# BKL - Blackmores Limited



## jkool (11 January 2007)

I searched around here for few times now and never seem to find any post regarding this excellent Aussie company. I find that rather suprising that nobody would be interested in it. Is it perhaps too boring of a stock? 

I looked at this share about 6 months ago at around $13-$14 on P/E 16 and I thought than it was dear but what to say now when the price is almost breaking $20 on PE of 23 or so. 

BKL is undoubtedly a great business and major player in its industry. It has great reputation amongst its customers and big stake of the stock is still owner by the company's founding family (i.e. their interests are aligned with the interest of a shareholder). To me all these are great signs of a stock for a long haul. 

I have also add some of my own analysis to my security analysis part of my Sound Of Gold web at http://sog.shopinthemall.com/ web if anyone is interested.

What is your opinion about this share?


----------



## Kauri (11 January 2007)

jkool said:
			
		

> What is your opinion about this share?




  Liquidity.....


----------



## jkool (11 January 2007)

Yes that may be problem for someone cashed up to their eyeballs But seriously around 10k-20k shouldnt be difficult to obtain/discard on daily basis however if you wanna trade it in/out very frequently than yes you better look elsewhere.

Stock for me its a buy and hold for a long term gain.


----------



## Kauri (11 January 2007)

jkool said:
			
		

> Yes that may be problem for someone cashed up to their eyeballs But seriously around 10k-20k shouldnt be difficult to obtain/discard on daily basis however if you wanna trade it in/out very frequently than yes you better look elsewhere.
> 
> Stock for me its a buy and hold for a long term gain.




Long term might be alright, but if you don't happen to be the only one trying to move 10k-20k a day it may be difficult.


----------



## TheRage (11 January 2007)

BKL is on my watchlist as are other quality companies such as ARP and HNG. Unfortunately these companies are suffering low turnover at the moment due to the commodoties run and in the shortterm are likely to be forgotten. I think there maybe some room for going long on these stocks if we get another correction like in May last year. BKL like ARP has consistent earnings growth and the case of ARP the Net profit Margin has actually been improving over the last 10 years. What this says to me is that companies like these are being managed by smart people as they have worked out how to improve their cost efficiencies not just expand to the hilt and do buyouts all day long.

Dislcaimer: This is my opinion and should not be construed as financial advice.


----------



## jkool (11 January 2007)

For me this kind of liquidity is ok because I don't see liquidity as a major hurdle in my investing. Of course it adds to convenience but doesnt affect the profitability or market position of the business which are my major concerns.

I would not pass on the earning opportunity such is this only because I won't be able to sell instantly. This company is making around 30% returns on equity in last few year. So if they continue to do just that or even if they underperfom by their own historical averages my money invested there would still be earning quite satisfactory returns.

Not sure if that make sense to anybody else


----------



## jkool (11 January 2007)

TheRage: We both seem to be fishing in the same waters as I am too closely watching both the stocks you mentioned. In fact I am just working on my own analysis of ARP as we speak. Personally I don't like their exposure to volatile car market. But this should really go to an ARP thread if there is one.

I agree with you on the quality of management as its one of my major requirements for an investment.


----------



## jkool (16 January 2007)

BKL upto 21.35 today trading than on P/E of about 25. No news from the company since 22 Dec yet the stock just keeps going up.

How does it look from technical point of view? Where do you guys have your next resistance / support levels?

Thanks

Jkool


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 January 2007)

Technically it appears that the time to get in to BKL would have been  late Sept/Oct 06 when it went from $14 to $16 and all indicators and moving averages went up and up. Its a bit ballistic at present with fair value agreed now at $21-$21.50. Any fundamental views?


----------



## Buffettology (10 April 2007)

No chat on this thread in a while.

JKool, you still holding BKL?  

Good profits were announced on 23rd Feb.  

I will be interested to see the returns of their investment into Taiwan, this is a very exciting time for BKL, and could mean much more international investment if the Taiwan venture is profitable.  

I am currently not holding BKL, but will probably put a small portion of my portolio back into the company tomorrow or the following day.

Great company for us long-term investors.  Its interesting to see the same names coming up in all the threads I am scanning at the moment.  Too bad I spent 12 years trading, before I became an investor recently.  Obvious long-term companies such as TRS, JBH, LEI, BKL and WOW would have made me a fortune!  Never will I go back to trading after discovering the keys of long-term investing.  Much easier to do, much more risk free, much more profitable in the long-term once compounded rates of returns are taken into account.

Other than that, I agree with absolutely everything Kjool has said.  Another buffettologist right there!


----------



## jkool (18 April 2007)

Hi Buffettology,

in true Buffett's spirit I still hold on pehaps "forever"  However I dont need to stress out that I am quite tempted to sell at current levels, even though I know that cashing in on a short term gain is somehow shortsighted. 

Since nothing seems to have changed in earnings or BKL's propective future growth and earning power, this stock is a keeper. There is not much news coming from the company lately (for me no news is good news  ) apart from the recent article in SMH:


> Date: 	12/4/2007
> Author: 	Margie Sheedy
> Source: 	The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 27
> There is often a lot of staff churn in the healthcare sector in Australia. This is not the case at Blackmores, which sells vitamins and health supplements. This company actively helps staff further their careers, nurtures them, gives them time to train for different roles and gives them family leave. Blackmores believes in nurturing the health and well-being of staff, who becoming living examples of the company's approach to health. Recruiters believe that companies have to actively work to keep staff. They cannot just give money, because many staff members want career development and flexible working routines. Blackmores is an ideal employer and others will have to copy it in order to keep the best staff.




So yes I continue to keep a keen eye on this stock in hope that Mr. Market is going to make me some foolish offer (eg. price drop to Sep06 levels would be welcome so I could grab some more  )

Did you manage to get in also? I think the stock (and overall market) is now overpriced so I wait on the sidelines for a while.


----------



## Buffettology (18 April 2007)

Yeah, BKL has been quiet.  

I did not get in, the price is volatile at the moment, jumping nearly 4% day by day.  

I think I will wait for "Mr Market" to make me a foolish offer also.  Perhaps on the first Wednesday of May


----------



## Buffettology (9 January 2008)

No talk on this one for a while, and for good reason, it hasnt been doing much.

But its getting towards the $20 mark again, which is a pretty decent price.

Anyone buying this one at current prices?


----------



## sutti (9 January 2008)

Blackmore's has always been a strange share. It still has a great growth rate of about 10%. It's balance sheet is in great condition and cash flow is strong. 

The company is undervalued a little and properly should be trading at around $24 again. There is no reason why it shouldn't be trading at around that price as their market is never really going to suffer as people need health care products no matter what economy we are in. 

I would say it is a long term hold - but then again I don't have any of Blackmore's shares.


----------



## michael_selway (9 January 2008)

sutti said:


> Blackmore's has always been a strange share. It still has a great growth rate of about 10%. It's balance sheet is in great condition and cash flow is strong.
> 
> The company is undervalued a little and properly should be trading at around $24 again. There is no reason why it shouldn't be trading at around that price as their market is never really going to suffer as people need health care products no matter what economy we are in.
> 
> I would say it is a long term hold - but then again I don't have any of Blackmore's shares.




It appears to be a good growth company with little risk

but might be a bit pricey atm?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 104.1 117.6 122.8 135.2 
DPS 81.0 92.8 97.0 106.7 *

thx

MS



> Business Description
> Blackmores (BKL) is focused on vitamin and mineral supplements and natural skin and hair treatment products throughout Australasia. The company also provides information services and carries out research and development into natural preventative health care.
> 
> Company Strategy
> Organic growth is driven by high levels of research and development focusing on areas where health awareness is high such as obesity, cardiovascular and joint problems. Offshore diversification is ongoing, particularly across Asia where the regulatory burden is lower. As production capacity at the new Sydney facility increases BKL will target additional regional Asian markets with similar demographics. BKL reported underlying FY07 NPAT up 15.4% to $16.7m compared to our $17.6m forecast. Sales revenue grew 16% to $171.7m driven by new product launches and strength across all business units. Gross profit margins firmed 77 bpts to 58.2% mainly due to improved sourcing and scale benefits in the production process. EBIT grew 21.2% to $24.2m with EBIT margin up 60 bpts to 14.1%. A final dividend of 46 cps is payable September 24, bringing the fully franked full year dividend to 81 cps.


----------



## Buffettology (10 January 2008)

I just snapped up quiet a bit of this at $20.40

I am thinking of picking up even more.  This is the kind of stock that is as solid as they come and is not going to dip much below $20.00 before springing up between $22.00 and $24.00 again.


----------



## TheRage (10 January 2008)

BKL is certainly one of my favorites. Comments like it is too pricey don't surprise me as it trades on a high multiple but at what point does too pricey become a bargain. Do you wait hoping for an Sp correction, which in the case of BKL will be very minimal due to growth and low liquidity, or do you buy hoping that earnings continue to grow. The answer is that you need to look at what your own required rate of return is and then you can determine whether BKL is an opportunity. Companies of quality very rarely present great buying opportunities unless they befall bad times. It took Warren Buffett a long time by his own admission to work out that a great company that is dear is much better than an average company which is cheap.


