# VIL - Verus Investments



## asx256 (26 August 2008)

since there were no forum about this company i thought to make one myself. here is some info:

http://www.verus.com.au/
According to the website:

"Versus Investments Limited is an Australian-based investment company who identifies and evaluates investment opportunities for superior returns over short, medium and long term periods.
The Company has appointed directors with substantial resource industry experience with the specific aim of seeking investments in the minerals sector.
Verus will continue to pursue companies with allied goals in order to achieve its objectives."

I encourage every one to read todays announcement. Lots of things happening for versus. Any way do your own research.
 
Tuesday 26th August 2008
Verus Investments Limited has announced that the initial stage exploration program at its Eloi Iron Project has been completed.


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## bordercityfirm (20 October 2009)

*VIL and TEX great ozzie companies making it in the USA*

Looks like VIL are coping TEX great work in the USA: 

They are about to commence drilling a huge company maker with:

Excellent Exploration Address
•Situated on undeveloped segment of Fausse Point salt dome
•Surrounding fields have produced over 44 MMbbls of oil
2 MMbbls of condensate 141 BCF of gas

Highly Prospective
•Strong potential production rates at 300‐500 BOPD per sand
•Multiple high productivity sand targets
•Possible well rates up to 1,500 BOPD

1,500 bopd at 50% to VIL is US$ 21,900,000 , just like TEX buying up US assets with ozzie dollars and selling oil which is climbing all the time.

I hold this and TEX, great little companies with huge upside in the next couple of months.


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## BESBS Player (20 October 2009)

G'day BCF.

Jumped on board early this morning as a BESBS play. Heaps of volume - SP went from 2.2c to 3.1 at one stage - I'm wondering if a broking firm gave a recommendation as such a run is hard to explain given no news to the ASX from VIR???

Should be an interesting ride. Apart from your points, I also like the low SP. As a BESBS Player, it offers the incentive of higher leverege. Time will tell where we go with this one.

Cheers,
BESBS


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## bordercityfirm (20 October 2009)

Good on Ya BESBS,

  This is diffinantly right up your street, I got both TEX and VIL at the same time never thought that VIL would run like it has. Don't think they have had a reconmendation from any stock broker I think that it's running on great fundimentals which is great for TEX as well. 

A proven oil area is what I look for in the US at the moment with the strengh of the ozzie dollar and rising oil price.

VIL and TEX have ticked all the boxes for me a while back and good to see fundimentals being paid for.....here's just waiting on TEX.

Good to see you backing a company that will actually spud a well otherwise you would have to drop the "S" at the end of your sign......maybe with VIL you should change to BESAP (Buy Early Sell After Production)


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## BESBS Player (20 October 2009)

bordercityfirm said:


> Good on Ya BESBS,
> 
> Good to see you backing a company that will actually spud a well otherwise you would have to drop the "S" at the end of your sign......maybe with VIL you should change to BESAP (Buy Early Sell After Production)




He,he,he...can be a bit like that at times! CTP delayed (still made good profits) and OEX hopefully soon. Still, just sold JPR as the drill bit turns and LKO are currently drilling down a 4th wombat hole! 

Good luck with TEX.

Cheers,
BESBS


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## BESBS Player (26 October 2009)

VIL seem to have slowly crept up aagin into the mid 2c range (see 2.7c taken at times today).
As a BESBS play, I would like to see drilling occurring before December. If Hartleys are promoting them prior to the drill, this should help get VIL into the punter spotlight.

Interesting times ahead...


Holding VIL at 2.5c


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## bordercityfirm (26 October 2009)

Looked like good support at around 2.4 to 2.6c with a V.W.A.P* of 2.53 today. I took some profit on Friday to buy some TEX (which is cheap atm) but still hold the majority for the long haul. This area of Texas is a proven oil location and for me that’s long term increasing profits (ever heard of Peak oil?).


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## BESBS Player (9 November 2009)

Looks like VIL is now starting to move. Heading towards 3c on much larger volumes than the past couple of weeks. 

Three weeks from spud to results. If we get away in late November, results before Christmas. Starting to look a promising BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) play

Hmmm...maybe a nice bonus. 


Holding VIL at 2.5c


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## stretchie (16 November 2009)

Last ASX announce said that drilling was to be delayed for a couple of weeks. VIL still holding above 2.5c and plenty of volume so it's more in the spotlight now. Drilling starting end November/early Dec with drilling taking 3 weeks, so we still might get something before Xmas  Maybe we'll have a happy new years instead.


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## stretchie (16 November 2009)

I doubled my position today at 2.5c, given a bit of weakness in the Oil price and I'm now holding at avg price of 2.65c.

Doesn't look like Hartley's have covered this stock but I'd imagine more punters would get on board if they did. 

Looking like a standard fall back from the big run up last week. Let's hope it's nothing more than that at this stage.


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## BESBS Player (17 November 2009)

Agree, Stretchie.
Slight delay in drilling means that traders will take money off the table and come back later. Given none of the fundamentals have changed (be it delayed 3 weeks), the SP drop does provide a cheap entry/top-up point.

Happy to hold and wait.


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## BESBS Player (18 November 2009)

As a BESBS player, today's action with VIL suggests that the punters are ready to get back in asap once they think drilling is back on schedule. 
Looks like the motor is revving at the starting line, just waiting for the flag to start. Remember though, any further delay and the punters will move the money for the short interum.

Hope to hold...


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## stretchie (19 November 2009)

We're knocking on the door of 3.2c again after todays action on large volume of 30 mil shares. Looks like the sellers at 2.9 and 3c got largely knocked out and we have more overall buyers than sellers now. 

As long as there's no catastrophes overnight in the US, oil keeps going up and and the dollar continues its downwards march - we should be looking at an attempt on major resistance at 3.2c tomorrow. As a BESBS play this is looking more tasty. I did a search for 'Verus investments' and 'Hartleys' and didn't pull up much except for a 2006 financial report that said one of the guys on the board (Earl Evans) previously held a senior position with Hartleys. Perhaps holding a former senior position with Hartleys might give VIL a foot in for some coverage? 

This is entirely speculation though, make sure you DYOR.


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## BESBS Player (23 November 2009)

Nice start to the week with VIL pushing 3.5c this morning.

I'll check that source about Hartleys. Apologies if I am wrong...I'll check it out.



Holding VIL at 2.5c


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## stretchie (23 November 2009)

Very nice move this morning (and it bodes well for the week!), happy to continue holding at 2.8c after selling down half on Friday at 3.4c.


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## BESBS Player (25 November 2009)

Good move, Stretchie.

I hold most of my VIL but also have GGP as well.
Next leg up should be the announcement of drilling!


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## stretchie (27 November 2009)

I took my money off the table today with VIL. Trying to protect my capital and ended up with a reasonable annualised gain, average buy 2.65c, average sell 3.15c. Not bad for a week.

We should have a BESBS alert thread.. 

The catastrophes I was talking about earlier on appear to be rearing their ugly head. The whole Dubai World thing will likely shake the foundations of European banking and might knock on to the US financial system again. For me I'm happy to preserve capital by taking riskier money off the table while I see how things unfold in the next week or two.

Good luck with the drilling, will be keeping an eye on this one still, it looks like a promising play if successful.


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## skyQuake (27 November 2009)

stretchie said:


> I took my money off the table today with VIL. Trying to protect my capital and ended up with a reasonable annualised gain, average buy 2.65c, average sell 3.15c. Not bad for a week.
> 
> We should have a BESBS alert thread..
> 
> Good luck with the drilling, will be keeping an eye on this one still, it looks like a promising play if successful.




The gains are fantastic but so are the fades. While tuesdays reversal was obvious in hindsight I remember being pretty damn bullish when it opened at 3.9 lol


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## BESBS Player (30 November 2009)

Sold out late last week at 3.2c.

Have some exposure to upcoming project through GGP so decided to sell VIL. Nothing wrong with VIL, simply risk management...
Good luck to all holders.

Bought 2.5c
Sold 3.2c
Profit: 25% approx


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## nomore4s (30 November 2009)

BESBS Player said:


> Sold out late last week at 3.2c.
> 
> Have some exposure to upcoming project through GGP so decided to sell VIL. Nothing wrong with VIL, simply risk management...
> Good luck to all holders.
> ...




Interested in why you would sell out of the stock moving upwards and keep the stock moving down?

From a pure TA view VIL looks like it might have a chance to go higher from here with volume drying up on the retrace. Although it is now in a trading halt for Capital raising.


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## sjx (13 December 2009)

Should be an interesting week ahead for VIL.. We've seen some serious institutional selling of late, which has seriously hit the SP...

With drilling announced in what was such a positive announcment, I would have expected VIL to be in much higher place right now (maybe the drilling was factored into the price already? - I doubt this though)..

Any opinions/thoughts on what we can expect over the next few weeks? I'd love to top up.. but my employer has a two week securities holding period.. which means I'd have to wait two more weeks before I would be able to sell - No thanks!!!


Regards


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## maxmac (19 December 2009)

Hi SJX,

If you're still in it's time to sit and wait. If it's good it should be very good.

Cheers
Maxmac


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## Donga (19 December 2009)

maxmac said:


> Hi SJX,
> 
> If you're still in it's time to sit and wait. If it's good it should be very good.
> 
> ...




Agree, the market has not been at all responsive to announcements lately, e.g. ROG, BCN, JPR, OVR, RNG to name a few. I've bought modest holdings in VILO and GGPO and willing to lose, particularly most of VILO value if they have a duster. If it's good, I'll be expecting a grand treat early in the New Year.


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## Putty7 (21 December 2009)

> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at Fausse Point is presently at a depth 6,840 ft and drilling ahead. The well spudded on Saturday 5 December 2009. The well is expected to take another 5 to 7 days to reach its targeted depth of 9,500 ft.




Starting to get interesting for VIL, should be in the target zone soon, fingers crossed it will be a good result, SP currently at .022c, value if they hit is around .10cps to VIL.



> The prospect is located on the flank of a producing salt dome where two high quality targets have been identified. The primary target is shallow oil (7,000 - 8,000 ft) and deeper secondary target is gas (7,500 - 9,000 ft). Total dry hole cost to drill the initial well is approximately US$1 million.


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## Putty7 (21 December 2009)

Putty7 said:


> Starting to get interesting for VIL, should be in the target zone soon, fingers crossed it will be a good result, SP currently at .022c, value if they hit is around .10cps to VIL.




Value of target to VIL should read .25cps at 50 percent of JV, value to GGP is .10cps at 20 percent of JV


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## Putty7 (23 December 2009)

> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at Fausse Point is presently at a depth of 7,150 ft and drilling ahead.
> 
> The well has recorded a gas show at around 7,000 ft. The well circulated gas cut mud and the mud weight was increased after a 6,800 unit gas show was recorded in a secondary target interval. The two primary targets have yet to be reached.
> 
> ...




Encouraging sign with a gas show so early in the drilling before the two designated targets have been reached, just going on the data supplied by EGO on the gas units they encountered in their latest drill it looks to be a reasonable show at 6800 gas units, I am not a Geo so do your own research


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## condog (23 December 2009)

Putty7 said:


> Value of target to VIL should read .25cps at 50 percent of JV, value to GGP is .10cps at 20 percent of JV




Has anyone cross checked these numbers to verify them, is this in the GGP report

Where and how did you calculate this???


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## Putty7 (23 December 2009)

The figures come from the VIL asx announcement dated 18 December in reference to Fausse Point and relate directly to VIL


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## condog (23 December 2009)

Putty7 said:


> The figures come from the VIL asx announcement dated 18 December in reference to Fausse Point and relate directly to VIL




Ta - yeh found it

Its an all or nothing play isnt it.... very little if it fails and good upside with success 25-40c per share on a 0.025c share

I banged a small amount on it in case.......... encouraging early signs...I usually dont touch them in this situation, but given the early finds this one looked worth the risk..


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## Putty7 (23 December 2009)

condog said:


> Ta - yeh found it
> 
> Its an all or nothing play isnt it.... very little if it fails and good upside with success 25-40c per share on a 0.025c share
> 
> I banged a small amount on it in case.......... encouraging early signs...I usually dont touch them in this situation, but given the early finds this one looked worth the risk..




Yeah I have been following them since BESBS player was poking around them, figured at around .02c there was a lot of upside, the fact that some gas is there early gives it a bit more cred, if they do manage to hit something substantial it should have a good run.


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## Putty7 (29 December 2009)

> *CONFIRMATION OF OIL & GAS AT FAUSSE POINT*
> 
> Verus Investments Ltd (“Verus”) is pleased to advise that the TGR Land Co. Inc #1 Well at the Fausse Point oil and gas project in Louisiana, has intersected good hydrocarbon shows over several intervals whilst drilling to the current drilled depth of 7,695ft.
> 
> ...




Announcement concerning Fausse point out this morning, it is all looking pretty good so far and SP looks set to go up on open (at time of writing).


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## condog (29 December 2009)

IMHO this announcment seems very good, given that they are casing the bore..... they are still waiting for data analysis results in 3-4 days, but given they are caseing the hole to 7500ft I made the assumption thats a hell of an expense to go to if you have no certainty of the outcome....

I also made an assumption and its only an opinion with no fact to substantiate...... but VIL in their investor briefing in Oct estimated a significant fause point find was worth 20cps to 50cps int their report.... Im not sure what time frame that is over...... so i made the assumption that if they are casing the bore then its a find worth casing for production......obviously more testing and 1500ft of drilling still to go, but at 700ft they are confident enough that they cased so it my (stupid or otherwise ) assumption is it may look like it could be worth up to the bottom range of the estimates for them to go ahead and case....

In that case it looked to me like serious upside potential so I bought a huge parcel this morning and then was very pleased to see it had gone up substantially following my purchase....wont be selling on short gain...waiting for a hopefully substantiall announcment in 3-4 days or 10 days time......  

To me it was a decision of small loss verses possible huge upside....  a risk I can afford to and am willing to take....

This is not an attempt to ramp the share price...I personally dont care whether you buy or ignore.....do your own research, its all opinion and thoughts .......but thats my 2c worth....


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## condog (30 December 2009)

Hey Putty7 and other holders of VIL you must be extatic with the gains yesterday of 52% for the day......

I know its tempting to sell and capitilize the gain, but I am hanging in for what I believe is  possible and probable big announcment.....

If it runs again over the next few days I may buy some  options just to hedge some of the gains......

Whats your plans / comments thoughts on your strategies for VIL


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## condog (30 December 2009)

The traders are into it big time yesterday and today.... a bit choppy with some small profit takers by the looks of it....

130Million shares worth average 3.8c traded yesterday = approx $5M worth of trading in a company which up until yesterday had a market cap of approx 13Million..... then another 60Million plus traded this morning in the first 2 hours

Still very good buy volumes relative to sells so upward pressure till Thursday or Fridays data anlysis results....

Im up somewhere between 8K - 12K for the week just on this stock , so cannot wait till the next two announcments which is the data release on thu or fri and then around 6-7 days later they should be reaching terminal depth of 9500ft. There should be an initial announcment about pressures or mud / snadstone logs but the electronic data may take another 3-4 days to confirm the exact pressures and depths. 

All in all some very interesting and volatile times for VIL and its share holders / traders in the next two weeks.... enjoy  the ride omegos and hoe to hear good news on the other side ay...


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## Putty7 (30 December 2009)

condog said:


> The traders are into it big time yesterday and today.... a bit choppy with some small profit takers by the looks of it....
> 
> 130Million shares worth average 3.8c traded yesterday = approx $5M worth of trading in a company which up until yesterday had a market cap of approx 13Million..... then another 60Million plus traded this morning in the first 2 hours
> 
> ...




There's been a few scalpers in this one for a while, yesterday on open especially but it settled down after a while, Im assuming a bit of scalping still going on after the quick jump up and maybe some profit taking but the SP seems to be holding its own with buyers happy to go in at .035c, the biggest plus it has going for it is the timing, even if they take another 9 days to complete the drill most of the big instos should still be out of the market and it should get a relatively unmanipulated run assuming things go well. If they hit gas in the primary zone and we get some good results on the secondaries which they should be doing at the moment, it bodes well for the SP but I think it will be 2010 before the first results come out. If it can stay steady for today and tomorrow it should have a good spring board if the next announcement is good. Just my opinions DYOR


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## Putty7 (31 December 2009)

> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at Fausse Point is presently at a depth of 7,695 ft. Casing has been successfully run and cemented in place to depth drilled. After a satisfactory pressure test of the casing and shoe, we expect to be drilling ahead to our next target on Thursday, 31 December, North American time.
> 
> The well spudded on Saturday 5 December 2009. The well is expected to take a further 8 days to reach its targeted depth of 9,000 ft.




Sounds like they will be back into it tonight, hopefully Monday or Tuesday will have an announcement with some volumes on the secondary target and if they encounter gas in the next 3 or 4 days as they drill into the primary maybe something to be announced there to, purely speculation on my behalf but to run production casing I assume they have or suspect they have commercial volumes in the secondary target, would be nice to see some actual figures next week to confirm this.


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## condog (1 January 2010)

Disclaimer - all opinion - do your own research and seek expert advice. I own this stock and have a vested interest in its price movment. 


Putty7 said:


> Sounds like they will be back into it tonight, hopefully Monday or Tuesday will have an announcement with some volumes on the secondary target and if they encounter gas in the next 3 or 4 days as they drill into the primary maybe something to be announced there



Yeh so far they are very fast so Id be expecting it Monday Late Morning. Im not sure whether its production intended casing or drilling required casing....I have an obvious opinion, but theres no eveidence either way yet...


> due to continuing elevated gas levels in the wellbore the joint venture has undertaken an electric logging operation and prepared the well for setting intermediate casing prior to drilling ahead to the primary objective



 This hopefully is because the secondary target is big enough for production in itslef......it may however be due to the high pressures to stop a blow out.


> identified some hydrocarbons in the Cris 47



Very non-commital...probably indicative, but trying to avoid an ASX speeding fine...


> While logging operations and core data have indications of hydrocarbons, the significance cannot be determined until a full analysis is completed



Again probaly indicative but trying to avoid a speeding fine...as required by asx....they cant go saying the found comercially viable quantities unless they have hard data evidence to back it up....

But the huge question remains why would they case a non viable hole to 7000ft........   Some wells CWD but these guys dont to the best of my knowledge.... I can only assume the results to them where signiificantly indicative they thought it was worth casing....

In any case if pressure was the problem thats generally a hugely positive sign....

If mud was the problem thats awful, but they havent stated mud as the problem, they stated pressure as the problem...they have spoken about oil soked mud deposits though...

So agian - all fingers and toes crossed for Mon or Tue data resultd for the secondary target, and everything crossed for the primary target a few days later.
Disclaimer - all opinion - do your own research and seek expert advice. I own this stock and have a vested interest in its price movment.


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## condog (4 January 2010)

*2nd Gas Show at 8010 ft*

Second gas show

The well has recorded its second significant gas show at around 8,010 ft. The well circulated high levels of gas cut mud and the mud weight has been increased on several occasions after 4,000 to 6,000 unit gas shows were recorded in what appears to be the initial sections of the primary target interval.

Very  promissing indeed... if this is infact the beginning of the primary target and it extends to antiicipated depths , this could be a hugely siginificant find for such a small company...

expect proper data in 3-4 days


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## condog (5 January 2010)

Still waiting on electronic data from secondary target....

Yesterdays announcment was in relation to the 2nd strike at 8010fit which is possible the inital are of the primary target....

They did however hint accidently or otherwise that this one was of 4000-6000 units and it was the second significant strike..... possibly indicating the first strike was significant in volume....  assuming the first strike was 4000 units thats on my rough calcs worth arround $3-5M...

They also indicated the drilling has slowed significantly due to having to wieght the drill heavily with mud slurry to contain pressure....this in its self could/should possibly be  massively positive news......

I suspect they are now waiting to hit the primary target in around 48 hours from now....it could be slower if prssure is too great........they do however owe us an oversddue promissed disclosure on the electronic data logs from the secondary target....

I have contacted both VIL and GGP via email to ask that they urgently release data on the secondary target if they have it.....bear in mind Perth is 3 hours behind us so they possibly wont even recieve that email till around 12 miidday....and thats if they have the data or choose to act / read it....


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## Donga (5 January 2010)

condog said:


> I suspect they are now waiting to hit the primary target in around 48 hours from now....it could be slower if prssure is too great........they do however owe us an oversddue promissed disclosure on the electronic data logs from the secondary target....
> 
> I have contacted both VIL and GGP via email to ask that they urgently release data on the secondary target if they have it.....bear in mind Perth is 3 hours behind us so they possibly wont even recieve that email till around 12 miidday....and thats if they have the data or choose to act / read it....




Many thanks for sharing this condog and it does look promising. Hope they either answer your email tomorrow or go into trading halt


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## Putty7 (5 January 2010)

Personally I am not worried over the SP and it's carry on, yes it is still a speccy with a bit of hype but it's had no bad news so it is more likely traders executing their own plans with regards to profits or accumulation, the data will be released when it or they are ready, the flow tests will confirm what they have, hopefully it will be good news for holders.

 Just a matter of waiting unfortunately and in that time the SP will be played with.


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## condog (6 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> Personally I am not worried over the SP and it's carry on, yes it is still a speccy with a bit of hype but it's had no bad news so it is more likely traders executing their own plans with regards to profits or accumulation, the data will be released when it or they are ready, the flow tests will confirm what they have, hopefully it will be good news for holders.
> 
> Just a matter of waiting unfortunately and in that time the SP will be played with.




Yeh the choppy sp doesnt worry me as Iver kept raising holdings each correction....

Putty the news is whats significant too me too which is why Im keen for full and very prompt disclosure....

What are your or anyone elses calcs on what the finds may be worth .....
Ive got each 1MMBO at $50/BO net calc'd at 7c per share and  (VIL 50%)
each 1BCFG at roughly $2M net calc'd at 1/2c per share..... (VIL 50%)
Im anticipating further drilling to calculate size of resource if a find is positive, which early indications are encouragingly pointing in this direction....

But an inital resource estimate of say 1.5MMBO may see an approx 10c sp jump  (VIL 50%) plus the gas of maybe a cent to a few cents.... Thats my guestimate......its only a guestimate so DYOR Seek expert advice.....its all speculation at this stage...

With all the positive finds along the entire other side of the dome its extremely difficult to fathom that in this zone, (which is large) a decnet find indicative of the other side will not be located...
The average find on the entire other side is 2.1MMOB per zone and each zone is approz 1/3 the size of the VIL/GGP zone......using that as an assumption it could be possible to find around 6MMBO up to 12MMBO......Do not forget though that one entire zone was completely dry....this zone was approx 1/2 the size of the VIL/ GGP zone....on that basis it may only contain 3.15 MMBO.....

Yeh yeh I know this is presumptuous ect blah blah .....but its what I do to get an estimate when making a speculative move on a stock like this...... using this analysis I have VIL in my calcs as

Worst case = initial small loss to maybe 2.8c or so on bad news
My speculative most likely outcome case 3MMBO may = 20c sp increase (VIL 50%)
Best case outcome may = 12MMBO with possible $0.75 max share price  (VIL 50%)
This is purely speculative calcs....they have not been cross checked and are not to be relied on for anything othern then pure entertainment value....


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## rabbit59 (6 January 2010)

condog said:


> What are your or anyone elses calcs on what the finds may be worth .....
> Ive got each 1MMBO at $50/BO net calc'd at 7c per share and  (VIL 50%)
> each 1BCFG at roughly $2M net calc'd at 1/2c per share..... (VIL 50%)
> Im anticipating further drilling to calculate size of resource if a find is positive, which early indications are encouragingly pointing in this direction....
> ...




I am intrigued by your quesstimates, they are roughly around what i am buying into..and am hoping for...i hope for our sake its the latter which was ur 75c p/sp estimate 

Keep us posted on your email and when you hear back, id be very curious to hear what they say

Cheers again for your words....


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## Putty7 (6 January 2010)

Topped up at .035c this morning, it may fall further if an announcement isn't made this week but figure with the hydrocarbon indications already found it should be enough safe at that price. As to where the SP could end up I could speculate and run calculations forever but the market will decide, I myself would be stoked to see .10c but I might be dreaming


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## rabbit59 (6 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> Topped up at .035c this morning, it may fall further if an announcement isn't made this week but figure with the hydrocarbon indications already found it should be enough safe at that price. As to where the SP could end up I could speculate and run calculations forever but the market will decide, I myself would be stoked to see .10c but I might be dreaming




I also took the top up otion at .035c... i dont think you're dreaming putty7, i think there is highly likely chance that the sp may top .10c..but you are correct, the market will decide....I would hope to see an announcement tomorrow... all going well, I will hope its a good one at that....


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## Putty7 (6 January 2010)

> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise that the TGR Land Co. Inc #1 well at the Fausse Point oil and gas project in Louisiana had reached a depth of 8,117 ft before drilling was halted temporarily due to very high levels of gas in the drilling mud.
> 
> Electric logging and side wall cores have now been performed over the current open hole section and analysis of the data is underway to determine potential pay in the intervals where gas shows were encountered. The
> deepest side wall core taken had smearing of 49 gravity API oil.
> ...




Interesting announcement just out, it will be interesting to see how the SP reacts but it does sound promising as far as the gas is concerned.


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## condog (6 January 2010)

One would be more inclined to say extremely promising in terms of gas and oil present...in unknown quantity still to be deemed commercial or not...

49 gravity is slightly outside premium gravity of 40-45, but still very encouraging given 900ft or so to go....in primasry target range....

SP s beginning to react now with huge volumes in the last 10min or so

I have almost 4 milllion shares now........scary stuff, but i truly believe this is below value already on the gas news and massively below value if the oil proves commercial...th gas alone now one would presume is viable and possibl worth 1c to severtal cents per share.....opinion only


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## condog (6 January 2010)

Hey Putty7 and rabbits59 id be extremely dissapointed if it only hit 10c ....sure ide make good money, but I guestimate its currenlty oversold on some choppy stupidity.....traders for the life of me I cant see why youd be stupid enough to off load 3 or 4 times for maybe 0.1 of a cent or may bee 0.3 of a cent when the potential upside within 3-8 days is possiblity to be many cents and maybe up to 40c+ per share if its a major oil and gas strike....

Hmmm defies all logic.....I could have traded about 5 times for $10,000 this morning on a 1Million parcel but its a ptence compared to the potential upside within a few days so why take the risk of missing out on the big gains......

Anyway I am enjoying a bit of volatility as it gave me the opportunity to keep raising my stkaes at cheaper prices......

Good luck Putty and rabbits and if it skyrockets I will shout you a few beers for the chat...


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## rabbit59 (6 January 2010)

condog said:


> Good luck Putty and rabbits and if it skyrockets I will shout you a few beers for the chat...




haha! i look forward to it condog!I completely agree with what you are saying, ive been keeping an eye on both VIL and GGP for some time, and have high hopes and see big FACTS for both these miners... i hope its a big gain...for both our sakes


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## GaryS (6 January 2010)

I also hold this stock and am looking forward to good news later in the week or maybe early next week. Hoping for a little bit of weakness tomorrow so I can top up.

Actually would like to see no news until next week as the traders may knock the SP down. 

Enjoying all views that have been posted.


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## condog (6 January 2010)

IMO todays news possibly  indicates several things......its all opinion so DYOR and seek expert advice...do not act on this...

1. IMO There will likely be commercial volumes of gas and oil is now more then  a 50% proability in my opinion
2. IMO current share price is well under value and represents a significant disount to the gas already indicated....when compared to other small explorers
3. IMO drilling will be slow taking 6-8 days and will likely halt for another casing to be placed... at that depth, with so many indications its likely to be viable its not worth a blow out risk when your so close to the primary target, especially when you already have casing to 7000ft....nad look likely to need it working and undamaged...
4. IMO data on the secondary target has still not been released which is very  wierd, especially given they have referred several times to it being a significant find....in subsequent comments about the primary target...the only explanation I have is they feel they have done so by eluding to a significnat find....but promised eltrical data has not yet been delivered....thats a negative...albeit a small one...
5. IMO with 2 announcments eluding to significant gas in the secondary target and one eluding to significant gas in the primary target and casing placed to 7000ft plus , as well as the high gas pressure they are currentlky encounterring ......it is likely to easily be commercial for at least a sizeable gas find and that is not built into current price....this stock was above 3c when drilling commenced and had been to 4c in the past with no real news...so at 3.6c its rediculously cheap given all the positive gas indicators and oil smears......just on the gas alone it should be up at least 1/2 a cent today....by my amatuer calcs... pushing it around 0.04 to 0.045 -(opinion only)
6. IMO Irrespective of gas volumes they seem significant enough to provide cash flow for further drilling and exploration of the area...which is a huge positive for both GGP and VIL
 I certainly hope there is some correction and volatility this week as we approach the critical announcment, but I doubt it. The volumes indicate huge interest in a tiny stock. In fact of all the stock I watch its been the leaqder all week and the only one actually doing anything....so with that level of interest and volumes on sucvh a tiny company its upward pressure will likely be sustained some what....

I certainly am hoping for some more  buying opportunities on the southside of 0.035, that will be tough going but one can only live in hope and optimism....would like to grab another few million if the price is low enough...

Good luck to all.....

Remember all the disclaimer and opinion etc...seek expert advice and definitely dont act on this....


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## rabbit59 (8 January 2010)

vil in trading halt, new announcement we have been waiting for??? I hope its one for the better.......


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## Putty7 (8 January 2010)

> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at Fausse Point is presently at a depth of 8,450 ft and drilling ahead.
> 
> The well has recorded its *third significant gas interval starting at 8,175 ft and continuing through 8,400 ft*.
> 
> ...




Very good news this morning for VIL and GGP, some wireline data etc next week and then flow rates should put some positive light on the SP. The next question for me is who is holding the options and who wants to see them executed and who doesn't, this might be the difference between getting where I want it to go or the SP being held back, just my opinions, DYOR


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## condog (8 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> Very good news this morning for VIL and GGP, some wireline data etc next week and then flow rates should put some positive light on the SP. The next question for me is who is holding the options and who wants to see them executed and who doesn't, this might be the difference between getting where I want it to go or the SP being held back, just my opinions, DYOR




Hey Putty et al
Very very good news more gas and very significant...no statement of commerial contnet made, but read between the lines...huge pressures and a 225 ft gas intersection so far.....

Plus oil present.....will have to await but this is hugely positive....even if oils not in this hole its likely to be very nearby......the gas should more then make this hole very commercial and easily pay for significant further exploration.....

Great news that VIL has now commanded some serious market attention with massive volumes, news headlines and its now bigger then GGP, due to this find....

All in all Im absolutely stoked....the market will take some time to analyse these results and will want further news and figures, but ive made my decision which way its heading in the next few days and weeks....


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## Putty7 (8 January 2010)

Was wondering where you were today Condog, thought you might have passed out in your chair or something on the news lol.

I think commercial gas is more than speculative now (maybe oil as well but that will all be confirmed or denied over the next few weeks), the fact that GGP announcements are being used only now and not modified (hyped up) and re-released by VIL is a good sign, I must admit that while no gas or oil volumes are present, the length of the column they drilled through was surprising and very encouraging to say the least. 

Not sure where the SP will finish today, with drilling expected to finish over the weekend and maybe more results before TD, .045c is feasible I would think given maybe another announcement Monday, but thats all speculation on my behalf. 

The imortant thing now is to preserve the integrity of the hole which they seem to be managing well, I will be a happy little camper when they finish and it is logged and cased, the rest is then up to the results and the market.

Holding at .027c


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## stretchie (8 January 2010)

Hey all

After getting out of my VIL holding a few weeks ago after the initial spike as a BESBS play, I bought back into some VILO options today with some speculative money. I like that there have been 3 gas shows already and this mornings looks more promising than the other two. A large column doesn't necessarily mean a commercial quantity, but the chance of this thing going ballistic is too great for me to pass up a punt. Held 100k of the VILO prior to today at 0.8c but topped that up to 350k @ 1c on the announcement. 

Was amazed at the chatter on other forums as well, the volume and turnover today was unprecedented for this stock I think? 210 million shares?! That's nearly a third of those on issue!!

I think another announcement may be forthcoming on Monday/Tuesday and I wanted to be long this stock for any potential good news.


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## condog (8 January 2010)

stretchie said:


> Hey all
> 
> After getting out of my VIL holding a few weeks ago after the initial spike as a BESBS play, I bought back into some VILO options today with some speculative money. I like that there have been 3 gas shows already and this mornings looks more promising than the other two. A large column doesn't necessarily mean a commercial quantity, but the chance of this thing going ballistic is too great for me to pass up a punt. Held 100k of the VILO prior to today at 0.8c but topped that up to 350k @ 1c on the announcement.
> 
> ...




You are right to say a deep strike is not necesarily commercial...no argument, but a deep strike combined with huge known reserves in almost the eniterity of the salt dome surrounds is certainly for me in my opinion only, good reason for excityement.......

They traded 169Million which is over half of all shares on offer....although when watching it there was a lot of cyclical turnover

They announcerd 1-2 days...and they will keep drilling over the weekend for sure as its only friday when they wake up so they will drill sat and we should have a massive announcment one way or another on monday.....

theres been a lot of dots to join so far, they have deliberately been very elusive ....but joining the dots the picture looks extremely promising.....I bet they anounce they are going to case it for prodcution.....but thats only an opinion....so dont act on it....

What Im really wainting for is the size estimates and id say they will not be forthcoming for a few days.....

