# Trading gurus and trading courses



## joe8489 (25 February 2009)

hi

i am new to this forum so go easy on me if i have broken a rule in starting something that has already been addressed. 

a couple of housekeeping questions before I proceed.

1. If i run a search on topic that I would like to discuss and it appears, only thing being that the thread is 2 years old and the last person to add to it did so 18 months ago, am i better off starting a new thread or will people still see that question appear and the thread's start date is immaterial?

2. Am i am able to mention the names of educators , authors impartially or is there some etiquette or rule surrounding that?

ok, i shall commence

firstly, bloody awesome forum , im actually hooked and have evenn found myself vry amused at some of the banter on this thing, not to mention some of the electronic mexican stand-offs between traders - absolute gold.

anyway, I have been trading / investing for a few years, albeit intermittently and have had some reasonable success of late (through trading, not investing i should add). If you read my first post you - assuming you're intrested in doing so - you get a feel for the kind of trader I am and my background. I have been heavily involved in education the past six months and learnt quite a bit. Admittedly, quite a bit through this forum.

What I struggle to get my head is the mere existence of financial education and other resources that are designed to help you make money, to help you think and grow rich, to help you hit your first mill with 24 months of trading bla bla bla.

Why is it that I am skeptical when it comes to these educational resources??
Someone once told me there is a saying "people who can - do. Peope who can't  - teach". Why is it that WD Gann was apparently the guru of of wall street, reportedly taking $50m out of the financial markets (Present value) yet he has spent copious amounts of time writing about 20+ books on trading strategies? Why do people purport to have made millions in the sharemarket through trading and then market a 2 day trading seminar valued at $1,500 to a bunch of schmucks on a sunday morning free of charge he could be spending those 3 hours between 9am and 12pm with his kids at the park? Surely a potential $15,000 (1,500 x 10 poeple) - minus costs, over the course of a weekend is nothing in comparison to what one can make in the fx markets or through a money maker platform where the leverage ranges from 20:1 --> 400:1.  US$500 a pip on 100 pips for the week is US$50,000 and you dont have to worry about fielding stupid questions on a sunday morning at 9.30am from a some half witted dude who has just found out what the sharemarket is. Especially after a large saturday night drinking pinots with your GF and some firends, having slept poorly due to head throbbing from the wine. Surely , that would be the last thing on that dudes mind. Why does he do it? why is there a score of these sorts of educators out there that market these courses who narket themselves on the back of their innate ability to pick turning points in the market? Are they not better off loading up positions / contracts so they can make $5-10m in a year (possible figure when you factor in the power of leverage and also the certainty (minimisation of risk) inherent in thier trades).

I was reading many of TremblingHand's posts and saw one where he turned a small amoutn on trading capital into a rather obscene one. Whilist I appreciate this isnt the norm, Im quite confident that there are traders who know there stuff, their market and have that type of edge to achieve those sorts of returns. I am also confident that many wouldnt want to divulge their sectrets. Why would they?? If they can make most of the money they need in the market (i say most they need, not most they want) then why would they go for an extra few K here and there when they risk disgruntled budding traders knocking on their door because the trading they were taught didnt suit their genetic make up and trading physchology, hence they lost all the money??

I also read from a few posts relating to TremblingHand's posts that he shouldnt have to divulge his trading strategies for the following reasons:

a) he has worked hard for it, sitting in front of monitors for 8,000 odd hours; 
b) it suits his trading personality and it may not suit others so it seems futile sharing it with the wider market ;
c) because by enducating others he may inadvertantly be creating more competition / disrupting the depth of whatever market he trades thereby adversely affecting his trades (im not sure the merit behind this but i am sure there are many thinly traded markets out there)

And I agree whole heartedly, I for one would not be inclined to share vital information with strangers who could potentially profit from my methodology, asides from sharing it with family and close friends, and anyone else who needed geniune assistance (fyi, i am not at that level of expertise yet, but I would say that is how I would feel).

I would be more inclined to 'get it right' before training others. ie. if I had made $30-50mill in the financial markets as that is the amoutn I have calculated I would need to provide for my family and I quite comfortable, then I would definately consider empowring to others wiht the knowledge I have used, then I will change name to joe buffet. But until that happens I will continue calling myself Joe Gekko (without the charm, charisma and $$) and carry on learning and trying to get ahead

I know I have been alittle verbose here , thanks to Mr Pinot , but does anyone share my intrigue on this topic, if so I would be happy for you to either shed some light on it or add to it so that others who have experience with these educators can comment.


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## Trembling Hand (25 February 2009)

LOL 

I'm gonna get kicked off for creating multiple aliases.


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## peter2 (25 February 2009)

Seems that your pinot is 40-0 and serving for the set as I am not sure what you are asking or want to discuss. Skepticism of any seemingly "too good to be true" claim is normal, but don't let that influence your views about trading success. It is so much easier to sell the dream than create it that is why there is a plethora of trading education.

Reading TH's "...rather obscene..." but generous forum posts shows you that it can be done. What you don't see is the effort/work that TH must have put in to create his dream. 

You may continue to read about the dream or set goals to create your own. The education teaches you the process to start. Your trading results (or losses) will give you instant feedback about what needs fixing. 

Only you can create your dream. You can't buy an easy solution.


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## Naked shorts (25 February 2009)

TH isnt running any seminars or publishing any books.... yet 

I think there are some traders out there who can see the troubles other new traders are going through, think about themselves when they were at that stage and try to help out through genuine kindness. These traders dont ask for money. What they get in return is far greater.


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## joe8489 (25 February 2009)

peter2 said:


> Seems that your pinot is 40-0 and serving for the set as I am not sure what you are asking or want to discuss.




fair point. What am i keen to know is the legitimacy of these educators who spend so much time educating others when they can just be making more money trading theire own account - thereby freeing up there time time so they can do the things they enjoy the most. 


I am currently doing a course on trading and I am finding it very useful (though I have only backtested their strategy and have paper traded it for a few weeks now). There are other parts to the course that will help with my education but my only road block is my thinking on educators. 

Thanks for your input though


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## jersey10 (25 February 2009)

For some people educating others can be a passion and something that they are intrinsically motivated to do.  In order to provide this education there can be significant costs involved.  I see it as very logical for people who find educating others intrinsically rewarding to charge a fee to the beneficiaries of the education they are providing in order to cover costs as well as make a profit from the years it has taken them to develop the skills to provide that education.


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## GumbyLearner (25 February 2009)

jersey10 said:


> For some people educating others can be a passion and something that they are intrinsically motivated to do.  In order to provide this education there can be significant costs involved.  I see it as very logical for people who find educating others intrinsically rewarding to charge a fee to the beneficiaries of the education they are providing in order to cover costs as well as make a profit from the years it has taken them to develop the skills to provide that education.




wonderful to say the least, thankyou jersey10! 

I just don't believe in throwing bricks threw windows!

There are much better solutions! Just don't let people go hungry, otherwise expect a brick! :


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## joe8489 (25 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> wonderful to say the least, thankyou jersey10!
> 
> I just don't believe in throwing bricks threw windows!
> 
> There are much better solutions! Just don't let people go hungry, otherwise expect a brick! :




Hi Gumby

I am not sure what you are alluding to here with all your cliches, lyrics and poetry but from my limited experience on this site i am quickly getting the impression that you have a sniff around, riding on the coattails of members who post sound replies to legimate questions because you struggle to come up with anything that resembles an insightful reply on your own.

do try and hold back your comments because so far out of the 4 or so posts you have made, 3 have been drivvle.


