# FLX - Felix Resources



## Dutchy3 (20 January 2006)

Has some potential building


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## noirua (3 February 2006)

The main producing mines are Yarrabee, Minerva and Ashton that are estimated to produce A$58 million profits after tax for the year ending 2006. Early projections were for profits, before tax, as high at A$105 million for 2007, these estimates are being scaled back due to lower thermal coal prices. 

Coming onstream is Ashton underground that should be fully producing in a year or so.

The jewel in the crown is the Moolarben tenement. The open-cut mine is planned to produce 4 - 6 million tonnes pa of premium thermal coal for the year ending 2008. It will be a low-cost mine that Felix are very much looking forward to fast track.

The Moolarben underground will be in full production at 4 million tonnes pa for the year ending 2010.

Other projects are Athena, Harry Brandt, Phillipson ( option for royalties ), Hawks Nest and other iron ore tenements and ADC ( 21.5% interest with Ausmelt ). 

All this coal has to be sold of course, not stockpiled.


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## noirua (7 February 2006)

GSJB Were Reverses Sell on Coal Sector.

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3494&setSub=1


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## michael_selway (7 February 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> GSJB Were Reverses Sell on Coal Sector.
> 
> http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3494&setSub=1




hehe yeah, keep an eye on

EXL, CEY, MCC, GCL, FLX, COK


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## noirua (7 February 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> hehe yeah, keep an eye on
> 
> EXL, CEY, MCC, GCL, FLX, COK





Felix does have a question mark, long term, costs versus profits. 

Some seem to have forgotten ( that includes GSJB Were and all the other analysts and forecasters ) the other assets held by Felix Resources.

A). Phillipson Basin tenements in South Australia ( contains over 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal ) that include the Ingomar Trial Pit and 100 million tonnes of easily accessible coal. At present NRG Flinders Power Partnership, has an option agreement giving it the right to explore on,  evaluate and purchase the tenements. If NRGF acquires the tenements Felix will receive an upfront payment and be entitled to royalties for coal produced from the tenements.
An agreement was signed in May 2004. If Flinders go ahead by May 2007 payments will markedly increase over the next 3 year period.

B). Felix have a holding in Hawks Nest ( 90% via their subsiduary S.A.S.E. )and the Peculiar Knob and Sequoia tenements. These are estimated to hold around 800 million tonnes of Iron Ore that varies between low and high grade. An evaluation is being carried out on Sequoia and Peculiar Knob, they hold approx 21 million tonnes of high grade iron ore.

C). Felix owns a 21.5% stake in ADC with Manager Ausmelt who hold 78.5%. This involves the building and supply of future top lanced ferrous technology. ADC also owns the Pig Iron evaluation plant that Felix has certain rights over through its 90% ownership of S.A.S.E.
S.A.S.E. owns the rights to the supply of Ausmelts Ausiron(R) top lanced technology in South Australia.
Felix also own 2.5% of Ausmelt.
Ausmelt have stated - http://www.ausmelt.com.au - that companies have recently shown increased interest in furthering a ferrous top-Lanced Pig Iron plant in South Australia.

D). Felix own 100% of Ballymoney Power and Associate Companies, which are being directed and Managed through Felix MD Mr Jon Parker. The Ballymoney Power mine holds approx 600 million tonnes of lignite in Ballymoney, Northern Ireland. The NI Government have put a hold on further exploration rights until November 2008.

E). Felix Gold Holdings, that were due to be floated in Canada about 11 years ago - it never happened. Felix have certain rights to royalties on these gold holdings. Felix have not made any comment on these holdings recently.


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## michael_selway (8 February 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix does have a question mark, long term, costs versus profits.
> 
> Some seem to have forgotten ( that includes GSJB Were and all the other analysts and forecasters ) the other assets held by Felix Resources.
> 
> ...




Omg it dropped so much today!

Is thsi one still cheap?

-----------------------------

7 February 2006
Felix Company Update
SUMMARY
1. First-half unaudited profit after tax for FY 2006 is estimated at $14 million
This compares with $1.67 million ($1.57 million IFRS adj.) in the previous corresponding
period.
2. First-half sales are down 4%; costs are in line with budget
3. Sales volumes for FY 2006, in aggregate, are on track
Lower than budget PCI and semi-soft coking coal sales volumes are forecast to be
offset by additional thermal coal sales.
4. Revised guidance for the full financial year is $29 million to $34 million
The revision is a reduction in profit of approximately 50% compared to that indicated
previously. The decrease is mostly due to lower revenue caused by a softening in PCI
and semi soft coking coal markets; prices to be realised for Felix production are now
likely to be materially less than budget.
5. Production and sales from Minerva are ramping up over the March Quarter
A new truck fleet will be commissioned by end of March allowing mining productivity to
increase significantly. Commissioning of a dedicated Minerva stockpile at the Port of
Gladstone is due in April and is expected to ease port constraint risks for Minerva.
6. Development of the Ashton underground mine is on track
● Mine development is advancing as planned
● Key equipment ordering and delivery and design work are progressing well.
7. Moolarben pre-development is proceeding according to plan
● The Moolarben Major Project Application has received ministerial acceptance
● Final exploration for the initial phase of mining is now concluding and will result in an
upgrade of the Resource to Indicated & Measured status
● Scoping for engineering design for the mine and wash plant are progressing well


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## noirua (8 February 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Omg it dropped so much today!
> 
> Is thsi one still cheap?
> 
> ...




Oh well, it's only a matter of weeks ago that MD Mr Jon Parker, agreed that 2006 profits would drop A$8 million to A$58 million after tax - after pressure from the ASX.
How things have changed that much is puzzling, did the MD really not know what the true situation was when the ASX announcement was made?

Are they still cheap? - Ask me in 2010 when Felix reach full production.


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## trader (8 February 2006)

Makes you wonder if you can trust even these figures , could there be another down grade in 2 months time . Wouldn't but these now for any
amount above $1.50 .


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## Dutchy3 (8 February 2006)

Bit of a spinning day. In no way fif this ever present itself as a buy for me. Ironically though todays action could actually be a fantastic buy opportunity.


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## noirua (9 February 2006)

Probably best to see the dust settle on Felix after recent events.

SASE Project ( Explanation of the tie up of Felix Resources and Ausmelt - http://www.ausmelt.com.au/ausiron.htm )

Shareholders approved the transaction on 28th March 2003.

Key aspects of the agreement include:

A newly formed 100% owned subsiduary of Ausmelt ("AET")- AUSIRON DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Pty Ltd ( "ADC") - became the sole vehicle for the development, marketing and commercialisation of AUSIRON(R) Technology.
Ausmelt assigned to ADC the perpetual exclusive global rights to the Ausiron(R) Technology.

Felix Resource's ("FLX") 90% 0wned subsiduary SASE Pty Ltd ("SASE") transferred its Whyalla pig iron DEMONSTRATION PLANT to ADC in return for a  21.5% share of ADC's royalty and licensing revenues.
SASE has the right to convert the revenue share ( at no cost ) into a 21.5% shareholding in ADC if ADC is publicly listed, or into Ausmelt shares of equivalent value if ADC is not listed withing 4 years. ( Ausmelt have a 5% interest in SASE and Krakatau Steel 5% )

FLX subscribed for 1 million shares in Ausmelt at $1 each and Ausmelt invested the funds in ADC to provide working capital. The shares were released from escrow by April 2004.

SASE has a two year option to increase its interest in ADC to a maximum of 28% on payment of $280,000 per 1% increment.
AS no announcement was made by March 2005 the option is taken to have lapsed.

SASE also has the right to participate in any projects using the Ausiron(R) Technology where ADC is able to obtain an equity interest.

Existing rights and benefits of SASE to use and apply the Ausiron(R) Technology are preserved. ( This refers to rights within South Australia )

SASE and ADC have undertaken to contribute equally to payment of the $1.665 million termination payment in regard to the R & D START grant. ( Payments were made in 2003 )

If ADC is not listed within 4 years, and SASE elects to convert its ADC interest into Ausmelt shares. Ausmelt may choose to pay SASE the equivalent value in cash rather than issue Ausmelt shares.

( There is also a right in certain circumstance for the Whyalla Demonstration plant to be returned to SASE ).

( SASE also owns the 100% rights to the Iron Ore reserves at Hawks Nest,  Peculiar Knob, Giffen Well and Sequoia tenements in South Australia, as well as the Watson Limestone reserve. )


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## noirua (13 February 2006)

Ilwella Pty and Gaffick Pty have increased their substantial holdings in Felix Resources.


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## michael_selway (13 February 2006)

trader said:
			
		

> Makes you wonder if you can trust even these figures , could there be another down grade in 2 months time . Wouldn't but these now for any
> amount above $1.50 .




yeah they missed forecasts by 50%

At current

However based on not updated forecasts, their current forward 2008 P/E is 3.6


Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 28.7 35.3 52.7 
DPS 2.0 5.9 7.6 9.8


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## michael_selway (20 February 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> yeah they missed forecasts by 50%
> 
> At current
> 
> ...




Omg on Comsec, see the difference to the forecats now...nearly halved for 2008!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 15.9 23.8 27.2 
DPS 2.0 4.0 7.9 8.2


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## noirua (21 February 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Omg on Comsec, see the difference to the forecats now...nearly halved for 2008!
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...




The forecasts ( original and revised ) are of course correct, with everything down to the price obtained for the various grades of thermal coal, PCI coal and semi-soft coking in the years ahead.

The worry is the cost of financing the Minerva, Ashton U/G, Moolarben O/C and U/G and Harry Brandt. If thermal coal prices stay at US$48 per tonne or above, then financing will not prove a big problem, however, if the price slips below US$39 per tonne it becomes a different matter.

Buying by major holders of Felix Resources stock has been encouraging, as profits at the low-cost Moolarben Open Cast mine are set to boost profits considerably from early 2008.

Felix do have all the mine developments on track and the financing of Ashton Underground is in place, as are most of the proceeds on the sale of 20% of the Ashton mine.

The following is " forgotten " in analysts estimates :-

Possible go ahead for either Sequoia or Peculiar Knob high grade iron ore tenements is awaited and there remains hope of long term interest in the Hawks Nest, low to high grade, iron ore tenements in South Australia, that are well positioned for future supply to OneSteels plant at the City of Whyalla.

The Phillipson ( 5 billion tonnes ) tenement in South Australia has a sale or/and royalties option for supply of sub-bitumous coal. NRG Flinders holds the three year option until May 2007. ( see post 7th Feb 2006 ).

There are also the Ballymoney Lignite reserves in Ballymoney, ADC and the gold royalties. These are all outside possibilities for future profits.

So, Felix do have more than their coal mines in play here.


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## noirua (27 February 2006)

The Full Half Yearly report from Felix looks FLAT and the Board set to continue on the same development path. Unless something cheery turns up from the " forgotten " South Australian Iron Ore holdings or Gold options, everything is on the coal price. NOT sending PCI coal as contracted ( SURELY there was a written agreement to supply PCI coal at PCI prices - was there a let out clause ? ), puts food for thought as to whether the present large Board of Directors and two secretaries have lost the plot a bit ??


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## noirua (1 March 2006)

" COAL, the come-back kid "

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=5&id=3637&setSub=1


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## noirua (3 March 2006)

Merrill Lynch has forecast higher prices for thermal coals. 2006 raised from US$43 to US$48 and 2007 from US$40 to US$48 per tonne.

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=2&id=3663&setSub=1


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## noirua (8 March 2006)

As Felix Resources continue on their development path regardless they may well be failing to look at other alternatives. As China looks to further development of coal powered Fire PowerStations, surely the board will focus more; firstly on the the steaming coal development, Phillipson ( Arckaringa, with 11 billion tonnes of steaming coal was dropped as an exploration tenement ) and then on the Iron Ore tenements. 
After that they must really stop failing to respond on their Gold Royalty position on the Indonesian Gold Mines, they were once valued at C$300 million and must be worth Annual Royalties eventually in the region of A$10 to A$20 million. ( The ASX gives information going back to 1998 in the form of ASX announcements )
The question marks remain, maybe, just maybe Felix will let us know what is happening ???????????????????????


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## noirua (24 March 2006)

Well, Mr Jon Parker has resigned very sharply from Felix Resources as Managing Director. Mr Brian Flannery replaces him as MD immediately.
This may be just the first of several to head for the exit.

There is much to be done to repair the image of this recovering company that has lost its way recently.


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## noirua (28 March 2006)

Felix are trading in the A$1.80 to A$2.00 range and are just rising and falling on each scrap of news that arrives on the scene. A new Management impetuous could easily revive this fine company, which in my view is underpriced due to lack of confidence and direction. As the Aussie Dollar weakens and coal prices hold at higher levels than expected confidence should rise and profits accordingly.

Terminal delay at the Port of Gladstone is improving with 15 vessels at anchor for RG Tanna Terminal. Deliveries in Jan / Feb were substantial, about 350k from Yarrabee and 160k from Minerva. March deliveries were lower and final deliveries were confused by lack of mine details.


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## noirua (4 April 2006)

Closed just above the $2.00 level, hopefully about to break strongly out of the $1.80 to $2.00 range. Awaiting an announcement from the new MD shortly.


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## michael_selway (4 April 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Closed just above the $2.00 level, hopefully about to break strongly out of the $1.80 to $2.00 range. Awaiting an announcement from the new MD shortly.




yeah hopefully soem good news, they atm cant be trusted imo

missed their forecasts by like 50%!

thx

MS


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## noirua (10 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> yeah hopefully soem good news, they atm cant be trusted imo
> 
> missed their forecasts by like 50%!
> 
> ...




All is quiet at camp Felix at the moment, as the dust settles and the sunsets over the Parker reign. They need to do deals as the cash situation could become increasingly difficult both this year and next. There are signs that coal is being sold more quickly, as profit margins have fallen following the PCI coal sold as thermal problem.

Financing Minerva cost about $62 million and much more was needed for Ashton Underground and Moolarben open cut. Following this there are extra costs for the Moolarben Underground, Harrybrandt and other projects. There are further thoughts on ADC ( 21.5% interest ) and whether the Phillipson and Hawks Nest tenements are at long last going to be fruitful.

The new MD needs to revive confidence that has plunged of late.


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## noirua (11 April 2006)

The following link gives a more bullish view for the coal sector.

http://www.peabodyenergy.com/pdfs/irpres.pdf


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## noirua (18 April 2006)

The six major shareholders now have over 65% of the shares of Felix Resources and the company has chosen to freeze information on their bulletin board. Gaffwick and Ilwella notably increased their share holding.

Major holders are: RMM 17%, Gaffwick 15.5%, Ilwella 15.5%, Fibora 7.5%, Greenworth 5% and Leopold Station 5%.


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## noirua (19 April 2006)

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/innovations/stories/s1478411.htm

http://www.felixresources.com.au/ucc.htm

Felix has and advanced programme in ultra clean coal.


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## noirua (20 April 2006)

Analysts Report: http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060329_Wilsons_HTM_research_paper.pdf


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## noirua (21 April 2006)

The following is information about FLX by a person named Neil. Some of the information is not completely accurate though interesting all the same. Obviously a person who appears a little in the know.


http://longterm.blogspot.com/2005/12/felix-resources-case-for-coal.html


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## noirua (27 April 2006)

Third quarter report:

http://www.felixresources.com.au


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## noirua (4 May 2006)

Felix development expectations: http://www.felixresources.com.au/project_development.htm


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## noirua (10 May 2006)

Felix Resources Coal Shipments from Gladstone Port, RG Tanna Terminal:

40,100T  -  Azu Cielo  --  10/5/06  - Yarabbee
52,800T  -  Marjatta P  -  9/5/06  -  Yarrabee
16,500T  -  Atlar  ------  9/5/06  -   Yarrabee
134,100T -  Monalisa  --  9/5/06  -   Minerva 
75,000T   -  Cape Orchid  6/5/06  -   Yarrabee
16,000T   -  Brilliant River 10/5/06  -  Yarrabee
33,000T   -  CS Rainbow   26/4/06  -  Minerva

Total tonnage in the period is 376,500T. There were no indications to say the type of coal being shipped.


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## noirua (10 May 2006)

Felix are continuing to fight their way out of the profits downgrade position they were in, just before MD Jon Parker left the helm. Coal sales are moving along well, with 367,500 tonnes to be moved in the two week period to 10/5/2006.
FLX should move out of the $1.80 - $2.00 range and creep on up towards $2.40.


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## noirua (10 May 2006)

Felix have moved ahead to close at $2.12 and are now out of the $1.80 - $2.00 rut they have been in for sometime. Coal stocks are set to move on after a long period in the gloom, IMHO.


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## noirua (16 May 2006)

Felix Resources have a 90% interest in the Hawks Nest Reserves in South Australia, near to the City of Whyalla.

http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/byteserve/minerals/temp/iron_ore_280504.pdf


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## noirua (18 May 2006)

Latest analysts report: http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060426_ABNAmro.pdf


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## noirua (23 May 2006)

Felix have held up well at $1.90 today, quite a performance for a weak stock, as commodity shares crash. 
Thoughts that Moolarben's increased coal reserves and low costs will raise profits dramatically by 2008. Extra profits from the Phillipson coal reserves and Hawks Nest Iron Ore reserves may arrive at the same time.
The Ausmelt 2.5% shareholding and likely value of the 21.5% holding in Ausmelt's ADC are further factors.


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## noirua (30 May 2006)

German trading of FLX: http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/search.asp?search=felix+resources&x=14&y=9


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## noirua (30 May 2006)

WisonsHTM have upgraded Felix Resources to a " BUY " and say, " Moolarben is significantly under-valued. "  12 month price target $2.78.

http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060508_Wilson_HTM.pdf


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## michael_selway (30 May 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> WisonsHTM have upgraded Felix Resources to a " BUY " and say, " Moolarben is significantly under-valued. "
> 
> http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060508_Wilson_HTM.pdf




Yeah they how low forward PE (good growth in EPS)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 11.3 24.8 20.5 
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.8 6.1 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 11.3 16.7 12.1% 
Year Ending 30-06-07 24.8 7.6 119.5% 

However, they missed their forecasts by 50% last year, just cant be trusted!

But might be once off who knows   

thx

MS


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## noirua (15 June 2006)

The Moolarben Coal Mine will come onstream with first production of high quality thermal coal in 2007, reaching production of 4 million tonnes in 2008 and rising to 10 million tonnes by 2010.

http://www.felixresources.com.au/moolarben.htm

A Community Newsletter is produced which updates progress on the Moolarben Mine: http://www.felixresources.com.au/Moolarben_Newsletters/Newsletter_002.pdf


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## noirua (19 June 2006)

Felix Resources have upgraded the Moolarben Open Cut Mine (  the Jewel in the Crown of Felix Resources ) in NSW from 275m tonnes to 309m tonnes: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060619/pdf/3x6k14bvk0540.pdf


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## noirua (22 June 2006)

Gaffwick Pty increased their holding in FLX to 27,584,706 shares and 2,250,000 class B shares.


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## michael_selway (22 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Gaffwick Pty increased their holding in FLX to 27,584,706 shares and 2,250,000 class B shares.




i wonder why

Fwd 2008 PE = 1.70/0.381 = 4.46

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 11.3 24.8 38.1 
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.8 6.2 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 11.3 15.0 12.1% 
Year Ending 30-06-07 24.8 6.8 119.5% 

however are they goign to miss forecasts by 50% again like they did last yr?

thx

MS


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## noirua (23 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Gaffwick Pty increased their holding in FLX to 27,584,706 shares and 2,250,000 class B shares.




Gaffwick Pty have further increased their holding in FLX by 113,163 shares. Their holding is now 27,697,869 shares and 2.250,000 class B shares.


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## noirua (27 June 2006)

This report by " Aireview " looks more favourable on thermal coal: http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4039&setSub=1


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## michael_selway (29 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> This report by " Aireview " looks more favourable on thermal coal: http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4039&setSub=1




Seems like they downgraded 2006 and 2007 forecasts but lifted the 2008 one

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 11.3 24.8 38.1 
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.8 6.2 

Was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 10.6 21.3 55.7 
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.8 6.2


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## noirua (29 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Seems like they downgraded 2006 and 2007 forecasts but lifted the 2008 one
> 
> thx
> 
> ...




Hi m_s, Yes, It does look as if Felix want everyone to forget what's happening now and fix their eyes on 2008.


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## noirua (30 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Hi m_s, Yes, It does look as if Felix want everyone to forget what's happening now and fix their eyes on 2008.




Felix still have to pay capital and interest on the A$62 million loan for Minerva -70% owned by Felix and 30% by Sojitz - and the A$75 million for development of the Ashton Longwall Underground mine, the latter shared 60% by Felix, 20% by Itochu Group of Japan and 20% by Singapore based IMC. Despite the sale of 20% of the Ashton Open-cut and longwall development to IMC Group, that gave Felix A$20.425 million in Aug 2005 and a further A$10 million once the Longwall development commences.


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## noirua (2 July 2006)

The position for thermal coal sales remains good. http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4039&setSub=1


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## noirua (4 July 2006)

Boardroom Radio update on Moolarben Resources and General Company Update - interview with Mr Brian Flannery MD:

http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/11927


Software check, if you have problems http://www.brr.com.au/include/softwarecheck.jsp


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## noirua (10 July 2006)

Felix have continued their gradual recovery as they trade at $1.85 this morning. After the MD's radio report on Moolarben and the increasing confidence in thermal coal pricing, the outcome for the Y/E June 30th 06 is looking better, despite demurrage problems.


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## noirua (12 July 2006)

Felix continue this recovery phase and have reached $1.95 this morning. Moolarben hopes make this one look cheap, IMHO.


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## noirua (13 July 2006)

Further encouraging news for Felix should help the stock when the market opens on Thursday.

A $33 million cheque for Felix by selling 21.4% of it's stake in the Minerva and Athena projects. ( equates to 15% of the whole project and Felix retain a 55% interest ) : http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060712/pdf/3xjlgxp2cdzss.pdf


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## michael_selway (13 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Further encouraging news for Felix should help the stock when the market opens on Thursday.
> 
> A $33 million cheque for Felix by selling 21.4% of it's stake in the Minerva and Athena projects. ( equates to 15% of the whole project and Felix retain a 55% interest ) : http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060712/pdf/3xjlgxp2cdzss.pdf




Not bad its rebounded well in recent weeks

thx

MS


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## noirua (13 July 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Not bad its rebounded well in recent weeks
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Should continue upwards, infact nearly at $2.00 now, and may well get back to $2.20.


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## noirua (14 July 2006)

Felix look quite solid now and may be looking for further partners to come in on the lucrative Moolarben. 
The yearly results - year ending June 06 are out very shortly - should show Felix with a profit around $40 million and better than expected forecasts for 2007 and 2008.
Despite the costs for developing Minerva and Ashton Longwall, total around $137 million, cash coming this year from selling interests is around $55 million with a further $10 million to be received for Ashton.


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## noirua (18 July 2006)

Felix closed today at $2.12, up 10 cents, continuing the present bullish run from low levels. Target in the range $2.30 - $2.50, up around 40%, looks a likely outcome - driven as they are by Moolarben.


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## noirua (20 July 2006)

Confirmation from Xstrata that it has agreed US$52 per tonne for Aust thermal coal supplies to Japan has been a good lift for Felix Resources who's Annual Results are due shortly. Felix's coal is mainly thermal coal with some PCI supplied and semi-soft coking: http://www.industrysearch.com.au/news/viewrecord.aspx?id=20932


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## noirua (21 July 2006)

Felix are moving up quickly and have added 12 cents more today at $2.24. The company is tightly held with nearly 70% of stock held by the major five stockholders. Annual results are due next week. There have been NO rumours of a likely bidder for FLX although it would be virtually cut and dried if the major holders agreed. 

Some moves can be expected concerning the jewel in the crown tenement " MOOLARBEN " that may produce in excess of 10 million tonnes of thermal coal, acceptable for export, and the open cut part of the mine will be a low cost producer.


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## michael_selway (21 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix are moving up quickly and have added 12 cents more today at $2.24. The company is tightly held with nearly 70% of stock held by the major five stockholders. Annual results are due next week. There have been NO rumours of a likely bidder for FLX although it would be virtually cut and dried if the major holders agreed.
> 
> Some moves can be expected concerning the jewel in the crown tenement " MOOLARBEN " that may produce in excess of 10 million tonnes of thermal coal, acceptable for export, and the open cut part of the mine will be a low cost producer.




Their forecast for next year, will be the main thing in the results

This year they missed forecast by 50% previously

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 11.3 24.8 38.1 
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.9 6.2 

thx

MS


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## noirua (23 July 2006)

Fourth Quarterly Report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060721/pdf/3xn25vfzw21nl.pdf


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## noirua (23 July 2006)

The past year to end of June 2006 was a poor one for Felix, that is, if you compare this with early forecasts.

Felix will not be giving the full years details until 26th August and have failed to give the end of year profit figures, as yet. AGM on 27th October 2006.

Coal sales rose by 100,000 tonnes at Yarrabee, 922,000 tonnes at Ashton ( 60% owned ) and 888,000 tonnes at Minerva ( 70% owned ). How much coal was sold in the period at PCI prices, against the original expectations? 

Prices of thermal coal varied during the year, starting strongly and finishing strongly, however, the average price over the year is important to the Final profits figure.

Demurrage ( shipping delay ) costs rose sharply to $5 million during the year with the biggest hit in the Final Quarter.

It will be interesting to see what dividend is declared with profits some $30 - $40 million down on expectations. Basically, with all the loans outstanding they can't realistically afford one this year.

I suppose Felix will be glad to get the year to June 2006 out of the way and show the encouraging expectations for 2007 onwards.


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## noirua (24 July 2006)

Felix are now at $2.32, - up 10 cents - as the rebound continues. Felix may be in talks with a possible partner in the Moolarben open-cut and underground mine; This would help with the cost of developing the latter.


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## noirua (2 August 2006)

Wilson HTM's analysts report for Felix Resources, " Turning the Corner ": http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060724_Wilson_HTM_report.pdf


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## noirua (3 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Wilson HTM's analysts report for Felix Resources, " Turning the Corner ": http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060724_Wilson_HTM_report.pdf




Felix are back to $2.35 today after a bullish analysts report, should move on to test $2.50 shortly.


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## noirua (7 August 2006)

Well, Felix touched the all important $2.50 position on the chart last Friday and may find it more difficult to press on upwards from here. 


@@@@@@@@@@@@ not quite finished yet!


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## noirua (7 August 2006)

Well, Felix touched the all important $2.50 position on the chart last Friday and may find it more difficult to press on upwards from here. The recovery shows a rise of over 50%, with no profit taking so far, on the back of more encouraging thermal coal prices and the valuation of the the jewel in the crown tenement at Moolarben. 

Full years results are due on 26th August 2006.


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## noirua (14 August 2006)

Felix have fallen back a bit after the 50%+ run up. The full results are due on 26th August with continuing comments on the interest in the companies Moolarben prospect.


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## noirua (14 August 2006)

Sojitz have exercised their pre-emptive rights to purchase a further 15% of the Minerva Mine and Athena Project for $33 million, their stake is 45% with Felix holding 55%.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060814/pdf/3xz23hp7ydzqf.pdf


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## noirua (17 August 2006)

Felix are trading at $2.52 after the fall-back to $2.35 last week. May be building up steam for another run before the 2006 full results next week.


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## Sean K (17 August 2006)

Interesting.

If it holds above $2.50, $3.00 is looking good.


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## haemitite (18 August 2006)

Up over 2.70 today, a speeding ticket from the regulator is overdue


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## noirua (19 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix does have a question mark, long term, costs versus profits.
> 
> Some seem to have forgotten ( that includes GSJB Were and all the other analysts and forecasters ) the other assets held by Felix Resources.
> 
> ...




These Felix holdings remain of interest despite little or no comment on them by the new Managing Director, Mr Brian Flannery - paticularly the gold royalties. It could be that his eyes are focused only on the profit making thermal coal mines.


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## noirua (21 August 2006)

Felix have moved up 10 cents to $2.80 and appear to have the legs to easily pass $3.00.


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## Sean K (21 August 2006)

Been watching and would be worried about jumping on at a peak. Had a great run last 2 months for holders then.


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## noirua (29 August 2006)

Annual Report for the year ending 30th June 2006. Profit is $30.1 million, and was hit by demurrage costs. The dividend is 4 cents, record date 15th October for payment 30th October:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060828/pdf/3y5vc4w3n30d1.pdf

NB: 64 page download.


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## michael_selway (29 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Annual Report for the year ending 30th June 2006. Profit is $30.1 million, and was hit by demurrage costs. The dividend is 4 cents, record date 15th October for payment 30th October:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060828/pdf/3y5vc4w3n30d1.pdf
> 
> NB: 64 page download.




Was it above ot below market consesus?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.1 11.3 22.1 24.7 
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.4 6.2 

thx

MS


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## noirua (29 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Was it above ot below market consesus?
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...




The MD of Felix did say, before the results, that profits would be around $30 million, so market consenses may not have come into it. 
The upside is well known, as far as Moolarben is concerned, and infact everything else stated yesterday. 
What was not mentioned is the likely partner for the Moolarben Project and the figure they would have to pay for an interest. The possibility of interest from Westfarmers has been in the wings for sometime now.


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## noirua (5 September 2006)

The chart shows the next position to test is at $3.00, after Felix have moved firmly through and held well above the important $2.50 level.


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## michael_selway (5 September 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> The chart shows the next position to test is at $3.00, after Felix have moved firmly through and held well above the important $2.50 level.




Improved forecasts, doesnt have 2009 yet, but fwd termianl PE of 10 mightbe around $10

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2008 
EPS 14.6 22.1 25.5 25.5 
DPS 4.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 

thx

MS


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## noirua (19 September 2006)

Felix Resources stand at $2.78 today and have risen about 80% from their 12 month low. 
Is there more to go for?
Possibly, as much depends on what partnerships are agreed on the all important Moolarben Project, as that will give a valuation for the whole open-cut and underground mine; Then whether further upgrades are made in the next 12 months. 
If everything comes to figures in line with the recent Ashton sale, then FLX can expect substantially more for the Moolarben interest than Ashton. 

Everything has fallen into place recently for FLX, and we should not forget how things fell apart before and the share price fell from just under $4.00 to just above $1.50.

NB. I hold a lot of shares in FLX.


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## michael_selway (19 September 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix Resources stand at $2.78 today and have risen about 80% from their 12 month low.
> Is there more to go for?
> Possibly, as much depends on what partnerships are agreed on the all important Moolarben Project, as that will give a valuation for the whole project; Then whether further upgrades are made in the next 12 months.
> If everything comes to figures in line with the recent Ashton sale, then FLX can expect substantially more for the Moolarben interest than Ashton.
> ...




Hi what do u think of EXL and the other coalers like MCC, CEY, GCL RSP etc?

thx

MS


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## noirua (19 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi what do u think of EXL and the other coalers like MCC, CEY, GCL RSP etc?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I'll try and post my views, for what they're worth, - probably not a lot - on the correct title thread. - Good Luck


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## noirua (22 September 2006)

A.G.M. and release of Annual Report:  http://news.iguana2.com/fatprophets/ASX/FLX/180838


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## noirua (26 September 2006)

Felix Overview and Outlook - Investors Presentation : http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060926/pdf/3ynphgkr8c3yr.pdf


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## noirua (30 September 2006)

It's very doubtfull that anyone will bid for Felix Resources as a whole. Any friendly bid would require agreement from the top four shareholders and therefore would prove too expensive; any hostile bid would go the same way.

Interest from outside is solely in the arena of the " Moolarben Project " in which Felix have a 100% interest in the proposed open-cut and underground mine.
Felix expressed the two-way alternative in their Annual Report and it seems they will go it alone if necessary. That though increases the risk, with the current expenditure on Minerva and Ashton exceeding $137 million, and the Moolarben ( plus HarryBrandt open-cut ) costs approaching this figure again.

The expected annual production from Moolarben will reach around 9 million tonnes in 2010 with production starting in 2008. 

A sale of an interest of around 30% of Moolarben should bring in a figure approaching $100 million, imho, and it is this factor that could push Felix Resources on strongly.
Bringing in this sum could advance the Athena Underground Project. 

Measured and indicated resources: Yarabbee ( 100% owned ) 25.2 million tonnes, open-cut;  Minerva ( 70% owned ) 59.3 million tonnes, open-cut;  Ashton ( 60% ) SE open-cut at 24.6 million tonnes, Ashton Underground at 67.4 million tonnes;  Moolarben open-cut 309.3 million tonnes, Moolarben underground 87.5 million tonnes;  Harrybrandt opent-cut 42.8 million tonnes " inferred resource ";  and Athena underground, 560 million tonnes " inferred resource ".

The total measured and indicated resource, attributable to Felix, is 524.4 million tonnes and total resources at 1,087.2 million tonnes.


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## noirua (4 October 2006)

Felix have moved on to $2.89 this morning as Moolarben financing looks to be the next announcement.


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## noirua (7 October 2006)

Felix have continued their gradual upward march all this week. Having hit $3.00 on Friday and closing at $2.98.


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## noirua (9 October 2006)

So much has been said about Felix Resource's mines and projects at Yarabbe, Minerva, Ashton and Moolarben.

One of Felix's best assets is the Athena Exploration Project, owned 55% by Felix and 45% by Soljitz.

The Athena tenement area covers 27,000 hectares and is a prospective underground development situated near the Minerva Mine.  It has similar or better coal and drilling of an 11 metre intersection contained a very high quality washed coal. The inferred resource is 560 million tonnes.

The Minerva Mine infrastructure is available to improve prospects for commercial exploration.


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## noirua (10 October 2006)

Felix Resources, Managing Director, Mr Brian Flannery in an audio interview with the Wallstreet Reporter: http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=20373&player=wma

Mr Flannery says " Moolarben Deposit, ( 100% owned by Felix Resources ) is the best in Australia and probably in the world " - mine is close to that of majors, Xstrata and Peabody in NSW.

The following link is a transcript of the interview: http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/profile.php?id=20373#transcript


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## noirua (13 October 2006)

Felix continue on up having reached $3.10 this morning. The interest over Moolarben, situated as it is close to Xstrata and Peabody mines, with 309 million tonnes of coal so far is likely to maintain interest.


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## noirua (13 October 2006)

Closed the week at $3.17 and now more than 100% up on the years low. Trading is quite light with buyers willing to take stock at ever higher prices.


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## michael_selway (14 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Closed the week at $3.17 and now more than 100% up on the years low. Trading is quite light with buyers willing to take stock at ever higher prices.




Waiting for 2009 forecasts. abut shoudl be around 0.32 per share

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2008 
EPS 14.6 23.8 28.1 28.1 
DPS 4.0 7.0 8.1 8.1 

thx

MS


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## noirua (17 October 2006)

Felix resources recovered to close at $3.10 on the Ausmelt memorandum of understanding concerning the Whyalla plant being used for Zinc. 

Felix have a 21.5% holding in ADC ( through their 90% holding in S.A.S.E.) and Ausmelt hold 78.5% ( Ausmelt have a  5% interest in S.A.S.E. ).  The plant referred to is S.A.S.E's former Pig Iron demonstration plant at Whyalla, and S.A.S.E. hold rights to the Ausiron(R) technology in South Australia. 

Felix have a 2.5% interest in Ausmelt and certain rights to increase their holding in ADC or shares in Ausmelt if ADC is not floated on the ASX. Ausmelt hold options over shares in Felix Resources. 

ADC own a 100% interest in the Whyalla plant.

Ausmelt BRR audio broadcast:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/AET/31/16294


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## noirua (18 October 2006)

Felix Resources were quoted at Euro 1.83 up .05 in trading today in Germany.

An interesting 5 year chart: http://www.newratings.com/companies/chart.asp?isin=MKM.BER&ts=60


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## noirua (18 October 2006)

Felix first quarterly report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061018/pdf/3z1psqgjpff5z.pdf


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## noirua (19 October 2006)

Felix Resources ownership of Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob iron ore tenements are sold.  Almost is probably a better word as the buyers " Southern Iron " are in a scrip for scrip merger with " Western Plains Gold ( WPG ) ", and it could yet fall through, though Felix appear certain it's all but cut and dried.

The company acting for Felix is its 90% owned subsiduary ( other holders are  Ausmelt and Krakatou Steel, who each own 5%  ) S.A.S.E. 

The result is that Felix get their hands on more much needed cash, $750,000 upfront and later $450,000, at todays price, in shares in Southern Iron.

There are undefined royalties to be held by Felix on productions levels, levels that is, in production from Peculiar Knob that they expect to reach 1 - 2 million tonnes per annum of high grade iron ore from 2008.

Felix also mention a consortium of 3 mysterious un-related holders in royalties over the Peculiar Knob tenement - thats a new one sprung on us, all very peculiar - and it seems they were made a generous offer for these royalties by Southern Iron and declined.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061019/pdf/3z28d6vn1c0p7.pdf


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## noirua (20 October 2006)

Felix's October Overview " Investor Roadshow Presentation". NOT NEW as it was out about 4 weeks ago.  http://www.felixresources.com.au/News_Docs/20060906_Roadshow_Oct.pdf


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## noirua (30 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix Resources ownership of Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob iron ore tenements are sold.  Almost is probably a better word as the buyers " Southern Iron " are in a scrip for scrip merger with " Western Plains Gold ( WPG ) ", and it could yet fall through, though Felix appear certain it's all but cut and dried.
> 
> The company acting for Felix is its 90% owned subsiduary ( other holders are  Ausmelt and Krakatou Steel, who each own 5%  ) S.A.S.E.
> 
> ...





Western Plains Gold ( WPG ) shareholders have approved their acquisition of Southern Iron.
This means that WPG's purchase of iron ore tenements at Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob from Felix Resources have gone through. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061027/pdf/3z7hy6dnzhqg4.pdf


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## noirua (1 November 2006)

Felix Resources closed at a 2006 high of $3.40 on Tuesday. The continued rise in the share price is thought to be associated with the "Moolarben Mine in NSW" and the "Queensland mine, Ashton Longwall ramp up, going to plan for 2007", reference the Minesite report on 19th Sept 2006. 

 Peabody and Xstrata have interests in the same area of FLX's Moolarben mine.


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## haemitite (1 November 2006)

Each day this stock seems to put on 2-4%.

 Very happy to have gotten in during the relatively recent fall to around the 1.60 mark.


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## noirua (6 November 2006)

haemitite said:
			
		

> Each day this stock seems to put on 2-4%.
> 
> Very happy to have gotten in during the relatively recent fall to around the 1.60 mark.




Felix are still going up today and traded at $3.61 this morning. No big buyers in the market, so far, as trading is light most days.


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## noirua (8 November 2006)

The light trading in Felix Resources has been something that has continued for some months now, having risen steadily throughout that time; There is a pause for thought as to the reasons why. Having fallen back from $3.55 to $3.37 yesterday, FLX finished down 1 cent at $3.54.


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## noirua (8 November 2006)

Sold about 15% of my holding in Felix as the run-up this year has been far more than I expected. A lot is on the Moolarben mine, 100% owned by FLX, that should come good with the mining sector bouyant.


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## noirua (10 November 2006)

Felix have moved up 13 cents today and stand at $3.73 in light trading - up 142% from their 2006 low. At this price the market cap. stands close to $700 million and makes the stocks entry into the ASX200 all the more certain.


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## noirua (13 November 2006)

Felix have risen sharply this morning, by 24 cents, to $3.95. An announcement is hoped for in reference to a partner for the Moolarben Project in NSW., close to Xstrata and Peabody mines. The stock now stands at an all-time high from the point of the merger with RSM in 2003 - up over 900% from the 2003 low.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (13 November 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix have risen sharply this morning, by 24 cents, to $3.95. An announcement is hoped for in reference to a partner for the Moolarben Project in NSW., close to Xstrata and Peabody mines. The stock now stands at an all-time high from the point of the merger with RSM in 2003 - up over 900% from the 2003 low.





Hi Noirua ! 
You've followed this share since 'magna carta' was drawn up .....I have watched MCC slide( with the ceo go absent on leave due to the CMC investigation) and FLX reverse this MCC decline .Do you feel still bullish even at $3.92 today ............trying to quantify if I should stick with MCC or jump on board the FLX freight train.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (13 November 2006)

*Trading halt * -looks like the train left me on the platform!


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## noirua (14 November 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> *Trading halt * -looks like the train left me on the platform!





I've been on this train since 1983. Bought and sold but always retaining some stock. I was going to sell some more stock at the start of trading on Tuesday, and only time will tell if I'm lucky or unlucky in failing to get off the train at the point you failed to get on it. 

Trading Halt is most likely to do with the sale of an interest in the companies Moolarben Project. Both Peabody and Xstrata have been mentioned as having an interest in buying into Moolarben, as they have other coal interests nearby in NSW. 

I have been watching MCC closely as I held the stock up to early last year. They used to trade at twice the price of FLX, cost factors involved here and maybe we should be watching where the train stops next; Whether we should jump on board or not is a personal decision.


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## noirua (14 November 2006)

ASX annoucement is about the Yarabbee Mine and Coal Resources have bought a 49% stake for A$68 million:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061114/pdf/3zkkx2jmjdbs7.pdf


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## noirua (14 November 2006)

Felix have fallen back to $3.63 after disappointment over the announcement that they are to sell 49% of Yarrabee for $68 million. This money to be used in developing Moolarben. 

It was about Moolarben that shareholders hoped was going to be the announcement. A 49% stake in this would have been worth $200 to $300 million ( IMHO ) and could have led to FLX being involved in a buy-back of its own stock and a cash return to shareholders.


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## GreatPig (14 November 2006)

Technically, pretty much on target from a Fib point of view.

I positioned the Fib lines based on the centre consolidation section a couple of weeks or so ago, and here we are now almost exactly on the 0% line.

Of course it could continue shooting up again tomorrow...

GP


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## noirua (14 November 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Technically, pretty much on target from a Fib point of view.
> 
> I positioned the Fib lines based on the centre consolidation section a couple of weeks or so ago, and here we are now almost exactly on the 0% line.
> 
> ...




Quite a lot of speculators in this stock now and if trading remains light it could trickle away South. On the other hand the Moolarben Project is the big one with potential to produce 6 times as much coal per annum than Yarrabee and the open-cut mine is a very low cost producer. Mine life at 10 mtpa is over 30 years and is 150% extra production for Felix on 2007 forecasts.


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## noirua (15 November 2006)

The valuation of assets owned by Felix Resources is reasonably easy to calculate. The number of shares in issue is 180.25 million and market cap at $3.60 is $649 million. 

1). The Yarabbee sale of 49% is worth the $68 million being paid to Felix and remainder owned by Felix is worth $70.7 million.

2) Ashton mine: 20% sold for $30.45 million and the remaining 60% is worth $91.45 million.

3) Minerva and Athena: 15% sold for $33 million and remainng 55% worth $121 million.

4) Owns 1 million shares in Ausmelt worth $1.05 million and 21.5% of ADC which is not valued.

5) Phillipson South Australia tenements sold and a valuation for 5 billion tonnes of steaming coal depends on a final agreement on cash and royalties. 

6) Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob iron ore tenements sold for $750,000 plus royalties. Expected to move quickly to 2 mtpa production. Felix also receive 10% equity in Southern Iron, valued at $450,000 after merger with Western Plains Gold.

7) Indonesian Gold Assets subject to future royalties to be paid to Felix.

8) Harry Brandt which is being developed. 

9) Ballymoney Lignite Tenement which has no value at present. 

10) Moolarben Mine that holds 309 million tonnes and is being developed and is 100% owned by Felix. The valuation MAY be in the region of $400 to $500 million.


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## noirua (15 November 2006)

I have now reduced my original holding in Felix Resources by 50% as the market trys to find a new level.  Shareholders seem to have been wrong footed by the sale of 49% of Yarrabee for $68 million, in other words it was completely unexpected.

Have stayed in FLX as I believe an announcement on a sale of part of the Moolarben Project will be agreed in time.


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## noirua (15 November 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> The valuation of assets owned by Felix Resources is reasonably easy to calculate. The number of shares in issue is 180.25 million and market cap at $3.60 is $649 million.
> 
> 1). The Yarabbee sale of 49% is worth the $68 million being paid to Felix and remainder owned by Felix is worth $70.7 million.
> 
> ...





Just to correct and add a few detail:

10) Moolarben Mine has 309.3 million tonnes measured and indicated resource in reference to the Open-Cut mine plus 87.5 million tonnes measured and indicated for the underground mine. The mine has an estimated 25 year life.  

8) Harry Brandt open-cut mine has a 42.8 million tonnes inferred resource.

1) Yarrabee has an estimated 6.5 year mine life at 30/6/2006.

Felix held $79,365,879 cash and cash equivalents at 30/6/2006.


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## noirua (16 November 2006)

Radio Interview with Mr Brian Flannery, MD of Felix Resources, concerning the Yarrabee Mine Joint Venture & AGM Highlights:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/17107


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## noirua (16 November 2006)

Just as a matter of interest, more a bit of fun, and taking into account posts 114 and 116; It is interesting to work out what type of bid for Felix Resources could be successful - of course there may really be no company interested at all.

Using my own workings: which may be wrong, innacurate or my own poor guesses, the assets and cash of Felix are worth between $900 and $1,100 million. At a stock price of $3.63, and allowing for options held by Directors, the market capitalization is $670 to $680 million. 

The value of Yarrabee, Minerva and Athena, and Ashton mines, are based on sale prices of parts of the assets, on the date of sale. Cash etc., is taken from the Annual Report of Felix Resources 2006, page 35, plus $68 million from sale of 49% of Yarrabee in early November, funds are yet to be received. Harry Brandt has a guessed value at $40 to $60 million. Moolarben has a guessed value of between $400 and $600 million. The other assets are given a nominal value of $20 million, which is a complete guess.


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## noirua (16 November 2006)

Felix Resources closed at $3.70 on the back of a further sale of 4% of Minerva and Athena, and announcement that FLX have no debt and sufficient funds to develop Moolarben:   
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061116/pdf/3zm4ry5f1v50y.pdf


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## noirua (17 November 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Just as a matter of interest, more a bit of fun, and taking into account posts 114 and 116; It is interesting to work out what type of bid for Felix Resources could be successful - of course there may really be no company interested at all.
> 
> Using my own workings: which may be wrong, innacurate or my own poor guesses, the assets and cash of Felix are worth between $900 and $1,100 million. At a stock price of $3.63, and allowing for options held by Directors, the market capitalization is $670 to $680 million.
> 
> The value of Yarrabee, Minerva and Athena, and Ashton mines, are based on sale prices of parts of the assets, on the date of sale. Cash etc., is taken from the Annual Report of Felix Resources 2006, page 35, plus $68 million from sale of 49% of Yarrabee in early November, funds are yet to be received. Harry Brandt has a guessed value at $40 to $60 million. Moolarben has a guessed value of between $400 and $600 million. The other assets are given a nominal value of $20 million, which is a complete guess.




The following analysts report by Wilson HTM, now about 4 month old, gives the asset value of Felix Resources at $1,292.6 million, with the value of Moolarben close to $800 million, as of year ending 30/6/2006. See page 6 of the report:  http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060724_Wilson_HTM_report.pdf


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## noirua (21 November 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix Resources, Managing Director, Mr Brian Flannery in an audio interview with the Wallstreet Reporter: http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=20373&player=wma
> 
> Mr Flannery says " Moolarben Deposit, ( 100% owned by Felix Resources ) is the best in Australia and probably in the world " - mine is close to that of majors, Xstrata and Peabody in NSW.
> 
> The following link is a transcript of the interview: http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/profile.php?id=20373#transcript




It may be worth looking back at this interview in late September. Since then Felix have reduced their holding in Yarrabee to 51% and their interest in Minerva and Athena to 51% and retain a 60% interest in Ashton.

Ashton coal is semi -soft coking coal and production at the open-cut mine is 1.6mtpa and from March 2007 will add a further 2.4mtpa. 

Felix interest coal production will rise to over 4mtpa for year 2007, rising to 10mtpa in 2010.

After sale of parts of Ashton, Minerva, Athena and Yarrabee, Felix have sufficient funds to develop the Moolarben open-cut and underground mine.


----------



## noirua (22 November 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> It may be worth looking back at this interview in late September. Since then Felix have reduced their holding in Yarrabee to 51% and their interest in Minerva and Athena to 51% and retain a 60% interest in Ashton.
> 
> Ashton coal is semi -soft coking coal and production at the open-cut mine is 1.6mtpa and from March 2007 will add a further 2.4mtpa.
> 
> ...





Semi-soft ( Metalurgical coal ) coal prices are holding up well in the United States at US$90.98 per ton, as at 1st November 06. The following link gives a chart of these prices that shows the strength in metalurgical coal prices. This follows the upbeat forecasts by Felix MD., Mr Brian Flannery for both the Ashton Mine production and metallurgical coal prices here on in. 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/coal/newsmarket/coalmar061029.html


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## noirua (22 November 2006)

Felix are recovering towards their $4.00 years high of $4.00 - closed at $3.85 up 5 cents. 

Enough said about the sem-soft coking coal at the Ashton mine as we can work out our own figures on projected value, providing prices hold up. 

Moolarben is now the future mine for Felix and by selling off 49% of Yarrabee, 49% of Minerva to finance it. A greater part of the future is on this one big time. 
4 million tonnes per annum come in during 2008 at the open-cut mine. Costs are at around A$30 per tonne at this part of the mine.


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## noirua (25 November 2006)

The latest analysts report is eagerly awaited, now much delayed on FLX. I suppose much has happened in sales of parts of all of the mines except Moolarben and Harry Brandt.

Yarrabee reduced to a 51% holding, Minerva to 51% and Ashton to 60%. Phillipson under option to be sold and Hawks Nest sold. As said, only Moolarben and Harry Brandt remain clean at 100%. 

The last analysts report gave an asset value close to A$1.2 billion and hopes are that this figure will be raised.

Felix trade on a 40% discount to the asset valuation of July 2006.


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## noirua (27 November 2006)

Felix Resources are moving up today in light trading and are close to the years high of $4.00. Together with GLC they remain one of the most improved stocks in the coal sector. 

Added interest is in the Phillipson Coal Fields where NRG Flinders Power Partnership have options to purchase or pay royalties on coal production. The tenement holds 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal and the Adelaide to Darwin Railways runs through it. The Ingomar Trial Pit is the main point of interest at present.
The 3 year trial period ends in May 2007 and Flinders is expected to make an announcement soon.


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## noirua (29 November 2006)

This very light trading can be put down to so much stock being tightly held. Still, that leaves about 90 million shares to be traded each day. It is therefore difficult to trust the stock price, that can move 5% in either direction on very small trades indeed.


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## Reefer (29 November 2006)

Felix have 180 million odd issued shares and 82% are held by the top 20 shareholders mainly by the White Mining interests/directors.  Only 28% or 50 million available for regular trading, and I suspect the actual tradeable figure is less than that.
They have always been a tightly held stock and when as Aurion they ran up to $13.50 it was on tight volumes and I think in one year they did a 300% plus rise to achieve that level.  Came down just as quickly though once the Whyalla smelter blew up, again on tight volumes - they have always been a pretty volatile stock but at least they now have some substance to them with the operating coal mines among their assets.
With the directors holding 70% of the stock they will only ever be able to fund their expansion by selling off part of the farm, as with Yarrabee/Minerva, because the contribution required from the directors in any equity issue would be too massive.
Just my thoughts!


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## noirua (30 November 2006)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Felix have 180 million odd issued shares and 82% are held by the top 20 shareholders mainly by the White Mining interests/directors.  Only 28% or 50 million available for regular trading, and I suspect the actual tradeable figure is less than that.
> They have always been a tightly held stock and when as Aurion they ran up to $13.50 it was on tight volumes and I think in one year they did a 300% plus rise to achieve that level.  Came down just as quickly though once the Whyalla smelter blew up, again on tight volumes - they have always been a pretty volatile stock but at least they now have some substance to them with the operating coal mines among their assets.
> With the directors holding 70% of the stock they will only ever be able to fund their expansion by selling off part of the farm, as with Yarrabee/Minerva, because the contribution required from the directors in any equity issue would be too massive.
> Just my thoughts!





I take your point, but FLX are well cashed up and many of the top 20 shareholders are Investment Banks that hold shares on behalf of small shareholders like us, as nominees.


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## haemitite (30 November 2006)

Its not meaningful to compare FLX of today to the entity it was.


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## noirua (2 December 2006)

Felix have closed the week at over four dollars at $4.05. This is quite significant, as it has been taken as a marker after the run up before the last announcement that was not the one hoped for. ( Yarrabee sale not Moolarben )
Moolarben has been valued alone at more than the present market cap.


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## noirua (5 December 2006)

Well there you goes: FLX took a tumble the last few days and I was tempted to unload some more stock. Some how Felix have become a growth stock, moving up from the ASX 400 to ASX300 and looking to enter the ASX200 at the next roll call. 
More to go for, me thinks, and that $4.50 mark, mentioned in the companies past reports, is only a short distance away and only a small fence to jump. $13.50 is the Auiron/Felix days all-time high, and a long way off at present.
A Moolarben Joint Venture announcement is possible and that rather than a takeover bid may happen soon.


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## Reefer (5 December 2006)

Not sure if they will need to sell off part of Moolarben - the last Wilson HTM report intimated a joint venture of Moolarben but since that report Felix have sold off 49% of Yarrabee and from memory that will be supplying the sort of funds that Wilson HTM were looking for in regard to the Moolarben development.  So Felix may have done pretty well if they can go forward owning 100% of Moolarben, probably trading off some short term profits for some glory further out.  Looking forward to the next Wilson HTM report, their last one in July was looking at a 12 month price target of $3.00 so it will be interesting to see how they rate the asset sales and the future prospects. Could be time to buy some more if the price slips back a bit further.  In 18 months or so I can't see them trading down at these levels.


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## noirua (7 December 2006)

Quite a move back to $4.04 after a low in recent days of $3.78, encouraging. 

Felix may not need cash, but may be tempted by an offer for an interest in Moolarben. The $68 million they received for a 49% interest in Yarrabee  looks very good, with a life of 6.5 years remaining; sure they will get some more years with further exploration.

Moolarben has been given a value of nearly $800 million and with interest as it is, this could add $400 million to Felix's coffers for 49%. This would equates to $2.10 a share and put a value on Moolarben at $4.20 and that is higher than the present price of FLX.


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## noirua (7 December 2006)

This, the most recent announcement by Felix, is about the Ultra Clean Coal ( UCC ) which is an important development by Felix Resources at Harry Brandt. This partnership with Kores adds even further to the solid expansion by Felix Resources of all of its assets:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061207/pdf/31000yz6zcbs0n.pdf


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## noirua (7 December 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> This, the most recent announcement by Felix, is about the Ultra Clean Coal ( UCC ) which is an important development by Felix Resources at Harry Brandt. This partnership with Kores adds even further to the solid expansion by Felix Resources of all of its assets:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061207/pdf/31000yz6zcbs0n.pdf





What further announcements can we expect, as Felix at $4.05 trades about 40% below asset value. 

Yarabbee: further exploration is expected to increase reserves and the life of the mine. Felix are about to start an exploration programme with their new european partner. 

Minerva and Athena: FLX have sold 49% of the mines and exporation continues at Athena to increase the status of the reserves. 

Ashton: Felix now have a 60% holding in the open-cut and longwall mine. The prospects have improved greatly with the new partners and everything is ontime and according to plan. 

Moolarben: The jewel in the crown of Felix Resources that is valued at close to $800 million and some hope for a partnership to release up to $400 million in cash. Further exploration may well continue to increase the reserves. 

Phillipson: 5 billion tonnes of steaming coal in S.A. Flinders will be announcing whether they will take-up their option to purchase the reserves outright by March 2007. 

Iron Ore tenements at Hawks Nest... have been sold and owners are now WPG. FLX retain royalties on the expected production at 2mtpa from early 2008.


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## noirua (15 December 2006)

The FLX share price continues to move about in very light trading.  Having fallen sharply to $3.86 and bounced back to $4.01 a few minutes ago. The shares have come up sharply from near $1.50 earlier this year and is it a case of running out of steam or holders doing just that, holding.


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## Reefer (15 December 2006)

There is a bit of selling pressure around but it does not usually last for long.
Most days the shares are easy early in trading bur recover by the close.  The only reason I would contemplate selling any of my holding would be to cash up to buy in again at a lower level.  But I'm more nervous about selling and not seeing a further fall than I am about holding. Despite the rise from $1.50 in July I think they are still showing good strength and I think a few investors are getting set for Moolarben.  The Rising Tide environmental site gives Moolarben a back-handed tick at http://risingtide.org.au/resources by stating what a huge development it is compared with other developments in NSW, albeit from the perspective of carbon emmissions.  I think the shares will see a good return over the next couple of years though we are bound to have a few corrections over the journey.


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## noirua (18 December 2006)

Reefer said:
			
		

> There is a bit of selling pressure around but it does not usually last for long.
> Most days the shares are easy early in trading bur recover by the close.  The only reason I would contemplate selling any of my holding would be to cash up to buy in again at a lower level.  But I'm more nervous about selling and not seeing a further fall than I am about holding. Despite the rise from $1.50 in July I think they are still showing good strength and I think a few investors are getting set for Moolarben.  The Rising Tide environmental site gives Moolarben a back-handed tick at http://risingtide.org.au/resources by stating what a huge development it is compared with other developments in NSW, albeit from the perspective of carbon emmissions.  I think the shares will see a good return over the next couple of years though we are bound to have a few corrections over the journey.




Yes, and we await the next analysts review that should be out this month. As you say, Moolarben is what we are all setting our eyes on. Personally I know of no rumours about bids and many, I do know, are hoping for a move by Peabody or Xstrata who have tenements on each side of Felix Resources in NSW. 

Definitely an interesting hold for 2007 and I appreciate your views on how the stock could move. Good Luck.


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## Reefer (18 December 2006)

Interesting that the last of the 1 cent options got converted today.  The only options left from the 2005 Annual Report are 7,500,000 with an exercise price of 85 cents each and 70,000 which are not easily traceable.  The White Mining interests seem to have converted all those related to the purchase of their mines.  Don't know of what significance it is but the directors certainly seem to be in for the long haul.


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## noirua (20 December 2006)

An increase in trading this morning, at last, as Felix move on 13 cents at $4.11.  Analysts report is due to be published.


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## haemitite (20 December 2006)

which analyst?

will you have a copy of the report?


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## noirua (20 December 2006)

Finished trading at $4.16 up 18 cents and trading of 610,557 shares shows the increasing interest. 

Hopefully, more good news on the horizon from Moolarben and Athena on further exploration, and the Hawks Nest/Peculiar Knob sale with royalties looks to be going well with WPG. Phillipson announcement is due by Mar 2007 and hopefully a final sale agreement with royalties will be announced. 

Half Year ends on 31st December. Any analysts report will be shown on the Felix website.


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## noirua (21 December 2006)

Felix Resources continue to a 2006 high of $4.25, up 9 cents, this morning. The equivalent 2003 low point was 38 cents, although the stock has a long way to go to achieve the equivalent 2001 high of $13.50 or 1982 high of $65.50.

No rumours of an announcement due, and we can only guess at the reasons for the sudden rise in FLX.


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## Reefer (21 December 2006)

Not always an indication of where a stock is going but the buyers are starting to gather in the $4.20 plus range, while the sellers are getting chewed.  Must be a decent report coming out from Wilsons or Xstrata are making a move on Moolarben. Anyone's guess!!


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## noirua (21 December 2006)

There are still a lot of FLX stock holders in the UK, Northern Ireland, Germany and the USA, that goes back to the Auiron Energy days. Some UK Institutions still hold quite a bit of stock and appear to be sitting on it, perhaps why the tightness is so pronounced in FLX trading. 

Expectations of a bid run very high in the UK, but anyones guess really. If it comes it will need to be a friendly bid and the last analysts NPV ( Wilson HTM on 24/7/2006) was $5.83 for FLX and this may now be a much higher figure. Why higher, because the report indicated, if the Moolarben Mine was fully financed without selling any interest, it would raise the NPV considerably.  

$4.50 is quite an important price in the minds of many, also mentioned by FLX directors in the 2004 report,  who saw this coming but not for a while yet.


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## Reefer (21 December 2006)

Interesting spread between buyer and seller with little stock available, but they are going very strongly ATM.  I suspect the latest Wilson analysis is available in-house to their clients and they are getting set accordingly.  Think there is somewhat of a delay before the report appears on the Felix site.  The only holding I have that is going well today!!!


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## x2rider (21 December 2006)

I know this must be closely held but where have all the sellers gone ?


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## noirua (22 December 2006)

x2rider said:
			
		

> I know this must be closely held but where have all the sellers gone ?




Some holders in the UK and particularly the USA have more difficulty selling these days. Still, a price of $4.38, close to the days high of $4.40 is a good performance - 412,499 shares traded in the day and 189 million in issue, is no big deal. What now?


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## noirua (22 December 2006)

There seems to be a buyer in the market for FLX stock and it will be interesting to see if they have a limit, so far it is uncertain. Started trading at $4.30, down 8 cents, but recovered to $4.36.


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## Reefer (22 December 2006)

I still reckon this is a very tightly held stock - good when they are going up and feral when they are going down. I've been in since the Meekatharra days and although as Auiron they had a large share issue just before Whyalla went pear shaped, they shortly thereafter did a 1 for 10 consolidation which effectively removed all the new issue stock in one foul swoop.  Since then the only issue of any magnitude was to acquire White Mining ( I think they had the cash for Yarrabee).  My point is they are still as tightly held now as they were pre the Auiron issue and in that year Auiron experienced the largest one year gain of all stocks on the ASX (close to 400%).  That rapid increase was areflection of limited stock in the market.  I think the same thing is happening now - holders with saleable stock are holding because of Moolarben, or perhaps like me they bought in at much higher levels and are holding out to see a gain over time - this may especially be the case with the UK shareholders who have probably all bought in around $9 effective price.


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## noirua (22 December 2006)

Very fair comment Reefer. I think the downward spiral of Auiron was the sale of shares by Ausmelt and hefty dumping by the UK's Equitable Life, who were in trouble. Financing of the original 5-module pig iron smelter was going to cost around A$1.2 billion and the belated 1-module option around A$250 million and as market cap fell it really wasn't on. The SA Gov were due to put A$50 million into the development, as WA did for the Hismelt Smelter,  but wavered in the end. 
Neill Arthur should really have been supported as Steel prices and Pig Iron prices rose rapidly. Even more than Neill had predicted. By now, all modules would have been up and running for 2 years at a production rate of 2.5mtpa of pig iron. 

Anyway, that counts for nothing now.


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## noirua (22 December 2006)

Trading is very wild today, having moved between $4.40 and $4.01 and now at $4.20.


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## porkpie324 (22 December 2006)

Yes probably buyers keep pulling their orders,  but I managed to pick a few up this morning.  porkpie


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## noirua (22 December 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Yes probably buyers keep pulling their orders,  but I managed to pick a few up this morning.  porkpie



That was a brave purchase. Quite a surprising and worrying wobble.


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## porkpie324 (22 December 2006)

You may well be right, thats 2 lots I have picked up this week some today some yesterday, not to many  bought though using CFDs so wil have to pay some interest, I do feel FLX is a good sound co so worth the risk. Time will tell after the break if I made the correct decision, nothing ventured nothing gained. porkpie


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## michael_selway (23 December 2006)

The forecast numbers have always been good & increasing with this stock, but can it meet them? Last year they missed it by 50% I think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 14.6 18.1 25.2 43.2 
DPS 4.0 5.2 6.0 12.9 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 18.1 22.7 23.5% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 25.2 16.3 39.2% 

Thx

MS


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## noirua (27 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> The forecast numbers have always been good & increasing with this stock, but can it meet them? Last year they missed it by 50% I think
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...





Ahhh, I gather thou are not onboard FLX?  Anyway, I can't find any COMPANY forecasts for FLX profits for 2007, that is since Brian Flannery became MD. 
I believe your information may be as old as 16 ounces in the Pound, I jest of course, or maybe an analyst in the past is too blame. 

This is a high level for Felix, granted, but this price sees the full funding and 100% ownership of Moolarben: Positioned as it is in NSW.,  in the middle of tenements owned by Peabody and Xstrata, there is some speculation of a bid to purchase Moolarben or FLX themselves.


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## Reefer (27 December 2006)

The "wobbles" of pre Xmas seem to have disappeared. Looking pretty strong in the morning session with light trade pushing them up to $4.35.


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## Reefer (28 December 2006)

Just hunting around the net before I start the day's work and came across an interesting blog from a Canadian investor who has been putting some work into coal stocks. It's 12 months old before Felix took off but he puts a case for fair value of $10 - hope he's on the mark.  It's an interesting read and probably still relevant.  http://longterm.blogspot.com/2005/12/felix-resources-case-for-coal.html


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## michael_selway (28 December 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Ahhh, I gather thou are not onboard FLX?  Anyway, I can't find any COMPANY forecasts for FLX profits for 2007, that is since Brian Flannery became MD.
> I believe your information may be as old as 16 ounces in the Pound, I jest of course, or maybe an analyst in the past is too blame.
> 
> This is a high level for Felix, granted, but this price sees the full funding and 100% ownership of Moolarben: Positioned as it is in NSW.,  in the middle of tenements owned by Peabody and Xstrata, there is some speculation of a bid to purchase Moolarben or FLX themselves.




Those forecasts are less than a week old

thx

MS


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## noirua (28 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Those forecasts are less than a week old
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Felix Resources Half Yearly Results are due in January 2007 and hopefully we will have updated forecasts then. You say yours are LESS than one week old?

Felix are at A$4.29 this morning in very light unconvincing trading.


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## michael_selway (28 December 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix Resources Half Yearly Results are due in January 2007 and hopefully we will have updated forecasts then. You say yours are LESS than one week old?
> 
> Felix are at A$4.29 this morning in very light unconvincing trading.




Yes Comsec, tells you when the forecasts were last updated

thx

MS


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## noirua (29 December 2006)

Felix Resources ( FLRFF:OTO ) traded this afternoon under the no longer listed/defunct trade, pink sheets, over the counter market at US$3.32 ( Aus$4.24 converted at 1.277Aus to US ).
Details:  http://www.sec.gov/answers/dfnctco.htm


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## Reefer (29 December 2006)

Any idea what that means Noirua?


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## noirua (3 January 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Any idea what that means Noirua?





Felix are slipping away at $4.15 today after going as low as $4.11. Market looks very nervous at the moment.

On the USA quote: I was told on an American forum that stocks that go bust or foreign stocks that cancel their listing on Nasdaq, the latter being Felix, allow American holders to sell their stock on the US Pink Sheets market as brokers in the States wont deal such stocks in any other way.


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## porkpie324 (3 January 2007)

Yes FLX have slipped this morning but not many for sale,  I managed to pick up a few though. porkpie


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## noirua (5 January 2007)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Yes FLX have slipped this morning but not many for sale,  I managed to pick up a few though. porkpie




FLX are trading at $4.24, quite steady in this quite nervous mining sector. As you say Porkpie, " not many for sale ", and you'r also one of the few buyers. 

We seem to be on some sort of plateau, and could be here for a while yet.

Half Yearly results should be out in a short while.


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## noirua (5 January 2007)

Felix are holding their ground well in light trading at $4.28, up 4 cents, and may move on to test the $4.40 high with the Half Yearly Results coming up in the next few weeks.


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## porkpie324 (7 January 2007)

What prompted me to accumulate last week is I think that FLX have reached a  plateau but on light volume, FLX rose on well above average volume on 20,21 & 22 Dec and only got sold off at the close on a few sales. I put a limit CFD order in on that day which was filled near the close. FLX closed last Friday just off the high so I'm already in the money and looking at more gain next week.
A few others have questioned my buying FLX of late but so far they have been an excellent trader. porkpie


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## noirua (8 January 2007)

What ever Felix's new cash mountain says and the cheap up and coming producer at Moolarben, it's the price of coal going forward that matters.

The following three articles cover most of what we need to know to date:


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20984232-5005200,00.htm

http://www.platts.com/Magazines/Insight/2006/december/2LU00612G0Nv7125Q8J58e_1.xml

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/sector/coal/?show=89470


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## noirua (9 January 2007)

Felix Resources Half Yearly results are due at the end of the month and they are expected to announce the very first interim dividend since formation in 1978, when they were floated at 25c NPV.

Everything is expected to have gone well in this first half with buckets full of cash having flooded in from percentage sales of mining and tenement assets. Interest alone will have covered the office running costs and sales may be in the region of 2.2 million tonnes of thermal, P.C.I. and semi soft coking coal, related to FLX. Profits in the first half alone should exceed the full years profit for Y.E. 30/6/06.


Wilson HTM forecast EBITDA for the full year ending 2007 at $88.3 million and ending 2008 at $117 million. 
Profits from this, in the first half, excluding asset sales, should exceed $40 million, imho.


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## noirua (10 January 2007)

Felix Resources ( FLX ) produces, semi-soft coking coal, PCI coal and thermal coal from medium to high grade. The report below is good news for FLX as it looks as if agreed prices after March 31st 2007 will be agreed at higher prices than expected.

A downside is that the second half, ending 2006, costs for demurrage were at $5 million, and may not be improved on for the first half of Year Ending 2007.

Costs for fuel have been reducing during this last half year which should be a great help in the second half of 2007.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/items/200701/1820706.htm?newcastle


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## Reefer (11 January 2007)

Noirua, 
Bit worried after reading your reports on the continuing demurrage problems at Newcastle and the subsequent 21c drop in Felix SP, that the half yearlys may be at the printers and bad news was out in the "public" domain.  But the SP appears to be recovering a bit now, and perhaps it was just some stop losses being triggered by the initial fall of 5c or so.  Got over my panic, bought some more under $4, and should be OK based on the scenario for coal prices, and the blue sky that is Moolarben.
By the way are you Neill Arthur's love child - you seem to give him pretty good wraps on this and the UXA postings. I was a bit disappointed when he jumped ship after the smelter debacle, but he certainly did plenty for "Felix" up to that date.


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## noirua (11 January 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Noirua,
> Bit worried after reading your reports on the continuing demurrage problems at Newcastle and the subsequent 21c drop in Felix SP, that the half yearlys may be at the printers and bad news was out in the "public" domain.  But the SP appears to be recovering a bit now, and perhaps it was just some stop losses being triggered by the initial fall of 5c or so.  Got over my panic, bought some more under $4, and should be OK based on the scenario for coal prices, and the blue sky that is Moolarben.
> By the way are you Neill Arthur's love child - you seem to give him pretty good wraps on this and the UXA postings. I was a bit disappointed when he jumped ship after the smelter debacle, but he certainly did plenty for "Felix" up to that date.




Hi, I get your point about Neill Arthur and my only response is that I'm a bit older than him. He was infact forced to resign shortly after the Demonstration Plant caught fire and a majority of Directors decided not to go ahead with the one of the five module smelters near Whyalla. 
The subsequent rise in Pig Iron prices, shows there was much said by Neill Arthur that was correct in his 2002 forecasts. Still, that is all done and dusted now and I  guess that he has no further interest in it. 
You can still pick up information via the ASX website.

There is a lot of negative news out there on mining stocks, so it's a time to be careful. The brave quite often hit the jackpot however - good luck with your buying.


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## Reefer (11 January 2007)

Hey Noirua
Do you happen to live in inner suburbs Melbourne? Your posts on Neill Arthur, Ausmelt and Felix remind me of someone I crossed paths with a few years ago in the heady days of Meekatharra.


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## noirua (11 January 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Hey Noirua
> Do you happen to live in inner suburbs Melbourne? Your posts on Neill Arthur, Ausmelt and Felix remind me of someone I crossed paths with a few years ago in the heady days of Meekatharra.




 Your quite a long way out as I'm not in Australia. That may change in the not too distant future. Never lived in Melbourne. Never spoken to Neill Arthur except to put a question at meetings in 1999 and 2000. 

Take care with your buying of risky stocks in these markets, keep plenty of cash, imho.


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## noirua (15 January 2007)

Up four cents this morning in quite light unconvincing trading at $4.02, about 10% off the recent high. 

Half yearly report was out last year on 31st January, so I expect the nervousness to continue for a while.

Difficult to say how the shares will react to the half yearly report; The results of which will be outstanding on the cash from sales front, as well as coal sales. Moolarben is where all eyes are feasted as results of a go ahead are awaited from the NSW State Government.


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## porkpie324 (15 January 2007)

Its tricky with FLX at the moment, so I reduced my open positions last Friday took a small loss but better than a  possible big loss. porkpie


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## noirua (15 January 2007)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Its tricky with FLX at the moment, so I reduced my open positions last Friday took a small loss but better than a  possible big loss. porkpie




Hi, Interesting move and there is no way of knowing if your right or wrong as yet. Half yearly result to come and the Moolarben factor could take FLX either way - High Risk sector, so, if your nervous best to get out.


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## noirua (15 January 2007)

Felix recovered to $4.10 yesterday in usual light trading. The stock fell with the mining fall around new year and it will be interesting to see if it gets back ontrack; That is, continue the upward march from $1.54 that was started in June 06.

An announcement of a go ahead on Moolarben and Harry Brandt would be bullish for FLX. If there is no announcement ( this could hold up Moolarben ) and the Half Yearly is anything less than the market expects ( market may be looking for $40 million EBITDA at half way and an interim dividend of around 4 cents ) the shares may reverse.


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## noirua (16 January 2007)

Felix Resources still retain a royalty interest on iron ore production at Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob Tenements in South Australia, through their 90% owned subsiduary S.A.S.E. The Tenements are owned by Western Plains Resources and their Exec Chairman reports as follows:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/WPG/160/18128


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## noirua (18 January 2007)

Major Shareholders in Felix Resources, as at January 2007: Resource Mng & Mining, 15.96%; Gaffwick PTY, 15.87%; Ilwelia PTY, 15.61%; Fibora, 7.71%; Greenworth, 5.14%; Leopold Station, 5.14%; and a main shareholder, Covelane PTY, 2.26%.

This makes the holdings' = 67.69%


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## porkpie324 (18 January 2007)

FLX continues to look toppy, support seems to be around 3.90 with plenty of sellors, all the publicity with Newcastle port seems to weighing them down. So with that I closed my last position taking another loss. porkpie


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## noirua (18 January 2007)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> FLX continues to look toppy, support seems to be around 3.90 with plenty of sellors, all the publicity with Newcastle port seems to weighing them down. So with that I closed my last position taking another loss. porkpie




There is a big problem at Newcastle Port that even RIO have been defeated by. However, much of Felix's coal, Minerva and Yarrabee, is shipped from Gladsone Port, Queensland, and it is only coal from the Ashton Open-Cut mine that will be shipped out from Newcastle - ...and Ashton Longwall later in 2007. It will be 2008 before Moolarben starts shipping coal and the expansion should be completed around that time - Felix have a partnership/involvement in the expansion; will have to check the details, might be wrong on this.

There is a plus, and that is that coal prices are holding up well, because of congestion at Newcastle Port.


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## porkpie324 (18 January 2007)

Thanks for that Noirua, there seems to be some late support coming thru at 4.04-4.06, but still persistant resistance at 4.08-4.15. porkpie


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## Reefer (18 January 2007)

Looking through the director's interest notices, Gaffwick is Duncan, RMM is Rawlins, and Ilwella is Flannery - so those three directors hold at least 47.44% of the company - not sure about the other substantial holders you mention, they may also be associated.  So this is why Felix is fairly tightly held and can move significantly either way on relatively small volumes.  On past experience it can be a difficult company to get in and out of because the volumes can be small.  I feel they have strengthened up considerably in late trading today and I certainly won't be exiting before the half yearlys come out - just need to ride the peaks and troughs and hope we come out the other side OK.


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## haemitite (18 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> There is a big problem at Newcastle Port that even RIO have been defeated by. However, much of Felix's coal, Minerva and Yarrabee, is shipped from Gladsone Port, Queensland, and it is only coal from the Ashton Open-Cut mine that will be shipped out from Newcastle - ...and Ashton Longwall later in 2007. It will be 2008 before Moolarben starts shipping coal and the expansion should be completed around that time - Felix have a partnership/involvement in the expansion; will have to check the details, might be wrong on this.
> 
> There is a plus, and that is that coal prices are holding up well, because of congestion at Newcastle Port.



Its a strange thing as Rio run Newcastle Port with Xstrata as part of Port Warratah Ciak Services

Felix do have a share of the proposed new port.


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## noirua (20 January 2007)

Felix Resources, Half Yearly Report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070119/pdf/310kwvysm4rc4x.pdf

Felix closed up 6 cents at $4.14.

Main plus, is that Moolarben resources update increases u/ground coal reserves from 198 mt to 226 mt and open cut from 309 mt to 348 mt, these  figures are measured and indicated. 

Felix still await a go ahead for Moolarben, which is 100% owned, from the NSW State Government. 

There is a delay for bringing on the Minerva mine to full production of 2.5 mtpa.

Demurrage costs at the Newcastle port continue to be a negative factor.

The Ashton Longwall Mine development continues on schedule.

The Harry Brandt mine, ultra clean coal, is looking good with strong Chinese interest.

Felix Resources are very confident about an increase in thermal coal prices, in the next round of contracted coal increases, and 2008 profits should see a significant increase. This is due to old lower contract pricing coming to an end.

