# TNY - Tinybeans Group



## System (2 March 2017)

Tinybeans Group owns and operates Tinybeans, a mobile and web-based social media platform that allows parents to record and share precious moments and milestones with family and friends privately and securely.

Through the Tinybeans experience, users can also access rich content, and are offered products and services that are based on the age and stage of development of their child.

Tinybeans currently has more than 1,500,000 registered users, over 540,000 monthly active users and over 130,000 users using the Tinybeans "Family Premium" paid subscription service.

It is anticipated that TNY will list on the ASX during March 2017.

http://www.tinybeans.com


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## kid hustlr (4 March 2017)

The wife uses this to keep in touch with family about how our little one is going. it's a good idea in my view.


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## skc (6 March 2017)

kid hustlr said:


> The wife uses this to keep in touch with family about how our little one is going. it's a good idea in my view.




I have 3 kids in the last 6 years and haven't even heard of them. So I guess on the negative side they need better marketing, and on the negative side there's plenty of growth ahead?!

Doesn't sound like there's a huge barrier to entry, does it?

P.S. When I saw the name of the company all I can think of in a chocking hazard.


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## kid hustlr (6 March 2017)

skc said:


> I have 3 kids in the last 6 years and haven't even heard of them. So I guess on the negative side they need better marketing, and on the negative side there's plenty of growth ahead?!
> 
> Doesn't sound like there's a huge barrier to entry, does it?
> 
> P.S. When I saw the name of the company all I can think of in a chocking hazard.




My wife heard of them through a friend. The concept is solid in that you want to share baby pic's etc but the idea of having 500 facebook strangers looking at family pictures is weird.


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## verce (22 January 2019)

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/tinybeans-family-album-book/id521633042?mt=8

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tinybeans&amp;hl=en

ASX: TNY – the number one social media platform in the world for parents - experiencing viral and organic growth via word of mouth. Featured on the front page of the US App Store in Jan 2018. Also featured in the UK and Ireland App stores as “App of the Day”.

*Turning operating cash flow positive during calendar 2019 – they have just appointed John Dougall as Non-Executive Chairman. John has taken ASX technology companies from zero to over $100,000,000 per annum in the past.*

_"We think the US has enormous growth potential and we really haven't fully saturated the market yet"_

*Market Cap ~$10 million AUD








*

The market cap is tiny, and the unique data they have access to is very, very lucrative for advertisers. The Top 20 own 75% of the stock.

3.1 million members in over 200 countries, and once a customer signs up, the brand loyalty is very high.

*Partnerships including Macmillan Books, Pottery Barn, Scholastic, Canon, Walt Disney, Walmart, Nike, General Motors, and Macy*’s who can use the platform for targeted advertising.

*Snapchat started out with less traction than this.* The only thing that worked for Snapchat was word of mouth (which is what TNY is doing). It took a bit of time to get going but it eventually snowballed into the 12-billion-dollar giant it is today.

This will be one of the biggest turnaround stories of 2019. I truly believe it. The CEO is fully committed and always happy to answer shareholder questions.


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## JTLP (22 January 2019)

Just read the quarterly, they’ll have an estimated $500k cash at the end of this one, spending circa $1.5m across it. $1m of this (same with most quarters) is staff costs [emoji33]. 

Cap raising soon unless they get more wild growth?


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## verce (13 March 2019)

The number one social media platform in the world for parents - experiencing viral and organic growth via word of mouth. The market cap is tiny, and the unique data they have access to is very, very lucrative for advertisers. The Top 20 own 75% of the stock. 3.1 million members in over 200 countries, and once a customer signs up, the brand loyalty is very high. *Turning operating cash flow positive during calendar 2019.*


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## verce (13 March 2019)

There will be an investor roadshow in Sydney on Tuesday, March 19, and in Melbourne on Thursday, March 21.


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## JTLP (13 March 2019)

Average staff costs of $150k per person. That’s the problem with Aussie businesses, people want to pay themselves fat before making their startup thrive.


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## verce (14 March 2019)

I don't think that's fair. They need to attract talented individuals and decent remuneration is key. That's the reality of working in tech. It's built on the people.


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## verce (14 March 2019)

I've been keeping tabs on the rollout of the app - and while it's clear they are doing very well in the US - this is really only the beginning of their market penetration. There's massive traffic coming through the app and it's all been via word of mouth (which is why they are closing revenue contracts with Fortune 500 companies).

Chairman John Dougall said in his recent letter to shareholders that he has taken several technologies *"from zero to over $100,000,000 per annum. I believe that the Tinybeans offering has global potential."*

I'm inclined to agree looking at the stats. Here's a recent cut (compared to next closest competitor Lifecake which was acquired by Canon):








They haven't even begun to look at countries outside the United States - *"our current focus is on the 35 million young families in the USA. We’ll look at other markets once we capitalise on the significant potential of the US"*

*Now imagine if they switched on their marketing efforts for mainland Europe or Asia*... That growth would be HUGE. And I dare say families in Europe and Asia are at least as invested - if not more so - in recording and maintaining a positive family journal that works as a secure, digital keepsake. A digital keepsake that doesn't fade away like an old photo book. *Do not underestimate the tremendous power of keeping a family history and heritage. It's part of the human experience.*

This is only $10 million market cap and every day I see crap companies with no growth or revenue prospects pushing a market cap ten times this price. They made ~$1.7 million in revenue for the half year, *which is almost as much as the Company delivered for the entire FY18. They have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to turning operating cash flow positive during calendar year 2019.*

I suspect the lack of interest is due to the tiny amount of shares on issue (circa 32 million) with almost 75% ownership by the Top 20 (off the top of my head).


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## verce (14 March 2019)

*Please note that Tinybeans now has 1.1 million Monthly Active Users (MAU)* - so no longer at 0.8 - *but the market cap has actually declined to 7 million USD (half what is on this chart)*

MAUs have room to grow - *but we must remember that the value of each user is probably far significantly higher than comparative social media companies*. To quote Independent Investment Research:

_"We would make the point that the TNY active base is probably at the more lucrative end of the spectrum given the very targeted and specific nature of the app and the nature of its user base interaction combined with the high usage per month levels."_

Once a customer signs up, the brand loyalty is very high. Over 90% of Tinybeans members would purchase a product or service that Tinybeans recommends. It has the first touch of the millennial parent demographic (much like Afterpay) and these people are just coming into their prime income-earning years.


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## galumay (14 March 2019)

Their website is disgusting, that was enough to put me off! Not sure why this is so common in the space, at least go and spend some money on quality web design if thats your core business. 

I am also very dubious about the penetration they can achieve, there are so many other platforms for sharing multi media that are already more embedded. 

The employee costs are very high too, maybe as they scale up they can afford it, but they cant at this stage. It also plays into the poor website, what are they paying them so much, for?

Mind you, I am a notoriously bad judge of these sort of tech, growth stocks. I have passed on most of the ones that actually ended up becoming speculative success stories. The success rate is so tiny and most end up forgotten and nothing more than proof of surviorship bias and I struggle with the asymmetric risk that is in opposition to what i look for!


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## So_Cynical (15 March 2019)

galumay said:


> Their website is disgusting, that was enough to put me off! Not sure why this is so common in the space, at least go and spend some money on quality web design if thats your core business.




https://tinybeans.com/

That's pretty standard for modern landing page sites, somewhat minimalist, scroll down and stuff appears, keep it simple.


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## verce (15 March 2019)

I think the website is fantastic and intuitive. Simplicity and elegance is better than over-engineered garbage. But I guess some people prefer animated gifs and videos firing off on all fronts. 

If you doubt their marketing prowess, just watch this 2019 video that was soft launched in February.



https://tinybeans.com/about/team.html

*In other news, there's a new interview out today with Medium (very significant global profile and readership)*



_S.J. Kurtini created __Tinybeans__ in 2012 after moving overseas and realizing other parents would value the ability to store precious memories of their children and share them with a private network of loved ones in a trusted, happy place. Since then, the app has evolved into an all-in-one destination that provides a safe and loving space for parents to document their child’s lives through photo sharing, journaling, milestone tracking, and photo album printing. As Tinybeans’ Co-founder & Head of Product Marketing, S.J. brings over a decade of experience to her role as she held past positions in social media and marketing at M&C Saatchi and Drum._


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## JTLP (15 March 2019)

Verce do you have any interest in them? You’re definitely batting for them here. 

I’m not fully sold. Invest more in the company. People don’t need cash as an incentive to work; why not give them options? Better way of hitting targets.


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## verce (15 March 2019)

Hi JTLP

*I am a long-term holder* and I've been following this from September 2018. I think it's extremely undervalued and the fundamentals are very strong. If you can get in around this price, it should be well-rewarded in the long-run.

People need cash to live, mind you. And options are already on the table and can be exercised at varying price points above $1. Rarely do you see a company with the Top 10 owning ~70% of the stock. They are very much aligned with shareholders here.

TNY has proven it can generate advertising revenues from the platform (closing one of their biggest contracts ever at the start of this year) and its advertising initiatives are highly effective. There are 125 million babies born each year.

*EXAMPLE OF THEIR E-COMMERCE POTENTIAL FROM TODAY:*


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## Ann (15 March 2019)

...This seems like a good niche idea, a baby Facebook. The only concern I have are the pedophile rings that may flock to this site. Hopefully it will be secure for only known family and friends to view the children. 
So far the company has gone nowhere in two years and on the chart the Positive Volume Index is falling, it may rise above its 200dsma by default soon. Perhaps some roadshows and Verce on the job may see the volumes and price pick up a bit. Might be worth watching for a bit of a pump.


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## tinhat (15 March 2019)

galumay said:


> Their website is disgusting, that was enough to put me off! Not sure why this is so common in the space, at least go and spend some money on quality web design if thats your core business.
> 
> I am also very dubious about the penetration they can achieve, there are so many other platforms for sharing multi media that are already more embedded.
> 
> ...




You may be a dinosaur like me and surf the web "old school" on a PC/laptop. Most websites these days are designed to be primarily read on mobile devices.





(Source: ABC).


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## Smurf1976 (15 March 2019)

galumay said:


> Their website is disgusting, that was enough to put me off! Not sure why this is so common in the space, at least go and spend some money on quality web design if thats your core business.



I'm not seeing the problem here?

I'm no web designer but at least it's not like those newspaper sites with videos starting up all over the place and one article split into 20 pages just to waste time and increase the number of links clicked on etc.

They could do far worse than what they've done.


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## verce (15 March 2019)

Ann said:


> ...This seems like a good niche idea, a baby Facebook. The only concern I have are the pedophile rings that may flock to this site. Hopefully it will be secure for only known family and friends to view the children.
> So far the company has gone nowhere in two years and on the chart the Positive Volume Index is falling, it may rise above its 200dsma by default soon. Perhaps some roadshows and Verce on the job may see the volumes and price pick up a bit. Might be worth watching for a bit of a pump.
> 
> View attachment 92927




You know what Ann - I think I'm beginning to like you! 

I think it's very secure and only immediate family members and friends that you choose to invite are allowed into the network. Whereas people have legitimate privacy concerns about Facebook, who have done some shonky things in the past with user data.

Perhaps we are witnessing the grand shift from social media monopolies to trustworthy niche providers! Kind of like how people are shifting from the big four banks, VISA, and Mastercard to services such as Afterpay.


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## Ann (15 March 2019)

verce said:


> You know what Ann - I think I'm beginning to like you!
> 
> I think it's very secure and only immediate family members and friends that you choose to invite are allowed into the network. Whereas people have legitimate privacy concerns about Facebook, who have done some shonky things in the past with user data.
> 
> Perhaps we are witnessing the grand shift from social media monopolies to trustworthy niche providers! Kind of like how people are shifting from the big four banks, VISA, and Mastercard to services such as Afterpay.




Also what I liked and saw after I posted was the concept of marketing products on the site. Sort of a combination of Facebook and Amazon, all they need to do now it to have an Ebay style where parents can sell their second hand kids stuff on line through them.
I can actually see the potential for an awesome site with this stock. If it is run properly it could rock!


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## galumay (15 March 2019)

Oh well, I am obviously on my own in thinking its a **** site! I dont think you guys are going to get a job in design though!! I dont think those layouts, colour combinations and animations are going to cut through with the 20 something new parents demographic. 

Verce, what fundamentals do you see, to percieve them as being very strong?

How did you arrive a range of intrinsic value that indicated it was currently 'extremely' undervalued?

I live in a town of young famiies, yet to meet anyone who has even heard of it let alone used it.

Why wouldn't parents just use, email, facebook, instagram, iCloud, SmugMug, etc etc??

Having a quick look I see revenue growth but increased cash outflow, are they just buying users, through advertising or at high cost?


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## verce (15 March 2019)

I think you are determined to dislike the stock at this stage.

If you refuse to acknowledge the fundamentals after reviewing every post I have made in this thread, then there's not much else I can do to change your mind. Microcaps aren't for everyone. Some people like the risk vs reward here.

You live in a town of young families, I assume in Australia? TNY haven't "turned the tap on" yet for their marketing. So wouldn't that suggest that there's actually a huge potential growth story here? Lots of families who will potentially sign up.

While the likes of Facebook and Instagram are mainstream sharing platforms, they are just not as effective, and there is already growing distrust in Facebook for their questionable history of user privacy. Nobody wants to overshare personal stuff on Facebook. TNY allows for collation and sharing of memories for those who don't care for social media (grandparents). It is more a digital ecosystem to connect parents, friends and families with innovative products and content to assist in raising their children.

Look at the market cap, not the share price. You really think this is fairly valued at $10m?


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## Ann (15 March 2019)

verce said:


> There will be an investor roadshow in Sydney on Tuesday, March 19, and in Melbourne on Thursday, March 21.



Where and how are they doing the roadshow Verce?


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## verce (15 March 2019)

Hi Ann

I saw it on Proactive Investors.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com....light-at-techknow-invest-roadshow-216330.html

I'm not sure where exactly, but I would reach out to Organiser Vertical Events.


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## JTLP (15 March 2019)

verce said:


> Hi JTLP
> 
> *I am a long-term holder* and I've been following this from September 2018.




Lol that’s not long term. That’s only 6 months?

To be fair, the website and the features are useful and they tick boxes of being modern, it’s just a really cluttered space and so many other vehicles fill this void of capturing the moment etc. 

Plus the staff costs are killing me. You have to work for them right?


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## verce (15 March 2019)

JTLP said:


> Lol that’s not long term. That’s only 6 months?
> 
> To be fair, the website and the features are useful and they tick boxes of being modern, it’s just a really cluttered space and so many other vehicles fill this void of capturing the moment etc.
> 
> Plus the staff costs are killing me. You have to work for them right?




I have absolutely no connection to them whatsoever. I just know a good company when I find one. Let's see how the next 12 months pans out! Maybe you'll become a believer yet.


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## galumay (18 March 2019)

verce said:


> I think you are determined to dislike the stock at this stage.




No, I am trying to understand the business, as an investor thats what I do. I dont like or dislike businesses, I either condsider them investible or not.



verce said:


> If you refuse to acknowledge the fundamentals after reviewing every post I have made in this thread




I haven't seen any fundamental data posted by you, that would indicate the business is "strong". Feel free to show me the metrics that led you to make that claim.



verce said:


> Look at the market cap, not the share price.




I dont value businesses by market cap or price. (I hope you realise they are effectively the same metric.) 
Obviously its over valued at current price/market cap, what someone speculating on the business is betting on is that one day the cash flow generated by the business will justify the current price. Thats a pretty asymmetric risk IMO.


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## verce (18 March 2019)

An amazing reduction in cash burn revealed in today's announcement.






I truly believe they will be cashflow positive now.

Q3 FY19 costs expected to be between $500k and $650k (compared to 1 million last quarter)

Q4 FY19 costs expected to be between $300k and $400k!


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## verce (20 March 2019)

Featured in the Harvard Business Review today.

https://hbr.org/2019/03/why-businesses-should-know-where-their-densest-markets-are

A *Maximum Density Market (MDM)* is a subsector of a category that has unusually high concentrations of demand in a small arena on a per capita basis. Demand density is extremely important as *it provides a shortcut to scalability with far less investment* than to achieve it on a mass market basis. The density of the market *makes word of mouth exponentially faster* and more powerful, so less marketing (if any) dollars are needed.

*Consider Tinybeans*, a fast-growing private social media network with over 3 million users. It’s a photo and video sharing site focused on newborns and the many delightful milestones they achieve over the next months. *Unlike Facebook*, where everyone can see your photos and videos, Tinybeans is private and accessible by invitation only to close friends and family, so there is a tremendous amount of trust which encourages more sharing. *This newborn MDM is extremely attractive to marketers whose products are tied to this life event*, such as life insurance, a $700 billion dollar industry that is normally unpleasant to talk about.


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## verce (22 March 2019)

Quite a bit of volume today. Listed as one of the 5 Best Photo Sharing Sites.

https://pregnantchicken.com/photo-sharing-sites/

*Great for the parent who forgot to write yet another milestone in their kid’s baby book.*

Tinybeans is a super popular app for sharing photos and videos of your precious little bundle of love and poop.


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## verce (23 March 2019)

Tinybeans has a Net Promoter Score of *EIGHTY (80)




Compare this to Facebook and Apple:







*


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## verce (2 April 2019)

Solid appointment today.


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## verce (2 April 2019)

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wir...platform-baby-child-sector-strong-us-presence

(March 2018)

IIR has a *12-month price target of A$1.50 *per share based on our underlying earnings assumptions and DCF valuation. The Company has a proven product and business model. TNY offers a strong selling proposition for brands operating in the infant space. Its users are millennial parents with modern and connected families and who have a high level of trust in the platform.


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## verce (4 April 2019)

*"allows the Company to confidently affirm the commitment to turn cash flow break even this calendar year."*

*"The Company expects to announce other brand partnership wins in the near term."*


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## Ann (4 April 2019)

Just adding a chart for TNY. I have been watching this thinking it may start to wake up and do something, so far nothing too spectacular, it has worked its way beyond the falling overhead resistance. However looking at the Twiggs Money Flow set on a weekly view it has seen a big drop. Profit taking perhaps?
This is yesterdays chart as my charts are on delay. It closed up today at 0.365c


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## verce (5 April 2019)

*Highlights:*


*Tinybeans signs 6 brands to its extensive partner roster in the past 30 days, generating over $230,000 in revenues through 2019 and accelerating momentum moving into Q4 FY19.*

*Partners include Goddard Schools, Eargo, Gobble, Bright Cellars and a global imaging brand, with a repeat campaign signed with Macmillan Kids.*

*All of these signed contracts will have an immediate impact on revenues and allows the Company to confidently affirm the commitment to turn cash flow break even this calendar year.*


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## Ann (9 April 2019)

Verce will be pleased TNY went up 11.11% today to 40c.


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## verce (9 April 2019)

Haha thanks Ann. It's really hard to tell what is going on. The price fluctuations seem really wacky at the moment. I note it is continuing to get good reviews on the Apple App Store and the Google Play store. But that's about it.


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## Ann (9 April 2019)

verce said:


> Haha thanks Ann. It's really hard to tell what is going on. The price fluctuations seem really wacky at the moment. I note it is continuing to get good reviews on the Apple App Store and the Google Play store. But that's about it.



I think it as simple as a lack of volume Verce. Currently there are six buyers and no sellers with a turnover today of $10,946. Until the volume of both sellers and buyers picks up it is going to be like a bit of flotsam bobbing around in the ocean. There is no demand basically. I think the most buyers I have ever seen at any one time (when I have been looking) is seven. Often there are only a couple of sellers.  Sorry I can't be more upbeat.


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 April 2019)

JTLP said:


> Average staff costs of $150k per person. That’s the problem with Aussie businesses, people want to pay themselves fat before making their startup thrive.




I've got no problems with the concept, however looking at the trading data over the last six months I fail to see any supply. I only saw two days where the dollar value exceeds what that person working for them earns per annum. 

Mostly it is under $10,000

Caveat emptor.

gg


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## MARKETWINNER (9 April 2019)

I heard its registered and monthly active users have grown by more than 50% since 2017.
Are they planning to increase market share and planning to do bigger technology investment?


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## verce (11 April 2019)




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## JTLP (12 April 2019)

verce said:


> View attachment 93711




Sounds promising! Hope it works well for you [emoji1360]


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## verce (13 April 2019)

Thanks JTLP - quietly optimistic. Will be interesting to see whether a capital raising is required or not.


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## Ann (13 April 2019)

...and an End of Day chart.  Currently 40c seems to be the resistance it needs to push through.


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## verce (14 April 2019)

Ann said:


> ...and an End of Day chart.  Currently 40c seems to be the resistance it needs to push through.
> 
> View attachment 93759




Thanks Ann

I am managing my expectations. I hope that whatever the announcement is tomorrow, it proves to be enough to break through that resistance at 40 cents.

All other technical things aside, I do think this is a positive company that is bringing a bit of good into the world. It's more than I can say for a lot of other companies. That's gotta be worth something at least.


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## Ann (15 April 2019)

Verce is going to be a very happy chappy today.....See, he told us, didn't he! 
So far today TNY is up 65% to 66c
*Tinybeans lands advertising deal with Lego for photo sharing app*

_Technology developer Tinybeans (ASX: TNY) has announced its largest contract to date, inking an advertising deal with international toy giant Lego Systems Inc for its namesake photo sharing platform._

_Under the deal, Lego will advertise its Duplo products on the Tinybeans ‘modern family album’ app, targeting families of toddlers and pre-schoolers in the United States._

_Although the financial value of the contract has not been revealed, Tinybeans said the deal surpasses its previous record marketing campaign made in February with a US-based life insurer for more than $200,000. More..._


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## verce (15 April 2019)

Ann said:


> Verce is going to be a very happy chappy today.....See, he told us, didn't he!
> So far today TNY is up 65% to 66c
> *Tinybeans lands advertising deal with Lego for photo sharing app*
> 
> ...




Thanks Ann

Today was pure validation and vindication of the business model. To reiterate:

Once a customer signs up, the brand loyalty is very high. Over 90% of Tinybeans members would purchase a product or service that Tinybeans recommends. *It has the first touch of the millennial parent demographic* (*much like Afterpay*) *and these people are just coming into their prime income-earning years*.

Any chance of an updated chart to see where the next resistance is?


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## peter2 (15 April 2019)

Well done @verce You posted about a company and gave us a chance to look at it *before* the price spike. Resistance is supply from long term holders pleased to get their money back. There may not be the usual resistance levels because the trading volumes have been so light. 

This contract with a high profile brand (Lego) may entice other well known brands to consider the services of TNY.


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## verce (15 April 2019)

peter2 said:


> Well done @verce You posted about a company and gave us a chance to look at it *before* the price spike. Resistance is supply from long term holders pleased to get their money back. There may not be the usual resistance levels because the trading volumes have been so light.
> 
> This contract with a high profile brand (Lego) may entice other well known brands to consider the services of TNY.
> 
> View attachment 93823




Hi Peter

I really appreciate your comment about my research. I've put in over a hundred hours of my time into reading about this company over the course of many months, so I'm quite chuffed to see it pay off in the end.

I feel this is just the beginning and people are beginning to take note. Thank you for the charts!


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## galumay (15 April 2019)

Well done, Verce. Its a good feeling when businesses we have a high conviction in, do well in the market.


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## Miner (15 April 2019)

verce said:


> View attachment 91570
> 
> 
> https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/tinybeans-family-album-book/id521633042?mt=8
> ...



I was intrigued to see your tip's performance and started looking at this stock and thread. Noticed, on January 19, you have already foreseen it. With grown-up children, until they become parents, I am not a customer of this product but from an investment perspective, do not mind to follow this thread in future.
Good work


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## Ann (16 April 2019)

verce said:


> Any chance of an updated chart to see where the next resistance is?




Here you go Verce,
Again showing the chart with EOD prices we can see there may be a support or possibly a resistance at 70c if TNY retraces a little. Referring to the Equivolume chart (not shown) there appears to be a little selling pressure from .675c to .70c 

I have drawn a rising support line from .26c and then it touches again at around .36c this is giving it a good angle of rising support which may be an effective proven support as it moves along its trail upwards.


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## tech/a (16 April 2019)




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## barney (16 April 2019)

Bit of profit taking and Supply hitting the 60 cent level today ….. Buyers appear to be thinning ….. Hope she holds up for you @verce


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## Ann (16 April 2019)

barney said:


> Bit of profit taking and Supply hitting the 60 cent level today ….. Buyers appear to be thinning ….. Hope she holds up for you @verce




I think Verce will be happy enough, the spike is bringing in a bit more interest than normal and it did get a little over excited yesterday but it is only a youngster, it will have its second birthday on the 21st of April. Put it down to the exuberance of youth! Far better than a recycled mining company with a share consolidation in its background!


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## barney (16 April 2019)

Ann said:


> Far better than a recycled mining company with a share consolidation in its background!




I love recycled Mining Companies

TNY is very illiquid so its pretty difficult to make any assessment on how the short term price action will play out T/A wise ….  

If it consolidates between 50 and 55 over the next few days with increasing Volume, the Chart will have a better feel about it …. 

Over the last X months its been a bit of a "Gapathon" on minimal Volume


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## barney (16 April 2019)

Just following on from the T/A aspect …. Until the Company gives some more detail on the financial benefit the Leggo deal actually brings, Traders/Investors are flying a bit blind in what it really means dollar wise …. (Traders will take profits unless there is a reason to stay put)

Further announcements should be in the pipeline regarding the above you'd expect ….. Good numbers could make the world of difference to how the SP behaves in the short term


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## verce (16 April 2019)

Hi all

I'm not too worried. Stocks rarely go up in a straight line, unfortunately. I think it will be worth seeing how the rest of the year unfolds.

Cheers


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## Ann (16 April 2019)

barney said:


> TNY is very illiquid so its pretty difficult to make any assessment on how the short term price action will play out T/A wise ….




It is illiquid barney, at least there are a few more participants standing in line to buy and sell now. Although I note the 33 trades for the day averaged out at $2,289.00 each. It looks like people are putting their toe in but not very deeply. I guess they are interested but cautious, which is very reasonable.

Even if a chart is illiquid I can still chart it. The laws of support and resistance and seller pressure are there and as tech/a pointed out there were volume spikes on the first and second of April. Although I noted at the time on Twiggs Money Flow, those spikes were actually outflows.

Anyway, who knows, years from now we might be saying to each other, I could have bought that for .55c now look at it it is a $200 share!!


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## barney (16 April 2019)

verce said:


> Hi all
> 
> I'm not too worried. Stocks rarely go up in a straight line, unfortunately. I think it will be worth seeing how the rest of the year unfolds.
> 
> Cheers




Good luck with it in the longer term Verce …… You have done your research, and like the Company …. back your own analysis ………

if @Ann suggestion of a multi bagger comes to fruition …. just remember your mates here on ASF


----------



## Ann (17 April 2019)

Here is a chart for Verce, not so exciting as the last one but nothing to worry too much about, it hasn't collapsed through any important supports. Finally the 'punters' have seen TNY as reflected in the Positive Volume Index. Let's see what today brings.


----------



## verce (17 April 2019)

Thanks Ann! I am not going to give up hope!

I saw that Tinybeans were featured in Forbes in the US, which is not a bad bit of media coverage.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/meimei...social-network-based-on-privacy/#3b2050bb5e5d

_In an era when privacy issues have risen to the forefront of consumer consciousness, when companies like Facebook are getting reamed for sharing our personal, private data without our knowledge or consent, Tinybeans seems ahead of its time._


----------



## Miner (17 April 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks Ann! I am not going to give up hope!
> 
> I saw that Tinybeans were featured in Forbes in the US, which is not a bad bit of media coverage.
> 
> ...



Great signs of confidence based on research. Not a holder but hats off @verce


----------



## verce (17 April 2019)

Miner said:


> Great signs of confidence based on research. Not a holder but hats off @verce




Thanks Miner.

I am optimistic that what we are seeing now is greater general interest, and consolidation around the 50 cent range. This stock has a habit of trading sideways for a while, followed by sudden strong moves upwards.

I hope that this has encouraged people to do some additional research on their own, and come to the same conclusions that I have.


----------



## verce (19 April 2019)

Strong quarterly result yesterday. Here's some highlights from my perspective:


----------



## Ann (19 April 2019)

Nice figures Verce.
Looking at the chart for this week's action, I can see a short term support/resistance line between .60c and .61c, it needs to overcome this to make it's next attempt at .70c resistance.
The weekly money flow is pointing up again. There was a big volume spike yesterday with 32 trades averaging $7,938 much better result than ever before. I think it is on its way. Nothing like a good price spike to get the attention of the punters!


----------



## barney (19 April 2019)

Ann said:


> resistance line between *.60c and .61c, it needs to overcome this*




Agree  ….. 

Technically:

Until it does that, the current wider Range looks 54-61 cents …. 

Given yesterday's small gap open at 58 cents, in a perfect world (hopefully @verce world), it won't trade below 57 in the short term ….. 

And if the Supply at 60-61 dries up, who knows


Fundamentally:

Not sure how up to date my numbers are, but Market Cap was $12 million before the spike, so around $18 million currently??

Employee expenses/administration costs have been greater than Income till recently so hopefully the new contracts will get them cash flow positive which would make a huge difference. 

Early days and the Co. is doing well ….. Good management will be the secret as always with Small caps. You are in early Verce so good luck with it


----------



## verce (19 April 2019)

Thanks Barney. Your market cap is pretty much correct. There are 32,948,934 shares on issue.

The Top 20 at last count own roughly 75% of the stock.


----------



## barney (19 April 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks Barney. Your market cap is pretty much correct. There are 32,948,934 shares on issue.
> 
> *The Top 20 at last count own roughly 75% of the stock*.




I like that number!!    That gives the current SP rise/volume more substance especially if the Range stays tight and above 57 cents. Why do I say that? I'm glad you asked

My  .. The ratio of those buying at the recent lows and the amount traded at the recent highs is still potentially weighted to a bit more profit taking, but the weighting is not huge …. that's a plus.

In the short term,* the more Shares that change hands around the 60 cent level * by anyone other than Top 20 Holders,* the better*  ie. Replace the Profit Takers with New longer term Investors or Traders anticipating a higher SP. 

The next few days trading will tell a better story but solid (not ultra) Volume is important at the moment.


----------



## MARKETWINNER (19 April 2019)

It’s great to see a nice rebound in the last three months. Did anybody buy when their share price tanked by 56%.

52 Week Range:0.2100 - 0.8000


----------



## verce (19 April 2019)

MARKETWINNER said:


> It’s great to see a nice rebound in the last three months. Did anybody buy when their share price tanked by 56%.
> 
> 52 Week Range:0.2100 - 0.8000




I did! It was ridiculously oversold.


----------



## MARKETWINNER (19 April 2019)

It is worth to look for heavily oversold companies with superior financial, debt free or increased revenue.


----------



## verce (20 April 2019)

MARKETWINNER said:


> It is worth to look for heavily oversold companies with superior financial, debt free or increased revenue.




Very true Marketwinner.

I take inspiration from this guy:


----------



## barney (22 April 2019)

verce said:


> I take inspiration from this guy:




Hats off to Peter Lynch ….. apart from being a smart chap and a smarter Investor …. he is a really funny dude ……   

Educational Financial speakers are not generally known for their amusing repartee.  

This however is good value on a couple of levels 

His hair however is a bit scary


----------



## verce (23 April 2019)

Some respectable volume this morning.


----------



## verce (23 April 2019)

Solid day - I guess the question in everyone's minds is can we break through 70 cents? I'm inclined to say yes.


----------



## barney (23 April 2019)

verce said:


> Some respectable volume this morning.




Great day for the Tinylegumes 

The Supply is getting thinner than my old man's hair

Over the recent high at 72 cents and its everyone to your place for a booze up @verce lol


----------



## verce (23 April 2019)

barney said:


> Great day for the Tinylegumes
> 
> The Supply is getting thinner than my old man's hair
> 
> Over the recent high at 72 cents and its everyone to your place for a booze up @verce lol




If I get to retire early @Ann is definitely invited because she believed in me from basically the beginning. And was very helpful with the charts!

You can come too barney.


----------



## barney (23 April 2019)

verce said:


> If I get to retire early
> 
> You can come too barney.




