# How much have you lost on shares in the last 3 days?



## Realist (8 June 2006)

discuss...



anyone actually ahead overall on the last 3 days?

I certainly aint.


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## mit (8 June 2006)

Up until around 2:30 today I was. Does anybody know what happened?

MIT


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## powerkoala (8 June 2006)

a LOT ????


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## BlackTie (8 June 2006)

Down 4 days in a row... unexpected... without a stop loss in place... lost heaps on paper...


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## powerkoala (8 June 2006)

someone shoot me in the head............ :swear:


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

About 10K. 50K in last 4 weeks. Expecting another 10K to disappear in the next month but who knows, things may turn around quicker than expected.


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## GreatPig (8 June 2006)

Very little, as I've only got a few small positions open.

Cheers,
GP


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## jet-r (8 June 2006)

this is unbelievable,  the index is heading straight towards 4800s...

I sold everything at 1pm this arvo   at bid price!!! I wouldve lost anohter 2k if I am still holding    :swear:


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## powerkoala (8 June 2006)

13K.....
omg.....


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## 3 veiws of a secret (8 June 2006)

I'm just glad I don't Margin lend ,or do CFD's......But I reckon the stockbrokers are still smiling! 
I leave the screen on ,go out chop some wood ,tidy the weeding section in the garden....come back look at the screen, still red spot specials on the 23 stock portfolio.Not funny when the portfolio has 4  stocks parked , 4 on green ,and the rest- you do the maths!


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

I've lost about $700 today!

Yesterday down a bit maybe only $200!

Lost about $500 Tuesday!


Yeeouch.  If only there was a nearby window I could jump from   



When will this end?  I'll be watching the Dow tonite!


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

Relax!! All this does is present opportunities. The market always reclaims past highs even if it takes a few years. In this case, it'll be later this year. Start searching out the bargains!!


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## MalteseBull (8 June 2006)

this would describe it:

 :swear:


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## GreatPig (8 June 2006)

Might be getting to see if all these 4800-4900 bottom theories are correct very shortly.

If not, 4600 here we come...

GP


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## jet-r (8 June 2006)

just out of curiosity, 

After the recent down turn, how many of you guys are still in the green since the beginning of the calendar year.

Since 1st Jan 2006
I have invested about 100k
Peak unrealised profit: 27k

Current position:
Realised profit: 19k
Unrealised loss: 1k

Net gain since 1st Jan  18k

How about you guys?


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

GP, I reckon 4800-4900 will do it, because we have all decided that's where it is. It's where the professional analysts have probably put their support level at as well, therefore, they'll all be buying once it hits that level. As will I.


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

ASX down 2.2%  today!!

I'm down 1.3% today only thankfully!


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

I'm back to where I was in Jan but have made some bad decisions. Lost 25% since start of May. $50K.


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## powerkoala (8 June 2006)

This is nuts....
one by one follow to RED zone...
even the green one become red
the black one also red....
what the.... :swear:


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

I just bought some RIO at 73.70


good buy?


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## GreatPig (8 June 2006)

Hey, my PPC is up around 5.8% today at the moment. 

RCD is up a little too.

Cheers,
GP


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## jet-r (8 June 2006)

08/06/2006 	16:02:04 	14,280 	$73.70


is that you?  the lucky last that got the best price today.

hang on. thats over $1mill worth.


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## Mumbank (8 June 2006)

Realist I think that is a great move.  I too have lost a bit = not a great amount - on paper, thankfully until today BNB kept it looking fine.  It's only on paper anyway and I have already cut some loses for tax purposes.  I'm gonna sit tight, pay must less attention to the market until things settle, and probably drag some funds out of other "safe" places to take advantage of some of the low prices for quality stocks.  I'm just not sure this is a time for "playing" with speccies.  The other point is that probably not much good news will come out 'cause it wouldn't have much effect on prices anyway at the present.   Lets hope it settles shortly. There is usually a sell off before a Long Weekend anway so goodness only knows what tomorrow will bring.


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

> 08/06/2006 16:02:04 14,280 $73.70
> 
> 
> is that you? the lucky last that got the best price today.
> ...




Yep. That is me!!

Except, I bought only 40 shares.  $3000 worth.    :   


I've always wanted RIO and this is the price they were in Jan, so what the hell.


You've got to have the balls when the market drops to get in and have a go!!

RIO will be $100 this time next year!!


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## powerkoala (8 June 2006)

Last time on january 06
Bought RIO for 75... then went down to 68... hang myself.. lucky got special dividend.... Sold on 76... then fly to 85... shoot myself in the head... 
Now it went back to 73????????
What a joke... :swear:


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

> Realist I think that is a great move.




Well I've been eyeing RIO for months, missed out on a bid when they were 66 a while back and regretted it, got in at 3:59pm today. No regrets!



> There is usually a sell off before a Long Weekend anway so goodness only knows what tomorrow will bring.




I hope not!! 

I think it all depends on the Dow, if that goes down tonite we're in for a horrible day tomorrow.


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

Good work Realist. Anyone with balls would be buying right this minute. Mine are still on the sidelines!


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## jet-r (8 June 2006)

this is gambling, if you look at the the patterns of the last few down turns, the big drop of more than 1% usually would followed by at least another one. 

personally I would hang on and get ready to cash in near the 4800s.


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## BlackTie (8 June 2006)

I jumped into the market too quickly when see it dips and bounce back last week thinking it will back to normal.  Lost $5K in a few days. 

Have to pay the "tuition fees" to get smarter.


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

Jet-r, I'm waiting till 4800 as well.


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

> this is gambling, if you look at the the patterns of the last few down turns, the big drop of more than 1% usually would followed by at least another one.
> 
> personally I would hang on and get ready to cash in near the 4800s.




Well it is 4878 now.   4800 is 0.15% lower. Bugger all really, if they go down 1% tomorrow so be it!

If the Dow has a bad run tonite we'll get there tomorrow no doubt. No big deal.

Will it go down mre than that - I doubt it.

But with Rio it was $88 a month ago, if I offered it to people at $73.70 then everyone and their dog would have jumped at the offer.    

The ASX was up near 5350 in May nd is now below 4900, that's a fairly large correction. We're getting close to where we were at the start of the year.

Time to buy??  Dunno, but I wanted RIO and $73.70 is good price


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## jet-r (8 June 2006)

73.7 is a good price. if you compare the current situation with what was earlier this year. the fundamentals hasnt changed.

we all know back then, the resource price can not go up forever, the interest rate will go up. 2006 will be another good year with respectable level of growth.

what we have now is some reality that confirms these presumptions. I reckon its all technical now, I have sold all of my holdings when the AORD breached the support level of 4939 this arvo and expect the 4800 support level to be tested very shortly.

time will tell


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

Okay Jet-R - what is your tip for the following..

Where the ASX hit the lowest point this year (post February)?

what it will be June 30?

What it will be Dec 30?


And my tips are...

4850 (tomorrow will eb the yearly low post Feb)
4900
5270


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

Jet-r, RIO could be $100 in a year, so it's a solid bet at this price. And you are obviously still prepared for some short term volitility over the next month.


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## Porper (8 June 2006)

jet-r said:
			
		

> just out of curiosity,
> 
> After the recent down turn, how many of you guys are still in the green since the beginning of the calendar year.




Not sure for the whole year as here in New Zealand our tax year finishes end of March.

Since then had enormous peak to valley drawdown (think that is the expression).Shot up like a rocket thinking I had found the answer to huge profits  , only to lose 70% of it all (profit that is)    .So all in all I feel like I have done abysmally but in fact I suppose coming down to earth with a bump can be a learning curve for us all.


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

> After the recent down turn, how many of you guys are still in the green since the beginning of the calendar year.




I'm up 4% overall this year counting dividends and brokerage fees.  

Mainly from a Nasdaq tock though.  

The ASX is killing me.


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## justjohn (8 June 2006)

im down about 17k over the last couple of weeks but dont begrudge giving some back, done well over the past 2-3 years the market will bounce back in due time ,the problem is a lot of new investors are not use to these type of movements in the market


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## Jay-684 (8 June 2006)

Started the year @ $97,000

Peaked @ $129175 on 11/5

since then lost $16,674, currently @ $112,501

as for this week, Mon - up $2,000, Tue, Wed, Thu, down $6,000

feels really bad to be up 30% after 5 months, only to then be only 12% up after 6 months!

My head is telling me to get myself a margin loan and buy BHP and ZFX if the ASX stabilises at around 4800, but my gut is telling me otherwise.... the stress would kill me, and I'm only 21!


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## Realist (8 June 2006)

> My head is telling me to get myself a margin loan and buy BHP and ZFX if the ASX stabilises at around 4800.




Your head is wrong.  

This is no time for margin loans.

You are 21.  How did you get $97K to invest?    

I wish I had that much money at 21.  Actually I wish I had that now.


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## twojacks28 (8 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> discuss...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




im up quite a bit!!!   Emitch going through the roof!


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## sarahmeehan3 (8 June 2006)

i HAVE NOT SOLD. BUT DOWN 11,000 AT THE MOMENT.
WHY?
BECAUSE I BOUGHT ON HOPE. NEVER AGAIN.
INDICATORS WERE TELLING ME IT WAS NOT RIGHT TO BUY.
THIS IS A LESSON FOR ME TO STICK TO MY POLICY.
LIVE AND LEARN.

REGARDS

SARAH


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## Smurf1976 (8 June 2006)

I'm somewhat concerned about this "correction" in the market simply because practically everyone thinks it's "only a correction". History shows the majority are usually wrong about things concerning money and so I'm completely out of the market for the moment and have been for a while now.

I also maintain the view that I have had for quite a while now that all surprises with interest rates will be to the upside. I'm expecting 2 more rises from the RBA by Christmas and, whilst that may be it for a while, rates to be very much higher than at present at some point over the next 10 years (probably sooner). Why? Simply because all that cheap credit is getting rather hard to hide under the CPI rug and people are starting to notice the bulge under the carpet.


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## serp (8 June 2006)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> I also maintain the view that I have had for quite a while now that all surprises with interest rates will be to the upside. I'm expecting 2 more rises from the RBA by Christmas




If that happens, I wouldn't be surprise to see the market at 4500 and under when I woke up after bringing in the new year 

I love watching the market tumble, I feel more excited about the stockmarket when this happens. Of course, I'm not in the market at the moment!


