# VSA Chart Analysis Discussion Thread



## tech/a

Post your charts here for VSA discussion and try your analysis here.
We can watch the following days and see how it pans out!

Include Chart Code with the chart Posted.
Have a go yourself.

Everyone welcome.


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## Billyb

I feel if this stock breaks it's major support around $1.50 then it could keep going down with it's trend possibly to around $1.30 (next support), however if it holds then it'll bounce back up. Given the number of weak bars (see chart), I think a good shorting opportunity may be near. However, there is evidence of accumulation in the background around Early august time, so still room to be cautious.


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## tech/a

> I am so used to buying mainly breakouts. So that is often clear when to enter and often there is no overhead resistance to worry about.
> 
> When I look to enter on a down wave on, say a minor selling climax with positive volume indications, what are the best signs for me to look for to determine if price will THEN be able to push through the resistance to the left?
> 
> I guess I am so used to entering above resistance that I haven't thought to much about it before. Any time I'd approach new resistance previously, I would just tighten my stop. But in terms of pushing up through resistance I'm not so sure.
> 
> One thing I can think of is that pushing through the resistance is more likely if the stock shows little effort on the decline (no supply).




I guess there are two parts to this maybe both parts weren't meant as a question but worthy of discussion.
The following chart covers a little more than your question but I hope answers a lot of what you need to be looking for.

To end off a question for chartists applying their analysis.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*








*BILLY*
Yes nice analysis and I concur
Notice the gap away on some volume from support at $1.61/2 ish
I suggest $1.33 to be down side target if its breached.


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## 5oclock

TECH looking at the last chart, the 3 up bars are supported by high volume ( bullish ). Next 2 bars are down bars on low volume ( indicating upside strength ). The next 2 bars I am not so sure about. Next bar is an up bar on low volume?Final bar also up bar but close in middle on high vol , sign of weakness?


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## 5oclock

The last bar must be supply , again weakness. I would lift stop up to break even cause if price comes back down through support trade is a loss. I be abit clearer with the next bar.


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## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> Post your charts here for VSA discussion and try your analysis here.
> We can watch the following days and see how it pans out!




Not a real money expense with WEC so I will give it a go. From what I can gather the bar today is suggesting there is support for WEC around the $1.80 mark. The previous bar opened high and closed on its low but todays bar opened higher than yesterdays low and closed on its high today. I found this action via an AFL code that the name 'Karthik' created. He suggests this is a sign of strength. Also the volume is above the 50 day MA.

For a real time experiment I will buy on tomorrows open with a stop loss at $1.67 and a take profit on further VSA developments or if resistance is significant.

p.s. the secret formula for peeps & whisperers.


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## tminus

Wysiwyg said:


> I found this action via an AFL code that the name 'Karthik' created.



Would you be able to share a link to the AFL code, I have been to his website but it has been dead for sometime, and I could not find links to the code, seems like they were taken down.
Thanks


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## captain black

tminus said:


> Would you be able to share a link to the AFL code, I have been to his website but it has been dead for sometime, and I could not find links to the code, seems like they were taken down.
> Thanks




There's copies of Karthik's code in the Amibroker VSA yahoo group files section along with several pdf files explaining VSA and Wyckoff principles. I use a modified version to trade K200 and DAX futures.

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Amibroker-VSA/


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## captain black

A quick comment about Karthik's VSA or VPA as it's called. It's not designed to replicate the Tradeguider software, that would be silly and in his notes Karthik specifically states this. DO NOT take the signals like you would take Buy and Sell signals. All the signals do is alert you to a possible setup. 

I found a lot of useful info. in Tradeguider's Youtube presentations. It's mostly about the Tradeguider software itself, but read between the lines in some of the low risk/high probability setups, match them to what you see in Karthik's AFL and work from there. I only trade the DAX and Korean Futures with VSA so can't comment on it's usefulness for stocks.

The Amibroker VSA yahoo group has some great reading in the files section as well. I found Gavin's videos on Youtube switched on the light for me but there's some great background stuff in the Yahoo Group's PDF's as well.


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## tminus

captain black said:


> There's copies of Karthik's code
> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Amibroker-VSA/




Thanks

This is a question in regards to extreme volume. Who is behind it? it can't be regular traders as they wouldn't have the funds, it can't be smart money because they don't buy or sell in extreme volumes. Is it other investment companies or superannuation funds?

How would smart money react when this occurs, if it is a large sell order (I assume) like the one below , if they are in the process of accumulation would they dump all their holdings, as there is too much volume to absorb. 

Also the market makers how do they deal with such a large sell order, how do they find buyers, do they do this by increasing the price prior to the execution order, like below. 
DGX(US) 9/9/11 Friday


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## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> Not a real money expense with WEC so I will give it a go. From what I can gather the bar today is suggesting there is support for WEC around the $1.80 mark. The previous bar opened high and closed on its low but todays bar opened higher than yesterdays low and closed on its high today.
> 
> For a real time experiment I will buy on tomorrows open with a stop loss at $1.67 and a take profit on further VSA developments or if resistance is significant.
> 
> p.s. the secret formula for peeps & whisperers.



WEC had 5000 units available at $1.865 so hypothetically hold them.

Buy 5000 units @ $1.865
Stop Loss @ $1.67
Take Profit @ Some Stage :


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## tech/a

Just a word of warning on outside code.
This code popped up very quickly on Indian sites.

*The code is flawed in much of its design*.

Unfortunately these guys didnt and still dont understand that much of the signals are *developed over a number of bars not just a single bar* which will give you very false signals as well as the odd correct signal.

*If you use this code you will find yourself struggling to make sence of signals and price action.*

I cant see the point in trying to understand a trading method using incorrect/code and information.

To show the Tradeguider Chart on WEC youll notice *NO SIGNAL* Where Wysiwyg has one.

CLICK TO EXPAND.


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## captain black

tech/a said:


> Just a word of warning on outside code.
> This code popped up very quickly on Indian sites.
> 
> *The code is flawed in much of its design*.
> 
> Unfortunately these guys didnt and still dont understand that much of the signals are *developed over a number of bars not just a single bar* which will give you very false signals as well as the odd correct signal.
> 
> *If you use this code you will find yourself struggling to make sence of signals and price action.*
> 
> I cant see the point in trying to understand a trading method using incorrect/code and information.
> 
> To show the Tradeguider Chart on WEC youll notice *NO SIGNAL* Where Wysiwyg has one.




I agree, however the great thing about using code that is fully disclosed such as the Amibroker code is that you can modify it so that you can make sense of the signals and price action. Learning what is wrong with the code is also a great lesson.


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## tech/a

So how do you do that when you have no idea if a signal is a correct one or not?

Its code from another user its not endorsed by Amibroker.
A user who is not versed in VSA---Thinks he is.


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## captain black

tech/a said:


> Unfortunately these guys didnt and still dont understand that much of the signals are *developed over a number of bars not just a single bar* which will give you very false signals as well as the odd correct signal.




I should add that the code does reference previous bars in a number of it's signals. Some are good, others not so, but as mentioned before, it's easy to adjust and modify.


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## captain black

tech/a said:


> So how do you do that when you have no idea if a signal is a correct one or not?
> 
> Its code from another user its not endorsed by Amibroker.
> A user who is not versed in VSA---Thinks he is.




Sure, but it's publically available code to be used as a starting point for anyone interested in learning about VSA, as is the Amibroker VSA yahoo group. Anyone interested in learning and applying VSA techniques is free to use it and adjust it as they need, like I've done.


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## tech/a

captain black said:


> Sure, but it's publically available code to be used as a starting point for anyone interested in learning about VSA, as is the Amibroker VSA yahoo group. Anyone interested in learning and applying VSA techniques is free to use it and adjust it as they need, like I've done.




*Hmm*

I want to play golf so I go to someone who thinks he knows how to play like Tiger Woods,Hes written a book and Shows some grips and stances which are similar to Tigers but not the same---he suggests you could play around with it if it doesnt work for you.

He also puts outs some clubs to help you play golf.
They too are similar to Tigers but I note some dont work at all infact he suggests you use a putter while at the bar---Tiger knows you dont use a putter or any club at the bar---there isnt a stroke to play.

But if it doesnt help your golf then play around with it as the advice is publically available and Free.

Personally I'd start with the Real deal.
VSA is Master the Markets and thats readily available FREE.
Software is rightly so---not free and under $1k for any serious VSA chartist.(EOD)


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## Wysiwyg

captain black said:


> A quick comment about Karthik's VSA or VPA as it's called. It's not designed to replicate the Tradeguider software, that would be silly and in his notes Karthik specifically states this.



Does anyone know the exact VSA definitions for the bars? I notice stopping volume and up thrust is about right in the code but the others are a bit loose in their interpretation.


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## captain black

tech/a said:


> Personally I'd start with the Real deal.




If that's the path you choose and it works for you then that's great. I have a background in open source software and Unix/Linux operating systems and prefer to understand how the underlying code works. The beauty of Open Source software is that you're able to do that. I carry that philosophy into my trading software as well. I want to see the underlying code and why it generates signals and modify that to suit my uses.

I didn't wish to hijack this thread with a debate over the benefits of Tradeguider versus other VSA software, each to their own. If people want something that works out of the box then Tradeguider will suit them. If they enjoy having the ability to modify software to suit different markets then Karthik's or TCoates VSA provides a great starting point to do this.


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## samanne1

Nothing against  VSA ...

** please correct me if I am wrong ***

If the book is free, then it is open to interpretation. In the book it makes statements like *high volume* and *ultra high volume* and *over last few bars*. 

What is the (mathematical) definition of these terms? Unless proven and consistent is open to what the user thinks and your definition might be different to mine.

Is high volume 2 times timer than average volume? or 3 times higher? or 2 time higher than volume of last 2 bar?

Don't answer that... its just an example!

The program (however) would be using some algorithm to determine this and therefore would some sort of consistent way of determining this.

If someone wants to use Amibroker and has a script that works with it. Why can't they use it! The onus is on the user - akin to getting a new toy and then not bothering the read the instructions and finding you forgot to put in batteries.  The individual that uses it should have some sort of basic understanding of the tools they use and software. 

if those who developed the Amibroker code had the "code" (without reverse engineering)  to determine "high volume" (and similar statement) then I am sure the signals would be a lot closer.

... back to topic


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## Gringotts Bank

Thomasz has always said that anything - absolutely anything - can be coded into AB.  I'm sure the Trader Guider signals can be replicated exactly in AB, if you've got the talent.  

Captain, how about it?!