There was no mention of the Northern Ireland, Ballymoney, Lignite Reserves; A.D.C., 21.5% interest with Ausmelt; Phillipson coal reserves sale or otherwise to Flinders; and Gold Royalties.


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## noirua (21 January 2007)

At $4.14, Felix Resources are capitalised at about $780 million. In the last analysts review in July 2006, they valued Moolarben at just under $800 million; Reserves have since been increased by 12% on open-cut and 14% on underground, measured and indicated figures, and this would now equate to about $900 million.
Other holdings have changed a bit, with the sale of 49% of Yarrabee and a further 4% of Minerva and Athena. These sales will help, fully finance the Moolarben Project.
The estimated asset value of Felix Resources may now be in the region of $1.4 Billion Dollars.


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## michael_selway (21 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> At $4.14, Felix Resources are capitalised at about $780 million. In the last analysts review in July 2006, they valued Moolarben at just under $800 million; Reserves have since been increased by 12% on open-cut and 14% on underground, measured and indicated figures, and this would now equate to about $900 million.
> Other holdings have changed a bit, with the sale of 49% of Yarrabee and a further 4% of Minerva and Athena. These sales will help, fully finance the Moolarben Project.
> The estimated asset value of Felix Resources may now be in the region of $1.4 Billion Dollars.




hi what do u think of CEY?

thx

MS


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## Reefer (21 January 2007)

The Melbourne brokers who post recommendations in the Sunday Sun have posted 3 or 4 strong sells over the last few months since CEY announced the sell off of some of their non performing mines. They are also worried about debt levels.  Having said that I am still holding because I reckon the crash in share price was overdone, given that their longwall problems had been factored into the price many months prior to the asset sell off announcement. Can only be a good thing to sell the mines that are dragging the group result down.  Think the downside at current $2.80 must be non existent, the problem will be how long we have to hold to see the price improve significantly.


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## Reefer (21 January 2007)

Will be interested to see what the half yearlys show on February 27th when they are released. Wison HTM in their last report estimated Dec06 half year sales at $144.3mill and they came in at $124 mill (both sets of figures account for the reduced equity in Minerva).  Sounds like demurrage will still be a "significant" expense so who knows waht the net profit may be.  Should be at least $20mill but hopefully more towards $30m if the increase in sales flows thru to the bottom line at greater margins.


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## michael_selway (22 January 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> The Melbourne brokers who post recommendations in the Sunday Sun have posted 3 or 4 strong sells over the last few months since CEY announced the sell off of some of their non performing mines. They are also worried about debt levels.  Having said that I am still holding because I reckon the crash in share price was overdone, given that their longwall problems had been factored into the price many months prior to the asset sell off announcement. Can only be a good thing to sell the mines that are dragging the group result down.  Think the downside at current $2.80 must be non existent, the problem will be how long we have to hold to see the price improve significantly.




do you reckon its a good buy at current prices?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 17.5 16.8 25.4 34.6 
DPS 13.0 13.0 12.0 13.0 * 

thx

MS


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## noirua (22 January 2007)

Felix Resources (FLX) are moving on again today, up 11 cents at $4.25, following release of the Half Yearly Results.

The bullish tone by Mr Brian Flannery, MD, in the BRR broadcast, seems to be causing a pick up in trading. Interesting to see if the $4.40 high can be broken:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/18281


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## noirua (22 January 2007)

Felix have now equalled their high of $4.40 in double quick time today.

There are rumours around of a possible bid coming for Felix Resources. There is no concrete evidence of this at the moment, as trading remains quite normal, albeit well above the light trading of the last 3 months.


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## noirua (23 January 2007)

Felix continue on their upward march today, having risen 10 cents to a high of $4.48 - 190% up on their 12 month low. This follows the Half Yearly results and speculation over Moolarben.


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## Reefer (23 January 2007)

Up 19c now Noirua - perhaps someone read your previous post on the asset value increase being up to 1.4 billion. Think you've started a "break-out"!!!


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## noirua (23 January 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Up 19c now Noirua - perhaps someone read your previous post on the asset value increase being up to 1.4 billion. Think you've started a "break-out"!!!





Maybe reefer, but I doubt it. Trading at $4.58 now.

Rumours on other boards of a bid close to $6.00, absolutely nothing to back it up at all though.

Bid - Ask has suddenly gone $4.61 - $4.72, could be an error though.


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## noirua (23 January 2007)

Something went wrong there as Felix suddenly reversed to $4.39, up one cent. Picking up again now at $4.45.


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## noirua (30 January 2007)

Felix closed at $4.50 after dipping early on. 

All the charts of FLX make interesting reading, from 1 month to 2 years. Before that, the charts are of little interest and the ASX 6 monthly chart is probably the one to watch for FLX:  http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...de=FLX&TimeFrame=D6&compare=index&indices=XJO

Felix awaits the go ahead at Moolarben. The Newcastle Dock muddle is unlikely to be of much concern to FLX and weakening in the Aussie Dollar of late should improve profitability, if it stays that way.


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## Reefer (30 January 2007)

Austock and Wilson HTM have their latest broker analysis for Felix up on the Felix website.  Wilsons have a target price of $5.56 a share with a DCF valuation of $7.25 share.
"We continue to rate FLX as a strong BUY and one of our “top picks” for 2007. The expected near term approval of the Moolarben project and confirmation of first coal from the Ashton underground are expected to represent significant de-risking points with associated further re-pricing of the stock. Our DCF valuation is $7.25/share and target price $5.56/share. Our FY2007 NPAT forecast of $42.0m (before asset sale profits) has been reduced by $1.0m reflecting slightly below forecast Dec half coal shipments, and with no change to our June half forecast shipments. An adjustment to our assumed Minerva equity interest for the Dec half from 55% to 53%, also had a minor impact. Asset sale profits for the year are forecast at $54m after tax."


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## Reefer (30 January 2007)

Austock aren't quite as upbeat with a 12 month target of $4.50 - should be exceeded in the next couple of days


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## noirua (31 January 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Austock and Wilson HTM have their latest broker analysis for Felix up on the Felix website.  Wilsons have a target price of $5.56 a share with a DCF valuation of $7.25 share.
> "We continue to rate FLX as a strong BUY and one of our “top picks” for 2007. The expected near term approval of the Moolarben project and confirmation of first coal from the Ashton underground are expected to represent significant de-risking points with associated further re-pricing of the stock. Our DCF valuation is $7.25/share and target price $5.56/share. Our FY2007 NPAT forecast of $42.0m (before asset sale profits) has been reduced by $1.0m reflecting slightly below forecast Dec half coal shipments, and with no change to our June half forecast shipments. An adjustment to our assumed Minerva equity interest for the Dec half from 55% to 53%, also had a minor impact. Asset sale profits for the year are forecast at $54m after tax."





That Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is an important large chunk ( 62% ) above the current traded price of $4.45, this morning. Despite two others giving FLX a "hold" rating, we should see FLX strengthen more on the bullish tones from Wilson HTM, IMHO.


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## Reefer (31 January 2007)

I agree Noirua.  ABN Amro's valuations have been much lower than Wilson's in the past, and even Wilsons estimates have been proven to be too low in hindsight. I get the impression that Wilson HTM are more familiar with coal stocks and seem to go into more detail with their research and assumptions.
Eg the other brokers are assuming big demurrage problems for Felix based on the recent reporting of Rio Tinto and XStrata, whereas Wilsons note there appears "no noticeable impact" on "targeted shipping rates" for Yarrabee and Ashton to date, although they concede these may deteriorate in the next six months.  Interesting they qualify those concerns with the thought that smaller shippers are more flexible in handling the delays on the wharves. It may be that the rate of increase in the share price tempers a little, but I feel they still have quite a bit of upside yet.


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## noirua (1 February 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> I agree Noirua.  ABN Amro's valuations have been much lower than Wilson's in the past, and even Wilsons estimates have been proven to be too low in hindsight. I get the impression that Wilson HTM are more familiar with coal stocks and seem to go into more detail with their research and assumptions.
> Eg the other brokers are assuming big demurrage problems for Felix based on the recent reporting of Rio Tinto and XStrata, whereas Wilsons note there appears "no noticeable impact" on "targeted shipping rates" for Yarrabee and Ashton to date, although they concede these may deteriorate in the next six months.  Interesting they qualify those concerns with the thought that smaller shippers are more flexible in handling the delays on the wharves. It may be that the rate of increase in the share price tempers a little, but I feel they still have quite a bit of upside yet.




Nothings tempered this morning as Felix move up to $4.60, up 10 cents, in the first 25 minutes in much heavier trading than normal. I know what you mean though, as there is little chance of Felix's share price trebling again in the next six months.
Will be interesting to see if Felix move quickly to Wilson HTM's 12 month forecast or go close to the DCF valuation.


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## noirua (1 February 2007)

Felix power on to $4.73, up 23 cents, with ASK at $4.80. Trading is at over 200,000 shares in the first hour, which is above Felix's normal trading day.
The Wilson HTM comments are lifting Felix towards the $5.00 level.


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## noirua (2 February 2007)

Felix closed at a bit disappointing $4.58, up just 8 cents, after hitting $4.74 early on.  Trading reached a heady 1,007,333 shares with 5 large trades going through at $4.58, 140,000, 255,268, 136,510, 101,646 and 101,646. It will be interesting to know who the seller, and more importantly the buyer,  was and whether the most likely happened, the bargains were matched.


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## noirua (2 February 2007)

Felix stock is quieter today, though marginally on the plus side after heavy trading on Thursday. Interest surrounds the three major holders in Felix stock as they together near a 50% holding in the company. This would give them two clear options: 

1). They could stop any predator in their tracks. 
2). They could agree a bid and recommend to shareholders, what would be close to a done deal.


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## noirua (5 February 2007)

Felix fell yesterday to $4.53 and once again recovered towards the close, reaching $4.70 in lighter trading than of late. The full half yearly results will be out in three weeks time on 26th Feb 2007.

Interest remains strong on the awaited go ahead of the Newcastle Port expansion that FLX have an interest in, and the Moolarben open-cut development.


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## noirua (6 February 2007)

Another day of widely varying prices greets us, with market depth showing bids and offers all over the place. Will be interesting to see if late buyer/buyers arrive late in the day, once again. Closed yesterday at $4.70, opened today at $4.57 and fell to $4.43 and recovering now at $4.55.

Analysts reports show wide variations; the most bullish is Wilson HTM with a strong buy recommendation and 12 month target of $5.56; ABN Ambro see a price of $3.95; and others giving buy, sell and hold recommendations.


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## Reefer (6 February 2007)

Your intraday trading pattern has been confirmed again Noirua.  The Austock clients trying to reach their target of $3.85 seem to disappear after the morning session, the ABN Amro dealers fiddle in a holding pattern over lunch and early afternoon, and the Wilson dealers come back from a long lunch each day, pretty well tanked up, and fly into the market late trying to push to $5.56.  Bit of a bumpy ride for all concerned!!!


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## noirua (7 February 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Your intraday trading pattern has been confirmed again Noirua.  The Austock clients trying to reach their target of $3.85 seem to disappear after the morning session, the ABN Amro dealers fiddle in a holding pattern over lunch and early afternoon, and the Wilson dealers come back from a long lunch each day, pretty well tanked up, and fly into the market late trying to push to $5.56.  Bit of a bumpy ride for all concerned!!!




Off again it seems, with a sharp drop of 13 cents to $4.52 after Felix recovered to $4.68 yesterday, after $4.43, and closed at $4.65. Very odd trading is going on and having followed closely for nearly 25 years, this is very much a new pattern, and I wonder why?


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## Reefer (7 February 2007)

I agree it's a bit disconcerting.  It's almost like there are a few card players out there trying to off suit each other.  On such low volumes it must be each side trying to get the best deal on their trades.  I guess with such wide variance in the broker estimates of the yearly price target it's a matter of who has the stronger hand on the day as to where the price will go.  I think the February announcement of the half yearly results will be good - whether it is already factored into the SP or has any bearing on the SP is anyone's guess.


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## noirua (7 February 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> I agree it's a bit disconcerting.  It's almost like there are a few card players out there trying to off suit each other.  On such low volumes it must be each side trying to get the best deal on their trades.  I guess with such wide variance in the broker estimates of the yearly price target it's a matter of who has the stronger hand on the day as to where the price will go.  I think the February announcement of the half yearly results will be good - whether it is already factored into the SP or has any bearing on the SP is anyone's guess.




It seems that a UK Broker, Hargreaves Lansdowne, has offered to sell Felix Resources Stock free of charge, for its UK clients. Sources site a matched trade arrangement with an Australian Broker.


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## Reefer (7 February 2007)

There are some pretty average "Sells" out there - 3 sellers for total of 646 shares, 1 seller for 256 shares.  Was there some new issue in the past (like 1 for 83 or something similar) that I missed which created all these small holdings, or is it brokers playing funny games.  I sold 4000 VSL some months ago and the trade all went through on one day but broken up into about 20 small trades.  Is this how brokers do it ??


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## noirua (7 February 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> There are some pretty average "Sells" out there - 3 sellers for total of 646 shares, 1 seller for 256 shares.  Was there some new issue in the past (like 1 for 83 or something similar) that I missed which created all these small holdings, or is it brokers playing funny games.  I sold 4000 VSL some months ago and the trade all went through on one day but broken up into about 20 small trades.  Is this how brokers do it ??




 I can remember, however, at the 2,000 meeting, that the Chairman said that the majority of shareholders were based in the U.K., Southern Ireland, Germany and US. Many of the small holders sold out at the equivalent of 93 cents when the $500 buy-back rule was enacted - US holders were not included. 

Thoughts are that German holders still have around 5% of FLX stock that is regularly traded in Germany. Many UK holders wrote declining the $500 rule and held on to their stock. 

There lies a big problem. The major and large shareholders have nearly 65% of the company and UK holders that never trade, may have another 20%. Most are thought to be with Hargreaves Lansdowne and TD Waterhouse. 

This all happened because trading on the UK AIM market came to an end when the previous MD, Mr Jon Parker arrived.

It would be interesting to know who is interested in Hargreaves Lansdownes' Felix Holdings.


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## noirua (8 February 2007)

Felix are doing the downward move early on, for the umpteenth time. Closed at $4.62 yesterday and trading now at $4.51. The Half Yearly Report on 26th February will be important in determining Felix Resources cash pile situation, after sale of parts of Minerva and Athena, Yarrabee and Ashton.


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## noirua (9 February 2007)

Felix once again managed the recovery trick. Falling to $4.50 and finishing 1c up at $4.63 in very light trading. One reason given for low prices early on is, selling from the UK, "at best"; A UK Broker has combined with another to trade stock, "for free".


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## noirua (9 February 2007)

Felix Resources finished the week at $4.64 after another down day, finishing with a late recovery, for the eighth day in a row. Stating this fact again may be a bit boring, though the two way push and pull is interesting. Will FLX break up or down from here?


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## noirua (10 February 2007)

Felix Resources produce mainly Thermal Coal with some PCI and semi-soft coking. The following article shows a bullish view for thermal coal:  http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070119/19/125j6.html


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## noirua (12 February 2007)

Felix Resources are now confident on just about every front. Good News comes from virtually every interest. 

Latest is the upbeat news from Western Plains Resources, where an announcement is expected to raise the present 14 million tonnes of High Grade Iron Ore at the Peculiar Knob Tenement. FLX have a holding in WPG, through their 90% owned subsiduary, S.A.S.E. and royalties on production.


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## mmmmining (13 February 2007)

Seeing a bit price movement, maybe people think about who is taking over whom now after SXR.TO pull the plug.

The Canadian invasion again, or PDN is on the look out?


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## noirua (13 February 2007)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Seeing a bit price movement, maybe people think about who is taking over whom now after SXR.TO pull the plug.
> 
> The Canadian invasion again, or PDN is on the look out?




Hi, struggled to understand the above, maybe a translation problem.

Anyway, Felix have fallen to $4.36 today after hitting $4.74 a few weeks ago. I thought the shares would go through the $5.00 level, so far I'm being proved wrong; Hopefully it's only profit taking.


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## noirua (14 February 2007)

Felix shares have reached $4.48 in trading this morning.

More thought on Mines beyond Moolarben, that should come on stream early in 2008 and reach full production of 10 mtpa by 2011. Athena will be an underground mine that will be larger than Moolarben; A date has not been announced for a go ahead as yet. Felix have a 51% interest.

Athena covers 27,000 hectares and the inferred resource is 560 million tonnes of thermal coal. ( Ash 4.3%, yield 91%, volatile matter 34% and total sulphur 0.3%.)

Athena is owned 51% by Felix, 45% by Soljitze of Japan and 4% by Kores of Korea.


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## noirua (14 February 2007)

Felix shares may be suffering from a block sale of shares by Hargreaves Lansdowne, a UK Broker, who promised to sell stock in FLX for no fee. Felix have recovered some more today at $4.39.


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## Reefer (23 February 2007)

Felix had an intraday low on 13th Feb of $4.19 and has traded sideways for the last fortnight up until the last couple of days.  It is now approaching it's annual high with the half yearlys due on Tuesday 26th.  May be some good results in the wind.  No doubt sales revenue and production are up but they have not up to now quantified the demurrage problem from Newcastle port.  Perhaps the diversification through various ports has softened the blow of demurrage compared with other coal exporters.  Looking forward to Tuesday.


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## noirua (23 February 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> Felix had an intraday low on 13th Feb of $4.19 and has traded sideways for the last fortnight up until the last couple of days.  It is now approaching it's annual high with the half yearlys due on Tuesday 26th.  May be some good results in the wind.  No doubt sales revenue and production are up but they have not up to now quantified the demurrage problem from Newcastle port.  Perhaps the diversification through various ports has softened the blow of demurrage compared with other coal exporters.  Looking forward to Tuesday.




Hopefully, we'll see the Half Yearly Results this coming Monday, 26th February 07. Demurrage cost Felix $5 million in the previous half Year, but, as you indicate, it's only Yarrabee coal sales that have to pay a burden on this. 

The MD had previously indicated, that the older low pricing agreements on thermal coal started to come to an end and profits should increase rapidly throughout 2007 ( Dates of these agreements and when they come to an end, were not given, nor figures on the likely favourable impact in terms of profits ).

Will be interesting to see if FLX pay a first ever interim dividend since coming to the market in 1978, and how profits from asset sales are taxed and whether previous losses ( particularly Ballymoney - $68 million - and S.A.S.E. - $17 million - ) are accounted for.


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## noirua (25 February 2007)

Felix, will hopefully, give details of the position on a go-ahead, by NSW Government, for the Newcastle Dock Extension and the Companies other main interest, the Moolarben Tenement. Talk of delay due to future elections.


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## noirua (26 February 2007)

Half Yearly Report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070226/pdf/3114n84wlgkp4p.pdf


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## Reefer (26 February 2007)

Don't know that the company gave much away with the half yearlys.  If you take out the asset sales and the tax advantage, the profit is only marginally better than the corresponding period last year.  Demurrage is probably down slightly.  They do indicate they have cleared all the lower value sales contracts and new prices are much better.  Moolarben go ahead still not sanctioned.  Hope the market is not disappointed.


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## noirua (26 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Half Yearly Report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070226/pdf/3114n84wlgkp4p.pdf




Reading quickly through this half yearly report, it looks as if the golden times are just over that there hill. Big increases for Thermal and Semi-soft coking coal kick-in early April 2007 and the Ashton Longwall Mine provides the last quarter with full production profits. 

$45 million after tax profits, including the Ashton Mining Sale and a $7 million tax return, have helped cash in the bank to hit $36 million despite a large cash requirements to finish the Ashton Longwall Mine and get the Moolarben open-Cut Mine ready to be started on in Mid-2007. ( Moolarben subject NSW go-ahead. )

A large cash sum, $68 million,  is due for the sale of 49% of Yarrabee, eventually.

Profits, after stripping out the Ashton Sale and tax return, reached just $10 million. This should increase massively in the second half. 

Moolarben is the big one, making no bones about it. The Phillipson Coal sale, Hawks Nest and other Iron Ore tenements, Harry Brandt Mine and the ADC interest at Ausmelt add icing on the cake. Profits from the 51% owned Athena Underground Mine ( 560 million tonnes inferred ) is another big development towards the end of this decade.

Everything to go for at Felix Resources, though we should remember this is a cyclical sector.


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## noirua (26 February 2007)

Felix closed at $4.79, up 9 cents, to a 4 year high. Number One Aussie coal stock on share price performance and MAY still be far from their eventual high, providing NSW give the go-ahead on the Moolarben Project and the Newcastle Port Extension.


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## michael_selway (26 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Felix closed at $4.79, up 9 cents, to a 4 year high. Number One Aussie coal stock on share price performance and MAY still be far from their eventual high, providing NSW give the go-ahead on the Moolarben Project and the Newcastle Port Extension.




EXL was the best lol!

hm but evn now, i think CEY will do better at current prices

thx

MS


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## noirua (26 February 2007)

Felix Resources Half Yearly Radio Report by MD, Mr Brian Flannery, " Record Tonnage":  http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/19566


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## haemitite (26 February 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> EXL was the best lol!
> 
> hm but evn now, i think CEY will do better at current prices
> 
> ...



 FLX have had a great run, but I think RSP is a better investment from here

BTW, you should look at changing your tagline, if Ducati sees NPV and EPS together it will re-inforce his belief that accounting and cashflow are interchangable


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## noirua (27 February 2007)

After the excellent comments by MD, Mr Brian Flannery, concerning the second half, Felix are now close to $5.00.


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## noirua (28 February 2007)

Felix, one of the strongest performers in the Aussie coal sector, fell 53 cents to $4.35. Interesting, as the companies portfolio is solely in the Aussie sector.


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## imajica (28 February 2007)

the mass panic sell is indiscriminate and myopic

TFE is getting hammered as well


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## noirua (28 February 2007)

imajica said:
			
		

> the mass panic sell is indiscriminate and myopic
> 
> TFE is getting hammered as well




I hope the sellers are being short-sighted too. Despite having been 75% in cash yesterday, i'm suddenly 78% in cash and wondering if I should be brave and buy some of the cashed up miners.


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## noirua (28 February 2007)

A strong finish by number one coal stock, Felix Resources. Closing at $4.67 after hitting $4.30 during the day. Always seems to be a buyer or buyers ready to jump in late on.


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## noirua (2 March 2007)

Felix slumped at the opening in light trading to $4.50 before rallying to $4.61. Hopefully, a view that resources stocks are cheap will advantage FLX. 

A difficult hold are FLX in these choppy waters, as investors may be panicked further into taking profits.


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## noirua (2 March 2007)

Felix have moved up today after a good report by TradingRoom, "Benefit of Experience gives Felix the edge."


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## noirua (5 March 2007)

Felix trade, up this morning at $4.80, up 12 cents. ( six year closing high was $4.93 ) 

We are waiting now for the outcome of a decision by NRG Flinders Power Partnerships ( NRGF) on the Phillipson Coal Reserves ( 5 billion tonnes of Sub-Bitumous Coal ) that is planned for use at their Port Augusta Power Station. This will follow on from the run-down of supplies from the Leigh Creek Mine.

In the first three years to May 2007, Flinders have paid Felix Tenement and administration costs that escalate over the following three years.

The purchase/exercise price will reflect historical expenditure by Felix since obtaining the tenements EL2717, RL 100 and RL104. There is also a provision for Royalty Payments to Felix based on future production.

NRG Flinders have a right to extend their decision to May 2010 whilst making escalating payments that are allowed against the exercise price.


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## noirua (6 March 2007)

Felix finished at $4.75, which overall is an excellent effort, SO FAR. One of very few shares not to be affected by the market slide. Analysts have given asset values at about $1.3 billion with the market Cap at around $860 million ( this excludes Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob royalties; as well as sale and royalties from Phillipson; and a value on ADC and S.A.S.E.


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## noirua (6 March 2007)

Felix were hit early on, in light trading, and fell to $4.52 and recovered a little to $4.58. The fall, from $4.75, was caused by a forecast that Chinese growth would fall to 8.5% this year. An article on "Aireview" said that all commodities had been hit, "you name it", and this had followed on from the equity slide.

Aireview also pointed out that this may well be a shake-out similar to that in May/June last year and that everything, like then, would return to normal.


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## noirua (6 March 2007)

Light trading continues as Felix Resources accellerate back to $4.75. Felix, imho, do seem to have that wow factor with all the assets firing on all cylinders at the moment, except perhaps poor old Ballymoney in Northern Ireland that we have all forgotten about. 

These no risk option returns with WPG, Iron Ore and Flinders, sub-bitumous coal, seem to have been forgotten by ALL the analysts.


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## Reefer (6 March 2007)

I thought Ballymoney was out of the equation now.  Didn't the compnay announce a long while back that the leases had not ben renewed??


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## noirua (6 March 2007)

Reefer said:
			
		

> I thought Ballymoney was out of the equation now.  Didn't the compnay announce a long while back that the leases had not ben renewed??




Felix still have two companies virtually mothballed, Ballymoney Power and Auriada Ltd. The Northern Ireland Government have suspended a decision on mining until November 2007. The opposition is very strong and is led by the biggest party in Northern Ireland, the DUP. 

It's Ok having opposition to a mine, but if people are prepared to blow you up if you try and put one there it just isn't worth it. 

Felix would probably like a get out on this one, as they are struggling to get the Aussie tax people to accept the enormous loss against tax. Not much chance of that either.

Maybe the Indians who have taken over the UK's Corus might stump up something on a 30-year-view.

Value of Ballymoney is probably less than zero at the moment.


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## noirua (7 March 2007)

It's worth a look at the three analysts reports:

First by Wilson HTM on 22/01/07:
http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20070122_WHTM.pdf

Second by Austock on 30/01/07:
http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20070130_AUSTOCk.pdf

Third by ABN-Amro Morgans on 8/12/2006:
http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20061208_ABNAmro.pdf

Company Half Yearly Report on Boardroom Radio in an interview with Felix Resources, MD, Mr Brian Flannery:
http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/18281/wmp/friaqnix52


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## Sean K (7 March 2007)

Nice chart Noirua. Held up better than most.


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## noirua (7 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Nice chart Noirua. Held up better than most.




Hi, Has held up well but needs the all important go ahead at Moolarben combined with the Newcastle Port Extension. Held up by NSW Elections.


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## noirua (8 March 2007)

Good news seems to come in abundance as Felix stock continues in plus territory today.
Further news of the Peculiar Knob tenement as WPG sight their recent report as showing the iron ore results as amongst one of the best High Grade finds ever found in Australia. Felix have a 5% share interest and royalties on future production.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070308/pdf/311ckfrgsxy3h1.pdf


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## noirua (9 March 2007)

At this link, you will find, the original application for three projects at Moolarben, by White Mining Ltd:  http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/asp/pdf/05_0117_major_projects_application.pdf

The application estimates the total cost of developing Moolarben at A$220 million.


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## noirua (9 March 2007)

Website of the Mining Council of NSW:  http://www.nswmining.com.au


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## noirua (10 March 2007)

The value or at least the outlook for Felix Resources would change with a go-ahead at Moolarben, near Mudgee, Central West NSW. 

Moolarben open-cut would start at 4 mtpa and gradually ramp up to 9 mtpa with an additional 4 mtpa in 2010 at the longwall underground mine.

Will there be outside interest for Moolarben and would Felix Resources welcome this? I say welcome, because the main 5 shareholders have over 60% of the companies shares.

Moolarben is valued at A$800 to A$900 million by one analyst and Felix will need A$80 million to develop the open-cut mine and A$150 million more for the underground mine. ( 2005 prices )

Felix should make EBITDA$45 -55 million for the current tax year and this should total around EBITDA $110 - 125 million after asset sales. This should give Felix enough cash to develop the Moolarben Open-Cut mine. 

Why then would Felix like a partner. Well, all this coal will need to be sold, principally to China, Japan and Korea. A deal with a major Asian company or companies would cement the sales for the future.  
Also Felix would like to accellerate their longwall mine at Moolarben and perhaps their 51% owned Athena tenements. 

Moolarben may well be worth around A$800 - A$900 million and an asset sale worth around A$200 millon or more would quickly accellerate Felix Resources on to the ASX200 and then ASX100.
Shareholders would also be looking for rewards in the form of increased dividends, capital return and a company buy-back of shares. 

At a share price of nearly $5.00, a dividend of 20 cents a share, 16 cents up on last years dividend, would be nearer the mark. 

It's a case of expand and expand for Felix Resources and this does cost a great deal, especially, if the company rewards its shareholders as well.


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## noirua (13 March 2007)

Elections that are important to Felix Resources as the go-ahead at Moolarben needs these to be out of the way as soon as possible:  http://news.com.au/dailytelegraph/election/


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## noirua (13 March 2007)

Felix Resources, that exports thermal coal from the Newcastle Port are confident of increasing profits in the second half as old supply agreements come to an end. 
New pricing agreements will add further to Felix profits as more thermal coal comes onstream:  http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21346819-5005200,00.html


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## noirua (13 March 2007)

Below is a link to the Sojitz website that shows how their now 45% interest in Minerva and Athena, ties in with the 51% interest of Felix Resources, confidence at sojitz is certainly very high:  http://www.sojitz.com/en/news/2006/pdf/060815e.pdf


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## noirua (15 March 2007)

A good performance by Felix Resources in finishing up 2 cents at $4.89, just 3 cents off their six-year-high. Trading was light again and perhaps made price movements a bit meaningless. All the same, there appears to be interested party/parties picking up stock. 

The main interest, as we know, is the awaited go-ahead decision for Moolarben and the Newcastle Port. Upside, on a favourable decision in the near term, should/may spark a great deal of interest from foreign companies in South Korea, Japan, Europe and China, and maybe Peabody, Xstrata or others.


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## noirua (15 March 2007)

Felix Resources: Voluntary Planning Agreement for Moolarben - Wilpinjong Coal Pty Ltd., is a 100% owned subsiduary of Felix Resources:

http://midwestern.nsw.gov.au/planning/3034/5217.html


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## noirua (15 March 2007)

Moolarben Coal Project - Original Planning Agreement

http://midwestern.nsw.gov.au/files/5216/File/FinalDraftVPAMoolarben.pdf

Felix Resources finished at the days high of $4.92, just 1c off their 6-year-high.


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## noirua (20 March 2007)

It's straight on through the $5.00 barrier, as Felix finish up 15 cents to $5.05, the days high. Trading still remains quite light, 280,000 shares going through a little higher than usual.  Moolarben is the continuing main factor and the background possibility of a bid if it goes forward with the Newcastle Port extension.


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## noirua (20 March 2007)

Felix Resources are ahead another 15 cents to $5.20 as investors concentrate on likely interest and value of Moolarben. Felix may well do better than expected on their interest in WPG's Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob tenements in South Australia.


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## noirua (20 March 2007)

Interest in Felix Resources is building, that is trading is moving up to more acceptable levels. Trade went through a few minutes ago for 100,000 shares at $5.25.


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## noirua (21 March 2007)

American Metals and Coal International (AMCI) have purchased Resources Management and Mining's 19.2% holding in Felix Resources for $5 a share:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070321/pdf/311kvvxdvsvk9d.pdf


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## noirua (22 March 2007)

Felix closed, once again, at a 6 year closing high, at $5.29. This followed the take-out stake by AMCI of 19.5% of Felix Resources. This should now put sales of thermal, PCI and semi-soft coking coal on a much firmer footing.


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## noirua (22 March 2007)

Goldman Sachs JBWere, said that AMCI could use their stake in Felix Resources as either a blocking stake or a launching pad.

Felix trade at $5.35, up 6 cents this morning. Felix stock has risen over 250% from its 2006 low.


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## noirua (22 March 2007)

Felix Resources, one of the biggest success stories in the mid-cap sector, moved on to a $5.36 close on the ASX. Now capitalised at $1 billion (Market cap in 2003 was $25 million) and set to expand into India:  http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21425109-5005200,00.html


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## haemitite (24 March 2007)

Whats your current take on Felix Noirua - its been an amazing ride over the last 12 months


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## noirua (25 March 2007)

haemitite said:


> Whats your current take on Felix Noirua - its been an amazing ride over the last 12 months





There is a lot of food for thought on what happened last week.

AMCI have about $1 billion available to invest after asset sales recently. Mr Brian Flannery, MD of Felix, has said that "AMCI would not be a passive investor and were interested in expanding into India" and he thought, "now was the right time to do that". Felix, Mr Flannery said, "would have a 9 mtpa production of thermal coal from the Moolarben open-cut mine and 4 mtpa from the Moolarben underground mine".


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## michael_selway (25 March 2007)

noirua said:


> There is a lot of food for thought on what happened last week.
> 
> AMCI have about $1 billion available to invest after asset sales recently. Mr Brian Flannery, MD of Felix, has said that "AMCI would not be a passive investor and were interested in expanding into India" and he thought, "now was the right time to do that". Felix, Mr Flannery said, "would have a 9 mtpa production of thermal coal from the Moolarben open-cut mine and 4 mtpa from the Moolarben underground mine".




Totally unbelievable! How much did u buy FLX for Noirua?



> Date: 22/3/2007
> Author: Andrew Trounson
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 27
> Queensland coal group Felix has gained AMCI as a 19.2 per cent investor, for which the US-based coal miner paid $A188 million. The founding shareholders, Ian McCauley and John Rawlins, received an unsolicited offer from a rival international group in mid-March, which led to AMCI's rapid response. The growing demand for thermal coal in Asia is part of the reason for AMCI's enthusiasm, which previously sold most of its Australian coal assets to Brazil's CVRD for $A835 million




Btw Noriua what do u think of CEY?

thx

MS


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## noirua (26 March 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Totally unbelievable! How much did u buy FLX for Noirua?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Hi m_s, I've been holding some shares in Felix since 1983, bought on many occasions and sold on a few, but always held some stock. Obviously showing a good profit on this one, however, "A profit is not a profit until it's Banked" and "A paper loss is a real loss". Good Luck


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## noirua (26 March 2007)

Felix Resources had further good news as WPG continued with excellent results at Peculiar Knob. Value of holding of WPG stock rose to $1.5 million and the position looks good for royalties in 2008:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070326/pdf/311n06xj4zz4z0.pdf


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## noirua (27 March 2007)

Quite a heavy fall for Felix today as investors digest all that happened last week. Hit a low of $5.00, down 30 cents, before recovering a little at $5.09, in light trading. 

With RMM accepting $5.00 a share from AMCI there needs to be a pause for thought.


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## noirua (28 March 2007)

Felix trade at $5.20 at the moment as the AMCI situation settles.

AMCI may be holding the 19.2% stake in Felix for another interested party, IMHO. They have sold a lot of Aussie coal interests recently, nearly $900 million, and this does beg the question as to whether they are quite such solid holders as the MD of Felix seems to suggest.


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## noirua (29 March 2007)

Radio Report by MD, Mr Brian Flannery of Felix Resources, concerning the sale of Felix stock by RMM to AMCI and a general update, last week:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/21587


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## noirua (29 March 2007)

Felix finished at $5.13, down 17 cents in extremely light trading.

The wife of Director, Mr A. Anthony Mclelland, sold the remainder of her holding in Felix Resources, 70,000 shares for an average $4.86.


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## noirua (30 March 2007)

Felix Resources fell away to trade at $5.00 as Fairfax News reported that "Felix would face a legal battle at Mudgee Mine" and "Xstrata in court bid to block Felix mine".


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## noirua (30 March 2007)

"Felix faces legal battle at Mudgie Coalmine" as reported in the The Sydney Morning Herald:  http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...mudgee-coalmine/2007/03/29/1174761661347.html

I noticed on visiting this ural that I picked up spyware/adware, no problem if you have protection.


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## Reefer (30 March 2007)

I don't believe many investors have a greta opinion of Xstrata so one can only hope they get pushed back into the pit with the other bottom feeders.
They are currently trying to take over LIM at prices most analysts describe as opportunistic.  I just hope the defence does not cost too much out of the cash flow or delay the Moolarben start up.


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## noirua (30 March 2007)

ASX annoucement by Felix on Moolarben at Mudgee:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070330/pdf/311q9lkkfph18h.pdf

Both the meeting with the mining warden and court hearing are next week, 3rd April and 5th April respectively. I wonder if AMCI were aware of all this when they purchased RMM's 19.2% stake in Felix?


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## noirua (31 March 2007)

As discussions on "Moolarben" reach a crucial stage we look at the Moolarben Map:  http://www.zoomin.com.au/australia/nsw/moolarben/


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## noirua (1 April 2007)

The Legal Action taken by Xstrata, case due to be heard on 5th April 07, has a look about it as if they were beaten to the punch by AMCI., as they had their eyes on  Felix's forthcoming meeting with the Mining Warden on 3rd April and their own efforts to block the Moolarbens Mine go-ahead. 

Finding themselves in a catch 22 situation over the land they have certain rights to, that cover approximately 20% of the Moolarben mine, and AMCI coming up on the blind side and purchasing 19.2% of Felix, has left Xstrata in an uncertain situation which is of their own making.

Did Xstrata, seeing themselves as a big guy on the block, hope that Felix would cave in and let them have 20% of the project for next to nothing?


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## noirua (2 April 2007)

This link shows how Felix Resources have raised currency hedging from 30% to 60% and are considering raising this to 90%:  http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/22/bloomberg/sxasia.php

As this report was on 22nd January 07 we can see how things have gone since then.


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## noirua (2 April 2007)

The big week for Felix Resources is now under way. If all goes well the stock at $5.06 is probably cheap. On the other hand, if all goes badly the opposite is the case.

The meeting with the Mining Warden this Tuesday is complicated by the Xstrata versus Felix court case on Thursday. Both concern the Moolarben Project.


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## noirua (3 April 2007)

Felix are recovering surprisingly strongly at $5.26, up 20 cents.

What ever the outcome of this weeks meetings the arrival of Xstrata on the scene is very interesting, especially after a report on Bloomberg about their views on the massive demand for commodities in China. My feeling is that there will be a happy end to all of this that will benefit Felix Resources as well as Xstrata.


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## noirua (4 April 2007)

Felix had their meeting with the Mining Warden of NSW today. This Linc shows "Minerals Exploration & Mining Titles" and "How they Do Affect You?" http://www.nswmin.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/6810/Land_Titles_Fact_Sheet_1106.pdf


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

What value should be put on Felix Resources with all that is going on. Heading forward at great speed and looking forward to the Moolarben mine coming onstream early next year and now we find ourselves, as shareholders, looking at all the extra fences being put up up.

The meeting with the Mining Warden, last Tuesday, looked straight forward both for the open-cut mine and the underground longwall mine. Now Xstrata, long known for all the Supreme Court wranglings over the years, are trying to prevent Felix from getting access to the Moolarben mine, by saying, they need the ground that covers 20% of the Moolarben Area for their own mine. Strange how they, Xstrata, failed to object to the Mining Warden, in due time, when they had the chance to do so. 
What is Xstrata's real aim here?
The case brought before the NSW Supeme Court last Thursday continues this week.


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

Demurrage costs have become a significant cost factor for coal miners, such as Felix Resources, and the new expansion of the Koorang Coal Terminal at Newcastle will help:  http://www.pwcs.com.au/pages/terminals/expansions.php


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## noirua (11 April 2007)

What now, as Xstrata have gone off in a big sulk at being beaten to the draw by AMCI over the RMM 19.2% holding in Felix Resources. 

Xstrata should, in theory, be happy with their purchases of Lion Ore and Gloucester Coal. The latter not quite so close to settlement. But are they?

The biggest holders of Felix Resources stock are Gaffwick Pty with 15.87%; Ilwella Pty with 15.61%; Fibora Pty with 7.71%; Greenworth Pty with 5.14%; Leopold Station with 5.14%; and Covelane at 2.2% - adding up to 51.67% and therefore control of Felix Resources.  That would give Xstrata a near 52% chunk of Felix Resources. AMCI hold 19.2% of Felix. 

The problems are the present court case, combined with a mining go-ahead at Moolarben for the open-cut and underground mines. If these problems were all out of the way then FLX may be worth as much as $7.50 a share. That is with the best analysts estimate and the 25% risk taken away.


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## noirua (11 April 2007)

Felix Resources are amongst many miners that are having problems shipping coal out of the Newcastle Port. Mr Costello is blamed for holding up an expansion at Newcastle due to the coming Federal Elections:  http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1894029.htm

Felix hit a six year high of $5.50 today, up 24 cents.


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## noirua (12 April 2007)

Felix Resources mine a majority of thermal coal for export. The following article cements confidence:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=akYj4hbezrFs&refer=energy


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## noirua (16 April 2007)

Felix Resources are up 14 cents at $5.60 and from market depth are looking to go a bit higher. This is a 6.5 year high as they await important developments at Moolarben. Interesting news at Ausmelt on the ferrous side, Felix have a 21.5% stake in ADC, quite recently, has added further to confidence.


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## noirua (16 April 2007)

At last a go ahead at the Newcastle Port for the third terminal:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070416/pdf/311ydqfj0h40lt.pdf

Felix Resources stock hit a 6.5 year closing high at $5.72, up 26 cents. 

Felix are also part of the Infrastructure Group for the Newcastle Third Terminal.


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## noirua (16 April 2007)

Moolarben is the next decision awaited with baited breath by Felix Resources Management and shareholders. This should give Felix an added push, if and when it is announced.

Xstrata are in the process of trying to stop Felix from gaining access to its area of land, that comprises approximately 20% of the area of the Moolarben Project. A preliminary Court hearing at the NSW Supreme Court took place on 5th April 2007. 

Three major shareholders (excluding AMCI., who have 19.2% of Felix stock) hold over 50% of Felix Resources.

An interesting time lies ahead.


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## haemitite (16 April 2007)

This is up over 250% now in less than 10 months

Its been a great ride but I'm starting to think about an exit point.


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## noirua (17 April 2007)

haemitite said:


> This is up over 250% now in less than 10 months
> 
> Its been a great ride but I'm starting to think about an exit point.




Hi haemitite, and Felix stock is up 1500% since its low point of 38 cents in 2003, but is well down from its high of $13.50 in 2001. 

You have to make your own decision on this one. 

Plus points are: Go ahead on Moolarben and future large mine at Athena. AMCI may take Felix into India to mine coking coal. Takeover bid is still on the cards. Newcastle Port third terminal will solve demurrage problems. ADC may float on the ASX giving Felix an added bonus. WPG may do outstandingly well with its iron ore reserves, Felix have royalties.  The Phillipson, 5 billion tonne sub-bitumous coal reserves, may give Felix a much higher return than expected.

Downside: Thermal coal prices could weaken and strength of the Aussie dollar. Any success in the courts for Xstrata.


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## noirua (18 April 2007)

Felix have opened, up 12 cents at $5.72 and many wonder, not whether the $6.00 level will be breached, but, whether the analysts, Wilson HTM's, $7.25 figure, with 25% risk given at the time, is a target, if the Moolarben mine gets the go ahead and the Xstrata legal problem is solved or ditched by them. As the level of risk is reduced, the target gets closer, as Wilson HTM's $5.56, 12 month target, has already been beaten.

After this we can look for the next mine, it is Athena. This tenement is near the already producing mine at Minerva. The project has considerably more coal than Moolarben.


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## noirua (20 April 2007)

Felix trade at $5.82 this morning, up 11 cents, closing in on the $6.00 level. Felix await the NSW Mining Wardens decision on Moolarben and news of Felix's go ahead on Athena.


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## haemitite (21 April 2007)

Thanks for the continue updates nuira.

I find it quite amusing that while most people have been banging on about uranium, copper and nickel the most commoditised and lowest margin sector, energy coal, has been a huge performer in the past 12 months

FLX up 250%, GCL up a respectable although not earth shattering 50%, and RSP have finally bolted in the last two weeks for a 100% gain as investors realise the significance of the GCL bid.

My holding in FLX came about from a plane trip three years ago where I talked to the previous CEO for a couple of hours. He told me how he'd managed to change the direction of the company from a grab bag of long shot projects to a meaningful direction in coal. Very convincing. As is the current share price.


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## haemitite (21 April 2007)

Thanks for the continue updates noirua.

I find it quite amusing that while most people have been banging on about uranium, copper and nickel the most commoditised and lowest margin sector, energy coal, has been a huge performer in the past 12 months

FLX up 250%, GCL up a respectable although not earth shattering 50%, and RSP have finally bolted in the last two weeks for a 100% gain as investors realise the significance of the GCL bid.

My holding in FLX came about from a plane trip three years ago where I talked to the previous CEO for a couple of hours. He told me how he'd managed to change the direction of the company from a grab bag of long shot projects to a meaningful direction in coal. Very convincing. As is the current share price.


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## Halba (23 April 2007)

Unbelievable increase in share price. Is it too late to get in?


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## noirua (23 April 2007)

Felix are now just shy of $6.00, up 10 cents to $5.90 this morning.

Xstrata MAY at some stage approach the 2nd and 3rd largest holders of Felix stock, they hold about a 34% interest in Felix Resources. Xstrata would then be forced to bid for FLX.


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## noirua (24 April 2007)

The following link is about two weeks old and shows responses by MD, Mr Brian Flannery, to the continuing demurrage problems out of the Newcastle Port:  http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s1897178.htm


The above being the case we could see a start to mining at Moolarben as late as Autumn of 2009. This is against original estimates of early 2008.

No point mining coal with no third terminal in place.


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## noirua (26 April 2007)

WPG who bought the Felix Iron Ore tenements at Peculiar Knob and Hawks Nest for cash and royalties, reached a high of 72 cents today. WPG are expected to announce results of specific drilling at Hawks Nest where pods of very high grade iron ore had been reported. There is also hope of an upgrade in the high grade iron ore reserves at Peculiar Knob.

Felix holding in WPG is now worth $1.8 million and royalties from iron ore may bring in considerable sums from Early 2008.


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## noirua (30 April 2007)

Felix Resources on Boardroom Radio gives information to date:  http://www.brr.com.au/partner/west/FLX/felix-resources-limited

Speculation ( NSW Mining Warden has yet to give a go ahead for the Moolarben Project and Xstrata have an unresolved dispute at the NSW Supreme Court over their Land within the Moolarben Project area) to date is that Xstrata and Felix may reach an agreement over the land that was purchased by Xstrata on which Mining rights were given to Felix Resources. Xstrata may offer to pay 20% of the mine development costs ( $60 - $65 million ) to obtain a 20% interest in Moolarben and give Felix exclusive rights to entry to the land. The latest analysts report values 20% of Moolarben at approx A$159 million ( including development costs ), and this factor, a difference of $94 - $99 million may be in discussion. 
Xstrata may also be interested in raising the 20% to 49%.


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## noirua (1 May 2007)

Felix Resources bounced back to hit $5.87 at the close after bouncing off the $5.66 low for the day. Only a few cents off the 6.5 year closing high.

The Third Quarterly Results showed better sales of coal from the Ashton & Minerva coal mines.


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## noirua (1 May 2007)

Western Plains Resources (WPG) were placed in "trading halt" this morning pending an announcement. Felix have a share interest in WPG and royalties on iron ore production.


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## noirua (2 May 2007)

Xstrata's largest mines are; Bulga Complex - 8mtpa; Mount Owen - 5mtpa; and Oakley Creek 10mtpa. 
Ownership of the Moolarben Project would make this its largest and lowest cost mine, situated next door to their Ulan Mine in the Hunter Valley.

AMCI taking a 19.25% stake in Felix has made a move more difficult. Despite the current court case, do not rule out behind the scenes moves that could quickly give Xstrata a controlling stake.


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## noirua (3 May 2007)

Felix trade at $5.64 this morning after a weaker trend this week. RIO announced that their subsiduary, Coal & Allied, would be laying off workers on cutbacks at the Newcastle Port to reduce the build up of ships during the rest of 2007. This will also affect others mining out of the Hunter Valley.


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## terminator (3 May 2007)

The newcastle port has advised miners to cut production by 18-20% because of congestion at the port. Coal & Allied has already done this. Will Felix resources follow suit and will this affect the share price?


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## noirua (6 May 2007)

terminator said:


> The newcastle port has advised miners to cut production by 18-20% because of congestion at the port. Coal & Allied has already done this. Will Felix resources follow suit and will this affect the share price?




The share price is already down following annoucements about the cutbacks at Newcastle.

Felix has two mines at Yarrabee and Minerva in Queensland and only the NSW Mines at Ashton, open-cut and Longwall, will be affected. That said, yes, Felix will have to reduce production and that is unfortunate as the Longwall mine has only just started production on its completion.

Felix have not yet made any announcements.


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## haemitite (6 May 2007)

noirua said:


> The share price is already down following annoucements about the cutbacks at Newcastle.
> 
> Felix has two mines at Yarrabee and Minerva in Queensland and only the NSW Mines at Ashton, open-cut and Longwall, will be affected. That said, yes, Felix will have to reduce production and that is unfortunate as the Longwall mine has only just started production on its completion.
> 
> Felix have not yet made any announcements.



This shouldn't affect FLX too much as its only in the production ramp-up phase - planned initial rates would not be high

All should be ok by 2009 when the new port is in operation


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## noirua (7 May 2007)

haemitite said:


> this shouldn't affect FLX too much as its only in the production ramp-up phase - planned initial rates would not be high
> 
> All should be ok by 2009 when the new port is in operation




Hi, I expect the negative phase to continue for a while as Felix may have to reverse their ramp up expectations at the Ashton Mines. The only alternative is to allow stocks to build up and that could be a problem. 


On a lighter note, the Moolarben full valuation is around A$800 to A$900 million or $4.20 to $4.70 a share, without inclusion of a risk factor.   Austock chose a 50% risk factor due to financing, Newcastle Port go-ahead and NSW approval for the mine. Others chose figures down to 25% risk factor.
It can be seen that providing Felix jump all the hurdles well then the risk factor will reduce.

Since the analysts reported some circumstances have changed. The NSW Government has given their approval of the phased expansion of the Newcastle Dock. Xstrata have taken legal action over their land that covers part  of Moolarben.


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## noirua (8 May 2007)

Felix continued the trend downwards closing at A$5.33 in very light trading.

On a small but more cheery note, WPG in which Felix have a stake, moved up to 71 cents. Robert Duffin and Associates took a substantial stake in WPG.  Felix stake is now worth $2 million and they have rights to royalties on production.


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## noirua (10 May 2007)

Felix are now well down on their high point at around $5.90. A combination of profit taking, Newcastle Port set-backs, Xstrata Legal wrangling over Moolarben that is holding up the Mine go-ahead.

On a smaller matter, once again, WPG have seen an announcement that CNN have also increased their substantial stake from 6.3% to 7.6%. Felix (through their 90% owned subsiduary S.A.S.E. ), if all goes to plan, can expect UP TO $8 million return, in a full year, from royalties on iron ore production ( albeit, that present reserves at Peculiar Knob will only last from 7 to 8 years production). A matter of conjecteur and of course, guess work, but, the Felix stake may well be worth UP TO $20 million with their stake holding in WPG also taken into account.


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## noirua (15 May 2007)

Felix Resources have been recovering gradually and trade at $5.25 this morning.

AMCI have completed their purchase of Felix shares from RMM and have converted the options. AMCI have obtained permission to hold more than 14.9% and completed transactions and now hold 19.2% of Felix Resources.


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## noirua (16 May 2007)

Felix trade at $5.45 this morning as we wait for the outcome of the following matters:
1). Payment by the European consortium of $68 million for 49% of the Yarrabee Mine.
2). Information from Felix on any likely cut-back at the Ashton Mines due to the statement given out by the Newcastle Dock.
3) Outcome of the court case; Xstrata, Felix Resources and NSW Mining Warden, concerning the land owned by Xstrata that covers 20% of the Moolarben Project.
4) Decision on the go-ahead for the Felix open-cast mine at Moolarben.


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## noirua (20 May 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix trade at $5.45 this morning as we wait for the outcome of the following matters:
> 1). Payment by the European consortium of $68 million for 49% of the Yarrabee Mine.
> 2). Information from Felix on any likely cut-back at the Ashton Mines due to the statement given out by the Newcastle Dock.
> 3) Outcome of the court case; Xstrata, Felix Resources and NSW Mining Warden, concerning the land owned by Xstrata that covers 20% of the Moolarben Project.
> 4) Decision on the go-ahead for the Felix open-cast mine at Moolarben.





Felix finished trading at $5.34 (Recent high/low $5.90 - $4.98) after uncertainty wobbled the stock. Recovered about a third of losses and this coming week will prove whether this was a dead cat bounce or not.

The four uncertainties are listed above, if they are all cleared in favour of Felix then many may see the stock as cheap. The reverse if the unlikely comes about.


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## noirua (22 May 2007)

After OneSteels announcement on iron ore reserves near Whyalla, Felix will again be looking at the progress of WPG in evaluating their tenements at Peculiar Knob and Hawks Nest near Whyalla. Felix have a share interest and royalties in the area, and sold off the tenements, due to the likelyhood that WPG would get the mining of iron ore going ahead at speed.


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## noirua (24 May 2007)

Felix shareholders will have noticed once again that an announcement by WPG today upgrades the Peculiar Knob tenement to 19.4 million tonnes ( 63.7%fe) and together with Buzzard (60%fe) is now 26.1 million tonnes. This will increase production to 3 mtpa.  Felix hold shares in WPG and royalties on production.


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## noirua (25 May 2007)

Felix Resources closed up 15 cents at $5.28 on their 21.5% interest in the Whyalla project that is managed by Ausmelt; On their JV with Ziniflex. 

This means that Ausmelt's plans to float ADC by 2008 looks very close to fruition.


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## haemitite (26 May 2007)

Citigroup have initaed coverage with a 5.90 target, but Hold recommendation. Their key points below

Initiate with a Hold - Felix offers exposure to the thermal, semi-soft and PCI coal market and significant production and earnings growth over the next three years. Some of the upside has been captured in the share price but single digit PERs and NPV growth await the patient investor. We initiate with a Hold, High Risk (2H) recommendation and a target price of $5.90. 


Moolarben the Key - This mine is expected to produce up to 13mtpa of export and domestic thermal coal from open pit and underground mines at cash costs of ~$30/t in the early years. It will dramatically improve earnings in FY09e and transform Felix's investment fundamentals. Subject to settlement of a dispute, a mining lease should be granted within the next few months. 

Ashton Production Increasing - The Ashton underground mine is being ramped up and should reach the target of ~2mtpa of semi soft coal in the 2007 December half. This additional production and modest coal price increases are the stock's near term profit drivers. 

Mainly Thermal Exposure - Export thermal coal currently accounts for 48% of attributable production with semi-soft at 32% and PCI at 20%.Thermal declines to ~43% in 12 months with semi-soft at 45% but then increases to ~70% with Moolarben in production. 
 Unstable Register - AMCI has recently taken 19.2% of Felix with board and management holding another 41%. Given the appetite for quality coal operations, a bid for the company cannot be dismissed.


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## noirua (27 May 2007)

Most reports by analysts and others forget the value of FLX's other holdings, 21.5% holding in ADC; 2.5% holding in WPG and royalties on iron ore production; and the present sale or royalties on 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal at Phillipson, S.A.


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## noirua (31 May 2007)

FLX have continued up this week, as stock continues to be taken off the fence, and closed today at A$5.70 for another 20 cent lift. 
Felix stock peaked at $5.90 and fell away quickly to $4.95. Following recent excellent iron ore news and Whyalla advancement, the S.A.S.E. (90% owned by Felix) now seems set to be greatly advanced in value by analysts, lest they forgot.


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## Reefer (4 June 2007)

Strong again today Noirua.  Wonder if the Xstrata problem is nearing agreement and is the catalyst for the upward movement??


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## noirua (5 June 2007)

Reefer said:


> Strong again today Noirua.  Wonder if the Xstrata problem is nearing agreement and is the catalyst for the upward movement??




Hi Reefer et al, I can't find out any further information on the Xstrata/Felix/NSW Mining Manager Legal matter, to go before the NSW Supreme Court.

Recent movement may have involved a recent bullish stock review, WPG bullish iron ore results on surveys and Phillipson steaming coal prospects in S.A. There was a large share cross of around 700,000 shares yesterday - Could this be the former MD of Felix unloading?

Recent rally's and future rally's in the Hunter Valley may be on the minds of some. In particular the effects of longwall mining.

Some information, concerning the Moolarben Longwall mine, by protestors, has been presented incorrectly. Stated to be within 200 metres of the Goulburn River when correct information, in the new application, is at least 400 metres from the rivers.

Much of the problems concern the expansion of Xstrata's Ulan Mine by the addition of a 400 metre longwall. Felix have no interest or involvement in the Ulan Mine.


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## noirua (6 June 2007)

Felix Resources are reported by Reuters to be in advanced talks for the sale of 10% of Moolarben to K.E.P.C.O for A$100 million:  http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSSP29413120070605


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## noirua (8 June 2007)

Felix Resources confirmation of talks with KEPCO and others:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070607/pdf/312v9pkkrb0rc6.pdf


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## noirua (12 June 2007)

The Mining case with Xstrata and Mitsubishi, concerning access to land owned by them, for the Ulan Mine, that extends to the Moolarben Project is to start in the NSW Supreme Court on 20th September and week starting 24th Sept 07.

Meanwhile, the holding in WPG becomes more interesting as the stock reaches 89 cents this morning.


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## noirua (13 June 2007)

Felix Resources have been under the cosh last week as speculators on a possible bid probably dumped stock. Steady today, but with all the uncertainty over Moolarben, combined with the year end on June 30th 2007, it's difficult to know what will happen next.


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## noirua (14 June 2007)

Felix have recovered 10 cents this morning, but it looks unconvincing with all the stocks concerns about the Xstrata/ Mitsubishi Legal Matter that is set to be settled as far away as October 2007.  The NSW Mining Warden may well announce a decision, on a Moolarben go-ahead, before the Legal outcome and leave the courts to make the final ruling on the matter.


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## noirua (14 June 2007)

Felix Resources interest in Western Plains Resources (WPG), stock and iron ore royalties, becomes increasingly interesting as they close at an all-time high today at 93.5 cents (price was 20 cents when FLX took an interest last year).

WPG Presentation on Iron Ore interests:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070614/pdf/312y2v0qjmy8n0.pdf


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## noirua (15 June 2007)

noirua said:


> So much has been said about Felix Resource's mines and projects at Yarabbe, Minerva, Ashton and Moolarben.
> 
> One of Felix's best assets is the Athena Exploration Project, owned 55% by Felix and 45% by Soljitz.
> 
> ...





With so many eyes on the Moolarben Project, in the Hunter Valley, some other projects are left forgotten, and that by analysts as well.

Athena, a prospective underground thermal coal mine, is a massive tenement in which Felix has a 51% stake, Soljitz 45% and Kores 4%. Positioned as it is alongside the open-cut Minerva mine.

With two strong partners pushing for an immediate go-ahead, production could reach 4 million tonnes per annum and could raise Felix's estimates of 15 million tonnes per annum of coal under management by 2010, to 19 million tonnes.

An announcement of coal upgrades, from inferred resource, could be announced quite shortly.


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## noirua (19 June 2007)

Felix have continued to weaken today and fell below the $5.00 level. 

Felix seem to be getting as much coal away from Gladstone Port in June as possible - Year ends for FLX on 30th June 2007.

Coal to be exported by FLX during June from the RG Tanna Terminal at Gladstone Port. The coal comes from Felix's mines at Yarrabee and Minerva.

-Ship-..................-Date-..............-Tonnage-............Mine..............
Shin HeirYu.............18/6/2007.........36,900T...............Yarrabee
In Port

Hanjin Portkembia.....16/6/2007.........124,300T.............Minerva
Left Port

Hyundai Oceana191..19/6/2007.........13,600T...............Yarrabee
In Port

Gina Iuliano.............19/6/2007.........30,000T...............Yarrabee

China Excellence023..19/6/2007........17,000T...............Yarrabee

Amber Halo
Left Port.................7/6/2007..........22,000T...............Yarrabee

New Joy.................25/6/2007........135,000T...............Minerva


Total Tonnage for June - 378,700 tonnes. ( Minerva and Yarrabee mines )


Felix in their last Quarterly Report  ( 9 months ) showed that 849,000 tonnes of coal had been sold from their mines at Minerva, Ashton and Yarrabee, in the last three months. Sales for the first 9 months were 2,680,000 tonnes of coal.


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## noirua (20 June 2007)

Felix Resources Lignite interests in Ballymoney, Northern Ireland, have had the issue of mining licenses suspended until November 2007. Prospects of any go-ahead has now been put back until 2009/10. The main opposition has come from the ruling DUP, now in Government.

The latest comments are as follows and are sometime ago: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/imported/article969822.ece

"Lignite in Ballymoney":  http://www.geographyinaction.co.uk/Issues/Lignite.html

"Lignite in Ballymoney, arguments against":  http://www.geographyinaction.co.uk/Issues/Lignite_anti.html

The ruling DUP Party comments on Lignite in County Antrim North: http://www.dup.org.uk/CanProfile.asp?CandidateID=145


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## noirua (20 June 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources Lignite interests in Ballymoney, Northern Ireland, have had the issue of mining licenses suspended until November 2007. Prospects of any go-ahead has now been put back until 2009/10. The main opposition has come from the ruling DUP, now in Government.
> 
> 
> The ruling DUP Party comments on Lignite in County Antrim North: http://www.dup.org.uk/CanProfile.asp?CandidateID=115


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## noirua (20 June 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources Lignite interests in Ballymoney, Northern Ireland, have had the issue of mining licenses suspended until November 2007. Prospects of any go-ahead has now been put back until 2009/10. The main opposition has come from the ruling DUP, now in Government.
> 
> 
> The ruling DUP Party comments on Lignite in County Antrim North: http://www.dup.org.uk/CanProfile.asp?CandidateID=115





The above link included an error and has therefore been corrected. It now takes you to the view expressed by the DUP concerning Lignite mining in North County Antrim. Apologies for duplicated post.


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## noirua (21 June 2007)

Felix finished down at $4.95 yesterday with trading near 1 million shares. 
750,000 shares went through in small blocks of 25,000 and 50,000, all at $5.95 and at the end of the trading day. 

This seemed not to be a matched trade.

In the last 12 months the larger shareholders added stock. 

Gaffwick Pty added 2,300,000 and now hold 29,948,706 - 15.3%,
Ilwella Pty added 2,250,000 and now hold 29,450,000 - 15.0%,
Fibora Pty added 1,325,000 and now hold 14,550,000 - 7.4%,
Leopold Station added 750,000 and now hold 9,700,000 -4.9%,
Remond Pty added 750,000 and now hold 9,700,000 - 4.9%,
Covelane Pty reduced by 742,033 and now hold 3,733,800 - 1.9%.

( AMCI hold 19.2% of Felix; Purchased from RMM recently.)


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## noirua (23 June 2007)

In the last few days, numerous blocks of shares from 50,000 to 150,000 have gone through the market and always sold as a complete block.

A shareholder, Clovelane Pty., had reduced their holding in Felix before, and are thought to have sold about 1.5 million shares since Thursday, priced between $4.93 and $5.02. They probably hold about 2.2 million shares after Fridays transactions.


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## porkpie324 (23 June 2007)

You have answered my bewilderment this week with FLX there was some strange quotes being placed and withdrawn, I took a long pos on FLX Thursday I was expecting a quick SP rise going on the buy quotes, then the quotes were withdrawn then placed back very confusing. I did consider closing but still regard FLX as a hold. porkpie


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## noirua (23 June 2007)

Yes, there is still a lot of interest in Felix Resources despite 67% of the companies shares being in the hands of 7 companies. Other holders are unclear as they hold via nominees and only have to announce themselves if they reach 5%.

I wonder how many of the top shareholders are willing to consider an offer for their holding? RMM ducked out quickly for $5.00 a share and I notice they may have needed cash for a deal in New Zealand.


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## noirua (23 June 2007)

Felix Resources use the RG Tanna Terminal at the Port of Gladstone to ship thermal and semi-soft coking coal from their Mines at Yarrabee and Minerva.

Here is a link about the "Port of Gladstone":  http://www.networkaccess.qr.com.au/Images/portgladstone_tcm10-11869.pdf

Not to forget the terrible storm at Newcastle and Lower Hunter Valley, where Felix ship coal from their Ashton mines:  http://www.metacafe.com/watch/665476/newcastle_storm_australia


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## noirua (1 July 2007)

As the Consmin plans widen and AMCI and Xstrata continue to face each other in interests in the Hunter Valley; Many may now wonder how and where the complexities that are Felix Resources fit into the pattern - @ What wondrous webs we weave.

Will the major shareholders of Felix meet to hash together an aggreement that will move all the assets of Felix Resources into "Consmin"?


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## noirua (2 July 2007)

Felix stock rose 26 cents to $5.36 as they confirmed a J/V agreement with the Japanese Company Sojitz for a 10% interest in the Moolarben Project.

Sojitz will pay Felix A$90 million and will contribute approximately A$30 million towards development costs. 

Felix are in further talks with Asian Companies to sell a further 10% interest.

This sale confirms a developed valuation for the Moolarben project at A$900 million ( $4.80 a share ).


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## noirua (4 July 2007)

An interview with Mr Brian Flannery, MD, Felix Resources about the J/V with Kores and the Moolarben Project: http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/24862

( Unfortunately this interview is extremely poor when compared with BRR Radio's usual standards, a high pitch echo etc., )


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## noirua (4 July 2007)

noirua said:


> An interview with Mr Brian Flannery, MD, Felix Resources about the J/V with Kores and the Moolarben Project: http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/24862




From the above interview it looks as if Felix Resources have decided to have three partners, holding a total of a 30% interest. This should bring in $270 million plus $90 million towards the $300 million development costs. 

The Ashton Longwall Mine, completed early this year, appears to be going well and that despite the Newcastle Port problems. 

The FLX year ended on 30th June 2007 and preliminary Annual Results should be out in three weeks time.


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## porkpie324 (4 July 2007)

Appears to be profit taking with FLX, looks as if it crept in yesterday and carrying on today, can't see any significant support either at the mo.porkpie


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## noirua (5 July 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> Appears to be profit taking with FLX, looks as if it crept in yesterday and carrying on today, can't see any significant support either at the mo.porkpie




Hi porkpie, Yes, fair comment and probably right. Still, I hold a lot of stock and remain enthusiastic with Japanese, Chinese and Korean interest in Moolarben.

The recent interest by Kores in a purchase of 10% of Moolarben for $90 million, plus a share of development cost, puts an asset value of $900 million on the Moolarben Project. Other interested parties may treble the above sum.

Felix Resources have about 196 million shares in issue at $5.32, and this makes a market cap. of $1.01 billion.

Felix assets, taking account of debt, past losses used against profits and cash in the bank, value Felix at about $1.4 billion. That is without any allowance for perceived risk on the Moolarben Project. ( That risk is made up of financing, $300 million for development, unresolved court case with Xstrata/Mitsubishi in September and awaited go-ahead for open-cut and longwall mines.) )


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## porkpie324 (5 July 2007)

Looks like some support coming in this morning, I have placed a small CFD order in at $5.27, had a nice trade last week picked up 5000 at 4.87 4.90 closed Mon/Tue at 5.36/ 5.31, don't open to many of FLX as thinly traded.porkpie


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## noirua (6 July 2007)

Felix have announced that the binding agreement with CRC to purchase 49% of the Yarrabee mine for A$68 million has fallen through. CRC failed to raise the funds.

Felix are in talks with two of its PCI customers who are interested in taking a stake in the mine.


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## noirua (6 July 2007)

Felix closed up 39 cents at $5.74, a high for the week, and up $1.16 from the low point about two weeks ago. The 4 year high stands at $5.90, this year and a years low of $1.68, all-time high was $13.50 in 2000 and low point, 38 cents in 2003.

The past few weeks have been particularly encouraging with the Kores agreement over Moolarben and interest from other countries from China, Japan and Asia. Hopes are that $90 million towards development costs will be paid by companies taking a thirty per cent interest and $270 million will be banked by Felix in extra purchase arrangements,

The Yarrabee mine is confirmed as having further interested parties and should raise in excess of $68 million for a 49% interest.

Comment by MD, Mr Brian Flannery, on further possible interests in India, (referring to 19.2% shareholder, AMCI's comments) as added to favourable comments on Felix Resources this week.


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## noirua (12 July 2007)

There are still some concerns over Felix Resources, jewel in the crown, The Moolarben Project. Financing problems seem all but secure now and concerns over the NSW Mining Wardens go-ahead delay, the Xstrata/Mitsubishi court matter and hold-up due to waiting for expansion of the Newcastle Port, appear to be the small stumbling blocks.

Moolarben will be worth $1.2 billion with all the above out of the way. ( Price worked out by Kores accepted bid of A$90 million and about a further $30 million towards development. )  Felix MD felt in his last broadcast that the $1.2 billion price would be raised substantially once the mine was operating.

The Yarrabee Mine is valued at about $140 million (taking the original offer of A$68 million for 49%), the other main asset of Minerva and Athena, is worth around $140 million to Felix who own a 51% interest ( taking the purchase by Kores of 15% for A$35 million ) and Ashton mines are seen to be worth around $120 million for Felix's 55% stake.

Felix stock is valued at $1.1 billion at $5.60 a share.


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## noirua (14 July 2007)

Felix Resources continued the advance and went through the $6.00 level for the first time, hitting $6.17, before closing at $5.99, a 4 year closing high.

Estimates of profits for the low cost thermal open-cut mine at Moolarben has captured the imagination. Eventual production will reach 6 mtpa with costs around Aus$30 per tonne and current thermal coal for 2008 looking like reaching Aus$72 per tonne ( US$62 per tonne ). The underground mine should follow with production at 4 mtpa. Anything can happen in the years ahead and risk factors have to be added in.


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## Sean K (14 July 2007)

Pretty good breakout. What's the story with the volume? Is this correct? Looks pretty minimal. Only a few shares on issue? Maybe just looks like that because of the Mar spike.


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## noirua (14 July 2007)

kennas said:


> Pretty good breakout. What's the story with the volume? Is this correct? Looks pretty minimal. Only a few shares on issue? Maybe just looks like that because of the Mar spike.





Hi Kennas, There are 196 million shares in issue and about 140 million are very tightly held by 7 companies and several of the seven have links to each other. AMCI ( A large American private company ) bought a 19.2% stake from RMM for $5.00 a share about 6 months ago and this was seen as a blocking move as Xstrata were rumoured to be considering a bid. 
Since then, Xstrata seem to have got the hump - in the view of many - and have taken Felix and NSW Mining Warden to the NSW Supreme court over access to Felix's Moolarben Project, cited as a move to hold up the project.

Some think that Xstrata may make a move on Felix at any time to stop the sell-off of percentage stakes in Moolarben. As three major shareholders have 50% of Felix Resources, excluding AMCI, this is seen as Xstrata's likely route.


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## SevenFX (14 July 2007)

I must be drawing dots n lines just for the sake of them, as I have no knowledge or interests in this stock.

But would like to have had, when it was back at $1.85


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## noirua (14 July 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources continued the advance and went through the $6.00 level for the first time, hitting $6.17, before closing at $5.99, a 4 year closing high.
> 
> Estimates of profits for the low cost thermal open-cut mine at Moolarben has captured the imagination. Eventual production will reach 6 mtpa with costs around Aus$30 per tonne and current thermal coal for 2008 looking like reaching Aus$72 per tonne ( US$62 per tonne ). The underground mine should follow with production at 4 mtpa. Anything can happen in the years ahead and risk factors have to be added in.




Eventual production at Moolarben open-cut mine should read 9 mtpa ( million tonnes per annum ) and not 6 mtpa.

Profits at 9mtpa would indicate forward profits EBIT $378 million p.a. for the open-cut mine. There would be reductions for Royalties to the NSW Government that may be around $18 - $22 million p.a. and Shipping/demurrage costs.

In an earlier post I said Kores had purchased a 10% stake in Moolarben. It was infact Soljitz of Japan.


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## noirua (25 July 2007)

Felix are suffering from very light trading, in the last week, as this tightly held stock causes concern. Near everyone appears to be waiting for Xstrata to move.

AMCI set a price of $5.00 as they purchased RMM's 19.2% stake some months back.


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## porkpie324 (25 July 2007)

I opened a small pos yesrerday at 5.36, buying on the stochastic looking o/sold, has done me well of late, although had a bad one on the13/06 pos, but really coined it on the26/27 june positions(2) with stoch divergence, closed both 5.65 6 july.porkpie


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## noirua (26 July 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> I opened a small pos yesrerday at 5.36, buying on the stochastic looking o/sold, has done me well of late, although had a bad one on the13/06 pos, but really coined it on the26/27 june positions(2) with stoch divergence, closed both 5.65 6 july.porkpie





The present position for Felix Resources may well show you have timed this one brilliantly. Felix results are due at any moment and should show production way up on last years, prices obtained for all coals will have risen dramatically in the second half. Currency strength and Newcastle Port restrictions will not have helped results but FLX are in a very strong position despite this.

It's all about 2008 and cash should come piling in from asset sales and profits from the three mines at Yarrabee, Minerva and Ashton open-cut & Longwall.

In addition takeover rumours persist about interest from Xstrata and the Moolarben Mine go-ahead will spur Felix on further.


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## noirua (29 July 2007)

Felix remain fairly solid at $5.52 on Friday night. Trading was stronger with about 5 trades being more interesting than usual, FLX trading being usually very light, and these appear to be matched trades being put through the ASX.

There may be a lot of nervousness amongst the Board and major holders of stock, as they perceive a sudden announcement that a few holders may accept an offer from Xstrata - there are no announcements anywhere that anyone has been approached as yet. The position of AMCI with 19.2% remains interesting on the basis that adding more stock could be in their minds. Many have added to their holdings in the last 12 months and may be doing so now.

A UK broker, Hargreaves Lansdowne, have sent further letters to UK holders of stock offering to sell their holding without commission. They, Hargreaves Lansdown, were floated on the LSE recently and are now amongst the largest UK brokers.


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## porkpie324 (29 July 2007)

Interesting trading on Friday FLX posted a SP increase on 966k shares traded (3 times average), and that was with a very bear market, so even though I have just a small position it helped in otherwise a very bad day (for me that is). porkpie


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## noirua (30 July 2007)

Felix Resources retain a royalty position on production from the Western Plains Resources, Iron Ore Tenements, through their 90% owned subsiduary S.A.S.E. (Ausmelt and Krakatau Steel each own a 5% stake).

Excellent news from WPG this morning in their latest Quarterly Report shows that their is 19 million tonnes of 63.7% high grade ore at Peculiar Knob.

9.1 million tonnes of 60.1% high grade iron ore at the Buzzard Tenement.

Buzzard East and Kite South, in Hawks Nest, have found two separate high grade deposits of iron ore.

AS time goes by this is gradually becoming a major find as previous surveys show up to 800 million tonnes of various grades of iron ore on Hawks Nest.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070730/pdf/313p25g3dhbd4z.pdf


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## noirua (31 July 2007)

Felix Resources 4th Quarterly report is now more than a week overdue. The shares continue their recovery this morning with a rise to $5.82. Trading is brisk this morning compared with the usual average.


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## porkpie324 (31 July 2007)

I noticed that this morning on my CFD platform, quote at 5.81 but nothing much below until 5.70, so closed my 2 pos at 5.81, took a reasonable gain, so now wait again until possible SP pressure.porkpie


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## noirua (31 July 2007)

Fourth Quarterly Report for the year ending 30th June 2007:http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070731/pdf/313qgk9rcl9wxt.pdf


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## noirua (1 August 2007)

noirua said:


> Fourth Quarterly Report for the year ending 30th June 2007:http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070731/pdf/313qgk9rcl9wxt.pdf




These fourth quarterly results, yet again, show that big profits are still just around the corner for Felix Resources. The strong Aussie Dollar and the storm at the Newcastle Port, will have left profits lower than expected, as MD Mr Brian Flannery appears to indicate. That may mean a dividend of around 5 cents, up from 4 cents last year, as the growth importance is the main factor here.

THe Yarrabee agreement to sell 49% for $68 million fell apart as Felix gave up waiting for funds to be raised. Now further talks continue to sell 49% of Yarrabee, this time, to Japanese, Korean or Chinese partners who will also guarantee taking up agreements to purchase coal. Better in the long run for Felix and the money should roll in during the latter part of 2007.

Expenditure in expanding reserves, just over $1 million, appears well spent as a further uplift in coal reserves at Moolarben takes it to 615 million tonnes. The mine should remain in operation far longer than expected and production may be pushed up well beyond indicated figures of 10 million tonnes per annum to nearer 13 mtpa. The 10% interest purchased by Soljitz of Japan, conditions attached, will bring in $90 million and reduce felix expenditure on development from around $300 million to $270 million. Felix are in further talks with prospective partners to sell a further 20% interest. 
This could nean that FLX's target for 15mtpa under management by 2010 to be very conservative.
Further increases in reserves can be expected for Yarrabee, Ashton and Athena.

THe interests in iron ore, through royalties, will add to profits, starting in 2008. The Phillipson coal position should lead to further royalties from coal production further down the line, 2010 onwards. The ADC interest of 21.5%, managers Ausmelt, could lead to a flotation or issue of Ausmelt stock to Felix in 2008.


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## noirua (3 August 2007)

Felix Resources trade at $5.79 this morning, up 27 cents. The trading remains fairly light when compared with similar stocks and this may well be the reason for some quite big price movements.

Felix await news on sales of 20% of Moolarben and 49% of Yarrabee, that are expected fairly shortly.


