# CBH - CBH Resources



## brerwallabi (27 August 2004)

Fundamentals of this company appear very sound and it looks like it could be heading towards 24cps (current 19.5), some analysts are predicting 35 cents. It definately looks to me one do well over the next 12 months. The chart looks interesting and will be worth watching next week. Financials out today look OK too. Does anybody have anything negative on CBH?


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## RichKid (30 August 2004)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Hi there,

No negatives from me, I'm considering buying too- maybe at around 19c or just below. 

RichKid


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## brerwallabi (16 September 2004)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Annual report out today, I can only download the first 8 pages for some reason but what I have read so far looks good. It certainly had a good result (profit was previously annouced) in my books but hell I am no financial expert. I had previously anticipated CBH moving north and instead what does it do, it goes the other way. My descision was to hold, it closed today at 18cps hoping for a lift tomorrow its my pick in the comp as well. Zinc has had a slight hiccup lately however the outlook still looks good. Just tried again and still cant get the complete report ggggrrrr.


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## brerwallabi (27 September 2004)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

In a positive position (my pick) in the Sept stock pick comp for the first time. CBH has moved up from its support at 17.5cps to 19.5cps at close friday a nice jump with considerable volume. A lot of buyers there today a bit of a stand off at the momment, seems to have stalled at 19cps, I was hoping for a close above 20cps today. Still I long way to go to my target of 24cps this is one I will stay with as I feel it could push north any time.


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## brerwallabi (30 September 2004)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Looks to be knocking on the door of a nice run chart shows EMA crossover with good volume building. I think I would have been close to wiinning the Sept tipping comp if there were a few more days in the month


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## brerwallabi (19 December 2004)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Took advantage of CBH @ 17.5cps again, think they will make 21 -21.5cps again this is where the resistance has been. Do any tech experts see any other indicators coming into play?


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## tech/a (19 December 2004)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

B.

This stock is ranging.

Think your trading it the only way it should be traded at the moment.

IE.
Buying at the low of the range (use a tight stop like 17.0c in this case) and selling the high.
Hint;
You maybe lucky enough to be on an upward move that breaks out so to be sure that the stock isnt going to break resistance,sell on a downday after resistance comes into play.

tech


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## brerwallabi (22 January 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

This one was a beauty worked out exactly as I planned, sold out at 21.5cps, looks like it might reverse direction as per doji indications will look at re-entry again next week if it falls, as this may have a run with all the talk on possible zinc shortages down the track


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## brerwallabi (24 February 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Zinifex seems to be getting all the attention, but this little one is up 60% in just two months and looks like it might go higher still, probably this post should be on another thread somewhere, as an example of where you sell to soon and the thing keeps going through the roof - bought at 17.5, sold at 21.5, but i got my money and that was always my plan, since i have bought elsewhere and sorta doing nicely with the CBH money but would be a lot more in front if i had stayed on.


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## monoply (25 February 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Announced a .5 cent dividend after market close yesterday.


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## RichKid (18 March 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

CBH a bit weak, a buying opportunity? Closed at 30c and rejected lower prices, good volume, need more. Great leverage to Zinc and was trending well, might just have got ahead of itself. Let's see how it goes, may just be profit taking in Zinc stocks, noticed ZFX appeared to be reversing, could be the same for CBH but too early to call. Might just be a lower trend trajectory with general uptrend preserved, or a consolidation, who knows.


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## RichKid (10 April 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

CBH appears to be regaining previous trajectory, based on recovery in Zinc price (correction over??) imo and annct of recent Silver sale (see last week's annct). A congestion area coming up. A lot of activiity last week as volumes increased.

Brer, are you still folllowing this?


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## brerwallabi (16 April 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Rich, have been following it very closely, no longer hold, missed the run into the 30's, I had been in and out of this a few times last year and took another profit and was expecting to buy back at 18cps and the thing broke out, managed to get back in at 24.5cps and sold at 29cps, looks like it might be a buy again now, 32.5 looks very possible and even 35, the company is very healthy as well and I think undervalued at present price, have a look at its chart its very similar to Zinifex.


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## RichKid (4 May 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Rich, have been following it very closely, no longer hold, missed the run into the 30's, I had been in and out of this a few times last year and took another profit and was expecting to buy back at 18cps and the thing broke out, managed to get back in at 24.5cps and sold at 29cps, looks like it might be a buy again now, 32.5 looks very possible and even 35, the company is very healthy as well and I think undervalued at present price, have a look at its chart its very similar to Zinifex.




Brer,
I like it too but the general market sentiment and the poor Zinc price chart are having their say imo. Looking dangerously close to falling below support. Will be a bit hard to break through again without Zinc rallying strongly. Metals take their time, could be an end of year runner.


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## brerwallabi (4 May 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Looking forward to the next cycle, zinc still looks good to me just taking a breather, might take one too, if this one drops to 21ish then i'm back in, I have the patience to wait for it.


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## markrmau (27 June 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

I have been following this one for a month or so looking for the right time to buy. Looks like there was a bit of a fire sale this morning so I picked up 1/2 what I would like at 23.5c. As always I don't advocate bottom picking.


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## mime (27 June 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

I bought into this stock at $0.28 per share. It there is good demand for zinc and hopfully it'll show later in the share price.


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## brerwallabi (28 June 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Fundamentals of this company look good, it signalling almost buy to me, read my previous - 21ish and i'm buying, this i can afford to hold for a while, zinc, nickel and gold always a demand and there does not look an oversupply. A great little trading stock too but like anything buyer beware.


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## markrmau (29 June 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

GSBW have just down graded their zinc target because of the increase in LME stocks and suggest there could be another 60000t squirrelled away somewhere.

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=1503

Zinc spot price also seems to have tanked on the LME (over 2%)

Zinc prices for next year look a little better though.


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## brerwallabi (12 August 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

CBH closed at .29 today, I have been trading this for quite a while, I got back on @.24 cant see any reason why this wont get to circa .35, bit of a spurt at the end of the day today and a bit of volume the last few days also finished higher  every day the last four days and the zinc business is starting to look good again. Anybody else have any thoughts on how high this could go and a divended slso on the cards?


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## el_ninj0 (13 August 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> CBH closed at .29 today, I have been trading this for quite a while, I got back on @.24 cant see any reason why this wont get to circa .35, bit of a spurt at the end of the day today and a bit of volume the last few days also finished higher  every day the last four days and the zinc business is starting to look good again. Anybody else have any thoughts on how high this could go and a divended slso on the cards?




I would have to agree brerwallabi, good time to buy imo. I cant see it coming down from this new run any time soon. I think i should hit around 35cps, mabey even 40 this time. Either way, you'll stand to make a good 20% on your money atleast. I'd sell out at 34. Happy trading.


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## kosher (4 October 2005)

*CBH*

does any1 know anything about cbh?


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## RichKid (20 October 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

For some reason this little co is finding it hard to breakthrough 30c, really doing the hard yards now after making a spectacular breakout sometime ago. I've been scanning quite a few stocks recently to see how they're coping with the dowturn, CBH has been sluggish for the last few months.


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## RichKid (7 November 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Big falls ON VOLUME, which means big holders are exiting imo. Price has just about halved in the past few months. Not over yet by the chart, lots of red.
Maybe we'll see another range play Brer?


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## brerwallabi (7 November 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Big falls ON VOLUME, which means big holders are exiting imo. Price has just about halved in the past few months. Not over yet by the chart, lots of red.
> Maybe we'll see another range play Brer?




Rich
Will be watching closely tomorrow a big white engulfing candle, could signal a reversal, if it opens lower, still might be a bit of selling pressure, I might be in like Flynn.30 cents definately not on the cards but looks like 24 cents could be a possibilty.


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## mime (9 November 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Yeah what happened to the stock price??


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## brerwallabi (9 November 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Well its a mining stock and its disappointed I am sure you know why. The thing is there is always a trading opportunity, I feel myself only me myself I that this will eventually go back to the highs of previous but definately quite a while I AM WATCHING THIS VERY CLOSELY but I cant advise but I WILL TRADE IT when the opportunity is there. Will let you all know. I do not hold.


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## brerwallabi (10 November 2005)

*Re: CBH Resources (CBH) a tidy little company*

Missed it and it went back up to 18.5 ah well, I think I know the bottom now.


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## 77TRADER77 (5 February 2006)

*CBH -CBH RESOURCES LIMITED*

 This is interesting stock..Written up in Aust Financial Review Mkt Watch Thurs
have a cave in and stock goes up
Recently drilled two holes in January according to partner site PTS (50% interest) and Merryl Lynch Nominees recorded as having ten percent of each ,
now trading suspended ..pending wednesday announcement by ASX.
Should I buy more or sell?


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## Joe Blow (5 February 2006)

*Re: CBH -CBH RESOURCES LIMITED*



			
				77TRADER77 said:
			
		

> Should I buy more or sell?




Hi 77TRADER77,

Just thought I'd let you know that we do not allow members to ask for specific buy or sell advice on particular stocks, as any response to this request may be considered the provision of financial advice according to ASIC guidelines. Financial advice can only be provided by licensed financial advisors.

You may, of course, ask for people's opinions on this - or any other - stock.


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## Bobby (5 February 2006)

*Re: CBH -CBH RESOURCES LIMITED*



			
				77TRADER77 said:
			
		

> This is interesting stock..Written up in Aust Financial Review Mkt Watch Thurs
> have a cave in and stock goes up
> Recently drilled two holes in January according to partner site PTS (50% interest) and Merryl Lynch Nominees recorded as having ten percent of each ,
> now trading suspended ..pending wednesday announcement by ASX.
> Should I buy more or sell?




Hold ! -Why CBH will be seeking more capital for a reason !.
The announcement will tell you why (think I can guess ).  

Bob.


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## mime (2 March 2006)

What's everyones opinons of this stocks long term prospects?


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## brerwallabi (4 March 2006)

If CBH gets back on track and shows the market that it can produce its predictions, this well could be rerated. It is still a long way off from recovering to where it was before the mine collapse. Remember however what the price of zinc is today compared tp 12 months ago and then consider the PEM share price up times 3 over 9 months, KZL up times 2.5 over similar period, and CBH has gone nowhere. Full production and the price of zinc equates to CBH being 75cents in my book.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 April 2006)

CBH heavily undervalued Zinc Player!!!!!!!!

Just bought today nearly $50k worth,


3rd Qtr Report should be out by friday, 

Its one of the four major Zinc producers but its the smallest,

should be $1 by June!!!!!


Will post up more properly soon, along with an excel valuation


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## porkpie324 (26 April 2006)

i have held cbh a few times, sold on last rally at .46c. looking at them lately there's lots of sellors, i hope the last post is right,cbh is a favorite of mine but i think i'll wait till the breakout. porkpie


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## michael_selway (26 April 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> CBH heavily undervalued Zinc Player!!!!!!!!
> 
> Just bought today nearly $50k worth,
> 
> ...




Cool thx, yeah just the recent prodction blowout affected them this year 2006 as you can see, but hopefully they can rectify ASAP and get to full capacity

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.4 -2.3 9.8 9.5 
DPS 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 

thx

MS


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 April 2006)

Yeah collapse of mine was a bad for company, but they should have moved on by now, 

I reckon they will produce around 80k t Zn during 06/07 @ cash cost of probably 20c they will be having huge margins!

They also have 2-3 more projects in the pipe line, along with JV with Tech Cominco (Worlds Largest Zinc Producer) 

All up about 750m shares (600m + 100m Conv notes) 

750m @ 50c = $375m

I have rough EPS of 15c for them once production back in full swing @ 8x per = $1.40

Expect Big things!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 April 2006)

Forgot to add the reason I have just been watching is the stock hit some heavy resistance between 47c - 52c lots of selling, especially around 49c-52c, so I was happy to sit back and wait for a possible drift lower,

However Zinc has been hiting records highs lately and has helped the stock hold around 47c (a low of 44c few days back) this combined with the fact that CBH always releases its qtrly 1 month after the end ie End March qtr = release in April, means that its qtrly is due out in the next 2 days, ie Thurs/Fri

I expect to see a good recovery from the mine collapse showing strong Zinc production, along with further advancements of its other 2-3 projects.

So wasn't prepared to wait,


As stated will get an excel sheet done soon
Cheers


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 April 2006)

Here is a very rough Excel sheet I have created for it,

Has my target range = 80c - $1.20 for its Endeavour Project alone, once it reaches full production,

Its Sulphur Springs should add alot of extra cash, 

Haven't had time to check for errors, 
If you see any give me a shout,

Cheers Chaps!


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## brerwallabi (27 April 2006)

Back into CBH for $19k, I am now thinking about the $1.20's. I might be being a bit conservative here.
Hoping this jumps again when we have some further knowledge of progress re back towards full production.
SRI has commenced drilling at Kangaroo Caves which is funded by CBH. Kangaroo Caves lays next to Sulphur Springs and the drilling is to firm up resources.
SRI ema's all pointing upwards gone from 5cps to 7cps since start of the month this will also benifit CBH as well.


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## RichKid (27 April 2006)

From a TA point of view this appears to be a triangle but it could become a flag too. Some selling on Wednesday on notable/high volume so let's see what happens today, general pattern is accumulation at these lower levels, some supply left at near highs. Maybe people are nervous about the report and taking profits....or maybe they're just taking profits! I first heard of this as a Fat prophets pick but have to admit I didn't follow it too closely although Brer has been keeping an eye on it for awhile. Looks good now if it can breakout to new highs.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (27 April 2006)

Anyone spot any errors on my excel sheet?

Please point out, cheers,



Also Richie Rich (Rich Kid   )  I see a flag, consolidating before continuing strong uptrend and hopefully qtryl release is just whats needed!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (27 April 2006)

I think 49c  - 52c has so much sell depth because few months back about 100m shares were issued @ 26c so 49c - 52c is about 100% profit for those who took @ 26c, so once passed, it'll reach for the sky!


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## nizar (27 April 2006)

YT i been watching also for a while, seems to be some resistance at 45-50c...

Need to overcome that, then IMO it will run hard..

Broker consensus eps for 2007 is 9.8cps... this was done after half-yearly when zinc spot price was us$1.00/lb... plus u have exploration upside from their JVs...Exploration in CObar Basin, Panorama JV and Napier JV can only add to the upside, then uv got broken hill as well...

Toho ZInc the largest shareholder with 25%, then ANZ, National, JP Morgan and Westpac CUstodians all in the top10...

Toho ZInc, largest zinc producer in japan, listed on nikkei, in the last yr sp tripled....

So its trading at 5x forward 2007 earnings, id say $1 easy...

If it wasnt for the cave-in, we already would be there...

That was unfortunate, for illustrates how crucial it is to diversify operational and production risk - SS will do just that, and it will increase zinc production by 50%..

Ill be looking to get in soon, i dunno about $50k though, lol...

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/060405/18/n3qs.html

Short-term, i think the share price will be supported by:
1. rising zinc spot price
2. open pit resource base reserve based on resource model will be completed very soon... they said "in the next few weeks" in their 2/03/06 announcement
3. BFS for SS completed by mid-year


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 April 2006)

Damn, original buy order was sitting @ 41c, yesterday I thought, hmm stock hasn't broken below 45c, is in a 'flag' phase, so shouldn't go much lower and qtrly should be out, so I bumped order up to 47c,

Should have waited, could have saved myself $6k in buying them,

Oh well, excellent buying for new buyers


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## coladuna (28 April 2006)

I got in at .420, although my order was set at .430.
Pretty happy with the price.
Any explanations on why it went down so much all of a sudden this morning apart from general market mood?


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## RichKid (28 April 2006)

coladuna said:
			
		

> I got in at .420, although my order was set at .430.
> Pretty happy with the price.
> Any explanations on why it went down so much all of a sudden this morning apart from general market mood?




My guess, China interest rate rise and effect on metals, or maybe quarterly report has bad news.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 April 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> My guess, China interest rate rise and effect on metals, or maybe quarterly report has bad news.




I watched it happen, general market mood took it to this weeks support level of 45c any lower and it would 'break' the 'flag' a samll 25k order sold @ 44.5c and then I saw snowball panic!

Although qtrly is not out yet, given production disruption, anything above 10k t of Zinc will be a damn good recovery!


Stock needs to close around 46c to keep flag intact!

So many nervous sellers!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 April 2006)

Well recovery is taking alot longer than expected, with full production not expected until Sep 2006,


Still Sulphur Springs looks to have huge potential,
13.8Mt @ 3.7% Zn + 1.4% Cu + 21g/t Ag
= 0.5Mt Zn + 200kt Cu + 10m oz's Ag 
Gross Value = Over $4b AUD @ todays spots! 

As does Broken Hill
9.2Mt @ 4.1% Zn + 2.8% Pb + 31g/t Ag
= 370kt Zn + 250kt Pb + 10m Oz's Ag
Gross Value = Close on $2b AUD @ today's Spots


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## coladuna (28 April 2006)

SP has been struggling around .425-.430 mark all day.
Hopefully, it'll recover a bit before the market closes.


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## michael_selway (28 April 2006)

coladuna said:
			
		

> I got in at .420, although my order was set at .430.
> Pretty happy with the price.
> Any explanations on why it went down so much all of a sudden this morning apart from general market mood?




Zinc prices plunged over night, that was the main factor i think

thx

MS


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## brerwallabi (29 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Zinc prices plunged over night, that was the main factor i think
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



Zinc just having that little correction similar to when it fell below $1.00 a lb earlier this year before its next step up.


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## nizar (29 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Zinc just having that little correction similar to when it fell below $1.00 a lb earlier this year before its next step up.




Yesterday zinc fell by 4%, this is day-to-day movements, not a correction..

The correction earlier in the year was not by any means little: it fell from 1.08 to 89c, thats more than 17% and very significant...

Zinc has already recovered, currently up 3.6%...


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## Kipp (29 April 2006)

coladuna said:
			
		

> SP has been struggling around .425-.430 mark all day.
> Hopefully, it'll recover a bit before the market closes.



Yeah, all the Zn boys got punished today, TZN, ZFX... you're not alone...


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## brerwallabi (29 April 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Yesterday zinc fell by 4%, this is day-to-day movements, not a correction..
> 
> The correction earlier in the year was not by any means little: it fell from 1.08 to 89c, thats more than 17% and very significant...
> 
> Zinc has already recovered, currently up 3.6%...




Zinc dropped by 8c per lb it has not dropped anything like that since February and was the second biggest drop in 12 months. Its great to see its going back up tonight.


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## coladuna (2 May 2006)

Was a pretty good day for the stock. Any comments?


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## michael_selway (2 May 2006)

coladuna said:
			
		

> Was a pretty good day for the stock. Any comments?




I think its a great Zinc producer stock, low fwd PE (good growth)

However just this FY 2006, is a loss, because of production problems. Whether it will spill over to later periods and by how much who knows. But they have said full production by Sep 2006 Quarter recently

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.4 -2.3 9.8 9.5 
DPS 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 

thx

MS


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## kitehigh (5 May 2006)

Making a good come back today up 8% to 47.5.  Haven't seen any news about this stock either, so must just be the positive sentiment driving it higher along with the rest of the market.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (5 May 2006)

Or it could just be the fact that today is the RBC second Annual Zinc conference being held in Syd,

CBH is most probably presenting, just haven't released their presentation yet,

To see what I'm on about check PEM's ann today


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## michael_selway (5 May 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Or it could just be the fact that today is the RBC second Annual Zinc conference being held in Syd,
> 
> CBH is most probably presenting, just haven't released their presentation yet,
> 
> To see what I'm on about check PEM's ann today




yep and also zinc prices jumped overnight

Also updated forecasts

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.4 -2.3 11.4 10.8 
DPS 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 


thx

MS


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## coladuna (5 May 2006)

Wow, what a day for this stock.
I know price of zinc rose overnight but does that justify increase of more than 10% in one day? I was surprised because there was no other siginificant ann released either. Not that I'm complaining.


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## nizar (5 May 2006)

earnings have been upgraded for 11.4cps in 2007

all zincers seem to be trading on very low pe for 2007 forward earnings

cbh: 4.4x
zfx: 5.4x
kzl: 7.8x
pem: 4.6x

and what price have analysts use to calculate 2007 forecast earnings, probably $1.00/lb... so any suprise will be to the UPSIDE...


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## michael_selway (5 May 2006)

coladuna said:
			
		

> Wow, what a day for this stock.
> I know price of zinc rose overnight but does that justify increase of more than 10% in one day? I was surprised because there was no other siginificant ann released either. Not that I'm complaining.




Actually it is because of the Zinc Price about 5% increase on LME overnight, thus nearly most of the below rose alot today

Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH , OXR 
Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL

Nizar, actually they updated alot of consensus forecasts today, see below

*CBH* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.4 -2.3 11.4 10.8 
DPS 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 

*PEM* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -2.8 32.1 68.3 54.6 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0 

*ZFX* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 166.0 219.0 156.5 
DPS 4.0 36.5 50.0 29.0 

*KZL* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 20.7 55.9 40.1 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

*OXR* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 24.2 16.1 15.1 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0 


thx

MS


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## RichKid (5 May 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Actually it is because of the Zinc Price increase on LME, thus nearly most of the below rose alot today
> 
> Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH , OXR
> Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL
> ...




Thanks guys for these great posts on metals, very helpful guides, much appreciated. I note there was some resistance, as expected, at the old highs for CBH, might see some consolidation before the next breakout, all depends on Zinc price over the weekend imo.


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## nizar (5 May 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Actually it is because of the Zinc Price about 5% increase on LME overnight, thus nearly most of the below rose alot today
> 
> Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH , OXR
> Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL
> ...





yes i noticed MS but i thought it was updated after the quarterly reports

OXR 15.1cps earnings for 2008

WAT A JOKE

Thats when prominent hill will come and double gold production and add a considerable amount of copper also...

Haha.. yeh 15.1... we'll see about that...


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## Kipp (5 May 2006)

coladuna said:
			
		

> Wow, what a day for this stock.
> I know price of zinc rose overnight but does that justify increase of more than 10% in one day? I was surprised because there was no other siginificant ann released either. Not that I'm complaining.




Just remember, that a 2% increase in price can mean a 10% increase in profits (cause you have to factor in operating costs). e.g. if operating costs were $1.00/lb, a price increase from $1.50 to $1.55 would be a 10% increase in profit margin.

Well, all the Zn players had a nice run today... but none as strong as CBH- good luck to those that bought in in the low 40's...


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## kgee (8 May 2006)

A nice breakout ...let's hope the poz holds strong


----------



## michael_selway (8 May 2006)

kgee said:
			
		

> A nice breakout ...let's hope the poz holds strong




Yeah unconfirmed rumours of takeover from another forum?

but not sure yeah

thx

MS


----------



## Kipp (8 May 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I have rough EPS of 15c for them once production back in full swing @ 8x per = $1.40
> 
> Expect Big things!



Damn YT- don't you get sick of always being right!!!    (CBH, BMO, TZN<, SMY...)  You're fast overtaking the chicken and Richo as the new ASF guru.

Guess your CBH buy in at 46c don't look so bad after all...


----------



## tech/a (8 May 2006)

Bought today also at 53c.
Expecting 65.5c from Measured Move Analysis.
Stop 49.5c


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (8 May 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Damn YT- don't you get sick of always being right!!!    (CBH, BMO, TZN<, SMY...)  You're fast overtaking the chicken and Richo as the new ASF guru.
> 
> Guess your CBH buy in at 46c don't look so bad after all...





  :


----------



## kgee (8 May 2006)

Hey Michael did the other forum suggest who might be the interested takeover party?


----------



## RichKid (8 May 2006)

kgee said:
			
		

> Hey Michael did the other forum suggest who might be the interested takeover party?




My take on it, but would be good to hear from Michael if there's somethign concrete: Imo it might have been pure speculation after Teck Cominco's bid today for Inco but CBH is a great little co by all reports. Not sure if that necessarily means there's a concrete offer in the works from anyone. The relevant sector/industry normally gets a bit of a boost when there are predators chomping around.


----------



## michael_selway (8 May 2006)

kgee said:
			
		

> Hey Michael did the other forum suggest who might be the interested takeover party?




ZFX I believe, but I think its BS at this stage   

btw metals down atm, breather tommrrow

http://www.kitcometals.com

thx

MS


----------



## emma (9 May 2006)

Tech A:"Bought today also at 53c.
Expecting 65.5c from Measured Move Analysis.
Stop 49.5c"

Could you please explain?  I've done a couple of couple of price projections but they don't match - (I hold CBH).


----------



## tech/a (9 May 2006)

Currently at the office but its simply a measurement from last trough to last peak added to the bottom of the latest trough in this move.

I'll post the chart tonight.


----------



## kgee (9 May 2006)

Apparently Hartley's has a report that values CBH at $2.29 a share on spot prices....I haven't confirmed this yet


----------



## michael_selway (9 May 2006)

kgee said:
			
		

> Apparently Hartley's has a report that values CBH at $2.29 a share on spot prices....I haven't confirmed this yet




really how did they get that? and what PE/EPS at $2.29

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (9 May 2006)

MS u must be taking another look at CBH or be holding by now surely?

I dont know what it is with broker forecasts, it seems they do not factor in non-producing mines into their forecasts... which means if Sulfur Springs does go though and add 65ktonnes copper and 75ktonnes of zinc as per forecasts, then surely earnings in 2008 will be MUCH HIGHER than forecasted...

Maybe they are waiting for BFS to be completed in June/July, i wonder what the sp will be by then...

Similar situation with Prominent Hill and Oxiana.. 2008 earnings lower than 2007!! ... they will earn maybe 45cps in 2008 if metal prices stay at current levels...

For CBH I reckon $1+ by the end of this year surely, it will be the first to double from here out of ZFX and KZL and PEM imo...


----------



## kgee (9 May 2006)

Michael I just checked the report on their website
http://www.cms.cbhresources.com.au/shops/cbhresources/catalogue/c9
Their current valuation is at 54 cents and 58 if the convertible notes are not redeemed... the 2.29 is at spot prices.
Check it out.
Some believe that Hartley's are conservative.


----------



## tech/a (9 May 2006)

Measured move


----------



## nizar (9 May 2006)

kgee said:
			
		

> Michael I just checked the report on their website
> http://www.cms.cbhresources.com.au/shops/cbhresources/catalogue/c9
> Their current valuation is at 54 cents and 58 if the convertible notes are not redeemed... the 2.29 is at spot prices.
> Check it out.
> Some believe that Hartley's are conservative.




UBS forecast zinc prices to average $1.65 in 2006 and $1.85 in 2007

Some stocks take years for their value to be realised though...


----------



## michael_selway (11 May 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> For CBH I reckon $1+ by the end of this year surely, it will be the first to double from here out of ZFX and KZL and PEM imo...




Yeah it might, depends on zinc prices/LME supplies and whether they can get into full production as forecasted in Sep 06 Quarter

Out of those 4, imo in terms of reliability (risk) and potential

ZFX, PEM, KZL, CBH in order

But yeah these 4 are crazy not to have, should have at least one of them imo

thx

MS


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 May 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> CBH heavily undervalued Zinc Player!!!!!!!!
> 
> Just bought today nearly $50k worth,
> 
> ...





hmmmmm can it reach $1 by June still ? ? ? 
I am not sure, but if it does       , if not June probably Sept


----------



## nizar (11 May 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> hmmmmm can it reach $1 by June still ? ? ?
> I am not sure, but if it does       , if not June probably Sept




YT look at their website, there is a report from Hartleys valuing CBH at $2.29 on current spot prices..

Zinc and Copper are NOT at their highs IMO...

Nice to see zinc moving, was at 1.45-1.55 for a while, now smashed through 1.60... we know that when zinc runs, it can run (how quick was it from 89c to 1.40! the 2nd time around after the correction from 1.08 to 89c).... IMO zinc spot price maybe will be $2 by october when zinc LME supplies become very stretched...


----------



## zoo (12 May 2006)

cbh will open the old Sth Mine..previously MMM in Broken Hill. Approx 6 weeks time things will start to happen, using the decline and going over areas that havent really been worked a lot before as well. Visco Sulicich will be named the man in charge, fair to say that Vince Gauci, former head of MIM has been somewhat of a mentor figure to Sulicich over the years. Core samples are apparently good and with todays zinc prices, its a no brainer. This has been confirmed by two sources now, so its a goer and not just speculation..yep, I hold cbh...but as always, do your own sums guys. Cheers.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (12 May 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> YT look at their website, there is a report from Hartleys valuing CBH at $2.29 on current spot prices..
> 
> Zinc and Copper are NOT at their highs IMO...
> 
> Nice to see zinc moving, was at 1.45-1.55 for a while, now smashed through 1.60... we know that when zinc runs, it can run (how quick was it from 89c to 1.40! the 2nd time around after the correction from 1.08 to 89c).... IMO zinc spot price maybe will be $2 by october when zinc LME supplies become very stretched...





CBH is one of my big holds in portfolio, about 1/5th, so any rise towards $1 will be good, but I think its got so much more, like the hartley's valuation shows, at current spots $2+ well Zinc is almost  @ $4000 US/t!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As with copper the higher Zinc goes, the more rapid it rises will be, unlike copper Zinc's fundamentals are much much better


----------



## zoo (12 May 2006)

sorry guys, I should have said Sulicich is rumoured to have been approached to run the show....


----------



## makeorbreak (16 May 2006)

I have owned this stock since just before it tumbled to 6 cents and I still own it. I am now back in the black and considering throwing an additional $50K on it.

The drop in zinc prices over the past week has got me **** scared. BUt this stock is so undervalued I just hope things are going to get brighter. - SOON!


----------



## zoo (16 May 2006)

If your holding for longer term, imho you will be on a stock that will run very well. Lots in the pipeline, yes it has run hard from 20 odd cents. Use this weeks trading action as a learning tool, see how cbh handles it along with other similar coys.I sold but will look for lower entry levels.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 May 2006)

$30m funding from Zinc offtake to fund Brokenhill and Sulphur Springs you say?


$1.80 by October this year you say YT?

The next PEM/KZL/TZN type run up you say?

Whos listening


----------



## michael_selway (17 May 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> $30m funding from Zinc offtake to fund Brokenhill and Sulphur Springs you say?
> 
> 
> $1.80 by October this year you say YT?
> ...




really $1.80 in 5 months how come?

also u left out ZFX in that list above   

In the recent annoucement does it benefit ZFX in a way? or is it already been accounted for?

thx

MS


----------



## kr1zh (18 May 2006)

CBH Resources was down 2.5 ¢ to 48 ¢ and Triako Resources was up 35 ¢ to $1.72. Base metal miner CBH has made an off-market takeover offer for exploration and investment company Triako.

quote from AFR.com


----------



## kgee (18 May 2006)

adding gold to their resources...just more meat in the sandwich!!!


----------



## boults_4545 (22 May 2006)

Down nearly 16% so far today, Any thoughts on where the bottom is? Is this likely to have anything to do with the take over?


----------



## makeorbreak (22 May 2006)

I reckon it has something to do with the falling zinc Price.
hoping for turnaround soon


----------



## Warren Buffet II (22 May 2006)

Another shock session for this stock, 15% down and will keep going down. Copper and Zinc down again today 3% to 4%.

I understand that some people prefer to invest in the very long term (Those are the ones that are not actively interested in this kind of forums as they do not care for the price and they are based on fundamentals) but there are people that invest in the short term and post everyday any change of the price (If they didn't have an stop price to avoid loses, they are in big trouble now). It is very likely this share will drop another 10 to 20% soon (tomorrow maybe up 4% next day maybe down 15%)

Stay tune for more entertainment. 

WBII


----------



## nizar (22 May 2006)

I personally think the take-over was badly timed

If endevour  catastrophe didnt happened, and they were flood with cash, then yeh, why not...

But all this take-over will do is eat into their cash and make them move NEGATIVE eps for this year.. TKR still a long, long way away from production

Just my thoughts...


----------



## michael_selway (22 May 2006)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Another shock session for this stock, 15% down and will keep going down. Copper and Zinc down again today 3% to 4%.
> 
> I understand that some people prefer to invest in the very long term (Those are the ones that are not actively interested in this kind of forums as they do not care for the price and they are based on fundamentals) but there are people that invest in the short term and post everyday any change of the price (If they didn't have an stop price to avoid loses, they are in big trouble now). It is very likely this share will drop another 10 to 20% soon (tomorrow maybe up 4% next day maybe down 15%)
> 
> ...




Yeah the thing is theres too many people on margin lending, bascially gambling everything to become rich, thus for them the need to quickly get out otherwise they will be in deep trouble. but these should only be a limited few

thx

MS


----------



## zoo (23 May 2006)

Just be patient guys, we all have been looking at recent share price strength as if it was the norm, well its not. CBH bolted from 20c area and will need to rebase around the high 20s imho. Great learning curve and brings everyone back to reality....the cheaper it gets the better it gets, so look on corrections as a good thing.....patience and trusting your investment style is the key. Cheers...30c would be awesome longtermer.


----------



## brerwallabi (23 May 2006)

CBH was around the high 20's many many moons ago before the mine collapse and when zinc was $0.65 a lb. At full production and the current supply/demand situation taken into account it must rank a $1.00 plus so anything picked up at these current prices will see your money doubled at least in my opinion, so buy now or try to get in lower I am not sure. Well charts are out the window right now but I believe I have worked out some buys to hold onto to make the most of the coming resource recovery and CBH is one I will be holding.
And to think I sold CBH.


----------



## michael_selway (24 May 2006)

another annoucement from CBH, so many in recent weeks

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060524/pdf/3wwgr0shg4xsv.pdf



> CBH Resources Limited has reached an agreement in principle which subject successful negotiation of detailed joint venture arrangements and final CBH Board approval will see the company become a joint venture partner with WRF Securities Ltd in the Constance Range Iron Ore Project.
> 
> It is proposed that, CBH will earn an initial 30% interest in the joint venture by paying $1 million in CBH shares plus $200,000 in cash and by completing the project prefeasibility study over a period of two years at an expected cost of $2 million.
> 
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## kgee (25 May 2006)

I listened to the directors speech on boardroom radio earlier this month...He was asked how they would go about not becoming a takeover target...his reply "growth"
well they're growing and diversifying
For those interested Fat Prophets remain bullish on commodites ,Nickel,Iron and zinc in particular (fundamentals) and even went as far to say they see gold hitting a $1000 before the end of the year


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## michael_selway (28 May 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Actually it is because of the Zinc Price about 5% increase on LME overnight, thus nearly most of the below rose alot today
> 
> Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH , OXR
> Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL
> ...




An Update anc compare

*CBH* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.4 -2.3 11.4 10.8 
DPS 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 

*PEM* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -2.8 34.1 57.9 47.4 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0 

*ZFX* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 184.9 279.5 162.8 
DPS 4.0 37.5 50.0 30.0 

*KZL* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 17.6 64.0 41.7 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

*OXR* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 32.2 21.4 16.0 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0 

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (28 May 2006)

ZFX continues to amaze me

Its rise has been meteoric but EARNINGS HAVE BEEN RISING FASTER STILL!


----------



## samsterchan (30 May 2006)

*CBH on the rise !*

CBH is looking good .....

Interesting article attached

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=5164

This company is going places with the takeover of Triako Resources, its multi-faceted mining resources, latest one of which is iron ore.

What are the chances of this company being a takeover target itself with Endeavor, Sulphur Springs to name a few.

All it needs now is to find uranium !


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (1 June 2006)

A Pilbara native title claim group has completed the signing of three mining agreements in one day, a landmark achievement in native title negotiations.

The Njamal native title group reached agreements with *CBH Resources Ltd*, Consolidated Minerals Ltd and individual miner, Barry Kayes. Njamal were represented in all three agreements by the Pilbara Native Title Service (PNTS), part of the Yamatji Marlpa Barna Baba Maaja Aboriginal Corporation (YMBBMAC).

Njamal people representative and deputy chairperson of the PNTS Steering Committee Doris Eaton said that its working group had been negotiating with mining companies for many years and had reached many agreements. 

*The CBH-Njamal agreement concerns the Sulphur Springs project, an open-cut copper and zinc mine and processing plant located 160km southeast of Port Hedland and inside Njamal country. * 
The agreement has a range of provisions including a financial settlement, employment and training initiatives and undertakings in the areas of heritage and environmental protection. 



Just wait for the re-rating!


----------



## kgee (1 June 2006)

lots of news coming out from these guys lately...I hope they can get sulphur springs operational before 08 and that metal prices haven't crashed...a one year payback at current prices almost sounds too good to be true


----------



## kgee (22 June 2006)

Sinosteel spreads wings 

Ben Sharples
Wednesday, June 21, 2006

CHINA'S largest importer of iron ore, Sinosteel, is spreading its wings into Australia's base metals sector and is seeking investment or off-take opportunities to supply concentrate to smelters in China, with CBH Resources and Jubilee Mines touted as potential partners.



Sinosteel Australia managing director Cui Xiaofei 

Sinosteel Australia managing director Xiaofei Cui told MiningNews.net the company was in discussions with four "end of users" and had signed exclusive agreements with two copper and zinc smelters to supply concentrate from Australian sources.

The two smelters have a combined total annual output of 160,000 tonnes of copper metal and 300,000t of zinc metal. 

Cui said the two smelters currently procure their raw materials mainly from the spot market but with capacity expansions being planned, they were aiming to secure a stable supply of concentrate feedstock.

On the supply front, Cui said the company was in discussions with zinc producer CBH Resources in regards to securing zinc and copper concentrate.

"CBH Resources are preparing an information memorandum, once that is ready we'll talk a deal with them," he said.

However, CBH managing director Bob Besley told MNn the company was in preliminary discussions with a whole range of people but nothing was firm at this stage.

Besley said any possible off-take agreements would involve the Sulphur Springs copper-zinc-silver development in Western Australia (currently the focus of feasibility studies) because all of the production out of its mainstay Endeavour mine in New South Wales was "pretty well tied up".

Sulphur Springs is being planned as a 1.25 million tonne per annum mining and processing operation producing a 75,000tpa zinc concentrate (grading 53% zinc) and a 65,000tpa copper concentrate (grading 25% copper).

On the nickel front, Cui said the company was in early discussions in regards to supplying Anshan Iron & Steel, China's second-largest stainless steel producer, with nickel concentrate from Australian sources.

Cui said he had met with Jubilee Mines executive chairman Kerry Harmanis two weeks ago but said "it is very initial stages".

Sinosteel has been busy on the WA iron ore front, signing memorandums of understanding with Jupiter Mines and Cape Lambert Iron Ore earlier this year, and forming a JV with iron ore producer Midwest last October.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (22 June 2006)

Read that a few days ago, what suprises me is how rapidly Sino Steel is expanding out of main stay Iron Ore Sector, to the broader base metals market, is China that desperate for base metals?


----------



## michael_selway (25 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> An Update anc compare
> 
> *CBH* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...




An Update

*CBH* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.4 -2.3 14.3 23.4 
DPS 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 

*PEM* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -2.8 38.8 70.9 60.5 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0 

*ZFX* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 188.6 286.0 200.5 
DPS 4.0 40.0 50.0 55.0 

*KZL* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 19.4 62.3 51.0 
DPS -- 0.0 1.5 0.0 

*OXR* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 33.2 22.8 21.1 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.5 



> *Date: 22/6/2006
> Author: John Wasiliev
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 27*
> 
> Pairs trading is a useful technique for investors in contracts for difference (CFDs) when the sharemarket is volatile. Man Financial's Richard Avery-Wright says it works because it is based on the relationship between two stocks rather than market trends. It can be applied where there is an historical pattern: one share outstrips another, then the other share catches up. The idea is to take a long position in the stock that catches up and short sell the other. In May 2006, Avery-Wright says Zinifex and BHP Billiton provided a "classic" example of this type of behaviour




thx

MS


----------



## kgee (25 June 2006)

Hey Michael do you know what figures theyr'e using for price of zinc???


----------



## Sean K (28 June 2006)

Looks like CBH ducking for it's next support level at around .28/.30c.

Will be good to get on board at this price I reckon. Looks like it has some great projects.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 July 2006)

All CBH holders who were unfortunate enough to get caught with their pants down (the recent correction) do not fret,

As predicted Zinc stock piles have been decreasing at what is a near linear alarming rate, as a result the Zinc Spot price has been moving up strongly, well above the $1.50 mark to around $1.55 - $1.60

This company is so undervalued on its fundamentals its not even funny, 

With well over 15 years mine life at Endeavour with the recent Trikao acquisition increasing that to probably 20+ years, as well as BFS due for Sulphur Springs and development of the Broken Hill CML7 'Rasp Mine' this company has big things set,

06/07 Will be the cash generation year, Analysts including Patersons, Hartleys and even Commsec place CBH to earn 14cps in 07 and 25cps in 08 which puts it currently on less than 3x PER of 07 and 1.5x PER of 08

In 2-3 years this will be the next OXR!!!!!


----------



## porkpie324 (11 July 2006)

Young trader, i certainly hope your right, i managed to sell out of oxr close to its top (pure luck), since then have been accumalating cbh,porkpie


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 July 2006)

Keep the faith my friend, 

Also CBH holds 5.8% of PDZ, funny how they didn't mention that in thier latest presentation, Once PDZ's Prarie Downs project gets large enough what do you think CBH will do? Gobble Gobble Gobble

This company is very focused on Long Term Growth,

Currently it produces Zinc, Silver, Lead (Gold soon with TKR acquisition)

Sulphur Springs will add Copper,

And Constance JV adds Iron Ore, 

As you can see it wants to become a diversified player!


----------



## greentea5 (11 July 2006)

Hi guys,

I am sort of new to trading anyway. i manage to be lucky to dip some of my saving into the resources sector last year during the correction.  

Where do you guys get all these news anyway? I dont seem to know where to read about these news....then again I bought some $3k worth of CBH (probably not a lot to u guys) not long ago....

I was thinkin, (properly wrong impression) with company of this size like CBH, would not it be an attractive target for other big player to takeover?

Like to heard some thoughts.

: 

Cheers.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (12 July 2006)

Now would you look at that, an increase in reserves at its Broken Hill CML7 'Rasp Mine' gee wiz who would have thought and the stock begins to rise!



Now just wait for the markets reaction when Sulphur Springs BFS is released!!!!!!!! Copper + Zinc should net huge returns, wait and see


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2006)

I didn't realise that Sulphur Springs was going to be an open pit operation,

Thats excellent, as if they so wish they can use a higher milling/output rate, ie currently they intend to use a 1.25Mt p.a. mill, but there is nothing stopping them from using a 2Mtp.a mill and so on as unlike underground operations, open cut are muc more simple,

Anyway 10Mt @ 3.5% Zn + 1.4% Cu

At a mining rate of 1.25 Mt p.a. = 43,750 t's Zn + 17,500 t's p.a. Cu

Now this Qtrly will be very important in showing how far recovery at Endeavour has come along, hopefully will be back above 250kt of Ore for the Qtr,

Once Endeavour gets back to its 1M t  p.a. - 1.4 Mt p.a. operation = 87,000t's - 120,000t's Zinc p.a.


