# Gold Day Trading



## Free Soul

Hey.  Is there a good place for UK users to day trade gold vs USD/GBP etc online such as is the case with spreads etc such as in forex trading.  I noticed bullionvault do this, is this a good place or are there better/cheaper services out there?


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## Joules MM1

looks like dirt less like gold


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## Joules MM1

sub 1200's is the major rotation i'm looking for (or an impulsive continuity of the monthly downtrend)

nearterm 1224's likely target


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## Joules MM1

observations


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## Joules MM1

more downside


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## Joules MM1

elvis caught in the building ?


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## Joules MM1

on a larger context, reviewing

easy to get trapped, bias is south versus logic; bigger chop


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## Modest

Watching the nice whack down off your 1.273 Level


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## CanOz

Caught that squeeze last night but still not sure what the catalyst was?


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## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Caught that squeeze last night but still not sure what the catalyst was?




well done, you alnight vampire

energy release from trapped shorts playing more-of-the-same game

pricing tends to make me think we have several more weeks of this large zonal chop
(trading sewerage for trend followers, everyone else where's a grin)

107's are far more common than most would 
log and i've seen 107's print at several swing sizes in fx too
in this jpeg you see the ratio as 1.07% of the previous set of rusky dolls all in abc's
energy breaks are good for size capturing around 3-6 handles otherwise this is mostly sushi


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## Joules MM1

probably




next target upside 1285's

or 



	

		
			
		

		
	
 ugly in so many ways


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## Joules MM1

no impulsive sell (and the low at 1265's front month did not have an impulsive lift)


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## Joules MM1

oh the weather outsides delightful, shorts smash longs inciteful
and if you see it flow, let go let go let goooooaaaahhh

are we trendy yet?

messages in the chop and the traps


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## Joules MM1

the proof in the pudding is in the chomping, when pricing goes into pacman it should display symmetry and that symmetry should be in close proximatry ....be relative to the zone, break-away or in the basic impulsive construct in this instance

the bounce needs to show price action that supports the resistance ratio 
(as a % of a previous price swing) and then have bars that say the ratio is valid, so, by itself, the ratio
is merely a guideline..if the ratio fails that does not negate the larger trend but it does warn that a larger bounce requires me to look for other reasons than immediate trend construct and maybe caused by
auction mechanics rather than trend construct (such as time of day or liquidity withdraws for news release)


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## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> the proof in the pudding is in the chomping, when pricing goes into pacman it should display symmetry and that symmetry should be in close proximatry ....be relative to the zone, break-away or in the basic impulsive construct in this instance
> 
> the bounce needs to show price action that supports the resistance ratio
> (as a % of a previous price swing) and then have bars that say the ratio is valid, so, by itself, the ratio
> is merely a guideline..if the ratio fails that does not negate the larger trend but it does warn that a larger bounce requires me to look for other reasons than immediate trend construct and maybe caused by
> auction mechanics rather than trend construct (such as time of day or liquidity withdraws for news release)
> 
> View attachment 85108




LOL ... only thinking about you earlier today Joules (no stalking involved however!!)

I hold Gold stock (not futs) so am very interested in its current possy.

I have minimal idea of what you meant in your last couple of posts... but am curious of your thoughts on the last few years "trend' for Gold when it has had a healthy late December dip followed by an even more healthy January rise ...... Personally I am looking for a gold rally early in the new year so any dips into late December I will be treating as a buying opportunity ... thoughts?


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## Joules MM1

barney said:


> LOL ... only thinking about you earlier today Joules (no stalking involved however!!)
> 
> I hold Gold stock (not futs) so am very interested in its current possy.
> 
> I have minimal idea of what you meant in your last couple of posts... but am curious of your thoughts on the last few years "trend' for Gold when it has had a healthy late December dip followed by an even more healthy January rise ...... Personally I am looking for a gold rally early in the new year so any dips into late December I will be treating as a buying opportunity ... thoughts?




my trading take is switches in size of swings ......i've become adaptive to likely swing sizes but only use weekly trend moves as a oh-yeah-that-looks-right kinda thing ....frankly tho i am generally bearish and dont expect to take a longterm long until the weekly downtrend from 2011 is completed so in the meantime this kind of ranging cannot be called with any clarity, well, at least i can't call it 
however gold often provides good constructive swings and as long as youre not bound by any emotive logic and not trapped by any cognitive must-do's then it's a  good intstrument to run with and my suggestion is only use the USD as a glance-at and not a guideline (convo for another day)


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## Joules MM1

with this close-up i want you to get how to validate the swing, firstly that the ratio res is proving the trend and that the nearest counter ratios are easily taken out, in other words if smaller ratios in the opposite direction have no validity then they'll be brushed aside, this should give a sense of size and general trend health (construct)


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## Joules MM1

i can validate the play as i go .....much like melbourne storms, suddenly there suddenly not there gold
can hit recognition zones and it's important to place size to those zone in the trend strength...it's not a purely directional play yet that idea does afford better risk (at least specific levels)


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## Joules MM1

uh-oh momo soon ?


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## Joules MM1

barney said:


> LOL ... only thinking about you earlier today Joules (no stalking involved however!!)
> 
> I hold Gold stock (not futs) so am very interested in its current possy.
> 
> I have minimal idea of what you meant in your last couple of posts... but am curious of your thoughts on the last few years "trend' for Gold when it has had a healthy late December dip followed by an even more healthy January rise ...... Personally I am looking for a gold rally early in the new year so any dips into late December I will be treating as a buying opportunity ... thoughts?




@barney 

what's ratio

do you see people drive to work, park their car, work, get back in their cars and go home
that by its very definition is a set of ratios, a set of symmetries, a set of habits and repetitions

taking a slightly larger picture, if you think of all traders who are active all of the time and some traders only do business some of the time (due to size and levels) then it makes logic that ratios are always active pending those players and that being true we can look to see when some players are going to only trade some swings (some price lengths) therefor they have their own active ratios 

all ratios are active all the time

these lower redlines are inverted ratios (127.2%) and are cues only, to look out for reverse swings
it is normal for inverted ratios to reverse a trend as all trends have sizes too so without getting into the whole how-psychology-works schtick lets just accept that it does because it does and because it does there must be price lengths people will go to to express their sense of value for their own ideas of profit or loss limits and their own sense of profit or loss as a risk extent

in this chart we see an open gap which is likely to get closed on a reverse swing, what is most obvious  is the overlapping of price and the hooks to rope in knee-jerk longs and those longs are now being squeezed out and once max pain has hit they'll capitulate and price can ascend again
in the background the COT is showing widening of commercials into sells which is another downer for retail longs and probably some managers who thought theyre onto a silent winner as they had to follow the trend and they've done so without asking about the make-up of the trend (choppy non-impulsive) as they are only trend following absolute direction (or their concept of it)

i agree that we are not completely finished with the upside and think the 1290 level at least is due a revisit and think the swing of 1260 thru 1306 is likely the multiple ratio (so it could be a 1:1 or a 1:127.2 or a 1:161.8 .....my guess is a 1:1 or less is most likely if it re-establishes the monthly downtrend)


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## Joules MM1

as we've just hit an inverted ratio i've closed some of the shorts and scaled the others with a low-risk stop
(all stops are only low-risk due to being a pending order)


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## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> @barney
> 
> what's ratio
> 
> do you see people drive to work, park their car, work, get back in their cars and go home
> that by its very definition is a set of ratios, a set of symmetries, a set of habits and repetitions
> 
> all ratios are active all the time




Thanks for all the above detail Joules.  Will re read and digest.... I certainly appreciate your use of ratios and totally agree with the concept ... I guess most humans responses and tendencies to repeat certain actions etc is programmed in which is fortunate when trying to assess a trading chart.

I think Gold is short term bearish as well and earlier in the year called an eventual drop back to around 1070-1080 over a few month period before we really get a sustained Long trade ..... that still looks unlikely in the short term.

I did notice the last few years have had a pattern of trade however and IF we get a decent drop into the end of December (which looks possible) it will be interesting if one of your ratio patterns sets up for a long in January ... Will try and throw a chart later tonight to highlight what I'm babbling about ... cheers.


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## barney

PS.  Nice trade by the way


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## Joules MM1

two diff sizes with two diff profiles (risk levels)

follow-up post in a cupla hours probably


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## Joules MM1

while we're awaiting the outcome of this set, 

let's look at some unfortunate individuals who are really struggling with the endearments of life (and no this one isnt about bitcoin....its much worse)

watch both ....if you can


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## Joules MM1

and here's one we prepared earlier....

offloading -  unknown unknowns coming up later tonight


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## Joules MM1

the kink in the commercials v. managers makes me ask did that occur cos suddenly sells or sudden buys and i know youre thinking derr theyre matched and my response is derr either we get suddenly buy-side or sudden sell-side the question is is there an analogue to why here and why now?

the kink suggests managers did the rush to exit and commercials wanted more than just the available supply from that rush


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## Joules MM1

@barney 

how important is this rotation? off a previous same-size ratio with commercials kink in the COT longs

bid appears to have the strength......just


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## barney

Curious J ...... You have around 1285 pegged as a potential important level which is around the 6 month 50% zone ..... do you use the ratio from the recent swing high in late November to the mid December low as a potential clarification of that same area?  .... just wondering as it fits with the recurring 4:3 ratio which I see a lot.


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## Joules MM1

barney said:


> Curious J ...... You have around 1285 pegged as a potential important level which is around the 6 month 50% zone ..... do you use the ratio from the recent swing high in late November to the mid December low as a potential clarification of that same area?  .... just wondering as it fits with the recurring 4:3 ratio which I see a lot.




this is going to be clear as mud as i've done this so many times but trying to explain it in this type of medium is like an outback rally with a flat tyre ...have drawn on your chart thinking it might make a difference than me repeating with one of my own....see if it makes a difference

pros like halfway levels so that would add to a rotation level but the levels i first look for are relative structure moves, that means, if price moves back to a ratio as a measure of a previous swing in that direction, within the confines of one larger move and respects that level, thus returning to the larger swing (in this instance down), then that tells me a lot about risk/size and the type of price action to accompany the rotation ......the reason i prefer ratios for context is because theyre based on what people have done, it's in the print, so repetition is good thing whereas if that repetition suddenly does something different, that may tell me that a new game is already underway or about to be underway pronto ....and this is the major reason i place absolute Fib measures in low priority as Fibs are of themselves not provable, i mean, a level between two price points is of itself random (there are so many so how do you know the one youre looking at is correct, how do you know its reliable, if it has only two end points as its history and those two end points are themselves randomly chosen?)