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## 3 veiws of a secret (8 June 2006)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> I'm somewhat concerned about this "correction" in the market simply because practically everyone thinks it's "only a correction". History shows the majority are usually wrong about things concerning money and so I'm completely out of the market for the moment and have been for a while now.
> 
> I totally agree with you Smurf1976 ,and my main gripe is the commodity of OIL ...... I smell a rat ,it has all the hallmarks of what happened when OPEC up'ed the price of oil in the 1970's.Someone is crunching the figures of who is paying AUS $ 1.45 @ the bowser. Once the transport industry stops ,I can only see interests rates heading north.....forget about the 3 days of losses ,there's more to come.


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## jet-r (8 June 2006)

For months, I have seen journals analysis brokers u name it.. talking about a correction is due soon. and here we are, the long anticipated correction is finally  happening. As most of us here are tearing on our diminishing paper profit and even losses, those bears and people with short position are laughing their ways to the bank.

A correction like this is a healthy one, you should be really goddamn worried if the resources are still hitting record highs and the market is near 5600 now. It will be a crash instead of a correction. 

think positive


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## imajica (8 June 2006)

Im fairly new to the stockmarket game

initial investment - 4k

current portfolio value - 12k

was lucky enough to get into the u3o8 float


was up to 15k since the start of the year but has depreciated by 3k over the last few weeks

at the end of the year the correction will be over and the market will gain strength again. 

remember, its not a loss until you sell - sometimes you have to have a longview


If you look after the pennies, the dollars will look after themselves


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## mit (8 June 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> I totally agree with you Smurf1976 ,and my main gripe is the commodity of OIL ...... I smell a rat ,it has all the hallmarks of what happened when OPEC up'ed the price of oil in the 1970's.Someone is crunching the figures of who is paying AUS $ 1.45 @ the bowser. Once the transport industry stops ,I can only see interests rates heading north.....forget about the 3 days of losses ,there's more to come.




I'm not too upset about the price of oil being high. Its the only way to get the powers to be to do something about getting us off this addiction before it runs our for real.

MIT


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

Ahhh stop being so negative, everything is good at the moment!!

We had a huge correction from about 2000 to 2004.

Sure the market's gone up a fair bit recently.

From 1984 to 1987 it went from 710 to about 2300. It more than tripled!!

From 2003 it was about 2700 to now 4900 that is not even double!!

You need to look at these things logarithmically.   1000 to 2000 is doubling. 10000 to 11000 is the same 1000 increase but only a 10% increase not doubling.

There is no way in hell all stocks are overpriced.  

BHP, CBA, RIO, ZFX, WDC, FGL, etc etc are all making huge profits!!!

If companies are making huge profits and there P/E ratios are not even above the average there aint no problem in my opinion. BHP's is less than 12.3 at the moment. You are buying the best mining company in the world!

Get in there and buy some shares now while they are cheap!!

If you think BHP is overpriced at $26.50 or RIO at $73.50 you are dreaming.

Come back to this thread June 30 June 2007 and you'll see I was right!


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## Ageo (9 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> If companies are making huge profits and there P/E ratios are not even above the average there aint no problem in my opinion. BHP's is less than 12.3 at the moment. You are buying the best mining company in the world!
> 
> Get in there and buy some shares now while they are cheap!!
> 
> ...




Unless BHP or RIO change there operations/management or even close down i think you will be right on this 1   

$50 minimum looks like a good price for BHP. Considering there earnings and future forecast earnings.

Adrian


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

I just put a bid in for BHP at 26.50.

I think I'll just miss it!


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

I just bought 100 BHP at 26.60!!  

Surely a good buy!  

$38 this time next year + good dividends!


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

Ahh I should have left it at 26.50. I just screwed myself out of a whole $10


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## jet-r (9 June 2006)

I wouldnt jump in as yet.

Have a look at last night's metal price, the base metals are down from 3-7% http://www.kitcometals.com/

I think the market is doing a "the dead cat bounce"


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## professor_frink (9 June 2006)

been a surprisingly strong open this morning. Looks like alot of people are relieved wall st didn't lose another 100 overnight!


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

> I wouldnt jump in as yet.
> 
> Have a look at last night's metal price, the base metals are down from 3-7%




I don't care what metal prices do day to day.

BHP, the worlds greatest mining company is on sale, today only!!  $26.60 get in while you can!!

See you this time next year to celebrate our profits!


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## Ageo (9 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I don't care what metal prices do day to day.
> 
> BHP, the worlds greatest mining company is on sale, today only!!  $26.60 get in while you can!!
> 
> See you this time next year to celebrate our profits!





I will be buying 20000 CFD's BHP in the next week or so.

Margin requirement is around $16000.

For the people that are freaking out over the leverage and about a margin call well i have over 7 times that in reserve. Unless BHP go broke or start losing money in the next 12months (i highly doubt it!) i will be enjoying those gains month by month.


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## Sean K (9 June 2006)

I have just bought some more and topped up on HDR. Both oversold.


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## GreatPig (9 June 2006)

Kennas,

On what basis have you decided that BHP and HDR are oversold?

Cheers,
GP


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## Sean K (9 June 2006)

GP, 

Stochastics, Bollinger Band and 100 day MA. % losses greater relative than market.

Great companies. 

May drop a little more, but who can pick the absolute bottom? Have to pull the trigger at some point. These are long term plays. Price of oil hasn't dropped much and these companies valuations are based on about $50 a barrel oil (I think). It's still around $70 and will probably go higher in the coming year.


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## bullmarket (9 June 2006)

Ageo said:
			
		

> Unless BHP or RIO change there operations/management or even close down i think you will be right on this 1
> 
> $50 minimum looks like a good price for BHP. Considering there earnings and future forecast earnings.
> 
> Adrian




I think $50 is a little optimistic for BHP.  The weekly chart looks a little wobbly in the knees for me and imo the growth in earnings for 2006/2007 is mostly factored into the price already, especially at its recent high.

A lot will depend on whether the market believes BHP will reach its 2007 forcasts and even if it does the forcast for 2008 is fairly flat after 2007.

Bottom line....watch carefully imo 

Forcast numbers from Commsec

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
       2005  2006  2007  2008 
EPS 128.4 222.4 262.0 263.2 
DPS   36.7  47.9  52.9   56.2 

cheers

bullmarket


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## Ageo (9 June 2006)

bullmarket said:
			
		

> Bottom line....watch carefully imo




im always carefull Bull


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## darian (9 June 2006)

i'm break even from june last year. yeah lost so much profits!!!


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## bullmarket (9 June 2006)

good to hear ageo


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## dodgers (9 June 2006)

I'm back to where I was in February - 60% profit over 12 months. Before this correction started I was 160% up...c'est la vie...! 

I've got about 20 stocks in my portfolio...all oil, gold and resources - mainly mid tiers co's


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## jet-r (9 June 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> GP,
> 
> Stochastics, Bollinger Band and 100 day MA. % losses greater relative than market.
> 
> ...





HDR faces some serious operating issues on their Chinguetti oilfield, the cost for them to overcome these problems will eat away a lot of their profit. Who knows how much would it cost. 

on the technical side, they have broken through the $1.71 resistant, then 1.625, the next resistant is at 1.38 (the lowest point since April 2004). 

I have sold my holding at 2.43 in April,  then made two loss trades that has given back half of my profit on HDR.


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## dragonball (9 June 2006)

lost 6K.  :swear:


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## justjohn (9 June 2006)

The ASX is starting to slide again   this could be an interesting finish to the week :alcohol:


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## Sean K (9 June 2006)

Jet-r, I have $1.25 and then $.65c! as my two support levels. Agree on Chinguetti to some extent, but recent agreement with the Mauritanian Government (Military) is heartening. Sort of. Everything has a bit of risk. I think it's more on the upside with this now. 

Getting back to the topic, I think I'm down another $5K the last 2 days, so that's about $60K since April.   

Margin Loan will come in handy soon and used to effect. I hope!


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

> The ASX is starting to slide again  this could be an interesting finish to the week




It sure is.    :swear: 

BHP and RIO are slightly under what I paid for them, dammit!!

I think the ASX will finish up about 5 to 15 points today.


And the next trading day, Tuesday.  Al depends on the 2 US trading days in between.


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## Sean K (9 June 2006)

Buy more Realist!


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## mit (9 June 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Buy more Realist!




ooh, Could be catching knives there.

MIT


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

BHP is down to $26


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## Sean K (9 June 2006)

Ouch!   

Did the market just go pear shaped agin in the past 5 minutes?


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

Ouch the market has turned today again!!    

4878 now!


BHP is $26    :swear: 

I'm up for the day though.....just


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## Ageo (9 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Ouch the market has turned today again!!
> 
> 4878 now!
> 
> ...





$25 looks like a nice entry for BHP


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## kevo (9 June 2006)

Thousands. I bought 38100 put warrants DOW 11000 expiry next week so I am, of course, hoping the market, in the US continues down and hits 10000 next week, they will be worth .50 or more or zero next thursday.  If that happens all my losses are washed away! Yesterday was a key reversal day in the US, so we would normally expect a rally next week but lots of that buying could be silly buying caused by short covering and terrorism excitment that all is well now that Zak is dead. I was very good with stops but got slack. If I may suggest that you guys put a trailing conditional stop. You got to keep reminding yourself that it best to be out if its going down.

If you take a look at http://www/kontentkonsult.com/press/ you can read my market report for yesterday. 

If you go to www.kontentkonsult.com you can read how bullish I am on Gold long term! Check out a advertisment for me.

If your holding Gold or uranium juniors you will probably be OK. But remember how many more you would have if you remembered to SELL strength and BUY weakness.

YOU MUST USE STOPS OR HEDGE GUYS.


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## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

BHP $25.99 now all ord just hangin on


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## kevo (9 June 2006)

McKern’s Market Report 8/6/06 (No.1)
June 8th, 2006 
Well, I been throwing off “other peoples posts” for months now, like crazy, and writing this and that but its time I bit the bullet. The real purpose of this site was to create a framework that would bring discipline and planning to my investing and trading. Over the next 48 months massive opportunities will unfold and these market reports will record the  successes and failures, the stories that drove my trading, my big picture view and the trading plans going forward.

