# A2M - The A2 Milk Company



## System (31 March 2015)

The a2 Milk Company™ is building a global business based on a differentiated, premium and branded portfolio of dairy and infant formula products supported by an integrated portfolio of intellectual property and a developing body of scientific evidence.

http://thea2milkcompany.com


----------



## VSntchr (31 March 2015)

The code certainly made me do a double-take 
Looks like numbers are the new trend for ASX companies...


----------



## So_Cynical (31 March 2015)

300+ million MC with revenue of around 100 million...like so many of these new stocks, trading with lots of expectation built into the price.


----------



## herzy (31 March 2015)

VSntchr said:


> The code certainly made me do a double-take
> Looks like numbers are the new trend for ASX companies...




Hahahahaha gold. 

I suppose that ticker could have been assigned a more appropriate company. Alas...


----------



## skc (31 March 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> 300+ million MC with revenue of around 100 million...like so many of these new stocks, trading with lots of expectation built into the price.




A2M is not a new IPO. It's just being dual listed here and has been on the NZX for some time.

Doesn't change the fact that PE is a bit high though.


----------



## So_Cynical (1 April 2015)

skc said:


> A2M is not a new IPO. It's just being dual listed here and has been on the NZX for some time.
> 
> Doesn't change the fact that PE is a bit high though.




Yes i looked at the NZX last night, thats where i got the numbers from...just saying that like a few other stocks, NAN, AKP, XRO, 1PG and im sure there are others, a lot of expectation has been priced in, 100's of millions of dollars worth of expectation.

Similar to GDY and CFU and a heap of other fallen stars.


----------



## Sdajii (1 April 2015)

I am a naive, sheltered, prudish fella who had to google A2M to see what you were on about. Strange choice of name indeed! Especially for a 'milk' company...



So_Cynical said:


> 300+ million MC with revenue of around 100 million...like so many of these new stocks, trading with lots of expectation built into the price.




Am I misreading you? A revenue of $100 million and a market cap of $300 million sounds insanely underpriced, unless that's not P/A or it's gross revenue with a small margin.


----------



## So_Cynical (1 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> Am I misreading you? A revenue of $100 million and a market cap of $300 million sounds insanely underpriced, unless that's not P/A or it's gross revenue with a small margin.




Ahh yes i see what you mean, will have to double check tomorrow...just had a 15 minute look at them yesterday.


----------



## skc (1 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> I am a naive, sheltered, prudish fella who had to google A2M to see what you were on about. Strange choice of name indeed! Especially for a 'milk' company...




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A2_milk



> A2 milk is cow's milk that contains only the A2 type of beta-casein protein rather than the more common A1 protein commonly found in regular milk. A2 milk is branded by the A2 Milk Company and sold mostly in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.






Sdajii said:


> Am I misreading you? A revenue of $100 million and a market cap of $300 million sounds insanely underpriced, unless that's not P/A or it's gross revenue with a small margin.




$100m is REVENUE. Without knowing the margin it's not indicative of whether it's over or underpriced.

For 2013, A2M recorded $94m revenue, $4.12m profit after tax with $20.2m cash on hand... according to company's annual report (in $NZ). So $300m market cap is probably a bit on the high side but growth was 48% that year. It's not unrealistic to see NPAT reaching $12-15m in a few years if the growth path continues, thereby justifying the current valuation.

Obviously a few things need to be right... like whether A2 Milk is actually better for you.


----------



## Sdajii (2 April 2015)

skc said:


> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A2_milk
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yeah, I know what A2 milk is, but A2M is still a funny choice of name, given the alternate meaning.

As I said, 'revenue' can be net or gross, and if that's not specified, a 'revenue' figure can't be used to calculate much.

Less than a 5% margin on an agricultural product sounds pretty slim and risky to me, but it makes more sense in relation to the market cap. Thanks for the figures. Obviously if they're still growing and developing that could change a lot.

Call me cynical, but this wanky trend of designer modern foods is crazy. I doubt there are health benefits associated with A2 milk over regular milk (except perhaps in an extraordinarily few people with allergies). Of course, all these ridiculous modern trendy foods may still be highly popular and lucrative, given the tendency of ridiculous modern western culture with a huge appetite for BS. People marvel over the quest to discover the secret of the Japanese diet giving them the world's highest longevity (duh! Lots of fish, low consumption of red meat, minimal food processing, and when they do eat meat they don't kid themselves into thinking the fat is bad, they love fatty cuts - keeping your calories low is important, cutting out fat is irrelevant for weight and deleterious for health). They miss the obvious and then have a quest for fat free sugar lollies and designer milk. But, stupid as it is, the market is there. Short to medium term it might do well, but in the long/very long term I think A2 milk will become a forgotten fad (of course, the company may well adapt over time and venture into other products, perhaps whatever is the new fad food down the track).
small portions and a low tendency to overeat, ye


----------



## skc (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> Yeah, I know what A2 milk is, but A2M is still a funny choice of name, given the alternate meaning.