2 things: even if that rotation occurs at that halfway it does not mean i am correct about the structure
secondly if the rotation is brushed aside then that action itself shifts the game back in favour (bids) and adds to the idea that a new game is underway and new players, with intent, have entered

we're still in the middle or midst of a large chop zone and we may need to retest/probe back the highs before the 2011 bear can resume...each step and each structure needs context within that larger bear context

its now a year since we  went and revisited 1110 zone and nothing in the price action confirms we are in a bull trend, certainly in a typical way that i can see....maybe seasonal bias might hold gold up fro a few months

to quick summarise in this localised play, we have a cupla abc games and none of them confir trend action, rather a game of localised players and mm's staring at each other not being the first to make price discovery, but, clearly in oct/nov we had a lot of drivers change position and this was reflected in the kink  pointed-to above in cot report and i am going to offer a counter-intuitive idea on this as we never know if the buying by commercials is a straight out long bet or an insurance bet for whatever yadda yadda and one way of telling that is by asking with the lifted volume and all transactions being balanced (someones buying all that elevated selling) then the price structure should reflect that by breaking the typical pattern that says if the price length does not break that 1285 level, as it is a typical weak lower high bounce, then, that action says the downtrend is probably back under way or at least we'll revisit last decembers low....conversely in the june thru sept period no one wanted to chase price up as printed in volume but retail was a keen chaser and now we've shaken out a lot of those retail with a 78.6% retrace of that june/sept swing so that makes this recent 78.6% retrace a significant level plus the move ended on a previous ratio swing of same size add to that the exchange in the recent series of hooks and we have come back into a zone that says we have attempted to print this zone as a floor (the vwap/vpoc crowd must be happy) so anecdotally i think we have good evidence of higher prices from fridays close but we must do two things: respect the 78.6% 1237 level and break thru 1285's ...as  muddy as that maybe it's crystal clear to me


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## Joules MM1

i should have added, by contradicting myself and to be clear

the major prob and major mistake players make with fibs is that theyre most oft drawn between two end points low to high high to low is irrelevant, what's relevant is that the drawer has no reason to think that any of the levels in between zero and 100 has any more weight than any other within those two points unless a rotation occurs coincidentally with another pattern (a pattern a series of human actions in print) that warns the trader that that rotation (and how it unfolds, ie impulsively or a rejection of a level  or an action that suggests someone is attempting to bring a move on)

but some instruments also have a history and/or propensity for price lengths and gold and many commodities refract/reflect/coincide/bounce/reject-from a small group such as 88.6%, 78.6. 52.36, 127.2 and 100% ...

again, how price reacts at these levels should alert a trader to risk ........all of these are only about risk versus prediction and even tho i often annotate "target" on my charts theyre a reference to ratios and theyrer based on recent same-size strutural moves that make sens within the confines of the recent same-size activity


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## Joules MM1

thin trade

focus today:


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## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> this is going to be clear as mud as i've done this so many times but trying to explain it in this type of medium is like an outback rally with a flat tyre ...




LOL ....... Your mud is actually quite clear joules ... I just hope others take the time to read it cause there are may pearls of wisdom amongst it

Have re-read and summarised the multitude of points you make just in case some future ASF potential Gold traders would like to look a bit deeper into the mind of Joules and want it in point form

Thanks for the detailed responses much appreciated 

*Joules above post summarised ...

pros like halfway levels*


_* i first look for are relative structure moves*_


_* if price moves back to a ratio as a measure of a previous swing in that direction, within the confines of one larger move and respects that level, then that tells me a lot*_


_*the reason i prefer ratios for context is because theyre based on what people have done*_


_*repetition is good ..... if that repetition suddenly does something different, that may tell me that a new game is already underway .... *_


_* i place absolute Fib measures in low priority as Fibs are of themselves not provable/ random *_


_*2 things: even if that rotation occurs at that halfway it does not mean i am correct about the structure*_


_*Secondly, if the rotation is brushed aside ... adds to the idea that a new game is underway and new players, with intent, have entered*_


_*we may need to retest/probe back the highs before the 2011 bear can resume...each step and each structure needs context *_


_*its now a year since we  went and revisited 1110 zone and nothing in the price action confirms we are in a bull trend*_


_*maybe seasonal bias might hold gold up for a few months*_


_*in this localised play we have a cupla abc games and none of them confirm trend action, rather a game of localised players and mm's staring at each other not being the first to make price discovery*_


_*clearly in oct/nov we had a lot of drivers change position and this was reflected in the kink  pointed-to above in cot report *_


_*we never know if the buying by commercials is a straight out long bet or an insurance bet for whatever *_


_*one way of telling that is ... lifted volume and all transactions being balanced (someones buying all that elevated selling)*_


_*price structure should reflect that by breaking the typical pattern *_


_*that says if the price length does not break that 1285 level, the downtrend is probably back under way *_


_*conversely the june/sept period ..no one wanted to chase price up but retail was a keen chaser*_


_*now we've shaken out a lot of those retail with a 78.6% retrace of that june/sept swing so that makes this recent 78.6% retrace a significant level*_


_*the move ended on a previous ratio swing of same size *_


_*we have come back into a zone that says we have attempted to print this zone as a floor (the vwap/vpoc crowd must be happy) *_


_*anecdotally i think we have good evidence of higher prices from fridays close but we must do two things: respect the 78.6% 1237 level and break thru 1285's ...*_


_*muddy as that maybe it's crystal clear to me*_

Clear as mud to me Joules


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## Joules MM1

cheers, barney

a diff perspective, vids posted by  @eNyce worth a looksee 
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/X...rish-Pullback-Trade-Using-Structure-Analysis/


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## Joules MM1

dirty pricing 
enough res to pull price back but clear intent to get pricing higher


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## Modest

Yeah I am hoping it blasts straight to 1273


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## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Yeah I am hoping it blasts straight to 1273




some academia in the front month cfd 
78.6% of one swing coincides with 100% of the swing i am looking for to rotate on

you can also see @eNyce wedge formation from his video


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## Joules MM1

suez canal


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## Joules MM1

sell to open 72's .....not a convincing rotation, risk is low


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## Joules MM1

cost of education 
to find out if the rotation level had substance if not then the odds fell in favour of next target
the level i thought may see a rejection is not even visible on a 30 min view
message in a throttle (see chart above, see insert below)


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## Joules MM1

boxing day here and chrissy day in the US and bidders are keen and price is becoming constructive

1282's appear on tap today already .....are we expecting a pullback in equity bid-side liquidity going into january ?

still thin trade with a few chasers....price is going and so do i !


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## Joules MM1

quick review on silver to see if there are associative measures, similar context, relative size and simple logic that says the view on gold is supported

as i recall in gold when it formed a triangle at the weekly swing low in may thru july 2012, what looked like a move that would end in a thrust south, headed north during which we had the two great central bankers designate no effort would be left to secure currencies and equity markets, several weeks later all the retail fervour saw a top that just wouldnt look back, big declines came,  as is fair to say, if one part of the method is not observed correctly and adjusted-to correctly then .....ya know....if i look the opposite way (using gold as a proxy  to avoid outright bias) can i say  i am observing price action correctly and placing anecdotal evidence into correct context?


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## Kryzz

Joules MM1 said:


> boxing day here and chrissy day in the US and bidders are keen and price is becoming constructive
> 
> 1282's appear on tap today already .....are we expecting a pullback in equity bid-side liquidity going into january ?
> 
> still thin trade with a few chasers....price is going and so do i !
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 85340




Any chance you see this spiking through 1,300 at all?


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## Joules MM1

Kryzz said:


> Any chance you see this spiking through 1,300 at all?
> 
> View attachment 85356




youre asking me to predict which i cannot do ....accurately 
suffice to say if we break the 1282's level (front month cfd) then the next multiple target is  1318


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## Joules MM1

ah, those pesky US/Aus timelines ......82's target on tap?


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## Joules MM1

the level (see insert) got treated like bish .....very little sell volume around and pulls are shallow...appears we have a ways to go before the uh-oh gang arrive and have to have at it

when price moves thru a ratio as it has now it tells a whole new story in a  larger context and typically in prior moves like this we get a target well above and the highest ratio go to in this phase is 1335's above which i am utterly clueless 
6 major levels above 1282's offer swings so i'll be looking at them as we go with a cupla fakes thrown in just for laughs, surely!

1294's please


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## Joules MM1

tomorrows trendy going to buuuuy.....


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## Modest

Nice trading mate 

1,294.50 (Cash CFD) is my next target I have eyeballed


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## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Nice trading mate
> 
> 1,294.50 (Cash CFD) is my next target I have eyeballed



 yep, me too ("overlooked level"  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/gold-day-trading.13677/page-3#post-968652) great minds drink alike


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## Joules MM1

@Modest (artist formerly known as et tu $PEPE) ...looks like a headbutt 94's + top of the channel ?
some momo by fomo's


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## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> @Modest (artist formerly known as et tu $PEPE) ...looks like a headbutt 94's + top of the channel ?
> some momo by fomo's
> View attachment 85385




As an amateur and hopefully potential futs guy of the future ..... i'm curious ..

Given the 1294ish level is looking a goer, do we now drop down to a lower time frame (1 min or 5 min) and micro trade the last couple of points ... just in case it does one of those undesirable "Rank Reversals" and we end up losing a sleeve off the shirt we just got for a bargain price at Lowes


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## Joules MM1

barney said:


> As an amateur and hopefully potential futs guy of the future ..... i'm curious ..
> 
> Given the 1294ish level is looking a goer, do we now drop down to a lower time frame (1 min or 5 min) and micro trade the last couple of points ... just in case it does one of those undesirable "Rank Reversals" and we end up losing a sleeve off the shirt we just got for a bargain price at Lowes




see "Conversations" started one in there


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## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> @Modest (artist formerly known as et tu $PEPE) ...looks like a headbutt 94's + top of the channel ?
> some momo by fomo's




 Yeh looking for a final thrust up into 94s to unload the rest of my position into. Once flat I won't have anything better to do than to look to get short I guess


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## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Yeh looking for a final thrust up into 94s to unload the rest of my position into. Once flat I won't have anything better to do than to look to get short I guess




consider a scale ......still very trend constructive


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## Modest

Yeah I'll definitely buy it again for much higher prices - there's enough momo on the HTF's for it continue rallying. But for the time being, I am liking the look of entering a short around the 94's for a pullback


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## Modest

higher prices in my view = 1,322ish


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## Joules MM1

1321 front month cfd has a standard rotation ratio


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## Joules MM1

looks like that's about to get slapped thru too ......so little to do


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## Joules MM1

closed out last left of scaled at 20's ....we got a solid rejection and have STO at 20's s. 22's
if it begins to range in this zone i'll look to take a BTO on a break of 22's but otherwise observing the signal in the rotation


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## Joules MM1

how does it look?
where's from?
how would it influence current level?
break that down into the price action that gives the signals you need
profile the risk


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## Joules MM1

if the level falls apart as a rotation, does it offer an idea of strength to the large upswing, as the swing has been so constructive, defining risk for a STO  and a probable confirmation of  more upside on a retake of the close-out level

gold is prone to reversing on 'no apparent reason' .......there's a always a reason, sellers overwhelm convinced buyers, exhaustion of bids, nothing special...the ratios provide levels of permission and risk


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## Joules MM1

the breakout looks weak and has already come back inside the 'floor' range makes me think we either have not stamped this zone as the zone to bid or we have seen an exhaustion move 
breaking 1310's would be a good sign the swing south is underway 1325's break bit tick for bids (front month con)


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## kid hustlr

J do you ever look at Gold stocks as a lead indicator for the POG?