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## noirua (4 August 2007)

Felix Resources strength and nervousness comes from Moolarben. Soljitz $90 million purchase plus about $30 million towards development, for 10% of the project,  puts a price on Moolarben of $1.2 billion, or $6.12 a share. The nervousness is the need for a go-ahead both for the open-cut and longwall mines, and the court case to be heard at the end of September in the NSW Supreme Court, Xstrata/Mitsubishi versus the NSW Mining Warden, is the reason for it.

Other assets of Felix are worth around $350 million to give a total asset value of about $7.90 a share. In addition, Felix have previous losses to be set against tax of around $100 million and cash in the bank of about $70 - $90 million.


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## noirua (7 August 2007)

Felix Resources correction that coal sold was 3,691,000 tonnes, up 22%,  and produced was 3,722,000 tonnes, up 28%:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070807/pdf/313vdk75zs58b7.pdf


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## noirua (9 August 2007)

Felix have recovered during the week after being affected by the general decline in the mining sector and are just 2 cents down on last Fridays' close at $5.77.
The court case over Moolarben ( Ulan Mining (owned 90% Xstrata, 10% Mitsubishi) are trying to prevent their land (covering 20% of Moolarben) being used by Felix Resources as access to their proposed open-cut mines at Moolarben ) starts in seven weeks time on 21st September and should be concluded in October.


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## noirua (10 August 2007)

Felix still have to complete all their fund raising for Moolarben.  Debts and cash in the bank should be even, leaving a further $300 million to find for development.

49% of Yarrabee should eventually be sold and yield $68 million. Soljitz will provide $90 million and their share of development costs for Moolarben, around $30 million. Talks continue to sell two more blocks of shares.

From the above, Felix are not quite in the clear on development costs at Moolarben. I remain very confident but post the risks in this credit crunch period. Hopefully Felix will reel in good profits in the year ending in 2008.


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## noirua (11 August 2007)

Quite a chunk of the invested part of my portfolio is in Felix Resources. One part of me says hold-on and the other, start reducing. 

The recovery in the US$ will put a smile on the face of good olde MD, Mr Brian Flannery. 

Perhaps our MD should also be looking to accept Xstrata as a partner in Moolarben and stop this court case in its tracks. 

A few think the joining together of the Moolarben Open-cut and longwall Project with the Open-cut and Longwall Ulan mines would be a good commonsense arrangement.


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## noirua (14 August 2007)

Taking a chance, I added a few Felix Resources shares on Monday. Prices for thermal coal have risen from the 2006 peak of US$54 a metric tonne to US$72.37 on the spot market out of Newcastle.

The Moolarben project was valued at roughly A$1.2 billion and this price MAY now look cheap in the light of Asia's scramble for thermal coal. Some guesses see thermal coal heading for US$100 per tonne.

At the close yesterday, Felix traded at A$5.53 for a market capitalisation of A$1.09 billion.

The following link outlines the coal situation at the Newcastle Dock:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axTy1Kg5XA7M&refer=home


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## noirua (15 August 2007)

It's at times like these that I'm glad I kept to my self imposed rule to keep share investments at no more than 30% of my portfolio. 
Felix Resources plunged like many in the sector and finished at $5.13, about a dollar below their 2007 high.
Only encouragement for Felix is the dive in the Aussie ag'in the Greenback, now at AUS$1.22.  Thermal coal prices remain strong and this has to be a good for Felix profits from here.


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## noirua (16 August 2007)

Felix Resources seem to have bottomed out and trade at $4.84, down 29 cents. Quite an acceptable performance considering today has become "The Great Slide", afterall was said in hopes the problems were over.

As said before, the Aussie Dollar is slipping back against the Greenback and thoughts of interest rate rises have been put in the bottom drawer. My thinking is, that the A$ will go back to A$1.35 to the greenback - this will be excellent news for miners.

This great drop in stocks is well overdone, IMHO.


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## noirua (17 August 2007)

Felix Resources managed to close at $5.12 on Thursday. Trading continues light and the complication over the legal case with Xstrata remains one of the deciding factors.
FLX have been the strongest Aussie coal stock in the last 12 months and should be helped by the decline of the Aussie Dollar. All mining sectors are watching future commodity prices.


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## noirua (23 August 2007)

Felix stock trade around $5 and are beset with concerns over Moolarbens go-ahead or nay. If the court case falls soundly into Felix's corner, then all is well and this stock may well be go on up with other parties ploughing cash in. Any problems and the reverse is the case. So Felix stock is set to be nervous in the usual light trading until October.


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## noirua (25 August 2007)

The Moolarben Court Case moves ever closer and Xstrata have seen fit to put their case in The Financial Times last Thursday.

Xstrata try to explain why others should not develop New Coalmines in NSW whilst forgetting, the fact, that they themselves have only recently opened their Longwall Mine at the Ulan Mine in the Hunter Valley.


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## noirua (29 August 2007)

Felix stock has only held up fairly well and trade a tad below $5. Announcement in the next few weeks will show how much profit was made in the financial year ending June 30th, 2007. ABN Amro forecast profits after tax of $41 million, but the Aussie rose relentlessly and may have cut profits back closer to $38 million. A dividend of around 5 to 6 cents is expected, against 4 cents last time.

Profits in year ending June 30th, 2008, should be boosted by a full years production at the Minerva Mine and the Ashton Longwall mine. Increased prices will also help and profits should increase to $70 to $90 million (this range falls into the estimates by three analysts last January), depending on the Greenbacks strength.

Moolarben is unlikely to come into production, IMHO, until early 2009, as constraints at the Newcastle dock will not be fully relieved by the extensions planned, until then. 

Xstrata have published an article that says that problems at the Newcastle Dock are worsening. This link shows that to be incorrect as ships waiting have dropped to 54 and a new loader will be added in 2008 to improve this position further:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aK5blvaUfe3g&refer=energy


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## noirua (31 August 2007)

Felix Resources Preliminary Annual Results show after tax profits at $47.2 million, up 37% on last year. The dividend is raised 50% to 6 cents and earnings per share rose to 25.19c from 16.71c.  MD, Mr Brian Flannery is upbeat on profits and prospects for the Y/E 2008.

$20 million has been received from Soljitz and is the first tranche of the $90 million to be paid by 2008 for a 10% stake in the Moolarben project. Soljitz will also pay their share of development costs. Felix are in talks to sell a further 10% stake to a Korean company.


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## noirua (1 September 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources Preliminary Annual Results show after tax profits at $47.2 million, up 37% on last year. The dividend is raised 50% to 6 cents and earnings per share rose to 25.19c from 16.71c.  MD, Mr Brian Flannery is upbeat on profits and prospects for the Y/E 2008.
> 
> $20 million has been received from Soljitz and is the first tranche of the $90 million to be paid by 2008 for a 10% stake in the Moolarben project. Soljitz will also pay their share of development costs. Felix are in talks to sell a further 10% stake to a Korean company.




HI everyone, Just to correct some information.  The $20 million has been paid to Felix Resources, but this agreement was on 6/7/2007 and was not therefore included in the accounts for the year ending 30/6/2007.


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## noirua (1 September 2007)

Felix Resources mention, interestingly, that they are involved in Detailed Mine Planning and Feasibility studies that have been completed on a coal mine in India and are presently in discussions with an Indian Group on a possible 50/50 Joint Venture to develop and supply coal to a Domestic PowerStation.


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## michael_selway (2 September 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources mention, interestingly, that they are involved in Detailed Mine Planning and Feasibility studies that have been completed on a coal mine in India and are presently in discussions with an Indian Group on a possible 50/50 Joint Venture to develop and supply coal to a Domestic PowerStation.




Hey GCL, CEY, MCC, RSP look quite attractive now?

What do you think?

thx

MS

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 19.7 17.3 85.7% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 32.2 10.6 63.4% 

CEY - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 19.7 32.2 51.4 
DPS 8.0 10.0 13.0 19.9 *


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## noirua (7 September 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hey GCL, CEY, MCC, RSP look quite attractive now?
> 
> What do you think?
> 
> ...





Hi m_s, longtime no hear, well, FLX have had quite a fright with a 27% fall but have rebounded back to $5.20 - a buyer has appeared, so it seems. Holding a lot of stock and this one has to come right.

CEY are my favourite coal stock now with the Anvil Hill go-ahead. Increased my holding.

GCL have taken a pounding after every man and his dog took a stake and Xstrata wobbled. Recovering, should have sold but didn't, one of the few coal stocks with hard coking coal reserves. 

MCC have had a bit of a surprising downer in the last results. Not sure what will happen here. 

RSP: Not following this one.


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## Reefer (7 September 2007)

Announcement out also.  Moolarben go ahead so long as Felix retains the rights.  This will fly again if the court decision is favourable.

07 September 2007
Australian Stock Exchange
Company Announcements
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
FELIX RECEIVES DEVELOPMENT CONSENT FOR THE MOOLARBEN COAL PROJECT
Felix is pleased to advise that the NSW Minister for Planning, The Hon Frank Sartor MP late yesterday issued the development consent for the new Moolarben Coal Project located near Mudgee on the Ulan-Muswellbrook rail line.
Managing Director, Brian Flannery said this is significant milestone towards starting construction of this world class resource.
This approval signifies the Government’s strong support for the company’s project which will create 320 new employment positions in both open-cut and underground mines.
Construction is due to commence in the first half of 2008.
As a part of the development consent conditions Felix has also agreed to contribute several million dollars to upgrading the local road networks.
The approval allows Felix to produce 10 million tonnes of saleable coal per year most of which will be exported through the Port of Newcastle where the existing coal terminal facilities are being expanded and a new terminal is due to commence construction later this year.
Mr. Flannery said, development of Moolarben will benefit all stakeholders, generating local employment opportunities, contributions to NSW through royalties, and increased returns to Felix shareholders.
Contact details for further information
Brian Flannery David Knappick
Managing Director Chief Financial Officer Felix


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## Reefer (7 September 2007)

Error in post. Go ahead is firm regardless of who retains Moolarben rights.  If Felix we should rebound pretty quickly.


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## noirua (8 September 2007)

Reefer said:


> Announcement out also.  Moolarben go ahead so long as Felix retains the rights.  This will fly again if the court decision is favourable.
> 
> 07 September 2007
> Australian Stock Exchange
> ...




Following this announcement, cheers reefer, many analysts will be looking closely at the costs and profitability - original costs were given at Aus$30 per tonne for the open-cut mine with eventual production at 6mtpa.

Xstrata may be holding out to get the maximum possible for their land that covers 20% of Moolarben. Look however, for a sale agreement for up to 20% of Moolarben to Xstrata that includes the land as a gift to Felix for the life of the Moolarben open-cut mine.

Kores, the Korean company that owns 4% of Minerva and Athena, are favourites to take a 10% stake in Moolarben.
This would leave Felix with a 60% interest in the mine, about A$360 million banked and 40% of the A$300 million costs covered by those taking an interest.

Felix have further interests in exploration at North Yarrabee, Athena, Ashton, Central South Australia and India. Development of the UCC Harry Brandt mine and interest in the expansion of the Newcastle Port.
Felix other interests of note, are in the ADC venture with managers, Ausmelt; Royalties in iron ore production in South Australia; and shares in Western Plains Resources.


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## noirua (10 September 2007)

Felix Resources are down 10 cents at $5.10 after moving lower early on.  Fresh from the go-ahead at Moolarben, a low cost mine with waste ratio at 2.7:1.  This will grow profits and cash should pour in to buy interests in the mine. Felix may well be set to move against any downturn in markets, imho.


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## michael_selway (13 September 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, longtime no hear, well, FLX have had quite a fright with a 27% fall but have rebounded back to $5.20 - a buyer has appeared, so it seems. Holding a lot of stock and this one has to come right.
> 
> CEY are my favourite coal stock now with the Anvil Hill go-ahead. Increased my holding.
> 
> ...




Hi Noirua 

CEY gone nuts, looks like on the road for glory and growth now

*CEY - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 19.2 39.6 51.4 
DPS 8.0 9.0 13.0 19.9 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 19.2 18.8 81.0% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 39.6 9.1 106.2% *

FLX actually has good number too, do you know if they have a limited mine life or not?

*RSP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 21.4 44.1 110.5 
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 19.5

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 21.4 24.3 172.6% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 44.1 11.8 106.1% *

GCL look good at current price i think, someon will eventually step up and buy it at $5 plus

*GCL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 25.0 48.2 62.7 
DPS 14.0 13.0 24.0 26.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 25.0 16.9 9.6% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 48.2 8.8 92.8% *

MCC isnt too bad as well, altough may be a bit pricy now. But again, it should be taken over eventually. Sm as RSP as well I guess

*MCC - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 33.0 65.8 80.9 
DPS 18.0 16.4 32.5 40.5 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 33.0 20.4 19.5% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 65.8 10.2 99.4% *

*RSP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 2.7 16.5 27.0 22.5 
DPS 0.0 0.0 8.7 11.1 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 16.5 10.0 518.0% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 27.0 6.1 63.6% *

thx

MS


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## noirua (15 September 2007)

Hi m_s et al, FLX's Moolarben Project has an official mine life of 21 years ( the same as CEY's Anvil Hill prospect ) that is expected to run-out to 30 years or more.

The Moolarben open-cut mine is expected to have development started in the second quarter of 2008 and should be a producer in 2009, as the Newcastle Port expansion is ready. Production should reach 2 million tonnes in the year ending June 2009, 4 million tonnes in year ending June 2010, rising to 6 million tonnes in year ending June 2011. 

The Moolarben underground longwall mines should reach 1 million tonnes production in year ending June 2010, 2 million tonnes production in year ending June 2011, rising to 4 million tonnes in the year ending June 2012. 

I believe the eventual production from open-cut and longwall mines is expected to reach 13 mtpa.

There are some more bullish figures on earlier production available, but the Newcastle Port restrictions are likely to stifle these.


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## noirua (15 September 2007)

More good news for Felix Resources as thermal coal prices rise:  http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_business.php?id=284884


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## noirua (16 September 2007)

Next Thursday, 20th September 2007, the court case concerning Moolarben Mining (90% owned by Felix Resources and 10% by Soljitz of Japan) and Ulan Mining (90% owned by Xstrata and 10% by Mitsubishi) starts at the NSW Supreme Court.

The court case concerns the 20% Ulan Mining owned land that represents 20% of the Moolarben Mining Project.

Felix were given a go-ahead by the NSW Government for the open-cut mine and longwall mines at Moolarben, last week.


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## noirua (17 September 2007)

Felix Resources are in an excellent position with their thermal and semi-soft coking coal reserves. Attributable coal is forecast by MD Mr Brian Flannery, for Y/E 30/6/2008, to reach around 5 million tonnes.

Felix contracts, until end of March 2008, are set at around US$53 - 54 a tonne. Forecasts are for US$68 and US$74 for thermal and semi-soft coking coal respectively, from 1st April 2008. Felix are now selling excess thermal coal into the spot market.

The following link gives forecasts for thermal and semi-soft coking coal going forward:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a8YMbcnrxygs&refer=asia


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## noirua (18 September 2007)

Felix jumped to $5.38 on the back of Xstrata's purchase of Anvil Hill from Centennial.

FLX stock is so tightly held it would require a bid over $7.00 to have any chance of success. More likely Xstrata is looking for a percentage stake in Moolarben, after the court case, starting this Thursday in the NSW Supreme Court, is completed.


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## noirua (19 September 2007)

Felix fell back a little as the news of Xstrata's purchase of Cenennial's Anvil Hill prospect sank in. Basically, Centennial were in a pickle and needed cash desperately.

As to an unlikely takeover bid for Felix Resources, we can only realistically look for the likes of BHP Billiton to make a bid for the company. The foreign usurper, Xstrata, are so anti Moolarben, note the court case starting Thursday, it would be a sad day to see them take an interest, either in Moolarben or in Felix.


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## noirua (19 September 2007)

Felix Resources are expected to announce that they have sold a 10% interest in their Moolarben Project to Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) for AUS$100 million. 

This report was originally mentioned in June by Reuters in an interview with KEPCO General Manager of Project Development, Mr Lee Sang-Pal.


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## michael_selway (19 September 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix fell back a little as the news of Xstrata's purchase of Cenennial's Anvil Hill prospect sank in. Basically, Centennial were in a pickle and needed cash desperately.
> 
> As to an unlikely takeover bid for Felix Resources, we can only realistically look for the likes of BHP Billiton to make a bid for the company. The foreign usurper, Xstrata, are so anti Moolarben, note the court case starting Thursday, it would be a sad day to see them take an interest, either in Moolarben or in Felix.




So you think Xstrata will unlikely ever yo make a takover offer for FLX?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 20.5 44.1 110.5 
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 15.9 *


thx

MS


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## noirua (19 September 2007)

michael_selway said:


> So you think Xstrata will unlikely ever yo make a takover offer for FLX?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...





Hi, Xstrata have had a close interest in Felix and Moolarben for a very longtime. Some think that Xstrata was very slow in moving and let AMCI get RMM's 19.2% stake at $5.00 a share. I think they new that most of the stock is tightly held and about half the remainder is owned by individuals in the UK, Southern Ireland and Germany. A controlling bid, would have to have been around $7.00 to $8.00 a share to be successful. Somehow I doubt Xstrata have the resolve to go for it at these levels.


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## noirua (21 September 2007)

The problems at the Port of Newcastle, NSW, are continuing after Xstrata's proposed purchase of the Anvil Hill prospective thermal coalmine, from Centennial Coal.

The Xstrata legal action against the NSW mining managers wish to transfer their land, within the Moolaraben Project, to Felix Resources, continues at the NSW Supreme Court.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22447484-5005200,00.html


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## noirua (25 September 2007)

Annual Report of Felix Resources for the Year Ending 30th June 2007 (68 page download):

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070925/pdf/314qvvgkp6m4cp.pdf


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## noirua (26 September 2007)

noirua said:


> Annual Report of Felix Resources for the Year Ending 30th June 2007 (68 page download):
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070925/pdf/314qvvgkp6m4cp.pdf




Looking through the Annual report it can be seen why MD Mr Brian Flannery is so upbeat about prospects for Felix Resources in the year ending 2008 and thereafter.

Expenditure will drop from a A$93 million figure in Y/E 2007 to about A$73 million in Y/E 2008.

Both the Minerva Mine and Ashton Longwall have overcome problems and a larger shovel has been installed at Yarrabee. All three mines should work to full capacity in the coming year (Coal production is expected to rise by around 23% in Y/E 2008).
Excess production of thermal and semi-soft coking coal from Yarrabee and minerva is being sold at spot prices. These prices range up to US$70 per tonne for thermal and US$76 per tonne for semi-soft coking coal.

Thermal coal agreements from 1st April 2007 were set at very much higher levels, low US$50's per tonne, and these prices will impact profits until 31st March 2008. Prices after this date are expected to be set  higher in the US$60's per tonne for thermal.

Felix are in negotiations with KEPCO and are expected to announce an agreement to sell 10% of Moolarben for A$100 million. Talks continue to sell 49% of Yarrabee and a figure around A$68 million is expected.


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## michael_selway (26 September 2007)

noirua said:


> Looking through the Annual report it can be seen why MD Mr Brian Flannery is so upbeat about prospects for Felix Resources in the year ending 2008 and thereafter.
> 
> Expenditure will drop from a A$93 million figure in Y/E 2007 to about A$73 million in Y/E 2008.
> 
> ...





Would you believe it, NHC took over RSP (1:1)!

*NHC - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 8.4 9.5 -- 
DPS 7.6 4.5 5.5 -- 

RSP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 2.7 15.6 29.0 32.5 
DPS 0.0 0.0 10.4 11.0 *

thanks

MS


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## noirua (27 September 2007)

Felix Resources remains one of the very few Aussie quoted coal stocks remaining after the very many bids in the last few years. This alone should push FLX higher. My view is that Felix remain very cheap. I do hold a large percentage of my portfolio in this stock, however.


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## noirua (27 September 2007)

The ongoing case, Ulan Mining (90% owned by Xstrata, 10% by Mitsubishi) versus Moolarben Coal (90% owned by Felix Resources, 10% owned by Soljitz), at the NSW Supreme Court, should be completed shortly. It is always possible, on the result, that either party may seek to appeal the decision.

The decision should be listed here, in due course:  http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/nsw/supreme_ct/recent-cases.html


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## noirua (28 September 2007)

Felix stock has moved on to $5.70 in stronger trading conditions than usual. Stock remains nervous as we await the court decision and from there a possible appeal.


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## noirua (29 September 2007)

noirua said:


> The ongoing case, Ulan Mining (90% owned by Xstrata, 10% by Mitsubishi) versus Moolarben Coal (90% owned by Felix Resources, 10% owned by Soljitz), at the NSW Supreme Court, should be completed shortly. It is always possible, on the result, that either party may seek to appeal the decision.
> 
> The decision should be listed here, in due course:  http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/nsw/supreme_ct/recent-cases.html




The above case will continue at 10am on Tuesday, 2nd October at Common Law Division, Administrative Law List.
Justice (Acting) Smart
Court 7, Level 1, Wentworth Chambers.
Hearing - Part Heard
1.030025/07 Ulan Coal Mines Ltd., v Minister For Mineral Resources & 1 ORS.


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## noirua (1 October 2007)

In the past the First Quarterly Accounts of FLX, to 30th September, have not mean't all that much.

This time, with the ongoing court case over Moolarben, these will mean a great deal more: As White Minings' former shareholders hold about 43% of Felix Resources. Would they cave in and accept an offer for their stock, as RMM have done?

The latest quarterly results will show whether Minerva, Yarrabee and Ashton open cut and longwall mines, are infact producing to the maximum now, as forecast by MD, Mr Brian Flannery.


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## noirua (5 October 2007)

Felix Resources trade at $5.91 this morning, which is quite a recovery from the recent low of $4.55, however, the very light trading in this stock may worry some.

The NSW Supreme Court Decision is expected very shortly.


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## noirua (5 October 2007)

One of the smaller factors in FLX's recent recovery has been its interest in Western Plains Resources. Felix stock interest is valued at just $3.6 million but the royalty interest on iron ore sales of 3mtpa will be considerable.


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## noirua (7 October 2007)

Peabody Energy have just completed a thermal Coal sale agreement with Japanese Utilities for 2008 at US$68 per tonne.  About 25% up on last years agreement.


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## noirua (9 October 2007)

Felix have reached $6.00 this morning, even though there are some announcements due in the near future, and not all of them certain. W.H. Ireland has also advised shareholders to reduce their holdings by 50%.

The First Quarter Results are due out on 17th October and are followed by the AGM  after that. The much talked about court case decision is due very shortly - some may have overlooked the fact that an appeal could follow that decision.


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## noirua (15 October 2007)

Felix have moved on to a 4-year closing high of $6.10 and are now the most interesting coal stock around, now that Centennial have fallen to Xstrata.

Providing the court case over Moolarben goes in FLX's favour and Wednesdays Quarterly Report is as favourable as expected, it should point the company on to a continued upward path.


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## michael_selway (15 October 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix have moved on to a 4-year closing high of $6.10 and are now the most interesting coal stock around, now that Centennial have fallen to Xstrata.
> 
> Providing the court case over Moolarben goes in FLX's favour and Wednesdays Quarterly Report is as favourable as expected, it should point the company on to a continued upward path.




Slightly revised earnings

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 22.0 41.9 70.7 
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 15.9 *

Also dont forget GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), CEY also AQA, have you heard of them?

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (16 October 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Also dont forget GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), CEY also AQA, have you heard of them?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Hi M_S, Thou knowest that I have indeed heard of these!.

GCL is improving again after Xstrata lost interest and others built up stakes. CEY is going into the hands of Xstrata,; Pity about all the debts as they let Anvill Hill go for bottom dollar, imho.  MCC has a number of problems to overcome, otherwise they should be priced at double FLX. AQA are a bit mixed: Buyback is a plus and iron ore interests, but lower coal production a minus and appeal and legal proceeding a hinderance.


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## noirua (17 October 2007)

Felix Resources jumped to a 4.5 year high of $6.50, the days high.  Trading rose to 1,032,508 shares, high for FLX as shares are tightly held.

Quarterly report is due out tomorrow and the rise in prices of thermal coal ($71.50 a tonne out of Newcastle), PCI coal and semi-soft coking coal, should impact on profits for the current year.


----------



## michael_selway (17 October 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi M_S, Thou knowest that I have indeed heard of these!.
> 
> GCL is improving again after Xstrata lost interest and others built up stakes. CEY is going into the hands of Xstrata,; Pity about all the debts as they let Anvill Hill go for bottom dollar, imho.  MCC has a number of problems to overcome, otherwise they should be priced at double FLX. AQA are a bit mixed: Buyback is a plus and iron ore interests, but lower coal production a minus and appeal and legal proceeding a hinderance.




Yep besides GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), FLX, CEY, AQA, there's an explorer COK dong well also

*FLX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 22.0 41.9 75.3 
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 15.9 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (18 October 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Yep besides GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), FLX, CEY, AQA, there's an explorer COK dong well also
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Hi M_S et al, Cockatoo are raising lots of cash by share sales to drill their tenements in Queensland, and this appears to be holding them back. Coal is one of the Princes these days so money will pour in. Lots of good thermal and semi-soft coal near their areas. 

Not much interest in FLX on ASF. Considering the stock has come up from 38 cents in 2003 to $6.50 last evening, they have missed out on something. Lots of interesting prospects in the next 12 months - good luck


----------



## michael_selway (21 October 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi M_S et al, Cockatoo are raising lots of cash by share sales to drill their tenements in Queensland, and this appears to be holding them back. Coal is one of the Princes these days so money will pour in. Lots of good thermal and semi-soft coal near their areas.
> 
> Not much interest in FLX on ASF. Considering the stock has come up from 38 cents in 2003 to $6.50 last evening, they have missed out on something. Lots of interesting prospects in the next 12 months - good luck




Hi Noirua do you know much about WHC?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.5 6.2 32.3 60.0 
DPS 0.0 3.0 16.0 30.0 *



> Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC) is a coal mining company with the projects located in the Gunnedah Region of New South Wales. Company operates two open cut mines near Boggabri and is a major shareholder of the Werris Creek mine north of Quirindi. WHC is actively seeking to develop several other small mines in the region and a major longwall mine south of Narrabri. Whitehaven also operates the Coal Handling and Preparation Plant (CHPP) and rail loader at Gunnedah.


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## Reefer (21 October 2007)

Hi MS
I am a Felix tragic from way back with an interest in all coals - I've also held Austral and Centennial at different times  The man you should talk to is Analyst99 on the HotCopper forum.  He has been pushing Whitehaven to me since they were $2.15 about 5-6 weeks ago.  Gave me some good news about a week ago when they were $2.60 but again did not have available funds.  I am hopring there is enough of a correction on Monday to provide a window to get into WHC as I think they will be the next rampant coal stock.  But speak to Analyst as he knows a lot about coal - it may be Noirua's alter ego as he has similar knowledge.  He is very upbeat on WHS and also recommends CES as a speccie - big coal interests in Indonesia.


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## michael_selway (21 October 2007)

Reefer said:


> Hi MS
> I am a Felix tragic from way back with an interest in all coals - I've also held Austral and Centennial at different times  The man you should talk to is Analyst99 on the HotCopper forum.  He has been pushing Whitehaven to me since they were $2.15 about 5-6 weeks ago.  Gave me some good news about a week ago when they were $2.60 but again did not have available funds.  I am hopring there is enough of a correction on Monday to provide a window to get into WHC as I think they will be the next rampant coal stock.  But speak to Analyst as he knows a lot about coal - it may be Noirua's alter ego as he has similar knowledge.  He is very upbeat on WHS and also recommends CES as a speccie - big coal interests in Indonesia.




Hi Reefer, thanks for the info, i will check it out

Btw what is the code for "AUSTRAL"

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (22 October 2007)

Felix Resources First Quarterly Report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071022/pdf/31581prvsscvp4.pdf


----------



## Reefer (22 October 2007)

Just posted this on HC Noirua.
This seems to me to be a very bullish report:
"Coal sales of 1,958,000 tonnes for the quarter is a record for our three mines.
The Ashton longwall production for the quarter exceeded budget by 250,000 tonnes
Minerva production for the quarter has exceeded budget and sales are dependent on rail availability as the port of Gladstone is now delivering reasonable vessel turnaround times with the commissioning of the third shiploader and the fourth berth.
Felix has put on hold the sale of 49% equity in Yarrabee.
The coal market has strengthened considerably in the past three months. Felix has recently concluded a sale of Ashton thermal coal at US$80 FOB for 6320 Kcal FOB which equates to US$85 for Ashton’s higher CV thermal coal.
Moolarben is the next project for development. The court case with Xstrata/Ulan Coal Mines was completed on 3rd October 2007 following Judge Smart’s onsite inspection of the old cattle fences and stockyards on the Ulan property. We now await the court’s determination. Felix maintains it’s position that the Xstrata/Ulan case is without merit
Coal prices are improving although the strong Australian dollar will affect profitability. Felix has 34 customers in 10 countries and price negotiations are continuing for the 2008 deliveries."

Taken the liberty of not pasting any bad news but there is very little of that, apart from continuing demurrage problems at Newcastle port. I thought the recent price rise was expectations of success in the Moolarben case, but this company is obviously galloping off full steam toward the heady broker projections of the next few years.

This is the best quarterly they have released imo. I think the big news for all us long term believers is the strength of the current coal prices.  I will be interested to see what the "friendly" brokers do when they release new reports, becuase I'm not sure from memory that they plugged in increasing prices fro thermal and coking, certainly not in the long run.


----------



## noirua (22 October 2007)

Not mentioned in the quarterly report are the other interests of Felix Resources:

1). Royalty interest on WPG production of iron ore in South Australia.
2). Indian JV exploration to supply coal to a powerstation.
3). Phillipson Coal interests on 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coals on sale/royalty option to Flinders.
4). ADC interest on former Whyalla Demonstration Plant through S.A.S.E.
5). 51% interest in the Athena Underground Project (560 million tonnes inferred resource) to mine coal near Minerva.


----------



## noirua (23 October 2007)

Excitement rises as Felix Resources push on towards $7.00 following the upbeat First Quarter Results.  The main bullish factor was the price obtained for Ashton thermal coal at US$80 per tonne. Ashton thermal normally trades about US$5 below benchmark.

Felix are likely to get figures closer to US$70 for 2008 Ashton thermal and nearer US$80 for Yarrabee thermal. These prices would be up 35% - 40% on 2007 in US Dollar terms, but will be hit by the strong Aussie against the Greenback.

Felix have decided to hold the sale of 49% of Yarrabbe due to bouyant Thermal and PCI coal prices.


----------



## michael_selway (23 October 2007)

noirua said:


> Not mentioned in the quarterly report are the other interests of Felix Resources:
> 
> 1). Royalty interest on WPG production of iron ore in South Australia.
> 2). Indian JV exploration to supply coal to a powerstation.
> ...




Potentially this company could be huge i.e. major coal player!

Do you reckon that it will also be a takeover target (in full)?

Thanks

MS


----------



## noirua (23 October 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Potentially this company could be huge i.e. major coal player!
> Do you reckon that it will also be a takeover target (in full)?
> Thanks
> MS




Felix Resources is the most difficult of coal targets as former holders of White Mining stock have a 42% interest  and AMCI have a 19.2% stake. White Mining shareholders have added about 2% to their holding in the last 2 years.

Any bid would have to be around $9-00 - $10.00 to have any chance of success. A cash bid would hit some hard, for capital gains tax reasons, with the stock up 17 - fold from its 2003 low.


----------



## Reefer (23 October 2007)

The tightness of the register also contributes to the volatility of FLX - goes down quickly but also rises quickly because there is not much stock available.
Plus there are not many opportunities to enter the Australian coal sector.
The September quarterly report blew me out of the water, and I thank the day management picked up White Mining and the Flannerys, as they have certainly turned this compnay into one of the major players.
Can't imagine what the figures will be like once the demurrage problems disappear, because we will experience a quantum lift in income once Newcastle port congestion is overcome, and the infrastructure to achieve that is currently being put in place.
As far as a takeover, evryone has their price, but it obviously could not be hostile.


----------



## noirua (25 October 2007)

Felix Resources have gone through the $7 barrier to trade at $7.07, up 26 cents. The bullish sentiment echoed by Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, on thermal, pci and semi-soft coking coal may have been the main factors. Others were the confidence in Cessnock and HarryBrandt.


----------



## Reefer (25 October 2007)

Or the Moolarben result Noirua??  We haven't seen any broker reports for some time but $7 was top of the range target price with Moolarben priced in, and the date to achieve $7 was still some time away.  The quarterly's were certainly excellent and perhaps the instos are climbing on board, but Moolarben result must be announced soon.


----------



## Reefer (25 October 2007)

Up 37 cents with 15 minutes to close - this has gone feral today. Court case, takeover, re-rating??
Could be any one, or all.


----------



## noirua (26 October 2007)

With a lift to $7.35, up 23 cents this morning, it seems that there must be more in this uplift than meets the eye.
Market Cap has now reached $1.44 billion, up from $25 million in 2003.

We know that there is no chance of anyone else taking a major stake unless one of the former White Mining shareholders or AMCI accept an offer.  (they together hold 62% of FLX stock)


----------



## noirua (26 October 2007)

Chairmans address by Mr Traver W Duncan and MD's report by Mr Brian Flannery, to shareholders at the Annual General Meeting that started a shortwhile ago:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071026/pdf/315cqb5447jklw.pdf


----------



## michael_selway (29 October 2007)

noirua said:


> With a lift to $7.35, up 23 cents this morning, it seems that there must be more in this uplift than meets the eye.
> Market Cap has now reached $1.44 billion, up from $25 million in 2003.
> 
> We know that there is no chance of anyone else taking a major stake unless one of the former White Mining shareholders or AMCI accept an offer.  (they together hold 62% of FLX stock)





The long "mine life" is very attractive with FLX

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.4 
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7 *



> The strength of the low cost Moolarben open-cut mine is well known.
> 
> One of the most important factors is the Athena tenement that has 560 million tonnes of inferred thermal coal and FLX are at present working to raise this towards indicated status.
> This future mine surrounds Minerva and can use the Minerva infrastructure and costs will be low to bring it into production. Coal quality is excellent and inline or better than Minerva.
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## noirua (31 October 2007)

Felix stock is back on the move this morning having hit $7.29 again, up 20 cents. 
Following the AGM and Quarterly Report, it is only the court case over Moolarben and sale of a further 10% of Moolarben, that results are awaited on.
Then should come the two analysts reports that remain outstanding.
Some still expect a bid for Felix, though I consider this very unlikely, as it could take at least $9 - $10.00 to be successful. Any bidder knows it could be a long drawn out affair and the major holders could ask for $12 - so only an outside speculation...


----------



## Reefer (1 November 2007)

Noirua, you will have to stop ramping this stock - it's up another 40c again this morning.  Certainly something happening out there, whether tha association with WPG is starting to grab?


----------



## noirua (1 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> Noirua, you will have to stop ramping this stock - it's up another 40c again this morning.  Certainly something happening out there, whether tha association with WPG is starting to grab?




Hi Reefer et al, As you said yourself, Felix are a tightly held stock and movements South or North can easily be exagerated. 62% with AMCI and Former White Mining shareholders, about 17% with UK, Irish and German shareholders, who rarely ever trade. They mostly hold shares direct with Felix Resources and not with nominees.

Many UK holders were sucked in on the LSE AIM market by the TV show "Show me the money" in 2,000. Quite a lot sold up at 93 cents in 2004 under the $500 rule. The former CEO of Felix Resources (Auiron Energy) in 2001 has said that well over 50% of shareholders came from the U.K., Ireland and Germany.

I only provide information about Felix Resources and have held stock since 1983. My holding represents 55% of my portfolio that is invested in shares. I hold 68% in cash and fixed interest bonds.
I only post the above to show the need to be careful when investing in high risk stocks in the coal and other commodity sectors.


----------



## Reefer (1 November 2007)

I have probably held from 1986 so also a long termer.  Would have been a large percentage of my holdings at various times but I have sold down over the last year to enter other stocks.  It is pleasing to see such a turn around for a company which promised so much in the 80's and 90's but was unable to get projects over the line. Purchasing Yarrabee with the remainder of the Aurion money was a brilliant move, and the further expansion into White Mining has turned this into a serious coal company.  I no longer believe there is much risk in the stock, notwithstanding US corrections.


----------



## Reefer (1 November 2007)

So far today 200,000 shares traded over 352 trades, many parcels of 100 and less going though with a few larger ones interspersed, so perhaps many of the Europeans are taking profits, should clean up the register as willing buyers still around.


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## michael_selway (1 November 2007)

"I have probably held from 1986 so also a long termer.  Would have been a large percentage of my holdings at various times but I have sold down over the last year to enter other stocks.  It is pleasing to see such a turn around for a company which promised so much in the 80's and 90's but was unable to get projects over the line. Purchasing Yarrabee with the remainder of the Aurion money was a brilliant move, and the further expansion into White Mining has turned this into a serious coal company.  I no longer believe there is much risk in the stock, notwithstanding US corrections"

Wow since 1986 thats ages ago!

thx

MS


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## Reefer (2 November 2007)

MS, Noirua has been in even longer!!!
There is something afoot with Felix. Up 33 cents today in a fairly lousy market.  The buyer is content to let the price slip back every few hours before pouncing again, been the same for the last few days. Someone is accumulating.
Rather than any Xsrata involvement, it may merely be the clients of "friendly" brokers being in receipt of the latest broker reports. They must be updating their targets in view of the excellent September Quarter report.


----------



## noirua (2 November 2007)

I won't make any forecasts for Felix. All I will say is that MD, Mr Brian Flannery, confirmed a price agreement for thermal coal out of the Minerva Mine in Queensland, at US$15 above the 2007 agreed price, starting from 1st January 2008. Note this radio broadcast that is 25 minutes long:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/32271

Mr Flannery also confirmed plans to start shipping coal from the Athena Mine (51%) (near Minerva) from 2012. Inferred coal resource is 560 million tonnes and is the same size as the whole of Moolarben. Previous plans were to ramp up to 10 million tonnes per annum eventually.

Felix own 15.4% of NCIG. The company that is responsible for building the Newcastle Port Extension.


----------



## Reefer (2 November 2007)

Calmly trashed the $8 barrier did Felix - last sale $8.10, buyer offers $8.16 and not much in the way to $9.  This is a huge performance in a day where the overall market is down so much.  Something is happening apart from future forecasts imo.


----------



## Reefer (2 November 2007)

Notice that there are over 400 trades now, many of them going through at around 50 shares. Is it possible some brokers clerk has whacked the computer on to automatically buy 50 every minute and then gone off to a long lunch?


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## michael_selway (2 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> MS, Noirua has been in even longer!!!
> There is something afoot with Felix. Up 33 cents today in a fairly lousy market.  The buyer is content to let the price slip back every few hours before pouncing again, been the same for the last few days. Someone is accumulating.
> Rather than any Xsrata involvement, it may merely be the clients of "friendly" brokers being in receipt of the latest broker reports. They must be updating their targets in view of the excellent September Quarter report.




really when was FLX listed!?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.4 
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7 *

Yep have to load up on coal!












MS


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## noirua (3 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> really when was FLX listed!?
> MS




Hi m_s, Felix Resources (Meekatharra Minerals) was formed in 1970 as a private company and was first quoted on the ASX in 1978.
The equivalent all-time high in 1981 was around $65.00 a share, in the Great Mining Boom. The boom was fuelled by UK investors who were able to by Aussie shares quite easily in those days. I believe it is now more complicated and they are excluded from rights issues and share purchase plans - the Americans always have been, due to their own laws. Money laundering regulations may not have helped.


----------



## noirua (5 November 2007)

The quick rise in Felix Resources stock to over $8.00 seems to have been driven very hard. I have now reduced my holding earlier this morning.


----------



## Reefer (5 November 2007)

You timed it pretty well Noirua as they have struggled in later trade.  Still not sure why all the activity but it appears to me there is a concerted accumulation of stock by someone. Either taking a stake in the company or an update by one of the brokers which we haven't yet seen.


----------



## michael_selway (5 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> You timed it pretty well Noirua as they have struggled in later trade.  Still not sure why all the activity but it appears to me there is a concerted accumulation of stock by someone. Either taking a stake in the company or an update by one of the brokers which we haven't yet seen.




The thing is all the below are takeover target literally, not speculation

All are producing and have forecast increase in production (& EPS)

Mine life is not bad as well, and coal price has been going up

So you could say these are all sitting ducks, just need to take a pick

*CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, COK, NEC*

However market correction may hit these a bit

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (6 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> The thing is all the below are takeover target literally, not speculation
> 
> All are producing and have forecast increase in production (& EPS)
> 
> ...




Hi m_s et al, I like that "sitting ducks". I remember speaking to an old soldier who fought in Burma during the last world war. He said, that an opening in the jungle was fired on for over an hour and most died, he was a fortunate survivor. Just like a patch of grass land that is mowed in both directions, you look back and there are a few stalks of grass still standing "they are the survivors".

One or two will survive. What is your betting on FLX?


----------



## noirua (6 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> You timed it pretty well Noirua as they have struggled in later trade.  Still not sure why all the activity but it appears to me there is a concerted accumulation of stock by someone. Either taking a stake in the company or an update by one of the brokers which we haven't yet seen.




Hi Reefer et al, I'm starting to lose the plot a bit with Felix after 24 years of reality. I thought, originally, that a bid could come in between $8 and $9 and now the stock has, for a short period, gone through the $8.00 barrier. $10.00 is my absolute top price for Felix Resources, in a bid situation, and despite the assets probably being worth a tops of $2 billion ( equates to $10.00 a share) - where to now?


----------



## michael_selway (6 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi Reefer et al, I'm starting to lose the plot a bit with Felix after 24 years of reality. I thought, originally, that a bid could come in between $8 and $9 and now the stock has, for a short period, gone through the $8.00 barrier. $10.00 is my absolute top price for Felix Resources, in a bid situation, and despite the assets probably being worth a tops of $2 billion ( equates to $10.00 a share) - where to now?




Hi i think $10 sounds like a good figure and min one would think

The 30 yrs mine life is really attractive, for China esp, who really need the energy source startign straight away if possible

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.6 
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7 *

thx

MS



> Date: 15/10/2007
> Author: Andrew Trounson
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 37
> Vietnam will increase its imports of thermal coal for power generation fromalmost zero to as much as 30 million tonnes annually by about 2011. The nationof 85 million people will need to source coal to satisfy demand for energy thatgrows at 15% each year, while overall economic expansion runs at 8% and more. Amajor supplier of coal will be Australia, and in late October 2007 a Vietnamesedelegation is visiting that country. Talks have already been held betweenElectricity Vietnam and Felix Resources, Rio Tinto and Xstrata. A number ofoverseas utility groups are keen to invest in new power stations in Vietnam
> ...


----------



## noirua (8 November 2007)

Interesting rumour that AMCI and former White Mining shareholders, they have over 69% of Felix stock, may be seeking to build on their holdings and take FLX private.


----------



## noirua (8 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi i think $10 sounds like a good figure and min one would think
> 
> The 30 yrs mine life is really attractive, for China esp, who really need the energy source startign straight away if possible
> 
> ...




Hi m_s, interesting part of your post about Vietnam. Felix are seeking to supply anthracite to Vietnam from their HarryBrandt mine. This is likely to be a few years away at best. - good luck


----------



## michael_selway (9 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, interesting part of your post about Vietnam. Felix are seeking to supply anthracite to Vietnam from their HarryBrandt mine. This is likely to be a few years away at best. - good luck




Hi Noirua, do you know anything about RIV?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 3.5 5.8 6.0 51.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS




> Business Description
> Riversdale Mining Limited (RIV, formerly known as Wave Capital Limited and WaivCom Worldwide Limited) is involved in exploration and development of coal mining in Africa.
> 
> Company Strategy
> RIVs principal objective is to build a successful coal exploration and mining business operating in South Africa and Mozambique. Main asset is a Zululand Anthracite colliery, where company targets 17 years mining operation. Exploration upside is seen through Mozambique Coal project. Work also continued on a bankable feasibility study for development of the Riversdale Anthracite Colliery (RAC). RIV continued to accumulate coal prospective tenements in Mosamibique and entered in to a JV deal with Tata group to facilitate development. RIV aims to apply funds in an efficient manner with a view to provide above average and sustainable returns to shareholders. RIV also adopts high standards of occupational health and safety, environmental management and ethics. Riversdale Mining reported NPAT down 80.2% to $5.02m for the year ended 30 June 2007. Revenues from ordinary activities were $72m. Revenue and net profit for the year ended 30 June 2007 includes a full year of operating contribution from Zululand Anthracite Colliery (ZAC). Diluted EPS was 3.52 cents compared to 29.81 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $18.2m compared to $2.34m last year. No dividend was declared.


----------



## noirua (14 November 2007)

Hi M_S, I'm not keen on stocks mining in Africa and think they may take quite a few more years to develop and create sufficient infrastructure. One company called Lonrho Africa, seems to be one of the leading lights in Africa and they often take a stake in anything with interesting potential.

Meanwhile, Felix Resources, with no interests in Africa, have recovered from profit taking and are up 47 cents at $7.87 today. Quite a few unsubstantiated rumours are going the rounds and the court case over Moolarben is expected at any moment.


----------



## Reefer (14 November 2007)

Either a takeover or the Moolarben news imo, FLX currently up 11% for the day. But why did they drop so much yesterday?  This is an extremely volatile stock for a producing miner, it moves 5 to 10% a day, and massive amounts of small trades which indicates to me that one holder may be accumulating.


----------



## noirua (14 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> Either a takeover or the Moolarben news imo, FLX currently up 11% for the day. But why did they drop so much yesterday?  This is an extremely volatile stock for a producing miner, it moves 5 to 10% a day, and massive amounts of small trades which indicates to me that one holder may be accumulating.




Very difficult to know if anyone is accumulating or not. If a substantial holder has put in an order for stock they do not have to make an announcement until the order is completed.

Lots of rumours flying about. AMCI may try and take their holding to 29.99%, just shy of 30%, when they would have to bid. 
The moolarben court case decision is dragging on and old thoughts that an out of court deal would be a better idea. Xstrata would gain a great deal by holding a controlling interest in Moolarben, as the project is adjoining their Ulan open-cut and underground mines. 
Peabody and Rio Tinto have mines close to Moolarben in the Hunter Valley.

Any bid for Felix Resources would have to be between $9.00 and $11.00 and have the support of former White Mining shareholders who are rumoured to have raised their stake in Felix from 48.8% to 50.1%.

***Above are my own opinions and not from any announcements by Felix Resources or from any other source.

Felix finished the day at a 4 year closing high of $8.21, up 81 cents, with 427,690 shares traded.


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## michael_selway (15 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Very difficult to know if anyone is accumulating or not. If a substantial holder has put in an order for stock they do not have to make an announcement until the order is completed.
> 
> Lots of rumours flying about. AMCI may try and take their holding to 29.99%, just shy of 30%, when they would have to bid.
> The moolarben court case decision is dragging on and old thoughts that an out of court deal would be a better idea. Xstrata would gain a great deal by holding a controlling interest in Moolarben, as the project is adjoining their Ulan open-cut and underground mines.
> ...




Hi Noirua, do you know when the Court Case will release its final decision?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.6 
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7 *


----------



## Reefer (16 November 2007)

Announcement at 4.24pm after market close, and explains the dedicated buying over the past week (by staff of the NSW courts).
The Xstrata/Ulan action has been dismissed so we are away!!!

16 November 2007
Australian Stock Exchange
Company Announcements
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
Xstrata’s and Mitsubishi’s legal proceedings on Moolarben mining lease
Felix advised the market on 30 March 2007 that Ulan Coal Mines Limited (Ulan), which is a joint venture of Xstrata as to 90% and Mitsubishi as to 10%, had commenced legal proceedings in the Supreme Court of NSW seeking orders to prevent the grant of a mining lease to Moolarben Coal Mines Pty Limited which is wholly owned by Felix.
The court case was held from 20 September 2007 and was followed by a site visit in early October 2007. The Supreme Court of NSW has today published its decision and dismissed Ulan’s action.
The detailed content of the court’s published decision is being reviewed and, if considered necessary, a further announcement of the impacts on the company and the Moolarben Coal Project will be made early next week.


----------



## Reefer (16 November 2007)

*Re: FLX - Felix Resources Wins Moolarben Case*

Guess we shouldn't count our chickens until we see the contents of the decision, but their should not be any constraints in my opinion, so it has to be excellent news.  Sorry I sold some a few days back.


----------



## noirua (17 November 2007)

*Re: FLX - Felix Resources Wins Moolarben Case*



Reefer said:


> Guess we shouldn't count our chickens until we see the contents of the decision, but their should not be any constraints in my opinion, so it has to be excellent news.  Sorry I sold some a few days back.




I sold 20% of my holding, at an average of $8.02, as well.  It doesn't mean we were wrong as it's never wrong to take a profit and many are looking for a takeover bid that may not come.

Felix may well have to purchase the land that is owned by Ulan Mining ( strange that the land was once owned by White Mining, now part of Felix Resources, and they sold it to Ulan Mining and on top of that the Felix present MD, Mr Brian Flannery, bought it from White Mining whilst working for Ulan Mining before the latter was purchased by Xstrata.) and if there in no agreement, a price has to be settled by arbitration with the NSW Mining Warden.


----------



## noirua (19 November 2007)

Felix Resources recovered to hit $8.28 today after the NSW Supreme Court ruled in favour of their subsiduary Moolarben Coal, after a case was brought by Xstrata's Ulan Mining Co.


----------



## Reefer (20 November 2007)

Sell side pretty thin Noirua, as they steam up to $8.61.  The market likes the Moolaraben decision obviously.  Other coal producers a bit mixed after report in SMH re rail quotas being slashed in the Hunter Valley.

This report courtesy of Happytown on WHC thread:

Coalminers at mercy of railway owners

THE fate of several smaller coal producers in the Hunter Valley could hinge on the rail operator Pacific National.

As overstretched infrastructure in NSW and Queensland continues to hamper the coal industry's growth, smaller Hunter Valley producers are sweating on getting any coal at all to port.

It used to be that when a port had to cut capacity, all producers took an equal cut.

But with record prices and infrastructure stretched to the limit, the bigger producers may end up muscling out smaller operators 

...

After coal producers shipping out of Newcastle failed to agree on allocations for next year, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission on Friday night received a proposal to allocate port capacity based on railway contracts.

...

But several small and mid-tier producers - believed to include Donaldson Coal, Whitehaven Coal, Peabody Energy, CVRD and Idemitsu - have been informed by Pacific National that their railway allocations will be slashed.

...

A Pacific National spokeswoman said her company expected every Pacific National customer would gain an allocation under the new arrangements. But she declined to reveal whether the allocations could be cut so much as to render some operations uneconomic.

It is believed it told some producers they would receive only half their requested allocations.

...  


http://business.smh.com.au/coalminer...1119-1bfh.html


----------



## michael_selway (20 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources recovered to hit $8.28 today after the NSW Supreme Court ruled in favour of their subsiduary Moolarben Coal, after a case was brought by Xstrata's Ulan Mining Co.




Hm it jumped heaps today!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 50.3 
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (21 November 2007)

Hi m_s, Reefer et al, interesting that information on rail problems, all helps keep the thermal coal price up.

The closing price was $8.70, yet another, now, 5 year closing high, market cap $1.70 billion.

Quite a lot of speculation, with Felix not replying to requests for an update on the top 20 shareholders or any comment on possible talks with another party with some major shareholders.

***Due to the highly speculative position of Felix Resources, all comments are my view only and in no way advice to buy, sell or hold stock.


----------



## Reefer (22 November 2007)

Copped a hammering since momentarily achieving $8.70, albeit in a fractious market. The pattern of trades has not altered though and accumulation goes on, the accumulator/s just getting them at a much lower price as FLX holders take profits, or lose confidence in the lead from the Dow Jones.


----------



## noirua (22 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> Copped a hammering since momentarily achieving $8.70, albeit in a fractious market. The pattern of trades has not altered though and accumulation goes on, the accumulator/s just getting them at a much lower price as FLX holders take profits, or lose confidence in the lead from the Dow Jones.




Interesting to see if the selling by more nervous holders is eventually overcome by the buyer - we hope is there.


----------



## Reefer (23 November 2007)

Ulan puts in an appeal, as per Felix announcement after the Friday close.

*Xstrata’s and Mitsubishi’s legal proceedings on Moolarben mining lease*
Felix advised the market on 30 March 2007 that Ulan Coal Mines Limited (Ulan), which is a joint venture of Xstrata as to 90% and Mitsubishi as to 10%, had commenced legal proceedings in the Supreme Court of NSW seeking orders to prevent the grant of a mining lease to Moolarben Coal Mines Pty Limited which is wholly owned by Felix.
On 16 November 2007, following the court case, Felix further advised the market that the Supreme Court of NSW had published its decision and dismissed Ulan’s action.
Today Ulan have appealed the decision of the Supreme Court of NSW. As per the original case Felix believes this action is without merit and will be vigorously defended.


----------



## michael_selway (24 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Interesting to see if the selling by more nervous holders is eventually overcome by the buyer - we hope is there.




Hi Noirua, might be good to pick up soem while its off its high you reckon?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 66.7 
DPS 6.0 4.9 15.0 12.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (27 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, might be good to pick up soem while its off its high you reckon?
> thx MS




Hi m_s, If only I new. There seems to be a bit of a cloud over the mining sector at the moment with very many stocks down 10% to 20% from their years highs.

The prime lending problems are very deep in the US, and as we know, when Wall Street sneezes the UK Footsie catches a cold. That index includes the big miners, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Xstrata, Anglo American etc., and that drag is putting pressure on Aussie miners at home.

Felix Resources will have the worry of the appeal at the NSW Appeals Court that may take between 2 months and 4 months to resolve.  Though unlikely, the loser could then go on to the Federal Supreme Court. 

Upside is the bouyant thermal coal price and China opening a new power station or two every week. Indonesia has been hit with early storms and Queensland's Dalrymple Port has made big cutbacks and Rio have declared force majeur on deliveries, with their cargos of thermal coal piled up at the Port.  Fortunately Felix export out of Gladstone and all goes well there.

Felix Half Year ends on 31/12/2007 and should be the companies best in the last 37 years.


----------



## noirua (29 November 2007)

Decision of the NSW Supreme Court ( Updated 21/11/2007 )

Ulan Coal Mines Limited v Minister for Mineral Resources & Moolarben Coal Mines Limited:

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/nsw/supreme_ct/2007/1299.html

( Ulan Coal mines Limited is owned 90% by Xstrata and 10% Mitsubishi - Moolarben Coal Mines is owned 90% by Felix Resources and 10% Sojitz. )


----------



## Reefer (29 November 2007)

very shallow on the buy side at present.  I could take out all the buyers on my own which should see a downward spiral in the SP.  Seems to be a never ending supply of sellers, I didn't know there were so many shares available out of directors' hands?


----------



## michael_selway (29 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> very shallow on the buy side at present.  I could take out all the buyers on my own which should see a downward spiral in the SP.  Seems to be a never ending supply of sellers, I didn't know there were so many shares available out of directors' hands?




Hi not bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 20.9 36.0 50.8 
DPS 6.0 3.5 13.8 12.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (29 November 2007)

Reefer said:


> very shallow on the buy side at present.  I could take out all the buyers on my own which should see a downward spiral in the SP.  Seems to be a never ending supply of sellers, I didn't know there were so many shares available out of directors' hands?





Reports that W.H. Ireland, the U.K. AIM quoted broker and cash startup enterpriser, has been advising shareholders in Felix Resources to sell stock in favour of two other mining investments.


----------



## noirua (30 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Decision of the NSW Supreme Court ( Updated 21/11/2007 )
> 
> Ulan Coal Mines Limited v Minister for Mineral Resources & Moolarben Coal Mines Limited:
> 
> ...





Items listed in the above report at "374" and "375" ( Towards the end), interestingly, now admit that talks were going on between Felix Resources and Xstrata, on the latter taking an interest in Moolarben.  An agreed price proved difficult to reach and RMM finally sold their 19.12% stake in Felix Resources to AMCI for $5.00 a share, and this upset Xstrata's representative.


----------



## michael_selway (30 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Reports that W.H. Ireland, the U.K. AIM quoted broker and cash startup enterpriser, has been advising shareholders in Felix Resources to sell stock in favour of two other mining investments.




Hi Noirua, do you know which other 2 mingin investments?

thx

MS


*NEWC Index (weekly)
02-Nov-07 82.08 
09-Nov-07 83.51 
16-Nov-07 84.48 
23-Nov-07 88.63 *


----------



## noirua (1 December 2007)

Felix Resources closed at the weeks high point of $8.00.  The last trade, 100,000 shares, appears to have been a bid price of $8.00, 12 cents above the last trade, and were taken off the fence.

Felix are locked in battle with Xstrata over Moolarben with the next stage at the NSW Supreme Court of Appeal.

White Mining former shareholders have 49.8% of FLX stock and AMCI 19.12%. There must be a feeling that someone may break ranks and sell to a predator or Felix themselves may want to do a deal over Moolarben the moment the appeal judgement is in.


----------



## noirua (4 December 2007)

Western Plains Resources have again posted good result and this time it is the Tui DSO Prospect, at Hawks Nest tenement (Felix hold 2.25 million shares in WPG, and royalties on iron ore production with SA Gov and the Indiginous peoples):  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071204/pdf/3168b8g30pr6xb.pdf


----------



## michael_selway (4 December 2007)

noirua said:


> Western Plains Resources have again posted good result and this time it is the Tui DSO Prospect, at Hawks Nest tenement (Felix hold 2.25 million shares in WPG, and royalties on iron ore production with SA Gov and the Indiginous peoples):  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071204/pdf/3168b8g30pr6xb.pdf




Hm WPG, isnt bad at all

Western Plains Resources (WPG) is an Australian mineral resources company with projects in South Australia and New South Wales.



> Date: 3/12/2007
> Author: Barry FitzGerald
> Source: The Age --- Page: B6
> There have been rumours Territory Resources has acquired a 4.6% stake in SouthAustralian iron ore group Western Plains Resources. Shares in Western Plainshave risen from less than $A0.20 a year ago to $A1.75 on 30 November 2007. Thereare a large number of prospective iron ore miners in Australia wanting tocapitalise on the strong demand for the steel-making ingredient, but WesternPlains is one of the most advanced. The company plans to commence shipments fromits Peculiar Knob project in January 2009. Territory has indicated that pursuingacquisition opportunities is part of its strategy for growth


----------



## noirua (5 December 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hm WPG, isnt bad at all
> 
> Western Plains Resources (WPG) is an Australian mineral resources company with projects in South Australia and New South Wales.




Speculation says that WPG may find about 15 pods of high grade iron ore and this MAY produce 300 million tonnes. The rest is about 770 million tonnes of low grade iron ore.

Difficult to know what Felix directors think of this holding, as they are all thermal, PCI and semi-soft coal miners in Queensland and NSW. They might want to take a quick $6 million from the shares and maybe a good price for the royalties, I don't know.


----------



## noirua (5 December 2007)

S.A.S.E.(owned 90% by Felix) were paid $750,000 for Peculiar Knob RL103 and received shares in Southern Iron (SI) that were reported worth $450,000 at the time. ( SI are now 100% owned by Western Plains Resources (WPG).

S.A.S.E. made an agreement on the sale of Hawks Nest to SI to receive $350,000 on the granting of a mining lease and to receive $1 per tonne for all sales of production from Hawks Nest.

The information, at the time, is at (slow download on some computers):http://www.westernplainsresources.c...ASX Notice of Meeting 21st September 2006.pdf
( Go to page 12 onwards of the HLB Mann Judd report)

Felix trade up 25 cents at $8.45 early this afternoon.


----------



## Reefer (5 December 2007)

Noirua
Any chance that it's Xstrata accumulating slowly, or is that not their style.  I would imagine they could fund takeover of Felix with their petty cash, and if the price is right, it's doubtful the majority shareholders would stand in the way.


----------



## noirua (6 December 2007)

Reefer said:


> Noirua
> Any chance that it's Xstrata accumulating slowly, or is that not their style.  I would imagine they could fund takeover of Felix with their petty cash, and if the price is right, it's doubtful the majority shareholders would stand in the way.





Reefer, It is probably unlikely, though any buying would be through an Australian subsiduary, probably not Ulan Mining as they are owned 10% by Mitsubishi and in a legal tussle over Moolarben. Xstrata failed in their bid for Gloucester Coal as the companies shares became more tightly held and they failed on taking over LionOre. So I guess they've learn't by these two failures and wont make a bid for Felix Resources as they might have to pay around $12 per share (only my figure and from no other source, and not a recommendation to buy shares) to the angry major holders because of this legal tussle over Moolarben.


----------



## noirua (11 December 2007)

Booming forecasts for coal, on to 2009, should auger well for Felix Resources in this "update 3" from Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=asKL.CKXhBHA&refer=australia


----------



## michael_selway (11 December 2007)

noirua said:


> Booming forecasts for coal, on to 2009, should auger well for Felix Resources in this "update 3" from Bloomberg:
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=asKL.CKXhBHA&refer=australia




Hi thanks, but link doesnt work

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 22.5 35.8 54.5 
DPS 6.0 4.8 15.9 12.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (11 December 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi thanks, but link doesnt work
> MS





Hi m_s, the link does work, I've just tried it - noi


Anyway, it continues to look very good for Felix Resources with forecasts for up to US$100 per tonne for benchmark thermal.

Felix trade at $8.50 at time of posting and are within 20 cents of the previous 5 year closing high and that's despite the worries over the Moolarben appeal.


----------



## michael_selway (11 December 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, the link does work, I've just tried it - noi
> 
> 
> Anyway, it continues to look very good for Felix Resources with forecasts for up to US$100 per tonne for benchmark thermal.
> ...




Hi thanks yep it works now

I still think FLX will get takeover eventually

UBS last month boosted its estimates for annual contract prices for thermal coal for the Japanese fiscal year starting April 1. Contracts may be settled at $90 a ton next year, rising to $105 in 2009, up from previous forecasts of $70 and $75, it said. National Australia Bank Ltd., Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty and Credit Suisse Group have all raised their forecasts for 2008 contract prices within the past month. 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (12 December 2007)

michael_selway said:


> I still think FLX will get takeover eventually
> UBS last month boosted its estimates for annual contract prices for thermal coal for the Japanese fiscal year starting April 1. Contracts may be settled at $90 a ton next year, rising to $105 in 2009, up from previous forecasts of $70 and $75, it said. National Australia Bank Ltd., Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty and Credit Suisse Group have all raised their forecasts for 2008 contract prices within the past month. thx MS





The one big plus that the Aussie export coal miners are looking for is to set the prices for benchmark thermal for  2008 at US$90 per tonne and then the $Aussie to sink back to A$1.35 to the greenback.
Felix are aiming for after tax profits of around A$100 million for Y/E 2008 which should be achievable at the present exchange rate of around A$1.13 to US$. The Half Yearly result to 31st December 2007 should show that is being achieved.


----------



## noirua (17 December 2007)

Always a good discussion with miners is "what is the real profit". Felix showed $47.2 million after tax profit in 2007, after $93 million in exploration and development expenditure and before the cost of the $11.8 million dividend: Also included was the $13.3 million tax return, $18 million of the profit on selling 10% of Moolarben and about $28 million profit on sales of 19% of Minerva.

In 2008, sales attributable to Felix will be around 5 million to 5.2 million tonnes, higher than Austock suggested in September, if the first quarter results continue through 2008. Felix expect coal price agreements US$15 above last years from 1st April 2008. Further sales of coal at spot prices can be expected after the 150,000 tonne sale of thermal from Ashton at US$85 per tonne (A$100 per tonne). Minerva pricing was agreed from 1st Jan 2008.
$70 million ($63 million profit) is still to come from the 10% sale of Moolarben.


----------



## michael_selway (17 December 2007)

noirua said:


> Always a good discussion with miners is "what is the real profit". Felix showed $47.2 million after tax profit in 2007, after $93 million in exploration and development expenditure and before the cost of the $11.8 million dividend: Also included was the $13.3 million tax return, $18 million of the profit on selling 10% of Moolarben and about $28 million profit on sales of 19% of Minerva.
> 
> In 2008, sales attributable to Felix will be around 5 million to 5.2 million tonnes, higher than Austock suggested in September, if the first quarter results continue through 2008. Felix expect coal price agreements US$15 above last years from 1st April 2008. Further sales of coal at spot prices can be expected after the 150,000 tonne sale of thermal from Ashton at US$85 per tonne (A$100 per tonne). Minerva pricing was agreed from 1st Jan 2008.
> $70 million ($63 million profit) is still to come from the 10% sale of Moolarben.




Looks pretty good

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 22.5 35.8 54.5 
DPS 6.0 4.8 15.9 12.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (18 December 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Looks pretty good




Hi m_s. Looks pretty good and suddenly the market drops like a stone. FLX now about $7.00 against an $8.70 high only a few weeks ago.

Western Plains Resources (WPG) are in trading halt. Maybe a small amount of cheer for Felix if it's a takeover bid, probably not, as my guessing is universally terrible in these matters.


----------



## michael_selway (18 December 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s. Looks pretty good and suddenly the market drops like a stone. FLX now about $7.00 against an $8.70 high only a few weeks ago.
> 
> Western Plains Resources (WPG) are in trading halt. Maybe a small amount of cheer for Felix if it's a takeover bid, probably not, as my guessing is universally terrible in these matters.




Well its only taking a breather!

I mean it went from 5-8 dollars in 3 months, have to further down the track for these great COAL companies 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (20 December 2007)

Felix seem determined to recover from that buffeting that sent them down nearly 2 dollars. Trading quietly as always but heading back towards $8.00. The half yearly result should be very good for FLX and should be out in about 4 weeks.


----------



## Reefer (20 December 2007)

Did you buy back in Noirua?  You mentioned you sold 20% of your holding the firdt time it went up over $8.  I'm not game to sell any more of mine.  I've reduced by 50% over the last year, but the rest I'm running with.


----------



## noirua (21 December 2007)

Reefer said:


> Did you buy back in Noirua?  You mentioned you sold 20% of your holding the firdt time it went up over $8.  I'm not game to sell any more of mine.  I've reduced by 50% over the last year, but the rest I'm running with.




I bought some stock on the decline in the first half of 2007 and sold not long ago. This is a high risk stock and is tightly held and that is the reason Felix are not in the ASX200 index.

Felix share of coal sold is set to rise from 3.7 million tonnes to 4.8 to 5.4 million tonnes in Y/E 2008. The 4.8 to 5.4 figure is wide as Felix are trying to sell coal into the spot maket. 150,000 tonnes from Ashton sold in August at US$85 per tonne, so far, for February/ March delivery.


----------



## noirua (21 December 2007)

"Uncertainty to keep coal prices strong":  http://today.reuters.co.uk/misc/Pri...654Z_01_L18424286_RTRIDST_0_COAL-ANALYSIS.XML


----------



## noirua (23 December 2007)

The 70% purchase of the Foxleigh coal mine by Anglo', announced this Friday, for A$721 million (US620 million)- to be adjusted for debt, coal stocks and typical balance sheet liabilities: Should put a fresh spark under the larger coal prospects in Queensland and NSW. Foxleigh produces 2.5mtpa of PCI coal for the steel industry with prospects up to 3.3mtpa.


----------



## noirua (24 December 2007)

Happy times for Felix Resources shareholders, up 80% on the year, and all this despite the worries and concerns during it. The year ahead looks to be a similar one for Felix with good news and the worries continuing into 2008.

I've held Felix stock for only a few months short of 25 years and I know there are many around who have done the same.

Good luck, well, to us all my friends as the journey continues :walker:


----------



## Real1ty (26 December 2007)

noirua said:


> The one big plus that the Aussie export coal miners are looking for is to set the prices for benchmark thermal for  2008 at US$90 per tonne and then the $Aussie to sink back to A$1.35 to the greenback.
> Felix are aiming for after tax profits of around A$100 million for Y/E 2008 which should be achievable at the present exchange rate of around A$1.13 to US$. The Half Yearly result to 31st December 2007 should show that is being achieved.




noirua

I have been following this thread keenly and enjoy the discussion and views of those who keenly follow this stock, which i currently don't hold.

If i may just get slightly off topic here are you suggesting that the AU$ will retreat next year or are you saying that you think the miners are thinking it will slip back next year?

If so, and you agree with this view, could you elaborate please, as i think the opposite is a very real chance.

Cheers


----------



## noirua (26 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> noirua
> 
> I have been following this thread keenly and enjoy the discussion and views of those who keenly follow this stock, which i currently don't hold.
> 
> ...




Hi Real1ty, Interest rates are one of the key factors here and this is versus the low rating of the Greenback. Interest rates may not fall that much further in the States, due to inflation pressures and the Government there introducing other measures to solve the sub-prime disaster. 

Australia may well have more sub-prime problems than are realised at present and the prices of many commodities may well fall back further. The need for interest rate increases may well subside.

Miners will obviously hope the Aussie will weaken, but as I mentioned, it is more likely to average around A$1.13 to the Greenback.


----------



## Real1ty (26 December 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi Real1ty, Interest rates are one of the key factors here and this is versus the low rating of the Greenback. Interest rates may not fall that much further in the States, due to inflation pressures and the Government there introducing other measures to solve the sub-prime disaster.
> 
> Australia may well have more sub-prime problems than are realised at present and the prices of many commodities may well fall back further. The need for interest rate increases may well subside.
> 
> Miners will obviously hope the Aussie will weaken, but as I mentioned, it is more likely to average around A$1.13 to the Greenback.




Hi noirua, Thanks for your reply.

I won't go into it too much as this isn't a currency thread and i don't want to derail the thread.
Although inflation is an issue, i still think the Fed will cut next time and maybe one more, while we have quite large inflation issues here which will see more hikes next year.
I feel this is where we might get support for our dollar but it is very hard to predict and there are many other issues involved.
The miners will certainly be hoping you are right 

Felix are a very tightly held company but with excellent prospects.
You seem quite confident when they report it will be very encouraging and that mixed with higher contract prices virtually guaranteed, this should provide the possibility of good sp appreciation.

Of course the risk to this will probably be the actual sentiment in the market due to the credit fallout, which i am sure we are going to hear a lot more about.

Very enjoyable and informative thread.


----------



## noirua (31 December 2007)

The following link to a Meekatharra Minerals (later Auiron Energy and Felix Resources) announcement on 25/1/1999, gives details of the companies, THEN, 85% interest in gold holdings in Indonesia.
These holdings were due to be floated on the TSX but events following the Bre-X collapse brought this C$300 million float prospect to a close.
It is thought that Felix Resources still have royalty rights over the gold holdings or should have:  http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FLX&E=ASX&N=176389


----------



## noirua (31 December 2007)

Felix have made headway this morning at $8.00, up 36 cents, but in meagre trading.

This light trading in this very tightly held stock has prevented FLX from entering the ASX 200, despite the market cap being easily high enough to achieve that.

The stock price has been advantaged, up to now, by these large holders having 70% of the shares, but it is now held back by this, due to a hostile bid having hardly any likelyhood of succeeding as it would have to be between $10 and $12 a share, IMHO.

AMCI, 19.12% holders, are a private American coal outfit and look more interested in expanding Felix than agreeing to a bid for its shares.
The rest of the holders are former White Mining shareholders and these companies are interested in running the Ashton coal mines, Moolarben Project, Harry Brandt and the UCC interests as well.

A lot of UK holders have held on through thick and thin and rarely ever trade and that includes a few German and Irish shareholders in the same position.

Interesting in many ways, as Felix have good operating mines at Yarrabee with expansion in the future at Yarrabee North; Minerva with the massive 560 million tonnes of coal ( inferred) at nearby Athena; Ashton open-cut and longwall mines; Moolarben low cost open-cut and underground future mines; and in the future, Harry Brandt Project and UCC Project.


----------



## noirua (2 January 2008)

"Korean consortium joins Moolarben":  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080102/pdf/316rnjn7mn0hcq.pdf


Korean consortium pays $90 million plus 10% of development costs for 10% stake in Moolarben: Agrees to take 2.8 million tonnes of 17% ash coal, each year, at market price for the life of the mine.


----------



## michael_selway (2 January 2008)

noirua said:


> "Korean consortium joins Moolarben":  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080102/pdf/316rnjn7mn0hcq.pdf
> 
> 
> Korean consortium pays $90 million plus 10% of development costs for 10% stake in Moolarben: Agrees to take 2.8 million tonnes of 17% ash coal, each year, at market price for the life of the mine.




Hm it seems everyone wants a peice of FLX, eventually it will gettakenover in full one would suspect 

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 21.5 35.8 54.5 
DPS 6.0 3.9 19.0 12.7 *


----------



## noirua (3 January 2008)

"Moolarben Leases and Exploration Licenses":  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080102/pdf/316rv4j92xl4bn.pdf

Two new exploration Licences awarded at Moolarben and future announcement will upgrade reserves.  Underground mine awarded two mining licences.
Shallow depth coal seam found on Ulan seam.


----------



## Reefer (3 January 2008)

Not much negative news coming out of the Felix camp at the minute Noirua!
Just need to get the bl**dy court case behind us and I think we will see a real appreciation in the share price.  Looking forward to the half yearly accounts which should give us a good spurt.
It is a strange stock at times though, and extremely volatile which is probably a reflection of the tightness of the register.  I feel your $10 to $12 takeover price may look undervalued before too long.


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## noirua (4 January 2008)

Reefer said:


> Not much negative news coming out of the Felix camp at the minute Noirua!
> Just need to get the bl**dy court case behind us and I think we will see a real appreciation in the share price.  Looking forward to the half yearly accounts which should give us a good spurt.
> It is a strange stock at times though, and extremely volatile which is probably a reflection of the tightness of the register.  I feel your $10 to $12 takeover price may look undervalued before too long.




Hi Reefer et al, It looks as if Felix are managing to carry on regardless and try and forget the court cases pending:  http://mudgee.yourguide.com.au/articles/1155926.html?src=topstories

Felix stock continues to move on very light trading, 196 million shares in issue and most sitting on them. Felix trade at $8.07, up 30 cents, in meagre trading, volume 13,817 shares traded in 90 minutes.


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## Reefer (4 January 2008)

Volume 13,817. Number of trades is 58 = average trade of 238 shares.  Been trading like that for months with a few larger trades pushing up the daily average, but miniscule trades dominating.  Is it brokers accumulating or just a reflection of the number of small holdings?  I would think the brokerage would be a killer if you traded in such small quantities, unless of course you were not subject to it.
I feel someone is quietly accumulating out there, though there have been no substantial holding announcements.  Got me puzzled.


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## noirua (6 January 2008)

Coal being shipped out of the Gladstone Port, RG Tanna terminal, QLD, in January 2008.
From the Yarrabeee Mine (100%) = 113,600 tonnes
From the Minerva Mine (55%)  = 264,480 tonnes

Estimated Yarrabee sales for Y/E June 2008 at 1.8mtpa, 150,000 tonnes per month.
Estimated Minerva sales for Y/E 2008 at 2.5mtpa, 208,333 tonnes per month.


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## haemitite (6 January 2008)

Wonder if they are having a good hard look at RSP

I hold both, now that FLX has a strategic position in port capacity M&A should be on the cards


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## noirua (8 January 2008)

Thermal (benchmark) coal reaches US$91.77 a tonne, excluding shipping costs.

More details on the Korean consortium purchase of a 10% interest in Moolarben:  http://www.globalcoal.com/news/coalnews.cfm


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## noirua (13 January 2008)

Felix Resources have now fallen over 15% from their $8.70 high, not long ago. Always the bid factor in this stock and trying to work out full value on future prospects at Moolarben.

A$180 million has been paid, or will be paid, for two 10% stakes in Moolarben and A$70 million of the A$350 million for the development of the open-cut and underground mines at Moolarben. This leaves A$210 million to be paid for by Felix and includes the compulsory purchase of land.

A few think the deal with the Korean consortium was done too cheaply at A$90 million, as A$100 million was spoken about earlier on. Perhaps the taking of 2.8 mtpa of coal throughout the lifetime of the mine was a factor.

There are still the court cases outstanding, brought by Ulan Coal (90% Xstrata and 10% Mitsubishi), and if these are found in favour of the NSW Government and Felix, there will still be the matter of compulsory purchase of Ulan's land, that covers 20% of Moolarben.

Will Felix do a deal with Xstrata at the last minute and allow them 20% of Moolarben for a reduced payment? Maybe only around A$100 million, plus A$70 million towards development costs. 
That would leave Felix only having to find A$40 million to develop the mine. ( Or if you take into account the A$250 million due/paid from Sojitz and the Korean consortium: Then Felix would have covered the whole cost of Moolarben development with A$70 million over and a 60% stake). 
However, this could lead to having to revalue Felix on potential asset value and future profits, with only a 60% stake in Moolarben. The risk factor for FLX would move to almost zero at the same time.

Felix at $7.30 a share have a market cap of A$1.43 billion.
The present value of Moolarben is put at A$900 million plus A$350 million development costs. ( Felix at present own 80% of Moolarben with a further A$160 million due from Sojitz and the Korean consortium, plus A$70 million development costs.) The value will probably be enhanced when Moolarben is completed in 2010. 

Felix own 100% of the Yarrabee mine and Yarrabee North tenement. 51% of Minerva and the Athena tenement. 60% of the Ashton coalmines. UCC Project and Harrybrant anthracite tenement. Felix also have other interests in South Australia.