Lol ….. I'm in

Bear in mind … if AMG happens to strike an IOCG at Cloncurry I will be retiring first

If not, fortunately I like the taste of baked beans, so win win either way for me

Seriously though … Tiny beans is showing some positive signs … if it gets through those recent highs, it could really get interesting Technically ….. If that happens and the Fundamentals stack up … happy days for holders


----------



## verce (24 April 2019)

The special event sales for brands reminds me of the Afterpay "Afteryay Day" kind of deal. Very switched on marketing.

*e.g.
*





*And the Tinybeans approach:
*


There is a lot of scope for expansion here as @Ann pointed out:

_"Sort of a combination of Facebook and Amazon, all they need to do now it to have an Ebay style where parents can sell their second hand kids stuff on line through them."_


----------



## barney (24 April 2019)

Up another 20% today so far  … I see a booze up coming lol   ….. Great to see someone having a win @verce


----------



## verce (24 April 2019)

barney said:


> Up another 20% today so far  … I see a booze up coming lol   ….. Great to see someone having a win @verce




Thanks mate! I much prefer this supportive forum to the 'other' one I won't name. Dealing with perpetual trolls is frustrating at times.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 April 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks mate! I much prefer this supportive forum to the 'other' one I won't name. Dealing with perpetual trolls is frustrating at times.




It appears as if it is "Verce, : Veni, vidi, vici." Month. A good pick. 

gg


----------



## verce (24 April 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It appears as if it is "Verce, : Veni, vidi, vici." Month. A good pick.
> 
> gg




I did take my name from Vercingetorix after all!


----------



## Ann (25 April 2019)

verce said:


> I did take my name from Vercingetorix after all!



I thought there was a meaning in your name Verce! I just did a search for images of Vercingetorix and he is one cool dude! Drag one in as your avatar, so much cooler then an empty space!

I will put up a chart on the weekend, this baby is flying.


----------



## verce (25 April 2019)

Looking forward to the chart! Will be watching closely tomorrow. There will probably be a slight pullback and some consolidation - a bit of a breather.


----------



## JTLP (26 April 2019)

I’m eating humble pie on this one!


----------



## barney (26 April 2019)

verce said:


> Looking forward to the chart! Will be watching closely tomorrow. There will probably be a slight pullback and some consolidation - a bit of a breather.




 … Not …. lol ….. 

I don't even own it and I'm excited  High of $1.03 .. up another 25+%


----------



## barney (26 April 2019)

Make that $1.09  ..... and 33% 

Spoke too soon and put the mocker on it  ….. Only   $1.06 lol


----------



## verce (26 April 2019)

Great stuff!


----------



## barney (26 April 2019)

barney said:


> Make that $1.09  ..... and 33%
> 
> Spoke too soon and put the mocker on it  ….. Only   $1.06 lol




Did I say $1.06 ………. Tell him he's dreaming ….. Currently $1.19

Hope she stays there for you Verce …….. Stellar rise.


----------



## barney (26 April 2019)

barney said:


> Tiny beans is showing some positive signs … if it gets through those recent highs, it could really get interesting Technically




Closed at $1.03 with some expected profit taking and a big Pin bar ….. Might need a bit of a rest and resuscitation for a while now you'd think.

If the Top 20 are holding tight, it will be a big vote of confidence though​


JTLP said:


> I’m eating humble pie on this one!




Humble pie still tastes better than baked beans


----------



## verce (26 April 2019)

Very happy. Still holding.

I personally subscribe to the philosophy that you should always let your winners run. The company is just as fundamentally strong as ever, and getting stronger if you look at the Apple App Store ratings (over 50,000 5-star reviews).

Great undervalued companies like this are so hard to find these days (I spent over a hundred hours researching - trust me) - why would I sell? Nothing has changed. Market cap still tiny. But this company is certainly not tiny in ambition!

Thanks everyone for your kind words.

@Ann looking forward to that chart! 

Cheers,
verce


----------



## tech/a (26 April 2019)

tech/a said:


> View attachment 93837




Someone knew something,


----------



## verce (27 April 2019)

*I note with interest that Pinterest (hey that rhymes) just IPO'd in the United States @ 10 billion USD so I dare say at ~30m AUD market cap this is still undervalued.

Snapchat started out with less traction than this. *The only thing that worked for Snapchat was word of mouth (which is what TNY is doing). It took a bit of time to get going but it eventually snowballed into the 12-billion-dollar giant it is today.

It's clear to see there are tech stocks on the ASX with no revenue prospects that are trading at 100m. Over three times TNY's current market cap *which would imply a fair valuation of $3.*

Separately, if you look at how social media networks are traditionally valued, Metcalfes law would dictate that if the number of users in a network doubles (which it has after reaching 3 million) then the value of said network actually goes up by quadruple. *Which would imply a fair valuation of $4.*

*I imagine the stock will eventually start trading in the $3 - $4 range when people wake up.*


----------



## Miner (27 April 2019)

verce said:


> *I note with interest that Pinterest (hey that rhymes) just IPO'd in the United States @ 10 billion USD so I dare say at ~30m AUD market cap this is still undervalued.
> 
> Snapchat started out with less traction than this. *The only thing that worked for Snapchat was word of mouth (which is what TNY is doing). It took a bit of time to get going but it eventually snowballed into the 12-billion-dollar giant it is today.
> 
> ...



Mate 
You talked money and showed money with conviction. I did not do research on this excepting reading your convincing success story and aiming to get TNY  to $3.
I believe your research has paid dividend and will pay as well. Do not hold but salute to your research.


----------



## galumay (27 April 2019)

verce said:


> It's clear to see there are tech stocks on the ASX with no revenue prospects that are trading at 100m. Over three times TNY's current market cap *which would imply a fair valuation of $3.*




It implies nothing of the sort, I suspect you are confusing price with value. (notwithstanding that your speculative bet on TNY has been hugely successful for you to date, well done.)



verce said:


> Separately, if you look at how social media networks are traditionally valued,...




If you use traditional valuation you end up with a valuation that is some fraction of current price, what has happened is that in order to support the speculative hype on these sort of businesses, analysts invent new metrics and claim "its different this time". We wont know until the tide goes out, who has togs on.

Remember the old adage, "in the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term its a weighing machine." The narrative has no intrinsic value, the hype & creative metrics have no intrinsic value, so if you plan to hold long term, make sure you inderstand the business, balance sheet and management alignment. 

As I say, well done to date, sounds like you are sitting on a significant gain.


----------



## barney (27 April 2019)

verce said:


> *I imagine the stock will eventually start trading in the $3 - $4 range when people wake up.*




I have no idea how to value the Company …. but if it does trade to $3 or $4 …. I will be very pleased to give you the appropriate amounts of a high fives ….. 

Bear in mind I still expect a gold pass to the booze up


----------



## verce (28 April 2019)

Given the highly targeted nature of the app to the lucrative millenial parent demographic, the value of each user is probably far significantly higher than comparative social media companies. So 100m market cap should be easily attainable in the medium-term.


----------



## Ann (28 April 2019)

verce said:


> I much prefer this supportive forum to the 'other' one I won't name. Dealing with perpetual trolls is frustrating at times.




Well, goodness me Verce, what a wonderful week TNY has had and a new cool dude avi as well! Excellent! 

Let's look at Friday's figures 334 trades for $789,785 averaging $2364 per trade, still only sticking their toes in but look how many toes are being wriggled around now! 

I do hope you have done a bit of an air punch with all of this fun. 

Now to the serious bit, the chart. Excellent volume spike of 746,973 and this is inflow this time looking at the Twiggs Money Flow. I would like to see a bit of a retrace in order to shake out any doubting thomases, not sure if it will happen, it feels like it is having too much fun with ship loads of energy.
Let's take a step back and look at it from its beginning with an End of Day chart. This chart only shows what price it closed, all the 'noise' of highs and lows are quietened. On August the 8th '17 just a few months after it listed it got excited and closed at $1.15. This is now the price which needs to be overcome. It is called a 'double top'. When TNY reaches this price level at a close, there may be a retrace but with TNY and its flow of great news which is not bedtime story stuff, this is good information of not, gunna...but actually dunnit! Let's see how it goes this week. I have put in a red resistance line. I see it as having over-reached itself but I sure could be wrong.


----------



## verce (29 April 2019)

Ann said:


> Well, goodness me Verce, what a wonderful week TNY has had and a new cool dude avi as well! Excellent!
> 
> Let's look at Friday's figures 334 trades for $789,785 averaging $2364 per trade, still only sticking their toes in but look how many toes are being wriggled around now!
> 
> ...




Thanks Ann!

Today was another solid day with decent volume. It's nice to have an investment thesis confirmed by the market. No idea what will happen tomorrow, but I'm still holding!


----------



## barney (29 April 2019)

verce said:


> No idea what will happen tomorrow, *but I'm still holding*!




As you should be Verce  ….. Price action today confirms last Friday's rise ..

Profit takers have been accounted for and a substantially higher close …

Anyone in at 40 cents is sitting pretty …

Technical players may lock in $1.03 as a stop loss area … so stronger hands may target that area to pick up weaker hands if they get the chance ….

On the flip side, if $1.12 holds with support … it will be up from here yet again …. and the booze up will get closer by the day


----------



## tech/a (29 April 2019)

Another perhaps slightly opposing view.

My technical view is that it has currently run its race.
There has been enormous effort to push over $1.20
and it has fallen short.
( I think under $1 in the next few days (3)).


----------



## verce (29 April 2019)

Thanks for the chart. We will see what happens tomorrow!


----------



## verce (29 April 2019)

This is still a lower market cap than the likes of NUH and YOJ.


----------



## Ann (30 April 2019)

With TNY, who knows what might happen. It has been running very hard and could use a breather. I am getting up close and personal with TNY today and looking at a one month chart. The volumes are still very good and the money flow is still going inward. The Positive Volume and Negative Volume Index are both well and truly in positive territory. One thing I am seeing on the chart today is a candlestick pattern from yesterday called a 'spinning top' which is sitting on top of a rise. This is suggesting the bulls may be running out of steam and we could see a fall back in the price level. Having said that, let's see what TNY whips out of its announcement box.......SURPRISE!


----------



## barney (30 April 2019)

barney said:


> Technical players may lock in* $1.03* as a stop loss area … so stronger hands may target that area to pick up weaker hands if they get the chance ….




At that $1.03 already today ….. Kind of expected …..  This level should give a better idea where she heads from here.


----------



## tech/a (30 April 2019)

barney said:


> At that $1.03 already today ….. Kind of expected …..  This level should give a better idea where she heads from here.




Coming back on low volume an opportunity to lock in profit then watch with a buy at $1.22 if it blasts through there.
My feeling is that its tested the $1.20 high and failed. so the smart ones are maximizing quick gains.


----------



## verce (30 April 2019)

tech/a said:


> Coming back on low volume an opportunity to lock in profit then watch with a buy at $1.22 if it blasts through there.
> My feeling is that its tested the $1.20 high and failed. so the smart ones are maximizing quick gains.




Where were these “smart ones” when this was 30 cents a share?


----------



## tech/a (30 April 2019)

Buying if they were smart.
Im just a dumb Duck so Im just watching.






Actually the smart ones ---Had they seen it would have bought at 50-70c
The Dumb lucky ones at 30 cents


----------



## HelloU (30 April 2019)

tech/a said:


> Buying if they were smart.
> Im just a dumb Duck so Im just watching.
> 
> View attachment 94211
> ...



agree totally
bought weetbix and tinybeans (WBT TNY) pilots last year solely on the basis that the names made me smile EVERY time i said them .... and still do. I do not actually care if they go up - i just like saying weetbix and tinybeans.

(i know it is not weetbix - but weetbix is what i say to have a laugh - I own "weetbix and tinybeans")


----------



## tech/a (30 April 2019)

HelloU said:


> agree totally
> bought weetbix and tinybeans (WBT TNY) pilots last year solely on the basis that the names made me smile EVERY time i said them .... and still do. I do not actually care if they go up - i just like saying weetbix and tinybeans.
> 
> (i know it is not weetbix - but weetbix is what i say to have a laugh - I own "weetbix and tinybeans")




If you've bought enough and they go high enough
There will come a time when you'll actually CARE


----------



## HelloU (30 April 2019)

i hear u but alas not (not really)
was minimum parcel ..... and did not care ...... i truthfully just smile at the names weetbix and tinybeans. 

(bit like i cannot say 'penis' out loud without laughing - but for another thread perhaps)


----------



## verce (30 April 2019)

No stock goes up in a straight line forever.

I never made my money based on what everyone else is doing. My conviction remains the same and nothing has changed fundamentally, so why sell?


----------



## tech/a (30 April 2019)

(1) To lock in exponential profits
(2) To avoid further loss.
(3) To wait for another buy opportunity and buy more 
From your profits a a far better price.

Today you had ample opportunity to close out with 20% more
Than at the close. Tomorrow that maybe 40% or 0%

What your doing is right for you.


----------



## verce (30 April 2019)

This is a hobby of mine (at work all day) and I can't time the market and sell at the peaks and buy back in at the troughs.

Easier to just hold from a tax perspective too.


----------



## tech/a (30 April 2019)

Holding for tax reasons is not necessarily wise.
Your valuation could be very wrong.

If you can read the posts through the day 
You can adjust your trade.

Good luck


----------



## barney (30 April 2019)

tech/a said:


> Coming back on low volume an opportunity to lock in profit then watch with a buy at $1.22 if it blasts through there.
> My feeling is that its tested the $1.20 high and failed. so the smart ones are maximizing quick gains.




Good call tech …. 

As long as it trades above 88 cents in the short/medium term @verce will be looking ok …. 

Under 88, especially on diminishing Volume will not be ideal!


----------



## verce (30 April 2019)

I will look at 88 as the danger zone then!


----------



## barney (30 April 2019)

tech/a said:


> Holding for tax reasons is not necessarily wise.




Unfortunately I have to agree ….. 

A couple of my "taxation" based trades have been far from productive


----------



## barney (30 April 2019)

verce said:


> I will look at 88 as the danger zone then!




I'm the last one to give trading advice....

88 is a pivotal point technically however … (short term)

My non-trading advice ……. 

Back your own judgement, but remain flexible in your assessment of that judgement if 'things change'

I don't hold … but the fact that the Co's Market Cap is tiny (pun included for free) … 

… plus the market has seen a reason to push this exponentially tells me there is something worth watching here

Companies that give you 2, 4 or perhaps 10 baggers and have *real substance* … take time to "mature"

Very few 'straight lines' in *longer term* trading successes at the Spec end of the market


----------



## barney (30 April 2019)

Of course, the fact that I want all the free booze when it hits $3 bucks and @verce  is shouting has nothing to do with my enthusiasm


----------



## Ann (1 May 2019)

verce said:


> I will look at 88 as the danger zone then!




I think there may be some keen buyers lined up today, perhaps looking for a bargain?
So far 38 buyers lined up and only 23 sellers. Always nice to see more buyers than sellers. Already they are saying the price has risen by 4.17% even before trading starts, keen!


----------



## verce (1 May 2019)

Ann said:


> I think there may be some keen buyers lined up today, perhaps looking for a bargain?
> So far 38 buyers lined up and only 23 sellers. Always nice to see more buyers than sellers. Already they are saying the price has risen by 4.17% even before trading starts, keen!
> 
> View attachment 94242




Thanks Ann! 

I received a research report from KPG New York at 2:30AM this morning with a price target of $1.813 USD (or $2.56 AUD) on TNY.

"The leader in U.S. social media and social networking service company, Facebook, has never seen its clear leadership challenged, and its lead in profitability has been only widening over time. We believe an Interactive Media & Services marketplace with a family and parent focus will share a similar path, *with TNY enjoying unchallenged leadership and disproportionate scale benefits."*

"Even if we limit Tinybeans’ target market to the United States only, *we see the ability for Tinybeans to reach at least 40 million users within the next ten years."*

*"On average, TNY gains one new member every 30 seconds.* The statistics shows that Tinybeans is on a clear path to achieve its’ ambitions and become the market leader."


----------



## tech/a (1 May 2019)

11% spread on a 1$ stock 
Volume ---where is it?
No Facebook this one!


----------



## verce (1 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> 11% spread on a 1$ stock
> Volume ---where is it?
> No Facebook this one!




Agree to disagree.


----------



## verce (1 May 2019)

I want to reiterate that Snapchat (Market Cap = 14 billion USD) launched in 2011 and started out with less traction than TNY. The only thing that worked for Snapchat was word of mouth and organic growth with hardly any marketing spend.

In 2012 Snapchat launched in Google Play Store for Android. This saw its user base grow to over 100,000 users (TNY at 3.2 million). It took a bit of time to get going but it eventually snowballed into the giant it is today.

Facebook was dominant at the time, but wise people observed that Snapchat was able to carve out its own niche and create a new social pipeline. Sound familiar?


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 May 2019)

verce said:


> I want to reiterate that Snapchat (Market Cap = 14 billion USD) launched in 2011 and started out with less traction than TNY. The only thing that worked for Snapchat was word of mouth and organic growth with hardly any marketing spend.
> 
> In 2012 Snapchat launched in Google Play Store for Android. This saw its user base grow to over 100,000 users (TNY at 3.2 million). It took a bit of time to get going but it eventually snowballed into the giant it is today.
> 
> Facebook was dominant at the time, but wise people observed that Snapchat was able to carve out its own niche and create a new social pipeline. Sound familiar?




there's a warning bell in the Twiggs 13week money flow suggests deep pockets have made their % and have already left the building and retail is buying a story and not statistics

typically when aggressive new highs are made with strong divergent 13 week money flows going negative retracements are substantial and long lasting ....just an observation, no intent


----------



## verce (1 May 2019)

Will be interesting to see what the big money does next!


----------



## verce (1 May 2019)

Is this the end of Tinybeans?!


----------



## verce (1 May 2019)

Not today!


----------



## Ann (1 May 2019)

verce said:


> Is this the end of Tinybeans?!





verce said:


> Not today!




Goodness me verce! It was simply bargain hunters trying to scare the bears! Bulls won, up 9.38%.
Almost double the buyers to sellers waiting for tomorrow's games - 43 to 26. It is still sitting under that important $1.15 support/resistance level. I will chart the action tomorrow for you. 

PS, Congratulations for the April comp win too!


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> typically when aggressive new highs are made with strong divergent 13 week money flows going negative retracements are substantial and long lasting ....just an observation, no intent




Looking at the chart with the 13 week money flow switched on and noticing the last candlestick pattern of a doji (this denotes a time of indecision in the market, a weakening of the bulls) may mean a weakening in the price. This appears to be a general consensus from the chartists.  Let's see what happens today. Added to that there was a big drop in the US markets overnight, so today may not be great for our market.


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

Ann said:


> ....a weakening in the price. This appears to be a general consensus from the chartists.




Well speaking for one chartist, I am delighted to have been wrong today! After the bell at 4:10:57pm TNY did a jump and closed at $1.04 up 4% for the day.


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 May 2019)

Ann said:


> Looking at the chart with the 13 week money flow switched on and noticing the last candlestick pattern of a doji (this denotes a time of indecision in the market, a weakening of the bulls) may mean a weakening in the price. This appears to be a general consensus from the chartists.  Let's see what happens today. Added to that there was a big drop in the US markets overnight, so today may not be great for our market.
> 
> View attachment 94276



doji's denote a  balance, does not imply bulls have weakened, there maybe the same bid volume with more sellers taking opportunity to bank coin or theyre simply too weak to hang on in fear of missing out on the gain todate...once those players are rinsed out the resistance removed, price can keep ascending even tho the player moving price are not major trend makers


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> doji's denote a  balance, does not imply bulls have weakened, there maybe the same bid volume with more sellers taking opportunity to bank coin or theyre simply too weak to hang on in fear of missing out on the gain todate...once those players are rinsed out the resistance removed, price can keep ascending even tho the player moving price are not major trend makers




I am still working on these candlesticks since I started to think short term. I prefer to use EOD for a long term chart.

So I check the definitions before I speak....
_
From an auction theory perspective, doji represent indecision on the side of both buyers and sellers. Everyone is equally matched, so the price goes nowhere; buyers and sellers are in a standoff. Some analysts interpret this as a sign of reversal._
*Example of How to Use a Doji *
_ 
The following chart shows a gravestone doji in Cyanotech Corp.'s stock from February, 2018 following a significant high volume uptrend, which could indicate a bearish reversal over the near-term following the breakout. Ref.

_


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

....and then there is this...

_*Doji *

Long-legged doji candles are deemed to be most significant when they occur during a strong uptrend or downtrend. The long-legged doji suggests that the forces of supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and that a trend reversal may occur. This is because equilibrium or indecision means that the price is no longer pushing in the direction it once was. Sentiment may be changing.Ref._

I looked at candlesticks about 15 years ago on another charting forum and eventually came to the conclusion they were not particularly helpful as so many patterns had to have a 'confirmation' the following day and this seemed like nuts. Keep waiting for the following day confirmation long enough and you have a month's worth of chart movement!


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 May 2019)

Ann said:


> I am still working on these candlesticks since I started to think short term. I prefer to use EOD for a long term chart.
> 
> So I check the definitions before I speak....
> _
> ...




these defnitions come and go and usually examined in hindsight, the bars always require indepth look, "indecision" is another word for "balance" ......it's important to note the difference it infers.....players on both sides have indecision and are decisive too, this is always the case, the bar needs to be examined on a volume basis, .. most volume print at the open from pros and then theyre gone but retailers can close out the day and cause a doji, it looks 'indecisive' but does the volume make-up confirm that idea?
..who best benefits from this "look" of indecisiveness.....keep in mind this is a question in real time...rather than seeing a doji in isolation look at it in context...if the doji has other traders "indecisive" does that make you indecisive too?

the context consists of the previous bars, not how they print, what makes them. how the volume transacted, where it transacted in the overall pattern todate, within the trend or within the chop, again, this will open the idea that the doji is in balance, yet, you have no idea of the full intent of the other players without the context of a little more data.....most importantly ideas surrounding doji's n such as singular ideas to act on serve to narrow a traders focus distracting from what's actually going on


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> these defnitions come and go and usually examined in hindsight, the bars always require indepth look, "indecision" is another word for "balance" ......it's important to note the difference it infers.....players on both sides have indecision and are decisive too, this is always the case, the bar needs to be examined on a volume basis, .. most volume print at the open from pros and then theyre gone but retailers can close out the day and cause a doji, it looks 'indecisive' but does the volume make-up confirm that idea?
> ..who best benefits from this "look" of indecisiveness.....keep in mind this is a question in real time...rather than seeing a doji in isolation look at it in context...if the doji has other traders "indecisive" does that make you indecisive too?
> 
> the context consists of the previous bars, not how they print, what makes them. how the volume transacted, where it transacted in the overall pattern todate, within the trend or within the chop, again, this will open the idea that the doji is in balance, yet, you have no idea of the full intent of the other players without the context of a little more data.....most importantly ideas surrounding doji's n such as singular ideas to act on serve to narrow a traders focus distracting from what's actually going on




.....Thanks Joules, I think similar explanations such as these all those years ago and trying to follow the explanations in the books just made me go...meh, I will stay with support/resistance on EOD.
Although I think I like the little 'hammer' at the bottom or top of a price movement. That seems to be a bit of a predictive indicator so far.

Sorry verce, I have taken your TNY way off track.


----------



## tech/a (2 May 2019)

The chart is behaving exactly as expected.
There is nothing usual happening here.

There is no mystery. There is a lot being told in the chart.
But I see people trying to form chart and fundamental
Arguments to suit their own bias.

The bias is clearly bullish.
Every bar
Every snippet of a report.

It is as it is.

I’ll post my chart later


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Another perhaps slightly opposing view.
> 
> My technical view is that it has currently run its race.
> There has been enormous effort to push over $1.20
> ...




These were your bearish thoughts on Monday night, you thought Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday TNY would be under $1.
Tuesday it closed 96c, Wednesday it closed $1 and Thursday it closed $1.04



tech/a said:


> The chart is behaving exactly as expected.
> There is nothing usual happening here.
> 
> There is no mystery. There is a lot being told in the chart.
> ...




So is your chart bullish or bearish?


----------



## verce (2 May 2019)

Thanks @Ann @Joules MM1 and @tech/a 

The challenge in achieving the fabled '100-bagger' is having the mental fortitude and temperament to hold onto your gains. I can point out that a stock is extraordinarily undervalued - but it takes a certain kind of 'risk-on' person to pull the trigger when an opportunity such as this arises. I don't think it can be taught.

Some people like to lock in gains, some fools like me hold on for dear life. I think this is a long-term story unfolding.


----------



## verce (2 May 2019)

The register remains very tight.







I'm very comfortable being invested alongside Rubi Holdings Pty Ltd - the personal investment vehicle of Rich Lister John Rubino.

I think it is going to be very hard to pick up any shares around $1 for much longer.

Someone on that "other forum" found a quote from TNY's Senior Adviser which I had actually missed, but I think provides some good insight:

*"Tinybeans will stand positioned as a unique commercial proposition for brand partners. I have no doubt the next 12 months will see an influx of numerous key partnerships." *

*-Senior Advisor Claudine Patel (former Global Senior Marketing & Innovations Director at Kelloggs - 20 billion USD company)*


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks @Ann @Joules MM1 and @tech/a
> 
> The challenge in achieving the fabled '100-bagger' is having the mental fortitude and temperament to hold onto your gains. I can point out that a stock is extraordinarily undervalued - but it takes a certain kind of 'risk-on' person to pull the trigger when an opportunity such as this arises. I don't think it can be taught.
> 
> Some people like to lock in gains, some fools like me hold on for dear life. I think this is a long-term story unfolding.




We need to find our own 'sweet spot' when we trade, be it long term, short term, in out in out. You have done the hard yards and continue to do them with your research, I have no doubt you will be rewarded.  As the duck said....


tech/a said:


> What your doing is right for you.



I completely agree with him.


----------



## verce (2 May 2019)

You have a guaranteed reservation at the verce-hosted TNY $5 party.


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> The chart is behaving exactly as expected.




that's called bias too, the bias is for price activity to achieve what is perceived to be the correct action within the confines of an idea regardless of construct of that idea

bias is ok

bias is another word for opinion

until price prints, your thinking is front running price, when the print agrees with you it is as you expected or it is not as you expected

while there are orthodox regimes for expectancy they all stem from the same thing which is subjective... subjectivity is ok too otherwise we'd get stuck in a mode of mud


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## verce (2 May 2019)

I honestly feel like the dumbest person in the room right now. You three are way ahead of me when it comes to technical analysis.

All I do is look at shares on issue and market cap, it serves me well about half the time. Rest is due to luck.


----------



## Ann (2 May 2019)

verce said:


> I honestly feel like the dumbest person in the room right now. You three are way ahead of me when it comes to technical analysis.
> 
> All I do is look at shares on issue and market cap, it serves me well about half the time. Rest is due to luck.




It isn't dumb or smart it is how we all look at things. We all do our best to make a good call with whatever tools we feel comfortable using and then a little luck kisses us or not! Never put yourself or your abilities down, others love to do that for us!


----------



## tech/a (2 May 2019)

*Never* under estimate luck.
I have made more money and found
more happiness from pure luck
than *ANYTHING ELSE*.

But I know *EXACTLY* what to do when I find luck or it finds me.
(1) Leverage it and 
(2) Compound it.

I also know exactly what to do if my luck runs out.
(1) Minimize loss.
(2) Make changes.

*NEVER* in *BOTH* cases do ----------- *NOTHING!*

So lets have a look at the analysis as of right now.


----------



## verce (2 May 2019)

Thanks for the chart. I’m going to stay the course and see this through to the bitter end!


----------



## tech/a (2 May 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks for the chart. I’m going to stay the course and see this through to the bitter end!




Many years ago
A mate of mine who worked for a broker was chatting to me
and in passing said
"Ive just bought 100000 DVT.@ 6c

DVT was a tech stock and tech stocks were going off the planet.
I didnt buy any DVT. Davnet

He left 5 mths later to take up a position in Sydney.
From time to time in emails Id ask him when he was going
to sell DVT.

$2.33---$3.70 --- $5.67---$7.35

His response --This will make me a Million!
It reached not much more than $7.35 from memory.

So Id ask---when are you going to sell DVT

$6.90---$5.45---$4.60

One day he called me---I've sold DVT $3.85
$385,000.
and 25 years ago in the Sydney Suburb he was in he could and
DID buy a house he was 26.
The rest is history and he did make his million buy just not with DVT.

OH DVT disappeared and was sold.


----------



## verce (2 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Many years ago
> A mate of mine who worked for a broker was chatting to me
> and in passing said
> "Ive just bought 100000 DVT.@ 6c
> ...




It’s all probably going to end in tears. I can see this falling back quite easily.

But if it goes on to new highs, I’d never forgive myself. Worst comes to worst I break even.


----------



## Ann (3 May 2019)

verce said:


> It’s all probably going to end in tears. I can see this falling back quite easily.
> 
> But if it goes on to new highs, I’d never forgive myself. Worst comes to worst I break even.




I think TNY is getting a little help. As I said in a previous post last night I watched, after the bell at 4pm, TNY was sitting on $1 then at 4:10:57pm, whoosh up it went to $1.04. Frankly I don't think this sort of thing can be charted or FAed. I think it might come down to a faith thing, a belief that a higher power is looking after it! 

Eventually if it doesn't manage to stand on its own two feet then it may go the way of DVT and all the other little pump and dump speccies.

In the meantime......


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 May 2019)

TNY looks bullish to me.  The pattern is similar to Z1P when it was around $2.40.  The pennant/flag segment has the same equal balance of bull/bear volume.  Has low turnover and big spreads though, which makes it hard to get in and out.


----------



## verce (3 May 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> TNY looks bullish to me.  The pattern is similar to Z1P when it was around $2.40.  The pennant/flag segment has the same equal balance of bull/bear volume.  Has low turnover and big spreads though, which makes it hard to get in and out.




Finally - a positive take!


----------



## Ann (3 May 2019)

I just gave this a 5 star because I think it will go up for a while and unless it is $gutted it has an interesting business which I can see growing, especially if they go to China.


----------



## kenny (5 May 2019)

Thanks for the helpful commentary, everyone. I wonder if the chart action reflects the flip flop between bullish FOMO and an inherent difficulty in valuing TNY by the punters like me.

@verce any chance you could bring over your ultimate Guide to TNY here and the KPG Capital report?


----------



## verce (5 May 2019)

kenny said:


> Thanks for the helpful commentary, everyone. I wonder if the chart action reflects the flip flop between bullish FOMO and an inherent difficulty in valuing TNY by the punters like me.
> 
> @verce any chance you could bring over your ultimate Guide to TNY here and the KPG Capital report?




Hi Kenny

Happy to. It might have to wait until tomorrow but no problem at all.

I think I may be the only holder on this forum.


----------



## kenny (6 May 2019)

Thanks verce, I'm not a holder yet and am curious how the report goes about coming to a valuation


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## galumay (7 May 2019)

I have explained my reasons for not being interested in this business, but for those following it, here is a small mention of it from a fund manager I follow. 

https://www.dmxam.com.au/files/DMXCP April 2019 Investor Update.pdf


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## Ann (7 May 2019)

This chart is drawn taking into account the highs and lows of the last few trading sessions in order to draw a chart formation. There is a symmetrical triangle which is regarded as a continuation pattern. In other words if the stock has been going up when this pattern forms, in all likely hood it will continue in the same direction.


----------



## tech/a (7 May 2019)

Worth getting to know your patterns.

Bulkowski is a Leader.

You can spend days on his site and months understanding his research.
Destroys a lot of long held True'isms 

http://thepatternsite.com/BustSymTriangles.html

There are better ways to trade all patterns.


----------



## Ann (7 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Worth getting to know your patterns.
> 
> Bulkowski is a Leader.
> 
> ...




Yes, I would not argue with what Bulkowski says on the short term as he is also taking the highs and lows into account.  He is  looking at a three month chart for his statistics. He is a short term trader with a short term view.

A lot of these patterns evolved from a longer term perspective using only EOD charts. The integrity of patterns tends to strengthen using only EOD. With tiny short term moves, these patterns do tend to fail more often.....so what 'e said! 

Having said that, I drew the chart on the weekend but didn't get around to posting it. So on Monday I was heartened to see the Monday price sitting nicely on the rising support line.


----------



## tech/a (7 May 2019)

Ann

*Any pattern *in any time frame *has a life span*.

After X periods it becomes clear whether the pattern has failed or succeeded.
Their validity is the same regardless of time frame.

