# MCC - Macarthur Coal



## jammin (29 April 2007)

Looks like a short after the recent announcement of falling sales combined with the (to be confirmed) double top.
Whilst MCC say that profit remains in the forecast range, reduced sales due to port issues will continue. The port issues would seem to be beyond their control.


----------



## reece55 (30 May 2007)

*MCC: MacAurthur Coal*

The coal sector is heating up by the looks of things (pardon the pun).

This one today has finally broken out of resistance at about the 5.95 barrier that it has failed to reach for some 1.5 years. Uptrend still in place, chart looking very nice and good volume - heres hoping previous resistance becomes new support!

Cheers
Reece


----------



## reece55 (31 May 2007)

Absolute textbook move from this stock yesterday, the sellers were completely exhausted. From there, in the afternoon the thing just soared.

Close this morning @ 6.35 for a nice 5%~ profit on a 6.05 entry in CFD position, if it retraces to $6.00 and holds I will buy some more......

Cheers
Reece


----------



## noirua (14 August 2007)

Macarthur coal have had their problems in the past year with congestion in Dalrymple Bay and Infrastructure constraints that have led to high purchases of coal to make up shortfalls. Worth watching all the same as coal prices strengthen:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070725/pdf/313lmh4sd453vq.pdf


----------



## noirua (30 August 2007)

Many may consider it appropriate to sell MCC with revenues down 32.2% and profits 55% lower. This stock is set to remain under pressure but may throw up an opportunity if it drops below $5.50.


----------



## michael_selway (1 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Many may consider it appropriate to sell MCC with revenues down 32.2% and profits 55% lower. This stock is set to remain under pressure but may throw up an opportunity if it drops below $5.50.




Hm this one has gone crazy as well!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 33.1 72.7 86.2 
DPS 18.0 16.4 32.5 44.7 *

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (6 November 2007)

Hi some new numbers out

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 29.7 66.0 92.1 
DPS 18.0 14.8 31.5 41.9 *

thx

MS



> Date: 30/10/2007
> Author: Stephen Wisenthal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 16
> There are many coal producers benefitting from the record coal price,underpinned by significant demand from Asia. Although stocks such as MacarthurCoal, New Hope and Felix Resources improved on 29 October 2007, Felix MD BrianFlannery identified port and rail infrastructure bottlenecks as a 2007 growthconstraint. The high stock prices for coal firms relies on the supply and demandimbalance, according to Fat Prophets' Gavin Wendt, head of mining andresources research
> ...


----------



## michael_selway (15 November 2007)

Hi Anyone own this one?

Some bad/uncertain guidance, but MT/LT it may be still good?

Thanks MS



> The Board of Directors of Macarthur Coal Limited (ASX: MCC) has today announced profit guidance for the first half of the 2008 financial year. Based on current forecasts, profit for the six months to December 2007 is likely to be in the range of $12 million to $18 million which is significantly lower than the $42.2 million reported in the previous corresponding half.
> 
> Sales volumes and profits for the first half of this financial year have been heavily impacted by ongoing constraints in the Goonyella coal chain and high levels of demurrage and it is evident that there will be little or no improvement in the short term. The current port infrastructure bottlenecks are due to the expansion works underway at Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal. Macarthur Coal’s allocation will double to 8.8Mtpa once the expansion is completed in 2010.
> 
> ...


----------



## noirua (21 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Anyone own this one?
> Some bad/uncertain guidance, but MT/LT it may be still good?
> Thanks MS




Hi m_s, As I felt, this McArthur stock continues to be beset with problems.  Can't see an end to this problem at the Dalrymple Bay Port.  I still keep to my August thoughts that they are worth looking at below $5.50.


----------



## michael_selway (10 December 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, As I felt, this McArthur stock continues to be beset with problems.  Can't see an end to this problem at the Dalrymple Bay Port.  I still keep to my August thoughts that they are worth looking at below $5.50.




Hm aquisition today!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 22.6 66.3 106.0 
DPS 18.0 14.0 32.0 39.5 *



> The Board of Directors of Macarthur Coal Limited (ASX: MCC) has today announced
> the signing of a Share Sale Agreement (SSA) for the purchase of 100% of the shares
> in Custom Mining Ltd. Payment for the acquisition will be split between cash and
> Macarthur Coal shares, as follows:
> ...


----------



## noirua (26 January 2008)

How wrong can I be as $10 approaches. Somehow could not bring myself to buy Macarthur Coal and rue the day I mentioned $5.50. Good luck to those who stayed on board.


----------



## michael_selway (28 January 2008)

noirua said:


> How wrong can I be as $10 approaches. Somehow could not bring myself to buy Macarthur Coal and rue the day I mentioned $5.50. Good luck to those who stayed on board.




They keep uping the long term forecasts!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 21.9 86.3 115.6 
DPS 18.0 13.8 43.5 57.8 *

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (11 February 2008)

MCC never seizes to amaze!



*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 18.3 85.9 137.3 
DPS 18.0 11.8 40.9 68.7 *








> Date: 31/1/2008
> Author: Stephen Wisenthal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 21
> Macarthur Coal needs to pump out its coal mines before it can resume productionat its Queensland mines. Its mines received almost 680mm of rain in just over amonth. The company says its coal reserves can satisfy export shipmentrequirements, mainly due to the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal running well belowcapacity. Other coal miners who ship through Gladstone have been less affectedby flooding. Share prices in this sector continue to rise in anticipation ofcontinuing demand from China. One analyst expects the coal price to rise by over$US35 per tonne in 2008 taking the price to almost $US90


----------



## storchyman (22 April 2008)

*Macarthur coal*

Has anyone heard when they will be starting ground work on their coal tenament in Monto QLD yet?