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## GumbyLearner (25 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> Hi Gumby
> 
> I am not sure what you are alluding to here with all your cliches, lyrics and poetry but from my limited experience on this site i am quickly getting the impression that you have a sniff around, riding on the coattails of members who post sound replies to legimate questions because you struggle to come up with anything that resembles an insightful reply on your own.
> 
> do try and hold back your comments because so far out of the 4 or so posts you have made, 3 have been drivvle.




I'm not a self confessed guru of trading and nor am I hoping to smash out my ideal investments! Sorry if you don't agree with my strategy! You should pay CASH MONEY if you seek greater advice, I DON'T profer as such! Sorry fella ,just a blogger!


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## Wysiwyg (25 February 2009)

> Why is it that I am skeptical when it comes to these educational resources??




I would rather err on the side of skepticism than join a group destined for the shearing shed.
One could spend 10 years learning the market machinations and trading methodologies through the eyes of someone else or alternatively, spend 10 years `experiencing` the game first hand.There is a nice balance there somewhere  .


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## Nick Radge (25 February 2009)

I'll put in my 2c here, from the 'dark side' 

Firstly I'd say that if educators were not of use they wouldn't be in business. Supply and demand. I can say from my own personal experience that there is a huge demand for education after the down turn in equities. My feelings at the time was that it could either way; people just stop trading the markets or they seek out education so they can continue. The latter has certainly occurred in my view. But even so, if an educator is no good at what he/she does, then they'll be out of business.

Secondly, and I think this is appropriate in light of TH being mentioned, is that not all educators actually seek out that route. I was 'sought' out back in 1999 to help people teach them to trade after posting on a forum, no different to this. I started getting PM's to teach. At $1000 per day without so much as the person balking, well why not? Now I can guarantee, without speaking with TH, that he is getting requests from people. I know, because I have had two people just this week ask to be taught like TH trades. He i snot seeking it out. People wanting that experience are seeking him out - again, a natural demand.

I assume that with a comment such as "people who can - do. People who can't - teach" you would know Butch Harmon, Bob Rotella, Mac O'Grady. Let me tell you about Mac O'Grady who 'teaches' people how to play golf. He's never been on tour, not even sure he's won a tour event. He charged US$1000 per hour, but, here is the big one, he only teaches pro's. His clients include Seve Ballesteros, Curtis Strange, Vijay Singh and others. He wa shere in Noosa the other day teaching...more pro's. They came from far and wide, including many touring pro's. I think it ironic one makes the assumption, "people who can do, people who can't teach' because in every day society, every golf club and every tennis club it occurs everyday yet that's okay. But for some reason when it comes to trading there is skepticism. Yes, there are spruikers, but they also exist in golf and tennis. Go figure.

What about the likes of Paul Tudor Jones, William Echkardt, David Kyte, Mark B Fisher. All these guys are some of the largest and most successful traders ever, yet they all run many other busniesses, some of which are teaching, books, seminars, blogs, etc etc. 

Why?

In my view my 'non-trading' businesses are exactly that. They are a perfect 'call option'.   

Much of what I do is rule based trading. The hard work has been done with years of research. Now it's a matter of 'Just do it' which allows a lot of free time. Being relatively young I still strive to keep my brain reasonably active and still have a passion for the markets to stay in that field. Coaching is the perfect way, and the perfect call option.

Just my 2c...


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## tech/a (25 February 2009)

> "people who can - do. People who can't - teach".




I once held this view to a degree.

This changed when I did an "Advanced Management" course at the Adelaide Uni. It was $5000 and I had 2 of my people join me--I was the ultimate sceptic---what could these people teach me--Id been in business 20 yrs--doing! None of the lecturers had been or were in business.--Perhaps my staff would glean something from the course---were my thoughts.

Well after 12 mths my answer to "What could I learn" was---heaps and heaps and heaps! That $15k investment has repaid itself time and time again and still is.

As for trading.
I believe its more about what you *DONT* need to know than what you *THINK *you do.

I look for in a mentor *Trading*/Business/Property---the following

(1) A very broad range of knowledge--a been there done that person.

(2) An *ON GOING* proven track record in *ALL* market conditions,I want to see first hand how they handle the good and *IN PARTICULAR THE BAD*.

(3) I must understand and see out of square thinking---where is the edge I need to see it.

(4) I must know them, do I trust them are they *REAL* people or purely sales people.

(5) What is their passion is it the same as mine?

(6) Are the answers to my questions specific? Can I understand and see how to implement their advice---if its grey fuzzy--"Look at what I have achieved and here are the irrefutable results"---just doesnt cut it for me.

(7) Can they advise *ME* or are they stuck in *one size fits all mentality*
ie My way or the sky way. One size or one mothodolgy doesnt fit all!
*Everyone* has different circumstances,goals and personalities.

I dont want to trade like TH trades, it doesnt suit ME or Fundamentally or indicator based--etc etc.

They are out there and generally they dont come from flashy advertisements.

I either search mine out---I go looking for an expert in a particular field of which I'm not expert and often dont wish to take the 10,000 hrs to become an expert I'm happy to buy their experience--particularly if I can condense it for my use. I employ Coders for Systems formulas for instance.

OR
Recommendation.
The cream floats to the top.


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## Trembling Hand (25 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Much of what I do is rule based trading. The hard work has been done with years of research. Now it's a matter of 'Just do it' which allows a lot of free time. Being relatively young I still strive to keep my brain reasonably active and still have a passion for the markets to stay in that field. Coaching is the perfect way, and the perfect call option.




There is a lot in that. At some point if you manage to make trading work you may find it takes up a small part of your time or any biz. Which is the dream but after a while its just not good for you to be idle. Further more the personality types that do succeed at things they aim for are not likely to be happy for long siting around on their ar$e or hitting a little white ball around.

It would be a natural thing to do - Teach, coach etc.

Or sit around in forums posting praise to yourself under different aliases - by the way where is Wavepicker


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## tech/a (25 February 2009)

Just want to point out that in my view there is a vast difference between a mentor and an educator.

Education can come from every/anywhere, some of the best I have ever received has come from sources that didnt intend to "educate".


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## tech/a (25 February 2009)

> I know, because I have had two people just this week ask to be taught like TH trades.




The thought did cross my mind as I read this that quite possibly if these people really questioned their motive it may well be that they want the *Profit* that TH generates and see his way of trading as the way to get it.

Teaching people to fish wont guarentee Marlin.

True of course for other methods that display excellent returns.


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## joe8489 (25 February 2009)

Thanks everyone, and nick, i appreciate your input 

I now have a clearer understanding of the rationale of educators after your posts, whilst i will always have a degree of skeptisism , i now have an more open mind. Your replies makes a lot of sense. 

Another question I have relates to the failure rate of traders?

The obvious question is why do so many fail when there is such an awareness of the importance of risk management, a trading plan, and trading psychology?

(should I start a new a new thread for this?)


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## Trembling Hand (25 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> The obvious question is why do so many fail when there is such an awareness of the importance of *risk management*, *a trading plan*, and trading psychology?




Because there is not. Or its not practised.


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## jersey10 (25 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> a) he has worked hard for it, sitting in front of monitors for 8,000 odd hours;




So he has only got 2000 hours to go and he should be ok 



Nick Radge said:


> I have had two people just this week ask to be taught like TH trades.




