# Gold stocks



## markrmau (26 October 2004)

Could I have opinions on gold stocks?

I was in LHG but jumped out at 1.25 today because UBS reported that the production costs were slightly higher than expected, and because most other brokers have a sell on LHG.

Perhaps I was a bit hasty in pulling out though.

What about OXR, MNR?

It seems there is a crowd of us bullish on gold!


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## Profitseeker (5 June 2005)

Gold stocks have taken a bit of a battering recently. The purpose of this thread is to see what gold stocks people are holding, which gold stocks people think are going to go up or down and what the general consensus for gold stocks is. Also if anyone knows of any 1cent gold stocks that are about to make brillant drilling discoveries, please feel free to share.


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## Profitseeker (5 June 2005)

I hold:


NCM: Have recently bougt more in the share price dip. I believe the market over reacted and that longterm they have a fair way to go. I have read a lot of broker reports that generally value the stock at the $20-$22 mark and state that NCM is undervalued compared to it's American counter parts.
Current price 14.30. Short term target: $15 Long term target: $20 


BDG: Have gold in the ground. Advanced their production date and plan to start producing gold in early 2006. Can only see this stock going up the closer we get to production.
Currently :$0.95  Long term target:$2.00

I like the look of:

CRS: I don't know too much about this stock ( would love to hear from anyone that follows it carefully).  Seen it drop sharply recently although I belive it already produces gold and has been touted as a potential take over target.

I don't like the look of:

LHG: Only one mine and in area of regional uncertainty. Not much chance of them discovering more gold or expanding.



These views are all opinions and should only be viewed as such.


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## skin (6 June 2005)

RMS
Presently in a trading halt until Wednesday, High this year of 17.5 cents presently trading at 12 cents.  Announcement of a spectacular gold find in Wattle Dam and are presently recalculating reserves and reinterpretating finds - expect to report finds soon - this may be the reason for the halt.  Will be keeping an eye on this - I do not hold.


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## krisbarry (6 June 2005)

skin said:
			
		

> RMS
> Presently in a trading halt until Wednesday, High this year of 17.5 cents presently trading at 12 cents.  Announcement of a spectacular gold find in Wattle Dam and are presently recalculating reserves and reinterpretating finds - expect to report finds soon - this may be the reason for the halt.  Will be keeping an eye on this - I do not hold.




Be careful, a trading halt and recalculation, could mean a downgrade of the "Spectacular gold find"


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## Rafa (6 June 2005)

OXR...

Not a pure gold play, mainly interested me after their merger/friendly takeover of Minotaur (whose stock i held)!


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## mime (6 June 2005)

Well I only have one gold stock (mml) and it's been suspended from trade. People think gold is low but I don't think so. Energy all the way.


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## krisbarry (6 June 2005)

krisbarry said:
			
		

> Be careful, a trading halt and recalculation, could mean a downgrade of the "Spectacular gold find"




I take that back, looks like a good result, out of trading halt (visible gold)


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## bvbfan (7 June 2005)

Argh one of my favoured topics
 

two of the stocks mentioned i have problems with
CRS and LHG
LHG - location & hedging as well as being a one mine company
CRS - they have been running on low reserves for a long long time, they seem to find more when they need to but lately it seems that has not happened
Costs were also an issue I understand

ones that I like
OXR - okay not pure gold but I think the copper and gold will appreciate in the future
PNA - same as OXR but starting gold pour shortly, has already run a bit from low 20c area, so maybe a bit risky buying now

others I think have potential
AGC and DOM - I don't know the specifics but was rated a buy in the low to medium risk area by Hartleys
BDG and BGF - I prefer BDG but both look interesting, BDG more the long term option if they get to the 500,000oz a year production

there are some explorers which I'm watching, hold one at the moment but not a lot happening as its just getting into the warmer months when they can start drilling

Disclaimer:
I own OXR, have a few PNA left


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## TjamesX (7 June 2005)

Just one to chuck in the mix;

Equigold EQI

I haven't researched it really at all.... I heard it is a well positioned gold company.

TJ


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## johnno261 (7 June 2005)

I am currently holding Pan Australian Resources - PNA. I would'nt consider it to be a big Gold player but more so a big Copper player. First gold to be poured in the next 6 weeks and the income from this should help develop their next stage in this project being their Big Copper deposit that's expected to come online 2007.
I do expect Pans price to retest it's high of 34.5 and poss. continue thru to high 30's early 40's.My humble opinion!!

Lafayette - LAF is my only other Gold stock which is also due to pour Gold shortly.


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## Mofra (9 June 2005)

Johnno,

Howdy, just thought I'd add my two cents as a holder of both PNA and LAF - personally I beleive they are good for ST exposure to gold however as you said PNA is a big copper play (after the initial stages of the project) and I see LAF as diversified metals play (esp silver), also after the initial stages - the quoted cash costs of production for LAF alone are worth interest IMO.

Have also looked at EQI - EQIO may be a good way of gaining exposure for those looking for longer term pick - AGG's listing on the ASX could also be worth a pickup for anyone wanting to eliminate currency risk from a gold play.

Another VERY speccie one to look at is TTR - a feasibility study on the Phillips River project is due soon, they have a nickel mine (RAV8) due for closure at the end of this year and a gold JV that has just started producing, for which they are also earning management royalties. Copped a flogging after mid year announcements which stopped most people out of it so climbing back even on successful results could be tough.

Keep em coming folks, enjoying the thread.


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## bvbfan (9 June 2005)

Mofra said:
			
		

> AGG's listing on the ASX could also be worth a pickup for anyone wanting to eliminate currency risk from a gold play.




interested in why you think this?
They are predominantly dealing in Rand (for the gold sales) so why would AGG do any better here?


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## johnno261 (9 June 2005)

bvbfan said:
			
		

> interested in why you think this?
> They are predominantly dealing in Rand (for the gold sales) so why would AGG do any better here?



Yeah in agreeance with you BVB. I too am confused re:AGG


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## serp (9 June 2005)

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Yeah in agreeance with you BVB. I too am confused re:AGG




ditto.


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## mime (9 June 2005)

I've got a friend who thinks gold will go up because the US economy will sink. I disagree though and I think it will turn around because it has a right wing government in power. We can only wait and see.


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## Profitseeker (10 June 2005)

Greenspan disagrees too. After his bullish speech Gold fell and I expect Gold stocks to do the same  today. I wish I'd taken some profit out of NCM on tuesday. ahh! You live and you learn.


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## skin (10 June 2005)

RMS - moved early today on announcement - took 20% profit - hopefully get back in later in month.


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## Profitseeker (11 June 2005)

*NCM*

Newcrest has learnt from WMC's errors

June 11, 2005
THE board of Newcrest knows that its US rivals Barrick and Newmont, along with South Africa's Anglo Gold, have underlying problems and that acquiring the unrecognised riches of the Australian miner could be their only way out.

But, following BHP Billiton's acquisition of WMC, Newcrest directors will be saying: "We will not let that happen to us." 

But that won't be easy because Australian institutions put a value on Newcrest that is under half the value world institutions put on Newmont and Barrick. 

However, if and when Barrick and Newmont move on Newcrest - something to be considered seriously - they will need to open the bidding around $30 a Newcrest share - double the current price. And even that might not be enough to gain the recommendation of directors, given the value of Newcrest to Barrick and Newmont and the fact that in their hands it would be valued using international criteria. 

Of course, it is one thing for Newcrest directors to resolve to fight Australia's backward institutions, and another to actually maintain the rage in a bidding situation when each day the fund managers and analysts are attacking the target board in the press for not accepting the quick dollar. 









