# Bargains Galore



## MovingAverage (18 March 2020)

Just curious, many blue chips have been hit extremely hard this past week or two. Many of these companies are hitting prices not seen in the past 15 years or so. As tempting as it is to buy some of these companies I'm not brave enough, yet. Is anyone here buying any shares at the moment or is everyone on the sidelines?


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## wayneL (18 March 2020)

I would be very worried about but actual forward earnings are. Things may look cheap on historical earnings but I have a strong feeling things are changing in that. regard.

Evaluation is nothing less than a crap shoot at the moment in my opinion


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## Dona Ferentes (18 March 2020)

Not buying.

(A lot of companies aren't that much cheaper than a *year* ago. Fifteen includes the GFC)


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## MovingAverage (18 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> I would be very worried about but actual forward earnings




Indeed...anyone trying to estimate forward earnings better have a very reliable crystal ball.


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## frugal.rock (18 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Is anyone here buying any shares at the moment or is everyone on the sidelines?



I bought some coch COH today...
Held for 50 minutes...
In at 165 out at 175... close to the high for the sell, but the buy was very ordinary timing....
For an intraday trade, ATM the market is like the ocean, don't trust it and don't turn your back to it... like I did with Afterpay today. Bought some at $15.50..., got busy with the day job, and whadya know?
Slammed like a puffer fish on the jetty! Still dropped another 15% !
Another long term keeper now.
F.Rock
PS, I should be on the sidelines...


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## MovingAverage (18 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I bought some coch COH today...
> Held for 50 minutes...
> In at 165 out at 175... close to the high for the sell, but the buy was very ordinary timing....
> For an intraday trade, ATM the market is like the ocean, don't trust it and don't turn your back to it... like I did with Afterpay today. Bought some at 15.50..., got busy with the day job, and whadya know?
> ...




I hear you. Have to admit that all this crap has me re-evaluating my whole approach to trading--do I move away from longer term hold strategies to shorter term strategies. One thing is for sure about the current chaos, it is an opportunity to reevaluate trading approaches


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## frugal.rock (18 March 2020)

Here's a thought, why doesn't ASIC implement trading halts or suspend trading for 20 minutes on individual stocks crashing more than say 25% in a day, just for the time being.
Or something similar.

Would shut the traps of the scaremongers.

Bargains galore? No, it's the new normal, except with 10x the volatility and volume...
Take AEI for example, biggest volume ever today, I believe.

F.Rock


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## MovingAverage (18 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Here's a thought, why doesn't ASIC implement trading halts or suspend trading for 20 minutes on individual stocks crashing more than say 25% in a day, just for the time being.
> Or something similar.



That's an interesting thought and I have to admit I don't like the idea. If I want to sell at a heavy discounted price and there is a buyer then I'd like to make the trade. I'd be very frustrated if ASX stepped in to stop the trade. I get they don't want massive market moves, but sometimes they need to step aside and let sellers/buyers do their thing.


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## MrChow (18 March 2020)

Look at the banks first half of 2021.

There's a possibility Coronavirus pops up again from October (flu season) in the U.S and Europe.  If there's multiple waves that elongates the timeline I don't think now would be bargains.

So then with Coronavirus leading to another wave of quarantines that's when the bankruptcies are likely to kick in.   The aftermath in 2009 of financial collapses took a few months to wash through and find a bottom so that'd take us to about 12 months from away or mid 2021.

At that stage all the banks would need to raise capital to offset their bad debt losses and you could pick the one or two with least solvency issues at crisis prices.  EG - WBC under $10.


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## frugal.rock (19 March 2020)

Just looking at things.
Kiwi's might be having a party of sorts...a parity party.
Aussie dollar virtually at parity with the Kiwi dollar...

I think we should all go to NZ and take their jobs.... work for 8.99 months then come home and collect the tax paid... does it work in reverse?
I don't really mean that, just had a bad experience at the hands of Kiwis who do that, you see, I am white pakea (white pig) according to the mouldy people's.... but I guess there's not a lot of incentive anymore if the dollar is at parity, unless we still pay higher wages here?

Got sidetracked there...
Bluescope Steel. BSL.
With our dollar going to rack and ruin for reasons unknown to myself, I can see that Bluescope may be a slow winner out of the sitch.
AUD to USD around 0.58...
AUD to CNY around 4.1... was 4.7 s couple of weeks ago.
Good quality Aussie steel, cheap as chips?
How can we take advantage of the dollar being down? Cheap exports for others, expensive imports for us.

Ditch the world, make Australia great again. Stop the world pillaging, plundering and exploiting OUR resources.... create industry that has been sold out/ lost here, create jobs.

Doesn't the grubberment realise, once you sell an asset, you don't have control over it. 
It's not yours anymore?
Like Metcash, have built new warehousing on new premises with state of the art equipment, but have now decided to sell and lease back due to current sitch.
Sounds like John Howard policy....

We need a little Chinese commie common sense and have more state owned enterprise.

Pierce off Jack Gibson...
Bring back the biff whilst we create at it...

F.Rock


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## hja (19 March 2020)

This must be the thread for taking a haircut.
Or should I say ouch to full epilation/laser treatment?
Hairy and proud!


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## SirRumpole (19 March 2020)

With all the panic buying going on, the supermarkets must be making a killing and putting up prices as well.

WOW anyone ?


