# AMP - AMP Limited



## sam21poddy (7 August 2004)

AMP is trading higher today (up 2.5%) from a trading range of 5.20/5.35 up to 5.69.  I can't see any news items on AMP.  Why is it suddenly going up against the backdrop of a falling market?  Does anyone know.  Of course I sold my AMP yesterday for a miniscule profit after holding onto it for months waiting for it to rise so I missed out on making a decent profit by one day.


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## stefan (7 August 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*



> Of course I sold my AMP yesterday




Which then perfectly explains why AMP is going up.  ;D

My next post will be more serious, I promise... 

Happy trading

Stefan


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## profithunter (7 August 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

I think it might be on the back the AXA takeover talk. but thats just my opinion.


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## stefan (8 August 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Market is expecting AMP to release a better than expected result this week. That has probably pushed up the price. 

Happy trading

Stefan


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## Bingo (16 September 2004)

I am going to stick my neck out and suggest AMP is in for a correction to around $5.70. I have sold.

Bingo


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## positivecashflow (16 September 2004)

*Re: AMP Is it a sell?*

In what time frame are you seeing that drop?


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## Bingo (16 September 2004)

*Re: AMP Is it a sell?*

In the short term. I think they may hold up until they ex 13c div on 27 Sept, but will then fall quickly.

Mind you I have been wrong many times before. This is not advice but my opinion based on charts.

Bingo


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## still_in_school (16 September 2004)

*Re: AMP Is it a sell?*

Hi Bingo,

the other day i bought into AMP, when it broke out technically out at $6.36, as the stock hit $6.45 it retracted back with out the heavy volume, seriously i honestly think AMP has fundamental problems, with the publics perception.. i end up selling back at $6.40 yesterday morning when the market opened, but i dont think AMP will be going anywhere north yet for quite some time...

Cheers,
sis


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## Bingo (17 September 2004)

*Re: AMP Is it a sell?*

still-in-school,

I think you did well to get $6.40. Mind you even though I have sold I will look to get back in at around $5.70, but this will depend on my view at that time.

As far as share trading is concerned I think I will be in-school for around another 100 years. Good name.


Bingo


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## still_in_school (11 October 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Guys,

AMP has had some bullish rallies over the last couple days...

On the T/A IMHO, AMP looks like it will rally up and against the $6.70 mark, and will take off again, currently i do belive this stock has some good fundamentals and people are begining to realise...

Current position, Stock Holding + 70% Margin Lend and AMP59 DEC $6.08 Calls, with a break above $6.50, and above $6.70, AMP, will could be confirming a very bullish medium term.. with a low risk...

T/A AMP is looking very bullish... looks like AMP is going back to better days...

Cheers,
sis


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## still_in_school (17 October 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Guys,

AMP, really wants to break that resistance, and with the current market, AMP is looking very bullish, with a break above $6.50, $6.70... a nice medium term showing a target of $7.00 is likely.  Looks like anytime this week, this breakout will occur.

Cheers,
sis


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## still_in_school (3 November 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

AMP at $6.50 now..., though can it close above $6.50 today...?

Cheers,
sis


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## still_in_school (4 November 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Guys,

Happy Trading to those who bought Calls and shares on AMP....

(though i do believe there is going to be more upside for AMP, shortly.. talk of a take over shortly for AMP)

Cheers, 
sis


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## stefan (4 November 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

There's this rumour that ANZ will put in a bid for AMP. So that's why it's going up. Sounds all very familiar with the NAB deal which eventually went nowhere but did drive the price up quite a bit.

Happy trading

Stefan

(Not holding AMP)


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## still_in_school (15 November 2004)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Guys,

quick update on AMP T/A... next target region of $8.20.

Currently last trade at $7.09, have bought back in again, though currently just holding stock...

Cheers,
sis


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## RichKid (4 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

AMP has just come on my radar screen (I know, I know, where have I been while all the action has been taking place...).
Well since it's about to test $8 there should be some activity.

SIS, are you still holding? Any views? I think it may fall off a bit and then have another run at $8. Looks like a good stock for 2005.


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## RichKid (9 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Well, the absence of an interest in a bid for HHG has seen AMP down a bit, let's see how far this goes before it resumes the uptrend.


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## still_in_school (9 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Richkid,

sorry currently not holding any AMP stock or options...

though am looking for a technical entry to go back long and see another retest of the $8.00 mark.. though, with stocks in the financial sector and banks, still with holding previous and new highs.. AMP is starting to near an oversold area for me..

AMP has a 50% retracement of $7.49 - $7.52, i have no specific entries as of yet.. but i do see a retest of the $8.00 mark again.. 

though AMP nearest support is at $7.25, if the retracement level fails.. AMP could fall as far as this support (technically i doubt this)

Also using some ganns method for retracement.  (dow retracement)

$8.00 peak minus $7.03 = .93 cents

Halve .93 cents = .465 cents

$7.03 +  0.465 = $7.49

Technically IHMO, i would wait for a pullback of $7.49 - $7.52 before going long..

Other fundamental issues are.. AMP goes ex-dividend next month.. so another fundamental reason for AMP to appreciat and push up north again... 

Cheers, 
sis


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## still_in_school (9 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Also forgot to mention, on the above chart, the blue line is the Trend line AMP is dancing along.. if you look closesly you will also notice that the trendline comes round in at about $7.49, with confirmation from fibonacci retracement, gann's retracement and the AMP trend line,

* $7.49 is a key and technical entry position... (still based on technical and positive momentum..)

Cheers,
sis


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## RichKid (9 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi sis,
Good to hear from you, I omitted Gann analysis in my take on AMP but came up with similar levels to you (maybe a couple of cents difference here and there). My main concern is the current uptrend support (blue line on your chart), if it falls through that the next level is about 7.25 for horizontal support, if it goes through 7.25 then the next long term trend line is much lower (below $7 atm).

All in all, I reckon this one'll either keep chipping away at $8 starting tomorrow or may just drop back closer to 7.50 for a bit to test the recent trend support. Uptrend and imminent $8 resistance breakout and near div time are what made me look at AMP (also the positive market sentiment towards insurers, just a short term play for me atm). 

Still waiting for that entry, a quick dip to 7.56 today before recovering (moderate volume), let's see how it goes...


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## still_in_school (15 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Richkid,

AMP technicals are looking very good at the moment, current stock price is $7.58 - $7.59

Still waiting and ready to pounce on the entry position. ($7.49 - $7.52)

** but, lol.. though im waiting here to pull the triger..

Cheers,
sis

ps.. entry could possibily be today or tomorrow, though.. still sitting and waiting patiently..


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## still_in_school (15 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Oh look at the devil, AMP coming down very nicely $7.52 - $7.53

Cheers,
sis


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## still_in_school (15 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Guys,

Very Strong uptrend line for AMP.. (currently long with April $7.50 Calls)

So far AMP came to a low of $7.51 for today, though market depth is showing a very strong support at retracement, and at trend support level of $7.50

Currently 102 Buyers at $7.50 wishing to purchase in total 204,975 units.

Cheers,
sis


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## RichKid (15 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi sis,
Yep, I've been watching that trend line too, the nervy market is timing it just right for before the profit annct on Thursday. I reckon it'll sit around the range of the last week or so and then react very strongly to the annct, all depends on if it's above expectations, market is certainly expecting very good news or it'll be disapointed.

Technically 7.50 was an ideal point to buy, I'd have my stops close though.


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## RichKid (15 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Forgot to mention: notice that the candles were rejecting higher prices, with the last candle it is now rejecting lower prices, especially as prices near trend support. Still need an up day and some decent volume as well if possible.


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## still_in_school (15 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Richkid,

was just having a look at the long term charts of AMP, i do believe AMP will channel between $7.50 - $8.00, possibly for a short period of time, and possibly could be for the another 2 months.. 

in the chart below, sorry its unclear.. 

the chart has been subdivided into 3 month cycles (purple vertical lines)

there are fibonacci retracement lines, though there not clear on the chart.. 

AMP long 50% fibonacci retracement, is around the $4.00 mark.. though the consolidation on average is about 3 months.

just on some technical guessing, and not knowing how AMP will technically trade for the next few months, and $8.00 being the retracement, (and $4.00 being the 50% retracement) IMHO, $7.50 - $8.00 will most likely be the trading channel.. till we might see a break above this channel.

at the moment its all technical guessing, but also AMP today, created a new level of support at $7.55, it might be a long guess out.. but AMP does look due for a breather (consolidation)

Cheers,
sis

ps.. please only take my notes, as a suggestion, and that this is only a technical guess, and my technical analysis can and could be wrong..


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## Bingo (16 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Usually when a stock is sold off like AMP has been over the last two days, with results being announced tomorrow, its smart money and you can bet the results will be lower than the market expects.

I am keen to see if AMP is as bad on leaks as the rest. If the results are a disappointment tomorrow then we can put AMP in the basket of insider trading companies.

Bingo


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## RichKid (16 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*



			
				Bingo said:
			
		

> Usually when a stock is sold off like AMP has been over the last two days, with results being announced tomorrow, its smart money and you can bet the results will be lower than the market expects.
> 
> I am keen to see if AMP is as bad on leaks as the rest. If the results are a disappointment tomorrow then we can put AMP in the basket of insider trading companies.
> 
> Bingo




Bingo, that's a very good reminder about how a price chart, according to TA theory, shows all that we need to know about a co. ie price discounts all. I often see Edwards&Magee refere to the price effect of insider trading, and that was over 50 years ago! Still continuing, but I wouldn't think it that common in bluechips today (eg CBA and TLS surprised), see it often in smaller co's.

My sentiments are the same as yours except with one proviso. Since there has been a lot of talk about AMP's strength (eg. special divs and share buy backs, debt repayments etc) maybe the insiders have decided the market may not react well to the news. ie news will be good but has been factored in, hence any annct tomorrow will have to be very good news (ie above expectations, a surprise). I saw a comment that AMP's profits are hard to value accurately due to the nature of its investment activities. I'll be watching closely, anyone know what time the annct is at?

Long term I am more or less with sis about a long term up trend interspersed with consolidation phases. Not sure if 7.50 will be support, I think a lot depends on tomorrow and whether the recent uptrend is going to be broken solidly or if it'll just hang around, $7.35 may be the more likely lower boundary if it starts to range judging by horizontal support. $8 is a very significant level imho, just look at the chart, that's where the rot really took hold. I would expect it to hang around near $8 once it breaks that resistance level but we'll have to reassess closer to that event. Was a bit surprised to see it fall so far today, good news is it rejected the low and closed a bit higher.


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## RichKid (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

An article from Bloomberg on AMP's expected profit, a bit conservative compared to the usual local press articles: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=ajYu66SzWJm4&refer=australia

Wonder what time they'll announce it today?


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## Bingo (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

It's out and looks OK. Will now have a good read.

Bingo


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## Bingo (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Result is higher than expected at $934M, dividend at 14c is in line with expectations and capital return at 40c slightly lower than expected. The big plus is they have flagged another capital return for 2006.

Should push the price up.

Bingo


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## RichKid (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Hi Bingo,
Yes, appears to be above high end expectations and other news broadly in line with speculation, all depends on how the herd reacts, price was up a few percent in New Zealand trading early on. I guess it has to go up after yesterday's sell off.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=af3YJIyj2wtg&refer=australia


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## RichKid (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Well, well, well, AMP fell to 7.22 in first few minutes of open, a bit stronger now. The EOD prices will tell us what the overall opinion is, I would have thought prices would have gone higher.


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## Bingo (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Opendown down at $7.32 which is more in line with my thinking late yesterday about the sell off. The result must have some ramification that are not clear from the superficial numbers. The experts will no doubt give us some idea today.

Bingo


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## RichKid (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

So, looks like the charts will tell us alot about future AMP movements, TA will be valuable on this one then. Gap down today is not promising. I'm still sticking to my earlier estimate in line with SIS's observations about consolidating in a broad range well below $8. Still have to say I'm a bit surprised by the low range of trading so far overall. Maybe the tough times ahead for the AllOrds will really crimp AMP's nearterm investment earnings. 

Let me know please if you see any good analysis via any of the financial mags, most of the broadsheets just reword co anncts and jazz up any little bits of info.

Gone up to 7.40 now, I should stop looking at the screen now and wait for EOD (smart money) indicators. I've decided against an entry for the time being.


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## Bingo (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Oh well, I've followed my gut felling and topped up my holding at $7.36. A bit more than gut I really feel that AMP will have a good year and the price looks good. Effectively $7.02 taking account of capital return (no tax) and dividend.

Bingo


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## Bingo (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

After I bought went to $7.10 and are now back over $7.50. Interesting change of heart.


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## still_in_school (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

keep pushing AMP.. go you little thing.. 

What a disaster this morning with AMP, excellent announcement, though market reaction different.. though AMP  is a turn around story for today.. 

1. Gaps down on Open
2. Breaks Support $7.25
3. comes to a low of $7.10
4. Recovers - breaks resistance ($7.25
5. Resumes Primary Uptrend..

and finds support back at $7.50

What a turn around story.. geez.. 

** though im still relying heavily on technical analaysis, this morning AMP sell off should have never of happened, though technical, im still very strong on my technical views of where AMP is heading.. 

Go you good thing..

Cheers,
sis


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## Bingo (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Moody's revises AMP ratings outlook
February 17, 2005 - 1:59PM


Ratings agency Moody's Investors Service has revised its outlook for AMP Ltd's ratings to positive from stable.

Moody's also affirmed all existing ratings, including AMP Group Holdings Ltd's A3 senior debt rating and AMP Life Ltd's Aa3 insurance financial strength rating.

The outlook revision follows AMP's release of its annual results for 2004.

Moody's said AMP demonstrated good improvements in its operating performance by producing a net profit of $934 million and a reduction in gearing to 27 per cent at the end of 2004 from 55 per cent at the end of 2003.

"The change in outlook reflects the expected continued ongoing improvements in AMP, following its return to its key strengths in the Australasian life and superannuation businesses," Moody's said.

"AMP has taken steps to improve its already strong brand, market position and financial strength.

"AMP is also well positioned for the challenges apparent in Australia's increasingly competitive financial services sector.

"It maintains a presence across the wealth management value chain, in particular a well diversified and extensive distribution approach and product offering."

AMP also announced that it would return about $750 million in capital to shareholders, as well as reduce its debt by returning $265 million to debtholders as it redeems its income securities.

"The proposed capital return to shareholders will be funded from the surplus with AMP Life, ultimately reducing the capitalisation of AMP Life," Moody's noted.

"Moody's believes that its financial strength will remain very strong, assuming it continues to maintain its profitability.

"AMP Life ultilises a robust, and recently improved, capital management methodology which ensures that a sufficient level of capital is maintained at all times in order manage its risk tolerance level."

Moody's said further positive ratings pressure would arise if AMP demonstrated its ability to continue growing profitability and maintaining market share into 2005.


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## RichKid (17 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Technically I'm still a bit concerned about it closing below the recent uptrend support line. Fibonnacci and Gann lines may be more significant now. The rejection of lower prices in today's candle is positive but not conclusive judging by the last few candles that did the same. Understandably a lot of volume today. If results had been way above expectations I think AMP would have gone much higher instead of lower.


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## Bingo (18 February 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

AMP downgraded.

AMP 
Broker: CSFB 
Rating: Unchanged at UNDERPERFORM 
Price: Price Target: $6.70

Comment: CSFB has left its recommendation on AMP at "underperform" despite what it calls a strong headline full-year profit result. The broker noted that despite buoyant markets, AMP's underlying result was only in line with forecasts. It also warns that the company faces significant growth hurdles through fee reductions and the loss of tax relief. "While AMP is continuing to make good progress in its cost reductions and growing funds flow above market share, the extent of the growth hurdles it faces is not being fully appreciated in the stock's current demanding share rating."


Bingo


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## dam01 (10 May 2005)

*AMP*

i bought amp  at 6.62 . Anyone have an idea where they might go?


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## mime (10 May 2005)

*Re: AMP*

??

How could you buy it at $6.62? The market value didn't get above $6.58.


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## DTM (10 May 2005)

*Re: AMP*



			
				dam01 said:
			
		

> i bought amp  at 6.62 . Anyone have an idea where they might go?




 

In my opinion, this is one of the stocks that fit Tech A's requirements for shorting.  Its way below the 200 day moving average and I can only see it dropping further.  I could be wrong....


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## It's Snake Pliskin (10 May 2005)

*Re: AMP*

Dam, 

Why did you buy AMP? And why $6.62? What so you see in this stock?

Sorry I don't have any information for you, but I frrl I would only trade this stock when there is no gloom.


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## rozella (11 May 2005)

*Re: AMP*

I was asked this question yesterday re AMP, so to save typing I will just copy the relevant part.


I have an emotional thing about AMP......meaning that I lost heavily with it on 5th May 2003, & vowed never to touch it again. My fault to some extent, but I still think they did the wrong thing, issuing all those shares to the institutions at a huge discount, leaving ordinary shareholders with a diluted value. 

However with emotions aside, it announced the capital return of 40.0/share on 17th Feb this year, & it still continued to go down, then had a few of weeks upturn, then has been sliding down ever since. The ATO approved the tax ruling last week on the 4th May, & its down since then (dn 10.0 today).....the problem is its recovery after ex-entitlement day.....how long will it take if its going down on good news. 

The return is good, especially with marginlending. Todays price (10th April) is 646.0, with a LVR of 70%, your investment would be 193.8/share, which would give a gross return of 20.64%. Usually the lure of the dividend gives a stock a reason to rise, but......it has not had any impressive upward moves yet. Maybe on 19th May when the shareholders vote for approval, but ex-entitlement is 20th May if approved. 

You are on your own with this one....but one never knows, it might bolt in the last week. 

Today (11th April) it rose 20.0, but hardly a blip on the chart.

rozella


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## dam01 (12 May 2005)

*Re: AMP*

amp price up to 6.88. Think i should hold, or get out while i am in front.


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## dam01 (19 May 2005)

*AMP?*

anyone been watching amp? they rose 4.8% today. Think they could higher in the near future?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (19 May 2005)

*Re: AMP?*

Andrew Mohl of AMP seemed to think they were valued at $7.20 in Feb. I can't remember exactly what was stated.


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## RichKid (19 May 2005)

*Re: AMP?*



			
				dam01 said:
			
		

> anyone been watching amp? they rose 4.8% today. Think they could higher in the near future?




Dam01, please do not create duplicate threads on AMP, from your post in the proper AMP thread it is clear that you are aware of its existence. I will now merge this thread with the existing one.


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## ob1kenobi (19 May 2005)

*Re: AMP higher today - why?*

Seems a reasonable stock. Certainly on the improve and the analysts seem to be rejoicing at its return to blue chip status. I'm inclined to keep it on the watch list a bit longer.


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## Sultan of Swing (26 September 2006)

Has anyone got any thoughts on AMP?

I've been holding for 18 months and have a reasonable profit but the growth prospects don't look very exciting but the return on equity is good at 28.8%. I'm still trying to get a handle on all the fundemantals.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (26 September 2006)

Sultan of Swing said:
			
		

> Has anyone got any thoughts on AMP?
> 
> I've been holding for 18 months and have a reasonable profit but the growth prospects don't look very exciting but the return on equity is good at 28.8%. I'm still trying to get a handle on all the fundemantals.




From a technical perspective I see that it may have been distributing since May.


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## laurie (21 June 2007)

With this being the final capital return for now what will happen with the money AMP will have? does it means bigger dividends unless they have other companies in their sights which I thought was not on the agenda 

cheers laurie


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## PhoenixXx (10 January 2008)

Hardly anyone discuss about AMP here as it "used" to be a stable share with the daily movement range of less than 1%. But due to the subprime impact, 2-3%movement a day had been common lately. Now the SP is slumping close to the last significant support at $9. Besides the issues that we have been familiar with (subprime, US stagflation, RBA will lift up interest rate), does anyone have any idea what's happening to AMP? Thx


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## thevadd (10 January 2008)

All I know is todays recommendation ABN Amno as follows:
ABN Amro rates AMP as Buy - Target $11.55 (was $11.45). Factoring in the recently announced sale of Cobalt/Gordian sees the broker lift its dividend expectations for the company by 2c per share for each of the next four payments. 
This pushes up its price target slightly and sees the broker maintaining its Buy rating. 


Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $9.31 Difference:$2.24 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AMP meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

The company's fiscal year ends in December. ABN Amro forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.74.


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## thevadd (10 January 2008)

I am keen to get some in AGF which is AMP's capital growth fund invested in  Chinese market. The current price is $1.53 
The fund invests in over 1,300 shares listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges.


