# Russia - What are they up to?



## Sean K (31 May 2007)

This one's out of the hat. More to follow here, surely. Who do they team up with? Europe, or China, or India? China I feel. Velly intelesting. 



			
				News said:
			
		

> *Missile test response to US moves: Putin*
> Thursday May 31 23:00 AEST
> 
> Russia's test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile was in response to US steps that have sparked an arms race and undermined world security, Russian President Vladimir Putin says.
> ...


----------



## insider (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

Maybe it's another Soviet Union in the making... ala North Korea


----------



## disarray (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

russia has been playing extremely well lately. i read a good foreign policy think tank article a while ago about russias energy plays and overall eurasian strategy. and on the flipside, american foreign policy has been nothing short of pigheaded, clumsy and often psychotic, making life much easier for the reds. the russians may have been quiet recently but they certainly haven't slunk away, they possess a great deal of power, and they are accumulating more.

the following linked article rips a fair bit out of the think tank article so you'll get the gist of it.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HJ25Ag01.html



> Eurasia is home to most of the world's politically assertive and dynamic states. All the historical pretenders to global power originated in Eurasia. The world's most populous aspirants to regional hegemony, China and India, are in Eurasia, as are all the potential political or economic challengers to American primacy. After the United States, the next six largest economies and military spenders are there, as are all but one of the world's overt nuclear powers, and all but one of the covert ones. Eurasia accounts for 75% of the world's population, 60% of its GNP [gross national product], and 75% of its energy resources. Collectively, Eurasia's potential power overshadows even America's.
> 
> Eurasia is the world's axial supercontinent. A power that dominated Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over two of the world's three most economically productive regions, Western Europe and East Asia. A glance at the map also suggests that a country dominant in Eurasia would almost automatically control the Middle East and Africa. With Eurasia now serving as the decisive geopolitical chessboard, it no longer suffices to fashion one policy for Europe and another for Asia. What happens with the distribution of power on the Eurasian landmass will be of decisive importance to America's global primacy ...




*edit*

also worth watching is the doco The Power of Nightmares (next link is the torrent) which explains the rise of islamic fundamentalism in the middle east and the neo-cons in the US. you'll notice names like cheney, rumsfeld and wolfowitz pop up in both the article and the documentary. poor bush is so dumb he barely ever rates a mention in anything remotely strategic 

http://www.isohunt.com/torrents.php?ihq="the+power+of+nightmares"&ext=&op=and


----------



## billhill (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> This one's out of the hat. More to follow here, surely. Who do they team up with? Europe, or China, or India? China I feel. Velly intelesting.




Great a new arms race  When will we learn. China is the most likely partner to Russia. That said i think China and the other powers are quite happy to let capitalist markets run their course and get rich in the process. Russia will also use capital markets but as seen with their energy reserves the government will have ultimate control. The difference between Russia and China is freedoms in China are increasing while in Russia they are being eroded. I feel China will intergrate with rest of the world eventually where as Russia scares me. They seem much more unpredictable then the Chinese.


----------



## disarray (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*



billhill said:


> Russia scares me




read that asia times article. america scares me more. bonus points for spotting the jewish angle. and i have to hand it to him, putin is very very clever.


----------



## wayneL (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*



disarray said:


> read that asia times article. *america scares me more*. bonus points for spotting the jewish angle.



:iagree:

I've had my say on the matter. However judaism <> zionism.


----------



## disarray (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

i stand corrected. spot the zionist angle


----------



## x2rider (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

Hi from Russia folks .
 Lots on the news about the americans blatant flouting of treaties and so fourth 
 Putin was very direct with his wording on the TV tonight and he is just to smart not to let an opportunity like this go to waste . With elections just around the corner, Putin is trying to lenghten his allowage term at power. You can only be president for so long and then have to step down . Putin is currently trying to pass an extension through the Duma . 
 With the middle east ,China and Russia banded together they would have it all . Resources ,Oil and people . 
 I don't know what language to start learning now . Maybe some sort of 
Vodka-asian . Sounds like a company name to me 
   Cheers all .
 Martin:alcohol:


----------



## Lucky (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*



> > disarray said:
> >
> >
> > > russia has been playing extremely well lately. i read a good foreign policy think tank article a while ago about russias energy plays and overall eurasian strategy. and on the flipside, american foreign policy has been nothing short of pigheaded, clumsy and often psychotic, making life much easier for the reds. the russians may have been quiet recently but they certainly haven't slunk away, they possess a great deal of power, and they are accumulating more.
> ...


----------



## Rafa (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*



disarray said:


> read that asia times article. america scares me more. bonus points for spotting the jewish angle. and i have to hand it to him, putin is very very clever.




great article...

One thing that always puzzeled me, crazy jihadist muslims or not... is who is funding/encouraging middle east terror and where are they getting their weapons from...

my money is with Russia and/or China... via Iran.

The cold war ain't over by a long long shot.


----------



## disarray (1 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*



Rafa said:


> who is funding/encouraging middle east terror




watch "the power of nightmares", it explains the whole neo-con/islamist thing

wiki - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_Nightmares

download the documentary via bit torrent- http://www.isohunt.com/torrents.php?ihq="the+power+of+nightmares"&ext=&op=and



Rafa said:


> and where are they getting their weapons from...




rent "Lord of War" dvd with nicholas cage from video ezy. its an excellent movie


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

You don't have the leader of such a powerful country (still) rattling sabres like this very often in history. What's going on here? Strange behavior really. This is not normal international diplomatic speak. He must feel that world opinion would be against the US, or that they are no longer that powerful. 

From The Australian

*US missile plan may start war: Putin*
Bronwen Maddox, London 
June 05, 2007 

PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin has warned the US that its deployment of a new anti-missile network across Eastern Europe would prompt Russia to point its own missiles at European targets and could trigger a nuclear war.

In an interview with The Times ahead of the G8 summit of the world's leading industrial nations, which starts tomorrow, the Russian leader said: "It is obvious that if part of the strategic nuclear potential of the US is located in Europe and will be threatening us, we will have to respond. 

"This system of missile defence on one side and the absence of this system on the other... increases the possibility of unleashing a nuclear conflict." 

Russia has been alarmed at America's plans to install a network of defences in Eastern Europe to shoot down incoming missiles it fears Iran might launch......


----------



## BradK (5 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

Just finished watching that Power of Nightmares... wow

Turns out the religious right and the islamic fundamentallists are not so different


----------



## chops_a_must (7 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*



kennas said:


> You don't have the leader of such a powerful country (still) rattling sabres like this very often in history. What's going on here? Strange behavior really. This is not normal international diplomatic speak. He must feel that world opinion would be against the US, or that they are no longer that powerful.
> 
> From The Australian
> 
> ...



Democracy was Russia's greatest disaster of the 20th century. I think people in Russia (and the world) would be better off if they were still under communist rule.

Good for gold I guess...


----------



## shevaub (8 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

Putin Makes His Own Proposal on Missile Defense
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/07/world/europe/07cnd-Russia.html?ref=world


----------



## Santob (8 June 2007)

*Re: Russia - Not out of the equation to the America solution*

These latest "wars" by America are simply the American elite funnelling the nations wealth into their own pockets before the collapse. How else can you expain USD$12 billion, in cash from the federal reserve, on pallets, being flown to Baghdad, and then simply disappearing with no account of what happened?

I'll take off my tinfoil hat now.


----------



## Sean K (19 August 2007)

*Russian bomb flights spark 'grave' fears*
Luke Harding and Ewen Macaskill
August 19, 2007

RUSSIA has resumed long-range flights of strategic bombers capable of striking targets deep inside the United States with nuclear weapons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he had restarted the Soviet-era practice of sending bomber aircraft on regular patrols beyond its borders.

Speaking after Russian and Chinese forces completed a day of war games in Russia's Urals, Mr Putin said 14 Russian bombers had taken off simultaneously yesterday on long-range missions.

"We have decided to restore flights by Russian strategic bombers on a permanent basis," he said.

"Russia stopped this practice in 1992. Unfortunately not everybody followed suit. This creates a strategic risk for Russia … we hope our partners show understanding towards the resumption of Russian air patrols."


----------



## BradK (22 August 2007)

From The Times Online - Kremlin orders BBC off the air

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article2277998.ece

Also, 

RAF jets scrambled to intercept Russian bomber 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2302783.ece

I bet Putin is spoiling for a fight so that he can extend his Presidential powers and remain in power (he is due to resign soon). Maybe him and Bush can do each other a favour? 

Brad


----------



## BradK (22 August 2007)

From The Guardian

Putin flexes his military muscles

http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,2153418,00.html


----------



## Sean K (25 August 2007)

Russia and China in war games off Japan.....flying nuclear bombers all over the place...balance of power is shifting. 

I think Russia is sensing an opportunity, with the US obviously weakened and preoccupied with the Middle East and trying to contain China. 

A future, more significant, China/Russia alliance can not be ruled out, spelling the end to US hegemony in the coming decade perhaps. 

Interesting times. 



> *RAF jets check Russian bombers *
> Correspondents in London | August 23, 2007
> 
> BRITAIN has scrambled its new Eurofighter Typhoon jets for the first time to intercept Russian nuclear bombers approaching British airspace, the Ministry of Defence in London said yesterday.
> ...


----------



## billhill (25 August 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Russia and China in war games off Japan.....flying nuclear bombers all over the place...balance of power is shifting.
> 
> I think Russia is sensing an opportunity, with the US obviously weakened and preoccupied with the Middle East and trying to contain China.
> 
> ...





This is why i think the US is trying to butter up india so as to shift the balance back towards them. Assuming 5 major superpowers in the future (6 if Brazil comes to the party) the EU, india and the US alliance (brazil more likely IMO to joint the west then chinaand russia) plus many western countries (australia, canada, Japan) should collectively be able to counter any alliance between russia and china. No doubt the US will much less be able to "do whatever they want" but they will still be within the sphere that controls the world.


----------



## Sean K (5 September 2007)

Russia is now arming the Indonesians. I think they're looking at Sukhoi fighters as well...

Indonesia picking up a few subs is a concern I'd think, although they'll be more focused in watching Chinese and India boats I'd reckon. This is going to shift the balance of power in SE Asia slightly. One to watch.  Shouldn't underestimate what a few subs could do around the archipelago. 

Tanks? Indonesia buying tanks? What the? Anyone been to Indonesia and can suggest where these might be deployed? The only space they could comfortably maneuver is around the Presidential Palace.......aaahhh! Or, perhaps they mean APC type things. 




> *Jakarta and Moscow to seal $1.2bn defence deal*
> Mark Forbes
> September 5, 2007
> 
> ...


----------



## kitehigh (5 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Russia is now arming the Indonesians. I think they're looking at Sukhoi fighters as well...
> 
> Indonesia picking up a few subs is a concern I'd think, although they'll be more focused in watching Chinese and India boats I'd reckon. This is going to shift the balance of power in SE Asia slightly. One to watch.  Shouldn't underestimate what a few subs could do around the archipelago.
> 
> Tanks? Indonesia buying tanks? What the? Anyone been to Indonesia and can suggest where these might be deployed? The only space they could comfortably maneuver is around the Presidential Palace.......aaahhh! Or, perhaps they mean APC type things.




Wow they are talking about buying another 8 kilo class submarines on top of the 2 that they already have.  Our only saving grace is that their maintance and support is notorioulsy sloppy.  And I would back our operators over their's anyday of the week.   Looks like our submarine fleet is going to have a busy time ahead of them.

Yeh I think those tanks will be deployed around the Presidential Palaces to keep dissenters in line.  Oh that was china wasn't it.

On another note it looks like we are getting further in bed with the Americans.

*U.S. gives Australia top military technology in pact*
12:54, Wednesday, September 05, 2007

SYDNEY, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The United States is giving 
Australia more access to top-secret American military technology 
under a new defence cooperation treaty they signed on Wednesday.

President George W. Bush and Australian Prime Minister John  
Howard signed a defence trade cooperation treaty "that will 
strengthen our already robust alliance" a White House statement 
said.

"Good job," Bush said as he shook hands with Howard after the 
signing at Howard's office in Sydney. 
REUTER NEWS SERVICE


----------



## numbercruncher (12 September 2007)

> Russia tests powerful vacuum bomb
> Wednesday Sep 12 07:14 AEST
> Russia says it has tested the world's most powerful vacuum bomb.
> 
> ...




http://optuszoo.news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=295235


Gee if the Russians only put half the effort of what they put into making new uber killer weapons into other projects just imagine what they could acheive!


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 September 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> http://optuszoo.news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=295235
> 
> 
> Gee if the Russians only put half the effort of what they put into making new uber killer weapons into other projects just imagine what they could acheive!




I like how the flippant Russian mad scientists say in another report that their new weapon _"merely evaporates all living things"_. Oh goody. It only _"merely"_ annihilates all life. I feel MUCH better about that emphasis.... 

Hopefully the Jolly Big Bush can develop a New, Improved Vacuum Bumb - something more SERIOUS, like you know, "CRUSHES THE BEEJEEZUS OUTTA Y'ALL SCUMBAGS ...ERRR... LIFEFORMS" .... 

Hmmm...I feel an ARMS race a'comin.... I wonder who Russia might supply these whizz-bangs to??

Chiz,

AJ


----------



## Whiskers (12 September 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Gee if the Russians only put half the effort of what they put into making new uber killer weapons into other projects just imagine what they could acheive!




Can this vacum bomb technology generate electricity and make uranium redundant... that would be something!


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 September 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Can this vacum bomb technology generate electricity and make uranium redundant... that would be something!




Power generation? That question is right up Smurf1976's alley 

AJ


----------



## numbercruncher (13 September 2007)

Here is a video of the new enviromentally friendly Kill you all Vacuum bomb 


http://www.reuters.com/news/video/videoStory?videoId=66288&newsChannel=wtMostRead


----------



## disarray (14 September 2007)

fae's aren't anything new, they have been employed since the 70's and come in all shapes and sizes from RPG charges to this big bastard. nukes are still far more effective and easier to deliver to target however the advantage of these is the lack of radioactive hangover and being able to utilise existing bomber technology. with the US moving to implement a missile screen in europe, russia is moving back to an older delivery system with upgraded ordanace to maintain a credible threat over europe.

these aren't the sort of things you'd send over the ocean because nukes do that whole ICBM thing so much better, but for alpha strikes on close targets which you intend to roll over with tanks shortly this thing is the bees knees.

of course this is the fault of american foreign policy AGAIN. america is doing its level best to utterly clusterfk every region they have a strategic interest in and are well on target to achieving their hidden goal of destabilizing and pissing off the entire planet.


----------



## Whiskers (14 September 2007)

disarray said:


> of course this is the fault of american foreign policy AGAIN. america is doing its level best to utterly clusterfk every region they have a strategic interest in and are well on target to achieving their hidden goal of destabilizing and pissing off the entire planet.




Hidden goal or not... they certainly are.


----------



## Whiskers (2 October 2007)

According to German GW TV on SBS this afternoon, Putin intends to try and keep a hand on power in Russia. His term as president expires in March next year and he can't run again, so he is intending to run for PM in December. 

Aparently, the law is also going to be changed to give the PM more power. What a coincidence eh! But what else would you expect from Putin. 

I think I can see another (Russian) dictatorship coming up here. :goodnight


----------



## Sean K (17 October 2007)

Russia and the 'ans' now signing declarations that they will not allow anyone to launch an attack on Iran from their soil. 

In bed with China, assisting Iran, strategic bombers back circling the world....



> *Iran Wins Neighbors' Pledge Not to Help U.S. Attack (Update2) *
> By Lucian Kim and Ladane Nasseri
> 
> Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Iran, facing U.S. pressure over its nuclear program, secured a pledge from Russia and the other three nations that surround the Caspian Sea not to allow America or its allies to launch an attack on it from their soil.
> ...


----------



## Sean K (9 August 2008)

And, now they go and attack Georgia.

Hang on, you can't do that these days can you?

What the heck are they up to?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> Tanks? Indonesia buying tanks? What the? Anyone been to Indonesia and can suggest where these might be deployed? The only space they could comfortably maneuver is around the Presidential Palace.......aaahhh! Or, perhaps they mean APC type things.




I think Conventional tanks are some what obselete on tadays battle feild, to much threat from Fast air and shoulder fired anti tank systems are so effective now I don't think an enemy tank would last the 5 minutes in a deliberate assult, ( as long as we knew it was there ).

But LAV style Apc's still have a place though,


----------



## CanOz (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> And, now they go and attack Georgia.
> 
> Hang on, you can't do that these days can you?
> 
> What the heck are they up to?




Disappointing, but really what is the US going to say against it? Now that "global cop" thinks its ok to invade countries, i guess Russia can too. I feel bad for the people of that small little area, South Ossetia. 

War's suck.


----------



## robert toms (9 August 2008)

We are told that Georgia attacked South Ossetia and Russia has intervened to support the break-away province.South Ossetia has been been a Russia-supporting province since 1992.
Russia regards this situation as a parallel to the US support of the breakaway
Serbian province of Kosovo...in this case Russia supports South Ossetia.
I think that the Russians believe that any protests that the US makes are not to be taken seriously.


----------



## 2020hindsight (9 August 2008)

robert toms said:


> We are told that Georgia attacked South Ossetia and Russia has intervened to support the break-away province.South Ossetia has been been a Russia-supporting province since 1992.
> Russia regards this situation as a parallel to the US support of the breakaway
> Serbian province of Kosovo...in this case Russia supports South Ossetia.
> I think that the Russians believe that any protests that the US makes are not to be taken seriously.




oil raises its ugly head again apparently 


Probably more like the "support"   that Iraq received.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (9 August 2008)

I saw some georgein troops on the TV this afternoon, they were pretty heavily armed and in high spirits, They semed to carry thm selves as like professial soldiers too, I don't think I would like to engage them in a low tech battle unless I out numbered them 3 to 1.