I had to look up what that means... boy. That is a terrible choice. I can only assume that the good people at A2 Milk and the ASX have no idea that's what they've done. Perhaps there'd be a code change request down the track. I know I would.


----------



## Sdajii (2 April 2015)

skc said:


> I had to look up what that means... boy. That is a terrible choice. I can only assume that the good people at A2 Milk and the ASX have no idea that's what they've done. Perhaps there'd be a code change request down the track. I know I would.




I had to google it too being the naive little boy I am, but I would have thought someone with your name would be well familiar with it


----------



## So_Cynical (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> Less than a 5% margin on an agricultural product sounds pretty slim and risky to me, I doubt there are health benefits associated with A2 milk over regular milk




Its Milk, and thats what i kinda meant with the MC and revenue numbers, milk is a low margin product...im reasonably confident that there is evidence that many people (lactose intolerant etc) can benefit from consumption of A2 Milk.

-----

A2M - Jesus H Christ get your minds out of the gutter.


----------



## skc (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> I had to google it too being the naive little boy I am, but I would have thought someone with your name would be well familiar with it




Why? What does my name mean?


----------



## Sdajii (2 April 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> Its Milk, and thats what i kinda meant with the MC and revenue numbers, milk is a low margin product...im reasonably confident that there is evidence that many people (lactose intolerant etc) can benefit from consumption of A2 Milk.




After some brief googling I'm reasonably confident that there is no scientific evidence that A2 milk has any health benefit for anyone. The sort of mentality which would lead someone to think that the absence of a protein would be of benefit to people with an allergy to a type of sugar (lactose) is the sort of mentality which gives these myths credibility and makes them lucrative. But baseless as they may be, lucrative they sometimes are. Just looking at the gluten myth! That one actually does have an incredibly small percentage of the population who benefit from it, but a whole mass of people spend an incredible amount of money believing it is relevant to them.

SKC: I might have you mixed up with someone else, but someone on an investment forum (I thought it was this one) had the username SKC and had captions and stuff referring to themself as sexy kinky chick. Maybe it was a different person on a different forum.


----------



## skc (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> SKC: I might have you mixed up with someone else, but someone on an investment forum (I thought it was this one) had the username SKC and had captions and stuff referring to themself as sexy kinky chick. Maybe it was a different person on a different forum.




What the... 



Sdajii said:


> I had to google it too being the naive little boy I am, but I would have thought someone with your name would be well familiar with it




You are NOT a naive little boy!


----------



## Sdajii (2 April 2015)

skc said:


> What the...
> 
> 
> 
> You are NOT a naive little boy!




Terribly sorry, it was obviously a different person on a different investment forum, with a coincidentally similar name (with a different meaning, clearly!).

Call me naive or not, but I had no idea what A2M meant until I saw someone pointing it out in this thread, and had to google it.

Speaking of googling, I've done a bit more reading up about A2 milk. I was trained and worked as a geneticist for some years, I have studied chemistry and nutrition, and I have no doubt that A2 milk is nothing more than a gimmick. It is just a mutant form of the A1 protein (it's a little bit like having a bowl of fruit salad and switching places between one blueberry and one raspberry). The studies showing that A1 protein (the type without the more recent A2 mutation) were harmful were funded by the A2 companies, and involved injecting the A1 protein directly into the body, even directly into the nervous system of animals! Do that with any food and you're likely to end up with problems. Obviously I wouldn't recommending injecting A1 (or A2, or substance at all) into your body, but consuming it through your mouth is no different from A2.

A2 milk companies have already gone to court and plead guilty to charges of illegally presenting 'information'. I'd be pretty wary about investing in this or any A2 milk company, and would personally consider it highly unethical.

This also may be of interest: A1 and A2 milk are both common in various breeds of cattle all over the world, and in some areas A2 just happens to be common by accident. No one noticed or cared until people started testing for it. It would be quite easy to convert the entire dairy industry of the entire planet to A2, and if there actually was any benefit, that's exactly what would happen.


----------



## skc (2 April 2015)

herzy said:


> Hahahahaha gold.
> 
> I suppose that ticker could have been assigned a more appropriate company. Alas...






VSntchr said:


> The code certainly made me do a double-take
> Looks like numbers are the new trend for ASX companies...






Sdajii said:


> Terribly sorry, it was obviously a different person on a different investment forum, with a coincidentally similar name (with a different meaning, clearly!).
> 
> Call me naive or not, but I had no idea what A2M meant until I saw someone pointing it out in this thread, and had to google it.




