# Gold and Silver in free fall



## dwecke2000 (18 January 2006)

Not good :goodnight


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## johnno261 (18 January 2006)

dwecke2000 said:
			
		

> Not good :goodnight




DWECKE2000, dont worry about Gold and Silver, worry about your MGX getting smashed tomorrow!!!!!!!!


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## wayneL (18 January 2006)

Why is it not good? It's great if you're short.

(NB I hold no positions in Gold ATM)


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## noirua (21 November 2020)




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## Joules MM1 (12 January 2021)

inv head n shoulders 

trade idea



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/UXDdjpie/


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## peter2 (12 January 2021)

POG bouncing off the 200d MA once again.


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## againsthegrain (12 January 2021)

peter2 said:


> POG bouncing off the 200d MA once again.



Coincidental with bitcoin retrace?


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## wayneL (12 January 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Coincidental with bitcoin retrace?




Yep. Significant, but I have no idea of how or why. LOL

Accumulating a bit more here but I wouldn't be surprised for a much more severe SmackDown at some point in the next year or two.... Keeping some powder dry.


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## Joules MM1 (14 January 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> inv head n shoulders
> 
> trade idea
> 
> ...






			https://www.tradingview.com/x/szabdhkl/
		


follow-up
+ the context
this structure suggests we are in a deep retrace, so how the structure prints over the next few days will tell us  a lot about intent by hedgers
keeping in mind that cheap-cost expansion liquidity has to go somewhere



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/e1RimKiW/
		

a hinge


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## Joules MM1 (14 January 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.tradingview.com/x/szabdhkl/
> 
> 
> 
> ...



..and the level broke, we're short !


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## barney (14 January 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> ..and the level broke, we're short !




Maybe one more fail at that 1848 level before boots 'n all @Joules MM1  ??


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## frugal.rock (14 January 2021)

This thread is click bait....
Bitcoin ramping.
Gold & silver down ramping.

For shame.


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## Joules MM1 (14 January 2021)

barney said:


> Maybe one more fail at that 1848 level before boots 'n all @Joules MM1  ??




hard work hanging onto a sell when all the smaller signals are (s)creaming buy !!


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## Joules MM1 (14 January 2021)

in auctions like this i always ask the question

so, which ones a lie and who's doing the lying, who's trying to manufacture direction hoping they'll get a some support in that direction
and when dont they have to bail their positions because theyre fighting against the trend that's about to arrive and rip them a new one

...which we use to call price discovery ......no, it's price skullduggery ....or bug.. um nevermind



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/5ikzONv4/


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## Joules MM1 (15 January 2021)

dirty compression, bids are winning, got squeezed out last night, looks like team fix-it have fixed


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## The Cruising Investor (15 January 2021)

Are there any gold royalty shares on ASX?


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## barney (15 January 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> dirty compression, bids are winning, got squeezed out last night, looks like team fix-it have fixed




Indexes look to be rolling over a bit at the moment.  My crystal ball says the bottom might be in on Gold at $1841 for the moment ??

My crystal balls are also very old and tarnished and often can't be trusted


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## barney (15 January 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Gold & silver down ramping.
> For shame.




Not me FR   I own too many Gold Stocks to want Gold to keep dropping ....

The $1848 level is current being chewed over .... Back under the $1841 with any gusto will not be appreciated


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## Joules MM1 (15 January 2021)

barney said:


> Indexes look to be rolling over a bit at the moment.  My crystal ball says the bottom might be in on Gold at $1841 for the moment ??
> 
> My crystal balls are also very old and tarnished and often can't be trusted




for mine 1843 cash $xauusd would be a tell if that snaps on an impulsive offer, this low is very messy and buyers have pulled off 3 120-200 runs since the peak so even tho the construction screams bid in a sell down it'd be less than effective to hang onto a belief in either direction, plenty of points in either direction currently not that difficult to get out of a trap but the bigger print says bulls are being lulled into the "investment" trap

pro tip: lead crystal .....having been kicked in them a few


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## barney (15 January 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> pro tip: lead crystal .....having been kicked in them a few




Cheers @Joules MM1 

Always appreciate your commentary


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## Joules MM1 (16 January 2021)

barney said:


> Cheers @Joules MM1
> 
> Always appreciate your commentary




failure to take off with overlapping choppy struggle the sellers held off looking for better prices but bidders didnt appear
what did appear was the swing from "top" clients at 74% going to 86% BTO just as the price broke down and "all clients going from 78% to 82% BTO

that's indicating the retail section thought they were buying the discount

the structure now indicates we are trending (again) 
....question is how significant is the divergent signal of silver as a leading indicator ?
maybe it's not much at all but when they diverge this way it shouldnt be ignored if looking the opposite was as a positional idea


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## Joules MM1 (18 January 2021)

not all moves are equal, someone was bidding this sigma stretch but it failed when reaching the release level ...that's a strong signal for more of the same

1743 is a decent target for mine, hits the base of the sloping channel and that's probably decision time for the managers


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## Joules MM1 (18 January 2021)

nicely played overnight trap
out of the sell, in a buy

..i was the fader that got faded


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## explod (18 January 2021)

Normal for the drop down on a Monday, gold almost returned to it's Friday close by our close and silver recovered to finish up.

In my view it has established a solid bottom and will rise from here.  The new US president is going to open with 2 trillion in paper money to fix things.  Fix with no solid base, US dollar will further weaken and gold will shine. In my humble opinion only. DYOR


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## rederob (18 January 2021)

Apologies for all the colour, but this chart has collapsed the trend line series I have been tracking since this bull market got underway:


Right now POG is a touch above the median price (dashed white line within the white-bounded trend channel) I have mapped for gold's steady rise.  
Today's nadir was some $50 higher than support, and the current bounce north has been strong and sustained over the last 6 hours.
The steeper trend channel above is much narrower and its median is about $100 higher.  Interestingly, the steeper channel is less steep than the bull trend that peaked in 2011.
I share @explod's sentiment and bask in the glory of my crystal balls.


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## Joules MM1 (18 January 2021)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YItaRa8j/
		


based on itself and how it's printed and how it's printing


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## Joules MM1 (4 February 2021)

the gold song today

that channel continues to favor the bulls until the base of it falls away
at 1am aest retail cfd were 81% long, "top" cfd traders were 85% long
not quite all buying the dip and not all on one side of the boat, but where was the signal to buy ?


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## gartley (4 February 2021)

For me it's sell down to 1676, only then will consider longs. This corrective stucture down I have actully made more $$ than the run to the last bull top in July August. Either just got lucky or have a retarded approach to trading....


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 February 2021)

I must admit to some small gold holdings which are south of where I bought them.

I’m looking at getting into silver once the reddit flashmob stop dancing.

There is way too much uncertainty. I believe Bitcoin will crash maskless by viral means.

As for viruses I believe Covid 19 has a way to go, not to mention possibly Covid 20/21 etc. Genie out of bottle so to speak. 

Au and Ag are far from dropping dramatically imo.

gg


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## grah33 (4 February 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I believe Bitcoin will crash maskless by viral means.



what does that mean? curious ... 

but yeah, Gold isn't rising much at all.  maybe bitcoin will knock it off.  Gold is "dead money"


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## qldfrog (4 February 2021)

grah33 said:


> what does that mean? curious ...
> 
> but yeah, Gold isn't rising much at all.  maybe bitcoin will knock it off.  Gold is "dead money"



As is btc


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## frugal.rock (5 February 2021)

Gold breaching $1800 and headed for $1600 (haha)




Silver, on a pullback, dip buyers prepping for $25




And crypto?
Currently, gold is old... and crypto is risk on.
The trick is, get in sync with the actual crypto rotation scenarios.
Right now, the Dogecoin is it. Watch it dump and some other crypto pump.


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## joeno (5 February 2021)

We're living in bizarro world. Gold dropping off the back of historic US fiscal incompetence printing $trillions. 

If people smartened up and bought real gold rather than gold contracts we'd see a complete loss of supply and prices going up up and up.


