# TD1 - TALI Digital



## Deadcat (24 January 2007)

Avexa.com.au

Bought into this stock at 30c a couple of months ago.   I am pretty happy with the last couple of days and recent announcement.  What do others think about this stock?


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## j4mesa (24 January 2007)

*Re: AVX - Biotech*

They are prospective...........only if their research on the HIV succeed.

Judging from the market sentiment from last 2 days and the management, I like this company


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## Deadcat (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Biotech*

Bell Potter presentation released today.  Stock up over 60c today.  Trial results in another 2 months hopefully.


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## j4mesa (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Biotech*

Results out :  The sooner the better...
as long as it is good not like BLT

hey deadcat,it seems like it is only 2 of us here talking bout AVX......


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## Deadcat (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Biotech*

I bought into this one in December for 29c so I am very happy with the current share price.  Hopefully trials will be a success.  I am holding and seeing where it goes.  I think Biotechs will become more popular as people start moving out of the mining stocks.


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## j4mesa (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I am in @ 35.5 and has been running since then.....
how do you come to pickup this stock ?


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## noobs (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I was given the AVX tip from a broking mate just before the Share Purchase Plan @ .20c late last year but I stuffed up the settlement date and just missed out on it. The shares were about .27c at the time so it was a no brainer and has gone north ever since. I was spewing at the time but kept holding my parcel and now look at it.


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## Deadcat (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Broker advice late last year then did a bit of research.  Had money tied into some stocks that just weren't going anywhere so repositioned and happy with the decision.


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## j4mesa (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I did picked it up when it has small breakouts @ 35.5 
Thank God.............it is still running.....


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## LifeisShort (1 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I don't think it has finished its run just yet. I read yesterday in FR I think that a valuation of 90c was attributed to it by one of the big broking houses. I don't hold the stock but i agree with the comments thus far that biotech sector is set for a big year as a lot of the companies are getting ther trial results out


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## PhoenixXx (2 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Biotech*



			
				j4mesa said:
			
		

> They are prospective...........only if their research on the HIV succeed.
> 
> Judging from the market sentiment from last 2 days and the management, I like this company




Class 9 advisor


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## Go Nuke (26 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well Ive only just bought in...hopefully not too late.
Im happy with what i am seeing and reading about them...so going to take a punt and hope it pays off.

I also agree that bio stocks will be the next to take off after resources slow.
Its just a matter of finding a niche market.
I also hold shares in CUV
Looked at buying shares in ACR...but ran outa money:>
Im also not too convinced that my money would be a good place with them...so I placed it in U stocks instead


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## Halba (26 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yep its a bit of a gamble this one. It's a bet on the phase 2 results isn't it?


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## Deadcat (27 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Took my money and ran today.  Closed 59c.  Sitting on sidelines watching for results.  Good luck to all those still in, hope it goes on to Phase III, if so I will be back in.


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## Halba (27 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Looks like collapsing? Any news?


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## Deadcat (27 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

No news that I know of.  Speculating that news has leaked about results not being so favourable.  Was a good stock to trade.


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## megla (27 February 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Me too, watched it climb from my entry at 31 and exited at 65... was surprised it got that high really!


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## Gurgler (12 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Seems to have bounced back from the two recent corrections, and holding up well.

Anyone have any idea when the Phase 2 results are due?

Deadcat - you still on the sidelines or holding again?

(disclosure - holding)


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## Deadcat (12 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Back in at 51c the other week.  Hopefully results this week or early next?  SP hovering around 65 - 66c.


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## Gurgler (12 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Thanks - FN Arena lists it's target price at 0.75 btw.


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## Deadcat (15 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Trading halt announced, results for phase II due on Monday 19th.


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## Halba (16 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Trials positive - in AFR. Any comments?


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## Deadcat (16 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Closed at 68c on Wednesday before trading halt.  Market depth suggests offers now of over $1 for this stock.  Will see how it goes after initial excitement.


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## Halba (16 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Not only is it positive but the trials have shown some very good results according to the AFR. This should be re rated to the $1 mark on monday based on these results. Those who panicked and sold will be regretting.


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## Deadcat (16 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes, I am going to hold for quite a while I think.  Apparently nearly all drugs that make it through to Phase III hit the market.  If they are raising capital to complete the Phase III trials then maybe takeover not on cards.


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## Halba (16 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Capital raising will be small $25m, which is only 25 million shares @ $1. 

If its a Share purchase plan I will be participating. Not many chances to get into working drugs these days.


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## noobs (16 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

A buy order sitting in the front of the queue for 209,500 units @ $1.15. That is big money even at current SP. Monday will be very interesting! I don't think it has anything to do with capital raising. Phase IIB results and I can't wait. Good Luck All


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## Halba (16 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hi noobs and all

Phase 2b pretty much known.

Got this from another forum:



> Australia could be on the verge of commercialising a multibillion-dollar HIV/AIDS drug after biotechnology company Avexa called a trading halt yesterday in preparation for the release of key trial results. Biotech analysts and industry insiders said Avexa's Phase IIb trial of its apricitabine (ATC) drug has produced a better than hoped for result, with ill patients showing a significant drop in their viral loads. To date, all HIV/AIDS drugs that passed Phase IIb have gone on to commercialisation. Avexa will also trigger a capital raising of about $25 million to help fund the next stage of ATC as it looks to forge a distribution and partnership deal with a major US pharmaceutical company. Avexa is expected to announce on Monday that the 50 patients enrolled in its drugs trial reported a 0.8 logarithmic decline in viral loads against a targeted 0.6 logarithmic improvement. It is particularly excited by the patient reaction because the powerful United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has set the benchmark at 0.5 logarithmic for a new HIV/AIDS drug to be approved. The drug also showed little toxicity, which is a major concern when doctors require stronger drugs to treat patients who have developed resistance to standard HIV/AIDS drugs. The FDA is the "gold standard" for new drugs and once accepted by that health department it is easy to gain access to other markets including Australia and Europe. The breakthrough is the success the Australian biotech industry has been waiting for after the failure of a number of high-profile and promising drug trials including Metabolic Pharmaceutical's obesity drug last month. Avexa, which is valued at $160 million, could be sitting on a pharmaceutical goldmine. In the US alone, HIV drugs sales hit $US5.6 billion in 2003 with Avexa's technology targeting the increasing number of people resistant to the first line of treatments. Shares in Avexa have rallied since December as early reports from the drug's trial were that patients were reacting well to ATC. The stock has risen by nearly 150 per cent since January and was at 68 ¢ before the trading halt was called yesterday. Avexa gained worldwide rights to ATC following a cash and equity deal with its partner Shire Pharmaceutical. Wilson HTM biotech analyst Graeme Wald said if the Phase IIb trials were successful it would significantly boost Avexa's value and could spark a bidding war by overseas pharmaceutical companies. "This would be quite an important addition to the choice of drugs for physicians treating HIV," Dr Wald said. He said Avexa's drug would be viewed as especially valuable because it was able to combat mutations in HIV/AIDS. Avexa was spun out of biotech company Amrad in 2004 and started life with a market cap of only $24 million. Its major shareholders include biotech investment and venture capital company Circadian Technologies, Mirrabooka Investments and the Liberman family's Jagen Pty Ltd fund.


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## Halba (19 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yep results confirmed this morning. Not opening till wednesday due to capital raising.

Results were excellent and confirmed the article posted above.


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## noobs (19 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

re: Capital raising - It would be great to see another SPP to current shareholders and not too institutional investors. The Phase 11B results are nothing short of amazing and I predict some massive interest in this one in the next month or so.


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## Halba (19 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes I wouldn't mind either way. Maybe a rights issue is the most equitable?

Usually avexa gives SPP, they did give one just a few months ago.


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## Gurgler (19 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

What do you see as the likely outcome options of the capital raising?

Dilution is often perceived as a negative (in short term) - in terms of sp action. Is it canny of management to bundle these two ann's together to avoid a rise followed by a fall?
I ask in ignorance - a little new to this!


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## noobs (19 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yeah agree with the rights issue being most equitable. I missed out on the last SPP by one settlement day


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## Halba (19 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

gurgler re: dilution.

The equity raising is $25m dollars.

The market potential of the drug is stated to be very high >$1bn.


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## noobs (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

The capital rasising ann according to the Herald:

WATCH what happens to the shares of biotechnology group Avexa when they start trading again today.
After a successful phase 2b trial of its AIDS drug ATC, the Richmond company had no problems landing a *$15 million placement from US investors.*

Locals will no *doubt jump on the two-for-five rights issue * at the same discounted price of 53c a share, helping to raise the $75 million needed to complete Phase 3 trials.

Normally a big capital raising would depress a share price that has already doubled in the last year.

But the trial results were so good and the AIDS market so large that Avexa shares could improve on their last trade of 68c.


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## Gurgler (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

And this from The Age yesterday:

*Avexa a possible takeover target with HIV drug success
Nabila Ahmed
March 20, 2007

MELBOURNE biotech Avexa could become a takeover target for multinational pharmaceuticals including GlaxoSmithKline, Merck and Gilead, analysts say, after the company unveiled successful clinical trial results for its HIV drug.*

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...iv-drug-success/2007/03/19/1174152970108.html


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## the barry (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Im going to buy some of these as soon as they come on the market. If phase 3 trials prove to be succesful, you will be laughing all the way to the bank.


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## Halba (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Any idea whether this is coming on mkt today?


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## Deadcat (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Don't know if they will come on today.  It seems to be building up some momentum through some great media coverage.


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## Deadcat (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

The Barry, out of curiosity, if you are going to buy these shares as soon as it comes on the market, around what price are you going to put an offer in?


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## the barry (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Will just pick them up at market as soon as they open. Would hope that they wouldn't open to much higher than the mid 70 range. There is a lot of hype in the media about them, being a take over target and valuations in the mid $1 mark. Would not be suprised to see them list near or above the 1 dollar mark though. Will pick them up regardless. Don't want to be seen as ramping, i don't hold any at present.


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## Halba (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Aspects valuation is $1.10. 15% quite a large royalty for Shire. 

On this basis it will come on at around $0.95 and go to around 80-85c post rights.


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## yo-yo (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Anyone know what time AVX is going to resume trading?


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## the barry (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				yo-yo said:
			
		

> Anyone know what time AVX is going to resume trading?




Should be any second.


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## the barry (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Just read the report, you will be entitled to buy 2 shares for every 5 you own as long as you are registered on the *29th of march*.You can buy these shares at 53 cents.


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## Halba (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

No barry that is incorrect. The EX date 23rd march to be entitled for rights. That means if you buy either today or tomorrow you will get rights. If you sell you will not get rights.


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## yo-yo (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Anyone reckon this will go higher? Seems to be a lot of overhead resistance!


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## the barry (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> No barry that is incorrect. The EX date 23rd march to be entitled for rights. That means if you buy either today or tomorrow you will get rights. If you sell you will not get rights.




Thanks mate, read the prospectus wrong. Got a bit too excited  :


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## the barry (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> No barry that is incorrect. The EX date 23rd march to be entitled for rights. That means if you buy either today or tomorrow you will get rights. If you sell you will not get rights.




Can you please explain something for me. If the X date  is the 23rd and the entitlement date is the 29th, when can you sell your shares if you purchase them tomorrow so that you are still entitled to the share entitlement? 

Thanks mate.


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## Halba (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

On the 23rd...if you sell after 23rd it won't be on the registrar at that date 29th.

Think of it like going ex dividend....if you sell on the ex dividend date you pocket the dividend.


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## yo-yo (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

If I purchased some AVX shares today would I be entitled to buy more AVX under the new prospectus at 0.53c a share?


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## Reefer (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes.  You can purchase today and tomorrow and participate in the new issue.
You could then sell on Friday 10am and still get the new entitlement.  Will be interesting to see where they settle on Friday a.m.


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## the barry (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				Reefer said:
			
		

> Yes.  You can purchase today and tomorrow and participate in the new issue.
> You could then sell on Friday 10am and still get the new entitlement.  Will be interesting to see where they settle on Friday a.m.




It states though on the 60 page announcement that you will get 2 shares for every stock you hold on the record date. Which is the 29th. If you buy tomorrow and then sell friday will you still be on record on the 29th? Or is it just from the time it goes x-date that you are entitled to buy them?


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## Go Nuke (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well......aren't I kicking myself!  
I said I was buying in (as per post 12)...but guess what....I didnt!  

I put my cash in ERN instead...lol.
Oh well...guess thats the game u play.
Sometimes its better to follow a hunch. Now Im broke...so cant get in

Glad to see that i didnt buy at that $1.20 mark it was sitting on during the trading halt. Its 96c now.

Goodluck all


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## Deadcat (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Email Avexa.  As I understand it, you can buy up until the 29th and then still get 2 for every 5.


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## Reefer (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I reckon it is pretty straight forward.  They will go ex-entitlement on Friday morning the 23rd.  That gives the company share registrars 6 days to process all the outstanding transfers which have  occurred up to Thursday night so that on 29th they have a fixed record of who is entitled to participate in 2:5 issue.  They then have to print all the entitlement forms based on that record date and get them out to us shareholders.  They will not process any transfers from Friday on (the ex date) so you can sell Friday and still get the new shares.  But the price will drop Friday am at least as far as the diluted price if not further imo.


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## Reefer (21 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

You should look at the HotCopper posts if you wish to get really confused. The majority opinion seems to be that buying up to the 29th will entitle you to the 2:5, but I think there will be a few disappointed punters who buy from Friday 23rd on, if that is what they are believing.


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## Gurgler (22 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Can someone explain to me the concept of Rights Trading?

The current prospectus states that Rights Trading commences on the 23 of March and ceases on the 12 April. During this period "Eligible shareholders are entitled to trade their rights". How?

What does this mean? Is it just applying for their entitlement? But this ceases on the 19th April????


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## bvbfan (22 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

The rights are the eligibility to take up the share offer (sorry don't follow this company) but I believe their is a 2 for 5 share offer at 55c or something.

The rights will trade under the code AVXR.

If you want you can sell your rights to someone on the market, but you are diluting your shareholding in the company if you don't accept.

But you make choose to do so if you have no money to take up the rights.


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## Deadcat (22 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Share rights 2 for every 5 at 53c.  To trade rights go to ASX and lookup.  I sold 3/4 of stock yesterday and retained 1/4 to take advantage of offer.


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## LifeisShort (22 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Renounceable Rights means the shareholder who has been allocated rights can on sell them on the market to another party. Basically you are getting a freebie by being allocating x amount rights depending on your holding at the time. Those freebie rights shares you can either sell to make a quick profit or you can exercise them by paying for them (55c) and keep them for yourself.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (22 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Sorry for sounding so silly -but if you purchased the share on the 22/3/07(today) are you still entitled to the rights issue?    Personally I'm not too bothered ,although it is a bonus ,if it comes my way


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## LifeisShort (22 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Sorry for sounding so silly -but if you purchased the share on the 22/3/07(today) are you still entitled to the rights issue?    Personally I'm not too bothered ,although it is a bonus ,if it comes my way




Yes today was the last day.....tomorrow shares trade ex entitlement which means you won't be eligible if you purchase shares from tomorrow


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## 3 veiws of a secret (22 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				LifeisShort said:
			
		

> Yes today was the last day.....tomorrow shares trade ex entitlement which means you won't be eligible if you purchase shares from tomorrow




Merci!


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## Go Nuke (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

So paying 95c for them a couple of days ago would be a bad thing compared to todays SP right?


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## Halba (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hi all I have liquidated my holdings in Avexa as of yesterday.

Proven to be a fruitful decision.

Reasons:

*Long lead time to commercialisation ~3 years

*NRTI's old technology - New competition in HIV such as Merck's one

*Highly dilutive impact of placement/rights issue

*High royalties paid to Shire ~15%


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## Go Nuke (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

You and everyone else selling by the looks Halba...
Thx!


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## the barry (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				Go Nuke said:
			
		

> You and everyone else selling by the looks Halba...
> Thx!




This one is a marathon not a sprint. I purchased yesterday before the x-entitlement and will not be selling. The four brokers currently have this stock valued between 1.32 and 1.42. That is at a 75 percent chance of success, at present they believe their is an 85 percent chance, adding further value to the valuations. My broker believes that they will be bought out within the next 12 months by one of the majors (between 1.50 and 2). Once people stop selling today to cover their entitlement, you will see the share price rise again. To sell today would be selling yourself short. 

Listen to the following link for further evidance of the potential of this stock.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/AVX/1243/21400/wmp/ep4ncgilsk


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## Go Nuke (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> This one is a marathon not a sprint. I purchased yesterday before the x-entitlement and will not be selling. The four brokers currently have this stock valued between 1.32 and 1.42. That is at a 75 percent chance of success, at present they believe their is an 85 percent chance, adding further value to the valuations. My broker believes that they will be bought out within the next 12 months by one of the majors (between 1.50 and 2). Once people stop selling today to cover their entitlement, you will see the share price rise again. To sell today would be selling yourself short.
> 
> Listen to the following link for further evidance of the potential of this stock.
> 
> http://www.brr.com.au/event/AVX/1243/21400/wmp/ep4ncgilsk




Its interesting to hear that in previous history 100% of phase 3 trials have made it to market!
And that they found no resistance to thier drug ATC from the HIV virus!
All sounds very positive...but I suppose that was always going to be a given.

Because im new here...is being bought out by one of the major companies a good or bad thing from an investors point of view?


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## noobs (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Go Nuke,

Some of the benefits for exisiting shareholders of AVX if it is taken over include:

- A higher stock price (Gen 20-30% Premium) 
- The opportunity to fast track the Phase III trials and move to market more quickly
- If it is a large company eg. Glaxo Smith etc. than it has more opportunity to market the drug and get into supply chains etc. because of its size & resources etc.

As for som disadvantages take a look at the PDN and SMM thread to see why being taken over isn't always a good thing even if they offer a premium on the current SP.

No doubt people can expand on this - Hope this helps


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## happytown (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



			
				Go Nuke said:
			
		

> Because im new here...is being bought out by one of the major companies a good or bad thing from an investors point of view?




GN,

Depends what your investment is - short or long term (and of course when the potential t/o where to eventuate and assuming you weren't shorting the stock if you were able to).

If you're short term and as noobs says nice premium chance and you were only interested in short term profit, good.

If you're longer term and it is a successful cash t/o you'd walk away with the t/o premium but be locked out of future potential for the products (unless you invested in the co doing the t/o).

Then of course there may be tax implications with cgt to consider if you were looking to hold long term and a short term cash t/o was successful.

These are just some possibilities.

cheers


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## Go Nuke (23 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Thanks guys.
Glad you could point this stuff out to me

I know all about the SMM/PDN thing. Ive got the paperwork in front of me
And i plan on saying no to PDN!

I think Im here for the long term. I dont know enough about trading yet to sell my shares at short notice.
Im just getting experience atm.


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## Go Nuke (26 March 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hey Kennas...I see in that Biostock report stuff u send me, they reccommend a "sell" for Avexa now.

How quickly things change from a "Buy" to a "Sell".

Im not selling though.


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## harriss2 (3 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hello to all,

I am new to sharetrading, and whilst have held Avexa for some time now, know nothing about "rights".

Can someone please answer me;  why can you purchase your allocated 'rights' for .53, when they are being sold, purchased for .18 today?  I don't understand the implications of this at all.

If the offer is taken up, are they then treated as ordinary shares, or are they still traded on avxr?


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## clowboy (3 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

They become ordinary shares.......

AXVR + 53c should equal current SP of AVX.

If you dont convert your AVXR to ordinary shares then they lapse.


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## harriss2 (3 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Thanks for the response Clowboy,

That helped, however, I would still like to know what happens to the shares on avxr being purchased for less than .20 atm.  Will they be treated as ordinary shares?


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## Sainter (3 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

As the name implies, they give you the right to buy a share, in this case for 53 cents. Think of them as a short term option-you need to pay 53 c to exercise the option (the right) and therefore obtain a proper share. You can choose not to exercise it, but why wouldn't you-you'd lose the price you paid for the right, otherwise. 
Cheers!


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## harriss2 (3 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Thank you Clowboy and Sainter,

The penny has dropped.  I now understand.


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## Go Nuke (4 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

So how or when do you find out how many rights you have?

And the expiry date.

Cheers


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## harriss2 (4 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I'm with Commsec.

Clicked on Position Statement, clicked View Holdings, and there they were.


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## Gurgler (4 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

If I choose not to trade the rights and do nothing, will they just post me the invitation to take up the right i.e. buy (2 for5) at .53?

Or do I have to do something specific? As I'm overseas atm, I'm  not able to read all correspondence I might be receiving.

I own AVX, it goes without saying.


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## Go Nuke (5 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hmmm....
Im not ashamed to say...but being new to shares. This is a new step for me.

Ive bever been given rights before...lol.

Im guesing that from what you guys have said, you get the "right" to pay 53c/share, then however many you buy then converts to a regular share.?

My girlfriends old man is a financial planner, but I like to learn my own way:>
Either way..i better start saving.


So, whats the expiry date then?


thx guys.


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## Go Nuke (5 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Has anyone received their paperwork yet?

I haven't.
Just read the prospectus online.

:aliena:


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## Gurgler (5 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Go Nuke said:


> Hmmm....
> Im guesing that from what you guys have said, you get the "right" to pay 53c/share, then however many you buy then converts to a regular share.?.



 Yup, that's how I read it see section 3.1 p.18




Go Nuke said:


> So, whats the expiry date then?





19 April, (according to p.5 of the 60 page doc - I haven't read it all!)

That doc also said dispatch was Tues 3 April, so any day now. Except I'm overseas - I have found the answer to my previous question - 'complete the Entitlement and Acceptance form accompanying the Prospectus' - doh!


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## Go Nuke (10 April 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well...no paperwork yet.

If I dont get it by tomorrow I spose I will call them.


----------



## Struzball (8 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I bought a few of these today, WilsonHTM forecast them to be up 140% in 12 months.  Anybody else bought recently?


----------



## Ruprect (8 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes, i had some before the share offer, so got some extra at .53. Have also picked up another small parcel today.

One of the brokers who gives tips in the Sunday Herald Sun, cant recall which one (dont know if that was Wilson?), had Avexa as a buy rec last weekend, they have a price target at $1.80, which is quite a substantial premium to its current 71 odd cents.

We might currently be seeing some sellers who have bought into the placement, taking profits. There was a 2 shares for 5 deal at .53, but they also allowed oversubscription (I didnt have enough cash at the time to get too many more unfort!)

I think it has solid potential, phase 3 trials will put it into the scope of doing a deal with a major pharma, or indeed takeover action. Just my opinion.


----------



## ozeb (9 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

bought this stock a few weeks back and it hasnt stopped falling. really testing my patience here...was there some bad news that i missed?? or is this a minor correction? i sure hope it lives up to its expectations...


----------



## Struzball (9 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



ozeb said:


> bought this stock a few weeks back and it hasnt stopped falling. really testing my patience here...was there some bad news that i missed?? or is this a minor correction? i sure hope it lives up to its expectations...




I suppose it's still just a correction from just after they announced successful phase II results.  I wouldn't sell now if I bought weeks back, but I'm in it for a year or so, not the very short term.


----------



## Gurgler (9 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



ozeb said:


> bought this stock a few weeks back and it hasnt stopped falling. really testing my patience here...was there some bad news that i missed?? or is this a minor correction? i sure hope it lives up to its expectations...




Hey, Ozeb, this is probably a little retrace - after all the hoopla over the share placement. This stock is worth the patience if you can spare it IMO. Have you read the recent Bioshares info. Send me your email address by PM and I'll forward it to you.


----------



## harriss2 (9 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Struzball said:


> I suppose it's still just a correction from just after they announced successful phase II results.  I wouldn't sell now if I bought weeks back, but I'm in it for a year or so, not the very short term.




Watched this stock on open this a.m. and was please it opened at .72.  Went to other stock opening, and when I came back to avx, a couple of minutes later, a trade of 3,000,000 had gone thru'.  The thing is, the low price was not .69.  When I came home from work, had a look at the close, and noticed an announcement.  Had a read, and Fibre Optics has sold 3,000,000 of their shares at .69.  They still hold over 18,000,000.  Had no idea what had happened as the volume for the day was over 6,000,000.  Some insto must have bought 3,000,000 this a.m., but as I said, the low price was not .69. The price hadn't changed from .72
Don't know how they work these things.