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## tech/a

captain black said:


> If that's the path you choose and it works for you then that's great. I have a background in open source software and Unix/Linux operating systems and prefer to understand how the underlying code works. The beauty of Open Source software is that you're able to do that. I carry that philosophy into my trading software as well. I want to see the underlying code and why it generates signals and modify that to suit my uses.
> 
> I didn't wish to hijack this thread with a debate over the benefits of Tradeguider versus other VSA software, each to their own. If people want something that works out of the box then Tradeguider will suit them. If they enjoy having the ability to modify software to suit different markets then Karthik's or TCoates VSA provides a great starting point to do this.




Lets put it this way.
In the exercise that WYSIWYG has put up for discussion *WEC*

There is *NO VSA TRADE!*
So you may as well have taken any bar on any chart and called it a trade.--RANDOM.

VSA works on ALL markets and ALL instruments.If you want to play with it then fine but don't put it on this thread start another.
If we start with Incorrect analysis whats the point of discussion---whats the point of the WEC trade?



> I want to see the underlying code and why it generates signals and modify that to suit my uses.




Start with the correct code and work back. Why start with incorrect stuff?
If you or anyone modifies it then don't call it VSA. All it does is bastardize a method which if it gets lost in "Theory and modification" loses its significance as a trading tool.

People have enough trouble grasping the real stuff let alone some interpretation.
(Clearly they didn't "get it"---those that attempted to copy it)


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## captain black

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thomasz has always said that anything - absolutely anything - can be coded into AB.  I'm sure the Trader Guider signals can be replicated exactly in AB, if you've got the talent.
> 
> Captain, how about it?!






Sorry, but I've no interest in replicating Tradeguider. My only interest in Karthik and TCoates VSA formulas over the last couple of years is modifying them to work in a couple of particular futures markets... which I'd better pay a bit more attention to rather than this thread


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## captain black

tech/a said:


> People have enough trouble grasping the real stuff let alone some interpretation.




No probs, I'm happy to get back to trading and leave others to discuss Tradeguider.


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## tech/a

captain black said:


> No probs, I'm happy to get back to trading and leave others to discuss Tradeguider.




Captain.
*Dont get me wrong* I want you to keep in the discussion ---- *Im not a disciple *as such of Tradeguider

The discussion is VSA.----not Tradeguider or the others (specifically).
If you have specifics with relation to Price action --Volume and range
everyone including myself would be happy to hear and discuss them.

A great deal of information is available on VSA signals which are continuation and reversal both setups and actual signals.

But not a lot on reading a chart as you go bar by bar ---which as you know is very handy in trading with VSA.
All are Algorithms and again you'd know that not all signals will conform to the written algo but still be a valid signal---and as such *(I think this is your point)* worthy of discussion. I too have my own additions not found in tradeguider but definately reading of Volume and spread.

But in the case of WEC we need to know why its a signal---now the suggestion WYsy put up just doesnt conform and as such I wouldnt trade it.

Maybe we dont have to re invent the wheel just put Michelins on it.

Im sure your observations will be interesting---so please share.


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## captain black

tech/a said:


> Captain.
> *Dont get me wrong* I want you to keep in the discussion ---- *Im not a disciple *as such of Tradeguider
> 
> The discussion is VSA.----not Tradeguider or the others (specifically).
> If you have specifics with relation to Price action --Volume and range
> everyone including myself would be happy to hear and discuss them.
> 
> A great deal of information is available on VSA signals which are continuation and reversal both setups and actual signals.
> 
> But not a lot on reading a chart as you go bar by bar ---which as you know is very handy in trading with VSA.
> All are Algorithms and again you'd know that not all signals will conform to the written algo but still be a valid signal---and as such *(I think this is your point)* worthy of discussion. I too have my own additions not found in tradeguider but definately reading of Volume and spread.
> 
> But in the case of WEC we need to know why its a signal---now the suggestion WYsy put up just doesnt conform and as such I wouldnt trade it.
> 
> Maybe we dont have to re invent the wheel just put Michelins on it.
> 
> Im sure your observations will be interesting---so please share.




No probs Tech. I don't trade  ASX stocks with VSA as I have 2 mechanical systems I use for stocks but FWIW I don't see any reason to take a trade in WEC either. I look for clusters of signals to pick up trend reversals in futures and looking at the WEC chart we are in a congestion zone. I don't see any obvious signals. Something has to be very obvious before I'll take the trade. In one of Gavin's videos I remember him saying that you only need one or two good low risk trades a day. I wait for them to come along in either the Korean or DAX futures. There's too many false signals in congestion zones, unless of course price has been trending and then you get a tight congestion zone.

I start looking for signals in the DAX futures after the physical market opens at 4:30pm SA time (The first hour of futures is too illiquid most of the time). I'm happy to come back and post if I spot something interesting.


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## tech/a

> I'm happy to come back and post if I spot something interesting.




Even better why not post a chart with something interesting on it even if its a DAX chart (Regardless of timeframe).

There is a perfect example today in the SPI of *ONLY TAKE SIGNALS WITH THE TREND*. Ive been short since just after 10am (4100) Watching carefully now 4042 trailing.
Still tanking! This is my one trade for the day Captain.

Click to expand


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## captain black

tech/a said:


> Even better why not post a chart with something interesting on it even if its a DAX chart (Regardless of timeframe).




Ok, I'll see what I can do, haven't posted a chart on here before, really only jump in to help people with Amibroker problems but I'll try to find some instructions.



tech/a said:


> There is a perfect example today in the SPI of *ONLY TAKE SIGNALS WITH THE TREND*. Ive been short since just after 10am (4100) Watching carefully now 4042 trailing.
> Still tanking! This is my one trade for the day Captain.




It's a text book low risk short setup. 
Looking at a 1-minute chart of the SPI (these are all SA times) there's a nice uptrend beginning at around 9:40. A test of that at 9:49, then a reversal signal at 10:17. An aggresive trader may have taken that reversal. I prefer to wait for the trend to establish, then a test, then resumption of the trend. The test came at a number of bars between 10:47 and 10:52. The low volume bar at 10:52 following the double top at 4100 would have been my entry. That low volume bar is one of the keys. There was an attempt to push prices higher on the previous bar but this low volume bar at 10:52 says no-one is interested in pushing prices higher. There's the chart screaming out to Short. You're already in a downtrend so risk is low. Your stop only needs to be a few ticks away. Perfect. The downtrend is still intact so no reason to close yet.

I don't trade the SPI as I prefer the Korean futures so it's all hindsight on my part but hopefully it may give a few interested people an insight into a low risk setup.


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## captain black

captain black said:


> The low volume bar at 10:52 following the double top at 4100 would have been my entry.




To save confusion I should call the "double top at 4100" a test of resistance at 4100 as it wasn't technically a test of the "top" for the day.


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## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> I found this action via an AFL code that the name 'Karthik' created. He suggests this is a sign of strength. Also the volume is above the 50 day MA.



*The indication was the low volume, wide ranging down bar test. Followed by an up bar closing high on above average volume* suggesting supply depleting and the bulls back in control. The trade was looking good alongside the Index rising this morning but soon as the Index (over 1% down now) was obviously tanking the supply came rushing in to exit.   

The WEC trade is a valid volume-spread trade and is still open as long as support holds above $1.75.


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## tech/a

Wysiwyg said:


> *The indication was the low volume, wide ranging down bar test. Followed by an up bar closing high on above average volume* suggesting supply depleting and the bulls back in control. The trade was looking good alongside the Index rising this morning but soon as the Index (over 1% down now) was obviously tanking the supply came rushing in to exit.
> 
> The WEC trade is a valid volume-spread trade and is still open as long as support holds above $1.75.




Seriously this is *NOT* a test its simply a low volume down bar,followed by an average (well slightly above average) up bar---all pretty common in a trading range.

Click to enlarge


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## tminus

tech/a said:


> View attachment 44484



Is that bottom chart volume? does tradeguider do something else with the volume, when I looked at SPI for Futures for Sep'11 in IB's TWS volume looks different.


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## tech/a

Yes it is Volume

Mine is a 1 min chart yours looks a different timeframe ?


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## Wysiwyg

Okay no worries with that interpretation Tech/A. Waiting for someone, anyone to place a right hand side of the chart trade using volume/spread analysis on the ASX.


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## tech/a

Wysiwyg said:


> Okay no worries with that interpretation Tech/A. Waiting for someone, anyone to place a right hand side of the chart trade using volume/spread analysis on the ASX.




Away you go then.


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## captain black

Wysiwyg said:


> Okay no worries with that interpretation Tech/A. Waiting for someone, anyone to place a right hand side of the chart trade using volume/spread analysis on the ASX.




I don't use VSA on the ASX so I'll have to leave that to Tech. From memory there's some videos in the Tradeguider youtube page that shows live trading with the ES if that's of any interest.


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## tminus

tech/a said:


> Yes it is Volume
> 
> Mine is a 1 min chart yours looks a different timeframe ?




The one I posted earlier was a 2 min chart, here is a 1 minute still there is a big difference. The volume on yours is spread out evenly, on mine there are a few large spikes with little in between.


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## tech/a

Yes thats a huge difference.
My data is e signal.


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## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> Away you go then.



Too scared now.


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## Billyb

samanne1 said:


> Nothing against  VSA ...
> 
> ** please correct me if I am wrong ***
> 
> If the book is free, then it is open to interpretation. In the book it makes statements like *high volume* and *ultra high volume* and *over last few bars*.
> 
> What is the (mathematical) definition of these terms? Unless proven and consistent is open to what the user thinks and your definition might be different to mine.
> 
> Is high volume 2 times timer than average volume? or 3 times higher? or 2 time higher than volume of last 2 bar?
> 
> Don't answer that... its just an example!
> 
> The program (however) would be using some algorithm to determine this and therefore would some sort of consistent way of determining this.
> 
> ... back to topic




VSA is not a precise science, it's an art. You can't define 'extreme volume', that's what the computer code does, but no software is going to be able to take the rest of the chart action fully into context even though that's probably more important



tminus said:


> The one I posted earlier was a 2 min chart, here is a 1 minute still there is a big difference. The volume on yours is spread out evenly, on mine there are a few large spikes with little in between.




I could be wrong here as I don't have the Tradeguider software but I think perhaps the software does indeed do something to the volume -  I think extreme volumes are 'evened out' a bit so that all the other volume bars on the chart remains readable. Otherwise, if extreme volumes were left as is, the rest of the volume bars become unreadable and too small.