----------



## sutti (10 January 2008)

> BKL is certainly one of my favorites. Comments like it is too pricey don't surprise me as it trades on a high multiple but at what point does too pricey become a bargain. Do you wait hoping for an Sp correction, which in the case of BKL will be very minimal due to growth and low liquidity, or do you buy hoping that earnings continue to grow. The answer is that you need to look at what your own required rate of return is and then you can determine whether BKL is an opportunity. Companies of quality very rarely present great buying opportunities unless they befall bad times.




The stock price is still going down so you might be able to pick it up for a cheaper price in the next few days (thats if a few cents matters to your bottom line 

Your right about pricey part .... look at Google a few years ago when it was trading at $350. A quick few calculations with there P/E ratio and growth rate showed that they were undervalued by about 40% ... look where there trading now.

Once again, I don't know why theres not more support for this share when it has a fantastic growth outlook, dividends are fine for me and their balance sheet and cash flow is in sound condition.

All the best.


----------



## prana (10 January 2008)

Looks like Roger Montgomery's talk ramped the share price of Blackmore's quite a bit. Perhaps people have suddenly forgotten after a few months, what Roger's been drumming about as RoE and RoA capabilities. Just a side statement, I don't own or analyse, I'm sure it's a great company if Roger likes it.


----------



## TheRage (10 January 2008)

prana said:


> I'm sure it's a great company if Roger likes it.




It's interesting if you look Climes holding in CCP and TRS their payout ratio's are lower than blackmore's and therefore retain greater earnings as part of equity reserves. Shareholder Equity growth is the corner stone for real investment performance not just dividends paid out according to the institutional imperitive. Look at TLS they are currently paying out all earnings and using a bit more debt to provide a dividend. Therefore retained equity has not been growing but rather decreasing. How can a company's share price grow if the equity remains the same or declines. 

Blackmore's retained equity has been growing but perhaps not at a rate that I would prefer. However the amount that they do retain grows phenomanlly well. Look at it this way Blackmores pay us back 78% of the companies earnings by way of dividend. On current share price this relates to a return for the investor of 4.3%. On the remaining 22% Blackmores uses this money to invest into R&D, infrastructure etc. This 22% retained helped to increase earnings by 14% last year. Imagine if Blackmores kept all of the money and didn't pay a dividend how much the earnings would increase by. If the earnings are linear we could expect an increase of 70% in earnings if no dividends were returned to investors (I don't think it would be linear). A 70% increase in earnings would increase SP considerably, giving a far better return to the investor than a 4.3% dividend. I own blackmores and will continue to do so as long as Marcus Blackmore remains at the helm.

DYOR


----------



## prana (10 January 2008)

Buffettology "a company can earn more money on retained earnings than the shareholder ... the shareholder is better off if the company retains profits and does not pay them out in dividends." - says it all really  Unfortunately, a lot of people don't see retained earnings as earnings attributed to the shareholder, provided the company can compound the retained earnings in the same or better performance in the next corresponding year (RoA)


----------



## TheRage (10 January 2008)

prana said:


> Buffettology "a company can earn more money on retained earnings than the shareholder ... the shareholder is better off if the company retains profits and does not pay them out in dividends." - says it all really  Unfortunately, a lot of people don't see retained earnings as earnings attributed to the shareholder, provided the company can compound the retained earnings in the same or better performance in the next corresponding year (RoA)





Well said.

Perhaps some companies are just down right too afraid to retain more earnings. Or in the case of many it is easier to return money to shareholders than try find something to do with it.


----------



## Buffettology (10 January 2008)

TheRage said:


> Well said.
> 
> Perhaps some companies are just down right too afraid to retain more earnings. Or in the case of many it is easier to return money to shareholders than try find something to do with it.




Exactly.

Blackmores is expanding, particularly in Taiwan.  

What if it retains 100% of its earnings?  It cant just ramp up its expansion.  Their management has a plan and knows how much it needs to retain in order to acheive this.  

BKL is definately a long-run growth company. 

Good to see more fans of the masters work and not just commodity quick profit traders as this site appears to be.


----------



## michael_selway (10 January 2008)

sutti said:


> The stock price is still going down so you might be able to pick it up for a cheaper price in the next few days (thats if a few cents matters to your bottom line
> 
> Your right about pricey part .... look at Google a few years ago when it was trading at $350. A quick few calculations with there P/E ratio and growth rate showed that they were undervalued by about 40% ... look where there trading now.
> 
> ...




You have to look at risk, is BKL a virtually riskless company like google (risks to EPS)? 

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 104.1 117.6 122.8 135.2 
DPS 81.0 92.8 97.0 106.7*


----------



## TheRage (20 February 2008)

Good results. EPS growth at 20% despite impact of high Aussie dollar on international supply chain. I like the way management are growing this baby.


----------



## TheRage (30 April 2008)

Solid 3 qrt result. Net debt has increased considerably though due to construction of new facility. Debt/ Equity now at 30%.


----------



## RandR (5 February 2011)

Have been monitoring BKL for a while as its a stock i do like the look of.

Unfortunately its been trading at a price ive deemed just too high atm.

Anybody got any suggestions/calculations for IV for BKL atm, and through the year ?

For the people holding it already, what price would entice you to top up in 2011 ?


----------



## DocK (24 January 2013)

I've had this one on a watchlist for a while, waiting for a dip.  It's dipped over 4.5% in the last few days.  I can't see any announcement or news to explain the downturn, apart from API's AGM on 21/1 and a sharp selloff and recovery in their share price? Am I missing something?


----------



## galumay (24 January 2013)

RandR said:


> Have been monitoring BKL for a while as its a stock i do like the look of.
> 
> Unfortunately its been trading at a price ive deemed just too high atm.
> 
> ...




It interests me too, throwing it in my quick & dirty DCF valuer i get around $25 as current value. 

I wonder about competitive advantage also, not a lot I can discern in that market.


----------



## Ves (24 January 2013)

I think BKL's best days are behind it.

They're not generating super-normal returns on capital any more.   ROIC has been declining in the past five years (if my calcs are correct) and they have had to spend larger and larger proportions of their revenue on promotion expenses (ie. advertising, discounting, samples...).

Something to keep in mind.  Looks like the competition is heating up in their sector and they have had to start fighting harder. That's what the numbers tell me.


----------



## DocK (24 January 2013)

They've been spruiking them a bit on YMYC.  Apparently they've plans to expand into Asia, which would be another huge market for them.


----------



## Julia (24 January 2013)

What could be a factor to consider is the growing awareness amongst the population that these 'natural' products are not all that natural at all.  They are manufactured in factories, just as prescription drugs are, without the assurance of prior proper testing.


----------



## chops_a_must (28 February 2013)

Any thoughts on this stock after a sell off today on results?

Has been on my watch list for years, but never bought.

Had one of the best charts around until today.

Run out of growth?

Sales up, but margins down?


----------



## richbb (11 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Any thoughts on this stock after a sell off today on results?
> 
> Has been on my watch list for years, but never bought.
> 
> ...




BKL broke the crucial 29.50 range support today @29.01 close. It looks in trouble now. Up trend looks broking, if I currently hold this share, I'll seek to exit ASAP.


----------



## clinta44 (12 March 2013)

The issue I feel is that two major customers account for 33.50% of there total revenue, and 43.47% of the Australian segment. 

These customers have massive market share and power and are squeezing their shelf space and margins - on top of that Blackmores need to invest more money (advertising and promotional material) to maintain their market position. 

Sales in Asia have been growing nicely but these two biggest customers continue to take a bigger slice of the revenue pie (38.99% (FY11) to 43.47% (FY12) in AUS Segment and 30.79% (FY11) to 33.50% (FY12) in total revenue)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 March 2013)

Supermarket shelves are still full of BLK products, but their packaging hasn't changed in ages.  I also think consumers get wise to what works and what doesn't after a while.  Some of their products would work as advertised, but there would be a bunch of them that wouldn't be of any health benefit at all.  For example, who in their right mind would buy magnesium supplements?  

It's a huge market to tap, the placebo market.  They just need to change their packaging to keep it fresh and new looking....IMO


----------



## Daffyduck (12 March 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Supermarket shelves are still full of BLK products, but their packaging hasn't changed in ages.  I also think consumers get wise to what works and what doesn't after a while.  Some of their products would work as advertised, but there would be a bunch of them that wouldn't be of any health benefit at all.  For example, *who in their right mind would buy magnesium supplements?*
> 
> It's a huge market to tap, the placebo market.  They just need to change their packaging to keep it fresh and new looking....IMO




Folks that are magnesium deficient?  

It actually helps with the uptake of Vitamin D from memory, I'm not a nutritionist so I could be well off the mark there.


----------



## chops_a_must (12 March 2013)

It stops cramping.


----------



## skc (12 March 2013)

Daffyduck said:


> Folks that are magnesium deficient?






chops_a_must said:


> It stops cramping.




Lol... Alternate is to drink some tonic water which also helps ease cramping. I do that with Gin 

Vitamin / supplement is a massive category and it's confusing as hell the last time I went to a Chemist Warehouse type discount outlet. I think there's a lot to be gained from clearing that up with better display, new technology like a "what's your problem" type app etc. There's also plenty of opportunity for increasing direct sales - although that's always a tricky one as the distributors will probably be unhappy about you undercutting them.


----------



## CanOz (12 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> It stops cramping.




Thanks Chops...I suffer from cramping occasionally and a couple of bottles of Gatorade usually fix it up, i thought it was the potassium but now maybe i can look for a magnesium supplement!