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## noirua (14 January 2008)

"Macquarie, UBS up 2008 thermal coal price outlook":  http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSYD14320080114

Half Yearly Report for Felix is due out this Friday 18th January.


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## Reefer (16 January 2008)

China coal shortage to continue
Wednesday Jan 16 08:17 AEDT
China, the world's largest coal consuming nation, used more coal than it produced in 2007 and will stay short through at least 2010, a coal industry official said on Tuesday.

China's demand for coal is expected to rise to 2.76 billion tonnes in 2008, from 2.62 billion tonnes in 2007, said Wu Chenghou, executive director of the Coal Sale and Transportation Association of China.

Wu estimated China produced 2.58 billion tonnes of coal in 2007, slightly above an estimate of 2.52 billion tonnes issued by the State Administration of Work Safety.

He did not comment on whether the country had drawn down coal stocks in 2007 to remain a net exporter, despite producing less than it consumed. China has not yet issued official output data for 2007, and often revises that figure several times.




Customs data released Tuesday showed the country's net exports of coal fell sharply to 2 million tonnes in 2007, compared with net exports of 25.1 million tonnes in 2006 .

By 2010, China's coal consumption will reach 3.06 billion in 2010, up 10 per cent compared with last year, more than will be satisfied by domestic production of between 2.9 billion and 3 billion tonnes, Wu told reporters at an industry conference.

Coal output in 2008 could be reduced by a number of factors, including a crackdown on mines that are unsafe, polluting or wasteful of energy, Wu said.

Some mines could also be closed during the Olympic Games in Beijing in August.

That could cause regional shortages in 2008, Wu said without further specifying. He did not give an output estimate for 2008.

During last year's meeting of the ruling Communist Party, some mines were shut and local media attributed the decision to an effort to avoid embarrassing fatalities from mine accidents, which caused an average of 10 deaths a day in 2007.


 ©AAP 2008


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## michael_selway (16 January 2008)

Reefer said:


> China coal shortage to continue
> Wednesday Jan 16 08:17 AEDT
> China, the world's largest coal consuming nation, used more coal than it produced in 2007 and will stay short through at least 2010, a coal industry official said on Tuesday.
> 
> ...




Hm coal shortage till 2010, that's a long time to have a shortage. Have to see the rest of the world consumtion and production etc

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 21.5 35.8 54.5 
DPS 6.0 3.9 19.0 12.7* 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (16 January 2008)

Felix have slipped badly in continuous light trading as sellers accept lower and lower offers. Yesterdays close at $6.65 was more than $2 down on the recent highs, 276,523 shares were traded which shows how tightly the stock is now held.
Half Yearly Report should be out this Friday and should show progress as good as the First Quarter.
Much is on the strength of the Aussie against the Greenback and hopefully the US Dollar will be more in demand in present nervous markets.


----------



## Reefer (17 January 2008)

Hit $6.20 today which is the lowest the stock has been since middle of October. Perhaps the half yearlys have been badly affected by demurrage, is Moolarben court case going against us -  we are suffering a much greater correction than all the otehr coal stocks, most of which are rising.  Very disappointed with the performance over the last few weeks.


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## michael_selway (17 January 2008)

Reefer said:


> Hit $6.20 today which is the lowest the stock has been since middle of October. Perhaps the half yearlys have been badly affected by demurrage, is Moolarben court case going against us -  we are suffering a much greater correction than all the otehr coal stocks, most of which are rising.  Very disappointed with the performance over the last few weeks.




Well it is quite pricy though, bu tlong term its great energy stock

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 22.0 35.8 54.5 
DPS 6.0 3.9 19.0 12.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (21 January 2008)

Reefer said:


> Hit $6.20 today which is the lowest the stock has been since middle of October. Perhaps the half yearlys have been badly affected by demurrage, is Moolarben court case going against us -  we are suffering a much greater correction than all the otehr coal stocks, most of which are rising.  Very disappointed with the performance over the last few weeks.




Hi Reefer, m_s et al, I decided to add some FLX stock today as the price suddenly sank below $5.60.

There has been no announcement about the court cases and Moolarben, and the agreement with the Korean consortium sees A$90 million in the bank, A$20 million immediately, and the rest at certain milestones. 
The total cost of developing all of the mines at Moolarben is A$350 million up until mid-2010. The sale of 20% gives Felix A$180 million plus Sojitz and Korean consortium pay an additional A$70 million between them for development costs. 

The second quarterly report is due out about now and the half yearly report at the end of February.

I have checked shipping out of the Gladstone Port and sales of coal have been going very well for Minerva and Yarrabee.
More difficult to work out which ships are carrying Ashton coals out of Newcastle: Though delays (demurrage) has fallen to around 15 days with 29 ships at anchor, well down on the 70+ earlier in 2007.


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## Reefer (21 January 2008)

I tried to buy back in at $5.67 today but mustn't have hit the submit button properly and by the time I established I wasn't about to double up, the bird had flown on it's way to $5.90.  But I see at the close they were much softer so may be able to get in in low $5.70's which is good buying.  Even if Moolarben goes against us there is a lot of value in the rest of the compnay, and these have definitely been oversold.


----------



## noirua (22 January 2008)

Reefer said:


> I tried to buy back in at $5.67 today but mustn't have hit the submit button properly and by the time I established I wasn't about to double up, the bird had flown on it's way to $5.90.  But I see at the close they were much softer so may be able to get in in low $5.70's which is good buying.  Even if Moolarben goes against us there is a lot of value in the rest of the compnay, and these have definitely been oversold.




Hi Reefer, You may well get your opportunity to get in lower as the London FTSE 100 index is down about 3.4% on Monday - a 2-year low. All stocks are being hit no matter what their credentials.
Big opportunities for those who keep their nerve. Well done anyway in unloading FLX when you did.
Finished at $5.71, down 35 cents, after trading during the day at $5.51 to $5.96. Shares traded at 220,336, very light trading.


----------



## noirua (22 January 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi Reefer, You may well get your opportunity to get in lower as the London FTSE 100 index is down about 3.4% on Monday - a 2-year low. All stocks are being hit no matter what their credentials.
> Big opportunities for those who keep their nerve. Well done anyway in unloading FLX when you did.
> Finished at $5.71, down 35 cents, after trading during the day at $5.51 to $5.96. Shares traded at 220,336, very light trading.




Felix opened very weak today at $5.07 and seem to strengthen as blocks of shares ranging from 7,000 to 39,000 were taken off the fence by a buyer or buyers who seem or may have come in late, it was difficult to tell as they were too fast for me.: Closed at $5.50 after a high late on at $5.60. Added a few shares early on as I do have confidence in the mining sector, particularly coal, at these levels. 
Second Quarterly has not come out yet and they may be leaving it 'till Friday.


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## noirua (22 January 2008)

Information on Felix Resources interests in Ultra Clean Coal and the hopes of implementation of sequestration in the future.   GTCC Generators obtain 50% - 55% efficiency from anthracite when compared to conventional power stations from coal at 33% - 35%, in Australia.
(Felix also has an anthracite project at Harry Brandt, near Nemo in Queensland's Bowen Basin:  http://www.felixresources.com.au/harrybrandt.html )

http://www.felixresources.com.au/ucc.html


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## noirua (23 January 2008)

ASX Announcement: "New Coal Terminal at Newcastle"
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080123/pdf/3171rb43y8x7rf.pdf


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## michael_selway (23 January 2008)

noirua said:


> ASX Announcement: "New Coal Terminal at Newcastle"
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080123/pdf/3171rb43y8x7rf.pdf




Hm not bad, it will boost production

*NEW COAL TERMINAL AT NEWCASTLE Felix is pleased to announce the start of construction by Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) of a new coal loading terminal on the Hunter River at Newcastle. Construction of the first stage of a third coal export terminal for the Port of Newcastle will begin immediately following completion yesterday of finance arrangements and the signing of a 35-year lease for the site from the New South Wales Government....*

thx

MS


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## noirua (24 January 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm not bad, it will boost production
> 
> *NEW COAL TERMINAL AT NEWCASTLE Felix is pleased to announce the start of construction by Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) of a new coal loading terminal on the Hunter River at Newcastle. Construction of the first stage of a third coal export terminal for the Port of Newcastle will begin immediately following completion yesterday of finance arrangements and the signing of a 35-year lease for the site from the New South Wales Government....*
> 
> ...





Everything is gradually falling into place for Felix's 80% owned Moolarben Project and 15.4% shareholding in NCIG. $250 million dollars has or is due to be paid by the partners in Moolarben and the financial risk falls close to zero. 
FLX are recovering from the crash to near $5.00 and trade this Afternoon at around $6.40.


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## Reefer (24 January 2008)

The shares have rebounded quite strongly today.  They need to appoint a new CFO more regularly if this is the effect it has.  Quarterly's almost upon us.


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## noirua (26 January 2008)

Thermal coal rocketed to US$103 per tonne out of the Newcastle Port on Friday on news China is to suspend coal exports for two months.


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## noirua (26 January 2008)

Reefer said:


> The shares have rebounded quite strongly today.  They need to appoint a new CFO more regularly if this is the effect it has.  Quarterly's almost upon us.




Hi reefer et al, with the sudden decision of China to suspend exports and the desperate, pay any price scenario, shortage of benchmark thermal we should see the coal producing sector very strong next week.

If Felix were able to sell 5.2 million tonnes of thermal, PCI and semi-soft at US$100+ per tonne, for a full year. Then profits could jump by UP TO AUS$250 million (exchange rates, US$ versus AUS$ could reduce this estimate), and that excludes Moolarben.
HOWEVER, in reality Felix have agreed prices for 2008 ( from 1st January 2008), from the Minerva Mine - 1.3 million tonnes attributable - at US$68 per tonne (US$73 per tonne benchmark thermal equivalent)

Prices against benchmark (coal varies to benchmark + & - on thermal and higher prices apply on PCI and semi-soft, for Felix Resources) for the Yarrabee and Ashton mines (3.9 million tonnes attributable estimate for Y/E 30/6/2008) have yet to be set and will apply from 1st April 2008.

So, Felix are only set to see increased profits from minerva for half of the year ending 30/6/2008 and for a quarter of the year for Ashton and Yarrabee. 

Will thermal coal prices hold above US$100 per tonne, that is the important question for Felix. On the UNLIKELY scenario that they do and Moolarben reaces 10mtpa (8mtpa attributable) at these prices, plus Harry Brandt and Athena. Then profits would reach unbelievable levels.

Unfortunately the price of thermal coal may fall back. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH as they say, and maybe or maybe not, it could be worth the gamble.


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## michael_selway (28 January 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi reefer et al, with the sudden decision of China to suspend exports and the desperate, pay any price scenario, shortage of benchmark thermal we should see the coal producing sector very strong next week.
> 
> If Felix were able to sell 5.2 million tonnes of thermal, PCI and semi-soft at US$100+ per tonne, for a full year. Then profits could jump by UP TO AUS$250 million (exchange rates, US$ versus AUS$ could reduce this estimate), and that excludes Moolarben.
> HOWEVER, in reality Felix have agreed prices for 2008 ( from 1st January 2008), from the Minerva Mine - 1.3 million tonnes attributable - at US$68 per tonne (US$73 per tonne benchmark thermal equivalent)
> ...




Long term i think coal is the only comomodity to do well, mainly because of increasing electricity usage around the world, hardly any alternatives, unlike oil

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 22.0 64.4 99.3 
DPS 14.0 11.3 30.8 44.5 *

thx

MS


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## Real1ty (28 January 2008)

> ``It's difficult to see in the next 18 months to two years who would have the capacity to significantly increase supply,'' Graham Chapman, managing director at Richmond, U.K.- based consultant Energy Edge Ltd., said by telephone today.
> 
> In Australia, the world's biggest coal exporter, Macarthur Coal Ltd. and Wesfarmers Ltd. said they wouldn't be able to meet contract supplies from some mines in Queensland state after heavy rain. China ordered domestic coal shippers to halt exports after heavy snow and rail congestion shut supplies to 5 percent of the country's coal-fired generators.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aoJ1ht8xmxIE&refer=energy

It would appear that the outlook is still one of sustained high prices, even with a US slowdown.


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## Reefer (30 January 2008)

Noirua
Looking forward to your expert analysis now the quarterlys are out.

There are some good signs with Minerva out-performing budget, Yarrabee extending it's resource, demurrage down, no flood problems, and coal market strengthening in "demand and price".

I guess the figures are pretty good but I'm unsure how we compare to our peers and competitors.  Coal sold is up 23% on the corresponding half year from 2007, but the Ashton Underground has had a huge impact there.  The company states that sales from both Yarrabee and Ashton were shunted into the next quarter because of shipping delays, otherwise the figures would  have been better again.

Not too sure what to make about it all - released on close of trading so no statement from the market, but my belief is we have a false market in this stock anyway, based ofn the huge number of miniscule trades. A difficult stock to both buy and sell now as available shares keep getting soaked up.

Will wait for your appraisal.


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## noirua (1 February 2008)

Reefer said:


> Noirua
> Looking forward to your expert analysis now the quarterlys are out.
> 
> There are some good signs with Minerva out-performing budget, Yarrabee extending it's resource, demurrage down, no flood problems, and coal market strengthening in "demand and price".
> ...




Hi Reefer et al, You seem to have summed it all up as well as anybody. 

Felix look as if they will book about $90 million ($81 million profit) from Moolarben in Y/E 2008 against $61 million ($46 million profit) in 2007. Costs set to fall $20 million.
Coal sales from Yarrabee may well come out the same as 2007 (1.6 million tonnes) and Minerva rise from 1.04 million tonnes to about 1.2 million tonnes. Ashton looks to have moved to cutting back at the opencut mine and going full out on the longwall mine and coal sales should rise from 1,110,000 tonnes to around 1.8 million tonnes.

Minerva coal has the advantage of being shipped on its own and not mixed with other coals at the port. There are rail problems for Minerva and Yarrabee and Minerva may not reach the 1.3 million tonne attributable target sales and Yarrabee the 1.8 million tonne target.
Ashton may well produce its target 2.2 - 2.4 million tonnes of coal attributable to Felix, however, sales may be as low as 1.8 million tonnes. 

It was hoped Felix would sell 4.8 to 5.2 million tonnes but may possibly fall short at 4.6 million tonnes. That is well up on last years 3.7 million tonnes. 

Profits before tax and including asset sales may well reach $140 - $150 million for 2008.


----------



## noirua (4 February 2008)

Felix continue on with extremely light trading as hardly anyone with reasonable holdings are willing to sell. Close to $8 again at $7.93, up 18 cents.

Half Yearly report due out end of February. Further announcements expected on upgrades of reserves at Minerva and Yarrabee. Xstrata court case over 20% of Moolarben looks set to roll on and on as Felix continue to develop the mine regardless.


----------



## michael_selway (4 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix continue on with extremely light trading as hardly anyone with reasonable holdings are willing to sell. Close to $8 again at $7.93, up 18 cents.
> 
> Half Yearly report due out end of February. Further announcements expected on upgrades of reserves at Minerva and Yarrabee. Xstrata court case over 20% of Moolarben looks set to roll on and on as Felix continue to develop the mine regardless.




Yep FLX looking good right now

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.5 68.8 87.9 
DPS 6.0 3.5 23.6 12.7 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (5 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi Reefer et al, You seem to have summed it all up as well as anybody.
> 
> Felix look as if they will book about $90 million ($81 million profit) from Moolarben in Y/E 2008 from asset sales, against $61 million ($46 million profit) in 2007. Costs set to fall $20 millionin Y/E 30th June 2008.
> Coal sales from Yarrabee may well come out the same as 2007 (1.7 million tonnes) and Minerva rise from 1.04 million tonnes to about 1.2 million tonnes. Ashton looks to have moved to cutting back at the opencut mine and going full out on the longwall mine and coal sales should rise from 1,110,000 tonnes to around 1.8 million tonnes.
> ...





Following on from the above: 
The profit guess for Y/E 30th June 2008, $140 - $150 million, are worked out on the basis of coal prices for thermal out of Minerva for export at US$52 per tonne in the first half year and US$68, agreed, in the second half.  Also that the average exchange rate A$ v US$ is an average A$1.08 to the Greenback in the second half year.

Coal prices out of Yarrabee and Ashton set against a benchmark figure of US$55.65 a tonne in the first 9 months, and US$85 per tonne in the last three months, the latter not yet agreed.

Profits would gain or lose by about A$2 million by any agreement above or below US$85 per tonne (based on benchmark thermal) for Ashton and Yarrabee coal. Coal from these mines varies between thermal, PCI and semi-soft and the US$85 per tonne should vary by the same ratio as previously indicated by Felix Resources.


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## noirua (5 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Following on from the above:
> The profit guess for Y/E 30th June 2008, $140 - $150 million, are worked out on the basis of coal prices for thermal out of Minerva for export at US$52 per tonne in the first half year and US$68, agreed, in the second half.  Also that the average exchange rate A$ v US$ is an average A$1.08 to the Greenback in the second half year.
> 
> Coal prices out of Yarrabee and Ashton set against a benchmark figure of US$55.65 a tonne in the first 9 months, and US$85 per tonne in the last three months, the latter not yet agreed.
> ...





Clarified last paragraph above by adding "FOR EVERY US$1 PRICE MOVEMENT".
Felix share price has continued to power on after the following report (up 46 cents at $8.47). "Australian, South African Coal jumps to record on supply curbs":  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQt.oNGyI70M&refer=home


----------



## haemitite (6 February 2008)

Citi slapped a 11.10 target on FLX today.

Forecast EPS of over $1.50/share in 2009 and 2010 puts them on a PE of 5 to 5.5.


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## noirua (7 February 2008)

Felix reached $8.90 today, up 51 cents, just 3 cents short of their 7 year intraday closing high. 

All a bit of a hope from two to four years away, but eventual production of 13 million tonnes (Felix 10.4 million tonnes attributable) per annum of thermal coal from the low cost Moolarben mines, at todays prices, makes possible profits make the mind boggle. Infact I'd prefer not to estimate if the price stays over US$100 per tonne. 

Price of thermal coal could of course fall when new port extensions are completed in Eastern Australia and if a recession in America happens.


----------



## michael_selway (7 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix reached $8.90 today, up 51 cents, just 3 cents short of their 7 year intraday closing high.
> 
> All a bit of a hope from two to four years away, but eventual production of 13 million tonnes (Felix 10.4 million tonnes attributable) per annum of thermal coal from the low cost Moolarben mines, at todays prices, makes possible profits make the mind boggle. Infact I'd prefer not to estimate if the price stays over US$100 per tonne.
> 
> Price of thermal coal could of course fall when new port extensions are completed in Eastern Australia and if a recession in America happens.




Hi 10.4 mil pa is nice, but whats better is the 30+ year mine life at these levels! 

Btw noirua, what other coal stocks do u have (if you dont mind me asking)?

thx

MS


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## haemitite (7 February 2008)

FLX has been a great ride, which I'll keep travelling on.

But I like RSP even more, very surprised it hadn't poked into the low to mid high 3's with the recent price surge. Xstrata's bid has gone nowhere at 2.85

WHC worth a look as well.


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## noirua (8 February 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi 10.4 mil pa is nice, but whats better is the 30+ year mine life at these levels!
> 
> Btw noirua, what other coal stocks do u have (if you dont mind me asking)?
> thx MS




It was good to see Felix hit an intraday high of $9.20 yesterday and close at $9.15, up 76 cents - prices not seen since 2000.  A 24 year intraday high would need Felix to embrace $13.51 or around $65.00 for an all-time 38 year high.

Felix are starting to look further at their massive 5 billion tonnes low sulpur sub-bitumous coal, inferred resource, at Phillipson, S.A. The Alice Springs to Darwin rail link runs smack through the centre of it. 

On coal stocks, I'm holding FLX, CEY, GCL, COK, PRC and WES.  Showing green credentials with LNC.


----------



## j4mesa (8 February 2008)

RIV has been trading pretty strong although not as strong as FLX. However not many people mention it.....

noirua, since you are keeping an eye on the coal shares, have you ever encountered this share?


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## michael_selway (9 February 2008)

noirua said:


> It was good to see Felix hit an intraday high of $9.20 yesterday and close at $9.15, up 76 cents - prices not seen since 2000.  A 24 year intraday high would need Felix to embrace $13.51 or around $65.00 for an all-time 38 year high.
> 
> Felix are starting to look further at their massive 5 billion tonnes low sulpur sub-bitumous coal, inferred resource, at Phillipson, S.A. The Alice Springs to Darwin rail link runs smack through the centre of it.
> 
> On coal stocks, I'm holding FLX, CEY, GCL, COK, PRC and WES.  Showing green credentials with LNC.




Hm did FLX really reach an all time high of $38.00?

Btw they keep updating and upping the numbers

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 23.5 78.8 87.9 
DPS 6.0 7.7 10.5 12.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (9 February 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm did FLX really reach an all time high of $38.00?
> 
> Btw they keep updating and upping the numbers
> 
> ...




Hi m_s, Unfortunately, I bought 200 shares in Felix Resources - then Meekatharra Minerals - for $3.43 each and as we have had a 1 for 10 consolidation that equates to $34.30.  I thought I was doing well by getting them well below their peak of $6.50 ($65.00). ( I can't of course remember the exact price at the peak but that was roughly it - the times when Central Pacific and Southern Pacific were top dogs in the oil from shale boom - Central Pacific peaked at around $90.00 in the Great Mining Boom and later slumped not far from zero. I think Central Pacific became part of Southern Pacific later.

The shale oil dream finally collapsed in December 2003, a very sad end:  http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/12/02/1070351580970.html
Unfortunately the sad demise of "the rundle twins" and a fortune lost. 

Unfortunately I destroyed all the weekly newsletters from those days, they would make interesting reading today.


----------



## noirua (10 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, Unfortunately, I bought 200 shares in Felix Resources - then Meekatharra Minerals - for $3.43 each IN 1983 and as we have had a 1 for 10 consolidation that equates to $34.30.  I thought I was doing well by getting them well below their peak of $6.50 ($65.00) IN 1982. ( I can't of course remember the exact price at the peak but that was roughly it - the times when Central Pacific and Southern Pacific were top dogs in the oil from shale boom - Central Pacific peaked at around $90.00 IN 1982 DURING the Great Coal and Shale Oil boom of the early 1980's, and later slumped not far from zero. I think Central Pacific became part of Southern Pacific later AFTER A TAKEOVER.)
> 
> The shale oil dream finally collapsed in December 2003, a very sad end:  http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/12/02/1070351580970.html
> Unfortunately the sad demise of "the rundle twins" and a fortune lost.
> ...





Added some dates above as that makes it easier to comprehend.
A posting on the UK's iii bulletin board says that Goldmans Tokyo have issued a buy not on Felix Resources.  Not able to say what price etc was mentioned.


----------



## noirua (12 February 2008)

Some comment on Felix's returns in the last second quarterly statement:  http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1042243/


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## noirua (14 February 2008)

Felix Resources continue their upward spiral to $9.87, up 61 cents, on the back of higher coal prices and forward earnings estimates from Citi.
Felix high for 2000 was $13.50 equivalent.


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## noirua (16 February 2008)

Quite a lot of importance is placed on the Half Yearly results out on 28th February. 
There may be more on the court case, set for March, between Ulan Coal Pty and the (!st def.) NSW Government and (2nd def) Moolarben Coal Pty, over the land representing 20% of the Moolarben opencut mine, owned by Ulan.
Also, whether an agreement is in place for coal pricing at Yarrabee and Ashton from 1st April 08.
Coal sales out of Gladstone, from Minerva, are set to exceed 300,000 tonnes over the next month, priced at US$68 per tonne.


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## noirua (18 February 2008)

Felix Resources continue their relentless upward climb after reports of record thermal, PCI and semi-soft coal prices out of the Newcastle dock. Prices of thermal at over US$139 a tonne against prices fixed in 2007 at around US$55 per tonne.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ald__YXFuFs0&refer=home

Felix $10.24, up 34 cents after 2 hours trading.


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## michael_selway (18 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources continue their relentless upward climb after reports of record thermal, PCI and semi-soft coal prices out of the Newcastle dock. Prices of thermal at over US$139 a tonne against prices fixed in 2007 at around US$55 per tonne.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ald__YXFuFs0&refer=home
> 
> Felix $10.24, up 34 cents after 2 hours trading.




Yep cant wait for half yearly! hopefully all good there

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 21.0 81.7 87.9 
DPS 6.0 9.7 10.5 12.7 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (19 February 2008)

A video report from CNBC gives particular mention to Gloucester Coal and Felix Resources "Bullish on Coal":  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=641607231&play=1
Video is 12 days old.


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## noirua (22 February 2008)

Felix Resources are to enter the ASX 200 All Australian index after close of business on 28th February 2008.


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## noirua (22 February 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Yep cant wait for half yearly! hopefully all good there
> thx MS



After looking at results from GCL and CEY in their half year reports, profits down, it will be interesting to see if Felix were able to increase profits as coal sales were up 23%, mostly in the first quarter; as sales were down 3% in the second quarter due to rail problems from Minerva and longwall changeover at Ashton.


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## noirua (25 February 2008)

Felix hit another 7-year-high at $10.31 today, up 46 cents. The Half Yearly Report is out this Thursday, and upgrades on resources at Ashton, Yarabbee and Minerva mines are expected. Agreement for prices on thermal coal from April 1st should be set at around US$100 per tonne for benchmark thermal coal.


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## noirua (27 February 2008)

Felix closed at $11.10, ahead of this Thursdays Half Yearly Report - a 29 fold increase since the 38 cent low in 2003.
Increases in spot thermal out of Newcastle at US$137 per tonne and RIO demanding a 143% lift in prices from April are principal factors here.


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## Reefer (28 February 2008)

Half yearly's out and are up to expectations.

28 February 2008
Australian Securities Exchange
Company Announcements
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
FELIX ANNOUNCES RECORD HALF YEAR PROFIT
Felix is pleased to advise shareholders that it has posted a record profit for the half year ending December 2007.
The result is a profit before tax of A$68.8 million made up of an $18.9 million operating profit and $49.9 million abnormal profit due to the payment by Sojitz of the second tranche of its Moolarben 10% purchase following grant of mining leases.
The directors are pleased to announce the payment for the first time of an interim dividend of 3 cents per share unfranked.
This result relates to a NPAT of $50.6 million although no tax is payable due to accumulated tax losses and R&D allowance.
The Managing Director of Felix, Brian Flannery, said the result is very pleasing despite some $4.5 million paid out in demurrage. We have also completed, this week, the sale of a further 10% of Moolarben to the “Korean Consortium” which was previously announced on 2 January 2008. This transaction will result in Felix receiving approximately A$90 million during February/March. We have also signed five coal supply contracts with Korean power companies for a total of 2.8mtpa commencing second half 2009. The contracts will be for the life of Moolarben and price negotiated each year.
By the end of March, Felix will be in a strong financial position with some $170 million in cash and a total bank debt of $96 million of which $57 million is non-recourse. The profit from the Korean transaction will be taken up in the second half and this combined with substantial coal price increases augers well for our full year profit.
Key highlights:
• Record before tax profit of $68.8 million
• First interim dividend paid by Felix of 3 cents per share unfranked
• Substantial cash reserves for Moolarben development
• Negative nett debt
• Strong increase in coal prices for 2008/2009
• 480,000 tonnes of thermal coal sales hedged for calendar 2009 at an average selling price of US$101.69/tonne
• Substantial increase in resources for Ashton open cut semi-soft coking coal and Yarrabee open cut PCI coal as per the attached statement
• Feasibility study for expanding Yarrabee PCI production including a small coal preparation plant documented for March/April board discussion.
• Minerva production YTD exceeds budget of 2.5mtpa despite wet weather delays
Felix Resources Limited ABN 75 000 754 174
Postal: PO BOX 10470 Brisbane Adelaide Street QLD 4000 Delivery: 316 Adelaide Street Brisbane QLD 4000 Australia
T (61-7) 3248 7900 F (61-7) 3211 7328 E admin@felixresources.com.au W www.felixresources.com.au
• Ashton longwall production slightly behind budget YTD due to a hard two metre vertical dyke encountered in centre of current panel. Expect another 7 weeks of lower retreat rates. Development of third panel well advanced.
• Additional exploration licences No. 7073 &7074 granted at Moolarben. Exploration to commence in next period over this 1145 hectares.
• New coal terminal at Newcastle (NCIG): under construction; dredging underway; shiploader under fabrication with delivery February 2009; stacker reclaimers under fabrication with delivery to site late 2008; and port commissioning early 2010
• Demurrage at Gladstone is decreasing although there are some delays with multi producer shipments which has a flow-on effect for Yarrabee shipments as Yarrabee customers tend to ship in multi producer shipments.
• Demurrage at Newcastle remains high and unacceptable even though the vessel queue reduced from 75 in July 2007 to around 30 in early 2008. Mr Greiner, previously Premier of New South Wales, chairing meetings of producers to attempt to find common ground to divide up the port capacity for 2008-2010.


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## michael_selway (28 February 2008)

Reefer said:


> Half yearly's out and are up to expectations.
> 
> 28 February 2008
> Australian Securities Exchange
> ...




Hi first ever dividend, yay!

thx

MS

*First interim dividend paid by Felix of 3 cents per share unfranked*


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## Reefer (29 February 2008)

See our hedged price for thermal coal is $101 USD for calendar 2009 so Noirua was spot on with his estimate of agreement prices.  Think he must have a mole on the board. haha.
Felix also announced substantial increase in resources for Ashton open cut semi-soft coking coal and Yarrabee open cut PCI coal,  and we have $170 mill in the jar ready to plough into the Moolarben start up (or pay the costs of the court battle).
All looking good imo.


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## noirua (29 February 2008)

I have to try and be careful what I say, as the 29 fold increase in Felix Resources, since 2003, has made the company a high percentage of my portfolio.

A price around $11.00 is looking for a dividend, be it 4 years away, of around 60 cents a share and a forward PE ratio of around 6. That is looking for profit, after tax, of around $360 million for year ending 2012. IMHO

Felix need to find about $280 million to develop the open-cut mines at Moolarben and the underground mines. They have $170 million in the bank but have over $90 million in loans. That means they need $200 million more or if they maintain the loans, just over $100 million more.

How much profit to be added in the second half of 2008, to June 30th 2008? Well, about $72 million from asset sales, ( $90 million in the bank) after taxation. Extra profit from Minerva sales and high Ashton and Yarrabee prices in the last quarter, should see a trading profit at $70 million for the second half against about $20 million in the first half. 
Cash in the Bank at 30/6/2008 should reach $300 million, enough to pay down the $90+ million in loans. 
Profit for Y/E 30/6/2008 should reach around $210 to 250 million before tax.

Thus, the Felix 80% development cost of $280 million for Moolarben looks only a very small risk indeed. 

Everything is now on a go ahead at Moolarben in 2009. Costs at the mine are very low and were at AUS$30 a tonne in 2005 and may have esclalated to AUS$40 - $42 a tonne by 2009. Felix should have attributable coal from the open-cut mine at 3.2mtpa by Y/E 30/6/2010, rising to 8mtpa by 2012.


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## noirua (2 March 2008)

Continuing the 6 monthly bullish report by Felix Resources, Mr Brian Flannery, MD, outlines Felix's position at Boardroom radio:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/41987


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## noirua (12 March 2008)

Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group in which Felix Resources have a 15.45% interest:  http://www.ncig.com.au


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## noirua (18 March 2008)

Felix Resources jumped to $10.87, up 97 cents, in what was brisk trading for this normally lightly traded stock.

Felix are thought to have sold larger tonnage of coal from the Minerva mine in the last month, from Gladstone shipping records, at market prices. This was after several miners declared false majeure in Queensland after bad weather. An upgrade at the washery at the Yarrabee mine, QLD, has meant increasing availability of coal as PCI coal.
Felix mines escaped the flooding.


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## michael_selway (18 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources jumped to $10.87, up 97 cents, in what was brisk trading for this normally lightly traded stock.
> 
> Felix are thought to have sold larger tonnage of coal from the Minerva mine in the last month, from Gladstone shipping records, at market prices. This was after several miners declared false majeure in Queensland after bad weather. An upgrade at the washery at the Yarrabee mine, QLD, has meant increasing availability of coal as PCI coal.
> Felix mines escaped the flooding.




Yeah some of these coal stocks have really held their ground in this bearish market, which is good to see. Noirua, are u holdign FLX for the longer term or plan to sell it it gets "high"?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 33.4 97.3 117.2 
DPS 6.0 9.8 11.6 12.7 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (19 March 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Yeah some of these coal stocks have really held their ground in this bearish market, which is good to see. Noirua, are u holdign FLX for the longer term or plan to sell it it gets "high"?
> MS



Hi m_s, FLX are already high and I'm gambling by holding on to a stock that has gone up by 28 times its 2003 low. I've held Felix for nearly 25 years so maybe that's the longer term. 
I believe there are some families that have held the Alliance Trust since 1888, that makes it 120 years.


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## noirua (19 March 2008)

Felix Resources stock has experienced a sudden change in the pattern of trading this week, after suffering very light trading for over 1 year.
Yesterday rose 90 cents before closing up just 10 cents. Trading today up 95 cents, at $10.93, but patches of weakness appearing, followed by sudden renewed strength.
Felix are a very tightly held stock with former White Mining shareholders with nearly 50% and AMCI with 19.2%. Felix hold about $180 million in cash with debts totalling $96 million.


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## noirua (20 March 2008)

Felix Resources was very weak early on falling $1.10 to $9.47.  A large order arrived for 2 million shares and took all available stock off the fence at $10.25.
Felix trading has been unusually volatile this week after a long quiet period.
Trading has now gone quiet as buyer appears to have withdrawn.


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## noirua (25 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources was very weak early on falling $1.10 to $9.47.  A large order arrived for 2 million shares and took all available stock off the fence at $10.25.
> Felix trading has been unusually volatile this week after a long quiet period.
> Trading has now gone quiet as buyer appears to have withdrawn.




The final tally was just over 2 million shares last Thursday that went through at $10.25.
Felix now trade well up at $10.90 only just off their 2008 high.
The first of the two outstanding Court cases will take place in April at The NSW Supreme Court of Appeal - Ulan Mining (10% Mitsubishi and 90% Xstrata) appeal the decision in favour of NSW Government and the second defendant, Moolarben Coal ( 80% Felix Resources, 10% Sojitz and 10% Korean Consortium).


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## noirua (28 March 2008)

Felix Resources have continued their bullish ways and stopped just a tad short of the $12.00 mark at $11.95, up 95 cents.

I'd like to post a rumour or some brilliant news, but there appears nothing that is not known already.
Xstrata and Vale seem to have given up on their merger plans, but Felix with a $2.3 billion market cap are only in the minnow market compared with these giants.


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## noirua (28 March 2008)

Felix Resources MD, Mr Brian Flannery, outlined in his last Half Year report, last month, the increased reserves at Yarrabee and Ashton Mines. In particular the longer term possibilities of the reserves at Yarrabee North where exploration is continuing.
The Athena Prospect, near Minerva, is also being evaluated as a longer term mine with inferred resource around 560 million tonnes of thermal coal, similar to that of Minerva.
South Australian tenements are also being explored where there is mineralization and 5 billion tonnes, inferred resource, of sub-bitumous coal.
Felix Resources closed at a 2008 high of $12.04, up $1.04 on the day.


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## michael_selway (29 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources MD, Mr Brian Flannery, outlined in his last Half Year report, last month, the increased reserves at Yarrabee and Ashton Mines. In particular the longer term possibilities of the reserves at Yarrabee North where exploration is continuing.
> The Athena Prospect, near Minerva, is also being evaluated as a longer term mine with inferred resource around 560 million tonnes of thermal coal, similar to that of Minerva.
> South Australian tenements are also being explored where there is mineralization and 5 billion tonnes, inferred resource, of sub-bitumous coal.
> Felix Resources closed at a 2008 high of $12.04, up $1.04 on the day.




Hi Noirua, yep these coal stocks keep setting new highs, plenty of reserves for FLX.

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 41.1 112.9 141.4 
DPS 6.0 9.8 18.0 12.6 *



> Date: 29/2/2008
> Author: Stephen Wisenthal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 76
> Felix Resources has reported a 12 per cent rise in first-half profit to $A50.5million. Pre-tax operating profit improved to $A18 .9 million over the sixmonths to 31 December 2007. The company expects work on its Moolarben coal minein the New South Wales Upper Hunter region to commence in June 2008. Felixshares closed $A0.10 higher on 28 February, at $A11.20. Meanwhile, WhitehavenCoal has posted a $A372,000 loss for the six months to 31 December 2007.Whitehaven stock closed at $A3.55 on 28 February 2008, a $A0.20 fall






> http://sog.globalcoal.com/images/sog/27_3_2008_weekly.gif


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## noirua (29 March 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, yep these coal stocks keep setting new highs, plenty of reserves for FLX.




Hi m_s, I have hunted around the internet, newspapers and a few other contacts about Felix Resources. 

I believe there was some talk, this has been running on for years though, that there were rumours again about a tie-up with MCC.  
Felix market cap at $12.04 is around $2.3 billion and Macarthur's at $13.58 is around $2.9 billion: That does not really look likely to bring about a bid situation. 
Macarthur suffered badly in the floods, though both companies are strong in PCI coal, particularly MCC, in QLD.
The substantial holders in Felix have 70% of the company and are unlikely to see that much of a benefit by joining MCC, IMHO.


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## noirua (30 March 2008)

Some information about Felix Resources from this website:  http://www.BuySellSignals.net/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_841.pdf
Lots of information but fails to mention that stock is tightly held and no estimates of future profits etc., O.K. I suppose, if you don't know anything about FLX, if you do, its just a jumble sale of info.


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## noirua (1 April 2008)

For some reason Felix Resources is not a very popular stock on ASF despite having achieved a 33-fold increase since 2003 and trading around $12.25 today. 
Felix have moved from a minnow market cap of $25 million to around $2.3 billion in under 5 years. Now the seventh largest miner in Australia.

Managing Director Mr Brian Flannery has moved from a quite ordinary Aussie Director of a coal mining company to one of the richest people in Australia. 

No way of guessing the road ahead for certain but today Coal is King.


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## michael_selway (1 April 2008)

noirua said:


> For some reason Felix Resources is not a very popular stock on ASF despite having achieved a 33-fold increase since 2003 and trading around $12.25 today.
> Felix have moved from a minnow market cap of $25 million to around $2.3 billion in under 5 years. Now the seventh largest miner in Australia.
> 
> Managing Director Mr Brian Flannery has moved from a quite ordinary Aussie Director of a coal mining company to one of the richest people in Australia.
> ...




Hi Noirua yes i agree, btw how do u know FLX is the 7th largest Australian miner? 

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 41.1 112.9 141.4 
DPS 6.0 9.8 18.0 12.6 *


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## noirua (2 April 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua yes i agree, btw how do u know FLX is the 7th largest Australian miner?




Hi m_s, The link on my post 576 states that Felix Resources is the 4th largest by market capitalisation. Another link, gives Felix as the 7th largest miner by capitalisation:  http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySe...ockResearch.do?market=Australia&companyid=841
Felix held $180 million in cash and this is thought to be nearer $200 million now.


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## Reefer (4 April 2008)

11.07am and about to say goodbye to the $12 range.  Volumes have been increasing over the last month or so, think something is in the wind. Possibly Chinese interests securing future supplies, Xstrat having a dip, who knows.
No change in significant holding notices so perhaps the buying is across the board.  Tax department is going to love this when we eventually sell.


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## Reefer (4 April 2008)

Sorry I posted a few minutes too early.  Has smashed it's way up to $13.47.
Few available on the Sell side.  Handy gain for you Noirua on the $5.50 you paid two months back.  This has been a massive increase.


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## noirua (4 April 2008)

Reefer said:


> 11.07am and about to say goodbye to the $12 range.  Volumes have been increasing over the last month or so, think something is in the wind. Possibly Chinese interests securing future supplies, Xstrat having a dip, who knows.
> No change in significant holding notices so perhaps the buying is across the board.  Tax department is going to love this when we eventually sell.



Hi Reefer, You'r right, Felix Resources have shot up $1.28 to $13.74 - through their 2,000 high of $13.50.  I don't think Felix supply any coal to China and interest is more likely from South Korea or Japan.

As you infer, something unusal is happening here.  All news is known and if a bid comes it needs the agreement of the major shareholders, who have 71% of the stock. Some may think this would mean only a very high bid would be successful.


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## Reefer (4 April 2008)

Punched through $15 and must be a speeding ticket coming up.  The tightness of this stock is frustrating buyers.  However on past intraday performances, may well close at $12. A very volatile stock.


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## Reefer (4 April 2008)

Just taken a look at the trades and nothing much going on at all except fro bot trading and broker housekeeping. Price leapt from $14.00 to $15.03 in a microsecond and a minute later dropped from $14.99 to $13.75 in a microsecond.  Perhaps the ASX needs to look at more than speeding tickets.


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## michael_selway (4 April 2008)

Reefer said:


> Just taken a look at the trades and nothing much going on at all except fro bot trading and broker housekeeping. Price leapt from $14.00 to $15.03 in a microsecond and a minute later dropped from $14.99 to $13.75 in a microsecond.  Perhaps the ASX needs to look at more than speeding tickets.




HI wow $15 for no apparent reason

NHC has been well this past week it appears past $3!!!

Thanks

MS


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## prawn_86 (4 April 2008)

Reefer,

No need for the price commentary. People who are interested can easily see the price on their screens without an update on the forum every half hour 

thanks

Prawn


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## AussiePaul72 (4 April 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Reefer,
> 
> No need for the price commentary. People who are interested can easily see the price on their screens without an update on the forum every half hour
> 
> ...




Prawn, I hardly think todays posts were a commentary on price every half hour....thats a silly comment and doesn't encourage people to post interesting info on the forum. Give these guys a break please.
I found the posts interesting and the point of the posts was not to update ASFer's on current price but more to post on the run in SP and also volatility in SP from a tightly held stock.


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## noirua (5 April 2008)

Xstrata are the World's largest exporters of thermal coal and they have recently fought off a bid by the Brazilian Mining Giant, Vale. 
There may be thoughts, though there are no rumours anywhere I can see, that Vale could become interested in Felix Resources. 
Vale would be aware of previous interest by Xstrata in Felix's Moolarben Project and that Xstrata, through their 90% owned subsiduary Ulan Coal, are tied up in the NSW Appeal Courts over their land that covers 20% of Moolarben, during April and May.
Felix Resources have thermal and semi-soft coal interests in N.S.W. and Queensland. Present attributable production is about 5mtpa and will rise eventually to 13mtpa when Moolarben reaches full production. The Athena future mine has similar reserves to Moolarben and may be developed about 5 years down the line. The Harry Brandt anthracite mine is likely to be brought to production in about 4 years. Felix also have sub-bitumous coal reserves of 5 billion tonnes inferred, in South Australia.


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## countryboy (5 April 2008)

sorry prawn..this type of price commentry has made me alot of money.I dont have the time to watch all these screens so on downtime log into a range of sights to check out whats moving etc including weekends

I know this sounds outrageous but sometimes i only look at the HC front page to see how many people have posted a message on a particular thread and move straight onto my stockbroker

we are not all into long term holds with heaps of info
as one poster says "the trend is your friend"

cheers


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## noirua (7 April 2008)

An interesting week ahead for coal miners as BHP complete their latest round of agreements with Japan and South Korea for coal prices from April onwards.  Reports are that proposed prices are to be accepted.
Every US$ on the coal price, above US$55.40 benchmark thermal, adds about US$5 million to Felix Resources profits at 5mtpa. Coal sales should rise to 13mtpa in about 4 years time.


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## noirua (7 April 2008)

noirua said:


> An interesting week ahead for coal miners as BHP complete their latest round of agreements with Japan and South Korea for coal prices from April onwards.  Reports are that proposed prices are to be accepted.
> Every US$ on the coal price, above US$55.40 benchmark thermal, adds about US$5 million to Felix Resources profits at 5mtpa. Coal sales should rise to 13mtpa in about 4 years time.



Felix Resources, like others in the coal sector, will see a massive increase in profits due to the rise in benchmark thermal (6,322(GAR), Kilocalories per tonne, benchmark) to US$125 per tonne.
In a full year, and allowing for inflation costs, Felix could see a rise of A$350 million in before tax profits, at 5mtpa sales. 
If, and it is a big IF, prices stay at these high levels, then with production at 13mtpa and attributable to Felix, in 2011, could raise profits substantially further with the low cost Moolarben mine. There are also other mines to come onstream. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUST1152120080407


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## michael_selway (7 April 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources, like others in the coal sector, will see a massive increase in profits due to the rise in benchmark thermal (6,322(GAR), Kilocalories per tonne, benchmark) to US$125 per tonne.
> In a full year, and allowing for inflation costs, Felix could see a rise of A$350 million in before tax profits, at 5mtpa sales.
> If, and it is a big IF, prices stay at these high levels, then with production at 13mtpa and attributable to Felix, in 2011, could raise profits substantially further with the low cost Moolarben mine. There are also other mines to come onstream.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUST1152120080407




Hi Noirua, do u know the no. of shares FLX have diluted currently?

thx

MS

Its really going to be interesting whatthe enxt few years will bring for these coal miners etc


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## noirua (9 April 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, do u know the no. of shares FLX have diluted currently
> Its really going to be interesting whatthe enxt few years will bring for these coal miners etc



I haven't posted figures on the number of shares diluted as I cannot get it properly comfirmed. I see you have your ear to the ground!
Fibora Limited (associated with the company CFO) have sold 4.5 million shares and Covelane 145,000 shares. I believe there was a further liquidation of 3 million shares at $10.85 and $10.25, and perhaps as many as 2 million other shares.
I haven't seen any ASX announcements and the above should be taken as unconfirmed. Whether this was deliberately done to satisfy the ASX so Felix got an ASX200 listing, I do not know.


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## noirua (10 April 2008)

noirua said:


> Xstrata are the World's largest exporters of thermal coal and they have recently fought off a bid by the Brazilian Mining Giant, Vale.
> There may be thoughts, though there are no rumours anywhere I can see, that Vale could become interested in Felix Resources.



The following link shows that Vale (Cia. Vale do Rio Doce) and Xstrata, are interested in obtaining coal assets and interests in the coal sector:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCePpIoFdHL8


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## noirua (15 April 2008)

Felix Resources trade at a little under $12.00 and await the third quarter report that will show the extent of coal sales, in about 10 days time. There were a few shipping of higher price coal out of Ashton in this period and a big uplift in sales of Minerva Coal, out of Gladstone, at higher prices. Most Felix coal will lock into Thermal coal benchmark prices at around US$125 per tonne, from this April.


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## noirua (18 April 2008)

Felix are continuing to explore the Phillipson Tenement in South Australia at EL3386 for minerals and establishment of sub-bitumous coals already found in the area. (EL2717, RL100 and RL104 are under an option agreement with NRG Flinders).


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## noirua (23 April 2008)

Felix Resources stock price has reached $13.79, up 59 cents on Wednesday. This is on the back of the SMH article that confirmed Macarthur Coal are in talks with Xstrata and a major holder has been in earlier talks concerning the sale of their stake:  http://business.smh.com.au/ill-sell-but-only-for-a-premium/20080421-27mz.html

Felix await their 3rd Quarter Report, due out by the end of April. The NSW Court Appeal Case by Ulan Mining is scheduled to be heard on 28th/29th April 2008.


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## noirua (28 April 2008)

As Felix Resources heads for the $15.00 mark, 39 fold increase on the 2003 low, its getting increasingly difficult to value this stock. 
It means looking towards 2010/11 or even out to 2012/14, to see what eventual production will bring. 13mtpa is forecast for 2010/11 with further mines adding to production by 2012/14.
Is there a takeover factor in the share price?  If there is, it means someone thinks the major shareholders, they have nearly 70% of Felix, will accept a bid. That bid would have to be very high indeed and value Felix Resources at full future value. Is there any company willing to go for it?


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## michael_selway (28 April 2008)

noirua said:


> As Felix Resources heads for the $15.00 mark, 39 fold increase on the 2003 low, its getting increasingly difficult to value this stock.
> It means looking towards 2010/11 or even out to 2012/14, to see what eventual production will bring. 13mtpa is forecast for 2010/11 with further mines adding to production by 2012/14.
> Is there a takeover factor in the share price?  If there is, it means someone thinks the major shareholders, they have nearly 70% of Felix, will accept a bid. That bid would have to be very high indeed and value Felix Resources at full future value. Is there any company willing to go for it?




Hi Noirua, yes production forecasts in play here, but dont forget price forecasts here. Its currently at $130 a tonne, but in those future years is it possible for these prices to double or even triple or maybe cool off?

So yes big difference this can have on EPS etc

Thanks

MS


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## noirua (29 April 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, yes production forecasts in play here, but dont forget price forecasts here. Its currently at $130 a tonne, but in those future years is it possible for these prices to double or even triple or maybe cool off?
> So yes big difference this can have on EPS etc
> Thanks
> MS



Yes m_s, there is a gamble on future coal prices. Coal production will increase as well as Australia's Eastern Port capacity. 
FLX has sold a lot of production forward into 2009 and the recent shareholders in Moolarben will take up about 4mtpa of future mine production, until 2034, at market prices.
I suppose its a choose your price going forward game now as the coal sector moves, perhaps, into its final big boom phase.


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## noirua (30 April 2008)

Third Quarter Report of Felix Resources to March 31st 2008:  http://www.felixresources.com.au/News_Docs/20080429_Felix_Quarterly_Report_March_2008.pdf


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## noirua (1 May 2008)

UBS Metals and Mining analyst, Glyn Lawcock said foreign interest could surface for Felix Resources...
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23626802-462,00.html
Felix Resources closed at $15.09, up 49 cents, another new closing high.


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## noirua (3 May 2008)

The NSW appeals court case concerning Felix Resources mining rights to use 20% of Moolarben Land, owned by Ulan Coal, has been completed.  The decision is expected from the three judges of the appeal shortly.

Felix Resources have opened a new office in Adelaide to oversee the mineral exploration of the Phillipson Tenements in S.A. The area already has a known inferred source of sub-bitumous coal of 5 billion tonnes. The rail extension from Alice Springs to Darwin runs through the area, and South to Adelaide.

Meanwhile Felix closed at a days high of $15.50 up 41 cents.


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## Reefer (5 May 2008)

Noirua
Perhaps the current buying is coming from clients of USB - surely if they feel FLX is ripe for interest from foreign raiders, they would be recommending their client's take positions. Then we have the double whammy of the Ulan case about to be resolved one way or the other.  Certainly exciting times.


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## noirua (6 May 2008)

Reefer said:


> Noirua
> Perhaps the current buying is coming from clients of USB - surely if they feel FLX is ripe for interest from foreign raiders, they would be recommending their client's take positions. Then we have the double whammy of the Ulan case about to be resolved one way or the other.  Certainly exciting times.



Hi Reefer, Exciting times indeed. 
The only possible weakness amongst the major holders appears to be the holding by the CFO, MR David Knappick, who resigned back in January.  The holding has been split into two different parcels ( Fibora Ltd, 5.12% and 2.29%), and the last time that happened the substantial holder unloaded the stock. 
I would add that there are are no rumours of the above and that this is my humble opinion only.

Main reason for the rise, imho, is the rising coal price and likely coal profits from the low cost Moolarben mine. Coal from this mine will reach about 10.5mtpa, attributable to Felix. The coal is 80% thermal priced about 5% below the benchmark price, this is around US$125 per tonne. The rest of the thermal coal is for power station use and is presently priced around US$98 per tonne. Costs were put at a low AUS$30 per tonne in 2005, this has probably risen substantially now on fuel prices and wage costs - you can probably work out the likely profit from this, providing coal price rises hold.

Felix other mines in Queensland and NSW are likely to reach 6.5mtpa, attributable to Felix, from the 4.6 to 5.0mtpa at present. 
Felix has been given a further lift on the back of much higher prices of PCI coal (Yarrabeee mine) and semi-soft coking coal (Ashton Mine). Also the exploration on the Phillipson tenement in South Australia.

Information at http://www.felixresources.com.au


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## noirua (10 May 2008)

Mudgee locals invited to Moolarben Project:  http://mudgee.yourguide.com.au/news/local/news/general/locals-invited-to-moolarben-mine/767053.aspx


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## noirua (11 May 2008)

Felix are managing to ship higher loads of coal out of the RG Tanna Terminal at the Gladstone Port, as mentioned in the last quarter report. Between 10th May and 5th June, three ship loads totalling 302,120 tonnes are due out, from the Minerva mine. Some is being sold into the spot market in complete ship loads.
Yarrabee mine totals, 133,350 tonnes between 9th May and 8th June, roughly on target.


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## noirua (13 May 2008)

At a price of about $16.00 Felix are capitalized at just under $3.2 billion. The question asked, quite rightly, what are the risks from here.
In a nutshell it's the coal price and everything else pales into insignificance beside it. 
The next important factor is the strength of the Aussie against the Greenback. 
Following this is the price of fuel and wage costs.
There are other factors that could make a difference; a takeover bid, result of the recent appeal by Ulan Coal, this is awaited; any purchase of coalmines or takeover bid by Felix.

So if everything goes fantastically well, production will spiral.  2008 - about 4.6 million tonnes (report on 31st July 08),  2009 - about 5.2 million tonnes,  2010 - about 8 million tonnes, 2011 - about 9.4 million tonnes, 2012 - about 13 million tonnes ( estimate by MD, Mr Brian Flannery), 2013/14 - about 20 million tonnes (providing Athena and Harry Brandt have reached full production). 

In the year ending 2007 (30th June) Felix made virtually no trading profit at 3.6 million tonnes sales.  Newcastle benchmark thermal varied between US$48 and US$56 per tonne.  The Aussie rose about 15% in value against the Greenback.
Profits made were from asset sales and there were mining development costs at Minerva and Ashton U/G.

In the year ending 2008 Felix are expecting a cost reduction of $20 million and made $18 million trading profit in the first half and paid a 3c interim dividend. Felix have received $160 million for the 20% sale of Moolarben. The Aussie has continued strong against the US Dollar but has not moved much during 2008.
Coal sales are moving towards 4.6 million tonnes.  Newcastle benchmark coal started the Felix year at $56 but rose rapidly for agreements, first from 1st Jan 2008 and much higher for later contracts starting 1st April and 1st June.
Felix have also sold some coal from Ashton and Minerva at spot prices.

2009 should see most of Felix coal sold on the Newcastle thermal basis price in the range US$125 - $130 per tonne. Felix have sold about 480,000 tonnes forward into 2009. Sales should reach 5.2 million tonnes minimum and may be higher if larger shipping from Ashton is achieved. All the 1.8mtpa coal from Yarrabee will be sold as PCI coal. 
During the year Felix will be developing the Moolarben opencut mine. No asset sales are so far earmarked during the year.

2010 should see the addition of coal from the Moolarben open-cut mine for about 6 - 9 months ( attributable 1.5 - 2.0 million tonnes) and coal production at the other mines increased to around 6 - 6.6mtpa.

2011 should see attributable coal rise to 3.6 million tonnes from Moolarben.  The underground mine will be in the progress of development, as will Athena an Harry Brandt.


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## noirua (19 May 2008)

Felix Resources continue to race on up, and it looks like a breakout from a breakout, on the chart, as they hit $17.50, up 59c today. 

The stock has so much happening it is taking time for the market to price this one in such a bullish sector. The existing mines will peak in a few years at 6.2mtpa, but the other tenements and projects will take this up near to 20mtpa in about 5 years time. This excludes the huge 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal at Phillipson tenement, S.A. and the present exploration for other metals on the area. Felix also have iron ore royalty interests at Hawks Nest S.A., and lignite interests in Northern Ireland.


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## michael_selway (19 May 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources continue to race on up, and it looks like a breakout from a breakout, on the chart, as they hit $17.50, up 59c today.
> 
> The stock has so much happening it is taking time for the market to price this one in such a bullish sector. The existing mines will peak in a few years at 6.2mtpa, but the other tenements and projects will take this up near to 20mtpa in about 5 years time. This excludes the huge 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal at Phillipson tenement, S.A. and the present exploration for other metals on the area. Felix also have iron ore royalty interests at Hawks Nest S.A., and lignite interests in Northern Ireland.




Yep its very hard to forecast from here but does look very bullish

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 63.6 204.5 166.4 
DPS 6.0 10.0 18.8 17.8 *

Btw what coal stocks are you holding atm?

thx

MS


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## zaz (19 May 2008)

Hi Folks,

I've been in Felix since 2005. I'm a value investor and bought into it because at the time I thought it was very undervalued given the current price of coal. I also thought that coal would appreciate more than oil (hasn't happened yet!). I still think Felix is undervalued and I did some work today on my valuation model. 

I think it's worth around $25 and I've published some sensitivities on my blog.It's no longer my favorite idea but I'm not selling any at today's price.

Cheers, Neil


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## noirua (20 May 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Yep its very hard to forecast from here but does look very bullish
> Btw what coal stocks are you holding atm?
> thx MS




Hi M_S, I'm not in that many coal stocks, on the otherhand there are not many producers left, and some may have to wait for the Government to spend that $21 billion quickly on ports, rail and other infrastructure, as the big miners have tied up all the exports from the docks. Centennial and Felix have a piece of the action with NCIG ( Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group) and I'm staying with them. Gloucester Coal have Korean, AMCI (American private coal company) and other big investors who should hold sway in bartering for rail and export space, has semi-hard coking coal, and hopefully will continue to do well. Cockatoo Coal and Pike River Coal are hopefull producers but in the gamble stakes, who knows for sure. 
Wesfarmers, more a conglomerate, still have coal interests and may come good in time, how much time, who knows?  I also hold the Anglo/Swiss Xstrata, though not really a clean coal stock and no Aussie quote, as yet.
Not a good idea to follow me into stocks, afterall - what do I know!?


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## noirua (23 May 2008)

Felix Resources continued their upward march today and peaked at $20.80 +$2.10 before falling back to $20.58.
There are thoughts that something might happen when the result comes from the NSW Appeal Court, concerning an appeal by Xstrata's Ulan Coal Co, over the Moolarben Project. 
Speculation has been going the rounds since Xstrata's interest in Macarthur Coal was announced.


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## michael_selway (23 May 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources continued their upward march today and peaked at $20.80 +$2.10 before falling back to $20.58.
> There are thoughts that something might happen when the result comes from the NSW Appeal Court, concerning an appeal by Xstrata's Ulan Coal Co, over the Moolarben Project.
> Speculation has been going the rounds since Xstrata's interest in Macarthur Coal was announced.




Hm eventually all of these coal producers will be taken over. What do you think of that?

thx

MS


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## noirua (30 May 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm eventually all of these coal producers will be taken over. What do you think of that? thxMS



Hi m_s, the only way they can avoid being taken over is for the major holders to stubbornly hold on, and that is the case as far as Gloucester Coal and Felix Resources are concerned.
There are thoughts, though no reports anywhere, that there may have been some stake building in Felix recently and that one holder, no longer with Felix management, may be vulnerable to unloading their stake.
The 5 billion tonne sub-bitumous coal tenement at Phillipson in S.A. is now being explored for resources other than coal.  Hard to put a value on this chunky asset with the Adelaide to Darwin rail line running through the middle of it. Sub-bitumous coal has jumped in value and providing coal prices hold up this could become a mega-value asset, IN TIME.

Felix closed the week at an all-time high of $23.10.


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## michael_selway (31 May 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, the only way they can avoid being taken over is for the major holders to stubbornly hold on, and that is the case as far as Gloucester Coal and Felix Resources are concerned.
> There are thoughts, though no reports anywhere, that there may have been some stake building in Felix recently and that one holder, no longer with Felix management, may be vulnerable to unloading their stake.
> The 5 billion tonne sub-bitumous coal tenement at Phillipson in S.A. is now being explored for resources other than coal.  Hard to put a value on this chunky asset with the Adelaide to Darwin rail line running through the middle of it. Sub-bitumous coal has jumped in value and providing coal prices hold up this could become a mega-value asset, IN TIME.
> 
> Felix closed the week at an all-time high of $23.10.




Hm who woudl have thought! 

Btw $150+ per tonne now thermal coal prices!

02-May-08 133.00 
09-May-08 133.63 
16-May-08 134.85 
23-May-08 138.35 
*30-May-08 151.70 *







NHC a star performer as well!

thx

MS


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## zaz (9 June 2008)

zaz said:


> Hi Folks,
> 
> I've been in Felix since 2005. I'm a value investor and bought into it because at the time I thought it was very undervalued given the current price of coal. I also thought that coal would appreciate more than oil (hasn't happened yet!). I still think Felix is undervalued and I did some work today on my valuation model.
> 
> ...




Has anyone else done any work to determine the impact of the extra 3% royalty? I think it knocks about 50c off fair value bringing it down from around $25 to $24.50. 

I love the idea that the QLD govt can reach into my pocket and take out what they like 

Cheers, Neil
http://longterm.blogspot.com


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## michael_selway (11 June 2008)

zaz said:


> Has anyone else done any work to determine the impact of the extra 3% royalty? I think it knocks about 50c off fair value bringing it down from around $25 to $24.50.
> 
> I love the idea that the QLD govt can reach into my pocket and take out what they like
> 
> ...




not much of an impact, but still

*Date: 10/6/2008 
Author: Michael Vaughan 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 20 
Felix Resources has attracted plenty of attention as a takeover target, but CEOBrian Flannery is focused on the company's strategic direction.Felix's share price has doubled in three months, drawing an increasingnumber of investors, but Flannery is determined that selling equity is no longerin the company's best interest for tax regime purposes. The companyrecently announced a new dividend policy. Felix will open a fifth coal mine in2010, and aims to triple annual overall output to 16 million tonnes by 2012* 

thx

MS


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## njc.corp (17 June 2008)

very very decent increase in today's prices

was reading this article on bloomberg-not much talk about felix it self-

Felix, Centennial Surge on Coal Price, Profit Outlook (Update1) 

By Jesse Riseborough

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Felix Resources Ltd., the best performer on Australia's benchmark index, rose the most in more than three years in Sydney trading, leading gains by coal-mining companies after the price of the fuel reached a record. 

Felix jumped as much as A$2.25, or 12 percent, to A$20.70, the biggest gain since December 2004, and traded at A$20.56 at 2:03 p.m. Sydney time on the Australian stock exchange. Centennial Coal Co., which was raised to ``equalweight'' from ``overweight'' by Morgan Stanley today, rose 8.5 percent to a record A$6.13. 


www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=adTPVZeDG4_c&refer=australia

Thanks

Nick--


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## noirua (19 June 2008)

Felix Resources recovered to close at $22.03 after the big sell off in recent weeks. After thermal coal went above US$160 a tonne and talk on Bloomberg of the price reaching US$180 or more, later this year: Felix may well continue to follow the coal price up.


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## michael_selway (19 June 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources recovered to close at $22.03 after the big sell off in recent weeks. After thermal coal went above US$160 a tonne and talk on Bloomberg of the price reaching US$180 or more, later this year: Felix may well continue to follow the coal price up.




Hi Noirua, how high do you think Thermal Coal prices can go, and how long can it sustain aroudn those highs?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 64.8 234.4 155.7 
DPS 6.0 11.8 16.7 15.6 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (21 June 2008)

Felix Resources MD Mr Brian Flannery has said, in an ASX announcement, "that the companies gross profits to the year 30/6/2008, will be in the range of $220 to $240 million, - the figure includes profits of $120 million from asset sales" of $160 million which sees trading profits in the range $100 to $120 million.


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## noirua (22 June 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, how high do you think Thermal Coal prices can go, and how long can it sustain aroudn those highs? thx MS




Hi m_s, much depends on the value of the US Dollar that I think is due for a sharp recovery as Europe moves towards recession.  Lots of coal piled up in Aus with infrastructure and Ports too small for the coal capacity needed.  China needs all its coal with so many coal fired power stations opening up.

My bet is that the oil price will tumble to around US$100 per barrel later this year.  Coal prices for thermal will push on to US$180 per tonne or even US$200 per tonne, set at US$125 per tonne for 2008 deliveries, but will fall back by 2010 when all the new ports are developed, and China develops its new bigger coal mines to replace the small ones, and slows down on the opening of new coal fired power stations.
Analysts are going for US$135 per tonne for thermal in 2009 and that may well be the peak.


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## noirua (28 June 2008)

Felix have suffered quite a fall and most of that on the MCC takeover talks coming to an end with the overpriced comment.
Coal prices should remain strong, but many coal stocks are being priced on production as long as 6 years from now and Felix is very much one of these.
Profits for 2008 should see an after tax figure of around $200 to $220 million, as previous losses reduce the tax figure. A final dividend of around 15 cents, making 18 cents for the year, would cost about $35.3 million in total.
Profits for 2009 should see the after tax figure in the range $210 to $250 million. A dividend of around 40 cents, costing $78.4 million, could easily be afforded.

Higher dividends could not be paid as Felix will need about $330 million for their share of the open-cut and longwall mine developments and land purchases at Moolarben.

2010 should see coal production rise from 5.2 million tonnes to around 7 million tonnes as extra PCI coal is sold from Yarrabee and Moolarben starts production. 
Easy to forecast an after tax profit in the range $300 to $350 million and a dividend of $1 costing $200 million. 
HOWEVER, the coal price and the value of the Greenback is vitally important here and may cause this forecast to be a longway adrift.

2011 should see production at 10 million tonnes, 2012 around 13 million tonnes and Felix's own forecast of eventual production around 16 million tonnes.


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## Muschu (29 June 2008)

What an intriguing world the share market is - and frustrating [at least for a novice like me].  
Recently I took a small hold in GCL and it has improved a tad and held its own last week.  At the same time I had been considering FLX but decided against it - and it took a 20% drop last week.
Are there any TAs out there who are interested in commenting on what the FLX charts are telling them at this time?  
Regards
Rick


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## noirua (30 June 2008)

Felix ship thermal and semi-soft coking coal from their mines at Ashton in the Hunter Valley.

Australia's Newcastle Coal Price Rises to Record $172.10 a Ton By Leony Aurora June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Power-station coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, jumped to a record for a fifth week as demand for the fuel surged in countries including India and China.

Coal prices at the New South Wales port, the world's biggest export harbor for the fuel, rose $9.44, or 5.8 percent, to $172.10 a metric ton in the week ended June 27, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.


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## noirua (1 July 2008)

Interesting now as all eyes move to the Macarthur Coal situation, where the shares are in trading halt.
The main interest at Felix Resources remains with the Moolarben Project where the NSW Appeals court have taken a month deliberating over Ulan Coal's appeal over their land within Moolarben.


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## noirua (5 July 2008)

The coal sector has taken a thumping and this is mainly due to the debacle that reads Macarthur Coal. MD, Mr Brian Flannery of FLX, has sought to steady nerves in saying that Felix, unlike Macarthur, does not have major shareholders who are likely to consider deals to sell-off and split their holdings.
Providing time shows this to be true, the Felix partial recovery looks on strong ground, however, who can be absolutely sure, not me.


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## noirua (6 July 2008)

Felix Resources are named, with Gloucester Coal, to be Australias most promising coal stocks.  

By Jesse Riseborough

July 4 (Bloomberg)

``There is no cause for panic,'' Merrill analysts led by Sydney-based Vicky Binns said in a report yesterday after a 7.2 percent decline in the Bloomberg World Coal Index during the past two days. ``We expect buying opportunities to arise in coming days as the market settles.''

Gloucester and Felix Resources Ltd. are Merrill's favored stocks in Australia, it said. Sydney-based Gloucester rose 70 cents, or 6.6 percent, to A$11.30 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the Australian stock exchange. Felix gained 10 percent to A$17.14. 

Bottlenecks at Australian ports, together with flooding in Queensland state, helped double coal prices in Australia in the past year. The price of coal from Newcastle port rose to a record for a fifth week to $172.10 a metric ton. 

Fundamentally, the international coal markets appear to remain extremely tight, so prices are likely to remain close to record highs,'' Peter Atherton, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London, said yesterday in a note report.


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## michael_selway (6 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources are named, with Gloucester Coal, to be Australias most promising coal stocks.
> 
> By Jesse Riseborough
> 
> ...




Hi yep, it does appear a grat buying opportunity

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 41.8 218.9 188.3 
DPS 6.0 10.7 19.1 21.6 *







thx

MS


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## noirua (8 July 2008)

After recent events it will be intertesting to see if Felix really do recover on the back of Merrills upgrade. Appeal concerning Ulan coal and Moolarben still awaits the results some 5 weeks after the Judges started deliberating.


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## noirua (9 July 2008)

Felix Resources at the Sydney Mining Club Presentation:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/47499
Speech by MD Mr Brian Flannery of Felix Resources.


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## noirua (10 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources at the Sydney Mining Club Presentation:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/47499
> Speech by MD Mr Brian Flannery of Felix Resources.




Right now, a very interesting speech that should, in theory, send Felix stock up a couple of dollars. However, markets are so bad now, in certain sectors in Western domains and even in the Far East, that it would take a mighty effort for any stock, in the short term, to resist the trend.


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## noirua (10 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Right now, a very interesting speech that should, in theory, send Felix stock up a couple of dollars. However, markets are so bad now, in certain sectors in Western domains and even in the Far East, that it would take a mighty effort for any stock, in the short term, to resist the trend.




Doing their best are Felix Resources after a sudden dip early on. The MD affect is a tad stronger than I thought and the promising low cost Moolarben Project augers well in 2010. Punching their weight are Felix and all this despite spoilers XSTRATA.


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## noirua (10 July 2008)

I hold a lot of Felix stock, that is in regards to the % of my portfolio. The price performance yesterday was impressive earlier but the fall back seems to show, despite the MD's 41 minute speech, which was impressive, that the Merrill comment "we are not convinced that profit taking is over in the sector" is pulling in the opposite direction.


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## michael_selway (10 July 2008)

noirua said:


> I hold a lot of Felix stock, that is in regards to the % of my portfolio. The price performance yesterday was impressive earlier but the fall back seems to show, despite the MD's 41 minute speech, which was impressive, that the Merrill comment "we are not convinced that profit taking is over in the sector" is pulling in the opposite direction.




Hi Noirua, thanks hes a great speaker! 

He has his own predictions for the future, 30 years coal left in the world....

http://ss01.boardroomradio.com/files/FLX/FLX - 20080703.swf
http://www.brr.com.au/event/47499

Very interesting indeed and he appears quite bullish

thx

MS


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## noirua (11 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, thanks hes a great speaker!
> 
> He has his own predictions for the future, 30 years coal left in the world....thx MS




Hi m_s, I've been following Felix longer than anyone still with the company, I think. I have to be honest with you and say, there are errors in the report etc., and very significant.
If you look at the coal production chart it shows a lot of coal produced at Moolarben in the year ending 30/6/2009, NOT SO. Production at Moolarben is now put back to start in 2010 to coincide with the port expansion at Newcastle.
Production shown for 2009 will not be achieved until 2011, 2 years later.
Quite a serious mistake to show production estimates several years out of date.
Confusingly Felix show production from the Yarrabee mine constant at 1.8mtpa until 2012 when the plant is to be expanded with a new washery and coal production should reach 2.8mtpa for the year ending 30/6/2010.
Still further, Felix show full production from their Moolarben underground mine in the year ending 30/6/2012, I'm not saying this is impossible but Mr Brian Flannery and co will need to achieve quite a gallop to get there.


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## noirua (16 July 2008)

Felix Resources has been raised to buy in an article by Bloomberg citing Goldman Sacks. From Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Treasuries rose, with yields on two-year notes dropping to the lowest since May, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said there are ``significant downside risks'' to economic growth. 

Dollar Falls Most Against Yen Since March on Bernanke's Remarks 
Crude oil tumbled more than $6 a barrel in New York amid concern that a slower U.S. economy will curtail demand for oil and gasoline. 
Gold Climbs on Demand for Alternative to Falling Dollar, Stocks...


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## noirua (24 July 2008)

Felix Resources, once owned Way Linggo gold holdings in Indonesia and other assets, thought to have been converted into royalties between 1999 and 2003 (Questions have been raised about this) have once again surfaced. These holdings were once valued at C$300 million and were later of little value due to the slump in the gold price.
This matter has now been raised to Mr Brian Flannery, MD of the company, and hopefully this time the matter will not be ignored.

Further information and very many links to follow.


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## michael_selway (25 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources, once owned Way Linggo gold holdings in Indonesia and other assets, thought to have been converted into royalties between 1999 and 2003 (Questions have been raised about this) have once again surfaced. These holdings were once valued at C$300 million and were later of little value due to the slump in the gold price.
> This matter has now been raised to Mr Brian Flannery, MD of the company, and hopefully this time the matter will not be ignored.
> 
> Further information and very many links to follow.




Thanks Noirua, also FLX holding up these few days which is good to see!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 45.3 202.5 232.4 
DPS 6.0 10.3 19.1 21.6 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (25 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources, once owned Way Linggo gold holdings in Indonesia and other assets, thought to have been converted into royalties between 1999 and 2003 (Questions have been raised about this) have once again surfaced. These holdings were once valued at C$300 million and were later of little value due to the slump in the gold price.
> This matter has now been raised to Mr Brian Flannery, MD of the company, and hopefully this time the matter will not be ignored.
> 
> Further information and very many links to follow.




Hi m_s et al, I have now sent two emails to Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery to update him on this past matter that he may not be fully up to speed on. 
This "Takeovers Panel" decision in 2003 at 12 tells the position as it stood on these gold and silver royalties (this has been disputed and I hesitate to say that the panel was in error) though the KMPG report was not in full certainty :  http://www.takeovers.gov.au/display.asp?ContentID=657
Further information has come to light concerning these holdings that now involve Kingrose Mining. I have sent emails to their "standin" MD, Mr David Hatch:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080429/pdf/318tdxnnbnc8s0.pdf


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## noirua (28 July 2008)

Felix shares have jumped to $19.50, up $1.91, after advising, through the ASX,  it has received interest from several parties. 
Interest is preliminary, incomplete, non binding and conditional.
No formal written offer has been received.


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## noirua (28 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix shares have jumped to $19.50, up $1.91, after advising, through the ASX,  it has received interest from several parties.
> Interest is preliminary, incomplete, non binding and conditional.
> No formal written offer has been received.



Bloomberg have mentioned that Arcelor Mittal, known to act with other parties in bids, are interested in coal assets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asEhAwPMAksI


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## noirua (28 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Bloomberg have mentioned that Arcelor Mittal, known to act with other parties in bids, are interested in coal assets.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asEhAwPMAksI




Arcelor Mittal have now been tied in with POSCO and Citic as possible interested parties in bidding for Felix. Confidence does not appear that high at the moment with Felix under $20 a share against a high this year of $23.50.

Former White Mining shareholders have 48.7% of Felix and AMCI 19.2%.


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## michael_selway (28 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Arcelor Mittal have now been tied in with POSCO and Citic as possible interested parties in bidding for Felix. Confidence does not appear that high at the moment with Felix under $20 a share against a high this year of $23.50.
> 
> Former White Mining shareholders have 48.7% of Felix and AMCI 19.2%.




Hi hopefully it wont be too cheap like NHC and sale of Saraji Project to BHp recently

*
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 43.6 224.9 254.2 
DPS 6.0 10.3 19.1 21.6 *




> Date: 28/7/2008
> Author: Michael Vaughan; Brett Clegg
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 1/16
> Directors of Australian-listed coal mining group Felix Resources have receivedexpressions of interest by larger takeover predators. Some limited due diligencehas been performed by these entities for the $A3.5bn business, which could addto a recent consolidation trend in the sector. Felix forecasts a 200% increasein annual output for its mines in Queensland and New South Wales by 2012, toclose to 16 million tonnes. The board owns about 57% of the issued scrip, withprivate equity investor AMCI also holding a large stake. On 25 July 2008 thestock closed at $A17.59, up $A0.48 for the day






> FELIX RESOURCES LIMITED ADVISES IT HAS RECEIVED INTEREST FROM SEVERAL PARTIES
> The Board of Felix Resources Limited (“Felix”) advises that several parties have expressed interest in relation to a potential change of control transaction.
> At this stage the interest shown by these parties is preliminary, incomplete, non-binding and conditional. No formal written offer has been made to Felix.
> The Board has appointed Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Ltd and Wilson HTM Corporate Finance Ltd to assist it.
> There is, and can be, no assurance that any transaction will be proposed, but the Board undertakes to keep shareholders informed if matters develop.




http://business.smh.com.au/business/suitors-circle-felix-resources-20080728-3m0g.html

Thx

MS


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## noirua (29 July 2008)

Felix continue to strengthen despite negative markets elsewhere. Still a touch shy of $20 in early trading as it looks as if the key holders, former White Mining and AMCI, are looking to retain a key stake in Felix Resources despite, maybe, accepting giving up about 51% - 60% of the company, far short of the important 90%.


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## Julia (29 July 2008)

Has there been any further comment about potential take-over?
The SP seems to be giving back much of yesterday's gains.


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## noirua (29 July 2008)

Julia said:


> Has there been any further comment about potential take-over?
> The SP seems to be giving back much of yesterday's gains.



Hi Julia, Looking at previous deals by Felix over Moolarben it does look as if the major holders are negotiating a behind the scenes deal.

They may well sell down their holdings in Felix with one selling up completely.  This will most likely see a price about 5% - 7% above yesterdays closing price. A deal will be done, if this happens, to sell a large quantity of coal for many years ahead.

