# How many days do people usually hold on to the shares?



## Dpkmelb (27 May 2020)

Hi All,

How many days do people hold onto the shares usually?

I bought some shares a month ago and my capital gains are around $5000. Even if I hold the shares for a year time, I don't think there will be much capital gains on top of $5000. 

I know holding on to shares for 1 year I can get the CGT Concession of 50%. But is it really worth to wait that long. 

Is transferring money back to mortgage or anything else.

I would like to know what people will usually do.


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## tech/a (27 May 2020)

About as long as a woman.

When you find a good one hold on 
Always have a prenup ( Profit stop )
Like all good relationships you can
Lose the lot.


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## Smurf1976 (27 May 2020)

No specific time in my case.

If it continues to meet the reasons why I bought it then I'll continue to hold it and if that ends up being many years then so be it. If circumstances change then it'll be sold be that after years or just days.

Others will be using different approaches and have very different holding periods.


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## tech/a (28 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> About as long as a woman.
> 
> When you find a good one hold on
> Always have a prenup ( Profit stop )
> ...




In all seriousness.
For me----
I wait for a shock a big one like COVID
Trillion Dollar Stimulus packages.
Trump gaining Power in the US.
OR a/the GFC
To set long term positions I also look for warnings of these to get the hell out.
While it may not be perfect timing there seems to be around 10 years between 
Large Scale Outliers that move markets. Those moves are generally Prolonged
They fall like stones and Recover over the long haul. (Larger SM Super holdings).

In between these times so during---I trade shorter term to hone skills
spot short term outliers and make some play money along the way.


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

Thanks tech/a and Smurf1976. 

As companies not declaring their performances now, buying frenzy rallying. when companies start declaring their performances  time to hit the Panic button i guess.


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## qldfrog (28 May 2020)

Daily system, sold yesterday, reenter today, on average 7 days or around between in out and longer short term
Weekly system around 5 or 6 bars so a months or so between quick exit in then out within 3 weeks for the losers and 10 or more weeks for the winners
The above to say that. 
Based on your type of trading you could see very long term: months or years or fast turnover even in the absence of crash


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Daily system, sold yesterday, reenter today, on average 7 days or around between in out and longer short term
> Weekly system around 5 or 6 bars so a months or so between quick exit in then out within 3 weeks for the losers and 10 or more weeks for the winners
> The above to say that.
> Based on your type of trading you could see very long term: months or years or fast turnover even in the absence of crash




Thanks qldfrog, I have started realising Quick wins are better than longer wins. (Superannuation is the best example where most people by default go into balanced option without realising, regardless of the entry and exit criteria, super companies say shares are for long term but it doesn't makes any sense. After holding my money in Super and didn't see any actual growth now slowly started realising the things). Superannuation is completely flawed system, default funds should be fixed interest or cash and let the users decide when to join growth options.


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## Sharkman (28 May 2020)

in terms of a straight count of the # of positions taken, then for me the most common would be in the 47-90'ish day range. strip the div, qualify for the franking credits, then try to get it called away or if not, then get rid of it normally and move on to the next one.

in terms of % of capital, then it would be years and years, possibly even forever.

8-12 years ago, when i was very much suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect, i used to rely primarily on option trading (typically by selling premium, most stock positions i took on were usually the result of those getting assigned, as i like to let them run to expiry where i can, to scoop up the insane theta at the end), but i'm mostly long term buy & hold now. i grew too big to fit under the SIPC coverage limit several years ago and that, combined with the realisation that i wasn't beating the index by enough (and in some years, not beating the index at all) to justify the time & energy spent doing it, pushed me towards a portfolio built around index ETFs and a few long term direct holdings.

i still short term trade for the challenge, which i do enjoy, but i don't rely on it that much for income anymore, and spend far less time & energy on it than i used to years ago.


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## Chronos-Plutus (28 May 2020)

It is relative to global macro fundamentals for me. In mid Feb this year I dumped ~90% of all my holdings, before the plunge, to protect my capital. I only recently just started to buy back into the market.


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It is relative to global macro fundamentals for me. In mid Feb this year I dumped ~90% of all my holdings, before the plunge, to protect my capital. I only recently just started to buy back into the market.



That was the perfect time of exit and entry


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

Sharkman said:


> in terms of a straight count of the # of positions taken, then for me the most common would be in the 47-90'ish day range. strip the div, qualify for the franking credits, then try to get it called away or if not, then get rid of it normally and move on to the next one.
> 
> in terms of % of capital, then it would be years and years, possibly even forever.
> 
> ...




You have a perfect plan. I think its bit late for me to enter into ETFs as they are already peaked unless there is another dip. with the normal shares we can buy closer to their 52 week low but very difficult with ETFs.


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## tech/a (28 May 2020)

Dpkmelb said:


> I have started realising Quick wins are better than longer wins.




Wouldn't be so sure of that.

Trading Elephants is easier than Flies!


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> Wouldn't be so sure of that.
> 
> Trading Elephants is easier than Flies!



Yes its easy but hard to buy them at the right price. Mostly they are overpriced, i tried to buy RIO, CBA, BHP but couldn't get through but the medium sized elephants that i bought made less money than the flies.


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## tech/a (28 May 2020)

Dpkmelb said:


> Yes its easy but hard to buy them at the right price. Mostly they are overpriced, i tried to buy RIO, CBA, BHP but couldn't get through but the medium sized elephants that i bought made less money than the flies.




Valuations differ as does perceived value as does perceived opportunity.
A2M and Afterpay and FMG come to mind (On the longer term front).

Buy Low sell high.
OR
Buy high and sell higher.

Most buy low and argue with positive affirmations as it goes lower and lower (hope!!)

Embrace being incorrect.
Its fine to be wrong
Its how long you stay wrong that matters.