Last I heard the EIS was all sewn up and were ready for Leitons to start work there...?


----------



## michael_selway (24 May 2008)

*Re: Macarthur coal*



storchyman said:


> Has anyone heard when they will be starting ground work on their coal tenament in Monto QLD yet?
> 
> Last I heard the EIS was all sewn up and were ready for Leitons to start work there...?




Hm not sure, but it does look like $20 might be a little cheap at current forecasts etc

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 25.0 182.0 240.4 
DPS 18.0 12.5 91.5 126.3 *

thx

MS



> Date: 23/5/2008
> Author: Barry FitzGerald
> Source: The Age --- Page: B3
> The Australian sharemarket's reaction to ArcelorMittal's acquisitionof 14.9% in Macarthur Coal indicates a takeover may be imminent. Xstrata hasended its talks with Macarthur, China's CITIC is looking to sell its 17.6%stake, and founder Ken Talbot offered some of his own shares to Macarthur. TheForeign Investment Review Board would need to approve an anticipated $A4.2billion, $A20-per-share offer, but Arcelor is unlikely to face the sameacquisition obstacles as various Chinese companies, because it is notgovernment-backed
> ...






> Australian Coal Stocks Surge to Records on Takeover Speculation
> 
> By Jesse Riseborough
> 
> ...




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aCrFQW7kRlsU&refer=australia


----------



## noirua (28 June 2008)

I'm not a great lover of Macarthur Coal, to my cost, as it's not long ago that bad news set them on a strong downward path. The withdrawal of a potential bid seems to put a temporary roof on the share price at around $20 and other possible bidders will want to thoroughly check the books of MCC.
Will be interesting to see if the company has solved all its infrastructure problems and can get these large stockpiles of PCI coal shipped and away.


----------



## michael_selway (28 June 2008)

noirua said:


> I'm not a great lover of Macarthur Coal, to my cost, as it's not long ago that bad news set them on a strong downward path. The withdrawal of a potential bid seems to put a temporary roof on the share price at around $20 and other possible bidders will want to thoroughly check the books of MCC.
> Will be interesting to see if the company has solved all its infrastructure problems and can get these large stockpiles of PCI coal shipped and away.




Yep its veru compelling MCC at current levels, despite the drop






*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 21.2 182.0 328.4 
DPS 18.0 16.0 88.0 152.1 *


thx

MS


----------



## niknah (1 July 2008)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23949040-643,00.html



> SEEKING to protect themselves against a shrinking number of suppliers, global steelmaking giants ArcelorMittal and Posco paid $636 million for big slices of Macarthur Coal yesterday, increasing hurdles for any prospective predator.
> 
> With both steel companies apparently buying from Macarthur founder Ken Talbot at $20 a share, Indian-run Arcelor boosted its 14.9 per cent stake to 19.9 per cent, while South Korean Posco took a 10 per cent stake.
> 
> The sales leave Mr Talbot with a 4.9 per cent stake and, with Citic Resources owning 17.7 per cent, three foreign companies able to block acquisition of Macarthur, which produces pulverised coal used in steelmaking.




Looks like the end of any possible take overs here.


----------



## noirua (1 July 2008)

MCC in trading Halt with an announcement due by Thursday. Maybe this has proved to be a clever move by Arcelor Mittal in downgrading the worth of MCC before bidding?


----------



## jayinoz (1 July 2008)

Tilbert was lucky to get out with his golden parachute. He nearly blew it trying to go for trying to push for $22. I am sure the guys wanting a better deal artificially decreased the cost very quickly to under $17 the day b4 the halt.

Anyway Tilbert gets his few 100 million dollars and flies away. Good luck to him. 

For the rest of us who still have the stock- it was a good ride. Let us hope the new management get on with production as opposed to director greed- get back to fundamentals.


----------



## roland (10 July 2008)

MCC just took off after a profit upgrade. First time buyer, I picked up at $15.63. Maybe just a day trade for me - we will see....


----------



## roland (10 July 2008)

mmmm, OK - I'm out at $16.00, 2.something % will do me just fine. Some of the comments from others here didn't inspire me too much.


----------



## jayinoz (10 July 2008)

Very volatile stock of late with all the potential takeover action. Yet huge upgrade to profits looks great, with 3 huge companies as main shareholders that require the coal. They blasted through getting huge amounts of coal shipped out in June08...I do not see this abating. 

Huntley's will increase recommended share price substantially due to a huge June and huge demand by the main 3 stack holders. Their price recommendation was $17.98, they must be upgraded to over $22 in near future. Forget a takeover when they have unlimited demand for their coal- just get it out the ground asap & keep shipping away. Looking good to me. Will see but I look at MCC as a long term value stock, yet for some it can be good\bad day trades due to all the volatility recently.


----------



## michael_selway (10 July 2008)

roland said:


> MCC just took off after a profit upgrade. First time buyer, I picked up at $15.63. Maybe just a day trade for me - we will see....




Hm you sold out!?