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## rederob (19 March 2020)

The bargains out there will be those equities that have been heavily marked down in the panic, but are barely affected by the downturn as their company's activities are in areas such as food supply, technology, medical equipment manufacture or supply contracts to government/military.  Happy for other to add sectors I have missed.
As a gold bug, there are many good producers which posted reasonable profits in FY 2019 on an average gold price of around $1250/oz.  These same producers thus far in FY 2020 have been selling into a market that is, on average (ie after falling back as low as $1451), presently well over $250/oz higher. You can check out the likes of NCM, EVN, and RMS etc which I believe will report significantly better outcomes than last year.
Aside from the above, I would avoid the equity markets from an investor perspective as I believe the all ords (XAU) has a lot more downside before any semblance of recovery.


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## moXJO (19 March 2020)

rederob said:


> The bargains out there will be those equities that have been heavily marked down in the panic, but are barely affected by the downturn as their company's activities are in areas such as food supply, technology, medical equipment manufacture or supply contracts to government/military.  Happy for other to add sectors I have missed.
> As a gold bug, there are many good producers which posted reasonable profits in FY 2019 on an average gold price of around $1250/oz.  These same producers thus far in FY 2020 have been selling into a market that is, on average (ie after falling back as low as $1451), presently well over $250/oz higher. You can check out the likes of NCM, EVN, and RMS etc which I believe will report significantly better outcomes than last year.
> Aside from the above, I would avoid the equity markets from an investor perspective as I believe the all ords (XAU) has a lot more downside before any semblance of recovery.



Does gold and oil have a correlation on the charts?


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## rederob (19 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> With all the panic buying going on, the supermarkets must be making a killing and putting up prices as well.
> 
> WOW anyone ?



Woolies was a screaming buy on it's Black Friday lows but has since bounced nicely and I reckon represents better value than money in the bank.
However, from a longer term perspective the average consumer's buying power will be hit hard and that is likely to be reflected in WOW's bottom line.  Additionally, while all the supermarkets are presently going gangbusters, those customers stockpiling the staples at present will not be returning until they have run them down, so the net effect is relatively flat.
So while I reckon WOW is a good buy if you really want to spend money now, I don't believe it represents a particularly good value proposition from the perspective of a "normal" market.


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## moXJO (19 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I am white pakea (white pig) according to the mouldy people's.



It actually doesn't mean pig. Nor is it disassembled from Maori words of "white" or "pig". If you want to delve right into it, it's probably closer to Pakepakeha, Patupaiarehe or
Pakepakeha.
I've heard this go round a lot though.


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## UMike (19 March 2020)

This is a non insurance claimable crisis so how is QBE affected. If it is as I believe Then at 50% would  be a barging.
I sold a lot 6 odd weeks ago but only bought back 25% (in volume) of what I sold. Not game to buy too much more


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## qldfrog (19 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> That's an interesting thought and I have to admit I don't like the idea. If I want to sell at a heavy discounted price and there is a buyer then I'd like to make the trade. I'd be very frustrated if ASX stepped in to stop the trade. I get they don't want massive market moves, but sometimes they need to step aside and let sellers/buyers do their thing.



They do already, I documented this monday on another thread:
I tried to sell SOM on Monday well before its trading halt, there was a buyer at a price but the lower I could sell mine was 15c above that price.I sold 1 share at 2.3 from memory, and paid @10 brokerage
Now in trading halt...
Bell Direct reasons for refusing my sell request was : it would break ASX rules..whatever they are


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## MovingAverage (19 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> They do already, I documented this monday on another thread:
> I tried to sell SOM on Monday well before its trading halt, there was a buyer at a price but the lower I could sell mine was 15c above that price.I sold 1 share at 2.3 from memory, and paid @10 brokerage
> Now in trading halt...
> Bell Direct reasons for refusing my sell request was : it would break ASX rules..whatever they are



I had that issue with BD when I was I was trying to offload ZIM a few weeks ago. They don’t want you shifting the market


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## So_Cynical (19 March 2020)

I bought CSL during the GFC for about 24 dollars per share, has a long way to fall to get back to that price, WOW was like 3 bucks i think and CBA about 20 something, Mac Bank 18 bucks.

However many are back to GFC levels and under, question is what's the first recovery driver? Oil, Gold, Property, some of the REITS got hammered today.


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## jbocker (20 March 2020)

Bargains Galore. Yeah. No. But. 
...feels like we playing with more than one bullet in the revolver.


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## wayneL (20 March 2020)

All the leading contrarian indicators say we could get a sharp rally soon. But I still say it's going to be extremely hard to evaluate if any of the runners are/were bargains, until we get some sort of forward earnings picture. 

Ive bought a few microcaps I've been watching, but no big bets, loose change levels.


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## moXJO (20 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> All the leading contrarian indicators say we could get a sharp rally soon. But I still say it's going to be extremely hard to evaluate if any of the runners are/were bargains, until we get some sort of forward earnings picture.
> 
> Ive bought a few microcaps I've been watching, but no big bets, loose change levels.



I'm taking small bites at a time. There's a boatload of stimulus out there now. Sooner or later it's got to have an effect. There's also more and more good news filtering through on the virus. 
I was hoping market would tank more yesterday but it held up very well considering.


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I'm taking small bites at a time. There's a boatload of stimulus out there now. Sooner or later it's got to have an effect. There's also more and more good news filtering through on the virus.
> I was hoping market would tank more yesterday but it held up very well considering.




genuine question, what good news on the virus is coming through?


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## jbocker (20 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> genuine question, what good news on the virus is coming through?



I would like to know too. I hear that Chinas infection rate has dropped, and I don't think it is because of lack of available unaffected people. So why has it dropped compared to Italy's numbers that have overtaken China. I would guess it is a superior management strategy, but is there something else? Is there some element about a waning virus life span or potency. Do we know enough about what IS working. Media might be reluctant to look for this news just yet.