Over the last few years I’ve been on the right track but impatience and inexperience cost me dearly. If I had stopped trading in June 2004 my account would now be worth over $250,000. I saw the commodity bull coming back in 2002 and started buying Oxiana, but after losing my job in 2004, I got hot for a big win, lost perspective and blew up shorting the US market that year. A big mistake!

OK, lesson learnt.  My first piece of advice therefore is to remind you all to remember Buffet’s first two rules for making money in the market.

 1) Don’t lose money. 2) Don’t forget rule 1.

Market Action

Well, its looking like a bear market guys. The cyclical bear within the secular bear is back. Clearly, in my view at least, the US Bull market ended in 2000 and the action since then has been a massive topping formation that ended three weeks ago. I think that there is a 80% chance that the Australian market has joined the bear, but there is a small chance that we will see new highs before we experience the really major correction. The odds that new highs for the market indexes are dead ahead, are however getting smaller every day. Japan’s monetary base is shrinking and world liquidity is in decline. As Faber has pointed out, we were in a situation where stocks, commodities, bonds, gold and everything else was going up. When assets that do not normally move together do so, its liquidity driven. That the world’s “money preasure” is falling is clear and the impact showed up in the fingers and toes first, middle eastern markets are down 50%. In fact, Icelandic bonds were the first domino to fall, followed by emerging markets and commodities, followed by problems in Asia the US. What I expect is that the US market will continue down until mid October at least. I’s say 8000 on the DOW is a reasonable target. As for the US gold indexes, near a bottom, I’d say, but of course I might be wrong: in a market driven my margin calls and defensive selling everything is going to get sold off if we get a crash. The odds of a crash to DOW 8000 are about 30% and rising. Stay posted.

Currently I’m long Oxiana, both warrants and shares with the expectation that today represents the floor for the stock. I an also short the DOW via Citi warrants. That trade is looking good. Of course, I’m kickin myself I went short too soon and didn’t sell my OXR at the May top and load the boat with more shorts, but the way I hedged my longs with June 11,000 puts does look like protecting me from losses. But as I was expecting the market to turn, I really messed up because I didn't have the stop set. No matter, it won’t happen again.

The only way to play this game is with planning and discipline and by making my positions and thinking public, I’m hoping to shame myself into introducing some. I also hoping for feedback and questions from readers.

The future for all commodities and metals, in particular Gold, Silver and Uranium is very bright and my combining the best that fundamental and technical analysis have to offer a disciplined investor must succeed. The markets, reflecting as they do the nexus of geopolitics, economics, technological change sit at an important juncture.

I look forward to reporting on the ride…


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## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> BHP $25.99 now all ord just hangin on




and back up again


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## justjohn (9 June 2006)

ASX up 29 points and climbing to 4907


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

> $25 looks like a nice entry for BHP




  :nono:    Never got there.     

I paid $26.60 - I'm happy with that!   

Again, I want these to hold for a very long time, it is such a great company.


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## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

way things are going ATM you may just end up above $26.60  

in the black ATM


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## Ageo (9 June 2006)

justjohn said:
			
		

> ASX up 29 points and climbing to 4907




yep ride that baby!


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

Well I'm up today 0.9% overall.

BHP and RIO have come back to higher than what I bought them at today..

All is good!       I can relax this long weekend!

That's the end of the correction folks,  from now on the stock market will only go upwards forever more!!  

Have a good long weekend dudes!

Realist.


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## Sean K (9 June 2006)

I got in at $26.50 but I'm still expecting short term weakness. We could still see $25 again or God forbid $24! Great opportunity for long term investors who don't subscribe the sky falling down theory. IMO!


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## Realist (9 June 2006)

> I got in at $26.50 but I'm still expecting short term weakness. We could still see $25 again or God forbid $24!




Good work.

This time next year we'll be rolling in money.   

Hey if it goes to $25 we could have made another 6% sure. It didn;t get there today though, so it may not get there again - ever.

It was $32 a few weeks ago, we're getting a 20% discount as it is.


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## Ageo (9 June 2006)

materials sector is rushing up like a mad bull.

Looks like BHP will be fine for today but i dont think the bears have finished as yet.


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## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

justjohn said:
			
		

> ASX up 29 points and climbing to 4907




ASX making a run for it since that post, up 46.7 ATM


----------



## BlackTie (9 June 2006)

I'm still holding long for a few stocks. I "HOPE" the market will go up next week.   

When BHP breaks $26 I want to jump in and buy.  But my gut feeling telling me today is more like a dead cat bounce.  I think the market will not settle till the US rate movement is announced.  :swear:


----------



## mit (9 June 2006)

Haven't seen the market move up like that for awhile (as opposed to down). Anything on the news wires?

MIT


----------



## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

BlackTie said:
			
		

> But my gut feeling telling me today is more like a dead cat bounce.



ditto.


----------



## Ageo (9 June 2006)

mit said:
			
		

> Haven't seen the market move up like that for awhile (as opposed to down). Anything on the news wires?
> 
> MIT




Long weekend and people need money to spend?

So the aussie government thought it might manipulate the price so people can get excited, make money and blow it over the weekend?

hehe nice theory eh


----------



## professor_frink (9 June 2006)

Don't worry folks my trading partner is very bullish on the market and doing alot of buying. Hope you are all in coz it's gunna rocket up soon


----------



## Realist (9 June 2006)

Hmm, it is dipping slightly.

3 minutes to go.


----------



## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

yeh, had a bit of a dip. be very interesting on tuesday


----------



## Realist (9 June 2006)

It will indeed.  We have 2 US trading days in between to give us an indication.


----------



## lewstherin (9 June 2006)

Got some BHP @ 26.55 ...sweet deal I think as far as the long term goes.  I'll top up when/if it breaks 25.50.
Watching the trading on BHP was intense - 12000+ trades for the day is some serious activity...I wonder how much "money" changed hands during the day on BHP alone?


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2006)

Ageo said:
			
		

> Long weekend and people need money to spend?
> 
> So the aussie government thought it might manipulate the price so people can get excited, make money and blow it over the weekend?
> 
> hehe nice theory eh




Being an inveterate conspiricy theorist, I was thinking along the same lines myself


----------



## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> It will indeed.  We have 2 US trading days in between to give us an indication.



pitty is you cant do much with the indication :swear: have to work out a way to turn back time


----------



## tech/a (9 June 2006)

Think we could have seen the last shake out.

Have reached the Elliot wave analysts 4800 area.
Wouldnt expect a "V" bottom.

Strong buying confidence going it W/E.
Should see this continue in Off shore markets O/N.


----------



## Ageo (9 June 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Think we could have seen the last shake out.
> 
> Have reached the Elliot wave analysts 4800 area.
> Wouldnt expect a "V" bottom.
> ...





I hope not, i want the correction to move further down if possible because one it bounces back and the bulls take over its gonna be another long run.

And BHP imo will hit the $33 mark in 6 months (if not much sooner).


----------



## GreatPig (9 June 2006)

Interesting day - market up a fair bit but still heavily down in resources (at least the ones I keep an eye on).

A few of the stocks I watch for investment are back around their longer-term trend lines now, so will be keen to see what the market does next week. Was toying with picking up some LHG today, but caution prevailed . Better wait and see which way it heads next week first.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Think we could have seen the last shake out.
> 
> Have reached the Elliot wave analysts 4800 area.
> Wouldnt expect a "V" bottom.
> ...




One thing I have come to rely on trading the US is that at some stage, the US Cavalry WILL show up. The PPT is real, and they are active.

They turned up last night and all the numpties climb aboard and go long when they do (including your truly  )

This is why I don't believe a "crash" will ever happen, (unless "they" run out of money... but "they" control the printing press ) but rather, favour a '70's style bear sooner or later. (I'll be right someday Dammit!!!)

I've had some bear fun for a few weeks, but agree with Tech, further upside tonight and further into the short term. FWIW

Medium term, I think basically range bound, BWTFDIK, just a guess for the fun of it.

Cheers


----------



## nizar (9 June 2006)

Ageo said:
			
		

> I hope not, i want the correction to move further down if possible because one it bounces back and the bulls take over its gonna be another long run.
> 
> And BHP imo will hit the $33 mark in 6 months (if not much sooner).




dont be such a bear ageo

BHP will be in the mid-30s WAY BEFORE THAT, probably when they release results in late August

every 1c in copper movement is $30million to their bottom line
totally unhedged
last year average was $1.85usd/lb... this year more than $2.85usd/lb the average... their results will suprise even the most bullish of analysts...


----------



## nizar (9 June 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> One thing I have come to rely on trading the US is that at some stage, the US Cavalry WILL show up. The PPT is real, and they are active.
> 
> They turned up last night and all the numpties climb aboard and go long when they do (including your truly  )
> 
> ...




helicopter ben opening up his mouth again to give some speech in the US overnite

even if he doesnt speak markets will go down LOL


----------



## bullmarket (9 June 2006)

my crystall ball, tea leaves, rabbit foot and gut seem to think the Dow Jones will be down tonight.

cheers

bullmarket


----------



## justjohn (9 June 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Interesting day - market up a fair bit but still heavily down in resources (at least the ones I keep an eye on).
> 
> A few of the stocks I watch for investment are back around their longer-term trend lines now, so will be keen to see what the market does next week. Was toying with picking up some LHG today, but caution prevailed . Better wait and see which way it heads next week first.
> 
> ...



GP  :iagree: I was looking at LHG and very tempted at low$2.60s also OXR at $2.54-55 but not to confident at present with market to buy, rather hold and watch what unfolds in the coming weeks


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2006)

It must be time for another cartoon


----------



## The Mint Man (9 June 2006)

> I was looking at LHG and very tempted at low$2.60s



yeh I was watching them today when they were around 7.5% or so down... $2.60 is a long way from a couple of months ago when ther were at a high of $3.65  
once this correction is over it will be interesting, possibly a good buy there.


----------



## professor_frink (9 June 2006)

nice one wayne!