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## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> J do you ever look at Gold stocks as a lead indicator for the POG?





i used to try and get a sense of a group of players and sometimes use xgd as a guidance on "belief" buy the bidders....but really theyre all slaves to the same thing so i found my focus got foggy doing all that running around....just cannot tell if lagging or leading a sentiment can look right but be a big fake as one group uses directional strength to get out/in .....knee jerk gang both directions...never found a useable edge


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> the breakout looks weak and has already come back inside the 'floor' range makes me think we either have not stamped this zone as the zone to bid or we have seen an exhaustion move
> breaking 1310's would be a good sign the swing south is underway 1325's break bit tick for bids (front month con)
> View attachment 85497




a little more in focus on how price unfolds moving back to 1310's
a simple abc (the B a fake-out H/H) would suit more upside in the bigger pic


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## Triple B

Gday Joules
I have been following AU for a couple months[Demo as practice for real deal very soon]
Do you ever  day trade [night Trade] the Non Farm Payroll, Fed minutes etc anouncements?
Some crazy $10 + swings in minutes . I practiced last Friday night[ [about 12:30amSat] Fading the Up Bar at the top . Going short and Riding down the correction. Not for the feint hearted but could be some quick opportunities there.


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## Joules MM1

G'day TB

another way of coursing/viewing thru the upwswing

symmetry and relative sizing offers risk profile and adds confirmation signals to context


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## Joules MM1

let's try that again !


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## Joules MM1

the breakdown of the above construct gave permission to take the sell and look for the larger abc (see #65) before we can stick on our hiking boots and head north again ......smells like teen distribution, Asia not on the bid today


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## Joules MM1

who's a nasty girl
jacking weak longs and grabbing a bargain for a zone to attempt another  launch


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## Joules MM1

consolidation time spent maybe (offers) some clues


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## Joules MM1

chopped my knees a few times ......but i get em in the end (etc etc)

1311 never eventuated bodes well for a swing thru


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## Triple B

Hope you are busy on the Au Joules


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## Joules MM1

Triple B said:


> Hope you are busy on the Au Joules




yes

and regular visitor to your new diary/blog ....maybe a vlog coming soon too ?

(1) $DX is heavy long (2) gold is mediocre long (mate, where's me mania, oh, you went cr@ptocoil) and (3) xjo is 74% longs on a downswing ......while it may be true that not all cfd sentiment pos are of a great value due to the lack of data to support size, the data that is there suggests sentiment is usually high in the wrong direction ......gold is currently in a very robust channel and broke thru two of my major ratio level in a convincing GTFO of my way style


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## Triple B

Joules MM1 said:


> maybe a vlog coming soon too




No  Vlogs. not much point in a newb vlogging  his stumbling through a demo acc I reckon. 
Have been looking into ratios a little , and can see some use in helping determine CO potential selling/ take profit areas. 
Did you squeeze anything out of the CPI Announc on Sat Morn?
I tried but got in a bit early , then stopped out . Might need to give a bit of time on next scheduled announc to let it settle then take pos.
Might see some hard selling into and around $1350 mainly cause its a nice round no and has previous R.
But reckon bulls will regain control. 
Would like to see your 88s target hit though .


----------



## Triple B

Just for interest if it remains in the narrow bull channel we can see 88s By the end of the month.
If it gets overbought [above top trend line[overbought line]even sooner. so many ways to app roach this game.


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## Joules MM1

Triple B said:


> No  Vlogs. not much point in a newb vlogging  his stumbling through a demo acc I reckon.
> Have been looking into ratios a little , and can see some use in helping determine CO potential selling/ take profit areas.
> Did you squeeze anything out of the CPI Announc on Sat Morn?
> I tried but got in a bit early , then stopped out . Might need to give a bit of time on next scheduled announc to let it settle then take pos.
> Might see some hard selling into and around $1350 mainly cause its a nice round no and has previous R.
> But reckon bulls will regain control.
> Would like to see your 88s target hit though .




there was no triple play like there usually is so initially i got trapped after bidding close to the low i sold what i thought would be the stamped high for a larger swing south....that bummed out .... it gave a warning and the way the ratios were pushed aside added to the bull break so i guess we got some legs in this run which make the 88's look attractive and we'll get a lot of sub channels within this larger one...the pricing has been the best of all the legs in terms of days that close at the high and less down sessions so we could say the trend is accelerating esp while the $dx is in free fall with every muppet trying to buy the $DX bargain


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## Joules MM1

print keeps proving the few bulls are correct, retail kinda uncommitted both sides of the gig


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## Joules MM1

FT71: "what is the auction trying to achieve?"

do or die time ?
no rotation for $DX to get pumped about?
next COT report should offer insight


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## Joules MM1

and then


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## Joules MM1

when the lifts look like hardwork is price bid up or marked up....price can still become impulsive in the lift but this is all liquidity fingers ...so far


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## Joules MM1

xauusd
looking for price to cover fridays release









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## Joules MM1

fridays lift is not clean, we would expect to see a follow-thru today if the news fitted the trend impulsively
typically when honkers opens we get a bull kick after a + news release for xauusd
we know the larger channel had a decent confirmation signal so that's the real low in terms of technical  strength
again, it's not the influx of selling that kills the uptrend (relative size of that phase) its the withdrawal or contraction of bids
relative to the continuous size of selling, trends within trends, liquidity gangs gotta make their $ too, so right now, let's say
because we cannot know for sure, let's say the group(s) at play right now are not determing trend, theyre just swimming within
and covering the news release has had a very high hit rate for large cap commods
#lunchmoneytrade



#


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## Joules MM1

iii of iii








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summarizing as price unfurls
asking; what does the immediate landscape suggest


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## Joules MM1

my lunchmoney trade turned into a brunch trade
so far tonights churn up is just ugly but up is up n not down
value of channels








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## Joules MM1

if youre a H&S fan then 1855 x 1909 =
target for this inverted H&S is 1962 fracca above the last largest swing high (nov 20 to jan 21)
failure is below the shoulder line








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not a DT idea, simply more technical landscape


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## bsnews

sorry I am lost on the above. Could you spell it out a little more for the layman please?
Cheers


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## peter2

Joules has shown an inverse head & shoulder pattern that leans to the right. The target from the H&S pattern is 1962. 

The pattern will fail if price goes below the right shoulder. 

This is not a day trade (DT) setup but it is based on a chart pattern.


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## Joules MM1

added to (sensei) @peter2  post:
if the sloping shoulders were sloped upward not downward, preceded by a clean impulsive trend swing,
that print would add to the confidence of a break out above the neckline to reach the 2 x target

in this instance, i say, confidence is lower as we have the downward sloping neckline and we have had a less than clean trip upwards

so we should consider this when looking at both positional risk and account risk and this may add to the larger landscape

(as i type i have  a STO position) ....even tho H&S have less than stellar outcomes, it is fair to say that win/loss rate is based in toto
on all styles of H&S and not delineated to "styles" of each construct (slanted left, slanted right, horizontal, inverted, obverse, upwards or downards direction and specially if "nestled H&S" what that context is, in other words, the H&S we are observing is a contextual as it is smaller in relative size the larger - shall we say daily - as it is small within a tight upchannel)


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## Joules MM1

rejection at the  neckline









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## Joules MM1

bulls signal or continuation signal, the channel is clearly defined, reducing the odds of lower lows
what's it not doing, it's not selling, the H&S still remains in favour of  bulls









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## Joules MM1

xauusd selling very smoothly, several bull markers fallen,
out of the channel likely in the next few hours








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## Joules MM1

#observation
we now have several anchors for the bulls to own this channel, technically it proves the bull case

breaking out of this channel after the news annoc would suggest player used the release to sell into strength
inversely, testing the channel floor (as it just did) create ideal trend within the confines of the channel
to that extent the channel defines risk for both sides (STO and BTO)








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forward testing is always better tutor than backwards testing


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## bsnews

This is where I struggle with my trades I could of cashed in at 30% profit but held the shares, with today's bounce I am at 25% again.
Today thought I am going to apply a trailing stop on this trade as it removes the onus from me somewhat.
I will see how this goes for me as I like to let my trades run but I seem to allow them to lose a fair amount of profit at times.
Just thought I would add the trailing stop is at 2% not a lot of room but a bit,


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## peter2

Every trader suffers from this problem until they make plans and then apply those plans to minimise the emotional impact. It's very hard to stick to a trading plan until you understand yourself. The plans you make should suit your personality and risk tolerance.

I'm a short term trader. If my initial risk is 10% then I'm happy to grab 15-25% in a short time. I'll use a profit target or a trailing stop that tightens as the profit gets larger. I'm not going to get most of the move but I'll get lots of little bits as the swing or trend unfolds.

You manage every trade according to your trading plans. Your plan for every market, eg XAUUSD, must allow for the average price movement (volatility) in the time frame you're trading. If you use a trailing stop on a daily chart then you've got to allow price to move the average daily amount.  Gold can move a lot in a session and this makes it difficult to use a trailing stop on an intraday chart.