----------



## overlap (10 August 2008)

Kevvy has discovered he doesn't matter and no-one is lining up for his valued input 

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24154620-661,00.html



> THE Olympic ideal of a world united in harmony for the duration of the Games was in tatters as Russian and Georgian troops waged war.
> 
> With the world's eyes focused on Beijing, up to 1500 people died as US-backed Georgian forces tried to reclaim a Russian-backed breakaway province.
> 
> Stunned Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd sat metres away as US President George W. Bush and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin debated the invasion during Friday's Olympic opening ceremony.


----------



## Sean K (10 August 2008)

Wow, this Georgia thing is more complicated than I thought, and could spill over the borders and have international involvement if not handled well. When I first saw the Georgian president on CNN I just assumed that Russia were the badies, but it's on ethnic lines and Russia seem to be protecting 'Russian like' people within Georgia. With the US a friend of Georgia (for whatever reasons - air bases to conduct attacks on Iraq anyone?) this is nasty. 

Lets hope they all shake hands at the end....

Doubtful.


----------



## CanOz (10 August 2008)

kennas said:


> Wow, this Georgia thing is more complicated than I thought, and could spill over the borders and have international involvement if not handled well. When I first saw the Georgian president on CNN I just assumed that Russia were the badies, but it's on ethnic lines and Russia seem to be protecting 'Russian like' people within Georgia. With the US a friend of Georgia (for whatever reasons - air bases to conduct attacks on Iraq anyone?) this is nasty.
> 
> Lets hope they all shake hands at the end....
> 
> Doubtful.




Each side can say what they want about the people involved, but in reality its about energy again right? 

The US wants that area for a gas pipline to supply Europe from the Middle east instead of Russia, in a nutshell.


----------



## qmanthebarbarian (10 August 2008)

CanOz said:


> Each side can say what they want about the people involved, but in reality its about energy again right?
> 
> The US wants that area for a gas pipline to supply Europe from the Middle east instead of Russia, in a nutshell.




i'm sure those backward outdated religions of the world must be the real reason.

After all, how many wars have been "fought for religion" as opposed to "used religion as a vehicle to fight a war". 

No, I'm sure this war and ALL other wars fought in the past AND IN THE FUTURE stem from those backward, uneducated, opium dependent masses who deprive humans of rigorous scientific knowledge with their outdated values.

If they had of been eradicated long ago, we would never had any wars!!!

Every war ever fought: 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars#Wars_by_date

- fought in the name of religion!!!!!

Damn religion!


----------



## robert toms (10 August 2008)

I suspect that the Georgian leadership conferred with the Americans before moving into South Ossetia.Why should the mouse take on the bear?
My five year old encyclopaedia shows Georgia as having under six million people and armed forces of 10,500.
The TV news clip of Putin and Bush in Peking was a picture painting a thousand words.Putin wagging his finger a Bush and Bush very defensive.
On the Guardian Uk site ,one historian gives a his view of Georgian politics...stay out of it,mafia style and corrupt.
His view was that big powers only take so much goading from the smaller players....he likened it to Argentina taking over the Falklands,and thinking that they would get away with it.


----------



## CanOz (10 August 2008)

qmanthebarbarian said:


> i'm sure those backward outdated religions of the world must be the real reason.
> 
> After all, how many wars have been "fought for religion" as opposed to "used religion as a vehicle to fight a war".
> 
> ...




Interesting though if the theme does switch to wars fought over resources, not religion anymore.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## 2020hindsight (10 August 2008)

CanOz said:


> Each side can say what they want about the people involved, but in reality its about energy again right?
> 
> The US wants that area for a gas pipline to supply Europe from the Middle east instead of Russia, in a nutshell.




Yep,
it's about gas pipelines all right:-



> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/08/10/dl1001.xml
> 
> Russia's ruthless attack on Georgia is a dramatic and depressing reminder of the willingness of the Soviet Union (and, before it, imperial Russia) to pursue its foreign policy across the borders of sovereign nations.
> 
> ...






> *Mr Bush was obviously right to call for an immediate end to Russian bombings, and to emphasise the territorial integrity of Georgia*: it might seem an obvious point to make but, irrespective of its ethnic makeup, South Ossetia is not part of Russia.
> 
> Dragging Moscow to the negotiating table will be a tremendous test of American and European diplomacy, and one with very significant implications for the future.
> 
> ...




sheesh  - If this was a game of poker, I'll be worried about the size of the kitty.


----------



## 2020hindsight (10 August 2008)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/10/2330349.htm?section=justin



> Georgia withdraws troops from South Ossetia
> Posted 20 minutes ago
> Updated 14 minutes ago
> Georgia has withdrawn its forces from breakaway South Ossetia, where they had been fighting Russian troops for control, the Georgian interior ministry said.




The withdrawal is being challenged by Russia - i.e. they say some Georgian forces still there , -  but sounds like a circuit breaker.


----------



## shmi (10 August 2008)

well russia is keen to see this one through :S 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121834170757727521.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

hopefully things calm down while i sleep


----------



## wayneL (11 August 2008)

From The Times


----------



## robert toms (11 August 2008)

Interesting to compare the responses to this conflict with those during the last Israeli bombing of Lebanon...cluster bombs included.
The countries that were mute during the Israeli actions are now opposed to Russia,and now want an immediate cessation of hostilities...and the reverse seemed to be happening back then.
Was the reason for the attacks then that two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped?
On a different but related tack...who started that adage that democracies do not go to war with eachother ?
The more things change the more they stay the same.
.


----------



## numbercruncher (12 August 2008)

> * President Bush tells Russia to end conflict
> 
> * Russian troops push deep inside Georgia
> 
> ...




http://http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSN11408884

Oil ....


----------



## pepperoni (12 August 2008)

Any govt with anywhere near the iraqi might (ie every country) now laughs at US machismo.

Given that Iraq has pushed the US to the limit over years, Russia would relegate it to the second tier of wealthy and powerful nations before year end.

In spite of their marketing, the only thing shocking and awesome about US  vs iraq was how piss weak their attacks were.

Now that so many countries have nukes and huge economies, the US needs to STFU.


----------



## numbercruncher (12 August 2008)

> Now that so many countries have nukes and huge economies, the US needs to STFU.




Yup, a new world order has emerged .....


If Russia wants your ass, noone can save you ....


Such is Life 21st centuary style ...


----------



## Rafa (12 August 2008)

I saw this in one of the letters to the editor in the age....



> WHAT are the undeniable facts of the conflict that started on the day of the Olympic Games opening? Georgia, using the Games as cover, made a dash for cash, barely four hours after its President had publicly declared that he had no intention of using force.
> 
> In an area with UN-sanctioned peacekeepers and no overt conflict in progress, Georgian troops started shelling the peaceful city of Tskhinvali, using artillery and its air force. The people being killed and driven out of their homes are claimed by Georgia but are of a different nationality. Refugees are fleeing towards the Russian border — they know which way safety lies, even if the world hears a different story.
> 
> ...






is this letter factually correct?
interested to know who exactly started this one... 
was gorgia simply playing chicken?
they are supported by the west, so is this part of a bigger strategy to draw russia into something... (not sure what), using gorgia as the bait?
the west has been growing increasingly uneasy about russia... could this be an attempt to win the support of the people in the west for something a lot more nasty?


----------



## white_goodman (12 August 2008)

is it too late to march through Berlin and keep going on to Moscow?


----------



## robert toms (12 August 2008)

That letter broadly fits in with what I know...the attack was made by the Georgians .
If anyone saw a tape of Putin wagging his finger at a defensive Bush it gave the game away.
There seems to be a form of censorship on the Australian media,because I only saw a longer version once.
Some more things that I have gleaned..
Georgian troops have been supplied and trained by the US and Israel for the past four years.
One theory that rings right with me is that Bush wants to make an enemy of Russia to enhance the prospects of his fellow republican McCain....stronger on defence and all that.
Also the Georgian troops ,proxying for the US,wanted to test the capabilities of the Russian troops...the US believed that they were incompotent and run-down.
Why would Georgia wilfully start a war with a much bigger foe?I think that the answer lies with George Bush...as it turns out they are on a hiding to nothing.
I see Gorbachev came out today and said that the US made a big mistake with their strategy....and he the darling of the west.


----------



## Rafa (12 August 2008)

fascinating stuff robert...
the cold war ain't over... thats for sure, but russia have china on their side!

Maybe georgia's could be equivalent to Iraq/Afghanistan... the US were drawn into Iraq/Afghanitan (i have no doubt russia and china has something to do with that).... and have been considerably weakened as a result.

is luring russia into georgia a similar tactic?

thankfully rudd can speak chinese and american


----------



## numbercruncher (12 August 2008)

> Why would Georgia wilfully start a war with a much bigger foe?




Georgia didnt start a War with Russia ! pfft ....


Its like Victoria breaking away from Australia , then we send in the Military to Victoria and China comes woops Australias **** so Victoria can become a seperate country ..... Only difference is Victoria doesnt have a massive pipe running through it supplying most of Europe with Oil !

Dont try paint Russia as a nice guy because that she aint ...... Geopolitics everywhere we look in this world ......

But anyway , the World can no longer stop the Likes of Russia (etc) just doing whatever it wants .....

The World is now so helpless it cant even stop goons like Mugabe !

Interesting times


----------



## BradK (12 August 2008)

Hi all, 

I have been watching this like a hawk and reading whatever I can about it since Friday from news sources all over the world. I think the UK's Independent is the best, followed by the BBC for its coverage of interviews with Saakashvili - quite the buffoon I think, and interesting to watch the blood drain from his face as it slowly dawns on him that he has friends in the US and Europe in name only - they are clearly not going to step up for him now - despite him recently naming the main road from the international airport to the capital 'George W. Bush Boulevard'. 

Well, I still have no idea about where this is going and whose fault it is. I'd like to add some interesting things that we could probably discuss. 

1. What do you all think about the role of Putin and the virtual non appearance of Medvedev in all of this? Do you think that the power sharing can only last so long, and Medvedev will try to assert himself sooner or later? Will be interesting - we all know that Putin is a complete goon.  

2. US Envoy Matthew Bryza made it into Georgia this morning with some very harsh comments to make about the Russians. All diplomacy aside, he absolutely roasted them. THe Irish Times reported it, but no one else, as far as I can see yet, has reported the story. Bit strange that they are silent on this point?? 

Have a read for yourself and consider whether or not you think it is newsworthy or not?? 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2008/0812/1218477342079.html

3. What do you all take to be the main issue? 
a) The maintanence and integrity of an oil pipeline into Europe that avoids Russia? 
b) Russian influence and its flagrant disregard for international opinion? 
c) Russia has been spoiling for a fight for a while - and would probably have the Chinese on their side immediately after the Olympics? 
d) Evidence that this is the END of the American empire? 

Food for thought. 
Brad


----------



## kitehigh (12 August 2008)

I see a lot of people are writing off the American military machine and think that Iraq has weaken them.  I would actually argue the opposite.

Firstly they have battle hardened their defense force over the last 7 years in both Afghanistan and Iraq.  This has allowed them to also develop better tactics and weapons which are now being put to use. 

The American public has also been conditioned into a mindset of war.  Only if the causalities start rising significantly do I see the American public getting restless.  Americans in general are a lot more patriot than other nations.

They have a much greater military presence in the middle east which allows them to respond quickly to regional hot spots in this area if they so desire.  They have built military bases in Iraq out in the desert which they have no intention of ever leaving.  Even when they eventually draw down their combat troops in Iraq they will still have a significant presence in the Middle East.

They lead the world in weapons development and technology application.

They lead the world in military expenditure.

I think in any head to head military confrontation the American war machine would rout the Russians.  But this is unlikely to happen as long as the Russians have a credible nuclear threat.  This is why they are so adamant not to allow the US to position any kind of missile defense system around them, as this seriously under minds their deterrent.

I think Russia is counting on the US not coming to the direct aid of Georgia as this will seriously escalate the situation.


----------



## 2020hindsight (12 August 2008)

kitehigh]1. I think in any head to head military confrontation the American war machine would rout the Russians. 

2. But this is unlikely to happen as long as the Russians have a credible nuclear threat. This is why they are so adamant not to allow the US to position any kind of missile defense system around them said:


> .. A.  Saakashvili - quite the buffoon I think, and interesting to watch the blood drain from his face as it slowly dawns on him that he has friends in the US and Europe in name only - they are clearly not going to step up for him now - despite him recently naming the main road from the international airport to the capital 'George W. Bush Boulevard'.
> ...
> 1. What do you all think about the role of Putin and the virtual non appearance of Medvedev in all of this? ...
> 
> ...



Great post Brad - have to give it some more thought 
 but 

A. Gotta feeling that US (in particular) will be a fair-weather friend, considering their current commitments - Teach em to go into Iraq (idiots) - "When you're up to your armpits in alligators (Iraq and Afghanistan), it's hard to remember that your primary objective was to drain the swamp". - whatever

1. Putin still in control heh

2. Russia may lose international kudos out of this - hope so.

3. Main issues?
a) Gas pipeline gotta be 50% of Russia's motive surely.  And our hypocrisy leaves us without an argument against them 
c) Russia spoiling for a fight would be the other 50% you'd think - although Georgia apparently started it (which makes them look pretty idiotic yes?) 

Just my opinion (after a fraction of the reading you've probably done on it)


----------



## numbercruncher (12 August 2008)

> a) Gas pipeline gotta be 50% of Russia's motive surely. And our hypocrisy leaves us without an argument against them





Atleast .... and Yes !


----------



## numbercruncher (13 August 2008)

Sums things up nicely .....



> "This was a proxy war, not about South Ossetia, but about Moscow drawing a red line for the west," said Alexander Rahr, Russia expert at Germany's Council on Foreign Relations and a biographer of Putin. "They marched into Georgia to challenge the west. And the west was powerless. We're dealing with a new Russia."




http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/12/georgia1


----------



## Tysonboss1 (13 August 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> although Georgia apparently started it (which makes them look pretty idiotic yes?)




Georgia only moved into the rebel area to bring it back under their control,... after all it is leagally a part of there country and the rebels had been attacking the the oil pipeline.

However russia for years has been issuing russian passports to the local population of the rebel area, So then the russians stepped in to protect the russian passport holders with the arguement that they are russian citizens, even though they are infact a break away georgin population within georgias territory.



It would be like


----------



## juw177 (13 August 2008)

What were the US troops doing in Georgia prior to the start of the war? Is it normal to have 2:1 ratio of US troops to Georgian troops?

http://news.yahoo.com/story//ap/20080721/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_us_military



> US troops train Georgians amid tension
> 
> TBILISI, Georgia – President Mikhail Saakashvili praised a joint military training program involving more than 1,000 U.S. Marines and soldiers at a former Soviet base Monday, amid heightened tensions with Moscow.
> 
> ...





And what about the US airlift of Georgian troops from Iraq?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24166276-26040,00.html



> The US military started flying 2000 Georgian troops home from Iraq on Sunday after Georgia recalled them.





And to the World War 3 fanatics, there won't be such a thing. Only a propaganda war.


----------



## juw177 (13 August 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Georgia only moved into the rebel area to bring it back under their control




Does that have to involve killing 1500 civilians and peace keepers? And shelling a city to ruins?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/20088982119734993.html


----------



## sqwark7600 (13 August 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Sums things up nicely .....
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/12/georgia1




For the long version try this:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...amps-its-authority-HFR8G?OpenDocument&src=sph

Putin 1 Bush 0.


----------



## mayk (13 August 2008)

Interestingly, an avid student of history can relate these events to the start of 20th century. Well even the climate was changing as rapidily as of late. As was the great banking collopase of 1909 in US. 

I think there is a cycle of war and peace, and when so many countries in the world are fighting on ethenic, religious and nationalistic agendas, with no clear distinction of good and evil, a clear and present danger of a global conflict is imminent. 

The good news is that NATO will think twice before admitting a new member.


----------



## 2020hindsight (13 August 2008)

sqwark7600 said:


> Putin 1 Bush 0.




Any effect on the market ?  
Any effect on the upcoming US election ?


----------



## rossw (13 August 2008)

suprised that the oil price has ignored this.
the oil pipeline is fairly important...


from deep outside that i was reading the other day..
US trained georgia.
georgia picks a fight with russia
US moves aircraft carriers into the gulf for a move on iran cause ruskis are already tied up in the other battle


----------



## Tysonboss1 (13 August 2008)

juw177 said:


> Does that have to involve killing 1500 civilians and peace keepers? And shelling a city to ruins?
> 
> http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/20088982119734993.html




have they killed 1500 civilians? i don't think so.

When the enemy wish to fight you from the streets of their city, then offcourse the city will suffer damage. 

This situation is Bad all round


----------



## juw177 (13 August 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> have they killed 1500 civilians? i don't think so.
> 
> When the enemy wish to fight you from the streets of their city, then offcourse the city will suffer damage.
> 
> This situation is Bad all round




Um hello? The city was invaded by the Georgian army. It was not their "wish to fight" the Georgian army.


----------



## robert toms (14 August 2008)

Gorbachev said that the surprise attack by the Georgians was preceded by barrages of rockets on an unsuspecting South Ossetian civilian populations.
Interesting story in yesterday's Australian media.
Russian troops say that they have discovered two dark-skinned Georgians amongst the dead Georgian soldiers.
US said that their 130 military advisers were confined to barracks during the hostilities,and that all have been accounted for.
The US said that their military advisers are to prepare Georgian soldiers for Iraq.
Russian authorities said that they would do DNA test on the dark-skinned Georgian soldiers.


----------



## CanOz (14 August 2008)

Maybe the thread should be - America - what are they up to now?