----------



## michael_selway (17 July 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I didn't realise that Sulphur Springs was going to be an open pit operation,
> 
> Thats excellent, as if they so wish they can use a higher milling/output rate, ie currently they intend to use a 1.25Mt p.a. mill, but there is nothing stopping them from using a 2Mtp.a mill and so on as unlike underground operations, open cut are muc more simple,
> 
> ...





yep once their endeavor is on track things will fly for them

thx

MS


----------



## rwkni1 (25 July 2006)

I hear now that Endeavour production will not be back at 100% until Late September early October because of the current tight input market. There has been no official guidance from the company, has anyone heard anything to the contrary??


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (25 July 2006)

sure why you thought that,


CBH has always given guidance that, March Qtr = 30%, June Qtr = 60% Sep Qtr = 100%

At 60% I'm expecting 15kt's of Zinc for this past qtr

*KEY QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
Endeavor Zinc, Lead, Silver Operations
• Mine production build-up on schedule with mine output for the quarter at 30% of normal
production.
• Substantial mine development and backfill in progress.
• Major plant and equipment upgrades and new equipment installed.
• Operations on track for 60% of normal production in June 2006 quarter and full production in
September 2006 quarter.
• A $2million surface drilling programme commenced to test mineralisation at depth.*


----------



## rwkni1 (25 July 2006)

Ahh OK, maybe i misinterpreted the info i was given - but in order to acheive 100% production for the September quarter, the mine would have to be running at full production now. I guess i would have expected an announcement from the company signalling that it was back to normal after such a long lay-off - i'm sure that would have given the share price a bit of a kick along.


----------



## snapper_man (25 July 2006)

Would've thought that CBH would need to make an announcement and a profit downgrade if they were not on track. Not sure if they meant full prod by 3rd qtr or for 3rd qtr. Need to check it out.
Picked up some CBH last week at .355. Seems like a pretty good long term punt to me.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (25 July 2006)

No wait, you guys maybe right, re-read my own info in post,


*Operations on track for 60% of normal production in June 2006 quarter and full production in
September 2006 quarter*

Full production in Sept Qte = Full production from 1st July to 30th Sept,

My mistake, sorry


----------



## michael_selway (26 July 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> No wait, you guys maybe right, re-read my own info in post,
> 
> 
> *Operations on track for 60% of normal production in June 2006 quarter and full production in
> ...




Once CBH annouces/confirms that, CBH should jump

thx

MS


----------



## brerwallabi (27 July 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Once CBH annouces/confirms that, CBH should jump
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



Oh boy and I thought I used to ramp CBH when it was 17cps, keep doing it son I still hold some.


----------



## michael_selway (1 August 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Oh boy and I thought I used to ramp CBH when it was 17cps, keep doing it son I still hold some.




Date: 31/7/2006 
Author: Verity Edwards 
Source: The Australian --- Page: 27 
 CBH Resources will work a discarded zinc mine in New South Wales. The company will spend up to $A50 million to reopen the Rasp mine in the centre of Broken Hill. The zinc is low-grade and was too costly to extract in the past. However, the high price of zinc and more cost-effective mining techniques have made the mine viable. A $A15 million exploration project is nearly complete. Mining will begin in 2008 and the mine will employ up to 100 people 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (4 August 2006)

CBH are being held back over the recent dragged out bid for Triako Resources that they may have thought was cut-and-dried.


----------



## snapper_man (7 August 2006)

Recent Hartleys broker report.....

http://cms.cbhresources.com.au//information/pdf/020806.pdf

buy....with target price 61c


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 August 2006)

A bit of life, some large buy orders, a few large sell orders, 

Has it nearly shaken out all of the weak hands? It certainly spent alot of time consolidating around the 36/38c level


----------



## Sean K (18 August 2006)

Done quite a bit of consolidating. Pretty steady rise after the Apr/May extreme volitility.

Looks like it's could be on the way up now. Recovered from the big fall after that sloping H&S pattern. Interesting that the neckline of that is close to what would be the next resistance at $0.41/42. 

Might be looking at a breakout through there on to $0.45 +

Could break down though too!   Need to watch it.....

But with the fundamentals looking good and the TKR deal almost done, perhaps that will be all it needs.


----------



## Kipp (22 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Done quite a bit of consolidating. Pretty steady rise after the Apr/May extreme volitility.
> 
> Looks like it's could be on the way up now. Recovered from the big fall after that sloping H&S pattern. Interesting that the neckline of that is close to what would be the next resistance at $0.41/42.
> 
> ...




Back to 38 today... is this a bearish sign that it did not breakout when it hit the apex of the support/resistence apex?

On the other hand- ZFX, JML, KZL all having a pretty good time of it.  So surely CBH is due for a jump?


----------



## nizar (22 August 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Back to 38 today... is this a bearish sign that it did not breakout when it hit the apex of the support/resistence apex?
> 
> On the other hand- ZFX, JML, KZL all having a pretty good time of it.  So surely CBH is due for a jump?




CBH has been due for a jump for a very very long time

Id rather pay low-mid 40s for this when i know for sure it has broken out; charts look good though; volumes increasing but i really didnt like mondays dump on 3million volume close on the low


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2006)

It's still consolidating IMO. Not broken up or down yet. Still watching very closely, I reckon this will be next in line.


----------



## michael_selway (23 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> It's still consolidating IMO. Not broken up or down yet. Still watching very closely, I reckon this will be next in line.




yeah if it stays down while ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN are goign up, CBH will becoem a takeover target

thx

MS


----------



## rwkni1 (23 August 2006)

Unfortunately i dont think anyone can touch CBH given it is 25% owned by Toho Zinc. Either way - once Triako goes through and full production at Endeavour is announced its all blue sky - barring a sharp fall in zinc prices.


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2006)

Currently sitting just under $0.40 resistance, up a little on good eary volume. Looks like it could be going to go for a run. Perhaps.


----------



## mrWoodo (23 August 2006)

newbie lurker here 

Trading halt on, fingers crossed !

Woodo


----------



## tasmanian (23 August 2006)

trading halt?????where did u see that


----------



## nizar (23 August 2006)

OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT ALERT........


----------



## Kipp (23 August 2006)

tasmanian said:
			
		

> trading halt?????where did u see that



Yeajh I missed it too... no annct today fo CBH except the takeover news...


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT ALERT........




Not 'outstanding' yet but Looking very positive on good volume.

I'm in for a few at $0.395.


----------



## mrWoodo (23 August 2006)

tasmanian said:
			
		

> trading halt?????where did u see that




Yeah it was only for 10 min or so, followed by news release re. extension offer TKR.

Only picked it up as I was selling at the exact moment thru comsec

Woodo


----------



## nizar (23 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Not 'outstanding' yet but Looking very positive on good volume.
> 
> I'm in for a few at $0.395.




look at the volume brother

the charts says everytime this breaks through 5mil on an up day it rallies... and now the volume is closer to 10mil

and the volumes have been picking up lately, and that big triangle u posted its juz a matter of which way it will break... i think its clear the direction is up...

and plus i juz saw a 300k and a 500k order both go through... 

if 40.5c is good enough for them its good enough for me, so yes im officially in at 40.5c..


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2006)

Still has to hold above $0.40 for more than a few trades, but looking ok. Don't want to jump the gun here. If it's confirmed I'll be in for a few more but I'm ready to jump as well. Still not conviced with the short term direction of the market doodes.


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2006)

Well, well, @ .41. Could be ready to scoot. Happy I got in at .395 at this stage. Still, potential for bad metal market over night and a retreat...Hopefully, these good conditions continue.


----------



## dubiousinfo (23 August 2006)

I jumped in on the last rally in July at .40 only to see it fall back to mid 30's.
Hope it can stay up this time.
It would be good to get an update on the progress of returning endeavour to 100% production.


----------



## Rafa (23 August 2006)

after getting burnt at 50cents couple of months ago...
back in now at 40c...
and on a nice, more steady uptrend line... (thanks for the charts kennas)

looks like the takeover is close to completion too... so thats good.


----------



## Kipp (24 August 2006)

Breakout seems to have halted- maybe because it's a dark day on the market (All Ords Down 40).  Vol still very solid but plenty of Sell Depth.

Kennas- what do you reckon?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

Kipp, Holding ok above $0.40. $0.42 providing some resistance. Noticed the selling coming in there. 

Would have to break down through about $0.36 for a real reversal. Looks like there's good support at $0.35. 

Still, early days, can't go up every minute of the day.....Still looking positive to me. 

Good long term stock if you believe the Chindiapanaiwanaporesia story still IMO.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (24 August 2006)

Kennas 'Please Explain' Chindiapanaiwanaporesia

I see China-India-Japan-Taiwan- Singapore- Asia, is that right? 

40c-46c will be heavy level to get over


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (24 August 2006)

Also K, can you redraw your chart with the upper triangle line starting at the peak price (60c or so),

Interested to see how that wedge looks,

Thanks


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

he he, YT - Indonesia. 200m people will one day need more than a horse and cart and a bag of rice.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (24 August 2006)

lol what more could they need than a horse & cart and a bag of rice?

Oh right, hookers and alchol  ,



On a serious note, I see the bottom line of the triangle going all the way back to the Nov 05 low of 16c(so like an ascending support line which would make sense cause as time marches on CBH's improves its production levels etc which increaes its support), but can't really make heads or tails of the upper resistance, whether its a lid at 40c (looks likely) or some sort of descending line (but from which point?)


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Also K, can you redraw your chart with the upper triangle line starting at the peak price (60c or so),
> 
> Interested to see how that wedge looks,
> 
> Thanks




YT, Can't really do a triangle from there. It doesn't link up with any other resistance points on the way down. 

Came off with everything else today but still above the triangle after breaking through it. Still reckon 'break down' is through around $0.36/7 ish. Room to move. 

As I said earlier, I'm short terming atm, so if it starts to break down, I'm jumping. 

Also, yes, agree there will resistance at $0.45.


----------



## dj_420 (24 August 2006)

Hey guys found this on sharescene
what you think kennas?


China's Zinc Demand to Increase 56% by 2010, Antaike Forecasts 

By Chia-Peck Wong

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The demand for zinc in China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, may rise 56 percent by 2010, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. has forecast. 

The country may need 4.8 million metric tons of zinc by the end of the decade, from 3.08 million tons in 2005, as it requires more of the metal to coat steel to prevent corrosion, Feng Juncong, a senior analyst at Antaike, a research agency that advises the government, said yesterday at a conference. 

``As China's construction and transportation sectors grow, consumption has entered its peak growth rate,'' she said in a presentation in Inner Mongolia, a region in western China. 

Zinc prices in London have surged 75 percent this year and reached a record $4,000 a ton in May on expectations China's expanding economy will require more metals, while smelter output in China has been stymied by a lack of mined material. 

``China will definitely need to rely on imports to fulfill its annual needs'' in the next few years, said Feng, who has been tracking the industry for 12 years and correctly forecast China would become a net importer of refined zinc in 2004. 

The domestic supply of mined zinc is likely to lag behind demand by more than 10 percent this year, pushing up concentrate prices, she said. She didn't provide an estimate of China's zinc production in 2010, saying that the country is likely to remain a net importer till then. 

This year, China's net imports of zinc products, including mined output, or so-called concentrates, are likely to be stable at 860,000 tons, little changed from last year, as higher internationally-traded prices led Chinese smelters to export more, she said. 

Record Forecast 

Zinc prices in London, which have fallen about 16 percent from their record, are likely post a new peak in the fourth quarter as stockpiles continue to dwindle, Feng said. 

``The fundamental demand and supply factors are still good,'' she said, without forecasting how high prices may rise. 

Zinc stockpiles at warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have plunged 55 percent this year to 179,175 tons as of yesterday, the lowest since early 1992. 

China's lead consumption may surge 43 percent to 2.3 million tons in 2010 as demand from lead-acid battery makers soars 65 percent to 1.79 million tons, Feng said. 

The forecast is ``definitely conservative as over the past 10 years, apparent consumption in China has grown 20 percent every year,'' she said. 

Industry consultants including Michael Komesaroff said that developing Inner Mongolia's lead and zinc resources may help China reduce its dependence on imports. 

`Own Resources' 

``China will prefer to develop its own resources rather than buying from overseas,'' Komesaroff, managing director of Urandaline Investments Pty., said by phone from the northeastern Australian state of Queensland on Aug. 21. 

Inner Mongolia is ``highly prospective'' in terms of lead and zinc, he said. 

Of the 1.82 million tons of zinc concentrate produced in China last year, 15 percent came from the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia, making it China's third-biggest producer after Yunnan and Gansu, Feng said. 

The region ranked as China's top producer of mined lead last year, accounting for 15 percent of total output of 630,000 tons, she said. 

There are other advantages exploring for lead and zinc in Inner Mongolia, which possesses China's second-biggest resources of both metals, as many deposits also contain other metals such as silver, she said. 

Inner Mongolia's government plans to spend 2 billion yuan ($251 million) in the next five years to explore for mines, Zheng Fanshen, vice director and general engineer of the region's prospecting and exploitation bureau, told reporters at the conference yesterday. Coal was the first priority, and base metals such as copper, lead and zinc the second, Zheng said. 

To contact the reporter for this story: Chia-Peck Wong in Inner Mongolia at cpwong@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: August 23, 2006 21:35 EDT


----------



## michael_selway (24 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> lol what more could they need than a horse & cart and a bag of rice?
> 
> Oh right, hookers and alchol  ,




Not necessarily in that order i might add   

Alos do u knwo when they annouce full year result?

thx

MS


----------



## Sean K (28 August 2006)

Interesting to see a 2m parcel go through late this afternoon bringing in some late volume. Should find a good start tomorrow I reckon. $0.40 still the hurdle.


----------



## nizar (28 August 2006)

In a word - disappointed

(that there was no follow up to that 10.5m day - but i guess the positives is that most of them are still holding)


----------



## Rafa (28 August 2006)

i had one decisions to make...
CBH or JMS...

Picked CBH... and JML is up 3 cents since then...! CBH down 1cent!
oh well...


----------



## michael_selway (28 August 2006)

Rafa said:
			
		

> i had one decisions to make...
> CBH or JMS...
> 
> Picked CBH... and JML is up 3 cents since then...! CBH down 1cent!
> oh well...




Both have low Forward PEs

JML - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -5.4 -1.7 4.8 19.9 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

CBH - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.4 -2.5 13.1 19.5 
DPS 1.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 

thx

MS


----------



## CanOz (29 August 2006)

CBH is on the move but its going to be an effort to plough through the sellers today. If it breaks .42 it may breakout. Fingers crossed.


----------



## michael_selway (29 August 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> CBH is on the move but its going to be an effort to plough through the sellers today. If it breaks .42 it may breakout. Fingers crossed.




Yeah Hopefully



> Treasure hunt FEATURE
> 
> Although resource stocks are all the rage right now, investors are wary about exploration minnows. Which is exactly what makes them such a good catch, Tim Treadgold explains.
> 
> ...



thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (29 August 2006)

> ...Salinas Energy
> 
> Largely unknown to local investors because it has chosen to do its oil and gas exploring in the US, Salinas (SAE) is an Australian business run by a management team with a record of discovery best seen through an earlier business called Voyager Energy.
> 
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## Sean K (30 August 2006)

Seems to have broken that resistance around $0.40 now, on volume. Confirmed upward trend now, imo. To be proved wrong probably.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 August 2006)

Fat Prophets Buy Recommendation up to 46c (Will take it up to resistance level) 

Volume has really picked up, watch for a break above 46c, it'll be a hard fight though


----------



## Nick Radge (30 August 2006)

Note the date:







*BOTTOM LINE * 
28/8:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY 

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS * 
28/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 14 secs)
CBH is another Zinc related stock and is one that has been covered in the earlier days of these pages. I continue to like CBH and like its bigger brothers ZFX and KZL we are seeing some coiling action. Unlike those two, CBH is yet to break out with any conviction. An attempt was made last week but failed at $0.42. A move again through $0.42 would be deemed very bullish, especially if accompanied by high volume. Like many breakout scenario's, we would ideally like to see a close outside of the congestion area and high volume. A clean break with follow through would place the major highs at $0.59 on the table, if not more. The larger picture is very bullish but $0.42 is paramount to ongoing advances.

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION * 
28/8:
If prices penetrate and reverse, or penetrate on low volume, then defensive action should be swift. Failed breakouts are the scourge of traders, especially since such methods have become more popular over the last 10 to 15-years. The wave-4 low was a very bullish bar and we're now trying to move higher. The $0.42 is very important and must be broken before long positions are initiated. Ideally protective stops should be placed below $0.34, although $0.37 would be acceptable for those looking to be slightly more aggressive. Being a wave-4 I would expect a minimum move to the wave-3 highs set back in May but as we know from the performance of KZL and ZFX over the last week, we could easily start to think in bigger numbers.

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


----------



## nizar (30 August 2006)

Thanks Nick


----------



## michael_selway (30 August 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Thanks Nick




I 2nd that

Yep, ZFX, KZL, PEM, CBH all doing well now

thx

MS


----------



## 2020hindsight (31 August 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> CBH is on the move but its going to be an effort to plough through the sellers today. If it breaks .42 it may breakout. Fingers crossed.



  Gee I hope youre right canuck- But I wish you'd be more specific in defining your terms - by breakout do you mean  .46?  .50?  1.00? Like you say, fingers crossed.


----------



## nizar (31 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Yep, ZFX, KZL, PEM, CBH all doing well now




Yeh but KZL the only one at all time highs...


----------



## CanOz (31 August 2006)

2020hindsight said:
			
		

> Gee I hope youre right canuck- But I wish you'd be more specific in defining your terms - by breakout do you mean  .46?  .50?  1.00? Like you say, fingers crossed.




.425 was where i had my buy order (and a price alert at .42). If it cleared the sellers there it should move up to .46 (as mentioned by others) relatively easily. Lots of resisitance to come at .46 but volume lately would suggest that it could push through. Nick's analysis by the way, was the final straw for me to place the buy order (only as a subscriber to his newletter i got it a day earlier).

Cheers,


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (31 August 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Yeh but KZL the only one at all time highs...





How was the rebound of KZL today!. 10% from AM dump to PM close SP. This stock is a winner long and short trading


----------



## sleeper88 (31 August 2006)

Well since all zinc stocks are going up..anyone have any thoughts on TZN?


----------



## hypnotic (1 September 2006)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> Well since all zinc stocks are going up..anyone have any thoughts on TZN?




Zinc stocks is deinfitely going well and probably still undervalued imo. The zinc stock in the LME has continually been on the decrease. Now that the market seems to have picked up again it'll be interesting to see what happens to the zinc stocks in the next few weeks. 

Hm... i have been watching TZN it's dropped a lot since the run on the approval of the Angas Zinc project. I like the potential though   

Hypnotic

These are merely my own thoughts.


----------



## Fab (1 September 2006)

Yep. I am also wondering what is going on with TZN. I bought at the peak at 1.70 and I am waiting for TZN to shoot up again. Hopefully like ZFX.


----------



## Sean K (1 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Fat Prophets Buy Recommendation up to 46c (Will take it up to resistance level)
> 
> Volume has really picked up, watch for a break above 46c, it'll be a hard fight though




Pushing $0.46, I'm much more confident that this is breaking up and the volume is great! Looks good to push through.


----------



## rwkni1 (1 September 2006)

Yeah, it definately looks the goods, but whats the go with this takeover - it seems to be dragging on for a rediculous amount of time. Their latest update this morning showed they'd only increased their holding by about 1% to 71% over the past 8 days. At this rate this thing will go forever - but i think if it is resolved near term that could be a catalyst for another push up.


----------



## CanOz (1 September 2006)

I think CBH will struggle today, being Friday...profit taking before the weekend.


----------



## nizar (1 September 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> I think CBH will struggle today, being Friday...profit taking before the weekend.




I agree

This one needs to break 45c on volume and stay there; as this is the next resistance. Once that happens, i think it will get to 56-57c very quickly, ie. within a few days...


----------



## IGO4IT (1 September 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> I agree
> 
> This one needs to break 45c on volume and stay there; as this is the next resistance. Once that happens, i think it will get to 56-57c very quickly, ie. within a few days...




Nizar,

nothing goes up forever without a little retrace or a hold, we had 4 consecutive white candles & a little retrace is a must to continue a healthy uptrend. defenitely its looking healthy & I'm taking today as an advantage to top up a bit more.

cheers,


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 September 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> I agree
> 
> This one needs to break 45c on volume and stay there; as this is the next resistance. Once that happens, i think it will get to 56-57c very quickly, ie. within a few days...





Really?, whats ur reasoning that it might not go sideways or south!.


----------



## nizar (1 September 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> nothing goes up forever without a little retrace or a hold, we had 4 consecutive white candles & a little retrace is a must to continue a healthy uptrend. defenitely its looking healthy & I'm taking today as an advantage to top up a bit more.
> 
> cheers,




IGO, dont treat this like EXT!!
These guys are earning big money and with zincers starting to fire up again (ZFX, KZL) and endeavour to full production in october, this will be firing. Alot of big chomps went through on that 10.5m day, i saw 2 300ks and 1 500ks


----------



## porkpie324 (1 September 2006)

i agree, CBH has been a trader for me for over 3 years, bought  first on a david haselhurst recomendation (one of my best sources for spec tips). not anymore, have been accumilating for the past 8/9 weeks, now its a hold. porkpie


----------



## IGO4IT (1 September 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> IGO, dont treat this like EXT!!
> These guys are earning big money and with zincers starting to fire up again (ZFX, KZL) and endeavour to full production in october, this will be firing. Alot of big chomps went through on that 10.5m day, i saw 2 300ks and 1 500ks




Nizar,

This one is totally different from EXT, size & risk & everything is totally different & logically I can't just take a big position in 1 day & also I have to start somewhere!

Yes, I saw all these big buys & specially before close & next week looks like it could be interesting, it was very obvious how resistance became 47c instead of yesterday's 46.5c on depth which tells me that a break of 46.5 is really a possibility.

Got some more today & hopefully some more next week. I'm not trading this one,I'm holding long term because I think that finally I might had got in a bit early before the crowds gather to take a bite!

cheers,


----------



## Rafa (1 September 2006)

> I think that finally I might had got in a bit early before the crowds gather to take a bite!




I really hope your right... 

Then its party time... 
:jump:


----------



## brerwallabi (3 September 2006)

Looks like CBH might finally break out this week, it might move very quickly to make up the ground it has lost compared to the other zinc companies, see that gap in the image below between ZFX and CBH.


----------



## Beethoven (4 September 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Looks like CBH might finally break out this week, it might move very quickly to make up the ground it has lost compared to the other zinc companies, see that gap in the image below between ZFX and CBH.




I hope you are right because it seems like this stock has to go through quite a lot of resistance to go through to get to the 50 cent level.


----------



## CanOz (4 September 2006)

What does everyone make of today's pullback? I'm at even odds for an increase or decrease tomorrow. Good volume today might have burned off a few sellers allowing the stock to continue the uptrend, any thoughts?


----------



## dubiousinfo (4 September 2006)

There remains a lot of selling pressure & the TKR takeover is dragging on a lot longer than it should have. They now have 82.3%, only 8% more and it can be wrapped up with compulsory acquistion.

This is still undervalued, but it's looking like it will have to claw every inch of the way to 50c before the selling pressure eases.

Wrapping up the TKR deal will help, as will an annoucement that Endevour is back to full production, which is expected in the 3rd quarter results.

I will continue to hold, maybe pick up some more if there is any signifcant pull back.


----------



## dj_420 (4 September 2006)

apparantly the ann is due on wed. this should clear up doubts as to when production will be coming back on line 100%. i think everything is looking good with zinc fundamentals looking very good and market sentiment seems to be improving.

slight pullback today but it has already run into mid 40's. if it consolidates around this level 45 cents and shows some good buying support then can make another attempt at cracking the 46 c resistance. 

remember CBH made a good 2 attempts at breaking resistance on 40 cents then broke through. another couple attempts and we will see 50 c plus


----------



## nizar (4 September 2006)

cathers_420 said:
			
		

> apparantly the ann is due on wed.



according to who?


----------



## dj_420 (4 September 2006)

According to Wespac brokerage, CBH will release their interim results on Wednesday

this should alleviate some ppl concerns about returning to production


----------



## Basilisk (5 September 2006)

"Substantial  Resource and Reserve upgrade for Endeavor Mine" announced today

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00643577


----------



## hypnotic (5 September 2006)

Basilisk said:
			
		

> "Substantial  Resource and Reserve upgrade for Endeavor Mine" announced today
> 
> http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00643577




Yeap great news for CBH. Price peaked at 49 cents and have broken the 46 cents resistance.


----------



## Rafa (5 September 2006)

Giddyup!!! 
 :jump:  :jump:  :jump:


----------



## IGO4IT (5 September 2006)

hmmmm...looks like a massive upgrade.

anyone with raugh estimtes on how much would that add per share? fundementally of course?

cheers,


----------



## Rafa (5 September 2006)

initial reaction is pretty muted to say the least  

you'd think a 25% odd increase in resource for a companies primary mine would do an equivalent increase in the SP! But there are a lot of sellers between current SP and 50cents.


----------



## hypnotic (5 September 2006)

Rafa said:
			
		

> initial reaction is pretty muted to say the least
> 
> you'd think a 25% odd increase in resource for a companies primary mine would do an equivalent increase in the SP! But there are a lot of sellers between current SP and 50cents.




Yeah definitely a lot of sellers between .475 and .50

Profit taking perhaps? 

i would have thought the market would have reacted better than this...   

Hypnotic


----------



## IGO4IT (5 September 2006)

hypnotic said:
			
		

> Yeah definitely a lot of sellers between .475 and .50
> 
> Profit taking perhaps?
> 
> ...





relax guys, pressure on 47c shows big force coming in & obviously market needs time to digest the figures. Volume is already high & pressure is on.

When i saw the ann I thought it couldn't be as good as what it sounded but now you're confirming that I'm correct!

those that sell on strength are day traders & short termers. They have to sell & buyers know that.

I'm guessing another "big" run coming very soon.

Big boys don't miss opportunities like that!! I've sold few other stocks already to buy more of CBH & defenitely will be loaded before end of day tomorrow.


----------



## michael_selway (5 September 2006)

Basilisk said:
			
		

> "Substantial  Resource and Reserve upgrade for Endeavor Mine" announced today
> 
> http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00643577




DOes it say what the new mine life would be now?

thx

MS


----------



## IGO4IT (5 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> DOes it say what the new mine life would be now?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS





as per other posters in other sites, its 16 years after considering 1.2m tons mining of gravel capacity a year.

Interm report comes tomorrow as per Comsec corporate calendar.

in my little understanding, it should tell us about the return of full production at endeavour next month & may be any of the other good news.

Hartley's report on website predict a SP of $2.49 if zinc price stays the same.

http://cms.cbhresources.com.au//information/pdf/020806.pdf 

so obviously, we have a long way to go & current price of 48.5c is a way below what this share could reach!!!

If anyone cares to look up the hartley's report, you'll find amazing summary to CBH & defenitely will give you better understanding to its solid fundementals.

cheers,


----------



## 2020hindsight (5 September 2006)

IGO4IT said:
			
		

> Hartley's report on website predict a SP of $2.49 if zinc price stays the same. ... current price of 48.5c



Let's seeee,... if I see the farm - thats $100K - sell the horse - that's another 2K - sell the kids - that's $1K - and get in before 10am - I could be a multimillionaire before lunch  :horse:


----------



## Beethoven (6 September 2006)

Finally broke the 50c resistance level.  It seems its upward from now on


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 September 2006)

I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt, 

CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,

I held  @ 47 and bought more at 35 so made a nice profit

Good luck to all those who are still riding, hope you make a ton


----------



## dj_420 (6 September 2006)

hey YT

have a look at sellers, all seem to have moved further up into high 50's. befor there were 600k on 51 now back to 54. sellers are retreating their prices, seem to be in buyers hands now. if buyers can take it through into the 50's would be great

i think all market needs now is an ann that CBH are back into full production and woosh


----------



## michael_selway (6 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt,
> 
> CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,
> 
> ...




How much CBH shares does TKR shareholders have in total atm?

Also when are they issuinf 100m shares?

Also Zinc On Warrant down to 128k?







thx

MS


----------



## IGO4IT (6 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt,
> 
> CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,
> 
> ...





Young trader,

I've been watching depth closely as I'm still a buyer at the moment.

1 buy order came in of 700k to take all 50c off plus all the few hundred thousands happened before it as well.

I still think it has a way to go considering current pressure.

cheers,


----------



## 2020hindsight (6 September 2006)

Wish you bloks would make up your mind lol.
Ive changed by open order three times now  currently I plan to sell at 52 - as if my opinion matters around here. - might as well toss a coin ( thats what I did incidentally)


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 September 2006)

Don't get me wrong, stock could go to 60c, but it could also continue to try and get there hovering around 49-51c level and fall back to 42c,

Over the next month 1 thing is for sure, there will be alot of TKR sellers,

TKR shareholders will get their stock once T/O goes through, should be mid Sept, so add 2 weeks, maybe early Oct

I'm just warning you all that I know brokers who act for some large TKR shareholders who have said that once they get CBH script they will sell!, 
I'm not saying all will sell, but alot of them will.

Regards


----------



## Beethoven (6 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt,
> 
> CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,
> 
> ...




I kind of have to agree with IGO with that one.  They still need another 8% or so to fully take over tkr and doing it very slowly.  They also still have an ann coming soon. I think it has a little bit more to go before i sell


----------



## 2020hindsight (6 September 2006)

Beethoven said:
			
		

> ..it has a little bit more to go before i sell



I belive it was Johann S Bach who said, "I agree Beethoven, the symphony is not quite finished."


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 September 2006)

Where the heck did all that buying volume go?

Fruit basket for Lord

The battle of wills between the board of CBH Resources and former Elders executive Geoff Lord ratcheted up another notch yesterday. The CBH board extended its bid for Triako until September 29 and held out a carrot to Lord, a Triako director, in the form of an offer to make the offer free of conditions if he accepts within two weeks. 
*Making matters even more complicated for the CBH board is the arrival of another arbitrageur and now substantial shareholder - Monterrey Investment Management - with a 5.6 per cent stake.*

Regards


----------



## michael_selway (7 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Where the heck did all that buying volume go?
> 
> Fruit basket for Lord
> 
> ...




Is this bearish ot bullish?

thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (7 September 2006)

It has run very hard in the last week or so, fighting through a lot of resistance to get to current sp. consolidation around this level would be good to make next assault and break through 50 cents. IMO the ann for return to production is needed to continue its run and show some more buying support.

long term io think this stock still looks fantastic, zinc prices beginning to pick up and we are still seeing a decent decline in LME zinc stockpiles.

what do you think long term for CBH YOUNG TRADER??
i think the fundamentals are great. 30% increase on reserves so its even more attractive than before.


----------



## rwkni1 (7 September 2006)

I think this is obviously bearish for the stock, but rather than push it lower its more likely just to cap the gains given all the other positive news out there. Each time there has been an extension of a takeover or another substantial shareholder notice showing a measly increase in acceptances the share price has reacted negatively. IGO, any news on this interim report? I believe they should be announcing full production at Endeavour within the next few weeks.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 September 2006)

I think CBH is a great stock,

But just remember this, now it has a total of 800m shares fully dilliuted, please don't check comsec or something and say hey they only have 600m or so,

Trust me they have 800m, you have to add the 100m from the T/O and I think 85m from memory for the Conv Notes they have,

Anyway they DO HAVE 800M shares,

@ 50c Mkt Cap = $400m,

So they're not tiny, give them time and they will be a $1 stock (no brainer) just better short term opportunities out there IMO


----------



## dubiousinfo (7 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Where the heck did all that buying volume go?
> 
> Fruit basket for Lord
> 
> ...





The offer was recommended unamimously by the board and in the Target Statement all the directors said they intended acepting for their personal holdings.

I thought Lord was just being slow in accepting, he can't really ask for more now after recommending to shareholders & telling them he was going to accept. So if he is holding out, what is it for?

When Lord accepts CBH would hold 85%


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 September 2006)

Well I just found out something very interesting,


Apparantly overseas shareholders can't accept the T/O offer, due to Aust Corps Law

So a special purpose group has been buying up all the overseas shareholders shares (Monterrey Investment Management - with a 5.6 per cent stake)

So technically CBH have 80%+

So once Lord accepts its a done deal, but as Lord holds 10.11% it won't go through until he accepts (ie can't get 90% for compulsory acquisition)

So its going through, its a done deal, only question is how long, CBH have said that they will issue script within 5 days of T/O being completed.


----------



## dubiousinfo (7 September 2006)

YT
After the deal is completed, do you know what will happen with Monterrey's holdings?
Will they keep them or will they be sold off?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 September 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> YT
> After the deal is completed, do you know what will happen with Monterrey's holdings?
> Will they keep them or will they be sold off?





 :dunno:


----------



## dubiousinfo (13 September 2006)

CBH have released its full year results and confirmed that endevour will be back to full production in October. They are forecasting an annual production rate of 1.2mil tonnes/yr which will see them equal the output 1.1mil tonnes for the 04/05 year.

During 04/05 year, the revenue from mining operations was $142m with overall costs of $131m for a $9.6m profit before tax.

As as rough guess at some numbers for the 06/07 year, using metal prices of $3,300/t zinc,  $1100/t lead & $11/oz silver, they are looking at revenue of around $227m.  Allowing for an increase of 20% for costs to $157m, they are looking at a profit of $70m for the year. 

Using 800,000 as shares on issue & a sp of 45c, the profit would be 8.7c/shr & a PE of 5.2.

Throw in Triako & the new mines to be brought on line in coming years & some blue sky for the exploration tenements & the company looks good for the medium term.


----------



## rwkni1 (19 September 2006)

Looks like triako has gone through.


----------



## Sean K (19 September 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> CBH have released its full year results and confirmed that endevour will be back to full production in October. They are forecasting an annual production rate of 1.2mil tonnes/yr which will see them equal the output 1.1mil tonnes for the 04/05 year.
> 
> During 04/05 year, the revenue from mining operations was $142m with overall costs of $131m for a $9.6m profit before tax.
> 
> ...




Thanks Dubious, Looks to be still on 1 year upward trend and if your figures are correct, then it looks undervalued atm. Corrected with everything else last week. I might pick up some more if it's sold off much more. Say $0.38 levels, around trend line and 200d ma.


----------



## dubiousinfo (19 September 2006)

Kennas,

CBH have undertaken to issue the shares to the TKR holders within 5 days of the takeover going through if the last director accepted by 19 Sept (which he has done) 

So in regard to short term buying, keep in mind the comments of YT below:




			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Don't get me wrong, stock could go to 60c, but it could also continue to try and get there hovering around 49-51c level and fall back to 42c,
> 
> Over the next month 1 thing is for sure, there will be alot of TKR sellers,
> 
> ...


----------



## Sean K (19 September 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> CBH have undertaken to issue the shares to the TKR holders within 5 days of the takeover going through if the last director accepted by 19 Sept (which he has done)
> 
> So in regard to short term buying, keep in mind the comments of YT below:





Hmmm, interesting perspective. I rate YTs comments, so worth considering of course. I bought at $0.39 so perhaps time to get out and buy in lower....   Or, think long term.....


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Hmmm, interesting perspective. I rate YTs comments, so worth considering of course. I bought at $0.39 so perhaps time to get out and buy in lower....   Or, think long term.....




Kennas,

39c would seem safe, 

Support as I predicted was found at 41-42c, thats why at 50c it was too good an opportunity not to sell,

Long term this is probably one of the lowest trading PER stocks around so you'll do well either way


----------



## dj_420 (19 September 2006)

my avg is for 38 cents. i suppose the downside is that TKR shareholders dump all their stock after the t/o clears.

the results of that would mean we can pick up more CBH for cheap. and i dont think the TKR shareholders would want to force the sp down to much as it will affect their profits anyway.

i see this as a long term hold so i will just hold and wait and see. i see them as a great zinc producer who will benefit through the next two years, following a deficit in zinc stocks.

the advantage is that the TKR t/o issue is now resolved and CBH just have to get full production back online to make for more positive ann. so the t/o that was dragged out is now resolved. i think after TKR shareholders do what they want to do and an ann for full production will help sp greatly


----------



## michael_selway (19 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> 39c would seem safe,
> 
> ...




Hey check this out

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 13.1 19.5 4.6 
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 -- 

Well if u look at forward terminal PE of 10, its 46c!

But im bullish on Zinc running out, so things can be crazy then

thx

MS


----------



## Sean K (19 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hey check this out
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...




Good work on 1000 posts MS!

Hey, I like your quote 'bullish on zinc running out'. LOL.  

Like, clean out? None left at all?


----------



## dj_420 (19 September 2006)

im very bullish about zinc and uranium.

zinc is flying out the window along with uranium.
is everyone still as bullish on zinc as before, there havent been any posts in zinc thread lately.

i agree with YT that TKR shareholders could dump all their stock very quickly, BUT sp showed huge amount of support this morning following ann that takeoverwas finally tied up and sealed. look at support levels from 40c upwards. it seems market sentiment may be positive for CBH again. i agree that the takeover did drag out considerably BUT now that is all settled.

im holding long term for this one, or at least until we see a zinc bubble next year. BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)

25 000 tonnes per month decreasing, so 6 months give or take some tonnage ins from new orleans?? or considerable slowdown following last 50 000 tonnes 

if TKR shareholders dump then i will be waiting to pick up some cheap shares along with other CBH supporters.


----------



## nizar (19 September 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)




Have a look at what is happening to nickel right now, and that may give u some idea of what will happen to zinc in 6 or so months

ZFX and AIM are the stocks to hold IMO, CBH hmmm... if they dont try to take over the world i mite consider them.

AIM will be coming into production at JUne 2007 at a time when zinc will be desperately in short supply and smelters will be fighting over it. The highest bidder wins... 

WHats the perfect time to take over a company?
I dont really know, but i know its NOT when u are barely profitable, now there will be close to 800m shares and a traders fantasy and it will become like EXT, the sell side always stacked...

I find myself always making excuses as to why this stock is not performing. Once a dog, always a dog?


----------



## specman (19 September 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> im very bullish about zinc and uranium.
> 
> zinc is flying out the window along with uranium.
> is everyone still as bullish on zinc as before, there havent been any posts in zinc thread lately.
> ...




I'm liking zinc as well.The rate of decline in LME inventory seems to have accelerated in the past 30 days.No more ins at New Orleans which could suggest that the hurricane damaged zinc have all been cleaned and returned on warrant.


----------



## nizar (19 September 2006)

specman said:
			
		

> No more ins at New Orleans which could suggest that the hurricane damaged zinc have all been cleaned and returned on warrant.




Just in time for the next hurricane!!


----------



## saichuen (20 September 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> ZFX and AIM are the stocks to hold IMO, CBH hmmm... if they dont try to take over the world i mite consider them.
> 
> AIM will be coming into production at JUne 2007 at a time when zinc will be desperately in short supply and smelters will be fighting over it. The highest bidder wins...




It's interesting to see that AIM is being compared here with CBH since one is in the explorer status with a promise to produce in mid-2007 while the other is a current producer who is already producing and will be back on track in full capacity by October. While I do agree that AIM has the potential, but in a volatile market today, broken promises will be severely punished. 

My 2cents worth...

Happy Trading All!


----------



## porkpie324 (20 September 2006)

i have to agree with the last post, a miner digging something up with good reserves is better than prospective miner, although don't get me wrong AIM does have good potential. Its just a higher risk when things are about to happen. porkpie


----------



## dj_420 (20 September 2006)

Yes i agree, and the market does punish firms who dont keep promises. now shareholders are expecting AIM to be producing in june 2007 if not sp will suffer


----------



## nizar (20 September 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> now shareholders are expecting AIM to be producing in june 2007 if not sp will suffer




Not only the shareholders will be disappointed but so will the 3 companies who have already signed offtake agreements with AIM including Xstrata!


----------



## dj_420 (22 September 2006)

Another article on zinc

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7185


Expect zinc prices to be in USD 3,700 range: Uttam Galva
Source: Moneycontrol.com



See also
Zinc Board
Zinc CatalogUttam Galva Steel is in news because the company has announced that they will be hiking galvanised steel prices by about Rs 1,000 a tonne, with immediate effect. There is buoyancy in international prices, which does hold an argument for this increase.

Director of Uttam Galva Steels, Ankit Miglani says that steel prices have come off from their highs, but they have stopped falling and have leveled off.

He adds that they foresee zinc prices to go up much faster and expect it to be closer to the USD 3,700 odd range.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Ankit Miglani:

Q: Explain to us really the rationale behind increasing prices now, given that steel is a raw material for you and zinc has seen some amount of cooling off in the month of September?

A: You are absolutely right. There was some sort of cooling off at the beginning, but we must realise that the actual pricing is done on monthly averages and on global demand supplies. On a day-to-day basis, one might see some slackening in prices, but if one looks at it on a monthly perspective, the prices have actually been consistently going up over the past few months.

As far as steel is concerned, the prices have come off from their highs, but they have stopped falling and have leveled off.

We are seeing an increase of USD 30-USD 40 per tonne over the past couple of weeks. This is primarily because of the fact that Chinese export rebates have been cut, so their exports have become less competitive in the global market. That has a direct impact on Indian steel industries because we have only a 5% duty now and anything that happens in the world affects the Indian steel industry directly.

Q: Today internationally zinc is quoting at about USD 3,360 per tonne level. You have hiked prices by Rs 1000 at this point in time. Going forward, how many more hikes are likely to match these international price levels?

A: The zinc price today is really less relevant. It is more important to see what is the average for the whole month, because that is how the real pricing is done. If zinc stays at these levels, the average price will be higher than last month's average zinc price. But we foresee zinc to go up much faster. We expect it to be closer to the USD 3,700 odd range in which case we would expect much stronger increases in galvanised prices also.

Q: Could you quantify that?

A: It depends on the exact quantum of the zinc price increase, because zinc is probably a 7% input cost for galvanised steel. According to that ratio, the prices of galvanised steel would keep increasing.


----------



## dj_420 (28 September 2006)

CBH is showing a lot of support from 40 cents right up to 43.5 cents. is CBH going to start moving again, zinc price has risen and is looking stronger every day. just waiting for ann that CBH is back to full production.


----------



## Sean K (29 September 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> CBH is showing a lot of support from 40 cents right up to 43.5 cents. is CBH going to start moving again, zinc price has risen and is looking stronger every day. just waiting for ann that CBH is back to full production.




