# ENG - Engin Limited



## Duckman#72 (19 January 2006)

I've been watching this small Australian phone company for some time. Had been as low as 6c only 3 months ago.

On the back of company announcement concerning sales growth, price has lifted from 16.5c to 21c at close of market.

My research leads me to believe that the share price might be getting a little ahead of itself. Maybe, thanks to the likes of Alan Kohlers report listed on the ASX suggesting 2006 would be the year of the internet stock people are investing.

What do others think? Share price fully priced or still has a way to go?


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## michael_selway (19 January 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> I've been watching this small Australian phone company for some time. Had been as low as 6c only 3 months ago.
> 
> On the back of company announcement concerning sales growth, price has lifted from 16.5c to 21c at close of market.
> 
> ...




Hi im not too sure about ENG but

"2006 would be the year of the internet stock people are investing"

what do u mean by that? which stocks in particular is it referring to?

Thanks

MS


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## Duckman#72 (19 January 2006)

Hi MS

In Alan Kohlers Report for 2006 he made 3 predictions. The boom areas being:

1. Resources - continued run
2. Aged Care
3. The Internet

He did not specifically mention ENG. He threw in Seek Ltd ,realestate.com (PBL).

Compared to competitors ENG appears to have the jump. They have large market share (of small but fast growing market).

I don't know how well regarded Alan Kohlers recommendations are, but there would be worse IT/internet stocks to purchase than ENG.

Duckman


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## sandik17 (21 January 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> I've been watching this small Australian phone company for some time. Had been as low as 6c only 3 months ago.
> 
> On the back of company announcement concerning sales growth, price has lifted from 16.5c to 21c at close of market.
> 
> ...





Duckman I think you're on the money.  This technology is the way of the future, and Engin seem to be targeting the families that are jumping on the broadband wagon.  Their service is excellent, and they are getting people who are not up in i.t. to sign up and use this technology.
I think this share will have a way to go yet...although, when the big telco's jump in on the action it may be a different story.  But who knows when that will be?


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## michael_selway (22 January 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Hi MS
> 
> In Alan Kohlers Report for 2006 he made 3 predictions. The boom areas being:
> 
> ...




Ic thx

Btw just one thing ive been wondering

is "internet" stocks same as "IT" STocks or same as "dot.com" stocks?

Cause in 2000 Dot.Com stocks when bust? esp in the US?

Thx

MS


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## TheAnalyst (22 January 2006)

I tend to agree that internet stocks are the way to go ...but which ones...i know of only one that has really stood the test of time and its mangement and board are comparable to those of the bluechips and that is Senetas.


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## sandik17 (25 January 2006)

These engin shares are just going up and up.  
Today they issues an announcement to the stock exchange for application for quotation of additional securities and agreement....
For 29 000 000 odd ordinary 14c shares....Does this mean that as a shareholder we could buy more shares at 14c...or will there just be more shares to trade.
Sorry, a bit of a newie here....Could someone explain this for me please?


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## TjamesX (25 January 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> These engin shares are just going up and up.
> Today they issues an announcement to the stock exchange for application for quotation of additional securities and agreement....
> For 29 000 000 odd ordinary 14c shares....Does this mean that as a shareholder we could buy more shares at 14c...or will there just be more shares to trade.
> Sorry, a bit of a newie here....Could someone explain this for me please?





These shares were issued as a placement to sophisticated investors and significant shareholders - it raised $4.1 million for the company.

Just having a quick look through the ann report 2005 raises some questions for me;

- VOIP is not new, what do engin offer that other companies (skype) don't
- They currently rely on vodaphone court settlement payments to show a profit in their accounts
- without vodaphone payments, and their current cash burn rate, how long would they last with limited cash (how long to become profitable)

??


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## jet-r (27 January 2006)

looks like that the compnay is putting some emphasis on the voip exchange box. notice their sale of products jumped from 500k in fy04 to 1.5m in fy05. Their distribution channel seems quite promising, that is probably the reason why their sales surged 61% in sept qtr and 81% in dec qtr. Im really looking forward to the half year financial statements for FY06.

even the technical side of the stock looks good. Its close to the resistence level of 27 cents. I hope it can breakout with the release of a positive half yearly report.


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## sandik17 (17 February 2006)

I've heard good things about Eng lately.  Much less negative posts on Whirlpool and the likes and they have started a pre-paid option through HT.
This is looking good!


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## sandik17 (23 February 2006)

Very positive announcement expected on the 27th...
These ones are on the way up!


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## sandik17 (1 March 2006)

CEO has told me the announcement is out 2nd week in March....and I'm topping up again before then....these shares are going places....watch this spot!


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## Duckman#72 (1 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> CEO has told me the announcement is out 2nd week in March....and I'm topping up again before then....these shares are going places....watch this spot!




Hello Sandik17

I am feeling sorry for you as you seem to be the only one interested in these sorry penny dreadfuls!!!ha

Although more and more people in our workplace are trialling Engine at home (if that helps). I hope the report delivers the good news you are expecting. Just don't max out the margin loan on them!

Duckman


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## sandik17 (1 March 2006)

don't be feeling sorry for me.  I don't need your sympathy!  I'm only letting you in on a good thing....I'll be sorry for you for not buying in when they hit the $1 mark!


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## Porper (2 March 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Hello Sandik17
> 
> I am feeling sorry for you as you seem to be the only one interested in these sorry penny dreadfuls!!!ha
> 
> ...




He isn't the only one holding Duckman, but I wouldn't call it a penny dreadful, they have got a lot of potential If things go according to plan.

A medium term investment for me rather than a trade.Of course it gets ramped a lot, but don't all low priced stocks.


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## sandik17 (2 March 2006)

Porper said:
			
		

> He isn't the only one holding Duckman, but I wouldn't call it a penny dreadful, they have got a lot of potential If things go according to plan.
> 
> A medium term investment for me rather than a trade.Of course it gets ramped a lot, but don't all low priced stocks.





Thanks Porper...for some reason Duckman seems intent on bagging out these shares, and my opinion of them!  Thanks for your input....apparently he doesn't value my opinion much, and yours may help!  Good to hear you're holding...and I rekon we're onto a good thing very soon!


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## Mumbank (2 March 2006)

Sandik17 and Porper  I hold these as well and I also don't think they are penny dreadfuls.  Their going places and it will be interesting to see the hy financials due out 9 March.  CHeers to you and me!!!!!!


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## sandik17 (2 March 2006)

Voice Box Enables VoIP Calls without PC

Traditionally, voice-over-Internet protocol (VoIP) technology has only been used by computer enthusiasts or large corporations that can afford to invest in the technology. However engin VoIP, from engin Ltd of Australia, has been designed to bring this same technology directly to consumer households. In its simplest form, engin allows any broadband user to make and receive calls using their existing phone at a very low price.

Ilkka Tales, CEO, said that engin is the first broadband telephony service to be broadly available to Australian consumers and businesses. The service has been designed to be simple to use and comes with a wide range of included features allowing the user to actively control their own calls. engin offers six products in the engin suite: engin Voice Box series 1&2, engin X-Pro, engin X-Lite, engin 1-way and engin switchboard, all of which provide affordable telecommunication alternatives to Australian consumers and small businesses.

engin Voice Box allows people to make and receive calls from any landline or mobile phone over their broadband Internet connection using VoIP technology. Tales said that people can make savings of up to 40% on their existing phone bills. engin also recently launched its updated engin Voice Box Series 2 with new features enabling consumers to slash mobile phone bills as well as traditional fixed line calls.

Voice Box plugs directly into the user's local area network rather than their PC. The advantage of using VoIP adaptors is that there is no need to be concerned about a computer crashing during an important call.

Voice Box Series 2 
The second version of Voice Box, which was released recently, addresses user concerns during an emergency and gives users the option of connecting their PSTN line to the box. So if power or Internet access is cut, when the user picks up their phone they hear a PSTN dial tone instead.

Connect any touch-tone, corded or cordless phone to the Voice Box 2 and it will convert an analog phone signal to digital so that it can be sent over the user's broadband Internet connection. This allows them to make and receive phone calls to any phone number worldwide.

The Voice Box 2 is also designed to be simple to use and has many features, including:

* Anywhere connect - if a user is away from the home or office but still wants to take advantage of their engin phone call system, they call their own phone number and are connected to their Voice Box 2 from that remote location. They are then able to make cheap phone calls to anywhere in the world. If a user rings overseas on a mobile phone, the call is free to their home number. They would just pay the engin charges to terminate the call for them overseas, thereby reducing mobile phone bill call costs as well as fixed line costs.

* Switchback - this allows the Voice Box 2 to automatically divert outgoing calls back to a customer's existing phone service in the event of a power or connection outage. 

* Landline ring through - this allows calls that are made to a user's existing landline phone number to ring through on the phone connected to their Voice Box 2. It allows the user to have two incoming phone numbers on the handset.

Trend towards VoIP 
According to Tales, within Australia 70% of broadband users access the Internet via ADSL. "However engin will work equally well over future forms of ADSL, cable, satellite, WiFi and broadband-over-powerlines (BPL) networks," he said. "In fact we were the first company to demonstrate VoIP calls over BPL within Australia.

"We currently lead the market in Australia in terms of market share and once we reach profitability which will happen in the next six months, we will start looking at expansion overseas - firstly through a partnership within Asia. engin is ideal in countries and regions where there are high levels of broadband penetration, such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Japan."

Tales added that proof of the strength of this trend towards VoIP in the consumer marketplace is the fact that British Telecom has now announced that it will switch off the old BT phone system by the year 2010 - and replace it with IP telephony.


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## Duckman#72 (2 March 2006)

Mumbank said:
			
		

> Sandik17 and Porper  I hold these as well and I also don't think they are penny dreadfuls.  Their going places and it will be interesting to see the hy financials due out 9 March.  CHeers to you and me!!!!!!




If my tongue-in-cheek email has achieved nothing else - at least I have flushed some more holders of ENG out of the woodwork for Sandik to talk to to!!

I will accept your "thankyou" Sandik.

Warm Regards

Duckman


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## pch (2 March 2006)

Hi

I don't hold this stock at all, but I have extensive experience in this industry and know VOIP and IP networking very well. (I have also worked for small public listed telcos and IT companies like this and I can tell you that it really is an over marketed, overhyped industry).

I am just curious as to whether people who are into this stock also have this background? A *lot* of the technicalities with VOIP are often overlooked and there are a lot of misconceptions about it. Depending on your ISP, the device at the end of the connection doesn't actually factor into things all that much *at all*.

What sets these guys apart from the Dlink's, Netgear and [insert high volume, low margin device vendor here] in this market as well as every ISP that can partner with the aforementioned vendors to do the same thing?

Just curious..


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## sandik17 (2 March 2006)

No, I'm not in the 'industry' of voip...but I do use it.  And I am knowing more and more people who are.  VoIP helps make Broadband affordable, and Engin is the company who is advertising, and making it very easily accessible to the 'average joe's' out there, who don't have the time to set up an intricate voip system with perhaps more technical gear or cheaper deals.
They have had a few teething problems as the company has grown at such an enormous rate (eg customer support etc), but are aware of these issues and are working to and have resolved them.
Watch this space....


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## pch (2 March 2006)

Without getting into complex details, here is one problem they cannot really get around..

Residential grade broadband is massively oversubscribed by ISP's. That is, if an ISP has 100000 customers at 1.5mbit is their upfeed bandwidth 100,000 * 1.5mbit? Hell no..  in fact its probably oversubscribed by a factor of 20-40 to 1. 

That means the connection your *ISP* has to the internet is nowhere near the capacity to handle all users at once. 

Thus at peak times, even though you have a fast connection, you will often not get the full bandwidth your ADSL allows. Residental DSL is so low margin. To give you an idea, a 1 hour tech support call would wipe out 3-5 months of margin for that customer. Hence why ISP's will always finely balance how much bandwidth they share between all the residential customers to keep costs down. (And with Telstra abusing their position to prop up their ailing margins, its likely to get worse).

If you ask an ISP how much a business grade DSL service costs (with bandwidth guarantees) the price goes up a lot.

Most of the time you don't really know the level of congestion in an ISP network. Most ISP traffic is the downloading of peer to peer traffic and you have to wait for that. Web pages are also non delay sensitive.

But with voice, you need instant response. 

Unless the VOIP provider is also the ISP, and they control the traffic from your house to the point where they connect you to the telephone networks, how can they prioritise voice traffic over the other crap? They can't - because they do not own the network and thus have *no* control over how the ISP's treat that voice traffic. Those same ISP's compete with them, and do you think for 1 minute they will co-operate in this?

So this is where my skepticism lies.. and I would bet on companies that also own the network infrastructure because they are likely to be able to offer a more stable customer experience. This is because they can tailor their networks to ensure that voice traffic always gets priority over other forms of internal traffic. 

Anyway thats just my take, and like I said I don't hold the stock so I have no interest either way.. Its about the only industry where I have some degreee of knowledge


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## shy (3 March 2006)

I don’t own the stock but I am using the engine box. I have bought it for the international calls. I think that is where it fits best. There are two issues that I have with it. One as pch said, it does have problems during peak hours. As much as it sounds funny it works great for international call not so much for local. This is because (IMO) local calls are made at day time and at least my international calls are made early morning or late at night due to the time difference. And those are the off peak hours. The other issue is that you still need to have a normal phone line for the ADSL. If and when the legislation will change and Telstra, or anybody else, will not charge a bundle for the ULL it might be more attractive. Cable users do not need to have a phone line to have broadband but for now ADSL is more popular since everybody has a phone line. 

As for the stock. Don’t forget that in IT term this is still a “startup” company. If they do succeed you will see a lot of competition coming from all sorts of directions. 
At can be the network providers the ISP and who knows, maybe Microsoft will decide to go into it and then ENG does not have much of a chance.

 Just imho.


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## IGO4IT (3 March 2006)

shy said:
			
		

> As for the stock. Don’t forget that in IT term this is still a “startup” company. If they do succeed you will see a lot of competition coming from all sorts of directions.
> At can be the network providers the ISP and who knows, maybe Microsoft will decide to go into it and then ENG does not have much of a chance.
> 
> Just imho.




Hi Shy,

I had the same idea, but with further reasearch, I realised that by the time there will be another competitor to eat from same pie, economies of scale will work for ENG's benefit.

the TELCO industry is huge & very popular & commerical. which in my idea even that there will be other competitors that can do better prices & better technology, ENG will then still be able to compete "head to head" with the big TELCO companies because of the market share it will hold at the time. That by itself is an increase in value for ENG - stepping our of a small player to a big player.

Also, in my rules book, I put watching technology stocks very close as rule #1, the market is constantly growing, updating & very rapidly as well. so if any change to market on long run imo it won't happen overnight.

so if competition appears, ENG will compete on same level of big companies & that will make it a big company & will attract more customers regardless of the quality of the product they're offering just because people know that they're big & will at least try to compare their offers with other giant competitors. same example are current small ISPs who for no reason still growing while optus & Telstra could in many cases provide cheaper options.

imo, this stock should be safe for at least 2-3 years without any dramatic competition fears to arise.

that my


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## sandik17 (3 March 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> Hi Shy,
> 
> I had the same idea, but with further reasearch, I realised that by the time there will be another competitor to eat from same pie, economies of scale will work for ENG's benefit.
> 
> ...




Love ya IGO$IT....couldn't have said it better myself....Love your 2 cents!  We're in for a big week, and few months I rekon!


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## Duckman#72 (4 March 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> Hi Shy,
> 
> I had the same idea, but with further reasearch, I realised that by the time there will be another competitor to eat from same pie, economies of scale will work for ENG's benefit.
> 
> ...




Hello Sandik 

While your exerberance towards this stock is admirable I must agree with comments made by IGO4IT.

ENG is a very small player in a very big market. Sure ENG is experiencing double digit subscriber growth each quarter but.......they need to as the margins in the telco industry are absolutely miniscule. Don't get too carried away with rocketing subscriber numbers as to my knowledge they haven't looked like turning a profit yet.

Also, at the end of the day what exactly does ENG own. A subscriber base? That's it. Once the big boys get serious about taking the market - Telstra, Optus and the like could well crush ENG. Why haven't they, you ask? Because they are too busy protecting their current customer base.  

You ain't going to survive in this industry without volume, and I admit they are obtaining that at present but the playing field can change very quickly. While ENG is currently at the forefront of attracting new users of VOIP technology, I would suggest that not everyone is as loyal as Sandik. 

Some brandings are important for the majority of consumer goods such as vehicles. food & beverages and clothes - I would be suggesting that the majority of people would swap from ENG to NEW COMPANY LTD without hestitation if it meant an additional savings per month. 

If you go to the ENG website the primary selling point is cost savings - and the problem with attracting customers on that basis is that they will be the ones leaving you when a better deal arrives. 

I look forward to seeing the report out next week Sandik and hope that its positive news but don't let the share price get ahead of it's fundamentals.

I agree with IGO4IT in that, in the short term ENG may continue its strong growth but I've serious concerns for its longevity. By all means - stay on the phone as the price rises but just know when to hang up.

Best Wishes
Duckman


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## IGO4IT (4 March 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Hello Sandik
> 
> 
> If you go to the ENG website the primary selling point is cost savings - and the problem with attracting customers on that basis is that they will be the ones leaving you when a better deal arrives.
> ...




Hi Duckman,

I agree that ENG current strategy is to attract those who are looking to save, which is bad as there will be no loyalty when a rival comes along with more savings to offer.

Lets look at it subjectively, the whole Telco business is about savings. since early 1970s the quality of phone call is practically the same & all what you can compete with in Telco market is how much less can consumers pay for the same exact phone call.

so regardless wether its IP or this new invention to make phone calls thru your hand watch, the average consumer find no fashion, no trend & no extra features in their "HOME" lines that technology can offer, the average consumer at home is looking for saving because a phone call is a phone call, if you pay less for it then good on you, if you pay more then you need to switch to someone that can give the same exact thing but cheaper!

so ENG is not offering anything else other savings because industry doesn't have anything else to offer.


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## IGO4IT (4 March 2006)

Also guys don't forget, next generation communications of _VIDEO CONFERENCING_ is a lot cheaper thru VOIP than phone lines. 

Thru IP based communication, its just bandwidth that you're using with a standard hardware to buy at home or office, while if using normal phone lines I think you need to change underground cables to be compatible to this technology, of course even if that will happen, normal phone line infrastructure costs to make it compatible will be too expensive & then we go back to square 1 that it has to happen on IP based communication.

so even out of a standard phone line to a video conferencing, it HAS to be IP based & whoever has the "know how" & the size at that time may lead the market.


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## sandik17 (4 March 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Hello Sandik
> 
> 
> to my knowledge they haven't looked like turning a profit yet.
> ...




Duckman,
Word is that there is going to be news of profit, if not this announcement, then next...which as you know can only lead to bigger and better things for the company....

As for people 'jumping ship' with a better/cheaper offer...many of the eng 'customers' are actually businesses, and I don't believe many of those will be keen to change their whole phone setup to save a couple of dollars a month??
Keeping along those 'jumping ship' lines, you forget that it is also ease of use that is assisting Eng.  People like 'mum and dad' who are not terribly computer literate can install and use Engin.

I know it's hard to find loyalty such as mine in this day and age....but one can't argue with a good thing (and for me a 9c share to 25c in 3 months is pretty darn good!)  Enjoy 'watching' the ride.....you could've been on it too!


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## Duckman#72 (4 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> Duckman,
> Word is that there is going to be news of profit, if not this announcement, then next...which as you know can only lead to bigger and better things for the company....
> 
> I know it's hard to find loyalty such as mine in this day and age....but one can't argue with a good thing (and for me a 9c share to 25c in 3 months is pretty darn good!)  Enjoy 'watching' the ride.....you could've been on it too!




Hi Sandik

Thankyou for your views and prompt reply.

I love that phrase......"word is".  

It can start so many sentences; "word is Santa will visit tonight", "word is Melb horse 6 race 6 has been set for this race", "word is we're breakin out tonight boys". Regardless of the context, it implies the same thing - it brings with it hope. And I think that is what is driving this stock more than anything else - hope.  I "hope" for your sake I'm proven wrong. 

You said that one of the attractions of ENG and VOIP was ease of use and implementation, then you mentioned that businesses wouldn't go through the hassle of changing companies for a few dollars. Well which one is it - "a hassle" to get connected or "quick and easy" to get connected?  You will say anything!!!

I cannot argue with your logic about watching the fantastic share price rise from 9c to 25c. That's only great if you don't watch the price fall back down to 9c again. 

As Rove says - say hi to your Mum for me.

Duckman


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## sandik17 (4 March 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Hi Sandik
> 
> You said that one of the attractions of ENG and VOIP was ease of use and implementation, then you mentioned that businesses wouldn't go through the hassle of changing companies for a few dollars. Well which one is it - "a hassle" to get connected or "quick and easy" to get connected?
> 
> ...




Quite obviously you haven't delved into VoIP very much Duckman.  You see part of the attraction of Eng is just that...it's easy setup...as opposed to 'dodgy bro's' cheaper VoIP service.  Yes, there are many, many other VoIP providers who are offering even cheaper services than Engin, but they are much harder for the everyday user to set up.
So you see VoIP CAN be "a hassle" to connect with some providers, yet "quick and easy" with Engin. 
A trip to Harvey Norman/Dick Smith/Tandy/HT/Big W/Leading Edge/Office Works  ... is all you need to get started.  Surely you'd have one of them around, and you'd learn for yourself how easy it is to get set up with VoIP.


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## pch (4 March 2006)

Can you list some examples of their competitors that are harder to set up? Iinet give you a box and you plug it in, just like Amnet. 

Those guys can bundle your voice + internet together - one bill, better quality of service.. This argument seems very subjective..

I read their 19/1/06 market update and their financials from the 04/05 financial year. Seems to be a hard stock to figure out. They had a dispute with Vodafone and without those proceeds went backwards.. a lot of the stats they used in their market update about voip uptake stats didn't mean much because VOIP at the carrier level and voice at the last mile are completely different yet they used carrier stats. 

They had only $600000 of cash at the end of 05 and had to offer a private placement to some intitutional investors gave for another $4.1 mil.

The relationships with the retailers is definitely a plus.. but without a relationship with a major ISP, I can see a lot of their market share eroded in future..

I worked for an ISP who was one of the first nationally to offer broadband - and that ISP no longer exists


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## sandik17 (4 March 2006)

pch said:
			
		

> Can you list some examples of their competitors that are harder to set up? Iinet give you a box and you plug it in, just like Amnet.




I know from spending time on whirlpool that astratel are not easy to set up and their customer service is almost non-existant.


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## pharaoh (4 March 2006)

Guys

I have read thru your entire thread. 
Duckman, I understand your thoughts, but you seem very negative to the stock, unless you are just trying to make some kind of moral point. 

I am actually in the industry, and I know why ENG will not only succeed but also return a healthy return to investors. 

1. You mentioned Iinet. Come on, Engin have by far, massively better priced plans than Iinet and others. So, 10c anywhere in Aust, 29c to mobiles. Do the research, none compete. 

The others are too hard to set up, and use - I have tried a few now. 
I use my normal cordless Uniden, works great. QOS is on the router I use, so it rocks. 

2. Ease of use - within 6 minutes I was up and running

3. Market and exposure - Advertising on TV, radio etc. Also, I called them on friday and they had an ABC TV crew just leave, doing an article on how well they are doing, which will be aired shortly. 

4. Cashflow - you mentioned they weren't even turning a profit - they are on track for mid year break even. They released those share placements to generate money for marketing etc. 

5. New subscribers - on friday I called and pressed 1 for sales. After 29 mins I got put thru. Yes, it sucks being on hold that long, but hey, the guys said there were ****loads of people, all day, lined up to sign up. 
2GB did a phone in on VOIP and heaps of people talked up Engin and how good it was. 

Sandick, good on you for picking this one. 

I only hold a few thousand shares, and didn't get it as early as 13c or so, but am a believer, as a very happy customer, and an investor, that you will see the sp rise to near $1 this year. 

Don't worry about one negative post, everyone else seems v confident, so you can be too. 

I will be buying more first thing monday morning, and holding for the next 12 months or so. 

Would be interested to hear your thoughts. 

Pharao


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## sandik17 (5 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Guys
> 
> I have read thru your entire thread.
> Duckman, I understand your thoughts, but you seem very negative to the stock, unless you are just trying to make some kind of moral point.
> ...




Thank you thank you thank you!!
It is so nice to hear someone in the industry give such support to this stock. I think Duckman could learn a lot from your wisdom. I too will be putting in another order on Monday. Bring on that report on Thursday! Well done pharoah - keep up the good work.


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## Duckman#72 (5 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Guys
> 
> I have read thru your entire thread.
> Duckman, I understand your thoughts, but you seem very negative to the stock, unless you are just trying to make some kind of moral point.
> ...




Hi Pharaoh

Thanks for your input. Sandik will be pleased!!

Firstly I was not trying to make a moral viewpoint although thankyou for reading it that way - you might enjoy some of my other posts in other threads. 

I wouldn't call myself "very negative" towards this stock. I don't like labels but if I have to I would classify myself as "pessimistically cautious". I could say the same thing in return to you - as you seem very positive towards the stock. We both have our beliefs and arguments but it doesn't mean either of us are correct.

Just to let everyone know - I am not a ENG shareholder, nor have I ever been. I am not in the IT/telco industry. I do not subscribe to ENG nor to any of its competitors. Where am I going with this? Unlike yourself, Sandik, Porper and Mumbank it doesn't bother me at all what the share price does. One might argue that being at arms length with this stock enables me to be a little more objective than others.

I read your comments and take them on board but just like Sandik your post is full of "promise and hope" stuff. It frustates me when people write "the SP should rise to near $1 by the end of the year" without any real fundamental supporting arguments. Why should the price near $1? Because of the good vibes experienced on the Whirlpool forum? Or based on the report to be shown on the ABC soon? Or perhaps the poll taken on 2GB? 

I agree that it is an exciting little company but let's chill out and reflect on the facts. I am just trying to bring a little balance.

ENG is a very small player in an extremely competitive market where margins are tiny and you need volume, volume, volume of subscribers. They currently do not have enough subscribers to even breakeven let alone pay a dividend (although I admit that market share has experienced strong growth). They market themselves on ease of use and pricing which is basically the same as the dozens of other VOIP providers. (If you don't believe me, just goggle "voip providers" and have a compare). Finally- don't forget that Telstra and Optus haven't seriously entered the market. ENG should make hay while the sun shines.   

At the end of the day, if the share price hits $1 around Christmas and you all sell out - wonderful, I will be wrong and you will have made some tidy profits. I wish you the best of luck with that. But if it doesn't happen then it will make some of these positive, optimistic posts appear like no more than hopeful ramping.

Regards

Duckman


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## pharaoh (6 March 2006)

Hi Sand And Duckman

I think we all have our opinions on our stocks. Duckman, you make some good points, and one or two are a bit astray or could be more precise. i.e. # of subscribers to break even - let's just see on thurs, with the ann. When they get to 30k subscribers they will be trading profitably. 

There is no point arguing our points even further, I have never been accused of ramping and never want to, and am sure Duckman doesn't want to be seen as overtly negative towards one stock for emotional reasons. 

So, I'll personally just post any updates I feel are worthwhile, and try to keep emotion out of it - you have to be impressed with that white flag duckman 

You make some good points, and I guess it is best to accept that ENG is a little company doing extremely well right now, and is early days. 

I will close by saying that this week the proof may be in the pudding, in terms of seeing if it is now doing as well financially as it is in signing up subscribers and marketing itself.

Duckman, I have seen you post a bit, and you seem well respected, so I am sure you can respect me comments above and lay off a little, especially if the results are good this week. 

It's best if we can all post updates on stocks we like without being worried about constant negative posts (you included with stocks you like), constructive points of view are always welcome, of course.  

I don't get emotionally entagled in stocks, but for some reason, "believe" in this one and always have. 

Thanks for the well wishing on the stock in the end, I do also hope it gets to that point, and will be keeping fingers crossed this week. 

Good luck with your investments.


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## Duckman#72 (6 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Hi Sand And Duckman
> 
> I think we all have our opinions on our stocks. Duckman, you make some good points, and one or two are a bit astray or could be more precise. i.e. # of subscribers to break even - let's just see on thurs, with the ann. When they get to 30k subscribers they will be trading profitably.
> 
> ...




Hi Pharoah

I accept the white flag and offer my own peace pipe in return!

Your post makes a lot of sense.  

Good luck with the report on Thursday and go easy on me if the SP immediately rockets!!

Regards

Duckman


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## pch (6 March 2006)

My posts were also not 'anti' this stock, but based on my experience working for such companies..  I personally like to see lots of negative comments on forums because it helps me to test/validate my fundamental assumptions and somethimes people come up with things that I have overlooked. Don't take it personally..

Also IInet's experience has been an interesting one for me which I think can happen to any Telco. Friends of mine that I highly respected (including probably the best person in his field in WA) were hired by IInet. From there, I know that they were going to do well (that was at 60c).

They have since made solid profits, had phenomenal growth and had a great return.. until Telstra restarted its fight with the ACCC and the stock vaule went from $3 to $1.50.

Keep a very close eye on competitors. Just because a company is the first to something, doesn't mean they will win. 

Good luck with them


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## pharaoh (6 March 2006)

Hi guys, thanks for the feedback. 

And don't worry duckman, I won't brag when it does go up. 
Or, will try not to anyway


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## IGO4IT (6 March 2006)

just few questions for those who may think subjectively about this stock:

1. which current competitor are you scared of to take on the action from ENG now or within 1 year?

2. why do you think that this company will not grow (I'm not talking about $1/share in 12 months, I'm talking about normal growth)?

I think the arguement was always about what's good about this company, I would love to hear about what would STOP ENG from growing "NORMALLY" in the NEXT 12 MONTHS?

I hate to be 1 of those that are always scared of the unknown & also of those that are not being able to believe themselves when they could have a real winner just because life is too harsh to be that good!

lets all remember were not selling tomatoes in the veg. market here, this game we're playing has logics that we like to believe that work, they don't work all time nor ever they just fail. we just like to think negatively until proven positive & I hate that about myself!!

would love to hear from you.

cheers.