CanOz


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2008)

CanOz said:


> Maybe the thread should be - America - what are they up to now?
> 
> CanOz



 LOL

May be right CanOz!

It wasn't just troops that Georgia provided to the US in our war on Iraq, they were a staging point for coalition airstrikes as well. I am quite surprised that part of the contract for support wasn't 'defend us when Russia attacks'. 

eeeek!

Could WWIII be started on something like this?

With spillover from Central Asia and the Middle East....


----------



## Tysonboss1 (14 August 2008)

juw177 said:


> Um hello? The city was invaded by the Georgian army. It was not their "wish to fight" the Georgian army.




Georgia has to attack and try to kill or capture the rebels if they keep behaving like rat bags and attacking oil pipline, They can't sit on there hands.

The fact that the rebels were hiding out in cities is their problem.


----------



## Speewha (14 August 2008)

kennas said:


> LOL
> 
> 
> Could WWIII be started on something like this?
> ...




Hello

Could be World War 1 started with the assassination of one man. Georgia and Russia have long history of conflict and intrigue. The Orlof brothers who hailed from Georgia helped Catherine the Great to power by murdering her husband thus establishing a despotic line of Germanic rulers of Russia that lasted until the October revolution.    

Regards


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2008)

Speewha said:


> Hello
> 
> Could be World War 1 started with the assassination of one man. Georgia and Russia have long history of conflict and intrigue. The Orlof brothers who hailed from Georgia helped Catherine the Great to power by murdering her husband thus establishing a despotic line of Germanic rulers of Russia that lasted until the October revolution.
> 
> Regards



Yes, I was going to expand on that idea, thank you.

Could the world be on a tipping point, with all of the conflicts brewing before one minor incident tips it over the edge?

It's happening everywhere!

And, with world financial markets deteriorating significantly and the lust for black gold ever prevelant.....crikey!!

Humans may repeat themselves again...

I'm heading to the south island!


----------



## kitehigh (14 August 2008)

Georgia also gave Russia Joseph Stalin.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Stalin

I think Russia was spoiling for the opportunity to show Nato what they were dealing with if they allowed Georgia to become a member.  It also sends a clear message to other nations on Russia's borders that were or are thinking of joining Nato.  Saakashvili handed the russians exactly what they wanted when he ordered the attack on South Ossetia.  
It does make you wonder what is really going on behind the scenes, something which we will probably never know.


----------



## IFocus (14 August 2008)

Saakashvili and who ever is behind him are at best a bunch of dunderheads

Georgia  starts shelling civilian areas and then starts crying foul when the Russians repay the complement.

If there is corruption in Georgia then I am sure the US will have some of the action


----------



## CanOz (14 August 2008)

IFocus said:


> Saakashvili and who ever is behind him are at best a bunch of dunderheads
> 
> Georgia  starts shelling civilian areas and then starts crying foul when the Russians repay the complement.
> 
> If there is corruption in Georgia then I am sure the US will have some of the action




One thing i'm really sure of these days...the US wants nothing to do with peace and everything to do with the idea of sounding like they want to have everything to do with peace. 

They are the new masters of propaganda and mass media manipulation.

CanOZ


----------



## Tysonboss1 (15 August 2008)

IFocus said:


> Georgia  starts shelling civilian areas and then starts crying foul when the Russians repay the complement.




When you are engaging an enemy who is portraying themselves as civillian and is operating in among the general population and is supported by that general population what else are you to do. They didn't carpet bomb the entire city, they engaged a hostile outlawed rebel group, within georgias territory, Russia has no business invading.

Russia has no problem using force to qwell any rebel operating in their territory so why deny geogia that same right,... does any one really expect that georgia should have sat on their hands year in year out doing nothing to stop terrorist groups from conducting operations against them, from within georgian borders.


----------



## sqwark7600 (16 August 2008)

IFocus said:


> Saakashvili and who ever is behind him are at best a bunch of dunderheads
> 
> Georgia  starts shelling civilian areas and then starts crying foul when the Russians repay the complement.
> 
> If there is corruption in Georgia then I am sure the US will have some of the action




So who are the heroic elected leaders (dunderheads) of Ossetia and Abkhazia? The Georgian electorate is behind Saakashvili. Having finally dislocated from Russian hegemany I think both Georgians and Ukrainians will do anything to remain free of a mad ex KGB meglomaniac who thinks he is the second coming of Stalin. And why would Georgian military training and advisory staff be contracted to their proclaimed enemies? I'd always pick the Yanks; they have a much better set of clubs. 

The score is currently 1 to 0 in Putin's favour. Let's see what his reaction is to Condolisa's cavalry charge. Methinks the newfound Russian economy will have something to say. So also will the Russian military heirarchy with their pathetic junkyard of military retaliatory capability in the big league. 

Georgia is a sovereign state and last time I checked you don't attack a sovereign state unless your name is Adolf.

As for corruption it will survive the cockroach just as it survives in Russian politics. Putin is living proof.


----------



## Sean K (16 August 2008)

Crikey, what next?

They invade Poland??



*Russia warns Poland over US missiles *
August 16, 2008 

RUSSIA'S second most senior military officer warned last night that Poland's agreement to accept a US missile defence battery exposed the country to attack.

The comments last night from General Anatoly Nogovitsyn are the strongest threat Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defence elements in former Soviet satellite nations. 

"By hosting these, Poland is making itself a target. This is 100 per cent,'' General Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, told Interfax news agency.


----------



## robert toms (16 August 2008)

There is a bit of naive simplication going on here....Do I understand that  Saakashvile as a leader of a sovereign country made an attack on his own citizens ?
Is he entitled to kill two thousand of his own citizens in a surprise night attack ?
Has he a sovereign right to do this ?
Who said that that the first casualty of war was the truth ?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (16 August 2008)

robert toms said:


> There is a bit of naive simplication going on here....Do I understand that  Saakashvile as a leader of a sovereign country made an attack on his own citizens ?
> Is he entitled to kill two thousand of his own citizens in a surprise night attack ?
> Has he a sovereign right to do this ?
> Who said that that the first casualty of war was the truth ?




Were 2000 killed in georgias assult?

I find it amusing that comments here suggest engaging an enermy by surprise at night is the wrong thing to do, assulting under the cover of darkness is the best thing to do.

Firstly by assulting an unsuspecting enemy gives your own forces an advantage and lowers the risk of losses to your forces.

It also denies the enemy the chance to organise themselves into fighting groups so they can not conduct efective counter attack and will have a much higher chance of surrendering or being picked off one by one.

At night there is less traffic and civilians around so it is easier to identify combatants and engage them.

the rebels probally don't have access to night vision gear so that another advantage to night operations.

I would suggest the worst thing to do would be to let your enemy know you are coming and then engage them during the day, Both sides would have suffered heavier loss then.


----------



## CAB SAV (16 August 2008)

So after many years we have the other school bully in the yard. The first school bully,George, says it's not fair and that you can't come in and threaten, occupy,overthrow and get away with it. The new bully,Vlad, says keep your nose out of it.
Now they stand toe to toe,chest to chest.
Both have been expelled before, Czech republic, Cuba etc.


----------



## sqwark7600 (16 August 2008)

robert toms said:


> There is a bit of naive simplication going on here....Do I understand that  Saakashvile as a leader of a sovereign country made an attack on his own citizens ?
> Is he entitled to kill two thousand of his own citizens in a surprise night attack ?
> Has he a sovereign right to do this ?
> Who said that that the first casualty of war was the truth ?




IMO naivity lies with those who plead the case for two rebel lead breakaway states who have been occupied for some time by Russian military.

It was US Senator Hiram Warren Johnson in 1918.


----------



## robert toms (17 August 2008)

I am naive or are Russia really in Georgia,we only know what we see in the media ,as is said "the nauseating hypocrisy of western politicians and their captive media"

Who said Russia invaded ?
We will wait to see whether the European war crimes tribunal indict Saakashville or not...seems like a clear case of criminal aggression .
I can just hear Bush about Saakashville "he may be a son-of-bitch" but he is our "son-of-a-bitch"
Did any of you people believe that there were weapons of destruction in Iraq...if so you were naive.
The reality is that Saakashville made a big mistake ,and now Russia is diminishing his capacity to  make the same mistake again.
Anyone know anything about the Cuban crisis in the sixties...it was a successful Russian strategy.No one likes threatening missiles on their doorstep.
The trade off for the Russians removing their missiles from Cuba,was that the US had to remove theirs from Turkey.
The US believed that they could reverse this situation with their man in Georgia-put a threat on the Russian doorstep....it misfired (no pun intended)

Don't believe everything in the media people!


----------



## juw177 (17 August 2008)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koWWyrDXQVs

LOL LOL Fox news screws up and doesnt realise that people in S Ossetia support the Russians!


----------



## CanOz (17 August 2008)

The truth is out there, you just have to surf for it. 

I really think the US has bitten off more than it can chew this time. 

Come hell or high water, this government will have us in another war before the  people cast their vote.

CanOz


----------



## IFocus (17 August 2008)

sqwark7600 said:


> So who are the heroic elected leaders (dunderheads) of Ossetia and Abkhazia? The Georgian electorate is behind Saakashvili. Having finally dislocated from Russian hegemany I think both Georgians and Ukrainians will do anything to remain free of a mad ex KGB meglomaniac who thinks he is the second coming of Stalin. And why would Georgian military training and advisory staff be contracted to their proclaimed enemies? I'd always pick the Yanks; they have a much better set of clubs.
> 
> The score is currently 1 to 0 in Putin's favour. Let's see what his reaction is to Condolisa's cavalry charge. Methinks the newfound Russian economy will have something to say. So also will the Russian military heirarchy with their pathetic junkyard of military retaliatory capability in the big league.
> 
> ...




The failure to understand the reality on the ground makes them "Dunderheads" 

The US is struggling to support its operations in Afghanistan how could they possibly support Georgia, the Russians fully understand this.

Then the Dunderheads start killing civilians carrying Russian passports that exist on Russia's door step.

Anyone ever heard of Chechnya ask them what happens when you start shooting at Russians pretty much genocide. 

If you start poking a cashed up bear with a stick...........a short stick at that you are going to lose arms and legs.......if you are lucky.


----------



## IFocus (17 August 2008)

CanOz said:


> The truth is out there, you just have to surf for it.
> 
> I really think the US has bitten off more than it can chew this time.
> 
> ...




Yes you have to wonder, start a war and get Maccain voted in based on experience


----------



## CanOz (17 August 2008)

IFocus said:


> Yes you have to wonder, start a war and get Maccain voted in based on experience




There is a statistic i read one time that basically says the party in power at the time of a war or serious hostilities involving that country has never been voted out of office. 

I reckon their banking on that.

anyway...
Both sides are to blame, but there is no doubt in my mind that Georgia started this knowing what Russia's reaction was going to be like....but overestimating the US reaction and the rest of the world's carefactor for his country.

The guardian got a middle of the road take on it so far.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/17/georgia.russia

CanOz


----------



## juw177 (17 August 2008)

^^
Another statistic is there has never been a war or war prospect that McCain didn't like.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 August 2008)

juw177 said:


> ^^
> Another statistic is there has never been a war or war prospect that McCain didn't like.




A bit of a sad comment mate, better to back it up with proof, I've never known a returned soldier who wasn't ant-war.

The russians, poles, georgians , ukranians and chechkens have been beating the proverbial out of each other for centuries. 

This georgian, russian , ossetian thing is nothing new.

Europeans like war.

Thank god we live in Australia.

gg


----------



## sqwark7600 (17 August 2008)

Great Guardian article CanOz.
However, I doubt whether Russia will absorb Ab and/or Os as they would serve Putin better as antagonistic ADHD rebels bordering a militarily shattered Georgia than integrated Russian ethnic basket cases. If they wished to consolidate with Russia why did they form separate breakaways? 
Further, I think the Euros have demonstrated that they would rather have Winter oil than Russia's angst and that I take it would also go for their support for UN membership for any of Putin's long lost Eastern bloc fold. The last point I see as the US's main concern.
Putin is in the ring for a constitutional change leading to a third term as President backed by all those who along with him can't accept they lost the cold war. 
My take is that he retains the upper hand until the US get's a government with ideas or the Russian confidence in his virtual leadership starts to wane.


----------



## sqwark7600 (21 August 2008)

:bonk: Pardon my glitch. NATO not UN.
Appreciate your tolerance. :newbie:


----------



## skyQuake (21 August 2008)

Elsewhere the rest of Russia is busying making Kalashnikovs, Caviar, Vodka, and working in Siberian snow mines.


----------



## Kauri (21 August 2008)

*Re: Russia - What are they up to?* 

  Cold War..  Part 2...   

  Cheers
..............Kauri


----------



## sqwark7600 (21 August 2008)

Kauri said:


> *Re: Russia - What are they up to?*
> 
> Cold War..  Part 2...
> 
> ...




For Putin this is still Part 1. :frosty:


----------



## Kauri (21 August 2008)

sqwark7600 said:


> For Putin this is still Part 1. :frosty:




  For Putin maybe.. for us others he is putting for a bogey..   
Cheers
..........kauri


----------



## sqwark7600 (21 August 2008)

kennas said:


> Crikey, what next?
> 
> They invade Poland??
> 
> ...




So now Poland's defensive missiles are a Condoleezza done deal. 
Putin 1 Bush 1. 
Next round Russia vs Ukraine. :axt:


----------



## sqwark7600 (21 August 2008)

sqwark7600 said:


> Great Guardian article CanOz.
> However, I doubt whether Russia will absorb Ab and/or Os as they would serve Putin better as antagonistic ADHD rebels bordering a militarily shattered Georgia than integrated Russian ethnic basket cases. If they wished to consolidate with Russia why did they form separate breakaways?




"Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Russia is signaling it may back the independence of the separatist Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a move that would intensify the crisis over its invasion of the former Soviet republic." 

:jump:


----------



## sqwark7600 (22 August 2008)

sqwark7600 said:


> Methinks the newfound Russian economy will have something to say.




FT Today:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/60abb0d4-6fb1-11dd-986f-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

:ak47:      :enforcer:


----------



## Calliope (22 August 2008)

What are the Russains up? In order to answer that question we need to go back to 1938. Looking for a pretext to invade Czechoslovakia, Hitler claimed that ethnic Germans living in the neighbouring district of Czechoslovakia known as Sudetenland Land were being illtreated by the Czechs. After his occupation of this area the rest of the country was defenceless. Sound familiar. The rest is history.
Now it just so happens that all the Republics that were hived off from The USSSR after the demise of communism, including the Baltic States have large Russian speaking minorities who all think they are badly done by. Putin wants to regain these territories and restore Russia to its former power. Those who think former KGB man Putin is a reformed character should heed the words of George Orwell; "dishonesty and cowardice always have to be paid for. Don't imagine that you can make yourself the bootlicking propagandist of the Soviet regime, or any other regime, and then return to mental decency. Once a *****, always a *****".
The asterisks are not mine. The earthy word Orwell used means prostitute.


----------



## robert toms (22 August 2008)

What do you think would happen if the government of Mexico was overthrown and the new left wing government got the Russians and Chinese to train and arm their troops?
Then they proceeded to have military training exercises along the Rio Grande,complete with foreign troops ?
A lighter side...I see where the Russian confiscated four Humvees from the Georgian wharves...left over from the joint Georgian US military exercises...I can just see the Russians hooning around in them ?


----------



## Calliope (27 August 2008)

robert toms said:


> What do you think would happen if the government of Mexico was overthrown and the new left wing government got the Russians and Chinese to train and arm their troops?
> Then they proceeded to have military training exercises along the Rio Grande,complete with foreign troops ?
> A lighter side...I see where the Russian confiscated four Humvees from the Georgian wharves...left over from the joint Georgian US military exercises...I can just see the Russians hooning around in them ?




Are you talking to me?  I have no idea. Perhaps the new left wing government would build a Berlin-type wall.


----------



## robert toms (27 August 2008)

No,Noone in particular...but if past actions are an indicator...the US would first try to overturn the government...but if not successful would invade.
Grenada Panama Guatemala etc.
They had a chance to make a friend of Chavez,but instead tried to overthrow him and made an enemy of him.The US just had to wait ,because sure as hen's eggs ,the wheel will turn on Chavez and he will be voted out.
Russia has always been paranoid about border security...for the US it has been no country too far when their interests are at stake.
The hyprocrisy of the response to Russia's foray into Georgia is quite incredible,but not surprising.


----------



## Calliope (28 August 2008)

Bob.  Your Mexican scenario is interesting. In such a situation I think the Mexicans would vote with their feet in millions with the choice between living in the Democratic People's Republic of Mexico and the USA. So the invasion would be in the other direction.


----------



## robert toms (28 August 2008)

They would not be allowed in so they would have to suck it and see.If they tried to get in the US in large numbers the border vigilantes may have a turkey shoot.
Seriously though ,most are probably living in abject circumstances and their lives would not change much no matter what colour their government was.


----------



## derty (29 August 2008)

Putin may not be far off the mark here, certainly echo's my suspicions and I'm sure it would have been alluded to somewhere in this thread previously.

*Putin accuses Bush of provoking war to help McCain*
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24260330-601,00.html


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2008)

derty said:


> Putin may not be far off the mark here, certainly echo's my suspicions and I'm sure it would have been alluded to somewhere in this thread previously.
> 
> *Putin accuses Bush of provoking war to help McCain*
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24260330-601,00.html



No, tripe.

But I am certain the US was in Georgia helping the current President for his assistance in Iraq.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 August 2008)

Since Russia wants to be a bully, perhaps McCain is the man to stare them in the eye. 

There is a group of countries that would love to band together and change the world as it is. Chavez has been busy at work in recent years with Iran and Russia.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Since Russia wants to be a bully, perhaps McCain is the man to stare them in the eye.
> 
> There is a group of countries that would love to band together and change the world as it is. Chavez has been busy at work in recent years with Iran and Russia.