----------



## Purple XS2 (15 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

In medical terms, AVX appears to be doing exceptionally well, now it's all up to the business end. I hold about $8,000 worth, which is as much as I'm comfortable with any biotech stock.

On the subject of rights, as a holder of 2600 AVXR rights I did of course buy all my entitlement; the fine print provided for any holder to apply for _more_ then the actual rights held, so I applied for another 2,400. (all at 0.53). Curiously, I was successful in getting all the extras, a handy bargain. It pays to read these things carefully.
Makes we wonder though, the extra 2,400 was a bit too easy; was there a lot of caution out there in the AVXR holders?

All in all, I'm happy to hold.


----------



## Go Nuke (16 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well i was watching this stock for awile around the 53c ish mark..then the offer came out, so i bought some just to get into the offer.

Unfortunately by waiting for the share offer the price went skyward for a bit.

I bought at 96c {really spewing i held off for so long before hand}, however I guess if it does get to $1.80...Im happy with that.

It looks like we will be waiting for quite some time for anything to happen i think.
These trials will take there time.
Does anyone know what the next ann might be about that could be positive for us and when?


----------



## Ruprect (16 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Go Nuke said:


> Well i was watching this stock for awile around the 53c ish mark..then the offer came out, so i bought some just to get into the offer.
> 
> Unfortunately by waiting for the share offer the price went skyward for a bit.
> 
> ...




Buying at .96 shouldnt leave you too far down, if you got some of the placement at .53. 

Im not sure there will be an announcement for a while. But in my opinion, this one will slowly move higher over the next year. It already has two brokers who have a target price in the high $1's. Thus, the more they recommend this one to their people, the more interest there will be.

Its going to take some time for those who bought in on the the placement to sell down and take their profits. Plus, this one was trading well well below its current price since listing.

It deserved the re rating in my opinion, and will just take some time. Im holding, and will hold for the medium to long term.


----------



## Go Nuke (16 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Perhaps it could become a takeover target for someone luike Glaxo-Smith Klein?

Avexa has had some real success with its projects by the looks.


----------



## Sprinter79 (30 May 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

"Avexa (ASX:AVX) announced today that it has been awarded an Australian Government
Commercial Ready Grant worth $4.3m AUD to develop a new generation of HIV antiviral drugs
using ‘fragment based drug design,’ a non-traditional research methodology. Avexa will work with
CSIRO’s Molecular and Health Technologies division to discover inhibitors of the HIV integrase
enzyme which conventional techniques are unable to identify. This program can also be applied to
other antiviral targets."

As such, the sp is up 2.5% at the time of writing this


----------



## Ken (12 June 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Considering avexa as a long termer for the bottom draw, how is the time line looking for AVX.

I understand biotechs take a while to mature, is there anything significant on the horizon, a number of brokers have valuations of $1.50 -$1.80.

I think it will have another run at some stage, where is support for this?  around 60 cents now?


----------



## the barry (12 June 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Ken said:


> Considering avexa as a long termer for the bottom draw, how is the time line looking for AVX.
> 
> I understand biotechs take a while to mature, is there anything significant on the horizon, a number of brokers have valuations of $1.50 -$1.80.
> 
> I think it will have another run at some stage, where is support for this?  around 60 cents now?




They are hoping to start phase 3 trials at the end of this year and all going to plan, go into production at the start of 2010. They have a presentation in june i think at a medical conference which will hopefully create some exposure. This is definatly a long term hold with a lot of potential. No hiv drug that has gone to phase 3 hasn't gone onto production.


----------



## Go Nuke (19 June 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well its turning into a real DOG at the moment!

No signs of pulling up. I thought it might stop at around 59-60c seen as that was the price of their recent share purchase plan..but nope..its still falling.

I hope something is announced soon as i dont really have a stop set as Im a long termer and really have no idea when a stock will cease its decline.

Having bought at a high price to get access to the shares being offered at 59c..Im nott oo impressed at the moment


----------



## Sprinter79 (19 June 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I've got a stop in at 51.5c just below recent 'support'. 

There are a bunch of buyers lined up between 53-54c and a bunch of sellers at 60c, so it will probably bounce around between those two prices for a while.


----------



## Synergy (19 June 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I jumpped in a couple of weeks ago in the mid 60's on what i thought was going to be a brief down spike. I'm surprised its made it this low but not concerned long term. At what price do I buy more is the question...


----------



## Gurgler (23 June 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

If I had any spare money I would have been topping up over this period . I see the second half of this year as the time for big improvement in sp for AVX with Phase 3 trials occuring. Of course results might not appear until early 2008; but we have always considered this a long-termer.

This from FN Arena this week:

*Avexa Looks Cheap
FN Arena News - June 20 2007 

By Greg Peel

Relative biotech newcomer Avexa (AVX) burst on to the scenes in January when it acquired an HIV drug and proceeded to move into the testing phase. Having started the year at around 30c, the share price quickly rallied, culminating in a spike to almost a dollar in March when the company announced "highly successful results" on completion of its phase IIb trials.

Alas, as is often the case with microcap start-ups, the euphoria was short lived when Avexa announced a $75m capital raising in order to take the drug to phase III testing. $15m was placed with US investors at 53c, and a further $60m was to be raised through a rights issue. Despite receiving $76m in subscriptions for the issue a month later, the stock has not scaled the giddy heights again since, and is trading today at around 57c.

ABN Amro Morgans believes that at this price, the stock is cheap and provides a significant buying opportunity. The analysts have set a 12-month target price of $1.42.
The drug - apricitabine - is more than just a tongue twister. It is, of course, a novel nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. But then you probably knew that. Suffice to say, ATC, as it is thankfully known, is being developed to treat HIV patients currently proving resistant to other drugs.

As is the case with biotechs and their products, Avexa has a timetable of milestones ahead that should prove significant to the stock's fortunes. Trial results will be published at the International Aids Society conference in Sydney next month. Phase III testing sites will be initiated in the second half of '07 and a paediatrics trial will commence.

Says ABN Amro Morgans: "The current share price weakness creates a buying opportunity. The company is well funded with approximately A$80m in cash, sufficient to fund the Phase 3 trials for its HIV compound."

ABN anticipates the passing of the aforementioned milestones will have a positive impact on the share price.*


----------



## jibber (23 June 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



I bought in a few weeks ago and fingers crossed on this one... my guess is the bull punters are selling off above the 53c subscription for a nervous profit and/or end of tax year trading.....

I am reading some good things:

-directors are buying in...
-in absense of takeover bid (giddy up!), probably 2 years to enjoy strong returns
-recent Canadian research suggests ATC more active against drug resistant mutations than first thought
-more comprehensive data from 24 week trial probably released September


_The future is fish and Aids_


----------



## Sprinter79 (2 July 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

She's running nicely today. Up nearly 10% on the day as of writing this. Is there some more news coming, or have investors been taking notice of analysts predictions?


----------



## Ruprect (2 July 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Got a spec buy rec in The Australian last week. Plus i think it was well oversold in the lead up to end of fin year. They do have announcements coming.

*Avexa (AVX) 61.5c *

SHARES in the HIV treatment developer have drifted well off their March 22 peak of 98c, which makes for a buying opportunity for the intrepid. 

As is often the case with biotech stocks, the pull-back simply results from a dearth of recent news, good or bad. This is likely to change next month when Avexa fronts the Global Aids Symposium in Sydney with an update of its clinical trials. 

Avexa has already reported a positive start to the Phase 2B trials of its lead compound Apricitabine, involving advanced-stage patients who may have developed immunity to other treatments. 

Avexa is funded to the tune of $80 million, having raised $75million in a monster rights raising and placement in March. It's therefore well funded for the crucial Phase 3 testing period, scheduled for next year. Avexa hopes to enrol its first patients for the paediatric trial by the end of calendar 2007. 

In January, Avexa paid $12million to secure US and Canadian distribution, so it's not taking the usual approach of limiting the upside by doing a royalty deal with a big pharma partner. 

Criterion rated Avexa a SPECULATIVE BUY at 22c in October last year and at 57c in February. We maintain that call with the proviso that such stocks get hammered when markets turn really bearish (Wednesday's poncy 2 per cent sell-off doesn't count).


----------



## Sprinter79 (2 July 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Ruprect said:


> Got a spec buy rec in The The Australian last week.
> 
> (Wednesday's poncy 2 per cent sell-off doesn't count).




Did they actually write that, or did you add that in? If it was in The Australian, that's damn hilarious! I haven't heard that word for ages!!!


----------



## Ruprect (2 July 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Lol, no, thats all theirs. Sorry, i should have put it in italics. Poncy, yes, an underused word. Im sorry i cant claim credit for it.


----------



## Go Nuke (2 July 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well about time it picked up a bit!

Ive hated watching it slide so much especially after buying at a hefty price to gain acess to the rights issue

I dont know of any upcoming news though.


----------



## Sainter (4 July 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Positive 24 week phase IIb clinical update released today. Would explain the recent jump in the price.
Cheers!


----------



## Cubanpete (25 July 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Sydney Aids conference is on this week.  Fingers crossed that some more good news comes out and the share price goes for a little run!


----------



## Purple XS2 (4 September 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

ASX announcement 4 Sept: "...positive 24 week data from the phase 2b clinical
trial of apricitabine (ATC) ..."

Grains of salt under the tongue and all that, but is this good enough to take the big plunge? I hold a few $ 000 in AVX, should I go for more, I wonder? 

Wiser opinions appreciated.


----------



## Sainter (4 September 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I bought a few more today-should have the other week, really! Everything is risk vs reward, so you have to assess it for yourself. For me, I feel I know enough to be confident enough to have a wager on this one-all the signs are positive re the drug's effectiveness. You can argue that the sample set is not big enough, but geez, the results are still extremely compelling. Add to that the FDA's stance on AIDs drugs that have passed Phase II trials, and then look at the likelihood of Aids being eradicated (ie a cure) in the near future by a new technology. Then make up your mind. I am not a biochemist so I do not speak with authority re the science here. 
Good luck with your choice.
Cheers!


----------



## greenfs (5 September 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

A check on Commsec before opening indicates that AVX is on the rise with buyers outweighing sellers. This one owes me $0.71 so I am hopeful that COB today may see me break even.

I have no intention of considering selling unless/until the sp reaches $1 when I will review my position.


----------



## Go Nuke (5 September 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I watched AVX for months, then jumped on at .96c in March!

Being holding since (being new to shares and not knowing much) But I do fully believe that this company has a great product!

Perhaps one day a takeover from a bigger fish might help my holdings in AVX grow

Ive learnt the power of stop losses now, so should be right if it takes a dive in the future..hehe


----------



## greenfs (5 September 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*





In my opinion all three indicators (Volume, MACD & DMI) in this graph point to a sustained strengthening in the sp. It is important to note that with this stock when the DMI+ indicator takes over it uusually stays that way for a sustained period of time.

I will therefore now double my holding tomorrow and let the good times roll.


----------



## Gurgler (6 September 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> ASX announcement 4 Sept: "...positive 24 week data from the phase 2b clinical
> trial of apricitabine (ATC) ..."
> 
> Grains of salt under the tongue and all that, but is this good enough to take the big plunge? I hold a few $ 000 in AVX, should I go for more, I wonder?
> ...




Following on from that ann. this article today:

*Trials Results Suggest Further Upside In Avexa
FN Arena News - September 06 2007 *
By Chris Shaw

Quoting part thereof:

.... Where Avexa stands out in the broker’s view is the *results show success even against drug-resistant HIV*, meaning patients who have a number of treatment failures in the past have a chance of improving their condition........

The results put the company on course for *a Phase III trial *and it is currently preparing the protocols of this trial, the broker expecting it *will be conducted early in 2008.* A plus for the company is HIV trials tend to be relatively short, while the broker notes almost *90% of HIV drugs that return successful Phase II trials also successfully make it through the Phase III trial stage and onto the market.*

The broker’s valuation range for the stock is $0.54-$1.08 *so at current levels it likes the risk/reward scenario*. Its positive view is matched by *ABN Amro, which also rated the stock as a Buy with a price target of $1.37 *on the back of the Phase IIB trial results.



So some solace for those who have been hanging in there. I'm looking to top up should we have the expected market retrace over the coming fortnight; at what level, who knows.


----------



## Go Nuke (6 September 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Did anyone see this news this morning out of the USA about Merck's anti AIDS drug?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aFo9RygznaOs&refer=us

I am curious to know if this has any reflection on Avexa's treatment plans.
Will it makes Avexa's ATC drug outdated? 

Almost worth a phone call to AVX.


----------



## greenfs (2 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Some positive movements in the sp in recent days without any ann. Whilst it cannot yet be viewed as a breakout, hopefully the momentum will continue and the share will achieve price of $1+ in line with what some analysts were forecasting only a few months ago. Updated chart is attached and I continue to hold at cost price of about $0.71.


----------



## greenfs (4 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

SP is up another 4+% this morning again on no news. This might soon become a breakout although the current sp of 70 cents has in recent times always proven a level of resistance. If it gets to 75 cents and is sustained, I think we will then have potential for a substantial breakout.

It will be interesting to see if news follows as turnover in the stock is defintely up over the past 3 days.


----------



## greenfs (8 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

We have definitely reached position where we have at worst a potential breakout with this share having reached $0.755 today well above the resistance level of $0.70.

No need to post another graph on this thread as subscribers can rely on the earlier one which I posted last week.


----------



## Go Nuke (8 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yeah the sp has definitely been on the up and up lately.

Perhaps an ann or something in the comming month?

Please correct me if I'm wrong but the chart kinda looks like a reverse head and shoulders to me.

Looking good though


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (8 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



greenfs said:


> We have definitely reached position where we have at worst a potential breakout with this share having reached $0.755 today well above the resistance level of $0.70.
> No need to post another graph on this thread as subscribers can rely on the earlier one which I posted last week.





Well I'm still speculating on this AVX as you know , rocket fuel science is showing this share is heading up to blue-skies.... apart from the specualtion,I must admit I'm miffed when to exit on this stock.
Patience and a steady mind is my main focus.......... but I guess everybody is bullish on the forthcoming announcement....


----------



## greenfs (9 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well 3 Views. It mebbe that we can ride this one to the moon as it has reached $0.82 this morning on good volume still with no news.

Whatever is driving this break out has got to be really good news.

I am surprised that ASX has not come a knocking with a price query/speeding ticket.


----------



## EZZA (10 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

stock pulled back to 75.5 c today.  Hoping this will a slight pullback before pushing even higher.  Will expect it to hold above 75c before pushing up if the uptrend continues.

Huntley have a price target of 1.20 1.70 with takeover likely over next 6 months. Hope they are right.


----------



## greenfs (18 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Broker Tips section of today's Melbourne Sun Newspaper has a buy recommendation with a price target of $1.30 for this stock.

It suggests that AGM in 11/2007 should realise some solid announcements. Yesterday, based upon the sound fundamentals already announced, I doubled my position in this stock. For non-holders the time appears to now be right to consider investing.

Some analysts are also spruiking that all being well this stock will be taken over at slightly less than $2.


----------



## Gurgler (18 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

GFS, thanks for the heads up on this.

I've been holding a while and considering topping up; as you say, now maybe the time. Good luck to all holders.


----------



## greenfs (19 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

The following daily charts shows a sustained increase in volume without any ann. To me this would appear to indicate that someone is quietly building a stakeholding in the coy...


----------



## Big_Daz (21 October 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

....being one of my first investments into the market was Avexa and have not let me down

a takeover target for sure! Have heard from numerous sources that there is more good things to come....hopefully we can see some steady appreciation and more positive results from the phase III trials....


----------



## Cubanpete (2 November 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Seems avx has fallen asleep these past few weeks.  Lets hope something happens in the next week or two


----------



## greenfs (18 November 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

AVX has AGM this coming Tuesday morning. I for one would be more than a little disappointed if the resulting announcements at the AGM do not result in the sp increasing well above the current sp and hopefully in the direction of $1.

In fact, it will be interesting to watch the volume & sp direction tomorrow in advance of the announcement.

I trust & hope that this post will not result in a ramping charge


----------



## ghostrider7au (18 November 2007)

*AVX AGM*

I agree. I note the volume on AVX recently has been very low which indicates everyone is simply waiting on the AGM and what announcements may be forthcoming. Considering the company has raised $75M for the phase 3 trials, anything other than an announcement of the start of the phase 3 trials will undoubtedly result in a slide backwards in the share price. On the positive side the company has been quiet of late with announcements, so Tuesday may see some positive news and a great opportunity for the company to announce the Phase 3 commencement which I guess would result in a significant re-rating upwards of the AVX share price.


----------



## greenfs (20 November 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

AGM notes confirm that Phase 3 testing is proceeding. May have to be a little patient with this share than I thought as the price today is down with the market, which I did not expect.


----------



## Go Nuke (20 November 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I could be way off but I am predicting that the sp might start to slide down.

People just dont seem to want to hold onto these bio stocks when they have to wait so long for results (results which push the sp up)
I guess people think in the short term their money will do better elsewhere.

DYOR but I'm just having a punt based on my other bio stocks that are now waiting for 12-18months for their clinical trials to finish.

CUV for example.

Still...its great news for Avexa. I'm sure this product will hit the shelves for HIV sufferers in the future.


----------



## semochen (26 November 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

does anyone know if there is any news on AVX today??

today's low now 0.515... nearly 20% fall already....


----------



## Logique (26 November 2007)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Haven't seen any announcement. Back up to 0.565 at a little after 2pm.
Unless it's something we haven't been told yet, I'm not overly concerned yet. Company working toward Phase III trial, might just be some impatient holders.


----------



## Goldmann (16 January 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Also alot of holders would of now passed their 12 month holding and will be unloading after getting in at 20c (like i did etc)...

I will still hold this one long term though... seems way to much upside...

And ABN AMROs recently put out another buy on the stock at mid 50s.


----------



## yawomanjas (16 January 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Goldmann said:


> Also alot of holders would of now passed their 12 month holding and will be unloading after getting in at 20c (like i did etc)...
> 
> I will still hold this one long term though... seems way to much upside...
> 
> And ABN AMROs recently put out another buy on the stock at mid 50s.




Being in the medical field...once a drug is in stage III trial on the back of success at the IIB level....I am very confident that AVX is going to be ok....

I am surprised however, how well the stock has held up during this correction....

I too am holding on this one...but FYI

ABN...buy...target of 1.39 as of 7/1
Bell Potter...buy...target of 1.35 as of 27/11
Intersuisse...buy...target 87c as of 6/11
Aspect Huntley...buy..target 90c as of 30/11

I am sure the latter two will re-rate their target price as we now enter stage III trials


----------



## AnDy62 (16 January 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I hold this stock too. Does anyone know (roughly) how long this phase III last for? The share price is frustrating but people will come back on it as the end of this phase approaches I would imagine


----------



## yawomanjas (16 January 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



AnDy62 said:


> I hold this stock too. Does anyone know (roughly) how long this phase III last for? The share price is frustrating but people will come back on it as the end of this phase approaches I would imagine




Andy..since they are going to give a higher dose medication in stage III..the dosing part of the trial is expected to go for 24 weeks..with the trial expected complete sometime in H12009....

The good thing about this is that previously.... all 34 out of 34 HIV drugs have passed stage III trials since 1989...the balance of probabilities is in our favour

I think the results from Stage IIB to be released sometime this quarter and also feedback from preliminary results from stage III, combined with the fact that this company may be a takeover target will support the share price...
as u can see the current shareprice..yes it has gone down but we are in a big correction at the moment...and its holding up better than I thought it would


----------



## Goldmann (23 January 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

first stock i ever bought... on a tip from a mate when it was 27c. then got access to more at 20c... seen it up and down since then, but couldnt resist buying more yesterday at the absurd price of .38

I am long on this one all the way!


----------



## Goldmann (4 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I know their 48 week trial data should be released 1Q 08 - any idea when though... hopefully it doesnt coincide with another -100pt day for the ASX...


----------



## Goldmann (5 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I know i am replying to myself... but in all this doom and gloom AVX up 10% today... hopefully good news ahead RE the above... fingers crossed...


----------



## Go Nuke (5 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

You might be talking to yourself mate but I'm hearing ya

I always cast an eye over my stocks that i hold on ASF.

Its a real shame that the sp has fallen so far, but as i'm learning not all that suprising with Bio stocks as it takes so long for clinical trials and any news.

Perhaps this build up in the sp is the start of people comming in becasue of forthcomming news?

Though I reckon that 30+c is pretty cheap considering they are 99% of going to market with their AIDS drug.


----------



## Goldmann (6 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

yeah, my portfolio is heavily weighted with this one... first stock i ever bought... the peoples champion...

Up 15% again today in early trade - hopefully are return of its rightful place around .60c... ABN AMROs has had a buy out on this for quite a while, and even FAT PROPHETS like it - so i am quietly confident... provided none of the trial participants grow an extra leg or something! haha


----------



## ricky0252003 (6 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

AVX replied me that they will release an announcement in regard to the phase 3 test in the last week this month. around 24 Mar. However I sold all my avx today. I expected a fall in the coming weeks. I'll buy in at that time


----------



## The Ferret (6 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



ricky0252003 said:


> AVX replied me that they will release an announcement in regard to the phase 3 test in the last week this month. around 24 Mar. However I sold all my avx today. I expected a fall in the coming weeks. I'll buy in at that time




Phase 3 or the full data for phase 2b? I thought the phase 2b full results were due this month?.................................


----------



## Pimping (6 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

It will be interesting to see if that announcement is indeed made in the last week of this month or earlier. Judging by the rise in sp over the last 2 days it looks like their might be a bit of insider stuff going on?


----------



## Pimping (6 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I don't know why but it seems my posts are getting deleted randomly?

Anyway if I have done something wrong please let me know as all I was trying to say is this share appears to be uptrending and could a technical trader shed some light?


----------



## AnDy62 (6 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Today was a nice day, I love the fact this share can recover so quickly. I make a lot more than


----------



## AnDy62 (10 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Bought some more today. I'm just hoping for a recovery in the DOW overnight because AVX is very sensitive at the moment. Large number of buyers are stacking up which makes me think, especially given some recent rises, that interest is returning. If history is any guide, this boy can really fly with some good news. I topped up today, albeit with a pretty tight stop. I think the 'reward' with this one makes it a serious contender. DYOR


----------



## Goldmann (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Could be very good timing with your buy!

AVX in trading halt this morning pending release of 48 wk Phase II trial data.

here we go... all aboard the AVX rollercoaster!!!


----------



## The Ferret (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

This is bull****!! Results are unreal... was going to open up 10% but then a rush a people selling out huge parcels... WTF??


----------



## Goldmann (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yeah sold as low as .40????

Results were sensational... its not like they had already been factored in?

Has to be a massive takeover target now...


----------



## The Ferret (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

What astounds me, time and time again, with any company you wish to name, is that people fail to understand and use market depth to their advantage. Why on earth would you stack the sellers side with your huge sell order if you wanted to get out?? Who in their right mind would flood supply when trying to get a higher price?? It beggars belief. I NEVER put sell or buy orders to market until the price I want is the current offer or bid. Why queue up and reveal your intentions to the market? All it does is drive the buying/selling pressure in the opposite direction. Madness.....


----------



## Justthinkin (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I too share your angst about people not paying attention to market depth. As we speak AED has a sell orders at 194 of about 280K. Total buy orders (at any price sub 194) is about 350K. If I was suspicious I'd think it was market manipulation ...


----------



## Go Nuke (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yep they sounded like awesome results to me too and I was amazed to see all the sell orders lined up

Doesn't seem right does it.
I mean its still trading below the rights issue from last year of 52c i think it was.
If i were a bigger fish and someone threw the "takeover" word around, i'd certainly have a close look at AVX.
They have a drug that WILL go to market.

Its fustrating considering I bought in at a rather high price to take advantage of the rights issue...and the sp cant even make it to .52c on a day like today with a fab ann

Perhaps people will see the error of their ways tomorrow and rush in with buy orders


----------



## The Ferret (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

It's certainly frustrating waiting for SP to return to where you bought at.. I have experienced that on more than a few occassions lol, but not with this one thanks to some averaging down I did when they were around the 35c mark. Hang in there... they'll come back.

Perplexed about the mass exodus though.... not sure what those sellers were in for anyway!?!


----------



## Goldmann (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Perhaps alot of people knowing that this is the last "good news" for a while... so with the market the way it is, it is bound to bounce between .45 and .35...