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## Porper (6 March 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> I hate to be 1 of those that are always scared of the unknown & also of those that are not being able to believe themselves when they could have a real winner just because life is too harsh to be that good!
> 
> we just like to think negatively until proven positive & I hate that about myself!!
> 
> ...





IGO4IT, strange that you obviously think you are negative with a nickname like yours.Maybe that is how you want to see yourself.Anyway not getting into all that stuff.

As for ENG, fundamentally I wouldn't have much of a clue, suffice to say, have a look at the chart of ENG, a very easy pattern to see ............................ it's going up after numerous consolidations.This tells me that the fundamentals of the company are getting better, no disputing that as the value of the company is going up !! If the trend changes substantially I will be out, nothing complicated about it.

If you are going to get it wrong and we all do, often in fact, only be a bit wrong.By that I mean get out quick when it turns against you.


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## IGO4IT (6 March 2006)

Porper, that's exactly my point, I "personally & not sure about others" don't love or hate a company, I go with signs & if positive I take a chance.

most of the time tech analysis & logical growth/competition factors make sense & translate SP of any stock to go higher or lower. nothing guaranteed of course!!

all arguements were about "what ifs" which I don't think is right. If I see any "physical" &  particular competition fear or if my trend is weak I run away with my money to other stock who has potential. 

so far, all what we have are what ifs & may bes.

cheers,


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## pch (6 March 2006)

IGO4IT

It depends on your intentions. I'm a buy and hold person and I don't use TA at all.. I rarely sell and prefer to build up dividend income to supplement my regular income. I'm not anti TA either, its just doesn't suit me. So whether you agree or disagree philisophically with my investing style hopefully you can see where I'm coming from.

I only posted (perhaps to my peril ;-) to this thread because I am in the ISP/Telco industry, have worked for small publicly listed telcos and I know about the VOIP and can deciper the fluff from the company reports. Not because I like or dislike the stock..

I was trying to offer a perspective in about the only industry I know anything about   I recommend this book is you *really* want to learn about VOIP but trust me - you don't 

http://www.ciscopress.com/title/1587050145

So you may rightly argue that my attitude is a direct result of bad experiences in working in this industry - and you'd be dead right! Telco decision making goes like this.. "We have two options, A and B. Option A is half the cost of option B, but will not look as good when we announce it to the ASX, so lets go with option B"

In relation to your question of competitors, I did see just today that Primus are getting in on the act..

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,18363220^15306^^nbv^,00.html


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## IGO4IT (6 March 2006)

Hi pch, 

I work in the industry as well & I design networks & configure the cisco routers for companies to connect all their branches thru VOIP.

I see your point that those who are looking for a long term hold would be a little paranoid about this stock (long term here I think is more than 2-3 years), imo,Technology stocks with all forms & sorts are NOT long term holds (technology upgrades & competition is too fast for any company to last for 5 years as a leader!) & tech. stocks will never give you the peace of mind of forgetting about them. I actually argue that any stocks are!!.

my point here is, if you want to play safe, then we all know the options available to play it safe, this stock is risky being a tech. stock but with short to medium term potential in my opinion. I'll never argue that even telstra has a VOIP product in the market now! but it doesn't erase the fact the ENG has new customers coming in everyday, they could be good or lucky, in a 1-2 years view no one should really care as long as they're growing & making profits.

I think the golden rule with tech. stocks is: watch it or you lose it!

so risk here is same as others but a bit more potential with it carrying new technology & savings,etc...tomorrow, technology could be old or competition is very taugh then you ride the new rival who promises to change the world if you like their story. 

long term stocks that you could forget about without any worry??? I would like anyone to tell me JUST ONE !!! I'll put all what I have in it & sit on the beach & get a tan  I think that's a myth!


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## sandik17 (6 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Hi guys, thanks for the feedback.
> 
> And don't worry duckman, I won't brag when it does go up.
> Or, will try not to anyway




I appreciate your gentlemanly way Pharoah, but I can't afford to be so kind.....I'll be rubbing it in ....with SALT!!!


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## Duckman#72 (6 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> I appreciate your gentlemanly way Pharoah, but I can't afford to be so kind.....I'll be rubbing it in ....with SALT!!!




......ahhhhh - Sandik - why? why? why?  

I sit before you a beaten, pitiful man. A shell of an investor who can take no more - yet you continue my persecution. My back is raw from the whippings, my face bruised from the blows and still you attack. Have you no mercy?

Now you tell me you are getting the salt ready - well mind that you don't spill the saltcellar as Judas did at the Last Supper. We don't want any bad luck before the release of Thursday's report do we?  

Please forgive Sandik for all those things she does against me.

Duckman


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## Duckman#72 (7 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> I appreciate your gentlemanly way Pharoah, but I can't afford to be so kind.....I'll be rubbing it in ....with SALT!!!




Incidentally - did you know that salt was once more valuable than gold? We get the word salary from the Roman word _salarium_ as the Roman soldiers were paid in salt. It was a universal currency. 

So if you do happen to spill some of the salt you are getting ready to rub into my wounds, for good luck, make sure you throw some over your left shoulder. Oh dear! That's devilishly ironic isn't it!!? When you stop and think about it - it's a bit like throwing money away. All roads seem to be leading us back to ENG shares.........and I _so_ wanted to go the other way.

Safe Travelling

Duckman


----------



## pharaoh (7 March 2006)

Hi guys

Sorry, I couldn't log on until today, and I missed out on all the fun it seems. 
Duckman, don't worry, Sandik and I will both be courteous...

Sandik, let's not get Duckman offside, he may even buy into ENG after Thurs, you never know 

On IG's posts;

1. which current competitor are you scared of to take on the action from ENG now or within 1 year?
**** I guess Primus would have to be a threat. They have a huge customner base, but are losing a lot of it to ENG and others, hence this decision to bite the bullet and come in line with what was inevitable. 

I often think, that competition is sometimes a positive thing. What it does is create awareness, especially important when new technology is concerned. 

People may read Primus's letters on VOIP, and look around at their options. ENG advertises on TV a lot, and is getting a lot of brand awareness, so I think this will certainly help in fact to get consumers thinking that VOPI is not  techie thing, but a serious option for them at home. 

Look at the US, the bells have not taken the market from Vonage and the smaller companies, awareness has grown, and everyone has benefited by it.  

2. why do you think that this company will not grow (I'm not talking about $1/share in 12 months, I'm talking about normal growth)

Hmmm, this is a tough one. 
Growth seems to be about 65% month on month at the moment. That will have to slow, let's face it. 

Perhaps competition will slow it down, or they may simply fail to show diferentiators in the market, but that's probably unlikely, as they won't want to lose their huge advantage after working so hard to make it a household name. 

Sorry, not really sure I answered that too well.

Salt huh, wow. I didn't know that. I guess it wouldn't have been a very good currency system, perhaps a bit messy...

Anyone got any thoughts on the movements of the stock anyway, in the lead up to the announcement?


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## IGO4IT (7 March 2006)

being quite before an expected good ann is my opinion a good sign of a sudden increase on the news.

others keep going higher in anticipation in few days before ann which discounts the good news even if they were excellent.

I think we may see some action tomorrow especially before close & definetely a lot of action on thursday.

Looking to the chart, resistance is at at 27.5c & that's my only worry at the moment. 

 if resistance point was broken, on the top of the chart.....I see a lot of alcohol consumption & happy people dancing


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## pharaoh (7 March 2006)

Good stuff IG

I will keep the seaview brut in the fridge, or moet if it breaks 30c
Think will top up a bit tomorrow again, it was at 24c this afternoon at close, so is a bit of a bargain now.


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## sandik17 (7 March 2006)

Yehaa! I can't tell you how exciting it is for me to find others who believe in this company.     I have to admit Duckman had almost convinced me that I was the only one supporting this stock, and that it was a dud...it's hard to forget the old 'penny-dreadful' comment!

Anyway, it's exciting...if not nervous times ahead for eng.  Apparently one of Duckman's concerns was this stock getting ahead of itself...so it is a good thing there's not a lot of upward movement pre Thursday's announcement.  (Firstly cause it's allowed me to buy in some more...and secondly because it will allow room for movement on Thursday).

In regards to movement of stock....just watch the dial on Thursday! :jump:


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## pharaoh (7 March 2006)

Hey Sand'

Yes, I have always been a fan - did you buy at 6c?
I am sooo upset with myself. Can you imagine, if my $5k was invested then, would be sitting on $20k now. Ha;fway to a deposit for a unit...

A friend working for a fund mgr actually talked me out of it back then, saying, "don't put your money into a small one like that" - doh.

Once the ann comes, what in ur opinion could it be looking at closing out the week at?

I am hoping well above 30.

I guess I hope it has got this far on spec, and i'm hoping on thurs it will prove the value per share to investors, based on what financials they report. 

People are happy to drive the sp up and up as long as they know they are making money, or will be.


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## sandik17 (7 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Hey Sand'
> 
> Yes, I have always been a fan - did you buy at 6c?
> 
> ...




I originally started getting 'interested' at 9 and bought in (like you against others' advice) at 11.  I did sell at 16 and bought in again at 19.  So many people just have no idea how good VoIP is, and how accessible it can be for people.

You mentioned the moet at 30...I rekon 30 is do-able very soon, maybe even by Friday this week if this ann is as good as I expect...so I'm holding the moet till they hit 50...and I don't think that'll be too long either!!

I make no secret of the fact that I think the ann. is going to be FANTASTIC!  When this stock starts showing a profit they are going to be in a position to expand and the sky's the limit really...


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## pharaoh (7 March 2006)

Cool

I heard maybe expanding into Asia, can't remember where or when though.


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## Duckman#72 (7 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> Apparently one of Duckman's concerns was this stock getting ahead of itself...so it is a good thing there's not a lot of upward movement pre Thursday's announcement.




Hello Sandik

I am beginning to think that.........you don't like me very much.......but I just tell myself - we always hurt those that are closest to us. I must mean a lot to you, so I will continue on with our good natured debate:

........not a lot of upward movement.......??!!!! You can't be serious!!!??  

ENG shares have more than tripled in value over the past 3 months!!! How much more "UP" do you want leading into a quarterly report!!!

This has been my argument all along - the market has already factored the anticipated good news into the ENG share price. The price hasn't risen based on the fundamentals tabled at the last meeting that's for sure!! Unless in this crazy modern world shares triple in value when companies report on future losses. The SOLE reason for the surge in this company is the "growth factor". 
Unless ENG management have some other exciting news to report on other than the increased (and totally expected) subcriber numbers I can't see a breakout of any serious note. 

Although... Sandik - let me say this. Regardless of the outcome on Thursday - you will be a winner! Thanks to my "penny dreadful" comments you have discovered a whole world of posters that share your love of ENG - and you appear to have appointed yourself their spiritual leader. My concern is that you are leading your tribe of ENG warriors based on classic irrational investor behaviour. If you get a chance look up the terms Anchoring, Cognitive Dissonance, Availability Bias, Over-Confidence, Herding and Conservatism Bias on the internet. Your people look to you for strong leadership and guidance now - do not let them down!

All the Best 

Duckman


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## pharaoh (7 March 2006)

I thought we had the white flag going....

I agree Duckman, Sandik does have to be a little more relaxed though, put it down to enthusiasm. You know how some people bite when their fav stock is, well, not criticised, but...examined, let's say. Cos they are emotionally tied to the company. I have to agree, with ENG, it's the only one I am also tied emotionally to. 

She isn't critical of any of your postings, so if she holds back abit, i'm sure you'll give ENG a go. 

For the record, your post did bring a smile to my face, was definitely worth the read.


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## Duckman#72 (8 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> I thought we had the white flag going....
> 
> She isn't critical of any of your postings, so if she holds back abit, i'm sure you'll give ENG a go.
> 
> For the record, your post did bring a smile to my face, was definitely worth the read.




G'day Pharaoh - I'm glad I raised a smile and you took the post the right way.


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## pharaoh (8 March 2006)

Watch this space, may have some interesting pre announcement news to post tonight. 
Hopefully anyway, from a 3rd party...


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## IGO4IT (8 March 2006)

I'm looking at previous announcements & nothing was mentioned before on this year's first half performance of ENG, only 1 announcement of a growth of 81% in December which was published early Feb I think.

how was the expected growth factored in the price if we don't know what the growth is (if any) for the first half year?

the price had just came back from 27.5c without any further info than what we have now & there was nothing else related to industry at that time other than TELSTRA getting rid of pay phones!

I can only understand that the market had absorbed the good news if:

1. everyone is 100% positive its good new, which I doubt because some people here still arguing!!
2. when exact growth or loss is known & calculations start & estimatation of the real value of the share based on new potential & mngmnt ability starts.

to cut it short, I am the biggest believer & very optomistic about tomorrow's result but I'm not really sure about how good they are & I don't have figures to tell you what will the share price be like unless we get exact figures & how good they are.

skeptics are waiting & will buy when they're sure that ENG is REALLY going in the right direction.


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## pharaoh (8 March 2006)

Hi IG

I agree with you. 
I didn't want to challenge Duckman's post on the news being written into the current sp, for fear of being labelled bias. 

Imo it is certainly not in the sp now, very very far from it.

I am holding ENG and have topped up twice this week, I am very open about that. 

I seriously feel, imo, that the news will be very very positive, and hope to see that realised tomorrow. 

Of course, we won't know til then, so all we are talking about is speculation. 

I do know they are hiring loads more customer service staff at the moment to cope with the demand of calls and sign ups. That is a fact, it will be at least 20 staff, and they now will have about 150 staff - I found out during the week. 

I believe staff numbers were 80-100 last quarter 05. 

That is huge growth in such a short time. 

I and many others could be wrong of course, but imo tmrw should surprise many. 
No sleep tonight............


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## Mumbank (9 March 2006)

From Today's AIR Special Edition on Broadband:

_In Australia, Engin Limited, (ASX:ENG) provides a retail broadband VoIP service offering whereby any telephone can be plugged into an engin box, which allows users to make high quality calls nationally and internationally over any broadband network. The beauty of the engine system is that you don’t have to switch on your PC to make or receive calls. This is identical to the approach of US based broadband phone system Vonage (of Vonage Holdings Corp., NJ, USA) which has been like the proverbial cat amongst the traditional RBOC (Regional Bell Operating Company) pigeons,boasting some 500,000 customers and growing at a rate of 60,000 customers per month._

Nice little report that one.


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## pharaoh (9 March 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - Up from 24c open to 27c*

Thanks for the info Mumbank, that's good to see these articles coming in, there's been quite a few lately. 

btw, I hate waiting for announcements....


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## IGO4IT (9 March 2006)

looking froma subjective point of view, these guys financially are no better than previous year. (we have to disregard the VODAFONE money received as its not operational income)

so, if they could end up with same operations loss with a lot more customers & infrastructure to produce more customers then we're going in the right direction.

current stores selling products are big players, which means we're becoming more commercial than before.

Expantion in NZ is coming soon & break even point financially in June - July 2006.

More Net assets than previous period which means bigger infrastructure which is understandable, increasing customer base 3 folds in very short period will need very fast expansion costs in very short period of time.

I think this company is worming up to play the big boys game but sooner than what I expected. 

I think results are amazing & I hope people were not expecting $100M profit within the last 6 months  

I was thinking short term investment but I think I've just fallen in love   :1luvu:


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## sandik17 (9 March 2006)

Here are the announcements:

Dec 05 - Half Year Financial Results - Investor Presentation 
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ENG&E=ASX&N=403352

Half Yearly Report & Half Year Accounts 
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ENG&E=ASX&N=403350


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## pharaoh (9 March 2006)

Hi IG and Sand

Sorry I missed out on all the fun tonight, and posts. 
I was out all night and just got home. 

Am going to take the time to sit down and read the announcements now. 

I am sooooooooooo excited, I think from what I have read here and on other posts, that this is an amazing result. Some downplayed it a little, but that's cos they are d/t's probably. 

I am going to hold for 12 months at least, and top up when I can. 
Just wish I had bought 10k worth.....


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## pharaoh (10 March 2006)

*Nice - Engin Limited - almost 7m vol - just hit 32c*

go you good thing...


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## Lachlan6 (11 March 2006)

Thank you to this forum for putting me onto this little gem. Just reading a little about the fundamentals of this company and i really think its technology will take off. Just a question for other forum members, does ENG have any major competitors. Surely it would, could not be patented technology.

Anyway one look at the weekly chart shows how good this stock may be. This week it broke strong resistance at $0.25, on huge volume, the second highest in its history in fact. In fact the volume paints a really positive picture, people are buying into ENG in truck loads. I think its next major resistance may be fibonnaci 50% retracement at around $0.53, I am definently buying into this stock on Monday. And is that PE ratio of 8 correct? Surely not. If so, that is the proverbial cherry on top


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## sandik17 (11 March 2006)

Lachlan6 said:
			
		

> Thank you to this forum for putting me onto this little gem. Just reading a little about the fundamentals of this company and i really think its technology will take off. Just a question for other forum members, does ENG have any major competitors. Surely it would, could not be patented technology.




Hi Lachlan....glad we could be of help...it seems this stock has lovers and knockers!  It is very unchartered waters (except for the history of FRE) and many 'unbelievers' are very sceptical.  However if you can get past them...you'll do very well with these, as many of us have already done.

Admittedly I was disappointed with the report, while it was 'solid', it wasn't 'super' like I had expected. Although the market was certainly positive we will have to wait for the next announcement or two for that....but no problems, there's time!

Now, in regards to your question about the major competitors....well, there are certainly MANY competitors, however, the question is, are there any as good as eng?  And the share price and volume yesterday tells me...I don't think so.  ENG are certainly coming to the forefront in Aust with this technology.  They are also cutting into the small (and soon larger) business market.  ENG have spent a lot of money on advertising and are practically a household name.  It's all about getting the 'word' out there with this technology.  I use it, and it is really very good.  They have had teething problems as one could expect being leaders in their field, and with the sheer volume of people joining...however, they have employed many new staff to help in this area.

Many others offer voip, either not as competitively priced (10c an untimed phonecall anywhere in Aust is damn good!) or not as easy to set up.  This is very important for the people who don't have time to fiddle with settings etc to get this technology working.

Primus just entered the market and will certainly have a client base on the back of their internet subscribers...that will be interesting to see the impact that will have.  

VoiP makes broadband affordable to the everyday family.  It's just brilliant.
Welcome Lachlan...good luck with getting in on Monday...you won't be sorry!


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## Porper (11 March 2006)

I know most on here seem to be viewing the company on fundamentals, but a chart for those interested.

I have traded ENG twice now (just sold out) and done extremely well using the charts.

If all goes to plan we should be peaking about now, with a retrace to around 0.25 where I will be looking to get in again before the next push.Of course people in it for the long term need not worry too much.


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## pharaoh (11 March 2006)

Hi Lachlan, Sand and Porper

Lachlan, welcome to Engin
YOU have found a little gem, and many of us feel we will see it rise to great heights over the next few months. 

I use it at home, and love it, and have saved a fortune on phone bills. It's brilliant. 

I don't mind if it retraces to 25c, as porper said, I will be buying heaps more if so.

Buyers now support it, and when it does drop back, everyone jumps back onboard. 

You'll notice the market keeps raising and beating it's support levels, and that's what we should see ahead continue. 

Good luck to you, and spread the word


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## IGO4IT (11 March 2006)

sorry guys, what retrace are you talking about?

3 - 4 million shares traded at above 29c & it hit the 32 cents minutes before close.

A drop to 29c on close? You guys are not new to the game & of course brokers won't hold on to their stock over weekend & you know they have to dump it before close.

Volume on Friday was 8M shares which is double the average, expect a min of 4M shares to be traded on Monday & the the trend to continue to reach 35 -38c, I actually think we have a new support point at 29.5c that was just formed on Friday   

For those who dream of a 25c entry again, I have NOOOO IDEA what you're talking about. The trend is going strong & its volume driven so for it to reverse we need to see a whole week of no volume first, it will not retrace in middle of action :headshake


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## sandik17 (11 March 2006)

Thanks for the charts guys!  Certainly exciting times ahead....a tad uncertain perhaps...but exciting none the less.

Can't remember ever wishing a weekend away...but looking forward to business hours on Monday!


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## Porper (11 March 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> sorry guys, what retrace are you talking about?
> 
> 3 - 4 million shares traded at above 29c & it hit the 32 cents minutes before close.
> 
> ...




Maybe you are correct, maybe not, we will see. 

If ENG does push on,fine, there will always be another chance to catch the next action, so it going back to 0.25 is irrelevant really, just a possibility looking at it from where I sit.I am out for now until the dust settles from this little surge.


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## Duckman#72 (11 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> Admittedly I was disappointed with the report, while it was 'solid', it wasn't 'super' like I had expected. Although the market was certainly positive we will have to wait for the next announcement or two for that....but no problems, there's time!
> 
> Now, in regards to your question about the major competitors....well, there are certainly MANY competitors, however, the question is, are there any as good as eng?  And the share price and volume yesterday tells me...I don't think so.
> 
> ...




Hi Guys

I am with Porper. I think this could go either way.

Although the volume of shares traded was impressive - at the end of the day volume doesn't necessarily drive price. 8 Million shares were sold by people who were happy to get out. Don't forget there was a huge placement in early January at 14c with through institutional investors. I think on the back of the report plenty of investors would be pleased to get out with double of their money. The Financial Review didn't seem overly excited by the report (not that that means everything)  

As for competitors, I am pleased that Sandik has been doing her homework - Primus had a writeup in the papers this week about entering the Voip market with 10c phone calls.

I must admit - Sandik has really been doing her homework. Yes ENG has been burning money in marketing and promotion - money they received from the  Vodaphone payout last year.

Take some time to read the full set of financials - not the "investor spiel" they lodged with the financials. They were not a particularly impressive set of accounts. Sure the subscriber base is increasing - but its not making them any money. Forgetting the Vodaphone compensation why was revenue so poor?

In my opinion this company's SP is still running based on potential, and it could well make it - but until it looks a little more solid fundamentally I think there are companies like BMX that would prove a better investment for a similar outlay.  

Finally - Sandik - spiritual leader! I have to ask. Are you working for ENG? If not you should be!! _Practically a household name._ What planet are you from? You make me laugh girl!

Duckman


----------



## sandik17 (11 March 2006)

Duckman, 

You forget to put IMO (In my opinion) at the bottom of your post...not to mention NEG (negative slant taken on these shares).  

8 million wanting to get out....yes, but plenty of takers (up to 32c no less) wanting to get in too!  There was some big money being put into these shares, and lets face it...if you'd bought in at 11 and could sell for 30ish...you'd think about putting an order in too wouldn't you?  However, the faithful know that this has the potential to go a lot further.

You make it sound like you are surprised that I've done my homework....Why do you think I got into these shares in the first place.  You think I picked them to add to my portfolio just cause I liked their name.  I knew then they were going places!  

As for BMX being a better investment for similar outlay...well you'll have to be quick. It won't be long and eng will be taking over BMX's sp anyway, so please, keep to the BMX thread for ramping them to try to rally some support.

And finally Duckman....
a)  I don't work for Eng....
b)  I return the question back to you ..... What planet are you on if you DON'T think ENG is a household name...you even told us that some of the people at your work are using it????  You onlly have to surf the net, or pick up any magazine to see their advertising everywhere...or go into Harvey Norman, Office Works, Big W.....many others to see their product!

and
c)  what makes you think I'm a girl?


----------



## Duckman#72 (11 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> Duckman,
> 
> You forget to put IMO (In my opinion) at the bottom of your post...not to mention NEG (negative slant taken on these shares).
> 
> ...




Wow - don't get so defensive !! I am not attacking you personally. My post wasn't even that negative.

I'll respond best I can. 

Term like "the faithful know how far this can go" only helps my case that the SP is being driven by believers in "potential, hopes and dreams". Thanks for confirming my post. 

I never said I was *surprised* you had done your homework - I said I was pleased that you had. 

I have only written a handful of BMX posts and you will notice the last one was criticising Chicken for being too upbeat about the share price. Maybe I'm a serial negative ramper!!  

As for household name  - I thought being a household name meant exactly that being known IN THE HOUSEHOLD. Not being known down at work, surfing the net, Harvey Norman's, Big W or in magazines at the hairdressers.

Catch you later, Mrs Duckman is looking ravishing and the kids are over at a friends house.

Duckman


----------



## sandik17 (11 March 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Catch you later, Mrs Duckman is looking ravishing and the kids are over at a friends house.
> 
> Duckman




eeewww!  I would reply to the above post...only I read the last sentence, and have to switch the computer off....eewwww!


----------



## IGO4IT (11 March 2006)

the record breaking volume proves the point that many wanted to join the party before but were skeptic about what ENG could really achieve & surely the idea here is not the CURRENT financial performance but into the building up of subscribers numbers & the infrastructure to grow more customers.

some skeptics (or we may call them more conservative investors) may wait until ENG breaks even financially & they compare it apple to apple to others who are cash flow positive in the market in same industry & may be other industries & imo that will be the point where the share price will carry on a lot of REAL good will value that may put it wherever it could reach & that price will be decided on whatever people think VOIP is worth in future not ENG in particular.

the amazing increase in customers numbers didn't impress me personally because that chance of a company in ENG's size to grow fast is possible BUT to keep on the same growth rate is what's hard. it just proved to me the theory that VOIP sells & market is responding to the message positively & also that ENG management can handle the pressure & are going in same direction, not necesserily that I trust them running a billion dollar multinational corporation but at least I think they're good enough to take ENG to next stage.

to be honest, speculating on how the SP will go from here is totally incorrect, I see it to be a matter of a personal opinion of how much VOIP can grow in future, the real price will be when the conservative investors join in as a safe investment. that's when we'll see possibly very high price.

cheers, that's my


----------



## pch (12 March 2006)

Here are some interesting articles to read on this stock if your interested in gauging the fundamentals.. This first one seems to confirm what I suspected about dodgy ISP's and their use of bandwidth oversubscribing..

http://www.pcworld.idg.com.au/index.php/id;292717877;fp;2;fpid;1

One commentary below on the financials, but the articles is more balanced than the title suggests.. 

http://www.voipnews.com.au/content/view/1000/1/

This is direct feedback about a business grade VOIP trial which seems to be going okay..

http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/commun...minnow_goes_VoIP/0,2000061791,39236978,00.htm

This one is cause for concern and I don't recall reading about it anywhere. This sort of thing suggests internal organisation issues and a lack of process.. nothing unusual about process issues in small companies...just bad PR..

http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/securi...gin_s_CRM_system/0,2000061744,39212418,00.htm

Looking at whirlpool forums, opinion is mixed, but in saying that, they fare better than the vast majority of Broadband, VOIP or wireless providers.

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-search.cfm?s=1721&r=4562958


----------



## pharaoh (13 March 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - support lvl?*

Are we seeing a new support level for ENG now at 31c?


----------



## IGO4IT (13 March 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - support lvl?*



			
				pharaoh said:
			
		

> Are we seeing a new support level for ENG now at 31c?




I'm afraid yes, but also a very strong resistance at $0.32.

1 of 2 options with a bit of volume, to break resistance & go higher to the unknow or break support & go down to next support level of $0.29   

I was expecting a lot more SP increase BEFORE 32c resistance becomes that tough!


----------



## pharaoh (13 March 2006)

DOn't worry, it tends to do this I feel. 
It rises up, sits at a level for a short time, then moves back up again. 

Also, ABC TV is running a doco of some sort on Engin, they did a filming at their office about 2 weeks ago. 

Can't wait to see that aired, that should pump the sp, and numbers up nicely.


----------



## sandik17 (13 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Also, ABC TV is running a doco of some sort on Engin, they did a filming at their office about 2 weeks ago.
> 
> Can't wait to see that aired, that should pump the sp, and numbers up nicely.




I've been trying to find out when that is going to air...and on what program...7.30 report maybe???

I see there's someone joined the forum calling themselves engin...maybe they'd know?  
I was happy with trade today, slow and steady but still a nice little increase...and I'm sitting in 2nd place in the stock competition.


----------



## pharaoh (14 March 2006)

I emailed the ABC last night, will see if I get a reply. 

Second place???
What the...

What else did you pick


----------



## Engin (14 March 2006)

Sandik

Sorry I don't know but the program has been put on my look out for list. As for the nic, I've been in this stock since last September, and it's the one stock I own that I'm falling dangerously in love with. Something one should never do with shares.

But I can't fault the Management of the Company in delivering all they set out to do. This may well be the right stock in a very exciting industry at the moment with huge potential. 

Good luck and fortune to all holders


----------



## sandik17 (14 March 2006)

Thanks Engin, I spotted that you'd joined and was keen to find out if you were management or just a shareholder!
You're right, the more I hear about the management of this co. they're delivering the goods.
Welcome, and thanks for putting my mind at ease!  Wonder what the day ahead will hold????



			
				Engin said:
			
		

> Sandik
> 
> Sorry I don't know but the program has been put on my look out for list. As for the nic, I've been in this stock since last September, and it's the one stock I own that I'm falling dangerously in love with. Something one should never do with shares.
> 
> ...


----------



## sandik17 (14 March 2006)

Great day thus far...up another 6%, and twice as many buyers as sellers....looking good!


----------



## Lachlan6 (14 March 2006)

Got in today at 31.5c. Going to sit back now and enjoy the ride


----------



## jet-r (14 March 2006)

gez.  this thing got the momentum..  
wonder how long can it last.

Has anyone seen their financial statement? The growth of the expenses are as much as the revenue. The business is still losing money dispite the 80% sales jump. Are there anything that suggest the company is on track of beocming profitable?


----------



## pharaoh (14 March 2006)

Guys

I read an impressive post today on another site, from a member. 
It is a huge post, but trust me, is really well written, and gives you a great deal of understanding, inhis opinion, why it has done so well, and why it will continue to do so. 

Grab a coffee, sit back and read - it is in two seperate posts...
Let me know what you think

And I quote...