The WMC affair showed how an unprepared board could be trapped by this pressure. Newcrest has now set up a detailed manual that sets out each step to take in the event of a low-priced raid. 

WMC's enormous uranium and copper discoveries were transforming the value of the company as Xstrata made its bid, but companies do not get value for expansion plans announced during a takeover battle. 

When Xstrata first lunged, WMC lost valuable time calling for tenders to appoint a defending institution. By the time the defence was under way, WMC had already suggested that it would be for sale at prices that were related to the present market value and so the hedge funds were moving in for the kill. 

If BHP hadn't bid $7.85 the hedge funds would have flogged the stock, sending it into a downward spiral. To defend itself, WMC had to have a prearranged plan that set a much higher value benchmark, and simply not countenance a recommendation below that level. 

Newcrest will not make that mistake. WMC appointed Grant Samuel to undertake an independent investigation. Grant Samuel, in valuing WMC, tried to forecast future long-term commodity prices on the basis of futuristic institutional guesses but it also published a clear chart to show the effect on WMC's value if there were higher or lower long-term prices. 

It selected as a long-term copper price $US1.05 a pound (the current price is above $US1.40 a pound) and nickel at $US4 a pound, or about half the current price. The forecast long-term uranium price was $US22 a pound. Most now believe it will exceed $US30. Grant Samuel might be right about the future but by applying today's prices to the long-term formulas calculated by Grant Samuel, WMC is worth $16 a share, or twice the BHP bid. 

BHP chief executive Chip Goodyear believes there could be a correction in mineral prices but we are headed for a 30-40 year bull run. So even if there had been a setback BHP would have acquired WMC at a low price. 

Indeed, when addressing BHP executives Goodyear was almost emotional about the opportunities ahead for the company and the landmark growth signal that WMC confirmed for BHP. 

The BHP board went to Beijing, where clearly it is going to further button the company into long-term Chinese growth. Any repercussions that might have occurred as a result of iron ore pricing were stifled because the Chinese knew that their future power requirements would require massive amounts of uranium and BHP had in its pocket 38 per cent of the world's resource. 

As WMC was falling to BHP, Newcrest shares plunged because the company could not meet analysts' 2004-05 earnings projections. There couldn't have been a more stupid market reaction because when a company is commissioning plant to increase production substantially there are always difficulties. 

In this case, a piece of equipment that the company did not expect it would need until underground mining started should have been installed six months earlier to treat the above-ground production from Telfer. 

The shares recovered when the analysts thought that the short-term profit shortfall might cause a bid to be made. Unfortunately it is not easy to look after shareholders when many of a country's analysts are not up to world standard. 

Newcrest is set to earn about $200 million in 2005-06. In 2006-07 CSFB expects earnings of $308 million but, if current metal prices continue, profit would be around $350 million. It would have been even higher but for a decision to lock in prices during this high-borrowing start-up stage. Depending on prices, Newcrest is set to earn about $330 million in 2006-07, or $1 a share. 

American gold companies are priced on a PE ratio of around 25, which would make Newcrest worth $25. But Newcrest 2006-07 profit level is still depressed by the start-up stage and the hedging contracts taken out to protect itself. 

You gain a better idea of the mispricing of Newcrest when you look at output, reserves and costs. In calender 2007, when Telfer is completed, Newcrest's output should be about 2 million ounces a year. 

Barrick's present production is 5.5 million ounces and Newmont's is about 7 million ounces. And so, in rough terms, on a gross output basis Newcrest is headed towards being 36 per cent the size of Barrick and about 28 per cent of Newmont. 

But when you look at costs to extract that gold there is no comparison. The costs of both Barrick and Newmont are rising. Newmont's costs are between $US240 and $US250 an ounce and Barrick's between $US220 and $US230 an ounce. Newcrest's costs in 2005 are under $US95 -- less than half their rivals. 

This differential reflects Newcrest's high throughput mines and the high copper content in Newcrest ores. 

On the question of reserves, Newmont and Barrick have around 90 million ounces but with a totally different cost parameter to Newcrest's. 

Newcrest's ore reserves are 28 million ounces but it has resources of an extra 35 million ounces and it is now planning to spend the money to convert 12 million ounces of those resources to reserves to lift the total to 40 million ounces. 

Newmont is capitalised at $US16 billion ($20.8 billion) and Barrick at $US12 billion, Newcrest is capitalised at only $US3.7 billion. It's clearly worth more than half of Barrick and more than 45 per cent of Newmont. 

Of course, valuing Newcrest also depends on copper prices. According to Goldman Sachs JB Were, the current gold price values Newcrest at $US68 per resource gold ounce but if the copper is deducted then the value of Newcrest is $US36 per resource ounce. 

Barrick and Newmont are priced at between $US98 and $US97 per resource ounce. That's why you need to at least double the long-term Newcrest price to get into the American league. 

Of course, it's important to remember that Newcrest has not completed Telfer and hasn't proven those reserves, so clearly an adjustment needs to be made on value. But to Barrick or Newmont, Newcrest is worth well over $30 a share because it would solve both their costs and reserves problems and transform their profits. 

We should not forget Anglo and Africa. Half the African gold mines are losing money. The reason Barrick, Newmont or Anglo haven't bid is that they feared construction and start-up problems at Telfer and know the Newcrest board will do everything in its power to stop them from gaining it at anything like current values. And it is also possible that if Anglo, Newmont or Barrick bid one of the others will counter.


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## Profitseeker (11 June 2005)

Found the above article interesting for a few reasons. Yes the main one is because I hold. The other things of interest to me were:

Does this mean that most other gold stocks in Australia are undervalued. If so they could provide a lot of promise given that there is a lot of talk of consildation in the sector. (Also in above article)

I also found the critique of the australian financila institutions pretty interesting. Maybe I should quit my day job!!!


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## brerwallabi (11 June 2005)

Well gold has breached and closed above that all important technical resistance line 100dma of $426.80US and also the 200dma of $427.10US, I thought it might have made $430 this week,it looks like there is no reason why it should retrace to $450 over the coming weeks espcially if that euro keeps falling against the dollar.


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## Mofra (12 June 2005)

bvbfan said:
			
		

> interested in why you think this?
> They are predominantly dealing in Rand (for the gold sales) so why would AGG do any better here?



In my opinion, the best way to alleviate currency risk is to hold a few miners who have earnings in various currencies - most holders here would be holding Aussie stocks exposed only to the gold price in AUS$ - yes AGG have roughly 3/4 of their earning in rand and 1/4 in other currencies, but it does help the balance if you are holding mostly Aussie gold stocks. Perhaps I should have slipped a few others in there, sorry  

I have had suggestions to look at the Toronto Stock Exchange for some other decent gold plays, don't hold any yet but this looks like a reasonable place to gain an overview:

http://www.investcom.com/tse300/s&pgold.htm


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## bvbfan (13 June 2005)

Mofra said:
			
		

> In my opinion, the best way to alleviate currency risk is to hold a few miners who have earnings in various currencies - most holders here would be holding Aussie stocks exposed only to the gold price in AUS$ - yes AGG have roughly 3/4 of their earning in rand and 1/4 in other currencies, but it does help the balance if you are holding mostly Aussie gold stocks. Perhaps I should have slipped a few others in there, sorry




I agree its good to have some miners that have earnings in USD or other currency, but Rand was one of the worst as most mines in South Africa are marginal and with the strong Rand around 6.00 a lot of these were running at a loss.
The Ashanti acquisition may have helped AGG a little but the hedgebook they inherited would have been a concern too

I did have a list of possible Toronto listed plays but can't seem to find it now
I think NovaGold was one


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## chicken (9 August 2005)

The emerging gold producer after buying SWG gold assets for a bargain basement price, SBM....at present 13cents...capitalised at $75 million...with 9.2 million ozs in the ground must be the cheapest gold stock on the ASX...make your research......their assets are over $300 million....