My average .32 - but I too was much happier when it was up around .6 and .7

Long term this one is a doosey, but yeah - be prepared for lots of ups and downs along the way...


----------



## The Ferret (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Read this story on Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=afeSIETHqhkI&refer=australia

Part reads 







> We can safely say we've got a drug here,'' said Scott Power, a health-care analyst at ABN Amro Morgans Ltd. in Brisbane. He rates the stock a ``buy'' and expects it to reach 92 cents within 12 months




Not sure about the last bit of story though as someone else is quoted saying 







> "The size of the dose and the number of pills -- patients in the study took apricitabine in two capsules twice daily -- may be a challenge in a market where patient preference is to simplification,''.



Personally I thought the patients preference is to stay alive...


----------



## AnDy62 (12 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I was offended by today's performance. The news was fantastic, the market shot up and then these wan*ers suppress the price. Anyway, some good news for those sensible holders among us-

From a historical perspective, all HIV drugs that have reached Stage III have gone on to commercial release- TICK. Should AVX follow suit, it will well positioned to gain access to the lucrative HIV market, which *totalled 7 billion *last year alone - takeover anyone?

Avexa recently joined forces with Monogram Biosciences to provide HIV resistance and tropism testing technology

Patience my friends, it may be well worth the wait


----------



## Goldmann (13 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well if you were offended by yesterdays performance, today will have you livid....  

I think it will bob up and down like this for some time... I'm thinking I should of cut and run for a while at .44


----------



## Go Nuke (13 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

WTF...sold down HARD today!!

-10.23%

I must agree with what Goldmann said.



> Perhaps alot of people knowing that this is the last "good news" for a while... so with the market the way it is, it is bound to bounce between .45 and .35




If there is 1 thing ive learnt about Bio stocks it is that when the ann keep roling out, the sp keeps climbing...but now that we have to wait years for the test result= no news so whats to keep the sp up.

Unlike commodities where its supply and demand, Bio's dont have that.

Sure to be oversold and expect a bounce back to at least 48c soon.


----------



## Wilsta (13 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hang in there AVX buddies!  Sell now and you'd be another sheep.  If you bought below 50c - take comfort that you have this stock at a good price.

To say 'no more announcements are on their way soon' isnt totally true - I believe it could be sudden - perhaps in the form of a takeover bid or more collaboration - perhaps with the distribution of this drug when it reaches market.   

This company is worth peanuts compared with the 'potential' upside.  Dont worry about the market so much as things that directly impact the marketability or effectiveness of this drug.  I think accumulate!!!


----------



## The Ferret (13 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Plus it is no secret that AVX have said they are actively seeking development partners if the terms are right.... so, there will be announcements I am sure.

We may see some institutional investors coming in too..... who knows?


----------



## Trend (13 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

The drop in the SP is a case of buy the rumour and sell the fact.  I think that volumes are still quite low and indicate day traders or short term investors.  Day trading is a mugs game with a large percentage of traders loosing money.  

I bought in at 49 and at the time believed I got a good price.  I dont believe AVX's true value has dropped since then even though the SP has dropped.  So I will sell when the market has put a fair price on AVX.


----------



## Goldmann (14 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yeah your probably both right... just frustrating seeing companys SP below what "you" would think is fair and right.. but I spose AVX arent alone in this boat... I would think that Eddy Groves thinks $2 is a little under fair for ABC haha...  

I will continue to hold this one... probably until they get this thing to market - or they are taken over... either day will be a glorious one for those of us who got the SPP at .20 about 2 years ago...   Cant help but think though, selling half at .70, then repurchasing them at .40 would of been brilliant...


----------



## AnDy62 (14 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Wilsta said:


> Hang in there AVX buddies!  Sell now and you'd be another sheep.  If you bought below 50c - take comfort that you have this stock at a good price.
> 
> To say 'no more announcements are on their way soon' isnt totally true - I believe it could be sudden - perhaps in the form of a takeover bid or more collaboration - perhaps with the distribution of this drug when it reaches market.
> 
> This company is worth peanuts compared with the 'potential' upside.  Dont worry about the market so much as things that directly impact the marketability or effectiveness of this drug.  I think accumulate!!!




Couldn't agree more. And a good way to beat those pesky traders is to take advantage of when they dump a stock, i.e. AVX after this announcement. Get in at lower prices and wait for announcements/ buyers to start coming back on board. AVX is moving back to support levels around 35c. Should it hold, I will accumulate. My old man is a doctor and when he  saw the ann he was very, very impressed with the stats which mean a lot more to him than me...


----------



## Goldmann (19 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

ABN AMROS issue another BUY on AVX... however 30% reduction in target price due to volatility in the market...  Target price down from 1.32 to .92.

thinking of picking up even more while at this price...


----------



## Wilsta (19 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Friends, who has done their homework?  Below are some questions you are able to answer (google it!) ...  

Hopefully you all have googled 'undetectable viral loads' and know what that means.  

Since ATC is being compared (favourably) with 3TC - who has done their homework on 3TC?  Revenue?  Profit?  Side effects?  Effectiveness?

Hopefully you all know that Avexa has a market value of $160'ish million  - compare this with the performance of 3TC (i.e. imagine Avexa made 3TC instead of ATC - knowing what we know now about 3TC).

Who has done their homework on other potential competitors?

ABN Amro - their valuation assumptions are on the Avexa website, what do you think of them?  Conservative (if ATC comes to market)?


----------



## Goldmann (19 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

If ATC comes to market - then considerable risk is gone... considering the size of this market - you would have to think that $1 is conservative... just a matter of being patient with this one... 

I must say that i have no scientific qualifications and are hardly an expert in biomedicine, but the AVX story is getting wraps everywhere except the ASX... 

"it wont happen over night, but it will happen"...


----------



## Trend (19 March 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I think if there are no unforseen problems and ATC goes to market the share price will pick up but this could take a while.  I have owned a few stocks such as LHG that took a couple of years to take off.  So unless there is a takeover offer in the mean time or some bigger Institutions move onto the share registry we will just have to be patient.  At least the selling has slowed.


----------



## Pimping (10 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Has anybody got thoughts on this one? Rueters has rated this as a strong buy, I wonder if at these prices the share is looking oversold? Can any body do their sums on the value of share price compared to cash and other assets?


----------



## Wilsta (10 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I think its being sold off because of the [expected] lack of major news to come out in the next few months.  _Why hold a speculative company when there is nothing to fuel the speculation_?  ... at least I believe this to be what the average investor thinks.  

However there is no good in buying after the fact - and I'm willing and able to hold and accumulate.  If you are able to hold for at least the next 9 to 12 months and believe in the fundamentals .  The share price doesnt bother me - and I definitely dont try to pick a bottom.  But the lower it goes (in the absence of bad news) the more I buy.  But dont over-expose yourself either - it still is a speculative stock.

They also have plenty cash a.t.m .. so hopefully they wont ask us again soon for more.


----------



## Go Nuke (10 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I doubt they will ask us for more money.

Avexa still has nearly 60Mil or something like that.

I'm suprised to see the sp as low as it is, though i totally agree with Wilsta.

This is a long term hold with no news forthcoming anytime soon while the clinical trials are ongoing.

This sort of stuff takes awhile.
But personaly if I had any money I'd be keen to perhaps add to my holding to lower my average buy in price (currently about 70c)
Though as I just stated above, the sp may fall further yet

DYOR


----------



## AnDy62 (10 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well, hard times for Avexa's share price atm.

But I've found (and don't take this as advice) that often AVX picks up when you're feeling like giving up on it it . Let's hope... 

For me, I take solace in the thought that what the value of their ATC drug if/when it gets bought out (in a lucrative, yet sufficiently competitive mkt) ... will be the same irrespective of their share price.. in which case, the price should play catch up.

Might be a good time to accumulate, I can't see the share going down the gurgler with it's prospects/cash position but who knows eh?


----------



## gilbo (12 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Don't bet on the fact that there won't be some fundraising activity - the accelerated Phase 3 trials they are now embarking on at the behest of the US FDA cost around $100m so if a rather large partner doesn't arrive soon watch out for the prospectus!


----------



## Big_Daz (17 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

What does everyone think about the appointment of the new non-executive director today?

With a specialisation in takeovers and mergers, is this now a time to start thinking of accumulating with this stock?


----------



## Purple XS2 (18 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Big_Daz said:


> ... the appointment of the new non-executive director  ... with a specialisation in takeovers and mergers ... is this now a time to start thinking of accumulating with this stock?




Avexa management has 2 major tasks:

1. to conduct the Phase III trials successfully (which means: the trials correctly evaluate the worth of ATC. Just what that worth is is irrelevent to the objective of correctly evaluating it).

2. To finance the above.

I have a high degree of confidence in management's ability on Task 1, from an administrative and medical perspective.

Task 2 requires outside factors. AVX had the dough to get Phase III rolling, but sometime this calendar year they will need extra $$. At a guess I would say $50 Mil +. Good sense suggests they get this aspect of the show well under way as soon as possible.

This is what we can hope for from the new non-exec. His task I presume is to explore the alternative to raising $ from the existing shareholders and assorted Johnny come-laters. The merger/farm-in/partnership angle may or may not be the best outcome, but it makes perfect sense to have a very serious look at it.

So anything could happen from here: actually my guess is that nothing much will happen publicly for 2 or 3 months. By that time, Avexa mangement should be in a position to bite the bullet and jump into bed with whichever is the best Big-Pharma/bankroller, or if none are sufficiently appealing, to issue a prospectus.

So is now a good time to accumulate?
Well, yes it is, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the price going below 30 cents before it goes up again to where-ever.

So long as ATC remains as it now is: promising and unproven, then at 30-40 cents, Avexa is spekkie-heaven.



Disclaimer: I hold, and if I wasn't already deeply committed, I'd be scooping up more. My accumulation phase was in the 50-70- cent range.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (18 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> Avexa management has 2 major tasks:
> 
> 1. to conduct the Phase III trials successfully (which means: the trials correctly evaluate the worth of ATC. Just what that worth is is irrelevent to the objective of correctly evaluating it).
> 
> ...




Buenos tardes....
I must admit your post makes good reading ,but lets not forget Phase III has prove its point ,then your presumptions ,will lead us out of the wilderness of low 30 cents!  I too hold bucket fulls of this share ,I hope my bucket does'nt leak anymore!


----------



## Wilsta (23 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Ahhhhhhhh the price has fallen through 30c!!! 

Buying opportunity?   Lets consider that many traders would see the 30c mark as a support/floor for this stock ... and since it has fallen through this point they are all selling off - no doubt stoplosses and emotion are driving the volume.  

While being a trader could be lots of fun - at the moment I have only money for investment [albeit speculative investment] - and I see nothing yet which indicates AVX to be any less of an investment than it was last week when it went to 35.5c. 

GET IN THERE!


----------



## Go Nuke (23 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yeah not good to see it fall through 30c

But not suprising either as Ive expressed in my previous posts.

There is some clear support at about 24-25c range (mostly based on a P&F chart) after that its (touch wood) around 17.c support. But that would be madness if it reached that level with the potential Avexa have.

**Stuffed that support line sorry, but support is 24-25c.**


----------



## AnDy62 (23 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Rebound back to 60-70c, oh how I wouldn't mind that 

Ok then, you're on! :

I'm worried there might be a bit of bad news coming, high volume today and a very bad performance on a bullish day. Please not! Even good news doesn't seem to help the price. Opes Prime had their filthy hands on this stock didn't they? Maybe the pain will end when that's cleaned up.


----------



## Wilsta (29 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Howist going AVX buddies?  Biting your nails over this stock?  DONT.  

Okay so lets face facts - the stage II 48 week data (though great) didn’t have the reaction we all anticipated.  This was probably due to everyone with an interest in this stock (institutional included) had bought it already.  The only option for traders [not investors] was to sell off since they didn’t get the rise they were hoping for.  

Okay, where does that leave people who actually believe in AVX?  The biggest risk comes from the drug itself - but we won't know anymore about the ATC for a while yet.  

The 2nd biggest risk [I believe] is the need for more cash to fund the stage III trials.  With the credit problems out there these days - AVX may find it difficult to secure funding.  Though I believe this hurdle wouldn’t be too difficult given the progress thus far - and once funding is secured [assuming it to be from outside AVX] this will secure the stage III trials future - but more importantly will show that there is confidence in ATC [since the funding company would have performed due diligence no doubt].  

With risk reduction comes price rise [provided its not already built in to the price - which I dont think it is].

Let me know what you guys think - I'm no market analyst, though studying to hopefully be one oneday haha


----------



## Logique (30 April 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes holding long. All looks good for the ATC drug, don't think they would have trouble if they did need to secure finance for phase III trials. Successful phase II trials says to me it's only a matter of time for success to come. Don't want to be caught short on this one.


----------



## Cubanpete (8 May 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Find attached Wilsons Htm report on Avexa from 7th May.  

What are peoples thoughts?  Been holding long term but its got me a little worried...


----------



## Go Nuke (8 May 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hey thanks for sharing that info mate.

Well, it sounds like Wilsons have someone on the Avexa case

Not all good news from their point is it
I too would have thought that merck would be a great partner for Avexa. I guess the problem for us investors is that these clinical trials take so bloody long.
Hopefully Avexa will suprise us with a partnership sometime this year. I reckon they will.

As for Wilsons evaluations, they aren't good from my point of view. Even their best price target is 89cps. That would still put me at a bit of a loss...I think. I cant remember how many i picked up during the rights issue

Hey it would also only take a bit of positive exposure to the Australian Bio sector to also help out the share price.

Guess im holding for a while yet.


----------



## Wilsta (9 May 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I'm still in the process of reading the article - but two things stand out so far:
- they havent met with the new member of the board who (I believe) was hired to aid in raising funds (which is one of the reports biggest concerns).  
- they have decreased deal related probabilities by a conservative 20% .. I believe this should be lower (5 - 10%) in reality as it is less likely a deal would take place in the two months since their last valuation.  The more time that passes the greater the chances of a deal in the remaining time etc - its not a uniform distribution.

Any thoughts?

Given the conservative approach, I'm still happy with their valuation and see it as a floor price for the stock if all goes to plan.


----------



## AnDy62 (25 May 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Broke support at 30c. I'm not really a trader, but that's not a good sign. Luckily, I'm in for the long term. The main issue of course is financing, given the drug looks a winner.

*Financing- *I'd prefer to avoid dilution with issuing shares at these prices, however I'd accept this as a last resort. A partner would be lovely, but;

Current environment is risk adverse and could be going downhill. However, the drug IMO is just too promising for AVX to not make it in terms of financing. One way or another I think it will prevail, though further downside may well present itself.

But taking a longer view, given financing, the issue then is seeing Phase III out or getting bought out. Given the success to date, I'm willing to take this risk quite happily. At this stage, AVX will have entered the lucrative HIV market and SP worries will be a thing of the past.

That's why I'm willing (I won't say happy ) to see AVX with a red number next to its name in my portfolio. Cheers, DYOR as always.


----------



## uahmad (3 June 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

this ones been sideways for a while now.. nothing really happening..

Anyone know how far were off with phase III trials?


----------



## Go Nuke (4 June 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well i see todays announcement as good news.

I think its great to see Avexa dyversify into other drugs other than focusing solely on AIDS.

Perhaps if people here are speculating on AVX raising more capital, this might make them think that even more.

28c seems to be a good bottom for AVX's sp. But I'm not convinced that today will see a reversal in the trend.


----------



## Gurgler (8 June 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Another surge through the Bollinger band (on volume) - prepare for a drop in SP. That's what has happened three times over the past six months.


----------



## Wilsta (8 June 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

It rose due to the new report from ABN Amro on their website as well as their recent announcement...

But think it will fall along with the market on Monday ... even though high oil prices and higher unemployment in the US have little to do with them...

US fell by HEAPS on Friday trading ... buying opportunities all round.


----------



## trezzy (9 June 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Ah not the news I was after! I just got on board on Friday! Though I hope AVX is gonna be a takeover target before the year's out , will be good for the company and even better for all of us 

The analyst reports are still all coming back really good, so we will see how things go.

The market was down last week, but AVX went against the trend. Hopefully they do the same tomorrow with the predicted market whipping as per DJ on Friday :S


----------



## Gurgler (17 June 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



trezzy said:


> Ah not the news I was after! I just got on board on Friday!





Sorry to hear that, Trez. However, perhaps there is improvement on the horizon (apart from the stage 3 trials - although results not likely until early 2009) as FN Arena released this today:

*Healthcare Stocks Currently Extra Attractive
FN Arena News - June 17 2008 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Healthcare analysts at ABN Amro Morgans believe investors taking another look at the Australian healthcare sector for their next set of investments seems like a sensible idea. After all, the sector is believed to be less affected by credit market concerns as well as by higher oil prices due to its largely non-discretionary nature.

For those investors willing to cast their eye over the sector, ABN Amro Morgans would advise to zoom in on the larger market capitalised companies that also have sustainable cash flow. The broker currently prefers CSL (CSL), Ramsay Healthcare ((RHC)) and Primary Healthcare ((PRY)).

For those investors looking for potentially larger investment profits, and willing to take more risks on board, the broker advises to zoom in on more speculative stocks that offer "short term value enhancing milestones" in combination with no funding problems whatsoever (the market is not really keen on debt or even increased debt in the current environment).

The stockbroker's current preferences at the more speculative end of the sector include ChemGenex ((CXS)), Avexa ((AVX)) and Impedimed ((IPD)). The latter should see FDA clearance for its lead product in the professional market in the third quarter of the current calendar year.*


----------



## Go Nuke (17 June 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Wilson and ABN Amro have had a buy on Avexa for about as long as i can remember to be honest.

Thats at least 12months.

ABN also have a buy on another stock i hold *CUV* which is shaping up quite nicely.

I'd rather have been buying into that now rather than at $1 .

But I was a new born to shares then.


----------



## Pimping (22 July 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

No talk on this one for a while, anyone still following? good volume yesterday on the back of the article in financial review, wonder how the merger talks are going Mr. Nathan Drona?


----------



## craftyluke (22 July 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Can anyone shed some light on the jump in share price today? I know there has been some speculation on a takeover lately. Anyone know anything?


----------



## Go Nuke (22 July 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Wow I always look at this thread for comments as I'm a holder of Avexa..but you guys have read/heard more than i have.

Takeover...what this about???

I sold out of FMG today and nearly thought about buying more in AVX to try average down.
But Ive set to see a Bio stock trend like a mining stock lately..lol.

I'll have to find that article in the Fin.
Othere than that, no idea about why the sp is heading up and up. Except that i'm happy to see it do so...as its still well below the rights issue from ages back

*Couldn't find that article...is there any way you could post it for us? Thx*


----------



## subaru69 (22 July 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Go Nuke said:


> Takeover...what this about???




Hey Nuke, see you've got the same avatar still. 

I've been watching both CUV and AVX for some time.  I think both are great potential takeover targets.  I work in a related industry and the facts are that these guys can't bring product to market in a meaningful way unless they are bought out.

I was suprised that CUV only had a minor jump when it was given a WHO generic name for its compound.  Looking at buying them when they get down to 30c, problem is they trade at such low volume.

If you look at AVX's chart from the middle of April onwards there are a series of spikes but a consistent level ~30c that it comes back to.  I was going to buy in a while ago but it was too volatile and I was worried there was more downside.  Now I'm in around 28c, but once again volumes are low.

I have read somewhere that a potential takeover price for AVX is ~$1. (see attachment, sorry it's old - 17th Jan '08)

Ps - didn't get to buy that Porsche today  , missed PDN this morning


----------



## Go Nuke (23 July 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



subaru69 said:


> Hey Nuke, see you've got the same avatar still.
> 
> I've been watching both CUV and AVX for some time.  I think both are great potential takeover targets.  I work in a related industry and the facts are that these guys can't bring product to market in a meaningful way unless they are bought out.
> 
> ...




LOL..its ok I reckon you might have another chance at that porsche yet

Interesting to hear your thoughts on these 2 companies. As I stated some time ago ABN AMRO have had this stock as a buy for...well forever (or so it seems)
Sadly I got in quite a bit higher than where they are trading now, so if a takeovcer were to come out I'd be hopeing its $1+ as to not cop a loss Oh though I did buy in at a high price to get the rights issue which was at 52c from memory..so $1+ would then be quite good.

Almost the same deal for CUV. Buy rating for ages..bought in around $1.
I bought into bio's to dyversify. But these were some of the first stocks I ever bought, when i knew nothing about the stock market (compared to very little now )

One thing I have noticed about these  small cap bio's is they don't move much as it takes so long for clinical trials etc etc.

Anyway, it looks like if you got in at 28c...well you picked a bottom pretty well imo and probably wont go too far wrong.

Bit of the usual retracement today after hitting some nice highs today and yesterday. Its a bit of a familiar pattern with Avexa.


----------



## subaru69 (23 July 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Go Nuke said:


> Anyway, it looks like if you got in at 28c...well you picked a bottom pretty well imo and probably wont go too far wrong.




Oops, didn't mean to give the opinion that I held either stock.  Would have sold AVX today though if I was.  Doesn't matter though it will go back down to ~0.3 mark again and when it does I will be buying. 

It went up purely on spec IMO (didn't see any announcements) and will drop for the same reason.

You could take 2 views: trade the swings (it is a high risk bio-tech stock) or hold and wait for takeover.  I hope to do both. 

Porsche here we come....but this took my fancy recently :knightrid


----------



## Big_Daz (23 July 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



subaru69 said:


> It went up purely on spec IMO (didn't see any announcements) and will drop for the same reason.





One thing that might have seen a bit of a spike in the price may have been the result of the latest Smart Investor magazine coming out and having AVX featured in one of their articles (along with a number of other small caps) titled "Nuts about speculative stock". The crust of it was that there are heaps of cheap small caps at bottom prices.

Just a thought...might not be correlated to the gains earlier in the week but with no announcements and the magazine going on sale on the 18th (last Friday) could have been the result of some hype. 

Hope this helps.


----------



## Go Nuke (4 August 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Just thought I'd post a snippet from the Fin Review dated 30th July..


*VEXING TIME FOR AVEXA*

_Melbourne based Bio tech Avexa has reported an operating loss of $29.3 Mil for the year to June 30th.
the company which is completing the first of two final stage trials of its HIV treatment apricitabine has $43.4 Mil in cash left._

Event hough I'm sure we could work that out from the latest ann, it looks like AVX only has approx 12months of cash left at hand.

So can we guess that a partnership may be approching ..or further capital raising?


----------



## Wilsta (4 August 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Really hope so!  I'm getting worried about the global economic picture ... but still think AVX is poised to be a star...


----------



## gilbo (7 August 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Go Nuke said:


> Just thought I'd post a snippet from the Fin Review dated 30th July..
> 
> 
> *VEXING TIME FOR AVEXA*
> ...




Avexa never did have the cash for stage III trials so either a capital raising, a takeover, or a partnership was always on the cards. Their appointment of new non-executive director Nathan Drona - an investment banker with M&A experience - may give a few pointers as to which way the company is thinking of going.


----------



## Wilsta (24 August 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hopefully its almost time for this puppy to take off - I've been very patient.  Anyone heard anything of late?


----------



## AnDy62 (24 August 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Nope .. not yet, might still be months and months IMHO.  It's a definite 'hold' or accumulate if you are game.


----------



## Go Nuke (24 August 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Totally agree guys.
If I had the money, Id be accumulating at these levels.

Anything under 30c would be a steal.

BUT..mind you. Ive lost alot of confidence in those sorts of comments now that Ive seen my beloved Bannerman trading under $1!

Never thought I would see that happen.

But AVX a buy yes Especially if we see those MA's cross up over the 200 day!!


----------



## Wilsta (26 August 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

LOL i've accumulated waaaay too much (bought into it about 7 times over the past 6 months) ... AVX is about 40% of my portfolio ... not good for diversification ... but I've got faith in these guys ... I made some coin on them before their last shoot to $1.  I'm more worried that the general state of the global economy might mess this up!


----------



## andrewt (11 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hi all, been holding AVX for 12 months the news keeps improving but the price keeps going down.  Are we all still as confident as we were.


----------



## Wilsta (11 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes for Avexa ... no on the economy!  Looking at the market depth, Avexa (and everywhere else) as dried up .. hopefully just temporarily.