"I started jotting some thoughts on the weekend after reading last week's debate on this stock. I've had some industry exposure in the past, so thought I'd contribute my perception of past, present and future.

Got a bit side tracked with domestic responsibilities, so didn't quite finish it on the weekend.
So here it is now for what it's worth.

Although I keep a close eye on the figures reported, my choice for investing in Eng is not based on purely on traditional FA or TA techniques alone, I think in this PARTICULAR case, such a view would not provide the complete picture for its potential. This is a unique situation.

I've been a quiet Eng believer since 13.5c and accumulated to my capacity during the 13-15 stage.

Through some of the quiet periods, I also had to resist the urge to pull the trigger, particularly during the 21->16.5c dip. A tough call at the time, but in hindsight, certainly glad of it.

A couple of things that helped my restraint were 1) having a fair idea that the sophisticated instos were probably cashing in some quick profits after the 14c placement, and the other, reminding myself of the following points I concluded during my initial and ongoing due diligence/research into Engin (ENG).

1) imo Voip is part of a revolution which we are at the beginning of. It's the new killer application for the internet. In time imo, it will be a 'must have' product replacing the once considered irreplacable, fixed line phone of the 20th century.

2)Regardless of competition, ANY company equipped with the appropriate resources, infrastructure and licencing, expertise, (all significant barriers to entry btw) which can EFFECTVELY provide the service end to end, operationally and administratively (provissioning, call handling, billing, crm, etc) will imo survive and even thrive in some form (albeit some through consolidation).

Engin is doing this now and had approx a YEAR to grow and learn from the understandable teething problems in paving the way. Any new entrants regardless of scale, will have a similar learning curve with the additional challenge of taking on a well established brand which is already a market leader and fast approaching its 'pre-pubescent' stage so to speak (beyond teething)..

3) imo Engin has an excellent marketing model. Of the numerous voip providers in Oz today, who does the average Joe associate voip with I ask myself ?

4) in paving the way for this new application, Engin have planned and forcasted thoughtfully, informed the market appropriately and todate, DELIVERED...
Not an easy task given the technical complexity (network wise, not customer use wise) and interconnect hurdles, both finacial and technical, in providing a nation wide service (again significant barriers of entry), not to mention introducing a new product unknown outside the industry.

imo These guys know what they're doing!... very high on my priority list.

5) when they got the $$ for the vodaphone settlement,
the shareholders were paid in full.... to me a sign of INTEGRITY.... again very high on my list. They look after shareholders.

6) They're actively involved in shaping the industry... eg with input through bpl, acif,
etc... more leadership qualities.


----------



## pharaoh (14 March 2006)

continued....

Additional observations I made as we've progressed :

- respectable management and a highly competant technical team (have to be to get this far successfully)..
- Market Leader in providing Voip... with a year head start on new entrants.
- Established Brand with solid distribution channels.
- Economies of scale kicking in slowly but surely.

Also noticed their development is appropriately staged and imo, swift yet sensible (within their means). Future plans for network expansion, overseas expansion are imo well timed within existing capabilities. Sensible growth strategy (big picture wise)

- They've successfully capitalised on resources from their previous mobile reselling business (demonstrating effeciency and resourcefulness). Their foresight in changing its business model from what it was, to what it is, and where it's going, is to me, highly impressive. (They knew the big picture, saw what was coming and positioned and prepared themselves accordingly)

- going forward, imho, regardless of future competition, government regulation.. blah blah, Engin will be there, either as a dominant force, or the owner of significant market share. If acquired then in spirit, but whatever its position, it will be PROMINENT in Voip.

I say this because firstly, they've demonstrated to me, 4 commendable qualities to earn my respect.

-Astute forsight and vision with the drive and nouse to make it happen. (this is rare.. true leadership stuff). This places new entrants in perpetual catchup mode in just having to provide an equivelent service, let alone an enhanced differentiated one.

-Sensible approach to developing the business, particularly as a pioneer in Oz.

-Core skills (both managerial and technical) are of a high calibre to achieve what they've done..

-Well respected in the industry and broader community.

They've been the quiet achiever preparing themselves for over a year before the mass unveiling... (not with the continual empty hype as we've all synically come to
expect, but hype when appropriate and more significantly, with SUBSTANCE).

To me a company of good character.

And secondly, because of their current positioning within the big picture.
If I may elaborate... the following may also address some points raised in last week's debate.

Let me share a little background in illustrating why I believe so.

The tech (dot.com) stock hype of 1999-2000 which resulted in the bubble bursting, was simply ....premature. Dot.coms were selling ideas and concepts that the world was simply not equipped to embrace (quickly). There was no foundation to support the hype which imo was initially led by some amazing visionaries that were just way ahead of their time (of course the parasites quickly hopped on the bandwagon selling stupidity desguised as concepts for a quick buck...unfortunately tainting the true dot.com concept along with investor confidence).

Manufacturers needed the time to design and build the products, which they wouldn't consider without consumer demand. There could be no consumer demand as consumers needed the time for a gradual exposure in adopting and adjusting to new technology, Governing bodies needed the time to develop appropriate regulatory controls and establishing standards. There were no synergies between vendors and service providers.. All this on a worldwide scale required time... and not the 6-12 months touted at the time.

Well 6 years later here we are... governments, Industry leaders, manufacters, service providers, consumers... society... the World.... is now ready.

The tech revolution I'm refering to, consists of a myriad of applications designed for the internet, which is now sufficiently developed to provide the undelying platform or the foundation to support the new age.

Consumer awareness, available end products, associated carriage systems, appropriate regulatory controls and standards (on a worldwide basis) and most importantly, consumer demand now exists for marketing real products which could only be concepts back in 2000.

Voip is one of those applications. Its been around a long time, primarily in the Carrier and enterprise arena within closed networks. Acceptable call quality in the consumer market could never be reached until significant network upgrades would allow vendor interoperability through standardisation, voice traffic prioritisation for quality of service and more significantly...speed... ie enough bandwidth to transmit the call packets without significant delay (throughout the ENTIRE network).

With these restrictions resolved, Voip could then become a serious alternative to the fixed telephone. To meet this objective, network upgrades were ongoing, enabling them for voip, but the final element to bridge the gap and open the gates for voip (and other 'you beaut' applications just waiting 'til the networks were conditioned to accomodate them) was BROADBAND. Given the scale and magnitude of this worldwide preparation, it's inderstandable that it's taken this long... but we're there.

Business, lifestyle, entertainment, communications, shopping, etc, can now migrate to the internet and reach the mass market. The convenience and empowerment offered now justifies expenditure on broadband and hence consumer demand, also, voip can now be a driver in itself with the associated cost savings and acceptable quality offered.

So now if you picture how Engin is positioned in the market (in line with the growing consumer demand for broadband) and it's strategic alliances with broadband providers.... well... I don't think competition with them would be a comfortable proposition for any new entrant unprepared.

The point raised about iinet (or primus, internode etc) having their own voip product is valid, but consider this, Engin have reported a 40% market share. Even if that recedes to say 30-35% due to emerging new entrants, given the projected growth of broadband this year, that's still a sh*tload of subscribers. If you then consider, Engin is only a few thousand subs from breakeven, the true potential is quite staggering for this little titan imo.

So while consumers were acclimatising all things internet, dialup, websites, search engines, broadband, ecommerce, radio, chat rooms, etc.... while networks were being upgraded and applications prepared for the new age (commencing 2006).. Eng grabbed onto a niche.. and what a niche... a product with the power to replace the telephone as we've known it since it's invention.. No other application, no matter how clever, can boast a profile to that level. They were quietly building brand awareness, educating and introducing voip, establishing distribution channels, sorting out teething problems, basically preparing for that big wave... which is starting to swell now.

Another point imo re competion, Engin, besides having the lead in many aspects also has the added and benefit of being a differentiator. It has a unique business model in Australia. It is VOIP and nothing but VOIP.. They are THE specialists in the industry with a fully regulatory and standards compliant product. No encumberances of other incomes streams to divide attention. Ordinarily, diversification would be wise to hedge ones bets, but in this case, just as the whole world uses the telephone, the whole world will in time use Voip... I think it's safe to say there will be enough for them to do just providing this one service (along with all its potential variances).

They've already commenced on a mass marketing program and have established a nationwide distribution system to cater for it, (smart cookies if you ask me).

iinet, primus and other potential competitors' first target will be their own broadband customer base. Further, voip is not their core business, that's a lot to take on as an extension to their business. Also, imo, by the time any competitor starts showing any measurable effect in the mass market, Engin should be way past break even, and own a significant subscriber base, which by then they're ESTABLISHED.

What I'm witnessing is the introduction of a technology with the ability to replace what was once considered irreplacable, the humble telephone, an essential item for every household and business, globally... by a company
which has done its homework and prepared accordingly... good recipe for success.

The carriers used voip first, then enterprise, followed by smes, now available to the consumer.
Voip will be a household product.. that's a lot of widgets for sale imho.

To me, here is a company of substance, with a revolutionary high profile product, prepared and ready to cater for explosive growth in the mass market... regardless of the swot analyses... I think it's a unique investment... the likes of which, I'll probably
not see again in my lifetime. (unless an economically viable alternative for crude oil is introduced).... I'll be in that one as well, for sure.

So... I decided not to sell... 

cheers"


----------



## Lachlan6 (14 March 2006)

Still a little confused however. why is eng's expenses soo high. is it a little worrying that despite huge revenes no profits have been made? good day today. happy with the pirchase, licking the lips at 36c, but tailed off a bit. unfortunately didnt finish at high, may signal early weakness tommorow, lets wait and see.


----------



## IGO4IT (14 March 2006)

Lachlan6 said:
			
		

> Still a little confused however. why is eng's expenses soo high. is it a little worrying that despite huge revenes no profits have been made? good day today. happy with the pirchase, licking the lips at 36c, but tailed off a bit. unfortunately didnt finish at high, may signal early weakness tommorow, lets wait and see.




I actually think today's run was the end of it until another ann comes out, may be some more details about NZ expansions.

I think it was logical to get to 36c on half year's report as I personally liked it & I think everyone did as well, it also made everyone think that ENG is going in right direction.

I'm scared now of a panic sellout on open tomorrow, since breaking 32c was not hard at all, then in my little knowledge it will mean that sellers are expecting run to continue, if it doesn't, they'll have to get out immediatly & that will come at a cost.

intresting to see how it will go from here


----------



## pharaoh (14 March 2006)

Hi guys

Lachlan, you should read the history. 
Costs have been high Why? Cos they have expanded massively in hardware, infrastructure and bandwidth the last few months, that was expected, a new company, with this growth, needs to set itself up.

Hang in there. 
Did you read the long post?

As for tomorrows trading, I have chatted with loads of people on the forums, and they are waiting for it to get to 30c before they buy in or top up. 

That is just on the forums. 

Everyday there are news articles on vopi, it is going to continue to rise imo, but that's just me. 

Read around and see what others feel. The sentiment is incredibly strong at the moment. 

imo, it will open high tomorrow and keep pushing up.


----------



## Lachlan6 (14 March 2006)

Cheers pharaoh. Yes I was just a little unsure about that. Thanks for making that clarification. I am coming predominately from a technical, chart perspective and EGN is spot on at the moment. However it is good to have some fundamentals clarified. The other thing I wasnt sure about was why in the company reports that a loss was posted yet the stock still has a PE ratio? I'm probably missing something obvious here. But am interested to find out. Yes Pharao would be good to see it open higher tommorow. Lets wait and see.


----------



## pharaoh (14 March 2006)

Cool, I hope tomorrow is a strong one. 
Not too fazed about the short term anyway. 

I would be interested anyway, on what anyone has to say about their pe too.


----------



## sandik17 (15 March 2006)

Going skyward today....up 5.5 (16.42%)....to 39.

Not many shares up for grabs from sellers either....much sought after stock...I missed out...I wanted to top up...oh well.


----------



## ctp6360 (15 March 2006)

I have made $10,000 from this beauty so far, WOW! I just wished I had bought 5 times the amount I did!


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## Mumbank (15 March 2006)

Now don't be too greedy $10k is a nice little profit and they are still on the rise.  Its lovely to see this stock go ahead.  I actually bought back in Dec 04 when they were MOB, even though I paid 29c then I have had the benefit of 9c in dividends and now they are on the rise again, so its been great for me, even though when they droped down to 11c I was very worried and thought I might sell if they got back to 15c, when they did I decided to hold on and see what happened - I am sooo glad I did.


----------



## IGO4IT (15 March 2006)

hey guys, back in the old day (few days ago) someone was hoping to re-enter at 26c.

who was it again so we can rub it in now  :


----------



## pharaoh (15 March 2006)

Wasn't me 

What an exciting day guys
Congrads to all who believed in this little aussie pioneer!

Sit back and watch the march to 70c+


----------



## Porper (15 March 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> hey guys, back in the old day (few days ago) someone was hoping to re-enter at 26c.
> 
> who was it again so we can rub it in now  :




Yep, me and I hold my hands up.Thing is after the announcement I tightened my stop and just got hit, that is just how it goes sometimes.Works in the long run and you can't ever get serious nasty surprises, almost never anyway.

still made a handsome profit on ENG twice now, so certainly no regrets whatsoever.Hope it keeps going for you, but don't let all the profit slip away when it changes direction ....................and it will !!


----------



## IGO4IT (15 March 2006)

Porper said:
			
		

> still made a handsome profit on ENG twice now, so certainly no regrets whatsoever.Hope it keeps going for you, but don't let all the profit slip away when it changes direction ....................and it will !!




Porper, i've gone out of it today. i like to cash in between now & then & re-enter again (I had few lessons before -  we'll not get there as its soooo depressing)

I also made nice sums within the last 2 weeks on it since I first entered on 18c.

if ever it will dive, then I'm in again & also if it keeps rising then i'm in again.

does that make sense?  

this is how much I like this stock  :bier:


----------



## pharaoh (15 March 2006)

IG, i'm shocked, and I thought you were such a believ  er.....


----------



## IGO4IT (15 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> IG, i'm shocked, and I thought you were such a believ  er.....




yes, that's why I'll re-enter again as soon as it slows down a bit, i got hit few times before because of my greed & got wiped out totally & I took a promise to try as much as I can to survive   

Long term profits in ENG will always be more than short term ones, I'm in again as soon as I see a safe entry.  

I guess to understand my fear you have to get burnt few times & then you learn to stop your greed at some point even if its hard.


----------



## pharaoh (21 March 2006)

IG, did you get in???

Heading toward 50c by friday now.
What a day today!!! 46c high, close at 45

Reckon open at 47 tom


----------



## sandik17 (21 March 2006)

What a ride....this is incredible...I keep getting the advice to sell and buy back in...but there's not many 'down days' to get back in....I'm holding.



			
				pharaoh said:
			
		

> IG, did you get in???
> 
> Heading toward 50c by friday now.
> What a day today!!! 46c high, close at 45
> ...


----------



## IGO4IT (21 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> IG, did you get in???
> 
> Heading toward 50c by friday now.
> What a day today!!! 46c high, close at 45
> ...





I re-entered with a small trial parcel at 36.5c yesterday, planned for a major top up when its gets calm but couldn't do the major top up yet. 

I planned for the top up after 10.30 today but volume kept going crazy & my price became history so I couldn't add on.

this one is hard  I have major money on the line waiting for SP or volume to relax but it DOESN'T 

we'll see tomorrow after open if volume relaxes then I can probably get in with some real money  wish me luck.


----------



## sandik17 (21 March 2006)

IGO4IT, I know how you feel...although substantially already 'involved' with eng, I finally sold my tls the other day, and was waiting for the 'retrace' to top-up my eng.  If I'd done it when I wanted to at 35....I'd be able to sell them for a 10c profit in a matter of 2 days.  Hindsight is a wonderful thing...foresight would be even better.


----------



## pharaoh (21 March 2006)

Sandik, hello stranger. How are you?
Cool couple of days huh?

I was in Hunter valley for 3 day wine weekend, and came back to see my ENG investment now all but doubled since I bought - how cool is this?

Anyway, will try to buy some more soon, will wait for poss retrace, but hmmm, doubt it. 

IG, hang in there, am sure you will get a decent entry. I guess we all have to evaluate the poss sp of them, and that will be our entry point. 

What do you guys think?

imo, maybe next week could be at 55c? 
Sure, thats a fair jump, but remember FRE....up to 88c almost overnight.

Thoughts?


----------



## IGO4IT (21 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> IGO4IT, I know how you feel...although substantially already 'involved' with eng, I finally sold my tls the other day, and was waiting for the 'retrace' to top-up my eng.  If I'd done it when I wanted to at 35....I'd be able to sell them for a 10c profit in a matter of 2 days.  Hindsight is a wonderful thing...foresight would be even better.




Sandik, I have no regrets about selling at all, I've done 100% in 3 weeks. 

I realised from experience that few short stops (100% is a way more than my usual short stop  ), make me more comfortable putting bigger amounts into 1 company.

The hard thing about ENG is that no one can really estimate what is the real physical value of the share, practically its all about the goodwill that is increased every day by more demand.

imo, if volume stops, it will retrace but for some reason volume doesn't stop 

I like to call myself a "careful" trader by having many successful trades rather than sleeping on the 1 trade, practically I prefer to be cautious not sorry 

cheers.


----------



## pharaoh (21 March 2006)

Fair call IG.

I think many of us are emotionally attached to what this company is doing now - agghhhh, am not supposed to let that happen. 

Will sit and see what happens, hopefully the dream run continues.


----------



## Mumbank (22 March 2006)

Wow 2million in first 1/2 hour of trade.  High of 49.5 back at 47.5 now, gee there doesn't seem to be any stopping this one.  Let the good time roll!!!


----------



## sandik17 (22 March 2006)

And lets not forget to thank Duckman#72 for starting this thread!
Good one Duckman, there's been various members pm'ing me to tell me that they got into this share via this thread....well done! Hope you're having a good day!


----------



## Fab (22 March 2006)

I just bought at $0.475. Looks to me that it might be the top of the wave after jumping 18% yesterday. Anyway I am there for the mid term on that stock. What attracts me to it is that they pay a small dividend even though it is a below $1 share. Also if I go by the way voip has been expanding in Europe, the like of ENG I am thinking for example FREE in France are booming therefore I  don’t see why this would not happen here.
What is your opinion ?


----------



## mick (22 March 2006)

I only got told by a mate last week that they were a listed company and straight away jumped on to get some shares. At this stage I don't have a huge amount of investment money but am doing well to start with. I use their service on all VOIP installs for friends and family and am looking at getting involved in business's using their service. I got onboard because I believe the technology they are using will boom and they are the Australian leader in my opinion. Hopefully this can keep going and I can find some more money to buy in on the way up!

Fab, as for buying in .. I bought in today at 0.46 for some more .. just hold on to the end of the week and you'll see a profit (in my opinion)


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## IGO4IT (22 March 2006)

hi Guys,

I agree with everyone here about the potential of VOIP & ENG.

I'm just not sure that I'm ready to pay 46c/share NOW.

For those who hold ENG shares now, be very cautious as buyers know that you're scared of a sudden drop in price & they also know it will drop. Long term buyers waiting on late 30s to early 40s & you can check them out on ENG's Depth. all others are day traders.

practically nothing can keep going up forever, imo, a drop is coming sooner or later & you'll be shocked to see that majority of buyers today were day traders who were surfing the wave & on purpose pushing the price higher for their short term benefit.

Proof= how many times you seen in the last week a buy order for the higher price coming from outside DEPTH, long term buyers at least try to get their shares cheaper but those buying in ENG in the last week are all day traders.

I'm the biggest believer in this company but price now is a way too expensive for whatever potential I see in ENG.

by the way, I only hold a small parcel now & yes I'll be buying more when price becomes a bit realistic!


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## Fab (22 March 2006)

IGO4IT,

I agree with you 0.46 is a bit high for ENG specially after juming almost 20% in 2 days I still think we will see this share going probably over $1 by year end and I am also attracted to ENG going ex dividend on the 17/04. This should compensate for some potential short term loses.


----------



## pharaoh (22 March 2006)

Hey guys

I understand your comments on buying at 46c. 
Don't worry. I picked this at 6c, then 13c thinking I missed it and maybe it was overvalued. 

If you are a day trader, maybe think like that. 
If you want to sit on an exciting company like Engin, sit on it for the ride to $1 and beyond. 

I bought small parcels at 23 and 25 and will not even sell if it gets to 70c, as I, and hundreds others on the various boards, think it has massive potential. 

Well done for getting onboard, enjoy. 

dyor and retire early


----------



## IGO4IT (22 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Hey guys
> 
> I understand your comments on buying at 46c.
> Don't worry. I picked this at 6c, then 13c thinking I missed it and maybe it was overvalued.
> ...




Pharoah, I'll buy more of ENG when its 70c in few months time & may be more than $1 early next year, but don't you find the CURRENT growth rate (of 20% in 2 day  ) is just a little bit high?

don't worry, I'm not trying to put down value to buy again , I like to pay good price for a share that I sell for excellent price.

ENG is a winner, I just think that day traders had taken the price a way too far too soon & that by itself could brand a very nice share to be unstable if iSP drops suddenly & then consequences may be suffered by long term holders.

As a long term holder I'd be more intrested in a stock that goes up 1c every week rather than other that goes up 20% in a day & then goes down 15% the next day. my favourite long term hold is usually stable & growing, but this one I'm afraid to say is over growing & it does scare me to what may happen next. (I think that sounds funny - scared of overgrowing share  )


cheers,


----------



## pharaoh (23 March 2006)

Hey IG

No, I agree. I am not 100% comfortable wit the excessive growth I guess. At the end of the day, I don't mind this one now, cos the short term goals which will really value this company (reaching breakeven sub base), is a short time away, so figure people are increasing the value of the sp to bring it in line just as quick. 

Or people just see it will be worth $1 in a much shorter time than most shares. 

But yeah, understand your thinking, I am hoping insto's will be buying in soon, and taking the baton from the day traders, meaning the sp will hold, then move up comfortably.


----------



## sandik17 (23 March 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I am also attracted to ENG going ex dividend on the 17/04. This should compensate for some potential short term loses.





Fab, hi, I did not know there was any talk of a dividend??? Can you tell me where you found out that information please.  There were 'special' dividends given previously....is this what you are meaning?
Anyone else heard of a dividend?


----------



## Fab (23 March 2006)

Read on Commsec:
            cents   Franking    Due date   Payment date
"Interim 3.00          100      14 Apr, 05   02 May, 05


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## Mumbank (23 March 2006)

Fab,

That's 2005  we are in 2006 - sorry no dividends due at the moment.


----------



## jet-r (23 March 2006)

the dividend payment in 2005 was not from their operation profit.


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## Fab (23 March 2006)

oops indeed I did read it wrongly.


----------



## IGO4IT (23 March 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Or people just see it will be worth $1 in a much shorter time than most shares.




Today its down to 39c as expected, a panic sellout was a must.

reaching an agreed value for the share (from investors point of view) is based on many factors & to be honest ENG currently if it is to be valued it would be valued in a comparison to others established & already cash flow positive equivalent companies & traditionally in same industry - for example: FRE (I'm not positive if its cash flow positive by the way  )

Imo, the SP spike has 1 advantage which is that resistance point goes higher with it, unfortunately that's not based on fundemental basis (as in profitability, mngmnt abilities or potential ) its based solely that those who paid 45c refuse to lose half their investment & sell on 25-30c for instance.

in that case, you may find that those who came in for a 2 days ride may stay for longer because they can't afford to sell NOW & hoping for retrace that can at least give them their money back. all sorts of tricks you'll see happening in this case, starting from funny 1,000,000 share buy order that keep dropping down below current buy price to show positive buying attitude & encourage buyer, averaging down by buying at lower price which pushes prices higher a little bit & all other tricks come out in that case

Investors won't pay the high over valued price, investors put their money based on price analysis composed from many factors & they are patient, very very patient. 

so how much is ENG worth now? imo, its up to those who bought recently on high prices & how long can they last before they give up & sell, once they sell investors will jump in.

if they don't sell soon, then price will go down slowly & that will still delay investors coming in because they still hope to get lower discounts, if they sell within a week & it goes quite for few days, this is when the big boys come in, big boys only buy on sideway charts!

I could be wrong, that's totally my own personal opinion & is not an advise to buy or sell.

Cheers,


----------



## Fab (23 March 2006)

Actually what are the fundamentals of this company ?


----------



## IGO4IT (23 March 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Actually what are the fundamentals of this company ?




you can look up their half yearly fin. results report just released few weeks ago. 

to be practical, fund. mean nothing in this case, physical value for ENG as far as I can remember was calculated to be mid to end 20s. (inc potential), since they're growing customers like crazy & will break even financially within 1 -2 months.

lots & lots of potential element was added to SP that no one can really say how much potential can SP add to it, this is totaly a matter of each one of us opinion.

moral of story: anything beyond 30c is just for potential & no one can really say if that will be 1c or $1, if you're happy to buy their potential for 46c then this is exactly what you'll get.



cheers,


----------



## pharaoh (23 March 2006)

True

It really has been a great short term winner of late, but is really a fantastic mid term hold, for huge rewards imo


----------



## sandik17 (25 March 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> you can look up their half yearly fin. results report just released few weeks ago.
> 
> lots & lots of potential element was added to SP that no one can really say how much potential can SP add to it, this is totaly a matter of each one of us opinion.
> 
> ...




Hi Guys

I hate to say it but the volatile movements over the past week have made me realise that at the moment traders and sharks are feeding. I'm out for the moment. Sold during the week at 44c. 

Duckman said to know when to "hang up". Good while it lasted - I'll have to find something else now.

Goodluck to all

Sandik


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## sandik17 (25 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> Hi Guys
> 
> Sold during the week at 44c.
> 
> ...





Obviously had had a few too many wines last night when I posted that positive comment towards the negative Duckman.....

When I say I sold...I should correct myself...I sold 1/3 of my stock.  I still hold a substantial amount and look forward to continuing this amazing ride, and cashing in (some at least) when they hit $1.

I certainly don't need to find another stock to 'watch' like this one...this keeps me busy enough, and roll on next announcement time!

But thanks anyway Duckman, your ethics are questionable.


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## pharaoh (27 March 2006)

A good day today, holding nicely it seems, and closed on 45c


----------



## Porper (27 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> When I say I sold...I should correct myself...I sold 1/3 of my stock.  I still hold a substantial amount and look forward to continuing this amazing ride, and cashing in (some at least) when they hit $1.
> 
> .




Sandik, I hope it keeps going up for you, but don't get carried away with a good result like ENG.Stating you will sell when it reaches a dollar is a danger sign as it needs to double and a bit more to achieve this.Keep your feet firmly on the ground, nothing goes up in a staright line for long.


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## sandik17 (27 March 2006)

point noted porper....that's why I sold to cover my entree costs...it's been an incredible ride.  But I do take your point...and I think it's what Duckman in his negative way has been trying to say also. 
Must say, felt nice reaping some profits.


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## IGO4IT (27 March 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> point noted porper....that's why I sold to cover my entree costs...it's been an incredible ride.  But I do take your point...and I think it's what Duckman in his negative way has been trying to say also.
> Must say, felt nice reaping some profits.





Sandik, 

imo, this stock will go crazy & MAY BE to your expected $1 in July - Aug when news come out that they've breaken even financially.

holding from now could be a good strategy but expect to see a lot of humps for a good 2-3 months.

After all the "after the storm" damage is recovered & it gets quiet again then I'll go on for nice return I hope when YEARLY accounts come out.

cheers,


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## sandik17 (27 March 2006)

Thanks IGO4IT, I'm certainly in it for the long haul.

Now that I've covered my entry (as opposed to my entree...must've been subconscious message that I needed dinnere!) costs, everything's a winner from here on!

I just have my sights set on that software in the competition!  Go Eng!


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## pharaoh (30 March 2006)

A quote by a user on another forum today:

Did anyone else hear the very well regarded Alan Kohler (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Kohler) last weekend on Melbourne radio? (774AM - the ABC Finance show). He was asked to pick the top Australian stocks to invest in for a great return over the next few years....

He chose ENG, BHP, PBL, EMI, FKP and SRX.

Kind of nice to see Engin in the same company as BHP 

End of quote....

Phew...


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## ijudge (1 April 2006)

People

I am new to this forum

I think the traders exiting the stock with some burnt digits are responsible for the more than expected retrace (i am sure there are traders who have profited, and traders who have lost)

In any case

When the company returns to it's true value ?30 ?35c it will continue a slow growth upwards

I, like most of the forum, have a favourable view of the long term prospects for engin.

ij

ps: it is interesting to note that by some of the threads, people think what they write here influences others to buy or sell stocks.... this is complete nonsense! would you be influenced to buy or sell based on what others write here?


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## pharaoh (1 April 2006)

Hi Ij

Good on you for following engin
I believe they will be a big player in the voip revolution we are seeing the start of just now.

On your point about the comments influencing people, I disagree. 

I am influenced to a point, not to the point of buying perhaps, but I guess I draw up a shortlist from what I read, and then do my own research and then possibly buy. 

People talking about stocks catches my attention at least, then I look further into it. 

But anyway, I think it is a good thing, people shares thoughts, tips, etc and we can take or leave as we like. 

Works well for me.


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## Fab (1 April 2006)

Still remain to be seen that Engin will become a big player in voip but I am likely I have put some money on it. The problem is voip won't jump until Telstra decide to at this stage or other SP offer new network


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## pharaoh (1 April 2006)

I think primus is launching their voip service if they haven't already. 

Two things here - 
1. This will raise awareness of voip as a good option for consumers.

2. Primus is in massive financial trouble, and may have to look at bankruptsy I heard. Don't quote me, but read it on friday

Think Engin's subscriber numbers for march will illustrate how much of a player they will be. 

I heard on the grape vine today that sub numbers for this quarter, over the previous quarter, are up 60%

At this rate, they will hit 100,000 customers next year, dramatically changing their significance in the industry, and I imagine, their share price / value. 

