, for now, but lots of bearish news all over the globe could keep a lid on things. Europe is down about 6% so far this week, cripes.

I thought a triangle might appear on this pole but a flag is hanging there. Same principle with a pennant, the target on a break up is the length of the pole from the break, but just a probability. 

But in this market, anything goes.


----------



## blogs (6 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Kennas, with the 15 million oppies to be converted (and some obviosly drip fed into market) over the next few months, in combination with a very bearish market do you think this will continue the trend back down and maybe fill the gap at 70 odd?


----------



## Sean K (6 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blogs said:


> Kennas, with the 15 million oppies to be converted (and some obviosly drip fed into market) over the next few months, in combination with a very bearish market do you think this will continue the trend back down and maybe fill the gap at 70 odd?



Some people may convert the oppies and sell them for a stag profit, but I think a lot of people may have already done this. I converted mine some time ago. There may be some pressure on the stock, but might depend on general market conditions, RP outloook, as well as the upcoming JORCs for the Main Zone and Arrawarra (spelling). So, a few factors to influence it. Whatever the case, will be good for the company to have some more dollars in the bank, but with slight dilution to the stock. Maybe just a speed bump...


----------



## blogs (7 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Some people may convert the oppies and sell them for a stag profit, but I think a lot of people may have already done this. I converted mine some time ago. There may be some pressure on the stock, but might depend on general market conditions, RP outloook, as well as the upcoming JORCs for the Main Zone and Arrawarra (spelling). So, a few factors to influence it. Whatever the case, will be good for the company to have some more dollars in the bank, but with slight dilution to the stock. Maybe just a speed bump...




You think a lot of peole have converted in August? 1st of August there was still 15 mill outstanding-Im guessing they will issue an update in Sep sometime? Volumes are trending back down to 200k odd a day, with 15 million odd to be converted it wouldnt take much for someone who needs to sell some to pay for conversion to really either cap the price or push it right back down? I would have thought this would be continuing up back over $2, after all there are a lot more boxes ticked now than 5 months ago, yet it still seems to be languishing. This indicates to me the bears are definately in contol and no one wants to risk capital on a speccy no matter how promising it may be?


----------



## Sean K (7 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blogs said:


> You think a lot of peole have converted in August? 1st of August there was still 15 mill outstanding-Im guessing they will issue an update in Sep sometime? Volumes are trending back down to 200k odd a day, with 15 million odd to be converted it wouldnt take much for someone who needs to sell some to pay for conversion to really either cap the price or push it right back down? I would have thought this would be continuing up back over $2, after all there are a lot more boxes ticked now than 5 months ago, yet it still seems to be languishing. This indicates to me the bears are definately in contol and no one wants to risk capital on a speccy no matter how promising it may be?



Not sure exactly where you're coming from. The oppies are well in the money and if punters didn't convert them they would be brain dead, or totally broke with no credit. Unless the stock crumbles to back below 30c, they will all be excised and there'll be 15m more shares on issue. Stock has been punished for a few reasons IMO:

1. Stock market meltdown.
2. This is still spec.
3. Money shifting around the RP sector.
4. Profit taking.
5. Doubts on Opex.
6. Doubts on future RP prices.
7. People needed cash to pay off bad bets.
8. Essendon didn't perform well this year.
9. HC cab drivers bought at the peak with their superannuation and panic sold.
10. AD hasn't been on Boardroom radio enough. 

If it gets to production, it will mean all's rosy and $1.25 is cheap.
If it doesn't get to production, back to 20c.


----------



## blogs (9 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Not sure exactly where you're coming from. The oppies are well in the money and if punters didn't convert them they would be brain dead, or totally broke with no credit.




Im not questioning if they will be converted or not, what Im questioning is how many will have to be sold, or converted and then sold to fund the conversion of the amount the holder can afford to hold. i.e if you have 300,000 oppies have you got $90k sitting in cash to pay for conversion....or......are you going to have to sell say 72,000 oppies for around a $1 to pay for the conversion of the 230,000 odd you want to keep. Of the 15 million oppies I wonder how many holders have the combined $4.5 mill in cash to fund conversion without having to sell some and hence add to selling pressure...


----------



## Sean K (9 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blogs said:


> Im not questioning if they will be converted or not, what Im questioning is how many will have to be sold, or converted and then sold to fund the conversion of the amount the holder can afford to hold. i.e if you have 300,000 oppies have you got $90k sitting in cash to pay for conversion....or......are you going to have to sell say 72,000 oppies for around a $1 to pay for the conversion of the 230,000 odd you want to keep. Of the 15 million oppies I wonder how many holders have the combined $4.5 mill in cash to fund conversion without having to sell some and hence add to selling pressure...



Yes, but if you have held 500K oppies, and now don't have the money to convert them, you're a bit silly.

(not saying you Blogs, but  not quite sure of your motivation for this question)

The people who have got themselves into this situation are small fry and static in the market IMO. HC

As I said before, will just be a blip if this is a longer term prospect.

If you're a short term trader, then play the chart action.


----------



## blogs (9 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Yes, but if you have held 500K oppies, and now don't have the money to convert them, you're a bit silly.
> 
> (not saying you Blogs, but  not quite sure of your motivation for this question)
> 
> ...




Kennas-motivation for the question is simple curiosity and trying to think about all potential impacts. I would hazard to guess the majority of the large oppy holders purchased 6 months or more ago, being a pessimist a lot of peoples portfolios have been hit hard since then and 'perhaps' a lazy $90k might not be as readily available as what it might have been for a stock by all accounts was heralded to be $5 by now. We have all seen the result of someone wanting out in a low volume situation when it got pushed down to 80 cents odd. I hold a small portion (sold out majority recently at $1.60ish) and obviously want back in. but dont want to buy now only for it to retest 80 bruddy cents lol so thats why Im looking at all angles. Especially the latest announcementthat R.P is going to come down in price 



http://fertilizerworks.com/html/market/TheMarket.pdf



“Phosphate prices are under pressure and the market has turned bearish. Prices of DAP in India have fallen by $100/tonne in the last week to $1,100/tonne CFR. India is the only active market for DAP with three further cargoes purchased this week, taking imported volumes for the year to almost 4m tonnes.
Elsewhere, demand is almost non-existent. Latin American interest has not resurfaced and European demand is subdued. The US domestic market is also weak."




Im very bullish on MAK long term, just trying to consider short term (i.e end of year) direction...?


----------



## Sean K (9 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes, I see where you have are coming from. I have been a skeptic of mid to longer term RP because of the potential supply, but have been ridiculed here and elsewhere and even called a 'downramper', for saying the long term price may come off....LOL

MAK need to start shipping asap.

I still think the oppies thing will be a short term blip, and may even be a buying opp if the price comes off.


----------



## blogs (9 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks mate, appreciate you P.O.V 
........................................................................................................


----------



## blogs (10 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Ouch!! Shocking open, surely retesting the sub $1 cant be to far off the cards..? Think I'll just sit this one out a bit longer......


----------



## blogs (11 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Again another shocker of a day-trending back down. Will almost certainly go sub $1, but the question is whether it will retest or break recent lows? Thoughts?


----------



## blogs (11 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well she is almost there, sub $1 any minute now currently $1.02....... Once she breaks $1 look out below.....


----------



## blogs (12 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I cant believe Keenas and myself are the only twopeople here interested in MAK? Anyone else out there? Thoughts for short term price movement???


----------



## Sean K (12 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Blogs, 

Lots of people are strugling with this major correction, and it will probably recover in time with the general commods market. 

At the moment, anything dug out of the ground is being smashed!!!

I believe that commods will recover in the future, but I do not know how long. 

I am a firm believer that Chindia will be the major consumer in the future... but how long.... guess...

My interest in this is that I am now holding about 5% of my initial investment, and it is obviously free carried. I bought a pile of stocks and options in Feb 07....

No need for intraday commentary here, as it generally serves no purpose. 

What is new today about the fundamentals or TA of the stock?

Thatś what we should be taking about.

Letś keep this thread taking about issues that effect the real price of the stock, not intraday noise. 

All other factors, already being mentioned, point to this being a long term producing company of RP with great govt and spear chucker spt. 

You are making me think that you have over committed here...


----------



## blogs (12 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Blogs,
> 
> Lots of people are strugling with this major correction, and it will probably recover in time with the general commods market.
> 
> ...




What makes you think Im over committed? As per my previous comments Ive been trying to gauge re entry? I think day to day commentry is very valid seeing how quickly this stock price changes-down 35 cents just from Monday!!!

What is new about the T.A of this stock-dunno mate, besides that big slide down from $1.45?? Seems the so called break of down trend wasnt really broken and we are back into a down trend? Thoughts? Thats what we should be talking about. The fact that it is getting lower every day is relevent and worthy of discussion?

I have been feeling that this would happen, that we would re test 80 cents and as Im not an expert I like to gauge other peoples opinions hence the request for more chatter


----------



## blogs (15 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well $1 is well and truely gone, and now 90 cents is looking under threat-I think this is worthy of dicsussion? Surely will retest 80, the big question though is will it bounce of it or continue down....?


----------



## kenny (15 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I've been a bit of a lurker in recent weeks for MAK. Nothing constructive to add.

Does anyone have a feeling as to where the funds are drifting into if they are pulling out of commodities? Off the table entirely or reweighted into financials perhaps?

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## zolow (15 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I have no idea what's happenning in the short term... for anything, life included 

Although, by the looks of things 0.8 will be retested, I hope its a double bottom and not a fall into oblivion...

only time will tell

Z


----------



## blogs (15 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Kenny, doesnt matter if its constructive or not-sometimes its just nice to hear what someone else hunch is 

IMHO I reckon alot of money is just being pulled out into cash-its far to volatile at the moment, and unless you are shorting or picking a few winners like a day at the race track its pretty hard going. Why would anyone buy on a downtrend (falling knife) when they can wait for the bounce or reversal of trend?


----------



## Sean K (16 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Personally, I rarely comment on intraday movements as it is normally just noise and should be restricted to HC fools. And, ex and future taxi drivers... Lots of those about to hit the street. Or, about to go back to school. 

$1.40 ish has now formed up as a significant issue, and I'll be lookin forward to that been beaten positively for re-entry. Might be a while though...

Fundies, for this company hasn't changed, and leads me back to why I started buying and selling stocks on FA and TA some time ago. Still have failed to obide by that, but another lesson learned. Another...


----------



## blogs (16 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Personally, I rarely comment on intraday movements as it is normally just noise and should be restricted to HC fools. And, ex and future taxi drivers... Lots of those about to hit the street. Or, about to go back to school.




Wow, you think the fact the S.P dropping 40% odd is for taxi drivers? A bit condacending there kennas? Nethertheless this taxi driver has done quite well out of this 'noise'. This noise has made me close to $150k this year, all through 5 simple trades based on the intraday week movements-how you can turn your back on such numbers is beyond me? By sitting back and looking at what I think the S.P was going to do I have turned a nice profit (by my standards anyway...), and am now looking at re entering at 80 cents odd at a much larger position, again amplifying my next trades gains. Maybe you are dealing in much more than a couple of hundred thousand dollars?

Can I ask then what sort of movement you dont consider to be noise? 

That asside, in combination with the Wall st bloodbath I feel this will still continue down-in times of uncertainty speccys are the first to be sold off as money is either put into cash or 'cheap' blue chips?


----------



## blogs (16 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Some intraday noise-MAK opens at 83 cents!! 67,000 available at 84...hmmmmm should I wait, still not showing any strength, think 75 is on the cards. Good luck to all holders or people looking for entry!!


----------



## blogs (16 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi all, thought I would bring your attentiuon to MAK today-incredible performance-bounced back hard, is now up 8% and buy side is stacked heavily at 734 v 259 sells. Definately worth keeping an eye on!!! Maybe there is some coming news, either way I have seen this before to many times to ignore, hence back in....good luck all


----------



## Pigsy (16 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Personally, I rarely comment on intraday movements as it is normally just noise and should be restricted to HC fools. And, ex and future taxi drivers... Lots of those about to hit the street. Or, about to go back to school.




Well Blogs. I think you had the last laugh on this one. If you traded MAK intraday today you could have made a heap as the day range was 23%. Overall though the stock fell by 0.54% from yesterdays close.  

Well done Blogs, I wish I had your stomach for it.  I should have traded it today as I'm still holding MAK from last May.  Anyway I only made 5% today on LNC ..... better than nothing.


----------



## blogs (16 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks Pigsy. I didnt trade MAK today, was looking for re entry at a level I was happy with-ended up with a nice couple of parcels of oppies (even managed to score the ones at 52.5 , just not at the volume I was after lol ) and the rest heads in the low 80's. Happy to hold for the time being now. 

MAK is now looking really good even with a bit of late arvo profit taking. Nothing under $1 and buy side is still huge, with a bit of luck we could see this headed up this week-seems very strong resistance at the 80's and soon as it gets there a buying frenzy is started lol MAK is absolutely fantastic long term, but to ignore trading ops in the meantime isnt my cup of tea 

Good luck all


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blogs said:


> This noise has made me close to $150k this year, all through 5 simple trades based on the intraday week movements-how you can turn your back on such numbers is beyond me?



Nice work blogs! You are a great trader. 

Damn, wish I made money like that. 

I'll just head back to my taxi...


----------



## blogs (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Nice work blogs! You are a great trader.
> 
> Damn, wish I made money like that.
> 
> I'll just head back to my taxi...




Thanks Kennas (I think...lol) I cant really understand where you are coming from-what you call 'noise' has made me and probably countless others quite a bit of money, why take ofense at that? There has been a few clear runs on MAK that any donkey could have jumped on and made a quick 30-50%. You are obviously a hold and forget type, thats fine, thats your perogative. I on the other hand am very inetrested in a S.P that falls and gains 30% as to me it spells opportunity, not noise. No need for nastiness of condacending remarks, you may be a ledgend trader who looks down on a $150k profit, to me I am quite proud of that and I care not what you may (or may not) be making. Best of luck to ya...


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blogs said:


> You are obviously a hold and forget type,



Sorry, you must have missed my last couple of posts since April 06........



Not to worry.

lol


----------



## blogs (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Dunno, but I did see one about taking profits at 90? Anyway Im not trying to pick a fight with you, came here looking for opinions on what is a very active S.P, if you dont want to add anything constructive thats fine by me...


----------



## blogs (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

New BBR interview..

http://www.brr.com.au/event/51316/m...entation-mr-andrew-drummond-managing-director


Gota admit MAK is looking extremley bullish, only 167k for sale, nothing under $1-wont take much to set it off?!?! Buy side is heavy...looking good gents 

Good luck as always


----------



## blogs (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

From someone else

At 3mtpa and RP $US500/t = @ .80 = $A625/t, gross revenue would be nearly 2 billion per annum not 1 billion as AD points out.

Taking off opex of $100/t leaves a margin of $525/t = $1.575B pa. Less royalties say 20% (NT Govt 18% plus TO's say 2-3%), then tax at 30% gives NPAT $882M pa. That is $7.80 per share approx. At PE6 = $47 sp.

AD also mentioned that MAK has a $30-40/t freight advantage for delivery to Asia compared to RP shipped from the Middle East and that they would seek to capture that difference. That's a nice buffer to have to offset any opex inflation that may occur and still give us rosy NPAT numbers.

Sure, best case scenario based on current contract prices ex-Morocco but so long as the Moroccans need more money why would they drop the RP price, as marginal production will still come on anyway even if RP prices halved. That is to say, they may as well maximise revenue while they can. And of course world population is growing at 200,000 net PER DAY


----------



## prawn_86 (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I think you would need to include some effects of dilution due to capital raisings or debt in those figures there Blogs, but even still it does paint a nice picture.

Now its just seeing if they can actually execute their plan quickly in order to take advantage of high prices...


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



blogs said:


> Dunno, but I did see one about taking profits at 90? Anyway Im not trying to pick a fight with you, came here looking for opinions on what is a very active S.P, if you dont want to add anything constructive thats fine by me...



I never add anything constructive blogs.

Nada!

Check the start of the thread to when YT and I were into this before reducing your standing any further.

You are also standing on a precipice....


----------



## Mackky (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Au $$ keeps falling mak potential profit margin keep increasing.

Ipl presentation had the spot price for rock phosphate fob morocco at US$480/t, on the 4 sept.  $480*1.2716=$610AU

Revenue at 3mt/y =1.83 billion.
And production will probably start in about a year and a half, as they seem to be on a mission to get the mine happening asap. 

Has anyone ever seen a company that comes close to mak when you look at a ratio of capex to potential profits. Very important now funds will be harder to raise, there are just so many mining companies out there with quality deposits, of various minerals, that are basically sitting on there hands dreaming of how they will raise many hundreds of millions$$$. Mak is unique very low capex/massive potential earnings. I have never seen another company like it.


----------



## Sean K (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Mackky said:


> Au $$ keeps falling mak potential profit margin keep increasing.
> 
> Ipl presentation had the spot price for rock phosphate fob morocco at US$480/t, on the 4 sept.  $480*1.2716=$610AU
> 
> ...



Mackky, if it`s so great, why do you think it`s so undervalued at the moment?

Other than galaxical financial implosion, anything else factored in to the sp to make it look like it`s trading at a rediculous discount?

kennas


----------



## eric35 (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hard to say why MAK s/p is so low. I am holding MAk and intend to keep holding it. I believe that it has good potential. Once the credit market eases, they should be able to power ahead. Raising money in this market is very difficult.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm not sure MAK is the economic miracle yet, their project requires rail or there's an awful lot of trucks needed to get that stuff out and I'd say that = high CAPEX or high OPEX and yes there's a freight advantage to final market if you can get up and running so it's a long wait for an indication for mining approvals and sit tight for me. There would undoubtedly need to be a capital raising, so if you get in, then you need to expect to put your hand in your pocket or get diluted. It' s a good long term proposition IMHO.


----------



## flipztacy (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi All

Just wanted everyone thoughts around MAK compared to other smaller mining companies? In terms of potential/resources/projects. Is it more stable then other small caps out their? with regards to current economic conditions im expecting a lot of small mining companies to struggle.


----------



## Mackky (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Kennas

Yes, I feel it is very undervalued,  I have been following mak for a long time and tend to take all info on-board.

Reasons/risks for the low price other than obvious.

-some people have doubts over transport logistics, however I am confident this is not an issue or transport experts (Bill Gibbins) would not be offering a transport solution at a set price. 
-the need for pre-feasibility results, laying out clearly opex. I suspect pre-feas will cover various production models including a super low capex option using contract transport and mining.  To give the project more certainty to the broader investment community independent opex estimates definitely will help. Suspect opex will be in the $90-120 range for the low capex fast startup option. This will be fine for the first few year but will need to be reduced though a rail link to tenant creek over the longer term. 
-metallurgy-very important and results will be included in pre-feas.  Early indication from the work rio did and what AD has said,  indicate the rp is suitable to be used to produce fertilizer and has low levels of contaminates. However risk still exists. Metallurgy could well be the reason DSO will not go ahead. They should have a good bit of ore grading over 30% but it still might need sieving/washing to remove minor contaminates. I suspect if they ship any dso it will only be for the first few ship loads while the build the benefication plant.
-Phosphate price-Morrocco have a monopoly on exported rp. They have threatened to produce heaps more rp and crush the price back to $100/t. This has had a significant effect on the share price. Question is do you believe their propaganda?  I don't. (will post something on this later if you are interested). 
-Share price decline (downtrend), a lot of traders held this when it went 20c to $2+, most have now sold this hasn't help the share price. Mak has attracted a lot of traders(bots etc) who don't appreciate the underling fundamentals, this also hasn't done the share price any favours.  Hopefully mak is attracting more long term holders to the register (who have done their research and appreciate what mak has) and next time it goes up it will be a bit slow and sustained.
I keep looking but can't see any reason atm mak won't succeed and be potentially massively profitable. Yes there are risks but atm they don't look significant. Nothing is ever certain though.
Can you let me know where you see risks in mak not succeeding, as I would like to discuss them. 
Cheers


----------



## Mackky (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



doogie_goes_off said:


> I'm not sure MAK is the economic miracle yet, their project requires rail or there's an awful lot of trucks needed to get that stuff out and I'd say that = high CAPEX or high OPEX and yes there's a freight advantage to final market if you can get up and running so it's a long wait for an indication for mining approvals and sit tight for me. There would undoubtedly need to be a capital raising, so if you get in, then you need to expect to put your hand in your pocket or get diluted. It' s a good long term proposition IMHO.




Mak has been offered a transport package from an independent consortium (ore from mine to ship holds). AD has stated this is inline with transport cost expectations. If mak decide to go down this route(i suspect they will), they will have no capex requirement for transport. They are also considering using contract mining. Mak will have to build a benefication plant(mostly likely a seizing/washing operation), on site accommodation facilitates, and supporting infrastructure.  Capex could well be as low as $20million(20-50million range), I suspect this will be funded by a bank loan or forward sales. (as it could well be paid back after the first couple of ship loads). Management know how to make $$ go a long way and are keen to protect their significant holding against dilution. Don't look to be any problems getting environmental/mining approvals as they don't have to go though a community consultation process(all being handled in house). The government seems as keen to fast track this project as mak and get their hand on the massive royalties.


----------



## Mackky (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

"seizing" should read sieving(or screening), spell checker and small fonts problem.

Just noticed mak will be presenting at the Mining the Territory Conference. Wish I was in the nt and could go.

EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
14 -15 October 2008, Darwin Convention Centre  

https://www.ibc-asia.com/iiroz/marl...EntityId=10044056766&entHash=254b3bcc0#DayOne


----------



## champ2003 (2 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Mackky, if it`s so great, why do you think it`s so undervalued at the moment?
> 
> Other than galaxical financial implosion, anything else factored in to the sp to make it look like it`s trading at a rediculous discount?
> 
> kennas




Because the market just doesn't get it yet IMO kennas.

Won't be long though. Just need a couple more boxes ticked and up she goes from here IMO.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Sean K (3 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Mackky said:


> Hi Kennas
> 
> Yes, I feel it is very undervalued,  I have been following mak for a long time and tend to take all info on-board.
> 
> ...



Some good points there Mackky. Main risks to the project are Opex and RP price probably. If one goes to upside risk while the other down it could put it into question, but that is all to be revealed. It`s an ongoing argument from the punters to the actualy future numbers. I am pretty confident it will remain economic in that regard, but I`m just a mug punter...The only institution to do a review thinks it`s a goer with a nice price target to the current, but they get it wrong at least occasionally...

So, if it`s pretty sure to be economic I agree with Champ that the market doesn`t get it yet. But I think this is tied to appetite for risk in the general market conditions, and this is zip at the moment. Perhaps if the dust ever settles, people will start putting their cash back into explorers. Just when that happens is anyones guess right now. 

The US just is not helping by bailing out the billionaires.....


----------



## flipztacy (6 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi All

Notices their two orders in the market detail for x2 400k orders at 10cent.. any ideas ??

cheers


----------



## eric35 (6 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Maybe somebody put the wrong price in? Or hopes to get lucky. Who knows

MAK, as well as everything else, dropped huge again.


----------



## Dezza (6 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Trying to prop up the buy side? If so, probably doing more harm than good.

Otherwise, maybe it's a wishful bid? Gotta be in it to win and you never know in a market like this. Might be filled by the end of the week! :


----------



## flipztacy (8 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK seem to been battered today? is anyone still confident about this share bouncing back to $1 range??