As a subscriber to the chartist i have contemplated a number of times the exact same thing with Nick, a private consultation that the chartist offers focussing on scalping / swing trading the SPI intraday.  I was even going to print out the Nothing to Something thread and take it with me and tell Nick i want to do this.  I was inspired by that thread of TH's on here.  I have spent probably no more than 200 hours on IB sim TRYING to do this and i'm rubbish.  Have turned $50000 into $46000 over 2 months. I have improved since i started and do think it is the type of trading that i prefer as i enjoy it and am persisting with it.
I suspect if i did approach Nick Radge with this request he would respond in a similar way to how Trembling Hand has responded numerous times when people have asked for his 'secret'.  That is, you have to do a lot of practice and evaluation and learn how the SPI behaves and the patterns that recur in it on an intraday timeframe.  Making it even harder to be taught from someone else is the fact that it is very discretionary trading which would make it impossible to back test.
The reason that i will go for a private consultation with The Chartist at sometime in the next few months is that i think i will learn a massive amount of useful information about intraday trading the SPI that will greatly assist my understanding of the SPI and how to trade the SPI in general as well as some positive expectancy intraday setups for the SPI.  This will then enable me to refine how i practice on the IB sim and will make the practice i do more effective.  Then all i have to do is clock up 10 000 hours before i go live


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## Trembling Hand (25 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> The obvious question is why do so many fail when there is such an awareness of the importance of risk management, a trading plan, and trading psychology?



And then even more importantly the three things you mentioned don't mean you will make money. More likely just lose it slower.:


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## Nick Radge (25 February 2009)

Risk management, like a entry/exit/trailing stop mechanisms, are all 'hard wired' technical attributes. They are easy to understand and in most cased replicate, although as TH explains, not the secret to success. The reason why many fail, in my humble opinion, is people unwilling to accept the journey of trading, in other words they place too much emphasis on a single trade, or a small sample of trades. One cannot determine the long term outcome of success from 2, 5, 10 or even 50 trades. A small sample of trades is prone to market nuances which are part and parcel of the journey but people are unwilling to trade through those nuances, instead wanting immediate profits. Hardly will a new trader accept a break even result after 10 trades, let alone 50. So at trades and nothing to show for it they divert into some different method that must be better...and around and around they go.

People do not realize that even the greatest traders actually have strings of losing months, even losing years. Bill Eckhardt, arguably one of the best traders has had 4 losing years in the last 20. Yet, each day, each week, each month and again year after year he stands up to the plate, takes the good trade with the bad trade. the good months with the bad months, the good years with the bad years, but intuitively knowing that because he creates a positive expectancy that he can't fail. 

That's where the 95% come unstuck.


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## nizar (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Risk management, like a entry/exit/trailing stop mechanisms, are all 'hard wired' technical attributes. They are easy to understand and in most cased replicate, although as TH explains, not the secret to success. The reason why many fail, in my humble opinion, is people unwilling to accept the journey of trading, in other words they place too much emphasis on a single trade, or a small sample of trades. One cannot determine the long term outcome of success from 2, 5, 10 or even 50 trades. A small sample of trades is prone to market nuances which are part and parcel of the journey but people are unwilling to trade through those nuances, instead wanting immediate profits. Hardly will a new trader accept a break even result after 10 trades, let alone 50. So at trades and nothing to show for it they divert into some different method that must be better...and around and around they go.
> 
> People do not realize that even the greatest traders actually have strings of losing months, even losing years. Bill Eckhardt, arguably one of the best traders has had 4 losing years in the last 20. Yet, each day, each week, each month and again year after year he stands up to the plate, takes the good trade with the bad trade. the good months with the bad months, the good years with the bad years, but intuitively knowing that because he creates a positive expectancy that he can't fail.
> 
> That's where the 95% come unstuck.




Great post Nick.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Risk management, like a entry/exit/trailing stop mechanisms, are all 'hard wired' technical attributes. They are easy to understand and in most cased replicate, although as TH explains, not the secret to success. The reason why many fail, in my humble opinion, is people unwilling to *accept the journey of trading*, in other words they place too much emphasis on a single trade, or a small sample of trades. One cannot determine the long term outcome of success from 2, 5, 10 or even 50 trades. A small sample of trades is prone to market nuances which are part and parcel of the journey but people are unwilling to trade through those nuances, instead wanting immediate profits. Hardly will a new trader accept a break even result after 10 trades, let alone 50. So at trades and nothing to show for it they divert into some different method that must be better...and around and around they go.
> 
> People do not realize that even the greatest traders actually have strings of losing months, even losing years. Bill Eckhardt, arguably one of the best traders has had 4 losing years in the last 20. Yet, each day, each week, each month and again year after year he stands up to the plate, takes the good trade with the bad trade. the good months with the bad months, the good years with the bad years, but intuitively knowing that because he creates a positive expectancy that he can't fail.
> 
> That's where the *95%* come unstuck.




Yes Nick, the journey is what it is all about. Not only the trading journey, but the trading knowledge journey that translates to skills and skill awareness much like the orienteerer that understands the map and the lie of the land.

Is 95% an official statistic?


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## theasxgorilla (26 February 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Is 95% an official statistic?




YES! 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10200&highlight=successful+traders+percent


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## Nick Radge (26 February 2009)

The only reference to 95% was from a survey done by Refco back in 1982 on futures accounts under $5000. It showed 95% failed and since then I think its become folk lore.


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## motorway (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> The only reference to 95% was from a survey done by Refco back in 1982 on futures accounts under $5000. It showed 95% failed and since then I think its become folk lore.




Like most things people think are relatively new 

It dates back to at least 1917

Don Guyon's One Way Pockets

Most good things are old
they only look new .





> The book is written by someone who worked for a brokerage house in 1917. He analysed the trading accounts of retail customers at the brokerage house and based on the mistakes they make he wrote this book under a pseudonym.
> 
> The author details his results in One Way Pockets. He found that 95% of them lost money overall and displayed the same trading pattern. They would enter a trade, it would show a small profit, and they would sell too early. Then seeing the stock leave them behind, buy back in at higher prices. They would hold on too long after the stock peaked. Ride it all the way back down to the bottom. Then finally they would capitulate and sell. That is most cases would become the perfect entry point for the next cycle up
> 
> ...




Even 

"The Game in Wallstreet"

makes a similar point in 1898...

motorway


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## nunthewiser (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> . I know, because I have had two people just this week ask to be taught like TH trades. He i snot seeking it out. People wanting that experience are seeking him out - again, a natural demand.
> 
> I ..





Hi nick 

 was my name mentioned too ?


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## MRC & Co (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> I have had two people just this week ask to be taught like TH trades.




ROLFMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## MRC & Co (26 February 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Hi nick
> 
> was my name mentioned too ?




Too funny!!!!!


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## nunthewiser (26 February 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Too funny!!!!!




 i reckon TH slipped nick a cupla bux to say that


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## tech/a (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> I know, because I have had two people just this week ask to be taught like TH trades.
> ...





I find this amazing!

That people want to learn how to punch in buy and sell orders like a boxer on ice!

And they'll pay for it.


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## MRC & Co (26 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> I find this amazing!
> 
> That people want to learn how to punch in buy and sell orders like a boxer on ice!
> 
> And they'll pay for it.




lol.

Yeh, on the PM note, I've been sent random PMs by multiple people asking me if they could ever be a good trader?  

WTF, how would I know.

Some of the Qs are seriously funny, we should start a thread about it.


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## Naked shorts (26 February 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Some of the Qs are seriously funny, we should start a thread about it.




Please do, I wanna see some of them


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## Trembling Hand (26 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> I find this amazing!




Why? you not interested in outlier days any more?


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## motorway (26 February 2009)

Some more
 on the 95%



> Bob Prechter:
> 
> More than 75 years ago, Don Guyon, the pseudonymous author of One Way Pockets, wanted to discover why his clients always lost money in a complete bull-bear cycle. It might be argued, he reasoned, that, at worst, they should have broken even, since at the end, prices were back to where they were at the start.
> 
> *He found that the answer lay in the clients' temporal orientation to the market's future. At the beginning of a bull market, he found all his clients were traders. At the top, they were all "investors." This is not only precisely the opposite of the correct orientation for making money, but also entirely natural for human beings and a key reason why the market repeatedly behaves as it does*.