Its quite uncanny as if you look at the numbers before annoucement, they predicted a relative "bad 2008" with only 21.1 EPS compared to 27.6 in 2007, mainly because of bottlenecks. but with a view to imrpove greatly in 2009 & 2010 (increased production)

However now since they have upgraded 2008 "suprisingly', then the 2009 & 2010 figures below are might be some what "understated" you think?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 21.1 192.5 331.7 
DPS 18.0 16.0 92.0 165.0 *

http://business.smh.com.au/macarthur-ups-profit-target-20080710-3cx7.html



> Macarthur ups profit target
> Email Print Normal font Large font Related Coverage
> Charts Macarthur Coal share price
> AdvertisementJuly 10, 2008 - 4:18PM
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## noirua (10 July 2008)

Hi m_s, This does not look like a dead cat bounce, more certain persons jumping back in again.  The forecast for MCC profits is really lousy compared with expectations for the companies expansion only a few years ago.  Profits should be in the order of $160 million with at least $400 million in 2009 - not impressed.


----------



## roland (10 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm you sold out!?
> 
> 
> MS




in hindsight, I should have hung around for the entire run to $17.00 - MCC had a very good day.

It was an opportunistic day trade chance, and since I hadn't studied the company in any depth, I was happy enough to bail at my target.


----------



## roland (24 July 2008)

Well after buying in $15.63 and selling at $16.00 I got back in at $15.00 only have the SP fall on me 

I am obviously sensitive to the fact that resources have currently soured a little, but MCC seems to be hammered down a little harder than other peer stocks.

I am wondering how the oil prices affect coal - does the cheaper oil shift interest away from coal? Where can I see up to date coal prices?


----------



## michael_selway (25 July 2008)

roland said:


> Well after buying in $15.63 and selling at $16.00 I got back in at $15.00 only have the SP fall on me
> 
> I am obviously sensitive to the fact that resources have currently soured a little, but MCC seems to be hammered down a little harder than other peer stocks.
> 
> I am wondering how the oil prices affect coal - does the cheaper oil shift interest away from coal? Where can I see up to date coal prices?




Hi coal prices updated weekly on the site below

http://www.globalcoal.com/

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 27.8 191.8 317.6 
DPS 18.0 16.1 95.0 167.1 *

I woudl say oil and gold are correlated in some ways in terms of same sector and sentiment wise but not overly

Also MCC's numbers are too good to give up for now anyway



> Date: 24/7/2008
> Author: Alexandra Cain
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 4
> Fully one eighth of the best-performing companies in the Small Ordinaries Indexin Australia are mining-related in mid-2008. This demonstrates that resourcesfirms are thriving in the current market, while many other segments of smallcapitalization stocks are faring less well. The highest-ranked non-miners areinsurance group Tower Australia, and Singapore Telecommunications. The overallleader in the index is Macarthur Coal, whose sales have risen from $A7.50 at thebeginning of the year to $A14.35 on 23 July. The worst performers are AllcoFinance Group and its Rubicon property trust offshoots





thx

MS


----------



## roland (31 July 2008)

Nice couple of days for MCC. The wild SP swings through the day have settled down - sort of not as much fun.

In any case, in at $15.00 out at $16.18 - held for 7 days ... I'm pretty happy with that


----------



## roland (4 August 2008)

Well, back in at $15.00. Starting to feel like a yo-yo. Most resources were weaker today, but MCC fell a little more heavily than others. MCC seems to have quite good end of day rally's - maybe it's the close out of the day shorts ????


----------



## roland (20 August 2008)

nice day for MCC - up 8.23% or just over $1.00 to $14.20

sold off my holding that I collected at $13.00, still have a parcel at $14.00 and one at $15.00

the announcement today was a fizzer - thought that finalising the force maejure and getting on with shipping from the flood affected mines would have given us a little run. unless of course the players knew this already hence today's rise.


----------



## noirua (20 August 2008)

Interesting the coal sector now, as the push and pulls of demand and recession act together. MCC is one of Australia's growth stories, until a few years ago, when all the problems at the mines occurred. A complicated puzzle now as the company becomes bid proof and people, at the same time wonder, if, one of the major holders will sell up or not?
MCC, like Gloucester Coal, are looking for the outcome of the bid situation at Felix Resources. If the big players come in and bid, and the price rises rapidly, then GCL and MCC could  look cheap.


----------



## jayinoz (20 August 2008)

Mmmmm nice raise of 5% 10 min b4 the announcement to ASX today. It good to hear the 2 mines mentioned will start being more productive shortly.

In the last month I have notified ASX of at least 20 occasions when prices rise b4 ASX announcements. Illegal trades- 100% sure. Will ASX do a thing- of course not.

If anyone knows of a subscription service that seems to know announcements b4 ASX- I would pay for the info. Oh boy... being a legal trader can be hard in Australia.

Anyway I am hoping from an 'Investor' point of view, not trader. That we are going through a Coal commodity Super Cycle. We have weathered the drop in the last 6 weeks, time for a rally- let us hope. I bought at a premium price when Talbot cashed out @ $20. So not my best move, yet after I analysed the company I felt I will hold for the long term and have a very low stop lose. Otherwise I would have been out at $13.50 stop loss to preserve money. It a HOLD for me and awaiting the resources Super Cycle over the next couple of years- hopefully. 

Very doubtful i will see over $20 again this year. Yet it a good company with good management and great resources. Great demand and let us hope the demand continues, grows and our company can get the most out of every single mine.


----------



## roland (28 August 2008)

Well, 2nd highest profit since listing and MCC gets punished ????