Disclaimer- the following picture is in no way factual. Mr Bernanke doesn't literally cause train wrecks. Only financial ones


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> nice one wayne!
> 
> Disclaimer- the following picture is in no way factual. Mr Bernanke doesn't literally cause train wrecks. Only financial ones




WOW Professor! Not withstanding the obvious accuracy of the equation contained therein, what an amazing photograph!


----------



## professor_frink (9 June 2006)

yeah it's an interesting one! no idea where it came from. And I only say interesting because it looks like a freight train- hopefully there was no one inside that.


----------



## Jay-684 (9 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> You are 21.  How did you get $97K to invest?
> 
> I wish I had that much money at 21.  Actually I wish I had that now.




Been investing since I was 15-16. ALso inherited 400 WMC shares ($2 at the time I think, so only $400) when I was born, but besides that most of it has come through DRP's and the continuing growth in the companies I have been lucky enough to choose to invest in.

Funny thing is over the last 3 years any idiot could have made money (including me)


----------



## Ageo (9 June 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> dont be such a bear ageo
> 
> BHP will be in the mid-30s WAY BEFORE THAT, probably when they release results in late August
> 
> ...




Nizar whos calling me a bear. Lets put it this way, if your right then i will shout you a beer! because i will be 1 happy man. I was saying 6 months to be ultra conservative.


----------



## MichaelD (9 June 2006)

My system doesn't care which way the market is facing, but the signs are all there;

1. The whole world is running around saying the sky is falling and the end of the world is nigh.
2. Fear and pain are the dominant emotions.
3. The ASX closed strongly up in the last hour despite the Monday public holiday - the smart money is betting LONG.

Conclusion: The bear party is over. The last of the fear is selling to the smart money.


----------



## GreatPig (9 June 2006)

Well Daryl Guppy still seems very bearish in tonight's newsletter, with comments like "a new downtrend is developing" and "the bear remains strong".

He only sees weak support at 4800 (for the XJO).

Cheers,
GP


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> My system doesn't care which way the market is facing, but the signs are all there;
> 
> 1. The whole world is running around saying the sky is falling and the end of the world is nigh.
> 2. Fear and pain are the dominant emotions.
> ...




That could be true, and certainly somebody is punting long in a big way. But it may or may not be smart money. It could be freshly printed money, who knows?

But as far as taking a contrarian, this is the bottom, everybody is panicing, this is a capitulation bottom, view... I think it's way too early. 

This particular bear is only a baby... a teddy bear. If that was the bottom, then this bear was hardly serious, just a rehearsal.

My $0.02 only. FWIW BWTFDIK


----------



## MichaelD (9 June 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> who knows?



Precisely. That's the joy of prediction. You can be wrong 50% of the time and people will only remember the other 50%. It's even more fortunate that you can be wrong 50% of the time and still be profitable.

Still, I can see how bears can have much more fun more quickly.


----------



## MichaelD (9 June 2006)

Just as an addendum to my previous comment;

I think the bears are now getting greedy, hence my contrarian view. Perhaps the closing ASX surge was all the smart bears closing their short positions for the long weekend. I note the FTSE is rebounding strongly, which I didn't know before my last post.

(and to cover my bases...indeed perhaps it could be another dead cat bounce on the way down to further doom.)

Oh well, I'm long with wide stops.


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Just as an addendum to my previous comment;
> 
> I think the bears are now getting greedy, hence my contrarian view. Perhaps the closing ASX surge was all the smart bears closing their short positions for the long weekend. I note the FTSE is rebounding strongly, which I didn't know before my last post.
> 
> ...




Bears greedy? hahah We've had to feed at the bulls trogh for so long, how can you blame us!  

But for the record, I am predominatly long ATM. Smart money, dumb money, or freshly printed PPT money, It's flowing into the market ATM. No point standing in front of freight trains, hey.


----------



## sam76 (9 June 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> .My $0.02 only. FWIW BWTFDIK




For what it's worth...???

then I'm lost.  please help Wayne..


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2006)

sam76 said:
			
		

> For what it's worth...???
> 
> then I'm lost.  please help Wayne..




But What The @#%$ Do I Know


----------



## MichaelD (10 June 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> freshly printed PPT money



I have to admit to being unfamilar with the abbreviation/implication. Sounds like a nice juicy conspiracy. Please elaborate.


----------



## professor_frink (10 June 2006)

plunge protection team. Search for it in these here forums- you'll find a link to some more info


----------



## wayneL (10 June 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> I have to admit to being unfamilar with the abbreviation/implication. Sounds like a nice juicy conspiracy. Please elaborate.




here is an explanation  Micheal http://www.eldoradogold.net/cornered_rats_030326.html

It seems to be an evening for conspiricy theories :


----------



## MichaelD (10 June 2006)

Thanks Frink and Wayne. Bears DO have more fun.


----------



## Realist (10 June 2006)

> the smart money is betting LONG.




Well I am betting long (and I hope I'm the smart money), and I think companies like RIO and BHP are ripe for the picking at the moment.

$73 and $26 respectively - that is a bargain!!

Let's review this in 1 years time when I've collected my 7% dividend and see what their price is then?

If I'm down below inflation on both of those after 1 year I'm a monkeys uncle.


----------



## wayneL (10 June 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Bears DO have more fun.




Yes we do.   

Looks like the rally has fizzled and I've shorted a crapper full of WTFOTM (2 sigma) calls on the SP500 to expire in 6 days... and that was before the 6 point dump into the close. 

Hopefully option payday no 3 this expiry for me next week. A wonderful month for this little brown bear.


----------



## Porper (10 June 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Yes we do.
> 
> Looks like the rally has fizzled and I've shorted a crapper full of WTFOTM (2 sigma) calls on the SP500 to expire in 6 days... and that was before the 6 point dump into the close.
> 
> Hopefully option payday no 3 this expiry for me next week. A wonderful month for this little brown bear.




I'm glad somebody is making money being a bear.I've only been one for about 2 weeks and have lost 5 trades in a row !!

I thought being a bear was fun Wayne.I had more fun watching my longs go down the pan 

I've just added up and from my peak a few weeks ago I have lost 25% up to yesterday.So I am now in profit only by 15% and going down quicker than Monica Lewinsky and Bii Clinton.

I need a shrink,now.  :screwy:


----------



## justjohn (10 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Well I am betting long (and I hope I'm the smart money), and I think companies like RIO and BHP are ripe for the picking at the moment.
> 
> $73 and $26 respectively - that is a bargain!!
> 
> ...



REALIST youre not related to the chicken are you


----------



## professor_frink (10 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Well I am betting long (and I hope I'm the smart money), and I think companies like RIO and BHP are ripe for the picking at the moment.
> 
> $73 and $26 respectively - that is a bargain!!
> 
> ...





Your gunna have to educate a trader about investing here realist- How are you going to collect a 7% dividend investing in bhp and rio? I thought the yield on those 2 was only 1-2%


----------



## nizar (10 June 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Your gunna have to educate a trader about investing here realist- How are you going to collect a 7% dividend investing in bhp and rio? I thought the yield on those 2 was only 1-2%




Maybe hes hoping for a capital return or a special divvy


----------



## wayneL (10 June 2006)

Porper said:
			
		

> I'm glad somebody is making money being a bear.I've only been one for about 2 weeks and have lost 5 trades in a row !!
> 
> I thought being a bear was fun Wayne.I had more fun watching my longs go down the pan
> 
> ...




Porper,

It's not as though you've had much practice in the Oz market up till now. It's a bit different being a bear.

If I could indulge in some nebulous metaphore, Bulls charge, Bears swipe and bite. Bulls are the regular infantry. Bears are Partisans. We have to sneak in at night, blow up a few bridges, run amok briefly, steal a few of the bulls supplies and get the hell out of there, FAST, Before they realise whats going on and they charge us.

Then during the day we behave like bulls so no one notices.. LOL


----------



## professor_frink (10 June 2006)

well said wayne! Guerrilla warfare is the name of the game. I've had 2 swipes at this most recent "cub" of a market with pretty good success. 

The second half of 2002 is the only bearish kinda market I've ever traded, it seems to be enough to leave me in good stead for corrections like this, but if it gets really nasty, then I think I'll struggle to! 

 Keep at it porper, I hope your next bearish trade is a successful one!


----------



## wayneL (10 June 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Keep at it porper, I hope your next bearish trade is a successful one!




Yes ditto that


----------



## suhm (10 June 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Your gunna have to educate a trader about investing here realist- How are you going to collect a 7% dividend investing in bhp and rio? I thought the yield on those 2 was only 1-2%




well if the yield stays around 2% after the sp doubles in that period and you count grossed up yields its gettin to around 7% for dividends on equity invested   . But if that happened i'd be a lot happier about the doubling of the sp than the yield  :


----------



## MichaelD (10 June 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Bulls are the regular infantry. Bears are Partisans. We have to sneak in at night, blow up a few bridges, run amok briefly, steal a few of the bulls supplies and get the hell out of there, FAST, Before they realise whats going on and they charge us.



An excellent metaphor.

Porper, I can empathise. I have tried a few short trades unsuccessfully in the past, but have chalked up these losing trades as the cost of education. It is clear to me now from more extensive testing that the same techniques I use when going long will not work in reverse. The common theme of these trades were that they did indeed mostly move into paper profit, but the exit technique (trailing short stop) was too sluggish to be profitable.

It took me about 6 months to figure out how to profitably trade a bull market consistently, so I expect it will take me at least that long to figure out how to short consistently (just in time for the next bull run, eh Wayne?).

Ah well, at least I have learned the most important lesson of all - how to preserve my capital so I can keep playing the game until I figure it out.


----------



## hypnotic (10 June 2006)

Too much for my liking i am down 14%

But looks like there will be a little turning point here.. i am hoping for the best.

the market will be very interesting next week. 

 

Hypnotic


----------



## pacer (12 June 2006)

I actualy made on shorting 1500 Rio last friday yippeeeeeeee, bought back in last hour on friday as the worm turned.....perfect timing huh ... 1 weeks profit= 1 months holiday in Thailand.....Might take my laptop and have another gamble.... errrr........ well reasearched short term investment.

My bet is for a possible small gain over the next few days then another fall.....the bears are just waking up after such a long hybernation.