CanOz


----------



## chops_a_must (12 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Thanks Chops...I suffer from cramping occasionally and a couple of bottles of Gatorade usually fix it up, i thought it was the potassium but now maybe i can look for a magnesium supplement!
> 
> CanOz




Ultra muscle eze would be the one to use.

Or endura if you want something to drink during exercise, without the sugar of sports drinks.


----------



## chops_a_must (12 March 2013)

I've never understood this space anyway.

You're not buying what you pay for with these highly visible brands.

Premium products are now at a comparable price, even with shipping.

And despite endorsements and so on, professional athletes still use brands like usana essentials, which do have much higher quality controls, and are independently tested.


----------



## Julia (12 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Thanks Chops...I suffer from cramping occasionally and a couple of bottles of Gatorade usually fix it up, i thought it was the potassium but now maybe i can look for a magnesium supplement!
> 
> CanOz



 The only cramps I get are when I'm salt depleted.  Having salt provides relief within a couple of minutes.
One of the negative effects of drinking excessive amounts of water can be the over-dilution of the electrolytes.


----------



## tinhat (12 March 2013)

Julia said:


> The only cramps I get are when I'm salt depleted.  Having salt provides relief within a couple of minutes.
> One of the negative effects of drinking excessive amounts of water can be the over-dilution of the electrolytes.




Same here - since adolescence. A couple of pinches of salt in a glass of water does the trick. I have heard some suggestion that magnesium can be important for sperm health (Zinc is important). A good diet should provide all the minerals and vitamins a person needs.


----------



## Ijustnewit (14 March 2013)

Great Australian company , I held these guys many years ago and got in at about $4.00 , Unfortunately sold out at around $21 when the GFC took it's toll. It was a Company founded by Naturopath's over 70 years ago and still is going strong. It's the qaulity  of ingredients and the strength of them that has given them the market share we are seeing. Their biggest breakthrough was a product called MACU-Vision , wich aids with macular degeneration and eye condtion that can lead to blindness. It's one of the very few alternative medicine products actually proven by science to work. That's when their shares took off , and that was at least ten years ago. http://www.blackmores.com.au/


----------



## Ijustnewit (14 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Ultra muscle eze would be the one to use.
> 
> Or endura if you want something to drink during exercise, without the sugar of sports drinks.




Both of these great products are made by Ethical Nutrients a Brisbane Company located near Hendra. They are the Pro-Biotic leaders also. A company that I think could be the next Blackmores , but is yet to list on the ASX . 
I'm waiting keenly for that day to come.


----------



## Sally 78 (18 March 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> Both of these great products are made by Ethical Nutrients a Brisbane Company located near Hendra. They are the Pro-Biotic leaders also. A company that I think could be the next Blackmores , but is yet to list on the ASX .
> I'm waiting keenly for that day to come.





Ultra Muscle Eze is actually from BioCeuticals, another great Australian nutraceuticals brand, recntly acquired by Blackmores.


----------



## VSntchr (25 August 2015)

It would appear that Blackmores has a proprietary steroid formula which they are withholding from the market and have been discretely giving it to their employees. :bounce:
This is just absolutely phenomenal growth. I haven't really looked at the company in extensive detail, but I do remember a few analysts calling it the end of the run for them at about $30.


----------



## ROE (25 August 2015)

Nice, I cant believe people pay for vitamin supplements
Most supp doesn't help IMHO, what helps is regular exercise and eat proper food but good for them they manage to be able to sell ice to the eskimo


----------



## sinner (25 August 2015)

ROE said:


> Nice, I cant believe people pay for vitamin supplements
> Most supp doesn't help IMHO, what helps is regular exercise and eat proper food but good for them they manage to be able to sell ice to the eskimo




I don't buy vitamin supplements, but I do buy one Blackmores product, it is called "Cold Combat". It contains the extract of Andrographis paniculata an Ayurvedic herb, the extract mainly consists of andrographolide, which is a simple diterpene lactone. I find it effective as an anti-inflammatory in a number of conditions, similar in effect to other lactones (like those found in Withania somnifera).

Recently the product was changed from a bottle of tablets to a blister pack of unrefined extract in capsules.

Good product. Just an anecdote from a happy customer who has always kept some on hand since I first discovered it.


----------



## ROE (26 August 2015)

I don't doubt some of the stuff are ok but the majority of Vitamin supplement are questionable and that where the money is, cheap to manufacture sell at crazy price

but gezz shareholder has to be happy with the performance and like the way they look after their staffs ..


----------



## skyQuake (26 August 2015)

Off topic:
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/play/snake-oil-supplements/
An interactive bubble chart showing the snake oil vs legit supplements.

On topic:
Price target raised $13% to $87 by Goldmans
Also, index potential add


----------



## SuperGlue (26 August 2015)

High of $103.44 currently.

Will it hold above $100?


----------



## luutzu (26 August 2015)

SuperGlue said:


> High of $103.44 currently.
> 
> Will it hold above $100?




Didn't one of the Blackmores sold some $7 millions worth when it was at around $48/share - to pay for his yacht and personal finances? That was only a few months ago.

Sales of $346M, net profit of $25M and it's worth $1.5B? 

That's insane. 

It might be understandable if its products could potential cure cancer or extend life by a few decades... but it's vitamin and supplements right? Maybe rich Asians and Chinese might be really addicted to Western herbal/vitamins but seriously, I think the market is way too optimistic on this one.


----------



## SuperGlue (26 August 2015)

luutzu said:


> It might be understandable if its products could potential cure cancer or extend life by a few decades... but it's vitamin and supplements right? Maybe rich Asians and Chinese might be really addicted to Western herbal/vitamins but seriously, I think the market is way too optimistic on this one.





With all the crap in the soil, air and water over there, the rich do need the vitamins and supplements to extend their life, as for the poor, well.....

Blackmores
NPAT $46.6m
DIV $1.35
EPS $2.71


I'm holding Healthscope shares, opposite ends on the Health spectrum and guess what. The SP dropped with the release of financial results today.

Healthscope
NPAT $153.1m
DIV $0.037
EPS $0.086

Comparing apples with oranges here, next time perhaps I'll choose a product/company that'll extend life rather then a fix upper.


----------



## skc (26 August 2015)

luutzu said:


> Didn't one of the Blackmores sold some $7 millions worth when it was at around $48/share - to pay for his yacht and personal finances? That was only a few months ago.
> 
> Sales of $346M, net profit of $25M and it's worth $1.5B?
> 
> ...




Your numbers are all wrong?!


----------



## luutzu (26 August 2015)

skc said:


> Your numbers are all wrong?!




Got them from Commsec. Was last year's figures.

Didn't bother opening up their latest annual report so maybe shouldn't comment, but yea... it's not going to double every couple of years and take over the world as its share price growth suggests though.

But of course I have been wrong on it.


----------



## luutzu (26 August 2015)

SuperGlue said:


> With all the crap in the soil, air and water over there, the rich do need the vitamins and supplements to extend their life, as for the poor, well.....
> 
> Blackmores
> NPAT $46.6m
> ...





The rich would already have all those needs met, they're not going to buy more because there's only so much vitamins you can take before it's harmful - I guess. Well... maybe they could grind it up and mix it in their bath water or something, haha...

But yea, haven't look into the company so just general comments. But at the current multiple...I'd take Blackmores lead and sell to buy myself a yacht or two.


----------



## Tyler Durden (26 August 2015)

wow, the last post before yesterday's was more than two years ago...how did this slip under everyone's radar...


----------



## SuperGlue (26 August 2015)

Vitaco, vitamin and health supplement firm to be listed.
Potential Blackmores?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30164&p=880396#post880396


----------



## trillionaire#1 (26 August 2015)

I remember taking a  keen interest on BKL when it plunged down to $20 .
There seemed to be so many new competitors like swisse that i got cold feet 
and before long it was $26. Ive mised the boat i thought at the time


----------



## skc (27 August 2015)

luutzu said:


> Got them from Commsec. Was last year's figures.
> 
> Didn't bother opening up their latest annual report so maybe shouldn't comment, but yea... it's not going to double every couple of years and take over the world as its share price growth suggests though.




Last year's figures are so... well, last year.

NPAT = $46.6 was about 70% higher than last year. It just needs to grow at this rate for a year or two and the market cap isn't that demanding.

Obviously the growth isn't a foregone conclusion... but the path there is certainly conceivable and realistic.



trillionaire#1 said:


> I remember taking a  keen interest on BKL when it plunged down to $20 .
> There seemed to be so many new competitors like swisse that i got cold feet
> and before long it was $26. Ive mised the boat i thought at the time




Same. I was put off by the relative low liquidity, and the confusion that I experience everytime I set foot in a Chemist Warehouse store.

Vitamins and supplement has to be the most confusing retail category. A retailer (or brand) who could crack that would do quite well I think.


----------



## luutzu (28 August 2015)

skc said:


> Last year's figures are so... well, last year.
> 
> NPAT = $46.6 was about 70% higher than last year. It just needs to grow at this rate for a year or two and the market cap isn't that demanding.
> 
> Obviously the growth isn't a foregone conclusion... but the path there is certainly conceivable and realistic.





From *Penguins of Madagascar:*
After rejecting nature, surviving a steep fall, slap a few sea lions to rescue a penguin egg... they ended up on a drifting iceberg. 

Captain penguin turns to Kawowski for their chances... 95% chance doom but 5% chance of adventures and glory like no penguins have gone before...

