# Are we there yet?



## prs (20 January 2008)

Have the markets bottomed out yet? Has all this negativity and uncertainty finished yet?
Many of you are skilled at judging the market, you have seen developments over many years, you've seen companies come and go, seen share prices rise and fall and bull and bear markets. I would dearly love some of you to inform me and any other new investors what you believe will happen to share prices from here on. In particular I have a hefty investment in MTN and other uranium shares. Last week I saw MTN fall beneath what I paid for the shares and then claw its way back. Would someone please answer the following questions for my peace of mind?
When do you believe the markets will rally?
What will it take for this to happen?
Where do you see the uranium sector in the short and long terms?
MTN peaked in 07 at about $6.80. Do you believe it may surpass its all time high in the not too distant future? 

I would be truly grateful for honest opinions


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## dhukka (20 January 2008)

prs,

Whilst it's not my call to make (I'm not a mod), it seems you are asking for advice, which is not allowed on this forum. If you dig around you will get answers to most of your questions. People often offer up their opinions on where they think the market is headed. But remember that's all it is, an opinion. 

From memory I think there is a uranium thread and an MTN thread for conversations specific to those areas.


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## doctorj (20 January 2008)

Thanks dhukka, I agree.

prs, please have a read of https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9533 and consider rephrasing your question.  We are able to discuss things generally, but cannot offer specific advice.


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## Sean K (20 January 2008)

I think the market will bottom, at some point.


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## Timmy (20 January 2008)

kennas said:


> I think the market will bottom, at some point.




Well, I literally LOL'd!


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## surfingman (20 January 2008)

Its big!!!!!


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## Timmy (20 January 2008)

prs said:


> Have the markets bottomed out yet? Has all this negativity and uncertainty finished yet?
> Many of you are skilled at judging the market, you have seen developments over many years, you've seen companies come and go, seen share prices rise and fall and bull and bear markets. I would dearly love some of you to inform me and any other new investors what you believe will happen to share prices from here on. In particular I have a hefty investment in MTN and other uranium shares. Last week I saw MTN fall beneath what I paid for the shares and then claw its way back. Would someone please answer the following questions for my peace of mind?
> When do you believe the markets will rally?
> What will it take for this to happen?
> ...




Mods, I wouldn't be too quick to condemn this post, the part I have put in bold and underlined is, IMHO, against policy, but the rest of the post is within bounds right?  Can just the offending part of the post be excised?


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## Timmy (20 January 2008)

surfingman said:


> Its big!!!!!




Mmmm...crunchy


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## Sean K (20 January 2008)

Timmy said:


> Mods, I wouldn't be too quick to condemn this post, the part I have put in bold and underlined is, IMHO, against policy, but the rest of the post is within bounds right?  Can just the offending part of the post be excised?



Yes, the post is fine IMO. It's not designed to ramp MTN in the slightest, but a call out to others to provide reassurance that this stock may eventually get back to these levels. That discussion belongs in the MTN thread, not here, so I will not comment..........


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## M34N (20 January 2008)

Well, according to the ever reliable Herald Sun, things are going to get worse, much worse. I mean just look at these words they used throughout the article... I had a good LOL at this in the morning:

"mayhem"
"free fall"
"horror"
"plunge"
"meltdown"
"tumbling"
"plummeted"

I wonder if they stopped when they had no scarier words left to use in Microsoft Word's thesaurus?  

I'm so glad I don't buy this rubbish. Reminds me of their articles in their February and August corrections last year.


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## Sean K (20 January 2008)

M34N said:


> Well, according to the ever reliable Herald Sun, things are going to get worse, much worse. I mean just look at these words they used throughout the article... I had a good LOL at this in the morning:
> 
> "mayhem"
> "free fall"
> ...



To turn this around a little, I remember the HS jumping on all time highs of the past 20 years saying :

'all time highs'
'markets sore'
'it's gold'
'share values spike'
'super funds go balistic'
'jump on the train'
'toot toot'

etc, etc.

The HS is probably one of the best indicatorors of a turn around.

And, when Wayne changes his avatar to something other that a furry animal.