----------



## noident (8 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



flipztacy said:


> is anyone still confident about this share bouncing back to $1 range??




*Confident* is probably not the word that should be applied to MAK at best of times. The stock has been known to defy gravity though. There's always hope .


----------



## Sean K (9 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



flipztacy said:


> MAK seem to been battered today? is anyone still confident about this share bouncing back to $1 range??



Everyone is hostage to the current market conditions and the only stocks likely to go OK in theory are low cost gold producers, if the gold rally actually eventuates. When (if) the overall market finds a bottom and there's some stability foun I'm still confident in it, but have pointed out the unknowns in regard to Opex and future RP price.


----------



## Tang (10 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thinking about averaging down on MAK now. Its taken a big hit this week. Any other news floating around about this company?


----------



## adamim1 (10 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Mak was around the 44c mark today.. though not for too long.

With the potential of MAK, i think it is a bargain at 50c. It is just getting hit like every other company. Remember nothing has really changed about MAK since it was sitting up close the $3


----------



## Sean K (10 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

No more news really recently.

Revised JORCs for the Main Zone and initial JORC for Aruwarra imminent. 

Initial pluck at Opex looks to be somewhere between $100 and $150, so require RP to stay above $200 and more than $250 would create revenue of at least $100 a tn and at 3Mt pa = $300m less tax and royalties etc. Extrapolate for more or less bearish bullish perceptions...

Yes, been punished with the market but more so because of risks, but maybe too much as Capex is going to be pretty low and _should_ be gained from instos and the market even in this environment, _if_ it looks long term economic.

Specs and explorers haven't had a good 6 months.....


----------



## champ2003 (11 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> No more news really recently.
> 
> Revised JORCs for the Main Zone and initial JORC for Aruwarra imminent.
> 
> ...




Hi Kennas,

It's also important to state AU or US as that makes a huge difference. For example OPEX should be around AU$125 in my opinion as that is what AD is leaning towards in saying low AU$100 dollars and he has stated numerous times that it is in line with his initial expectations. 

Also note that at US$200 Rock phosphate that when coverted to the Aussie is AU$310 so that's still a whopping AU$185 profit margin which would mean a pre tax profit of AU$555 Million. 

We have to consider that the price of RP is still around US$450 though so I'd hate to try crunching those numbers as it's just way too good and in this current economic climate i'd be chucked off the roof of the tallest building.

I also recieved an email from AD yesterday stating that there is nothing negative that he needs to inform us with MAK and that the recent plunge in share price was purely due to the market crash that has taken place. Next week we have alot of news coming out as well so that will be interesting to read.

Yesterdays BRR interview also sounded encouraging.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## Sean K (13 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

One fugly chart...

Support shown on Friday around an old support level which is encouraging. We had a nice hammer a few weeks ago which was the foundation of a nice rally up to $1.50. Still going down till we make a higher high and low, and in a position to call a potentil bottom however IMO. 

Perhaps the JORCs due out will turn focus back on it.

Tempted around these levels but potential lower point on the XAO is causing hesitation.


----------



## Sean K (16 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Perhaps the JORCs due out will turn focus back on it.



Pres out yesterday which gives a clearer idea of the near time line for progress and when JORCs are due. Arrawarra not till November. 

All still seems on track here for production in 2010 at around 3Mt pa. 

Interesting AMP are no longer a significant holder. That support was handy and I don't like instos jumping ship.


----------



## Sean K (17 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> One fugly chart...
> 
> Support shown on Friday around an old support level which is encouraging. We had a nice hammer a few weeks ago which was the foundation of a nice rally up to $1.50. Still going down till we make a higher high and low, and in a position to call a potentil bottom however IMO.
> 
> ...



Another chart update.

A few red lines splashed about here to see the challenges ahead. Potential breakout areas identified. 

Hard to see any upward move until the market settles, or they get closer to production.


----------



## champ2003 (17 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Pres out yesterday which gives a clearer idea of the near time line for progress and when JORCs are due. Arrawarra not till November.
> 
> All still seems on track here for production in 2010 at around 3Mt pa.
> 
> Interesting AMP are no longer a significant holder. That support was handy and I don't like instos jumping ship.




Hi Kennas,

AMP haven't jumped ship but they have been buying more.

They aren't in the substantial holder category now only due to the new shares coming out of escrow therefore diluting AMP's percentage share of MAK.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## alex arigo (19 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

like minemakers as a long term stock if they produce in 2010 man this stock could go to 30 dollers in no time 200 dollers times 3 million is 600 million dollers in sales meaning a 300 million doller net profit for 2011 man ime buying forget the short term


----------



## kenny (19 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi Kennas,

Thanks for the chart.

Do you mind explaining the second green circle (?breakout potential) please?

I suspect the 50c mark will be tested before any breakout though. At least there's Arrawarra in November probably to keep the news flow coming.

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## Sean K (22 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kenny said:


> Hi Kennas,
> 
> Thanks for the chart.
> 
> ...



Kenny, _Around_ $1.50 is strong resistance. Check where it held support for some time, and then failed more recently. Looks clearer on a longer term chart. Around those levels will be a significant speed bump and a break of that region, and then a test and bounce off, may mean it's changed direction from down, to sideways, to up. Cheers, kennas


----------



## DowJones (23 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Does anyone know what the outlook on phosphate prices?

I think soft commodities will hold up better as everyone still needs to eat.


----------



## Sean K (24 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



DowJones said:


> Does anyone know what the outlook on phosphate prices?
> 
> I think soft commodities will hold up better as everyone still needs to eat.



I've been trying to find a solid review on this, but it's a bit difficult to pin some numbers down.

There is a report by CRU forecasts you can buy, but I'm not willing for fork out any cash on something possibly worthless.

The summary they provide is:

At the time of writing, there are major upheavals ongoing in the global financial and equity markets. With the global economic crisis attacking the fundamentals of not only the financial industry, the commodities markets and other industries have followed suit, starting with grain prices declining. We believe, however, that the fundamentals of the phosphate rock market are relatively sound. This does not mean that rock prices are not expected to fall, but that we believe that the fall will be  relatively slow, and the bottom will be significantly higher than previous troughs. True with all commodities, phosphate rock prices are cyclical, running about 7-10 years from peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough of the cycle. Historically, phosphate rock has shown a high level of price elasticity of demand, which we are now starting to see with rock demand destruction brought on by high phosphate rock prices cutting demand by non-integrated processors while high fertilizer prices cut into demand for finished  products by all rock processors.


----------



## Sean K (28 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

No change to RP prices during the general market carnage, no far.

Economics of Wonarah, no change, but may be improved due to lower fuel costs, and AUD movements.

Arruwurra JORC due in Nov.

Share price: disaster for late comers. 

Plans for the Dec quarter:


----------



## DowJones (28 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I think MAK will get smacked around for a while as they don't really make $$$. Wait to it gets closer to 2010 and fingers crossed on the RP prices staying strong. 

Whats the source that you should use to see current RP prices as it is not traded on an exchange like the LME?

Also, what do ppl think of the stock BON? Another phosphate player in Afria and Sth America.


----------



## Sean K (31 October 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Support shown on Friday around an old support level which is encouraging.



That support level was at around 50c, where a hammer appeared. See that chart. Updated chart sees a double bottom with another hammer, possibly forming a double bottom. Looks a little rounded on the bigger picture. Am I clutching at straws?


----------



## Speewha (2 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

http://www.yara.com/en/investor_relations/analyst_information/fertilizer_prices/index.html


http://www.tfi.org/

Hello,

No longer a holder but still follow the thread, hope these links may be of interest to holders ( hope they work)


Regards


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

There's a few charts looking like this at the moment.

A potential bottom of some sorts perhaps in place.

Still an unknown as to how much is factored in.

Breaking that 80 ish ish level looks important.

Great wall of china at $1.50 ish ish...


----------



## Sean K (12 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Arruwurra JORC out.

Great tonnage, crap grades.

Was expecting plus 20% and many punters (inc me) were praying for +25% closer to DSO. 

While there may be sections close to DSO, looks like lots of beneficiation to me.

Not what the doctor ordered.


----------



## Teefish (12 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Does anyone know for sure what their transport costs are? They are not positioned close to any major infrastructure and one would think they will need to move it by road up the Barkly highway before they can ship to their proposed export markets. My concern is that with the Moroccan phosphate having a relatively low cost of production and the price of phosphate still falling away they will be at a significant disadvantage. One would also think that they will be looking to raise further capital in the near future and in this current market that will need to be at a discount to their present market price. Interested to hear other peoples thoughts...


----------



## Sean K (12 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Teefish said:


> Does anyone know for sure what their transport costs are? They are not positioned close to any major infrastructure and one would think they will need to move it by road up the Barkly highway before they can ship to their proposed export markets. My concern is that with the Moroccan phosphate having a relatively low cost of production and the price of phosphate still falling away they will be at a significant disadvantage. One would also think that they will be looking to raise further capital in the near future and in this current market that will need to be at a discount to their present market price. Interested to hear other peoples thoughts...



They have been quoted as saying that the total opex cost would be between $100-150 which includes the transport solution. 

I think that's too conservative, just because I like thinking worst case.

RP price has not moved that I know. Still over $400 tn.

Infrastructure is the highway and railway and Darwin Port.

Just need some sheds, a fleet of trucks, a rail siding, and NT Gov is developing the Port, they say.

The plant is going to be the extra cost in capex which has been uncertain. DSO would have meant nil. Non DSO and they have to turn dirt with RP into 29% RP plus for export.


----------



## champ2003 (12 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Arruwurra JORC out.
> 
> Great tonnage, crap grades.
> 
> ...




C'mon Kennas,

What are you talkin about regarding DSO???

It was clear in the announcement written in black and white that DSO is a real possibility and that it will probably be in the main zone as that is where they have 35+ grades!!!!!!!!!!

Won't be long now and we will have another resource upgrade for Wonarah and then the scoping study followed by a more detailed BFS for DSO.

Alot of interest will start to flow into MAK soon IMO.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## champ2003 (12 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Teefish said:


> Does anyone know for sure what their transport costs are? They are not positioned close to any major infrastructure and one would think they will need to move it by road up the Barkly highway before they can ship to their proposed export markets. My concern is that with the Moroccan phosphate having a relatively low cost of production and the price of phosphate still falling away they will be at a significant disadvantage. One would also think that they will be looking to raise further capital in the near future and in this current market that will need to be at a discount to their present market price. Interested to hear other peoples thoughts...





AD has said recently that there will be NO capital raising in the near future. They have alot of 30cent options expiring soon as well so that will increase their cash position substantially.

Champ


----------



## Sean K (13 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



champ2003 said:


> C'mon Kennas,
> 
> What are you talkin about regarding DSO???
> 
> It was clear in the announcement written in black and white that DSO is a real possibility and that it will probably be in the main zone as that is where they have 35+ grades!!!!!!!!!!



I said there may be sections close to DSO Champ, but it remains to be seen whether there is enough to warrant removing the overburden to get to a small area of DSO. Sure there are some individual drill holes above 28% which is good, but it will need to be relatively widespread in one particular area to be worthwhile wouldn't you think?

The ann still states potential for DSO, but confusing to me the ann states that the DSO potential is in the Main Zone. 



> The success of the Arruwurra drilling is having a major impact on the ongoing Wonarah evaluation studies. Its relatively shallow nature compared to the Main Zone renders it potentially more likely to be the initial focus for mining and site of the plant if significant beneficiation is needed. *On the other hand, high grade mineralisation (35% or better) in the northern part of the Main Zone provides potential for an early Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) product.* Both alternatives are now being evaluated.




Let's be conservative, or any result less that expectations will be smashed in this environment.


----------



## champ2003 (13 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I said there may be sections close to DSO Champ, but it remains to be seen whether there is enough to warrant removing the overburden to get to a small area of DSO. Sure there are some individual drill holes above 28% which is good, but it will need to be relatively widespread in one particular area to be worthwhile wouldn't you think?
> 
> The ann still states potential for DSO, but confusing to me the ann states that the DSO potential is in the Main Zone.
> 
> ...





Kenna's,

The market gets it wrong all the time. People need to simply follow announcements thoroughly to keep informed. DSO was never meant to be for the entire area and has only been mentioned that a small area MIGHT be DSO.

Either way it doesn't change time frames to production, it only changes CAPEX. All much of a muchness IMO.

Now that results have come back from the extended drilling at wonarah they can see even greater potential for DSO out there with grades over 35%.

All in all a great result so far exceeding expectations all round. 

Let's just see what the PFS and scoping study results come up with.

I'm confident that they will also show up to be extremely robust.

Champ


----------



## derty (13 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

One of the pro's in Minemaker's favour is likely that it will be much cheaper to commission a minesite/processing plant in a year or so. Materials will be cheaper, construction delays will be reduced, there will likely be a significant pool of skilled workers looking for work (possibly desperate) so labour/payroll costs could be scaled back and the competition between construction/engineering firms to land large projects will be intense. 

In short, if Minemaker's feasibility is successful (the above factors will make that more likely), they can raise the capital and the phosphate prices don't tank then they will be in a very good position when things eventually turn around.


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bit of a curly triangle thing happening here. Hopefully it's a break up. Would be really happy to see a higher high above 77 ish cents....

Hopefully a good JORC for the Main Zone will assist...

Due sometime soon....


----------



## Green Machine (18 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Does anyone have the link or know how to access a recent broker report that had some pretty negative stuff to say about minemakers? Not that I am worried about these brokers, maybe some interesting reading though!


----------



## Sean K (18 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Green Machine said:


> Does anyone have the link or know how to access a recent broker report that had some pretty negative stuff to say about minemakers? Not that I am worried about these brokers, maybe some interesting reading though!



No, but from what I saw of it, the analyst is toast.

Claimed $1b capex which is just tripe. 

He'll be driving a taxi next week.


----------



## tasweb (18 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Green Machine said:


> Does anyone have the link or know how to access a recent broker report that had some pretty negative stuff to say about minemakers? Not that I am worried about these brokers, maybe some interesting reading though!




Were you referring to the SELL recommendation made by Brett Walker of State One Stockbroking on the CompareShares site?


----------



## Green Machine (19 November 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks Tasweb, I would imagine this would be it. I am involved in the ag industry in W.A. the word is from major local suppliers that phosphate prices will drop in February, but to what extent we don't know, hard to imagine it finding the levels that the broker mentioned anytime soon though given the fundamentals.


----------



## justiceotp (1 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Where can you find current phosphate pricing?

And what effect if any should the Acquiring of 80% equity in the Fraser Iron Project have on the share price?


----------



## J.B.Nimble (1 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> Where can you find current phosphate pricing?
> 
> And what effect if any should the Acquiring of 80% equity in the Fraser Iron Project have on the share price?





Easy one first - Fraser Iron - minimal impact. In the short to medium term all sp action will be a function of the phosphate story.

A little harder - Rock phosphate prices hard to find but recent announcements from CII would give cause for concern. 

On October 21 they report a profit surge for the quarter ended Sept 30 on the back of strong phosphate prices

On October 30 
"The company advises that it has had a sharp and marked deterioration in demand for our phosphate products as a consequence of the global financial instability now seriously affecting our Malaysian and Indonesian markets."

On November 20
"The Company advises that it will implement a shutdown of its operations on Christmas Island for the period from 22 December 2008 until 3 February 2009 due to the lack of demand from our Malaysian and Indonesian markets as a consequence of the global financial crisis."

You can draw your own conclusions as to what is happening to rock phosphate prices but a significant retreat seems to be on the cards...


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



J.B.Nimble said:


> You can draw your own conclusions as to what is happening to rock phosphate prices but a significant retreat seems to be on the cards...



Cripes, that's slightly unexpected. I never thought the price would stay so bouyant, but wouldn't have expected producers to be closing shop over a lack of demand.

How the heck can they go in one month from record profit, to the next closing shop?

Other quotes...

21 Oct:

“Our investment in PRL has continued to perform well, and this quarter has set the foundation for an outstanding year ahead,” continued Mr Brown.

29 Oct:

The Board remains optimistic that the company can weather the current storms and continue to maintain a sound financia blase into the future provided demandr ebounds within a reasonable timeframe and access to the resources on Christmas lslandc ontinue to be made available to us by the Commonwealt Governmenot on a commercially realistic basis.


But since 20 Nov there SP has hardly moved. It should have tanked. 


Short term this kind of development may seriously effect MAKs immediate objectives. 

We're assuming it's the same product, and there's no extraneous circumstances the Malaysian and Indonesian companies have gone through to have to stop delivery? The lack of information in those reports is pretty ordinary....


----------



## WRONG'UN (1 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Reference for fertilizer prices - check out the 20 Nov report - not looking too flash! 
http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



WRONG'UN said:


> Reference for fertilizer prices - check out the 20 Nov report - not looking too flash!
> http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html



Short term it doesn't look like total death and destruction, but weaker.



> *DAP*
> 
> There is no change in the DAP market this week. Demand is almost totally lacking and will remain so for several more weeks at least. The next sizeable chunk of buying is expected to be in India during December. Low rates of DAP production in India during Q4 will lead to a shortage of material, which will have to be covered by imports.
> 
> ...




The graph looks a bit toppy going into mid 09... 

Wonder what alchemy they've used to come up with that projection?


----------



## justiceotp (1 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Oh well maybe they can make some money out of the Uranium they announced today then. Hoping these guys come out of it all OK bought a fair bit of them for the long haul.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (2 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> Oh well maybe they can make some money out of the Uranium they announced today then. Hoping these guys come out of it all OK bought a fair bit of them for the long haul.




The Fraser iron announcement is all very nice but a bit long termish. Then along comes the Uranium announcement which doesn't seem to add up to much - feels like a bit of a pump to keep the options in the money until expiry at end of December. I expect the Wonarah JORC and scoping study will be towards the end of December for similar reason. I still like this for the long term but the volatility is starting to make my head spin...


----------



## J.B.Nimble (3 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

More on the short term price and market action in the fertiliser market
http://seekingalpha.com/article/108762-mosaic-pre-announces-production-cuts?source=article_lb_articles

The last time we saw DAP prices at 500 to 550USD/T was back at the start of the year when RP was heading up through the 150 to 200USD/T range. The big question now is whether the price will bottom above the as yet unknown opex number.


----------



## rockhound (9 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

greenmachine,  this is copy of the original recommendation by Walker.

"Minemakers (MAK)

We are starting to see a sharp downturn in demand for phosphate products as a result of the global credit crisis. MAK is still quoting prices of US$450-to-US$500 a tonne free on board from Morocco. While this may be the case right now, the next round of price negotiations will almost certainly see a sharp fall in the price of phosphate. The MAK operation was always going to be high cost, and with little chance of raising the $1 billion of capital expenditure required anytime soon, this project is going nowhere fast. For those still sitting on a 300 per cent gain prior to the initial phosphate announcement, we recommend you take your sizable profit. 

Brett Walker
STATE ONE STOCKBROKING"


note it has been ammended, and the revised version calls to 50/t RP pricing for its logic, also bogus IMO.

regards


----------



## J.B.Nimble (10 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes, the offending brokers report was rightly discredited as a piece of trash. As AD pointed out the guy clearly hadn't read the announcments or he would have understood that the intended development was going to be perhaps 50million rather than the billion dollar development that he mentioned. As AD points out this is the clear distinction between Wonarah and competing phosphate projects. 

And he is probably jumping a bit ahead to claim a retreat back to $50/T for RP prices.

However, in the short term RP prices do have a big questionmark. RP prices are hard to find but DAP is probably a good pointer. Prices are now 450 to 500 USD/T and heading south - down from 1000 USD/T not so long ago. Given that RP is a feed stock for production of DAP there should be a correlation to DAP prices. At 450 to 500 USD/T we are back to the prices prevailing between April 07 and Jan 08. RP prices at that time...? MAKs presentations have a chart showing RP moving from about 75 USD/T in September07 up to 150 USD/T in December 07. At this price we are back in to marginal territory - for the short term at least.

In the meantime we have a whole bunch of options set to exercise by Dec 31. There seems to be a steady stream of announcements coming through to keep the interest up until they have the cash. I doubt that we will hear any mention of RP price until early in the new year at which stage the immediate fund collection issue has been dealt with. 

As the options are exercised we will probably see bit of downward pressure on sp with profit taking. 

In the short term I am expecting a move down. After that, who knows...


----------



## Sean K (16 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK due for resource upgrade at Wonarah.

Already have over 200Mt which is supposed to be significantly expanded. I wonder if they'll pluck the billions of tons inferred by the previous owners pre JORC. 

Last pres regarding timelines etc:

*100% owned by Minemakers*

 Currently 203Mt JORC compliant Inferred Resource
*Substantial resource increases expected to be announced by year end*
 Aiming for production in 2010
Development favoured by key infrastructure already in
place

*Major Project Status granted by Government*

 Aiming to be a low CAPEX producer
 Stage 1 production planned at 3Mtpa
 Expanding studies to include Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) alternative so as to minimise CAPEX and enhance early production capability
 Targeting Asian markets where we have a freight advantage
 Supportive Traditional Owners


----------



## justiceotp (18 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

See the new announcement this morning.

Main Zone Deposit Quadrupled
and focusing on early start

should do alright today


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> See the new announcement this morning.
> 
> Main Zone Deposit Quadrupled
> and focusing on early start
> ...




Good tonnage, but grades just OK. Previous was 23%...

Likely opex at the top end of my liking, and will probably expand.

Question is, will RP stay well above $150 tn to keep it feasable? The way DAP is going, who knows. Fingers crossed farmers keep buying **** for their lawns. 

I'm not sure about OK today. Needed to be surprisingly good and this isn't to me. This is well factored in. Hope I'm wrong.


ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
WONARAH PHOSPHATE PROJECT
RESOURCE INCREASE, MINE PLANNING AND COSTS UPDATE
18 December 2008

HIGHLIGHTS
• Major increase in inferred resource at Main Zone Deposit – quadrupled to
330Mt at 18.9% P2O5
• Minemakers now has Australia’s biggest phosphate resource: combined
with the Arruwurra Deposit it totals 461Mt
• Focus now on early start, Stage 1 Direct Shipping Ore operation
• Beneficiation project planned as Stage 2 operation
• Ongoing studies on Direct Shipping Ore indentify capital costs of AU$75 -
$100M and operating costs of about AU$150 per tonne
• Targeting first production in about a year


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I'm not sure about OK today. Needed to be surprisingly good and this isn't to me. This is well factored in. Hope I'm wrong.



I'm right.



But still intraday. 

Might end ok, or not.

Chart wise goin no where but to the dunny.


----------



## muzzza (18 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I'm right.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I take it your a holder Kennas.. Was having a look into this one but can't seem to get on top of it.. Expected it to go up today but going down..


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



muzzza said:


> I take it your a holder Kennas.. Was having a look into this one but can't seem to get on top of it.. Expected it to go up today but going down..



Yes, bought 100s of 1000s of these about 3 years ago. Still holding a few, but just a fraction of my original holdings, but still significant. I thought being 'free carried' meant you could be happy with watching a stock go pear. Not the case. I'm going out to buy one of these tomorrow to remind me.