A triangle for instance in a 1 hr chart will be pretty clear after breakout up or down
within 10 periods
Same with a Daily chart or weekly chart.(10 periods approx)

Other patterns like a reversing pin bar on PNV will show its intention in 3 periods.
(The Pin bar is On a Daily Chart---yesterday).

You cant expect a pattern to have influence after say 10-20 periods regardless of time frame


----------



## Ann (7 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Ann
> 
> *Any pattern *in any time frame *has a life span*.
> 
> ...




Babe....I just draw the lines and watch the reaction, been doing it for nearly 17 years!


----------



## tech/a (7 May 2019)

Honey......I like to place myself in trades that I can anticipate a likely outcome positive or negative
to maximize my R/R, Been doing it for 27 Years.


----------



## Ann (7 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Honey......I like to place myself in trades that I can anticipate a likely outcome positive or negative
> to maximize my R/R, Been doing it for 27 Years.



I am guessing always short term ...sweety baby darling!  (people will start to talk John! )


----------



## tech/a (7 May 2019)

As an interesting exercise try recording your guesses if in fact they are guesses.
See if they are better than 50/50
By increasing your knowledge in how to anticipate moves on a chart if your
trading in a discretionary manner you should get a far far better result.

As an example lets work on this Triangle. If I were going to trade it it would be a 
daily analysis of the pattern until failure or success. *THEN* when I'm trading it it would 
be daily as a management exercise. *UNTIL *another pattern occurs or the trade fails.

Let them Talk Ann!
They all have an ignore button.


----------



## Ann (7 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> As an example lets work on this Triangle. If I were going to trade it it would be a
> daily analysis of the pattern until failure or success. *THEN* when I'm trading it it would
> be daily as a management exercise. *UNTIL *another pattern occurs or the trade fails.
> 
> ...




Absolutely agree! Don't stick me on ignore, I am teasing you in a gentle way....I need you, I am trying to teach this old dog new short term tricks. You are the short term expert here!


----------



## Ann (7 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> As an example lets work on this Triangle. If I were going to trade it it would be a
> daily analysis of the pattern until failure or success. *THEN* when I'm trading it it would
> be daily as a management exercise. *UNTIL *another pattern occurs or the trade fails.




This is the point of drawing patterns on charts IMO. I don't look at it as a 'predictive' thing but more a 'potential'. If it does a textbook move then it can be a signal to trade, one way or the other. Having said that there have been many a pattern which has given a false signal and then reversed its position. I see this happen more short term than long term.

It is simply an easier way at looking at company prices in a picture from. Before charting I felt slightly exposed to 'experts' opinions. Now I get to give myself advice, I can stuff up as well as any expert! 

I guess the analogy I can give is with a short term pattern it is like turning a tinny around as opposed to an enormous tanker. Longer term patterns tend to be much slower with more room for error, short term patterns can take you out fast! A tidal wave on the seas or the markets can turn everything around fast. So size isn't necessarily a safeguard.


----------



## barney (7 May 2019)

Ann said:


> *Babe*....





tech/a said:


> *Honey*......





Ann said:


> *sweety baby darling*!




Aint Luv grand!


----------



## tech/a (7 May 2019)

Joe did want us all to get on better!


----------



## verce (7 May 2019)

I thought the volume was pretty solid today. A good bounce back to $1.


----------



## Ann (9 May 2019)

Appears to be weakening, the tail has fallen below the rising support, however looking at Twiggs Money flow there doesn't appear to be any mass exodus, so far...


----------



## tech/a (9 May 2019)

Currently a large spread of 4c This is only thinly traded and while there is 
no real demand supply is willing to hold for the moment.
Ive drawn another chart for interest.---sorry Hun!


----------



## barney (9 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Currently a large spread of 4c This is only thinly traded and *while there is no real demand supply is willing to hold for the moment*.







barney said:


> *As long as it trades above 88 cents in the short/medium term* …. Under 88, especially on diminishing Volume will not be ideal!




As per Tech's chart above … that 88 cent area is still where the acid lies.  If the Top 20 stay tight it could be ok but prefer to see the SP consolidate above a buck rather than under a buck.​


----------



## Ann (9 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Currently a large spread of 4c This is only thinly traded and while there is
> no real demand supply is willing to hold for the moment.
> Ive drawn another chart for interest.---sorry Hun!
> 
> ...




Nice chart precious petal!


----------



## barney (9 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Hun*!





Ann said:


> *precious petal*




I'm a sucker for romance


----------



## tech/a (9 May 2019)

Sorry but I’m very happily Married 
I think and certainly hope Ann and
Everyone here takes the banter as 
I’m sure we both intended it to be
Harmless fun .

These days you have to be crystal
Clear.


----------



## Ann (9 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Sorry but I’m very happily Married
> I think and certainly hope Ann and
> Everyone here takes the banter as
> I’m sure we both intended it to be
> ...





...and we can honestly say we have never even PMd each other once in all the years we have been here. We are muckin' around folks...watch out or he might put you on Ignore! Is the Ignore count still two or has it gone up without me noticing?!


----------



## tech/a (9 May 2019)

-2-


----------



## barney (9 May 2019)

All good tech and Anne … we all know its in good humour so please feel free to carry on as is … anyone who possibly missed the tongue in cheek please note that even Obama understands


----------



## HelloU (9 May 2019)

anne and techy sitting in the tree .......... lol

(that was during an interview when he said that he would never in a trillion years invade Pakistan to carry out a hostile armed mission and kill people that lived there)


----------



## Miner (10 May 2019)

barney said:


> All good tech and Anne … we all know its in good humour so please feel free to carry on as is … anyone who possibly missed the tongue in cheek please note that even Obama understands
> 
> View attachment 94501



Barney
You have such a fertile imagination (or effect of pot ??) that companies manufacturing Seasol etc would be out of money. I remember you mentioned to be a musician. I wished you to be in Western Australia where the soil is very alkaline and I have been trying to reduce the pH by adding sulphur for a long time. Have had a long chat with one of the owners of Manutec today and learnt few new things on my gardening.
Just diverting the attention of all folks and returning to the normal business of making money. One thing for sure procrastination in decision making and accept some high risk. Yesterday, my hand was itching to buy HTA after the great fall. But after reading so many articles, my nerve weakened to see HTA shot up by 12.5% today.


----------



## tech/a (10 May 2019)

Miner 
Looking for massive falls that are out of the 
Blue are one of the set ups I look for 

Very very often the next day is an inside or corrective
Bar the very next day. Just have a risk and entry exit 
Plan 

I’ll try to find one and post it up real-time.
Only not today too busy


----------



## barney (10 May 2019)

Miner said:


> You have such a fertile imagination (*or effect of pot* ??) that companies manufacturing Seasol etc would be out of money.




Lol … Definitely not a pot-head Miner …. I did work in a band for a couple of years where the Roadies had bongs for breakfast however …. they were the best Roadies I've ever seen though!

Anyway, back to *TNY* ………… Hopefully it can hold above yesterday's close of 96 cents.


----------



## tech/a (10 May 2019)

*Now you have my attention.
*
Volume is low so I'm mindful of a false
breakout.
This is either a pattern break DOWN
OR Break OUT.

Unfortunately Due to lack of commitment
I expect this to stall.

Yeh I know
Bearish out look again but that's what the analysis says.
If it changes or confirms this mornings Price action I MAY change caps.


----------



## verce (10 May 2019)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/opinion/sunday/chris-hughes-facebook-zuckerberg.html

*It’s Time to Break Up Facebook*

_*"The cost of breaking up Facebook would be next to zero for the government, and lots of people stand to gain economically*. A ban on short-term acquisitions would ensure that competitors, and the investors who take a bet on them, would have the space to flourish. Digital advertisers would suddenly have multiple companies vying for their dollars."_

_"But the biggest winners would be the American people. *Imagine a competitive market in which they could choose among one network that offered higher privacy standards*, another that cost a fee to join but had little advertising and another that would allow users to customize and tweak their feeds as they saw fit. No one knows exactly what Facebook’s competitors would offer to differentiate themselves. That’s exactly the point."

_____________________________
_
My take on all this? Turns out that privacy is important – especially when it comes to family. Tinybeans empowers people with legitimate concerns about entities such as Facebook to take back ownership of their data. Family is arguably the most important thing in our human lives, so it naturally follows that people take this seriously.

_



_
I've previously said that *we are witnessing a momentous shift from traditional social media monopolies to more trustworthy niche providers (such as Tinybeans)*. Similar to how we are also witnessing trust shift from the 'Big Four' banks, VISA & Mastercard to new consumer-friendly brands and services such as Afterpay._







_
People overestimate the power and agility of a generic platform like Facebook, which has already suffered reputational and brand damage. Millennial parents are rightfully concerned about privacy, and nobody wants to overshare on a non-secure network. The user reviews of TNY speak for themselves.

Is there evidence of this? Look at the Net Promoter Scores so far. This is the best tool we have when it comes to gauge the popularity of social media.

* Tinybeans has a Net Promoter Score of 80 while Facebook is at Minus (-) 21.*_









_


----------



## verce (10 May 2019)

*If Life 360 (ASX:360) can IPO today with a market cap of $800 million then TNY can certainly reach $100 million market cap on current metrics.*

I'm more confident than ever now.


----------



## Ann (11 May 2019)

Rightio, I am going to put up two charts today, one is the same one I put up earlier in the week with the symmetrical triangle which is classed as a continuation and so far TNY has been on the rise, so therefore potentially it may rise up from the Symmetrical Triangle. It is teasing us at the moment, a bit below and a bit above the pointy end. Note also there is a rise in the weekly Twiggs money flow, happening in the middle of the pattern, into TNY which is also another bullish signal for me.

The second chart is a chart showing five minute movements throughout the day for six days. This was also traveling in a symmetrical triangle which it has now broken above but has had a retrace to test the area where it broke through the falling overhead resistance. It bounced up off that level. .98c may offer a support level.


----------



## verce (11 May 2019)

Thanks @Ann - I like it when the fundamentals and the technicals align somewhat.


----------



## galumay (11 May 2019)

verce said:


> I like it when the fundamentals...




What fundamentals? (genuinley interested in which fundamental metrics you are referring to, EPS, Free cash flow, ROIC, ROE, Intrinsic value?)



verce said:


> If Life 360 (ASX:360) can IPO today with a market cap of $800 million then TNY can certainly reach $100 million market cap on current metrics.




Just checking for understanding, you do realise market cap is not an indicator of business quality and is basically disconnected from valuation? I presume you realise that the capitalisation of one business is not something that is comparable to another business in terms of value. You can have a wonderful business with a tiny market cap, and a basket case with a huge market cap. Market cap is simply shares on issue x price.


----------



## verce (11 May 2019)

galumay said:


> What fundamentals? (genuinley interested in which fundamental metrics you are referring to, EPS, Free cash flow, ROIC, ROE, Intrinsic value?)
> 
> 
> 
> Just checking for understanding, you do realise market cap is not an indicator of business quality and is basically disconnected from valuation? I presume you realise that the capitalisation of one business is not something that is comparable to another business in terms of value. You can have a wonderful business with a tiny market cap, and a basket case with a huge market cap. Market cap is simply shares on issue x price.




I'm certainly not as smart as you when it comes to these metrics. I recognise and acknowledge that. But I do know what a market cap is. Give me a break here! 

When I say fundamental I look at the story. I'm not really a spreadsheet kind of guy. I just have an instinctive gut feeling about things.

In the nano-cap end of the market in particular, there are lots of companies that are valued higher than TNY despite having zero revenue and inferior growth prospects.

I just see a company getting good reviews and traction globally, and I see future potential. That's all.


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2019)

Verce
You could be right 
Actually I do far less fundamental analysis 
Than anyone here
Zero 
When I saw this thread the tech analysis told its story as of then 
It has ever since 
One day it may mesh with your gut feeling.


----------



## galumay (11 May 2019)

verce said:


> I'm certainly not as smart as you when it comes to these metrics.




Its not about who is smarter - your gains on TNY suggest you are smarter than me in this instance! 

I am just trying to understand better how you came to develop conviction about the business, and because you used the term 'fundamentals' i was wondering what you were basing it on.



verce said:


> When I say fundamental I look at the story. I'm not really a spreadsheet kind of guy. I just have an instinctive gut feeling about things.




...and that cuts to the chase, I would describe you as a narrative investor, when I started out I used to buy businesses based on the narrative, I reckon its cost me more capital than any of my other errors! Now it just may be that I am not cut out to be a 'narrative investor', maybe its possible to make money, consistently over the long term that way, but its not in my circle of competence!



verce said:


> In the nano-cap end of the market in particular, there are lots of companies that are valued higher than TNY despite having zero revenue and inferior growth prospects.




Maybe, maybe not, with these sort of businesses you are really relying on totally inaccurate forecasts, they all make lofty claims for growth, market potential, market share, customer retention, ARRs, and various other forward looking metrics. I wouldn't be influenced by the relative pricing too much, the market is very fickle and volatile in that space, your conviction derived from the narrative is probably more valuable in deciding whether to continue to hold or not. 

Along with your conviction in the narrative, keep an eye on their narrative, each 4C go back and compare the results to the previous one and what they said was going to happen - especially the "Estimated Cash Outflows for the Next Quarter", but also revenue growth and cost reduction.

Any misstep will be punished by the market because the business is currently priced for perfection. (my really rough, mental check of DCF valuation is to reverse engineer the current share price, on that basis TNY is valued for earnings a bit over $3m NPAT - so more than the current total revenue run rate based on the last 4C.) 

I dont think its an awful business, just not for me, and certainly not at current prices, but I know a couple of fundamental investors I respect, have taken small postions in TNY. 

Of course none of this is advice, nor suggesting i have any special insight, its just sharing how I think about businesses and the approach I use to try to value them. It helps me to communicate my thinking, and maybe you or some others find it of some interest.


----------



## verce (11 May 2019)

Thanks @galumay great points


----------



## verce (12 May 2019)

*Latest information on cashflow breakeven progress:*





*Revenue per active user grew to $2.48 (annualized) from $1.31 twelve months prior, an increase of 89% *






*Just for fun - what is Facebook's annualized revenue per user?*





https://www.statista.com/statistics/234056/facebooks-average-advertising-revenue-per-user/

*And other competitors?
*





*Not bad for 33 million AUD market cap! *


----------



## verce (12 May 2019)

For you chartists and technical analysts out there - apparently a Golden Cross has been identified, which means a golden bull run (maybe).


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## tech/a (12 May 2019)

It’s simply a cross of fast and slow moving averages.
Sadly it can cross back


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## Ann (12 May 2019)

verce said:


> For you chartists and technical analysts out there - apparently a Golden Cross has been identified, which means a golden bull run (maybe).



That happened ages ago verce. It is generally regarded as a cross up of the 50dma above the 200dma which was around March 21st. I looked at a shorter term of 5 over 15, that doesn't work either. 21 over 50 was also ages ago. Not sure what they are looking at. I will do a chart and show you the 50 over 200 golden cross on TNY. Old news.


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## verce (12 May 2019)

Thanks @Ann - didn't realise. I was actually just going by what someone said on the other mainstream forum.


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## Ann (13 May 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks @Ann - didn't realise. I was actually just going by what someone said on the other mainstream forum.




The penny finally dropped verce, I need to spend more time on chart forums, I am getting rusty! 

The golden cross they were talking about would be the point where the two lines of the symmetrical triangle cross over. I have never heard it called this but I wouldn't be surprised if this is  a term chartists on chart forums would use these days. I don't extend my pattern lines, I probably should, good reminder, thank you for the unintended hint! 

This is last Friday's chart with those symmetrical triangle lines extended.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Hi Ann, i have read that over the long term golden crosses as indicators don't work. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don't, so which is it now. Time will only tell


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann now you have noticed a golden cross, does it affect your stop position or exit trigger?


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## tech/a (13 May 2019)

Ann said:


> The penny finally dropped verce, I need to spend more time on chart forums, I am getting rusty!
> 
> The golden cross they were talking about would be the point where the two lines of the symmetrical triangle cross over. I have never heard it called this but I wouldn't be surprised if this is  a term chartists on chart forums would use these days. I don't extend my pattern lines, I probably should, good reminder, thank you for the unintended hint!
> 
> ...




Sounds like rubbish to me.
Where do you draw the lines of the triangle?






Seriously there are people trying to place anything they can 
find as a positive spin to support their bias.
So would you or anyone looking at this thread think now is
a good time to buy?


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Hi Ann, i have read that over the long term golden crosses as indicators don't work. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don't, so which is it now. Time will only tell




G'day willoneau
I look at a number of indicators on a chart. I don't think a single indicator is sufficient. If the money flow is positive and the PVI and NVI are positive I am more likely to be bullish on the outcome of something like a 'golden cross' or any potentially bullish chart shape. I also look at the number of buyers to sellers but that is not related to reading a chart, simply an indicator of supply and demand. And yes time is the best test of an outcome! 



willoneau said:


> Ann now you have noticed a golden cross, does it affect your stop position or exit trigger?




I don't hold TNY.  I wanted to keep a less biased view, I have always held a more bullish than bearish bias from the start but without the complication of holding. If I held I would feel like I was ramping it, mind you I have been tempted to buy!


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann i think you need to be in the game and not on the sideline shouting at everyone.
Can get quite confusing for those in the game.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann i would like to see how you trade live, you thoughts and trade management as it happened.


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Sounds like rubbish to me.
> Where do you draw the lines of the triangle?




This would depend on whether you are using EOD or High/Lows. If you are drawing on high/lows you would draw from the lowest price paid for the day for the support and the highest price of the day for the resistance. As we are looking at this on a very short term basis then the H/L is a better choice for a chart shape. For longer term charts, EOD is clearer and crisper. The drawing of a shape is an art like any other, it is what the eye beholds. I see shapes on charts long before I commit a line to a chart. I am currently flicking through dozens of US charts for Peter, I can see the shapes within seconds without having to draw them.

I drew a more Bullish symmetrical triangle, you drew a bearish Descending Triangle for TNY. Either can be a valid chart shape for this stock.
One then needs to look at the money flow is it rising? On the weekly it is, on the daily it is leveling off. Then looking at the PVI (the prat meter) it is rising. The NVI (smart money) it is leveling off.



tech/a said:


> Seriously there are people trying to place anything they can
> find as a positive spin to support their bias.
> So would you or anyone looking at this thread think now is
> a good time to buy?




This is the BIG question everyone asks for any stock they are planning to buy "is it a good time to buy?" We all have to make that decision any time we enter a trade. We need to have a bias before a choice can be made.
That is the reason I like to chart as I can see on Friday it was at what appeared to be a cross roads (golden cross as it was called) on the daily chart. Will it take the high road or will it fail the symmetrical triangle?  We will see that at the end of today more than likely. This may be a positive sign for someone looking to enter a trade for TNY. A fail may see it as a signal to exit. That again would need to be a personal decision of bias.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

But Ann the question was would you buy it now?
are you confident in the way you interpret the chart to buy it now?


----------



## tech/a (13 May 2019)

*Rubbish* meaning Golden X

Lines are in the eye of the beholder.
As are triangles and patterns.

An X itself is nothing more than an intersection
and can be of anything and any color you want
to label it--golden does sound better than black

Flicking through charts is Mandatory for chartists.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Rubbish* meaning Golden X
> 
> Lines are in the eye of the beholder.
> As are triangles and patterns.
> ...



 Flicking through charts saying what you think is fun .
but at least when you say it you tell us exactly were you would buy were you would place your risk (stop) and even were you might get out.
and why you would do it.


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Ann i think you need to be in the game and not on the sideline shouting at everyone.
> Can get quite confusing for those in the game




I wasn't aware I was shouting! I thought I was just offering a chart opinion for what I see. Sorry folks, will try to keep my voice down in future.



willoneau said:


> Ann i would like to see how you trade live, you thoughts and trade management as it happened.




I find a stock I like, look at my indicators, look closely at the stock and what they do, I draw up support and resistance and any shapes, once it breaks above a resistance I enter. As it rises I draw support lines under it if it is moving fast, or if it is slower I use a moving average. If it breaks below support or MA I am out. Nothing fancy!


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann said:


> I wasn't aware I was shouting! I thought I was just offering a chart opinion for what I see. Sorry folks, will try to keep my voice down in future.
> 
> 
> 
> I find a stock I like, look at my indicators, look closely at the stock and what they do, I draw up support and resistance and any shapes, once it breaks above a resistance I enter. As it rises I draw support lines under it if it is moving fast, or if it is slower I use a moving average. If it breaks below support or MA I am out. Nothing fancy!



game metaphor, not you personally unless you were watching a game you loved and couldn't help yourself.


----------



## tech/a (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Flicking through charts saying what you think is fun .
> but at least when you say it you tell us exactly were you would buy were you would place your risk (stop) and even were you might get out.
> and why you would do it.




I have asked Ann before but her response was lets say Obtuse.
I've been waiting for 5 charts to watch her analysis being traded
for sometime now.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

find a stock I like, look at my indicators, look closely at the stock and what they do, I draw up support and resistance and any shapes, once it breaks above a resistance I enter. As it rises I draw support lines under it if it is moving fast, or if it is slower I use a moving average. If it breaks below support or MA I am out. Nothing fancy! 
would be more interesting to see were you enter and exit and why , not trying to find out your system as you said it's nothing fancy just interested in how you think.


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> An X itself is nothing more than an intersection
> and can be of anything and any color you want
> to label it--golden does sound better than black




I only called it that in response to what verce was talking about. I had only heard 'golden cross' referred to with the 50/200ma cross. Then it occurred to me it may have meant the cross of the symmetrical triangle which I guess another chartist had drawn on the same lines as I had and called it a 'golden cross' I prefer the term cross roads personally but that was not the term verce had mentioned, it was merely a clarification for verce. 



willoneau said:


> But Ann the question was would you buy it now?
> are you confident in the way you interpret the chart to buy it now?




No, I wouldn't buy until it has cleared the resistance line at $1.16


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

No, I wouldn't buy until it has cleared the resistance line at $1.16[/QUOTE]
So you would buy at $1.16?
were would you put your stop?, $0.90?


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> So you would buy at $1.16?
> were would you put your stop?, $0.90?



No it would need to clear $1.16, that is the resistance line.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann said:


> No it would need to clear $1.16, that is the resistance line.



Sooooo , $1.165?
would it be intra-day or a close above that line maybe?
would the close be on daily bar , weekly bar or monthly bar?


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

Possibly.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann can you see were i am leading?


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## Ann (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Ann can you see were i am leading?




A pissing competition? I don't have a dick so that precludes me from the competition. There are enough pissing comps going on here already!


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann said:


> A pissing competition? I don't have a dick so that precludes me from the competition. There are enough pissing comps going on here already!



Nooo not at all, but (are you saying you don't pee? smiles)
What i was was trying to convey was do you want to be a good chartist?
or a good trader? you can be both but not if you spend all your energy being a good chartist.
imho.
ps, i struggle to pee if someone is watching.


----------



## tech/a (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Ann can you see were i am leading?




*Let me have a crack*

Analysis for the sake of analysis has no future.
Analysis with practical application is what we all
strive for in all forms of analysis.

Could be and perhaps is simply hesitation and can be doubt 
in what we we believe we are seeing and its INTERPRETATION.

Ann I like you and your passion but rather than sit on the
fence make calls. You'll be wrong --- we all get it wrong

Its what we do when we get it *RIGHT* and *WRONG * that will
determine our profit.

Willoneau and others wont get an idea of how you approach
your trading when you don't show it.

You once mentioned nearly 100% win rate---That got my attention!
Ive never seen it still havent seen it and want to see it!

Thats not a pissing comp thats a genuine hope that I can see something
shown here that I think is impossible. 

Its been done before TRADER GIRL opened my eyes a few years ago.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/day-trading-futures.22820/


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Let me have a crack*
> 
> Analysis for the sake of analysis has no future.
> Analysis with practical application is what we all
> ...



Thanx for that link Tech/a will look forward to reading all 40 pages, only wish i could have then when i was trading the SPI.


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> What i was was trying to convey was do you want to be a good chartist?
> or a good trader? you can be both but not if you spend all your energy being a good chartist.
> imho.




Strange thing to say! No way would I make a trade without referring to a chart. Never considered them to be mutually exclusive.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann said:


> Strange thing to say! No way would I make a trade without referring to a chart. Never considered them to be mutually exclusive.



there are a lot of people that give advice about charts but never trade themselves.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

there was a thread on Adam Khoo i read that was very interesting.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/piranha-profits-adam-khoo-trading-system.33942/


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Analysis for the sake of analysis has no future.
> Analysis with practical application is what we all
> strive for in all forms of analysis.



Correct! I use TA to trade and would never place a trade without looking at a chart. 



tech/a said:


> Ann I like you and your passion but rather than sit on the
> fence make calls. You'll be wrong --- we all get it wrong



I don't sit on the fence if I have a particular opinion. I often make calls of when I think there is support or resistance on a chart, that is a call, I have called the price of a measured move in the past. I will suggest a chart is bullish or bearish. I chart lots of stocks and commodities here when I have time. Sometimes I am right sometimes I am wrong.



tech/a said:


> Willoneau and others wont get an idea of how you approach
> your trading when you don't show it.



Tough! Get it from someone else who cares!  This isn't about willoneau or anyone else, it is entirely for _my own _pleasure and financial benefit. 



tech/a said:


> You once mentioned nearly 100% win rate---That got my attention!
> Ive never seen it still havent seen it and want to see it!



Long term is a very forgiving way to invest. Not jumping in and out of stocks gives you a far greater chance of success. Buying into a rising market after a massive dump is also another good way of doing it. Buy into quality stocks which have been oversold is also a good way to go. Stocks with dividends, also a good way if a stock veers sideways for a while, it pays you a return, if you have the divies as a DRP you get compounding happening on top of it all. Long term is almost foolproof if you time it right. Had a great run from 2003 and then I got closed out around 2007. Nice run from 2012 until I closed myself out in 2017 for personal reasons.



tech/a said:


> Thats not a pissing comp thats a genuine hope that I can see something
> shown here that I think is impossible.




Like I will show you an actual stock I am buying into and at what price and when I exit that stock and at what price? Will never happen.  I buy the actual stock in my name, which everyone knows is Ann. I am then on the stock register which anyone can access and find my full name and home address, no thanks! I rarely post against one of my holdings on the forum, if at any time I do for some reason I declare my holding privately to Joe.



tech/a said:


> Its been done before TRADER GIRL opened my eyes a few years ago.



Not surprised with an avi like that. Umm where is she now or was it a bloke trying to get your attention? Five months and 394 odd posts, which I read some before they became impossibly boring.  Perhaps she just lost her money and buggered off! 



willoneau said:


> there are a lot of people that give advice about charts but never trade themselves.



Who would they be? From my experience all the people I know who are charting, also trade. But frankly I don't care if people just want to do something for the sake of it. If they are enjoying themselves, great! They may post a chart for something I might like to watch for a trade, so they haven't wasted their time and it may benefit me.

Now fellas, go fcuk off and harass someone else for a change!


----------



## verce (13 May 2019)

Seriously, leave @Ann alone. At least she is contributing valuable information and not acting with an agenda, which is more than I can say for some posters here (I've been very patient with some of you).

Some people are clearly just determined to dislike the company. It's getting quite transparent the more I read.

My thoughts on today:

This announcement certainly took me by surprise - and the market from the looks of it! I think it will take a few days for people to process the true value on offer here.

In the course of my research, it was readily apparent that 'big data' and advanced data analytics are what drive takeovers in the tech space. Tinybeans are now building out their competitive moat, and this already looks to be very lucrative - *"powerful results"* already.

Combine this with the global content platform they launched on 26/04/19, and it's a winning formula. Competitors will find it hard to break into this space.

When I read this line, I was instantly convinced of at least a 100 million AUD market cap fair valuation:

*"Commercial sales creating new revenue streams are expected to commence in FY20."*

If people actually followed through with the logical implications of this announcement - with the big name brands that are already on-board the platform (Lego etc.) - this would be trading at $1.50 right now.

I followed this back when it was in the 20 cent range - and it took a while before the market woke up. But that all changed in just one day. I expect a similar realisation to occur in the near future and wouldn't be surprised to see this get to $2 or $3 in the blink of an eye. That is the power of so few shares on issue.

I'm even more bullish today than ever before. Long-term hold validated.


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

Sorry verce, we got seriously off topic, let's see how TNY went today...Ooops had a little fall today, nothing too serious, down 1.48% to a dollar. The $1 level seems to be developing into a little bit of a support, let's see!


----------



## tech/a (13 May 2019)

Crystal clear Ann
For the second time.

Like Will I’m certain you don’t trade
That’s fine.


----------



## Ann (13 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Crystal clear Ann
> For the second time.
> 
> Like Will I’m certain you don’t trade
> That’s fine.




That's fine Tech/a. I really don't care what anyone thinks. Everyone can make their own assessment about others. If that makes you feel better to believe I don't trade then, please feel free to believe.


----------



## tech/a (13 May 2019)

Your analysis speaks louder than you do.

Carry on it’s a ——- long road.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Ann i'm sorry if i made you feel harassed i'll not bother any more.


----------



## galumay (13 May 2019)

verce said:


> I'm even more bullish today than ever before.




Honestly, I think that just shows how emotionally invested you are in the narrative. A couple of investors I know who had dipped their toes in TNY, sold out today as soon as they saw the announcement. They saw it as reflecting very poorly on management and filled with hyped up catch phrases of an advertising company trying to pivot.


----------



## verce (13 May 2019)

galumay said:


> Honestly, I think that just shows how emotionally invested you are in the narrative. A couple of investors I know who had dipped their toes in TNY, sold out today as soon as they saw the announcement. They saw it as reflecting very poorly on management and filled with hyped up catch phrases of an advertising company trying to pivot.




Agree to disagree here.


----------



## galumay (13 May 2019)

verce said:


> When I read this line, I was instantly convinced of at least a 100 million AUD market cap fair valuation:




Honestly, thats insane, (not to say it wont get to that sort of share price), a share price of around $3 would imply earnings of around $10m.


----------



## verce (13 May 2019)

galumay said:


> Honestly, thats insane, (not to say it wont get to that sort of share price), a share price of around $3 would imply earnings of around $10m.




How do you explain something like YOJ or NUH then?

Tech company valuations work differently. I'm sorry, that's just the way it is. Uber is still making a loss, for example.


----------



## galumay (13 May 2019)

verce said:


> Tech company valuations work differently.




LOL!! The old "its different this time" trope. 

Well lets see, I dont think it is, sooner or later there is no other valuation than the sum of your future cash flows discounted back to present value. When the hype and speculation ends, thats what drives investment pricing. 

Uber is a terrible example, precisely because its still making a massive loss, with no path to profitability and a broken business model. If you think its share price somehow reflects its value then buy it, I would be looking to short it if anything. 

Tech company valuations dont work differently, its just that in the late stage of a long bull market, fuelled by the success of a few of these type of businesses, there has been a structural disconnection between price and value by a market fuelled with FOMO and hype. 

No doubt higher multiples are warranted for tech companies with very low capital costs and very fast growth, but a lot of the prices imply infinite growth and fixed, high margins into the distant future with perfect execution by management at every step - thats a fantasy future.

As I said earlier, its not improbable in this market that TNY could run up to $3 in price, but to suggest it is "fair valuation" requires some quantifiable valuation to support your claim. What is the return on invested capital, or earnings or free cash flow that would make it "fair value" at $3? Its clearly not "fair value" at $1 let alone $2 or $3.

If what you really mean is that you think the share price could be $3 regardless of valuation metrics, then honestly, you should just say so. 

I would actually agree with you, there is a possibility that the price will be $3. The 'greater fool' theory has supported plenty of high prices for all sorts of assets over the history of markets.

I hope for your sake the price does keep going up and you get out at some point and make a lot of money, your level of conviction in the narrative deserves that at least!


----------



## verce (13 May 2019)

I can tell I’m not going to change your mind on anything. It is what it is. I see this as an investable proposition. Let’s see how the rest of the year unfolds. They could get to cashflow positive soon.


----------



## galumay (13 May 2019)

verce said:


> I can tell I’m not going to change your mind on anything




I am not trying to change yours, just making some friendly challenges to your claims! 

I will leave you in peace with TNY, I think we have probably created enough words for anyone interested in the business to keep them occupied for an hour or two!

I should bugger off and spend more time talking about businesses I am actually interested in!