Judhing by this afternoons trade with everyone jumping into it for the weekend rather then out of it, im feeling confident that the general consensus is the same as mine.....

Its been a good week for me on VIL, making $8000 on trades and up $28,000 on paper just on VIL at .045 close on fri.....loving it, but i seriously think (opinion only ) that this week will seem insignificant sooner or later on this one......

Yes its risky, but honestly all decisions have consequences and risk.....the more research you do and the more knowledge you have the more you can minimise the upside risk and maximise the downside risk....

Enjoy the ride omegos.......PS Putty and rabbits your beer is looking real safe for now ay.....


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## condog (8 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> Was wondering where you were today Condog, thought you might have passed out in your chair or something on the news lol.
> 
> I think commercial gas is more than speculative now (maybe oil as well but that will all be confirmed or denied over the next few weeks), the fact that GGP announcements are being used only now and not modified (hyped up) and re-released by VIL is a good sign, I must admit that while no gas or oil volumes are present, the length of the column they drilled through was surprising and very encouraging to say the least.
> 
> ...




Yeh i been busy doing a bit of trading on TRF ROL and VIL plus offloading a heap of stagnant stocke to raise my stakes in some real movers........

Yeh i own so much now that either way, my heart will go into full cardiac arrest......... one way i will be singing with joy and the other i will be hitting the sell button like theres no tommorrow.....

But seriously this is an aboslute future changer for me......on this one stock alone retirement is waiving its pretty head......Im gunna look so stupid or have to wait a while if they plug and abandon the well.....but seriously i give that about a 5% or less chance now.....

Managments announcements have been severely misleading if this is not significant enough to be commercial.....

Depending on that lateral dimensions of the primary gas cavity its likely to be worth significant valkue to the company....if they can make that commercially viable...this thing will rocket....the market places a huge premium on these minor ecxplorers once they can becomeproducres, then  cash flow sustainable / neutral/ then positive.... it seems to leap with each step significantly more then one would envisage.....

What im getting at here is if the market seems to think the profit in that gas is worth say 3c per share to the company the sp seems to jump 6-9 cents .....then once they reach a point of being almost or cash flow neutral they suddenly jump again....thats a bit speculative now, but by this time next week , I hope you or me will be quoting this post....and saying yeh ****, I know what you mean,....

By that stage I hope to be up $100K to $500K........any hope killers can ...........off so dont bother telling me im too excited on this one....


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## GaryS (8 January 2010)

I'm getting .........excited on this one also. Hold 600 000 @ low numbers.

Condog, do you still feel your calcs below are still close to the mark.

Quote

Worst case = initial small loss to maybe 2.8c or so on bad news
My speculative most likely outcome case 3MMBO may = 20c sp increase (VIL 50%)
Best case outcome may = 12MMBO with possible $0.75 max share price (VIL 50%)
This is purely speculative calcs....they have not been cross checked and are not to be relied on for anything othern then pure entertainment value....

 I may not able to retire, but I will be able to pay off my house.

May buy more early next week if there is any signs of weakness


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## sjx (8 January 2010)

Still holding this one.. Thank god I didn't cut my losses, cause I was getting worried at those 1.8c levels.. I have to admit.. Was not going to get trounced by the institutional selling..

God I love these results. This gas show is the best yet.. if just one of these gas shows is commercially viable, we will see 6c imo.. and there are THREE gas shows.. and the very strong possibility of oil!!

I really think we will see TEN before the end of this month.. and beyond that, if all goes to plan 25 cents will come before the VILO expiry in my opinion.. (still don't have the balls to trade VILO though.. not long to exp..,) 75c is pretty wild but.. lol. i would be a multi-squil if we see 75c!

Enjoying reading some of analysis's. Not fully up to date in my oil & gas play knowledge so it helps a lot.

Don't think we will see confirmation of on Monday, but either Tuesday or more likely Wednesday.



Good luck to all.


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## Mrb1g (8 January 2010)

Holding at 3.1c.

Also enjoying the ride. Not standing to benefit as much as others, but I'll still have enough to cover my HECS fees once I start Uni and more ontop to reinvest.

I've been following this thread for a while now, really valued reading views from experienced traders such as Condog and Putty, hoping to learn something off such posters.


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## condog (8 January 2010)

GaryS said:


> I'm getting .........excited on this one also. Hold 600 000 @ low numbers.
> 
> Condog, do you still feel your calcs below are still close to the mark.
> 
> ...




The markets a strange beast and it has a habit of proving predictions wrong..... but my best estimates, i think the worst case scenario is possible better for now as at least we all and VIL know there is definitely significant gas at multiple levels....oil is presnt, although quantities are unknown and no substantial find yet....commercial viability or otherwise is yet to be announced

So in short I think the worst case scenario has imporved....the most likely and best case scenario are probably not quiet as good just yet....

I personally believe and this isd only opinion....so DYOR SeekEX.P.Advice etc.....that the 4.5 cent share price is now well and truly justified, in fact with the finds announced today I was surpirsed it didnt hit 6c or more....and I think as some analysits and brokers begin to absorb and crunch some numbers we will see abit more excitment.....

My reason for thinking so is this company has experienced teams drilling at thier cost, they have a 50% interest in a known oil and gas producing zone and they have a large tenement capable of producing not only substantial revenue, but also likely to given all the very strong gas indicators and oils smears to date....

Even if this whole is only good for gas, it should provide more then adequate revenue to fast track and extensive drilling program and possibley buy significantly more lease areas....

On current news I would roughly estimate iot should be 6-8c and then if the news next week indicates gas production it might rise further to say 10c depending on volumes....

With gas an commercially viable oil in this hole it will go up significantly obviously dependent on volume....

If it comes up dry and gas is not economically viable I expect a correction....but with all these positve signs a big result would still be expected soon.....so 4- 6c or so should be easily sustainable, even with no more positve news....

I really mean this......do not make your decisions on my optimism....its my opinion and my optimism and Im not a broker, oil tycoon or analyst....Im a mug punter who does well......but its your money, your risk and your decisions that will determine your fate......


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## Tommo_Aus (9 January 2010)

I've been looking into VIL recently, some rather impressive trading on high volumes. I don't currently hold but I'm more into the fundamentals rather than technical so I'm deciding whether to enter next week. On one hand there's a good chance of impressive news next week but on the other hand I can't help but think I've missed the boat. Hopefully the strengthening SP isn't from traders jumping the gun on commercially viable oil being present - in other words reaching its peak SP.

Either way I'll be doing some research this weekend while I try not to melt, with any luck there may be a number of discounted shares on Monday being sold by the nervous ones.


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## Putty7 (9 January 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Holding at 3.1c.
> 
> Also enjoying the ride. Not standing to benefit as much as others, but I'll still have enough to cover my HECS fees once I start Uni and more ontop to reinvest.
> 
> I've been following this thread for a while now, really valued reading views from experienced traders such as Condog and Putty, hoping to learn something off such posters.




I only started full time trading this financial year so take any of my predictions with a grain of salt, have followed the market for a few years but this site and some its members have opened my eyes to some of the ins and outs and I have learnt a lot from it and some of the threads, especially spotting some of the pitfalls that may hinder some penny dreadfuls that were oblivious to me.

To the best of my knowledge the options expire soon, if the SP hits .10c and they are executed it will be as good as doing a cap raising at a premium price as opposed to the sneaky little mates rates ones that pop up over the smaller shares and dillute a stock for little gain, they did a cap raising not long ago and I think they should have enough to do the next hole in the program (maybe 2), so either way the next hole should proceed unhindered.

The other thing I was thinking over was that VIL is an investment company, do they really want to stay a one trick pony or will they prove up the field and either farm a percentage out, or sell it off their percentage for a premium. 

If they are cashed up from the options it makes little difference as any opportunities that are near term that they are looking at like this one will be able to be paid for.

If my statement on the options and the cash input to the company are incorrect feel free to correct it.


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## condog (9 January 2010)

I say this with good intent and mean no ill by it.... But even the few new punters in here now watchingg and commenting on this stock are a good indication....

For if they have sat up and noticed it and its potential as well then thats indicative of what the brokers and adviser / fmanagers will having ticking through their heads and meetings aswell.....

The volumes and increases we saw this week will put this little baby on the screens and watchlists of quiet a few small cap investors .... and thats never a bad thing for shareholders.....

Putty your comments seem spot on the money re caps and investment co: ....but they wont need to farm out here yet , as they are the non working party with predominent interest, so id say they will enjoy the spoils till upside starts too look more exhausted..... 

Verus will only pull money if they can find a better investment to put money in.... and right now thats not on the cards...

By the way putty you beat me to picking VIL in the jan stock picking comp.... and i offered you 50c to take it off you.....but you never replied......how bout i make it a $1..........Id reckon right now youd be the leader or close and must be feeling pretty confident of being in the top few.....


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## condog (9 January 2010)

sjx said:


> Still holding this one.. Thank god I didn't cut my losses, cause I was getting worried at those 1.8c levels.. I have to admit.. Was not going to get trounced by the institutional selling..
> 
> God I love these results. This gas show is the best yet.. if just one of these gas shows is commercially viable, we will see 6c imo.. and there are THREE gas shows.. and the very strong possibility of oil!!
> 
> ...




Ok I got approx 4 M dhares in this , and at present my exit strategy is out with about 3M asap on acceptable prices if its no further good news.........

If its commerrically viable or oil is discovered I was thinking about ofloading some after it runs and buying come call options for future gains(possible writing some puts as well) or holding and buying some put options to safeguard my prices.... Has anyone else got an options play considered for taking / protecting profits or for riding further gains after or around your wanted sell points... I dont use a lot of options as havent had the time, but would be interested to know from a few more exp players in the options game...

PS: not VILO, just traditional options...


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## condog (9 January 2010)

Like my avatar - its the VIL tenement and entire sal dome tenement diagram...

The yellow at the bottom of the dome is the VIL tenement and the other colours are the other commercially viable tenements with current discoveries....

As you can see the VIL tenement is huge.....  so even if this well is only gas the entire tenement in a known region is extremely positive.....alternatively if the breadth of the primary target cavern is huge from a longitudinal point along the domes edge , volumes are ptoentially monstrous in proportion to the sp and market cap.....


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## Mrb1g (9 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> I only started full time trading this financial year so take any of my predictions with a grain of salt, have followed the market for a few years but this site and some its members have opened my eyes to some of the ins and outs and I have learnt a lot from it and some of the threads, especially spotting some of the pitfalls that may hinder some penny dreadfuls that were oblivious to me.
> 
> they did a cap raising not long ago and I think they should have enough to do the next hole in the program (maybe 2), so either way the next hole should proceed unhindered.




Still, you have far more experience with the intricacies than this 17 year old 

Considering what you've said, will you look at selling out should Verus hit say, 10c, based on this drilling alone? Or would you hold onto them in the hope that future holes could prove equally positive?


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## condog (9 January 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Still, you have far more experience with the intricacies than this 17 year old
> 
> Considering what you've said, will you look at selling out should Verus hit say, 10c, based on this drilling alone? Or would you hold onto them in the hope that future holes could prove equally positive?




I will be looking for a strategy to take profit but hold exposure..i will probably sell the shares and garb some options...not sure though if anyones writing them for VIL, its possible too small, but I will try a few brokers anyway...Personally Im after a 20.7 cent gain on each parcel I have so around the 23 to 25c mark and I will be extremely happy......In fact I will be on holidays - forever.....and thats not out of the question givne the great gains oon TRF and ROL in recent weeks..... this one has as much potential (possible only) upside as either of them...

On another note VIL gets another prime article mention in todays Australian



> The top-traded stock by volume was Verus Investments, with 214.55 million shares worth $9.26 million changing hands. Its shares jumped 0.6c, or 15.38 per cent, to 4.5c. Market turnover was two billion shares worth $3.24 billion, with 582 stocks up, 535 down and 320 unchanged.



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ie-bourse-higher/story-e6frg8zx-1225817483311 - disc....no responsibility by this duck or forum if you follow this external link.

Its nothing major but all helps


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## Putty7 (9 January 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Still, you have far more experience with the intricacies than this 17 year old
> 
> Considering what you've said, will you look at selling out should Verus hit say, 10c, based on this drilling alone? Or would you hold onto them in the hope that future holes could prove equally positive?




I don't know, shares sometimes do what you least expect them to do, .10c is just a rough level I set myself because it is where the options come into play and as with a cap raising it may set a solid floor under the share, I don't know if the first hole will be enough to get it to my first hurdle, but that is my opinion and a guess at best. If some of the bigger traders and instos want to see it go up it will, if they don't it won't, it will come down to buyer strength as there is no shortage of supply and the day traders are loving turning it over at the moment.

If the well is a success, the SP will reflect the in ground resource value and some speculation on the future until they get more wells online to take advantage of the resource. Don't get me wrong I am optimistic about this share and my money is where my mouth is, it just pays to focus on some of the negatives that could affect things so if they occur you are ready to act and then take the rest as a pleasant surprise when it happens.


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## Putty7 (9 January 2010)

Quoted from Condog 







> By the way putty you beat me to picking VIL in the jan stock picking comp.... and i offered you 50c to take it off you.....but you never replied......how bout i make it a $1..........Id reckon right now youd be the leader or close and must be feeling pretty confident of being in the top few.....




If the SP drops to 3.4c before the end of January I will give them to you for free lol


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## LarryL (9 January 2010)

Could anyone tell me exactly where Fausse Point Salt Dome is??

I have been trying to find it on Google earth without any luck


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## condog (9 January 2010)

"Could anyone tell me exactly where Fausse Point Salt Dome is??

I have been trying to find it on Google earth without any luck"

Its in Cameron parish -Louisiana


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## GaryS (10 January 2010)

If you go to the asx ann 17th Dec

http://www.verusinvestments.com.au/...IL GGP Fausse Point Drilling Ahead 171209.pdf

At the bottom of the second page is a google snap shot of the area.


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## IMSancho (10 January 2010)

The area that is shown in the maps from the announcements can be found here, you can see that the salt dome extends into the water and can make out some of the older rig infrastructure on the northern side.


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## condog (10 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> I don't know, shares sometimes do what you least expect them to do, .10c is just a rough level I set myself because it is where the options come into play and as with a cap raising it may set a solid floor under the share, I don't know if the first hole will be enough to get it to my first hurdle, but that is my opinion and a guess at best. If some of the bigger traders and instos want to see it go up it will, if they don't it won't, it will come down to buyer strength as there is no shortage of supply and the day traders are loving turning it over at the moment.
> 
> If the well is a success, the SP will reflect the in ground resource value and some speculation on the future until they get more wells online to take advantage of the resource. Don't get me wrong I am optimistic about this share and my money is where my mouth is, it just pays to focus on some of the negatives that could affect things so if they occur you are ready to act and then take the rest as a pleasant surprise when it happens.




3 good gas anouncements, problems drilling and your worrying......pffffttt Putty look at all the other data around the dome in the reports and average it out....every teneement thats found gas has also found commercially viable oil.....just cause its  not flowing to the surface doesnt mean it aint there.....and even if its not down this hole its IMO likely to be down a hole adjacent to these..... hydrocarbons are present , gas is present, they have the correct formations , in a producing zone.....

Im extremely confident on this one.....make sure you get your head in the right place or else your likely to sell on the first little price rise....and if you do that your likely to miss the big one if or when it comes....in any stock....


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## Putty7 (10 January 2010)

condog said:


> 3 good gas anouncements, problems drilling and your worrying......pffffttt Putty look at all the other data around the dome in the reports and average it out....every teneement thats found gas has also found commercially viable oil.....just cause its  not flowing to the surface doesnt mean it aint there.....and even if its not down this hole its IMO likely to be down a hole adjacent to these..... hydrocarbons are present , gas is present, they have the correct formations , in a producing zone.....
> 
> Im extremely confident on this one.....make sure you get your head in the right place or else your likely to sell on the first little price rise....and if you do that your likely to miss the big one if or when it comes....in any stock....




My head is in the right place and I am extremely confident, one novice giving advice to another I am not comfortable with lol, .10c is my first target figure, flow rates may be needed to get there though I would think, possibly an announcement to drill the 2nd well. I hope to be proven wrong.


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## condog (11 January 2010)

hi all , markets excited with prospects, some good strong buys up to 0.055 already and good volumes staring to appear to hopefully sustain it for the morning.....tempting isnt it  I could grab $75K profit for a fortnight this morning if volumes build...but im holding on....

I once had a profit, then away it flew..........   ahhhh the voices from the little men inside your head are cruel ay   LOL


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## sjx (11 January 2010)

It's just a waiting game now for the announcements.

The share price will do the talking.. The potential gains in the week ahead are pretty exciting. 

Good luck,


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## Tommo_Aus (11 January 2010)

Trading halt :/

Oh well, looking at the volume in pre_open I think I've missed my chance. Good luck to all holders


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## Putty7 (11 January 2010)

The trading halt bodes well for the announcement to follow considering what they have found to date, would be nice to see a bit more gas added to it or wireline logs with oil column lengths.


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## McCoy Pauley (11 January 2010)

Trading halt announced pending an announcement from VIL involving T.G.R. Land Company and the Fausse Point Project.

I was just about to pull the trigger on a BUY, as well.


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## condog (11 January 2010)

Great stuff trading halt.....possibly 2 full days

In my opinion - and its only an opinion so DYOR....this meaqns they have results either worht casing or worth electronic data testing that they want to release to the market and are not allowed to do so without data analysis to back up what they are saying.....

In my experience these halts generally come back with more potiive news....as if they where un happy with the hole and going to plug and abandon ready for a second hole they would have just announced. it.....

If it was just reliance on a meeting they only would have had a short halt....

IMO they are waiting on data, then a decision,  and thats an extremely positive news in my opinion....as it possibly  indicates that commercial viability is being tested / decided / or announced...

Putty et al, grab your popcorn, tie yourself to the chair and enjoy the ride while it lasts on Wed morning or sooner....  Ithis is only garbage talk, but I hope a helmet and oxygen bottle  is an essential peice of equipment.......just need to go to the old age home and borrow some O2 hopefully


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## Putty7 (11 January 2010)

condog said:


> Great stuff trading halt.....possibly 2 full days
> 
> In my opinion - and its only an opinion so DYOR....this meaqns they have results either worht casing or worth electronic data testing that they want to release to the market and are not allowed to do so without data analysis to back up what they are saying.....
> 
> ...





 I think it is all good, just a matter of waiting now, they have announced 3 finds, 1 of which was 75 metres with gas spikes through it, I have little doubt now that the gas is commercial, the oil in commercial volumes would be a bonus and the length of the columns from wireline data would go a long way to further proving that, up until now they have announced oil is there but without any backing up what so ever, flow rates will come later and give better over all assessment of course. Lets hope the SP does the right thing, good luck to all holders.


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## condog (11 January 2010)

Another interesting hypothetical scenario for your consideration, while we wait in bordom, chewing nails and wondering:

On friday morning ESDT they estimated 1-2days drilling... that means by sat arvo ESDT they stopped drilling... these guys are on shifts and would have worked sun on this ...

Pressure testing gas only takes a few hours...the data logs take 24 hours or less.... hmm but what takes 3 full days, could it be oil flow rates ???????? or is it just wire logging...... poking around those hopefully massive cavities...

Lets hope so, its a big hypothetical, but one wonders why two full days plus sunday was needed..... it would seem something more then gas pressures and cavern sizes.......  anyhows all will certainly be revealed before the thing starts trading again on Wed....

Got into another stock big time today that has probably more upside then this one once this probable  ????? find is priced in.....


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## sjx (11 January 2010)

Hi Condog,


Would you mind disclosing what stock it is that you got into today?



Regards,



..................


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## condog (11 January 2010)

sjx said:


> Hi Condog,
> 
> 
> Would you mind disclosing what stock it is that you got into today?
> ...




I will pm you as i want to get more holdings  before the masses find it and would like to use some VIL money to raise the stakes in a few days.......


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## Tommo_Aus (11 January 2010)

Everything all feels very secretive now 

Given the buyers stacking up and a trading halt until the announcement I'll most likely pass on VIL. Unfortunately I needed the weekend to review this stock which has resulted in me missing the boat. I've put the money into MSB instead... something I should've done ages ago!


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## condog (12 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Everything all feels very secretive now
> 
> Given the buyers stacking up and a trading halt until the announcement I'll most likely pass on VIL. Unfortunately I needed the weekend to review this stock which has resulted in me missing the boat. I've put the money into MSB instead... something I should've done ages ago!




Na tommo no secrets....just need to get more today then will PM you...

Sorry you missed the boat on VIL, but there are lots of others out there just like it with current highly likely and imminenet drilling results on copper, gold, oil, gas....in a day or 2 when VIL does its thing, i suggest we start a gneral chat thread on where to go next....and others we are in...

It may be worth placing a buy on it anyway as strange things happen when halts lift....you never know...but thats assuming all positive...so DYOR...

PM a few of they guys in here they are into some good other stuff.. and cant hijack this thread with them too much....All the best

On VIL theres a small chance halt may lift today so keep your eye on it....


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## Tommo_Aus (12 January 2010)

I'll still be keeping en eye on VIL but the odds are I'll give it a miss, but for those who hold the market depth sure looks interesting! Good luck for the week.


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## condog (12 January 2010)

*VIL about to retrade - great news*

A great announcment hidden in a heap of legal mumbo jumbo
One has to immediately ask one self

If its not what they where after why have they immediately purchased an adjoining 80 acres....


LMAO at these idiots currently selling for nips

keep watching as the idiot sellers dry up and the ones who just purchased begin to absorb the announcment and hold tight....


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## condog (12 January 2010)

> *The Board of Verus Investments Ltd (“Verus”) is delighted to announce that recent drilling of the
> TGR Land Co. Inc #1 Well at the Fausse Point oil and gas project in Louisiana has intersected the
> primary targeted deep gas play with very strong oil and gas indications.*
> 
> ...




And yet they are still selling, good more buying ops, just got to work out what to offload...  whats your thoughts


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## Tommo_Aus (12 January 2010)

Currently watching closely, looking for the SP to stabilise then I'll jump in. I might be able to get some for 4.4c!


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## Putty7 (12 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Currently watching closely, looking for the SP to stabilise then I'll jump in. I might be able to get some for 4.4c!




Yes you might Tommo, a lot of vermin still in there playing around and a nothing announcement really, just confirming what we knew already, 4 weeks until flow testing is completed but wireline data should be able to give column lengths before that.


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## Tommo_Aus (12 January 2010)

I'm currently first in line for 4.5c. Order is for 200,000 shares with 47,000 filled, SP is fluctuating between 4.5 & 4.7 and its desperately trying to push up but keeps getting knocked down by large sellers dropping a bucketfull. Good for me


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## skyQuake (12 January 2010)

Gap filled and now bouncing, good lucking with 4.5c
Bit of selling into 4.6 but its getting absorbed.


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## Tommo_Aus (12 January 2010)

Well I'm a happy camper now, my order @ 4.5c has been filled 

I was starting to get slightly edgy and almost completed the rest @ 4.6c, looks like the 4.5c shares have almost dried up. I'd budgeted for 4.6c when I was planning on buying in on Monday.


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## Putty7 (12 January 2010)

skyQuake said:


> Gap filled and now bouncing, good lucking with 4.5c
> Bit of selling into 4.6 but its getting absorbed.




Think you need to throw a bag of ratsack through this share Skyquake, GGP doing the same lol, no bad news at all but SP being sandbagged.


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## Mrb1g (12 January 2010)

Haha. Can't believe the SP is down to 4.2. Oh well, might as well take advantage of it and take up a few more shares.


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## rabbit59 (12 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> Think you need to throw a bag of ratsack through this share Skyquake, GGP doing the same lol, no bad news at all but SP being sandbagged.




Totally agree Putty, however all the more chance for me to fill up my holdings with some savings : so it is all good by me 

Good luck all in either GGP of VIL

Disc : i have holdings in both these companies


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## skyQuake (12 January 2010)

lol i threw a ratsack and then some at it when it decided to cr@p itself.
Hopefully that should be the bot for today.


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## condog (12 January 2010)

This crazyness should dicipate...as the morons trade out....

Too much volume this week filled us with all sorts of strange creatures and hence what we are seeing right now....shere craziness with price down on a hugely positive announcment.....but day traders have no patience, they cant wait 2-4 weeks for iron clad confirmation...they need the money for tommorrow......


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## Putty7 (12 January 2010)

skyQuake said:


> lol i threw a ratsack and then some at it when it decided to cr@p itself.
> Hopefully that should be the bot for today.




All going well the excitement and liquidity will go out of it soon and give it a chance to consolidate and move upwards over the next 3 or 4 weeks


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## malachii (12 January 2010)

I don't hold this stock (or GGP) but from a quick look at their charts I would say this is going to fall back into the mid to upper 3s at best.  It looks like a lot of "smart" money positioned themselves leading up to Christmas/New year in anticipation of the current announcements and is taking their profit now.  Personally I would hold back any buying decisions until late this week early next week to see where it was going to settle - you may find you pick it up 10-20% cheaper than now.

malachii

PS - I dont own this stock (or GGP) so take what I say with a giant bit of scepitism!!!


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## condog (12 January 2010)

Yeh its all very wierd.....

To me extremely positive but very wierd....

Management placed a 2 day halt.....usually this means a significant announcment.....and while Im reading a lot of hugely positive news into things managment eluded to but did not say.....many are clearly running for the hills....

IMO this is a signiificant positive indicator, but i understand why many are worrying.....  a 2 day halt for no totally necesary reason.....

Wake up guys stop hinting and say what youve found.....

Obviously GGP or VIL or both have a rediculously conservative team of lawyers who are to scared to quantify anything.....so for now just keep reading between the lines.....

Question for you to ponder:

*From todays announcment :*
Managment says " this is the best outcome Verus shareholders could possible have wished for" and they have completed negotiations for "exclusive access to the adjoining 80 acres"

Well if thats the case in thier Investors presentation they indicated the best case scenario was 40cents per share increase.......
On that basis 4.2 or 4.3 cents looks good to me....

Hmmm someones not telling the whole truth here..........are they sitting on a bigger announcment then they are telling us and why.....or is it smaller.....time will tell....

But in my book this is a very very high class area with a high percentage of proven finds....they have discovered hydrocarbons, positive formations and multiple levels of  significant gas.....they have acquired 80 adjoining acres......  hmm it seems to be no the whole truth to the upside rather then the down.....but why???  What are they up to ???? or Why are they too scared to say???


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## pilots (12 January 2010)

I know nothing about VIL, but when I see a share at 4.2c and they tell you they have 300feet of pay zone, some thing is not quite right, I smell some thing is wrong here.


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## condog (12 January 2010)

pilots said:


> I know nothing about VIL, but when I see a share at 4.2c and they tell you they have 300feet of pay zone, some thing is not quite right, I smell some thing is wrong here.




That depends on the number of shares on issue entirely.... ... but in this case its 367M shares

But i here what your saying.....yes its not priced in and never has been....it will be when / if mgmt ever make an announcement.......this mgmt may even be so conservative with announcment that they choose to drop three more holes on 3 sides to verify quantities.......  now that will drag things on a bit more for whatever the possible hidden agenda is.....


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## condog (12 January 2010)

Ive been re-reading this announcment to try and interperet whats actually likely and its the most rediculously ill worded extremely positive announcment i have ever read....  It wasnt till about my 4th time through i noticed the significcance of it.. I will attempt to highlight below the way i now read it and see what you think.

I think two things happened today.. the traders jumped out because they mis interpreted it which isnt surprising givien its wording, secondly the company dissapointed because it held back on quantified data, in which case it should possible never have had the halt in the first place..

Highlights - highlighted in red.

ASX Announcement
12 January 2010
The Manager
Company Announcements Office
ASX Ltd
4th Floor, 20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY, NSW 2000
Dear Sir,
• Fausse Point Well intersects *over 300 feet of formation *and reaches Target Depth.
• Joint Venture *secures an additional 80 acres *of adjacent land.
Highlights:
• The #1 Well has now been drilled to its final depth of 8,475 ft.
• Drilling has encountered *over 300 feet of quality hydrocarbon bearing formation*.
• *Mudlogging shows good quality sandstone with hydrocarbon fluorescence and up to 2% oil *in drill cuttings and mud.
• *Electric line logging has identified hydrocarbon occurrences throughout high permeability and porosity sands.*
• An additional 80 acres of adjacent land has been secured.
• *Casing of the entire well completed in preparation *for an extensive testing campaign.
• *3 exciting zones of interest in #1 Well to be tested*.
The Board of Verus Investments Ltd (“Verus”) *is delighted to announce *that recent drilling of the TGR Land Co. Inc #1 Well at the Fausse Point oil and gas project in Louisiana *has intersected the primary targeted deep gas play with very strong oil and gas indications.*Drilling over the last few days penetrated the main target gas sands (identified by seismic) at just over 8,145 ft and continued to the final well depth, encountering over 300 ft of good quality high porosity and permeability formation.
*Logging and sidewall coring of the target gas sands has been completed *and casing has now been run and cemented to this target depth. *The results of the logging and side wall cores will be provided to the market as soon as they are fully interpreted.*The drilling rig will shortly be demobilized and a “workover” rig will be mobilised to undertake production testing. It is anticipated that this rig change over will take 2 weeks and testing a further 2 weeks. *The development of a comprehensive and extensive production testing and formation evaluation program is underway to provide the information required to fully evaluat the discovery.* Once testing is complete, the results and *all other data will be analysed to fully understand the commercial viability *of the discovery. *This data will also enable the partners to plan for the field to be completely and efficiently developed to maximise its potential.*Comprehensive analysis to understand these zones of interest is currently underway with any definitive conclusions requiring further review as drilling has occurred adjacent to a salt dome with the presence of salt which can provide mixed results. *While the gas shows and oil indicators over the three zones of interest are very encouraging*, the commercial significance cannot be determined until a production testing operation is completed.
*Land access agreements required for production pipeline laying, and agreements for connection to existing nearby production facilities and distribution network, thereby enabling gas sales, are almost complete. *The tie in point to this major trunk line is approximately 1.6 miles away.
*Additionally, the Joint Venture partners have completed negotiations to enable exclusive access to approximately 80 acres of additional license area adjacent to the discovery.* This compliments the existing 272 acres already within the Joint Operating Agreement.
“This is a fantastic result for Verus” the Chairman Mr Andrew McIlwain commented. * “Whilst we always acknowledged that this investment was not a certainty, the confidence we had in the data and the capabilities of the operator Golden Gate Petroleum and its subsidiary company - Kindee Oil & Gas – as well as the drilling contractor, has been returned many fold.* *We are still to fully understand the commercial viability of the well, however at this stage; this appears to be the best outcome Verus shareholders could have wished for”.*
“The approach taken by the operator on this job has been first class. The shallower gas bearing intervals encountered provided some challenges, as previously reported to the market, slowing drilling at the time. At the operator’s recommendation, we brought forward casing of the well which enabled continued safe drilling to the primary target. *Our “dry well” cost estimate was reasonable and the casing costs and additional logging were always going to be part of bringing the well into commercial production” *Mr McIlwain stated.


My comments - 
1. Why secure 80 additrional acres if commercialisation is not likely to be assured.
2. Over 300 feet with very high pressures encounterd that stopped and dramatically slowed drilling for so long is stated as significant many times...
3. OVer 300 feet of hydrocarbon bearing formations.....very significant...
4. casing of entire well - Its not financially intelligent or viable to case the entirety unless its viable or at least your confident its should  to be....
5. Mudlogging shows good quality sandstone with hydrocarbon fluorescence and up to 2% oil - if its here an adjacent well in such a huge tenement with so many other known targets , will find a primary oil target...
6. 3 exciting zones of interest in #1 Well to be tested - indeed , no kidding what happened to wireline data ......
7. "The Verus board is delighted to announce " - what are they delighted about....IMHO they are delighted about wht the indicative dat they are still sitting on waiting for confimred analysis
8. One of the most critical few words *"has intersected the primary targeted deep gas play with very strong oil and gas indications."* Very strong indicator this is what they where after....
9. "Logging and sidewall coring of the target gas sands has been completed " so they know but we dont.... hence me trying to read things into it...
10. "The results of the logging and side wall cores will be provided to the market as soon as they are fully interpreted" so expect an imminent announcment....
11. "The development of a comprehensive and extensive production testing and formation evaluation program is underway to provide the information required to fully evaluat the discovery." They think its worth evaluating - great sign....not as good a s a definite, but maybe conservative mgmt scared of making independent decisions...
12. "all other data will be analysed to fully understand the commercial viability " is this a hint / mistake or did it just ambiguosly indicate commericla viability... im not sure...could be either way...
13. "This data will also enable the partners to plan for the field to be completely and efficiently developed to maximise its potential." another leading sentence that seems to hint very strongly at commercial viability....
14."While the gas shows and oil indicators over the three zones of interest are very encouraging " they are not prepared to make a decision or announcment without the testing....probably very wise but many small explorers have enough know how to make that decieion without 4 weeks of testing.....
15."Land access agreements required for production pipeline laying, and agreements for connection to existing nearby production facilities and distribution network, thereby enabling gas sales, are almost complete. " What on earth would you do this for if you were noit fully intending to commercialise this venture....
16.Additionally, the Joint Venture partners have completed negotiations to enable exclusive access to approximately 80 acres of additional license area adjacent to the discovery. - very indicative they think they have something very significant....always a hugely positive sign....
17.    “Whilst we always acknowledged that this investment was not a certainty, the confidence we had in the data and the capabilities of the operator Golden Gate Petroleum and its subsidiary company - Kindee Oil & Gas – as well as the drilling contractor, has been returned many fold. has been....does any one else see that as a staement that indicates possible known certainty of a result....
18. Then the icing on the cake
"We are still to fully understand the commercial viability of the well, however at this stage; this appears to be the best outcome Verus shareholders could have wished for”. I dont know about you but 40c per share as indicated in the investor presentation was the best result i had in mind..? is this pointing at it as the outcome..or have i totally mis correlated the two statements.
19. Again seems to be speaking as if its a done deal, just not announced yet.
"Our “dry well” cost estimate was reasonable and the casing costs and additional logging were always going to be prt of bringing the well into commercial production”


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## condog (12 January 2010)

Now compare that announcment above by Verus to the GGP one released on the same day about the same well and information....7 minutes apart...
GGP came out first and I as most other investors had only been watching GGP one initally as VIL had simply been republishing the GGP announcments...

here is the GGP one:

Market Release (via electronic lodgement)
FAUSSE POINT WELL TO BE COMPLETED FOR PRODUCTION TESTING
The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1
well at Fausse Point has reached its targeted depth of 8,475 ft and has completed logging and running sidewall cores over the third gas show objective.
After the initial review of the accumulated data acquired to date, the partners have decided to complete the well and 5 ½ inch casing is presently being run. A production testing program is being developed from the data acquired over the three intervals.
The well has recorded three separate gas and oil intervals starting at 7,000 ft. There have been numerous zones of interest across all three intervals. The lowest interval just logged includes several zones of interest with some showing good permeability, porosity and oil/condensate in the sample cores. Fully understandingthese zones of interest is currently underway with any definitive conclusions requiring further review as drilling has occurred adjacent to a salt dome with the presence of salt which can provide mixed results.
The well spudded on Saturday 5 December 2009. The well is expected to be completed over the next day or so and a production testing program started within 2 weeks.
Additional surrounding acreage has been acquired to secure the estimated structure size.
*Comments*
While the gas shows and oil indicators over the three zones of interest are very encouraging, the commercial
significance cannot be determined until a production testing operation is conducted.