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## tech/a

Billyb said:


> I could be wrong here as I don't have the Tradeguider software but I think perhaps the software does indeed do something to the volume -  I think extreme volumes are 'evened out' a bit so that all the other volume bars on the chart remains readable. Otherwise, if extreme volumes were left as is, the rest of the volume bars become unreadable and too small.




No that's not the case
Data is from the data supplier.
To tamper with it is to distort VSA
The difference will be from the data supplier.


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## adt100

I thought that TG use relative volume readings as well. I'm sure I read something along those lines been a while since I used it though


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## Wysiwyg

> What is the (mathematical) definition of these terms? Unless proven and consistent is open to what the user thinks and your definition might be different to mine.



Well Tradeguider software has inbuilt algorithms for bar indications but I don't think they are open to the public otherwise no one would buy the software. There are some obvious interpretations which are coded in Amibroker such as stopping volume which is a wide ranging down bar with high volume.


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## tech/a

adt100 said:


> I thought that TG use relative volume readings as well. I'm sure I read something along those lines been a while since I used it though




Yes your right but I believe only for FOREX.

You can read about it here

http://marketmanipulation-whatyouneedtoknow.blogspot.com/


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## tminus

tech/a said:


> Yes thats a huge difference.
> My data is e signal.



Tech/A would it be possible to post a screenshot of the volume of the same period from eSignals software. 
Thanks


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## tech/a

tminus said:


> Tech/A would it be possible to post a screenshot of the volume of the same period from eSignals software.
> Thanks




Not from me as I only feed it to Tradeguider I dont use Esignals software.
Wheres your data from?


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## tminus

tech/a said:


> Not from me as I only feed it to Tradeguider I dont use Esignals software.
> Wheres your data from?




Mine is from IB, SNFE SPI Sept11.

I have Esignal for US stocks when I got the volume for the SPY index US SP500 all the volume bars were nearly the same  it was pointless. 
I don't have E-signal for Aus stocks as it was expensive.


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## tech/a

Hmm
I have IB but dont use their Data.
esignal index volume is useless as you say.
But as far as Im aware the Futures are Trades not volume of trades.
So there maybe 100 trades in a minute but we dont know if 500 contracts were turned over.
The Tradeguider argument is that the big players will do far more trades at an area of 
of interest than any other.
Personally id like to see number of contracts traded.
If there are only 10 trades and 500 contracts that is more advantageous to know than just the number of trades down.

However 
Even so I trade the SPI and FTSE and find VSA of great benifit even counting trades ------ go figure--


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## tech/a

Although I missed this trade today As was looking at a very flat Sept Contract and lost my Alzheimer pills!

This is how the "VSA" absolutely nailed this trade---whether the volume was spot or not this is how it looked.


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## tech/a

And again.




Got stopped on that one


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## samanne1

Billyb said:


> VSA is not a precise science, it's an art. You can't define 'extreme volume', that's what the computer code does, but no software is going to be able to take the rest of the chart action fully into context even though that's probably more important




OK. But if you then say....

some-condition = wide-range-bar and high-volume

then some-condition will evaluate differently depending on your the values of wide-range-bar and high-volume. 

if you use atr to determine a wide-range-bar or some other function then you might get 2 different results. Hell, even ATR(2) may give different result to ATR(1), ATR(10) or ???? So unless "we"  knew something more about the "insert software here", and given the defintions are somewhat subjective, you cannot say the Amibroker code is necessarily incorrect.

(If all you wanted to do was find wide ranging days in Amibroker compared with trade guider then you could get closer matches in terms of signals presented.)

Now if the Amibroker code presented a signal that trade guider does not, what is it about the bar (or prev. bars) that invalidate the signal. The corresponding code in Amibroker could then be adjusted accordingly.

Myself, coming from an mathematical background, always have issues with non-mathematical definitions, as it can lead to different interpretations depending on the reader.

PS. the only thing that I could think of re signals in one software not present in another would be 

a) data padding
b) use of AI
c) data provider


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## Mistagear

tech/a said:


> Hmm
> I have IB but dont use their Data.
> esignal index volume is useless as you say.
> But as far as Im aware the Futures are Trades not volume of trades.
> So there maybe 100 trades in a minute but we dont know if 500 contracts were turned over.
> The Tradeguider argument is that the big players will do far more trades at an area of
> of interest than any other.
> Personally id like to see number of contracts traded.
> If there are only 10 trades and 500 contracts that is more advantageous to know than just the number of trades down




Two chart captures, both ES 9/12 today, showing 150 tick and 150 volume from 8am today. Obviously the difference in the number of bars due to tick order size.

Cheers,


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## Mistagear

AQA is an interesting chart for me from a VSA viewpoint,

Have been watching for a possible long entry since the drop and volume spike in early August. Since then there has been considerable volumes being transacted and no further declines in the downtrend which has dominated since April.
From the first circle (from left) high volume on the low resulted in a rally back towards the lower side of the window and a fail again. 

The sell-off was at the obvious point but the feature which attracted me was the relative lack of volume after that fail as price dropped  and made a higher low. This suggested lack of supply had lifted from the prior $5 level to $5.50.

Next feature is the next high late August, near the top of the gap, I see this as a lack of demand power at this stage. The volume not heavy so there was not huge supply yet price failed.. low demand.

Price dropped to the 3rd circle 6/9/11, this shows volume increasing as price fell towards the eventual pivot. This shows demand very strong at the lower levels despite supply increasing during a negative market phase. I take this as increasing demand and price once again made a higher low.

During this last fortnight, price rose from the last pivot on reasonably light volume and again stalled through lack of demand at the higher level. Market sentiment and lack of demand at the higher level brought out fresh supply. Note how again demand arrived to once again support price when supply pushed down in numbers.

That brings us to this week, Monday and Wednesday both supply similar range, Wednesday went lower but on less volume.. that is telling me supply side is weakening that was possibly confirmed today... because high volume today did not achieve follow through.
I'm suggesting this stock is close to a wide range up bar, possibly on news that will reverse sentiment resulting in an uptrend. Next time up through $6.15ish, I give it a shot at eventual $7.50 top of structure.

Cheers, M


----------



## Billyb

Nice explanation Mistergear. The last bar's quite narrow for the amount of volume (compare to 23/8), IMO that could be a weak bar but we wouldn't know till the next couple of bars. At the moment it's in a trading range so too early to trade safely IMO. My gut feeling is that this stocks needs to churn more in this trading range, with a bit of testing, before it's ready to go up (if it does go up).

A lot of ASX stocks look the same since Aug 7, I reckon they'll all behave similarly for a while.

My analysis atteached.


----------



## skc

Would someone be kind enough to do an analysis on SIP? My fundamental hat says it has reached a top...


----------



## tech/a

Concur with BB's analysis on AQA. I think it's churning and volumes aren't high or low enough to draw any conclusions.
SIP will have a look a bit later
Mistagear
I'm sure the charts from E signal are trades / timeframe on forex not contracts
I'm not sure about index or other futures.
I'll ask Esignal and Tradeguider the question and see if we cant clear it up.


----------



## rx2

adt100 said:


> I thought that TG use relative volume readings as well. I'm sure I read something along those lines been a while since I used it though




I am just reading the book myself and yes they it state it uses relative volume. You can see a good example of relative volumes If you go to page 80 and look at the chart. In the chart they show you an up-thrust and have classified the volume as "Ultra High" - which is interesting comparing it the rest of the volumes. Obviously the relativity is being based on some defined period.


----------



## tech/a

Some SIP analysis

*Click to expand*

*

*


----------



## Boggo

My volume and close (Premium Data) for yesterday is different to yours tech/a ?

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a

Yes I know.

I know the answer as well!

This is my Live Esignal feed and Live Tradeguider charting.
It doesnt up date EOD as quickly as Premium data or my Just Data feed which is
connected to metastock.(I'll download and check that.)
The analysis stays the same though.


----------



## tech/a

Yes.
Just Data mirrors yours.
With a nasty pivot point reversal on intraday data at hand.

Still doesnt alter the analysis.Other than the consolidation looks more likely.
Volume is poor which is a positive sign in this case---little supply.


----------



## Mistagear

Update on the AQA chart.

The gap open is an entry signal for me in this particular situation (on the back of previous bar analysis). 608c
Initial stop on entry was equal to a close of the previous bar's open @ 580c, theory of this is .. if price closes back down at the open of the high volume bar which I rated as demand, with price having now gapped up, a close lower would signal the analysis incorrect and therefore an exit required.
Short term target on this swing is a window 652c/659c. 
Reason is past S/R level already shown on previous chart and the current swing volatility of this stock.
Risk 28c, reward target 44c/51c. Not quite the ratio I look for so is slightly outside my plan
Will monitor as we approach the short term target to gauge whether to take some or all of the trade off the table.
The positive close today 635c, has seen me lift the initial stop to B/E 610c trigger. 


VSA aspects today.
Gap open then the first lot of open trades took price to 620c, washed out new supply back to around 11am where a couple of vol spikes did not push price lower, another few minutes for the market to digest the now exhausted supply resulted in price starting to move up again. Strength shown with shallow retraces  to 12o'clock then a demand push through  supply with price to 633. Demand stalled (low vol) around 12.15pm. Bit of a stand-off until 2pm where supply had a poke at the demand and found strength in the form of high volume short range down bars. 
After that the only push down bars were lower volume that the demand push up bars, to me that is continuation of the new trend is the least resistance, price continues.

Will keep this going until the trade has cancelled itself.
Criticism on any aspect welcome.

Cheers, M


----------



## tech/a

*AQA*

Couldn't see a trade in it.
Nice move to B/E
Now it can do as it pleases without risk.


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> Yes.
> Just Data mirrors yours.
> With a nasty pivot point reversal on intraday data at hand.
> 
> Still doesnt alter the analysis.Other than the consolidation looks more likely.
> Volume is poor which is a positive sign in this case---little supply.




Thanks. With SIP a reasonable value range imo is ~58-62c. So a consolidation there makes sense. Anything higher requires much optimistic assumptions which are probably not warranted in the current market.

Interesting to see if my 2-minute fundamental valuation pans out on the chart or not.


----------



## Mistagear

Hi 

AQA trade disqualified itself today. The negative sentiment across the market plus the volume patterns following the lower open convinced me to scratch the trade.
Closed @625c 12.40pm bar.
Reasons.
Lower open and failure to recover,
Lack of demand at the 10.45am, (1st circle)
supply evident on the 11.25am bar (2nd circle).
continued lack of demand 12.05pm and volume associate dw price decay (3rd circle).
The 12.30 bar see supply into the support, then 12.35pm bar again showd no desire to push through supply, weight of evidence against the trade...exit (4th circle).