----------



## Ann (14 May 2019)

Good morning verce, I read the notice from yesterday and perhaps I am misreading it but it disquieted me. It read like there is going to be an AI trawling everyone's actions, buying habits and activities. They say everyone's' information is private, perhaps identifying elements of the people are private but certainly not what is on their space. They are going to sell the info to big business as I understand it. I had planned to buy this for my daughter when she has her children but I have gone off the idea now, until I hear further about TNY.

If I had bought in earlier, I think I would take profits now. As Peter2 says, you can always buy back in if you are wrong.

The chart saw a slide back below the short term rising support line coming from the cross at the symmetrical point. It may rise up again, it is still above the 98c support line I identified on the 5 minute chart a number of posts back now!

Call it a gut feeling but profits in the bank can be a sweet thing. However I could be very wrong as I always say, so do your own assessments folks!

Edit: I meant to add the Twiggs money flow is falling and the number of buyers to sellers has closed a bit 29 buyers to 24 sellers.


----------



## tech/a (14 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Never* under estimate luck.
> I have made more money and found
> more happiness from pure luck
> than *ANYTHING ELSE*.
> ...



`

I've decided to (If the setup arises) to put some skin in the game.
This chart mark up tells me what I'm looking for to buy in.


----------



## verce (14 May 2019)

If Life 360 can IPO just recently at 700 million market cap with a 2018 net loss of around 20 million, then TNY which is nearly cashflow positive can get to 100m market cap.

That is triple the current price so around $3.


----------



## barney (14 May 2019)

For what its worth …… I like the chart (especially after today) …… I personally don't trade breakouts and generally only trade penny Stocks (but I always like seeing other Punters make a few bob if possible)

With that in mind, if this behaves and nudges back above $1.10  … I would expect $1.40 within a shortish time frame ….

That assessment is based on my super secret algorithmic percentage adjusted indicator which is at least 99% accurate and has never lost in the last 5 years ……. (sorry, correction …. the last 5 weeks) … apart from that 1 (maybe 2) bad trades I made last week, so maybe 5 days


----------



## verce (14 May 2019)

I can only imagine that Thursday brings positive news and things are going better than expected - otherwise there would be no need to suddenly host a conference call.


----------



## Ann (15 May 2019)

Goodness how good does it feel to be wrong?! 
Clearly the market liked what it saw in the notice, FA is not my strong point as I may have mentioned before.....What do we see on the chart today?
Well TNY is getting a bit older so I can do an End of Day chart, my fave.

I see what is generally regarded as a bearish Descending Triangle. Will it be bearish for TNY or simply the first tread on the 'stairway to heaven'! 

Why do I think verce is going to knock me off the top spot in the comp in the very near future?


----------



## verce (15 May 2019)

Love your work @Ann !


----------



## verce (15 May 2019)

Can anyone provide any thoughts on today's strengths?


----------



## tech/a (16 May 2019)

Come on you guys wheres the excitement!!!
*Up 10%.*


----------



## tech/a (16 May 2019)

The Duck has entered TNY. $1.20.
Stop $1.08


----------



## tech/a (16 May 2019)




----------



## barney (16 May 2019)

barney said:


> For what its worth …… I like the chart.
> With that in mind, *if this behaves and nudges back above $1.10  … I would expect $1.40 within a shortish time frame* …. That assessment is based on my super secret algorithmic percentage adjusted indicator




Almost ….. High of $1.385 today …. Who says technical analysis doesn't work


----------



## barney (16 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> The Duck has entered TNY. $1.20.
> Stop $1.08




I thought you might buy that opening gap once it jumped a buck 10 Tech?


----------



## barney (16 May 2019)

Now, more importantly … about that booze up @verce  …… I like Bourbon and coke (diet of course … I'm watching my weight … increase ….

Well done ….You should be feeling pretty chuffed


----------



## verce (16 May 2019)

Hi all

Really good volume today. Still holding. No selling from me.


----------



## barney (16 May 2019)

verce said:


> Hi all
> 
> Really good volume today. Still holding. No selling from me.




Absolutely not!!


----------



## verce (16 May 2019)

Can we get an updated chart or Twiggs money flow from anyone?

Cheers


----------



## verce (16 May 2019)

https://www.investsmart.com.au/investment-news/the-family-friendly-alternative-tinybeans/144828

Interview with Alan Kohler for anyone interested.


----------



## Knobby22 (16 May 2019)

verce said:


> https://www.investsmart.com.au/investment-news/the-family-friendly-alternative-tinybeans/144828
> 
> Interview with Alan Kohler for anyone interested.



Have to unlock it to see. 
Any interesting points made?


----------



## barney (16 May 2019)

verce said:


> Can we get an updated chart or Twiggs money flow from anyone?
> 
> Cheers




Not really into Twiggs …. however I do like to muse

The Chart is a bit messy …. but so is my Office

A buck 18 is excellent … .even a buck 15 is fine.    

Back under the gap open price ($1.13) not what we want ….. but for longer term millionaires, a few months is no big deal


----------



## verce (16 May 2019)

barney said:


> Not really into Twiggs …. however I do like to muse
> 
> The Chart is a bit messy …. but so is my Office
> 
> ...




I have no idea what is going on here but I love it nonetheless!


----------



## verce (16 May 2019)

I absolutely love the idea that we each get to own a piece of a technology company in New York that is about to become cash-flow positive, and can rely purely on its own income to fund operations for just a measly ~40m AUD market cap. With massive potential for scaling profits in the future.

If you are fortunate enough to have shares in this company, you are in a very exclusive club indeed!


----------



## verce (17 May 2019)

Holding up well today. I feel like the Twiggs Money Flow would be positive now.


----------



## tech/a (17 May 2019)

Being smashed around by day traders
Pretty volatile.
Has dropped back 60% of today's move.
Opportunists making a quick buck.

https://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/twiggs_money_flow.php

Thought you may like to read up on the Indicator.
Personally with a stock that behaves like this 
anything with a time period average is pretty useless in my
personal view.


----------



## verce (17 May 2019)

Thanks, a bit out of my circle of competence.


----------



## verce (18 May 2019)

Where did everyone go?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 May 2019)

verce said:


> Where did everyone go?



Are you going to take some profits around $1.62 (looks like it will happen) or going for a long term hold?


----------



## barney (18 May 2019)

verce said:


> Holding up well today. I feel like the Twiggs Money Flow would be positive now.




As tech suggests, Twiggs is probably not going to give much idea in assessing what's happening here.

More importantly, a lot of todays Volume (all the circles) traded late and all at the closing price of $1.40 which puts a Bullish tone into the days gyrations …. $1.40 region will need to generate into support over the next few days for confirmation of course.

An updated Substantial Holder announcement or a Top Twenty update showing accumulation from the rank and file holders would give the current move extra clout.  Either way, there is still interest at these higher levels which is positive till proven otherwise. 

Certainly been a stellar move so far


----------



## verce (18 May 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Are you going to take some profits around $1.62 (looks like it will happen) or going for a long term hold?




I’m more inclined to hold long term and that was always my plan. I’m a strong believer in letting your winners run when you find them.

No need to rip out the flowers and water the weeds!

Things have only gotten fundamentally stronger with the recent announcement of machine learning and big data, while still respecting the Tinybeans promise of privacy.

I think it is an exciting time to be a holder. You don’t often see companies like this with huge potential for scale on the cusp of profitability for a sub 50m market cap.


----------



## verce (18 May 2019)

barney said:


> As tech suggests, Twiggs is probably not going to give much idea in assessing what's happening here.
> 
> More importantly, a lot of todays Volume (all the circles) traded late and all at the closing price of $1.40 which puts a Bullish tone into the days gyrations …. $1.40 region will need to generate into support over the next few days for confirmation of course.
> 
> ...




Can you please clarify what you mean by updated Top 20 showing accumulation from rank and file?

Am I correct in assuming that it is a good thing if the Top 20 have not changed?

Cheers @barney


----------



## barney (18 May 2019)

verce said:


> Can you please clarify what you mean by updated Top 20 showing accumulation




Yeah no worries Verce …… The Top 4 Holders of TNY hold 50% of the Co. and the Top 20 hold over 75% as you have pointed out.

If any of these chaps/companies have actually been purchasing more on Market as the price has been rising, that would be a massive vote of confidence and good news. 

If any of the Major Shareholders have been buying, it should be released as a change in substantial holding announcement which would be a statement to the Market that things are traveling well.

If the Top 20 haven't been buying but simply holding, then all the recent heavy lifting is being done by New Players or Traders …..

This is still fine … but the preference for you as a longer term holder would be for "new investors" to be taking a stake in the Co.  and the day/short term traders to be "helping" the price along as part of the process.


----------



## barney (18 May 2019)

All that aside … in the end, the Company's share price will eventually reflect what they are worth.  At the Spec end of the market, stock prices can often get inflated and overshoot their value (at a particular point in time) ……

If TNY aren't making "X" amount of revenue compared to their market cap, there will be a time when the share price will likely stall or retreat …..

If you are a long term holder … you may just wear it and ride the roller coaster (its a high quality roller coaster at the moment

If you are a medium term investor … you may take some profit off the table as @Gringotts Bank suggested as a possibility.

Short term "investors" are great for spiking the share price around and can sometimes fool medium/ long termers into buying when they should be selling … or selling when they should be buying lol


You are in an enviable position of holding a nice profit with a Co. that looks like its on the move and has a small Market cap with a tightly held register … lots of positives …. How you play it from here only you can decide ….


----------



## verce (18 May 2019)

Thank you sir! Some very good points to consider.


----------



## verce (18 May 2019)

TNY apparently heading towards a price target of *$1.93
*


----------



## tech/a (18 May 2019)

???
Random line drawing


----------



## verce (18 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> ???
> Random line drawing




Sourced from a respected technical analyst on HotCopper


----------



## tech/a (18 May 2019)

Shows the quality of HC


----------



## verce (18 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Shows the quality of HC


----------



## verce (19 May 2019)

kenny said:


> Thanks for the helpful commentary, everyone. I wonder if the chart action reflects the flip flop between bullish FOMO and an inherent difficulty in valuing TNY by the punters like me.
> 
> @verce any chance you could bring over your ultimate Guide to TNY here and the KPG Capital report?




https://tinybeans.com/documents/research-reports/KPG Capital - TNY Research - April 2019.pdf

*(KPG Capital - $2.56 AUD price target.)

Verce's Ultimate Guide to TNY
*
I've been tracking the rollout and uptake of the app each time it is updated on iOS (which is quite frequently) - and while it's clear they are doing very well in the US - this is really only the beginning of their market penetration.

There is a high volume of traffic through the website and the app and it has all been via word of mouth and positive reviews (which is why they are closing revenue contracts with companies like Lego, Macmillan Books, Pottery Barn, Scholastic, Canon, Walt Disney, Walmart and Nike).

Chairman John Dougall said in his last letter to shareholders that he has personally taken several technologies _"from zero to over $100,000,000 per annum. I believe that the Tinybeans offering has global potential."_

I'm inclined to agree with his assessment of TNY’s global potential just by looking at the stats. Here's a cut from earlier this year (TNY in blue is compared to its next closest competitor Lifecake in red, who was actually acquired by Canon – yes taken over by the multi-billion dollar Japanese printer company Canon)*. *Lifecake did not have advanced capabilities such as machine learning or big data analysis to generate unique insights into the millennial demographic.*








*

During my research I found out that Google (yes, that Google) offer Tinybeans Premium Subscriptions for free for the first year as a perk to their US employees. I thought that was pretty neat. More recently, a former CEO of Yahoo and senior executive at Google has raved about the Tinybeans app in an interview.



Now keep in mind TNY haven't even officially begun to look at countries outside the United States -_ "our current focus is on the 35 million young families in the USA. We’ll look at other markets once we capitalise on the significant potential of the US"_ - but it's already gaining viral traction in other nations due to the unique privacy proposition and decline of Facebook.*




*

Turns out that privacy is important – especially when it comes to family. Tinybeans empowers people with legitimate concerns about entities such as Facebook to take back ownership of their data. Family is arguably the most important thing in our human lives, so it naturally follows that people take this seriously.

I've previously said that we are witnessing a momentous shift from traditional social media monopolies to more trustworthy niche providers (such as Tinybeans). Similar to how we are also witnessing trust shift from the 'Big Four' banks, VISA & Mastercard to new consumer-friendly brands and services such as Afterpay.

People overestimate the power and agility of a generic platform like Facebook, which has already suffered reputational and brand damage. Millennial parents are rightfully concerned about privacy, and nobody wants to overshare on a non-secure network. The user reviews of TNY speak for themselves.

Is there evidence of this? Look at the Net Promoter Scores so far. This is the best tool we have when it comes to social media to gauge the loyalty towards and popularity of a platform.

Tinybeans has a Net Promoter Score of +80.






What does Facebook have? I’m glad you asked… MINUS 21






Now some of you are probably thinking – how long can people possibly keep using this app? Well, there are ~131 million children born each year and plenty more parents to come in the future. TNY has very high retention rates for users compared to social media platform averages. User acquisition has predominantly been through word of mouth referrals.*





*
There is potential and scope to expand the platform to focus not just on infants – but tracking the entire journey of the early life of a child.*





*
Once a customer signs up, the brand loyalty is very high. Over 90% of Tinybeans members would purchase a product or service that Tinybeans recommends. It has the first touch of the millennial parent demographic (much like Afterpay) and these people are just coming into their prime income-earning years. That means more dollars across the board. The 'special event' sales for brands reminds me of the Afterpay "Afteryay Day" kind of deal. Here is an example of their e-commerce potential.*
*
*
*
*
*
The new content platform combined with machine learning that was just announced further validates TNY as the number one repository in the world for parents and families to consume content (and targeted advertising). In the course of my research, it was readily apparent that 'big data' and advanced data analytics are what drive takeovers in the tech space. Tinybeans are now building out their competitive moat, and this already looks to be very lucrative - *"powerful results"* already.

Combine this with the global content platform they launched on 26/04/19, and it's a winning formula. Competitors will find it hard to break into this space.

At ~45 million AUD market cap, this is still very much undervalued. Tech company valuations work a bit differently to conventional stocks most people are used to. Social media networks, in particular, derive their value from the size of the network. Given the highly targeted nature of the app to the lucrative millenial parent demographic, the value of each user is probably significantly higher than comparative generic social media companies.

Metcalfes Law would dictate that if the number of users in a network doubles (which it has after reaching 3 million users since IPO) then the value of said network actually goes up by quadruple. Therefore, TNY should be trading at four times its 2017 valuation - or a price target of around $4 AUD per share.






Even if you ignore this, when you look at other social media companies, TNY remains severely undervalued and a very compelling investment proposition. I note with interest that Pinterest just IPO'd in the United States @ 10 billion USD. Need I say more?

Most people seem to overlook that TNY since IPO has tripled the users; built out a world-class team; reduced costs across the board; signed new partners like Disney and Lego; increased revenues; and accumulated over 40,000 5-star ratings on the App Store.

Now imagine if they switched on their marketing efforts for mainland Europe or Asia? That growth would be HUGE. And I dare say families in Europe and Asia are at least as invested - if not more so - in recording and maintaining a family journal that functions as a secure, digital keepsake. A digital keepsake that will never fade away like an old photo book. Do not underestimate the tremendous power of keeping a family history and heritage. It's part of the human experience.

Finally, TNY have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to turning operating cash flow positive during calendar year 2019 and appear very much on track to achieve this based on the last few quarterlies.










You would be a fool to sell at this current inflection point - just as the company is about to reach critical mass and on the cusp of profitability. Shares will be challenging to acquire from here on out with the Top 20 holding 75% of the 33 million share on issue.


----------



## verce (19 May 2019)




----------



## Ann (19 May 2019)

Here you go verce, nice rising Twiggs Weekly Money Flow. TNY is above the resistance line of its all time high. Now it has changed from a red resistance line to a green support line. This is seen as being into 'Blue Sky' territory, meaning there are no more overhead resistance lines to overcome.


----------



## verce (19 May 2019)

Love the blue sky potential @Ann! (also have that song on repeat now) 

Speaking of blue sky, ratings continue to climb!


----------



## verce (20 May 2019)

How are we looking today?


----------



## tech/a (20 May 2019)

About the same as yesterday 
Relax.


----------



## verce (20 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> About the same as yesterday
> Relax.




From the poster who brought us:


----------



## verce (20 May 2019)

Looks like we have our first institutional investor.

https://www.dmxam.com.au/files/DMXCP Investor Presentation April 2019.pdf

Slide 8: 
Tinybeans Group Limited (TNY): fast growing, family photo sharing platform, with increasing global profile


----------



## tech/a (20 May 2019)

verce said:


> From the poster who brought us:
> 
> View attachment 94807




Brutal


----------



## galumay (20 May 2019)

verce said:


> Looks like we have our first institutional investor.




Yep, I posted a link a page or two ago after they took a 'tiny' position. They are not the only small private fund to have a punt, but I think the first to go public.


----------



## verce (22 May 2019)

Latest Highlights from the transcript of the investor call:

Machine Learning

In terms of the machine learning, this is something we announced only this week. It allows us to create this new offering and analyze all this data that we have and provide insights around it. *The data is anonymized and it's never going to affect the trust of our users and the power is in the aggregated insights around that*. It doesn't affect our users, it doesn't affect their privacy, and nothing will ever be shared personally to anyone external. It's all about this aggregated view on the data at a rolled-up level.

*We can understand based on what the data is telling us when a child starts to transition to solids*. And then I started to go to package goods and see how old they are and *the difference of the east coast to the west coast of Australia to the UK*. It's *still fairly new and we have a long way to go. We see this developing and growing, and we see the revenue opportunity into FY20.*

 Cashflow, Marketing & Scaling Up

*Growing the revenue per active user is going to continue to be a priority*. Having said that, we're planning out FY20 and we're definitely thinking *getting to cashflow breakeven is going to give us a chance to really accelerate things because our unit economics*, like we shared of CAC to LTV, is really appealing.

The other thing is *this content platform which will also bring in new users that won’t require a user to add a photo to sign up*, you could do it that way and look at other services the company provides and sign up without having to be able to add photos.

As we plan FY20, as the revenue grows and accelerates, especially into the holiday season this year, that *the Q4 calendar is going to be substantial for us*. It's going to be on what we've done today and *definitely there will be more money aside for marketing*, especially as we shared a CAC to LTV metrics.

*We know as parents we spend a huge amount on our children, and families spend huge amounts on families*. We want to be able to help them access these services, content and products on our platform.* We think the lifetime customer value could be hundreds if not thousands of dollars.* I think it will take us a while, but it could be pretty significant, as *with all this rich data, we can then be able to pre-empt and offer things, whether it's buying something or signing up to a babysitting service.* We see the services turning on, enabling revenue growth, and a deeper engagement with the user to be able to grow the per user revenue.

*Once you tell other big brands that Lego is working with you*, they scratch their heads and they go, well, if they're working with you when your audience is only this large, *you clearly offer a very high value prop*.

Obviously, it's a wonderful time for the company. It's an exciting growth stage and a great space in terms of family, a huge market opportunity for us. The revenues are really growing quarter on quarter and clearly so is the cashflow. That is good for us internally, as *we’re just planning out next year and the next three years for that matter. For us it's all about scaling and accelerating*


----------



## tech/a (22 May 2019)

Stopped out of TNY at B/E.


----------



## verce (22 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Stopped out of TNY at B/E.




I'm sorry - looks like you got shaken out by professional accumulators targeting stop losses. That's the problem with an illiquid stock with so few shares on issue - traders are going to get burned. I saw the same thing happen with PO3.

At least it was only 3k.


----------



## tech/a (22 May 2019)

Devastated


----------



## barney (22 May 2019)

barney said:


> *A buck 18 is excellent … .even a buck 15 is fine. Back under the gap open price ($1.13) not what we want*




Interestingly my Chart from last Thursday makes more sense today ….. The Range nominated was $1.18-$1.29 …… which were todays Low/High ….

It finished at the top of that Range today so still treading water ok.

Personally expecting a ranging period in the short term, but also expect if/when it breaks higher, it will do it with a gap above $1.40

If it happens to retest the $1.13 (which is possible), longer term holders will want to see some Demand/Volume around that area for confirmation.

Don't hold so all just mindless meanderings from me ….. but so far its behaving as expected

Last Thursday musings/chart below:-


----------



## HelloU (22 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> agree totally
> bought weetbix and tinybeans (WBT TNY) pilots last year solely on the basis that the names made me smile EVERY time i said them .... and still do. I do not actually care if they go up - i just like saying weetbix and tinybeans.
> 
> (i know it is not weetbix - but weetbix is what i say to have a laugh - I own "weetbix and tinybeans")






HelloU said:


> i hear u but alas not (not really)
> was minimum parcel ..... and did not care ...... i truthfully just smile at the names weetbix and tinybeans.
> 
> (bit like i cannot say 'penis' out loud without laughing - but for another thread perhaps)






tech/a said:


> Stopped out of TNY at B/E.



me too (out i mean)
that ann the other day made me feel dumb as i do not understand whatever it was tryin to tell me with all that fancy technical talk - tinybeans no longer made me laugh. it just made me feel dumb so it had to go. 

viva weetbix
viva penis


----------



## verce (22 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> me too (out i mean)
> that ann the other day made me feel dumb as i do not understand whatever it was tryin to tell me with all that fancy technical talk - tinybeans no longer made me laugh. it just made me feel dumb so it had to go.
> 
> viva weetbix
> viva penis




I guess this just illustrates the point that technology companies and technology business models are not well understood in Australia (especially not on the ASX, which is dominated by companies that dig up rocks in the ground).


----------



## galumay (22 May 2019)

verce said:


> I guess this just illustrates the point that technology companies and technology business models are not well understood in Australia




The counterpoint would be that the investors that sold out on that announcement understood very well the business model - and didn't like what they saw. Just be careful you dont see every single comment as confirmation for your bias!


----------



## investtrader (22 May 2019)

This is too small for me to trade, but the weekly looks extremely bullish. The volume coming in is big!!


----------



## verce (22 May 2019)

galumay said:


> The counterpoint would be that the investors that sold out on that announcement understood very well the business model - and didn't like what they saw. Just be careful you dont see every single comment as confirmation for your bias!




I personally believe those kind of investors lack long-term vision and the conviction to see it through. The fact they bought and then immediately sold demonstrates a profound lack of discipline.

I try not to pay too much attention to any crowd on Twitter (particularly 'Ethical Equities' - I assume they were the 'elite investors' you alluded to in earlier pages who then sold out in panic).


----------



## galumay (22 May 2019)

verce said:


> I assume they were the 'elite investors' you alluded to in earlier pages who then sold out in panic)




See thats exactly what I am trying to warn you about, honestly I dont know why I bother, you are so reluctant to apply any critical thinking to your emotional attachment to the narrative with this business. 

Once again your confirmation bias means you twist the warning of experienced investors exiting based on the announcement, into "elite investors...sold out in a panic." (there were a number of investors exiting based on that announcement BTW.)

I guess its my own fault for continuing to believe that there would be a chance my gentle prodding might help you become a little less emotionally invested and a little more dispassionate in assessing the business. Maybe I keep trying because I learnt so much from other investors who took the time to help me improve my analysis and research skills - by constructively critiquing my decision making. 

I think I may be suffering short term memory loss, I am pretty sure I have previously said I would not bother trying to engage and sign off from the thread, i will put the thread on ignore now to make sure I don't bother you with any more challenges to your thinking.


----------



## verce (22 May 2019)

galumay said:


> See thats exactly what I am trying to warn you about, honestly I dont know why I bother, you are so reluctant to apply any critical thinking to your emotional attachment to the narrative with this business.
> 
> Once again your confirmation bias means you twist the warning of experienced investors exiting based on the announcement, into "elite investors...sold out in a panic." (there were a number of investors exiting based on that announcement BTW.)
> 
> ...




I completely get what you are saying. And I’ve done my research. I don’t think your mysterious cabal of investors are half as clever as you think they are. Have you considered your confirmation bias? It works both ways. 

I’m sorry you feel the need to depart. I don’t harbour any I’ll will. Mostly tongue in cheek.


----------



## Joules MM1 (22 May 2019)

verce said:


> I completely get what you are saying. And I’ve done my research. I don’t think your mysterious cabal of investors are half as clever as you think they are. Have you considered your confirmation bias? It works both ways.
> 
> I’m sorry you feel the need to depart. I don’t harbour any I’ll will. Mostly tongue in cheek.




stick to your guns and do it your way, lose your way and win your way (as we all do!)
...so far so good

great to see a win in progress


----------



## verce (22 May 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> stick to your guns and do it your way, lose your way and win your way (as we all do!)
> ...so far so good
> 
> great to see a win in progress




Thank you sir! I’d rather be a loser than a quitter!


----------



## HelloU (22 May 2019)

i am happy to bank profits and use that cash to feed my family ....... trade the trade.

penis, lol


----------



## HelloU (22 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> i am happy to bank profits and use that cash to feed my family ....... trade the trade.
> 
> penis, lol



spoke too soon, i put them into remx in the big apple. wish me 'no quitting'.


----------



## Ann (23 May 2019)

Looking at TNY, it appears to be building its second step up in the journey higher. I note, so far, the Twiggs Weekly Money Flow appears to be falling slightly, but far less of an angle from the first 'step' fall. The red lines on the chart are the same angles from the fall of the money flow below. Let's see if it can maintain this more sideways level of fall as it consolidates the second step. Step by step.... 






...and another song for you Verce


----------



## verce (23 May 2019)

Thanks Ann - upwards and onwards! 

For anyone wondering about the Twitter reaction from the investors @galumay was talking about, it can be found here:



“You’ll be sorry when $TNY becomes a $10BN market cap AI/MachineLearning/VirtualReality/AutonomousDriving/HumanCyborg/QuantumComputing behemoth!“ really demonstrates a mature, objective and rational approach to investing.

You be the judge as to the level of confirmation bias at play here.


----------



## verce (23 May 2019)

https://stockhead.com.au/tech/tinyb...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This article is from 2017 and demonstrates that management are executing on their vision and sticking to their roadmap. They aren’t just making it up as they go along, as some misinformed people would suggest.

—

Chief executive Eddie Geller has a vision for much more — he’s building a “predictive modelling engine” to recommend the right product or information at the right time of the child’s life.

“Our mission is to connect products and services to a platform that can be personalised for the user,” Mr Geller told Stockhead.

“We want to build out the whole ecosystem [into] the ‘Internet of family’.”

Mr Geller hinted that they ultimately want to make the app a life-long service that will allow parents to follow their child from infancy to adulthood. The ability to track the child’s data is one feature to increase stickability.


----------



## verce (24 May 2019)

https://www.cake.co/conversations/c...album-app-tinybeans-stops-by-for-a-cake-panel



Interesting to hear that Eddie instinctively recognised the internet as a big game changer early on in his entrepreneurial career. And has built many companies which have been acquired at premiums.

I think we are fortunate to have three founders who each have massive shareholdings and a vision for disruption.

I say we, but I have no doubt I am the only holder of this stock on these forums. Go me.


----------



## verce (25 May 2019)

_“The most profitable positions often begin as lonely positions.”_


----------



## verce (26 May 2019)

*"We do know that a lot of celebrities use Tinybeans ... it's for people who really, really value their privacy,"* Ms. Kurtini said.

"It's not flooding your [Facebook] feed every day and it's being respectful of your kid's privacy as well." 

The social media platform for kids has also booked high profile advertisers including the Walt Disney company, Walmart and General Motors.

Tinybeans also said that Walt Disney’s many brands have begun to “utilise the Tinybeans platform to further engage new parents and grow the awareness of a vast array of Walt Disney properties,” which suggests that the partnership is a good fit with similar customer interests allowing for significant cross-selling and up-selling opportunities.

“Disney is one of the great American family heritage brands. Their investment in and presence on the Tinybeans mobile and web-based platforms reinforces the value of our millions of users as the right consumers to foster trusted engagement with the many brands of Disney,” said Eddie Geller, Executive Chairman and CEO of Tinybeans.


----------



## Ann (26 May 2019)

Let's see what I can see on the chart this week...

TNY has cemented another nice little step up this week by creating a second 'tread'. The prices remained above the long term support resistance line of $1.15/$1.16, it has since created a new resistance line of $1.40 (red line) which it needs to break above.  It is still riding above the 21daysma (wiggly purple line under the prices) and just for a bit of fun and novelty I have added the Aroon Oscillator, that is still traveling in positive territory so far. 

Will there be another step up this week? All so exciting, pass the pop-corn!


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

Thanks @Ann

Always appreciate your frank and fearless advice.


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

The gap has been closed!


----------



## willoneau (27 May 2019)

A close today below 1.14 would to me indicate weakness and lower prices.


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> A close today below 1.14 would to me indicate weakness and lower prices.




Even on very small volume? Appreciate your input.


----------



## willoneau (27 May 2019)

Hi verce , I noticed the low volume and would be waiting to see how the bar finishes today.


----------



## willoneau (27 May 2019)

Since you have a position any thoughts on how you are going to manage it?


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Since you have a position any thoughts on how you are going to manage it?




I have no urgent need to sell. My entry price is so low that I can weather any downturn. I would like to see how the next quarterly result turns out in July - I'm expecting further positive momentum and have no reason to doubt their forecasts.


----------



## willoneau (27 May 2019)

Ok , just out of curiosity , do you have a stop in?
or like max % drop from recent high?


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Ok , just out of curiosity , do you have a stop in?
> or like max % drop from recent high?




No stops at all. I think relying on stops in such an illiquid stock is a recipe for disappointment.


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)




----------



## willoneau (27 May 2019)

verce said:


> No stops at all. I think relying on stops in such an illiquid stock is a recipe for disappointment.



What about a mental stop?
like BE?


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> What about a mental stop?
> like BE?




It will never get to my average purchase price ever again. So I'm not worried.


----------



## willoneau (27 May 2019)

Impressive holdings, is the % profit or % of allocated capital?


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

Is this the end of Tinybeans?!


----------



## verce (27 May 2019)

I think @galumay and @tech/a may have been right. Have I made a huge mistake?


----------



## myrtie100 (27 May 2019)

@verce all you need is a stop.  You can always get back in at a planned level.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Ran some articles on the stats for their new information hub.

https://tinybeans.com/articles/

Already rank ~50,000 *globally*, and nearly rank ~10,000 in the US. Special guest appearance from France. 






I think this demonstrates the opportunity is worldwide in scope. Not bad for no additional headcount or costs required to run this platform.


----------



## Ann (28 May 2019)

verce said:


> Is this the end of Tinybeans?!





verce said:


> I think @galumay and @tech/a may have been right. Have I made a huge mistake?




I don't believe so Verce. 

If I had entered this at $1.20 I would be down by about 5.6% percent so far. Today I would be watching the price to see if it falls below the 21dsma (purple wiggly line). If it failed this line I would be out. My next trade would give me my investment value less my % loss from TNY. I would need to do better next time and I would also review why I had failed this trade, what I missed to see on the chart. Every loss should be turned into a win by learning from a failure.

If I had bought in at 50c where I had been tempted to enter, I would also sell on the fail of the 21dsma. However if I had bought in at 30c at my first temptation price and intended to be a long term investor and prepared to ride the dips I would hold this until it fell to the 50dsma (Aqua line) and failed this line or the .70c support line. I would then sell.

Looking at the Twiggs weekly money flow (not shown), it has a slight fall but not falling at any great angle, this tells me so far the punters are happy. Talking about punters let's have a look at the Positive Volume Index. This is what the punters are thinking....pretty happy so far, maybe a few punters left on fail of support line but that is reasonable if the support line was their stop level.
Let's see what today brings...


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Ann said:


> I don't believe so Verce.
> 
> If I had entered this at $1.20 I would be down by about 5.6% percent so far. Today I would be watching the price to see if it falls below the 21dsma (purple wiggly line). If it failed this line I would be out. My next trade would give me my investment value less my % loss from TNY. I would need to do better next time and I would also review why I had failed this trade, what I missed to see on the chart. Every loss should be turned into a win by learning from a failure.
> 
> ...




Thank you Ann! I think that is a clearly articulated strategy, and I'm not exaggerating when I say this is really going to help me plan my approach.

I think I will wait and see if it holds above 70 cents. It was a challenging stock to acquire with so few shares on issue, so I don't want to give them up straight away without a fight.