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## spooly74 (20 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> genuine question, what good news on the virus is coming through?




Seems there's been great success killing the virus in patients using hydroxychloroquine. An anti Malaria drug off the shelf.



"We show here that hydroxychloroquine is efficient in clearing viral nasopharyngeal carriage
of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 patients in only three to six days, in most patients. A
significant difference was observed between hydroxychloroquine-treated patients and controls
starting even on day3 post-inclusion. These results are of great importance because a recent
paper has shown that the mean duration of viral shedding in patients suffering from COVID-
19 in China was 20 days (even 37 days for the longest duration) [19]"

Killing it is one thing, producing a successful vaccine is the goal that will take a while.
Interestingly, Italy has not had hydroxychloroquine available sine the 1940's.


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> So why has it dropped compared to Italy's numbers that have overtaken China. I would guess it is a superior management strategy, but is there something else?   Media might be reluctant to look for this news just yet.




If China is providing their numbers there is no way I'd believe any of the "official" numbers coming out of China. Agree, about the media being reluctant.


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## jbocker (20 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> If China is providing their numbers there is no way I'd believe any of the "official" numbers coming out of China. Agree, about the media being reluctant.



Need a little caution with the statistics too, (after all every human on average has 1 ball). Stats due to lack of test kits and medical resources, not all are being tested, and therefore reported. Political masking of numbers would be hugely significant albeit now it seems there is less advantage to hide these, but still govts would be wanting to save face.


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Need a little caution with the statistics too, (after all every human on average has 1 ball).




That’s the funniest thing I’ve heard about stats in a while


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## moXJO (20 March 2020)

This isn't the original reason but stretched for time:

*1. Of about 80,000 people sick from COVID-19 in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged from hospitals*
Per the World Health Organization last week, "Of the 80,000 reported COVID-19 cases in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged."

*2. Scientists have figured out how the novel coronavirus breaks into human cells, which will help significantly in developing treatments*
After scientists revealed the first picture of how the novel coronavirus binds with human respiratory cells to produce more viruses, researchers in China have solidified images all the way down to the level of the atoms at the binding points, according to Live Science. With this news, understanding how the virus enters cells will significantly aid researchers in finding drugs and vaccines to fight the virus.

*3. Due to high levels of self-quarantine, Codogno, one of the two coronavirus clusters in Italy, has reported significantly fewer infections per day*
Compared to 35 cases per day at the beginning of the outbreak, just five new infections were announced last week by Codogno's mayor, Francesco Passerini, according to the U.S. News and World Report. “It is a war. It is a war, but we have every possibility of winning,” Passerini said. “Unlike with our grandfathers, who went physically into battle for our freedom, we are being required to show responsibility — responsibility and calm.”

*4. Scientists in Canada have made massive breakthroughs in an effort to develop a vaccine*
A team of Canadian scientists has finally isolated and grown copies of the coronavirus, which may now help scientists study the pathogen to develop better testing, treatments, vaccines, and gain a better understanding of its biology, the team said in a statement alongside the New York Post.

*5. China is testing five different vaccine options, claiming it could have a vaccine ready by next month*
Eight different institutes in China are working on five different inoculations to battle the novel coronavirus, according to the South China Morning Post. “According to our estimates, we are hopeful that in April some of the vaccines will enter clinical research or be of use in emergency situations,” said Zheng Zhongwei, director of the National Health Commission’s Science and Technology Development Center. While it's true that it would take at least 12 to 18 months to provide a safe vaccine to general public, under Chinese law, they could be released sooner for urgent use in a major public health emergency, provided the benefits outweigh the risks, noted the New York Post.

*6. Vaccination trials in the U.S. are already underway*
A trial of Moderna's vaccine has already kickstartedat Kaiser Permanente under Washington's Health Research Institute in Seattle, of which will hopefully confirm the safety of the vaccine prior to mass production.

*7. A team of infectious disease experts calculated the fatality rate of Wuhan's coronavirus outbreak is about 1.4%, drastically lower than earlier estimates*
While this estimate and data applies directly to Wuhan, where the novel coronavirus outbreak began, it offers a hopeful guide to the rest of the world as it notes significantly lower estimate of earlier stats around 3%. A full breakdown of the data can be found at Stat News.

*8. Distilleries across the U.S. are making their own hand sanitizers and giving it away for free*
Perhaps many Americans can calm down on the panic buying, as according to the Associated Press, distilleries across the country are using high-proof alcohol to make hand sanitizer, and divvying it out for free, or by donation to combat the novel coronavirus.

*9. Air pollution has plummeted in cities with high numbers of quarantined individuals, Venice's waters are running clear*
Analysts from the Washington Post have noted a drastic decrease in major greenhouses gases over Europe as individuals self-quarantine and cars stay parked at home. While it's little comfort to a country ravaged by the novel coronavirus, it highlights the impact humans can make on the environment. "I expect pollution to drop even further as the particles in the atmosphere get either dispersed or absorbed," Emanuele Massetti, an expert on the economics of climate change at Georgia Tech University who has studied Italy's climate policies, told the Washington Post. "In a few days, they will enjoy the cleanest air ever in northern Italy."

*10. A Johns Hopkins researcher has claimed antibodies from recovered coronavirus patients could help protect people at risk*
A treatment that can be made readily available under urgent circumstances, a team from Johns Hopkins alongside many other researchers are studying whether or not the antibodies of those recovered from the coronavirus could help protect at-risk humans from the virus. "Deployment of this option requires no research or development," immunologist Arturo Casadevall told Science Alert. "It could be deployed within a couple of weeks since it relies on standard blood-banking practices." Not to mention, a Japanese pharmaceutical company is nearing approval of the treatment.