Go through Peters first live portfolio trading
at least 3 times. *LEARN.*


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> Valuations differ as does perceived value as does perceived opportunity.
> A2M and Afterpay and FMG come to mind (On the longer term front).
> 
> Buy Low sell high.
> ...




Learned new thing "Buy high and sell higher.". Can you please share the Peter's link.


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## Sharkman (28 May 2020)

Dpkmelb said:


> You have a perfect plan. I think its bit late for me to enter into ETFs as they are already peaked unless there is another dip. with the normal shares we can buy closer to their 52 week low but very difficult with ETFs.




nothing's ever perfect in investing/trading. but it works well enough for me.

the thing with long term index ETF investing is that it's not all that important to care about the timing. i do care about entry and exits when short term option trading, but for ETFs i just dollar cost average in at regular intervals. nice and simple.

take IVV, if one was lucky enough to start investing into that in the late 2000s/early 2010s (i hadn't started buying any ETFs at the time, i was still in full options trading mode back then) whether you bought the "dip" at ~110 or at ~170 right before the onset of the GFC pales into insignificance compared to the possibility of missing out on the long term gains, when the thing is now in the 400s.

same thing is happening now. i ended up buying a parcel of that at nearly 500 right before the current crisis hit because it was my planned DCA time, and bought another parcel in the low 400s when the downward move hit. doesn't bother me at all that i bought one parcel at the "peak". odds are good that in a decade or two it'll be into the 1000s, and if that eventuates then in the grander scheme of things me buying that one parcel at 500 will hardly matter.


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## sptrawler (28 May 2020)

Dpkmelb said:


> Yes its easy but hard to buy them at the right price. Mostly they are overpriced, i tried to buy RIO, CBA, BHP but couldn't get through but the medium sized elephants that i bought made less money than the flies.



I think what the duck is saying, is the elephants live a hell of a lot longer, than the flies.
I tend to look at what the long term life expectancy is, they may not move as fast as the smaller creatures, but when the dust settles they pick themselves up and move on.


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

Sharkman said:


> nothing's ever perfect in investing/trading. but it works well enough for me.
> 
> the thing with long term index ETF investing is that it's not all that important to care about the timing. i do care about entry and exits when short term option trading, but for ETFs i just dollar cost average in at regular intervals. nice and simple.
> 
> ...




I seriously thought about IVV, VAS etc but due to expensive prices i couldn't touch them. I understand your point though. As i am new and late to this i have conservative approach that is whats the right price now. I couldn't buy APT when it was around $20 mark now i will never going to buy it even though i know it has lot of potential. Everyone thinks differently.


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## tech/a (28 May 2020)

Actually winning traders and investors don’t think all that differently


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## debtfree (28 May 2020)

Dpkmelb said:


> Learned new thing "Buy high and sell higher.". Can you please share the Peter's link.



*Peter's Live Portfolio Trading Links:*
*1:* *Feb 2015 to Jun 2015* *>> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...entum-setup-trading-thread.29536/#post-860397
2: Jun 2015 to Feb 2018 >> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/asx-momentum-trade-book-part-2.29971/
3: Jan 2018 to Sep 2019 >> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/p2-momentum-trade-book-part-3.33744/*


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## Sharkman (28 May 2020)

Dpkmelb said:


> Yes its easy but hard to buy them at the right price. Mostly they are overpriced, i tried to buy RIO, CBA, BHP but couldn't get through but the medium sized elephants that i bought made less money than the flies.




i appreciate that options trading won't be everyone's cup of tea, but this sort of situation is precisely where i find them to be very useful, and have done this sort of thing many times over the years myself, though as mentioned above, more sparingly in recent years.

simplest way to do it is sell OTM puts at a strike you're comfortable taking delivery at. 99.9% of the time you get the delta skew on your side (puts generally are more expensive than calls at equivalent delta, a few theories around this, fear being a more powerful emotion than greed is one of them). so you get paid well for the risk you're taking on, and either get to buy it at a discount to the current price, or you pocket the premium and can try again if the conditions are still ripe for it.

just picking one as an example to illustrate (this is not any sort of recommendation), market is showing 0.88/1.22 on the CBA Jul 60 puts as i type this. if you happen to think CBA is a bit pricey now, but 60 sounds like a level you'd like to enter at, you could sell some of those puts. if it's below 60 on Jul 16 (market is implying about a ~20% chance of that happening), then assuming mids (you don't always get mid but in one of the majors like CBA often you do) you get to effectively buy them at 58.95. if not, then you pocket the 1.05 and can try again with a different expiry, collecting another lot of premium.

that's a 1.6% return in 7 weeks (at full cash collateralisation, depending on broker that may not be required) where the worst thing that can happen is being forced to buy CBA at a 10% discount to where they are now. if comfortable with that sort of risk, then selling those puts is a great way to express that view in my opinion.


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## Dpkmelb (28 May 2020)

debtfree said:


> *Peter's Live Portfolio Trading Links:*
> *1:* *Feb 2015 to Jun 2015* *>> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...entum-setup-trading-thread.29536/#post-860397
> 2: Jun 2015 to Feb 2018 >> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/asx-momentum-trade-book-part-2.29971/
> 3: Jan 2018 to Sep 2019 >> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/p2-momentum-trade-book-part-3.33744/*



Thanks debtfree


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## Chronos-Plutus (28 May 2020)

Dpkmelb said:


> That was the perfect time of exit and entry




I have a pretty good track record of picking the market crashes/plunges; it is my trading execution that is very average. I am a much better researcher than trader.

So I only liquidated my portfolio, when I should have also taken short positions, but I didn't. Essentially, I just protected my capital.


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## Value Collector (3 June 2020)

I still own some shares I bought in 2000, when the company is good there is no reason to sell.


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