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## Gunnerguy

peter2 said:


> Every trader suffers from this problem until they make plans and then apply those plans to minimise the emotional impact. It's very hard to stick to a trading plan until you understand yourself. The plans you make should suit your personality and risk tolerance.
> 
> I'm a short term trader. If my initial risk is 10% then I'm happy to grab 15-25% in a short time. I'll use a profit target or a trailing stop that tightens as the profit gets larger. I'm not going to get most of the move but I'll get lots of little bits as the swing or trend unfolds.
> 
> You manage every trade according to your trading plans. Your plan for every market, eg XAUUSD, must allow for the average price movement (volatility) in the time frame you're trading. If you use a trailing stop on a daily chart then you've got to allow price to move the average daily amount.  Gold can move a lot in a session and this makes it difficult to use a trailing stop on an intraday chart.



Peter
Great reply, understand yourself, emotions and RISK TOLERANCE.
When I started trading/investing years ago, I was told a good analogy.

Like a fisherman, you don’t want the tail and you don’t want the head. You want the body meat. Imagine a fish standing on its tail with its head pointing to the sky.  As a trader you’ll never (or very rarely) pick the bottom or the top of the trend. You need to identify the base/turn, let it rise (the tail) then buy in. Let it rise until you have some of the meat, enough to feed yourself, then sell out. If you miss the top that’s fine. You live to trade another time.
Different for everyone, but a gain of 10% in 1,2,3 weeks I would be very happy with. Yes there are trading costs in and out, but I trade in large amounts where the trading costs are insignificant.
Just my 2 cents worth.
Gunnerguy


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## bsnews

Although I posted here I am not day trading but I like Gold ATM.
I generally trade in lots of 10,000 shares no real reason but it also makes the trading cost irreverent. So 10% is good. But selling has proven a challenge of late. 
Up until late I have been firm but of late I have broken my rules to my own detriment.


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## Gunnerguy

Th


bsnews said:


> Although I posted here I am not day trading but I like Gold ATM.
> I generally trade in lots of 10,000 shares no real reason but it also makes the trading cost irreverent. So 10% is good. But selling has proven a challenge of late.
> Up until late I have been firm but of late I have broken my rules to my own detriment.



The fish analogy was for ALL lengths of trade, day, month, cycle, long term.
Gunnerguy


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## Joules MM1

triggered a STO priced crossed 1884 xauusd
failing to just take take the previous swing high 1904's yesterday
unusual for price to hug the floor of the up channel, currently very smooth transition,
breaking the channel likely attract offers, we can already see a breakdown channel forming








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## Joules MM1

sell held over the weekend still playing out
xauusd is clearly now out of the channel and (arguably) forming a new down channel
we cannot read much into this until price print further suffice to say the greater risk to longs








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interestingly macd crossed, the last  time it so clearly crossed a lot of points were sliced off the menu,
while price had only previously traversed half the distance to the upside, this suggests 50% would not be
out of sync on a trend basis

for students take a gander at Elliott work done by a top practitioner, whom, unfortunately, passed away
https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/8 Tony Caldaro's weekly notation stands as classic work
while not considered orthodox the validity is clear and still baring fruit especially his (indexes) work on SPX et al


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## Joules MM1

short term the lack of impulsive selling looks good for long term bulls
short term trade the downchannel has some structure
price made several attempts to get above the standard-fare 38.2% res (low to high) but price 
still sits below that ratio and below the centreline of the downchannel, 
price keeps the appearance of further roll over today, from a bullish 
perspective there are better value levels to come for entry









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above 1897 bulls light like a candle


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## Joules MM1

thus far in the larger picture
we have simple ABC printed
impulsive selling in the first leg down - A
failed attempt (by a point) to retake the high - B
and the current downswing - C
i have drawn the altered and what shoud stand for a few more days, as the orthodox channel, for an impulsive trend
remaining open to the idea there is a lot more to develop whereas we are merely correcting, 
currently, the prior upleg, staying with shorts for mine








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## Joules MM1

while the current downchannel develops, we should note the typical down-up-down 
sequence most common has already exceeded typical abc ratios (1:1 and 1:1.618)
this lends itself to more anecdotal evidence of not closing sells until a rejection signal comes
especially while each hour the trend/price action is so smooth
uber bulls can be satisfied to get better value, 
when does a short term trade become a long term position?
we are about to find out as we approach the half way level (march 9th 1677 > 1916)
i have labeled accordingly, again, the channel is not yet developed enough to know the boundaries








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## Joules MM1

with trend on, looking for simple low volatility bounces of equal measure:
edited https://www.tradingview.com/x/aOSBZ9s1/


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## Joules MM1

quiet bid in the overnight (US), no impulsive urgency in Asian trade
so far a simple abc counter-trend printing
moving beyond the standard retrace/bounce measures would make me look at the larger picture and adjust
keep in mind we just pinged off the 61.8% level, at best it is arbitrary, point to point, no discernable context,
 we're talking a commodity not an index,
to that, i say, beware that all the major players have more information and data, theyre more adept at knowing when
the 61.8 crowd gathers









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## Joules MM1

1800 xauusd appears to be a nice round target, middle of the minor downchannel
news tonight, if news fits the trend we'll get an insight from that news, the interpretation of it at least,
how significant the current move is, is it a pullback in a healthy bull trend or have seen a substantial rotation ?








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## Joules MM1

the 618 crowd bought their lot and got sold into, the news reaction was inline with the current downswing, 
 i suspected we'd at least test 1800 as the round number stops of STO's would sit there, that type of action is typcial of trapping, 
lack of trapping is also a sign of players not wanting to get caught with longs they cannot distribute themselves, meaning, 
if the trend is so clear to market markers and liquidity gangs then they do not want to lose their edge by being 
stranded with longs that cannot reach the usual 
round numbers, well, just a thought, i could be completely off base, but, for mine, 
that risk idea fits the current structure, imho


on news no aggressive bids came, again, suggesting lowering risk is firmly with trading along current price direction, 
players who fade for rebates dont want the trend to fade them as loss of points outweighs the rebate gained
there was an hour where churn created a volume point of control 1781>1772, bids lost that battle, 
price went on its way lower, 
next step is the roof of march11>march27, the base of that roof we can call 1722, 
at which point we'll be stretched, as we'll be  in  the 78.6%>88.6% window, below which fresh air blows thru,
 i suspect we'll see a rally in that zone 1739>1722,
 thus far the channel is proving up well
we have confimative points now, trendy price action adds to the outlook









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## Joules MM1

pared back STO xauusd pop at the open, looking for a clean and tested break of the channel,









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#divergence, #rushingtoconclusionbythebuyers


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## Joules MM1

all the right signals at the open, but, where are the buyers, overnight sesh in the US but still no momo









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#lamebid


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## Joules MM1

right about now a lot emails will be sent showing this idea








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..for mine we still have to kill the dowchannel for that idea to have substance and it's a  hail-mary techncially
the longer it takes to validate the idea the wider the risk becomes

#wheredoyousetthefaillevelforH&S?


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## Joules MM1

yesterday was particularly busy in the auction, am out of sells and small long for this, at least until we reach the other side of this
current downchannel
we could interpret that a good rotation is only possible when price is supported in a small zone like this, such as, over the last few sessions
and supply is being gulped, with no clear picture that supports either sell or buy case
so, levels being levels we have near risk for bids, 1766 for mine xauusd
breaking out of the channel on an impulsive bid is likely to attract late comers but we need to see price ascend on a clean set of moves
currently we are 1782 








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## Joules MM1

only one way to describe the current price action : pathetic, def favours the bear perspective on a short term basis
price has begun to act typical of a flag, a continuation signal
on a time basis alone we are taking way longer than seen in several months to rotate north
again, levels being levels, while bulls sit on the luxury of previous vpoc levels looking like creating a floor
that lack of impulsive bid  and flag print suggests "we are at an inflection point" (a saying i cringe at usually)

the best scenario with this churn is that we are still playing out the most recent pullback (1961-1761) and need to make
one final slightly lower low before supply runs out and buyers have to chase the bid
that would then require price to do two things, break out of the channel on impulse and make above/thru (and get tested)
1796

if the bear flag plays out 1796 wont be touched, we'll have impulsive selling, a news trigger would pull bids and add open sells

aside from the counter-intuitive 2 to 5 point swings slower than wetgrassfistfight there's not a lot to do from a positional point of view

i favour the downside here especially given that we have no fear reflected in the cfd positions of both retail and "top" traders at 80%BTO

we reached the bottom of a large channel, arguably a standard-fare bullflag in a bull trend, but, what do we see at that bottom(?)
nothing but bull sentiment and when we bounce off that low then retrace that bounce, what do we have(?), nothing but raging bull sentiment

yeah, no need to rush, let's see who the fat kid is on the other end of this seesaw !!


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## Joules MM1

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a thrust to the march 20 area (vpoc),  a final thrust before the supply runs out ?
below that the probabilities of continuation in the current direction increase
price still needs to decisively break the channel on an impulsive bid
sells remain intact for mine, triangle/coiling create a lot of yes/no swings as one group overhwhelms the other
the boundary is an attempt to box price, once that boundary is broken it is a good idea to not be tied the most immediate ideas


#risk


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## Joules MM1

we may get a decision tonight: what is the auction trying to achieve ?








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## Joules MM1

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train is leaving sellersville onto shouldasold


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## Joules MM1

"top" traders (cfd) are running at 88% long as the rip south hits
total retail is 82% long


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## Joules MM1

the dash down has arguably completed this sell down, technically for mine, for two reasons
a completed thrust from a triangle typical of this move (triangles precede a final move prior to a rotation)
that the triangle made a 127.2% inverted measure, 127's are also terminal moves, in context

so now we have clearly close-at hand risk levels for both sells and buys
this helps with both positional and account risk
the huge bias of 86% cfd liquidity to the buyside does not fit a picture of fear, this makes me shift my overall 
technical bias to sell until that channel is cleanly broken and we have an impulsive bid
nearterm we can go back up to correct the most recent trip down, but unless that ego grab of buyers begins to thin out i am inclined
to think we could be in for an uber dump .....but, again, levels being levels and those being close at hand

the immediate hourly price action says we are done selling


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## Joules MM1

um, that didnt last long

this is worth considering:








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## Cam019

Just some short term perspective here. Chart is always moving as price unfolds but currently looking for the smart money to grab liquidity from areas of inefficiency built from the prior leg down.


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## Cam019

Just as an exercise, what does this pink zone look like to retail traders? Triple top possibilty? Chances are we will see some kind of wicking into this level to get retail traders preparing to get involved on the short side, maybe a 'bearish engulfing' candle as well and then a blast through to the upside triggering stop losses, aka liquidity. We still have inefficiencies above the pink zone that need filling. May or may not happen - interesting none the less.