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## brerwallabi (9 August 2005)

Chicken do more research -there are others out there which you can trade, good luck with SBM HOPE YOUR WAIT IS NOT TO LONG - gold is the flavour now.


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## Hanrahan (10 August 2005)

bvbfan said:
			
		

> I did have a list of possible Toronto listed plays but can't seem to find it now
> I think NovaGold was one



Gammon Lake is another, with good dirt in Mexico which, to my mind, is an excellent place for miners.

Another is Seabridge but all I know of them is that they have a lot of ounces in the ground but (a year ago) no plans to mine.

Note that I am not recommending them. They may be better at PR than mining.

H


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## chicken (10 August 2005)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Chicken do more research -there are others out there which you can trade, good luck with SBM HOPE YOUR WAIT IS NOT TO LONG - gold is the flavour now.



I just wanted to point out a stock which is dirt cheap...CHECK SBM announcement today and you will see what I mean....not flavour but common sense...remember ZINIFEX...my post,found it at SHARES magazine...also SBM....ZINIFEX is just rising and rising in price now $3.40 and still going higher....SBM has fantastic gold assets check it out since they bought SWG assest at bargain basement prices...check out the directors...all highly qualiefied in their field...company with future...and now GOLD producer again..with great managment..after all Tim Treadbolt who wrote the article knows as he is a Geologist journalist and so far he pointed me to ZINIFEX,and now to ST BARBARA MINES as stock with a future...when I mentioned Zinifex a lot of poster rubbished me well look at them now...so will SBM go....the market has just to confirm what is said and look out at 13cents its a steal....make your research


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## Caliente (10 August 2005)

One of my puppies, Oxiana (OXR) has finally broken through the clouds in full force!!! 

Gold Company of the Year 2005 but had a very mediocre time in the last few months. Hopefully on the back of this latest announcement they can cement their place further in the Gold Industry!

PS - check their diggers presentation, last slide. Some quality Paintshop Work there


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## ramjet (10 August 2005)

NMC - NuStar mining is another


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## brerwallabi (11 August 2005)

chicken said:
			
		

> I just wanted to point out a stock which is dirt cheap...CHECK SBM announcement today and you will see what I mean....not flavour but common sense...remember ZINIFEX...my post,found it at SHARES magazine...also SBM....ZINIFEX is just rising and rising in price now $3.40 and still going higher....SBM has fantastic gold assets check it out since they bought SWG assest at bargain basement prices...check out the directors...all highly qualiefied in their field...company with future...and now GOLD producer again..with great managment..after all Tim Treadbolt who wrote the article knows as he is a Geologist journalist and so far he pointed me to ZINIFEX,and now to ST BARBARA MINES as stock with a future...when I mentioned Zinifex a lot of poster rubbished me well look at them now...so will SBM go....the market has just to confirm what is said and look out at 13cents its a steal....make your research



Hi Chicken
I know all about SBM I have had some taipan in my drawer for a lot of years which I almost had totally forgotten about, best thing that has happened has been the unreliable ( changed my words from what I oringinally typed) SMB management has bailed out of taipan which is now NMC. Reasons I believe was needed cash, anyway check out all management of SBM I think that there is some old culture in SMB still left, went nowhere for years and now some quick make a buck yanks have arrived in SBM does not mean thyr are going to turn it around. If you think share magizine recommendations are the answer to my quest for a early retirement please pay my subscription and I will promise I will pay you back double. I hope I am wrong for your sake.


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## chicken (11 August 2005)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Hi Chicken
> I know all about SBM I have had some taipan in my drawer for a lot of years which I almost had totally forgotten about, best thing that has happened has been the unreliable ( changed my words from what I oringinally typed) SMB management has bailed out of taipan which is now NMC. Reasons I believe was needed cash, anyway check out all management of SBM I think that there is some old culture in SMB still left, went nowhere for years and now some quick make a buck yanks have arrived in SBM does not mean thyr are going to turn it around. If you think share magizine recommendations are the answer to my quest for a early retirement please pay my subscription and I will promise I will pay you back double. I hope I am wrong for your sake.



I think if you look at the directors they have all changed ,the intresting one is their legal counsel...who IS ALSO A DIRECTOR FOR ZINIFEX...dont you think their maybe a connection here I have a feeling there is.....as Zinifex are in the market in growing their group larger....just my observation....usually one plus one makes TWO....and as Zinifex are going along like a rocket a gold division with hugh upside and proven reserves are allways welcome especially at the present price..I am watching if there is a volume pickup......and perhaps I will be proven right..intresting


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## Profitseeker (11 August 2005)

Its getting exciting.


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## chicken (12 August 2005)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> Its getting exciting.



You can say that again....StBarbara the gold producer is to drill nickel target...this is what was said DIGGERS & DEALEARS KALGORLIE  St Barbara mines is about to start drill testing a nickel sulphide target north of Leonora thats said to have a similarieties with Jubilee mines bonanzCosmos deposit.
St Barbara CEO Ed Eshuys told Diggers & Dealers that the company believed its Sullivan prospect had a similar signature to the unique magnetic anomaly that indicated Cosmos.
The 8 km trend comprising Sullivan has been lightly drilled previously, returning assays in the weathered zone close to the ultramafic contact of up to 0.5%nickel and 400ppm copper.
St Barbara produces gold from the Southern Cross operations previously owned by Sons of Gwalia and acquired in March. Forecast production in 2005/2006 is put at 150000 ounces at cah costs of $415/oz , with the company working on significantly improving those numbers in future years....


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## Profitseeker (12 August 2005)

It would seem that you can get a good return on picking up resource stocks a year prior to them actually producing. Better make sure they are not going tyo suffer delays though.

Go newcrest.


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## chicken (12 August 2005)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> Go newcrest.



Profitseeker I love your comment.....SBM are producing gold they produced over 86000 ozs of gold in the last 3 months April/June from their purchase of SWG...now they are drilling for Nickel and that looks very positive...% wise this stock will give you great upside I have been in Newcrest bought at $1,65 and sold at $6.65 thought I did well...but SBM will give the returns within the next 6 to 12 months  at a higher %%% than you would ever achieve from Newcrest...DO YOUR RESEARCH....


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## Caliente (12 August 2005)

"SBM will give the returns within the next 6 to 12 months at a higher %%% than you would ever achieve from Newcrest"

Well my outlook isn't quite THAT optimistic, but hey, I aint complainin'

PS- strongest Gold Stock based on company credentials imho is OXR. The MD Owen Hegarty has the Midas Touch and this stock looks to be firing on all cylinders. 

Any other players in the gold segment that are worth a mention?


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## GreatPig (12 August 2005)

No idea about company credentials, but Tanami Gold has been nice to me these last few days I've held it 

Cheers,
GP


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## Profitseeker (13 August 2005)

I've looked at this stock greatpig. The reason I wasn't tempted was that they jut seem to explore. When they find a field of gold nuggets they just seem to sell it.


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## Profitseeker (13 August 2005)

Caliente said:
			
		

> "SBM will give the returns within the next 6 to 12 months at a higher %%% than you would ever achieve from Newcrest"
> 
> Well my outlook isn't quite THAT optimistic, but hey, I aint complainin'
> 
> ...