*11. South Korea recoveries are starting to outnumber new infections*
Facing the largest epidemic outside of China, South Korea reported more recoveries from the coronavirus than new infections on Friday for the first time since its outbreak emerged in January, as a downward trend in daily cases raised hopes that Asia's biggest epidemic outside China may be slowing, according to India Today.

*12. China is getting its feet back on the ground, opening parks and athletics, loosening travel restrictions*
As the novel coronavirus comes under control in China, parks and tourist attractions have reopened across the country, alongside loosened travel restrictions. "The National Health Commission said on Thursday that the outbreak had passed its peak, and the figures appear to support its claim," said the South China Morning Post. "On Friday, authorities in mainland China reported just 11 new Covid-19 cases, of which four were in Hubei." According to ESPN, even professional basketball has reemerged  in Asia.

*13. China has also closed its last coronavirus hospital, not enough new cases to support them*
China has shut down all 16 temporary coronavirus hospitals in Wuhan as cases of coronavirus have began to dwindle. "The final group of 49 patients walked out of the Wuchang temporary hospital in the capital of Hubei province on Tuesday afternoon to cheers," according to the Xinhua news agency.

*14. Australian researchers are in the midst of testing two drugs as cures to the virus*
Scientists in Australia claim to have identified how the body's immune system fights the novel coronavirus. Published in Nature Medicine journal on Tuesday, the research shows people are recovering from the virus like they would from the flu. "This [discovery] is important because it is the first time where we are really understanding how our immune system fights novel coronavirus," study co-author Prof Katherine Kedzierska told BBC News.

*15. Numerous businesses have stepped up to solve the crisis*
Restaurants, sports, and businesses are all stepping up to combat the community effects of the novel coronavirus. The sports world is raising money for stadium employees, Uber Eats is divvying out free delivery to help independent restaurants, professional soccer players are entertaining viewers with a FIFA tournament, restaurants are doling out free food to those in need, and Bill Gates is funneling out millions of dollars to speed up development of a coronavirus treatment, to name just a few out of dozens.

*16. Apple, Starbucks reopening all stores in China*
While stores and restaurants across the U.S. have closed up shop, both Apple and Starbucks have reopened all of their stores in China as the novel coronavirus spread slows across the country.

*17. MetroHealthMedical Center has developed a coronavirus test that gives results in hours, not days*
"MetroHealth Medical Center becomes the first hospital in the state that can now test COVID-19 samples at its laboratory with results available after just two hours," released News 5 Cleveland. While supplies are limited, it notes a significant step toward expansive testing of the novel coronavirus.

*18. Scientists in Israel have also noted the potential to annouce development of a coronavirus vaccine within weeks*
Israeli scientists are nearing development of the first vaccine to combat the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. The vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

*19. A San Diego biotech company is developing a coronavirus vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore*
As the race to develop a vaccine for the novel coronavirus continues globally, the San Diego-based biotech company, Arcturus Therapeutics, is working on creating one at its lab. The company is working alongside Duke NUS-Medical School, a partnership between Duke University and the National University of Singapore. While developing a vaccine that works hasn't yet proven impossible, "The major challenge with vaccines is the size of the dose and the feasibility of manufacturing," President and CEO, Joseph Payne, told CBS8.

*20. A Japanese flu drug has proven effective in treating the novel coronavirus*
Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients, according to The Guardian. “It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.

*21. China has reported just one new domestic coronavirus infection for a second day in a row.
"*For the second consecutive day there was only one more fresh infection in Wuhan, the central city where the virus first emerged late last year," said the National Health Commission. New cases in surrounding Hubei province have now been in the single digits for the past seven days, down from a peak of several thousand per day in early February, said Daily Mail.

*22. Communities are coming together to help their neighbors*
Neighbors across the country are stepping up to make grocery runs for those who can't leave their homes. Local services have also reached out to the Seattle community to encourage those in need of help, to utilize the opportunities available to them.

*23. A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19*
After being treated for less than a week, this grandma is going for the gold as the oldest coronavirus patient to recover in China, and motivating elderly across the globe to retain hope.

A lot of the above is old news. But a few cures and vaccinations are coming online.

The malaria drug would be a cheap symptom reducer if it tests well. 

Not saying the market will hold. Just that there is some good news stories slowly coming out.


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> This isn't the original reason but stretched for time:
> 
> *1. Of about 80,000 people sick from COVID-19 in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged from hospitals*
> Per the World Health Organization last week, "Of the 80,000 reported COVID-19 cases in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged."
> ...




Thanks for the summary, I admit it is pretty amazing just how quickly some of the global research groups are moving to tackle this virus....but it seems regrettable that the major media outlets in Oz are more concerned about running a 24/7 story on what products are running out at the supermarkets (which only serves to further fuel the idiotic behavior of panic buying) instead of some genuine news regarding progress being made by researchers to tackle this virus. At some point when all this crap is over I would really like to see the media being held accountable for their irresponsible behavior in prompting panic in the public.


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## Smurf1976 (20 March 2020)

rederob said:


> However, from a longer term perspective the average consumer's buying power will be hit hard and that is likely to be reflected in WOW's bottom line. Additionally, while all the supermarkets are presently going gangbusters, those customers stockpiling the staples at present will not be returning until they have run them down, so the net effect is relatively flat.




Also there's the issue that WOW owns things other than supermarkets. I don't have the full list but the Woolworths brand supermarkets aren't the only thing they do and the rest will likely be hit harder.