Others now know they must move quickly IF they are interested in Felix, but I doubt they'll come in and bid around $27 - $30 in cash to get the company. BHP or RIO are the only companies in position to offer their own stock and thus let holders out of the capital gains tax trap.

Interesting days ahead.


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## Julia (29 July 2008)

Hi Noirua, well if that's the case, why would you think the SP dropped today?
In the scenario you describe, I'd have thought there would have been an additional rise today?


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## noirua (29 July 2008)

Julia said:


> Hi Noirua, well if that's the case, why would you think the SP dropped today?
> In the scenario you describe, I'd have thought there would have been an additional rise today?



What you say would seem so Julia, but the Felix case is complex indeed.

The appeal by Ulan (90% Xstrata) is going through the NSW appeals court and this decision has now been delayed for six weeks.  Also the talks between Ulan, Felix and the NSW Mining Warden are 3 weeks delayed, reference purchasing land from Ulan covering the Moolarben tenement, 80% owned by Felix through Moolarben Coal. This appeal could yet end up in the Federal High Court in Canberra and delay the Moolarben development.

There could be talks going on, there were talks last year, between representatives of Felix and Xstrata. Some think Xstrata are after 29% of Moolarben and half of Felix's stake in NCIG - Felix can export large amounts of extra coal out of Newcastle Port extension from 2010, Xstrata are light in NSW on port capacity.
Xstrata may agree to pay for the rest of Felix's development of Moolarben, gift them 20% of the Moolarben land owned by Ulan, plus $100 million or so, in exchange for 29% of Moolarben.

The above would not stop the Consortium grabbing a large stake in Felix and only if they hold 30% or more would a bid for the rest of the stock follow. We could be left high and dry if the Consortium pull out, or take less than 30%. The consortium are only really after coal supplies from all of Felix's mines and particularly semi-soft coking coal out of the Hunter Valley, Ashton Mine.

The consortium could yet agree to purchase a 49% stake in the Yarrabee Mine, QLD, as another party dropped out last year. An outside possibility if other agreements fail.

Always a chance for a bid from RIO but the Xstrata mess may keep them on the sidelines as a bid would have to be very high. Therefore many do not thing they will try.  RIO are also in a takeover bid situation with BHP that may preclude their being able to bid, I don't know.

Felix's Fourth Quarter Report is out on Wednesday and it should show good sales and mined coal in that quarter. Problems at the Ashton Mine should have been out of the way and shipping of Minerva Coal, QLD, should have been excellent as it is not mixed and goes in single ship loads.


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## noirua (30 July 2008)

The Chief Mining Warden, Wardens Court, Muswellbrook, has set a price of $580,323.28 as the purchase price, for which Felix must pay Ulan Coal (90% Xstrata, 10% Mitsubishi) for the tenement covering 20% of Moolarben.

Felix will go ahead with development in August.  Equipment orders will now be secured for delivery.

Felix closed at $20.22 +82c on the present bid situation.


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## michael_selway (30 July 2008)

noirua said:


> The Chief Mining Warden, Wardens Court, Muswellbrook, has set a price of $580,323.28 as the purchase price, for which Felix must pay Ulan Coal (90% Xstrata, 10% Mitsubishi) for the tenement covering 20% of Moolarben.
> 
> Felix will go ahead with development in August.  Equipment orders will now be secured for delivery.
> 
> Felix closed at $20.22 +82c on the present bid situation.




Hm not bad today

*Date: 29/7/2008 
Author: Barry FitzGerald 
Source: The Age --- Page: B2 
 Speculation about a possible takeover bid bolstered the share price ofAustralian-listed Felix Resources on 28 July 2008. The stock gained $A2.11 toclose at $A19.70 after the mining company advised shareholders that it has beenapproached by potential suitors. Felix stressed that there has been no formaltakeover offer as yet. Xstrata is widely seen as the most likely bidder forFelix. Any bid would need the support of Felix directors, who control some 57per cent of the coal miner's shares 

Date: 29/7/2008 
Author: Michael Vaughan 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 14 
 Australian coal miner, Felix Resources, is allowing potential suitors access toa data room. The company has received several approaches about a possibletakeover. The prospect lifted its share price by $A2.11 to $A19.70 on 28 July2008, making the company worth nearly $A3.9 billion. A takeover deal would haveto be friendly, as four of the five directors control nearly 49 per cent of thecompany*

thx

MS


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## noirua (30 July 2008)

Hi m_s et al, Don't believe in this friendly comment. Last time RMM sold their 19.2% holding in Felix Resources (Chairman of Felix was with RMM) whilst MD Brian Flannery was negotiating a price for Moolarben with Xstrata. Reports were that he nearly fell off his chair when he was told the Companies Chairman had sold out under him. Xstrata went mental over it and dragged Felix through court after court.

Brian Flannery ran the Ulan Mine before Xstrata took it over (its alongside Felix's Moolarben Project (80% owned)) so he's ripe to join the Xstrata Board for a mint. He doesn't need it now really as he and other directors, including manager Joseph Butta, are among minings richest in Aus.

Only the appeal situation left now in this court battle. Will Xstrata bid?  They want a chunk of Moolarben, 29%, may pay A$500 million for it - would benefit Felix as well. Xstrata stock price is down over 20% and a bid in stock and cash would raise questions, needs to be over $25.

Consortium bid?  I don't have that much confidence in this behind the scenes possible deal. 

Felix Chairman is getting on a bit and former CFO, David Knappick may want out. AMCI are known for selling interests and will sell out, IMHO. UK and German holders that number over 10% of Felix will gratefully take their cash and run. 

RIO: Do they want to get into a bidding war for Felix Resources. This could go on for a longtime. Unless they bid $30 in cash or and stock. Cost A$5.9 billion - Too much???


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## noirua (1 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s et al, I have now sent two emails to Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery to update him on this past matter that he may not be fully up to speed on.
> This "Takeovers Panel" decision in 2003 at 12 tells the position as it stood on these gold and silver royalties (this has been disputed and I hesitate to say that the panel was in error) though the KMPG report was not in full certainty :  http://www.takeovers.gov.au/display.asp?ContentID=657
> Further information has come to light concerning these holdings that now involve Kingrose Mining. I have sent emails to their "standin" MD, Mr David Hatch:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080429/pdf/318tdxnnbnc8s0.pdf



Kingrose Mining (KRM) have confirmed, through their MD, that they are aware of the royalties over the Way Linggo Project, in favour of Felix Resources.  They seem very much on the ball.
Felix Resources must now be aware. Having been sent several emails on the subject of Way Linggo, but have not yet confirmed.


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## michael_selway (1 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Kingrose Mining (KRM) have confirmed, through their MD, that they are aware of the royalties over the Way Linggo Project, in favour of Felix Resources.  They seem very much on the ball.
> Felix Resources must now be aware. Having been sent several emails on the subject of Way Linggo, but have not yet confirmed.




Hi Noirua, FLX has been one of the very few superstars of late on the ASX, even in this sort of market, its unbelievable...and you had thsi stock ever since it started!

thx

MS


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## noirua (1 August 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, FLX has been one of the very few superstars of late on the ASX, even in this sort of market, its unbelievable...and you had this stock ever since it started. thx MS



Yes, it's the final days of Felix Resources. Any bidders know that it's a straight gamble on the price of coal.

Felix will produce 13 (million tonnes per annum)mtpa around 2012, 16mtpa around 2014 and 20mtpa around 2018.
In 2012 an average price for coal at US$100 per tonne = profit about A$400 million, US$125 per tonne = $670 million; US$150 per tonne = A$950 million; and US$200 per tonne = $1.4 billion. Add 50% by 2020.
All a gamble this and fair bet looks for profits around A$800 million in 2012, a forward PE around 8 at A$21.88 a share. At A$1.4 billion profit a PE of 4.5. (PE allows for a full tax bill at 30%).

So Felix are anywhere from a bit expensive to quite cheap, you pays your money and makes your choice.
What is the synergy value worth to Xstrata? Well, quite a bit, but they are not known for paying over the odds.

BHP, Peabody, RIO and a few others could bid just to deprive Xstrata, and of course, the Consortium speaking to Felix are in the ascendancy at the moment.


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## noirua (5 August 2008)

The abrupt falls in the mining sector have come at an unfortunate time for the negotiations by Felix with other parties, concerning a change in major holdings or a bid for the company.
A realistic bid was set once at around the $30 -$35 level by some, but recent falls have pushed expectations well back to $22 - $26. The upper level only likely if other bidders came in.
Interestingly, it is more likely that several holders wish to abandon ship and know they can't sell into the tight market and may accept a bid for their holding below $22: The reason the price has moved back to $20.02 today, acknowledging as well the fall in the sector generally.


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## noirua (8 August 2008)

Felix Resources shares have been placed in pre-open and are in "TRADING HALT" pending an announcement.


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## noirua (8 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources shares have been placed in pre-open and are in "TRADING HALT" pending an announcement.



The halt is due to a decision issued on Friday afternoon to both parties in the appeal at the NSW Supeme Court of Appeal concerning the Moolarben Project, NSW:  Ulan Coal (Xstrata 90% and Mitsubishi 10%) v The NSW Government and 1st defendendant Moolarben Coal (80% Felix Resources, 10% Sojitz, 10% Korean consortium): http://138.25.65.50/au/cases/nsw/NSWCA/recent.html


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## noirua (9 August 2008)

Decision of the NSW Supreme Court of Appeal on Friday 8th August 2008: Ulan Coal Mines (90% Xstrata and 10% Mitsubishi) v Minister for Mineral Resources and Moolarben Coal Mines (80% Felix Resources, 10% Sojitz and 10% Korean consortium):  http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/scjud...5dbd4806b7efcf20ca257496001b0360?OpenDocument


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## noirua (9 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Decision of the NSW Supreme Court of Appeal on Friday 8th August 2008: Ulan Coal Mines (90% Xstrata and 10% Mitsubishi) v Minister for Mineral Resources and Moolarben Coal Mines (80% Felix Resources, 10% Sojitz and 10% Korean consortium):  http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/scjud...5dbd4806b7efcf20ca257496001b0360?OpenDocument



It does look, at first glance, that the Minister of Mining Resources is likely to lodge an appeal against the three decisions made by Judge Hodges.  As the Judge said, "...this was a difficult and complex case." Due to this admittance, it would seem that some of the decision was a matter of his judgement in which he had difficulty.

A major part of the decision concerned the granting of a mining licence over the areas for the underground mines and three open-cut mines, MLA264 and MLA290.
Decision ii) The effect of s75V of the EPA ACT on s62(1) of the Mining Act:  
Judge Hodges considered that because there had not been consideration to substantial and valuable structures on the land owned by Ulan Coal, by the Minister of Mineral Resources, that there had been no declaration that they were not valuable and substantial, in accordance with s62(1)(c) of the mining act. Thus the mining licenses should not have been awarded to Moolarben Coal (see 38 23a of judgement "Identification of Valuable works").


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## Julia (9 August 2008)

Noirua, so what is all the court action likely to mean for the SP?
I haven't been following what has been happening and don't know what your post above implies.


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## noirua (9 August 2008)

Julia said:


> Noirua, so what is all the court action likely to mean for the SP?
> I haven't been following what has been happening and don't know what your post above implies.



Difficult to be quite certain what will happen next. Felix are in talks with other parties about a possible bid for the company and if all this falls through the price could plunge.
Mining stocks have fallen between 25% and 40% recently ( Includes Antofagasta, Xstrata, RIO, BHP, Anglo A, Macarthur Coal, Gloucester Coal, Centennial ... ) and that alone would indicate a price of $14 - $18, and the Moolarben project problems combined with the bid situation put the range $12 - $16 - IMHO.

It seems that the matters mentioned by Judge Hodges which return to Primary Judge, Justice Smart, will be ironed out before the whole position becomes clear.

An appeal to the Federal Court looks entirely in the hands of the NSW Minister of Mining. Whatever happens, the Moolarben Project is held up by 6 months or more. Mining was due to start in the final quarter of 2009 and may be pushed back well into 2010.
The big hold up is the rail and other infrastructure which was underway.
There is also the position of the Korean Consortium and Sojitz to consider as they paid $180 million for 20% of Moolarben with certain provisos that are unclear.


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## Julia (11 August 2008)

Having read today's announcement I am frankly no wiser but presumably the implications are negative in view of the savage drop in the SP.
Anyone heard any more about the takeover speculation?


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## noirua (13 August 2008)

Julia said:


> Having read today's announcement I am frankly no wiser but presumably the implications are negative in view of the savage drop in the SP.
> Anyone heard any more about the takeover speculation?



Xstrata, the major shareholder in Ulan Coal Pty, stopped producing coal from their Ulan open-cut mine 6 weeks ago. All their mining equipment is now stored on the land that Felix want for mining purposes.
As Xstrata won their case concerning valuable assets on this land, we can guess that they would like some open-cut mining to use all this equipment on.
Felix and the Mining Minister have now to decide, what next, as Xstrata are sitting there wanting a chunk of the action.  Xstrata are known to have made a low offer for a joint interest in Moolarben and that position looks unchanged in this environment.

So Four options now: Lodge an appeal to the Federal Courts; try and get an agreement back in the Primary Judges Court as to adjusting the leases so as to exclude the valuable assets of Xstrata; try and keep the leases or modify them to exclude the Xstrata Land; or accept a long wait until the leases are awarded again.

This is all a bit of a mini disaster.  The quick way out is to let Xstrata have a big chunk of Moolarben - the market seems to think this will cause Felix to be over $200 million worse off. 

One good thing is that Xstrata are tied up in their bid for Lonmin, and Xstrata shares have fallen 35% from their high. Xstrata are having to raise cash to bid for Lonmin and may not be in a position to bid for Felix Resources.


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## Quillan (13 August 2008)

As a long-term Felix shareholder I think most people are being a little short sighted about the Moolarben issue.Besides Flannery says the Judgement may only affect 5mt of reserves.
Let's focus on this year's profits. 
Anyone who has not heard Flannery's speech at the Miners' Club on 4th July should go to the Felix Website and click on Boardroom Radio.He discloses things not released to shareholders.For instance, this year FLX will sell 3mt of PCI coals at $240--$260 a tonne, and 2mt of Thermal at what we must assume is $125 a tonne, since that was the contract price agreed by the coal companies in April.
So turnover should be USD$1 billion, which equates to about AUD$1.1bn Deduct AUD$200m for extraction costs and company expenses gives AUD$900m before tax. Allow for a 30% Tax charge, gives a possible net profit of AUD$630m which gives EPS of AUD$3.2.[196m shares in issue.]
Next question. What would be an appropriate Historic PE in 12 month's time? A minimum of 15 gives a share price of $48 on my figures.
But in 12 months there will be the prospect of Moolarben within the near future, hopefully, which should enhance the Historic PE valuation to maybe as high as 25, plus the added 1.1mt of PCI from Yarrabee.[See below]
There is great speculation on next April's contract price for Thermal coals. Since PCI coal is in great demand, some thermal coals are suitable for upgrading to PCIs by washing. The only figure I have found for washing costs is AUD3.30 per tonne, quoted in India.Say it was $5 a tonne. $125 Thermal coal suddenly becomes $250 PCI coal !! 
This is why FLX is saying Yarrabee will increase production of PCI coals to 2.8mt in 2009-2010. Assuming still we are talking $250 a tonne, that extra 1.1mt is worth in the region of AUD$15 to the share price !! That means today's share price is covered by this 1.1mt alone.
More coals converted to PCI means a greater shortage of Thermal.That's one reason why there are forecasts of USD$150-$180 per tonne for Thermal contracts next April.
What are the odds of an attack on Iran? There is a Bill already drawn up with an overwhelming number of supporting Republican signatures, which may be passed in the next month to allow Bush to act. 
End September is crucial as there will be bad financial news coming out of the US by then. Nothing like a war to divert attention. Most important of all, the US is run by Big Business. When people like Cheney says "jump", Bush jumps.The Kissingers and Cheneys want an Iran scrap, so does Israel, but Bush must get it going before October. There's little chance Obama would start a war with Iran.
Iran would then close the Straits of Hormuz to all shipping,maybe by sinking a couple of large freighters, and all the pundits say oil would be more than $200 a barrel.Of course coal prices would follow suit.
Whether Bush is right or wrong in believing Iran is a nuclear threat is not the point.The point is the effect it would have on the FLX share price.
What could upset all these figures is the state of the world economy. The question being whether China, India, Japan and Korea will continue their insatiable need for energy, or will they slow down if the recession is deep-seated?
That's the balance we have to judge.
I say we don't need the circling Hyenas who are just trying to pick off juicy bits of the FLX portfolio.They are all "juicy"!! I haven't even mentioned HarryBrandt, Clean Coal Technology, Way Linggo,[?] or South Australia, plus the value of the 15% of the new Newcastle port facility, which Xstrata would love to get its hands on, or Moolarben. All these are in the share price for less than nothing !! If my figures for 2008 --2009 are about right, then FLX selling   on a Prospective 2008-09 PE of under 5!!
No wonder the Hyenas are circling !!


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## noirua (14 August 2008)

Hi Quillan et al, There is the matter of royalties to take into account. On Queensland production 5% on the first $100 per tonne and 7% after this. The rate is 5% to 7% for NSW depending on whether the mine is open-cast or at what depth. 
The benchmark thermal coal price is set at US$125 per tonne as you say but I believe talks are not yet finalised on semi-soft coking coal yet.
Felix coal from Minerva sells at about US$5 below the benchmark price. The Yarrabee mine is due to complete its new washery in early 2009 and still needs Queensland State approval to increase PCI coal mined.
Much of Moolarben's thermal coal from the open-cut mines will be lower grade thermal and will be supplied to a new Hunter Valley power station.

Xstrata finished their production at the Ulan open-cut mine six weeks ago and all the equipment is now on a care and maintenance basis and stored on the Ulan tenement which is a question of the court case.
Felix and Xstrata could yet come to an agreement though I see no mention of it anywhere.

Felix will see some advantage in the tanking Aussie$ if it holds.
The thermal coal price is down to around US$154 per tonne out of Newcastle on Friday, about US$40 dollars down on the high six weeks ago.

Felix profit will rise a great deal in 2009 but the present 4.65 million tonnes of sales may not rise above 5.2million tonnes in Y/E 2009 as Yarrabee extra production will start in the second half. From shipping records out of Gladstone, Minerva coal sales in single ships are going well but rail problems from Yarrabee are restricting deliveries.

Felix have also sold 480,000 tonnes of thermal coal forward at only just over US$100 per tonne for delivery in 2009.

I can't see profits beyond the range $350 to $450 million for 2009, using my cost records out of the Ashton, Yarrabee and Minerva mines.


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## Quillan (15 August 2008)

Nice to meet you noirua. I can see from your previous contributions you are very knowledgeable in the Coal Market. Would it be impertinent to ask you to tell us more of your background? I reckon your postings carry much weight.You have scaled down my figures somewhat. That's what debate is about.
I see from the article in the Australian Financial Review today, that Vale of Brazil is in the driving seat to make a bid. Another top contender is un-named but one would think it may be Xstrata, due to the excellent fit, and the desire to get the 15% FLX Port facility in their hands. However, I have just read the latest in the AFR which says Xstrata is not in the talks, but Vale had raised AUD$13bn last month to use for a merger with Xstrata, which has now broken down 
The AFR also mentions China's Shenua Energy, who are after NSW's generation assets? 
Any comments from our sage? Yes, it's you noirua, I am referring to.
We need your wisdom !!
A minority shareholding is OK by me, as long as the management stays in control, and they keep a fair proportion of their shares, but my guess is a bid will not be at more than $25, unless there is a bid war.Nobody will want cash who has large CGT liabilities, but who wants Brazilian Paper? I realise Brazil is really booming and Vale is clearly a big player. 
I would rather wait for 18 months and see how the profits roll out, and Moolarben comes on stream. In the AFR article it quotes FLX as saying the Moolarben start will NOT be delayed.


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## noirua (15 August 2008)

There are a lot of us long-term holders of Felix stock around the world. Some still in Canada and the States.

The Moolarben story is quite confused, but don't think Mr Brian Flannery is really on unfriendly terms with Xstrata, he has to put forward this image in supporting Felix.
The Aussie Director in charge of Xstrata holdings in Australia is a long-term colleague of Brian Flannery and they worked together for Ulan Coal. It was Brian Flannery who purchased the tenement, that we are in court over, for Ulan Coal, when it was part of White Mining.

I get the feeling that this is all part of a game at the moment with 69% of the stock in the hands of AMCI and former White Mining executives. 

A thought only, that Xstrata might want to back their coal holdings in Australia into a quoted company ie Felix Resources. Perhaps naming it Xstrata Felix or perhaps XFR.
Xstrata have a battle in the UK in their bid for Lonmin and they're having to raise cash. So, raising more to bid for Felix may not be an option. Xstrata shares are very weak.


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## noirua (15 August 2008)

Information on Bloomberg does confirm their view that Cia. Vale do Rio Doce are about to bid for Felix Resources. Xstrata look out of the race now and they seem to have blown it, basically.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aXtdFyUywDJw&refer=australia


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## noirua (15 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Xstrata look out of the race now and they seem to have blown it, basically.



Xstrata, using terms from the old days, have proven themselves to be a tuppeny ha'penny outfit in the way they've dealt with Moolarben.


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## michael_selway (15 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Information on Bloomberg does confirm their view that Cia. Vale do Rio Doce are about to bid for Felix Resources. Xstrata look out of the race now and they seem to have blown it, basically.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aXtdFyUywDJw&refer=australia




Hm yep, very volatile in recent times, but still good imo



> Date: 13/8/2008
> Author: Gabriella Hold
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 5
> Sharemarket analysts say that selecting specific stocks can be a better approachthan investing in a market sector. Out of the 10 best performers in PortfolioPartners' Emerging Shares Fund, five were from the base metals or energysectors. Resources have been an essential part of portfolio growth sincemid-2007. Fund managers expect long-term value in industrial stocks, even thoughinvestors may be shy of possible pain




*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 47.8 195.1 248.7 
DPS 6.0 11.0 58.0 44.0 *



> Felix Surges Amid Speculation Vale May Seek Takeover (Update2)
> 
> By Jesse Riseborough and Rebecca Keenan
> 
> ...


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## Quillan (16 August 2008)

Re post #669.
Any of you go back to the 1980's, when obscure gold prospects and Ballymoney were the star hopes, or when the share price got down to the equivalent of about 5 cents? At that time I used to lunch regularly with Don O'Callaghan in London, on the Meekatharra expense account!!
Has anyone any word on Don. He wasn't too well the last time I heard, then he stopped answering my mails.
Noirua, please stop being so bashful and tell us how you are so well informed, without giving away any confidences!!:bigun2:


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## noirua (16 August 2008)

Mr Travis Duncan, Chairman of Felix Resources is also a Director, previously Chairman, of White Energy (WEC). This company has a complex life in its previous mix with White Mining, now part of Felix Resources.

One of the interesting factors with WEC is its development of new technology for upgrading sub-bitumous coals.
Felix have recently opened an office in Adelaide to advance their 3 to 4 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal reserves at their Phillipson Tenement in SA. The Ghan Railway runs straight through the reserves and on to Adelaide in the South and Darwin in the North.

White Energy:  http://www.whiteenergyco.com.au

The Benchmark thermal coal price rose $7.74 to US$163.90 on Friday 15th August.  This was after five weeks of straight falls.


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## noirua (16 August 2008)

From memory, I believe Meekatharra Minerals NL was born out of the company Meekatharra Central Gold NL who were delisted on 1/1/1944. There was a name change on 14/8/1980 to Meekatharra Minerals NL, not certain if there was another change in 1970 before that or not.

I am only an investor and have no contacts with anyone on the present Board of Directors or Management of Felix Resources.

I seem to remember seeing an obituary for Don O'Callaghan. Will check out and see what I can find for certain.


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## noirua (18 August 2008)

An SMH article that discusses the position of coal and possible bid scenarios for Felix Resources:  http://business.smh.com.au/business/no-end-in-sight-t0-xstratas-coal-hunt-20080817-3x1b.html?page=1


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## noirua (28 August 2008)

Felix Annual Results show Gross profits up 411% at $254.3 million.

A 50 cent final dividend will be paid on 30/10/2008.  Making 53 cents for the year against 6 cents paid in 2007.


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## michael_selway (28 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Annual Results show Gross profits up 411% at $254.3 million.
> 
> A 50 cent final dividend will be paid on 30/10/2008.  Making 53 cents for the year against 6 cents paid in 2007.




Hm looks like it mayhave beat estimates, esp the dividend!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.8 47.8 202.9 248.7 
DPS 6.0 11.0 57.0 44.0 *



> Felix Resources (Felix) is pleased to announce its profit before tax for FY2008 was $254.3 million which is a 411% increase on FY2007. This resulted in an NPAT of $188.5 million (2007: $47.2 million).
> This has been our best year by far with our attributable sales tonnage increasing by 24% to 4.6mt over FY2007 tonnage. With the current cash at bank of approximately $300 million, and a strong cash flow expected in FY2009 to fund the expansion of Yarrabee and Felix’s 80% share of Moolarben, the Board has declared a dividend of 50 cents per share franked to 30% payable on 31 October 2008 to shareholders registered on 15 October 2008




thx

MS


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## pacestick (29 August 2008)

The minister is changing the relevant legislation so it looks like Felix will gain from the change as the ministers intention in granting the mining lease was frustrated by ulkan/xstrata


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## noirua (30 August 2008)

pacestick said:


> The minister is changing the relevant legislation so it looks like Felix will gain from the change as the ministers intention in granting the mining lease was frustrated by ulkan/xstrata



The Moolarben development is presently mothballed and it may take up to 12 months before the matter is resolved.
This may mean the mine being put back to late 2010, instead of late 2009, and after the March 2010 opening of the extension to the Newcastle Port.

Felix are likely to push on and raise output from the Ashton Mine, that is selling mainly semi-soft coking coal. More thermal coal sales are likely from Ashton to make up for the shortfall from Moolarben in 2010.

Felix look likely to raise production to 5.2 million tonnes in 2009, thanks to Yarrabee increased production, from 4.6 million tonnes in 2008.
2010 is now likely to see production reduced from expectations to just 6 million tonnes. Increases coming from Ashton and Yarrabee.


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## Quillan (3 September 2008)

Hang on Noirua, Flannery said recently he did not anticipate any delay in the commissioning of Moolarben. You know something he doesn't? I see the Press is saying Xstrata is still interested in bidding. Their cause will not be helped by this announcement below. Words such as "foot" and "shot" come to 
mind !! 
This from Globalcoal. Any FLX followers not familiar with this site should visit it regularly for the Coal news items and the Friday fix for Newcastle thermal prices.
This letter below just written to Flannery. He knows I am quite a large shareholder in individual terms.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xstrata offers coal contracts to Japanese at $175/t
Xstrata Plc (XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) has tabled its offer to some Japanese utilities for thermal-coal term contracts starting in October at $175 a tonne, up 125 percent from a year ago, a source familiar with negotiations said on Monday.

"They offered (coal) at $175 a tonne during negotiations last week," said a source who is familiar with the Japanese position.

Reuters - 1-Sep-08 


As reported now on Globalcoal site. Included in email to Flannery
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Brian,
Shareholders need to understand what this means. Does it mean Xstrata is offering to tear up the existing April-April contract and charge an extra $50 to extend the contract through to October 2009?
For a Thermal user to think this is a good idea, they would have to be thinking that the contract price next April will be at least $225, to be in a break-even situation by October 2009.
Xstrata's offer price.
 Price April to April 2009 = $125+$175/2 = Av $150 for the year to April 2009 + $175 to October 2009, giving a total paid for 18 months on say 1m tonnes pa of $150m,--- plus $175 0n 500,000 tonnes in 6months to October 2009.= $237.5 million
Existing contracts pay $125m for 1mt to April 2009, so they would need to assume a price of $225 per tonne for 500,000 tonnes in the first 6 months from  April 2009, to pay the same costs for 1.5mt in the 18 month period.-- ie $237.5 million up to October 2009.
Does Xstrata know something we don't? Like war with Iran, which Bush would like to instigate, and Obama has shown his eagerness for, by cementing his bond with US-Israeli Groups.?
Either the Japanese will laugh in Xstrata's face, or there is some very serious merit in this proposal? Now Xstrata is not going to insult the Japanese customers with a wholly outrageous price proposal, and I must assume they are saying, "Tie this price of $175 down whilst you can still get it."
In which case we must be looking at $225 or more next April?
If the Japanese bite, will other contractors such as Felix follow suit?
I am thinking aloud as this letter will soon be on the Felix blog site,
Aussie Stock Forums.
This must be a hugely important negotiating factor with Vale or any other suitor, and I cannot imagine any Felix shareholders being bought out on the cheap when this news gets around.
Even you Brian will surely not accept a price of $40 a share if there seems to be strong evidence of a Thermal price well in excess of $150 within 7 months?
It's OK, I'm thinking aloud and realise you couldn't answer the question until someone comes out with an offer. Then we will see if it is to be a hostile bid
or not !!
I would think a statement from you would be keeping shareholders informed about the implications behind this Xstrata offer. For once they appear to have done Felix a favour !!
Slightly odd this, since it is now rumoured they would like to bid for Felix again.

Best wishes,
John.


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## noirua (5 September 2008)

An update from the Mudgee on the updating of the 1992 mining act and whether it can be retrospective in the case of Ulan v Moolarben:  http://mudgee.yourguide.com.au/news...al-battle-prompts-changes-to-act/1264042.aspx


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## michael_selway (5 September 2008)

noirua said:


> An update from the Mudgee on the updating of the 1992 mining act and whether it can be retrospective in the case of Ulan v Moolarben:  http://mudgee.yourguide.com.au/news...al-battle-prompts-changes-to-act/1264042.aspx




Still very good

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 208.6 268.2 249.8 
DPS 53.0 106.4 119.4 157.6 *



> Back
> Date: 29/8/2008
> Author: Mark Ludlow
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 58
> ...




thx

MS


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## noirua (6 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Still very good
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2008 2009 2010 2011
> ...



Some excellent info m_s.  Coal miners have fallen badly with the whole sector.  Probably a combination of the view that they became overpriced and the lack of faith, that coal prices can stay high with oil in sharp reverse.

The other side of the coal coin, not believed by sellers, is that a combination of the weak Aussie$, against the US$, will cushion any falls in coal prices.

Hopefully, the coal sector, especially in semi-soft coking coal, will remain very strong due to the number of power stations being built.


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## pacestick (6 September 2008)

Questions from a learner

1. does vales refusal to answer questions  on Felix at recent Brisbane conference indicate an interest
2 If the court wanted submissions by 28/08/2008 when will the court  make orders 
3.if the prospective buyer succeeds in their objective without a  takeover by say buying out several directors  what does this do to the share price


  just wondering


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## noirua (7 September 2008)

pacestick said:


> Questions from a learner
> 
> 1. does vales refusal to answer questions  on Felix at recent Brisbane conference indicate an interest
> 2 If the court wanted submissions by 28/08/2008 when will the court  make orders
> ...




Hi pacestick, MD Brian Flannery, did promise we would not end up with the same situation as at MCC.  That is, a larger holder selling stock and thereby blocking a potential bid.
From this, we can only trust that he has the word of all the major holders, who have 69% of Felix, that they will act together and not break ranks.

On the NSW Court of Appeal making orders. These I think were the words of Mr Brian Flannery, "the appeal court has not yet made any orders concerning the Ulan Land as to how this will affect the mining permit for Moolarben...". Submissions were due in within 21 days, but I believe further time has been given due to clarifications being sought.

On the Vale replys about any interest in Felix Resources. It is now known that Vale and Shenua Energy have been shown around Yarrabee, Ashton and Minerva mines. Maybe nothing will come of it all.


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## pacestick (7 September 2008)

thankyou I wondered why we hadnt heard from the court orders and while nothing may come of the interest shown by other miners. the fact that there is more than one is a vote of confidence in the future of the company ihttps://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif


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## Quillan (8 September 2008)

I wonder that no one, especially noirua has commented on my Post#681?
The fact that Xstrata thinks it can sell the idea of charging $175 for thermal coal from next month to some of its customers amazes me.

As I suggest, the only way Xstrata can persuade customers that this is a good deal is if they can convince customers that contract prices for April 2009-10 will be above $225.

Could tightness in the market be enough to cause this? If there is to be a serious confrontation with Iran in the next few months, you can bet the plans are already in place. Could that account for the huge rise in the Dollar against all currencies in the last few weeks? Wars are always good for the dollar. The state of the borrowings by the US Government means that the country is technically bankrupt

Those in the know will have already bet millions of dollars on Forex, if they are privy to such Bush plans.Could be his final swansong to make his close buddies even richer, and ensure plenty of Consultancy Fees and Directorships in his retirement?

Doesn't this purported attempted deal, which may have gone through, [we don't know], have enormous significance in any price negotiations for FLX?
I have passed this quote from Globalcoal to Flannery, back to Global London Office, and to Bloomberg.au for their comments or flaws in my argument.

I realise Flannery cannot reply at this point, but this possible deal by Xstrata has huge implications for coal-related costs everywhere, so these commentators should surely express an opinion. No responses so far.

If you are a FLX shareholder you should want to give this info max publicity with any media outlets you can think of. We need to get this debate under way, as part of our defence strategy. Local radio,TV, Newspapers etc.

Everything is not decided behind closed doors.The pressure on FLX to ensure we are not carpetbagged, just because it suits them to get out now, if that is the case, will be enormous, if Xstrata attempts to defend the price of $175 in public. We may bring this about if sufficient fury erupts in the media, at the suggestion that $225+ is on the cards for next April, which is only 7 months away.

USD$100 on the price of thermal is worth probably AUD$570m on the profits, less say 7% extra paid in state Taxes on the price, say $530m after this tax-- less Corporation Tax at 30%, gives net earnings of $370m, or $1.90 per share. If that is worth a PE of 20, then this $100 increase would be worth $38 on its own, to the FLX share price.

I assume in these rough calculations that PCI prices would increase at the same rate as thermal prices next year, if the proposition that $225+ is on the cards for next April.
I also assume that total [attributable to FLX] production next year will be 5mt
for all coals.

Lastly, where does the recent contributor--can't scroll down to check, but someone with a handle like w_s get his/her earnings/dividends for the next 5 years from? About 4 Posts down--#684?

I shall be very happy to stay with the present management if next year's dividend turns out to be 106 cents as suggested !!


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## Quillan (10 September 2008)

Discovered this in plugger.com.au which brings together all news items on Companies. Writing from Malta, I might miss some comments which you find locally.This was published on Sunday, but I had not heard about the story. Note also further down the date order a posting suggests Xstrata is still interested.

"DJ Felix Resources Draws Interest From BHP and Rio - Report
Sun. September 07, 2008; Posted: 06:22 PM
Stocks RSS
:batman:
 - FLRFF | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP.AU) and Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) have reportedly joined Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) in looking at purchasing coal miner Felix Resources Ltd. (FLX.AU).

Felix said in July it had been approached by a number of parties over a potential takeover and was holding discussions.

Without citing sources, The Australian Financial Review newspaper reported Monday in its Street Talk column that BHP and Rio have joined Vale in the data room for Felix, but said it is not clear if they have a genuine interest in the assets.

The newspaper said it appears there has been no serious interest from Chinese groups in bidding for Felix.


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## michael_selway (10 September 2008)

Quillan said:


> Discovered this in plugger.com.au which brings together all news items on Companies. Writing from Malta, I might miss some comments which you find locally.This was published on Sunday, but I had not heard about the story. Note also further down the date order a posting suggests Xstrata is still interested.
> 
> "DJ Felix Resources Draws Interest From BHP and Rio - Report
> Sun. September 07, 2008; Posted: 06:22 PM
> ...




Hm yeah could be interesting

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 208.0 284.4 240.2 
DPS 53.0 111.0 122.8 130.0 *









> Date: 29/8/2008
> Author: Mark Ludlow
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 58
> Vale global coal boss, Renato Paladino, declined to speak on the group'splans for Felix Resources in his address to the Brisbane Mining Club. Reportsrecently emerged that Vale had secured access to the listed Australian coalminer's data room. Paladino did, however, state that his Brazilian group iswell-positioned to withstand any supply and infrastructure challenges





thx

MS


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## Quillan (10 September 2008)

*Scrolling down to the Xstrata news item re $175 a tonne on plugger.com, 9 days ago, referred me to the original item in Business Spectator, which suggests a deal could be done at $160-$ 175, and also names the Japanese companies concerned,
Consequently I have just emailed this to BS, and copied to Flannery.at Felix.

"In your last para above I think you mean "potential" not "risk"?
This Xstrata offer to Japanese companies. Simple Maths says Xstrata must persuade them that next April prices must be above $225 for the deal to be at break even by October 2009, for any company which agrees to pay $175 from this October.
Another interesting point. Xstrata is said to be still interested in bidding for Felix Resources.Nice piece of defence material for FLX, isn't it?
"But we must base the valuation of our company on your declared submission that Thermal contracts next April will be above $225."
Or even to quote to another bidder."Xstrata reckons next April's contract price will be in excess of $225, so we will negotiate any offer you intend to make on that basis."
The possible extra US$100 on this year's $125 Thermal price is worth ON ITS OWN AU$38 per share to FLX, assuming a PE of 20, and allowing 7% sales tax, plus 30% corporation tax.
Add the present price of $19.20, which makes no allowance for the value of Moolarben, the Jewel in the Crown, which all bidders are after, and we come up with $57. 
Anything south of this FLX shareholders should reject. 
10mtpa from Moolarben in 2-3 year's time would value Moolarben at something like $60 a share, assuming a thermal price of $125 NOT $225, and a PE of 20.
This is a carpetbagging exercise by the surrounding hyenas. Send them packing !!*


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## noirua (11 September 2008)

I think we should all understand that China has at the moment stopped its Coal companies from selling on the open market. This restriction will be lifted sometime in the future.  Held up by continued deaths at smaller mines in the last few weeks. 
The above does put some uncertainty in the minds of investors, whether small or large, as to what the future coal price will bring.

Once the Newcastle Port expansion is completed, and remember the other expansions in Queensland, a lot more coal will hit the markets. Moolarben and Anvil Hill (recently renamed) will come onstream in 2010, as well as other mines in Australia.

So coal prices in Australia may well stay steady in Aussie$ terms but may fall back, as anticipated by Felix MD, Mr Flannery (citing his comments at the Sydney Mining Conference), in US$ terms.

Also, Felix contracts do not all start from 1st April. The dates are 1st January, 1st April, and 1st June, with some semi-soft coking coal prices fixed at no specific date.

Xstrata stock has fallen over 50% and they are having to raise a large sum for the takeover of Lonmin. It looks doubtful that they will bid now.

Only BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are able to bid with a part stock alternative (the bid by BHP for RIO could complicate matters).  They also have UK quotes that will satisfy investors there and German holders would probably prefer a European quote.


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## noirua (14 September 2008)

It seems that the Anglo/Swiss Xstrata Mining are about to drop out of their bid for the London quoted Lonmin, so the London Evening Standard says. The bid now looks too high as the platinum price falls and other previously interested parties say, they are no longer interested.

It now makes it quite a bit more likely that Xstrata will renew their interest in Felix Resources.


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## pacestick (14 September 2008)

bring it on be intersting to see how quick others are in responding to first mover.Im still looking for aq significant jump on fridays close just to scare other bidders off


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## noirua (14 September 2008)

pacestick said:


> bring it on be intersting to see how quick others are in responding to first mover.Im still looking for aq significant jump on fridays close just to scare other bidders off



Hope your right. I have now held Felix stock for nearly 26 years.  I last hoped for a bid in 2000, it never came.


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## pacestick (14 September 2008)

noirua said:


> I think we should all understand that China has at the moment stopped its Coal companies from selling on the open market. This restriction will be lifted sometime in the future.  Held up by continued deaths at smaller mines in the last few weeks.
> 
> It would appear that more deaths have occured at mines in china although not coal it may further delay the recomencement of exports
> 
> ...


----------



## michael_selway (14 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Hope your right. I have now held Felix stock for nearly 26 years.  I last hoped for a bid in 2000, it never came.




Hm it good that you have held on esp in recent years 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 208.0 265.4 362.3 
DPS 53.0 111.0 118.9 158.5 *






thx

MS


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## noirua (15 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm it good that you have held on esp in recent years
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2008 2009 2010 2011
> EPS 51.8 208.0 265.4 362.3
> ...



I suppose we all look at that chart and see two lines drawn showing a marked downward trend:  Then pointing out the bid situation and continued high coal prices.  Are we brave holding on or ...?


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## zaz (15 September 2008)

noirua said:


> I suppose we all look at that chart and see two lines drawn showing a marked downward trend:  Then pointing out the bid situation and continued high coal prices.  Are we brave holding on or ...?




Buffett has an appropriate quote (as he does for most things!). 

We're trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.


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## pacestick (16 September 2008)

I cant see the Lehman situation not reducing the possibility of takeover unless buyers were cashed up in their own right
Love to be wrong


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## noirua (16 September 2008)

pacestick said:


> I cant see the Lehman situation not reducing the possibility of takeover unless buyers were cashed up in their own right
> Love to be wrong



Hi, I haven't checked the cash held situations of Vale, BHP and Rio yet, though I guess they are in good shape.

Xstrata looks a good deal poorer now and look set to dump their bid for Lonmin, and as their shares are down 60% from 12 months highs, a bid for Felix looks doubtful now.

The benchmark thermal coal price fell US$10 last week as some companies turned back to gas.
Hopefully the Aussie$ will fall with the coal price and save the day. 

Companies holding lots of US$'s will see a Felix bid costing a lot less now. So, maybe a bid from a number of companies is likely now, even Peabody or AMCI themselves.


----------



## michael_selway (16 September 2008)

zaz said:


> Buffett has an appropriate quote (as he does for most things!).
> 
> We're trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.




Hm do you think FLX is bullish or bearish at current prices?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 208.0 265.4 362.3 
DPS 53.0 111.0 118.9 158.5* 







thx

MS


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## zaz (16 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm do you think FLX is bullish or bearish at current prices?
> 
> .....
> 
> ...




I think that Felix is WORTH a lot more than it's currently trading for. Probably between 25 and 35 AUD (even more with the current AUDUSD).

However I expect the SHARE price is almost entirely supported by the possibility of a bid. In the absence of such a bid I'd expect the same as happend to MCC. A drop of 33%. I could easily see a bid producing 33% on the upside. 

What do you think?

Cheers, Neil


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## Quillan (16 September 2008)

Vale is stacked with cash it raised when it proposed to take over Xstrata. 
$13 billion rings a bell. No doubt Noirua will confirm or correct !!!
I still reckon the Xstrata connection with Flannery is important, and the proximity of Ulan to Moolarben may be more significant than we realise. If Xstrata had the financial lines set up to bid for Lonmin, then FLX is comparative chicken feed. Note the reasonable number of 60,000 plus share purchasers of FLX today


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## zaz (16 September 2008)

I try not to read too much into random noise but how did Felix manage to close up 4.2% today and go out near the high for the day!


----------



## noirua (16 September 2008)

zaz said:


> I try not to read too much into random noise but how did Felix manage to close up 4.2% today and go out near the high for the day!



Interesting, though the types of trades do look fairly ordinary and picking off the fence does seem absent. Press comments have pointed towards Felix being undervalued despite the market turmoil. Maybe some see FLX as a good gamble in otherwise dire markets.

A bid of AU$26 would now cost about US$20.50 against US$24.60 not long ago (exchange rate London fix half hour ago, AU$1.277 to the US$1).


----------



## Reefer (16 September 2008)

The fall in the Aussie dollar must be cushioning the miners a fair bit imo. At around 78c against the USD at present and onlt two months back was 98c. 20% drop must add a little to the bottom line.  Superb performance by Felix today.


----------



## noirua (17 September 2008)

Quillan said:


> Vale is stacked with cash it raised when it proposed to take over Xstrata.
> $13 billion rings a bell. No doubt Noirua will confirm or correct !!!
> I still reckon the Xstrata connection with Flannery is important, and the proximity of Ulan to Moolarben may be more significant than we realise. If Xstrata had the financial lines set up to bid for Lonmin, then FLX is comparative chicken feed. Note the reasonable number of 60,000 plus share purchasers of FLX today



Hi Quillan, Your figure of $13 billion might be right as "Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce" are generating cash at a high rate.
At the half way point for Y/E 2008, Vale had generated $6.4 billion cash and that generation may well be nearer $10 - $12 billion by now. They held about $1.6 billion cash at Y/E 2007, so it looks as if you're spot on. You must have done your homework.
They have liabilities of $6 to $7 billion, as a bit of a guess, to date.

At the market price , afternoon today in the States, Vale stood at $19.80 a share, giving a market cap of around $103 billion. The PE Ratio is 10.0 and yield 2.05%.

Stocks 12 month high was $44.15 and low $19.78.


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## Quillan (17 September 2008)

Thank you Noirua. Praise indeed !! But actually I read it somewhere recently. I wouldn't mind taking Vale shares straight. In these times of turmoil and with the Vale price down 50%, I think it would be a good holding over 5 years. 
I see China's quarterly figures continue to leap ahead, so they seem set to continue  their amazing pace, which must be good for all of Vale's minerals.
With Brazil and much of South America on an upward curve, it certainly seems a good geographic area to invest quite a good proportion of assets. Perhaps we will be appearing on the Vale blog site soon !!
Another tempting FTSE 100 share is KAZ.L, the mining conglomerate in KAZAKSTAN. Don't run a mile !! It's based in London and the President of Kaz owns a chunk of the company. Also the company does a lot of good work in the country. But a PE of 4.75? Has been Pounds 20 recently. It has just missed its copper production figures by a tiny amount due to cold weather and maintenance work, but just look at all the producing assets it has !! 
The lost production was minimal when the copper price is riding high and it is#10 in the world in production. In June it was selling at P16. Now it's under 7 Pounds.Check it out. KAZ Not the pound, which of course would hurt me if the offer for FLX was in cash, and I wanted to bring it back to the UK. GBP-AUD has risen from $2.05 to $2.25 in the past few weeks.
My laptop has decided not to print the pound sign today. Could be an omen!!


----------



## zaz (17 September 2008)

Felix first mentioned a potential takeover on 28th July. It's now 6 weeks later. *Does anyone have any insight into what takes so long? Any thoughts on whether the chances are increasing or decreasing? *

Macarthur Coal first mentioned that they were in talks with "a 3rd party" on 21st April and it was around 1st July that he press announced Talbot's sale. That makes for about 9 weeks. 

Obviously this is a premier asset etc... but with everything going on in markets right now it seems that the chances of a successful transaction are decreasing. That said BHP and Vale are cashed up but there are many awesome opportunities out there aside from Felix at today's prices.

After all a buyer only needs to evaluate the financials (a few days to a week), evaluate their ability to pay (a few days) and then start negotiations. The Moolarben situation only affects a very small portion of the value in Felix so I don't believe that's holding things up. 

*I'm mostly curious as to what other people's thoughts are. *


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## pacestick (18 September 2008)

zaz 
The board has so much of the shares tied up that a hostile bid would be most unlikely to succeed . The amount of companies who are supposed to have looked at felix  would indicate that the first mover has to deal with a counter offer. While the company has significant other assets  the unclear situation on the big M is a factor with a number of potential bidders. Therefore they may be waiting the court orders which seem to have disapeared into Dr whos  Tardis.
that's my guess


----------



## noirua (18 September 2008)

There could be problems shortly starting with coke and coking coal.  Priced from US$240 to US$300 per tonne for semi-soft to coke.  With the US$ rising quickly we could see a sharp tumble to the US$160 - US$200 range for spot. 
In Aussies it is helped by the 21% plunge in the currency.

Thermal coal is in shorter supply as everyone with semi-soft coking coal is shipping it instead of thermal, because of the higher price.
Prices up to US$194 for thermal, already retreating quickly, could go under the US$125 per tonne agreement from 1st April last. 

The above setting is causing concern as it remains to be seen if the Newcastle Port problems help keep the price stronger than expected. QLD companies shipping out of Gladstone have mainly rail problems and are shipping out as fast as they can.

Felix have longer term agreements to supply coal.  This especially applies to the Moolarben future mine.


----------



## Quillan (18 September 2008)

Here's my Penny's worth. We will either read of an agreed bid, or a withdrawal of all interests. There's no point in announcing a bid which doesn't have the approval of the Directors, and possibly of 67% of shareholders, so the negotiations will continue until an agreed price, or share swap is struck.
The good news is that the time taken suggests they are dealing with more than one bidder, unless  Moolarben is the sticking point.
According to Flannery the outcome of any alterations in the Law concerning these 2 pieces of land, would probably only affect 5mt I think? of total production.The change in the law was to be a clarification.It seems this is in FLX's favour, since the Government didn't like Xstrata's behaviour over the disputed turf.
If there is only one bidder, then the bidder has the upper hand. 
"That's our final offer. You know what will happen to the share price if it is not accepted."
But with 2 bidders, the scenario is very different. Neither wants to lose the prize to the other.
Good to see 2 sizeable trades at the end of today, but hardly surprising to see the price drifting a bit.
One wonders who is buying 100,000 shares at this stage, unless they know something?
Considering the state of the rest of the markets, and the falls in the major mining conglomerates, Felix shareholders have fared well. I'm hanging in there.
Whatever offer may have been made 6 weeks ago, will not now be so generous, unless there are 2 or more really keen to get their hands on these assets.


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## noirua (18 September 2008)

Quillan said:


> Good to see 2 sizeable trades at the end of today, but hardly surprising to see the price drifting a bit.
> One wonders who is buying 100,000 shares at this stage, unless they know something?




Hi, I couldn't see these 100,000 trades you talked about.  Early on there was a 246,090 T1-51, at $17.69 that took the price down firmly at the start. Recovered to end at $18.25.  There were some listed crossings at the end of the day from Wednesday.


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## noirua (19 September 2008)

++++Growth Story of the Year Award - 2008++++

Winner ---  Felix Resources
nominees:  Gloucester Coal and Aquila Resources

Sponsored by the "Sydney Mining Club".


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## noirua (21 September 2008)

Some more matched trades near the end of the day that look a bit like someones picking up stock gradually.


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## michael_selway (21 September 2008)

noirua said:


> ++++Growth Story of the Year Award - 2008++++
> 
> Winner ---  Felix Resources
> nominees:  Gloucester Coal and Aquila Resources
> ...




Hey interesting, do you have any links?

btw do you have AQA?

*AQA - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -6.6 -6.0 34.2 48.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0* 


thx

MS


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## noirua (21 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hey interesting, do you have any links thx
> MS




This link may not work first off, I will try to get it right:
http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en...lly_Competitive_Australian_Mining_Sector.html


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## michael_selway (21 September 2008)

noirua said:


> This link may not work first off, I will try to get it right:
> http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en...lly_Competitive_Australian_Mining_Sector.html




Yep looks good 


2008 National Mining Awards Recognise The Globally Competitive Australian Mining Sector




> Sydney, Sept 18, 2008 (ABN Newswire) - The Australian 2008 National Mining Awards held on the 14-16th September, recognise the globally competitive Australian mining sector. Leading the list of achievements are:
> 
> The Producer of the year Award: Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG)
> The Discovery of the Year Award: Newexco
> ...


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## zaz (21 September 2008)

Events over the last few days have increased the chance of news this week:

1. No Short selling -- anyone announcing a deal with scrip is not going to have to deal with arbs shorting their stock
2. No new short selling of FLX, may have seen a short term low in the stock
3. Aussie dollar has probably turned around - foreign buyers are paying more as the AUD strengthens

All together along with the change in sentiment might be enough for one of the procrastinating on lookers to move forward with a deal. It looks like a different land scape to last Wednesday!


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## pacestick (22 September 2008)

zaz I like your positiveness what do you make iof the late trades friday someone get a tip about shorting freeze


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## zaz (22 September 2008)

pacestick said:


> zaz I like your positiveness what do you make iof the late trades friday someone get a tip about shorting freeze




I think the chance has improved but I have no idea what it was before. maybe it went from 25% to 35% or from 85% to 90%! 

I doubt that anyone knew about the radical ASIC changes ahead of time. They're almost unbelievable. I don't have the skills to analyze the late trades but I don't think anyone is shorting FLX on a sustained basis. Not least because news flow could cause a sharp rally. Evidence of that is probably today's performance.

I do have the skills to analyze the value of Felix and with current coal prices it's in the mid 30's. There is a chance that a tilt last week could have seen the company go out in the mid 20s while sentiment was at an all time low. Now sentiment is improving and so is the AUD.


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## noirua (22 September 2008)

A lawsuit may go ahead concerning Felix Resources (Auiron Energy) by PT Krakatau Steel (PTKS).
This action concerns the 5% holding by PTKS in S.A.S.E. (Felix 90%, Ausmelt 5%).
S.A.S.E. were responsible for the Pig Iron Furnace that was to become a 2.5mtpa production using iron ore from Peculiar Knob and Hawks Nest iron ore tenements and coal from the Phillipson tenement, all in South Australia. The feasibility plant is now owned by Ausmelt and is to be used for non-ferrous production.
This possibility had been mentioned in earlier reports from Felix Resources.


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## pacestick (25 September 2008)

If this article proves true will felixs future sales be negativley impacted

                                          SocGen warns China will suffer a deep slump P
"The collapse of emerging market economies will shake investors to the core. The great unwind has only just begun," said Albert Edwards, the bank's global strategist.
"The big surprise in store is what could happen in China. The potential for a deep recession in the US is already on the radar screen, but people will be stunned if China's economy contracts, as I believe it will. Investors could be massively caught out," he said.
"The consensus has a touching belief that emerging markets will prove resilient despite a deep downturn in developed economies. My view is that an outright contraction in global GDP is entirely possible next year."
"The emerging market boom is totally tied up with a decade of ballooning current account deficits in the US. Put that into reverse and you'll be surprised what pops out of the woodwork."
Mr Edwards said the vast accumulation of foreign exchange reserves – led by China with $1.8 trillion – had provided the "rocket fuel" of liquidity for frontier markets. This virtuous circle has now turned vicious as America tightens its belt. Countries in Asia and Latin America are intervening to prop up their currencies, causing reserves to fall.
"We could see monthly trade surpluses in the US within a year. The emerging market liquidity squeeze will intensify ferociously, and assets linked to the region will become toxic waste. That includes previously resilient banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered and Banco Santander," he said.
The gloomy forecast comes as Fitch Ratings warns of mounting distress for banks in China, where debt has been shunted off books to circumvent state limits on credit growth.
The pattern looks eerily like the use of "conduits" by Western banks at the height of the credit bubble.
The agency's China team, Charlene Chu and Chunling Wen, said banks had used an "underground market" on a large scale to stoke up lending. "These types of credit and/or institutions fall outside the traditional structures of financial supervision, exposing banks to a growing amount of risk that is for the most part hidden By getting a portion of their credit off books, Chinese banks are able to comply with official loan quotas while in practice exceeding them," he said.
Under the mechanism, the loans are packaged into wealth products and sold to investors searching for bumper yields. The parallel with the US sub-prime debacle is striking, although Fitch avoids an explicit parallel.
Moreover, the banks issue "entrusted loans" in which they act as piggy-in-the-middle between two sets of clients, keeping the credits of the portfolio sheet. These loans have reached 1.5 trillion yuan ($220bn).
Even without such off-books liabilities, the banks are facing a crunch as the economy slows hard and the property market stalls. Shenzen house prices are already down 30pc.
"The Chinese banking system is nearing the point at which it can no longer sustain additional large net withdrawals of liquidity without generating further strains on banks' ability to lend," it said.
Morgan Stanley said this month that China's housing market was heading for a "melt-down". Data is patchy and rarely reliable, but it is clear that home sales in Beijing, Shanghai and other Eastern cities have fallen drastically over the summer.
source daily telegraph


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## noirua (25 September 2008)

Hi pacestick, an interesting post on China and it is reported that coal is now building up in the ports in China. Restrictions are still in place, but for how much longer.

The price of "spot" coal out of Newcastle has fallen and was reported at US$137 (thermal coal) last Friday (still above the US$125 fix on 1st April 2008).  The Aussie Dollar has fallen about 13% against the US$ and helps the price.

Felix have no problems with coal sales in the year ending June 30th 2009. It is what happens after that.


----------



## noirua (25 September 2008)

It appears that the Moolarben Project may now go ahead after a change in the wording of the Mining Act was passed in the NSW Parliament today. Trading in FLX stock rose to over 1.6 million shares the highest for several years.


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## zaz (26 September 2008)

Some bad news courtesy of Reuters:

SYDNEY, Sept 26 (Reuters) - A planned sale of Australian coal miner Felix Resources Ltd has generated interest from local and global miners despite recent market volatility, but the high price expectations could delay a deal.

.......

"It's looking less likely the transaction will happen in the near term," said the banker, who declined to be identified. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSYD36521720080926?rpc=44

Mind you, I'm no banker, nor am I familiar with the deal BUT I could also reasonably assume that a deal has become less likely.... in the short term.


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## pacestick (26 September 2008)

some large transactions afyer close  is that someone getting ready for takeover or just a coincidence


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## noirua (26 September 2008)

Providing estimates for Felix Resources profits are correct, then they wiill reach $1.12 billion in 2011 ( $784 million after tax for 2011, a forward PE of 4.5 at $18.00).

Analysts estimate profits, on average, at $2.10 a share in 2009, $411 million ( after tax $288 million, for a PE of 12.2 at $18.00)

The Reuters article is only correct, when it states mostly thermal coal, when it refers to Moolarben. Ashton mine is principally semi-soft coking coal and Yarrabee PCI coal.  Minerva is PCI and thermal which is of consistant quality and exported in single ship loads.


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## noirua (29 September 2008)

Felix Resources jumped $1.45 to $19.45 this morning on the ASX announcement that they are still in talks with more than one party, concerning a change of control announcement, and expect to make an announcement in the next couple of weeks.


----------



## pacestick (29 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources jumped $1.45 to $19.45 this morning on the ASX announcement that they are still in talks with more than one party, concerning a change of control announcement, and expect to make an announcement in the next couple of weeks.



movement on the station we need the word to get around about the coal from ther ground  see if they know about mining up queensland way


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## pacestick (30 September 2008)

hopefully these parties are well funded because borr it is my understanding that with congress rejecting the bailout borrowing just became a whole lot harder


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## noirua (30 September 2008)

pacestick said:


> hopefully these parties are well funded because borr it is my understanding that with congress rejecting the bailout borrowing just became a whole lot harder




Felix Resources are bound to be affected by events with mining stocks falling 8% to 20% in one day in Europe and America.

The bid should still be alive because the Aussie$ has fallen about 16% against the greenback. A share mix is looking less likely as the bidders shares plummet.

Xstrata are out of the bid situation now as their shares have collapsed 68% from their 2007 high and their bid for Lonmin is probably off now.


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## Quillan (30 September 2008)

It would seem to me quite possible that the terms of a deal have been agreed with just the minor points to be filled by the lawyers.
Why else should Flannery put a 2 week suggested resolution time? If there was no deal at the moment, how could he put any time period on the negotiations possibly being finalised? 
There are 2 or more bidders still in the frame, but perhaps the terms with one are ready to be recommended, unless another party is willing to improve on these terms.
We are fortunate that more than one suitor is still in the picture.
Of course there is still time for the international meltdown to scupper everything, so we are walking a tight-rope.Today's turnover in shares show many opting to take their money off the table now. Understandable. Fortune favours the brave?  Sometimes !!


----------



## noirua (30 September 2008)

Quillan said:


> It would seem to me quite possible that the terms of a deal have been agreed with just the minor points to be filled by the lawyers.
> Why else should Flannery put a 2 week suggested resolution time? If there was no deal at the moment, how could he put any time period on the negotiations possibly being finalised?
> There are 2 or more bidders still in the frame, but perhaps the terms with one are ready to be recommended, unless another party is willing to improve on these terms.
> We are fortunate that more than one suitor is still in the picture.
> Of course there is still time for the international meltdown to scupper everything, so we are walking a tight-rope.Today's turnover in shares show many opting to take their money off the table now. Understandable. Fortune favours the brave?  Sometimes !!




Strange that, similar to that which I just posted on another website.  All great minds think alike.
The tanking of the Aussie dollar against the greenback, by 17% or so, should bring in the bids.


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## michael_selway (1 October 2008)

noirua said:


> Strange that, similar to that which I just posted on another website.  All great minds think alike.
> The tanking of the Aussie dollar against the greenback, by 17% or so, should bring in the bids.




Yep the suspense of a bid is so ,

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 208.0 265.4 362.3 
DPS 53.0 111.0 118.9 158.5 *

But yeah the price will be interesting. If you see howmuch they paid for NHC and LNC assets recently, it can be alot of cash 



> Quote from another forum
> 
> I guess we shall find out in couple of weeks time who outbids the rest for Felix. In the meantime, worth revisiting some tech bits from the recent quarterly,
> 
> ...


----------



## noirua (2 October 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Yep the suspense of a bid is so ,
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2008 2009 2010 2011
> ...




The price will be interesting as Xstrata have just announced they can't raise the AU$12 billion required to takeover Lonmin. Lonmin shares have dived.
Even the BHP bid for Rio is thought in danger of being dropped despite the Aussie approval.


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## michael_selway (2 October 2008)

noirua said:


> The price will be interesting as Xstrata have just announced they can't raise the AU$12 billion required to takeover Lonmin. Lonmin shares have dived.
> Even the BHP bid for Rio is thought in danger of being dropped despite the Aussie approval.




Do you think Peabody Coal is a likely predator as they have taken over Excel Coal in the past?

thx

MS


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## noirua (3 October 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Do you think Peabody Coal is a likely predator as they have taken over Excel Coal in the past? thx MS




I did hear that Peabody were back interested in Felix after the 20% drop in the Aussie$ against the Greenback. The Peabody share price is down 50%.

It seems that Vale are a good deal less interested, and that leaves BHP and Rio the only others.

Some think that the BHP shares and cash offer, supposedly leaked, may not be worth that much with the BHP stock price falling to a low yesterday. Some say, though not verified, that BHP's offer, on the table, is one share in BHP plus $12 in cash for two shares in Felix.


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## Rastan (6 October 2008)

as it has done ever since I bought into this wonderful piece of crap... dooooooooooooooooooown 15% today... mutherf^&*er... this stock has obliterated my portfolio... 6 months salary gone just on this pig in 3 weeks... ouch ouch ouch...


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## noirua (7 October 2008)

Rastan said:


> as it has done ever since I bought into this wonderful piece of crap... dooooooooooooooooooown 15% today... mutherf^&*er... this stock has obliterated my portfolio... 6 months salary gone just on this pig in 3 weeks... ouch ouch ouch...



Sorry to hear the news of your misfortune with Felix Resources stock. Some were fortunate to buy in 1979 at 55 cents or 38 cents in 2003, not much consolation I know, so many are still happy with the performance. 

The Aussie$ falling 33% will ramp up profits for Felix in Y/E 30/6/2009.  It won't be all one way traffic as the opportunity to sell at high spot prices is likely to evaporate. 

It will be interesting to see if the semi-soft and PCI coal prices slump or not, in the face of lessening demand for steel. 

Hope it improves for you Rastan. The share price performance has been awful but the companies is very good.


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## pacestick (7 October 2008)

tend to  agree with noirua  wish i had more loot to buy in now dont have to sell bvecause never have and never will buy on margin is an excellent company biggest danger for me is that sale will take place below $17.80 that i bought at would prefer no sale to that dont have the readies to average down either. Can take an optonmistic view as over the years I have taken more out of market than i have ever put in only do this for fun and a bit of pocket money dont think im good enough to majke aliving at it. Always suspicious that the combination of margin borrowing and short selling would come back to bite those who did it.Unfortunatly we are all getting collateral damage


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## noirua (7 October 2008)

pacestick said:


> tend to  agree with noirua  wish i had more loot to buy in now dont have to sell bvecause never have and never will buy on margin is an excellent company biggest danger for me is that sale will take place below $17.80 that i bought at would prefer no sale to that dont have the readies to average down either. Can take an optonmistic view as over the years I have taken more out of market than i have ever put in only do this for fun and a bit of pocket money dont think im good enough to majke aliving at it. Always suspicious that the combination of margin borrowing and short selling would come back to bite those who did it.Unfortunatly we are all getting collateral damage




I broke my promise to myself not to buy any more stock, added a few as they went under $12.00. Profits should rocket in 2009 and the low cost Moolarben open-cast mine should be producing in late 2009 or early 2010.
The low Aussie will add greatly to profits and the analysts average profit forecast of $412 million should still be achieved in these tougher markets, in Y/E 30th June 2009.


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## fawkner (8 October 2008)

Have held Meekatharra/Auiron/Felix since 1990 when Ballymoney, Northern Ireland was all the rage. Now that coal mines in the UK are becoming a viable consideration again, what value does Felix put on their interests there, or have they virtually "written off" lignite? It seemed once to be a valuable proposition.


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## noirua (8 October 2008)

fawkner said:


> Have held Meekatharra/Auiron/Felix since 1990 when Ballymoney, Northern Ireland was all the rage. Now that coal mines in the UK are becoming a viable consideration again, what value does Felix put on their interests there, or have they virtually "written off" lignite? It seemed once to be a valuable proposition.



Hi fawkner, The Northern Ireland Government is due to look at the mining license situation near Ballymoney at the latter end of 2009. There was a lot of opposition supported by the, now ruling DUC. The opposition group have been given charity status and are well organized.  
Chances of a mine are quite unlikely as the Ballymoney area is prosperous with unemployment near zero. About 95% against the mine and power station.


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## tomsum (9 October 2008)

Seems to have taken a few hits over the last few days, I'm a very new poster here and have only just added FLX to my watchlist because it looked like an interesting share. Does anyone who has been watching the share for a long time have any thoughts? 

Cheers,

Tom.


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## noirua (10 October 2008)

Felix Resources have now been dumped like all the rest and it is important now to look at the companies value at the present price.
The battle is to sell coal and take the advantages of the low Aussie$.
First Quarter results will be out in a few weeks and the AGM on 31st October 2008.

Downside for all coal miners is whether they agree to holding back semi-soft and PCI coal deliveries: Thermal coal deliveries are likely to be more certain. Later will be agreements for coal from 1st January, 1st April and 1st August 2009.

Everything points to excellent results in Y/E 2009 and a complete reassessment  for profits in Y/E 2010.


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## noirua (10 October 2008)

To hell with it all!  Seeing Felix drop below $9.00 I just had to buy a few more, despite being a bit top heavy in this one. 
I have great faith in the Aussie economy and especially in exports of thermal coal.
These power stations will need coal and few will shut down. Steel is an entirely different matter as companies will head for the tubes.
Coal prices will plummet but the weak Aussie Dollar will give a helping hand.


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## Quillan (10 October 2008)

When Flannery made his announcement 2 weeks ago saying he hoped to report further within 2 weeks, the share price was $19. Is it illegal for a Party in discussions to deal in the target shares?  
My point is, the shares have been dumped in that period. Suppose a Party, or some other interest in collusion, sold 5m shares short? This halved the share price. The bidder comes back and says, "The $25 we were negotiating is no longer on the table. Now it's got to be $15". They could probably buy those shares back now, and the price would still not be above $15. But if the deal was then agreed by the Directors, the bidder would have saved $10 on the subsequent purchase of around 190 million shares.It wouldn't matter if they didn't buy them back until after they had acquired the company. It wouldn't cost them more than the agreed bid price
Of academic interest, how many of us would have sold out prior to the possible bid talks, had there been no possible takeover, purely on the grounds of the worsening economic condition.? 
I reckon most of us were only hanging on for a bid to be announced. It has cost us half the value of our shareholding.
This is one for Noirura's fertile brain. We  are waiting !!


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## noirua (10 October 2008)

Quillan said:


> When Flannery made his announcement 2 weeks ago saying he hoped to report further within 2 weeks, the share price was $19. Is it illegal for a Party in discussions to deal in the target shares?
> My point is, the shares have been dumped in that period. Suppose a Party, or some other interest in collusion, sold 5m shares short? This halved the share price. The bidder comes back and says, "The $25 we were negotiating is no longer on the table. Now it's got to be $15". They could probably buy those shares back now, and the price would still not be above $15. But if the deal was then agreed by the Directors, the bidder would have saved $10 on the subsequent purchase of around 190 million shares.It wouldn't matter if they didn't buy them back until after they had acquired the company. It wouldn't cost them more than the agreed bid price
> Of academic interest, how many of us would have sold out prior to the possible bid talks, had there been no possible takeover, purely on the grounds of the worsening economic condition.?
> I reckon most of us were only hanging on for a bid to be announced. It has cost us half the value of our shareholding.
> This is one for Noirura's fertile brain. We  are waiting !!



Hi Quillan, If you look back on many of my past posts you will see I remained in 70% to 80% cash and US bonds. That cash % rose with the collapse in coal stocks.
I'm now picking up small amounts of stock and that includes the uranium sector.
This is a gamble I know but there you goes.

Gloucester Coal have just announced a $28 million buyback of shares.  This looks to be the way for profitable mining stocks and I feel comfortable with the cash rich companies in the mining sector.

My view only maybe, I don't know, keep calm, don't fume and just wait.


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## Quillan (11 October 2008)

Hang on Noirua, I wasn't fuming. I was merely suggesting a possible scenario if potential bidders are permitted to enter the market, when they are in possession of sensitive information supplied by Felix, to enable them to form an opinion of Felix's true worth.
But here's some encouraging news for us shareholders, published yesterday, but courtesy of the GlobalCoal site. Ok, it only points to the bumper profits to be earned this year, but enjoy the news report.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aussie dollar's demise powers coal industry profits
AUSTRALIAN coal exporters of every type are enjoying a double-whammy windfall from export prices that has seen their gross revenue rise by more than 150 per cent since the start of 2008.

Both thermal coal and coking coal producers have found themselves with exploding margins thanks to a mixture of sharply increased long-term contract prices, signed within the last month and backdated to April 1, and the sharp drop in the value of our dollar to around the US70c level in recent days.

"Everyone's smiling," said Colin Randall, editor of the Hunter Valley Coal Report email newsletter and a long-time coal watcher.

He said that even though the spot price for steaming coal, used in power stations, had dropped from around $US190 to $US130 in recent weeks, prices of almost every type of steaming coal were at historic highs because of revised contract prices and the recent drop in the dollar.

Mr Randall said annual price negotiations with the Japanese power utilities, which lifted US dollar-denominated coal export contract prices by more than 100 per cent in many cases, had begun when our dollar was close to parity and concluded only "a couple of weeks ago" when our dollar was dropping sharply.

About 70 per cent of Hunter Valley coal is bought by Japanese power utilities on contract.

Coal price numbers from Royal Bank of Canada Capital markets, adjusted to Australian dollar equivalents, show the price received for steaming coal delivered to ships at Newcastle "free on board" has jumped from around $65 a tonne at the start of this year for some types to around $178 now, and even at spot prices, supposedly battered by the financial crisis, they are getting around $157.

"The loudest noise in Newcastle is 'ka-ching, ka-ching' as the coal producers check their revenue numbers," Mr Randall said.

Assuming a cash cost of production of around $50 a tonne, the producers' gross margin has jumped from around $15 to almost $128 now, an increase of exponential scale.

The windfall story is even stronger in Queensland in hard coking coal, despite the higher cost of production, conservatively estimated at $100 a tonne, because some Bowen Basin mines are underground and all are further from the coast.

Hard coking coal is top of the range and is only used in steelmaking, which has been widely touted as heading for a major drop-off as steel demand eases.

But Queensland producers have seen their contract price jump from around $112 a tonne at the end of last year to about $428 a tonne, an all-time high and an increase of about 280 per cent in 10 months. Those prices are guaranteed, in US dollars, until the end of March 2009.

There are very few spot sales of hard coking coal because steelworks regard supply as critical and the market is illiquid. Again, the price has slipped, but only from $US400 a tonne, reportedly for one cargo, back to $US365.

Converted to Australian dollars at today's rates, that supposedly lower price is a nosebleed $521 a tonne.

source: www.theaustralian.news.com.au 09 October 2008


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## noirua (11 October 2008)

Hi, sounds good that post Quillan, unfortunately it's not quite in the real world of today, more in the world of September 2008, an age away.

MGX reported that companies are trying to delay deliveries of iron ore despite contracts and it seems likely that they will also try and delay all the grades of coking coal.
Companies are going bust already in the steel sector as they have difficult servicing development loans, and you get nothing for your coal if the companies is bust.

Felix will suffer as demand drops for semi-soft coking coal and, I expect, PCI coal. However, Y/E 2009 will be a good one even if their is a drop-off quarter by quarter in coal required. 
Yes, Felix will gain from the retreating Aussie$ but new contracts in 2009 may tumble considerably. Again, having said that, Felix have could partners at Ashton and Minerva. Only Yarrabee is looking a bit lonely with PCI coal expansion from 1.7mtpa to 2.8mtpa and no partners.


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## pacestick (11 October 2008)

Tensd to agree with you Noirua. Good returns till June. Then we have to wait for real economy to recover  could be my guess two to four years. Bit of talk about mkt at or near the bottom at the moment I dont think so the hedge funds probalyt still have alot of redemptions to cover over the next three months and the only way they can do that is by selling. My guess is we mays ee the bottom first quarter 2009 and the shares such as felix will bounce along the bottom for at least one more quarter before slowly rising. We still have excellenta ssets which will eventually be in demand again


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## michael_selway (11 October 2008)

pacestick said:


> Tensd to agree with you Noirua. Good returns till June. Then we have to wait for real economy to recover  could be my guess two to four years. Bit of talk about mkt at or near the bottom at the moment I dont think so the hedge funds probalyt still have alot of redemptions to cover over the next three months and the only way they can do that is by selling. My guess is we mays ee the bottom first quarter 2009 and the shares such as felix will bounce along the bottom for at least one more quarter before slowly rising. We still have excellenta ssets which will eventually be in demand again




Yeah it will be interesting

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 216.7 265.4 362.3 
DPS 53.0 111.0 118.9 158.5 *









> Date: 26/9/2008
> Author: Jamie Freed
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 21
> Australian-listed coal mining group Felix Resources has received strong backingfrom the New South Wales (NSW) Government. It will retrospectively change thestate's Mining Act to negate a decision by the NSW Court of Appeal that hadbeen unfavourable for Felix. Rival Xstrata had sought to prevent Felix fromoperating a mine on land adjacent to its own at Mudgee, but the law change meansthe Moolarben thermal coal project, worth $A405m, can proceed. The issue hadbeen whether Xstrata was bound by a 28-day deadline for objections, which it letpass due to a potential merger with Felix at the time
> ...


----------



## agro (11 October 2008)

i missed the opp to get on the FLX ride to $20

had it on my watchlist earlier this year around 7 

might be my time to get in soon


----------



## noirua (13 October 2008)

A report from the Sunday Morning Herald on how the bid situation is going for Felix Resources:  http://business.smh.com.au/business...decision-on-global-auction-20081012-4z5c.html


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## noirua (14 October 2008)

ASX announcement that bid talks now include other parties but will not be completed within the original time frame due to market volatility.


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## zaz (14 October 2008)

I think that in a market like this deals take a lot longer than expected but they can still get done. I also think that FLX is motivated to sell at the right price and they want to make sure they sell their life's work - FLX at the best price. 

It sounds like the auction is continuing. It also sounds like the original offers may not have been good enough so they're talking to other potential buyers. The alternative explanation is that the original buyers have made a decent offer and FLX is just making sure that there isn't something even better out there.

What does everyone make of the announcement?
Do you think this means a deal is more or less likely?
I'm really interested in other people's thoughts...


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## noirua (15 October 2008)

zaz said:


> I think that in a market like this deals take a lot longer than expected but they can still get done. I also think that FLX is motivated to sell at the right price and they want to make sure they sell their life's work - FLX at the best price.
> 
> It sounds like the auction is continuing. It also sounds like the original offers may not have been good enough so they're talking to other potential buyers. The alternative explanation is that the original buyers have made a decent offer and FLX is just making sure that there isn't something even better out there.
> 
> ...



Reuters have reported that the original talks with several parties have in fact failed. New talks are now taking place with a few other parties.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssCoal/idUSSYU00529220081014


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## Quillan (24 October 2008)

I realise that Noirua is something of an expert in the field, but don't take everything he says as Gospel.

He tells us he has bought some more shares below $9, and then talks about plummeting coal prices. See Posts #743,,#748 and later.


MacAthur has just reported non-thermal sales are holding up well.Noirua reckons 2009-10 Thermal contracts will be severely lower.

Here's an opinion which doesn't subscribe to his views. I wonder who has the better judgement?

I am not being unduly optimistic, but just pointing out there are other informed views, and I imagine that Flannery's arguments will be largely based on the kind of opinions expressed below.

Remember, Spot prices have little relevance to Contracted coal. Obviously with the fall in demand, the demand for top-up supplies from the Spot market has all but disappeared.

Here's today'y quote from Globalcoal:

"Newcastle coal traded below the $125 a ton contract price for a third week and is 46 percent off a record $194.79 set for the week ended July 4. The monthly index fell 10 percent to $144.82 a ton in September from $160.90 the previous month.

``The risk is still on the downside and sentiment is very much focusing around demand at the moment, not supply,'' ANZ's Pervan said.