Yep, it's looking pretty good. Nice long term rise going on. Going back to full production in Oct. When ann, this should provide more support to the sp. Just needs to get through this resistance at $0.45ish again, and make that a base for further rises.


----------



## Tetrahedrite (29 September 2006)

Does anyone care to speculate on the reasons for today's run? Is it the finalising of the TKR deal, the iminent return to full production at Endeavor, or something else?


----------



## Sean K (29 September 2006)

Tetrahedrite said:
			
		

> Does anyone care to speculate on the reasons for today's run? Is it the finalising of the TKR deal, the iminent return to full production at Endeavor, or something else?




General market sentiment for the moment I reckon. Just had a couple of positive days overall. Finalising the TKR deal is probably positive too. Restart full production next month at Endeavour is a positive also.


----------



## dubiousinfo (29 September 2006)

Announement from CBH stated TKR shareholders would be allotted their shares by close of business on Thur 5 Oct, so TKR shareholder selling may start Fri 6 Oct.(see YT's post #206)

I think I will look to sell into this rise & hopefully buy back in at a lower price after any selling is flushed out & we have seen what October has in store for us.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 September 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Announement from CBH stated TKR shareholders would be allotted their shares by close of business on Thur 5 Oct, so TKR shareholder selling may start Fri 6 Oct.(see YT's post #206)
> 
> I think I will look to sell into this rise & hopefully buy back in at a lower price after any selling is flushed out & we have seen what October has in store for us.




 :iagree:


----------



## rwkni1 (29 September 2006)

I guess that strategy makes sense, but it depends on the sort of uplift you think the company will receive from the announcement of full production. That news is also likely to come out not long after October 5th, and may negate all of the sell orders from ex-Triako shareholders. Also, you'd think that a certain percentage of those shareholders may do a little bit of research on CBH and come to the conclusion that it is hugely undervalued themselves.


----------



## Sean K (29 September 2006)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> I guess that strategy makes sense, but it depends on the sort of uplift you think the company will receive from the announcement of full production. That news is also likely to come out not long after October 5th, and may negate all of the sell orders from ex-Triako shareholders. Also, you'd think that a certain percentage of those shareholders may do a little bit of research on CBH and come to the conclusion that it is hugely undervalued themselves.




I agree that the ann to full production will benefit the sp and might offset the TKR shareholders selling. If they do. 

I like the chart atm and thik $0.50 is achievable in the next few days, pending commodity stability.

Long term it's still trending up.


----------



## michael_selway (29 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I agree that the ann to full production will benefit the sp and might offset the TKR shareholders selling. If they do.
> 
> I like the chart atm and thik $0.50 is achievable in the next few days, pending commodity stability.
> 
> Long term it's still trending up.




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 12.2 17.1 17.2 
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0 

New forecasts out

thx

MS


----------



## Sean K (30 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> EPS -2.8 12.2 17.1 17.2
> DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0
> ...




Can you check that pls MS?

EPS from 17.1 to 17.2 in 2008-09, but
DPS 4.0 to 10?


----------



## tasmanian (30 September 2006)

gday kennas,

i checked its correct as of comsec website.not bad if it proves correct.div yield in 2009 at current pices would be over 20%.say u buy 50000 now.

if cbh does payout a 10c div holy smoke how undervalued is cbh atm???

cheers


----------



## Sean K (30 September 2006)

tasmanian said:
			
		

> gday kennas,
> 
> i checked its correct as of comsec website.not bad if it proves correct.div yield in 2009 at current pices would be over 20%.say u buy 50000 now.
> 
> ...




I think I'm going to call the company to check. .10c div on a .45c stock? Holy smoke!!!!!! I'll buy 500K!


----------



## tasmanian (30 September 2006)

let us know what cbh say kennas id be very interested to know.

im already holding a fair whack but like you say buy 500k and that would give u a divie payout of $50,000pa.theres a fair whack of the ave  yearly wage without even having to get out of bed.lol. i like the idea of that.

if the endevaour mine gets up too full production soon and sulfur springs not far away now as well looking good.have u been keeping an eye on zinc stockpiles?they are still dropping nicely.zinc is stil rising as well so alls looking good the sp of cbh is finally starting to reflect it as well.

might be getting close to top up time??see how next fri pans out 1st.but that div payout does sound too good to be true but sounds v possible to me.

cheers


----------



## Sean K (30 September 2006)

tasmanian said:
			
		

> let us know what cbh say kennas id be very interested to know.
> 
> im already holding a fair whack but like you say buy 500k and that would give u a divie payout of $50,000pa.theres a fair whack of the ave  yearly wage without even having to get out of bed.lol. i like the idea of that.
> 
> ...




Will do.

It is a 2009 forecast. They could have the side of Endeavour fall in again between now and then!


----------



## tasmanian (30 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Will do.
> 
> It is a 2009 forecast. They could have the side of Endeavour fall in again between now and then!




yeah i think thats the worry atm.


----------



## porkpie324 (30 September 2006)

I'm also interesred in thet 2008 div, not only are zinc stocks falling so is lead spot prices at 2 year highs with stocks falling too. porkpie


----------



## michael_selway (30 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Can you check that pls MS?
> 
> EPS from 17.1 to 17.2 in 2008-09, but
> DPS 4.0 to 10?





Yes because maybe less capex costs by 2009 as sulfur springs will be up and running already, thus they can pay out more from EPS as dividend

*ZFX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 283.9 194.8 117.4 
DPS 80.0 140.0 88.3 53.2 

CBH - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 12.2 17.1 17.2 
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0 * 

thx

MS


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (2 October 2006)

It would appear from the price action that the scoping study for the Open Pit Project over in W.A. is about to hit the mkt,

Lots of sellers around 50c ish level though


----------



## Sean K (2 October 2006)

I'm out at $0.48.


----------



## michael_selway (2 October 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> It would appear from the price action that the scoping study for the Open Pit Project over in W.A. is about to hit the mkt,
> 
> Lots of sellers around 50c ish level though




There might be a ST sell-off, but do u think it will be short lived, and then go past its all time high and more? I mean zinc prices are really getting firmer (on warrant dropping and no "ins") and CBH forward PE isnt considered high, and mine life is not bad at about 16 years, endeavor looks to be on track to be full production, also take over target?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 12.2 17.1 17.2 
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0 

thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (3 October 2006)

im out at 0.48 for the mean time. look at resistance up to 50 cents and beyond. im waiting for triako holders to dump and then get back in. its true what YT said remember there are an extra 100 million shares going through on friday.

lots of triako shareholders will be wanting their money back for a bid they saw as cheap compared to value of triako.

fri will be interesting anyway. even if some large sellers occur will affect sp


----------



## porkpie324 (3 October 2006)

I'm also out at .48, will look to buy back on any weakness. If I'm not sure whether to quit a holding I always ask myself would I buy at the present time, if the answer is no then I sell. 100ml shares coming on the market which is I think about an extra 20% is a lot for the market to digest, if the share price holds during this period is only good news for CBH. porkpie


----------



## michael_selway (3 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> I'm also out at .48, will look to buy back on any weakness. If I'm not sure whether to quit a holding I always ask myself would I buy at the present time, if the answer is no then I sell. 100ml shares coming on the market which is I think about an extra 20% is a lot for the market to digest, if the share price holds during this period is only good news for CBH. porkpie





Do you know exactly when TKR can potentially start dumping their CBH shares?

thx

MS


----------



## Morgan (3 October 2006)

I'm out on the sideline at 48c to watch for a while.
Mainly because has had a good run up in the last week and starting to look close to overbought on Relative Strength Index.
Not sure about the effect of the extra shares to come on line- in theory, even though there will be extra CBH shares on the market, the price of the diluted shares should in effect be the sum of the original CBH value + TKR value component added to this (as the value of CBH company now includes the value of the TKR assets). Net effect should be negligible.
However as mentioned previously, selling pressure will depend on whether ex TKR holders want to keep their newly allocated CBH shares. 

On the other hand, most shares I sell skyrocket soon after!  :


----------



## nizar (3 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Do you know exactly when TKR can potentially start dumping their CBH shares?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




friday
i plan on picking some up on the day for low 40s


----------



## Sean K (3 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> friday
> i plan on picking some up on the day for low 40s




I'll be in there too mate, if that's the case. Should be interesting morning.


----------



## porkpie324 (4 October 2006)

looks as though we'll all be there waiting for a bargain. porkpie


----------



## Sean K (4 October 2006)

You know this means it'll go to $0.60 on the open Fri morn...


----------



## porkpie324 (4 October 2006)

Why not have friday off and all meet up for a beer.porkpie


----------



## Sean K (4 October 2006)

Maybe we could take an esky into 500 Collins and sit and watch the ticker downing a few tubes.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (4 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Maybe we could take an esky into 500 Collins and sit and watch the ticker downing a few tubes.





lol


----------



## maverick11 (5 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> friday
> i plan on picking some up on the day for low 40s




might get there today   : 

looks like a bit of panic selling already?


----------



## michael_selway (5 October 2006)

maverick11 said:
			
		

> might get there today   :
> 
> looks like a bit of panic selling already?




Yeah  it might, also base metal prices down a bit yesterday

thx

MS


----------



## ned1 (5 October 2006)

*Re: CBH - Pent up demand*

It seems to me that there is quite a bit of demand from people waiting on the sidelines second guessing whether the TKR holders will dump on the market tomorrow.


----------



## dj_420 (5 October 2006)

well i think in 6 months time anyone holding a decent zinc stock will be laughing. im thinking long term with CBH.

i bought half my holding back in at 0.46 cents just in case. if it goes either way i can average down or up depending on TKR holders. 

long term this stock is a winner. after TKR dust settles i will just keep accumulating on dips and wait for LME exchange to run out of zinc.

i think YT was right, i was looking at some gold stocks but best bets in the medium term are uranium and zinc. not much else has fundamentals that will drive the price like these two.

i hold half my CBH and JML. JML looks good to once they start producing. sp taken a hammering lately and chance to top up.


----------



## porkpie324 (5 October 2006)

dj, your probably dead right there, in 6 months time CBH will a winner, but at the mo the quotes are looking a bit top heavy, I sold on monday at .48 and will look at buying again during any share placement weakness, if the sp holds its only good news for CBH. porkpie


----------



## ned1 (5 October 2006)

*Re: CBH - How far will it fall?*

Any thoughts on how far this may fall tomorrow?

My bet is down to 40.5 c

Then a massive rebound followed by another retrace to 43. That is if there are no positive announcements.


----------



## dubiousinfo (5 October 2006)

*Re: CBH - How far will it fall?*



			
				ned1 said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on how far this may fall tomorrow?
> 
> My bet is down to 40.5 c
> 
> Then a massive rebound followed by another retrace to 43. That is if there are no positive announcements.




I dont think this will just tank tomorrow. More likely that the selling will be spaced out over the next few weeks with a slow decline in price till the selling eases.


----------



## ned1 (5 October 2006)

*Re: CBH - How far will it fall?*



			
				dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> I dont think this will just tank tomorrow. More likely that the selling will be spaced out over the next few weeks with a slow decline in price till the selling eases.




Fully agree. The only factor that may change this is positive announcements over the comming weeks together with a sudden increase in the spot price.


----------



## michael_selway (5 October 2006)

*Re: CBH - How far will it fall?*



			
				ned1 said:
			
		

> Fully agree. The only factor that may change this is positive announcements over the comming weeks together with a sudden increase in the spot price.




You also have to take into account daily Zinc Prices

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS


----------



## Beethoven (5 October 2006)

CBH is cheap at the moment.  I cant wait till tomorrow so i can buy back in .


----------



## saichuen (5 October 2006)

imho, i think CBH will be a good stock to hold for the medium and long term outlook. i'm still holding on to all my current CBH shares and will definitely look forward to top up again if the rumour of the TKR holders are dumping their shares is true (though i still find it a bit strange if they do)?


----------



## Sean K (6 October 2006)

CBH holding OK. TKR shareholders keeping their new stock in the most part by the looks. Volume even down a bit. 

I see CBH still trading generally up, except for that big spike which sent it a bit ballistic. I also see some support now between $0.45 and $0.42, pending any more enormous shifts in commodity prices, which could happen in this environment. One way or the other....


----------



## dj_420 (6 October 2006)

hey has anyone bought back in yet?

didnt seem to work as well as i thought, i can buy rest back in for cheaper than exit price anyway.

although we need some nice ann re 100% production to give it a boost again


----------



## nizar (6 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> although we need some nice ann re 100% production to give it a boost again




or the sulfur springs BFS results


----------



## Sean K (6 October 2006)

Small cup and handle formed during an upward tred. Bullish sign. Set for rise. Just on probabilities. Doesn't always occur. Interesting to see if it eventuates here. As it's only a relatively small cup, shouldn't see too much of a boost. Supposedly the distance from the tips of the cup to the bottom. $0.07 ish....


----------



## porkpie324 (6 October 2006)

I hav'nt bought back in yet, looking at the quotes right now the main support appears to be .41c-.43c. porkpie


----------



## dj_420 (6 October 2006)

back in, i thought i dont wanna be out when news comes out. i can accumulate more anyway on dips. 

i dont really like trying to be in and out playing market. i am thinking more long term anyway.

BTW apparantly TKR shareholders have been trading since yesterday so we picked the wrong day anyway. or i did at least.

seems there wasnt a huge dump and that many TKR shareholders are holding must be impressed with whats going on at CBH.

im just glad to be back in regardless, i know ill (and other holders) be the long term winner in 6 months plus


----------



## dj_420 (8 October 2006)

a few points on last weeks trading. there was some slight weakness in price around mid week. the TKR shareholders were actually able to start trading on wed which coupled with weaker zinc prices lead to a slight sp decline.

on fri a lot of ppl were expecting a big dump of shares, i see the action that happened as really good news. obviously TKR shareholders have researched into CBH and like what they saw and are holding. there were a few ppl who have obviously sold however there are many buyers to pick up cheaper shares for this one.

i got back in on the action at the end of the week, which judging by the price of zinc at the end of the week is good news.

LME stocks are still dropping and ppl are starting to realise the great fundamentals that a sound zinc company holds. zinc prices on LME are pushing back over 1.60 great news for all the zinc stocks already producing.


----------



## Kipp (8 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> LME stocks are still dropping and ppl are starting to realise the great fundamentals that a sound zinc company holds. zinc prices on LME are pushing back over 1.60 great news for all the zinc stocks already producing.




Yep.. 1.60!!!.. tomorrow is guna be big for ZFX, CBH PEM etc...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (8 October 2006)

I thought I'd add that Zinc has a wee bit more work to do, it has to get up above and hold $1.60/$1.62 as support before it can then technically push on to $1.80


----------



## nizar (8 October 2006)

hmmm.... why is 1.60 seen as a milestone?
it has been trading btw 1.40-1.60 since may... the way i see it, no biggie


----------



## porkpie324 (9 October 2006)

I have just put a limit buy at .45c, I got out last week at .485c. porkpie


----------



## dj_420 (9 October 2006)

zinc spot price is up to 1.68 now pushing 1.70, fundamentals looking great. kennas chart shows apart from the run we had recently CBH is trading well in that channel and is showing support from 40 cents right up to 45 cents. 

maybe zinc prices are starting their run early, im hoping price can hold above 1.60 and form some decent support. 

zinc stocks should start gaining a lot more interest soon, its looking good.


----------



## nizar (9 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> zinc spot price is up to 1.68 now pushing 1.70, fundamentals looking great.
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> maybe zinc prices are starting their run early, im hoping price can hold above 1.60 and form some decent support.
> 
> zinc stocks should start gaining a lot more interest soon, its looking good.




once zinc breaks 1.80, which is the high for this cycle reached in may, there will be no overhead resistance - and zinc will RUN - and u would wanna get set before that i reckoN!

CBH im a bit iffy but KZL no hesistation


----------



## porkpie324 (11 October 2006)

looks like all the sellors have come on this morning going by the quotes. porkpie


----------



## dj_420 (11 October 2006)

all the sellers came and then buyers stacked up out of nowhere. ive had a look over the yearly report and the projects look very very good. lots of growth and development and lots of tennements for exploration.

CBH now back up a couple of cents and looks to me to be showing increased interest. could be SS BFS due very soon. what does anyone else think, im glad i got back in on the action.


----------



## Sean K (11 October 2006)

I'd like to see it get through $0.50. Had a couple of attempts but ran out of puff. Should be support from $0.40-43 to trade off perhaps.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 October 2006)

Just a thought, I could be and probably am wrong, 

But it wouldn't suprise me if SP was being manipulated up so as to allow TKR holders to sell,

The 'manipulation' that I refer to is some simple buying by a broker which combined with the fact that there is strong rises in Zinc spot price flowing on to the likes of ZFX, KZL and PEM, draws mkt buying on alot quicker,


----------



## powerkoala (11 October 2006)

YT, you assume after certain point, TKR holders will dump this ?
Hmm, seems to me they rather hold while Zinc price continues to rise and CBH goes for full production tis month.


----------



## dj_420 (11 October 2006)

possibly, but this morning sellers stacked up and then buyers began to appear, then woosh a heap of buy placements have gone down. 

someone has to be buying the shares though. how can you place fake buys in and then once it goes through what do you do with shares??

sp is up, someone is buying these shares.


----------



## powerkoala (11 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> possibly, but this morning sellers stacked up and then buyers began to appear, then woosh a heap of buy placements have gone down.
> 
> someone has to be buying the shares though. how can you place fake buys in and then once it goes through what do you do with shares??
> 
> sp is up, someone is buying these shares.




That's true.
But funny, i never see so much buyer and seller except today. 1 M both sides? weird...


----------



## powerkoala (11 October 2006)

now it looks to me that tis is a real buy.
touch 50c now, jeez.. i should in when 46c


----------



## Beethoven (11 October 2006)

powerkoala said:
			
		

> now it looks to me that tis is a real buy.
> touch 50c now, jeez.. i should in when 46c




If this goes beyond 50 cents i would probably buy back in.


----------



## Sean K (11 October 2006)

powerkoala said:
			
		

> now it looks to me that tis is a real buy.
> touch 50c now, jeez.. i should in when 46c




PK, $0.50 will have some resistance, it's not a sure thing to break though. 

If a cup and handle has been formed however, my next target is $0.57, pending any remarkeable anns, or commodity moves.


----------



## powerkoala (11 October 2006)

the only resistance now is 50c... 1.4M now... that is really big sellers 
let see how far this sp will go


----------



## dj_420 (11 October 2006)

some big resistance but showing good support also. look at volume 15 million plus to push up 2.5 cents. large amount of buyers and sellers have come out of the woodwork.

all we need is endeaver ann, and SS BFS which will be great IMO, just waiting for confirmation. if you guys doubt this stock have a look through the yearly report, many projects coming on line over next year or so and many tennements for exp. 

obviously others feel the same, there has been steady buying all day. zinc fundamentals look fantastic and all good zinc stocks will be running soon.


----------



## Beethoven (11 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> some big resistance but showing good support also. look at volume 15 million plus to push up 2.5 cents. large amount of buyers and sellers have come out of the woodwork.
> 
> all we need is endeaver ann, and SS BFS which will be great IMO, just waiting for confirmation. if you guys doubt this stock have a look through the yearly report, many projects coming on line over next year or so and many tennements for exp.
> 
> obviously others feel the same, there has been steady buying all day. zinc fundamentals look fantastic and all good zinc stocks will be running soon.




wholly molly some big buyer just bought out the 50 cent resistance level


----------



## dj_420 (11 October 2006)

i was out at 48 cents last week then back in at 45 cents, didnt wanna be out of the market when good ann come out. 

you getting back in powerkoala? nizar is waiting for another couple positive ann first. 

IMO all this stock needs to break resistance and see some new highs is 100% production at endevour and great SS BFS.


----------



## powerkoala (11 October 2006)

unbelievable...
1.4M gone ... in a sec ????
this really is something going on...


----------



## dj_420 (11 October 2006)

whoah! that was a big buy, smashed out that 1 and half million shares sitting on 50 cents. obviously someone wants this stock!

what are other opinions?


----------



## powerkoala (11 October 2006)

now i confuse whether to jump back in or wait..... ??  
YT, what is your opinion now?


----------



## Beethoven (11 October 2006)

hmmm im not sure what to take of all this buying.  Its going up on no news.  I wonder when the ann of endeavour project is coming out??  Maybe news leak? Or maybe a little bit of market manipulation??


----------



## Sean K (11 October 2006)

I have a bunch of stocks on my watch list jumping more than this.

The bull is back. 

Just pick the right bull, and learn how to fall.


----------



## powerkoala (11 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I have a bunch of stocks on my watch list jumping more than this.
> 
> The bull is back.
> 
> Just pick the right bull, and learn how to fall.




True, XAO pass 5241 mark....
some of my "dead" stocks also moving ... 
hmm...


----------



## CanOz (11 October 2006)

CBH put in a darn good show today. Lots of stocks doing the same. My stock scanner should be full of breakouts.

Cheers,


----------



## michael_selway (12 October 2006)

powerkoala said:
			
		

> YT, you assume after certain point, TKR holders will dump this ?
> Hmm, seems to me they rather hold while Zinc price continues to rise and CBH goes for full production tis month.




good point, why woudl anyoen want to dump a cheap stock with the best mix of metals atm ie zinc and lead?

thx

MS


----------



## Speedbird675 (13 October 2006)

Hmmm .. wonder whats going on .. down 1.92%. Considering Zinc prices on the LME highest since mid may with a 3 month backwardation of $27/tonne, and Lead prices at an all time high of $1524/t with a 3 month backwardation of 64 bucks.

Comments welcome.

P.S. Zinc prices still very bullish this year.


----------



## Sean K (13 October 2006)

Speedbird675 said:
			
		

> Hmmm .. wonder whats going on .. down 1.92%. Considering Zinc prices on the LME highest since mid may with a 3 month backwardation of $27/tonne, and Lead prices at an all time high of $1524/t with a 3 month backwardation of 64 bucks.
> 
> Comments welcome.
> 
> P.S. Zinc prices still very bullish this year.




It's had a good run lately speedbird. Nothing goes verticle, without dying. Just profit taking I'd say.


----------



## dj_420 (13 October 2006)

bit of consolidation before next leg up. CBH battled through a lot of resistance to get above 50 cents, i just want to see us close above this level and push on from here. today would have been a good day for 100% production ann to keep momentum going.

i want to top up and get some more anyway so its a chance to pick up a few more before the next run. 

what does everyone think of the yearly report, i thought that there is a great lot of projects going on and tenements for exp.


----------



## powerkoala (13 October 2006)

Profit taking...
every up must go down a bit before goes high again... :


----------



## dj_420 (13 October 2006)

did this image attach, CBH is trading nicely in this channel with the exception of the previous breakout. moving day averages indicate that this is still in an uptrend.

if im wrong please correct me. only new to tech analysis.


----------



## sleeper88 (13 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> bit of consolidation before next leg up. CBH battled through a lot of resistance to get above 50 cents, i just want to see us close above this level and push on from here. today would have been a good day for 100% production ann to keep momentum going.
> 
> i want to top up and get some more anyway so its a chance to pick up a few more before the next run.
> 
> what does everyone think of the yearly report, i thought that there is a great lot of projects going on and tenements for exp.




After going through the report i think CBH has huge potential with several projects coming online (Sulphur Springs, Rasp Mine and possibly Constance range + Hera) over the next 2 yrs + good exploration projects at Napier Range and Panorama JVs

Could be a major resource player in australia in the not too distant future?..producing Zn, Cu, Ag, Pb, Au, Fe?

all they need is some Ni and U  :


----------



## Sean K (13 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> did this image attach, CBH is trading nicely in this channel with the exception of the previous breakout. moving day averages indicate that this is still in an uptrend.
> 
> if im wrong please correct me. only new to tech analysis.




Looks good DJ. Set a ma at 100 or 200 as well to see long term trend. 200d ma is considered to be pretty important for long term support. You will notice many company sp's bounce off this level just because of that mind set.


----------



## dj_420 (13 October 2006)

hey kennas here it is with a tighter trading channel and 7 and 200 MDA.
this channel shows false breakout and possible new breakout.


----------



## Sean K (13 October 2006)

Yep, you can put in as many channels as you can fit in with charts riding the support and resistance lines to get a picture of a stock. Of course, some poeple will draw in lines to suit what they WANT to see also. Having said that, it's clear to me CBH is going UP, no matter which way you look at it. If you wipe out the April/May abberation, it's pretty good isn't it. Perhaps a strategy for this stock would be to buy when it was at the lower part of the range and sell at the top. Sort of like buying at the base of Bollinger Bands and selling at the top. Or, if commodities don't crash severely, this is a long term winner.


----------



## michael_selway (16 October 2006)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> After going through the report i think CBH has huge potential with several projects coming online (Sulphur Springs, Rasp Mine and possibly Constance range + Hera) over the next 2 yrs + good exploration projects at Napier Range and Panorama JVs
> 
> Could be a major resource player in australia in the not too distant future?..producing Zn, Cu, Ag, Pb, Au, Fe?
> 
> all they need is some Ni and U  :




hehe yep, if only there was a rumour of Ni and U   

thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (17 October 2006)

the yearly report has just confirmed everything for me, like everyone has been saying great projects coming online in next year or so, endeavour should be back at 100% production and zinc spot prices still increasing.

i like the movement we have been getting in last week or so, slow and steady wins the race, its great to see it break the 50 cents and hold, decent support building 50 cents and above. from 47 cents upwards there is a lot of support. 

resistance doesnt seem to be pushing sp around as much now. i think the bears have run out of puff and the bulls are back, seems a good bet with zinc fundamentals.

is everyone waiting for an ann from CBH re endeavour? its possible they could be already back on 100% production, as they already stated in presentations and report that they would be back on full production for this qtr, would they announce this to the market also??


----------



## sleeper88 (17 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> the yearly report has just confirmed everything for me, like everyone has been saying great projects coming online in next year or so, endeavour should be back at 100% production and zinc spot prices still increasing.
> 
> i like the movement we have been getting in last week or so, slow and steady wins the race, its great to see it break the 50 cents and hold, decent support building 50 cents and above. from 47 cents upwards there is a lot of support.
> 
> ...




hey dj, if endeavour is back to 100% they'll inform the market immediately coz it'll do wonders for the sp, possibly giving it a push towards 60c and beyond..so fingers crossed


----------



## nizar (17 October 2006)

Endeavour 100% would be at least partially factored in to the current sp u would think.

But gee those sulfur springs BFS results are taking their time....


----------



## dj_420 (17 October 2006)

i dont know if they will announce it as they have already stated in the past oct is 100% production. may be im wrong.

anyway zinc spot has broken 1.80, its looking good for zinc stocks today, should be good action with ZFX, KZL, CBH, JML, TZN, AIM probably forgotten a few. but copper, nickel and lead are all up also so should be another good day for all the miners.


----------



## ned1 (17 October 2006)

6,700,000+ already traded

Earlier this morning one buyer bought 926,226 shares at 56c.

This is moving nicely.


----------



## Out Too Soon (17 October 2006)

I jumped on board at 48c, just wish I'd bought more.


----------



## dj_420 (17 October 2006)

i dont see it slowing down anytime soon. as soon as we get some more positive ann to market re 100% production and SS BFS i think it will continue momentum. as well as spot zinc price increases.

im still topping up at these prices, there is still a few months before LME zinc stocks hit a critical level. IMO thats when we will see some real action for zinc stocks.


----------



## dj_420 (17 October 2006)

i see this increase as a much more sustained rise than the previous breakout. a month or so ago CBH ran ahead of itself and then showed almost a 100% retracement back to show support at 43 cents plus.

IMO this rise is much healthier for the stock overall, gradually increasing each day and bringing the support up with it. this stock has been increasing in interest and is showing support right back under 50 cents now. 

i would like to see increased support 50 cents plus to keep this stock above old trading channel. resistance has been thinning out as this stock broke above 50 cents, prior to 50 cents resistance was stacked to the wall. maybe sellers are beginning to see the sense in holding a zinc stock going into the new year.


----------



## nizar (17 October 2006)

Can any1 here please confirm for me CBH's zinc METAL (not concentrate) production from endeavour (at 100%)

Also - is CBH fully unhedged?
Somehow i think not since i cant find it in any of their presentations and this is a major selling point. Hegarty always ramps this point home in his bloomberg interviews and also its well known that KZL and ZFX are hedged from their presentations and results.


----------



## 2020hindsight (17 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Can any1 here please confirm for me CBH's zinc METAL (not concentrate) production from endeavour (at 100%)
> 
> Also - is CBH fully unhedged?
> Somehow i think not since i cant find it in any of their presentations and this is a major selling point. Hegarty always ramps this point home in his bloomberg interviews and also its well known that KZL and ZFX are hedged from their presentations and results.



Nizar - how the hell can we tell you UNLESS we concentrate !! - sheesh some people 

(Sorry - its an old joke  - the blond at the fridge door staring at the carton marked "orange concentrate"  )  ahhh time I went to bed. adios amigo - let me know when you know the answer.


----------



## sleeper88 (18 October 2006)

stormed pasted 60c


----------



## nizar (18 October 2006)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> stormed pasted 60c



all-time high close
EOD trader will feast into this 2mrw, obvious breakout

blue-skies now


----------



## sleeper88 (18 October 2006)

yup..all blue skies ahead...according to comsec, there's no sellers beyond 95c..very rare for such a liquid stock..should fill up 2molo morning btw..closed at 62c


----------



## GRIZ (18 October 2006)

Sorry if stupid question, new to this. why is this an obvious break out, how is this different from may 8th - ie fell back very quickly. How do you work out what to sell at from chart or are you waiting for news. thanks, good trading.


----------



## Realist (18 October 2006)

Wish I'd bought more in the first place...


----------



## tasmanian (18 October 2006)

not too late imo realist to buy more!!!looking like its going higher along with zinc


----------



## nizar (18 October 2006)

GRIZ said:
			
		

> Sorry if stupid question, new to this. why is this an obvious break out, how is this different from may 8th - ie fell back very quickly. How do you work out what to sell at from chart or are you waiting for news. thanks, good trading.




we are at ALL TIME HIGHS now
its VERY different

we are in blue skies with no overhead resistance


----------



## sleeper88 (18 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Wish I'd bought more in the first place...




yup..should've loaded up when it was in the mid 30's   

anyways..is $1.00 possible by year end guys?


----------



## tasmanian (18 October 2006)

anythings possible.


----------



## Stan 101 (18 October 2006)

I've bought and sold on this one between the mid 30c and high 40c marks. I am holding now. If there is any short term downturn I think I'll be doing a major topup. roll on $2.40!!!!


----------



## tasmanian (18 October 2006)

Stan 101 $2.40??

yeah i like it good call


----------



## nizar (18 October 2006)

Stan 101 said:
			
		

> I've bought and sold on this one between the mid 30c and high 40c marks. I am holding now. If there is any short term downturn I think I'll be doing a major topup. roll on $2.40!!!!




Hartleys valuation when zinc was us$1.50 was $2.49/share


----------



## dj_420 (18 October 2006)

yeah now that many people know the potential of this one i cant see it falling to hard before been picked up very quickly. im tempted to sell out of some other stocks to top up on this one before price really gets away from me.

if it drops to mid 50's now watch the amount of support jump in and top up. if hartleys valued this at 2.49 then watch out next year we could see some really serious action in next 6 months.


----------



## sleeper88 (18 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> yeah now that many people know the potential of this one i cant see it falling to hard before been picked up very quickly. im tempted to sell out of some other stocks to top up on this one before price really gets away from me.
> 
> if it drops to mid 50's now watch the amount of support jump in and top up. if hartleys valued this at 2.49 then watch out next year we could see some really serious action in next 6 months.




serious action like ZFX and KZL


----------



## Out Too Soon (18 October 2006)

To answer Grizs question "sell in May, go away, buy in November" that's quoting Alan Kohler & if you look at the past it holds true that avg stocks all fall around May but in November we can expect more positive results, of course this is very general & you never know when the rug is about to be pulled out from under our feet. 
Hey I still own croesus shares, anyone want some???


----------



## rwkni1 (19 October 2006)

I think this stock is a smoker, and i've been holding it since the mine collapse when it dropped to 16.5c, but i'd take the $2.40 valuation with a grain of salt. To get that valuation they're assuming zinc prices of $1.50/lb in perpetuity. Having said that, this think is trading on a P/E of around 4x based solely on earnings from Endeavour, not placing any value on Sulpher Springs or Broken Hill. If zinc consolidates around $1.80/lb i'd be banking on around 80c by Christmas. Just my   .


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## dj_420 (19 October 2006)

it depends on what spot price of zinc does. 1.50 is 3300 dollars per tonne, zinc has averaged almost that this year, i think forecasts for the zinc spot price have been conservative when we compare what happened with copper and nickel. 

copper supply has now meet demand and price has still stayed very high compared to historical prices, IMO i think the zinc price will be pushed up quite high on fundamentals and could average out at a higher level similar to copper.

there is 125 000 tonnes left in LME and zinc spot is almost touching 1.80
what would an earnings estimate be for CBH if zinc averaged 1.80 next year (conservative IMO). 

following 2008 zinc price will soften a little as supply meets demand, however i think spot price will remain strong even as zinc inventories begin to build up again in this period. obviously by 2008 global demand will have increased also.

this mornings action saw price soften a little but i think that was to be expected after big push through previous highs. like i posted earlier any weakness in price should see a large increase in buying support.

this is exactly what happened price dropped to 59 cents and buyers quickly appeared, showing a little more support now. we want to some some strong support from 60 cents plus to begin to form a new base of support. 

im wondering when these ann are due?? BFS for SS? and 100% production ann? i want to see the numbers for ss.


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## ned1 (19 October 2006)

Hi all

This should be of interest.

INTERVIEW:Australia CBH Says Zinc Proj Go-Ahead Imminent 
577 words
19 October 2006
17:35
Dow Jones Commodities Service
English
Copyright 2006, Comtex News Network. All Rights Reserved. 

SYDNEY, Oct 19, 2006 (DJCS via Comtex) -- 


By James Attwood
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Australia's CBH Resources Ltd. (CBH.AU) said Thursday it has completed a draft feasibility study into an estimated US$100 million zinc-copper project, with a formal go-ahead decision imminent. 

"From our perspective, it's going to happen," said CBH Chairman James Wall. 

The Sulphur Springs project in Western Australia's Pilbara region is expected to produce at least 75,000 tons a year of zinc concentrates and 65,000 tons of copper concentrates from 2008. 

The company has already placed an around A$9 million order for sag and ball mills with Finnish supplier Outokumpu Oyj, considered long lead time items in the tight global mining materials market. 

"We're doing that because the project economics, without finalizing the feasibility study process, looked very attractive," Wall said. 

He said CBH continues to look at financing options including debt raising and arrangements with off-takers, such as the company's 24.8% shareholder Toho Zinc Co. Ltd. (5707.TO) of Japan. 

But Wall said debt financing is unlikely to entail hedging given the company's bullish outlook for metal prices. 

London Metal Exchange traded lead prices have surged nearly 70% since late June to a series of all-time highs, while zinc, used to galvanize steel, has risen by a third to a record US$4,020 a ton this week. 

"I think zinc is going to go a lot higher than US$4,000," he said, describing lead at around US$1,500 currently as "a beautiful market." 

Wall's confidence is driven by low and still shrinking global stock levels as years of exploration underinvestment and structural expansion barriers constrain the supply side's ability to react to still strong China-led global demand. 

Meanwhile production at the company's flagship Endeavour zinc and lead mine in central New South Wales state is back on track after a lengthy recovery from a "self mining" incident last year, he said. 

"We had a good month in September of about 10,400 tons zinc concentrates and about half that lead and this month looks good as well," he said. The zinc output rate compares with traditional levels of 11,600 tons a month. 

CBH expects to make a development decision next year on its Broken Hill brownfield underground project in NSW. 

In total, the company is looking to reach 300,000 tons annual production to become Australia's third largest zinc miner after Zinifex Ltd. and Xstrata PLC. 

Wall said Toho's nearly 25% stake in CBH Resources affords the company some protection from the recent flurry of merger and acquisition activity in the mining industry and broader Australian equities market. 

He said other mid-sized zinc and lead producers in Australia, Kagara Zinc Ltd and Perilya Ltd, are similarly shielded by Korea Zinc Co Ltd's presence on their share register. 

"To some extent, if someone wants to takes us over they have to do a deal with those companies, which isn't easy." 

Neither is a merger likely between CBH and either Kagara or Perilya, he said. 

"Although the Japanese and Koreans like each other they don't like to get into bed together."


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## Royce (20 October 2006)

From FW Holst stock brokers last report. 

Holst .........although there maybe a very short term pull back in the share price of CBH after such a steep rise, we believe CBH has scope for further share price appreciation ( our valuation 81 cents ).

Could exceed this valuation in the next few weeks 

Royce


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## johnmwu3 (23 October 2006)

CBH well hold above 60c.


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## Sean K (23 October 2006)

Royce said:
			
		

> From FW Holst stock brokers last report.
> 
> Holst .........although there maybe a very short term pull back in the share price of CBH after such a steep rise, we believe CBH has scope for further share price appreciation ( our valuation 81 cents ).
> 
> ...




That would make a very steep rise Royce. Perhaps too steep. Might be scope for it to pull back a bit short term, unless they come out with a great ann about Endeavour being up and running to full capacity. Or has that been announced? I can't see any recent anns regarding that. Another possibility is that people have been buying this waiting for the news and when it is announced, they dump it. Buy the rumour, sell the fact?


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## nizar (23 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Another possibility is that people have been buying this waiting for the news and when it is announced, they dump it. Buy the rumour, sell the fact?




I dont think so.
This stock has been going up for several weeks on high volumes. Its rise has been slow and steady and not of a speculative nature.

Every1 knew this was a great company, just waiting for a decent entry. With endeavour back to 100% being already priced in, in my opinion, and TKR issue resolved, this company is simply being re-rated according to its earnings, pipeline of growth, peer valuations, sulfur springs bfs results are not too far away, and LME zinc firing.

Doesnt seem like a pump and dump to me, its been a slow steady rise, compared to PMH, the other week, or JAK or AUZ, this one's been really gradual.

Im really keen for CBH to form a support around 60, so it can equilibriate around that for this week, and hopefully this will form a long term support base for any retrace in the future.

Quarterly out soon for this company. Everything looks to be in check for this company to reallt fly.

disc. i hold


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## CanOz (23 October 2006)

There was a good article in the Wednesday AFR on zinc producers, CBH was mentioned and the mine 'Endevour' was said to be starting sometime this month. I can't quote from my digital copy, sorry. Overall the article sounded quite positive on CBH and stated that it was or could be, a buying opportunity.

Cheers,


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## dj_420 (23 October 2006)

some bullish signals today, sellers sold pushed price down to 60 cents but buyers have pushed sp back up to previous close. good sign ppl are willing to buy this stock on any weakness.


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## Sean K (23 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> I dont think so.
> This stock has been going up for several weeks on high volumes. Its rise has been slow and steady and not of a speculative nature.
> 
> Every1 knew this was a great company, just waiting for a decent entry. With endeavour back to 100% being already priced in, in my opinion, and TKR issue resolved, this company is simply being re-rated according to its earnings, pipeline of growth, peer valuations, sulfur springs bfs results are not too far away, and LME zinc firing.
> ...




Well, imo, the past 3 weeks or so have been too quick. Not slow and steady really. $0.47 to $0.62, is a massive jump. 30% ish...in 3 weeks....!

Sure, might be being rerated, I just have a bear hat on atm.......sorry.

I hope $0.60 becomes a support line for holders but too early to make that call. What could be forming right now is a bullish pennant. Maybe another jump just around the corner if the Endeavour ann is very positive and this has not been factored in.

Agree with you guys on this been a great company in the stronger for longer scenario. Good luck.


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## Out Too Soon (23 October 2006)

Throw that bear hat away Kennas : , CBH is being revalued by investors based on minerals in the ground etc, charts with pennants etc cant really predict mineral finds can they. I am biased though, I hold CBH & have just bought into ZFX & KZL, I've left my run very late & will soon rename myself "In Too Late".  Seriously tho I think we have at least 2 mths to run, possibly 5.


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## pacer (23 October 2006)

So you you read my posts there at KZL/ZXF   O.T.S....good onya mate, and good luck!


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## ned1 (23 October 2006)

Hi all

On ETRADE it has a sale for 1.5m shares at 61.6c occuring at 4.45pm after the market has closed. Can anyone tell me what type of trade this is?


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## Out Too Soon (23 October 2006)

Hi Pacer, Yep I've now officially got Zinc in my veins, CBH,ZFX,KZL so cross fingers all gos well with the Zinc price. Today has been steady gains on SP.
Does underwater welding have anything to do with Zinc?   we both seem to be following NMS (Neptune) as well.


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## lesm (23 October 2006)

ned1 said:
			
		

> Hi all
> 
> On ETRADE it has a sale for 1.5m shares at 61.6c occuring at 4.45pm after the market has closed. Can anyone tell me what type of trade this is?




The codes represent an off-market transaction (XTSXOS).

It is actually three codes combined, where:
XT - Crossed trade
SX - Portfolio special crossing
OS - Overseas.

Cheers.


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## ned1 (23 October 2006)

Thanks Iesm

Regards Ned


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## sleeper88 (25 October 2006)

is the quarterly report coming out this Friday?


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## Sean K (25 October 2006)

I sold at $0.48 and didn't buy back in........

 :flush:


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## sleeper88 (25 October 2006)

i shouldn't be too late to buy back in


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## michael_selway (25 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I sold at $0.48 and didn't buy back in........
> 
> :flush:




Hi why did u sell out at 0.48?

thx

MS


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## Sean K (25 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi why did u sell out at 0.48?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I now know that I am stupid. 

Well, actually, I was trading this one, not 'investing' in it. So when it hit the resistance line at $0.48 I jumped. After it formed that beautiful cup and handle, I didn't jump back in, which was the mistake. Retrospectively.


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## MalteseBull (26 October 2006)

Looks like CBH is stuck at a .72 resistance


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## michael_selway (26 October 2006)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> Looks like CBH is stuck at a .72 resistance




how do you define resistance?

cause every day it seems resistance increases (for this week anyway)? so in this case is it really resistance?

thx

MS


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## Sean K (26 October 2006)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> Looks like CBH is stuck at a .72 resistance




It's not really resistance just a lack of committed buyers and punters taking profits. Still blue sky for this baby. Poor me.


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## MalteseBull (26 October 2006)

is CBH a good buy at current levels?