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## PhoenixXx (10 January 2008)

thevadd said:


> I am keen to get some in AGF which is AMP's capital growth fund invested in  Chinese market. The current price is $1.53
> The fund invests in over 1,300 shares listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges.




AMP 'was' and probably 'is' still my favorite. And i also hold some AGF.  Based on the today's announcement, AGF is currently valued at $2.14 or ex distribution $2.01. As if subprime issue didn't affect it. With last year September's NAV of $2.10, the SP skyrocketed to as high as $2.15.


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 January 2008)

thevadd said:


> All I know is todays recommendation ABN Amno as follows:
> ABN Amro rates AMP as Buy - Target $11.55 (was $11.45). Factoring in the recently announced sale of Cobalt/Gordian sees the broker lift its dividend expectations for the company by 2c per share for each of the next four payments.
> This pushes up its price target slightly and sees the broker maintaining its Buy rating.
> 
> ...




I would never follow a broker's recommendation on AMP due to their excellent record of being totally and absolutely wrong on its direction and target prices in the past.

I am fortunate in being a long term investor and being in and out of AMP at the correct times. This is due to luck as much as science. 

I am presently out of AMP.

What I do feel strongly is that this is not the time to be buying AMP.

I enclose a weekly chart back to 1998.

Next support is $9.00.

If it goes through that , then $6.50 to $7.00.

After that its same old same old, back to under $4 or $3.

gg


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## nitpra (11 January 2008)

I recken brokers will also apply  common/advanced  technical analysis in their studies when recommeding a stock isnt it ?


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## tronic72 (15 January 2008)

"What I do feel strongly is that this is not the time to be buying AMP."

I enclose a weekly chart back to 1998.

Next support is $9.00.....

Bought at $9 today which is very close AMP's yearly low. I can't see it dropping further.


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## PhoenixXx (15 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> "What I do feel strongly is that this is not the time to be buying AMP."
> 
> I enclose a weekly chart back to 1998.
> 
> ...




Well...that's what i 'believed'. But if it doesn't hold $9 (today's closing simply reveals that), then as Garpal stated...couldn't imagine where the next support would be. AMP used to be suitable for safe CFD player, but 3% drop in a day has become common lately.


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 January 2008)

PhoenixXx said:


> Well...that's what i 'believed'. But if it doesn't hold $9 (today's closing simply reveals that), then as Garpal stated...couldn't imagine where the next support would be. AMP used to be suitable for safe CFD player, but 3% drop in a day has become common lately.




The following chart is posted not to add to your pain but to ponder where the large money has been over the last month or so.
As a general rule I have noted that it is worthwhile buying AMP when the brokers  advise to sell and selling when they advise to buy.

This chart shows that since mid December 2007 most large movements have been out of AMP. 

The minor uptrend over Christmas was on pitiful volume. Today approx    $120million worth of AMP was traded and $9 was breached. Large instos may have been buoying the price up over Christmas and NY before offloading it in the past week or so.

So price goes down on increasing volume and up on decreasing volume = price  
likely to continue down.

I cannot predict, wish I could , but refer to my previous post above to see support areas.

gg


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## tronic72 (15 January 2008)

PhoenixXx said:


> Well...that's what i 'believed'. But if it doesn't hold $9 (today's closing simply reveals that), then as Garpal stated...couldn't imagine where the next support would be. AMP used to be suitable for safe CFD player, but 3% drop in a day has become common lately.




For the record I was agreeing with your sentiments. I looked at AMP and it was static until 3PM at which time I purchased at $9.00. Who in their right might would have predicted that the price would start falling like it did.

Unfortunately if I had my time again I would probably still have purchased when I did. I'm not sure what it says for my picks that my portfolio consisted of two of the best and two of the worst performers of the day.

SDL, AMP & AWC (Worst)
HGI & PDN (Best)

At least I finished the day up.


----------



## Buster (16 January 2008)

Ouch..

Opened @ 8.76 this morning and closed on day low of 8.50..

Could get messy.  Like others here, I couldn't hazard a guess at where the next stop will be.. Hopefully 8.50..

It certainly looks attractive at that price though..

Regards,

Buster


----------



## LRG (16 January 2008)

The insurance industry is doing it tough.  AMP hasn't moved much from $10 for a year, so below $9 it is not looking like a stock that is going anywhere in the med - long term.  It may see some more down side in first half of 08.


----------



## overule (17 January 2008)

One thing i noticed is that brokers keep recommending this stock as buy when the price keeps dropping. Just like BNB, i think ones should hold.


----------



## ROE (17 January 2008)

Just remember Brokers main interest is to generate trading for their clients, the more you buy and sell the more fee they make


----------



## laurie (17 January 2008)

LRG said:


> The insurance industry is doing it tough.  AMP hasn't moved much from $10 for a year, so below $9 it is not looking like a stock that is going anywhere in the med - long term.  It may see some more down side in first half of 08.




Depends why you hold them! AMP has been a good source of dividends and capital returns for me, if you are after sp growth then maybe not 

cheers laurie


----------



## ROE (20 March 2008)

Lot of volume on AMP today anyone know what's up? double the average volume of around 9-10M shares last couple of weeks..the last time the volume hit this big is in Feb 14.

On Feb 14 it was a seller market..this time it's a buyer market 

Tempted to let go and get a nice profit  but I'm holding cos I like my AMP dividend and there are no better stock to put my money into.


----------



## jurn (22 March 2008)

ROE said:


> Lot of volume on AMP today anyone know what's up? double the average volume of around 9-10M shares last couple of weeks..the last time the volume hit this big is in Feb 14.
> 
> On Feb 14 it was a seller market..this time it's a buyer market
> 
> Tempted to let go and get a nice profit  but I'm holding cos I like my AMP dividend and there are no better stock to put my money into.




Its been mentioned before that it might be because of options expiry day. Lots of other shares have increased volume today too.

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/pdf/2008.pdf


----------



## Sean K (22 March 2008)

jurn said:


> Its been mentioned before that it might be because of options expiry day. Lots of other shares have increased volume today too.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/investor/pdf/2008.pdf



Yep, options expiry.

So, what's the go with AMP? What exposure do they have to bad credit? Major investments in anything that's gone pear shaped. 

I haven't seen any, so is it's fall just a confidence in the industry thing? Sentiment? Surely if their only exposure is to the general market downturn they will be worth looking at when a potential bottom is found in the market? 

Been stated in the financial pages on numerous ocassions that they would be a good fit with NAB. Any thoughts on that?  

I originally got a few of these in the float due to a couple of life insurance policies and managed to sell out around $20. Fhew! 

Not really trending back up yet.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (22 March 2008)

I would not think AMP has any exposure at all to subprime.....AMP is practically a  retailer of investment products so its price has fallen at a time that the value of investment products (eg. shares) have fallen also.....

Their key metric would be Funds under management, which literally depreciates when stocks depreciate.......add to that all the bellhops getting nervous cause stocks are going down, which of course means 'you should not invest in stocks cause they are risky'.

I'm a fan of this sector in the longer haul however as the sector has 'legislated' growth and incredibly good 'economics'...


----------



## ROE (22 March 2008)

I bought a nice chunk of AMP when it trades below $7.
this is  good stock that get hit by association with financial market 

Bear market is great  as soon as I identified stock that get a bad hit by association I'm loading it up.


----------



## ROE (22 March 2008)

kennas said:


> Yep, options expiry.
> 
> So, what's the go with AMP? What exposure do they have to bad credit? Major investments in anything that's gone pear shaped.
> 
> ...




good call getting out of AMP at $20  I would do the same..well I have a ceiling when my stock reach potential and I'm getting out and wait and wait and wait


----------



## oldblue (22 March 2008)

I hope you're right about AMP's lack of exposure to the sub-prime bug.
I'd have thought that any fund manager involved with international fixed interest/mortgage bonds or equity funds has the potential to find some, possibly indirect exposure there, eg the US investment banks, mortgage insurers etc.
Bear Stearns shares, anyone?


----------



## prawn_86 (22 March 2008)

I know my old man loaded up on these guys in 2003 when they were under $4

He sold them last year when they were ranging between $10 and $11, as they never actuyally broke $11 so he bailed.

Very good timing for him, and i think that was one of his best invstments to date.

I might have to remind him about them again if they drop below $7 again


----------



## oldblue (22 March 2008)

Talking of AMP and NAB, didn't the latter have a go at taking over AMP a few years back?
I forget the details but from memory it was badly handled and didn't get past first base.


----------



## ROE (23 March 2008)

oldblue said:


> I hope you're right about AMP's lack of exposure to the sub-prime bug.
> I'd have thought that any fund manager involved with international fixed interest/mortgage bonds or equity funds has the potential to find some, possibly indirect exposure there, eg the US investment banks, mortgage insurers etc.
> Bear Stearns shares, anyone?




AMP made most of their money from financial planning, superannuation, managed funds and insurance.

If they have any exposure to sub prime it would be their fund under management and even if they do it's other people money and they still pocket the fees maybe not the performance bonus fee but basic fees.

Having said that I know AMP has been very conservative since the UK venture disaster which is a good thing for them.. they are taking thing nice and slow these days (organic growth rather than M&A) so I be shock if they have any on their balance sheet.


----------



## oldblue (23 March 2008)

I agree with all that, ROE.
AMP is now probably the most conservatively managed stock in the wider financial sector.
Just making the point that an exposure doesn't have to be on balance sheet to inflict damage on a stock.


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2008)

May have found a bottom here IMO. Higher high and low by the look. Dodgy inverse H&S target just under 9 bucks on a break through 8 which should happen today on the overseas action.


----------



## MRC & Co (2 April 2008)

I agree Kennas and ROE (on the technicals and fundamentals respectively).

I bought in today on the strong divergence of the XFJ to the XMJ.  Time for another slosh of funds from one to the other.


----------



## ROE (14 May 2008)

Anyone reckon AMP could be a target for a big banks ?

There isnt much choice left for big banks if westpac & st george merge 
and manage to cut cost and increase margin.. that would be a real threat for NAB and the smallest of them all ANZ (The four Pillars).

there are only Bendio, BoQ, Adelaide bank, Suncorp and AMP so it's first mover advantage that westpac has over her rival in grab st george.


----------



## MRC & Co (14 May 2008)

Yeh, definately could be a target.  

BEN, BOQ, SUN in the same boat.  (I beleive Bendigo and Adelaide bank are now the same:  BEN).

NAB, CBA and ANZ will surely be out on the hunt.


----------



## YELNATS (14 May 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> NAB, CBA and ANZ will surely be out on the hunt.




Or any of these 3 could make a counterbid for SGB. Even if they weren't successful it could force an even higher price from WBC, which could give them some consulation.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 July 2008)

It took AMP 4 years, mid 2003 to go from $3 to $10. 

How long will it take for it to go back under $3 ? In the past AMP falls quicker than it goes up. 

And the volume has increased since it started this most recent downtrend.

This is a weekly chart over the past few years for AMP. Its in a convincing down trend.

gg


----------



## MRC & Co (9 July 2008)

Yeh, it's not looking the best technically hey GG!  

However, I still like it's fundamentals, not to mention, in a great demographic!

Can't say I can bring myself to short such a solid company.


----------



## solomon (10 July 2008)

ROE said:


> AMP made most of their money from financial planning, superannuation, managed funds and insurance.
> 
> If they have any exposure to sub prime it would be their fund under management and even if they do it's other people money and they still pocket the fees maybe not the performance bonus fee but basic fees.




I'm not a holder, so just a thought or two for the mix.

If the market value of AMP's funds under management (fum) drops by 20% then they collect fees on 20% less fum which means fees drop by approx. 20%.

AMP make money when their investments backing insurance sales makes more than they have to pay out on claims. They aren't making money here, but losing it at the moment. 

We aren't just in a bear market, we are in a financial collapse. So if Aussies ever start saving, they are going to be a little shy of giving their money to a financial - which impedes AMP's growth and so warrants a stock re-rating, and Aussies may well be shy of putting those hard earned $ into share markets because of the recent negative returns, so there is less money pushing market prices up including AMP's. 

caveat: NFA - DYOR


----------



## prawn_86 (30 October 2008)

Well i waded in and picked some up today. A couple days earlier would have been nice, but this is a 5+ year hold for me. 

I think their earnings will hold up fairly well as they get 9% pa flowing in from SG contributions and they are well managed. Div yeild over 8%, so even if that is maintained for the next 2 yrs and then starts to grow again i'll be happy. 

First long term purchase since the bear began.


----------



## MRC & Co (30 October 2008)

Not sure about the long-term future of the global economies, but AMP is one of the safer companies.  Definately one of the better buys out there.


----------



## brettc4 (30 October 2008)

I have been holding AMP for a couple of years now.  I bought it for the dividend and that has been good, along with a couple 40c capital returns has meant that even with the drop, this one is still good for me.

Would be nice for the SP to be a little higher though


----------



## prawn_86 (30 October 2008)

brettc4 said:


> I have been holding AMP for a couple of years now.  I bought it for the dividend and that has been good, along with a couple 40c capital returns has meant that even with the drop, this one is still good for me.




What was the go with those capital returns brett?

They were done through the tax office right? I couldnt find too much info on them, but i must admit i didnt look into them fully. Was it the last 3 yrs they issued them?


----------



## brettc4 (30 October 2008)

I believe it was over 3 years, but I only got the last two.

They were paid as a special dividend but they had a ruling from the Tax office which said, you could take the 40 cents of your original purchase price. So it wasn't counted as income at the time, but meant you were up for it as a Capital gain when you sold, but obviously if you held it for more than 12 months you got the 50% discount.

So all in all, a very nice little surprise with deferred tax.

Brett


----------



## prawn_86 (30 October 2008)

brettc4 said:


> I believe it was over 3 years, but I only got the last two.
> 
> They were paid as a special dividend but they had a ruling from the Tax office which said, you could take the 40 cents of your original purchase price. So it wasn't counted as income at the time, but meant you were up for it as a Capital gain when you sold, but obviously if you held it for more than 12 months you got the 50% discount.
> 
> ...




Ok so hypothetical:

You purchased at $8, got 2 of the capital returns, when it came to selling you would claim you bought them for $7.20. Have i got that right?

Or was there an option to take the cash just as a dividend?


----------



## brettc4 (30 October 2008)

> You purchased at $8, got 2 of the capital returns, when it came to selling you would claim you bought them for $7.20. Have i got that right?



Exactly.
My accountant found it out, so I imagine a number would have put it as income on their tax return, I am not sure of the ATO took it, or modified their return and told then to take it off their buying costs.


----------



## JTLP (31 October 2008)

Prawn that surprises me that you purchased now. I just flicked open the chart and although i'm sure the whole index is ugly...amp hasn't really convinced me its in any sort of bottoming phase or uptrend...

Also GG provided some good analysis on what happens to AMP along certain trend lines...I think its a few pages back...


----------



## prawn_86 (31 October 2008)

JTLP said:


> Prawn that surprises me that you purchased now. I just flicked open the chart and although i'm sure the whole index is ugly...amp hasn't really convinced me its in any sort of bottoming phase or uptrend...
> 
> Also GG provided some good analysis on what happens to AMP along certain trend lines...I think its a few pages back...




Yeh i did look at GGs charts and he makes a good point. But i did my calcs and research and am happy with my entry price. 

Obviously i have no idea what the markets will do in the short term, but hopefully holding for 5 - 10 yrs if it goes down another 10% or so in the short term it wont really matter in the long run.

I bought this more for yeild than for 'trend' as such.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 November 2008)

Wow, something put a rocket under these guys this arvo. Is it just confidence returning? (until the DOW tanks again)...

I now have to decide if i turn this into a short term trade and run a trailing stop. I certainly didnt expect it to move this much so quickly...

Decisons, decisons.


----------



## YELNATS (3 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Ok so hypothetical:
> 
> You purchased at $8, got 2 of the capital returns, when it came to selling you would claim you bought them for $7.20. Have i got that right?
> 
> Or was there an option to take the cash just as a dividend?




Hi Prawn,

I've been a holder of AMP since their demutualisation in 1998.

AMP have had 3 capital returns in recent times.

From their website:

Quote

Capital returns
Payment date	Record date	Amount per share
18 June 07	25 May 07	40 cents
19 June 06	25 May 06	40 cents
16 June 05	26 May 05	40 cents

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has confirmed that capital returns will be treated as a reduction in the cost base of AMP shares, and not as a dividend, for Australian income tax purposes. A copy of the class ruling can be accessed on the ATO website www.law.ato.gov.au.

ie. this means no potential capital gains tax is payable unless and until you sell the shares in which case your cost base is reduced by one, two or three multiples of 40 cents, depending when you acquired the shares.

There was no option to take the amounts as a "normal" dividend.

As far as I know, AMP has no immediate plans to make further capital returns.

regards yn


----------



## prawn_86 (3 November 2008)

Thanks YN.

Any explanation for the price jump today? Rally was especially strong towards slose and in the end of day auction.


----------



## prawn_86 (5 November 2008)

AMP looking to raise $00 mill through SPP.

My question is why?

Price not yet finalised, but im thinking i might take a small profit on this one and look to enter once the placement is over, as they generally halt momentum of stocks from my experience.


----------



## Sean K (5 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> My question is why?



Yeah beats me Prawn, hardly an explanation in the ann either..



> AMP is making the placement to enhance its capital position and increase business flexibility through the ongoing market turbulence.




enhance and be flexible? 

Maybe they should just go to the gym.....


Looks like you might get a cheap allocation though.


----------



## bloomy88 (5 November 2008)

I hold AMP stocks and saw they want to raise the $400 million in institutional placement.
What does that mean for their shareholders?
Do we get the first option to buy more shares?
Is this a good or bad sign for the company?

Any thoughts would be appreciated

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (5 November 2008)

bloomy88 said:


> I hold AMP stocks and saw they want to raise the $400 million in institutional placement.
> What does that mean for their shareholders?
> Do we get the first option to buy more shares?
> Is this a good or bad sign for the company?
> ...



Maybe you should read the announcement bloomy?



AMP also plans to offer Australian and New Zealand retail shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for up to A$5,000 of AMP shares through a Share Purchase Plan (SPP). The SPP price will be the lower of the institutional placement price or a 2.5 per cent discount to the average market price (volume weighted average price) during a period to be determined. Other details of the SPP are currently being finalised. A maximum of $100 million will be raised under this plan.


----------



## prawn_86 (5 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Price not yet finalised, but im thinking i might take a small profit on this one and look to enter once the placement is over, as they generally halt momentum of stocks from my experience.




Well there goes that idea.

Trading halt now. I guess its to do with the placement to the instos.

I do have faith in AMP, its just the prices tend to stagnate when a AMP is happening so i could put my money to better use elsewhere is my thinking.


----------



## prawn_86 (5 November 2008)

Down 4% on open. Saw that coming.

I wouldnt be surprised if it went down to about $5.39 which is the issue price to the insto's. They raised $450mill, so lets hope they put it to good use now. Perhaps a capital return next year


----------



## brettc4 (5 November 2008)

We ended the day at $5.89, so only a 9 cent drop.

Can someone please expand my education?
They have placed $450m with institutions, and possible anoter $100m with a SPP.
Shares outstanding in Dec 2007 was 1,849,000,000. This $550m will potentially add 102,000,000 shares @ $5.39

So immediately, they have a profit, but does this dilution of the share holding really affect me? It is possible that they will reduce the dividend due to these new shares? Does it affect me in any other way?

Cheers


----------



## prawn_86 (5 November 2008)

Brett, placements are complicated, with good arguements both for and against.

The positive factors are:
They now have more cash and if used wisely can increase future earnings.

Negative:
In % terms you now own less of the company (dilution), even if you take up your full amount in the placement, you will still own less due to instos getting some.


----------



## ROE (5 November 2008)

hmm I dont like it
I got AMP shares and I don't like any placement at all ..
I prefer buy back.

The day I buy any stock I want them to buy back 10% outstanding shares


----------



## drsmith (5 November 2008)

The directors statement in relation to the final 2008 dividend in the third Q report is not the most positive I have ever read. 


Their caution however may be due purely to the current economic environment and lingering memories of the near death experience back in 2003.


----------



## Timestar (28 January 2009)

*AMP - Very high p/e ratio*

A big concern with falling unit vales and subsequent lower fees etc. Seems more like a $4.10 - 4.25 stock. Not buying yet.


----------



## prawn_86 (11 February 2009)

Broke down below support at $5 today.