Towards the close you can see there waw some demand prepared to stand in-front of the dump of supply, some of this probably due to the gap closing on the daily as well as the round number level adding to the demand. Supply ran over the top of supply too easily for me to risk catching the falling knife.
Currently have a buy stop above the market to cover an instant reversal of price tomorrow, however I favour waiting for the fresh supply to wash out of the stock.

This was proven to be a poor example of Volume analysis on my part.

Cheers, M


----------



## Billyb

Mistagear said:


> Hi
> This was proven to be a poor example of Volume analysis on my part.
> 
> Cheers, M




VSA analysis was fine IMO, I think it was just a risky trade - trading anything long right before resistance (even if it is a gap up) is always gonna carry some risk


----------



## Mistagear

Billyb said:


> VSA analysis was fine IMO, I think it was just a risky trade - trading anything long right before resistance (even if it is a gap up) is always gonna carry some risk




Hi Billy,
I dont especially consider risk a factor in this case, risk/reward was (I thought) realistic, as per my normal ratio and therefore no different to any other trade I take. Money management controlled the risk and actually made profit on the trade.
The reason I called it a failure of analysis can be seen on this revised chart.

The previous chart (posted15/9/11) concentrated mainly on reasons to enter, the next post was trade management subject matter.
Some additional background on why I call it a failure of analysis contained in the following chart, centred on expectation of achieving the nominated target in the risk/reward calculation 
I estimated the amount of supply towards the first target (nominated at $6.50) would not present sufficient resistance to reverse direction before the target. This was based on past price and volume action within the zone.

Late July showed abundant supply in the $6.70 region, not as much below that. 
The last rise originating 23/8 from a swing bottom similar in volume and starting point to this most recent one, made the $6.50 price on relatively low supply.
You can say was on low demand, but the feature I was looking at was the low supply at the top of the swing and limited  chase lower as price fell away..
This was the reason I assumed low resistance would repeat . 
Additional volume on the 15th then gap open and price advance on 16th led me to believe price would continue to target.
On the chart I marked a 3 wave line where I suspected price might track.

The reversal open and sell down on the heaviest supply day since 8th August was very much unexpected, based on all my previous price and volume analysis.
That is the where the failure lies.

Cheers, M


----------



## tech/a

M/G
Don't know if this will be helpful but I look for the following when assessing a trade triggered in consolidation.

(1) Extreme volume as in high
OR
(2) Extreme volume as in low.

If there is neither then chances are it will remain in consolidation.
It's where these extremes occur that hint of what's coming.

The only low risk trade I see on this chart is a position trade at the bar breaking well low of the now obvious consolidation.The extreme of volume day.
The rest I didn't and still don't see a trade.

I'll see if I can find a working example--- tied up most of the day though and an early start


----------



## Mistagear

tech/a said:


> M/G
> Don't know if this will be helpful but I look for the following when assessing a trade triggered in consolidation.
> 
> (1) Extreme volume as in high
> OR
> (2) Extreme volume as in low.
> 
> If there is neither then chances are it will remain in consolidation.
> It's where these extremes occur that hint of what's coming.
> 
> The only low risk trade I see on this chart is a position trade at the bar breaking well low of the now obvious consolidation.The extreme of volume day.
> The rest I didn't and still don't see a trade.
> 
> I'll see if I can find a working example--- tied up most of the day though and an early start




Tech/a,

I understand your statement, in fact the only criteria I scan for on a daily basis (for the last couple of years ) is extreme low and extreme high of volume. 
(Volume 70%> 50MA and Volume 70%< 50MA with some minimum levels on av vol to filter out illiquid stocks).

 Like you, extreme low volume events command considerable respect in my trading.

Resulting from above scan I did trade the price extreme you mentioned and took the trade off when price reached the 2x ATR target created from the signal day, 9th Aug
Since then, the consolidation has shown some signs of a possible Wyckoff Creek forming. 
My first post for this chart prior to it gapping up, I had on watch for an approx 2x ATR thrust lower with an immediate reversal. 
I normally look for an extreme vol event signalling supply exhaustion and had hoped to show the set-up develop as example of VSA in progress. 
Whilst the set-up I had hoped for did not eventuate, the following day when price was opening higher, I joined the buyers at open with the possibility this was a "Jump Up" out of the creek.
Sure this is normally after greater accumulation across the lows which was not as evident in this case. Perhaps the fact that obvious accumulation has not occurred as yet may have something to do with how price was pushed back down as decisively as it was. If there is some operator conducting a campaign, the stock jumping early would not be in his favour and therefore he would need to add supply to suppress price again.

I appreciate your continued attempts to help traders like myself by highlighting your volume methods and happy to accept your critiques on trades I post.

Cheers, M


----------



## tech/a

This is the 5 min SPI.

This is a Common reversal seen on most charts.
Worth looking for.


Infact there is one right now on the chart at 3918
Indicating a reversal here into close.


----------



## tech/a

That one failed.


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> This is the 5 min SPI.
> 
> This is a Common reversal seen on most charts.
> Worth looking for.
> 
> Infact there is one right now on the chart at 3918
> Indicating a reversal here into close.




Didn't work. 2 out of 3 ain't bad I guess :


----------



## tech/a

Like everything they are a setup.
I find them low risk with good R/R


----------



## sammy84

Tech

Mind giving me your option on LLC? 

To me it looks like stopping volume occurring at decent area of support.

Click to expand


----------



## tech/a

*SAMMY*

A little technical forensics.

While you have a strong case for some short term support
Its certainly clear on the 60min chart.---BUT notice all the *RED* indicators weakness
in the background!
As you can see by the weekly chart ---I feel this maybe short lived.

So going forward I would suggest some up side of approx $1.50 ish if that
before a resumption to the downside.While this trade is probably there its not one that I would trade. There hasn't been any signs of resuming strength other than this daily bar--of late.


----------



## Billyb

Agree with Tech, might just add a couple of cents


that last day is indeed a strength bar but you wouldn't even consider a long position yet because it really is just one isolated bar. VSA like all analysis is not about forecasting it's about skewing probability in our favour. You would have to wait for a lot more confirmation before you could take a low risk/high probability entry. But more important is the overall market trend, which is clearly down, so taking a long position is pretty risky.


----------



## sammy84

tech/a said:


> *SAMMY*
> 
> A little technical forensics.
> 
> While you have a strong case for some short term support
> Its certainly clear on the 60min chart.---BUT notice all the *RED* indicators weakness
> in the background!
> As you can see by the weekly chart ---I feel this maybe short lived.
> 
> So going forward I would suggest some up side of approx $1.50 ish if that
> before a resumption to the downside.While this trade is probably there its not one that I would trade. There hasn't been any signs of resuming strength other than this daily bar--of late.




Thanks Tech.

 Good learning points there. You also show the importance of have intraday data to tell a properly analyse. Wasn't interested in trading this so much. Need some more confluence of patterns and the index before I would consider a counter trend trade.


----------



## tech/a

And here it is once again.
This is a 1 minute chart followed by a 5 min chart which confirms the reversal with another bar pattern.*SPI*

CLICK TO EXPAND







*What do you think *should be considered at the RIGHT hand edge of the page?


----------



## joea

Hi.
For those people interested in VSA, Lauren Snedeker  has just given a webinar on "How I learned VSA - A Beginners Point of View" Part 1. A Part 2 is coming on 5th October.
I watched a recording.
from Tradeguider.
Cheers joea


----------



## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> And here it is once again.
> This is a 1 minute chart followed by a 5 min chart which confirms the reversal with another bar pattern.*SPI*
> 
> CLICK TO EXPAND
> 
> View attachment 44721
> 
> 
> View attachment 44720
> 
> 
> *What do you think *should be considered at the RIGHT hand edge of the page?




Sell short
Although there was a clear reversal in the 1 minute chart, looking further back there is resistance at the current level and the bars closing in the  middle looks like a short term sign of weakness with supply present.

?


----------



## tech/a

Was a short term trade was / is all over in 25 minutes.
What am I missing Jeff?


----------



## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> Was a short term trade was / is all over in 25 minutes.
> What am I missing Jeff?



 You are missing the fact that I was late to the party by about 3 years and am now trying to catch up and rectify.

Would be interested in seeing where this went and what your analysis of it was prior. 
Keep the charts coming, there is a whole lot to learn here.


----------



## tech/a

mr. jeff said:


> You are missing the fact that I was late to the party by about 3 years and am now trying to catch up and rectify.
> 
> Would be interested in seeing where this went and what your analysis of it was prior.
> Keep the charts coming, there is a whole lot to learn here.




While not strictly VSA related there is a fair few interesting charts on the SPI thread.(Day Trading Futures)
Will keep up the VSA stuff.


----------



## pavilion103

No pressure Tech  but certainly keen on some more charts! (I know you're a busy man)


----------



## mr. jeff

Can anyone offer some insight into setting up a decent scan using VSA to pick up stocks. I'm using standalone EOD with reuters data.
I can perform a metastock list scan but it comes up with pretty average results and seems to me that I may have either incorrect expectations or I am still severely ignorant in using tradeguider software. Probably both. Anyone with settings, techniques most appreciated.

Cheers!


----------



## tech/a

mr. jeff said:


> Can anyone offer some insight into setting up a decent scan using VSA to pick up stocks. I'm using standalone EOD with reuters data.
> I can perform a metastock list scan but it comes up with pretty average results and seems to me that I may have either incorrect expectations or I am still severely ignorant in using tradeguider software. Probably both. Anyone with settings, techniques most appreciated.
> 
> Cheers!




Ill answer later.
Bit busy

May require a phone call.


----------



## mr. jeff

Watching and waiting... Deep Yellow showing signs of recovery with decreased selling volume and potential change of trend.




Not quite entry time in my mind.

Thoughts ?


----------



## tech/a

mr. jeff said:


> Watching and waiting... Deep Yellow showing signs of recovery with decreased selling volume and potential change of trend.
> 
> View attachment 45992
> 
> 
> Not quite entry time in my mind.
> 
> Thoughts ?




Jeff DYL

For me a buy anywhere near this low which has been tested multiple times would be a low risk trade.
See from these lows a 50% move is quite likely without altering the long term view of DYL.
_But a fall below support would be significant._


Can you tell me what your trying to search for?
VSA is a road map rather than a specific signal--mind you there are some singular signals which you could look at trading as a stand alone.

Even if you post a chart or so with the setup your interested in.