The next ann will, I think, prove to the market they are going ahead at full throttle. 

Will post details on this as soon as I hear more, or when they ann it.


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## Duckman#72 (1 April 2006)

Hi All

Another article for media watch. 

There was a very ordinary report concerning VoIP in Tuesday's _The Australian_.

Quote...."More than 100 companies offer VoIP services in Australia dollars and the vast majority are local companies. ......the operators with the biggest subscriber bases were not necessarily the most profitable. There's a big difference between those who have subscribers and the percentage of those who are paying for things."

The article went on to say that the competition will be so tight that shortly we may see voice travel even become free. In that case money would be made through advertising rights - eg Google's Gmail. 

They also interviewed Engin chief executive Ilka Tales who had this to say......"The pricing models will change as competition picks up. But will it become free? Only time will tell. It's a fairly competitive field, it's not for the faint hearted". 

The article targets the key question that investors should be asking themselves. "VoIP may well be the next big thing in telecommunications - but how companies going to manouver themselves to make money out of it?" At present Engin's positive has been it's positioning and number of subscribers. But now the theory that subscribers alone will equal profits is being questioned.    

Duckman


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## pharaoh (2 April 2006)

Not many could survive on that model. 
Wholesale IP is not cheap, and revenues from advertising would be pretty hard to sustain, or keep paying the bills.

I read that article, I think Tales was just not denying it could happen. 

Think this will be some time down the track.

Remember Goconnect - the isp that tried the same, but with internet. 
They went bust, and no one else found a way to make it work, or pay the bills.


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## YChromozome (2 April 2006)

I think the article is spot on. 

I can remember when iinet Launched their VoIP service. They gave it away free to every existing subscriber. Not long after, they made a statement of subscriber number and growth which after two to three months greatly exceeded that of Engin. However more than half of iinet's customers had never even logged into the service, and just many didn't know what it was, nor had ever spent a cent on it. It all depends how you want to play the market.

Generally, the VoIP providers that don't have a monthly fee offer 10c local calls, but timed national or intercapital calls. The ones that offer 10c untimed national calls have a monthly fee. Last week I was exposed to KoalaVoIP. They had no monthy fee - it was prepaid and offered 10c national calls anywhere in Australia. At the time I scratched my head and wondered in such a high volume, low margin business how they could even pay of their infrastructure, pay the light bill or pay staff? Needless to say, the call cost bounced to 15c and is now 20c, less than a week later.

I believe VSPs are going through the same phase than some ISPs were a year or two ago. They provide services under cost in the aim to capture large portions of the market and then hope to somehow make some money from it. This may also prevent larger players moving it. Anyone with a sustainable bussiness is probably not interested in a loss leader. Simon Hackett, the CEO of the larger Natonal ISP Internode was only saying yesterday that they are still trying to negotate a fair SS7 termination into the PSTN for its Nodephone VoIP service.

Engin is uniquely placed. In the short term at least, they have a sustainable business. There are plenty of VSPs that are not, and I believe there will be some consolidation in the industry over the next coming years. We have already seen the likes of People Telecom close down their VoIP infrastructure and move their customers to Engin under a wholesale deal. 

Engin also have one of the largest ARPU (Average Revenue per User) in the industry if not the largest, and as the article quite rightly suggests, that is what makes for a profitable business, not the number of subs. As Engin charge a minimum of $9.95 per month, it means each and every one of Engin's customers are using the service and are using the service frequently enough to justify the $9.95 monthly fee. I think now when you look at Engin's position within the market, being somewhere in the top three providers, but will all their subs being paying customers you can understand why Engin will break even this year and is in such a good position.

Engin last week launched two business plans and hence is now at a stage of targeting the higher spend SMB sector. It is these bussinesses that are looking for not generally the cheapest provider, but one that will still be in bussiness next week. Running a business you don't want your phone number to go dead, because your provider, Budget VSP Pty Ltd went broke.


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## pharaoh (2 April 2006)

YChromozome, good post. 

I keep seeing people posting about how many new competitors there are in the market, and predicting doom and gloom. 

Many are providing 10c calls and either timed or higher std or intercapital, as you stated. 

one issue I saw in the past being thrown around also was customer loyalty or sticking around. I think 2 points should be noted. 

      1. We are seeing that people get a regular australian phone number. Kids and techo's won't mind switching but 95% of the population won't want to keep telling family and friends about their "new" phone number...

      2. Cost savings - Engin's pricing model is exellent. It is extremely low and with current volumes now and increasing month on month, they will move towrds profit, in a very short time. Let's face it, who is going to switch providers, and change phone numbers all over again, for the sake of saving 2c (i.e. if someone undercuts on national calls etc, local can't go down more) or international - and this is only less than 5% of call volumes for australian users according to figures from Telstra.

Sustainability, that's what will make Engin not only survive when most won't, but thrive. 

Many of these new ones are 2 man bands, and reselling either engin or making 0.5 of a cent margin on each call, so won't have the cash to upgrade infrastructure or put on support staff. 

So, good times will be ahead for engin and with their marketing campaign continuing, should see her break even soon and go on from there. 

imo


----------



## sandik17 (2 April 2006)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> Engin is uniquely placed. In the short term at least, they have a sustainable business. There are plenty of VSPs that are not, and I believe there will be some consolidation in the industry over the next coming years. We have already seen the likes of People Telecom close down their VoIP infrastructure and move their customers to Engin under a wholesale deal.
> 
> Engin also have one of the largest ARPU (Average Revenue per User) in the industry if not the largest, and as the article quite rightly suggests, that is what makes for a profitable business, not the number of subs. As Engin charge a minimum of $9.95 per month, it means each and every one of Engin's customers are using the service and are using the service frequently enough to justify the $9.95 monthly fee. I think now when you look at Engin's position within the market, being somewhere in the top three providers, but will all their subs being paying customers you can understand why Engin will break even this year and is in such a good position.
> 
> Engin last week launched two business plans and hence is now at a stage of targeting the higher spend SMB sector. It is these bussinesses that are looking for not generally the cheapest provider, but one that will still be in bussiness next week. Running a business you don't want your phone number to go dead, because your provider, Budget VSP Pty Ltd went broke.





YChromozome, you are exactly right.  This stock is a speccie (although hardly a penny dreadful! ) But it does have huge potential...be it short term (ie 12 months).  

As VoiP (if not ENG specifically, although ENG is in the forefront due their advertising campaign) becomes more commonly understood/used and less feared, there are undoubtedly going to be competitors trying to undercut each other for their share of the market.

As you said...you have had personal experience with Koala...well likewise, I have had experience with Astratel...one voip company that are claiming to be 'up there' with Eng.  This company does not charge a monthly fee like ENG.  Their users experience many silent calls, and down time. It took me many,many hours to set up, and there was/is virtually no technical support.  In other words...you get what you pay for!  The other day they even had a problem.... AstraTel customer call records leaked!

As mentioned in previous posts ENG have come up with a product that is user friendly for the non-tech people who don't have the time to fiddle with settings.  They have done a lot of advertising, and have their products accessible from many everyday stores and now they are making the package specifically for businesses.  
Their management is sound and they are building a solid company in an unchartered field.
Sure, there is some risk involved....no-one really knows where VoiP is heading...although we do know that in the UK they are switching to voip by 2010.   We also know of the huge increase of Broadband users in Australia, and how voip can make broadband affordable.
Engin are voip providers for another 12 companies offering voip...so even if you are with another provider, chances are that you are using ENG anyway (and ENG are obviously getting a cut of this).

IMO the foundations have been laid with this company...and laid on a rock.  Between their increased home subscriptions, and businesses as well the future is looking good.  Just waiting to see the break even figures which will be when this company really comes into it's own...and rightly so.  At the moment, if you haven't used voip, and don't fully understand it's potential, I can see how you'd see it was even riskier than it is. 
Cut and paste this and have a look....this company is a quality act.  

Duckman, interesting article,(we haven't heard from you for a while while the sp has been soaring!) but do you think Ilka and co haven't thought about that before with people offering free voip.  There are free voip providers out there now even!  I think they have it covered...and who knows by then they'll probably be taken over and we'll all be sitting pretty by our pool with the proceeds of sale!    Have a good weekend all...

http://play.viostream.com/?play=F18...lay=yes&video=1_2919_6231_0384K_Stream001.mov


----------



## pharaoh (2 April 2006)

Sandik, nice to see you around again, where have you been??


----------



## YChromozome (2 April 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> As mentioned in previous posts ENG have come up with a product that is user friendly for the non-tech people who don't have the time to fiddle with settings.  They have done a lot of advertising, and have their products accessible from many everyday stores and now they are making the package specifically for businesses.




Yes, that is the other thing that sets ENG apart from the pack. As you say most of the techy people are into VoIP. Now it is becoming mainstream and being marketed towards the Mums & Dads. This is where the big growth will be.

There are only two players I know of that offer a box you can buy retail off the shelf, take home and simply plug'n'play. One is MyNetFone, the other of course is Engin.

Alan Kohler had written an article in the Sydney Morning Herald one recent weekend, claiming if If Coles doesn't follow Tesco into IP telephony, Woolworths will. He goes on to report "The world's biggest grocer, Tesco, which Coles makes a habit of copying (as do most other supermarket chains around the world), has just teamed up with a small listed Australian company, Freshtel, to sell internet protocol (IP) telephony through its 1780 UK stores."

What it didn't mention was Woolworths and Coles involvement with Engin already. Coles sell Engin voice boxes through its Officeworks and Harris Technology stores. Woolworths sell Engin through its Big W, Dick Smith and Tandy's stores. If both retailers already stock the line, It shouldn't be too long before they start turning up in Woolworths and Coles Supermarkets. On top of this Engin also has boxes on the shelf in Harvey Norman, Ingram Micro and Leading Edge Group, on the television on TVSN and home shopping channels etc.

There was mention of a recent survey  of an entire 87 respondents from Whirlpool, a techy hangout, that stated the popular providers were Astratel (31 percent), Oztell (27.6 percent) and engin (23 percent).

I wonder how many Mums & Dads know who Astratel or Oztell is? Can you buy them in a retail store? Are they plug and play or do you need a IT degree to configure these providers and your own hardware?

____
Phone bills that don't suck


----------



## sandik17 (2 April 2006)

Actually have another couple of jobs that have kept me occupied the last few weeks.  I've been around watching though...and keeping a finger on the pulse.  I'm waiting for these to come down again, so I can top up, after I cashed in a few at 45c....Eventually the only way is up for these shares, contrary to what some negative people trying to knock them down think.  See what happens over Easter I guess?


----------



## Duckman#72 (2 April 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> I read that article, I think Tales was just not denying it could happen.



Hi All

YChrome - I loved the post. Well researched and presented. Nice to hear some new input. You made some interesting points. Your argument about Coles and Woolworths is a good one. IMO it is the primary thing ENG has got going for it. Forget your subscriber growth - it isn't making money and there is no proof that bulk numbers will, in the future, be the frameowrk for the company to pay the bills anyway. If ENG didn't get a lions share of the VoIP market after burning through the Vodaphone payout then they don't deserve to be in business. Lets not get carried away.

I completely agree it has been very astute in getting it's foot in the door with Harvey Norman and Officeworks etc. But Coles and Woolworth's didn't get to be where they are through helping other companies. They won't continue to run with ENG unless it is going to be in the very best interest of Coles and Woolworths. They will drop ENG like a foundation rock if they can make more money with another provider.    

Sorry Pharaoh - I didn't realise that you had read the article "Profits Prove Elusive for Net Phones". You usually keep us informed of media articles involving ENG. You must have accidentally overlooked that one.

Sandik - you have convinced me. When these shares come down further (and IMO they will) I will pick some up. No, I still don't like the company. But you guys have some much belief in this little company - it is a traders dream share!!!! The decision making process exhibited by you guys is ......"unique". Provided you don't mind investing in a company with negative NTA's there is bound to be more money to be made. 

For the record I have only ever tried to provide a "balanced handbrake" to all the glowing tribute posts on this thread. I don't believe that through the tongue-in-cheek posts, I have ever implied that you won't make money buying ENG. I have just doubted the "money-in-the-bank", "bluechip" status that some of the posters have given it. 

Hey - and don't forget who started the thread!!!!  

Regards

Duckman


----------



## YChromozome (2 April 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> after burning through the Vodaphone payout




I hope not. I got some tidy dividends and capital returns from MOB as a result of that payout. Not all of it went into the engin venture.



			
				Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> But Coles and Woolworth's didn't get to be where they are through helping other companies. They won't continue to run with ENG unless it is going to be in the very best interest of Coles and Woolworths. They will drop ENG like a foundation rock if they can make more money with another provider.




That's one of the problems I saw with the Freshtel/Tesco deal. Freshtel is wholesaling a whitebox solution and expecting Tesco to rebrand it. Very much like the supermarket's EzyBanking products and in this situation as you say, if Westpac is not providing an big enough margin, but ANZ is, then before you know it there will be Woolworths/ANZ branded ATMs in most Woolworth Supermarkets, Dick Smith, Tandy and BWS stores.

I don't think VoIP in Australia is ready for a supermarket to rebrand such a service. However putting a already branded and supported Engin Voice box on the shelf and taking any retail margins is no different to a tub of margarine, except that the Engin Voice box doesn't need refrigeration!

There are multiple brands of margarine on the shelves, just like Dick Smiths also have the MyNetFone product sitting along side the Engin one.


----------



## pharaoh (3 April 2006)

Thanks for the info guys, good posts.
Duckman, no I have been happy with your posts in the past, you have been generally balanced, aand presented fact. 
Yes, I did read that article, it has just been hard to keep up with postings of late with work getting in the way 

I don't think anyone minds a balanced discussion, and thanks for starting the thread 

Yes, let's wait and see what happens now. I want to see an ann soon, and think we will. 

What do you guys think will be it's bottom point now? i.e. 30c

Hoping all the d/t's are out now, and it seems the buyers are lining up against the sellers finally now to support, and maybe push it up a bit again.

fingers crossed.


----------



## sandik17 (4 April 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Hi All
> 
> Another article for media watch.
> 
> ...





Here's an example of a VoIP provider that ENG are up against.  This provider is the one listed in the survey of 83 whirlpoolians (from the i.t. whirlpool site) as being the 'market leader' in Australia for VoIP.  Not only do they take an i.t person to set up, offer very little support, but they are now compromising its customers' privacy!

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,18665780^15318^^nbv^,00.html

Yes Duckman, there MAY BE more than 100 companies offering VoIP...but you get what you pay for.  
It also may not be the biggest subscriber bases being the most profitable, but indeed a quality product instead!  I believe this is what ENG has.

Pretty quiet on the sales today by the way.  Only $168 000 traded thus far.

This one may be of interest also...it's looking good !

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,18693348^15397^^nbv^,00.html


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## sandik17 (5 April 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Hi All
> 
> Sandik - you have convinced me. When these shares come down further (and IMO they will) I will pick some up.




Duckman, I have some news.... I don't know how much further these are going to come down...so you'd better put your order in sooner rather than later.
I just rang them to find out for my brother about their business plans (which are just fantastic by the way!) and after holding for a while...they must've been signing up others before me, they told me that businesses and home connections can keep their current telephone number which makes this whole deal look even more attractive.  Basically people ring in on the old phone line, and you ring out on the new VoIP line.  So Pharoah, there isn't even that issue of having to get new numbers.

The ENG guy also told me it was a particularly good month in March with another 5000 signed up!  Just watch this go in the next few months....up up and away!
Actually, now you mention it...I think I might wish it down a bit more too, so I can buy in some more, don't want my brother holding more than me!


----------



## Porper (5 April 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> hey guys, back in the old day (few days ago) someone was hoping to re-enter at 26c.
> 
> who was it again so we can rub it in now  :





Well, my re-entry point at 0.26 isn't looking so far fetched now 

Probably won't go that low but will probably get below 0.30 where I will be in again.If this is the bottom of wave A, it will move up on the next wave then finish on the low of wave C.Hopefully from here it will make a long and steady rise with wave 1 beginning again.

Here is a chart for those interested.

Just as a note, DI- has crossed over DI+ today, could trigger a few chartists to sell, we'll see.


----------



## Duckman#72 (5 April 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> Actually, now you mention it...I think I might wish it down a bit more too, so I can buy in some more




Be careful what you wish for Sandik!!! Here it comes.

I'm with Porper - looking at the chart, the 20's are beckoning, particularly if there is an overall market correction to help things along. 

Thankyou for clearing up Pharaoh's post, althought I think you just took away one of his advantages ENG has over competitors.  

Duckman


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## ijudge (5 April 2006)

Nonsense!


look at the buying support that kicked in when the price dropped to 32.5c

today look at the support at 33.5c

if you want some engin shares better line up now and pay up now
otherwise you will be lining up for shares at 45c post next announcement

ij


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## pharaoh (5 April 2006)

I have to agree guys

I thought it may drop to 28c or so, but now not so sure. 
Buyers are lining up to keep it in the low-mid 30's me thinks. 

imo

hoping so anyways


----------



## sandik17 (6 April 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Be careful what you wish for Sandik!!! Here it comes.
> 
> I'm with Porper - looking at the chart, the 20's are beckoning, particularly if there is an overall market correction to help things along.
> 
> ...




You just don't get it Duckman do you?  I haven't 'taken anything away' from Pharoah....
A) with the new voice box from ENG, you CAN keep your current number...
or if you choose...
B) you can change your number....

Now how could this information possibly be a disadvantage to a company. 
I understand what Pharoah is saying...

"1. We are seeing that people get a regular australian phone number. Kids and techo's won't mind switching but 95% of the population won't want to keep telling family and friends about their "new" phone number..."

He was implying that ENG can now give a regular phone number...ie he was AGREEEING with you that 95% of the population wouldn't want to change their number but that ENG now offer this service of keeping your old number.
You just misread the information...or perhaps just misunderstood.


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## pharaoh (7 April 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - buy price*

Guys

I want to get some more today, what do you think it will open at and if you were buying some, what would you hope to get them at?


----------



## ijudge (7 April 2006)

the way things have been trading

i certainly do not think the stock will be coming down to the 20s

if you want stock you would have to be prepared to pay 34.5 - 37.5c

i can not see them droping much out of this range

and should the 1Q sub numbers as good as is rumoured here

the stock will be in the mid 40c post announcement


ij


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## Fab (8 April 2006)

When is the annoucement due ?


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## pharaoh (8 April 2006)

Fab, I feel imo 1-2 weeks 

But I hope maybe 3. 
Reason, traders are now supporting ENG at decent levels. 
Would be nice for the hype to go away for a bit, so when an ann comes, it will have more effect. 

I want the sp to rise on results, not hype. 
Feel the next ann on sub levels will be extremely positive.


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## sandik17 (10 April 2006)

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,18768502^15322^^nbv^,00.html

Another article about the future of VoIP....and ENG are the Australian market leaders....this is all good!


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## sandik17 (11 April 2006)

watch this space...eng up 5cents again today...news in store!


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## pharaoh (11 April 2006)

I know - bugger, I bought some AEX with my spare cashola instead of topping up - doh!!!!

Wonder what happened - no volume then got home and sitting at 41c.........


----------



## IGO4IT (11 April 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> watch this space...eng up 5cents again today...news in store!




FRE is taking the slide down, I think that could be a factor in the current increase in ENG.


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## pharaoh (12 April 2006)

Wow, FRE has taken a drop hasn't it. 
I wonder if it's still good value. Depends on how the UK s/market sales go I guess

Think ENG is prob partly responsible, at least they're making a name for themselves, only investors know of FRE


----------



## IGO4IT (12 April 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Wow, FRE has taken a drop hasn't it.
> I wonder if it's still good value. Depends on how the UK s/market sales go I guess
> 
> Think ENG is prob partly responsible, at least they're making a name for themselves, only investors know of FRE





Pharaoh,

FRE is going thru more than a hicup, imo, this is more of a mild heart attack 

Telco fans will always look for the competitor to support since industry will wait for no one to grow, it will grow with or without FRE, so investors join the company that is still ALIVE as its more likely to get customers from other one dying & since FRE is already down around 25% in value since few weeks ago, I don't think a quick recovery is one of the possibilities as well.

imo, don't bother with FRE until you see it going up again ON VOLUME & for few days, our chance now becomes ENG that will benefit automatically from FRE's decline.

funny world , cheers,


----------



## mick (12 April 2006)

Does anyone know if there was any information which caused this morning to increase the price and trade volume rapidly compared with the way the share price was settling?


----------



## sandik17 (12 April 2006)

mick said:
			
		

> Does anyone know if there was any information which caused this morning to increase the price and trade volume rapidly compared with the way the share price was settling?





Mick, it's a mystery to us all...except that this stock has a history of rising on the hype of upcoming announcements.  March was apparently a great month for subscriber numbers, and who knows....maybe break even is impending sooner rather than later?  It's all speculation at this stage...but I bet someone in the know bought in yesterday.  I'm looking forward to the announcement coming...perhaps after easter now.  I love these ones! :


----------



## ijudge (12 April 2006)

to answer your question mick


there is no formal news

i have heard rumours that march subscribers were very good

but these are rumours

this certainly is a stock that responds to rumours...



ij


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## mick (13 April 2006)

hmm .. and then today the share doesn't really move with low volume starting. Do you think 3 million shares traded could have been some big players playing with the market or does anyone have other ideas on the volatility yesterday?


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## Mumbank (13 April 2006)

I don't have any idea about yesterday  but today is one of those "non" days before a series of public holidays when day traders and profit seekers get out before the break.  I don't really pay much attention to days like today in the scheme of things.  Happy Easter!!


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## pharaoh (13 April 2006)

Very cool, check this out

An Engin voicebox / router for $1


2 for 1
This is a really good move. With margin they will prob breakeven on the hardware, *but potentially double their subscriber for each new sale that takes it up!!*

Little Johnny will buy one for himself, and one for mum and dad

Good move Engin imo

See: 
http://engin.com.au/documentation/Buy1for$1.pdf


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## ijudge (18 April 2006)

Not much happening today

fix bidders will not up their offers at 42c, 41.5c
new buyers jumping over to take at 42.5c
i get the feeling a single player keeps feeding the market at 42.5c
everytime the 42.5c shares are taken by gradual buying interest, someone
puts back another 25,000 to sell, which is gradually satisfying the incoming buyers

soon the seller will dry and then there will be upwards price movement

once the single guy stops feeding, there will be an up movement
when the subs numbers are announced there will be a push one way or the other greater than a single guy can control (i hope the move will be up)

interesting to watch

ij


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## sandik17 (18 April 2006)

ijudge said:
			
		

> Not much happening today
> 
> 
> interesting to watch
> ...




Do you think?  I think it's much more interesting when there is a lot of movement (although only when it's up I must admit!)

But I do agree with you. I'm not sure if it's one seller...but certainly when the shares are all gone, more suddenly appear at the same price. 
I am very eagerly awaiting the upcoming announcement about subscriber numbers.


----------



## ijudge (18 April 2006)

wrt subscriber numbers....


we are all very interested

the rumours are that they are good



ij


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## pharaoh (18 April 2006)

Guys

I called sales today, to ask some questions re the voice box for $1
Spoke to the sales guy, was a bit of a wait - he said it was absolutely crazy.

So, good for us.

Not sure re ann, maybe someone knows something, or mayb it is just holding up nicely as people know they are not far from break even sub numbers.

Oh, I spoke to the accounts dept today too, updating my details, and asked her what it was like working there.

She said it was fantastic and the best place she had ever worked! She said mgmt treated the staff really well, and everyone loved it - and that they were taking more and more people on.

Oh, the sales guy said something similar....

v happy to hold and wait for the ride north, but v happy with how well it climbed back beyond 40c and held...


----------



## mick (19 April 2006)

I have just setup a Linux PBX and used the engin service and its working great. I have spoken with the vendor of the Linux PBX device and they have a default setup for engin and are recommending them to their customers. He did highlight some issues with the technical abilities but overall they are the best on the market according to him. I am now looking at what business prospects I have implementing their PBX solutions with the engin service. Engin are not targeting business at this stage because the margin is not as high but once they get some of the business volume it will justify a high quality service and move the people who are not happy with the call quality yet. Thanks my opinion from the technology point of view anyway. I am no expert trader but moreso intersted in the stock because I understand its situation in the market and the massive potential that VOIP has.


----------



## pharaoh (19 April 2006)

Hi Mick

Good on you, you're onto a good thing here. 
Can't wait to see what's ahead - I'm holding til next january at least


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## pharaoh (20 April 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - holding well*

Take heart from the fact it's holding at 42-43 atm
I'm stoked as it has done so after the d/t retrace to 37c, and this is without good news. 

This is a great sign, imho
happy days


----------



## mick (20 April 2006)

one thing to watch is the involvement of the big telcos in the market .. ie Telstra or Optus. They won't come into the market quickly as they make a huge amount of money out of their traditional PSTN lines but eventually once they are losing enough market share they won't have a choice. If one of them were to have a good go at running VOIP they could squash engin very quickly provided the right strategy. Just something I am watching closely with my shares.

If you have a look through the web at America that is the way we are going and now they are looking at VOIP on mobiles which could change the mobile market as well, definitely intersting technology but you probably need to be reading abroad to keep up on the technology these stocks are relational to.

IMHO I believe they will be a very good investment into early next year at least, where from there is the question


----------



## pharaoh (20 April 2006)

Hi Mick

I have heard that post on loads of eng posts now. 
Don't worry, TLS will be a while away still, and they won't match the eng rates i'm sure

It will also just raise the profile of voip, making more people think of their options. And when they do, they will look for what's on offer. 
And the most publicly known voip company, outside of TLS will be engin


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## ijudge (20 April 2006)

Dear Boys

TLS is full of inefficiencies
they would simply be not able to match ENG on call rates
but they have strong core income
and could carry a loss making VOIP division to crush ENGIN and others
however to do this they will "cut off their nose to spite their face" by slashing their traditional revenues from PTSN
I think simply that if TLS accepted what ENG does for local and long distance
then TLS would be making major losses

so it is a dilemma for TLS


anyway


I am still very positive for ENG

Waiting for announcement


ij


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## YChromozome (20 April 2006)

ijudge, I agree. Telstra's pricing is such that they normally can't compete. However they rely on the Mums & Dads and the Telstra name to sell their products. They will not bring in domestic VoIP for a few years at least, as doing so will canablise their traditional high margin PSTN product.

But don't worry - They are already acting :

Telstra launches fixed line monthly pack - The Age - April 8, 2006 - 5:39AM

"Thousands of Telstra customers will be able to make as many local and long-distance calls as they want for a monthly fee in a bid by the company to fight off competition from internet phone services."

The laughable thing is the "all you can eat" plan comes at a whopping $89.90 monthly fee. What is the ARPU for Engin? Yes, $30.

If the average customer on Engin spends $30 a month, then this all you can eat plan at $89.90 a month may only be of interest to a very, very small percentage of customers.

Rather, it looks like this plan is more focused at keeping customers looking at hanging up their PSTN line for capped Mobile phone plans, as quite frankly you need to make a huge number of cheap VoIP calls to warrant going back to Telstra.


----------



## pharaoh (21 April 2006)

Exactly right. 
That's why no one has been impressed with this, and why Engin is still going nuts signing up new customers in droves each day

Bring on their ann


----------



## pharaoh (24 April 2006)

Consolidation day today boys and girls
Likely to be like this till we get the next ann


----------



## pharaoh (25 April 2006)

*Re: ENG - Sandik, clear your messages*

Tried to pm u, but saying ur message folder is full


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## Fab (25 April 2006)

Pharaoh,

I agree with what you say nevertheless I tried ENG on a 512/128 in Melbourne with AANET and the call quality was not good enough (I am after call quality as good or very close to PSTN) for me to decide to go with them.
TLS has still got an edge with regard to call quality as long as they can keep the broadband speed to a low level. The problem I believe for TLS is that by forcing customers to a "Slow" speed they are slowing down the all country in taking up everything that would go with a faster broadband like you call notice in countries more advanced in that respect such as France or the US


----------



## YChromozome (25 April 2006)

> I tried ENG on a 512/128 in Melbourne with AANET and the call quality was not good enough (I am after call quality as good or very close to PSTN) for me to decide to go with them.




Without turning this into a technical discussion, the quality of the call is very much dependant upon your hardware, codec and the quality of your ISP (the provider that has to deliver your data to engin in close to real time) and if you have QoS (Quality of service) set up.

I use engin with Internode using the G711A codec (It samples at 8bits, 8KHz exactly the same than the Telstra exchange) and get just as good quality. Some people report better quality as you don't have kilometers of wet corroded wire (typical of Telstra’s poor state of the network) creating static and crosstalk on your line. My brother is one such case.

Just because one person has quality issues with a Internet Voice Service Provider, doesn’t mean it’s reflective of everyone on the same VSP.



> TLS has still got an edge with regard to call quality as long as they can keep the broadband speed to a low level.




The G729 codec uses 31.2Kbps both upstream and downstream. The higher quality G711 codec uses 87.2Kbps. The slowest broadband plan this country is 256/64Kbps, hence is quite suitable for VoIP using the G729 codec. Telstra keeping this country at low broadband speeds is not really a problem. At the end of the day the problem comes down to the quality of the customer's ISP. Just because you are pay for 256/64Kbps doesn't mean you get it with the budget, low quaility ISPs. This has been on of the frustrations Illka Tales (CEO, engin) raised at a breakfast earlier this year.


----------



## pharaoh (25 April 2006)

I have to agree with Y

I get great quality with the Lynksys wireless router. 
Y, I have no idea what codec this is u are talking about. 

How can I check?

I have cable, so great download but 128k upload. 
I thought maybe up my upload speed to improve it even more, but if what u r saying is true, maybe I should look at that too.


----------



## YChromozome (26 April 2006)

I've sent pharaoh a private message regarding the technical details in order to keep this thread on topic (share price and company.)


----------



## pharaoh (26 April 2006)

Cheers


----------



## Fab (26 April 2006)

Without turning this into a technical discussion, the quality of the call is very much dependant upon your hardware, codec and the quality of your ISP (the provider that has to deliver your data to engin in close to real time) and if you have QoS (Quality of service) set up.