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## Tommo_Aus (12 January 2010)

IMO its a pretty fair call the well is commercially viable, but to me it seems management are trying to cover their arses just in case it isn't. This operation has the potential to make or break the company so being 100% sure seems reasonable to me. If they were to announce a commercially viable well at this stage and it turned out not to be, the SP would tank far further than being right the first time.

Interesting day, I thought I would completely miss out on VIL. Seeing the buyers lining up before the halt was lifted I'm surprised to see the SP down today. Personally I'm not complaining as it gave me an entry. Good times ahead, time to wait for the real announcement 

Now holding @ 4.5c


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## condog (12 January 2010)

Im sure this was what most investors have in mind when they say 
"this appears to be the best outcome Verus shareholders could have wished for”.


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## questionall_42 (12 January 2010)

condog said:


> Im sure this was what most investors have in mind when they say
> "this appears to be the best outcome Verus shareholders could have wished for”.




Condog - your excitement about VIL is palpable. What is the source of that graph and analysis in the previous post?


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## condog (12 January 2010)

questionall_42 said:


> Condog - What is the source of that graph and analysis in the previous post?




From the investor presentation released to asx by VIL on 16th October 2009...its in relation to this current drilling prospect...


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## condog (12 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> If they were to announce a commercially viable well at this stage and it turned out not to be, the SP would tank far further than being right the first time.
> 
> Now holding @ 4.5c




Welcome to the registry....

Im not sure ive got you right....but if this one turns out not to be commericially viable....it would seem that they intend to proceed one way or another...GGP are the working interest (I also hold them) and they have plenty of cash and intention to keep drilling this tenement....

SO it may temporarily tank a bit but not for too long...and then a whole new upside in a new well will present....

My monies on a big announcment...


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## sjx (12 January 2010)

Interesting take on the fact they may be holding a bit back... I have a tendency to agree that could be a strong possibility. 

anything could happen. 

Over the next four weeks I would expect we will get an announcement here and there (maybe 1 per week..?) and the share price will rise to 5.5-5.8cents until we get the "commercially viable" go ahead... 

All the people getting in now on these results have a brilliant opportunity...

It is rare that this sort of opp rises where the parties involved are clearly pretty motivated... god just read between the lines in the Verus announcement. If you can't be bothered, condog did it for you a few posts above.. this thing is going to be a goer... 


good luck. all my opinion only etc,


thanks
Sam,


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## sjx (12 January 2010)

Now that I reread the announcements for the 5th time today..I  really do think the guy who wrote this ramble wrote it with a smile on his face... such a good announcement.. look at the language they use..!


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## McCoy Pauley (12 January 2010)

Most traded stock by volume again today.  183.45 million shares traded today, worth $8.38 million.  Very interested in this stock, but yet to jump in - need to work out with an imminent property purchase whether I have the funds available.


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## suhm (13 January 2010)

Hi, I'm comparing this to another of my oil shares coe has a market cap of 156m about 90m cash and 1.9m barrels of p50 oil reserves and producing 500k barrels of oil a year at present + quite a few exploration targets

VIL has very little cash from what I saw, just the 2m from the recent placement and no other exploration targets and the p50 oil reserve estimate for the field is 7.4m barrels. GGP quotes the same figure for the potential size of the field so would not their share be 3.7m barrels at a market cap of approx 140m for their base case scenario that seems quite high.

Given this is an onshore target close to existing pipeline facilities, capex I am assuming shouldn't be high (I'm not sure how much it costs do put in a production well, would they need extra cash? or need to farm out?) so if they can produce the 1500 barrels a day it should be quite profitable. 

I can see the upside from the current sp if the target proves to be commercially viable and the announcement seem to hint that management is fairly confident it will but I am trying to find out how much upside there is.


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## condog (13 January 2010)

suhm said:


> Hi, I'm comparing this to another of my oil shares coe has a market cap of 156m about 90m cash and 1.9m barrels of p50 oil reserves and producing 500k barrels of oil a year at present + quite a few exploration targets
> 
> VIL has very little cash from what I saw, just the 2m from the recent placement and no other exploration targets and the p50 oil reserve estimate for the field is 7.4m barrels. GGP quotes the same figure for the potential size of the field so would not their share be 3.7m barrels at a market cap of approx 140m for their base case scenario that seems quite high.
> 
> ...




I have been a long time holder / trader and have only recently got out of COE. 
COE's fortunes have only just recently begun to turn more favourable...and it has been choppy for a long time, often getting far ahead of itself , eg its 71c price spike ....

COE sp of 50c ish, market cap of 156M
VIL sp of 3c last week market cap of <20M ...Capex for this project is very low because VIL own 50% and GGP are the working party....GGP at last check had a similar market cap and m,ultiple projects with $6M cash, plus cash flows....

So continued work on Fausse Point is able to continue for some time before either needs to go requesting cash...

COE is certainly beginning to look very attractive again....and is in a different class, because unless it finds a major reserve its share price is unlikely to go up 10+ times, where as Fausse point on all probability if this side of the salt dome is remotely like the other side is more then likely to produce a very significnat result for the very small VIL

Look at the finds along the othr side of the dome, then compare those too the tenement size of VIL / GGP...only one of those tenements came up dry, and to my knowledge its been under explored....plus theres 80 new acres announced yesterday....so VIL tenement is approx same size as 6 of those other producing tenements......

Now do the maths on why people are excited....and even if this well is not perfect..... theres massively positive and significnat indicators ....plus huge expanses of other areas to drill....  Even if this one is commercial, it is likely they will drop a lot more wells...and possible / probable the reserves will continue to pop up....




Thats an average tenement oil strike of 2.1MMOB plus the gas for the salt dome....
And yet most those producing tenements are a fraction of the size of the GGP/VIL tenement
CEO has 156M market cap with 1.9M P50 (P2) which = 50% * 1.9M BO = 0.8MMBO

VIL only has market cap around $20- $25 M, and  if any major find that reflects the average for the area may have an estimated 2.1MMBO of P1 plus gas = 90% * 2.1M BO, possibly up to 7.5MMBO and possible worst case of 0.5MMBO which looks very unlikely... so on face value it looks possible VIL may soon either now or with more exploration have more oil and cas than COE ????

This is of course all hypothetical estimated projections so DYOR and seek expert advice...opinion only....yes i own and to intend to profit from both  VIL and GGP

Then theres the gas which they may or may not have already found...but it seems ver likely they did....it only requires 1.6 mile of piping...Piping ranges from $30,000 to $100,000 per inch mile....but given cheap labour and recession in the US im inclined to think say $50,000 or so....  They can put in a pretty significant 1.6 mile pipe for a few $100K....and they are in business....

Now im not a mathamatician, although i do love maths, but when one does the probability of a find and its size for VIL, it gets a little exciting....
Hence the excitement with VIL


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## condog (13 January 2010)

I have just sent Verus a very very heated  email demanding they come back to the market with a less ambiguous announcment, stating exactly what they think they have and in what estimated quantities...

I have also take advantage to buy signiificantly more VIL

I suggest other investors do the same , not buy, just email

there email is info@verus.com.au or better still call them...on 02 9233 2520 or fax them on 02 9233 2530.... there switch board is currently jammed so i suggest a fax....

Demanding they re-release in extremely clear language exactly what they know and exactly what they think the likely outcome is....

As investors we have the right to know exactly what they know and they do not have the right to hold it back...


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## Putty7 (13 January 2010)

I was in the line up to top up at .039c but lifted it to .04c just before they ran out, whether it drops further who over the day knows but the opportunity was there.


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## Tommo_Aus (13 January 2010)

I'd be interested to see the response to your email, granted they give you permission to post it in a public forum.


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## condog (13 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> I'd be interested to see the response to your email, granted they give you permission to post it in a public forum.




fax them or email them asap as the more they get the more inclined they will be to give us a very fast proper update


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## condog (13 January 2010)

No response from either GGP or VIL, and no acknowledgement of email recipt yet...
It seems our impatient traders are thinning out and theres reasonable buying pressure mounting again, unlike yesterday and this morning.....

Two more for you to look into and discuss folks....these are DEFINITELY not reccomendations but merely raising them for interest sake why we all wait for the blessed information or otherwise.... cause i got inundated by PM's asking me what they where....... TON and EXE..... ive made reasonably detailed comments in both threads...DYOR and seek expert advice...please do not discuss in here... respect  VIL ...go take a look and see what you think....theres a lot of reading in analysing these types of stocks properly, but the risk assessment is a lot more accurate...

Till we meet again....cheers..


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## rabbit59 (13 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> I was in the line up to top up at .039c but lifted it to .04c just before they ran out, whether it drops further who over the day knows but the opportunity was there.




VERY VERY lucky for me, i got my finger in at .039  great!

anyhow, good luck and as condog said previously, PLEASE DYOR this is all an exploration company, there are alot of variables, and risks involved. 

Good luck to all investors....


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## Putty7 (13 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> I was in the line up to top up at .039c but lifted it to .04c just before they ran out, whether it drops further who over the day knows but the opportunity was there.




Good to see the time to proof read that was well spent, nice pick up Rabbit, I was in a bit slow prefering to watch rather than act until it settled down. 3rd time I have topped up on a low but will settle in for the road ahead now. 

It appears for the moment Skyquakes ratsack has worked with the SP quieting down considerably today.


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## Swervin Mervin (13 January 2010)

Hi guys,

I've been looking from afar at this stock for a while and have been waiting for the wirelog results to be announced before I take up a position, however after looking at the stocks behaviour today I feel I will take up a holding first thing tomorrow morning as the Chairman of Verus seems very confident of having a commercial discovery of oil and gas.

With the FPO's at 4.2c and the options at 0.9c I think I'll just go for the options as with 5 full months to go until expiry I feel that with a commercial find the options should reach the 10c strike price easily, especially with more wells in the pipeline.

I just hope they don't have an announcement before the opening in the morning as I've left my decision to buy pretty late in proceedings.

If anyone else would like to comment on the options it would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers from Merv


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## Sainter (13 January 2010)

Swervin,
There are two ways to make money from the options-flog them off to some mug before expiry ('pass the parcel') or hope VIL break through 10c exercise price which is still a long way off (which is what you state). The former is gambling, the latter is hoping, at least in my book given additional wells would probably be needed to realistically get above 10c! Either could work, but I would and did recently choose VIL over VILO as it removes the time pressure from this equation. 

I only hold a few, so VIL is not material in the financial scheme of things for me.


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## Swervin Mervin (13 January 2010)

Thanks Sainter,

I suppose it will be a gamble with the options but I feel that the time factor shouldn't be an issue as if this first well exceeds the best case scenario's that I read in the October presentation then the FPO's should be higher than 10c pretty much after the flow testing is completed which is only a month away.

What I will be gambling on is that the Chairman of Verus is correct in his statement where he said something along the lines of that "It's the best result that shareholders could have hoped for".

I'll probably get it completely wrong and come up short but I can only go on the information that the company has reported so far and it looks to me to be the better buy.

We'll definitely find out in a couple of weeks one way or the other!


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## Tommo_Aus (13 January 2010)

Well its safe to say your not alone, there are many of us waiting on concrete results to be fed through. At this stage VIL has been beating around the bush with somewhat ambiguous statements, there are subtle hints at results but no firm indication as to the commercialisation possibilities of the project.

Who knows, there could be an announcement at pre-open tomorrow... or there could be an announcement in several weeks, it all depends on how much analysis they do before reporting their findings.


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## Sainter (14 January 2010)

Given the oppies have only 5.5 months, it comes down to how many wells can be drilled in that time to support 10+ cents. These wells usually take a bit of time to line up, so there may not be another drilled/completed/assessed before June (my uninformed guess).  So will just this one hole be good enough to push the price above 10c? That is the key question the option holders have to weigh up if they are not planning to offload before exercising. 
I tend to look at options in relation to differential between strike price +option cost vs heads cost. IN the current case, 10+~0.8c =10.8c versus 4.2c for the heads, or a 6.6c differential which is due in <6 months. Now I accept the leverage angle, but in my simple mind, you're paying >150% premium of the head cost (i.e. >4.2c*1.5 = 6.3c) for a <6 month loan. If you really believe the company, why not borrow money at 8% p.a. to buy the heads (e.g. offset against a home loan which is how I borrow when I choose to) if you can and remove the expensive premium and the time constraint? Yes, the potential downside is greater, but if you really believe in the company, then it makes more financial sense to do it that way, at least to me it does.
Cheers!


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## Swervin Mervin (14 January 2010)

Thanks for the advice Sainter and Thommo, I probably should have mentioned that I'm only going to be investing a few grand so I suppose that makes me lean towards the options more because of the increased leverage. Anyway guys I hope I can get in in the morning before the announcement. Goodnight


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## condog (14 January 2010)

Sainter said:


> Given the oppies have only 5.5 months, it comes down to how many wells can be drilled in that time to support 10+ cents. These wells usually take a bit of time to line up, so there may not be another drilled/completed/assessed before June (my uninformed guess).  So will just this one hole be good enough to push the price above 10c? That is the key question the option holders have to weigh up if they are not planning to offload before exercising.
> I tend to look at options in relation to differential between strike price +option cost vs heads cost. IN the current case, 10+~0.8c =10.8c versus 4.2c for the heads, or a 6.6c differential which is due in <6 months. Now I accept the leverage angle, but in my simple mind, you're paying >150% premium of the head cost (i.e. >4.2c*1.5 = 6.3c) for a <6 month loan. If you really believe the company, why not borrow money at 8% p.a. to buy the heads (e.g. offset against a home loan which is how I borrow when I choose to) if you can and remove the expensive premium and the time constraint? Yes, the potential downside is greater, but if you really believe in the company, then it makes more financial sense to do it that way, at least to me it does.
> Cheers!




I hear what your saying and totally agree with the way your calculating if it was based on a mature company..... but the leverage here is rediculous and you shouldnt be in VIL if you just want it to double....

With these small companies with highly leverage potential resources its not a slow incremental rise....they either find the resource and confirm it or part of it or they dont, so the rise is sudden and major, when or if it comes....

On that basis and this is not advice I see 5.5 months as a long time for GGP to drop several holes and one would imagine from the excitement of vErus announcment the program will be rapid rather then slow  if this is not the well they wanted...

VIL if it finds the results anticipated by both the company and most its shareholders will hopefully IMO andf in the companies own presentation looking for at least a 10 fold increase.... not 6.6c

That wont happen until they prove their worth with confirmed data.....  which could be a few days or could be in another well..... due to the ambiguity of the recent announcments  who knows....

In terms of dropping wells, all approvals are in place and GGP would possibly drop another one within 4-6 weeks....TBOMK drill targets are already identified..... if this is not the one they are after... there are plenty of rigs nearby due to activity on multiple nearby locations...so just hope in the cue which may be as little as a week or two....

Similarly right now I assume they already know whether they need another well or not...if they do the process would have already started for locating and booking a drilling crew , if not yipee....

These guys have been around the traps long enough to know what they are dealing with here , without waiting for fulll data analysis.....they for whatever reason are just too legalistic, scared etc are not telling us...  In any case they would at least have enough indicators to be making rapid preparations for another well or silently celebrating while waiting for confirmation from production testing...


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## skyQuake (14 January 2010)

For those seriously considering the options, please read:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=509274

If I were managment I'd let the oppies lapse before releasing anything that would shoot it above 10c :

Implied volatility is something like 75%


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## condog (14 January 2010)

skyQuake said:


> For those seriously considering the options, please read:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=509274
> 
> If I were managment I'd let the oppies lapse before releasing anything that would shoot it above 10c :




No offence as I know you where just commenting, but...

You cant do that or you get banned by ASIC for a long time, and investors will avoid you like the plague.....public companies need public money....and the only bargaining tool they have is faith / trust in managment....

I dont think GGP or VIL meant to be ambiguous and contradictory of each other, but in doing so there are many people who will have lost a little or a lot of faith in them to he 100% up fornt, honest and timely...

Im very annoyed, but willing tostay invested for the moment...any more occurances like this and id be out... there are too many other great companies out there with huge upside to bother with companies that willingly or unwillingly appear to hold back information form investors....

PS... No response from or acknowledgment of reciept of emails from either GGP or VIL


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## Putty7 (14 January 2010)

skyQuake said:


> For those seriously considering the options, please read:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=509274
> 
> ...




Nice thread Skyquake, I think I said earlier through this thread, it's also about who doesn't want the options coming online as far as traders go, as we have seen it is an easy share to move about and supress, if a few of the bigger holders, instos or traders don't want them about they can supress the SP until July and participate in a Cap raising instead, so not just the company to worry about although I take your points onboard about it being a cunning ploy by a company.


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## Swervin Mervin (14 January 2010)

Thanks guys for your input,

I just got half a million oppies at 0.9c so I'm pretty happy I got in before the pending announcement.

I'm hoping that the heads might get to 6 or 7 cents following the flow testing and my plan is to offload them for around 2 cents.

If I lose the lot then it's not that much money anyway, but from what the chairmans been saying you'd think it would make it those levels surely.

The heads are off to a nice start today anyway.

Good luck to all!


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## condog (14 January 2010)

Swervin Mervin said:


> Thanks guys for your input,
> 
> I just got half a million oppies at 0.9c so I'm pretty happy I got in before the pending announcement.
> 
> ...




At least you know your downside is locked in..... 500k not a bad hedge for $4500...  good luck ey hope it works in your favour.....  

You option holders aught to be the ones bashing the door down for clearer and uniform  communication 

Very nice buy volumes building again.... I bought 100,000 AUT this morning, not as much leverage as VIL, but IMO DYOR virtually certain upside very significant... worth a look but DYOR and seek advice....opinion only...I was torn between ADI and AUt and went AUT for its acerage....Disc -very limited supply on sale so if it takes off im selling half and may profit from anyone who buys...


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## Putty7 (14 January 2010)

Swervin Mervin said:


> Thanks guys for your input,
> 
> I just got half a million oppies at 0.9c so I'm pretty happy I got in before the pending announcement.
> 
> ...




Best of luck Mervin, I think the inground resource valuation will be the biggest catalyst for the SP, if they announce they will hook up the 1.6 miles of pipe and start producing if the well is commercially viable is another, the flow rates of the well being yet another, the next well to follow again a catalyst, we are all speculating but it looks good and there is a silver lining, the thing for the oppies is the interest in the share which doesn't seem to be in shortage and the timing of events, if they decide before June to do a cap raising before .10c is reached I would start to be worried.


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## pilots (14 January 2010)

Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.


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## condog (14 January 2010)

pilots said:


> Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.




What the hell do you base that on Pilots did you not read the press release and compare this huge tenement to all the other tiny tenements along side it that all came up trumps.....

Your completely entitled to your opinion, but youve just given blatent advice, and it could possibly turn out very wrong...

Man with that stupid and blatant advice you could cost yourself a huge amount of money if it went up 40c and he decided to sue your **** off.....youd be 110% liable ....id retract that if I was you...


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## pilots (14 January 2010)

condog said:


> What the hell do you base that on Pilots did you not read the press release and compare this huge tenement to all the other tiny tenements along side it that all came up trumps.....
> 
> Your completely entitled to your opinion, but youve just given blatent advice, and it could possibly turn out very wrong...
> 
> Man with that stupid and blatant advice you could cost yourself a huge amount of money if it went up 40c and he decided to sue your **** off.....youd be 110% liable ....id retract that if I was you...




 Condog,   If they have NOTHING you could all so have  LOST all your money as well, feel free to sue me any time that you have lost any money, on any stock, on the share market.


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## GaryS (14 January 2010)

Yes there is alot of ramping on HC, but there is both up and down ramping. The guys who are doing that are traders in for a quick profit.

If you are in for the long haul the fundamentals look extremely good, IMO.

DYOR, etc., as I have, and you can make an informed decision on whether to hold or sell


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## Putty7 (14 January 2010)

GaryS said:


> Yes there is alot of ramping on HC, but there is both up and down ramping. The guys who are doing that are traders in for a quick profit.
> 
> If you are in for the long haul the fundamentals look extremely good, IMO.
> 
> DYOR, etc., as I have, and you can make an informed decision on whether to hold or sell




A lot of the stuff posted on HC about VIL is just ridiculous and yes Gary it goes both ways, I actually threw a few posts in amongst the craziness myself even though I promised myself I wouldn't, if you do your own research and make your own decisions then there is no one to blame but yourself for your actions.


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## pilots (14 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> A lot of the stuff posted on HC about VIL is just ridiculous and yes Gary it goes both ways, I actually threw a few posts in amongst the craziness myself even though I promised myself I wouldn't, if you do your own research and make your own decisions then there is no one to blame but yourself for your actions.




 Putty7, you have hit the nail on the head, it is about time we have to be accountable for our own actions, back when GDN,CVI, CAZ was being ramped I was told many times that I was going to have nothing after the lawyers was finished with me. It is one of the ways the rampers try to shut the down rampers up.


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## treeman (14 January 2010)

How can you be be taken to court over posting on a forum? That's a bit ridiculous, people should be responsible for their own actions


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## So_Cynical (14 January 2010)

pilots said:


> Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.



 The Ramp team at ASF aint doing to bad either, im surprised the Mods have let this thread go as far as its gone.


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## condog (14 January 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> The Ramp team at ASF aint doing to bad either, im surprised the Mods have let this thread go as far as its gone.




So_Cynical I see you still seeking revenge for some strange reason...why dont you grow up and take off......please come back when you actually  know what your talking about and have something meaningful to contribute to the dialogue.....

You have made two posts in this thread and neither have contained any information of any value to readers....I suggest you show some restraint, intelligence and emotional maturity and just plain old grow up.....

There is a monumental difference between ramping and discussing..... to my knowledge everyone in this thread has made it extremeley clear its their opinion....  I and others have posted almost two pages bagging managements ambiguity in their announcment....  If you bothered to read it rather then take sheap shots like this rubbish you might actually not look so unintelligent by writing this rediculous and defamatory statement.....

If the mods should act on anything it is the extreme immaturity and garbage you are displaying by following my threads and making rediculous and defamatory remarks...

Fellow VIL people I apologise you need to read this garbage... I have contact Joe with details and hopefully he will put some major pressure on So_Cynical to decist with this rubbish.


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## condog (14 January 2010)

pilots said:


> Condog,   If they have NOTHING you could all so have  LOST all your money as well, feel free to sue me any time that you have lost any money, on any stock, on the share market.




Pilots i fully accept that...your staement does not affect me as i am not holdong or selling VILO....

But man you got to be careful making suchj balatent advice like that with no disclaimers in this day and age....

You go for it if you wish....I agree everyone should be 100% accountable for own actions....but just do yourself a favour and be careful issueing blanket advice or whatever to sell..... 

All he best pilots...etal


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## condog (14 January 2010)

Any accusations of ramping are plainly unfounded ...go back and read pages 5 and 6....almost all of it is critical by the same people who are possible being accused of ramping.....

LEts get back to discussing the stock and any information that comes to hand...


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## sjx (14 January 2010)

pilots said:


> Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.




...

correct- much of garbage there is ramping and time well wasted reading... however there is some extremely informative and interesting discussion as well..

Did you read the announcements??..  These guys have reasons to be excited. Nothing wrong with taking some profit, but it looks very promising.


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## Joe Blow (14 January 2010)

A few comments on this thread:



pilots said:


> Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.




Please do not advise others to buy or sell any stock. This could be considered financial advice and is not permitted on forums such as ASF.

To all thread participants:

Feel free to present any fundamental or technical analysis you may have (either bullish or bearish) or to discuss any publicly available information that pertains to this company. 

But there is no need for insults or personal attacks under any circumstances, so lets keep the discussion civil. 

Thank you all for your co-operation.


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## suhm (14 January 2010)

condog said:


> I have been a long time holder / trader and have only recently got out of COE.
> COE's fortunes have only just recently begun to turn more favourable...and it has been choppy for a long time, often getting far ahead of itself , eg its 71c price spike ....
> 
> COE sp of 50c ish, market cap of 156M
> ...




Thanks for the detailed reply condog, I've only started looking at the drivers of resource/energy share values over the last year or so and the value of exploration tenemants is something I'm still having trouble with.

Much easier for me to put a value on cash and production from reserves.

I'll probably wait until an announcement comes out saying this is a commercial find before taking a proper sized position in this. There's a lot of difference between a hole in the ground and a producing well.

The options also seem a little overpriced given the headstock would have to more than double for the options to be in the money and your only getting 4x the leverage. To each their own though.


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## condog (15 January 2010)

suhm said:


> Thanks for the detailed reply condog, I've only started looking at the drivers of resource/energy share values over the last year or so and the value of exploration tenemants is something I'm still having trouble with.
> 
> Much easier for me to put a value on cash and production from reserves.
> 
> ...




Suhm = some very valid points

Its the old risk reward trade off.....

If your willing to take the calculated risk prior to the actual confirmation well, obviously the risk is tremendeslly higher....

Having said that though sometimes its not always a risk of a no find (but that can happen) , in a highly prospective regions its more likely to be how many drills will it take to hit, ie its mre an issue of cash burn rate.

The majority of the gain is in the initial find, then theres a heap when production cash flow commences, more if they become cash flow +ve, more when they strart there next drilling....but IMO the best gains with defintely the highest risk are on the initial finds of new resources......thats when the majority of an assets value is priced in and its when the share holders have the most leverage to the new asset.....

Each investor has to understand his her own risk profile and thats great that youv'e weighed that up...... There is always a possiblity of coming up dry....

In the case of Fausse Point IMO Im confident they will make a significant find, IMO its more a case of whether its this well the next, the next etc....My assumptions are based on the adjoining results and the fact that the salt dome has likely penetrated the hdrocarbon forming zones, meaning that IMO its possible to have similar hydrocarbons on both sides of the dome...GGP announcment dated 12th Jan says the results "includes several zones of interest
with some showing good permeability, porosity and oil/condensate in the sample cores." this to me was a hugely positive indicator, as it indicates the salt dome has more the likely split the hydorcarbon producing layers rather then coming up on one edge of the formations...

I have revised my calcultaions of my estimates because of the tenement size compared tot those on the other side of the zone....

My new calcs for my use and your laughter.....

For ease of calculation I have simply included gas equivelents as BO.

IMO Worst case = no find of commercial yet = sp to hover around 3.5c to 4.0c +or- 0.5c, initally selling pressure would obviously hammer this...
( worth more with +ve gas indicators now then prior to drilling)

IMO My estimated outcome to base my possible upside if a find is confirmed (not necesarily form this well) = Av find on other side @2.1MmBO * 50% int * 5 times tenement size = 10.5 * 50%  = 5.25 MMBO at net $30 P/BO @ 60% recovery possibility = $94.5M total over say a 5 year life = $18.9 free cash flow p.a. on $25M company..... at PE of 8 = new mcap of 151M at PE of 9 = mcap of 170M  using net earnings...    = sp of 0.465 very roughly
  Bear in mind that sp may take further wells aloong the tenement even after the first positive find to boost confidence this size resource exists....so it wont be over night....

IMO Best case, *very unlikely* scenario, but possible  =  5 * 3.5MmOB *50% int at $40 net PBO *75% recovery at PE of 9 to gross Earnings... = $53M p.a with new mcap of $472M = $1.28 sp

So IMO on the first well that implies both commercially viable gas and oil I would be expecting a very volatile  share price very roughly around 21c or so....placing a slightly discounted P50 or 2C value on the rest of the tenement for a similar resource....
IMO if big investors became involved thats the way theyd price it....but with so many small holders and traders, volatility is assured...

As i said these are only my calcs for your enjoyment...they are in no way, verified, implied to be accurate...... But thats my 2c for this morning...

These calcs have not factored in any capital raising for required infrastructer for other reasons...capital raising will reduce those sp's proportionally

ALWAYS - DYOR and SEEK EXPERT ADVICE....not kidding...


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## condog (18 January 2010)

Wow this is interesting to watch unfold , confirmation of multiple zones and the price drops....providing smart people with opportunities to buy.....while the lemmings all jump off the cliff togehter....

Now there my friends is why some people make it in the share market and others fail....  they follow the herd instead of using there head.....

Last week on the sniff of an opportunity these idiots went crazy trying to buy and now they have confirmation of hydrocarbons and huge gas pressures that stopped and slowed drillign they are selling....and beacuse they have to wait a few days while the conservative and guarded announcments keep flowing they all run for the hills....

They have cased to the bottom and leased 80 extra premium priced acres....they have jumped out of their skin in the previous announcment and indicated that we have the best outcome investors could possibly have wished for...

Mark my words: (but DEFINITELY - DO NOT act or make decisions based on them)....

In my opinion VIL has found gas and oil.....and they have confirmed the formations they where looking for exist on this side of the salt dome....
Irrespective of whether this well is commercial or not IMO this stock will rocket when it gets its first commercial well...

In my opinion there will be an early announcment to cease testing and start production.... I am still not sure they have oil in commercial quantities, but its hard to concieve they have insufficient gas to proceed.....I base that on the rediculous pressures and copius mud found, conditioned and circulated in the drilling process....

The company has confirmed the hydrocarbons present, there latest two announcments are now beginning to mention oil more and more.....

The VIL announcment says it all......read between the lines.....they know they are onto something but for legal reasons and conservative decision making processes, they cannot anounce there chickens till they are served up in a snack box.....

We are dealing with clearly some very conservative and guarded operators at GGP.....

I cannot believe the stupidity........


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## Putty7 (18 January 2010)

The fact they are looking to test the primary zone and then if its all good set up for production without testing the rest says a lot (without saying it) for what they found in the primary zone in my opinion. 1.6 miles of pipe to lay and plug in won't take long to do I wouldn't think, all going to plan we could have a well online by the middle of the year, a second one drilled and maybe a third in that time. Question is paying for it, if the SP doesn't hit .10c on the inground volumes and flow results of the first well we may have to face a Cap Raising, if that happens it puts the options in a bit of jeopardy I would think.


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## Tommo_Aus (18 January 2010)

Hard to believe traders are selling out at this stage. I'll wait for a few days and see what the price is like and may buy some more. Right now I'm trying not to buy some @ 4c.


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## condog (18 January 2010)

Mr McIlwain rang me in response to my complaint...about jan 12th announcment

We know everything they do...until testing reveals exact outcome...

But they are very optimistic and that was intended to be expressed in the Jan 12th announcment, and is reflected in the decisions and other items referred to in that announcment...

VIL is very happy with signs so far , pressures, the formations etc as stated in the announcment....

So yes folks it was positive, it was meant to be very positive , but nothing is known or decided till testing is done....

DICLAIMER - DYOR, SEek expert advice, do not act or make decisions based on this information...I own , intend to trade and hold....

So for thsoe that have more then 10 days of patience...signs are very  positive ....


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## condog (18 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> The fact they are looking to test the primary zone and then if its all good set up for production without testing the rest says a lot (without saying it) for what they found in the primary zone in my opinion. 1.6 miles of pipe to lay and plug in won't take long to do I wouldn't think, all going to plan we could have a well online by the middle of the year, a second one drilled and maybe a third in that time. Question is paying for it, if the SP doesn't hit .10c on the inground volumes and flow results of the first well we may have to face a Cap Raising, if that happens it puts the options in a bit of jeopardy I would think.




Yes they are very happy that the formations they wanted are presnet...its just the quantities and qualities that need testing............

There ultimately will be a cap raising somewhere when or if a commercial decision is made.....what form that comes in and who its offered to is unsure....my guess is it will be institutional....

