# Will the market hit 6000?



## The Mint Man (12 February 2007)

So who here thinks that the market will hit 6000 in the near future, say over the next month or so.
Why, why not? 
How far up (or down if thats your view) will it go and for how long will it stay there?

There have been many threads saying 'when do you expect the market to fall' etc. but as of yet there have been no signs and the market has seemed to shrug this bear talk off! Time for the bulls to have a say.

cheers.


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## krisbarry (12 February 2007)

Yes it will continue and hit 6666....what an evil number


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## theasxgorilla (12 February 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Yes it will continue and hit 6666....what an evil number




 I hope you're right STC.


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## The Mint Man (12 February 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Yes it will continue and hit 6666....what an evil number



No actually......
it would be more evil to just hit the devils number dead on.
666


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## The Mint Man (14 February 2007)

getting that much closer now


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## greggy (14 February 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> getting that much closer now



With the way this speculative bubble is going I wouldn't be surprised to see the market hit 7000 at some stage this year.  But watch out for Oct 07, the 20th anniversary of the 1987 Crash.  Just my thoughts after 28 years of trading.
DYOR


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## exgeo (14 February 2007)

YES


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## exgeo (14 February 2007)

NO.


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## exgeo (14 February 2007)

Who really cares? Do your research, buy undervalued stocks and you'll make money no matter what the overall market is doing.


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## Kauri (14 February 2007)

Yes, but I also think that 6000 may hit the market...hard..


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## theasxgorilla (14 February 2007)

greggy said:
			
		

> With the way this speculative bubble is going I wouldn't be surprised to see the market hit 7000 at some stage this year.  But watch out for Oct 07, the 20th anniversary of the 1987 Crash.  Just my thoughts after 28 years of trading.
> DYOR




I'm also curious to see what happens with October 2007...maybe it will be like Y2K (a fizzer),  or maybe there will be some real fireworks


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## The Mint Man (14 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Yes, but I also think that 6000 may hit the market...hard..



Fair enough, maybe that should have been one of the poll options.



			
				exgeo said:
			
		

> Who really cares? Do your research, buy undervalued stocks and you'll make money no matter what the overall market is doing.



True but this is an indicator of how the market is doing in general, so it is of interest to most of us....
By the way, you no longer need to double or triple post rubbish... you have enough posts and posts per day to enter the stock comp : 

cheers


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## greggy (14 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I'm also curious to see what happens with October 2007...maybe it will be like Y2K (a fizzer),  or maybe there will be some real fireworks



I just feel that some people will get nervous around Oct and start taking some profits off the table as I believe that the market will continue its strong until then.  7000 as a target may look silly at this stage, but I feel that this bubble is set to go higher.  Resource stocks will continue to lead the charge.
DYOR


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## The Mint Man (14 February 2007)

Yes it (7000) may look silly but so did 5000 or 6000 at one stage. 
That is partly the reason why I started this thread. As I said in my first post... there has been doom sayers around for quite some time now. When we had that correction last year some were saying 'the sky is falling'.
The market has continued to shrug this all off. 
Of course there will be those doom sayers that say 'see I was right' when the market does stop for a break but some of those have been rambling on for over a year now.


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## theasxgorilla (14 February 2007)

exgeo said:
			
		

> Who really cares? Do your research, buy undervalued stocks and you'll make money no matter what the overall market is doing.




I care!  If it gets to 6000 and I'm not making money then I have a problem.


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## Smurf1976 (14 February 2007)

greggy said:
			
		

> With the way this speculative bubble is going I wouldn't be surprised to see the market hit 7000 at some stage this year.  But watch out for Oct 07, the 20th anniversary of the 1987 Crash.  Just my thoughts after 28 years of trading.
> DYOR



Agreed about the October issue. No doubt there will be mention of 1987 in the media and this may well result in a selloff amongst mum & dad investors who haven't thought much about risk so far.


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## Ol School Skata (14 February 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> No actually......
> it would be more evil to just hit the devils number dead on.
> 666




That would be evil - if the market dropped 89% to hit 666

OSS


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## Bush Trader (14 February 2007)

I posted this onn the correction thread earlier today, it may be of interest.  Brokers may not be our favorite mob, however they do drive investment sentiment.


The following is an extract reported by FN Arena yesterday 

"Credit Suisse holds the view, demand for Australian shares will outstrip supply significantly this year. The Broker even uses the term "unprecedented". The broker believes last year demand already outweighed supply, despite the large T3 offer, and this has pushed up the share market's performance into double digits again. This year the gap should be much, much wider. 
If Credit Suisse's calculations prove correct circa 4% of the total market capitalisation of Australian equities will be looking for reinvestment in the market this year. All these funds come from excess cash (paid out through dividends or share buybacks), mandatory superannuation (with changes in legislation adding more to the basket this year), corporate mergers and acquisitions, private equity deals and -not to forget- the government's Super Fund. 
Last year, the strategists argue, the overall PE for the Australian share market rose by 10%. Credit Suisse sees a direct relationship with the demand/supply balance. Considering the broker believes the imbalance for 2007 will be four times larger as in 2006, it would be easy to see the market PE to expand further this year. 
The fact that the bond market has now priced out any rate hike in the near term will no doubt contribute to such a scenario. 
There is, of course, a third scenario whereby share prices retreat to create room to move further upwards again.