Declines `Overdone'

Still, demand for thermal coal remains intact and price declines are ``overdone,'' analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in an Oct. 17 report, where they maintained their forecast for a 16 percent gain in 2009 contract prices to $145 a ton.

``The `low' thermal spot price will undoubtedly be used by consumers as evidence of softening demand and hence justification for a reduction in the Japanese fiscal year 2009 contract benchmark,'' analysts led by Sydney-based Geoff Breen said. ``We would point out again that most sales are not spot sales and physical coal sales into the spot market have been for small volumes and trade has for the most part been in coal swaps.''

Exports from Newcastle, the world's biggest export harbor for the fuel, fell 10 percent in the week ended 7 a.m. local time today, dropping to 1.7 million tons from 1.9 million tons a week earlier, Newcastle Port Corp. said today on its Web site. A total of 25 ships, waiting to load 2.1 million tons of coal, were lined up outside the port, up from 24 last week.

Coal ships waited 8.8 days to load coal in the week, up from 8.6 days a week earlier, Newcastle Port said. The waiting time compared with 0.08 day for general cargo vessels last week, it said.


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## noirua (24 October 2008)

Felix Resources 1st quarterly report is out next Wednesday and should show exactly how coal sales are going.  So, Wednesday or at the AGM on Friday, we will probably here a view on currency expectations and the position FLX is in.

It is the price obtained in Aussie dollars that is all important now and whether there are plans to reduce production, or indeed, consider if any plans for Moolarben should be put back.

The Felix share price seems to have taken into account the likely lower coal price, especially PCI and semi-soft coking coal, and hopefully we can see some recovery in the coming months.


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## pacestick (24 October 2008)

Im just counting on this being a long term play now as the world slows down then restarts could be, well my guess is  four years,  just a guess before this share is worth the $35.00 plus it should be. could of done without a lot of slick salesmen selling  credit that their companies didnt have to sell to people who had no hope of repaying it


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## noirua (29 October 2008)

Deliveries for October 2008, out of the R G Tanna terminal , Gladstone. ( will miss first quarter).

Yarrabee (100%) 84,815 tonnes ( equates to 1.02 mtpa against 1.8mtpa target: extra coal is sold internally.)

Minerva (51%) 248,820 tonnes ( equates to 3mtpa, 1.52mtpa (51%) against target 1.275mtpa).


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## noirua (30 October 2008)

Link to Felix Resources first quarterly report to the 30th September 2008:  http://www.felixresources.com.au/siteadmin/mod_pdf/pdfs/20081029_September_2008_Quarterly_Report.pdf


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## noirua (31 October 2008)

Felix Resources have closed the week quite well at $11.86 after plunging below $8.00 the week before.
This has been mainly on the AGM Friday that was fairly upbeat on prospects for the Yarrabee mine and the Moolarben Project, the latter being a shallow low cost mine.
The week Aussie has helped keep coal profits high in the light of the greenbacks plunge.
Bid prospects remain as a backdrop that must also be in the share price to some degree.


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## noirua (2 November 2008)

Steel Guru reported last week that a spokesman for Felix Resources said that a number of earlier proposals to acquire all of the company were still on the table, but were not finalized under its time frame due to uncertain financial markets, opening the door to expanded discussions.


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## pacestick (2 November 2008)

noirua said:


> Steel Guru reported last week that a spokesman for Felix Resources said that a number of earlier proposals to acquire all of the company were still on the table, but were not finalized under its time frame due to uncertain financial markets, opening the door to expanded discussions.



Hopefully at least part of the difficulty is felix holding out for a price that reflects pre slump and post slump value


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## noirua (3 November 2008)

Felix Resources have now recovered 60% at $12.45.
Report from Steel Guru that all the former bids remain on the  table and a few more bidders have since arrived has raised sentiment, together with improving markets.
The AGM and 1st quarterly report were if anything a slight negative factor, though MD Mr Brian Flannery's report was mildly encouraging on the Moolarben go-ahead in November and Yarrabee.


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## noirua (4 November 2008)

Felix Resources Company Presentation:  http://www.felixresources.com.au/si...081104_Felix _Resources_ AGM_Presentation.pdf

The recovery of Felix Resources to $13.42 may have more to do with the bid situation that seems to have revived. Companies cited as being interested, not confirmed by Felix Resources, are Anglo American, Rio Tinto, Peabody, BHP Billiton and Vale.

FLX's Quarterly showed coal sales below Merrill Lynch's target of 1.3 million tonnes at just under 1 million tonnes. Reasons that a changeover at the Ashton Longwall Mine and building up coal reserves at Yarrabee for the PCI washery. 
Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has said he has seen no signs of problems in the companies supply of PCI and semi-soft coking supplies.
Felix target is for 5mtpa against the 2008 4.6mtpa.

Other sources generally raise concerns about prices and demand for coking coals and PCI coal.


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## Reealjrd (4 November 2008)

Hello Friends,

Everybody here talking about Felix Resources what is it. Can any body explain me properly about it.


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## pacestick (5 November 2008)

Reealjrd said:


> Hello Friends,
> 
> Everybody here talking about Felix Resources what is it. Can any body explain me properly about it.



It is  a mining company with a number of prospects around the wotld but in particular  producing coal fields in  queensland and New South Wales. its prospects of further growth are good  which combined with  the high demand that was experienced in the last few years and is likely to return  in the future mke it an attractive takeover target


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## Sean K (5 November 2008)

Reealjrd said:


> Hello Friends,
> 
> Everybody here talking about Felix Resources what is it. Can any body explain me properly about it.



It's actually a company set up by some old cat who fought his way out of the alley and into corporate stardom. He found tremendous success considering he could not speak, but his downfall in the end was his lack of colour. 

Me explain properly.

Sounds like a great buy to me..


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## michael_selway (5 November 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources Company Presentation:  http://www.felixresources.com.au/si...081104_Felix _Resources_ AGM_Presentation.pdf
> 
> The recovery of Felix Resources to $13.42 may have more to do with the bid situation that seems to have revived. Companies cited as being interested, not confirmed by Felix Resources, are Anglo American, Rio Tinto, Peabody, BHP Billiton and Vale.
> 
> ...




Yeah not bad today . Hey Noirua it says they can reach 16mtpa by 2012, do you know how much they can get beyond 2012? Or is 16mtpa roughly the max rate?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 165.2 281.3 320.3 
DPS 17.0 83.0 138.0 156.1 *



> Date: 13/10/2008
> Author: Jamie Freed
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 21
> Australian coal miner Felix Resources will soon announce the outcome of itsauction. MD Brian Flannery said that the global companies involved in the salesprocess were under pressure but were still enthusiastic about the assets. Felixmay inform the market as early as 15 October 2008. Its share price has halvedduring the global credit crisis, so it is uncertain whether a takeover bid wouldbe accepted or the company would wait for an improvement in the market




thx

MS


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## noirua (5 November 2008)

Hi m_s, Providing there is sufficient demand the coal output of Felix Resources will be far above the 16mtpa forecast. 

Yarrabee (100% owned) will/should produce 2.8 mtpa by the end of 2009. There is an area north of Yarabbee called Wilpeena that is being drilled to firm up a resource. This may run alongside Yarabbee until 2016-20 producing a further 3mtpa. 

Ashton (55%) looks set to continue production until 2030 if the area continues to show increasing reserves, and coal mined should reach 2 - 2.5mtpa for Felix going forward.

Minerva (51%) produces 1.25mtpa for Felix and more interesting is the large coalfield at nearby Athena (560million tonnes inferred), presently being drilled. Production applicable to Felix could reach 5mtpa by 2016.

Moolarben (80%) is expected to reach production applicable to Felix of about 3.2mtpa during 2010.  The underground mine should add a further 6.4mtpa by around 2012.

Harry Brandt (100%) anthracite and high value thermal, will reach production around 2013.  No figures are presently estimated for this mine.

Phillipson (91.2%) has about 4 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal and possible Gold, copper and other minerals. Presently being drilled and explored.


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## noirua (9 November 2008)

Felix Resources - 2008 Annual General Meeting brought by boardroom radio (40 mins): http://www.brr.com.au/event/53484/f...vers-duncan-chairman-and-mr-brian-flannery-md


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## pacestick (9 November 2008)

After sitting through that broadcast  i can see why the board would hold out for a figure well above  current price


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## noirua (11 November 2008)

pacestick said:


> After sitting through that broadcast  i can see why the board would hold out for a figure well above current price



Yes, the present yield is 4.7% at $11.29 and despite Moolarben development costs and difficult markets in PCI coal and semi-soft coke, this should double over the next 3 years.
The reason for doubling dividends, despite lower coal prices, offset partly by the tanking Aussie v the greenback. Is the extra 3.2mtpa of thermal coal from Moolarben with the Korean Consortium, 10% shareholders, taking 2.8mtpa for the life of the mine.  
Yarrabee production becomes all PCI coal during 2009, and production up 0.9mtpa to 2.8mtpa.
The Moolarben underground mine will add a further 6.4mtpa by 2012, that's the FLX plan anyway.


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## noirua (15 November 2008)

"Felix flush with coking coal supply", http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24652933-5005200,00.html


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## noirua (18 November 2008)

Article that is one week old, and covers a number of companies in the coal and mining sector, "Expectations for Bulk Commodities Falling": http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/20081111/expectations-for-bulk-commodities-falling_all.htm


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## noirua (20 November 2008)

MCC have announced a slow down in the next 2 months on coal exports, and that has hit many companies in the coal sector. 
So far Felix have made no forward announcements after reporting their best month in October, recently.
The Minerva Mine (thermal coal in single ship loads) in QLD has coal exports from the RG Tanna Terminal, Gladstone Port,  of 64,760 tonnes with ship in berth and 75,000 tonnes with an ETA of 7th Dec. The Yarrabee mine (PCI coal, mixed at port) has just 34,000 tonnes with an ETA of 2nd Dec.


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## noirua (21 November 2008)

noirua said:


> MCC have announced a slow down in the next 2 months on coal exports, and that has hit many companies in the coal sector.
> So far Felix have made no forward announcements after reporting their best month in October, recently.
> The Minerva Mine (thermal coal in single ship loads) in QLD has coal exports from the RG Tanna Terminal, Gladstone Port,  of 64,760 tonnes with ship in berth and 75,000 tonnes with an ETA of 7th Dec. The Yarrabee mine (PCI coal, mixed at port) has just 34,000 tonnes with an ETA of 2nd Dec.



Felix have a further cargo of thermal coal, 85,000 tonnes single ship, with an ETA for 7th Dec.
Shipping of coal from the QLD Minerva mine seems to be going very well.  An absence of further coal leaving from Yarrabee is a concern as it is mainly PCI coal.


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## noirua (22 November 2008)

How badly will Felix Resources be hit and why. There are three fully operating mines in QLD and NSW that have no real problems, even if they fail to sell quite so much coal in the future. (aim for 5 million tonnes but this looks a very tough target now).
Yarrabee is opening a PCI coal wash to raise production to 2.7mtpa but the market is softening and it may have to be sold as thermal coal.
Minerva plugs away well selling thermal coal in single ship loads out of Gladstone. 
Ashton, NSW is selling mainly semi-soft coke and demand for this looks to have a question mark against it. They may have to switch back to more thermal. 

It may be about concern over Moolarben and the probable fact that the bid situation has moved from the fridge to the freezer.

Moolarben will cost Felix about $280 - $320 million (80%) to develop their part of the project. Everything is on order to develop the open-cut mine that should produce in late 2009/early 2010. No chance of reversing this.
The underground/longwall mine will be in production about two years afterwards.

Felix have $300 million in the bank at the end of the last quarter.


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## pacestick (22 November 2008)

noirua said:


> How badly will Felix Resources be hit and why. There are three fully operating mines in QLD and NSW that have no real problems, even if they fail to sell quite so much coal in the future. (aim for 5 million tonnes but this looks a very tough target now).
> Noirua  In your opinion  is it likely that despite the international  economic situation felix will continue to grow  be it at a slower  pace than if the crash had not ocurred. I tend to agree with you that a  lack of takeover  announcements has sent some speculative holders on their way


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## noirua (23 November 2008)

pacestick said:


> noirua said:
> 
> 
> > How badly will Felix Resources be hit and why. There are three fully operating mines in QLD and NSW that have no real problems, even if they fail to sell quite so much coal in the future. (aim for 5 million tonnes but this looks a very tough target now).
> ...


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## pacestick (25 November 2008)

Felix is a participant in the ncig project
#


	Port Waratah Seeks Approval for New Coal Harbor Access System
Po

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Port Waratah Coal Services, operator of the two coal-export terminals at Australia's Newcastle, lodged an application with the national competition regulator seeking approval for a new system to manage access to the port.

The application, made jointly with the Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group, is necessary ``to provide certainty for producers in 2009 and avoid long ship queues and crippling demurrage costs'' likely to arise once the existing quota system expires Dec. 31, Port Waratah said in an e-mailed statement.

Bottlenecks at Australian ports have helped constrain supplies of the fuel to Asian customers, contributing to record prices earlier this year and increasing costs for mining companies. Newcastle, the world's biggest coal-export harbor, has operated an export quota system since March 2004 as it seeks to reduce waiting times for ships. The systems require approval by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, or ACCC.

``The intention is for the short-term arrangement to be a stepping stone to a long-term'' model for allocating port capacity underpinned by contracts, Graham Davidson, general manager of Port Waratah, said in the statement released late yesterday. The application to the regulator assumes a permanent solution is agreed by mid-2009, he said.

Xstrata Plc, Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. are among mining companies that ship coal through Newcastle.

Newcastle Port is expected to export about 91.5 million metric tons of coal this year, up 8 percent on last year, Port Waratah said. That compares with export capacity of 102 million tons at the two terminals, which is due to reach 113 million tons next year through a A$500 million ($319 million) expansion.

Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group, which is building a new coal-export terminal at the New South Wales port, is owned by BHP Billiton, Centennial Coal Co., Donaldson Coal and other mining companies.


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## noirua (25 November 2008)

Felix Resources Ltd:  The view of Analysts.
http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU:FLX


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## Real1ty (25 November 2008)

I only caught a part of it but a broker from BBY had a buy on FLZ with a 12 month price of $18+

Like i said i didn't catch it all so i'm not sure what they were basing that on...


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## noirua (30 November 2008)

Moolarben Project progress:  http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/26/2430306.htm?site=centralwest


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## noirua (5 December 2008)

Felix Resources stock trade at $7.75 up $2.31 in heavy trading, after reaching $10.48 early on. This followed an article in the Business Spectator today that suggested that Yanzhou of China may bid $3 billion for the company.


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## Sean K (5 December 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources stock trade at $7.75 up $2.31 in heavy trading, after reaching $10.48 early on. This followed an article in the Business Spectator today that suggested that Yanzhou of China may bid $3 billion for the company.



And they say they are in discussions or something.

Surely they should go into a trading halt.



Could be a nice short term gamble if there are some real discussions going on.

Now,

Black or red?

Hmmmm


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## noirua (5 December 2008)

kennas said:


> And they say they are in discussions or something.
> 
> Surely they should go into a trading halt.
> 
> ...



hmmmm is the answer Kennas as this situation has been going on for over 4 months. BHP Billiton became favourite after Xstrata, Rio Tinto and Vale fell on difficult times. 
This Chinese company Yanzhou is a new speculation just because they were reported to have been shown round the Felix Ashton mines (60%) in the Hunter.


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## Sean K (5 December 2008)

noirua said:


> hmmmm is the answer Kennas as this situation has been going on for over 4 months. BHP Billiton became favourite after Xstrata, Rio Tinto and Vale fell on difficult times.
> This Chinese company Yanzhou is a new speculation just because they were reported to have been shown round the Felix Ashton mines (60%) in the Hunter.



I'm holding onto my call that we are seeing a significant correction and readjustment in world finances and Chindia has only just began to develop. They have another 10-20 years to industrialise and get off the rice. It might take us 2-7 years to consolidate and shake off the dead wood, but when we do, maybe there will be an even greater resource boom? I'm happy to be watching this and have a little pot of gold to be ready for the next charge of the bull.

Or, my cash is earning 1% for a while.


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## pacestick (5 December 2008)

i dont think this one is going to get any further than the rest the sheer impossibility of giving the board a price that they would like rummoured to be above $20. while  explaining to to your own shareholders that you paid a premium far above the market price presents a real challenge. The board control about 30% of the shares  and are probably inm no hurryu to sell or else we would have had a deal by now


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## noirua (6 December 2008)

The shares of Yanzhou Coal, China's third largest coal company, have been suspended. This appears to have been following the initiation of a rumour that they may bid for Felix Resources. It is not known as to whether this was following an application by the company.


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## noirua (6 December 2008)

Felix Resources (FLX) will be added to the Dow Jones Global Select 100 index at the start of trading on 22nd Dec 2008.


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## noirua (7 December 2008)

noirua said:


> The shares of Yanzhou Coal, China's third largest coal company, have been suspended. This appears to have been following the initiation of a rumour that they may bid for Felix Resources. It is not known as to whether this was following an application by the company.



Yanzhou applied to the Hong Kong and NYSE markets for their shares to be suspended. The shares of Yanzhou have plunged 77% since May and their Market Capitalization stands at around AU$4 billion against Felix at AU$1.5 billion. As of Friday 5th December 08.


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## justiceotp (8 December 2008)

This stock has performed well again today mind you so has most of the market, any fresh news on potential chinese takeover moves?


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## noirua (9 December 2008)

justiceotp said:


> This stock has performed well again today mind you so has most of the market, any fresh news on potential chinese takeover moves?



Hi justiceotp et al, My knowledge of Chinese companies is desperately poor. I realise now that Yanzhou has a parent company, YanKuang Group Company  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankuang_Group .  It's all these A and H shares that confuse the issue. 
Will check further, though the English translations are not that good.


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## michael_selway (10 December 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi justiceotp et al, My knowledge of Chinese companies is desperately poor. I realise now that Yanzhou has a parent company, YanKuang Group Company  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankuang_Group .  It's all these A and H shares that confuse the issue.
> Will check further, though the English translations are not that good.




Yeah FLX not bad today

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 191.2 253.8 290.7 
DPS 53.0 100.0 107.8 145.0* 



> Date: 9/12/2008
> Author: Ayesha de Kretser
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19
> The falling price of coal has prompted Merrill Lynch to downgrade itsrecommendation on Gloucester Coal and Macarthur Coal. However, the firm stillrates Felix Resources as a stock to buy. Meanwhile, UBS has changed its ratingon Felix to "buy", in the wake of China-based Yanzhou CoalMining's interest in the coal producer
> ...

















> Quote from another site
> 
> For the number savy folks out there, here's a summary of figures released recently by FLX & some calcs.
> 
> ...



thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (10 December 2008)

Some more charts from another site



> FLX have a 1.3bT JORC resource, see breakdown below
> 
> Measured: 428.5mt
> Indicated: 259.2mt
> ...






> "HONG KONG, Dec 08, 2008 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (YZC:yanzhou coal mng co ltd spon adr h shs
> News, chart, profile, more
> Last: 6.46+1.09+20.30%
> 
> ...




http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yzc

*As per the AFR yesterday, Coking coal comprises 57% of Felix's earnings, 77% of MCC's & 35% for Gloucester. Analysts are using thermal coal prices of US$75/t & coking coal $US125/t.*

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200812090141DOWJONESDJONLINE000063.htm



> Agree Mooralben looks promising out of the 4 producing mines. See breakdown below
> 
> Mine/ Type/ Reserves(MT)/ Resources(MT)/ Sale(MTPA)
> Moolarben/ Thermal/ 356.8/ 706.4/ 12.4
> ...




This is not quite what you want but because I have it you may as well see it. It is just the MC/tonnage.

Here is another chart showing the MC/Tonnage but this time divided up into resource. 

Thx

MS


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## noirua (10 December 2008)

Felix closed at $9.17 up 90% on the years low of $4.80, a few weeks ago.

Thanks for all the information m_s. Some from certain posters is misleading or out of date, as anyone investing may care to know.

The stated 5.3 million tonnes for the year ending 30/6/2009 will be difficult to achieve as the first quarter was down at 960 million tonnes. Sales for the Yarrabee mine are also a bit disappointing and semi-soft coking coal out of the Ashton mines are unlikely to reach expected levels due to port restrictions at Newcastle.

The profits last year were boosted by sales of 20% of the Moolarben Project and no sales are expected for the current year. 

Figures of 16.7 million tonnes in year ending 30/6/2012 are now extremely unlikely. Production at Moolarben is well behind schedule and will only start in early 2010 with no hitches. The underground mine, if it goes ahead on schedule, will be in production now in 2012.

The comment on coking coal is highly misleading as it is only produced from the Ashton mine in the Hunter. Highest production for Felix who own 60% of the mine will be 2.3 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). 
All coal at Yarrabee will be PCI coal and may reach 3.8mtpa by year ending 30/6/2010.
All coal at the Minerva mine, Felix have 51%, is all thermal coal and Felix interest about 1.3 mtpa.
All the Moolarben coal is thermal coal and about 40% of the open-cut mine is lower grade power station coal for the new power station in the Hunter. Maximum production for Felix by 2014 is 10 mtpa but more likely at 9 mtpa.

Felix may later add mines at Harry Brandt, Wilpeena and Athena. These mines may replace rundown at Yarrabee and Minerva around 2016 onwards. The former Harry Brandt will be a new Anthracite mine. 

Felix are exploring the Phillipson deposit in South Australia with a new office in Adelaide.  This possible diesel from coal project is probably for 2016 or very much later.


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## noirua (11 December 2008)

noirua said:


> Felix closed at $9.17 up 90% on the years low of $4.80, a few weeks ago.
> 
> Thanks for all the information m_s. Some from certain posters is misleading or out of date, as anyone investing may care to know.
> 
> ...




Yarrabee coal production corrected from 3.8mtpa to 2.8mtpa, and maximum from Moolarben at 10 to 10.4mtpa.


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## noirua (15 December 2008)

Much talk everywhere about a bid for Felix Resources. Strangely the possible bidders have themselves been hit by the crumbling coal and iron ore sector and surviving is now the order of the day.

Felix will give their Second Quarterly report on 30th January 09 and Half Yearly on 18th February 09. These reports should still make good reading as only spot prices will have been hit and only 30% of currency is hedged. 

The interim dividend was 3 cents in 2008 at halfway and that should be well beaten.
Profits will be the interesting point and whether sales of semi-soft coke and PCI coal have held up.


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## pacestick (15 December 2008)

Has anyone heard of the latest play on the ucc project .Its significance was downplayed at the AGM by the MD I had an idea that a shipment had been sent to Japan for evaluation but I cant find any reference to it


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## noirua (16 December 2008)

noirua said:


> Much talk everywhere about a bid for Felix Resources. Strangely the possible bidders have themselves been hit by the crumbling coal and iron ore sector and surviving is now the order of the day.
> 
> Felix will give their Second Quarterly report on 30th January 09 and Half Yearly on 18th February 09. These reports should still make good reading as only spot prices will have been hit and only 30% of currency is hedged.
> 
> ...




Following the somewhat sudden turnaround by Macarthur Coal today and confirmation of postponed shipments, we should take a quick look at Felix again.

Felix have not forecast profits for the half year to December 31st or the full year. So analysts have been left to guess, or is it estimate. Their previous average estimate was EBIT$412 million for the full year.

Macarthur export mainly PCI coal, and Felix only PCI coal from its 100% owned Yarrabee mine, and shipping appears to be well down on expectations.

Shipping from the Minerva mine have been surprisingly good and about 20% up on expected levels. This is a thermal coalmine with single shiploads.

The Ashton mine exports of semi-soft coking coal in October, November and December are not known. But MAY have been affected by the downturn.

Development of the new mines at Moolarben continue with infrastructure being built.

Coal sales in the first quarter were down at 986,000 tonnes due to Yarrabee stocking for the new wash plant, and holdups at Ashton. Will be interesting to see the second quarter results.


----------



## noirua (19 December 2008)

The FLX share price still continues to be a puzzle. Are there bids on the table now or just interested companies waiting for the sector to tumble further?
Felix have said they are not cutting coal production. Well, they seem to be getting loads of coal out of Gladstone from the Minerva mine and appear about 30% ahead of forecasts, up until 31st December 08, however, Yarrabee PCI coal shippings appear to have slipped and news from the semi-soft coking coal mines at Ashton in the Hunter, are awaited.


----------



## noirua (24 December 2008)

FLX continue to plug away at shipping thermal coal from their QLD coal mine at Minerva (51%). January shipping out of the RG Tanna Terminal, Gladstone Port, is 125,000 tonnes eta 20/1/09 and 63,000 tonnes eta 23/1/09.


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## pacestick (10 January 2009)

Recently had to cross koorangang island where the ncig is being built  felix a partner. There seems to be a lot of work already commenced . Although I have some difficulty with the site itself as the larger bulk carriers can not completley fill here even with dredging.  I dont know why  they didnt follow the example of point hay in queensland or cape lambert iron ore  W.A.   and build a long wharf out to sea  maybe the continental shelf is to shallow here


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## noirua (14 January 2009)

pacestick said:


> Recently had to cross koorangang island where the ncig is being built  felix a partner. There seems to be a lot of work already commenced . Although I have some difficulty with the site itself as the larger bulk carriers can not completley fill here even with dredging.  I dont know why  they didnt follow the example of point hay in queensland or cape lambert iron ore  W.A.   and build a long wharf out to sea  maybe the continental shelf is to shallow here



Thanks for the info. As to dredging depths and long wharfs out to sea, you may be one of the very few to notice this.

The Koorangang Island terminal looks as if it's going to be available just at the time coal sales drop away sharply.  Though some might say that it's mainly thermal to semi-soft coke being shipped and not much semi-hard to hard coke, and therefore will not be as bad as all that.

Felix have up to 10 million tonnes of thermal per year out of the new Moolarben mine to sell.  About 4 mtpa from 2010. Fortunately this low cost mine will do well if thermal falls to US$70 (AU$104) per tonne.  Mining cost per tonne was given at AU$30 per tonne in 2004/5. (Info cited from the amalgamation document at the time of the Felix Resources merger with White Mining.)


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## noirua (15 January 2009)

Tough times ahead in the coal sector. Will be interesting to see if Felix are blown off course at all.

Need to spend Aussie (about) $320 million over the next 3 years in developing their 80% share of the Moolarben Project. Hopefully the cost will be a bit lower in the present low steel price climate.

Reported to have $300 million in the bank up until end Sept 2008. Spending on Moolarben started apace last December, just as coal prices and the credit crunch had started to bite hard. 

The stock price is holding just above $8.00 with some takeover possibilities probably still in the share price. 

Felix Resources may still be considering bids in this climate as the low cost Moolarben open-cut and underground mines - due to produce up to 13mtpa of low cost thermal coal - may still be of interest.


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## noirua (16 January 2009)

Felix Resources executive director Hans Mende has bought 158,927 shares in Felix resources. ( 62,949 at $8.5751 average and 95,978 at $8.6216 average). 
He is a 50% owner of AMCI, a private American coal company, that holds a 19.2% stake in FLX.

Felix MD Mr Brian Flannery had said, that all the major holders would stand firm together in the face of bids for the company and would act together.
Since the credit crunch arrived that situation may have added pressure on some holders.


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## pacestick (16 January 2009)

What I find interesting is that it was an  on market purchase not an off market purchase from a fellow director. The next week or two  should show if there are implications  for other shareholders


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## noirua (16 January 2009)

I wish I was as confident as your post information Nick Radge.  Oil is still under pressure and markets look stressed out.
Still, strange things have happened and bidders for FLX may be hoping the FLX share price moves up.  This may seem odd but they are in a catch 22 situation: They can't bid more than double the present price to get the FLX directors to agree an offer, as their own shareholders may object.


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## noirua (27 January 2009)

Felix Resources second quarterly report is out on Thursday.

Shareholders will be more interested in any statement concerning Felix going over to selling more thermal coal instead of PCI coal and semi-soft coke. 

Since the announcement by MD, Mr Brian Flannery, that October was the best month ever, it seems as if there was a big decline in November and December, that has worsened in January and February on the PCI coal and semi-soft coke front.

Only 18,700 tonnes of Yarrabee PCI coal was shipped in January, showing a marked decline. Minerva mine taking up some of the slack with a big increase in sales during that month.
It should be pointed out that thermal coal profits are very much less than PCI coal.  Or at least they were up to October.

Felix Resources will have gained something from the plunging AUD and that figure may not be known until the half yearly report that is out at the end of February.
Currency agreements generally run for 6 month periods and how Felix's run has not been announced.


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## noirua (29 January 2009)

Felix Resources 2nd Quarter Report:  http://www.felixresources.com.au/si...5_20090129_December_2008_Quarterly_Report.pdf

Basics of report: Net profit for first half forecast at $160 - $170 million ($228 - $242 million EBIT).  One off $59 million gain, not included in forecast that covers closing out of coal swaps.

Cash held of $300+ million with $37 million debt.

Company is moving, since December, to selling more thermal coal from the Minerva mine to make up for a drop in PCI coal sales from Yarrabee. Sales of some semi-soft coke from the Ashton mine is expected now to be replaced by sales of thermal coal.

Felix have put back the expansion of the Yarrabee mine from 1.9mtpa to 2.8mtpa until markets improve.

Felix are continuing with work on the Moolarben open-cut mine, due to produce in 2010. 2.8mtpa of thermal coal has been sold in forward contracts for the life of the mine at market prices then prevailing.

Felix are to drill the Phillipson permits in South Australia where gravity anomalies have been shown in three places.


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## noirua (2 February 2009)

Felix Resources are moving up today against the general trend in the market and probably a slow reaction to the excellent second quarter results.

Should move on a bit more this week as the takeover factor appears to be removed from the stock. Felix may well have a good chance of achieving the analysts average forecast of just over EBIT$400 million for YE 30th June 2009.

The maintenance of the 2008 53 cent dividend depends on the Directors confidence in having enough cash to fund the 80% of the Moolarben Project, that's 80% owned by Felix.


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## michael_selway (2 February 2009)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources are moving up today against the general trend in the market and probably a slow reaction to the excellent second quarter results.
> 
> Should move on a bit more this week as the takeover factor appears to be removed from the stock. Felix may well have a good chance of achieving the analysts average forecast of just over EBIT$400 million for YE 30th June 2009.
> 
> The maintenance of the 2008 53 cent dividend depends on the Directors confidence in having enough cash to fund the 80% of the Moolarben Project, that's 80% owned by Felix.




Yeah that takeover is still a mystery, wished they woudl at least give a hint on who the parties were! I sold this one at $16.50, but have bought back in at much lower prices 

Their very low debt really makes them so attractive for anyone to takeover

Thanks

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 174.9 122.7 125.2 
DPS 53.0 57.3 20.8 41.3 *









> Date: 30/1/2009
> Author: Luke Forrestal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 48
> Shares in coal miner, Felix Resources, closed $A0.29 higher on 29 January 2009,at $A6.90. The rise came as the company issued an ultimatum to suitors led byYanzhou Coal Mining. Although a deadline has not been given, Felix directorshave warned the suitors they need to make a decision on whether they willformally bid for the Australian company. Felix produced an estimated 1.14million tonnes of coal in the December 2008 quarter


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## noirua (3 February 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Yeah that takeover is still a mystery, wished they would at least give a hint on who the parties were! I sold this one at $16.50, but have bought back in at much lower prices
> 
> Their very low debt really makes them so attractive for anyone to takeover
> 
> ...



Price continues up this morning.  It does surprise me how the stock stays so low when profits continue along merrily. 
There was much talk about an offer around $12 per share - pure speculation - and an older one around $20.  I think we can rule these out as games being played.

There appears no way a company could make an offer to satisfy the major holders with 69% of the stock.  After all,  the bidders, except BHP, have seen their shares tank worse than Felix Resources.
Which company could possibly make an outrageously high bid without their shareholders grumbling in today's markets? They need their support.  I suppose only a private company or a Chinese company with their governments backing could bid - highly unlikely in my view.


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## mitch87 (3 February 2009)

great company with great assests, regardless of a takeover the price increase is warranted, however the speculators may be back, i can only see yanzhou making the bid with gov backing, and with 2-3b in cash, although s.h support is highly unlikely.


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## noirua (3 February 2009)

mitch87 said:


> great company with great assests, regardless of a takeover the price increase is warranted, however the speculators may be back, i can only see yanzhou making the bid with gov backing, and with 2-3b in cash, although s.h support is highly unlikely.



Yes, it could just be speculators moving in today as I can't see any very large bids.  Some UK investors seem to be more interested again now as the stock has fallen so much.
Probably todays ASX announcement stirred up interest:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090203/pdf/31fw5fv13fxn0z.pdf


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## noirua (5 February 2009)

Felix Resources stock remains stable after the rise following the 2nd Quarter report.  

Felix will continue their expansion and increase the number of staff employed by going ahead and building their (80% owned) Moolarben open cut mines and underground mines (near Mudgee, NSW), costing about $350 million ( the mine will be completed mostly through cash reserves, currently over $300 million, and from future profits). 

The mine will be low cost when running at full capacity and would be highly profitable at current prices for thermal coal, reports MD, Mr Brian Flannery.

The mine is set for completion by the early part of 2010 at the latest and should be ready to ship coal out of NCIG's new port at Newcastle when it is ready in March 2010.


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## noirua (8 February 2009)

Felix Resources after managing an estimated net $160 - $170 million in the first half year may be continuing strongly enough to retain their 53 cent dividend for 2009.  This and continuing to finance their share, 80%, of the $450m Moolarben Project.

It will be 2011 before substantial profits pile in from the Moolarben mine.  So Felix may well see gross profits beat analysts average of $412m for 2009 and a fall back in 2010.
Providing everything goes well at Moolarben and coal prices stay steady from here, profits should bounce strongly in 2011.

There are risks, low in the financing of Moolarben with $300m in the bank. But everything depends on the world's economies, coal prices, demand and the strength of the Aussie$.


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## noirua (12 February 2009)

Felix Resources are due to announce a decision on the talks about another party taking a controlling stake in felix Resources.
The Moolarben Project will start producing thermal coal at the end of '09 and this low cost thermal coal production may well put pressure on the price of thermal coal once NCIGs new terminal at Newcastle Port is ready in early 2010.
Felix stock price continues to flounder between $8 - $9 against a high of $23.30. Indicating few think talks will have any other outcome than 'talks will be discontinued due to market conditions'.


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## noirua (20 February 2009)

Update on Felix Resources 80% owned Moolarben Project.
http://mudgee.yourguide.com.au/news/local/news/general/moolarben-ready-to-go/1438787.aspx


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## noirua (27 February 2009)

Felix Resources Half Year Report to 31st December 2008.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090227/pdf/31g9v84sx3tdb6.pdf

Half Year EBIT $224.6 million, ($166.1 million after tax).

Half Year Dividend is a same again 3c plus a special 20c dividend, both are fully franked - payable 31st march 2009.

Cash reserves are at $283.4m.  Dividend will cost $45.2m and tax at $58.5m.


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## zaz (27 February 2009)

Other notable items:

Change of control discussions are ongoing but unlikely to lead to anything in the current environment
Impairment testing has shown that the recoverable amount of operating assets is significantly higher than the carrying value (i.e. no impairment)
Made a profit of 60.4M on coal swaps which are EXCLUDED from current earnings. They will be shown over 2009.
Paid down 57.3M in debt, spent 34.2M on property, plant and equipment, Paid tax of 58.5M, still have $283.4M in the bank!
Earnings reflect substantial foreign exchange hedges at much higher levels than that AUD is trading (around .94). Once these are worked off, by April 2009, they will receive the full benefit from the AUD plunge. 

Average contracted thermal coal prices last year were around $125USD. That is equivalent to $83 this year given the movement in the AUD. If they settle at $78, that is only a 5% loss in revenue and that is before the impact of the coal swaps.


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## noirua (28 February 2009)

Thermal coal out of the Newcastle Port is trading at US$65.32 per tonne, or AU$101 per tonne. This is spot for 3 months delivery and it came close to US$60 during trading on Thursday.
The fact that Felix, like MCC and GCL, are moving towards thermal coal sales at these lower prices is worrying for Year Ending 2010. Moolarben coal sold in the period March to June 2010 will still be in the early start up high cost phase.


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## pacestick (28 February 2009)

Lokks like  felix increased  profit by about 220% Af act not noted by the media who  have raved on about wow increasing profit 10%. I am still of the opinion that this company will  get through the downturn better than most other coal companies and have increased my shareholding on that belief


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## noirua (3 March 2009)

pacestick said:


> Looks like  felix increased profit by about 220% An act not noted by the media who  have raved on about wow increasing profit 10%. I am still of the opinion that this company will  get through the downturn better than most other coal companies and have increased my shareholding on that belief



I have the same view on Felix getting through this Worldwide deep recession comfortably. Coal profits may well halve per tonne for Felix in Year Ending June 2010 but Moolarben sales will help a bit, and profits should recover to Y/E 2009 levels in Y/E 2011, as output from Moolarben becomes very profitable.  The odds, imho, are reasonable for the 53c dividend (excluding 20c special dividend) being maintained in the next few years.


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## noirua (7 March 2009)

Felix Resources are studying possible purchases or involvement in Indonesian and Indian interests.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aRzVyQiAPTN0&refer=australia


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## zaz (7 March 2009)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources are studying possible purchases or involvement in Indonesian and Indian interests.
> QUOTE]
> 
> I like Felix precisely because they are based in Australia. Country risk premiums for India and Indonesia are an enormous 11% and 13% respectively! Never mind that Indonesia has been nationalizing resource projects.
> ...


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## noirua (9 March 2009)

I think MD Brian Flannery is really out to grow Felix Resources into a major coal concern. If someone wants to pay over the odds for the company or for a stake in a mine, then he's in for that as well.
The companies Board of Directors are one of the very few around who seem to have all assets laid out on their stalls for offers.  Expect surprises from Felix in these depressed markets with $340 million cash in the bank.


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## zaz (11 March 2009)

noirua said:


> Thermal coal out of the Newcastle Port is trading at US$65.32 per tonne, or AU$101 per tonne. This is spot for 3 months delivery and it came close to US$60 during trading on Thursday.
> The fact that Felix, like MCC and GCL, are moving towards thermal coal sales at these lower prices is worrying for Year Ending 2010. Moolarben coal sold in the period March to June 2010 will still be in the early start up high cost phase.




Chubu, Japan's third-largest utility by capacity, and Xstrata have agreed on a price of $US70-$US72 a tonne for thermal coal under a contract for the next fiscal year, two persons close to the deal said Wednesday. 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25171188-643,00.html

This is reasonably bullish for Felix.


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## noirua (11 March 2009)

zaz said:


> Chubu, Japan's third-largest utility by capacity, and Xstrata have agreed on a price of $US70-$US72 a tonne for thermal coal under a contract for the next fiscal year, two persons close to the deal said Wednesday.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25171188-643,00.html
> 
> This is reasonably bullish for Felix.



The US$70 - US$72 price range appears to have been set for thermal coal at 6,322K/cal/kg.
Felix coal from the Minerva mine is 6,700K/cal/kg, Ashton mine thermal at 7,100K/cal/kg and semi-soft coke at 7,250K/cal/kg, Yarrabee PCI at 7,300K/cal/kg, and Moolarben export thermal at 6,900K/cal/kg (5,750K/cal/kg for domestic thermal).
(Prices set for Felix thermal at Minerva is usually 6% above benchmark, and Moolarben about 10% above from 2010 when mine sells coal.)

Problem for Felix, the reason the share price is down 70% (high $23.30), is that PCI and semi-soft coke agreements are set to severely plunge in price. Semi-soft coke was set at US$240 per tonne and new agreements look like being set at around US$92 - US$96 per tonne (hard coking coal at US$120 per tonne against US$300 per tonne). PCI coal set at about US$180 per tonne down to around US$80 - US$85 per tonne.


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## zaz (11 March 2009)

Yanzhou may be willing to offer only A$10 to A$12 per share, valuing Felix at up to A$2.35 billion, one of the people said. Felix may want at least A$15 per share, said the other person. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aJLNxQwFYtk8&refer=australia

http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINPEK1350620090311?sp=true


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## pacestick (12 March 2009)

Thanks for the article  on takeover  which recent statement from company all but ruled out, most interested to know whether MD of felix is in Indonesia or India


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## michael_selway (12 March 2009)

zaz said:


> Yanzhou may be willing to offer only A$10 to A$12 per share, valuing Felix at up to A$2.35 billion, one of the people said. Felix may want at least A$15 per share, said the other person.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aJLNxQwFYtk8&refer=australia
> 
> http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINPEK1350620090311?sp=true




Hey this looks good thanks

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 140.7 50.7 118.2 
DPS 53.0 63.3 22.0 50.7* 







thx

MS




> Yanzhou Coal Talks With Felix Resources Said to Stall on Price
> Share | Email | Print | A A A
> 
> By Cathy Chan
> ...


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## noirua (13 March 2009)

I can't see Yanzhou Coal bidding enough to take out Felix Resources with capital gains tax a big factor for all of the major stockholders.

None of the so called interested companies in Felix have dared to bid and make the first mark in the sand. All can see that BHP Billiton stock remains the best performance in the mining sector and they could takeout Felix, without tax problems, quite easily.

The main interest is in the low cost Moolarben mine that expects to make sales from March 2010 and should build up to 13mtpa, attributable to Felix, by 2012.
An outside chance that Felix could relinquish a chunk of Moolarben, even up to 51% to the likes of BHP Billiton.

Felix have problems with its 100% owned Yarrabee Mine in Queensland, and badly needs a partner who will take a lot of PCI coal. The new wash plant is ready, so the company could produce 2.9mtpa of PCI coal from June 2009.
Unfortunately plans to increase production from 1.8mtpa have had to be shelved because of weak markets and the figure is also in doubt.
Wilpeena (North Yarrabee) is a new PCI coal area that is being explored and drilled and should add even more production.
A good opportunity for a new partner to take a cheap 49% stake providing they take most of the 2.9mtpa of PCI coal at market prices.


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## gfresh (13 March 2009)

I am curious as to why the shareprice of Felix has been "kept in range" in the last week.. seems unusual compared to it's regular price action and as the rest of the market has been fairly strong. Just reminds me of the action on GCL for 2 weeks before the merger announcement.. May be nothing.


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## noirua (13 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> I am curious as to why the shareprice of Felix has been "kept in range" in the last week.. seems unusual compared to it's regular price action and as the rest of the market has been fairly strong. Just reminds me of the action on GCL for 2 weeks before the merger announcement.. May be nothing.



A good point gfresh as the market quite obviously does not think a takeover is at all likely. Only AMCI could possibly bid for Felix among the companies major holders and as they are a private American company, with coal crash problems in the States, a bid looks totally out of the question.

Chinese companies would have to overcome Aussie Government objections in bidding for Felix and NSW would not be pleased to see a Chinese company own 80% of the major Moolarben Project, imho.

Felix Resources look cheap at $7.38 if coal prices recover, but are they cheap at $15.00.

I would not be surprised to see a Felix Resources major holder break ranks and sell their holding at some stage. This move may come sooner than we think.


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## Quillan (20 March 2009)

*Hi Natasha,
Why must I go to Aussie Stock Forums to find out what is going on?
Brian Flannery apparently has made several public remarks in the past month or so. None reported on the website.
Several News Items by Agencies have appeared referring to the position concerning interested parties, and also possible investments in India or Indonesia. Two potentially disastrous moves in my opinion.
If Flannery reckons a fair exit price is above $15, then he should be announcing a Buy Back of shares, if money is burning a hole on the Company coffers.
What could be a better investment?
Here's a testing question. If the Company saw a Felix miner for sale at $8 per share with all the credentials of our company, and the money was available to purchase out of funds held, would the Board bid $8?
If the answer is "Yes", it must announce a Buy Back, in my opinion.
It is said that a deal has been done to contract thermal coal recently, at $70-$72 a tonne.
This is of material interest to shareholders. We shouldn't have to dig it out from obscure sources.
Living in Europe it is very difficult to find these news items.
How about a News Section on the website which prints every piece of 3rd Party comment on matters relating to Felix? Tittle-Tattle some of it maybe, but all of interest to shareholders.
Shareholders would submit items, because you have a very astute, alive bunch of dedicated supporters."Niorua" for instance, is outstanding in his /her knowledge of the market. Well he could be a Sheila !!
I am posting this on Aussie Stock Forums for comment. I hope you keep a close eye on this excellent Forum, because it tells us more than the Company does, in respect of other opinions, and News Agency comments.
Best wishes to your excellent Team.
Don't sell us SHORT.
John

*


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## michael_selway (20 March 2009)

Quillan said:


> *Hi Natasha,
> Why must I go to Aussie Stock Forums to find out what is going on?
> Brian Flannery apparently has made several public remarks in the past month or so. None reported on the website.
> Several News Items by Agencies have appeared referring to the position concerning interested parties, and also possible investments in India or Indonesia. Two potentially disastrous moves in my opinion.
> ...




Its hard in this market for anythign to take off unless its an official takeover

Nevertheless, nice mini rally etc







*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 141.4 51.0 99.7 
DPS 53.0 63.3 23.0 47.9 *


thx

MS


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## zaz (20 March 2009)

Citigroup said today that BHP, the world’s largest supplier of seaborne coking coal, has agreed to sell coking coal at $US115-$US125 a tonne to Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. 

“Prices are above market expectations, even for metallurgical coal bulls. A good outcome for producers in a clearly bear steel market,” Merrill Lynch said in a note. 

South Korean steelmaker Posco confirmed it has settled pulverised coal injection prices at $US90 a tonne with Australian suppliers, down 63 per cent on year. 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25215587-643,00.html

Assuming these prices (72USD for thermal/ $90 for coking) persist, AUD at .68 and no premium for Moolarben coal then my model shows felix worth $17.50. All the same with $8 premium for Moolarben is $20.


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## noirua (23 March 2009)

There are some of us wondering if Felix Resources is one of those companies, mentioned by Straits Resources, who is interested in purchasing the Jembayan and Sebuku coal mines - owned by Straits Res subsidiary Asia Resources- in Indonesia.

MD of Felix, Mr Brian Flannery, said the company was interested in purchasing Indian and Indonesian mines.

The shares of Straits Resources were put in trading halt this morning.


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## noirua (25 March 2009)

Felix stock price has moved up from a low of $4.82 to close today at $8.91. This looks very good, unless you know the high in 2008 was $23.30.

With thermal coal prices set for around US$70.00 a tonne against US$125 last time; PCI coal at around US$90 per tonne against US$210 last time ; and semi-soft coke at around US$105 a tonne against US$240 last time, we can see that the profits at Felix will plunge in the year ending June 30th 2010.

The above is offset by the currency exchange rate movement from AU$1.07 to AU$1.45 to the US$1. But that difference will not be enough.


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## noirua (26 March 2009)

noirua said:


> Felix stock price has moved up from a low of $4.82 to close today at $8.91. This looks very good, unless you know the high in 2008 was $23.30.
> 
> With thermal coal prices set for around US$70.00 a tonne against US$125 last time; PCI coal at around US$90 per tonne against US$210 last time ; and semi-soft coke at around US$105 a tonne against US$240 last time, we can see that the profits at Felix will plunge in the year ending June 30th 2010.
> 
> The above is offset by the currency exchange rate movement from AU$1.07 to AU$1.45 to the US$1. But that difference will not be enough.



Despite the above, there continues to be confidence that Felix Resources will be able to pay dividends.  The interim dividend rose from 3c to 23c, though this includes a special 20c dividend because of excellent profits in the first half year to 31st Dec 2008.

If the 50c final dividend is paid it will make 73c for the year ending 30th June 2009. At $8.91 it would puts Felix on a yield of 8.2% fully franked. The dividend would cost about $143 million. Profits after tax was $161 million in the first half + $60 million gross in coal swap gains.

The second half year will be more difficult, as semi-soft coal sales and particularly PCI coal sales will be difficult, despite thermal coal sales from the Minerva mine coming in far higher on sales than expected. The third quarter will be helped by higher prices for coal until 31/3/2009.  After this prices fall away steeply. 
Felix are selling some PCI coal into the spot market at quite low prices.

Despite all this, sales should reach around 4.2 million tonnes  and gross profits should be well over $400 million, including the $60 million in coal swaps. Net profits of at least $290 million, allowing for green tax reduction, will mean payment of the years dividends at $143 million will easily be covered.


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## pacestick (28 March 2009)

The rise in flx seems to be out of  proportion to that in other coal companies. I dont have time to check against all companies but it certainly has gained faster than cey  mcc glc or whc I dont really know why


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## pacestick (29 March 2009)

Felix Resources has asked the NSW government for permission to develop a new open cut  mine near Singleton and increase production from its nearby underground mine. The new mine would produce 3.6 mta and the company wants to increase its underground production from the nearby mine to 5mta


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## Holy Roly (30 March 2009)

I never have been too interested in coal miners. Perhaps its because they have too many pits (pun not really intended, but could not be ignored). However, I tend to go for gold, which is just as bad. Felix, however, has still some upside potential if all goes well. Maybe I will actually watch them to try and get over my negative feeling for coal miners.

Note: also trying to get to 10 posts, I want in for April comp!


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## noirua (2 April 2009)

Mines in QLD are now selling PCI coal on to the spot market and this is putting downward pressure on thermal coal. Customers in Japan and South Korea are keener to take better quality PCI at close to thermal coal prices.

Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has said, "the company is now selling PCI coal into the spot market".

A number of ships are now leaving, or due to leave, the RG Tanna terminal, Gladstone Port, QLD, loaded with non-specific PCI coal listed as "Queensland PCI coal".


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## noirua (14 April 2009)

Felix Resources are rallying strongly in a buoyant coal sector and have bounced up to $11.70, up 73c yesterday, from the years low of $4.80.
Much of the increase is said to be on yield considerations and the MD's assurance of a 50c final dividend this year, and his confidence on the progress of Moolarben: Which is set to ship coal from the new Wiggins coal terminal in March 2010, with coal sold forward to partners in the open-cut mine, at market prices, for the next 25 years.


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## Quillan (15 April 2009)

Pacestick says Felix has asked the NSW Government or permission to open a new mine to produce 3.6.tpa, or about 75% increase in today's production.
Noirua reports the MD as confirming the 50c Final Dividend and expressing confidence in the developnment of Moolarben.
I am outraged as a shareholder that none of these details appears on the website, nor are they sent out to shareholders on the mailing list. This is shabby treatment. Twice I have mentioned this let-down to the Company. They don't bother to reply.
See also my earlier post on 2oth March.
Thanks to you lot for telling me more about the Company's plans than they do.


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## pacestick (15 April 2009)

Quillan try  web sites like
http://www.miningcoal.com.au/
I constantly do google searches on shares I am interested in as more and more companies are giving less and less  information to the asx. I dont know why this is happening


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## Quillan (15 April 2009)

Thank you Pacestick, and others. 
Here is Brian Flannery's reply to my comments about lack of information, received today.

Dear John
I note your suggestions on how to run the company. There is no dividend policy. The board will consider this after the Moolarben development is completed. Once the policy is decided you can be sure the shareholders will be advised.
Don’t believe all you read on blog sites most of them are rubbish, supported by people who would be better off, spending what little time they have left on earth, serving hot meals to the poor and homeless.
Our next quarterly report is due out on 29th April .
Thank you for your support and comments about our excellent team.
Best regards
Brian Flannery
Managing Director| Felix Resources Limited.

My reply follows:[/B][/B][/B]


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## noirua (15 April 2009)

Information on the Moolarben Project, near Mudgie, NSW and the Ashton mines, near Singleton, in the Hunter:  http://www.moolarbencoal.com.au
http://www.ashtoncoal.com.au


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## Quillan (15 April 2009)

Dear Brian,
That is a bit over the top. Of course I have no right or intention of suggesting how you should run the Company.

Where did I suggest anything about a Dividend policy?

I have commented on the excellent job you and your team are doing. So don't get miffed at a few suggestions about keeping shareholders informed.

Since these bloggers are so uninformed, I take it that you are denying the following comments purported to have been made recently outside the Company, attributed to you or the Company, and reported by these bloggers.

   1, The final dividend of 50 cents for y/e June 2009 has been confirmed.

   2.  You have expressed interest in the Company possibly investing in mines in India and or Indonesia, [but not reported to shareholders on the website.]

"March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Felix Resources Ltd., an Australian supplier of coal to Korea and Japan, is studying acquisitions of energy coal assets in India and Indonesia after last month shelving talks to sell itself to another company.

“Indonesia and India are the two areas we are having a look at,” Brian Flannery, 57, managing director of Brisbane-based Felix, said in an interview. The company is talking to “large groups” in India that are looking to build new power stations, he said. Indonesia is the biggest exporter of energy coal".

[Of no interest to shareholders?]

.
3 Felix Resources has asked the NSW government for permission to develop a new open cut mine near Singleton and increase production from its nearby underground mine. The new mine would produce 3.6 mta and the company wants to increase its underground production from the nearby mine to 5mta"
[ Ditto? No Name supplied for either mine mentioned.]

4. "Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has said, "the company is now selling PCI coal into the spot market".

5. Your interview for the Mudgee Guardian on 19th  February was not exactly the easiest to find from 12,000 miles away, but thanks to a blogger who you think should be running a soup kitchen, I got to see it.

6.Yanzhou Coal Talks With Felix Resources Said to Stall on Price. Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Cathy Chan

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Yanzhou Coal Mining Co.’s talks to take over Felix Resources Ltd., whose stock gained 9 percent last year, have stalled after price disagreements, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

Shareholders of Brisbane-based Felix Resources, which supplies coal to Korea and Japan, have sought at least A$2.9 billion ($1.9 billion), one of the people said, declining to be identified because discussions are private. Yanzhou Coal, China’s fourth biggest producer, may be willing to pay as much as A$2.35 billion, the other person said. No formal offer has been made, the people said".	 

I regard all comments as very relevant to all shareholders, and therefore should be on the website, and disseminated in emails to those who have asked to be kept informed of all Company developments.

If you deny any of these comments, maybe you are right about suggesting some bloggers would be better employed helping the disadvantaged. But thanks to many of them, we get to hear about some of the comments being made, and interviews given. Most, I believe, have a genuine interest in the future of the Companty.

With best wishes,
John.


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## noirua (16 April 2009)

pacestick said:


> Quillan try  web sites like
> http://www.miningcoal.com.au/
> I constantly do google searches on shares I am interested in as more and more companies are giving less and less  information to the asx. I dont know why this is happening



Perhaps they are cutting down on costs as the ASX charge a fee every time.  I notice a small company I'm invested in sent email updates only that they usually put through the ASX as well, not yesterday however.


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## noirua (16 April 2009)

Quillan said:


> Thank you Pacestick, and others.
> Here is Brian Flannery's reply to my comments about lack of information, received today.
> 
> Dear John
> ...




Well done Quillan, at least you got a reply.  
Felix do pay dividends now so I no longer have to queue for my hot meals. Perhaps Mr Flannery could set up a refuge for the poor and homeless, mostly sacked from their jobs as miners recently. 
I notice from the half yearly report that our illustrious MD was paid $100,000 for allowing land access by Minerva (51% owned by Felix).  Perhaps he could consider donating it for his new soup kitchen.
Mr Flannery did say that he expects the Felix final dividend of 50 cents would be paid, but a decision is made by the board of directors at the appropriate time.


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## pacestick (16 April 2009)

noirua said:


> Perhaps they are cutting down on costs as the ASX charge a fee every time.  I notice a small company I'm invested in sent email updates only that they usually put through the ASX as well, not yesterday however.




makes you wonder about continuous disclosure obligations  required by asx dosent it. Despite all that has been said recently  and the nuisance of  having to play sherlock to find out what the company is doing I am very happy with the companys  potential growth its recently appreciation sp  and the competence of the MD


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## noirua (16 April 2009)

This report from CNBC in February, with a $17.57 target price, was the main reason for the lift in the Felix Resources stock price:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1026789049&play=1


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## Quillan (17 April 2009)

I think most would agree with your comments, Pacestick, but it doesn't excuse the Company's failure to publicise the items I listed above. Who knows what next we might miss?
I exclude Noirua from these comments as he or she has his or her ear very close to the ground, and probably knows what Flannery will have for breakfast before Flannery does !!


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## noirua (17 April 2009)

Quillan said:


> Hi Quillan et al, I think most would agree with your comments, Pacestick, but it doesn't excuse the Company's failure to publicise the items I listed above. Who knows what next we might miss?
> I exclude Noirua from these comments as he or she has his or her ear very close to the ground, and probably knows what Flannery will have for breakfast before Flannery does !!



I suppose we all have to be careful with speculation made in the media. They appear to have got it wrong in many cases over the possible takeover of the company. Some posting on another website, which supposedly came from the company, looks extremely suspect (may have originated in Germany).

There is still some interest in Germany, USA and Canada, and a lot of interest in the UK and Ireland, in Felix Resources (the latter originated from a programme called "Show me the Money" in 2000/2001).  Some speculation and share tipping has come from Bloomberg and CNBC, and sometimes proven later not to be accurate.

One of the companies former directors, prior to 2003, held a position with a German Bank, and Felix once had a great prospect in Ballymoney, Northern Ireland.

Interest in Canada stemmed from the companies former gold holdings in Sumatre, they were to be floated in Canada just before the Bre-X disaster hit the markets, for C$300 million, it never happened. Felix still have a 2% royalty interest in the Way Linngo Gold Prospect in Indonesia now owned by Kingrose Mining.

I suppose we all have to be careful what we read now due to the highly speculative nature of the company.


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## noirua (18 April 2009)

Coal leaving Felix Resources' Minerva Coalmine in Queensland: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jT7RBFdFPu0


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## noirua (18 April 2009)

Moolarben Coalmine to Boost Economy:  http://www.miningcoal.com.au/Articl...evelopment-to-boost-local-economy/477347.aspx


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## noirua (23 April 2009)

The Australian News has reported that the Felix Resources' (51%) managed mine at far distant Minerva will be keeping its 128 workers in employment,  Mr Rod hicks, the mines manager, was reported to have said.  Mr Hicks said this was the third downturn he has experienced during his career.
Nearby mines managed by BHP Billiton, Macarthur, Rio Tinto and Peabody are cutting back on staff employed at their mines in Queensland.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25349743-5013404,00.html


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## pacestick (24 April 2009)

noirua said:


> The Australian News has reported that the Felix Resources' (51%) managed mine at far distant Minerva will be keeping its 128 workers in employment,  Mr Rod hicks, the mines manager, was reported to have said.  Mr Hicks said this was the third downturn he has experienced during his career.
> Nearby mines managed by BHP Billiton, Macarthur, Rio Tinto and Peabody are cutting back on staff employed at their mines in Queensland.
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25349743-5013404,00.html



more evidence that felix went into this recession well prepared. Other companies are laying off staff  and already announcing dividend reductions


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## michael_selway (27 April 2009)

pacestick said:


> more evidence that felix went into this recession well prepared. Other companies are laying off staff  and already announcing dividend reductions




Hey not bad today FLX



> DJ Yanzhou Coal: In Talks To Take Over Felix Resources27/04/2009 02:37PM AEST
> HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (1171.HK) is in talks to take over Australian coal miner Felix Resources Ltd. (FLX.AU), although the coal market has been affected by the global financial crisis, Yanzhou Director Wu Yuxiang confirmed Monday.
> 
> Shandong-province based Yanzhou is also seeking several acquisitions domestically and overseas to expand its coal reserves, Wu said without elaboration.
> ...










*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
 2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 141.5 53.8 97.8 
DPS 53.0 59.5 26.0 47.9 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (28 April 2009)

The company has denied any change from comments made in the last half year report regarding the ongoing talks with a number of companies, that had been held up by market conditions.  Looks like continued speculation, imho.

Would the Australian Government allow a Chinese company to take a 100% stake in Felix Resources that would put the control of the Moolarben Project in foreign hands? The mine may reach production of 16mtpa eventually.

Yanzhou Coal would need to bid in cash putting those with capital gains, all of the major holders, in a highly taxed position. Yanzhou has a market quote in America and Hong Kong, but a majority voting share is held by another Chinese company (Yankuang Group formerly The Yanzhou Mining Bureau) which the Chinese Government has a pivotal stake in. A bid by an Australian quoted company in shares and cash looks preferable, but no more than that.


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## noirua (16 May 2009)

A report on Felix Resources issued on 29th April 2009: https://secure.psl.com.au/library/FLX090429.pdf


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## noirua (25 May 2009)

Felix Resources have started the week in bullish mood and the market cap is now $2.32 billion. The development of the Moolarben Project in the Hunter continues and the mine target is to produce this coming Spring, with first deliveries leaving the new port at Newcastle in March 2010 - providing BHP sought out the dredging debacle there.

The Minerva mine continues with sales about 8% above target and sales of PCI coal are picking up from Yarrabee with sales into the spot market. The Ashton mine was 1% above target at the third quarter stage and should pick up further with the switch from open-cut to longwall.

Few expect the present bid discussions to come to anything. More likely is a sale of a stake in the 100% owned Yarrabee mine and Wilpeena Project - this would be to secure PCI coal sales.


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## noirua (26 May 2009)

Felix Resources MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday to have said that the company made its first shipment to China of PCI coal in the last four years, this Quarter, and hopes there will be 10 shipments this year. This coal was sold on the spot market, and has/to be, shipped from the RG Tanna terminal at Gladstone port.


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## pacestick (30 May 2009)

The rise of the aud to 0.80cents can not be good for  the companies ability to hold its dividend rate


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## noirua (31 May 2009)

pacestick said:


> The rise of the aud to 0.80cents can not be good for  the companies ability to hold its dividend rate



Depends if the thermal coal price can rise enough to offset the quickly recovering Aussie - expect another rate cut shortly as Aussie rates should be down a lot lower to fight off reports of recession this quarter.
Up to $67.09 a tonne for thermal coal, spot, out of Newcastle and a lot of Chinese demand for PCI coal out of the Gladstone port: That is being sold on the spot market to China.


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## noirua (1 June 2009)

"Coal blasting at Ashton Mine":  http://www.felixresources.com.au/Videos.php?id=00114

"Longwall at Ashton Mine":
http://www.felixresources.com.au/videos.php?id=00115


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## noirua (1 June 2009)

Both Felix Resources (FLX) (+16.3% to $13.77) and Macarthur Coal (MCC)(+14.9% to $6.25) rose strongly as Credit Suisse raised their target price for FLX to $15 and Macarthur to $6.75.


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## noirua (2 June 2009)

It wasn't long ago that there was talk of Yanzhou Coal bidding $12 for Felix stock. Even the $15 roof price is looking cheap now.
At $13.44 ($2.65 billion market cap) it looks more likely that FLX will move on alone now. As a bid over $20 would be needed (major holders have 69% of the company and they are mostly represented by Directors and Managers of Felix Resources) and it looks most unlikely


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## noirua (4 June 2009)

"China's Australian Coking Coal Imports to Surge, Felix CEO says":
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=ajTFsEk14Cgw&refer=australia


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## gfresh (12 June 2009)

Price has been going crazy lately. Now up over $15 or +8.7% today.. Must be some takeover rumours on the table, or even some accumulation by a potential acquirer?


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## noirua (13 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Price has been going crazy lately. Now up over $15 or +8.7% today.. Must be some takeover rumours on the table, or even some accumulation by a potential acquirer?




I'm told, the announcement by Shenua Energy to spend about $58 billion on oil from coal was the main boosting factor for Felix Resources.  Felix have a large tenement at Phillipson in South Australia that has between 3 and 4 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal: http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSPEK29325120090611

Felix have opened an office in Adelaide and are drilling the area to firm up reserves from inferred and also for other minerals.

Hopefully, Phillipson, a long held tenement, may now may be worth a bit.


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## noirua (13 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Price has been going crazy lately. Now up over $15 or +8.7% today.. Must be some takeover rumours on the table, or even some accumulation by a potential acquirer?



The extent of the recent rise may also have to do with the ongoing Chinese interest SPECULATION: http://www.reuters.com/article/euPrivateEquityNews/idUSTRe5521LL20090603


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## pacestick (13 June 2009)

noirua said:


> The extent of the recent rise may also have to do with the ongoing Chinese interest SPECULATION: http://www.reuters.com/article/euPrivateEquityNews/idUSTRe5521LL20090603




While I have always believed that a full takeover of felix is unlikely and less likely as time goes by a minority purchase of a mine such as yarrabee by such a chinese fund fits with felix's previous strategy


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## sidious (16 June 2009)

Check this link:

online.wsj.com/article/SB124507215867615079.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

It says FLX is in discussion with Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. of china for a 3b takeover. Interesting..

I've pasted the news below from wsj.

BEIJING -- While many Chinese state resources companies are looking abroad for natural resources, China Shenhua Energy Co., the country's biggest coal producer by market value, expects sharp growth at home and isn't feeling pressure to chase deals overseas.

 Shenhua is focusing on doubling its annual coal output capacity to 400 million metric tons by 2014, getting a tailwind from Beijing's push to consolidate coal reserves in the hands of just a few big miners.

Its plan is a vote of confidence in China's coal sector at a time when Beijing, facing criticism from abroad over emissions growth, is looking to cut its share of coal in its energy mix by boosting renewable energy use.

China has the world's third-largest known reserves of coal after the U.S. and Russia, and relies on the fuel for 75% of its electricity needs. Vast amounts of new thermal generating capacity are installed each year, often near the mouth of mines.

However, Shenhua's focus on bulking up its domestic operations also allows it to avoid some difficulties that many of China's companies face when expanding abroad, including a lack of technical expertise. Companies often need to parachute management teams into each project, tying up resources and making the operational side of the business more complex.

"Our international strategy is very cautious because we haven't done business overseas before," said Huang Qing, board secretary of Shenhua. "Given that we start from zero, we prefer to begin with" a greenfield, or initial-stage, project like exploring for coal in Australia's New South Wales state, he said in an interview.

 Shenhua paid 299.9 million Australian dollars (US$243.9 million) to the Australian government last November for a permit to explore the Watermark area in New South Wales, which has estimated reserves of one billion tons of thermal coal. Shenhua is also active in South Sumatra, Indonesia, where it has a project to produce up to three million tons of coal and build two 150-megawatt power generation units by 2012.

But these are small steps compared with the more than A$3 billion takeover of Australian coal miner Felix Resources Ltd. that Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. is negotiating. Yanzhou is China's third-largest coal miner by market value, after second-ranked China Coal Energy Co.

Wang Shuai, a coal analyst at Orient Securities, said Shenhua could afford to be cautious in expanding overseas as China's coal reserves are still able to meet the majority of the country's consumption.

This is in contrast to China's biggest oil companies, which can't find enough new oil fields to meet rising energy needs and replace output declines at existing hubs.

Shenhua, which also operates railways, ports and power plants, has adopted a two-pronged approach to securing growth at home. It is developing two new mines with an annual output capacity of 100 million tons each, and expects to bring them both on stream within five years, Mr. Huang said.

The company, listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong, has also set its sights on buying three assets of its parent, Shenhua Group, although it has yet to fix a timetable, Mr. Huang said. They include a project to make synthetic fuels from coal in northern China's Inner Mongolia region.

Mr. Huang said the venture -- one of only two large-scale coal-to-liquids plants approved by the Chinese government -- requires oil prices above $45 a barrel to be profitable.

The other projects on Shenhua's radar are Wuhai Energy Limited Co., which is the largest coking coal producer in Inner Mongolia, and a coal-to-olefins project in Baotou in the same region.

””David Winning and Wan Xu


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## noirua (16 June 2009)

Yanzhou Coal is a subsidiary of the State owned People's Republic of China company Yankuang Group Company.  Yanzhou is quoted in Shanghai, Hong Kong and the USA, but Yankuang Group has a controlling share.
This would mean that a takeover of Felix Resources would put their 80% stake in the Moolarben Project in the Hunter under the control of the Chinese Government.  
It is thought that this is a main stumbling block in Yanzhou's bid for Felix Resources. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankuang_Group


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## noirua (19 June 2009)

An article in 'Steel Guru' states that Yanzhou Coal have taken over Felix Resources. It appears to be unfounded and probably an error.


http://steelguru.com/news/index/200...t_steel_output_and_centralize_purchasing.html


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## gfresh (19 June 2009)

Amusing..  

It is interesting the price drop from $15 to just below $12.50 yesterday, but there is definitely strong support there. It will be interesting to see what negotiations are underway, it is hard to find further details.


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## noirua (23 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Amusing..
> 
> It is interesting the price drop from $15 to just below $12.50 yesterday, but there is definitely strong support there. It will be interesting to see what negotiations are underway, it is hard to find further details.



Hi gfresh, Felix have board meetings on Monday and Tuesday of this week but I can't see the takeover issue being discussed, except off the record.

Article that is quite bullish for Felix Resources:  http://thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=4059


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## noirua (23 June 2009)

Report from The Australian Business concerning a recent visit by Yanzhou Coal to Felix Resources:  http://m.theaustralian.com.au/business/BusinessNews/fi41906.htm


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## pacestick (25 June 2009)

Felix have once again issued a statement that they do not expect anything to happen in a hurry re takeover. I would add if ever. Its a pity that media speculation causes these problems. I have found in recent years that the media is only good as a lead to do further investigation from


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## noirua (27 June 2009)

pacestick said:


> Felix have once again issued a statement that they do not expect anything to happen in a hurry re takeover. I would add if ever. Its a pity that media speculation causes these problems. I have found in recent years that the media is only good as a lead to do further investigation from



I still can't see Yanzhou Coal being interested in most of Felix Resources. Their eyes seem to be on the Ashton mine at Singleton in the Hunter.

Felix are exploring the area to increase reserves and the mine life. That factor seems to be the reason Yanzhou visited Felix again as they already know the quality of the semi-soft coal at Ashton. 

Yanzhou also know that Felix are set to up production at Ashton to 6.5mtpa and may well be looking for a stake in the mine, combined with an agreement to purchase coal over the life of the mine.

So Yanzhou; if they are uncertain this would only be due to wanting to see the results of further drilling at Ashton.

IMC purchased their 20% stake in the Ashton Mine on 14/6/2005 for AU$30.425 million.  This was before the underground mine was developed and they would have had to pay their share of development costs.


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## noirua (3 July 2009)

A fellow investor in Felix Resources thought that Yanzhou Coal were interested in Felix's Phillipson bitumous coal,  oil from coal prospect in S.A. This has 3 - 4 billion tonnes resource that Felix are exploring out of their Adelaide office, set up last year.
Although this is an interesting scenario and Felix are exploring the area, there appears to be no justification at this stage.  The recent drop in oil prices, despite Aussie weakness, does not, imho, look to be viable at present prices.
Felix also continue to explore for other minerals, but there has been no statement so far from the company.


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## Quillan (7 July 2009)

Back in the days of Meekatharra, Phillipson was reckoned to be cheap to mine, as it would be open cast. The coal price was lower than it is today, and the idea then was to supply the ageing local power plant, whose coal resources were becoming more expensive to dig out as the seams got deeper. Phillipson is situated adjacent to the main railway line north to Darwin and south to Adelaide.
At the time samples were sent to Japan for analysis, to support the transportation of liquid coal products--coal to oil.
In those days I used to lunch with Don O'Callaghan in London, and he was pretty bullish about the prospects. Also for some of the iron ore resources nearby. Hence why Meeka was renamed Auiron Energy. Ah! The grey hairs it gave me when their proprietary Iron smelter blew up, and along with it all our hopes !!
Ref.Yanzhou-- US ticker YZC. It seems to be a good investment in its own right, on a PE of around 7, despite its 70% rise this year. It appears to have monopoly supply situations due to minemouth generators at its mines.

If China continues its present 7%-10% growth p.a. then surely the energy companies are the place to be. The fact thay YZC is trawling Australia for any resources it can pick up on the cheap, supports this scenario.
No doubt Noirua will enlighten us with his opinions. 
[Some say his real initials are B.F?] That's no insult !!

This from the FT 24th June is quite interesting. It adds a bit to other news that day.
 "Felix indicated yesterday that its own discussions with interested parties regarding a takeover deal were ongoing.
Felix's shares have more than doubled to A$13 on the back of takeover speculation that Yanzhou would launch a A$3bn-plus take-over bid - after a previous attempt to engage with the company in December was unsuccessful. It is understood that Yanzhou executives returned to Australia two weeks ago to re-examine the miner's assets. Brian Flannery, managing director of Felix, said the company was in discussion with a number of people about buying coal and a few of them had expressed interest in taking an equity position.

Xstrata Coal is also understood to have looked at Felix. The London-listed miner said yesterday it would not comment on speculation.

Analysts said a tie-up with Xstrata made sense for Felix because the groups' operations were adjacent and Felix had port allocation in place courtesy of the new 30m tonnes per annum-coal port being built at Newcastle by Xstrata and BHP Billiton.

Paul McTaggart, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said a bid by Xstrata or Yanzhou would only succeed if the suitors raised their price expectations.

"We value the stock at A$18 a share so we believe the stock is currently trading at a 30 per cent discount to that," he said.

"A deal won't happen at current prices. And [if] the . . . Moolarben project in NSW can realise its full potential, Felix could command north of A$20 per share."

Felix shares yesterday closed down 3.6 per cent at A$12.50 while Linc dropped by more than 9 per cent to A$1.57.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009


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## pacestick (7 July 2009)

To describe some as having the initals BF on this thread is in my opinion a compliment indeed. I still believe that the Felix will not be sold just as is usual for felix a percentage of a mine


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## noirua (7 July 2009)

I think Mr Brian Flannery MD, is very much a White Mining man and considered the takeover of White Mining by Felix Resources in 2005 really in the form of a reverse takeover, as was RMM's before them in 2003.

The Moolarben Project and the Ashton Mines were in fact once White Mining's companies (also Harry Brandt Project and UCC operations). The Yarrabee Mine was owned by RMM and a 70% stake in Minerva (now 51%) was bought by Felix Resources in 2004.

The Auiron Energy (now part of Felix Resources) in 2003 was principally a company holding about $20 million in cash with all the other assets non-producing.
@@@
I can't see Xstrata bidding for Felix with their own problems, having tried to join with Anglo American. Felix are not in a happy frame of mind after the run of court cases over Moolarben. 
True, Xstrata have mines close to Moolarben and Ashton.  The Ulan open-cut mine adjoining Moolarben has closed but Xstrata continue with a longwall mine there.  Xstrata's mine near Ashton closes in March next year.

As stated before, Yanzhou Coal is owned by a special voting share held by a Chinese State owned Yankuang Group Company. Problems if they bid, though Felix's board may be hoping for an over the top cash bid between $20 - $25 a share.

Felix Board are still probably hoping that BHP Billiton will become seriously interested at some stage.  As they can bid a mixture of stock and cash to reduce capital gains tax liabilities. 
Several have said BHP don't need coal mines, maybe they're right.

Most seem to be going for Yanzhou Coal taking an interest in Moolarben's future Underground Mines and Ashton's Underground mine, combined with a semi-soft coal purchase agreement over the life of the mines. 
Felix will need more cash with development of Moolarben, Wilpeena, Athena (560 million tonnes resource) and further Ashton Development.


----------



## noirua (7 July 2009)

Felix Resources' 80% owned Moolarben Coalmine Photo Gallery: http://www.moolarbencoal.com.au/PhotoGallery.htm


----------



## noirua (15 July 2009)

Felix Resources, like other coal miners, are cheered by higher thermal coal prices and a forecast by UBS of US$90 per tonne, $10 up on their previous forecast.

Companies are increasingly turning to China to take their coal and the continuing holdups at the Port of Newcastle is keeping prices stronger than they may otherwise have been.

There is still some speculation that Yanzhou Coal are pouring over projections for development of the Ashton mine and the mine prospects for the future underground mines at Moolarben indicated to be ready at the end of 2011.  Both mines are and will be mining semi-soft coking coal, Ashton up to 6.5mtpa (Felix interest 3.9mtpa) in the future and Moolarben underground in excess of 8mtpa (Felix interest 6.4mtpa) - Moolarben open-cut will produce 4mtpa (Felix 3.2mtpa) of thermal coal.


----------



## pacestick (20 July 2009)

Further speculation re takeover in this article  however the more important information is the credit suisse rerating. i suspect that reference to BF letting it be known that the company is for sale predates the statement from the company that they consider a change of control  unlikely. However the recomended price is approaching the price I have felt Felix is worth with potential to rise another four dollars as the many projects they have  move into action
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25806539-5005200,00.html


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## noirua (20 July 2009)

pacestick said:


> Further speculation re takeover in this article  however the more important information is the credit suisse rerating. i suspect that reference to BF letting it be known that the company is for sale predates the statement from the company that they consider a change of control  unlikely. However the recomended price is approaching the price I have felt Felix is worth with potential to rise another four dollars as the many projects they have  move into action
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25806539-5005200,00.html



Always hopeful Felix Resources can push on quickly and beat the $20.50 forecast. I doubt any company can sensibly bid without a stock offer and/or cash due to the capital gains tax situation of the major holders.
The high for Felix in 2008 was $23.30 and I have a feeling, guessing of course, that the board of directors want well North of this from a bidder.


----------



## michael_selway (21 July 2009)

noirua said:


> Always hopeful Felix Resources can push on quickly and beat the $20.50 forecast. I doubt any company can sensibly bid without a stock offer and/or cash due to the capital gains tax situation of the major holders.
> The high for Felix in 2008 was $23.30 and I have a feeling, guessing of course, that the board of directors want well North of this from a bidder.