*MACARTHUR COAL ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY NPAT OF $72.7 MILLION*
ASX Announcement

Macarthur Coal (ASX: MCC) today announced a preliminary Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $72.7 million for the twelve months ended 30 June 2008. This is an increase of 9.3% on last year’s result and is primarily due to higher coal prices and the net gain on sale of a 19.61% interest in Monto Coal 2 Pty Ltd.

The preliminary final results for the 2008 financial year are based on financial
information which is in the process of being audited and includes:
                                          2008 2007 % Var
Sales revenue $M                   400.2 362.8 10.3
EBITDA $M                            136.2  98.1  38.8
EBIT $M                                117.7 81.9  43.7
NPAT $M                                72.7 66.5   9.3
Diluted earnings per share Cents 36.6 35.5   3.1

A final dividend of fourteen cents per share fully franked was declared which takes the total dividend for the year to 17 cents per share fully franked.


Seems like any announcement, good or bad is deemed to have fallen short in the minds of some.

Anyway, 10% gives me a chance to add.


----------



## michael_selway (28 August 2008)

roland said:


> Well, 2nd highest profit since listing and MCC gets punished ????
> 
> *MACARTHUR COAL ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY NPAT OF $72.7 MILLION*
> ASX Announcement
> ...




Hm it woudl have been good if it was the highest profit figure ever...

Anyway yeah still looks good imo

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.6 28.6 189.9 328.7 
DPS 18.0 20.0 95.0 174.7 *



> Date: 18/8/2008
> Author: Mark Ludlow
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 3
> Macarthur Coal CEO, Nicole Hollows, claims that nuclear power will be in use inAustralia within 10 years. Hollows says it is inevitable that nuclear energywill become a complementary energy source to coal-fired power. According toHollows, both nuclear and coal-fired power will be needed to meet global demandfor energy. There is speculation that nuclear energy may be placed back on thenational political agenda after 2010, due to "political necessity".Research commissioned by the Australian Government and carried out by formerTelstra CEO, Ziggy Switkowski, found that there is potential for nuclear energyto be viable in Australia within 10 years. However, the research also found thatit may be difficult for nuclear energy to compete against cheaper energy sources




thx

MS


----------



## roland (28 August 2008)

Is there a possibility the 10% drop today was because of this:

There was a late accounting adjustment to the consolidated NPAT in relation to the capital gain on the partial sale of Monto Coal 2 Pty Ltd. This late adjustment resulted in the NPAT for the year falling below the profit guidance of $80 million to $90 million. The late adjustment has no impact on either present or future profit from operations, or cashflows.


$72.7 million from an expected $80 - $90 million ... I suppose that is around 10%


----------



## michael_selway (14 September 2008)

roland said:


> Is there a possibility the 10% drop today was because of this:
> 
> There was a late accounting adjustment to the consolidated NPAT in relation to the capital gain on the partial sale of Monto Coal 2 Pty Ltd. This late adjustment resulted in the NPAT for the year falling below the profit guidance of $80 million to $90 million. The late adjustment has no impact on either present or future profit from operations, or cashflows.
> 
> ...




Yeah looks like it

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 177.7 315.6 339.5 
DPS 17.0 88.0 165.5 171.4 *






thx

MS


----------



## noirua (16 September 2008)

Quite a fall for MCC from the $20 level only, what seems, a few months ago.  After following the stock for ages I bought for the first time. It seemed as if someone bit my hand off when my bid went in.


----------



## roland (16 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Quite a fall for MCC from the $20 level only, what seems, a few months ago.  After following the stock for ages I bought for the first time. It seemed as if someone bit my hand off when my bid went in.




She"ll be right mate. A little down myself, but aint sweatin'. Be prepared for some anxious swings - it gaps up pretty heavily which makes for some cool jumps - makes up for the slow days when the lack of volume makes you feel like your ADSL modem has dropped off the planet.


----------



## noirua (17 September 2008)

roland said:


> She"ll be right mate. A little down myself, but aint sweatin'. Be prepared for some anxious swings - it gaps up pretty heavily which makes for some cool jumps - makes up for the slow days when the lack of volume makes you feel like your ADSL modem has dropped off the planet.




Hong Kong's Citic Resources are reported on Bloomberg to have raised their stake in Macarthur Coal to 20%.


----------



## michael_selway (17 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Quite a fall for MCC from the $20 level only, what seems, a few months ago.  After following the stock for ages I bought for the first time. It seemed as if someone bit my hand off when my bid went in.




I think you got a really good deal in current markey conditions 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 177.7 315.6 339.5 
DPS 17.0 88.0 165.5 171.4 *

Btw what other coal stocks are you looking at? 



> Date: 1/9/2008
> Author: Matthew Cranston
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 49
> A 4,900-hectare grazing property near Emerald in Queensland was bought for $A4.8million in late August 2008. Property developer Jim Gorman purchased Metro afterselling his stake in coal miner Jellinbah Resources, a company he helped developin the Bowen Basin with Ken Talbot 20 years ago




thx

MS


----------



## roland (1 October 2008)

MCC held up better than most yesterday.

Seems the coal industry is set to remain stable if the following report is correct:

from 
http://steelguru.com/news/index/200...coking_coal_prices_set_to_go_up_-_Report.html



> October 01, 2008
> 
> 
> *Global coking coal prices set to go up - Report*
> ...




Pre-open looks good for a positive day.


----------



## noirua (1 October 2008)

roland said:


> MCC held up better than most yesterday.
> 
> Seems the coal industry is set to remain stable if the following report is correct:
> 
> ...