BDG


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## Profitseeker (13 August 2005)

chicken said:
			
		

> Profitseeker I love your comment.....SBM are producing gold they produced over 86000 ozs of gold in the last 3 months April/June from their purchase of SWG...now they are drilling for Nickel and that looks very positive...% wise this stock will give you great upside I have been in Newcrest bought at $1,65 and sold at $6.65 thought I did well...but SBM will give the returns within the next 6 to 12 months  at a higher %%% than you would ever achieve from Newcrest...DO YOUR RESEARCH....





A wise man once told me that you can not lose on a profit chicken so by all accounts you did do pretty well. Will look in to SBM. Not the first time I have heard about them.


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## Profitseeker (16 August 2005)

Price of gold came back a bit last night so I would expect to see gold share prices down today. In my opinion (*3), this will provide a good buying op before Gold goes on a bigger run.


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## Caliente (16 August 2005)

BDG - I'll take a look, nice little trend present there. ANy reason for the price collapse?

GreatPig- whats the technical name for that curve you drew on the Tanami graph? I've seen that kind of pattern before and it usually works well, god knows why?


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## GreatPig (16 August 2005)

Caliente said:
			
		

> whats the technical name for that curve you drew on the Tanami graph?



I think it's called a saucer.

Take a look at this thread for a discussion about them.

Cheers,
GP


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## Caliente (18 August 2005)

cheers GP!


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## Caliente (22 August 2005)

just spotted another gold stock on the move

WEZ



does that look sort of like a saucer to you GP?


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## Caliente (22 August 2005)

sorry I'm really new to the saucer concept but I want to apply it to some stocks, and gold is my favourite sector right now. Anyone with more knowledge/exp. please feel free to correct me/point out idiot mistakes etc.

Cheers
-Caliente


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## chicken (25 August 2005)

Just some news in re SBM St Barbara Mines....they have been drilling in some of the assets they bought from SWG...and just won a trifecta...I was hoping for that....one of their mines returned up to 85 gms per tone.....so they are even talking about an update of ozs of gold in the ground.....when they start drilling in the Sullivan for Nickel content this one is bound to go higher due to the assets,,,,check www.stbarbara.com.au  I am impressed...


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## chicken (2 September 2005)

I checked www.kitcometals.com  and GOLD was up US$10 to $443....US....looking at what everyone is saying...all gone long in gold futures


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## Milk Man (2 September 2005)

chicken said:
			
		

> I checked www.kitcometals.com  and GOLD was up US$10 to $443....US....looking at what everyone is saying...all gone long in gold futures




Could this be the beginning of the end for the US economy?


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## chicken (2 September 2005)

loakglen said:
			
		

> Could this be the beginning of the end for the US economy?



The USA economy is doing niecly....the storm will create a lot of work for people...its saying ,the gold up which was expected, that inflation will be up....another words the US $ will come down.....was also expected before the storm.....


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## dodgers (3 September 2005)

Perseverance Corporation (PSV) is another one, similar to BDG

Current 0.34. UBS target 0.47 

Good article from aireview here...

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=6&id=2160


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## tech/a (3 September 2005)

Dont know if this one is mentioned.

What you got on this Chicken?


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## GreatPig (3 September 2005)

BSG is one that Daryl Guppy is currently trading in his weekly newsletter.

Cheers,
GP


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## skin (3 September 2005)

Triako Resources (TKR) 

Following a report from Westpac Broking:- fyi........


"Forgettable Year - Patience Required

Recommendation:  Speculative Buy
Share Price:  $0.85
 FYE Jun   2002A  2003A  2004A  2005A  
Reported NPAT $m 4.5 5.4 8.0 -5.6 
EPS c 12.8 15.1 23.1 -16.7 
P/E x 8.1 9.7 7.4 -- 
EPS Growth % -33.7 18.0 53.0 -172.3 
DPS c 6.0 9.0 9.0 -- 
Yield % 6.2 6.2 5.2 -- 
Franking % 100 100 100 -- 

Event 
TKR's recorded a headline FY05 net loss of $5.6m compared to a net profit of $8.0m. Sales revenue fell 43% due to lower production and less favourable smelting terms. 

Gold output fell 56% to 25,630oz while copper more than doubled to 2,366t, mainly due to grades. A significantly lower proportion of gold was produced as metal compromising the realised price. 

The headline result benefited from a one off $3.4m profit from the sale of the 25% interest in ASX listed Buka Minerals (BKA). The adjusted net loss of $9.0m compared to a net profit of $8.0m in FY04. 

Net operating cash outflow of $0.6m compared to an inflow of $15.2m in FY04. At the end of the year TKR held $10.9m in cash and no debt. Cash and listed equities are worth ~40cps. 

Hera resources grew to 1.94Mt for 505,000oz gold equivalent. The estimated grade fell from 14.8g/t to 8.1g/t Au eq due to the use of a more conservative calculation method.

Impact 
Our valuation falls 6.7% to $1.40 per share due to the reduced resource grades at Hera, however, the new grade estimates may prove conservative. 

With the Mineral Hill mine closing imminently, TKR is an exploration and feasibility study play. The prefeasibility study set to finish in December 2005 should provide an indication of project viability. We are relatively confident of a go ahead due to high grades and ore value. 

If all goes to plan, a development decision on Hera will be made in 2H06 following the feasibility study results. Production should start in approximately one year later. 

Testing to date suggests Hera ore is readily treatable. 

Further exploration is planned at Hera and around Mineral Hill.

Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates. Note: Net profit and EPS are pre-goodwill." end quote,


----------



## tech/a (17 September 2005)

Nice


----------



## silence (20 September 2005)

I hold TGD (Tasgold).
It's my first go at trading, and it seems to be on a short term uptrend.


Fingers crossed.















Above post is not advice, recommendation, etc.


----------



## tech/a (20 September 2005)

Silence is golden.


----------



## silence (21 September 2005)

Indeed, hopefully very much so.


----------



## Profitseeker (24 September 2005)

BDG is gone up recently. I reckon it has a bit left in it short term and a lot long term.


----------



## RichKid (18 November 2005)

A great article imo on possible gold takeover targets from that great free mag, Air Review.



> More Resources Mergers On The Horizon?
> November 10 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
> 
> The ranks of major Australian resource companies have been thinned by takeover in recent years (think MIM Holdings and WMC Resources), and if recent developments in the global gold sector are any indication the numbers may soon decline further.
> ...


----------



## noirua (21 February 2006)

skin said:
			
		

> Triako Resources (TKR)
> 
> Following a report from Westpac Broking:- fyi........
> 
> ...




****************

Hera Project extended...

http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060221/pdf/3vj7kxr0zdq2m.pdf


----------



## domf (1 March 2006)

My picks for the year are NMC and NAV


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (2 March 2006)

BMO (BMA GOLD)

If further info on stock is required I will post, CBA has been buying up lately   

Excellent value at present (Short Term overhang off SPP @ 28cents)

6 month target: 50cents


----------



## nizar (2 March 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> BMO (BMA GOLD)
> 
> If further info on stock is required I will post, CBA has been buying up lately
> 
> ...




well since u offered, can u post more info please///

which broker gave that target?


----------



## carpets (2 March 2006)

that info would be helpful young_trader, 
just looking at the graph of BMO, it seems that it may be in for some short term consolidation before moving again. Much the same as alot of the other gold stocks at the moment. 

I like LHG for a longer term hold (say 3 years), possibly SBM and BGF. 

Also been looking at NEM and NCM, does anyone have an opinion on these?


----------



## noirua (7 March 2006)

Forgotten are Triako Resources ( TKR ) after a less than average performance in the last 18 months. Perhaps revival is on the way now.


http://www.triako.com.au/Pdf_files/0512Half.pdf


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 March 2006)

BMO is still my number 1 pick, although as stated stock will trade below 30cents until SPP is out of the way, so revisit it towards late March,

ARX is my number 2 pick, unloved/unappreciated Company backed by ANZ and ABMN Amro


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (10 March 2006)

BMO showing incredible strength to surge above 30cent level to 32.5c, given the overhang of the spp @ 28cents,

RECENT DRILLING 7m@94g/t  and 3m@240g/t thats got be some kinda of a supershoot!!!!!