Good point Snake.

Would Obama do it? I'm not sure...

Could be a deciding factor for Americans..

Interesting point!!


----------



## Kauri (29 August 2008)

might play havoc with the markets??

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## CanOz (30 August 2008)

Putin will wait until the depths of winter before he uses that trump card i reckon.

It seems the US and Georgia can't get on the same page in regards to whether or not US forces were in the conflict zone or not. The US says they had 130 "trainers" there in Georgia, to train forces for deployment in Iraq, including some civilians. Georgia says there were no "commanders or even advisors" in the conflict zone.

A color photo copy of a US citizen's passport that was found in a basement of South Ossetia was shown by a Russian General. 

I really hope they can find the truth there.

CanOz


----------



## robert toms (30 August 2008)

What is fairly evident is that Saakashville either acted with the knowledge of the US ,else he is a complete halfwit...not capable of timing his visits to the toilet without mishap.
He spent $900.000 on a Washington lobbyist...no doubt trying to get support for joining NATO and or/EU.
One of the Russians' first targets were the missiles and radar installations in Georgia,most near the airport.
In this case Putin stared down the US by dealing with their boy ,Saakashville..for the Russians it has been a process of gaining self-respect after nearly twenty years of humiliation .
I think it is good to have a little of the balance of power redressed here,instead of the US acting with impunity .
Incidentally in the propaganda wars,the ABC ran a story last week from a US human rights group claiming that the Russians used cluster bombs in Georgia...I only heard that story once...on the same programme it was claimed that the Chinese shot 140 Tibetans.(AM programme)
Both of these stories never surfaced again....
Some media we have here in Australia...donkey is as donkey does !


----------



## Sean K (2 September 2008)

Some interesting points there robert, but is this going to create closer balance of power, or create more instability?

With China and Russia thinking they do what they like, a nasty standoff at some time could lead to a nasty little WWIII. A real WWIII. 

Not saying that Georgia is the catalyst, but things seem to be developing .....


The rhetoric continues:

*Russia alleges aid for Georgia included weapons*
Today on CNN

MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Russia on Monday accused "foreign navy ships" of delivering weapons to Georgia as the European Union met to discuss possible sanctions against Moscow.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has issued another warning to the West over Georgia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said the West would be making a mistake of "historic scope" if it continued to support Georgia.

The comments came on the same day that the EU was meeting in Brussels, Belgium, to discuss how to respond to Moscow's recent decision to recognize the breakaway Georgia regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.

Russia has also not fully withdrawn its troops from Georgia after last month's clashes between the two sides. What do you think about the crisis?

Lavrov called for an arms embargo on Georgia until its President Mikhail Saakashvili was out of power. 

"If the United States and its allies ultimately opt for the Saakashvili regime, which has not taken any lessons from the recent events regarding South Ossetia ... *they will make a mistake of an historic scope*," the news agency Interfax quoted Lavrov as saying.


----------



## kgee (2 September 2008)

So easy to get cynical about the U.S in an election year
Maybe we need a thread called
USA - What are they up to?

P.s excellant blog kennas


----------



## CoffeeKing (11 September 2008)

getting testy again...


*Russia threatens to target missiles at US sites*
September 10, 2008 - 9:06PM
Source: ABC 
Russia has threatened to target planned US missile shield sites in Europe as tensions mounted over Georgia, with the shooting of a policeman and discord over the remit of EU observers.

General Nikolai Solovtsov, head of strategic missile forces, said if the United States set up installations in central Europe the Kremlin would ensure that Russia's vast nuclear arsenal remained effective.

He criticised a lack of transparency in Washington's plans and warned that its missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic and "other such objects" could become "designated targets" for inter-continental ballistic missiles.

"We should be sure that the current and future strategic missile forces... are guaranteed to fulfil the task of strategic deterrence," he said.

Washington insists its shield - endorsed by all 26 NATO member states earlier this year - is to fend off potential missile attacks by what it calls "rogue states", presumably such as Iran.

Russia has long complained that the system is a security threat designed to undermine its nuclear deterrent. It has threatened retaliation against the Poles and Czechs, warning they could become a target for Russian attack.

The issue has been brought into sharper focus against the backdrop of events in Georgia, where the US has accused Russia of seeking to redraw the map by brutally violating another country's territorial integrity.

Russia poured tanks and thousands of troops into its southern neighbour last month as it repelled a Georgian attempt to regain control of the breakaway province of South Ossetia from Moscow-backed separatists.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev committed on Monday (local time) to pull all Russian troops back from Georgia - apart from the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - within a month.

Mr Medvedev also pledged to allow 200 EU observers to join other international staff in monitoring the withdrawal and ensuring the truce.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ruled out the possibility that European Union observers would be allowed into South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

But in Brussels EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said the observer mission "will be deployed with the spirit that it can deploy everywhere", including the two rebel regions.

Shooting in Georgia

Discord over Monday's EU-brokered peace agreement coincided with news of the first major shooting incident in Georgia since the original August 12 ceasefire.

Georgia's interior ministry said a Georgian police post near the rebel region of South Ossetia had come under fire from a Russian checkpoint and that a policeman had died after being wounded in the head and throat.

Russia has tightened control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia since the ceasefire, recognising them as independent states, establishing diplomatic relations and vowing to keep 7,600 troops there long-term.

The opening of ties on Tuesday drew a furious response in the Georgian capital Tbilisi where Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria described it as "yet another step in the annexation of Georgia's sovereign territories."

It came the day after the EU delegation led by French President Nicolas Sarkozy travelled to Moscow then Tbilisi to shore up the fragile ceasefire that ended last month's five-day war.

Russia argues that it repelled Georgian troops to protect thousands of people to whom it had granted Russian citizenship since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

Hundreds of people on both sides are estimated to have been killed in the conflict. Tens of thousands fled their homes.

- AFP  http://www.bigpond.com/news/breaking/content/20080910/2361298.asp


----------



## robert toms (11 September 2008)

I have been reading a few of the essays on monbiot.com lately...all well referenced.
He argues persuavisely that this missile defence system is a bit of a charade...only ever tested against one missile where the coordinates are known...not effective against cruise missiles...white coloured missiles are hard to identify...and it may cost a few million to create decoy missiles,but billions to create defences against new decoys that spring up.
All very interesting.
Would the Bush administration have us on?


----------



## moXJO (11 October 2008)

> "For the first time in the history of the Russian Navy the target of the missile was in an equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean rather than the Kura testing ground on the Kamchatka Peninsula," he said
> 
> Russia's strategic bombers have restarted regular patrols over the Atlantic Ocean irking NATO and a group of the Northern Fleet ships is on its way to the Caribbean to take part in joint exercises with US foe Venezuela




Wonder what they are up to. Hope it’s just a bit of posturing


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

Anyone's eyebrows raise when they heard Russia was bailing out Iceland (or giving them some help on the way down anyway).

Iceland is still in NATO, established to deter Russia and defeat them as required. 

And what sort of resources does Iceland claim in the Arctic Circle? Hmmmm, I heard a while ago they could be sitting on some quite significant natural resources up there.

Next thing you know, Iceland's national sport is Judo.


----------



## numbercruncher (15 October 2008)

I read the otherday that Russia set a new distnce record for a ICBM .....


new arms race nears huh ?


----------



## moXJO (15 October 2008)

Russia gave back land to China the other day as well that they had previously stolen.


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

Hmmmm, If Russia and China have a reason to team up .... eeek.


----------



## robert toms (15 October 2008)

When Russia has even a fraction of the external military bases that the US has ...we may be able to take another look.
I see where they are going to reduce their military personnel to one million...is that about a third of the US?


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

robert toms said:


> When Russia has even a fraction of the external military bases that the US has ...we may be able to take another look.
> I see where they are going to reduce their military personnel to one million...is that about a third of the US?



No, the US doesn't have the largest defence force in the world; China does, followed by India and then Russia. Please research that, as I'm going off memory. I think the US used to be second but have recently downsized.

US has lots of bases offshore because those countres have needed them for security. You're taking a totally anti-US perspective here Robert and don't seem to be seeing the background to the current US deployment worldwide. They saved Europe and Asia's aarse in WWII, and therefore had every right to place a base here and there to maintain security. Germany might be still divided if not for the US and UK, the French would be eating Sauerkraut, Centrsal Asia would be at peace (lol), and those E German swimmers would be crucifying us now!!

I think you've watched too many Michael Moore movies actually.


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (15 October 2008)

russia's conventional forces pail in comparison to the US in their number and  their technology. I think that there is more behind the missile shield than media lets on, i mean why would they advetise the fact that this system could potentially intercept complex missiles with decoys if it could. Do you really think they would pour billions into missile defence if it wasn't effective anyway by basing them close to russia they are trying to neutralise them just after launch before they can perform manouvours and release decoys. We also have to remember that first strike gives a big advantage t the side employing it i have no doubts the us could take out maybe 90% of their nuke capability in a first strike and leave the less sofisticated or fewer missiles to take out with defence system.

Besides that the russian economy is still very fragile and can't maintain a military anything like the US. They rely on oil money, oil just hit $80 and if it hits &60 we could see another russian economic disaster.

With all the crap going on now in the world eonomy the US still has the most evolved, resilient and broad economy in the world and even though china may be the worlds manufacturer the US stll exports huge amounts of goods. The yuan is rapidly increasing in value too just as chinese demand will increase and inflation. Expect the tides to start turning and manufacturing jobs start moving out of china albiet not huge amounts. US exports and manufacturing will have to increase to get them out ofthis mess.

US hegemony going no where, decoupled my butt:


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (15 October 2008)

kennas said:


> No, the US doesn't have the largest defence force in the world; China does, followed by India and then Russia. Please research that, as I'm going off memory.
> 
> US has lots of bases offshore because those countres have needed them for security. You're taking a totally anti-US perspective here Robert and don't seem to be seeing the background to the current US deployment worldwide. They saved Europe and Asia's aarse in WWII, and therefore had every right to place a base here and there to maintain security. Germany might be still divided if not for the US and UK, the French would be eating Sauerkraut, Centrsal Asia would be at peace (lol), and those E German swimmers would be crucifying us now!!
> 
> I think you've watched too many Michael Moore movies actually.




your tallking about man power there not actual power. look in terms of current expenditure and then we also havve to take into account that the US has been spending this much forthe last 30 -40 years china just started ramping up spending. Under Ike defence spending was 10% of GDP under ragan it was 6% now its about 4%.

The US could wipe the floor with china, there is no other country in the world that can project its power like the US. Sure the chinese have 10 Mill solidiers on mainland china and they are all somewhat trained with mediocre weaponry none of the advanced intergration between all the military aspects. You can throw hundreds of thousands of people at an enemy but it wont win a war, WW1 taught us that. You need large , well equiped fully intergrated forces.


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (15 October 2008)

kennas said:


> No, the US doesn't have the largest defence force in the world; China does, followed by India and then Russia. Please research that, as I'm going off memory. I think the US used to be second but have recently downsized.
> 
> US has lots of bases offshore because those countres have needed them for security. You're taking a totally anti-US perspective here Robert and don't seem to be seeing the background to the current US deployment worldwide. They saved Europe and Asia's aarse in WWII, and therefore had every right to place a base here and there to maintain security. Germany might be still divided if not for the US and UK, the French would be eating Sauerkraut, Centrsal Asia would be at peace (lol), and those E German swimmers would be crucifying us now!!
> 
> I think you've watched too many Michael Moore movies actually.





One other thing that is highly contencoius claims, The US was neutral in the first years of WW2 then then walzted in in the end and smashed the already running german forces the USSR did the hard yards in WW2. The US waited for the perfect timing and simply walked in and picked up the pieces. ure they helped in many situations but they always got rewards for doing so. German and japan are basically US childen along with south korea and maybe oon to be iraq? BAse enough forces in a country for long enough it becomes a home away from home. Also look before the world wars america has a history of fighting for power and resources they fought the spanish, english, french and the mexicans they are always out for themselves first


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

KIWIKARLOS said:


> your tallking about man power there not actual power. look in terms of current expenditure and then we also havve to take into account that the US has been spending this much forthe last 30 -40 years china just started ramping up spending. Under Ike defence spending was 10% of GDP under ragan it was 6% now its about 4%.
> 
> The US could wipe the floor with china, there is no other country in the world that can project its power like the US. Sure the chinese have 10 Mill solidiers on mainland china and they are all somewhat trained with mediocre weaponry none of the advanced intergration between all the military aspects. You can throw hundreds of thousands of people at an enemy but it wont win a war, WW1 taught us that. You need large , well equiped fully intergrated forces.



Yes, I agree Kiwi. Australia punches above it's weight because it has the technology also compared to troops on the ground. 

The US is the most powerful, although not largest, military forces of all time. Maybe the Romans, Vandals, Persians, Ottomans, Khans had more absolute power during their reign....Probably. And that wasn't long ago.

Who will be next? China obviously. 

It's just a cycle of the human Earth. Enjoy and sustain our time while it lasts I say!


----------



## noident (15 October 2008)

kennas said:


> They saved Europe and Asia's aarse in WWII




May I ask what this assertion is based on?
1939 - WWII starts
1941 - USSR attacked by Germany
1942/43 - Stalingrad battle, vastly seen as a turning point in the war in Europe
June 1944 - Most of the USSR's territory liberated from the Germans, Soviet troops advance quickly, it became obvious that Germany was losing the war fast and Europe may be occupied by the Soviets (and communist regimes established all over).
June 1944 - the allies invade Northern France. The war's outcome had been largely decided prior to that, they just wanted their piece of the pie as well as to prevent the USSR from occupying all of Europe.

Why did the yanks wait till mid-1944 to join the war against Germany?
In my opinion, they adopted a wait and see who wins approach and jumped on board when things began to really look up.


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

noident said:


> May I ask what this assertion is based on?
> 
> ...
> 
> In my opinion, they adopted a wait and see who wins approach and jumped on board when things began to really look up.




Yes, many are critical of their failure to enter the war earlier. 

Important points:

Japan invaded China before WWII started.
Russia supported China.
Germany annexes Austria.
UK and Franch announce support for Poland independance.
Germany takes Poland.
US Navy starts protecting the oceans for British convoys.

Ahhh, crap, I forget the rest, but you should google it to see how the war eventuated and was finalised. The US didn't get their hands too diry early on, but perhaps lucky ythey didn't. They saved 'our' way of life, at the time.

Wish this was live, would be a more interesting conversation.

kennas


----------



## noident (15 October 2008)

kennas said:


> They saved 'our' way of life, at the time.
> kennas




Ah OK, I see your point now. I took your initial comment to mean that the yanks actually won the war.
But I agree, if they didn't jump in in 1944 Europe would be very different now. The Germans would still have been defeated though.


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

noident said:


> The Germans would still have been defeated though.



Would they?



I need to check who had the ingredients for the bomb at this time...

The world was at a tipping point.

We were on the lucky edge, I think..

k


----------



## billhill (15 October 2008)

> Russian rights lawyer claims mercury poisoning
> 
> 
> French police have opened an inquiry into claims that prominent Russian human rights lawyer Karinna Moskalenko may have been poisoned.




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2391590.htm

More attempts to silence dissidents perhaps.


----------



## chops_a_must (15 October 2008)

kennas said:


> Would they?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Despite all the romantic notions, the 'only' front that mattered was the eastern front. Absolutely no doubt about it.


----------



## kitehigh (15 October 2008)

WW2 is a fantastic topic to discuss if you are interested in history.  Yes I agree Kennas its a topic much better discussed in person.

Lets not get to carried away here with the notion that Russia would have defeated the Germans by themselves.  For a start the Allies were pouring military and civilian aid into Russia to prop them up.  The majority of this coming from the US.  The Russians also had the peace of mind once they had assurances from Japan that they wouldn't invade, of fighting on only the one front.  The rest of the allies were fighting a bitter jungle war in the pacific, a desert war in the middle east and a insurgency in occupied Europe.  
It was the fighting on too many fronts which was the downfall of the Nazies.  

It has been written about widely that the Allies deliberately delayed their invasion of Europe in order to insure the Russians would be worn down to some extent so that they wouldn't be able to romp all over Europe.  Its probably a fair argument and I can see that it makes sense from the Allies point of view, after all Winston Churchill distrusted Stalin, and with good reason as it turned out.


----------



## robert toms (15 October 2008)

No Kennas I am trying to get a bit of balance and perspective here...I was brought up with the Yellow peril and Russians are after world rule etc.
Do you think that their (US) massive base at Guam is to protect the local inhabitants...few that they are... or for other puposes?
The truth is out there...somewhere
Not it seems on asf.


----------



## robert toms (15 October 2008)

OH,not to forget Okinawa...those Japanese on that island need protecting from  old age ...and those Germans need protecting etc etc etc


----------



## Sean K (16 October 2008)

robert toms said:


> No Kennas I am trying to get a bit of balance and perspective here...I was brought up with the Yellow peril and Russians are after world rule etc.
> Do you think that their (US) massive base at Guam is to protect the local inhabitants...few that they are... or for other puposes?
> The truth is out there...somewhere
> Not it seems on asf.



You're not providing balance robert?

I thought you were.

The yellow peril was real and how many countries _did_ Russia take over? Have you forgotton the USSR? We were lucky Indonesia was Islamic and took up the Pancasila doctrine, or they might have been Communist also and allowed Russian bases there. SE Asia would have looked very different.

The US still has bases in the Pacific which has created much needed security for many countries including Australia. Lets not believe China would be contained if the US was not sitting there with a bigger stick. South Korea and Taiwan would certainly be under oppressive control after who know how many lives would have been lost.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 October 2008)

I thought the locals were protesting the troops leaving in Guam? 