Hi roland, I thought MCC were the largest exporters of thermal coal, not coking coal? Thermal coal has fallen by about 25% from its high this year, in US$ terms.


----------



## roland (9 October 2008)

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

MCC -49.87%


----------



## michael_selway (9 October 2008)

roland said:


> Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.
> 
> MCC -49.87%




Hm yeah what a turnaround

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
 2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 181.0 327.6 344.5 
DPS 17.0 89.5 170.0 177.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (14 October 2008)

roland said:


> Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.
> 
> MCC -49.87%



Don't worry about this depressed price, the company has got more Aussie Dollars pouring in, this quarter, than ever before. Looking fair, have a glass of red wine and a slice of toast and chill out - no worries at all - unless you're a forced seller.


----------



## roland (14 October 2008)

noirua said:


> Don't worry about this depressed price, the company has got more Aussie Dollars pouring in, this quarter, than ever before. Looking fair, have a glass of red wine and a slice of toast and chill out - no worries at all - unless you're a forced seller.




nah, not a forced seller - it's currently on my spreadsheet as a regular dividend income - it's gone past my threshold of worrying about SP


----------



## dj_420 (22 October 2008)

Nice move from MCC over the last couple of days, this stock looked very oversold for one with such high earning potential, I bought in a few days ago at an avg of 5.80 now. Looked good for a move up.

Whilst other resource companies are slashing forecasts and earnings MCC actually increased their estimates. Disc I hold CEY and MCC for fav coal stocks. I would now like to see CEY produce a qtrly as upbeat as MCC.

MCC looking exceptionally cheap based on forward earnings and dividends, assuming they can maintain those divies. Anyone else on ASF holding these guys still?


----------



## cruise61 (22 October 2008)

dj_420 said:


> Nice move from MCC over the last couple of days, this stock looked very oversold for one with such high earning potential, I bought in a few days ago at an avg of 5.80 now. Looked good for a move up.
> 
> Whilst other resource companies are slashing forecasts and earnings MCC actually increased their estimates. Disc I hold CEY and MCC for fav coal stocks. I would now like to see CEY produce a qtrly as upbeat as MCC.
> 
> MCC looking exceptionally cheap based on forward earnings and dividends, assuming they can maintain those divies. Anyone else on ASF holding these guys still?




Yes good move nice buy ,i grabbed a handfull yestreday at 6.22 not as good as yours but still a very nice kick start to what i hope is a long relationship.

Like they said even during the depressions the chinese still used normal power as do we all which accounts for 40% of the worlds power and rising

I cant see coal doing bad ,its not like steel which we can do without upgrading our cars but we need to see at night and keep cool in summer and warm in winter all these need coal for power source 

There are  quite a few great coal buys at the moment ,just need to research a bit :0)


----------



## gav (23 October 2008)

Watching this one with great interest.  Almost got to my target buy price the other day.  Future earnings look very promising.


----------



## Logique (23 October 2008)

Also in the coal sector have a read of GCL's quarterly announcement today, and like MCC, see if you can connect the positivity in the announcement with the negativity in the price action of recent months. 

Seems to be a monster disconnect going on between share price and company reporting and forecasts. It's down to external forces in the wider financial system I guess. Or the companies themselves are looking ahead through rose-tinted glasses?

I don't know whats going to happen next, but like gav and others am also watching with considerable interest, given the forecast growth and yields on these various coal sector stocks.


----------



## roland (13 November 2008)

Has MCC been hammered a little too hard? I thought it was only NSW Coal Miners that are going to be affected by the additional costs put forth by the Premier


----------



## derty (13 November 2008)

from: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/2011937/   (10-Nov)


> Coal miner MacArthur Coal Ltd. (MCC.AU) said Tuesday it's bracing for a downturn in demand for its pulverized coal used in steelmaking, given large cuts among global steel makers.
> 
> Steel makers such as ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT), which holds a 19.9% stake in MacArthur, recently announced output cuts of some 35%, and cuts at Chinese steel mills have forced major iron ore miners Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) and Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP) to trim production.




The question is how low will the sentiment take them? Panic seems to have set in. Rode the last uptrend for a bit and managed to get out at $7.30. Expecting these will be oversold so will watch and hope to get back in just after the turn.


----------



## noirua (24 November 2008)

Not my favourite coal stock by far, though it has had great growth over the years. Seems to have gained more confidence on profit forecasts and added a tad on Friday, against the general trend.


----------



## roland (25 November 2008)

Macarthur eyes BBI's coal port

BusinessSpectator
Macarthur Coal says it is interested in buying a stake in Babcock & Brown Infrastructure's (BBI) Dalrymple Bay coal terminal, if BBI wants to sell it, reported The Australian. 

Macarthur's chief executive Nicole Hollows said "we have a robust balance sheet and will consider opportunities," adding that "if the [Dalrymple Bay] terminal became available we will consider that an opportunity." 

It was reported that BBI had put its $2.3 billion Dalrymple Bay coal port up for sale this week, to cover debt and find a partner to fund long-term expansion. 
It was thought that BBI had been approached by a consortium of miners interested in buying Dalrymple Bay, and has issued confidentiality agreements to interested parties. 

A BBI spokeswoman confirmed that the group was testing the market after port users approached it. 

She said selling a stake could help fund the port's expansion, but that this did not mean a sale would happen. 

She did not confirm whether BBI would want to limit a potential sale to a 49 per cent stake. 

But Ms Hollows indicated that interested parties could be eyeing a bigger slice.