----------



## mr. jeff

I have spent more time mucking around with it after your question asking what am I looking for made me realize that all I was scanning for was "strength". That could be about 1000 manifestations.

Pretty average theory really !

I am wanting to scan for bullish breaks of bearish patterns or low volume pullbacks in bullish moves to get into established strength. Will follow with charts when I have a decent example!

Don't know if the VSA scanner is able to look for particular patterns or if it just looks for signs of strength in the last x number of bars... ?


----------



## rnr

mr. jeff said:


> Can anyone offer some insight into setting up a decent scan using VSA to pick up stocks. I'm using standalone EOD with reuters data.
> I can perform a metastock list scan but it comes up with pretty average results and seems to me that I may have either incorrect expectations or I am still severely ignorant in using tradeguider software. Probably both. Anyone with settings, techniques most appreciated.
> 
> Cheers!




Hi mr. jeff,

This could give you a list of stocks to monitor in your favourites.



		Code:
	

C1:=L<Ref(LLV(L,25),-1);
C2:=C>=L+(0.25*(H-L));
C3:=Sum(V>=Mov(V,14,S)*1.15,5)>1;
C4:=Sum((H-L)>=Mov(H-L,14,S)*1.15,5)>0;
C1*C2*C3*C4


It will also give some signals on the way down but that seems to be par for the course.

Attach it as an indicator to see if it meets your needs.

rnr


----------



## rnr

Just a couple of adjustments to the previous code posted.



		Code:
	

C1:=L<Ref(LLV(L,25),-1);
C2:=C>=L+(0.10*(H-L));
C3:=Sum(V>=Mov(V,14,S)*1.15,5)>1;
C4:=Sum((H-L)>=Mov(H-L,14,S)*1.15,5)>0;
C5:=RSI(C,9)<30;
C1*C2*C3*C4*C5


----------



## mr. jeff

this is the sort of thing I am looking for. I managed to get TradeGuider EOD to pick up returning signs of strength which is handy using an indicator search, so will see how they finds pan out.



cheers, JEff.


----------



## Sutekh

Here goes,




There are two obvious volume spikes, the first on the 19/12/11 and the second on the 06/03/12.

I know I am a real novice to VSA, but the first spike in volume seems like an accumulation.  There was a huge volume but prices were kept tight.

The second volume spike is seen with a large gap up, a very large price spread for the day and finally closing close to the day's low.  Again, just my beginner's comments, but is this an up-thrust?  I notice that this move also happened after some big (good) news.

The following day also, has larger than normal volume, another large spread and closes in the middle.  So two huge volume days (effort) for next to no result.  The final two bars have lower volume and fairly flat price spreads.

To me it seems that the large amount of buying/demand on the first spike has been sold at the later high volume bars.  Do you think this is a strong sign of weakness?  Or does the second-to-last bar; a down day on lower volume, indicate a successful test?

Any comments?  Thanks!


----------



## mr. jeff

Fair enough, but then who is absorbing all that selling volume ? And notice that all selling is being taken up in the same range of price. So whoever sells is selling into support at this level.


----------



## tech/a

Sutekh said:


> Here goes,
> 
> View attachment 46397
> 
> 
> There are two obvious volume spikes, the first on the 19/12/11 and the second on the 06/03/12.
> 
> I know I am a real novice to VSA, but the first spike in volume seems like an accumulation.  There was a huge volume but prices were kept tight.
> 
> The second volume spike is seen with a large gap up, a very large price spread for the day and finally closing close to the day's low.  Again, just my beginner's comments, but is this an up-thrust?  I notice that this move also happened after some big (good) news.
> 
> The following day also, has larger than normal volume, another large spread and closes in the middle.  So two huge volume days (effort) for next to no result.  The final two bars have lower volume and fairly flat price spreads.
> 
> To me it seems that the large amount of buying/demand on the first spike has been sold at the later high volume bars.  Do you think this is a strong sign of weakness?  Or does the second-to-last bar; a down day on lower volume, indicate a successful test?
> 
> Any comments?  Thanks!




The first is exhaustion of supply.
The second is an exhaustion of demand


----------



## Sutekh

mr. jeff said:


> Fair enough, but then who is absorbing all that selling volume ? And notice that all selling is being taken up in the same range of price. So whoever sells is selling into support at this level.




I guess those who were responsible for the earlier buying volume?  The volume over the later large range days is approximately the same amount.  With all the good news coming out at the time, would that have supported the price to allow the selling to take place?


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> The first is exhaustion of supply.
> The second is an exhaustion of demand




*Is the condensed version.*

BRU chart tells a tremendous story.
I have highlighted "some" of the story and its participants.

I'm happy to run a commentary but thought some may wish to have a go before I do.

Remember a chart cannot/will not advance unless
Supply is withdrawn
Or 
Supply is overcome by demand.
What we look for is EFFORT what is it (participants) trying to do?
Is it (Participants) succeeding?

*CLICK TO EXPAND.*


----------



## Sutekh

tech/a said:


> Remember a chart cannot/will not advance unless
> Supply is withdrawn
> Or
> Supply is overcome by demand.
> What we look for is EFFORT what is it (participants) trying to do?
> Is it (Participants) succeeding?




I'm too new to this to make much of the points you've marked tech, only to note that two of the points coincided with the sale of BRU shares by AWE (some 24 mil on the 29/07/11) and new shares (~3.7 mil) from a SPP on the 05/10/11.  

The following huge volume on the 18/10 and 19/10/11 didn't really seem to have an immediate result, but the stock did rise about 40% on moderate volume until Dec.  Then there was huge volume on a narrow spread down - demand overcoming supply?


----------



## tech/a

Sutekh said:


> I'm too new to this to make much of the points you've marked tech, only to note that two of the points coincided with the sale of BRU shares by AWE (some 24 mil on the 29/07/11) and new shares (~3.7 mil) from a SPP on the 05/10/11.
> 
> The following huge volume on the 18/10 and 19/10/11 didn't really seem to have an immediate result, but the stock did rise about 40% on moderate volume until Dec.  Then there was huge volume on a narrow spread down - demand overcoming supply?




At least youve had a shot.
Anyone else care to comment.?


----------



## notting

I wish I had been participating but it seems a bit beyond my limited abilities.
I don't understand all the little circles leading up to the breakout.
All I get is that's it's broken out and is consolidating with shrinking volume which would probably indicate it's coiling for another leap up.

Although I'm a bit nervous about the sector as it appears to be all looking a bit exhausted after it's great run.


----------



## mr. jeff

From the chart for BRU, it appears that there is not enough demand to overcome the supply at current levels, this appears to be distribution however volume has been decreasing suggesting that the selling is dropping off as buyers withdraw. 

In my mind and with the moves to date action is positive - there is no selling down at these levels - I would expect to see more volume and more of a down move if there was significant weakness which has not appeared yet. On the balance, it appears that a further up move is more probable at this stage. 

If it were to drop, it may drop painfully quickly if selling volume appears. (So far not evident).


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> *Is the condensed version.*
> 
> BRU chart tells a tremendous story.
> I have highlighted "some" of the story and its participants.
> 
> I'm happy to run a commentary but thought some may wish to have a go before I do.
> 
> Remember a chart cannot/will not advance unless
> Supply is withdrawn
> Or
> Supply is overcome by demand.
> What we look for is EFFORT what is it (participants) trying to do?
> Is it (Participants) succeeding?
> 
> *CLICK TO EXPAND.*
> View attachment 46400




It doesn't look to me like one I would enter. That huge upthrust type bar looks like a sell off. I'd want to see a few more days' action if I was to change my opinion. Is there something beyond the obvious here?


----------



## Sutekh

pavilion103 said:


> It doesn't look to me like one I would enter. That huge upthrust type bar looks like a sell off. I'd want to see a few more days' action if I was to change my opinion. Is there something beyond the obvious here?




A few days on it has since meandered past that upthrust bar to an all time high, however that day also appeared quite weak.  Maybe some marking up of the price to help someone exit their position?  The weekly chart seems to show a similar story.


----------



## tech/a

Ill do a full analysis in VSA on the marked chart this weekend sometime.

*BUT*

New highs on lowish volume is a strong sign that there is no supply at resistance.
So participants are holding their stock.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Ill do a full analysis in VSA on the marked chart this weekend sometime.
> 
> *BUT*
> 
> New highs on lowish volume is a strong sign that there is no supply at resistance.
> So participants are holding their stock.




But isn't the volume spike still relatively high compared to all recent activity? Or are you saying it isn't that high compared to previous high volume days e.g. the one in August which was enormous?


----------



## tech/a

There is a massive amount of information in this chart
It will serve as a good reference to those who wish to chart read and as I walk through quite a few charts OF THIS CHART (BRU) I will show practical application of analysis and *Where/Why/and How* to place low risk entries for maximum R/R (Reward to risk)

As such I think it appropriate to place all of this in the tech analysis thread.
Ill try and get it all done this weekend.

There are some great opportunities right now and more emerging all the time.
This I'm sure will be helpful.


----------



## joea

Price and Volume Analysis, from Read the Ticker site for those interested.

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=489_price-volume-analysis-on-the-tbt-2012-03

joea


----------



## Monkeyzu

Hi tech, can you give me some idea of the success rate of VSA? Many people on this forum say when looking at a system find out the P/L, expectancy, maxDD etc. But VSA seems to be a system but also very subjective, so the 'system' stats never seem to be mentioned. As someone who has used VSA over a long period how have you found the success rate? 

Given that part of the rules are trading with the trend, trading with the index, using stops and cutting losers as soon as the move goes against you there should be some positive edge just from these actions (i'm thinking on par with Nick Radges flipper). How much of an edge does the VSA entry and exits add?


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## Trembling Hand

Monkeyzu said:


> Hi tech, can you give me some idea of the success rate of VSA? Many people on this forum say when looking at a system find out the P/L, expectancy, maxDD etc.




I'm not Tech but I can guess his answer. Its not a system its an approach to analysis. Therefore you cannot give any stats as to its performance.


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## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm not Tech but I can guess his answer. Its not a system its an approach to analysis. Therefore you cannot give any stats as to its performance.




Correct.

VSA will give indications of supply and demand arising from single or multiple bar behavior.
While you can design a system around the method in itself it isn't a system as such.
Where a lot go wrong is they buy TRADEGUIDER they expect the signals to be an in built trading methodology. Its NOT.

Its a learning curve----you cant take each signal and simply buy and or sell upon it.
You must learn the story that the chart is telling you and understand how to take trades which give lowest risk for maximum gain.