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## jollyfrog (26 October 2006)

Well Kennas you might have missed out on higher profits, however by the sounds of things it looks like your holding in Intec will be going places & if im not mistaken VERY shortly! Good luck with this one.
   The company seems to be gathering more stockpiles & will be interesting to see them producing a few ingots of zinc, ( hopefully not too far away now) at least they have the dredge in situ & purchasing of zeehan stockpile is a masterstroke!


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## dj_420 (26 October 2006)

in regards to CBH been a good buy at these levels, well CBH has been valued at 2.49 on an increased spot zinc price, so i think the market is going to keep running. 

it looks like a lot of people are getting set for the zinc run, i didnt think we would see so much action so early on but i am wrong. zinc spot is through the roof at 1.8653 - 1.8880, and that is with 115 000 tonnes left. so i think we are going to see strong action right through till zinc supply runs out and at least six months after that.

so you tell me are zinc stocks a good buy at this level. we havent run out of zinc yet but spot is reacting accordingly and market is jumping on zinc already.

hey kennas at least your holding SMM still, im holding that one until production (long term)


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## johnmwu3 (26 October 2006)

CBH on a mission 


Thursday, 26 October 2006

ORE output at CBH Resources' flagship Endeavour mine continues to climb towards full production, with the company's September quarterly report indicating the mine will return to full capacity in the current quarter.



CBH Resources' Endeavor mine 

Zinc and lead output at the mine increased in excess of 70%, with overall ore production improving by 90,000 tonnes on the previous quarter. However the mine's production of 198,600t was lower than last year's corresponding quarter of 271,533t due to the lingering effects of a ground failure at the operation a year ago. 

CBH is on course to restore full production at Endeavour with the re-establishment of the paste fill distribution system that was damaged in last year's failure. The paste fill system started re-commissioning last month. 

Despite improvement to ore production, zinc and silver grades have slowly decreased since the March quarter report and were currently at 6.3% zinc and 32 grams per tonne silver during the September quarter, while lead values were steady at 3.7%. 
In the March quarter, average head grades were at 7.3% zinc, 3.6% lead and 46gpt silver. 

Meanwhile, continued drilling at Endeavour has upgraded its reserves and resources with a 50% increase to the mineral resource tonnage to 26.3 million tonnes at 6.7% zinc, 4% lead and 71gpt silver. All but 1Mt tonnes are contained in the measured and indicated categories. 

The updated estimate to ore reserves is now at 19.4Mt at 5.7% zinc, 3.3% lead, 0.2% copper and 51gpt silver.

CBH said drilling "still continues to intersect wide zones of mineralisation that remain open at depth".

Development of the company's Panorama and Rasp mines continues, with construction of a 1.25Mt per annum openpit to start next year at the former and a decline design finalised for Rasp, with construction to start in the December quarter on receipt of approvals. 

Exploration at the Cobar district is set for a boost with CBH's recent acquisition of Triako Resources, which has more than doubled tenement positions to one of the largest in the Cobar Basin. 

CBH said exploration and development programs have started, with drilling to begin in the December quarter.

Cash flow from operations in the September quarter was in positive territory at $1.5 million, but was negatively impacted by the 8000t of zinc concentrate in stock at the end of the quarter. CBH estimates the stocks to be worth $8 million at current prices.

At the end of the quarter, CBH had cash resources of $14.8 million and a bank debt of $4.5 million. 

Shares in CBH gained 2c to close at 69c today.


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## Royce (26 October 2006)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> is CBH a good buy at current levels?




Had a really good run lately  ....Wouldn't be suprised to see some profit taking next few days.

Hit 73.5 cents today and then came back with a thud to 69 cents.


Royce


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## dj_420 (26 October 2006)

i wouldnt say come back with a thud, it still closed two cents above yesterdays close. the sp has hardly had time to have a breather.

testing new highs, ten million traded, you cant expect a stock to close on intraday highs every day. i thought today was a good day for CBH, there were obviously profit taking late into the afternoon but sp still up of yesterdays close. 

it has already run through heavy resistance to break 40 cents, then heavy resistance to break 50 cents, resistance in early 50's then broken through previous high to 60 cents plus. 

zinc spot has climbed again overnight, and SS BFS due very soon i would imagine. looked over qtrly and thought it was great, shows what projects are in the pipeline and exp tennements. 

IMO the sp is going very nicely and things are looking fantastic for CBH.


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## nizar (26 October 2006)

Royce said:
			
		

> Had a really good run lately  ....Wouldn't be suprised to see some profit taking next few days.
> 
> Hit 73.5 cents today and then came back with a thud to 69 cents.
> 
> ...




with a thud?? LOL look at this joker let me guess u missed the boat, son


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## Royce (26 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> with a thud?? LOL look at this joker let me guess u missed the boat, son




Definitely not boyo....bought CBH at 7 cents and have enjoyed the journey.

realistically ....share price can't keep going up for ever.




Royce


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## nizar (26 October 2006)

Royce said:
			
		

> Definitely not boyo....bought CBH at 7 cents and have enjoyed the journey.




Good man, I've enjoyed it as well


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## Realist (26 October 2006)

Royce said:
			
		

> .bought CBH at 7 cents and have enjoyed the journey.




Can I borrow some money from you?

Say a small $100,000....


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## 2020hindsight (26 October 2006)

Question ...
Logic demands that a stock wont go up every day for weeks on end. (doesnt it ? lol - sorry I have this naive expectation that logic and the market have something - anything - in common)  
So when do we get the next zigzag? - sell today , buy in a day or 3?

(editors note : only a bludy newbie would use a word like zigzag,  I think he means "triple lightning bolt with pike")

As Elma Fudd said to Bugs Bunny at the entrance to the cave " Ohhh Great Hunting Spirit, Tell me what to do".  
So far I've tried tealeaves , sheep entrails, and rooster blood - STILL waiting for a SIGN here !!!
Lol - I'm gettin greedy I know - guess Im in for the long haul  - review after Xmas maybe ?


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## Out Too Soon (26 October 2006)

Does CBH have a web site? I tried connecting from the ASX page but no connection.
 Wish I'd bought some more.


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## sleeper88 (26 October 2006)

im thinking of topping up at current levels, but i feel its gone for a long hard run already, but one question, is the SS feasibility study somewhat factored into the current sp?


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## sleeper88 (26 October 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Does CBH have a web site? I tried connecting from the ASX page but no connection.
> Wish I'd bought some more.





here's their website http://www.cbhresources.com.au/


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## michael_selway (27 October 2006)

Royce said:
			
		

> Definitely not boyo....bought CBH at 7 cents and have enjoyed the journey.
> 
> realistically ....share price can't keep going up for ever.
> 
> Royce




actually do u know what, i think it can

Its called "irrational exuberance", but thats what happens if real supply cant meet real demand

thx

MS


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## sleeper88 (27 October 2006)

still holding at 70c


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## Out Too Soon (27 October 2006)

Thanks Sleeper, my IE browser gives me a blank blu frame I'll get arond it using my Opera browser, strange never mind. Bad day for nervous traders today even CBH has dropped a cent or 2 so I just topped up with some more


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## johnmwu3 (27 October 2006)

MARKET FEATURE  
INVESTMENT

The commodity bull run is still in its early stages 
October 27, 2006

By Bruce Tinney

The recent major themes of earnings growth, extraordinary cash flow and corporate activity should remain in place for the resources sector.

Strong, concerted growth in global industrial production has been the driving force behind the strength in commodity prices for the past three years. 

Chinese industrial production, which grew at around 10 percent a year during the late 1990s, stepped up a gear to 20 percent. At the same time, Group of Seven (G7) industrial production recovered from the weakness in 2002, growing at an above-trend rate since 2004.

We are in the early stages of a long-term bull market for commodities, which should progress as Asia moves up the development curve. The per capita consumption of commodities for China and India is well below that of developed economies.

Recently, however, the G7 leading indicator has turned down, and globally we are now at the mature end of the current business cycle. 

Historically, metal prices have declined when the US Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates. Oil prices have already corrected, and base metals are expected to follow. It is interesting that the price:earnings ratio of BHP Billiton, the largest miner in the world, is 11.5 times.

This is the same rating on which the company traded at the start of this commodity cycle early in 2003. In other words, the market is rating the company as if this is the end of the cycle, and earnings have peaked. No recognition is being awarded for its extraordinary cash flows, management initiatives, portfolio positioning or project pipeline.

The surge in demand for commodities followed years of underinvestment in production capacity, consequently new supply has simply failed to meet demand, as evidenced by falling metal inventories.

The poor supply-side response is not a short-term phenomenon; as capital and operating costs are rising and quali- fied people are in short supply. 


Consequently, a return to previous trough price levels for commodities is not anticipated and the major themes for the mining industry should remain in place. The rand will continue to weaken, acting as a hedge against any dollar commodity price weakness.

At the half-year, the resource companies reported year-on-year earnings growth in excess of 40 percent. 

While earnings growth momentum for the diversified mining sector should peak in the first half of 2007, forward earnings growth for the platinum and gold producers could be substantial, even at lower metal prices, and forward price:earnings multiples are well below historical averages.

The feature of the mid-year reporting season was the high level of free cash flow, and resulting strength of the balance sheets for the resource firms. 

Over the next 18 months, mining companies should continue to generate above-normal levels of discretionary cash flow at a time when balance sheets are relatively ungeared and mining projects are in short supply.

The excess cash should flow back to shareholders via lower dividend cover, share buy-backs, or special dividends. 

The corporate activity stage of this economic cycle is under way, with some large deals, including CVRD's $15.16 billion (R114 billion) cash offer for Canadian mining house Inco. 

In the absence of greenfields investments, there should be further consolidation of the industry. 

Beneficiaries of corporate action could include Kumba, and some of the smaller platinum miners.



Bruce Tinney is a resources analyst at BoE Private Clients


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## johnmwu3 (28 October 2006)

Zinc Prices set to continue to explode
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, October 27, 2006

Zinc Prices are up 13% over former highs!

Since I'm such a long term thinker and planner, I'm not used to making predictions that come true so strongly within a month, except when I write up a stock, which can move up 30% the next day. 

In my last report on Oct. 11th,
http://silverstockreport.com/email/zinc_lead.html
I wrote that zinc prices were breaking out to new highs, above $1.70/lb., and today, a mere 16 days later, zinc prices hit $1.92/lb., 13% higher.

Most investors don't care about zinc, or don't understand the fundamentals. I'll try to keep it simple.

Zinc inventories at the LME are the primary location for zinc stockpiles in the world. Zinc inventories are being rapidly depleted from a high of about 700,000 metric tonnes in 2004, and yet now stand at just over 100,000 tonnes. 
Source:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html
(You have to check out the kitco graphs at the link above, it says everything!)

These zinc tonnes are 3.5 days worth of world demand, and will last about 100 days. Confused? The 3.5-day figure assumes all zinc mining in the world stops completely. The 100-day figure assumes zinc mining will continue, and that the deficit between demand and supply will consume the stockpile in about 100 days, unless things change in the next 100 days. 

The only thing that can change, and must change, is the zinc price. Prices must rise to choke off world zinc demand. 

Think about that for a moment. Mildly rising interest rates are probably not capable of slowing down the growth of the world economy. It has come down to the lack of zinc that is more likely going to do it, because about 75% of zinc is used to galvanize steel, for use in things like cars and building construction.

The annual deficit in zinc is about 420,000 metric tonnes.
Source:
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=144642

Again, you can see that the 113,000 tonnes of zinc left will only last just over 3 months, unless prices rise high enough to choke off world zinc demand.

The reason why mine supply will not increase in the next 3 months is that it takes about 5-10 years to bring new mines to production. In short, people do not understand how slow, how difficult, and how expensive it is to rev up the "old economy". It's not as easy as throwing up a web site, or writing an article, or buying a stock tomorrow. Even if many of the zinc projects were fully funded, and they are not, it would still take years from today to increase zinc production!

Many of the zinc market leaders are saying that it will take at least 2 years from today to increase zinc production. That includes projects in the mine construction phase, such as Apex Silver in Bolivia, which seems to be having trouble with the newly elected Bolivian dictator repeatedly saying he will confiscate the entire mining industry! Many zinc production estimates were counting on projects such as Yukon Zinc's Wolverine deposit coming to production, which recently hit feasibility difficulties. Feasibility was also delayed on Metalline Mining, which recently announced that they may take up to 12 to 18 months more to complete feasibility. And after feasibility then comes project financing, which may take 6-12 months, and then mine construction that can also take a few years!

I'm absolutely convinced that we must see a bubble in zinc prices within the next 3 months to choke off world zinc demand, or else we will run out of zinc. Furthermore, such higher zinc prices must stay high for the next 2 years! The reason is that the paper futures market manipulators cannot short to death a physical commodity that requires delivery! But zinc prices may continue higher even after 2 years! Two years from now, supply and demand still may, or may not, be in balance, but we can evaluate things then. Or even within 3 months!

The 3-month zinc supply must last 2 years--8 times longer than current rates of depletion indicate!


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## Out Too Soon (29 October 2006)

Zinc is doomed!!  
I've added some more CBH, ZFX, & KZL too what I already held. Rationally my added exposure will jinx the sp completly. : 
OK! not really.


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## Brasidas (30 October 2006)

There is a good discussion of the next "nickel" sector - zinc - in this week's Minesite weekly roundup which is here in full.

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia 

By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?

Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.

Minews. A few price examples please?

Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.

Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?

Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.

Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?

Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.

Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?

Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Much on the downside?

Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3894


----------



## Stan 101 (30 October 2006)

I've just topped up twice at 70 cents. I had a buy at 65 cents over the weekend thinking the week might start in a bit of a downturn. I was wrong.
If It breaks through the low 70's are we looking at consolodating at about 80 cents?


Cheers,


----------



## CanOz (31 October 2006)

Am I right in thinking this stock is not finished yet? We should see some kind off blow off high before it consolidates/reverses correct? (not that a reversal is on the cards given zinc’s strength) Any EW enthusiasts want to have a guess at the top of this trend?

I'm unsure of an exit point and would appreciate some opinions.


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

Some TA people over at S/S reckon 0.92 is the target.
92c on the current run is described as "the best possible result"

I havent thought what to do with these yet but im leaning towards bottom drawer. I wanna see what happens to zinc stocks where the stocks get to below 50ktonnes.


----------



## CanOz (31 October 2006)

Nizar, what other zinc stocks do you like? 

What are your thoughts on MLS?

Cheers,


----------



## dj_420 (31 October 2006)

interesting when comparing CBH with ZFX and KZL over a number of timeframes. when compared on two years ZFX and KZL have clearly outperformed CBH. 

however when we compare on the last years performance CBH has outperformed ZFX in terms of percentage gained. when we compare to KZL, KZL has outperformed CBH but as late CBH is closing the gap in regards to percentage gained.

these differences are obviously due to size etc, as the stock increases in market cap to a very large size obvisouly sp growth will slow in comparison.

IMO if the current trend continues CBH will accelerate and overtake other zinc stocks in terms of percentage gained due to the fact that the sp is increasing from comparitavely low levels.


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Nizar, what other zinc stocks do you like?
> 
> What are your thoughts on MLS?
> 
> Cheers,




My favourite is KZL. ZFX's profits for this year i think will suprise even the most bullish of analysts/brokers.

KZL's rate of production growth is really stunning.


----------



## 2020hindsight (31 October 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Zinc is doomed!! I've added some more CBH, ZFX, & KZL too what I already held. Rationally my added exposure will jinx the sp completly.



OTS - you mean we're all on a Zinc-ing ship  - I'd have to say its looking more like a space ship - and the sky's the limit!!
...............
Disclaimer - I dont even have to post a disclaimer - everyone knows I'm just guessing when it comes to the facts.  But I sure as hell know that, irrespective of whether he's right more often, an optimist sure is happier than a pessimist


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> interesting when comparing CBH with ZFX and KZL over a number of timeframes. when compared on two years ZFX and KZL have clearly outperformed CBH.
> 
> however when we compare on the last years performance CBH has outperformed ZFX in terms of percentage gained. when we compare to KZL, KZL has outperformed CBH but as late CBH is closing the gap in regards to percentage gained.
> 
> ...




Yeh?
We will see about that.
Notice how KZL doesnt need volume to run, whereas CBH does. CBH's sell side is perenially stacked as there are 800million shares on issue, compared to KZL's 200million.

Im holding both so i couldnt care less to be honest, but i do expect substantial gains from these two...

And whatever happened to those BFS results...


----------



## CanOz (31 October 2006)

Great charts DJ...

Thanks Nizar.


----------



## dj_420 (31 October 2006)

good points nizar

however, ill make a few assumptions from here.
for CBH to make it to the hartleys valuation of $2.49 (say 2.50) that is an approximate increase on current sp by 350%, which is based on a spot zinc price that remains at high levels which based on fundamentals is achievable.

if we assume the same percentage gains for zinc stocks from here on in that 350% gain would put KZL on $25.90 and ZFX on $53.10, i just dont see earnings justifying those inflated sp.

anyway these are just hypotheticals that i like to throw in there.


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

DJ, i think CBH are substantially undervalued due not only to their earnings, but their production growth profile.

They should valued more more KZL and less like ZFX.

If zinc averages us$2/lb this year, KZL i suspect will earn $1/share NPAT (maybe even a 10c divvy or something? but im not fussed - im here for capital gains). PE of 20 is fair enough for a company that will grow earnings at 40%+ for the next 3 years. So $20/share.

CBH maybe will earn 15c at those zinc prices. PE of 20 (as they will have substantial earnings growth) and u get $3/share. 

So more upside with CBH, correct.

Of course the above is only my opinion and the way i see things personally. It does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a professional financial advisor before investing.


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## michael_selway (1 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> DJ, i think CBH are substantially undervalued due not only to their earnings, but their production growth profile.
> 
> They should valued more more KZL and less like ZFX.
> 
> ...




PE of 20 is too high? are you talking about 1 yr fwd PE?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 12.9 17.4 16.8 
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 12.9 5.5 -- 
Year Ending 30-06-08 17.4 4.1 34.9% 

thx

MS


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## johnmwu3 (1 November 2006)

CBH company presentation :
Endeavour mine  is in full production in Dec. quarter of 2006, and forecast production  for 2006-2007 is :
Zin: 64000t
Lead : 33000t
With Zin and Lead price up, CBH will be soaring.
Any opp.?
John3


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## coladuna (1 November 2006)

Grrr.... Sold both CBH and JML at around 58 cents. So pissed to see these two stocks skyrocket after holding them for months.


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## dj_420 (2 November 2006)

even if both CBH and JML display some short term weakness they are still in a definate uptrend that is hugely supported by zinc fundamentals. im holding these until well into 2007 and from there will see what the future for zinc stocks holds.

CBH showed some consolidation today and closed a little weaker, any short term weakness is IMO short term and it will only be a matter of time before buyers are back to push the sp along.

zinc spot is up again tonight so maybe zinc stocks will show some more consolidation at these levels before running again. they certainly wont drop to far based on market fundamentals. who knows zinc stocks could be off and running again tomorrow.


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## sleeper88 (3 November 2006)

morning all, looks like CBH is on the run again with good volume for the first 50mins of trading, already up 4c to 75.5c with a volume of approx 1.8m Fingers crossed it'll touch 80c today


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## hypnotic (3 November 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> even if both CBH and JML display some short term weakness they are still in a definate uptrend that is hugely supported by zinc fundamentals. im holding these until well into 2007 and from there will see what the future for zinc stocks holds.
> 
> CBH showed some consolidation today and closed a little weaker, any short term weakness is IMO short term and it will only be a matter of time before buyers are back to push the sp along.
> 
> zinc spot is up again tonight so maybe zinc stocks will show some more consolidation at these levels before running again. they certainly wont drop to far based on market fundamentals. who knows zinc stocks could be off and running again tomorrow.




Yeap you got it right dj,

Zinc prices are pushing up and today CBH going for a little run up around 6% to a peak of 76cents

while JML still consolidating around 83 cent....

I am with you i am holding these for a bit longer i think and after reading your post from FAT about JML , i am pretty certain they will be very attractive shares for the medium term.


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## nizar (3 November 2006)

Yes a good day today.
I was thinking maybe sell this week as next week possible correction due to US conspiracy elections etc, but now i think im gonna keep them.

If anything happens next week ill just free up some funds to buy more.

I have a feeling this price will be a joke in 6 months time, or even in a year time when they announce their profits.


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## Out Too Soon (3 November 2006)

I'm thinking of selling my BHP & SUL to buy more zinc, makes more sense than selling ZFX,KZL or CBH. I'm also sitting on JML, PLA & AGS not zinc but nicely rocketing resources all the same, just wish I had more invested/to invest. :/


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## CanOz (3 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Yes a good day today.
> I was thinking maybe sell this week as next week possible correction due to US conspiracy elections etc, but now i think im gonna keep them.
> 
> If anything happens next week ill just free up some funds to buy more.
> ...




Nizar, do you trail stops?


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## nizar (3 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Nizar, do you trail stops?




No I dont. I dont use stops at all. I take more of a long term view. That said, my exits do need to be refined. But after my last exams next week iv got a very long break, so i want to try to create, trial and test a plan which will allow me to daytrade. My TA knowledge is rather lacking, but iv got myself a few books. But systems trading is what im really keen on. POWER etrade i think is really handy, and im trialling it at the moment. Lets you see whats moving the second it starts moving (of course so does any real-time broker)

When do u use a trailing stop?
When u are in good profit? and where do u place it? Below at ATR or long term moving average?


----------



## peterke (4 November 2006)

Best place for a trialing stop is 1 or 2 points below last major low point. For a really tight trail place it one or two points below low of last day or two.

Trailing closes can be a pain if you set them too tight as you may get closed out before you want.

regards

Peter


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## michael_selway (4 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Yes a good day today.
> I was thinking maybe sell this week as next week possible correction due to US conspiracy elections etc, but now i think im gonna keep them.
> 
> If anything happens next week ill just free up some funds to buy more.
> ...




Yep but need to keep an eye on "on warrant", hasnt moved down much this week or 2, altough nto much "ins", so shoudl be ok

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 10.2 9.7 16.8 
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 10.2 7.5 -- 
Year Ending 30-06-08 9.7 7.8 -4.9% 

thx

MS


----------



## Sean K (4 November 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Yep but need to keep an eye on "on warrant", hasnt moved down much this week or 2, altough nto much "ins", so shoudl be ok
> 
> http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx
> 
> ...




Growth (-4.9%)   

Those pe's look pretty reasonable out to 08!


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## CanOz (4 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> No I dont. I dont use stops at all. I take more of a long term view. That said, my exits do need to be refined. But after my last exams next week iv got a very long break, so i want to try to create, trial and test a plan which will allow me to daytrade. My TA knowledge is rather lacking, but iv got myself a few books. But systems trading is what im really keen on. POWER etrade i think is really handy, and im trialling it at the moment. Lets you see whats moving the second it starts moving (of course so does any real-time broker)
> 
> When do u use a trailing stop?
> When u are in good profit? and where do u place it? Below at ATR or long term moving average?




There are several ways on Etrade to use stops. With CBH i just move it just under the next support level as they appear. That way the profits are "locked' in bar any catastophic gap downs.

I use Power Etrade and its a great tool. The charts are fast but there is no scanning available   

Let me know how you go with it. Read Radge's book Adaptive Analyse if only for the risk manamgement and postive expectancy advice. I read it again once a week. He also sent me an E-Book, Master the Markets, which gets into the nitty gritty of price action to let you in on what the pro's are doing, very enlightening.

Anyway...Go CBH you good thing!

Cheers,


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## nizar (4 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> I use Power Etrade and its a great tool. The charts are fast but there is no scanning available




their market movers section tells u whats moving according to volumes at %move, thats good enough for me and all i need


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## Sean K (7 November 2006)

Anyone know anything about the Toho Zinc Company who now have 22% of CBH. I went to their web site but it's all in Japanese.


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## nizar (7 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Anyone know anything about the Toho Zinc Company who now have 22% of CBH. I went to their web site but it's all in Japanese.




all i know is that they were the best performing stock on the Nikkei for FY2006. they were accumulating when CBH was getting dumped from may-june from 59-29c.


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## Sean K (7 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> all i know is that they were the best performing stock on the Nikkei for FY2006. they were accumulating when CBH was getting dumped from may-june from 59-29c.



Think they could be going to take it over? This is the first time I have heard of them even on the register. Guess my due dilligance wasn't that crash hot.


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## dj_420 (7 November 2006)

They have held a 20 + percent holding in CBH for a while now. they are the ones that are financing the sulpher springs project. 

and they are the ones who CBH currently deliver their zinc to as well and ZFX.


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## nizar (7 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Think they could be going to take it over? This is the first time I have heard of them even on the register. Guess my due dilligance wasn't that crash hot.




LOL theyve been a holder for AGES. At least since the beginning of the year when i first looked at this... Im not sure about a takeover but they surely would block one... in fact id be suprised if ZFX hasnt yet done the numbers on CBH...

I dont enough about Toho's business to suggest they will takeover.... maybe sum1 else can fill us in...


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## Sean K (7 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> LOL theyve been a holder for AGES. At least since the beginning of the year when i first looked at this... Im not sure about a takeover but they surely would block one... in fact id be suprised if ZFX hasnt yet done the numbers on CBH...
> 
> I dont enough about Toho's business to suggest they will takeover.... maybe sum1 else can fill us in...



There's not even an English version of their web site.   Perhaps Snake could have a look for us? 

You'd think if they were going to have a shot at this they would have done so 3 months ago.


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## sleeper88 (7 November 2006)

that sulphur springs feasibility study is taking a darn long time, in the annual report they said it was nearly completed, anyone have a clue when it's gona come out?


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## nizar (7 November 2006)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> that sulphur springs feasibility study is taking a darn long time, in the annual report they said it was nearly completed, anyone have a clue when it's gona come out?



Agree its taking ages...


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## dj_420 (7 November 2006)

can a company withhold an ann so they place it at a strategic time??

if so, perhaps CBH are waiting for zinc stocks to slow down then release ann, keep the train rolling.

but yes i want to see the BFS for SS too


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## sleeper88 (7 November 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> can a company withhold an ann so they place it at a strategic time??
> 
> if so, perhaps CBH are waiting for zinc stocks to slow down then release ann, keep the train rolling.
> 
> but yes i want to see the BFS for SS too




i don't think thats possible, i believe companies have to comply with continuous disclosure rules set by the ASX, therefore they have to release market sensitive information as it comes to hand


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## nizar (7 November 2006)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> i don't think thats possible, i believe companies have to comply with continuous disclosure rules set by the ASX, therefore they have to release market sensitive information as it comes to hand




I agree with sleeper.
Though i reckon it still happens all the time...


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## Sean K (9 November 2006)

Guys wasn't the ann regarding full production at Endeavour due in October too? 

Dropping back to $0.72 by the look. Should be a bit of support there. POZ should keep this going.


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## MalteseBull (9 November 2006)

topped up on this one and KZL today


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## Tetrahedrite (9 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Guys wasn't the ann regarding full production at Endeavour due in October too?
> 
> Dropping back to $0.72 by the look. Should be a bit of support there. POZ should keep this going.



If you read the second page of the september 2006 quarterly report you will see that full production capacity was moved to december, not october.


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## Sean K (9 November 2006)

Tetrahedrite said:
			
		

> If you read the second page of the september 2006 quarterly report you will see that full production capacity was moved to december, not october.



Thanks Tetra, that was a bit lazy of me wasn't it.


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## nizar (9 November 2006)

Tetrahedrite said:
			
		

> If you read the second page of the september 2006 quarterly report you will see that full production capacity was moved to december, not october.




if i recall it did not did say december, rather "december quarter", read the first point of the highlights page


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## Tetrahedrite (9 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> if i recall it did not did say december, rather "december quarter", read the first point of the highlights page



You are quite correct, my apologies. Given that there was no announcement of return to full production during October, and we are already well into November, using "December quarter" may have been a way to suggest that it would not be in October without affecting the S.P. too much??


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## nizar (9 November 2006)

Tetrahedrite said:
			
		

> You are quite correct, my apologies. Given that there was no announcement of return to full production during October, and we are already well into November, using "December quarter" may have been a way to suggest that it would not be in October without affecting the S.P. too much??




Probably. This management is a bit dodgy. They dont seem to be working hard enough to gain back investors trust. Where is that BFS results announcement for sulfur springs??? was meant to be released in july??? But Who cares, as long as im making (substantial) profit from these guys, i guess i shouldnt bother myself too much!


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## Tetrahedrite (9 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Probably. This management is a bit dodgy. They dont seem to be working hard enough to gain back investors trust. Where is that BFS results announcement for sulfur springs??? was meant to be released in july??? But Who cares, as long as im making (substantial) profit from these guys, i guess i shouldnt bother myself too much!



I agree, the delay with the SS BFS is really starting to get annoying. However, having said that, I've had a fair bit to do with Prof. Ian Plimer (Non-executive director) and I've also met Bob Besley (Managing director) and I get the impression, especially from Plimer, that the company isn't really in any great hurry and is taking the "softly, softly" approach to expanding the company.


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## dj_420 (9 November 2006)

a bit of consolidation now is good. the market is down so hopefully see some support kick in around the 75 cents mark, then SS BFS ann and off we go again.

the agm is on friday (if i remember correctly) so SS BFS could be released tomorrow morning to coincide with meeting.


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## Tetrahedrite (9 November 2006)

Another thing, no one here seems to have discussed the potential of the Mineral Hill mine. With CBH being a much larger (and more able, IMO) company than Triako, they might be able to get it going again. When I visited the mine 18 months ago I got the impression there were still several years of reserves left, and that this was open ended??? Maybe the economy of scale they will get from mining the Hera deposit at Nymagee will make it economic to re-open???

Having said that, I have visited four of CBH's deposits (including Endeavor and Rasp), and I really think that this company has great potential going into the future. All of the deposits seem to be very promising and if they manage to get at least four of their deposits online (Endeavor, SS, Hera, Rasp) in a year or two, then anyone who holds onto their investment now will be handsomely rewarded. This is purely my opinion of course.


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## maverick11 (9 November 2006)

I've worked at Endevour briefly.  One of the ****tiest UG mines I've been to.  This was last year, and I'm assuming CBH still owned them then.  My opinions of endevour last year were they are cheap, as in they didn't like spending money and maintaining a high level of professionalism.  Their safety is also poor, and it's only a matter of time before they get another fatality.  When I was there, they were letting of 40gal drums full of explosives during shift with people still underground.  I also witness the shift supervisor running around inside an open stope to place a couple explosive charges at the base of the rill pile which was stood up due to oxidation.  To go into an open stop (which is a massive UG void) is insane...especially when the rill pile is stood up and could collapse at any second!!!!

Oh well, just thought I'd share

..oh, though i might also add the buddy i worked with quit because he was in charge of explosives and the mine kept asking him to do unsafe things which he refused to do...ie let off 40gal drums full of explosives during shift in a mine that has potential dust explosion issues too.


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## Tetrahedrite (9 November 2006)

Haven't been underground at Endeavor, I've only been to the core yard, so I can't really comment. They seem to have had some geophysical problems at Endeavor (Elura) over the years. In addition to the recent collapse, several levels from the surface down collapsed in 1996. If you saw the material they were mining from the base of oxidation, you wouldn't be suprised. I would describe it as spongy, certainly not hard rock. It was absolutely packed with native silver though, so you can understand why they mined it


----------



## maverick11 (9 November 2006)

crickey I forgot about that.  Surface subsidence was nasty after a section of the UG mine collapsed.  I think they filled it now.


----------



## Tetrahedrite (10 November 2006)

Looks like full production at Endeavor will be announced at the general meeting today, back to 100,300 tonnes per month, which by my reckoning just makes the target of 1.2 Mtpa. Hopefully this will give the sp another shove in the up direction??


----------



## alankew (10 November 2006)

Tetra good call,has indeed returned to full production.There is a link to the release on the asx website


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## nizar (11 November 2006)

Yes finally. Full production in october. Was scheduled in mid-2006 intially.
Sulfur Springs BFS results were due in July. Where are they now?
WHen will this company start doing things on time ?


----------



## alankew (11 November 2006)

Statement says that Sulfur Springs due this qtr and that long lead time equipment has been ordered.Even though its late in the current bullish environment and with the Christmas push timing should  hopefully give a boost to sp


----------



## Sean K (11 November 2006)

alankew said:
			
		

> Statement says that Sulfur Springs due this qtr and that long lead time equipment has been ordered.Even though its late in the current bullish environment and with the Christmas push timing should  hopefully give a boost to sp




Hmmm, maybe not so great timing. Zn down 4%.    Maybe not good news enough to save it? I hope so. It's the only zinc play I own atm.


----------



## dj_420 (11 November 2006)

I think it will be good enough news kennas. market still doesnt realise back to 100% production, link on the asx website leads to ann regarding production.

copper dropped however zinc is still only just under 2.00 per pound, thats a huge increase that we have already seen on spot over last couple of months.

i think zinc is still great, copper has come off the boil and zinc is about to jump on the hotplate for a great run.

other projects are looking fantastic for growth also.

have a read of the ann kennas and let me know what you think.


----------



## sleeper88 (12 November 2006)

interesting read, 

Goldcorp's $200m Peak mine piques interest
November 11, 2006

CANADA's Goldcorp is selling the Peak goldmine in the central west of NSW in a deal that could fetch up to $200 million.

The underground mine, which produced nearly 120,000 ounces of gold in 2005, has come onto the market at the same time as two similar-sized operations in Western Australia. Barrick is selling its Paddington assets and administrators are disposing of Croesus Mining's Norseman operations.

Oceana Gold, which mines in New Zealand and recently merged with Climax Mining, has expressed interest in Peak. But other companies could bid for the Cobar mine, which has at least six years of gold production remaining.

"We would certainly be interested to have a look," Dominion Mining managing director Peter Alexander said.

St Barbara sold its $19.2 million stake in Mercator Gold on Friday to help fund development of its business and potential acquisitions. Its managing director, Eduard Eshuys, confirmed his company had expressed interest in Paddington and Norseman, but said St Barbara was already out of the running. It was "not actively pursuing" Peak.

*CBH Resources*, which owns the Endeavour mine in Cobar, said it could also be interested in Peak.

Goldcorp representatives in Vancouver could not be reached for comment on Friday, but it is believed the company is selling Peak to focus on bigger projects after its recent $US8.6 billion ($11.2 billion) purchase of Glamis Gold.

Barrick is selling its Paddington operations, which it picked up through its merger with Placer Dome, for similar reasons.

"It seems to be another case of companies that are getting larger disposing of assets that are of less relevance as they grow," Fat Prophets resources analyst Gavin Wendt said.

At standard valuation models of about $100 to $200 per ounce of resource, Peak could be worth $100 million to $200 million, he said.

It is believed Paddington could cost about $100 million and Norseman more than $60 million.


----------



## Tetrahedrite (13 November 2006)

This could be a very interesting development indeed!!! If they bought out Peak it would make the mining their newly acquired Hera gold mine much more attractive.

For starters, the Peak processing plant is set up to treat gold, whereas the Endeavor plant would have to be modified. 
Secondly, if they were going to truck the ore to the Peak they would be saving 2 x 45 km = 90km per truckload of ore!!!! Must be more economical.
Lastly, Peak Gold Mines (PGM) don't just own the Peak, they own the New Cobar Au-Cu deposit, the Chesney Cu deposit, and the New Occidental Au deposit (I believe), thus making CBH a big player in copper and gold as well. Be interesting to see what happens.


----------



## nizar (13 November 2006)

Tetrahedrite said:
			
		

> This could be a very interesting development indeed!!! If they bought out Peak it would make the mining their newly acquired Hera gold mine much more attractive.
> 
> For starters, the Peak processing plant is set up to treat gold, whereas the Endeavor plant would have to be modified.
> Secondly, if they were going to truck the ore to the Peak they would be saving 2 x 45 km = 90km per truckload of ore!!!! Must be more economical.
> Lastly, Peak Gold Mines (PGM) don't just own the Peak, they own the New Cobar Au-Cu deposit, the Chesney Cu deposit, and the New Occidental Au deposit (I believe), thus making CBH a big player in copper and gold as well. Be interesting to see what happens.




CBH dont have the cash to buy anything else. Its only this quarter when they will return to profitability. I reckon the management focus should be on getting Rasp and Sulfur Springs to production, thats already more than enough for production upside, instead of trying to take over the world.
The last thing we want is even more shares on issue and another eps decrease for these guys.


----------



## Tetrahedrite (13 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> CBH dont have the cash to buy anything else. Its only this quarter when they will return to profitability. I reckon the management focus should be on getting Rasp and Sulfur Springs to production, thats already more than enough for production upside, instead of trying to take over the world.
> The last thing we want is even more shares on issue and another eps decrease for these guys.



This is true, but Peak is an operating mine, and they would be generating cash flow immediately from it. If you consider this, and the amount they will be spending on modifying the Endeavor plant and on haulage, then it might be worth it?? Having said that, I think you are probably right, they don't really have the money at the moment.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 November 2006)

Sulphur Springs and RASP CML7 will take years and $millions to bring online, if they can diversify their operations into a 2nd plant for a cost of  around 1/8th to 1/4th of their current mkt cap it makes sense to me,

I know they don't have the cash and they should be focusing on getting RASP CML7 + Sulphur Springs going but those operations are at least 12months away,

I reckon PEM should just buy up everyone, they are the Cash Cow King!


----------



## Sean K (13 November 2006)

These tails indicating the buyers have overcome the sellers are a good sign to me. Might be too early to tell, but there's a few buyers entering at $0.73, which seems a short term support line. Zn down again tonight might alter that....


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 November 2006)

I recieved my Sept Qtrly update from BMO (BMA Gold today) even though I sold ages ago,


Interesting thing is though that the letter came from CBH Resources!

A bit more digging shows that BMO and CBH share 2 of the same management (who have been only recently appointed to BMO)

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm interesting


----------



## boults_4545 (13 November 2006)

BMO has also picked up a bit in the last fortnight or so. Up nearly 8% this morning.


----------



## Sean K (13 November 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I recieved my Sept Qtrly update from BMO (BMA Gold today) even though I sold ages ago,
> 
> Interesting thing is though that the letter came from CBH Resources!
> 
> ...




CBH taking BMO? Can they afford that? 

Friendly merger?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 November 2006)

Got me confused, why would CBH want BMO? Its a piece of ****e imo


----------



## Sean K (13 November 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Got me confused, why would CBH want BMO? Its a piece of ****e imo




They haven't got much have they. 429k oz au in 2 deposits. I've got more than that out the back yard.


----------



## Sean K (14 November 2006)

Precarious. Under my support level at the moment. $0.72 was my bounce point, now $0.71. Haven't sold, expecting Zn to turn around. If not tonight, I'm on the sidelines again.


----------



## CanOz (14 November 2006)

I agree with your chart, but note the buyers that came to push this of its low for the day. They came in earlt too, just after trading opened, and they bought all day as the sellers put stock up for sale. Would have been a bit better if it closed up from the open...oh well.


----------



## Sean K (14 November 2006)

Yep, I agree Crazy Canuck, buyers won the day, but only just.


----------



## hypnotic (14 November 2006)

Time               Price     Quantity 
06:06:53 PM    0.718    1,225,796 

Someone bought 1.2Mil of shares in CBH at 6pm ......
off market trade??

I know people have mentioned this before but what does this mean?

a Confused Hypnotic


----------



## Sean K (15 November 2006)

I'm out at $0.70.


----------



## CanOz (15 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'm out at $0.70.




I'm out too, stopped out. Should have listened and sold out last week.

I'm sure this stock will be back hammering at the door of the new 'old' high in no time, just to P*** me off!


----------



## dj_420 (15 November 2006)

surely this stock is close to been oversold now. sp ran up to 0.85 cents when zinc was 2.00 per pound, now its been punished all the way back down to near old highs. 

should have sold half my CBH shares at 0.85 and then averaged down. oh well thats hindsight. 

where is the SS BFS, the directors have done nothing to help this situation. 
prob to late for exit, best ride it out i think. 

if i exit now it will bounce back surely.


----------



## rwkni1 (15 November 2006)

i agree dj, i see this as a top up opportunity.

i'd be very surprised if it didn't bounce back tomorrow.

zinc stocks are still falling, and in my opinion the drop in lme zinc price is just technical selling after the strong run up to $2.10/lb, helped along by sentiment flowing over from copper.


----------



## dj_420 (15 November 2006)

i just dont know why such a good growth stock has shown such a large sp decrease on no bad ann. shows great fundamentals, endeavour back to 100% (or so has been stated), huge pipeline of projects and then there has been panic selling.

just shows in charge, the market and not whether or not a company is undervalued.

KZL and ZFX have shown sp retracements but nothing as large as CBH. i think the directors should have kept the market more informed with ann regarding production and SS BFS. maybe everyone got sick of waiting.

LME zinc stocks still dropping, fat prophets had buy on this couple month back up to 66 cents. what happened???


----------



## CanOz (15 November 2006)

Looks like it might close on the low for the day, gives me some solice knowing i stopped out before that. A close on the low, with that kind of volume doesn't bode well for the following day. It looked like heaps of money flowing in to pick off the sellers, a couple more days and there won't be any left, typical exhaustion tail may result on the chart. I'm baffled too as to why so many would want to sell this stock.


----------



## rwkni1 (15 November 2006)

Chinese IP numbers came out today, growth was 16% (YoY) vs. expectations of 14.5% (YoY). This is probably the catalyst for the heavy selling of resource stocks in the arvo. Personally, with growth of 14.5% I wouldn't be phased even if it is below consensus forecasts.


----------



## CanOz (15 November 2006)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> Chinese IP numbers came out today, growth was 16% (YoY) vs. expectations of 14.5% (YoY). This is probably the catalyst for the heavy selling of resource stocks in the arvo. Personally, with growth of 14.5% I wouldn't be phased even if it is below consensus forecasts.




You mean it was 14.5 but was expected to be 16%?


----------



## Stan 101 (15 November 2006)

I was going to jump out at 76 cents but let it slide to 71.5 and I've just started buying back at 65 - 66.5 cents. 
It has certainly been big profit taking and I'm suprised I haeld on to CBH up to the 85 cent mark. Usually I would have exited well before the high. 
Who's of the opinion that this one is just taking a breather?


cheers,


----------



## rwkni1 (15 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> You mean it was 14.5 but was expected to be 16%?




Sorry, that's it.