Still will be pleasantly suprised if SPP doesn't cap price


----------



## sunboy (11 March 2006)

Good news of St. Barbara Mining. There should be a takeover in the next month. After the perfect result of the last year there are several investors interested in St. Barbara. The stock should reach the 1 Euro within the next weeks.


----------



## red (14 March 2006)

Can't find any reference to the "good news" anywhere, can you help Sunboy?


----------



## rpf (14 March 2006)

Wise-Owl have a target of 75cents for BMO. 

Also - Hartleys pdf file can be retrieved from BMA web site. http://www.bmagold.com.au/bmagold/Hartley Review Jan 2006.pdf.file?fieldId=6744


----------



## crackaton (14 March 2006)

sunboy said:
			
		

> Good news of St. Barbara Mining. There should be a takeover in the next month. After the perfect result of the last year there are several investors interested in St. Barbara. The stock should reach the 1 Euro within the next weeks.



Um what news? Why 1 euro? That would make it nearly 2$, can't see that happening.


----------



## nizar (14 March 2006)

crackaton said:
			
		

> Um what news? Why 1 euro? That would make it nearly 2$, can't see that happening.




hmm...

why not crackaton?

people were thinking last year when the share price was 10c: "50c? Why? i cant see that happening"

anything can happen

but yeh i agree with u when u say what news.... 

sunboy have u got any sources?


----------



## KaiserBun (14 March 2006)

Although not a pure gold player, and if so, a very small one. I believe RSN is still a good buy.

1st Gold mine in operation, resource upgraded to the mine to 500,000
Potential for a seconf gold mine with expected reserves around 300,000


----------



## sunboy (15 March 2006)

The story of the takeover of barbara mines comes from one of the most popular german stock magazines. If somebody is interested in, I will inform you in this forum  about the original text last week. Stock Goal: 0,60 - 1 Euro


----------



## chicken (15 March 2006)

sunboy said:
			
		

> The story of the takeover of barbara mines comes from one of the most popular german stock magazines. If somebody is interested in, I will inform you in this forum  about the original text last week. Stock Goal: 0,60 - 1 Euro



Sunboy...where do you get your exchange from..$1 EURO=2 DM..= nearly $2 Australian.....man check it before you post like that......or ring the BANK


----------



## sam76 (15 March 2006)

sunboy said:
			
		

> The story of the takeover of barbara mines comes from one of the most popular german stock magazines. If somebody is interested in, I will inform you in this forum  about the original text last week. Stock Goal: 0,60 - 1 Euro




I'm interested in hearing about the article Sunboy.

Although my German is a little rusty, would you mind giving us the jist of it?

Cheers,

Sam


----------



## chicken (15 March 2006)

sunboy said:
			
		

> The story of the takeover of barbara mines comes from one of the most popular german stock magazines. If somebody is interested in, I will inform you in this forum  about the original text last week. Stock Goal: 0,60 - 1 Euro



I looked at it again and I think you meant 0.60 Euros to $1 Euro...sorry about my  first post as I thought you meant A$....if that happends we are all laughing to the  BANK..bring it on.....you beauty...allways knew this is much to CHEAP..even at 52cents its much to CHEAP......


----------



## powwww (16 March 2006)

Anyone interested in a gold stock thats about to boom check out IGR.  

Enterprise value of $24.00 whilst the industry average EV is $65.00

Read their story you will be impressed by the company and their management.  SPP has pulled it back too but theres a certain reason for raising more money than expected...No prizes for guessing what that may be!

Check out aegis blue book  /  Martin Place securities analysis of the stock also if you're a patersons client check out their valuation. Expect some big insto support if we have a reasonable gold ounce upgrade at the end of this month....tooo


----------



## tican2 (30 March 2006)

*GOLD is up , time for GOLD stock ?*

Any good gold stock to be in ?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 March 2006)

*Re: GOLD is up , time for GOLD stock ?*

BMO,TRY, ARX

I know theres threads on BMO and ARX not sure if there is for TRY,

Gold $800 AUD


----------



## rederob (30 March 2006)

*Re: GOLD is up , time for GOLD stock ?*



			
				tican2 said:
			
		

> Any good gold stock to be in ?



tican
As a pure gold play, don't go past LHG.
It's not for the feint hearted; it moves more strongly up and down than most others, so is excellent trading material.


----------



## tican2 (30 March 2006)

thank you all for replies.

cheers,
tican


----------



## Nicks (31 March 2006)

I think you cant go past AVO. Good value imo. Based on the amount of Gold they are sitting on, the price of Gold, the preditctions on the price of Gold, and their joing ventures with ENR in Uranium I think this stock is incredibly cheap, just on Gold price alone x their deposits they are about to mine its cheap. Good time to get in now as I think the stock has potential for minimum 0.85c in the short term, and well beyond this long. Currently 0.66c.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (31 March 2006)

ARX breaking up again well, strong buy depth


----------



## Mumbank (31 March 2006)

Anybody know much about LEG?  I'm sitting on some and can't decide what to do?  Any thoughts on their potential - please


----------



## BraceFace (31 March 2006)

AGC - up 23% this month.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (3 April 2006)

URANIUM, thanks to China's hunger for energy and the visit of Premier Wen Jiabao, is the hot commodity for Australian speculators. So hot that Dryblower reckons a few of the locals are forgetting a metal that is a lot easier to mine than uranium, sells itself, and is moving higher so quickly that it might even spark a burst of takeover activity while everyone is facing the wrong direction.


The magic metal is gold, and last week's 3% price rise from $US565 ($A791) an ounce to $582/oz, did a lot more than deliver higher profits to producers – higher at least to those producers who haven't sold their soul in an underpriced hedging book.



BMO is my favourite, with ARX as my second


----------



## Nicks (10 April 2006)

AVO is looking very attractive today for Gold hunters.
Mining this Gold this year, owns joint Uranium ventures with Encounter, whose IPO was 0.20c a share and traded as high as 1.15 within days.


----------



## mlennox (10 April 2006)

sitting in OXR, BSG, BDG and LHG since the 23/03/06 

cant stop


----------



## crackaton (10 April 2006)

mlennox said:
			
		

> sitting in OXR, BSG, BDG and LHG since the 23/03/06
> 
> cant stop



That's nice but you forgot BGF and SBM and MMN.

PS I bought LHG at .90, OXR at .53 and BSG at .89. cheers mate


----------



## crackaton (11 April 2006)

600$ very close, and silver jumps to 12.68. great day ahead people!!


----------



## nizar (11 April 2006)

Gold@599.90.... just a matter of time b4 600 is smashed!!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 April 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> BMO is my favourite, with ARX as my second





ARX is no longer on my favourites list
I topped up @ 6c (original was 7c) and sold @ 6.8c for small proift,
Given hedging, cost overruns, delays and recent placement I will not buy back in it is no longer my 2nd favourite, 

Much happier to take the money and put it into my first favourite BMO, will be 60c soon!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 April 2006)

OMG @ $640 US/oz (current spot)

BMO recieves $640 @ 0.74 = $865 AUD

With Cash Costs of $250 AUD = Margins of $600 AUD
and production of 50k-60k oz's p.a.

Total Cash Margins will be around $30m - $36m p.a.


And yet it still doesn't reflect this with a market cap of under $100m, how long befoe the funds take note of this unhedged, debt free, extremely low cost gold producer? 