----------



## Sean K (22 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK still being sold due to market conditions and maybe justifiable for the update on Wonarah approximate costs. AD reakons they're being conservative on the $150tn capex, but do these things EVER come in on budget forcast a year or so in advance? 

However, I'm tending to agree with long term prospects for poo products once the market hits a bottom, sometime between now and July 3009 perhaps. Opps, was that a 3? eeeeeek!

In the Oz today:

*Phosphate market set to remain tight *
PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby | December 22, 2008 
Article from:  The Australian 

KING Mohammed VI of Morocco, it was reported recently, is the fifth wealthiest royal in the world with his personal $US1.5 billion fortune based largely on selling phosphate, of which his country is the world's largest producer.

He -- and Morocco -- plan to remain the Saudi Arabia of phosphate. The North African state is apparently refusing to budge from its asking price of $US400 a tonne of phosphate rock. 

Rock has gone from $US200/t this time last year to $US400 in March; $US500 in June. There have been reports that Jordan has been selling at $US350/t but, if the Moroccans stick to their guns, the market will be tight. 

In the short term this might not matter, as the world in recent months has been under-fertilising. The cost of fertilisers, along with the inability of farmers (in the US particularly) to get loans to buy this product, has resulted in big cuts to applications on farm land. 

This will, inevitably, affect crop yields and already bodies such as the Food & Agricultural Organisation are warning of increased famine around the world. It was a sign of the times that earlier this month New York-listed The Mosaic Co, the world's largest producer of phosphates, reported a 38 per cent drop in sales volumes for the preceding three months. 

As for local investors, they have -- after initially leaping head-first into anything related to phosphate and potash -- gone quite lukewarm on the whole idea of soft commodities (another "stronger for longer" busted flush). 

The news out of Warrnambool Cheese & Butter Factory (WCB) after Friday's close won't help. Business there has "softened considerably" due to the unexpected and substantial reduction in world dairy prices over the past few weeks. 

There will also be write-downs of inventory and adjustments of foreign exchange contracts to take into account the dollar depreciation. 

The stock, which went above $5 on the news that WCB was going to own half of Dairy Farmers' cheese business, closed at $3.78. 

BUT Andrew Drummond, who runs Minemakers (MAK), is not worried by this. The world has got to eat, and the imperatives of food production will, he argues, mean that phosphate prices will be off again within 12 months. Incidentally, the world's largest potash producer, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, is predicting shortages in the next few years as fertiliser demand recovers. 

Drummond believes he can get phosphate rock from the Wonarah project across the wharves at Darwin for around $US100/t. The company claims to have Australia's largest phosphate resource at 461 million tonnes and he is now looking to raise around $100 million to allow the first phosphate to be loaded on a train to Darwin in just over 12 months.


----------



## kirtdog (31 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

whats the future looking like?? personally would think theyre on the way back up but would like some1 elses opinion before i look to buy in..


----------



## eric35 (31 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Personally, I would not get into MAK yet. I would prefer to wait until the sp moves up a bit with bigger volume.

The daily chart does not look good at all. I tried to insert the chart here, but did not know how.

regards


----------



## Sean K (31 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



eric35 said:


> Personally, I would not get into MAK yet. I would prefer to wait until the sp moves up a bit with bigger volume.
> 
> The daily chart does not look good at all. I tried to insert the chart here, but did not know how.
> 
> regards



Eric, do a search on 'how to install charts in three easy steps' and you'll be on top of it.

I agree with you on the comment on MAK. It's in a medium to long term down trend and teatering on some support which if broken looks disasterous. As a new investor I wouldn't be buying anything in this climate for anything other than a short term trade with a tight stop, or a 10 year horizon. 

The funnymentals of many companies have been shot to pieces by the credit crisis, which doesn't look to be over any time soon and has hardly touched Australia, yet. Just a question of how much of the known unknowns are factored in...

In the LONG term, I think RP prices will hold up enough to make this economincal, but there's potential for farmers to all go bankrupt along with the rest of us shortly, and not be buying any type of **** to grow their unwanted crops....

Or, grab the knife, and see how much blood you can lose before carking it. 



(no buy or sell recommendations intended)


----------



## Sean K (31 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



eric35 said:


> Personally, I would not get into MAK yet. I would prefer to wait until the sp moves up a bit with bigger volume.
> 
> The daily chart does not look good at all. I tried to insert the chart here, but did not know how.
> 
> regards



Eric, do a search on 'how to install charts in three easy steps' and you'll be on top of it.

I agree with you on the comment on MAK. It's in a medium to long term down trend and teatering on some support which if broken looks disasterous. As a new investor I wouldn't be buying anything in this climate for anything other than a short term trade with a tight stop, or a 10 year horizon. 

The funnymentals of many companies have been shot to pieces by the credit crisis, which doesn't look to be over any time soon and has hardly touched Australia, yet. Just a question of how much of the known unknowns are factored in...

In the LONG term, I think RP prices will hold up enough to make this economincal, but there's potential for farmers to all go bankrupt along with the rest of us shortly, and not be buying any type of **** to grow their unwanted crops....

Or, grab the knife, and see how much blood you can lose before carking it.


----------



## justiceotp (31 December 2008)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes it's hard to make a call on this one, but i'm of the opinion that phosphate eventually has to be used to keep world food production in order, one of the reasons phosphate has dropped off is as farmers have tried to grow crops especially corn without phosphate as the costs were very high but in return have gotten very low yields. Its also a bad time of the year to judge phosphate pricing. But I'm banking on once we get back into the main period of phosphate use that demand goes back up and in turn pricing. These guys have currently got about 100 mil in the bank and debt free but will need to raise funds a bit down the track. I've got a fair bit of this stock and holding for the long term.


----------



## justiceotp (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Anyone got any thoughts here on potential with Uranium, MAK hold a couple of sites in Tasmania and discovered some more in November at one of the sites. Just wondering if it may come into play with the price of Uranium going up.


----------



## michael_selway (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> Anyone got any thoughts here on potential with Uranium, MAK hold a couple of sites in Tasmania and discovered some more in November at one of the sites. Just wondering if it may come into play with the price of Uranium going up.




HI Looks good






*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS -4.8 -11.0 9.0 488.0 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *



> 2008 ended with MAK at 47c and option pressure is now
> out of the way.
> 2009 with DSO and in production will be see a huge result
> for MAK with RP at 300 USD.
> ...




Thx

MS


----------



## Sean K (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



michael_selway said:


> HI Looks good
> 
> 
> 
> ...



MS, there's a number of faults with that back of the envelope valuation.

Firstly, opex will be around $150, not $100 as guessed. 

Then, the DSO and shares on issue assumptions are very optimistic. One hole bringing back over 28% does not make a DSO operation. Non DSO will lead to the need for a beneficiation plant, which could quadruple the shares on issue on a financing. 

Looks like a HC ramp to me.

(holding)


----------



## justiceotp (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

$16 a share  also when the director bought those shares on your chart phosphate was about $1100/tonne its now around $400/tonne on low demand, would be nice to see it stop dropping and head upward a little would be good for the SP of MAK.

Hey Kennas you got any thoughts on MAK and Uranium ?


----------



## michael_selway (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> $16 a share  also when the director bought those shares on your chart phosphate was about $1100/tonne its now around $400/tonne on low demand, would be nice to see it stop dropping and head upward a little would be good for the SP of MAK.
> 
> Hey Kennas you got any thoughts on MAK and Uranium ?




Hey Justiceop, thats true

Btw do you know any free up to date live price history charts of phoshate etc? 

thx

MS


----------



## kam75 (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

We haven't had a higher-high, higher-low to suggest a change of trend yet but if I was a gambler, i'd reckon it's hit bottom around the 40c level.


----------



## Adam A (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Justiceotp 
I think youll find that DAP was priced at $1100.00 a tonne,not rock phosphate.(RP)

My research shows me that the high for RP was about $500.00 us a tonne out of Morrocco in about june/ july 08

As far as i can see, i think that the last price quoted was $350.00 us a tonne out of Jordon, not sure of latest price out of Morrocco.

IMHO this share has potential but still a speccy,if all goes well it could fly,need to find out quality of RP re contaminates also DSO if they have it and how much?also opex and capex are still up in the air 

They do have other options other than RP but i dont believe any $ value has been attributed to these The minemakers website has heaps of info,very proactive management  imho


----------



## Solarfuture (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Phosphate demand from Asia still is looking strong!
Bleow is the planned purchase in 2009 in Vietnam.
"1.6 million tonnes of phosphate"

http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/business/030109/investment_v.htm


Last updated: 16:37 - January 3, 2009 


Vietnam to import 750,000 tonnes of urea 



Nhan Dan - Vietnam will have to import only 750,000 tonnes of urea in 2009, according to estimations by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

The ministry estimates that Vietnam will need around 7.8 million tonnes of fertiliser in 2009, including 1.7 million tonnes of urea, 1.85 million tonnes of NPK and 0.7 million tonnes of DAP, 1.6 million tonnes of phosphate. 

Currently, Ninh Binh and Phu My urea fertiliser plants can produce 0.95 million tonnes of urea annually

The country will also have to import 0.45-0.5 million tonnes of DAP. For other fertiliser such as phosphate and NPK, domestic plants can meet domestic demands.


----------



## grace (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Anyone have any news of what Morocco is up to with their phosphate production?  They were producing 29 million tonne per annum and exporting half of that.

They are looking at ramping up production.  Any ideas on how they are going with that?  I think that will influence the future price of rock phoshate as more supply comes on board from the worlds largest exporter.......time will tell.

Nice start to the summer storm season on the eastern side of our country, and the weather man is now calling a La Nina (hope I spelt that right).

Vietnam seems to be up to things with Morocco too...



> Vietnam and Morocco signed a deal in July 2008 that will lead to the construction of a US$600mn fertiliser plant in Morocco to supply Vietnam and neighbouring South East Asian countries. Vietnamese state media reported that an investment agreement was to be signed in August 2008 between OCP and PetroVietnam Fertiliser and Chemical Company to build a diammonium phosphate facility within the north African nation. The plant will produce up to 1mn tonnes of fertiliser per annum once fully operational in 2011. State media have said that this will be Vietnam’s largest foreign investment project to date.
> 
> Earlier, OCP said in February 2008 that it was inviting foreign companies to invest in its Jorf Phosphate Hub at Jorf Lasfar outside Casablanca. The state-owned company said it was planning US$2.5bn worth of investments in the next five years. OCP’s aim was to attract foreign investment from companies interested in gaining access to low-cost phosphate products, along with tax and real estate benefits. OCP produces around 27.3mn tonnes of raw phosphate per annum, giving it a 47.2% share of world output of the mineral, a 47.2% share of world phosphoric acid output, and a 9.5% share of world fertiliser output.


----------



## justiceotp (4 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes Adam sorry that is DAP pricing and I get it from 
http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html
Its hard to find a rock phosphate price.

Solar, in the article it says Vietnam will be importing Urea and 0.5 million tonnes of DAP but isn't the rest being sourced produced internally?


----------



## J.B.Nimble (5 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

To produce DAP, first react your crushed rock phosphate with sulphuric acid (H2SO4) to make phosphoric acid (H3PO4). Find a market for the waste gypsum (CaSO4) to offset your costs and then set about the next step. React the Phosphoric acid with Ammonia (NH3) produced from natural gas. Dry and granulate the solid product and slap a DAP label on the bag.... 

On the one hand - DAP is a highly processed form of phosphate and involves some heavy duty chemical plant and other valuable raw materials. RP is but a fraction of the mix and the value. If DAP price is down then RP price is probably down in similar trend... 

On the other hand -  think about the raw materials we're talking about here - Sulphur (raw material for sulphuric acid) spiked from 100 $/T to 700-800 $/T by August before crashing back to 100 $/T in recent times. Natural gas (raw material for ammonia) spiked up from 7 $/mmBTU to  13.5 and now back to 5.5 (MYMEX prices over similar time frame) so maybe the drop in DAP is all about drop in sulphur and gas price and due to manufacturers struggling to fill their capacity...

As much as I search for RP prices the only things that seem to pop up on Google are statements about the FOB Morrocco price from none other than Andrew Drummond. Wish I could find some independent source - meantime I'm left to speculate...

My feeling is that RP is doing what just about every other commodity has done in giving up all the 2008 spike premium. I think we will see a return to the 50 to 100 USD/T mark of 2007 in spite of the efforts of the king of Morroco to turn back the tide... his middle name isn't Canute is it? 

MAK can probably get out of the starting blocks faster than most greenfield phosphate projects but to what end in the current environment.


----------



## Sean K (6 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



J.B.Nimble said:


> My feeling is that RP is doing what just about every other commodity has done in giving up all the 2008 spike premium. I think we will see a return to the 50 to 100 USD/T mark of 2007 in spite of the efforts of the king of Morroco to turn back the tide... his middle name isn't Canute is it?



I agree JBN, it will return to the long term ave at some point. I mean, there's **** loads of this stuff in the ground, once the prospective mines get into full operation the supply will naturally reduce prices. However, there may be a period of sustained higher prices till that occurs. One year? Five years? Hopefully for MAK it's around the five year mark at which time they may be able to reduce opex sufficiently to keep profitable. The other side of the coin is demand of course, and at the moment, no one wants to spend money on anything. How long does that last? Lots of assumptions to be made for this one. 

Good to see AD converting all his options and spending $200K plus. Hope he didn't borrow money from Opes to do that....


----------



## shag (6 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I agree JBN, it will return to the long term ave at some point. I mean, there's **** loads of this stuff in the ground, once the prospective mines get into full operation the supply will naturally reduce prices. However, there may be a period of sustained higher prices till that occurs. One year? Five years? Hopefully for MAK it's around the five year mark at which time they may be able to reduce opex sufficiently to keep profitable. The other side of the coin is demand of course, and at the moment, no one wants to spend money on anything. How long does that last? Lots of assumptions to be made for this one.
> 
> Good to see AD converting all his options and spending $200K plus. Hope he didn't borrow money from Opes to do that....




farmers r still pretty liquid, in nz and aus anyway. low dollar, hi beef and milk prices etc. u still need fertilisers unless people stop eating.
RP is pretty good stuff too, just dump it on and it doesnt leach away too quick.
if farmers feel the pinch, they just dont buy too many new tractors, cars and boats for that year. 
easy quantities of phosphate/poo, has to be a finite resource. the best deposits went years ago from memory.
it doesnt dissapear like oil, etc, but goes out to sea or down below, and many many years before it builds up again. so basically its best to classify it as a finite resource which is being used up like hydrocarbons. a bell curve.
at least with metals u can reuse/recycle them relatively easily.


----------



## Adam A (6 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Having a nice run today!

Up 25% to 0.61.5 with nearly 1mill traded

Dont think theres any news due at the moment and doesnt seem to leak prior to ann, so who knows? 

Ive noticed that the softs seem to of hit a bottom about 2/3 weeks ago


----------



## justiceotp (6 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes it was a nice day today, be nice to see that a few days in a row. They got an asx query on it and gave a couple of interesting reasons for it.


----------



## Sean K (7 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> Yes it was a nice day today, be nice to see that a few days in a row. They got an asx query on it and gave a couple of interesting reasons for it.



I wonder if next time it tanks 20% it'll get a query?



Reasons given were people selling shares to convert options. Reasonable I suppose, except that was in Dec, not yesterday...

And they are in negotiations for a feasability plan on a railway from TC to Wonarah. That's going to cost a bucket.


----------



## shag (7 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I wonder if next time it tanks 20% it'll get a query?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




on first impressions i thought the possible railway option was positive. the way it was worded. plus its only an option.

the asx query was a good chance for him to drop a few hints anyway or a bit of free press. it was a better read than most responses anyway.


----------



## shag (7 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

also these r projects big farmer co-operatives should come in one. 
its the way nowadays, control the sun and water right down to the sale of the last piece of steak or bottle of milk. 
a lot of it will be exported but australasia will use plenty of it. nz imports all its fertilisers, only has lime and dolomite(lime with loads of magnesium).
farmers r holding off fertilising properties in australasia as they know prices will come back(in nz i was told by ravensdown to hold off till well into next year as the local works had a big expensive stockpile it had to chew thru before new, cheaper stocks become available). so any usage data will be artificial for a period.


----------



## justiceotp (7 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yes thats what I meant by interesting, there was no obvious reason for it but took the opportunity to give a couple of small plugs, that may have helped todays gains


----------



## Sean K (9 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I'm in 2 minds about the effort to build the railway.

Firstly, I think good long term thinking and if they can get the funds for it, woop woop.

Secondly, this was only ever going to be stage 2 of the development. Not first. Why change? Reason their minds have changed could be that they realise RP prices are going to tank and it won't be economical. So, road transport wil not be an option.

If two is the answer, and the funding's not there and RP comes off significantly.....

Anyway, I've got no idea how much 250km of rail would cost. Perhaps tigerboi's train driver cousin will know.



HIGHLIGHTS

 Minemakers and Australian
Transport and Energy Corridor
Ltd (“ATEC”) have signed an
MOU covering a financial study
of the economics of a 250km
open access standard gauge
rail link from the Wonarah
Phosphate Project to near
Tennant Creek.

 ATEC will manage the study.
Should the outcome of the
study be positive, ATEC would
manage the approvals process,
financing and construction of
the rail link.

 The rail link would be expected
to lower materially
Minemakers’ operating costs
and could potentially allow
higher production output than
the 3Mtpa limit otherwise set
by road haulage.


----------



## Mozi (9 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Anyway, I've got no idea how much 250km of rail would cost.




I have no real idea either, but can offer this comparison from the Alice Springs to Darwin railway construction (info from http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/programs/rail/alice.aspx plus my own interest in the project):

- Construction began in 2001;
- Said to have cost $1.3 billion;
- Is 1420km long

Based on the above, the 250km Wonarah link would cost ~$230m, BUT ...

Factors that make the Wonarah link CHEAPER (per km) than the Alice to Darwin link:

- No big rivers to cross (no need for large or even small bridges)
- No flood plains to cross (makes for better ground conditions to build on, and will require substantially less culverts etc)
- No ("mountain") ranges to dissect, hence less cut and fill

Factors that make the Wonarah link more EXPENSIVE than the Alice to Darwin link:

- Increases in material costs since 2001
- Less "economies of scale" for 250km vs 1500km project
- Possibly no government grants (was ~43% on Alice-Darwin), hence higher cost to service debt - which has become a real issue with the Alice to Darwin link!

I'm sure others can think of other reasons for cost increases or decreases, but at least this should provide you with a very rough idea.

I don't have any financial interest in MAK or either railway project, at this stage.


----------



## shag (9 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

i've a civil degree, i havnt practiced much but it seems a dead easy project, flat, crap environment, just run the dozer, throw down yr lines.
its close to a line too, so bring in all yr sleepers, rails etc in on rail.
but then to me many things seem simple.
obviously being flat, and no nasty off land construction, its an easy do.
also the gov needs to pend its way out of recession, plus construction companies have little work. i'd screw them down to half last yrs price due to this slowdown.
also as a byline, if yr rails ain't too flat, u just run yr wagons slower.
rail is so cheap to operate, esp. if u control it.

god this info, the option of a line, is leaked so badly over here. my useless mates tell me squat. 250k of it isnt much either and saves double handling the product, ie truck loading, then offloading to wagons.

i like the idea of a big phosphate mine in this climate.


----------



## shag (9 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

economies of scale dont hit this option either so much, like u don't need major machinery to bring in, and its easy to bring in.
i would assume its on pretty hard/consolidated terraferma too.
also there has to be plenty of contractors who could do this job dead easy from previous rail jobs.
i take yr point tho kennas re a posible reevaluation of delivery costs motivating this, plus the need for extra capital.
but i'd say some extra info has leaked out on the motivations for this and its logistics re funding.


----------



## Dezza (30 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Seems like MAK has slowed down on this forum. High option conversion, Qtrly released a week ago with relatively positive news but the SP continues to trickle down. 

AD must be busy these days...haven't heard him on a broadcast for a while. 

Not looking too healthy at the moment. Keep waiting till 2010...


----------



## Sean K (30 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Dezza said:


> Seems like MAK has slowed down on this forum. High option conversion, Qtrly released a week ago with relatively positive news but the SP continues to trickle down.
> 
> AD must be busy these days...haven't heard him on a broadcast for a while.
> 
> Not looking too healthy at the moment. Keep waiting till 2010...



No dezza, looking pretty sick. People are factoring in that they won't get the operation up and running and/or not have any customers to buy their poo. If they do manage to start digging the stuff up and be selling 1-3Mt a year at over $250 ish a ton then looks pretty cheap. If it doesn't work out, then back to pre Wonarah hype levels I suppose.


----------



## Dezza (30 January 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yeah, unfortunately that's the case with MAK. There's a lot of 'ifs' and buts' between now and 2010, assuming it does get running by then.


----------



## Dezza (3 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Some relatively positive news out today, with another step closer to DSO. 

Capital costs outlined as well. 

Still, not much volume so far...


----------



## shag (3 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

so with the report, any comments kennas?
seems they are outsourcing everything, not ideal, but maybe in this climate it will be cheaper than raising capital.
i'd like to see a white knight to come in, like some farmers co-op(ie fonterra...must be far more lucrative than investing in china's dodgy corrupt industries and having your technical expertise/technology ripped off and confiscated and then having the country try to tarnish your brand). 
little chance i presume sadly.


----------



## JTLP (3 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

That's a very cleverly worded ann.

Trying to shore up the amount of DSO they have so the capex and initial mining costs are lower (compared to non DSO).

Seems they are pretty pleased with the Arruwurra deposit grades and hope to turn that into something quick as well.

The outsourcing is favourable in this market. As soon as they throw around that word debt it's going to be a negative. By stating that outsourcing will minimize costs...people are favourable of the situation. 

Wonder how much DSO they have and would love to see an expenditure chart/table (guess that will come with feasibility studies) for when the DSO is gone and they have to pull the lesser quality ore out of the ground...


----------



## Sean K (3 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> so with the report, any comments kennas?
> seems they are outsourcing everything, not ideal, but maybe in this climate it will be cheaper than raising capital.
> i'd like to see a white knight to come in, like some farmers co-op(ie fonterra...must be far more lucrative than investing in china's dodgy corrupt industries and having your technical expertise/technology ripped off and confiscated and then having the country try to tarnish your brand).
> little chance i presume sadly.



I'm in two minds on some information flowing from various sources right now.

The drill results are good in that it's clearly over their targetted 25%, but by my understanding DSO is over 28%, so while just a few % may not be a biggy with some simple beneficiation, it's extra work. Then the widths aren't that flash 1-4m with 10-28m overburden. Now, the deposit is over a massive area like a big pancake, there's a poo load of dirt to remove to get to that DSO. I'm not sure why they aren't including the other minerals in the results. This is important to the quality of the product and it's saleability. At the moment it looks like they're being slack, or there's a pile of impurities. 

On the surface of it however, looks like they think all things are a goer, if RP stays up enough. Which brings me to.....

IPL announced today they they have had a big falloff in interest for poo due to various reasons. Mostly because people don't want poo. 

Particularly they saw future DAP prices coming off significantly in the immediate future. DAP needs RP. Thus, RP will come off. I'm not sure of the direct correlation but others will know, and I'm searching.... But, I have the feeling ... eeeeek!

Having said that, IPL see there being a bottom in the market for their products this year (salt yourself) and recovery in the second half, I think. So, if you have a long term view, and MAK coming into production in 2010 ish ish, then prices may be back on the way up. 