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## grah33 (5 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> As is btc



not according to Saylor


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## qldfrog (5 February 2021)

grah33 said:


> not according to Saylor



Dead money in term of not earning interest as far as i know
But i think the concept of interest on bitcoin is not actually idiotic.
Except it would be a daring person who would borrow btc at even .1% a year...
but on the other end
Borrow 1 btc,have to pay back 1.1btc in a year sell btc at 48kaud, buy it back at 44kaud and pay back your loan within a month 
keep the difference.
too risky?
As long as you have collaterals, this is done with margin loan on shares.....so why not?


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## grah33 (7 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Dead money in term of not earning interest as far as i know
> But i think the concept of interest on bitcoin is not actually idiotic.
> Except it would be a daring person who would borrow btc at even .1% a year...
> but on the other end
> ...



yeah look i dk but bitcoin is a currency  and later it would become stable after becoming universal. lets keep this in the main bitcoin thread i think


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## Joules MM1 (16 February 2021)

herding cats to 1835, xauusd ?


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## Joules MM1 (16 February 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> herding cats to 1835, xauusd ?



nope, scratch that, a limp biscuit


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## Joules MM1 (16 February 2021)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/A29QvWMZ/
		

standard construct (E cannot exceed C, E usually terminates at 61.8% of C)

or you could look it the other way, as in, not a cup n handle in the standard config...take a look:


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/915AmKa3/
		


breaking 1819 on an impulsive sell would not suit longs


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## Joules MM1 (16 February 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.tradingview.com/x/A29QvWMZ/
> 
> 
> standard construct (E cannot exceed C, E usually terminates at 61.8% of C)
> ...




1802's on a thrust most probable target for an initial rotation


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## Joules MM1 (17 February 2021)

not a smidgeon of a rotation, let's not stand in the way



news that fits the trend

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...tent&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter


> iShares Silver Trust saw outflows of $919.1 million, while SPDR Gold Shares had net sales of $621 million in the last week.


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## Joules MM1 (17 February 2021)

.


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## Joules MM1 (17 February 2021)

almost got head faked out with the swift pump this morning
1783's down to 1775's likely target for xauusd to slump to

sitting in the middle of two well defined down-channels, favoring more of the same


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/V3tnQ5PJ/


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## frugal.rock (17 February 2021)

1700 because that's before 1600...haha


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## frugal.rock (27 February 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> 1700 because that's before 1600...haha



It hit $1717 last night..closing $1732
Better invest in a better asset. lol


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## Joules MM1 (2 March 2021)

sell signals abound, the base of the down-channel is not far away, decision time for more longs
the opportunity to sell into strength diminishes



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/l03to4Sn/


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## frugal.rock (2 March 2021)




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## grah33 (4 March 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> sell signals abound, the base of the down-channel is not far away, decision time for more longs
> the opportunity to sell into strength diminishes
> 
> 
> ...



U think gold is gonna go down?  
i might sell half ...


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## frugal.rock (5 March 2021)

Next stop $1600.... hopefully we have a trigger for a hard reversal before that. Buy oil, sell gold?
Ducati or Hartley have the why.


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## qldfrog (5 March 2021)

or we have reached the bottom, see Ducati or Hartley and we are ready to bounce


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## againsthegrain (5 March 2021)

I have been buying bullion since the very peak, paid 4.6k for 2oz (62g) this week almost the same 4.4k for 50g late last year.  Still buying and accumulating all the way down,  not much to go


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## qldfrog (5 March 2021)

Unless you are in the US, what matter os tha aud per oz price.now i coukd see another down phase for gold on usd, bit ..and i could be wrong, i believe we are not far from the bottom in aud. Either usd rises, and gold go down but a relatively level price in aud or usd rises, aud falls back to it 60ish normal price and you mske a killing especially with gold minor.
I stated putting money in miners in the last month.too early i know now but i do not have a crystal ball, and a month or 2 will make no big difference in 3y time if I am right,or even if wrong.