----------



## HelloU (28 May 2019)

@willoneau 

to contribute to the exit discussion on the other
fri 17May close $1.41   new high
mon traded whatevs
tue 21May close 1.31  (down >5% from high so my system flagged for a look)
sold wednesday

usually 5% is not enough for me to sell so i look at lots of stuff to help groin scratch . in this case though i didn't really look i just took good (unexpected) profits cos i did not want it in my portfolio anymore for all those devil in the detail reasons. 

(to each their own)

verce ..... would i have sold with a proper look back then?, prolly not. but i would be watching like a hawk right now and have an exit in mind whislt hoping i did not need it (shake and some profit taking from the run until proven otherwise)


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Makes sense to me! I think I have a little wiggle room as a buffer.

I do believe in the long-term this will go up. The iOS ratings are downloads are still coming in strong.


----------



## HelloU (28 May 2019)

verce,
could i also add these rambling thoughts
the run on the 16th would have popped trader scans that night. many would have grabbed positions on the 17th but it could not go on with it despite fresh blood ...... they would have been exiting over the last few days. i have not watched the trades to see if that is true but probability says it holds some truth.
good luck whatever u do


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2019)

Perhaps another opinion may shed some different light.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Perhaps another opinion may shed some different light.
> 
> View attachment 95000
> 
> ...




Interesting charts.

What I find really strange is, given there are <6 million shares available outside of the Top 20, where are these sellers coming from? They must run out of shares sooner or later, one would think.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Has anyone heard of Ascot Securities? According to some broker data posted on HotCopper, they are one of the major buyers.


----------



## Ann (28 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Perhaps another opinion may shed some different light.









This is fine if you are not trading with your own money. If like us mere mortals we use our own money and not debt instruments it is $20 dollars a trade, so to jump in and then jump out then jump in again it will cost $60. Not exactly breaking even but certainly making the brokers wealthier!


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2019)

Sorry I don't understand 
I use my own money on every trade 
I use IB as my broker and I pay $6 and $6
A 6000 share holding will get you $60 a cent in price movement or
$300 will take 2 cents?

$1.13 to $1.40 is 27c must be a drink in that.

If you don't do things differently you just be one of the crowd.
With all due respects 90% of this thread is crowd chatter.


----------



## HelloU (28 May 2019)

studies show that 86% of all statistics are made up


----------



## Ann (28 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Sorry I don't understand
> I use my own money on every trade
> I use IB as my broker and I pay $6 and $6
> A 6000 share holding will get you $60 a cent in price movement or
> ...




Which is fine if you are trading regularly, if not then you get charged a monthly inactivity fee.  I may not want to trade constantly, so it could end up not being a saving for me or others who trade for a long term hold.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Is anyone else seeing the huge orders coming in?!


----------



## willoneau (28 May 2019)

But is price moving?


----------



## HelloU (28 May 2019)

Ann said:


> Which is fine if you are trading regularly, if not then you get charged a monthly inactivity fee.  I may not want to trade constantly, so it could end up not being a saving for me or others who trade for a long term hold.



off topic
(do not want to get a derail reputation)

not talking for tech but his point is valid. it is not about the brokerage costs, it is about capital preservation. even if it is $24.95 for a little trade (anz 1st of month small value c*cks) then that is nothing compared to the 10% or 20% loss that can happen pretty quickly ........... and then u r sorta trapped and not sorta in control anymore.
Not everyone can employ that strategy but should be a thought ...

42% of my pilots are stopped out ..... lol ....i made that statistic up.


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> studies show that 86% of all statistics are made up




Yes I know I'm using the 4%



Ann said:


> Which is fine if you are trading regularly, if not then you get charged a monthly inactivity fee.  I may not want to trade constantly, so it could end up not being a saving for me or others who trade for a long term hold.




If your trading for a long term hold the Brokerage is the same.
If your sitting in a profitable long term trade then a monthly fee if you dont use
it isnt going to matter as your profiting anyway.
Unless your Capital base is $500-$1000 in which case --- Your under capitalized.


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2019)

So looks like today was the day.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Looks to me like the market is just kind of ambling along sideways.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Okay never mind you were right - something going on now.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 May 2019)

The 17th May high is a significantly shortened thrust above the Apr 26 high.  So sideways for a while, perhaps down.  I'd try to sell at 1.25 and look for a re-entry.


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Don't be a duck either.




Que?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Que?



Rhyme (humour).

Wrong thread though.


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2019)

Quack


----------



## peter2 (28 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> With all due respects 90% of this thread is crowd chatter.




The "duck" is too polite. I suggest that if you're trading TNY then post your plans and good luck to you. Comments on daily price fluctuations is a huge distraction to longer term traders/investors. Please respect the patience and the longer term outlook of our investing colleagues. 



verce said:


> I do believe in the long-term this will go up. The iOS ratings are downloads are still coming in strong.




@verce is a longer term investor. What happens day to day shouldn't matter to him. He's monitoring fundamental data that indicate how the business is progressing. I'm sure he'll sell when the numbers deteriorate or there are other indications that the business is not progressing towards it's goal.

Verce, stick to *your* plans. I've seen some evidence that you're being influenced by the short term chatter. You've defended your opinion. It shouldn't change unless there's data to support a change. I trust you're monitoring the data more than the chatter in this thread.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

peter2 said:


> The "duck" is too polite. I suggest that if you're trading TNY then post your plans and good luck to you. Comments on daily price fluctuations is a huge distraction to longer term traders/investors. Please respect the patience and the longer term outlook of our investing colleagues.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Thanks @peter2

Rest assured, I am factoring everything I read into my strategy and decision making - nothing to the exclusion of anything else.

Right now my column of reasons to remain invested in the stock far outweigh my column of reasons to sell. 

Appreciate your input.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

While you guys are all here - can you explain what SP XT means?


----------



## peter2 (28 May 2019)

A block sale is an agreed transaction that complies with the ASX rules for minimum requirements of block trades (size). A crossed trade is a trade facilitated by the same broker.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

Thanks peter - is there any significance to this?


----------



## HelloU (28 May 2019)

@peter2

respectfully, i have no idea what that was about given this is an internet forum.

on the first, not sure if u mean that some peoples posts are not welcome on the forum/thread or whether u mean that posts on TNY price movements are not relevant to a thread on TNY?

on the second, nobody but verce should care what verce does in their trading. But noting that verce posts TNY ..... goodness updates ...... on the HC Day Trading thread then i would hardly think that they need the protective skirts of others as affirmation.

Still wondering what that was about.

trade the trade


----------



## peter2 (28 May 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks peter - is there any significance to this?



Unknown, at this time. It could be a transaction between fund managers or a transfer between a significant shareholder to another. Directors must declare all transactions as you know. We may find out in time.


----------



## willoneau (28 May 2019)

Is the tny thread for investors or traders or both?
the discussion of trading it and it's outlook is chatter wether  you post charts or link company statements.


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2019)

Chatter 

Meaningless rehetoric in support of 
A biased view.

Of no analytic benefit.

Ramping comes under this.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Chatter
> 
> Meaningless rehetoric in support of
> A biased view.
> ...




I thought I was contributing.


----------



## willoneau (28 May 2019)

I hope my comments weren't in that 90%


----------



## HelloU (28 May 2019)

OT         (that warns peeps)

"clean-up team aisle 3"


----------



## barney (28 May 2019)

verce said:


> Thanks peter - is there any significance to this?




Not really …. A couple of big-wigs (traders/trading houses/Companies/Institutions/(insert whatever) have made a deal …. 

Number 1 wants *out *(There are a myriad of possible reasons)

Number 2 wants *in* because he thinks Tiny has longer term potential and is happy to take a stake for future benefit … 

Both 1 and 2 can be happy with the deal and make a few bucks … (market equilibrium) ….. 

The difference of opinion is essentially about *Time/Timing* and the Punters involved trading styles etc etc etc (lots of potential etc's )

A thread could be written on the multitude of possibilities regarding the above, but in my experience, when a few larger players are happy to play swap/meet, it often, but not always indicates, that the shorter term SP gyrations are likely to diminish …. 

… and with that, a whole new series of "market emotions" from those who are "unsure of their investment reasoning" can become evident as the SP seemingly becomes "unreadable".

Trading or Investing  …… big difference 


Bit of random musing above …. but I'm sure someone will understand my ramblings  … 

I now have to cook dinner for my tribe who are annoyed that my musings have taken me away from my cheffing duties!


----------



## barney (28 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> I hope my comments weren't in that 90%




 … 

I know if mine were, than I am/would be deeply offended/slash devastated ….. truly, I would be


----------



## willoneau (28 May 2019)

Hi barney , if mine were in that 90% I would hope I learn how to reduce it as I don't want the chatter too.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

barney said:


> Not really …. A couple of big-wigs (traders/trading houses/Companies/Institutions/(insert whatever) have made a deal ….
> 
> Number 1 wants *out *(There are a myriad of possible reasons)
> 
> ...




I think I saw the same thing happen on FOD at 4 cents or so - and then two institutions got onboard and it went to 15 cents.


----------



## barney (28 May 2019)

verce said:


> I thought I was contributing.




From where I sit @verce  …. you are one of the minority on the Forum who is actually making some serious profit from Tiny at the moment …… Your input cannot be considered chatter, so rest easy, and if you feel the desire, you may even gloat just a little



willoneau said:


> Hi barney , if mine were in that 90% I would hope I learn how to reduce it as I don't want the chatter too.




Don't concern yourself Will.  If having an opinion on a public Forum is considered chatter, and chatter is considered valueless verbal communication, then we may as well *all* pack our bats and balls and go join a monastery … or a bingo group

I actually disagree that this thread has 90% chatter ….. no disrespect @tech/a as you know I have much respect for your opinion …. but I think this thread overall has had a lot of valuable input throughout ….. 10% chatter perhaps … but 90% ...… mmm, not from where I'm sitting 

PS. For anyone interested, I'm sitting on my million dollar yacht sailing the Whitsundays with my highly paid entourage of slaves …. hang on, I just woke up …. it a 9 foot tinny with a six pack in the eski (the ice has melted of course)  

 Anyway, my illusions aside …… I suspect TNY will be a valuable thread which will be re-visited in the future for many and various reasons. Cheers all


----------



## HelloU (28 May 2019)

barns, it is nice when the boat is on the lawn - makes going to the toilet heaps more convenient.

verce, https://www.asxonline.com/marketinf... of new Block Special Crossing Trading Co.pdf

gotta go b4 i get ...... aaahhhhhhhhhhh.


----------



## verce (28 May 2019)

barney said:


> From where I sit @verce  …. you are one of the minority on the Forum who is actually making some serious profit from Tiny at the moment …… Your input cannot be considered chatter, so rest easy, and if you feel the desire, you may even gloat just a little
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yes, I suspect this forum thread will endure one way or another. Probably as a legacy to verce's emotional folly and imminent demise.


----------



## barney (28 May 2019)

verce said:


> Yes, I suspect this forum thread will endure one way or another. Probably as a legacy to verce's emotional folly and imminent demise.




Not at all my friend …..  You are in an enviable position.  It doesn't and shouldn't end badly from here regardless of whether the SP goes higher or lower.  

You are obviously in a good profit at the moment and should approach the situation with that in mind … 

If you are unsure what to do, perhaps seek out the advice of a professional accountant/advisor/someone you respect who has the runs on the board etc etc who is well versed in Stock trading *and can assess your personal financial situation.*​​Your Income … Your age … Your job … Your family situation are all important considerations in how you should/could trade this Stock for you/your families future from this point.

Its interesting that trading decisions are often tougher when you are winning ​


----------



## barney (29 May 2019)

barney said:


> Personally expecting a ranging period *in the short term,* but also expect* if/when it breaks higher, it will do it with a gap above $1.40*




I suggested that 7 days ago … 

If it gaps open either tomorrow or Friday above $1.43 …. (I think it may)

I'd expect some short term excitement in the SP

I have no idea about how to value this Stock or why its doing what it is doing …. but if that gap up eventuates, it could be over to @verce place for a barby-Q   ….. Roasted "Beans" all round


----------



## verce (29 May 2019)

barney said:


> I suggested that 7 days ago …
> 
> If it gaps open either tomorrow or Friday above $1.43 …. (I think it may)
> 
> ...




Decent volume today.

TNY exhibits developing signs of an economic moat around its business model - including early evidence of the 'Network Effect' and the 'Switching Cost'.

https://www.vaneck.com/blogs/moat-investing/switching-costs-build-moats

At the end of the day, it's a unique social pipeline for parents who invest both their time and money into the platform. The Monthly Active Users metric is growing, and people are engaged on a daily basis to upload more photos to their child's timeline. Through ongoing use, it becomes a memorable digital keepsake of their child -  and this powerful effect acts as an incentive to remain on the platform, and inhibits any competitor from encroaching on their private and secure space.

There is talk of a recession in the next couple of years. Tinybeans should hopefully be able to weather any economic downturn, because time and money will always need to be spent on children - and there are plenty of babies born each year. (on this note, I have heard criticism from commentators that users will outgrow the platform, but if this was the case the A2 Milk business model would collapse and they would stop producing infant formula - there are more customers coming into existence every day for both A2M and TNY).

The content repository becomes a hub of useful advice and information for new families who consume the content and subsequently sign up to the platform - leading to a snowball effect over time, as Tinybeans introduce new content, which in turn draws in more parents and raises awareness of the brand.

Let's face it - social media lives or dies on its brand and image. Facebook has been irreparably tarnished in my opinion. TNY is nicely placed to move in on this space. Probably will be an acquisition target at some point if growth continues.

Thanks @barney!


----------



## verce (29 May 2019)




----------



## willoneau (29 May 2019)

verce said:


> View attachment 95035



Hi verce , do you use Swingtradebot in your system?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 May 2019)

barney said:


> I suspect TNY will be a valuable thread which will be re-visited in the future for many and various reasons.



verce is playing it nice and loose.  Free 'n easy.  imo, that's why the thread is attracting so much attention.  His vibe is nearly perfect for money making.


----------



## tech/a (29 May 2019)

ohh My


----------



## verce (29 May 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> verce is playing it nice and loose.  Free 'n easy.  imo, that's why the thread is attracting so much attention.  His vibe is nearly perfect for money making.




I always figured there was more to you than meets the eye! This is probably the most observant comment in the 20 page thread. I’m not being facetious either.

The way I see it, if I can provide some drama and even look like a fool, at least I’m putting a hidden gem on the radar of the more sophisticated traders in the process.

Had to turn over a lot of rocks for this one, believe me.


----------



## verce (29 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Hi verce , do you use Swingtradebot in your system?




I do not - I just thought it may be of interest to anyone working on technical charts.

The only thing I understand, in all honesty, is green = good.


----------



## tech/a (30 May 2019)

There is a pretty good chance that this will test the high 
And could in all likelihood reverse back.

As mentioned a blast through the high BUT on low to average volume 
Could open blue sky.

Not as confident as the back slappers.


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> There is a pretty good chance that this will test the high
> And could in all likelihood reverse back.
> 
> As mentioned a blast through the high BUT on low to average volume
> ...




Hi duck

Make sure you don't fall into the trap of 'anchoring' the old price in your mind, because then you will miss out on all the potential upside from here. It's still cheap when you look at market cap and compare it to its peers.

In other news, the Tinybeans CEO will be presenting and meeting with investors Tuesday June 5th 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time at the 9th Annual LD Micro Invitational in Los Angeles. 

https://www.ldmicro.com/events/presenter-schedule?day=2


----------



## HelloU (30 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> So looks like today was the day.



not my business but .......
i reckon duck gets that, he posted that before ....... (it was totally recognised)

trade the trade


----------



## tech/a (30 May 2019)

HU

I un ignored some babble to see what your post was related to.

A long term holder who posts everything to support his view for me is tedious.
Ok your long term you bought it for 10c and think its worth $5.

Could be-----I've seen it happen and known people who have done that and better.

My postings here are simply to *show case* that good technical analysis (not vanilla
Oscillator rubbish) can anticipate some great moves with very little risk.
$1.18 to $1.38 is 15% in 2 days Some are happy with that return on their money
in a year!
Im not competing or trying to undermine anyone's view
Price action is simply Price action---it is what it is.Hoping,praying,willing or 
ignoring it wont change it.

Perfectly put Trade the Trade---whatever *YOUR* trade is!


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

We miss you @galumay !


----------



## tech/a (30 May 2019)

Price has broken through to an all time high on volume.
Don't want to see a close well off the highs. Finishing on or near highs 
is by far preferable.


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

So far my high-conviction strategy of buying and holding, instead of trying to time the market, is working well.


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 May 2019)

i disagree with typical thinking for this stock
the lack of available supply distorts the auction, price cannot rise smoothly or rotate smoothly simply because the supply isnt there.....price rise requires consistant supply without which price cannot rise as we think it should - it's a misnomer to think that lack of supply will make people chase price, supply and demand are relative, not enough of one does not not default to more of the other, that idea is not met with ideas of value so a price can close down from new highs because the value isnt not there not because the psychology has flipped ......the wide distribution is about avail bid verses available supply so if there's no supply bids will wait, doesnt necessarily mean a lower close on a new high is a reversal signal


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 May 2019)

conversely, it doesnt mean youre wrong to think that way

#context and #relative size


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> i disagree with typical thinking for this stock
> the lack of available supply distorts the auction, price cannot rise smoothly or rotate smoothly simply because the supply isnt there.....price rise requires consistant supply without which price cannot rise as we think it should - it's a misnomer to think that lack of supply will make people chase price, supply and demand are relative, not enough of one does not not default to more of the other, that idea is not met with ideas of value so a price can close down from new highs because the value isnt not there not because the psychology has flipped ......the wide distribution is about avail bid verses available supply so if there's no supply bids will wait, doesnt necessarily mean a lower close on a new high is a reversal signal




I agree - trying to apply the traditional 'duck analysis' method will not work with only 33 million shares on issue (75% of which are held by the Top 20).

Better off relying on astrology or voodoo magic in that instance. If I had listened to the duck it was a strong sell at 90 cents.

I do think the Twiggs Money Flow which @Ann provides is a much more useful benchmark to gauge interest. Just my $0.02


----------



## tech/a (30 May 2019)

Good point


----------



## barney (30 May 2019)

barney said:


> I suggested that 7 days ago …
> 
> *If it gaps open either tomorrow or Friday above $1.43* …. *(I think it may)*
> 
> I'd expect some short term excitement in the SP




Occasionally I get to blow my own trumpet  … 

To be fair, I think I've called the price action pretty close to the money since the beginning of the Tinybeanies juggernaut … however, simply calling them without investing is easy, given your hip pocket has no vested interest.

So on that fact alone, I say to myself ….. get over your trumpet blowing and get on with fixing up why some of your real trades are going to crap




verce said:


> Thanks @barney!




With my above ramblings in mind …. you are most welcome @verce  …… bearing in mind I actually did nothing other than read the tea leaves …. and I saw the tea leaves were resembling *Tieguanyin *



verce said:


> I do think the Twiggs Money Flow  provides a much more useful benchmark to gauge interest.




My two bobs worth ….. Nothing wrong with the Twiggs concept, but as @Joules MM1 has alluded to above ….. The Supply and Demand equation given the illiquidity can be tricky to read.  

Again with my trusty Bb Trumpet in hand …… by honing down into lower time frame daily gyrations, and bearing in mind the tightly held register/Top 20, and lack of shares on issue, the price action has been actually easier to read in my book ….. 

One should bear in mind my book is likely more aligned to Dr. Seuss than War and Peace

On the TNY price action ….. today has been positive …… I wouldn't like to see $1.40 in the short term now (and don't expect to see it for that matter)

If I had to make yet another brash call on the price action ….. I see a solid close (a buck fifty or higher would be brilliant) and another gap up tomorrow 

If it does the above then I'd expect some profit taking (tomorrow) and next week will be a whole new ballgame yet again

What a load of rambling that was … (thought I'd get in before anyone else said it!!)


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

I find it amusing that each and every time TNY soundly exceeds someone's most optimistic wild forecasts - clearing through all the proclaimed resistance - people just come up with new price hurdles for it to jump over - otherwise it's all doom and gloom! 

It's okay if it pulls back a bit to $1.40 - it won't be the end of the world!


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

Ann said:


> Let's see what I can see on the chart this week...
> 
> TNY has cemented another nice little step up this week by creating a second 'tread'. The prices remained above the long term support resistance line of $1.15/$1.16, it has since created a new resistance line of $1.40 (red line) which it needs to break above.  It is still riding above the 21daysma (wiggly purple line under the prices) and just for a bit of fun and novelty I have added the Aroon Oscillator, that is still traveling in positive territory so far.
> 
> ...




I think @Ann deserves a lot of kudos for being the first one to call the break above $1.40 via the charts.


----------



## barney (30 May 2019)

verce said:


> I find it amusing that each and every time TNY soundly exceeds someone's most optimistic wild forecasts - clearing through all the proclaimed resistance - *people just come up with new price hurdles for it to jump over* -




 … I hope that observation was not influenced by my last post
​



verce said:


> It's okay *if it pulls back a bit to $1.40 - it won't be the end of the world*!




If it trades at $1.40 tomorrow (Friday) … trust me … you will not be happy  … I doubt that will happen however​
More likely a Gap higher as I suggested in my earlier ramblings


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

Only very partially influenced.  No hard feelings I really do appreciate the input. I honestly have no idea what to expect next - but the ride has been fun.

I'm more reflecting on the earlier days when it went to 60 and 70 cents and people said it was never going to clear $1.


----------



## barney (30 May 2019)

verce said:


> I think @Ann deserves a lot of kudos for being the first one to call the break above $1.40 via the charts.




To be fair … Anny was calling $1.40 Resistance in that post and not a break (correct @Ann) … I made my call of a likely Gap over $1.40 4 days earlier ….. 

I demand respect for my brilliance …. my trumpet doesn't get used enough now days so I'm blowing it whether anyone likes the tune or not lol

Also …. Anny cost me $50 bucks a few months ago (@Joe Blow can verify if required) so she is not on my Christmas card list …… I will be polite to her at the $2.50 Tinybeanos BBQ at your place however.

Never let your personal vendettas get in the way of a good sausage sandwich


So back to my earlier suggestion … TNY had a solid close at $1.50 (tick) 

I expect another solid gap up in the morning ( To be clear for the sake of the thread … this has little relevance for long term holders … simply tea leave reading) …. 

ie. Ride the wave … Holders might need to buy another cake of wax and perhaps a bigger surfboard though


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

barney said:


> To be fair … Anny was calling $1.40 Resistance in that post and not a break (correct @Ann) … I made my call of a likely Gap over $1.40 4 days earlier …..
> 
> I demand respect for my brilliance …. my trumpet doesn't get used enough now days so I'm blowing it whether anyone likes the tune or not lol
> 
> ...




Don't worry - both you and @Ann are exclusively on the VIP list for the TNY $10 party.


----------



## HelloU (30 May 2019)

barney and annie sittin in a tree ..........

(does that $80K buyer blocking the buyers queue actually want to buy anything i wonder?)


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

I'm waiting for the day when the TNY detractors finally admit they got it wrong. 

Turns out machine learning is actually pretty cutting-edge.


----------



## barney (30 May 2019)

verce said:


> Only very partially influenced.  No hard feelings I really do appreciate the input. I honestly have no idea what to expect next - but the ride has been fun.
> 
> I'm more reflecting on the earlier days when it went to 60 and 70 cents and people said it was never going to clear $1.




All good Verce …. I enjoy seeing other punters have a win so I'm sure you realise I'm in your corner 

My chart musings (which are generally short term orientated) are simply trying to give a snap shot of current price action. 

Definitely not trying to influence anyone's trading decisions ….. In saying that, I wish I had traded my analysis with this one

Just for the fun of it …. I see $1.60 in my crystal balls tomorrow


----------



## verce (30 May 2019)

barney said:


> All good Verce …. I enjoy seeing other punters have a win so I'm sure you realise I'm in your corner
> 
> My chart musings (which are generally short term orientated) are simply trying to give a snap shot of current price action.
> 
> ...




It will be interesting to see if those sellers at $1.55 and $1.60 are real or not. We will find out tomorrow.


----------



## barney (30 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> barney and annie sittin in a tree ..........
> 
> (does that $80K buyer blocking the buyers queue actually want to buy anything i wonder?)




Lol ….

Annie is in a gum tree (with the Koalas) … and I'm in a fig tree (with the Bats) ...fortunately I'm used to being knee deep in crap so Bats are just fine with me.

I'll go out on my fig tree limb and say that $80K buyer will lift his bid in the morning to at least $1.55  … and he may still miss out on the Open SP

How easy it making predictions when it doesn't cost you anything

I'm actually more interested in Tiny than I am in PNR at the moment (not smart on my behalf)  …. TNY is a happy chappy but PNR is acting like fools Gold! … I may need to address my priorities given the amount of cash at risk


----------



## barney (30 May 2019)

verce said:


> It will be interesting to see if those sellers at $1.55 and $1.60 are real or not. We will find out tomorrow.




They will be real …. but they are running out of mates


----------



## verce (31 May 2019)

Looking like a weak open. Could this be the end of the TNY train? 

Help @barney


----------



## tech/a (31 May 2019)

TNY
Very normal price action.
Testing the high
Yesterdays Wide range and high volume bar is 
having its mandatory inside day.
A break below (Close) yesterdays bar is weak as it had
significant volume to label as a V/C bar.


----------



## HelloU (31 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> barney and annie sittin in a tree ..........
> 
> (does that $80K buyer blocking the buyers queue actually want to buy anything i wonder?)



the one that was not there earlier ..... and by earlier i mean when on any buy line a $5K buyer could be thought of as a very big spender ...... (when multiple sellers were at $20K each)

sometime not so long b4 close (i was not watching) a single buyer arrived half a cent off the sellers for a $85K buy. and abley backed up by a single buyer on the $1.48 line wanting $45K (see below) .......... the result of that was a AC finish was pretty much going to be $1.485 at a minimum ........

and AC traded at $1.50 ......... i reckon they were happy ....

(i wrote that yesterday and did not post)

verce, (if this is telling u to suck eggs then ignore as it is meant to be an observation) someone is taking profits now .... it is friday
and, i do not have screen shots but i know u can find 2 of them from yesterday on the other place ..... look at that 30K volume buyer, it is now down at 115.  yesty he sat all day at 2c off the offer - all day he went up and down as the offer changed. (that is about $45K in a single order) he left just enough space in the buy queue above him for peeps to squeeze in. look at those screenshots to see.


----------



## verce (31 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> TNY
> Very normal price action.
> Testing the high
> Yesterdays Wide range and high volume bar is
> ...




Duck

Just to clarify that I understand your meaning - is this what you are saying? (I'm just a pleb when it comes to the technical language)


Pullback on low volume expected
Stock needed to calm down and have a 'breather' before next step up
If it closes at or above $1.49 we are okay
Just want to confirm I am interpreting your analysis correctly.

Cheers,
verce


----------



## barney (31 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> *someone is taking profits now .... it is Friday*




Yeah …. I expected more interest at the open, then a bit of late profit taking (the Friday factor as you say H), but the open ran out of puff quickly.  Did reach $1.55 but no follow through. 

The close might tell a bit more but at the moment the Traders have gone to lunch early. All pretty normal.


----------



## HelloU (31 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> the one that was not there earlier ..... and by earlier i mean when on any buy line a $5K buyer could be thought of as a very big spender ...... (when multiple sellers were at $20K each)
> 
> sometime not so long b4 close (i was not watching) a single buyer arrived half a cent off the sellers for a $85K buy. and abley backed up by a single buyer on the $1.48 line wanting $45K (see below) .......... the result of that was a AC finish was pretty much going to be $1.485 at a minimum ........
> 
> ...



and he was certainly well out of the way when that sell-off happened into the buy queue just b4 11am ........ but i am just speculating now
going now ....


----------



## barney (31 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> TNY
> Very normal price action.
> Testing the high
> Yesterdays Wide range and high volume bar is
> ...




Yep.
​


verce said:


> Looking like a weak open. Could this be the end of the TNY train?




I thought there might be a few more legs in it this morning, but as tech has pointed out, it is now a typical day after yesterdays push. Grab a book and a cup of tea till 3pm


----------



## barney (31 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> and he was certainly well out of the way when that sell-off happened into the buy queue just b4 11am ........ but i am just speculating now
> going now ....




Well spotted ….. Perhaps he side stepped, then threw a long ball to the Winger hoping to bypass all the inside tacklers …. The big question is did he/will he back up again to pick up any loose balls


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 May 2019)

Thrusts are shortening on lower swing volumes.  So momentum is slowed a bit.  fwiw.


----------



## verce (31 May 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thrusts are shortening on lower swing volumes.  So momentum is slowed a bit.  fwiw.
> View attachment 95070




Looks like support is evaporating rapidly and we are heading back to $1 judging from the charts.


----------



## Joules MM1 (31 May 2019)

verce said:


> Looks like support is evaporating rapidly and we are heading back to $1 judging from the charts.




shake em out, all part of the gig, money flows are strong, someones buying all that selling (what there is of it!)


----------



## Joules MM1 (31 May 2019)

verce said:


> Looks like support is evaporating rapidly and we are heading back to $1 judging from the charts.



nothing goes in a straight line

maybe take the weekend off from the screen ....otherwise every pullback is  and a decent pullback is  even tho it's part of a healthy uppy ....so avoid the mini mental  's and avvagooodweekend


----------



## verce (31 May 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> nothing goes in a straight line
> 
> maybe take the weekend off from the screen ....otherwise every pullback is  and a decent pullback is  even tho it's part of a healthy uppy ....so avoid the mini mental  's and avvagooodweekend




Good advice. I think I will!


----------



## verce (31 May 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> shake em out, all part of the gig, money flows are strong, someones buying all that selling (what there is of it!)




I’m looking forward to seeing a new Twiggs Money Flow from @Ann


----------



## barney (31 May 2019)

barney said:


> All good Verce …. I enjoy seeing other punters have a win … Just for the fun of it …. *I see $1.60 in my crystal balls tomorrow*




My crystal balls may need a wheel alignment

Traders left the building early today and anyone buying in around recent tops were put under pressure.

Plus anyone sitting on large profits at the moment would be a candidate for profit taking.

I assume the Top 20 are still holding firm until we hear otherwise. If so, then the Traders will dictate terms in the short term.

Traders are only interested in buying low and selling high.  If we see positive buying on the down spikes, all is good.

Friday's can be a bit hard to call as @HelloU mentioned. I had a "bonus bet" that the Traders would be more active early today than they were, so I called it wrong …… doesn't matter if you are right or wrong anyway .. its what you do after your analysis confirms or rejects your bias  Long termers can basically ignore the day to day stuff anyway (to a point)

I expect the Traders will return soon given the ease at which the SP can be manipulated on this one …. they may need to shake the tree a bit to get enough Volume though


----------



## tech/a (31 May 2019)

GB

Well that could indicate that Supply is waning!

BARNEY

It certainly isn’t about being right or wrong
It’s about being profitable.


----------



## barney (31 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> BARNEY
> 
> *It certainly isn’t about being right or wrong
> It’s about being profitable*.




Indeed Tech ……


----------



## verce (31 May 2019)

barney said:


> Indeed Tech ……




It's also about developing a technology platform that connects parents with the most trusted tools and resources on the planet to help every family thrive!


----------



## Ann (1 June 2019)

verce said:


> I think @Ann deserves a lot of kudos for being the first one to call the break above $1.40 via the charts.




Thank you verce but barney is quite correct with what he says. I will never say something _will_ happen or give a price target (other than a measured move) with me I feel more ethical by saying there is a _potential_. I would hate anyone to trust something I say and possibly lose money.



barney said:


> To be fair … Anny was calling $1.40 Resistance in that post and not a break (correct @Ann) … I made my call of a likely Gap over $1.40 4 days earlier …..




Correct barney, I never call a break or give a price target other than for a measured move. I only work on potentials related to indicators and support/resistance.



barney said:


> Also …. Anny cost me $50 bucks a few months ago (@Joe Blow can verify if required) so she is not on my Christmas card list …… I will be polite to her at the $2.50 Tinybeanos BBQ at your place however.




Never bet me on the POG or the POO!   Everything else is fair game! 

Now for the all important TNY chart....

This week I decided to show three Indicators and where TNY sits with the 21daysma. TNY is still comfortably above the 21dsma.

The first Indicator is the RSI. This indicator shows when something has been over-bought or over-sold. Often people use this as an exit or entry trigger once a high or low has been reached. As you see TNY had reached an over-bought level, so a sell off is not surprising.