Good luck fellas.


----------



## swingstar (12 June 2006)

I've only been short on AMC options the last couple of weeks. They dropped about 5% in that time, then back up 5% on Friday. 

I didn't close 

To answer the question, I only lost what could have been


----------



## Porper (12 June 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Ah well, at least I have learned the most important lesson of all - how to preserve my capital so I can keep playing the game until I figure it out.




A very good point Michael, that is the name of the game.Preserve capital at all cost.

I wish I new 3 weeks ago what I know now, I would be about $10,000 better off.

After a loss, move your risk down 1%, do this twice, if you lose again, move down another 0.5%, do this for 4 trades.If you lose again, give up for a few weeks as you will get severely stressed (like I did last week) 

I should just add that this little system is part of Nick Radge's course " Building a profitable trading plan using technical analysis".I hope he doesn't mind me sharing this small part on here.Excellent course, and yes I am plugging it because it is worth plugging.


----------



## MichaelD (12 June 2006)

Porper said:
			
		

> After a loss, move your risk down 1%, do this twice, if you lose again, move down another 0.5%, do this for 4 trades.If you lose again, give up for a few weeks as you will get severely stressed (like I did last week)



This makes very good sense, since the conditions in the underlying market being traded with a mechanical trend system when stop losses start getting hit as losses (as opposed to closing at a profit) are likely to be adverse to the system (such as the stockmarket over the last few weeks after stop losses got hit).

Basically this is further limiting your risk exposure in times when your system is starting to go into drawdown. An excellent proposition.


----------



## dennisll (12 June 2006)

My LT portfolio is down .5% from 1 January, but it is down about 12% from the highs hit when the index topped.  The recent bearish mood has allowed me to top up on some of my holdings (ex ABS and SLM).  

I am preparing for the XAO to return to 4500 then perhaps 4200.  If this does happen, there will be lots of opportunities around.  I am keeping close watch on stocks I have long wanted to buy (ex SHL, RHC, WDC, ASX, PPT) and if/when the market falls further I will be in with both hands .

Cheers,

Dennis


----------



## mit (12 June 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> This makes very good sense, since the conditions in the underlying market being traded with a mechanical trend system when stop losses start getting hit as losses (as opposed to closing at a profit) are likely to be adverse to the system (such as the stockmarket over the last few weeks after stop losses got hit).
> 
> Basically this is further limiting your risk exposure in times when your system is starting to go into drawdown. An excellent proposition.




Very dependant on the system. I've tried putting filters into the mechanical system I traded and the best result still seems to be to trade through any correction (I've backtested back to 1994). Looking back over the last month or so I can see why (at least for what I trade).

I got hit pretty hard (In my case it was the banks) at the start of the correction and it happened pretty quickly. I still had buy signals and bought into new stocks through May and June and these are going up in spite of the market and have recovered a fair amount of May's losses. After a small correction in January (for everything else except commodity stocks). I lowered my risk and slowly raised it as the My equity recovered.

When I backtested over the same period I found that if I kept a constant risk I would have been a lot further ahead at the moment.

MIT


----------



## Realist (13 June 2006)

Holly Cow, BHP and RIO are plummeting this morning    

25.79 and 71.49.

Hmm patience.


----------



## justjohn (13 June 2006)

60+Point down the ASX has lost that loving feeling :   ah well we won the soccer


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Holly Cow, BHP and RIO are plummeting this morning
> 
> 25.79 and 71.49.
> 
> Hmm patience.




that 25 buy in is looking good for some.... its been a wild ride lately


----------



## Sean K (13 June 2006)

Yes, patience Realist. 

0943  [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 expected down about 40 points in line with futures as local market resumes trade after long weekend to find base metals and U.S. stocks sharply lower, amid inflation fears before U.S. PPI/CPI data Tuesday/Wednesday. BHP (BHP.AU) tipped to find buyers near ADR close at A$25.79, after it was well supported by local funds below A$26.00 Friday. Trader says, "I think people will be a bit nervous today, but the stock will be nearly 20% of its May 11 highs and it had this powerful rally from around A$24.00. With this extreme volatility in resources, people have tended to hug the index, but for those with a longer-term view, then I think they get tempted as we sell off this next dollar or two. *No one's going to be able to pick the bottom. But A$24-A$26 is certainly an attractive level to get back on the bid."* Index last 4966.0. (DWR)


----------



## bullmarket (13 June 2006)

bullmarket said:
			
		

> my crystall ball, tea leaves, rabbit foot and gut seem to think the Dow Jones will be down tonight.
> 
> cheers
> 
> bullmarket




Consulting my crystal ball, tea leaves, rabbit foot and gut after last Friday above they tell me XJO is still most likely to settle in the 4800-5000 range as they said a few weeks back   

And good to see the LPT sector (XPJ) at near all time highs 

cheers

bullmarket


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

still heading south, almost 70 points


----------



## lewstherin (13 June 2006)

Blagh...I'm down around 3k on total investment of 20k.
Hanging in for the correction to end.

Beginning to wonder whether the correction is actually the onset of recession?
Was reading some interesting customs stats on China's imports over the last quarter (on kitco somewhere).  Nickel, zinc and other base metals have shown a 20-25% drop in volumes imported...that cannot be good?


----------



## bullmarket (13 June 2006)

lewstherin said:
			
		

> Blagh...I'm down around 3k on total investment of 20k.
> Hanging in for the correction to end.
> 
> Beginning to wonder whether the correction is actually the onset of recession?
> Was reading some interesting customs stats on China's imports over the last quarter (on kitco somewhere).  Nickel, zinc and other base metals have shown a 20-25% drop in volumes imported...that cannot be good?




oh dear lewstherin   

There were a few in here a few weeks back spruiking how there was no correction coming because the global demand for resources would keep the markets rising indefinitely using rubbish like increasing world population to keep demand well above supply...etc etc......well that was never going to happen as a few pointed out in here and so I hope you didn't get caught up in the hype.

I don't believe we're likely to see a recession (technically defined as 2 successive quarters of negative GDP) but I suppose it is still a possibility if interest rates, inflation rates and oil prices keep rising.

cheers

bullmarket


----------



## suhm (13 June 2006)

wow look at that kitty cat bounce away. Oh well look at the bright side the sea of red just means you'll have more options for shares to buy in the future.


----------



## swingstar (13 June 2006)

Thanks to AMC pulling back today I'm up a decent amount for June. AMC bounced off my EMA today and overall still looks bearish, so going to let my puts run. 

Otherwise I'm staying out of the market until there's some clear direction.


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

just on my comsec....
still sliding down south past the 105 point mark and dosnt seem like stoping there  

I have 52 stocks in my watchlist which I separate into different groups being banks, energy, industrial, materials, media, property and telco's. so its a good spread.... but all Im seeing is red  
Anyway out of that 52 I currently have... <EDIT on my watch list, I dont own themEDIT>  
42 in the red, 3 in green and the rest clinging onto black  

hmmm not good if you bought in on friday or any day last week for that matter. Unless of course you short


----------



## Sean K (13 June 2006)

I haven't been game to look today.

I hold about 50 stocks and I saw one green arrow at 10.30am.


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

hehe... I wouldnt suggest you do. the all ords have sliped further then my last post


----------



## Realist (13 June 2006)

Down 2.3% today, this is getting nasty!    

All ords 4814.3      

It was 5318 from memory- down 10%.


----------



## Sean K (13 June 2006)

What's keeping me slightly comfortable it the knowledge that it will all eventually go back up again, even if it takes 5 years.


----------



## justjohn (13 June 2006)

what a smashup but im still holding 6 green + 9 red, green being(DJS,EBB,GPG,MAP,TRS & WOW WHICH IS UP 1.4%) so far but still down today almost 3k thanx to BHP and down close to 20k over the last 2-3 weeks oh well :dunno:


----------



## jet-r (13 June 2006)

I got RIO BHP and MBL on board today. and very happy with the price


----------



## Realist (13 June 2006)

Well Done Jet.

I'd by more if I wasn't skint.

MBL - I must look at that - don't have it yet. 

All depends on the Dow tonite....


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

correct realist,
looking back on charts was 5318 with a high of 5352 the previous day.

ASX 200 is showing 116 down with all ords 110 down


----------



## justjohn (13 June 2006)

BHP $25.35 "COME & GET IT"


----------



## justjohn (13 June 2006)

justjohn said:
			
		

> what a smashup but im still holding 6 green + 9 red, green being(DJS,EBB,GPG,MAP,TRS & WOW WHICH IS UP 1.4%) so far but still down today almost 3k thanx to BHP and down close to 20k over the last 2-3 weeks oh well :dunno:



MAKE THAT 2 GREEN & 21.5K


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

justjohn said:
			
		

> MAKE THAT 2 GREEN & 21.5K




ouch!! ahh well, I know your attitude is that your in for the long haul and your only giving back profit anyway justjohn. you will make it back!
plus if others here knew what you bought BHP for they would fall over, stuff this $26 mark


----------



## Realist (13 June 2006)

> what a smashup but im still holding 6 green + 9 red




You mean stocks can have green prices as well!!      




Wow, I wonder if I'll ever see that with my lot.


----------



## serp (13 June 2006)

jet-r said:
			
		

> I got RIO BHP and MBL on board today. and very happy with the price




Think you might have been happier if you waited to buy it at the end of this week


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> You mean stocks can have green prices as well!!
> Wow, I wonder if I'll ever see that with my lot.



LOL  

The final damage on ASX website was:-
ASX 200 -127.1
All ords -119.6
thats 2.43% down


----------



## Jay-684 (13 June 2006)

Been a schocking last few days!   

Here's an idea.....

the purple line represents my goal of 15% for the year..... thought I was cruising along 1 month ago!


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

yeh, thats the reality of it all   definitly bring you back on track with both feet on the ground.


----------



## suhm (13 June 2006)

your still up 10% in half a year which isn't all that bad and its above your goal, sucks to have lost money and I've lost plenty these last few weeks down about 1.5% just today but greed breeds stupidity, plan for your goal whatever you get above of that is a bonus.