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## bluekelah (5 March 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Unless you are in the US, what matter os tha aud per oz price.now i coukd see another down phase for gold on usd, bit ..and i could be wrong, i believe we are not far from the bottom in aud. Either usd rises, and gold go down but a relatively level price in aud or usd rises, aud falls back to it 60ish normal price and you mske a killing especially with gold minor.
> I stated putting money in miners in the last month.too early i know now but i do not have a crystal ball, and a month or 2 will make no big difference in 3y time if I am right,or even if wrong.



its just the bond rates creeping up due to inflation/hyperinflation expectations. As soon as the new stimulus is fully passed and FED steps in to suppress bond yields, we will see more negative real rates and gold will spike for sure. I am buying perth property stock but will nibble at my fav gold miner stocks soon , getting cheap for the amount of cash flow they bring in even at AUD$2200 for gold, gold miner AISC is only $1400 or so, big big profits there.


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## Joules MM1 (11 March 2021)

stealth rotation upon hitting the base of the larger channel
current larger structure is very bullish, proviso, the base of the channel, yesterdays lift, holds...
xauusd has already started a smaller structure and channel, breaking down this channel and 1679 would be enough to confirm the bear trend, price breaking thru the larger channel base distribution would be heavy, 
based on previous activity we should reach the minimum of mid larger channel, my guess is we're headed a lot higher than that, everything required is in the auction, confirming we have new leg up would be satisfied by snapping the regular series of lower highs n lower lows thru
1751's xauusd



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/YE0lnnMq/
		



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/9Wu6nfhI/


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## Joules MM1 (15 March 2021)

Asian bulls stepping, construct remains very bullish after fridays attempt to test weak longs has done the work


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/sFFGtOtz/
		


we still need to break the larger series of lower highs/lower lows thru 1751's


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## peter2 (15 March 2021)

As you know I'm bullish POG.  I'm concerned that the pull back in the POG Thurs-Frid wasn't corrective. I think Friday's rally is wave B and we may see a wave C back down to 1700. If 1700 holds or wave C is truncated or price charges through 1740. We're off to the races.


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## Joules MM1 (16 March 2021)

peter2 said:


> As you know I'm bullish POG.  I'm concerned that the pull back in the POG Thurs-Frid wasn't corrective. I think Friday's rally is wave B and we may see a wave C back down to 1700. If 1700 holds or wave C is truncated or price charges through 1740. We're off to the races.




technically everything is in place for more upside but jeez talk about lame ....


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## Joules MM1 (18 March 2021)

1751's taken out on an impulsive bid, local stock buyers had an ah-ha moment this morning

the channel upwards now has several qualifiers so first signs of fake a lift will be a breaking of this opening channel
the larger downsloping channel still dominates so bulls still have a lot to prove but given where we're bouncing from more
upside looks good to at least the mid of the downchannel altho i suspect a lot higher

a chase is on but is it the start of another bull leg .....the bulls in here are pretty quiet


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## againsthegrain (18 March 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> 1751's taken out on an impulsive bid, local stock buyers had an ah-ha moment this morning
> 
> the channel upwards now has several qualifiers so first signs of fake a lift will be a breaking of this opening channel
> the larger downsloping channel still dominates so bulls still have a lot to prove but given where we're bouncing from more
> ...




Picked up 4oz of gold bullion total this week.... back to being quiet


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## finicky (18 March 2021)

*Jordan Roy-Byrne's*_ current take on the gold market and gold stocks, Mar 12
(abridged) showing conviction but patience and is accumulating gold stocks for himself and clients now.
--‐‐---------------------‐------------_
"Given where the Gold to S&P 500 ratio and the CAPE is (near an all time high and almost twice as high as in 2011), we know the real move in Gold is still ahead of us.
(As you can see, major peaks in the stock market & CAPE lead to major moves higher in the Gold to S&P 500 ratio). _See linked article_

At present, Gold has been correcting its big move (along with gold stocks) but has been weakening in real terms. That reflects that current fundamentals are not quite bullish for Gold. The market anticipated higher real rates and a dollar rally and anticipated that inflation will remain under control, at least for most of this year. Nevertheless, the setup for huge gains over the next few years remains in place.

Take a look at the important sector ratios in the chart below (goes on to chart
GDX vs Gold, GDX vs SPX (S&P500), Gold vs SPX)
These ratios are in position for huge upside moves. Breakouts would signal capital moving from stocks and into Gold, from stocks and into gold stocks, while gold stocks dramatically outperform Gold.