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Also there's the issue that WOW owns things other than supermarkets. I don't have the full list but the Woolworths brand supermarkets aren't the only thing they do and the rest will likely be hit harder.




supermarkets (not just woolies), booze retailers (DM, BWS and a few more), hotels (pubs), and general retail (Big W)


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## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

Stating small with a few entries 
ben, anz,qbe if inflation resurfaces and at historic lows


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## Movendi (20 March 2020)

Why are you loading up on banks? There's going to be a lot more pressure on them in the coming months.


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## Logique (20 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> This isn't the original reason but stretched for time:
> 
> *1. Of about 80,000 people sick from COVID-19 in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged from hospitals*
> Per the World Health Organization last week, "Of the 80,000 reported COVID-19 cases in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged."
> ...



Nice job moXJO.
Also:
_https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tion-data-shows-china-is-getting-back-to-work_
*Satellite Pollution Data Shows China Is Getting Back to Work*
_Nitrogen dioxide concentrations are rising again after a sharp decline linked to coronavirus. ..Bloomberg: By Jonathan Tirone, March 3, 2020_
...Nitrogen dioxide levels rose across China’s industrial heartland, according to the most recent _Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service data compiled by Windy.Com....
...The data confirms anecdotal reports that *Chinese workers are slowly heading back to their jobs*. The economy was probably running at *60% to 70%* *capacity last week*, according to a Bloomberg Economics report, *up from about 50% earlier in February*. ..._


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Stating small with a few entries
> ben, anz,qbe if inflation resurfaces and at historic lows



I really do wish you luck frog, but nothing is enticing me back into the market at the moment. May the force be with you


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## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> I really do wish you luck frog, but nothing is enticing me back into the market at the moment. May the force be with you



only a few packets and 10% of my super back in share, rest in cash and bonds ...after being burnt by ilb


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## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

*1. Of about 80,000 people sick from COVID-19 in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged from hospitals*
the other way of seeing this:
out of 80,000 people sick from COVID-19 in China,nearly 30% are still in hospital or dead,  months after the crisis peak
;-)


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> *1. Of about 80,000 people sick from COVID-19 in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged from hospitals*
> the other way of seeing this:
> out of 80,000 people sick from COVID-19 in China,nearly 30% are still in hospital or dead,  months after the crisis peak
> ;-)



is that meant to make me feel happy


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> only a few packets and 10% of my super back in share, rest in cash and bonds ...after being burnt by ilb



so ive been thinking about this "being in cash" thing. i'll admit it is a nice feeling AT THE MOMENT, but when we get through to "the other side of this" and inflation kicks in our cash won't be worth the paper (or polymer) it is written on.


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## mcgrath111 (20 March 2020)

Logique said:


> Nice job moXJO.
> Also:
> _https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tion-data-shows-china-is-getting-back-to-work_
> *Satellite Pollution Data Shows China Is Getting Back to Work*
> ...



I feel as though China gets wacked twice from Covid19. It started there, hence being shut down for several months. When they go to reopen the demand from the West has dropped off completely.


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## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> so ive been thinking about this "being in cash" thing. i'll admit it is a nice feeling AT THE MOMENT, but when we get through to "the other side of this" and inflation kicks in our cash won't be worth the paper (or polymer) it is written on.



Capital guaranteed inthe super was returning some %, not bad vs bonds probably TD..
my own cash is in Bond mostly, and I played a bit in Gold ETF and miners..
only so much you can do to protect yourself, also paid my private health cover ahead for a year..before the increase next month...
a few hundreds saved guys, a reminder for you to act now, or cancel the cover altogether....


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## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

Movendi said:


> Why are you loading up on banks? There's going to be a lot more pressure on them in the coming months.



sure, not *loading *on these 2 parcels usually 2 to 4k, if I can get a quick gain, I will sell
Look at the number of people here talking up vaccines and treatment, helped by the gov propaganda..probably needed..lift the spirit..., we could get a mini rally again before hard facts crash..I also bought back some BBOZ earlier today....


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## moXJO (20 March 2020)

I'm not saying turn bullish. Just that some potential market turning events are filtering through. 

I want the market to go down more. It still looks pricey to me.


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## jbocker (20 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Thanks for the summary, I admit it is pretty amazing just how quickly some of the global research groups are moving to tackle this virus....but it seems regrettable that the major media outlets in Oz are more concerned about running a 24/7 story on what products are running out at the supermarkets (which only serves to further fuel the idiotic behavior of panic buying) instead of some genuine news regarding progress being made by researchers to tackle this virus. At some point when all this crap is over I would really like to see the media being held accountable for their irresponsible behavior in prompting panic in the public.



Absolutely agree Maybe media can change focus and watch the Cure Caronaviro Olympics as nations race  to win the Gold (Cold) Medal.
_(apologies to legendary commentator Norman May) My view represented on this graphic is totally biased._


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## MovingAverage (20 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Absolutely agree Maybe media can change focus and watch the Cure Caronaviro Olympics as nations race  to win the Gold (Cold) Medal.
> _(apologies to legendary commentator Norman May) My view represented on this graphic is totally biased._
> 
> View attachment 101539



Now there's a sport I'm sure we'd all love to watch


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## So_Cynical (21 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I would like to know too. I hear that Chinas infection rate has dropped, and I don't think it is because of lack of available unaffected people. So why has it dropped compared to Italy's numbers that have overtaken China. I would guess it is a superior management strategy.



China hard core lock down, built a hospital in 6 days with only like 10 dead...Italy ignored it for a few weeks and then only soft locked down a couple of towns.

In China they were welding the doors of buildings shut to keep people in unit blocks home.


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## hja (21 March 2020)

This one came up for me 2 days ago....
Alas the daily doesn't display.