Probably when first gold pour occurs


----------



## Kipp (20 April 2006)

I never hear any mentions of MOE (moto goldmines) on the ASF.  Massive massive gold resources, but still a long way off production, and another problem is that they are in the Congo (not without it's corruption and civil unrest).  SP is very volatile swing up from 75c last Dec up to 1.75 now trading about $1.50.  Any MOE followers out there?  I am a bit hestitant to invest in companies now yet under production (AVO sounds good, but won't start till end of 2006) but I suppose this is a misguided philosophy...


----------



## Kipp (25 April 2006)

A total newbie question, but do unhedged producers actually receive the spot price for gold?  Or s it a similar scenario to manufacturers vs. wholesalers vs. retailers (e.g. Apple dones't get the full $550 paid for an Ipod).


----------



## Profitseeker (27 April 2006)

Faber says gold price may reach $US6000
Email Print Normal font Large font By Mike Firn and James Poole in Tokyo
April 26, 2006

Advertisement
AdvertisementMARC FABER, who told investors to bail out of US stocks a week before the 1987 Black Monday crash and began recommending commodities at the end of 2001, said gold might rise tenfold in the next 10 years.

"If the Dow Jones [index] goes up three times in the next 10 years, I think gold prices will go up by a minimum 10 times to something like $US6000 an ounce," said Faber, 60, who founded Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd and manages about $US200 million ($268.3 million).

The author of the newsletter The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report said gold wasn't expensive when "you compare its price to the quantity of money that has been printed in the last 10 to 15 years in the US and the world in general".

Gold for immediate delivery rose to $US645.85 an ounce on April 20, its highest in more than 25 years, as hedge funds and other speculators bought commodities to seek greater returns than from stocks and bonds. Former George Soros partner Jim Rogers forecast last week that gold would reach $US1000 an ounce.

The outlook for gold depended on how much money Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke "will print", Mr Faber said in an interview in Tokyo on Monday.

"As you know he has pronounced speeches about asset deflation," Mr Faber said, referring to Dr Bernanke. "He's concerned about real estate and stocks going down, so in the long run for sure he'll print money."

Pension and mutual funds are pumping record amounts of cash into commodities as China's booming economy stokes demand for oil and other raw materials, leading to a three-year boom in prices. The amount of money invested in index-linked commodity funds rose last year by as much as $US30 billion to $US80 billion, according to Barclays Capital. The amount might rise by 38 per cent this year to $US110 billion, the bank said.

Gold for immediate delivery reached a record $US850 in 1980.

Energy and uranium prices would continue to rise on growing Asian demand, Mr Faber said.

"Asian oil demand will double," he said. "We don't know whether that will be in eight or 15 years but for sure it will double and I don't think supplies will be able to match that."

Mr Faber has worked in Asia for more than 30 years. He served as managing director at the Hong Kong unit of Drexel Burnham Lambert from 1978 to 1990.

He did not rule out a big correction in commodity prices.

Still, that would not mean the end of the commodity boom.

"Between December 1974 and August 1976 the price of gold declined from $US195 to $US103," he said. "Then it still went up eight times."


----------



## chicken (27 April 2006)

I wonder if anyone checked out the SBM report.....ITS LOOKING GOOD...go and read it as 68cents for this stck is still cheap..GOLD is going a lot higher...I read that by the end of the year US$850....now that is not even what Mr M.Faber says...read the article posted before me...Intresting....and also I understand there is another announcement Imminent...could be the NICKEL resources....$1 no brainer...remember what I said on the SBM thread..when it was 11cents...I am holding for a lot more gain....


----------



## coyotte (27 April 2006)

young trader

re: BMO

this stock seems to have the same problem as most small mining 
 stocks  ie: share dilution 18m to 197m in 5years  !!!


cheers
coyotte


----------



## Profitseeker (27 April 2006)

Hi,

Changed my gold stock holdings around a bit. I now hold BDG, ALD BGF. I am very bullish on the first two. Bought the third one because of the weakness. hopefully got it right.


----------



## Kipp (28 April 2006)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> Faber says gold price may reach $US6000



 Bet ya $100 it doesn't....
I remember my step-dad saying something interesting once that if Gold prices ever reached $1000/ounce then it's commerically viable to extract if from sea water (which contains a pathetic .02g Au/tonne or something along those lines.)  Anyone else ever hear that? 

That aside, I really think $6,000 is not going to happen- just think of all the pissy gold reserves in Australia and the globe (<1g/tonne) that are not currently mined, forget about it....


----------



## bvbfan (29 April 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> That aside, I really think $6,000 is not going to happen- just think of all the pissy gold reserves in Australia and the globe (<1g/tonne) that are not currently mined, forget about it....




Do you know how long it would take to get these pissy gold reserves out by building a mine?
Thats the way the any great spike will happen, the supply won't be there to cover the demand and the reserve banks won't be able to help because they would have sold as per the agreement at much lower levels


----------



## crackaton (29 April 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Bet ya $100 it doesn't....
> I remember my step-dad saying something interesting once that if Gold prices ever reached $1000/ounce then it's commerically viable to extract if from sea water (which contains a pathetic .02g Au/tonne or something along those lines.)  Anyone else ever hear that?
> 
> That aside, I really think $6,000 is not going to happen- just think of all the pissy gold reserves in Australia and the globe (<1g/tonne) that are not currently mined, forget about it....




Did you know volkswagon engines are made from manganese and that there is heaps of it dissolved in the ocean? Did you also know that if you coated a bar of zinc with gold it would look gold? Also have you ever considered how many stars are in the sky at any given time?


----------



## wayneL (29 April 2006)

crackaton said:
			
		

> Did you know volkswagon engines are made from manganese and that there is heaps of it dissolved in the ocean?




Hmmmmm my dub's motor is made of MAGNESIUM. But it's only the crankcase.

Considering that mistake, I'll bet you didn't know that apples are part of the rose family, that bluebirds can't see the colour blue, the odds of getting killed by falling out of bed is 1 in 2,000,000, and tragically, 15 million gallons of wine were destroyed in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

This all has nothing whatever to do with Gold stocks, but astonishingly, you can make real diamonds from peanut butter LOL

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/2703diamond.html

Alchemy is alive and well. Maybe they'll crack the turning lead into gold one day.

Cheers


----------



## RichKid (29 April 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Hmmmmm my dub's motor is made of MAGNESIUM. But it's only the crankcase.
> 
> Considering that mistake, I'll bet you didn't know that apples are part of the rose family, that bluebirds can't see the colour blue, the odds of getting killed by falling out of bed is 1 in 2,000,000, and tragically, 15 million gallons of wine were destroyed in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.
> 
> ...




Very interesting Wayne, thanks for the trivia, especially the link on diamonds. Wonder what DeBeers is thinking atm?


----------



## kgee (29 April 2006)

Hey Kipp
 yeah I've also heard that there's more gold in the worlds oceans than anywhere else...as to it been achievable to extract it I seriously doubt it
I believe wer'e talking about somthing like 0.00001 AU parts per million I can't remember the figure's it was a long time since I read the book but basically you could do it by electrolysis but this would take massive amounts of energy...I've forgotten how to underline massive, but if I could I would...plus there's the conservation issue


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2006)

kgee said:
			
		

> Hey Kipp
> yeah I've also heard that there's more gold in the worlds oceans than anywhere else...as to it been achievable to extract it I seriously doubt it
> I believe wer'e talking about somthing like 0.00001 AU parts per million I can't remember the figure's it was a long time since I read the book but basically you could do it by electrolysis but this would take massive amounts of energy...I've forgotten how to underline massive, but if I could I would...plus there's the conservation issue




OMG, that means everytime I've gone to the baech and swam, I've been swimming in Gold? You mean there ain't gold in them there hills? but rather in yonder beaches?   