I wonder how much lower its going...? And do i sell now hoping to buy at a lower price later? Oh the decisons.......


----------



## drsmith (11 February 2009)

This is very much a case where I'd like to have the day back when they were over $10.

Oh the pain! the pain!


----------



## prawn_86 (11 February 2009)

drsmith said:


> This is very much a case where I'd like to have the day back when they were over $10.
> 
> Oh the pain! the pain!




I only bought at about 5.40, so do i cop a 10% loss and wait for it to fall further, or do i stick to my long term hold for yeild, which was the original purchase reason?

Im thinking the latter. If i can get 6% yeild (allowing for div cut) thats more than any bank is giving at the moment


----------



## prawn_86 (18 February 2009)

Getting absolutely smashed today for no apparent reason. Down about 7%.

Perhaps all those holders have decided the yeild is not attractive enough, a week after the news came out...


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2009)

This looks promising.

Breaking through that $5.50 ish zone will be a good long term signal perhaps. 

A sort of an inverse H&S in there as well.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 August 2009)

In the good ol days this would be prime takeover material?


----------



## Sean K (1 August 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> In the good ol days this would be prime takeover material?



The last time I heard of any M&A with this one was a potential NAB hook up. Was just speculation in a newspaper though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 August 2009)

I bought some AMP last week and may do so again tomorrow.

Something is up.

That last bar looks like insiders buying up ahead of an announcement.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 August 2009)

I just don't know what to make of today's price action. a few states I believe had holidays. The pattern is still bullish. I'm not a candlestick person but that last bar could be indecision. I just don't know. Any ideas?


gg


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I just don't know what to make of today's price action. a few states I believe had holidays. The pattern is still bullish. I'm not a candlestick person but that last bar could be indecision. I just don't know. Any ideas?
> 
> gg



I can't get it up on my charts at the moment for some reason, but it's clsoe to a bearish harami in candlestick language, which is a potential reversal pattern. It's not clear on your chart though. Lower volume, so nothing really sinister imo, maybe just indecision. Still longer term bullish while above $5.50 I reckon.


----------



## Miner (4 August 2009)

kennas said:


> I can't get it up on my charts at the moment for some reason, but it's clsoe to a bearish 'harami' in candlestick language, which is a potential reversal pattern. It's not clear on your chart though. Lower volume, so nothing really sinister imo, maybe just indecision. Still longer term bullish while above $5.50 I reckon.




Hey Kennas

What is meant by harami ?

Is it an English word  or a technical jargon in candle stick charting ?

For those have worked in Middle East or South Asia would agree that the word harami meant bastard. 

Not joking since I am unaware of the terminology of candle stick 

Regards


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2009)

Miner said:


> Hey Kennas
> 
> What is meant by harami ?
> 
> ...



I think it means pregnant in Japanese. Not sure why the formation is called pregnant. Bit odd. If it's a large candle followed by a doji it's called a harami cross. A pregnant cross?


----------



## Buster (4 August 2009)

Hey GG,



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I bought some AMP last week and may do so again tomorrow.
> 
> Something is up.
> 
> That last bar looks like insiders buying up ahead of an announcement.




Looks like your suspicion was right on the money.. up more than 4% this morning..

Regards,

Buster


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2009)

kennas said:


> This looks promising.
> 
> Breaking through that $5.50 ish zone will be a good long term signal perhaps.
> 
> A sort of an inverse H&S in there as well.



Looks like a good break. Wary of an over market pull back. Things have gone a bit crazy. Would be nice if that H&S is valid.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (4 August 2009)

Like a lot of stocks, looking a tad overbought? Closed longs, now short..


----------



## ROE (4 August 2009)

the higher the market goes the better AMP will become due to the sheer size of fund under management  and hello Mr 1% and 2% fee


----------



## prawn_86 (20 August 2009)

Results out and they have declared a 14c 50% franked interim dividend.

Still yielding about 5.5% from my buy in price on dividends alone so im happy with that.


----------



## GumbyLearner (19 September 2009)

Ewehh! That sounds ugly I'm going to go short on these!

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSSYD11882720090917

 SYDNEY, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Australian unlisted property manager AMP Capital Wholesale Office Fund is in discussion with investors to raise A$300 million ($263 million) in two consecutive note issues to repay debt, it said.

"It's not really a typical debt issuance, it is targeted at quasi-equity investors," Henry Elliott, who manages the fund, said.

To participate in the offer, investors have to commit to participate in both tranches, he said.

The issue will consist of two parts. The first note will pay a fixed rate coupon with a maturity of up to 20 months. Upon redemption, it will be immediately followed by a second series of floating rate notes with maturities between 6 and 9 years, paying distributions mirroring those received by equity holders.

Elliott, who did not give more details on the coupons, said marketing of the notes has started in August with plans to close the offer around November or December.

The issue, arranged by AMP Capital, a unit of Australian fund manager AMP Group (AMP.AX), will target funds of funds and pension fund investors in Australia and offshore.

The fund is expected to be rated A-minus by S&P but the notes will not be rated.


----------



## drsmith (20 September 2009)

I note the DRP for the current dividend is 70% underwritten which suggests to me that the directors are not entirely comfortable with capital position of the current balance sheet.


----------



## Sean K (20 September 2009)

I'm invested in AMP as a blind fundamental pick based on factors I do not understand.

Bought in because of the break through 5.50 longer term breakout only which I identified earlier with the inverse H&S clear.

$7.00 looks tough, $8.00 even moreso.

When the market falls over again (likely) watch out.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 September 2009)

kennas said:


> I'm invested in AMP as a blind fundamental pick based on factors I do not understand.
> 
> Bought in because of the break through 5.50 longer term breakout only which I identified earlier with the inverse H&S clear.
> 
> ...




Kennas,

What's making you think the market will fall over again, and what do you mean by fall over? A pullback? A lower and longer drop?


----------



## Sean K (22 September 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kennas,
> 
> What's making you think the market will fall over again, and what do you mean by fall over? A pullback? A lower and longer drop?



Unless the governments start paying off debt, increase rates, allow companies to fail for being crap, and start some regulation of lending practices and opaque financial instruments tied to debt, we'll just fall in the poo again, this time with even more debt. I can't see governments trying to find a way out, just digging us a bigger hole. Fingers crossed they find a way. In the mean time, with all this cash floating about, it has to find a home somewhere. Equities up! For now.


----------



## lukeaye (22 September 2009)

flip the image kennas, nearly a perfect head and shoulders. i think this stock has some upside maybe ready for wave 5.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 September 2009)

kennas said:


> Unless the governments start paying off debt, increase rates, allow companies to fail for being crap, and start some regulation of lending practices and opaque financial instruments tied to debt, we'll just fall in the poo again, this time with even more debt. I can't see governments trying to find a way out, just digging us a bigger hole. Fingers crossed they find a way. In the mean time, with all this cash floating about, it has to find a home somewhere. Equities up! For now.



Thanks Kennas for the clarification.

Keeping lending open and accessible is important for the economy. 

Cheers..


----------



## bloomy88 (9 November 2009)

Any opinions on AMP's announcement of the AXA asia pacific takeover?

If it goes ahead it would turn AMP into the powerhouse of Australia and New Zealand's superannuation, wealth management, risk insurance and retirement income. This would further leverage AMP to a global upturn, but provide more risk if the world economy double dips.
AMP also acquire AXA with no debt since AMP SA(the French parent company with 53% of shares) would bear the debt in exchange for AXA's Asian operations.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out but the fact AXA SA is in support is a big plus...

Disc: Holding AMP


----------



## Datsun Disguise (9 November 2009)

The Asian operations are the attractive part of the business in my view - growth potential there far outstrips the A&NZ business. The parent company has been looking to get their hands on the asian assest of AXA APH for some years - but not interested in the Aussie/Kiwi market.

I'd be a bit hesitant taking on an acquisition in this space given the regulatory uncertainty in the financial services area - they could just be buying themselves a bigger headache once the henry and cooper reviews are finished...

AMP would be a juggernaut though... and if they then looked to concentrate on expanding their banking arm....

The aus Governemtn is not keen on Australia losing exposure to investment in the region either, could also be some problerms there to overcome.


----------



## bloomy88 (9 November 2009)

AMP got a bit of a run on later in the day, after closing at $5.87 yesterday early in the day it fell to $5.66 but ended the day up 4.26% to $6.12.

Maybe once investors got to look at the proposal they thought it was a good deal for AMP...


----------



## laurie (9 November 2009)

Dilution .......... is that going to be a problem especially with dividends which is why I hold it has been a good cash cow for me 

cheers laurie


----------



## bloomy88 (10 November 2009)

Yeah dilution could be an issue with dividends in the near term. 
I beleive in the announcement AMP said they were going to maintain their payout ratio of 70-80% but that still means that dividends can drop if EPS drops as a result of the new shares issued in the takeover.

What is the percentage of AMP's current shares on issue are they offering to AXA shareholders?


----------



## prawn_86 (10 November 2009)

Im an AMP holder also, and i can see both the pros and cons. Here are my random thoughts...

Pros: Create a finance powerhouse within Aus. Will be one of the largest super providers/managers around. AMP has always been fairly low risk, steady performer, hopefully they can bolt on fairly easily.

Cons: Reduction of divs (probably), integration problems, prolonged takeover offer creating stagnant share price.

Even AMP have said that it will take 2 years for the acquisition to pay off, so i guess its just a matter of deciding if your willing to wait that long and see how it turns out in say 5 years time...


----------



## bloomy88 (10 November 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Even AMP have said that it will take 2 years for the acquisition to pay off, so i guess its just a matter of deciding if your willing to wait that long and see how it turns out in say 5 years time...




Yeah agree with the fact that it is definately going to be a long-term prospect rather than a short-term one.
To combine these two large businesses will require significant expenditure. In the announcement AMP said that they will benefit $250million from operational synergies but I cant see those synergies taking effect straight away.
The other risk of the takeover is if AXA employees/management who actually made the company so profitable leave and then AMP isn't actually getting what they paid for.

There are a lot of factors involved in the process but I still beleive that in the long-term it is going to make AMP a very powerful (and profitable) company


----------



## doctorj (10 November 2009)

From AMP's perspective, it's great.  You take out your main competitor at a bargain price (1.2x EV is pretty good value historically and even today). 

Australia is one of the few western markets with stable regulation, an established savings culture AND population growth.  Hurrah for AMP.

On the other hand, AXA Group is getting a hold of fast growing Asian assets for something like 1.6x EV. A beachhead in China (and most importantly established distribution channels) on which to grow. AXA Asia Pacific Holders are the one getting a bad deal in all this. 

Even a new bid that values the Asian assets at 2.0x EV would be getting it on the cheap IMHO.  I can't see AXA Asia Pacific holding AXA off a second time...


----------



## bloomy88 (13 November 2009)

Based on AMP's SP close last night, AMP is now offering AXA $5.68 in consideration for each share.
Getting very close to Richard Allert's (AXA Chairman) 'close top the mark' figure of $6.
I wonder what will happen if AMP's SP keeps rising over the next couple of weeks? AMP might not have to re-sumbmit a better offer....


----------



## laurie (19 April 2010)

AMP cleared to take over AXA NAB blocked by ACCC should stop others like NAB entering the fray 

laurie


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 April 2010)

If you buy AMP at $4 and sell at $6 you will never go wrong.

This stock has an uncanny ability to disappoint believers in its long term ability to provide consistent divis and capital appreciation.

gg


----------



## sptrawler (24 July 2010)

*AMP*

Well this could be an interesting one with the Cooper report out. 
It will be interesting to see how the industry funds go now that there is a "level playing field" in the past they only had to offer low fee products. Now they have to offer low fee products that perform. Just passing on their members funds to master trusts and then charging low fees for doing so will be challenged by retail funds that say they supply the research to their members. Time will tell but now the government has put the acid on the sector, I don't think the industry funds will be given a free ride.
You can only ride on the shirt tails for so long, the banks(master trusts) will start and charge for their costs.
 I may be completely wrong as these are only assumptions.


----------



## prawn_86 (25 July 2010)

I am patiently waiting for sub $5 prices and will then be buying more again. yeild at those levels is good, and as Garpul has pointed out, it tends to have long term cycles between $4 and $6


----------



## rumpole (9 March 2012)

*AMP- AMP*

Hello ,

I'm a newbie here. I'm not technically minded, just a punter.

I purchased AMP shares at about $9 before the GFT. They are down to $4 now. 

Is the AMP share price terminal, or can it recover if global conditions improve ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 March 2012)

*Re: AMP- AMP*



rumpole said:


> Hello ,
> 
> I'm a newbie here. I'm not technically minded, just a punter.
> 
> ...




I have been a long term trader of AMP. It generally moves between $4 and $8-9, so I myself would not be selling mine at present, in fact I am accumulating. 

I do not know if this helps Rumpole. It is forbidden to give specific buy or sell advice on stock forums, as it is against the law.

My regards to she who must be obeyed.

gg


----------



## nulla nulla (9 March 2012)

*Re: AMP- AMP*

From July 2007 before the GFC to March 9, 2012. Looks like a falling channel to me. Trade opportunities for $0.30 -$0.40 gains on a reducing entry point. Not familiar with the div/franking/yield. 

Can't see it jumping back to $9.00 any time soon. 






ps.  I may be bias. I did a bundle on this share when I switched from map (in the ascendency) to amp (falling on its' rrse). Long time back. Traded it a few times from March 2009 up to $5.00 but haven't been back.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 March 2012)

*Re: AMP- AMP*

I was pretty sure that there was already an AMP thread that I had posted on some years ago.

Is it possible to merge this thread with the original.

It is called. AMP  AMP Limited

gg


----------



## nulla nulla (9 March 2012)

*Re: AMP- AMP*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I was pretty sure that there was already an AMP thread that I had posted on some years ago.
> 
> Is it possible to merge this thread with the original.
> 
> ...




The thread was started 7/8/2004? How far back do you want to go? Calling Doctor Who.....


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 March 2012)

*Re: AMP- AMP*



nulla nulla said:


> The thread was started 7/8/2004? How far back do you want to go? Calling Doctor Who.....




lol

That's a beaut chart you posted above nulla, of AMP.

It reminds me of one I saw in a book on Wyckoff, a share trader last century, who described a bottoming pattern that looked similar, lots of stuff about "crossing the creek" etc.

Let's get going with the bull market I say, I'm hungry for the new Bentley SUV when it gets here later this year or next. The Arnage is starting to show it's age.

gg


----------



## Nortorious (14 April 2012)

What's the current thoughts on AMP?

To me it is looking like it is in an accumulation phase. Based on the sideways movement showing up on the charts. 

Thinking an entry around $4 could be a good long trade. 

What do others think?


----------



## TrendGAIN (15 April 2012)

It is definitely sideways! A pick up at $4 would need to be stopped at around $3.90, and no less than $3.75 to make sure you weren't riding it down. Would be nice to pick it up at $4 and ride it to $5.50! I am waiting for a breakout above resistance, with volume, to go long. The dashed purple lines are the linear regression channel lines - perfectly flat!


----------



## Nortorious (17 April 2012)

TrendGAIN said:


> It is definitely sideways! A pick up at $4 would need to be stopped at around $3.90, and no less than $3.75 to make sure you weren't riding it down. Would be nice to pick it up at $4 and ride it to $5.50! I am waiting for a breakout above resistance, with volume, to go long. The dashed purple lines are the linear regression channel lines - perfectly flat!




Hi TG,

Thanks for the response and your opinion, very much appreciated.

I'll be looking into this one a bit further and will provide my analysis (although I'm only a rookie so it might need be too accurate) when I can.

Thanks again and will watch this one with interest.

A blue chipper, with a nice dividend and potential for a 25% capital gain. Very enticing if strength appears when it gets back down to $4ish...


----------



## Nortorious (10 May 2012)

Hi all,

I haven't had a chance to put a chart up here detailing my analysis.

It got back down to the $4ish area yesterday and will be interesting to see if it slices through $4.01. 

Looked like there was a little bit of strength supporting it above $4.01.

Will be watching with interest.


----------



## Nortorious (12 May 2012)

Hi all,

Finally uploaded my analysis. Please remember that I'm very much a junior in this field so don't take any of my analysis as 100% right and don't use it to make an investment decision.

Ok, so what the AMP daily chart is telling me is this:

1. Accumulation phase is well underway
2. The price was pushed down to as low as $3.61 back in August last year. Notice on the bar labelled "A" the volume is ultra high and closed near the high for the day. This indicates buying is happening.
3. The price has bounced up and down for quite some time now and notice how it has gone above and below the trading range I have drawn ($4.19 to $4.37).
4. The price was unable to breach the $4.48 level, which proves the price is not ready to rally upwards.
5. We have had 3 bottoms (below trading range, labelled "B", "C", "D". Volume has slowly decreased showing supply is drying up. Volume is still high on the third but lower than the previous two bottoms. 
6. The three bottoms are consecutive higher lows, a good sign that an uptrend is starting to develop.

With all that, what do I expect to see? (and remember I'm a rookie at this!!).

1. I expect price to move back into the trading range over the coming weeks
2. Could possibly see another test around the $4.20 zone (will be looking for low volume)
3. The price will move up to $4.48 area and if it can push through this area with high volume (would enter here for low risk high probability trade). The profit % wouldn't be as high if you entered now, but if you entered now it would be a higher risk entry.

Would be interested to hear your thoughts on the analysis and we can see how this plays out. 

Disclosure: I've got some AMP in my super account but entry was poorly timed (as I was still learning about how to analyse charts). I wil be looking at adding more after it breaks through $4.48 with increased volume.

Thanks for taking the time to read.

Best of luck to you


----------



## notting (13 May 2012)

Last time it bounced of the tenuous diagonal line of support it was reasonably aggressive, yet it still could not penetrate overhead resistance at the top  of the current band.
It came down with far more attitude.
This time as it bounces off the same tenuous diagonal  line of support it is not  ending it's days close to the highs as it attempts to rise.
I'd prefer to be short at this point, though most pros would probably want to see a break below 3.94, and wouldn't be taking any position until a break is confirmed.
It has also gone ex in late Feb so not much to get too happy about in the short term.
These are just my sentiments, I'm no Tech analyst.


----------



## prawn_86 (7 June 2012)

Under $4 again. At these prices it offers a solid yield and always seems to bounce up to around 4.20. Will the overall global concern cause it to be different this time?


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Under $4 again. At these prices it offers a solid yield and always seems to bounce up to around 4.20. Will the overall global concern cause it to be different this time?



Yep, 7.3% and 11.2 P/E it's almost, if not, better than a bank.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Under $4 again. At these prices it offers a solid yield and always seems to bounce up to around 4.20. Will the overall global concern cause it to be different this time?






kennas said:


> Yep, 7.3% and 11.2 P/E it's almost, if not, better than a bank.




Sorry guys, I cannot agree.

Looking at a 3 year chart, it has fallen from around $6.50 to $5.00, to $3.50 in a fairly regular fashion.

I would be looking to buy at $2.00.

The Div and P/E can change by a board decision. The charts never.

I would be looking for a decisive move beyond $4.50 on very high volume before considering your tactic.

gg


----------



## prawn_86 (8 June 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry guys, I cannot agree.
> 
> Looking at a 3 year chart, it has fallen from around $6.50 to $5.00, to $3.50 in a fairly regular fashion.
> 
> ...




Changed your mind on the below then GG? (Bold added by myself)



Garpal Gumnut said:


> If you buy AMP at $4 and sell at $6 you will *never* go wrong.
> 
> This stock has an uncanny ability to disappoint believers in its long term ability to provide consistent divis and capital appreciation.
> 
> gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Changed your mind on the below then GG? (Bold added by myself)




Yes mate, I have changed my mind. 

I should never say never.

gg


----------



## prawn_86 (13 August 2012)

Back up above $4 again now. I'm still of the belief of buying below $4, collecting any dividends, and selling around $4.20 is an easy trade that would happen a couple times a year


----------



## polpak (15 August 2013)

market appears to be accepting results were better than gloomy recently expecting


----------



## laurie (15 August 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Back up above $4 again now. I'm still of the belief of buying below $4, collecting any dividends, and selling around $4.20 is an easy trade that would happen a couple times a year




Agree prawn I also take the franking credits as well  

laurie


----------



## Maxamud (16 November 2013)

Just inherited 250 shares in AMP. Saw it last over $5. But can't do much with 250 shares.


----------



## piggybank (18 January 2014)

Maxamud said:


> Just inherited 250 shares in AMP. Saw it last over $5. But can't do much with 250 shares.