P.S. 15% a year is a very good return and means you'll double your money about every 5 years. If you could do that for the next thrity years your stack would be worth over 7 million without putting any new capital in. Now wouldn't we all like that to happen


----------



## Jay-684 (13 June 2006)

suhm said:
			
		

> your still up 10% in half a year which isn't all that bad and its above your goal, sucks to have lost money and I've lost plenty these last few weeks down about 1.5% just today but greed breeds stupidity, plan for your goal whatever you get above of that is a bonus.
> 
> P.S. 15% a year is a very good return and means you'll double your money about every 5 years. If you could do that for the next thrity years your stack would be worth over 7 million without putting any new capital in. Now wouldn't we all like that to happen




very true... its just depressing seeing it disappear! I could have bought a small car!


----------



## hypnotic (13 June 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> very true... its just depressing seeing it disappear! I could have bought a small car!




Sure is depressing, seeing some of your hard earnt money slowly eroding away... 

i am now 18% down...... But hopefully it'll be better in the long term.. The 

market looking like a pretty nasty correction.    

Hypnotic


----------



## Jay-684 (13 June 2006)

If the market is still around the 4800 mark (and a little more stable) then I'll buy a heap of BHP & possibly ZFX.

besides that I'm keeping what I have in cash right now and just holding on with the rest of it!


----------



## serp (13 June 2006)

So who thinks it will bounce back tomorrow? The news in other markets at the moment don't point to a recovery :/


----------



## wayneL (13 June 2006)

Well wadayaknow!

Today was the biggest one day fall since 911.

http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19455736-462,00.html


----------



## Realist (13 June 2006)

> Today was the biggest one day fall since 911.




The amazing thing to me is the resource stocks without a resource or a profit are still not getting hammered. Surely that is to come?

Why have the spec stocks not been smashed more yet?

As for the Bluechips - CBA, Wollies, Fosters, Westfield, IAG, BHP - they are making large profits. The yield alone is worth holding them over cash surely?


----------



## pacer (13 June 2006)

Just another winning day for me....sold 1500 RIO (CFDs)at 9.00 and bought back at close........Having a blast......realy gotta go on holiday with profits but am loving this volitility too much!

Where are all the other day traders.....not posting....must be on holiday already, thinking it was all over.

The reason  the smaller resource stocks arent plummeting could be that mums and dad bluechip investors have had enough and are selling off, shorters (like me) are bringing it all down even more, and we prefer the top 20 to play with.

I dont use any technical analysis except for gut feeling and a rudimentary knowledge of what has happened over the years and happens during the day, and surf the net for information on the general state of things.....how hard is that? and I,m up 500% in the last 5 weeks.

I recon BHP will hit $23 before a recovery hits, and RIO, $65 

Good luck fellas.


----------



## serp (13 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> The amazing thing to me is the resource stocks without a resource or a profit are still not getting hammered. Surely that is to come?
> 
> Why have the spec stocks not been smashed more yet?




Bluechips are always the first to be way overvalued during a bull rush so I guess they are the first to get smashed.


----------



## justjohn (13 June 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Well wadayaknow!
> 
> Today was the biggest one day fall since 911.
> 
> http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19455736-462,00.html



WAYNE  Todays the day the teddy BEARS had there picnic :22_yikes:


----------



## Realist (13 June 2006)

> Bluechips are always the first to be way overvalued during a bull rush so I guess they are the first to get smashed.




So you are telling me BHP, Westfield, RIO and IAG are overvalued?

Yet MTN, BMN, EVE, FDL, PDN aren't?

Gimme a break, the bluechips are not overvalued. They are making huge profits.

The specs aren't making money they are spending money.

Over the short term the sharemarket is a popularity game, over the longterm it is a weighing game.

Companies that do not make profits aren't worth anything.


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

well the US market opens in a couple of minutes. lets see what happens


----------



## GreatPig (13 June 2006)

FTSE is down over 2% at the moment.

GP


----------



## ctp6360 (13 June 2006)

I don't mind the look of that start, it *had* to go down, but 23 points isn't too bad considering all the negative sentiment and the falling international markets / base metals.

The last few weeks though, it starts like this, heads slowly up or down, then just DIES at the end when I go to bed, maybe if I stay up all night it will go up!


----------



## clowboy (13 June 2006)

ctp6360,

That is classic, i'll let you give it a whirl first though so as not to lose any of my beuaty sleep.  If it works out for you though let me know, I may quit my day job and stay up all night with you then sleep during the day.  Somehow though I get the feeling it would work for a little while, I'd fall into a comfort zone and wake up one night to see all my stocks delisted.


----------



## The Mint Man (13 June 2006)

nasdaq and dow started in red but are now up a little on my screen... for how long :dunno: mabey a day mabey an hour. no clear direction lately.


----------



## ctp6360 (13 June 2006)

I'll tell you this much guys I'm going to get myself a Red Bull and vodka, if my consciousness is boosting this market to +38.26 then sleep is the least of my worries!

Can anyone provide any explaination for the initial spike in the US markets, as much as I would like this to be the bounce we've been waiting for, my gut tells me that even if today finishes positive, this isn't the end of the pain!


----------



## justjohn (14 June 2006)

REALIST the way things are going you should re-name the thread to how much have you lost in the last 3 weeks :swear: It looks like its happening again today thank god i wont be near a screen for most of the day ,good luck everyone :bekloppt:


----------



## clowboy (14 June 2006)

ctp6360

You fell asleep didn't you?

Damnit


----------



## swingstar (14 June 2006)

Should be another decent drop today


----------



## pacer (14 June 2006)

I'm still predicting bottoms of ...Rio $65 and BHP $23....

Everyone sing along now.......you gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to run away, know when to fight ..............

COME ON, LOUDER

Dont count your money till the dealing's done......YEEEEEEHHHHHHAAAAA!


----------



## lewstherin (14 June 2006)

Well today was the day.  
BHP dropped through $25, gold left $600 way behind, and that was my signal to have a fire sale.  
Pulled out 10k at a loss of 3k  :behead: 

Still have my BHP and AED holdings, and intend to keep them for the long term.  If oil goes under $60, I'll have to rethink AED.

Total loss - 3k realised, 1k on paper.

Although I've taken a hammering (and deservedly so in light of some poor decisions), I'm not quitting stocks just yet   

One major thing I've learned is not to be too UNemotional!  I backed myself and bought based on what I believed to be good fundamentals.  I also dismissed much of the selling thats gone on in the past few weeks as irrational and without fundamental grounding.  
Hmm mistake!
I guess I need to realise that if a ton of people decide that its now time to bail a market, no amount of fundamentals will keep them in!  
Best in such circumstances to bet with the herd than against them methinks.

Time to go learn about shorting...even if I don't use it now, it will be useful someday in the future.


----------



## Realist (14 June 2006)

The worm has turned.

The bears can go back in hibernation for another year or so.


----------



## dennisll (14 June 2006)

lewstherin said:
			
		

> I'm not quitting stocks just yet




Good on you, mate!  Keep on keeping on! 

Cheers,

Dennis


----------



## pacer (14 June 2006)

Got this in an email from my mate.....


Dear readers,
           GGGGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

I'll be Back !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lotsa Luck GGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Signed ....THE BEAR


----------



## lewstherin (14 June 2006)

lol.  I expect the bears will be back too.   All it needs is a few Fed officials to mumble something for the markets to turn red it seems...well at the moment at least


----------



## mit (14 June 2006)

lewstherin said:
			
		

> lol.  I expect the bears will be back too.   All it needs is a few Fed officials to mumble something for the markets to turn red it seems...well at the moment at least




Agreed. Last Friday and today make me think that the Aussie Market wants to recover (at least temporarily) but we seem to be linked to what's happening in America.


----------



## dragonball (14 June 2006)

1st time i see the index is green, hoping this is a good sign...asian market seems to be in the green zone as well... no more red pls


----------



## lewstherin (14 June 2006)

lol...everyone on this forum should do the opposite of what I do.  I liquidated most holdings around 10:30...just before the intra-day bounce started 
I just have to laugh about it to stop from crying   
Of all the days the ASX decides NOT to follow the Dow...
I really hope I'm vindicated at some stage...


----------



## Realist (14 June 2006)

BHP and RIO climbing big time today, more than what I bought them for last week.

Some were shorting them...     

I've been vindicated!!      

(for now    )


----------



## tech/a (14 June 2006)

So far in this down move My portfolio's traded on margin are $65K lower than a month ago. But as of Friday over 90K higher than this time last year.

Short term discretionary trades -$6,300 and buying some I'm still in.
with one SRK trading suspended.$15k in that.

Cost of doing business.


----------



## Kipp (14 June 2006)

Up $5K for May, and $2K for June...

yeah right   ... from the sweet days of early May I've been in hell with BMO, MCR, and ZFX... but sold half of them when they started falling so not that bad off.  Made the classic newbie move of selling my few stocks in the green today (MAP and MCR), in case the All Ords shave a few hundred more in June.

But stuff it, although this period has been stressful for all us in the market (pros and newbies alike) at least it has gone someway to removing the money hungry craze/ASX obsession that I was living a few months ago.  So hopefully it means I will turn my mind on to other things.

But I wish I was in tech/a position of having a longer trading history.  A 10% loss in May is nothing if you've ridden the bull in 04 and 05.


----------



## Realist (14 June 2006)

> But I wish I was in tech/a position of having a longer trading history. A 10% loss in May is nothing if you've ridden the bull in 04 and 05.




Very true.

It is like buying a house at the very peak of the market, and ending up with negative equity.

Buyer beware...


----------



## Sean K (14 June 2006)

In the end the long term players will survive as long as you've diversified and haven't put 100% of your cash on some company yet to make any money. Everyone loses money during certain periods of the market - on paper. The market is still sound and there's cash still to be made. In the long run.


----------



## The Mint Man (14 June 2006)

did anyone see the report on 7 news tonight??....thats right a full report   
They were saying how 100b had been wiped off the market over the past few weeks ect, however they also said that while the market may go down a little further expert analyst (I think they said comsec  ) are suggesting to hold on as the market will pick back up.
Anyone see this? any thoughts?


----------



## tech/a (15 June 2006)

> It is like buying a house at the very peak of the market, and ending up with negative equity.




*Not even remotely like it!*


----------



## Realist (15 June 2006)

> Not even remotely like it!