----------



## Go Nuke (11 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yeah AVX got SMASHED today!!

Bit of a shame because I think its a great company with heaps of potential.

I thought it was cheap before!!...If I weren't broke I'd think about buying more!

This Bio is a long term hold imo. Because the trials take so long.

DYOR


----------



## Big_Daz (11 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Definately a long term play...Everything looks to be progressing (all be it slowly)...I have held off from buying untill I start to see some buyers come back into this company but the possible upside is very enticing.

Does anyone know when the next round of trials is due to be released?


----------



## Pimping (15 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Has anybody got any info on the current sp decline? I believe a major older is selling out...is it going to recover? When are we expecting news???


----------



## Go Nuke (15 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

No idea off the top of my head mate...I couldn't find anything on the companies website about what results are forthcoming in the 4th quater....but what a disaster the share price is looking!

If they coming looking for more money from me when/if they do capital raising, I'll happily point out how much money Ive already lost with AVX.

I mean the fundamentals are great for this company imo its probably just the current market.
Good time for someone to make some money in the future, unfortunately we have done it **** about


----------



## jonnycage (22 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

i picked up another 5000 at 20 cents today, couldnt resist.

hopefully something will happen,  if not, oh well.

jonny


----------



## hsv2001 (22 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

hey guys,

i'm new to this stock, I think it looks quite attractive at 20c, I was reading that there is the potential to make upward to approx 400m in sales (as compared to a similar drug) (Ref eTrade.com.au). How long until potential profit would seem likely? I know phase 3 is in progress but don't know what the timeframes are like and whether there are any more phases to follow?

Thanks
Marc


----------



## Goldmann (22 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

this one has always been a long term play... was being tipped at $1 even 6 months ago by a range of brokers including ABN AMROS.

recent price decline would be due to current market state.. also - apparently (and i cant remember the whole story) the US regulators made them do twice as much testing for phase III ATC than the other drugs that have been passed previously... so double the amount of tests, means double the cost - hence people getting nervous... 

I wouldnt put a nother share raising to be out of the question here, but again - alot of people that own AVX already own a lot - due to that upside... 

.20 is a really cheap price compared to what it has been trading at in the past two or so years... teh very first capital raising i got in at was .20 (when the stock was trading at .28)...

Upside potential is great - just have to be prepared to park your money in it for a while... otherwise try and guess when to come back in...


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (22 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Goldmann said:


> (1-)this one has always been a long term play... was being tipped at $1 even 6 months ago by a range of brokers including ABN AMROS.
> 
> 
> (2)-Upside potential is great - just have to be prepared to park your money in it for a while... otherwise try and guess when to come back in...




(1)I personally do not rate anything that ABN Ambro says ,all I do know is that they wish everybody to buy everything. Apologises for the sarcasm,but don't quote ABN plse pretty plse.


(2)Like any bio-share the risks are greater then certain other stocks, but then again if you intend to speculate on dramtic rises ,then it's just a question of timing. I remember reading Huntleys' see this as a specualtive stock with a veiw of a potential takeover in the region of $1.10~$1.30????? ,and the CEO of AVX rewarding his shareholders with a rights issue as the share hit the 90 cents......perhaps he should reward us for carrying the load at 20 cents also! ok I'm out of here!


----------



## FGB (24 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Think they are unlikely to have phase three trials complete by yr end. Got in a 0.30 and would like to be able to talk them up but....


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (24 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well I think I saw this Bio-hit , 17 cents today .Could I beleive my own notion that this share is driven down by what is happening to other shares in the market, ie AVX has nothing to report till phase III is completed which is light years(months) away. I'm abit suprised AVX PR dept are tight lipped,and short selling is not the problem ! 
Any hints ,any ideas as to why this share is sliding? I must admit I am tempted to average my portfolio in AVX if its touches 15 cents.Hmmmmmmmmm concerned I think so!


----------



## subaru69 (24 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



subaru69 said:


> Oops, didn't mean to give the opinion that I held either stock.  Would have sold AVX today though if I was.  Doesn't matter though it will go back down to ~0.3 mark again and when it does I will be buying.




Well that was a few months ago... can't say I thought it would halve from where it was.  Given the fact that it is unlikely there'll be any news in the next month or 2, I can't see a good reason to jump in now given the low probability of the wider market sustaining a meaningful rally.

This now is becoming a 10c stock purely on the basis that noone (by noone I mean the inexperienced players which seem to be panicing at the moment) is going to put $$$ on spec's.  To be fair I'll have to do some research and see if there is any fundamental reason for the drop, who knows maybe the drug is useless.

When things are more settled, as $$$ are flowing into the ASX50 companies, this could do nicely.  That is, with the assumption trials are passed.

NB- not holding any bio-techs currently


----------



## blinkau (24 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Isn't the share slide to do with the fact that AVX doesn't have funding to get through Phase 3 trials and has still been unable to find a partner for what is suppose to be a very impressive drug. This was due to the fact that all the majors have their own HIV departments which may differ greatly.

I believe this weakening bargaining position is leading to the stock falling and will continue to do so unless AVX receives a deal. 

I bough in at 55c and again in the rights issue. I clearly overpaid for 'hopes and dreams' rather then looking at the fundamentals. You see broker research giving high price targets on future earnings which not only dont exist but are near impossible to forecast. Then when there is a risk or delay along the way they change their targets. 

This is not to say the drug won't come off and the price wont recover. Its the fact that we all previously paid simply too much for the company. The price is at least more reasonable now then what it was.


----------



## Hatchy (25 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I bought at 60 sold out at 30 and may buy back in if it keeps going south. I think that there's a good chance that a big pharma will buy this up - but how exactly will these guys do anything different? 
That's got to be the key to value in this sector - there's plenty of HIV drugs out there - some do as good a job as what i've seen from the trials so far. 

The notion that they've renegotiated with Shire over licencing is a bit worrying - why wouldn't Shire - who are massive - just develop the drug themselves? Had I known the licence was with Shire - I wouldn't have bought in the first place. If they're hoping another big pharma will come to the rescue - they'd have to look to shire and their 11% holding.

DYOR


----------



## Goldmann (25 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Hatchy said:


> I bought at 60 sold out at 30 and may buy back in if it keeps going south. I think that there's a good chance that a big pharma will buy this up - but how exactly will these guys do anything different?
> That's got to be the key to value in this sector - there's plenty of HIV drugs out there - some do as good a job as what i've seen from the trials so far.
> 
> The notion that they've renegotiated with Shire over licencing is a bit worrying - why wouldn't Shire - who are massive - just develop the drug themselves? Had I known the licence was with Shire - I wouldn't have bought in the first place. If they're hoping another big pharma will come to the rescue - they'd have to look to shire and their 11% holding.
> ...




My average is .32 after originally getting in at .26, and getting the placements at .20 and .55...

jeez this is hurting... could of sold round a dollar, but at this stage everything with the world was peachy and the bull market was going strong... the extra trials imposed on ATC really make you wonder if the world wants to deal with the HIV epidemic.  Or if US regulators have shares in companys with existign market share.... 

I will continue to believe in this one... i have too... its a long term hold, but it always has been... i was just happier when the price was around my average, as my portfolio is heavily geared towards this one... 

and as for the broker recs... i saw many that had this one hitting $1 and sustaining it...


----------



## Wilsta (25 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hey guys - saw this on E*Trade, I didnt know that Avexa was caught up in the Opes Capital issue ... hmmm.

Business Impact: The prime driver of the weakness is the severe bear market in non-resource stocks and heightened risk aversion. AVX stock caught up in the Opes Capital debacle that lenders to Opes are selling with little regard to price, is another. The volume of stock involved is unclear, as is whether the selling is complete. The expectation of potential dilution of current shareholders by another equity issue to complete funding of AVX’s lead drug candidate apricitabine (ATC’s) Phase III trial and to fund the company’s earlier stage development programs is another negative – and is magnified by the falling share price. We expect a major pharmaceutical partner to meet the $30m or so funding deficiency. This may not occur via an equity issue but then the licensing deal would reflect the assistance. According to AVX the new director ‘is an experienced international investment banker in the life sciences industry and has successfully advised numerous companies in the US, Europe, and Australia in mergers and acquisitions strategy. Most recently, he was a managing director for Challiss, an independent M&A advisory firm based in New York.’


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (26 September 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



blinkau said:


> Its the fact that we all previously paid simply too much for the company. The price is at least more reasonable now then what it was.




On reading your post ,its put a lot of things into perspective.Of course we paid too much for the share as the ASX was spaced out with CREDIT..... I just wonder if AVX is struggling to find any partner ,because as we  all know bio's are riskier then Barry Stearns, Meryl Lynch, or Meagre Stanley.


----------



## Wilsta (1 October 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I think its share price has fallen over concerns that it might struggle to secure more funds ... but lets face it, it was never a bank loan that this company was going to get.  This may make larger bio-tech's think twice where they put their cash however.  But once the annoucement comes .. I'm sure Avexa will soar (provided the right annoucement on funds).  It's not the drugs prospect in question here, but the funding.  If you buy AVX now then you're really betting that the funding will come.


----------



## Wilsta (27 October 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hey guys, check this link out:

http://business.theage.com.au/business/pfizer-deals-into-local-drug-research-20081026-591q.html

Do you think Avexa could be on the receiving end of Pfizer's funds???

"...holding meetings with several Australian biotechnology companies this week with a view to including them among the six to eight investment deals she hopes to strike each year."


----------



## Goldmann (27 October 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Wilsta said:


> Hey guys, check this link out:
> 
> http://business.theage.com.au/business/pfizer-deals-into-local-drug-research-20081026-591q.html
> 
> ...




who knows about the Funding... but AVEXA are on the list of registered attendees... would be interesting to know what their involvement is at the conference...surely a good opportunity as any to find a partner with some cash...


----------



## Phantom66 (8 November 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Every one knows the product show great potential, just have to ride out the global panic. This has seen this share fall unecessarily where we know its good value and will eventually do well, i'm out of everything except this one and will cash up again on thursday with another few thousand


----------



## gilbo (22 November 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Phantom66 said:


> Every one knows the product show great potential, just have to ride out the global panic. This has seen this share fall unecessarily where we know its good value and will eventually do well, i'm out of everything except this one and will cash up again on thursday with another few thousand




I agree Phantom. Ignoring the share price movement for the time being, the company looks to be doing the right things - looks to have made a good non-executive director appointment in the US (an M&A specialist in their key potential market) and the trials also seem to be making good progress - still producing encouraging results. Don't forget that this is a brand new drug so things do take time.

I also seem to remember reading some time ago that the timeline for the Phase III trials was shortened for AVX - but the _quid pro quo_ was a doubling of the actual required amount of testing, hence the increase in cost for the trials (could be wrong on this though).

I'd be concerned if the share price fall was due to changing fundamentals but IMO just down to general panic around at the moment.

I'm off to the AGM on Tuesday so I'll report anything interesting.


----------



## gilbo (25 November 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Upbeat AGM. Board still confident of how the trial is progressing. Key points;
+ At projected cash burn rates AVX will have $9m cash by 30.6.09
+ Cash burn rate reduced as Phase III trial recruitment has been completed
+ There is no intention at the moment to raise capital
+ Currently discussing partnership deals with a number of interested parties - although confidentiality agreements preclude any details
+ Chairman is "excited" with these discussions
+ Phase III 16-week data due 2Q2009 - a key inflexion point for share value

As far as partnership deals concerned the chairman stressed that the "best" deal will be negotiated rather than the "first" and he seemed pretty happy with where discussions were with the interested parties. He is an experienced M&A operator in the bio-sciences sector so his view carries some weight (with me anyway!)

I came away confident that the board know what they're doing and I'm pretty happy with holding AVX shares at the present moment. It certainly seems that some exciting times are ahead - hope they're good times as well!

(usual disclaimers re not financial advice and do your own research apply)


----------



## Purple XS2 (25 November 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



gilbo said:


> Upbeat AGM. Board still confident of how the trial is progressing.
> .......
> + Chairman is "excited" with these discussions
> .......
> ...




Thanks for that report, Gilbo. I would very much have liked to have attended myself, but work commitments precluded.

My impression of Avexa's mangement is that they are not a crowd who pumps up their prospects for the sake of cheering up their shareholders (much to the chagrin of the day-trader collective). Wishful thinking perhaps, but I think the company is relaxed and comfortable with the notion that the clinical results will do the talking in the fullness of time.

I hold, with restrained optimism.   I figure that there are worse reasons to lose money than to back AIDs R & D.

Rgrds, P.


----------



## Goldmann (27 November 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> I figure that there are worse reasons to lose money than to back AIDs R & D.




haha my thoughts exactly mate... Better donating this money to "Charity" then lining the Macquarie execs pockets for their poor performance!

my thanks also Gilbo for keeping us in the loop... i still hold, and will go down with the ship if i have to...

A 30mil shortfall certainily isnt a huge risk for some big pharma company!


----------



## justiceotp (8 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Been a little bit quiet here whats the thoughts on this one now? At the price its at now seems worth a small punt. But wondering is anyone has heard anything new


----------



## Go Nuke (18 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

wow Avexa is under some real selling pressure

Went below 10c today....not a  good sign. Although it didnt close under 10c.

10c has been acting as some really good support...but how much more selling can it hold off?

At least the RSI is going in the right direction but volume falling with alot of sellers....doesn't look good.


----------



## mitch87 (18 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

while dissapointed this stock has slumped so much, it coincides with the entire market so it is understandable.  i believe next year when the market begins its recovery and avexa edges closer to the all important phase 111 results, avx will be a quality buy but until then, im a bit worried as to how far they may continue to fall.hopefully around 10c is the absolute bottom


----------



## Wilsta (22 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Is anyone else deeply disappointed with the merger announcement?  I feel a little cheated actually … Progen doesn’t have anything to bring to the table except money (in my view).  Why is the conversion at $1.35 Progen shares when they are trading under 90c!!!!!


----------



## Big_Daz (22 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Wilsta said:


> Is anyone else deeply disappointed with the merger announcement?  I feel a little cheated actually … Progen doesn’t have anything to bring to the table except money (in my view).  Why is the conversion at $1.35 Progen shares when they are trading under 90c!!!!!




It says in one of the announcements that this is due to the assumption that they willl go ahead with the $20m buy-back of shares. 

Market's reaction wasn't the greatest...what does this mean for the M & A expert they elected onto the board as a specialist in the US??? Did he think it would be better to merge with an Oz co. ahead of US???


----------



## mitch87 (22 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

gee, well the market hasnt liked this proposal im not sure if i do either.  it seems the only thing progen have to offer is their cash like you said wilsta.  

so if this goes ahead like planned and say the share buy back is fully utilised by progen shareholders, we have a combined entity with about 65-75m shares on issue. (progens current 48m less share buy back of 18m=30m)(plus 450m avx shares /12.857 = 35m)

and considering the combined entity will have cash reserves of about 60m, does this mean we are getting avx phase 111 ATC drug for free?? which seems quite absurd.although it is unclear as to the amount of revenue ATC could potentially generate if any?? some analysts have placed 400m on it. which suggests avx is highly undervalued?? using a 10% discount rate i came up with a price of $4 for the combined entity,which equates to about 55c for AVX if the merger never occured.These obviously long term targets(2012+).  

i would like to see if anyone else has come up with their own value of avexa.


----------



## Phantom66 (22 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I'm not buying it either, the Progen merger even though it is supported by the board offers very little for AVX holders, they won't be getting any more money from me.

Valuing Progen at $1.35 is optimistic given its recent performance and AVx are worth more than the 7.5 cents they think they are, jusr radining whilst the market is down knowing Avexa needs just a bit more cash to get a world class profitable product across the line.


----------



## Go Nuke (22 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well i haven't really read the announcement and Ive never heard of Progen before.
But considering I bought in at $1 ive seen little in it for me as an investor....and if I have to cough up any more money...well they are dreaming!

At 8c Ive lost nearly all Ive put in....so i dont really care what happens anymore.


----------



## justiceotp (23 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well I am holding shares in both AVX and PGL and both took a dive today. You would expect someone would have to benefit out of the merger but the market doesn't appear to think so judging from the drop in share price of both companies today.


----------



## yawomanjas (23 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I think this article summs it up...

Progen to buy Avexa at discount
22/12/2008 7:26:01 PM
Drug maker Progen Pharmaceuticals Ltd's discounted offer to buy Avexa Ltd, which is in the last stages of trialling a potentially lucrative HIV treatment drug, has received a frosty reception from investors.

Shares in Progen fell 15.56 per cent and Avexa stock slumped 24.76 per cent to a record low on Monday after the companies announced the deal, which values Avexa at two third market value as of last Friday.

According to the companies, the friendly merger agreement will allow Avexa to access much needed cash to continue its phase III trial of apricitabine (ATC).

ATC is one of two HIV drugs Avexa is developing that are in the final testing phase before a treatment can be submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration.

Wilson HTM analyst Graham Wald said the merger deal - which has been unanimously recommended by both boards - was in effect a capital raising by Avexa to raise the money needed for the trials.

"We don't like it at all," Dr Wald said.

"The deal entrenches a low valuation and destroys shareholder value.

"We've changed our recommendation today and put out a sell because it's a huge dilution for Avexa shareholders."

Progen stock fell 14 cents to close at 76 cents on Monday and Avexa shares slumped 2.6 cents to 7.9 cents.

Progen is offering Avexa shareholders one Progen share per 12.857 Avexa shares. That values Avexa shares at seven cents, or 33 per cent below Friday's closing price of 10.5 cents.

At Monday's level, it values Avexa at 5.91 cents each, or 25 per cent below its closing price on Monday.

Avexa chief executive Julian Chick, who will also lead the merged company if the deal goes ahead, said selling the company to Progen was a better way of gaining access to cash for the ongoing trials of HIV drug apricitabine (ATC), as accessing debt or equity markets is too costly in the current environment.

"The slight discount to the share price is very attractive relative to what would happen if we needed to raise the capital," Dr Chick said in during a teleconference.

"Without this merger Avexa needs to continue considering its options going forward, which may include looking at a capital raising."

But the deal values Progen at 34 per cent more than its closing price on Monday and Progen will also return $20 million in cash to its shareholders through buyback at $1.10 a share, cutting the amount of money Avexa will actually gain through the deal.

Dr Wald also said the deal didn't provide all the cash Avexa needs to complete a second phase III trial of ATC, nor did it provide a way to get the drug ready for sale.

The companies said in a statement there will be enough money to get the first phase III trial to its week 24 milestone, where they may be able to file an application with the FDA.

"Avexa needed the right kind of capital, and the right kind of capital would have been through a deal with a big pharmaceutical company, whether it be a collaborative deal or for them to be acquired," Dr Wald said.

A big drug company would "be hard pressed to do it now because its not a clean asset. It's got all the Progen stuff in it now."

Progen focuses on small molecule pharmaceuticals for the treatment of cancer.

Wilson HTM's Mr Ward on Monday cut his 12 month target share price for Avexa to 10 cents from 20 cents.

If approved, the merged entity will be 56 per cent owned by Progen shareholders and 44 per cent by Avexa shareholders, assuming the buyback is fully subscribed.

It will be named Avexa Pharmaceuticals Ltd and headquartered in Melbourne, with offices in Brisbane, San Francisco in the US.

Progen chief executive Justus Homburg will join the new board, to be chaired by Nathan Drona, currently an Avexa director.

The deal also includes a commitment by both companies not to solicit alternative deals, or incur a break fee of $500,000.

Progen shareholders are expected to meet in late February to approve the buyback, merger and name change. Avexa shareholders will meet in March.


----------



## gilbo (23 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Listening to the presentation conference call it was clear that the Avexa board believes that this merger is in the best interests of shareholders and has not been just a cash grab.

There is no doubt that this gives Avexa much needed cash (Progen has been courted by a number of firms looking to get their hands on their cash) and this method of raising capital is the most cost-effective way in the current climate. However, Avexa did stress that, in addition to cash, this gave the merged entity product synergies that they believe is greater than the sum of its parts.

In relation to the comments made by Graham Wald from Wilson HTM, this certainly is a capital raising (not denied by Avexa) and any capital raising will result in a dilution to shareholders. In addition, the Avexa chair Nathan Drona refuted his suggestion that this makes it more difficult for a large pharmaceutical firm to eventually acquire Avexa (the merged entity) - in fact he mentioned that they are still in talks with various pharmaceutical companies and that they do not appear to have been put off by this proposal.

Of course, this plan of action does give Avexa time and at the moment time is probably Avexa's friend with respect to on-going negotiations with large pharmaceuticals. 16-week Phase III data due out in 2Q2009 is the next key date for ATC and this is expected to be a share value inflexion point. To be able to demonstrate that Avexa can get there on its own (at least in this merged entity) will no doubt alleviate the need for Avexa to make any rushed agreements for a potentially lower price than may be achieved.


----------



## Wilsta (23 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I'm starting to think this this is all just empire building by Avexa Management at our expense ... since they will be incharge of the new combined entity ... 

Even in this economic climate ... this is expensive cash.  Why the hell are we doing the conversion on an implied value of $1.35 for Progen shares?  Also why the hell are Progen doing a share buyback when capital is "so hard" to come by???  To me it shows that their pipeline drugs are worth nothing since the best thing they can do with the money is give it back!  

Vote "NO" to this merger when we get a chance ... if in fact you are still a holder.


----------



## Purple XS2 (23 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Wilsta said:


> ...
> 
> Vote "NO" to this merger when we get a chance ... if in fact you are still a holder...




Well, the interesting feature is the time-lag. Avexa holders get to vote on this in March 2009.

If there's nothing else on the table by then, we really will be beggars not choosers. The merger contract discourages but does not prohibit the emergence of an alternative (a 1/2 million penalty applies).

I allow myself the conclusion that Avexa has signed this deal with a view to giving themselves a bit of wriggle-room. If OTOH, this is the best that the outside world comes up with, so be it. The name of the game is quite simply to survive, and at least this deal keeps the ATC project alive till 2nd half 2009.

As for me, I'm hanging in there till the party's over.
Rgrds, P.


----------



## Goldmann (23 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> Well, the interesting feature is the time-lag. Avexa holders get to vote on this in March 2009.
> 
> If there's nothing else on the table by then, we really will be beggars not choosers. The merger contract discourages but does not prohibit the emergence of an alternative (a 1/2 million penalty applies).
> 
> ...




Purple - my thoughts exactly... this is essential AVX management paying for a get out of jail free card in case they cant sort anything better by then... If anyone has had their eye on AVX, and were thinking of buying it - this will provide them the catalyst... 

by the time the vote occurs, AVX (at current cash burn rates) will have under 10mil in cash... a straight out capital raising is impossible i think, given that many holders participated in the .55c one not that long ago - they wont come to the party again in this environment...

sadly i thought a takeover at would bring me my out time... but it looks like i will have to ride this one to merger - or to the grave... and saying no means you are risking everything for the prospect of a better offer (when they only have one quarter time wise left before the cash runs out). If you were a top scientist with AVX and you knew they were closing in on D-day - then you would bail.. hence this announcement gives AVX employees and holders - so breathing space with a contingency plan. 

my opinion only of course...

merry xmas to all AVX holders - been a tough year!


----------



## Wilsta (23 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I'd prefer Avexa management to outright say it then .. that they need money, that this is for the money.  I don't want this sweet talk about synergies, being a significant pharma and the drugs Progen has to offer when its clearly about the money and the money only.  If Progen is giving money back to shareholders they clearly dont have any growth opportunities.  We are merging with a dead dog that has a gold collar.  I take your points onboard .. they are good ones.  I still am very cold toward this proposal and something just doesnt feel right.  

I'd warm to it much more if the implied Avexa price was on par with where it was at 10.5c.  Why did they sell us short???


----------



## Phantom66 (30 December 2008)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Sold out to buy PGL at $.70 and will sell for $1.10 as part of the buyback.
Gains me some more back anyway and will then buy AVX which will still be at .08 if the figures add up.
PGL trading at .78 so made my 10% already

Phantom


----------



## Big_Daz (6 January 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Phantom66 said:


> Sold out to buy PGL at $.70 and will sell for $1.10 as part of the buyback.
> Gains me some more back anyway and will then buy AVX which will still be at .08 if the figures add up.
> PGL trading at .78 so made my 10% already
> 
> Phantom




Does anyone know the cut off date for when the buy-back will apply?

I.e: If we buy now will we still be able to get the offer of buy-back?