Unfortunately they are worth even less now.

*Jobs To Be Lost In AMP Review*

A sweeping review by new AMP chief executive Craig Meller will result in job cuts as the financial services giant strives to slash duplication and boost efficiency. While AMP yesterday announced a broad management reshuffle and restructure, an internal memo to staff obtained by The Australian revealed that the group's review will take in its funds management arm, AMP Capital.

This info can be found by clicking on the link supplied - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...t-in-amp-review/story-fn91v9q3-1226803610234#


----------



## Maxamud (21 February 2014)

Looks like AMP is doing better than they have.


----------



## notting (6 March 2014)

This thing is trading at 20x earnings, after having just paid it's dividend.
We are talking about a company that has gone backwards ever since it floated and has lost earnings per share since listing whilst the super industry grew exponentially.
Really!  Can't you think of something better to do with your money than put it in this?


----------



## pixel (3 April 2014)

Maxamud said:


> Just inherited 250 shares in AMP. Saw it last over $5. But can't do much with 250 shares.



IMHO there were plenty of opportunities to buy 250 or 2500 more.
Even today wasn't the worst day to do so (I did) as a breakout above $5.085 seems to be imminent.




A successful 4th attempt breakout with good volume would promise significant upside. Technical Traders would love the Bullish ascending wedge and expect about 10% profit.


----------



## Craton (26 August 2014)

AMP on the up of late, six months to date. 




From here: http://shareholdercentre.amp.com.au/phoenix.zhtml?c=142072&p=irol-results

Amongst other info:



> Business performance
> 
> At the start of this year we outlined our strategy – to fix our insurance business, create a more customer-focused organisation, expand into overseas markets where it makes sense to do so and improve the efficiency of our business. Our results show we are making good progress in all these areas.
> 
> ...





Long term contrarian play seems to be working out ok so far.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (30 August 2014)

Craton said:


> AMP on the up of late, six months to date.
> 
> View attachment 59178
> 
> ...




seems to be going along well AMP, even with profit down and dividend up performance this year reasonable

with 22% of super industry funds i wonder if big four are looking at this company, i own AMP stock


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## oldblue (1 September 2014)

A lot of water has passed under this particular bridge since AMP was regarded as the "fifth pillar" but I wonder whether it would still be politically practical for one of the four to mount a takeover. I doubt, also, whether they would want to try at this particular time?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 September 2014)

Interesting, there also a lot of other banks around now like ME bank, BOQ, Bendigo Bank, InG, MacBank which have diluted AMP's status as fifth pillar

I see AMP more like an MLC or pure funds under management play by the big four, be interesting


----------



## oldblue (2 September 2014)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Interesting, there also a lot of other banks around now like ME bank, BOQ, Bendigo Bank, InG, MacBank which have diluted AMP's status as fifth pillar
> 
> I see AMP more like an MLC or pure funds under management play by the big four, be interesting




Maybe. I was thinking more about the sensitivity around allowing any of the big four to become even bigger through takeover. I don't somehow think that would happen.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (26 October 2014)

Reasonable trading update out during last week, seems to be hanging on to recent gains

Bit of dividend growth be good now to i reckon


----------



## laurie (26 October 2014)

Why doesn't AMP use that bank license and become a proper bank ?


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## Toyota Lexcen (19 February 2015)

bit of info out on AMP today

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...fit-jumps-32-dividend-up-20150219-13hpau.html

small increase in dividend which is nice as well,


----------



## Ann (22 February 2015)

G'day all,

Just dropping in to give my thoughts about AMP on a weekly chart.

This is a very long term weekly chart coming from June 2001 set in linear scale using EOD simple line for clarity of view. 

To me there appears to be a potential cup and handle formation in the making in its early days.  This stock looks as though it is going to offer massive upside in the very long term.

Short term there may be a retrace to around the $6 level, maybe.


----------



## Ann (23 February 2015)

As I glanced at the course of sales for AMP this morning, I spotted this little gem. Sadly Joe doesn't have an emoticon which fully describes what I am thinking...this will do. 

I will see if I can make an emoticon for Joe which may fill a gap in the emotes!


----------



## pinkboy (23 February 2015)

Ann said:


> As I glanced at the course of sales for AMP this morning, I spotted this little gem. Sadly Joe doesn't have an emoticon which fully describes what I am thinking...this will do.
> 
> I will see if I can make an emoticon for Joe which may fill a gap in the emotes!




As opposed to the trade @ 10.10.15?


pinkboy


----------



## Craton (23 February 2015)

Mayhap Ann was referring to the Devil's # more so than the # of shares traded...?

AMP nicely up again today I see.


----------



## sptrawler (23 February 2015)

laurie said:


> Why doesn't AMP use that bank license and become a proper bank ?




I wonder why another conglomerate hasn't bought them out, for their bank license.

I'm ever the optimist.

Nibbling away.


----------



## Ann (4 March 2015)

A very bearish Island Pattern formation has evolved on the AMP chart and may offer a good buying opportunity around $5.95 to $6 levels in the next little while. Let's see!


----------



## Ann (12 March 2015)

This survived the island top to go on and form a massively bullish flag on a flagpole. There she blows!


----------



## CanOz (12 March 2015)

Ann said:


> This survived the island top to go on and form a massively bullish flag on a flagpole. There she blows!
> 
> View attachment 61950




Bullish over 6.60 maybe? Otherwise it almost looks like a bear flag to me.


----------



## Ann (15 March 2015)

Well that was a pity, it flew up out of the flag with enormous energy and then four brokers slapped or should I say clubbed a 'hold' recommendation on it on the 12th of March with the full effect felt on Friday the 13th. That really dented its enthusiasm. It will be interesting to see how it travels now with the hold recommendation in place.


----------



## sptrawler (15 March 2015)

Ann said:


> Well that was a pity, it flew up out of the flag with enormous energy and then four brokers slapped or should I say clubbed a 'hold' recommendation on it on the 12th of March with the full effect felt on Friday the 13th. That really dented its enthusiasm. It will be interesting to see how it travels now with the hold recommendation in place.




So those three posts are, down, up, I don't know really posts.

Just joking, it is hard to pick winners in a shakey market.


----------



## Ann (17 March 2015)

sptrawler said:


> So those three posts are, down, up, I don't know really posts.
> 
> Just joking, it is hard to pick winners in a shakey market.




This stock looks like it is being attacked sptrawler. It should never have had an island top, that is a rare formation usually only seen in a weak stock. However it recovered strongly to form a strong bullish flag as it should have. As it was taking off in a really strong breakout, a group of brokers got together to slam it down to full effect on Friday the 13th. (Juvenile timing IMO the 11th would have been a more mature choice if you want to fark something without a lot of attention). I felt it would survive but resisted the urge to encourage investment in case of a solid pullback.

When you get a gang of four brokers who decide to slam/cosh/bash/smash a stock with a hold rating when the damn thing is about to fly  you have to ask, didn't they get their orders in early enough I wonder? Or did they miss this altogether? 

However I am thinking for all their efforts it looks like AMP may still rise to the occasion. I reckon it  has shiny brass balls. It's wee baby AGF is doing a bit of a flyer. Sorry no charts. Maybe later. Disc: Holding

However for those who want a picture of my opinion of the Lycra wearing gang of four losers...here you go...(sorry Joe but I gotta do it!).


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 February 2016)

its come off its recent highs like a lot of other financial stocks, but good results out today and small increase in the dividend

still believe this a good stock for the long term with management improving it or becoming a take over target


----------



## Mofra (19 February 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> its come off its recent highs like a lot of other financial stocks, but good results out today and small increase in the dividend
> 
> still believe this a good stock for the long term with management improving it or becoming a take over target



Certainly bucking the XJO trend today and consolidating a big day yesterday - the dividend strippers will be all over it for the next two weeks so not expecting a pullback in the short term.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> its come off its recent highs like a lot of other financial stocks, but good results out today and small increase in the dividend
> 
> still believe this a good stock for the long term with management improving it or becoming a take over target




a lot changed from early this year

article in the Australian today discussing AMP and its future, I still hold for takeover, there are plenty of banks around to get a loan, there is only 4 supermarkets


----------



## notting (25 January 2018)

AMP failed to act in their customers' best interests when advising people to put their retirement savings with an in-house superannuation fund, a damning review has found. -
Dick Heads


----------



## nulla nulla (24 April 2018)

Any thoughts on where the share price will bottom?


----------



## greggles (24 April 2018)

Seems to be support at around $3.75.


----------



## tech/a (24 April 2018)

These are extreme times for the banking sector and of course AMP.
I would not be attempting to trade anything remotely involved negatively in the royal commission---technically or other wise.


----------



## Knobby22 (24 April 2018)

AMPs model is based on hoodwinking the public.
Now it is broken the profit levels (if they make a profit) will drop substantially. Combining this with the legal fees expected over the next few years, I wouldn't touch the company with a barge pole.


----------



## pixel (24 April 2018)

Next topic for the Commissioner should be a probe into the ubiquitous insurance policies being spruiked by TV commercials and cold calls. You know there is something fishy going on and the public is being fleeced when they can afford to fork out $Millions for saturation advertising of funeral, life, pet ... insurance.
Crooks and fraudsters, the lot of them!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 April 2018)

I expect a [short term] bounce off current levels - 4.07.  Even if it fails, dead cats do bounce at some point and volume is coming in much heavier today.

Main reason - the next support at 3.50 is miles away.


----------



## tech/a (24 April 2018)

GB

Why would you think that an old support would be honoured in a situation like this.
This is extra ordinary and in my view a black swan event for the sector as a whole.

Anything short Id be very confident in!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 April 2018)

This is all info the government has had for many years. 

Calls are already happening for current ASIC people to be removed.


----------



## tech/a (24 April 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> This is all info the government has had for many years.
> 
> Calls are already happening for current ASIC people to be removed.




ASIC have been and still are Toothless until the fines and jail terms hurt
you'll always have people looking after their own interests in front of their client.
 A few million for a bank is like a couple of $$s for you and I.

Unfortunately for many its just a cost of doing business. (The Millions in fines)!


----------



## Knobby22 (24 April 2018)

tech/a said:


> ASIC have been and still are Toothless until the fines and jail terms hurt
> you'll always have people looking after their own interests in front of their client.
> A few million for a bank is like a couple of $$s for you and I.
> 
> Unfortunately for many its just a cost of doing business. (The Millions in fines)!




There are jail terms in the legislation but a deal is always done which results in an ""independent"" report, a promise to fix it and a fine to ASIC which runs the organisation. They will have to throw a few people in jail to clean it up.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 April 2018)

greggles said:


> Seems to be support at around $3.75.



`





`
 AMP one of many "big" stocks that has gone basically nowhere for a decade, QBE, CCL, BHP, RIO, ORG, TLS, GNC, STO, SGP. none of them sideways in a straight line so money to be made but a terrible buy and hold outcome for many average investors.
`


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 April 2018)

overkill ? ..probably.....bargain area? .....probably


----------



## peter2 (28 April 2018)

Is this a good time for a buy-out/take over?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 April 2018)

Knobby22 said:


> There are jail terms in the legislation but a deal is always done which results in an ""independent"" report, a promise to fix it and a fine to ASIC which runs the organisation. They will have to throw a few people in jail to clean it up.




Rich people never go to jail, unless they have upset a few other rich people along the journey.  One of life's rules.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 April 2018)

peter2 said:


> Is this a good time for a buy-out/take over?




Many punters from the old days recommended buying AMP at $4 and selling at $7.

It's an old trading range going aways back.

If you have the cohunas the answer is yes. If not the answer is no.

It all comes down sometimes to being contrarian or not.

gg


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (29 April 2018)

Yes peter2.

I guess only private equity now or another bank (not “big4”) that operates here in Aus.

But the regulation which is destroying Aus companies is a big problem and private equity may avoid AMP.

Very few mergers, acquisitions with stocks still well off highs.


----------



## greggles (30 April 2018)

More bloodletting at AMP. Chairwoman Catherine Brenner has stepped down, days after the company's CEO Craig Meller also resigned.

It's going to take a while before the dust from this Royal Commission has settled and the banking sector is not the place I would be looking for bargains at any time in the near future.


----------



## pixel (30 April 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Rich people never go to jail, unless they have upset a few other rich people along the journey.



... or unless they're considered _nouveaux riches_ by their peers, who believe money stolen by their parents or grandparents becomes legitimately theirs by inheritance.
But even for an Alan Bond, it's a couple of years R & R for $1Billion deemed wrongfully gained. And in Queensland, his name continues to be honoured by the *Bond University.*


----------



## Darc Knight (30 April 2018)

Keeps on happening, changing of the deck chairs. But is it just scapegoating or people resigning to take the "rap"  for the Company while a rotten culture still remains?


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 April 2018)

"($1 = 1.3201 Australian dollars)
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia’s largest-listed wealth manager AMP announced the resignations of its chairwoman and legal counsel on Monday, and slashed its directors’ fees by a quarter as it races to stem the fallout from damaging revelations of misconduct at the firm.
The exits follow disclosures at a judicial inquiry into the country’s financial sector that AMP misled many customers and deceived the corporate regulator. The scandal has already caused the early departure of CEO Craig Meller, who was due to leave by year end, and analysts expect more heads will roll.

Chairwoman Catherine Brenner and group General Counsel Brian Salter will depart immediately, AMP said in a statement.

Mike Wilkins, a former independent director who has been named both interim chairman and CEO, said the evidence given to the government-backed Royal Commission is “being treated extremely seriously by the board”.

“Appropriate steps are being taken to address the issues raised, and remediating our customers is being given utmost priority,” he said.

AMP, which is also staring at a possible class action, has seen around A$2.2 billion ($1.7 billion) wiped off its market capitalization over the past two weeks in the wake of the revelations. It was valued at A$11.6 billion at Friday’s close. 

The inquiry was told that advisers at AMP misappropriated funds of thousands of clients over the last decade by charging them without providing advice, and that it had repeatedly lied to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

Counsel assisting the inquiry said on Friday that AMP had breached provisions of the Corporations Act that carry criminal sanctions.

Brenner, Salter and Meller were singled out by the inquiry as part of a group of senior executives that allegedly modified a report by law firm Clayton Utz and submitted it to the regulator in late 2017 as “external and independent”.

Their intention was to limit the report’s findings about the involvement of AMP’s senior executives in misappropriating customer fees, the inquiry heard.

AMP said in its statement that Brenner, Meller and the other directors “did not act inappropriately in relation to the preparation of the Clayton Utz report”.

The statement did not comment on Salter’s behavior.

*REMUNERATION CONSEQUENCES *
The company said it would make a formal submission in response to the allegations raised at the commission by May 4.

The “employment and remuneration consequences” for individuals who were responsible for charging fraudulent fees will be determined once an external employment review is completed, which is expected shortly, it said.

AMP added that it would slash fees for board directors by 25 percent for the rest of 2018 as a recognition of the “collective governance accountability for the issues raised in the Royal Commission and for their impact on the reputation of AMP”.

AMP has already started searching for a new CEO, and will fast track the selection of a new chair to “help ensure stability and further strengthen governance”, Wilkins said.

David Ellis, an analyst at Morningstar, said it was likely more executives and board members would leave in coming weeks.

“All bets are off,” Ellis said. “With a new CEO and a new board, the future strategy could be completely different.”

AMP is currently staring at a possible shareholder class action, with litigation financier IMF Bentham Ltd saying it plans to fund one against the wealth manager regarding alleged misconduct as revealed by the commission.

An AMP spokeswoman declined to comment on the proposed class action.

The Royal Commission is just a couple of months into what is expected to be a year-long investigation. The inquiry will be able to make wide-ranging recommendations including legislative changes and on criminal or civil prosecutions.

Business News
April 30, 2018 / 7:59 AM / Updated 5 hours ago
*Australia banking scandal claims more AMP scalps, chairwoman quits*
Paulina Duran


----------



## luutzu (30 April 2018)

tech/a said:


> These are extreme times for the banking sector and of course AMP.
> I would not be attempting to trade anything remotely involved negatively in the royal commission---technically or other wise.




I'm betting the Aussie banks will have a Wells Fargo azz whopping soon. 

I personally know of two (elderly) people they've sold insurance to, charged them premiums on it... and they swear they do not remember asking, or need to, purchase the insurance.


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 May 2018)

Former Commonwealth Bank boss David Murray joins AMP as Chairman 
Business 17 minutes ago
AMP announced former Commonwealth Bank boss David Murray would be joining the financial services company as Chairman. It comes after the departure of former Chair Catherine Brenner, who stood down in the…
https://twitter.com/i/moments/992297682256318465


----------



## Knobby22 (5 May 2018)

Good choice. David Murray will command a lot of respect.


----------



## greggles (7 May 2018)

sam21poddy said:


> AMP is trading higher today (up 2.5%) from a trading range of 5.20/5.35 up to 5.69.




The above quote is from the first post in this thread, dated 7 August 2004. AMP was trading significantly higher back then, almost fourteen years ago. In 2001 it was trading (albeit briefly) at $22.

Here's some long term perspective on AMP in the form of a 20 year weekly chart. Surely this company must qualify as one of Australia's biggest large cap dogs.


----------



## Redbeard (7 May 2018)

AGM is on this Thursday the 10th May. Should be interesting!  The first AGM for anyone involved in the FSRC.     Does anyone think ANY motion is going to get passed?


----------



## notting (7 May 2018)

Redbeard said:


> AGM is on this Thursday the 10th May. Should be interesting!  The first AGM for anyone involved in the FSRC.     Does anyone think ANY motion is going to get passed?




They have all run away so they won't have to front the AGM.
Apparently it's very hard to change the culture of a company, as a side note, imagine trying to change the culture of a country, ala Trump vs China.  Nope.

However, David Murray, did change the culture of Telstra as a major share holder.
He will make a difference.  I actually think there is an opportunity here.
You would like to see it consolidate around between 3.50 and 4.00 for  a while.
However if they lose people like Shane Oliver, who is also one of the smartest analysts I listen to then yeah break up value should be OK.!

As for the rest of the industry.
The royal commission is a politically motivated joke.
Sure they found a few things so what!?
NAB has used it brilliantly by doing some restructuring and sacking 5000 workers!  What the criminal - Shorten and his thug union cu5ts are going to kick up a fuss about that? All NAB has to say is we cleaning out the crap from the Royal commission (thanks Bill, you dick head)!! It's poetry.

The rest of the banks are selling off wealth businesses that were inefficient and so on.   It's a great chance to stream line the business without too much opposition from dick head analysts and idiot share holders holding them back.
The banks will come out with a few fines but as slick as ever and primed for a run.
Even the US bond market should support that!
Nab is paying nearly 7% fully franked and trading at about a 15% discount to it's recent highs.  It's a great bond at the very least.
Jesus if you can't see an opportunity you're in the wrong game!


----------



## luutzu (7 May 2018)

notting said:


> They have all run away so they won't have to front the AGM.
> Apparently it's very hard to change the culture of a company, as a side note, imagine trying to change the culture of a country, ala Trump vs China.  Nope.
> 
> However, David Murray, did change the culture of Telstra as a major share holder.
> ...




That's one heck of a straight to the point, cut through all the bs analysis right there.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (8 May 2018)

greggles said:


> The above quote is from the first post in this thread, dated 7 August 2004. AMP was trading significantly higher back then, almost fourteen years ago. In 2001 it was trading (albeit briefly) at $22.
> 
> Here's some long term perspective on AMP in the form of a 20 year weekly chart. Surely this company must qualify as one of Australia's biggest large cap dogs.
> 
> View attachment 87248




The performance of AMP since 2001 is nothing great, but that chart is utterly bogus.

The total return adjusted for dividends/splits/etc looks nothing like that.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (8 May 2018)

Looks quite different


----------



## greggles (8 May 2018)

Fair enough. I was only trying to illustrate AMP's price action over 20 years. I wouldn't have known where to get a total return adjusted chart from, but am glad you posted it. It's always good to see the whole picture.

Apologies to anyone who was misled.


----------



## HelloU (9 May 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Looks quite different
> View attachment 87266



chart source?, thanks.


----------



## Redbeard (10 May 2018)

@notting...  like your comments.   Interesting the main 4 banks are off the boil but other banks are forging onwards, eg BEN MQR
@Investoboy   like your chart , looks a lot better
With all the re-nominating directors resigning takes out a LOT of the drama.  Dang would have been great to drag them over the coals..  
Anyway I hope the lunch is good at the Hyatt


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 May 2018)

Surely you can't include dividends it that chart. Fake chart

Another top 50 dog. Aus shares have been a dud for over 10yrs and probably the next 5-10yrs.