----------



## noobs (15 November 2006)

Fat Prophets rate CBH a "strong buy" @ .695c 

Well worth a read - http://www.fatprophets.com.au/mining...+Fat+Mining+48

I decided to top up my CBH holdings just b4 close of trade today. I am in this one for the long term and regardless of the feasibilty study being so late I don't think the fundamentals for this company have changed. Any further drops in the share price will be good chance to top up in my opinion. DYOR

I agree there there are better short term opportunities available at present but I am not a day trader and long term this still looks great IMO


----------



## jet328 (15 November 2006)

noobs said:
			
		

> Fat Prophets rate CBH a "strong buy" @ .695c
> 
> Well worth a read - http://www.fatprophets.com.au/mining...+Fat+Mining+48




Could expand that link, as it doesn't seem to work for me

Cheers


----------



## kr1zh (15 November 2006)

http://www.fatprophets.com.au/mining/content.aspx?page=CBH+Resources%2c+Fat+Mining+48


----------



## magoo (16 November 2006)

bounce at .59, maybe, after that .50, so the article says.


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2006)

Has CBH turned? Maybe too early to tell. Zn will stop falling soon......


----------



## 2020hindsight (17 November 2006)

- a comment frrom the beginner's pool.  I'm back in (with 25% of portfolio).  Is it my imagination - or was the selloff by the "Triako converts" a bit of a non-event? - or still to come?  My guess is its behind us.


----------



## nizar (17 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Has CBH turned? Maybe too early to tell. Zn will stop falling soon......




It "will" ?


----------



## Out Too Soon (17 November 2006)

The market is an irrational creature, that's why I think Zinc has a way down to go yet, thennnn, bargain hunting time!   Right now though I put my ex zinc funds into Woodside Petroleum although I may have been too quick off the mark there too.


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> It "will" ?



There will be a floor somewhere won't there, even if it's at $0.01?


----------



## dj_420 (17 November 2006)

wouldnt these lower spot zinc prices encourage buyers anyway?

since there is hardly any supply left, zinc price will have to go up.
CBH found some support at 62.5 cents and KZL and ZFX on their way back up.


----------



## sleeper88 (17 November 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> The market is an irrational creature, that's why I think Zinc has a way down to go yet, thennnn, bargain hunting time!   Right now though I put my ex zinc funds into Woodside Petroleum although I may have been too quick off the mark there too.




i agree with you, picked up some WPL today, it seems to be a bargain at these prices, as for CBH and my other zinc stocks, im going to ride it out   CBH up nicely today


----------



## nizar (17 November 2006)

Lets not forget CBH went from 39c to 46c in the last correction. And then down again.
Im not convinced its over. This may in fact be only the beginning.


----------



## dj_420 (17 November 2006)

so you think there is more downside for CBH, KZL and ZFX?

i believe the retracement has been overdone. if you look at the charts the williams % indicator is showing that the stock was oversold


----------



## dj_420 (17 November 2006)

and if you want to compare all three zinc stocks then zfx and cbh were oversold the most. kzl held up reasonably well.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (17 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Lets not forget CBH went from 39c to 46c in the last correction. And then down again.
> Im not convinced its over. This may in fact be only the beginning.





Nizar, you seemed vey confident of all the Zincors, and holding them to I believe $20 plus for ZFX, $10  plus for KZL et etc. I believe you gave fellow posters a hard time for taking profits on the highs.

What has changed fundamentally for the Zincors in the last month?, why youre shift in postings, surely they have showed their potential SP's, this pullback should see new support levels established. Profit announcement season coming soon and some of these companies have had the best last six month's in their history.

An early call might be that today is the bounce day, extreme lows reached and most of the good ones have bounced stongly, I'm buying anyway


----------



## nizar (17 November 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Nizar, you seemed vey confident of all the Zincors, and holding them to I believe $20 plus for ZFX, $10  plus for KZL et etc. I believe you gave fellow posters a hard time for taking profits on the highs.




I mustve gave myself a hard time then, i sold CBH at 81.5c and KZL at 7.72 on 7th november.
Wanna see the contract notes? 

Im still very confident of zinc longer term, but im not gonna hold through these times the way i did in May. Iv learnt from that. I feared a correction so i protected my profits.

Fundamentals havent changed of course not. But id rather not be holding when the sp is going south. If the share price does not go up, i dont make money, regardless of announcemnts, earnings, whateva, but thats the bottom line - My profitability.

Sorry if i gave any1 a "hard time", was just expressing my views.


----------



## CanOz (18 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> I mustve gave myself a hard time then, i sold CBH at 81.5c and KZL at 7.72 on 7th november.
> Wanna see the contract notes?
> 
> Im still very confident of zinc longer term, but im not gonna hold through these times the way i did in May. Iv learnt from that. I feared a correction so i protected my profits.
> ...




The 7th of November was SPOT ON, that was when the smart money got out of CBH, no doubt.

Well done Nizar, count yourself in the "smart money"

I have looked at that chart 100 times now and i will never forget that price action. The best lesson i ever learned about exiting will always be from CBH!

Cheers,


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (18 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> The 7th of November was SPOT ON, that was when the smart money got out of CBH, no doubt.
> 
> Well done Nizar, count yourself in the "smart money"
> 
> ...





Every Nickle, Zinc, Uranium stock had their 7th of November in the last few weeks. 
And most of the same ones will have it all over again, greed has it over fear for a while yet, just look at today!.


----------



## CanOz (18 November 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Every Nickle, Zinc, Uranium stock had their 7th of November in the last few weeks.
> And most of the same ones will have it all over again, greed has it over fear for a while yet, just look at today!.




If your a technical trader, you must learn to recognise the exit of the big money. That was my point. Look at ZFX, KZL, CBH, etc. and see if you can pick the exit from the volume and OHLC, HLC, Candle or whatever.

How many here see what i am saying.....besides Nick, Tech/A etc.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (18 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> If your a technical trader, you must learn to recognise the exit of the big money. That was my point. Look at ZFX, KZL, CBH, etc. and see if you can pick the exit from the volume and OHLC, HLC, Candle or whatever.
> 
> How many here see what i am saying.....besides Nick, Tech/A etc.





It could be quite easy as a 5% trailer has been hit on the downside momentum after riding out a SP high. That would certainly be the case in the stocks you have mentioned, they didn't present many opportunities for stops to be hit from late Sept to a few weeks back. Or as simple as many punters had reached their profit targets(and took them). The Momentum indicators of many stocks were way extended and the market in general was ripe for a pullback.

I don't think many of the large holders and insto's have exited their positions in the companies you have mentioned. The iniitial SP of the said companies spiked viciously in September on relatively low volumes with many insto's missing the boat/jumping on late or just generally procrastinating. I don't think they will make the same mistake this time around.

That said MCR has copped a bit of a beating from the big boys until today.

As for youre mention of charts and T/A they are not IMHO of any use whatsoever in helping an exit position from a trade 'in the companies you  have mentioned', they defy momentum on the charts. A 5 percent trailer or a profit target is probably the only realsitic exit. 
The same logic applies for the new entry point after a profit take pullback, these companies always seem to establish new higher support levels or bounce quickly from past supports.

I am happy to have entered new positions in today's pre-open, in most of my sells from a few weeks back. 
Today's spread could well indicate that we have seen the new support levels for the good ones we all know and love.  . The charts certainly aren't going to indicate this until its happened and the punters/marketplace have played their card.


----------



## CanOz (18 November 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> It could be quite easy as a 5% trailer has been hit on the downside momentum after riding out a SP high. That would certainly be the case in the stocks you have mentioned, they didn't present many opportunities for stops to be hit from late Sept to a few weeks back. Or as simple as many punters had reached their profit targets(and took them). The Momentum indicators of many stocks were way extended and the market in general was ripe for a pullback.
> 
> I don't think many of the large holders and insto's have exited their positions in the companies you have mentioned. The iniitial SP of the said companies spiked viciously in September on relatively low volumes with many insto's missing the boat/jumping on late or just generally procrastinating. I don't think they will make the same mistake this time around.
> 
> ...




Hi free, interesting viewpoint. Heres where my view point comes from:

On the chart you'll see a large effort in the form of above average volume, with no resulting increase in price on the day. In my view this was where allot of money exited. This is how you can read the price action to know when to exit. This is only my view and i could be slightly off the mark, but for the most part the price action says it all.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz (18 November 2006)

Heres another chart showing Zinifex. I must thank Nick Radge for enlightening me to the idea of Volume Spread analysis, and his FREE e-book you get when you join. But again its the sellers that won day here, same as CBH. I could go on, they're are allot of stocks that did the same on the day but i'll get too far off topic....do we have a thread on the art of the exit?

Anyway Free keep your opinions coming, i like your viewpoint.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 November 2006)

Crazy Canuck , 

Still believe  its as simple as profit taking after long runs and as sellers outweigh buyers, momentum turns. Once momentum has swung the mad rush comes out to lock in profits. In the case of your charts obviously the candles indicate this although they could quite easily have swung another way, especially in ZFX's case. Look at the charts pre the October run, apart from ZFX being oversold and accumalated, they never looked the goods chartwise, then they just ran. Fundamentals just catching up in my opinion!  

Still of the opinion its as simple as the stocks you quoted were overbought,overextended and once sellers outweighed buyers momentum turned, long overdue in my opinion. But ZFX is a strange one to anticipate at the best of times. .

By the way Nick Radge seems to be something of a guru on ASF, has he helped youre trading and profitability!.

Cheers.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 November 2006)

In addition Crazy Canuck,

As previously mentioned, the 7th of November was inevitable, pretty much every stock pulled back. In the case of CBH it was an outperformer of the general market (obviously considering Zn ATM) and hence the pullback left room for significant profit taking. 

Its interesting that this Friday is indicated by a decent buying candle on youre chart, a lot of punters re-entered the market on Friday, myself included.

Friday's long tail and strong volume indicate buying support in the marketplace in general, and a reversal in the market is likely. This is my opinion and a rise above Wednesdays high on the XAO would confirm this.

I'm pretty bullish on commodities, especially the materials sector in general and consider its lagging the All Ords (only because of BHP/RIO etc), and also believe their is quite a bit left in the Commodities boom yet. . Money Flow (21-day) is above zero and trending upwards, signaling long-term accumulation, again another indication that the market is bullish in general.


----------



## CanOz (19 November 2006)

Agree Free that Friday was a good day with sellers backing of and buyer pushng CBH off the low for day. With Zinc down 3%+ i don't see how that will be carried through. Fortunatly i don't have any yet as i was not going to get back in until the trend resumed.

Nick Radge has definately helped me. I don't think i would be trading by now had i not subscribed to his website.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar (19 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Fortunatly i don't have any yet as i was not going to get back in until the trend resumed.




Neither do I. I will wait for a clear uptrend.

Canaussieuck - thanks for the kind words the other day. You are giving me FAR too much credit. I sold simply because i thought the US markets would collapse after the midterm elections and cause a correction here as well. And also because the run was starting to get too vertical to be sustained. Like i said, after May, the more paper profits im sitting on, the more uncomfortable i come and the more vulnerable i feel.

I actually REALLY wanted to sell on monday but was hesitant. So when tuesday (the day before elections) was a US rally and zinc spot up, i had no hesitation to pull the trigger. I missed the open which was 85c and then the price dropped cent by cent and by noon was 81c. Closed flat for the day.

As you say freeball and i agree, the fundamentals for zinc or CBH havent changed. But every bullrun has corrections.

Thanks for the charts CanOz.


----------



## Out Too Soon (21 November 2006)

Informative reading, thanks all.:  :
I'm looking to re-enter CBH, KZL & ZFX but wondering about the timing, I suppose everyone is.


----------



## nizar (21 November 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Informative reading, thanks all.:  :
> I'm looking to re-enter CBH, KZL & ZFX but wondering about the timing, I suppose everyone is.




Im gonna wait until a break of all time highs.
The best entry signal iv found. Price moves up much quicker after that.
Im especially looking at ZFX from the 3.


----------



## michael_selway (21 November 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Informative reading, thanks all.:  :
> I'm looking to re-enter CBH, KZL & ZFX but wondering about the timing, I suppose everyone is.




how about PEM?

thx

MS


----------



## Out Too Soon (21 November 2006)

I'm back on CBH now, see what happens. 
Michael I'll look at PEM, don't know anything about it. Thanks.


----------



## magoo (22 November 2006)

Good price action so far for CBH today.
Anyone here looked at CSE?


----------



## olive_tree (22 November 2006)

I've looked at CSE and like what I see!  A bit of info over at  
http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?act=ST&f=16&t=3350


----------



## michael_selway (22 November 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> I'm back on CBH now, see what happens.
> Michael I'll look at PEM, don't know anything about it. Thanks.




Well PEM is a Zinc Producer, thats all you need to know   

Thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (26 November 2006)

CBH got a great article in resource stocks magazine this month, as well as afr. so bit of media coverage has helped their comeback. CBH were oversold on charts last week or so and saw a nice recovery to com back current sp. this is common accross the board for zinc stocks.

metal prices got a nice strong push on close last week. should be interesting this week, copper bounced back to help support zinc and should hopefully hit some new highs this week.


----------



## itchy (27 November 2006)

well there back up to 80 and holding strong!
lets hope they can push to new highs!
i was a little nervous before, now im just anxious to see them go!


----------



## michael_selway (27 November 2006)

itchy said:
			
		

> well there back up to 80 and holding strong!
> lets hope they can push to new highs!
> i was a little nervous before, now im just anxious to see them go!




yep amazing stuff!

thx

MS


----------



## CanOz (27 November 2006)

Nice gap today......will it be filled shortly though? It hasn't NOT filled any on my chart.

Cheers,


----------



## dj_420 (28 November 2006)

zinc stocks down a little today. not sure why resources have been hit so hard, spot copper and zinc prices held well on pullback and are now increasing again. 

dow was down 2% but metal prices have remained fairly strong overall. prob some short term consolidation for zinc stocks in general. IMO with copper bouncing back zinc has lifted and fundamentals are still there at least medium term.

last couple of weeks there was a lot of concern for copper, however reports indicate that demand for metal still remains strong, and there is now concerns on supply again.

i think we have seen a short term sell off, but if metal prices stay up we should have another run into christmas.


----------



## CanOz (28 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Nice gap today......will it be filled shortly though? It hasn't NOT filled any on my chart.
> 
> Cheers,




The GAP is filled now with the low of the day .76
Cheers,


----------



## nizar (1 December 2006)

Im still very much at a beginner stage when it comes to reading charts but is that a double top?


----------



## dj_420 (1 December 2006)

Hey nizar

i dont see a double top, for a double top to form the sp would have to retrace to around 65 - 70 cent mark. in my opinion the sp broke support week or so back found a large amount of support and has pushed it back up to resume the uptrend.

see the similarities in trading channel that sp was trading in before breakout and retrace.


----------



## dj_420 (1 December 2006)

Here is the trading channel patterns im talking about. shows similarities to old trend. what i would like to see now is a more steady rise that continues in to form this new trading channel.


----------



## nizar (1 December 2006)

Yeah it would be nice if the top of the current trading channel will act as a support for the new channel.


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> Here is the trading channel patterns im talking about. shows similarities to old trend. what i would like to see now is a more steady rise that continues in to form this new trading channel.




Maybe DJ, but tenuous. I don't think I would call that a trading channel, or range. All the action has occurred over a month, and there's too much volitility in there to be 'chanelling'.

I can't see much of a channel at all at the moment. Just a couple of support lines and maybe a pennant. It's consolidating ok at the moment, and watch for a break through $0.80, for continuation of the up trend. Cheers.


----------



## mildew79 (1 December 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Heres another chart showing Zinifex. I must thank Nick Radge for enlightening me to the idea of Volume Spread analysis, and his FREE e-book you get when you join. But again its the sellers that won day here, same as CBH. I could go on, they're are allot of stocks that did the same on the day but i'll get too far off topic....do we have a thread on the art of the exit?
> 
> Anyway Free keep your opinions coming, i like your viewpoint.




to add to the debate, and no offense:

if you held this approach on zfx over the last two years you would have missed on a lot of profits. i initially bought into these and have been following them since ascending triangle break of 2.21 two years ago, am quite experienced in tech / a, and am continually amazed at zfx'x ability to ignore all sell indicators and continue charging ahead. there are a few more that come to mind (pdn. kzl etc).

post us your next exit point before there has been two weeks in your favour. anyone can explain on an old chart. 

in many other stocks (and market times for that matter) i would back you up and agree, however the fundementals and support patterns of these stocks the past year and a half has been an eye opener. The week i used to wait for my trend confirmations used to cost me 10% every time in these stocks.

your exit strategy shall last a lifetime however, whereas benefits of bottom pickin these market winners shall come to an end one day. when that day comes i shall go back to buy and exit strategies and breakouts similar to the ones you use.

we all know zinc is goin up, and uranium for that matter. why not buy after the stock has been nailed by profit takers ?? 

does anyone have any backtesting software?? an interesting event would be to compare trading between buying on corrections / profit taking vs bying breaks for zfx, pdn, and kzl the past year and a half. bet i know which would perform the best   

i still trade breaks for speckies!!! i am only refering to the big market winners over the past two years with unbelievable fundemental backing.


----------



## mildew79 (1 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Neither do I. I will wait for a clear uptrend.
> 
> Canaussieuck - thanks for the kind words the other day. You are giving me FAR too much credit. I sold simply because i thought the US markets would collapse after the midterm elections and cause a correction here as well. And also because the run was starting to get too vertical to be sustained. Like i said, after May, the more paper profits im sitting on, the more uncomfortable i come and the more vulnerable i feel.
> 
> ...




heres an idea: as you guys are posting candle charts and seem to know your stuff....why not buy on the first reversal day after a correction? that way you are not catching falling knives and you are getting on the profit choo choo much earlier   all friendly chat


----------



## CanOz (1 December 2006)

mildew79 said:
			
		

> to add to the debate, and no offense:
> 
> if you held this approach on zfx over the last two years you would have missed on a lot of profits. i initially bought into these and have been following them since ascending triangle break of 2.21 two years ago, am quite experienced in tech / a, and am continually amazed at zfx'x ability to ignore all sell indicators and continue charging ahead. there are a few more that come to mind (pdn. kzl etc).
> 
> ...




As you point out, hindsight is a wonderful thing. I exited CBH too late, but having the advantage of hindsight i would have been much better hanging on for sure (or adding ), its nearly back to where it was, and its above where i sold. As i only have so much capital for trading, i need to exit so as to apply my capital elsewhere. 

I think the best way for me to do this (improve my exits) would be to apply EW theory, which i intend to do when i have more time to study it. I also look for price action to tell me when to sell, hence the topic of conversation regarding Nizar's exit of CBH and ZFX. 

At the moment i'm happy trading breakouts etc., learning as much as possible, all while trying to make a respectable expectancy.

If your happy to hold, and your system has not given you sell signals then, well done. I would be very interested in learning more about your plan and strategy. Perhaps you could start a new thread.

Cheers,


----------



## mildew79 (5 December 2006)

was not havin a dig mate. my exit strategy is very similar to yours, i am very much a tech trader. in recent times i have however adjusted my strategy for the market winners (kzl, zfx, pdn etc). i see aditional profit advantages in buying these first pivot day after a correction (for now anyhow).


----------



## MalteseBull (6 December 2006)

broke it's 80cent resistance today on open

looking good


----------



## britishcarfreak (7 December 2006)

Not looking so good now - back to 77cents.  Anyone care to comment why this is?


----------



## dj_420 (7 December 2006)

i dont see it as to bad, sellers arent willing to push the sp down to much, just need a sustained zinc spot price and this one will break through its resistance after consolidation period.

look at JML, its woken up after a couple of weeks consolidating. IMO we may start to run again on ann about SS BFS. nothing about this company has changed, KZL was down yesterday also. when CBH produce some bumper profits market will sit up and take notice.


----------



## nizar (7 December 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> IMO we may start to run again on ann about SS BFS.




IMO that announcement is sooooo delayed its not even funny anymore.   

I dont hold this anymore.


----------



## dj_420 (7 December 2006)

i sold down half my holdings couple weeks ago, jumped on JMS on first leg up, so more than worth it. now im just waiting for CBH to break through resistance at 80 cents to bring my holdings back up.


----------



## MalteseBull (7 December 2006)

how come CBH and KZL are both down if Zinc price is up?!


----------



## bigt (7 December 2006)

Possibly influenced by the increased stockpiles at LME? There have been a few of these positive days in recent weeks...maybe a few people are starting to get a little jittery? Nothing to worry about IMO, stocks still historically very low, and prices very high...makes for fantastic profit growth for producers.


----------



## MalteseBull (7 December 2006)

director sold out some of his shares didn't he? look at the announcement


----------



## rwkni1 (7 December 2006)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> how come CBH and KZL are both down if Zinc price is up?!




Zinc price was actually off 3c/lb (1.7%) last night to US$2.05/lb. Stocks also gained 800t to 87kt - the second consecutive day of inventory gains. Nothing to worry about IMO, maybe we're just starting to see some price elasticity of demand at these levels. Either way, buyers can't hold out forever.


----------



## Out Too Soon (7 December 2006)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> Zinc price was actually off 3c/lb (1.7%) last night to US$2.05/lb. Stocks also gained 800t to 87kt - the second consecutive day of inventory gains. Nothing to worry about IMO, maybe we're just starting to see some price elasticity of demand at these levels. Either way, buyers can't hold out forever.




I've been waiting to get back in to CBH & KZL but just hasn't happened. Back into Jabiru JML today, much bigger upside now.


----------



## magoo (8 December 2006)

Anyone looked at a Zinc price graph recently?
Doesn't look too crash hot.


----------



## dj_420 (8 December 2006)

zinc stocks are well down today, i think ill hold through this one though, only have half my holdings and if i take these ones off market ill be taxed on my gains. ill wait till turnaround and jump back on when we get an upswing.


----------



## MalteseBull (12 December 2006)

CBH - takeover rumours:

2315 GMT [Dow Jones] After mega-merger of zinc smelting assets with Umicore (UMI.BT)
next year and plenty of cash likely from IPO of new entity on Euronext, the question now
is what will Zinifex (ZFX.AU) do with the money. Zinifex says it will expand mining
operations - meaning acquisitions are highly likely. Others in the sector on the ASX
include Kagara Zinc (KZL.AU) with market cap A$1.5 billion and CBH Resources (CBH.AU)
with market cap about A$565 million - both would be easily affordable to ZFX with current
market cap A$8.5 billion. Also, market rumours of tie-up with Oxiana (OXR.AU) likely to
re-emerge - OXR has A$4.4 billion market cap. ZFX shares up 5.6% early at A$18.36 vs
record A$18.74 set earlier this month. Press conference at 0000 GMT (11am Sydney time).
(GFM)


----------



## MalteseBull (13 December 2006)

strong 500k buyer at 76cps

this will be a takeover target


----------



## rwkni1 (13 December 2006)

What about Toho zinc's blocking stake?
I don't think they will be too keen to give up their concentrate supply from CBH.....


----------



## britishcarfreak (13 December 2006)

I didn't see the 500k buyer.  Looks like volume is cooling off too.


----------



## brerwallabi (13 December 2006)

Hopefully the may give some cash back to some of us shareholders.

Britishcarfreak is that a TVR?

By the way I used to have a trumper, a 2 litre with a pair of CD350''s fitted and a laycock overdrive working on 3rd and 4th it flew.
Great car.


----------



## britishcarfreak (13 December 2006)

Hi, It's a Triumph Spitfire Mk1 with an Ashley laminates fast back.  Sweet eh!  

rwkni1 = can you explain the blocking stake - I'm not sure what you mean.


----------



## rwkni1 (13 December 2006)

Toho zinc (japanese zinc smelter) holds 25% of CBH. Part of the reason they have this stake is to ensure concentrate supply to their smelter. In  a tight zinc concentrate market such as we are seeing now, smelters have to fight for throughput, and sometimes cannot get enough material to run the plant at capacity. I'm not 100% sure of the details of their supply clause with CBH, but I would assume any sale of their 25% stake in CBH could put their supply from CBH's Endeavour mine in jeopardy. I think any company would have a hard time convincing them to sell that stake in this market.


----------



## britishcarfreak (13 December 2006)

So, does that mean you think price will go ape (up) because atleast 25% of shareholding won't want to let go if there is a takeover???  Or are you saying takeover just isn't likely.


----------



## dj_420 (13 December 2006)

takeover is unlikely


----------



## rwkni1 (13 December 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> takeover is unlikely




Exactly. Which, I think is a good thing anyway, because any takeover offer would likely undervalue the growth potential of CBH. With sulphur springs and broken hill coming on line in 2007/08, i think as a share holder you're better off just sitting back and playing the waiting game. I think the value in this stock will begin to be reflected over the course of 2007 for those willing to wait for a couple of solid production reports out of eneavour and the release of the sulphur bankable feasibility.


----------



## MalteseBull (15 December 2006)

ZINC

Bid/Ask  	2.0159  	-  	2.0205
Change 	+0.0409 		+2.07%
Low/High 	1.9705 	- 	2.0431


strong buyer depth pre-open,,

few cents short from new record highs

$1 IMO


----------



## bigt (15 December 2006)

$1 today..next week...next year? I'm 99% sure this stock is an absolute beauty, especially with the great projects in the pipeline ice the cake..will we see $1 by Chrissy?


----------



## magoo (15 December 2006)

Check out the news releases the past month.
What's the deal?
One of the directors have sold over 7 million shares since early November,
ranging from an average of .69 cents to .82 cents. (My calculation should be right but you should verify this for yourself).


----------



## rwkni1 (15 December 2006)

ABN Amro just re-initiated coverage with a 71c price target.


----------



## michael_selway (16 December 2006)

magoo said:
			
		

> Check out the news releases the past month.
> What's the deal?
> One of the directors have sold over 7 million shares since early November,
> ranging from an average of .69 cents to .82 cents. (My calculation should be right but you should verify this for yourself).




why did he sell?

thx

MS


----------



## 2020hindsight (16 December 2006)

magoo said:
			
		

> One of the directors have sold over 7 million shares since early November,



that would be about half the bundle i bought then


----------



## redandgreen (16 December 2006)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> ABN Amro just re-initiated coverage with a 71c price target.



ABM have a price target on ZFX of $17.64   
I don't know whether we should be using them as a guide


----------



## nizar (16 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> why did he sell?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Why dont u give him a buzz and find out?


----------



## michael_selway (16 December 2006)

redandgreen said:
			
		

> ABM have a price target on ZFX of $17.64
> I don't know whether we should be using them as a guide




*CBH* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 10.7 13.5 24.0 
DPS 0.0 0.5 3.0 10.0 

*ZFX* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 345.9 255.7 152.8 
DPS 80.0 160.7 106.5 69.0 

*PEM* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 42.1 103.5 77.7 89.2 
DPS 5.0 14.8 13.6 12.8 

*KZL* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 16.8 81.4 76.4 64.5 
DPS 0.0 15.0 13.8 24.5 

thx

MS


----------



## magoo (19 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> why did he sell?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




A director selling a substantial stake, that's what I like to know along with everyone else.


----------



## nizar (19 December 2006)

magoo said:
			
		

> A director selling a substantial stake, that's what I like to know along with everyone else.




Director selling could be because he/she wants to:
*Buy a house
*Buy a car
*Buy a boat
*Go overseas
*Clear some debt
*Gamble
*Personal reasons

Directors could sell for ANY reason.

But directors only buy for ONE reason.


----------



## magoo (19 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Director selling could be because he/she wants to:
> *Buy a house
> *Buy a car
> *Buy a boat
> ...




Cashing in 7.2 million shares for 5.5 million dollars,
investors will ask questions.


----------



## Tetrahedrite (21 December 2006)

4 days until christmas, and still no SS BFS. I wonder what the hold up is. Long overdue.


----------



## alankew (21 December 2006)

I emailed the company and although they are not allowed to divulge info,they didnt even reply


----------



## britishcarfreak (21 December 2006)

I'm thinking the next few weeks aren't going to look too good for CBH.  Based on the trend shown here since the first week of dec overall it's in a state of decline. dropping volume, macd indicators etc.

Is anyone here holding this for short term - if you are - are you getting out this week?

Or are you all looking long-term?  

Overall long-term things look good.  

I'm thinking of dropping it for a month and getting back in.  Could do more with the capital for a while.... on say BMN

Any comments regarding perspective on SP over next 3-4 weeks welcomed.


----------



## alankew (27 December 2006)

Just been on to the company website.After previously emailing them to see if any info is available re sulphur springs and getting no reply,if you click on the dropdown menu for SS drilling it says "Update in Progress"  Dont know if this is new or was on web before and didnt notice it-anyone else been on recently and tried this link with different results


----------



## bigt (28 December 2006)

Does anyone know of any good reason why CBH is the only big zinc stock to take a backward step today? I just dont get this one...producing, great projects, cash in bank...this should be powering along. There is a uneasy feeling of negativity towards CBH...SS feasability results overdue, directors selling shares /options..seems to be hit harder thanall other zincers, even on good news.

Could this be big boys capping the price (trades do not look like it) ,or is it just an average stock at the moment, out of fashion with the market?


----------



## michael_selway (28 December 2006)

bigt said:
			
		

> Does anyone know of any good reason why CBH is the only big zinc stock to take a backward step today? I just dont get this one...producing, great projects, cash in bank...this should be powering along. There is a uneasy feeling of negativity towards CBH...SS feasability results overdue, directors selling shares /options..seems to be hit harder thanall other zincers, even on good news.
> 
> Could this be big boys capping the price (trades do not look like it) ,or is it just an average stock at the moment, out of fashion with the market?




its happens, OMC went down today, a uranium explorer

thx

MS


----------



## bigt (28 December 2006)

yes, agree, but OMC is slightly different as has just doubled in price with a TO from Denison...not much further upside from the fundamentals...and this is not a U producer...CBH On other hand has not been approached for a TO...but has languished...just thought it was a little out of touch from the other zincers.


----------



## nizar (29 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> its happens, OMC went down today, a uranium explorer
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Comparing a uranium explorer and a zinc producer, not exactly comparing apples with apples here are we michael?


----------



## michael_selway (29 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Comparing a uranium explorer and a zinc producer, not exactly comparing apples with apples here are we michael?




hm apples to pears maybe...  

thx

MS


----------



## mmmmining (29 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> hm apples to pears maybe...
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




How about a "pear" of apples?

 "apple to apples" (CBH down to other zinc up) 

TO  

"pear to pears" (OMC down to other uranium up).


----------



## alankew (31 December 2006)

Finally got a response from company re Sulphur Springs,obviously no hint of anything but "Thank you for your email, we will be able to reply to you next week."The wait continues


----------



## nizar (31 December 2006)

Tetrahedrite said:
			
		

> 4 days until christmas, and still no SS BFS. I wonder what the hold up is. Long overdue.




Was supposed to be released in July.


----------



## ned1 (3 January 2007)

Hi all

Am currently reevaluating my holdings for 07 and had planned to hold CBH long term. However I have read the latest Broker reports and must say I am not that impressed about CBH's prospects for Share price growth in 07. I see a best case scenario of $1 for 07 if zinc price rises slightly or remains steady in 07.

Quote from the Holst report 
*Re Sulfer Springs * - "_production commencing by the end of the September quarter 2008 (some slippage is possible/likely). Likely capital cost estimates (including contingencies) now exceed $200m (even higher than we expected)"_

*Re Broken Hill * - "_Company expects to commence production in 2008_"

It seems to me that CBH are going to miss the boom in zinc prices with most of their projects likely to come on either late 08 or early 09.

What do long term holders think?


----------



## dj_420 (3 January 2007)

i share your concern. i planned to hold for long term but am not sure now. i have already sold half my holdings in the last run we had and put into JMS and doubled up.

my other zinc is stock JML is outperforming CBH now. i still have all of my original holding of JML.

CBH had a great run until now, now it is just trending sideways and volume has dropped dramatically.


----------



## alankew (5 January 2007)

Reply from email today ref overdue statement"The bankable F.S. for the Sulphur Springs deposit is complete and the Company is reviewing the documents prior to going to the board for adoption on the 24 Jan. We expect to release the project details following the board meeting."


----------



## sleeper88 (5 January 2007)

toho zinc has increased its stake from approx 22% to 24%


----------



## dj_420 (5 January 2007)

im out, sick of waiting for SS BFS, there are surely better homes for my money.

SP has slowly been dropping, broke support, and ive taken the rest off my holding off the boards.

might re-enter at 60 cents where it found support on last retracement. from memory it was about 61 cents the sp found strong support.

- IMO this company has had very poor record with keeping shareholders informed
- analysts have been downgrading earnings per share on this stock
- major shareholders liquidating
- major delays with announcements


----------



## saichuen (5 January 2007)

Short term wise, CBH may not necessary looks that good from the chart now. However, I will be ready to top again at around 0.61 to 0.65 if it gets there. Fundamentally, it is still sound and nothing has changed. I believe long term wise, this is probably a winner. DYOR.


----------



## sleeper88 (22 January 2007)

quarterly report out today, looks like endeavor is back on track providing strong cash flow for the company. 2007 should be a big year for CBH provided it can deliver on its promising development and exploration projects. 
lets hope this announcement + the pending BFS will reverse the SP's recent downward trend.


----------



## michael_selway (22 January 2007)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> quarterly report out today, looks like endeavor is back on track providing strong cash flow for the company. 2007 should be a big year for CBH provided it can deliver on its promising development and exploration projects.
> lets hope this announcement + the pending BFS will reverse the SP's recent downward trend.




great move today!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 10.7 13.5 24.0 
DPS 0.0 0.5 2.9 0.5 * 

thx

MS


----------



## powerkoala (31 January 2007)

anyone still with this ?
announcement today regarding new mine panorama
could be the starting point toward production
but cost quite high compare to cash at the moment
any other view ?


----------



## sleeper88 (31 January 2007)

i've been holding this for 6 months, it took them a while to complete the BFS. Production 4Q 2008..seems like a long time away, which is disappointing given CBH's management took a darn long time to release the BFS, im guessing it'll take them well into 2009 before production begins. Even though they have $70m in the bank, they'll need to find +$140m in financing, equity and debt i presume.


----------



## UMike (7 February 2007)

FYI

Westpac Broking have started to review this Company.

They have rated it an Accumulate.


----------



## itchy (27 February 2007)

CBH slowely climbing back!
Possible reversal of trend in progress!
im just a little bummed i didnt buy more in the 50'S!
all zinc stock fared well today


----------



## UMike (27 February 2007)

itchy said:
			
		

> CBH slowely climbing back!
> Possible reversal of trend in progress!
> im just a little bummed i didnt buy more in the 50'S!
> all zinc stock fared well today



What do you mean by "Possible reversal of trend in progress!"

I've bought and sold well this stock.


----------



## michael_selway (27 February 2007)

UMike said:
			
		

> What do you mean by "Possible reversal of trend in progress!"
> 
> I've bought and sold well this stock.




I think he means CBH has fallen but will surpass its previous high in the not so distant future

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 9.6 12.1 4.4 
DPS 0.0 0.5 2.9 0.5

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 9.6 6.7 -- 
Year Ending 30-06-08 12.1 5.3 26.0% * 

thx

MS


----------



## UMike (7 March 2007)

Well it bottomed at 50c yesterday.

picked some more up at 52.5c and now it is 59c.

Corrections aren't so bad after all 

Hope it gets back to 65c soon


----------



## sleeper88 (7 March 2007)

i feel there are advantages for PEM and CBH to merge. To get this M&A running, PEM will first need to divest their gold operations (currently underway). 

First and foremost, economies of scale can be applied to their Broken Hill projects. PEM's existing BH mine can be incorporated with CBH's rasp mine, inaddtion with PEM's potosi and north mine deeps. 
The merged entity will have 2 operating mines, BH and Endeavor generating strong cash cashflow. It will also have a very very strong development pipeline, with sulphur springs in WA, BH regional, flinders in SA, Mineral Hill and Hera coming online in the next couple of years. Adding to this are a portfolio of very encouraging exploration projects around Australia. The merged entity would rival that of ZFX, as Australia's premier zinc producer. 

just my 2c worth


----------



## porkpie324 (8 March 2007)

You can now trade CBH using CFDs, it's now in the ASX300, so Tuesday I took advantage of the weakness and opened a position, lot better and cheaper than buying the physical shares. porkpie


----------



## UMike (8 March 2007)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> You can now trade CBH using CFDs, it's now in the ASX300, so Tuesday I took advantage of the weakness and opened a position, lot better and cheaper than buying the physical shares. porkpie



Pardon my ignorance...... What is a CFD?


----------



## porkpie324 (9 March 2007)

Mike, CFD's are an instrument for trading shares on margin. You can check out the many providers on the net, porkpie


----------



## porkpie324 (9 March 2007)

Mike, BTW, I closed my pos this morning, although CBH is a good co. at this point there is some weakness with CBH making lower highs and lows, just being a bit careful until the trend changes.porkpie


----------



## UMike (10 March 2007)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Mike, BTW, I closed my pos this morning, although CBH is a good co. at this point there is some weakness with CBH making lower highs and lows, just being a bit careful until the trend changes.porkpie



Fair call metal prices have by and large fallen Friday Night.  

Looked up CDF's .... I've got an appointment Tuesday about Margin Loans and other options. 

We'll see how it goes.

Caution is the best option to take.


----------



## Halba (11 March 2007)

Its CFD's umike.


----------



## UMike (11 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Its CFD's umike.



:roll: ...Typo.... 

CFD's.... Like the ad  above right on your screen :


----------



## alankew (20 March 2007)

ASX site says this is trading halt until 23rd or until company is ready to release info, any ideas on what it could be?


----------



## sleeper88 (20 March 2007)

hmmm, capital raising (highly unlikely), takeover offer for TNG (highly unlikely), being taken over (probable), Endeavor mine closure AGAIN (probable   ), resource upgrade for their various projects (probable), sale of iron ore interests (unlikely)

The share price has been sliding downwards for a while now, given its good development prospects i wouldn't rule out a possible takeover offer from the likes of PEM or KZL or even Toho Zinc


----------



## alankew (20 March 2007)

I'm thinking (hoping) takeover by PEM.


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

Hi guys looking at the presentation it could be a capital raising of some sort, to fund their new mines. Its not a takeover by PEM, as PEM is not in trading halt.


----------



## Stan 101 (20 March 2007)

I just sent a txt to the Secretary. He placed his mobile number on the ASX doc.
It will be funny if I get a reply..I'll be sure to let you know if I do..


Cheers,


----------



## Stan 101 (20 March 2007)

I have no basis for this, but I believe this is going to be all good news... I'm looking for other stocks in trading halt... Is there any data on what business is in trading halt that can be downloaded?


Cheers,


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

Hello all. It's definitely a placement of some sort. Look at the amount of capital required in the presentation. Money doesn't grow on trees people.


----------



## jollyfrog (20 March 2007)

Hey Stan 101 try cvn they have a trading halt untill 22/3


----------



## blueroo (21 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> hello all. its definitely a placement of some sort. Look at the amount of capital required in the presentation. Money doesn't grow on trees people.



Yep, my thoughts exactly. Looking at their showy presentation, planned capital expenditure equals everything they have got including cash in hand.


----------



## UMike (21 March 2007)

So is that good or bad for the SP.

With the way the SP has been sold down of late I feel it may be the latter.


----------



## Halba (21 March 2007)

Umike this is negative short term. Bear in mind zinc is in a seasonal slump and is no longer in deficit. 

Of course considering they have a pretty good pipeline of projects fine long term.

I don't hold CBH.


----------



## UMike (21 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Umike this is negative short term. Bear in mind zinc is in a seasonal slump and is no longer in deficit.
> 
> Of course considering they have a pretty good pipeline of projects fine long term.
> 
> I don't hold CBH.



 BHP, ZFX, TZN, ect... have recovered from the recent negative activity. CBH has dropped further.   
I hold a shyte load.
Since that is the case I watch them very very carefully. The last 2 days they have really been sold down.

From my research they are a great company and barring anything unforeseen should be a great long term investment.


----------



## michael_selway (21 March 2007)

jollyfrog said:
			
		

> Hey Stan 101 try cvn they have a trading halt untill 22/3




Looks like that are out of trading halt already.

thx

MS


----------



## Halba (22 March 2007)

> Umike: BHP, ZFX, TZN, ect... have recovered from the recent negative activity. CBH has dropped further.




Hi UMike. I'm not sure whether you should compare bhp,zfx to CBH. For one, BHP is a goliath and has very good commodity spread, longer mine lifes, lower costs. Its a great company and I have some invested. Its going up because copper has recovered significantly. Its also a blue chip. Also ZFX is a medium cost producer hence still will make good money, pay good dividends at lower zinc levels. Also it hasn't really recovered, the chart shows it is struggling with $16.50 resistance. 

TZN have just got their mine approval, this is why they recovered. They've been waiting a few yrs for their approvals.  Not fair to compare with CBH, as TZN mkt cap only $150m. 

CBH looks like a victim of its past problems, and high cost base of production(its probably the highest cost zinc metal producer on the market, with Perilya)



> UMike: I hold a shyte load.




Obviously can't advise as i don't know how much you have relative to your portfolio, or your entry level/how long you have been in(it has appreciated from 25c since the mine problem). But consider some risk management in the future. Don't convert into a long term loser. Few reasons i did not invest in CBH was the management team(Besley and Wall in BMA gold failure), and the position on the zinc cost per pound curve. But they are aggressively going about their business and i like their vision.


----------



## Moneybags (22 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Hi UMike. I'm not sure whether you should compare bhp,zfx to CBH. For one, BHP is a goliath and has very good commodity spread, longer mine lifes, lower costs. Its a great company and I have some invested. Its going up because copper has recovered significantly. Its also a blue chip. Also ZFX is a medium cost producer hence still will make good money, pay good dividends at lower zinc levels. Also it hasn't really recovered, the chart shows it is struggling with $16.50 resistance.
> 
> TZN have just got their mine approval, this is why they recovered. They've been waiting a few yrs for their approvals.  Not fair to compare with CBH, as TZN mkt cap only $150m.
> 
> ...





Very nice work Halba. One of your best. I'm sure U mike will be appreciative.

MB


----------



## GeneralSantos (22 March 2007)

Do we have consensus on the probability of a positive trading halt outcome?

I'm sceptically optimistic...


----------



## goldman (22 March 2007)

I spoke to the secretary of CBH yesterday said they where in the process of converting bonds to cash for the amount of 200mil whats ur opinion queing bid price has increased and PEM.AX shares are going up so should CBH. Strange offer price of CBH though of .45 when the bid is .535 and last price was .505


----------



## Halba (22 March 2007)

umike and all

I have got an article that shows zinc stockpile increases looking temporary. Thought you might be interested, so there is nothing to worry for your CBH shares.



> LME FOCUS - Zinc price under pressure, as visible inventory builds up
> 
> BaseMetals.com
> 
> ...


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## UMike (22 March 2007)

Thanks Halba   

I'm not so much worried about Zinc rather than CBH.