----------



## noirua (25 November 2008)

The present and past views of analysts on Macarthur Coal Ltd.,
http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU:MCC


----------



## roland (5 December 2008)

well, like most of my other stocks, Macarthur Coal are not worth a brass razoo any more. It's gotten to a level that it's not even worth pulling out of


----------



## J.B.Nimble (6 December 2008)

roland said:


> well, like most of my other stocks, Macarthur Coal are not worth a brass razoo any more. It's gotten to a level that it's not even worth pulling out of




Then hang in there and be patient - SRL and FLX both in talks with prospective buyers of coal assets at present. The action is just starting...


----------



## noirua (9 December 2008)

J.B.Nimble said:


> Then hang in there and be patient - SRL and FLX both in talks with prospective buyers of coal assets at present. The action is just starting...



All coal stocks are very high risk with the problem China and Indonesia could start dumping coal at some stage.
On the other hand, Macarthur have a much more solid setup now and have even allowed for having to sell PCI coal as thermal at some stage.
Probably the most solid coal stock at the moment with genuine prospects.


----------



## noirua (16 December 2008)

There we goes, Macarthur have announced a drop in profits in the first half soon after estimating.  Advice, don't estimate, keep quiet.
Profits are now set in the range $75 - $125 million against an estimate of $150 - $160 million to Dec 31st. Worryingly, there will be no interim dividend. Is confidence at MCC evaporating?
Cutbacks now at Moorevale and Coppabella in QLD and shipments postponed.
Sales forecast of 3.9 million tonnes against a previous forecast of 5 million tonnes.


----------



## michael_selway (16 December 2008)

noirua said:


> There we goes, Macarthur have announced a drop in profits in the first half soon after estimating.  Advice, don't estimate, keep quiet.
> Profits are now set in the range $75 - $125 million against an estimate of $150 - $160 million to Dec 31st. Worryingly, there will be no interim dividend. Is confidence at MCC evaporating?
> Cutbacks now at Moorevale and Coppabella in QLD and shipments postponed.
> Sales forecast of 3.9 million tonnes against a previous forecast of 5 million tonnes.




Yep and just wondering, do you know what % of MCC sales are thermal coal as opposed to cokign coal?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 135.8 177.1 135.7 
DPS 17.0 68.0 114.7 70.0 *







Also interesting is:

*16th of October: ASX release Upgrade the Half Year Profit Guidance and then on
13th of November: ASX release, Reaffirm that is on track to meet its profit guidance and then on
16th of December: ASX release, announce Half Year Profit Downgrade and suspension of interim dividend*



> Date: 3/12/2008
> Author: Tristan Swanwick
> Source: The Courier-Mail --- Page: 3
> A committal hearing in the Brisbane Magistrate's Court has found KenTalbot, ex-CEO of Macarthur Coal, and Gordon Nuttall, former Queenslandgovernment minister, will stand trial on corruption charges. The District Courtwill hear the evidence in 2009, with Nuttall maintaining loan payments made tohim by Talbot were above board





thx

MS


----------



## noirua (17 December 2008)

Hi m_s, mainly PCI coal as the company built washery plant to upgrade the thermal - FLX are doing the same at their Yarrabee mine. In May this was great news and now most unfortunate. 
Still, it can be sold as thermal coal but the profit margin is much slimmer.


----------



## noirua (28 January 2009)

What a right mess we've got ourselves into.  

MCC seem to be heading for exchange losses on hedging of around $80 - $100 million ($48 million in the first half) for the full year as the positions run out on 30th June 2009. 

Coal sales have improved in the second quarter but more thermal is being sold in place of more profitable PCI coal.

Still, the stock has fallen from around $20 right down below $3.00, so the punishment appears well and truly done, maybe overdone.


----------



## michael_selway (28 January 2009)

noirua said:


> What a right mess we've got ourselves into.
> 
> MCC seem to be heading for exchange losses on hedging of around $80 - $100 million ($48 million in the first half) for the full year as the positions run out on 30th June 2009.
> 
> ...




Hm yeah could be a bottom in this one

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 68.1 65.0 128.7 
DPS 17.0 9.0 16.0 56.7 *








> Date: 28/1/2009
> Author: Ayesha de Kretser
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 14
> Coal prices are expected to fall dramatically in the year from 1 April 2009.Supply constraints lifted prices to record highs in 2008. The price of cokingcoal is expected to drop by up to 60 per cent, to $US120 a tonne. Thermal coalis forecast to fall by up to 45 per cent to $US70 a tonne
> ...


----------



## gav (20 March 2009)

MCC has gone through the roof lately.  Late Feb it was in the $2.30's, closed at $3.50 today!  

And the majority of the rise has been this week.  Anyone know why?


----------



## roofa (24 March 2009)

gav said:


> MCC has gone through the roof lately.  Late Feb it was in the $2.30's, closed at $3.50 today!
> 
> And the majority of the rise has been this week.  Anyone know why?




Good solid company with a bright future that was oversold like so many others IMO. Why was it sold down to $2.30? Back hander for no dividend perhaps. But it did provide an opportunity to those interested to acquire at a more than reasonable entry price.


----------



## noirua (27 March 2009)

Seems to be a lot of people looking for income in the coal sector together with a takeover bonus in mind. Risk in markets looks a lot less now and MCC are a well run company, with a long history of growth.


----------



## tommymac (2 April 2009)

Analysts are divided in regards to their recommendations of MCC.

On Aspect Huntley they have 13 analysts with recommendations for MCC.

