# Next big crash?



## mista200 (31 July 2005)

When do you guys think the next big crash will occur???


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## excalibur (1 August 2005)

mista200 said:
			
		

> When do you guys think the next big crash will occur???




As soon as everybody stops worrying about it!


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## resourceful_man (1 August 2005)

excalibur said:
			
		

> As soon as everybody stops worrying about it!




spot on !

I think most markets are at the top of the cycle now, but it will take about 2 years for the wealth to be squandered.
Sooner or later it all flows back into the pockets of the top 10%.


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## mit (1 August 2005)

I marked never. 

Not that I don't think a crash can't happen but I don't think the current market is near crashing on fundamentals yet. That's not to say that some major event could cause it to crash.

I think that if you have discipline and a reasonably good system you can survive the crashes with most of your money intact and in the last 30 years there always seems to be a way to make money in either the markets or property.

I only have XAO data back to the early 80s but what worries me is what I have heard about the seventies where the market barely moved and credit was extremly tight so making a return above inflation on any investment was very tough.

MIT


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## son of baglimit (1 August 2005)

it depends on what is defined as a 'crash'.
points record drops dont count, although the media love those big numbers, sending the lemmings off to dump their stock.
for my purposes, a crash consists of any one day move above 10% (currently +400 points) or 20% within 6 months (mid 02 to early 03).
the fun is pinpointing the low - it is fairly easy if you know what to look for.
for those interested, look into what happened the day the market hits bottom, especially intra day trading. there are tell tale signs.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (1 August 2005)

Crashes don't happen! It's all history.


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## bvbfan (1 August 2005)

I think 2007 will turn out to be a nasty year, just from things I've read over past few years.

I'm talking about the US, Australia will suffer but not as much I feel


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## resourceful_man (2 August 2005)

Investment is like an ocean tide, money flows in and money flows out.
We are some where near the top of the tide if you use history as a guide.
Sooner or later the demand for goods and services will start to shrink, the speed and nature of the retraction dictates the severity of the correction.

No one can say when this will happen or how severe it will be, the only thing you can say with certainty is it will happen.
Investment rules should help you ride the wave in, and be one of the first out when the tide turns.


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## Knobby22 (2 August 2005)

There is always a little crash, then perhaps 4 years later a big crash.
We had our last big crash not that long ago so I reckon we have a least 5 years.


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## salz (7 August 2005)

Look for the bubbles which will trigger the crashes...

1. High and ever rising property prices

2. High and rising Oil prices and resulting high commodities prices

3. Huge and bulging US deficit


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## DTM (7 August 2005)

salz said:
			
		

> Look for the bubbles which will trigger the crashes...
> 
> 1. High and ever rising property prices
> 
> ...




Add baby boomers retiring and needing access to their superfunds ie withdrawl of money from their investments in equities.


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## greggles (6 August 2018)

_Rich Dad Poor Dad_ author Robert Kiyosaki is predicting that we could be heading for the “biggest crash in world history”. His prediction came just in time for the Wealth Masters Tour in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne later this month that he is headlining. 

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...g/news-story/4672aa37ae875923f27a25adb9ce05fb


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## Darc Knight (6 August 2018)

greggles said:


> _Rich Dad Poor Dad_ author Robert Kiyosaki is predicting that we could be heading for the “biggest crash in world history”. His prediction came just in time for the Wealth Masters Tour in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne later this month that he is headlining.
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...g/news-story/4672aa37ae875923f27a25adb9ce05fb




Trying to promote his Seminars???


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## minwa (6 August 2018)

https://www.richdadworld.com/catalo...crisis_crash_ondemand.html?cart=&promo=BREXIT

He's been predicting a massive crash for years. Much easier to sell his courses that way as "massive crash" grabs more attention. Many years from now, after years and years of failed predictions, he will eventually get one right and in the future his biography/marketing will scream "the man who predicted the 20xx meltdown".


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## greggles (6 August 2018)

Harry S. Dent is the same. Always making catastrophic financial predictions and getting most wrong, but trumpeting the odd call that he get correct. Then he just conveniently buries the books where he got it wrong.


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## DNA2013 (18 September 2018)

An interesting retake on the excess credit growth in the heydays of the 80's economy if anyone has lived through it.

https://mywealthforlife.com/lessons-from-the-past/


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## sptrawler (4 October 2018)

Well they are on the band wagon again.

https://thewest.com.au/business/mar...r-reinforces-his-hawkish-stance-ng-b88981034z

My gut feeling is, the number crunching that can be done today and the experience gained from the GFC, will ensure equilibrium is found. 
I'm wondering, if the overseas players aren't pressing to put downward pressure on Aussie banks, then move in.
Just my thoughts


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## greggles (3 December 2018)

*Mathematicians claim ‘unprecedented’ global disaster is just years away*

https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.a...Dfiu71ptvv6KZq6a1wqUHGBZTx2cbBT_akrW1sO1_qke0


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## tech/a (3 December 2018)

However, Professor Drozdz also noted the crisis was not set in stone, and that it was possible to prevent it by altering certain behaviours.

“If the hyper-crash does occur, we will have shown the power of our multifractal statistical tools in a spectacular way. Personally, however, I would prefer for this not to happen,” he said.

“If this is the case and the hyper-crash does not occur, we will still have the quite acceptable interpretation that our forecast was … correct, but today’s press release will have influenced the behaviour of market participants and, well, we have just saved the world.”


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## satanoperca (3 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> However, Professor Drozdz also noted the crisis was not set in stone, and that it was possible to prevent it by altering certain behaviours.