----------



## Big_Daz (9 January 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Big_Daz said:


> Does anyone know the cut off date for when the buy-back will apply?
> 
> I.e: If we buy now will we still be able to get the offer of buy-back?




The Progen shareholder group who was trying to reject the proposed merger were unsuccessful. I would have thought AVX shareholders would have been more dissapointed.

Nevertheless, can anyone help me out with the buy back cut-off date?


----------



## Goldmann (12 January 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Big_Daz said:


> The Progen shareholder group who was trying to reject the proposed merger were unsuccessful. I would have thought AVX shareholders would have been more dissapointed.
> 
> Nevertheless, can anyone help me out with the buy back cut-off date?




The cut off date is in the presentations... 

As for being disapointed, as i said earlier - i think the Progen deal gives AVX an escape clause, a plan if nothing else is reached, a contingency...  

with one quarter left of cash, things would of gone pearshaped for AVX sooner rather than later if no white knight came along... 

I for one am still content to hold AVX til 2010 as originally planned... this just guarentees now that AVX will get to 2010... had no credit crisis eventuated - things would be very different - but no point trying to whinge about what has already happened...   AVX and other small caps are a risk,.. id be more annoyed if i had cash tied up in OZ minerals or ABC or some thing witha  supposed less risky profile... 

Progren seem like they have nothing.. except cash.. so AVX will take that cash and give Progen holders something to hold for... Progen were coming to the table with the cash, yet their board representation is very low, and they got neither or chairman or CEO.. what does that tell you??? take the 1.35 a share and dont let the door smack your butt on the way out... 

AVX now have what they need to get to the end game...


----------



## Go Nuke (12 January 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I read this is Saturdays paper.

Goes to show some people are unhappy about all this.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24893132-3122,00.html


----------



## Goldmann (14 January 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

AVX up 29% at present and as high as .12 for the day???   Bizarre!

Cant see it being related to the FP report issued last night which had it as a hold...   but did have a positive sentiment in my opinion...


----------



## Poppypop (14 January 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes, very happy day indeed. I have been buying and selling this stock for a $10,000 profit since it was .13c. I found out about this stock through a friends, friend at work who had lost a lot of money on it. Now I own 700,000 shares with an average price of .9c. So todays massive price rise is certainly welcome, but I have no plans of selling this stock just yet. I can see it hovering between the $1 to $4 mark within the next 3 years (unless a HIV cure is found by another company of course). 


I have only been trading on the sharemarket since Octobler 08, so I'm sorry if you think i come across as a complete noob, but I am excited indeed as my portfolio currently sits at 25% in the black after 3 months, which is a hell of a lot better than the 5 % at the banks per annum.


----------



## Go Nuke (17 January 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

well at least you are getting in at a good time.

Had you of bought in a few months before the end of the bull market, you would be saying the same thing...but would you have sold...or lived in hope that share prices would turn around anyday now?

I waited as all I knew that it was too easy to make money during a bull market...but gee you can lose it just as easy when the tide turns the other way.

As Ive been holding from $1, then buying more witht he rights issue at 53c, I hope your right and we all see $1,$2,$3 ++


----------



## jonnycage (16 February 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

anyone buyings these in the dips of 6.5cents to 7.5 cents ?

hoping for a spike that lasts ones of these days !


----------



## Goldmann (16 February 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

sold half of my AVX to buy same amount in PGL (as insurance against the PGL holders not backing the merger!)... without the merger - AVX is dead in the water...

i still believe in AVX and ATC... so fingers crossed the merge goes through to give AVX access to the cash they need to get this one across the line commercially!


----------



## jonnycage (16 February 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

i dont reckon avx is dead in the water without pgl.  would be very surprised
if the merger doesnt take place.  very happy to hang on to avx as they are


----------



## jonnycage (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

and now its trading halt time for avx and pgl,  thoughts team ? 
hoping for some joy.  though these days who can tell

jonny


----------



## Goldmann (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

its related to the federal court process that the knobholders of CYT have requested in attempt to scuttle the merger... 

hopefully they will crawl back under the rock from which they came...


----------



## jonnycage (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

ahhh thats good then, i thought that might be the case,  
what a pain cyt are.   cant a man just make a little coin ?  lol
jonny


----------



## Goldmann (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

well well well... AVX PGL merger scuttled.  initial proxy votes to the merger from PGL side was a resounding 84% against. apparently CYT trouble makers only got 15% of the vote.

sure am glad i hedged by AVX holding now (sold half on announcement and bought PGL instead (at .85).  Hope to get out of it at the buy back price now.


----------



## Purple XS2 (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Goldmann said:


> well well well... AVX PGL merger scuttled......



Hmmmm, very interesting, as that character from Rowan & Martin's "Laugh-in" would say.



> sure am glad i hedged by(sic - meant "my"?) AVX holding now (sold half on announcement and bought PGL instead (at .85).  Hope to get out of it at the buy back price now.




Yes Mr. G. That was what the smart money in AVX would have done. I've had similar thoughts, but decided to hang on grimly to the end. Put me in the dumb-money column.

Curiously, AVX shares didn't immediately tank on the news, down to 0.069 from 0.073. Under the circumstances, that passes for good news (so far).

Still holding. Looking forward to the Fat Lady to do her thing. A Capital Raising song on tonight's repertoire, methinks.


----------



## jonnycage (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

im firmly in that what tha holding column to!   riding this little baby
to the end.  whenever that may be : )

jonny


----------



## Goldmann (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

yeah still kept half my AVX though.. so by no means a genius. the smart money got out of AVX at .60+. I find hard to let go of this one that was going to make me rich!  amazing lesson in greed - buying in at avg .20 and not selling when it hit $1 in intra day trade a few Aprils ago! oh well... 

first stock i owned, so i feel i owe it to the management to go down with the ship (if it is indeed the end!)

a few more chances left, as i see it:

- 96 week Phase II b study results to be released within a week! We need this to give some real value inflection - but not sure who would buy even on great news!

- AVX had a cash balance of 20million at end of 2008. Cash burn rates were about 3.3 million a month give or take a few bucks.

- Initial Phase III results due Q2 09... 

*Q: do they have enough cash to hit this milestone - then the arrogance to go to the market one more time to ask for more dollars? *

Is their a white night around the corner with a cure to our fatal problem, or will they just wait for AVX to die then pick the carcass of ATC like a vulture in the aids ridden countries of central africa!

Suprised teh merger didnt go through, but if you look at the PGL charts - their holders appear to have lost all faith in managment (and you cant blame them not opting for a risky merge Vs direct capital return through a share buy back!)

AVX on life support my friends!


----------



## Go Nuke (9 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Ah goldmann at least you weren't like me and bought at $1

Guess I can thank my lucky stars I only bought 1000 shares. But I cant even sell them online with Commsec because its a minimum $500 trade..lol.

I think if it weren't for the global meltdown AVX would have outperformed!

I'm in till the end also.


----------



## jonnycage (16 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

week 96 results in people and looking good : )
AVX closes at 10.5 cents, higher then when the Pgl merger was on,
where to now you think ?

JC


----------



## psychic (19 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Seems to have retraced over the past couple of days, I am back in at 9.7 cents, happy with my entry point into a potential global HIV drug, a company maker.


----------



## jonnycage (19 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

sold out of a good chunk between the 11 and 12 cent mark.  kept half
and will see where the next wave takes us, if anywhere lol

jc


----------



## bumclouds (30 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I'm thinking about buying this stock right now.

Price is at 0.088.  What do you guys think?


----------



## Purple XS2 (30 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



bumclouds said:


> I'm thinking about buying this stock right now.
> 
> Price is at 0.088.  What do you guys think?




0.088 Seems like a decent entry. Keep your eye on the tradable rights AVXR, currently 0.02, with the fixed right-of-purchase of 0.07.

In other words don't pay more than AVXR + 0.07. Also consider than as the holder of _any_ rights, you're able to ask for more than face-value quantum, which you _may_ get if not all rights are taken up.

So at current prices as an example, if Mr. Market buys 1,000 AVX at 0.088, 4,000 AVXR at 0.02. Come rights D-day, he asks for his 4,000 at 0.07, and in addition applies for another 5,000 (attainable if available) also at 0.07. He might end up with 10,000 AVX, with the end result of 10,000 AVX for $798.00 outlay: average  0.0798.

The last rights issue was a couple of years ago in much sunnier times than now. Holding some 5,000 rights, I asked for and was issued 10,000 new shares.

I plan to ask for double quantum again this time. The wrinkles in my tea-bag reassure me that I'll be issued what I ask for.

Mind you, those wrinkles have a lot to answer for: they used to say that AVX under 0.100 would only happen if Apricitabine(ATC) *failed*, and here we are sub 0.100 with ATC going very nicely. 

Reading wrinkles in tea bags is how it works, isn't it?


----------



## bumclouds (30 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Purple XS2 thanks for the info .

I'm a deadset beginner though, and the whole rights thing is something I know nothing about.  

Can you refer me to some site that I can read and learn about what these are and how they work?


----------



## Purple XS2 (31 March 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



bumclouds said:


> I'm a deadset beginner though, and the whole rights thing is something I know nothing about.
> 
> Can you refer me to some site that I can read and learn about what these are and how they work?




I suggest you give Avexa a ring and ask them for such description as answers your queries.

In brief, a 'right' is like an option, in this case AVXR is tradable meaning you can buy or sell AVXR rights on the open market. The main difference viz options is that rights are set at an attractive discount price relative the current share price to encourage substantial take-up, and rights therefore typically have a short life span. AVXR D-day is 27th April, meaning the registry must receive all offers to purchase by that date (in other words. allow 3 days for postage _after_ your AVXR rights appear in your stock holdings, which means that any aspiring rights purchaser would want to buy on market before April 20th. Only if you live within leg-it distance of the share registry - ComputerShare, Melbourne - would it make any sense in cutting it finer).

The advantage of buying rights (compared to buying AVX on market) is that you are only committed to the extent of the price you paid to get those rights, and you are under no obligation to complete the process of applying for share issue for the additional cost of 0.07 for AVX shares. In the event the AVX share price drops below 0.07 for example, you could abandon (or try to sell) the rights and just buy AVX on the open market.

On the other hand, if there is little or no difference between cost(AVXR) + cost(AVX), then the consequence of favouring the course of buying AVXR (on market) then a little later buying new shares from Avexa is that most of your purchase $ (0.07) goes directly to Avexa, and boy, do they need it.

The other feature favouring the rights road is as I mentioned in my previous post - you can try your luck at asking for extra new shares at 0.07.

I must stress that I'm a newbie at this with just a couple of years worth of scars. I repeat my suggestion that you contact Avexa, or otherwise seek qualified advice.


----------



## Purple XS2 (1 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Just to tidy up my previous post, AVXR rights trading in fact ceases on 20th April, so that's the last date one could buy AVXR, which leaves a week to get applications in to purchase new shares (must be received by share registry 27 April).


----------



## Go Nuke (3 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Im going to let mine lapse as it would cost me more in brokerage to sell them, than what I would recieve.


----------



## bumclouds (3 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I bought some at $0.090 they seem to just be sitting there at the moment.

Do you think they might start moving up again in the next couple of months?


----------



## Purple XS2 (3 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



bumclouds said:


> ....
> Do you think they might start moving up again in the next couple of months?




I wouldn't expect much movement until rights issue closes late April, at which point the extent of the take up will reveal the degree of enthusiasm amongst AVX holders.

After that we wait with baited breath for the 1st 16 week results of phase-III, due 2nd quarter 2009.

If those results are good (and they need to be: anything adverse or negative will really put a damper on the show) and if the overall market maintains its current boosterish mood, then Avexa might show some leg. 

Needless to say, this remains a high risk play.


----------



## bumclouds (8 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

noooooooo!!! 
these stocks seem to have taken a lil bit of a bum dive lately 
                                                                                                     .


----------



## jonnycage (15 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

is anyone taking up there 7cent options ? thoughts ?  im still undecided, but may well take another dip in the not sure ocean

jonny


----------



## Gurgler (25 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



jonnycage said:


> is anyone taking up there 7cent options ? thoughts ?  im still undecided, but may well take another dip in the not sure ocean
> 
> jonny





Yup took the plunge after a long think and took my full entitlement. Prospects of a rise in price within the next 3-6 months represents a reasonable risk - given Phase 3 results being released within that period. With my break-even now reduced from 35.6 to 26 cents by this splurge, I see I have little to lose long term given the projected value of ATC alone.

So, forever the optimist  and taking the long term view.


----------



## Big_Daz (26 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hey Guys

I am taking the plunge as well....this is more of a noobie question but I have made the payment via way of BPAY and have therefore paid for the issue.

Do I need to also send in the form down the bottom by Monday 27th or is the payment suffice.

I note that it says to return it BUT on the back it says by making payment by these means you accept the terms of the offer anyways.

Thanks in advance


----------



## justiceotp (26 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I also Bpayed mine it says on the back of the form if you bpay you accept and dont need to send in form.


----------



## Big_Daz (26 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



justiceotp said:


> I also Bpayed mine it says on the back of the form if you bpay you accept and dont need to send in form.




Thank for the reply. I see that now...trust me not to read the fine print below the fine print! haha


----------



## jonnycage (26 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

couldnt resist either, took up my full entitlement, plus a little more if they give it to me.

glad that there are a few of us then!

jonny


----------



## johannlo (29 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Anyone crunched the figures for the latest quarterly report?

From my newbie eyes, they have 12761000 cash and burned 7715000 in the last quarter = cash for one more quarter before more financing needed?

Is this a correct reading and is it a cause for concern? I know all these biotech / pharm development firms burn cash to produce the R&D so I'm not sure how to interpret such figures (as opposed say a 'conventional' firm where you can look at their income, expenditure and debt levels in a 'conventional' sense)


----------



## justiceotp (30 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

The rate of cash burn will vary as they are in testing stage and they also have just done a stock option so they will have some extra cash coming in from that.


----------



## Purple XS2 (30 April 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



justiceotp said:


> The rate of cash burn will vary as they are in testing stage and they also have just done a stock option so they will have some extra cash coming in from that.




AVXR rights issue oversubscribed, by about about 10% or so. Avexa will look to satisfy the extra applications with a modest placement of shares over and above those created by the full issue of shares arising from the original offer.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00949075

Much of the demand came from enthusiastic holders who applied for additional shares over and above their AVXR rights. Curiously, some 40% of AVXR rights were not exercised; odd because the rights were tradable in the open market, so a lot of holders neither traded nor exercised.

So the good news for Avexa is that whatever budget they had in mind for the next few months is now funded.

It wouldn't surprise me if there's another rights issue before the year is out. If no nice people in white hats come along with a partnership deal, and if shareholder support remains strong, why not?

Disclosure: I held and exercised AVXR, and applied for and will now presumably get great gobs of additional shares. 

In this one till the party's over.


----------



## jonnycage (4 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

another positive annoucement today which is welcome : )

when do our rights issued start trading ? this week i thought
jc


----------



## Gurgler (4 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> In this one till the party's over.




Wondered why this one was ascending of late (is that an accurate observation, chartists?):


Seems there has been some news brewing (out today):

*Avexa signs option agreement for HIV program*
Melbourne, Australia, 4th May 2009: 
*Biotechnology company Avexa Limited (‘Avexa’) (ASX:AVX) today announced that it has entered into a 6 month, worldwide exclusive option agreement with Tibotec Pharmaceuticals relating to its HIV integrase program. The option provides an exclusivity period for the two companies to formalize a collaborative research and license agreement while Tibotec continues to review the Avexa HIV-1 Integrase Inhibitor drug program portfolio.*


Let's hope the party's just beginning, eh, Purple?


----------



## Nathan74 (5 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Can anyone shed any light on why AVX's price plummeted today over 15% today? At one point it was about 20% down. Most of the recent news has been quite positive on this company.


----------



## Go Nuke (5 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

wow AVX did get smashed today.

Thats the biggest volume in over 2 years!

No idea why though.
Sell off of rights shares if they have started trading??


----------



## Nathan74 (5 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Thanks Go Nuke. I just checked a previous avx announcement and it looks like you're right. The new shares were supposed to be entered into the holders' security holdings today.


----------



## jonnycage (6 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

spot on guys,  got my new options yesterday, would say some people
sold them off straight up, but no point in that just yet!

jc


----------



## bumclouds (6 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Can anyone explain this latest news item to me?  I'm a newbie and I don't quite understand it.

"Avexa signs option agreement with Tibotec for HIV program"
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/2309654/


----------



## johannlo (6 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Also a newbie but I think what it means is that the two companies have agreed to have first dibs on any cooperative deals they like to sign

e.g. if AVX has a breakthrough on the agreed compound / subject and Tibotec wants to licence it they get the first bite of the cherry.

Its kinda like an agreement to enter into a contract


----------



## Go Nuke (22 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Clear breakout happening here.

Good stuff for those who took up the rights issue.

16c might be resistence


----------



## jonnycage (22 May 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

seems that way,  last couple days very positive trading : )  interesting to see
where the next platform begins

which is welcome!

jc


----------



## jonnycage (4 June 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

another run today on the back of more positive news at 16 weeks for ATC
trial phase III

15 cents and counting

jc


----------



## johannlo (4 June 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Not anymore lol. With today's commodities selloff I was hoping it'd get onto the radar more. Market depth is not looking too bullish either. Oh well


----------



## jonnycage (4 June 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

strong dept at 13.5 cents for the buy, maybe a good platform
for growth on top.   not the right day perhaps lol!!

j c


----------



## slimdusty96 (4 June 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Didn't think it would go down on positive news; anyway, should go up eventually in the long run when more results from the trial comes through


----------



## joeyjoejoe (4 June 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I got totally burned today day trading this one. bought 50k @ 15.5 sold out at 10.30 and i was lucky to get 0.14 ( i tried for 14.5 at that time no luck) very sour. $750 loss. quite bad considering i hadnt even had my morning coffee yet..


letalone the brokerage


----------



## johannlo (4 June 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yeah I've done that before (not 50k though lol more like 2k I'm a small timer). 

Resolved never to chase a biotech wave unless I've been following the stock all along, of course you may be super informed on AVX and got unlucky. But all the times I've been burnt I noticed the spike and had a punt without more than a cursory 5 minute scan through the figures, bad idea. 

Disclaimer: Holding a small parcel, medium termer (see which way the wind blows over next few major announcements).


----------



## joeyjoejoe (5 June 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I meant 50k shares ie. 50,000 though not $$

so i guess were not too far apart.

Well see what today brings


----------



## bumclouds (10 July 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

The share price has been stepping down slowly over the last few days.

I've re-entered this stock at 11.0c.  

What could explain this dip at this late stage?  Are shareholders getting impatient of waiting for news on trials?


----------



## JnrTrader (10 July 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

i think theres a bit of impatience here, ive been a long term holder and the impatience has worn out so its just been accepted a sit and wait job for as long as it takes. biotech companies take a long time and realistically, avexa are almost there, due to get things really rolling early in 2010 so they have come a long long way.also the general market pullback will have an impact and avx have actually held up well so buying in now is not a silly investment, unless we do go back and test them march lows, fingers crossed we dont.


----------



## bumclouds (15 July 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Now we're just getting a whole bunch of sideways movement with the bid/ask prices floating around 10.5c - 11.5c, even though there are decent volumes being traded each day.

The huge boost in the ASX200 over the last couple of days has done nothing to budge the sideways movement, which might suggest that investors are feeling a little  with the lack of news/announcements?


----------



## jonnycage (15 July 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

just need these trials to take there course,  i guess a lot of people 
have run out of patience with them.

hang in there!


----------



## kelvin (29 July 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Volume has been increasing steadily this week.  Price seems to be steady at 11.5-12c.  

ANyone else notice the trade just after 3pm for 3,000,000 shares @12c.  

Hoping for news to be released soon for the critical 24 week stage for ATC phase III.


----------



## Not Rene (31 July 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I have had these for a long time now, and they have caused much psychological fingernail biting. Should I feel very concerned that they have stated they only have enough money to last them for approx 12 months??


----------



## jonnycage (31 July 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

this is the time frame that brings them to the end of the atc trials,  if
this all goes as planned no need for concern, that was what the recent
capital raising was about.  like anything there is risk,  but perhaps
a good chance of reward

jc


----------



## Not Rene (3 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

How can you not trust someone with the initials JC ?!
I'm praying for a revival back to the halcyon days of $1.00 a share


----------



## jonnycage (3 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Not Rene said:


> How can you not trust someone with the initials JC ?!
> I'm praying for a revival back to the halcyon days of $1.00 a share





well we can only pray for that !!!!   time will tell us both

dont hold your breath in the short term though, going to take some time : )

jc


----------



## JnrTrader (3 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

have been holding avx since the glory days of early 07. its been a long and tough journey but i still believe in their story, however $1 seems a dream away from here.if they could even get to half that i would be happy


----------



## bumclouds (11 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Does anyone have idea when we can expect to hear about the ATC 24 week results?      

It's been about 2 months since the release of the 12 week results.. so could we expect the 24 week results in another couple of months?


----------



## kelvin (11 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Last report re Phase III trial was for the 16 week stage data, and the report was released to ASX on 04 June, 2009.

I felt same (ie should be some news) and thought another report re 24 week stage could be released imminently.

Sent email to Avexa yesterday requesting a timeframe for the next release to the ASX re Phase III (24 week data), but am yet to receive a reply.

Will post any info once received from Avexa.

Cheers!


----------



## jonnycage (13 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



kelvin said:


> Last report re Phase III trial was for the 16 week stage data, and the report was released to ASX on 04 June, 2009.
> 
> I felt same (ie should be some news) and thought another report re 24 week stage could be released imminently.
> 
> ...




Gday Kevin,

did you manage to get a reply from avexa on the release date ?  they are probably keeping in under there hat i guess

cheers

jc


----------



## kelvin (14 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Unfortunately, no reply yet......

Not sure if they are able to reply to such sensitive info, but it was worth a try.

Surely there must be some indication soon as to the progress of the phase III data.

It's been a few years waiting......what's a few more weeks/months.....


----------



## Not Rene (14 August 2009)

well, with any luck, they are only delaying announcing the data, because they want to buy up before the share price rises.... no, wait a minute, that doesn't sound legal.
i'm just terrified they are gonna run out of money and it will all be for nothing

I wish someone like CSL would look at taking over this company, surely it's not too far out of their area, and they said they were looking at buying something! maybe I should lobby them


----------



## bumclouds (14 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Running out of money would be a terrible shame for all those HIV sufferers who have resistance to pre existing classes of antivirals.  Surely the government would throw an extra few pennies at a company which has made so much progress already in such an important study?  

And if not the government - perhaps another company would see it as a lucrative investment opportunity. Either way, personally, I don't see the ATC project just stopping due to lack of funds.  Doesn't seem right.

And then there's always more capital raising, no?

Is anybody able to cite a microcap biotech like this one stopping midway through its phase III trials due to lack of funding?


----------



## Not Rene (15 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Thank you Bumclouds for your voice of rationality and common sense.
My faith is renewed again. Onwards and upwards!


----------



## kelvin (17 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Got my return phone call today from Avexa from Dr Chick CEO of Avexa and asked some relevant questions.

My first question was when would Avexa release to the market the results from the ATC phase III 24 week process..... The answer was between one to two months because they are currently discussing how to process the information from the trial at the 24 week stage. The discussion is between the company, potential partners and the FDA.

Secondly I asked if they would be requiring another capital raising to get through the current process and the reply was that it depends on the talks with the FDA.

Obviously Dr Chick could not release to me specifics, but I felt encouraged by our conversation.

Unfortunately, I cannot give any more info than that......


----------



## jonnycage (18 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

wow kelvin straight to the top!   thats great that the big boss returned your call.

hopefully positive times to come

jc


----------



## Not Rene (18 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Nice to know that the top is accessible to lowly investors like ourselves.
Still kind of in the dark though. Today it has dropped below 11 cents.


----------



## bumclouds (26 August 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I'd say that random dip we experienced towards the end of last week was caused by a mass triggering of people's stop-losses at the 'below 10c' mark.. 

That's the only explaination I can come up with..  Seems irrational.. But then the market is irrational!


----------



## Big_Daz (4 September 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hello everyone

What does the new HIV breakthrough mean for this company?

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,26024837-5005961,00.html

Is this one of the companies that AVX has an agreement with re: findings?