Sell  -5
Hold -3
Buy  -5

:dunno::dunno::dunno:


----------



## roofa (2 April 2009)

tommymac said:


> Analysts are divided in regards to their recommendations of MCC.
> 
> On Aspect Huntley they have 13 analysts with recommendations for MCC.
> 
> ...




Yep, that's exactly how I feel about MCC. I saw that IOOF made a decent profit out of this one over a 2-3 week period in March.


----------



## noirua (3 April 2009)

MCC may well have fallen much too far and in the general stock recovery MAY well continue to prove this weeks moves to have signalled an opportunity.
Most of the bad news on currency hedging, higher grade coal being sold as thermal and cancellation of the interim dividend, are well known.


----------



## michael_selway (3 April 2009)

roofa said:


> Yep, that's exactly how I feel about MCC. I saw that IOOF made a decent profit out of this one over a 2-3 week period in March.









*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 71.3 37.5 52.3 
DPS 17.0 4.0 13.7 16.0 *



> Date: 23/3/2009
> Author: Luke Forrestal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
> Macarthur Coal appears attractive to mining investor, Nathan Tinkler. Tinkler sold his 10 per cent stake in the coal miner in May 2009 for $A20 a share. He said its current share price of about $A3.50 makes a takeover appealing, while management are not increasing the value of the company. However, he said that the major shareholders are unlikely to accept an offer.






> 2249 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades Macarthur Coal (MCC.AU) to Buy from
> Neutral as settlement of coal prices boosts forecasts for miners. Notes settlement of
> hard coking coal at US$129 a metric ton versus UBS forecast of US$85 a ton. Says miners
> have demonstrated their pricing power, which results from a highly concentrated market,
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## noirua (3 April 2009)

China CITIC ups stake in Macarthur Coal:  http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSYD42954320090402


----------



## roofa (3 April 2009)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 71.3 37.5 52.3 
DPS 17.0 4.0 13.7 16.0

Got this one >5% off it's low so again more than happy to hold for the longer term.


----------



## noirua (7 April 2009)

Macarthur coal appears to be on a roll.  Cancelling the interim dividend whilst sorting out coal supplies seems to be a trick they've got right for once. Some stake building is going on and interest may continue on for a while yet, on the back of this.


----------



## noirua (15 April 2009)

noirua said:


> Macarthur coal appears to be on a roll.  Cancelling the interim dividend whilst sorting out coal supplies seems to be a trick they've got right for once. Some stake building is going on and interest may continue on for a while yet, on the back of this.



The roll continues for Macarthur as the stock price chases along in a seeming race with Felix Resources.  Both companies seem similar in their present outlook in unloading thermal and PCI coal on to the spot market.
PCI coal appears to be the name of the game here as customers prefer this, now cheap, coal instead of lesser grades of thermal. 
Macarthur could well surprise here with better than expected end year results.


----------



## michael_selway (16 April 2009)

noirua said:


> The roll continues for Macarthur as the stock price chases along in a seeming race with Felix Resources.  Both companies seem similar in their present outlook in unloading thermal and PCI coal on to the spot market.
> PCI coal appears to be the name of the game here as customers prefer this, now cheap, coal instead of lesser grades of thermal.
> Macarthur could well surprise here with better than expected end year results.




Nice move up

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.0 72.4 32.0 52.3 
DPS 17.0 3.0 9.7 16.0 *



> Date: 23/3/2009
> Author: Luke Forrestal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
> Macarthur Coal appears attractive to mining investor, Nathan Tinkler. Tinkler sold his 10 per cent stake in the coal miner in May 2009 for $A20 a share. He said its current share price of about $A3.50 makes a takeover appealing, while management are not increasing the value of the company. However, he said that the major shareholders are unlikely to accept an offer.






> 2249 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades Macarthur Coal (MCC.AU) to Buy from
> Neutral as settlement of coal prices boosts forecasts for miners. Notes settlement of
> hard coking coal at US$129 a metric ton versus UBS forecast of US$85 a ton. Says miners
> have demonstrated their pricing power, which results from a highly concentrated market,
> ...









thx

MS


----------



## noirua (17 April 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Nice move up
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2008 2009 2010 2011
> ...



Nice group of assessments there m_s, seems to cover the overall view of Macarthur Coal at the present time.


----------



## noirua (19 June 2009)

MCC have announced a successful oversubscribed placing of $190 million of company stock at $6.00 a share.
Existing holders will be given the opportunity to buy up to $15,000 of stock at $6.00 a share.  An announcement on the issue will be given to the ASX shortly.
The money will go towards the development of the Middlemount Mine.


----------



## noirua (18 July 2009)

Macarthur Coal have run up very quickly indeed and all this new stock and need for cash, puts increased dividends further down the line. A good company now that needs these higher prices for thermal coal to spread to the PCI coal sector as well.
Need the cash for further investments elsewhere, not wanting to break my 70% to 80% cash and bonds rule, so I'm out despite a small loss overall this time.


----------



## jayinoz (17 August 2009)

MCC has run up 9% today, I can find no news from anywhere on why this is so.... Anyone know any reason why this stock is running up so quickly when the commodities have come right down today???

Darn it- I should have purchase their $6 offer just over a month ago.

I do not think I should make the same mistake with the WHC offer of $3.05, when it is trading 15% over this price.

MCC was trading at only approx 5% over their offer for the majority of the offer period. Now it skyrocketing. Fundamentally at PE= 11 it still quite good yet I would like better than 2% yields. Wish this company would pass on their profits greater than 2% pa.