Ychromozome,

See below my reply to your feedback.
"I use engin with Internode using the G711A codec (It samples at 8bits, 8KHz exactly the same than the Telstra exchange) and get just as good quality. Some people report better quality as you don't have kilometers of wet corroded wire (typical of Telstra’s poor state of the network) creating static and crosstalk on your line. My brother is one such case.

Just because one person has quality issues with a Internet Voice Service Provider, doesn’t mean it’s reflective of everyone on the same VSP"

I my case I am using a Netcomm 1300 Plus4 and tried all the codec and QOS setup that you mentioned above. This was tried with ENG and Faktortel with no improvement in call quality.
At this stage I was thinking maybe the  adsl speed could be the reason or maybe  I should give it a go with a better modem .


----------



## Fab (26 April 2006)

Without turning this into a technical discussion, the quality of the call is very much dependant upon your hardware, codec and the quality of your ISP (the provider that has to deliver your data to engin in close to real time) and if you have QoS (Quality of service) set up.

Ychromozome,

See below my reply to your feedback.
"I use engin with Internode using the G711A codec (It samples at 8bits, 8KHz exactly the same than the Telstra exchange) and get just as good quality. Some people report better quality as you don't have kilometers of wet corroded wire (typical of Telstra’s poor state of the network) creating static and crosstalk on your line. My brother is one such case.

Just because one person has quality issues with a Internet Voice Service Provider, doesn’t mean it’s reflective of everyone on the same VSP"

In my case I am using a Netcomm 1300 Plus4 and tried all the codec and QOS setup that you mentioned above. This was tried with ENG and Faktortel with no improvement in call quality.
At this stage I was thinking maybe the  adsl speed could be the reason or maybe  I should give it a go with a better modem .


----------



## pch (26 April 2006)

Its not your modem - it may be the last mile between you and the exchange, but most likely its oversubscription of the bandwidth of the ISP.

Have a look at a detailed posting to this thread I did maybe a month ago where I disucssed ISP's, upfeed and the myths of QOS.


----------



## pharaoh (27 April 2006)

*Re: ENG - some news*

There is a board meeting next friday, and the board may decide to update the market on latest subscriber numbers.
50/50 maybe if they will or not I think

On next ann sp will run north again to the next stage imo


----------



## Ann (29 April 2006)

..........and a chart..


----------



## ijudge (1 May 2006)

Forum

I have heard that the figures for end march and april


end march 29000 paying subscribers
end april 34400 paying subscribers


this is a reliable source (or at least has been in the past few months)
but it could represent bullsh*t


ij


----------



## crazyadventures (1 May 2006)

IF these figures are accurate, this would indicate 5000 new subscribers in March (ENG's investor presentation had paying subscriber numbers at 24,000 at end Feb) and 5400 for April.

Notably, if these figures are accurate, they indicate sign up rate of new subscribers is increasing (marginally).

More importantly, 30,000 paying subscribers was seen as the required number to reach breakeven.  

Furthermore, one stated objective was to reach 40,000 subscriber lines before July 06.  If current new subscriber rates are maintained, this should take place, demonstrating Engin managements commitment and ability to set and achieve realistic goals.

What would be interesting to see is something from Engin management that presents subscriber numbers (paying vs. non-paying), network minutes and call types (fixed price vs. variable) to see where the best revenue streams are.  (something similar to figures presented in the CEO's presentation at last AGM - see http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...ng&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=6)

Available also from the ASX site, the release entitled "engin Results 2005 and Business Outlook" states that Engin receive around $45 per paying subscriber per month.

Without access to the current financials and any increase/decreases in operating costs, marketing expenditure etc.....well....if the subscriber figures are accurate then Engin should now be generating circa $100,000-200,000 per month profit.

I'd like to verify the figures and hope that Engin management are close to making a formal market announcement to confirm that the breakeven milestone has not only been reached, but surpassed.


----------



## pharaoh (1 May 2006)

ijudge and crazyadventures

That is the best thing I have heard all day!
Brilliant. 

This just reaffirms how well they are doing, and that our investment is going to rocket soon. 

I truly believe once they announce this, and or the breakeven details that they will take the next step in their sp development which will be moving towards 50-70c and onto $1

By doing the numbers it is clear that the sign up rate is increasing extremely well, and that if the same rate continues that they will be sitting on 100,000 customers around Feb next year (not that far off) 

And yes, the competition is picking up, but remember, a lot of their new business is word of mouth and referrals. With 33,000 customers now, that is a lot of potential for referral sign ups. 

Do you know what the first thing I did was when I signed up and started calling friends and family - I said, hey how cool is this - I am using voip with a company called Engin, it's like 10c a call anywhere - give it a go.

At least 6 different friends/families households now use Engin cos of my referrals alone...

Not wanting to jump the gun, but, this would mean that they would be revalued at many stages along the way to this, and this will of course mean a tidy increase in return for the loyal shareholders who have believed in it since it's modest beginnings last year. 

A great achievement for such a small aussie company last year, and can't wait to see it all unfold.


----------



## pharaoh (1 May 2006)

Thanks for the chart too Ann, nice to have your crystal ball charting expertise on this one. 

It seems to be entering it's next stage it seems. Hopefully of course


----------



## ijudge (2 May 2006)

guys

from april 2005 the predicted breakeven point was 30000 paying subs
but from more recent releases they talk about breakeven "early in the new financial year", which to me indicates more like 40,000 paying subs

according to the figures i quoted earlier (if maintained)
this should happen (ie 40000), in the june month this year (ie a little before end of this financial year)
ie, things would be ahead of schedule from the march 2006 release

anyhow

i believe there was reference to a board meeting happening this friday, and perhaps we will see some info from that

i was happy with the figures, but i must say i can not confirm them to be 100% correct, but i do trust the guy who told me


ij


----------



## pharaoh (2 May 2006)

Yep, the board meeting is this friday - I spoke to one of the directors during the week. 

Hopefully something will come from the meeting, ann wise.


----------



## mick (2 May 2006)

Anyone have any suggestions on the share price movement today?


----------



## Mumbank (2 May 2006)

Nice little run, must be some good news coming - lets hope


----------



## crazyadventures (2 May 2006)

If there's a board meeting this week and a member of this forum who knows a director - can you get a message to them please?

I'd like an update on the Broadband over Power Lines trial that Aurora are running in Australia and what uptake of Engin they've had as a result of this initiative.

This would be of interest - as if this trial is successful, we could see a major errosion of Telstra's foothold on ADSL/broadband, which is required to underpin VoIP.

Imagine the total cost saving if you had power, broadband and voice (VoIP) in one bundled service offerring !!!

There's been little feedback from Engin on the trial and I for one am keen to get an update.


----------



## sandik17 (2 May 2006)

crazyadventures said:
			
		

> There's been little feedback from Engin on the trial and I for one am keen to get an update.





I agree with you crazy adventures....This information is very hard to come across. The trial was in Tasmania, and any information I can find on it (which is very hard to come across) has been very positive.  I believe this trial is of imperative importance for Engin.  

To answer your question Mick....

Anyone have any suggestions on the share price movement today?

History with this SP shows a wiff of news will push the sp north.  And I expect that there is some very positive news coming.  

The expected breakeven in June seemed to be a very long way away .... and now we're almost here.  IF, and I know it is an IF, they are at breakeven stage then this is certainly indicative that ENG is certainly the market leader in VoIP and IMO these prices will be a thing of the past.....so I guess I'm not the only one thinking that and trying to buy in pre 50c!


----------



## YChromozome (2 May 2006)

I'm not sure if you will get much information about the BPL trials until it is publically released.

However the trial does have a website : 
http://www.tastel.com.au/bpl/index.html

It looks like trial participants get the service without any monthly fee. 

"The trial will be conducted for up to 12 months after which a full-scale rollout will offer one of the best deals for broadband over powerlines in Australia. In the event that services are not continued, customers will be transitioned out of the service at no cost. " - So all indications so far is there will be a full scale rollout.

What I do find of interest is the VoIP Pricing. Pricing seems to be significant more that Engin's normal rates. They even charge for TasTel BPL to TasTel BPL calls which on the Engin network are free. I'm not sure if there is a monthly fee for VoIP, but if there isn't then that could be why the prices are higher. 

It is good to see some type of bundling. If you have a look at other similar deals such as the Unwired (Wireless Broadband)/Freshtel agreement, Unwired simply puts a link on their website saying you can get VoIP services from Freshtel. There is no real incentive to sign up with Freshtel, and as many Unwired customers have, they have gone with other providers such as Engin.

The bundling in TasTel example helps give some incentive to use Engin over any other provider. After all, once you have broadband access, you can choose any VoIP provider - you are not locked into just Engin. Some network providers will offer QoS (Quality of Service) to their agreed VoIP carrier, but generally if you have a good network, it does mater. Most of the Internet today has no QoS and it hasn't effected Engin's current customers.

One possible risk I see is TasTel is a partnership between Aurora Energy and AAPT. I hope they are happy with Engin, because you do wonder what would happen if AAPT introduced their own VoIP service.


----------



## crazyadventures (2 May 2006)

Whilst old news, the following might be of interest to some who want to know what Engin are doing in the small to medium business market: -

http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/commun...minnow_goes_VoIP/0,2000061791,39236978,00.htm

Also, the Engin CEO is one of the presenters at an upcoming VoIP seminar.  Good to see participation in these kind of events!

http://www.acevents.com.au/voip2006/index.html#about


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## pharaoh (2 May 2006)

Hi all

I just emailed the address on the Tas trial site, asking if they are happy with the engin service, and how it was going. 
Will share any feedback I get. 

On asking Engin, am happy to call them tomorrow. 

I don't know the guy, when I have a question I just jump on the phone and ring them. 

They are very approachable. 

Will let you know if I find anything out. 

So that is what Ikka Tales looks like....
It is good they present at conferences - they have been very good at doing that actually, he has spoken at quite a few of these now I think


----------



## pharaoh (3 May 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - Tassie update*

Hi all 

I came across this on another forum tonight, courtesy of another Engin holder. I thought you may be happy to recieve this. 
I quote: 

I emailed the TasTel people yesterday and asked how the engin trial was going, and they were kind enough to respond to me in really good time.

Dear .....
We have had a number of customers reporting good, reliable phone service.

We are looking at around 6-12 months for the BPL trial to be over and the product to be available state wide within Tasmania.

TasTel BPL Customer Service
GPO Box 1799 HOBART Tasmania 7001
Telesales - 1300 765 275
Service and general enquiries - 1300 787 275
Webpage: - http://www.tastel.com.au/bpl

------------

Not bad? Sure, short and sweet, but good to see the trial is going well, and they are moving forward with rolling out in 6-12 months, that's right, with ENGIN!!!

Imagine how many new customers "could" come online in Tasmania, all with Engin once this takes off!!!!

Do the numbers I say...

The population in Tassie is currently almost 500,000

If they only capture 10%, that is a potential influx of up to 50,0000 new customers - possibly in 6 months, maybe a few more.

If it goes crazy, well, I think we all know what could happen.
And why wouldn't it, you have power points in your house, you can get broadband on it, and hey, you can get cheap phone services too - now I'd sign up for that!!!


----------



## crazyadventures (3 May 2006)

Not wanting to dampen the enthusiasm, but without knowing how many people the BPL trial is currently rolled out to it's hard to predict.

This is why some form of update from Engin management is required - as without knowing how many people the BPL trial is currently rolled out to it's hard to predict.

I'm not sure when the next AGM is, but I might take liberty to write directly to Ilkka with a series of questions to ensure my voting is based on my perception and measurement of the board/managements performance (noting the performance incentives they stand to gain!).  Whilst I don't quite crack a mention in the top 20 shareholders, every vote sends a message that we want whats best for the long term share price.

The questions I have in mind are as follows: -

Update on Tasmanian BPL trial with Aurora.  Number of BPL users and of these how many use Engin and what percentage of total revenue this consitutes (remember, it's only a trial and if it is not extended we actually stand to loose this subscriber base).  On this point, I'll also seek clarity on whether the subscriber numbers reported are inclusive or exclusive of the BPL trial.

Call volumes categorised by fixed vs variable price.  I'd also like to see this expressed in terms of revenue and the growth rates in volumes.  Afterall, eventually the rate of subscriber uptake will start to tail off and frequency and type of usage then become a key determining factor in revenue growth.

Initiatives to penetrate other markets - for example, I really would like to see Engin target youth hostels, hotels, conventions (a mobile Engin VoIP(phone)box??), really anywhere that there is potential demand from transient users.  I recall fondly calling Australia from Peru using VoIP more than 4 years ago!  There's a revenue stream to be tapped.

Clarification on the subscriber numbers required to reach breakeven.  Is this figure 30K or 40K and have operational efficiences been achieved to realise breakeven sooner?  Furthermore, what internal initiatives are under way to achieve a sustainable and optimal Cost Per Subscriber ?

Whether any plans are in place regarding WiFi Voip.


These are only the items I can think of - I'm happy to hear others that people feel could be included for Ilkka and his team to kindly respond to....


----------



## pharaoh (3 May 2006)

Hi crazy 

Great idea. 

Add to that: 

1. How are plans for NZ going?
2. Same for Asia expansion
3. Were the interference problems in Tassie trial overcome? 
4. Is the current 2 for 1 offer increasing sign ups - potentially could double the number of new customers of every sales call in
5. Are dividends on the cards this year

I understand your realistic view of Tassie trialm but at least it sounds very very positive, it was only a trial with no results until today - at least now it "seems" they will roll it out in 6 months, and did not indicate they would do anything else but continue the rollout with Engin as the infrastructure

cheers


----------



## crazyadventures (3 May 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> ......
> 1. How are plans for NZ going?
> 2. Same for Asia expansion
> 3. Were the interference problems in Tassie trial overcome?
> ...




Good ones to add.

Don't expect that an answer on question 5 would be forthcoming though and suspect they'd want to have 12 months in the black before making any distribution and setting expectations on ongoing return


----------



## pharaoh (4 May 2006)

Yeah fair enough too. 
I have dug up a bit of info direct from them of late, thanks for running with this one. 

Let us know how you go, would love to get some feedback on all these.


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## pharaoh (4 May 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - nice*

How good was today - it has positioned itself now for the next climb up if you ask me. 

Can't remember if I posted this, but just for the record, if they got 10% of the 500,000 in tas, that would be $45 per user which is $2,250,000 per month revenue......

Up or down in % it is still pretty impressive!


----------



## Mumbank (5 May 2006)

Nice little run this morning, gee the board meeting must have some good news for us.


----------



## pharaoh (8 May 2006)

Dick smith catalogue in the mail today, advertising the Engin 2 for 1 offer today


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## ijudge (9 May 2006)

ENGIN LAUNCHES BREAKTHROUGH VOIP ALL-IN-ONE
DEVICE TO DELIVER BROAD CONNECTIVITY FEATURE SET

engin’s Voice Box Series 3 all-in-one combines wireless router and ADSL modem functionality with VoIP service

Sydney, 9 May 2006: engin today set a new benchmark in VoIP services, which improve cost savings while reducing phone and computer complexity for Australians, with the launch of the all-in-one engin Voice Box Series 3.

The engin Voice Box Series 3 converts normal analogue phone signals to digital and sends them over a broadband connection allowing ADSL broadband users to connect their existing telephone line to make and receive calls from their current telephone number and at the same time benefit from engin’s low cost local, national, international and mobile call rates.

engin’s Voice Box Series 3 incorporates plug and play simplicity, allowing home and business users to make calls to and receive calls from any landline, international destination and mobile phone over their existing broadband Internet connection. engin Voice Box Series 3 is one the most advanced VoIP units on the market and includes a range of exciting new features:

! ADSL/ADSL2+ modem so end users can connect to their Internet Service Provider (ISP)

! Connect up to two engin services plus the option of connecting your existing phone line so that you can still receive phone calls from your existing phone number

! Wireless Router allows end users to connect additional devices to the Internetusing a wireless and wired connection

! Automatic detection and configuration of both the engin service and modem and router

! Four Ethernet ports and comprehensive security features such as a double firewall, Denial of Service (DoS) attack prevention and intrusion detection and prevention (IDS) engin Voice Box Series 3 also includes voicemail, call waiting, call forwarding, caller ID, call line ID and turbo dialing.

“The day-to-day demands of telephony and desktop computing have just become a lot easier and cheaper with the all-in-one engin Voice Box Series 3,” said Ilkka Tales, Chief Executive Officer, engin. “engin is committed to helping Aussies drive down the cost of their home or office phone bills, while removing the complexity of today’s digital devices. We are very excited with the features of the new engin Voice Box Series 3, which puts even more simplicity, control and massive savings in the hands of our customers.”

Built by NETGEAR, the engin Voice Box Series 3 includes a money back guarantee, 30 day trial and two year NETGEAR warranty. engin Voice Box Series 3 will be available for $319 RRP in Australia from late June 2006 on the shelves of Australian retailers , through engin’s resellers or direct at www.engin.com.au and 1300 305 000.

ij


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## ijudge (9 May 2006)

ENGIN ANNOUNCES NEW VOIP WORLD FIRST

engin collaborates with Optima to revolutionise desktop VoIP for home and office

Sydney, 9 May 2006: engin, the Australian broadband phone company, today
announced a new VoIP solution for desktop PCs. In collaboration with Optima,
Australia’s largest technology manufacturer of personal computers, notebooks and servers, engin is making VoIP connectivity easier than ever with a new desktop PCbased solution.
The companies have developed this revolutionary built-in capability which enables users to make VoIP calls through their standard telephone by taking advantage of the PCs existing broadband internet connection. engin’s solution will be made available on selected makes and models of Optima’s desktop PC products from late June this year.

Commenting on the collaboration, Ilkka Tales, CEO, engin, stated: “We are excited to be raising the broadband bar another notch in this new VoIP solution, which will change the way VoIP is used at the desktop. By pioneering this new technology with Optima, users can enjoy the substantial savings delivered by broadband telephony by connecting a standard phone straight to their desktop.”

“Optima is committed in bringing first to market new technologies by combining user communications with premium Australian custom built IT systems,” added Cornel Ung, Managing Director, Optima.


ij


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## ijudge (9 May 2006)

About the above releases

they were marked as price sensitive
but really there is not that much price sensitive info there

they did not release subscriber numbers/income etc formally to us



ij


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## Fab (9 May 2006)

I just tried to call them to get more information about getting a voice box 3 and after 30 minutes hold the call dropped. Not a good first impression


----------



## RickG (9 May 2006)

While this announcement may not be price senistive, if they follow this up with good subscriber numbers, then I can see this stock taking off (not that it hasnt already).  The more I look at this company the more I like it, technology wise.

And as far as the 30 minute wait... hoping thats because of heaps of new subscribers... although more likely you phoned at lunchtime


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## sandik17 (9 May 2006)

ijudge said:
			
		

> About the above releases
> 
> they were marked as price sensitive
> but really there is not that much price sensitive info there
> ...




Can't agree with you here ijudge. 

Although there were no subscriber numbers/income released, surely the fact that there is this 'affiliation' with Optima, (in Engin's words...Australia’s largest technology manufacturer of personal computers, notebooks and servers), would be enough to drive the sp upwards. 

It is understanding that Optima computers sold after the end of June this year will already come equipped to use voip...therefore eliminating the need for an ATA (analogue Telephone Adapter)...thus enticing even more people to try this new (fantastic and cheap) VoIP technology.

So although I do agree with you ij that the announcement that we have been waiting for...the subscriber and possible break-even figures hasn't come yet...I do believe that this / these announcements are very positive signs for this company and this sp. :dance:


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## YChromozome (9 May 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I just tried to call them to get more information about getting a voice box 3 and after 30 minutes hold the call dropped.




Seem they may have jumped the gun for some reason. The last sentence of the press release says "available for $319 RRP in Australia from late June 2006".


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## crazyadventures (9 May 2006)

Actually - the timing of the announcement may actually be quite deliberate in coming early.

The inclusion of VoIP with Optima laptops will perhaps give a few people buying before the end of the financial year some food for thought.

Remember, laptops can be salary sacrificed, so I Think Engin's timing is great - it sends the message "Wait, we can give you more if you can hold on until end of June" at a time when those eligible are likely to be running the numbers on taking up salary sacrifice options.

With respect to the Voice Box 3 - mmm....premature, perhaps.  But then you can also take the view that they're sending a message to the market that they're development schedule is on target (I recall up to 9 new products in this year are to be released).

This may be why the announcements are marked price sensitive, as it again demonstrates Engin's ability to deliver on management's commitments.


----------



## YChromozome (9 May 2006)

crazyadventures said:
			
		

> Actually - the timing of the announcement may actually be quite deliberate in coming early.




Or it could coincide with the start of the CeBIT trade fair at the Darling Harbour Convention and Exhibition Centre in Sydney. Some 30,000 visitors are expected to make the trek to CeBIT Sydney over the three days.

"VoIP service providers are moving beyond the early adopter stage, but companies with stands at CeBIT are still expecting plenty of new users."

"Engin is using CeBIT as an opportunity to show how VoIP hardware can be built into PCs, allowing users to plug a handset into the back of their computer, rather than buy a separate box. Chief executive Ilkka Tales said the launch of so-called naked DSL products - an ADSL connection without a traditional voice phone line - would drive demand."


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## ctp6360 (9 May 2006)

Holy ****! Onboard/PCI "voice boxes" is a BRILLIANT idea!!! Can you imagine the computers you buy from Harvey Norman and the like coming with a built in internet phone. They could print your new phone number on the front of the computer, package a cheap phone with the thing or get you to buy one, and as soon as you plug in your internet your phone just works.

That is an unbelievable idea! I use engin and have for quite a while now (over a year!) and its an excellent service, so cheap and easy to use and great quality.

I wasn't entirely convinced of this company, but ideas like that make it seem destined for success!!


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## pharaoh (10 May 2006)

It's great news, what it will do is help sustain the current sp, or keep it close either way

DOn't forget kids - the Tassie BPL trial is going well, with Engin providing the voip over a powerline which will carry broadband

Imagine the sub numbers from tassie alone. 

On track for 6 month launch. 

Happy days ahead


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## ijudge (10 May 2006)

Forum

we all seem to be positive about ENG
and I am
I think realistically they could well be worth $1 over the next 3 - 6 months.

Just a word about Optima computers
have a look at their company ASX:OPI
not very healthy company!!!!

Q: What is the lowest a stock can go? $0.005 per share???


perhaps a big retailer would be a better partner?

ij


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## YChromozome (10 May 2006)

Another interesting product at CeBIT was at the PBA/IBurst stand. They have a VoIP Phone with a iBurst wireless modem built in. iBurst, owned by Commander runs a wireless broadband network in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. As its wireless, there is no need for Telstra PSTN line or line rental. "It was an all-in-one standard black desktop phone with an Antenna sticking out the side." The unit was registered with the *Engin* BYO service with was reported to have good voice quality.

Looks like a good alternative to to the expensive Telstra land line.


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## crazyadventures (10 May 2006)

ijudge said:
			
		

> Forum
> 
> Just a word about Optima computers
> have a look at their company ASX:OPI
> ...




FYI ASX:OPI is actually an investment vehicle under the "Optima" umbrella.  Whilst owned by the same parent company, Optima Computer and Optima ICM are not the same thing.....


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## crazyadventures (10 May 2006)

*Takeover target?*

Guys/girls - I had a very interesting discussion with a few colleagues and professional acquaintences in the IT industry about Engin and their market position.

One individual had the view that Telstra may be behind the eight ball with their roll out of VoIP for residential and Engin MAY be a prospective takeover target.

Whilst I don't quite see how Telstra could finance such a deal (although if the T3 sell off of government remainder goes ahead, that might change), what are people's thoughts on likelihood and implications?


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## pharaoh (10 May 2006)

It would seem logical. 
The sp would have to go up a lot for us, I don't know how to do the figures though. 

Anyone???


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## mick (11 May 2006)

Looking at the technical aspect Engin's service is not optimal and there is more work to be completed. For Telstra to take over the service I would imagine it would have to be operating at a very high standard, if not Telstra should be able to easily implement their own VOIP network and compete. The advantage with Telstra's their existing customers and bundling ideas. 

I don't believe Telstra will enter the market quickly. PSTN line rentals and call charges make Telstra very good profit and cutting into your bread and butter is never a good thing, although they will have to at some point because Engin and others are nibbling at that area.

Just my


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## sandik17 (11 May 2006)

http://www.brr.com.au/event/ENG/1744/10960/wmp

this is worth a look...and listen.

It's an interview with Ilka Tales about Eng.  Interesting mention at the end about the VoIP 'revolution' and Eng's competitors.


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## pharaoh (11 May 2006)

Engin is looking very strong, holding nicely for an ann
I am gonna top up a bit tmrw, sandik and all, if you were going to, what would u hope for? 

I am thinking maybe a buy at 45.5


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## Fab (11 May 2006)

I think I will top up at around 38 c not before


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## sandik17 (11 May 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Engin is looking very strong, holding nicely for an ann
> I am gonna top up a bit tmrw, sandik and all, if you were going to, what would u hope for?
> 
> I am thinking maybe a buy at 45.5




I had my order in at .45 the other day, but pulled it.  Hard to say...if there's no financial announcement, sp may drop...and even if / when there is a financial announcment and it's not 'break-even', there may be a drop.
But at the moment it is certainly looking strong and holding very nicely.


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## IGO4IT (11 May 2006)

I think ENG is looking more into new customers gained rather than financially break even, buyers want to see database full of customers & market share secured, money will have to come by force after market share.

the promise was to break even by END of FY & we're still 1 month short of end of FY. if ENG breaks even now on this week's ann then good luck to all holders.


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## YChromozome (11 May 2006)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> http://www.brr.com.au/event/ENG/1744/10960/wmp
> this is worth a look...and listen. . . Interesting mention at the end about the VoIP 'revolution' and Eng's competitors.




Yeah, I've always wondered how the market can exist with all these players and how sustainable some of the businesses are.

Illka reports that of the 143 competitors, 40 no longer exist today. There are 43 'real' competitors to Engin, but the market is likely to see further consolidation in December this year when the ACMA bring in VoIP regulations. This will require VoIP providers to have redundancy, 99.99% uptime, allow triple zero calls and provide access to law enforcement, all services Ilkka indicates was built into Engin since interception. 

Engin is also one of the few Voice Service Providers that have a Telecommunications Licence and I guess abiding by these stricter rules have paid off.


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## sandik17 (12 May 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> if ENG breaks even now on this week's ann then good luck to all holders.





Do you mean an upcoming announcement...or the ones earlier in the week pushing sales?


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## pharaoh (15 May 2006)

*Re: ENG - Engin Limited - announcements out*

2 out today - look at the new subscriber growth!!

If not for the correction today, this would be over 50c

This will go nuts over the next 1-2 months

Engin subscriber line base up 51pc over quarter
14:52, Monday, 15 May 2006

Sydney - Monday - May 15: (RWE Australian Business News) - Engin 
Ltd (ASX code: ENG) today announced its paying subscriber line base 
exceeded 31,000 at April 30, demonstrating continued growth in Voice 
over Internet Protocol subscriber lines.
In the March quarter, Engin's subscriber line rise represented a 
51 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth rate with the number of 
Australians connecting to the Engin service reaching 27,400 at March 31.
Shares in Engin rose 1.5c to 47c today.
ENDS

Also appointed new COO - loads of experience, Barry Evans - came from being COO at Virgin Mobile

If the market sees a retrace, emerging stocks like Engin, which will be saving consumers money on their home phone bills, will rise where others may fall back.

Happy days


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## crazyadventures (15 May 2006)

Does anyone think the announcement of a Chief Operating Officer might indicate that the company has or is rapidly approaching breakeven?

You'd assume this is a salary based role and would require board approval based on sound financials.

This to me indicates that the company believes that certain individuals should now be freed up to grow the business further, whilst someone else "babysits" the day-to-day operation of the subscriber base.

Personally, I read this announcement as as close to confirming breakeven as we are likely to see before the annual report.


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## sandik17 (15 May 2006)

crazyadventures said:
			
		

> Does anyone think the announcement of a Chief Operating Officer might indicate that the company has or is rapidly approaching breakeven?





Crazy, I don't think you will get any arguments from the so-called 'believers' of this stock.  It's going to be a matter of when...not if they reach 'breakeven'.  The management of this company is just high quality.  

I would completely agree with you in regard to the new appointment.  You will also notice that he has significant technological knowledge which is going to be essential to maintaining subscribers as eng keeps growing at such an alarming rate.

There is real potential in this stock, if not long term, then in the next six months as they break even.  There is certainly questions about the competition, but there is going to be government standards enforced by the end of the year, and there will be many that won't stand up.  Many of the 'other' VoIP providers don't offer essentials such as 000, and / or 1800, 13 numbers.  Such items may not be important, however, people are using the VoIP technology such that they are not needing their "land line" anymore...thus leaving a problem with 000 calls.  Engin have always maintained extremely high standards in this regard.

Anyway Crazy, I do believe Bro (broadip) is a contender to Eng, however, at 3.9c a share, I have decided to buy into them also and enjoy the ride again.  (I've watched eng from 9c late last year, bought in at 11c...and took some profits earlier in the year).  Bro are behind the 8 ball however, but do offer a different product, and have a variety of 'investment' interests (such as pocket portal and broadband).

Very interesting days ahead....


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## ijudge (15 May 2006)

Dear Forum

My source for the subscriber numbers were wrong

previous suggestion was 29000, 34400

actual figures were 27400, 31000

still growing at a sound 3400 then 3600 per month

by this estimate we should be 38000 - 40000 byend of finacial year
the previous estimate for breakeven numbers were 30000
i suspect it will now be 40000 (or similiar)

all up quite a good improvement in subscriber numbers
(although a little below what I  thought was correct (i won't trust that bitch who told me again))

i think the big question about this company is will they breakeven
by today's announcement it is becoming more and more likely that they will breakeven


it will be interesting to see how the market prices the stock tomorrow


ij


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## ctp6360 (17 May 2006)

Guys I was thinking of bailing on ENG today, it has been such a **** stock for me lately, until I realised:

1) Clearly the negative market sentiment has not helped anyone
2) All these drops are on really low volume and a really small amount of trades

I think I will wait until the next announcement from ENG before I make a fixed descision, if its positive then we will get the jump we've been hoping for, and if its negative well it will just confirm the break in the uptrend and I'll be happy to get out with my loss.