Then there is the volume and the volume was nothing special, not a massive spike of folks leaving.

The last Indicator is the Twiggs Money Flow, just for verce! I decided to look at the Twiggs Daily Money Flow to see how extreme the angle was on Friday after the sell-off. Not too bad, there have been a few extreme sell-offs in the past much worse than Friday. Perhaps just a couple of Nervous Nells fled or a few stops got triggered or both.


----------



## tech/a (1 June 2019)

Ann

What is the significance of trading above a 21 day M/A 
It’s below a 10 Day why does that not matter?

RSI has remained over bought for 300% so what is the significance now 
And not the other 3 peaks?

Low volume and a wide range indicates no Demand sellers 
Looking to be filled 

Your arrows showing outflow of money are where moves are a few cents
This is a 24 Period oscillator 
Expecting to see any information to the right side of the page is silly
It will take days for this to indicate anything.

Sorry I just can’t see the value
What would you do knowing what you know from your analysis!
Buy
Sell 
Hold 

Why?


----------



## verce (1 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> Ann
> 
> What is the significance of trading above a 21 day M/A
> It’s below a 10 Day why does that not matter?
> ...




Well in my humble and amateur opinion, based on the info from @Ann, it looks to me like there are still interested buyers, and this isn't a rudimentary pump & dump scheme. Someone sees good value here and the smart money is still flowing in. Looking at the caliber of people involved, it looks like a good long-term buy.

e.g.

*John Dougall, Non-Executive Chairman*

Mr Dougall has worked in senior executive and board level roles in several technology companies based in Melbourne, New York, Sydney, London and San Francisco. Mr Dougall has also been the Managing Director of four ASX-listed companies, successfully exporting Australian technology to China, India, The Philippines, Vietnam and Latin America. Additionally, he served as President and CEO of an Australian company that ultimately listed on the NASDAQ, selling its software solutions to major retailers in the USA and Europe. Mr Dougall has served as a Director to several Industry Associations, as past Chairman of the Australian Government's CSIRO Information Technology Advisory Board, as well as advising Government on Industry Strategy and Trade.

*Missy Godfrey, Non-Executive Director*

Ms Godfrey is an operationally focused director and executive with extensive experience in public and privately held companies including entrepreneurial startups, growth and mature organizations. Ms Godfrey operates M3 Advisors, a consulting firm that helps companies to thrive in today’s rapidly changing environment. She uses her expertise to provide strategic planning and execution for revenue generation, partnership development, content creation, fundraising and growth to sell strategies, including assuming executive roles for turn arounds and transitions. She was the interim CEO of Only Good News, a start up digital video company. Previously she was CEO of SpaFinder Wellness, a global marketing, commerce and media company, which was sold to BlackHawk Network, as well as CEO of Socialflow, a leading SaaS platform for social media marketing.

*Megan Gardner, Non-Executive Director*

Ms Gardner is a sought-after board member for fast-growing technology businesses (portfolio spans North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia). Her portfolio companies have completed numerous rounds of fundraising and several transactions, including a recent sale to Oracle. She serves on several boards, including Crown & Caliber (chair) and DoubleNet Pay. She is the chair of YPO's Golden Gate chapter. Known as a business innovator, Ms Gardner focuses on applying disruptive technology to new spaces and teams. As CEO and founder of Plum District, she raised venture capital funding from top-tier Silicon Valley investors, expanded the e-commerce company to two-dozen cities, and grew the online member base to more than one million people. Ms Gardner managed over 350 employees and contractors, worked with top retailers like Target, Gap, and Whole Foods, and created partnerships with Facebook, Google, and Disney.

*Grady Edelstein, Head of Brand Partnerships*

Ms Edelstein spent the first 14 years of her career in fashion/beauty media, telling the stories of iconic brands through the lens of cultural relevance to resonate with clients big, small, mass and luxury. Additionally, she has over a decade of experience using qualitative and quantitative research methods to define brand strategy, inform business pitches and measure client success. Most recently at Glamour and Marie Claire, her work contributed to the success that earned the brands industry recognition on the Adweek Hot List and Advertising Age A-List. Ms Edelstein holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Quantitative Economics and International Relations from Tufts University.

*Jennifer Stamm, Head of Marketing*

Ms Stamm honed her marketing skills at some of the world’s biggest media brands, including the BBC, AMC Networks, Starz and Lionsgate Entertainment. Prior to her current role at Tinybeans, she was a vice president and brand manager for Tribeca Shortlist, a streaming app from Lionsgate and the Tribeca Film Festival. Prior to that, she helped launch a television streaming app for the BBC and ITV, the two biggest broadcasters in the UK.

Her 15+ years of experience includes work on everything from grassroots nonprofit campaigns to partnerships and show launches for Emmy®-award winning series like The Hour, Orphan Black, Doctor Who, Top Gear and more. Ms Stamm has a passion for building quality brands and love shifting gears between storytelling and data-driven marketing.


----------



## verce (1 June 2019)

https://forbusiness.snapchat.com/bl...ennials-are-becoming-a-growing-economic-force

*Millennials are the largest generation in history — and are on track to earn even greater purchasing power.*

Millennials represent the largest population cohort ever: This generation makes up almost half (45%) of the global adult population

The average millennial is older than you may think: Today, the average millennial is 26 and a half, with the oldest clocking in at 37 years old.

Millennial credit card spending is outpacing the rest of the population: Some areas, like San Francisco, see differences in growth rates as large as 9% between millennials age 25-34 and the total population.

Millennials will soon have unmatched purchasing power: By 2029, millennials will control the largest share of disposable income in the US.


----------



## Knobby22 (1 June 2019)

I thought millenials had to be born in 2000 or later. Someone changed the definition, just like x gen or forgotten gen used to be   1960 to 1970.


----------



## Knobby22 (1 June 2019)

Just had a good look at the March report. Going the right way but am thinking they will need a raising to expand. The next set of results will be very interesting.


----------



## verce (2 June 2019)

Hi @Knobby22 

I agree - the next Quarterly result due end of July will confirm once and for all whether they are on a cashflow positive trajectory.

I'm inclined to think so!

@barney @tech/a 

Someone on the "other forum" says that there is a  "gap at $1.15 that needs filling" and that Monday morning will see this fall back to possibly $1.075 (another gap).

Is there any technical basis for these comments? Are they just complete speculation?

Cheers,
verce


----------



## verce (2 June 2019)

Meanwhile, getting good coverage on the Apple App Store:


----------



## Ann (2 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> What is the significance of trading above a 21 day M/A
> It’s below a 10 Day why does that not matter?



If you notice, TNY has moved above the 21dsma for its entire journey once it rose above 30c. It shows me it is still strong.
I don't use the 10dsma I use the 9dsma. It is still just sitting on top of the 9dsma but that particular MA was accidentally left on and not meant to be shown as I don't use it as an indicator for an exit only for a breakout cross up indicator in early days of a stock's movement.



tech/a said:


> RSI has remained over bought for 300% so what is the significance now
> And not the other 3 peaks?



All the recent RSI peaks have been relevant for TNY and it has reacted by a price drop after each overbought peak. See red vertical lines. It suggests to me there will be a good buying opportunity on its way or a warning not to buy at the peak. Good place for a day trader to sell.
(A note to anyone interested to look at this indicator, it does not always react so promptly, it can drag in oversold or overbought for a period of time. Stocks like TNY tend to have more alacrity and react better with the RSI)



tech/a said:


> Low volume and a wide range indicates no Demand sellers
> Looking to be filled




I look at the buys and sells waiting in the queue. I see, as I write, 43 buyers for 155,543 units and 10 sellers for 101,577 units. This tells me there is more demand than supply at the moment. This does not guarantee higher prices on its own but it is a _potential_ indicator for support of a positive outcome.



tech/a said:


> Your arrows showing outflow of money are where moves are a few cents
> This is a 24 Period oscillator
> Expecting to see any information to the right side of the page is silly
> It will take days for this to indicate anything.



No this TMF shows the daily flows without a lengthy lag, it works on the day as it is a _daily _money flow. The other TMF is a weekly and that has a lag. I am never 'silly' with my indicators, I am very experienced with them and have used them over many, many years. Perhaps to those of less experience it may appear 'silly'. One must know how to read indicators properly and in the correct conjunction with each other. One Indicator alone is not sufficient for a full read. The only time I fail a trade is when I don't take the time to read all the indicators correctly. Any time I have failed a trade, I do a forensic on it and without doubt, each time I find an indicator I have missed reading correctly.



tech/a said:


> Sorry I just can’t see the value




No need to be sorry, you either can see something or you can't.



tech/a said:


> What would you do knowing what you know from your analysis!
> Buy
> Sell
> Hold




Hold.



tech/a said:


> Why?




It is above the 21dsma, it is above the all time high support/resistance line of $1.16, all my indicators are still acceptable. MACD is weakening the TMF weekly is falling but neither is causing alarm. The 21dsma is the test as the markets in general are very jumpy at the moment with the SPX failing the 200dsma on Friday.



verce said:


> ....it looks to me like there are still interested buyers, and this isn't a rudimentary pump & dump scheme. Someone sees good value here and the smart money is still flowing in.




I wouldn't describe it as a _rudimentary _pump and dump verce! 

After your comment I looked at the 'smart money' index NVI and that has had a slight fall which is to be expected after an RSI overbought (smart money reacts to an overbought signal) but it is still above its moving average. So the smart money is still in and the dumb money index PVI is going great!


----------



## tech/a (2 June 2019)

Thanks Anne for the confirmation.


----------



## barney (3 June 2019)

verce said:


> Hi
> Someone on the "other forum" says that there is a  "gap at $1.15 that needs filling" and that Monday morning will see this fall back to possibly $1.075 (another gap).
> 
> Is there any technical basis for these comments? Are they just complete speculation?





I posted bask on May 22nd that the $1.13 area was where you don't want to see this head now … that still stands.

$1.15 today would be negative response (in the short term/today)  …. I don't see it trading there today, but the next couple of days will clear things up.

So in a nut shell, no one has any idea where it will head ….. its more about how it trades at certain levels which can give a clue where it could go next.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 June 2019)

I just did a basic sentiment analysis (or the software did). Last Thursday's posts from here showed an extreme high of positive sentiment.  Just having a look at Friday now.


----------



## tech/a (3 June 2019)

GB

Where do these Analysis come from?
What is the criteria.

If its another oscillator it will be compiled of Y Data
over X periods.
and like all oscillators will run a lag particularly if X
is a longer period or Y (The latest input) is in consequential.

After a prolonged period on Strong positive movement like TNY has---
ANY oscillator is going to take a good week to show anything meaningful
particularly if they are 21 day or longer in periods.

Nothing is likely to show weakness (Oscillators) even if priced dropped consistently
for 5 days. With longer term period-icy. Shorter term of course are too whipy.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 June 2019)

It analyzed the posts from here over the course of the day before the drop (not stock data).  I used an online sentiment analysis tool.


----------



## tech/a (3 June 2019)

so a sample of 8 or so.


----------



## verce (3 June 2019)

I think it's good buying still.


----------



## verce (3 June 2019)

If you refer back to the original Prospectus, you will realise that the company is aiming to build so much more than people are assuming at first glance.







CEO Geller: _“We are now executing on our growth strategy as we strive to realise our vision of *a global nurture network,* connecting more than 100 million parents and family members to the people and products their children need.”_

*There is one major and overarching reason though that TinyBeans is an important social media network. It all centres around the privacy aspect.* Or more to the point the risk factor in which users of other social network sites are able to have copies of photos of their children stolen and copied.

It's a significant and powerful use case which I think is being underestimated by the broader market. The decline of trust in Facebook is a unique opportunity to capitalise on. TNY are in the right place at the right time, which is half the battle in business.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 June 2019)

27th May had quite a few posts and this was the day before the big run up.  It was ranked as strongly positive.  But the strength/weakness of feeling (pos/neg) was very low.  A computer is unlikely to be anywhere near as good as the human mind, but interesting to check.  Strong feelings tend to indicate volatility, which normally means the price is falling.  Who knew?!

intencheck.  I'm only using the free version.


----------



## Ann (4 June 2019)

Hangin' in there just a small bounce off the 21dsma. This morning the folks standing in the queue 37 buyers for 146,584 units 12 sellers for 80,846 units. Still demand higher than supply, so far.


----------



## Ann (4 June 2019)

Oops sorry meant to show the Twiggs Money Flow for verce, this is the daily just to see how they felt yesterday....slight dip, nothing too extreme.


----------



## barney (4 June 2019)

Little bit of tree shaking going on this morning on low Volume ….

The $1.10 level held firm at the first dig so that looks to be the short term line in the sand.

If I were holding, I be a lot happier if it closes in the $1.17-$1.19 region today. (or higher of course!)


----------



## barney (4 June 2019)

Chart:


----------



## HelloU (4 June 2019)

barney said:


> Little bit of tree shaking going on this morning on low Volume ….
> 
> The $1.10 level held firm at the first dig so that looks to be the short term line in the sand.
> 
> If I were holding, I be a lot happier if it closes in the $1.17-$1.19 region today. (or higher of course!)



that excitement took care of the gap at 1.135
what about 1.06 ?

(not very good tinny weather - not even on the lawn)


----------



## tech/a (4 June 2019)

Oh No

The 21d SMA has been breached!
The Twiggs Money Flow will be Dropping off a cliff.
RSI will be oversold before you know it
Gap has been filled
Support will it hold!
Volume is up on yesterday and its got half a session to go.

Sentiment---well nothing like optimism.
Another normal trading day!


----------



## HelloU (4 June 2019)

nah, gap still down at 1.060

(anyone get a short on zenith? yet to see light - may have pulled nwh too early but still happy - both dalgaranga victims - and i do not believe what nwh wrote)


----------



## HelloU (4 June 2019)

HelloU said:


> that excitement took care of the gap at 1.135
> what about 1.06 ?
> 
> (not very good tinny weather - not even on the lawn)



1.06 ......poof

as ned kelly says ...such is life.


----------



## barney (4 June 2019)

HelloU said:


> (not very good tinny weather - not even on the lawn)




Nah …. she goes well in any weather





Interesting day for Tiny …… plenty of the recent late starters relieved of the Shares today, and Bots batting both sides of the exchange.  It looks well orchestrated from the sidelines.


----------



## aus_trader (4 June 2019)

barney said:


> Nah …. she goes well in any weather



Nice Pic barney, hilarious.


----------



## verce (4 June 2019)

What a bloodbath.

What did I do to deserve this treatment?!


----------



## aus_trader (4 June 2019)

verce said:


> What a bloodbath.
> 
> What did I do to deserve this treatment?!



Hey mate, don't take it so personally. It's not just one stock, it's across the board in the Small Cap space, including the speculative stuff in my Speculative Stock Portfolio. So we are all taking a hit at the moment in our positions. As of today below are the stocks hit the hardest on the ASX:


----------



## barney (4 June 2019)

verce said:


> What a bloodbath.
> 
> What did I do to deserve this treatment?!




Its not that bad Verce ……. Lots of shares changing hands around the $1.10 region in a stock which is tightly held …… Traders are going about their business I suspect.  They were able to push it up easily over the last few days ….. and they can rightly push it down the same way, which means they were still holding enough Stock to do so.

The time frame I have no idea …. but I'd expect another push higher once the tree stops shaking


----------



## tech/a (5 June 2019)

Ready for lift off?


----------



## tech/a (5 June 2019)

While I see a temporary reversal I note increased volume as TNY falls.
I dont expect the high to be tested this time rather a formation of an ABC
reversal pattern over the next week. Which could get us as low as 70-85 C


----------



## Ann (5 June 2019)

verce said:


> What a bloodbath.
> 
> What did I do to deserve this treatment?!




Settle down verce!   Yes it breached the 21dsma, this is when I review a stock if we are in choppy seas with the major indices, it is not an automatic sell as I do manual stop loss to save me from the 'fearful' ones. What happened overnight in the US? The SPX rose above its 200dsma, so we are probably good to go today...
Looking at the chart today, I see the Twiggs daily money flow is slightly down as to be expected but nothing too extreme, then I looked at the RSI which is touching the 50 line, this isn't in oversold but as it has been riding high in the overbought, the oversold section can be called the 50 line. So effectively oversold and ready for a bounce. Then I looked at volumes, meh, nothing special.
Then we come to the Aroon Indicator, this is an indicator which has been assessed in my invaluable book, I invested mucho dollars in years ago (much cheaper now) called 'Encyclopeadia of Technical Market Indicators' by Corby  
It has been a great reverence over the years. They suggest just using the Aroon in a mechanical way with no other assessment or judgement would have produced a positive result in the long term and was 55.89% better than a buy and hold strategy. So in other words, buy when the blue crosses above the red and sell when the red crosses above the blue.

After all that, the Aroon is still in happy land! 95c support is still holding.


----------



## tech/a (5 June 2019)

Hmm

No trading on the open and a really wide initial gap.
Indicating no demand.
Doesn't bode well for longs.


----------



## verce (5 June 2019)

https://itunes.apple.com/au/story/id1426524833


----------



## verce (5 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> Hmm
> 
> No trading on the open and a really wide initial gap.
> Indicating no demand.
> Doesn't bode well for longs.




Probably back to 50-60 cents within a month judging from the current collapse of support?


----------



## tech/a (5 June 2019)

Surprisingly weak.
25% of average daily Volume.

An inside day
62% of the time according to Bulkowski
Price continues in the direction immediately before
the Pattern.
That would be down.

But hey 90% were Bullish a few days ago.
Sco Mo couldn't win and nor Could Trump!


----------



## verce (5 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> Surprisingly weak.
> 25% of average daily Volume.
> 
> An inside day
> ...




Just wait for the US money to come flooding in.


----------



## Ann (6 June 2019)

verce said:


> Just wait for the US money to come flooding in.
> View attachment 95231



Not until it has flowed out, an OTC is quite an expensive exercise for a company I believe, it also gives it a broader area for capital raising, so there is more potentially greater dilution of the stock.
Overall it isn't a bad thing, they would be in quite good company...

*The Complete List of Australian ADRs*

Now for a chart. Yesterday was very low turnover it may have simply been people who have a manual sell once a stock falls below the 21dsma. No hysterics just an orderly departure. Today is the day TNY needs to get back above that long term support/resistance of $1.16. I feel if it fails to do that it may be wanting to re-test the 95c level. 

The Twiggs weekly money flow continues to fall, still above 0% at around 9% so no drama at this stage.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2019)




----------



## Ann (6 June 2019)

Good to see you are starting to take notice of those 'vanilla oscillators' Tech/a!


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2019)

Well there is a good chance that it will turn out as useless as the last divergence.






AND it doesn't suit the positive spin you all
seem to be searching for.


----------



## Ann (6 June 2019)

What I am seeing on my most recent chart you drew on was the price rise is starting to get to a better, more sustainable angle, still too high but on the way. Your divergence for the weekly money flow is rising from previous levels. Both positive observations.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2019)

Ann
Vanilla Analysis is often conflicting and can be read to suit your bias.
As shown above.

It maybe helpful when all boats are rising in a sustained market.
But where specific analysis is required is way too slow,conflicting
and un reliable.

This is of course my opinion which is at 180 degrees to yours.

Im yet to see a trade of yours from start to finish and with
a claim of near on a 100% win rate Im really interested to see
a group of 5 trades which I suggested months ago.

*I want you to teach me something*---Unfortunately I think its a case of
un proven theory. ( "I can see it clearly in hind-site--why cant I get
it to work in real time!')

As for TNY its doing exactly as suspected.


----------



## Ann (6 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> Vanilla Analysis is often conflicting and can be read to suit your bias.
> As shown above.




We all have a bias in every single thing we do or think. I don't believe I have ever met anyone without a bias. So to chart with a bias is not surprising. I have admitted to my bias about TNY. It may well change but currently my bias is bullish. 



tech/a said:


> Im yet to see a trade of yours from start to finish and with
> a claim of near on a 100% win rate Im really interested to see
> a group of 5 trades which I suggested months ago.




Well the trouble was I realized quickly you wanted me to dance to your tune. I don't dance to any bloke's tune, never have, never will! 

However I can see you treat stocks like a coin toss as you have low entry and exit fees. You have a bias for trading stocks like you are in a whore house and I treat stocks like a relationship. I spend more time getting to know my stocks. So I guess I shouldn't have expected a higher hit rate from you with a short term trading style such as yours. Had I had a better knowledge of how you traded I guess I wouldn't have been so surprised by your lower success rate. You were just not someone who came into my radar very often.



tech/a said:


> *I want you to teach me something*---Unfortunately I think its a case of
> un proven theory. ( "I can see it clearly in hind-site--why cant I get
> it to work in real time!')



I have no desire to teach, had I wished to teach, I would have set up a how-to thread. There are more than enough folks with their how-to threads here. Apart from that, I believe it behooves us all to actively learn not passively expect to be taught. 

AIA is still going up...

In order not to go OT any further, I will not keep responding to these style of posts.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 June 2019)

I think a moderator needs to step in here.

Ann, please do some strawberry flavoured analysis.

Tech\a, please stop treating your stocks like whores.


----------



## Ann (7 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Ann, please do some strawberry flavoured analysis.




Just for you Grigotts Bank, strawberry flavoured! 

Good to see TNY back up above the 21dsma, now can it push beyond the $1.40 resistance line? The US Indices were higher today but one wonders for how long. If they puke then who knows what will become of TNY?  Time will tell us folks!


----------



## tech/a (7 June 2019)

Ann

Would you mind explaining the significance of the 21 day Smooth/MA.
Why not exponential or weighted?
Why is it selected as 21 periods and not some other?
Why is a 42 day not significant. You mentioned once that it bounced off the SMA
isn't it just a coincidence that price hits that level and then moves away from it?
If not why not?
It was breached a couple of days ago--what was the significance of that?
Today it trades at or above it ---what is the significance of that?

Why have you marked $1.40 as a resistance.
What is it resisting at that level? Why is this chosen.
IE what constitutes resistance can the reason for resistance change
in your view?

Currently you have this as a hold. In your view 
Has that changed.
What would need to change if
(1) It became a buy
(2) It became a sell?

Thanks.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 June 2019)

*913 *downswing is the largest on the chart.  *272 *upswing response is weak.  Wyckoffians might look to exit that sort of pattern.


----------



## tech/a (7 June 2019)

Nice work GB
What are the little numbers?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> Nice work GB
> What are the little numbers?



Cumulative volume per swing (or swing volume).  

Not backtested, just an observation/


----------



## tech/a (7 June 2019)

GB

Did you know a book has been written on exactly that!
Ill post up the Title and ISBN Number if interested.
Your on to something!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> GB
> 
> Did you know a book has been written on exactly that!
> Ill post up the Title and ISBN Number if interested.
> Your on to something!



Thanks, but I think I have it already. _Trades About to Happen._  ~Weis


----------



## Ann (7 June 2019)

I will preface this by saying, when I use any resistance/support lines or moving averages, I am trying to capture what the majority of the market is looking at. In other words I am attempting to foresee a potential for movement by the majority.



tech/a said:


> Would you mind explaining the significance of the 21 day Smooth/MA.
> Why not exponential or weighted?



Why I use the 21d is lost in the mists of time. I have used it forever. I would imagine it was a MA which some of the chartists used when I was first teaching myself to chart over at IC. I have it set on 'Simple', Simple is what the S stands for because Stockcharts which is a massively popular charting program uses simple moving averages of 50 and 200 as its default. As I said at the start, I am attempting to look at what the majority looks at.



tech/a said:


> Why is it selected as 21 periods and not some other?



 Over and over I find the price appears to respond to this time period MA. However it is simply a personal choice and someone else may prefer a different time frame.



tech/a said:


> Why is a 42 day not significant.



 42 might be very significant if someone is trying to time the markets ahead of others, I have never used it because the 50day is the popular one. Just want to keep in step.



tech/a said:


> You mentioned once that it bounced off the SMA
> isn't it just a coincidence that price hits that level and then moves away from it?
> If not why not?



 It may be a coincidence but it is a regular coincidence.



tech/a said:


> It was breached a couple of days ago--what was the significance of that?
> Today it trades at or above it ---what is the significance of that?



Moving averages can be used as a stop loss level.  If it rises back above, that means the stock hasn't capitulated.



tech/a said:


> Why have you marked $1.40 as a resistance.
> What is it resisting at that level? Why is this chosen.
> IE what constitutes resistance can the reason for resistance change
> in your view?



I chose $1.40 as a resistance after the price ran up and closed at $1.40 before it fell back on the following days. It had one day where the price closed above this line before it fell back again. This tells me the $1.40 support line is still weak and needs to be able to hold price levels above it. Until that time it remains as a 'resistance' line. I prefer to draw my lines on the End of Day price level. It is simply a personal preference, it has worked better for me over the years and it is often confirmed when Fibonacci levels are used. My support/resistance lines often correspond to Fibonacci levels. It is just a confirmation for me, that I am using a 'popular' line. As I said, I am trying to correspond with what everyone else is looking at.



tech/a said:


> Currently you have this as a hold. In your view
> Has that changed.
> What would need to change if
> (1) It became a buy
> (2) It became a sell?




I am not buying into any stocks from now on until the overheads have been resolved on the Aussie and US Indices. I may be stopping too early and lose a bit of the top, but I look for my comfort spot, if the major indices fail and there is a scramble to sell, I have no desire to be caught in the middle.

I am not going to comment on TNY but I will say that when any of my stocks are breaching the 21dsma I am making an orderly exit.

All this is totally off topic and time consuming so I won't be repeating lengthy posts like this in the future.



Gringotts Bank said:


> *913 *downswing is the largest on the chart.  *272 *upswing response is weak.  Wyckoffians might look to exit that sort of pattern.
> View attachment 95270




I saw this on my own chart but didn't comment....I can see a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern forming as you have drawn it.


----------



## verce (7 June 2019)

Good Evening

It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I have many fond memories and have even made new friends (as well as people who have put me on ignore merely for disagreeing with them) - but it has well and truly run its course (and probably broken a new record at 25 pages!).

I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.


----------



## Ann (7 June 2019)

verce said:


> Good Evening
> 
> It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I have many fond memories and have even made new friends (as well as people who have put me on ignore merely for disagreeing with them) - but it has well and truly run its course (and probably broken a new record at 25 pages!).
> 
> I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.



 Verce.....Nooooo don't go! We need your smarts here.


----------



## barney (7 June 2019)

verce said:


> Good Evening  It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.




You have no reason to feel that way Verce ……. The thread will be a great learning tool into the future (however it pans out from here) 

If you no longer contribute, that is perfectly fine, and your decision ….. but from a T/A and F/A combined scenario, TNY is, and may in the future be, a great lesson for all and sundry

Its an unusual Stock in many ways ….. I will certainly be keeping an eye on it as a reference


----------



## tech/a (7 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks, but I think I have it already. _Trades About to Happen._  ~Weis




Nope


----------



## tech/a (8 June 2019)

Ann Thanks for the reply.
I have a lot to add but before I do (relative to the analysis)
Do others think it should stay here or move out of the TNY 
thread?

GB
The Secret Science of Price and Volume 
Timothy Ord. ISBN 978-0-470-13898-4


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 June 2019)

Thanks tech, but books don't mean much to me unless they show evidence that it works (via a properly backtested system).  My efforts to code Wyckoff and Wyckoff-style systems failed to show any edge.  I showed it here only because I continue to work it over, looking for clues.  There might be an edge but I haven't found one.  Maybe it has some use for long term trend followers, but I doubt that too.

verce took off because he perceieved no value here.  I notice he's still holding the stock and posting on HC.  In my reckoning, he will make good money on this due to his attitude.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 June 2019)

One need only look at Modest's thread to see that it was his *belief in* Wyckoff that drove his success, not the Wyckoff method itself.  Of course you have to be able to read between the lines and most people can't do that.  Most people on here will never understand this in their entire lifetime of trading.  verce had a clue.


----------



## tech/a (8 June 2019)

Well GB 
That’s a book for you


----------



## verce (8 June 2019)

verce said:


> Good Evening
> 
> It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I have many fond memories and have even made new friends (as well as people who have put me on ignore merely for disagreeing with them) - but it has well and truly run its course (and probably broken a new record at 25 pages!).
> 
> I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.




After much reflection and careful consideration I have decided to *RE-OPEN* this thread for discussion. 

Tinybeans is back on the menu! Always persevere and make your own luck. I will never surrender!

*• Tinybeans has been chosen by Apple to be the “App of the Day” in Australia, France, Brazil and 73 other countries;*

*• This coincides with Apple’s Worldwide developer conference going on at present where the major theme is Data Privacy;*


----------



## Ann (8 June 2019)

Wow! Great news for TNY verce! I am so pleased you are not going, you are a pleasure and a delight, we need you here. 

I am going to put up a chart for TNY which shows a Head & Shoulders pattern which is very bearish at the top of a chart, rarely do they fail to resolve in my experience. However, who knows with TNY, it may be a bear trap! 

Perhaps it isn't a head and shoulders pattern at all, maybe it is TNY's golden crown being worn at a jaunty angle! 







This sounds a bit like the theme from Rocky at the beginning!


----------



## verce (8 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Wow! Great news for TNY verce! I am so pleased you are not going, you are a pleasure and a delight, we need you here.
> 
> I am going to put up a chart for TNY which shows a Head & Shoulders pattern which is very bearish at the top of a chart, rarely do they fail to resolve in my experience. However, who knows with TNY, it may be a bear trap!
> 
> ...





The way I see it - the journey of a multi-bagger is filled with ups and downs and all sorts of positive and negative patterns on the chart.

Plus, there is the chance for game-changing news which would dramatically change the chart into a new pattern. The future looks bright to me!


----------



## verce (8 June 2019)




----------



## verce (8 June 2019)




----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 June 2019)




----------



## Ann (8 June 2019)

This is the one I was thinking of verce....against all the odds he won. Love conquers all!


----------



## barney (8 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> I have a lot to add but before I do (relative to the analysis)  Do others think it should stay here or move out of the TNY thread?




I think everyone's opinion on the thread has been of great value … no one needs to go anywhere.

@verce …. Good decision to remain ….. 

The great thing about trading is that the short term technical traders and the longer term fundamental traders can both get rewarded for their positions even though they disagree  Horses for courses!


----------



## tech/a (8 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Why I use the 21d is lost in the mists of time. I have used it forever. I would imagine it was a MA which some of the chartists used when I was first teaching myself to chart over at IC. I have it set on 'Simple', Simple is what the S stands for because Stockcharts which is a massively popular charting program uses simple moving averages of 50 and 200 as its default. As I said at the start, I am attempting to look at what the majority looks at.




A 21 day M/A is 21 periods or a month--This is the only significance it has.
Hardly anyone looks at M/A's let alone the specific one you have chosen (No
matter who that who is).



Ann said:


> Over and over I find the price appears to respond to this time period MA. However it is simply a personal choice and someone else may prefer a different time frame.




If you actually do the testing you'll find that its no better than any other M/A in a 10 period displacement.
What appears to being a bounce is just a coincidence--Fooled By Randomness.



Ann said:


> 42 might be very significant if someone is trying to time the markets ahead of others, I have never used it because the 50day is the popular one. Just want to keep in step.




All an M/A is is a line drawn from the closing price over X periods, nothing more and nothing less. It is a daily record of what HAPPENED to price
it has absolutely no predictive qualities.



Ann said:


> Moving averages can be used as a stop loss level. If it rises back above, that means the stock hasn't capitulated.




Yes it can and in *a system* can and is used as entries and exits. Why because they are identifiable and repeatable lines in the sand that you
can use as a condition.

*Stock hasn't capitulated*
Not so there are no predictive qualities. ALL it means is that today's price (including todays price) has risen back above the 21 day average of price.
It will take many periods before today price and those around today -- appear to have influenced the M/A one way or another. The longer the time frame the harder it is to see.



Ann said:


> I chose $1.40 as a resistance after the price ran up and closed at $1.40 before it fell back on the following days. It had one day where the price closed above this line before it fell back again. This tells me the $1.40 support line is still weak and needs to be able to hold price levels above it. Until that time it remains as a 'resistance' line. I prefer to draw my lines on the End of Day price level. It is simply a personal preference, it has worked better for me over the years and it is often confirmed when Fibonacci levels are used. My support/resistance lines often correspond to Fibonacci levels. It is just a confirmation for me, that I am using a 'popular' line. As I said, I am trying to correspond with what everyone else is looking at.