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## charlsie (21 March 2020)

Like Metcash, have built new warehousing on new premises with state of the art equipment, but have now decided to sell and lease back due to current sitch.

F.Rock[/QUOTE]
Didn't SIG just do the same thing and when they announced it, sp went up 30% or so


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## Dona Ferentes (22 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> With all the panic buying going on, the supermarkets must be making a killing and putting up prices as well.



What I've noticed bis the aggressive price discounting has gone. No more *50% off * at the end of the gondolas for the 'much loved' labels (that were in competition with the house brands and no frills lines). This isn't of benefit to the chains as much as the, usually, multinational corporations that pedal their marked up product lines. 

What we're seeing is the 'revenge of the bastards' and the whole stupidity of RRP and other artificial constructs. 

The gutting out of local companies (a few like Bega are the exception) has come back to bite us. Big Time.


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## sptrawler (22 March 2020)

I was talking to a friend today, who is very price conscious, he said the smaller supermarkets are 'jacking' their prices for meat and veg in the last few days.


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## frugal.rock (22 March 2020)

I noticed that 'prices aren't down' anymore. Noticed veg prices up.
I had bought some UHT milk from IGA before the rush and panic and was $1 per litre. A few days later it was $1.25... don't think you can get it now... the full cream emptied first, lite and skim was available, then it was only skim, not sure if skim available now. Still able to get fresh though, for how long is anyone's guess.
Pretty sad if the supermarket chains are taking advantage of the situation... but it wouldn't surprise me.
I suspect a lot of things have gone up in price, 5 to 25%.... half a regular cabbage was $5... vultures.
F.Rock


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## frugal.rock (22 March 2020)

charlsie said:


> Like Metcash, have built new warehousing on new premises with state of the art equipment, but have now decided to sell and lease back due to current sitch.
> 
> F.Rock



Didn't SIG just do the same thing and when they announced it, sp went up 30% or so[/QUOTE]

Was wondering why SIG jumped quite well, was considering a buy at 0.53, seeing as long term, this scenario would boost sales figures.
Didn't though as I am working on increasing my liquidity asap.
Cheers.

F.Rock


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## Iggy_Pop (23 March 2020)

After using the GFC for learning about corrections, was wondering what I should try and do in this correction. Plan is to use a bit of spare cash to do something with shares. I have been thinking of getting a parcel of shares based on airlines and tourism. Initial thoughts are - 
Qantas,
Air New Zealand
Flight Centre
Apollo
Ardent Leisure

Thoughts are the airlines are likely to be bailed out by government and will recover. Flight Centre is big enough to survive and should go ok. Apollo and ardent leisure are possible bankruptcy but if they survive would be 5 - 10 baggers. 
Stockland is another possibility but would be longer term as many shops will go broke. 

Thinking is Flight Centre, Air New Zealand and Qantas, should be 2 - 3 baggers over one to two years and with Apollo and Ardent higher risk, I could pick up a reasonable outcome??. Interested with what others are thinking as there is some fantastic opportunities out there. Banks look good and already hold a lot of them but the airline/tourism shares will reward much more. 

Iggy


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## frugal.rock (23 March 2020)

With online purchasing ever increasing, 
I would be very wary of Stocklands, Westfield's etc.
Bricks and mortar shop's days are getting closer to being numbered.
Unless rent's drop, there going to have half vacant shopping centres IMO.

F.Rock


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## UMike (23 March 2020)

Iggy_Pop said:


> ....
> 
> Thoughts are the airlines are likely to be bailed out by government and will recover. .....
> 
> Iggy



 If this happens investors lose the lot. Read up ABC learning Centres.


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## UMike (23 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> With online purchasing ever increasing,
> I would be very wary of Stocklands, Westfield's etc.
> Bricks and mortar shop's days are getting closer to being numbered.
> Unless rent's drop, there going to have half vacant shopping centres IMO.
> ...



I own a restaurant in a shopping centre. Very few will survive this.
I believe peoples habit will forever change after this.


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## frugal.rock (23 March 2020)

UMike said:


> I own a restaurant in a shopping centre. Very few will survive this.
> I believe peoples habit will forever change after this.



Have the management come to you with any offers of rental reductions?
You may want to consider people power and talk with other shop owners and do the reverse squeeze on the centre owners, turn the tables on them, gang up....or they are going to have a bunch of empty space...
Saw a young lady on the news, she had poured her heart and soul and finances into getting her shop established, then this. 
They wrapped it before she was obviously about to burst into tears.
It break's your heart.
F.Rock


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## UMike (23 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Have the management come to you with any offers of rental reductions?
> You may want to consider people power and talk with other shop owners and do the reverse squeeze on the centre owners, turn the tables on them, gang up....or they are going to have a bunch of empty space...
> F.Rock



Ahaaaahaa Ahaaa haaa haaaaar.

Seriously........ The world has gone all hysterical and Mad at the moment. Although My accountant has told me to start negotiating.
Looked over the lease and the Centres Lawyers have everything covered.

There is a time and a place for everything so I'll wait till the full extent of the damage is clearer.
Already a few have walked away. Many more will and I assume it strengthen my position.

The more this goes the more I learn people are only thinking about themselves and are short sighted. There will be no "People Power" here. Yes I tried.


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## Triple B (23 March 2020)

From page 1


frugal.rock said:


> Slammed like a puffer fish on the jetty!


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## frugal.rock (24 March 2020)

Triple B said:


> From page 1



Yea, afterpay, there was a brief window of opportunity to sell at a small profit a day or two later... didn't have an order in and was busy.
Missed out... slammed again!