The moment any possible announcment of a commercial venture hits my radar Im sending them an email requesting any cap raisng be offered to all investors equally , rather then the institutions getting a discounted bite of our cherry....and you all should do the same if that eventuates....


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## mlross75 (18 January 2010)

I think they were smart getting the extra land to drill before announcing that the well is commercially viable.


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## Tommo_Aus (18 January 2010)

Don't forget about those 10c options, if they get triggered we may avoid a CR. But if not VIL in all probability will have to perform a CR in order to continue the operation.


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## condog (18 January 2010)

mlross75 said:


> I think they were smart getting the extra land to drill before announcing that the well is commercially viable.




Very good idea....what do you reckon that tells you about the way they are thinking its likely to go....  

Can you imagine the tele-conference if im wrong and todays lemmings are right, it would go something like this:

Hey bro , hey bro , whats doin, not much, how ya goin, not bad, and you, not bad, ey mate so tell me howd we go, no good mate its not commercial and not likely to be, oh well wede better buy some more acerage then and turn it into a cattle station after the investors pay our wages for a few years while we keep lookin.....

Hmm Im not sure but i dont think thats the nature of the conversation or decision making process that seems to have occured...

My guess is it went like this

Hey bro , hey bro , whats doin, not much, how ya goin, not bad, and you, not bad, ey mate so tell me howd we go, good mate, is it commercial, duhno, what, its a bit early to tell, well whats ya thoughts do we case it, well its got some damn good signs and we might stuff it if we leave it open, but bro casing costs a lot of money, so we only case it then if we think its likely to be commercial  otherwise we just let it go and drill elsewhere, na its good enough to case and test.

What about do we need to lease more acres, thats your call mate, well are there enough positive signs that this well or the next in a different location is gunna pay, yeh mate ther is, well then bro , we better secure some more acres and we better do it fast before our results are known to the market....ok mate i will go do it, get us a 2 day halt, it will be cone by then and we can also put out a positive staement giving us a reason for the halt,  na mate cant do that results arenot known, oh well bro is it good or not, yeh its good bro, but we dont know how good, so we tell them its good but we dont say how good, but they will want to know bro, well we tell them we are very pleased but and that we bought acres and cased it... 

Do we need to make arrangements for production, duhno mate, yes or no, cant say its too early, well is there nough there that even if this one is wrong we might get it right and need it soon, ah hell yeh bro, well should we advance talks and infrastructure arrangements, it costs a lot and theres heaps to do, how much, lots, well why do it then, cause you said this might be ok and if its not the next one will be, yeh mate then lets do it

Its really not hard to see whats happeing , yet the poor stupid lemming keep lining up for 0.1c trades and offloads.....poor stupid lemmings I say......
This is why the share market often redistributes wealth, cause the lemmings dont use their brains, they get a feeling and follow the herd.....even when the herds jumping of cliffs or rockets ready and waiting for take off.


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## Tommo_Aus (19 January 2010)

I'm looking to buy another parcel (it'd be my second purchase) but looking at current trades I may wait until later in the week. Now trading @ 3.8c so could be lower on Thursday or Friday, either way if it goes down more I can increase my holding or if it goes up I might even see some green 

Holding @ 4.5c.


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## condog (19 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> I'm looking to buy another parcel (it'd be my second purchase) but looking at current trades I may wait until later in the week. Now trading @ 3.8c so could be lower on Thursday or Friday, either way if it goes down more I can increase my holding or if it goes up I might even see some green
> 
> Holding @ 4.5c.




Yes an interesting week as peoples lack of patience sees them trade any potential gain or loss down the toilet....

8-9 more sleeps kiddies...

As much as i want my profit i almost want to be able to say "told you so" more...time for councilling i feel...


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## condog (20 January 2010)

7-8 More sleeps kiddies......hope you have the resiliance to cope with that...

Looks like ordinary day ahead .....  ???? what strategy is best......

Ignore the tree shakers trying to undermine price or bid it up. the big volumes tell the real story...

Im putting mine in the draw for the week...but i guess some will trade down while other dollar cost average, while others sell out...


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## rabbit59 (20 January 2010)

condog said:


> 7-8 More sleeps kiddies......hope you have the resiliance to cope with that...
> 
> Looks like ordinary day ahead .....  ???? what strategy is best......
> 
> ...




Sold out on the sly condog, and will be looking at stocking back up today...no reason not to take a profit if we have time...  however, DYOR and make your OWN decisions... cheers


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## condog (20 January 2010)

rabbit59 said:


> Sold out on the sly condog, and will be looking at stocking back up today...no reason not to take a profit if we have time...  however, DYOR and make your OWN decisions... cheers




Nothin sly about that, good on ya .... I been wondering what happened to you, thought you might have got the Calicie virus or something...

IMO being out of it when / if a huge announcment is forthcoming caries too much opportunity cost to bother trading for 1/2  a cent or so......  because if it is a big announcment it may come on the back of a trading halt most likely and the re-open will have chopped too much of the early gain...


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## rabbit59 (20 January 2010)

condog said:


> Nothin sly about that, good on ya .... I been wondering what happened to you, thought you might have got the Calicie virus or something...
> 
> IMO being out of it when / if a huge announcment is forthcoming caries too much opportunity cost to bother trading for 1/2  a cent or so......  because if it is a big announcment it may come on the back of a trading halt most likely and the re-open will have chopped too much of the early gain...




I do agree, to some extent, however this mornings open, IMO, i think will be the best time for any 'serious' VIL follower to get in and sit for the week whilst this announcement comes to the market... 

Good luck mate, and all the best, ill be trading on the phone today, wont have the net  all the best to all investors


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## Tommo_Aus (20 January 2010)

Seems to be large resistance @ 3.8c, many buyers are after 3.7 but looks like there aren't any takers at this price. I might buy my parcel this afternoon or wait until Thursday, still not sure. Volume has died down considerably, could be the ones holding now are in for the long haul? Hopefully we've finally thrown out the short traders/stupid ones!


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## condog (20 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Seems to be large resistance @ 3.8c, many buyers are after 3.7 but looks like there aren't any takers at this price. I might buy my parcel this afternoon or wait until Thursday, still not sure. Volume has died down considerably, could be the ones holding now are in for the long haul? Hopefully we've finally thrown out the short traders/stupid ones!




True, i think where seeing a combination of exhaustion of the people who bought in cheap and can get out, plus the force of those with an ounce of common sense holding on...

The really stupid thing is those idiots sitting on the sell side at prices like say 0.043 and above who wont get a sail no until positive news, but a re so lowly priced that they are screwed and out with no profit when any positive news comes through........

7 more sleeps......not counting siestas of course...


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## condog (20 January 2010)

Good to see rational thinking on VIL and GGP right through to the close....

GGP I though might have taken a temporary hit on thier options debarkle....but seemed to get through.... the GGP holders are significantly less flighty then GGP and have been since i began holding and watching both these.....


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## Tommo_Aus (20 January 2010)

I had the chance to buy more @ 3.7c today but chose to wait. I'm still thinking the long weekend may influence the SP as remaining day traders leave. Either way its still a win/win for me because I'll either have the chance to grab some cheap shares or the SP will increase.

I'm probably not the only one watching all VIL forum threads closely


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## pilots (20 January 2010)

Condog, have just got back and read the report from the 18th, the reason the punters have got out is that report said POTENTIAL HYDROCARBONS, it did not say they have found any. They found three Oil and Gas zones, you can find Oil and Gas zones in ANY well you drill, what you need is for them zones to have Oil and Gas in them, your SP will slide now until the testing is complete. Only after they tell you what the flow test are, will you know what the well will do.


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## condog (20 January 2010)

Welcome back pilots......

No testing wont have to be complete the asx announcment and the director both said , if they find its commerically viable the weells have to be producing from the bottom up, so they will immediately cease testing and go to production...So it is very feasably possible to have an announcment within the first few days...they have a permit for a 3 day flare off so id imagine they will uses all 3 days of that...


Agree on 1st sentence but not the rest...too many statements to the contrary...


> include the testing of up to six intervals identified with potential hydrocarbons. Testing






*But then goes on to say: From report 18th dec*


> The well has encountered three separate *gas and oil formations *starting at 7,000 ft.





> several zones of interest with some showing good permeability, porosity *and oil/condensate *in the sample cores.1





> analysis to more precisely determine the mineral composition,





> Petrology is currently being done on sidewall cores and drill cuttings.



*Then from 12th Announcment*


> 3 exciting zones of interest in #1 Well to be tested.





> TGR Land Co. Inc #1 Well at the Fausse Point oil and gas project in Louisiana has intersected the primary targeted deep gas play *with very strong oil and gas indications*.





> While the gas shows and oil indicators
> over the three zones of interest are very encouraging,


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## condog (21 January 2010)

Work has progressed toward readyness for testing / completion Rig

They have done some work to the well, dressed the top of the liner at 7118m,tested the liner,  removed the rig and made tree alterations ready for testing or completion rig....

The previous rig has been released....

The official well status is Waiting on completion rig - but that does not mean anything else...its the completion rig that will conduct the testing...

This is in my words....no inferences or implied meanings are meant here....its just a plane old update

6-7 more sleeps till testing starts....


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## pilots (21 January 2010)

condog said:


> Work has progressed toward readyness for testing / completion Rig
> 
> They have done some work to the well, dressed the top of the liner at 7118m,tested the liner,  removed the rig and made tree alterations ready for testing or completion rig....
> 
> ...




Waiting on the completion rig,Dressing the top of the liner, made tree alterations, what report is that from??? Thanks.


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## condog (21 January 2010)

IMO
The weekend should be safe to be out????? so friday might see some buying opportunities , but my guess is by tuesday afternoon and wednesday onwards we will start seeing a lot of the short term traders coming back into the action and significant volumes and volatility again.... might be a quick profit there for some just tradering???

Over the next few days as your patience tests your conviction it pays to remember this quote from director of VIL on 12th Jan 2010....
______________________________________________________ line



> #1 Well at the Fausse Point oil and gas project in Louisiana has intersected the primary targeted deep gas play with very strong oil and gas indications.




________________________________________________________ line

Commercial viability testing begins in 6-7 nights...a possible early strike would immediately halt testing and go to production....it will not be capped for further testing.....too risky to the well and project...any commercial find would be exhausted before testing further up.....

The first announcment will be very quick if its oil in the bottom at TD.... but if its gas it will require up to a  3 day flare off to determine viability....

That gives anticipated timeline of 6-10 days from this morning for a major announcment on this well...

No comment on commercial viability of #1, but quote above and intended 3 day flare off IMO = good prospects.....with good intentions.....


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## rabbit59 (22 January 2010)

condog said:


> IMO
> The weekend should be safe to be out????? so friday might see some buying opportunities , .




Back in the pool  im in for the long haul... managed to get in the other day at .037 

happy, waiting..wishing.. welling....


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## Tommo_Aus (22 January 2010)

I planned on waiting until Thursday/Friday to buy another parcel, bought some more today @ 3.7c 

I'll be waiting it out now

P.S. holding up well considering DOW last night.


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## Putty7 (22 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> I planned on waiting until Thursday/Friday to buy another parcel, bought some more today @ 3.7c
> 
> I'll be waiting it out now
> 
> P.S. holding up well considering DOW last night.




A lot of the time the little shares move to the beat of their own drum Tommo depending on what they have going on, they don't usually follow the market, thats more or less governed by the blue chips to a certain extent and with VIL already sneaking backwards there was nothing much to lose anyway, but with regards to Thursday or Friday you may be right, think they will have a nothing announcement Monday again with progress reports but until they include some data we appear to be playing the waiting game. I would have thought some of the data analysis would have been done by now.


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## Tommo_Aus (22 January 2010)

I wonder if we'll see a last minute rush of traders wanting in before the weekend. It seems traders are willing to meet the sellers prices this afternoon.


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## condog (22 January 2010)

Putty7 said:


> A lot of the time the little shares move to the beat of their own drum Tommo depending on what they have going on, they don't usually follow the market, thats more or less governed by the blue chips to a certain extent and with VIL already sneaking backwards there was nothing much to lose anyway, but with regards to Thursday or Friday you may be right, think they will have a nothing announcement Monday again with progress reports but until they include some data we appear to be playing the waiting game. I would have thought some of the data analysis would have been done by now.




Theres no well action yet and it was announced for mon or tuesday night our time ...

Good old VIL sitting there today whty the rest og the marketr plummets 90 points... now the doubters are doubting themselves a bit..... AUT looks set to go monday or tuesday...its confirmed flowing to sales by next week..... so looks like a huge week for me next week... just got to make it through the weekend without a GFC part 2...


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## condog (23 January 2010)

Roughly 3 more sleeps and there should be a completion rig on site for testing....

Then all the doubters will be proven wrong......irrespective of commercail prospects....we will have an idea of the pressures and flow rates if its just gas....
If it is just gas expect a 3 day flare off....

If its oil expect a very early announcment that oils flowing to the surface and is being tested for a day or so to establish flow rates....

Dont forget any good news will undoubtedly be greeted with a trading halt.... so make sure you have your position or strategies sorted prior to any halt....

Good luck folks and dont forget....even if its negative they have confirmed the presence of the primary target and its likely just a matter of punching a few more holes till they come up trumps.....

PS accidents can happen down the well even at this alte stage....so dont over position yourself....


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## Swervin Mervin (23 January 2010)

G'day Condog,

Yeah it is going to be a massive week isn't it! I can't wait!! With a bit of luck we'll find out if there's a decent enough flow by the end of the week, and at worst we should have heard by the following Monday.

Even though the oppies have looked dead in the water since I bought them at 0.9c I know that nothing has changed, only the fact that a few people have exited prior to the big announcement for some reason or another. And due to the massive risk attached to them at present there's not exactly a lot of buyers out there so they've been driven down to 0.7c now. I wouldn't be surprised if a few other nervous people sold out this week and even drove them down lower. In hindsight I should've waited a bit longer to buy them but I thought that they would actually go up in anticipation of a good result, but in fact the opposite has occurred.

It is obviously going to take a nice announcement to get them going but I'm thinking if it is good there's all likelyhood they'll be in the money in a flash. 

Anyway mate thanks for all your analysis, I loved that post the other day of the chairman and the landowner discussing the acquisition of the extra land. classic!! Keep up the great work.


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## condog (23 January 2010)

Swervin Mervin said:


> G'day Condog,
> 
> 
> Anyway mate thanks for all your analysis, I loved that post the other day of the chairman and the landowner discussing the acquisition of the extra land. classic!! Keep up the great work.




Ta....glad you liked that one....

Dont be too hard on ya self....all those short term and day traders that where in over a week ago will be back in this week banging the price back up on the same anticipation.....only this time they hvae something more to be excited about....

This time they know theres a good gas and possible oil resource there possibley for the entire tenement....buyt they just want confirmation of a time frams...ie is it this well or next....

At present most the impatient money is off the table...so they can pick of half a dozen other money making trades in the mean time...rest assured they will have it back on the radar this week...those with longer time frames will start creeping in on monday.....you watsh the buying pressure build up during the week.... It will be volatile but will tick up...till the announcment is made...

Keep your other eye on AUT....should be flowing to sales this week....ive got a lot of AUT as well so I have a very big news week....hopefully its all positive......


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## doyoureallycare (24 January 2010)

This is from the site:
http://sonris-www.dnr.state.la.us/www_root/sonris_portal_1.htm

REPORT DATE - 01/18/2010
WELL STATUS - 06
MEASURED DEPTH -  8475

Can anyone please tell me what this part means??

DETAIL- DRESSED OFF TOP OF LNR @ 7118' ; GIH W/ RTTS TOOL; TEST TOL; RELEASE RTTS TOOL; POOH; INSTALLED DHT; R/R 1-14-10; WOCR;

Thanks in advance.


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## condog (24 January 2010)

Hi Doyoureallycare...



condog said:


> Work has progressed toward readyness for testing / completion Rig
> 
> They have done some work to the well, dressed the top of the liner at 7118m,tested the liner,  removed the rig and made tree alterations ready for testing or completion rig....
> 
> ...




Its the same content my report above....except DHT means dry hole tree, which does not indicatie anything other then the xmas treee has been removed so the completion / testing rig can be placed on the well...GIH means greas in hole, TOL means top of liner, BOL = bottom of Liner, RTTS tool is just a tool they use down the well, POOH = pulling out of hole, R/R = rig released, code 06 = WOCR = Waiting on completion rig...

Hope that helps...but just read the quote which summarizes it all.....I dont recommend sonris persoanlly IMO as its raw data and sometimes in my experience the codes can be misleading to an untrained eye....some of the paid subscriptions interpret it a lot  better...but they cost a bit....eg: i know people who have sold out because they see a code change or DHT and it can often mean a completion rig is moving in to complete the well for production...so be careful with your inferences...you draw from it....


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## condog (25 January 2010)

VIL holding up nicely at 13-15% up on a very bearish day....on good volumes....

Looks like the market is voting to show a bit more interest and backing again...

PRevious announcment was on 18th Jan saying 10 days till Completion Rig due for testing... that makes 27th / 28th the due date .......with 26th being public holiday here.....that leaves early birds getting in today, late traders come in on 27th....and those chasing the volumes and trades in by 28th... Im expecting  should be some frantic turnover again by 28th as the traders recirculate the wave of anticipation....

Have an awesome Australia Day everyone...


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## sjx (26 January 2010)

condog said:


> VIL holding up nicely at 13-15% up on a very bearish day....on good volumes....
> 
> Looks like the market is voting to show a bit more interest and backing again...
> 
> ...




Traders hopping back in today, along with some big play investors.. very good stuff. 5c end of next week, 

DYOR


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## pops11 (26 January 2010)

Market closed today try tomorrow.

Anyone think these guys will produce of is this another GDN ??? pump n dump.


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## condog (26 January 2010)

pops11 said:


> Market closed today try tomorrow.
> 
> Anyone think these guys will produce of is this another GDN ??? pump n dump.




What do you base that on ???
For the Fausse Point Salt dome finds already....Average tennements with 2.1MmBOe, and average tenements less then 1/5th the size of this one....
They have drilled and found over 300ft of potential pay plus other zones, they have announced they have "hit their primary target" and they are now testing......

They have announced its the"best possible result investors could have wished for" even if this well is non commercial, they have a very high class lease and will knock down subsequent wells....

Even GGP who are notoriuosly conservative in their announcments say
"The well has encountered three separate gas and oil formations starting at 7,000 ft. There have been numerous zones of interest encountered across these formations."
"The current proposed extensive testing program will start with the lowest interval and then sequentially test each interval on the way up the hole. If the first interval proves commercial, testing will in most likely hood cease and preparations will begin to bring the well onto commercial production"

"Additional surrounding acreage has been acquired to secure the estimated structure size."

Somehow even the cycnic in me finds it extremely difficult to imagine two seperate bunches of directors simultaiously trying to drill investors....esp[ecially given GGP success on other projects...


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## pilots (26 January 2010)

pops11 said:


> Market closed today try tomorrow.
> 
> Anyone think these guys will produce of is this another GDN ??? pump n dump.




Yes remember when GDN had a OIL COLUMN, HUNDREDS OF FEET OF GAS, now that was in the first well, then the second well was bigger still, now we have number three ready to spud as soon as the get some money together. Now with all that oil and gas they have not sold one drop.
Very hard to find a Australian in the Oil/Gas in the USA that has done real well.


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## Putty7 (26 January 2010)

pops11 said:


> Market closed today try tomorrow.
> 
> Anyone think these guys will produce of is this another GDN ??? pump n dump.




They seem to be on track to go into production but not the first time that has been hyped up either, it isn't a huge task, 1.6 miles of pipe and hook it in, if they are not producing by the middle of the year or into the 3rd quarter you will have your answer I think Pops.


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## condog (26 January 2010)

pilots said:


> Yes remember when GDN had a OIL COLUMN, HUNDREDS OF FEET OF GAS, now that was in the first well, then the second well was bigger still, now we have number three ready to spud as soon as the get some money together. Now with all that oil and gas they have not sold one drop.
> Very hard to find a Australian in the Oil/Gas in the USA that has done real well.






pops11 said:


> Market closed today try tomorrow.
> 
> Anyone think these guys will produce of is this another GDN ??? pump n dump.






You are both completely entitled to this extreme view....however it would serve investors in here better if you had some credible evidence to imply such unjustified accusations  are true of VIL, simply because some other company scammed investors once........ 

This is extremely different , they are in a known producing zone, they have made a find, they have removed the drilling rig and are waiting on the completion rig.....they have published all information required to both the ASX and Louisiana DNR.......drilling logs indicate exactly as they have announced........

If we accused every oil/gas company that was WOCR of being the next GDN there would be no junior explorers as investors funds would disipate.....

I suggest you both exercise some patience before casting such wild accusations...  If this had dragged on 3 months your accusations might carry some weight, but with less then 10 days since R/R and still within announcement objectives these accusations are entirely unfounded.....and carry no reason for credibility


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## condog (27 January 2010)

VIL up 12% this morning, now comfortably holding 4.9%...

Traders and speculators are back in big time as antiicpated and predicted....

53M shares turned over this morning, which is approaching last weeks volumes...

Rig should be on site tommorrow...hopefully an announcment on open tommorrow about testing commencing.... first 24-96 hours are critical, as any big oil in the bottom of the primary target would lead to a very quick announcment.....  commercial gas sales would most likely come from the primary target....which is lowest and first tested....

Enjoy the ride omegos


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## pilots (27 January 2010)

CONDOG, This is a day trades dream, they have pushed it up, and you watch how fast they can bring it down.


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## condog (27 January 2010)

pilots said:


> CONDOG, This is a day trades dream, they have pushed it up, and you watch how fast they can bring it down.




Arrr pilots that cynicism and pesimism will put you in an early grave......give it up mate and have some patience....  the markets voting against you with a close of .049 , over 20M shares in last half hour.... thats some big players coming in to back it....

Its all been timed perfectly to indicate markets confidence in the impending announcments, which is a far bigger vote of confidence or pesimism then you or I are imposing on it.....

One more sleep we should have a CR...a few more sleeps we should know....worst case scenario requires a pilot hole elsewhere to determine size.... but chokes should do that....

Lets just wait and see...  Up 38,000 today on it so im not complaining....


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## Tommo_Aus (27 January 2010)

Strong day with high volumes, not to mention going against the flow, a true blue chip stock. Looking at other oilers is it possible for the start of VIL's run to be timed any better? BCC has a delayed well and SGY have suspended their well, the obvious option seems to be VIL so IMO its highly likely this money may flow our way.


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## Joe Blow (28 January 2010)

Please do not post excerpts (or entire articles) from subscriber only newsletters as this is in violation of copyright.


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## condog (28 January 2010)

Thanks Joe

Nice day for VIL... full of anticipation...

Testing rig should be on site tonight for first day..... 

Stay tuned...


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## Putty7 (28 January 2010)

As you say Condog, rig should be on site tonight if not already, not sure how long they take to mobilise, perforate the casing and test but I would think if they arrive on time a Monday or Tuesday announcement regarding the flow rates of the first area of interest (In the Primary target zone at the bottom) could not be ruled out, 14 days to test 6 zones would put the first target to be tested within that window. 

Will be interesting to see if the pushing up and down stops by days end tomorrow because of this possibility. 

As they have stated if the first zone is commercial, testing stops and it is prepared for production, a lot has to go right to see a good announcement early next week but I wouldn't rule it out, they seem to have a lot of confidence in what they have found, I guess next week will show if it is cool gas or hot air.


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## condog (29 January 2010)

I dont want to be accused of ramping or starting rumours.

So you go read the section of todays quarterly activity statement... where GGP put a P50 announcment of 7.4MmBOe on Fause point then come back and tell me what you think....



> Fausse Point Project
> An attractive and inexpensive oil and gas prospect on a producing salt dome field
> Relatively shallow drilling targets (< 9,000 ft) and low-cost wells
> Reserve estimate: 7.4 MMBO, 24.2 BCFG (P50)




Putty said thye have given this before.....but its still a big positive that they have left it in...

Looks like we are going to get dangled like a tea bag all weekend...


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## Miner (29 January 2010)

condog said:


> I dont want to be accused of ramping or starting rumours.
> 
> So you go read the section of todays quarterly activity statement... where GGP put a P50 announcment of 7.4MmBOe on Fause point then come back and tell me what you think....
> 
> ...




Hi Condog

Good point
But why market has failed today to read the news and lift the price instead?

You are one of the key researchers on this scrip and surely would be able to throw some light.

All information available public domain suggest GGP has not lost any lustre but the question remains why GGPO fell so miserably today.


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## Putty7 (29 January 2010)

Miner said:


> Hi Condog
> 
> Good point
> But why market has failed today to read the news and lift the price instead?
> ...




Basically if you are a holder Miner its a matter of waiting for the announcement of the flow rates. After OBJ and BCC fell over recently it shows how fragile these little shares are, a mediocre announcement of the first flow rates as they test wont help VILs SP cause short term, then again a positive announcement will give it some confidence, buy the fact, sell the rumour so to speak. Whatever happens the results will make or break the SP in the short term, traders have been pushing the SP around for months so today is probably no different.


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## condog (29 January 2010)

Miner said:


> Hi Condog
> 
> Good point
> But why market has failed today to read the news and lift the price instead?
> ...




For a few reasons....VIL is not as shiny lately as GGP....but not sure on GGPO, i have not been watching it..

Firstly the entire market is nervy and jittery at present
As putty says little things in these stocks make impatient people sell
GGP has mutiple projects and already has approx 200BOPD revenue
GGP has artificail buying pressure at present due to a few media articlses - shhhhhhh
GGP definitely has an older more conservative bunch of patient shareholders, where as VIL have proven volatile and we have a bunch of short to very short term traders involved, curtousy of the massive volumes over the last 3 weeks...
The VIL short term traders have been more interested in being out rather then in, and they have proven to be very time sensitive...


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## Tommo_Aus (30 January 2010)

Sorting through many of the HC posts there's a bunch of rubbish but one post did draw my attention, then again it could mean nothing. Yesterday the front page of the VIL website was displaying Nickel & Gold prices but now it displays the Oil price instead...


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## condog (31 January 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Sorting through many of the HC posts there's a bunch of rubbish but one post did draw my attention, then again it could mean nothing. Yesterday the front page of the VIL website was displaying Nickel & Gold prices but now it displays the Oil price instead...




No big shakes, thier work experience kid probably fiddled with the html code and inserted the wrong RSS feed...

Im more concerned with what thecompletion / testing rig guys are up to...
By my clacs when we wake monday morning this rig will have been on site somewhere between 3 and 4 full days which is adequate to have some good data on the bottom target... not enough for a 3 day flare if its all gas...but damn close..

If full disclosure is fair dinkum and no one has an advantage we should definitely be getting an announcment of some sort tommorrow morning on the opening....Even its just to say oil in bottom target didnt flow and we are now testing a few meters up for gas.......or ... we are in the processw of flare off....or we have choke on and are getting blah at blah pressure....

But fact is theres data out there somewhere by now and i for 1 will be expecting to have it disclosed ...before 10am monday...

There is no data on any websites or reports yet but for sure the testing rig folks, company folks and and folks they are talking to would know by know whats happening...


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## pilots (31 January 2010)

They will know 15 minutes after they have perforated the hole if it is good or not, they won't know how good it will be, but they will know if it is a duster. If its good you will see the buy side go up, if its bad you will see it crash. It is very hard to keep good news, or bad news on the lease, now the only time I have seen a rig keep it in hand is when you are out of reach of any of the phone towers. How ever to you have sat phones, so info can still get out. You will find that the three day flare is for the whole of the testing program, most palaces in the USA to day you can only test in to a pipe line.


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## Putty7 (31 January 2010)

pilots said:


> They will know 15 minutes after they have perforated the hole if it is good or not, they won't know how good it will be, but they will know if it is a duster. If its good you will see the buy side go up, if its bad you will see it crash. It is very hard to keep good news, or bad news on the lease, now the only time I have seen a rig keep it in hand is when you are out of reach of any of the phone towers. How ever to you have sat phones, so info can still get out. You will find that the three day flare is for the whole of the testing program, most palaces in the USA to day you can only test in to a pipe line.




I know where you are coming from Pilots, so many outsiders to leak news, I worked on diamond drill rigs over 10 years ago now and although I wasn't into the stock market then the behaviour you describe went on, geologists causing delays for no real reasons that the driller could fathom, offsiders using the sat phone to ring mates etc etc, the trouble is there is so much artificial stimulation in this share already from traders it's hard to know fact from fiction. I don't like being a bear or the prophet of doom but if VIL has good to outstanding news this week it may be one of the few green lights on the screen.


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## pilots (31 January 2010)

Putty7, What I did not like most is the companies that have what they call feeders, that are people that are feed just a little info from some one on a rig/mine from time to time, the info they get is correct but not real important, but the feeder thinks he is on the inside, then at the end of the well if it is a duster the feeder is told that the well is a ripper but DON'T tell any one, the feeder tells all his mates and up goes the SP, mean time at the rig all the hands are selling. Look how many times you see a SP jump up just b4 they tell you it is a duster. This only happens with the little companies, under 10c, I am NOT saying this is going on at VIL.


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## condog (31 January 2010)

pilots said:


> Putty7, What I did not like most is the companies that have what they call feeders, that are people that are feed just a little info from some one on a rig/mine from time to time, the info they get is correct but not real important, but the feeder thinks he is on the inside, then at the end of the well if it is a duster the feeder is told that the well is a ripper but DON'T tell any one, the feeder tells all his mates and up goes the SP, mean time at the rig all the hands are selling. Look how many times you see a SP jump up just b4 they tell you it is a duster. This only happens with the little companies, under 10c, I am NOT saying this is going on at VIL.




While I have no doubt this is the case a asx announcment of the magnitude put out by VIL director, confirmed elsehwere is an extremely different situation....drilling logs indicate aame as announcments...

Pilots your right tao say this, but not in this thread, theres no justification for that whatsoever in here....  Im not saying it cant happen, but such pesimism based on "0" really is unfair to the efforts this mob have put in, the the established resources in the area, to the shareholders who have backed the thing for good reasons.....Please provide some evidence for what you are saying , else we have no choice to say its just pesimism...and investing and pesimism dont mix...


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## pilots (31 January 2010)

Condog, ""Drilling logs indicate the same as the announcements"", you are 100% correct, but we now have to wait for the flow test, this is the ONLY way you get to know what they have, now if it is a duster they will know in  15 minutes from the start of each test. Most times the best is at the bottom, so as you move up the hole your chances drop off, how ever, look at AZZ. they did produce from the bottom zone for some time, they now are producing from the primary zone now. Should they tell us more testing is required, will do a side tract, need more wells to see how big the field is, and they have NOT told us the flow rates, the PSI, or the choke size, I would drop them like a hot potato. Don't forget that all most every well that is drilled, is tested at the end, HOW MANY OF THEM EVER ARE COMMERCIAL???


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## condog (1 February 2010)

We should know something today....day 3- 4 of testing??

An announcment of some sort is due / overdue today.....however having said that GGP have proven to be super conservative in delivery of information....

Comsec has just rest and no announcments yet....but its middle of night in Perth at company HQ right now..... 

Im expecting huge volatitlity and volume on this now till the news comes through....


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## pilots (1 February 2010)

Condog, have a look at AZZ this morning, read the report, thats how it is done, you have the PSI, the choke size, the flow rate, the grade of the Oil, and how many wells are planned.


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## condog (1 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Condog, have a look at AZZ this morning, read the report, thats how it is done, you have the PSI, the choke size, the flow rate, the grade of the Oil, and how many wells are planned.




True Pilots - Im actually in AZZ and this is a very positive announcment, doen in a good timeframe, exactly how you want all of them done... its the benchmark....


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## pilots (1 February 2010)

I did think it would have made 70c this morning, looks like we will have to wait for more wells to come on line, cant see us getting a dividend until they have at least ten wells producing full time. I have been waiting for years so whats one more year.


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## condog (1 February 2010)

No annoucment and i never thought ide be saying it, but in hindsight probably a damn good thing....several stock i hold had very positve announcments today and where still punished by the bears.....


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## condog (1 February 2010)

No annoucment and i never thought ide be saying it, but in hindsight probably a damn good thing....several stock i hold had very positve announcments today and where still punished by the bears.....

Even AZZ which as pilots said today had great news, as did ADI / AUT AMI's and they all suffered most the day..... the bears where active...be nice to have the bulls back soon wouldnt it...


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## Putty7 (2 February 2010)

condog said:


> No annoucment and i never thought ide be saying it, but in hindsight probably a damn good thing....several stock i hold had very positve announcments today and where still punished by the bears.....
> 
> Even AZZ which as pilots said today had great news, as did ADI / AUT AMI's and they all suffered most the day..... the bears where active...be nice to have the bulls back soon wouldnt it...




AZZ have already had a significant rise recently through from October but mainly in December and early January, they traded roughly 2.1 million shares today ( worth roughly $1.4 mil ) on a good announcement and finished in the red, they have a market cap of 158 million and shareholder value of 2.5 million so I am assuming some of the spec value was already built into the price before the announcement and the down market didn't help.

VIL built slightly after christmas on the first HydroCarbons announcement but has been punished by traders with a slump after it achieves a positive announcement rise, it hasnt been allowed to build like AZZ did, no announcement today and still finished positive with 34 million shares traded ( roughlly $1.5 mil ), when the announcement comes there is a lot of interest already in this share as a spec and the value will be added or subtracted in my opinion when investors can see fact from fiction.