Will 100m capex come at the bottom of the cylce?


----------



## shag (4 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

thanks for that. i need some cash so i'll see.
its like i said, no farmer is going to throw on overpriced old stocks of fertiliser untill they absolutely need to. phosphate hangs around unlike urea(nitrogen) too. i'd guess many will hoard their cash for a year at least for pastoral farmers.
someone needs to question drummond on the impurities.


----------



## justiceotp (4 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

You have to take a long term approach with this company and the price of phosphate. At some stage the world is going to have a problem with under supply of food and that will increase the cost of food and therefore it will become much more economically viable to put plenty of fertilizers on crops to return better yields. And these guys are still a fair way off any production, I'm sure we will see rises and drops in phosphate prices before then.


----------



## shag (10 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

seems like a lot of enthusiasm re SP and the appointment of a overpriced salesman.
smallish volume tho.


----------



## Sean K (10 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> seems like a lot of enthusiasm re SP and the appointment of a overpriced salesman.
> smallish volume tho.



Yeah, lowish volume so can't read too much into it, although there were some low volume falls too that were a large part of the downward slide.

Seems they don't think ADs ramping on BRR is good enough anymore. I thought he was great value! Maybe he's just been swamped with HC taxi drivers calling him every second day and he needs a secretary to answer the obvious. 

Can't really see what this newbie is going to value add. Waiting with baited breath for his first appearance on CNBC..


----------



## Adam A (15 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Interesting broker report on the minemakers website

Pretty sure these reports are commisioned by the company they report on so take it as you please

Still it reads well,and should give potential investors a good overview of MAKS potential and future prospects


----------



## justiceotp (15 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Could you put a link in so we can see what report you are referring to so we are all on the same page.


----------



## jackson8 (15 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> Could you put a link in so we can see what report you are referring to so we are all on the same page.




this may be the report that adam is refering to

http://www.minemakers.com.au/downloads/MAK110209StrachanCorporateReport.pdf

and the report was comissioned by mak and strachan corp did receive a fee for it


----------



## justiceotp (15 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks yes that report does look good but it all comes down to the price of phosphate as long as that stays at a good level they will be good.


----------



## champ2003 (16 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Interesting broker report on the minemakers website
> 
> Pretty sure these reports are commisioned by the company they report on so take it as you please
> 
> Still it reads well,and should give potential investors a good overview of MAKS potential and future prospects




People should also be aware that Peter Strachan is not a broker and has no influence on where insto's put their money. He is an analyst and although his report is interesting the long termers already knew about these details. He also runs a publication called Pex Publications and I've never actually held him in high esteem.

Nothing new in this as expected.


----------



## shag (17 February 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

it does smell of more desperation, paying someone for a report. i'm sure plenty do it, but why pay when u an get some dirt kickers from fat profits or some reputable organisation to do their own reports for 'free'.
everyone knows generally a report isnt totally unbiased when dosh changes hands.
i personally don't see phosphate prices going back to the former lows unless the world breaks up. demand for food and biofuels should see to that.


----------



## Sean K (2 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bottom still holding for MAK at the moment, seems 40c is firming up. Market toppling over though, so who knows...

Good ann last week on DSO potential, but priority shifted back to Arruwurra due to recent drill results and shallower target. Not a very thick deposit but over a wide area. Perhaps they will get this thing up and running in the short term?

ASX RELEASE
OUTSTANDING DRILL RESULTS CONTINUE AT THE WONARAH PHOSPHATE DEPOSITS
27 February 2009

SUMMARY

 All assays from the December 2008 RC drilling programme at Arruwurra are now to hand and have successfully defined an open-ended high grade near surface zone of mineralisation. This is now the focus of Minemakers’ planning for the initial Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) mining operation.

 Assays from the first 2009 infill holes in the Main Zone have extended the area of high grade mineralisation considerably and underpin the drive to establish sufficient high grade resources for a long term DSO operation, should Minemakers prefer it, prior to construction of a beneficiation plant.

 Data concerning chemical composition shows that Arruwurra samples are particularly low in contaminants. Samples for marketing are being prepared.

 Despite the abnormally severe wet season this year, drilling investigations are in full swing.

 The Notice of Intent to mine and the application for a Mineral Lease and for
environmental referrals are on schedule to be lodged with the relevant authorities early in March.


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK takeover of BON?

WTF?

BON looks like a flee market to me .... 

*ASX RELEASE
MINEMAKERS ANNOUNCES SCRIP OFFER FOR BONAPARTE DIAMOND MINES*
5 March 2009

The independent directors of Minemakers Limited (ASX Code: MAK) today announced a conditional scrip offer of 1 Minemakers’ share for every 10 shares in respect of the entire issued capital of Bonaparte Diamond Mines NL (ASX Code: BON).


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This flee bitten BON is a woofer. What the heck are they doing? They've got some phosphate, but grades are ****e, and um, under 200m of ocean. Does anyone even mine phosphate like this? Crikey!!!


----------



## Bushman (5 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

BON and MAK share three directors. Bit fishy (pardon the pun). 

Diamond grounds are in the mouth of the Orange River (from memory) which has always yielded high quality stones. 

Dredging phosphate from the ocean floor - wouldn't that be an environmental issue as well? Imagine if they proposed that off the Great Ocean Road or Sunshine Coast.


----------



## select (5 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi MAK Shareholders.

Let me start by saying BON Directors haven't bought shares in BON since their Change Of Directors Interest notice on 29 June 2007. YEP, almost 2 years.

So MAK have proprosed a takeover of BON.

Lets think about it.

Drummond, Ellyard and Wilkins are Directors of MAK.

Drummond, Ellyard and Wilkins....and Woodborne are Directors of BON.

Collectively, all 4 Directors have 17,980,000 shares (excluding options) in BON. At 4c per share their holdings are worth $719,000

As per the proposed takeover, they would convert their BON shares to MAK shares on a 1 for 10 basis. They would then hold 1,798,000 MAK shares. At todays closing price of 40c, their new MAK shares are worth $719,000.

From what i can gather, BON isn't worth squat. It's as simple as that.

So what is in the best interest of BON shareholders? Or more to the point, what is in the best interest of BON directors?

Well if the BON/MAK Directors believe there is very little upside in BON the logical step would be to transfer your $719,000 worth of worthless BON scrip into MAK scrip.

MAK shareholders are being dudded and MAK is the vehicle that the BON/MAK Directors want to use to invest their $719,000 that is currently tied up in BON.

Let me finish by saying, BON Directors haven't bought BON shares since the Change Of Directors Interest Notice on 29 June 2007. So how compelling is the BON story. Obviously not very!

Do we all understand what is really going on?


----------



## grace (5 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hi select.  That is one good analysis.  MAK shareholders have every right to be cranky with this.  It's kind of similar (but different too) to what Michael Keirnan did with his Directorships in related companies I'm afraid (MON, MIN, TTY,IRL....).  The strongest one always suffers to hold up the nohopers.  Hopefully it won't go down like Kiernan did though.  

You should all send an email to the Directors of MAK.


----------



## select (5 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

G'day Grace,

It's a 20% dilution of MAK shareholders. MAK gain approx $2.5 million in cash.

BON has a 42.5% stake in their Namibian JV and UCL hold 42.5%. UCL's market cap is $4 million but have $200,000 cash and BON's market cap is $8 million with $2.5 million cash.

Drummond, Ellyard and Wilkins (MAK Directors) have approx 500,000 options each which expire in mid 2009 and 2010.

Woodborne had 800,000 options expiring on 30 Sepember 2007 which he didn't exercise and now has a total of 2,200,000 options expiring in 2009/2010versus 2,060,000 ordinary shares.

If the BON share price had a hope in hell of recovering prior to options expiry the Directors of BON certainly wouldn't be bailing out.

Instead, MAK is at its 12 month low and has now made a takeover offer for a stock that the Directors think will languish in the medium term. I make this observation because the Directors of BON will be forfeiting their 2009/2010 options. Obviously they don't believe these options will be in the money any time soon.

Welcome to Ellyards world.


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks for your comments people. My sentiment for MAK and it's directors has turned dramatically around. This deal has so many knobs on it, I can not believe it. I suspect a dramatic shareholder backlash over this, and it'll probably end up in a Michael West column. Unbelieveable.   

Or, it's a good thing? Happy to be turned around again...


----------



## J.B.Nimble (6 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

If Wonarah is supposed to be the mother of all phosphate deposits why would they need to go and get more...? Doesn't make sense, although on another forum someone was suggesting a considerably lower opex from BON's marine phosphate deposits - must look in to that claim...


----------



## Sean K (7 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



J.B.Nimble said:


> If Wonarah is supposed to be the mother of all phosphate deposits why would they need to go and get more...? Doesn't make sense, although on another forum someone was suggesting a considerably lower opex from BON's marine phosphate deposits - must look in to that claim...



Their rational is markets. BON to Europe, Wonarah to Asia. Yeah the Opex is quoted at around $80 /tn I think, so pretty cheap, but it needs beneficiation doesn't it? It's only 15% or something. Perhaps there's a plant nearby they intend to drop it in to? Maybe long term this is a good play.


----------



## exgeo (7 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Warwick Grigor in this week's market comments didn't seem too impressed with the BON deal. He made the point that if BON shareholders had wanted MAK stock, they could have bought it on-market. He also noted that in these cases, the stock of the acquirer always gets caned as former shareholders of the acquired company bail out after the takeover


----------



## shag (11 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

they've got bloody uranium in the product. that might give the grass a spurt. 
i knew often they got the stuff from fertiliser plants -iraq, but it was a supprise.
dont know what acceptable levelos of contanaments are, but the consultant saying it SHOULD be fine or such to clients leaves some doubt.
at least they r putting out news and making progress, ie sourcing water etc.
did u guys hear the bloomberg report where one advisor said it would be farmers driving lambo's, and wall street, london etc financial centres will go back to where the dumb sons were sent. my guess is too many were sent there in the last few decades.
i guess if it goes bad, food, oil/energy, water(clean and unpoluted/diseased) become key. oh and the arms industry too.


----------



## derty (11 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I very much doubt if Uranium levels of 10-20ppm in the DSO will be a problem. Granite averages 4-5ppm U and can locally have up to 200ppm U (and people build houses on this stuff and clad buildings in it). When I was at Olympic Dam the limit set by the radiation dept for any specimens taken of site was 300ppm U.

Benificiation will likely see an upgrade in uranium levels, though this is dependant on if the U is situated within the benificiated portion of the rock. It is likely though that the P2O5 and U3O8 are associated and U would beneficiate with the P2O5.

I know with tantalum concentrates U3O8 can be an issue, I'll do some digging and see if I can find out what the limits are for those. I imagine it would be similar for P2O5 ores.


----------



## Sean K (13 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK are still being pretty bullish on RP staying at these levels and getting Wonarah up. Overly so? Not sure but I suppose they do need to be positive on their own project to get the capex. They'll need $100m plus.

How about these projections they provided in the recent presentation. $600m EBITA in just 3 years and continuing on and their current mc is what? $50m or so. Even if they get half the capex from equity it's still looking pretty cheap on their numbers. Market is obviously not as confident as the MAK director in charge of powerpoint presentations.


----------



## shag (13 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

i don't see the aus dollar staying too low against the non asian currencies either. hi interest rates compared to the rest, printing money in europe and america, and economy here ticking over fine.
i guess if he gets the 100mill plus capex then it only depends on costs and phosphate prices, costs which shouldnt be too bad in todays climate of required development and a less stressed workforce and contractors.
i can't see phosphate prices returning to the old low prices either, its obvious the world needs more food and oil/energy sooner than later.
it would be interesting to have an inside knowledge of his moves to get capex.
i guess we will know when the SP starts moving up, then an announcement.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (14 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

There is a degree of covering the bases going on here. You have had a fairly decent expansion of the share register through the options conversion at end of '08 and now with the BON takeover. It will end up around 117 million shares if I have haven't missed anything, and all without too much downside on the sp. Prospects for a decent capital raise from the holders has improved accordingly.

At the same time there has been ample indication of the willingness to flog off Fraser iron. There appears to be some effort going in to dressing this one up for sale.

Somewhere between these two paths there exists the means to raise the capital without excessive reliance on debt markets. The issue as always comes down to RP pricing and whether the pricing of late 2007 onwards is the proverbial flash in the pan or the start of a new higher floor for RP prices. If the pricing they show is correct it is holding up rather better than might have been expected but I would be looking for something to corroborate that...


----------



## Sean K (18 March 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Technically looks to have found a base as already pointed out after making successive successive lower lows. Even now, could be argued still making lower highs as seen in the major spikes since the topple over the cliff. Potential here for a higher high perhaps, but don't hold your breath. Will start to look much more positive medium to longer term once those spikes are higher highs. First step will be breaking though this .57 resistance and then the intraday high at .62. Then be more excited.


----------



## Sean K (9 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Technically, still going sideways, no higher highs of any significance, no news, reason to post.

Except today, it seems BON have accepted the TO offer, which to me is STUPID for MAK. I am really disappointed in this jobs for the boys behind closed doors scam. I see NO value in this for MAK! NADA!!! They ought to be concentrating in gaining shareholder value through their current portfolio than adding crap sand under the water in Africa for the value of the idiots who invested in BON, and themselves. 

Rant over.


*Bonaparte Diamonds accepts Minemakers bid*
April 09, 2009 

Article from:  Dow Jones Newswires 

BONAPARTE Diamond Mines has advised its shareholders accept a $9.1 million scrip takeover offer from Minemakers.

Minemakers is offering one new Minemakers share for every 10 Bonaparte shares held. 

In morning trading, shares in Bonaparte were steady at 4.2 cents while Minemakers’ shares were down two cents, or four per cent, at 48 cents. 

Marine phosphate mining hopeful Bonaparte said in a statement today that its independent expert, BDO Kendalls, had concluded the offer was fair and reasonable. 

It said the merger of Minemakers’ Wonarah rock phosphate project in the Northern Territory and Bonaparte’s marine phosphate project in Namibia would “provide for formation of a larger, geographically diversified phosphate producer”. 

Bonaparte suspended its diamond mining and exploration activities in South Africa last month. 

Diversified minerals explorer Minemakers is also seeking tin, tungsten, fluorspar and uranium in Tasmania, and iron, nickel and gold in Western Australia.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Considering UCL have the other half of the Nambian Phosphate projects I wonder if MAK have run the ruler over them?

I know BON was a good fit given shared directors and thus they already held a decent size of BON but if anything I think this is why BON went so cheap to MAK


----------



## shag (15 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

oh well another report out. i thought the bit about cadnium?(cd) levels being an issue for other suppliers, thus support for mak being interesting. plus requesting bulk samples.
still talk of the spur line, but i guess they r still fishing for financing for this one.....makes far more sense than trucking the stuff.


----------



## Sean K (16 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This is like watching grass grow. Hmm, actually, grass gets higher, this just goes sidways. Maybe it's like watching cooch grow then. 

Anyways, the quarterly.

Lots of nice adjectives in there like 'robust' 'strongly' 'intensive' 'strong', but within the report I didn't see anything of that nature. More like 'ho hum' 'boring' and 'hurry the f*ck up!' 

Interesting that they have appointed 'an independant study manager for the bankable feasability study'. WTF? A study for a study? They serious? The'll start forming committees to form committes soon and they might as well shift into politics. 

I notice BON has been seen as fair and reasonable by the 'independant experts'. I bet a couple of them are on the board of that company too.


Anyway, enough fun and games, what was in there? What have we got to look forward to that get the sp climbing up through some of this resistance?

Firstly, aiming to be in production in 12 months. Ambitious. But if it progresses at that rate, the sp should naturally climb leading into production.

Second, all assays are in from Arruwurra and being formed into resource estimate for the DSO potential. If they really do get some decent tonnage DSO, should be very good.

Thirdly, the have a rig looking for water. Golly if they find water out there this will take off!!

Forth, rail study in progress. I hold no hopes that this will be feasable in the short term. It's going to cost a mountain of Capex, which just doesn't exist.

Fifth, RP prices are still above Opex and make it feasable. If commods hit a bottom back there, then we might see an upward swing. If so, game back on.

Sixth, they seem pretty bloody confident of getting the funds to take it to production using the trucking solution. However, the corporate placement will come it at a decent discount I reckon, so watch out for that to attract negative attention.


Bottom is looking rounded, we need to climb out the other side. First step is still breaking 62 c. 


:sleeping:


----------



## Sean K (17 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Uh oh, Takeover for BON from their JV in Namibia. I hope MAK don't up their bid in response, they're throwing away enough money as it is.


----------



## shag (17 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

seemed like bit of a punt, plenty of conditions to me and unknowns....
mak must have seen this comming, i'm with the camp that why do they need this dog when so much else on their plate.
maybe mak/bon directors dont want it, just want to convert bon stock to mak stock?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Considering UCL have the other half of the Nambian Phosphate projects I wonder if MAK have run the ruler over them?
> 
> I know BON was a good fit given shared directors and thus they already held a decent size of BON but if anything I think this is why BON went so cheap to MAK






kennas said:


> Uh oh, Takeover for BON from their JV in Namibia. I hope MAK don't up their bid in response, they're throwing away enough money as it is.




Hmmm never thought it would go this way, reckon MAK should just go after UCL to finish it all off,

I think its wise of MAK to de-risk by having a second project on the back burner but doubt they wanted to get into a battle for BON, be interesting to see how it all pan's out


----------



## Sean K (17 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hmmm never thought it would go this way, reckon MAK should just go after UCL to finish it all off,
> 
> I think its wise of MAK to de-risk by having a second project on the back burner but doubt they wanted to get into a battle for BON, be interesting to see how it all pan's out



I never really liked BON, LN. Maybe I just don't understand marine phos, but the grades are crap. Where's the beneficiation plant?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey kenna

I think the benefication plant is somewhere past King Neptunes Underwater Empire but not as far as Nemo's place 

Interesting how UCL is rallying on this news albeit on tiny volume, one of 2 things, either punters thinking MAK may well go after them too or (more likely) UCL running up its SP to make script take over more attractive


----------



## shag (18 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

i dont really care about the benefication plant, its getting crap out from underwater which seems damn hard work and not very proven yet(later when resources become rarer, it will become common, like the underwater steamers/grothermal anomalies around the shaky isles).
im not quite sure the grass analogy is so true nowadays, as i learnt recently(a slow learner obviously) in nz paddocks are commonly reseeded from bare now(roundup or post crop), every couple of years and the grass revegetates the paddocks within weeks. it grows *sideways* i believe.
my point is this aint cheap but well worth it, and fertiliser is drilled in directly at the same time. ie far more intensive production(the grass grows so much quicker).
so if u can afford to do this u ain't going to scrimp on fertilisers.


----------



## justiceotp (19 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

We are heading towards a world food shortage so either they need to find new ways of producing food or they need to use more fertiliser to produce higher crop yields from the existing land they have.


----------



## shag (22 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

i looked at the price of dap in nz, nearly a grand nz a ton. that was the 2008 ravensdown prices, but i doubt its come back much.


----------



## Sellnobuy (22 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Mackky said:


> Hi Kennas
> 
> Yes, I feel it is very undervalued,  I have been following mak for a long time and tend to take all info on-board.
> 
> ...




I have put my hard earnt into MAK as I believe anything Bill Gibbins has a hand in turns to gold. 

If MAK get Bill Gibbins involved and the Tennant Creek facility gets off the ground they will be two huge factors that will get this project up and running IMHO


----------



## Sean K (25 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

:sleeping:

Knock knock MAK share price. Wake uuuup......

Actually, it's forming quite a nice base really and should have a shareholder group now confident in Wonarah and may not bail if we have a nasty turn down in the market. I hope...

I didn't notice that Strachan had been commissioned to write up a report on MAK. Good to get the word out I suppose, but I'm always sus on any paid for reports. 

Anyway, he's slapped a $5 valuation on them once in production.

_Strachan Corporate calculates that the Wonarah project will be viable at rock phosphate prices above US$110/t and at a base case price of US$160/t, the project has an NPV of A$783 million at a discount rate of 13% pa, or over $5.00 per share for Minemakers on an expanded capital basis, comparing favourably with the company’s current market capitalisation of ~$51 million._

And that's at US$160/t

Sensativites are also mentioned:

_$110 $160 $200
EBITDA 2012 $m * $32 $193 $322
NPV @13% pa $37 $783 $1,379
IRR 16% 89% 188%
Value per Share ^ $0.24 $5.07 $8.93_

So, at $200/t it's potentially worth $8.93. Thats nice.

Sitting down at a lowly 50c means those getting in here could see a handy return in the coming years. Unless the world does completely implode and/or RP prices drop considerably. I'm still waiting for a higher high to materialise...back to sleep...


----------



## GumbyLearner (25 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> :sleeping:
> 
> Knock knock MAK share price. Wake uuuup......
> 
> ...




The world needs to eat...eventually.

I agree Kennas...something has to come of this stock! 

DYOR! Just my opinion!


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I might be dreaming but is that an inverse H&S I spy down there?

Back to sleep kennas... :sleeping: 

Back to sleep MAK... :sleeping:


----------



## Adam A (29 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Wake up Kennas!!
movement at the station,be interesting to see end of day close? 
currently up 20%


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Wake up Kennas!!
> movement at the station,be interesting to see end of day close?
> currently up 20%



Yes, something up you'd think. Unusual for a flat day. I'm not getting too excited till EOD close though.

Chart's looking good at the moment. This is delayed. Actual price and volume at the blue lines.

Is there news due?


----------



## Adam A (29 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

News could come from a couple of areas
AD to give another presso in the states this week or next?
BON takeover at 44% (expect more if todays rise can be held)
meetings with locals still progressing, hopefully good news
Still waiting on updates on dso progress


----------



## shag (29 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

it is rather odd isnt it. i noticed it ramped up and wondered as per usual.
i guess some news will come out at some stage, and aisic will totally ignore the continuity of reporting and insider trading laws as per usual.
like really who can see value in the bon takeover, what am i missing?
i'd say some transport issue/logistics has been resolved or drilling results leaked out.
lets see the speeding ticket then the excuse that a report was issued rating the stock at circa 5 buks, a week back.
but then its late in the week, wednesday, so the boys at corporate monitoring r likely at the pub or local knock shop...


----------



## Adam A (29 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Good finish today,up 25% with biggest volume in a long time 2.3mill
Bon takeover is a plus, to my way of thinking.

Potentially low cost production with access to northern hemisphere markets 
a nice buffer if they can get both projects up and running.

Still a spec and lots can go wrong, but great potential imho


----------



## Sean K (30 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> lets see the speeding ticket then the excuse that a report was issued rating the stock at circa 5 buks,...



Ticket but no excuse.

Was the most significant day for some time. They are due to upgrade Wonarah at some stage and identify the potential DSO tonnage at Arruwurra at some point. Perhaps that's leaked out of the boat somewhere?

Looks like a significant break from the sideways move.


----------



## Sean K (30 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Looks like a significant break from the sideways move.



Well, having said a significant break, there also seems to be a significant resistance level around about here.

The lines tell the story right now.