The majority of shares were purchased at around the $.52 to $.525 mark.
I almost sold a huge lot at $.57 on the 12-3-07. Then I'd be happy with buying the amount that I did a couple of days ago.


I've had SEN, PPX, FUN and API get to a trading halt then fall dramatically to still make god money on them. (Well SEN is still pending   )


I have nothing to add on this current situation so I'll wait with the rest of you as to what happens with CBH tommorrow.


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## alankew (23 March 2007)

Goldman spot on with your info-initially market didnt like it but seems to have changed its mind.Toho will be pumping in another $50 plus other players-got to be good news


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## goldman (23 March 2007)

Finding out whether someone had inside info before the halt of trade was made public because there was a mil and a half shares on offer for 45 after end of trade tuesday. considering the last price was 505 and the last bid was 52


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## PBH (23 March 2007)

goldman said:
			
		

> Finding out whether someone had inside info before the halt of trade was made public because there was a mil and a half shares on offer for 45 after end of trade tuesday. considering the last price was 505 and the last bid was 52




Hmmm, well I think it would be hard to prove that this particular person had specific info, rather than just anticipating a negative reaction to whatever would be announced following the trading halt.

And as long as the price holds above 0.45, the actions of this person can hardly be said to have been vindicated. There's no law against selling your shares for less than you could have...

As for the announcement itself, I view it as positive overall, and expect the shareprice to behave accordingly in the coming months.


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## goldman (23 March 2007)

It would be very odd though if i find out that the offer of 45 went in before any announcements where made. ie why would u want to sell for .45 when the last price was 505 and bidding 52. the trading halt announcement went in at 6.00pm after trading.


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## goldman (23 March 2007)

Ps bad timing for a trade halt as cbh should be around 58 this week as all similar companies gained.


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## Jimminy (23 March 2007)

this was a comment I made elsewhere back in January re; CBH. Alot still applies:

Things that need to be kept at the forefront of an investor's mind looking for a buy opportunity are reflected in CBH. Here's why.

CBH Resources (CBH) has reported a return to full production at its Endeavor mine with production for the December quarter at 93% capacity. This was a 41% increase on the previous quarter and restores production to a 1.2 million tonnes per annum rate following the 6z2 stope hanging wall failure in October 2005. A total of 280,600 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 6.8% zinc, 4.0% lead and 32 g/t silver was treated during 2Q07 with 32,200 tonnes of zinc concentrate containing 16,300 tonnes of zinc and 18,550 tonnes of lead concentrate containing 9,080 tonnes of lead produced. Unaudited half yearly pre-tax operational profit was approximately $30 million. Note operational tax, not cash flow Fed Ex.

The focus for the quarter was on the establishment of consistent performance from mining unit processes such as production drilling, ore haulage and equipment availability. The progress made in mining development in previous quarters has resulted in the new 290 level of the mine being a major source of ore from primary stopes.

Zinc recovery averaged 85% for the quarter compared to 87% in the corresponding quarter in 2005. This reflected the lower proportion of courser grained development ore from the 290 level of the mine in the total tonnes milled.

The bankable feasibility study for the Sulphur Springs zinc and copper project in the Pilbara region of WA was completed during the December quarter and a project development plan is being finalised for presentation to the board this month. The Notice of Intent application for mining and for construction of the site access road has been submitted. Orders have been placed for the longest lead time items for the project, the SAG mill and ball mill, totalling $9.5 million.

The tender process for the decline to access the Western Mineralisation on CML 7 at Broken Hill as Phase 1 of the Rasp mine development was completed and the contract awarded during the December quarter. All approval applications for the development of the decline have been received. Site work on the decline commenced in the first week of January and is scheduled to be completed with orebody access in April 2008.

CBH has identified a potential copper resource at Mineral Hill that would allow the reopening on the mine. The project was acquired through the takeover of Triako Resources and work has commenced on defining mining options for the resource and establishing the re-opening costs and project economics. The company has also commenced the process of seeking necessary approvals to re-open the mine and re-commence processing of copper ore. Subject to receiving the approvals and final project economics being favourable a December quarter 2007 re-start would be feasible.

At the Hera project a review of the resource estimate is in progress that will update the previous Triako Resources total of 1.9 million tonnes averaging 6.7 g/t gold, 2.8% zinc, 2.5% lead and 14 g/t silver. Drilling has commenced to expand this resource and to test below some of the last holes drilled by Triako such as TNY074AW that intersected 6.9 metres averaging 17.1 g/t gold, 13.5% zinc, 8.2% lead and 45 g/t silver. Further exploration targets have been identified along the Hera trend of mineralisation that extends for a distance of 7 kilometres from the Hebe prospect in the south to the old Nymagee copper-lead-zinc mine in the north. Drilling has commenced on targets in the Hebe area.

The CBH share price has retraced from its highs of over 80 cents in early November 2006 for a variety of reasons that I believe included the market's reaction to the ultimately succesful scrip-based takeover of fellow NSW base metal developer, Triako Resources (TKR) and the loss of production from the stope failure. With the TKR takeover not only bedded down but CBH now talking positively about several base metal development opportunities being considered (being the Hera deposit and resumption of mining at the currently closed Mineral Hill mine) and Cobar mine back to full production rates and generating very strong returns from the high zinc and other metal prices, I believe the market will begin to re-rate CBH as it progressively achieves a number of production and new development milestones over the next year or so.

At its current price of 63 cents, I believe CBH is priced on relatively modest fundamentals compared to its peers and with its attractive development options, expect the market to begin to recognise this and re-rate the stock. 

If this meets your risk profile I would recommend it as a buy. But as always do your own research and make your own decisions based on your circumstances.


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## Jimminy (23 March 2007)

I think CBH offers one of the best value stocks in base metals at present. At 49.5c close this presents a terrific long term hold proposition.

I took a position today @ 50c.  

By calculation, with RASP and Sulphur Springs to be developed zinc production could jump to beyond 200,000 tonnes by 2010.


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## goldman (27 March 2007)

News came back from ASX appears nothing out of the ordinary with .450 offer, CBH looks all good.


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## UMike (28 March 2007)

It is slowly starting to get back to a decent price again.


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## UMike (10 April 2007)

Upto 56c now.

LME Zinc up 4% atm. Glad I held on.

Any other holders?


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## PBH (11 April 2007)

Am I the only one here who thinks that the conversion price of $0.67 per share for the proposed convertable notes is far too low? 

At the current price of $0.56 that works out at $0.11 appreciation over 5 years, or 2.2 cents per year....

It would seem to me that a more fair and reasonable conversion rate would be somewhere around the $0.75 mark.

As it stands I think the low conversion rate (should it be approved at the meeting) is going to put a serious long term dampner on any appreciation of the share price. Thus it might not be a bad idea to bale out once we get to around the $0.65 mark.


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## Riesling (26 April 2007)

The chart for CBH is looking seriously good at the moment.

Large volume on Tuesday, good open today and large volumes again so far today.  Sentiment certainly appears to have changed.

As well as being a current producer, it has a number of projects in the pipeline, so growth should be positive and could be outstanding if managed well.

Looks to me like the recent pull back might be finished.


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## Sean K (26 April 2007)

Riesling said:


> The chart for CBH is looking seriously good at the moment.
> 
> Large volume on Tuesday, good open today and large volumes again so far today.  Sentiment certainly appears to have changed.
> 
> As well as being a current producer, it has a number of projects in the pipeline, so growth should be positive and could be outstanding if managed well.



 Yep, looks like it's turned from long term down trend. Needs to test 60, as new support to be validated.


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## Riesling (26 April 2007)

Thanks for posting the chart.  plenty of support between 0.59 and 0.605.  will be good to see where it finishes.   I think I might get on if I can at 0.60.


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## nizar (26 April 2007)

Kennas.
Also note that its not trading above its 200dma.
It could also find suppport there, just below that is where i would put my (EOD) stop if i was trading this one.


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## goldman (26 April 2007)

Still way undervalued theres a heap of tin pot exploration companies out there for the same money that arnt even producing or earning money.


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## GREENS (22 May 2007)

BSD or anyone else that is into base metals, I have been meaning to do a personal valuation for CBH for a while now, but each time I sit down to do one, I get deterred because I am unsure whether you value the company on its zinc concentrate or contained zinc.


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## Lachlan6 (22 May 2007)

Just checked out the company report on Westpac site. Couldnt agree more on this one. On weekly just recently bounced off resistance turned support and I will enter if it can break the May highs of $0.65. Predicted MUCH higer earnings in next two years placing it at a steal at prospective 8 times PE next year. Waiting and watching closely.


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## UMike (31 May 2007)

CBH announcement:

They are fast tracking the RASP mine in Broken hill.

Shares jumped 3.5c on the announcement. to a .56c close

Just need Zinc prices to move up abit to see this sp consolidate over 60c


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## GREENS (14 June 2007)

Any thoughts on these new dill results at Kangaroo Caves?  The grades look good in places but seem to be no depth to the mineralization with the largest intersection at 20metres. 

Would create huge efficiencies for CBH if another economical deposit could be mined close to the existing Sulphur Spring mine currently under development. Drilling will continue at two other locations of the next few the company said, however the markets weren’t too fused with this announcement at all.

13/6/07 “Seventeen holes have been completed at the Kangaroo Caves Zinc-Copper Deposit and five of the first six holes returned significant intersections of zinc and copper mineralization”:

KCC 20   from  101 to 110 metres	 9 metres @ 2.6% Zn, 0.1% Cu
                    112 to 132 metres	20 metres @ 13.7%Zn, 0.2% Cu
                    139 to 151 metres 	12 metres @ 2.7% Zn, 0.1% Cu

KCC 18   from    58 to 73 metres 	15 metres @ 11.6% Zn, 0.3% Cu
                     108 to 115 metres 	  7 metres @ 0.3% Zn, 2.7% Cu

KCC 21   from  105 to 108 metres	 3 metres @ 2.9% Zn, 0.1% Cu
                    128 to 139 metres 	11 metres @ 1.0% Zn, 0.2% Cu
                    139 to 145 metres 	 6 metres @ 0.4% Zn, 2.7% Cu

KCC 19   from   47 to 55 metres 	 8 metres @ 1.7% Zn, 1.0% Cu
                     60 to 68 metres 	 8 metres @ 3.4% Zn, 0.6% Cu

KCC 22   from  41 to 49 metres 	8 metres @ 1.7% Zn, 0.1% Cu
	       56 to 58 metres	2 metres @ 0.1% Zn, 1.5% Cu


Previous drill results last year (06) were very similar:

KCC    9 metres @ 13.3% Zinc and 1.9% Lead, from 63-72 metres and
        56 metres @ 6.8% Zinc and 1.0% Copper, from 95-151 metres

KCC10   24 metres @ 6.5% Zinc and 0.5% Copper, from 213-237 metres
KCC4 	6 metres @ 11.0% Zinc and 2.5% Lead, from 233-239 metres


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## Lachlan6 (14 June 2007)

Just another quick look at (CBH), after today's nice little rise on big volume. It needs to break the 38.2% fibonacci level before I will jump in, however the bullish divergence in the RSI in Feb and March has shown that CBH has bottomed and is now looking for a run higher. Furthermore, it is currently sitting around the long term downtrend line, so clearing this is crucial for the fortunes of CBH. However I really like the fundamentals of this company and if this resistance can be broken, it should target the old highs of $0.85 and from there, who knows.


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## Sean K (14 June 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Just another quick look at (CBH), after today's nice little rise on big volume. It needs to break the 38.2% fibonacci level before I will jump in, however the bullish divergence in the RSI in Feb and March has shown that CBH has bottomed and is now looking for a run higher. Furthermore, it is currently sitting around the long term downtrend line, so clearing this is crucial for the fortunes of CBH. However I really like the fundamentals of this company and if this resistance can be broken, it should target the old highs of $0.85 and from there, who knows.



Lauchy, chart wise this is starting to look really interesting. Not sure why it didn't continue on at the start of May. That push looked like a clear break from it's downward trend since Nov/Dec last year. Breaking 65 looks like a pretty hard challenge. If it clears it, then there's weak resistance back to 85. Looks good at the moment. Will be watching closely. Thanks.


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## UMike (14 June 2007)

This stock is the good news of the day. 

Had a high resistance @ 60c wiped away very quick.

Next resistance is @ 62c imo.


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## Dutchy3 (17 June 2007)

I'm with the bulls on this one ... looking for a strong close next week with STOP around 55 ish

Should be able to gear nicely into a position


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## UMike (17 June 2007)

Monday should be a strong day for this share given the consolidation on Friday the increase in the DOW and Zinc price overnight.


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## GREENS (18 June 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> However I really like the fundamentals of this company and if this resistance can be broken, it should target the old highs of $0.85 and from there, who knows.




CBH up around 5% on extremely strong volume of 7.3 m to $0.63 as at 11:30 am, and nearing that strong resistance level at $0.65. Lauchlan, Kennas and UMike from a Fundamental view I did a few conservative figures on CBH for the full year 07 (i.e. start Jan – end of Dec) and have not yet completed the following years, this is a summary of what I came up with:

Assumptions: 

•Total ore output of endeavor mine is around 1.05 million tonnes for 07 which is well below the full capacity of the mine (1.2-1.3m tonnes p.a.). Out of this is approx 6.6% Zn, 3.5% Ld, with recovery levels of around 85%, 81% respectively. In additional to their main base metals production the mine produces around 15,500kg of silver & 1,000t of copper.
•Using average prices received for 07 of:
Zinc – US$1.60/lb
Lead – US$0.80/lb
Silver – US$12/oz
Copper – US$3/lb
•Used around a 20% profit margin to take into a/c all the exploration and development activity the company is currently undertaking at Sulphur Springs, Broken Hill and the Cobar district.
•Company has approx 780m shares on offer.

Risks: 

•This company like most does not come with out its risks however problems have plagued the Endeavor mine in the past, cave in of part of the mine occurred at the end of 05, where production was stopped for a prolonged period of time. 
•Management are unreliable, announcements come out months after there due and production levels seem to always fall short of there expectations. 

Result:

Given the company continues to trade on a PE multiple of 10 the company should generate EPS of around $0.09 which equates to a market cap = 702m i.e. a 42% premium to what they are trading on in intraday this morning (Aspect Huntly has forecasted EPS for 07 and 08 of $0.06 and $0.11). The company has some potential upside with two new mines to come online over the next 2 years which will see a three fold increase in copper and a significant rise in zinc and lead production. 

Greens


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## goldman (19 June 2007)

I live in the area and the ore at rasp mine found to be high grade, that has been mined while declining has allready paid for the broken hill operation. Been in contact with many Broken Hill miners and i can assure that .65 cents is a bargin and strongly reccomend upto a $1.00 in value per share.

Take it from someone who is in the know


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## GREENS (19 June 2007)

goldman said:


> I live in the area and the ore at rasp mine found to be high grade, that has been mined while declining has allready paid for the broken hill operation. Been in contact with many Broken Hill miners and i can assure that .65 cents is a bargin and strongly reccomend upto a $1.00 in value per share.
> 
> Take it from someone who is in the know




I knew that the high grade ore was being mined while the company is in process of finishing the decline to the main part of the ore body, but would not have presumed that it would have already covered the costs of development. 

Isn’t that just what I said, “It is trading at around a 42% discount to its intrinsic value” given a relatively conservative production forecast that did not even take into account the throughput of the high grade ore from broken hill. However Goldman I fully agree that this company does seem like good value at these prices, maybe investors are still incorporating a certain risk factor in to the share price given the past troubles of the endeavour mine (which is holding the SP back a little) and hopefully the company will be re-rated as it becomes a multi-mine company and a more diverse base metals producer (i.e. increases its copper production).


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## goldman (20 June 2007)

I agree Greens. Having spoken to a number of those involved with the endeavour mine I have no fear that we will see a repeat of what happened in 2005. they have explained the measures taken to stop any further cave ins and also what caused the cave in, in the first instance. the previous company had taken more dirt from that area then records had indicated. CBH has done well to make money from an unstable mine such as endeavour.
I look forward to seeing how well they do with the Rasp mine, if they do as well in Broken Hill as they have in Cobar the shares are a great buy at .63.


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## PBH (20 June 2007)

The only reason the shareprice is currently hanging around $0.63 is that the technical traders have decided $0.65 is a good place to set up shop and construct a barrier. 

However, with the fundamentals stacking up so favourably at the moment, and becoming more favourable by the day, expect this barrier to be wiped out VERY soon. Once the floodgates have opened, I'm picking it to race up to $0.77 - $0.78 in short order, and continue it's long term ascent from there.

Good value? 
CBH will soon (in a couple of years) have THREE(!!!) fully operational mines pumping out zinc and lead. And as the outlook for base metal prices in the medium to long term looks decidedly positive (IMO anyway..), this should produce a very healthy cashflow.
What is also important to note is the fact that all these mines are located in what, from a geopolitical point of view, would have to rate as one of the most stable and business-friendly countries anywhere on this planet. So what you end up with is a risk/reward ratio that, with the SP anywhere below $0.95, I'd be willing to stack up against ANY other mining company, any time, any day.
So from my point of view, the answer is a definate "yes".

As always though; DYOR!


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## Stan 101 (21 June 2007)

It was reassuring to see CBH hold its position in yesterdays trading when some resources were on the decline. usually CBH reacts strongly to any drop at all.
Zinifex lost ground yesterday on a few strong trading days and usually, in my experience, that means CBH will chase a lower price strongly. This is the first confident step CBH has taken in some time.


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## goldman (21 June 2007)

Why would anyone in their right mind decide to put a stop on at .65 dosent appear too technical too me


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## nizar (21 June 2007)

goldman said:


> Why would anyone in their right mind decide to put a stop on at .65 dosent appear too technical too me




Yeh i was thinking the same thing.

Traders, unlike investors (who sell when fully valued) usually DO NOT limit the upside.

Dont try to find a reason for share price movements -- they are beyond your control.

But KNOW what to do if the share price goes up, down, or sideways -- will you be buying, selling, or holding?

Leave the analysis to the analysts, the guys that go on TV and make predictions, when they are wrong they can make an excuse, when they are right they beat their chests. LOL


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## Dutchy3 (22 June 2007)

I must say how disappointed I am with the CLOSE this week. Looked the goods during the week and yet ...

Teach me to buy actual breakouts rather than my fantasy of what should be a breakout ... still long ... so upset I don't even have the heart to post a chart


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## porkpie324 (23 June 2007)

When comparing CBH with Zinifex it looks like CBH is dragging the anchor a bit, but I'm sure that will change as the zinc price appreciates, porkpie


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## GREENS (24 June 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> When comparing CBH with Zinifex it looks like CBH is dragging the anchor a bit, but I'm sure that will change as the zinc price appreciates, porkpie




Considering CBH and ZFX should be relatively positively correlated, as both share prices are heavily reliant on zinc prices and to a lesser extent lead prices. However we have seen a change in this relationship since both companies were at peaks in late 06 (i.e. when both companies hit there peaks around the same time). After Friday’s close we can see that ZFX is trading around 3.5% of its 52 week high while CBH is trading around 29.5% off its 52 week high. Quite interesting considering Zn prices have come well of their highs and out of the two companies you would think CBH would be less affected given its considerably large exploration and development upside, with two new mines coming into production over the next 1.5-2 years and ramp up off their currently producing mine Endeavor taking place this year and into 08. As I’ve said before maybe some investors are staying on the sideline with this one until it does become a multi mine company given the past problems with the Endeavor mine. 

The latest CBH presentation has just come out, quite an interesting read, But what drew my eye was that the company plans to hedge a quarter of its base metal and foreign exchange exposure over the next year starting from June 2007. The company also expects to be producing by 2008/09; 225,000 tones of Zn concentrate, 90,000 tones of Ld concentrate and approx 75,000 tones of copper in concentrate. 

Anyway CBH faired considerably well this week given the fall in Zn prices (7%) for the week.


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## GREENS (24 June 2007)

GREENS said:


> CBH up around 5% on extremely strong volume of 7.3 m to $0.63 as at 11:30 am, and nearing that strong resistance level at $0.65. Lauchlan, Kennas and UMike from a Fundamental view I did a few conservative figures on CBH for the full year 07 (i.e. start Jan – end of Dec) and have not yet completed the following years, this is a summary of what I came up with:
> 
> Assumptions:
> 
> ...




my bad, got this wrong there are more than 780 million shares on offer, in fact 830 million, but considering I used a PE of 10 (which I would believe to be considerably low for the growth profile of this company) the same result would be very close. If it still trades on a PE of 10 then EPS would fall to $0.084 instead of $0.09 implying a market capitalisation of approx $690m.


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## countryboy (24 June 2007)

Cobar must be having some issues with labour...not sure what...maybe management just trying to do things cheaper ? i think Monday will see a drop in CBH as the market follows fridays  New York numbers.


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## chicken (9 July 2007)

bought into CBH......at 60c today....see Minebox Kangaroo Sipas results...this must be a ver undervaled mineral play.....comments


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## muddy (9 July 2007)

I bought this at 62.5 a while ago and its been in the red since, but i have faith in this one.


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## doctorj (9 July 2007)

chicken said:


> bought into CBH......at 60c today....see Minebox Kangaroo Sipas results...this must be a ver undervaled mineral play.....comments



Why is it undervalued?  Can you please share your analysis Chicken?  What would you value it at?

You can do better than that Chicken!


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## Ken (9 July 2007)

CBH...

Margin lending ratio is 50%.

Interesting long term play in my opinion.

I think its good value..  but does the market?


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## peterke (9 July 2007)

The value of CBH depends on your belief of future ZN prices. If you believe that ZN will be above $1 for the next few years then CBH is great value with a value of $500m and $250m cash, a pe of around 4 and significant growth prospects.

However if ZN declines significantly with the new supply entering the market from late 07 then CBH is looking far less profitable and their new mines marginal.

Many of the analysts believe ZN will fall over the next few years hence CBH and other ZN companies are on low multiples.

However with the major resource companies undergoing a sector revaluation at the moment ( BHP up 50% in a few months etc) this will flow down to the second tier companies shortly.

I've held CBH for awhile now and remain optimistic

regards


Peter


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## michael_selway (9 July 2007)

chicken said:


> bought into CBH......at 60c today....see Minebox Kangaroo Sipas results...this must be a ver undervaled mineral play.....comments




The only thing I dont why is 2009 forecast EPS is only 3.5 and in 2008 its 10.8?

Thx
MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -2.8 6.1 10.8 3.5 
DPS 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.5 *

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 6.1 9.8 -- 
Year Ending 30-06-08 10.8 5.5 77.0% *


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## Stan 101 (9 July 2007)

Ken said:


> CBH...
> 
> Margin lending ratio is 50%.




Ken, NAB have CBH on 60% margin, if that's of any benefit to you. It has been for some time now

Cheers,


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (9 July 2007)

peterke said:


> The value of CBH depends on your belief of future ZN prices. If you believe that ZN will be above $1 for the next few years then CBH is great value with a value of $500m and $250m cash, a pe of around 4 and significant growth prospects.
> 
> However if ZN declines significantly with the new supply entering the market from late 07 then CBH is looking far less profitable and their new mines marginal.
> 
> ...





Thats a very simplistic model on CBH's PE/MC and bears no resemblance to there 06/07 financials or notes on issue to be converted in due course.

Its more than reasonable too assume that CBH are in a net tangable position to realize there pipeline of forward growth with COH and forward earnings to fund future CAPEX with minimal further dilution.

A close look at CBH on a peer comparisson, would clearly idicate too blind freddy that  .............. CBH are the pick of the bunch, from a forward production profile.

As for the resource blue chips undergoing a sector revaluation, not really....just catching up too some fair value whilst still maintaining reasonable levels across the broader index...... hyped by the more speculative stocks in recent times !.



_Note: currently hold CBH_


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## Ken (9 July 2007)

Totally agree. BHP and RIO sat for sometime, whilst the banks and other private equities peformed strongly.

Everything in phases. When people start to get the jitters about falling copper prices, or oil.. the money will go into the banks again, and the telcos. 

That is the way I have seen it.

I remember BHP at $24 and a lot of people were calling for it to fall to $18....


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## UMike (10 July 2007)

I've made alot of money with CBH. Buy at 56 or below, sell at 60-61 or above.

I've bought 4 times at 61c or above thinking CBH was gonna "skyrocket" and lost abit of money each time.

btw I think CBH is a very good prospect long term and given rising Zinc, Lead and Cooper prices and a long term Aussie dollar around 78-80c should see the SP around back to there previous highs of the mid 80s cents.


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## Sean K (10 July 2007)

I'm keeping an eye on this myself now. This sideways action will turn one way or the other, so looking for a break through the resistance at about 65 cents. Needs to break that first slightly downward line first, before I start getting excited.


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## Dutchy3 (10 July 2007)

Hi kennas

We are in for yet another run out of these .... I'm finding my watchlist growing each night now. So many compression triangles all at similar stages that within a few weeks we will all be astounded yet again ... I've turned raging bull


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## porkpie324 (10 July 2007)

I agree with Cap'n Klutz, there's money to be made trading CBH buy at about 55c-57c and sell above .60. I had a good trade last week bought mon sold thurs, you can now trade CBH using CFDs. porkpie


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## UMike (10 July 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> I agree with Cap'n Klutz, there's money to be made trading CBH buy at about 55c-57c and sell above .60. I had a good trade last week bought mon sold thurs, you can now trade CBH using CFDs. porkpie



Who's a Klutz ffs gdm. ;-)

Bought some again at 57.5c.  .....

But knowing my luck it'll touch 55c before getting to 60c.


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## porkpie324 (11 July 2007)

I was on the verge of opening on CBH yesterday, but did'nt like the quotes so held off, now today after a small drop in zinc on the LME and a large DJI drop, today could be the day, porkpie


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## GREENS (12 July 2007)

michael_selway said:


> The only thing I dont why is 2009 forecast EPS is only 3.5 and in 2008 its 10.8?
> 
> Thx
> MS
> ...




MS I ran some numbers on CBH profits and EPS for the full 2009 financial year and I have to agree those 09 numbers definitely seem a little odd, considering:
•	Endeavor is expected to ramp up production to around 1.4Mt p.a.
•	Rasp Mine (CML-7) will be operational for around 10/12 months for that time period producing around 750,000t p.a.
•	& Sulphur Springs is expected to begin production early 09 i.e. for around a quarter of this period producing around 1.5Mt p.a.

When I did this I used metal prices of:
Zn – $1.10/lb
Ld – $0.55/lb
Cu – $2.38/lb
Silver – $10.00

If those EPS numbers are for the full calendar year and not the financial year of 2009, then I would expect the EPS to be considerably higher than my calculated EPS figure and $0.035. 

MS it is always good to get a sense for yourself and not rely so much on broker forecasts for EPS figures, Analysts are relatively accurate for the big end of town but fairly inaccurate for the med-smaller end.


----------



## ozambersand (16 July 2007)

Thanks for all this information. I have been watching zinc closely since getting some Zinifex shares in Febuary. I am also looking at the alternatives (eg JML and CBH). So your discussions have been very helpful.

Back in June, GREENS said:



> The latest CBH presentation has just come out, quite an interesting read, But what drew my eye was that the company plans to hedge a quarter of its base metal and foreign exchange exposure over the next year starting from June 2007.




I also checked out the presentation on their site and this is what the MD Bob Besley said:



> They have introduced a strategy to hedge 25% of base metal & associated foreign currency at certain prices, we have reached that price in lead prices but not quite reached it yet in zinc, so we are effectively unhedged.




Can someone please explain to me this information. Are they setting a price lower(?) than it is currently getting in anticipation that either a) the $A exchange rate goes up too much and b) the zinc or lead prices goes down.

Is this a good thing?

My next question is about Toho Zinc. Is it a good or bad thing that they are locked into providing zinc only through their smelters.

Finally, I gather they own a port handling presence at Newcastle. Given the problems with the railway line and shipping out of Newcastle, has anyone heard if this will affect its profits this year?


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## GREENS (16 July 2007)

ozambersand said:


> Can someone please explain to me this information. Are they setting a price lower(?) than it is currently getting in anticipation that either a) the $A exchange rate goes up too much and b) the zinc or lead prices goes down.
> 
> Is this a good thing?
> 
> ...




Ozam thanks for clarifying that I took what Bob Beasley said slightly different than what he actually meant, I listened to it again and to me what he was effectively saying is that they have set price targets for Ld and Zn to hedge at; The lead price is at or above what they wanted (for example $1/lb), so therefore by the sounds of it have hedged around 25% of there lead production for the next year. While Zn has not meet there minimal hedge target (for example 1.80/lb maybe) so therefore have not hedged any of there Zn production so far and thus the company remains almost fully leveraged to spot prices. 

The company would probably be receiving a slightly lower price than thew current spot prices of $1.365/lb mark. They did say they would hedge in the previous month which would mean they hedged at a price somewhere between $1.06-1.17. There next quarterly report should say what average price and amount of production they have hedged at. But don’t forget 75% of lead production is still exposed to these higher spot prices. 

There a bit vague in regards to the currency, not sure whether, when they decide to take a short position to hedge the metal they simultaneously enter into a foreign exchange contract or whether they will enter into the foreign exchange contract regardless of there hedging position in Zn or Ld, (because remember they are only hedging if certain prices are met).

Not 100% sure about the Toho Zn relationship, have wondered that myself? And have my thoughts on the Newcastle port but would only be taking a best guess and do not know enough knowledge about this side of the company. Maybe Rederob would know in regards to the Toho Zn relationship he always seems to have answers for everything!

Greens


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## countryboy (19 July 2007)

have overlooked CBH as an iron ore play:
from the website

CONSTANCE RANGE (IRON)  
The Constance Range iron ore deposits are located in the far north west of Queensland, adjacent to the Northern Territory border. More than fifty years ago the iron ore deposits were identified and drilled by BHP who estimated a non JORC compliant resource of approximately 250Mt @ 52% Fe. 


any thoughts ?


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## rico01 (23 July 2007)

countryboy said:


> have overlooked CBH as an iron ore play:
> from the website
> 
> CONSTANCE RANGE (IRON)
> ...




Looks like CBH is trying real hard  to break up  It should be rerated with the increase in base metal prices over the last year and particularly the last few months.


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## ta2693 (23 July 2007)

I am always looking for a zn pb company to add into my portfolio. CBH looks good. If it can break 62c I will take a small long position.

If it breaks out, I am in. I hope I have some luck here.


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## mick2006 (23 July 2007)

something is certainly going on with CBH with some massive buying going on, not sure if it is institutions adding to their holdings or maybe another miner  taking a stake in the company, so if the time comes for consolidation in the zinc/lead sector they have a foot in CBH's door.


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## hypnotic (23 July 2007)

Zinc spot price should be rerated very soon, due to the fallen stock level in the LME. It is been at its lowest level since forever and this is reflected in the increase in spot price zinc today. Given time we should see the spot price of Zinc back in the US$1.80 - US$1.90/lb mark, which is an increase of roughly 10%. 
Also there is still plenty of demand for iron (steel) in China so there should be demand for zinc also.

It is possibly the increase in the zinc spot price driving up the zinc miners.

JML - up 4%
CBH - up 5.88%
ZFX - up 1.44%
the only exception is KZL - down 0.3% 

Hypnotic


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## rico01 (23 July 2007)

This is the point we're all waiting for.
It should break thru today as I type this it has gone to 64.5.


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## Dutchy3 (23 July 2007)

Hi Hypno

Agreed .... although couldn't quite get there on the close I took a position.

This one has a recent history of accumulation in the compression pattern we have witnessed over the last few months.

Should move on now .... famous last words


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## ozambersand (23 July 2007)

A few posts back, Greens noted:


> Their next quarterly report should say what average price and amount of production they have hedged at. But don’t forget 75% of lead production is still exposed to these higher spot prices.



Which made me look up their last quarter report to see when the next one will be. However, from their website, it looks like they didn't post a quarterly report back in April (when they did post one in previous years) and their next quarterly report is due around 27th July (but no announcement that it will happen then).
Someone else commented on the lack of information out of the company, and I will agree to that statement!
So, apart from what can be gleaned from Bob Besley's audio presentation, a lot of the figures are based on pretty raw data.
Last week, I put Bollinger Band indicators on their chart (but didn't post - sorry), and saw it looked due for a breakout - which it did today.
It will be interesting to see how far it goes and whether it is just expectation of a good report (if it ever gets released!).
I gather they needed Toho zinc to help them get up and running, but in some ways it hampers its attraction as a takeover target by other companies which have their own smelters as I couldn't imagine Toho would be happy to see them disappear.
One advantage of having the Newcastle Port Handling facility is that they hopefully gave their own ore priority during the bottleneck!
I noticed that they had an Appendix 3B announcement today:


> 2 Number of +securities issued or to be issued (if known) or maximum number which may be issued
> 
> 35,000 ordinary shares on exercise of unlisted employee options



Wonder if that had anything to do with the fact that 10,000,000+ shares traded today when there are usually only around 2 or 3 million on average. Could that explain the jump or did it just remind people that the company exists?!


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## motion (24 July 2007)

Hi Guys, 

Now this is just a thought, maybe the movement in the SP is becuase of the results of the remaining 11 holes at Kangaroo Caves is due along with a possible revised resource estimate will be ann as well.

*I refer to ann on the 16/06/07*

CBH Resources advised that RC drilling at the Kangaroo Caves deposit within the Panorama JV by Sipa Resources has intersected high grade zinc mineralization including 20m @ 13.7% Zn and 0.2% Cu and 15m @ 11.6% Zn and 0.3% Cu. These intersections were recorded in the upper part of the deposit and will be further evaluated for open cut potential as additional feed for CBHs planned Panorama mill. Results from the remaining 11 holes at Kangaroo Caves are expected over the next two to three weeks from which it is anticipated that a revised resource estimate will be calculated and studies on the potential for an open cut completed.


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## dj_420 (24 July 2007)

motion said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> Now this is just a thought, maybe the movement in the SP is becuase of the results of the remaining 11 holes at Kangaroo Caves is due along with a possible revised resource estimate will be ann as well.




i would actually suggest the movement in sp is due to zinc stockpile movement on the LME, stocks still dropping lead reaching new heights.

i think market would place more value on current producers rather than potential deposits at the moment

i am jumping back on board this one for another zinc run IMO


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## Morgan (24 July 2007)

ozambersand said:


> One advantage of having the Newcastle Port Handling facility is that they hopefully gave their own ore priority during the bottleneck!




All those ships waiting off Newcastle are for the coal loader berths.
CBH product is loaded at a different terminal completely within the port- no bottlenecks there.


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## dj_420 (24 July 2007)

CBH looks to have broken that 0.65 resistance point. nice volume and support on screen.

zinc and lead stockpiles falling still. CBH will be making quite a bit extra on the lead thanks to this latest increase.

i picked up CBH this morning on the break of that resistance.


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## 123happy (24 July 2007)

It does look nice,

a breakout after months of consolidation. 

I may consider to swap from nickel to zinc and lead or iron ore


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## motion (24 July 2007)

dj_420 said:


> CBH looks to have broken that 0.65 resistance point. nice volume and support on screen.
> 
> zinc and lead stockpiles falling still. CBH will be making quite a bit extra on the lead thanks to this latest increase.
> 
> i picked up CBH this morning on the break of that resistance.




Hey dj_420, I see you have taken out some CBH, I was already in from last week but did not know the break out was going to happen... .. what did you make a tradding today ? Good support around 0.66 with big volume over 8 million turning over today, also not to many people getting out at closing..... will be interesting to see how the morning opens... 


Thanks


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## UMike (24 July 2007)

I'm all out of this one.

Took the profits. 

Theres probably still heaps of potential in this company but too many times I've seen itgo up to the low to mid 60s and not sold as much (if any) that I should of.

Will buy more @ below 60 again at any time.


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## champ2003 (24 July 2007)

UMike said:


> I'm all out of this one.
> 
> Took the profits.
> 
> ...




Wow that's amazing that you think that this will hit 60 cents again. It will be interesting to see.


----------



## dj_420 (24 July 2007)

motion said:


> Hey dj_420, I see you have taken out some CBH, I was already in from last week but did not know the break out was going to happen... .. what did you make a tradding today ? Good support around 0.66 with big volume over 8 million turning over today, also not to many people getting out at closing..... will be interesting to see how the morning opens...
> 
> 
> Thanks




technically it looks good, here is a medium term chart showing a few things. from other peoples charts looks like it has broken the medium term resistance around 64-65 cents. i would have actually liked it to close around 66 - 67 rather than come back a little to the resistance line.

the past four months has formed a large triangle formation. with the last week or so showing that the shareprice tightened before the break yesterday. the last few days have also shown a massive volume spike. the MACD looks like it has been consolidating and started to move away from yesterdays action. 

i would put upside resistance around the round figures of 70, 75 and 80 cents. when i was in this one last year these figures showed to be support and resistance. sometimes the round numbers are a bit of a psychological thing also, someone may be willing to pay 66, 67 and 68 cents but dont think it is worth 70 cents.

good to see that breaking that medium term resistance it gapped up. could be technical traders entering or also fundamental.

fundamentally CBH is great. they are producing decent amounts of lead and zinc right when the LME stockpiles are starting to get quite low. the increase in lead price could see a lot of people move to CBH as they also have a good amount of lead at endeavour.

tomorrow will be the test IMO, it closed on 65 cents so we want to see that price hold and actually show a good increase tomorrow. 

even if it comes back a bit im going to top up as i want a bit more exposure to what IMO will be another zinc run. compared to peers ZFX, JML are near or making highs while CBH is well off these highs.


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## motion (24 July 2007)

dj_420, great write thank you for sharing the information with us. I'm very interested in this stock  at the moment and think you are correct there is a ZINC run at the moment and looks like there is more to come. 

Here is some news I just read it's about Nickel falling and Zinc gaining, it's not going into alot of detail about Zinc, but very interesting to read and also see it's making headline news on http://www.kitcometals.com/. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=arxLMcA7ssAk&refer=commodities

thanks again..


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## hypnotic (24 July 2007)

hypnotic said:


> Zinc spot price should be rerated very soon, due to the fallen stock level in the LME. It is been at its lowest level since forever and this is reflected in the increase in spot price zinc today. Given time we should see the spot price of Zinc back in the US$1.80 - US$1.90/lb mark, which is an increase of roughly 10%.
> Also there is still plenty of demand for iron (steel) in China so there should be demand for zinc also.
> 
> It is possibly the increase in the zinc spot price driving up the zinc miners.
> ...




Zinc is on the move  up $0.0451 to US$1.658/lb at them moment
Rising sharply after today's little dip. No doubt we will see zinc miners go well. Keep a close eye on the LME stock level... there is still no sign on a turn around yet which put pressure on the spot price. Within two weeks i guess zinc spot will be back up to the $1.80 - 1.90 mark, especially as the LME stock level gets close to 50000 tonnes!

Cheers,


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## GREENS (25 July 2007)

CBH is looking strong both technically and fundamentally at the moment and was very pleased to see it break out of that large triangle ($0.64) that has been forming for months on almost 3x average volume. I have held this for a while and hope my patience will be rewarded very shortly. As I have stated previously the fundamentals of this company are very sound and by my calculations (shown in previous posts) should be trading closer to the $1 mark. I was happy to see the company hedge 25% of Ld production around the $1.10/lb mark a short time ago, But now seeing the Ld spot price surge above $1.50/lb doesn’t look so crash hot anymore, I suppose at least 75% is still exposed to these higher prices, while there Zn production still remains fully unhedged. 




hypnotic said:


> Keep a close eye on the LME stock level... there is still no sign on a turn around yet which put pressure on the spot price. Within two weeks i guess zinc spot will be back up to the $1.80 - 1.90 mark, especially as the LME stock level gets close to 50000 tonnes!




Hypnotic I wouldn’t count your chickens to early, it will still take some time for stocks to fall below the 50K mark as inventories have been falling at a much slower rate than previous years, and as we have seen many times before, large rises in inventories in relatively short periods of time have occurred in more recent times. And don’t forget Zn inventories have steadily trended down for the last 6months (draw downs of approx 32,000t), yet Zn has been largely trading in a range between $1.60-$1.70, thus the relationship between the price of Zn and inventory draw downs has been uncorrelated. Let’s hope this all changes very shortly but not get to carried away just yet. As I have stated before the longer the price fails to identify the fundamentals the greater the likelihood of a larger rise when the momentum gets going.




dj_420 said:


> even if it comes back a bit im going to top up as i want a bit more exposure to what IMO will be another zinc run. compared to peers ZFX, JML are near or making highs while CBH is well off these highs.




The only reason I can see why CBH trades at a discount to its rivals and is not trading at or near to a 52 week high like many other Zn miners is because of its higher risk as a single mine company (which has encountered problems in the past and is still a major risk for CBH investors), as soon as it becomes a multi mine company it will surely be re-rated and trade on a similar multiple to KZL (i.e. trade on a higher PE multiple of 14 instead of 10).


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## GREENS (25 July 2007)

Very very disappointed in the quarterly production figures of 10,400t Zn and only 4,600t Ld contained metal. The only upside to this is that development occurred in the mine during the past quarter to increase production capacity over the medium to longer term. But still production was back to around 60% of full capcity...



GREENS said:


> by my calculations (shown in previous posts) should be trading closer to the $1 mark.




This poor production for the quater pushes the companies valuation back towards the 80c mark.


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## dj_420 (25 July 2007)

GREENS said:


> Very very disappointed in the quarterly production figures of 10,400t Zn and only 4,600t Ld contained metal. The only upside to this is that development occurred in the mine during the past quarter to increase production capacity over the medium to longer term. But still production was back to around 60% of full capcity...
> 
> 
> 
> This poor production for the quater pushes the companies valuation back towards the 80c mark.




market seems to like it

production was up oviously from re-commissioning, so all i can say is that once next few mines come online in next year or so CBH will be looking really strong.


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## GREENS (25 July 2007)

dj_420 said:


> market seems to like it
> 
> production was up oviously from re-commissioning, so all i can say is that once next few mines come online in next year or so CBH will be looking really strong.




DJ I don’t think it was the production figures that got the market going (these are poor and there’s no question of that), but the reaction is more to do with the companies strong development and exploration work over the coming months

•Mineral Hill/Hera exploration and evaluation of re-opening mine 
•Fast tracked Devt of Rasp Mine 
•Final stages of SS approval 
•Recommencement of Drilling at Sorby Hills 
•Awaiting results of 4 drill holes in Panorama exploration (breakers and Jamesons) 
•Upgrade Reserve/Resource calculation of kangaroo Caves on its way
•Drilling commenced late in the previous quarter at Napier Range (JV with Teck Cominco)


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## lioness (25 July 2007)

I cannot believe anyone here has not analysed the little cousin involved in Kangaroo Caves - SRI - Sipa Resources.