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## condog (3 February 2010)

They havent even started testing yet.....WTF are these guys doing....they must be bottom of the cue in terms of getting rigs on site .....

Anyway thats my rant....they are testing this weekend.....

I got all excited when i saw the announcment box come up....but damn....
They win the academy award for slowest well testers this year....


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## Tommo_Aus (3 February 2010)

I was excited as well but when I read the announcement... it didn't exactly say anything new. I wouldn't be too concerned tho, at least we know the testing is definately commencing this time.


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## pilots (3 February 2010)

It could have been they was waiting on the test rig, all so when you rig up a test rig, you test EVERY thing on the rig first, don't want any thing to fail when they are half way in to a test. If they have any thing in the well it has been down the hole a long time, so one more week wont hurt it.


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## doyoureallycare (3 February 2010)

remember in the investor presentation, 20c min base case!!! so these prices are very good considering that.

40c upside case!


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## Putty7 (3 February 2010)

Wasn't much of an announcement Condog but if look on the bright side, you don't have to sit there for the rest of the week waiting for an announcement on open that wasn't coming lol


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## condog (3 February 2010)

doyoureallycare said:


> remember in the investor presentation, 20c min base case!!! so these prices are very good considering that.
> 
> 40c upside case!




Yeh thats what ive been saying for 3 weeks... I havent lost site of the upside here....just damn frustrated with the speed or lack there of....

IMO they have already stated "this is the best possible outcome investors could have wished for" indicating they think we are heading for 20-40c range, irrespective of whether its this well or the next....

IMO they think there is commercially viable gas or oil or both on this tenement , hence the acerage increase....and progression of sales plans....

Traders are back in huge time this afternoon so any change in possible timeline will see some nervous exiters.....

Yeh true putty...its good to know...(that bottom line keeps jumping by a lot putty...)

Enjoy the roller coaster of emotions and wealth


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## wanlad1 (4 February 2010)

VIL broke out of a cup and handle pattern on the 8th of Jan on a strong volume day. Depth of the cup from .016 to the top .04 gives a .024 difference. initial target is calculated by adding the .024 to the .04 = .064

Yesterday after twice failing to break through .05 on the 12th & 28th Jan finally broke through .05 (note on high volume) from a smaller cup & handle pattern. It is worthy to note that this second cup and handle pattern is also shaping to be an ascending triangle, very bullish.

After yesterdays move, a consolidation day following conquering the .05 zone. Closed at .051 only 590,000 shares as traders closed out.

From the charts there are 2 targets the first being .064 calculated from the cup and handle (see chart). This is target is also supported if you calculate the smaller cup & handle which I have not marked but easy to see.

There is however another pattern emerged an ascending triangle, the depth .022 calculated by the higherst point .05 (rough) taking the lowest point .028 = .022. Add the .022 to .05 gives a target of .072

Charts are a picture of what is happening and price targets can be assumed but not guaranteed, however the price itself is driven by fundamentals, anns and world markets. These events leave a foot print which chartists try to make sense of.

Description of both cup & handle plus acsending triangles can be found in links below. They are both bullish patterns!

http://www.chartpatterns.com/ascendingtriangles.htm

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_cont


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## late_start (5 February 2010)

Just want to say thanks.
Jumping in @.035 & @0.037 in January.  Not much but enough to make me sitting in happily and wait comfortably. Thanks to this forum, mainly to condog, putty7, and pilots also the rest of you guys and girls.  Your comments, research, and explanation are very helpful.  Thank you all............:


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## GaryS (5 February 2010)

Got this off HC.

This website allows you to query every well drilled in Louisiana. Just submit a search on parish of Iberia (Fausse Point is in this district) and this provides the complete history. Interesting that two holes were drilled within 15m of each other...one was dry and the other was a producer.
The producer was 685m west of FP#1 and the dry hole 700m west

http://sonris-www.dnr.state.la.us/www_root/sonris_portal_1.htm

On the left click on "Sonris Lite"

than wells by serial number

serial number 240087 for "our" well

The co ordinates are listed if you would like to pin point the well using google earth, which I will do later.


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## condog (5 February 2010)

No worries but make sure you DYOR and seek expert advice...as we are not brokers or advisors....

Anyone whos holding today be very aware that any time from Mondays open onwards is a likely announcment.... That announcment is IMO likely to cause sudden share price movement either up or down....

IMO If its negative it wont dramatically change the value of the underlying company and assets but it will change the time frames and that IMO will see an over reaction down as investors with short time frames look to get out.... 

If its good IMO it will change the value of the company...to reflect a PE multiple of the commercial volume.... eg as a very rough example, if its producing $1m net gas after costs per annum at a PE of 15 it adds approx $15m to mcap = approx 3.5c per share per $1m net gas......

Some folks would leave it at that, but the market would generally also begin to price some success into future wells... eg: perhaps a 20% premium or so on future wells within 6-12 months....

For me i would build in a safety margin and operate on a PE of 8 - 10

This is very very very  rough so DYOR and seek expert advice..... 

AS my rough guide id be expecting around 2- 5c per share based on each $1m net gas per annum ....so if it looks like its going to flow $15m net gas per annum @ PE of 8 =120M / 480m shares & opts = approx = up by approx 25c per share

Again i emphasise these are very rough, they are not cross checked, and i am not a borker or advisor.... I put this here to help others and to have my info cross checked....DYOR , seek expert advice



GaryS said:


> Interesting that two holes were drilled within 15m of each other...one was dry and the other was a producer. The producer was 685m west of FP#1 and the dry hole 700m west




Yes this astounds me and i often get worried when they drill to close to non-producers, but it seems to happen very often....


Be warned some codes in sonris can be misleading to an untrained eye...so be cautios of jumping to massive conclusions till the company makes an announcment...There is a sonris glossary that will help and you will also need to google other terms...

Thanks wanladi for your technical analysis


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## Putty7 (5 February 2010)

condog said:


> Yeh thats what ive been saying for 3 weeks... I havent lost site of the upside here....just damn frustrated with the speed or lack there of....
> 
> IMO they have already stated "this is the best possible outcome investors could have wished for" indicating they think we are heading for 20-40c range, irrespective of whether its this well or the next....
> 
> ...




When they made this announcement I wondered if the boys and girls might go for one last pump and dump given the result was at least 3 trading days away, hopefully it will hold above .05c on close to give us a springboard for the flow rates announcement but looking at todays line up for the open nothing is set in stone. 

While I was annoyed by the delay, one thing that impresses me is they haven't rushed things, so easy to do when the adenaline is up, it shows they have a good crew on site and a few level heads in management, better to consider all available information and get things right the first time and reduce the risk of cost over runs and having stuff ups. 

Kindee Oil and Gas Louisiana (the company doing the drilling) is a subsiduary of GGP so the professionalism shown reflects over the lot of them and bodes well for the future of success on the project. You can bet we won't have problems obtaining a rig if and when they want the next well sunk.

As for the flow rates announcement lets hope Monday will give us some indications.


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## pilots (5 February 2010)

*Re: VAIL - Virus Investments*

Con dog, We have drilled on a producing field that had 5 pump jacks all around us, we got a duster. This is VERY common if you have any fault lines around you. Look at GDN, the last well they drilled they hit a fault line and the whole formation changed,  however this well they are drilling is at the top of the zone and they should be lucky this time, third time lucky maybe. Just look at Bass straight, so many dusters. Never forget when you drill a well, YOU WONT KNOW UNTIL YOU FLOW.


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## condog (5 February 2010)

Yeh Pilots thats what i was sought of getting at, although im a lot more optimistic on some projects over others... eg here for gas and the eagle ford and bakken shales for both gas and oil....  not saying every hole will come up trumps, but the probability is certainly better...

Putty .....Yeh we need a real good platform to launch from and touch wood in a sea of red lemmings we are currently black and  holding 5c which is a great vote of confidence by the market... and the VIL traders / holders....

IMO I wouldnt be surprised if we spend some / all the afternoon in the green, as people raise there exposure to a likely announcment one way or the other next week...

-270 on the DJIA is a huge tide to swim against, but givin its currently holding its a very good sign...


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## Solitus (5 February 2010)

Useful technical analysis Wanladi.

Today's trading looks to support the cup and handle nicely, and I couldn't resist picking up a parcel at 5c this morning, taking my average up to 4.2c.

Thanks to all for this informative thread - I'm learning a fair bit here about napkin valuations of prospecting stocks, and adding some TA learnings to the event is also great.




wanlad1 said:


> Yesterday after twice failing to break through .05 on the 12th & 28th Jan finally broke through .05 (note on high volume) from a smaller cup & handle pattern. It is worthy to note that this second cup and handle pattern is also shaping to be an ascending triangle, very bullish.


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## condog (5 February 2010)

*Re: VAIL - Virus Investments*



pilots said:


> Con dog, We have drilled on a producing field that had 5 pump jacks all around us, we got a duster. This is VERY common if you have any fault lines around you. Look at GDN, the last well they drilled they hit a fault line and the whole formation changed,  however this well they are drilling is at the top of the zone and they should be lucky this time, third time lucky maybe. Just look at Bass straight, so many dusters. Never forget when you drill a well, YOU WONT KNOW UNTIL YOU FLOW.




Yeh on the flip side some times it takes a few dusters to teach companies where to drill.... GDN seems to fit that bill... they are learning more about the formations with each drill... as they actual hit pay they will learn a lot more....which is exactly what they seem to be doing here....

Mate ide ram the thing down to the middle of the primary and tap the thing id have 18 days worth of pay banked by now.....but more patient conservative operators like GGP seem to like to take there time on these things, and as putty has said... in the long term they will probalby save a lot of money / make a lot more and save a lot of errors along the way....


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## condog (5 February 2010)

Good buy volumes mounting for a strong finish... hopefully a rebound on wall street + the oil price + some news all lining up nicely...

VIL the only green stock on alll my watch lists


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## Putty7 (5 February 2010)

condog said:


> Good buy volumes mounting for a strong finish... hopefully a rebound on wall street + the oil price + some news all lining up nicely...
> 
> VIL the only green stock on alll my watch lists




I've got about 50 - 60 different stocks on the lists and not many green lights have survived the last few weeks, good if you are thinking of re-entering some of them soon I guess.

Good finish to the week at .052c, VIL will move either way on it's own strength regardless of the market etc Condog, just think if the market is down and they have a good announcement, the more spec money will look to get on rather than go elsewhere. 

The catalyst will be if *Oil and Gas* flow commercially, Gas would be ok but both is better, they appear to be bullish with the previous announcements that it could, but until it comes up in an announcement confirming it we have to wait.

GGP made a bullish move since the drill completed, farming in to a nearby block for 50 percent. The acquisition of the nearby land to cover this resource also indicates it may have been bigger than first thought.

In the end there is a lot of speculation going on, until it is confirmed by testing its a moot point for investors and holders alike. Hopefully next week will end the waiting game.


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## condog (7 February 2010)

I agree putty the last GGP announcment about Silverwood acquisition is extremely bullish..... $600,000 farm in.... " adds high impact exploration with near term upside  to the current Fausse Point project"

This shows an incredible confidence by GGP that they are onto something in this area...thye obviously feel they are here now and with there people on the ground they can get some near term up side and sysnergies from multiple projects in the area.....

If they thought Fausse point was a duster they would not have acquired the 80 acres or this $600,000  project.....


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## condog (8 February 2010)

Massively Positive News - Its Not Commercial Yet - These Are Fantastic Indications - And These Guys Are Being Super Careful


> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1
> well at Fausse Point has begun testing the initial zone of interest in the lowest of three identified hydrocarbon
> formations. Perforation of this first zone of interest resulted in an immediate pressure build at the surface.
> The pressure increased as the well bore liquid was unloaded (produced) and gas was registered at the
> ...


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## rabbit59 (8 February 2010)

Condog, this was released a couple of days ago.... but i think there is something on the way this morning 

GET READY PEOPLE.....


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## Tommo_Aus (8 February 2010)

Must be a different announcement to what I'm reading!!!



> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to advise the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1
> well at Fausse Point has begun testing the initial zone of interest in the lowest of three identified hydrocarbon
> formations. Perforation of this first zone of interest resulted in an immediate pressure build at the surface.
> The pressure increased as the well bore liquid was unloaded (produced) and gas was registered at the
> ...




OIL!!!!

Blah blah message too short. Still too short.


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## rabbit59 (8 February 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Must be a different announcement to what I'm reading!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




YEP just read that one also  very good news indeed... !! 
will be interesting to see what the market makes of this.... 'DISCOVERY'


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## Putty7 (8 February 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Must be a different announcement to what I'm reading!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Definately a good sign after the initial perforation, once again we wait for the flow rates but it looks like they may come this week and with Oil and Gas free flowing, if they are in commercial volumes it is the best outcome we could have hoped for lol


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## condog (8 February 2010)

There oil in them there non-hills folks and its flowing to the surface......

The oil may still yet not be commercial,,but thats one more massive notch on the belt.....

Yet again we wait......as putty says....to date this is the best possible news investors could possibly have wished for............

Buy volumes building nicely and indicative open now at 0.056......i think today might test some holders patience and turn them into traders as they see a few short term dollar signs.....on the flip side it may also bring in some very serious big players, now there is some more indications of oil....

Interesting week ahead ......grab some popcorn folks...


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## Tommo_Aus (8 February 2010)

Looking at the market depth one seller is willing to part with 60000 @ 4.5c. One has to ask, why would you want to sell at this price by this stage? Not sure what the open will be, too many number to try and predict but 6.5c is looking strong on the buy side and each time I refresh there are less sellers  Good luck all.


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## condog (8 February 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Looking at the market depth one seller is willing to part with 60000 @ 4.5c. One has to ask, why would you want to sell at this price by this stage? Not sure what the open will be, too many number to try and predict but 6.5c is looking strong on the buy side and each time I refresh there are less sellers  Good luck all.




They are called tree shakers.....he actually wants the price to go down either cause he has some option play happening or he wants to buy VIL FPO shares....

ignore them....likewise theres a 0.70 buy which ignore..... just look for the real volumes.....and the indicative price.....

Its why the asx uses a 4 setp process to open and close the market...


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## Tommo_Aus (8 February 2010)

condog said:


> ignore them....likewise theres a 0.70 buy which ignore..... just look for the real volumes.....and the indicative price.....




7c doesn't look like an ignore anymore, didn't think I'd be saying this so soon but 6.5/6.6 looks to be good support!


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## condog (8 February 2010)

VIL in its investor presentation estimated commercial viability was looking like sp worth 20-40c with possible upside from that...... id imagine full fruition of commercial viability with the additional 80 acres will eventually take it well beyond that if its flowing crude as well.....IMHO its now looking like this may well be better then first thought.....as i was banking all my intial calcs predominantly on dry gas, without condensate and without flowing crude....

If we get an announcment this week that this thing is flowing crude and gas i think IMO (DYOR and seek expert advice) expect an accelerated drilling schedule to be announced not to far after 

That being the case the full commercial value of the project becomes lower risk and accelerated, adding more value....

IMO within a month we will be 20c+ if this thing is commercial...especially if it has sweet sweet crude flowing..
Definitely DYOR and seek expert advice...this is inherintly a risky business to be in...


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## condog (8 February 2010)

Ive been watching the course of trades on vil. In the last hour the volumes have changed , where as the last few days the biggest trades where predominently 12,000 - 20,000.... theres pretty regular 30-50K trades now...and some are simultaneous, possibly indicating some big players coming in with several hundred thousand...


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## condog (8 February 2010)

A bloody good platform to launch from when the possible announcemnt comes through.... and so it ought to... with each successive sign, risk is reduced and the probability of profit is increased....

I still reckon its dirt cheap....even at todays price...

That bottom line must be looking good for some of you long term holders....WOW a good day....heres to more like that in the very near term...


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## stretchie (8 February 2010)

I'm holding like grim death onto my VILO options. Each passing day takes another larger chunk of time value out of what I hold but the closer we get to a commercial announcement I can see a 12 month holiday in South America becoming a reality. 

My oh my how I'd love for VIL to be 40c by June. Don't think it'll happen but I could pay off all my personal debt and buy a new car  Condog by the sound of the mammoth position you're holding you'd just about be able to retire on a 40c VIL SP ?


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## condog (8 February 2010)

stretchie said:


> I'm holding like grim death onto my VILO options. Each passing day takes another larger chunk of time value out of what I hold but the closer we get to a commercial announcement I can see a 12 month holiday in South America becoming a reality.
> 
> My oh my how I'd love for VIL to be 40c by June. Don't think it'll happen but I could pay off all my personal debt and buy a new car  Condog by the sound of the mammoth position you're holding you'd just about be able to retire on a 40c VIL SP ?




Yep 25c would see me never have to work again...  lets hope ey.......i dont like counting chickens before its kfc, but... every day it seems closer and closer.... and to me the value is rapidly appearing.....and sp have a tendency to eventually locate fair value....

At 7mmboe its valued at $7.35 net per barrell this thing has the potential for 10+mmboe if it averages the other tenements + the gas so looking at it that way 40c is not that far away if this well is commercial.....  my problem and that of a few other big holders in here will be unloading without giving it all to the tax man..... its a nice problem to have, but still a problem none the less.....


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## sjx (8 February 2010)

condog said:


> my problem and that of a few other big holders in here will be unloading without giving it all to the tax man..... its a nice problem to have, but still a problem none the less.....





Haha..


Yes.. yes.. I've been thinking the exact same thing lately.. and have been trying to come up with some ideas, lol..


Regards
sjx


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## condog (8 February 2010)

sjx said:


> Haha..
> Yes.. yes.. I've been thinking the exact same thing lately.. and have been trying to come up with some ideas, lol..
> Regards
> sjx




I think i may offload enough to make it pay day, then hold more till July 1 this year and some till july 1 the following, with the remainder for keeps.....
Luckily i fully anticipated this might happen and split my holdings in a few different accounts..../ structures....


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## sjx (8 February 2010)

condog said:


> I think i may offload enough to make it pay day, then hold more till July 1 this year and some till july 1 the following, with the remainder for keeps.....
> Luckily i fully anticipated this might happen and split my holdings in a few different accounts..../ structures....




Well thats a very smart way of doing things.. that works quite well. Only factor is the time.. impatience would get the better of me!

I only have a target price in mind of 20c or so, so I would be offloading at least 80% to keep with the trading plan.. that leaves a massive tax bill.. and not much for me to claim against it.. BUT i will think of something.

like yourself, i am well diversified between accounts. maybe a new car, that i claim back as business use LOL


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## Atlas79 (9 February 2010)

condog said:


> Yep 25c would see me never have to work again...  lets hope ey.......i dont like counting chickens before its kfc, but... every day it seems closer and closer.... and to me the value is rapidly appearing.....and sp have a tendency to eventually locate fair value....
> 
> At 7mmboe its valued at $7.35 net per barrell this thing has the potential for 10+mmboe if it averages the other tenements + the gas so looking at it that way 40c is not that far away if this well is commercial.....  my problem and that of a few other big holders in here will be unloading without giving it all to the tax man..... its a nice problem to have, but still a problem none the less.....




For your sake I hope this eventuates (and mine, since I hold  ) but I'm curious to ask - if this isn't too much of a derail of the thread - what would you do in such circumstance? Pick less risky investments, cease investing altogether, or is the thrill of the hunt one of the main points to it all?

(Or option 4: "none of your business Atlas!" )


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## condog (9 February 2010)

Small bit in cash, most in lower risk higher mcap stocks like JBH, CBA, WOW etc....about 20-30% chasing small caps like AUT, TON, SEA etc... I couldnt affor to retire if it was in cash as you lose 30%+ in tax....so income needs to come from fully franked divs....


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## condog (9 February 2010)

Hey folks we are lookin like hitting 10c prior to the announcment....sell volumes are drying up which is a good thing... so damn big plays strating to happen as well.....


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## Putty7 (9 February 2010)

condog said:


> Hey folks we are lookin like hitting 10c prior to the announcment....sell volumes are drying up which is a good thing... so damn big plays strating to happen as well.....




Fair bit of excitement going on today isn't there, if it is commercial I'm thinking my initial get out figure of .10c may have been a bit underdone, .083c at time of writing and seems to be looking to hold under large buying pressure over .08c, all this could change by days end but I'm starting to wish I had gotten into some oppies at .007c/.008c when the chance was there as well.

If the well is commercial the only dampener left may be a Cap raising, but if the oppies hit their strike price of .10c which does look now to be a very real chance, then the last hurdle for the SP in the short term may be gone.


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## Atlas79 (9 February 2010)

In the 1st 10 minutes of trading today there were more than a dozen sellers for under .07c. Those parcels got snapped up FAST, as in one click of refresh later, they were gone...

Comsec "market watch" has it #1 for the day so far on volume...


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## McCoy Pauley (9 February 2010)

Peaked about 25 minutes ago at 8.8c per share but it's fallen back to 8.1c per share now, probably due to a few profit takers downsizing their holdings.


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## condog (9 February 2010)

Pretty impressive volumes.....some of these buyers are not kidding around thats for sure..... 

Hopefully the real volume will sneak in after lunch like yesterday....when the big players get back in town....so to speak...


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## McCoy Pauley (9 February 2010)

Top stock by volume in the morning, with just over 195 million shares trading hands.  With 630 million shares on issue, 30% of the issued shares changed hands in the morning.


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## Tommo_Aus (9 February 2010)

Christ, that makes 9c already. So glad I made it in early and have held onto my shares 

Wonder if we'll see the magical 10c today?


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## condog (9 February 2010)

9.5c ....bloody beautiful....clearly the indication of oil flowing to the surface has raised a lot of eyebrows and perhaps a re-rating by many of the entire tenement.....

Theres lots of speculators, traters in and churning, but theres also some massive buyers from time to time....

No harm in taking a small part profit as insurance, but man imagine if a commercial viability announcment comes.....25c is looking easy peasy from here.....


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## kurtneverdied (9 February 2010)

Can some please explain a little about VILO .025 price vs VIL at .085.

I don't know much about options at all, just interested to know for the future.

Say a bought $1000 worth at .025 what would the potential price rewards vs pitfalls be of VILO.

I know there is a date of july 1 being discussed and an exit price of .10.

Can anyone explain this simply.

Cheers.


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## spandex (9 February 2010)

Im kicking myself about Vilo, I sold $1500 in shares at .010 to help someone out with some money (sold my cheapest stock holding) to wake up this morning to see it peak at .030 a share.


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## Risenow (9 February 2010)

VILs dropping now... .077 why? any ideas as to what's happened?

The upwards trend looked quite positive with larger buy-ins and then it just petered out. Am I missing something..


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## Putty7 (9 February 2010)

Risenow said:


> VILs dropping now... .077 why? any ideas as to what's happened?
> 
> The upwards trend looked quite positive with larger buy-ins and then it just petered out. Am I missing something..




Whats to miss, no announcements. Its just typical behaviour of this share as the bigger traders push it around to get what they need done for the day. It's done it since December so no reason for things to change now lol, the only thing that has helped the SP is the derisking of the share is forcing buyers to make the price rather than push it down on open. Just my opinions mind you and I could be wrong, would be nice to see a trading halt on open tomorrow and see a few fingers get burnt though.


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## skyQuake (9 February 2010)

Risenow said:


> VILs dropping now... .077 why? any ideas as to what's happened?
> 
> The upwards trend looked quite positive with larger buy-ins and then it just petered out. Am I missing something..




Plenty of profit takers i'd imagine. It had a huge run and sooner or later it will turn. ..at least till more news comes out, imo too many ppl are already long for the news. 500 Mil shares traded out of a total issue of 630mil, looks a bit too much like stopping volume.


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## spandex (9 February 2010)

I cant find any news or info on their a jointing company VILO.

can anyone tell me about them? and how if anything they have an effect on each other.


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## McCoy Pauley (9 February 2010)

spandex said:


> I cant find any news or info on their a jointing company VILO.
> 
> can anyone tell me about them? and how if anything they have an effect on each other.




VILO is the ASX stock code for options over VIL shares.  Have a look through this thread and you'll find a few posts about them.  Personally, as I don't understand the way in which options work on the ASX, I don't trade options on any company's shares.


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## Tommo_Aus (9 February 2010)

spandex said:


> I cant find any news or info on their a jointing company VILO.




If your new to the market it would be a good idea to wait until you understand how the basics work before looking at the options trade. You could potentially lose everything, high risk. Also, your broker will most likely require forms to be signed and mailed to them before allowing you to trade options.

Am I the only one thinking there was some market manipulation today? There looked to be large sells at market price, quickly weakening the SP and triggering stops. Would be a good way to accumulate a larger holding at a lower price by playing the cascading effect of stops to your advantage. Looks like it worked.


----------



## doyoureallycare (9 February 2010)

Looks to be all good with this stock but I sold half my holdings today and put it into ARX & i'm free carried on VIL


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## spandex (9 February 2010)

Is Vilo the big brother of VIL tho?

I have been searching but with out any luck,Sorry for the noob q's


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## condog (9 February 2010)

Profit takers and traders exiting.... lots dont like sleeping on a stock....

Well done to all long term holders......as i said in early January this is a classic risk reward trade off..... those of you who took the risk are now being duly rewarded...... but we aint over the line yet so cover your **** any wayt you feel you need to......

Sleep tight all.....hopefully we wake up to a rip snorter of an announcment and end all the speculation.....

They definitely win slowest commercial announcment ever now....but id rather that then a blowout or accident....

Miner et al any of you miners care to speculate why they stopped so long...


----------



## Putty7 (9 February 2010)

condog said:


> Profit takers and traders exiting.... lots dont like sleeping on a stock....
> 
> Well done to all long term holders......as i said in early January this is a classic risk reward trade off..... those of you who took the risk are now being duly rewarded...... but we aint over the line yet so cover your **** any wayt you feel you need to......
> 
> ...




I'm far from an expert Condog but getting a consistent flow rate may take a bit of time, the initial pressure will be high but should drop over time to a steadier flow, different chokes may need to be tried to get the best pressure and flow rate mix for a daily average production level, worst case scenario it might not be commercial but lets not open that can of worms. They will release it when they are ready so don't worry, same story, traders push it around while we wait, we all speculate on whats going on, end of the day patience is all that is required, good or bad we will know soon enough.


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## Putty7 (9 February 2010)

spandex said:


> Is Vilo the big brother of VIL tho?
> 
> I have been searching but with out any luck,Sorry for the noob q's




No VIL are the heads, VILO are the options. Same company. The options have a strike price of .10c by the end of June, hence if the heads don't hit .10c by then you may lose the lot as they expire or become worth nothing closer to expire date. I am not an expert, Skyquake or someone better educated would be able to answer this with more definition.


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## rabbit59 (9 February 2010)

doyoureallycare said:


> Looks to be all good with this stock but I sold half my holdings today and put it into ARX & i'm free carried on VIL




I also am free carried on VIL good choice I believe...means no matter which way this ann goes..its all good 

All the best to all holders


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## skyQuake (9 February 2010)

Yeh the oppies give you the right to pay the company 10c to purchase fully paid ordinary shares. 
Right now the oppies are around 2c because people think there is a potential for VIL to be over and above 12c by June expiry. (pay 2c for the option and 10c exercising the oppies for your share)
However by June if VIL is not above 10c the options will be worthless.


----------



## Bull(ish) (9 February 2010)

On Sky Business tonight, the experts declared that " judging by that chart, if you aren't onboard yet, you're too late"... haven't we all known that for a while ?? :
Good luck to all holders over the coming days!


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## Putty7 (10 February 2010)

skyQuake said:


> Yeh the oppies give you the right to pay the company 10c to purchase fully paid ordinary shares.
> Right now the oppies are around 2c because people think there is a potential for VIL to be over and above 12c by June expiry. (pay 2c for the option and 10c exercising the oppies for your share)
> However by June if VIL is not above 10c the options will be worthless.




Cheers for that Skyquake, I thought I was right but when defining things to other new traders best left to people who actually have more knowledge lol.

The open is looking good again for a rise.


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## Atlas79 (10 February 2010)

> On Sky Business tonight, the experts declared that " judging by that chart, if you aren't onboard yet, you're too late"... haven't we all known that for a while ??




Dunno about that... I got on at .039 but no way I'm selling yet, would certainly be getting more if I had funds free.


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## condog (10 February 2010)

Its getting a lot of media attention due to high volumes, which can only serve to help if the announcment is great....as it will be on a lot more peoples charts and any over supply of buyers is likely to push the reaction in sp higher.....

Lots of profit takers in this morning or day traders getting out


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## condog (10 February 2010)

Re-read the announcment its better then i first thought...it doesnt prove anything in terms of commercial significance of this well, but from GGP who have proven to be super conservative and hold there cards very close to their chest this is pretty up beat...





I think some of these people selling today will very much regret that decision in coming weeks....


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## DeCal (10 February 2010)

The biggest overriding question is, do I stick to my plan and keep X% of my portfolio in VIL? Or give in to the greed feeling and sell some under performing stocks and dump in more cash?

This is sounding very optimistic.


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## Atlas79 (10 February 2010)

DeCal said:


> The biggest overriding question is, do I stick to my plan and keep X% of my portfolio in VIL? Or give in to the greed feeling and sell some under performing stocks and dump in more cash?
> 
> This is sounding very optimistic.




I know the feeling, 0.075 just now has me eyeing off other contenders to sell. The one I would have sold is under a trading halt though : (JPR.)


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## Agentm (10 February 2010)

condog said:


> Re-read the announcment its better then i first thought...it doesnt prove anything in terms of commercial significance of this well, but from GGP who have proven to be super conservative and hold there cards very close to their chest this is pretty up beat...
> 
> View attachment 35747
> 
> ...




condog

Issued Shares:	630,451,589

This Week  	6,597  trades	806,482,085 shares  	$63,596,528 turnover 	0.0950 high 	0.0590 low


in just over 3 days the entire share registry has turned over 1.25 times!!
if you include all the major holders.. if you exclude them then the figure becomes even more alarming

so considering this has happened, are you absolutely certain the share is not just a tad oversold right now?

imho is just the same hc crowd beating up yet another junior explorer and like bcc and gdn, it will leave the share in a sorry and decimated state in the very near future..

any thoughts on this?


----------



## condog (10 February 2010)

Agentm said:


> condog
> 
> Issued Shares:	630,451,589
> 
> ...




iMO its to big a turnover to be anthing related to HC which is just a few people...they have inssuficient funds to be able to even affect these volumes...

IMO irrespective of wehther this well is commercial (& every announcment seems to give more and more signs it might be) the tenement itself is high quality in relation to the market cap of GGP and VIL....

Average out the tenement finds along the other side and these guys should IMO be sitting on 10MMboe plus very significnat gas ,.....but thats only opinion at this stage.... Given they have now located gas and flowing crude / condensate on this side of the dome its more and more likely they will have a very significnat well on there hands somewhere very soon...

Theres no doubt that sort of volume will leave us belted and bruised either up or down....but the underlying value is increasing nicely and the quality of the assett appears to be substantial IMO so the little HC team can do as they please....

I hold - DYOR and seek expert advice - this is inherintly very very risky...


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## Putty7 (10 February 2010)

Agentm said:


> condog
> 
> Issued Shares:	630,451,589
> 
> ...




The volumes on this stock have had daily highs since Christmas when they first hit gas due to it being a good trading stock, stock getting regurgitated over and over to make .001c here and .002c there seem to be normal for this share over the journey and fast rises followed by the SP being beaten down have been a weekly occurence.

The fast rise yesterday to .095c probably helped someone unload their options at .03c as confidence grew as well as unload the shares they had accumulated lower at the top of the SP cycle. 

I am only speculating of course but there was no reason for the fast push to .095c on no news yesterday when investors would prefer to quietly accumulate at lower prices over the day, the only ones who gain from a sharp rise are the traders looking to unload shares at the top of the push and into the over run.

As for the HC crowd lets not even go there.


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## McCoy Pauley (10 February 2010)

Seems to me that a number of day traders are pushing the price around.  The price ran up to $.095 yesterday partly because the market as a whole was down and partly due to people factoring in an announcement on the results of drilling as soon as yesterday.

But no announcement and other sectors and companies looking attractive today has, IMO, seen people take money out of VIL and put it in other companies.


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## Tommo_Aus (10 February 2010)

Fair guess is a large amount of day traders have sold out at market to jump on SSN for the day. They'll be back soon.


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## McCoy Pauley (10 February 2010)

Having a look at the GGP announcement condog posted above, my uneducated guess is that the announcement on the production tests won't be made until early next week.  Testing is be carried out "throughout the week" is the basis for my deduction.  If that's the case, in the absence of news, I think the share price will come down fairly substantially over the course of this risk as the day traders drift away from the company.


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## condog (10 February 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Having a look at the GGP announcement condog posted above, my uneducated guess is that the announcement on the production tests won't be made until early next week.  Testing is be carried out "throughout the week" is the basis for my deduction.  If that's the case, in the absence of news, I think the share price will come down fairly substantially over the course of this risk as the day traders drift away from the company.




Possibly true but be careful of getting caught with your pants down....

*IF it is deemed commercial testing WILL cease early....*

I have just sent GGP a rather direct and possibly somewhat abusive email asing them WTF is going on, that they need to keep the market updated and they need to be more direct about what they think they have..... I will keep you posted... but dont expect a response any time soon...these guys seem to ignore all correspondance...


----------



## johnbatibas (10 February 2010)

I am a pretty new to the world of investing and as such spend a fair bit of time looking for info to help me in my cause. I currently hold VIL - bought at 3.7. I came across some info on another forum regarding short selling and wonder if todays retracement is attributable to this practice - if so I am certainly not a fan of short selling!! The info was sourced from the asx site detailing the gross sales from short selling for yesterday.