Drifting into the sunset, Private asks: Where are we going Captain?

Captain: The future boys... The glorious future.

-----

At $118 today... the future does look glorious.

But as with all dreams, any cloudy skies and it's abandon ship. 

----

On a more serious note... there is just too much that could go wrong here. Doesn't mean it will go wrong, but chances are it will.

One is if BKL were to do similarly well next year as it does last year... its price won't remain where it is but will probably double. Which is a good thing.

But how do you double your sales? How do you cater for the increased in volumes?

Can't crank the current plants 24/7 forever. You have to make investments. New sites, new PPE, new employees, new sales team and international offices and staff.

These costs money, will take a few points from the bottom line for sure.

Then if the Chinese economy tank... I don't know.. maybe they can convince the Chinese that Blackmores can be taken with alcohol.

But yea, if new competitors get into the game; if current competitors get their act together; if Chinese-owned and Chinese-based herbal and supplement companies with secret, lost, recipes and well funded labs opens up... You do realise that the Chinese/Asians have been playing with these supplements and herbal remedies for centuries right?


----------



## skc (28 August 2015)

luutzu said:


> At $118 today... the future does look glorious.
> 
> But as with all dreams, any cloudy skies and it's abandon ship.
> 
> ...




Perfectly logical arguments. In conclusion... never buy anything that involves the future.


----------



## luutzu (28 August 2015)

skc said:


> Perfectly logical arguments. In conclusion... never buy anything that involves the future.




I didn't say that.

Future is good. Just be careful if the price you are paying is indeed the future.

Sometime it could just be paying for the hope that that future is the future. 


Anywho... if BKL hit similar sales growth again next year, its price will probably hit $200. I haven't look at the company so I can't really gauge if that's likely or not... probably it is... will it still be likely in a few years time? Well it hasn't been able to in the past few decades... maybe things have changed for good?

But that's just me... seeing the carnage this past couple weeks... There's plenty I could spend my $1.5, $1.8 billion on than a supplement company that returns $47M in its best year, and if all goes great gives me average of $80 to $100M thereafter.


----------



## SuperGlue (28 August 2015)

skc said:


> Perfectly logical arguments. In conclusion... never buy anything that involves the future.




Haha.

Isn't the market all about the future.

Futures.....

We buy today for tomorrow.


----------



## McLovin (29 October 2015)

Yikes!

Started the year at $35. Went through $50 at the start of April. Went through $100 in late August. Just went through $200.

Where does this end?



> I'm forever blowing bubbles,
> Pretty bubbles in the air,
> They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
> Then like my dreams they fade and die.
> ...


----------



## Ves (29 October 2015)

McLovin said:


> Where does this end?



The gut feeling tells me in tears.   Well,  then again,  that's already happened...  I looked at this around $20 last year.


----------



## skc (29 October 2015)

luutzu said:


> Anywho... if BKL hit similar sales growth again next year, *its price will probably hit $200. *I haven't look at the company so I can't really gauge if that's likely or not... probably it is... will it still be likely in a few years time? Well it hasn't been able to in the past few decades... maybe things have changed for good?




You called it!



McLovin said:


> Where does this end?




Probably need a share split soon. The number's getting too big. I have had to widen my spreadsheet's price column to trade it 



Ves said:


> The gut feeling tells me in tears.   Well,  then again,  that's already happened...  I looked at this around $20 last year.




I looked at it at $40m but didn't really follow through with the research. Have a friend who's in the vitamin business in HK and it's a highly competitive category. But I guess the rising tide was very strong...


----------



## Ves (29 October 2015)

skc said:


> I looked at it at $40m but didn't really follow through with the research. Have a friend who's in the vitamin business in HK and it's a highly competitive category. But I guess the rising tide was very strong...



That was my thoughts from the outside looking in.

There's a common mistake in valuation and you often can pick up on it when looking across entire sectors, I think Aswath Damodaran calls it the "Macro Delusion"  in which people that are looking (and also those on the inside) at rapidly growing industries,   forget that over-confidence is contagious,  and cumulatively the whole industry over-estimates future returns.

Interesting to see if it applies here.  I notice Blackmores isn't the super-bullish company on China's prospects in this space.


----------



## luutzu (30 October 2015)

Ves said:


> That was my thoughts from the outside looking in.
> 
> There's a common mistake in valuation and you often can pick up on it when looking across entire sectors, I think Aswath Damodaran calls it the "Macro Delusion"  in which people that are looking (and also those on the inside) at rapidly growing industries,   forget that over-confidence is contagious,  and cumulatively the whole industry over-estimates future returns.
> 
> Interesting to see if it applies here.  I notice Blackmores isn't the super-bullish company on China's prospects in this space.




I'm surprised it didn't go to $300 given China just repeal its one-child policy.

Vitamin-infused milk and cheese... quite clever. But i think 90% of Chinese couldn't afford normal cheese or milk or safe food let alone the crazy stuff from Australia.


----------



## McLovin (1 December 2015)

I have no idea what one does with vitamin E cream but this stat is pretty amazing. 



> Blackmores floated on the ASX 30 years ago, and for most of that time the company sold 3000 tubs of vitamin E cream a month. In November 2015 the company sold 800,000 tubs of vitamin E cream.




Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/blackmo...-china-scramble-20151201-glcdee#ixzz3t2yiKc9U


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 December 2015)

McLovin said:


> I have no idea what one does with vitamin E cream but this stat is pretty amazing.
> 
> 
> 
> Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/blackmo...-china-scramble-20151201-glcdee#ixzz3t2yiKc9U




Scar tissue softening, skin health generally.


----------



## infotyte (11 December 2015)

Wow it is off again...nearly $200!


----------



## PinguPingu (12 April 2016)

TIMBEEEEEEEERRRRRR 


http://www.smh.com.au/business/chin...eign-goods-could-be-over-20160410-go2t39.html


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2016)

Traded it... from the open!   And out for a tiny profit.  The action is finished and will flatten off back to about 165, imo.


----------



## pixel (12 April 2016)

PinguPingu said:


> TIMBEEEEEEEERRRRRR
> 
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/chin...eign-goods-could-be-over-20160410-go2t39.html



an 11.9% value-added tax has been levied on foreign goods purchased via foreign websites, where apparently much of Murray Goulburn's products are sold to China.  What is a little more concerning is one paragraph I have found suggesting that under the changes, health foods will require regulatory approval which may cost up to $200k per item and can take up to four years.

That news item (thanks Sue  ) would have spooked many a retail trader, causing the initial panic selling.
Now, at lunch time, some semblance of sanity has returned and Blackmores are back at recent averages.





Unfortunately, I missed the dumping and a quick 15% profit.


----------



## skc (12 April 2016)

pixel said:


> Unfortunately, I missed the dumping and a quick 15% profit.




Same here. BKL is quite a difficult stock to trade. It's spread can suddenly go to $1 without warning. There's also no borrow anywhere so I couldn't profit from the morning dump either.

Now... Name another stock that can do $50 range in 2 days. My mind almost can't process so many digits in the share price!

I made some gains trading A2M and BAL... both suffered from delayed reaction yesterday. They were both easier to trade in terms of liquidity and spread. I also managed to trade the rebound in BAL and BWX. Out of both for now.

I don't really think the Chinese government has really carefully considered the finer details of the regulation changes. There will be a period of uncertainty before the dust settles.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Traded it... from the open!   And out for a tiny profit.  The action is finished and will flatten off back to about *165*, imo.


----------



## Value Hunter (1 June 2016)

At today's closing price of $148 the stock will actually look inexpensive if they can deliver a strong FY2017 profit.


----------



## SilverRanger (1 June 2016)

Value Hunter said:


> At today's closing price of $148 the stock will actually look inexpensive if they can deliver a strong FY2017 profit.




Not sure about value, but I bet lots of chartists (your nemesis?) will be shorting this stock if $144 is broken.


----------



## piggybank (4 June 2016)

SilverRanger said:


> Not sure about value, but I bet lots of chartists (your nemesis?) will be shorting this stock if $144 is broken.




Hi SilverRanger,

Why $144? Does anyone else have an opinion on a figure to start shorting this stock?

Cheers
PB


----------



## Triathlete (5 June 2016)

piggybank said:


> Hi SilverRanger,
> 
> Why $144? Does anyone else have an opinion on a figure to start shorting this stock?
> 
> ...




I would agree with  Silver Ranger that a *close below *$144 could see a move down towards $125-$120 and worst case $110.

This is just my opinion as well and not a recommendation please do your own analysis.


----------



## Triathlete (11 June 2016)

Triathlete said:


> I would agree with  Silver Ranger that a *close below *$144 could see a move down towards $125-$120 and worst case $110.
> 
> This is just my opinion as well and not a recommendation please do your own analysis.




There is the close below $144 are we now going to see a short term price collapse come Monday and coming weeks???? time will tell. Glad to have got out at $183.90 now.

Fundamentals look good though but will wait to see the stock find some support level before getting back in.

Stock doctor has a current valuation for BKL @ $189.94

Consensus price at $194.00.

Plenty of value just not sure were the fall will end....patience needed..!!


----------



## skc (24 August 2016)

Value Hunter said:


> At today's closing price of $148 the stock will actually look inexpensive if they can deliver a strong FY2017 profit.




BKL got smoked today.