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## Cam019

Just a follow up from post #119. Just as we anticipated, albiet a little higher. Did not breach the order block.


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## Joules MM1

price accomplised two standard moves 
into the high of the previous tri and a basic 27.2% retrace of the whole swing down

and then ran out of fuel post nfp

rip sell away, rip sell awaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy


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## Joules MM1

1814/1815 standard nearterm target range for this cycle, 1753 risk for larger swing positions


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## Joules MM1

price took a while to lift to standard round number resistance 1800 xauusd, 
looks quiet yet the auction has been very busy
we're about to find out how genuine are the sellers, thru 1800 finds 1814/15 next basic hurdle









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## Joules MM1

1815.4 rotation, near term risk for sells

giddydown horsie  https://www.tradingview.com/x/YcqlJGEW/


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## Joules MM1

those of in the cheap seats in the .382 stadium had a decent goal, but, it's a pullback in an upleg if the misely
14 points is a guide

bigger picture https://www.tradingview.com/x/OJUNaNYn/

today https://www.tradingview.com/x/l1WZEyhG/


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## Joules MM1

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buy signal, using the channel as a get-out


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## Sean K

Joules MM1 said:


> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> buy signal, using the channel as a get-out




What's tradingview Joules? Looks like another stock chat site but harder to navigate about. Couldn't find you on there.


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## Joules MM1

kennas said:


> What's tradingview Joules? Looks like another stock chat site but harder to navigate about. Couldn't find you on there.



only in it for the charts @kennas (they don't serve beer!)

top site, the charts are free to anyone, be warey of Aus open/close SPA not sure theyre alywas captured on tradingview if using for local stocks

i tend to steer clear of the chat stuff, i do enough rocket science (cough)


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## Joules MM1

78.6% of yesterdays swingdown retraced








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the auction is struggling to get upside traction
still held within the channel, jobless claims should kick in direction


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## Joules MM1

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signals within the struggle to make price discovery for longs


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## Joules MM1

price still held well underneath the 382 level, plenty of nearterm distribution, no clear signal about trend either way
still leans on sellside








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## Joules MM1

abc


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## Joules MM1

when youre almost scaled out and the crowd goes....it's time to get long
stop 1797


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## Joules MM1

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sound of happy feet from bulls


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## Joules MM1

did the bulls forget their collective keys ?
very busy auction, another buying opportunity broken down








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that channel looks like a hinge


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## Joules MM1

neither team is winning in terms of absolute trend,  a small signal of who has best intent is in the coiling as a signal for dt's


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## Joules MM1

price struggled to ascend the 38.2% retrace currently rotated back south from the halfway level
we should see an attempt to bid up price 1790 (depending on your contract) which is also halfway down, that would put price on top of the most recent vpoc activity
below that we are likely to see a couple of crucial days for xauusd
sellside liquidity currently has the better risk


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## Joules MM1

much fakery afoot


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> much fakery afoot











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## Joules MM1

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with the bid


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## Joules MM1

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buyers working hard to get this uphill


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> See more on tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> buyers working hard to get this uphill





1795 needs to hold (front month contract)


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 127620
> 
> 1795 needs to hold (front month contract)



still with above pov today
taking a review : https://www.tradingview.com/x/xNjDMXVg/


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> still with above pov today
> taking a review : https://www.tradingview.com/x/xNjDMXVg/



above the halfway level, traders are likely to get aggressive, below the zone, below 1771 (front month)
 sellers likely to get aggressive

review ii



#opinion #pov


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## Joules MM1

always, but, always, annotate your charts

when price is clustered in a tight zone, no price discovery (break-out to trend) size can be moderated to suit
a balance between account risk and positional risk (or applied risk)

from a risk pov:
youre most likely to lose more with a 10 on a trend swing than a 20 in  a cluster, price is far more likely to come back to your
entry level in a cluster rather than  impulsing away, achieve less points on higher lot with less or equal risk
it may be dumb for some players to raise risk in a tight zone, it may seem dumb, sure,
scaling in a tight zone changes risk profile versus holding for a trend swing, when price breaks away from a vpoc zone
a 10 can be losing significantly more than a 20 scaled in a  tight zone, not just in term of $ and time but in terms of the affect on you
so if you chase a top and a bottom just using a 10 you can destroy your account in a very quick time, bid a top, offer the bottom
your emotive decision making that makes your buy a top and sell a bottom is adrift from a practiced applied trade in a zone

and youre gone especially on margin, zonal trades scaled in, scaled out, you can inspect your win/loss while lowering applied risk,
..when sitting waiting for a trend to get underway there is nothing to inspect, you have to wait for price to give you permission to take action youre far more likely to look for reasons external to price to feel better about the position youre (stuck) in

especially with PM's where the 'value' is so ....flexible

applied risk outweighs trend ideas in probabilities for one simple reason: trend trades or trend swings maybe less than 20%
for any given instrument in terms of time, youre not trading the time but you can get caught by a time frame, the time frame is
obsequious because it is an unconscious shift of proficient trade practice to making allowance for being in a position your unconscious tells you is probably wrong, if you think about all the players who bet on higher highs in early 2011 when every print and guru on the planet was extolling the virtues of gold, for landlords charging rent in gold bars and gold ATM's and how many central banks were filling their vaults that background would have served well to destroy several years of holding a diminishing position until price finally came back to the entry level, that's a lot time given away

trend is merely the string between the zones that make the context,  critical , if youre waiting for
the string length to give you context youre enslaved to the time required to have that context print, which is fine when there is an additional remuneration along the way
keep in mind there is a huge difference between buying and bidding, between offering and selling
there is only a "huge amount of buying" when the print hits, once that buying is done the auction finds a different value level
yet we can still define where the largest buyers printed and where the least amount of sellers thought they were getting value sells

in zones the number of systems in use rises, more players interact, more systems will be successful simply because theyre engaging
in an auction that is trying to find the boundaries of value before there is a largesse agreement and we move onto the next zone, so
those systems can make their edge within the framework of the zone, maybe by coincidence than strategic understanding

this difference between understanding bids versus buys and offers versus sells is vital, it is how we can understand when a thin area
is - counterintutively - a rejection area of the current move, or, it becomes the air pocket (applicable to both directions of strength),
where price gaps, there is no gap there in terms of a printed bar but in terms of the rejection level, there's no one there to participate
so at the point in time there is a pivot in value, the players that participated previously are gone, value must move on

the gang that drove price up in a tight zone are not likely to be the size that takes price back down

if every trade is about a winning run then every trade becomes a higher risk in both $ risk and time risk and your disposition

the heading always your annotate charts is what made me start this jaunt, this opener maybe
fragmented to read, a lot like a jazz player who goes into a lead break, you have no idea where she/he's going but you know he'll come out in the right key, the point is, there is no point in putting up a chart unless you *annotate it with your thoughts*, a blank price chart only leaves the other viewers confused, or, worse, they think you see what they see, which us usually not the (concise) case and you have no way of referring to that little nugget of insight or no way of referring to that "jeez, wtf was i thinking there?" after you have an ah-ha moment
..ah-ha moments are not entirely systems-driven, sure, but unless youre mechanical you need those moments of insight that are about context and relative size. algo's dont have context.

the more you annotate your charts the more you see about yourself, when you review those charts, your moving picture diary....
it's not about knowing when youre wrong it is about knowing if youre widening your risk against yourself or narrowing the same risk
......the risk never changes it is merely dynamic to your understanding within the next time frame, annotating your charts allows you
to be present to that dynamism, this, i say, is relevant to anyone laying a bet in an auction regardless of the instrument and the time frame

---------------------------------------------
an unfinished jaunt
---------------------------------------------

please, join in, have a say......


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




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this is a better view of the same set-up


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> See more on tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> this is a better view of the same set-up



inline with structure, real time


----------



## Joules MM1

annotating


----------



## Joules MM1

went a little further, took heat on the extra STO, BTO were insurance, lowering risk, auction not finding support upwards,
original 30 pared to 25, still looking for price descension, a tweedle dee day


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## Joules MM1

iv


----------



## Joules MM1

some of the annotating on the charts  allows a recall, not all the trades are annotated, there is not enough time, review and update later while fresh

the risk is being pared as much as possible to allow the anchor to "trim" off the risk as price moves away, nailing down which time frame to pursue in this instance is vital, there's no DOM to work from, the auction appears sloppy but it's structure gives a positive expectation, even so, it is dumb not to
take the receding swings and be most attentive to them given they are against the value search the auction is going thru, it is far more  likey that an impulsive rejection of the buyers in the current structure with a series of hooks from MM's and chancers with the bid

 if the set-ups are good they are worth reviewing several times
and reviewed in context themselves, refers to structure and intent within the auction, currently the auction is printing a B down,
deceptive builds, two important roles come from annotating, seeing the self in hindsight, so i can transfer that into foresight by
reviewing that which works well regularly and seeing which repetition of habit that raises risk and make a plan how to lower that risk
the more reviewing about those habits the more those habits get exposed as i am about to execute the bad ones, the good ones i review much more to get them in my head as tho the trade is live again,


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1
Go Figure
againsthegrain
divs4ever
 ... and 1 more.       (someone with a cloaking device)                                                                
 

*Total: 18 (members: 5, guests: 13) * 
guests x 13 (excluding you bots !) please consider joining ASF if you cannot see the charts, it's free


----------



## divs4ever

i only use the cloaking device when praising government  , i don't want to embarrass my friends

 PS i was joking  .. just in case you didn't guess


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




i think this is important to figuring if youre about to buy a bargain (as price slumps) or if your buying a discount that just keeps discounting

day trading may seem innocuous and superfluous to investors yet we are in the same boat, youre looking for the undiscovered country while i'm looking for the leaks in the hull, 

 at least by inspecting those leaks once in while you can figure if youre going to make it to shore...
...and i absolutely promise that was the last lame analogy from me (i've got boatloads .....ha, a pun too !!)

coffee


----------



## wayneL

Joules MM1 said:


> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> See more on tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i think this is important to figuring if youre about to buy a bargain (as price slumps) or if your buying a discount that just keeps discounting
> 
> day trading may seem innocuous and superfluous to investors yet we are in the same boat, youre looking for the undiscovered country while i'm looking for the leaks in the hull,
> 
> at least by inspecting those leaks once in while you can figure if youre going to make it to shore...
> ...and i absolutely promise that was the last lame analogy from me (i've got boatloads .....ha, a pun too !!)
> 
> coffee



I'm too old and slow to catch gold moves intraday... either that or I'm distracted, reading crap on twitter.

So I'm just accumulating.