Very interesting, thanks



> Felix Resources (FLX); Credit Suisse; Outperform recommendation; Target price of $20.50; Last traded at $15.62.
> 
> CREDIT Suisse has raised its forecast price and recommendation for takeover target Felix Resources, a coalminer.
> 
> ...










*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 133.8 53.3 92.1 
DPS 53.0 35.5 22.5 42.1 *







thx

MS


----------



## noirua (21 July 2009)

Still driving on up, excellent charts m_s - ($16.10 +50c), though recovering from a slump from $23.30 down to $4.80 is probably a better way to put it. Looks very high risk indeed on the back of the bucking broncos, Semi-soft coke, PCI coal and thermal coal, and the added takeover spice.

A worthy gamble on both factors, imho -  If the money you invest is what you can afford to lose.

Takeover?  I bought the stock in May 1983 as just that, a takeover punt. Both takeovers were in 2003 and 2005, unfortunately it was Felix that did the takeovers in reverse takeover style. Still waiting for a proper takeover bid more than 26 years later.

What's the gamble really.  Well, Felix coal production should reach 16 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by 2014, and (complete guess) if the further potential mines come off at Wilpeena, Harry Brandt and Athena, around 20mtpa. Who knows about Phillipson in SA, as an oil from coal project could come about beyond 2020, maybe/perhaps - 3 to 4 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal there, MD Mr Brian Flannery said last year.

Will they sell the coal though and at what price? Profits could end up not much or through the roof, depending on coal prices. YES!  Felix Resources are a dig-it-out and sell it coal company.


----------



## noirua (23 July 2009)

This article was back in April 2009 and refers to Yanzhou interest in Felix Resources - source Xinhua News Agency
http://chinasecurities.com/ir/Yanzh...in-talks-to-buy-felix-resources/messages/2532


----------



## gfresh (29 July 2009)

And onwards it continues. I don't know whether the current price is still in expectation of a takeover, or simply in reaction to an improved economic outlook. Either way, I'm not minding it  Volume still seems to pretty consistent.


----------



## noirua (29 July 2009)

gfresh said:


> And onwards it continues. I don't know whether the current price is still in expectation of a takeover, or simply in reaction to an improved economic outlook. Either way, I'm not minding it  Volume still seems to pretty consistent.




Fourth quarter report is out tomorrow (Wednesday) and it will be possible to work out how things are going on the sales front.  Minerva mine is known to be going well on sales; Ashton will have raised sales due to mine expansion and the move to underground mining, but will the cut backs at the Newcastle Port and renewed demurrage problems have hurt much; Yarrabee mine has lost home sales to the RIO Hismelt WA smelter that has closed, and Japanese and Korean clients have been reluctant to take coal at agreed prices in the third quarter, forcing Felix to sell on the spot market.

HOWEVER, it is not the producing mines anyone is really over bothered about, it's the Moolarben Project near Mudgee in the Hunter. In Y/E 2011 it should add 3.2 million tonnes for Felix and in Y/E 2013 a further 7.4 million tonnes rising to 9.6 million tonnes eventually. This further coal should more than treble profits going forward to 2013.

Felix could do with more cash to move the Wilpeena (North Yarrabee), Athena near Minerva, Harry Brandt and Ashton expansion forward quickly.  Maybe Yanzhou will take stakes in some mines and solve that problem, only MAYBE however.


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## noirua (31 July 2009)

Felix Resources rose 11.1% during the week with the Fourth Quarter Results last Thursday.

"Felix Resources Sees Increased Demand From China and India":  http://minerals-and-metals.blogspot.com/2009/07/felix-resources-sees-increased-demand.html


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## noirua (8 August 2009)

Felix have slipped back a dollar this week to $16.90 to a market cap of $3.32 billion. A larger trade around 580,000 shares went through on Thursday, the only large trade made for a very longtime. Difficult to say who bought off market but the seller is well guessed - not one of the major players.

All the major holders from 4.99% upwards are known to be holding together and MD Brian Flannery said last year, that there would be no breaking ranks.  That does not mean that those with 0.5% to 3% will not sell indirectly to a player in the market. 

In the end though about 70% is owned by Directors and Senior managers of Felix. Are there any likely weaknesses in the Felix Alliance?  Yes!  In fact AMCI themselves who were last in a few years back with a 19.12% holding at $5.00.
AMCI director and Felix Director, Mr Hans Mende, was not at last years AGM because of other commitments in the States.  That points strongly to where his main interests lie, and they have a near 250% profit on their holding now.

Yes indeed, there are cracks in the Felix Resources main director alliance and it could all break apart, and sooner than expected.


Getting closer now to the $25 - $27 possible expectation of the directors and a few may want less than that.


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## zaz (10 August 2009)

Felix halted due to a potential change of control transaction. 

The potential counter-party has prescribed approval process that are expected to take 3 days to complete. 

Interesting that there were no leaks this time in the newspaper. I wonder if the price drop at the end of last week was related to the offer price we'll see. 

I also wonder if the huge run up has been a result of something leaking. I don't think so because other coal companies have done well as well.

I guess it's time for unbridled speculation as to price! My analysis has FLX worth in the high 20's. Given the last year, I could believe FLX directors will accept less to all get out together.


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## skyQuake (10 August 2009)

zaz said:


> Felix halted due to a potential change of control transaction.
> 
> The potential counter-party has prescribed approval process that are expected to take 3 days to complete.
> 
> ...




Rumour mill says takeover around the $24 mark, Look at CEY, MCC, AQA spike on the trading halt lol. Love that sector!


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## gfresh (10 August 2009)

There has always been speculation on a take-over or buy-in, so maybe wolf was cried a few too many times for the media to pick up on it. 

I doubt the price would have dropped due to the offer price, unless the offer price was under $17, which doesn't seem very likely at all. Coal demand is one of the steadier resources, global recession or not. 

We'll see what offer is presented anyhow, the fact they have held out for so long probably means it will have to be a pretty high one 



skyQuake said:


> Rumour mill says takeover around the $24 mark, Look at CEY, MCC, AQA spike on the trading halt lol. Love that sector!




Till we have no sector!


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## skyQuake (10 August 2009)

Agree with sector might be all gone soon, Coal consumption is still bullish.

prob $20 now, was pitched under $20 though


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## skc (10 August 2009)

gfresh said:


> There has always been speculation on a take-over or buy-in, so maybe wolf was cried a few too many times for the media to pick up on it.
> 
> I doubt the price would have dropped due to the offer price, unless the offer price was under $17, which doesn't seem very likely at all. Coal demand is one of the steadier resources, global recession or not.
> 
> ...




Can someone explain to me why RIV doesn't rise with CEY / MCC / AQA? It's up a stunning 1.4%...

NHC is another sizable coal stock that hasn't moved up on FLX's news. But it's got funny cross holding arrangements so it doesn't command takeover premium.


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## Quillan (10 August 2009)

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. and Felix Resources Ltd. halted trading of their shares amid speculation that China’s fourth-biggest coal producer plans a takeover bid for its Australian rival.

Felix expects an announcement on a potential change of control, the Brisbane-based company said today in a statement to the Australian stock exchange. Yanzhou Coal may bid A$3.7 billion bid ($3.1 billion), or “just under” A$20 a share, for Felix, the Sydney Morning Herald reported, without saying where it got the information.

“The speculated purchase price is high,” Martin Wang, an analyst with Guotai Junan Securities Ltd., said by phone from Hong Kong. “Yanzhou Coal may have to issue additional shares to raise funds for the acquisition.” Felix has climbed 92 percent this year to A$16.20.

China, the world’s biggest coal and metal user, is buying mines and oil fields to meet rising demand spurred by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan. Bids for resources by China, whose $1.95 trillion in currency reserves are the world’s largest, have been met with opposition from lawmakers in Australia and relations between the countries have been strained since the arrest of four Rio Tinto Group executives in July.

Felix Shares

Felix, which supplies coal to South Korea and Japan, fell 1.2 percent to A$16.90 on Aug. 7, giving the company a value of about A$3.3 billion. Yanzhou dropped 2.6 percent to HK$12.12 before the suspension. Yanzhou Coal shares have more than doubled in Hong Kong trading this year, compared with a 42 percent gain in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

Talks with Yanzhou Coal have been underway since last year, two people with knowledge of the matter said in March. “Yanzhou was the name that was speculated on earlier this year,” said Andrew Harrington, a mining analyst at Patersons securities Ltd. in Sydney. “Reading between the lines it looks like some kind of deal has been struck.”

Australia is the world’s biggest shipper of coal and iron ore and China bought 44 percent of the country’s mineral exports last year. Yanzhou Coal will continue to pursue plans to boost coal reserves, President Yang Deyu said in an interview in October.

Felix, which owns the Yarrabee, Minerva and Ashton mines in Australia and a stake in a coal port, produces soft coking coal, an ingredient in steelmaking, and thermal coal, used by power stations, in New South Wales and Queensland. The company is also building the Moolarben coal mine in New South Wales.

Offer Price

Yanzhou Coal may be willing to offer only A$10 to A$12 per share, valuing Felix at up to A$ 2.35 billion, one of the people said in March. Felix may want at least A$15 per share, the other person said then.

The coal price at Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s largest export harbor for the fuel, rose to $76.80 a ton by the week of July 31, recovering from this year’s low of $60.20.

China’s state-owned companies seeking mining and energy acquisitions in Australia are opting for smaller stakes because of opposition to Chinese control of resources, James Philips, a Hong Kong-based mergers and acquisition lawyer at Minter Ellison said June 4.

Australian opposition prompted Rio Tinto Group to abandon a $19.5 billion deal with Aluminum Corp. of China in June and China Minmetals Group to scale down its offer for OZ Minerals Ltd. in March. Last month four Rio Tinto Group employees, including Australian citizen Stern Hu, were detained in China for allegedly stealing state secrets. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government has called on China to deal with the case expeditiously.

Some 57 percent of Australians said Chinese mining investments should be resisted because the nation’s interests would be “better served” with local ownership, according to a poll of 890 people conducted by Essential Research in April.

Felix Managing Director Brian Flannery couldn’t immediately comment when contacted by phone earlier today. The potential counterparty has approval processes that are expected to take more than three days to complete, Felix said in the statement.

Yang didn’t answer calls made to his office today. Zhang Baocai, the company’s board secretary, also didn’t pick up calls made to his mobile phone and office.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.netWinnie Zhu in Shanghai at wzhu4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 10, 2009 00:53 EDT

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## Quillan (10 August 2009)

REUTERS.
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited Makes Takeover Bid For Felix Resources Limited-DJ
Sunday, 9 Aug 2009 10:37pm EDT 

Dow Jones reported that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited has struck an agreement with Felix Resources Limited over a takeover of the Australian miner. There have been media reports that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited could be offering as much as AUD25 a share for Felix Resources Limited but the person said the offer is pitched below AUD20 a share. Shares in both Felix and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited were placed on trading halts Monday with Felix Resources Limited flagging an upcoming announcement on a potential change of control transaction. Felix Resources Limited first advised the market it was in talks over a possible takeover in July last year and a previous round of discussions with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited had stalled earlier this year.


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## noirua (10 August 2009)

In the last main announcement to the ASX, Felix Resources did say that other parties were still in talks with Felix Resources.  Felix did not name any companies but speculation supposed the following to be among them: BHP Billiton, Peabody, Rio Tinto, Yanzhou Coal, Xstrata, Vale and Anglo Coal.

General news shows Felix coal production will treble during the next 4 years and fourfold by 2016. 

Any bid by Yanzhou Coal should be seen as a starting point for bidding and others should come in during the coming months. Closest to $30 should finally take the prize or a fair bit less with Aussie company stock being part of the bid, imho.


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## zaz (11 August 2009)

noirua said:


> Any bid by Yanzhou Coal should be seen as a starting point for bidding and others should come in during the coming months. Closest to $30 should finally take the prize or a fair bit less with Aussie company stock being part of the bid, imho.




Interesting. I suspect the announcement will turn out to be binding on FLX and pre-agreed with little or no scope for counter offers. I expect Yanzhou have learned from the RIO debacle and have bid in such a way as to NOT kick off an auction. I guess we'll see in a few days.


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## noirua (11 August 2009)

zaz said:


> Interesting. I suspect the announcement will turn out to be binding on FLX and pre-agreed with little or no scope for counter offers. I expect Yanzhou have learned from the RIO debacle and have bid in such a way as to NOT kick off an auction. I guess we'll see in a few days.




Hi zaz, Thinking back on the Centennial bid, the Board of Directors had an agreement to support a bid and had to carry on supporting it, despite the bid they supported being inferior.
In this situation, any voting at a Special General Meeting may preclude the directors from voting their shares.  This is provided it has the agreement of, or a ruling by, the Takeovers Panel.
It is about 6 years since I read through the Takeovers Panels' rules and regulations, and it's probably worth trawling through them again.


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## noirua (11 August 2009)

It looks as if Felix directors Mr Duncan Travers, Mr Hans Mende and Mr Brian Flannery are poised to accept the bid from Yanzhou Coal.  A counter bid Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday is needed from a serious company.


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## gfresh (11 August 2009)

Would there be any issue with the Foreign Investment Board and Felix's share of the Newcastle coal terminal I wonder? If Yanzhou take Felix they also gain a share of the terminal / part of the Australia's coal supply infrastructure.


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## Aussiest (11 August 2009)

What has happened to Felix Resources? What would happen to the shareholders (long)?

What would have happened if you were "short" on this stock?

What is the new ticker for FLX??

So many questions, unanswered


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## noirua (11 August 2009)

Many of the Felix Directors (independent excluded) have interests indirectly in Felix Resources by their joint ownership of companies like Coalroc Contractors Ltd., that carry out mining operations. MD, Mr Brian Flannery owns access land to mines for lease fees.

Basically, even if these directors, a former CFO and two managers sell their complete share holdings in Felix, their other involvements continue.

Agreements reached either for continued involvement with a Yanzhou owned Felix Resources or for loss of position as Director or Manager are likely to be substantial.  However, they are considerably rich people and sums are unlikely to be substantial on that basis.


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## noirua (12 August 2009)

Credit Suisse sees Xstrata bidding for Felix Resources due to its next door Ulan mine.
Bloomberg sees Vale and Shenua lining up to counter bid.

Credit Suisse raises price target to $24 a share.

Article on the bid situation from the FT: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/200...ay-another-chinese-resources-deal-down-under/


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## michael_selway (12 August 2009)

noirua said:


> Credit Suisse sees Xstrata bidding for Felix Resources due to its next door Ulan mine.
> Bloomberg sees Vale and Shenua lining up to counter bid.
> 
> Credit Suisse raises price target to $24 a share.
> ...




yep nice






*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 134.8 57.8 109.8 
DPS 53.0 34.3 21.7 39.6 *

thx

MS


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## Quillan (12 August 2009)

It would appear that the takeover terms make acceptances by the Directors and those party to it, irrevocable. But Flannery is a shrewd cookie. He knows that the Authorities have to approve it, and if counterbids arrive, they may say that in the interests of National and Port security, these bids must be given a fair airing. 
If one of them is acceptable to the Shareholders excluding the Directors' group, then the Directors must recommend it. 
What odds they have been given the nod and wink already, which enabled them to commit to the deal?
This no doubt explains why the press commentators don't think this is a done deal, and that we might see $24 as a possible final price.
The Authorities are obviously sensitive to Chinese Companies coming in and buying up chunks of the National Assets, and now perhaps fancy giving China a bloody nose after the way they behaved in the Rio saga.
A pity the likes of Xstrata and Vale could not have seriously entered the fray earlier?
I would rather be talking to Rio, or London than Beijing, with my subsequent shareholding.


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## noirua (13 August 2009)

If comments in Business Spectator can be believed, a counter-bid may have already been made to the Board of Directors of Felix Resources. As they say though, rumours swirl as to a rival having made a bid.

Hopefully, my view, there may be several bids on the table by the start of trading next Monday.  It could be that the share suspension may be in place for quite a while.


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## noirua (13 August 2009)

Bloomberg have just reported that Yanzhou Coal Company has stated that they expect their shares to remain suspended for up to 30 days for asset restructuring.
No word from Felix (Probably fast asleep with the rest of Australia) as to whether their shares will also be suspended. 
No word as to whether Felix Resources will confirm that they have been approached by another rival bidder.


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## noirua (13 August 2009)

It's been reported that AMCI 19.12% shareholder in Felix Resources is fairly highly leveraged and needs to sell its stake in Felix Resources. Report that talk within the industry is that bankers have instructed them to repay debts.

http://business.watoday.com.au/busi...field-exercise-the-tongues-20090811-eh00.html


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## Quillan (13 August 2009)

Noirua. I think your interpretation of the comment in Business Spectator was misread.I believe they appear to be referring only to the existing bid, and not another suitor.Note, it was dated 11 August.It reads like they are behind the curve, and late in reporting the deal.


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## berbouy (13 August 2009)

just noticed there is an announcement on the asx site posted about 20 mins ago , that may be worth a read for the holders of flx- not a holder myself, but noticed from this thread that there is a bit of interest in takeover- good luck to you all that hold-berbouy


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## zaz (13 August 2009)

Summary of the offer:

http://longterm.blogspot.com/2009/08/felix-resource-flx-flxax-yanzhou-yzc.html

.......this is a barely adequate offer. Yanzhou are paying a small premium based on FLX recent closing price and are securing a good 75% plus upside over the next few years. Felix major shareholders are getting the opportunity to sell out together preventing the kind of debacle that happened with Macarthur Coal (where one shareholder sells a blocking stake). 

Importantly the door is wide open for a serious better offer. There is plenty of time for one to materialize which gives FLX shareholders something of a floor. An offer nearer $24, would leave a reasonable 25% upside to the acquirer while paying a more reasonable price to current FLX holders.


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## gfresh (13 August 2009)

Tight **** Chinese! (as per usual). Not that small shareholders will have much of a say at the end of the day. 

Who thinks it will open at $16.95 tomorrow? not me  Will be an interesting day..

This bit is important: 



> Under the SIA, Felix has agreed to the following exclusivity arrangements until implementation (or termination) of the Scheme:
> a) (No shop restriction) it will not solicit or encourage Competing Proposals;
> b) (No talk restriction) it will not negotiate or enter into discussions with any Third Party in relation to a Competing Proposal; and
> c) (No due diligence) it will not provide any due diligence information for the purposes of enabling a Third Party to make a Competing Proposal.
> ...


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## 3 veiws of a secret (13 August 2009)

I have read this thread on of through the years and Noirua has reported well on Felix . Last nite I watched " Business Lateline " with the BHP chap typically coy about BHP is in the market for aquisitions.......I just don't want to crystal ball the situation,but I just wonder how many times BHP can play the white knight. 
Never been a holder of this share ,as I ploughed my money into EXL (EXCEL ).....hope profits are around the corner for the few that hold. G'luck  
(shall watch with anticipation 2morrow):bounce:corn:


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## nomore4s (14 August 2009)

As a shareholder I'm a little bit disappointed with the offer but it is probably a pretty fair offer condsidering the current economic climate. And seeing as I brought in at under $10 at the end of March I'm not too disappointed and the best thing now is there should be a floor around the $17.95 area ($17.45 after the 1st 50c d/e in late Oct).

I've got a feeling we won't see a better offer but I really hope I'm wrong, something over $20 would be nice


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## noirua (14 August 2009)

Mr Hans Mende is the Chairman of the AMCI Australian subsidiary and a Director of Felix Resources. AMCI holds 19.2% of Felix and Mr Mende holds stock in his own right.

It seems perfectly possible that knowing AMCI were looking to sell their holding that that may have been part of the reasoning for MD, Mr Brian Flannery being so conducive to companies wanting to buy Felix. That is to set the ball rolling for AMCI.

Mr Flannery also said the main holders would stay together on any bid situation and now it is increasingly obvious that it was about to fall apart. 
The shock of the share price fall below $5 in January may also have been a factor.

As to bid price it does depend on the coal price and demand.  

Felix are a dig it out and sell it coal miner, little else on the profits front.  However, Felix have shown they are a very profitable company and Mr Flannery has said profits at Moolarben would be good even with benchmark thermal at US$60 per tonne (its around US$73 - US$75 at the moment with a bullish article from Merrill seeing US$80 per tonne next year).

Talk of $24 to $27 as the right price for Felix seem fair for this Coal-Growth-Tiger of Australia.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (14 August 2009)

Has time been stated for FLX (Felix Resources) to come back onto the market i.e. time-wise????


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## noirua (14 August 2009)

"Felix Resources confirms takeover by Yanzhou Coal"- 14/8/2009
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-08/14/content_8570265.htm

Yanzhou Coal Company finished trading on Wall Street 7.3% up and were suspended limit up in Shanghai (+10%).
Felix Resources finished 3.5% up at $17.60 with 4,628,006 shares traded.  Largest trade at 693,583 shares at $18.00.

Reject Inferior bid says Macquarie:  http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/2009-08/14/content_8570265.htm


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## Tranquility (14 August 2009)

This might seem obvious to most of you on here... but what does the offer actually mean?  I've never held shares in a company that's been taken over before, so I dont know...

Does a cash payment for each share mean that we are forced to sell our shares to the takeover company, or that they will be paying this amount to shareholders and letting us keep our shares?

Also, what is an in-specie distribution on shares?


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## noirua (14 August 2009)

Tranquility said:


> This might seem obvious to most of you on here... but what does the offer actually mean?  I've never held shares in a company that's been taken over before, so I dont know...
> 
> Does a cash payment for each share mean that we are forced to sell our shares to the takeover company, or that they will be paying this amount to shareholders and letting us keep our shares?
> 
> Also, what is an in-specie distribution on shares?




"Macquarie says Reject Inferior bid":  http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag0Oyc9NeQ.0

Don't concern yourself with this starting bid that is just a shot over the bows.  $24 or more is what we are looking for.

We are only forced to sell to the bidder if they obtain at least 90% acceptance for their offer.

"in-specie" means the shares of a company will be distributed and not sold for cash.


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## Tranquility (14 August 2009)

Ahh, I didn't know they had to obtain 90% acceptance.  I will definitely hold out!

Thanks for your help Noirua


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## zaz (14 August 2009)

Tranquility said:


> Ahh, I didn't know they had to obtain 90% acceptance.  I will definitely hold out!
> 
> Thanks for your help Noirua




It's 90% for an on or off market offer. This is a scheme of CA. In which case I think you'll find that the 90% does not apply. 

Even if the 90% does apply you could end up with a shareholding that is no longer traded on the ASX and with no dividends, i.e. a locked in minority investor, not a great position to be in. 

You'll find more info on the FIDO website.

Neil
longterm.blogspot.com


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## zaz (14 August 2009)

noirua said:


> "Felix Resources confirms takeover by Yanzhou Coal"- 14/8/2009
> http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-08/14/content_8570265.htm
> 
> Yanzhou Coal Company finished trading on Wall Street 7.3% up and were suspended limit up in Shanghai (+10%).
> ...




Can you believe that China Daily has taken down the article with the Macquarie recommendation! Go China!


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## noirua (14 August 2009)

zaz said:


> Can you believe that China Daily has taken down the article with the Macquarie recommendation! Go China!



Try this link instead on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com.au/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag0Oyc9NeQ.0


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## Quillan (15 August 2009)

With Flannery and Duncan worth around $A500 million each, they have little incentive to hold out for a fair price of $23-$25 as judged by Macquarie and others mining commentators.
Hang on in there private shareholders. If B.F was only worth say $5million he would still be fighting like hell for a fair price.
Analysts say that in 2 years the Felix arm will increase Yanzhou's earnings by as much as 37%. 
If this is a fair estimate we are bing sold down the river by our Directors. Remember,Yanzhou is huge compared with Felix, so a 37% increase in their earnings is a massive gain. That tells me they could afford to pay $A24, because Felix is the prime coal asset in Australia with all the coming new fields in the share price for nothing.
We shall soon know. If B.F and his fellow Directors are right, no new offer will emerge, but in 2 year's time we will all be saying "they stole the Company from under our noses".


----------



## michael_selway (15 August 2009)

Quillan said:


> With Flannery and Duncan worth around $A500 million each, they have little incentive to hold out for a fair price of $23-$25 as judged by Macquarie and others mining commentators.
> Hang on in there private shareholders. If B.F was only worth say $5million he would still be fighting like hell for a fair price.
> Analysts say that in 2 years the Felix arm will increase Yanzhou's earnings by as much as 37%.
> If this is a fair estimate we are bing sold down the river by our Directors. Remember,Yanzhou is huge compared with Felix, so a 37% increase in their earnings is a massive gain. That tells me they could afford to pay $A24, because Felix is the prime coal asset in Australia with all the coming new fields in the share price for nothing.
> We shall soon know. If B.F and his fellow Directors are right, no new offer will emerge, but in 2 year's time we will all be saying "they stole the Company from under our noses".




Is a counter bid likely?

thx

MS







*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 134.5 56.1 109.8 
DPS 53.0 34.3 21.7 41.2 *



> Yanzhou’s A$3.5 Billion Felix Bid ‘Inferior,’ Macquarie Says
> Share | Email | Print | A A A
> 
> By Jesse Riseborough
> ...


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## noirua (15 August 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Is a counter bid likely?
> 
> thx MS




Previous reports, very many of them, expected the Yanzhou bid to come in just under $20 per share. So they are keeping, so it would seem, a couple of dollars in the piggy bank.

If the bids go a lot higher I would expect Shenhua Energy to take over the Chinese bidding as the largest coal miner. Shenhua are building eleven holding areas for semi-soft coking coal and (PCI coal most of which is being bought as higher grade thermal).
In my view, Yanzhou Coal do not really cut the mustard if bidding reaches $24 or more per share.

Bidders said to be lining up in a Bloomberg report are Noble Group, Shenhua Energy, Vale SA, Peabody and Xstrata. 
No mention of my favourite "White Night" BHP Billiton. BHP have a mine in NSW that is expected to ramp up to 15mtpa and my feeling is that they'd like/ prefer to control the Moolarben 13mtpa low cost future mines as well. I would say that the majority of those I speak to do not agree with my view.

Have I bought more stock?  No, as I added some early in the year and I'm in mega-deep now.


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## zaz (16 August 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Is a counter bid likely?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Detailed analysis of the potential bidders and likelyhood of a counter. 

http://longterm.blogspot.com/2009/08/felix-resources-flx-flxax-takeover.html

Like Noirua i'm not buying more now but this seems like a good, asymetric, opportunity. FLX is already too much of my portfolio so simply not selling is a big bet on a higher offer.

A counter is quite likely but only a few of the mooted names have the capacity to play.


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## noirua (16 August 2009)

zaz said:


> Detailed analysis of the potential bidders and likelyhood of a counter.
> 
> http://longterm.blogspot.com/2009/08/felix-resources-flx-flxax-takeover.html
> 
> ...




Hi zaz, I thought I should point out an error concerning Vale do Rio Doce (Vale) and the comment in the blog you have shown a link to. The blog says that Vale own AMCI which is not correct at all and could be seriously misleading.

In early 2007 Vale purchased AMCI Australia's Hunter Valley and Bowen Basin coalmines.  About $835 million was paid to AMCI for these coalmines.

AMCI (based in the United States are America's largest exporter of thermal coal) including their Australian subsidiary is a private owned company.  Mr Hans Mende, a director of AMCI and of Felix Resources, owns part of the privately owned AMCI. 

AMCI used part of the proceeds from the mining sales in early 2007 to take stakes in Gloucester Coal, Centennial Coal and Felix Resources.

In the bloggers defence there are errors at Wikipedia and a few other sources. There are other minor errors and omitions in the blog.


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## gfresh (16 August 2009)

While BHP is often mentioned in these sorts of situations, I've yet to see them make a bid for some of the smaller miners. Although just now the possibility of ~$10bn kitty being fair for acquisitions (BHP CFO - Inside Business). I think they are only a small chance at best as that would take a fair chunk of that. 

I am unsure whether the Chinese would get into a bidding war against another Chinese co. I don't think that is part of the "chinese way" but we will see.  

A bid over $20 would push the total price over $4bn, which is a fair bit to pay, I have a feeling that may be too much for others players, even the large ones.  

Was a lot of traders getting out on Friday I would say to get their capital back. Some may have gone straight into CEY, although that may only be co-incidental the spike there. Most traders aren't interested in waiting until December, or the possibility of the transaction not going through. High volume indicates for the many sellers there were many buyers willing to speculate on a higher price being presented. But I'm not sure TBH.


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## noirua (16 August 2009)

Felix Resources share price as far as a takeover is concerned has moved more towards earnings potential than asset value. 

Coal production will treble over the next four years with Moolarben adding over 10mtpa on its own for Felix - the coal is low cost. 
Yarrabee will add 1mtpa of PCI coal and more when the Wilpeena area is developed (north Yarrabee).
Ashton production of semi-soft coke will ramp up by a further 1.5mtpa for Felix in the next two years.
Athena (near Minerva) is as large as Moolarben and is also a future mine.

Profitability does depend on the coal price and whether all this coal can be sold.
On the likely outcome in 2009 profits, if these go on, on the same basis by 2013 then profits should reach $1.2 billion. But there is the gamble on coal price and sales.

Is Felix worth $3.5 billion or more like $7 billion. Depends if you are an optimist or pessimist on the coal price?


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## michael_selway (17 August 2009)

gfresh said:


> While BHP is often mentioned in these sorts of situations, I've yet to see them make a bid for some of the smaller miners. Although just now the possibility of ~$10bn kitty being fair for acquisitions (BHP CFO - Inside Business). I think they are only a small chance at best as that would take a fair chunk of that.
> 
> I am unsure whether the Chinese would get into a bidding war against another Chinese co. I don't think that is part of the "chinese way" but we will see.
> 
> ...




Didnt BHP buy NHC's Saraji Project for $2.5bil not too long ago?






Thx

MS


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## grace (17 August 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Didnt BHP buy NHC's Saraji Project for $2.5bil not too long ago?
> 
> MS




Yes MS.  They sold it to NHC in 2000 around about for like $200k (well cheap - don't quote me on the exact figure, I put it in the relevant thread at the time I recall) then bought it back for $2.5billion.


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## Quillan (17 August 2009)

Thanks to Zaz's Post #944, I have just posed this on the website he /she refers to.

As a Felix Shareholder for some years, I would be happy with an all share deal from BHP, at the equivalent of say $25 a share in BHP shares.
This would suit many shareholders with large CGT Liabilities,and the strength of BHP for future values.
Thanks for your excellent analysis of the potential bidders, making BHP the clear leader in the field.


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## Quillan (17 August 2009)

Thanks to Zaz's reply #944 I have just posted this on the website he refers to.

"As a Felix Shareholder for some years, I would be happy with an all share deal from BHP, at the equivalent of say $25 a share in BHP shares.
This would suit many shareholders with large CGT Liabilities,and the strength of BHP for future values.
Thanks for your excellent analysis of the potential bidders, making BHP the clear leader in the field."


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## noirua (17 August 2009)

Profile of Felix Resources director Mr Hans J Mende (the ownership dispute ended in a $7.00 offer for Gloucester Coal by Noble Group, Mr Hans Mende and AMCI Group accepted the offer. However, Noble Group failed to get 100% of the group and the offer ended with them having a majority holding. :  http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25450525-5001641,00.html


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## Quillan (18 August 2009)

I notice this paragraph in the 13 August offer details from Felix.

"The transaction is unanimously recommended by Felix‟s Board of Directors subject to the opinion of the Independent Expert and in the absence of a superior proposal.

Wait a minute. Who  is this "Independent Expert"? If he or she is Independent, we should have the right to know who it is.

Who or how is the IE picked?

Why "The" Independent Expert? Seems their identity is already known.
I would like to know how he or she can maintain the offer is fair, when virtually all the Press has said an offer of around $24  is the right ball park figure, and Bloomberg maintains the bidders are lining up, naming them. 

Many may drop out, not because they don't believe a figure of £24 is reasonable, but because they can't raise the money.That fact doesn't alter the opinion of virtually every Mining Commentator who has pitched near the $24 figure.

Come on B.F, tell us who you have picked? Presumably out of a hat, or how can you call them "Independent"?
It's pretty clear that an Independent Expert is not going to put egg on your face by announcing a fair price of $24. Your negotiating skills would look threadbare, and may still do so.

So it looks like the opinion of this so-called "Independent Expert" is preordained.

Methinks the ASX should look into this. Is this mystery figure going to support B.Fs judgement for a nice fat fee, or is their opinion going to have scorn poured all over it by virtually all the other Experts who point to $24?

I reckon this Independent Expert is caught between a rock and a hard place. If he/she supports B.F and the Board's valuation, his or her valuation judgement will not carry any weight in future lucrative Valuation proposals.

I guess their only way out would be to do this calculation on the back of an envelope , for which a fat fee will be paid
Got your pencil out INDEPENDENT EXPERT?

[$24 -$18] / 2 = $3. Add to $18 = $21 THE HALF WAY HOUSE USUALLY PRESERVES ALL INTEGRITIES, and gives the remaining players a base from which to pitch their real bids.

No really Independent Expert can justify $18. Everyone except B.F. and his Board seems agreed on this !!


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## zaz (18 August 2009)

Quillan said:


> Who or how is the IE picked?
> So it looks like the opinion of this so-called "Independent Expert" is preordained.
> 
> I guess their only way out would be to do this calculation on the back of an envelope , for which a fat fee will be paid
> ...




You can be 100% sure that the independent expert's report will support the directors who pay for it. There are lots of ways to justify $18. You value Felix, then discount Moolarben by 50% because it still needs to be built. Then you add a discount for the risk of a current shareholder selling a blocking stake. Hey presto you're at $18. The funny thing is the "Independent" expert will probably believe what he's written. 

In valuation you can squeeze the numbers until they sing. The profession is rife with bias but it's not illegal. It's probably not even immoral, it's a professional opinion subtly biased by whoever is paying. 

In the end we can all pay for our own expert valuations and decide how to vote our shares. The directors have to go through this process but there is no chance it will go against them and the valuer will get a fat fee for their troubles.


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## doctorj (18 August 2009)

zaz said:


> In valuation you can squeeze the numbers until they sing. The profession is rife with bias but it's not illegal. It's probably not even immoral, it's a professional opinion subtly biased by whoever is paying.



Very true - I'm looking at company right now who's expert valuation has come in at nearly 4 times the expert valuation we paid for.  Both methodologies are sound, it's the assumptions and discount rates that always make the difference...

To be honest, it'd make my life easier if they were closer together, even if it meant 'our expert' valuation was higher.  Try to explain to a credit committee why you should pay significantly more than your own independent valuation...

For me, the difference is in the mentality.  If you're doing a valuation commissioned by the seller, you look for the most favourable assumptions that appear resonable and defendable.  If you're commissioned by the buyer, you're looking for the lowest that fit those same criteria... The reality is the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


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## noirua (19 August 2009)

Markets are starting to crumble somewhat and particularly China, and this tends to make a rival bid expectation somewhat lower. Afterall, Yanzhou's bid was $2 less than expected.

Felix Annual results are out at the end of August and regulatory approval of the bid is earmarked for end of September.  So, making a rival bid without being able to read these thoroughly and before the bid is approved, looks unnecessary, why bother.  In addition, markets might well fall and coal prices at the same time.

I still expect a counter bid by early October but only in the region $19.50 - $20.50, and improving on the SACCS stock handout. In the week following, depending on market conditions, a higher offer MAY come.

Markets change suddenly and it's necessary to be flexible and accept it.


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## awg (19 August 2009)

bought into these today for my SMSF pension. 

the takeover documents state that the first 50c dividend will be fully franked

and they expect the 2nd one to be as well

so on a 100c dividend, I would be looking at 42.9c franking credit.

at my buy price of 17.43, that gives me a return of exactly $1

ie ($16.95 +5c) + (100c +42.9c)

on a 5 month turnaround that is 5.73%  (13.7% annualised)..imputation credits are fully credited in pension phase

that is a reasonably acceptable return for a super fund, and certainly beats bank interest

Am i missing something??

If the price drops again, I might load up some more, as there seems to be small downside risk, and some up side of possible better bid.

Is the 5c "in specie distribution of shares in SACC" to be paid in cash?


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## noirua (19 August 2009)

awg said:


> bought into these today for my SMSF pension.
> 
> the takeover documents state that the first 50c dividend will be fully franked
> 
> ...



If Yanzhou manage to jump through the Chinese and Aussie hoops then a vote would be taken by shareholders.  Yanzhou have not said whether they would accept less than 90% acceptance as yet.
All the above is subject to a counter bid not being made.

A lot of stock changed hands since last Friday and one large holder is reported to have sold out off market and a number of other off market trades have been reported. Yanzhou may not buy Felix stock in the market or as an off market trade, as yet.

Buying Felix stock now looks to be a good gamble.  Should you gamble with your pension though?

SACCS is an in-species distribution of SACC stock and is subject to an ASX quotation being made within the Yanzhou time table, which I believe is subject to change depending on any delays in regulatory approval.

The 50c final dividend will be paid at the end of October, this is certain.  The other two 50c dividends are subject to bid procedure and may not be made.


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## awg (19 August 2009)

noirua said:


> If Yanzhou manage to jump through the Chinese and Aussie hoops then a vote would be taken by shareholders.  Yanzhou have not said whether they would accept less than 90% acceptance as yet.
> All the above is subject to a counter bid not being made.
> 
> A lot of stock changed hands since last Friday and one large holder is reported to have sold out off market and a number of other off market trades have been reported. Yanzhou may not buy Felix stock in the market or as an off market trade, as yet.
> ...




thanks for the reply

I think there is only 2 divs in total, not 3 as your reply infers?

I realise the deal may not proceed, that is the downside, but that risk seems fairly slight, if it does, we will all get wacked in the short term 

as to gambling with the pension, stocks are a gamble, but bank interest rates are a dead set cert, too low, this one seems like a low risk, and I use position sizing to manage risk.

imputation credits are a big factor in pension phase ( mine anyway)

thanks for the insight into the SP fall, it has me cautious about grabbing anymore


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## noirua (19 August 2009)

awg said:


> thanks for the reply
> 
> I think there is only 2 divs in total, not 3 as your reply infers?




Hi awg, If you go to the Felix website you will see that the Felix final dividend is paid in late October - irrespective of the bid situation.  At about that time a further 50c dividend will be paid separately - respective of the bid situation and a further 50c dividend in December also respective of the bid situation. The final payment of $16.95 will also be paid separately in December.


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## GumbyLearner (20 August 2009)

noirua said:


> Hi awg, If you go to the Felix website you will see that the Felix final dividend is paid in late October - irrespective of the bid situation.  At about that time a further 50c dividend will be paid separately - respective of the bid situation and a further 50c dividend in December also respective of the bid situation. The final payment of $16.95 will also be paid separately in December.




Now that's a decent and rewarding dividend! Considering the price of the share. That seems to be a good yield


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## noirua (20 August 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Now that's a decent and rewarding dividend! Considering the price of the share. That seems to be a good yield




If that were the whole story GumbyLearner, unfortunately the two 50c dividends, SACCS and final $16.95 payment make up the cash for the whole company, per share ($18). Most now want between $24 and $27 based on the fact that coal sales should treble, and there may be some swords crossed and blood drawn in the months ahead.

BHP Billiton is seen as the one and only white night and their mail boxes are said to be jammed with pressures from many sources to make a cash and shares bid.


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## nomore4s (20 August 2009)

noirua said:


> Hi awg, If you go to the Felix website you will see that the Felix final dividend is paid in late October - irrespective of the bid situation.  At about that time a further 50c dividend will be paid separately - respective of the bid situation and a further 50c dividend in December also respective of the bid situation. The final payment of $16.95 will also be paid separately in December.




I'm not so sure about that noirua. From the annoucement about the takeover:



> - the payment of dividends totaling A$1.00 per share, funded primarily from Felix‟s cash reserves;
> - as part of the A$1.00 per share in total dividends, Felix is today declaring a fully franked dividend of A$0.50 per share to be paid to shareholders in respect of the year ended 30 June 2009. This dividend will be paid on 30 October 2009 with a record date of 15 October 2009, and;
> - The record date for the second dividend of A$0.50 will be determined and announced to the market closer to completion.




Says to me there will only be 2 50c d/e paid.


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## noirua (20 August 2009)

Just to get matters straight.  The Felix Annual results are out on 26th August and the company has unusually announced a 50c fully franked dividend before the results, to be paid at the end of October, as it has been in the last four years.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@

The takeover bid by Yanzhou Coal is worth $18 per share.  This is made up of $16.95 to be paid separately in December 2009.  A further $1.00 dividend to be paid fully franked (Felix hope it will be fully franked), and this will be paid in two parts, and will depend on Aussie regulatory approval.  One payment of 50c in late October or maybe later and the other 50c at the time the main payment of $16.95 is made, but separate. 
One share in SACCS will be given for each share held in Felix Resources provide an ASX quote is obtained by December (Felix have given $10 million to SACCS, or will be.)

@@@@@@@@@@@@@

The gold royalties in Sumatre and iron ore royalties in Hawks Nest are not in included with SACCS, and that is as well as ADC in Felix's agreement with Ausmelt and the remainder of S.A.S.E.  This is due to an advanced class A action being brought by Krakatau Steel agains Felix and possible class A action over the gold royalties.

That's it, unless a counter bid is made.  Or Yanzhou vary the bid in the future.


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## ozbecool (22 August 2009)

There are already many posts about FLX dividends and offer evaluation - so I'd like to say a few words about :

1.	TECHNICALS:
Most indicators show that the mid/long UP trend is getting stronger - especially divergences and those derived from price moving averages.
2.	FUNDAMENTALS:
Current market cap: ~ $3.4b 
Good, low debt/asset ratio  (as on Jun08):  ~ 17%
Fairly low book value  (as on Jun08): ~ $2.8 (thus company equity is much lower ~ $544m than its market cap)
ROE  (as on Jun08): ~ 18.7 and growing strongly in past years

 So considering Wed-Fri sell off and price dips it might be worth watching this stock in a recently declining All Ords environment - so those keen to buy this stock might have a good 'price dip' opportunity now / in coming days.


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## Quillan (25 August 2009)

BHP Billiton is seen as the one and only white night and their mail boxes are said to be jammed with pressures from many sources to make a cash and shares bid.[/QUOTE]

Enlighten us Noirua, O wise person!! Do you have a spy inside BHP's letter box? 
Where does this suggestion come from? Iwould certainly welcome a bid from them, at the right price, of course !!
Are you just trying to talk up the bid price, or do you have substantiated evidence for the $24--$27 suggestion?
I'll buy you a Tinnie if you are proved right !!


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## noirua (25 August 2009)

noirua said:


> The Felix Annual results are out on Wednesday 26th August and the company has unusually announced a $1.00 fully franked dividend before the results, to be paid on 30th October to those registered on the books at the close of business on 9th October 2009.
> @@@@@@@@@@@@@
> 
> The takeover bid by Yanzhou Coal is worth $17.50 per share.  This is made up of $16.95 to be paid separately in December 2009.  A further 50c dividend to be paid fully franked (Felix hope it will be fully franked), and this will be paid also in December, and will depend on Aussie regulatory approval.
> One share in SACCS will be given for each share held in Felix Resources provided an ASX quote is obtained by December (Felix have given $10 million to SACCS, or will be.)




The following is updated to Felix Resources announcement yesterday of the proposals leading to an eventual bid by Yanzhou Coal, subject to Aussie and Chinese approval.


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## noirua (25 August 2009)

Quillan said:


> BHP Billiton is seen as the one and only white night and their mail boxes are said to be jammed with pressures from many sources to make a cash and shares bid.



With summer coming on "white night" and BHP Billiton moving hopefully for our summer event "Nuit Blanche".


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## noirua (25 August 2009)

Felix Resources Annual results should be out sometime tomorrow morning and will give a pointer to Felix Resources likely profits going forward on a per tonne profit basis. 

This years sales reached 4.71 million tonnes and output should treble in year ending June 2013 to around 13mtpa to 16mtpa in the years following.


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## skc (25 August 2009)

Quillan said:


> BHP Billiton is seen as the one and only white night and their mail boxes are said to be jammed with pressures from many sources to make a cash and shares bid.




Here are the headlines I see if BHP rides in as a white knight for FLX...

Day 1 - Take that China! BHP outbids Yanzhou for Felix
1 week later - BHP executives arrested in China
3 weeks later - Iron ore talks melt down: China will build houses using bamboo
1 month later - Is K Rudd's Chinese good enough? 10 things to say to mend the Sino-Aussie relationship
1 month + 1 day later - Australia PM detented by Chinese officials
6 weeks later - China declares all out war on Australia
7 weeks later - Australia surrenders after US refused to send out reinforcements due to lack of funds
8 weeks later - All Aussie-China mining operations are now state owned


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## awg (26 August 2009)

noirua said:


> Just to get matters straight.  The Felix Annual results are out on 26th August and the company has unusually announced a 50c fully franked dividend before the results, to be paid at the end of October, as it has been in the last four years.
> @@@@@@@@@@@@@
> 
> The takeover bid by Yanzhou Coal is worth $18 per share.  This is made up of $16.95 to be paid separately in December 2009.  A further $1.00 dividend to be paid fully franked (Felix hope it will be fully franked), and this will be paid in two parts, and will depend on Aussie regulatory approval.  One payment of 50c in late October or maybe later and the other 50c at the time the main payment of $16.95 is made, but separate.
> ...





I feel obliged to clarify further.

I rang Felix just now.

I spoke to Brian Flannery

There is ONLY 2 Dividends payable under any circs, NOT 3


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## noirua (26 August 2009)

awg said:


> I feel obliged to clarify further.
> 
> I rang Felix just now.
> 
> ...




Hi awg, If you look at post #967 on 24th August, you will see a correction was made in line with the Felix Resources announcement.  This clarifies that there will be two dividends and not three if the bid reaches the final stages in favour of Yanzhou Coal.


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## Quillan (28 August 2009)

“We view the acquisition positive to Yanzhou, as the company puts excess cash to use,” Credit Suisse Group analysts Trina Chen, Kevin You and Ada Dai said in a report today. “We estimate the proposed acquisition to boost earnings by 14 percent for 2010 earnings, and 37 percent by 2011 earnings.” 

Yanzhou climbs 25% on the terms of the offer, and B.F says the deal is fairly priced. Can any Board of Directors claim they have negotiated a fair deal for its shareholders, when Credit Suisse says it will enhance Earnings for Yanzhou, in 2 years by 37%? 
The Yanzhou share price says emphatically "no" !!

Presumably if a new Offer was pitched at $24, it would still increase earnings by about 25%?

I repeat, if B.F and his fellow Director/Shareholders were only worth say $5m a piece, they would have thrown the offer out, and either waited for a fair offer, or continued to build the wealth of the Company as they have already done so successfully.

But no. They are already fabulously wealthy, and we don't know the personal Directors' remuneration packages which go with the acceptance. Surely the ASX should make this information part of any takeover proposal ?

It is obviously much cheaper for Yanzhou to pay these packages out of future earnings, than to fork out an extra $1.2 billion to bring the offer up to $24 a share.

Noirua reckons the BHP Postbag is full of letters exhorting them to bid. Would earnings increases of 25% in 2 years not be tempting? 

And what of the Federal Government? They may say Felix assets are not pivotal, since they all go to export, but surely it is better to keep the assets in Australian shareholders ownership--plus a few Poms !!-- so that the entire value of the mining exercise says in the country?

I will reinvest the monies in BHP if I am forced to take Yanzhou's 18 pieces of silver.

I believe in your Country, but not in mine, I am sad to admit.

Does your Government really want to preside over the rape of your assets, until you become little more than a distant dependent province of China? 

For this reason alone it should be suggesting to BHP what is paramount in the interests of the country, and provided the deal makes sense to BHP, it is surely likely to go ahead?

Don't take a leaf out of the British book under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown !!
One of their first actions when they came to power 12 years ago was to sell off the Gold Reserves held at the Bank of England, at around $300 an ounce.
America did much the same. They are not even prepared to allow an audit of the gold "supposedly" held at Fort Knox. Probably because it no longer exists.

Now Britain's economy is in worse shape than several Eastern bloc countries, with debts approaching 100% of GDP. 

Every child born in Britain inherits a debt of £20,000. 

That's what happens with imprudent management of the Country's finances, and when you sell off the Family Silver on the cheap.You have been warned.

You remain a very wealthy Nation. 

About all we have left is the Ashes !! :

You are welcome to submit my thoughts to your Newspapers. We might start a huge tidal wave of objections to foreigners' determination to steal your assets on the cheap.
Natural resources are the seedbed of the future for your children.
China recognises this, so apparently does Credit Suisse, but not B.F., whose childrens' future is assured--assuming he has some.


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## noirua (28 August 2009)

Hi Quillan, I'm sure all the shareholders of Felix, including the directors (on the quiet) are cheering you from the rafters, the Felix directors hanging from the rafters - by their hands of course.
My comments about BHP were not meant to be a literal letter box, more a reaction from an interview with a BHP director shortly after the bid and an article on Bloomberg that discussed this and opinions from Macquarie on their valuation of $24 - $25. I did send a letter and email to BHP and my cousin did also, and some from bulletin boards on Felix in Australia, Canada, US, Hong Kong, Germany and UK said or told me they did.

There are still shareholders in the United States, Germany, Eire and UK (UK once held over 50% of Felix stock, quoting MD Mr Neill Arthur in 2001) and at least one in Canada (my cousin). The previous MD Mr Jon Parker did say that Felix shareholders still held over 20% of the stock  before the buyback 9.3c, 93c after consolidation, in 2004).

Felix's Annual Results will be out sometime on Monday so further comment on valuations is probably best left to then.


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## noirua (30 August 2009)

Felix Resources directors may have a particular reason for wanting out of Felix Resources shares and that would be the reason for wanting and recommending a bid from Yanzhou Coal. This bid seems both complex and unacceptable. 
Where are the directors really coming from on this bid and the long term courting of a bidder?
Are the directors hiding something?  That it seems in an underlying factor on this recommendation.

What are Felix Directors, former directors and managers, interests directly in Felix Resources and most importantly indirectly:

MD Mr Brian Flannery owns Ilwella Pty which has a 14.99% stake in Felix Resources.  He also has an interest in Coalroc Contractors, operators of the Ashton Mine that are also paid access agreements. He is also paid access to the Minerva mine by a loan given by Felix Resources.

Director Mr Hans Mende controls AMCI's 19.14% shareholding in Felix Resources and he has a personal interest in AMCI. Mr Mende has an additional personal stake in Felix.

Chairman Mr Travers Duncan owns Gaffwick Pty which has a 15.24% interest in Felix Resources.

Former company CFO Mr David Knappick (resigned 31/1/2008) owns partly and controls a 7.41% stake in Felix Resources by Fibora Ltd. He also has a personal stake in Coalroc Contactors.

Former Manager Mr Joseph Butta (resigned 31/1/2008) owns a 4.94% holding in Felix Resources through Remold Holdings (formerly Greenworth).  He also has a personal interest in Coalroc Contractors.

Former Directors Mr I McCauley and Mr J Rawlins own Rawmac Pastoral that has access licence fees to the Yarrabee Mine.

Former Director Mr J Rawlins owns Aedion Limited that supplies accomodation to employees at the Yarrabee mine.

There is also a holding by Leopold Station of 4.94% that may have links directly or indirectly with Remold Holdings.

Yunega Mining Services was once 50% owned by Coalroc Contractor who reduced their interest to nil. They undertake work at the Ashton Mine. Who owns Yunega is rather obscure.


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## noirua (31 August 2009)

Felix Resources Annual Report for the year ending 30th June 2009:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090831/pdf/31kf0blvklv7gg.pdf


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## gfresh (31 August 2009)

That is a good result. Latest profit of 136.2cps makes current price the same as any other slightly undervalued stock on earnings with a P/E of 12.67x .. And this is during a global recession. No premium on the future really where Felix will be shipping millions more tonnes . Disgusting really Australians are selling out for so cheaply. 

As a point of comparison, Centennial is trading at $3.51 or 18x last years net profit... 

Whitehaven is trading at 17.64x FY09 earnings

Directors are very much selling the company short..


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## noirua (31 August 2009)

Felix Resources Annual Presentation of 2009 results and future forecasts - 'or perhaps a "For Sale" advertisement': http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090831/pdf/31kf22myrf1t28.pdf
Download 5.60MB


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## michael_selway (31 August 2009)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources Annual Presentation of 2009 results and future forecasts - 'or perhaps a "For Sale" advertisement': http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090831/pdf/31kf22myrf1t28.pdf
> Download 5.60MB




Hi yeah thats true, but not counter bid as yet :

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 51.8 134.5 56.1 109.8 
DPS 53.0 33.5 22.9 41.2 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (31 August 2009)

View of Felix Resources 2009 results and takeover situation:  http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=5684


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## noirua (2 September 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hi yeah thats true, but not counter bid as yet : MS




We may have to wait for the approval of Aussie regulators for Yanzhou's bid for Felix before any counter-bidders show their hand. Expected decision in the next 5 weeks.


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## noirua (2 September 2009)

Felix Resources are the only coal stock I've kept as I'm now no longer confident about the sector for the rest of the year.  Felix are a bit of a gamble on Yanzhou getting regulatory Aussie approval for the bid to go ahead.  However, if that bridge is crossed a better bid should emerge as others will see, in depressed coal markets, an opportunity in getting Felix's PCI, semi-soft coke and low cost Moolarben mines quite cheaply.


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## Quillan (3 September 2009)

I am not sure what you are getting at, Noirua? Surely whether clearance is given or not for Yanzhou's bid, it will not affect the position of a counter bidder?
Perhaps if it is not cleared, any other bidder may feel he does not have to bid as high as he might have done, if Yanzhou was still in the picture.
Have I misunderstood something?


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## noirua (4 September 2009)

Quillan said:


> I am not sure what you are getting at, Noirua? Surely whether clearance is given or not for Yanzhou's bid, it will not affect the position of a counter bidder?
> Perhaps if it is not cleared, any other bidder may feel he does not have to bid as high as he might have done, if Yanzhou was still in the picture.
> Have I misunderstood something?




Hi Quillan, If Yanzhou's bid is not approved then bids by Vale and Shenua would likewise have to be refused on similar grounds.  The Anglo Swiss Xstrata, the American Peabody and Noble could hardly be deemed exceptable if Yanzhou are not.

I could not see BHP Billiton or Rio Tinto wanting to get involved after the above.  
So I think Yanzhou's bid will have to be accepted by the Aussie Authorities as not doing so looks to be quite complicated.


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## noirua (5 September 2009)

Where do we stand now on the Yanzhou bid?  Well, there is the pull downwards of the thermal coal price that has plummeted over US$10 per tonne in the last month and the balance to this is interest in coalmines in Australia, by India and China.  Particularly India this week with about $1.5 billion laid down for stakes in mines in Queensland and NSW.

Interesting it would be to see if Felix Resources and Yanzhou Coal have a plan "B" if the bid situation falls apart. Stakes to be taken in Moolarben, Ashton and Yarrabee along with coal purchase deals.
A 29% stake in Moolarben, 9% in Ashton and 49% of Yarrabee could net Felix Resources about $450 - $550 million and allow a cash payout of around $2.00 to $2.50 a share in dividends and cash returns.  That would give the Felix directors a cash payout without selling stock.
Yanzhou could also buy AMCI's stake of 19.2% of Felix at around $18 a share.

Thus all would be happy and probably the Authorities Federal and local NSW.


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## noirua (5 September 2009)

noirua said:


> A 29% stake in Moolarben, 9% in Ashton and 49% of Yarrabee could net Felix Resources about $450 - $550 million and allow a cash payout of around $2.00 to $2.50 a share in dividends and cash returns.




Forgot to add that Yanzhou, in this guessed at situation, would also be required to pay about $160 million in forthcoming and past development costs on the mines. Figure on above mine valuation $450 - $550 million is probably a bit on the low side and may be nearer $700 million, who knows however in these dodgy market situations.


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## noirua (9 September 2009)

All quiet on the Western Front as Felix shareholders and PERHAPS potential bidders await a decision, one way or the other, on the bid by Yanzhou Coal Company.
Closing price of FLX stock was $17.47 against a bid price, including the 50c final dividend, of $18.50. Price still shows nothing for any counter-bid and a little negative on Septembers' decision on the bid go-ahead.


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## Quillan (10 September 2009)

noirua said:


> Hi Quillan, If Yanzhou's bid is not approved then bids by Vale and Shenua would likewise have to be refused on similar grounds.  The Anglo Swiss Xstrata, the American Peabody and Noble could hardly be deemed exceptable if Yanzhou are not.
> 
> I could not see BHP Billiton or Rio Tinto wanting to get involved after the above.
> So I think Yanzhou's bid will have to be accepted by the Aussie Authorities as not doing so looks to be quite complicated.




Hi Noirua, Thanks for your explanation, Silly me! It didn't occur that if Yanzhou was turned down it might prejudice other foreign bids. I was only thinking of OZ bids.
Have you slipped up on your latest post when you quote the figure of $18.50?
Surely the bid, including the October Dividend of 50 cents, totals $17.95, Have you conjured up another 50 cents for us?
If so, another Tinnie !!
Add the 5 cent cash value of the SA spin off, which I assume is valuing The SA propeties at the $10m cash injection, or say 5 cents a share. 
Would you hazard a guess of $100m on SA, just for the coal deposit? There's a reason the Directors wanted to hang on to it. After all, they own half of it approx.?


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## noirua (10 September 2009)

Quillan said:


> Hi Noirua, Thanks for your explanation, Silly me! It didn't occur that if Yanzhou was turned down it might prejudice other foreign bids. I was only thinking of OZ bids.
> Have you slipped up on your latest post when you quote the figure of $18.50?
> Surely the bid, including the October Dividend of 50 cents, totals $17.95, Have you conjured up another 50 cents for us?
> If so, another Tinnie !!
> ...




Hi Quillan, I've tried many things in life but conjuring is not one of them. 
The bid by Yanzhou includes two 50c dividends due in October (will only be paid on FIRB approval with the declared ***final dividend of 50c) and December, $16.95 cash due in December plus SACCS - totals $18.00.

There is in addition a ***final dividend of 50c, so Felix stock is cum dividend (at the moment) before going xd on the 9th October (on the books 15th October). Therefore $18 plus the final dividend of 50c = $18.50.

To clarify further, the ***first dividend of 50c (under the bid by Yanzhou - part of the $18 offer), will only be paid if Yanzhou get approval from their shareholders and from the Australian Foreign Investment Board.

The Yanzhou bid is really worth different amounts depending where in the world people reside or the residency choice made. 
Australians are not liable to tax on the fully franked dividends, so they are worth the full amount. Most other countries do not accept the franking situation on dividends, therefore UK residents for instance are liable to 20% tax or 32.5% tax on the dividend after the franking at 30% is deducted. 
Also capital gains tax varies in most countries, there being no capital gains tax in some, NZ and British Channel Islands etc.

This bid is therefore OK for some and not so good for others.


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## noirua (13 September 2009)

Thoughts are that Felix Resources and Xstrata are in a more co-operative position after agreeing water rights, shared use, and use over the Moolarben Project and the Ulan Longwall mine.
If rumours are proved correct that they are no longer interested in bidding for Lonmin then Felix Resources would be a better objective.
Felix directors are tied to the Yanzhou bid and forfeit $34 million if another superior bid is accepted.

Xstrata, the Anglo Swiss diversified miner, may consider a quote in Australia to allow a cash and stock alternative. Now thought to be favourites to counter-bid.

Xstrata's (90% owned) Ulan mine adjoins Felix's (80% owned) Moolarben project. Felix Resources Ashton mines (60% owned) in the Hunter are close to four of Xstrata's mines (Glendell, Narama, Ravenswork and Newpac).

Xstrata have made no comment on any interest recently in Felix Resources.


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## noirua (16 September 2009)

Yanzhou Coal Company (Controlled by the Chinese Government) had become concerned that their bid for Felix Resources was meeting resistance.  They have therefore re-entered their application by changing the buyer from Yancoal Australia Ltd., to their Australian subsidiary Austar Coal mine, a company purchased in 2004. Financing will be through the Sydney Branch of Bank of China (BOC).


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## noirua (17 September 2009)

The date for approval by the Australian Authorities for the bid by Yanzhou coal has been pushed out to 10th October and is now set to put a squeeze on the original timetable, set for the end of September.


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## noirua (20 September 2009)

BHP Billiton are earmarking about US$10 billion of their US$18 billion surplus on existing projects and new acquisitions. The company has earmarked 5 opportunities: http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE58I09S20090919


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## noirua (21 September 2009)

noirua said:


> The date for approval by the Australian Authorities for the bid by Yanzhou coal has been pushed out to 10th October and is now set to put a squeeze on the original timetable, set for the end of September.




The 30 day assessment period is in fact due to end on 11th October, having been pushed out by Yanzhou Coal having to resubmit their bid for Felix Resources by the regulatory authorities:  http://www.zibb.com/article/5521854/Felix+bid+held+up+by+FIRB


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## noirua (23 September 2009)

About three weeks or so old now is this article on Felix Resources Chairman Mr Travers Duncan:  http://www.equitiesmagazine.com/article_travers_duncan.php


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## gfresh (25 September 2009)

Talk over tougher FIRB criteria have led to Felix dropping significantly below the bid price today.. 

Might they request the bid from Yanzhou Coal to be scaled back to under 50% ? 

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...more-knockbacks-pd20090925-W7LP3?OpenDocument



> FIRB says China should expect more knockbacks
> 
> The Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) has given a rare insight into its decision making process, revealing that China should expect some future bids by its state-owned firms to be knocked back.
> 
> ...


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## noirua (25 September 2009)

gfresh said:


> Talk over tougher FIRB criteria have led to Felix dropping significantly below the bid price today..
> 
> Might they request the bid from Yanzhou Coal to be scaled back to under 50% ?




It does look as if this bid by Yanzhou (using Austar coal mine subsidiary) is treading water now.
The setup is:  State owned Yankuang Group have a controlling share in publicly quoted Yanzhou Coal Company (quoted in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Wall Street). Yanzhou own private subsidiary Yancoal Australia.  Yancoal Australia own subsidiary Austar Coal Mine. 
Yanzhou Coal are now using Austar Coal Mine, instead of Yancoal Australia, to bid for Felix Resources.

There is also concern that Yancoal Australia will want to use the LTCC form of intensive longwall caving to mine the Moolarben Underground Mine - close to the Great Dripping Wall and Goulburn River and National Park. 
The LTCC process requires using 20% more water and recovers more coal in larger seam widths. Plans by Yanzhou may be to increase the 4mtpa of coal mined by Felix Resources by up to 80%.
http://www.yancoalaustralia.com.au/company_profile.htm
http://www.austarcoalmine.com.au


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## noirua (28 September 2009)

The change of bidder to Austar Coal mine Pty was doubted in a "private message" to me. So the link to the information is provided below:
http://news.alibaba.com/article/det...00171365-1-coal-firm-alters-felix-buyout.html


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## Quillan (29 September 2009)

The FIRB wording of "some future bids" could be significant? It's a bit hard on Yanzhou to be told to resubmit its bid, which it has done, and then to be told later that we don't want you owning one of our precious resources.Hence why the word "future" maybe was used?
Of course we want it to be cleared and then for the white knight to come charging in.
If it isn't cleared, would that just leave BHP and Rio, or could Xstrata be in the frame, since they have a presence in Australia already, and the synergy of being neighbours could be influential?
Significant price recovery today, but could that be due to the announcement of Results?


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## noirua (30 September 2009)

Quillan said:


> The FIRB wording of "some future bids" could be significant? It's a bit hard on Yanzhou to be told to resubmit its bid, which it has done, and then to be told later that we don't want you owning one of our precious resources.Hence why the word "future" maybe was used?
> Of course we want it to be cleared and then for the white knight to come charging in.
> If it isn't cleared, would that just leave BHP and Rio, or could Xstrata be in the frame, since they have a presence in Australia already, and the synergy of being neighbours could be influential?
> Significant price recovery today, but could that be due to the announcement of Results?




Odds are increasing now, in the view of some, that this bid will be allowed with a few handcuffs attached on the UCC technology and limits on high grade thermal and semi-soft coke exports to China.

Directors have only pledged 30% of the companies stock to Yanzhou Coal. So it's up to AMCI 19.12% and three other large holders with 15% to hold the line and ask for more.
Yanzhou may add an extra dollar to the bid if no one else shows interest.

Hopefully Xstrata and Mitsubishi, partners on the next door Ulan mine, can see that their synergy savings are worth about $600 million over the life of the Moolarben mine. Worth about $3.20 extra. Looking for a counter bid of $19.30 cash against the $16.95 cash bid by Yanzhou.

$24 a share is the highest analysts price for Felix and I'd be most unhappy if we end up much shy of that.  That would be dividends of $1, SACCS 10c and $22.90 in cash.


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## awg (1 October 2009)

Just a small sidenote, when I rang Felix on 26th Aug to clarify the dividend matter, I was more than a little surprised to be put through to Brian Flannery.

Thinking about it now, and the questions  he asked me, (about the nature of my interest, told him truthfully just a private investor), I suspect he may have been expecting a call from a potential investor with MUCH larger pockets than me!  

He was most courteous nevertheless.


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## Quillan (1 October 2009)

To the CEO, Mr Brian Flannery.

Dear Brian,
I understand that there will be a franked 50 Cent dividend to be paid at the end of October.
Is this in addition to the Final Dividend declared before the offer from Yanzhou was received?
Clearly it should be, since the Final Dividend has nothing to do with the offer. Many have pointed to this confusion.

Deloitte's Report fails to clarify this,  and makes it worse by talking of further dividends [plural] payable later, probably in December.

It was my understanding that there would be a further dividend payable in December provided the deal was concluded.

I am sure most independent shareholders wish to see other bids materialising, not for reasons of greed, but because mining analysts are quite clear in their opinion.The concensus is that  the right value is about AUD24 per share.

Strange that. A discrepancy of 33% seems beyond the purported claim of "Fair".
It was interesting to note that as soon as the offer was announced, Yanzhou's share price went up considerably whilst Felix's went down,

The Market was confirming who has the better of the deal, so far. It was stated that the impact on Yanzhou's earnings in 2 years' time could be as much as 37%.

If Felix could buy an asset which would enhance earnings by that much in as little as 2 years, I am sure you would grab it with both hands.Therein lies the test of "fair value".

It would seem that Deloitte, advising Felix [and therefore its Shareholders], ignored this point.
I note that they are protected from any claims of professional shortcomings in respect of the Shareholders' interests.

Who ever heard of a bidding Company offering its final bid with its first opening salvo ? This tells me they will pay more if they have to, which will make a mockery of Deloitte's "fair valuation". I imagine Yanzhou is relying heavily on the Directors' recommended acceptance, to pull it off at the first shot?

Deloitte also tries to justify the valuation by pointing out that there have been no counter offers. It is self-evident that none will emerge until the FIRB has cleared, or thrown out the Yanzhou offer. Therefore I maintain this could mislead Shareholders into the belief that this is evidence the offer fully values our Company.

If the FIRB should decide a foreign bid is not in Australia's interest, this precludes many other Parties, and narrows the field considerably. But no Australian Company would be so foolish as to mount a counter bid, until the minefield is cleared.

Trying to pull the wool in this manner shows little respect for our Shareholders' intelligence to which Deloitte is appealing, and incidentally for which we, the  Shareholders are paying !!

Of course Deloitte had to decide Yanzhou's was a fair offer, because "he who pays the piper calls the tune".This was therefore a foregone conclusion.

Who ever heard of an " Independent Expert" paid by the Company being bid for, deciding  a bid was too low, and certainly one has never concluded an offer was too high !!

To say the bid was too low when the Directors have already recommended it, would make the Directors appear somewhat incompetent, so we can conclude that the Fee of $200,000 was wasted, even if it was mandatory to go through this charade.

The Directors recommended the bid as "fair" before their "Independent Expert" had given its opinion !! Is this meant to imply transparent market democracy?

To suggest any "Independent Expert" is independent in this context,  is risible.

The ASX and or the FIRB should establish a panel of Mining Experts to deal with situations like this, and whoever is chosen, it should be an independent choice, made by neither Party involved in the Bid. The costs should be borne equally by both Parties.This would make it genuinely independent and not the fait accompli which has been put to Shareholders today.

The argument that you, the Directors have endorsed the offer and therefore adds weight to it being a fair bid, could be riddled with holes.

Your motivations to accept, may be very different from the ordinary Shareholder, who is looking for full value for his/her investment, if it is to be snatched away and replaced with cash, which will mean tax has to be paid as well.

For this reason, many would prefer a 100% share offer from BHP.

The Directors [and any supporting major shareholders] are already fabulously wealthy, and as far as I know no details of the ongoing Terms of Service have been released, if the offer is successful. Therefore, there could be many reasons for recommending acceptance beyond the share valuation. I am not saying there are other considerations, merely it is a possibility with any takeover situation.

For the Directors, the offer is not just limited to the value of the Share offer, hence you have a different agenda from the Shareholders.

I am sure everything you have done is by the letter of the law as laid down by the ASX, and any other Regulatory Bodies.

I believe wholeheartedly that you have earned the wealth you have created, and the benefits which have therefore accrued to your Shareholders. You have grown Felix into a Company of which we are all very proud , which makes it all the more surprising that you should recommend the offer, at a price so far below that suggested by the Professional Mining Commentators.

Let me put a scenario to you.
What would be your response to the bid if you and all the Directors were in their 30s, with only limited personal Shareholdings and few other assets?

My bet is that you would all be saying "This bid is entirely inadequate. Please read our summary of the potential of the Company in the coming years, as set out in the Annual Report, and you will understand why we must be allowed to grow the Company and Shareholder value, as we have proved we can do to date. The best is yet to come !!

That is what Yanzhou believes !!

Sincerely,
"Quillan"


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## noirua (1 October 2009)

"Yanzhou May Hold Australian IPO after Felix Takeover":  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=atiuUjIX1ggo

+++++++++

Deloitte have left out a number of assets and interests held by Felix.  They also fail to mention an expected class A action pending by 5% holders in S.A.S.E.  There is also a possible class A action pending over former gold assets.


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## noirua (2 October 2009)

Hi Quillan, A long letter that covers a lot of the points made here and on other websites.
Unfortunately the Felix Board of Directors are bound to recommend the offer by Yanzhou Coal. Also, under a binding agreement they are not allowed to say anything deemed or otherwise contrary to the agreement. Therefore Mr Flannery's reply, if you get one, has to be supportive of Yanzhou's bid in all respects as agreed between both parties.

Other major and large shareholders are all making no comment on the bid situation. The only comment made by the Company Secretary, Mr Craig Smith, in a reply to a shareholder ended, "On the assumption that the deal goes through without any problems ...".

I have contacted three former directors of the company and one manager. Two preferred not to make any comment and though a third replied at length, ended by saying "I would prefer you not to put any of this info on any Bulletin Board". The fourth has moved on as he is no longer interested but was pleased to see certain 'rogues' had left the company.
I will post information on possible class A legal matters due to come to court concerning S.A.S.E. and a steel company. Once I've checked it carefully as legal jargon is a bit difficult at times.

Good luck on your letters to Felix - noi


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## noirua (7 October 2009)

Felix stock goes xd on Friday and the spinoff of SAC. The bid is then worth a 50c extra dividend and $16.95 sometime in the future - $17.45 in all.

Yanzhou have risen sharply since last weekend (8%) and Felix Resources stock seems to have traded in a narrow band for quite awhile. 
Coal futures going out to 2014 have lifted strongly with the gradual improvement in the 3 month delivery price out of Newcastle.

Felix should hopefully move out of this tight trading band and after going xd may push on through $18.00 a share.  The mining sector has been more strong across the pond of late and hopefully Felix will catchup and put pressure on the Yanzhou bid price.
Another reason for an improvement is that Deloitte used a US$70 per tonne price in giving their fair value for Felix, and that price has been exceeded already.

Directors Messrs Flannery, Mende, and Duncan seem to have bought into a quite low price for this bid for Felix.  Some earlier estimates were around $20.50 and hopefully we will get to this price eventually.


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## noirua (7 October 2009)

Several reports show that Yanzhou Coal, if they are successful in taking over Felix Resources, will re-list the company including Austar Coal Mine in a few years time.
Due to this, it now becomes an option not to accept the bid, especially for those with capital gains tax issues. Best to hold on for a few years as Felix Resources, in my view, is worth far more than the present cash offer of $16.95.


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## Quillan (7 October 2009)

noirua said:


> Several reports show that Yanzhou Coal, if they are successful in taking over Felix Resources, will re-list the company including Austar Coal Mine in a few years time.
> Due to this, it now becomes an option not to accept the bid, especially for those with capital gains tax issues. Best to hold on for a few years as Felix Resources, in my view, is worth far more than the present cash offer of $16.95.




This requires some clarification. Are you suggesting, Noirua, that a share alternative may now be offered, into which Austar may be injected later?
Presumably, if  shares are offered in a newly created Australian quoted Company, 1-1 for shares held in Felix, then the Directors who have accepted the cash bid would then be released from their commitment, since the Terms had been altered?
Suppose 51% or more of the Shareholders elect for shares in the new Company?
Suppose the Directors have second thoughts about accepting $17.45 and opt for new shares instead?
The takeover would have failed, as the status quo would remain, with Yanzhou only holding the shares surrendered by the few accepting the cash offer? 
What would then be the position of the extra 50 cent dividend payable upon the successfull conclusion?
Am I missing something?
Could you tell us Noirua where these suggestions are coming from? I would like to copy my questions here to them for their consideration.


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## michael_selway (7 October 2009)

noirua said:


> Coal futures going out to 2014 have lifted strongly with the gradual improvement in the 3 month delivery price out of Newcastle.




Hi Noirua, whats the 2014 futures price atm?

Also where do you get coal futures details from? 

Thanks again

MS


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## noirua (8 October 2009)

noirua said:


> Several reports show that Yanzhou Coal, if they are successful in taking over Felix Resources, will re-list the company including Austar Coal Mine in a few years time.
> Due to this, it now becomes an option not to accept the bid, especially for those with capital gains tax issues. Best to hold on for a few years as Felix Resources, in my view, is worth far more than the present cash offer of $16.95.






Quillan said:


> This requires some clarification. Are you suggesting, Noirua, that a share alternative may now be offered, into which Austar may be injected later?
> Presumably, if  shares are offered in a newly created Australian quoted Company, 1-1 for shares held in Felix, then the Directors who have accepted the cash bid would then be released from their commitment, since the Terms had been altered?
> Suppose 51% or more of the Shareholders elect for shares in the new Company?
> Suppose the Directors have second thoughts about accepting $17.45 and opt for new shares instead?
> ...




Hi Quillan et al, This link from Bloomberg gives details: "Yanzhou May Hold Australian IPO After Felix Takeover":  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7di1XKxneW8

There are various other links giving details including from Hong Kong and China. Best you use your search engines for that.

Yanzhou Coal have said that they are making an off market bid for all of Felix Resources stock, and Felix Resources would be de-listed from the ASX.

However, Yanzhou require 90% of Felix Resources to be able to buyout the remaining shareholders. If they get 89.9% or less, for instance, would they be content with that?  Would the FLX quote continue?  

At the moment I intend to reject the offer. Though, only myself and about 32 others are thinking of doing the same, and we only speak for about 380,000 shares (0.1934%) - trusting people haven't exaggerated their holdings.
So it's all in the hands of AMCI (19.2%) and former directors, CFO and two managers (23.2%) - 30.3% are current directors accepting Yanzhou's offer.


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## noirua (8 October 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, whats the 2014 futures price atm?
> 
> Also where do you get coal futures details from?
> 
> Thanks again MS




Hi ms, This is the information on obtaining futures etc., pricing of coal.  It comes from a poster elsewhere dempsey2 and this poster usually deals with this. May come up "error" if not a member.

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/ReportCentre.shtml?reportId=10

Site may not link automatically, unless contracted. So cut and paste. If not "monthly, quarters, calenders", "submit"

The ASX are increasingly gearing up on coal futures (Sydney Futures Ltd., FOB Newcastle), and you can also access at the New York Mercantile Exchange and Nymex.


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## noirua (9 October 2009)

Futures for gc Newcastle Futures for delivery quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4 was US$103.25 per metric tonne
For thermal coal value benchmark.

Alternative access to details (needs a bit of clicking around):  https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml
Then click on "market data" - "ice live" - "settlements/ EOD"
Then click around a bit and you will get there.

The page may reject being a favourite when you get there.  You will know you're there when the link in the previous post is in the link at the top.


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## michael_selway (9 October 2009)

noirua said:


> Futures for gc Newcastle Futures for delivery quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4 was US$103.25 per metric tonne
> For thermal coal value benchmark.
> 
> Alternative access to details (needs a bit of clicking around):  https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml
> ...




Thanks looks good

*ICE Coal Futures Daily Settlement Prices for Thursday, 08 October 2009
ICE Rotterdam ICE Richards Bay ICE globalCOAL NEWC ® 
Oct'09 $72.45 $63.35 $71.95 
Nov'09 $73.10 $66.15 $73.05 
Q4'09 $73.03 $65.40 $72.93 
Q1'10 $77.02 $70.10 $76.02 
Q2'10 $81.37 $72.78 $77.83 
Q3'10 $85.72 $76.30 $79.90 
2010 $83.40 $74.77 $78.97 
2011 $98.48 $89.39 $89.56 
2012 $107.65 $97.71 $95.96 
2013 $114.31 $105.06 $100.72 *

Source: ICE Futures Europe


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## Quillan (10 October 2009)

noirua said:


> Hi Quillan et al, This link from Bloomberg gives details: "Yanzhou May Hold Australian IPO After Felix Takeover":  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7di1XKxneW8
> 
> There are various other links giving details including from Hong Kong and China. Best you use your search engines for that.
> 
> ...