In Japan it is a different story, they aren't welcome. But the Japanese constitution disallows them building an adequate force that could repel a Chinese attack. So it is complicated...


----------



## Sean K (16 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I thought the locals were protesting the troops leaving in Guam?
> ..



Um, I thought Guam was actually part of the US...



Didn't they take it off the Spanish in the 1800s?


----------



## chops_a_must (16 October 2008)

kennas said:


> Um, I thought Guam was actually part of the US...
> 
> 
> 
> Didn't they take it off the Spanish in the 1800s?




Yeah. But still... they aren't 'real' Americans there, and there are a whole host of cultural complexities.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Yeah. But still... they aren't 'real' Americans there, and there are a whole host of cultural complexities.




What's a real American?


----------



## chops_a_must (16 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> What's a real American?




You know, one that gets a proper vote. And isn't living an absurd distance from the country that they belong to.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> You know, one that gets a proper vote. And isn't living an absurd distance from the country that they belong to.



Oh I see.


----------



## Sean K (16 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> You know, one that gets a proper vote. And isn't living an absurd distance from the country that they belong to.



I think they do get a vote. They have a Governor and everything. Since half their economy is based on the military bases been there they will probably vote for whoever wants to keep them. What a great posting that would be...


----------



## chops_a_must (16 October 2008)

kennas said:


> I think they do get a vote. They have a Governor and everything. Since half their economy is based on the military bases been there they will probably vote for whoever wants to keep them. What a great posting that would be...




They do, but it means basically nothing. Hence they've been pushing for some kind of autonomy.


----------



## robert toms (16 October 2008)

Kennas...You seem to be an expert on Russian/US intentions Kennas...would you tell me how many offshore bases the US has as opposed to Russia...also how many aircraft carriers the US has as opposed to Russia.
You see these things are used to project your power and influence well beyond your shores?
You seem to have come up with theory,advanced that to a conclusion and then looked for evidence to confirm  your case.


----------



## Sean K (16 October 2008)

robert toms said:


> Kennas...You seem to be an expert on Russian/US intentions Kennas...would you tell me how many offshore bases the US has as opposed to Russia...also how many aircraft carriers the US has as opposed to Russia.
> You see these things are used to project your power and influence well beyond your shores?
> You seem to have come up with theory,advanced that to a conclusion and then looked for evidence to confirm  your case.



What's that theory robert?

By the way, Russia doesn't have many bases offshore (except for their recent attack on sovereign nation Georgia) because the USSR failed.


----------



## robert toms (17 October 2008)

Your theory is that US is under threat ,and no one else acts in good faith.
etc,
Now why wouldn't you answer the question?
My guess is that is contrary to your contrived scenarios.
An old tactic is the one that Superfly would use on this forum...if you cannot win an argument stuff it up!
Can you answer the  original question?External bases and aircraft carrier difference ?

Kennas can you also answer this question ....Do you also post as Superfly ?


----------



## Sean K (17 October 2008)

robert toms said:


> Your theory is that US is under threat ,and no one else acts in good faith.
> etc,
> Now why wouldn't you answer the question?
> My guess is that is contrary to your contrived scenarios.
> ...



WTF?



Isn't this thread about Russia?

Maybe you thought Guam was a USSR entity??

Maybe you just like to bash the US and needed to change the direction of this thread for your own purposes.

Whatever they may be.


----------



## metric (17 October 2008)

russia behaves better on the world stage than the beligerant yanks. the yanks have slaughtered over a million innocent men, women and children in the last few years, and are quickly, if not already, fast losing their mantle as the good guys.

the us/israel backed state of georgia, invaded south ossetia. the russians backed the ossetians and kicked the georgians ass all the way to central georgia. capturing and killing us mercinaries and israli observers in the process.....

the corporatocracy run western media screamed foul....in a disgraceful, blatant showing of lies and propaganda...

so, whats russia doing....? perhaps just sticking up for the little guy...!!


.


----------



## Sean K (17 October 2008)

metric said:


> so, whats russia doing....? perhaps just sticking up for the little guy...!!
> .



Yep, out there saving the world...


----------



## metric (17 October 2008)

the yanks are doing an excellent job of ruining it.....with bank, market, and commodity manipulation......war and slaughter of innocents, withholding food and medicines form the poor, sick and starving........yeah...theyre the good guys...


.



.


----------



## Sean K (17 October 2008)

metric said:


> the yanks are doing an excellent job of ruining it......



How has this thread turned into a bash america effort?

Yes, the US is crap!

The Chinese and Russians are just as crap.

And, we are just as crap!

My hope that this would be a decent analysis of Russia's development and aims have been diverted.


----------



## Buddy (17 October 2008)

kennas said:


> How has this thread turned into a bash america effort?
> 
> Yes, the US is crap!
> 
> ...




Aarh, but never let a good argument get in the way of politics, eh?


----------



## Sean K (17 October 2008)

Buddy said:


> Aarh, but never let a good argument get in the way of politics, eh?



Yes, when speaking of one you naturally bring in the other.

Good discussion though.

I don't usually get to discuss world politics from a hotel in Cuzco....

Thanks robert!


----------



## IFocus (17 October 2008)

metric said:


> russia behaves better on the world stage than the beligerant yanks. the yanks have slaughtered over a million innocent men, women and children in the last few years, and are quickly, if not already, fast losing their mantle as the good guys.
> 
> the us/israel backed state of georgia, invaded south ossetia. the russians backed the ossetians and kicked the georgians ass all the way to central georgia. capturing and killing us mercinaries and israli observers in the process.....
> 
> ...




Metric read up on Chechnya


----------



## IFocus (17 October 2008)

robert toms said:


> Your theory is that US is under threat ,and no one else acts in good faith.
> etc,
> Now why wouldn't you answer the question?
> My guess is that is contrary to your contrived scenarios.
> ...




Robert small point in the US you can stand up and raise criticism of the US president and the administration when they suck

In Russia there are hardly any media that would dare carry this.

You are right the US projects it power through its military 

You miss the point that change can be created in the US through the US media in Russia this is simply impossible.


----------



## Sean K (18 October 2008)

robert toms said:


> Your theory is that US is under threat ,and no one else acts in good faith.
> etc,
> Now why wouldn't you answer the question?
> My guess is that is contrary to your contrived scenarios.
> ...



Oh, and robert, I meant to ask...are you accusing me of having another nic on this site, or any other. Just who is Superfly anyway?

Not very cool actually. 

Interesting to see what measures people resort to when trying to argue a case. 



I am slightly amused.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 October 2008)

kennas said:


> Oh, and robert, I meant to ask...are you accusing me of having another nic on this site, or any other. Just who is Superfly anyway?
> 
> Not very cool actually.
> 
> ...




Iirc, Superfly had something majorly against Indians...


----------



## metric (18 October 2008)

a slaughter a day ......what would you be willing to do on the battlefield if these innocents were your family......?

October 16, 2008

Nato airstrike blamed for deaths of 18 civilians in Afghanistan

Tom Coghlan in Kabul 


A Nato airstrike in Helmand this afternoon may have killed as many as 18 women and children, according to local officials in the province. 

Angry local people brought the bodies of at least six women and children, some of them badly disfigured, to the provincial capital Lashkargar and placed the bodies outside the house of the provincial governor, according to witnesses who spoke to The Times in Lashkargar


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article4957407.ece


----------



## Sean K (18 October 2008)

metric said:


> a slaughter a day ......what would you be willing to do on the battlefield if these innocents were your family......?



Perhaps we need another thread discussing the wests intervention and criminal activities instead of clogging up the Russia thread?



But, since it's been raised, Afghanistan is WAR!! 

People die in war. Civilians die in war. But in the modern day this is mitigated by the laws of armed conflict as part of the Geneva Conventions. As late as WWII millions of civilians died because of random attacks to destroy opposing countries will to fight. The ultimate examples being the London bombing by the Nazis and the US attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 

Relevant to this thread, the USSR slaughtered hundreds of thousands of civilians in Afghanistan during their attempted invasion and occupation. This was just a few years ago. 

The world sat back and basically watched (except for a few Stingers smuggled in through Pakistan) because Afghanistan has no oil, and they didn't fly a couple of planes into some big buildings in the US.


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

kennas said:


> But, since it's been raised, Afghanistan is WAR!! People die in war. Civilians die in war ...




Kennas, I respect your opinion on this stuff.  You've been much closer to the coalface that I have.  

but (again on Afghanistan) - brilliant interview on Enough Rope,  Denton with Imran Khan - He says this type of war will only be won by winning the hearts and minds - (and also says there is no doubt he will one day be PM of Pakistan! )

and that has been backed up by the recently-retiring UK Commander - who predicts we will lose (unless we change to that emphasis).

Back to topic ... playing Devil's Advocate here ok? - but here's another take  on  it :-

Russia owns the hearts and minds of the South Ossettians - Georgia attacked them - Russia defended them - now well advanced withdrawal from the country as I understand it (which is a marked difference with the way the west carries on with its invasions)  

 PS Ossettians? Spellcheck gives me the choice of Assertions or Alsatians


----------



## chops_a_must (18 October 2008)

kennas said:


> People die in war. Civilians die in war. But in the modern day this is mitigated by the laws of armed conflict as part of the Geneva Conventions. As late as WWII millions of civilians died because of random attacks to destroy opposing countries will to fight. The ultimate examples being the London bombing by the Nazis and the US attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.



Would have thought the Dresden bombing, or the Tokyo Fire Raid were better examples to be honest Kennas...


----------



## Sean K (18 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> but (again on Afghanistan) - brilliant interview on Enough Rope,  Denton with Imran Khan - He says this type of war will only be won by winning the hearts and minds - (and also says there is no doubt he will one day be PM of Pakistan! )



War can be won in a few ways, depending on the goal. A couple of them may be; total distruction, or liberation...

Afghanistan fits the later.

So, hearts and minds is the ultimate goal, imo, which ISAF is trying to achieve. Australia are playing a large part in that with the deployment of the engineers and they recently completed a hospital, but there's no one to staff it. Perhaps Aussies will staff it in the future, either NGO or Army. I think it's been set up with the intention of an Aussie medical team manning it till they can get their own staff.


IMO, this is a two pronged war. Defeat the Taliban in total, and win the hearts and minds of the moderates. This is the ISAF goal from what I understand.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2008)

Russia, what are they up to.

I'll tell you.

Waiting for winter and stocking up on vodka and cabbage.

gg


----------



## metric (18 October 2008)

and the russian psyche isnt diluted by migrants.....like has been imposed on western countries...

the french are now a minority in their own country...and soon the germans will be.. and the brits..

...


----------



## awg (18 October 2008)

kennas said:


> War can be won in a few ways, depending on the goal. A couple of them may be; total distruction, or liberation...
> 
> Afghanistan fits the later.
> 
> ...






The war in Afganistan can never be won.

They have been fighting and dying for thousands of years

The Russians lost.

The Americans will lose

The country has a system that is not amenable to central government.

They will never stop fighting till the infidels are driven out


----------



## IFocus (18 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Would have thought the Dresden bombing, or the Tokyo Fire Raid were better examples to be honest Kennas...




It wasn't an external war but Uncle Joe did over more Russian's than the above put together.


----------



## Sean K (18 October 2008)

awg said:


> The war in Afganistan can never be won.
> 
> They have been fighting and dying for thousands of years
> 
> ...




I agree.

Got a solution?


----------



## noident (18 October 2008)

IFocus said:


> small point in the US you can stand up and raise criticism of the US president and the administration when they suck
> In Russia there are hardly any media that would dare carry this.




The US (and her allies) have adopted a very simple yet effective propagandist tactic of declaring those governments which are not very friendly to the US business and political goals "undemocratic".
In these "undemocratic" countries there usually are forces opposed to the current government. These forces are naturally supported by the US and are touted as "beacons of democracy" by the US.
The US-loyal media will go to great lengths to highlight [possibly distorted] facts of violation of democratic principles by the unfriendly governments when dealing with the democratic [read US-sponsored] opposition.

This is how people in the US (and her ally countries) get this idea that criticising Putin in Russia will get you into gaol but criticising Saakashvili in Georgia is as easy as disagreeing with Kevin Rudd here.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2008)

kennas said:


> I agree.
> 
> Got a solution?




The Romans had the solution but it probably wouldn't go down well with the UN.

gg


----------



## awg (18 October 2008)

kennas said:


> I agree.
> 
> Got a solution?




Unfortunately, I see no other option than to withdraw asap.

This will have many unfortunate implications.

But not as many as staying.

The Muslims regard this conflict as a Crusade ( in my opinion), and I tend to agree, if you look at it from their perspective

Australia has no business being there, we have regional matters to attend to.

The cost of supporting the fighting and the personal cost to the injured soldiers is a waste of money.

In my view, when something is inevitable, one should act quickly, to limit loss

I believe that we will see many countries withdrawing their forces, ie Dutch, Japan...this will make Oz position untenable.

Pakistan holds the key, and that country is ready to descend into Hell.

I dont think the USA has any choice either...remember Vietnam.

In my view, it would be far better to stop wasting money killing, and if you want to win hearts and minds, donate food and other neccesities of life.

If the world falls into a Crusade type scenario, the outcome will be unimaginable.

I believe if the Democrats are elected in the US, withdrawl is far more likely


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

kennas said:


> 1. War can be won in a few ways, depending on the goal. A couple of them may be; total distruction, or liberation...
> Afghanistan fits the later.
> 
> 2. So, hearts and minds is the ultimate goal, imo, which ISAF is trying to achieve. Australia are playing a large part in that with the deployment of the engineers
> ...



kennas
1. agree
2. agree
3. agree - BUT you ain't gonna achieve WHAM anywhere 
:topic (including Afghanistan)  when you're killing thousands of innocents (as the Yanks are prone to do)  

PS Here's the transcipt (and/or video) of that Interview (Enough Rope) between Denton and Khan.  Imran Khan sure made sense to me 

http://www.abc.net.au/tv/enoughrope/transcripts/s2389924.htm



> ANDREW DENTON: I’d like to show some photos from your journey there this was in ’92 and what you discovered is that pretty much everyone, all the men in the region had a rifle usually a Kalashnikov is that right?
> 
> IMRAN KHAN: Look every super power that has come there starting from Darius who was a Persian when Persians were super powers, to Alexander, to the Mongolians, to the Mongols who were a super power, to the British, to the Russians, every super power has when they’ve got stuck there. Because every man is a warrior, every man is armed even now every man carries a gun.
> 
> *The important thing to understand is that which I’ve actually tried to explain to the American Senators and Politicians, basically what they’re asking Pakistan to do, what they were in the beginning, that there was something like 800 to 1200 Al Qaeda supposedly in that tribal area, to get them they had basically they’re pushing about a million armed men towards them. Now to get 800 to 1200 people, it is the most moronic policy that they’re alienating a million men who are potential recruits to Al Qaeda*.




PS I agree with you that the Aussie Engineers are doing a fantastic job there - as are the SAS. (brave bastards).

PS I was amazed a couple of months back when Joel Fitzgibbon (Minsiter for Defence) admitted he was pessimistic about Afghhanistan.  I always thought Commanders-in-Chief were supposed to remain optimistic.  Now perhaps he was being realistic,  ... but I still wonder how the soldiers are feeling at the moment - a penny (twopence?)  for their thoughts as they say


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> Kennas, I respect your opinion on this stuff.  You've been much closer to the coalface that I have.
> 
> but (again on Afghanistan) - brilliant interview on Enough Rope,  Denton with Imran Khan - He says this type of war will only be won by winning the hearts and minds - (and also says there is no doubt he will one day be PM of Pakistan! )
> 
> ...




The big point that must be made clear here is the South Ossetians are basically predominantly, mostly Russians. They carry Russian passports even though they live technically out of Russia. So naturally they will feel that the attackers - Georgia - are bad.  I don't like the Georgian leader and the way he talks by the way.

Notice how Russia did not go to the security council to get approval for their actions. That is the big difference between Russia and the west, though.


----------



## noident (18 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Notice how Russia did not go to the security council to get approval for their actions. That is the big difference between Russia and the west, though.




Er... who's "the west"? If it's the US... then last time they wanted to attack someone they did indeed go to the UN, were told not to do it, declared all the international bodies (UN and all) "irrelevant" and went it alone. Just as bad, if not worse, as not asking anyone at all.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 October 2008)

awg said:


> The war in Afganistan can never be won.
> 
> They have been fighting and dying for thousands of years
> 
> ...




So who were the infidels when the taliban - a minority - were fighting with the REAL Muslims?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The Romans had the solution but it probably wouldn't go down well with the UN.
> 
> gg




I repeat the Romans had the solution to godbothering nations.

Any comment.??

gg


----------



## Julia (18 October 2008)

> =kennas;351176
> 
> ..... they recently completed a hospital, but there's no one to staff it. Perhaps Aussies will staff it in the future, either NGO or Army. I think it's been set up with the intention of an Aussie medical team manning it till they can get their own staff.



How very nice.   We can't get sufficient staff to work in our own hospitals.
Where will they 'get their own staff'?  Do they have a medical school?
Australia should never have become involved in this war.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 October 2008)

Julia said:


> How very nice.   We can't get sufficient staff to work in our own hospitals.
> Where will they 'get their own staff'?  Do they have a medical school?
> Australia should never have become involved in this war.




Didn't you vote unashamedly for the liberals over this period Julia?


----------



## Julia (18 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Didn't you vote unashamedly for the liberals over this period Julia?



I vote for the least awful option, given that I am obliged to vote.
And what difference would voting Labor have made?  They fully supported the war in Afghanistan.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The Romans had the solution but it probably wouldn't go down well with the UN.
> 
> gg




to get back on topic, and to move away from sociological answers to the Afghanistan problem, I can see the Russians moving in on Afghanistan once the ineffecive UN move out,  and doing a Roman solution to the impasse that exists in that godforsakengodbothering place.

gg


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

hell I fully supported and still support the war in Afghanistan as well.
Just that we should have won it. - and we were there!!! 