----------



## shag (30 April 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Well, having said a significant break, there also seems to be a significant resistance level around about here.
> 
> The lines tell the story right now.




maybe it needs whatever possibly has been leaked out to come out officially to push it thru.
like whats the usual lag between a unusual rise and then an announcement.

if anyone can tell me why bon is so flash, in this climate, ie cash is king, sp is king, please do.
rock phosphate and its co products in aus must be king, as nz loves it, aus likes it, and asia will chew thru it, all in close proximity.
i hope drummond gives us(token) farmers a discount...if only for staying onboard a sinking ship.
fonterra has loads of dosh post a bond issue-very sucessful. i hope he offered them a deal.
ps i presume u guys know milk prices appear to have recovered, and they barely went low anyway.
as i've said before, nowadays its about owning yr whole chain(like the chinese presently), and phosphate is a critical part of that chain, bugger the king of morroco setting the price and supplies. this all is just small change for the likes of fonterra.
look at forest in 05, the chinese wanted a majority stake in his/aus resources, for a bit of liquidity, in something that was meant to help them anyway.
i'd rather see an australasian influence than chinese or n. american for mak.


----------



## Sean K (3 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Very ordinary couple of days since the breakout through 62 c.

What holders should hope for is for that to become support to maintain longer term potential uptrend, and it may signal a good entry position, which is what I am looking for. Already have a pile held from 2 years ago on funnys but a bounce off 62 and break up through 75 from here will be a great technical entry for me.


----------



## ojm (6 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Whats going on? 

Sitting at 58.5 at the moment. Down approx. 12% today. No news. Come down considerably from a few days back.


----------



## Sean K (6 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ojm said:


> Whats going on?
> 
> Sitting at 58.5 at the moment. Down approx. 12% today. No news. Come down considerably from a few days back.



Punters just love taking money out of this. Every time there is a spike, it is sold off. Check the last few months chart. People just don't seem to believe in them and want to get out at any opportunity. Are they the smart ones?


----------



## skint (6 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ojm said:


> Whats going on?
> 
> Sitting at 58.5 at the moment. Down approx. 12% today. No news. Come down considerably from a few days back.




http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0509.pdf

Here's a clue. Toward the bottom you'll see the RP averages for April at $125. ie. Splat. MAK's a goer with prices above $120, so there isn't a lot of wriggle room anymore. Even if RP prices recover in the future to stay way above the L/term average of $50 or so, funding for a 2010 start up will presumably be more difficult with the economics more in question. Basically, if RP prices goes for another run, those on board will make a killing IMO, but...........


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



skint said:


> http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0509.pdf
> 
> Here's a clue. Toward the bottom you'll see the RP averages for April at $125. ie. Splat.



Well picked up, and you are right, this is splat news for MAK if that remains steady. As we've been saying for some time, RP prices were the big risk. I wonder how MAK are going to display this information on their next weekly presentation? What are those prices in USD? Any chance that these prices will pick up once the economy picks up again?


----------



## ricee007 (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

If, in the current crap environment RP is $125... and we need at least $120...

What's the issue? Surely the RP price will increase as world economies improve, and BioFuels grow?

I mean, yes there is risk... but, if RP is currently above the target price... and eco conditions appear to be improving (US Job data, WorldWide Equity markets, AUDvUSD, etc, etc)...

Surely it's quite a good thing that RP is > target???


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ricee007 said:


> If, in the current crap environment RP is $125... and we need at least $120...
> 
> What's the issue? Surely the RP price will increase as world economies improve, and BioFuels grow?
> 
> ...



RP prices may increase, but probably not back to bubble levels. Long term is anyones guess. 

Opex is supposed to be A$150 tn, so will vary in USD according to the exchange rate. USD is heading south longer term imo, which will lower the margins.

Strachan's report valued MAK at 24c with RP at $110, so add a few cents for the current number.

Am I reading correctly that you think it's a 'good thing' that RP is around these levels? I must be seeing things.


----------



## ricee007 (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> RP prices may increase, but probably not back to bubble levels. Long term is anyones guess.
> 
> Opex is supposed to be A$150 tn, so will vary in USD according to the exchange rate. USD is heading south longer term imo, which will lower the margins.
> 
> ...



Increase from 110 to 160 sees an increase in value of over 21times.
2.35$ increase in RP for every 100% increase in price.
Using Straight line at least...in reality, it would probably be more than this at low increases.

So, RP is currently $15 above $110... so, this is 15/2.35 = 6.38 * 100% increases of 24c.

This gives a value of $1.53.

Completly rough calculations, and if you say I'm out by a whopping 50% (effect of weak USD, etc)... that's still over $0.75, or still well above the current share price.

Now, this is at a time when the world economy 'sucks'.

In 2010 when they start digging (AFAIK), the world economy should be better. RP should be better. Ergo, SP should be above $1.53 (or, at worst, above $0.765).

Surely the worth that MAK has when RP is more than 10% above what is effectively needed is a good thing, compared to the current shareprice?

Let's look at this one more time.
Current SP is $0.57.
If RP holds, it is VERY hard to see the SP being less than $0.765, or approximately 35% higher than current price.
RP being at this current price, given the current crap economic conditions which are expected to improve (dragging RP back up with it), is certainly not a bad thing for investors which have had quite a nervous time with this stock.


----------



## shag (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

i wish i could get it for that price.
if anyones interested..

http://www.ravensdown.co.nz/NR/rdon...32/0/Ravensdownpricelist30January2009May7.pdf

nz$ so half it for us dollar

old news but interesting, as at the time of printing lots of sh-t had hit the fan, milk prices were at their bottom etc.
look at shipping costs too..i guess morocco is a long way away.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/623615/Co-op-to-explore-NZ-phosphate

i suspect its just lag time, farmers conserving capital for a short period, and the large piles of overpriced inventory they had to chew thru first. for rock phosphate the price jumps around a bit on that world bank site.


----------



## johannlo (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Is it just me or is it difficult to find easy info on RP prices?

Unlike major commodities e.g. copper or gold there's no site with a clear table/graph that comes up within say the first 50 google results. I actually went 10 pages (20 links per page) down googling a variety of words like "phosphate prices" "current rock phosphate prices" etc. with nothing except for a news articles and pdfs.

Only an amateur so I don't know where the specialist info sites are


----------



## ricee007 (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



johannlo said:


> Is it just me or is it difficult to find easy info on RP prices?
> 
> Unlike major commodities e.g. copper or gold there's no site with a clear table/graph that comes up within say the first 50 google results. I actually went 10 pages (20 links per page) down googling a variety of words like "phosphate prices" "current rock phosphate prices" etc. with nothing except for a news articles and pdfs.
> 
> Only an amateur so I don't know where the specialist info sites are



I found you had to pay for them -<Or use the link in this thread that shows its at $125 average for April.

I'm assuming in a m onths time, we can use a similar link to check.

As for spot prices... shortof paying, I don't know.


----------



## derty (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Johannlo, I found this link after going to skints link he posted. I don't think phosphate has an open market like Ni or Au so prices are only collated every month or so. The World Bank commodity sheet seems to come out on the third of every month. (edit: so there is a spot market for it, cheers rice)

http://go.worldbank.org/5AT3JHWYU0

I can't really see much else but MAK's price wandering south for a while until prices pick up again. Interesting to see where the support will sit.


----------



## johannlo (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Thanks heaps guys.

What a wild ride. I might end up as one of those 'profit takers' the longer termers in this thread are railing against (jumped in today @ .54 after getting rid of around some underperforming stocks)


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



derty said:


> Interesting to see where the support will sit.



You really want to see this zone of support hold, or the technicals are all over for a potential break up, and it's back to sideways. At least.


----------



## johannlo (7 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well looking at the selling positions there are a lot of sellers lined up at high 50s to low 60s so it looks like some sideways movement is to be expected in the very short term.

Is that a correct way of analysing it? i.e. that because there is a large qty of sellers in that bracket that will be the resistance.


----------



## johannlo (26 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Went through today's audio presentation and even with the PR filter on, assuming they're not pulling their figures out of their behinds, that its looking like a solid mid-long term bet. 

Easily developed current reserve, more on the way, logistics in place, govt support, 11 million in the bank and only 2 million burned in the last quarter = considerable breathing room for a small cap explorer.

What I really like from a longer term POV is the SP compared to proven reserves chart which backs up all the above forum comments about how relatively speaking its undervalued esp compared to the darlings BOW and AOE (mind you wouldn't have minded a quick 25-30% over a few weeks on them lol)

Anybody with any insight?


----------



## N1Spec (26 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



johannlo said:


> Went through today's audio presentation and even with the PR filter on, assuming they're not pulling their figures out of their behinds, that its looking like a solid mid-long term bet.
> 
> Easily developed current reserve, more on the way, logistics in place, govt support, 11 million in the bank and only 2 million burned in the last quarter = considerable breathing room for a small cap explorer.
> 
> ...




how can you compare MAK to AOE and BOW??? they are in totally different industries. MAK is looking for rock phosphate and AOE/BOW is in the business of CSM


----------



## johannlo (27 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Sorry wrong thread, I meant that for MEL not MAK. Stupid mistake I apologise for the confusion!!!!!

If only the edit button was active for more than 20 min


----------



## Sean K (27 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I was very excited about that recent run to 80 and almost bought some more. Instead, I saw the RP price topple over, so I sold. Been holding that last parcel for some time too. Was sad to let it go...lol

Could probably trade this within the box, but I am now going to wait until it's through that top resistance line before I get excited again....


----------



## happytown (27 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

mak has announced a spp

at a price of 43c (up to $15K or just under 35,000 shares)

with one free attaching option for every 2 shares granted under spp

exercise price 75c expiring 31/05/10

record date 12/06/09

cheers


----------



## johannlo (27 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

AAARgh everything's getting diluted. Explains why I came back from lunch and it went from travelling well to 10% drop


----------



## ricee007 (27 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



happytown said:


> mak has announced a spp
> 
> at a price of 43c (up to $15K or just under 35,000 shares)
> 
> ...




Oh brillitant, my ANZ is raising capital. My MAK is raising capital. My MQG is raising capital. My BBI needs capital  Not going to well here...


----------



## shag (28 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

so does this mean its not pro rata, ie my dribble of residual shares will give me as much chance of the 15k as some poor punter whos been in with loads of these suckers?

also does the record date, in the future, mean it will be worked out on this date, who gets any? or is this when u need to hand over the readies.
re the former, isnt this a little odd?


----------



## happytown (28 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> so does this mean its not pro rata, ie my dribble of residual shares will give me as much chance of the 15k as some poor punter whos been in with loads of these suckers?
> 
> also does the record date, in the future, mean it will be worked out on this date, who gets any? or is this when u need to hand over the readies.
> re the former, isnt this a little odd?




shag

theoretically yes

record date is simply the date upon which you must be recorded as a s/holder of mak (always remembering to take into account T+3), you have to pay the readies by the offer closing date (unless it closes early for whatever reason, which may include  oversubscription)

cheers


----------



## happytown (28 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

nice volume today likely ppl looking to get on board mak (and others increasing their holdings) prior to the record date for spp eligibility

sp up 20% on large volume today

cheers


----------



## johannlo (28 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Yep I for one am happy to be squeezed at 40c. That gives me a 50% margin from today's price to soak up the inevitable dilution.


----------



## topsprog (28 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I would not get too excited about MAK at 60 cents. I was watching the booktrader on today's trades - shares drop to 46 cents and suddenly shoot up to 62+ cents over a short period. These did not seem to be stacked buys waiting their turn but looked like sudden purchases on large blocks of shares that took the price to the next highest level - up they cascaded. Why would anybody jump in and purchase shares at crazy prices to get the SPP - in theory it would seem you only need one share for the entitlement and you have until the 6th June (I think) to buy the necessary shares to validate your entitilement. 

Think about it - 
a) rapidly dropping rock phospate prices (now below MAK's original estimated cost of production - that has now been dropped to less that AUD 100 - MAK presentation 26th May 2009), 
b) an unusual SPP with an offer to purchase up to $15K of shares to anyone who buys a share before June 6th 2009 - why would the average retail shareholder pay 60 cents today?
c) same day deal sweetener with announcement of tin assays from a few holes in Tassie.
d) same day announcement of Port agreement in Darwin.
e) day after announcing bonus shares to Bonaparte holders if get >90% acceptance.

I thought MAK was looking a good bet for substantial gains however together with Namibia business they are deep into rock phosphate that for all we know may go back to USD 50 (especially as earlier high pricing has stimulated lot's of activity in this commodity). With prices dropping I am much more cautious and todays price behaviour has multiplied my suspicions. Hope I am wrong as I had this figured as a good business.
Sold most of my holding past 2 days with view to getting back in at 43 if all else seems positive at the time


----------



## johannlo (28 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I did think the tin announcement sounded a bit irrelevant but didn't look into the movements in such detail. I agree immediate RP prices are a concern but as the above thread illustrates, unlike most other commodities its hard to get up to date info and know which way prices will turn. Thanks for your insight


----------



## DowJones (28 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



topsprog said:


> I would not get too excited about MAK at 60 cents. I was watching the booktrader on today's trades - shares drop to 46 cents and suddenly shoot up to 62+ cents over a short period. These did not seem to be stacked buys waiting their turn but looked like sudden purchases on large blocks of shares that took the price to the next highest level - up they cascaded. Why would anybody jump in and purchase shares at crazy prices to get the SPP - in theory it would seem you only need one share for the entitlement and you have until the 6th June (I think) to buy the necessary shares to validate your entitilement.
> 
> Think about it -
> a) rapidly dropping rock phospate prices (now below MAK's original estimated cost of production - that has now been dropped to less that AUD 100 - MAK presentation 26th May 2009),
> ...




I agree with your thoughts. I am puzzled too as to why the shares went from 46c to a high of 62.5c and eventually closing at 60c. I feel for people that sold yesterday and early today on pressure selling - who could have thought this could happen?

As a shareholder I was thinking that MAK would be floundering around the mid 40's to 50c. I am without answer as to today's surge - is there a rumour of conditions to the SPP (i.e. multiple of existing share holdings?) and who is buying? (smells like someone knows something not in the annoucements)

I do like their prospects with phosphate and its a bonus they have other projects like tin and tungsten. In addition, I do like the BON and MAK synergies - they don't need UCL in the long term. The NT phosphate $150 cost per tonne was calculated using last years extremely high oil prices and if they can implement a railway line from phosphate to existing rail network, they have some buffer. However, not a lot as last months rock phosphate price was approx $125 US per tonne.


----------



## shag (29 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

yes i agree, they say they want to reward long holders and help small holders etc, but then make an offer which is open for anyone with a share or two in two weeks time.
it rewards no one bar people who buy a share before this time.
its just like the bon buyup.
to me the large volume cant b attributed to some tin down tassie or a port agreement which was always going to occur, or many thousands of people buying up to get in on this vauge ssp.
the directors can easily grant themselves a few more mill of oppies and stock to make up for the dilution, and have done well already out of the bon buyup.


----------



## johannlo (29 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

If the 60s level holds I'm going to sell all but a token amount to leave my options open for the SPP. This is allowed according to the terms they have announced right?


----------



## DowJones (29 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> yes i agree, they say they want to reward long holders and help small holders etc, but then make an offer which is open for anyone with a share or two in two weeks time.
> it rewards no one bar people who buy a share before this time.
> its just like the bon buyup.
> to me the large volume cant b attributed to some tin down tassie or a port agreement which was always going to occur, or many thousands of people buying up to get in on this vauge ssp.
> the directors can easily grant themselves a few more mill of oppies and stock to make up for the dilution, and have done well already out of the bon buyup.




Totally agree... should have been only Shareholders on the register when they announcement the capital raising... MAK shareholders are treated as new share holders alike, so they is NO REWARD!!

Now that the price is in the 60's (apparent the jump in price was due to an analyst recommendation) should MAK up the SPP to be more than 43c/share?? It seems to be disconnected from the current price. This way at least will support the current share price and avoid dilution...


----------



## johannlo (29 May 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well you guys + RP prices have gotten me spooked. I took my profits at 61 today but kept a token parcel to keep my SPP options open depending on which way the wind blows. 

I agree that its sh-tty way to treat existing holders (15k free for all regardless of size of holding) and I don't usually like 'manipulative' courses of action like this but if I don't take advantage of it then its only going to be my loss.


----------



## DowJones (1 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Minemakers is on another torrid run...

Does anyone know whats behind it? Or people just getting in for the SPP?

All of the sudden the SPP looks extremely attractive at 43c and with an option at 75c for every 2 shares.... 

Will MAK revise the SPP?


----------



## johannlo (1 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Wow this is getting ludicrous (70c as I type). 

When do retail holders get the SPP docos? Now looking like a must buy at 43c, oversubscription or not


----------



## Largesse (1 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

well that was fun.

I'm out at 71.5c. 

Fib line hit at 72, may be a little resistance. Will wait to see tomorrow I guess. But having said that, it most likely will fly through it on the back of a green Dow and back to back double digit up days.

Left 1 share on the table for access to the SPP just in case.


----------



## adamim1 (2 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

where does MAK go from here? Aren't they due to start production in late 09 early 2010? If RP prices are low - do they just hold off and go in anyway?

Im wondering whether to sell off...


----------



## johannlo (2 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Sell up to 15k, take it back in the SPP at 43c, add as much/little buffer as you believe it will be oversubscribed. Assuming you bought at not much below 43c or above, of course


----------



## derty (4 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Latest rock phosphate prices from World Bank monthly commodity data sheet shows rock phosphate dropping from $125/tonne to $117/tonne. Still going down, though drop is possibly slowing. Mar-Apr = 20% drop. Apr-May = 6% drop.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0609.pdf


----------



## Sean K (4 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



derty said:


> Latest rock phosphate prices from World Bank monthly commodity data sheet shows rock phosphate dropping from $125/tonne to $117/tonne. Still going down, though drop is possibly slowing. Mar-Apr = 20% drop. Apr-May = 6% drop.
> 
> http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0609.pdf



Thanks derty, good to see the slow down, but it's getting outside MAK's perameters isn't it?  

I'm in two minds here with the price.

Is it going to drop back to the mean, that had held for all those years?

Or, is the demand really going to be there and on coming potential supply will not be so great as to keep prices down?

RP is obviously in abundance, which makes me warey.


----------



## derty (4 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

We also need to take into account the behaviour of the USD. A lot of the rises or slowdowns in commodity values can be attributed to the weakening dollar. 

When you look at the figures in AUD it is not quite as rosy. 
Rock phosphate averages (AUD); Mar-$235, Apr-$174, May-$152.
This gives the month-month drops of Mar-Apr = 25% and Apr-May = 14%. 

In addition wasn't the last opex figure released $AU150/tonne? Which places MAK at break even at the moment with the spectre of a rising AUD.


----------



## DowJones (4 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



derty said:


> We also need to take into account the behaviour of the USD. A lot of the rises or slowdowns in commodity values can be attributed to the weakening dollar.
> 
> When you look at the figures in AUD it is not quite as rosy.
> Rock phosphate averages (AUD); Mar-$235, Apr-$174, May-$152.
> ...




They did calculate the Opex at $150/tonne on last years high OIL prices. In the latest presentation they said that the OPEX amount included 'fat' so they still have room to navigated. 

I also believe in one of their announcements that the NT government might spend some $$$ in a rail loop project to connect the phosphate to the Darwin port railway line. 

I think maybe the 2 factors mentioned can bring down the costs. I agree, the variables that could make or break MAK is the FX and RP prices.

However, I am encouraged by the RP price rate drop wasn't as severe as previous months.

On the plus side, they still have Uranium, tin and tungsten interests (tin price went up). In addition, the OPEX for Namibian phosphate (as part of BON takeover) is much lower.

As always, time will tell....


----------



## Sean K (10 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I was very excited about that recent run to 80 and almost bought some more. Instead, I saw the RP price topple over, so I sold. Been holding that last parcel for some time too. Was sad to let it go...lol
> 
> Could probably trade this within the box, but I am now going to wait until it's through that top resistance line before I get excited again....



Still going sideways, but there's trading opportunities within the box I suppose. Just can't get interested in a buy and hope policy while RP looks fragile, to say the least.

Interesting short term set up here with a bit of a pennant on a pole, volume coming off. Looks pretty bullish.


----------



## shag (10 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

im a bit perplexed and confused i guess about the spp and the appreciation in the sp during that period. it dived when annouced, but came back the next day, possibly via a brokers rerating, and has held up.
lots of stock at givaway prices(the spp) relative to current sp, plus oppies, to anyone with one share or more.
dilution, people dumping stock once issued, but maybe a company all cashed up and maybe enough dosh to start production and look at getting that spur line started to reduce operating costs. and it seems u could dump yr stock at 70c bar one, and presumably get a chunk of it back at 43c plus oppies.
it cant be all that rosy can it unless i am missing something.
maybe they have stitched up some/the lower opex freighting solutions.


----------



## ojm (10 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Record date for the SPP is the 12th. If I purchase today, will I be eligible for the SPP? Not sure how long it takes for it to register.


----------



## ricee007 (10 June 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ojm said:


> Record date for the SPP is the 12th. If I purchase today, will I be eligible for the SPP? Not sure how long it takes for it to register.



The rule (which can be broken... very rarely) is Trade+3trading days.

As such, I would be outright shocked if you could go on the register by buying today.

It would be about as shocking as Geelong getting the Wooden Spoon in 2009.


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Resource upgrade out and it is very large as expected, but the overall grade remains non-DSO, which is very important. They haven't even identified a very small area to be DSO, which I thought should have been the plan.

Their comments on this:



> 7. The Main Zone mineralization is open in almost all directions but in view of the strong resource position now established, no further lateral drilling is planned save for a small programme which aims to close off a potential Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) deposit in the north west of the currently drilled Main Zone (refer Figure 3).
> 
> 8. Within the Main Zone, some of the DSO targets indicated by the current 250m x 250m drilling are likely to be subject to detailed infill and close-off drilling over the next two to three months. The infill programmes should allow some re-classification of resources into the measured category and some relatively minor adjustments to the overall resources estimation situation.




So, more wait for prospect of DSO.

Otherwise, Capex for beneficiation must be considered.


----------



## DowJones (6 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Not good for phosphate prices ATM! The PINK commodities price data report had phosphate rock price down 17.5% last month.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0709.pdf

I sold most of my MAK around 70c and kept 500 shares in anticipation of the SPP. I was uncertain about the dilution of the stock and it turned out to be a good decision thus far.

There is alot of shares that can potentially be issued:

* SPP (conditional vote for extra issues)
* SPP bonus options (conditional vote for extra issues)
* Extra 10% to Boneparte Diamonds shareholders if they can get 90% of the company
* Unlisted options

I estimate the dilutions to be 50% or more when the dust settles.

I have the right to pick up ~15K worth of shares but I am unsure. The Phosphate price last month has rocked my confidence.

Who will be particpating in the SPP?


----------



## shag (13 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



DowJones said:


> Not good for phosphate prices ATM! The PINK commodities price data report had phosphate rock price down 17.5% last month.
> 
> http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0709.pdf
> 
> ...




i will, but thats me.
i like the options. in nz one company, widespread? is trying to bring in a deposit, underwater i believe, way over in the chatham islands.
the point, its underwater, and its way, way out in a nasty ocean, but they are throwing money at it. it was drilled back decades ago by a large company, fletchers, and not developed so they must be assuming the phosphate price is going north, or just bored with too much money.

you made a smart move selling at 70, i was itching to do the same but too stupid.
comming from a farm i understand why phosphate prices are down, while it is slower acting and leaches less, you still have to put it on eventually or accept reduced productivity.

plus he's right about the large expensive stockpiles that needed to be used first before the cheaper stocks flow thru to the end user.