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## divs4ever

well i can't blame Twitter  ,  but would rather gold stocks   and hold them for months or longer  , some of them take a while but can more than double in price  ,  divs ( from some of them ) , plus all the excitement of a rigged commodity .. more fun than TV


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## Joules MM1

the F word


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## Joules MM1

what makes a rejection area, rejection of price direction, rejection of sellers by buyers
liquidity has two directions
if i were looking for an investment entry based on this what level would suit best to enter
what level offers best insight about intent?
when price hits the vpoc buyers enter yet price has failed to make new headway, does this tighten or widen the risk
what constitutes "consolidation" as it is not a thing specifically merely a summation after price moves away from
that area of doing business

the more price consolidates the higher the risk to buyers (in this instance), one failed rejection of sellers and prior buyers
have no influence, they are filled, with no new liquidity on the buy side, by slightly more selling than buying, price finds a new
area

that is what creates a gap n go (either direction) the gap does not appear on the chart if merely a handful of players create a  print,
however, it is a gap by definition of acceptance, so interpretation of acceptance, or rejection, above or below the "consolidation", is the
decider on exiting, if opposed positionaly waiting for the next series of rejections to build a profile
a small gap n go is good for buyers if that move gets rejected too, a swift pickup by deep pockets, that should allow the trader time to
wait for the next rejection or acceptance based on price and the time taken to rejection that move, if price does not rotate back to the consolidation area that does _not _ mean pile in on the new direction, it means the trader needs to shift from being directional-only to balancing the risk both ways, the difference between a puke and a break-out, the difference between acceptance or rejection of that move, is a context of it's own, if the trade is based on that context rather than the preference the trader is disposed to then the risk is attenuated
(this does not consider the positive expectancy pov, albeit, attenuating risk itself is a positive expectancy)

the worst sell is the meandering B sell, looks like a bid kicked in but it's merely presents an opportunity to sell that strength
without leaning, institutional sellers especially want price to come to their level which is what creates immeasurable yes/no trade
the bids kick in but it does not reach the level that major seller want, so they must now go down to where price is reaching and begin to distribute lower, they have to accept a lower value

the point is, again, annotating this on a chart and reviewing allows you to see something that you have not seen before, even if it merely
extracts you (by logic) from engaging in the auction, if you find you are getting trapped, you own the logic, you become a witness, you now own the evidence, you now protect with your emotive stance about that logic, the logic becomes your emotive logic even if this shifts you back into a "balanced" state of thought, you yourself are always swinging between these extremes

you have created a live positive expectancy for yourself with this simple step of annotation, you are "better" risk manager

as an example in real time


----------



## Joules MM1

the B complex 









						TradingView Chart
					

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B is for burst
when you feel a little burst and there's nothing left in the purse, diarrhea !


----------



## divs4ever

am wondering if this is actually a move to $US in an attempt to deleverage debt , of course it could be  a suppression to start a stampede into US Treasuries as well 

 good luck


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## Joules MM1

everybody was kung fu fighting those cats were fast as..... raging bulls, wut




11% of top clients were in sell to open positions with 14% of total capital in the sell side
16% of all clients totalled are in sell to open positions, 19% of the total available capital on the open sell side


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## Joules MM1

"when everybody wants to buy it, sell it to them!" Fari Hamzei (Hamzei Analytics)
top clients are 88% BTO 
we are now in the reject level, if price is now accepted at the lower level, offers keep accepting lower bids




last  tip,  the weekend beckons ☕🍲🥗🥙🫐🥝🥑🍒🍏🍠🫑🥦🥬🍋🍉


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## divs4ever

*** "when everybody wants to buy it, sell it to them!" Fari Hamzei (Hamzei Analytics) ***

 for me that depends on the income i am already recieving on it  , some of my shares are paying 20% (plus ) per annum at MY buying price 

 in the current market div. yields at current prices  are normally quite slender  , i think without the chance of share price appreciation  , the current market would almost be deviod of new investors 

 i am not one to eat or sell the golden goose while it is healthy and laying regularly


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## Joules MM1

new day new week new gig, upwards bias


----------



## divs4ever

currently gold producer stocks are acting differently .. not enough to hit my target prices  , but are mostly softer today


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## Joules MM1

buyers forced to accept higher prices, bodes well for uptrenders
if the rejection level gets retaken that would bring a lot of longside get-out 
cuz fooled me once can fool me again never foolin more fool you (miss (underestimated) you, George!)


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## Joules MM1

no followthru


----------



## Joules MM1

almost made it out, reversed, got faded by the faders


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## divs4ever

they need to suppress gold ( and silver ) to convince the punters to buy Treasury Bonds  ( ESPECIALLY since  the US debt ceiling limit approaches  )


----------



## DaveTrade

The big picture in Gold.


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

ii








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					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

iii
using the same signal as a continuation/rotation








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




good commitment to bids, offers get pulled


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## Joules MM1

iv 
to complete the sequence


----------



## Tropico

Interesting thread, not one to day trade gold myself.
Looking on the longer term there may be some stronger resistance around the current price.
Similarly, there could equally be a breakout toward USD1845.
My chart is starting to get very noisy, but i like looking at the historical influence and find it very interesting
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
.


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## Joules MM1

fair amount of sphincter relaxant, trending smoothly now








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

big picture https://www.tradingview.com/x/YvwOKtb6/


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## Joules MM1

the market is made up of the haves the have-nots and the gunna not have much after the other side has finished them off
...still your daddys market

#observation
narration in the *sentiment *probably carries the biggest question requiring an answer


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## divs4ever

as someone liable to buy ( extra ) gold producer stocks  in the coming month  , the overnight drop certainly caught my eye 

 will the market buy the dip or rush to the sidelines , i wonder


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## Joules MM1

divs4ever said:


> as someone liable to buy ( extra ) gold producer stocks  in the coming month  , the overnight drop certainly caught my eye
> 
> will the market buy the dip or rush to the sidelines , i wonder



rug-pulls come from two different posits
sellers out pace buyers, simply by weight
but the hardest judgement to make is where the likelyhood that buyers simply retract their bids altogether

(time in and the timing to get in and get out)
this is  the balance that assists the investors who are now getting likely frustrated by the constant yap from people like me
the balance is "time"   is the most expensive component beyond what a fundamentalist point of view can assess
for example if investors bought the story of gold in 2010 and thru 2012 and 2013 and 2014 etc how long did they have to wait to get to par

everyone times the market, anyone who says they dont time the market is literally wasting time
if you say you only transact when value is correct then you are by definition of logic timing the market

ignoring the time factor is fine for a trader when levels dictate executing order flows and volume basis, 
not for an investor altho most investors  would disagree
time is the one aspect of everything that you cannot replace

a trade is executed to buy then executed to exit or executed to sell then to buy back
the difference between a fundamental approach versus a technical approach is merely reasoning
the question is not whether we are right in the decision making process, the question is this:
how do we know we didnt just get lucky with a positive result, how do we prove that a positive result was by repetitive design?
..are you making a strawman theory or a steelman theory
a strawman theory relies on the market to prove future outcome in the investors favour
a steelman theory relies on repetition of evidence for positive outcomes that make sense in the time period one has or can allow for

so investors who go in on the basis of fundamentals that ignore psychology or herding will only see these things when
the value is readjusted in their portfolio, too late, the values that took them in are ultimately dictated by the auction, 
not by their logic about everything else, in extreme cases this does not apply, of course, 
the question then (given that "extreme" is a timing thing too) which end of extreme are we in, the extreme end of value is stretched
new investors refuse price discovery, conversely, are we at an extreme (circa 2000) when price is too dumbly priced not to buy
or.....this is the big one, is the market merely reflecting that the price (as a cost of future value) out of step as an expression of what is now defined as valuable and how has that value be re-rated given the nature of the application of the underlying goods 

you see the basic tenet of the value of the goods needs to be in-step (for or against) with that herding, price needs to reflect the correct level where we find value as a balance of expression, it is not your sense of the value that matters, it is the evidence you can prove that shows you are in-step with with everybody else is actually doing in the auction, given that the cup holders in your car embellished the price upwards (marked up) whereas, this year no one gives a toss about the same cup holders and your car is not re-selling at auctions like last year, but it will sell, at some price level, at some point in time, how much time do you want to allow?

again, an investor can lose everything by simply not participating, not taking any action is the "smart" thing to do when price is going in the right direction, how do you confirm that you have framed correctly ?

anyone who says herding and psychology misses the point in terms of book value, that, as an investor, you are part of that herding


i used to be different, now i'm the same

technical analysis is merely a stick to poke at the nest, a focal point, a very useful  tool(s) for investors

when price is moving at range of clip, i mean, its transacting at a round-about-ish rate, i often say don't buy the easy buy or dont sell the easy sell, it's absolutely non-sensical thing to say, right(!) yet it's the psychology within the print that says someone is on the wrong side of 
the money that has intent to use lazy-ness in their own favour (in other words, for example, when lazy feel good buyers are buying a slow dip it's often that theyre buying what someone banking and liquidity gangs assist in that action)

...the tulip/tea excursions would still have happened even with modern day technical analysis, we know this, because, crypto
technical analysis and fundamental analysis are merely focus of the same psychology, 
all analysis is merely an outlet of expression, the excuse we use to fulfill the drivers we have yet few recognise consciously


one of my biggest trading and investments mistake was in 2000 when xauusd was circling 300USD
i didnt have the technical chops to spot the evidence, to put activity into context, to understand the relative size of what was printing
even tho i suspected gold may become a very desired commodity again and i should get on it, so i didnt, spotting a rotational point
is both time risk and capital risk, when people say you shouldnt pick tops and bottoms, well, in my humble opinion, not so(!),  at some
point in the price print (your chart) or in the book value, an investor must agree on a where a bottom is or a top is, and that, by every construct of logic, is picking a top or a bottom, the practise place in seeing ALL the evidence and not just one focus defines how quickly
the correct decision can be executed, not worrying about being right or looking good, about effective outcomes, win or lose

...and these are just words on a page

coffee


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




amazing sentiment still runs high

price achieved 52.36% of the structure that is holding this bounce, price lengths narrowed, rates slowed
several channel broken, channel that should be built on a double bottom just failed

see no reason to close sells


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## Joules MM1

normal reversion to the centre line (in this instance  to both  the larger sloping channel and the newly formed channel








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

my prev working was wrong, but the sells have hold, the range has expanded, no reason for it to contract
at todays bounce high the perosnality of exchange instantly changed the buyers that took it up there are gone









