# Jim Rogers - Agriculture... next 10-15 years



## pattyp (10 May 2008)

Jim Rogers - Agriculture... next 10-15 years

Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in the 1970s.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/americas/2008/05/09/155601/Jim-Rogers.htm

"Agriculture is going to be one of the most exciting growth industries in the world for the next 10-15 years," he added. "Conservative" agricultural banks such as Rabobank NV "will have their sun now," he said.

Rice prices have to go much higher before supply rises, he said. Rice at times "in the dark recesses of history," adjusted for inflation, was much higher than now, he said.

Inventories are "very low" and "nobody's becoming a rice farmer these days," Rogers said. "Young Chinese haven't gone into rice farming in the last 30 years. They've headed to Shanghai and gone down to the new stock exchange or commodities exchange and that's true in most parts of the world."


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## Muschu (11 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> Jim Rogers - Agriculture... next 10-15 years
> 
> Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in the 1970s.
> 
> ...




Thanks Pat - very interesting.  I've read a number of comments to this effect in recent months.
Question from a novice---- which are the bigger / established companies on the ASX which are agriculture-based and in a position to benefit.
IPL comes to mind of course but who else?
Regards
R


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## JeSSica WaBBit (11 May 2008)

"I've started to think about buying base metals," Rogers said. "I'm not buying base metals yet but I've noticed some of them are down a lot and if they continue to consolidate, I will probably be buying base metals."

Thanks for the article Pat, slightly off topic but in reference to his comments, do you now which base metals he is referring to?


JW


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## pattyp (11 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> which are the bigger / established companies on the ASX which are agriculture-based and in a position to benefit.





Hi Rick62,

Minemakers (MAK) is my stock for the next 2yrs+.... Shaping up to be simply awesome.... They have the largest know under-developed JORC Phosphate deposit in Aus (So far anyway).

http://www.minemakers.com.au/projects-nt-wonarah.php

Reward (RWD) is the ONLY PotAsh Corp with a JORC in Australia... Its production targets will be enough to supply all of australias PotAsh needs. Aus currently is import dependent when it comes to PotAsh.

http://www.rewardminerals.com/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1

Also there is Wesfarmers(WES), NUFARM(NUF).... Also GCR is one to check out.

These are the big (real) ones... There are loads of specs around but IMO they are mostly garbage hype driven PR machines.

Good Luck,
Pat


Rew


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## pattyp (11 May 2008)

JeSSica WaBBit said:


> do you now which base metals he is referring to?




Hi JessW - I dont know what specific metals he is speaking about... But I know that Bauxite/Aluminium is becoming hot and is lining up to rocket over the next 12-24months...

Check out the BAU thread for my BIAS opinion - As always DYOR...

Pat


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## Trembling Hand (11 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> "Agriculture is going to be one of the most exciting growth industries in the world for the next 10-15 years," he added. "Conservative" agricultural banks such as Rabobank NV "will have their sun now," he said.






Muschu said:


> which are the bigger / established companies on the ASX which are agriculture-based and in a position to benefit.




Here's one for you that you may not of considered. thinking out of the box... NAB.. biggest Ag bank in Oz and made some OS Ag purchases recently


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## Muschu (11 May 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Here's one for you that you may not of considered. thinking out of the box... NAB.. biggest Ag bank in Oz and made some OS Ag purchases recently




No I hadn't thought of that at all.  What an interesting observation.  Any idea what proportion of its business is Ag-related?

Thanks Pat for the further elaboration.  NUF has been in the back of my mind but hadn't worked its way to the frontal lobes yet.  

R


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## michael_selway (11 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> Jim Rogers - Agriculture... next 10-15 years
> 
> Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in the 1970s.
> 
> ...




But is food itself considered a scarce resource? i mean rice stocks may be low but other foods (even new ones) may make up for it? so a change in eating habits (substitute) rather than a bull market may happen for agriculture commodities?

thx

MS


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## pattyp (11 May 2008)

The issue is broad based... Anything that we grow on farms and eat or feed to cattle is falling victim to the billions of new mouths in Asia that want to eat apples, carrots, cheese and red meat... not insects. 

The 1-billion mouths that have eaten the good stuff for the last 100yrs (And haven't shared) are now faced with sharing the good stuff with another 2-billion mouths from India and China... Food supplies simply can not handle this sudden move and there is an estimated 40yrs of under-development in Agriculture. 

We sell them our minerals at top prices... Heck, they deserve to have shiny toasters too right? 

While we all have enjoyed watching the 3rd world nations boom and move towards 1st world standards we forgot to think about one critical thing that they will also start to absorb and want/need more then the shiny toaster... that being food! 

Go to Google and run a few searches on the subject - Also stop by the UN Ag department and checkout the causes for this (potential) disaster.

http://www.fao.org/

Pat


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## Muschu (11 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> Hi Rick62,
> 
> Minemakers (MAK) is my stock for the next 2yrs+.... Shaping up to be simply awesome.... They have the largest know under-developed JORC Phosphate deposit in Aus (So far anyway).
> 
> ...




Question for you Pat, if that's Ok --- are there any analysts' reports out on either of these companies that you're aware of?  I don't know how "blue chip" they are and, as a retiree, am not into higher risk.