Instead we listen to idiots like John McCain who said  "we've won Afghanistan, let's start a new war in Iraq"... 

And the rest , as they say, is "his story" - namely - a giant stuffup.  

Now we'll probably lose two wars.  

Youtube follows , First couple of minutes refer - although it's all interesting imo 

 John Mccain flip flops on Afghanistan, copies Obama position


----------



## chops_a_must (18 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> to get back on topic, and to move away from sociological answers to the Afghanistan problem, I can see the Russians moving in on Afghanistan once the ineffecive UN move out,



Unfortunately, I can see the same thing happening.

They will want to have a physical barrier between the gas fields in Iran, and China.

Not to mention what is reputed to exist in Afganistan.


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ... and doing a Roman solution to the impasse that exists in that godforsakengodbothering place.



lemme guess, it involves a tank with 5 gears right?
one forward  and ... etc etc 

hey gg - where is the Vatican again ? - hey in Rome... godforsakengodbothering place that it is


----------



## chops_a_must (18 October 2008)

Julia said:


> I vote for the least awful option, given that I am obliged to vote.
> And what difference would voting Labor have made?  They fully supported the war in Afghanistan.




Sorry, I thought you meant the wider war.

I don't understand the opposition to the Afgani war. I'm probably as left as they come, but if we pull out, we have to accept much more widespread and serious problems and implications...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2008)

Excuse the judgemental tone.

all the above 5 or 6 posts are deadbeat posts.

This is not talking about planning permission in the Blue Mountains.

This is War.

You guys are monks in a monastery beset by Vikings.

Pray!

gg


----------



## Julia (18 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Sorry, I thought you meant the wider war.
> 
> I don't understand the opposition to the Afgani war. I'm probably as left as they come, but if we pull out, we have to accept much more widespread and serious problems and implications...




Leaving now can't be equated with never having gone in there in the first place.

Are you aware of recent suggestions from the heads of the fighting forces there that the war is unwinnable and it will be necessary to negotiate with the Taliban?

Either way, what do you think should happen?  Do you think this war is winnable by the so called Allies, given the failure of all previous invading forces?  And given the apparent tribal and bellicose nature of much of the population?   Do we go on indefinitely allowing young soldiers to die, not to mention all the civilian population?

It's just a godawful mess for which I never could see any rational justification.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 October 2008)

Julia said:


> Leaving now can't be equated with never having gone in there in the first place.
> 
> Are you aware of recent suggestions from the heads of the fighting forces there that the war is unwinnable and it will be necessary to negotiate with the Taliban?
> 
> ...



I think we should stay.

It is this generation's holocaust, and I'll be buggered if we let it happen again.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Excuse the judgemental tone.
> 
> all the above 5 or 6 posts are deadbeat posts.
> 
> ...




gg this is to lengthen the post to 3 characters


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> to get back on topic, and to move away from sociological answers to the Afghanistan problem, I can see the Russians moving in on Afghanistan once the ineffecive UN move out,  and doing a Roman solution to the impasse that exists in that godforsakengodbothering place.
> 
> gg




the posts seem to have dried up.

so this is what I see as "What russia is up to in afghanistan" 

not the title thread but the lefties have taken it that way, so lets stay with 
it.

the dutch and the aussies so far from home by attrition of losing 5 or 10 soldiers will move out.

a realignment will occur with the taliban transcendent.

all their atrocities on women, free thinkers etc will recommence.

Russia shares a land border with Afghanistan

it can move into Afghanistan and be within spitting distance of  tehran and the gulf. They have for 400 years wanted a warm water port.

they have enormous tactical knowledge of the theatre of war in afghanistan  from their previous experience.

they will move in and have a sturm und drang and decimate the godbothering male population and russianify the province.

so that is what I think the Russians are up to.

gg


----------



## kitehigh (19 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> the posts seem to have dried up.
> 
> so this is what I see as "What russia is up to in afghanistan"
> 
> ...




Russian doesn't share a land border with Afghanistan,, look it up on Google earth.  The Soviet Union did, but the Union is a distant memory now.

There is no way Russia is going to go back into Afghanistan.  They are not stupid.

The Dutch are looking at withdrawing all their troops by the end of next year, good riddance to them they haven't been particular useful anyway.  

The Australian Government has no intention of pulling out in the short to medium term.  Once the Dutch pull out the Americans will move in to fill the void, which will be a bonus to our troops as they will get much more Air support and other indirect fire support which has been lacking.  The Americans will probably bring in a lot of their Special Forces into the Theater and there will be closer cooperation between our forces and theirs.  

This is what I think will pan out in the next 14 to 18 months.


----------



## qmanthebarbarian (19 October 2008)

With 2 ex KGB sociopaths who would vividly remember mother russia being screwed by by uncle sam running the country I wouldn't be surprised what happens.

I can remember 4 months ago Israelis saying that Iran had around 6 months before it would have enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. It takes around 6 months to build a nuclear warhead, given enough enriched uranium. September Israeli PM asks Bush to support a strike on Iran. USA sells Israel bunker busting bombs. Russian nuclear weapons scientist who intelligence insist has no ties to the Russian government is in Iran. can't see even the nice lady heading israel atm or more importantly her backers being satisfied with a nuclear iran.

Russia has forces in Georgia, Georgia controls a key supply line for the very commodity the russian economy is dependant on. Economy of USA and UK essentially crippled to the point where NY and London may no longer be keys to global finance. usa armed forces stretched in the middle east, leaving iraq would be a disaster. iran budgeted for oil above current levels. OPEC wanting price of oil around 90 usd and willing to cut production to see price revert to that level. russian stocks slaughtered, the georgian foray masterminds are suffering severe public backlash.

surely if you were russia you'd be rooting for an israeli attack on iran? with an opec cut to production likely the supply shock resulting from an attack would be devasting - but would israel be prepared to accept this or a nuclear iran?

perhaps not a likely scenario but i just wonder who is taking delivery of oil at the moment?


----------



## Julia (19 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I think we should stay.
> 
> It is this generation's holocaust, and I'll be buggered if we let it happen again.



Can you explain the parallels with the holocaust?


----------



## IFocus (19 October 2008)

> The US (and her allies) have adopted a very simple yet effective propagandist tactic of declaring those governments which are not very friendly to the US business and political goals "undemocratic".
> In these "undemocratic" countries there usually are forces opposed to the current government. These forces are naturally supported by the US and are touted as "beacons of democracy" by the US.
> The US-loyal media will go to great lengths to highlight [possibly distorted] facts of violation of democratic principles by the unfriendly governments when dealing with the democratic [read US-sponsored] opposition.




My point wasn't very well made but in the US administrations do change and you can participate in that process. In Russia doing this will likely put you in jail.

For all the faults with the US (too many to list here) its still the better option over Russia 




> This is how people in the US (and her ally countries) get this idea that criticising Putin in Russia will get you into gaol but criticising Saakashvili in Georgia is as easy as disagreeing with Kevin Rudd here.





Cannot say I get that impression I hear that Saakashvili and his mob are no better than the Mafia his actions prove the Mafia are smarter.


----------



## Sean K (22 October 2008)

Julia said:


> How very nice.   We can't get sufficient staff to work in our own hospitals.
> Where will they 'get their own staff'?  Do they have a medical school?
> Australia should never have become involved in this war.



So, lets not provide any medical support in the aftermath of Rwanda, to East Timor, The Solomans etc...



Australians have better health care than most of the world, lets share it around. 

(PC kennas hat on)


----------



## Calliope (22 October 2008)

There may be many reasons why we are in Afghanistan. But there are much better reasons for not being there. The main one is that the war on the Taliban is unwinnable. Russia has no intention of going back there after their last fiasco created so many Russian widows and mourning mothers for nothing.

I do know however why we are propping up basket cases like East Timor, Papua New Guinea and the Solomons. If we didn't they would ask China for help.


----------



## Julia (22 October 2008)

kennas said:


> Australians have better health care than most of the world, lets share it around.



Clearly you have either been out of the country for too long, or have never lived in a regional area.


----------



## Sean K (23 October 2008)

Julia said:


> Clearly you have either been out of the country for too long, or have never lived in a regional area.



Possibly. Never lived in a regional area. Does Yackandandah count? Visited a few aboriginal communities who are doing it tough, but do get some type of health support. 

Can't remember why we're discussing this.

Oh, the hospital that the engineers have built in Afghanistan, that we may staff through our medical capacity. I suppose you need to look at the global picture to work out where we should prioritise our national assets, and individuals need to do the same. If there's a short term need to assist a foreign country in greater need then ourselves, perhaps we should assist. Perhaps there's a greater global requirement for Australian doctors and nurses to go to places such as Darfur, Afghanistan, East Timor, etc etc, as the situations present themselves. I certainly admire those medical people that give their time and effort, often free of charge, to assist countries after national disasters and conflicts through NGOs, and the Defence Force medical teams deploying into dangerous situations to assist those in need. 

Perhaps I'm not seeing it the right way, and we should not allow people to deploy overseas to assist when there are lines for the doctors for a check up in regional areas.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 October 2008)

Russia fired another missile yesterday. It was 31 years old!


----------



## Buddy (23 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Russia fired another missile yesterday. It was 31 years old!




Did it work?


----------



## 2020hindsight (4 December 2008)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/04/2438333.htm?section=justin]



> Russia welcomes warming of NATO ties
> Posted 23 minutes ago
> 
> Russia has welcomed NATO's declaration that it wanted to repair ties after a war earlier this year between Russia and NATO-aspirant Georgia.
> ...


----------



## Buddy (7 January 2009)

Russia cuts gas supply to Europe.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24882917-2703,00.html

So we know Putin has been playing cat and mouse with Ukraine but this latest move raises the stakes somewhat.  Methinks he needs to be careful from now, as he has directly impacted NATO states, and we all know what that can potentially result in. I suggest that if this carries on, then forget about the Israel/Gaza skirmish as it will pall into insignificance.  I seem to recall that Ukraine still has some Nukes.  Can anyone confirm this?  They will not be a pushover like Georgia.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (7 January 2009)

This youtube clip shows how difficult it can be for Europe and its supply of gas. It is quite clear why Russia is teaming up with Iran and putting pressure on Georgia.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=n6KMpVfFYTs&NR=1


----------



## numbercruncher (7 January 2009)

Yes clearly Russia is trying to dominate the world via energy policy, shame its winter in Europe and a bludy cold one at that .....


----------



## robert toms (7 January 2009)

Conspiracy theorists abound...Could it be that Gasprom execs are trying to get maximum price for their product?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 January 2009)

Very interesting video.The presumptuous news announcer mention a likeness to Ezekiel, 38th. chapter.I found this chapter and some of it reads ... 



> The Holy Bible: King James Version. 2000.
> 
> The Book of the Prophet
> Ezekiel
> ...




Now, if these people let go of what has been implanted in their minds over many generations of families then they would be empty, yet enlightened, with space to realise a freer existance.Their lives are filled with religious gobbldy gook and enforced by the rulers (jailers ) in their respective countries and if the ruler says we must die because the bible or koran says to, then blindly they will follow.

As an outsider living a life of greater freedom than those indoctrinated beings, it is much easier to see the stupidity of the leaders in control of the state mindset.

As history has shown, wars come and go, in turn teaching us a great deal about the imperfection of mind.


----------



## Buddy (7 January 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> Very interesting video.The presumptuous news announcer mention a likeness to Ezekiel, 38th. chapter.I found this chapter and some of it reads ...
> 
> 
> 
> ...





My server blocks youtube so am unable to view it. Can you write out a sketch of what it is about. And what's Gog and Magog got to do with it, as there is much conjecture as to where these places might be if they ever existed at all? I guess that's the problem with the bible, koran and the rest of that godbothering rubbish. Problem is some old bloke sits down to write an entertaining yarn (much like Tolkein did with LoR) or phrophecies to make a few bucks (Nothrodameous, or the old ducks in the No Idea), and then over the ages it comes to be interpretted as real and truthfull.

Yes, maybe Gasprom is trying to leverage on price. But wouldn't they already be getting market price from EU (but maybe not Ukraine, if what we a read to believe is true)? However, I suspect it has more to do with the imperialist ambitions of Putin et al, and Russia's desire to counter NATO & EU. Anyway, it looks like Ukraine is shaping up as a new hotspot.


----------



## Glen48 (7 January 2009)

So far after every depression there has been a war.. who will start the next one?


----------



## IFocus (7 January 2009)

robert toms said:


> Conspiracy theorists abound...Could it be that Gasprom execs are trying to get maximum price for their product?




No its about Russia securing her borders after US meddling at a time of US weakness same as Georgia.


----------



## numbercruncher (7 January 2009)

Its GaZprom folks ...


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 January 2009)

numbercruncher said:


> Yes clearly Russia is trying to dominate the world via energy policy, shame its winter in Europe and a bludy cold one at that .....



Funny how these conflicts always start when demand soars and Russia is under massive technical pressure to boost production.

Could it be, just maybe, that they can't actually get the gas out of the ground quickly enough and need a convenient excuse rather than admitting the true situation?

I'm not saying that explains the whole situation, but I do suspect it maybe a factor in why gas has become so central to the issues at the moment.


----------



## doctorj (7 January 2009)

Gazprom is (50.1% ?) state owned. It's not unreasonable to say that the russian govt could/would/does use Gazprom for political ends.

I don't think this is entirely Russia's fault though. From what I hear, Russian gas is still flowing to Ukraine, but perhaps at a reduced rate. It is actually Ukraine that turned off the taps to Europe (perhaps to leverage EU political pressure on Russia). Russian gas is still flowing to Europe via their 3 other pipelines.

I believe the pricing issue is only part of it. Ukraine is a long way behind in their payments to Russia for gas purchased.


----------



## GumbyLearner (8 January 2009)

robert toms said:


> Conspiracy theorists abound...Could it be that Gasprom execs are trying to get maximum price for their product?




All the Ukraine needs is for one of the big three like Ford to build a new plant in the Ukraine. Much like they did in the 1930's. Export a few American baseball playing autoworkers to go with it. And teach those Ukrainians once a again how to swing a baseball bat and play some ball!


----------



## Buddy (8 January 2009)

Maybe it's also got something to do with securing the re-lease (or whatever you want to call the arrangement) in 2017 for the Russian Naval base at Sevastopol. I reckon the Russians still want a base in the Black Sea to make mischief.


----------



## MrBurns (8 January 2009)

kennas said:


> "We are not the initiators of this new round of the arms race," said Putin..




Wouldn't trust that shifty bastard one bit.


----------



## sinner (8 January 2009)

I have heard talk from a self proclaimed geopoliticist for a fair while now that Russia plans on taking the Ukraine (or at least a large chunk of it) back for itself.

It will be interesting to see what happens as we tend to disagree on certain things. He thinks I am an "economist" blinded by charts and numbers which I find a bit rediculous to suggest I don't examine the greater context, while he claims to looks at the greater context and I claim he is a dork :

To me, it seems much more likely the Russians are just scrambling to do anything they can to prop up the POO before they end up "Icelanded".


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (8 January 2009)

sinner said:


> I have heard talk from a self proclaimed geopoliticist for a fair while now that Russia plans on taking the Ukraine (or at least a large chunk of it) back for itself.
> 
> It will be interesting to see what happens as we tend to disagree on certain things. He thinks I am an "economist" blinded by charts and numbers which I find a bit rediculous to suggest I don't examine the greater context, while he claims to looks at the greater context and I claim he is a dork :
> 
> To me, it seems much more likely the Russians are just scrambling to do anything they can to prop up the POO before they end up "Icelanded".



Russia is desperate. They are not innovative and generally take by force.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 January 2009)

Buddy said:


> My server blocks youtube so am unable to view it. Can you write out a sketch of what it is about. And what's Gog and Magog got to do with it, as there is much conjecture as to where these places might be if they ever existed at all?




Frayed knot buddy, can`t dwell on that book much these days `cause it`s "the never ending story".Your server blocks you tube hey, spoiled sports they are.


----------



## Sean K (5 February 2009)

With their resurgance, (pending POO) Russia seem to be gathering allies around their borders to fortify their posistion, gather politcal strength, and create a buffer between them and the 'West' - USA and GB. Their problem now is that the 'West' seemingly have Germany on their team. 




> MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- A Russian-led bloc of post-Soviet nations has agreed to establish a rapid-reaction military force to combat terrorists and respond to regional emergencies, Russian media reported Wednesday.
> 
> The decision came a day after reports that Kyrgyzstan is planning to close a strategically important U.S. military base that Washington uses to transport troops and supplies into Afghanistan.
> 
> ...





Too early to see how the teams will settle, but the world divide seems to be going by these major players:

Blue Team:

USA
GB
France
Germany
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Israel
Australia
NZ


Red Team:

China
Russia
North Korea
Iran
Pakistan

Question mark?
India

On the sidelines:

Some Arab nations:
Saudi
Egypt


And others who have any influence:
??

I've written off many potential countires because of their political and military weakness and insignificance. Would be interested in others ideas about the teams?


It's going to be very untidy, I hope not...


----------



## doctorj (5 February 2009)

I think Russia sees the current economic crisis as an opportunity to solidify existing relationships with marginal countries around its borders and build new relationships with countries not necessarily aligned to the West.

I think your list is pretty thorough, though I doubt India would fall with the Reds.  Their economy is very closely linked to the US/UK and Pakistan aligning with Russia would probably be enough to seal the deal.

The other country I would include is the Ukraine - with a question mark.  Russia sees the country as something that should belong to them.  Ukrainians are passionately against this, but there are enough Russians in country to make it doubtful.  Throw in compulsary military service, conscription, 7.4mill men between 18 and 49, reasonably solid military spending and a history filled with war and there's a potential powder keg.