----------



## Sean K (21 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The long awaited potential DSO areas are still awaited.

From the Qtly released today:




> 2. DSO Drilling and Resources
> 
> The potential Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) sub-zone of the Arruwurra Deposit has been drilled out at a 125m x 125m grid and all assays should be in hand during July and the DSO resource should be estimated in August.
> 
> ...





Must remember that the Opex for the initial DSO operation was about $150/tn. Current RP prices?

And:



> CORPORATE MATTERS
> 
> 1. MINE FINANCING
> 
> ...




Looks like they're strugling unless RP bounces.


----------



## shag (27 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

gone into a trading halt this morning, during the end of the spp.
hope it doesnt last long. isn't this a bit odd?


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> gone into a trading halt this morning, during the end of the spp.
> hope it doesnt last long. isn't this a bit odd?



I thought they stated that it was due to something in Namibia.

Not giving any clue to it is a bit weird.

They could have said resources, or JV partner, or something, but nada.


----------



## prawn_86 (27 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I thought they stated that it was due to something in Namibia.
> 
> Not giving any clue to it is a bit weird.
> 
> They could have said resources, or JV partner, or something, but nada.




STB also halted at the same time "in respect to granting of new exploration ground".

Looks like STB will be getting some of MAKs tenements in Namibia. Not sure if i like these companies being intertwined and just passing things back and forth between each other and not actually doing anything...


----------



## berbouy (27 July 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

hi prawn -kennas- shag-i saw something on the asx website that made mention of an updated resource estimate, and something to do with bon? new to this so may be worth having a look at the announcement on asx-namibia was mentioned- cheers


----------



## enigmatic (5 August 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK do seem to be quiet keen on this marine phosphate evaluation and development in offshore Namibia which Bonaparte had a 42.5% Share in.

They have recently been buying up UNION RESOURCES LTD which also hold a 42.5% share in the marine Namibia deposit.

MAK now have a 14.9% Ownership of UNION interesting bit of consolidation in the Phosphate Juniors..


----------



## shag (5 August 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

note that there will most likely be a sulphuric acid plant there too, for the u extraction
thus cheaper/more usable superphosphate.


----------



## wtang89 (24 August 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hey, since noone has posted on this stock for a while i guess i will.
MAk has been on the decline recently despite growth in commodity prices and the general market. There has been no negative announcements yet the SP of MAk has been steadily declining as well as low volumes? anyone have any ideas as to why?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



wtang89 said:


> Hey, since noone has posted on this stock for a while i guess i will.
> MAk has been on the decline recently despite growth in commodity prices and the general market. There has been no negative announcements yet the SP of MAk has been steadily declining as well as low volumes? anyone have any ideas as to why?



I am a long time MAK watcher and investor (first bought in Feb 07), but have been completely out for about a year. I posted a chart similar to this some time ago which shows a clear trading range, which can be traded, but for longer term buy and hope investing is not worth being involved in, imo, until that 75 ish line is broken. 

Fundamentally, if RP prices go above $200 ish, then this might mine. If RP stays around $150, then it will not. RP price setting is so opaque and controlled by Morocco that no one can say what price this **** will be at in the next year, or 10. RP is an abundant substance, like uranium, it's just a matter of law, supply and demand. I read an article that said Morocco had enough RP for 50 years (or something) world supply a while ago, but they wouldn't up production to control prices. 

Please do your own search on RP supply/demend as you can not believe anyone's opinions on it, especially MAK's nor mine.


----------



## shag (24 August 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



wtang89 said:


> Hey, since noone has posted on this stock for a while i guess i will.
> MAk has been on the decline recently despite growth in commodity prices and the general market. There has been no negative announcements yet the SP of MAk has been steadily declining as well as low volumes? anyone have any ideas as to why?




people/punters offloading the rediculously structured spp
like i got 30k's worth, plus oppies
i have hope for phospate prices
ring ravensdown in nz for sense of future prices
others still developing worse p deposits.


----------



## Sean K (9 September 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

An update out on Wonarah.

Doesn't read very pretty to me compared to their other rampish remarks.

This last one is confusing to me:

*RAILWAY STUDY*

Australian Transport and Energy Corridor (“ATEC”) advised of its first-pass estimates of capital and operating costs for a rail link from mine site to Tennant Creek. The estimates are on a commercial-in-confidence basis. As the ability to raise the necessary construction capital will be contingent upon firm, large and long-term off-take agreements with customers, further work on the railway study will be deferred until the world fertilizer feedstock markets improve.


Why can't they provide the numbers?

Because it makes it look unfeasable?

They've been quite happy to put up rough numbers to this point. 



Stock sitting down in the bottom part of the sideways zone established over the past year. Not too much different to the last chart I put up.


----------



## Trader Paul (27 September 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Hi folks,

MAK ..... hopefully this sleeping beauty will get the kiss of life, later this week, 
as 2 positive time cycles slot into place, around 02102009 ..... 

have a great week

   paul



=====


----------



## exgeo (26 October 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

From Today's Australian:



> Reap a harvest from patience PURE SPECULATION:
> Robin Bromby | October 26, 2009
> 
> FIRST, some words that normally send shivers down the spine of your average resources share buyer: think long term. Apologies if, by uttering that ugly concept, we've given anyone a nasty turn over their morning soy or skinny lattes.
> ...




More: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,26257904-5005200,00.html


----------



## Sean K (2 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I do wonder whether fertiliser prices recover back to a point that will make Wonarah economical. I don't think they have changed their $150 Opex guestimate for trucking the stuff to TC, and what if RP stays low or even back to the old $50 mark? Morocco has about 20000 years worth of the stuff just sitting there waiting to be dug up. Doesn't matter what demand is, they have the supply. The rise to $450 was bubble and trouble in retrospect. I think MAK is in deep do-do, and could end up in moth balls.


----------



## Ken (2 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

kennas,

One thing to remember is that morocco might be selling phosphate at 100 bux a tonne, but shipping contracts will be higher than MAK's will be youd think.

Phosphate not traded daily on spot market.. The way i am reading the industry is that it is all contract based. So if MAK can find a buyer, than can sell their phosphate for whatever price they can.

market cap still double cash reserves... so maybe investors still hold some form of hope..

but i agree blue sky is not there to get excited about! looks to be heading below 36 cents... and further south this week...


----------



## THE BUZZ (18 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Based on 2days rise , think your on the money there Ken, looks like yesterdays announcements and positive media re ipl may have filtered down ??


----------



## exgeo (18 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Might also just be following the majors in the Potash world. Potash of Sasaktchewan (POT.TO) have recently started turning up. The charts of MAK and POT overlay reasonably well, with the exception so far of the recent turnup in POT.


----------



## skyQuake (18 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



exgeo said:


> Might also just be following the majors in the Potash world. Potash of Sasaktchewan (POT.TO) have recently started turning up. The charts of MAK and POT overlay reasonably well, with the exception so far of the recent turnup in POT.




SEC filings show Soros topped up hit POT holdings. Buying would probably be instos chasing that (then selling to retail )


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

On the 17th last week an announcement updating MAK progress was issued and following are some of the highlights. Interesting to note a director sold a small parcel on the same day. They come up on a scan initially and as per a majority of higher volume days has come off a bit since as per charts. (up to last friday)


> A major milestone will be attained on Monday, 23 November, when the Wonarah Environmental Impact Statement goes on public exhibition and is lodged with the Northern Territory Government for its consideration.





> MARKETING
> 
> India is the largest importer of rock phosphate and positive meetings were held with major fertiliser manufacturers there earlier this month. High level follow-up meetings are scheduled for early December. Overall markets and prices remain weak but the industry expects them to rebound. Difficult harvesting conditions in North America, and poor weather in India and Pakistan are causing current concern about crop yields and grain prices have risen strongly recently. The world has been under-fertilising since the bubble in prices last year and will have to increase application rates so as to maintain optimum nutrient levels and maximise yields. Wonarah is on track to be in production in mid 2011 to sell into this anticipated demand
> increase cycle.




I think the August volume spike is a logarithmic scale thingy and the reason why it looks higher on the wide angle shot.


----------



## Adam A (23 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Just for your own records that last qote about being on track to production mid 2011 was a typo. MAK issued a statement correcting it to mid 2010


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Just for your own records that last qote about being on track to production mid 2011 was a typo. MAK issued a statement correcting it to mid 2010



How can they be on track for production when RP is going cheaper than the feasability study Opex?  

They are taking a bet that the fertiliser cycle will rebound about next year so they can actually turn a profit. Remember, their Opex is well above historical prices and they've assumed the mid bubble price will return. This is like a uranium company going into production assuming that U is going to recover back to bubble prices. 

Can they be so certain?


----------



## jonojpsg (24 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> How can they be on track for production when RP is going cheaper than the feasability study Opex?
> 
> They are taking a bet that the fertiliser cycle will rebound about next year so they can actually turn a profit. Remember, their Opex is well above historical prices and they've assumed the mid bubble price will return. This is like a uranium company going into production assuming that U is going to recover back to bubble prices.
> 
> Can they be so certain?




Not much is certain in this life kennas   Death, taxes (well for most ), but also rising population and hence rising demand for food.  Given that this tends to go hand in hand with increasing pressure on agricultural land and decreasing amounts of it as more is taken up housing the masses, one would imagine that there is a reasonable case for RP prices to head up in the longer term.

Whether that is next year though???


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 November 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Just for your own records that last qote about being on track to production mid 2011 was a typo. MAK issued a statement correcting it to mid 2010



Yes I see that now. I should know not to mention stocks in a downtrend too. It was probably the mountain in the distance that got me unnecessarily excited.


----------



## justiceotp (22 December 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Its so quiet here and even after yesterdays announcement 

and a 19.5% gain today in MAK's price

and International DAP prices have risen 15% so far this month.


----------



## Adam A (22 December 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Dont want to jinx it

Plenty of volume today and yesterdays ann re first RP mined is great news

Im happy that MAK management have achieved this goal roughly within their stated time frame.

Would like to see this consolidate at this price, seen it drop back before 

Great to see the price rise and good luck to all holders


----------



## jonojpsg (22 December 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Mmm, I saw the jump today and the announcement, both of which were welcome!  I would say that things are definitely looking more promising now than a couple of months ago, and if RP prices continue to rise then we should see some readjustment of the SP ( here's hoping)


----------



## Sean K (23 December 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Did they state anywhere long term contract prices they have locked in, an the updated Opex numbers?



Or, is this just testing for potential offtake partners?

As far as I can recall, Opex, back in 07, was about $150 tn, for the trucking option.

How's RP looking?


----------



## michael_selway (25 December 2009)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jonojpsg said:


> Mmm, I saw the jump today and the announcement, both of which were welcome!  I would say that things are definitely looking more promising now than a couple of months ago, and if RP prices continue to rise then we should see some readjustment of the SP ( here's hoping)




MAK has bad management i think, thus always depressed shareprice

*PER SHARE STATISTICS   
6/06  6/07  6/08  6/09  
Sales($) --  --  --  --  
Cash Flow(cents) --  -3.6 -8.0 -11.4 
Earnings(cents) --  -4.4 -4.8 -15. *


----------



## jancha (6 January 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jonojpsg said:


> Mmm, I saw the jump today and the announcement, both of which were welcome!  I would say that things are definitely looking more promising now than a couple of months ago, and if RP prices continue to rise then we should see some readjustment of the SP ( here's hoping)




I've been watching Mak the last month or so with interest. ( Increasing volume with some large buys lately with a sp of 50c )
Phosphate imo is going to keep rising as more & more demand for it returns.
Farmers in the past haven't been using phosphate ect because of lack of funds with the GFC and in order for a successful crop they need to replace the nutrients they've been taking out of the ground. True?

It would be nice if it returned anywhere near it's high of $2.80 two years ago.


----------



## jancha (8 January 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jancha said:


> I've been watching Mak the last month or so with interest. ( Increasing volume with some large buys lately with a sp of 50c )
> Phosphate imo is going to keep rising as more & more demand for it returns.
> Farmers in the past haven't been using phosphate ect because of lack of funds with the GFC and in order for a successful crop they need to replace the nutrients they've been taking out of the ground. True?
> 
> It would be nice if it returned anywhere near it's high of $2.80 two years ago.




Am i the only one on ASF holding MAK?
Noone else wanting to capitalize on this company?
Is this classed as ramping?


----------



## justiceotp (8 January 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Nope your not a lone I have a considerable holding of Minemakers just waiting for their time to come


----------



## Adam A (8 January 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK having a nice run this morning

Up 7.5% with good volume (4.7mill) Has been strong the past few mornings,then tends to drop of towards close,hopefully this run will continue

Ive got a few oppies for a punt as well as my long term shares 

Good luck


----------



## jancha (4 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> MAK having a nice run this morning
> 
> Up 7.5% with good volume (4.7mill) Has been strong the past few mornings,then tends to drop of towards close,hopefully this run will continue
> 
> ...




Quite the opposite.
I also was hoping for the run to continue but sadly was mistaken. 
Otherwise i would have sold and bought back in. 
Where did i put that cyrstal ball?
Nevermind only a matter of time for it to head back to whence it came.
First sample shipment off to India today. 
That might start to swing it back into positive territory.


----------



## ctp6360 (8 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Trading Halt today. They didn't give any details as to why...

Does anyone have any insight on this?


----------



## Sean K (8 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ctp6360 said:


> Trading Halt today. They didn't give any details as to why...
> 
> Does anyone have any insight on this?



Yeah no details is bizaar and unlike MAK. They usually throw in a one liner to at least give a hint. I don't think it's company related, just to Wonarah, so wouldn't be capital raisings or takeovers etc. From the last quarterly they said a resource upgrade was due for Feb and DSO FS in first quarter....


----------



## Sean K (12 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Well, they're calling it a resource update not upgrade. Whatever.



> ASX RELEASE
> *RESOURCE UPDATE WONARAH ROCK PHOSPHATE PROJECT*
> 10 February 2010
> 
> ...




This bit seems to be very good news to me. DSO was always the key to getting this operation up and running at an economical (profitable) rate and beneficiation was not the first step. 

Now, what depth is this DSO, and what will it really cost to get to it and start trucking to TC? They said $150 a ton Opex yonks ago. And how's RP prices looking?

However, they have had to downgrade the low grade material, which look untidy:



> *ERRONEOUS PREVIOUS RESOURCE ESTIMATE*
> 
> In the Main Zone at 0% P2O5 cut-off, the consultants had previously advised a resource estimate of 969Mt @ 19% P2O5 in the Indicated and Inferred categories. The resource estimate consultants have now advised that this estimate is erroneous and the new estimate, incorporating all drilling to date, is 1117Mt @ 11% P2O5. An explanation by the consultants accompanies this release as Attachment I.
> 
> Whilst it is regrettable that there has been reduction in grade associated with the Main Zone global resource estimate at a 0% P2O5 cut-off, its potential impact upon Minemakers’ proposed DSO mining operations and long term development is considered to be negligible.



11%  Almost half the grade!! eeeeek. That looks pretty damn ordinary to me. Ooops.

Still trading sideways, sideways, sideways.

Will they mine????


----------



## derty (12 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Now, what depth is this DSO, and what will it really cost to get to it and start trucking to TC? They said $150 a ton Opex yonks ago. And how's RP prices looking?



The last figure I saw for RP was US$97.5/tonne for January, up from US$90 in December. It bottomed at US$90 for 6 months with this move the first sign of price improvement.
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EX...165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html




kennas said:


> 11%  Almost half the grade!! eeeeek. That looks pretty damn ordinary to me. Ooops.



That figure is of 1117Mt @ 11% P2O5 is based on a 0% P2O5 cutoff, so essentially is includes every skerrick of P2O5. It's called a global or total resource and simply gives a total inventory of contained P2O5. The global resource is not optimised for mining and is meaningless as far as being able to predict what will be produced, though it is a number that companies and punters love to wave about.

Much more relevant are the resources generated with cut-offs. The estimation at a cut-off of 10% P2O5 contains 485Mt @ 18% P2O5 which is much more meaningful. The 485Mt volume contains the higher grade DSO calculated tonnage. Though once the DSO tonnage is removed in excess of 400Mt (subject to modelling of reserves) of ore that can be benificiated remains. So if prices improve to where beneficiation is viable they will have a lot of ore to play with.

The more DSO they can identify the better and the DSO will be crucial to get MAK off the ground as a producer. While they have announced a good tonnage of DSO some of the intersections are thin (1-2m) and deep (~40m) and these will not likely be economic by themselves. MAK needs most of the DSO ore to be hosted in the 5-10m intersections at the current depths of 30-40m for mining to be most viable. 

(Note: resource figures are based solely on geological continuity and do not consider any mining costs. The calculation of reserves is required to determine what is economic to mine and these figures will vary based on RP price)


----------



## Sean K (13 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



derty said:


> The more DSO they can identify the better and the DSO will be crucial to get MAK off the ground as a producer. While they have announced a good tonnage of DSO some of the intersections are thin (1-2m) and deep (~40m) and these will not likely be economic by themselves. MAK needs most of the DSO ore to be hosted in the 5-10m intersections at the current depths of 30-40m for mining to be most viable.



Absolutely, but RP needs to be somewhat above Opex for them to get anywhere near mining. You can't start an operation when your product is worth half your Opex, and MAK (and many other RP hopefulls) are taking a bet that fertaliser prices are going to continue back up well above historical trends. The risk is that RP is in abundance in several places and current producers may be able to turn the tap on as required and keep the price at a level to keep new producers out of the game. Is this likely? Or, is MAK a certainty to mine? I've been on the fence on this for some time.


----------



## jonojpsg (13 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Without being bothered to track back through the FS data and this thread, is the $150/tonne opex you quote kennas the overall opex for all grades?  I was just thinking it must be cheaper for the high grade DSO near surface stuff musn't it?  And that's the stuff that, as has been mentioned, will get MAK off the ground as a producer while, hopefully, the RP price moves up.

Just thinking

Gotta be somewhat similar to IO producers doesn't it - need good grade DSO to startup and get cash to then get lower grade up to scratch?


----------



## Sean K (13 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jonojpsg said:


> Without being bothered to track back through the FS data and this thread, is the $150/tonne opex you quote kennas the overall opex for all grades?



Without myself going back to the initial FS in regard to the trucking solution for DSO to TC and rail to Darwin, and onto the wharf (yet to be built) and a ship to .... wherever, it was $150 a ton. That was the initial DSO operation and the profit was going to be used to slap together a beneficiation plant and rail line for the 'long term' operation, for the lower grade stuff. 

All hinges on what price they can get for RP contracts. 

And, what the final Opex for the cheap trucking option is.

As a related muse, I do remember AD saying some time ago that he was not seeking a lock in of forward sales of RP or off-take agreements (unlike Legend) as he was confident RP would remain high. 

And, I also guess that the $150 Opex for the cheap trucking option will blow out, as all initial forecasts do.

Now, having said that, if people like Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are right, agri commods are going to go through the roof in the next several years, so this phase of the cycle may be the perfect buying opportunity. If they are right... I have no idea.


----------



## ricee007 (14 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hmmm, nearly everyone I've talked to thinks it will be much under $150.... More in the range of $100.... I tend to agree with them...


----------



## jancha (15 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ricee007 said:


> Hmmm, nearly everyone I've talked to thinks it will be much under $150.... More in the range of $100.... I tend to agree with them...




So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.


----------



## Sean K (15 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jancha said:


> So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
> I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.



jancha, what's your analysis tell you of long term RP prices? What price 2011 and beyond?

It's a pretty murky area imo, but anyone can take a stab at long term prices with a little guestimatation/plucking I suppose. One of the real long term agri bulls is Jim Rogers and he can't put a figure on what price any commodity will be in the future, he says there's too many unknown unknowns. He does always say 'much higher' though. I'm not sure if he states that specifically for RP though. The Morocco FOB price setting is so opaque who knows what it'll be next week let alone next year.


----------



## ricee007 (15 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jancha said:


> So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
> I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.



When RP was $90ish according to the World Bank, I believe MAK said their OPEX would be less than the current RP price...

If you assume the pink data sheet is, say, 10% underpriced (so, really, $99).... that would give Opex of circa $100...

Also, "I also guess that the $150 Opex for the cheap trucking option".
It is my belief that it was for the 'more expensive' trucking option... and, if a railway is built (which it may/may not be), then that Opex will be SIGNIFICANTLY reduced.

As to 'everyone' and 'their qualifactions'
my 'mate' (no qualifications)
and
http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1100083&msgno=5023231#5023231 (is one bad example from HC; there are certainly more if you search), and many other posters on HC...

On the contrary, you are the first person who believes the $150 figure...that I have heard.

Is it therefore set in stone that OpEx will be <$125? Certainly not! I just expect an OpEx of <$125 for the DSO... whilst noting that I may very well be wrong.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (15 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The MAK chart seems to be gathering some Momentum ATM
Hopefully the Resistance at 0.46 will be taken out soon?


----------



## Sean K (15 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I've had a look back through statements by MAK in regard to Opex, and have these:

April 08 Presentation - Opex $100 tn
Nov 08 Presentation - 'Capex and Opex to be released Mid Dec'
Feb 09 Presentation - 

Operating Costs
• AU$150/t delivered to ship’s hold in Darwin (FOB)
• Say,  ± US$100/t FOB
− Split Mining $28/t
Processing $16/t
Freight $98/t
Site Administration $8/t
TOTAL $150/t

November 09 Presentation - 

Operating Cost
"Commercially confidential, but competitive"

So, who knows then.


----------



## exgeo (15 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Have read over the last month or so of two large mining co's pushing the button on new Phosphate developments. One was BHP, the other was Anglo or Vale I think. You could take this one of two ways; the major's analysis leads them to think there will be a shortfall in supply; the second is that there will be more new supply to compete with MAK. I hold (I'm a straw-hats-in-winter kind of investor).


----------



## justiceotp (16 February 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

It looks as if someone is thinking along the lines of a pick up in the fertilizer market.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/ma...pdate--yara-buy-terra--bln-expand-1232184154/


----------



## tfrjr (5 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I am trying to decide which is a better investment: LDGI (Legend) or MAK. Can anyone offer any suggestions/opinions. Thanks.


----------



## Adam A (5 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK has very important news due in the next few weeks/months,so imho their will be quite substantial  movement one way or another!

Im a fan of mak long term,their website has plenty of info.


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

We recently discussed the Opex numbers MAK have produced over the past couple of years and I have to say that it's very disappointing that they have managed to start avoiding some actual numbers. What the heck does "Commercially confidential, but competitive" mean anyway. Surely this is price sensative information that the market should be privy too. How can a Capex estimate as part of a Scoping Study not be released? I'm at a loss in this regard. We can only assume that the figure is far above the previous plucks at around $150 tn. 

Any other thoughts on this?


----------



## ricee007 (6 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> We recently discussed the Opex numbers MAK have produced over the past couple of years and I have to say that it's very disappointing that they have managed to start avoiding some actual numbers. What the heck does "Commercially confidential, but competitive" mean anyway. Surely this is price sensative information that the market should be privy too. How can a Capex estimate as part of a Scoping Study not be released? I'm at a loss in this regard. We can only assume that the figure is far above the previous plucks at around $150 tn.
> 
> Any other thoughts on this?