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## condog (10 February 2010)

johnbatibas said:


> I am a pretty new to the world of investing and as such spend a fair bit of time looking for info to help me in my cause. I currently hold VIL - bought at 3.7. I came across some info on another forum regarding short selling and wonder if todays retracement is attributable to this practice - if so I am certainly not a fan of short selling!! The info was sourced from the asx site detailing the gross sales from short selling for yesterday.




Dont worry about it..... just focus on whether you think the land at fausse point is viable for oil and gas, whther the company and its operators have the ability and resources to extract it, and the time line for which it might happen.......


----------



## sjx (10 February 2010)

condog said:


> Possibly true but be careful of getting caught with your pants down....
> 
> *IF it is deemed commercial testing WILL cease early....*
> 
> I have just sent GGP a rather direct and possibly somewhat abusive email asing them WTF is going on, that they need to keep the market updated and they need to be more direct about what they think they have..... I will keep you posted... but dont expect a response any time soon...these guys seem to ignore all correspondance...




Condog,

I've found that emailing either GGP or VIL is completely useless..

If you want a to the point, immediate reaction to a query, you should ring them. I have rang them before and they have been pretty good about it.


----------



## condog (11 February 2010)

Be warned the rumour mill has begun...I have no idea if there is any truth either way so i disregard it, which is the importance of companies keeping the market fully updated....  no news leads to this rubbish....and its fed by all sorts of people, some wanting the price to drop so they can buy in, others wanting the price to spike so they can lower their buy price or get free carried...

Im ignoring it till the company comes out with information.... just be cautious as there are all sorts of self serving idiots running around starting or perpetuating rumours just trying to get someone else to start it....

Its pretty easy to have the emotions of greed or fear triggered, so listen with caution and a steady head...or better still dont listen at all...

Please dont ask me to elaborate as i wont , IMO its all garbage anyway...

At the end of the day the facts at hand are

VIL has 50% interest in a good tenement in a known zone
They have intersected gas and oil smears

The gas is very high pressure which delays and complicates testing, due to blowout risks from kicks etc
There are  lots of inherent risks still and dangers while testing 
It is unknown if this well is commercial for oil gas or either or both
Irrespective , They will gather valuable data used to more economically and hastily drill further likely successful wells...to both fully understand the best use of this well and further wells
The data gathered will be useful to investors, financers, JV partners and future drillers

Anything beyond or contrary to that at this stage is all rumour, unless an asx release confirms otherwise

Disc - i own, DYOR, seek expert advice...high risk


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## condog (11 February 2010)

I sent these guys a rather direct email yesterday demanding some quantified data, looks like we now have some

The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at
Fausse Point has recommenced testing the initial zone of interest in the lowest of three identified hydrocarbon
formations. Initial clean up and production testing of this first zone of interest has resulted in good initial flow
rates of gas and condensate. Initial flow rates up to 1.8 million cubic feet of gas per day and 56 barrels of
condensate per day at a 6/64 choke have been recorded. The drawdown and buildup process of testing the
interval at various flow rates and pressures continues in determining the commercial significance of the
interval. This testing process is expected to take a few more days in order to fully test the interval. So far, the
initial results have not provided a definitive result.
The Fausse Point well has encountered three distinct gas and oil formations starting at 7,000 ft. There have
been several zones of interest across all three major formations with indications of hydrocarbons. The lowest
formation includes several zones of interest including the zone just perforated that indicated good
permeability, porosity with oil/condensate recovered in the sample cores and has now flowed hydrocarbons
to surface.
Comments
It is very important to do a thorough review in the initial testing of this first zone of interest prior to
committing to the cost of installing surface facilities and a gas pipeline. The standard testing sequence takes
several days and it is important to be very thorough in this phase of testing. Extended production testing
operations will be conducted throughout this coming week. If the first zone just tested confirms a commercial
result, testing will cease and preparations will begin to bring the well onto production.


----------



## condog (11 February 2010)

These idiots are all jumping ship

IMO this will be commercial... its on a very small choke for safety reasons...

Sundance had higher development costs and commercialised several wells with 1mmcf/d , no condensate with a <24 month pay back...

This rate is nothing like the eagleford, but niether are the  costs or market caps.... 

Given they have many wells to follow, small pipeline expenses I think they will go ahead

They may need to look at fraccing to get some better flow rates, 

The market obviously either thinks differently or they are short termers again jumping out....

This is a very positive result, remembr this is only the first well, its on a small choke and it has not been cleaned up ...... its early days and IMO fantastically positive...

Theres a fair bit of tree shaking happening trying to lower the price that will most likely dispate immediately prior to open as well...


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## McCoy Pauley (11 February 2010)

Very conservative announcement, IMO.  GGP (and VIL) doing its best to keep the market informed but it's along the lines of "don't call us, we'll call you when we have news" announcement.


----------



## Tommo_Aus (11 February 2010)

Open looks errrr... interesting. Wonder if it will be an early but temporary panic sell or if it'll last for a lot longer.


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## swans05 (11 February 2010)

how low will vil go today, and is it a great opportunity to buy in at a cheaper price again?? the buyers are disappearing fast....


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## Putty7 (11 February 2010)

condog said:


> I sent these guys a rather direct email yesterday demanding some quantified data, looks like we now have some
> 
> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at
> Fausse Point has recommenced testing the initial zone of interest in the lowest of three identified hydrocarbon
> ...




A 6/64 choke is a bit over 2mm wide, so even though the SP will get hammered today it is just one of the initial chokes used and larger sizes will be utilized as testing continues to see if the well can sustain a larger flow while maintaining pressure up to it, just goes to show why when they test a hole they don't usually release results until the end of testing, the market isn't responding well to the announcement.


----------



## Risenow (11 February 2010)

hmm looks like indicative price will drop to 5c, I'm wondering whether it would be a better idea to jump ship or buy in more..

they've been saying: This testing process is expected to take a few more days in order to fully test the interval. So far, *the initial results have not provided a definitive result*.

so much risk at this point. It could definately go either way but I'm not sure it will jump up again as before since that seemed to be a lot of short term dealers. Couldn't see many big buys. I take it you're holding on for the remainder of this wild ride Condog?


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## McCoy Pauley (11 February 2010)

Interesting to compare GGP's announcement with RRS' announcement in December 2009 of its discovery in Texas.  RRS announced that it drilled and logged the Smith #1 well to a depth of 4,260 metres and unloaded the well on a 6/64 choke until gas reached the surface, then opened to a 10/64 choke for 5 hours to clean up the well.  Despite the small choke size, the average rate during that period was 2.4 million cubic feet of gas and 191 barrels of oil per day with no water.  Final flowing casing pressure was 6,354 psi.

Compare this with the initial results from GGP's tests and there's certainly a sizable difference on the oil produced and the gas is a little short of what was declared by RRS to be a commercially producing well.

As I noted earlier, the share prices of both VIL and GGP will be driven down today because GGP's announcement basically amounts to: "we don't know how this well will turn out at this stage.  Signs look good but we can't be definite".


----------



## Atlas79 (11 February 2010)

I don't know why such large numbers of people should be spooked off by the announcement. They haven't yet confirmed best case scenario but nor have they retracted from anything said up to this point that would have motivated someone to buy in the first place...


----------



## DeCal (11 February 2010)

Bought in at 0.08 sold at 0.047 and it's heading north slowly. No idea where it'll head today, better be south to make me feel better (no offence to people holding on!)


----------



## Speculator (11 February 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> I don't know why such large numbers of people should be spooked off by the announcement. They haven't yet confirmed best case scenario but nor have they retracted from anything said up to this point that would have motivated someone to buy in the first place...




IMO alota novice investors woulds been put onto this by media, mates and brokers add the day traders in and POW right in the kisser.


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## Miner (11 February 2010)

VIL fell more than 32% this morning (11 Feb) compared to much lesser fall in GGP.

I am guessing the disporportionate fall in VIL attributed to two things.
It got a very high exposure on GGP so effect is a multiplier on either way of news.
It is an investment company so more speculative compared to a producing company.

I feel sorry for those who might have entered into VIL only recently.

DNH


----------



## condog (11 February 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> I don't know why such large numbers of people should be spooked off by the announcement. They haven't yet confirmed best case scenario but nor have they retracted from anything said up to this point that would have motivated someone to buy in the first place...




I agree ,spooked why, i would be surpirsed to see a rebound as the numbers moved from sellers to buyers pretty quick...

Sure 56 B of condensate is no big shakes, but this well was always intended to go for gas sales, the oil is , was and will be a bonus... to our knowledge they may intend fraccing on the vertical, or going horizontal with future wells , who knows, and hence probably part of their extensive testing program...'

Putty the 6/64 is only very small as you stated and to the best of my knowledge flow calculations and hence results are adjusted for the choke size anyway....  but with fluids flowing though the same small choke, my understanding is its not a real reliable test and they need to go to a bigger choke to understand how they both flow less restricted.....

Sometimes the small choke is needed to stop blowouts, other times to avoid water problems, but given all that salt and absolutely no mention of water whatsoever, it hink its more a pressure problem at present....perhaps worried about blowout...better to be safe then sorry...

Theres 38m on the buy side now so sell pressure is dropping... might be time to se if i can find some cash by selling something else.....???? if im brave enough...


----------



## pilots (11 February 2010)

Sorry guys, but after reading the report I would say its only a small pocket of gas,(ITS NOT COMMERCIAL) this is VERY common when drilling. Now can you tell me why VIL have not posted the report, do they think we are that thick we don't read other reports. They now will come out with, side tract, more testing, blah, blah blah.


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## Boognish (11 February 2010)

my instinct was telling me to get out at 9c as I've been in this situation many times with spec drillers.  The price goes nuts on pure speculation and the subsequent announcements disappoint.

Not saying that's what is going to happen here but in my experience it has been a pretty common pattern of events.


----------



## subasurf (11 February 2010)

Excellent, all this panic selling may give me a chance to buy in at a reasonable price. I missed the first ship that sailed.


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## pilots (11 February 2010)

Well I hope for your sake this ship wont end up on the rocks.
Can you believe they have not given out a up date.


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## UBIQUITOUS (11 February 2010)

56 barrels per day is pathetic irrespective of what else *might* be down there. Good luck to all holders. I will watch and wait from the sidelines.


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## Putty7 (11 February 2010)

Sold out this morning, in hindsite should have done at .08c and taken the bird in the hand, but that's the nature of the game and another learning curve about being overly greedy lol, made 80k so can't sook to much but the lost opportunity of greater profits is a lesson learnt once again. They still have more zones to test which is positive, a cap raising rearing its ugly head could be around the corner so prefer to adopt a wait and see approach. Took positions in MOG, MEO and GOA. Best of luck to those still holding.


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## pilots (11 February 2010)

Putty7, I would have thought that they would of had the Cap raising when the SP was up, looks to me like that VIL missed the boat as well.


----------



## Putty7 (11 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Putty7, I would have thought that they would of had the Cap raising when the SP was up, looks to me like that VIL missed the boat as well.




I think they will need to do one now as the options look a long way from fruition especially in the short term, they may get a result from this well that is commercial but I don't think it will see .10c now, if they need cash for the next well to be put down, a quick and relatively painless insto cap raising would be their best bet now.


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## pilots (11 February 2010)

Most times the bottom zone is the best, the bottom will have the biggest PSI, if this ones a dud, I don't hold any hope for the next lot of zones, can you believe that they have not posted any thing today.


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## condog (11 February 2010)

Dont get too carried away. all you people commentating after each market movement....... this is one well if they thought the announcment this mornign was going to get the rediculous over reaction it recieved they would have stated it was non-commercial if they at all though that was the case.....

in terms of 56BOPD the primary target for this well was in fact the 120ft gas play so any oil in this well was always a bonus anyway....

Im holding tight....obviously in hindsight a 9.4 cent partial exit would have been good, but it was 3.5 cents when they started drilling , they have a lot more confidence and knowledge of their target and still a possible commercial 1st well so 4.5 c seems rediculously oversold IMO...

Now watch all the mockers launch on that...

Pilots in terms of your continual reference to them not posting...if youd followed them closely you would know that they only ever made the one independent post and they copped a flogging for it...because there where discrepancies between GGP's and VIl's all other announcments have been duplications of GGP....so they have made the appropriate announcment....


----------



## Putty7 (11 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Most times the bottom zone is the best, the bottom will have the biggest PSI, if this ones a dud, I don't hold any hope for the next lot of zones, can you believe that they have not posted any thing today.




No and it is surprising GGP came out with the announcement they did, I would have thought they would have finished testing before announcing anything to the market, I won't comment on the other zones as anything can happen when you drill a hole in the ground and the nature of salt domes and how they affect the geology of an area when they push upwards is foreign to me, although I would have thought the greatest pressure applied would have been at the lowest point. I still think they will do ok from this and further testing may surprise so I will reserve any further judgement, but at this point I am on the sidelines.

Not downramping VIL Condog, I was very bullish on this share from very early on, just adopting a different attitude and a wait and see approach, but yes I think the market over reacted but not the first time it has happened for a spec.


----------



## Mrb1g (11 February 2010)

Sigh hindsight.

Was thinking of selling out at 9c and waiting for the inevitable drop. Oh well, might as well stick it out now.


----------



## Miner (11 February 2010)

AS PUBLISHED in Bull News Letter 
TOP GAINERS & LOSERS
Company Name Price Change Pct 
AUSTRALIAN MINES 0.002 0.001 100.00 

ACTINOGEN 0.070 0.020 40.00 

GASCOYNE RESR 0.150 0.040 36.36 

SINO STRAT INTL 0.600 0.150 33.33 

PLATSEARCH NL 0.085 0.019 28.79 

*VERUS INVESTMNTS 0.046 -0.025 -35.21 % *
(on the hindsight should have bought it today seeing the rare golden opportunity) 

CITYVIEW CORP 0.002 -0.001 -33.33 

CARPATHIAN RSC 0.030 -0.010 -25.00 

ASF GROUP 0.120 -0.035 -22.58 

OAKAJEE CORP 0.080 -0.020 -20.00


----------



## Atlas79 (11 February 2010)

What's a roller coaster ride good for if it doesn't sometimes go down? 

I'm going to be patient and wait till more announcements on this well. Everyone seemed to interpret "no definitive result" to mean "conclusively we have determined the sky has fallen". Apparently the options of this firmed up while the share price was still falling, meaning some out there perceive it might be rewarding to display more than a single day's worth of patience...

Not trying to influence anyone else's decision or ramp in either direction.

See you on the bounce up tomorrow


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## condog (11 February 2010)

wise words atlas

the reptilian emotions of fear and greed are cleary a lot stronger then the human intellectual part of the brain on days like this.... and the last few....

hindsight is a good thing and so is learnign from your mistakes...

my mistake was i had a sell on for 1.4 m shares at 9.4c on tuesday and took it off after listening to some advice that i should not have acted on...  oh well stuff happens... live and learn to fight another day....

This things not dead in the water yet though, a lot seem to have though this was armageddon and clearly its not... if you look back at where we where 4 weeks ago the company is in much better shape with much less risk...irrespective of whether this is trumps or not....

I will be surprised if we are not bumping around 6-7c on this soon again as some common sense prevails...


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## vivazebull (11 February 2010)

I agree wholeheartedly (and whole walletly) with those who regret not selling out at .09. Having entered at .038 I'm happy to sit tight, with this much speculation on indefinite results it should be entertaining at the least. 
Best of luck to all


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## meteosat (11 February 2010)

vivazebull said:


> I agree wholeheartedly (and whole walletly) with those who regret not selling out at .09. Having entered at .038 I'm happy to sit tight, with this much speculation on indefinite results it should be entertaining at the least.
> Best of luck to all




Hello,
I am writing from Germany. what do you think you should hold the share, can we trust the company?


----------



## condog (11 February 2010)

meteosat said:


> Hello,
> I am writing from Germany. what do you think you should hold the share, can we trust the company?




Nobody can answer that as its advice...

But yes the company has no reason not to be trusted.... they have an ordinary track reord in the past, but in very recent times since they teamed up with GGP things look entirely different, and youd have to say the price is oportunistic as well....IMO

But as to whether you should hold sell or buy, only you and your broker can say that...Take a look at the investo presentation dated in december on the asx site , in particular the diagram showing the salt dome with its historical finds.... then extrapolate that dat to this area which now has confirmed gas and oil, irrespective of this wells result.... factor those potential results on to this small market cap and that may help you weigh up some of the risk rewards at play...


----------



## meteosat (11 February 2010)

Thanks
I read the messages from Verus with ASX, the company still reported very quickly and that creates confidence. Is there still a good news source to mines and Explorers in Australia from which to see Germany facts can be reported?


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## condog (11 February 2010)

I also think many people without sufficinet knowledge of the play have immediately abandoned ship on the presumption there is not enough oil....

Dont forget this is the bottom target which was gas , the shallow oil target was anticipated at around 7500ft, so it will be a few days at least before we know anything about that pottential pay....

This lower zone with results just released has little oil, but it has gas which is what they where after, and generally on a 6/64 choke any fluids will drmatically impead gas flow rates, so the gas from that may actually be significantly better in coming days....as they trialther chokes

Then once they continue testing up if they decide the lower gas target is un commercial they still have another zone to test for both oil and gas prior to reaching the shallower oil target...

IMO this thing still has huge upside potential.....but if it runs to 9.5c again i will take a partial profit thats for sure...


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## Mrb1g (11 February 2010)

Absolutely Condog.

I've followed this thread and particularly your posts from the start. I'm in at 3.8 as well so happy enough to sit and wait. Only difference is next time (if) it hits the 9's I'll take a nice profit from it.


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## Agentm (11 February 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Absolutely Condog.
> 
> I've followed this thread and particularly your posts from the start. I'm in at 3.8 as well so happy enough to sit and wait. Only difference is next time (if) it hits the 9's I'll take a nice profit from it.




welcome to what it feels like to be on the tail end bigster

imho you need to call it as it really is atm.. classic P&D.. 

much to do about nothing. imho, pilots is saying something worth considering.

hope i am wrong, hate seeing collateral damage, but imho it forms part of the learning curve of the journey up. you need to understand what it i your reading, too much is misinterpreted in a very sketchy announcement.


----------



## malachii (11 February 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Absolutely Condog.
> 
> I've followed this thread and particularly your posts from the start. I'm in at 3.8 as well so happy enough to sit and wait. Only difference is next time (if) it hits the 9's I'll take a nice profit from it.




Trouble is - you and everyone else will be selling when it hit's the 9's - so it is unlikely to get there again soon.  This is why chartists say shares have price "memories".  There is a lot of emotion tied up in this stock (both positive and negative). Try taking a step back and re-evaluate.  Re-read some of these comments and "try" (I know - it's hard but as investors/traders we need to learn to do it) to look at them as if you dont own the stock.  Would you still get in it?  If you are a chartist - turn the chart upside down and look at the price action.  This should give you an inverse view and if you form an inverse opinion to your current one (ie - would I sell if my share had a chart like this) then maybe you should hang on or (maybe) buy more.  Otherwise GET OUT.  You can always get back in again if it starts to move and trust me - the first lost is ALWAYS the cheapest!

malachii

PS - I hold no shares or interest of any kind in this stock and am not intending on buying in the near future!!  I am not trying to downramp or upramp at all.  I just know how emotional this can all get.


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## Mrb1g (12 February 2010)

Agentm said:


> welcome to what it feels like to be on the tail end bigster
> 
> imho you need to call it as it really is atm.. classic P&D..
> 
> ...




Haha. No problems. I'm 17, everyone's got to learn sometime.

I was actually planning on selling at anything over 9 (seemed overpriced for no announcement) but in all the excitement of the price flying I kind of completely...Forgot?



malachii said:


> Trouble is - you and everyone else will be selling when it hit's the 9's - so it is unlikely to get there again soon.  This is why chartists say shares have price "memories".  There is a lot of emotion tied up in this stock (both positive and negative). Try taking a step back and re-evaluate.  Re-read some of these comments and "try" (I know - it's hard but as investors/traders we need to learn to do it) to look at them as if you dont own the stock.  Would you still get in it?  If you are a chartist - turn the chart upside down and look at the price action.  This should give you an inverse view and if you form an inverse opinion to your current one (ie - would I sell if my share had a chart like this) then maybe you should hang on or (maybe) buy more.  Otherwise GET OUT.  You can always get back in again if it starts to move and trust me - the first lost is ALWAYS the cheapest!
> 
> malachii
> 
> PS - I hold no shares or interest of any kind in this stock and am not intending on buying in the near future!!  I am not trying to downramp or upramp at all.  I just know how emotional this can all get.




Cheers man, yeah it's good advice. I think I'll wait and see how the next announcement goes then if no luck, I'll sell out. Like I said, I bought in at 3.8 so I can at least afford to sit back and learn, regardless of whether it goes up or drops again.


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## condog (12 February 2010)

An interesting conversation from hC, where Tracker2 rang steve graves re prospects on fausse point...now i reckon the 2-3 months is a tad ambitious, but its very re-assuring to know that Steve still feels this thing has legs...

The well cost $2.6M from memory and the flow rates they are talking will not produce that sort of cash, even on a different choke after clean up.....  So steve is obviously in possession of something we dont know or hes factoring in getting substantially more oil from the primary oil target at 7500ft....


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## Speculator (12 February 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Cheers man, yeah it's good advice. I think I'll wait and see how the next announcement goes then if no luck, I'll sell out. Like I said, I bought in at 3.8 so I can at least afford to sit back and learn, regardless of whether it goes up or drops again.




Just be prepared then. 

If we do get a 'we need to do more testing' ann the SP will fall below that 3.8 (possibly significantly) in the short term anyway and it could also be a long time before if recovers if it does.

Just make sure u have a plan/strat.


----------



## pilots (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> An interesting conversation from hC, where Tracker2 rang steve graves re prospects on fausse point...now i reckon the 2-3 months is a tad ambitious, but its very re-assuring to know that Steve still feels this thing has legs...
> 
> The well cost $2.6M from memory and the flow rates they are talking will not produce that sort of cash, even on a different choke after clean up.....  So steve is obviously in possession of something we dont know or hes factoring in getting substantially more oil from the primary oil target at 7500ft....
> 
> View attachment 35771



Condog, I would NOT TRUST any company that would give that kind of info out over the phone to a share holder, as to the flow rates, no one has a clue as to what they are until they have posted them, now if they are good, they will be screaming it from the roof tops, if they are bad you will get more testing required.


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## gooner (12 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Condog, I would NOT TRUST any company that would give that kind of info out over the phone to a share holder, as to the flow rates, no one has a clue as to what they are until they have posted them, now if they are good, they will be screaming it from the roof tops, if they are bad you will get more testing required.




Giving out price sensitive information on the phone to a shareholder - puts a big red flag on any company IMHO. Looks like a casino - OK if you get lucky, but most people get burnt.


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## condog (12 February 2010)

Be cautious but its super dumb to be negative...so be veyr cautious on this not negative...

Remember this is the first well in the first zone, its on a tiny choke that may be impeaded by fluid....this zone was only ever meant to be gas and any oil here was a surprise / bonus....

A bigger choke with minimal fluid impairment may see that zone flowing at very different rates... in addition they may well be test primary oil target now rather then bore a new well....

They have three zones to test ..... 2 that should have oil and the lower which should be commercial gas....

So anyone is right in that we know jack diddly squat until the announcment , but everyone may be proven wrong to assume this is a duster ..... 

Fact is this is still a very small cap with possible huge very near term upside, so please dont make idiots of yourselves by using negativity as a tool...and requiring it to prodcue results of companies 10 times its size overnight....by producing massive results in its first zone of its first well on its first choke...

If your chasing those sorts of releases go and buy into WPL or another major...you will get them, but the market cap will make the find almost insignificant...


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## pilots (12 February 2010)

gooner said:


> Giving out price sensitive information on the phone to a shareholder - puts a big red flag on any company IMHO. Looks like a casino - OK if you get lucky, but most people get burnt.




In this case the people have all ready been burnt, that info may just be some one ramping the SP, CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT WOULD HAPPED ON HOT WHOPPERS, no way. This test has taken to long, not good news I believe.


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## condog (12 February 2010)

pilots said:


> In this case the people have all ready been burnt, that info may just be some one ramping the SP, CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT WOULD HAPPED ON HOT WHOPPERS, no way. This test has taken to long, not good news I believe.




Pilots you need to hold your judgment a bit and wait see.....your negativity has no basis yet, and is merely preying on peoples fears

Wait see....what monday brings....

Today may well be a beauty for long term holders, not chasing the quick $ as all the traders jump back in for anticipation of mondays announcment...

Who knows really, but fact is the fundamentals why most baough this stock a week ago are still there....  small market cap, big potential upside, in good area with low inital costs and near time frame...


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## Mrb1g (12 February 2010)

Speculator said:


> Just be prepared then.
> 
> If we do get a 'we need to do more testing' ann the SP will fall below that 3.8 (possibly significantly) in the short term anyway and it could also be a long time before if recovers if it does.
> 
> Just make sure u have a plan/strat.




Mm. I assume the announcement is coming out on Mon/Tue so the question is do I wait and see (again) or sell in the pre-announcement build up. Then again, I suppose that's the million dollar question that everyone wants the answer to!

Also I've heard talk of widening the choke and I keep bearing in mind the point in one of the announcements were they had to redesign the rig due to high pressure levels? Seems favourable to my incredibly inexperienced mind.



What would your personal plan of action be here?


----------



## condog (12 February 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Mm. I assume the announcement is coming out on Mon/Tue so the question is do I wait and see (again) or sell in the pre-announcement build up. Then again, I suppose that's the million dollar question that everyone wants the answer to!
> 
> Also I've heard talk of widening the choke and I keep bearing in mind the point in one of the announcements were they had to redesign the rig due to high pressure levels? Seems favourable to my incredibly inexperienced mind.
> 
> ...




Go and have a read of hot copper - for once theres a far more intelligent debate over there happening


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## Mrb1g (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> Go and have a read of hot copper - for once theres a far more intelligent debate over there happening




I've read every post in regards to Vil on both forums ;]



I'm inexperienced so I take what knowledge I can from everyone and see what wiser people than me are saying.

Edit: Are you referring to the 'can Verus be a 10c stock again?' thread?


----------



## pilots (12 February 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> Mm. I assume the announcement is coming out on Mon/Tue so the question is do I wait and see (again) or sell in the pre-announcement build up. Then again, I suppose that's the million dollar question that everyone wants the answer to!
> 
> Also I've heard talk of widening the choke and I keep bearing in mind the point in one of the announcements were they had to redesign the rig due to high pressure levels? Seems favourable to my incredibly inexperienced mind.
> 
> ...




Having to redesign the rig due to the high pressure is pure BS, I never had to do that in my forty years of rig work, as to widening the choke, thats the NORMAL way to flow test a well, this test has gone on to long, if they come up on Monday more testing required, it will be time to jump ship, the smart ones have all ready gone.


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## condog (12 February 2010)

Mrb1g said:


> I've read every post in regards to Vil on both forums ;]
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Right now theres several good topics happenign with far more open minds and intellectual debate.......  worth checking out all the 12th ones so far...good snippets in each,


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## Mrb1g (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> Right now theres several good topics happenign with far more open minds and intellectual debate.......  worth checking out all the 12th ones so far...good snippets in each, especially from Ya




Yeah.

I've been keeping an eye on Ya, Melua and Nathan21's posts. That said, there are also some solid posters who seem far less confident.

Guess time will tell.



Meant to ask, do you ever use stop loss orders? I thought I might as well look into them?


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## Wysiwyg (12 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Having to redesign the rig due to the high pressure is pure BS, I never had to do that in my forty years of rig work, as to widening the choke, thats the NORMAL way to flow test a well, this test has gone on to long, if they come up on Monday more testing required, it will be time to jump ship, the smart ones have all ready gone.




1.8 mmcfg/d and 56 bbls/d condensate is ordinary but my experience with Aussie oilers in U.S.A. says they are simply non-profit dollar churners while providing employment for locals and company management. 

The Texas pincushion, is there anything left?.


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## Mrb1g (12 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Having to redesign the rig due to the high pressure is pure BS, I never had to do that in my forty years of rig work, as to widening the choke, thats the NORMAL way to flow test a well, this test has gone on to long, if they come up on Monday more testing required, it will be time to jump ship, the smart ones have all ready gone.




Hmm. Cheers. Doesn't sound particularly promising.

I guess I'll just have to decide what to do over the weekend.


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## pilots (12 February 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> 1.8 mmcfg/d and 56 bbls/d condensate is ordinary but my experience with Aussie oilers in U.S.A. says they are simply non-profit dollar churners while providing employment for locals and company management.
> 
> The Texas pincushion, is there anything left?.




The rates they quote are the INITIAL flow rates, they mean NOTHING, what you need is the end result, it could be a high PSI, low volume zone, who knows?? we drilled a well in Indonesia that flowed 5Mil a day at 4900PSI, is was NOT COMMERCIAL. I would NEVER trust a company that posts the initial flow rates, only the complete flow rates are the truth.


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## condog (12 February 2010)

Make your own decisions and DYOR

Do not let this negativitiy or my positivity change your decision making process....

But do look for more then negative judgemental opinions....and blindly optimistic .....

Whats the evidence at hand

1. Is Fause point a known producing area?  Yes IMO
2. Has the well shown positive signs? Yes IMO
3. Do we know the full results?  NO
4. Has the primary oil target even been tested yet?   NO
4. a. or are we basing our oil assumptions on the gas target where the oil was an unanticipated bonus, albeit very small one...?   Yes
5. Do you have good choke size data on to guage proper flow rates?  NO
6. Do you have recovery pressures to know what your dealling with?  NO
5. Are people with no knowledge of the actual play making judgements without the knowledge they need to base their decisions on....? Yes


Hmm make your own call...


----------



## pilots (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> Make your own decisions and DYOR
> 
> Do not let this negativitiy or my positivity change your decision making process....
> 
> ...




 Condog, how right you are on number five, people are posting how much this well is bringing in all ready in dollars, when in fact no one knows what the flow rates are. Every one thinks the INITIAL flow rates are the end result, what happens if it is high PIS low volume, read that report again, its telling me a different story to what you are reading from it.


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## condog (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> Make your own decisions and DYOR
> 
> Do not let this negativitiy or my positivity change your decision making process....
> 
> ...




Ide like to add a couple to make my point....
6. Do salt domes have a history of prolific gas and oil prodcution in Louisiana? Yes
7. Is the Fausse point salt dome a prolific producing dome? Yes
8. Is it surrounded by currently active wells that may have depleted its pay zones? No
9. Is there gas and oil evident on this side of the dome, indicating the salt has ruptured through the middle of high quality hydrocarbon formations? Yes
10. Is there nearby infrastructure making a gas connection to sales readily affordable? Yes
11. Are low cost secondary wells able to be drilled into other zones or to ramp up production of current zones? Yes
12. Is there other zones to be tested that may add to the value of any resource already know and tested int he current well? Yes = 4 more
13. Are any of these zones likely to contain gas or oil? Yes = both
14. Was this zone meant to target oil? No
15. Was condensate in this zone a possible bonus? Yes
16. Is the data to date that of a stimulate flow to slaes or unstimulated? Unstimulate
17. Is stimulating the well or placing pumps on it likely to produce better results? Yes


Hopefully now your starting to see a clearer picture....
Theres a lot more positivity and possible upside to this then some are seeing or commenting on


----------



## nunthewiser (12 February 2010)

18 VIL is a penny stock and players should trade the action not the hype.

19 the market will value it as it sees fit 

20 refer to 18 and 19

thankyou


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## condog (12 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> 18 VIL is a penny stock and players should trade the action not the hype.
> 19 the market will value it as it sees fit
> 
> 20 refer to 18 and 19
> ...




Its always a deeply mature and intelectual comment thanks nun for nun...have a good weekend though..


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## pilots (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> Ide like to add a couple to make my point....
> 6. Do salt domes have a history of prolific gas and oil prodcution in Louisiana? Yes
> 7. Is the Fausse point salt dome a prolific producing dome? Yes
> 8. Is it surrounded by currently active wells that may have depleted its pay zones? No
> ...




Con dog, lets add some more,
18 How many wells around this well, within 10 miles was DUSTERS,??
19 Of all the dusters, how many of the dusters flowed gas, b4 testing??
The answer to No 19 is, all most all of them.


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## Wysiwyg (12 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> 18 VIL is a penny stock and players should trade the action not the hype.
> 
> 19 the market will value it as it sees fit
> 
> ...




You got it right there. I used to think it was all about oil/gas production returning the company profit. A profitable business venture. They can't even cover drilling, operating expenses and the pizzly dribbles they turn up doesn't improve the picture one iota. 

Oiler stocks multiplying on nothing is common so get on them when the big players start pushing up.


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## nunthewiser (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> Its always a deeply mature and intelectual comment thanks nun for nun...have a good weekend though..





Just stating FACTS darl .. but the difference between my facts and your spiel IS that my facts actually mean something in the market


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## nunthewiser (12 February 2010)

Geez....... LOL i neither care about nor hold VIL ..... i have traded it tho briefly whilst the holders were saying how great it was ...... 