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

not sure what can be gleaned from this as actionable other than oh that's interesting


----------



## divs4ever

gold ( -1% ) and silver (- 2 % ) are still under pressure currently


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## Joules MM1

divs4ever said:


> gold ( -1% ) and silver (- 2 % ) are still under pressure currently




...language plays a big role in bias
you maybe right of course(!) in that, if youre saying _*still *_under pressure, youre positing that the two metals are in an uptrend or upwards trajectory, whereas, if you were to posit that both metal may have completed a relief bounce or slumping back to trend, the bias is that both have trends (already) well underway
so then we would have to work out the context of what under pressure frames,
at what price level is the metal under pressure and what level
is the resumption of trend given evidence ?

price is always, to some extent, testing and restesting value levels, we could say we are simply testing where offers want to be accepted
the lower we go the more bids are accepted by offers, more sellers are willing to accept lower buyers, theyre getting less value, more buyer think theyre getting better value the more that price goes lower, but, what are the larger contexts where this is taking place?
how does the larger context frame this thinking ?

the idea here is to inspect our language, to keep out own balance

from a post higher up https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gy2nuY9S/
how that's playing out https://www.tradingview.com/x/O1HkQeyQ/


----------



## divs4ever

i see the commodity  rallies and dips ( especially when several move the same way at the same time ) as a reflection of the US dollar 

so when iron , silver  , gold and oil rally  , i see a sliding US dollar  , and that MAYBE smart money deleveraging or closing short positions  when this happens 

 now IF i was buying the physical  , i would be looking carefully at the premium to take  delivery  as a better guide to the commodity price 

 oil contracts went below  negative $US 40  so quite obviously there can be a major disconnect  between contracts and the physical commodity


----------



## Joules MM1

#sentiment


this says 19% of Top Clients are in Sell To Open @ 29% of the capital in position

of All Clients 16% are STO with 20% of capital in position
(cfd)

#bias


----------



## Joules MM1

signals, pos not shown


----------



## divs4ever

Gold’s Flash Crash: Calm After The Storm Or More To Come?









						Gold’s Flash Crash: Calm After The Storm Or More To Come? | Investing.com
					

Commodities Analysis by Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com) covering: XAU/USD, US Dollar Index Futures, Gold Futures, United States 10-Year. Read Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)'s latest article on Investing.com




					www.investing.com
				




 DYOR

 watch for the options expiry date ( whenever that is ) if there is enough volatility some serious sharks might be attracted


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




then








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sometimes confirmation has to be had before posting


----------



## Joules MM1

a where -to scratch








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

ok, fair enough https://www.tradingview.com/x/k4z134IL/


----------



## peter2

Not laughing at you but with you. The market has a mean sense of humour.  
Where are all the gold bulls, playing with crypto?
I'm buying at 1740 (SL 1725). Hoping it triggers soon in the UK/US sessions.

Noticed some buying in a beaten up (oversold) silver company today. It may portend a silver reversal soon.


----------



## divs4ever

i grabbed some extra RMS today  ( nothing close to a 'truckload' , but small buys carefully placed is my way , and the brokerage firms love my attitude )

interesting times


----------



## wayneL

divs4ever said:


> i grabbed some extra RMS today  ( nothing close to a 'truckload' , but small buys carefully placed is my way , and the brokerage firms love my attitude )
> 
> interesting times



A "truckload" is all relative to native volatility and account size.

Sometimes a Tonka toy truck load is very prudent


----------



## divs4ever

i rarely part with more than $3k on any stock in the current climate ( i think there is plenty of more uncertainty to come )

 ZIM and RRL in June and MGX in March   have been the recent 'bigger' buys ( all a little above $3K a parcel )

 gone ( seemingly )   are my $10k( plus ) buys  of various  Corporate Bonds/hybrids  that is so pre 2015


----------



## Joules MM1

positive response to the inflation #'s ........upto .....here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/eoiBVNlH/


----------



## Joules MM1

price is being taken along the centerline of the larger channel
we broke out of the (green) channel in and we are in Asia session with no follow-thru
so if the US/Euro market cannot kick on tonight the breakout may prove false
yep this isnt a day trade  i know it's simply getting a handle on who's dominating now
i remain in a sto  position from this morning








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Not laughing at you but with you. The market has a mean sense of humour.
> Where are all the gold bulls, playing with crypto?
> I'm buying at 1740 (SL 1725). Hoping it triggers soon in the UK/US sessions.
> 
> Noticed some buying in a beaten up (oversold) silver company today. It may portend a silver reversal soon.





yep, try the space industry and crypto ...or worse nft....best part of the protagonists is pushing nft's: "normals dont get nft's"
yeah, wot they said in the Netherlands a while ago
money even coming out of bonds ......just your decadal rotation, nuthin to see here


----------



## Cam019

XAUUSD long this afternoon. The entry was good but could have been better had I have waited, but I saw a break of structure on the 1 minute in a demand zone and got in. Trade was a 1 : 3.07 RR


----------



## peter2

peter2 said:


> I'm buying at 1740 (SL 1725). Hoping it triggers soon in the UK/US sessions.
> 
> Noticed some buying in a beaten up (oversold) silver company today. It may portend a silver reversal soon.




I'm doubly long gold and happier. Even my little mate silver has perked up tonight.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

peter2 said:


> Not laughing at you but with you. The market has a mean sense of humour.
> Where are all the gold bulls, playing with crypto?
> I'm buying at 1740 (SL 1725). Hoping it triggers soon in the UK/US sessions.
> 
> Noticed some buying in a beaten up (oversold) silver company today. It may portend a silver reversal soon.



I believe many players have moved from Au to Crypto. 

The numbers are large, but their spend is not. Also many new entrants because of lockdown are trading Crypto when in previous emergencies/disasters they would have gone Au.

Some large entities though are in to Crypto and when Crypto crashes as all tradables do from time to time Au will benefit. And it will add to the sense of panic. 

Panic is good for Au. Because of that I like Au. 

Which trader do you use @peter2 . I just use stocks as a proxy for Au. 

gg


----------



## divs4ever

don't forget Ag , although apart from S32 i cannot find an acceptable silver play ,  so try to accumulate coins ( maybe not always pure silver ones )


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## Joules MM1

1:1's
break the channel, it'll ask the question about stops for long-only players








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					www.tradingview.com


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## divs4ever

Gold Stalls as UBS Tells Buyers ‘Get Out’ Before Losses Worsen​








						Gold Stalls as UBS Tells Buyers ‘Get Out’ Before Losses Worsen
					

(Bloomberg) -- Gold slipped after finishing strongly last week, with UBS Group AG warning investors to rethink their bullion holdings as the global economy recovers and the greenback strengthens into next year.Bullion had been clawing back some ground over the past week after...




					au.finance.yahoo.com
				




 DYOR


 please note i am still trying to decide if to buy extra EVN , on-market or via the SPP

 and have a top-up in the market for more GOR

 so gold sliding further  is attractive to me 

 good luck


----------



## divs4ever

ALSO there should be an options expiry date  sometime soon 

those pesky BIG traders might be trying to escape a squeeze


----------



## divs4ever

Gold Stocks: A Tradeable Rally Now?​








						Gold Stocks: A Tradeable Rally Now?
					





					www.silverdoctors.com
				




 DYOR


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



barge is trying to jump over the canal wall .....if it does its a good time to sell barge poles ...um ..and get some decent analogies(?)


----------



## Joules MM1

claxson
call for last drinks








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## Joules MM1

that old trick








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



can't make an omelette without cracking an egg unless youre vegan then no eggs .....
can't break a channel without someone cracking with it.....


----------



## Tropico

A lot of convergence of different trends.

One will eventually become dominatate, possibly a new one.


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## Joules MM1

right thread!!



the above chart shows the overnight open sell, stop just above, the set-up for further declines has not played out, 
it important to not waste the available play while it is clear, it is also important to defend the set-up with counter DT's
above you see small size counter BTO's split STC levels, just shy of the designated target 
(which did hit the target but sometimes do not reach the level - that's a hint of the underlying strength/weakness, about rejection)




buys banked, we now wait to see if the structure that should play out prints (this-mean-this game)
(note how weak the local $XGD is) 




we hit the target for a second structural sell, news fits the trend, i lower the risk on the overnight in two ways:
positionally and with the longside hits earlier, i need to know if the "measured" move is endogenous or one of those pesky
"liquidity gangs know everything" things (yeah, a fake)


so stops shift:

below is the structural set-up as price was falling out of the minor channel 
(note the EDW tip-off and the following limp uphill before the exit of the channel)


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## Joules MM1

non-confirmation from silver

#perspective #pov 








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## Joules MM1

the question being asked, where is the execution as opposed to where is the belief








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#executable


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## Joules MM1

mega's with a sell signal








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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> mega's with a sell signal
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false flag ?


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## peter2

Oh, megaphones, that are usually a sell pattern. You gotta get off those 1 min charts. They'll give you the heebie jeebies.


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## Joules MM1

lol
suits you sir !!








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## peter2

Seems there's a bullish scent in the air. All the PMs are currently green for the day. We like seeing green.


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## Joules MM1

lol, it's the daytrading thread




stop wearing that Brute33 and get a new scent


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## Joules MM1

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reversal wedgie, someone about to get nadgered


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## Joules MM1

where do buyers protect their levels ?
overhead channel saw exhaustion as the roof was hit









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and below not exactly blazing commitment either way




with the sell


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> where do buyers protect their levels ?
> overhead channel saw exhaustion as the roof was hit
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the shove https://www.tradingview.com/x/j50d1fAS/


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## Joules MM1

when the DT evolves into a larger swing(down)

interruption in 3's (up n down) 
#construction 








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## Joules MM1

an hour of strong volatility early this morning as swing traders exited longs, as the intermediate upchannel was confirmed broken

for players who missed the big low we are now in the return/retest journey
from a larger trend perspective the bulls can hold confidence the construct still favours them, below 1717 uh-oh above 1809 happy days

with the sell still









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## Joules MM1

risk defined
channel snaps, standard ratios snap (1:1 and 1:1.272)
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See more on tradingview.com




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with the bid


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> risk defined
> channel snaps, standard ratios snap (1:1 and 1:1.272)
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that got sloppy very quickly, out flat, scoping a sell


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## peter2

Whoa, was that you?


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## divs4ever

GEE !!
 what chance that second parcel of GOR , tomorrow 

 spectacular ( in a scary way )

 will $1750 hold ??