> Hank Pruden:
> One report showed the following
> telltale results:
> • The average price at which each stock was bought was higher than
> ...




*The acquired confidence of the buyers seemed to have caused them to
buy extensively on the first major reaction from the extreme highs.*

2007 & early 2008



motorway


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## lindsayf (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Risk management, like a entry/exit/trailing stop mechanisms, are all 'hard wired' technical attributes. They are easy to understand and in most cased replicate, although as TH explains, not the secret to success. The reason why many fail, in my humble opinion, is people unwilling to accept the journey of trading, in other words they place too much emphasis on a single trade, or a small sample of trades. One cannot determine the long term outcome of success from 2, 5, 10 or even 50 trades. A small sample of trades is prone to market nuances which are part and parcel of the journey but people are unwilling to trade through those nuances, instead wanting immediate profits. Hardly will a new trader accept a break even result after 10 trades, let alone 50. So at trades and nothing to show for it they divert into some different method that must be better...and around and around they go.
> 
> People do not realize that even the greatest traders actually have strings of losing months, even losing years. Bill Eckhardt, arguably one of the best traders has had 4 losing years in the last 20. Yet, each day, each week, each month and again year after year he stands up to the plate, takes the good trade with the bad trade. the good months with the bad months, the good years with the bad years, but intuitively knowing that because he creates a positive expectancy that he can't fail.
> 
> That's where the 95% come unstuck.




so Nick..what would you advise is the minimum dataset to establish whether a method has a positive expectancy or not..do you look at 100+ consequitive trades...or more...can it be done without automating and back testing then?..your post  implies that anyone who trades with an element of discretion ( ie cant be automated) may be on a very very long road to find  + expectancy..especially as you suggest that it needs to be tested over varied market condtions..and persevered with through long losing periods...


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## Cartman (26 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> I find this amazing!
> 
> That people want to learn how to punch in buy and sell orders like a boxer on ice!
> 
> And they'll pay for it.





Haha ..... U r  a funny fella Tech ..........  

PS I know u were stirring ..... 

BUT ...

The ability to take trades ... and be happy to lose on a squillion of them to take the benefit of catching the "runner" is an artform most will probably never understand .............. the secret is .............. the old cliche .... "cut your losers quickly"  ................  still a work in progress for me Im *unhappy* to admit ..... but at least Im aware of the benefit of getting it right ..................  The old saying ..... "Little fish are sweet" has a great significance .......... IF ...... you (I) can work out how to a) Minimise losing trades .............. and b) Maximise "runners" .................. Gotta love Percentages (%%) ..... 

PS ...... TH ..... Be interested in your Win/Loss % (number of trades) relative to your Index Points gained .... on any "average" day ........... might be an interesting Stat for us mere mortals


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## tech/a (26 February 2009)

> PS I know u were stirring .....




Sprung!


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## Nick Radge (26 February 2009)

lindsayf,
Don't confuse validation of a sample with _the journey_ of trading. 100 trades - depending on variables, will probably be enough sample to validate a positive expectancy. But that is not what I'm saying. Probability Theory, not backtesting, will dictate a losing streak. How ever you choose to back test and use Monte Carlo, forward test, back test, in sample, out sample, blah blah blah, the end result is probability theory is the absolute answer that should be anticipated. It may never occur but being in readiness for it will allow you to be realistic. 

Many people on this forum promote in sample/ out sample testing. I think that's all bollocks. 


Understand WHY your system makes money
Understand, via probability theory, what can really go wrong

Then you have realistic outcomes to consider.

In sample/out sample is rubbish unless you need to rely on some form of optimization or curve fit to make a method work. To me that's a recipe for failure.

But, getting back to the question at hand, a sample of 100 trades may suggest 10 losses in a row, but probability theory will suggest 21 is possible. You need to go with expecting 21.

I'm not sure if this makes sense. Happy to try to clarify better.


----------



## tech/a (26 February 2009)

> Happy to try to clarify better.




The obvious question here is how do you apply (Physically---what formulas) to a 100 test case sample to derive figures like those you suggest you need?


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## MichaelD (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Firstly I'd say that if educators were not of use they wouldn't be in business.




Let me preface this reply with the statement that I believe you are both a successful trader and a successful educator (in my view an extreme rarity)...but...I strongly disagree with your point.

There are many, many examples of shoddy spruikers taking a fortune from the general public for valueless "education". The willingness of the general public to part with enormous sums of money appears in thread after thread on this forum.

$20,000 x 100 suckers - not a bad way to make a few years wages in a short space of time. After all, if it costs $20,000, reasons Joe or Jill Public, it MUST be "the" secret, and MUST be worth far more than a book priced at $35 or a CD priced at $500.


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## tech/a (26 February 2009)

MichaelD said:


> Let me preface this reply with the statement that I believe you are both a successful trader and a successful educator (in my view an extreme rarity)...but...I strongly disagree with your point.
> 
> There are many, many examples of shoddy spruikers taking a fortune from the general public for valueless "education". The willingness of the general public to part with enormous sums of money appears in thread after thread on this forum.
> 
> $20,000 x 100 suckers - not a bad way to make a few years wages in a short space of time. After all, if it costs $20,000, reasons Joe or Jill Public, it MUST be "the" secret, and MUST be worth far more than a book priced at $35 or a CD priced at $500.





Sure.

The same could be said for Mechanics,Tradesmen,Financial planners,Tour operators,Car Salesmen,Weight Reduction Programmes. The list just goes on.

The general public are their own worst enemy.
Fools and their money are easily parted---whats a fool doing with money in the first place--I say!

Simply learning due diligence FIRST will save you all sorts of stress in all aspects of life--let alone trading!
People just dont and often wont take responsibility for their own stupid actions! Its always someone elses fault---that double crossing sweet talking money grabbing salesguy!---whos REALLY at fault?


----------



## Bobby (26 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> Sprung!




Gee ' Tech --- have to give you a thumbs up for that reply


----------



## MichaelD (26 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> Simply learning due diligence FIRST will save you all sorts of stress in all aspects of life--let alone trading!




Agreed, but let's put up some scenarios to consider why this isn't necessarily so simple or practical;

You are on holidays interstate and you get a severe sore throat which threatens to spoil your holiday. You decide to consult a GP whom you haven't seen before. Do you do due diligence on the GP before seeing them? Do you check their qualifications? Do you quiz them on medical matters to test their bona fides before seeing them?

No.

You make certain presumptions about their competence based on the fact that they are holding themselves out to be a GP and you believe the regulatory system works.


Now consider this.

You are poor and live from day-to-day on a meagre subsidence wage. Suddenly, your rich great aunt dies and leaves you $1,000,000 in cash. You have no idea how to handle this amount of money, but you do have this vague idea that you'd better not waste it. You decide to consult a financial planner. After all, they are the experts and are in a regulated environment. They are in a nice suit and in a nice office. They have a nice car. They seem to know what they are talking about. You might even know a few friends who will vouch for how well they have done with this particular advisor.

Suddenly, you are heavily leveraged into the peak of a bull market, the market has just dropped 50% and there's this stockbroker on the phone screaming about "margin calls". You are broke.


People are not rational. They take all manner of short cuts in decision making. Mostly, these short cuts are suitable adaptations (assuming all GPs are competent). Sometimes they are not (assuming all financial advisers are competent).

Sure, we could perform due diligence on every decision we need to make, but nothing would ever get done as the decisions would take too long to make due to the research required.

Here's an interesting thought for you to ponder; humans evolved emotions to allow us to make rapid decisions when speed was essential (fear -> run away from sabre tooth tiger - versus consider risk of tiger in front of you -> oops, you've been eaten). Mostly, emotional decisions work, but when they don't, they fail spectacularly.