Heres a lil experiment for you guys ...... scroll through the umpteen penny dreadful stock threads here and place a chart next to each ........ read while they are running and read when people are saying " uh what happened " ........ im sure you will find something in common 

Anyways..... as you were .never let the truth get in the way of a great story they say ........hahahahahah


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## Agentm (12 February 2010)

condog

imho your getting a whipping, and will be further whipped by pilots here..

ip's are indication of hydrocarbons being present, ip's are really something heaps of reputable small cap oiler directors hate to put out. they can be frightfully inaccurate, misinterpreted, misconstrued...  but you  can also have company directors who love them for many reasons, for short term gain for cap raisings,, and if you have a broker or a bunch of brokers paid to make some song and dance over them, then you add further confusion and add a complete open season for daytraders to enter and exit a share and decimate the poor sheep who fall for the tale.  

i can see a few dangerously priced small caps out there hanging on massive sp hikes with ip's and then total silence, giving no length of time the ip's were taken over and letting the brokers and the day traders make a meal of the unwary..


dont discount what pilots is saying, he has a good point, i have not checked the region myself for failed wells and not studied the play at all..

imho the reputations of many small cap oiler executives are in tatters.. but with investing there is always a new entrant, a new kid on the block and a steep learning curve to be made in the oilers..   the sheep seem to be come in inexhaustible numbers and the day traders love claiming them..

just step back and look hard and listen to some comment here, you dont have to believe it, but research it a little for instance, and if what pilots says is wrong is wrong then let us know, but imho theres a lot of good sense in whats being said atm..


----------



## condog (12 February 2010)

Clearly there are some who are trading and follow trends which good on you nun, i hope you profited big time from this week...i really do...

But there are others who look at the fundamental underlying assets, positions and plays.....calculate possible upsides vers down and then take a position of exposure.....

Wysiwig i hear what you say and in 90% of cases i agree which is why i research my stocks so *****oughly before taking a position in them....

Pilots you are very correct there are lots of dusters....Salt domes are notorious for producing wells of prolific resources within meters of absolute dusters.....they have a strange geology in that sense....  the fact GGP VIL managed to locate potentially promising pockets on multiple layers in there first well is absolutely fantastic and possibly the major reason why they are taking so long to test and understand the formations they have encountered.....becasue they know they could drop a second well and potentially come up dry if they dont get a good understanding of what they have.....

Wait see fellas...hold your judgement......and then one of us will be able to loudly say "I tried to tell you......"


----------



## condog (12 February 2010)

Possible scenario

three sands

deepest 1.8mmcf + 56 b condensate

middle had higher pressure = big kick say 2mmcf 120ft

top layer potentially oil, but say gas 1mmcf 

= approx $8-14M p.a on a $ 20m   mcap

at pe of 10  with industry average of small producers at 17

= macap of 80-140m  = sp of 20 - 35c

Go for it cynics, but try and be at least 5% objective...


----------



## pilots (12 February 2010)

condog said:


> Possible scenario
> 
> three sands
> 
> ...




Condog, sorry mate, but the bottom zone 99 times out of 100 is the zone with the most pressure. You are quoting numbers and dollars, and yet they have not given us ANY flow test to go on, this well is NOT YET COMMERCIAL, that cant happen until you get ALL the flow rates. If you have a look at hot whoppers you can read all the BS in the world about people who have Geo mates in the US who have had a look at this and it is a going to be massive, what rubbish. The ramp team is in full swing, just read the rubbish.
You your self said the word you must look out for, you said POCKETS of oil/gas, if they have found any thing, thats what it will be just a small pocket, most times it wont pay off the cost of drilling the well, how ever it will push the SP up so as they can drill the next well.
Don't for get they did not get the name of the Balcatta cow boys for no reason all all.
Condog, how can you spend all day like the ramp team talking about how much Gas and Oil this well has when NO ONE including VIL have a clue whats in the well YET, this is the kind of ramping that get new posters sucked in to buying this type of stock and then get bunt.


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## So_Cynical (12 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Condog, how can you spend all day like the ramp team talking about how much Gas and Oil this well has when NO ONE including VIL have a clue whats in the well YET, this is the kind of ramping that get new posters sucked in to buying this type of stock and then get bunt.




Condog Ramping? :error:

How can you call it ramping when he clearly puts DYOR and this is not financial advise etc on each post...surely this absolves him of all blame and responsibility for anything anyone else does. 

He is just expressing his very positive opinion of the upside possibility's.


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## condog (12 February 2010)

Are we here to discuss VIL or carry on with this rot....casue personally i thought this thread was about VIL


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## pilots (13 February 2010)

condog said:


> Are we here to discuss VIL or carry on with this rot....casue personally i thought this thread was about VIL




OK lets talk VIL, how can any one come up with ANY FIGURES of what this well is worth when no one has a clue as to what the well is flowing. By now the test crew will know what the well is capable of, the time they have spent testing up to now tells me that the bottom zone is with out doubt will be a duster, if it was any good they would have been telling you b4 now.


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## Atlas79 (13 February 2010)

pilots said:


> OK lets talk VIL, how can any one come up with ANY FIGURES of what this well is worth when no one has a clue as to what the well is flowing. By now the test crew will know what the well is capable of, the time they have spent testing up to now tells me that the bottom zone is with out doubt will be a duster, if it was any good they would have been telling you b4 now.




Is it absolute certain that they may not have their own reasons for not disclosing immediately whether or not it's commercial? I'm curious because the share price is holding at about 5c pretty well... is that purely because of hype and ramping?


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## condog (13 February 2010)

pilots said:


> OK lets talk VIL, how can any one come up with ANY FIGURES of what this well is worth when no one has a clue as to what the well is flowing. By now the test crew will know what the well is capable of, the time they have spent testing up to now tells me that the bottom zone is with out doubt will be a duster, if it was any good they would have been telling you b4 now.




Pilots the word speculative or explorer indicates your investing in something that has not yet located or produced its claimed or indicated resource.....

Claimed and indicated or inferred to an untrainined or inexperienced investor can be exceptionally dangerous and risky, because anyone can claim or infer anything without so much as a sniff or reality.....

However thats where research and experience can help guide the process... If every investor waited till every company had a quantifiable proven resource , there would be no new entrants to the market and the world as we know it would not exist.....the equity markets would be starved of capital...

Sure there are cowboys out there running around making rediculous claims and coming up with nothing, there are also good people trying to legitimately improve share holders value...,,,,

Not all explorations are going to come up trumps, but as early phase speculative investors (not traders), if we are chasing the growtht hats possible in this phase, then its our job to use research and knowledge to sort the good from the bad, the likely from the unlikely......

The only way to do that is to begin deeply researching the probabilities and likelyhoods of success as i have briefly and only partially indicated in the 17 questions above....  its that type of thinking, plus analysis of cash burn rates, surrounding venture, looking for positive indicators that allow you to analyse the risk and take a decision on a speculative stock liek this or any other junior oiler....

Once you think its got some good positive signs i then start running possible numbers.... again the only thing you have to go on are signs / indicators / estimates and surrounding fields.....  which allows you to calculate likely or possible outcomes......  

If i was only placing $5K in these things i wouldnt bother its too much work, but when your playing a bigger play its important to know your risks , calculate them and have the numbers in your head so that based on those possible scenarios you can make well informed decisions when future announcments are made....and as developments proceed....I havent got to the position im in by being a blindly optimistic idiot....i have made my money by taking well calculated investment decisions and risks...from doing and insane amount of research on my investments...

The entire reason im still confident on this stock is things have actually remarkably improved on the reason i invested in it.....I took a more informed approach and a more patient approach then the day and short term traders who have jumped into and out of it on each announcment......

I originally analysed this one and decided on the probability of salt domes, this salt dome, GGP record and its experienced personel, the average rates found elsewhere around the dome, the tenement size, the cash they have up there sleeve, the possible out comes based on poor, good and excellent flows over multiple wells that with such a low market cap and such a likely positive outcome it would go up in value.....

Up to this point ive been 100% correct, I was saying that back at 3c, its now holding 5c, why because the postive sign of hydrocarbons and gas irrespective of what happens on this well, has made the play more likely to have a positive outcome then when i bought at 3c prior to drilling starting....

If the traders want to bash it up to 9c thats there right, next time i will probably take a part profit  just in case, but i will also hold incase its going further......

In terms of ramping i take a lot of offence to that reference....if i was ramping i would have sold all at 9c after its peak and rebought yesterday...I held because i actually believe in what im saying..and more importantly i want exposure to the possible upside on this stock....


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## nunthewiser (13 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Condog, sorry mate, but the bottom zone 99 times out of 100 is the zone with the most pressure. You are quoting numbers and dollars, and yet they have not given us ANY flow test to go on, this well is NOT YET COMMERCIAL, that cant happen until you get ALL the flow rates. If you have a look at hot whoppers you can read all the BS in the world about people who have Geo mates in the US who have had a look at this and it is a going to be massive, what rubbish. The ramp team is in full swing, just read the rubbish.
> You your self said the word you must look out for, you said POCKETS of oil/gas, if they have found any thing, thats what it will be just a small pocket, most times it wont pay off the cost of drilling the well, how ever it will push the SP up so as they can drill the next well.
> Don't for get they did not get the name of the Balcatta cow boys for no reason all all.
> Condog, how can you spend all day like the ramp team talking about how much Gas and Oil this well has when NO ONE including VIL have a clue whats in the well YET, this is the kind of ramping that get new posters sucked in to buying this type of stock and then get bunt.





I agree with 95% of this post and there should be more of it in these penny dreadful threads.

not here to call condog a ramper, just agreeing with the crux of this post ..

as you were.


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## condog (13 February 2010)

Obviously we are likely to get an announcment before mondays open and the markets shut so hopefully people will have enough intelleigence and character not to see this as ramping....

Lets look at this objectively:
Starting Globally - Louisina salt domes are prolific producers
Fausse Point is a prolific producer

GGP has a strong early record for a small cap - see bullseye results, with some fine personal......although they need someone to teach them how to write announcments.....

The tenement is good in size, located close to existing pipeline <6km at $30000 per " per km piping costs
The tenement has not been depleted by other producers

There is hydrocarbon and gas signs and correct formations now confirmed

Then this well itself.....
Gas and oil shows 
Huge pressure kicks 
Gas and condensate flowing to surface
1.8MMcf + 56b condensate pd with no simulation
Formation shows where positive

Irrespective of whether you belive this well is the ducks guts or not those are massively positive signs compared to drilling in a cow paddock with and inferred resource.....


What the pesimists and ill informed are jumping to conclusions on is the fact they have taken time with testing and the fact the inital flow is only 1.8mmcf.....they are failing to realise this is a 9000ft well with 5 zones across 3 sands.... it may well come up a duster, but at this stage theres more to be optimistic about then negative.....

The poor choice of words in multiple announcments has spooked the short term traders and investors who are just part of the herd with no full understanding of the stock.....

DO NOT GET ME WRONG - investing in these things is very risky and at the end of the day it could all amount to absolutely zero.......but the fact is there are way more things to be positive about here then negative.....

The one word that spooked the herd was "inconclusive" and boof, they all bolted, like a pack of pathetic sheep......all jumping off the cliff like little ill informed lemmings.....

Look at AZZ had the exact same thing happen and now its at 70c

My advice is wait and see , dont make idiots of yourself by making pre-judgments and definitive staements on this one till we see what we have.....

Run some calcs, know your risks.......and be super wary of down rampers and fear campaigners....it spreads like wildfire....negativity is the killer of hope and progression.....

At the end of the day its your profit and your loss so do DYOR, seek expert advice....


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## nunthewiser (13 February 2010)

condog said:


> My advice is wait and see , dont make idiots of yourself *by making pre-judgments and definitive staements on this one *till we see what we have.....
> 
> ..




But thats what you have been doing all through this thread m8


Pilots is showing the other side of the story...........


anyways......... good luck with it


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## Joe Blow (13 February 2010)

Can everyone please stop the name calling and accusations and stick to discussing the facts.

If you feel someone's analysis is flawed then you are entitled to point that out. But making things personal and attacking others is only guaranteed to lower the quality of the debate.

Now lets please get this thread back on track. Any off topic posts or posts with no content will be removed, as will posts that contain personal attacks or name calling.

Thank you all for your co-operation.


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## pilots (13 February 2010)

Condog, I interesting you mention AZZ, look at the way they are reporting from the well site, only FACTS, look at any of the big company's, only FACTS, now look at our old friend GDN, they all so have learned the hard way, they now are only posting  FACTS. You will never get the big end of town in bed with you when your SP can fluctuate up to 30%.
Now look at VIL, Formation shows positive,Gas and Oil shows,huge pressure kicks,Gas and condensate flows to surface,1.8MMcf +56b condensate with no simulation, any company that post that kind of information is grasping at straws. But what tells me most of all to steer away from this company is the massive amount of posting of rubbish on other forums, just look back over the last few years at the companies that had the hell ramped out of them, what happened????
 We will be traveling for the next month, so I wish all of you the best with all your shares, good luck to all.


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## condog (14 February 2010)

Riveting conversation you negative guys , keep it up....  the hard hitting facts your supplying, the scenarios your putting forward are just amazing keep it up....none in 30hours.... wow you guys really know your stuff when it comes to VIL

In the meant time i suggest investors look at the oct investor presentation and compare it to whats been achieved so far. 

Also compare the press releases to those at bullseye in early 2009...you may get a pleasant reasurance from that comparrison.....GGP press releases on bullsey never once identified proper flows until they actually released production results....  they hold there cards very close to the chest...


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## condog (14 February 2010)

So where to tommorrow if theres no announcment.....

Well for starters we are talking about a junior explorer...so far with exceptional results GGP and VIL along for the ride.....

GGP announcments on bullseye shich is a tremendous success has been very similar to GGP announcements on this project so far....ie: lacking detail and IMO poorly worded

GGP took a very long time to confirm production on Bullseye

We have 5-6 zones in this there very first well to test and in all likelihood a second well is booked irrespective of this result....

They have increased lease holdings at fausse point by 80% plus on the back of initial findings in this well.....

They have found gas at 1.8mmcf unstimulated on a 6/64 choke....if the psi is high a bigger choke will flow substantially more....

If psi is low this is marginally feasable but they have 4-5 more zones to test includiing the primary 7500ft deep oil target.(which showed 120ft thickness and positive sidewall logs for hydrocarbons on the way down)...in this well alone....

IMO The market significantly over reacted negatively based on the word "not definitive" they failed to see the word "confirm " in the same announcment.....  they also reacted on the number 56 B condensate per day, not realising that this zone was only aiming at gas...any condensate or oil would be a bonus.....those that did get in wanting oil didnt know the play..... but the 8th Feb announcment didnt make clear whether it was condensate or oil flowing to surface....so its understandable....
What the doubters and day traders didnt know is that GGP have proven to be extremely guarded and conservative in ther release of all previous statements....they have a history of very slow testing and being certain before they disclose anything.....

Currently we have 56 B condensate plus 1.8mmcf gas which equates to around 200BOPDe with very very low overheads ..... and low piping costs to sales....

If this was 30 miles to sales pipeline it would not seem commercial at all yet, but given it is extremely close even at present rates if they can be sustaind or improved through stimulation then its IMO more then 50% likely to be commercial.... but definitely  hold your judgment and do not act on that till further news....

a second well or third well would be highly likely in the event they chose to proceed to target the other zones, this would make commercial viability of pipeline significantly more cost effective...

Three zones with say bottom one producing 200BOPDe unstimulated worst case scenarion, say 150 and 100 at upper to zones = 450 BOPD e 

Plus theres a distinct *possibility* IMO the upper primary target oil zone could still very much surprise to doubters to the upside....especially if stimulated.....

*Possible * unstimulated scenario = 450 * $35 net = $15750 pd
= $5.75M per annum at PE of 10 = 57.5 mcap = sp of approx 15c

Now if they can sitmulate that or run it on a bigger choke due to high psi results could be double to quadruple that......

If however thats as good as it gets then we are IMO looking at commercial production but FP#2 will be the key sp driver...... and FP#1 would  IMO validate sp of 6-9c increasing as FP#2 approaches...

IMO if this is a duster we will initally see traders sell off but a sp of 4-6 c is warrented based on significantly better prospects and confirmed presence of formations, porosity , hydrocarbons and gas, then when it was comfortably holding 3c range....

I hope we will have an anoouncment tmoz, but the last one seemed to indicate  they would test for several days in the coming week...also presidents day...sunday etc.....so dont hold your breath, but watch closely...


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## Tommo_Aus (14 February 2010)

I've been doing some fairly rough and conservative calculations today, I'm keen to hear the opinion of others on this.

Going on what we know already, the well is flowing @ 1800 mcfg per day. Assuming this flow is the base rate (any extra is a bonus) we can conclude:

1800 mcfg x $6 (per mcfg) = $10 800/day

$10 800 x 320 (days, giving leadway for labor/downtime/possible degredation of pressure) = $3 456 000/year

Given the well cost approximately $2 600 000 it would take ~9 months to repay the drilling costs. Piping will be needed, so going on the highest estimate for piping:

1.6miles x $100 000 per inch mile = $160 000 (but I'm not sure how many inches would be needed)

This gives a total cost of ~$2.8 million from spud to a producing well with necessary product transportation implemented. Even with these figures we're looking at 10 months to recuperate initial costs, afterwards VIL would be looking at 50% of the profits. This equates to at least $5000/day, not including sales of condensate (how much would this be per barrel?).

With the remaining zones GGP would surely spud another well, in which case the necessary piping infrastructure is already in place. FP #1 is essentially a launching point for FP #2.

What I'm saying is the *initial* figures, even by my conservative calculations still equate to what I consider a commercial well. Is anyone willing to confirm my figures? That or mention anything I've missed/provide additional figures/*constructive* feedback.

EDIT: thought I'd mention I began typing this post before condog posted the previous one and didn't see his before I'd posted mine. Sort of a double up.


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## condog (14 February 2010)

Hey tommo im not gunna confirm or deny your cals other then say its extremely refresshing to see someone else with enough intelligence and knowledge to be putting forward a set of calcs for punters....

Well done....and they look in the ball parkish to me...

And remeber piping is a one off cost unless huge additional unexpected flows are found in which case who cares... 

Two massively important thing i forgtot to say in previous post also was this in reference to the announcment......they missed this...


"The drawdown and build up process of testing the interval at various flow rates continues"
Why bother if tis a duster?????? This process is not used on confirmed dusters.....its used on wells they have a lot of faith in and wish to continue finding out a lot more about...intervals they think are still likely producers....


"It is very important to do a *****ough review in the intial testing in the initial zone of interest* prior to committing to the cost*  of installing surface facilities and a gas pipeline...."

When i do something or say im going to do something prior to

It means im intending to do it, or am doing it unless something drastic changes...????

Even though a commericla announcment could be anywhere from a day to a few weeks away they are unlikely to walk away from this baby without significant testing of all intervasl of interest...and possibly without some significant stimulation...


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## condog (15 February 2010)

15 February 2010
Market Release (via electronic lodgement)
FAUSSE POINT WELL UPDATE
The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at
Fausse Point is continuing testing of the initial ten foot perforated zone of interest in the lowermost of three
identified hydrocarbon bearing formations. *Production testing to date of this first zone of interest has resulted
in inconsistent flow rates of gas and condensate and testing will continue through this week as further
information is obtained and assessments are made to determine the significance of this initial zone of interest.*The results obtained to date have provided further important information *on the productivity *of this initial
lowermost zone and the potential of the other higher intervals of interest. Flow rates from this interval will be
announced once a stabilised flow rate has been established which is expected to be later this week.
Comments
GGP Managing Director Steve Graves commented: “The working interest partners in Fausse Point are
*committed to undertaking a thorough and complete analysis of results in the initial testing phase of this
zone*. By extending the production testing operations into the coming week (and longer if deemed necessary)
*it will provide us with additional information that will properly guide us in determining the required
infrastructure for its potential development*".
As reported previously the Fausse Point well has encountered three gas and oil bearing formations starting at
7,000 ft. There have been several outstanding zones of interest across the three major formations with
indications of hydrocarbons that need to be tested.


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## condog (15 February 2010)

The last  two announcments have made reference to "surface facilities " and "required infrastructure"......

Hmm if it was at all still considered a likely duster why are they making reference to that.....  They are making reference to that because they either think it :
1. IS commercial and thus they are still testing to get a better understanding of the geology and stabilized flows
2. ITs marginally commercially viable and they are testing to determine if it is viable, but doing the sums to make sure.....

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind what soever that they think this is a duster.... that doesnt mean it will be commercial....but i am convinced the are either certain its commercial or still very hopeful........

Remember we still have 4-5 more intervals to test thaey have only perferated 1 interval for 10 ft of possible 6 "Outstanding zones"...over 500ft of interest....

The other new language is the Outstanding Zones......wow thats a big positive....

But the word "potential development" still indicates they are not or have not committed yet....

Another VERY guarded but extremely encouraging announcment IMO

The short term traders who got in friday will dump this morning and come back in on wed arvo to thursday IMO.....they wont like it they are too impatient.... 

The other thing changed fromt he announcment is they dropped the statement about "if the first zone proves commercial" they have replaced it with talk about "surface infrastructure" and "development costs" I see that as a massive positive, but thats just IMO....others will see that as a negative...

The inconsistent flow rates ....??? who knows.....could be fluids, could be kicks, could be psi problems ??? too early to call..


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## gooner (15 February 2010)

"Outstanding" as in not tested for oil and gas yet or "outstanding" as in very good potential. Not clear to me. Very poor release to be unclear.


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## condog (15 February 2010)

Its crystal clear The context of that sentence can only mean one thing:

There have been several outstanding zones of interest across the three major formations (pause) with indications of hydrocarbons that need to be tested. 

ie outstanding is the adjective used to describe the zone not the testing....

ie zone = better then good

I dont think we are so stupid that we need to be told there are several outstanding zones yet to be tested..its been made very clear there are 6 zones of interest and they are on the first.....thats obvious...so it acn only read on way....and whilst yes GGP need press release lessons, his language is not so poor that it could possibly be interpreted the way you are suggesting....


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## jetblack (15 February 2010)

Condog, as much as like your information. imo I think you and the rest of the punters are being played by the company.

Its all double speak, an empty bowser has outstanding hydrocarbon potential.


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## vicb (15 February 2010)

Looks like the punters are taking well to the ann.
Down 12.5% on latest ann.
I would say that one line was enough to spook the punters

"Production testing to date of this first zone of interest has resulted
in inconsistent flow rates of gas"


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## condog (15 February 2010)

Irrespective of washt you think of VIL , GGP are on a winner elsewhere and have some substantial credibility and need / desire to keep that credibility....

Go read there announcments from the fantastically successful bullseye from jan 09 - july 09....you will see a very familiar theme.....

Personally i think this announcment contains a lot of hints, including one that says " have some damn patience"


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## subasurf (15 February 2010)

Couldn't agree more condog.
People need to treat this stock as a longer term investment than most people are doing.


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## tunrida (15 February 2010)

subasurf said:


> Couldn't agree more condog.
> People need to treat this stock as a longer term investment than most people are doing.




definately not an investment subasurf - highly speculative for mine.

as for GGP condog, their financials indicate a very sick puppy, appear to need much good news to help raise more loot.


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## TheAbyss (15 February 2010)

tunrida said:


> definately not an investment subasurf - highly speculative for mine.
> 
> as for GGP condog, their financials indicate a very sick puppy, appear to need much good news to help raise more loot.




Well said and not before time. Investors? Speculators at best. Nothing wrong with that but when members of this forum are venturing opinions on investments and dividends in this end of the market that is a bit rich.

Have bought and sold vil and ggp and happy with profits banked but they are low end speculation with minor percentages of my capital at risk.

Good luck to all however be wary and make sure you have a chair when the music stops (yes Kennas, i stole that line from you mate).


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## condog (15 February 2010)

IMO we now know we are dealing with gas and condensate from this zone....

The statement about "determining the required infrastructure" is pretty certain and .....you have to ask yourself if its just a matter of yes or no...they already know all existing pipeline requirements for dry gas....   so this statement IMO is referrring to the fact they are weighing up one of two things....

Seperator and condensate storage requirements

or  Pipeline size....they are using this zone and IMO know its commercial, so are getting as much data to estimate top zones and other wells to establish required pipeline size and possible seperators / storage for condensate....

There is no chance they will try to operate multiple zones fromt he one well, they have already stated that will not happen multiple times....its just too much risk...

The fact they havent yet stabilized flow rates also indicates IMO they are dealing with condensate in reasonable volumes..... and are still trying to determine appropriate choke sizes to go either full dry, wet or both...

They have mentioned stabilising the flow by end of week and releasing the data as long as more time is not needed.....I wouldnt bet each way......on when, but thats also a positive in that they are still playing with multiple chokes for a reason.....its worth while to do so...

Novices be warned high risk volatility with huge up or downside....

IMO - i will go on the record, but do not base anything on this.....
Im stating i think its commerical and right now the decision being made is whether to go for gas or both....... and pipeline size....  thats why they are taking so long.....they are trialing the different chokes and having relative sucess with condensate on some sizes and not others....

IMO They will attempt to stabilise by end of week, by making a decision to go either gas only or gas and condensate....then will fine tune it for a stabel flow based on that decision...

Again....DO NOT make decisions on this....this is only my opinion......it is not fact....


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## condog (16 February 2010)

Another major factor for me  being confident of commerical is that even at a 6/64 choke with only 1.8mmcfd + 56 bo cond....= approf 200bopde = $2.8M net p.a.  I am confident they will flow much more on a larger... and possible stimulation or small frac, maybe acid frac if needed...

The cost other then seperater, storage and few hundred K of piping have already been largely incurred.... 80+% of the cost has occered already..... so why on earth would two junior oilers pass up $2.8M net revenue stream or significantly better for the outlay of only an additional....

Especially when you consider they will then have the pipeline in place for FP#2 onwards.....

Hence the references to "required infrastructure"......


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## pilots (16 February 2010)

Sorry Condog, but the way I read that report is that the zone they are now testing is the ONLY zone of interest, and it looks to me that it is a DUSTER.


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## swans05 (16 February 2010)

Pilots, was wondering when you'd pop up to put condogs comments down again, IMO you sold out at a great profit, and now just cant walk away because you have a gut feeling this stock will rise and rise.... u have no clue whatsoever to suggest this may be a duster....whats with your continuos put down of condogs comments... i will buy more stock today... as condog, thousands of others, and i look forward to having the last laugh with VIL..... Thought you were travelling for month, still cant let it go, IMO you havent left the computer, look froward to your comments after commercial is announced by friday..................


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## pilots (16 February 2010)

swans05 said:


> Pilots, was wondering when you'd pop up to put condogs comments down again, IMO you sold out at a great profit, and now just cant walk away because you have a gut feeling this stock will rise and rise.... u have no clue whatsoever to suggest this may be a duster....whats with your continuos put down of condogs comments... i will buy more stock today... as condog, thousands of others, and i look forward to having the last laugh with VIL..... Thought you were travelling for month, still cant let it go, IMO you havent left the computer, look froward to your comments after commercial is announced by friday..................




OK, Lets wait until Friday, I am NOT here to get at Condog, I am getting at VIL, and the ramp team,  I see this all the time with the fly by nighters. You seem to forget that your ramping will allways hurt some one. I have NEVER held any VIL shares. Talk to you Friday.


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## condog (16 February 2010)

pilots said:


> OK, Lets wait until Friday, I am NOT here to get at Condog, I am getting at VIL, and the ramp team,  I see this all the time with the fly by nighters. You seem to forget that your ramping will allways hurt some one. I have NEVER held any VIL shares. Talk to you Friday.




I wouldnt bet on friday, its hopeful, but i rally dont care whether its this friday or the next as long as its done properly to maximiase result..... and minimise costs.....

In fact even if pilots is right and this is a duster which i doubt the reson i bought the stock is more certain then when i bought it , theres actually confirmed hydrocarbons and condensate on this side of the dome now...

Pilots why do you read it that way please explain in full... use quotes or highlighting to help me understand your thinking...

Also  importantly pilots could you point me and other readers in here to a stock you have made lots of positive insightful contributions on, so that we may check your style out...ta...I think its important for us to veryify that this is not just a persistent attack on VIL for whatever reason...


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## condog (16 February 2010)

It appears pilot for some time youve only been active in VIL, AZZ and GDN... I think your invlvement in GDN explains your attitude towards VIL....GDN have been belted around with , what shall we say, lots of hope and little results for some time.... hopefully thats changing now......So if its your GDN experience causing this negativity toward VIL , i fully understand where your coming from...

Your probably right to be very cautios after that fiasco.....and there are similarities, but that does not mean its identical....and with the involvement, and track record of GGP....i place a lot of "faith" in GGP to be being honest here.....

GGP now have a reputation that will deliver finance and equity that they need to uphold, and misleading investors over a long period of time would be seriously counter productive to what they are doing eleswhere...., i cant see GGP risking everything they have so far over a 20% interest in FP..Especially especially, especially if they had any incling it was a duster.

You see GGP could comfortably walk away from this well and go for FP#2 or even walk away comfortably from FP alltogether...but they have not and they have not ceased testing for obvious reasons...becasue they see low cost near term significant upside in their FP project.... irrespective of whether its fp#1 or fp#3

rest assured with whats on offer here they wont run away in a hurry

Low cost near term significnat upside....
Low transport and infrastructure costs...
Geographically good area
Politically stable
Safe for workers - ie no terrorism or abductions
Onshore - so low costs
Low tax
Proven prolific dome
and the list goes on....

there are a lot of reasons to explore this very seriously, rather then walk awya and call it a duster....


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## Agentm (16 February 2010)

condog

there are hydrocarbons in abundance in the rock below in texas. but having hydrocarbons present is not enough, you have to have the right circumstances and the demonstration of the rock willing to flow to make a commercial success out of a well

just exploring is not a guarantee of success, neither is finding hydrocarbons present.  what pilots is pointing out to you is that the less understanding you have of an announcement an its implications the easier it is for misinterpreting an announcement.  and the better it is for the hype from a forum to override the implications of what is possibly not such a brilliant announcement.

you say your more confident now after the announcement than you were before.. 

condog.. you say this

"In fact even if pilots is right and this is a duster which i doubt the reson i bought the stock is more certain then when i bought it , theres actually confirmed hydrocarbons and condensate on this side of the dome now..."

condog.. what your failing to understand is that the presence of hydrocarbons in the region is not what the exploration is about, its about whether the rock can deliver up flow at commercial rates

my view is the same as vil.. this is from them themselves

"Production testing to date of this first zone of interest *has resulted
in inconsistent flow rates of gas and condensate* and testing will continue through this week as further information is obtained and assessments are made to determine the significance of this initial zone of interest."

its simply a case of them testing the zone off and getting as much data as they can, then moving on.. not very good result as we all know..


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## woltage (16 February 2010)

pilots said:


> Sorry Condog, but the way I read that report is that the zone they are now testing is the ONLY zone of interest, and it looks to me that it is a DUSTER.




Quote from most recent announcement, text indicating to me that the current zone of interest isn't the only zone of interest are in bold

The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at Fausse Point is continuing testing of the *initial ten foot perforated zone of interest in the lowermost of three identified hydrocarbon bearing formations*. Production testing to date of this *first zone of interest* has resulted in inconsistent flow rates of gas and condensate and testing will continue through this week as further information is obtained and assessments are made to determine the significance of *this initial zone of interest*. The results obtained to date have provided further important information on the productivity of this *initial lowermost zone and the potential of the other higher intervals of interest*. Flow rates from this interval will be announced once a stabilised flow rate has been established which is expected to be later this week.


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## banska bystrica (17 February 2010)

Oil and gas flow tests sometimes take a few weeks, even months to optimize. AZZ took over three months to get the first well in their Yellow Rose project to flow commercially. ADI took years (ie. just about forever) to get Kennedy to flow commercially and all the shareholders got burnt in the meantime waiting and waiting and waiting some more. 
VIL/GGP are drilling into Lower Miocene sandstone on the flank of a salt dome in onshore Louisiana. The area around the salt dome at Fausse Point has produced over 44 million barrels of oil.
This is not a complicated structure. It's got high permeability and porosity (unlike wells drilling into Austin Chalks and Eagelford shale which require fraccing and horizontals). This well, FP#1, flowed gas and condensates to surface unaided through a 6/64 choke. Sounds pretty impressive to me.


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## Tommo_Aus (17 February 2010)

Low volume so far today, appears most have sold/bought in previous days and now its the waiting game. Still some sellers meeting buyers prices, though it seems strange you'd wait until now to sell out. Who knows, maybe their financial situation has left them no other option.

So this zone being tested is one of six, covering just 10ft of the formation which is over 300ft. This gives an average of ~60ft for the other 5 zones to test. If the lowest zone is deemed commercial with just 10ft of pay then I wonder what it'll be like with the other zones, also considering higher zones are believed to be oil bearing.


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## condog (18 February 2010)

Well worth a read.....specifically take a look at middle paragraph on what is labeled page 16....see if it rings a few bells

http://www.slb.com/media/services/r...s05/win05/02_understanding_gas_condensate.pdf


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## Donga (18 February 2010)

So difficult to interpret the various announcements. On another share blog they have been dissecting every phrase with lots of O&G experienced input and still seems it won't be sorted until GGP either ann commercialisation of this zone or move on to the next. It does seem there is potential for Fausse Point to be a ripper. 

Unless GGP have been having us on. 

From days and hours pouring through lots of commentary I don't think this is the case, and would seem a matter of whether this section has enough stuff or whether they have to try the other zones. 