It is!!

Buying BHP at $32 is like paying too much for a house.  

Wait until you get a better deal..


Your thoughts?


----------



## ducati916 (15 June 2006)

*tech/a* 

Of course it is.

Valuation of a residential property = Rent per room * 52weeks, capitalized, and discounted by the interest rate.

Then taking your investment valuation, you can estimate the *speculative component* [or commonly known in housing as the intangible value] by comparing the investment valuation with the most recently sold house price on your street.

If the price you paid is far above the investment value, then in any market downturn, should you want to sell, or are forced to sell due to financial pressures, you may be *forced* to take a loss.

If you have overpaid, but do not need to sell, then the fluctuation is of no concern, but you will have to allow time to increase capital gains, as you have overpaid in the short term.

This is no different to buying an overvalued share.
The price you paid is not reflected in the earning power of the business.

The difference between the two asset classes is *volatility* 
The volatility in the financial markets is several orders higher than in the *property markets*

This is due in no small part to liquidity & transaction costs.

jog on
d998


----------



## pacer (15 June 2006)

Went for a shower yeserday and ended up taking a bath on the stocks going short....whaaaaaaa mmmuuummmmmyyyyyy.....went long again and made it back.
Today going long but its freaky and not even friday, might take the verry small profit to the track and spend it on a good day out ...tooo many big players are back in....

Will the cat bounce?

Is the bear still hungry?

Who knows ....Who Cares?.....I quit till next week.....


----------



## Realist (15 June 2006)

Pacer, you are a mad man by the sounds of it.

Take it easy dude.     

How much have you lost in June?


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 June 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *tech/a*
> 
> Of course it is.
> 
> Valuation of a residential property = Rent per room * 52weeks, capitalized, and discounted by the interest rate.



Interesting. Could you provide a worked example for, say, a property that rents for $250 per week?


----------



## tech/a (15 June 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> So far in this down move My portfolio's traded on margin are $65K lower than a month ago. But as of Friday over 90K higher than this time last year.
> 
> Short term discretionary trades -$6,300 and buying some I'm still in.
> with one SRK trading suspended.$15k in that.
> ...




Your reference I thought was related to my situation.
If so then---

Didnt buy anything at a peak.
Portfolio peaked and drawdown is relative to correction/downturn.
Selling the portfolio and re buying isnt part of the methodology.
*Buy price for most components of the portfolio are well below the corrected/downturned current value.*

However there is a case worthy of investigation based around Exits relative to equity curve.
Another topic.


----------



## ducati916 (15 June 2006)

*tech/a* 

Sure; let's say the asking price was $200K and an 8% mortgage rate.
The calculation would be $250 * 52 * 100 * 0.08%
$250 * 52 = 13000 * 100 = 1300000 * 0.08% = $104,000.00

The investment value would be $200,000.00 - $104,000.00 = $96,000.00
If we said the mortgage rate was 6.5%;
Then $250 * 52 * 100 * 0.065%

Then $200,000.00 - 84,500.00 = $115,500.00 investment value
Obviously, the lower the interest rate, the higher the investment value at the same rental income

The investment value = the earning power of the business [in this case a residential property] which varies in the same way as does a *share* in respect to *earnings & interest rates*

You can then easily see the *premium* being placed on the *intangible value* The trick, as with a P/E multiple, is not to overpay for the intangible value component, viz. a growth stock.



jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a (15 June 2006)

Smurf asked the question.



> The trick, as with a P/E multiple, is not to overpay for the intangible value component, viz. a growth stock.




As you have shown in your Fundamental trading example.
But we are back to the merry go round of Open Equity losses arent losses unless taken and open equity gains arent gains until taken.

A pointless endless arguement.
Your happy to sit on losses un realised and profit realised and known regardless of the size of the unrealised loss.
Im happy to take known losses and sit on un realised profit regardless of the size of the unrealised profit.


----------



## Bobby (15 June 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Smurf asked the question.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Go Tech.

A manifest of reality    did like your  last sentence.

As for Duc's quasi-scientific dog'ma , seems like a capital desuitory half plan in action with rhetoric rave  : ,.

Your turn Duc .

Bob.


----------



## ducati916 (16 June 2006)

*tech/a & Smurf* 

First off, let me correct my error.



> The investment value would be $200,000.00 - $104,000.00 = $96,000.00
> If we said the mortgage rate was 6.5%;
> Then $250 * 52 * 100 * 0.065%
> 
> ...




The *investment value = the calculated figure, viz. $104,000.00 & $84,500.00*  Therefore the *Intangible value = $200K - $104K = $96K* 

Sorry about that, should never post late at night under the influence.


No, just that as an asset class, as *Realist* posted, property can be *overvalued on the basis of very high intangible values* 

It is this high valuation within the intangible values that equate to the *speculative* excess valuations within share values at the top of Bull markets, or Bull runs in individual issues.

Intangible value especially in property will have a value.
The trick is to assign a rational value to it.
The short cut method, which is the same method as comparing dividend yields is to divide the rental stream by the purchase price, and calculate the rental yield

Therefore;

$13,000/$200,000 = 6.5% yield
If the investor requires a 10% yield, then this house is overpriced.
It's fast, but lacks any thought to valuations.
If the investor actually started placing valuations on individual *intangible* elements, for example, *location* you could then break down location into component parts, schools, shops, cul-de-sac, airports, hospitals, etc and assign values to each.

The result would be that you could then more accurately value property across widely diverse regions, and spot bubbles very quickly.

*Peanut* 

Climb back into your shell peanut, it's all above you.

jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a (16 June 2006)

> The result would be that you could then more accurately value property across widely diverse regions, and spot bubbles very quickly.





This is of course only at a point in time.
Yesterdays over valuation could be next months bargain.

Accuracy of valuation at any one point of time being the critical judgement.


----------



## ducati916 (16 June 2006)

*tech/a* 

I think somewhere we agreed that valuations are not static, they vary, or fluctuate. In the stock market, they fluctuate possibly with greater volatility than the property market.

However, *prices paid* for those valuations have far greater volatility than the earnings, or values associated with them, thus you will incur relative undervaluations and overvaluations.

Therefore, if you can value, reasonably accurately the investment value, you can see quite easily the speculative heat in the market, or individual investment.

Returning to property.
If you valued property simply on a yield basis, you would lose out on much valuable information.

By valuing the same hypothetical  property we can illustrate the difference;

Price asked $200K
Rent = $250/week
% Rate 8.3%
Investment value = $107,900.00
Intangible Value = $92,100.00

Required yield 8.3%
@ $200K yield = 6.5%.......therefore overpriced

Therefore, we start to examine via our Intangibles weighting, the value of the intangibles. We look at schools etc.
What is found that the area contains either a high component of intangibles that are not reflected in the rent, thus the rent could be raised, thus increasing the investment value, or, the area contains nothing of value within the intangibles, and the rent seems unduely high, and possibly would need to be lowered to prevent vacancies.

By simply looking at yield, the information contained in the price tells you nothing that is worth knowing.

This is similar to *price* in technical analysis.
You can elucidate that price is higher or lower than in a previous period, but so what..........there is no quality information contained in that knowledge.

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (16 June 2006)

Let's clarify one thing, you can value both houses and shares, and there are times when bthey are overvalued and undervalued.

Obviously you buy when they are undervalued and sell when they are overvalued. 

Simple as that.

I have been vindicated buying BHP and RIO last week - they are rocketing today!!!

If RIO goes over $100 or BHP over $38 I am selling though.


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2006)

But Realist, what if in the next few years the US economy stays solid and doesn't go into recession and thus Chindia continues to grow, possibly beyond expectations? BHP might go to $50 and RIO $125+. It might be good to take some profits along the way and develop and exit strategy but don't limit how much money you can make! Just limit what you can lose! Alternatively, what if the US does crash and Chindia melt down, commodities pull back, and BHP and RIO dive before getting to your price targets?


----------



## The Mint Man (16 June 2006)

who here thinks that this is yet another bounce that we will soon see wiped away?... again!  
I think its wayyy too early to be getting cocky. had 3 weeks down 100b lost and a couple of days up.pfft.


----------



## Realist (16 June 2006)

> But Realist, what if in the next few years the US economy stays solid and doesn't go into recession and thus Chindia continues to grow, possibly beyond expectations? BHP might go to $50 and RIO $125+.





BHP is already a $100 Billion dollar company.  At $38 it would be a $133 Billion dollar company.

The bigger you are the slower you grow!  It is like turning the Queen Mary, the bigger it is the slower it is. 

At $50 a share it is valued at a $175 Billion Dollar company.   

I do not believe it can be worth another $75 Billion more than it is now easily! And if it was, how could it possibly grow 10% a year from there?

What can it do between now and then to add another $75 Billion dollars worth of value?   

It's dividends are low as well.  If they paid 7% as they should I'd maybe keep em. Maybe they will - I am hoping.

I expect (well hope) that BHP is $38 and RIO $100 next June - and if they are I will sell then!


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2006)

How about BHP buying WPL for a start. Then maybe Alcoa. Then Breat Britain. Just the Queen is worth about $175 billion.


----------



## The Mint Man (16 June 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Just the Queen is worth about $175 billion.



who would want a peice (share) of her? :blover:  :nuts:   
 :screwy:


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2006)

She's hot man!   And that Camilla!!! Move aside Chuck!  :1luvu:


----------



## Realist (16 June 2006)

> the Queen is worth about $175 billion.




She's overvalued.

I'd short her!!  

 :casanova:


----------



## eddievanhalen (16 June 2006)

maybe 175 mill ............the Queen ain't worth even close to ONE billion as far as I'm aware.

Ed


----------



## nizar (16 June 2006)

eddievanhalen said:
			
		

> maybe 175 mill ............the Queen ain't worth even close to ONE billion as far as I'm aware.
> 
> Ed





agree

the queen is worth about 700million

(maybe even less now after the correctioN!)

i know coz i remember them making a big deal with that harry potter author had more money "than the queen" when she passed the 800 mark


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2006)

She pays a good dividend though I hear! Fully franked. I mean angloed, um, saxoned I mean. No actually, she's kraut isn't she?