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## M34N (20 January 2008)

Whatever sells papers, hey? :

It's hardly even news worthy, all it does is give the "average mum & dad investor" another story to talk about other than the usual 'interest rates are rising', 'petrol is skyrocketing', yadda yadda stories you see plastered on these papers and A Current Affairs/Today Tonight.

Anyways, apologies for hi-jacking the thread, just thought it would be interesting to post that to show what the "average" joe blow thinks about the market at the moment...


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## dhukka (20 January 2008)

IMHO the bigger issue than whether this constitutes asking for advice is that the information prs asks for is already being discussed in depth on other threads. Do we really need to start another thread on where the market is heading?


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## vishalt (20 January 2008)

hs said:
			
		

> The US market ignored news of a $165 billion stimulus package to kick start the economy announced by President George Bush on Friday, sparking fears of a US recession and more losses on the Australian market.



Funny thing was the markets started reversing immediately after Bush announced the plan, which the markets didn't like. 

Well done HS.


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## Real1ty (20 January 2008)

kennas said:


> To turn this around a little, I remember the HS jumping on all time highs of the past 20 years saying :
> 
> 'all time highs'
> 'markets sore'
> ...






> 'markets *sore*'




It most certainly is


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## Sean K (20 January 2008)

Real1ty said:


> It most certainly is



Damn you! It's 9.30pm on Saturday night here. I'm going out. 

:alcohol:


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## prs (20 January 2008)

Guys, It was never my intention to ramp and I'd appreciate some forgiveness for my ignorance. I don't spend as much time as I'd like searching through all the threads to be boned up as much as some of you. However, I take the comments on the chin and retract the request for direct advice.
I guess when a man has worked for 40odd years with no sight of retirement on the horizon and suddenly goes against his normal conservative life policies in an endeavour to make sufficient money to achieve that goal, he gets **** scared when his life savings are going backwards. Yes, stupid I hear you say, but I had to do something. 
It's pretty obvious that I have a significant investment in that particular uranium coy and what's happening is causing me a great deal of concern. 
I am seeking  your thoughts with a view towards reassurance that the market and MTN won't go down much further and that the indicators you guys are aware of either say it's going to get better or it's going to get worse. 
I constantly read the MTN thread but there's nothing happened there since 15/12/07, hence the question.
Please accepy my apologies and I will read the thread put up by doctorj.


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## bunyip (20 January 2008)

prs said:


> Guys, It was never my intention to ramp and I'd appreciate some forgiveness for my ignorance. I don't spend as much time as I'd like searching through all the threads to be boned up as much as some of you. However, I take the comments on the chin and retract the request for direct advice.
> I guess when a man has worked for 40odd years with no sight of retirement on the horizon and suddenly goes against his normal conservative life policies in an endeavour to make sufficient money to achieve that goal, he gets **** scared when his life savings are going backwards. Yes, stupid I hear you say, but I had to do something.
> It's pretty obvious that I have a significant investment in that particular uranium coy and what's happening is causing me a great deal of concern.
> I am seeking  your thoughts with a view towards reassurance that the market and MTN won't go down much further and that the indicators you guys are aware of either say it's going to get better or it's going to get worse.
> ...




There's not a man or woman alive who knows when or at what level this market will stop falling. 
What I can tell you after many years of market experience is that whatever the market is doing at present, it's unlikely to stop doing tomorrow or even next week. 
When a market is heading decisively in one direction it usually keeps going further in that direction than most people thought it would go.
The market is downtrending strongly at present, so that should tell you something.
Furthermore, the news from the US is all bad for their market, and it's their market that has a big influence on our market.

Bunyip


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## Timmy (20 January 2008)

dhukka said:


> IMHO the bigger issue than whether this constitutes asking for advice is that the information prs asks for is already being discussed in depth on other threads. Do we really need to start another thread on where the market is heading?