Highs and lows are often tested.
And this was and is the case with TNY. Its pretty clear with TNY where the boundaries are
As the high has been tested and so has the low and each time price has not made
a convincing or sustained new high or low I would call the high and low support and resistance zones

See chart--- _I would buy and sell in these zones with limited risk--of course in the short term.
If longer term and not liking the possible risk then the upper zone would be of most interest or I may
like to add to my position in the lower zone.----a totally different mindset longer and Shorter term
Same analytic tool!_









Ann said:


> I am not buying into any stocks from now on until the overheads have been resolved on the Aussie and US Indices. I may be stopping too early and lose a bit of the top, but I look for my comfort spot, if the major indices fail and there is a scramble to sell, I have no desire to be caught in the middle.
> 
> I am not going to comment on TNY but I will say that when any of my stocks are breaching the 21dsma I am making an orderly exit.
> 
> All this is totally off topic and time consuming so I won't be repeating lengthy posts like this in the future.




I personally think its dangerous to your profitability not being involved in trading because of *Ifs. *
The XAO is near all time highs and the DJIA is around the mark as well. If you'd have traded near 100% all the way up then you would have no fear
only risk mitigation plans unless you have compelling evidence (Other than testing a high) that there will be a catastrophic capitulation.

So a 21 Day EMA IS one of your exits?

*None of this is off topic* in my view infact its very important that analysis is explained.
Why its chosen and how it effects your views. and of course why I think it shouldnt!!

The pattern you see has a long way to go to becoming a Head and Shoulders.
I dont agree that it is a pattern that is often successful.

http://thepatternsite.com/BustHST.html

Really Good info on Head and shoulders.

http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html


----------



## barney (8 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> *None of this is off topic* in my view infact its very important that analysis is explained.




I agree ……. Everyone's opinion is valuable whether we agree or not, and giving an explanation for those opinions is invaluable.  Great thread!


----------



## verce (8 June 2019)

barney said:


> I agree ……. Everyone's opinion is valuable whether we agree or not, and giving an explanation for those opinions is invaluable.  Great thread!




I honestly think I have created the greatest thread on Aussie Stock Forums. The view count and ratings must be through the roof!

I'm not exaggerating. 

When TNY gets to $2 I will confirm details of the free booze party for @barney and @Ann


----------



## So_Cynical (8 June 2019)

verce said:


> I honestly think I have created the greatest thread on Aussie Stock Forums. The view count and ratings must be through the roof!
> 
> I'm not exaggerating.
> 
> When TNY gets to $2 I will confirm details of the free booze party for @barney and @Ann



Its the weekend have a day off...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 June 2019)

How to read between the lines.

1- Thread starts off with an enthusiastic, carefree guy talking about his investment.  Seems like he's put a big percentage of his total equity on this.

2 - Other posters notice something a bit different in the way he posts and decide to see how stable his vibe is. They do this because subconsciously they know that confidence creates money.  Several tests come in the form of destabilizing questions and comments.  "Are you sure...?"  "Have you considered..?".

3 - Unfazed (test passed).

4 - This causes fascination.  The thread grows as posters try to glom some of the confident vibe for themselves.  Why?  Because a positive vibe creates wealth.  They see it and they want a piece of it.

5 - OP gets a big head...Careful!

You'll see the same themes play out on Modest and Trader Girl threads.  It's the vibe that creates the money.  Method is very much a secondary concern.


----------



## verce (9 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How to read between the lines.
> 
> 1- Thread starts off with an enthusiastic, carefree guy talking about his investment.  Seems like he's put a big percentage of his total equity on this.
> 
> ...




There's not many penny stocks that give you a significant % ownership of a booming tech company situated in New York with:

*- large addressable market
- 80% margins and scalability
- global uptake
- network effect and switching cost effect
- passionate and dedicated management *


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 June 2019)

I don't mean to imply that there's anything wrong with enjoying someone else's confidence or attitude.  Learning through mirroring is fine so long as you can stabilize it in yourself once the object of your learning moves on.  The time-tested method for developing one's _own _confidence through a properly tested technical system.  The other way through a very deep understanding of the fundamental factors of the company, the space it operates in and broader economic factors (OP seems to have this).  At that point you will profit _unless _there are psychological factors which interfere with execution and day-to-day management.

These psychological factors are fear-based (loss, missing out) and unfortunately they are synaptically linked in with aspects of self-esteem and self-worth.  Personally, I believe it's ok to override one's own system if it can be done in a very cool and calculated way  - a mixed system/discretionary approach.  But when it feels highly pressured, when your gut clenches, when you hold your breath...something else is going on.  It's one thing to say "reduce your size to sleeping point", but you won't make much betting small.  Repeated or heavy loss will impact how you feel about yourself, and the problem snowballs because thereafter you will trade in an attempt to re-assert your sense of worth....and that is disastrous.

Some will read this and say "Just stick to your system and you never need to worry about the psychological aspects of trading".  Unfortunately that's not true.  It's hard to explain without getting philosophical, but there is a link between the subconcious and the outer reality each individual experiences.

Trading forces us to discover and become who we _really _are, which means [at first] accessing, allowing and experiencing the full range of emotions which appear spontaneously.  Then, linking these back to early life instances, if you want to go deep.  Basically, reclaiming full possession of your true self.  If you're already highly profitable, then none of the above is necessary; it may even look ridiculous.


----------



## Ann (10 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I don't mean to imply that there's anything wrong with enjoying someone else's confidence or attitude.  Learning through mirroring is fine so long as you can stabilize it in yourself once the object of your learning moves on.  The time-tested method for developing one's _own _confidence through a properly tested technical system.  The other way through a very deep understanding of the fundamental factors of the company, the space it operates in and broader economic factors (OP seems to have this).  At that point you will profit _unless _there are psychological factors which interfere with execution and day-to-day management.
> 
> These psychological factors are fear-based (loss, missing out) and unfortunately they are synaptically linked in with aspects of self-esteem and self-worth.  Personally, I believe it's ok to override one's own system if it can be done in a very cool and calculated way  - a mixed system/discretionary approach.  But when it feels highly pressured, when your gut clenches, when you hold your breath...something else is going on.  It's one thing to say "reduce your size to sleeping point", but you won't make much betting small.  Repeated or heavy loss will impact how you feel about yourself, and the problem snowballs because thereafter you will trade in an attempt to re-assert your sense of worth....and that is disastrous.
> 
> ...




Would I be misrepresenting what you are saying if I condensed your meaning to 'the bigger the ego, the bigger the fear'?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Would I be misrepresenting what you are saying if I condensed your meaning to 'the bigger the ego, the bigger the fear'?



When people use the term "big ego", they're referring to someone with a damaged ego (the ego itself is undeveloped and the compensation is 'big').  The greater the damage, the greater the fear and the more obvious the compensatory and self-sabotaging behaviours.  So yes, that's pretty much it.

Small (retail) players in the market have an obvious advantage over the big institutional players, because the big insto players are usually more psychologically affected by loss.  So long as the markets remain _reasonably _untainted by manipulation, we can retain that edge.  The fact that there are so many powerful competing players in markets, that will ensure they remain reasonably fair.  Our real competitors are the cool, smart, cashed up retail traders.  Guys like minwa and skc, for example.


----------



## Ann (10 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Our real competitors are the cool, smart, cashed up retail traders. Guys like minwa.



I will make this my last comment on the subject as it is taking it away from the threads topic....
Surely the only competition we have is ourselves. Get over your bloody ego/fear of failure and the rest is just good organization, learning from mistakes and time in.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 June 2019)

Ann said:


> I will make this my last comment on the subject as it is taking it away from the threads topic....
> Surely the only competition we have is ourselves. Get over your bloody ego/fear of failure and the rest is just good organization, learning from mistakes and time in.



It's actually right _on _topic for a change.

When you refer to it as 'bloody ego', then you're saying it's bad.  The ego - as your sense of self - needs to be healthy!  You don't heal fear by condemning it or saying: 'just get over it'.  That's not how it works.  If it was easy  then 95% of traders would be profitable rather than 5%.


----------



## Ann (10 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> It's actually right _on _topic for a change.
> 
> When you refer to it as 'bloody ego', then you're saying it's bad.  The ego - as your sense of self - needs to be healthy!  You don't heal fear by condemning it or saying: 'just getting over it'.  That's not how it works.  If it was easy  then 95% of traders would be profitable rather than 5%.




Sorry verce, Gringotts Bank is such a tempter! 

I studied with a brilliant rabbi for many years and he taught ego abnegation to be the ultimate goal. I have worked very hard on this and can attest to its value. What I am doing here trying to win a debate would make him smile gently!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Sorry verce, Gringotts Bank is such a tempter!
> 
> I studied with a brilliant rabbi for many years and he taught ego abnegation to be the ultimate goal. I have worked very hard on this and can attest to its value. What I am doing here trying to win a debate would make him smile gently!



I'm not referring to you in these posts, since I don't know anything about you. 

But one shouldn't try to transcend or renounce the ego until it's first made healthy.  Jung warned against that, having seen the damage a premature delving into the spiritual side can do.  Used incorrectly or prematurely, it is pure escapism.  It's enough for most people to know and enjoy who they are, let alone attempting to transcend that.


----------



## tech/a (10 June 2019)

Fear in trading is easily over come with a capital base that if wiped out 
Would only amount to a small % of nett worth.

Under capitalisation in all endeavours involving capital can lead to worry 
Anxiety and fear. Certainly not limited to trading.

We humans tend to be experts in making and believing simple needs to be as complex as possible.
Life can/is and should be very simple.


----------



## verce (10 June 2019)

Thanks guys - go Tinybeans!


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## Ann (11 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> But one shouldn't try to transcend or renounce the ego until it's first made healthy. Jung warned against that, having seen the damage a premature delving into the spiritual side can do. Used incorrectly or prematurely, it is pure escapism. It's enough for most people to know and enjoy who they are, let alone attempting to transcend that.




This is just an observation, not attempting to mount an argument, your words kept me thinking why ego and fear should be connected. Thank you for stimulating the mental exercise, it was highly enjoyable.

I came to my own place of understanding .....There is the self and there is the ego. The self is who we are and the ego is who we want others to think we are. If there is too much distance between self and ego then there could be fear, defensiveness, anger when our ego is challenged.


----------



## IFocus (11 June 2019)

Just want to comment about risk

Its being covered in the thread already but take a look at the chart below and think about the liquidity of this stock....its a shocker which equals high risk.

Regardless of value, momentum, sentiment, tech analysts etc the liquidity screams very small position size or be prepared for heavy swings absolutely any thing can and will happen.


----------



## tech/a (11 June 2019)

IF
Certainly agree.
Stocks do tend to become a little more liquid when they take off.
But even now under 300,000 shares on a good day.
This isn't a stock that enjoys massive support.






Certainly a specie


----------



## verce (11 June 2019)

*Interesting article in the AFR today - see below*
*
Apple takes a bite out of Facebook and Google's surveillance duopoly*

*Apple leapt from privacy as a product feature into privacy as a service* with the announcement of a new universal sign-in system that features no tracking and no exchange of private information between a user and the service provider.

Speaking to America's CBS News on the announcement, *Apple CEO Tim Cook spoke of his company's escalating argument that privacy is a human right.*

But *by potentially reducing the footprint of Google and Facebook sign-in systems across the internet*, it would act as a countermeasure to their dominance of that 'data industrial complex'.
________________________________________________________________________

This article is relevant because: _"the announcement of *Tinybeans being chosen by Apple* further demonstrates the importance of privacy and is further validation of why Tinybeans might soon become a household name when it comes to privacy in the future"_

Tinybeans is a clear winner when it comes to privacy, and any traction it gets via Apple also helps to break the stranglehold Facebook has on the internet. I have no doubt that Apple will be watching the development of Tinybeans closely in future...






Also - we should get some OTC traction soon - there are a number of illiquid Australian companies listed on OTC such as LNG, PLL and AKP.

Audio Pixels did very well after listing on OTC in the US and the share price and share liquidity soared thereafter.


----------



## sarkisan (11 June 2019)

I sat down with the 2018 annual report tonight and Googled the company quite extensively. Leave aside the issues of liquidity for now and just assume it is a speculative stock, I have a few questions.

1. Why are they paying their employees so much money? The profit and loss shows two years of consecutive losses in the order of $2.08 million and $4.665 million.  They paid $4.1 mil in the last year in salaries and wages.  As a relatively new float, I'd like to see that money being reinvested or spent on marketing to grow the customer base. 

2. Is this product really necessary? Can't people just email photos and videos these days? What convenience does the app provide?

3. I read management talk about the difficulty breaking into the Australian market and getting consumer/investor support.  Australia is an inherently risk-averse country. Yes, speculators and market makers exist but people are more likely to pour money into an ETF than on a product like this, no?

That said, I think the US growth is impressive.


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 June 2019)

sarkisan said:


> Is this product really necessary? Can't people just email photos and videos these days? What convenience does the app provide?
> 
> ...Australia is an inherently risk-averse country.
> 
> ...the US growth is impressive.




is the internet really necessary? define "necessary"

Aussies in toto are inherently loving gambling betting and wagering, love the horses n footy and two-up, cards, tennis, wombat racing and betting on who can nail the big red at the bottom of the paddock first

yes, the US, impressive....maybe that's the reason staff get the big bux


----------



## verce (12 June 2019)

Traffic improving considerably in May. We've jumped 10,000 pages in front on the entire worldwide web.






And new traction in Poland - seems to gradually be taken up across Europe with no marketing spend.


----------



## verce (12 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> View attachment 94675




I eagerly await the day the Duck returns to the flock.


----------



## verce (12 June 2019)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...y/news-story/a4070d3997fdc6589fe89401fb1775de


----------



## verce (13 June 2019)

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/from-tinybeans-big-things-grow.html

"We see ourselves to be much more of* a family platform where you can access content, products and services based on the age and stage of your kid*," Geller tells _Business News Australia_. 

"We see that as being a sizeable business and you don't need a hundred million people for that - *we could have five million super active users and we could be a $100 million business on our way to $1 billion*."

"*Companies approach us all the time* [to sell data] and we decline that's not our business model. We were private before privacy on the web was an important thing - it's always been a part of the DNA and it's always going to be there."

"*The way we do advertising is brands come to us* and they want to get to a certain target we'll work with them, we'll craft content, we'll craft messaging and then we'll add them to our platform and we'll message our user directly," says Geller.

"This *technology offers trends and insights that companies have never been able to access before*. It's all about understanding how families are developing and how behaviours are developing in families and households."

*"If there are other competitors out there I think it's a good thing for the industry and it's a good thing for us - I'm a big believer of staying paranoid, being innovative and thinking beyond what we have today."*

"When we're still a rock in their shoe I don't think we'll get much attention. *We really want to build a phenomenally amazing business and I've always believed and building a great business and lots of people want to be a part of it.*

*"I've always been a believer that you never create something to be sold; you create something that is amazing that always people want to buy.*

He says the founders have a big mission ahead and believes there "nothing out there that's doing the job we believe we can create".

"Hopefully we can build it with the patience, perseverance and grit that have got us here today," he says.


----------



## verce (13 June 2019)

verce said:


> https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/from-tinybeans-big-things-grow.html
> 
> "We see ourselves to be much more of* a family platform where you can access content, products and services based on the age and stage of your kid*," Geller tells _Business News Australia_.
> 
> ...




My future price target of $3 or 100m market cap was not crazy after all!


----------



## tech/a (15 June 2019)

Bit of a chart update.


----------



## verce (15 June 2019)

Thanks for the update!


----------



## Ann (15 June 2019)

Hello verce, I was wondering what I could possibly draw for you today that might be interesting... As TNY is getting older we can start looking at the weekly chart. This is an interesting exercise for me also. I am currently re-writing my trading plan from a long term investor of buy and hold to a shorter term trader of buy in/close out at a certain point according to my plan (still being written).

If we look at two charts today, one chart has two moving averages of 9 and 21 days drawn Exponentially and the second chart has those same moving averages of 9 and 21 drawn Simply.
On the exponential MAs you can see there has been no crossing of the two lines but on the simple moving average there has been a cross over. Why does this matter? There are some traders who use a moving average cross as an indicator for entry or exit of a stock. This is certainly one indicator I am planning to use for short term trading. As this is a good signal for an automatic decision devoid of judgement and emotion it can create a mass movement in a stock as people exit or enter.

Looking at the first Exponential weekly chart, no cross so another week a trader may stay in the stock. However if that person follows the Simple moving averages there has in fact been a cross and it is a potential exit signal for him this week.

I use a Simple MA on my charts, this is an area I am going to have to examine in detail as to whether it is the best choice or if Exponential would be a better choice. If TNY continues upward then I might start examining Exponential a bit closer as a better choice. Time will tell! So much fun, I love this stuff. 

I am using OHLC on my Weekly charts for TNY this week in order not to confuse with an End of Day price line or candles which will cover too much of the information.


----------



## verce (15 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Hello verce, I was wondering what I could possibly draw for you today that might be interesting... As TNY is getting older we can start looking at the weekly chart. This is an interesting exercise for me also. I am currently re-writing my trading plan from a long term investor of buy and hold to a shorter term trader of buy in/close out at a certain point according to my plan (still being written).
> 
> If we look at two charts today, one chart has two moving averages of 9 and 21 days drawn Exponentially and the second chart has those same moving averages of 9 and 21 drawn Simply.
> On the exponential MAs you can see there has been no crossing of the two lines but on the simple moving average there has been a cross over. Why does this matter? There are some traders who use a moving average cross as an indicator for entry or exit of a stock. This is certainly one indicator I am planning to use for short term trading. As this is a good signal for an automatic decision devoid of judgement and emotion it can create a mass movement in a stock as people exit or enter.
> ...




Thanks @Ann - always appreciate your updates!


----------



## verce (16 June 2019)

Lots of buzz on Twitter!


----------



## verce (17 June 2019)

I’m getting bored of this stock - and that’s a good thing.


----------



## willoneau (17 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Hello verce, I was wondering what I could possibly draw for you today that might be interesting... As TNY is getting older we can start looking at the weekly chart. This is an interesting exercise for me also. I am currently re-writing my trading plan from a long term investor of buy and hold to a shorter term trader of buy in/close out at a certain point according to my plan (still being written).
> 
> If we look at two charts today, one chart has two moving averages of 9 and 21 days drawn Exponentially and the second chart has those same moving averages of 9 and 21 drawn Simply.
> On the exponential MAs you can see there has been no crossing of the two lines but on the simple moving average there has been a cross over. Why does this matter? There are some traders who use a moving average cross as an indicator for entry or exit of a stock. This is certainly one indicator I am planning to use for short term trading. As this is a good signal for an automatic decision devoid of judgement and emotion it can create a mass movement in a stock as people exit or enter.
> ...



I wouldn't use MA crosses as an entry, they don't work over the longer term.
The wipsaw when market goes sideways kills you.


----------



## verce (17 June 2019)

willoneau said:


> I wouldn't use MA crosses as an entry, they don't work over the longer term.
> The wipsaw when market goes sideways kills you.




I have a system for you. It’s called buying and holding a great company when you find one. Your returns will always be superior.


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## willoneau (17 June 2019)

verce said:


> I have a system for you. It’s called buying and holding a great company when you find one. Your returns will always be superior.



Superior to?
that sounds like a system used by investors?


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## tech/a (18 June 2019)

Someone has turned the light on 
Volume average so just as likely to Goff again sooner than later


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## verce (18 June 2019)

After 27 pages I have come to the conclusion that you guys have no idea what you are talking about.


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## tech/a (18 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> Someone has turned the light on
> Volume average so just as likely to Goff again sooner than later




Go off meaning come off I can’t see this being a sustained move
Still in the V/C control zone


----------



## verce (18 June 2019)

tech/a said:


> Go off meaning come off I can’t see this being a sustained


----------



## verce (19 June 2019)




----------



## barney (19 June 2019)

Chart still looks positive to me. If it breaks above the current short term Range, I think it will retest the recent highs without too much fanfare. ……


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## verce (19 June 2019)

Thanks @barney - I'll have ice cold beer ready for you.


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## Ann (19 June 2019)

willoneau said:


> I wouldn't use MA crosses as an entry, they don't work over the longer term.
> The wipsaw when market goes sideways kills you.



Heavens no Will, I use an MA cross above a resistance line for an entry. The exercise I was doing was simply reviewing EMA as opposed to SMA. I like to see an MA squeeze, not a cross. I prefer to test my thoughts forward rather than backtest an idea. I was just looking at something which I think has now been confirmed for me. Go with EMA on the faster MAs. Sorry folks that all sounds like gobildigook to non-chartists. 

Now back to TNY....bless the dear soul! It may have turned out to be a golden crown and not a Head&Shoulders after all verce! 

It was very heartening to see it climb back above that resistance/support line of $1.16. I have drawn a new trendline, let's see if it offers some rising support. Looking at the Weekly Twiggs Money flow it has remained above the 0% line and is lifting slightly. Looks like the TNY holders are remaining staunch so far. 









verce said:


> I’m getting bored of this stock - and that’s a good thing.




Don't do that verce, TNY needs your love!


----------



## verce (19 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Heavens no Will, I use an MA cross above a resistance line for an entry. The exercise I was doing was simply reviewing EMA as opposed to SMA. I like to see an MA squeeze, not a cross. I prefer to test my thoughts forward rather than backtest an idea. I was just looking at something which I think has now been confirmed for me. Go with EMA on the faster MAs. Sorry folks that all sounds like gobildigook to non-chartists.
> 
> Now back to TNY....bless the dear soul! It may have turned out to be a golden crown and not a Head&Shoulders after all verce!
> 
> ...





Thanks @Ann - I may be getting bored but I'm not giving up. It's in the bottom draw!


----------



## willoneau (19 June 2019)

Ann, interesting idea to use the MA crossing over your resistance as a entry signal. Do you enter straight away or since price should be well above the resistance wait for a bounce off that resistance on a pull back?


----------



## verce (19 June 2019)

Seller @ 1.335 getting chewed up.

I predict it will be obliterated by the end of the day.


----------



## Ann (19 June 2019)

willoneau said:


> Ann, interesting idea to use the MA crossing over your resistance as a entry signal. Do you enter straight away or since price should be well above the resistance wait for a bounce off that resistance on a pull back?



 I prefer to wait for confirmation of support but the pull back may not get back to resistance. It just needs to stay above resistance. In this case the price slipped below resistance but then resumed its place above resistance and above the MA.  It isn't the perfect way to enter but I have yet to find the perfect entry (and exit) WIP!


----------



## verce (19 June 2019)

Ann said:


> I prefer to wait for confirmation of support but the pull back may not get back to resistance. It just needs to stay above resistance. In this case the price slipped below resistance but then resumed its place above resistance and above the MA.  It isn't the perfect way to enter but I have yet to find the perfect entry (and exit) WIP!
> 
> View attachment 95562




Looks like a bullish chart to me! But I am a simple man. If I see lines going upwards - that's a good thing.


----------



## Ann (19 June 2019)

verce said:


> Looks like a bullish chart to me! But I am a simple man. If I see lines going upwards - that's a good thing.




Got it verce! I think we will make a chartist of you yet. The biggest secret to charting is KISS. Lines going up, lines going across, lines going down. Everything else is window dressing!


----------



## barney (19 June 2019)

verce said:


> Seller @ 1.335 getting chewed up.
> 
> I predict it will be obliterated by the end of the day.




Its a bit tricky to read this one at times.  Whoever is controlling the 374 BOT is dictating where the price will go at the moment.  He has been accumulating to as high as $1.33 this morning, but has now joined the sell side and dropped his buy orders to as low as $1.155 …. It looks like accumulation and if it is they will want their quota before pushing it higher ….. The good thing for holders is there seems bugger all Sellers interested at less than $1.26 …… 

As long as it stays above $1.19-$1.20 today (yesterdays Volume area) its behaving ok. I think they are all at lunch at the moment though


----------



## verce (19 June 2019)




----------



## verce (20 June 2019)

New Substantial Shareholder today - a high net worth individual who recognises the potential here.

Big endorsement and big validation.


----------



## peter2 (21 June 2019)

TNY may finally have enough volume to make it through my week end scans. Not certain, we'll see. The reason I'm posting is that the daily chart is looking quite bullish. There's not enough daily volume traded for me yet, but there may be if price breaks through 1.50 resistance.


----------



## MARKETWINNER (22 June 2019)

verce said:


>




When evaluating companies, once characteristic that Peter Lynch finds particularly favorable is:
There is a low percentage of shares held by institutions, and there is low analyst coverage--Bargains can be found among firms neglected by Wall Street.


----------



## verce (22 June 2019)

MARKETWINNER said:


> When evaluating companies, once characteristic that Peter Lynch finds particularly favorable is:
> There is a low percentage of shares held by institutions, and there is low analyst coverage--Bargains can be found among firms neglected by Wall Street.




Well said! Really admire Peter Lynch and there’s a great video of his I linked earlier in the thread.

Feel like I’m on to a winner here!


----------



## verce (22 June 2019)

peter2 said:


> TNY may finally have enough volume to make it through my week end scans. Not certain, we'll see. The reason I'm posting is that the daily chart is looking quite bullish. There's not enough daily volume traded for me yet, but there may be if price breaks through 1.50 resistance.
> 
> View attachment 95598




Liquidity should hopefully increase with price.


----------



## aus_trader (23 June 2019)

Don't want to bring the mood down on this party.

But when it comes to "smallest, most illiquid stocks"  being talked about I have a concern so let's bring a spoonful of reality here. Most of these type of stocks end up in the bin and either disappear bankrupt or sit in the dusty closet forever without being discovered. Unless verce brings out one of these out of the closet and dusts it off and wears it out proudly so that people start to notice...

So what's the track record like when there is such hyped talk about owning the "smallest, most illiquid, least institutionally owned" stocks ? Winning or just talking sh#it ?


----------



## verce (23 June 2019)

aus_trader said:


> Don't want to bring the mood down on this party.
> 
> But when it comes to "smallest, most illiquid stocks"  being talked about I have a concern so let's bring a spoonful of reality here. Most of these type of stocks end up in the bin and either disappear bankrupt or sit in the dusty closet forever without being discovered. Unless verce brings out one of these out of the closet and dusts it off and wears it out proudly so that people start to notice...
> 
> So what's the track record like when there is such hyped talk about owning the "smallest, most illiquid, least institutionally owned" stocks ? Winning or just talking sh#it ?




Looks like we all fell for the classic bull trap from 20 cents to $1.30 - thank you for saving us from our folly!


----------



## aus_trader (23 June 2019)

verce said:


> Looks like we all fell for the classic bull trap from 20 cents to $1.30 - thank you for saving us from our folly!



I am not talking about TNY. This is a one off. I would not have bought it at the 20c level because the bid to ask was wider than the Grand Canyon. Even now it can be pretty wide, I've seen it as much as 10c apart even though the price is above $1. Like P2, I may consider it if the volumes increase and there is tight bid/ask spread so that it can be bought and sold cost effectively.

What I am interested in is comments from "Ian Cassel" that was posted. Is there any evidence that overall performance from shares bought in the ""smallest, most illiquid stocks"" is profitable if every purchase is considered over a period of time (and not Cherry Picked for winners only) ?


----------



## verce (23 June 2019)

aus_trader said:


> I am not talking about TNY. This is a one off. I would not have bought it at the 20c level because the bid to ask was wider than the Grand Canyon. Even now it can be pretty wide, I've seen it as much as 10c apart even though the price is above $1. Like P2, I may consider it if the volumes increase and there is tight bid/ask spread so that it can be bought and sold cost effectively.
> 
> What I am interested in is comments from "Ian Cassel" that was posted. Is there any evidence that overall performance from shares bought in the ""smallest, most illiquid stocks"" is profitable if every purchase is considered over a period of time (and not Cherry Picked for winners only) ?




I think Ian has a good track record on microcaps - the folks over at Ethical Equities (https://ethicalequities.com.au/) follow a similar method with great results.

I recommend reading:

https://twitter.com/claudedwalker

https://twitter.com/Fabregasto

And there's a great post about their general approach here:

https://ethicalequities.com.au/blog/the-gent-manifesto-my-journey-and-investment-process/

Sorry if I came off a bit snarky - I was just trying to be funny!


----------



## aus_trader (23 June 2019)

verce said:


> I think Ian has a good track record on microcaps - the folks over at Ethical Equities (https://ethicalequities.com.au/) follow a similar method with great results.
> 
> I recommend reading:
> 
> ...




All good vercey, I understand the humor. I wasn't having a go either but I am skeptical when people make comments like that. Because I know from personal experience what happens to a lot of the ultra-speculative investments that have exactly those characteristics mentioned: ""smallest, most illiquid, least institutionally owned"".

Well done on the TNY run so far... As I said these days I wait for the share to have sufficient liquidity and trading volume, similar to what was mentioned by peter2 earlier. TNY is getting up there so I may have a bite and see what happens in the near future.

I'll have a look at past performance if I can access it from your links provided. Thanks.


----------



## verce (24 June 2019)




----------



## verce (30 June 2019)

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...hoto-sharing-app-booming-20190629-p522gp.html

*'Walled garden of secrecy': private Aussie photo-sharing app booming*

*New York: *Politicians, tech leaders and increasingly self-aware parents are turning to an Australian-born app to privately share their most treasured moments with loved ones.

*Treasurer Josh Frydenberg*, *the family of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and former Yahoo! executive Marissa Mayer* are among the three million global users of Tinybeans, one of the world's most popular family photo sharing platforms.

Earlier this month, Apple named Tinybeans its App of the Day, giving it huge global exposure, sending the now New York-based company’s share price soaring.

With its strict privacy settings and focus on intimacy rather than building the profile of influencers, the app is also riding a wave of Facebook scandals and security fears over who can access and use our data.

Tinybeans came about when Stephen O’Young created a website to track key milestones in the development of his eldest son, who experienced speech delays. When his son’s speech improved, he let the website go idle. When his third son was born in 2011, he faced a fresh challenge.






Tinybeans founders Sarah-Jane Kurtini, Eddie Geller and Stephen O'Young (L-R) at their New York headquarters.

"My friends were blogging about their kids and organising their photos really nicely," he says. "I was guilty because I had never done that for my children. I felt like a bad parent. But I’m not a writer and thought I was too busy to blog."

Smartphones were starting to take off so O’Young, who was working as a software designer for big insurance firms like Allianz and IAG, tried designing a mobile app – a digital calendar where he could post photos of his boy.  He soon shared the app with his parents, who live on the other side of Sydney. “I realised this was not just a keepsake for myself but a way to keep my family involved with my kids’ lives," he says. "I thought other parents could use this as well."

Through word-of-mouth and the help of a start-up incubator program in Sydney, Tinybeans was born.

The company's head of marketing, Sarah-Jane Kurtini, attended a lunch in Manhattan earlier this month and was surprised to hear guest speaker Frydenberg declare himself an avid user. "We have been using it since 2015 when my first child was born – we love it," Frydenberg says. "My wife updates it every day. I had no idea that it was Australian..."

Malcolm Turnbull's daughter, Daisy Turnbull-Brown,  also uses the app to share photos and track milestones of her two young children."It protects teenagers – when they get Instagram or Facebook there won’t already be thousands of photos of them on there," she says.

Kurtini says the app is especially popular with parents who travel regularly for work or have parents living overseas. "People tell us they use our app as a happy place to go. If you think about where you want your kids’ photos to be it probably isn’t sandwiched between someone’s angry political posts and a bunch of silly memes."

If you think about where you want your kids’ photos to be it isn’t sandwiched between angry political posts and a bunch of silly memes.

Sarah-Jane Kurtini
She says the company has benefited from recent scandals at Facebook, including the revelation it may have improperly shared the data of up to 87 million users with an analytics firm tied to US President Donald Trump's 2016 election campaign.

One of Tinybeans' big selling points is privacy – no-one can see a user's photos, or even that they have an account, unless they are invited to do so. Users retain ownership over everything they post on the platform. "Our app is like a walled garden of secrecy," chief executive Eddie Geller says. "People really appreciate that they can’t be found."

Most users limit their network to grandparents, aunts and uncles and close friends. Kurtini says this allows people to post as many photos as they want without having to worry about "spamming" acquaintances and colleagues with 20 baby pictures a day.

Tinybeans now has advertising partnerships with major brands like Lego, Pottery Barn and Macmillan Publishers. But the transition from Sydney start-up to global player wasn't easy.

"People love the privacy we offer but as a marketer it is one of your worst nightmares," Kurtini says.