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## Trembling Hand (26 February 2009)

MichaelD said:


> Mostly, emotional decisions work, but when they don't, they fail spectacularly.




 Like it.


----------



## lindsayf (26 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> lindsayf,
> Don't confuse validation of a sample with _the journey_ of trading. 100 trades - depending on variables, will probably be enough sample to validate a positive expectancy. But that is not what I'm saying. Probability Theory, not backtesting, will dictate a losing streak. How ever you choose to back test and use Monte Carlo, forward test, back test, in sample, out sample, blah blah blah, the end result is probability theory is the absolute answer that should be anticipated. It may never occur but being in readiness for it will allow you to be realistic.
> 
> Many people on this forum promote in sample/ out sample testing. I think that's all bollocks.
> ...




Thanks for the reply Nick but I am not with you; it is my query that if 100 or 50 or whatever amount of trades will only validate a sample but not a method...how do you ever develop any confidence in how you trade..and if you tweak your method to supposedly improve it in some way, how do you know you are not simply data/curve fitting..which is a less than worthwhile thing to do I gather from what you are saying?  Bit confused here..thks


----------



## Cartman (26 February 2009)

MichaelD said:


> People are not rational. They take all manner of short cuts in decision making.
> 
> humans evolved emotions to allow us to make rapid decisions when speed was essential.
> 
> Mostly, emotional decisions work, but when they don't, they fail spectacularly.




 Very poignant post Michael -------- Did u have a 'light bulb' moment when the crap finally dropped off the branches, or was yr trading salvation slow and methodical?  ---------

Might make an interesting thread ----- The transition of a Trader from 'struggling' to 'successful' ---- and what was the catalyst for it.


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## gazelle (27 February 2009)

is it that WD Gann was apparently the guru of of wall street, reportedly taking $50m out of the financial markets (Present value) yet he has spent copious amounts of time writing about 20+ books on trading strategies ? 

And what 20+ books are you refering to ? Could you please list these books as I would be very interested in obtaining them ? Just for your interest you Turkey Gann released  6 - 7 books some of them are coded like TTTA so Turkeys like you are kept locked out from what he was doing . Only Gann had precision trading techniques and the full detail is outlined in The Ticker Interview if you could be bothered reading it  ?  And by the way he kept an office on Wall Street for 25 years and operating planes over this time and that was back in the 30s , a far cry from today . Ask yourself Turkey have you really reseached Gann ?


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## nunthewiser (27 February 2009)

Cartman said:


> Might make an interesting thread ----- The transition of a Trader from 'struggling' to 'successful' ---- and what was the catalyst for it.




MY catalyst was a succession of large losses and holding stocks that were getting deeper and deeper into the red .

a wise fella once told me to treat my investments /trades the same way i would my businesses (offshoots/employees/suppliers)... IF there not performing in the way intended to piss them off and move on . no tears , no hard words just a basic cold calculating monetary desicion ( unless ulterior motive involved re biz, which is another chapter as still classed as a gain and now im rambling ). 

not here to be a charity with any of my ventures in bizzness and when you can realize its not going to plan and cann it in the blink of an eye,and move onto the next, is the moment you can realize small losses are merely a means to get to the gains

look im no typist and i cant convey what i mean as well as all these other knowledgeable chaps but do know at the end of the day its just a numbers game and if treated as such without all the hooplah of being scared to take a few quick losses , one should survive just fine, maybe even make a buck

im just a simple ole nun from WA so what would i know about guru-ism


"Nip it in the bud " may have been the moral to the story perhaps


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## Bobby (27 February 2009)

Cartman said:


> from 'struggling' to 'successful' ---- and what was the catalyst for it.




 NO ! no no -   more Elliott Wave analysis


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## Cartman (27 February 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> MY catalyst was a succession of large losses and holding stocks that were getting deeper and deeper into the red .




Holding on to 'hope' until it becomes 'hopeless' is a great teacher eh Nun! ----- pretty sure most of us have been down that road once or twice 



Bobby said:


> Maybe no more Elliott Wave analysis





LOL ------   I already got into hot water on the EW thread Bob, ----  Reckon if punters looked at cycles rather than waves theyd be a lot more enlightened --------- there is only two waves  ----- Up and Down ---- how many cycles in each Wave?? ----- Unlimited!!


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## joe8489 (27 February 2009)

gazelle said:


> is it that WD Gann was apparently the guru of of wall street, reportedly taking $50m out of the financial markets (Present value) yet he has spent copious amounts of time writing about 20+ books on trading strategies ?
> 
> And what 20+ books are you refering to ? Could you please list these books as I would be very interested in obtaining them ? Just for your interest you Turkey Gann released  6 - 7 books some of them are coded like TTTA so Turkeys like you are kept locked out from what he was doing . Only Gann had precision trading techniques and the full detail is outlined in The Ticker Interview if you could be bothered reading it  ?  And by the way he kept an office on Wall Street for 25 years and operating planes over this time and that was back in the 30s , a far cry from today . Ask yourself Turkey have you really reseached Gann ?




ok, firstly, i love turkey, its my favourite


secondly, thanks for your insight. I also appreciate the enouraging tone of your response, has a warm fuzzy feel to it. 


thirdly, miss gazelle, a couple of ponts for you. Read closely and try and follow:

1.do you mind if i call you by the name of an animal? I will chose Monkey

2. So, Monkey, I stand corrected, it wasnt 20+ ,you;re right. I wrote that in the heat of the moment. So it was 7 books, or 6, or 5, whatever, did you understand my point? The point was that if someone is so proficient at trading and making lost of money, why would they spend a large part of their career writing about it and divulging their secrets? Seems like he spent alot of time writing books. Dr Alexander Elder , a reputable trader and author who wrote about trading pychology, stated in his book (and it was documented elsewhere) that he interviewed WD Gann's son back in early 90's and his son said that Gann died with no more than a $100K estate (still alot of money in todays terms) and that he made most of his cashflow through education. Now i am not sure if that is true or not , apparently it is, but i take everything with a pinch of salf, but noentheless it makes you beg the question, doesnt it Monkey??

3. Monkey, I never stated in any of my post that I have read his books or researched him. And why is researching a trader/educator/so called guru important in being able to pose a generic question about the merit of educators on a public forum, Monkey? Im not with you there?

4. The whole point of joining such a forum is to create discussion, generate interest and to learn about others' insights in the trading world. Which is what I am doing Monkey. (I am hoping there wont be other morons, sorry, monkeys like you who will pop up from under their rocks, and attempt to ruin the experience for new comers, becuase if that is the case, then i will be on my merry way).  I was never making a definitive statement about Gann, Monky, hence the number of question marks in my long-winded and verbose initial post (much like this one). Do you understand Monkey? But Nick R and others did address my cynisism and skeptisism - without anger or malice I might add - and I then replied back saying "why thank you, its cordially appreciated, I now have a more open mind". Is that ok for you Monkey?

5. Now, Monkey, you hungry? I have some lady finger banana's right here, let me feed them to you. Would be my pleasure

6. I am sorry if I touhed a nerve Monkey. I did sense much anger in your post and I hope you have calmed down now. I have a suggestion:

--- why dont you pick up one of Gann's books, maybe  try TTTTTTTTAAATATATATTTA by W.D Gann. (whatever that acronym means - i am not the enlightened one so I am not even going to try to attempt), take a nice stroll to the beach, sit down and wait for the a lunar eclipse to appear. You could be there a while, but it will be worth it. Then wait, keep waiting, I want you to wait for venus , mars and pluto to align. Then wait for 7 shooting stars, once this happens then the God Of Stars will tap you on the left shoulder 3 times, you MUST  gentley turn aroumd (dont look him in the directly in the eyes - whatever you do) and he will proceed to tell you when the SPI, HSI and DOW, will bottom. Once that happens, come back to this forum, tell us how you went and share with us if you are still an angry person, or I whether you are at peace with the stars.