----------



## sinner (6 February 2009)

Hi guys,

This article just out

"The Russian Resurgence" by George Friedman Stratfors 2009 Forecast. Foreward by John Mauldin. 
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12528.htm


----------



## Sean K (6 February 2009)

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> This article just out
> 
> ...



Good article sinner, thanks.

It's certainly going to be an interesting next 20 years for us. I imagine some quite historic events to unfold in the post Soviet, declining USA, second great depression, emerging Chindia and resurgent Russia world. 

Put your hard hat on!


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 February 2009)

Nuclear arms reduction on the U.S. agenda with octagenarian Henry K. asked to visit Russia .... 

Cold warrior Henry Kissinger woos Russia for Barack Obama



> Henry Kissinger, the pioneer of Cold War detente during the Nixon era, has made a return to frontline politics after President Barack Obama reportedly sent him to Moscow to win backing from Vladimir Putin's government for a nuclear disarmament initiative.






> Russia has long called for a new agreement to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expires on Dec 5. Under START, the two Cold War adversaries agreed to halve their stockpiles to 5,000 warheads apiece. An addendum negotiated in 2002 under the START framework saw both sides agree to cut the number of warheads in service to between 1,700 and 2,200 each.


----------



## Sean K (18 March 2009)

World wide depression imminent. Time to build up the military....



*Russia announces major arms buildup*

MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Russia is planning a "comprehensive rearmament" of its military, President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday.

The announcement comes amid concerns in Moscow over the performance of its forces during last year's invasion of Georgia, an expert on the Russian military told CNN.

Christopher Langton, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said the campaign against the former Soviet republic had revealed significant weaknesses within Russia's armed forces. 

"The Georgia thing was a wake-up call on a number of fronts," said Langton, a former British military and defense attache in Russia. "Things they expected to perform well didn't -- communications, the air force. It took five days, which is quite a long time, to suppress another country's air defenses, quite a small country's."

Medvedev said the "most important task is to re-equip the [Russian] Armed Forces with newest weapons system," in televised remarks to defense ministry officials. He said the process had already begun and would accelerate through 2011.


----------



## metric (18 March 2009)

kennas said:


> World wide depression imminent. Time to build up the military....
> 
> 
> 
> ...




GM opens its first factory in Russia (in mid 2008)
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2008-11-07-gm-russia-assembly-plant_N.htm

Ford leads the race on Russia’s roads  (mid 2008)
http://rbth.ru/articles/2008/03/20/ford.html

at the beginning of the first depression, in 1928 ford retooled the russian auto industry,. factories the russians used to build their war machine to defeat germany....

in 2008 ford AND gm have retooled the russian auto industry......history repeating? or pure coincidence?

public works, britain 1900s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Acts_of_Parliament_of_the_United_Kingdom_Parliament,_1900-1919

public works programmes 1930's.
http://www.u.arizona.edu/~fishback/...n Socioeconomic Welfare During the 1930s.html

Obama Pledges Public Works on a Vast Scale 
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07radio.html

all pure coincidence...or is there a war being organised?



.


----------



## doctorj (18 March 2009)

metric said:


> all pure coincidence...or is there a war being organised?



I guess it takes all sorts...

:screwy:


----------



## shag (18 March 2009)

russia is just posturing.
they want leverage over obama re the starwars, american move into their european territory and asian stans, plus i'd say iran was hot in the talks whyen obama tries to deal with putin.
putin will have obama for breakfast. he at least trusted bush and knew bush was capable of doing non pc moves.
i wouldnt want to be obama, bombers in cuba, then a new '62 move, is a strong threat. 
now hes got his finances sorted, the oligarchs under control, he can push his weight around.
the only thing going for obama is who wants a new cold war, other than the millitary and co, russia wants dosh, not spend it on warfare.
they both have the chineese to contend with also. hes got them on his border.....


----------



## Naked shorts (18 March 2009)

kennas said:


> World wide depression imminent. Time to build up the military....
> 
> 
> 
> ...




One thing that I thought interesting, is ASIO started advertising jobs on offer everywhere about two weeks ago. 
*looking for a job in a trading capacity* > here is your first result, a job from ASIO!


----------



## metric (18 March 2009)

doctorj said:


> I guess it takes all sorts...
> 
> :screwy:




well may you scratch your head.....lol

 is that all you can do...in absence of original opinion...?


.


----------



## metric (18 May 2009)

Pipelineistan goes Af-Pak





> http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KE14Ag02.html
> 
> By Pepe Escobar
> 
> ...




full article....go to link above.....


----------



## metric (18 May 2009)

the above article is pretty well mainstream, and is no conspiracy. it answers a lot of questions as to why certain things are happening at the moment.



.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 July 2014)

A couple of thoughts based on recent news items and a bit of online searching.

1. Crude oil and refined products (petrol etc) account for 54% of Russia's total exports by value, and the oil industry provides about 50% of government revenue. So Russia is very much an "oil country".

2. Russia's oil production is forecast to drop 6.3% by 2016. This is their own official forecast reported recently by various media (online search will find it).

3. That 6.3% production drop works out at a 9.1% drop in exports assuming that Russia's own oil consumption remains unchanged.

4. A 9.1% oil export drop = a 4.9% fall in Russia's total exports (of everything) and about a 3% drop in government revenue. 

Those figures aren't massive until you realise that they are the change over just a year or two, and that further production and export declines seem likely. That economic trouble lies ahead may explain some of the recent goings on in Russia I think. Things generally tend not to go well in any country where the economy is in trouble.


----------



## Bintang (18 January 2015)

*Russia Has Reduced Gas supplies to the EU?*
I have seen a couple of web articles during the last 2 days stating that Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian energy giant Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to and through Ukraine to the EU.
However, I have been unable to find any reports of a similar nature in the main stream media.
It ought to be front page news imo so I'm wondering what's really going on or whether perhaps the reports I have seen are unreliable.


----------



## DB008 (28 February 2015)

Wow.

Putin doesn't stuff around.

Latest victim.




> *Russia opposition politician Boris Nemtsov shot dead*​
> A leading Russian opposition politician, former Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov, has been shot dead in Moscow, Russian officials say.
> 
> An unidentified attacker in a car shot Mr Nemtsov four times in the back as he crossed a bridge in view of the Kremlin, police say.
> ...




Some context of where it happened.


----------



## Bintang (28 February 2015)

DB008 said:


> Wow.
> 
> Putin doesn't stuff around.
> 
> ...




The CIA did it - according to conspiracy theorists.


----------



## moXJO (28 February 2015)

Bintang said:


> The CIA did it - according to conspiracy theorists.




Thats just what the FSB and SVR want you to believe


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2015)

Bintang said:


> *I have seen a couple of web articles during the last 2 days stating that Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian energy giant Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to and through Ukraine to the EU.*



*

No idea whether or not they've actually done it right now. But Russian gas is very clearly a political weapon that they're willing to use against the EU. 

The rational thing for the EU to do is to get out of reliance on Russian gas as soon as possible before a real cut-off occurs in a big way. It's one of those "will probably happen sometime" things and they're in real trouble when it does. Solution = wind, solar, hydro, coal, nuclear, geothermal, crop wastes, oil shale, shale oil, shale gas, coal seam methane, wood, chicken poo and anything else that will keep the lights on without relying on the Russians. 

The issue with Russia is as much an engineering and economic one as it is political. End the "must use whatever's cheapest" mantra and switch to energy that's from stable, safe suppliers and that at least partly solves any issues between Russia and the EU. The Russians can then do whatever they like with their gas, but that won't involve selling it to the EU. *


----------



## Bintang (1 March 2015)

moXJO said:


> Thats just what the FSB and SVR want you to believe




Or that the CIA wants us to believe that the FSB and the SVR are trying to make us believe that it was the CIA.


----------



## SirRumpole (1 March 2015)

Some very nasty stuff going on

Vlad can't forget the old KGB days it would seem

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-...demns-murder-critic-putin-blames-foes/6271576


----------



## sydboy007 (1 March 2015)

a very interesting post by gunnamatta

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/02/weekend-links-february-28-march-1-2015/

The Message of the Nemtsov Killing and the Killing of the Nemtsov Message 

Boris Nemtsov was an overt critic of the Putin administration, both for corruption and its recentralization of power, over the entire Putin era, and more recently for Russia’s involvement in Eastern Ukraine (blame for which he laid at the feet of Putin). He was a political and social figure and his killing is significant for a range of reasons. Within a short period of news of the slaying on the Bolshoy Moskvoretsky Bridge, within a few hundred metres of the Kremlin Red Square and St Basil’s Russian President Vladimir Putin had condemned the murder and offered condolences, and taken the investigation of the killing under his personal authority. No matter how that investigation proceeds and what it uncovers, as well as when, it will need to be handled very carefully. 

This time it’s different

The difference between the killing of Nemtsov and the numerous other high profile killings in Russia over the last say 15 years or so is that it is an overtly political killing, with no other ostensible explanation whatsoever, and in this regard differs from the murders of Anna Politkovskaya, Andrei Kozlov, Sergei Magnitsky, Alexander Litvinenko or Paul Khlebnikov, which have attracted international attention, and a host of lesser known murders of journalists, financial figures, and judges over the same period. Politkovsksya was an investigative journalist who no doubt had uncovered things unpleasant for the Putin regime but had equally uncovered plenty to make various criminal figures unhappy. Andrei Kozlov, the central banker who was gunned down in 20076 was in the process of closing down dodgy banks, and had obviously traced the links back to someone with the money to have him knocked off, Alexander Litvinenko was obviously a part of the murky world inhabited by security and the oligarchs, and Paul Khlebnikov had pissed off plenty of people in his looks at the origins of the wealth of many ‘elite’ Russians in the immediate post-Yeltsin era. The rest were essentially just day to day criminal activity on the streets of Moscow (where these things happen) or were jailors not giving a damn about those in their jails (Magnitsky) – possibly under direction from above, but not so obviously so that you could discount day to day administrative brutality.Nemtsov is different. He had called for a protest march this coming Sunday, he had maintained contact with the Ukraine government, and argued that the Putin government had pushed its own interests in inflaming the war in Eastern Ukraine. A genuine ‘liberal’ in the Russian sense of the word (he pushed for freer markets and a more accountable state and bureaucracy for two decades, in and out of the Russian duma and including a stint as Deputy Premier under Yeltsin, who was believed to see him as a protÃ©gÃ©) he was also acutely aware that the advent of market capitalism in Russia had created an oligarchy, which had fit hand in glove with an long standing national predilection for corruption, and had congealed into the Putin regime, from which it showed no sign of evolving any further. He also understood that imposing sanctions on Russian institutions and individuals while welcoming the beneficiaries of corruption into international capital markets, was setting the western world and Russia onto an endless loop in their relations. He regularly appeared in the Russian press and regularly criticised what was unfolding around him, in a nuanced and perceptive manner which may not have made him as popular as other Russian opposition identities, but was arguably more likely to unsettle those in power. The only advantage to having him whacked is a domestic political advantage, and that advantage set against the backdrop of him being a reasonably marginal figure in a political policy sense, against the widespread perception (rightly so for mine) of Russian liberals as being the living refrain of chaotic incompetence of the 1990s, fragmented beyond all plausible ability to produce effective government, and often carrying corruption issues of their own. For mine it isn’t a killing to shape national policy, it is a killing to make a point about Russian politics, and although it is only a couple of hours ago this is what makes it a definitive point in the Putin era. 

Russia’s monolithic power vertical

Moscow is the sort of place where, once you are there, you tend to assume that there is a big monolithic ‘regime’ controlling everything occurring around you. It is only after you are there for a while that you start to twig to the idea that there are groups within that monolith, and that the pro-Putin crowd, whilst certainly the biggest and most powerful of those groupings, is not the only one.The groups tend to represent obviously interests and desire for power, but often have functional groupings (eg interior or foreign ministry, transport or energy groups) or business interests (various industry and industrial holdings/conglomerates) and some regional interests. In almost any of them you will find fairly hard core atavistic thugs of the type often portrayed in TV shows and the like about Russian criminals, but I would observe that in many of them you will also find perfectly decent ordinary intelligent individuals who would like to live in a world where there was administrative accountability and more overt justice, and a world which was more like what they often assume to be the world of Western Europe or (though less so) the United States. These types often find themselves in the situation of simply trying to make the best out of things that they can, with the power dynamic they are part of unable to afford the opportunity for them to change the system. Often that ultimately devolves down to making the best of the circumstances for their families or friends, and can evolve into the corruption that the individuals themselves have abhorred at some point along their journey. It is not a matter of one clique being ‘good’ and another ‘bad’ but rather that any given clique will involve elements of both, with those elements evolving and changing from issue to issue and circumstance to circumstance. The only constant would be the guy everyone calls boss. The other thing to bear in mind is that Moscow is a place where gunmen knock identities off, often in cold blood, and regularly appear to get away with it, more often than in other major global cities. Russia (though certainly not alone in this) is a nation with plenty of well-trained people who can organise and carry out a killing when they need to, plenty of people who would pay to use such a service, and an administration, legal system and media well versed in exploring, divining and debating motives, meanings, real and decoy facts, produced confessions and on and on and on. Like everything else in Russia, complexity is a given – even for the most straightforward of things. It will need to be to explain why it would be that in a part of Moscow generally festooned with police, not 500 metres from the Kremlin, and with an individual who would rightly assume he would be under a fair bit of surveillance, 2 days prior to him leading a protest rally, someone has driven up, fired seven shots, and driven off. 

Things done differently

That sort of environment for the elites tends to make for some positively astounding processes and links accompanying almost any major project, or potential policy change, or, more particularly, the policy response to social and economic change, and over a long time in Russia, it is in the course of watching these evolve that you tend to get some sort of glimpse into who’s interests are untouchable at what point. I recall well the words of one of the first Russian banking types I ever spoke with who told me straight out, ‘Have a look out the window. Everything you see there will be broadly the same as the major cities of the rest of the world – the skyscrapers, the stations the roads and the cars, and the shops on the streets, and the people who buy things in them – but the way they get there is, here in Moscow, unlike anywhere else. To understand Russia, you need to have an understanding of that process. The people who are part of it, hear and see things which others don’t, their understanding of things happening in that world will be different to someone trying to make logic of it from outside that understanding. It’s about here that the open killing of Nemtsov comes in. It is a fairly straightforward message by someone for someone within that group of interests which influences decisions – and should be seen as such. 

Plausible, implausible and Russian investigations – the official 

The first assumption, which no doubt will fill many pages in the coming days, is that there was some sort of order from someone in authority to have him whacked. It may be eminently plausible, though anyone proposing it would have to ask what the advantage to the administration actually is. Nemtsov was an influential public figure amongst a distinct section of society in Moscow, but he wasn’t wielding policy power and wasn’t an oligarch with immense financial interests threatening someone. He was one of the more high profile Russians prepared to protest against an increasingly authoritarian (or should we call it security obsessed?) Russian state, and one that was prepared to stand in the face of VVPs surge in popularity following the annexation of Crimea, and (at the moment) seemingly reasonably successful involvement in the prosecution of military activities in Eastern Ukraine, as a face of an increasingly obdurate social movement questioning VVP’s administration, and a movement that can certainly be expected to become more substantial as the Presidential popularity recedes and the economic implications some decisions of his administration come home to roost with the Russian public.On the one hand you could say that he wasn’t popular enough to represent a genuine threat to VVP, but on the other you could also say that if you thought the threat his type of politics represented was likely to increase as a threat (and I don’t think the threat of his politics was ever likely to really test the Kremlin) then the time to pressure it would be before it became more overt as a political threat. Even then you would have to wonder, if someone has made the decision to have him killed, if that person would have thought he could become more influential, and greater risk, as a slain ideal than as a living political identity. That could happen.The general form guide from here would be rumours about officials having overstepped their mark overtly or covertly, actively or passively, in aiding or abetting, ignoring warnings of or awareness of facts about the lead up to the killing or those who were planning it, or maybe who will look the other way as those who have done it vanish from the scene. It could be plausible enough no matter what scenario was crafted around those themes. Maybe an investigation could go further to implicate a rogue element in the administration which for some reason was infuriated by something Nemtsov had done – and it should be remembered he was one of the few Russian identities critical of Russian involvement in Eastern Ukraine, as well as the nationality of the woman he was with at the time of his death, against a backdrop of the involvement in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea being very popular domestically – who have planned and carried out a whacking on some form of patriotic urge. Again it is plausible, but you would have to ask if it is going to help the international perception of the Putin administration right at the point where the Minsk II ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine sees a mild pause in the deterioration of its international profile. As always the rebuttal to this line of thought is that the Kremlin won’t care about international perceptions as long as it controls the agenda and levers in Russia. That too would be eminently plausible and the Russian state has never been slick in the PR game, but my gut feel would be that even the Kremlin wouldn’t want any more negative press than it already has at the moment. 

Plausible, implausible and Russian investigations – the provocation and the wildcard 

Of course the next port of inquiry will be the false flag slaying – the idea that someone opposed to Russia (wouldn’t necessarily need to be Ukrainian, but would be most credible if it was) had had Nemtsov killed to make Russia and Putin look bad. To provoke the Putin administration. Given events in Eastern Europe, and the involvement of the Americans and the reams of writings about the activities of envoys, ambassadors, vice president’s sons, neo-Nazis, Jews, the Israeli intelligence, and enough characters to craft a good James Bond script, you could suppose that none of them could be immediately excluded from calculations, though you would tend to think them more improbable. From there another regular red herring tossed into the milieu in these sorts of incidents is the genuine wildcard. Keep your eyes peeled for rumours, of generally far-fetched plausibility, he was sleeping with someone’s wife, had stolen money from someone, was a drug abuser who hadn’t paid his supplier in some time, or has been mistaken for someone else, or had become part of turmoil within Russia’s often zany ‘liberal’ set, or that the woman he was with had some sort of double life he was unaware of.An official investigation could no doubt drag up any of the above, and plausibly even populate a narrative with confessions, caught accomplices or even maybe a gunman. God only knows. One thing I feel confident about is that there will be some sort of investigation, plenty of intriguing headlines and presumably a good posse of interesting characters and plot twists. But none of that will go close to the implications of the murder. To get to that you need to think about the increasing isolation of Russia internationally, the direction the Russian economy is heading and the response to any type of criticism by the current Kremlin administration and VVP as President. 