It has a 40% interest in Kangaroo and is about to announce a resource upgrade to its previous estimate. DYOR. Much more upside than CBH.


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## Dutchy3 (25 July 2007)

After the day our market had this stock put in a great effort and on heavier volume ... this one will be a bit of a goer from here back up to the 80's


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## Pat (25 July 2007)

GREENS said:


> DJ I don’t think it was the production figures that got the market going (these are poor and there’s no question of that), but the reaction is more to do with the companies strong development and exploration work over the coming months
> 
> •Mineral Hill/Hera exploration and evaluation of re-opening mine
> •Fast tracked Devt of Rasp Mine
> ...



Not sure if it was the ann that got the market going. Just a catalyst for the uptrend to continue. It's been going strong last 3 days on some large volume and broken out. Either someone knows something and CBH pulls an ace out of it's sleeve, or the market sees a run in Zn, and CBH looks a bargin. I'm thinking the latter, and agree with hypnotic, given 3 months, $1.80/lb doesn't seem that far away.
Got in yesterday at 65 cents, fingers crossed


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## MegaV (27 July 2007)

Got 10000 units today at 0.595!
this share defanitely has long term potential. Going from a 1 mine to a 3 mine company will do wonders to the cash flow. Great long term hold!


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## UMike (27 July 2007)

champ2003 said:


> Wow that's amazing that you think that this will hit 60 cents again. It will be interesting to see.



Well.... Bought in again at 59c and 60c,

I know it is unusual circumstances so I'll be happy for CBH to never drop below 60c again


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## goldman (28 July 2007)

yeah good buying opportunity got rid of a lot of panic sellers and early profit takers. Zinc is still at a good price nothing really changed, even after friday nights wall street decline BHP biliton is back up nearly 1% at after market.


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## muddy (28 July 2007)

I pick up bits of this one now and again for the long term and everytime i do its at the top of a peak. Not really a prob but still kind of annoying


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## champ2003 (28 July 2007)

UMike said:


> Well.... Bought in again at 59c and 60c,
> 
> I know it is unusual circumstances so I'll be happy for CBH to never drop below 60c again




Yeah good call UMike. You did well with this one. Good on you I say!

Now lets hope it goes up from this point.

Cheers!

Champ


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## Pat (1 August 2007)

Holding up well considering the sell off.
UMike did you manage to get in? Or waiting?
I'm waiting for some indication this sell off is over before I consider buying.


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## MegaV (1 August 2007)

Despite the downturn, cbh is holding ground pretty well. 
Looking forward for calm waters ahead....this baby will fly


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## nomore4s (1 August 2007)

MegaV said:


> Despite the downturn, cbh is holding ground pretty well.
> Looking forward for calm waters ahead....this baby will fly




Ah, I'm not sure how you work out that CBH is holding ground pretty well, it lost around 7% today but the index lost just over 3% 
To me thats hardly holding up well


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## UMike (1 August 2007)

Pat said:


> Holding up well considering the sell off.
> UMike did you manage to get in? Or waiting?
> I'm waiting for some indication this sell off is over before I consider buying.



Yea... Got in at 59c and 60c On firday was considering selling at 64-64.5c (if it got there)
Picked up another lot at 57.5c today.

Happy with CBH. 

Unhappy with ABS and TLSCA atm


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## UMike (1 August 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Ah, I'm not sure how you work out that CBH is holding ground pretty well, it lost around 7% today but the index lost just over 3%
> To me thats hardly holding up well



True, Looks like alot of panic selling indiscriminately. 
Zinc up 2+%, lead up 6+% and the AUD down abit. I thought it'd do OK today.


Go figure.


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## countryboy (1 August 2007)

fair point 7% drop back into the range it has been for the last month or so 55-61 c. I bought at 59c so I am happy.


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

Just seeing if anyother traders have read this repot by Intersuisse? No new news but atleast CBH is getting more coverage. A mate of mine brought intersuisse reports to my attention, anyone else have anythoughts on these?


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## motion (3 August 2007)

Pat said:


> Just seeing if anyother traders have read this repot by Intersuisse? No new news but atleast CBH is getting more coverage. A mate of mine brought intersuisse reports to my attention, anyone else have anythoughts on these?




Hey Pat, 

Thanks for the heads up seems CBH is getting press everywhere at the moment fat prophets also had a strong buy on this the other day.... so more press the better... just a shame about the markets at the moment... thanks again


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## countryboy (3 August 2007)

CBH once we pass through this hic-up with USA credit should see a re-rating
Producing miners under $1.00 are always worth a second look. Fortesque at $30 plus and not producing is beyond belief. First dividend would want to be good!...CBH just wish they would have a second look at the Fe they have in the portfolio...would double the share price with a little attention.


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## Dutchy3 (4 August 2007)

Hi cb

Agreed ... here is a weekly .... if this one can close a week > 65 if will break weekly resistance. Other indicators are indicating a potential for a change in weekly direction .... indeed this stock is almost in class of its own at this moment in terms of the overall market ... so if it can hold up in these times, and the pressure comes off ...


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## muddy (4 August 2007)

The longer it hangs around this price the more i keep buying. Cant wait for it to hurry up and give me some sugar!


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## motion (6 August 2007)

Hey Guys, 

an ann out this morning.. so more good news for CBH...

ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE

6 August 2007

RASP MINE OPENING

The Rasp Mine at Broken Hill, named in honour of the discoverer of the greatest zinc-lead-silver orebody in the world, was opened by Professor Geoffrey Blainey AC on Saturday 4th August 2007.

At the opening Professor Blainey said:

“The Broken Hill orebody was pegged by Charles Rasp in September 1883. In 1885, Rasp started BHP. Later CRA (now Rio) grew out of the Broken Hill orebody. The wealth generated from Broken Hill changed Australia from an agrarian to an industrial economy.”

The contribution that was made by Rasp to Australia was first recognised by Professor Blainey in his 1968 book The Rise of Broken Hill.

CBH Resources Ltd purchased the CML7 leases at Broken Hill from Normandy Mining Ltd in 2001 and commenced evaluating the Western Mineralisation and remnant ore potential on CML7. 
The Western Mineralisation does not outcrop, has not been mined and is the down plunge equivalent of the Zinc Lodes in the Main Line of Lode at Broken Hill. CBH validated historical information and defined Mineral Resources in the Western Mineralisation with 54 surface diamond drill holes.
 A number of Zinc Lode and Lead Lode remnants along the Main Line of Lode were also drilled. The Western Mineralisation is open at depth and along strike and is separated at depth from the Centenary Mineralisation by 100 metres. The Rasp Mine will initially exploit the Western Mineralisation at a rate of 750,000 tpa for 65,000 tpa zinc concentrate (50% Zn), 35,000 tpa lead concentrate (70% Pb) and 800,000 oz pa Ag in lead concentrate. Mill feasibility and design will be complete in the September 07 quarter, long lead times such as ball mills and crusher have already been purchased and the statutory approval process is in progress. A 2.1 km long decline from the
base of the Kintore Pit is on schedule, on budget and now at 350 metres. The decline will provide access to an initial 10 Mt resource of 4.9% Zn, 3.5% Pb, 43 g/t Ag of the Western Mineralisation and later can be used to access the Centenary Mineralisation (of similar size and grade to the current
Western Mineralisation resource) and the Western Mineralisation along strike.

The Rasp Mine is the first new underground mine opened at Broken Hill for more than 60 years and will be the second major operation in CBH’s pipeline of base metal projects. The Company is also developing a large open cut copper-zinc mine at Panorama near Port Hedland in Western Australia,
schedule for commissioning in 2009.

For further information
BOB BESLEY 0438 866 549


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## hangseng (13 August 2007)

Worth having a look at the latest aquisition of CBH. See the report out 9/10/07, which with the market falls seems to have been missed completely. 

CBH has aquired the entire Shelley River leases (3) provided major high grade extensions to the Panorama project now underway. Over 300sq/km all adjoining leases and natural extensions of the known strike zones.


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## UMike (14 August 2007)

Something is in the wind though.

The SP is down to 52c from it's value  6 trading days ago at 62c.

Is this more than just market sentiment? Or a bargain waiting to be snapped up?


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## motion (14 August 2007)

UMike said:


> Something is in the wind though.
> 
> The SP is down to 52c from it's value  6 trading days ago at 62c.
> 
> Is this more than just market sentiment? Or a bargain waiting to be snapped up?




G'day UMike, 

Yep I think yesterday it was hit the worst. But I thinking along the same lines as yourself. I think today will tell us alittle more info on this.


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## goldman (22 August 2007)

Hey whats up all quite i bought some at 42 and 46 good value anyone got anything positive too say. heheeeheh


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## GREENS (22 August 2007)

goldman said:


> Hey whats up all quite i bought some at 42 and 46 good value anyone got anything positive too say. heheeeheh




Goldman not much to say, fundamentals still remain in place at its current price as they did around the 60c mark. Just obviously much better value on offer at these levels :, with what you would consider minimal downside with their annual report out very shorty. Zn is down of late which has its effects, but with the significant ramp up of production in the short-med term, means the outlook looks bright (i.e. as long as there are no major problems with their mines).

Was going to top up around the low 40c mark, but already have a considerable holding will average entry at $0.47 so thought I/d spread my risk and pick up some other cheapies. 

By the way does anyone know the date the annual is due out? it has to be very very soon.


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## chicken (23 August 2007)

The results will show that CBH is grossly undervalued.....next week report is out and it will tell us more how the company is progressing....Lead,Zinc and metal prices rising...after the fall...but from other board their..CBH s performance is up production is up...looking good here..DYOR


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## rico01 (23 August 2007)

Grossly undervalued you say!

I think not!

With $250 million in cash in the bank and 833 million shares on issue [that = 30 cents/share] I think i'll raise your grossly undervalued to a unbelievably grossly undervalued!


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## chicken (23 August 2007)

rico01 said:


> Grossly undervalued you say!
> 
> I think not!
> 
> With $250 million in cash in the bank and 833 million shares on issue [that = 30 cents/share]  I think i'll raise your grossly undervalued to a unbelievably grossly undervalued!




Fair enough as the value of all their mines and assets would put at least another..35cents to 50cents on the stock..maybe even more $$$ in assets here..I bought 105k shares of them and holding....will watch next week as results come out..holding for longterm....


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## Pat (23 August 2007)

chicken said:


> Fair enough as the value of all their mines and assets would put at least another..35cents to 50cents on the stock..maybe even more $$$ in assets here..I bought 105k shares of them and holding....will watch next week as results come out..holding for longterm....



Lets hope so Chicken, I jumped ship at 60 cents and waiting on the sidelines. I think the wait maybe over... We'll soon see.


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## chicken (29 August 2007)

What.....no one posted on the CBH results.....check it out makes great reading...good turn around ...good profit results and by looks of things the 2008 year will even be better...I bought at 60c...and today at 53cents...and if the dow will rise over night should see CBH higher than today...in my book looking good and better days ahead for CBH


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## rico01 (29 August 2007)

Yes chook
  Results look great 360% profit increase and willonly get better with the endeavour mine expecting improvement in 07/08, panorama project sit e works to commence, & rasp mine  still progressing.I can't believe there still where they are but they should move up now IMHO! I bought @ 60.5 sold at 60 at the intial correction and bought back in at 53cents last week on tuesday and wish i'd seen them sub 40c.


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## GREENS (29 August 2007)

chicken said:


> What.....no one posted on the CBH results.....check it out makes great reading...good turn around ...good profit results and by looks of things the 2008 year will even be better...I bought at 60c...and today at 53cents...and if the dow will rise over night should see CBH higher than today...in my book looking good and better days ahead for CBH




Chicken saw the result when it came out, but didn’t think there was much to post about, looks great at face value, but really when you get into the nitty gritty nothing to crash hot, quite average really, result were below my expectations. But before I comment anymore need to fully analyse everything in more detail. But still holding, the future looks bright in regards to production, exploration and devt, will just have to see how the next 6-12months pan out.


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## champ2003 (29 August 2007)

GREENS said:


> Chicken saw the result when it came out, but didn’t think there was much to post about, looks great at face value, but really when you get into the nitty gritty nothing to crash hot, quite average really, result were below my expectations. But before I comment anymore need to fully analyse everything in more detail. But still holding, the future looks bright in regards to production, exploration and devt, will just have to see how the next 6-12months pan out.




Average!!

How is a 360% turnaround average??

Wow greens i know that you are still holding but you're a hard person to please .


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## Miner (29 August 2007)

Disclaimer : I do hold CBH shares and looking for opportunity to buy more if it tumbles down tomorrow because the price is not going up even after record profit
The financial result is really impressive however I would consider when you have $1 profit in first year and next year $10 it is 1000 percent growth.
My humble question why CBH at least declaire half a cent dividend to bolster investor confidence. Chicken Feed and what about loyality to existing share holders instead of raising from outside a rights would have been nice.
Look at the options issued to seniro executives - Wow like free lunch and inundation of money. No one takes care of the investors.

Probably CBH directors can only answer on this game.

Regards


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## UMike (30 August 2007)

The most important aspect of this company is their forward looking projections.

This will impact on the sp more than any other criteria.


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## GREENS (30 August 2007)

champ2003 said:


> Average!!
> 
> How is a 360% turnaround average??
> 
> Wow greens i know that you are still holding but you're a hard person to please .




Champ am currently in the middle of exams, so haven’t got much time to spare, there were a few things I was un happy with, but have not yet had the time to check whether there is a good explanation for them, which there could quite possibly be, nevertheless was very impressive compared to last year and the future pipeline looks great, and hence why i still hold!


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## motion (17 September 2007)

I'm very interested to hears peoples thoughts, I'm very concerned CBH has lost around 22% since the correction and seems to be dropping everyday...


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## gfresh (17 September 2007)

It's disappointing, but a lot of other smaller stocks have dropped back a fair amount also.

While they are still making profits, and good possibility of higher profits next year, I still think it's worth holding onto. A turnaround should come (as P/E is well under 10 now, and eventually investors should see this value), but it may not be until the rest of the markets start to pick up pace again, which may not be until late October.

I believe some had unrealistic expectations for their profits this year, expecting a quick stag - which meant many sold out immediately after the profit results, and with nothing immediate right now, continued selling.

I think if it goes down too much further, it will make an excellent buying opportunity, the fundementals of the company still seem very good. So many 'up and coming' stories out there, but this one has been producing for a while with actual profits coming in now.


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## rico01 (17 September 2007)

I think CBH is having trouble holding ground because of the falling zinc price. We have just recently seen a new one year low.


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## motion (17 September 2007)

Thanks for your comments guys, both with some excellent points... I think CBH has alot to offer and will have to see what happens over the coming months..


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## Miner (18 September 2007)

Folks
One irony of stock market situation we only see the directors and their profiles. We often do not see the pillars of their success / failures - the people managing operations, maintenance and engineering / projects.

Without upsetting any one  or showing disrespect I wonder what capability level CBH has on its operating/maintenance heads to run a show and the project managers to deliver. We never assess them . 

I was less than impressed on their capabilities when met them in some business unrelated to stocks. But I am Joe Blogg Miner not a business manager and will be proved wrong when CBH gets over 0.55 cents in a week's time notwithstanding on a falling DJ in USA tonight.

Further some of the brokers recommended CBH. They should have the guts to say SELL CBH. Only Bell Potter mentioned Neutral.

The beauty with brokers is when you sell they earn, when you buy they earn.


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## motion (20 September 2007)

WOW ann out ! A nice resource upgrade and also some big volume now going through.... very happy with the ann good news all around ! Some excellent grades here..

"The Company advises that. assays for 3 of the recent 6 in-fill holes at Hera have now been received and
include 5.9m @ 18.8g/t Au, 23.6% Zn,18.2% Pb,1.8% Cu and 77g/t Ag (CNYDD017). Although a high
grade core was indicated by earlier drilling, these values are likely to significantly upgrade Hera."

also this

The Company also advises that it has now received all requisite government approvals for a planned
exploration decline at Hera.


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## countryboy (20 September 2007)

miner- great post..thats why i like talking to miners..they will tell you real quick how production is going and if their are efficiencies being made. I had a mate working in i think renison Gold mine up in the NTthey kept hitting water. Renison sold the mine recently...pity the suckers who bought it

I like the desision to send Visco Sulich into Cobar...i bought more share when i found out he was going there!


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## porkpie324 (20 September 2007)

With the exemption of JBM the zinc miners hav'nt joined the recovery party yet, KZL had some increase yesterday & today though. porkpie


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## michael_selway (20 September 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> With the exemption of JBM the zinc miners hav'nt joined the recovery party yet, KZL had some increase yesterday & today though. porkpie




No 2010 forecasts atm

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 4.7 8.8 5.8 -- 
DPS 0.0 3.0 5.5 -- *

thx

MS


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## fgzq88 (25 September 2007)

rico01 said:


> Grossly undervalued you say!
> 
> I think not!
> 
> With $250 million in cash in the bank and 833 million shares on issue [that = 30 cents/share] I think i'll raise your grossly undervalued to a unbelievably grossly undervalued!




Convertible Bond issue (CBHGA) raised $200 million unsecured at a fixed interest of 7.25% p.a for the Panorama Project.

That's where the cash come from~


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## dubiousinfo (25 September 2007)

Michael

Less than a year ago, Comsec had the following forecast for CBH which was proved to be wildly inaccurate, as was the case for most forecasts by Comsec for miners.



> *CBH* - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> EPS -2.8 10.7 13.5 24.0
> DPS 0.0 0.5 3.0 10.0
> ...





Why would you think this latest forcast from Comsec would be any more accurate than the previous?



michael_selway said:


> No 2010 forecasts atm
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




There are many posters on ASF that get a lot closer to the mark than Comsec forecasts when it comers to miners.

I am with Rederob and would much prefer to read your personal thoughts, rather than the repeated Comsec forecasts that are trotted out.


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## fgzq88 (1 October 2007)

COMPLETION OF STRELLEY RIVER PROJECT SALE TO CBH RESOURCES LIMITED

Is there any detail about this project? 

regards


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## rico01 (4 October 2007)

They've  more copper and gold at mineral hill. Hopefully it might be enough to get this share price moving again upwards at least


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## rico01 (4 October 2007)

Here is a little of what the announcement was about......................................


        Sydney - Thursday - October 4: (RWE Aust Business News) - CBH
Resources (ASX:CBH) has intersected strong mineralisation within the
Southern Ore Zone and the West Iodide lode at the Mineral Hill, located
near Condobolin in central NSW.
        High grade copper-gold mineralisation, 5.0m at 3.5g/t gold and
3.4 per cent copper has been intersected 300m along strike from the
Southern Ore Zone, one of series of steeply west dipping ore zones mined
by Triako for copper-gold from 1989 until 2005.
        At the time of closure of the Mineral Hill mine, the total
resource inventory at the SOZ was quoted at 182,600t at 7.4g/t gold,
1.3pc copper with good potential for expansion.
        Recent drilling by CBH has tested the northern extension of the
SOZ system between the old SOZ underground workings and those of the
Jacks Hut workings and appears to have intersected a new copper-gold lens
approximately 300m north of the SOZ workings, 380m from the surface and
below the main underground cross cut that provides access to the area.
        The intersection is very encouraging and indicates the strong
likelihood for the discovery of new ore blocks to support the proposed
reactivation of the Mineral Hill operation. 
        Follow-up surface drilling is planned.
        Drilling has also progressed at West Iodide, immediately to the
south of the Jacks Hut workings, recording good visual lead-zinc
mineralisation within an area identified as a strong base metal target.
         CBH is testing this mineralisation as a possible additional ore
source for mine development.
        CBH shares were down 0.5 to 50.5c.
        ENDS
!END


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## chicken (8 October 2007)

Look at their latest news...Hera...80gpt Au.....fantastic...read it todays news. The SP is a joke for a producer who is finding new orebodies...at present price cheap


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## doogie_goes_off (8 October 2007)

Yep chicken they are cheap, and why wouldn't they be? They have managed to accumulate $200M worth of debt and it remains to be seen if they can produce enough sales to service this debt and wipe it out, I'd make them a long term hold, I don't see a rocketing price on this one.


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## TheAbyss (8 October 2007)

Can they use Gold to pay off that debt? Excerpt from todays announcement.

The Company advises that screen fire assay results have now been received for the 
previously announced intersection in hole CNYDD017 resulting in a substantial *increase 
in gold grade to 16.7m @ 80.6gpt Au (uncut), including an outstanding interval of 5.9m 
@ 144.0gpt Au (uncut), 1.8% Cu, 18.2% Pb, 23.9% Zn and 77gpt Ag.* This intersection is 
located approximately 30m below the original discovery hole for Hera, PNDD002 (8.6m 
@ 38.6gpt Au (uncut), 1.7% Cu, 10.5% Pb, 7.0% Zn and 68gpt Ag), and confirms the 
presence of a very high grade gold and base metal shoot in the central section of the 
deposit. 

In addition, assay results have also been returned for a further two holes with good gold 
values recorded in both. CNYDD016A recorded 1.5m @ 20.7gpt Au*, 6.5% Pb, 11.4% Zn 
and 45gpt Ag, whilst CNYDD014 intersected 13.0m @ 3.6gpt Au*, 2.5% Pb, 3.7% Zn, 
including 3.8m @ 8.7gpt Au*, 4.0% Pb, 5.5% Zn and 14gpt Ag (Figure 1).


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## chicken (8 October 2007)

TheAbyss said:


> Can they use Gold to pay off that debt? Excerpt from todays announcement.
> 
> The Company advises that screen fire assay results have now been received for the
> previously announced intersection in hole CNYDD017 resulting in a substantial *increase
> ...




Great news for CBH.....and also they published today their figures....by looks of things reading their report...CBH are going places....and to me it looks as if this share will become bluechip....new mine next year...whilst this boom is happening....its all go there...and the $200million...has not been spent yet....their new mines and projects are all looking first class....read their financial report...looking good...one to watch...and their latest drill result...looking good...wish SBM would find a 80gpt AU find....I like CBHs story..one in the making..DYOR


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## countryboy (8 October 2007)

200 mill$ debt ? read the AFS a wee more carefully

add the Iron Ore holdings and you will see why i think CBH is undervalued...maybe they should do a rock chip sample and make an announcement price should triple like IRM today.

Constance Range
The Constance Range iron ore project is located in the Lawn Hill district of north-west Queensland, 45 km west of Zinifex’s Century mine, and 220 km northwest of Mt Isa. The company is earning a 50% interest in the property by completing a bankable feasibility study.
The project area was extensively explored by BHP between 1956 and 1963, with work completed including over 200 drill holes, sinking of two exploration shafts, underground mining trials and bulk sample extraction for
beneficiation test work. Significant sedimentary hematite mineralisation was identified with the iron ore horizons ranging from 2 to 8 metres in thickness as gently dipping beds and present over a strike length of more than 30 kilometres within the project exploration licence. BHP identified a mineralised body of 245 Mt grading 51.3% Fe and 9.4% silica (SiO2) for one of three deposits outlined. Confirmation drilling and initial metallurgical test work were underway at the end of the year.


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## goldman (9 October 2007)

New upgrade from huntley yesterday 74 cents a share  valuation rises 23% to 74c a share. CBH benefits strongly from higher near term lead forecasts coupled with more favourable long term lead and zinc assumptions.CBH owns the Endeavor zinc/lead mine near Cobar in NSW with annual capacity of 65kt of zinc and 35kt of lead in concentrates. Reserves support a 10 years plus. Life has extended through exploration and the acquisition of Hera. The Panorama opencut in WA is set to start early 2009 with 16ktpa of copper and 40ktpa of zinc for at least seven years. Output of 30ktpa of zinc and 20ktpa of lead is expected from the Rasp mine in Broken Hill from mid 2008. Management aims to mould CBH into a mid tier miner via acquisitions and organic growth. The balance sheet is sound with $70m cash. Suitable for risk tolerant investors seeking growth but understanding commodity price volatility.


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## chicken (10 October 2007)

Go to www.kitcometals.com......the word is lead will rise even further in price risen another 3.5% overnight...and more to come...in their report..their cash position is $234million....so even if they owe $200million...the company looks in a very stable financial position now and looks as if they are doing all the right moves to grow into a much larger concern...any one interested should take the time and read their latest report...which was published 2 days ago...I bought 100k shares and happy to hold...DYOR


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## chicken (10 October 2007)

All I say, read CBHs report as the more I read what was written the more  I like my investment in CBH...grossly undervalued...read it if you are investing in resources...


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## Sean K (11 October 2007)

chicken said:


> All I say, read CBHs report as the more I read what was written the more  I like my investment in CBH...grossly undervalued...read it if you are investing in resources...



Hi Chicken. Grossly undervalued? Perhaps you could provide just a smidgen of analysis to back it up instead of 'read the report'.


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## chicken (11 October 2007)

kennas said:


> Hi Chicken. Grossly undervalued? Perhaps you could provide just a smidgen of analysis to back it up instead of 'read the report'.



Just read the report of what is in the pipeline and where the company is heading and their cash position..all are positive...assets in todays price are in the $16billion region....give a couple or take a couple billions...and a market cap of $450million speaks for itself...read the report and do some figuring....its all there for everyone to work out...


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## Stan 101 (15 October 2007)

I bit of good news today regarding the backfill of Endeavour mine. Stong finish to today's trading adding a cent right at closing. Over 10 million shares traded.
It will be interesting to see if the stock continues to rally up to next week's quarterly report on this release.

I had a sell at 56 cents on CBH last week and removed it friday, willing to give it one more chance. I've been very patient with this share and although have bought and sold it many times since it was in the 30 cent bracket and been happy with the results, but a dividend or some long term support over the 60c mark would be reassuring to hold this for the longer term..


Opinions?



Cheers,


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## michael_selway (15 October 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> I bit of good news today regarding the backfill of Endeavour mine. Stong finish to today's trading adding a cent right at closing. Over 10 million shares traded.
> It will be interesting to see if the stock continues to rally up to next week's quarterly report on this release.
> 
> I had a sell at 56 cents on CBH last week and removed it friday, willing to give it one more chance. I've been very patient with this share and although have bought and sold it many times since it was in the 30 cent bracket and been happy with the results, but a dividend or some long term support over the 60c mark would be reassuring to hold this for the longer term..
> ...




Its not bad i guess, zinc and lead will continue to do well

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 4.7 8.9 5.1 4.8 
DPS 0.0 3.0 5.5 0.5 *

thx

MS


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## GREENS (16 October 2007)

I was reading in the Fin Review yesterday that perilya (PEM) is looking to make a moderate sized acquisition in the next 6-12 months. I threw out the article yesterday so can not exactly quote it now. If anyone else has the article would they mind posting up a quote? In short, they mentioned a few companies including JML, CUO and CBH. 

CBH is the most obvious candidate given the synergies an acquisition could create; they both have significant operations, development and exploration in West NSW, such as Broken Hill and the Cobar Basin. Furthermore CBH has long life mines in this Western NSW area, a massive low cost/high grade Cu-Zn open pit in WA scheduled to come on line in 2009 and plenty of projects around Australia currently under evaluation. 

Nevertheless, you would think that CBH would have to be up the top of their shopping list. The only problem that I can see that would stop PEM choosing CBH over other candidates is the fact that Toho Zinc has a 25% stake in the company and could potentially block or make it difficult to acquire the company.


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## countryboy (25 October 2007)

september report:
A record after tax profit for the financial year ended 30 June 2007 of $38.7 million was announced.

This represents a 356% increase in net profit after tax compared to the previous financial year.

Profit before tax for the same period was $56.2 million on operating revenues of $269.5 million. No tax was provided for although a tax expense of $17.6 million was recorded. At 30 September 2007 cash and short term deposits totalled $219.4 million (30 June 2007 $238 million).
Capital investment during the quarter totalled $33.1 million with accelerated mine development and paste fill at Endeavor, development at Panorama and Rasp Mine projects accelerating and evaluation of new projects at Hera, Mineral Hill and Sorby Hills.

50c miner which can finance its own exploration and for the most part development. It may happen tomorrow or next year but it will push way past what its current SP is

TRY getting that return at a bank


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## countryboy (26 October 2007)

rasp decline is moving very well...and i should know ! CBH is still joined at the hip with Zinc and the Endeavour mine and its past history. Zinc prices have pushed Endeavour way past the marginal call and with the increase in lead CBH is way in front as the Sept ann calls it.
only a matter of time


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## Rimtalay (27 October 2007)

*CBH Resources - An Exceptional Growth Profile*
26/10/2007 By: Ted Leschke

Investors will be hard pressed to find an established Australian metals producer with a growth profile as strong as that of CBH Resources (CBH). CBH is a minerals exploration, development and production company, primarily interested in base metals projects in western New South Wales and Western Australia .

CBH is set to grow from a one operating mine to a three operating mine company within 3 years. CBH’s currently operating zinc-lead mine, Endeavor, is now back to design capacity, the Rasp in Broken Hill is to begin zinc-lead production early 2009 and the Panorama mine is to begin zinc-copper production in early 2010. 


This will see metal output grow 260% from 64kt in FY07 to 230ktpa in zinc equivalent terms. 

With $219 million in cash at 30 September, CBH is well placed to fully fund the development of Rasp and Panorama.

CBH also has a number of “hidden” assets including a ship loading facility in Newcastle , the dormant Mineral Hill mine & plant as well as an earn-in interest in an iron ore project in north Queensland .

*Endeavor – Zinc & Lead Producer*
Endeavor is an established underground zinc/lead/silver mining operation in central New South Wales , 46 kilometres north of Cobar and 700 kilometres east of Sydney . 

Operations commenced in 1983 and comprise an underground mine accessed by both decline and haulage shaft, and serviced by a concentrator, drying, storage and rail facilities. CBH purchased the Endeavour mine for $10m and paid $6.6m for the Newcastle Port ship loader in September 2003.

Mining operations were seriously set back after a large stope failure in October 2005. Whilst mining operations have now recovered, metal output is yet to completely recover to the same as previous levels due to lower grades of ore mined at depth. Despite this, operation economics have improved significantly with a significant rise in zinc and lead prices over the last few years.

Given that mining at Endeavor now has reach depths of 900m CBH has undertaken a number on initiatives that will enable mine rates of 1Mtpa of ore be maintained as well as keeping operating costs and metal recoveries in check.

*Rasp Mine - Zinc & Lead Development*
CBH also holds mining title (CML 7) over the central 3.8 kilometres of the Broken Hill lode system containing substantial tonnages of unmined zinc, lead and silver mineralisation. The Western Mineralisation, a zinc rich lode horizon, has been the focus of a detailed evaluation programme for a new mine development.

This new mine, the Rasp Mine, will have the benefits of significant existing infrastructure. A feasibility study has been completed and now requires board approval. 

Final project approvals are also due within 6 months and commencement of plant construction is estimated to occur by May 2008. Commissioning is scheduled for late 2008 with first production early in 2009.

See Part 2


----------



## Rimtalay (27 October 2007)

Part 2

*Panorama - Zinc & Copper Development*
The Panorama Project is located 160km by road from Port Headland, 100 kilometres of which is a sealed highway. A concentrate loading facility is present at Port Headland. 

The project is based on developing the Sulphur Springs copper-zinc ore body. Additional resources have been identified along strike from Sulphur Springs and these are being evaluated as additions. In total there are six mineralised copper-zinc deposits along a 20km strike length with exploration in progress targeting new resources for the Panorama Project.

A bankable feasibility study has been completed and environmental approvals are being finalised for a 1.5mt pa open-cut mine and ore processing plant to produce 20ktpa of copper and 50ktpa of zinc. Project capex is estimated at $213 million. Site construction is scheduled to commence in the June quarter 2008 and commissioning of the project is scheduled for the second half of 2009.

Open pit reserves stand at 10mt 1.5% Cu, 3.7% Zn and17g/t Ag. There are additional resources below the open cut and along strike that will add to the project life. CBH is currently earning a 60% interest in the Kangaroo Caves deposit (6.3mt @ 3.3% Zn & 0.5% Cu) through the expenditure of $4m on exploration of which $1.25 milliion is outstanding.



*Mineral Hill – Copper & Zinc Evaluation*
The Mineral Hill mine, acquired through the takeover of Triako, was placed on care and maintenance in September 2005. Between 1995 and 2005 the mine produced 369koz gold and 21kt of copper in concentrates.

The mill has the capacity to treat 200ktpa. CBH is currently investigating the options to bring this operation back into production treating underground developed copper reserves with possible extensions to zinc and lead resources and mineralisation. An upgraded Mineral Hill operation would provide the processing capability to treat ore from the Hera Deposit located 100km to the north.

This resource currently contains 2.2mt @ 3.4g/t gold, 4.2% zinc and 0.2% copper and 18g/t silver. Recent drilling has resulted in a number of ore grade intercepts which may enhance resources.

*Napier Range & Sorby Hills – Zinc & Lead Exploration*
CBH is managing a joint venture with Teck Cominco WA to explore and develop zinc-lead-silver deposits in the Napier Ranges in northern Western Australia . The project is located 150 km east of Derby within the Lennard Shelf zinc-lead district, a west-north-west trending belt of shallow marine sediments hosting Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) deposits containing pre-mined resources of >40Mt @ +10% Zn equivalent. 

The Sorby Hills project was also acquired through the takeover of Triako by CBH. CBH now has a 100% interest in this undeveloped lead-zinc deposit. 

The project has published resources (non-JORC compliant) of approximately 10Mt @ 6.4% lead, 0.9% zinc and 66g/t silver. The bulk of the resource occurs within thirteen discrete pods of which the largest is estimated to be 2.8Mt @ 6.6% lead, 0.6% zinc and 119 g/t silver.

*Constance Range – Iron Ore Exploration*
CBH is earning a 50% interest in Constance Range iron ore project by completing a BFS. The project is located in the far north west of Queensland , adjacent to the Northern Territory border and 45km west of the Century mine.

More than fifty years ago the iron ore deposits were identified and drilled by BHP which estimated a non JORC compliant resource of approximately 250Mt @ 52% Fe.

CBH has almost completed a diamond drilling programme to obtain mineralised samples for metallurgical test work (grinding and WHIMS) and to allow the generation of a JORC compliant resource. There is no reason to expect that the resource will be much different to BHP's figures given that BHP drilled over 200 holes in the area and sunk two exploration shafts.

Given the low Fe grade this project will require a concentrator and a transportation solution will be have to be worked out. This asset would be prime candidate for a spin-off. This project could be worth around $150 million undeveloped or $75 miliion (7cps) for CBH's share - not a big kicker, but in this market iron ore developments are attracting attention.


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## Miner (28 October 2007)

Looks like some one sitting in CBH has written this particular post. Lot of narration with no target where the 53 cents share will go next quarter or year.

Regards


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## UMike (28 October 2007)

Miner said:


> Looks like some one sitting in CBH has written this particular post. Lot of narration with no target where the 53 cents share will go next quarter or year.
> 
> Regards



Reads more like a cut and paste of a 3rd quarter report.

Not that I'm complaining.

I hold a large portion of my portfolio in CBH and have expected it to bounce higher than it recently has.

Will hold as I believe it is serverly undervalued. Westpac still rates it's intrinsic value at 74c. If it made up half the difference I'll be happy


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## Rimtalay (29 October 2007)

Hi Miner and Umike,
For those that dont know Ted Leschke .
Ted is the Research Manager (Resources ) for Shaw Stockbroking .BSc Applied Geology ,Grad Dip Economics. 
Ted specialises in the resource sector and is a highly regarded equities analyst .Ted has over a decades experience working both in broking and funds management with coverage of both Australian and international resource companies alike .Prior to that Ted worked as a geologist at a number of base metal and coal operations as well as in mineral exploration .
Its great to see someone with Teds experience and qualifications picking up on CBH's potential .


This is what has been told on HC


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## Stan 101 (5 November 2007)

I'm very impressed with CBH holding up it's share price in the last day and a half of trading. Last week it closed on highs.

Alsthough I did start selling down CBH last week and snatched 59 cents late last week, I still do have a fair holding in this share.

I did actually think the share would retrace and I'd have an opportunity to buy back in at low 50's but I'm very happy it it continues to rise..


Cheers,


----------



## UMike (5 November 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> I'm very impressed with CBH holding up it's share price in the last day and a half of trading. Last week it closed on highs.
> 
> Alsthough I did start selling down CBH last week and snatched 59 cents late last week, I still do have a fair holding in this share.
> 
> ...



I have the same strategy as yourself with CBH.

Sold about a 1/4 last week at 59c


Thought I'd missed the boat getting them at 57c but just got 'em now.

Hopefully it is onwards from now on


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## michael_selway (5 November 2007)

UMike said:


> I have the same strategy as yourself with CBH.
> 
> Sold about a 1/4 last week at 59c
> 
> ...




Its holding well

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 4.7 8.6 6.7 4.3 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 *

thx

MS


----------



## Stan 101 (5 November 2007)

Umike, yes I'll be looking to buy in a little lower than 57cents... 
I've traded this share so many times my accountant loses track, never mind me .
I'm still in the long haul for this share but I do get frustrated at times.. I've held for 6 months and got nothing out of it, so back into trading mode for me...


all the best with it..


----------



## UMike (15 November 2007)

Been in and out a few times now.

Sold about a quarter of my holdings at 59c in the jump to 61.5c

Any reason for the huge leap so quick in the middle of the trading day?


----------



## alankew (16 November 2007)

Rumours going around that CBH is being lined up for a takeover perhaps or maybe just being dragged up in the BHP/RIO/ZFX thing.Even with the price of Zinc going down atm this is going against the trend.Looks to have broken out yesterday and can see it going up to next resistance of around 68.5 then 71


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## gfresh (17 November 2007)

Here is a recent chart, showing clear trend channel since mid-September or so. 

Next major intersection would be recent high of 67.5c set pre-correction (top orange). This looks to be reached mid-December. Possible may be reached as early as 2 weeks time with takeover rumours, and strong last 2 days last week. 

Middle orange line shows average price from about April-August this year of 58c.

MACD also shows positive crossover of signal above 0 line, bullish signal.


----------



## michael_selway (17 November 2007)

alankew said:


> Rumours going around that CBH is being lined up for a takeover perhaps or maybe just being dragged up in the BHP/RIO/ZFX thing.Even with the price of Zinc going down atm this is going against the trend.Looks to have broken out yesterday and can see it going up to next resistance of around 68.5 then 71




Wow who is rumoured to takeover CBH?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 4.7 8.6 6.7 4.3 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 *



> Date: 13/11/2007
> Author: Michael Vaughan
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19
> The board of Australian miner, CBH Resources, is divided by the actions of itsJapanese shareholder. Toho Zinc is the major investor with a 25.8 per centstake, and has two representatives on the board. Toho tried to gain control ofthe board at a meeting on 9 November 2007. A resolution to remove chair JimWall, who had the casting vote, failed. Two more people were appointed to theboard. CBH will appoint a corporate adviser


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## sleeper88 (17 November 2007)

Toho readies for CBH takeover

Toho Zinc Company looks poised to take over CBH Resources Limited following a meeting of directors on Friday. Resolutions voted on by the board include that a corporate advisor should be engaged by the company to examine issues relating to control and ownership. 
Chairman, Jim Wall said that recent events to remove him as chairman holding a casting vote amount to an attempt by directors alighted with Toho to control the CBH board. 

"This is not in the best interests of all shareholders, particularly at a time when Toho is seeking access to concentrates from CBH's Panorama and Broken Hill Projects," Mr Wall said. 

"It is a fundamental principle of corporate governance that the company be managed for the benefit of all shareholders, and the majority of directors have taken proper steps to ensure this principle is upheld." 

Toho currently has a 25.8% shareholding in CBH. 

The company also determined that Robert Willcocks should no longer be considered an independent director of CBH, in light of his association with Toho. 

In an announcement to the ASX, CBH indicated that the view has been expressed to the directors associated with Toho that, if Toho wishes to seek control of the CBH board, then it should bid for the shares in the company held by all other shareholders. 

A resolution to remove Mr Wall from the position of chairman was not approved. 

The company said Mr Wall will cease his executive role at CBH February 4, 2008 but will remain as chairman, as foreshadowed at the AGM held on November 5 2007. 

This is part of an ongoing succession process which will see both Mr Wall and Managing Director, Bob Besley hand over executive responsibilities to a new team led by recently appointed CEO, Stephen Dennis. 

The board has now also formed a nominations committee, which is tasked to identify and recommend candidates for appointment as independent directors. 

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=321944


----------



## porkpie324 (17 November 2007)

Yes I read the ninemsm article too, I hope this not going to be another Consmin farce with directors having a boot in each camp, porkpie


----------



## UMike (18 November 2007)

I sold out of this taking the profits that I had already made.

Will be happy to buy back in if it drops a bit Monday.


----------



## michael_selway (19 November 2007)

UMike said:


> I sold out of this taking the profits that I had already made.
> 
> Will be happy to buy back in if it drops a bit Monday.




Yeahtiem to sell one woudl think

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 4.7 8.6 6.7 4.3 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 *

thx

MS




> Date: 13/11/2007
> Author: Michael Vaughan
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19
> The board of Australian miner, CBH Resources, is divided by the actions of itsJapanese shareholder. Toho Zinc is the major investor with a 25.8 per centstake, and has two representatives on the board. Toho tried to gain control ofthe board at a meeting on 9 November 2007. A resolution to remove chair JimWall, who had the casting vote, failed. Two more people were appointed to theboard. CBH will appoint a corporate adviser


----------



## UMike (19 November 2007)

Zinc and Lead are being knocked down again tonight.

I can't see how CBH and/or other Zincers can maintain upward trend in thier SP as the current metal prices slide.


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## Stan 101 (19 November 2007)

Umike, I know what you mean abot reversing the trend, but CBH has been doing it for a few weeks now. This is getting close to it's best run in some time. 

Michael S, I know what you mean about the management, but again that is now old news and the price keeps rising and more importantly it is holding with good quantity in trade.

It's going to be tricky to decide on this one..


----------



## nomore4s (19 November 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> Umike, I know what you mean abot reversing the trend, but CBH has been doing it for a few weeks now. This is getting close to it's best run in some time.
> 
> Michael S, I know what you mean about the management, but again that is now old news and the price keeps rising and more importantly it is holding with good quantity in trade.
> 
> It's going to be tricky to decide on this one..




From a pure T/A view, this is looking very strong atm. Looks to be in a good uptrend over the last 2 or 3 months breaking a couple of resistance points. Most of the reactions have held the 50% retracement lines (blue for minor rallies and red for the major rallies marked 1,2,3) which is a sign of the strength of the current trend.
Although I'm now expecting a bit of a pullback in the next few days with the sp breaking through the upper trendline (yellow trend channel), how it reacts on the next pullback will provide a few more clues on the chances of an on going trend. If it does pullback and holds the 58c-60c (the blue and red 50% retracements) area on reducing volume it will be a good sign.
The pink trend channel are reverse trendlines - maybe not exactly correct in use but.... - which *maybe *showing an increase in the speed of the trend, how the sp reacts off the bottom line if it does fall back that far could be telling, as this should coincide with the 58c-60c area.