All the breast, Monkey

Your friend, Turkey


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## GumbyLearner (27 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> ok, firstly, i love turkey, its my favourite
> 
> 
> secondly, thanks for your insight. I also appreciate the enouraging tone of your response, has a warm fuzzy feel to it.
> ...




What I want from any "guru" on this thread is how do the banks conduct due diligence on THEIR own books?


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## Trembling Hand (27 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> 1.do you mind if i call you by the name of an animal? I will chose Monkey
> 
> 5. Now, Monkey, you hungry? I have some lady finger banana's right here, let me feed them to you. Would be my pleasure




Ha ha hahahahhahahah!! 

And gazelle Jesus! Whats your prob :screwy:


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## Nick Radge (27 February 2009)

Yes, Michael, I stand corrected. I had not looked at it from that angle.


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## tech/a (27 February 2009)

MichaelD said:


> Agreed, but let's put up some scenarios to consider why this isn't necessarily so simple or practical;
> 
> You are on holidays interstate and you get a severe sore throat which threatens to spoil your holiday. You decide to consult a GP whom you haven't seen before. Do you do due diligence on the GP before seeing them? Do you check their qualifications? Do you quiz them on medical matters to test their bona fides before seeing them?
> 
> ...





This is a problem for everyone.
Even the best laid plans do go hay wire from time to time and sometimes through no fault of your own.
Your employer goes broke.
Your advisor has been ill advised.(Storm).
You see the wrong Doctor,or he is the right Doctor but gets it wrong.

But to the Topic
Personally I really do think that there is the opportunity to evaluate and have enough time and information to make an informed decision with regard to *Trading gurus and trading courses*.
Failure to do so is really your fault.


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## dutchie (27 February 2009)

I am finally a trade guru.

A guru in the sense that I know what is a bad trade. It has taken me a long time and many attempted trades to 

come to this position.

The trick is to reverse everything you might of done.

They say that 95% of all traders fail - therefore I came to the conclusion that if all these failed traders 

reversed every decision that they thought they where going to do then they would all be successful.

I'll give you an example - if a newbie trader thought "I think BHP is going up, I should buy 1000" - his trading 

method should be to go 1000 short!

It stands to reason if 95% of traders fail then if they reverse there initial ideas (go short if they intially 

thought long, stay in if they thought to sell, sell if they thought to stay in  and vice versa) - you get the 

picture, then they must end up being successful.

A dart board can also be very helpful.

I also initially had a vey bad system. I would trade this course, trade this advisor, trade this guru, trade this 

article, trade this recommendation, trade this course, trade this system, trade this boook, trade this market and 

trade this stock/option/future/xxxx. Unfortunately my win expectancy was only 5% - i.e. 95% bad trades.

The moral to the story then is:

1. that there are no gurus, courses etc that a newbie should buy as there is a 95% chance of failure and lost 

capital.

2. Do your own research and find the good 5% before spending any money - be sure before you leap, spend some time 

on the internet, forums, question other successful traders - don't be impatient (to lose your money).

3. Research, research, research - you can get an awful lot of information about trading without spending a cent 

(other than a computer and internet connection).

4. Newbies should read 1. again.


Good research one and all (especially you newbies)

Cheers

dutchie


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## rossw (27 February 2009)

joe8489, hahahaha, very funny and clever post


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## Naked shorts (27 February 2009)

I think that trading courses really have nothing to stand on. All the information you need is already out there on the internet. The reason why they are still in business must be because most people dont already know that.

@ nunthewiser: Good post, I to can agree with you that losing real money is a big catalyst. I am not a consistently profitable trader yet, but after losing real money, and reviewing what happened, it became apparent how consistently profitable trading is accomplished and *why*.

p.s. I am now back to trading a demo account, creating a consistently profitable system.


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## tech/a (27 February 2009)

So pretty soon we will have Doctors/Airline Pilots and Tradesmen fully trained over the Net.
*
Great*


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## Ashsaege (27 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> ok, firstly, i love turkey, its my favourite
> 
> 
> secondly, thanks for your insight. I also appreciate the enouraging tone of your response, has a warm fuzzy feel to it.
> ...




Gann shame... my guru is Gandalf the grey. He is both wise and knowledgeable.


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## gazelle (27 February 2009)

Good to see a bit of backbone Turkey . Perhaps we could both sit on the beach and wait for Neptune and Pluto to align although we might be waiting a while as it takes Pluto 21 years to change signs . So in the meantime while we are patiently waiting for that perfect trade to present itself ,I could bring some green bananas to munch on and you could bring a wire rack and a basting brush to freshen up with , what a perfect combination all under the glow of a full moon . 

I havent got a problem with some educators , although there are some horror stories , SITM are expensive and require setting up  bar charts and 360 Deg charts by hand which does put alot of people off as many are conditioned to using computer generated charts but this affects the geometric scaling between time and price co ordinates , theres a fine balance there . the first two introductory courses are expensive for what they provide and this is all laid out in profits and commodities , the video series is expensive and David has made some very accurate calls which is one thing but on top of that he has a very mechanically based system modelled of Ganns and he has a good understanding of mkt structure and other things , hes expensive and sitm do flog their courses but at the end of the day its up to the individual and what style of trading they want to learn , indicator based , Gann based , Tea Leave based . 

School of Gann Article :  Gann never got on with his son and his son didn’t believe in astrology. His son John was born in 1915 with Merury, Saturn, Pluto conjunction all square Gann’s natal Saturn. They would have argued all the time and that’s why John discredited his father. His son used to sit in Gann’s office making paper planes and tossing them out the window. Therefore, Gann didn’t believe his son warranted receiving the knowledge he had gained over 50 years of researching, therefore all the knowledge went to his grave except for the small amount he passed on through coded works. 

His third wife died around 1996. Gann died in 1955. She was 35 and Gann was around 65 when they were married. A close friend of mine visited her and she stated “one day Gann went to the races and she received a phone call late one night saying could you come and pick up your husband as we fear for his life, he has made so much money it is bursting out of his pockets”. Some people say he died broke. I don’t believe this to be true, as taxes were well over 80% in the 40’s and 50’s and he most likely left his money in Cuba. You can’t have an office on Wall Street for 40 years employing 9 staff, own two planes and be earning no money. Gann was quoted in a number of newspapers that he used the planes to inspect crops; this is highly unlikely as he new in advance what the market was doing. This is proven in “Tunnel thru the air” were he forecast the exact top and price of cotton on the 8th September 1927 at 24.40 (page 196), also check page 208 of “How to make profits in Commodities” for the exact time and price. He also forecast that the stock exchange would close due to panic selling on the 3rd October 1931, the low was on the 5th October and the market rallied from 85.51 to a high of 119.15 on the 9th November 1931 as predicted in “Tunnel thru the air” on page 321 to 323. The book was published on the 9th May 1927. It was possible that the planes were a tax deduction and he flew the money he made to South American bank account.


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## CanOz (27 February 2009)

This has got to be the fastest destruction of what WAS potentially the most enlightening thread i have seen for a while.

Thanks for the great contributions you knuckle heads!

CanOz


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## Nick Radge (27 February 2009)

> I think that trading courses really have nothing to stand on. All the information you need is already out there on the internet.




There is also a lot of crap and drivel.


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## joe8489 (27 February 2009)

CanOz said:


> This has got to be the fastest destruction of what WAS potentially the most enlightening thread i have seen for a while.
> 
> CanOz




fear not CanOz, I have made only a handful of posts so I am just getting warmed up. There will be many others so just give it a chance.