----------



## Triathlete (10 May 2018)

Growth in share price is what we need to look at......Dividends should be the icing on the cake....


----------



## greggles (10 May 2018)

AMP facing two separate class actions arising out of revelations from the banking royal commission. The company says it will vigorously defend the claims.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-10/amp-class-actions/9745802


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 May 2018)

hopefully China Life buy this oufit

otherwise can only see AMP struggling around 3.50-4$ for the next 5yrs, terrible situation for shareholders


----------



## Craton (10 May 2018)

I'd like to know how many AMP customers will ditch their policies and/or super and transfer to another provider. Am also curious to know if there's any one particular buyer or group of buyers picking up AMP stock.


----------



## Redbeard (11 May 2018)

greggles said:


> Seems to be support at around $3.75.



Well it has hit that today!   So what happens now?

BTW the AGM was more subdued than I thought it would be. I think the Board got off lightly.  And also no mention of purging the actual staff that did the wrong things. 
2 million in fees for no service collected versus 2 Billion wiped off the company once you got found out, great going.


----------



## Triathlete (11 May 2018)

Redbeard said:


> Well it has hit that today!   So what happens now?



Hopefully it holds this $3.70 level seems pretty strong goes back 15 years.
Has bounced off this level in 2003, 2009, 2011, 2012 now let's see if it holds in 2018.
Time to wait and see.....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 May 2018)

Resumption of downtrend on big volume spells trouble.  Looks like AMP might be a scapegoat for the entire finance sector.  A bit like Essendon in the AFL.  So I"ll buy when it gets to $2.88.


----------



## Joules MM1 (18 May 2018)

lemonade not included









it's the divergence we had to have


----------



## Joules MM1 (22 May 2018)

sizeable down day on most aus indexes yet asx:amp in the green

if amp is going to hell, who's buying?


----------



## Redbeard (4 June 2018)

too big to fail?


----------



## sptrawler (12 June 2018)

I wonder if WES, will have a nibble?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 June 2018)

Is Dover Financial closing going to help AMP?


----------



## Junior (12 June 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Is Dover Financial closing going to help AMP?




Dover closing means 500 advisers will be scrambling to find a new AFSL to join.  I would think AMP may take on some of those advisers, but I guarantee they will spend time & resources scrutinising the quality of those individuals before signing them up.


----------



## Porper (16 August 2018)

AMP broken down through support. Micro triangle formed beneath resistance. There is a short-term target at $3.02 but if that caves in...down she goes. Obviously the company has issues and the Royal Commission findings are a known unknown so it could get volatile.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 August 2018)

Spent August going sideways at around $3.40, this would have to be one of the greatest contrarian trades of all time, well the last 3 years anyway.

Im thinking that the new guy will split off the advice business and then maybe have a go a being a real bank, if they had a genuine go at banking then maybe reinvent themselves/AMP into something else, i mean the current model is doomed so whats next?.


----------



## sptrawler (26 August 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Spent August going sideways at around $3.40, this would have to be one of the greatest contrarian trades of all time, well the last 3 years anyway.
> 
> Im thinking that the new guy will split off the advice business and then maybe have a go a being a real bank, if they had a genuine go at banking then maybe reinvent themselves/AMP into something else, i mean the current model is doomed so whats next?.



I know it's weird and I don't know why I'm thinking it, but I kind of wonder if Wes wont have a go, I mean basket case, bank licence it screams Wes.lol


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (26 August 2018)

always thought a takeover option. 

the whole country needs less banks/financial providers. too many and thats why in royal commission

do they have bank license?


----------



## So_Cynical (26 August 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I know it's weird and I don't know why I'm thinking it, but I kind of wonder if Wes wont have a go, I mean basket case, bank licence it screams Wes.lol




Under the old WES leadership perhaps..spent a bit of time looking at the non bank advise financials last night, they have all been sold off and all have that vertically integrated model..whats to become of them?


----------



## sptrawler (26 August 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> always thought a takeover option.
> 
> the whole country needs less banks/financial providers. too many and thats why in royal commission
> 
> do they have bank license?



Yes


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Under the old WES leadership perhaps..spent a bit of time looking at the non bank advise financials last night, they have all been sold off and all have that vertically integrated model..whats to become of them?



The vertically integrated model, might be too difficult to segregate and control, which leaves the management exposed to litigation for negligence.
It is a highly regulated industry, and as shown by the Royal Commission all sorts of shenanigans can go on, at different levels of the organisation. 
The problem for management, they can delegate responsibility but not accountability, they will be held to account they take the high salary.


----------



## So_Cynical (30 August 2018)

With AMP the bulk of the revenue is advise, so if they spilt they will prob keep advise but then how robust of a business model is advise and no products?


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> With AMP the bulk of the revenue is advise, so if they spilt they will prob keep advise but then how robust of a business model is advise and no products?



Good point, but the Banks are offloading their super and advice sections, so I guess it will free up the sector to smaller players like AMP, IFL etc.
After this Royal Commission, I think there will be a pretty strict framework installed, that could well cause the smaller providers to ditch super and amalgamate. I don't think the "easy" money will be there any more, also if Labor get in the Industry funds will probably do well.
With David Murray at the helm, I think they will re invent themselves, but whether that means more or less profits, who knows.
I hold and probably will ride it through.


----------



## Darc Knight (23 October 2018)

Australia Post dumping AMP as the Superannuation provider for its Employees.
Woolworths considering it as well apparently.

https://www.superreview.com.au/news/superannuation/amp-loses-another-corporate-super-mandate


----------



## basilio (23 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Australia Post dumping AMP as the Superannuation provider for its Employees.
> Woolworths considering it as well apparently.




Interesting.  Frankly I would have thought that AMP was not a good value super provider in any case. Part of me is surprised that such big institutions hadn't done their homeowork.  

Or perhaps there are a range of reasons for choosing a particular  company to be your go to super provider...


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

AMP share price has been clawing its way up against the market trend.


----------



## Darc Knight (24 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> AMP share price has been clawing its way up against the market trend.




And up they keep on going - 0.91℅ today.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> And up they keep on going - 0.91℅ today.




They are going to have to get to $9 before I get my money back. 

Not much hope of that.


----------



## JTLP (24 October 2018)

basilio said:


> Interesting.  Frankly I would have thought that AMP was not a good value super provider in any case. Part of me is surprised that such big institutions hadn't done their homeowork.
> 
> Or perhaps there are a range of reasons for choosing a particular  company to be your go to super provider...




I’d say most people carry their super across or have done their work and go with someone else. 

Only new starters would be considering the default product.


----------



## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> They are going to have to get to $9 before I get my money back.
> 
> Not much hope of that.



Wow, something else we have in common.


----------



## Redbeard (25 October 2018)

Good opportunity to dilute them ATM.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 October 2018)

Getting smashed today $2.70 down 18+% ~ who didn't see that coming?, AMP selling off some large chunks to simplify the business and raise about 3 Billion...


----------



## sptrawler (25 October 2018)

One would think David Murray has decided a rebuild on the core superannuation business, is in order.
It is obviously a good platform, that has been tarnished, probably will take a few years to build confidence again.
Having the cash on hand to pay any penalties, will also be better than trying a capital raising, in the current climate. So it will be late next year before any phoenix comes out of this one.IMO 
But if the product is good, people have short memories, possible bottom draw share.


----------



## JTLP (25 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> One would think David Murray has decided a rebuild on the core superannuation business, is in order.
> It is obviously a good platform, that has been tarnished, probably will take a few years to build confidence again.
> Having the cash on hand to pay any penalties, will also be better than trying a capital raising, in the current climate. So it will be late next year before any phoenix comes out of this one.IMO
> But if the product is good, people have short memories, possible bottom draw share.




This is what I’m thinking. You’re selling the offcuts for decent sums, you can use this buffer against any claims / penalties. So you’re getting the superannuation business for nix. There’s brand reputation damage, but this can be fixed over time and with a simplified business, have no doubt it will.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 October 2018)

The old adage with AMP was buy at $4 and sell at $8.

I guess that's out the window now that it is a different beast.

gg


----------



## Darc Knight (25 October 2018)

Other Super funds are having trouble keeping up with inflows apparently. Inflows as a result of AMP.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Other Super funds are having trouble keeping up with inflows apparently. Inflows as a result of AMP.




These old goat companies are run my muppet directors. 

I guess it will be buy at $2 and sell at $4 from now on.

I do wish they would appoint directors to major companies who know what they are doing. It's not much to ask for $225,000 a year in some cases. 

gg


----------



## Knobby22 (26 October 2018)

Excellent article by Steve Bartholomew in the Age. Worth a read.
I don't hold but found it fascinating, particularly with regard to the company they sold the life insurance business to. To me the sale is a good move. It's the destruction of the AMP reputation and the consequent continuing outflows that is the reason I would not buy in.


----------



## galumay (26 October 2018)

AMP's record of destruction of shareholder value over the last 10 years should be a salient lesson for investors.


----------



## sptrawler (26 October 2018)

galumay said:


> AMP's record of destruction of shareholder value over the last 10 years should be a salient lesson for investors.



Also makes one wonder, why more execs haven't been prosecuted. IMO


----------



## SirRumpole (26 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Also makes one wonder, why more execs haven't been prosecuted. IMO




Maybe they should just sell everything, wind the company up and return the capital to the shareholders.

I doubt it will ever recover.


----------



## sileverback (26 October 2018)

could it be that the neolibcon squawkers got privatisation wrong. Did privatisation of AMP actually destroy value??  Horror!  Maybe the parrot/politicians should pause and rethink neolib dogma


----------



## Ann (26 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> Maybe they should just sell everything, wind the company up and return the capital to the shareholders.
> 
> I doubt it will ever recover.




It will be interesting to watch SR. They floated three ETFs in late 2016, GLIN Global Infrastructure securities, RENT Global Property Securities and DMKT Capital Markets. All ex Aus. I am wondering if this is an area they may expand into. ETFs seem to be a real growth area.


----------



## sptrawler (1 November 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if WES, will have a nibble?




Well it looks like I called that wrong back in June, it looks as though Macquarie may have a nibble instead. lol

https://thewest.com.au/business/ban...lt-at-embattled-wealth-manager-ng-b881008838z


----------



## luutzu (1 November 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Well it looks like I called that wrong back in June, it looks as though Macquarie may have a nibble instead. lol
> 
> https://thewest.com.au/business/ban...lt-at-embattled-wealth-manager-ng-b881008838z




I heard that Macquarie was supposed to be called up to the RC, not AMP. 

But then Mac got quite a few friends in high places, AMP apparently not high enough so it got dragged in, totally unprepared.


----------



## Junior (1 November 2018)

AMP Capital and AMP Bank still seem like strong businesses.  Their platform products are still competitive and not copping big outflows, their advice business needs a massive overhaul but could come out the other side in a good position.

Life Insurance business has been performing poorly for a long time, so it will provide shareholders with a bit more clarity now they have moved on.

SP will find a bottom, if it hasn't already.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 November 2018)

i cant see it recovering, probably best for Macquarie or others to take it over as soon as possible

may get to 3.50$ a share


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (25 January 2019)

Sooner it gets sold up the better. 

Great Australian corporation.


----------



## sptrawler (25 January 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Sooner it gets sold up the better.
> 
> Great Australian corporation.



I'll be taking a haircut on this one.


----------



## Miner (25 January 2019)

Reading the report published by AMP as a heads up on previous and future, I was expecting market would have punished AMP more, like they did to CGF and few others.
I suppose the difference made by AMP , market was expecting to get a poor result from them on performance and after effect of Royal Commission.
So as I am concerned will be on side line to see how AMP gets ready for the right price to get me excited which is not today
DNH


----------



## sptrawler (25 January 2019)

The only things in their favour are, a strong brand name and a general public with a short memory.


----------



## Miner (25 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The only things in their favour are, a strong brand name and a general public with a short memory.




short memory is first like and strong brand name is second like.
But who knows they could be  the Australian Lehman Brothers as a case study for MBA students. So people will never forget even they have short memory.
 Extract from MF (not at all my favourite but they are good in marketing so used their picture)


*Wipeout: AMP just warned shareholders of a 96% profit crash*

Tom Richardson | January 25, 2019 | *More on: AMP*


----------



## Knobby22 (25 January 2019)

To me that's an Ok result.
Still made a profit!


----------



## Miner (25 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> To me that's an Ok result.
> Still made a profit!



Good one. You should replace David Murray when he would be dislodged by the AMP shareholders


----------



## sptrawler (25 January 2019)

Miner said:


> *Wipeout: AMP just warned shareholders of a 96% profit crash*
> 
> Tom Richardson | January 25, 2019 | *More on: AMP*




Do you think that's the bottom?


----------



## Knobby22 (25 January 2019)

Miner said:


> Good one. You should replace David Murray when he would be dislodged by the AMP shareholders



There is a bottom somewhere.
Confucius say person who try to pick bottom liable to end up with dirty hands.


----------



## Miner (25 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> There is a bottom somewhere.
> Confucius say person who try to pick bottom liable to end up with dirty hands.



Just on tongue and cheek
The way Chinese Government is controlling Trump and rest of the world, I do not think Confucius would have lasted to share his thoughts and wisdom


----------



## sptrawler (14 February 2019)

Well AMP result sounds catastrophic, but it could have been worse, underlying banking and capital business grew.
So now to see if they can rebuild, get bought out, or go to gaol.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/com...ife-insurance-sale/ar-BBTytQp?ocid=spartandhp


----------



## Ann (20 March 2019)

*Australia's AMP scraps short-term bonuses to avert possible board spill*

_SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia’s AMP Ltd (AMP.AX) on Wednesday said it will not pay short-term bonuses to most executives, a move that could help it avoid possible board removal should investors vote against its remuneration practices for the second consecutive year......

.....“The board understands that many of our shareholders are disappointed with AMP’s business and financial performance in 2018,” Chairman David Murray said in the wealth manager’s annual report published on Wednesday. 

“Reflecting the circumstances of last year, the board decided to award zero short-term incentives for AMP’s group leadership team in 2018,” excluding unit AMP Capital, which was not directly connected to any accusations raised in the inquiry. _More 

I think this has been a pretty disappointing stock for 20 years except for 2004 to 2007 other than that it has been pretty second rate. AMP was floated for $10.23 on Monday June 15th 1998. The high price for the day was $28.78 and the low was $13.94.


----------



## sptrawler (20 March 2019)

Ann said:


> *Australia's AMP scraps short-term bonuses to avert possible board spill*
> 
> _SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia’s AMP Ltd (AMP.AX) on Wednesday said it will not pay short-term bonuses to most executives, a move that could help it avoid possible board removal should investors vote against its remuneration practices for the second consecutive year......
> 
> ...




Too many people lining their own pockets, it is a problem throughout Australian institutions, both public and private. IMO


----------



## Craton (27 March 2019)

Talk about imploding from the inside and demolishing an Aussie icon. Can AMP recover?
As AMP seems to be one train wreck after another, only time will time.


----------



## sptrawler (27 March 2019)

Craton said:


> Talk about imploding from the inside and demolishing an Aussie icon. Can AMP recover?
> As AMP seems to be one train wreck after another, only time will time.



But for the brand name, I think it would have already gone, my guess is when the dust settles someone will buy the carcass.


----------



## Ann (27 March 2019)

sptrawler said:


> But for the brand name, I think it would have already gone, my guess is when the dust settles someone will buy the carcass.



Who would want this **** sp? It has yet to turn into a penny dreadful like Myer. I have it on my watchlist for no good reason other than the desire to watch a road crash and it just keeps on getting worse. Years ago I upset someone on another forum when I told them it was junk and flick it off.
However having said that perhaps Evans and Partners may make an offer. Who knows or even cares?


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 March 2019)

Ann said:


> It has yet to turn into a penny dreadful like Myer.



Myer at least have the advantage that people don't hate them. Sure, people might be choosing to shop elsewhere but that's because someone else is giving them better value, it's not because they hate Myer as such it's just that someone else is catering to their wants better.

In contrast I'd expect there's quite a few with a definite dislike of AMP.


----------



## Ann (28 March 2019)

Totally agree with you Smurf, the point I was trying to make is there is still room for AMP's price to drop further. If Myer's price can become pennies then AMP surely should get there.
I can see a huge upside potential for Myer now John King is running the company. Even in one quarter he has made a massive difference. I have been watching AMP since David Murray took over as chairman. A new CEO was appointed in December perhaps he may be able to do something with AMP. Can't see any evidence yet looking at the stock price.


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2019)

Ann said:


> Totally agree with you Smurf, the point I was trying to make is there is still room for AMP's price to drop further. If Myer's price can become pennies then AMP surely should get there.
> I can see a huge upside potential for Myer now John King is running the company. Even in one quarter he has made a massive difference. I have been watching AMP since David Murray took over as chairman. A new CEO was appointed in December perhaps he may be able to do something with AMP. Can't see any evidence yet looking at the stock price.



I think AMP obviously has intellectual value in their processes, as a lot of companies were using them, also they have a banking license. All they lack is trust and credibility, but that can be turned around, as is proven in politics all the time.
With regard to Myer, I think the business model is dying at this point in time, with the internet most of what Myer sells can be researched and purchased online including free delivery. How they are going to compete against that, is beyond me.
Take for example last night, I was asking Mrs T about buying a hard cabin bag, to transport my camera gear on holidays, she recently had purchased two of differing sizes.
Anyway the thought of spending more money drove here in to a frenzy and in no time she had selected, ordered and paid for one, it arrives at the door next week.
I just can't see how Myer can compete with that, clothing may be different, but that is a very competitive market. Just my thoughts.


----------



## Ann (28 March 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I think AMP obviously has intellectual value in their processes, as a lot of companies were using them, also they have a banking license. All they lack is trust and credibility, but that can be turned around, as is proven in politics all the time.



Well we can only watch and time will tell us. 


sptrawler said:


> With regard to Myer, I think the business model is dying at this point in time, with the internet most of what Myer sells can be researched and purchased online including free delivery. How they are going to compete against that, is beyond me.




They are reducing debt levels and they are growing their online business "online and omnichannel sales" are up 18.6%.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (28 March 2019)

AMP just needs to be gobbled up ASAP.

They selling life insurance business, what’s going to be returned to shareholders?

What else is going to sold and will it be returned to shareholders?


----------



## Junior (28 March 2019)

Their banking arm and AMP Capital are still going alright from what I understand.  Their investment platforms are still receiving net inflows aren't they?  (i.e. MyNorth)

Insurance has been stuffed for a long time.  Advice could be stuffed but that depends on how their strategy unfolds from here on out, and what happens with all those BOLR contracts.


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2019)

Ann said:


> Well we can only watch and time will tell us.
> 
> 
> They are reducing debt levels and they are growing their online business "online and omnichannel sales" are up 18.6%.



I think the online will make a bigger and bigger contribution, to the point where the dept stores become a financial liability. I think I read somewhere, that the large shopping centres in the U.S are becomming deserted, it is difficult to see how they can remain profitable going forward. I guess they have to transform into entertainment hubs.
Probably drifting off thread, but a very interesting subject.


----------



## Craton (28 March 2019)

sptrawler said:


> But for the brand name, I think it would have already gone, my guess is when the dust settles someone will buy the carcass.



I'd say the IPO was to do just that, raid it from the inside. Then very shortly afterwards wasn't it the foray into Henderson's that started the rot leading to one of corporate Australia's biggest losses?
All the while, riding the brand into the ground. Anyways, water under the bridge. Going forward AMP needs new blood at the helm as I can't see the old guard setting an agenda that will steer AMP and its SP around anytime soon.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 March 2019)

For those of us of an advanced age, AMP was easy to trade. Buy at $4 and sell at $7-8. over the last few decades.

AMP is a huge lazy giant akin to the Public Service. 

It serves itself not it's investors.

My guess for the rest of my dissolute life is Buy at $2 and sell at $4.

I may even buy tomorrow.

Do the silly bastards still pay divies?

Below is a 10 year monthly chart.






gg


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 April 2019)

Couldn’t read article, but blackrock supposedly looking at AMp

Be interesting to see if gets bid up or flog parts off and shareholders get nothing


----------



## So_Cynical (4 May 2019)

Why we invested in AMP - Allan Gray is a very very successful contrarian fund manager, these guys have balls of steel.
~


----------



## Knobby22 (5 May 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Why we invested in AMP - Allan Gray is a very very successful contrarian fund manager, these guys have balls of steel.
> ~



Unconvincing. He looks to me as if he is trying to explain their mistake. Saying they are wrong 40% of the time was not exactly  comforting.