Meanwhile back at the Kremlin 

The Russian state owns more than half the Russian economy, and courtesy of the national response to the 2008-2009 financial crisis, where it bankrolled oligarchs with cheap loans, is in a position to heavily influence that it doesn’t directly own, and that’s before you get to the authorities and courts (google Bashneft and Yevtushenkov). Russia’s reliance on energy revenues for the budget and current account has been noted since the late 1990s, but only in 2014 did it turn into a serious risk, and by that stage it was a risk that had in many ways been buffered by astute economic management (if not always astute enough) under Alexei Kudrin. That has brought some time to respond to the downturn in crude prices and the financial sanctions which have been imposed on corporate Russia since the annexation of Crimea, along with the collapse of the Ruble which has shaped (or bludgeoned) Russian spending towards domestic producers and away from imports, and enabled the state to continue running a budget surplus. The import substitution has provided a fillip of sorts for the Russian agriculture sector, and no doubt is lending impetus to calls to spend some of the budget on developing import competing sectors in manufacturing and some services. What that does now is enable a nation which has become increasingly isolated internationally to look at something resembling a degree of autarky – particularly given the feeble global demand environment – to support domestic demand (which any government would want to do) and to backstop its strategic capability position (which a government with Russia’s strategic concerns would want). At the same time the response to events in 2014 hasn’t been free from pain for ordinary Russians, and although the annexation of Crimea and confrontation with Ukraine have been popular, it could be expected that the popularity of the Putin administration would have to disenchant more as the economic straightjacket Russia finds itself in starts to tighten – even more so if crude doesn’t rebound. The logical outlet for that type of discontent would be the reprise of the pro-democracy marches of 2012-2013, only this time they would take place against a different backdrop. The state, which has been increasingly alert about the risk of interventions by foreign governments (particularly funding from NGO’s and or other sources from outside Russia pushing social protest inside Russia) in Russia for quite some time, and rise of any sort of protest movement is likely to be the rise of a willing recipient of funding from anywhere. 

The message in the whacking of Boris Nemtsov 

This is where the killing of Nemtsov comes in. He had the political background to be able to influence that protest movement into some form of political entity capable of unsettling the balance of powers currently making up the monolith, and potentially take it beyond the widely ridiculed miasma it currently is. Another logical frontman for this Sunday’s protest rally Alexei Navalny is currently doing a few weeks in jail so that prevents him from being the frontman for now.More strategically it is showing the powers that make up the monolith that being part of the monolith is a game for keeps and which imposes its own discipline. This shouldn’t be underestimated as it can be expected that as Russia’s economy deteriorates and the balance of powers making up the monolith deteriorates, it may occur to one of those powers to reach out to either the protest movement or possibly even the international world to seek to craft a narrative involving it being a part of whatever power structure may follow the current one (not that it is showing any sign of going anywhere anytime soon).That unanimity message will be quite important for the VVP administration to compare with the unfolding chaos in Kiev and Ukraine where a collection of oligarchs which deposed another collection of oligarchs about a year ago is showing every sign of coming apart at the seams. Any rise in, or continuation of (depending on how one sees things) of the chaos in Kiev will remind a Russian public (or have considerable potential to do so) that VVP to some extent has kept a lid on the oligarch set in Russia, and particularly the types of excesses which have been, and are continuing to be, visited on their Ukraine counterparts. Expect to see that refrain pushed in the Russian media (which isn’t to say it isn’t true and that the Kiev government is not every bit as corrupt and dismissive towards its own people as its predecessors were – though sadly that is not the message Russians will be seeing in the international press, which will reinforce the message of the Kremlin at home).More disturbingly though the killing of Boris Nemtsov has echoes in Russia’s past, in the purges which followed on from Stalin’s instigation of the murder of Sergey Kirov back in the 1930s, and the intense centralisation of Russian administrative power which followed. I would have thought that a generation of Russians which has become used to pretty easy access the rest of the world, if not the same types of democratic process found in the rest of the world, would be inclined to react strongly against any curtailment of their right to see whatever they like in their media, their rights to pretty much go wherever they like, and their right to think pretty much whatever they want. But a lot of ordinary Russians do strongly value ‘stability’ over democracy and will tolerate the former taking some heavy handed forms as long as it appears to be in control and delivers predictable outcomes.The murder of Boris Nemtsov should be seen as a message of that control and a warning to those who would upset the balance of Russian power, but also as a harbinger of the debate to come – be it whispered in small protest groups, or waved about on placards in noisy street demonstrations, or debated in the duma, or even through the media – that Russians can make their thoughts known to those who would lead them or they can’t, and of the costs either may entail.


----------



## DB008 (5 March 2015)

*The car used in Putin critic's murder belongs to a Finance Ministry contractor*​


> Russia’s Finance Ministry says that the car being sought in connection with the murder of Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov belonged to a “in-house security service” for the ministry, according to the Russian news agency TASS.






> While the car in question, which reportedly fled the scene of Nemtsov’s murder, didn’t belong to the Finance Ministry directly, the connection to a contractor for the state body raises fresh questions about Kremlin involvement.
> 
> The ministry’s press office told TASS: “The Ford car we are talking about does not belong to the Finance Ministry. This is a vehicle of an in-house security service, an independent FSUE providing services to the Finance Ministry, Goznak and other bodies.”





http://www.businessinsider.com.au/car-used-in-boris-nemtsov-murder-belongs-to-russian-finance-ministry-contractor-2015-3​


----------



## DB008 (11 March 2015)

*Putin Honors Andrei Lugovoi, Suspect in Litvinenko Murder​*


> President Vladimir Putin awarded a state honor to a man suspected by Britain of using radioactive polonium to poison Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko in London nearly a decade ago.
> 
> The medal "for services to the fatherland," second degree, was given to Andrei Lugovoi for his contribution to developing Russia's parliament, according to a citation posted on the official state bulletin.
> 
> ...




http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/517192.html​


----------



## Knobby22 (9 August 2016)

Russian troops are massing on the Ukraine Border in Crimea after an "incident".
And look at this poster of Obama admiring Putin's muscles.


----------



## luutzu (9 August 2016)

Knobby22 said:


> Russian troops are massing on the Ukraine Border in Crimea after an "incident".
> And look at this poster of Obama admiring Putin's muscles.
> 
> View attachment 67671




I would have thought that if Russia is still in its expansionist mood, it'd be parking its jets in Mexico or Canada, not have NATO knocking on its "iron curtain". 

Was listening to ANU lecture on Geography and Strategy. Our former intelligence officer and now academic - Prof. Dibb [?] - are quite dismissive of both China and Russia at the same time blaming them for aggression.

Don't know about our professor, but a state tend not to be aggressive if it's also weak. So you gotta pick which argument you want to make. Can't be both.


----------



## sr20de (18 August 2016)

Putin Says Russia Will Be World’s #1 Exporter Of Non-GMO Foods
A move the U.S. should be taking seriously

http://naturalsociety.com/putin-says-russia-will-be-worlds-1-exporter-of-non-gmo-foods/


----------



## sr20de (18 August 2016)

sr20de said:


> Putin Says Russia Will Be World’s #1 Exporter Of Non-GMO Foods
> A move the U.S. should be taking seriously
> 
> http://naturalsociety.com/putin-says-russia-will-be-worlds-1-exporter-of-non-gmo-foods/




Notably,

The main stream media has shown this video hasn't it?
I assume as informed investors you have seen this video.

***Not Infowars.com***
Putin warns of nuclear war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq3gYQIrkXc

***Infowars.com*** If interested, also forewarning so you can ignore if if you like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ar5p-tV8cQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP9xw9IURV0


----------



## sr20de (18 August 2016)

sr20de said:


> Notably,
> 
> The main stream media has shown this video hasn't it?
> I assume as informed investors you have seen this video.
> ...





Russian military in Crimea get advanced S-400 missile defense system, same as deployed in Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/355732-russian-missile-defense-crimea/

RUSSIAN MILITARY IN CRIMEA GET ADVANCED S-400 MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM, SAME AS DEPLOYED IN SYRIA
Russia further integrating Crimea into its federation
http://www.infowars.com/russian-mil...ile-defense-system-same-as-deployed-in-syria/

(source above RT)


----------



## noirua (23 October 2021)

__





						Vladimir Putin: I’ll protect Russia against Western liberalism like cancel culture and transgender rights
					





					www.msn.com
				




Maybe Vlad has got a point here in some spheres where people set themselves up as right and form groups, sometimes like vigilante groups, and go after others who think differently - my idea and thinking is the way and no other is acceptable?


----------



## waterbottle (18 February 2022)

Hmmmm

Not sure where our other Russian thread went.
A school in the Ukraine was shelled overnight and now there is fingerpointing.

Russia publishes video of troops withdrawing although NATO claiming this is fake news.

Americans insisting that Russia likely to initiate war in the next few days.

I'm getting flashbacks of 2003 when the US tried to convince the world that Saddam had WMDs.

Not sure what to make of it....


----------



## wayneL (18 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Hmmmm
> 
> Not sure where our other Russian thread went.
> A school in the Ukraine was shelled overnight and now there is fingerpointing.
> ...



Yep, that kindergarten shelling just stinks of a fit-up.

Some analysts think the whole situation is a cover for massive arms deals. Now that I can believe.


----------



## The Triangle (19 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> Yep, that kindergarten shelling just stinks of a fit-up.
> 
> Some analysts think the whole situation is a cover for massive arms deals. Now that I can believe.



Wouldn't surprise me in the least.  The American war machine has a lobby on par with big pharma.  They are powerful and have significant influence over senators and most in Washington.    Lockheed, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Northrop all up in the past month vs the S&P.  I'm sure no one is complaining there....  

It's pretty simple for Nato/US/UK to tell Russia if you attack Ukraine, we'll nuke you.   This is why we have nukes - so we can threaten people like Putin and ensure we don't get people acting like Hitler and gradually annexing countries.   Putin is a dictator and does what he wants.  If he doesn't get or attack Ukraine, he at least gets to more easily funnel billions more of Russian money to weapons companies which he more than likely owns.    Biden gets to take some pressure off his decrepit incompetence for a while.  Most Americans still love war mongering, big talking rhetoric and threats and it's usually good in the polls (just so long as they don't send US soldiers).


----------



## Tisme (19 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Wouldn't surprise me in the least.  The American war machine has a lobby on par with big pharma.  They are powerful and have significant influence over senators and most in Washington.    Lockheed, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Northrop all up in the past month vs the S&P.  I'm sure no one is complaining there....
> 
> It's pretty simple for Nato/US/UK to tell Russia if you attack Ukraine, we'll nuke you.   This is why we have nukes - so we can threaten people like Putin and ensure we don't get people acting like Hitler and gradually annexing countries.   Putin is a dictator and does what he wants.  If he doesn't get or attack Ukraine, he at least gets to more easily funnel billions more of Russian money to weapons companies which he more than likely owns.    Biden gets to take some pressure off his decrepit incompetence for a while.  Most Americans still love war mongering, big talking rhetoric and threats and it's usually good in the polls (just so long as they don't send US soldiers).
> 
> View attachment 137789



If history is doomed to repeat an Australian conservative party  will commit Oz to join war and an ALP govt will manage our efforts for FTW.


----------



## sptrawler (19 February 2022)

Tisme said:


> If history is doomed to repeat an Australian conservative party  will commit Oz to join war and an ALP govt will manage our efforts for FTW.



If you are correct, the next election could well define what Australia's future life may look like, what if Labor wins the election?


----------



## Sean K (19 February 2022)

Is there an election coming up in Russia?


----------



## DB008 (20 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Is there an election coming up in Russia?




What difference would that make? The Elections in Russia are rigged on par with the USA


Anyways, saw this. Not sure if true or not, but seems interesting.







.​


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2022)

DB008 said:


> What difference would that make? The Elections in Russia are rigged on par with the USA




Well, I think Russia's might be more dubious. My general point leads to what Vlad is probably really after and that is, a legacy. He would like to be the Tsar that brings the Slavs back together.

The election reference is that he wants to stay in power, forever. He's playing the strong man to win national support to keep him in power.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Well, I think Russia's might be more dubious. My general point leads to what Vlad is probably really after and that is, a legacy. He would like to be the Tsar that brings the Slavs back together.
> 
> The election reference is that he wants to stay in power, forever. He's playing the strong man to win national support to keep him in power.



As I have said before that is a natural wish for Vladimir Vladimirovich, given that NATO if The Ukraine joins that organisation will be closer to Moscow than Rockhampton is to Brisbane, about 5.5 hrs drive in the Arnange. 

Any leader who would tolerate that does not deserve his boiled eggs done to his satisfaction for breakfast. 

If there is to be a war it will be a European/ American vs. Russian war. 

Let us hope our ADF boys ( and in the times we are in I include girls in boys as I am extremely PC )  are not set up for another Singapore 1942. 

Keep them at home to keep an eye on the cousins in China who seem to have lost the plot.

And talking of China, the Russians hate the Chinese more than any Asian nation does. 

gg


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2022)

UN Security Council meeting on Sky and ABC at the moment.


----------



## The Triangle (24 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> UN Security Council meeting on Sky and ABC at the moment.



Just wondering how many different ways different speakers can say Russia will be held accountable without actually holding Russia accountable?  How can so many countries 'stand with Ukraine' yet do absolutely nothing other than ban a few billionaires from entering their country?   It's just embarrassing watching these diplomats speak while Russia does what it wants without being even slightly hindered.  

I preferred when it was Trump who was the dangerously unstable global bully.


----------



## macca (24 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Just wondering how many different ways different speakers can say Russia will be held accountable without actually holding Russia accountable?  How can so many countries 'stand with Ukraine' yet do absolutely nothing other than ban a few billionaires from entering their country?   It's just embarrassing watching these diplomats speak while Russia does what it wants without being even slightly hindered.
> 
> I preferred when it was Trump who was the dangerously unstable global bully.




You never know when a loose cannon might go bang


----------



## DB008 (24 February 2022)

macca said:


> You never know when a loose cannon might go bang




Lol

Yeah right.

Trump walked into North Korea alone. Biden couldn't find his way out of a wet paper bag.


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

Meanwhile the US troops are confused as to which gender they are and trying to decide whether to dye their hair pink or green today.

приятно было познакомиться с вами, товарищи.


----------



## DB008 (24 February 2022)

JUST IN - Russia's military says it has knocked out Ukraine’s air defense assets and airbases.

Videos show Russian cruise missile reportedly striking airfield in Ivano-Frankivsk in Western Ukraine.

Ukrainian military says it shot down 5 Russian planes and Russian helicopter in Eastern Ukraine, Luhansk






Your browser is not able to display this video.










Your browser is not able to display this video.





.


----------



## DB008 (26 February 2022)

JUST IN - Unconfirmed videos have begun to circulating social media this evening of Russian Topol-M ICBM’s on the move, reportedly in Moscow.
@disclosetv





Your browser is not able to display this video.










Your browser is not able to display this video.





​


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2022)

DB008 said:


> JUST IN - Russia's military says it has knocked out Ukraine’s air defense assets and airbases.



Ha Ha . Five weeks later. Dreamtime stuff


DB008 said:


> Ukrainian military says it shot down 5 Russian planes and Russian helicopters



Reports at the time had the following (ISW, 24 Feb):

_US defense officials estimate initial strikes comprised over 100 missiles including a mix of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and sea-launched missiles. An estimated 75 Russian bombers participated in the attack._
_Russia did not successfully ground the Ukrainian air force or cripple the Ukrainian armed forces, enabling several Ukrainian successes on February 24. ISW incorrectly forecast that any Russian offensive would begin with a concentrated air and missile campaign to cripple Ukrainian command and control and infrastructure. _
_The Russian failure to comprehensively strike key Ukrainian assets is a surprising break from expected Russian operations and has likely enabled stiffer Ukrainian defense. The Ukrainian military has shot down seven Russian aircraft and seven helicopters as of 8:00 pm local time, February 24._
_Russia has not demonstrated its full air and missile capabilities and will likely conduct further waves of strikes in the coming days aimed at degrading Ukraine’s command and control and ability to redeploy forces_
One of the reasons the 'blitzkrieg' didn't come off is that very early on, Ukraine managed to capture a mobile radar command post (or 2) and the codes, and managed to turn it back on the Russians. This meant Russki aircraft and helicopters couldn't identify_ friend or foe_, as their software didn't / couldn't differentiate; hence the coordinated attacks came up short.

And here we are in April. The Russian leadership has turned murderous (even more so).


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2022)

I'm dropping in this article 








						How Bill Browder got under Putin’s skin
					

He’s been name-checked by the Russian leader and warned by Moscow’s top prosecutor not to sleep soundly at night, but Bill Browder is unbowed in his crusade to expose Putin’s criminality.




					www.afr.com
				




It's a backgrounder on Bill Browder, and his encounters with Putin and his henchmen. Browder's lawyer was Sergei Magninsky, who _discovered the scam and persistently asked difficult questions about it, he was harassed, imprisoned and eventually beaten to death. Browder himself was expelled and tried in absentia several times._


----------



## noirua (18 June 2022)




----------