In my inititial response on this thread I concentrated on the 'personal advice' angle, but thanks for this dhukka I think the points you raised are more pertinent.  Re another thread on where the market is heading - sign of the times I suppose.



prs said:


> I guess when a man has worked for 40odd years with no sight of retirement on the horizon and suddenly goes against his normal conservative life policies in an endeavour to make sufficient money to achieve that goal, he gets **** scared when his life savings are going backwards. Yes, stupid I hear you say, but I had to do something.
> It's pretty obvious that I have a significant investment in that particular uranium coy and what's happening is causing me a great deal of concern.
> I am seeking  your thoughts with a view towards reassurance that the market and MTN won't go down much further and that the indicators you guys are aware of either say it's going to get better or it's going to get worse.
> I constantly read the MTN thread but there's nothing happened there since 15/12/07, hence the question.
> Please accepy my apologies and I will read the thread put up by doctorj.




prs - I write this with the utmost respect, if I am out of line I apologise in advance; I am not in your circumstances and can only imagine what you are feeling given you have described what is happening as causing you a great deal of concern.  Asking us to have regard to your personal financial circumstance is also something that without an appropriate Australian Financial Services Licence no-one is actually permitted to do.  But, hey, bugger that.  In your circumstances please consider VERY carefully if you want what you describe as a significant portion of your life savings in any one "investment".  Regardless of what company it is (I know NOTHING about the uranium industry or that particular company).  Eggs in one basket and all that.  Please consider what it would mean to you if the share price of that one company was to halve from here, or to fall even further.  Such moves DO happen - all the time.  

The sharemarket IS a risky place, and the risk is multiplied manyfold with inexperience.  I am not saying do not trade/invest in the market, not at all, but I am saying you have gone about it the wrong way and you are likely to have considerably more concern.  Again, if I am out of line, sorry.  

I think you could do much worse than to heed the words of "bunyip", below:



bunyip said:


> There's not a man or woman alive who knows when or at what level this market will stop falling.
> What I can tell you after many years of market experience is that whatever the market is doing at present, it's unlikely to stop doing tomorrow or even next week.
> When a market is heading decisively in one direction it usually keeps going further in that direction than most people thought it would go.
> The market is downtrending strongly at present, so that should tell you something.
> ...




Good luck with whatever it is you decide to do.


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## nizar (20 January 2008)

kennas said:


> I think the market will bottom, at some point.




I tend to agree, lol


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## 0110 (20 January 2008)

On a related point what would ASF users consider to be the key indicators of an imminent turn around?

Do you see it be key U.S. economic numbers or something more gradual?


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## Plugger (20 January 2008)

I hope we're there! I've just read about news items coming out in the US this week, and one can't expect them to be good at all. Surely this would mean another red week passed on to us?


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## Timmy (20 January 2008)

0110 said:


> On a related point what would ASF users consider to be the key indicators of an imminent turn around?
> 
> Do you see it be key U.S. economic numbers or something more gradual?




Interesting discussion relevant to your questions on the most recent few pages of this thread.


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## korrupt_1 (21 January 2008)

prs said:


> Have the markets bottomed out yet? Has all this negativity and uncertainty finished yet?




That is the million dollar question... if anyone knows of where the bottom is,.. they're not going to be reading these forum as they're likely sailing on their $20M sailing boat...

My feel is that there is still more downside to all this before things get a little better. Just read all the news out there!! It's a nightmare. Good news is like a needle in a haystack these days. Mind you, history has shown that when the market looks the worse, and all hope has been dashed and massive amounts of people dumping stocks,.. THAT is 'usually' a turning point... all that needs to fuel the turn-around is a follow up of good news and presto, investors will come flooding back with optimism and plenty of cash. no-one wants to miss a ride and everyone will jump on and the rally back to record highs is back on!!!!


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## mfp (21 January 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> THAT is 'usually' a turning point... all that needs to fuel the turn-around is a follow up of good news and presto, investors will come flooding back with optimism and plenty of cash. no-one wants to miss a ride and everyone will jump on *and the rally back to record highs is back on!!!!:*)




LOL, you're dreaming aren't you?