----------



## YChromozome (17 May 2006)

*MYOB starts net-call engin* - Chris Jenkins - MAY 17, 2006 - Australian IT

Looks like MYOB is going to start offering engin to its SMB customers . . It has signed a reseller partnership with engin.

_ "We were able to negotiate quite a good deal," Mr Reed said. engin services offered to MYOB's small to medium business heartland will provide engin's "Voice Box" hardware, which allows a conventional phone to be used with a VoIP service, for $1, compared to the usual up-front cost of $139. _


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## pharaoh (17 May 2006)

CTP, do what you like, but think u'll be crazy to do so.
This MYOB agreement is going to be huge. They haven't announced it yet, think will wait a few days till market stops being silly. 

myob have a MASSIVE customer base. 

This sets them apart from the rest, big time. 

Hold on, it will be worth the wait...


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## ctp6360 (17 May 2006)

re-read my post man, I'm holding on.


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## pharaoh (17 May 2006)

Cool, just making sure...


----------



## YChromozome (18 May 2006)

crazyadventures said:
			
		

> Update on Tasmanian BPL trial with Aurora.




Aurora wants to light the way with BPL - Dahna McConnachie - 18/05/2006

_Ultra fast Internet is set to race through power lines across Tasmania, with Auroa Energy also seeking to push its Broadband over Powerline (BPL) business model to utilities across the country._

 . . 

_Aurora business development manager, Bob Darwin, said that Aurora is set to announce wholesale plans under the brand name of eAurora and *dive into a full scale state-wide commercial rollout within the next two months*._


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## pharaoh (19 May 2006)

Y, this will be huge.
Don't they have 250,000 customers they plan to market this broadband and voip over powerlines to????


----------



## johnlamp (22 May 2006)

SP in free fall at the moment, yikes!

Is it just the whole market, or something else?

I think it is just the market.


----------



## Fab (23 May 2006)

I believe 0.35 cents is the bottom. I just placed an order for 14000 shares. Not a bad price I believe to enter ENG specially if the gvt decide to boost broadband speed in the near future.


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## ijudge (23 May 2006)

Market sentiment is not good in general for the market

i think eng is feeling this

one interesting thing is that fundamentally the company has not changed
the subscribers have increased
they are on track for breakeven

it is interesting that the stock market has knocked down the price so much
over just a period of a 10 days

when the share price is down is when you should be a buyer
and when it is up you should be a seller

when the share price is down there is a feeling of insecurity that makes you think that this stock is going down to nothing! this is emotion and not logic

people loose money on emotion
and profit with logic

i doubled my holding today (bought another 11000) at 35.5c

i will be halving it when they are on the upside of their trend curve

ij


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## srivest (23 May 2006)

I suppose it depends on how long you want to keep that investment. Studying technical analysis at the moment, books are talking about following trends. So according to what I've read, that would not necessary be a good thing to buy while it is trending down unless your trading period is long enough to show an uptrend (ie: a year).

As you can see on the left, I'm a newbie. So don't flame me if I'm wrong


----------



## Fab (23 May 2006)

I did buy 14000 at 0.35 but as I believed that was a major resistance but it might not hold.
Market sentiment is not great at the moment which makes some good buying opportunities.


----------



## pharaoh (23 May 2006)

Fellow enginites

I sold ALL my stocks today, except for IMP and ENG
I will top up with the proceeds, on just these two stocks tmrw. 

Eng sure has dropped, but so have almost every company I look at - it's massive

As said, it is just on emotion. 

I sold one stock 3 days ago, on emotion, as i thought, oh ****e, I can't let my holding dwindle away to nothing

It went back up 13% on what I sold at - doh. 

So, buy what you believe, don't follow the masses, and buy low, as this is a massive opportunity to get in low, and make huge profits - if you bought up quality stocks tmrw, closed the shares book for 12 months, and then just sold the whole lot in one go, do you really think you would be behind - I think not

Oh, in case you forgot one reason why Engin is such a good investment, they are is the voip behind Aurora energy in Tasmania, broadband+voip package over powerlines. Being launched in 6 months to 250,000 of their customers!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## ijudge (23 May 2006)

Dear Srivest

the stock has been in a down trend the last 10 trading days
the question is where is the bottom of this downtrend
because once it breaks the down trend, it will be heading to the next uptrend

fundamentally there is nothing that has changed about the stock
since the stock was 30% higher some 10 days ago

there was some real vol buying that came in later this afternoon at the upper end of the days trading

the chart pattern today (on candle sticks) is a dragonfly doji (which is essentially a hammer at the end of a down trend), this is a very bullish indicator

i think a good night on wall street, to put the aussie market in the right frame of mind will see some positive movement in ENG tomorrow

however, i do note that ENG is below it's previously demonstrated resistance level, which is a worry


please see attached chart


ij


----------



## ijudge (23 May 2006)

Srivest

have a look at the longer term chart


attached



ij


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## Fab (24 May 2006)

I love green. It is back on  my screen big time today and I am also happy I top up my ENG holding yesterday just before today annoucement. This put back a big smile on my face


----------



## mick (24 May 2006)

I had my order in at $0.36 this morning and missed out  oh well .. was just topping up.


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## crazyadventures (24 May 2006)

Yum!

An $850M expected market by 2009.

Even if Engin can only snare 5% of this, it's a nice $170M incoming!

And it's only 3-4 years hopefully we need to hold on before we see that result!


----------



## ijudge (24 May 2006)

crazyadventures said:
			
		

> Yum!
> 
> An $850M expected market by 2009.
> 
> ...





mate.... i do not think maths was your strong subject!!!

5% of $850m = $42.5m

ij


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## crazyadventures (25 May 2006)

Interesting to see Vonage listed in the US at a discount to their IPO price.  

From what I've read, they've got a larger subscriber base, but aren't yet turning a solid profit.

I wonder if anyone has a share price comparison between the US and AUS teleco's that we might be able to use to gain an indicative price for ENG based on Vonage's SP ?


----------



## ijudge (26 May 2006)

interesting article 
i have been watching vonage (VG:NYSE - use www.nyse.com)
and they came down another 10-12% last night on wall street

fundamentally, the average income per customer for vonage is

$26.63 per month 
(the most commonly used package is $24.99 which included local and national calls and the user pays (quite high rates) for os calls)

net $319 per year.

they currently have 1.6m subscribers, which is growing rapidly 
the previous year loss was something like $175m 
on income of about $300m, there was about $180m of marketing expense. This income was on average of 1m subscribers


Engin is a little different... 
av subscriber income is between $50 - $75 per month depends what you read, ie at the lower amount $50 this is $600 per year. Just ball park figures double what Vonage collects. If Vonage doubled their income for providing the same service on last years figures they would have income of some $600m on the same costs of $480m

and essentially vonage would be profitable


Of course there are a lot of factors including more competition over there in the US, US/AUD rates etc to factor in

but I think it would be hard to have profit at $26 / month income per sub, I think at $50 / month income it is achievable

ij


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## ijudge (29 May 2006)

Any comments about the recent share price movements????


ij


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## pharaoh (31 May 2006)

Re share price movement, i'm fine with it. 
It will hold above 35c till this correction is over, and ann's will be coming soon, on MYOB, BPL, Breakeven etc to send it way up. 

Good news today - read below. 

________________

http://www.mobilised.com.au/content/view/363/1/

M2 Adds Optus, Engin In Quick Succession

Wednesday, 31 May 2006

In the past fortnight M2 Telecommunications Group has signed agreements with engin to resell VoIP service and Optus Communications for the resale of it mobile phone services in a move that significantly increases the range of its offerings.

The agreement announced today with Optus will see the company reseller Optus mobile services to existing and emerging telecommunications service providers through its Wholesale Telecommunications Services subsidiary.

The engin alliance for IP Telephony is to be bundled with the company’s direct sell M2 Mobile offering and will be branded as M2 VoIP.

M2's Managing Director, Vaughan Bowen said of VoIP and the alliance with engin; "We feel we are entering the VoIP market at the right time and with the right partner in engin. We conducted a lengthy evaluation of alternative network providers and the commercial viability of VoIP, which notwithstanding the considerable hype, remains a new protocol with only a select few companies able to generate positive earnings".

"We are in a unique position as we are very profitable, have strong underlying revenues, sizable cash reserves and proven distribution channels. By tapping into engin's VoIP network we will be able to make a very substantial impact in the VoIP market by supplying customers with a differentiated VoIP solution," said Mr. Bowen.

Of the extension to the relationship with Optus, Bowen said, "This is a very significant commercial alliance for M2 and builds on our already close relationship with Optus. M2 and Optus have already identified a number of prospective wholesale customers who have expressed a strong desire to take advantage of the excellent network coverage and mobile product suite offered by Optus. We anticipate some of these customers are capable of generating new mobile connections that would represent considerable growth".

David Katz, acting Manager Director of Optus Wholesale said, "Optus is committed to the wholesale telecommunications market within Australia and this partnership enables us to service and broaden our footprint in the largely untapped segment of mobile wholesalers. Optus looks forward to working with M2 in providing Optus mobile services - this partnership will enable M2 to demonstrate its knowledge to this niche of telco service providers."


----------



## Fab (2 June 2006)

eng does not appear to move much recently. Has anyone got any explaination for it ? My assumption is it might be related to the negative effect of iinet


----------



## pharaoh (3 June 2006)

Fab, holding pattern atm.
Support at 36c which is great

Wait for announcements
I don't trade eng - am just sitting on it, wait for break even, bpl launch etc
I trade others, not eng - but just top up when the wife gives me money...


----------



## Fab (6 June 2006)

Here we go. The announcement of a partnership with Intel sounds great for ENG but share price is only moving slightly higher probably because of the strong drop in the market today. I would expect ENG to go up in the next days. I am happy I recently topped up at 0.35


----------



## sandik17 (6 June 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Here we go. The announcement of a partnership with Intel sounds great for ENG but share price is only moving slightly higher probably because of the strong drop in the market today. I would expect ENG to go up in the next days. I am happy I recently topped up at 0.35





This is absolutely fantastic news for ENG.  Intel are huge and the potential with this is enormous. It won't be long before we see some wonderful movement here...maybe early in the new fin year??


----------



## Fab (9 June 2006)

Not sure why ENG is being hammered today. Down around 11 %. Can anyone explain ?


----------



## BlackTie (9 June 2006)

I'm new to charting.  WOuld it be a Head and Shoulder top reversal?


----------



## pharaoh (9 June 2006)

It's nerves
Gotta be stupid to sell during this whole panic atm

Patience will see us making loads of money on eng

Remember, bpl...


----------



## ijudge (13 June 2006)

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm






ij


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## mick (14 June 2006)

Ouch 27c .. anyone know why it dived so hard?


----------



## BlackTie (14 June 2006)

It looks like it will drop back down to 0.19 - 0.21 level. The neckline.


----------



## Mumbank (14 June 2006)

That is excellent buying value - I'm jut waiting, waiting it is very much undervalued at that price.


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## Fab (14 June 2006)

Panic about interest rate rise and end of financial year seems to be pushing everything down. I am confident that this is only for the short term and should go back up in July.


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## mick (14 June 2006)

This is great for me .. i'm buying in again!


----------



## ijudge (14 June 2006)

more than doubled my holdings today at 27c

very happy




ij


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## pharaoh (16 June 2006)

Many of us did 

This stupid, irrational panic selling is almost funny.
People follow the herds - fair enough on major specs - but to do it on co's with great fundamentals, and future prospects about to come to fruition like eng, well, you gotta face the music when the prices go right back up and you sold for a loss, plus didn't top up while low...

Well, it's good for us...


----------



## Fab (16 June 2006)

Pharoh,

I agree completely with you. The problem with most people is that when there is a big drop like we had in May up to now they panic instead of looking to the fundamental of the company first and invest for the long term (That is how I do it). Historically May and June are bad month partially for technical reason (end of financial year) therefore I see them as well as buying month for me instead of selling in a panic like most people did recently. No reason why the stock market will not bounce back in the next few months. It is already doing that.
I bought some more ENG recently too


----------



## Fab (16 June 2006)

A bit surprising to me that ENG went down almost 5% today when the rest of the market went up


----------



## Fab (20 June 2006)

Why has this stock lost almost 20% in 2 days ????


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## ijudge (21 June 2006)

People

I had a word to the investor relations guy from Engin yesterday

He told me this

1. there has been a billing problem
2. the problem is now corrected
3. no record of calls has been lost
4. those who have not been billed for calls will be billed for calls over the next month or two
5. the billing issue was minor, and affected less than 10% of calls
6. there is no information which is market sensitive that has not been released
7. there have been a number of calls to ask the company to make a statement, reassuring the market that there is no adverse news
8. he is going to raise the issue with the CEO (tales) who will discuss it with the board about an announcement
9. The company expects to break even within the first quarter of next financial year (as previously released)
10. There continues to be increased subscriber number growth at the previously forecast levels
11. nothing has changed with the company
12. the next planned announcement is toward the end of july 2006, at which time subscriber numbers and cash flows will be release


ij


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## mick (21 June 2006)

Thanks for the update

I received a bill yesterday for -$10 which explains the billing issue

The only issue I can see with this is that they may not reach that break even point this month if that money wasn't billed correctly, but overall no big issue we just wait on and had a good chance to top up holdings


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## rawmaterial (21 June 2006)

I've been following this stock for awhile.

Can't really see the fundamental of the stock changing much at all, and watching it went from 46c to 24c it look to be good value IMHO.

So I'm happy to top up at $0.24 yesterday. I'm confident I made the correct decision.   

Good luck everyone.


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## pharaoh (22 June 2006)

Good decision - Engin rocks.
This is just a great 50% off sale at the moment 

Bring on breakeven, BPL launch, etc....


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## Fab (22 June 2006)

ENG down today at opening on announcement of extraordinary meeting.


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## ijudge (22 June 2006)

expanding on track

but no mention of cash position, or revision to EBITDA breakeven date
(which concerns me)

i guess last time cash was raised (at 14c)
the stock went to 24c within 10 days
based essentially on the same information (ie accelerating growth)
but no real cash figures

i think this is why the market has repriced the stock lately
i do not think the market will move much on this announcement

of course I could be proven wrong

i certainly would want to know the cash position prior to saying yes to more funds


ij


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## Fab (22 June 2006)

Not a good day -11% but very strong resistance at 0.24.


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## crazyadventures (22 June 2006)

There are three concerns I have with today's announcement

1) Does this mean that the $4.1M raised in Jan 06 has been exhausted and there are problems with cash flow?

2) The perception that 100,000 customers can be achieved by June 07.  

Based on the 40,000 figure quoted in today's relase, this would require a sustained increase of 5,000/month for next 12 months. 

Looking at the last few months, the rate appears to have reached a plateau and I'd want to establish what strategies the company has to increase the per month uptake.  Such strategies I'd also want to see take into account any issues that delays to BPL roll out may introduce.

3) Placement is at the discretion of Board.

Sure - but don't the Board represent shareholder interest???? 

I'd want to see placement made with institutional investors to see strong financial backing for the stock....

All these things in mind - I am wary of voting no, as this may also result in impeding the company's strategy.


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## pch (22 June 2006)

I may be missing something - i just read the announcement, but it seems to me that how can one achieve 'breakeven' if you have to issue 50 million more shares to fund further capital to get you to the next goal (100,000 subscribers)?


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## ijudge (22 June 2006)

Comment......

Company has gone from

30 Jun 05 ---> 5800
31 Dec 06 ---> 18000
30 Jun 06 ---> 40000

if this rate of growth continues

i could see that 100 000 by mid next year is very easily achievable

ij


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## pch (23 June 2006)

Don't get me wrong i'm just playing devils advocate here.. 

They are impressive growth numbers absolutely, but a lot of the exuberence on this thread a few weeks back stemmed from this magical breakeven point at 40,000 subscribers. Now they need to dilute the shares some 25% more to raise capital to upgrade infrastructure and expanded marketing to cope with this larger number to bring them onto 100,000.

So therefore was 40,000 ever a realistic figure?


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## Fab (23 June 2006)

Not a good day today -21%. Might make for very good buying opportunities.


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## mick (23 June 2006)

Definitely good buying .. I got more at 22c .. just threw it in thinking it was low!


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## ijudge (23 June 2006)

22 c might seem low today

but i thought 24c was low the other day

then before i thought 27c was low


i wonder what i will think on monday



ij


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## LPA (23 June 2006)

I guess my only real problem with this company is that everyone I know who uses it is constantly complaining about poor reception/bad lines.  To the point where my friend will actually hang up that phone when I call him and call me back on a normal one   not a good sign imho...


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## YChromozome (23 June 2006)

LPA said:
			
		

> I guess my only real problem with this company is that everyone I know who uses it is constantly complaining about poor reception/bad lines.  To the point where my friend will actually hang up that phone when I call him and call me back on a normal one   not a good sign imho...




I don't think that could hold true and engin still be in the position they are in now. Illka Tales said at a breakfast earlier in the year that they commonly encounter these problems, where subscribers sign up with budget ISPs and are not getting what they pay for. Just because person XYZ brought a 512/128k broadband service doesn't mean you are getting these speeds and there are no congestion. This is dependant upon the ISP. Unfortunately engin can control their connections to the backbone internet, but have no control over what ISP the customer chooses to connect with, the quality of the customers router or technical capability of their setup.

My experience has been contrary to you. I have Engin on an Internode ADSL connection in Adelaide. I have a friend using Engin, also on an Internode ADSL connection but in Sydney - he sells the service to his customers. We have never had any issues and quaility has been excellent.

I had a chap ring me on Tuesday night for an hour. He was ringing from his Engin service connected to Bigpond cable. I noticed no problems during the call, and I asked him what he though of the service. As he is on cable, he is over the moon. No phone line rental and his engin service has been excellent.

If engin was a bad as you say for every customer, then I would be questioning their growth figures. The fact is quaility only effects a small percentage of customers and is the majority of cases, the cause is outside of engin's network and beyond their control. The same problems exist with all Voice Service Providers.


----------



## YChromozome (24 June 2006)

pch said:
			
		

> Don't get me wrong i'm just playing devils advocate here..
> 
> They are impressive growth numbers absolutely, but a lot of the exuberence on this thread a few weeks back stemmed from this magical breakeven point at 40,000 subscribers. Now they need to dilute the shares some 25% more to raise capital to upgrade infrastructure and expanded marketing to cope with this larger number to bring them onto 100,000.
> 
> So therefore was 40,000 ever a realistic figure?





I guess you can look at it both ways. They could just wait for 40,000 customers and then close their sales office and refuse to sign up any more customers. Their current network is more than capable of handing this number, and they wouldn't have to raise any additional capital. When they break even in a couple of months, they could start putting those funds away, or get a loan for capital expenditure to support a network expansion. Then towards the end of the year, they could open the sales line and start signing up customers again.


I think engin has been having trouble keeping abreast of growth and there has been some evidence where they have been slow to keep the network in front. I guess as soon as they finish one upgrade, they are ready for the next. If they don't manage this properly, then they could be in trouble.

It was a presentation last year that suggested break even would be 40,000 customers.

In a presentation from engin earlier this year, they indicated in the "near future" they would be expanding their network to support 250,000 subscriber lines, move into New Zealand and "scale backend for growth". So a capital raising should have been expected. It's also a high growth sector and lots of things have changed between the break even announcement last year and present.  

While its a little sketchy on what the money will be used for, they do indicate  it will be used for upgrading "network and support systems to provide a step change in the Company’s operating capacity." While the "company expects to be serving in excess of 100,000 subscriber lines by June 2007", I wouldn't be surprised if this 'step change' will be infrastructure to support the initial target of 250,000 subscriber lines. This would then be give the company some head room for growth should predictions be light and also means this is probably going to be the last significant capital expenditure in a while.

You also have to remember economies of scale and that this will help to lower costs. They also indicate the money could be used for "geographical expansion". This could mean New Zealand, but I read it as extra gateways into additional local call connection points. Another presentation late last year indicated "Additional gateways will be deployed to increase margins" At the moment they have 12 gateways or local call collection points meaning they ware any extra costs where calls must transit another telcos network to reach a local call collection point that engin doesn't have a presence in. Expanding this network, will as the presentation suggest, will help increase margins.

I see the news as quite positive. Engin have been in the business long enough to understand the growth issues, and indications to increase the network to 250,000 indicates they are confident this equipment wont collect dust and never get used.

That's my spin on it.


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## pch (24 June 2006)

All good points. I should have disclosed that I built an ISP in 1999-2003 so I am very much aware of the internal goings on and the sorts of infrastructure challenges posed. Therefore I always felt that Engin were at the mercy of ISP's that massively oversubscribe (we did and my former colleagues still in the business also do too).

ISP margins are so low that its an effective way to compete with the Telstras of the world who charge more to their wholesalers than they charge retail..

Unfortunately engin have no control over this and all they can hope to do (and they are doing) is negotiating alliances with ISP's so that they can guarantee true QOS. Anyone who thinks that a box that says 'Quality of Service' as a feature actually gives them anything is kidding themselves. It is not QOS until all parties agree on how to handle voice traffic end to end. A typical example of end to end for most ISP's is:

engin box -> last mile -> Telstra DSLAM -> Telstra ATM mesh - > *ISP ATM feed to Telstra* -> ISP infrastructure -> *ISP upfeed* -> internet -> engin infrastructure -> engin SS7 type PSTN gateway -> phone network

The items marked with * is there the ISP scrimps and the 'Telstra ATM mesh' bandwidth is also beyond the ISP's control. Telstra is not about to treat engin voice traffic with any priority..

Please don't get me wrong - I'm not anti engin at all and I haven't really sat down to work out what I think its fair value is. (no I don't hold yet but I follow all ISP and telco stocks). I just think its important that people need to understand that there is more to VOIP than just 'cheap phone calls'.

ps - No ISP in Australia has mastered billing yet  Its a major, major challenge, but thats another long winded story for another time


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## redandgreen (24 June 2006)

Article in AFR today  interviewing the CEO.
He addresses many of the market's concerns.  
There seems to be a sentiment problem associated with this stock esp. in light of the experience of certain VoIP providers in the US.
Fortunately for  ENG shareholders,  Ilkka Tales claims the Eng business model is quite different and therefore will not be beset by the same problems experienced by the US providers.
As a shareholder, I feel a little bit more comfortable about continuing to hold for the time being......


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## ijudge (24 June 2006)

I read the article

He says Engin has the cash to continue trading without raising new equity

but this would not give them the ability to accelerate marketing

he says the cost of customer acquisition is less than $100
(note Vonage is $290)

he says they have expanded to NZ

generally a positive article

I must agree, I feel a little more comfortable holding for the moment
and perhaps purchasing more!!!




ij


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## Fab (26 June 2006)

Buying more maybe a good idea as it is trading at around 0.19. The problem is that it fell very heavily in the last few days.


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## pharaoh (26 June 2006)

fab, will be a good top up time, and trading also
as is oversold imo, small gains could be made over the coming weeks by buying in the panic and selling as it bounces


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## Fab (27 June 2006)

Pharaoh,

Sounds like you were right. Up 25% today. Looks to be that the annoucement they made had a relief effect on the market


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## Fab (27 June 2006)

Pharaoh,

Sounds like you were right. Up 25% today. Looks to be that the annoucement they made had a relief effect on the market


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## pharaoh (27 June 2006)

exellent
its nice to be right occasionally

the selloff has been stupid really. glad its back on track now
watch everyone buy back in once they have sold off for tax loss purposes


----------



## chennyleeeee (28 June 2006)

This stocks definately going into my watchlist. With volatility like that, how wouldnt be happy with this.   

CHEN


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## BrownHornet (2 July 2006)

I have been interested in this thread for some time. Followed it closely and the movements on the ASX. I fall into the sceptic parcel. Why. So little action by Engin to consolidate FTM position.

_Thursday, 07 July 2005  
News that VoIP provider Engin is planning a capital raising that will nearly double its market capitalisation has revealed the company is set to embark on a massive TV, print and radio campaign to drive subscriptions to its Internet Telephony services. _ 

So they capital raised in 2005 for this massive campaign. Results? Everyone...A lot of contibutions here have been +ve about break even for months. Still not here. I certainly saw little evidence of this massive campaign. Most people I speak to know little about Engin. A good sign it is having little impact.

Why is this stock talked up so much. I feel for all those that purchased since Feb when it made its move. The vast majority would be writing of losses. 

Pure speculative stock in my opinion. Glad I didn't jump on board and follow the masses, My fear for Engin is that by the time they make a serious move on the market new technologies and companies will move in. Anyone Remember tech boom and stocks like PLX? We can talk up all of these stocks like UNW (I consider in the same basket) still not showing results

Just my thoughts. yes I know it is my first post here why would you listen to my thoughts? I suspect there are many who don't contribute but read these forums. They deserve the bear as well as bull.


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## pharaoh (4 July 2006)

Hi browngornet

No, it's good to have a balanced view on each stock
this site, unlike say HC is good in that few blindly ramp stocks, as with a smaller group, we are all accountable to each other.

I have always been bullish on Engin. 

Why? Cos I like their fundamentals, how they have shown initiative by saying they will build the subscriber base, which they have done, and it's a brilliant trading stock. 

It was 6c last year, 16c Jan, 49c a few months ago, 17c a few weeks ago, and 25c today. 

Wow. If you believe in the company, like I do, you could have made wonderful profits along the way. 

They are on the back of taxi's, ceo Ikka Tales speaks at some of the biggest telco / IP forums, and they are growing 4000 a month.

BPL is coming soon, and that will be huge for them. 

Just my thoughts, but I have done very well so far and once breakeven comes, should be happy days to continue...


----------



## crazyadventures (4 July 2006)

*Clarification on meaning of "breakeven"*

Hi everyone.

I'm not sure if the concept of "breakeven" and the implication of the capital raising have been misconstrued a little.

Financially (IMHO), Engin can declare breakeven when their monthly operational costs (salaries, running expenses, lease etc) can be covered from revenues generated each month.

Effectively the company reaches a point of equilibirum - ie. subscriber numbers are stable (not declining) and there would be a "cap" on the number of subscribers they could service.

The capital raising is being pitched as a means to ensure future expansion initiatives can be realised/supported.

As such, shareholders are voting effectively one of two ways - to remain "as is" or to "position for further expansion".

Taking something like BPL - if this reaches market maturity and there is large uptake, the company needs to be positioned to take advantge of their tentative foothold.

Thus, raising capital now to position themselves.

An alternate to a capital raising may be to borrow the money and run debt.  Of course, this requires the revenue streams to be able to service such debt, which is what growing the customer base is aimed at achieving!

One needs the (network) capacity to achieve this growth and delaying the expansion may mean we lose a window of opportunity.

I just hope that the Engin board consider the support ongoing shareholders (to date) have lent the company and consider something like a "one for two" offer or rights issue.

Just my


----------



## mick (26 July 2006)

Any comments on the latest outcomes? Does anyone know when the next announcement will be roughly displaying figures?

I regard this as good buying still personally

Thanks
Mick


----------



## sandik17 (26 July 2006)

Of course this is still a good buy.  Eng are the market leaders in VoiP...and VoiP is the way of the future in telephony....including video/conference calls and the like.

I am holding mine, and intend to buy more in the spp that was voted on yesterday at the egm.

It may not be by christmas...but these shares will be on the other side of 50c soon.


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## mick (26 July 2006)

Sorry if this is blatantly obvious or in a media release but do you know what the process is going to be for the new share issues?

Thanks
Mick


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## crazyadventures (28 July 2006)

Mick - if I read correctly, existing shareholders will be entitled to purchase up to $5000 of stock.  Reading the releases on the ASX web for Engin, appears placement will be targetted to increase liquidity of stock (ie. large parcels to major investors).


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## Fab (6 August 2006)

When will the new shares be issued ? Iam thinking to buy some more.
I would be interested to know if someone could let me know what are the forecast on ENG, it sounds to me like a good stock but there is a lot of competition out there and with broadband speed being capped by Telstra the growth prospect in the short term does not appear that good , to me they can only try to increase the customer base.
I like the fact that they have been starting paying some good dividend so I am not sure this will be regular as the share price has been goind down recently.
Any feedback or comments will be welcome .

Cheers


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## watsonc (6 August 2006)

This is a risky stock, but it has great potential.  I think it is one of those services that spreads well by word of mouth.

Remember Internet and Broadband usage will increase a s##tload over the next 5 years. That means increased potential for this stock to grow quickly.


----------



## Fab (6 August 2006)

I understand they are risk. I go by the experience that happened in country like France where they are already on speed that are over 10 times faster than the one in Australia and Engin box type of reseller spread everywhere. The main think to do at this stage in my opinion is grow the customer base which ENG is doing and the main issue in the future is competition and how to make a dollar out of a service which does not cost much.
I like ENG but I see it as a risky stock too. My question is why a company like ENG would succeed instead of other VOIP reseller ??


----------



## BrownHornet (7 August 2006)

I must say I have to agree with FAB. Risky stock yes. It is a spec at best.

Others have mentioned that word of mouth is one of the keys to this stock. I must admit I have thought it is not a bad product. I use. However, when my brother was looking at VOIP it makes much more sense to bunddle with his current ISP. In fact, many ISP offer free VOIP minutes.

This leads me to think. If you can get it free why purchase it? Same argument as MP3. Secondly all local (Aust wide) calls are same price as ENG.
I admit international are more expensive with his ISP.

Still this is offset as no need to buy a VioiceBox (Engin specific hardware). 

With all of this said the major barrier to ENG Voip (for the average punter) is difficulty of setup. If you can call your existing isp, use a standard handset and simply plug into your router why go with ENG.