Learnt a lot but so much more to learn and loving it


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## angk43 (18 February 2010)

if you have a spare minute in your day , have a read of Metgasco MEL reports of there drilling for gas and how they reported there find. VIL, very similar to EGO, LKO etc, where there all testing for something and dragging it out (praying) something happens while they sleep and in the morning everything will be fine. Either commercial gas flows up the hole or it doesn't. goodluck with this one. 

Ps, was at a conference 2 weeks ago and some bloke was ramping this stock and BCC up, 2 days later the VIL price spiked.


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## banska bystrica (19 February 2010)

Oil and gas testing takes weeks/months....sometimes years. I see this well as a developmental well from which the JV partners will learn much from. Traders who paid higher prices have been burnt but O&G companies don't operate for short term traders.
Look at AZZ's Yellow Rose prospect in Texas. Took months to test and get to flow commercially. Traders burnt......long term holders rewarded. Same will happen here IMO.
I'm free carried in both heads and options. Happy to see how this plays out.


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## jetblack (19 February 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> This is not a complicated structure. It's got high permeability and porosity (unlike wells drilling into Austin Chalks and Eagelford shale which require fraccing and horizontals). This well, FP#1, flowed gas and condensates to surface unaided through a 6/64 choke. Sounds pretty impressive to me.




Not wishing to cross pollenate a thread, I know it is your opinion, but maybe your opinion needs a bit of freshening up regarding Eagleford shale and horizontal fracing.


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## banska bystrica (19 February 2010)

Extracting oil and gas out of Lower Miocene sandstone is a lot simpler than extracting out of Austin Chalk and Eagleford shale. Just look at the problems encountered in ADI's Kennedy well and AZZ's Yellow Rose play in Texas.
I stand by my opinion.


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## condog (19 February 2010)

Banksa I agree

Having said that the Eagleford AMI JVP's have more certain upside but slower due to horizontal fraccing times and expenses.

If GGP manage to tap this keg for gas, oil or condensate over multiple wells its a company maker...


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## McCoy Pauley (19 February 2010)

Price back on the way up so far today, rising $0.006 on 45T volume.  I wonder if buyers are anticipating an announcement tonight.  GGP isn't experiencing the same increase in price.


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## Tommo_Aus (19 February 2010)

Money moving to VIL from OBJ/SSN who aren't having the best of days. Probably some gearing for a weekend hold.


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## rabbit59 (19 February 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Money moving to VIL from OBJ/SSN who aren't having the best of days. Probably some gearing for a weekend hold.




classic... tommo i was in the midst of writing the exact same post  hope for an announcement early week... i think there is still alot of antisipation, and so there should be... i still free carry some VIL also topped up with some more to free carry just this week, so _HOPE_ is still the main word i will use.... yet no loss is always a better feel behind the word itself.......

all the best to all holders.....


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## pilots (19 February 2010)

condog said:


> It appears pilot for some time youve only been active in VIL, AZZ and GDN... I think your invlvement in GDN explains your attitude towards VIL....GDN have been belted around with , what shall we say, lots of hope and little results for some time.... hopefully thats changing now......So if its your GDN experience causing this negativity toward VIL , i fully understand where your coming from...
> 
> Your probably right to be very cautios after that fiasco.....and there are similarities, but that does not mean its identical....and with the involvement, and track record of GGP....i place a lot of "faith" in GGP to be being honest here.....
> 
> ...




You have missed CAZ, I got that one right, GDN I made a killing on the first well, never had any on the second well, CVI you know what happened on that one. AZZ got HALF OF OUR SUPER at 5c 5.5c 6c, so we at happy with that.
look at GDN wells, they flowed at 3.3 mil a day, they hold 100% of the well, have they come on line yet???. VIL only hold 50% of the well with a flow rate of 1.8, come one are you for real, do you real think it will ever come on line.
I told you that if you have not got good info under ten days to get out, well times up, get out.


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## condog (19 February 2010)

pilots said:


> You have missed CAZ, I got that one right, GDN I made a killing on the first well, never had any on the second well, CVI you know what happened on that one. AZZ got HALF OF OUR SUPER at 5c 5.5c 6c, so we at happy with that.
> look at GDN wells, they flowed at 3.3 mil a day, they hold 100% of the well, have they come on line yet???. VIL only hold 50% of the well with a flow rate of 1.8, come one are you for real, do you real think it will ever come on line.
> I told you that if you have not got good info under ten days to get out, well times up, get out.




Pilots clearly your in need of a very long relaxing holiday, so please go have one.. go set some VIL price SMS alerts so you can relax dude...


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## jetblack (19 February 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> Extracting oil and gas out of Lower Miocene sandstone is a lot simpler than extracting out of Austin Chalk and Eagleford shale. Just look at the problems encountered in ADI's Kennedy well and AZZ's Yellow Rose play in Texas.
> I stand by my opinion.




Appreciate that, but remember its the future not the past.

*insert wobbly music , and fade away *


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## condog (19 February 2010)

WTF dose that mean ....

If some of the negativitites bothered to get of their fennies and do some research and contact a few key personal they would have a very different perspective on this......

haaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaa thats what you get for being lazy .......


PS a few drinks bring out the honesty in me....


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## banska bystrica (21 February 2010)

pilots said:


> AZZ got HALF OF OUR SUPER at 5c 5.5c 6c, so we at happy with that.




Don't seem to recall you saying you bought AZZ at those prices when they were trading down there. It's all too easy to say what you did after the event.


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## Solitus (22 February 2010)

Yep, from this morning's announcement.

Flow rates for production of 0.5mcfg per day.  Lower than I expected, but the fact that they're spending on permanent access roads etc. says they expect other results to be worth it for payback from testing, or very nearby wells.

Interesting to see where the price goes today.



> The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP)
> advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at
> Fausse Point has concluded initial production testing
> operations from the lowest of several identified oil and
> ...







Tommo_Aus said:


> Hey Condog, have you read anything interesting lately? I know I have!
> 
> I must type more text. I must type more text. I must type more text.


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## condog (22 February 2010)

I temporarily got out this morning when i saw buy volumes drop. Took a fantastic profit, but will be back into both GGP and VIL once they stabilize.

I will be watching closely. They do not make a decision to go commercial on 500K flow of gas unless they fully expect extra wells and extra flow. Perhaps theyy are going to acid jet or hydro frac. Or perhaps they are confident it will clean up. Perhaps they are confident FP 2 will traget the sweet spot and perhaps they are confident if its stops or reduces flowing they will just go to another level...

Any which way they have more knowledge then us and GGP made the ultimate decision and had no reason to proceed unless very confident.

So whilst this week and month might be a bit rough the future still looks very bright for the entire project.

I think you will see the market over reacted. VILO must look very poor now IMO.


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## nomore4s (22 February 2010)

> Pilots clearly your in need of a very long relaxing holiday, so please go have one.. go set some VIL price SMS alerts so you can relax dude...






> Appreciate that, but remember its the future not the past.
> 
> *insert wobbly music , and fade away *






> Don't seem to recall you saying you bought AZZ at those prices when they were trading down there. It's all too easy to say what you did after the event.






> Hey Condog, have you read anything interesting lately? I know I have!
> 
> I must type more text. I must type more text. I must type more text.






> Sitting back and enjoying the ride from now on.  woohoooooooooo.......... check out the report in asx website.........sleepless night is over, i believe.....




Alright this thread has already been warned once by Joe.

These types of post will now be dealt with without any more warnings.

Let's keep the personal attacks out of it and try to keep this thread about analysis of VIL - both good & bad. 
Please accept alternative views without resorting to childish attacks.

Also low content posts or posts that don't meet the 100 character rule and ramping posts will also incur infractions, let's all work to keep the content high in this thread for the benefit of all readers.

Thank you.


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## condog (22 February 2010)

with the sudden drop I transferred accross to GGP. Not as much upside, but still good and has cash flow... I will be back into VIL at some stage but wainting in GGP for now.

That way if its good i have exposure, if it doesnt improve GGP has exposure to bullseye, silverwood and fause point.


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## sjx (22 February 2010)

Hi Condog

I sold out to this morning at 5.5c with the view to re-enter in the future.

It got hammered big time this morning, and the 6c sp did not justify the result.. I am just glad that i got out with a clear profit of around 55%.. not the initial goal, but what can you do? I along with thousands of others expected better, and the best is still likely to come.. until then, there will be volatility

The further part of the announcement is very promising.. looks like they may have found something else. There are things to consider such as a possible capital raising which will dilute share price as well the possibility that Verus may sell their stake (as suggested by some of the people on HC..). While this may seem quite extreme I think it is a strong possibility.. at the end of the day they are an investment company.

I would like to re-evaluate VIL in 2-4 weeks time at minimum and after some further information becomes available to the market. I am now learning more towards GGP however.

I agree with you - VILO will most likely die.. only a few things will save it. 1. They update flow rates VERY SUBSTANTIALLY in 1-2 months (possible.. but i find it unlikely enough to save VILO). 2. they find oil somewhere in one of the zones or this 'new zone' they refer to in the announcement.. both events are possible but VIL needs to 12-13c before VILO can be ITM.

Plonked the whole lot into TLS for the ST for a quick gain... currently oversold and hurt by ex-div.

good luck all,

Regards


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## wanlad1 (26 February 2010)

This post was posted by Nathan21(nick name) else where, I thought it would be a shame that you guys missed out on his analysis as has some pretty good points

When reading the announcement one needs to have an understanding of the oil and gas industry as well as business/corporate protocols. It is also extremely important to seperate FACT from FICTION.

Now what do we know as fact?

1. They have stabilised the flow rate at 0.5 mmcfd and have declared this as COMMERCIAL. THE flow rate MAY increase after an initial period (Comment - i would state there though this flow is nominal, it is positive that the operator has managed to STABILIZE this well and undergo further testing).

2. Analysis of testing indicates that this IS CONNECTED TO A MUCH LARGER HYDROCARBON ACCUMULATION and that THIS WELL HAS ONLY PENETRATED THE EDGE OF THE LARGER ACCUMULATION (Comment - this is the fact that many have lost in translation. That is, this is a ANOTHER WHOLE NEW SYSTEM THAT THEY HAVE STUMBLED UPON AND HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THEIR CURRENT PRIMARY TARGETS OF WHICH OIL AND GAS INDICATIONS WERE PROMINENT during drilling. This new system must be QUITE SUBSTANTIAL for the JV to temporarily forgo their current targets and try to understand).

3. More acreage obtained (Comment - it seems to me that the JV already knew about this new system when drilling and raced to acquire the new land to ESTIMATE THEIR STRUCTURE SIZE - indicated in their previous news release).

4. The reason of the JV declaring the lower zone commercial is twofold - to GENERATE EARLY CASHFLOW and TO HAVE MORE TIME TO EVALUATE ALL THE DATA FROM THIS ZONE AND OTHER ZONES HIGHER IN THE WELL BORE (Comment - business mentality kicks in and it is indeed the most prudent thing to do. Many traders and investors are crazy if they think the JV is going to forgo a possible NEW HYDROCARBON ACCUMULATION SYSTEM to test the higher zones when they can always drill another well a few feet away to access those primary target zones. This is why the JV is in the oil and gas game...the number of times that i have seen firms just STUMBLE ONTO NEW SYSTEMS and have a company maker is remarkable. Now i am not saying that they have something substantial but one must admit that the facts and their business moves indicate so. Do not be surprised if we get some form of resource delineation in the next couple of weeks that comes straight from left field).

5. The JV has now decided to build infrastructure including permanent access roads, production facilities and pipelines (Comment - it is quite apparent that the JV are gearing up for an extensive appraisal drilling program - even the most negative investor or traders is able to this clearly).

6. Once all data has been fully evaluated, JV will decide to either test the primary targets OR drill a new well ASAP (Comment - Now many feel that this will take all of two months and i must state that is quite inaccurate. The JV will be able to understand and intepret the formations from
the data and do straight risk/reward scenarios from the production performance of the deeper zone in a shorter period of time and will update their shareholders accordingly. History speaks for itself).

----------------------------------------------------

Now that we have seperated the FACT from FICTION, we can start having proper arguments based on the above. From what i have noticed from my exile, the following is obvious. There are currently;

1. Day traders and investors who bought low and sold high and are thinking of getting back in soon but evaluating their positions.

2. Traders and investors that have bought high (5-7 cents) and are holding.

3. Traders and investors who had NOT done their relevant due diligence and rather depend on other posters for information regarding possible investments. As such, once announcements are released, their inabilities and emotions are brought forward in the open in crazy sells and comments.

4. New investors and traders who are hoping for the next run but have not done any DD as yet.

5. New investors and savvy traders who have done their DD and are comfortable with their probably entry positions.

6. Negative rampers looking to come in at lower prices (this is perfectly understandable).

Now there may be other categorizations but i will leave it at that. In the next few weeks, you can be certain that we will be getting information and data regarding the JV's plans and any other updates the JV feels pertinent. There is also a chance that investors and traders might be caught out with a significant announcement. This is a possibility only cause the JV has already indicated that a NEW SYSTEM has been DISCOVERED and will NEED TO BE INTERPRETED.

Many in here might call this a ramp (i.e. positive) and it does not matter to me as i have only stated my opinion based on my experiences in investing in this industry. I am in disbelief (though not surprised that positive news such as these would cause a huge downturn). In my opinion, many have lost their train of thought and have evaluated the Fausse Point project's NPV and subsequent company's share price based on the flow rate. This is crystal clear. If the flow rate had been 1.8 mmcfd, the share price would be much higher...BUT one has forgotten that this flow rate is from a NEW FIND (and a possible linkage to a HUGE HYDROCARBON SYSTEM) and not the primary targets above.

Piercement Salt Domes are prolific producers (factually proven) but need to be understood well. The JV is being prudent in trying to obtain cashflow whilst testing the formations and area.

In relation to the VILO options, it is a risk but albeit should be a calculated one. 4 months is quite a long time to wait on a possible re-rating. The JV has a new find, oil and gas indications in their primary targets, commercial flow from a new find, build a whole new infrastructure and extended their acreage to a further 30% to estimate structure sizes...can anyone else join the dots?
-----------------------------------------------------------------

I thought I may as well include my thoughts on the chart at the same time.


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## banska bystrica (26 February 2010)

VIL is currently 4c which gives it a market cap of $25M. I am assuming VILO finishes out of the money in June.

$25M on what they have is expensive. They may end up producing much more gas and oil from future wells but right now they are producing 500,000 cfd of gas and VIL has 50%. That will barely cover administration expenses so a cap raising seems very likely at some stage.

I may look to re-enter VIL at an appropriate price.


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## banska bystrica (26 February 2010)

After reading the financial report released after market, it is very obvious VIL will have to raise more cash soon. This will put further short term pressure on the price. I would be prepared to re-enter around the 2.5c mark.


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## pilots (27 February 2010)

wanlad1 said:


> This post was posted by Nathan21(nick name) else where, I thought it would be a shame that you guys missed out on his analysis as has some pretty good points
> 
> When reading the announcement one needs to have an understanding of the oil and gas industry as well as business/corporate protocols. It is also extremely important to seperate FACT from FICTION.
> 
> ...




You have forgot that they ONLY have 50% of the well, they have no money, it is flowing at half a mil a day. Now now mater how you look at it it is a D U S T E R, DUSTER. VIL has one of the best ramp teams working for them, once again it will be the new commers that get burnt.


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## Trembling Hand (27 February 2010)

wanlad1 said:


> I thought I may as well include my thoughts on the chart at the same time.




Shame you didn't give it a good go though. Clearly it can only be a double bottom if its at the bottom not stuck in the middle of the recent range 

But that argument aside its a real shame you haven't labeled the *most* telling action of everything on that chart. Distribution.



pilots said:


> VIL has one of the best ramp teams working for them, once again it will be the new commers that get burnt.


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## banska bystrica (27 February 2010)

Technically it looks bearish and fundamentally they need more cash. A double whammy on the share price. I will look to re-enter at 2.5c, possibly lower depending on cap raising details.


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## Donga (28 February 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> Technically it looks bearish and fundamentally they need more cash. A double whammy on the share price. I will look to re-enter at 2.5c, possibly lower depending on cap raising details.




Then you won't be holding this puppy again IMHO.

Say that as someone who sold after last ann and bought some back at a lower level. Diverted those profits to my offshore Sydney O&G play after recent activity there however believe VIL and GGP are onto a great field. May buy more depending on next ann, if not too late. 

This site has so little understanding of what is happening at Fausse Point and for heavily traded dynamic stocks you need less TA and much more technical fundamentals invloved with O&G. Not that I have these, however is good to have so many experienced O&G buffs during these drill campaigns. ASF seem to have a lot gold and resource geos contributing but not many O&G from my observation, but could be wrong.


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## banska bystrica (28 February 2010)

Coming into the "We're commercial" announcement, I was free carried on VILO and my average cost for VIL was 1c. I sold immediately Monday morning at 6c down to 5.8c for VIL and sold all my free carried VILOs for 1.6c.
If I do not re-enter at 2.5c, so be it. It's been a terrific play. I think a cap raising is a near certainty based on how much Fausse Point will cost to fully develop. What price would they have to issue stock at now if they were to raise circa $5M?


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## Donga (28 February 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> Coming into the "We're commercial" announcement, I was free carried on VILO and my average cost for VIL was 1c. I sold immediately Monday morning at 6c down to 5.8c for VIL and sold all my free carried VILOs for 1.6c.
> If I do not re-enter at 2.5c, so be it. It's been a terrific play. I think a cap raising is a near certainty based on how much Fausse Point will cost to fully develop. What price would they have to issue stock at now if they were to raise circa $5M?




Well done, did much the same but not at those highs  Still a lovely run. 

Be pissed off if they raise at 2.5c and haven't looked into that since taking a lesser holding. Added to my GGP though  

Expect next anns will continue to see SP increase again a little though not as cocky short term as with other O&G atm.


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## wanlad1 (1 March 2010)

Read the anns properly there is no immediate C.R required maybe later year to develop new developments

Most companies have C.R or funds at some point, it is worth considering why they set up the New Company (see ann) in the U.S. once commercial even though low flows currently they maybe able to fund new ventures with a loan eg LOC this is very common practice

Most of these spec stocks need to raise capital, at times and there is nothing wrong when they do.  The last time VIL did a cap raise they were very fair in their discount.  Market may not have been, however S.P. was at that time comming out of a long term down trend, we are now trending up with a secondary correction right to the 62$% Fib retrace

I would think now that price has retraced but trend gaining upside momentum overall a C.R would not hurt price much and considering funds not needed currently not an issue.


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## wanlad1 (1 March 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Shame you didn't give it a good go though. Clearly it can only be a double bottom if its at the bottom not stuck in the middle of the recent range
> 
> But that argument aside its a real shame you haven't labeled the *most* telling action of everything on that chart. Distribution.




Thanks for your chart Trembling, VIL if you go back VIl is just entering a new uptend since Oct 09 from a down trend starting from 2007.  Yes price took off too hard and too fast and hit some solid resistance, however now back at 62% fib retrace strong support area that both fundamentalists and chartsists use.  

We had a rounding bottom break out Jan 1st (weekly 3yr chart) Of course after such a prolonged down trend there will be some impatient sellers from the last uptrend trying to get out.  I would say that burst in early Feb would have taken a substantial amount of them out even though the bulls retreated to the 62% fib...  I would say from here momentum will build and re test that area.  Then possibly a higher fall back before full steam ahead and top taken out.  

"Clearly it can only be a double bottom if its at the bottom not stuck in the middle of the recent range"  has only been there for 3days trading and yes confirmation needs to come to pass.  There has been 2 inside days on low volume confirming a change in sentiment from downward pressure, however market still has to decide.  P.S. Twin bottom maybe a better term


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## wanlad1 (1 March 2010)

pilots said:


> You have forgot that they ONLY have 50% of the well, they have no money, it is flowing at half a mil a day. Now now mater how you look at it it is a D U S T E R, DUSTER. VIL has one of the best ramp teams working for them, once again it will be the new commers that get burnt.




Read the ANNs properly they still have money to take them into production, plus as only "50% holder" they only have to come up with 50% of the $400 to go commercial.  I would suggest they have more costs than that, however in Dec they had over 1.5mil

The 650k or whatever it was for advice was paid in oppies from what I understand


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## banska bystrica (1 March 2010)

A bank loan is out of the question. In the US, you need a minimum of two producing wells to even get to first base regarding bank finance. The credit markets are still frozen in the US especially at this end of the market.


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## Solitus (1 March 2010)

wanlad1 said:


> Read the anns properly there is no immediate C.R required maybe later year to develop new developments
> 
> Most companies have C.R or funds at some point, it is worth considering why they set up the New Company (see ann) in the U.S. once commercial even though low flows currently they maybe able to fund new ventures with a loan eg LOC this is very common practice




Was wondering when someone would mention the setting up of Verus Energy LLC - I read that as they're setting it up for sale.

As for cash raising - I'm still circumspect.  

Yes, the fundamentals say they're going to need cash, however on the face of it, surely their preference would be to complete the exercise of VILO, as the value of cash raised would be an order of magnitude higher?

The closeness of the VILO exercise date, coupled with the seemingly deliberate lack of information to date on the well, and the potential spin-off  would appear that they're working hard to line up the ducks for a double payday - realise the return from VILO and then turn around and sell the LLC to a large US-based oil co. while the values are still pumped.

I'm still holding a small parcel of both VIL and VILO - made enough out of this one that I won't be upset if the parcel turns to dust, and I think as an outside gamble it could still be very lucrative.  However I'd say the risk is extreme.

Plus I'm a newbie at this speccie game, and have a habit of skim-reading, so don't trust what I say..do your own research.


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## rabbit59 (4 March 2010)

Nice simple announcement to let everyone know the EXACT facts of what is currently going on at Fausse Point

FAUSSE POINT and VERUS UPDATE
Key Points:
ϒ Fausse Point #1 Well - commercial production declared.
ϒ Flow testing to recommence as soon as production facilities commissioned.
ϒ Current test interval was not an anticipated target in the planned drilling.
ϒ The discovery is potentially part of a very large regional accumulation.
ϒ Additional adjacent land acquisition being reviewed.
Verus Investments Ltd (“Verus”) is pleased to provide this update and upcoming plans for its
activities at the recently drilled Fausse Point (FP) Well in Louisiana, USA.
As reported in an ASX announcement on 8 February, 2010, the joint venture (JV) partners in FP,
Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (GGP) and Pass Petroleum, have declared commercial production of
the FP #1 Well.
While the reported flow rates from this 10’ section of the lower interval


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## banska bystrica (4 March 2010)

Long term I still think the Fausse Point project has nice upside but I comfortably shorted another 1M VIL at 4.1c and happy to do so. I think the announcement by VIL was positive but it reinforced my opinion some sort of dilution is coming. Confident this will go lower than 4.1c in the short/medium term.


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## nunthewiser (4 March 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> but I comfortably shorted another 1M VIL at 4.1c and happy to do so.  .





Oh yeah .......... and who did you "short " VIL through bud? .

As in what provider?

I have just looked through MY providers and cannot see VIL as a "shortable : stock


Anyone else find a provider that will allow VIL to be shorted or is it national fantasy trade day today ?


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## banska bystrica (4 March 2010)

VIL has been heavily shorted for weeks. Look at the ASX list of short sales. You can short any stock so long as you can physically borrow it. My broker had no problems getting hold of stock and the interest rate is very reasonable. My broker has strict criteria on who they will allow to short. You must have the funds to cover a multiple of the position and you must be a registered sophisticated investor. Of course there are other criteria but this is not the place to be discussing these matters in detail.
I don't appreciate the aggressive, unwarranted attack nunthewiser.


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## nunthewiser (4 March 2010)

You are correct re ASX shortlist .

My mistake for not checking the most basic list first, it has had short sales 

I could not find it through my providers.

My apologies IF you are actually trading them.


Have a good day


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## Trembling Hand (4 March 2010)

banska bystrica can ya tell us who that broker is please? Very interested. Give them a plug if for no other reason.


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## rabbit59 (4 March 2010)

Second ANNOUNCEMENT for the day...a little more detail this time... 

The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) is pleased to provide the following update on the T.G.R.
Land Company, Inc #1 well at Fausse Point.
The T.G.R. # 1 well has concluded initial production testing from the lowest zone (8,370 feet) of six intervals
of interest across three separate gas and oil formations starting at 7,000 feet. The well has established a
commercial flow rate from a potentially very large hydrocarbon accumulation which could represent a new
play type not an original target in this well. Work continues on evaluating this potentially tremendous
accumulation and preparing the well for production.
Further analysis of the zone at 8,370 feet indicates that it could possibly be connected to a much larger
hydrocarbon accumulation, and that this well has only just penetrated the edge of this larger accumulation.
This zone was not an original target of this well and hence represents a significant new play type that will
need to be carefully evaluated with further analysis.
The following graph depicts the multiple hydrocarbon intervals penetrated by the T.R.G. # 1 well next to the
Fausse Point Salt Dome. Reservoir sandstones are shown thinning to zero onto the flank of the salt dome
truncated at the top by unconformity. These reservoir sandstones expand as you move away from the salt
dome and provide potential for large hydrocarbon accumulations.
~ 2 ~
The graph also shows the two primary target objectives of the well which include multiple zones of interest of
over 110 feet intercepted at the shallower depths and where hydrocarbon bearing. Given the significance of
the lowest zone and the very large potential upside consequences of a possible large discovery, the partners
agreed that the current focus must be on the lowest interval even though we still have primary target
objectives to test.
Moving up the well bore to test the primary objectives at this time could preclude us from returning to the
lowest interval. In the meantime, by bringing this deep zone into commercial production, the Joint Venture
will be able to generate early cash flow, as well as have more time to evaluate all the data from this zone as
well as the other zones located higher in the well bore
Fully understanding all these zones of interest across 120 feet and potentially other zones continues in order
to more precisely determine the geologic and petrophysics to assist with a full scale development of the
prospect. More acreage has been leased to comprehend the significant of the discovery.
A decision on the timing of testing of the shallower zones will be influenced by the production performance of
the deeper zone. Once all available data has been fully evaluated, the Joint Venture will decide to either test
the shallower zones from within this well bore or drill a new well as soon as possible.


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## pilots (4 March 2010)

wanlad1 said:


> Read the ANNs properly they still have money to take them into production, plus as only "50% holder" they only have to come up with 50% of the $400 to go commercial.  I would suggest they have more costs than that, however in Dec they had over 1.5mil
> 
> The 650k or whatever it was for advice was paid in oppies from what I understand




$400K will not cover the cost of the wages of the crew to setup the well head equipment to get the well on line.


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## banska bystrica (5 March 2010)

As posted yesterday on the other forum I shorted the entire 4.3c line for 5M shares one hour before the close. Confident about VIL long term but this will take months to test FP#1 properly and therefore I can see these announcements are the prelude to a cap raising at lower prices IMO.


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## Solitus (5 March 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> As posted yesterday on the other forum I shorted the entire 4.3c line for 5M shares one hour before the close. Confident about VIL long term but this will take months to test FP#1 properly and therefore I can see these announcements are the prelude to a cap raising at lower prices IMO.




Indeed.  From yesterday's earlier announcement:



> Verus anticipates commissioning of the production line to take less than two months. During this
> period, the geologists and geophysicists who form part of the JV technical team will continue to
> review and interpret all data.




Sounds like we have 7-8 weeks of construction during which they're just recycling the existing data gathered from this 10' interval.

Once the production line is commissioned, then they can get on with serious testing as they won't be bound by the 3-day flare limitation in Louisiana.

Whilst I haven't shorted VIL, I did sell my free-carried holding and will buy it back a little larger.  The two announcements yesterday seem to indicate they're trying to hold the SP around the 4c resistance line - the cynic in me wonders whether they'll keep making announcements like this every time the SP drops to 3.6c, and will then come out with a cap raising at 3.5c.

Of course, I'm just speculating here based on nothing more concrete than the pattern in my tea leaves, so do your own research and readings!


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## sjx (25 March 2010)

Have you covered your short banska bystrica? Do you personally feel we will see further weakness Sub 3c?

Interested in your thoughts. You've got balls to short something like VIL, but its seems to have paid off nicely for you.

Regards


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## questionall_42 (25 March 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> As posted yesterday on the other forum I shorted the entire 4.3c line for 5M shares one hour before the close. Confident about VIL long term but this will take months to test FP#1 properly and therefore I can see these announcements are the prelude to a cap raising at lower prices IMO.




BB - Just wondering who you shorted VIL with? Didn't think you could short with penny dreadfuls... Maybe I have misinterpreted what you have done.


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## sjx (27 March 2010)

questionall_42 said:


> BB - Just wondering who you shorted VIL with? Didn't think you could short with penny dreadfuls... Maybe I have misinterpreted what you have done.




Its up to the brokers discretion to allow their clients to short. Usually you will have a healthy client/broker relationship _and _bank balance, for the broker to allow you to do it. (Sophisticated investor level, for example) 

I'm going to quote a poster from another forum, within in regard to people can short 'penny dreadfuls'. This is a good description of how the shorting or the "securities lending" is done. The rules can somewhat be exploited as result. Hopefully this will lend a hand to those who merely understand you can only short what your the list says you can. 
_
"There is a slight difference in terms 'short selling' and 'securities lending'. Naked short selling is prohibited on all stocks.

Covered short selling is restricted to certain stocks that meet market cap, liquidity and certain other criteria, and is capped at 10% of a companies stock.

With covered short selling their is no agreement between owner and shorter. The broker simply covers one clients request with an opposing clients stock(without informing them) and makes sure he has plenty of excess stock. This must be reported.

When entering into a securities lending agreement, the borrower becomes the beneficial owner. Basically, since the investor now owns the shares, he isn't shorting. He is no longer restricted to the shares on the stock exchanges official short selling list. And their is no requirement to report._" - Nathanblack, "Hotcopper" 6/3/10

I don't think BB will be posting which broker it is, understandably. BB couldn't have shorted essentially.. but he has a "securities lending agreement" with his broker.


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## banska bystrica (29 March 2010)

You cannot legally naked short but you can short any listed stock so long as you hold the securities. Any decent broker will do this for their clients.
My broker requires a certain amount of cash in the trading account as collateral and you also have to be officially registered as a "sophisticated investor" with the broker. I do not currently have a short position in VIL. I closed it out at 3.2c. I would buy this stock between 2c and 2.5c as that's where they will probably have to do a cap raising. It's hard to see it being done at much higher prices than that given it's currently 3c.


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## banska bystrica (29 March 2010)

banska bystrica said:


> Long term I still think the Fausse Point project has nice upside but I comfortably shorted another 1M VIL at 4.1c and happy to do so. I think the announcement by VIL was positive but it reinforced my opinion some sort of dilution is coming. Confident this will go lower than 4.1c in the short/medium term.




Nice to get it right sometimes.
Stock looks particularly weak today with a single 7M sell order sitting at 3.2c.


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## McCoy Pauley (18 May 2010)

Anyone still interested in this company?

VIL released an announcement to the market yesterday updating holders on the progress of Fausse Point #1 and Fausse Point #2.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100517/pdf/31qcwr0jpwpcmj.pdf

Fausse Point #1 will finally enter production and VIL is keen to start drilling FP#2.

Share price took a slight uptick yesterday but I think gains were reversed today.


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## pilots (18 May 2010)

If they are so keen to drill the second well they should not talk about the potential of the second site, they should have one.


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## McCoy Pauley (1 June 2010)

VIL announces to the market that it's raised $1.1 million at 2.2c/share through placement of shares with clients of Minc Stockbroking to fund VIL's investment in the Bongo Prospect in Wharton County, Texas.

http://www.verus.com.au/aurora/asse...ement_-_Bongo,_AEA_and_Placement_clean[1].pdf

Share price promptly drops like a stone today, given the significant discount between the price for the placement and yesterday's closing on-market price.

All this for slightly less than a 10% interest in the Prospect.

Hmmm.


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## Putty7 (27 July 2010)

VIL had a bit of a run today, they have finished messing around with the testing in the bottom zone and are now moving up to test the more promising zones that were encountered in FP-1.

Results from the Bongo well that they farmed into should be in soon, be it good or bad.

FP-2 drill date could also be announced soon. 

Flow rates from the higher levels of FP-1 soon.

Could be enough coming up to give it a run again, finished strongly today, tomorrow will be interesting to watch.


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## King EU (24 November 2010)

This thread's been pretty quite recently so I thought i'd bump it with something that i found a bit odd. According to today's course of sales, someone decided to offload over $198,000 worth of stock at around 3:25pm this afternoon... 

That’s a lot of shares...


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## pilots (25 November 2010)

Well if you was in the know you would have sold as well, this is how VIL has works.


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## King EU (26 November 2010)

pilots said:


> Well if you was in the know you would have sold as well, this is how VIL has works.




I'm not so sure.

I'm no pro, but i don't see any reason to want to bail out of vil (especially at an 18 month low). It was actually going quite well today until the same thing happened at around 3:10pm, so i think someone is purposely trying to suppress the price at 0.013 but i don't know why someone would want too.


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## petee (28 June 2012)

*VIL-this makes me laugh*

Take a read of the crying and wailing over on the VIL posts on hotcopper. Botkiller says he has been "milked" out of 40K by directors of VIL.What a joke VIL was one of the most speculative dogs on the market and anyone talking class action and blaming anyone else for their greedy gambling actions on such a highly speculative stock needs to take a good hard look at themselves.VIL ADX and XST came up with a duster its as simple as that.cheers


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## vicb (4 September 2012)

All quite on the VIL front. It feels like waiting for a slow death.


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