Madam Gazelle, good post, quite fascinating, didnt know all of those facts about Gann, but thanks for the post - and a much better tone. 

yes, I am currently doing SITM, and have just gone through the first module. I am finding it worthwhile for the kind of trader I would like to be so I see it as something I will most likely pursure, but like many say, one must do their double D's (due diligence) before making any material decision else that person is the fool if they ultimately find its a waste of $ and dont find it worthwhile.

So here we are, the destruction of some cyber tension that (un)fortunately  dissapated

See you round W.D Gazelle

CanOz who you calling knucklehead? wanna start me? yeah, you know it. 

Joe Fox


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## Cartman (27 February 2009)

CanOz said:


> This has got to be the fastest destruction of what WAS potentially the most enlightening thread i have seen for a while.
> 
> Thanks for the great contributions you knuckle heads!
> 
> CanOz




Haha .... Dont worry about it Cana ---- Its the nature of Internet forums --- maybe I'm just a bit left of centre, but i like the threads where there is a bit of egotistical manipulative socially contradictory "i'm better than u r" kind of stuff ----  a lot better than watching 'home and away' lol -----  

ps i actually dont mind home and away, but dont tell anyone ----- my credibility will be shot !! ---------- hang about --- i have NO credibility   lol -----


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## tech/a (27 February 2009)

> I am currently doing SITM, and have just gone through the first module




You know Ive been on Trading forums for 15 yrs and SITM has been around far longer than that.

You'd think by now that with the many 1000s of people who have parted with their hard earned to take part in SITM---you'd have a plethora of posts and threads from the many satisfied customers showing examples of what can be learnt and what can be achieved.

Perhaps then the silence is a true indication.


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## Trembling Hand (27 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> You know Ive been on Trading forums for 15 yrs and SITM has been around far longer than that.



What is it


----------



## Porper (27 February 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> I think that trading courses really have nothing to stand on. All the information you need is already out there on the internet. The reason why they are still in business must be because most people dont already know that.




Well, not really.

Agreed, most of what you need to know is out there on the net.Problem is beginners don't know the good from the bad.It's all fine and dandy  looking back and saying I didn't need to do that course or subscribe to that service.

In reality we need a direction. In my experience, which admittedly isn't years and years, a good mentor, trading group or whatever service you choose is imperative to success, or even survival.

Also you need to want to do it, because you get that many kicks in the gut you need the willpower to bounce back and to persevere.

You can either struggle on by yourself going from one indicator to another, read every book you can lay your hands on, try Elliot Wave, Gann and the other zillion ways to trade or you can choose what is known to be a good trading course or mentor and find direction.

An easy decision I would think.


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## CanOz (27 February 2009)

Cartman said:


> ps i actually dont mind home and away, but dont tell anyone ----- my credibility will be shot !! ---------- hang about --- i have NO credibility   lol -----





LOL @ Cartman....funny


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## CanOz (27 February 2009)

joe8489 said:


> CanOz who you calling knucklehead? wanna start me? yeah, you know it.
> 
> Joe Fox




If the shoe fits?

I was quite impressed with the start of the thread, and we had some good contributions until you and Afro Deer started at each other. Lets see if we can get back on track.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## tech/a (27 February 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> What is it




Very lucrative.


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## Joe Blow (27 February 2009)

Can we please refrain from name calling and personal attacks and get this thread back on track?

Nothing worse than seeing a potentially valuable thread descend into chaos through unnecessary conflict.

Please treat others with respect even if you disagree with them.

Thank you all for your co-operation.


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## sails (27 February 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> What is it




Safety In The Market - Gann course.


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## Nick Radge (28 February 2009)

lindsayf said:


> Thanks for the reply Nick but I am not with you; it is my query that if 100 or 50 or whatever amount of trades will only validate a sample but not a method...how do you ever develop any confidence in how you trade..and if you tweak your method to supposedly improve it in some way, how do you know you are not simply data/curve fitting..which is a less than worthwhile thing to do I gather from what you are saying?  Bit confused here..thks




Sorry, let me try it another way. What I'm talking about is _*expectations*_ rather than expectancy. I think that a major element of success, in any endeavor, is shrugging off adversity, and so it is with trading. What newbies attempt to do in times of difficulty is go looking for something else that seems to work, whether that be another indicator, chart pattern or technique. What they need to understand is that nothing works well all of the time. They need to find something that works reasonably well all of the time then manage expectations that the bad comes with the good. Chances are that if they keep chopping and changing - The Beginners Cycle as I call it, then they will tend to always find the bad rather than allowing the good to come on naturally.

As a case in point, in the last 5-months my account is probably about +12% as the market went into this sideways range. Its a damn grind at the moment. Every trade is a small loss or break even with the occasional win. I haven't changed a thing, nor will I. I do know, unreservedly, that this range will break and trends will resume and with trends, up or down, 'easier' profits will also return. I know without doubt that times like Jan 08 through Sep 08 where I made 158% will return. 

It's just the good with the bad. 

Managing expectations. 

Understanding the journey.

That, I believe, is the difference between success and failure.


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## Naked shorts (28 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> So pretty soon we will have Doctors/Airline Pilots and Tradesmen fully trained over the Net.
> *
> Great*




Can you get practical experience over the net with ANY of those jobs?
Can you get practical experience over the net if you are learning to trade?


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## IFocus (28 February 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> I think that trading courses really have nothing to stand on. All the information you need is already out there on the internet. The reason why they are still in business must be because most people dont already know that.




Its pretty much true that all the info is on the net but as Nick points out there are plenty of distractions.

Problem being is what is it you need to know and in what order.

And what is the method I use to change my behavior from punter to pro? 

Moving from punter to some sort of profitable trader requires a change in cognitive behavior but that will vary from person to person depending on emotional construct. 

I know I know psychobabble, rubbish its just a matter of finding a method that works and applying it to the right market conditions isnt it?

I think the over priced trading education sector is fertile ground for reaping money without or with little complaint while relieving clients of large sums of money. 

The waves of new clients that wash through the system seems never ending.

The seminars Nick ran (last year?) was probably one of the best I seen for content and attended by many of the traders here in the West that I know have been around for a while. 

It didn't cost a fortune but it did focus on the must haves.


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## tech/a (28 February 2009)

> It didn't cost a fortune but it did focus on the must haves




Id go as far as saying that those who knew it was on and didnt/couldnt attend have probably seen a very high cost of *non *attendance!


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## IFocus (28 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> Id go as far as saying that those who knew it was on and didnt/couldnt attend have probably seen a very high cost of *non *attendance!




Good point tech, lets say I do a trading course that been attended by 20,000 in Oz and pay $10K to $20K(it must be good so many have completed it).

Trading is easy so I blow up two to three accounts of $10K (if I am lucky know some have blown $100K plus)

I am in the hole for $40K plus and I still cannot trade markets successfully.

That was pretty much my story after 2 to 3 years yep very expensive not only in money but also time. 

Took me around the 5th to 6th year to make it back to break even.


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## Wysiwyg (28 February 2009)

Being self taught, I have never attended a trading course.Now though, I would love to take a course and be able to understand what is being taught.To understand the language would have to be more valuable than being a raw recruit with all the terminology confusing.

I have probably missed alot of stuff that would be like instant ah hahs at a trading course.


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## a5e0i (28 February 2009)

Some of us need money to trade with. Like Ifocus says, it takes many years to get it right and to then just break even. By then knowledge is extensive, but in learning the account has shrunk. So teaching and getting paid for it will give - A kind of start up account, if you will, to get going again. Perhaps people aren't as affluent as we think they, particularly newcomers and need the cash coming in giving them extra to invest after all the bills are paid. Just a thought.