Quick to the ocean my friends where a fortune awaits!  :


----------



## RichKid (29 April 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> OMG, that means everytime I've gone to the baech and swam, I've been swimming in Gold? You mean there ain't gold in them there hills? but rather in yonder beaches?
> 
> Quick to the ocean my friends where a fortune awaits!  :




Good one YT, made me smile, this is like something out of a James Bond movie, maybe there is some despot on a deserted isle somewhere designing a gold making machine that uses seawater!?? Let's call him Goldwater, maybe he'll float it on the ASX...ok, so that was very, very lame.


----------



## wayneL (29 April 2006)

More pedantry and trivia  :

Densities of materials
metal 	            g/cm^3 	lb/in^3 	lb/ft^3  	 lb/gal 
water 	             1.00  	   0.036  	     62 	    8.35 
aluminum 	   2.70 	  0.098 	   169    	22.53
zinc 	               7.13 	     0.258 	      445 	    59.50
iron 	               7.87 	      0.284 	       491 	    65.68
copper 	             8.96 	    0.324 	      559 	   74.78
silver 	               10.49 	          0.379 	655 	     87.54
lead 	               11.36 	      0.410 	        709 	    94.80
mercury 	     13.55 	   0.490 	     846 	 113.08
gold 	               19.32 	     0.698 	        1206 	    161.23

The lb/gal column is used for comparison to a gallon of milk, which weights about 8.4 lb (it's mostly water).  If that milk were changed to aluminum, it would weigh about 22.5 lb.  If it were changed to gold, it would weigh about 161 lb (19 gallons of water)!  Did you notice that copper is heavier than iron?  A cubic foot of iron is 491 lb.  A cubic foot of copper is 559 lb.  Silver is even heavier than copper, at 655 lb for a cubic foot.  Gold is really heavy at 1206 lb for a cubic foot.  When you see a movie of thieves carrying bars of gold, you know they are faking it!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Good one YT, made me smile, this is like something out of a James Bond movie, maybe there is some despot on a deserted isle somewhere designing a gold making machine that uses seawater!?? Let's call him Goldwater, maybe he'll float it on the ASX...ok, so that was very, very lame.





Nonesense Rich, Money Penny has just faxed me the details, M wants me to go to the Tropics to find this GoldWater, the diabolical bastard plans to flood the world markets with Gold!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2006)

lol what am I doing?
Its 9.30pm on a Saturday evening, I'm 22,all my friends are going out to the clubs and here I am looking for some good gold companies given Gold has now broken out to above $650 US/oz

Sometimes I worry about myself, goodthing my gf's is coming over in half an hour to take me out, lol she hates all these investment markets, although she does seem to enjoy the lifestyle it can bring to those who are succesful at it, 

Back on topic, have been looking at a few other gold plays as I may want more exposure than just BMO, have a few on my list they range from pure explorers, to project feasibilities to on the way to production, who to choose, who to choose,

BDG, AVO, ALD, ARX, AAM, TTR, RED, NAV, ARE, LEF, CTO, OGD, TRY, RDR


(I have held BDG, ALD & ARX before)


----------



## hypnotic (29 April 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> lol what am I doing?
> Its 9.30pm on a Saturday evening, I'm 22,all my friends are going out to the clubs and here I am looking for some good gold companies given Gold has now broken out to above $650 US/oz
> 
> Sometimes I worry about myself, goodthing my gf's is coming over in half an hour to take me out, lol she hates all these investment markets, although she does seem to enjoy the lifestyle it can bring to those who are succesful at it,
> ...




Hello Young Trader,

Yeah i am looking for a gold company myself, it seems the gold price will never stop growing... $651 US/oz now, just crazy. 

Personally i think the high gold price may not stay for too long maybe for another year or 2? (that i am not sure i am just guessing, i know to know where is the demand for these things? why is gold price going up so much?)
I would think those company who currently have mines and producing gold, or those who are nearly drilling would be the companies to look for. What is your opinion on that?

Hypnotic


----------



## nizar (29 April 2006)

LOL dont worry YT, this will pay off, ur only a few months away from that e46 m3 or even wait a few more months and get the new Porsche 911 Turbo, they retail for 327Gs...

Dont forget LHG, seems to move well with increasing gold price..

Hedging is there, but only 200koz, the rest of the 670koz production target for this year sold on spot market, next year 800koz forecast with 250koz hedged only, and for 2008, 1million oz planned with minimal hedging..

Low cost producer (~usd250oz), looks set to benefit the most earnings wise of gold gets to 1000+usd/oz..

I like BDG also, 500koz pa for 20 years, low costs and fully unhedged... a good long term hold and no sovereign risk like LHG


----------



## crackaton (30 April 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Hmmmmm my dub's motor is made of MAGNESIUM. But it's only the crankcase.
> 
> Considering that mistake, I'll bet you didn't know that apples are part of the rose family, that bluebirds can't see the colour blue, the odds of getting killed by falling out of bed is 1 in 2,000,000, and tragically, 15 million gallons of wine were destroyed in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.
> 
> ...





lol sorry meant magnesium what was I thinking. Those old VW's go for ever.

Wonder how much valuable minerals are take from the sea through de-salination


----------



## crackaton (30 April 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> OMG, that means everytime I've gone to the baech and swam, I've been swimming in Gold? You mean there ain't gold in them there hills? but rather in yonder beaches?
> 
> Quick to the ocean my friends where a fortune awaits!  :




I've found many a metal trinket whilst combing the beachs and lost of other interesting stuf.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 April 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> LOL dont worry YT, this will pay off, ur only a few months away from that e46 m3 or even wait a few more months and get the new Porsche 911 Turbo, they retail for 327Gs...
> 
> Dont forget LHG, seems to move well with increasing gold price..
> 
> ...





lol, I'm actually looking to sell the car n get a Boxster S or Merc SLK 350,


Back on gold, I am looking @ LHG now, can't go back to BDG just yet, production is so far away (proper levels anyway won't be achieved until 2008)


----------



## Jay-684 (30 April 2006)

YT you have PM


----------



## professor_frink (30 April 2006)

hello gold bugs,
             just reading an article on gold's seasonal tendancies on financial sense- interesting stuff and well worth a read-

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2006/0428.html


----------



## hypnotic (30 April 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> hello gold bugs,
> just reading an article on gold's seasonal tendancies on financial sense- interesting stuff and well worth a read-
> 
> http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2006/0428.html




Fascinating story there professor!!

I guess that might answer some of my questions.

Definitely putting more research effort on some gold stocks.

Cheers,

Hypnotic


----------



## Profitseeker (5 May 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> lol, I'm actually looking to sell the car n get a Boxster S or Merc SLK 350,
> 
> 
> Back on gold, I am looking @ LHG now, can't go back to BDG just yet, production is so far away (proper levels anyway won't be achieved until 2008)




"The Company forecasts first gold production by June 2006, from the south mine at a rate of 120,000 ounces of gold a year. "

That is still a lot of gold to be selling unhedged into today's gold market. I really like BDG. They have lots of potential to upgrade their resources and even be taken over.


----------



## nizar (6 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Profitseeker said:
			
		

> You should look at adding some BDG!




Why would u want to do that?