If it is a simple as changing prime ministers, then we have nothing to worry about.



tech/a said:


> “If the hyper-crash does occur, we will have shown the power of our multifractal statistical tools in a spectacular way. Personally, however, I would prefer for this not to happen,” he said.
> 
> “If this is the case and the hyper-crash does not occur, we will still have the quite acceptable interpretation that our forecast was … correct, but today’s press release will have influenced the behaviour of market participants and, well, we have just saved the world.”




This statement when I read it this morning is "BRILLIANT"

Simply stated, if a or b occurs we are CORRECT, whatever happens our analysis is correct. 

Incredible that mathematicians can now credit themselves from saving the world or maybe it was divine intervention.

Great PR actual never the less


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## tech/a (3 December 2018)

Evidently they have also predicted or maybe not predicted An Ice age
An Asteroid strike along with melting Ice caps.


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## satanoperca (3 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Evidently they have also predicted or maybe not predicted An Ice age
> An Asteroid strike along with melting Ice caps.




Glad to see you understood my point.


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## SirRumpole (28 June 2019)

Will one Chinese bank failure create another GFC ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...ts-lending-threatens-chinese-economy/11252022


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## SirRumpole (10 July 2019)

Experts warn the government of stock market decline.

A good time to get out for a while ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-09/brokers-warn-of-imminent-market-correction/11289728


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## tech/a (10 July 2019)

So take precautions to mitigate risk.
But some of this stuff just fills Tabloids.


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## SirRumpole (10 July 2019)

What precautions will you be taking ?


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Evidently they have also predicted or maybe not predicted An Ice age
> An Asteroid strike along with melting Ice caps.




Three Rules @tech/a .

1. Pray you always wake up erect.
2. Never waste same. 
3. Be prepared for any eventuality in stock or money markets.

gg


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## tech/a (10 July 2019)

(1) Hell Id be permanently happy 
(2) The missus would be Permanently happy.
(3) Well there are Two eventualities Risk and Opportunity.
Takes care of 1 and 2!


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## Mr Z (10 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Will one Chinese bank failure create another GFC ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...ts-lending-threatens-chinese-economy/11252022




According to Kyle Bass the Chinese system has 42 trillion in debt, 22T odd of which is non preforming all sitting on 2T in reserves. What could possibly go wrong? LOL.


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## Mr Z (10 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Evidently they have also predicted or maybe not predicted An Ice age
> An Asteroid strike along with melting Ice caps.




Mini Nova... 2046, October. Supposed to trip off an ice age, not a worry though, I most probably will not survive the nova! LOL.


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## lusk (10 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Experts warn the government of stock market decline.
> 
> A good time to get out for a while ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-09/brokers-warn-of-imminent-market-correction/11289728






> Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe admitted in June he did not understand why the bond market was pointing to a recession while the stock market was screaming boom times ahead.
> 
> Generally, stock markets improve with the economy, so a rise in the stock market normally coincides with rising interest rates.
> *Right now, the exact opposite is true.*




Every expert is looking in the rear view mirror and making the call that a recession MUST occur because yields are inverted without considering that it may have occurred before without a recession.

When everyone faces one direction expect the market to do the opposite.


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## SirRumpole (12 September 2019)

Global debt threatens the Australian economy.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/debt-bomb-fallout-threatens-australian-economy/11505248


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## Value Collector (12 September 2019)

To me, interest rates look far to low to be worried about a stock market crash in the absence of some big event.


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## SirRumpole (13 September 2019)

Value Collector said:


> To me, interest rates look far to low to be worried about a stock market crash in the absence of some big event.




I hope you are right.

All it will take I think is another Lehmann, and there are probably a few out there lurking.


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## Klogg (13 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I hope you are right.
> 
> All it will take I think is another Lehmann, and there are probably a few out there lurking.




Not really. Every reserve bank has learnt the playbook now. Go early, go hard.

The Fed allowed  Lehmann to collapse. If a similar situation occured, they'd prop it up any which way they can... Convince a larger insto to buy it out at a discount, or start buying equity themselves.

They'll expand their balance sheet at any cost, basically.


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## PZ99 (13 September 2019)

Yep, kick the can even further down the road.


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## HelloU (13 September 2019)

Money is a synthetic human construct. No reason for money to follow any "laws or rules". 
Trade the trade.


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 September 2019)

HelloU said:


> Money is a synthetic human construct. No reason for money to follow any "laws or rules".
> Trade the trade.




Never a truer word said. 

gg


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## sptrawler (13 September 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Yep, kick the can even further down the road.



It will only get kicked down the road, untill they can come up with a way of balancing the books, to me the answer looks like negative interest rates and digital currency.
Time will tell.
What helloU said sums it up, money is only numbers on a spreadsheet, some Countries 'printed' money to stimulate their economies, the only problem is there isn't an instrument to devalue their currency and or their reserves accordingly.
That is the only missing part of the jigsaw.
When that gets sorted, it will work out, some might not be happy.
Just my opinion.


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## Klogg (13 September 2019)

sptrawler said:


> It will only get kicked down the road, untill they can come up with a way of balancing the books, to me it looks like negative interest rates and digital currency.
> Time will tell



The books are always balanced. The reserve bank creates a liability and buys the asset


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## sptrawler (13 September 2019)

Klogg said:


> The books are always balanced. The reserve bank creates a liability and buys the asset



That is o.k until your national debt far exceeds your GDP, then your currency should devalue, however when it is linked as in the EU it becomes problematic.
Also when your currency isn't floated, it becomes an issue, as with China.


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## Value Collector (14 September 2019)

This is a great video, by Ray Dailio.

It explains how the debt cycle affects the economy, it goes for 30 mins, So you have a chance sit down with a cup of tea and watch it.


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## noirua (31 January 2021)




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