But while I'm on this question its been a goal of mine to construct systems using VSA and to see what edge it gives in many time frames.
Kris (my in house Quant) and I are strapped for time but are making some positive moves in this general direction. I will be able to one day definitively answer your question with the stats you require.

I question why we haven't seen stats from Tradeguider?
You'd think that a few systems run in the back ground showing positive results would be a massive marketing tool.
The sizzle keeps being pedaled and the pundits keep buying it without knowing if when they apply it it will give them an edge.

For me it does.
For many it frustrates.


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## joea

tech/a said:


> Correct.
> 
> The sizzle keeps being pedaled and the pundits keep buying it without knowing if when they apply it it will give them an edge.
> 
> For me it does.
> For many it frustrates.




Tech/a
The peddler does not require stats. because the he is exceptionally good salesman.
Selling "snow to the eskimo's", or "Carbon tax" to the Australian voter, this is the guy to call.
joea


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## Monkeyzu

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm not Tech but I can guess his answer. Its not a system its an approach to analysis. Therefore you cannot give any stats as to its performance.




Someone using VSA over long period must have some basic stats or even feel for its performance. It may vary from person to person depending on their skill, which is why i'd like to here from someone who uses it effectively - when entering a trade based on VSA, based on your past experience, what is the probability of the analysis being correct and the trade moving into profit? If Tech has taken 1000 (for example) trades based on VSA he must have some idea of how profitable (as a %) those trades have been?


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## tech/a

Monkeyzu said:


> Someone using VSA over long period must have some basic stats or even feel for its performance. It may vary from person to person depending on their skill, which is why i'd like to here from someone who uses it effectively - when entering a trade based on VSA, based on your past experience, what is the probability of the analysis being correct and the trade moving into profit? If Tech has taken 1000 (for example) trades based on VSA he must have some idea of how profitable (as a %) those trades have been?




Well then it comes down to which signal.
Of the trades I take on entry 70%+ move in my direction for at least 1 bar.
Exit signals are similar.
But I dont trade signal to signal.
I trade off of a signal sometimes a few bars after.
I want to see reaction to the signal.

My return on account so far is 43% but thats discretionary trading I cant put it down to a specific signal or signals of VSA.
Extremely low volume bars tell me more than extremely high volume bars.
A lot of my VSA trading is an adaptation of "taught" skill.

I wouldnt trade without taking note of VSA.
But unfortunately the "art" is lost to some extent in the marketing.


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## Monkeyzu

joea said:


> Tech/a
> The peddler does not require stats. because the he is exceptionally good salesman.
> Selling "snow to the eskimo's", or "Carbon tax" to the Australian voter, this is the guy to call.
> joea




I've been wondering for a while if Seb Manby, who learnt from Tom Williams and has been using VSA for years now, is no longer with Tradeguider because he has retired to his yacht with his millions made throught trading. If he hasn't done it yet the rest of us have no hope!

VSA do have a couple of guys who have done well in World Cup Advior using the method. The latest came 2nd with about 40% profit. Gary Holmes ("The peddler") himself did say he wss going to enter the comp, which i would love to see.


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## tech/a

Gavin Holmes.


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## Monkeyzu

tech/a said:


> Gavin Holmes.




Ah, yep Gavin. Thanks Tech.

I should add, i have TG and I think it has merit. But the marketing machine can be a bit off-putting. I'll keep persisting. My interest and question in this thread is really because I wonder what the ultimate goal is? Taking a step back from the marketing what is a realistic expectation compared to systems with a known expectancy? Thanks for your responses Tech.


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## tech/a

Monkeyzu said:


> Ah, yep Gavin. Thanks Tech.
> 
> I should add, i have TG and I think it has merit. But the marketing machine can be a bit off-putting. I'll keep persisting. My interest and question in this thread is really because I wonder what the ultimate goal is? Taking a step back from the marketing what is a realistic expectation compared to systems with a known expectancy? Thanks for your responses Tech.




Actually if you dont mind post your PM to this thread.
I think my answer when I get the time to answer fully will be o interest to the many others in your position.


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## Monkeyzu

I have Tradeguider, I'm new to it and probably not putting in as much time as I should (or as much as Pavilion for example), but I'm not in a rush so happy to plod along just reading/watching seminar recordings on the bus to work. In reality I have debt that takes priority, but I know that at some point I won't and the money that's has been going to it will have to go somewhere useful. I'm taking my time now to come up with a plan for that day.

Tradeguider is something I will persist with because I am learning, which is something I enjoy. Just the "beware the news" advice is probably worth the $500 I paid. But I do wonder if I will ever use all the VSA knowledge in my plan. VSA through their software seems time consuming to narrow down candidate stocks and very dependant on the individuals interpretation. When a trade goes wrong the experts are quick to say it was an error in interpretation ("clearly there was still some selling in that bar..."), rather than just say we have X% success. The implication is that when you're good enough (maybe some more cour$es??) you'll be right all the time!

It's definitely not mechanical! How big is the 'edge' for all the time involved?

So here is my thinking: Tradeguider recommends we wait until a trend is in place (for 3 bars) after a low/high. So it is trend following (actually trend following in multiple timeframes if we follow their recommendation). They also recommend we trade in harmony with the index, so we have a form of (discretionary) index filter in place. This could just as easily be a EMA/ROC on the XAO to simplify. Tradeguider recommends we have a plan and we stick to it. The VSA software generates Chandelier stops we are told to use. All good advice.

So even without any VSA signals we have a trend following system not totally dissimilar to the 20% Flipper out of Nick Radges book. Except we have chandelier stops rather than fixed %, and we are looking at more than 1 time frame for the trend. We are also shorting falling stocks (not long only). Could this all be an improvement on the "Flipper"? Would it be unreasonable to assume that if the stocks fitting these criteria were selected AT RANDOM without even looking at the VSA signal we should get a CAGR of 30% (al-la the flipper)? _Potentially_ more because of the added criteria?
My question is, if we add the VSA methodology to these "trend following" rules, do we get an edge?

On your point of automating VSA signal into a system, the easiest to start with would have to be End of a Rising Market (narrow spread, close in the middle 3rd of the bar, very high OR very low volume, on a high into "fresh new ground", say 50 bars)? Or Buying/Selling Climaxes, then change in trend to confirm. Apparently they don't happen too often, so having Amibroker keeping an eye out for you would be handy, just in case you're not looking at the right stock at the right time.

Have you considered getting the trial of the "add-in studies" and just using their indicators for some testing?


----------



## tech/a

Monkeyzu said:


> I have Tradeguider, I'm new to it and probably not putting in as much time as I should (or as much as Pavilion for example), but I'm not in a rush so happy to plod along just reading/watching seminar recordings on the bus to work. In reality I have debt that takes priority, but I know that at some point I won't and the money that's has been going to it will have to go somewhere useful. I'm taking my time now to come up with a plan for that day.




Plans are fine but unless you know if your plan will return a profit it just a group of ideas.


> Tradeguider is something I will persist with because I am learning, which is something I enjoy. Just the "beware the news" advice is probably worth the $500 I paid. But I do wonder if I will ever use all the VSA knowledge in my plan. VSA through their software seems time consuming to narrow down candidate stocks and very dependant on the individuals interpretation. When a trade goes wrong the experts are quick to say it was an error in interpretation ("clearly there was still some selling in that bar..."), rather than just say we have X% success. The implication is that when you're good enough (maybe some more cour$es??) you'll be right all the time!




Unfortunately nothing on the planet is fool proof.Certain chart patterns and bars "indicate" supply and demand characteristics,subsequent bars confirm or refute the indication. How you apply the analysis to your trading and how you manage your trades will determine your success. To expect anyone to place a % on trading their VSA setups is pretty well impossible unless they are using the same set up time and again in isolation and have excellent recording ability like STATOR.



> It's definitely not mechanical! How big is the 'edge' for all the time involved?




The edge over people who have no idea what they are looking at is massive.
Over experienced traders ( ones who turn a consistent profit ) it's just another tool in the box.Yes you could make it your only tool but you'd need to be well well ahead of the basic knowledge Tradeguider  make available.
You see it's not the analysis that will make the profit --- it's the application and that goes way beyond any technical tools.Think position sizing/ trade and portfolio management.to name a couple.
Seriously you need to know how to develop a mechanical system or subscribe to someone who does like RADGE.



> So here is my thinking: Tradeguider recommends we wait until a trend is in place (for 3 bars) after a low/high. So it is trend following (actually trend following in multiple timeframes if we follow their recommendation). They also recommend we trade in harmony with the index, so we have a form of (discretionary) index filter in place. This could just as easily be a EMA/ROC on the XAO to simplify. Tradeguider recommends we have a plan and we stick to it. The VSA software generates Chandelier stops we are told to use. All good advice.




Well it's logical but that's it. There are no numbers or stats which justify the advice.
There are no clear guides to application of the suggested analysis. It's just a set of ideas.



> So even without any VSA signals we have a trend following system not totally dissimilar to the 20% Flipper out of Nick Radges book. Except we have chandelier stops rather than fixed %, and we are looking at more than 1 time frame for the trend. We are also shorting falling stocks (not long only). Could this all be an improvement on the "Flipper"? Would it be unreasonable to assume that if the stocks fitting these criteria were selected AT RANDOM without even looking at the VSA signal we should get a CAGR of 30% (al-la the flipper)? _Potentially_ more because of the added criteria?
> My question is, if we add the VSA methodology to these "trend following" rules, do we get an edge?




You can use ATR , CHANDELIER or any number of other indicators or add VSA 
Endless. Will it improve your results ---- maybe.
My method in it's raw form is better than Flipper.
Radge's is way way better than both who knows what he uses in his.
But I'll bet you could write it on the back of an envelope.



> On your point of automating VSA signal into a system, the easiest to start with would have to be End of a Rising Market (narrow spread, close in the middle 3rd of the bar, very high OR very low volume, on a high into "fresh new ground", say 50 bars)? Or Buying/Selling Climaxes, then change in trend to confirm. Apparently they don't happen too often, so having Amibroker keeping an eye out for you would be handy, just in case you're not looking at the right stock at the right time.




Sure you would set up a search to give you prospects. Once of course you have a system your happy with.



> Have you considered getting the trial of the "add-in studies" and just using their indicators for some testing?




No.


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## motorway

> So even without any VSA signals we have a trend following system not totally dissimilar to the 20% Flipper out of Nick Radges book. Except we have chandelier stops rather than fixed %, and we are looking at more than 1 time frame for the trend.