LHG provides far better leverage to rising price of gold

Compare the movements of gold and LHG and BDG and see which one moves better - its LHG

120koz p.a is a joke, LHG is 670koz and 800koz... yeh people say its hedged but the hedging is only 30% of those figures, the rest delivered to spot market

I hold LHG


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## rederob (6 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> 120koz p.a is a joke, LHG is 670koz and 800koz... yeh people say its hedged but the hedging is only 30% of those figures, the rest delivered to spot market



nizar
I too hold LHG, and its hedge position has improved but is, nevertheless, diabolical.
In 2006 LHG will deliver 206.5koz into hedges at an average of US$330 - which is less than half the present spot price and is a loss of over US$70m at prevailing spot prices.
The reason I have been keen on OXR for some years is that Hegarty worked out that hedging was a losing game, full stop.  If a mine cannot make a profit without hedging, it probably should not be mining in the first place.
That said, LHG will still produce over twice as much "unhedged" gold as OXR in 2006, with relatively similar profit margins per ounce: That's why LHG is such a good gold equity to own.
Given that Bendigo Mining has yet to produce any gold, and its costs per ounce remain unknown, I prefer to stick with producers that deal transparently on hedge positions (if they have any at all).


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## nizar (6 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



> Hegarty worked out that hedging was a losing game




Maybe so but some companies need hedging to secure finance eg. SBM

I still have the view that LHG provides much better leverage to rising gold price, they will benefit most due to sheer size of production

Thanks for your thoughts rederob, i was actually not aware at the price LHG had hedged on, thats quite shocking US$330...   

Are next years hedged production also at $US330 ?



> LHG will still produce over twice as much "unhedged" gold as OXR in 2006, with relatively similar profit margins per ounce




I wish it was so, from their quarterly reports, LHG cash costs per oz was US$276 and OXR sepon gold cash costs BLEW OUT from an already expensive US$350 and last quarter they were *US$550*.... of course probably no one at the OXR AGM questioned Hegarty on it coz they were too busy kissing his a$$...  who cares if gold contributes only 10% to their earnings, costs blow outs like that still need to be questioned IMO...


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## Sean K (6 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Be weary of any one mine producer. Lihir hasn't a great record of getting it right. Nor has it been lucky. I bought this at 80c and have been holding my breath the whole time. Would be happier if a multinational took it over, but the PNG gov wouldn't allow that. Lihir will be one of the ones to fall the most on the next decent correction I reckon.  But perhaps, that will be another buying opportunity.


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## rederob (6 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> I wish it was so, from their quarterly reports, LHG cash costs per oz was US$276 and OXR sepon gold cash costs BLEW OUT from an already expensive US$350 and last quarter they were *US$550*....



nizar
I have LHG with total cash cost at US$340 and OXR at $348 for the March 2006 quarter.
Can you please double check your data as I have cut and pasted as per below.



> From Lihir's March Quarter Report: Cost discipline maintained with gross cash costs of $340 per ounce for the first quarter.






> from Oxiana's March Quarter Report: Costs
> Total cash costs for the quarter were higher at $348/oz reflecting the impacts of the changes in mine plan.


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## nizar (6 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

rederob

look at page 1 and page 3 of the LHG report 1st quarter activities dated 24/4, i dont know how to cut and paste from pdf, page 1 its on left hand side the 4th dot point and on page 3 on the bottom right

also wats the difference btw gross cash costs and total cash costs, i noticed gross cash costs is the figure of $340 as quoted by you

for OXR hmmm i cant seem to find it now u seem to be spot on with $348... maybe u were right after all sorry about the misunderstanding... i mustve read 550 somewhere.... but.... hmmm cant seem to find it now, i kicked up a big fuss over at S/S about this also.....


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## rederob (6 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> also wats the difference btw gross cash costs and total cash costs, i noticed gross cash costs is the figure of $340 as quoted by you




nizar
One needs to check each company's reports to see what they include or exclude.
There are no shortcuts as companies may use different terminology and different rules to account for costs, akthough ultimately the discrete items are usually identified somewhere.
Plain "cash cost" is easiest to use, but can obscure a multitude of sins elsewhere buried in the totality of production costs.


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## Profitseeker (7 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Why would u want to do that?
> 
> LHG provides far better leverage to rising price of gold
> 
> ...




Hi Nizar,

I do recognise LHG as a good play on the price of Gold. However if you are just buying a company to play the price of Gold then you might as well buy Gold. I think what you get with BDG over LHG is:

- Bdg is a stronger take over target. i don't personally think LHG is.
- BDG has bigger potential to upgrade existing reserves
- BDG presents less risk if there is a correction in commodity prices
- BDG operates in a country with low instability.
- People will start buying in to BDg in anticipation of it being a producer in June.


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## crackaton (7 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Profitseeker said:
			
		

> Hi Nizar,
> 
> I do recognise LHG as a good play on the price of Gold. However if you are just buying a company to play the price of Gold then you might as well buy Gold. I think what you get with BDG over LHG is:
> 
> ...



Of course, but I think this has already been factored in to the price. BGF is the same. The only way these will spike is take-over. Just my opinion.


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## rederob (7 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				Profitseeker said:
			
		

> I do recognise LHG as a good play on the price of Gold. However if you are just buying a company to play the price of Gold then you might as well buy Gold.



Is that a silly, silly, or silly idea?
You could have got onto LHG for a dollar one year ago.
LHG is now over $3 and gold has incresed in price by how much in the same period?
Bullion and equities "cycle" separately, so it is possible to have a foot in each camp and step heavier or lighter in time with their cycles.
But percentage gains in the better gold equities (ie the mostly unhedged ones) will continue to outstrip POG gains going forward.


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## Profitseeker (7 May 2006)

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Is that a silly, silly, or silly idea?
> You could have got onto LHG for a dollar one year .
> LHG is now over $3 and gold has incresed in price by how much in the same period?
> Bullion and equities "cycle" separately, so it is possible to have a foot in each camp and step heavier or lighter in time with their cycles.
> But percentage gains in the better gold equities (ie the mostly unhedged ones) will continue to outstrip POG gains going forward.




I am not discounting LHG or what it has done in the past. I am triyng to look at where i will get value  moving forward and protect myself from a correction in the price of the gold if it happens( i hope it does not). Also bear in mind that BDG was about 90c a year ago. That is still a good return in anyones book.


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## stockmaster (26 June 2006)

*Gold Price*

Price for gold has been up and down for the last 2 months, is it time for it jump back and start its new rally and reaching its predict price of 1000/ounce?

LHG & OXR are both major gold company, however OXR has jumped over LHG in term of capital for the past few months, what caused this movement and however LHG react to this change? Strategical review? Any prediction one the price for LHG and OXR for the next one month?


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## Sean K (26 June 2006)

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*

I thought your name was 'stockmaster'. You should be telling us!

The answer to the question is your guess is as good as anyone elses. It could go anywhere in a month.

My guess is sideways, consolidating under $600. 

But, really, anything could happen around the world. Interest rates, Korea launching missiles over Japan, Israel declaring war on Palestine, World Cup, Iran playing chicken with NATO, and JI launching another bombing raid in Bali could all effect the markets. Or not. 

Out from the next month though, it's going UP! 

I'll be buying more LHG, NCM, PSV and maybe BDG.


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## stockmaster (26 June 2006)

*Comparison*

The three main gold companies that i have observed which has a potential in raising for the next few months are LHG, OXR, BSG in the respective order. Any suggestion for its price in the next few months.


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## RichKid (27 June 2006)

*Re: Comparison*



			
				stockmaster said:
			
		

> The three main gold companies that i have observed which has a potential in raising for the next few months are LHG, OXR, BSG in the respective order. Any suggestion for its price in the next few months.




Hello stockmaster,
This thread is for general discussion and comparisons of gold stocks, some of the subsequent posts focused on LHG so I moved them to the LHG thread. Please read the posting guidelines (link at top of each forum) asap, thanks.


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