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## MrChow (24 March 2020)

Looks like FLT and WEB aren't better than cruiselines!  That happened so quick.

I have a tentative watchlist to make a pool of risk / reward stocks: Using an estimate of what 'return to normal' earnings may look like and calculated PE and PEV (which adds net debt to market cap).

AKG - 6 PE 6 PEV
ANZ - 6 PE 6 PEV
CTD - 6 PE 6 PEV
EXP - 7 PE 7 PEV
WBC - 7 PE 7 PEV
GEM - 3 PE 8 PEV
KPG - 6 PE 8 PEV
NAB - 8 PE 8 PEV
RDH - 9 PE 9 PEV
RKN - 6 PE 10 PEV
PGC - 3 PE 11 PEV
CBA - 11 PE 11 PEV
PTL - 13 PE 13 PEV
TNK - 8 PE 16 PEV

(just used the same figure for bank PE and PEV)

Previous examples of similar stocks from the GFC are:
- ABC Learning, Babcock and Brown lost 100%
- Flight Centre made 1000% bottom to top
- Breville made 2000% bottom to top


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## MrChow (27 March 2020)

Couple of blue chips I consider bad value:

Telstra priced at 18x 2022 earnings post NBN.  That's above my best case scenario post-Coronavirus so even its upside has more downside.

Woolworths 27x trailing PE.  Temporary boost at the moment but earnings will return to a normal cycle and a valuation return to the mean would result in PE contraction.


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## So_Cynical (30 March 2020)

Some of the REIT's look cheap, Dexus has no or at lest little retail exposure and down about 40% with low debt and long debt maturity.


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## aus_trader (30 March 2020)

Mining and Construction services provider came out of Trading Halt today and gapped down massively with news of loss/cancellation of NZ prison / Green Energy contracts due to disputes.



Makes me think it's hard to pick the bottoms in this environment. Not to mention how unhygienic it is


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## Dona Ferentes (30 March 2020)

Iggy_Pop said:


> After using the GFC for learning about corrections, was wondering what I should try and do in this correction. Plan is to use a bit of spare cash to do something with shares.....
> 
> Flight Centre is big enough to survive and should go ok. .....



Finding it hard to get back my $2.4K on tix to N America. I doubt it'll be passed to the airline, either. Sackings a-plenty and closures as would be expected. Deep down, the CEO thinks his nic _Scroo _is apposite, I suspect

FLT has about 30 brands; some are going gangbusters. *99 Bikes *is seeing stock ride out the door. (contact-reducing commuting; make sure you keep those peletons separate, boys!)


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## OmegaTrader (30 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Some of the REIT's look cheap, Dexus has no or at lest little retail exposure and down about 40% with low debt and long debt maturity.



What are you looking at for REITS to be good value?


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## So_Cynical (31 March 2020)

OmegaTrader said:


> What are you looking at for REITS to be good value?




Share price? DXS is down about 40% but the buildings and tenants are all still there, prime office real estate.

DXS had big debt issues as did most REIT's in the GFC but not now, carrying very low debt and has a big pile of cash.


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## Smurf1976 (31 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> With online purchasing ever increasing,
> I would be very wary of Stocklands, Westfield's etc.
> Bricks and mortar shop's days are getting closer to being numbered.



I can see the current situation acting as a tipping point.

A physical shop for many businesses, especially the idea of having one in every suburb, is a bit like someone owning an old car. They've already got it, it's working, so they keep driving it. No chance they'd purchase that car now however, they've just kept it because doing so was the easiest option that required no effort or investment to do so.

Now that shops are being forced to an online model, it's like the person who finds themselves suddenly forced to get a new car due to a major breakdown, crash or whatever. They don't go looking for another old car like the one they had, they get a modern one and never go back to the old one. 

Shops being forced to change from physical to online is much like that. All the barriers both practical and financial have been faced and overcome by force, there was no alternative. Once that investment of time and money is made there's no reason to go back to physical unless the profit from physical is greater than the profit from online which it won't be if the rent's too high.


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## Smurf1976 (31 March 2020)

Iggy_Pop said:


> Thoughts are the airlines are likely to be bailed out by government and will recover.



I can see that government will want to get planes flying again for practical reasons, as a means of transport, but I'm not at all convinced that they'll be wanting to bailout shareholders of a failed company.


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## aus_trader (31 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I can see that government will want to get planes flying again for practical reasons, as a means of transport, but I'm not at all convinced that they'll be wanting to bailout shareholders of a failed company.



Also it might not be a widespread bailout to all airlines and their brands e.g. Jetstar, Tiger etc. So it might be a case of just keeping one national brand let's say Qantas the flying kangaroo to keep Australia accessible to the world which might be of national interest.
Thinking of Airlines, even the best ones could disappear as what happened with good old Ansett.


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## Dona Ferentes (31 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I can see the current situation acting as a tipping point.
> 
> A physical shop for many businesses, especially the idea of having one in every suburb, is a bit like someone owning an old car. They've already got it, it's working, so they keep driving it. No chance they'd purchase that car now however, they've just kept it because doing so was the easiest option that required no effort or investment to do so.
> 
> ...



I'd like to see the real cost of online reflected in the pricing .
- Packaging ... so much wastage, cardboard and esp single use plastic
- Delivery ...... how inefficient, a two tonne vehicle moving a couple of kgs
- Free return policy .... encourages capricious fickle behaviour

If the subsidies were withdrawn, and the real cost disclosed, then the playing field would be somewhat different.


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## OmegaTrader (31 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Share price? DXS is down about 40% but the buildings and tenants are all still there, prime office real estate.
> 
> DXS had big debt issues as did most REIT's in the GFC but not now, carrying very low debt and has a big pile of cash.