Thanks guys


----------



## jonnycage (7 September 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

i dont reckon that discovery will effect much.   all going to come
down to the next announment on these trials as to where we are off to
i think

jc


----------



## Bull_Gas (8 September 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

First time poster...LONG TIME AVX sufferer!

Kelvin...I was under the impression that 24 week phase 3 data was not due until 2Q 2010?? Has this been brought forward?

The only information I have been able to extract from management is that there is an ongoing application to the FDA to have the number of patients in the phase 3 trial reduced. In effect a further acceleration of the process.

After the very disappointing market response to the 16 wk phase 3 data, I fail to see how further data will be any different. The market will only respond when ATC is partnered with a large pharma, and the funding cloud is removed.

We could be in for more waiting yet.


----------



## jonnycage (23 September 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

big amount of volume today,  maybe announcement around the corner
that is already out in some fields ??

j c


----------



## Not Rene (2 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

They have closed the Phase 3 trial early to evaluate data. Does anyone here know if that is a good thing or a bad thing? Do they have enough data to go forward to the next stage? Does this mean that they have been pressured by possible partners to present what data they have too early? Or is it good because they won't need to continue spending lots of money running the trial?


----------



## natpierce (2 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Not Rene,
Can I suggest you look at the hotcopper forum as there is some informative posts regarding the latest announcement. Cortinaboy is very informed on this stock.


----------



## jonnycage (2 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

gday natpierce,  wanna share you info here in stead of another site ?

j c


doest seem to be a real clear announcement


----------



## Kalvin (3 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Not Rene said:


> They have closed the Phase 3 trial early to evaluate data. Does anyone here know if that is a good thing or a bad thing? Do they have enough data to go forward to the next stage? Does this mean that they have been pressured by possible partners to present what data they have too early? Or is it good because they won't need to continue spending lots of money running the trial?




Could be either. Clinical Trials may be stopped early because of excess side effects of one drug over another, or because one arm of the trial (i.e one drug or other) is obviously better than the other. As this trial is double-blinded, they would not know if it was the standard treatment or the AVX drug, and would have to stop early.


----------



## jonnycage (4 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

so kalvin are you holding ?   seems like a big bit of breathing space being allowed until early next year.    what to do ..


jc


----------



## Kalvin (4 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

No, just slightly interested in this company; the drug could be a real winner, but equally, the product space is fairly crowded. I am too concerned about an orderly exit from these biotechs to get involved. The decision to close the trial, though, is likely not the companies, and will have nothing to do with cost reduction.
cheers,
k


----------



## jonnycage (5 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

sounds on the fence with a leaning to not good then ?  lol

wait and see, like usual with this one

j c


----------



## suhm (5 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

looking at their cash burn, it looked to me like they would need to do another cap raising or licence out ATC without having analysed the data set as originally they were supposed to go until week 96.

For me the decision to halt the trial and analyse the results was a positive and I bought a parcel because of it more pending release of the results/licencing agreements.

They had recruited 160 patients into the trial by Nov 24 and over 300 in screening or dosing, so a fair few more would have joined the trial not long after that. The announcement of terminating the trial at week 24 means the last person to enrol in the trial has reached week 24. Assuming they are testing every 8 or so weeks.

They had week 16 data so I don't know their exact study design but they would have around 150 patients up to week 40 so would also be able to present that as an extended data set. More possibly at week 32.

Even if the results are good the FDA might require a follow up study with a longer endpoint like the original study design but at that point it Avexa should have been able to farm out the costs of that for % of the sales.

As with all biotech shares if the product fails its not going to be pretty, upside is market cap is 70m so the product doesn't need to be a blockbuster to see a major uplift in sp.


----------



## jonnycage (13 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

a nice run over the last few days, trading just short of 15 cents
with good volume.

heading up ?

j c


----------



## Kalvin (13 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well, its certainly headed up today with a massive volume surge as well as a 19% price hike. Whats more there were some big trades done. Makes me think someone has some inside knowledge......
I bought some at 11 so I happy (but not near as many as a few buying at 14 and 15!).


----------



## Not Rene (13 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

it is certainly a big jump and there must be some reason for it, one that us mere mortals are not privy to
I hope it's not a flash in the pan


----------



## jonnycage (14 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

very positive signs,  good thing you held in not rene : )  where to from here
next question, needs to hold this point

j c


----------



## Kalvin (14 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Yes, it looks good; there were some big trades today and the volumes are massive compared to recent weeks. It looks like some useful positive information may have leaked from somewhere especially given the straight dead bat response from AVX management to the ASX speeding ticket letter. We will see!


----------



## Kalvin (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Bit of a pull back today. Maybe run out of steam; suggests maybe the recent run was purely speculative and not related to inside info....


----------



## jonnycage (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

bound to be profit taking as its gone up so much this week alone.
they would be something behind a jump like that

j c


----------



## Kalvin (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I hope you are right. I guess the long term viability of this stock hinges on the outcome of the 24 week results of ATC. I would say it is likely to be 3-4 weeks before this outcome is known, in which case it means there is some other bit of info that is being speculated about.


----------



## gagaga (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

has AVX solved its cash flow problems yet? If not those recent rallies are really just a trap


----------



## jonnycage (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

have you been following this year gaga ??  thats what the 
rights issue was for months ago.  the trial has stopped, meaning less cash burn

j c


----------



## gagaga (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

oh i wasnt aware of that.....shooo......i just checked a brief broker recommendation on AVX, and it is not very positive..i had this one last year....i might accumulate at a much lower discount


----------



## Kalvin (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I suspect that is more a reflection of the broker than the stock; If ATC is in any way effective against multi drug resistant HIV then its really blue sky for AVX; there isn't much out there that works in that situation and their potential market is huge (especially in the US where the HIV money is). As to their small molecule treatments for Hep C, well again they need testing, but there isn't anything available to treat Hep C once the standard therapies fail. Again, blue sky, but this would require significant investment in trials....early days.


----------



## Purple XS2 (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



gagaga said:


> .....i just checked a brief broker recommendation on AVX, and it is not very positive..



May I respectfully suggest that if you're going to refer to broker reports, you consider adding a little more information, such as when the report was dated, and an inking on what their main thrust was, for example Avexa's cash supply problem, competitive risks for their drugs, regulatory hurdles, etc. I realise it's not appropriate to quote chunks of broker stuff in this forum (that content presumably being subject to copyright, and available to subscribers only), but a bit more than 'not very positive' would be appreciated.


> ... i had this one last year....i might accumulate at a much lower discount



Hmm, very interesting question: will Avexa sink much lower than today's litle pullback? The chartists could have a ball with this one for sure, but I'll stick my head out with the sentiment that the fundamentals look too good for it to lose much of its recent gains.
Party hasn't started yet, but I think the host has started putting out a few chips and dips.

I disclose position in Avexa.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Kalvin said:


> Bit of a pull back today. Maybe run out of steam; suggests maybe the recent run was purely speculative and not related to inside info....




Well it did touch 22cents in early trade ,but the pull back did happen.
I was going to speculate yesterday by placing my share on a sell at 18.5 cents  and buyback at 16.5cents but as soon it retraced its position ,the buyers sprung into action.I withdrew naturally,and my faith in the share has made me sit up today.Look forward to what happens on tomorrow.....
 Speculation ? I just wonder.....like any biomed stock with results pending and directions to be cast ,it's speculative in my experience unless you know a technician in the lab. 
I've decided to hold just like "Purple XS2" mentions perhaps the party is about to happen....I've been waiting for this one along time I can't keep chewing celery sticks all the time !


----------



## Kalvin (15 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



3 veiws of a secret said:


> Well it did touch 22cents in early trade ,but the pull back did happen.
> ....
> I've decided to hold just like "Purple XS2" mentions perhaps the party is about to happen....I've been waiting for this one along time I can't keep chewing celery sticks all the time !





Yeah, I agree with that. As I perhaps incompletely stated, I suspect the broker gaga refers to has no idea of the potential market of an effective HIV drug. If ATC actually works, I suspect AVX would be taken over pretty quickly by the big players


I also disclose a small holding in AVX


----------



## jonnycage (16 October 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

looks like its keep its pace around 18 cents,   needs to hold
to break out again.  interesting days anyways

j c


----------



## Gurgler (16 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

A month on and another spike in the price - perhaps they are planning to make this a regular occurrence very 16th of the month!

Response to the speeding ticket discloses nothing - although AVX alludes to a relatively innocuous ann on 5 Nov which basically extended an existing option agreement - hardly mind-blowing.

Is there something in the wind? Time will tell, I guess.


----------



## jonnycage (26 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

now a trading halt,  pending anouncement about another capital raising.

good bye profits : (


j c


----------



## acfnais (26 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.


----------



## jonnycage (26 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



acfnais said:


> Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.






?  right,  and your aware this will further dilute the stock ???  capital raising remember.  you havent commented on that at all.  id love the stock to be bullish, but this aint bullish news im afraid

j c


----------



## Nathan74 (26 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



jonnycage said:


> now a trading halt,  pending anouncement about another capital raising.
> 
> good bye profits : (
> 
> ...




Hey JC, I agree we'll probably see a short term drop in price. But AVX is not far away from an announcement on phase III results. As I'm sure you know, this announcement will either see the share price soar or drop drastically. For those feeling confident that the results will be positive, then this capital raising could be a good opportunity to pick up more shares at a discounted price?

Actually, I was a bit suprised they are having another capital raising. My understanding was that their cash burn reduced considerably once the ATC trials concluded. I'm interested to hear what AVX has to say in their announcement.


----------



## jonnycage (26 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

im suprised to that its another raising, but as you said maybe
a positive at a discounted price, time will tell.  im just a little
tired of feeding them more cash ...

j c


----------



## Purple XS2 (26 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



jonnycage said:


> now a trading halt,  pending anouncement about another capital raising.




Hooray, I thought, a trading halt! - until .... a minute passed ... and then! Suddenly! a capital raising ..! Hmmmm, very interesting.

One may suspect this has something to do with an institutional buy-in, although as I understand it, Avexa's board has the capacity to issue 15% new shares to any instutional buy-in. (That figure has been valid in the past, but I can't claim any certainty that it's valid at this moment).

But if it were so ... then either this is not an instutional buy-in, and is just raising capital for stuff - which wouldn't be a major surprise - after the Progen merger collapse earlier this year, Avexa had to scramble to get $ from their long-suffering shareholders just to kepp the major  project - ATC - alive. I would imagine that their other projects, to wit; Intergrase and the hep-c development, have been starved of funds and attention for yonks.
Got to water the plants sometime, so maybe this is the time.

Or, on the other hand, it could be a _big_ capital raising via an institutional buy-in, greater than 15%.



> good bye profits : (
> 
> 
> j c




Ahh, look on the bright side j c: Avexa is so entertaining. I can say that now I've at least filled in the hole in my finances after the last 'renouncable rights issue'. From what few words have issued from Avexa today, it's a pretty good bet that this is not another 'renouncable rights issue'.

My guess is a big buy-in.

Or, it could be a case of the ship is about to sink, and this is the last chance of the board to grab cash. Now, I don't believe that to be the case at all - I declare confidence in Avexa's management, at least, more confidence than to suspect them of such perfidy, but it's worth remembering that there's all sorts in this world.

Devil's in the detail, monday it is, I suppose.

Nice weekend, all, especially you, j c  :

Regards,
P


----------



## jonnycage (27 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> Hooray, I thought, a trading halt! - until .... a minute passed ... and then! Suddenly! a capital raising ..! Hmmmm, very interesting.
> 
> One may suspect this has something to do with an institutional buy-in, although as I understand it, Avexa's board has the capacity to issue 15% new shares to any instutional buy-in. (That figure has been valid in the past, but I can't claim any certainty that it's valid at this moment).
> 
> ...





good post!   yes time will tell, hopefully for the better!  think you covered
the options well

jc


----------



## gilbo (28 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Under the ASX Listing Rules, a listed entity must not issue equity securities that total more than 15% of its fully paid ordinary shares in a 12 month period without the approval of shareholders (7.1).

At Avexa's AGM last week share share issues that happened in the prior 12 months (May 2009 - Rights issue and US Institutional placement) were put to shareholders and approved at the meeting. This means that Avexa may now issue equity securities (up to 15% of the number of securities on issue currently) without prior shareholder approval.

Has there been an announcement that the latest trading halt is a capital raising?


----------



## Purple XS2 (28 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



gilbo said:


> Under the ASX Listing Rules, a listed entity must not issue equity securities that total more than 15% of its fully paid ordinary shares in a 12 month period without the approval of shareholders (7.1).
> 
> At Avexa's AGM last week share share issues that happened in the prior 12 months (May 2009 - Rights issue and US Institutional placement) were put to shareholders and approved at the meeting. This means that Avexa may now issue equity securities (up to 15% of the number of securities on issue currently) without prior shareholder approval.



Thanks for that detail. Makes the current announcement the more interesting, in that we may assume this is something other than a 15% issue?


> Has there been an announcement that the latest trading halt is a capital raising?



Check. From the announcement on the ASX company information page:
"the trading halt is necessary as Avexa expects to make an announcement to the market in relation to a capital raising".

No further detail. Very short and (hopefully) sweet.

Regards, 
P.


----------



## Purple XS2 (30 November 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Nathan74 said:


> Hey JC, I agree we'll probably see a short term drop in price.



Not wrong there - taken a 3.5 cent drop to 17 cents.


> But AVX is not far away from an announcement on phase III results. As I'm sure you know, this announcement will either see the share price soar or drop drastically. For those feeling confident that the results will be positive, then this capital raising could be a good opportunity to pick up more shares at a discounted price?



The optimist in me has decided this is a _good thing_, keeps the projects other than ATC fed.


> Actually, I was a bit surprised they are having another capital raising. My understanding was that their cash burn reduced considerably once the ATC trials concluded. I'm interested to hear what AVX has to say in their announcement.



Today's announcement says very little - Avexa apparently has already raised 8 million through 'institutional and sophisticated investors', and the rest of us monkey's can squabble over another 3 million.

Hey, I'm not sophisticated? Sheesh ...

Anyway, another 60-90 sleeps till the clouds in the crystal ball disperse and we see what we've got here ...


----------



## Sdajii (1 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I agree, the term 'sophisticated investor' is a very condescending term when it is used to refer to one group and exclude another. In many cases it is probably also very inaccurate (though at times spot on).

I made some excellent profits with AVX earlier this year, with many short term trades over about a six month period during their jump from about 6c to about 13c. Then when they jumped up to 14.5c after sitting around at 10-12c for a couple of months I excitedly sold... then watched them quickly climb to the low 20s and felt ill! Oh well, I suppose that's what you get for not sticking in for the long term, and I still made good profits all along the way.

I'm not sure if I will buy back in now. The jump up to around 20c was based on hot air and I suspect they may fall back down to where they were. It seems like strange timing for a SPP since if they waited a while longer they would be able to get more money. 14c is a fairly discounted price from 21c or so, and if they didn't expect it to fall back to 12c or so why raise funds at 14c now? If I could buy back in at 14c I probably would, but only a bad trial result will make that happen, and then you wouldn't want them. I'm not sure if a good announcement would make their price soar now, at one stage they actually dropped significantly after a positive announcement and since they are currently sitting high after a rise of around 80% based on nothing, I can see that happening again.

The drug looks okay, but as we have all been seeing all along, the company is struggling to deal with getting it developed and to market.


----------



## Purple XS2 (1 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Disregarding for the moment rumours and theories about who the sophisticated and institutional investors may be (entertaining though those speculations may be), there's a very good reason why the Avexa board would raise the cash they have, at this exact time.

Optimistic as we may be about Atricitibane Phase III results, and subsequent commercialisation, (I admit to a tingle just thinking about it ... must ... stop ... that ...), we all know it's a risk - ATC may sink beneath the waves, and AVX goes to back to the bottom drawer (if we hold on to any shares at all).

Life for the company however must go on - there are of course other products in the pipeline which may yet have a glorious future of their own.

So as a matter of sound business strategy, now - well ahead of the Phase III outcome - is the best time to hedge against a worst case scenario - the worst case being that ATC fails and the company goes belly-up, because money couldn't be raised to keep the pipeline in progress in the event of an ATC failure.

Sure, if ATC goes well, the company will be flush to do anything it wants, but why bet the company's survival on ATC when there's an another way to bet?

This way, Avexa is at least capable of making progress in the second-worst case scenario - that ATC fails but Avexa lives to fight another day.

I'm sure 2nd worse sounds a lot better than worst to the management.

I'm happy with the timing of this capital raising - some people in some forums say all sorts of uncharitable things about the business acumen of this or that board of directors, but on this score I reckon the BOD have shown some nous.

Regards,
P.


----------



## Sdajii (1 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Not a bad point, although it's scarey to think that they are making plans with ATC failure in mind. If ATC fails, even best case scenario isn't looking too pretty compared to even the most modest of hopes in an ATC success scenario, which is what the vast majority of the current SP represents. Interesting times! I am sure I will continue my internal debate as to whether or not to jump back in!

Good luck to all holders


----------



## Gurgler (8 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> Hey, I'm not sophisticated? Sheesh ...




Neither am I, but yesterday I received offer docs. Did this happen to anyone else? Perhaps the definition has been expanded!

Offer price 0.14 cents in lots valued from $1000, $3000, $5000 $10000 or $15000. This must be the *sophisticated *way to buy!

Having participated in the last spo at 7 cents, not sure how I feel about paying double that. Any further thoughts Purple?


----------



## Nathan74 (8 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Gurgler said:


> Neither am I, but yesterday I received offer docs. Did this happen to anyone else? Perhaps the definition has been expanded!
> 
> Hi Gurgler, AVX are raising 3M in addition to the raising from sophisticated investors. They sent out this offer to all investors on Friday last week.
> 
> I don't think anyone could tell you if 14c is a good price (except a few on the inside at AVX). If ATC passes the current phase of trials, then 14c is a very good price IMO. If the news that will be released early in 2010 is bad, then it's possible the price will drop back to where it was earlier this year. ie. There is no doubting it, this offer is HIGH RISK and very speculative.


----------



## Sdajii (8 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Gurgler said:


> Neither am I, but yesterday I received offer docs. Did this happen to anyone else? Perhaps the definition has been expanded!
> 
> Offer price 0.14 cents in lots valued from $1000, $3000, $5000 $10000 or $15000. This must be the *sophisticated *way to buy!
> 
> Having participated in the last spo at 7 cents, not sure how I feel about paying double that. Any further thoughts Purple?




Why wouldn't you buy them? Unless ATC fails before you get the chance (possible I suppose) you will probably be able to make at least 10-15% on your money if you just sell them as soon as you're able to. Is it the fear of the share price tumbling down before you get the chance to sell? I sold out when they hit 14.5c and wish I'd hung on until they went up to 18-22c  but I certainly wouldn't buy back in at that price just yet. Nothing substantial happened to take them from 12c to 22c so I suppose it's possible at any time we could see them drop down to the 10-12c territory they were at until recently. With a company like this it is obviously very speculative and it's possible we could see them down to 1c by February (eg SPP heavily undersubscribed then ATC knocked back), but I would probably take the punt and buy back in at 14c given the chance.


----------



## gilbo (13 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I would like to point out that the term "Sophisticated investor" is defined in the Corporations Act (s 708(8)). The aim of this section is to allow companies to raise capital without going to the expense of issuing a disclosure document by offering securities to investors who, amongst other requirements, have a minimum net worth and who must purchase at least $500,000 of the offered securities. 

The term "sophisticated investor" is thus not a subjective term used to rate an investors performance!


----------



## suhm (13 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Sdajii said:


> Why wouldn't you buy them? Unless ATC fails before you get the chance (possible I suppose) you will probably be able to make at least 10-15% on your money if you just sell them as soon as you're able to. Is it the fear of the share price tumbling down before you get the chance to sell? I sold out when they hit 14.5c and wish I'd hung on until they went up to 18-22c  but I certainly wouldn't buy back in at that price just yet. Nothing substantial happened to take them from 12c to 22c so I suppose it's possible at any time we could see them drop down to the 10-12c territory they were at until recently. With a company like this it is obviously very speculative and it's possible we could see them down to 1c by February (eg SPP heavily undersubscribed then ATC knocked back), but I would probably take the punt and buy back in at 14c given the chance.




I bought in when they closed the trials because drug trials are typically only cancelled if the safety committee determine the drug is extremely bad or good, i.e. it would be unethical to continue. At the interim dosing they chose the lower ATC dose which means they weren't as concerned about the effectiveness of the drug with an adequate effect using the lower dosing level. It also means they need to spend less money so should have been able to conserve cash.

I for one have been completely surprised by the cap raising, I thought they would be able to reach the release of phase 3 results without having to raise anymore money. I generally only buy biotech shares if cap raisings are no longer an issue as they love to pass the hat around diluting you into oblivion.

Management may not want to throw the dice on ATC as the sp will tank if ATC fails and dilution would be infinitely larger if they tried to raise money to develop their pipeline. It however decreases my confidence in the commercilisation of ATC as it seems like unnecessary dilution if ATC is such a good product.

It might also make sense if they are rewarding themselves with some cheap stock, I understand greed as a motivation, but i haven't seen any change in director's interest notices.

I want to subscribe and average up but if they only raise 3m i'll probably get a meaningless amount of stock and tie up my cash but if they don't scale back the sp will be hammered.


----------



## Nathan74 (13 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



suhm said:


> I want to subscribe and average up but if they only raise 3m i'll probably get a meaningless amount of stock and tie up my cash but if they don't scale back the sp will be hammered.



Isn't the AVX sp already being hammered? Down around 40% in one month and in a nasty down trend. Based on the current trend, the 14c capital raising offer is starting to look pretty average for those looking for a quick profit.


----------



## Sdajii (14 December 2009)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Nathan74 said:


> Isn't the AVX sp already being hammered? Down around 40% in one month and in a nasty down trend. Based on the current trend, the 14c capital raising offer is starting to look pretty average for those looking for a quick profit.




The capital raising was always going to do that. A large number of people bought into AVX at well under 10c and if they can sell for anything over 15c and use that money to buy back in at 14c, they are very likely to do so if they don't personally have the capital to substantially increase their holdings - a nice, quick, safe way to make some xmas spending money  Last time they had a SPP the price dropped too, down to about 8.5c if I remember correctly, and that was only a few months ago.

Good post, suhm. You raise some interesting points. I think what it all boils down to is that if you purchase/hold AVX at the moment you are betting on ATC. Let's face it, if ATC fails, AVX will fall severely. If ATC is a winner, AVX is going to jump higher than the stars once ATC is available at the pharmacy. I don't think you could summarise it more concisely than that, would you agree?


----------



## jonnycage (15 January 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

positive movements today, back over the 17 cent mark,  start of another run,
thoughts ?   maybe 20 cents next mark

j c


----------



## Sdajii (15 January 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I wasn't sure how far it would drop in response to fund raising, but when I had the chance to buy at 15.5c I jumped back in. Today was very exciting, close of 17.5c. I don't expect them to drop much in the near future in the absence of any bad news. I could see them jumping into the 20s next week, or sitting around 17c for weeks. All speculation though, and of course, anything could happen.

Early this week I had a fresh look at Avexa's programs other than ATC, and was actually quite surprised that I had dismissed it all as being so insignificant. Some looks very promising, but being so far away from market, it's not likely to do much in the short term.

ATC really does seem like a winner. With so much positive and absolutely no negatives (so far) it seems unlikely the trials were stopped early for bad reasons. If no one else comes up with a drug which makes ATC redundant, the only thing I can see going wrong (other than the results having been *severely* fudged!) is one of the monster drug companies putting in a bid the shareholder's can't say no to, leaving us diluted to nothing. However, to do that they're going to have to put in a big bid, so worst case scenario is still excellent.



I hold, I am just some anonymous guy on the internets, do your own research, etc


----------



## fairshare (18 January 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Hi folks. I am new to the world of stock forums and must at the outset disclose I hold a reasonable chunk of Avexa shares (doesn't everyone post cap raising?).

I joined this forum as most brokers whose publications I have access to got a little scared last year and stopped following/commenting on Avexa, and I am keen to continue considering thoughts beyond my own on the stock.

I was recently reading in another forum some posts stating that there have been ‘plenty of HIV antiretroviral drugs that have reached phase 3 trials but not been commercialised’. 

Does anyone have any concrete evidence of this?

I cannot find any evidence that it is true. 