The latest outflows are large.
In my opinion they have bought too early. They haven't understood properly the brand damage. I mean even ordinary people with little financial knowledge know AMP are a poor performer and will advise moving the money into something like an Industry fund.

Technically I am not skilled but where's the turnaround? What if there is a market downturn? In my view this is likely in the medium term and this will further affect returns and increase outflows.

I note Bell Potter has a sell and an expected  price of $1.57 in 12 months time. I note more bad publicity is to occur with the lawsuits.

If they do turn it around it will be slow and painful and will occur over a number of years. It will probably involve rebranding the company. 

So many easier companies to buy especially for us smaller investors.


----------



## So_Cynical (5 May 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Unconvincing. He looks to me as if he is trying to explain their mistake. Saying they are wrong 40% of the time was not exactly  comforting.
> 
> The latest outflows are large.
> In my opinion they have bought too early. They haven't understood properly the brand damage. I mean even ordinary people with little financial knowledge know AMP are a poor performer and will advise moving the money into something like an Industry fund.




When was the last time you heard a fund manger say they are wrong 40% of the time? its just so honest its confronting, its what you dont want to hear but as a long time
investor and market watcher you know its true - i cant help thinking that a contrarian fund manger just kind of has to buy the biggest contrarian play in the market, its like 
an energy fund manager has to buy Woodside.

Anyway interesting that Allan Gray did jump in a little early (isn't hindsight wonderful) and started buying AMP at around the 3.50 mark in Sept 18 and have just kept on
adding to their position...its what they do, average in and capture the bottom.
~





~
https://www.allangray.com.au/b/swimming-against-the-tide-why-we-invest-in-amp/


----------



## Knobby22 (5 May 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> ......started buying AMP at around the 3.50 mark in Sept 18 and have just kept on
> adding to their position...its what they do, average in and capture the bottom.
> ~
> View attachment 94378
> ...




I think they have it wrong. Not fully  understanding the disaster.
Let's hope for their sake they are capturing the bottom from now.

In their defence they want a sizable holding and don't want to miss out. We as small investors don't have that constraint.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (5 May 2019)

Great posts knobby. 

What’s going to be the best result for shareholders?

 I think it needs to be taken over, AMP as a brand is finished. Its happened to lots of brands.


----------



## Knobby22 (5 May 2019)

Thanks for the compliment.
They could rebadge Toyota, with some big advertising campaign. 
It will bottom at some price but I still think minimum 6 months and could be 12.


----------



## greggles (15 July 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> It will bottom at some price but I still think minimum 6 months and could be 12.




Not today, that's for sure.

AMP is down another 14% to $1.85 after the company reported that the sale of AMP Life (the Australian and New Zealand wealth protection and mature businesses) to Resolution Life is highly unlikely to proceed on the current terms due to the challenges in meeting the condition precedent for Reserve Bank of New Zealand approval.

Management also said that an interim dividend will not be paid for 1H 19 due to the uncertainty around the AMP Life transaction.

Things going from bad to worse for AMP. The bottom looks to be a while off yet.


----------



## sptrawler (15 July 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Couldn’t read article, but blackrock supposedly looking at AMp
> 
> Be interesting to see if gets bid up or flog parts off and shareholders get nothing




That is the worrying part for shareholders, like me.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> That is the worrying part for shareholders, like me.




And me.


----------



## sptrawler (15 July 2019)

I guess David Murray and his reputation, is all that's between us and a cliff.


----------



## Junior (15 July 2019)

The $$$ amount of remediation still to be paid out to customers, in their Wealth Division is a real concern, in my view.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 July 2019)

greggles said:


> Not today, that's for sure.
> 
> AMP is down another 14% to $1.85 after the company reported that the sale of AMP Life (the Australian and New Zealand wealth protection and mature businesses) to Resolution Life is highly unlikely to proceed on the current terms due to the challenges in meeting the condition precedent for Reserve Bank of New Zealand approval.
> 
> ...




It's not the bottom I'd be worried about. 

It looks completely f....d.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 July 2019)

My post above may ignore the fact that AMP would have some value at a lower price as a takeover prospect.

gg


----------



## sptrawler (15 July 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My post above may ignore the fact that AMP would have some value at a lower price as a takeover prospect.
> 
> gg



Before your recent posts GG, I thought you were a glass half full, sort of guy.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Before your recent posts GG, I thought you were a glass half full, sort of guy.



Guilty as charged mate.

I posted original post after getting up a 10 yr chart. 

We used always buy AMP at $4 and sell under $8. Up and down like a bride's nightie. 

All very gentlemanly and couth.No suffering. No recrimination.

We are in unknown territory. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (15 July 2019)

Used to do similar with STO around the $11 mark..can not do this anymore..just to show us that blue chips can fade quickly


----------



## Junior (16 July 2019)

I think there's a good chance that AMP, as a brand will cease to exist at some point.  AMP Capital is a strong part of the business, and could be a great takeover target for another fund manager.

The financial planning division could end up being near worthless, or certainly a lot smaller with less adviser/practices on the books.

Life Insurance will be bought out, whether by Resolution Life or another group.

After that.....there isn't a lot left.  AMP Bank is relatively small.  Their platforms & super product division will likely also shrink.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 July 2019)

Junior said:


> I think there's a good chance that AMP, as a brand will cease to exist at some point.



Agreed - it's not like Toyota or Apple where the brand has some value and even if they wanted to change the name, it would work on the basis of "brand x is the new name for Toyota" sort of marketing. 

In AMP's case though, the name is a liability these days not an asset. It's not like Shell or any of the fast food chains where someone might pay to use the name under license issued subject to meeting the company's product standards etc. Rather, AMP is a name that you'd be hard pressed to have anyone use even if you gave it to them.


----------



## So_Cynical (16 July 2019)

The value of all Branding isn't what it used to be, the modern market can be very fickle.


----------



## Junior (17 July 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> The value of all Branding isn't what it used to be, the modern market can be very fickle.




Especially in financial services. 

"The big 4 banks and AMP" have a terrible reputation that won't turn around any time soon, in my opinion.  AMP should be broken up in some way and the profitable parts of their business repackaged & branded. 

I find it interesting when groups set up new super funds and try to give them a 'fun' name and colourful marketing, when in reality, the majority of super fund products really are very similar.  eg.  https://smartmonday.com.au https://www.spaceship.com.au/

Spaceship go to great lengths to brag about investing in tech.  The fact is they use ETFs & Index funds and charge you administration fees of 0.80% for the privilege.  One could easily set up a similar portfolio through an SMSF or retail fund.


----------



## sptrawler (17 July 2019)

Junior said:


> Especially in financial services.
> 
> "The big 4 banks and AMP" have a terrible reputation that won't turn around any time soon, in my opinion.  AMP should be broken up in some way and the profitable parts of their business repackaged & branded.
> 
> ...



I think I will be off loading the remainder this week, Junior.
There is probably two nickel and alumina cycles, before AMP are either buried, or rise from the dead.IMO


----------



## Junior (17 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I think I will be off loading the remainder this week, Junior.
> There is probably two nickel and alumina cycles, before AMP are either buried, or rise from the dead.IMO




The other side of the argument:  https://www.allangray.com.au/b/swimming-against-the-tide-why-we-invest-in-amp/


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2019)

Junior said:


> The other side of the argument:  https://www.allangray.com.au/b/swimming-against-the-tide-why-we-invest-in-amp/



Someone has let young Allan Gray loose with a PC and an Excel spreadsheet down a very dark and deep hole with only one power point. He needs a powerful lamp and lift up in to the real world. 

gg


----------



## peter2 (17 July 2019)

The AllanGray article is interesting in that the "analyst" assumed that the "AMP Life" business would be sold and hasn't considered that it wouldn't be in his "how bad could things get" paragraph. So already things are worse than they thought, plus price has fallen further. They're in a hole and they keep digging. 

Also good to see the RBNZ getting tougher on the Aust financial companies in light of their performance exposed by the Royal Commission and the poor enforcement by the Aust regulators.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> The AllanGray article is interesting in that the "analyst" assumed that the "AMP Life" business would be sold and hasn't considered that it wouldn't be in his "how bad could things get" paragraph. So already things are worse than they thought, plus price has fallen further. They're in a hole and they keep digging.
> 
> Also good to see the RBNZ getting tougher on the Aust financial companies in light of their performance exposed by the Royal Commission and the poor enforcement by the Aust regulators.



To be honest I'm sorry I never started off at age 18 flogging insurance that people didn't need and then morphed in to an Analyst.

gg


----------



## Junior (18 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> The AllanGray article is interesting in that the "analyst" assumed that the "AMP Life" business would be sold and hasn't considered that it wouldn't be in his "how bad could things get" paragraph. So already things are worse than they thought, plus price has fallen further. They're in a hole and they keep digging.
> 
> Also good to see the RBNZ getting tougher on the Aust financial companies in light of their performance exposed by the Royal Commission and the poor enforcement by the Aust regulators.




Yes agreed.  Also, a few months ago, AMP closed down their Life insurance products to new customers.....the product has become a little toxic.  I can't imagine they would want to ditch the Resolution deal at this point.


----------



## So_Cynical (19 July 2019)

I pointed out the Allan Grey position back in May,


So_Cynical said:


> Anyway interesting that Allan Gray did jump in a little early (isn't hindsight wonderful) and started buying AMP at around the 3.50 mark in Sept 18 and have just kept on
> adding to their position...its what they do, average in and capture the bottom.



~
View attachment 94378

~
Allan Grey looks to have got this trade wrong, will turn out to be another APN for them i reckon.


----------



## Junior (19 July 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> I pointed out the Allan Grey position back in May,
> 
> ~
> View attachment 94378
> ...




I'm more worried about the advice business than anything else.  Look what happened with the big 4, they paid out a vast fortune in 'remediation', and end up with businesses worth f-all compared to pre-Royal Commission.

I know advisers with both BT and with NAB-aligned practices.  Internal compliance processes completely crippled their ability to provide advice to clients.  The licensee want to see and vet every advice document before it goes out to a client, but their turnaround times for vetting can blow out to months!  So a client is waiting on a simple retirement plan for example.....and it never arrives.  Advisers are walking away from these institutions because it has become impossible to function under this regime.  

No one at ASIC or in these compliance departments have ever sat in front of clients or given advice, yet these guys are making the rules, and all they care about is public perception and avoiding negative headlines.  

AMP isn't even at that stage yet, their advisers are still able to operate and work for their clients, but their remediation program is only in the very early stages......so we'll see.  It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 July 2019)

Junior said:


> No one at ASIC or in these compliance departments have ever sat in front of clients or given advice, yet these guys are making the rules, and all they care about is public perception and avoiding negative headlines.



That's essentially the problem in the public service about which many complain indirectly.

Terrified of negative perceptions and the media and the surest way to make sure that doesn't happen is to simply hand everything to someone else and so that's exactly what they do.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 July 2019)

Many people believe at this point in time that AMP is "worth" $1.79

I enclose a daily chart over the past month.

It's been a bad month for AMP.

Many of our Fundamentalist members including Allan Grey are crunching the numbers on this little beastie.

And what of the unknown, unknowns.....

I wonder what the tea-lady knows that nobody else does as this is a total down spiral of a once great company continues.


----------



## sptrawler (19 July 2019)

Well I off loaded, the last tranche today and loaded up on nickel, We will see how that goes.
Hopefully not as badly as usual, I normally have a knack of picking the bottom, the same can't be said for the top.


----------



## sptrawler (19 July 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Many people believe at this point in time that AMP is "worth" $1.79




Unfortunately GG, AMP is worth what the next news report delivers.
If it is good news it stops the slide, if it is bad news, the slide continues only the rate of decline changes.
I have bailed out because IMO someone has to get a real spanking, who that is no one knows, but everyone has to make a judgement.
What do I say? Allow for the worst, hope for the best.
I think nickel will recover my money, before AMP does.
Hopefully.


----------



## sptrawler (8 August 2019)

AMP to do a capital raising at 15.7% reduction to the $1.78 closing price, could be the start of a turn around, not for the faint hearted. IMO. Amazing journey to $1.50 capital raising, talk about destroying shareholder value, they have had a outstanding knack at doing that IMO.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...l-after-2-3-billion-loss-20190808-p52ezo.html


----------



## Junior (8 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> AMP to do a capital raising at 15.7% reduction to the $1.78 closing price, could be the start of a turn around, not for the faint hearted. IMO. Amazing journey to $1.50 capital raising, talk about destroying shareholder value, they have had a outstanding knack at doing that IMO.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...l-after-2-3-billion-loss-20190808-p52ezo.html




At least they are having a real crack at a genuine rebuild.

I feel for long-term shareholders.  Lurching from one disaster to the next.


----------



## sptrawler (8 August 2019)

Junior said:


> At least they are having a real crack at a genuine rebuild.
> 
> I feel for long-term shareholders.  Lurching from one disaster to the next.



Depending how low they go, they may well be worth a flutter, to put in the long term draw of hopefuls.
Mine is getting to overflowing.
From the SMH:
Here are the first bits of key information from AMP's result this morning.

The company has embarked on a strategy to reinvent AMP as a contemporary wealth manager. This will involve a three-year $1 billion to $1.3 billion investment program to fund growth, cost reductions and fix legacy issues.

The firm also announced a revised agreement to sell AMP Life to Resolution Life. The purchase price of $3 billion includes $2.5 billion cash and a $500 million equity interest in Resolution Life Australia.

AMP will further localise its New Zealand wealth management and explore options to divest


----------



## Junior (9 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Depending how low they go, they may well be worth a flutter, to put in the long term draw of hopefuls.
> Mine is getting to overflowing.
> From the SMH:
> Here are the first bits of key information from AMP's result this morning.
> ...









Sunshine and lollipops for now.  Cap raising completed at $1.60 per share.


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2019)

Junior said:


> View attachment 96684
> 
> 
> Sunshine and lollipops for now.  Cap raising completed at $1.60 per share.



It is a long way, back to $5.
Currently at $1.85, nice quick profit for the ones in the capital raising.


----------



## Zaxon (9 August 2019)

I closed my high interest savings account with AMP today.  I don't consider them a fit and proper company to do business with.  With all the fleecing of customers they found in the royal commission, and the CEO just said in an interview yesterday that he can't promise they're not still selling dodgy products to customers, I've taken a stand.


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2019)

Zaxon said:


> I closed my high interest savings account with AMP today.  I don't consider them a fit and proper company to do business with.  With all the fleecing of customers they found in the royal commission, and the CEO just said in an interview yesterday that he can't promise they're not still selling dodgy products to customers, I've taken a stand.



I bought in when they sold off the U.K division, I thought they had cleaned out all the bad practices then due to the amount of provisioning they had to do, how wrong you can be. IMO
36m shares traded already today, 10% above the cap raising price, nice profit. 
The second biggest mistake I did was not sell them about a year ago, when I was re jigging the portfolio, the first biggest mistake was buying them in the first place.


----------



## jbocker (9 August 2019)

Sham. Scam. Take your pick.
Audacity should be the Headline of their raising.
Give em a few bob for management coffins. That'd be all I would give.


----------



## So_Cynical (10 August 2019)

Junior said:


> Sunshine and lollipops for now.  Cap raising completed at $1.60 per share.




$1.60 - deep discount, says it all really, 650 million.


----------



## sptrawler (5 September 2019)

$1.67 today, so the market doesn't see any upside yet.
Also they are beginning their Jenny Craig programme, from the sound of this article .

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ancial-advisers-licences-20190905-p52o8x.html


----------



## sptrawler (10 October 2019)

AMP seem to still be shrinking to growth, I wonder how far it will go before it reaches the vertex?

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ealth-in-new-restructure-20191010-p52zdq.html


----------



## Knobby22 (10 October 2019)

$1.595, a new low, looking to fall further.


----------



## IFocus (10 October 2019)

*AMP 'rotting from the inside out': CHOICE Shonky Awards*

*https://www.moneymag.com.au/amp-choice-shonky-awards*


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 November 2019)

a sluggish #break-out #alert

breaks above the channel, breaking above the 1.90 prev swing high should add bidside liquidity, the shorts have no back bone which itself is a good sign they fear the upside more than they see the downside.....

price needs to pop out not fall out to get attention? not always....a technical long at best right now


----------



## Knobby22 (1 November 2019)

EPS will be lower next year.
I think the PE of 11.5 is too high for a company with falling earnings (eps) and the possibility / probability of some other surprise. Also the court cases etc.

Where is my barge pole, I want to make sure I don't touch it.

Let me know when it gets to $1 and I will have another look.


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 November 2019)

not going to crack that 2 buk level this time around....and hits another technical hurdle


----------



## Joules MM1 (15 November 2019)

....very quiet move, deceptive bull


----------



## jbocker (13 December 2019)

I picked this in the 2020 competition because
I had shot my mouth off and said it would end up in a bucket. It didn't or hasn't yet, and I think a mild steady recovery may happen in 2020 if the company proves to behave itself. A mild steady recovery...WELL THERE YOU GO shooting my mouth off again.
I hope my other 3 tips come in.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2019)

I've picked this for the 2020 competition for a couple of reasons.

First because it came up as an output of an experimental system I'm tinkering with which prompted me to take a look at it.

Second because at this point it's do or die I think. Either it sinks further and ends up a mid or small cap (or disappears entirely) or it makes a comeback. All things considered, and noting the sentiment toward the stock is about as bad as it could be, my thinking favours it being a buying opportunity. That is, taking the contrarian position.

I'm also thinking that if the broader market were to turn down well then AMP has already had its slump. At least I hope so....


----------



## Knobby22 (21 January 2020)

The latest scandal with AMP today\ is that they put the money they stole from customers into a Super Fund which has the record of being the second worst in the country and also has high fees.

Reading between the lines it appears that they think anyone who has their super with them are mugs and are too unengaged to avoid being ripped off.

Can't believe the shares aren't lower.


----------



## Junior (21 January 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The latest scandal with AMP today\ is that they put the money they stole from customers into a Super Fund which has the record of being the second worst in the country and also has high fees.
> 
> Reading between the lines it appears that they think anyone who has their super with them are mugs and are too unengaged to avoid being ripped off.
> 
> Can't believe the shares aren't lower.




The media reports on this are a little over the top.

I imagine AMP would have decided to do this as it is the quickest and cleanest way of processing refunds.  The alternative would have been to make payments to a clients' existing super fund with another provider....potentially not possible, as you can't just pay money into someone's super fund without it being deemed to be either a contribution or a super rollover.  Only the individual or an employer can make these payments, not another corporate entity.  Hence, the refund sits in the AMP ERF until the customer then rolls it over to their fund of choice.

I agree though, that this was a terrible decision in the sense that the ERF has very high fees and poor performance.  They should be rebating fees on the ERF for a period of time to give the customer time to decide what to do with their money, and not have to pay anything in the meantime.


----------



## sptrawler (13 February 2020)

Another bad result for AMP, when will the knee point arrive on AMP's earning graph?
It is certainly hemorrhaging. IMO
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-13/amp-posts-hefty-loss-but-boss-could-get-bigger-bonus/11960696
From the article:
_The embattled financial services firm, which is still dealing with the fallout of the banking royal commission, made a $2.5 billion loss in 2019, as it took $2.4 billion in impairment charges to "address legacy issues".

Underlying profit slumped by 32 per cent to $464 million, compared to $680 million in 2018.

More client money was pulled out of its Australian wealth-management business, with AMP citing "ongoing reputational impact and strong competition".

Over 2019, the unit posted outflows of $6.3 billion — $2.4 billion of which was for pension payments_.


----------



## sptrawler (26 March 2020)

AMP scraps earnings forecast. Are they a buy at these low prices? Possibly, but not for me, AMP currently trading at $1.12
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-coronavirus-uncertainty-20200326-p54e0n.html
From the article:
_AMP has withdrawn its profit forecasts handed down in February that flagged flat growth for the wealth giant as the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic continues to grip.

The $203 billion company said its capital position and liquidity remains strong, but the uncertain environment and "resultant challenges" made it difficult to provide accurate forecasts for the year.

In February, AMP posted a $2.5 billion loss and scrapped its final dividend after a rough year that saw clients abandon its wealth management arm in the wake of the damaging findings of the royal banking commission, forcing it to launch a capital raising to offset massive writedowns


Forecasts predicted AMP would continue to face reputational issues that would impact outflows and operating earnings would be 20 per cent lower.