Have not read the book. But the flipper would appear be a non chronological time signal ?
Defining a trend without reference to time frame or chronological time?

If so it is a P&F ( intrinsic time ) signal. Outside the concept of time frames

10/15/20/25% would be  traditional (major ) trading range breakout for many P&F breakout systems.

VSA is looking at the volume. it again is derived from an intrinsic time methodology.

and related to P&F methodologies. Through the intrinsic time connection

consider... Price and Volume scale together in a stationary manner (intrinsic time)

Time is then always Non Stationary  in relation.

So  using Volume ( with a directional sign ) or a 20% flipper would be same. But not volume in a VSA sense .but in the same non chronological sense as the 20% flipper.

I would expect the 20% flipper to be a better signal than simple VSA bar signals.

If I have understood the 20% flipper properly.

Motorway


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## Monkeyzu

Motorway, I think I need to run your post through babelfish to have any hope of understanding most of it! 



motorway said:


> Have not read the book. But the flipper would appear be a non chronological time signal ?
> Defining a trend without reference to time frame or chronological time?




It is a system based purely on price with no reference to time (also no reference to rate of change of price, moving averages etc that would tie price back to time).



> consider... Price and Volume scale together in a stationary manner (intrinsic time)
> 
> Time is then always Non Stationary  in relation.




Ummm.... you've lost me 

Can you explain what this means?

You have made me think though; systes/signals without any reference to time...  there's something in that.


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## motorway

Monkeyzu said:


> Motorway, I think I need to run your post through babelfish to have any hope of understanding most of it!
> 
> 
> 
> It is a system based purely on price with no reference to time (also no reference to rate of change of price, moving averages etc that would tie price back to time).
> 
> 
> 
> Ummm.... you've lost me
> 
> Can you explain what this means?
> 
> You have made me think though; systes/signals without any reference to time...  there's something in that.




On a Bar chart with time on the X axis . You have time in fixed units.

So some bars will have lots of price movement and lots of volume others will have very little etc

Ok That is only because the X axis is compressing price and volume into slices of time.

Now consider as example a P&F chart. The price will flow without reference to any time frame (slices of time ). You just significantly changed these relationships of volume, time and price.. Now price and volume will both be stationary to each other.

IE when price moves faster , volume will expand . When volume contracts price movement will slow . The exceptions will be of special causes/significance.

( Price Movement will be correlated with volume )

On the BAR chart time is stationary ( fixed units ) with the amount of price and volume changing.

On the P&F chart price and volume will be stationary to each other as time changes.


By defining price and  volume with out the fixed slices of a stationary time frame. 
You ,as the flipper would seem to demonstrate can develop very powerful methods that cover all aspects of trading ( eg consider the flipper as a market breath or relative strength measure % of stocks ... In fact there are many P&F methods of such bullish percents )

But most important looking at Price and Volume in this manner will also get you looking at Price and Volume very differently too.  Very differently .

And Time ? You will certainly appreciate most clearly the importance of Time.

have a think ? price and volume move as a wave.. As a price/volume/time UNIT.

You always have all three at the ONE TIME..

Also consider the power for system building
The absence of stationary time. Means your system will better Time as  in Timing.

looking at VSA is similar because the focus is removed form the slice of time (even though they are still on  the chart) and placed on the expansion of price and volume.

Very different from using indicators using that X axis of Slices of time.

I expect the flipper to be better because the time element can expand or contract to what ever it needs to. Not restricted to 1 or 2 bars like VSA signals ( Which is different to Wyckoff method ) Just the same as a P&F chart does of course the P&F chart allows the Horizontal movement to be part of the analysis.

The Time, the flipper and a P&F ( & Renko and some others ) are triggered by is INTRINSIC  (INTRINSIC TIME)  not overlaid as external measure.

I would recommend study in this area.

Motorway


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## Mistagear

motorway said:


> On a Bar chart with time on the X axis . You have time in fixed units.
> 
> 
> The absence of stationary time. Means your system will better Time as  in Timing.
> 
> looking at VSA is similar because the focus is removed form the slice of time (even though they are still on  the chart) and placed on the expansion of price and volume.
> 
> Very different from using indicators using that X axis of Slices of time.
> 
> I expect the flipper to be better because the time element can expand or contract to what ever it needs to. Not restricted to 1 or 2 bars like VSA signals ( Which is different to Wyckoff method ) Just the same as a P&F chart does of course the P&F chart allows the Horizontal movement to be part of the analysis.
> 
> The Time, the flipper and a P&F ( & Renko and some others ) are triggered by is INTRINSIC  (INTRINSIC TIME)  not overlaid as external measure.
> 
> I would recommend study in this area.
> 
> Motorway




Personally I use Volume Charts, which also have no time component, but imho show the supply/demand, cause/effect equation better than P&F.
When forced to use a Time Axis (most platforms do not support Volume chart) I find having Volume Profile assists in explaining swings/waves etc.

PS. I have no experience myself with P&F, but have had discussions with Motorway on another thread since January and feel the P&F analysis keeps unseen a considerable amount of the supply/demand picture which is visible using Volume charts and/or VSA methods on a Time axis chart


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## motorway

Mistagear said:


> Personally I use Volume Charts, which also have no time component, but imho show the supply/demand, cause/effect equation better than P&F.
> When forced to use a Time Axis (most platforms do not support Volume chart) I find having Volume Profile assists in explaining swings/waves etc.
> 
> PS. I have no experience myself with P&F, but have had discussions with Motorway on another thread since January and feel the P&F analysis keeps unseen a considerable amount of the supply/demand picture which is visible using Volume charts and/or VSA methods on a Time axis chart




CVB will move much like P&F boxes

Almost exactly the same 

But the P&F has enormous flexibility.

CVB and P&F Both are two dimension charts

HERE IS a Golden Pearl

On these charts a movement in the vertical has exactly the same meaning as the movement horizontal. Hence Cause is directly correlated with Effect
the P&F chart can use just X as a symbol because every  X is the same price/volume unit and means the same  across or up/down.

imo CVB are a way of drawing a P&F chart when the software can not draw them.

Again the time element becomes clear as the variable ( and key to many considerations )

It is easy to make up P&F charts and overlay them with CVB and CTB ( T=Time )

You will find how alike volume and Price move.

P&F chart because of its construction and special way it handles the signed order flow ( CVB handle the same way  I think ). But esp construction allows everything to be zoomed into or out. In modifying BOX or changing reversal. What is very far apart can be brought together and connection become visible ( remove the empty spaces )

Or you can zoom right into the bursts of activity ( in a  special way ) at the bid ask and all directly correlated though the time that is intrinsic.

Imagine you following a portfolio of stocks
you can have the one scale on a P&F and screen and manage the entire universe. ( the scale will be a type of logarithmic scale )

You can not to this with CVB so easily

You only need to define YOUR signal
The Intrinsic time will do the timing

eg ~ 4% Box size X 1  ( primary trend )
on say large cap on the US market would have multiple entries and holds on AAPL 
while other charts crawl in comparison to NO WHERE.

The P&F used in this way can truly seem to ignore time and volume ( because it really isn't as explained above ) 

The only way to find out is to DO

Make up some charts
overlay time and Volume

You will see the relationships of time volume and price 
VERY QUICKLY..

connection  to the thread
VSA is connecting  the user to a degree to  this  Intrinsic Time.


A guy who grasped this was the creator of MP
Only imo there is little to be gained collapsing the fluctuations into a BELL CURVE
or as was used ( and still ) 30 min slices of time.

The X on a P&F chart.. was called a Price/volume/Time UNIT

There is one important difference to a MP TPO... But 
They are  same species. That difference is Important

When looking at a 4% APPL chart ( go to Stockcharts )

Think about the Flipper

How it can Time ( without using time )

Of course Wyckoff grasped this as did some earlier and later.

Then until recently lost and on the sidelines, Now the Physicists are rediscovering it.

I would say to any beginner
start with P&F
then you will know what you are looking at when looking at any other method
( you will be looking with intrinsic time eyes )

Many will finish back with P&F and won't bother going anywhere again.

The thing is to make the charts up study and learn.
You really for a beginner do not need any software
a simple spreadsheet with manual entry can be a great leaning adventure
and extremely simple and very little time to maintain.

With AAPL Start from 31 dec 2006
4% select log select daily select High Low

Move the date gradually forward.
consider what I have said
every X and O has same meaning 

consider how other stocks would have been behaving
From 2003 till the present ( some stocks entire history would be on the one screen shot = Intrinsic Time )
Motorway


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## Gringotts Bank

motorway, what is intrinsic time?


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## Monkeyzu

Gringotts Bank said:


> motorway, what is intrinsic time?




Time measured in events, rather than seconds. An "event" may be a % change in price (or volume). The best description I could find:

http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2011-28/count&sa=U&ei=TAyRT8HLA_TG6AHOlNCRBA&ved=0CC0QFjAJ&usg=AFQjCNEZcPgnoHv8gNpBGtiu105jxY7nBg

So if the "event" is price of a stock doubles, it does not matter whether it takes 30min or 3 days, in the specified scale (of 100% increase), one unit of time has passed. We could select smaller events (eg 5% change) to extract more data-points. If you use very small events you begin to closely map the normal price/time chart (a bit pointless), if you use very big events you probably won't extract much meaning. Somewhere in between you may find a "delta" that when plotted shows meaningful events.

I may have got some of this wrong, sure Motorway can clarify. But the paper is interesting.

I have no idea about P&F, never seen it before. But I can see how for example time may not be relavent to support and resistance. In VSA they suggest plotting support lines from the past out into the future. These could be from way back, off the edge of your  chart. VSA even talks about support line from years ago having an impact on some stocks. If your time scale is not linear the support line would be compressed on your page and more visible, as to whether it has an impact.


----------



## motorway

Gringotts Bank &  Monkeyzu .. look at the APPL chart at 4%  ( also select wide chart and Giga size + trend lines daily H/L )

consider that there is significant larger time horizon trend momentum. 
You will see this by looking at at 8% chart and even a 16%.
That large Time Horizon is sweeping along every other active time Horizon right down to the day traders. So larger time horizon activity is visible on the smallest resolution charts right down to the bid ask spread ( though here we approach a important change in behavior) and here is important point.. We look at the smallest scale charts to see what EVERYBODY is doing.

Olsen's description of Direction change ( BOX SIZE ) and Overshoot ( The number of boxes after the reversal in the same direction ) is a definition of a P&F chart.

Hence the usefulness of his work.