Im loosing faith in this stock. When I cannot recommend myself it is time to move on.

Just my thought. I would like constructive critism of it. Major upside with ENG is bussiness VOIP.

I love to play devils advocate


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## Dukey (18 August 2006)

G'day all.
I've held this one since Jan. Managed to cash some in on the spike. 
But now I'm wondering about the effect of the current capital raising on the share price from now until after the new shares are issued??  Does anyone have any ideas on this??

I would expect that - barring some big news, they could be pretty flat until well after the new issue.   Is that a reasonable expectation?

The other issue bothering me is - when will the big players ie. Telstra get onboard and claim their stake, and try to recapture market share and customers.

Any ideas or opinions out there??


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## watsonc (18 August 2006)

I have little experience with the effects of capital raisings on share prices.
At the moment ENG would still be acquiring about 4000 new customers a month. Perhaps a few more deals could be struck with other related companies as well.

Telstra could offer the same services as ENG at a lower price, but at the moment I can't really see them doing it. This service is a hell of a lot cheaper, and would mean reduced revenues for telstra.

There are a lot of Bigpond customers out there, and Telstra could offer a voip service to all the Bigpond customers perhaps, but I don't see it happening.

With higher interest rates, and high fuel costs, people's disposable income is stretch - which could lead to more people switching to ENG's cheaper service!!!

Voip is the way of the future, today no one can live without the internet, and soon no one with be able the survive without their voip phone.


----------



## Dukey (18 August 2006)

Yeah - thanks Watsonc.

I guess i figure that Telstra will lose revenue to voip whether they are in it or not - but in the long haul - wouldnt they lose more revenue if their customer are migrating to alternative providers??

good point about disposable income - surely everyone is looking to save a few bucks here and there.    - thats gotta be good for voip.


----------



## aobed (18 August 2006)

Dukey said:
			
		

> G'day all.
> I've held this one since Jan. Managed to cash some in on the spike.
> But now I'm wondering about the effect of the current capital raising on the share price from now until after the new shares are issued??  Does anyone have any ideas on this??
> 
> ...




I've been wondering the same thing and have also held onto these shares making some small profits along the way.  

The share price has been on a gradual decline since the spike.. I think the concept and the product itself is quite good however it doesn't seem to be reflected in the share price.  I actually use the engin service and have been very happy with the product.

My concern would be that there are very few listed buyers and there doesn't seem to be much support below the 22-24 cent range.. i.e. this could drop quite a deal further


----------



## Dukey (18 August 2006)

Seems fairly stable 22-24 c lately. But who knows? 
Of course the other possibility is that, even if the price drops - that will mean the spp price will be lower too. Maybe it will be a good buying opportunity.

Or would it be better to wait until the proposed expansion is in place and the advertising is doing its thing pulling in new customers etc.

-Dukey


----------



## aobed (18 August 2006)

Dukey said:
			
		

> Seems fairly stable 22-24 c lately. But who knows?
> Of course the other possibility is that, even if the price drops - that will mean the spp price will be lower too. Maybe it will be a good buying opportunity.
> 
> Or would it be better to wait until the proposed expansion is in place and the advertising is doing its thing pulling in new customers etc.
> ...




Out of curiosity (and my down laziness) do you have a schedule or timeframe as to when the proposed expansion will take place?


----------



## Dukey (18 August 2006)

I dont think they've said anything solid about the expansion timeframe yet.

But I'm not sure - I'll check some announcements later. But gottta go for now...


----------



## Fab (2 September 2006)

When are the results due ???


----------



## pharaoh (3 September 2006)

i'd expect mid to late sept
only going on past ann's and gut feel


----------



## rawmaterial (5 September 2006)

Anyone saw a big volume jump right before closing on this today?

Went from 545,300 to 1,021,999 within the last 10 minute.   

Anyone kind to offer the cause of this? Annuncement maybe on the pipeline?


----------



## watsonc (5 September 2006)

There must be good news around the corner. Or maybe investors forgot about this one, and suddenly realised the ENG's results are due for reporting.

Many businesses in Tamworth (a country town) have been switching to the Engin service. I think all things are going well for the company at the moment.

Maybe Telstra might make an offer (a take over bid) lol.


----------



## Fab (5 September 2006)

A take over bid would be great. ENG is a leader in this market in Australia and if I go with my experience of voip in other country this should be a winner. My only issue is I don't know how long it will take


----------



## ijudge (5 September 2006)

Members


I suspect the accounts have been prepared and will be presented within the next 1 - 2 weeks.

Like seems to be the case with this stock, when an annoucement that is favourable is going to be made then people seem to know 1 - 2 weeks prior and the share price moves.

Just look at how the share price moved prior to the annoucement of the EGM and the issueing of new shares


anyhow

I think there will be a lot of interest in the stock tomorrow



ij


----------



## Fab (6 September 2006)

Look like you are correct. Big jump this morning


----------



## sandik17 (6 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Look like you are correct. Big jump this morning





Must be good news on the horizon...all who held will be rewarded with this one.


----------



## rawmaterial (6 September 2006)

I'm glad that I got in while its low and more importantly held them after such low activities for the pass few months.

11.11% yesterday and so far 12% today.

I suspect maybe it is news about finally break even or,
take over?


----------



## watsonc (6 September 2006)

The break even seems more likely.

If it were a takeover, which companies would be interested? Telstra? Singapore Telecommunications Limited? TEL - New Zealand? Or a company not in the telecommuncations business?


----------



## wastedgnome (6 September 2006)

strongly doubt it'd be a takeover bid. telstra is too busy twiddling its thumbs over how to get out of the rut it's in.

i'd say it's the annual report with sound financial results .


----------



## rawmaterial (7 September 2006)

We'll see how this one open today, will it open strongly like yesterday or maybe we'll see some profit takers?


----------



## Fab (8 September 2006)

It keeps on going up today 0.30 at the moment. I like this momentum


----------



## sandik17 (9 September 2006)

Apparently announcement is due on Tuesday...should be an interesting week for this little one! 

    ​


----------



## watsonc (9 September 2006)

People certainly must be expecting good results. This company could go so far, provided Telstra or someone else doesn't blow them out of the water!


----------



## Fab (11 September 2006)

Looking good. It went up again today in an otherwise very bad market


----------



## pharaoh (11 September 2006)

Anyone think there will be a trading halt, or will they just release the news?


----------



## Fab (12 September 2006)

Probably not today   
Holding not too bad considering how badly the market is going


----------



## trader (12 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Probably not today
> Holding not too bad considering how badly the market is going



You have got to be joking , they are down nearly 20 % and hit a low of 23 cents . There is talk of more capital raising so breakeven has probably not been achieved . Make no mistake this is bad news . Share price will drop to low of 20 cents.


----------



## Mumbank (12 September 2006)

Everything is down big today.  I'm not panicking because there was strong buying before they got the speeding ticket.

I'm a little sick of seeing red arrows today though.


----------



## pharaoh (12 September 2006)

Bad day today - nit I know why, I bought back in so down she went   

Anyway, in relation to:
_You have got to be joking , they are down nearly 20 % and hit a low of 23 cents . There is talk of more capital raising so breakeven has probably not been achieved . Make no mistake this is bad news . Share price will drop to low of 20 cents._

Trader, no, sorry but you have to be joking. 
Read up on the ann before making statements - you obviously dont know the stock

The cap raising was known for ages, they have $3m in the bank, heaps, but they want to do a marketing blitz and expand

This should go well beyond 30c in the coming week

Anyway, no one answered this question before - do you think they will trading halt tmrw, or just release the news?

Cheers...


----------



## YChromozome (12 September 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> The cap raising was known for ages




Trader, not only that - we shareholders even voted on it. Yawns. Old news.


----------



## crazyadventures (12 September 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Bad day today - nit I know why, I bought back in so down she went
> 
> Anyway, in relation to:
> _You have got to be joking , they are down nearly 20 % and hit a low of 23 cents . There is talk of more capital raising so breakeven has probably not been achieved . Make no mistake this is bad news . Share price will drop to low of 20 cents._
> ...




Pharaoh - thanks for echoing my sentiment .....all that changed today was some news that engin are seeking advice on whom to make placement with....potentially either someone wants a big slice of the pie or there are some parties at the table engin want to negotiate with 

With respect to trading halt - no, I don't think so.  As today's announcement says, things must be at early stages and engin feel that when discussion proceeds to reasonable point, then they'll inform the market.  I'd expect to see trading halt then if there's any partnerships or significant commercial arrangements.

Results I think will just come in due course as is.....


----------



## pharaoh (12 September 2006)

cool, thanks crazy
I heard somewhere Paul Jeronimo said ann should be out tomorrow, was meant initially to be today

can't say for sure though, but i'm hoping

Would love to see testing of old highs of 40-50c


----------



## crazyadventures (12 September 2006)

I'm holding on.

I think we'll see some fluctuation over the next few months and it will trade in the 24c to 30c range until we see significant news.

Remember, that most investment/fund managers are governed by certain policies on what they can/can not invest in - usually based on mirroring an index like the All ords etc.

Until Engin have a capitalisation and position in overall market, then institutions are limited in what they can invest.

Breakeven in my view has already been factored into the price.

I think something on the BPL trial in Tasmania and turning that into a full fledged residential and commercial offerring would be the type of significant thing to put sp. to next level.

Alternately, another teleco buying them out would be interesting.  Remember - there's more than Optus or Telstra....someone like iiNet or Singtel etc ?  40,000+ customers to "inherit"  !

Otherwise, some form of partnership with a phone manafacturer so the Voice Box and phone get rolled into one device.....as "simple" as that sounds, I know from talking with my mum for example, that the less boxes etc involved, the more likely customers are to take it up....


----------



## ijudge (13 September 2006)

Hold on boys


the speeding ticket



COMPARE 27th JUNE 2006 (ie price coming down) (OLD)
with 12th SEP 2006 (NEW)

1. Is the company aware of any information concerning it that has not been
announced which, if known, could be an explanation for recent trading in the
securities of the Company?

OLD ANSWER:
The company is not aware of any other information, which could be an
explanation for recent trading in the securities other than current market
conditions.

NEW ANSWEER:
The company has no direct knowledge of what factors may be influencing the recent movements in the trading price of shares in the Company. However, the company's directors wish to advise that the Company has been and is currently in discussions with a number of parties in relation to various transactions including possible capital raising opportunities with various investors, including institutional, strategic or sophisticated investors. The discussions are continuing and no agreement on any particular transaction has been reached. The Company is currently seeking advice on the possible options from its advisors. There is no certainty that any corporate activities will eventuate from these discussions.

2. If the answer is yes can an announcement be made immediately?
OLD ANSWER:
Not applicable.

NEW ANSWER:
At this stage, the Company is unable to make an announcement about any discussions it has engaged in, as outlined in paragraph 1, as they concern possible options that are confidential, incomplete and are insufficiently definite to warrant disclosure.

The Company will continue to keep the market informed in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

3. Is there any reason to think that there may be a change in the operating result before abnormal items and income tax so that the figure for the financial year ended 30 June 2006 would vary from the previous financial year by more than 15%? If so, please provide the details as to the extent of the likely variation.

OLD ANSWER and NEW ANSWER: (exactly word for word)
The Company as at the end of June 2006 is substantially different to the
business accounted for in the financial year ended June 2005. In 2005, the
Company divested of its operating relationship and pending High Court legal
challenge against Vodafone, which resulted in a material settlement and
cessation of business with Vodafone in the financial year ended June 2005.
The half-year results before tax as at December 2005 are expected to reflect
the current operational results of the Company, for the half-year ended June
2006.

4. Is there any reason to think that the Company may record any material
abnormal or extraordinary result for the financial year ended 30 June 2006? If
so, please provide details.

OLD and NEW ANSWER
No

5. Is there any other explanation that the Company may have for the price change in the securities of the Company?

OLD and NEW ANSWER
No


6. Please confirm that The Company is in compliance with the listing rules and, in particular, listing rule 3.1.

OLD ANSWER AND NEW ANSWER: (essentially the same)
The company is in compliance with the listing rules and in particular, listing
rule 3.1.




so what has changed?????

Well the comment about the financial position of the company is the same
ie I would expect a loss of some $5m for the second half of 2005-6

What they are saying is that there are negotiations with potential investors of ENGIN, which we essentially already knew!

What I have noticed, is that the share price seems to be being pushed by a new buying influence that was not present some 1 - 2 weeks ago. I get the gut feeling that there is someone who is acquiring a fair number of this stock. I suspect there will be an annoucement of a new significant shareholder over the next week or two. The way the market is moving, I see that they are prepared to push the price upwards to attain shares rather than wait for supply of natural sellers to come onto the market. When the buyer stops pushing the share price, the market comes down. When they start pushing again off the price goes. This is evidenced by spikes of volume as the price rises and a decrease in price on only very small volume

i feel the stock is moving from weak hands to strong hands (as per Edwards and Mcgee). Today's action was a classic example of shaking out the sellers. Once they are shaken out we will go into free upward movement.


I think we know the financial situation of the company (just about to break even), when this is announced (breakeven) then it will be like petrol on a fire.



ij


----------



## pharaoh (13 September 2006)

good post iijudge
so do you expect the ann today
and, as such, do you expect excited buying today then


----------



## Fab (13 September 2006)

Trading halt. Must be to announce capital raising. I wonder which direction it will take when it re-opens?


----------



## crazyadventures (14 September 2006)

Just a gut feel, but I reckon it's positive news and annual results.

See last trading halt on 19/1 (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060119/pdf/3v3kbphrq1b3y.pdf) followed by good results.

Request for halt is word for word.


----------



## ijudge (14 September 2006)

People


which direction will it head
i would expect upwards
this company does not seem to be able to contain good annoucements or indeed bad announcements, and the stock trades for the week or two prior to the annoucement in the direction that the announcement is favoured


i guess the only question is 

"has the annoucement already been factored into the share price, or will there be further movement?"


tomorrow will tell... or perhaps friday morning


ij


----------



## Mumbank (14 September 2006)

I hope that isn't the significant announcement they referred to!!!!!
At first glance it doesn't look so good - what a week!!!
Surely you don;t have a trading halt at 4:15pm to announce at 8:30am???


----------



## sandik17 (14 September 2006)

Mumbank said:
			
		

> Surely you don;t have a trading halt at 4:15pm to announce at 8:30am???




No there's more to come!

"The Company has been and is currently in discussions with third parties in relation to capital raising opportunities. As at the time of release of this document, the Company is unable to make an announcement about discussions it has engaged in, as they concern possible options that are confidential, incomplete and are insufficiently definite to warrant disclosure."
engin Limited

Possible takeover???


----------



## Mumbank (14 September 2006)

WOW  that's a pretty impressive announcement. Seems like we aren't the only ones that believe in this company!!!


----------



## aobed (14 September 2006)

Mumbank said:
			
		

> WOW  that's a pretty impressive announcement. Seems like we aren't the only ones that believe in this company!!!




I like the concept of providing some of 7's content via VOIP.. that's a great idea


----------



## YChromozome (14 September 2006)

Mumbank said:
			
		

> WOW  that's a pretty impressive announcement. Seems like we aren't the only ones that believe in this company!!!




I'm impressed. Not only will it be promoted on 7, I even see mention of Yahoo 7, a 50/50% Joint Venture between the Seven Network and Yahoo. Yahoo 7 attracts 5.6million consumers every month to its Australian portal  http://www.yahoo7.com 

Those that have been following Reeltime Media (ASX:RMA) will know that there has been an alliance between the two parties to offer movie downloads from Yahoo 7. There has been talk about the alliance offering VoIP in the future and its believed the set top box (which connects to your broadband connection) has a inbuilt ATA (VoIP Analog Telephone Adaptor). Just maybe the provider of those services is becoming clearer.

For those not aware of Reeltime, they hope to start selling a set top box in retail stores / supermarkets in coming months.


----------



## wastedgnome (14 September 2006)

heh, i'm definately happy i held onto my shares! it'll be very interesting to see where this goes for engin...


----------



## sandik17 (14 September 2006)

this is GREAT news....

Interesting times ahead for engin....


----------



## Fab (14 September 2006)

wastedgnome,

I am the same as you I am happy I hold on to my shares I even topped up recently at 0.30. I believed from my experience in Europe that a company like ENG in Australia would ultimately go up in the mid to long term but this announcement is definetely the type of announcement you would expect will put a rocket underneath the share price. Hopefully I am correct.


----------



## crazyadventures (14 September 2006)

crazyadventures said:
			
		

> Just a gut feel, but I reckon it's positive news and annual results.
> 
> See last trading halt on 19/1 (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060119/pdf/3v3kbphrq1b3y.pdf) followed by good results.
> 
> Request for halt is word for word.




Ahh....that warm fuzzy feeling you get when you hold onto something and have confidence that you've picked a winner.....now where do I get that feeling next?

Anyone want to predict where it will open when trading halt is lifted?

Anyone think we'll see exchange traded options introduced?


----------



## sandik17 (14 September 2006)

warm and fuzzy....I'm bursting!:jump:

I couldn't predict opening tomorrow...I think that it will be a bit up and down, but certainly there's going to be good times ahead.   :1luvu:


----------



## Arrow (14 September 2006)

Who loves Engin? Me.
I'm sure glad I hung onto my shares. Sure looks like great news.


----------



## wastedgnome (14 September 2006)

so now that we've got the good news, how long are you guys planning on holding for? given the seven backing, it should give engin an even more solid footing - especially important for the day that telstra will take the plunge into the voip market. i'd assume there'll be a significant increase in advertising on channel 7 as well.

one concern for me is that they're changing the board around, with 3 directors from 7 coming in. i'm not much of a fan of changing a good thing, so hopefully these new guys know their stuff and can bring something to the table.


----------



## crazyadventures (14 September 2006)

The additions to the board I believe are a good thing - there's some great experience coming to the table and remember, 7 have been through some tough times and are now nuding $10 a share.

I think engin has potential to be a $1 - $1.50 stock in future, but need to be reaching breakeven before they do this.

I'm predicting they'll open tomorrow at around 40c and give 48c a nudge again.


----------



## ijudge (14 September 2006)

People


Just a thought to ponder

10,000,000 shares are issued today to the Seven Network at 27.5c (VWAP)

ok that is fine

but according to the wording the next 109m will be issued at 21.5c
this makes the average exactly 22c for the Seven shares

now there will be 109452662 + 239125104 total shares
ie 348 577 766 shares

given the last trade on ENG @30c for 229125104 shares
ie the value of the company before all this was $68.737531m

assuming that the value of the company is the same pre and post issueing of shares then the value is 
$68.737531 + $26.279585m = $95.0171m for 348 577 766 shares
ie
27.25c / share for the new entity

or
ie $68.73751m + $2.75m = 29.89c per share prior to the further 109m shares

i think the placement will provide financial security for the company
which will bolster the share price

in any case
I think the price tomorrow will be 27c at a min
and perhaps a lot more



ij


----------



## mick (15 September 2006)

Looks like it has been recepted well .. 37c open and its not falling too much


----------



## Fab (15 September 2006)

I am actually surprised it did not open above 40c. I see this announcement as a very good news for ENG. I might top up if it stays below 40c


----------



## Duckman#72 (15 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I am actually surprised it did not open above 40c. I see this announcement as a very good news for ENG. I might top up if it stays below 40c




Don't forget - the financials are nothing to write home about. At the moment you are still just buying "potential". 

The Seven deal is great for ENG - but what has actually happened? They've just diluted the share base. Do you really think that the share price would have risen by up to 30% overnight based on an announcement that a company that is not "'acquiring"' any revenue or tangible income. Sure they have a "heavyweight" on board but they still need to start producing some solid results (read $$$$$$$$$$$).

Another way to look at it - ENG has entered into a very expensive advertising deal with Seven.

However I would like to add - I'd rather be on ENG than BRO!!!  

Duckman


----------



## Fab (15 September 2006)

Duckman#72  ,

I think you are making some good points there. I am actually happy that Telstra will get some competition so as I am sick of their monopolistic attitude.
Telephony and media seems to be a very good mix . VOIP has done very well in Europe and the states, Australia behind at the back of the OECD pack with regards to broadband speed and therefore voip intake I don't why ENG won't increase its market share in the near future. It is still a question of bilding a client base at the moment for them and some brand awareness which the Seven deal will greatly help. Hopefully we will see so great $$$ figures coming through their balance sheet in the future. I also like the sound of the change of directors. Looks like a worthy share to back in my opinion.


----------



## Fab (15 September 2006)

I forgot to ask in my last post when are the results due.


----------



## pch (15 September 2006)

"The Chairman of Engin Ltd, Mr Will Jephcott, said: "This proposal is a watershed event for Engin and a landmark change for communications in Australia. This strategic relationship will enable Engin to strengthen its market leading internet telephony business and draws on Seven’s content and digital media experience to create an important broadband gateway that delivers competitive services to all Australians.”

WTF does that mean? Can someone give me a simple explanation on why this is such a watershed event?


----------



## sandik17 (15 September 2006)

Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> However I would like to add - I'd rather be on ENG than BRO!!!
> 
> Duckman




Thank you, that'll do.....for now


----------



## Fab (19 September 2006)

Going down at the moment. Any idea when the results are due ?


----------



## ijudge (19 September 2006)

Fab


results were published last week

on the same day as the SEVEN deal was struck

the financials have shown the profitability of the company has not improved, despite more customers, in fact the profitability has worsened


see the market release

however
the income is grossly up
the staff costs are flat
it is more the marketing costs and disposable costs which have increased

of course if staff costs remain the same
and income grows at the same rate
and there is no significant changes in consumables and marketing
the company is on track for profitability


ij


----------



## Fab (21 September 2006)

Thanks  ijudge ,

SPP keeps on going down. Never mind I believe this is the right way to go for ENG.


----------



## aobed (21 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Thanks  ijudge ,
> 
> SPP keeps on going down. Never mind I believe this is the right way to go for ENG.




Yes I must say that is has been quite disappointing the direction the sp has taken today.. but this is definitely the right direction for the company.  I'll still be holding and hoping


----------



## Arrow (27 September 2006)

Ya can hear a pin drop in here. Six days & no one has a comment whats the go.


----------



## SevenFX (29 September 2006)

Could this be a turning point for 6 down days...?????

Volumes don't look great, but better than the last couple of days...

If it breaks above the 50% in days to follow, it may reach above the last high...BUT hey I'm only new at this...

Any thoughts...from the more exp traders...


----------



## BrownHornet (30 September 2006)

Not to say I told you so, but...
Too many trading on this as a spec stock. And waiting for that break even. When trading specs you need that carrot. I see no carrot now. No carrot.


----------



## roxy (30 September 2006)

Not sure why BrownHornet is being so negative but i would have to say eng is a strong buy at these levels. I dont think it is as speculative now that channel 7 are on board. Technically has just broken out of its base and there is accumulation at these levels. Although it would be good to see higher volumes and was a bit disappointed it didnt finish at its high yesterday.


----------



## Fab (4 October 2006)

Interest appears to be dropping on ENG. Shame as I am quiet positive about it.


----------



## roxy (4 October 2006)

Totally agree with you Fab, ENG has a very very bright future no doubt about it. There is never many posts on stocks when they are consolidating or going down. 

Nice hammer reversal today. ENG will move north very soon, and it will go up very fast.


----------



## SevenFX (4 October 2006)

roxy said:
			
		

> Nice hammer reversal today. ENG will move north very soon, and it will go up very fast.




Hi roxy,

Could you briefly explain hammer reversal, and what timeframe this pattern will have on stock price....

Or reference me to a good link with different patterns...

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## Arrow (5 October 2006)

As I am new to this game could someone explain to me were the 109,452,662 shares @ $0.215 actually come from and what impact this has in the short term to the currant share price. Dos this mean the share price drops to this price when this happens or what? No matter what the answer is I still beleive this company is a great investment and we will be rewarded for hanging in there.


----------



## SevenFX (5 October 2006)

Arrow said:
			
		

> No matter what the answer is I still beleive this company is a great investment and we will be rewarded for hanging in there.




The question is for how long should one hold these, as lost opportunity costs, and if your leveraged on these, well that costs as well.

No doubt shares like these could double & triple over time (weeks, months, years), but so could many others.....and they could also fall below 0.25cents support and make a bad situtation worse...???

I think the lesson here for me is to get out early, and buy back in again when it moving north.


----------



## watsonc (6 October 2006)

There was mention of IP Telephony in the Telstra update.

"It forecast annual revenue growth of 2-2.5 per cent on the back of increased revenues from 3G and IP telephony, which was expected to offset losses from adverse regulatory outcomes."


Will this have any impacts on ENG? What are your thoughts?


----------



## BrownHornet (10 October 2006)

roxy said:
			
		

> Not sure why BrownHornet is being so negative but i would have to say eng is a strong buy at these levels. I dont think it is as speculative now that channel 7 are on board.




Fair enough comment. I do own a reasonable sum of ENG however. So although I sound negative it is not because of VoIP. I think it is an absolute winner. Met a retired guy today who asked me about it which show signs that people want to save on phone calls. 

My negative slant is on ENG maintaining a sizeable market share.
SevenFX said "_No doubt shares like these could double & triple over time (weeks, months, years), but so could many others.....and they could also fall below 0.25cents support and make a bad situtation worse...???"_

I agree. Opportunity cost. Lastly, in a market of so many VoIP providers how has ENG distinguished themselves. Here hoping the Yahoo deal makes them more synonymous with VoIP.


----------



## SevenFX (18 October 2006)

Engin moving Again Up 5.45% 15pts (29c) and vol at 637000.

Seems to have broken that 27.5c resistance.


----------



## SevenFX (18 October 2006)

Nice long awaited run for ENG Up...9% (30cents) at 3.50PM

Will teach me for HOLDING a traded share FALLING and calling it a INVESTMENT....   

Big Mistake.


----------



## Fab (18 October 2006)

Finally moving up.


----------



## SevenFX (18 October 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Finally moving up.




Hey Fab,

Have you been holding waiting for this to turn north 2...????

There was no news, so unsure why it did break today...


----------



## Fab (18 October 2006)

SevenFX,

I have been holding and topping up on this one for a while as I believe they are heading the right way nevertheless I am the same as you no sure why it is heading north today.
I am wondering if there is anything to do with the new media law as Seven is now envolved in ENG


----------



## rawmaterial (18 October 2006)

It sure is nice to see the upward movement of the SP. At first I thought it was because of the Intel & HP deal, but then I realised it was the release yesterday (17th) not today.

It actually did reach 30.5 cent right before close, it must be some last second trade which brough it down back to 29.5 cent.

2,145,997 volume is also one of the highest volume we've seen in awhile.

As Fab suggested the timing does match the new media law. Also wonder if there was other news in the horizon.

Did anyone see some single trades with huge volumes?


----------



## pharaoh (18 October 2006)

Good luck guys
I am a believer since 6c.

I got out regrettably at 23c, how bad is that?

Maybe BPL is coming out. Anyone know about that?
Eurora Energy Tassie and Country Energy QLD

Would be nice...


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## YChromozome (18 October 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Maybe BPL is coming out. Anyone know about that?
> Eurora Energy Tassie and Country Energy QLD




Last I heard a couple of months ago was that Aurora was gearing to launch a commercial service in a month. Can't find the press release now. Must be close if it's not already running.

Further developments from engin's partner TasTel/Aurora is a fibre to the premises trial (http://www.tascolt.com.au/). While I believe both BPL and FTTP is immaterial to engin's SP, the future sure looks interesting. (There is no mention engin would be providing the Voice services for FTTP)

Ground Breaking Ultra Broadband Trial Commences The press release indicates the trial will provide among other things "the capacity for multiple voice lines and services". I guess that means a extra line for each teenage daugther or son too.


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## rawmaterial (19 October 2006)

YChromozome, thanks for the information. IMO there will be a high chance Engin will be providing the voice services for the FTTP. Hope it'll be a successful trial.


pharaoh, 6c to 23c, definately not bad at all. Nice one.

Anyone have a guess of the SP today?


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## SevenFX (19 October 2006)

rawmaterial said:
			
		

> Anyone have a guess of the SP today?




Here my take on the upside....

Notice the double top (think) that perhaps caused the sharp retracement below the 75% mark...

I assuming I can atill use fib even though eng went sideways for some days, but didn't drop below the lowest retracement point....?????

Just my opinion....so happy to hear others take....


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## SevenFX (19 October 2006)

There's gotta be something going on, and ENG up 25pts (8.47%) b4 markets opens....????

Anyone know anything....Looks like another good day 4 Engin...


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## Dukey (20 October 2006)

Wish i knew
Could it be that ENG just looks that little bit better/safer - now that the board have shown they are savvy to important strategic partnerships, and prepared to  get in with the big boys.
Surely these kind of partnerships struck with 7 and HP/intel provide a little insurance value to what is still a somewhat risky stock in the minds of many investors. (esp. post tech wreck).

In the absence of any big news - thats my take anyway !!


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## Fab (20 October 2006)

Sounds like the good way to go to me. I think a lot of people are wondering what direction will ENG take with the new directors. When we know that and break even figures then you might see the stock move much faster


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## YChromozome (20 October 2006)

When the HP deal was announced, I wrote it off as another no news ASX announcement. If they announced a simlar deal with Dell, I might have stood up and listened.

Interesting to see today:

Dell loses PC crown 

_HEWLETT-PACKARD has nudged Dell out as the leading seller of personal computers worldwide for the first time in nearly three years as growth in the overall market slowed, market research surveys showed._

I didn't realise HP had that much of a market share.


----------



## Dukey (20 October 2006)

Me neither - hows HP's presence in Oz?

I'm in Japan - lots of sony; nec; fujitsu here !! - but not so relenent to ENG.


----------



## Fab (20 October 2006)

Actually how is voip doing in Japan ?