Gold itself is correcting and building the handle on a very bullish cup and handle pattern, which projects to an upside target of $3000/oz. The breakouts in those ratios should coincide with Gold breaking past $2,100/oz.

At present, the catalyst for that move is unclear.
It could be accelerating inflation, a move to yield curve control, or a peak in the stock market, which has become negatively correlated with precious metals.

While none of these things appear imminent and could be a few quarters away, note that the market will move in advance before the catalyst becomes obvious.

*Because nothing appears to be imminent, we can buy quality and high-quality juniors that have corrected 30% to 40% and more.

As an investor, I’m positioning myself in the highest quality companies with the most upside potential*. I’m looking for and investing in companies that have a defined value, fundamental quality, and have the potential to be 5, 7, and 10 baggers when the real bull market begins, and this sector makes its next impulsive advance.

In our premium service, *we continue to identify and accumulate those quality juniors* with considerable upside potential over the next 24 months."








						The Gold Bull Market Has Barely Started
					

Gold's severe correction and weak performance in relative terms has led many to ask if the bull market is over. While Gold is correcting the ...




					thedailygold.com


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## Joules MM1 (19 March 2021)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eyPBwDmc/
		


game on, Watson


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## qldfrog (19 March 2021)

Took a while but that could be it.usd up, sharemarket strongly down yet PM unaffected and carrying on, weakly yes but still .in my naive view, we have seen the bottom for PM


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## Joules MM1 (24 March 2021)

peter2 said:


> As you know I'm bullish POG.  I'm concerned that the pull back in the POG Thurs-Frid wasn't corrective. I think Friday's rally is wave B and we may see a wave C back down to 1700. If 1700 holds or wave C is truncated or price charges through 1740. We're off to the races.



..looks like we're on for a completion of that idea
liking 1714's xauusd


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## Joules MM1 (26 March 2021)

nice bid so far 
getting thru 1747 will bring a chase some short covering, getting thru 1755 front month contract will bring the fomo team


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/aSBkSruT/


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## Joules MM1 (30 March 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> nice bid so far
> getting thru 1747 will bring a chase some short covering, getting thru 1755 front month contract will bring the fomo team
> 
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/aSBkSruT/



my level to sell snapped, the front month cmc cfd suddenly shot upto 83% buy to open "all clients",
everyone buying the dip, no fear......this maybe the buy of lifetime for some,
however, as Paul Tudor Jones would say _losers average losers_

the larger downchannel is not far below, break that level and technical selling increases


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## Joules MM1 (31 March 2021)

under the guise of "optimism without naivety"
here's a technical probability
a simple down-up-down to complete an equality move that would be very bullish, keeping inside the larger downchannel,  in that it also completes a trad cup n handle
...there is a strong proviso in this idea, in that, technically,  a lower low today would exceed  the first swing down of 2011 altime high
(Sept 2011 thru Dec 2011)



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/P88geMT8/
		


given the rampant desire to be long and the lack of fear - that suggests the bigger fool theory is currently (on a US$ basis) the heavier risk


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## Balder (31 March 2021)

Interesting arguments being put forward by John Adams on Perth Mint Silver shortages.



Seen elsewhere much debate about actual physical prices but I’m starting to question whether globally there is a lot of physical Silver freely available?


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## explod (31 March 2021)

Balder said:


> Interesting arguments being put forward by John Adams on Perth Mint Silver shortages.
> 
> 
> 
> Seen elsewhere much debate about actual physical prices but I’m starting to question whether globally there is a lot of physical Silver freely available?




I've been accumulating physical silver for 20 years. For the first time of late it is getting very hard to acquire. Google up 10 ox bars and they can only be obtained at around 90% above spot.


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## Balder (1 April 2021)

explod said:


> I've been accumulating physical silver for 20 years. For the first time of late it is getting very hard to acquire. Google up 10 ox bars and they can only be obtained at around 90% above spot.



Interesting. Put that up hoping someone would give me a feel for it.

I’d be able to pick up around $495 - $515 at exchange rates, not quite the same premium (with overseas post on top). Thought expensive but maybe not and there is some truth behind the squeeze.


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