I read the 4E report and saw numbers inline with expectations so I thought it'd do ok. But I was too busy trading when their non-price sensitive results announcement came out, which mentioned that Q1 FY17 is tracking lower than pcp. That surprised everybody and the bloodbath was on.

The market was looking for 15-20% growth in FY17 at least... so there'd be plenty of price target revisions tomorrow. 
BKL @ today's closing price of $129.5 has a market cap of $2.23B... so it's trading at PE 22x (on NPAT $100m), which doesn't sound that high in this market.

Some of the reasons given by management of the weak Q1 forecast is that wholesalers are running down inventories, and that some of the "suitcase export trades" have moved up the value chain and not shopping at retailers anymore.

My guess is that.... the wholesalers got caught up in the hype and over ordered in the last few quarters. These started to normalised in Q4 and accelerated in Q1 FY17. I will be surprised if demand for BKL's product suddenly fall off without major issues like a health scare, recall etc. An alternate explanation is that Chinese regulations are changing "DaiGuo" behaviors in ways that BKL isn't on top of. May be another brand is a good enough substitute (less face it, Blackmore, Swisse, Nature's Way - what's the difference) is now easier to distribute in China after the new regulations.

Hard to tell from just one quarter. But definitely worth monitoring.


----------



## Peter1668 (26 August 2016)

skc said:


> BKL got smoked today.
> 
> I read the 4E report and saw numbers inline with expectations so I thought it'd do ok. But I was too busy trading when their non-price sensitive results announcement came out, which mentioned that Q1 FY17 is tracking lower than pcp. That surprised everybody and the bloodbath was on.
> 
> ...




I think the market over re-acted to the bad news.


----------



## skc (26 August 2016)

Peter1668 said:


> I think the market over re-acted to the bad news.




May be... there was a lot of certain growth priced in so a Q1 contraction is definitely unexpected. Share price can over react in a situation like this.

However, the news did create a lot of uncertainty. If the problem is only affecting this quarter then current share price is a great opportunity. If the problem is just the tip of something more fundamental then the share price may not recover.

I think you might get a decent answer by interviewing a number of Dai Guo's and a few pharmacies.


----------



## Triathlete (26 August 2016)

Here is my current view on BKL with chart







 Strategic Comment

Last updated : 25 August 2016

BKL is a Star Growth Stock  and has delivered strong EPS growth given the strong performance in the last two years aided by BKL's growing East Asian exposure . Recent price weakness creates a potential opportunity for investors to buy a stock which currently represents value.

In its latest result announced on 24 August 2016, management noted a slowdown in 4Q16 growth and that 1Q17 revenues were expected to be weaker against the previous corresponding period due to volatility in the Australian wholesale market. However, management outlined the expectation for improvement in sales as FY17 progresses with a view of stabilization in sales from 2Q onwards. BKL management also retained the positive disposition of the promising medium to long term outlook driven by demand for high quality Australian products by the Chinese consumer.

Looking forward, we expect BKL to pass through the coming quarters of softer performance to conclude a year of broadly flat revenue but continued strength in margins to meet our criteria while favourable demographic trends support its medium to long term outlook. While risks around changing Chinese regulations and an inability to grow margins and stabilize sales should be an ongoing consideration to investors, at this point we are comfortable to retain coverage of BKL as a Star Growth Stock and we will continue to monitor any changes to the above mentioned factors closely in the coming months.

Lincoln valuation........$148.14

Consensus valuation...$135.00

14 day free trial....www.lincolnindicators.com.au

Cheers
Triathlete


----------



## Miner (26 August 2016)

skc said:


> May be... there was a lot of certain growth priced in so a Q1 contraction is definitely unexpected. Share price can over react in a situation like this.
> 
> However, the news did create a lot of uncertainty. If the problem is only affecting this quarter then current share price is a great opportunity. If the problem is just the tip of something more fundamental then the share price may not recover.
> 
> I think you might get a decent answer by interviewing *a number of Dai Guo's and a few pharmacies.*




SKC et al
I do not hold BKL and always envious of it sky rocketing prices and to see what happened now.
I am reading your golden statement to interview pharmacists etc.  I have not done so but have been watching the window dress up with BKL products in health shops and chemists for few months. The heavy discounts offered by some pharmacies also tell me something on over inventory. 
Do not forget there are other products like SWISS and the market is  over flooded with health products.
So purely from consumer perspective I have been staying away to buy Black more products - they are over priced. In addition when I read the labels on content, then I did not find value for money.
If there are other idiots like me who do not read the financial statements produced by BKL but just buy or reject to buy BKl Products - we know what happens in next quarter.


----------



## skc (27 August 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Strategic Comment
> 
> Last updated : 25 August 2016
> 
> BKL is a Star Growth Stock ...




Thanks Triathlete. I am impressed that Lincoln update it's contents so quickly.



Miner said:


> [/B]
> SKC et al
> I do not hold BKL and always envious of it sky rocketing prices and to see what happened now.
> I am reading your golden statement to interview pharmacists etc.  I have not done so but have been watching the window dress up with BKL products in health shops and chemists for few months. The heavy discounts offered by some pharmacies also tell me something on over inventory.
> ...




Yes I remember seeing the 50% off sale in my junk mail piles and thinking why they would want to do that... but I didn't think too hard about it.

Domino's regularly run 50% off sale as well so it may or may not be an indication of what's happening.

Another potential explanation for slow sales just popped into my head... it's very hard to see the direct benefits of taking health supplements. It's easy to see how someone suffering from certain health conditions would like to give these a try. And to give it a proper trial they must do that for at least 6-12 months. So with a surge in brand name and popularity starting some 18 months ago in China, may be the initial wave of trialists are rolling off, and the word of mouth becoming more mixed, as some consumers didn't see the desired health benefits.

Pure speculations... but it'd be interesting to know what proportion of BKL's customers are true, long term daily users vs transient trialists.


----------



## Triathlete (27 August 2016)

skc said:


> Thanks Triathlete. *I am impressed that Lincoln update it's contents so quickly.*




You know what they say SKC.....quick information in quick time = Money


----------



## Peter1668 (30 August 2016)

skc said:


> Thanks Triathlete. I am impressed that Lincoln update it's contents so quickly.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Actually, I was thinking BKL's product in this way (only initial wave of trialists) as well when the stock price keeps to be smashed recently. But you think about it, BKL's products have already in the market for so many years and have been carrying back to China by the chinese people here all the time, not only last 18 months. I think DaiGou starting popular around 18 month ago when people can easily set up a mini-shop on WeChat or other e-commerce sites. Since then selling volume of BKL's products expands quickly. BKL now is establishing their selling channels in China directly in a way similar at here. If that's successful, China's market and potential for BKL's products are huge. I have the following reasons to be positive about BKL's product's future in China: 
1. Chinese people spend a lot of money on health supplements, especially the aged people
2. Australian products are very well trusted in China
3. BKL's products are only available directly in China recently, might not all places yet
4. BKL's management team has a good track record to be successful in a competitive market
This a only my personal opinion for discussion, it might be not right.


----------



## Triathlete (2 September 2016)

Peter1668 said:


> Actually, I was thinking BKL's product in this way (only initial wave of trialists) as well when the stock price keeps to be smashed recently. But you think about it, BKL's products have already in the market for so many years and have been carrying back to China by the chinese people here all the time, not only last 18 months. I think DaiGou starting popular around 18 month ago when people can easily set up a mini-shop on WeChat or other e-commerce sites. Since then selling volume of BKL's products expands quickly. BKL now is establishing their selling channels in China directly in a way similar at here.
> 
> *If that's successful, China's market and potential for BKL's products are huge. I have the following reasons to be positive about BKL's product's future in China: *
> 
> ...




You could be right but at the moment all the news is negative so the share price will continue to fall as has been the case lately until people change their view and BKL can find some support.

The level around $111 - $110 is very important for their share price so will be interesting to watch over the coming months.


----------



## Klogg (8 September 2016)

skc said:


> So with a surge in brand name and popularity starting some 18 months ago in China, may be the initial wave of trialists are rolling off, and the word of mouth becoming more mixed, as some consumers didn't see the desired health benefits.




If that's the case, this may hurt:




Why are their provisions so low relative to inventory?
And do the raw materials ever go bad? (Doubtful, but worth asking)

Looking at Inventory vs Sales, they're clearly gearing up for additional sales that have not yet eventuated in Q1


EDIT: This may be the answer to the increase in raw materials:
_"We are also holding inventory of scarce raw materials to give us access in a growing market to mitigate against the vulnerability of having core product lines out of stock."_


----------



## McLovin (8 September 2016)

Klogg said:


> If that's the case, this may hurt:
> 
> View attachment 68027
> 
> ...




Why was their provision in the previous period so high? 6% spoilage seems high, especially given the shelf life of the finished product. I seem to recall them saying last year that they were having real problems sourcing some raw ingredients to keep up with demand and maintain the quality control.


----------



## Klogg (8 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> Why was their provision in the previous period so high? 6% spoilage seems high, especially given the shelf life of the finished product. I seem to recall them saying last year that they were having real problems sourcing some raw ingredients to keep up with demand and maintain the quality control.




The dangers of a quick glance at a report... I wrongly took 2015 as the 'expected'. Will need to go back and check what the provision (and actual, if they give it) rate of spoilage is. 