On Thursday, AMP confirmed 80 per cent of remediation payouts to clients were on track to meet the end of financial year deadline and the sale of AMP Life's remains would be completed by 30 June. The process for divesting the New Zealand wealth arm was also on track, it said_.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 March 2020)

My experience is that most fund managers just hope to be right 51% of the time. 

But collectively, they exaggerate. More likely 50%. I guess it depends on what they're measuring


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 March 2020)

take-over target ?
plenty of outflows, but, name fund that doesnt have nervous nellies right now ?

divergent 13 week money flows


----------



## Dona Ferentes (31 March 2020)

what a rotten business


> Today we’re announcing important changes which are necessary to simplify AMP’s contemporary superannuation business and separate AMP’s wealth protection and mature business from the AMP Group, before completion of the sale of AMP Life to Resolution Life Group, expected by the end of H1 2020.
> 
> *What’s changing*
> The changes involve proposed restructuring at a fund, trustee, product and product administration system level, and are due to take place on or around 15 May 2020, by way of a series of fund transfers, subject to Trustee approval.
> ...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 April 2020)

AMP plotted against XFJ since it floated.


----------



## sptrawler (23 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> AMP plotted against XFJ since it floated.
> 
> View attachment 102565



Absolutely horrid business, just keep trashing shareholder value, over and over. IMO


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Absolutely horrid business, just keep trashing shareholder value, over and over. IMO



All those policy holders waiting for any upside on their issued shares continue to be disappointed.


----------



## sptrawler (23 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> All those policy holders waiting for any upside on their issued shares continue to be disappointed.



I bought in after the U.K fiasco, I thought all the skeletons would have been dragged out of the closet, little did I know all they did was fill it back up again when the dust had settled.
IMO AMP should be used as an example of how not to run a company.


----------



## Boggo (23 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I bought in after the U.K fiasco, I thought all the skeletons would have been dragged out of the closet, little did I know all they did was fill it back up again when the dust had settled.
> IMO AMP should be used as an example of how not to run a company.




It seems to be tracking the XAO @sptrawler (XAO on the left below).

(click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler (23 April 2020)

Boggo said:


> It seems to be tracking the XAO @sptrawler (XAO on the left below).
> 
> (click to expand)
> View attachment 102568



Thanks Boggo, I bailed out at about $2, I had enough of their crap behaviour.
You can only ride a pig for so long, before you have to jump off and look for a horse.


----------



## basilio (15 July 2020)

AMP up for another (well deserved) kick in the bollocks.
Labour *and* Liberal MPS have united in calling for an investigation into AMP's treatment of its financial planners.
*AMP could face inquiry over its treatment of financial planners after Labor, Liberal MPs give backing*
Key points:

The enquiry into AMP's actions has the support of both the major parties
The ABC understands a class action against AMP will be filed imminently
AMP says it has the right to change the terms of its contracts with planners
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...over-behaviour-to-financial-planners/12455900


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 August 2020)

AMP would appear to have entered bogan territory from it's previous situation in a Flemington tent. It is possible it is headed for the breaker's yard. Large volume on Friday has seen it lose close to 13% in value. 

A burning deck it is. 

Perhaps a day trading stock for the brave over the next 3 months.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> AMP would appear to have entered bogan territory from it's previous situation in a Flemington tent. It is possible it is headed for the breaker's yard. Large volume on Friday has seen it lose close to 13% in value.
> 
> A burning deck it is.
> 
> ...



There are a lot of very stale holders of AMP. They got a small allocation from the _demutualisation _way back when, in Issuer Sponsored form. Sitting in their portfolio, or as the only constituent of said 'portfolio', (maybe TLS as well), and now even unable to sell easily. (100 point check and all that, or set up broker acct)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 August 2020)

Many instos here and overseas will be providing bandaids for their traders' fingers in an heroic effort to drag this dawg back up from it's open to the same close as last Friday.

And what will they do with the scrip. Probably turn it in to masks for selling at a profit tomorrow.

Today's chart.






gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (5 August 2020)

AMP may face criminal lawsuits by the end of the year, according to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, which has “more than five” current probes into the company.

ASIC deputy chair Daniel Crennan, SC, told a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday that the regulator had “a number of investigations that are ongoing internally” along with “a number of investigations that have been briefed with the CDPP [Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions]” in relation to AMP.

Under questioning from Labor MP Andrew Leigh, who asked if any matters would likely be filed in court by the end of the year, Mr Crennan said: “Yes, I would think so.”

https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...criminal-charges-by-christmas-20200805-p55iuw

In a note sent to clients on Wednesday, Macquarie Wealth Management said AMP was “caught between a rock and a hard place”.







> While the company’s earnings missed consensus by about 20 per cent, the wealth management arm of AMP still had not yet migrated customers from “high-earning products” to more modern products, which foreshadowed even deeper earnings pressure ahead, Macquarie said.
> “In our view, once this migration occurs, Australian Wealth Management will not make any operating earnings unless material cost-out is delivered,” the note said. “This announcement [of the profit warning] reinforces the ongoing downside earnings risk across all of AMP’s divisions over the medium term.”


----------



## sptrawler (5 August 2020)

The only saving grace IMO that AMP has is David Murray and I wonder how long that will last?


----------



## Miner (5 August 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> AMP may face criminal lawsuits by the end of the year, according to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, which has “more than five” current probes into the company.
> 
> ASIC deputy chair Daniel Crennan, SC, told a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday that the regulator had “a number of investigations that are ongoing internally” along with “a number of investigations that have been briefed with the CDPP [Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions]” in relation to AMP.
> 
> ...



Thanks @Dona Ferentes  for your update.


----------



## Miner (5 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The only saving grace IMO that AMP has is David Murray and I wonder how long that will last?



David Murray of Commonwealthbank fame after a stint with Commonwealth Government. 
Interesting connection for AMP.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 August 2020)

AMP's Head of Wealth Management has resigned today.

I'm wondering if it may not be a t/o target, minus a few million set aside to pay out the unfortunate over the next ten years.

MQG comes to mind. 

A bit of a long call.

gg


----------



## Miner (6 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> AMP's Head of Wealth Management has resigned today.
> 
> I'm wondering if it may not be a t/o target, minus a few million set aside to pay out the unfortunate over the next ten years.
> 
> ...



GG - you are and have been always a brave person. I wished your speculation works to save existing investors and depositors from a sure disaster


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 August 2020)

Miner said:


> GG - you are and have been always a brave person. I wished your speculation works to save existing investors and depositors from a sure disaster



Unfortunately many holders will lose out and depositors will lose the lot. Any t/o would need to shield the buyer from liability. It's happened before. 

gg


----------



## So_Cynical (7 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm wondering if it may not be a t/o target, minus a few million set aside to pay out the unfortunate over the next ten years.
> 
> MQG comes to mind.




Kind of makes sense.


----------



## Knobby22 (24 August 2020)

The saviour David Murray has given up and resigned. What a mess.


----------



## sptrawler (24 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The saviour David Murray has given up and resigned. What a mess.



My guess is that Murray will be the straw that breaks the camels back, I don't think long suffering shareholders will have to wait long, to be put out of their misery.
I wonder how many investors are still pouring money into AMP? my guess, not many.
It's really sad how a great brand name, can end up so tarnished, unbelievable IMO.


----------



## over9k (24 August 2020)

So are we all gonna buy the dip today or what lads? 

XD


----------



## Knobby22 (24 August 2020)

over9k said:


> So are we all gonna buy the dip today or what lads?
> 
> XD




I said a while back (post #343), I won't be interested till it drops below $1. Still think that. Just taking a while to get there.


----------



## wabullfrog (24 August 2020)

over9k said:


> So are we all gonna buy the dip today or what lads?
> 
> XD




It's up early


----------



## sptrawler (24 August 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> It's up early



I wonder if it is a case of pump and dump?


----------



## over9k (24 August 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> It's up early



I was just coming to post this! 

I don't own AMP but obviously those who do like the change.


----------



## over9k (24 August 2020)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...murray-resigns-pahari-steps-down-amid-scandal

Pahari's been demoted too. Seems everyone wanted them nuked. 

Why do I feel like there's a lot of rotten apples left yet though?


----------



## Miner (24 August 2020)

Murray is a great guy. A long rope needed to tie up accountabilities from CBA, Federal Govt and AMP.
Hay days are gone


----------



## over9k (24 August 2020)

Care to elaborate for those of us that aren't AMP holders?


----------



## Miner (24 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Care to elaborate for those of us that aren't AMP holders?



First of all I am neither holder of Amp nor cba.
Murray, the osted chief of amp is reportedly in some sexual misconduct  allrlegations. Public press is all about it.  I am saying what is in common knowledge. 
CBA inquiry on banking royal commission some how easy not touched.  That time he was holding a lucrative position in Fed. 
My philosophy of life is simple. Doing my Karma and not to compromise or sell my soul.
Whenever I see David Murray is involved to handle my money, my ethics stays out of his shadow.
Now I will review my options to invest CBA and / or AMP when it is right point to do so.
It is my personal decision. Shared to bring the context.
Dyor.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 August 2020)

Miner said:


> First of all I am neither holder of Amp nor cba.
> Murray, the ousted chief of amp is reportedly in some sexual misconduct  allegations. Public press is all about it.  I am saying what is in common knowledge.
> CBA inquiry on banking royal commission some how easy not touched.  That time he was holding a lucrative position in Fed.
> My philosophy of life is simple. Doing my Karma and not to compromise or sell my soul.
> ...



_David Murray has resigned after months of pressure over the appointment of Boe Pahari as chief executive of AMP Capital_.
Murray, as Board Chair, oversaw the process and made the appointment. It was Pahari at the end of complaints.
Pahari is now back in his old job as head of unlisted infrastructure in the AMP Capital office in London.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 August 2020)

Miner said:


> First of all I am neither holder of Amp nor cba.
> Murray, the osted chief of amp is reportedly in some sexual misconduct  allrlegations. Public press is all about it.  I am saying what is in common knowledge.
> CBA inquiry on banking royal commission some how easy not touched.  That time he was holding a lucrative position in Fed.
> My philosophy of life is simple. Doing my Karma and not to compromise or sell my soul.
> ...



Just for clarification, I don't believe it was Murray who was the subject of sexual allegations but rather Pahari. Below from news.com.au 



> Mr Murray said he resigned over the board’s decision to appoint Mr Pahari to the top position at AMP Capital despite a known sexual misconduct allegation in 2017 that Mr Pahari was penalised for.




gg


----------



## jbocker (24 August 2020)

Seems like a good excuse to flee the coup.
And as far as misconduct goes I want to know who screwed AMP.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> And as far as misconduct goes I want to know who screwed AMP.



Insurance was built on a commission basis. Transforming to "Financial Services" and the hoped-for _*Rivers of Gold *_associated with funds management and Superannuation (_there are streams of dollars falling down, just put your hand out the window and collect some_) was always going to be hard, if the incentive model permeates your culture. There was no alignment with investors' expectations; all structured to grab, grab, grab.


----------



## Miner (24 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just for clarification, I don't believe it was Murray who was the subject of sexual allegations but rather Pahari. Below from news.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> gg



Yes. I mixed up. Thanks to @Dona Ferentes and you for keeping me on the track.


----------



## sptrawler (25 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> Seems like a good excuse to flee the coup.
> And as far as misconduct goes I want to know who screwed AMP.



I think Murray has had enough, he was head hunted to sort out the AMP mess and has been at it for 2 years, it is obviously too hard IMO.
The only one who didn't get the push, was the one who was accused of the sexual misconduct, I guess the shareholders got what they wanted, now to see if it was a good move or not.
This article sums it up well IMO.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...rector-john-fraser-resign-boe-pahari/12588366
_AMP said the resignations of Mr Murray and Mr Fraser, and the demotion of Mr Pahari, are in response to feedback from some major shareholders about the initial promotion of Mr Pahari to head one of the company's main business units despite a previous sexual harassment allegation against him.

Mr Murray said he and the rest of the board had always treated the harassment complaint against Mr Pahari seriously.

"My view remains that it was dealt with appropriately in 2017 and Mr Pahari was penalised accordingly," he said in a statement.

"However, it is clear to me that, although there is considerable support for our strategy, some shareholders did not consider Mr Pahari's promotion to AMP Capital CEO to be appropriate.

"Although the board's decision on the appointment was unanimous, my decision to leave reflects my role and accountability as chairman of the board and the need to protect continuity of management, the strategy and, to the extent possible, the board._"
_Helen Bird, a specialist in corporate governance at Swinburne University said pressure on the company, its management and board had been building for some time, a lot of it in the background.

"I think when the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors (ACSI) became very vocal last week you started to see it really roll on," she told ABC News.
"I think the company had to have a circuit breaker, and I think today's announcement was intended that way."
However, Ms Bird added that, "A circuit breaker is not a fix."

Simon Mawhinney, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, which owns around 7 per cent of AMP's shares, appears satisfied with the company's response, for now.

"Change was needed in creating a safe workplace and sound culture," he said in a statement to ABC News.

The Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility's chair, Brynn O'Brien, said she was not surprised by Mr Murray's departure, given his views on a range of other social and environmental issues.
"ACCR has always questioned the suitability of David Murray for chair of a modern ASX50 company," she commented in a statement.

"Murray is a well-known climate sceptic. He waged a war against the ASX's inclusion of 'social licence' in its Corporate Governance Principles. It is quite ironic that AMP's catastrophic social licence issues ultimately brought him down.

"His views on risk and governance frameworks are stuck in the '80s and do not meet shareholder expectations of modern boards._"

I don't hold.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> _AMP said the resignations of Mr Murray and Mr Fraser, and the demotion of Mr Pahari, are in response to feedback from some major shareholders about the initial promotion of Mr Pahari to head one of the company's main business units despite a previous sexual harassment allegation against him._




What did Pahari actually do, or rather what is alleged. Was it " I suppose a root would be out of the question"  or full on Attila.  

AMP shareholders need to know as they know little holding such a dawg. 

gg


----------



## sptrawler (25 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> What did Pahari actually do, or rather what is alleged. Was it " I suppose a root would be out of the question"  or full on Attila.
> 
> AMP shareholders need to know as they know little holding such a dawg.
> 
> gg



Too true GG, it is weird the shareholders wanted Murray sacked because he promoted someone who misbehaved.
However if the misdemeanor was punished, and then a position became vacant that the person was most qualified for, why wouldn't you give them the job? It would be grounds for discrimination not to do so IMO.
If Pahari did a criminal offence, the police would have been involved.


----------



## over9k (25 August 2020)

I feel like there's a hell of a lot we're just never going to be privvy to. It'd be handy to know an insider, but doubtful someone like that is going to be on this forum.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 August 2020)

over9k said:


> I feel like there's a hell of a lot we're just never going to be privvy to. It'd be handy to know an insider, but doubtful someone like that is going to be on this forum.



Mr. Pahari's behaviour seems that it could be more problematic than I thought, if these allegations are correct. 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...any-is-still-covering-up-20200816-p55m7n.html

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 August 2020)

There are now further allegations of systemic problems at AMP, apart from Mr. Pahari's London episode, this time in Australia,  in relation to sexist and misogynist behaviour. From The Age, today, allegations made by Senator D. O'Neill 



> Labor Senator Deborah O'Neill has aired a damning testimony using parliamentary privilege to expose a case of systematic sexual harassment and bullying at wealth giant AMP.




https://www.theage.com.au/business/...er-amp-harassment-claims-20200826-p55pbn.html

This does not auger well for AMP.

gg


----------



## basilio (26 August 2020)

This is a bit old but, IMO, still very relevant to AMP's reputation as Financial Managers of their  clients investments.

*AMP Replaces CEO With Pokie Machine: ‘It’s About Fairer Outcomes for Our Customers’*







Financial services giant AMP has made a “Where’s The Gold” pokie machine it’s new CEO in a bid to drastically improve its current money management strategies.

Following the banking Royal Commission’s discovery that AMP charged investors ‘fees for no services’, the AMP board of directors appointed the pokie machine as part of a new ‘fee for potential services’ model.

The board today issued a statement to its shareholders and customers saying: “We’re committed to providing our investors with more chances to make back their money than ever before.

“Fairness, transparency and getting three recommended products in a row to unlock the bonus feature – that’s what this is all about.”

When asked for comment, the new CEO yelled, “Yeeeeeeha!” before making an explosion noise and directing further enquirers to “Findo the Dog”.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2018/04/21/amp-replaces-ceo-with-pokie-machine/


----------



## sptrawler (26 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mr. Pahari's behaviour seems that it could be more problematic than I thought, if these allegations are correct.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...any-is-still-covering-up-20200816-p55m7n.html
> 
> gg




Not much of that report could be classed as criminal behaviour, sounds like a lot of unpleasant coercion by a creepy boss, it sounds as though the management put him on the carpet.
Having said that, AMP appears to be a cesspit of poor behavior on most fronts IMO.
I am so glad I offloaded them and put them on my never to be bought again list.


----------



## over9k (26 August 2020)

I'm still watching them. They might end up in the "popping festering canker" thread yet.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 September 2020)

This interesting day trading stock has no lack of sellers nor buyers. Any thoughts or charts on AMP. 

I believe it sells Chairmen and Executives. 

gg


----------



## Miner (19 September 2020)




----------



## sptrawler (2 November 2020)

Well I bet the shareholders are gagging for this offer to be accepted, typical of several companies, run into the ground sucked dry by management and then an overseas company picks up the carcass for a song. It does come with a ready built banking license.
Just my opinion.








						Mixed response on $6.4b takeover bid for AMP
					

The offer lobbed by AMP's US suitor, Ares, far exceeds the price tag analysts had placed on the troubled wealth manager.




					www.theage.com.au
				



From the article:

Mr Dive added AMP's board would try to push the price higher but added he did not expect a bidding war. "AMP isn’t what it was 15 or 20 years ago where it was viewed as the fifth pillar of the Australian economy."
Morningstar analyst Shaun Ler told clients last week he had expected Ares' offer would be valued around $1.45 per share, representing a 15 per cent discount to his fair value estimate of $1.70 per share. Morgan Stanley had valued AMP at $5.36 billion, or $1.60 per share.
Mr Ler said on Monday that Ares' $1.85 a share offer highlights the "quality of AMP's assets and its growth prospects".

"This is positive news for shareholders who otherwise have to sit through numerous trials in the coming years," he said in a note to clients.


----------



## over9k (2 November 2020)

The conspiracy theorist in me says something else was at play.


----------



## Joules MM1 (8 April 2021)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rKrxG2EP/
		

just a bounce ?
the main group of adventurous mountaineering group is 1.200's 
so how much is the current "technically" oversold divergence  playing into that landscape ?
13 week money flows are very negative but that's also not a clear signal as major players do not gobble until retail and
weak managers puke better than a python after dinner mint


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 April 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.tradingview.com/x/rKrxG2EP/
> 
> 
> just a bounce ?
> ...



Woof, woof woof.

gg


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 April 2021)

the main group of dog handlers gone from 2mm april 8th to 4mm to buy at 1.20


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (23 April 2021)

Is anyone up to speed with AMP. 

In the news today. 

gg


----------



## Knobby22 (23 April 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Is anyone up to speed with AMP.
> 
> In the news today.





Garpal Gumnut said:


> gg



Thanks Garpal for the heads up.

Separating out the private market investment management business and giving it a new name. Pretty sensible.
Maybe realise a bit of value. Demerger to happen 1H 2022.
Don't own but the demerged business might be worth having. (One of my yearly competition picks, hopefully this will turn it around).

_AMP announces intention to pursue demerger of AMP Capital’s private markets investment management business AMP Limited today announces its intention to pursue a demerger of AMP Capital’s private markets business (“Private Markets”) of infrastructure equity, infrastructure debt and real estate. The proposed demerger follows a decision by the AMP Board to conclude discussions with Ares Management Corporation regarding a potential sale of Private Markets. The demerger would create two more focused businesses, better equipped to pursue and allocate capital to distinct growth opportunities, and realise efficiencies: • AMP Limited: a retail-focused, wealth management, investment and banking group with scale and market-leading positions in the Australian and New Zealand markets and strategic investments in key international partnerships. AMP Limited will also retain: o A minority stake in Private Markets of up to 20 per cent to participate in the future growth of the business o AMP Capital’s Global Equity and Fixed Income (GEFI) business, for which AMP is currently exploring sale or partnership options; and o AMP Capital’s Multi-Asset Group, which is in the process of being transferred to the AMP Australia business • Private Markets: a leading global private markets investment manager with a strong performance track record in differentiated asset classes of infrastructure equity, infrastructure debt and real estate, and capabilities to expand into attractive growth adjacencies. The proposed demerger would unlock further value in the Private Markets business by simplifying its structure, providing operational independence and enabling it to establish a new brand. Private Markets will also put in place a new management equity plan, to attract and retain talented investment professionals and management. The targeted timeline is for the demerger to be completed in 1H 22._


----------



## sptrawler (23 April 2021)

Yes it sounds like they are seperating the jewels from the costume jewelry. I dont think it will go down well, that they are keeping a 20% stake in the jewelry section, like as if the tie is going to add value?
Just my opinion, I did own, but way off my radar these days.