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## bunyip (21 January 2008)

Roughly sixty large cap US companies have earning reports due out this week.
It's difficult to imagine many of these companies reporting earnings that inspire investor confidence. Mind you, the large institutions who invest in these companies usually have a pretty good idea of the probable earnings results of each company, and these expectations are usually factored into the share price already. 
A company that announces earnings that are pretty much in line with expectations is not going to immediately have its share price crucified.
But those whose earnings are way below expectations - they're the ones that really get hammered.
So how many of these 'below expectations' earnings will we see this week? Enough to plunge the US market even further, and drag our market down with it?
I have no idea.....but I'm pleased I know how to use put options.

Bunyip


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## dhukka (21 January 2008)

bunyip said:


> Roughly sixty large cap US companies have earning reports due out this week.
> It's difficult to imagine many of these companies reporting earnings that inspire investor confidence. Mind you, the large institutions who invest in these companies usually have a pretty good idea of the probable earnings results of each company, and these expectations are usually factored into the share price already.
> A company that announces earnings that are pretty much in line with expectations is not going to immediately have its share price crucified.
> But those whose earnings are way below expectations - they're the ones that really get hammered.
> ...




Take a look here post 1247. There is some potentially good earnings news this week as well as bad.


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## bunyip (21 January 2008)

dhukka said:


> Take a look here post 1247. There is some potentially good earnings news this week as well as bad.




Ah....A mixed bag by the look of things. This should be an interesting week in the US....I imagine there'll be some very nervous investors around!


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## korrupt_1 (21 January 2008)

mfp said:


> LOL, you're dreaming aren't you?




yeh I'm dreaming... don't we all.. but in all serriousness... look at the massive rally back in August 07. When the market started recover and conditions were overbought, investors still jumped on in FEAR that they may miss out on the gains, whilst at the same time, the fundamental problems still exists... ie what has fundamentally changed between July/August and Sept/Oct??? Nothing. Yet new highs were made?!! Silly times...


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## wayneL (21 January 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> yeh I'm dreaming... don't we all.. but in all serriousness... look at the massive rally back in August 07. When the market started recover and conditions were overbought, investors still jumped on in FEAR that they may miss out on the gains, whilst at the same time, the fundamental problems still exists... ie what has fundamentally changed between July/August and Sept/Oct??? Nothing. Yet new highs were made?!! Silly times...



It was being spun that the credit crunch would not affect the economy... denial.

Now, even Art Laffer accepts that recession is likely. Reality bites.


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## dhukka (21 January 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> yeh I'm dreaming... don't we all.. but in all serriousness... look at the massive rally back in August 07. When the market started recover and conditions were overbought, investors still jumped on in FEAR that they may miss out on the gains, whilst at the same time, the fundamental problems still exists... ie what has fundamentally changed between July/August and Sept/Oct??? Nothing. Yet new highs were made?!! Silly times...




korrupt,

Wayne makes a good point. Ask yourself this; has the economic scenario improved, stayed about the same, or gotten worse since August last year? 

I'll give you a couple of examples of why I think it has gotten worse. Back in August US corporate earnings for *4Q08* were forecast at double digit growth. The latest estimate from S&P is *-13.6%*. As late as early August Treasury Secretary Paulson said the subprime issue was contained. Paulson now says it is the greatest threat facing the US economy. It has since spread to Alt-A and even prime. It is not and never was just a subprime issue. 

In August did anyone think Citigroup and Merrill Lynch would write down close to *$40* billion between them? Did anyone think that Countrywide was bankrupt? Did anyone think that AMBAC would lose 90% of it's stock price, lose it's AAA rating and be unable to raise capital? Did anyone forsee the Centro debacle? I could go on but you get the point.

You could make the argument that all the bad news is now known and is therefore largely priced in. However I think it is more instructive to ask, what is not known? Think about what we didn't know in August 2007 and what we know now. What we will know in 6 months from now?


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## MS+Tradesim (21 January 2008)

dhukka said:


> Think about what we didn't know in August 2007 and what we know now. What we will know in 6 months from now?




I'm going to take a punt and say in 6mths we'll know how big the next lot of bank/brokerage writedowns will be after AMBAC and MBIA lose their AAA ratings.


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