My view for discussion only, and I tend to be wrong alot :
I hold, good luck to all.


----------



## UMike (20 November 2007)

nomore4s said:


> From a pure T/A view, this is looking very strong atm. Looks to be in a good uptrend over the last 2 or 3 months breaking a couple of resistance points. Most of the reactions have held the 50% retracement lines (blue for minor rallies and red for the major rallies marked 1,2,3) which is a sign of the strength of the current trend.
> Although I'm now expecting a bit of a pullback in the next few days with the sp breaking through the upper trendline (yellow trend channel), how it reacts on the next pullback will provide a few more clues on the chances of an on going trend. If it does pullback and holds the 58c-60c (the blue and red 50% retracements) area on reducing volume it will be a good sign.
> The pink trend channel are reverse trendlines - maybe not exactly correct in use but.... - which *maybe *showing an increase in the speed of the trend, how the sp reacts off the bottom line if it does fall back that far could be telling, as this should coincide with the 58c-60c area.
> 
> ...




It's hard to work with trends when the Price of Lead and Zinc fall 8% Overnight 

I hope the commodity trend goes back to the CBH one.

Hope to re-enter CBH at around 57.5c


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## nomore4s (2 December 2007)

The current trend continues to look strong for CBH from a T/A perspective.

Price dropped through the bottom of the revese trendlines but reversed back through it very quickly. But it has also held the normal trendlines from the start of the current uptrend from the 16.08.07, and also hasn't come anywhere near the 50% retracement of the 2nd major rally (pink).

The last two bars show some signs of supply around the 61c level after filling the gap left from the gap down on the 22.08.07.
I think the 65c level will be an important level for CBH to get through and hold, especially on the weekly chart.


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## countryboy (9 December 2007)

From Shaws Brokers report: available on CBH website:

We currently value CBH at $1.02 a share and have a target price of
$1.00ps which is approximately a 78% premium to current share
price levels.
Until recently CBH has traded in line with zinc and lead price
movements, however we anticipate a share price re-rating as the
development of the Rasp and Panorama projects advance and
become more appreciated by the broader market.
There is scope for CBH’s Newcastle port facility to be used for coal
loading in the future given that it is currently only 10% utilised.


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## countryboy (11 December 2007)

*Poised for Growth Recognition*
We believe the market is poised to recognise CBH’s exceptional
growth profile. Metal output is expected to grow some 290% from
64kt in FY07 to 250ktpa in zinc equivalent terms over a 4 year period.
Growth will be driven by two new projects that being the Rasp zinc &
lead and Panorama zinc & copper projects in addition to production
improvements from the Endeavor zinc & lead mine. We recommend
CBH as Buy for investors seeking base metals exposure and a strong
growth profile.

Shaw Report

1 mine up and running and three about to start for 60c share price. ADY is producing and 50c what else is out there at this value?


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## Miner (11 December 2007)

Interesting report from Shaw in Dec 07.
Last broker report was in Dec 06 from Bell Potter and Holst almost on the same day.
It was not clear if CBH commissioned the broker to do the research.
Any way a copy is attached.

Regards
View attachment 061207 cbh.pdf


----------



## Real1ty (12 December 2007)

Miner said:


> Interesting report from Shaw in Dec 07.
> Last broker report was in Dec 06 from Bell Potter and Holst almost on the same day.
> *It was not clear if CBH commissioned the broker to do the research.*
> Any way a copy is attached.
> ...




The information is provided on the last page



> ANALYST CERTIFICATION
> The Research Analyst who prepared this report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect the
> analyst's personal views about the Company and its financial products.
> The Research Analyst has not been, is not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation for expressing the specific
> ...




I had this stock recommended to me, by a friend, a couple of weeks ago and have been having a good look at it.

It's only downside could be the Zinc and Lead prices for 08 and onwards and they are projected to be lower.

Of course anaylists get the prices wrong ALL the time and if they were wrong and those metals prices just stayed at todays levels, this stock will do very, very well.

Also the Chinese are considering adding export tax to Zinc and Lead from next year, so at least in the short term this should be of benefit also.

I will be looking to buy in around .55-.58 if i can get in around that price.


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## brerwallabi (12 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> I will be looking to buy in around .55-.58 if i can get in around that price.




You must be thinking we are going to have a couple of poor days generally ahead.
I don't think we will see 55cents again unless our market drops a couple of hundred points at least.
So what will you do if it doesn't fall, buy at market or move on and find something else.
If you really believe the recommendation from your friend and believe "this stock will do very, very well'' and has an upside whats a few cents against missing the trade.

What happens tomorrow if its 62cents?


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## UMike (13 December 2007)

brerwallabi said:


> You must be thinking we are going to have a couple of poor days generally ahead.
> I don't think we will see 55cents again unless our market drops a couple of hundred points at least.
> So what will you do if it doesn't fall, buy at market or move on and find something else.
> If you really believe the recommendation from your friend and believe "this stock will do very, very well'' and has an upside whats a few cents against missing the trade.
> ...



Agreed.

I've been waiting with a bid at 57c. In fact I'm first in line. 

Luckily I got some PEM @ $2.85 which has done very well.

CBH is where I'd like to be  short and long term though.


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## Real1ty (13 December 2007)

brerwallabi said:


> You must be thinking we are going to have a couple of poor days generally ahead.
> I don't think we will see 55cents again unless our market drops a couple of hundred points at least.
> So what will you do if it doesn't fall, buy at market or move on and find something else.
> If you really believe the recommendation from your friend and believe "this stock will do very, very well'' and has an upside whats a few cents against missing the trade.
> ...




Everyone has different trading strategies and this is one of mine.

I do my research, then set a price range i am prepared to buy in at and i do not break that range, unless new information is released.

It has saved me money and lost me money in the past, but overall it has made more than lost.

You say what's a few cents, well that depends on how much you invest as a few cents =  hundreds of dollars, depending on your outlay.

You say we won't see .55 again unless our market drops a couple of hundred points, but it doesn't always work like that.

Sectors get sold off in complete and utter disregard to how the market is performing in that day/week/month.

Metal prices will also have a bearing and with the next week or so possibly seeing an easing of Lead prices and possibly Zinc, it may see a sell off.

Of course it may also take off and hit .70c but as i said previously, that is not how i invest and if i miss an opportunity, i am a patient man and i can move on or wait for that share to come down again, if it does.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the pricing of Zinc and Lead, so while the improved production for CBH is great, will it perform to expectations with rising input costs and lower metals prices, i belive that is what the market is waiting for with this stock.

That's my 2c worth anyway.


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## jeromejf (14 December 2007)

CBH is looking good on the most recent new anounced

 CBH Resources (CBH) reports recent surface diamond drilling at the Hera deposit has recorded strong mineralisation.

The drilling confirms the "excellent" potential to expand the Hera base-metal and gold resource within the Hera-Nymagee corridor.

Following the recently announced successful drilling of the high-grade gold core of the Hera Main Lens, CBH commenced testing the extensions of the Far West and Hayes North structures at the north end of the Hera deposit.

*Previous drilling* by Triako in this area had recorded some of the highest grade intercepts outside the Main Lens, including 6.9m @ 17.1g/t Au, 8.2% Pb, 13.5% Zn and 45g/t Ag, (hole TNY074) which were open along strike and at depth. Geological interpretation and IP electrical geophysics indicates a northern extension to the mineralised trend, and recent diamond drilling focussed on infilling near TNY 074 and testing the along strike projection of mineralisation.

Ive come in late but i am getting in now ..hopefully this news will let the  rise stay for some time.


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## UMike (17 December 2007)

brerwallabi said:


> You must be thinking we are going to have a couple of poor days generally ahead.
> I don't think we will see 55cents again unless our market drops a couple of hundred points at least.
> So what will you do if it doesn't fall, buy at market or move on and find something else.
> If you really believe the recommendation from your friend and believe "this stock will do very, very well'' and has an upside whats a few cents against missing the trade.
> ...



Well we have had a couple of poor days now 

Got more at 57c and are now hoping for a couple of good days.


----------



## jeromejf (18 December 2007)

Hopefully this  news will see some rise  . there has been a few upgrades recently but no real  rise in prices... just wondring when its gonna  start rising
CBH today announced a 1.4 million tonne upgrade to the Sulphur Springs deposit, Panorama project, taking the total resource to 15.5 million tonnes at 3.5 per cent zinc and 1.3pc copper.

This follows recent drilling along strike that has extended the mineralisation to the west by approximately 150 metres.


----------



## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

jeromejf said:


> Hopefully this  news will see some rise  . there has been a few upgrades recently but no real  rise in prices... just wondring when its gonna  start rising
> CBH today announced a 1.4 million tonne upgrade to the Sulphur Springs deposit, Panorama project, taking the total resource to 15.5 million tonnes at 3.5 per cent zinc and 1.3pc copper.
> 
> This follows recent drilling along strike that has extended the mineralisation to the west by approximately 150 metres.




It's just due to all the uncertainty.

The market has copped a real hiding of late and not many stocks have been spared.

I think the days close was quite good, considering it hit .48c.

I am still not a holder of this stock.


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## Stan 101 (19 December 2007)

I bought back in from 52c to 49c yesterday and look forward to thixs share jumping back up to 60c and on with the production coming on line next year. I was happy with the recent announcements..


cheers,


----------



## michael_selway (19 December 2007)

UMike said:


> Well we have had a couple of poor days now
> 
> Got more at 57c and are now hoping for a couple of good days.




Hm, its has dropped quite a bit of late

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 4.7 7.4 8.3 3.8 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 *

thx

MS


----------



## UMike (19 December 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> I bought back in from 52c to 49c yesterday and look forward to thixs share jumping back up to 60c and on with the production coming on line next year. I was happy with the recent announcements..
> 
> 
> cheers,



I also are waiting for it to back up to 60c to make sense of my 57c purchase 


Lucky I bought with my last remaining few dollars a few @ 48c.

Westpac re-rated it today with an Intrinsic value of 57c

Should bounce back quickly ...... imo


----------



## Stan 101 (19 December 2007)

Umike, what did Westpac have the value at previously?......................

Cheers, 
.............................................


----------



## UMike (19 December 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> Umike, what did Westpac have the value at previously?......................
> 
> Cheers,
> .............................................




54c (by memory) they maintained a buy rating.

The main reason for the intrinsic value upgrade was for the update on the drilling results at Panorama in the "Significant Resource Increase for Panorama Open Pit Cu-Zn Project" Ann.


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## brerwallabi (20 December 2007)

UMike said:


> Well we have had a couple of poor days now
> 
> Got more at 57c and are now hoping for a couple of good days.




You might have got mine then Mike as I exited my trading plan did not allow me to hold.

Such is life.


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## UMike (20 December 2007)

brerwallabi said:


> You might have got mine then Mike as I exited my trading plan did not allow me to hold.
> 
> Such is life.



 Well it appears that you are ahead already.


1,000 apology's for the incorrect intrinsic values I had for Westpac's valuation.
My excuse was I had a wriggling toddler on my knee at the times. 

The updated value is 74c and it was 72c prior. (I am now logged on and reading it)


Very sorry for the incorrect data and noticed it did not make sense (news worthy interest)  today upon re-reading it.


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## UMike (21 February 2008)

CBH hammered just prior to the Half year reports.
While a little dissapointing, the results wern't unexpected.

Now that it may be linked with PEM in some way has recovered this weeks loses.

Good luck to all holders


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## Miner (21 February 2008)

When two lost brains meet togetehr they produce the finest idiot.

CBH was sinking and then this PEM merger talk. How come two inefficient organisations can have any synergy : they will sink more even if PEM share has been shot and CBH . All temporary phenomenon. This is the extract of report in FN Arena. I am posting in CBH as PEM and CBH will be applied together. 

*
Market Sentiment: 0.6 *



*PEM - PERILYA LIMITED *
Credit Suisse *rates PEM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral *- The analysts have downgraded Perilya's rating due to recent relative share price movements. In the past five days, Perilya's share price has risen 17.4% while the S&P/ASX200 has fallen 1.2%. 
Perilya has released encouraging results from its Mount Oxide deposit. Although this is positive, analysts believe that earnings will drive the share price, and Credit Suisse maintains the outlook for Perilya's earnings is weak at present. 

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.90 Difference$0.20) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If PEM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately - 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY08 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.99.


----------



## Miner (29 February 2008)

Can not believe it.
How come a technical analysis between two brokers so different ?
Huntleys recommend CBH as BUY.

THe analysis is appended
*
Weak 1H08 the bottom? 
Recommendation: Buy 22/02/2008*



Note: Marker indicates price of $0.42 at publication date.  

Investment Rating 
CBH owns the Endeavor zinc/lead mine near Cobar in NSW with annual capacity of 65kt of zinc and 35kt of lead in concentrates. Reserves support over 15 years, with potential for life extensions. The Panorama opencut in WA is set to start in FY10 with 20ktpa of copper and 50ktpa of zinc for at least seven years. Output of 30ktpa of zinc and 25ktpa of lead is expected from the Rasp mine in Broken Hill from mid 2008. Management aims to mould CBH into a mid tier miner via acquisitions and organic growth. The balance sheet is sound with about $160m net cash - excluding $200m of convertible notes, likely to convert. CBH is a relatively high cost, single mine producer. An understanding of commodity price and mining risk is needed.  


Result Description 
Adjusted 1H08 NPAT fell significantly from $21.1m in 1H07 to $4.4m primarily due to lower realised zinc prices. The headline result of $8.5m included $4.1m of unrealised foreign exchange and hedge gains. The pcp had no such one off items. 


Sales revenue slumped 36% to $91.0m mainly due to reduced zinc prices. Zinc and lead output was slightly below the pcp.


EBITDA was sliced 68% to $11.8m with the margin halving to a less than impressive 12.9%.

*
EBIT similarly fell 81% to $6.1m on a thin margin of 6.7%.*

Net operating cashflow was fair, up 59% to $18.5m but thanks only to beneficial working capital movements of $11.8m.


The balance sheet is sound with modest net debt of $39.6m. Of the debt, $199m is a convertible note likely to be exercised.


CBH expects improvement in 2H08 with the majority of Endeavor ore to come from the higher grade middle of the mine. Ore in 1H08 was primarily sourced from the lower grade bottom of the mine, which is also more expensive per tonne. 


CBH is in talks with Perilya regarding a potential merger. 


Impact 
The result missed our $9.6m forecast with 2Q08 production poorer than expected. With margins thin, profit is highly sensitive to small moves in prices, costs and sales volumes. Encouragingly, costs were as expected. CBH is placed to benefit from higher volumes and possible stronger prices. 


*We lower our FY08 NPAT forecast 26% to $21.1m due to the disappointing 1H08. Our FY09 NPAT forecast is little changed at $57.1m based on US$1.30/lb zinc and A$/US$ FX of 0.93. *

Our valuation remains 74c a share. Long term assumptions of 0.90/lb zinc, US$0.70/lb lead, US$2.00/lb copper, A$/US$ FX of 0.80 and a 10% discount rate are unchanged. 


Recommendation Impact (Last Updated: 22/02/2008)  
While disappointing, the profit result should prove the nadir for CBH, provided commodity prices don’t fall out of bed, a scenario we’re not predicting. A Perilya merger would unlock significant value for both PEM and CBH. It’s potentially a strongly positive development.   Price data based on previous close. 
Previous Close  Market Cap  
$0.42  $350 (million)  
52 Week High/Low  
$0.68 - $0.32  
Sector  
Materials 


Intrinsic Valuation  
$0.74  
Note  
US$0.90/lb zinc, US$0.70/lb lead, 10% discount rate 


Moat Rating  None 
Risk  High 
Company Beta  1.12 
Sector Beta  1.22 


Year 6/06A 6/07A 6/08E 6/09E 
NPAT ($m) -15.30 38.70 21.10 57.10 
EPS (c) -2.80 4.70 2.40 6.50 
% Change -300.00 -- -48.90 170.80 
DPS (c) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 
Franking (%) -- -- 0.00 0.00 
Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 
PER 0.00 12.00 17.30 6.40 

*Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates * 
2 Year Price Chart 






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Event Analysis

1H08 Result 1H07 1H08 % Chg 
Production       
Zinc in Conc (kt) 27.3 24.0 -3.6 
Lead in Conc (kt) 15.1 11.3 -1.7 
Silver in Conc (koz) 295.1 479.0 +81.7 
Financials       
Sales ($m) 142.8 91.0 -36.3 
EBITDA ($m) 36.9 11.8 -68.1 
EBIT ($m) 32.2 6.1 -81.0 
Pre-Tax Profit ($m) 31.5 4.2 -86.8 
Adjusted NPAT ($m) 21.1 4.4 -79.1 
Headline NPAT ($m) 21.1 8.5 -59.8 
Adjusted EPS (c) 2.7 0.5 -81.2 
Operating CF ($m) 11.6 18.5 +59.3 
Net Debt ($m) -26.9 39.6 n/a 
EBITDA Margin (%) 25.8% 12.9% -50.0 
EBIT Margin (%) 22.5% 6.7% -70.2


----------



## GREENS (20 March 2008)

GREENS said:


> I was reading in the Fin Review yesterday that perilya (PEM) is looking to make a moderate sized acquisition in the next 6-12 months. I threw out the article yesterday so can not exactly quote it now. If anyone else has the article would they mind posting up a quote? In short, they mentioned a few companies including JML, CUO and CBH.
> 
> CBH is the most obvious candidate given the synergies an acquisition could create; they both have significant operations, development and exploration in West NSW, such as Broken Hill and the Cobar Basin. Furthermore CBH has long life mines in this Western NSW area, a massive low cost/high grade Cu-Zn open pit in WA scheduled to come on line in 2009 and plenty of projects around Australia currently under evaluation.
> 
> Nevertheless, you would think that CBH would have to be up the top of their shopping list. The only problem that I can see that would stop PEM choosing CBH over other candidates is the fact that Toho Zinc has a 25% stake in the company and could potentially block or make it difficult to acquire the company.




Was only about a matter of time before these two companies came to an agreement and decided to merge their operations. Both are relatively high cost producers, producing at or very close to their marginal cost of production and are thus facing very challenging times at the moment i.e. thinning margins. If the zinc price falls further then these two companies won’t be able to make a profit standing alone. PEM’s share price has been mostly in freefall for the past year (and for good reason) whilst CBH has held up only slightly better. As stated previously there are plenty of efficiencies and synergies that a combined company could achieve given the close proximity of their current operations, development and exploration holdings in the western NSW region of Cobar and Broken Hill. 
The announcement: 

•Trading Holt for CBH and PEM as they continue in depth talks about a tie up. 
•News of the results will be released prior to market open Wed 26th March 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080320/pdf/31853rh8rs6805.pdf


PEM recent half year results – Cash flow after operating activities was -$8.8m. Cash flows after investment activities was a whopping -$35.3m, not a very sustainable situation to be in. Luckily for the company they have a bundle of cash to live off for the moment (i.e. $110m). 

CBH on the other hand needs as much cash as it can get its hand on at the moment with the current developments of Sulphur springs and broken hill as well as the expansion of the endeavour mine. CBH on the financial side came out much better than Perilya with a positive cash flow from operations of $18.52m, but because of significant expenditures back into the company’s growth projects, cash flow after investment activities was -$60m. The question here is whether this type of investment outlay which will continue into subsequent quarters will be worth it in the long run i.e. as a result of significant increases in production over the coming 6-18months. 

After the initial announcement of a merger, Perilya shares went down and CBH got a healthy boost. Hopefully the same happens again, but not sure really why this happened, as it seems to be PEM that is getting a lot of the benefits, unless analysts believe that Perilya’s assets are actually quite attractive yet poorly managed at the moment. 

Disclaimer: Hold an extremely small parcel of CBH.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 March 2008)

GREENS said:


> Was only about a matter of time before these two companies came to an agreement and decided to merge their operations. Both are relatively high cost producers, producing at or very close to their marginal cost of production and are thus facing very challenging times at the moment i.e. thinning margins. If the zinc price falls further then these two companies won’t be able to make a profit standing alone. PEM’s share price has been mostly in freefall for the past year (and for good reason) whilst CBH has held up only slightly better. As stated previously there are plenty of efficiencies and synergies that a combined company could achieve given the close proximity of their current operations, development and exploration holdings in the western NSW region of Cobar and Broken Hill.
> The announcement:
> 
> Disclaimer: Hold an extremely small parcel of CBH.




Hi Greens,

I think you will find the PEM/CBH script merger will be on a VWAP over a sustained period, quite a long one otherwise this one wouldn't have passed 1st base.


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## GREENS (22 March 2008)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Hi Greens,
> 
> I think you will find the PEM/CBH script merger will be on a VWAP over a sustained period, quite a long one otherwise this one wouldn't have passed 1st base.




Hey FBIAW

Just trying to understand where you’re coming from. You don’t view the scrip offer being based on the value at which the shares last traded (PEM -$1 And CBH $0.34) implying that 1 Perilya share would be offered for approx every 3 CBH shares held. i.e. a 1-for-3 scrip offer. Instead you believe it will be based on a WAP of both companies over a certain time frame say the last 3-6 months or even more? 

I got the following figures if you based it on the closing share price of each company over a 3 and 6 month period. 

3-month: 1-for-4.39
6-month: 1-for-5.35

It is quite obvious that Perilya’s share price and in turn its market capitalisation has diminished significantly over the past year. If Perilya had merged with CBH this time a year ago according to the SMH the scrip ratio would have been 7.5-for-1. So you believe that it will thus be based on a much longer time frame, otherwise talks would not have passed first base? Think I could have misunderstood what you were saying FBIAW, please fill me in if this is the case. 


On a totally different note, as a CBH shareholder, I personally think Perilya shareholders are getting a pretty good deal when it comes to a 1-for-3 offer. Having looked at Perilya’s financials, operating costs/lb and growth outlook, really there isn’t much value in the company and it thoroughly deserves to be trading where it is at the moment. (Refer to the many arguments I have posted in the PEM thread).

The only short to medium term upside I can see in terms of CBH merging with Perilya is:

•Perilya’s cash to fund the development at SS and broken hill. 
•Access to feed more ore from the currently producing endeavour and near producing broken hill mine through the underutilized mill of PEM at broken hill. Again whether CBH can even mine enough ore to put this underutilised capacity to good use is another question all together. CBH ore throughputs have only just begun to reach near full capacity at Cobar. 
•Perilya’s Mount Oxide Copper project looks quite attractive at these early stages, but is only in its infancy and is not expected to be in production for a number of years. 

The only hope I have for the merged entity is if CBH can turn production and milling at Perilya’s broken hill mine around or get there other higher grade development assets in near proximity into production ASAP, because at a cash cost of “$US0.93/lb for zinc” (from the latest half year reported), this may have to be shutdown or put on care and maintenance if zinc prices fall much further from their current levels. 

Just confirming I don’t even hold CBH in high regards, so this is not just a go at Perilya shareholders, the benefits of a merger are there for both companies; however in my view they are clearly more with PEM holders. A 3-for-1 scrip offer would be an excellent outcome for Perilya, as they get exposure to some significant and relatively high quality near term producing assets. On the other hand the good news for CBH holders is that they gain a wad of cash which will come in very handy when developing the SS deposit. The rest of the upside to CBH from Perilya’s assets is highly risky. If they get their broken hill assets producing at the lower end of the cost curve it will boost the combined company. If not it will be a significant drag on earnings.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 March 2008)

GREENS said:


> Hey FBIAW
> 
> Just trying to understand where you’re coming from. You don’t view the scrip offer being based on the value at which the shares last traded (PEM -$1 And CBH $0.34) implying that 1 Perilya share would be offered for approx every 3 CBH shares held. i.e. a 1-for-3 scrip offer. Instead you believe it will be based on a WAP of both companies over a certain time frame say the last 3-6 months or even more?
> 
> ...





Hi Greens,

Not going to get into back of the envelope fundamentals. 

IMO and as per previous post I'd be leaning towards a VWAP over the last few months as a minimum in any potential script merge.

We will know soon enough anyway!.


Cheers.


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## GREENS (23 March 2008)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Hi Greens,
> 
> Not going to get into back of the envelope fundamentals.
> 
> ...




Cheers for the thoughts. I’d just assumed it would have been based on the price the companies last traded before the trading holt similar to what OXR and ZFX did. But definitely see where you’re coming from and think it is a real possibility. I think if they did do a VWAP though, it would only be based on the past 3-6 months, I couldn’t see them going back further than that. I'm hoping from my view point as a CBH holder this is not the case and it is based on my first assumption. As you said, all will be revealed very shortly. Are you a PEM or CBH holder? If so any thoughts on the merged entity?


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## UMike (26 March 2008)

SO who is getting the best deal here?????

Extract of the meger Ann:

*Under the terms of the Proposed Merger, CBH shareholders will receive:

1 Perilya ordinary share for every 3 CBH shares;
1 Perilya option for every 20 CBH shares; and
Shares in Kimberley Metals, expected to be approximately 1 Kimberley Metals share for each 9.2 CBH shares.
*


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (31 March 2008)

GREENS said:


> Cheers for the thoughts. I’d just assumed it would have been based on the price the companies last traded before the trading holt similar to what OXR and ZFX did. But definitely see where you’re coming from and think it is a real possibility. I think if they did do a VWAP though, it would only be based on the past 3-6 months, I couldn’t see them going back further than that. I'm hoping from my view point as a CBH holder this is not the case and it is based on my first assumption. As you said, all will be revealed very shortly. Are you a PEM or CBH holder? If so any thoughts on the merged entity?





Hi Greens,

Soz for the late reply but went to Fiji over easter.................and stayed a bit longer. Its a beaut place to go if you ever get the chance.


Well it seems like you were on the money for a 1:3 script.

Yep I hold some PEM from a carry over trade in Feb, and quite a wack more from a few entries in the days before the trading halt.


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## GREENS (8 April 2008)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Hi Greens,
> 
> Soz for the late reply but went to Fiji over easter.................and stayed a bit longer. Its a beaut place to go if you ever get the chance.
> 
> ...




I am quite relieved that the offer wasn’t based on VWAP for the past few months. I wouldn’t have been happy with the proposed merger otherwise. After having a look over the merger report it looks like there are some real synergies to be had in the broken hill region. My view of the combined company has softened a bit, looks like both companies can gain considerably. Just a few off the top of my head. 

• Perilya should regain full capacity at its mill in Broken Hill from additional feed from CML-7 and maybe Endeavor, meaning that their costs of production will fall significantly and profit margins will become more attractive. 
• Should see cash costs at broken hill move back down towards the $0.60/lb level from their current levels of >$0.90/lb
• CBH will not have to spend significant amounts of capital on infrastructure (eg. new mill at CML-7) and access to Perilya’s supply terms. 
• Rationalisation of mine management and workforce
• Strong Balance sheet to move the Panorama projects (Sulpher Springs and Kangaroo Caves) and Mount Oxide into production as quick as possible. 

Also being a Perilya shareholder you may be able to answer this question regarding the flinders project. Is this just a mining operation of high grade ore from relatively small deposits? Therefore they have only very short mine life, for example Beltana was an open pit mine where mining was conducted over a 12 month time frame and concluded in Feb 2008. 

By the way Fiji sounds nice! Your shout


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## Fed23 (8 April 2008)

I got a question. If I buy shares in CBH now will I get the options outlined in todays announcement?

-One perilya ordinary share for every three CBD ordinary shares


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## GREENS (8 April 2008)

Fed23 said:


> I got a question. If I buy shares in CBH now will I get the options outlined in todays announcement?
> 
> -One perilya ordinary share for every three CBD ordinary shares




Yes. I couldn’t see why not. The merger and the conditions attached is yet be approved on by CBH shareholders and the acquisition of CBH shares has yet to take place. Have a look at the company report or presentation regarding the merger and dates accompany the transformation of CBH shares into Perilya stock, should give you an idea of how long you have to purchase stock in CBH if you want to receive the attached option.  To be 100% sure ring up the CBH hotline for enquires regarding the merger, you find the number in the recent company announcements.

Insert: Also just so you know, you receive 1 perilya share for every 3 shares held in CBH and in addition 1 PEM option exercisable at $2 for every 20 CBH shares.


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## Fed23 (8 April 2008)

Thanks Greens,

Just doing a bit of looking up and CBH plans to spin off some of its shares into Kimberley Metals. 9.2 CBH for 1 KM share when it gets listed in 4-6months time.

I wonder how this will effect the share price of CBH after 12 May 2008 as that is the last day of the spin off.

The merger isn't planned to be completed until late july.
Point to note thou after buying CBH you will own 3 companies.


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## countryboy (11 April 2008)

Presently the best way to buy into CBH is via PEM ....today for example PEM were $1.08 ish and CBH 39c apply the 3:1 and you are buying CBH for around 34-35c. I keep coming back to CBH as I search for the best stocks to take advantage of in the present market conditions/prices.

Do CBH still own a slice of PDZ?


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## arms (12 April 2008)

The price difference between the two can be part explained by the fact that CBH shareholders will, besides the 3:1, also get the free attached option and also the share spin off next month.

What price you attach to these is what price you feel the price differential should be.

A holder of both and hopefully once all this is finalised we may get back on track.

Arms


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## Fed23 (12 April 2008)

Arms, do you think after the spin of Kimberley Mines the share price will come down for CBH?

need to fell space


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## arms (13 April 2008)

I really wish i knew what will happen with the share price, but the market is very skittish at the moment and with Opes Prime etc small caps are seen as poison by a lot of people.

I spent a fair bit of time watching CBH last week and it traded up slowly during the week before dropping back on Friday. I actually liked the trading and thought it looked pretty positive. Tommorrow may be a different story.

After the spin off it may come back a bit, but the free option should see alot of people see it as the better entry into the merged identity.

At the end of the day where the market is will determine what will happen. I see the PPI figures and profit reporting in the states this week as the catalyst for the whole market and feel this week will determine what happens with the market in general.

This for me is a long term hold, over 12 months from now, topped up at 34.5c so confident the future of the merged group will see it prosper in the future.


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## Stan 101 (14 April 2008)

Sold out of CBH today at an average of 39.5 cents. I still like this share, but it's stagnating. Should have taken a sell when the first merger excitement ramped things. I'll look for a lower buy in opportunity before the spinoff but there are just too many trading opportunities at the moment to wait for CBH to be fruitful. I have been patient and CBH has been good to me, but now the strategy must change.

cheers,


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## UMike (19 May 2008)

Fed23 said:


> Arms, do you think after the spin of Kimberley Mines the share price will come down for CBH?
> 
> need to fell space



Well it hasn't dropped to much looking at it after the fact.

So does anyone have any idea what these Kimberley Mines shares are worth?


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## Stan 101 (20 May 2008)

No idea on the price of Kimberly. It has been quiet on the announcement front from both CBH and PEM. PEM dropped 5% in yesterday's trade. CBH did creep back also, though not as heavily and with the spinoff of Kimberly one would have assumed a bigger hit.

The waiting game continues..


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## rustyheela (25 May 2008)

any CBH scrip holders any idea of the "instinsic" value of kimberlly metals. Even a ballbark figure?


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## Miner (12 June 2008)

HOPEfully some good change will be done at CBH with management change which has been overdue for more than 6 months


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## muddy (8 August 2008)

Up on higher vol today, may be on the move up next week. Got in at 11.5, although i still hold a few at much higher. Anybody else thinking this is looking very good to hold for a couple of years. Pretty much a bet the zinc price isnt it.


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## JPC_ASX (14 July 2009)

any thoughts from anybody on the share purchase plan?
is it worthwhile taking this up?
i am a bit iffy...


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## UMike (15 July 2009)

JPC_ASX said:


> any thoughts from anybody on the share purchase plan?
> is it worthwhile taking this up?
> i am a bit iffy...



I've traded this more than any other sock ever.

Used to be my favorite. Then it became my heaviest loss. Now since i bought a shyteload at around the 4-6c mark and offloaded them all between 13.5c and 15.5c to end up down a bit overall.

I've bought some at the 12, 11 and 10c mark. 
However these latest purchases have been for just over $3,000 lots each.

 I am likely to get some professional advice and even then be extremely cautious when considering investing $15,000 more in them.



btw what happened with the spinoff of Kimberly ???????????????


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## ZERO TO TRILLION (26 July 2009)

It seems like an interesting stock. I am considering to take up the offer, but with uncertainty. The stock seems to be holding firm at current level. It may be a different story when The financial data is released (08/09). Although maybe that is already factored in the price.

It seems potential for rises may be restricted by the option of institutional investors to buy at anytime (at price equal to current SPP).

Anyone have any thoughts on future performance of CBH?


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## ricee007 (15 September 2009)

If only I could buy some cheap CBH Notes.... If I was after a "risky" share I would strongly consider CBH... (Even with how blunt and unprofessional (IMHO) their ASX releases / website is)...but, I'm not after a risky share... I would LOVE some CBHGA (Is it GA, or am I mixing up another companies bond?) at $300 or so... I can't believe they traded at $4.6 earlier this year.

Hmmm.

Now, if only I could place an order for $300


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## skc (7 January 2010)

One of the last zinc stock to run and what a run it was today. Up 26%.

Speeding ticket response actually mentioned that other peers have run hard already. KZL also did a nice pop, while PEM and TZN popped long ago.

I was lucky to pick up some at 11c using a "differential popping" strategy. Sold have today at the close, and will hold the rest looking for 20c... still need to think of a re-entry strategy if there was any pull back from today's action.

CBH was mentioned as a possible takeover target of PEM by some analyst (on Business Spectator). So let's see if there is any fire to this smoke.


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## GREENS (8 January 2010)

SKC, there are two trains of thought this morning on CBH. One is a complete takeover is pending (possibly by a Chinese company?) and secondly, CBH and Perilya are about to announce some sort of JV for mining and/or processing of ore at Broken Hill. I’m going with the second option as it seems to be the more logical one. The savings of bringing the company’s activities together in Broken Hill make perfect sense given the synergies on offer to both CBH and PEM. TZN and CBH have definitely lagged significantly and regardless of any positive news were due for strong rises to catch up to their peers and in turn the steep price rises in zinc and lead. Technically there was a strong break of resistance on huge volume of just over 20m which makes me think there are still further gains to be had. Next point of resistance is 16c, if it can get through this then I think it could run pretty hard and 20c should be achievable.


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## UMike (8 January 2010)

GREENS said:


> SKC, there are two trains of thought this morning on CBH. One is a complete takeover is pending (possibly by a Chinese company?) and secondly, *CBH and Perilya are about to announce some sort of JV for mining and/or processing of ore at Broken Hill*. I’m going with the second option as it seems to be the more logical one. The savings of bringing the company’s activities together in Broken Hill make perfect sense given the synergies on offer to both CBH and PEM. TZN and CBH have definitely lagged significantly and regardless of any positive news were due for strong rises to catch up to their peers and in turn the steep price rises in zinc and lead. Technically there was a strong break of resistance on huge volume of just over 20m which makes me think there are still further gains to be had. Next point of resistance is 16c, if it can get through this then I think it could run pretty hard and 20c should be achievable.



Haven't they burnt this bridge a few times over the last few years.

I too sold a third at 14.5c
Will sel the rest at 19.5c 
or pick some up if it retraces.


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## skc (8 January 2010)

GREENS said:


> SKC, there are two trains of thought this morning on CBH. One is a complete takeover is pending (possibly by a Chinese company?) and secondly, CBH and Perilya are about to announce some sort of JV for mining and/or processing of ore at Broken Hill. I’m going with the second option as it seems to be the more logical one. The savings of bringing the company’s activities together in Broken Hill make perfect sense given the synergies on offer to both CBH and PEM.




Agree with CBH / PEM purely from the article below. Are those trains of thought just your own thoughts or where did you see the Chinese rumour? 



> Mining extra capital: Perilya (PEM) 51.5c, CBH Resources (CBH) 10c
> 
> * CRITERION: Tim Boreham
> * From: The Australian
> ...




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...esources-cbh-10c/story-e6frg9lo-1225798554286




UMike said:


> Haven't they burnt this bridge a few times over the last few years.
> 
> I too sold a third at 14.5c
> Will sel the rest at 19.5c
> or pick some up if it retraces.




Like all good marriages and other epic love stories. There will always be drama before the happy ending.


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## UMike (8 January 2010)

skc said:


> Agree with CBH / PEM purely from the article below. Are those trains of thought just your own thoughts or where did you see the Chinese rumour?
> ........
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...esources-cbh-10c/story-e6frg9lo-1225798554286
> .......
> Like all good marriages and other epic love stories. There will always be drama before the happy ending.



Tim Boreham is not often wrong although with PEM doubling since,maybe he could of also rated it a "Spec buy". Although I agreed with him at the time.

CBH - trading halt. With the recent sharp rise It might be some good news for a change,.


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## GREENS (8 January 2010)

SKC my last post was based on two rumours currently floating around the market in regards to CBH, with my own thoughts attached. Given the amount of Chinese investment in the zinc sector I thought it could have been a Chinese company. However once I finally got around to reading my Fin Rev this morning there was a small article suggesting that “CBH Resources is expected to reveal this morning that it has received an incomplete, conditional proposal (by Nyrstar) that would change control of the company”. Hence chucking my out my speculation of a Chinese buyer. 

Also there has been long held talks between CBH and Perilya in regards to bringing together their Broken Hill operations as you already know. Hence any significant price rise in CBH shares will always bring with it speculation that they will be combining their Broken Hill operations because it makes perfect sense to do so. 

However the more I think about it, the more it seems that a takeover is likely, because you’d have thought if they were going to merge their Broken Hill operations then the positive news should have flowed into trading in Perilya yesterday, which it didn’t. Put another way you would have at least expected much stronger volume in Perilya shares if this was the case. Nevertheless we should know what’s happening by at the latest Tuesday next week when the trading halt is due to be lifted. 

Here is a few articles supporting both theories: 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=azW4QJCNlZaU
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...rge-on-perilya-deal-rumour-20100107-lwk3.html
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ng-halt-pd20100108-ZGVA3?OpenDocument&src=hp7


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## skc (8 January 2010)

GREENS said:


> SKC my last post was based on two rumours currently floating around the market in regards to CBH, with my own thoughts attached. Given the amount of Chinese investment in the zinc sector I thought it could have been a Chinese company. However once I finally got around to reading my Fin Rev this morning there was a small article suggesting that “CBH Resources is expected to reveal this morning that it has received an incomplete, conditional proposal (by Nyrstar) that would change control of the company”. Hence chucking my out my speculation of a Chinese buyer.
> 
> Also there has been long held talks between CBH and Perilya in regards to bringing together their Broken Hill operations as you already know. Hence any significant price rise in CBH shares will always bring with it speculation that they will be combining their Broken Hill operations because it makes perfect sense to do so.
> 
> ...




Thanks Greens. PEM not halted prob means they have nothing to do with the CBH news. 

If a takeover is launched then I wonder what impact would that have on PEM? May be they get some takeover aura to them as well... assuming the same buyer will play the consolidation game as CBH/PEM can't strike anything themselves.


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## GREENS (9 January 2010)

SKC I don’t think this implies anything for Perilya. They have a 50% holder in ZHONGJIN Mining, and unless they looked to lodge a takeover proposal it would seem very unlikely. However the key reason behind the CBH bid was the fact that it has been largely trading at a significant discount over the past 6 months. If your start them at a common base on a yearly chart, based on yesterday’s closing prices Perilya has risen just over 300% however CBH even after its gains of the past few days is trading well below is rival up only 140%. Over the prevailing few years the company’s SP’s were very closely correlated and in turn has created the opportunity for someone to takeover the company on the cheap given zinc prices are back to well over the $1 mark. Therefore my point is that I don’t think a bid for CBH makes Perilya a takeover target, because it does not offer the value that CBH does at this current point in time. However one could also argue Perilya deserves to be trading at some sort of premium given the major turnaround in its Broken Hill zinc operations and the potential of its Mt Oxide copper project.

Also in the Australian article below Perilya has put to bed rumours of a potential corporate transaction between the two. Hence it looks likely that Nyrstar is set to make some sort of takeover proposal however the article also suggests the bid is not close to being finalised. 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-takeover-target/story-e6frg8zx-1225817484908


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## UMike (11 January 2010)

Nyrstar have proposed to acquisre CBH "through a
scheme of arrangement of all the ordinary shares in CBH for cash, or alternatively Nyrstar shares. The proposed acquisition price for each CBH share is *13.5 cents*."

Hopefully this can be increased. 
SP ~14c atm moment so heres hoping.


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## countryboy (8 February 2010)

CBH close to starting up all over the place. Certainly hiring a few people so thats a good sign. Rumours galore around town prior to Nystar bid. If metal prices can hold and analysts are predicting they will , it will be good to see this company making some money.

I was impressed how quickly they closed up shop when things turned sour unlike another crew who went on producing as if it was 2007. I like the CBH management, proactive and have set the company on a good direction.


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## UMike (12 March 2010)

CBH trading again. up 4c to 18c

Improved proposal by Nyrstar NV to acquire all of the ordinary shares and
convertible notes in CBH Resources Limited



			
				From the ann said:
			
		

> Nyrstar's Revised Proposal would include
> an improved cash payment of A$0.195 per CBH share or, at CBH’s shareholders’
> election, scrip consideration comprising Nyrstar shares at an exchange ratio which
> would be set prior to announcement of the transaction at a level that would deliver
> value equivalent to A$0.195 per CBH share.




So what will be the next chapter to this story????


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## countryboy (14 March 2010)

toho still in the box seat and able to expand what they offer without taking over the company. I think Nystar will need to be around the 22c mark plus.( I recall 22c  or there abouts being what Toho were given a placement of share for capital) 

A response next week will probably be negative from the CBH board which means Nystart will need fto orget it or get the final offer up before the AGM-31 st March ?

How much ore in RASP are we giving to Toho at what price? It would be great to see what Toho think they will get the ore for.

Nystar want to keep Pt Pirie up and going so there is some real benefits to them chasing this.

What ever the outcome CBH SP will stay around its current levels whilst this is played out - 18c plus (not sure i can say this...  im sure a moderator will help)


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## UMike (19 May 2010)

well now it seems the Toho 24c bid will be successful.

Also Deutsche Bank has now aquired a 10.14% stake in CBH.

Toho now can-not get the 90% it needs to buyout all the shares without Deutsche Bank aproval.

Why do you think Deutsche Bank is doing this?????


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