Thanks


----------



## Triathlete (8 October 2016)

Triathlete said:


> I would agree with  Silver Ranger that a *close below *$144 could see a move down towards $125-$120 and *worst case $110.*



Seems we are getting closer  to the above price ........anyone following BKL have a view.
Stock doctor has a value of $148 on the stock..


----------



## UMike (11 October 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Seems we are getting closer  to the above price ........anyone following BKL have a view.
> Stock doctor has a value of $148 on the stock..



Morningstar has a similar value but with a very high "Fair value" uncertainty rating.

I'm very hesitant to touch it.


----------



## Triathlete (11 October 2016)

UMike said:


> Morningstar has a similar value but with a very high "Fair value" uncertainty rating.
> 
> *I'm very hesitant to touch it*.




The *"uncertainty rating"* is a concern , sounds like they are having troubles analysing or believing what is in their accounts/contracts earning potential etc and need a few things to line up to confirm the current valuations.....

Is there any value investors looking at this stock at the moment????? 

I would think this would be on their watch list at the moment???

Looking at the chart the $110 level is one of two of the most important levels which is 50% of All time High and will be worth watching moving forward especially now that you have mentioned this *uncertainty rating from Morningstar*.

I would like to think that the stock would find support here and consolidate and wait for further signs of a turnaround before moving higher. Time will tell though.


----------



## dpgrubesic (18 October 2016)

I'm watching this one like a hawk it is a great company and it certainly has a lot to grow. 

If anything it has got to be a strong longer term stock?


----------



## robusta (20 October 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> I'm watching this one like a hawk it is a great company and it certainly has a lot to grow.
> 
> If anything it has got to be a strong longer term stock?




Well I dived in this week, an average buy price of around $112.00, hoping for a minimum 20% compound growth over the next 3 years... Should be able to pay a nice dividend as a bonus.


----------



## skc (20 October 2016)

robusta said:


> Well I dived in this week, an average buy price of around $112.00, hoping for a minimum 20% compound growth over the next 3 years... Should be able to pay a nice dividend as a bonus.




BKL AGM next week. A trading update will tell us whether the weak Q1 sales was a blip or start of a possible trend. Expect it to hold recent range until then.


----------



## Triathlete (23 October 2016)

skc said:


> BKL AGM next week. *A trading update will tell us whether the weak Q1 sales was a blip or start of a possible trend.* Expect it to hold recent range until then.




Looking forward to this.....*If we see a bad result *and price closes below $110 then we could see a fall all the way back to $68......interesting times ahead..!!


----------



## dpgrubesic (23 October 2016)

Haven't they already said they are having issues with supply? 

SO i dont know if you can expect a great result? 

correct me if im wrong?


----------



## Triathlete (23 October 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> Haven't they already said they are having issues with supply?
> 
> SO i dont know if you can expect a great result?
> 
> correct me if im wrong?





Are you holding this stock at the moment..????


----------



## MrChow (24 October 2016)

Actual tax changes affecting BKL in China have been delayed until May 2017.

So still going to be 12 months at least before we get some figures that could resemble the future business environment.


----------



## dpgrubesic (24 October 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Are you holding this stock at the moment..????




way to much short term risk for me


----------



## Triathlete (25 October 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> way to much short term risk for me




Yes I agree...let us see what comes out in the next report....But purely from a technical view should we close below $110 which is one of the most important levels technically (50% of the All time high) then I would say BKL will be in for rough time with the share price going a lot lower.

If I was holding at the moment..... maybe hedging the position till after the announcement might be the way to go and then close out one once we have some idea of what is happening with the company going forward...


----------



## Chris2207 (10 November 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Looking forward to this.....*If we see a bad result *and price closes below $110 then we could see a fall all the way back to $68......interesting times ahead..!!




Brilliant quote.

Question today however is why is volume so low? Anyone done any technicals work on this recently? 120 feels like a resistance level of some significance.


----------



## peter2 (10 November 2016)

*BKL* is currently in a corrective pullback after a huge weekly/monthly impulsive move up (ending at $221). 
Currently price is in the 50 - 61.8% pullback, "ambush" buy zone if that interests you. 

The daily chart shows the $120 resistance level which is only minor, but is the second hurdle to cross. The first hurdle is evidence of demand that stops or pauses the selling supply. That happened 27 Oct 16 (daily pin bar on high volume). 

Longer term "value" investors may have started their buying at $100. I don't know.  If I was comfortable with the company a close above $120 would be an appropriate time for an initial or partial parcel. 

I'm a trader so I'll need to see a test of the $100 low.  On the chart this would be a Wyckoff "spring" or a higher low on the daily/weekly chart. 

You've correctly mentioned the biggest problem with trading BKL. The low market depth. Like most stocks on the ASX the MD has been thin for ages.


----------



## Miner (11 November 2016)

On fundamental side I found the products of Black more even after allowing 40% discount are more expensive than similar products made by Swiss and few others. There are some cheaper brands and I am not comparing with them.
My concern is if Blackmore has to discount the price so heavily and still not competitive what value proposition it offers for a customer to buy them ? Vitamin and Health care products even quality wise looks good often driven by price. Classic example see fish oil. All look cheap but once you read the label will know the difference. I have unfortunately read the labels, content percentage of many of the products purely from academic purpose spending hours on Chemists and Druggist (wife will be very pissed off with my indulgence on such research time) and shop keeper kept on asking, can I help you. 
I could not establish why I should pay more to Black More products. It also gives me a perception if the products are so high price at first place, then are the company reaping off ? Since they do not make prescription drugs, - so their honeymoon period to is over. May be after slump in product value, new CEO will come and I will wait also to get the price below $80 to justify my investment. Do not know who spent such a high amount for non life saving vitamin products. These are not blue pills that customer will be desperate to buy. 
DNH


----------



## pixel (13 June 2017)

All the supplements that get flogged by "Alternative" bloggers or pharma warehouses have a very limited usefulness for "normal" people. It's either an expensive way to produce rich urine, or possibly dangerous if consumers increase the dosage in the mistaken belief that more is better.
The discussion is starting to make it into mainstream media, which will reduce the sale volumes. Maybe your $80 level isn't all that far away.


----------



## Miner (13 June 2017)

Hey Pixel
Thanks for keeping track on BKL and referring me to Nov 2016. Yes, then wishful but now looks a reality th at BKL will be reaching 80 marks soon. In fact the candlestick chart you produced suggest the same. I think that time new US President was not in the picture. Since then he has changed the medicine policy, removal of Obamacare and overhaul of FDA. Of course, BKL will not directly be seen to be affecting, but as a natural course of sustainability, those pharma drug companies will then focus on health care products like BKL and increased competition.
By the way, stockinvest value has put its current value being
*Current Value (Latest Results)  * A$75.56 (-13.1% less than last quoted value) so if that is the trend, BKL could go down south beyond $80.

I looked back on analyst briefing and shareholder update documentation.
Under shareholder update (page 5 to refer and only Pages 1 to 10  attached due to size) the opportunities are really wishful statements. No data to support nor any strength to demonstrate how they are opportunities for BKL competitively or for all health products.
Let us watch and surely you are having Hawkeye.


----------



## kid hustlr (2 June 2018)

This stock has come to life in recent weeks and provided a great opportunity for those with their finger on the pulse.

A classic head and shoulders reversal and longer term support.

I was a day late and refused to chase it above 135 - to my own peril in this case.

Seems to be a pretty good trading stock which runs hard when it wants to.

Some noise above from here so no firm view for me now.

@peter2 this one's right up your ally!

A week too late!


----------



## leyy (28 August 2018)

A very good result today for the full year.

Revenue was a record for the group in its 86 year history. Outlook is quite positive for FY19 with a pipeline of new products to be launched and the acquisition of CSIRO endorsed weight management program Impromy.

The major markets of growth are very healthy with China at 22%, Other Asia (Excl. China) 20% and Bioceuticals branded products a whopping 20% growth which is the leading practitioners brand.

I have a few pharma friends and family and they swear by a few of the bioceuticals product in particular "ArmaForce" it is the gift of the gods. It is recommended to take Armaforce as soon as you start to feel sick, it pretty much prevents you getting sick or on the unlikely event you do get ill it reduces how long you get sick for. Great for families with young kids from childcare or people or who get sick.

Closed at $162.00 up 11.5%, next short term price target is $175 then should try and break its ATH of $220 in January 2016.

Highlights below:


----------



## bigdog (19 February 2019)

SP smashed today after ANN

The company’s CEO, Richard Henfrey, blamed the lack of profit growth on its investment in advertising and promotion and softening growth in China.
















ASX ann per link




https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190219/pdf/442ql1z6zg56xs.pdf





https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190219/pdf/442qm3h6frd12q.pdf


----------



## Miner (19 February 2019)

Thanks @bigdog for being prompt to publish BKL.
The China factor is going to be worry even if the fall is now recovering.
I am posting an excerpt from the Motley (free published one is often juicy  but the paid one is no different and they are great fan of BKL). But today the tone is different. DNH


----------



## bigdog (27 February 2019)

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...igns-after-company-talks-20190226-p510f5.html

*Board wants change': Blackmores CEO resigns after company talks*

*By Darren Gray*
February 27, 2019

Blackmores' biggest shareholder and former chairman Marcus Blackmore says chief executive Richard Henfrey resigned just 18 months into his role after discussions with the board over the need for a "transformational change".

