# Probability calculations



## clinton (10 June 2005)

Hi Guys,

Just wondering if anyone knows and could share (using Excel spreadsheet formulas OR a website that does it for you) how to calculate the probability of a stock falling to a strike price. 

I am of the understanding that you need 4 things (all of which can be got from the ASX Theorectical Options Price Calculator) : the current share price, the target share price (the sold put strike price), the days remaining to expiration and the volaility. With these and some mathematical calculations you can get a probability.

Thanks,

Clinton


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## wayneL (10 June 2005)

peter hoadleys program does that:

http://www.hoadley.net/options


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## clinton (10 June 2005)

Thanks Wayne


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