First and foremost, I am at a lost as to explain how your explanation is the only thing that we can "assume"!!!

Secondly, understand that RP market is not transparent.

If MAK comes out and says it'll cost us $129.03 to put it on a boat at Darwin..... a buyer maybe more likely to offer, say, $134.03....

If the buyer doesn't know the opex (or, guesses, say, $150)... they may offer, say, $155.

$20/tonne * lots of tonnes = big difference to MAK.

Hell, even if the $ difference is only $1/tonne, that'll definitely add up over the life of the mine!


----------



## Sean K (9 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ricee007 said:


> First and foremost, I am at a lost as to explain how your explanation is the only thing that we can "assume"!!!
> 
> Secondly, understand that RP market is not transparent.
> 
> ...



Your explanation is that if they tell everyone the Opex then buyers will adjust their contract prices? OK. lol


----------



## YELNATS (9 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Your explanation is that if they tell everyone the Opex then buyers will adjust their contract prices? OK. lol




Maybe not, but I would think it usually not advisable to release costing information into the public domain, where it can be accessed by customers and competitors to the detriment of the business.


----------



## Sean K (9 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



YELNATS said:


> Maybe not, but I would think it usually not advisable to release costing information into the public domain, where it can be accessed by customers and competitors to the detriment of the business.



Perhaps I'm off track with what these figures were for. I thought MAK had comissioned some organisation to to conduct a study of a truck and rail option and they were producing a scoping study for them. 

Looking back through the anns, I can only find the commissioning of ATEC to complete a rail feasability study:

9 Jan 08:



> HIGHLIGHTS
> 
> Minemakers and Australian Transport and Energy Corridor Ltd (“ATEC”) have signed an MOU covering a financial study of the economics of a 250km open access standard gauge rail link from the Wonarah Phosphate Project to near Tennant Creek.
> 
> ...




But, after this, there seems to be no outcome of this particular feasability study, especially in regard to the financial modelling due 31 May except:

11 June 09 update:



> Work on the ATEC JV railway feasibility study continues. Preferred route alternatives have been identified and the first stage of the study should be completed shortly.




But after this, I can't find anything... Can anyone else? 

But, back to their operating costs.

From Investor Pres 14 May 09:



> Operating Costs
> 
> Conservative early estimate of A$150/t with considerable room for reduction
> To be optimised in the Feasibility Study – due to be completed September 2009




So, what are they?


----------



## Sean K (10 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK removed from the ASX 300 and XAO today. Bit of a slap in the face. The star has definately fallen slightly off the Emerging Company of the Year, or whatever it was.

Could become totally hamstrung by RP prices never rising back to economic levels for them. 

Or, it's just a matter of time before it all goes bubblish again after farmers realise that their crops are going cactus. As long as they can get the money to buy the crap.


----------



## earthgas (12 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Can't figure out why this stock is so lightly traded. With the recovery of economy, farmers need to stock the phosphate rocks, don't they?

The dream for the SP back at $2 plus is dimishing according to last few months performance.


----------



## Sean K (20 March 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

*Resource Generation, Minemakers eye African listings *

Michael Bennet From: The Australian March 18, 2010 2:25PM 

AFRICAN investors are being targeted by juniors Resource Generation and Minemakers, with both planning secondary listings in the region. 

AFRICAN investors appear to be on the mind of the junior miners, with Resource Generation and Minemakers laying out plans for secondary listings in South Africa and Namibia respectively, sending their stock prices higher. 

Sydney-based Resource Generation said it would apply for a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange to encourage South African investors to invest in the company. 

Resource hopes the dual listing provides “greater flexibility” to raise finance to develop its Boikarabelo coal mine in the Waterberg region of South Africa it is drilling and claims to hold a saleable reserve of 603 million tonnes of coal.

The listing is expected in the middle of the year, subject to approvals, way ahead of production, which is not expected until at least January 2013.

Nevertheless, local investors liked the play, with Resource’s stock up 7.37 per cent to 51 cents in intraday trade. 

Across the Nullarbor, Perth-based phosphate miner Minemakers said it plans to list on the stock exchange of Namibia - where it has marine phosphate projects - in May. 

Minemakers played a similar card, saying the listing would more readily enable investors in Namibia and South Africa to take a “significant shareholding” in the company.

Unfortunately local investors were less impressed than with Resource’s move, with its shares up just half a cent to 42c. 

Neither miner enlisted the services of advisers, although Resource did enlist the help of South African law firm Bowman Gilfillan.


----------



## Sean K (22 April 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I think that MAKs plans to produce Phosphate are now virtually dead.

Just had a quick scan through their quarterly out yesterday and read excuse after excuse before getting to this gem..



> Industry analysts are predicting that benchmark Moroccan rock will sell for US$150/t FOB later this year and this is being used as the basis for the financial modelling in the Feasibility Study.




As we all know, the previous feasability studies on the DSO operation to truck the ore to TC and rail to Darwin had an opex of about $150/t. 

It's unfeasable on a US$150/t FOB even if the AUD tanked back to 70c which is highly unlikely. In fact AUD is more likely going to parity, or even as high as $1.20.



> *Feasibility Study*
> 
> The Feasibility Study is now scheduled for delivery to Minemakers by the independent
> consultancy, AMC Limited, in early May.
> ...



$30m for a feasability study?

HUH?


----------



## shag (23 April 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I think that MAKs plans to produce Phosphate are now virtually dead.
> 
> Just had a quick scan through their quarterly out yesterday and read excuse after excuse before getting to this gem..
> 
> ...




yes drummund was sunk when he slipped some truth in one announcement in relation to the phosphate prices many months back. he alluded to it all being dependant to on a recovery of phospate prices or such.
it was a definite change of tune anyway.
his phosphate empire looks destined to b undertaken by others, at a later date unless some large co-op like fonterra, ravensdown or such comes to his rescue.
who would keep drummond on tho.


----------



## Sean K (2 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



shag said:


> yes drummund was sunk when he slipped some truth in one announcement in relation to the phosphate prices many months back. he alluded to it all being dependant to on a recovery of phospate prices or such.
> it was a definite change of tune anyway.
> his phosphate empire looks destined to b undertaken by others, at a later date unless some large co-op like fonterra, ravensdown or such comes to his rescue.
> who would keep drummond on tho.



I think the only two ways this will get to production now are if RP takes off again and establishes a base over $200 tn, or if a major with deep pockets and economy of scale takes them over with a long term vision. In the mean time they are just going to churn through cash doing feasability and feasability study.


----------



## Adam A (4 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bad day today for MAK shares and holders
Down to a two year low today, at one stage hit 0.20c

Delay on the DSO feasability study looks to be on the cards (imho)

The last quarterly used the excuse of the carbon tax as one of the reasons for the delay,the super tax will be used this time (imho)

Andrew Drummond has stated in the past that mak was a goer at lower RP prices,its obvious that the market thinks this is not the case

What happens next?


----------



## Sean K (4 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Bad day today for MAK shares and holders
> Down to a two year low today, at one stage hit 0.20c
> 
> Delay on the DSO feasability study looks to be on the cards (imho)
> ...



What a disaster intra day. Panic has certainly set in.

As I've been saying for some time, they needed RP to be well above $150 tn long term, which was THE risk. 

While the world will need to eat in the future and farmers apparantly have underspent on crops the past 2 years, RP is so abundant, that demend will be met. The bubble, looks to have been a bubble, and I can't see how it will recover any time soon to levels that taking this into DFS is a waste of time. 

I think Wonarah will be mothballed.


----------



## Adam A (4 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

So on to the Namibia project lol
and if that doesnt work out, on to the Pacifico Peru project 

Then off to Monia in tassy and then back up to the NT for port keats salt project (weather permitting of cause)

Scatterd with a few OS trips should  be  enough to keep management and the directors employed

You live and you learn lol


----------



## shag (5 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> What a disaster intra day. Panic has certainly set in.
> 
> As I've been saying for some time, they needed RP to be well above $150 tn long term, which was THE risk.
> 
> ...




yes, i think if i was the king of morocco i'd keep prices low for a while to keep these fellas quiet n kill them off for a few years. nothing like a massive supply and credit crisis....
maybe ravensdown could pick up the detris once its all collapsed, as they are moving into the aussie supply market with no npk resources of their own.


----------



## Sean K (22 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK completely on the ropes. Looks like a duck. Dead.

I wonder how much the Superduper Profit Tax (SPT) has slugged it.

You know something's serious when it gets its own acronym.

Like the GFC. Or GEC.

What a disasterous chart. 



Still doubled your money if you bought in 07 I suppose.


----------



## THE BUZZ (22 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Going to be hard to recover to previous highs in the near future , low RokPhosphate prices, super taxes, bigger miners will feel the pinch, so how will MAK be viable??? still I hold allbeit a reduced number for now.,.


----------



## Sean K (31 May 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK need to halt any further feasibility work on Wonarah, sack all their management team in place sucking up massive salaries, and wait out the GFC, imo. They should just sit on their $30m or buy a gold mine with it. 

Just having a gander at their 27 April investor presentation and came across this gem on page 5:

"Feasibility cost estimate in next 2 - 3 weeks."

Well, where the hell is it? Has someone else seen it?

Why isn't it out? Where's the update on the delay? They are very quick to get out the good information, but when something is a miss, no one's home. 

I think this Opex study is going to turn their RP dreams into fertiliser.


----------



## Sean K (2 June 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Moment of truth for MAK today with the release of the FS that supposed to include costs. Was reported in the paper this am that it supposed to be positive. I just can't see how it could be with opex likely to be well above current RP prices. Or maybe they leave out the opex as being 'confidential' again.


----------



## exgeo (2 June 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Hoperating costs of A$122/t and Cap. costs of A$23/t for the direct shipping ore, 5 year mine life.

Drilling programme aims to prove up more resources to extend life to 10 years which gives better financial outcome of A$121/t and A$8/t (both FOB Darwin).


----------



## Sean K (2 June 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

I am very surprised that the Opex came in under $150 after their previous announcements. I was expecting well over $150 in fact. Wrong.

However, I can not understand how a FS can be done based on a price of the commodity above the current price and well above long term trend. They are making a massive assumption that long term demand will outstrip supply, driving prices higher, as there is crap loads of potential supply.

Isn't long term average about $40 a tn?



Also confused as to the base case plan. They intend to make about a $100m profit over x years, but the Capex is $220m or something. So, the Capex comes from where? Just a share issue, or debt? If it's a share issue, incredible dilution. If it's debt, interest. It doesn't seem to have been covered. Or was it?


----------



## ricee007 (2 June 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> I am very surprised that the Opex came in under $150 after their previous announcements. I was expecting well over $150 in fact. Wrong.



Bit more than my estimate...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=532909



> However, I can not understand how a FS can be done based on a price of the commodity above the current price and well above long term trend. They are making a massive assumption that long term demand will outstrip supply, driving prices higher, as there is crap loads of potential supply.



Er? You don't see that costs < revenue? Ergo, price > cost?



> Isn't long term average about $40 a tn?



Possibly. I wonder what long-term gold prices are...



> Also confused as to the base case plan. They intend to make about a $100m profit over x years, but the Capex is $220m or something. So, the Capex comes from where? Just a share issue, or debt? If it's a share issue, incredible dilution. If it's debt, interest. It doesn't seem to have been covered. Or was it?



You are correct.

A JV partner, and a capital raising, would be my guess.


----------



## Sean K (23 July 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Trading Halt pending ann regarding development of Wonarah.

Mothballs?

Hope I'm surprised and it's a goer.


----------



## jonojpsg (23 July 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> Trading Halt pending ann regarding development of Wonarah.
> 
> Mothballs?
> 
> Hope I'm surprised and it's a goer.




Yeah, wondered what you'd have to say about this one kennas

Seems unlikely that it could be a goer, although maybe if they just go for the high grade stuff they could generate some cashflow, ala high grade gold/IO??

Given that all they do is dig it up and ship it out?


----------



## Sean K (26 July 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

No mothballs just yet, just selling up to half the company by the look.

Up to 50% shares on issue to Verte.

HUH? 



> The Strategic Investors to provide equity funding (“Equity Funding”) to Minemakers by the subscription for new shares in Minemakers at a substantial premium to the current share price and representing, on completion, up to 50% of all issued shares at a time when arrangements for the EPC Funding are finalised.




They fail to give a price that they're selling the shares for which is curious. Just that its at a 'substantial premium'. Maybe it is. 

I suppose it's one way to get funding.

But they are going to use 75% of profit to repay the loan. 

Funding not to be finalised until 2Q 2011. I've got no idea, but they were planning on mining in Q4 2011 I thought.


----------



## jancha (6 August 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



jonojpsg said:


> Yeah, wondered what you'd have to say about this one kennas
> 
> Seems unlikely that it could be a goer, although maybe if they just go for the high grade stuff they could generate some cashflow, ala high grade gold/IO??
> 
> Given that all they do is dig it up and ship it out?




Some big buyers out there today. 
One in particular for over a mil.
Any ideas as to why the sudden urge of interest?


----------



## justiceotp (6 August 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Not sure if this is why the buying has been good today but I had noticed that the corn futures had been going up and corn is one of the biggest users of Phosphate.


----------



## YELNATS (6 August 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> Not sure if this is why the buying has been good today but I had noticed that the corn futures had been going up and corn is one of the biggest users of Phosphate.




Looks like world prices for all grains is on the rise, not only corn. Maybe this has something to do with the recent interest in MAK.

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7940998


----------



## Adam A (9 August 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Strong day for MAK today 
Looking forward to the next RP price update 

2.8million shares changing hands and a 4% increase

One to watch imho if further bad news his the market re grain supplies


----------



## dandyjac (18 August 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

MAK having a good day out today on the back of BHP offer for potash, good to see a nice little rise


----------



## Sean K (18 August 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



dandyjac said:


> MAK having a good day out today on the back of BHP offer for potash, good to see a nice little rise



Yep, some good sentiment for them. But RP isn't Potash, and Wonarah is barely feasable at current prices, which are on the dark side of opaque at best. Would really like to see some clarity in the market and  RP prices and a gradual uptrend to over $160 ish and a steady state before even thinking that they can go to mining with any confidence. The world does need to eat and farmers have undersh!t their crops by the sounds so it will catch up one day. Maybe.

=DJ UPDATE: BHP's Bid For Potash Corp Pulls Focus To Fertilizer, Food, Farms
18/08/2010 05:14PM AEST  

By Ray Brindal 

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 

CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (BHP) US$38.6 billion bid for Canada's Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) underscores increasing corporate interest in farming, food and fertilizer, the executive manager of the Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia, Nick Drew, said Wednesday. 

There is a global trend of increasing population and increasing wealth in heavily populated countries like India and China and that means demand for farm products is going to rise, at the same time as the availability of arable land is being squeezed from urbanization and environmental degradation, he said. 

"There's going to be quite a crunch coming and agriculture is probably going to become a much more interesting space in the next few years," Drew told Dow Jones Newswires. 

Meanwhile, Colonial First State is fielding more interest in agricultural and soft commodities investment driven initially by commodity price spikes, such as recent months for wheat, but also by recent corporate activity, said portfolio manager Skye Macpherson.


----------



## justiceotp (17 October 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

A bit of a story here in the Australian on Minemakers recent BCD deal

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...e-of-bcd-bcd-52c/story-e6frg9if-1225938898985


----------



## earthgas (29 December 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

This stock has been disappointing me for a while. Anyone has any in depth say about this stock? Cheers


----------



## Sean K (30 December 2010)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



earthgas said:


> This stock has been disappointing me for a while. Anyone has any in depth say about this stock? Cheers



I think it's all been said and nothing new really to add except the outlook for phosphate is a little better short term until the world really implodes.


----------



## Adam A (14 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Bit of movement on MAK yesterday,with the close and volume being the highest in a while 

One to watch, breakout possible?

All imho

Long term holder


----------



## dandyjac (14 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Adam A said:


> Bit of movement on MAK yesterday,with the close and volume being the highest in a while
> 
> One to watch, breakout possible?
> 
> ...




Good upside today now up 4.5 cents, MAK may get a speeding ticket


----------



## earthgas (15 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Feel like a major break out yesterday, can't wait for any postive ann coming soon


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



earthgas said:


> Feel like a major break out yesterday, can't wait for any postive ann coming soon



Yeah, could be. Unusual volume. Couldn't be on the back of the tin projects and IPO could it? 

Maybe on some of the recent food price shock running through the news wires....


----------



## joea (17 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



earthgas said:


> Feel like a major break out yesterday, can't wait for any postive ann coming soon




Intersuisse attributes the weaker performance to:
* A lack of understanding of phosphate as a commodity.
* A lack of newsfow  of progress.
* Confusion over MAK investment in BCD Resources.
Cheers


----------



## Adam A (17 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Some thing is up 
MAK today,  5 and 1/2 million shares traded for an 8% increase

Been holding on to these for a long time,nice to see some action


----------



## justiceotp (17 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Maybe this below

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...rals-agrees-buy-uk-potash-gbp-million-shares/

and the BHP attempt a few weeks ago is what has added more attention to MAK of late.


----------



## GumbyLearner (18 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



justiceotp said:


> Maybe this below
> 
> http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...rals-agrees-buy-uk-potash-gbp-million-shares/
> 
> and the BHP attempt a few weeks ago is what has added more attention to MAK of late.




I wonder how much more it will cost to ship that from the U.K. to the Asian market? Compared to an N.T. to Asia deal ? Or other producers voyages like Morocco to Asia?

Analogous to a Vale, South America I/O shipment compared to a Pilbara I/O to CHINA  deal?

I wonder what they are thinking in Regina? :aus::hide:

BHP tried.


----------



## joea (30 January 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Native Title agreement to be signed on 24 or 25 th February.
Investors are expected to visit Wonarah site in February.
The potential to produce phosphoric acid by dry kiln process by JDC Phosphate  is being tested.
Cheers


----------



## justiceotp (3 February 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

http://www.news.com.au/business/bre...phosphate-threat/story-e6frfkur-1225998738382

some interesting reading on phosphate


----------



## earthgas (3 February 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The treand looks excellent, however, with the level of the volume for the past 2 weeks, I expect to have higher rise.

Someone mentioned they are going to make an ann. by the end of this month, when do you get this info?

Good luck for all holders, patience is the key now


----------



## dandyjac (9 February 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

 Nice rise up in share price today, all mak share holders should be starting to feel happy with the way this stock is starting to perform


----------



## lioness (10 February 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Whats the target for this one?

Looks like it is heading much higher from here with the perfect storm brewing over food, fertilizer etc.

I would think mid 70's with ease. I got in at 40.


----------



## Korban (10 February 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



lioness said:


> Whats the target for this one?
> 
> Looks like it is heading much higher from here with the perfect storm brewing over food, fertilizer etc.
> 
> I would think mid 70's with ease. I got in at 40.




A recent Intersuisee report has MAK's NPV at $1.82 http://www.minemakers.com.au/downloads/110113Minemakers-Intersuisse.pdf . Ill go for that price. :sheep:


----------



## earthgas (20 March 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Nice reversal on Friday, I am comparing MAK and ELM, and try to implement a pair trading strategy these two. Obviously, ELM is more bullish for the last month or so. However, for the assets and deposits which MAK has, it is hard for me not too accumulate another few pieces. I was reading the article in SMH, it is inevitable China is going to import more grain from US to feed its 1 billion + population. The average food inflation for the last 12 months alone is about 15%. Therefore, in my view, Potash and Phosphate should be the place to be.


----------



## Sean K (20 March 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Korban said:


> A recent Intersuisee report has MAK's NPV at $1.82 http://www.minemakers.com.au/downloads/110113Minemakers-Intersuisse.pdf . Ill go for that price. :sheep:



Yep, good report.

But, it's bought.

And one person's opinion by the look. 
  	
As previously discussed, Woonarah is uneconomical.

Unless RP climbs back to $300+ and stays there long term which is impossible!


----------



## burglar (14 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



kennas said:


> ... As previously discussed, Wonarah is uneconomical.
> 
> Unless RP climbs back to $300+ and stays there long term which is impossible!




Big money is cornering food on the Futures Market.
Food prices are climbing steadily.


RP is climbing albeit slowly.
USD is climbing albeit slowly.
MAK SP is falling albeit slowly.

Maybe MAK's time is coming albeit slowly.


----------



## joea (18 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

Guys
MAK could be making a higher low.
It may come back and bounce off the 34wma.
I make that as a possible 1, back for 2 then 3 FOR THE RIDE UP.
That is two good spikes. 
If you were a fisherman, that's red emperor country.
Cheers


----------



## ricee007 (18 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



joea said:


> Guys
> MAK could be making a higher low.
> It may come back and bounce off the 34wma.
> I make that as a possible 1, back for 2 then 3 FOR THE RIDE UP.
> ...



 Well, sure... but.... realistically, I don't see how charting is relevant in an instance like this. It's gone up higher for a reason... a news report......


----------



## romeo (18 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

The widespread down bar on the 29th of May will continue to provide resistance in the near term IMO. I'd like to see the stock gap up above the high of that day at 42.5 cents. Followed by an inside down day on low volume to confirm no selling pressure.

If we see that phenomenon in the next couple of days I think this could be heading north. However there is still a lot of nearby resistance. The bar tomorrow will tell the picture.

The fact that the SP closed near the high is another sign of strength. (However the day before it closed on the low on high(ish) volume.)
certainly on the weekly chart it (looks like) its making a higher low. 

charts attached, very new to technical analysis. Any other views out there?


----------



## ricee007 (18 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



romeo said:


> charts attached, very new to technical analysis. Any other views out there?



That your charts won't be even slightly relevant if:
Wonorah is partly sold..... or the days continue to roll by without a deal, and the Verte MOU expires?

Wonorah is sold?

Or the economy collapses again?

Or discussions with the Indians fall through?


----------



## Miner (19 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

A famous newsletter's buy signal basically pushed the share price catalytically today.


----------



## mr. jeff (19 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



Miner said:


> A famous newsletter's buy signal basically pushed the share price catalytically today.




I see in the fin reiew that there is confirmed rumour of co-operation on the wonarah resource with some Indian investors...I don't follow the company so cannot comment, but Miner perhaps this recommendation and rumour/ news was a double whammy. 

I watch with interest how many shares are traded on the release of new recommendations from various newsletters and it can be surprising...I presume most institutionals keep an eye on these as well, particularly if you like the algorithm game, very interesting where D&D for example will release a "buy up to" limit, then mostly the stock is sold only at near or equal to that price immediately. Is this outbidding or a coralling of buyers by bigger players - where they buy ALL supply and then sell at or near the maximum limit. Would be a very profitable game. 

Sorry for the off topic bit.


----------



## joea (20 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*

There is a  (MOU) with NMDC Ltd. from India.
Cheers


----------



## ricee007 (20 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



joea said:


> There is a  (MOU) with NMDC Ltd. from India.
> Cheers



 Sigh, it is VERY annoying that people can know this BEFORE the ASX release. If you know it, it means that OTHERS know it... and if OTHERS know it, they had an advantage over others today.