In the past, Avexa's own literature  highlighted that there has not been a case of a drug similar to ATC reaching phase 3 and not proceeding to market. I am guessing both ASIC and APRA would have had cause to clobber Avexa if they had issued misleading information.

I also understand from reading some posts on HotCopper that Baker Young Stockbrokers were recommending Avexa as a good buy in the Adelaide press back in December on the basis that the latest cap raising has bought them sufficient breathing space to negotiate with another potential partner thereby putting much more pressure on Tibotec (J&J) to come to the table with a respectable offer. I did not see this article.

Obviously I hope Baker Youngs thoughts pan out to be true. 

Does anyone have any other thoughts or more insight into what baker Young had to say?

Cheers
JR


----------



## Go Nuke (18 January 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



> ATC really does seem like a winner. With so much positive and absolutely no negatives (so far) it seems unlikely the trials were stopped early for bad reasons. If no one else comes up with a drug which makes ATC redundant, the only thing I can see going wrong (other than the results having been severely fudged!) is one of the monster drug companies putting in a bid the shareholder's can't say no to, leaving us diluted to nothing. However, to do that they're going to have to put in a big bid, so worst case scenario is still excellent.




Drug wise perhaps...but company wise...what about shareholder destruction? Or is that dilution?

Ive been a holder of AVX for about 3 years now and haven't seen much in the way of my investment moving forwards. In fact quite the opposite holding a large loss.
I passed on the latest C/R, and the one before that...however did participate in the one BEFORE that (53c or something).

Hopefully they will get this to market, though i doubt I'll ever end up in the black.


----------



## Sdajii (18 January 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Go Nuke said:


> Drug wise perhaps...but company wise...what about shareholder destruction? Or is that dilution?
> 
> Ive been a holder of AVX for about 3 years now and haven't seen much in the way of my investment moving forwards. In fact quite the opposite holding a large loss.
> I passed on the latest C/R, and the one before that...however did participate in the one BEFORE that (53c or something).
> ...




Ignoring dilution, if ATC was on the pharmacy shelf tomorrow I think your investment would be looking extremely nice. Of course, exactly what will happen between now and getting ATC to market is a difficult thing to predict. The last two capital raisings would certainly have been good ones to jump in for though, and they haven't really diluted things very much. For the sake of the long-term holders, let's hope there is as little need for further capital raising as possible.


----------



## Purple XS2 (3 February 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Been an interesting year so far for small biotechs making positive announcements to the market - Avexa is due to release its final Phase-III clinical results for its lead product Apricitabine "ATC", sometime this quarter. I don't have any specifics on when - could be imminent, could be 31 March.

If we entertain the notion that Phase-III ATC results will corroborate the good results from Phase-II, that would be a major plus for the company. (anything less than a parallel with Phase-II would be a major negative).

Given the convulsions that have accompanied other biotechs blowing their trumpets, those who have been watching this stock would be well advised to consider their position ahead of the release of Phase-III - is it worth the risk/reward ("risk/reward" I believe is the technical term for 'punt'  ), or not?

Avexa has a slightly more substantial market cap than some of the exploding minnows we've seen recently, ie $130 M compared to say $30 M for ADO prior to its recent eruption, whether that helps stabilise the outcome of Phase-III results remains to be seen.

For good or ill, we're approaching the end-game ...


----------



## Purple XS2 (4 February 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well, Avexa released results for their Phase-III trials of their leading drug Apriciabine ("ATC"), today, sort of, and left one feeling somewhat half-pregnant.

Results are basically good, in that ATC continues to show a clinical advantage over the control treatment, the long-established 3TC ...

But ... also rather confusing and underwhelming, in that results as published are for a sub-set of the whole Phase-III patient pool, and omit some vital data, such as giving comprehensive figures for 'undetectable' copies of HIV per m/l.

Results for Phase-II were given for patients with less than 50 copies HIV per m/l, and less than 400 copies per m/l.

Published Phase-III only cites figures for patients with less than 50 copies per m/l.

In other words, comparing Phase-III results thus far with the earlier (and highly promising) Phase-II is a bit like comparing apples to oranges.

Mr Market didn't exactly love it to death - opening price of $0.155 fell to $0.145.  (with after-the-bell auction yet to finish).

After the brief trading suspension when the announcement was made, trading resumed at $0.175, rose briefly and then gradually fell back.
(Though it should be noted it was a red day for the ASX as a whole).

More detailed study of Phase-III to follow later in this 1st Qtr 2010.

Bit of a damp squib, really - in some ways I would have preferred a crash and burn - at least I'd know where I stood.

But (he said, smiling bravely) ATC stands up as marketable, and now we wonder: is it marketable enough?

Host invited guests into the party, but put on a scratched ABBA record. Crowd restless.


----------



## jonnycage (4 February 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

well said mate

really was a whole lot of nothing released, and the marked seemed
to react accordingly

waiting game again

j c


----------



## Not Rene (7 February 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Ahhh, but ABBA went on to great things!!
I am a little confused as to why they would release half of the results though, why did they bother? 
I suppose it is nice to get lots of updates though as soon as they become available.


----------



## suhm (7 February 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I thought the results were bad, its definitely not a blockbuster drug in its current state, it needed more patients for the trial to be powered appropriately but if the p value was close to .05 big pharma might see it as not inferior to standard treatment and do a deal because it has a better side effect profile.

In its current state Drs would only use it as a salvage drug in multi resistant patients or if pts were intolerant of other medications. It has a niche but for the big money it needs to be much closer to first line treatment than that.


----------



## steven Spiteri (15 February 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Avexa needs to do its homework regarding a press release to the public and not necesarily to other Biohealth companies after all that is where the Mom and Dad investers are. Beware of its large number of shares and also the large daily volumes with no significant SP movements.


----------



## Not Rene (2 March 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Tibotec have not renewed their option and now we have slumped to 11 cents.
Woe is me :-(
Can anyone see any light at the end of the tunnel now?


----------



## Purple XS2 (3 March 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Not Rene said:


> Tibotec have not renewed their option and now we have slumped to 11 cents.




Chatter around the traps (read: that _other_ forum) is that Tibotec's disinclination to continue the option for Avexa's 2nd-string, experimental product, Integrase was due largly to corporate trimming at Tibotec (for which some corroboration can be found in a Belgian news report).




> Woe is me :-(
> Can anyone see any light at the end of the tunnel now?



Be consoled I feel your woe.
Main game is unchanged: Avexa's primary product ATC is a sound prospect for FDA approval, and commercialisation following on from that. What drives this latest share-price slump is the perception which I well sympathise, that Tibotec's departure from the scene is one more blot on the Avexa copybook.

So I do see light at the end of the tunnel certainly, although the tunnel persists in the annoying habit of tunneling ever further into the unknown.

Things may brighten up, and may perhaps brighten up when unexpected and at any time, so I hold.

P.


----------



## jonnycage (7 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

here we go again lol  trading halt regarding atc -  my humble opinion,  its
either go or no.  too much up in the air - not enough firm info - hope
its good news,  but not holding breath

jc


----------



## Sdajii (7 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



jonnycage said:


> here we go again lol  trading halt regarding atc -  my humble opinion,  its
> either go or no.  too much up in the air - not enough firm info - hope
> its good news,  but not holding breath
> 
> jc




I've made and lost a lot of money on AVX. I sold out a while ago when the ATC results were announced so vaguely that it seemed they were trying to hide bad news. No p-value? These people are supposed to be scientists, right? If life scientists don't give you a p-value you really need to hold some doubts about how sure they are about things. I had very high hopes for ATC and believed it was going to be a winner, but after the last pieces of news I turned away with no intention of jumping back in. The lack of recent news would have me even more nervous if I was still holding - it's not easy to keep a big deal quiet, but much easier to keep a lack of news quiet.

I agree, it's likely a "go or no" announcement on ATC, which should see either a tremendous loss or something a lot nicer. Way too risky for me and my gut feeling is very negative, but I'm a very interested spectator and look forward to the announcement. For the sake of holders I hope I am wrong, and good luck!


----------



## jonnycage (7 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

gday mate

some good points,  i sold out of half of my holdings with the vague atc update
earlier in the year,  and will make the next decision in selling the rest monday.

a shame if its the end

jc


----------



## Purple XS2 (8 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



jonnycage said:


> gday mate
> some good points,  i sold out of half of my holdings with the vague atc update
> earlier in the year,  and will make the next decision in selling the rest monday.
> 
> a shame if its the end




Well, it's the end, alright; to be more precise, the end-game has arrived. I've got no idea what chooks (Chicks?) are coming home to roost Monday, but Monday it is.

Been quite a ride. There may be some reward for the long-suffering, or it may be a debacle. To put it mildly, I'll receive Monday's revelations with interest.

It will be all over on Monday, won't it? I'd go stark-raving barmy if this thing messes with my head with any sort of strung-out saga from here!

(exit left, gibbering)

P.


----------



## Sdajii (10 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well, even though I sold out earlier in the year because I was fairly sure this would happen, I can't help feeling a little disappointed. Not long ago at all I was fairly confident that ATC would be a winner, and it was only earlier this year that I saw it probably wasn't going to be, and today that has been confirmed. Today's price is about what I was expecting, about a 70-75% drop (ouch for those still holding!). If I wasn't already fully committed elsewhere I'd be considering jumping in this morning to profit on the dead cat bounce, but even aside from that, at around 3c they look like good value considering the other projects AVX has on the go. Today might be the best time in a long time to buy. Obviously we are going to see AVX find a completely new place now, obviously far below where it was until very recently, but likely well above where it is in the first few minutes of trade today.

Dare I say, when reports were phrased in a positive but extremely vague way, with p-values etc not given, and in the perspective of what has passed over the last week or so, it looks like the board must have known what was inevitable months ago but were happy to keen investors in the dark. I would have trouble trusting them now (not that you can trust the boards of many companies, of course!).


----------



## Purple XS2 (10 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Sdajii said:


> Well, even though I sold out earlier in the year because I was fairly sure this would happen...
> .... Today might be the best time in a long time to buy. Obviously we are going to see AVX find a completely new place now, obviously far below where it was until very recently, but likely well above where it is in the first few minutes of trade today.
> 
> Dare I say, when reports were phrased in a positive but extremely vague way, with p-values etc not given, and in the perspective of what has passed over the last week or so, it looks like the board must have known what was inevitable months ago but were happy to keen investors in the dark. I would have trouble trusting them now (not that you can trust the boards of many companies, of course!).




Well said, Sdajii.

I'm hanging on to mine if only because I've written it off as having any value, and a crowded exit throng has no appeal at all.
There's an announcement out as a follow-up indicating a general meeting will be called (no date set as yet) to continue the decapitations, with the Chairman Mr Drona first up for the chop.

Any future for Avexa now depends on who stays - I'll be interested to see if Dr Coates remains as chief medical officer, given that CEO Dr. Chick has walked the plank.

As I said once before, when putting up my hard cash for the various Avexa rights issues, there are worse reasons to lose money than being part of the HIV research story.

I've been part of that story, and I've lost money. I can live with that.

Regards,

P.


----------



## Not Rene (26 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

General meeting coming up to sort out the mess to some extent 
Does anyone have any opinions on which way to vote?


----------



## jonnycage (28 May 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

no real opinion on these guys anymore, still holding some, no point giving away just yet.  without some kind of revamp of the atc i cant see
much doing

j c


----------



## worthind (19 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

AIDS activists ask AVEXA not to leave patients behind

June 17, 2010

Dr. Susan Cox
Former Senior Vice President, Drug Development at Avexa

Cc: Nathan Drona, Chairman of the Board at Avexa
Stephen Kerr, Board Secretary

We, the undersigned, are asking the decision makers at Avexa to reconsider the decision to stop the development of apricitabine, a nucleoside analog that has shown good efficacy in patients with the most common nucleoside mutation, M184V. Physicians and a growing number of patients with limited treatment options have been counting on the approval of this drug to enable the construction of effective regimens. Apricitabine can mean the tipping point between success and failure of a salvage regimen ? between life and death.

It is well known that the management of multidrug resistant HIV has improved dramatically with the recent approval of a number of highly effective antiretroviral drugs, including raltegravir, maraviroc, darunavir, and etravirine. Despite the impressive effectiveness of these drugs in clinical trials, a growing subset of patients continues to exhibit virologic failure in clinical practice ? even when adherence is good. Most of these treatment failures likely occur because of an inability to construct a regimen containing two to three fully effective agents for individuals with extensive prior exposure to antiretroviral drugs. Some of these patients acquired drug resistance while participating in clinical trials. Failure rates in recent phase III studies such as DUET (etravirine and darunavir), MOTIVATE (maraviroc), and BENCHMRK (raltegravir) were in the 27-40% range. Many of the patients who experienced virologic failure while participating in these studies were subsequently unable to construct suppressive regimens.

The prevalence of multidrug failure in clinical practice is not well documented, however there are signs that the number of patients in need of new options is growing. Deeks and colleagues at UCSF/SFGH have an ongoing observational cohort of patients who have developed drug resistant HIV (the SCOPE cohort). Most of these patients have been able to construct a fully suppressive regimen and are currently doing well. However, of the original 300 patients, approximately 40 now have evidence of having failed all six therapeutic drug classes. These 40 patients have a GSS of either zero or one, and have no clear options for suppressing HIV replication. Many have advanced disease (CD4 < 100) and hence may not be able to wait for the development and approval of multiple new options.

A 2009 survey of 94 responding HIV clinicians in the United States found approximately 250 patients unable to construct a viable regimen due to resistance. In contrast to a common assessment heard in 2009, several key clinicians now recognize that the latest generation of drugs has not proven as durable as they had hoped, and that resistance is slowly reemerging as a problem for some patients. Although the number of multidrug resistant patients with no treatment options may be relatively small, there is concern that this may be the tip of the iceberg and that the industry will not be prepared to meet the need for newer drugs with unique resistance profiles.

The options for constructing a three-active agent regimen for this growing population during the next four years appears to be few, which means that the chances for survival for those with lower CD4 cells counts are diminishing. Consequently, an early expanded access program that makes available current investigational agents that have progressed beyond phase II could help improve the outlook for survival for these patients in need. But the drugs must remain in development.

Other small companies developing new HIV drugs, such as TaiMed and Myriad have faced the same difficulties in finding partners that Avexa has. Of these companies? drugs, though, apricitabine stands out as a member of a well-understood class, the one nearest to approval, and as an agent addressing one of the most common forms of drug resistance among all people with HIV (including those still na?ve to treatment). For the salvage population, convenience in dosing is not the issue: activity is! In our recent meeting with the major HIV drug makers we have been raising awareness about the growing unmet need for new salvage options, and as they hear this message from community and clinicians, they have begun to pay attention. Researchers and statisticians are also working on creative ways to conduct registrational clinical trials in an environment when there are many effective options and a relatively small subject pool (the Forum for Collaborative HIV Research is holding a workshop on this issue in October 2010). Finally, the FDA has said it recognizes the need for new salvage therapies and appears willing to work with companies to bring new products to market in this difficult environment. The tide is turning; this is not the time to abandon apricitabine.

We the undersigned believe that apricitabine is a potentially important drug, and one of the few products currently in the pipeline that could help patients with multidrug resistance tip the balance in favor of viral suppression, health, and, for many, life itself. We ask that Avexa reconsider its decision not only based on potential sales but also on the survival of patients at risk.

Sincerely,
The Members of the AIDS Treatment Activists Coalition- New York, New York
The Members of the European AIDS Treatment Group- Brussels, Belgium


----------



## worthind (21 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

ATTENTION AVEXA SHAREHOLDERS

I just received the Notice from the EGM Shareholders.

An EXCELLENT SUMMARY of what went wrong and of a better way forward for Avexa and its shareholders.

RESTORE VALUE FOR AVX SHAREHOLDERS

to quote... "We strongly believe the decision to close ATC was premature and the reasons given by MR DRONA for its termination to be highly unsatisfactory"

A better way forward...(but why wouldnt this have been done already...

1. Present to the FDA the most recent ATC data and agree with them on a path to market. This is a relatively inexpensive process (so why hasnt it been done MR DRONA)

2. Re-engage partnering discussions with a clear path to market agreed with regulatory agencies

3. Establish an experienced managment team...

4. Provide clearer communication to shareholders...

WHAT YOU CAN DO NOW...

VOTE FOR ALL RESOLUTIONS!


----------



## lemontree (21 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Worthind, just wondering where you are getting this information from? Is it available to the public?


----------



## worthind (22 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

lt, yeah all publically available...

hiv activists call for ATC on the web
EGM group post out in my mail box

remember, your vote is important...

VOTE FOR ALL RESOLUTIONS

DRONA MUST GO


----------



## jonnycage (22 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

as a long time believer (dreamer) ive this stock, im finally out, still keeping
an eye on things, but no more time, i think the dash is done, they missed
the starting gun..

j c


----------



## Sdajii (22 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I can't really see this being turned around, and don't plan to jump back in, but gee, it would be pretty amazing if it did. I suppose the reason it would be amazing is that it's so unlikely... which is why I don't plan to jump back in... but, I'll keep an eye on it out of curiosity.

The good thing about jumping back at the moment is that they've already had their crash, so don't have far to drop, and if you had solid reason to think there was a strong chance of ATC being picked back up you might see it as a great opportunity. I don't really consider a group of AIDS patients begging for the drug to be continued to be reason though. If the science and economics aren't there, their pleas won't be heard.

Good luck to all holders, I'll be sitting in the audience watching


----------



## Purple XS2 (22 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Even'n, all:

I'm still in, being obstinate. While I allow myself some grounds for hope that ATC may be salvageable, I'm yet to be persuaded that the Hewett & Crowley spiel (received today) has the answers.

I'll be going to the EGM next month for the entertainment, and there'd better be coffee and bikkies! If any ASFers are going along, look for a grizzled head poking out of a Coelacanth T-shirt, and say "Hi".

I'm looking for answers to 2 ?
1. How come the existing board has switched off the pipeline (Integrase, HCV, etc). Isn't that what the last fund-raising was supposed to fund?

2. Which if any, big pharma partners do the H & C group imagine they can do business with, that haven't already looked at ATC?

After that, to the bikkies ...

P.


----------



## Not Rene (25 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

What for heaven's sake is a Coelacanth T-shirt?
Anyway, my simplistic mind asks, why can't they at least sell it to some poor African or Asian nations that can't afford the big costing drugs?


----------



## Sdajii (26 June 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Not Rene said:


> What for heaven's sake is a Coelacanth T-shirt?




I assumed it was a t-shirt with a picture of a coelocanth on it.

Today's movement in the share price surprised and puzzled me a little. The announcement was interesting though. They really buried ATC comprehensively.

I think the issue with donating ATC to the third world is that ethics committees would say that since it would require more funding to get through the trials here, it wouldn't be ethical to simply use it blindly over there now. Without it being lucrative, no one is going to fund the rest of the development.

There are other economic reasons which are a little more complex, and there may also be some politics along the lines of "Don't spend money keeping AIDS carriers alive allowing them to spread it more, simply let them die sooner, infect fewer, and be less of a drain on the limited economy", although I doubt many would admit to it.


----------



## jonnycage (27 July 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

because i enjoy pain and would like to try and peg some back with these guys, got back in at 3 cents,  and ready to take profit at any stage lol

j c


----------



## jonnycage (16 September 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

ah old avexa. the stock in lymbo lol  interesting couple months ahead.  ill keep in a t 3 cents be ready to cash out on any rise.  cant help Dr Chick cashed
it on the stock hitting 20 cents right before the now famous end to atc announcement.  j c


----------



## worthind (3 November 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

FDA announces new 'proposed' path to market for HIV drugs...

cant post the link, but see other AVX boards...

MUCH MUCH quicker to market, and ATC has most if not all of what is required...

good agm/xmas coming...


----------



## worthind (3 November 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



jonnycage said:


> cant help Dr Chick cashed




not correct their jc

why would u cash with sooo much potential and a quicker path to market...
'load up' could be the term...

you may want to check the participants list...at the forum for collaborative hiv research site on
Emerging Issues in Clinical Trials for New ARV Development


----------



## worthind (24 December 2010)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

BMS $300M NRTI deal validates ATC market potential

December 20, 2010 08:00 AM Eastern Time 
Bristol-Myers Squibb and Oncolys BioPharma Enter Global Licensing Agreement for Investigational HIV Compound

NEW YORK & TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) and Oncolys BioPharma Inc., a privately held biotechnology company based in Japan, announced today that the companies have signed a definitive agreement under which Bristol-Myers Squibb will acquire exclusive worldwide rights to manufacture, develop and commercialize festinavir, a once-a-day, orally available nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) in Phase II development for HIV.

Under the terms of the agreement, Oncolys may receive up to $286 million including upfront, development, regulatory and sales milestone payments. Oncolys is also eligible to receive tiered royalties on the worldwide product sales.

“Bristol-Myers Squibb has been dedicated to helping patients prevail over HIV for more than two decades and is committed to the ongoing discovery, development and delivery of medicines to fight HIV/AIDS globally,” said Brian Daniels, senior vice president, Development. “The profile of festinavir offers the possibility of improvement in the safety of long-term HIV treatment, an area of significant unmet medical need.”


----------



## jonnycage (28 January 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



worthind said:


> not correct their jc
> 
> why would u cash with sooo much potential and a quicker path to market...
> 'load up' could be the term...
> ...




hey thanks for your reply, and of course entilted to your opinion.  But your very wrong here. a bunch of people like me followed this stock a loooooonnnng  time.
this stock was handled very poorly by this man.  But kudos, you like him so he has one fan.

go for gold

jc


----------



## worthind (29 January 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

hey jc
your original quote was


jonnycage said:


> cant help Dr Chick cashed




my response was simply that i dont believe Chicky has cashed, as u claim
as he is still representing the company in some form
as you can see here
http://www.hivforum.org/storage/hiv...nicalTrials/participants list for website.pdf

and with the potential of a much faster path to market, and a validating $300M deal for a very similar drug that has half of ATCs pedigree, could mean a very nice return on the current AVX sp, so

why would you...

not sure why u point the bone at chicky rather than drongo drona, bumms and mini-me?
appreciate ur thoughts...


----------



## jonnycage (29 January 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



worthind said:


> hey jc
> your original quote was
> 
> 
> ...




hey mate, i hope this company can turn around and that anyone that has got the stock gets some sort of return back.

i  dont follow this stock anymore,  actually, not following many.  so i dont have any thoughts to share.

cheers  jc


----------



## worthind (15 February 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Brilliant investment by the AVX Board...

on 11.11.10 the Avexa board invested $1.5M in Allied Medical and the Coridon vaccine work of Prof Frazer...

and in return received 24% of Allied shares...

this morning, BioMD (BOD) and Allied have agreed to merge/reverse take over

with BioMD issuing Allied 430M shares @ 6c...

24% of 430M shares is about 100M shares that AVX now owns in the merged entity

100M shares @ 6c is $6M

AVXs investment in Allied has increased from $1.5M to $6M on paper in 3 months...!!!

Further, just before the trading halt, the BOD share prices was moving north fast and closed at 9c...

Where will they reopen, and trade when the merger is done, and what will AVXs investment be worth then, and when the upandcoming Allied and BOD businesses continue to move forward

All in all, the AVEXA BOARD should be give a massive pat on the back for a very good investment at what was a difficult time for the company...

Compare this M&A experience with Drongos...

At the current BOD sp, this investment alone is worth 1 c to the AVX sp...

BRING ON THE FDA MEETING and ATC at market...


----------



## grandia3 (19 February 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



worthind said:


> BRING ON THE FDA MEETING and ATC at market...




Considering the past failure of reaching an agreement for the ATC which was announced on 10 May 2010, 
do you think AVX will have another chance on this FDA meeting? 

Based on the reasons why potential partners are not interested (quoted from the announcement):
"time and capital required to secure regulatory approval for ATC in key markets may be too large ..........."
"required dosage for ATC may be too high ....... "
"inability to determine the level of activity of ATC .......... "

I don't have my hopes up for the meeting, but I would be pleased if it proves otherwise 

Disclaimer: I don't hold any AVX shares, but will be watching it

just my  and best of luck to all holders


----------



## worthind (22 February 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

g
i think it would be in ur interests to do a little home work on this one

the previous board regime had other plans for ATC... they just looked to benefit themselves while not fully informing shrholders...

the current board are looking to the FDA for a faster path to market 

the FDA have recently announced a much faster/cheaper path for drugs targetting treatment experienced.

page 35 here http://www.hivforum.org/storage/hiv...inicalTrials/3_2_murray_salvage studies 3.pdf

BMS have recently partnered a very similar NRTI for $300M, much earlier in development, see above in this thread

BMS will be looking for options for fixed dose combinations with ATZ, EFV and Festinavir

ATC also offers other pharma a very safe and efficacious drug to combine with their existing drugs... isentress twice a day, Viiv losing their nnrti, gilead to stay in front...