----------



## airlinebooking (7 May 2021)

AMP Hits almost $1
A recent hit to the share price saw AMP drop to almost $1 per share.
is AMP at risk of being sold and carved up?


----------



## Knobby22 (7 May 2021)

airlinebooking said:


> AMP Hits almost $1
> A recent hit to the share price saw AMP drop to almost $1 per share.
> is AMP at risk of being sold and carved up?



No one seems interested.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (7 May 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> No one seems interested.



interested in the stock? _No. too many unpredictables_
interested in preserving my capital? _Yes. Better places to invest_



> _In one of his first executive decisions, AMP Australia CEO Scott Hartley  has undercut the $840 billion market for platforms and slashed fees by  up to 22 per cent._


----------



## sptrawler (27 May 2021)

The misery just keeps coming for AMP, another mess unfolding.








						‘Unconscionable’: ASIC sues AMP for charging thousands of dead customers
					

The wealth giant has been hit with a lawsuit by the corporate regulator over allegations related to its charging of dead customers for life insurance and advice fees.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
AMP is being sued by the corporate regulator for allegedly charging thousands of dead people for insurance and financial advice despite being notified they had died, a damning revelation first aired in the banking royal commission.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission announced on Thursday morning it has filed a lawsuit in the Federal Court against five AMP-owned companies related to “unconscionable” practices occurring from May 2015 to August 2019.

The regulator alleges AMP collected more than $500,000 in life insurance premiums from more than 2000 dead customers’ superannuation accounts, and $100,000 in financial advice fees from 27 dead customers.

AMP acknowledged the civil proceedings in a statement with the ASX, claiming the issue was covered in the royal commission and AMP had subsequently completed a remediation program to compensate more than 10,000 customers a total sum of $5.3 million, which included compensation for lost earnings.

“AMP has taken this matter very seriously and we will now carefully consider the allegations raised by ASIC. We have been assisting ASIC with its investigation and will continue to engage constructively as part of the legal process,” AMP group general counsel David Cullen said in a statement.


----------



## barney (27 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> another mess unfolding.




Just about to post up the Volume Movers and saw AMP was on the top of today's list

I actually own 286 AMP shares .. yay, lol.

Volume and price action at the lows when there is trouble in the air ... Not sure what to make of that just yet. 

Any ideas @sptrawler ?


----------



## sptrawler (27 May 2021)

barney said:


> Just about to post up the Volume Movers and saw AMP was on the top of today's list
> 
> I actually own 286 AMP shares .. yay, lol.
> 
> ...



I guess the question is Barney, are you going to top up?


----------



## sptrawler (27 May 2021)

It amazes me, that the people who over the years have held the tiller at AMP, can look at themselves in the mirror. This is where atheists hope Karma exists IMO. It is the one share I bought on the basis of company brand reputation and was sadly disappointed, bought at $5 sold at $2.75, best move ever IMO.








						‘Morale is at an all-time low’: AMP Australia to cut 20 per cent of staff
					

AMP’s bank and wealth business is headed for a restructure that will shrink its workforce by around 20 per cent over the next year, saving $300 million.




					www.theage.com.au
				



From the article:
AMP Australia will sack up to 20 per cent of its staff over the next year during a restructure designed to make the business more sustainable as the wealth giant focuses on domestic operations under a new executive leadership team.
Mr Hartley met with AMP’s board on Thursday for a monthly meeting, although did not discuss the plan as staff redundancies do not require board approval.

One source, who declined to be named, said staff had been given little information about which teams would be affected by the restructure but many were aware terminations would begin in mid-June.
“Morale is at an all-time low as staff either wait for redundancies or are resigning in droves in disgust at the lack of changes in the company and additional work due to large restructures and no pay rises,” the source said


----------



## barney (27 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I guess the question is Barney, are you going to top up?




Lol ..... Fair question Homer.  

Given AMP is still a $4 Billion dollar Company, even after all the recent naughtiness, I would say ...

No I won't just yet 

However, in saying that, if AMP were a 5 cent Spec with the same "relative" Chart

I'd be likely taking an entry position just in case the "subterfuge" turned out to be something "important"


To be honest, longer term I can easily see AMP doing and "Elders" 

(ELD)  50 cents to +$9 bucks (2013-2018)  ... life changing if you have the time to wait (I don't unfortunately)


----------



## barney (27 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> It amazes me, that the people who over the years have held the tiller at AMP, can look at themselves in the mirror.




Agree Homer ... 

I'm no Saint, but there were some pretty ordinary decisions made at the helm. 

And, they deserve to be "taken to task" over those decisions.

Lets hope those involved become "better people" in the wash up.  That would at least be something positive from it all.


----------



## sptrawler (27 May 2021)

Good point Barney, you cant be bitter forever, cheers mate sometimes we all need a tap on the head.
I tend to hang on to my anger way too long.lol


----------



## Craton (27 May 2021)

Corporate incompetence should be subject to capital punishment.
Too harsh, too draconian you say?
Maybe so but these high flying execs will think long and hard before destroying shareholder value and company reputation.


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## over9k (28 May 2021)

Craton said:


> Corporate incompetence should be subject to capital punishment.
> Too harsh, too draconian you say?
> Maybe so but these high flying execs will think long and hard before destroying shareholder value and company reputation.



They usually have significant stakes in the company themselves so it's not in their interest for things to go pear shaped. It's only when they sell their own holdings off first and then you get news like this that the hammer has to fall.


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## Smurf1976 (28 May 2021)

barney said:


> Given AMP is still a $4 Billion dollar Company, even after all the recent naughtiness, I would say ...



In another way though, I think the simple fact that it's no longer officially a large cap stock says an awful lot in itself.

Go back some years and along with BHP and a few others, AMP was one of those companies that were pretty much the very definition of "big business" in the Australian context and one of the first names that would come to mind for the average person if someone mentioned investing.

They've fallen a very, very long way since those days. 

That said, my system has told me to buy the stock and so I will be buying. Whether it turns out to be a winner or not is of course yet to be seen and will take time to unfold. That's based on a purely mechanical system, there's absolutely zero human discretion applied. It says buy so I buy.


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## over9k (28 May 2021)

Yeah, AU's big four have a pretty iron grip on things. 

I remember when I think it was NAB that wanted to buy out/merge with AXA and wayne swan (it was of course subject to regulatory approval) torpedoed it in an attempt to get AMP to merge with them instead so AU would finally have a fifth big bank. 

And, well, we now all know how well that plan went.


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## Craton (28 May 2021)

over9k said:


> They usually have significant stakes in the company themselves so it's not in their interest for things to go pear shaped. It's only when they sell their own holdings off first and then you get news like this that the hammer has to fall.



True. However, I am referring to the top end of town.
Aren't most of these holdings are usually very big?
So to them it's only a drop in the ocean. Also, how many actually buy at market price?
Many of these top execs have, what it's called? Oh yeah, very attractive remuneration.
With AMP though, as we all know it's been a very dismal performance since the IPO late last century.
Any one remember how big AMP's war chest was back then?
Billions of $$$ sunk/wasted on bad decisions or worse, corporate greed...
Shame on them for not setting the bar high.


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## over9k (28 May 2021)

Craton said:


> True. However, I am referring to the top end of town.
> Aren't most of these holdings are usually very big?
> So to them it's only a drop in the ocean. Also, how many actually buy at market price?
> Many of these top execs have, what it's called? Oh yeah, very attractive remuneration.
> ...



True, but, incompetence and corruption are not the same thing.


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## Craton (28 May 2021)

over9k said:


> True, but, incompetence and corruption are not the same thing.



Huh, did I use the word corruption?
Sorry, am not following your train of thought.


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## sptrawler (28 May 2021)

over9k said:


> True, but, incompetence and corruption are not the same thing.



Incompetence and feathering ones nest, isn't the same thing either.
Paying excessive salaries, with a failing business model, isn't actually corruption and it isn't incompetence, it probably falls into the category of not giving a $hit.


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## Knobby22 (29 May 2021)

AMP was a cash cow that was turned into a pig.

They tried to sell the pig by dressing it up but there were no buyers. 

So now I think they are finally trying to get something going as a business. If the CEO is smart enough they may yet achieve something. A big if though.


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## Joules MM1 (10 June 2021)

@barney  must be encouraged to see this
stealth coiling auction








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## barney (10 June 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> @barney  must be encouraged to see this stealth coiling auction




Indeed @Joules MM1   If it were an  unloved .012 Spec, that Chart would certainly have my attention as an Accumulate  

I only own 286 Shares I think it is in AMP so I still need it to double so I can cash them in, lol 

Their Buy-Back certainly seems to be adding a bit of coal to the fire for anyone trading them at the moment

They have a $200 million BB limit with around $80 million still a possibility if I read the number correctly.

The Company obviously sees the recent price as the LOW.  Certainly looks low risk at face value given the current situation.


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## sptrawler (10 June 2021)

barney said:


> Indeed @Joules MM1   If it were an  unloved .012 Spec, that Chart would certainly have my attention as an Accumulate
> 
> I only own 286 Shares I think it is in AMP so I still need it to double so I can cash them in, lol
> 
> ...



It has to be a 4 bagger for anyone who bought in 3 years ago, to break even. 🤣

The crypto of 1998:
Right from its very first day as a listed company in 1998 following demutualisation – probably the most chaotic trading day in the ASX's history – when *AMP shares* opened at an astonishing $36.00 (about $20.00 *higher* than anyone had expected), traded up to a high of $45.00, before closing at $23.00, it has been in this

1998 = $45.00
2001= $14.00
2007=$10.00
2015= $6.70
2021=$1.20

Yep, sign me up.🤪 it can't get any worse than this, can it? That is the $64,000 question. There has to be better punts out there IMO.


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## Smurf1976 (10 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> It has to be a 4 bagger for anyone who bought in 3 years ago, to break even. 🤣



I bought in May. So far, so good, up 6% from entry.

I won't be holding it long term though, it's a trading opportunity and nothing more. So long as it goes up, I'll keep it with a reasonably tight stop set.


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## sptrawler (10 June 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I bought in May. So far, so good, up 6% from entry.
> 
> I won't be holding it long term though, it's a trading opportunity and nothing more. So long as it goes up, I'll keep it with a reasonably tight stop set.



I should, I could, I won't, burnt too hard last time.
They said they were going to clean up their act, when from memory, they separated from the U.K arm FFS
Can't build a bridge, can't get over it, want to punch someone, but can't find anyone with AMP on their forehead. 🤣
I'm sure they have value, same as IFL has value, just once bitten twice shy when retired.
I know it isn't a good basis for investment decisions, but when you have no recovery time, you are reluctant to be burnt twice.
I've actually found it a bit a flaw in my nature, I do tend to hang on to anger for too long and it does cloud your judgement.


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 July 2021)

AMP is a contrarian pick for me in the August ASF Stock competition. 

It has underperformed for decades but is about to get a new CEO and is close to $1 in value. If it goes below that it will be a take-over target. 

I reckon $1.40 - $1.80 will be enough for many holders to fold and get out. 

40-80% gain should win me the competition. 

gg


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## divs4ever (29 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Yeah, AU's big four have a pretty iron grip on things.
> 
> I remember when I think it was NAB that wanted to buy out/merge with AXA and wayne swan (it was of course subject to regulatory approval) torpedoed it in an attempt to get AMP to merge with them instead so AU would finally have a fifth big bank.
> 
> And, well, we now all know how well that plan went.



well AMP certainly behaved like a BIG bank  , i hope WS  is impressed with his achievement


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## rederob (29 July 2021)

Doctors were challenged.
One said brain surgery.
The other heart surgery.
Patient beyond saving:


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## Dona Ferentes (29 July 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> is close to $1 in value..



Mmm,  Price.... discovered.
Value ... hard to ascertain


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## Gunnerguy (29 July 2021)

When there's blood on the streets .......

I was caught by the falling knife about 2 years ago, hoping it would get better, but it didn't. Bailed about a year ago.

Gunnerguy.


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## divs4ever (30 July 2021)

AMP dragged to court again: 1,500 Aussies charged $600k​








						AMP dragged to court again: 1,500 Aussies charged $600k
					

The corporate watchdog has dragged AMP back to the courtroom, alleging it wrongfully charged thousands of Aussies. Find out what happened.




					au.finance.yahoo.com
				




 DYOR

 i do not hold this share ( but have in the past  )


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## xris (30 December 2021)

AMP: is One of my picks for the 2022 tipping Comp.
Share price is Pretty much at rock bottom, so the only direction is up.


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## brerwallabi (30 December 2021)

Seems to have made a double bottom, interesting to see if it gets up to clear $1.20.
It’s a tempting trade 20% gain or will it make a lower low?


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## xris (30 December 2021)

12 months is a long time in the stock market,
and there's no reason to believe that this one won't shrug off the back lash like other financial institutions have.
Granted the PROFITS of all major financial/lending institutions have dropped considerably since getting caught by the regulator and while AMP isn't in the same league as the 4 major banks  they are still reported  $177M  profit in 2021
compared to the  Billions (the other major banks)
WP:   $5.46B
ANZ: $6.16B
NAB: $6.36B
CBA: $8.65B


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## Craton (30 December 2021)

Plus, AMP has been investing in their banking and digital platforms. If AMP can deliver on "Our strategy" 2022 may indeed bear fruit and a higher SP. 
Outside of the big four, would M&A of other banks also be an option for growing AMP?


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## Smurf1976 (31 December 2021)

AMP is one of my picks for the 2022 tipping competition.

In short, it's simply a gamble really. 

The chart looks like it's plausibly running out of momentum to the downside and it's becoming a bit make or break really. If the company's not actually going broke, if it's going to remain a major player, then at some point it has to turn around.


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## frugal.rock (10 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> AMP is one of my picks for the 2022 tipping competition.
> 
> In short, it's simply a gamble really.
> 
> The chart looks like it's plausibly running out of momentum to the downside and it's becoming a bit make or break really. If the company's not actually going broke, if it's going to remain a major player, then at some point it has to turn around.



Well, I guess the market wasn't expecting a divvy going by today's reaction.

Price and volume today perhaps indicating that the market is accepting the "transformation" blurb. 

Heck, I'm even considering slotting 1000 shares away in the bottom drawer 🤒
I must be ill.
I won't pay more than $1 though...


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## Maelinar (10 February 2022)

Just sold it - took the cash and ran. Its still a good deal for a long-haul if it dips a little again in the next couple of days.


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## Maelinar (24 February 2022)

Maelinar said:


> Just sold it - took the cash and ran. Its still a good deal for a long-haul if it dips a little again in the next couple of days.



Actually its on my radar again, back under a buck - back to good value IMHO.


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2022)

A former financial, REIT and insurance behemoth. 

It has fallen on hard times from over $15 to under $1.00 now. 

Perhaps someone will take it over. 

Beware the Ides of March.

gg


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## Logique2 (28 February 2022)

They are pinning many hopes on the 2022 demerger.

AMP actually do a small selection of wealth creation things fairly well...Which they seem to be spinning off during mid-2022, into a separate entity.

The remaining base entity being mainly the banking, and i think superann./ platform advisory.

As a company, they've learnt some recent lessons. There's value to be unlocked here.

Yes they've destroyed shareholder value in recent times.  But I'd keep an eye on them in 2022...And yes they could be a target..


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## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A former financial, REIT and insurance behemoth.
> 
> It has fallen on hard times from over $15 to under $1.00 now.



Now that came as a shock !
 Last Price (AUD) $0.945 
Today's Change Down $0.015

All I can say is their attempts to become a 21stC entity were doomed

Now, this is going back a bit, but as an insurance outfit, they had the model down pat..... take in the money and contest it and shock horror if, heavens, they have to pay it out (to anyone but themselves). Reward the agents (first year's commission generally went to the agent on policies).
Then it all changed, but the corporate mentality didn't.
When the move came to financial services and that golden egg, superannuation, the old reward structure didn't, couldn't change. But these things only work if the 3 legs of the stool are equal; customers, employees, shareholders .... or mug investors/ commissioned agents/  management. But boy oh boy they had a good legal team.
And also, they sold off the wealth. All those premiums were cash on the books. That became a major holder of AUS corporate wealth, but they sold, sold, sold.
Try getting out of a Hillross setup. boy oh boy they had a good legal team.


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## sptrawler (28 February 2022)

Agree with you @Dona Ferentes absolute muppets, the only chance they have IMO, is to get completely out of super and work on their banking license options and whatever property assets they have left.
The superannuation space is going to get tougher not easier IMO, with ETF's having low management costs, LIC's with low management costs  and Industry funds only paying managers and having political connections, it is going to be a highly competitive space.
So IMO, there may be opportunities, but I have already done dough with them.
So I wont be getting back on the horse and wish everyone luck who tries riding it.
If they had spent as much time on trying to improve the business, as was spent on working out rorts, they would still be a great company.
Just my opinion.


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## qldfrog (1 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Agree with you @Dona Ferentes absolute muppets, the only chance they have IMO, is to get completely out of super and work on their banking license options and whatever property assets they have left.
> The superannuation space is going to get tougher not easier IMO, with ETF's having low management costs, LIC's with low management costs  and Industry funds only paying managers and having political connections, it is going to be a highly competitive space.
> So IMO, there may be opportunities, but I have already done dough with them.
> So I wont be getting back on the horse and wish everyone luck who tries riding it.
> ...



For super money, and this is valid as well for other for profit super, a switch to ALP is inevitable: (look how people like their dictators..if it was a Singapore or Russian style one, for the better of the country..or at least their belief, but we are talking Victoria,qld and now WA.)
So labor it will be and as a direct result, once we have a labour PM, industry funds will get a massive boost whereas i expect banks to become milking cows.
AMP could get its final stab then.
As always wait and see


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## StockyGuy (9 April 2022)

Had my eye on this one for a long time.  Last closed at $1.00.  Tempted to 'ave a go, but haven't yet.  Something innately appealing about owning part of 173 yr old Aussie business; but, jeez, this stock has been having a hard life this millennium.  So far has found good support around 90 cents.


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## Logique2 (10 April 2022)

Forum title: '_Stocks O-H_'.  Come on Joe, you can correct this, _'A_' before _'O'_..

Three Year monthly AMP chart, it looks alright to me.. ok, it's much more complicated than that,
 I get it, but I think that AMP management in 2022, now (at last) get's it too..


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## Joe Blow (10 April 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Forum title: '_Stocks O-H_'.  Come on Joe, you can correct this, _'A_' before _'O'_..




That's 0 to H, not O. At some point the ASX began to add numbers to ASX codes, so I had to insert them somewhere. I decided to turn A-H into 0-H to solve the problem.


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Forum title: '_Stocks O-H_'.  Come on Joe, you can correct this, _'A_' before _'O'_..
> 
> Three Year monthly AMP chart, it looks alright to me.. ok, it's much more complicated than that,
> I get it, but I think that AMP management in 2022, now (at last) get's it too..










gg


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## Ann (10 April 2022)

I think the long term weekly chart view says it all, no need for comment. Even at its current price, there is still no takeover bid.


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## divs4ever (10 April 2022)

AMP is in the process of an ongoing garage sale  ( not that it is unique currently  , even in banking/finance , sadly  )

 one might suggest the brand is so damaged  that there is no point chasing the 'goodwill premium ' ( that comes with a full take-over ) , so they are selling what they can 

now assuming you price a share ( partly ) on intrinsic value , AMP will most likely still slide  simply because of the shrinking assets


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## finicky (3 December 2022)

Not interested myself but makes a strong picture as a chart that has completed a base. A couple of pro commentators have mentioned it favourably lately: Henry Jennings and Greg Canavan.

Not Held

Daily


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## systematic (3 January 2023)

I've entered AMP into the 2023 yearly comp. finicky's post above probably tells the story best.
I don't think it's going to double, but I've no problem thinking it could catch a 40% move up, which would add 10% to the comp return.
Of course, it could end up being a value trap going to zero!


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