It very rare to get over 5% yield in the Energy\Materials sector. Yet the few that have had big yield have really run up hot in the last month. Eg. Boart


----------



## Miro (28 September 2009)

MacArthur Coal has released its FY2009 financial report

URL: http://www.macarthurcoal.com.au/AR09/index.html

Quickly looking at the P/E ratio, earnings, debt/equity ... looks like it's heading higher


----------



## Logique (31 March 2010)

Trading halt this morning, anyone got any info?
CEY and WHC ran up, but are coming back off, and importantly are not themselves in a halt.  Dalrymple Bay loader facilities came back on stream sooner than had been anticipated, don't know if this is related somehow.


----------



## YELNATS (31 March 2010)

$13.00 per share very conditional offer from Peabody (US  company?), however not recommended by MCC directors. Took some profit this afternoon above $14.00. Directors still interested in proceeding with Gloucester merger. Interesting times for MCC.


----------



## roland (31 March 2010)

I'm out at $14.10 - can you believe that I have been holding since 4/8/2008 ??

All in all, did quite well, dividends as well. Still a little annoyed that I didn't go for the $6.00 offerring a little while back but I was already over committed.


----------



## YELNATS (1 April 2010)

Took further profit today at $14.90. How much higher will this one go bearing in mind the Peabody offer is $13.00.

Still have a minor holding, very hesitant and sorry to sell it off, but you can't have your cake and eat it too.


----------



## Sharejon (9 April 2010)

These are indeed interesting times for Macarthur, with Peabody and New Hope wanting to take over, whilst the Gloucester Deal is around as well. I wonder if Peabody will come back with a 3rd improved offer?


edit: as we speak Macarthur just opened approximately $1 higher


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (9 April 2010)

roland said:


> I'm out at $14.10 - can you believe that I have been holding since 4/8/2008 ??
> 
> All in all, did quite well, dividends as well. Still a little annoyed that I didn't go for the $6.00 offerring a little while back but I was already over committed.




I'm out too at $15.88. Bought just over 12 months ago at $3.95.  Didn't go for SPP either.


----------



## noirua (3 June 2010)

A funny old stock are MCC now. No doubt about its PCI coal credentials; and semi-hard coke potential going forward.
Two bids by the wayside plus the bid for GCL in the bonfire.

No marks out of ten for the way Macarthur's directors dealt with this one.

Are MCC worth $16, $15, $12, $10 who knows. 
Probably worth about $12 but the MCC directors would get the right hump if someone bid that. Personally I'd only bid about $10.50 but all that PCI coal may well excite the Chinese.
In other words it's a funny old stock with great credentials and a board who seem to want about $18 a share.


----------



## Hopeful (25 August 2010)

Down 9% today guddmnit. I see $10 as the next target, but who knows, if BHP want it , it will skyrocket. Why does it drop 9% ex dividend when the divvie is just 17cents per share?


----------



## oldblue (25 August 2010)

Hopeful said:


> Down 9% today guddmnit. I see $10 as the next target, but who knows, if BHP want it , it will skyrocket. Why does it drop 9% ex dividend when the divvie is just 17cents per share?




I wouldn't blame the ex-divvy thing.

Rather, I'd be looking at the dilutive effect of the Institutional capital placement of $438m worth of shares at $11.50 ps.


----------



## Hopeful (25 August 2010)

oldblue said:


> I wouldn't blame the ex-divvy thing.
> Rather, I'd be looking at the dilutive effect of the Institutional capital placement of $438m worth of shares at $11.50 ps.




Closed at 11.25 , more than factoring in the dilution. Thanks for the reply.


----------



## noirua (9 September 2010)

Analysts remain fairly neutral of McArthur Coal after all the takeover fuss has died down. Remaining investors must still be hoping the management can get $20 a share for this Australian PCI Coal favourite.
The company still has a lot to prove on the profitability front but investors know that Centennial went for high bucks and they're no McArthur Coal - I'm sure the directors are quietly thinking that.


----------



## noirua (12 September 2010)

noirua said:


> Analysts remain fairly neutral of Macarthur Coal after all the takeover fuss has died down. Remaining investors must still be hoping the management can get $20 a share for this Australian PCI Coal favourite.
> The company still has a lot to prove on the profitability front but investors know that Centennial went for high bucks and they're no Macarthur Coal - I'm sure the directors are quietly thinking that.




Want a gamble that shouldn't be a gamble; and that is Macarthur Coal. On its own it looks as if it will continue to expand and become increasingly more profitable.

Surely another bid will come for Macarthur I hear so many chorus, on the other hand, the stock is not cheap on a yield under 2%. But an Asian bidder may be prepared to pay well over the odds for the PCI Coal King of Australia.

However indeed though, if no bid ever arrives again we could see the stock price not progressing and that's not good on a minute yield.

I feel the Macarthur directors pray every night, perhaps together - who knows - and hope for a $20+ bid and maybe even $24. But then, Felix Resources shareholders wanted $24 and the big shareholders AMCI, Travers Duncan and Brian Flannery succumbed to recommending just $18.05; I hear all their UK investors, former investors now, crying out 'Jolly bad show'.

So we see the direct gamble in MCC that overshadows the companies growth and optomistic view of PCI coal.


----------



## SilverRanger (12 July 2011)

Peabody is now having another go at MCC @ $15.5, is it just (yet again) another bad timing or did they come prepared for the carbon tax?


----------