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## lindsayf (2 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Sorry, let me try it another way. What I'm talking about is _*expectations*_ rather than expectancy. I think that a major element of success, in any endeavor, is shrugging off adversity, and so it is with trading. What newbies attempt to do in times of difficulty is go looking for something else that seems to work, whether that be another indicator, chart pattern or technique. What they need to understand is that nothing works well all of the time. They need to find something that works reasonably well all of the time then manage expectations that the bad comes with the good. Chances are that if they keep chopping and changing - The Beginners Cycle as I call it, then they will tend to always find the bad rather than allowing the good to come on naturally.
> 
> As a case in point, in the last 5-months my account is probably about +12% as the market went into this sideways range. Its a damn grind at the moment. Every trade is a small loss or break even with the occasional win. I haven't changed a thing, nor will I. I do know, unreservedly, that this range will break and trends will resume and with trends, up or down, 'easier' profits will also return. I know without doubt that times like Jan 08 through Sep 08 where I made 158% will return.
> 
> ...




I find this response very valuable, as are many in this forum..thanks Nick and all.


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## gazelle (2 March 2009)

The preliminary courses through sitm are expensive but unfortunately one is required to complete these studies before moving on to the video series it is a pre requisite and an ingenious marketing strategy at the same time . I did go through this process and I wasnt so much dissapointed at the cost even though it was expensive it did provide a good foundation to extend on , but for quality and quantity it is pricey . Bill McLarenn is  quite comprehensive  but you will have to spend considerable time going over his material to pick it up , its certainly worth the cost . Or you could purchase the Commodities course and Ganns original books , this will require setting up manual charts and backtracking through Ganns trades , soyabeans cotton etc . It depends on your technical orientation and what path you choose to take . Its not so much about predicting a date and a price level with the expectation of being proven correct on both factors , Gann could do this and he has proven so . Gaining an appreciation and a practical application of his techniques will provide you with indicative turning dates and potential price levels where you might  expect a possible change in trend , much like any form of analysis there are several factors that are taken into consideration before an  decision can be made . Gann provides different levels of exposure through his work and he intentionally makes mistakes to keep the student on track especially with his Astrological Letters . its coded material like TTTA and his work with elipses . This is Natural Law and the cause is known before the street is aware of it ( Ticker Int 1909 )  Astronomers and Astrologers to this day with the aid of computers calculators and advanced modelling techniques havent  fully revealed what Gann was doing . They have come close but the man was a genius , perhaps he had divine intervention .


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## Naked shorts (3 March 2009)

gazelle said:


> Astronomers and Astrologers to this day with the aid of computers calculators and advanced modelling techniques havent  fully revealed what Gann was doing . They have come close but the man was a genius , perhaps he had divine intervention .




Have they made a movie about him yet? His story sounds mysterious and captivating.


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## Bobby (3 March 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> Have they made a movie about him yet? His story sounds mysterious and captivating.




Yep it sure would make a great BS artist story


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## Bobby (4 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> LOL ------   I already got into hot water on the EW thread Bob, ----  Reckon if punters looked at cycles rather than waves theyd be a lot more enlightened --------- there is only two waves  ----- Up and Down ---- how many cycles in each Wave?? ----- Unlimited!!




Sorry Cartman I missed your post earlier .
Yep EW was one of the worst roads I ever took , energy & time spend on this drivel  plus money lost !


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## Trembling Hand (4 March 2009)

joe8489 said:


> thanks gazelle, appreciate you taking the time to write about your experience
> 
> The following is certainly not intended to be a plug,
> 
> ...





Bloody hell these dudes are a JOKE.

Nick off until you have traded then come back and show us.

Walk the walk because ya talk is just talk.


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## joe8489 (4 March 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody hell these dudes are a JOKE.
> 
> Nick off until you have traded then come back and show us.
> 
> Walk the walk because ya talk is just talk.




thanks TH, appreciate the encouragement , you are a top bloke


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## Timmy (4 March 2009)

joe8489 said:


> thanks gazelle, appreciate you taking the time to write about your experience
> 
> The following is certainly not intended to be a plug,
> 
> ...





Hey Joe – you started this thread on Feb. 25, it’s now March 3 –took 7 days to get to what looks like spam to me.


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## joe8489 (4 March 2009)

Timmy said:


> Hey Joe – you started this thread on Feb. 25, it’s now March 3 –took 7 days to get to what looks like spam to me.




thanks Timmy, I saw your initial post in size 8 font, i appreciate you changing it to size 16, i can now see it clearly

ok, so i am seeing a pattern here in the nature of the replies to this post, i thought these forums were fairly relaxed and people could just blabber on about what they want , when they want etc, provided it relates to trading / investing in some capacity?

i had no idea so many would be uptight. I will stop posting until i make a real sitm trades??? you guys come across a little hearsh for new posters, give me a break for f*** sake


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## joe8489 (4 March 2009)

some feedback on how i should be phrasing my posts would be good, so they dont come across like spam, albiet unintentiionally

im merely trying to get some views on sitm and on people's experience with them

ive seen many a post on various other educators , some strongly advocating them, and some doing the opposite, but no mention of SPAM anywhere in those threads, how is this any different ??


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## Timmy (4 March 2009)

joe8489 said:


> some feedback on how i should be phrasing my posts would be good, so they dont come across like spam, albiet unintentiionally




This post contains the ASF spam policy, have a read.


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## joe8489 (4 March 2009)

Timmy said:


> This post contains the ASF spam policy, have a read.




oh ok, thats more constructive, s**t that sounds like me in that post, i must admit , its my first time on kind of thread, so i am not aware of guidelines and protocol. I can assure you that im not being 'bogus', i am being genuine about being a first time attendee of a course and as such would like to hear some genuine views, specifically on 'them'. Yes, i have start this thread but i got generic answerrs with regards to educators and nothing specific about the course providers in question..

i am not sure how else i should be articulating this??

anyway... thanks for the link, made sense


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## brty (4 March 2009)

Hi,

I first read the SITM course in 1991. A friend had forked out over $15k for it. This friend of mine had taken over $1m out of the market in the late '80's trading commodities. 

After gaining this education, his trading went backwards. He has spent years looking for the perfect trades, when all the stars line up, and when he thinks he finds them, gives them a little more room if they go against him.

If you really need education on 'how to trade' spend a few weeks reading on the net, come up with something that seems viable to you, test it, trade it on a tiny scale, practise it, refine it, test it more, hone your skills.

If you really are determined to find "the secret" from a trading guru, then go to the nearest Red Cross/Salvation Army office and give them all your money, because in the long term you will feel the money was better spent.

brty


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## Naked shorts (4 March 2009)

Any one else noticed the recent increase in spam artists to ASF? I knew voting for ASF in that, best online stock market forum was a bad idea.


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## Porper (4 March 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> Any one else noticed the recent increase in spam artists to ASF? I knew voting for ASF in that, best online stock market forum was a bad idea.




As any forum grows it is going to attract more spammers, difficult to stop it until a mod sees the post or a member reports it.

So Hotcopper or sharescene any better.........I think not, not by a mile.


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## Joe Blow (4 March 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> Any one else noticed the recent increase in spam artists to ASF? I knew voting for ASF in that, best online stock market forum was a bad idea.




The moderators and I have definitely noticed and we will continue to remove spam as quickly as we possibly can after becoming aware of it.

We really appreciate the assistance ASF members provide by reporting suspected spam posts or threads. This helps us pinpoint and deal with spam much faster than we would be able to on our own.


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## tech/a (4 March 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> Any one else noticed the recent increase in spam artists to ASF? *I knew voting for ASF in that, best online stock market forum was a bad idea*.




Piffle!!


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