The analyses I've seen of NFU are not great, although [as a novice] the chart looks OK.

Thanks again

Rick


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## pattyp (11 May 2008)

MAK and Reward are higher risk then BHP or WOW... Definitely not Blue Chip. 

But they have the absolute makings of Blue Chips (In my opinion - DYOR).

Listen to these...

Minemakers MD Andrew Drummand Investor Preso (Excellent)
http://www.brr.com.au/event/44996
http://www.minemakers.com.au/downloads/200804MinemakersLimitedbw.pdf

Reward Investor Presentation
http://www.rewardminerals.com/index.php?option=com_remository&Itemid=3&func=startdown&id=103

Reward Broker Analysis
http://www.rewardminerals.com/index.php?option=com_remository&Itemid=3&func=fileinfo&id=109

Fertilizer Industry Of Australia
http://www.fifa.asn.au/default.asp?V_DOC_ID=771

International Fertilizer Association
http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/

IFA Med-Term Outlook
http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/publicat/PDF/2007_istanbul_ifa_summary.pdf


REALLY do your home work before you jump in on these - But I think its worth your while because it will also help you get more of a grasp on Ag and Fert situation globally.

This is not a recommendation, its only an idea... I'm NOT a professional adviser!

Good Luck!
Pat


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## Muschu (11 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> This is not a recommendation, its only an idea... I'm NOT a professional adviser!
> 
> Good Luck!
> Pat



All taken on board Pat.  Thanks.  
Do you think you could change your avatar however?  Already I know it's going to keep me awake tonight....
Cheers
Rick


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## pattyp (11 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> Do you think you could change your avatar however?




Ha ha ha - No Chance Rick... I am 'The Incredible Hulk' ! ! !

Pleasant dreams mate 

Take Care,
Pat


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## pattyp (12 May 2008)

I probably should have included this as another point for research... And also for those who want to keep up-to-date on the trends, etc.

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html

Pat


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## Schmuckie (12 May 2008)

Absolutely we'll see an increase in the need for fertilizer in the future, as less land and fewer farmers have to feed more people.  But ... and here's a little bit of food for thought  on the subject.

Right now Canada is being caught up in a potash bubble.  Saskatchewan, and to a lesser extent Manitoba, have been called the "Saudi Arabia of potash".  That's actually a fair comment, the flat prairie land is an ancient ocean bottom with huge reserves of the mineral.  The existing giant producers of potash, such as Potash Corporation of Saskatchewn Inc. and the Mosaic Company have reserves of 200 years or more.  With the recent demand for the commodity, Potash Corp. has seen its stock price go from less than $20 to more than $200 in five years.  This is incentive enough for other hopefuls to come in and pick up huge land positions, and some of them were picking up their positions while everything was relatively quiet.

Over the next few years, these hopefuls will be coming on stream.  Some of them have far bigger land positions than Potash Corp. and Mosaic.  Soon, we'll see a flood of potash on the market and lower prices for the commodity.

That being said, on weakness I did pick up a few shares of one of the hopefuls with a huge land position next to Mosaic and a CEO with a track record of increasing shareholder value.  I don't expect this hopeful to ever produce one pound of potash.  Why would I invest?  Because they're a takeover target under either of two scenarios:  either Mosaic or Potash Corp. takes them out to prevent market flooding; or one of the big boys not currently in the potash business, such as BHP or one of the others, will want to get a stake in the business and go for a company with proven reserves.

For you Aussies thinking of investing in your local potash company, I think it's a great idea (sure beats shipping the stuff in by boat), but you have to realize that the price of the commodity will fall over the next few years as huge new supplies are coming out of the ground in other parts of the world.  

Just my


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## MRC & Co (12 May 2008)

michael_selway said:


> But is food itself considered a scarce resource? i mean rice stocks may be low but other foods (even new ones) may make up for it? so a change in eating habits (substitute) rather than a bull market may happen for agriculture commodities?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




But a change in eating habits is sure to take quiet some time to take effect.

On another note, but still relevant, has anybody seen the news on honey bees and their decimation...........?  Perhaps some relevance to food with requirements of pollenation.


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## Schmuckie (12 May 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> On another note, but still relevant, has anybody seen the news on honey bees and their decimation...........?  Perhaps some relevance to food with requirements of pollenation.




I was talking to the owner of an apiary at an agricultural trade show a while back.  He mentioned that there are some bees that are more resistant to the mites and some of the apiaries are switching over.  Sorry, I can't remember which type are more resistant.


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## MRC & Co (12 May 2008)

Ah k, yeh I think I might have read African bees are more resilient and Australian bees are the worst........


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## chinabull (21 June 2008)

The ELEMENTS Rogers Ag Index ETN might be a good investment for growth in agriculture.

Symbol is RJA on the NYSE.

-- chinabull
http://JimRogersProject.wordpress.com


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## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2008)

Potash fetches record price

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=957890ea-3a6d-4024-903a-da2f7a34b790


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## Investor123 (28 August 2008)

Sugar is one of the alternative source of energy.

Falling oil price simply means that demand for alternative energy like sugar will be lowered. Rising US dollar is going to push down commodities prices including sugar.

According to CFTC data last week, hedge funds had decreased their long position in sugar futures. Net long positions fell by 5147 contracts, or 4% from a week earlier.


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