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## Dukey (23 October 2006)

Havn't sussed it out in detail - but I know this - internet speeds here are pretty quick on average cause fibre-optic lines are up almost everywhere. I expect almost all new connections will be fibre.
Voip is well and truly here - but I'm not sure about the market, i expect it's growing quickly. We just moved recently - got the net on and voip phone all together - from NTT - the national telecom. BUT get this !!!... 3 small modems + 1 for wireless!! - 1 to recieve the fibre cable; 1 router ; one for voip phone; + the wireless transmitter. Crazy - wish they would consolidate them into fewer boxes!!
I think i recall my partner saying the call prices were half that of a regular line - but monthly rental is the same as before - of course the bills are in Japanese so its abit hard for me to decifer them!!
I'll ask her again and check.

Just found this which would suggest my 'half' factor maybe wrong - or we are geting ripped off!!
(from http://www.voipplanet.com/trends/article.php/3492571)
_The broadband factor
Among the many factors driving Japan's embrace of VoIP, say analysts is the omnipresence of Broadband access. More than a quarter of the Japanese population enjoys high-speed Internet connections. And while the average U.S. broadband link is 3 Mbps, it is not uncommon for Japanese to experience 12Mbps online sessions.
Internet provider Softbank, recently purchased Japan Telecom, through which it is offering VoIP to some 860,000 subscribers.
Another reason for Japan's push into VoIP is the high price of making a circuit-switched telephone call. Using VoIP is up to eight times cheaper than traditional telephony, according to the Yankee Group.
_


----------



## SevenFX (23 October 2006)

ENG is moving along nicely today...


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## Fab (23 October 2006)

Thank Dukey,

I guess ENG is moving up because the annual report has just been released. I have not read it but I believe it must be positive


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## ijudge (25 October 2006)

I have for a long time been favourable about ENGIN, however things are starting to smell a little

these are my observations, so please make your own decision about the stock

i am not saying that the stock market will not do some crazy things to the price, like it did to OneTel, but I am saying the underlying value of the company is not that solid (like OneTel).

A Few Observations

Subscriber Numbers (paying) - taken from releases
-39000 at 30 June 2006
-43000 at 25 July 2006
-46000 at 29 September 2006
this means that in the 66 days from 25th July 2006 til 29th September 2006 there was 3000 lines added (only). ie 45 lines per day, ie 1363 per month!!! This is a very significantly less amount than the 4000 - 5000 per month


** comment - I rang Paul Jeronimo to ask if these figures for the 29th of Sep were correct, he confirmed that they were correct, and explained the problem was a "seasonal" problem, and that with further marketing spend the numbers would pick up again. Note also, that the market release dated 17 October 2006 quotes subscriber numbers as 43000 at the end of July 2006. ie, the company at the time of the release of this statement just used old subscrber number fiugures and not the most recent.... it seems that the company may have thought that the current subscriber numbers may not be flattering.... Note also, the company quotes in the 17 Oct release that the number of minutes per month is currently 15m per month (when the July figure was 13m per month)... ie they quote old subscriber numbers and new minutes per month. Please ring Mr Jeronimo and discuss with him



Performance Targets for 2006

from announcement 29 sep 2006

"Performance related bonuses
• Subscriber base – measured on subscriber numbers
• Reliability of network – measured on network uptime
• Customer service measures – measured on customer surveys and call centre statistics
• Employee satisfaction – measured by staff turnover rates and staff feedback
• Cashflow management to targets
• Successful capital raising
• EBITDA monthly breakeven point by 30 June 2006
• Subscriber base of 30,000 subscriber lines by 30 June 2006" 

Performance Guides for 2007

"The criteria set for the upcoming financial year to 30 June 2007 are summarised as follows:
• EBITDA target
• Subscriber base in excess of 100,000 subscriber lines by 30 June 2007
• Reliability of network – measured on network uptime
• Customer service measures – measured on customer surveys and call centre statistics
• Employee satisfaction – measured by staff turnover rates and staff feedback


** comment - note the performance goal for 2006 for EBITDA breakeven was not achieved, note the EBITDA breakeven is not a goal for 2007 (just EBITDA "target"). I spoke to Mr Jeronimo about this statement. He said that with all the upgrades and future marketing spend that the company will be spending he does not see EBITDA break even this financial year. I asked him when he sees EBITDA breakeven, and he said that would be yet to be seen. I asked about dividends, and he said not for a while yet. We have been promised EBITDA breakeven before the end of the last fin year, then in the first quarter of this financial year, and now next year! I think it is a carrot that is forever out of reach

Financial Results (page 14 annual report)
first 6/12 of fin year loss = $5.1m
second 6/12 of fin year loss = $4.8m
(then there are tax benefits added to these)


** comment - despite increasing subscriber numbers from 5800 to 18000, then 18000 to 39000, there is minimal improvement in the financial results. This is exactly the situation that Vonage in the USA has seen. They now have some 2m subscribers and are still unprofitable. With Vonage, if you exclude the marketing spend, they are still unprofitable. With engin if you exclude the marketing spend the financial loss is $2.2 m less for the year... ie like vonage (even excluding marketing) then they are still unprofitable.


Other VOIP providers
look at MNF - unprofitable
look at Broap - just purchased by MNF
FRE (a wholesaler) - progressively increasing losses
Vonage - as above

** comment - I am not sure that VOIP is a profitable enterprise, well at least world wide it has not been shown to be profitable

Call costs
I use the engin phone, sometimes it is good and other times it is poor quality. I put up with it because to my friends it is free, but is does break up etc. I certainly have reduced the phone bill now down to $17 - $20 per month (of which it is $9.95 per month signup fee). I am paying much less per phone bill, which is good for me. According to the surveys, people are saving on average some 75% on their phone bills. Now broadly speaking, this reduction in costs is coming from margin of the phone company. I think perhaps the call costs are priced too low to be profitable. I note the average subscriber income is $30 per line, I note Vonage USA average income is $27US (ie $36 australian).

** comment - I am not sure that this level of cost of phone call is ever profitable



total of directors remuneration = $1,691,969 for 2006, plus now a request from the directors to approve an increase of director remuneration by $250,000 for next year (for the non exec directors) and who knows what for the executive directors

**** comment - seems a little much for a company that is still making a loss of $10m per year. Although the comany is making a loss, the directors are being paid very well indeed

directors options ... issue of some 6m options, the exercise price of these options are 0c, and there is facility present for a retiring director to claim these options early (read the current report). Note, also the quoted number of securities held my Mr Tales on page 75 of the annual report was 3.585901m, as per the share register 20 sep 2006 it was 1.5m. I am not sure if he owns shares in various names etc and hence things do not appear on the share registry but it would appear as though he has sold some 2m shares between 30/6 and 20/9. I thought that changes in directors holdings had to be notified so I am not sure if this is true.

**** comment - what kind of performance target is an option price of 0c, it does not encourage anything

Value of Seven Association

**** comment - personally I can not see exactly why there is so much value in the association with the seven network. The release called at a "watershed" and a "landmark change". Why? I do believe that engin has arranged to spend some $2.75m with seven in advertising per year (I think this was the figure from a report). I guess for $26m, seven has secured a 10.5% return of increased advertising for their $26m (ie $2.75m/$26m), but they have put their $26m at risk. I think the value of the seven association lies in the fact that $26m gives financial security for Engin for at least the next 2 yrs without the need to further capital raise

Value of Shares
the price peaked at about 50c a few months ago... for 230m shares ie value of the company was $115m. I think we would all agree that this was over valued! If nothing had changed then $26m more capital and 119m more shares ie value per share is $141/349 = 40c per share. Which, as above we would all agree is over priced.
For a different share price (see below)
share price post dilution price
50c 40.4c (as above)
40c 33.8c
30c 27.2c
24c 23.2c (the price was closest to here)
22c 22c (as expected because of neutral dilution)


Earnings model of expected share Value

the company is making losses so we can not predict
but consider to have a return of 1c per share in profit, this half year was $4.8m loss, ie at $30 per sub line, just to make the EBITDA neutral, the company needs a further 26666 subscribers ($4.8m / 30 / 6). To make 1c per share ie $3.49m (per six months) they need another 19388 subscribers, ie they need another 46000 subscribers . This calculation assumes no increased costs of managing the new subscribers and no cost of acquiring new subscribers. Add this to the average of 28500 lines for the 6 months of this calender year would make 74500 lines to make 1 c profit for the 6 months (ie 2 c per year). On a PE of 20 (very generous) this makes, 40c per share, more realistic PE would be 15, ie 30 c per share. This is an ideal situation, where there is no acquisition costs and no ongoing management costs. The company quotes marketing costs of $85 per new subscriber, hence to get those further 46000 new subs would cost $3.91m (some 11000 subs for that financial year), plus costs associated with managing the subscribers, plus management costs plus plus plus

One thing that took me a long time to grasp, was that the more subscribers DOES NOT MEAN more profit, as is demonstrated this financial year reports.

Reason behind money raising!
I think the company was running very short of cash, and they had to raise equity soon. This is why the company made such a deal with Seven. This is contrary to prior releases that the company expects to have enough case to progress to breakeven.



In any case.....

make up your own mind!!!

I do not think the underlying company is worth much, but make your own decision, perhaps 15-20c as a speculative buy
why don't you call Paul Jeronimo and discuss this posting with him (((Paul Jeronimo (Company Secretary) on 02 9004 4178))). 

I think perhaps the company directors should be asked to make a statement about whether the company will ever be profitable (in their opinion) and quote figures to back up their assessment. They should at least be asked to give clear estimates  as to how many subscribers would be necessary to make breakeven! This should be requested and provided prior to the arrangement with the Seven Network going ahead.


ij

ps: for the record, I have never been an employee of engin in any way, I do have an engin phone (and like it) and I was a shareholder of Eng until recently.


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## trader (25 October 2006)

Very informative report, I think one of the reasons that more subscribers doesn't
mean more profit is that we don't know how many they are losing
each month. Their marketing expenditure has to forever increase just to
grow their subscriber base because they are losing to many people.
(They never seem to mention these figures in their report)
For any business to grow not only do you have to get new customers but
you have to keep your old ones.
Unwired is exactly the same, they are spending heaps on marketing yet
their customer base only grows a little, sooner or later the rate that they are
losing their subscribers by becomes too high and the company goes under.


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## wastedgnome (25 October 2006)

assuming that were the case, why would seven be buying into them? they would have had full disclosure of what was going on, and i can't see them making such a massive blunder..


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## trader (25 October 2006)

wastedgnome said:
			
		

> assuming that were the case, why would seven be buying into them? they would have had full disclosure of what was going on, and i can't see them making such a massive blunder..




Good point, but then again Seven only paid an average of 22 cents a share
and maybe they didn"t want anybody else to have them or it is just a bad
investment, even the big boys make mistakes.


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## dj_420 (25 October 2006)

why would anyone buy into anything?

why did google buy out YouTube a small video sharing company that was running operating costs of between 900 000 and 1.5 million per month. BECAUSE they saw something that they didnt want another company to pick up. it didnt matter that they had never turned a profit in the past or foreseeable future without plastering advertising all over the site.

maybe seven has seen ENG as emerging leader in the field and wanted a piece of the pie before someone else got some. has ENG even broke even yet? i got into this company at start of the year at 17 cents sold out at 42 cents. after i got out sp has taken a beating and is still very low of its yearly highs. 

i think at the beginning of the year everyone thought this would be the great new technology and then mid year everyone realised it was very hard to become profitable in an overcrowded industry whilst running very small margins. i would like to see a subscriber base of 200 000 plus before getting back into this one.

IMO people started to convert and didnt like it and are now leaving the company in droves, thats the big question how many people are they losing each month??


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## YChromozome (25 October 2006)

ijudge said:
			
		

> -46000 at 29 September 2006
> this means that in the 66 days from 25th July 2006 til 29th September 2006 there was 3000 lines added (only). ie 45 lines per day, ie 1363 per month!!! This is a very significantly less amount than the 4000 - 5000 per month
> 
> ** comment - I rang Paul Jeronimo to ask if these figures for the 29th of Sep were correct, he confirmed that they were correct, and explained the problem was a "seasonal" problem, and that with further marketing spend the numbers would pick up again.




Excellent post ijudge.

My spin on this is that I'm not all that surprised with the subscriber numbers.

As a customer, and frequent observer on Whirlpool, an Australia Broadband/VoIP forum where customers can let of steam, you will know Engin went though a patchy period a couple of months ago (late July +) in terms of voice quality. At one stage I was logging latency of my ATA (phone) registering with engin's servers. For a couple of weeks, routine as clockwork come 8:30am (Adelaide time) latency would increase and would resume early night, a simple and crude reflection of load.   

I would of expected customer churn at that time to be high, hence offsetting the subscriber growth. I had also read that Engin had toned down advertising during this period, which may have slowed sign ups.

My take on all of this is engin was having trouble keeping up with growth rates. It's one thing to sign up customers, but it might not be apparent but you need to keep network capacity abreast of this. With subscriber line growth rates last year of 573% this is not an easy task. Not only must you continuely add extra servers, networks etc, this infrastructure also costs money which also adds to the break even time and need for capital raising. With IT, infrastructure is often not seen or thought off. However imagine if you were a car manufacturer and you had growth of 573% in one year. That's a lot of factory, equipment, machines you must build and install to keep abreast. Do you expect to pay this off in the first year? Do you expect to design, build it and get this plant on-line immediately?

So the question is should engin close their doors to new customers, so they don't need to continuously install new equipment and have a chance to break even in line with forecasts? Or do you try to take most from this growth industry and continuously expand while demand for the service exists? The larger you get, the cheaper you can buy wholesale minutes, the less support staff you need per subscriber etc etc. Costs should come down.

Engin announced earlier in the year, it would fund raise for more capital to expand their network. I think they were talking about something like 250,000 subscriber lines. They are running about 50,000 in round figures now.

Now the capital has been raised, and hopefully extra infrastructure has been installed, engin with the Seven Network and Yahoo7 partners is in a wonderful position to start opening up the floodgates again with marketing and without the risk they might oversubscribe the network and provide an inferior service.

As an engin subscriber, I know the last two months voice quality has been excellent. It would appear engin is over these dramas or 'seasonal' problems. .  At this moment I'm not all that worried. I'm looking to the future.


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## watsonc (25 October 2006)

I have a friend whose workplace - a large building supply store - has installed and uses Engin. He is on the phone all day at work, selling stuff to builders, etc, and he says that the service runs - quote - 'perfectly!' and he has no complaints.


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## ijudge (31 October 2006)

People

Realistically the Engin service is fairly good quality, but not as good as a normal phone.... it does drop out occasionally, it does get broken voice at times


but


you put up with this because the phone calls are cheap (well at least long distance is cheap)

the discussion here is not really about the call quality, the discussion is about if the company will ever make a profit?????


Why do people invest in things? --- because they think it will be worth more down the track...... The big boys do make mistakes (Alan Bond $1.2b for Nine Network for example)

When I first looked at this company, I thought it was great, and would make a fortune, but it just has not done that!!!!! It does not look like making any money any time soon (if at all)


Just consider, av subscriber income is $30 per line
Av cost to manage line = $16
ie $14 profit per line per month
(this excludes marketing costs, and other costs etc)

from here in order to increase the income by $5m per 6 months (to reach breakeven), there needs to be another 59000 subscribers (ie 110,000 total) (calculation = $5m/14/6). With 110,000 subscribers there would be more costs to manage


any how,

make your own decision about the company

I have!


ij


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## pete152 (31 October 2006)

Thanks for that information. What do you think about Ch.7 getting on board for app$26 million?
I am just curious, not trying to cause trouble,as I do not own any shares in this company.
Thanks,
Peter


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## ijudge (1 November 2006)

wrt to SEVEN

good and bad


BAD

their buy in price was below market value
with ch 7 owning 33%, the company is now not a take over target
there is an arrangement to purchase $2.75m of advertising from 7
i can not see that an association is really worth that much
extra cost of management team....


GOOD
the company will get $26m to use, and hence will not be bankrupt for at least 2 years
purely cash will give bottom line a boost by $2m (from interest alone)




ij


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## marklar (2 November 2006)

I was kinda hopeful for this company, it will be interesting to see if marketing from Seven is all they need.

m.


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## Fab (2 November 2006)

I am happy to be patient on this one.


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## sandik17 (5 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I am happy to be patient on this one.




Me too!


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## thecountof (16 November 2006)

I dont see too much future in this one if a partnership with Channel 7 cannot boost the price. FRE has gone up a lot in the same time frame based on the future of deals they are negotiating.

The rumours about the guy(s) who run the place is arrogance - this pays off with some people but others just dont like it.


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## ijudge (18 November 2006)

director selling 2m of his indirectly held shares (via Haley BV)

if this company is really going to be the NEXT BIG THING

why would you sell it???????



see the announcements



ij


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## Fab (18 November 2006)

Give the new directors the time to implement their new strategy and let's see how it goes in the next 6 months.


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## YChromozome (18 November 2006)

ijudge said:
			
		

> if this company is really going to be the NEXT BIG THING
> 
> why would you sell it???????




Risk Management, Diversification. You have to shake you head at some of these directors. They hold most of their wealth in a few companies. I don't see anything wrong with selling. I'm still very bullish on this stock, but will admit I sold down some of my holdings a couple of weeks ago. Not so much because of engin but just incase the markets go sour . . I'm reducing my explosure to the market. And engin is not the only company I have sold down recently.


On an additional note, it appears Wild IT has joined the long list of engin resellers. Timothy Bolot, Managing Director of Wild was saying only tomorning they are signing up 634 subscribers a week to VoIP. This supprised me for what I though was a smallish ISP.


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## Fab (26 November 2006)

It appears that ENG is starting to advertise on 7 network as I just sought a prime time ad. Should boost the number of customers


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## sandik17 (26 November 2006)

I certainly hope so.  I'm starting to get a little disheartened with eng.  
I still hold.  Thought the SEV deal would boost them more than it did.  

Also can't understand FRE doing so much better than them??  Time will tell I guess.  I still think they're worth holding.


----------



## ijudge (27 November 2006)

Just a quick note


cash at end of financial year = $2.976m
cash raised from seven network = $26.282m
net = $29.258 (ie end of year plus seven network)


Recent Announcement current cash at 20 Nov 2006 = $25m

this means in the 4 months 20 days LOSS = $4.258m


covert this to 6 months = $5.4m LOSS for this 6 months

really pretty much the same as previously

MORE SUBSCRIBERS DOES NOT MEAN MORE PROFIT



think carefully about this one


ij


----------



## Fab (27 November 2006)

ijudge said:
			
		

> Just a quick note
> 
> 
> cash at end of financial year = $2.976m
> ...




Thanks Iijudges,

Did you do by any chances the same comparaison on FRE ? As I am expecting them to be in a similar type of situation but their sp keeps rising


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## crazyadventures (21 December 2006)

*Ad campaign ramping up?*

Hey all - I notice today that when running Microsoft's Windows Live Messenger that a ad appeared down the bottom for Engin.

Asides from the TV campaign, has anyone else noticed new ads popping up?


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## YChromozome (21 December 2006)

*Re: Ad campaign ramping up?*



			
				crazyadventures said:
			
		

> Asides from the TV campaign, has anyone else noticed new ads popping up?




Certainly have. 20 cent calls to twenty countries. enginious!

Actually the Advertising is full on at the moment. I'm seeing it from a variety of sources.


----------



## crazyadventures (22 December 2006)

*Engin ad's - when will we see next subscriber numbers*

"All I want for Christmas is my Engin subscriber numbers!"
"All I want for Christmas is my ...."

Anyone know when we can expect to see news on how things are going and where the $24M from Seven is being spent?


----------



## watsonc (7 January 2007)

Noticed an Engin advertisement on aussiestockforums homepage. lol


----------



## pete152 (7 January 2007)

Yes that is very good lol
Peter


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## Uncle Festivus (22 January 2007)

Sydney, Australia – 22 January 2006: Engin, Australia’s leading Internet Telephony company and Nokia, Australia’s most popular mobile phone brand today announced a breakthrough for consumers seeking low cost mobile phone bills. Through a collaboration between the two organisations, Engin customers will now be able to make cheap Internet phone calls using the first Mobile Internet Phone to be released in Australia, the Nokia N80 Internet Edition.

Is Telstra concerned?


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## Dukey (22 January 2007)

Quote Uncle F : _"Is Telstra concerned?"

_Well - they oughta be!! Though with TLS it appears that it's almost impossible to change a company the size of a small nation. My friend who is a mid-level manager still swears that voip is insignificant to TLS. >>> heads in the sand are the norm there I think. Glad I don't own any 

Unfortunately I already had a sell order in for $0.27 for the remaining half of my ENG shares. If I had seen this news coming I might have waited longer - but thems the breaks!!

Can't be unhappy though as any profit is good profit, and managed to sell the first half at a glorious $0.49 last year.

I'm still sure ENG has a bright future but it may take a while to come to fruition. No doubt - this mobile deal and recent advertising will help. I will look at re-entering after the VOIP industry has been shaken out a bit.


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## sandik17 (22 January 2007)

It's certainly good news for engin shareholders.  They have some powerful friends engin....ie nokia, seven, Intel, HP and many sales outlets Big W, Dick Smith etc.  
We really haven't seen what Seven have in store yet either....
Could be an interesting few months, one things for sure they're never sitting on their butts at eng...they're always coming up with some new partnership, or some new technology.  Well...they are the Australian VOIP leaders!
Ahhh....


----------



## crazyadventures (22 January 2007)

Still hanging on for that day we see such news translated into a profitable company.

I hope this isn't too far off - we can only hang on for so long on.

Please don't get me wrong - the news is great - just not the news I'm holding for!

So far, there's been little IMHO that translates from "prospect" to "long term profitibality".

It is this and declaration of a dividend that I think will see Engin's SP take it's next big step.


----------



## Fab (24 January 2007)

sandik17 said:
			
		

> It's certainly good news for engin shareholders.  They have some powerful friends engin....ie nokia, seven, Intel, HP and many sales outlets Big W, Dick Smith etc.
> We really haven't seen what Seven have in store yet either....
> Could be an interesting few months, one things for sure they're never sitting on their butts at eng...they're always coming up with some new partnership, or some new technology.  Well...they are the Australian VOIP leaders!
> Ahhh....





I agree with this comment but the big question is how will all these partnership translate into some big money and that is what's holding ENG share price in my opinion


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## Fab (6 February 2007)

In the meantime ENG keeps on following. We need a very good announcement to reverse the trend


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## Fab (16 February 2007)

When is ENG due to report? I waiting for the half year result to make a decision on selling this stock.


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## rawmaterial (28 February 2007)

Report out today, revenue up 173% but still making a loss.
What do others think?


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## Fab (28 February 2007)

I think Engin is positioning itself as a major player in voip. If you look @ what is happening in Europe and the US where voip are strongly part of the telephony landscape I think engin is building its customer base and a loss @ this stage is not a surprise.
I am expecting that ENG sp will go up from now on. 173% increase in revenue is to me a pretty good result.


----------



## Fab (4 April 2007)

Does anyone knows anything about what is going on with ENG? It keeps on going down no volume at all. I thought they were doing well there revenue went up over 170% but the share price keeps on sliding down further.


----------



## YChromozome (5 April 2007)

Fab said:


> Does anyone knows anything about what is going on with ENG? It keeps on going down no volume at all. I thought they were doing well there revenue went up over 170% but the share price keeps on sliding down further.




They appear to have been a little more quiet on the media releases/sub numbers since the injection of capital Seven Digital Media and I suspect this has taken some of the shine of them.

As for what they are doing, Illka Tales was talking at a sharecafe.com.au conference last week.

The current business plan, as it has been since day 1, is to accelerate growth. They are now happy with their business model and consider "VoIP is proven and it's now time to ramp it up". One of the graphs was the same than was presented to share holders earlier this year showing a 50% uplift in sales late Jan/early Feb. 

On the 1st of March they brought on two new plans - engin national and engin world. engin national offer unlimited local and national calls for $14.95/month. engin world offer 20 cent untimed calls into 20 different countries - thats untimed international calls for cheaper than ringing your neighbor on Telstra. To cater for these plans and growth in subs, about three weeks ago they put on another 24 call center staff. They indicate the "growth trajectory increasing and expected to steepen"

Another interesting development, although it's unclear if it would have any effect on the SP, is that they have completed technical trials of peering into the Yahoo7 messenger platform (thanks to Channel 7's Yahoo7 partnership) and are now in commercial negotiations. This would allow engin customers to contact some estimated 200 million Yahoo messenger subscribers from their phone. It could be some innovation which sets engin apart from their competitors.


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## BrownHornet (22 April 2007)

Copped a bit of a hammering on here last time I was negative on this stock. Well on Fri I cashed out at 21c. I held in for some time and then realised the classic investor mistake of hanging in until it was back near purchased price. Very happy I'm out at a very small loss.

The opportunity cost of holding this has proven a joke. While my portfolio has gone up 40% in 6 months this has not moved in over a year. Time for an out...

Now to the voip market.
Have recently been provided some information in regards to this market. Take it as truth if you will however this was passed to my by the CEO of a reasonably large ISP yes in Aust whose kids go to a school I deal with.
1. Voip is a big loss leader for them. Basically any call that goes over 1.5mins is loosing money for their ISP. They rely on shorter call to make money on Voip. Or rather that they provide it in hope customers will package it with other ISP services.

As others have said. More customers for Engin does not mean more profits. Good company quickly loosing its lead of first(ish...) to market.

The market is getting flooded with voip providers and Engin have no clear cut  strategy (not that will effect the SP anyway). I use Engin but find it difficult to recommend them to others given that the service is virtually the same as others and QoS is still reliant on your ISP regardless. Predicting a slow but steady move backwards


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## bbloff (24 May 2007)

BrownHornet said:


> Copped a bit of a hammering on here last time I was negative on this stock. Well on Fri I cashed out at 21c. I held in for some time and then realised the classic investor mistake of hanging in until it was back near purchased price. Very happy I'm out at a very small loss.
> 
> The opportunity cost of holding this has proven a joke. While my portfolio has gone up 40% in 6 months this has not moved in over a year. Time for an out...
> 
> ...




Sure VOIP may cause an ISP to suffer, but this wouldn't affect ENG in the same way as they don't have to provide the connection.  Just like as a customer increases bandwidth usage the ISP stands to make less money (relatively speaking).  Maybe there are hidden costs associated with connecting a call, but I would be surprised to hear that there was any negative financial impact when a customer placed a call for an extended period.  That being said, this stock is a total dog at the moment, just wish there was a more transparent cause (not sure how to read it atm).


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## Riles (28 May 2007)

ENG just got a ticket for speeding - in reverse!

ASX - " Is there any reason why your share price is going down the gurgler?"
ENG - "Not any reason that we're aware of..."

My small position gets smaller every day - waiting for a bounce to get out but there's been no bounces.

I'll do you all a favour and sell - that'll make the SP turn around!


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## Fab (28 May 2007)

Riles said:


> ENG just got a ticket for speeding - in reverse!
> 
> ASX - " Is there any reason why your share price is going down the gurgler?"
> ENG - "Not any reason that we're aware of..."
> ...




I got sick of this one and sold after losing half my money at 0.195. ENG and SEN are the only 2 stocks in my portfolios that have very badly performed in the last year. I believe there will be a bounce for both of them but why wait for them when you've got resources stocks going up and up and up.


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## dj_420 (28 May 2007)

lol, this one was one of first stocks i bought

i was on at 17 cents and out at 40, i think VOIP companies had a huge amount of interest before everyone realise profit margins were virtually non-existant and companies have to sign on a massive amount of customers before breaking even.

havent been following for a long time not sure if engin have even reached break even point yet.

but i agree fab, much more money elsewhere, go where the trend is!


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## Arrow (30 May 2007)

Just got this email thru, looks good.

Attached is an announcement on a new product initiative in conjunction with TiVo and Channel 7.  Engin will be an exclusive distributor of the TiVo box.



> Seven and TiVo Inc Sign Strategic Partnership to Distribute TiVo Products and
> Services in Australia and New Zealand
> 
> TiVo to be key platform in Australia’s development of digital television and interactive communications
> ...


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## Arrow (14 June 2007)

Their is more news, check out the latest ENGIN news on the ASX. You certainly cant say that the management at Engin sit back and do nothing, they are always coming up with a new deal to broaden the services and the lastest news looks great.


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## bernardp (14 June 2007)

The price of Engin since their recent ann's has bounced back up from around 13-14c to close at 19.5c yesterday. Investor confidence seems to be back with this stock once engin replied to an asx query about the price drop, stating no reason for the drop that it could see.

Interesting to see how it plays out.


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## thomas@tac.com.a (12 November 2007)

NOT written about since JUNE 2007 now NOV 2007 with annual report out today saying all's well and selling 19+% of unwired along with Channel 7 to prop them up seems to true to BELIVE..


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## iimamit (3 February 2008)

I have been following the VOIP industry. Engin's competitor MyNetFone, though a smaller company seems to have done better with positive cashflow achieved in the previous quarter. 

I believe, Engin is presently out of focus and it would take atleast a couple of years before the full effects of convergence of Tivo, Broadband and VOIP would reflect on the Profit and Loss statement of the company.


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## Rainmaker2000 (3 February 2008)

Pardon the ignorance...but what is MyNetPhones stock name or code..I'm a customer and would not mind checking out its prospects..thanks


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## iimamit (3 February 2008)

Hi Rainmaker,

Thanks for your reply.

Stock Code MNF

I have posted a new thread on the forum (linke name MNF: Mynetfone) with some more details and a link to a research report. Kindly reply on that to take the discussion forward. 

website www.mynetfone.com.au

Regards
iimamit.


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## MR ENGIN (16 January 2011)

*ENG - Engin Limited - Proposal by SEVEN*

I Just found this on hotcop - and want to share: 

If you don't want 70c (or 1.4c prior to Oct 2009) please vote against the proposal.

Contact enginfairdeal@hotmail.com to get your vote counted and stay connected with other like minded Minority Shareholders

Go to the Meeting on Jan 31st so these jokers know their actions are not going unnoticed.


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## grax (17 January 2017)

Wondering if anyone would be able to tell me what happened to this, I had shares but after checking my CommSec account today after so many years they have disappeared. Apparently comments on another website suggest cheques were sent out but I never received anything


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