In its early expansion phase, the company failed to win the backing of venture capitalists in Silicon Valley.

"We're not using drones or autonomous vehicles, we're not flashy," Geller says. "We are going against the grain with social media, which has all been about maximising reach. Our growth has been slow and steady."

Monopolies – Google for search, Amazon for online shopping – dominate the digital era, but the family and parenting space remains fragmented and competitive. Tinybeans is competing with similar family photo sharing apps such as 23 Snaps and Lifecake for market share.

O’Young says the sector is flourishing because parents are increasingly reluctant to engage in the "glamorisation of parenting".

"Social media has added so much pressure on parents to show this sanitised version of their life, to make out that you’ve got everything together. Mums and dads have come to appreciate that sharing too much of their lives on social media is not such a great thing."


----------



## Miner (1 July 2019)

With its strict privacy settings and focus on intimacy rather than building the profile of influencers, the app is also riding a wave of Facebook scandals and security fears over who can access and use our data.

Tinybeans came about when Stephen O’Young created a website to track key milestones in the development of his eldest son, who experienced speech delays. When his son’s speech improved, he let the website go idle. When his third son was born in 2011, he faced a fresh challenge.





Tinybeans founders Sarah-Jane Kurtini, Eddie Geller and Stephen O'Young (L-R) at their New York headquarters.

"
*One of Tinybeans' big selling points is privac*y – no-one can see a user's photos, or even that they have an account, unless they are invited to do so. Users retain ownership over everything they post on the platform. "Our app is like a walled garden of secrecy," chief executive Eddie Geller says. "People really appreciate that they can’t be found."

Most users limit their network to grandparents, aunts and uncles and close friends. Kurtini says this allows people to post as many photos as they want without having to worry about "spamming" acquaintances and colleagues with 20 baby pictures a day.

Tinybeans now has advertising partnerships with major brands like Lego, Pottery Barn and Macmillan Publishers. But the transition from Sydney start-up to global player wasn't easy.

"*People love the privacy we offer but as a marketer it is one of your worst nightmar*es," Kurtini says.


"Social media has added so much pressure on parents to show this sanitised version of their life, to make out that you’ve got everything together. Mums and dads have come to appreciate that sharing too much of their lives on social media is not such a great thing."[/QUOTE]
First of all TNY has proved to be a great stock for many and awarded with lots of fun and money.
My salute.
I was however confused to laugh or cry when reading company's tall claim on privacy.
The way I saw by disclosing the identities of


verce said:


> https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...hoto-sharing-app-booming-20190629-p522gp.html
> 
> *'Walled garden of secrecy': private Aussie photo-sharing app booming*
> 
> ...




TNY has proved to be a great stock. It has rewarded the believers. Hats off to them and the believers.
I am not a holder.
I am however perplexed at the tall claim of the company to protect privacies of its customers.
If they are walking the talk then who is protecting the privacy of the Treasurer and ex-PM and their families? Is the CEO of TNY in a way using those names to market and deemed sponsors? 
What happens when one company uses a government minister as its promoters ??? 
I do not unfortunately now believe the claims to protect the privacy of its customers. Sorry TNY - no matter how much you reward the shareholders - I am out of investing money on TNY. Of course, that is my call and decision. Not blaming any one
*" Treasurer Josh Frydenberg*, *the family of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and former Yahoo! executive Marissa Mayer* are among the three million global users of Tinybeans, one of the world's most popular family photo sharing platforms."


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 July 2019)

Facebook and Google trackers on their website.  Please explain?


----------



## tech/a (2 July 2019)

Mate ----- Ignore is a breath of fresh air.
Keeps out all the HOT air.


----------



## barney (2 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Mate ----- Ignore is a breath of fresh air.
> Keeps out all the HOT air.




Very diplomatically and delicately stated Tech ….. no one was implicated … I'm impressed

@verce    Just as an example, I'm kind of a bit older than some around here and I honestly can hardly work out how to drive facebook  …….  I think @Gringotts Bank was asking a genuine question, and given my lack of social media savvy, i'm actually genuinely interested in the answer …..

ie.  Is there any chance of Tiny's security being compromised in being linked to Facebook etc ….. I assume there isn't, but I still don't understand the technicalities and would welcome the education


----------



## HelloU (2 July 2019)

barney said:


> Very diplomatically and delicately stated Tech ….. no one was implicated … I'm impressed
> 
> @verce    Just as an example, I'm kind of a bit older than some around here and I honestly can hardly work out how to drive facebook  …….  I think @Gringotts Bank was asking a genuine question, and given my lack of social media savvy, i'm actually genuinely interested in the answer …..
> 
> ie.  Is there any chance of Tiny's security being compromised in being linked to Facebook etc ….. I assume there isn't, but I still don't understand the technicalities and would welcome the education





quick answer is no problem (noting there is always a risk).

this is a login thing, not an actual use thing. You are not using facebook to look at ur tinybeans stuff, rather u r using your (identification) known identification authorisations at facebook to tell tinybeans that it is indeed you that is trying to get into tinybeans (because u have previously allowed this to occur and told everyone involved who u r thru cookies and tokens and junk that they each recognise and accept as being u). The stuff u then access at tinybeans does not "transit"  thru facebook.

called "single sign on" if u want to look (not an expert so disregard all i say)

aside: u really should use a browser master password for the storage of same inside ur browser (look in ur browser options thingo)


----------



## tech/a (2 July 2019)

barney said:


> Very diplomatically and delicately stated Tech




Always been a strong point Barney


----------



## verce (2 July 2019)

HelloU said:


> quick answer is no problem (noting there is always a risk).
> 
> this is a login thing, not an actual use thing. You are not using facebook to look at ur tinybeans stuff, rather u r using your (identification) known identification authorisations at facebook to tell tinybeans that it is indeed you that is trying to get into tinybeans (because u have previously allowed this to occur and told everyone involved who u r thru cookies and tokens and junk that they each recognise and accept as being u). The stuff u then access at tinybeans does not "transit"  thru facebook.
> 
> ...




This is correct. What people are seeing on their ad-blockers (or whatever the case may be) is the standard Google Ad tracking stuff. Entirely harmless and does not compromise privacy at all.

When you log in to Tinybeans itself, your personal data is entirely segregated and kept on the Amazon Web Services cloud with military-grade security, which meet the requirements of even the most security-sensitive organisations.


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

Broke 12k ratings and Trending in Lifestyle category. Great job!


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

*Institutions *onboard!


----------



## HelloU (3 July 2019)

HelloU said:


> quick answer is no problem (noting there is always a risk).
> 
> this is a login thing, not an actual use thing. You are not using facebook to look at ur tinybeans stuff, rather u r using your (identification) known identification authorisations at facebook to tell tinybeans that it is indeed you that is trying to get into tinybeans (because u have previously allowed this to occur and told everyone involved who u r thru cookies and tokens and junk that they each recognise and accept as being u). The stuff u then access at tinybeans does not "transit"  thru facebook.
> 
> ...



did the posts in the thread change? i thought someone was asking about a "login" via facebook (i cannot find that anymore - maybe it never existed?)  
so i prattled on about sso and now take my post back ....i just (for the very 1st time) opened the GB post attachment to see dynamic filtering so nothing to add here on any of that.


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

No need to take your post back @HelloU - you were spot on and correct!


----------



## barney (3 July 2019)

HelloU said:


> ....i just (for the very 1st time) opened the GB post attachment to see dynamic filtering





verce said:


> No need to take your post back @HelloU - you were spot on and correct!




Thanks for the clarification gentlemen


----------



## tech/a (3 July 2019)

Haven’t been here for a while 
Nothing seems to have changed 
For TNY still languishing


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Haven’t been here for a while
> Nothing seems to have changed
> For TNY still languishing




Looks to me like we have reached the point of utter capitulation. General sentiment has turned very negative, and the majority of posters have bearish perspectives.

Most interesting!


----------



## willoneau (3 July 2019)

Hi verce , what is your perspective?
with all the positive articles you post how do they help you?


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

willoneau said:


> Hi verce , what is your perspective?
> with all the positive articles you post how do they help you?




My general observation is that the vast majority in this thread would like to see TNY fail, and do everything in their power to put a negative slant on things. Sometimes it’s deliberate and subtle, other times the negative assessment stems from a misunderstanding or lack of knowledge.

Technology stocks are just not well understood in Australia. People would rather invest in companies that dig up rocks out of the ground.


----------



## Knobby22 (3 July 2019)

verce said:


> Looks to me like we have reached the point of utter capitulation. General sentiment has turned very negative, and the majority of posters have bearish perspectives.
> 
> Most interesting!




Nah, capitulation would mean a much bigger fall, it's forming a base.
When a share price triples it needs a breather.


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Nah, capitulation would mean a much bigger fall, it's forming a base.
> When a share price triples it needs a breather.




That’s good news. A welcome change. We will see how the company is tracking in about 3 weeks when the next quarterly is out.


----------



## Boggo (3 July 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Nah, capitulation would mean a much bigger fall, it's forming a base.
> When a share price triples it needs a breather.




(click to expand)


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

Boggo said:


> (click to expand)
> View attachment 95894




Is this a bull flag which heralds a golden bull run?!


----------



## Boggo (3 July 2019)

verce said:


> Is this a bull flag which heralds a golden bull run?!




You seem to be all over this, you tell us what you know about this pattern


----------



## verce (3 July 2019)

Boggo said:


> You seem to be all over this, you tell us what you know about this pattern




Is it a bullish pennant formation?


----------



## tech/a (3 July 2019)

Ho Hum


----------



## aus_trader (3 July 2019)

verce said:


> My general observation is that the vast majority in this thread would like to see TNY fail, and do everything in their power to put a negative slant on things. Sometimes it’s deliberate and subtle, other times the negative assessment stems from a misunderstanding or lack of knowledge.
> 
> Technology stocks are just not well understood in Australia. People would rather invest in companies that dig up rocks out of the ground.



Perhaps tech stocks are misunderstood by most of us here down-under, after all there are very few of them to look at listed on the asx (compared to the plethora of mining specs for example).

I don't think anyone is wishing for TNY to fail or have a negative sentiment towards it, they do question their findings which is reasonable in my opinion. If there is interesting technology developments whether it is TNY related or otherwise it would be interesting for people who are not aware, I believe. As barney said this is interesting to watch and I may learn something in the process of being an observer.


----------



## willoneau (3 July 2019)

I don't think anyone here who doesn't have a vested interest in TNY care either way. Sometimes things are much clearer on the sidelines. My only concern is i feel you seem to be relieved when you get positive comments yet upset when negative?
Boggo's chart shows it can go either way, I would be interested in what you have planned in both directions?


----------



## verce (7 July 2019)

willoneau said:


> I don't think anyone here who doesn't have a vested interest in TNY care either way. Sometimes things are much clearer on the sidelines. My only concern is i feel you seem to be relieved when you get positive comments yet upset when negative?
> Boggo's chart shows it can go either way, I would be interested in what you have planned in both directions?




The fact of the matter it is, there are very few B2C stocks listed on the ASX, so TNY doesn't resonate with your average investor. It's not iron ore or infant formula, so people tune out to the huge potential here.

The US market would value TNY at many times its current valuation for its state of progress - especially when they are closing revenue contracts with Fortune 500 companies. Not bad for a *MICROCAP *stock.


----------



## basilio (7 July 2019)

verce said:


> The fact of the matter it is, there are very few B2C stocks listed on the ASX, so TNY doesn't resonate with your average investor. It's not iron ore or infant formula, so people tune out to the huge potential here.
> 
> The US market would value TNY at many times its current valuation for its state of progress - especially when they are closing revenue contracts with Fortune 500 companies. Not bad for a *MICROCAP *stock.




In which case the ultimate value of TNY will be very big indeed. If one believes in its value this is the time to take a position.

The fact that other investors don't necessarily see this potential right now just means it might take longer for the market to price it accurately. But it should still be a success no ?


----------



## verce (7 July 2019)

basilio said:


> In which case the ultimate value of TNY will be very big indeed. If one believes in its value this is the time to take a position.
> 
> The fact that other investors don't necessarily see this potential right now just means it might take longer for the market to price it accurately. But it should still be a success no ?




Hi @basilio 

Absolutely agree 100%

I've found the most profitable positions I've ever held have been when everyone dismissed the stock and held it in contempt.

The majority of people stay poor, and it's the minority who become wealthy. Being a contrarian pays off. I strongly believe I am on to a winner here. History will judge me accordingly.


----------



## kenny (7 July 2019)

verce said:


> The US market would value TNY at many times its current valuation for its state of progress - especially when they are closing revenue contracts with Fortune 500 companies. Not bad for a *MICROCAP *stock.




Have the TNY management ever talked about an eventual US listing to capitalise on this?


----------



## verce (10 July 2019)

kenny said:


> Have the TNY management ever talked about an eventual US listing to capitalise on this?




From the recent investor call:

*"We are definitely constantly talking to new people about the story to invest. In terms of a placement, the company is not currently raising capital, as the company has enough cash to fund its operations and is very focused on getting to cashflow break even*. Having said that, the board is evaluating all sorts of growth options. There's a variety of options that may present at the next three, six, twelve months and there will be options to potentially accelerate things with a placement. It's not something we're actively doing at the moment. I really feel through the activity we're doing, through broadening the story, especially with U.S. investors, *we’ve really had amazing interest here that I think will start to really come up in the next three to six months.* That's really the strategy today. Then, potentially there might be something we do based on capital in the future, but the board will evaluate that as we see it."

"We've been talking to the regulatory authorities to be over the counter traded so U.S. residents will be able to participate in and buy the stock in the U.S. *We're actually in the thick of the process at the moment and are hoping that over the next one to three months we'll get all the approvals and clearances to be able to be traded over the counter*. It would be a secondary listing as they call it. Obviously, the primary listing is ASX, but U.S. residents will be able to trade, and U.S. investors will be able to buy and sell the stock in the U.S. without having to have an Australian brokerage account. This is something we're excited by because even with most of our audiences in the U.S. and most of our revenue in the U.S., it definitely gives the appeal to U.S. investors."


----------



## verce (10 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Ho Hum
> 
> View attachment 95897




Buyers are returning. Not over yet!


----------



## Knobby22 (10 July 2019)

I'm waiting for the results report before I consider buying in.


----------



## verce (13 July 2019)

https://www.dmxam.com.au/27_06_19_asymetric_returns_from_nano-caps.html

*A success story – Tinybeans Group (TNY) *

Having followed the progress of TNY for some time, and after constructive engagement with management, we acquired a small position in TNY at the start of the April at 35c. On our forecasts it was significantly undervalued for a very fast-growing business that was rapidly becoming a significant (3 million plus users) global social media platform. It had been heavily sold off since its IPO at $1 two years ago yet was now in a far stronger position. User numbers had tripled since the IPO, and the company was consistently reporting triple digit revenue growth. As a result, at a $10m enterprise value, we viewed the downside as limited, and the upside as significant. 

Since our initial entry, the company has signed a milestone advertising contract with Lego. While not that meaningful in dollar terms, Lego is high profile and provides credibility. The announcement certainly excited the market and was the catalyst that drove the price higher (currently $1.20). With such low liquidity, violent moves up and down are not uncommon in this space.

The current market cap of ~$40m is still low relative to many other fast growing, market leading, ASX businesses with a global addressable market and substantial ‘blue sky’. Our position here is now ‘free-carried’ and we still see material upside if growth continues resulting in TNY becoming a significant global family platform


----------



## verce (14 July 2019)

*





Huggies* (Market Cap of parent company Kimberly-Clark *~$47.71B USD*)

*Burt’s Bees Baby* (Market Cap of parent Company Clorox *~$20.13B USD*)

*Auvi-Q* (Market Cap of parent company Kaleo not listed, but likely a multi-billion-dollar pharmaceutical company in the US) 

*Lovevery* (Market Cap not listed, but likely in the millions of dollars and is a family-oriented company fits with TNY’s profile)

*Ladder* (Market Cap not listed, but is a life insurance start-up in California that has raised over $54M in funding from investors)

*Apparent Insurance* (Market Cap unclear, but family-oriented company fits with TNY’s profile)

*If you don't see the value in Tinybeans closing revenue contracts with these massive US companies, that's on you.*


----------



## willoneau (25 July 2019)

Hi Verce, just touching bases with you wondering how TNY is going and your thoughts?


----------



## barney (1 August 2019)

Cap raise at $1 ….. that's pretty positive. The sophisticated chaps should proceed to push this up again now


----------



## verce (1 August 2019)

barney said:


> Cap raise at $1 ….. that's pretty positive. The sophisticated chaps should proceed to push this up again now




Pleased to see Thorney on-board. They clearly see this as an investable proposition.

Guess @galumay was wrong. Who would have thought?


----------



## Knobby22 (1 August 2019)

verce said:


> Pleased to see Thorney on-board. They clearly see this as an investable proposition.
> 
> Guess @galumay was wrong. Who would have thought?



Yes, Thorney is a big plus.


----------



## barney (1 August 2019)

verce said:


> Pleased to see Thorney on-board. They clearly see this as an investable proposition.
> 
> Guess @galumay was wrong. Who would have thought?




4 months ago the SP was 40 cents … they are currently raising a fair slice of cash at $1 per share ….. Not rocket science ……. Should be a positive period ahead you would think


----------



## HelloU (25 September 2019)

Miner does not like it when I write bump ...... so I am not gunna post anything

(but I still like LBL and CLV - even if SOL did sell some)


----------



## barney (25 September 2019)

barney said:


> 4 months ago the SP was 40 cents … they are currently raising a fair slice of cash at $1 per share ….. Not rocket science ……. *Should be a positive period ahead you would think*




Thanks for the "bump" @HelloU 

It appears my earlier post was right … however, did I back my assessment with any cash …. No I didn't

Moral of the story …. being right does not help … unless you act!!

Well done @verce ….. I assume you will be sipping Pina coladas on the French Riviera when this reaches true value  Well done.


----------



## verce (17 October 2019)

Looks like momentum is still going strong. Curious if anyone has any updated charts.


----------



## debtfree (17 October 2019)

Hi @verce 
I seen it getting squeezed into the end of the triangle and thought you'd be back to have it in the last 2 Monthly Competitions. It's going along nicely.


----------



## verce (17 October 2019)

Thanks @debtfree 

Apple seem to like it too.


----------



## tech/a (17 October 2019)

looked good from the gap away from consolidation.
The climb up has been classic orderly in technical terms.
Verce stuck to his rhetoric.
Hope he had 1,000,000 of them!


----------



## verce (18 October 2019)

What is going on here?


----------



## barney (18 October 2019)

verce said:


> What is going on here?




Its getting steep that's for sure.  

I see they have continued to grow their customer base and retain a high percentage of customers and advertisers which is a good sign.

They are hoping for positive cash flow Q1 2020 so still a bit of work to be done … 

Maybe its just the Eddie Yoon involvement …. His appointment as advisor was in early September and that's about when this current run higher started

Normally you'd expect a run like this to need a "technical" breather, but it is in blue sky territory so the rules often change.


----------



## JTLP (21 October 2019)

I’m eating massive humble pie! Well done Verce.


----------



## tech/a (21 October 2019)

As a chartist you can only go by the Information the chart and volume give you at the time.
During the discussion the Stock was in a period of flat consolidation and comments
surrounding it at the time were valid.

Verce had a fundamental view and certainly liked the product.

Price did show a turn in sentiment and a break from the Consolidation in September
with a very tidy technical trend which developed from there.


----------



## barney (21 October 2019)

barney said:


> Normally you'd expect a run like this to need a "technical" breather, but it is in blue sky territory so the rules often change.




That is looking like an understatement  … Currently up another 17% to $2.70  …  Not much Volume and Sellers retreating.  I'm a sook so I'd be taking some profit off the table at these levels if I owned it …. but what do I know; I don't own it  Hope it continues for you @verce



tech/a said:


> Price did show a turn in sentiment and a break from the Consolidation in September with a very tidy technical trend which developed from there.




It certainly did and has Tech … The Chart is a real "blue sky" chart now but the lack of Volume in the Support areas makes it look a bit fragile to me … but like I said, what do I know


----------



## verce (21 October 2019)

The free booze party is still on @barney 

Getting closer by the day.


----------



## barney (21 October 2019)

verce said:


> The free booze party is still on @barney
> 
> Getting closer by the day.




Lol  Cheers Verce …… 

Seriously, I hope you have a life changing "investment" in Tiny …. whether I get free bourbon and coke or not

Stocks/the market can be a tough place to navigate … If you get rewarded from your assessment/investment, I will be the first to offer you a couple of high fives.


----------



## Value Hunter (21 October 2019)

Verce thanks to you highlighting the company on this thread I took a very very small speculative position in Tiny Beans a few months ago at just $1.18 per share.. Its since more than doubled. I am holding on for the long-term. Its super risky but it has a lot of potential. it still could be a 10 bagger from here. The concept is good, its showing strong growth and its getting close to break even in terms of profitability.


----------



## verce (22 October 2019)

To reiterate some of my earlier points and predictions from 2018

Metcalfes Law would dictate that if the number of users in a network doubles (which it has after reaching 3 million users since IPO) then the value of said network actually goes up by quadruple. Therefore, TNY should be trading at four times its 2017 valuation - *or a price target of around $4 AUD per share.*

Snapchat (Market Cap = 20 billion USD) launched in 2011 and started out with less traction than TNY. The only thing that worked for Snapchat was word of mouth and organic growth with hardly any marketing spend.

In 2012 Snapchat launched in Google Play Store for Android. This saw its user base grow to over 100,000 users. It took a bit of time to get going but it eventually snowballed into the giant it is today.

Facebook was dominant at the time, but *wise people observed that Snapchat was able to carve out its own niche and create a new social pipeline.* Sound familiar? Tinybeans have won the attention of the millennial parent demographic and this generation is highly prized.

Strong buy.


----------



## tech/a (23 October 2019)

Oh The pain!!
Looks like a buy opportunity Verce!


----------



## verce (23 October 2019)

It does, doesn't it? 20% drop seems excessive.


----------



## barney (31 October 2019)

verce said:


> It does, doesn't it? 20% drop seems excessive.




I'll see your 20% drop and raise you over a 50% rise

My last few weeks have been a bit ordinary over all but I still get a kick out of seeing someone knock in a few goals!!

Well done @verce  …… Let the rise continue


----------



## verce (31 October 2019)

Thanks @barney I appreciate it.

I'm still holding for a plethora of reasons, but a couple that stick out in my mind right now:

- Featured on the iOS App Store as "App of the Day" in the US
- Facebook are notorious for acquiring potential competitors before they reach critical mass, and then incorporating and absorbing them into the gigantic Facebook monopoly. TNY have created their own global social network for millennial parents. Nobody else does this. It's bound to be on someone's radar by now.


----------



## bigdog (12 November 2019)

Share price has gone ballistic in 2019, surging more than 1125% in the past 12 months. The company’s share price opened the year at 26 cents and is currently trading at an all time high of $3.30

Tinybeans is a free social media platform developed in Australia, aimed at parents who want to capture, store and share photos and videos of their children within a secure community.

The Tinybeans platform is designed to boost online safety and security and maintain user privacy. The application creates a contained, invite-only environment where parents can upload photos and videos of their kids and securely share the content with an approved network.


----------



## barney (12 November 2019)

bigdog said:


> Share price has gone ballistic in 2019, surging more than 1125% in the past 12 months. The company’s share price opened the year at 26 cents and is currently trading at an all time high of $3.30




Indeed.  Was almost going to post earlier when it looked like settling around $3.39 for the day ..

Closed at  $3.25 as you point out B/Dog.   Intraday high of $3.52

It still amazes me that the gaps in the SP are often so wide …… However, it's Blue-Sky so the rule book is out the window

Expecting a gap up/down day tomorrow … but that is a just a very short term view.  Still only a $120M+ Market Cap …. Could end up anywhere


----------



## greggles (12 November 2019)

barney said:


> Still only a $120M+ Market Cap …. Could end up anywhere




I don't understand how this company can be valued at $120 million when it booked a $560,000 loss in the last quarter on revenue of just $1.1 million?

I feel like I have been transported back to 1999 in the midst of the dot com boom.


----------



## barney (12 November 2019)

greggles said:


> I don't understand how this company can be valued at $120 million when it booked a $560,000 loss in the last quarter on revenue of just $1.1 million?
> 
> I feel like I have been transported back to 1999 in the midst of the dot com boom.




Lol  ……. You are likely not alone with your "transportation" Greg 

We both know however that in the Spec end of the Stock Market, correctly picking a Stock which has *"future"* value is akin to picking the lottery 

Sometimes that future value ends up being a furphy, but even if so, the road to riches (or lack thereof) can offer up a multitude of trading opportunities, especially for those who believe in the Stock. 

Unfortunately I am too sooky to be THAT ruthless as required, however .…. and therefore look for the big return from something that is "legitimate"  …  I still think Tiny has the potential to be "legitimate"  

Taking some profits along the way (if I were a holder) would still seem appropriate to me however.


----------



## tinhat (15 November 2019)

greggles said:


> I don't understand how this company can be valued at $120 million when it booked a $560,000 loss in the last quarter on revenue of just $1.1 million?
> 
> I feel like I have been transported back to 1999 in the midst of the dot com boom.




I think it is sometimes easier for people to rationalise a high share price for a stock that is not yet making money because they are buying into a story of hope around a perceived bounty of blue-sky earnings to come.

Money is looking for somewhere it can make a buck right now whether or not that place is a rational one. Unfortunately free money for the rich leads to a misallocation of  resources and more seriously the unjustifiable transfer of wealth from the poor to the wealthy.


----------



## verce (27 November 2019)

tech/a said:


> Oh The pain!!
> Looks like a buy opportunity Verce!




Did you pick any up Mr Duck?


----------



## tech/a (27 November 2019)

No —


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## kenny (7 February 2020)

Anyone with an opinion on recent events? Two cofounders are selling down and stepping back from operations as part of the $2 cap raise and the SP has reacted by dropping to $1.70's making the SPP less than enticing.

Part of cap raise is to acquire US competitor Red Tricycle that targets families with older age group children and hopefully not just growing the customer base but also the duration of retention.


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## barney (7 February 2020)

kenny said:


> *Two cofounders are selling down *and stepping back from operations as part of the $2 cap raise




Curious on the source of that information Kenny??  Have you verified its validity?  Not saying its untrue, but I cant find any info that has been announced to the market.


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## rcm617 (7 February 2020)

barney said:


> Curious on the source of that information Kenny??  Have you verified its validity?  Not saying its untrue, but I cant find any info that has been announced to the market.



It was announced on the 31st January in the announcement on the acquisition of Red Tricycle on page 4.


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## peter2 (7 February 2020)

Another capital raise that has seen the share price fall below the SPP price (2.00). Who would participate in the SPP when they can buy in the market at 1.70. 

Tinybeans is buying RedCycle but RedCycle is taking Tinybeans to their US office and the TNY founders are reducing their holdings. 

The chart shows a massive abc correction that will take months to resolve just like the company.


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## kenny (1 March 2020)

Investor conference call transcript is useful reading for anyone interested in TNY. 
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200226/pdf/44fgsq1z5t6y87.pdf

No views on recent SP decline and impact on SPP beyond announcing the extension to closing date to 06/03/2020.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200219/pdf/44f73nfzps8pky.pdf

A few things bouncing in my head I'd appreciate some thoughts from the forum are;

What price did Thorney Investments (TIGA) invest at and on what thesis? Without any apparent escrow, they possibly came in at market price and could exit similarly.
With the capital raise in doubt of achieving the total amount at $2.00, what happens to the Red Tricycle acquisition?
Do the funds that have been raised from the SPP go first to working capital and into the business or does the Founder selldown of up to $4M shares take priority?


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## kid hustlr (1 March 2020)

@verce do you still hold?


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## kenny (2 March 2020)

This answers one of my questions;
*Tinybeans completes Red Tricycle acquisition
ASX RELEASE*

*2 March 2020*

*Tinybeans Group Limited (ASX:TNY) *(“Tinybeans” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that it has completed the acquisition of Red Tricycle Inc., a leading, trusted and highly complementary parenting platform with a business directory market place in the U.S.

Tinybeans Chief Executive Officer Eddie Geller, said:

_“We’re delighted to complete the purchase of Red Tricycle and excited more than ever before given the encouraging early feedback from users and brands. We’re now fully focused on integration to enhance our value proposition and deliver the full synergies for shareholders.”_

As consideration for the acquisition, Tinybeans:


has made a cash payment of USD$6,499,745.12 (with USD$750,000 held in escrow by an escrow agent to satisfy any post‑completion purchase price adjustment and indemnity claims by Tinybeans); and
 

subject to the receipt of duly executed documents from each seller (e.g. voluntary escrow deeds), will issue 861,625 shares, which will be escrowed for 12 months from issue.


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## verce (17 June 2020)




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## So_Cynical (17 June 2020)

The glory days of $3.40 are long gone.


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## verce (17 June 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> The glory days of $3.40 are long gone.




Perhaps you are right. Perhaps not!


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## frugal.rock (25 July 2020)

Noticed a odd cyclical nature to this one recently.
If theory is correct, should pull back to circa 0.88 again, find support and continue modest up cycle  . 

If this pullback doesn't validate, (the cycle theory that is), breakout expected either way.

Results expected early to mid next week, but either way, it's hand should be showing a week from now (next Friday)

My  and not holding and don't care if right or wrong. 
My stab at an alternative TA take, not FA based.


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## frugal.rock (30 July 2020)

7,864,336 fully paid ordinary shares are due to be released from voluntary escrow on 8 August 2020.

The cycle theory is showing signs of confirmation. A buy signal to me.
Exit timing will be considered inline with escrow release. 
90 bar (day) chart, cycle clearer on a 30 bar basis though.


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## frugal.rock (21 September 2020)

I got shook, around 2 weeks ago or so.
Now, fair bloody dinkum.
It's like a naughty animal, take your eyes of it and it runs away...


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## over9k (22 September 2020)

And then eats your brand new shoes.


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## aus_trader (22 September 2020)

I am no technical analysis expert, but I think this one has a bit of potential...

*Reasoning: *Each Up-thrust was accompanied by good volume 🧐







 A flag formation at the end, with a long pole.


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## peter2 (28 October 2020)

*TNY*: popped up in a scan today. Today's high volume bullish BO bar certainly portends further rises. Be careful with the thin MD though. 

@aus_trader  Your observation of the rising volume on the large bullish bars was sound. It took a bit more time before the range was ready to go higher. It's easy to overlook charts like this when nothing happens immediately. That's why I have watch lists and go through them daily.


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## aus_trader (28 October 2020)

peter2 said:


> @aus_trader Your observation of the rising volume on the large bullish bars was sound.



Thanks @peter2 and there was good volume with today's thrust higher as well, so could be a valid breakout.


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## So_Cynical (20 October 2021)

Tinybeans showed up on a 52 week low list i was looking at, revenue still growing and setting new company records, still burning cash too.


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## verce (17 November 2021)

Hopefully coming out of the gates strong tomorrow!


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## Country Lad (17 November 2021)

So_Cynical said:


> Tinybeans showed up on a 52 week low list i was looking at, revenue still growing and setting new company records, still burning cash too.



`Trading halt today won't help. Not just to announce a capital raise but a material capital raise no less.


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## verce (18 November 2021)

Country Lad said:


> `Trading halt today won't help. Not just to announce a capital raise but a material capital raise no less.



Could be a positive though.


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## Country Lad (18 November 2021)

verce said:


> Could be a positive though.



Yep, to be issued at price which is not a large discount and it looks like the market views it as positive.


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## verce (18 November 2021)

Gross margin still above 90%, continued developments on Apple partnership coming.

*Future E-Commerce offerings* (this will be HUGE)


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## frugal.rock (11 August 2022)

Hope you are travelling ok @verce 
Haven't seen you around lately?


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## verce (11 August 2022)

Hi @frugal.rock 

Still a Tinybeans Premium subscriber going on a few years now. It’s an indispensable part of my daily routine. Love the app.

I am curious if Thorney are still a shareholder? Does anyone know?


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## Country Lad (11 August 2022)

verce said:


> Hi @frugal.rock
> 
> Still a Tinybeans Premium subscriber going on a few years now. It’s an indispensable part of my daily routine. Love the app.
> 
> I am curious if Thorney are still a shareholder? Does anyone know?



Thorney Management Services Pty Ltd        1,420,108  = 2.326%


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