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## Joules MM1

was a nice rip, @peter2

smell like teen uptrend now, shall ride this for what it can provide sub 1779 is a the ugly zone








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i think bulls got happy feet, with good reason(s)


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## Joules MM1

momo


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## Joules MM1

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off to the races, channel tested confirmed, fits the EWP profile

impulsive lift, risk 1785

with the bid !!


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## Joules MM1

keep in mind that all the technical ideas all retail and small managers follow, the deep pockets, they know everything too,
they know the levels where vital account decisions get made, it's not about the trending value, it's about the levels that are
routinely set by different tiers of money, the size you play and the type of play you use maybe quite different to mine, however,
there is little (if anything) unknown in the trade sphere, what is most important is to keep an eye on the relative size and the context
your ability to play detective with patience and understand about the player on the other side of your trade, what is their intent?

if anything, avoidance of saying something is so when there is no benchmark, price is always printing a new signal, price is merely an expression of intent, how that is contextualised, before trading begins, determins how quickly a bias can be let go,
by default we are biased to honed knowledge and the need to be right

focus on where $silver broke the up-sloping channel, it's a fake drop-out, one of those moments to look back to as a defining "event"
well organized, maybe, simply how the auction organizes itself, most likely
upto that point there was a clear series of non-confirmations from silver and vice versa, from xauusd

with the print you see here, i say, this is technical confirmation, with the action of silver re-entering it's up-slope,
one could argue, that on such a near-term period, silver merely "dipped" thru the floor of it's gentle and easy-to-miss up-sloping channel

again, i maybe wrong with this idea of a confirmation signal, given when and where this signal has printed, if we put aside that $xauusd
has made considerable more headway at this point since the double bottom, we can look back as the overall print and suggest, that,
as silver is its own auction and follows it's own supply-demand, it merely has to offer a precision moment, a landmark

the lows of silver and xauusd now mark the be-all end-all of the two uptrends, they go the bulls go too
the difficulty, from an account point of view, that those lows are now higher risk, given that is true, we should expect
major players to open their wallets, not so much to chase available at the offer, rather to lower the risk, the closer i enter to lows
the lower the risk, the yin and yang of calling lows, rather, as i have this week, called the secondary signals, this switches my focus to a larger swing rather than day to day for xauusd

that's me rant, captain!


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## Joules MM1

getting the days supplies from the GMTFO store








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## Joules MM1

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## peter2

I hadn't seen your latest "rant". 

Love the 1st paragraph. We are fish food in the trading ocean. 

You didn't buy into that low did you? Seems you did. 

And then you bought that RSI divergence.  Nice job.

Like you, I love seeing the fake-outs (false BOs, false BDs) in gold and oil markets. They appear in the FX markets as well. The insto sharks feed on the bait balls. Rounding them up into a tight ball just below/above key levels.


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## Joules MM1

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price broke the minor channel after spending time in the voc resistance zone, tomorrows nfp/unemployment releases off a kicker

..with the offer


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## KevinBB

My longer term end-of-day system (mixture of moving average crossovers and breakouts) has been neutral gold for a couple of weeks but, if price holds these levels, the system is within a couple of days of giving a long signal.

It will be interesting to see how this works out over the next few days.

KH


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## Joules MM1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hGoU2uXE/ not all one-way traffic

rotation at the inverted 127.2 level

$$ pting !!


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## Joules MM1

jsyk



wakey wakey hand off


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## Joules MM1

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see above: the  overhead wall taking time to get thru

lack of drive/followthru on news release, an attempt to squeez thru the overhead levels(?)
lack of commitment from money that matters, this is the most bearish $xauusd has rep'd for several years
but is it bearish enough to signal a counter-intuitive position ......meantime, levels are levels 1814 s the ideal return to release level


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## Joules MM1

beuller trade


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## Joules MM1

#ratio








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how to not miss the train, ensuring that if alighting the risk is adjusted to the same ratio resistance
at this point the ratio confirms current move (continuation) or should rebalance thinking on immediate risk and direction

------------------------------
"A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step." -Lao Tzu
"um, are you going the right way tho, mate ?" -TraderJazzHands


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## Joules MM1

$xauusd pov #vpoc #symmetry #structure 








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## Garpal Gumnut

Just to put the day trading of Gold in to perspective the 20 year picture is worth viewing. 

It is now worth the same as it was 10 years ago and 6 times the value of 20 years ago in USD. 

Its swinging about 1800 atm, so for day traders this is heaven ,as you have a good branch on which to hang your swing. 

That is unless the branch brakes or some Cryptic event puts it on a higher branch.




gg


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## Joules MM1

with the offer, still !








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$xauusd if this count is correct, centreline of the channel is the magnet,
sellers are not keen, buyers are, less likely an impulsive rip as
most of the damage already done, not until 1716's


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## Joules MM1

#pov








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## Joules MM1

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analogues dont play out regularly, when they do, especially if theyre an echo, theyre worth while considering


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## Joules MM1

channeling
close up : https://www.tradingview.com/x/NY0FHwSL/
context: https://www.tradingview.com/x/v4YAII12/


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## Joules MM1

interesting to see what happens here, the operating channel after the second (analogue) failed bull flag saw solid sell printing this
morning, no signal to close STO's








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my bet is we continue to search lower next few days


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## Joules MM1

two analogue bull flag fails, one bear flag successful
holding over the weekend, deeper we go









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## Joules MM1

i was a bit keen on calling that, flag incomplete, price has not ventured further than the prior low, have redrawn the small flag, 
no impulsive sell down, yet, likely several sessions of churn, sentiment remains high, clearly thru the number of players
not necessarily thru the % of capital at buy-side risk
23 Sept (US) Fed target rate, Interest on excess reserves and projection for Fed Funds rate, most prob a kicker









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## Joules MM1

flag already snapped(?)
no China cash today/tomorrow and Hong Kong closed wednesday, mixed bag of liquidity this week








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## Joules MM1

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there were a couple of ratios that i thought would make for a decent rotation join at 1770
in the rolling front month cash $xauusd, as you can see the centreline gets validated, price has small
rotation at the middle of the channel, 1770 looking not so likely but no impulsive run down (yet)
.......the Fed funds rate/outlook looms
no reason thus far to close sell-to-opens
sentiment remains bullish viewed thru cap applied to buy-to-open positions by retail cfd players


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## Joules MM1

observation








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channel now confirmed down after the news rip that allowed players to exit on the strength


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## Joules MM1

for the knowledge bank
simple ratio one to one, nice set-up








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 all these spikes n games are allowing sellers to distribute
sellers are gaming price to induce

the above is the GC continuous
below is the standard cfd i refer on tradingview it aligns with the cfd desk i use
a harmonic set-up and information about immediate (daily at least) direction:








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## Joules MM1

concise set-up








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retail and top client traders were 80% long into the set-up ..belief versus price


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## Joules MM1

end of month buying and probably an attempt to squeez on a long game, but ball needs to cross the line to score !




lets play "flag or flog"








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## Joules MM1

not hanging my hat on this, may make a decent swing trade south, risk defined
looks complicated, in process very simple, broken down we have several channels, clearly defined
two prior failed flags, price held at resistance in a bounce structure, it's a rare ratio for xauusd, i'll take it, scaled









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## Joules MM1

..an then an  attempted a squeez ?








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have some of that, thanks !!


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## Joules MM1

squeez fail ?


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## Joules MM1

fridays trade was tad messy for me, i found it hard to read what was transpiring, hence the 3 sets of trades
the final series i decided to leave a set open over the weekend and that was mostly due to :

1 the unusual covering bar that was likely printing
2 the way that transacting suddenly dissipated at the low, sat on a tenuous support line, price lengths became extreme shallow,
   that shallowness and lack of volatility was likely confirming the day bar
3 especially the sentiment within the cfd:
  of the "Top-Clients" only 23% of those traders were STO yet they held 63% of the
  available capital in the open sell positions
  of the "All-Clients" 82% of participants were BTO (buy to open) ...that's keen!
4 we had a 20point sprint north on the news release, a rotation saw a 26point clean sell south

it is normal for prices in index and major commods to retake a news release level, only this sell did not falter until well passed the release level, suggests monday we are likely to see some discount buying with a follow-thru below saturday mornings 1755's low

this is not a normal ball market activity, i go so far as to say we have a concerted effort here to flush out shorterm buyers
as you can see from the third trade chart the total numbers of traders are who are keen to buy what the gurus are spruiking


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## Joules MM1

CRB wots up with this ?








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some constituents are on a rip








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tin inc for reference

part of what makes a thin trade is the relative value within,
a genuine bull market is driven up by the largest cap constituents
so if GC1 and SI are not in the game, do we have a genuine commodities bull run ?

the only other question is how come (it seems to me) so many people are seeing the next great bull run
...at the bottom of a bear cycle?

we continue with fridays covering bar today


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## peter2

My daily and 4hr trend indicators are up for gold. 
Golds breaks out of the Aussie session and makes a dash for it during the UK session.  I'm not on. Woe is me. 
Silver is also rallying along with the other PMs. High ho silver (I've got some SLV).


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## peter2

As expected the US news (CPI) does it again to the gold day traders.


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## Joules MM1

not everybody got the memo on the NFP release .....rinse repeat, but, clearly, selling dissipates as buyers are still soaking up supply in the 1750-60 zone

might have to give my last sell away !


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## Joules MM1

we should at least tap 1800-1802's (roof of downchannel)
an impulsive bid thru 1781's (more than just taking out the sell-stops)
 puts big smile on the buyers dial


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## Joules MM1

$XGD likely to get heavy this week on $xauusd breaking 1772's








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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> $XGD likely to get heavy this week on $xauusd breaking 1772's
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 back to that tacky question "when does a DT become a swing trade.... become a trend trade?"









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## Joules MM1

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price is very compressed and likely to get extremely volatile 
prudence suggests reducing size until a break-away prints
...favouring  sell to open


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## Joules MM1

we met the level in the above chart this morning, i sold to open,
that level (risk) is clearly defined, bulls have the easy leg up here and only need to hold 1760's








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## Joules MM1

this has to be the craziest i have ever seen cfd positioning  xauusd



yellow arrows are my sell to opens


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## Cam019




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## Sean K

Cam019 said:


>




Yeah, I've got 1770 as a bump.


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## Joules MM1

sentiment is over the top bullish, below the % are capital placed in buy to open positions, again,
these margined positions are not hedging, there is no doubt that these players think they have a bargain nailed
on  a short term basis they maybe correct, but this is not an overnight phenom, this has persisted for months
and now the numbers are at the zenith


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## Joules MM1

https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer
		


..


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