What about any of the other Reits?


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## UMike (1 April 2020)

OmegaTrader said:


> What about any of the other Reits?



You'd think Bunnings are doing pretty well so BWP'd be safe.


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## aus_trader (1 April 2020)

UMike said:


> You'd think Bunnings are doing pretty well so BWP'd be safe.




Hopefully. But you never know in this environment...
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coro...ronavirus-hits-economy/ar-BB11U4Gm?li=AAgfYrC


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## frugal.rock (2 April 2020)

NCZ may be a consideration?
Between Deutsch Bank group, Credit Suisse, and Macquarie Group, they own around 32% of NCZ.
Credit Suisse last increased their holding 27 march. 
Follow the money?

F.Rock


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## matty77 (2 April 2020)

Bunnings and Officeworks had an absolute BUMPER march in regards to sales and smashed budgets.

If they can continue to reduce stock and costs they are looking good for the long term future. Obviously if they close it will hurt them but I think worse case scenario is like NZ and trade only stays open while the rest of the store closes. Bunnings are also working towards this on a bay by bay basis in an effort to keep parts of the store open if possible.

WES pricing doesn't tend to do much though, so I wouldn't expect anything different in this case except business as usual and they will suffer like other retail eventually but nowhere near as badly.

Bunnings is also pushing hard for online sales, gym equipment anyone?


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## aus_trader (2 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Bunnings and Officeworks had an absolute BUMPER march in regards to sales and smashed budgets.
> 
> If they can continue to reduce stock and costs they are looking good for the long term future. Obviously if they close it will hurt them but I think worse case scenario is like NZ and trade only stays open while the rest of the store closes. Bunnings are also working towards this on a bay by bay basis in an effort to keep parts of the store open if possible.
> 
> ...




Yes I like their fighting spirit in these hard times...


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## angus3288 (2 April 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Yes I like their fighting spirit in these hard times...
> View attachment 101918



Yes I agree with BWP but they have to drop back below $3
Look at industrial Reits with low debt


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## frugal.rock (2 April 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> NCZ may be a consideration?
> Between Deutsch Bank group, Credit Suisse, and Macquarie Group, they own around 32% of NCZ.
> Credit Suisse last increased their holding 27 march.
> Follow the money?
> ...



Who's the Muppet leaving sell orders on overnight below $0.11 ? 
My bad. 
0.091 order already cancelled, but won't disapear until the morning...


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## aus_trader (3 April 2020)

angus3288 said:


> Yes I agree with BWP but they have to drop back below $3
> Look at industrial Reits with low debt



If Bunnings does close, even while keeping the back door open for tradies, I think the recent lows below $3 will be breached to the downside.


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## Vesper (5 April 2020)

aus_trader said:


> If Bunnings does close, even while keeping the back door open for tradies, I think the recent lows below $3 will be breached to the downside.




I think that is more an issue for Bunnings(Wesfarmers) than BWP given that I don’t think they are any risk of becoming insolvent and not paying rents.

However, I don’t like BWP as so much of their earnings in recent years has been marking to market increases of their property value (60% for the last HY). I don’t think this is sustainable in general and particularly now.


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## Dona Ferentes (5 April 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Yes I like their fighting spirit in these hard times...



Bunnings now, in anticipation, advertising 'Click n Collect'. In a big way. 

because if we do hit Stage 4, they'll be closed


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## matty77 (6 April 2020)

Worse case will be like NZ, trade will stay open but the retail side will possibly close... 

I think somes states will make it through without any closure, VIC and NSW might not be so lucky..


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## aus_trader (7 April 2020)

At this stage, My local Bunnings warehouse is doing a customer click count as you enter and they direct you in from one side only and ask you to exit through the other side only at the retail outlet. Could be to limit the number of customers to prevent crowding I guess.


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## frugal.rock (16 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Bluescope Steel. BSL.
> With our dollar going to rack and ruin for reasons unknown to myself, I can see that Bluescope may be a slow winner out of the sitch.



Shame I didn't buy any in mid March....
Any current bargains ?


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## Dona Ferentes (16 October 2020)

there were, as the thread states, _Bargains Galore_, back then. 20th Feb, 7162 ....to a month later, 20 March plumbed 4546. The fall was dramatic, and sustained. Hindsight is easy to pick that, because it was so fast, a rebound was inevitable. Bargains to the brave, though the fear of a W curve was a distinct possibility. But I'm not so sure things are that cheap now.

_ASX200 over the last 12 months_


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## aus_trader (16 October 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> there were, as the thread states, _Bargains Galore_, back then. 20th Feb, 7162 ....to a month later, 20 March plumbed 4546. The fall was dramatic, and sustained. Hindsight is easy to pick that, because it was so fast, a rebound was inevitable. Bargains to the brave, though the fear of a W curve was a distinct possibility. But I'm not so sure things are that cheap now.
> 
> _ASX200 over the last 12 months_
> 
> View attachment 113129



In hindsight it's all dreamy and rosy. But I distinctly remember buying very cautiously in April/May period thinking the market could easily turn back down.


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## Dona Ferentes (16 October 2020)

_*Stall speed was never too far away*_. I did similar, but mainly concentrated on the discounted rights and SPPs on offer as they can be short dated put options for retail (never waste a crisis)


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## aus_trader (16 October 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> but mainly concentrated on the discounted rights and SPPs on offer as they can be short dated put options for retail (never waste a crisis)



Err... wouldn't they be like call options ?


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## Dona Ferentes (16 October 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Err... wouldn't they be like call options ?



Call .. err yup.


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