At a time when several commentators are pointing out that underlying momentum in the US equity markets appears to be waning, and the market is starting to look "heavy", investors can possibly draw confidence from Credit Suisse's analysis that any possible weakness will make the overall market simply more attractive. "


Cheers


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## The Mint Man (15 February 2007)

Thanks for that Bush Trader, very interesting.
cheers


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## hitmanlam (15 February 2007)

greggy said:
			
		

> With the way this speculative bubble is going I wouldn't be surprised to see the market hit 7000 at some stage this year.  But watch out for Oct 07, the 20th anniversary of the 1987 Crash.  Just my thoughts after 28 years of trading.
> DYOR




I think I'm going to be selling on Oct 06 just incase it happens.  I think we are safe till at least May imo.


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## greggy (15 February 2007)

hitmanlam said:
			
		

> I think I'm going to be selling on Oct 06 just incase it happens.  I think we are safe till at least May imo.



I'm a firm believer in history repeating itself yet again. I feel that this year will be one of the most volatile ever.  The first half may well see a strong rise in the market, then move sideways and then a sizeable correction starting in Oct 07.  I intend to have plenty of cash available around this time for any bargains that may emerge at that time.  Meanwhile, on with the bull run.
DYOR


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## Bronte (15 February 2007)

*6000.0 Exactly*  
Now 5997.4


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## Buster (15 February 2007)

Hey Greggy,



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> 'Watch out for Oct 07, the 20th anniversary of the 1987 Crash.  Just my thoughts after 28 years of trading.



Ha ha.. Remember it well.. I first dipped my toe into the stockmarket in September 87, at the ripe ol' age of 22, after a 'financial advisor' visited the ship that I was on and gave us the 'good oil'.. Needless to say I watched my dough reduce considerably shortly after, and my first reaction was 'This is a Mugs Game' and I walked away from shares for almost ten years (ironically when I should have been buying up big!!) with my vote firmly entrenched in the 'property' camp.. 

Although I did quite nicely (in my view.. probably poorly in the view of some on this site..) with property over the years, I have been nickle'd and dime'd to death with the 'Brokerage' and 'management' fee's over the years (not to mention the Agent's Brother in law 'Maintenance Man' tax every second month and knucklehead tennants..) and I now much prefer direct investment in my own share 'portfolio'..    Only one investment property left, which I will hang onto..

I for one hope that your premonition does not come to fruition.. I'll find you if it does..   

Cheers,

Buster


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## CanOz (15 February 2007)

6000 may not get busted tomorrow, but next week for sure.

 

Cheers,


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## giss (15 February 2007)

Tomorrow for sure, when you got so far the last bit of a burst is the least thing to think of. The next day however is the problem--- oh **** where over 6000 - everyones doomed --- dive, dive, dive.

No really the way the market looks at the moment its like the supercycle has just shown its greedy face. Beware not to overfill your bellies. It'll grow till u burst.

It will make more sense in 6 months, because supply has a long way to catch up. 

I think we are in for a super cycle & that the rule to use. Buy & sell its mosty going up. How long for? How long did the housing boom last---00-04 so the next 3 years at least. Then kaboom because no more bubbles.


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## shinobi346 (15 February 2007)

I think I'll wait till Oct 07 to pick up some bargains.


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## The Mint Man (19 February 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> 6000 may not get busted tomorrow, but next week for sure.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers,



theres a good chance that you will be right.


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## coyotte (21 February 2007)

Fail to see why the markets will not go higher.
This is not like 1987 when the DJIA was like a skyrocket nor is it like :

Jan 95 to Jan 2000 -- 37 to 112 a 200% increase in 5 years !

This time round :

Oct 2002 to Feb 2007 -- 75 to 127 a more modest 70% in 4.5 years 

and the DOW has just caught up with where it was back in Jan 2000 !

Maybe a correction in commodities , but there are heaps of other areas to trade 


The way I see it the DJI has just broken out of a 6 year  Ascending Triangle with a possible pull back to the 115 resistance line or a worst case , 1 week down to the 105 trend line .

We panic when it's up , then we bitch when it's down --- no pleasing us 


Cheers


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## The Mint Man (23 February 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> theres a good chance that you will be right.




just got there mate, up 20 points, through 6000.
Now lets se if it keeps going or pulls back.
Guys that said 'not in near future' or 'correction first', you lose! : 

Cheers


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## dodgers (24 February 2007)

next significant resistance 6089... lets wait and see..

its getting hot in here, time to change to my shorts


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## The Mint Man (28 February 2007)

well I think that its safe to say that 'Yes, but will quickly pull back for a breath' won this poll.

cheers


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## >Apocalypto< (28 February 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> just got there mate, up 20 points, through 6000.
> Now lets se if it keeps going or pulls back.
> *Guys that said 'not in near future' or 'correction first', you lose! *:
> 
> Cheers





Mint Man don't you love how the market loves to prove anyone wrong that makes a statement!


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## The Mint Man (28 February 2007)

ummm I dont understand  
It hit 6000 before having a correction and it did hit 6000 in the 'near future'.
so whats your point?


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## The Mint Man (4 April 2007)

Smashed through it this morning.


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## Buffettology (4 April 2007)

greggy said:


> With the way this speculative bubble is going I wouldn't be surprised to see the market hit 7000 at some stage this year.  But watch out for Oct 07, the 20th anniversary of the 1987 Crash.  Just my thoughts after 28 years of trading.
> DYOR




Well its now over 6000.  I believe the market will keep churning along, at least until next month and the RBA meeting (where a rate rise looks likely, though I got this months result wrong).  But I think it will rebound quickly after that, until time-lags kick in and we see a slowdown in the indicators.  Not to mention, the US is meant to be releasing some negative economic indicators later this year, so towards the end of the year, I believe we will see an end to this bull.  

20th anniversary, interesting, will wait and see.


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