Mr Blackmore, who remains an executive director, said the board believed that the business needed "to strengthen innovation and we need more new products. And we need to make decisions quicker".

"The board want change, they've sat down with Richard [Henfrey] and said what they thought [about] where we should be going with the business, and gave Richard the option of either staying with the business or resigning," he said.

Mr Henfrey's resignation, announced on Tuesday, completes an unhealthy period for the health supplements company that saw its stock price fall 25 per cent in a day and hundreds of millions of dollars wiped off its market capitalisation.

But Mr Blackmore, speaking from Indonesia, said Mr Henfrey's resignation was not due to the falling share price, nor the company's December half year results which disappointed the market and prompted the stock price fall.

Mr Blackmore said the firm's board had reached the view that the company needed to make "transformational change".

"They've come up with, I guess, a middle of the road situation where Richard has formally resigned to the board, but he's agreed to stay on for some time until we find a new chief executive who can lead this level of change in the business," he said.

Mr Blackmore said the company was much bigger than it was five years ago, and admitted that in some areas it had not "adjusted quickly enough to the growth options".

"Richard's resignation, has been something that's been going on for some time. It is in no way, no way at all related to the drop in our share price last week...The fact remains that all our business units are going well," he said.

Mr Blackmore also told _The Age_ and _The Sydney Morning Herald_ that Mr Henfrey's decision to resign was "the right decision for the shareholders and for the board. So I'm pleased he's made that sort of decision".

Mr Henfrey has been with Blackmores since 2009 and performed a number of executive roles before he was appointed CEO in August 2017, a successor to the high profile Christine Holgate.

Mr Henfrey's resignation announcement comes just a week after Blackmores reported a half year result that disappointed investors and sent its stock price down a hefty 25 per cent on the day. Blackmores told the market that sales in China had dropped about 11 per cent and warned that its second half profit would fall below its first half result.

Morgans analyst Belinda Moore said Blackmores had reported a poor half year result, and appeared to be under-performing compared to its peers.






"We don't know specifically what's happened here, but it's not a great shock given recent weak results," she said of Mr Henfrey's resignation.

Blackmore shares closed down 3.9 per cent ($3.73) at $91.47 on Tuesday, a far cry from its January 2016 levels of around $220 off the back of surging growth in its China sales.

The day before Blackmores released its December half results its shares closed at $123.56. The plunge in the company's stock price since the results were released has wiped about $555 million off its market capitalisation in just six trading days.

In a note to clients Ms Moore said that while Blackmores' revenue growth for the half of 11 per cent was reasonable, the "China-led second quarter 2019 slowdown underwhelmed".

"While management did attribute some of its slowdown to softer Chinese consumer sentiment, we believe Blackmores' underperformance is more company specific and reflects the impact of increased competition. We note competitors are reporting strong growth and the cross-border e-commerce vitamin category is still posting growth (implying Blackmores is losing share)," she said.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 April 2019)

A substantial fall in the share price today following an announcement of reduced profit. 

Price hit a low of $82.79 thus far versus yesterday's close of $89.90, but it's now back up to $87.02


----------



## bigdog (12 February 2020)

ASX announcement today and share price is currently down 15.75%
12/02/2020 8:29:35 AM   * Blackmores Trading Update *(uploaded)

Blackmores expects to report an underlying NPAT of $18 million in the first half. This will be a 47% decline on the prior corresponding period and falls short of its $21 million guidance.  Management forecasting a full year NPAT of just $17 million to $21 million.











347


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 May 2020)

> Immunity products...they are flying over the last three or four months”



_Alistair Symington, CEO, Blackmores Ltd_

- I'd use "immunity" in inverted commas; nice to see the company has pulled out of its lurches downwards.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 January 2022)

_gee, where are we?  More bouncing along the bottom for Blackmores, in a $60 to $80 range, definitely sub $100, since early 2019, and for most of 2020 and 2021. And now $83_.


Credit Suisse has an “outperform” rating on Blackmores, and it also raises the prospect of the company potentially being a takeover target.


> _Swiss-based conglomerate Nestlé is a potential suitor. Nestlé has been busy on the acquisition trail when it comes to vitamins, acquiring global group The Bountiful Co last year for $US5.75 billion ($8 billion). The Bountiful Co produces brands including Nature’s Bounty, Solgar, Osteo Bi-Flex and Sundown._
> 
> _Credit Suisse number-crunching found that the multiple paid by Nestlé in that deal would translate to $105 per share for Blackmores._




The move for the brand has been into pet vitamins and supplements, expanding into India, and pursuing modern career women in China as customers, via a shift to more premium branding. But China has not been the slam-dunk and what worked before may not work again for BKL. Daigou trade is dead, foot traffic is down and local sales are impacted by Covid restrictions.  And a feuding board and major shareholder hasn't helped.


----------



## divs4ever (24 January 2022)

would prefer it much closer to $60 than $80  , if i was adding more ( and that is not out of the question )

 might be time i started backing  Marcus again instead of watching from the sidelines 

 this lot are turning this into Myers version 2 

 India looks OK but there are plenty of middle-class in South-East Asia as well 

 maybe they should investigate Asia for new products to sell , and win more local and ex-pat buyers


----------



## Miner (24 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> would prefer it much closer to $60 than $80  , if i was adding more ( and that is not out of the question )
> 
> might be time i started backing  Marcus again instead of watching from the sidelines
> 
> ...



Thinking 1 pc of Indian population as  customers will outweigh the total aus customers. 
But the sub continent has a large no of good pharma companies who are exporting world wide including Australia.
With Aus made products, to make money competing with made in India products will be largely dictated high pitch marketing keeping BKL products on the high price category.
The upper class there affluent to pay the premiums for foreign products .
Don't hold BKL


----------



## divs4ever (24 January 2022)

rivals have come and gone against Blackmores  sure  part of it was the family company ethic  , and part loyal supportive staff 

you don't need  a huge increase from Asia to  double sales , all they need to do is keep up the quality in manufacture  , a few more select products  , sometimes slow expansion in difficult times is the path to take 

 i also note BKL is listed as having eight directors  , must be an interesting time justifying all them  to the employees  ( many of whom are share-holders as well )