----------



## joea (21 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ricee007 said:


> Sigh, it is VERY annoying that people can know this BEFORE the ASX release. If you know it, it means that OTHERS know it... and if OTHERS know it, they had an advantage over others today.




ricee007

I follow emerging stocks, and my software has Pre-computered scans.
1 is Volume - move up.
2 "  Volume - move down, so I was alerted on the 29/04/2011, by software.

On asking Intersuisse, they sent me a update on MAK on the 19th.
They say calculated NPV is $1.82, so I watch it like a hawk.

I have also been following the VSA posts, as I also believe that "price and volume"
analysis can give you an advantage.

Cheers


----------



## ricee007 (21 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



joea said:


> ricee007
> 
> Cheers



 Oh, so you *DON'T* *KNOW* a MOA has been signed?

The latest the ASX has been told, IIRC, is that discussions have commenced, but have not concluded in a MOA.

If you *KNOW* that a MOA has been signed ("There is a (MOU) with NMDC Ltd. from India.") then IMHO, you *KNOW* information that the market doesn't.

Thus, one of three things can be true:
1. You have inside knowledge that the MOU has been signed
2. I'm wrong, and MAK has told the ASX that a MOU has been signed
3. You are *GUESSING* a MOA has been signed, as the charts 'look good'.

1. See my original reply.
2. Feel free to ignore me, and accept my apologies... but I don't think I'm wrong.
3A. You SHOULDN'T *STATE* that a MOA has been signed, if you don't KNOW that as a fact.
3B. If a MOA had been signed by Thursday, surely MAK would have released it? 3C. Furthermore, MAK fell Friday (IIRC)..... so it's hard to say that the charts means that a MOA was signed on Friday!
3D. Furthermore, I have no idea how you can infer that a MOU has been signed... when the price action could EASILY be explained by the mere presence of serious discussions with a 'new' entity, a crappy stockpicker putting a buy on it, intersuisse putting a buy on it, hotcopper starting another Frenzy, stronger RP prices and a lower AUD!

Cheers


----------



## joea (21 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



ricee007 said:


> Oh, so you *DON'T* *KNOW* a MOA has been signed?
> 
> The latest the ASX has been told, IIRC, is that discussions have commenced, but have not concluded in a MOA.
> 
> ...




riceeoo7.
Sorry as I did not intend to mislead you.
There was Indian press speculation that it would soon sign a (MOU).
On checking with my information source, the word "soon" was left out.

However in the Intersuisse document I received it refers to "soon" signing.
Which infact only means maybe. I take your point.

In future I will ensure I see the document first before posting.
Actually I had thought that people had the infomation which was available (Perth, May 18th.)

Cheers Joea


----------



## ricee007 (21 May 2011)

*Re: MAK - Minemakers*



joea said:


> riceeoo7.
> Sorry as I did not intend to mislead you.
> Cheers Joea



No dramas at all... but you  did get me all excited for a minute there .

I Purchased MAK @ $2.30+

Stoploss accidentally got hit at circa $0.465

Purchased some in the $0.43 capital raising, at circa same time as I sold.

Hoping to sell for around $0.65... but we shall see how we go 

Will still be taking a massive haircut, at $0.65..... but, at least I'll have a bit more dosh lying around the place ---> probably going into a safer stock next time though


----------



## System (26 November 2015)

On November 26th, 2015, Minemakers Limited (MAK) changed its name and ASX code to Avenira Limited (AEV).


----------



## frugal.rock (25 October 2021)

Quick update via a 3 year chart.
Not held.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 October 2021)

now no longer focused on African phosphate, but a little closer to home.

*Jundee South Gold Project *

Over 720km2 of tenements in the well established Yandal Greenstone Belt, WA   
Located ~5km west of Northern Star’s 10Moz+ Jundee Mine   
Along strike to Bronzewing (Northern Star), Flushing Meadows (Yandal Resources), and 20km east of the 10 Moz Wiluna Mining Centre (Wiluna Mining)    
Recently completed AC drilling identified 2 gold trends & priority targets    
Follow up RC drilling program planned at drill targets MF02 and YaN11 for Q2 upon completion of further resampling and geological interpretation.

*Wonarah Phosphate Project *

One of Australia’s largest phosphate projects (near Tennant Creek, NY)   
Measured Resource of 64.9 Mt @ 22.4% P2O5    
Indicated Resource of 133 Mt @ 21.1% P2O5    
Inferred Resource of 352Mt @ 21% P2O5 (15% cutoff)    
Close proximity to natural gas, highway, water and export port    
Scoping study has commenced for Concentrate  and MAP/ DAP Processing project    

AEV got a speeding ticket; response was that things are tickety-boo



> (a) Increased positive sentiment with regards to the phosphate industry including a two fold increase in the Moroccan phosphate price in the last 12 months, increased activity in public announcements in phosphate technology in batteries in the last week and increased activity and sentiment in offtake deals with other listed phosphate companies in the last week.





> (b) AEV last month pegged a tenement of 80 sq km, approximately 50 kilometres from its other Jundee South tenements. This tenement is a greenfield tenement and has no resources on it, but does increase AEV’s landholding in the Yandal greenstone belt.





> (c) AEV has signed a confidentiality deed with Polyhedrous Pty Ltd. The confidentiality agreement covers the review of information on the Wonarah Phosphate Project by Polyhederous to consider a farm in, or other agreement,  in  the Project. Due diligence by Polyhederous has only just started and is expected to be completed in 2 months. At this stage there is no guarantee that a farm in or other agreement will occur at any time in the future following from the due diligence, however AEV will update the market as and when required.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 November 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> *Wonarah Phosphate Project *
> 
> One of Australia’s largest phosphate projects (near Tennant Creek, NY)
> Measured Resource of 64.9 Mt @ 22.4% P2O5
> ...



Have taken a small position at the 0.029 level. 
Partly for the phosphate prospects and the chart is looking up, although a big pullback may occur, hopefully not. If it does, I'll hopefully add to the small position.

Lots of supply delay in the  fertiliser market at the moment and is hard to get. 
I overheard a delay of 8 weeks at a local farm co-op shop recently.


----------



## frugal.rock (9 November 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Have taken a small position at the 0.029 level.
> Partly for the phosphate prospects and the chart is looking up, although a big pullback may occur, hopefully not. If it does, I'll hopefully add to the small position.



So has had a big pullback.
Have reluctantly held on. 
Haven't added yet, would want to make sure of direction for that.
Not a good trade thus far, a small entry though, so willing to mothball it away for awhile.


----------



## Springs (31 January 2022)

I have chosen AEV Avenira Ltd for Feb monthly comp a couple of good projects with the Jundee south project in WA , 5000 m RC drilling program awaiting laboratory results . Cash balance $888,000 and $2 million in liquid investments . Also appointment of Brian Campbell an experienced chemical engineer, as project manager for the Wonarah Phosphate project . Looks to have retraced from recent 3 c high in Oct/Nov buyers starting to return could swing things around always dyor & DD Springs


----------



## frugal.rock (28 March 2022)

28 March 2022
Fully Underwritten Entitlement Offer to Raise $1.45 Million

Highlights

 Launch of a 1 for 8 pro-rata non-renounceable Entitlement Offer of ordinary shares to raise approximately $1.45 million

 Offer price at $0.013 per share

 For every three (3) New Shares subscribed for and issued to a shareholder under the 
Entitlement Offer, eligible shareholders will receive one (1) attaching unlisted option

 New Options will have an exercise price of $0.022 and an expiry date of 30 April 2024

 Funds to be used for the advancement of Avenira’s Wonarah phosphate project studies and Jundee South gold exploration

 Entitlement Offer is fully underwritten by Au Xingao Investment Pty Ltd (the "Underwriter"), an existing substantial shareholder and secured lender of the Company


----------



## frugal.rock (1 April 2022)

AEV have recently appointed some geezer (Brian Campbell) to project manage the phosphate gig they have.
Keen to see some progression on this apparently huge project.

“The Wonarah Project is well positioned to leverage this strong phosphate demand growth in both LFP Battery and Agriculture applications and Mr Campbell will play a central role in the execution of this strategy.”


Wonarah Project Summary

• Large premium grade phosphate deposit in Australia (15% Cut off grade):
 Measured Resource of 64.9 Mt @ 22.4% P2O5;
 Indicated Resource of 133 Mt @ 21.1% P2O5;
 Inferred Resource of 352 Mt @ 21% P2O5.

• High Grade Component Resource of 67Mt @ 30.0% P2O5 using a 27% P2O5 Cut off grade.
• 100%-owned by Avenira.
• Scoping study to develop the *Tier 1 Wonarah Phosphate Project* to produce critical end products for LFP batteries underway with GR Engineering Services.
• Excellent infrastructure including nearby road, rail, gas, and water.
• Strategic review underway into supply/demand from:
o Lithium ferro phosphate (LiFePO4) cathode market;
o Fertilizer market.
• Ongoing discussions with strategic downstream industry participants.


----------



## frugal.rock (11 April 2022)

Not sure why the move today, but appears to be the phosphate or potash connection. AMN had a good day also.


----------



## frugal.rock (29 April 2022)

29 April 2022

$1.45 million Entitlements Offer Fully Subscribed

Avenira Limited (ASX:AEV) (“Avenira” or "Company") wishes to advise that the pro-rata non-renounceable entitlement offer to existing eligible shareholders to raise approximately $1.45 million ("Entitlement Offer") which closed on 21 April 2022 was fully subscribed.

The funds raised under the Entitlement Offer will be used to advance Avenira’s phosphate, and gold exploration projects in Australia.

A total of 111,231,602 New Shares and 37,077,000 New Options were issued to shareholders under  the entitlement offer. The unquoted options have an exercise price of $0.022 and a 30 April 2024 expiry date.

Existing shareholders applied for 52.2 million shares pursuant to the Entitlement under the Offer and also subscribed for the remaining 59.1 million Shortfall Shares.
Avenira’s Executive Chairman, Brett Clark said,
“This is a very good outcome, and we thank our shareholders for their ongoing support.

The strong global demand for phosphate for use in electric vehicle industries and agriculture has accelerated the importance of the Wonarah Phosphate Project for Avenira and these funds will allow us to progress development of the
 Tier 1 Phosphate asset.

We look forward to the outcome of the Wonarah phosphate scoping study currently underway and our team continues to investigate strategic partnerships.

We recognize the value of participation in the supply chains servicing electric vehicle and agriculture markets and will assess opportunities in the best interests of shareholders.

The prospective Jundee South gold exploration will continue to be advanced subject to receival, analysis and interpretation of drilling results from Q4, 2021 drilling program.

The continued delays in the laboratory and assaying industry with respect to results are well documented and the Company  is keenly focused to accelerate the receival of results as soon as possible.”


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## frugal.rock (19 May 2022)




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## frugal.rock (1 June 2022)

My pick for June comp.
Nothing screaming at me that it will pop, but, you never know.
There hasn't been much news lately.

From announcement 29/4

Avenira’s Executive Chairman, Brett Clark said,  
“This is a very good outcome, and we thank our shareholders for their ongoing support. The strong global demand for phosphate for use in electric vehicle industries and agriculture has accelerated the importance of the Wonarah Phosphate Project for Avenira and these funds will allow us to progress development of the Tier 1 Phosphate asset. 
We look forward to the outcome of the Wonarah phosphate scoping study currently underway and our team continues to investigate strategic partnerships. 
We recognize the value of participation in the supply chains servicing electric vehicle and agriculture markets and will assess opportunities in the best interests of shareholders. 
The prospective Jundee South gold exploration will continue to be advanced subject to receival, analysis and interpretation of drilling results from Q4, 2021 drilling program. 
The continued delays in the laboratory and assaying industry with respect to results are well documented and the Company is keenly focused to accelerate the receival of results as soon as possible.”


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## frugal.rock (1 August 2022)

From the latest quarterly;

"Scoping study to develop the Tier 1 Wonarah Phosphate  Project to produce critical end products for LFP batteries and fertilizer industries near completion with GR Engineering Services."

They don't have a lot of cash handy though.

"• Fully Subscribed Entitlement Offer to Raise $1.45 Million settled during the quarter
• Cash balance of $1.0 million on 30 June 2022"

Can probably expect a capital raise soon....
Chart oversold, just waiting on demand, imo.
Still holding a bit I got stuck with.


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## frugal.rock (16 August 2022)

Announcement ASX 16/8/22 

"Commencement of Direct Shipping Ore study and  Scoping Study update at Wonarah Phosphate Project  

HIGHLIGHTS 
• Commencement of Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) study to verify feasibility and fast  
track opportunity for rapid market supply 
• Rock Phosphate 32% P2O5 prices have increased approximately 400% from a 10  year low in April 2020 
• The high-grade nature of the Wonarah Phosphate Project is advantageous to  
regional offtake partners 
• Historic 400,000t bulk sample provides great evidence of quality and feasibility of the orebody 
• Avenira has appointed engineering firm Bechtel Australia Pty Ltd to complete  
Scoping Study"

"Scoping Study Update  

The Wonarah Scoping Study to develop the Tier 1 Wonarah Phosphate Project to produce critical end products for LFP batteries and fertilizer industries is near completion with existing work completed by GR Engineering Services. 
Part of this work completed included a strategic review of both the Lithium Ferro Phosphate (LiFePO4) pre-cursor cathode market, and the global fertilizer market. 
This review determined the appointment of an additional Engineer was necessary to complete the Scoping Study due to the increased scope of downstream Ferro Phosphate and Lithium Ferro Phosphate manufacturing opportunities. 

Avenira Ltd has appointed Bechtel Australia Pty Ltd (Bechtel) to complete an evaluation of the technology for a Battery Grade Lithium Iron Phosphate Powder Plant (LFP) for application in Australia.
 The Project continues to use the Wonarah Phosphate deposit to feed a high purity phosphoric acid plant and will seek to combine this with a downstream LFP manufacturing plant located potentially in Darwin or Perth."


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

The hot air balloon ran out of gas quite quickly.
Hopefully the scoping study is finished for a September competition balloon ride.
1.2 cent still looking like a support base. Have been happy lately with the depth improving.


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## frugal.rock (31 August 2022)

Can't believe someone would sell 1 share (just before close) to drop the share price by 2 ticks on the last calendar trading day of the month. Sounds like a rotten tactic to try and get a head start on a monthly competition...
🙀😹


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## frugal.rock (5 September 2022)

Can't believe someone would buy up just 1 share in the closing auction.
NB; I am not responsible for these shenanigans despite the situation assisting my cause. 🤔


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## frugal.rock (21 September 2022)

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT AND MEDIA RELEASE 
21 September 2022 

Avenira signs MOU with Aleees and NT Government to develop  
downstream manufacturing of LFP cathode material 

HIGHLIGHTS 

• Avenira signs tripartite non-binding MOU in relation to the Wonarah Project with global LFP cathode manufacturer, Aleees and the NT Government 

• The three parties will work together towards a LFP battery cathode manufacturing  facility in a phased capacity program starting at 5,000-10,000 tpa in 2023/24 and  
potentially scaling to 200,000 tpa by 2032

@debtfree and @Faramir 
Hopefully this has me floating up near the top of the ladder, if you are still looking for me that is.😁


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## frugal.rock (21 September 2022)

Further of the announcement in previous post.

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) 
Avenira (ASX: AEV) is pleased to advise it has signed a non-binding MOU with world leading LFP battery  
manufacturer, Advanced Lithium Electrochemistry Ltd (Aleees), (TWSE: 5227) and the Northern Territory  
(NT) Government to investigate and work towards the development of a Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) 
battery cathode manufacturing plant in Darwin, Australia, leveraging Avenira’s flagship Wonarah Phosphate Project.  

The NT Government has recognised the potential to leverage the natural resources in the Northern Territory and is marketing itself as a stable supplier of critical minerals. 
With the Wonarah Project working  
towards the production of phosphoric acid, and the availability of other abundant battery metals such as  
lithium and iron in Australia, the next step of producing LFP cathode material is a logical value-add for all parties. 

The NT Government has indicated as part of the MOU that it will work proactively with Aleees and Avenira to assist and advise where appropriate in relation to necessary infrastructure including water, energy, power, telecommunications, road, port and rail access and service requirements. 

Aleees is a globally recognised LFP battery cathode material manufacturer.

It is one of the few companies  
outside China with complete LFP cathode material manufacturing capability and patents for electric  
vehicle and stationary storage batteries. Aleees owns more than 120 exclusive patents worldwide, with customers including investment grade energy storage battery and EV battery customers across Europe, U.S., Japan, Korea, and Asia. Aleees co-develops various types of LFP products with more than 40 global customers, and produces high-quality, low-cost, and long life-cycle LFP cathode materials. 

The potential scale and development timeline under consideration by Aleees and Avenira includes a LFP battery pre cursor cathode manufacturing facility in a phased capacity program as follows:  

Phase 1 – 5000 - 10,000 tpa in 2023/24 (First LFP plant module) 
Phase 2 – expansion to 30,000 tpa in 2025 
Phase 3 – expansion to ~100,000 tpa in 2028 
Phase 4 – expansion to ~200,000 tpa in 2032 

Avenira has engaged global engineering firm Bechtel to perform a Scoping Study of a Battery Grade Phosphoric Acid Plant and a Battery Grade Lithium Iron Phosphate Powder Plant (LFP). Both plants will source phosphate from the premium grade Wonarah phosphate deposit in the Northern Territory.

Avenira’s Executive Chairman, Mr. Brett Clark commented,  
“We are proud to reach this MOU alongside Aleees and the Northern Territory Government as we jointly  
work towards a Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery cathode manufacturing facility.  
“This MOU opens the door for Avenira to learn from Aleees about LFP battery cathode manufacturing technology and leverage this experience to optimise the production of phosphoric acid from the Wonarah Project and develop downstream assets to produce Australia’s first LFP pre cursor cathode material."

Nothern Territory Chief Minister, Natasha Fyles, commented, 
“Today’s announcement is a significant economic and strategic opportunity for the Northern Territory.  

“Increasing demand and the transition to renewable energy, battery storage and use of high technology products has resulted in global organisations looking to establish diversified, reliable and stable supply  
chains."

“The project will position the Territory as the next Australian home of advanced manufacturing, develop new skills and jobs, as well as support our objective to achieve a $40 billion economy by 2030."

“With the potential to create 1,000 jobs this project will benefit Territorians from the Top End to the Barkly with the manufacturing plant to be built in Darwin, which will exclusively source phosphate from the Wonarah Phosphate Project in the Barkly.”


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## frugal.rock (21 September 2022)

Volume up there today at a level not seen for nearly a year. It sure went for a nice run last time it saw this kind of interest.
Will have to do a bit more FA on it, but after today's announcement, I think it's turning into a long term keeper.


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## frugal.rock (27 September 2022)

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT AND MEDIA RELEASE 26 September 2022  

Avenira- Aleees MOU sets out LFP cathode manufacturing pathway 

HIGHLIGHTS 

• Avenira signs non-binding MOU with global LFP cathode manufacturer, Aleees to jointly develop a LFP battery cathode manufacturing facility in Darwin, Northern Territory 

• Parties to work towards an initial 5,000-10,000tpa in 2023/24, potentially scaling to 200,000tpa by 2032 

• Avenira proposes to construct the LFP plant, sourcing phosphoric acid feed from its flagship Wonarah Phosphate project in the Northern Territory 

• Aleees will grant licensing rights and certain development, operational and  
management support


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## frugal.rock (2 October 2022)

My ⛏️ for October 2022


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## frugal.rock (5 October 2022)

"Tesla recently revealed its intent to adopt lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in its standard range vehicles. What do LFP batteries have on Li-ion?"​








						A Closer Look at Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries, Tesla’s New Choice of Battery - News
					

Tesla recently revealed its intent to adopt lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in its standard range vehicles. What do LFP batteries have on Li-ion?




					www.allaboutcircuits.com


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## Dona Ferentes (15 October 2022)

Non-binding ... will LFP ever be produced outside China, given their head-start and cost advantage?


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## frugal.rock (22 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> will LFP ever be produced outside China, given their head-start and cost advantage?



There seems to be a growing thing against sourcing in China, or at least ensuring other supply lines. 
If the rest of the world is to have a part in economic benefit from the green transition, buying outside of China has to occur.
I read a stat a while ago that basically implied China has a huge world dominance of supply of "green transition products" whilst not being very green at all to produce it all. 🤨

Either way, at the end of the day, if Avenira's Tier 1 phosphate deposit isn't mined for majority lithium iron phosphate battery production, it's still a heck of a lot of fertiliser which is valuable in it's own right.


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## frugal.rock (3 November 2022)

🤐


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## frugal.rock (15 November 2022)

10 November 2022

Wonarah Phosphate Project
Direct Shipping Ore (DSO)
Project Update

Avenira Limited (ASX: AEV) (“Avenira” or “the Company”) is pleased to provide the  following update on the proposed DSO Phosphate Project, to mine and sell high-grade phosphate ore from its Tier 1, 100% owned Wonarah Phosphate Project to third parties to produce high-purity phosphoric acid (the “DSO Project”).

Highlights:

• Testing has confirmed Wonarah Ore to be well suited for the production of battery-grade Phosphoric Acid due to its high grade, physical robustness and large consistent lump sizing.
o Ore samples from Wonarah have exceeded product specification requirements for production of high purity phosphoric acid.

• Offtake discussions are well advanced, with a binding offtake agreement
expected to be executed for the sale of up to 600,000tpa of high grade, high
value Wonarah DSO phosphate ore.

• AMC Consultants Pty Ltd have been engaged to conduct a mining front-end
engineering design study (FEED). Completion of this work is targeted for
November 2022.

• The Northern Territory Government is expected to issue a Mining Licence
after the final submission of the revised Mine Management Plan for the DSO
Project, which is being developed by EcOz Environmental Consulting in
tandem with the FEED Study.

• Negotiations are progressing with road haulage contractors and rail operator
Aurizoni for transport of DSO material from Wonarah to Darwin Port, where it
will be shipped to SE Asian offtakers.

• Negotiations with the Arruwurra Aboriginal Corporation regarding a Mining Agreement are progressing well, with a mutual understanding of the benefits of the fast-track opportunity.

• Prices for high grade Phosphate ore (32% P2O5) continue to trade at or near
record highs, and are expected to remain elevatedii throughout 2023 and 2024 due to global fertiliser shortages and the accelerating adoption of Lithium Ferro Phosphate battery cells.


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## frugal.rock (15 November 2022)

_Currently waiting for voluntary suspension lift with further information on above announcement. _

14/11/2022

"Avenira Limited ('Avenira' or 'the Company') refers to its trading halt request dated 10 November
2022.

In accordance with Listing Rule 17.2, Avenira requests its securities be placed in voluntary suspension effective from the commencement of trading on Monday, 14 November 2022, pending release of an update to Avenira’s ASX Announcement on 10 November 2022.

In accordance with Listing Rule 17.2 the Company provides the following information:
1. The reason for the voluntary suspension is for the Company to provide further information on the 10 November 2022 announcement.

2. The Company requests that the suspension continue until the earlier of commencement of  trading on Thursday 17 November 2022, or when an announcement is made regarding the matters referred to in paragraph 1"


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## frugal.rock (30 November 2022)

December comp' pick.

"The mining FEED Study is due to be completed in November 2022 and the revised Mine Management Plan is currently expected to be completed in December 2022."
(mining front-end engineering design (FEED) study)

Haven't had a feed yet.


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