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2006)

Getting back to the topic, I've actually made $15K on paper in the past 2 days. Still $60K down from May 10ish   

Glad I picked up the extra BHP and HDR, although could test lows again in next 3 weeks. Come on July!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Realist (16 June 2006)

Well done Kennas!

I too am glad that I bought BHP and RIO last week.


----------



## ctp6360 (16 June 2006)

Well you were calling those bargain prices on BHP and RIO Realist, so congratulations, lets just hope as things cool off from this new current outpour of irrational emotion that the overall trend remains up!

I got my RIO at 70.95 which is looking good at the moment


----------



## Realist (16 June 2006)

> I got my RIO at 70.95




Ohh a 10% increase already!

Well done!    

Keep holding...


----------



## jet-r (16 June 2006)

Dont you think the market is racing ahead too fast.
I have sold my  BHP, RIO, MBL and OXR today and hoping to re-enter at a better price next week..

time will tell.


----------



## serp (16 June 2006)

I can't believe how strange the Australian market is, everyone talks of a big correction yet over the last 2 days it makes massive gains, unbelievable, the ASX is so volatile and tied to the US and Asian markets it is absurd.


----------



## lewstherin (16 June 2006)

Blue chips like RIO and BHP going through 10+% price volatility in just over a week is sketching me out too.
I wanna see what happens when/if the Fed hikes interest rates at the end of the month...


----------



## Realist (16 June 2006)

> I have sold my BHP, RIO, MBL and OXR today and hoping to re-enter at a better price next week..




 

Traders confuse the hell out of me.

Why not buy around the low of last week, or early this week and just hold them for 1 year ?

How can buying and selling BHP constantly be a better way to do things?

Brokerage, slippage and taxes must kill you.


----------



## laurie (16 June 2006)

The way some people talk here they must not pay CGT   there is no way I'm giving the Goverment 48% of my money unless I'm really need to sell. I tend to keep a stock for at least 12months

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2006)

Yeah Laurie, It's a drama. I'm mostly long term but I tell you tax time is a nightmare. It cost me $600 to have my tax done last year! 

Agree with the above posts about volitility and the see sawing going on. Could see some more big drops over the next 2-3 weeks.

Interest rate increase is factored in I think, so if they don't, or make even a smaller increase, like 10 basis points, then the market will probably love it.


----------



## The Mint Man (16 June 2006)

> Blue chips like RIO and BHP going through 10+% price volatility in just over a week is sketching me out too





> can't believe how strange the Australian market is, everyone talks of a big correction yet over the last 2 days it makes massive gains, unbelievable, the ASX is so volatile and tied to the US and Asian markets it is absurd.





> Dont you think the market is racing ahead too fast




Exactly what I was getting at in post 222, glad to see some people think the same as me  

However I do agree with what realist is saying... for a person investing over the long term BHP was probably a good buy. Sure it could have been bought for $1 less, in realist case I belive (from memory) that would have been a $100 Saving but if it goes back to say $32 anytime during the next year then he has still made 10%. not too shabby.


----------



## The Mint Man (16 June 2006)

well yet another up day on a friday! will we see the US go down again overnight?
Hmmm, Ill take a stab. yes  will the ASX follow? probably :

see ya on monday :goodnight


----------



## Julia (16 June 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yeah Laurie, It's a drama. I'm mostly long term but I tell you tax time is a nightmare. It cost me $600 to have my tax done last year!
> 
> Agree with the above posts about volitility and the see sawing going on. Could see some more big drops over the next 2-3 weeks.
> 
> Interest rate increase is factored in I think, so if they don't, or make even a smaller increase, like 10 basis points, then the market will probably love it.




$600!  Half your luck, kennas.  I have a bill sitting here for last year's tax for $3200!!

Julia


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## cuttlefish (16 June 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> $600!  Half your luck, kennas.  I have a bill sitting here for last year's tax for $3200!!
> 
> Julia




Yeah my accountants got his own inflation rate going - 100% per annum - first year I saw him (about 8 years ago) it was only $150 bucks. He tried to charge me $1800 two years ago but after some discussion he agreed to settle at $1200 (and last year it was about the same so maybe sanity has settled in).


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## Sean K (16 June 2006)

What the!!!! Having tax doesn't cost that much does it? I've had a share portfolio, investment properties etc, for over 10 years. $150 was the most before last years $600! I think I'll do it myself, and wait for a please explain later. You guys must live in the eastern suburbs of Sydney!


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## cuttlefish (16 June 2006)

> You guys must live in the eastern suburbs of Sydney!



nah northern beaches   



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> What the!!!! Having tax doesn't cost that much does it? I've had a share portfolio, investment properties etc, for over 10 years. $150 was the most before last years $600! I think I'll do it myself, and wait for a please explain later.




just wait - betcha it's more next year (trying to get an explanation for this will be impossible). Trying to do it yourself and waiting for a please explain isn't a good idea (I know people this has happened to) so the $600 is probably good insurance.  Plus its a bit of a hassle if you decide you want to switch as well - I've got no complaints about the service I'm getting so will probably just stick with it.


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## Julia (17 June 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> What the!!!! Having tax doesn't cost that much does it? I've had a share portfolio, investment properties etc, for over 10 years. $150 was the most before last years $600! I think I'll do it myself, and wait for a please explain later. You guys must live in the eastern suburbs of Sydney!




Regional Queensland actually, Kennas!  This was one of my arguments to the accountant re the bill - that they weren't paying CBD Sydney or Melbourne rents.  Ineffective argument it seems.  Mine is a self managed super fund with shares, cash and fixed interest only - no property.

I have found a different accountant now.

Julia


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## tech/a (17 June 2006)

I dont begrudge my accountantcy firm its fees.
They save me a fortune,have set me up in a manner which is safe.
Provide sound advice which I have acted on on many occasions with result that have benifited me well beyond the fee.
They are a large firm with large fees ( as percieved by some---My admin officer for one!). Yet they are personable,accessable,efficient,timely and above all inovative.

*There SHOULD be much more to an accountant than TAX issues.*

Perhaps there are some who dont know how best to utilise their accountant.
Take the time to investigate what they can do for you. You maybe suprised at their capabilities.

Take the time to equate your accountant with who you are on a financial level---your goals,wants future ideas and strategies.

*Information quality,out is often relative to the quality of information in!!!*

Its a 2 way street.


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## Julia (17 June 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I dont begrudge my accountantcy firm its fees.
> They save me a fortune,have set me up in a manner which is safe.
> Provide sound advice which I have acted on on many occasions with result that have benifited me well beyond the fee.
> They are a large firm with large fees ( as percieved by some---My admin officer for one!). Yet they are personable,accessable,efficient,timely and above all inovative.
> ...



Tech

Good point for someone in your situation.  However, my financial affairs are very straightforward.  No companies, no investment properties et al.
All this accountant needed to do was use the standard SMSF software to do the tax return from the clearly recorded material I gave her.  I have sought quotes from other accountants since then to do the same thing with the same material and those quotes are for $1200 less.  

It's also reasonable to note that the actual work was not done by the accountant but by one of her employees who is a clerical worker.
The accountant in question doesn't even offer the service of setting up allocated pensions should I want to do that when I reach retirement age.
I don't mind paying when I get good value for money but in this case, I just didn't.

Juia


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## clayton4115 (22 June 2006)

well since 1 may 2006 - when the market commenced its correction i am down 4.30% while the market (ASX all ords) is down 7.06%


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## Realist (22 June 2006)

I'm up nicely now for the year.

CDO rocketed 25% today.    

BHP and RIO and BSL have done me well.


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## clayton4115 (22 June 2006)

yea takeover speculation


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## Realist (22 June 2006)

Should I sell CDO at $4.26 or just keep holding?


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## clayton4115 (22 June 2006)

I would definitely sell, but i am not giving you advice!


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## lesm (22 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I'm up nicely now for the year.
> 
> CDO rocketed 25% today.
> 
> BHP and RIO and BSL have done me well.




Hey Realist,

Are you trading on the ASX or another exchange??

@15.55 AEST
Stock  Bid     Offer   Last  Change   %     Open   High   Low    Volume
CDO   4.250  4.260  4.260  0.460  12.11  4.200  4.300  4.060  2,496,141


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## Realist (22 June 2006)

> Hey Realist,
> 
> Are you trading on the ASX or another exchange??
> 
> ...




Well, they were about $3.40 1.5 days ago.

I've made 25% anyway in 1.5 days. I've owned them for 3 weeks.


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## Porper (22 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Well, they were about $3.40 1.5 days ago.
> 
> I've made 25% anyway in 1.5 days. I've owned them for 3 weeks.




Nice work if you can get it Realist 

If you look at the chart the recent high (in April) was $4.32, todays close $4.29, so very close, if this is breached I would say it is still going up, also on the positive side there was high volume, and the close was on the days highs (almost) with a long tail, also bullish.

So the only negative is that I am wrong more often than right 

So I would keep them and use a very tight stop, if prices reject at $4.32 I would be out, otherwise let profits run.This should be rule no.1 in my view.


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## Realist (22 June 2006)

> Nice work if you can get it Realist
> 
> If you look at the chart the recent high (in April) was $4.32, todays close $4.29, so very close, if this is breached I would say it is still going up, also on the positive side there was high volume, and the close was on the days highs (almost) with a long tail, also bullish.
> 
> ...




Hmm thanks.

Let's see tomorrow...


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## BlueTrader (22 June 2006)

MBL went off today, +4.2%.  $68.56 close !!! This baby's got more coming!!


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## chennyleeeee (29 June 2006)

Lost too much, enough for me to want to save on tax. haha

CHEN


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## makeorbreak (14 November 2006)

S**T - I've lost enough over the past week


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## CanOz (14 November 2006)

makeorbreak said:
			
		

> S**T - I've lost enough over the past week




Less than 2%, would have been more if i didn't sell earlier than where my stops were.


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## Out Too Soon (16 November 2006)

Haven't lost a cent. Haven't sold anything at a loss although I seem to be getting stop lossed out of a stock a day (at profit) meaning my paper profit for my portfolio is negative a few hundred dollars for the first time in months.
SSI & NMS are my biggest paper negatives at present but I'm confident they'll both reward handsomely in the long run.


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