Hi Noirua, you can add my 55,000 shares to the rejection pile, and hope that others will declare on this site.Yes, it is my genuine holding. Perhaps some publicity somewhere would stimulate others to add their holdings to your group?. Could we not form an informal group and keep in touch? How about contacting the largest shareholders up to say 5%?
It could be a useful weapon when a counter bid arrives--hopefully !!
How did this group of 33 form?


----------



## noirua (10 October 2009)

Quillan said:


> Hi Noirua, you can add my 55,000 shares to the rejection pile, and hope that others will declare on this site.Yes, it is my genuine holding. Perhaps some publicity somewhere would stimulate others to add their holdings to your group?. Could we not form an informal group and keep in touch? How about contacting the largest shareholders up to say 5%?
> It could be a useful weapon when a counter bid arrives--hopefully !!
> How did this group of 33 form?




I've been a shareholder for over 26 years and over 10 years on the internet, and some of the 32 are those I met at meetings. Despite building up my holding over many years, I prefer to not state how many shares I have as there is no way of proving it. Most shares were purchased from many rights issues, and the rest in 1999 and 2003, and some sold in 1997 in the Bre-X fueled run up.

The vote is in the hands of the major holders, and excluding AMCI (19.12%), they are all former White Energy shareholders (48.2%) and may well all act together and accept Yanzhou's bid.
Us small holders do not matter, though we can let our feelings be known.  Let's face it though, if a counter bid arrives then all is well, if not, basically we have no say in the matter.

AS to the four major holders, who are former directors and manager of Felix, they are not making any comment until they receive the formal offer documents.


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## noirua (12 October 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Thanks looks good
> 
> *ICE Coal Futures Daily Settlement Prices for Thursday, 08 October 2009
> ICE Rotterdam ICE Richards Bay ICE globalCOAL NEWC ®
> ...




Yes indeed m_s, and it looks as if we'll see even higher prices in the coming weeks and hopefully a rise in the 2009 thermal price.  It looks as if Rotterdam and Richards Bay are leading the way up.
Maybe we'll see these higher prices impact on the Felix Resources share price at $16.75xd/xb (bid by Yanzhou worth $17.45).

So far the market hasn't seen the Felix stock price worth more than Yanzhou's bid.  Crossing my fingers that that is about to change.


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## noirua (12 October 2009)

Yanzhou Coal have again re-submitted their application to takeover Felix Resources as the FIRB announces no decision today. It may take up to 30 more days for a decision to be reached.


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## noirua (12 October 2009)

noirua said:


> Yanzhou Coal have again re-submitted their application to takeover Felix Resources as the FIRB announces no decision today. It may take up to 30 more days for a decision to be reached.




Yanzhou Bid Approval for Felix Delayed: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page38?oid=90582&sn=Detail


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## noirua (15 October 2009)

Felix Resources remains for sale with Xstrata back in the running after dropping the Anglo American merger proposal, for the time being.

More than a year has passed since MD Mr Brian Flannery put Felix up for sale.  Shareholders remain mystified as to why they want to sell and why they caved in and recommended the $16.95 cash from Yanzhou?????????????

On the shelf still are Felix resources with the for sale sign covered up, and the shareholders, bored with events, may yet vote this Yanzhou bid down.


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## noirua (16 October 2009)

Moolarben Coal Mine water deal with Wilpinjong Coal Mine and Ulan Coal Mine approved:  http://www.optuszoo.com.au/news/35429/westernplains/mine-water-pipeline-gets-green-light.html


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## Quillan (19 October 2009)

Following my Post #1001 and with particular reference to my last paragraph. I feel we are being sold down the river. Just when there is reckoned to be a large increase in the $ value of all natural resources, we are selling them cheap to the Chinese.
Brian Flannery would never entertain such stupidity if he was not so rich. Therefore I maintain the judgement of the Board in recomending this bid is seriously flawed, and based solely on the personal considerations of the interests of the Directors.
This extract from Money and Markets, an American Newsletter, from this weekend's edition, illustrates how serious the dollar problem is.:
I can thoroughly recomment the financial wisdom dispalyed in this publication. Martin Weiss is highly thought of in Washington.
===========================================================

"Make no mistake about it ”” the world's monetary system is on the verge of dramatically changing. And the chief reason behind it all is ...

Washington's Tower of Debts

The total amount of U.S. government debts and obligations is far greater than what most people realize.

Uncle Sam is saddled with ...

    * An officially recognized national debt of $11.8 trillion, which will likely exceed $12 trillion sometime this month.

    * Unfunded national obligations of $104 trillion!

    * Another $9 trillion in cumulative deficits over the next ten years.

    * Plus another trillion dollars for health care reform, no matter what bill finally makes it through Congress.

Grand total: $125.8 TRILLION of public debts!

All told, that means that each and every household in America is now indirectly responsible for more than 1 MILLION DOLLARS in government debts and obligations. And that assumes no new government spending, no new social programs, no new wars, no new economic disasters or bailouts. Worse, it assumes no new deficits in the meantime!

*Put another way, even if the government could somehow pay off that debt at the rate of $100 million PER DAY, it would take 3,446 years before the total government debts and obligations are paid off.*

*Even if Washington were to pay off $1 billion per day, it would still take nearly 345 years to pay off those debts!*

Patently unsustainable debts? Yes! Patently unpayable? You bet it is!

Of course, Washington will never default outright on its obligations. But it doesn't have to. By devaluing the dollar, Washington can effectively pay off its debts with a cheaper currency.

This is why the dollar is falling ... and why savvy investors all over the world are beginning to lose confidence in Washington and our currency ... *and why it's all leading to a massive renewed bull market in natural resources, especially gold.*

Make no mistake about it: By doing nothing, your finances become a victim of a falling dollar ”” a currency whose purchasing power has already lost more than 36 percent of its value in the last decade ... will lose a lot more purchasing power in the months ahead ... and eventually lose its status as the world's reserve currency, ultimately replaced by a new world currency.

Bottom line:

If you're appalled as our government's deficits explode ”” up a staggering 770 percent since 2007 alone ”” and outraged that our leaders are still finding ways to spend even more ...

If you're horrified that Washington has more than doubled the national debt to nearly $12 trillion since 2000 ”” and sickened by the likelihood that the Obama administration will double it again ...

If you're terrified that the $104 TRILLION our government now owes us through Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits programs can NEVER be paid ...

If you're losing sleep over how this great debt default will impact your savings, investments and retirement ...

It's time to take action now!
Larry Edelson
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*[I have given the credits as required, to reproduce this copy.]
*
About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

    This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.


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## noirua (19 October 2009)

Hi Quillan et al, My biggest problems at the moment are a dodgy curtain rail that is threatening to fall down and a very wobbly shelf.  Neither put up by me.

On Americas problems, as your article says, lots and lots of debts.  However, like companies, they also have lots and lots of assets and many of these are in other countries. China has several trillion US dollars and are spending a lot of these in Asia and the Far East.
Also, many Americans work abroad and send back foreign currencies.

So basically, don't worry about it. Stay 70% to 80% in cash, preferably several different currencies, and you can smile.

Anyway, that's all a bit off topic really.  I am battling away against this Yanzhou bid for Felix and despite being a very small minnow, hope to hold things up a bit. A few larger fish (not that big though) seem to be siding with the minnows - watch events in the coming weeks.

Good fortune my friends, and keep smiling.


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## gfresh (19 October 2009)

Not that my small holding really has any influence, but for the record I've also rejected the takeover. Even though it would be in my best interests short term, for the sake of the country I think such a large resource is being sold way too cheaply, for a bidder that *knows* they are getting things at a bargain price, which they will milk for all its worth in future years. 

Felix seems to be a fairly well run company, it's a shame the directors seem to have "had enough" and have thrown in the towel it seems. 

Although I was thinking - maybe in their position they can see forsee the future direction of the coal industry under our coal/"emission taxed" future here in Australia?


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## Quillan (20 October 2009)

Thanks Noirua, I am not worried about the plummeting dollar. If its price is halved, it still leaves a halved massive debt, but that should mean a much higher coal price in $ terms.

If I have read the Document right, the approval of the Scheme requires 50% of shareholders present at the meeting, voting, with Proxies etc, a total of 75% of the Issued Capital, in favour of the Scheme

Note the wording does not say, "if you vote against".but "if you do not vote in favour." All very subtle language couched to favour acceptance, and certainly not impartial.

Here's what Reuters UK was saying today about Richards Bay future coal prices as reported on Global Coal.

"The price of coal delivered to northwest Europe may climb to more than 100 a ton by the middle of next year, Schels wrote. That price rose 1.6% last week to 73.60 a ton, McCloskey data show. It has slid 38% over the past 12 months. India faces a coal shortage and state-owned Coal India Ltd. is seeking to buy overseas mines. China, the world’s most populous nation, uses and produces more coal than any other country."

That's a potential rise of 35.87% per tonne in the next 12 months. What would that do to Felix's share price next year? We will probably never know.

Does a 75% Share acceptance by Felix Holders then require a 90% acceptance of the Yanzhou bid, to become unconditional, as Noirua has suggested?

If the acceptances did not reach 90%,[Noirua's figure] then all those who did accept would be paid out, leaving those who had refused as minority shareholders in the still quoted Felix.This is a recipe for manipulation, and a squeeze on the recalcitrant minority. Slash the dividend, and up the "expenses", to lower the share price, then Yanzhou or its agents pick us off even more cheaply.

However, if someone acquires a stake of more than 20%, I gather the whole ball game changes. Perhaps Noirua is working on this !!

Leave the curtain rail Noirua, and give us the benefit of your thoughts, please. Of course, we realise this would not constitute Financial Advice, merely a Shareholder's opinion.


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## noirua (20 October 2009)

Hi Quillan et al, From what I can see from all this information we have. It looks as if  Felix Resources directors are taking this bid situation through the courts, so as to give Austar Coal mine the right to take our shares. A form of compulsory purchase order, though that's not the legal term.


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## noirua (20 October 2009)

gfresh said:


> Not that my small holding really has any influence, but for the record I've also rejected the takeover. Even though it would be in my best interests short term, for the sake of the country I think such a large resource is being sold way too cheaply, for a bidder that *knows* they are getting things at a bargain price, which they will milk for all its worth in future years.
> 
> Felix seems to be a fairly well run company, it's a shame the directors seem to have "had enough" and have thrown in the towel it seems.
> 
> Although I was thinking - maybe in their position they can see forsee the future direction of the coal industry under our coal/"emission taxed" future here in Australia?




Looks as if what you are saying could well be right.  It could also be, that health might be an issue and the AMCI banking factor.  Looks as if Messrs Duncan, Flannery and Mende are determined to sell.

I have sent emails and information to likely bidders. The best answer I got back was from Xstrata, "Thank You", so much for that.


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## zaz (23 October 2009)

FIRB APPROVAL FOR BID

With approval out the way the coast is clear for alternate bids. If there is going to be any action it will occur over the next 4 weeks. Given the approval i'd handicap an alternate bid at 70%;
a) The Yanzhou FIRB conditions are crazy so a higher bidder might actually have a chance of winning. With better conditions Yanzhou was more likely to dig their heals in,
b) The deal is too cheap.

The directors got a free put (reserve price) on this business at a tough time. It doesn't look all that wise right now but if this is as compelling as we think it is then more bids will come. I think they deserve more credit than some of the recent posts.


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## noirua (24 October 2009)

zaz said:


> FIRB APPROVAL FOR BID
> 
> With approval out the way the coast is clear for alternate bids. If there is going to be any action it will occur over the next 4 weeks. Given the approval i'd handicap an alternate bid at 70%;
> a) The Yanzhou FIRB conditions are crazy so a higher bidder might actually have a chance of winning. With better conditions Yanzhou was more likely to dig their heals in,
> ...




We'll just have to sit and wait a while longer.  So far, it has been 26 years and 25 weeks for me and there is the serious capital gains tax factor to consider.  

Worth of Felix may be more for Xstrata/Mitsubishi at their adjacent Ulan mine, though they have loads of coal already, as have nearby Peabody at their nearby Wilpinjong mine. BHP have lots of coal and are developing a 15mtpa mine in the Hunter. 
Shenhua wont bid against a fellow Chinese government controlled company.  Noble Group have other interests and are too small to take on much more. 

Anglo could try a punt at Felix Resources as this would annoy Xstrata at their Ulan Mine.  Anglo and Xstrata directors are very much at war. 

India is also a possibility now and their are several companies and tie ups that could be interested. 

Lend me $1 billion and I'll put the cat amongst the pigeons! I did see $24 mentioned through Bloomberg a while back and that level may remain as a roof offer now.

Sadly I feel the small investor has been trampled on by the Felix Resources acceptance of a floor bid for the company. Mr Brian Flannery stands to pocket $520 million out of this and retains other interests in the company. 

I remain very dejected by events so far.


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## noirua (26 October 2009)

Felix Resources stock managed $17.41 (636,000 shares traded in first 30 minutes) this morning against a Yanzhou bid of $16.95 and Felix Resources extra dividend of 50c worth $17.45.
This does show markets expect just a bit extra from this bid what ever happens - points to about $18 against $17.45. Some hope it seems after all.


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## Quillan (26 October 2009)

noirua said:


> Felix Resources stock managed $17.41 (636,000 shares traded in first 30 minutes) this morning against a Yanzhou bid of $16.95 and Felix Resources extra dividend of 50c worth $17.45.
> This does show markets expect just a bit extra from this bid what ever happens - points to about $18 against $17.45. Some hope it seems after all.




I can't agree with your assessment Noirua. Those buying in the market this morning at around $17.40 have very little to lose with a floor at $17.45. I would say they are punting on any bid from anyone to put the cat amongst the pigeons. It's just a punt, with no expectation of anything.
If the market believed a serious counter offer was likely, the shares would be at a premium on the Yanzhou total value of $17.45, in my opinion.


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## Quillan (26 October 2009)

*More thoughts on Monday's dealings. MarketWatch says  1.5 million shares changed hands. That's a lot of small punters buying? Maybe not.
It was in volumes of 5000 or less, except early on when 250,000 were dealt.

If Yanzhou thinks it will have to make a higher bid, it makes sense to mop up as many shares as it can in the market at $17.45 or less.

Alternatively, if a new bidder has decided to come in, there will be a good opportunity in the next month to buy up all the shares of those who think it is not worth waiting to collect the $17.45, when 50 cents of that may be partly franked, and need not be paid until next March.

Monday's share price action certainly suggested this could be the case, with the price rock steady at $17.40-41 all day whilst this large volume changed hands.

It looks like classic instructions to bid for any shares
that come on to the market at this price.

Either way, it makes a mockery of the Yanzhou bid being fair value. Clearly small investors, Institutions, or one or more new players are happy to buy at what amounts to the bid price. It will be interesting to see if this pattern is maintained in the days and weeks before the December decision time.
Any thoughts ?*


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## noirua (26 October 2009)

Quillan said:


> *More thoughts on Monday's dealings. MarketWatch says  1.5 million shares changed hands. That's a lot of small punters buying? Maybe not.
> It was in volumes of 5000 or less, except early on when 250,000 were dealt.
> 
> If Yanzhou thinks it will have to make a higher bid, it makes sense to mop up as many shares as it can in the market at $17.45 or less.
> ...




This offer by Yanzhou Coal is an "off market bid". Therefore Yanzhou (through subsidiary Austar Coal mine) are not allowed to buy any shares in the market.

There is a vote of Felix shareholders on 8th December 2009 to approve a scheme for compulsory purchase of stock by Austar Coal mine. If 75% vote in favour, then, Felix Resources must notify the court in Canberra and they will basically rubber stamp this compulsory purchase. 
No need for us to move a muscle at that point as Yanzhou will automatically own all the stock.


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## Quillan (27 October 2009)

Thanks for putting me right on the"off market" situation, Noirua.In the past 2 days nearly 3 million shares have been traded. So who is buying these shares?

We can appreciate who is selling,as I stated in the last 2 messages.Are we to assume that private investors are responsible for the purchases? Surely not in this kind of volume?

The sellers yesterday, presumably judging by what was the bid price throughout the day, were easily accommodated, and the price range was only about 7 cents.That's a lot of support, considering it is only just below the total bid price of $17.45, including the special dividend due on completion, so there is little incentive for arbitrage.

Bear in mind that this final dividend may not be fully franked,so the final Yanzhou price could be 10 cents or more below the $17.45.Yesterday's sellers could have been selling at what turns out to be the full final offer price of maybe $17.35?

I believe some entity is building a position, knowing they don't have to make a bid until just prior to 8th December. They know this is virtually a ceiling price until then, unless there is considerable buying pressure beforehand.


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## noirua (27 October 2009)

Quillan said:


> Thanks for putting me right on the"off market" situation, Noirua.In the past 2 days nearly 3 million shares have been traded. So who is buying these shares?
> 
> We can appreciate who is selling,as I stated in the last 2 messages.Are we to assume that private investors are responsible for the purchases? Surely not in this kind of volume?
> 
> ...



It seems more likely that you were right in concluding that small shareholders see a no lose situation in buying Felix stock. The dividend should be fully franked and some Aussies can claim back part of the franking. That doesn't apply to foreigners who can't claim back franking and may be taxed on the non-franked part of the dividend.

As to a company or consortium building up a stake. They would need to get to the 6.25% or 12.5 million shares level quickly. I can't see any signs of picking off the fence, except perhaps in very early trading.


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## Quillan (28 October 2009)

Yes, but if they have already decided to make higher bid prior to 8th December, any shares they can pick up around this price between now and then, is saving them money.
This is not wishful thinking on my part. Each daily pattern of the highs and lows suggests someone is accumulating shares. With such a small spread each day, on relatively large volume, can small investors taking a punt be responsible for 3.7m shares in the past 3 days? A total investment of about $65 million?
The normal daily spread before the FIRB approval announcement was at least 50 cents, often on volume of 500,000 or less.
When I see 250,000 shares marked as a sell, traded within a 15 minute period, according to MarketWatch, this doesn't look like you and me mopping these up. 
Any bidder knows the price will stay around the $17.40 level, unless an aggressive purchaser comes in.Then we will know almost for certain that a new bid is forthcoming.
I presume the 6.25% level is a level at which a declared interest has to 
be made? That's about 12m shares. At the present daily volume, assuming "they" manage to acquire 500,000 daily, they should just about get there before the 8th December. 
If accumulation is happening, I guess it could be a third party confident he may have a bargaining chip to use against the real bidder, but if someone has decided to bid, they will be accumulating now.
Who knows? Someone working inside the potential bid company, will know what is happening. As long as any info can't be traced back, he or she could have sold the info to who knows who?
I'm just stirring it up a bit !!


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## noirua (28 October 2009)

Interesting thoughts Quillan. Any counter bidder may have to line up partners to take a percentage interest in Yarrabee and Moolarben mines. Markets are a bit week at the moment despite the thermal coal price moving back over AU$80 per tonne.
Xstrata could still bid with partner Mitsubishi, though Xstrata may only want the Moolarben and Ashton mines. Xstrata have a big $1 billion interest for a new port in QLD.
http://www.ulancoal.com.au


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## Quillan (29 October 2009)

Perhaps you wrote that before the Quarterly came out, Noirua? 
Yarrabee on target to increase production by 1mtpa. 
Ashton production up 35% on previous Quarter.
2 new long term semi-soft coking contracts with Chinese mills.
Quarterly sales up 21%. 
Stocks increased to 1.4mt, worth more than US$100m.
New Bank Finance facility of $200m in place.
Thermal prices up about 15% to $80.
None of these were known about or were certain at the time of the announcement of Yanzhou's offer, and presumably Deloitte would still say "There have been no material changes" since they made their "Fair Value" Report, because that is what they are paid to say, even at the cost of us shareholders who paid their fee.
Let's hope BHP, Xstrata, Vale et al, see it differently and recognise this as a fantastic opportunity to buy assets which are still in the preliminary stages of the coming explosion in tonnage to be produced.
Any bets on an Indian Company to come charging over the horizon?

TaTa for now !!


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## noirua (29 October 2009)

Fair comment Quillan, though the mining stock slide in prices will not help much and Xstrata's 9.4% fall doesn't help either.

The possible bidders must be concerned about the strict conditions given to Yanzhou in their bid for Felix. This favours Australia and not us shareholders hoping for a counter bid.

Indian bid, no chance I reckon whilst hoping you are right at the same time.

All bidders will be put off now and it looks like Xstrata/Mitsubishi, Anglo American, Peabody and BHP left in the running.


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## noirua (29 October 2009)

As you say Quillan, the bids are persistently in a small range between $17.35 and $17.40.  This has continued today and their are lots of small offers taking these bids again in the first hour of trading. I may buy a few when I go back in a moment. Bought a few at $17.38, took a while though, most trades are going through at $17.36. It may be catching, but it feels as if someone is there picking up stock quite quickly, or ...


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## noirua (29 October 2009)

noirua said:


> As you say Quillan, the bids are persistently in a small range between $17.35 and $17.40.  This has continued today and their are lots of small offers taking these bids again in the first hour of trading. I may buy a few when I go back in a moment. Bought a few at $17.38, took a while though, most trades are going through at $17.36. It may be catching, but it feels as if someone is there picking up stock quite quickly, or ...




A boring post really but if you want to sell Felix stock at around $17.36 there appears to be a buyer sitting there. Price has been between $17.36 and $17.38 for one hour now. 
Not a suggestion you should sell but it seems very strange, we shall see. I'm gambling now on a counter-bid.


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## Quillan (30 October 2009)

Flannery's address at today's AGM reads like a CEO defending his Company against an unwelcome bidder. He uses the acronym GFC, standing for the "Great Future For Coal".

He goes on to say that in the greatest recession since 1929, Australian coal sales boomed in the past 12 months, and that China turned from being a net exporter of coal to a 70 million tonne net importer.

He pointed out all the projects we have in the pipeline, which will add to the value of Felix.

Many US Financial Newsletters point to coal as one of the booming Sectors in the years ahead, particularly with the explosion in demand from China and India.

We all know how well Flannery and his Board performed in the past and particularly last year, with really sparkling Results. For that we are all truly appreciative.

But to walk out at this point, removing these assets from shareholders who most probably would be very happy to remain as supporters of the Company, seems pretty odd to me.

We know what the Market thinks of the Bid. It marked Yanzhou up considerably, implying we had been stitched up !! 

However, although the Board is not permitted to sing the praises of Felix as an investment whilst the bid has not been finalised by both sets of shareholders. Flannery is doing his very best to exhibit our goods in the market to all the possible bidders, via his address at the AGM today !!

In his heart of hearts I am sure he is praying for BHP or whoever, from OZ, to come to the rescue.

I am keeping a tally of the daily volume. In the past 5 days it has averaged 1.27m shares, almost all posted as sellers. Yet the price doesn't flinch, and today the spread became even tighter, despite nearly a million shares being traded in an hour.

Of the free float of about 100m Shares, excluding Board holdings, more than 6m have changed hands in 5 days. Is it really likely these are being bought up by small investors?

I don't think so. For there to be such a tight 1 or 2 cent spread, with a million shares changing hands, points strongly to a very willing purchaser, with instructions to his brokers to take up all stock which becomes available.

That's how I read it.


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## noirua (30 October 2009)

You just about summed it all up really Quillan as Felix Resources is bound to change hands now whatever we do. The results only matter to a bidder and the presentation seemed to, as you infer, be a come and get us effort whilst supporting the Yanzhou bid. If I represented Yanzhou I might be a bit miffed by all this.

I agree now with your original thoughts earlier in the week that someone is sitting buying all the stock very quietly without pushing it up that much.  I watched trading for about 4.5 hours yesterday and bought a few shares over that time, though always bidding at the price offered, as the gannet was there all day.


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## noirua (31 October 2009)

Yanzhou Coal must be watching trading in Felix Resources very closely indeed.  Whether a counter bid arrives or not they may well be thinking of increasing their offer.  All it needs is for a few big holders of stock to hold out and the whole bid situation falls into disarray. 

Present trading in Felix finished the week at $17.38 and this is 43c above the $16.95 offered by Yanzhou.  [the extra 50c dividend is due anytime up to March 2010 and is not part of the bid paid for by Yanzhou]
Yanzhou may, or certainly should, consider raising their offer considerably and immediately to head off a counter bid that may come within days.


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## Quillan (2 November 2009)

My Email sent to GlobalCoal. It was acknowledged with the comment
"Interesting indeed !!"
We need to keep up the pressure and the contacts wherever possible.
Please feel free to quote this email to any Press outlets with whom you may be in contact.

"I believe a new bidder is accumulating stock in Felix. In the past 5 days almost all trades have been marked at the bid price, yet the price has not budged. Volume has averaged 1.27 milllion shares a day, yet the spread has been only 1 or 2 cents.
This can hardly be arbitrage buyers because the traded price is only about 6 cents below the Yanzhou bid price, and that assumes that the 50 cent special dividend to be paid if the deal goes through, has no tax deduction, and takes no account of dealing expenses if you are buying  today.

There is a total of AUD17.45 to be paid, and 50cents of that, the special dividend needn't be paid until March, and could have tax deducted.
Present share price is $17.39.

Despite these figures over 1m shares of the free float of about 100m is changing hands daily, with no downward reaction in the price.
Smells to me of brokers for "X" being instructed to pick up any stock coming on the market.

Decision day is the 8th of December for Felix shareholders to vote on the Offer. I expect a counter bid shortly before that date, from an Australian Company, probably, because the conditions already imposed on Yanzhou by the FIRB are pretty onerous on any foreign bidder.

Mining analysts were speculating a month ago that the bid price should be around $24. Since then conditions in the market for coal have  improved and Felix has signed 2 long term coking contracts in China.

If you read Felix CEO Flannery's AGM address last Friday, you would think he was defending the Company against a hostile bid, instead of having already accepted this undervalued Yanzhou offer!! However it was his last chance to legitimately open his mouth before the December vote, as he is in purdah from now on !!
So on Friday he was hanging out the assets and potential for all to see !!


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## noirua (4 November 2009)

A concise excellent post Quillan, though I was unclear about why it was sent to Global Coal?

Last weeks trading was about 6.6 million shares and Monday trading was light, and today trading is coming close to grinding to a halt. Maybe it's just a case that foreign holders with about 22 million shares are not bothering to sell with high fees and exchange rate charges. That leaves only 37 million shares left to change hands and the cash-in-brigade have mostly sold out.
Another reason could be, one or more people or companies deciding it's a no lose gamble on a bid in the next 3 weeks, or a company building up stock to bid  - or at least that's what a lot of us hope.

Watch and wait now as there is nothing else to lose as Felix Resources shifts towards Chinese ownership.


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## Quillan (4 November 2009)

I sent it to GlobalCoal partly because that is where I check the weekly Newcastle coal prices, and also because it is my impression that they have their finger on the pulse of every piece of world news on coal trading. I judge that by the news items they carry daily, which included all details if the Yanzhou bid, and who knows, they might have speculated on my comments for others to see.
They have developed a platform for trading Spot coal, and the London Office always answers my emails promptly,and enthusiastically.
I don't have the connections that Australian Shareholders have with the media there, so I leave that to you !!


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## noirua (6 November 2009)

With just 32 days to go there now appears to be just BHP Billiton and Xstrata in the race for Felix resources. All we can do is sit and wait.


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## noirua (9 November 2009)

noirua said:


> With just 32 days to go there now appears to be just BHP Billiton and Xstrata in the race for Felix resources. All we can do is sit and wait.



Down now to just 30 days to the 8th December 'The Scheme' Vote.  They reckon only BHP Billiton and Xstrata are still left in the frame as possible bidders, though the Indian Companies led by Vale have seen a strong currency favour versus China and may still be in with a shout.

BHP know from publicity that many shareholders are looking for a share alternative and Xstrata may still offer an LSE share swap to those who want it.

Yanzhou (bidders for Felix through subsidiary Austar Coal mine), have been maimed by the FIRB restrictions and may not be interested in going all that much higher.
Xstrata may well have their partner at Ulan, Mitsubishi, ready to buy a chunk of Moolarben.  The synergies gained give Xstrata an upper-hand now and it would be surprising if they pass this one over.
BHP Billiton must be umming and arring over this one and know they would need to price a bid right. Can afford to pass it over though, who knows?


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## noirua (11 November 2009)

Felix Resources have announced that the expected 50c per share second final dividend will be paid on 9th December to all shareholders on the register on 25th November 2009.

Felix shares rose 16c to $17.56 which is above the $17.45 ($16.95 + 50c present dividend declared) equivalent share price offer by Yanzhou Coal (through subsidiary Austar Coal Mine).


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## Quillan (11 November 2009)

So somebody is buying stock above the Yanzhou offer price, and presumably may have tax liabilities on the 50 cent fully franked 2nd Dividend?
Why should 3 of the Directors be financing this dividend to the tune of nearly $100m, on a 3 month interest free loan to Felix?
What's in it for them?
Any potential bidder presumably was doing his calculations assuming this 2nd dividend would not be paid by the company, except if the Yanzhou bid went through. Now it is available to all shareholders on the Register at 25 November.
This gratuitous offer from the Directors costing them quite a lot of money on interest lost, or interest paid to raise any of the money via loans, is baffling.
I don't see how it will help to ensure that the Yanzhou bid is accepted on December 8th, unless calculations have been done suggesting that obtaining 75% acceptancies is now by no means certain.
Any comments, anyone?
Vale an Indian company, Noirua? Brazilian as well as Indian?


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## noirua (12 November 2009)

There are thoughts that the Felix Directors realised that they had got things wrong. If Yanzhou takeover Felix on 23rd December then it would be Yanzhou's susidiary Felix paying the dividend by March 2010. As we would no longer be shareholders, and it would have to be paid by Yanzhou - probable legal problems doing that.
Also under takeover rules, Felix would not be allowed to pay more than 70% of profits in dividends. 

A few think that Felix Resources directors want to get the second dividend out of the way - they say it no longer requires the bid to go-ahead for it to be paid; this is a bigish turn-a-round. From the 19th November any counter bid is now straight forward. (second dividend, Felix go XD on 19th November).

SCHEME vote is critical now on 8th December and the vote FOR, by former White Mining shareholders (excluding Felix directors) is by no means certain now.

Xstrata are in a position where they can bid on the basis of accepting Deloittes estimate of value, requiring no further estimate to be made.
Synergies give Xstrata Annual profit advantage of about AU$25 million per annum [will try to find the citing for this information back in August, if I can Google it]. From this it depends what return basis is worked on and 10% would seem fair, putting a value of $25m x 10 = $250 million ($1.30) (at 8% it would be $312.5 million ($1.60)).
Thus Xstrata can bid $18.25 - $18.55 against Yanzhou's bid of $16.95. 

The above is the reason, even at this late stage. why I believe Xstrata are still interested.


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## Quillan (12 November 2009)

This from a Newsletter I subscribe to. Kind of looks like the rug has been pulled from under our feet, at a time when Felix is in the very best position to benefit from the upcoming investment interest in commodities and Companies, including Yanzhou !!

INVEST IN A MOUTNAIN OF INFLATION-FIGHTING HARD ASSETS. Hard assets ”” gold, oil, copper, coal, uranium, timber, potash, iron ore, cement, etc. ”” are one of the few asset classes that could thrive in the falling dollar trade war that I see coming. Also consider hard assets companies, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (NYSE: CEO), Yanzhou Coal (NYSE: YZC), Sino Gold (Australia: SGX), and BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP).


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## noirua (13 November 2009)

Yanzhou Coal's - bidding for Felix Resources through subsidiary Austar coal Mine - stock price rose to US$18.04 to close Thursday at $17.98 (compares to low in last 12 months of US$4.00), on prospects of growth relating to the takeover of Felix Resources.


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## noirua (15 November 2009)

This view of Felix Resources at  The Bull  seems quite fair in its general assessment of the present situation:  http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=7200


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## noirua (16 November 2009)

Felix Resources meet an interesting point when the stock goes XD on Thursday 19th November.  This would allow an interested party an opportunity without encumbrance, not to say that it is by any means certain as this is all a bit of a guessing game. Felix stock has risen above the $17.45 bid price this morning, and this may be more a case of interested parties seeing FLX as a reasonable gamble on a counter bid or raised bid terms by Yanzhou Coal.


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## gfresh (19 November 2009)

Went ex-div on the final div today, still trading slightly below the $16.95 final bidder price, at $16.83 on close with little depth. I will be interested to see if any large bidders step forward to take prices offered below $16.95. There seems little incentive to do so for other large players (unless they are keen on some last minute bid), and without the target bidding on market, it may drop quite a way below that. Up until today there has been some incentive to collect the divs + franking credits attached to enhance various tax strategies, but now that is gone... 

Was interested reading the final supplement brochure, whereby it looks as if the directors have financed this final div out of their own pocket, a loan of sorts against future earnings. In a way (that I see it) it seems the directors have used this to force smaller shareholder's hands somewhat. If the takeover *does not* go ahead for whatever reason, then any future profits have to be used to pay back the directors, and hence no dividend for smaller holders for the next period, and maybe longer. Cunning? 

In some ways I enjoy watching these takeovers, they always play out slightly differently don't they.


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## Quillan (19 November 2009)

What was notable today gfresh was the transaction of 1 million shares at about 1410 at $16.85, the highest price traded for the previous hour. On the One Minute chart provided by MarketWatch, this was shown as one trade, and the price did not move at all.
An arbitrage purchase to make 10 cents, less the brokerage on the purchase costs? I doubt it. The same applies to the 500,000 trade a bit earlier. making a total of more than 2 million traded today.
By disposing of your shares at 10cents below the price to be paid in a month's time, assuming no counter bid, means a loss of 0.59% on Yanzhou's offer price plus commission costs on the sale. I guess the 2 large sellers had need to invest the money elsewhere. Let's hope they will be kicking themselves sometime between now and the 8th of December !!t:banghead


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## noirua (19 November 2009)

The listed trades were as follows:
1,045,813 shares - $16.82 - 12 trades
199,114 shares - $16.80 - 1 trade
600,000 shares - $16.80 - 1 trade
149,525 shares - $16.88 - 1 trade
The last three trades may well have been off market.


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## zamitabha (20 November 2009)

The dividend is paid according to the record at 25th Nov. Does it mean you can sell the stock after 25th Nov and still be paid the 50cents per share according to your holdings at 25th?


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## noirua (20 November 2009)

zamitabha said:


> The dividend is paid according to the record at 25th Nov. Does it mean you can sell the stock after 25th Nov and still be paid the 50cents per share according to your holdings at 25th?




 As Felix Resources (FLX) went XD on 19th November you can sell now and collect the 50c dividend due on 9th December.


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## noirua (21 November 2009)

Since the Announcement of the bid and terms by Yanzhou Coal, the Yanzhou Coal share price has risen from US$15.57 to US$19.22.
Felix Resources stock price has fallen from A$17.32 to A$16.82.
This may well indicate that this bid advantages the Chinese coal company Yanzhou Coal greatly, and to the disadvantage of Felix Resources shareholders. 
The Felix Resources directors have agreed to support the A$16.95 cash offer by Yanzhou (through subsidiary Austar Coal Mine) and have thus handcuffed themselves to this lower than expected cash offer.
It seems that Xstrata or BHP Billiton are among the few who could counter bid, but may not wish to anger China.


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## noirua (23 November 2009)

Just 15 days to go now to  The SCEME MEETING and vote  on 8th December, and it may well be taken right up to the close of business on 7th December until we know for sure whether a counter bidder is interested or not.

Felix cash in the bank was $274 million two weeks ago, after paying the final dividend on 30th October and tax due for the year ending 30th June.
Due to the maximum rule of 70%  (dividend payment of net fully franked taxed income) it was necessary to borrow $97 million from directors to pay the extra 50c dividend. [ quite a turn-a-round as payment was due up to March 2010]

So Felix have $177 million left in the bank after allowing for the loan by directors.

Coal prices in US Dollars for thermal is around US$82 a tonne compared with Deloittes forward estimate beyond 2014 of just US$70 a tonne.

Even if we take the $82 per tonne present price it is US$12 per tonne above Deloitte's value factor for Felix. 
Deloitte sees Felix coal production over 20mtpa from 2014 and seems, even after royalties etc., to raise the valuation of A$18.10 for Felix Resources stock to around A$25 per share.

If the price is US$100 a tonne for thermal coal beyond 2014 then the $25 stock price for FLX would equate to an even higher price. However, there are currency factors to be considered, coal sales and future developments of the Wilpeena and Athena areas.


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## buttonzhu (23 November 2009)

Yes, it is still not clear for this dog, 

My observation should be hold now for a moment.

Cheers


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## nomore4s (23 November 2009)

buttonzhu said:


> Yes, it is still not clear for this dog,
> 
> My observation should be hold now for a moment.
> 
> Cheers




buttonzhu,

Can you please add some detail to this post. Why do you think FLX is a hold for the moment? And to be honest I'm not sure that it qualifies as a dog, so maybe add some reasoning for that opinion as well.

This is a reminder to all posters that ASF expects a high standard of posting in the stock threads to keep the quality content up for the benefit of all users of the site. Posts like the above would normally be removed so to save wasting both your time and the mods time please try to add some useful content.

Thank you.


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## noirua (24 November 2009)

Felix stock continues in light trading today and no real sign of a breakout even though Macarthur Coal are moving on strongly. Continuing with my emails to several companies etc., about the takeover, and though I can't expect a reply as such, at least two are acknowledging receipt now and not ignoring me completely.
At least the coal sector is still recovering and hopefully Felix stock will breakout before 4th December, otherwise we're stuffed.
I notice, even among close contacts, a form of apathy everywhere and there are very few now bothering much.  I'm keeping the faith about a counter bid coming, though there appears no sign of it so far in trading today.


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## noirua (24 November 2009)

Hi everyone, I received a phone call from Felix Resources today enquiring as to whether I had received the Scheme Booklet and whether I was going to vote for the Scheme on 8th December 2009. The poor feller got an ear full and he's probably just been roped in to phone, tough.
I don't know if they are getting worried or not. Could the director who resigned and two managers be wobbling a bit, if so, they count for nearly 18% of the vote and MD Mr Brian Flannery and co need 75%.  Is it going to be a tight finish? I wonder; no more than that though.


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## Quillan (26 November 2009)

I subscribe to this service, and Gue knows his onions. It's not a cheap service !!
I just thought his latest comments might make you consider how as shareholders, you may decide to vote on the 8th.
We vote against and the Bid may fail, but what would happen to the share price?
If Gue's opinion about coal prices and energy generally are correct, any downward blip in the FLX Price would be very temporary.
I intend to vote against the proposed Bid. I believe we are being sold seriously short, and the valuation anyway should be adjusted to allow for developments since the bid was announced.
My magnifying glass is on MCC and WEC, in case the Bid goes through.
Anyone else prepared to say whether they intend to accept?
PS Flannery hasn't asked me how I intend to vote, but of course he reads ASF!! Obviously he realises Noirua has serious clout !! Has your group met to decide your strategy yet, Noirua?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
From Elliott Gue.
"If the shouting heads of CNBC and Fox Business News knew everything, there’d be no need to read this.

But if you harbor a doubt or two about them, meet Elliott Gue, the man whose energy stock selections are up 44% since January  (his aggressive holdings have soared 60%, beating the pants off the S&P nearly 2 to 1).

Now Mr. Gue is doing it again, calling for gut-punch increases in the prices of crude oil, uranium, coal and, most amazingly, natural gas ... and, in so doing, going against the so-called wise men. (Sorry, Maria Bartiromo. You, too.)

Not baby-step increases either. Crude oil ... back above $150. Uranium ... up 60% next year. Coal ... up double next year. And, most defiant of all, a 50% spike in gas prices in just a few months.

Perhaps you've not yet heard of either Mr. Gue or his organization, The Energy Society.

Just as well. Because the fact that Mr. Gue’s forecasts and analyses are known only to a select group of very wealthy investors is a very good thing from our point of view.

Since inception in 2005, members of The Energy Society have enjoyed an overall increase of 85% on their invested wealth.

I didn’t make that number up.

Indeed, none of what you are about to read is “made up.” It rests on bedrock fact, deep research and skull-busting analysis you cannot get any place but The Energy Society. Not from a hedge fund. Certainly not from a mutual fund. Not from Merrill Lynch, not from Schwab, not even from a private investment manager whom you’d pay tens of thousands of dollars. (A year, that is.)


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## noirua (26 November 2009)

Hi Quillan et al, I'm sure many will vote against the scheme on 8th December and probably just as many wont vote at all. The former White Mining shareholders hold the key to the outcome.

As you rightly say, Macarthur Coal shares have done well since the bid for Felix and also Whitehaven Coal.  The key to how well this bid advantages Yanzhou is in the near 30% rise in the stock price to over US$20.00.  It would seem fair if the Felix stock price rose as well and near everyone knows now that A$16.95 a share has become a very low offer indeed since August.

Will Deloitte raise their valuation of Felix Resources or withraw it?; will Yanzhou raise their offer for Felix Resources?; will Xstrata move in next week with a counter bid?; and will some former White Mining shareholders ask for more or vote against on 8th December?


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## Quillan (26 November 2009)

Just sent to Brian Flannery.

Dear Brian, and your fellow Directors.
I guess you are pretty peeved right now.
It's always easy with hindsight to see when you have made a serious mistake.

To be fair to you, it may have been debatable to forecast the rise in the coal price 3 months later.

However, clearly Yanzhou could see the coal price was too cheap.
As could Elliott Gue at The Energy Society,
He  has an awesome reputation in energy matters,
Perhaps had you subscribed to his services, you might have looked at the offer in a different light?

I expect you have already read my post on Aussie Stock Forums yesterday?
Certainly the Market realises you have been stitched up,and has raised the value of Yanzhou shares by nearly 30% since the bid.

I note you have asked Noirua how he intends to vote on the 8th December.Presumably therefore you are canvassing other shareholders. Is this permitted behaviour?

I feel miffed at being left out!!

It occurs to me that this could save your bacon, and the value of your investments in Felix.
If you can ascertain  that more than 25% intend to vote against, you will be off the hook.
Felix will then be in play again, and we can flourish on our own, or entertain approaches nearer the real present and future value of our investment.

If Gue is right, that coal prices will double in the next year, you will all be hopping mad, along with the rest of your shareholders, if this bid succeeds.

I guess we will all be driven into the arms of MCC and others to enjoy the future investment value of coal.
However, I was delighted to see a trade in FLX of 1 milllion shares today. Someone substantial is buying. They might yet save your embarrassment, and your investment?

Don't get me wrong. All shareholders congratulate you on the wonderful job you have done in the past years to grow our investment.
But in horse racing parlance, it's a shame you fell at the last fence, when so far ahead of the field.

Best wishes,
John.


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## noirua (29 November 2009)

Another excellent letter Quillan and I feel, in his heart of hearts, that MD MR Brian Flannery would jump on to your bandwagon if he were not handcuffed to Yanzhou's.

Let's hope that 4 of the White Mining former shareholders back the rest of us in wanting an improved price from Yanzhou (through subsidiary Austar Coal Mine) in line with the increase in Yanzhou's share price, and that of Macarthur Coal and Whitehaven Coal since the offer made by Yanzhou of $16.95 in August. This would equate to about $22 per share for Felix Resources on the $16.95 bid and $20.20 0n the Felix price just after the bid was made in August.

I seem to feel, who knows, that Mr Flannery MAY think the Aussie Government and PRC will be very pleased with him, and maybe, just maybe, he'll be advanced by this.  As well as pocketing some $500 million plus $29 million in dividends - well done Mr Flannery you've done very very well, for Mr Flannery. Please don't forget the small shareholders despite being handcuffed to Yanzhou's bid.

Many shareholders will be forced to pay capital gains tax, further reducing the value of their holding, when they are content to take the risks of this cyclical coal sector.


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## Quillan (2 December 2009)

Next Tuesday is crunch day. Our Directors are locked into a decision which virtually disenfranchises us small shareholders, unless we can muster 25% to scupper the deal.

Market opinion has already been expressed. 3 months ago almost all Mining Correspondents put the fair value on Felix at about $24 a share. The Market said Felix was being stolen at $18, and promptly added 30% to the Yanzhou share price.

That was before the price of thermal coal increased nearly 20% which has not been reflected in any increased offer.

In effect you will be passing an extra $60 million in profits pa to Yanzhou shareholders, without so much as a murmur.
That means principally to the Chinese Government.

The Chinese must think the OZ investors are easy meat !!
[I speak as a European investor in Felix.]
I am reminded of a pack of hyenas laughing, before they rip up the carcass.
They tried to steal Rio Tinto from you, then thought they could complete their stranglehold on Rare Earths, by acquiring Lynas.

 Already all future battery and electronic producers will be forced to manufacture in China, as China has over 95% of world reserves. Not content with that, they are pursuing a policy of driving out all competition, which could have very serious National Security consequences for all Western countries.

They are rigorously applying a policy to get their hands on virtually all of Africa's natural resources.

CAN'T YOU SEE WHAT IS GOING ON?

Whilst Felix shareholders cannot stop this inexorable march by themselves, we can do our bit by keeping Felix in Australian investors' hands, which in my opinion will be in all our own best interests anyway.

Many are forecasting  50%--100% rise in coal prices and other commodities in 2010, with China and the other BRIC economies forging ahead, showing GDP increases of up to 10%.

The Chinese are desperately seeking to tie up coal supplies everywhere. Hardly surprising since they are completing ONE NEW COAL FIRED POWER STATION EVERY WEEK !!
So our Directors intend to hand our resources to China on a plate !!

One day you will all have to answer the question:
"WHAT DID YOU DO WHEN THE CHINESE INVADED OUR COUNTRY, DADDY?"
After you have paid your GainsTaxes on your profits and then seen the price of coal rocket next year, you might regret not putting up a fight to keep our Company in our hands.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you will pass this opinion on to all the Mining Correspondents you can contact, there is still time in this weekend's Press for the decision on Tuesday to be influenced by right-thinking Australians, including BHP perhaps?
That is, unless you independent shareholders decide to vote with the sheeple?


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## noirua (2 December 2009)

Brispot Nominees Pty Ltd, House Head Nominee No1 A/C have noted an increase (source Felix Resources website) from 608,966 shares to 6,387,746 shares in the last quarter to 30th November.


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## gfresh (3 December 2009)

Interesting to see the presentation posted today.. Brian Flannery busy talking up Felix to US investors. Why would you for a "sold" company? So much for not "soliciting" other offers, he's just being more surreptitious about it  

Quillan: I somewhat agree with what you are saying, but not sure the absolute maliciousness of the Chinese -- they are really protecting their own interests to protect their future growth, as does the US with their Middle East actions, etc. I don't blame them too much for looking a decade ahead, whereas our leaders are too busy thinking about the next 3 years only. 

What pisses me off however, is while they can buy our companies quite easily, the door only swings one way. They get angered if when we block such moves, however can an Australian company (or any foreign company for that matter) buy into Chinese firm? Not a chance in hell! That is the stupid thing I find about the whole issue here with Chinese takeovers. They have absolutely no right to be frustrated if we simply say "no".


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## noirua (3 December 2009)

Yes, the presentation appeared unneeded unless the Felix directors have got  wind of the fact that there is at least one interested party waiting out there needing this information to counter bid by the latest, Monday 7th December.

If there is still someone buying stock in the market then they have done brilliantly. Not many hints and just taking their time - maybe that is.

+++++++

If anyone visits: ASF are looking for support and your vote at: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies_list.php?c=Forums


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## Quillan (3 December 2009)

gfresh: Malice was never suggested by me. They are extremely intelligent, hard-headed businessmen. They seem to run rings around western businesses wherever they meet.

Our Board of Directors imply that we are getting a good deal as the price was well below the Yanzhou offer price beforehand.

Even Deloitte try to use this as an aspect of valuation. They also implied at the time of their valuation that because there had been no counter offer, the Yanzhou offer fully valued Felix.

This was a monstrous distortion of the facts. Until Yanzhou's bid had been cleared, there was no possibility of any other bids.
.
I thought Deloitte were meant to be acting in the interests of the Felix shareholders?

We paid their bill, didn't we?

If it was a fair valuation at that time,which was disputed by almost all the Mining Press, then the fact that coal prices have increased considerably since, and the consensus is that they will continue to appreciate, surely proves Deloitte might just as well have been working for Yanzhou?
With whatever respect is due to them, that is no way to value assets.

Similarly the individual Board members, some collecting $500m plus, may well say amongst themselves, "That's enough for us. Thanks very much".
That attitude, if it is a fair comment, is no way to decide the value of Felix.

Deloitte's valuation is a meaningless sham, since they are paid by Felix to agree that it is a fair bid. A nice little earner for doing what?

If there is no higher offer by next Monday, we must assume that BHP and Xtrata either cannot afford it, or think there are better fish to fry.

If the thermal and the semi-coking prices are 50% higher in 12 months' time, those shareholders who vote against the Resolution, will have every right to be as mad as hell.
Saying "I told you so" will be no consolation for having our pockets picked.


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## Quillan (3 December 2009)

I have only just read Flannery's 45 page glossy PDF praising the achievements of the Board, and the GLITTERING prospects for the future of the Company.
This takes no account of the probable rise in all commodity prices in the next 12 months, WITH COAL PRICES FORECAST TO DOUBLE BY ONE RESPECTED US ANALYST.
Had they employed Deloitte to put forward a really strong defence AGAINST A HOSTILE BID, they could hardly have done a better job !!!
Flannery and the Board are shouting loud and clear, as I see it, that they realise they have made a horrendous mistake, and have really let the small shareholders down by underselling the Company.
Why else produce this Report at the last minute, if they really think the bid price values our assets fairly?
They seem to be imploring all the uncommitted shareholders to vote against the Resolution, short of actually breaking their commitment to stay silent !!
I suggest we listen to Flannery's silent plea, AND ALL VOTE AGAINST THE RESOLUTION !!
We still own Felix. Let's protect our investment and send the Chinese packing!!
IT'S NOT TOO LATE !
I SAY AGAIN, CONTACT ALL THE MEDIA OUTLETS YOU CAN, SO THEY CAN RUN A STORY THIS WEEKEND.


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## noirua (3 December 2009)

I understand that foreign investors who hold shares with a stockbroker have not received the Scheme Booklet and most may not be aware of their right to vote at the meeting on 8th December. Friday 4th December 7.30pm Sydney time is the last chance to vote by proxy - not long to go.

I am at present in contact with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu to try to persuade them to issue a supplementary IER. At present they admit to not being aware of these forgotten assets and PT Krakatau's pending legal action over S.A.S.E.  Felix in reply to Deloitte say that the Additional matters are immaterial to the financial position of Felix.
I'm trying to persuade Deloitte that the iron ore royalties over future iron ore production from Hawks Nest are material. Production over time is between 550 and 800 million tonnes and royalties are $1 per tonne.  The area is within the Woomera protection zone.
The Way Linggo gold royalties are worth A$4.5 million on current exploration. Kingrose Mining are exploring for further gold in good prospective areas.

It has been confirmed by Deloitte that Flinders Power Partnership still have rights over Ingomar Trial Pit and other tenements in the Phillipson Tenement until May 2010. This is part of South Australian Coal SAC recently an ex-species dividend to Felix Resources shareholders.


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## fairlight (4 December 2009)

I understood that the online voting (investorvote.com) closes at 4pm today. Anyway, our 4000 have voted against.

fairlight


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## noirua (4 December 2009)

Letter received by me from Deloitte - Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu on 3rd December 2009. (personal detail and references omitted - marked between ' ' added by me)

I would first respect Deloitte for replying honestly as others failed to do so.

Re: Felix Independent Expert Report 'IER'
I refer to your email to the complaints Officer on 24 November 2009 regarding the Independent Expert's Report for Felix Resources Limited (Felix) prepared by Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited (Deloitte) and dated 30 September 2009 (the IER).

In accordance with our Complaints Management Policy, the matters you raised have been investigated and our response is set out below.

A number of interests and contingent liabilities you suggest have been overlooked by Deloitte in estimating the value of Felix in preparing the IER. These interests and liabilities are summarised below:

1. Royalties over iron ore production from Western Plains Resources Limited's (WPG) Hawks Nest tenement in South Australia (Hawks Nest)

2. Royalties over gold production from Kingrose Mining Limited's (Kingrose) Way Linggo Project in Sumatre.

3. A legal claim by PT Krakatau Steel (PTKS) against Felix, SASE Limited (SASE) (owned by Felix (90%), Ausmelt Limited (Ausmelt) (5%) and PTKS (5%)) and Ausmelt

4. The rights of the Flinders Power Partnership (Flinders) over the Ingomar Trial pit until May 2010 'now part of SAC which was issued to Felix shareholders by an in-species dividend'

5. Felix's 21.5% interest in (ADC) and the former pig iron demonstration plant near Whyalla

(together the Additional matters).

We were not aware of the Additional Matters at the time of preparing the IER.

We have raised the Additional Matters with Felix who advised us that the Additional Matters are immaterial to the financial position of Felix.  We have considered the Additional matters in light of the IER and we have concluded that they are immaterial, individually and in aggregate, to the estimate of the value of Felix and to the conclusions in the IER.

Accordingly, we do not think it necessary for Deloitte to amend the IER or issue a Supplement IER.

Yours faithfully   -  Marisa Orbea Partner


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## noirua (6 December 2009)

As a final skirmish in this battle to prove the true value of Felix Resources I have sent final emails to 'Deloitte' and a few others.

These two emails outline the value particularly of the royalties in iron ore sold from the Hawks Nest Iron Ore tenement in South Australia, thought to be A$1 per tonne. From the link below it can be seen that the area holds a minimum of 500 million tonnes and is expected to be higher than this. There is risk and the time factor involved but these sums can be seen as substantial. 
http://www.westernplainsresources.com.au

The second email concerns gold from the Kingrose Mining's Way Linggo gold project in Sumatre. The first six years royalties are likely to total A$4.5 million with further exploration underway.
http://www.siteground224.com/~simonhic/krm/

http://www.siteground224.com/~simonhic/krm/way-linggo.php


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## Aussiest (6 December 2009)

*Yanzhou Bid For FLX*

What do you think will happen? Afterall, the offer is for only $16.95 per share, pretty much what it's been trading for over the past 4 months.


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## noirua (6 December 2009)

*Re: Yanzhou Bid For FLX*



Aussiest said:


> What do you think will happen? Afterall, the offer is for only $16.95 per share, pretty much what it's been trading for over the past 4 months.




The shares as you say Aussiest have traded fairly flat since mid-August. This was not helped by FIRB's onerous conditions on the Chinese as other foreign companies would have seen they would also have conditions put on them.
This left only Xstrata with their adjoined Ulan mine next to Felix's and two other mines not far from Felix's Ashton Mine in the Hunter, as they have synergy gains despite being an Anglo Swiss company - so far they've not indicated they will bid and Monday is the last day.

There is a slight chance that Austar Coal Mine will up their bid price on Monday. Yanzhou, parent of Austar, has seen their shares rise by 35% during the period that Felix's price fell 3%. Much of the gain appears to be seen in the future growth of felix Resources Moolarben project and tenements at Wilpeena and Athena.

The SCHEME vote is at 10am on Tuesday next and if 75% vote in favour the matter goes to Court on Thursday next. At that point Felix Resources would be a 100% owned subsidiary of Yanzhou Coal. Shareholders will be paid A$16.95 a share on 23rd December 2009.

There is a slight possibility of an appeal to the Supreme Court.  There may also be a claim for extra cash for assets that were forgotten by the Directors of Felix Resources, or alleged as knowingly forgotten. [Deloitte have said they were unaware of the assets when making their valuation of Felix]


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## noirua (7 December 2009)

There are statements in the press today that says that Felix Resources shareholders approved the bid for their company either earlier in the year or August. THESE REPORTS ARE UNTRUE: Felix Resources shareholders will in fact vote on the off market takeover bid of Felix Resources by Yanzhou Coals' subsidiary Austar Coal Mine on Tuesday 8th December 2009.


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## Quillan (7 December 2009)

noirua said:


> There are statements in the press today that says that Felix Resources shareholders approved the bid for their company either earlier in the year or August. THESE REPORTS ARE UNTRUE: Felix Resources shareholders will in fact vote on the off market takeover bid of Felix Resources by Yanzhou Coals' subsidiary Austar Coal Mine on Tuesday 8th December 2009.




How about demanding from those Papers for a rebuttal and apology to be printed before 10 am tomorrow?

Was this false information planted by a pro Yanzhou faction?The Press responsible must reveal their sources for such glaring and misleading statements.

THESE REPORTS ARE ENOUGH TO ENSURE SOME SHAREHOLDERS THINK THE DEAL IS DONE AND THAT THERE IS NO POINT IN ATTENDING THE MEETING TOMORROW TO VOTE AGAINST.

SURELY SUCH REPORTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAKE THE VOTE TOMORROW UNCONSTITUTIONAL, UNTIL SUFFICIENT PUBLICITY IS GIVEN TO THE FACT THAT THESE WERE LIES WHICH WERE BOUND TO MISLEAD SOME VOTERS ?

If Flannnery claims the various undeclared assets were "inadvertently" not declared to Deloitte when they made their Report, and that they made no "material difference" to assessing the bid value, I suggest a move to ask the Courts to assign these assets free of charge to our South Australian shareholding. 

If Yanzhou resist such a move, it will prove they think they are of material value.What was Flannery and his Board collectively doing "forgetting" we owned these assets? Isn't this negligence of the highest order?

If you were selling a $3bn Property Company and forgot to mention a building worth say $5million, you would never get away with saying the $5m building made no material difference to the shareholders of the Company being sold.
If it makes "no material  difference" we will keep these assets, thank you very much.

These points MUST BE RAISED AT THE MEETING TOMORROW, BEFORE THE VOTE IS TAKEN.

It seems that Flannery et al refuse to put any value on Way Linggo interests or the iron ore royalties in SA.

Doesn't the ASX have a duty to act on this?


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## noirua (7 December 2009)

Hi Quillan and everyone, An increasing number of organisations take the route of ignoring emails and letters, and carrying on regardless.

If the emails and letters are run-of-the-mill then they gladly reply or if they view them as harmless then you also get a letter or email back. 
Ask questions about matters where they failed to act in FULL and honest truth, a look of shock horror, and then ignore it and hope it goes away.

I remember reading about a case recently where investors went to court because the asset value of the company was underestimated. They won their case.

At the meeting tomorrow we need some of the White Mining former shareholders to rebel and vote against.

Deloitte's failure to add the value of assets and royalties to the estimate of Felix Resources value, knowing, as Deloitte say in their letter, that they were unaware of them at the time of their valuation of Felix Resources raises a question mark over Deloitte's decision not to do so. 
However, Deloitte do appear to say they are going by statements of little value by Felix Resources and taking their statements as correct. At the same time Deloitte appear to say it was a conscious decision by Felix Resources to leave them out. 

I did have an email from a person helping the legal representation of PT Krakatau Steel's legal case against Felix Resources. That person seemed concerned and interested at the failure by Felix Resources to mention S.A.S.E. and pending legal action.

Still, I'm just one small shareholder of little consequence as the large shareholders appear to be about to vote THE SCHEME through tomorrow and everything I've said and written, certain to be ignored. 

I suppose the Australian Government, through FIRB, have taken the view that the individual must suffer for the greater Australian dream. That does seem to come from China though, perhaps our supreme leader got it from there in his long stay patching up his Mandarin. 

ANYWAY, WHAT THE HELL CAN THE SMALL GUY DO IF THE GIANTS JUST WONT HELP?


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## noirua (8 December 2009)

I have had another reply from Deloitte, I must say they are efficient and on the ball, most others aren't.
I basically put to them again the iron ore and gold royalty situation and they put it back to Felix Resources.  Again they do not feel it necessary to revise their valuation of Felix Resources.

Best I suppose to wait for the end of the Scheme meeting tomorrow - no point getting annoyed.


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## noirua (8 December 2009)

That looks to be it, "It's over let it go".  Thanks to the posters on FLX over the years, good luck and goodbye to this thread.


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## awg (8 December 2009)

noirua said:


> That looks to be it, "It's over let it go".  Thanks to the posters on FLX over the years, good luck and goodbye to this thread.




thanks for sharing your quality research,

maybe you can keep us similarly updated on the research of your proceeds target

wish I'd got on FLX earlier, still, if my trade work out exactly as planned, cant complain


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## tomb (8 December 2009)

Many Thanks to all the posters, and especially Noira, who I have been following for the last couple of years.
I have been a shareholder since the meekathara days and I suppose I should feel happy with this result put in the context of the ups and downs of the last 15-20 years and the recent global upheavals.
It is however for me a dissappointing end to a company that showed so much promise so many times and was looking like it might finally deliver.


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## Quillan (8 December 2009)

Yes, Goodbye everybody, and especailly to Noirua who has done far more than anyone to keep us informed and to try wherever possible to represent the interests of us all.
Hello and goodbye to Tomb, another old stalwart from long ago. We Meekatharra oldies have really been through the mill !!!
I remember when the Meeka price got down to the equivalent of about AUD1 or less.
I remember lunches with Don O'Callaghan in London, and attending Committee Meetings at the House of Commons to try to influence the decision for the go ahead for a Ballymoney Power Station.
Life will be strange not to check the share price first thing in the European morning.
No more blogs, or letters to the Board. Life on a Malta beach calls !!
It's been fun. OK, we didn't get all that we had hoped for, but I really hope my OZ friends will not allow China to devour your country.
I will never trust them. They are ruthless.
Very best wishes to you all.
John. aka Quillan !!
Logging out.


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## gfresh (9 December 2009)

Well that's it I guess.. the only thing I can take comfort in was I was 1 of the 101 shareholders that voted against. 

Yup, much thanks to Noirua for keeping us all informed.


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## noirua (18 December 2009)

I've had a rethink and will continue to post on this thread to cover South Australian Coal (SAC). This is still a private unquoted company divested by Felix Resources and all the shareholders are the same as the now former Felix Resources. SAC should have a market quote in the first half of 2010.

This will also allow coverage of a future court case by PT Krakatau Steel against Felix Resources, concerning the S.A.S.E. former subsidiary. Depending on the outcome, former Felix Resources shareholders may be in a position to claim that the bid by Yanzhou Coal forgot these assets, and that royalties for up to 800 million tonnes of iron ore were not at negligible value (referring to emails by Deloitte concerning deliberations made in December 2009), but were in fact substantial. [the value of these royalties are up to A$800 million, (A$500 million at Western Plains Resources' estimates in 2009) however, the time and risk factors need to be included]

The royalties on the Way Linggo, Sumatre Gold Mine are at around A$4.7 million but further exploration by Kingrose Mining continues.


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## noirua (21 December 2009)

noirua said:


> I've had a rethink and will continue to post on this thread to cover South Australian Coal (SAC). This is still a private unquoted company divested by Felix Resources and all the shareholders are the same as the now former Felix Resources. SAC should have a market quote in the first half of 2010.
> 
> This will also allow coverage of a future court case by PT Krakatau Steel against Felix Resources, concerning the S.A.S.E. former subsidiary. Depending on the outcome, former Felix Resources shareholders may be in a position to claim that the bid by Yanzhou Coal forgot these assets, and that royalties for up to 800 million tonnes of iron ore were not at negligible value (referring to emails by Deloitte concerning deliberations made in December 2009), but were in fact substantial. [the value of these royalties are up to A$800 million, (A$500 million at Western Plains Resources' estimates in 2009) however, the time and risk factors need to be included]
> 
> The royalties on the Way Linggo, Sumatre Gold Mine are at around A$4.7 million but further exploration by Kingrose Mining continues.




To clarify the above concerning PT Krakatau Steel (the company). The company invested US$2.5 million in SASE (90% Felix Resources (Felix), 5% Ausmelt (AET), 5% PT Krakatau Steel) in 1998. This agreement allowed for the delivery of iron ore to PT Krakatau Steel to offset their investment.
Felix and AET subsequently sold the iron ore holdings at Hawks Nest and Pecular Knob to Western Plains Resources (WPG).

Once iron ore is supplied to the company (subject to a future court decision)  
it will be possible to work out the likely value of the royalties due to Felix.
These royalties were forgotten or not included in the value of Felix by Deloitte (Delloitte say they were unaware of this asset when valuing Felix for the purposes of a takeover by Yanzhou Coal), and consequently, leaves open the possibility of a claim by former Felix shareholders for this interest. 

The Way Linggo royalties are a separate matter.


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## RemoteView (22 December 2009)

I have been looking at the forum for a long time. I have been a shareholder for many years, thank you to all for the great info.
Glad N is going to continue to post.


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## noirua (22 December 2009)

RemoteView said:


> I have been looking at the forum for a long time. I have been a shareholder for many years, thank you to all for the great info.
> Glad N is going to continue to post.




I suppose we should concentrate on South Australian Coal (SAC) and the drilling that is ongoing at Coober Pedy (Opal city of the world), that's in the North of the Phillipson tenement and not within the Woomera Protection area; it seems that 75% is though. No reports or evaluations so far but exploration has been carried out for a while now; I think since early 2009.

It looks as if any coal sales from Ingomar or Corner Gate will have to wait until coal from Leigh Creek runs out. They said it was running down in 2001 and it's still arriving through Coober Pedy some eight years later. [trains from Leigh Creek are said to be the longest in the World]


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## noirua (23 December 2009)

The final payment of $16.95 per share, due to all those on the register at 18th December 2009 was paid this morning at 9.00am AEST to former shareholders in Felix Resources. Notification was made by email to all concerned today.

Issuer Sponsored shareholders who have not given Bank details will be paid by cheque.

All details through http://www.computershare.com


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## noirua (6 January 2010)

Felix Buyout 'good deal for both' : http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=8505

I don't doubt this deal between Australia and China is good for both countries, a different view no doubt from the green camp that has greater support as each month passes.

The shares of bidder Yanzhou Coal are up 60% at US$24.71 since bidding for Felix Resources, and tends to tell its own story of who was the greater gainer here. Were shareholders duped by Mr Brian Flannery and his fellow directors?

Deloitte have forecast thermal coal benchmark price from 2014 at just US$70 a tonne. Spot price at Newcastle stands at US$92.30 a tonne at present. Were shareholders duped by Deloitte ( Independent Experts) in their forecast?

Perhaps the full truth will emerge eventually?


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## WSG (7 January 2010)

Having been a shareholder in Meekatharra from the earlist days of Don O'Callahan and all that that represented, I think that I have been extremely fortunate to have received the cash payment from the Felix deal. Even though there is a conspiracy theory about the eventual price received it will be very difficult to prove anything after the event and more so as time goes by.   I  think that South Australian Coal could be very exciting and await the flotation with interest. Thank you all for your contributions over the years and I am delighted that the column is now going to follow SAC.


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## madterrier (7 January 2010)

English shareholder in London here.

Coming to the party rather late here.  I inherited some shares in AuIron many years ago from my late mother. They then disappeared off the radar completely, as I almost did myself (AuIron apparently became Felix, but no-one told me) and knowing my mother's stockpicking capabilities (all zeroed out) I lost interest in and then all trace of this stock. Also moved address many times, and never received anything from the company.

Then by chance I looked into this stock again last month, and am now trying to catch up with events as best I can. I'm owed various dividends by Felix, and their communication with shareholders is underwhelming.  All I've received from the company is a cheque for A$16.95 a share for my shareholding, relating to a purchase by Yanzhou Coal. So Felix is now gone, right?

All too late to get involved; and I'll read this thread on this forum that I've just discovered this evening. But if anyone can summarise what has happens next, that would be great.  We get one share in SAC for every share in Felix Resources, right?  Is this SAC company already quoted on the Aussie stock exchange? If not, what is the plan?

Got to admit, I was/am more than happy to have some funds invested in commodity rich/no nonsense Australia, given the nightmare wreck the socialist clowns have made of the British economy and currency.  So I'd also welcome any other good recommendations for reinvesting my funds in Aus. Like others, I'm bullish on commodities and happy to take a long-term view.

Not sure about the terms of the FR/Yanz deal.  But seems to me like a very low coal price was used in the calculations.  Black and dusty it might be, but they ain't making it any more. 

Thanks in advance.

MT


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## noirua (8 January 2010)

Hi madterrior, Go to http://www.computershare.com.au and then put in your registered information etc., This will take you to various options concerning your holding, including dividends paid and whether these cheques were cashed or not. It is all quite straightforward.
SAC should receive an ASX quote in the first half of 2010. They are drilling for precious metals near Coober Pedy.  There is no website at present, though Felix Resources former Chairman Mr Travers Duncan is a director of the company.


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## awg (8 January 2010)

Hi,

A question to  Noirua in particular, but anyone in general

its come to my attention Felix had substantial overseas ownership on its register

and also paid a good dividend, 100% franked

this partially matches the profile of companies I wish to have in my SMSF pension.

Are you aware of any way to ascertain companies that have a higher than average foreign ownwership?

even better, any that do!

wish I had learned up about Felix earlier


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## noirua (16 January 2010)

awg said:


> Hi,
> 
> A question to  Noirua in particular, but anyone in general
> 
> ...




Go to each company's website, or the ASX, and look at their list of shareholders and from whence they come. It is possible to get graphic indications of the number of shareholders from each country and how many shares they hold, note UXA.


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## noirua (8 February 2010)

South Australian Coal Limited (former wholly owned subsidiary of FLX; now owned 100% by former shareholders of Felix) is seeking a Senior Geologist:  http://australia.infomine.com/careers/jobs/job384233/principal.senior.exploration.geologist.aspx


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## madterrier (1 April 2010)

Just posting on here on the very slim chance that anyone still reads this thread! (hopefully Noirua, as she seems to be an expert!).

I am trying to ascertain two things regarding my capital gains tax position here in the UK regarding Felix Resources shares. Tried the company and their registrars, but nothing.

1. Did AuIron become Felix Resources in a straight name change, or were there any share splits, rights or other capital/stock issues?

2. Did the sale of Felix Resources in December effectively crystallise a capital gain? Or did a 'Special Dividend' circumnavigate that?

3. Has Felix Resources effectively become SAC, for share ownership/capital gains purposes?

Grateful for any help. I inherited shares in AuIron from my late mother in 2002, but didn't receive communications from the company for years , and I'm not quite sure what my tax position is now.  And it's effectively the end of the UK tax year tomorrow (1 April). May have some decisions to make on sales/crystallising offsetting losses.

Many thanks in anticipation!

Paul D


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## noirua (1 April 2010)

madterrier said:


> Just posting on here on the very slim chance that anyone still reads this thread! (hopefully Noirua, as she seems to be an expert!).
> 
> I am trying to ascertain two things regarding my capital gains tax position here in the UK regarding Felix Resources shares. Tried the company and their registrars, but nothing.
> 
> ...




Hi madterrior, I'm not a tax expert and have only picked up information from accountants and various bulletin boards. 

Felix Resources was a straight name change from Auiron Energy.

Felix Resources paid 3 dividends that were all fully franked. Two 50c dividends that are only liable to tax if you pay above the 20% rate in the UK.
The in-species dividend of 10c a share representated South Australian Coal (SAC) [will be floated on the ASX in 2010] and this type of dividend is zero rated for tax purposes in the UK. [the shares however have a 10c price for any future tax purposes or in UK pence at the value paid to you at the time you received SAC stock].
Felix Resources did NOT become SAC.

The takeover bid did infact make your shares subject to UK capital gains tax. That is, if you made a gain of over £10,100 in the tax year ending 5th April 2010, the rate of tax is 18%.

On inheritance, the value of the shares would be taken to be the share price at the date of the death of your mother, in the UK. [provided all relevant taxes due were properly paid at the time]

Further on SAC shares. The company is at present appointing staff ie geologists etc., and is solely exploring for precious metals near Coober Pedy. The Phillipson coal interests are within the Woomera Protection Zone and there remains a question mark on future access. The company started last October with $10 million in the bank.

Good luck - noi


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## madterrier (1 April 2010)

Thanks noi, for the speedy and detailed response.

Hmmm...not sure it's the news I wanted to hear though!

I had thought that with the special dividend, it was just that - a dividend on which tax had already been paid. Leaving no capital gain as such. 

Now, either I've got to work out the transfer price at my mother's death and see how much CG that adds for this year, and then see what else if anything I've got to sell to crystallise by tomorrow morning. Or hope that somehow, given the uncertainty, I can 'deal' with this in the next tax year.

But why did they call it a 'special dividend' if in fact it was sales proceeds from the company being taken over?

Many thanks

Paul


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## madterrier (1 April 2010)

Only 25 minutes left before I have to close my books for the tax year.

It sounds like this is a capital gain, despite it being described as a special dividend. But I'm not 100% sure.

Also I have to find the share price of AuIron in the first week of May 2002. Any ideas?  I've tried float.com.au, but cannot make head nor tail of the data that comes back.

All the best

Paul


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## noirua (1 April 2010)

madterrier said:


> Only 25 minutes left before I have to close my books for the tax year.
> 
> It sounds like this is a capital gain, despite it being described as a special dividend. But I'm not 100% sure.
> 
> ...




I shouldn't worry too much as you have until 31st January 2011 to put your return in and the fines only £100 if you delay further.
If you read my post again, you will see that only the A$16.95 per share paid to you is subject to capital gains tax. [all dividends were fully franked]
I pay most of my tax to Australia now (non-doms have to pay £35,000 tax and I'm only employed part time), except on UK and Canadian pensions that are taxed at source and some foreign dividends where there is a taxation agreement. So I'm no expert on UK tax and a phone call to the UK tax people is probably best to guarantee accuracy and where to find shareprices in 2002. [i believe Auiron Energy was an AIM quoted stock in 2002, so going to the AIM website may give a clue to the price]


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## fawkner (2 April 2010)

I am in the UK with a similar Capital Gains Tax problem as you but going back to 1989!
 My price for Aurion in May 2002 appears to be aprox 0.08P but this was before the 1 for 10 capital reconstruction of November 2004. Only a ball park figure but may help your angina. Graham.


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## noirua (19 April 2010)

White Energy has bid for the former Felix Resources owned South Australian Coal (SACL). This is an off-market bid as SACL is an unquoted company:  http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=10856

Shareholders in SACL are exactly the same as those for Felix Resources.


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## noirua (19 April 2010)

SACL are exploring for Gold at the Christie Domain area South of Coober Pedy on ELL 3386. 
It is possible there may be similar styles of Archaean gold to that found at the Challenger mine, Aurora Tank Prospect and Gulf Bore Prospect.

Coal at the Phillipson prospect was given at 3 - 4 billion tonnes by Mr Brian Flannery.
There is already a trial pit at Ingomar and the Corner gate prospect has multiple seams. 

Hopefully there will be a counter-bid for SAC at a far higher price than that offered by White Energy WEC.

Recoverable coal over time should be at least 2 billion tonnes and at just 10c a tonne this amounts to 200 million dollars or $1.10 a share and that leaves nothing in there for the gold prospect at Christie Domain.


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## noirua (21 April 2010)

SACL shares (float of FLX asset) are now worth about 28c a share on the WEC price reaching $3.60 today - an increase on the 10.13c a share value in October 2009 of 180%.
If the extra 21.6c is paid this indicates an increase of 380%.

SACL (South Australian Coal), a former subsidiary of Felix Resources, has coal assets at Phillipson in South Australia, about the size of England, given as between 3 and 5 billion tonnes of subituminious coal (brown coal) and gold prospects at 5 locations at Phillipson.


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## noirua (23 April 2010)

Shareholders in South Australian Coal (SACL) who were registered with Felix Resources (formerly ASX:FLX) have been emailed information concerning the takeover bid for their company by White Energy (WEC).

SACL has no website and FLX's is under reconstruction.


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## noirua (28 May 2010)

noirua said:


> Shareholders in South Australian Coal (SACL) who were registered with Felix Resources (formerly ASX:FLX) have been emailed information concerning the takeover bid for their company by White Energy (WEC).
> 
> SACL has no website and FLX's is under reconstruction.




Felix Resources' (FRL) new website is now up and running at http://www.felixresources.com.au and they are now a private company. Part of Felix Resources will be sold together with Austar Coal mine during 2012.


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## madterrier (21 July 2010)

Hi again,

Were we, as former Felix Resources shareholders, due to receive one share in SAC for every Felix share held?  I've not heard or received a thing, now I read that SAC is a takeover target!

Can anyone shed any light on this and who I should try and contact?

Many thanks

Paul
London


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## peo3110 (3 February 2013)

*Auiron energy ltd shares???*

Hi there, I have found an old share cert of Auiron Energy Ltd from 2001. I have found they have changed there name to Felix Resources Ltd. Will the shares be worth anything?? I have over 7000 of them. Any news would be helpful, cheers.
peo3110


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## siobhan23 (19 March 2014)

Hi,

I don't know if anyone can help me, I have Auiron Energy Shares which I know had a name change to Felix Resources Ltd and then they were bought by SAC, I wrote to Computershare as they were the registrars for SAC and they told me that my holding 'moved to a zero balance on the 16 June 2004, which is before the the Scheme of Arrangement with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company.'

Can anyone help me please???

Thank you!


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