AVX will be doing the final rounds with the minutes of the FDA meeting, and a very fast and cheap path to market, very soon 

get in in the low 4s while u can...

what do u think a $500M partnership will do to the share price, together with the other irons in AVX fire...


----------



## worthind (28 February 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

DNA Vaccine Developer Coridon Appoints CEO, Board Members
February 24, 2011
Brisbane, Australia, 24 Feb 2011: DNA vaccine development company Coridon Pty Ltd. today announced that it has appointed Neil Finlayson as Chief Executive Officer and appointed two new Board members.
...
Former Avexa CEO Dr. Julian Chick and Allied Medical CEO Lee Rodne have also been appointed to Coridon?s Board.

http://www.biotech-intelligence.com/html/html/pool_7/c7c818284e05928d37dce0c77af4d9d1.html

representing Avexa?

look out coatsey, you better get some communication about the FDA meeting out there, before you are crucified as Interim CEO (lol)

chicky didnt cash
BRING BACK THE CHICK


----------



## Not Rene (28 March 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Like Lazarus they have arisen!!


----------



## worthind (29 March 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*



Not Rene said:


> Like Lazarus they have arisen!!




i think 'started to rise' may be a little more like it

i think, like Lazarus, they have a loong SP rise to go

ATC*Milestones*Royalties+Integrase1+IntegraseII+Valevia$65M+Allied+Coridon > 6 c


----------



## worthind (29 March 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

When asked by BTN whether Avexa would return to clinical investigation of ATC after that meeting, Coates indicated the company would only return to the program with a partner.

“We will not undertake clinical trials on our own after FDA,” he said.

“Even after we have gained a good go-decision from them, that what we have put to them shows that ATC could be clinically trialled in a different way.

“We would only do that if we can obtain a suitable and appropriate partner.”


----------



## worthind (15 April 2011)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

another $25k of Director's hard-earned on the line, on top of last weeks $15k...

next stop, partner, and "An immediate Phase III with near term approval potential"


----------



## worthind (14 June 2011)

*Partner imminent*

so why are the Directors buying...

the last hiv drug licensed to a partner was Festinavir to BMS in Dec 2010...
Festinavir is a very similar and complimentary drug to ATC

interesting time frame for licensing Festinavir by BMS, note the dates below...
new data announced 13 Sept, that presumably forms the basis for a deal...
deal announced 20 Dec 2010
I make that about 3 months!

AVX announces FDA outcome 28 March
and partners about 3 months later...
June-July 2011

Festinavir, a risky early stage drug with saftey concerns = $300M
ATC a safe as houses, short and cheap to market drug with an additional $100M spent on it = $500M
share price = ?, dare I say 'priceless'



New NRTI Festinavir Exhibits Good Anti-HIV Activity and Safety in Phase 1b/2a Study
13th of September 2010

Bristol-Myers Squibb, Oncolys complete license agreement for festinavir
20th of December 2010


----------



## Purple XS2 (23 March 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Progress reported in getting European approval of a path to market for ATC. Gave a boost to the SP.

So I sold what I had. I'm taking the view that there's more time and money to go under the bridge before the ATC (apricitibane - the anti HIV drug) story is told in full.

And I'm still not confident as to what that story will be ...

That being said, I'm looking to re-enter at lower levels. Yesterday's close of 0.038 seems a tad optimistic, for the time being.

P.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (27 March 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Does anyone have a view about the best case scenario value for this stock in the next 6 months, assuming it is chugging along at this rate?  

Assuming no takeover, and a partnering or royalty agreement is reached, what sales do you reckon will come with ATC and what value does that put on stock price?

Over or under 10 cents?  Let's factor out the outrageous scenario where it turns out to be the cure for HIV/AIDS.


----------



## Purple XS2 (25 October 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Well, 6 months have gone by and the results (to stumpy's question) are in: Avexa spent the intervening period slumping to less than half of it's measly value of mid 0.030's, and now, glory be: it's back to 0.033.

Avexa's recent annual report continues the company song: that they're assiduously looking for a path to market for their AIDS treatment drug Apricitibane "ATC".

Meanwhile, there's been a bit of news on another of their prospects, an anti-bacterial.

Avexa's pretty well cashed up: some $18 Million.

The interesting thing is, the biotech sector is capable of pricing a company below its cash value if it is perceived that the management is tilting at windmills and wasting cash in the process. (Progen: PGL, being a case in point).

So Avexa's recent regain of lost ground can be attributed to what: that the belief is there that the path to market for ATC has got real legs? If the happy day emerges where the lights all turn green, Avexa would probably be worth about ... take your pick ... 4-fold current market cap? (currently about $28 Mill)

Well, we all want to believe it. Wonder how long before we all lose the faith?

Discl: holding as of today's close, but trading in & out.


----------



## Gryphonik (2 November 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

This stock is my weakness... bought it originally what seems like a lifetime ago under 10c and rode it up to nearly a $1.... have made some money on this, and lost some money on this.. 

I want to believe... but you seriously have to question if ANYTHING will ever come of this story... 

anyway - i continue to hold, and im a touch suprised as to the trading halt today??? it looks like AVX is investing in something?  

so perhaps that $18M solid cash position is about to be eroded... leading to another round of tedious capital raisings... im hoping they got the announcement wrong and its about an investment BY someone in AVX... ie partner!

unlikely...




Purple XS2 said:


> Well, we all want to believe it. Wonder how long before we all lose the faith?
> 
> Discl: holding as of today's close, but trading in & out.


----------



## Sdajii (5 November 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

I cut my trading teeth on AVX, I took some really stupid risks during an extremely volatile time for AVX when I had absolutely no idea what I was doing. Fortunately luck was on my side to an extreme degree, I traded in and out several times per week, only lost money once or twice, multiplied my money by a factor of about five within less than two months (taking me to having more money than I'd ever had before then) and that really got me into trading, which got me into investing.

Obviously I have a soft spot for AVX, but I haven't held any for about four years now. They don't seem to have anything worth getting too excited about. At one point I was very sure ATC would go to market and I'd make a fortune, but if it ever happens it won't be soon.


----------



## suhm (5 November 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Don't think anyone would have seen this one coming. Biotech company with a failed HIV anti retroviral with a market cap of 27 million spends 4mil USD on a coal mine in the US and lends them a further 6mil USD at 6%. Bizzarre.

Related party transaction as well as the coal mine is part owned by Johnathan Lim avexa's largest shareholder with 17% of the company


----------



## Purple XS2 (5 November 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Ahh, Avexa: never boring.

At least they got the timing right: this latest weirdness comes just after the October competition close, so _Yay, I won a win!_

This morning however I dumped. A USA coalmine may prove to be the stroke of boldness and genius, and I'll always watch Avexa's future with interest, but the coal deal says to me that the biotech world just doesn't see commercial merit in Avexa's cupboard.

And it's news to me that there's a shortage of investment capital to fire up USA coal mines. If there was a greenfield opportunity closer to home, and sufficient expertise on the board to gauge the risks and benefits (take for example Allied Health - AHZ - who have several figures from Fortescue Metals), I'd say: yeah, okay...

But my assumption for now is that if an idea looks boneheaded, it isn't necessarily but probably is.

otherwise it's just the first step in turning Avexa into a miner per se.

So for now, bon voyage. Until I come back.


----------



## Country Lad (5 November 2012)

*Re: AVX - Avexa Limited*

Interesting timing.

Coal consumption in US is declining,






coal stockpiles are increasing,






coal export from USA is increasing






and coal prices are falling as US exports compete with Aus, Indonesia & other exporter countries.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## amw76 (30 August 2014)

*Avexa Phase III*

I have been holding Avexa (AVX) since 2006, stock has not performed well since my initial investments which have whittled away to almost nothing. I have been reading that they are preparing for ATC phase III trial, I have always believed if this was to happen then there is a good opportunity for this company. Whats everyone's thoughts on this stock?


----------



## System (12 December 2016)

On December 12th, 2016, Avexa Limited (AVX) changed its name and ASX code to Novita Healthcare Limited (NHL).


----------



## greggles (10 September 2018)

Novita Healthcare announced this morning that it has received classification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for TALI Train, opening the door for the product to be launched in the United States.

TALI Train is the Company's lead digital therapeutic delivered as a drug free tool to assist in childhood development. Designed for children aged 3-8 years of age with attention difficulties, both clinical and non-clinical, as an early intervention with attention problems being the most commonly reported childhood difficulty.

The FDA has classified TALI Train as a Class 2 medical device, exempt. This means the treatment can now be sold in the U.S. without the need to conduct further clinical trials or submit a 510k application.

Today's announcement has given the NHL share price a nice lift. It is currently up 21.21% to 4c and is sitting right at support/reisistance. There was a huge day of volume on 31 August that followed the release of their FY18 financial results. It looks like a lot of sellers got taken out then as the share price did not see too much movement.

NHL appears to be at a bit of a crossroads at the moment. Hard to be sure what it's going to do from here but more good news regarding TALI Train will be sure to send it further north.


----------



## barney (24 October 2019)

A year later and the news on TALi Detect finally came through.  The market makers certainly took the opportunity to get involved

_This significant development allows for patient reimbursement for the TALi Detect attention screening program under CPT code 961463 with the determination provided by The Pinnacle Health Group_


----------



## barney (25 October 2019)

barney said:


> The market makers certainly took the opportunity to get involved




Currently up another 50% today to 0.041 on big Volume  …… DNH.   Hope someone does


----------



## barney (25 October 2019)

This could go again on Monday given today's price behaviour but I'd be inclined to take some off the table if it gaps at the open.

 I don't chase so purely entertainment value for me 

4.5X Bagger in two days; not bad if you can find them.


----------



## jonnycage (28 October 2019)

got back in on Thursday after being a long Avexa holder. interesting times


----------



## bigdog (30 October 2019)

The Novita Healthcare Ltd (ASX: NHL) share price is now up around 4.5x or 350% since last week.

Is an early learning childhood technology business reported and its TALi Detect platform could be delivered via the the U.S. Reimbursement Code system.

TALi Detect is described as a ‘digital attention deficit screening program’ that helps treat children with attention deficit disorder.

NHLreports  that TALi Detect will now be deployed in the U.S. by Duke University Psychology, Neuroscience and Medical Centre across approximately 2,000 children.






629


----------



## explod (30 October 2019)

Well done johnnycage, look at it go.


----------



## barney (31 October 2019)

This one is still very interesting …. 

I don't have time unfortunately to look too close … however another +$16 million dollars worth of shares were traded today with the Stock initially gapping a little higher but closing back inside the upper end of yesterdays high range/high Volume bar.

Probably a good Stock to learn something from over the next week or two but it will likely get harder to read ...

If I did hold (I don't), I would probably consider taking a few dollars off the table if it jumps back towards the 6.5-6.6 cent level in the short term  ….. I am a sook however


----------



## bigdog (1 November 2019)

My pick for the  November tipping (I do not own)

Doing great on the first day!!






761


----------



## barney (1 November 2019)

bigdog said:


> My pick for the  November tipping (I do not own)
> 
> Doing great on the first day!!




Certainly on a roll.  I believe it is @jonnycage shout


----------



## explod (1 November 2019)

One can but merely gasp in wonder. Where's GG, why can't we do this.


----------



## bigdog (1 November 2019)

Ist day of November comp and wow +53%

Did have a high of $0.098 today (+69%)

Could be my first win for monthly comp!







Well done johnnycage for buying early in the week


----------



## galumay (1 November 2019)

The latest stonk, all the baggies are swarming over it, FOMO/MOMO gone mad.

Well done to those who took a position before the explosion! How on earth do you decide on an exit with something as disconnected from fundamentals??!!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2019)

I'm lost for words.  A video game for kids with ADHD.  It's wrong on every level.

All they're doing is substituting addictive screen time for stimulant meds like Ritalin.  Then they observe kids are more settled after they indulge their addiction.  Indulge _*any *_addiction and you'll feel better in the short term -- DUH!  Not only is it idiotic, it's harmful.

Does it work?  Sure it does, but at what cost?  Imagine these kids when they grow up.  They start their first job and tell their boss they have to play games or stare at their phone a few hours a day just to cope?

The stock will probably perform well because there's a lot of bad parenting out there and a lot of messed up kids as a result.  No one likes to blame the parents, but that's usually the cause.  *Not enough time and not enough love*.  Kids acting out?  Quick, get the iPad!  The "professionals" they use to research and spruik such trash should be ashamed of themselves.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2019)

ADHD.

It's a genetic disorder! It's mobile phone towers! It's food allergies! it dust mite! It's ... [insert bull**** excuse for ADHD].  It's _anything_ but the parents.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4710942/


----------



## barney (5 November 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm lost for words.  A video game for kids with ADHD.  It's wrong on every level.




I have no idea but you could well be right Gringo ….. Curiously, do you think/believe the owners/developers of this system could have less than ethical objectives for their input?? …. and if so, your reasons/assessment etc for your "assessment"?? … Just asking


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2019)

barney said:


> Curiously, do you think/believe the owners/developers of this system could have less than ethical objectives for their input??




I wouldn't think so.  But in my opinion, you could achieve the same therapeutic effect by sitting a kid on a pokies machine.  Absorb their attention in flashing lights and sounds, and guess what...?  They settle down!   

Just like a pensioner with a cup full of 10c coins.  Fully absorbed in the task, fully zombied out.  Wonderful therapy... *NOT*.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2019)

I'm sorry but I can't leave this alone. 

'Tali Train' represents 25 years of research at Monash University!!    Oh, those geeks and their "research"!

Why not just play 'Call of Duty' shoot-em-up?  At least that's fun.   

https://neurosciencenews.com/focus-video-gaming-8513/


----------



## barney (5 November 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I wouldn't think so.  But in my opinion, you could achieve the same therapeutic effect by sitting a kid on a pokies machine.  Absorb their attention in flashing lights and sounds, and guess what...?  They settle down!
> 
> Just like a pensioner with a cup full of 10c coins.  Fully absorbed in the task, fully zombied out.  Wonderful therapy... *NOT*.




Meant to "like" your earlier post …. (done now!) …. I suspect your "slightly cynical" observation may well be close to the money

NHL is an interesting Stock on many levels .. it will be interesting to see how it all pans out


----------



## Knobby22 (14 November 2019)

Peter and Diana Diamond whoever they are happy sellers, have taken their 800K and run. What a win.
Question is whether you've peaked too early on this one Big Dog.


----------



## barney (14 November 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Peter and Diana Diamond whoever they are happy sellers, have taken their 800K and run. What a win.




Thanks for the heads up Knobby ….

I always like to look a bit deeper when that kind of info is pointed out

Peter and Diana were in fact NHL's Major Shareholder for some time.  They even bought another 5 million shares in the recent cap raise at around 1 cent!

If I'm reading the dates/days on the Sub/Holder anns. etc I suspect P and D actually started selling a few around 29th September (just after the cap raise where they had purchased more.)

Given that info, and at face value ….. It could be surmised that they were unlikely privy to anything sinister, and the ensuing price spike simply gave them an opportunity to cash in even further.

My suspicious alter ego in the back of my brain (loose description) … suggests.

They may well have known of the impending post cap raise push about to transpire, and sold a few early at a low price to simply cover their tracks should ASIC ask questions (smart on their behalf.. and unlikely on ASIC's behalf!!)

I'd suggest they are currently on a sailboat to the Maldives sipping expensive cocktails

They actually still hold 30 million shares (4.62%) of the Co. but could lose all those for nothing (unlikely) and continue on their sailboat to the Maldives with minimal impact!

The Chart shows the Selling points …. Everyone can make up their own minds


----------



## PatrickBateman62 (17 November 2019)

The medical-technological landscape is changing. Apple apps can be a form of medicine. Who would have thought? Pharmaceutical company NHL has created an app TALi to combat attention deficits in children. This medicine is more effective than Ritalin. Find out why NHL stock rose by 1100% in 2 weeks. 

https://youth-investment-group.com/2019/11/16/why-did-nhl-skyrocket-by-1100-in-2-weeks/


----------



## barney (17 November 2019)

PatrickBateman62 said:


> Find out why NHL stock rose by 1100% in 2 weeks.




Its a fair point PB ….. The Chart cannot be discounted … I'm just peeved that I wasn't on it  lol


----------



## jonnycage (27 November 2019)

$6.2M placement completed at 6.2cents.  Lots of news coming up


----------



## bigdog (27 November 2019)

ASX announcement 26/11/2019 10:48:24 AM Chairman's Address to Shareholders (uploaded)



jonnycage said:


> Lots of news coming up



Looking forward the news coming!!

Encouraging dealing with Vict Education Dept

I might help me improve in the November tipping!











666


----------



## jonnycage (18 December 2019)

back up yearly stock comp pick - and presuming it hits 10cents by the end of the year   revenue and partnership announcements just around the corner


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 December 2019)

and a tip sheet writes some contrary opinion, then NHL denies, and, whoops, down a cent. which is 15%


----------



## jonnycage (27 December 2019)

Happily accumulating at these levels. Spec stocks and rumours go hand in hand. Purchasing the fear. Also my selection for Jan tipping Comp


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 December 2019)

and, of course, a change "_to align the company's name with its flagship TALi software program" _that will _"strengthen the value proposition for the business".
_
 Effective from 30 Dec 2019, the company will become *TALi Digital Ltd  *with an ASX code* TD1*


----------



## jonnycage (27 December 2019)

As voted by the share holders some time ago yes  groundbreaking


----------



## System (30 December 2019)

On December 30th, 2019, Novita Healthcare Limited (NHL) changed its name and ASX code to TALI Digital Limited (TD1).


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## jonnycage (15 January 2020)

Google For Education Partner certification achievedHIGHLIGHTS▪Significant step forward in the expansion of TALi Detect and TALi Train on a global basis particularly into the highly lucrative US education market▪The Company is now part of the Google for Education Integrated Solutions Initiative meaning TALi Detect and TALi Train products will be promoted through co-marketing activities and partnership branding support▪TALi Detect and TALi Train to operate on all Google-based touch screen devices in addition to current touchscreen iOS and Android devices▪TALi platform has full integration with Google Classroom▪Google dominates U.S. education sector with >55% of U.S. schools using Google products (Google Chromebooks +60%market share in the U.S.) ▪Globally, over 90 million students, teachers and administrators use G-Suite for Education while more than 30 million students use Google Chromebooks


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## jonnycage (28 January 2020)

quarterly update due with some results from Trials ahead


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## jonnycage (26 February 2020)

been taken to with a baseball bat over the last couple of weeks.  fundamentals haven't change. still holding
and have topped up.


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## jonnycage (26 March 2020)

Positive Test results
Page 1of 2ASX Announcement26March2020MARKET UPDATE TALiDETECTassessment yields positiveresults HIGHLIGHTSStrongTALiDETECTearly release program resultsResults of first 1000school-age children tested as part of Victorian in-school assessments and early release program analysed oResults confirm13.86% of assessed children may requireattention enhancement assistance (which exceeds the internal Company benchmark and isin the acceptable range of comparable research)1oApproximately 5000additional students have or soon will undertake in-school assessment using the programwith the Company now acceleratingthemarketing of the TALi platform2TALi Digital Ltd (ASX: TD1) (TALi or the Company), a leading early childhood technology business targeting attention in children through its breakthrough TALi platform, is pleased to provide these initial results from the early release program. Tali Detect –Initial results highlight program works in a real-life setting Since the commencement of the early access program in October 2019, TALiDETECT has been deployed to children primarily aged 5to 7and in the Victorian public education system to test the product and validate the product model.3Of those, the first 1086school-age children who have used TALiDETECT-84% from a school setting (across 10 schools), 2% from clinics and 14% from home -has now been analysed.From the data compiled by the Company to date, ~13% of children were identified as having a higher level of inattentiveperformance when compared with average age and gender-matched peers in our normative sample of Australian children.Importantly,data from the first 1000 school-aged children analysed is comparable with estimates compiled by a range of academics4who have estimated:“Symptoms of inattention, even those falling short of formal diagnosis of Attention-deficit/HyperactivityDisorder (ADHD) are observed to be...3 to 15%5in community samples


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## jonnycage (1 April 2020)

CHINA TRADEMARK FOR TALI
• TALi has been successfully registered as a trademark in China which covers its TALi Train and TALi Detect products
• Trademark increases IP portfolio protection and potential for increased partner discussions with reputable Chinese institutions and organisations
• ~1 in every 100 children in China having autism spectrum disorder (ASD).1 Equates to ~24.9 million children or 1% of 249 million children in China between the ages of 0-14. 2
• Language translation engine already built for seamless translation initially to Mandarin
• Activating quality assurance (QA) with China-based QA personnel so deployment of TALi in Mandarin can commence in line with


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## barney (1 April 2020)

jonnycage said:


> been taken to with a baseball bat over the last couple of weeks.  fundamentals haven't change. still holding
> and have topped up.




Well done JC …… Nice to see someone pick a bottom and get rewarded for their persistence. 

ps. … Is it your shout??  … Bourbon and coke thanks


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## jonnycage (1 April 2020)

barney said:


> Well done JC …… Nice to see someone pick a bottom and get rewarded for their persistence.
> 
> ps. … Is it your shout??  … Bourbon and coke thanks




Haha sure mate, that’s my drink also so coming right up


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## barney (1 April 2020)

jonnycage said:


> Haha sure mate, that’s my drink also so coming right up




Sweet!! ….. Now bear in mind I can usually only afford Cougar and Jim Beam white (yes I'm normal), but if you were to offer me a dabble of "Old Forester" (just looked t up … had never heard of it till now!) I would be quite happy to partake


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## jonnycage (27 April 2020)

Page 1of 2ASX Announcement21April2020ASX ReleaseU.S. PATENT FURTHER STRENGTHENS TALI DIGITAL PLATFORM•Granting of U.S. patent further secures TALi’s intellectual property (IP) positionin one of the world’slargest markets for inattention•Provides extensive protection forTechnology associated withcurrent TALi products oAssessment and trainingproducts•Strengthens TALi’scompetitive advantage, allowing the Company to accelerate all of its previously stated strategic objectives and opportunities•Further patents are expected to be granted in due course, with the US Patent providing a strong precedent for applications in other jurisdictions1.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 May 2020)

just caught an ad for Tali on TV 5pm slot.

It sounded silly, like funeral insurance. I'm not sure it worked for me, but then I'm not the target audience.


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## jonnycage (5 May 2020)

to be fair you have only been Negative to the stock, so safely ignored. cheers


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## jonnycage (29 June 2020)

Research collaboration to expand on TALi’s research initiatives to generate international clinical evidence for its ground breaking, game-based technology platform that measures and develops attention skills in early childhood
• The Duke Clinical Research Institute (DCRI), part of the Duke University School of Medicine, is the world’s largest academic clinical research organisation
• Scott Kollins, PhD, Professor in Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Duke and Co-Director of the DCRI’s Digital Health Solutions group, to serve as research primary investigator


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## frugal.rock (29 July 2020)

Solid spurt after solid consolidation.
Interesting....  dunno why though.
3 month chart.


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## jonnycage (30 July 2020)

some great volume through yesterday also. Quarterly due shortly. Potentially some revenue coming through


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## barney (30 July 2020)

Looks like a few Punters got spooked this morning and sold into the open (Down 14%) .... either stale bulls or nervous holders who bought the highs yesterday.

Either way, I think the 2.9 cent level should hold and it will tick higher over the next few days ... 

Just as I typed it got sold off to 2.7  .... mmm


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## Dona Ferentes (31 July 2022)

since listing .... where is the fun?


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## barney (31 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> since listing .... where is the fun?




Fair call DF .... and the main reason I'm generally drawn to buying extended lows, or retracements from "unusual" spikes off recent lows.

There have been a couple of reasonable trades on TD1 for anyone following it closely (not me), but it has been a tough one to time for sure.

Hopefully @jonnycage did ok out of some of those moves?


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