> For an intrinsic time point to occur, there must be enough movement against the previous prevailing trend to trigger a Directional Change Threshold (DC), where the DC is defined by a fixed percentage of the previous move. From this point onwards, the Price Overshoot (OS) starts to be counted until another Directional Change is triggered.
> 
> In the same way as we have different Timeframes and Tick Charts on conventional charting, we can have different Intrinsic Time charts by using different percentages as the Directional Change Threshold.
> 
> The Olsen Scale of Market Quakes takes the calculation of the Intrinsic Time one step further and, for each price movement in the market, the SMQ will measure how many DC thresholds, from 0.05% to 500%, would be be triggered, normalizing then the values into a scale from 0 to 6.






> calculation is based on the price evolution of a currency through time, any event causing a raise in the markets volatility can be indentified and set apart for further analysis. This makes it a valuable Fundamental and Technical Analysis tool capable of quantifying the impacts caused by news events, the placement of large orders, cascades of liquidations, and ubiquitous unbalances between buyers and sellers,




All true , but also the important aspect of a P&F chart though , is the fact of the  same meaning on both axis.

So a movement five boxes up or down has same relevance as a movement 5 Boxes across ( which is achieved by changes in direction Olsen's DC )

This is untrue of a Bar chart. The two axis are not the same. five units up is price
five units across JUST HAPPENS it is just the Earth revolving.

Now time is still important and on Both charts all activity moves through time.

There is direct connection to VSA

But maybe getting too Off Topic.

Motorway


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## Gringotts Bank

Thanks motorway and monkey,

This is actually quite hard for me to follow.  I'd need to read some basics on it first.

Just one quick question: are renko and 3-line-break charts based on intrinsic time?  Do they have any of the same benefits of P&F charting?


----------



## motorway

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks motorway and monkey,
> 
> This is actually quite hard for me to follow.  I'd need to read some basics on it first.
> 
> Just one quick question: are renko and 3-line-break charts based on intrinsic time?  Do they have any of the same benefits of P&F charting?




Yes ,, Renko is the same as a P&F chart except it is exploded ( every brick moves sideways )   But you can not change the reversal it is always one.

Renko is OK when looking at a small section of activity
But imagine that APPLE chart as a Renko chart.. Renko charts can get that extensive that you soon lose sight of the background context. Renko chart is full of meaningless empty spaces.. The charts just get too large to handle.

P&F can modify the box size as well as change the reversal so
the price series can be condensed ( removing empty spaces or adding meaningful ones ) In a number of ways

Three-line-break are related
But Renko and Both TLB . both tend to focus on trend momentum to the relative exclusion of trading range analysis

P&F can do either , It can focus very specially on the areas of congestion because they appear with so much clarity. Hence movement from such zones has high clarity also..

Also because of that that clarity, the relationships of such zones to each other ( rising, falling accelerating , decelerating etc ) is Higher too.

Motorway


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## joea

Tradeguider Roadshow in Sydney 29th - 30th in September I think.
joea


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## derteye

*Re: VSA Chart Analysis Discussion Thread CBA 1/3*

Gday All

New to VSA learning and thought I would post some charts and see if any followers wish to provide some commentary on the price action with respects to VSA.


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## derteye

*Re: VSA Chart Analysis Discussion Thread NBA 2/3*

NBA 2/3


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## derteye

Finally UNG 3/3


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## tech/a

Well
Your the one learning
So what's your take on each?


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## derteye

Ok here is what I have to offer:

CBA- Has been in a strong uptrend now for most of the year since January and it seems to me that the  distribution of CBA has commenced  at the Volume spike at the very end of June. It has chopped along for most of July and I think that the last bar is a form of shake out and that CBA could find support levels at around either firstly $79 or $77.50 which was resistance Dec/Jan and the start of April. I would be looking for support on one of these levels and then look extremely low Volume on a down day for a SOS. 

UNG- Was forming a breakout pattern and came to my attention via Nick Radge on FB. He was looking at a breakout late June. Looking back to the huge Volume spike and up bar on June 12 you would possibly have thought that a breakout was on the cusp but I believe that SOW is shown the very next day as the spread is thin upwards and volume is extremely low. I believe that price action is still coiling within the triangle pattern.
However you might argue that a break to the downside is in play as the last 3 bars are with little spread on Up days and volume disappearing. Almost like a divergence.

NAB- For mind it is rather choppy and I am less clearer on my thoughts of this than the previous two. Is the recent trading in the channel b/w $32.75 - $33.75 Accumulation and the last day a possible shakeout before a possible surge.


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## Cam019

Thought I might resurrect this thread as I feel it will help me talk through my analysis with other traders interested in VSA and hopefully help me learn a few things in the process.

*COE



*
So the way I am reading this is lots of effort on Jan 30 with a high volume up bar closing on the days high. Then we have a month long period of consolidation with no sell signals as most of the down bars are accompanied with either narrow range, low volume or a combination of both. On Monday, there is a successful test for floating supply which could have also been a shake out (especially for holders who had just used an ATR based stop without considering previous levels of support). The test bar closed half through the range which indicates some buying pressure stopping the prices from falling further (buyers must be entering the market). Yesterday we saw a large increase in volume with wide range closing near the days high and through a previous level of resistance.

Please feel free to dissect and comment as it can only help with my VSA education.


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## tech/a

Cam019 said:


> Thought I might resurrect this thread as I feel it will help me talk through my analysis with other traders interested in VSA and hopefully help me learn a few things in the process.
> 
> *COE
> 
> View attachment 70133
> 
> *
> So the way I am reading this is lots of effort on Jan 30 with a high volume up bar closing on the days high. Then we have a month long period of consolidation with no sell signals as most of the down bars are accompanied with either narrow range, low volume or a combination of both. On Monday, there is a successful test for floating supply which could have also been a shake out (especially for holders who had just used an ATR based stop without considering previous levels of support). The test bar closed half through the range which indicates some buying pressure stopping the prices from falling further (buyers must be entering the market). Yesterday we saw a large increase in volume with wide range closing near the days high and through a previous level of resistance.
> 
> Please feel free to dissect and comment as it can only help with my VSA education.





Just saw this.
Its a good example as it didn't go on with things as anticipated.

Ill comment later.(No time now)


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## Cam019

tech/a said:


> Just saw this.
> Its a good example as it didn't go on with things as anticipated.
> 
> Ill comment later.(No time now)




Anything @tech/a?


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## tech/a

Sorry Cam I decided to wait and see if there was interest, seems only you!
But hey if one is listening Ill ramble on.

Firstly these are my observations.
In General terms VSA single /multiple bar or chart patterns have a life
Single bars only the next day
Multiple bars until the pattern or bar pattern breaks down.
COA is a great example because it triggers then breaks down then gives more signals.

So here is a marked chart which we can follow with comments on how I would have traded it
just as I trade others like it. For me the initial pattern was weak which wasn't certain until
the very next bar. (5/10) .
I know its easy in hindsight but this chart has panned out like many others with similar setups.
Many I have posted in charts of interest. I get caught in trades I should not be taking like many others do.
Ruthless exits have proven more than their worth.----for me.


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## Boggo

I don't want to derail this excellent VSA thread but I did have COE in a watch list for a few days and this is about another way of looking at this type of stock behaviour.
I run my weekly scan of the All Ords stocks (~500) during the week sometimes just for a heads up and sometimes an opportunity to enter a weekly buy on a Friday when it is obvious that the signal will still be valid at the end of the day (and week).

In the case of COE, it came up in both the weekly and daily scans on Tue 28th Feb but because I now lean towards weekly only I held off to see how it would hold up for the rest of the week and the weekly OHLC bar in the pic below says it all (to me anyway).

While I occasionally miss out on some short term fast runners I am finding that this approach reduces the number of failed trades and gives me a better win/loss ratio.

Sorry for the thread disruption, just thought that the bigger picture was worthwhile mentioning and I was familiar with this stock for about a week


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## tech/a

Boggo said:


> I don't want to derail this excellent VSA thread but I did have COE in a watch list for a few days and this is about another way of looking at this type of stock behaviour.
> I run my weekly scan of the All Ords stocks (~500) during the week sometimes just for a heads up and sometimes an opportunity to enter a weekly buy on a Friday when it is obvious that the signal will still be valid at the end of the day (and week).
> 
> In the case of COE, it came up in both the weekly and daily scans on Tue 28th Feb but because I now lean towards weekly only I held off to see how it would hold up for the rest of the week and the weekly OHLC bar in the pic below says it all (to me anyway).
> 
> While I occasionally miss out on some short term fast runners I am finding that this approach reduces the number of failed trades and gives me a better win/loss ratio.
> 
> Sorry for the thread disruption, just thought that the bigger picture was worthwhile mentioning and I was familiar with this stock for about a week
> 
> View attachment 70588




All good
The weekly shows a high and a low which could be tested
Note how tight the closes have been ( in a Range ) for the last 6 weeks


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## Cam019

tech/a said:


> For me the initial pattern was weak which wasn't certain until the very next bar. (5/10) .




Tech, could you elaborate on why the initial pattern was weak? Was it because the Tuesday 28th bar closed off its high which would indicate supply entering and demand was not able to absorb all the supply? Could you have known how weak it was on that 'assumption' alone without waiting the see the weakness in the Wednesday 1st and Thursday 2nd bars?



Boggo said:


> I don't want to derail this excellent VSA thread but I did have COE in a watch list for a few days and this is about another way of looking at this type of stock behaviour.
> I run my weekly scan of the All Ords stocks (~500) during the week sometimes just for a heads up and sometimes an opportunity to enter a weekly buy on a Friday when it is obvious that the signal will still be valid at the end of the day (and week).
> 
> In the case of COE, it came up in both the weekly and daily scans on Tue 28th Feb but because I now lean towards weekly only I held off to see how it would hold up for the rest of the week and the weekly OHLC bar in the pic below says it all (to me anyway).
> 
> While I occasionally miss out on some short term fast runners I am finding that this approach reduces the number of failed trades and gives me a better win/loss ratio.
> 
> Sorry for the thread disruption, just thought that the bigger picture was worthwhile mentioning and I was familiar with this stock for about a week
> 
> View attachment 70588




Thanks for the input Boggo. It's always helpful to be able to see another persons view on an unfolding situation. To me, the weekly chart you posted shows weakness as supply has not been absorbed by demand on the bar ending March 3rd, not the mention the bar testing the October 2014 high which would suggest buyers who got locked into a bad trade around that end of 2014 area on the left of the chart are looking to get out at B/E or with a slight profit after waiting over 2 years for the price to bounce back.


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