----------



## divs4ever (18 August 2022)

ASX Announcement
FY22 Results
Blackmores Group delivers 19% increase in Underlying EBIT to $56.6 million with margin
expansion, and achieves growth in all three brands and all markets
FY22 HIGHLIGHTS
• Group Revenue: $649.5m up 12.8% on prior year (12.9% at constant FX)
• Underlying Gross profit: $346.6m up 15.1% on prior year with Underlying gross margin expansion
(up 1.1ppts to 53.4%)
• Group Underlying EBIT: $56.6m up 19.0% on prior year with underlying EBIT margin up 0.5ppts to
8.7% (statutory EBIT $56.0m up 22.2%)
• Group Underlying NPAT: $31.1m up 22.6% on prior year (statutory continuing NPAT $30.6m up
27.8%)
• Statutory NPAT: $30.6m up 7.0% on prior year
• Australia segment revenue up 2.7%, underlying EBIT up 7.0% on prior year; Blackmores and
BioCeuticals combined retail sales contribute to the Group having the largest incremental sales
growth1 in the VDS category
• International segment revenue up 31.7% (31.2% at constant FX) and underlying EBIT up 43.9% on
prior year
• China segment revenue up 10.6% and underlying EBIT up 11.2% to $16.0m
• Group continues to execute on strategy including cost-out and efficiency savings, targeted
investment in growth opportunities across key markets and margin uplift initiatives, with clear FY24
objectives
• Net cash: $82.2m
• Final dividend of 32 cents per share (cps) (fully franked) – FY dividend 95 cents fully franked up
33.8%
RESULTS OVERVIEW
Blackmores Limited (ASX: BKL) today announced its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2022
(FY22).
Chief Executive Officer, Alastair Symington said: “We are pleased to deliver a strong financial result during
a period which continued to be impacted by the ongoing effects of COVID-19 and significant disruption to
supply chains and increased input costs.
“The resilience of our business model, together with the strength of our brands and distribution channels,
have enabled the Group to respond to these challenges to deliver top line growth along with further margin
expansion.
1 Combined Blackmores and BioCeuticals portfolio growth, RSV FYTD 2/7/22 in VDS. Nielsen AU Pharmacy + Grocery
For the year ended 30 June 2022
Reported 18 August 2022
Blackmores Limited 2
“We recorded growth across all three brands (Blackmores, BioCeuticals and PAW) and all markets for the
first time in the last 4 years.
“Our ongoing focus on product innovation and continued investment in our brands, with selling and
marketing spend up 4.6%, has delivered a strong uplift in revenue growth of 12.8%.
“Meanwhile, our continued focus on operational discipline, including price/mix optimisation has delivered
a strong uplift in gross margin which increased by 1.1 ppts.
“This has enabled Blackmores to deliver a 22.6% increase in underlying net profit together with a 33.8%
lift in the full year dividend to shareholders to 95 cents per share, fully franked.
“Importantly, this strong set of financial results has also been delivered alongside the implementation of
improvements in our workplace health and safety and further commitments delivered as part of our ongoing
sustainability agenda, including signing up to our first sustainability-linked loan.
“Blackmores has remained disciplined and focused on delivering our strategic objectives which has
strengthened our competitive position to meet the current economic challenges and capitalise on the
significant growth opportunity in our core markets and set us up for future growth across our business.
“In FY22, we continued to extend the reach of our brands achieving double-digit revenue and profit growth
in our China and International segments.
“We simplified our operations and strengthened our supply chain which has enabled the Group to address
the current disruption and implement the necessary measures to enhance our manufacturing productivity
to support our growth agenda.
“While the current macro-environment increases near-term volatility, Blackmores’ medium-term trajectory
remains strong as we continue to build a platform for sustainable value creation,” he said.
GROUP FINANCIAL RESULTS
Revenue increased by 12.8% to $649.5 million (up 12.9% on constant currency basis) driven
predominantly by strong performances in International and China, Australia/NZ is back in growth.
Despite the challenges of higher input costs, particularly in the second half of the year, underlying gross
margin improved from 52.3% to 53.4% as Blackmores continued its strong focus on optimising price,
product mix, trade spend, and Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) efficiency programs. In year savings of $10
million delivered from our continuous improvement program, Leading Value Proposition (LVP), enabled
delivery of uplift in gross margin.
The Company remains on track to achieve our target of $55m annualised gross cost savings by the end
of FY23.
Underlying Group EBIT lifted by 19.0% with an improvement in EBIT margin from 8.3% to 8.7%, which
included increased selling and marketing expenditure of 4.6% for the year as the Company increased
investments in its 3 power brands.
Underlying Net Profit After Tax increased by 22.6% to $31.1 million with Blackmores reporting a statutory
continuing Net Profit After Tax of $30.6 million, up 27.8% from the prior year.
Underlying Earnings Per Share increased by 22.0% to 160.2 cents.
For the year ended 30 June 2022
Reported 18 August 2022
Blackmores Limited 3
BUSINESS UNIT RESULTS:
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND (ANZ)
Strong execution in a disrupted market enables 7.0% EBIT growth
Australia and New Zealand revenue increased by 2.7% to $288.2 million. All Australian brands
contributed to revenue growth with the BioCeuticals and PAW brands recording strong growth compared
to the prior year. The Blackmores, BioCeuticals and PAW brands continue to resonate strongly in the
market, retaining the Company’s number one2 position in Australia in our key segments.
Sales in the first half were impacted by COVID-19 flow on effects, including border closures, a reduction
in retail foot traffic from lockdowns and lower sales from international students and visitors. Despite
some impact of the floods in Queensland and New South Wales, sales recovered in the second half as
consumers gained more confidence to enter retail post lockdown, cold and flu cases increased and
Blackmores increased investments in advertising and promotional campaigns to pre-pandemic levels.
Underlying EBIT increased 7.0% to $43.1 million through gross margin improvement, partially offset by
increased investment in advertising and promotion.
INTERNATIONAL
Continued momentum across key markets delivers 43.9% EBIT growth
Blackmores’ International business continued its strong momentum from the first half to deliver revenue
uplift of 31.8% (31.2% at constant currency) for FY22.
Strong revenue growth was achieved across the key markets of Indonesia, (+36.7%) and Thailand
(+33.3%). All International markets delivered growth in the year, supported by increased brand
awareness, new product launches, distribution expansion and sustained on-shelf availability. Top line
growth was also driven by continued investment in Product Advisors (now totalling 700) together with
targeted price/pack initiatives to deliver net sales per unit uplift.
The Blackmores’ brand continues to gain market share in key international markets. In Thailand, we
continued to be the leading brand in the VDS market and in Indonesia we moved into joint 3rd brand
leader. Market share in other markets was steady.
Market innovation included the launch of 61 products across the region including new products launched
in India. The Company continues to make solid progress with its Halal strategy across Indonesia with
two thirds of our product range now having the MUI Halal logo.
Underlying EBIT grew by 43.9% to $29.8 million with Underlying EBIT margin up 1.2 ppts to 13.8%,
underpinned by cost management, disciplined pricing and a shift to higher margin channels in all major
markets.
2 Nielsen AU Pharmacy + Grocery FYTD 2/7/22 Domestic (Retail & Practitioner)
For the year ended 30 June 2022
Reported 18 August 2022
Blackmores Limited 4
CHINA
Strong execution in challenging lockdown conditions delivers 11.2% EBIT growth
Despite on-going lockdowns in key cities in China, revenue in the China segment increased by 10.6% to
$145.6 million (10.6% in constant currency).
This result was driven by ongoing growth in the Direct Cross Border E-Commerce (CBEC) channel with
Gross merchandise value (GMV) sales from the 618 festival up amidst challenging logistics during
Shanghai lockdowns.
This strong performance reflects ongoing investment in innovation and in local capabilities to deepen
CBEC and digital health performance, with key products driving growth in the premium Fish Oil and Eye
health segments.
Blackmores remained in the top 43 VDS brands across all CBEC platforms in China in the year.
Underlying EBIT increased by 11.2% to $16.0 million with Underlying EBIT margin up 0.1 ppts to 11.0%.
Gross margin was broadly flat with price initiatives and favourable mix offsetting higher input costs
challenges.
SUPPLY CHAIN OPERATIONS
Improvements in out of stocks through 2H despite ongoing global supply chain issues
Braeside delivered a solid performance across all metrics and maintained full production without
interruption to ensure supply to customers. In FY22, Braeside manufactured 2.3 billion doses of soft gel
capsules and solid dose tablets representing ~60% of Blackmores' total volume.
Gross margin improvement was driven by COGS efficiencies and mix improvements while Braeside
conversion costs continue to improve compared to the prior year.
Investments in cloud-based demand and supply planning tools were undertaken in Q4.
BALANCE SHEET AND CASH FLOW
Strong financial position maintained to support growth initiatives
Blackmores remains in a strong financial position with a net cash balance of $82.2 million at 30 June
2022.
The reduction in operating cash flow before interest and tax of 31.5% to $55.0 million reflects the
Group’s planned response to ongoing supply chain disruption to build product inventory in the short term
to improve out-of-stocks to meet customer demand while also supporting growth in international markets.
Average inventory age remains in line with prior periods.
Capital expenditure of $10.7 million was 42.0% lower than the prior year, reflecting lower spend but also
recognising that Technology and Digital investment is now mostly captured as an operational expense
under accounting standards.
3 Smart Path China VDS Ecommerce 2/8/22
For the year ended 30 June 2022
Reported 18 August 2022
Blackmores Limited 5
WORK HEALTH AND SAFETY (WHS)
We gained a deeper understanding of our WHS system through audits and inspections across our sites,
to inform a new WHS system in the coming year. Our reporting culture has been supported by targeted
training on incident reporting, investigation and risk assessment. As a result, we have significantly
decreased the severity of Lost Time Injuries (LTIs) across Blackmores’ sites. In Australia, Warriewood
Operations achieved a full year of zero LTI claims.
SUSTAINABILITY
Blackmores has maintained a strong focus on sustainable business practices consistent with the
Company’s “Healthy planet, Healthy people” sustainability program.
During the year, Blackmores entered into to its first sustainability-linked loan for 50% of its banking
facilities, deepening the Company’s commitment to achieving its emissions reduction targets.
Blackmores remains committed to reach net zero emissions by 2030. In FY22, Blackmores reduced
total emissions by a further 4.1% while increasing its use of renewable energy. More details about our
progress will be published in the Blackmores Group Sustainability Report to be released in September
2022.
DIVIDEND
Continued focus on shareholder returns – FY dividend up 33.8%
The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of 32 cents per share bringing the full year dividend to
95 cents per share fully franked. This represents a dividend payout ratio of 60% of statutory net profit.
The record date for the final dividend is 1 September 2022 with scheduled payment on 19 September
2022.
The Dividend Reinvestment Plan (“DRP”) will operate for the final dividend with a discount of 2.5%.
The Blackmores Board maintains its disciplined approach to capital management with a strong financial
position to take advantage of growth opportunities as they arise to ensure capital is deployed in a
manner to deliver long-term shareholder value.
OUTLOOK
Blackmores remains focused on executing its strategic and commercial plan, supporting continued
earnings momentum.
In International the Company will continue to expand its distribution footprint and invest in Blackmores’
brand awareness.
In ANZ Blackmores will increase investment in advertising and channel differentiation behind its 3 brand
strategy while delivering differentiated channel offers.
In China the Company continues to navigate consumer and trade headwinds, however there are early
signs of supply chains re-shaping with consumer demand improving as lockdowns are lifted and as eCommerce platforms stabilise.
For the year ended 30 June 2022
Reported 18 August 2022
Blackmores Limited 6
In FY23 Blackmores will continue its investment in improved efficiency processes and growth initiatives,
including enhancements to the Company’s technology and digital capabilities. The Company remains
focused on delivering its $55 million gross annualised cost savings target in FY23 while assessing
further cost out opportunities beyond FY23.
Blackmores acknowledges several macro-economic variables remain outside the Company’s control
which could impact its business. However, we remain confident in the ongoing resilience of the
business, growth trajectory and advantage that our geographic diversity brings as economic uncertainty
prevails.
While inflationary pressure persists across all the Company’s end-markets, potentially impacting
consumer spending, Blackmores remains confident in its portfolio and price/mix strategy in response to
changes in market forces.
ENDS

===================================================================================================

DYOR

i hold BKL

i should be laughing all the way to the bank here but swapped the original holding into WES in 2015 and bought back in 2017

so i am doing OK ( on BKL ) but swapping into WES at that time WAS the right choice


----------