OK.... one of these guys are dirty then 



herzy said:


> Speaking of googling, I've done a bit more reading up about A2 milk. I was trained and worked as a geneticist for some years, I have studied chemistry and nutrition, and I have no doubt that A2 milk is nothing more than a gimmick. It is just a mutant form of the A1 protein (it's a little bit like having a bowl of fruit salad and switching places between one blueberry and one raspberry). The studies showing that A1 protein (the type without the more recent A2 mutation) were harmful were funded by the A2 companies, and involved injecting the A1 protein directly into the body, even directly into the nervous system of animals! Do that with any food and you're likely to end up with problems. Obviously I wouldn't recommending injecting A1 (or A2, or substance at all) into your body, but consuming it through your mouth is no different from A2.
> 
> A2 milk companies have already gone to court and plead guilty to charges of illegally presenting 'information'. I'd be pretty wary about investing in this or any A2 milk company, and would personally consider it highly unethical.
> 
> This also may be of interest: A1 and A2 milk are both common in various breeds of cattle all over the world, and in some areas A2 just happens to be common by accident. No one noticed or cared until people started testing for it. It would be quite easy to convert the entire dairy industry of the entire planet to A2, and if there actually was any benefit, that's exactly what would happen.




Interesting. I suppose when it comes to marketing, perception is fact sometimes...


----------



## skyQuake (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> Speaking of googling, I've done a bit more reading up about A2 milk. I was trained and worked as a geneticist for some years, I have studied chemistry and nutrition, and I have no doubt that A2 milk is nothing more than a gimmick. It is just a mutant form of the A1 protein (it's a little bit like having a bowl of fruit salad and switching places between one blueberry and one raspberry). The studies showing that A1 protein (the type without the more recent A2 mutation) were harmful were funded by the A2 companies, and involved injecting the A1 protein directly into the body, even directly into the nervous system of animals! Do that with any food and you're likely to end up with problems. Obviously I wouldn't recommending injecting A1 (or A2, or substance at all) into your body, but consuming it through your mouth is no different from A2.
> 
> A2 milk companies have already gone to court and plead guilty to charges of illegally presenting 'information'. I'd be pretty wary about investing in this or any A2 milk company, and would personally consider it highly unethical.
> 
> This also may be of interest: A1 and A2 milk are both common in various breeds of cattle all over the world, and in some areas A2 just happens to be common by accident. No one noticed or cared until people started testing for it. It would be quite easy to convert the entire dairy industry of the entire planet to A2, and if there actually was any benefit, that's exactly what would happen.




Completely agree. I had some leisure time and read up on some scholarly articles (even the ones funded by A2).

In short, quoting the EFSA (European FDA)



> ... there is no scientific evidence that A2 milk has benefits over normal milk.[1]




.....


Having said that, the average consumer would not be so discerning: Look at what happened with the '_Permeate free_' tussle.
All it takes is a smart ad campaign to list some of the dubious health benefits and shoppers will mindlessly switch.

Heck, while I was scrolling through the website with a sneer on my face, I stumbled upon 'gentle on stomachs'.
And immediately thought about my occasional stomach-aches after drinking regular milk. Maybe I should try some of this great new innovative product. Right?

Placebo effect will take care of the rest 

Happy Easter all!


----------



## So_Cynical (2 April 2015)

skc said:


> What the...
> 
> 
> 
> You are NOT a naive little boy!




Where is the like button.

---------------------



Sdajii said:


> This also may be of interest: A1 and A2 milk are both common in various breeds of cattle all over the world, and in some areas A2 just happens to be common by accident. No one noticed or cared until people started testing for it. It would be quite easy to convert the entire dairy industry of the entire planet to A2, and if there actually was any benefit, that's exactly what would happen.




WOW, ok i thought that Jersey cattle were all A2..i will have to do some more digging over the weekend.

---------------------



skyQuake said:


> Completely agree. I had some leisure time and read up on some scholarly articles (even the ones funded by A2).
> 
> In short, quoting the EFSA (European FDA)




Without digging im assuming that the EFDA would support the EU dairy industry (status quo) worth a couple of billion annually? - would it not?


----------



## alicudi (2 April 2015)

Hi all

I am not an experienced share trader/share investor, but I am one person who has gained a lot of relief by switching to A2 milk so would like to comment a little on it.

If I drink normal Milk I snore very loud when I sleep and if I drink normal Milk say after 6pm I often bring it back up when I am sleeping.

When I drink the A2 Milk version neither of these issues happen.  I am in no way affiliated with the A2M company but do think they have a product that suits me perfectly for breakfast.  For me the A2 Milk product is fantastic.

Regards,

alicudi


----------



## Sdajii (2 April 2015)

alicudi said:


> Hi all
> 
> I am not an experienced share trader/share investor, but I am one person who has gained a lot of relief by switching to A2 milk so would like to comment a little on it.
> 
> ...




And there is no shortage of people who swear by tarot card readings, homoeopathy, and other adult alternatives to Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.

But if the placebo works for you and you can't be educated, hey, at least you're happy.

BS makes the world go around, it has for thousands of years and I can't see it changing in a hurry.


----------



## Sdajii (2 April 2015)

...and also, if you're going to claim to be making an independent post, don't use a profile which has never before posted!

...then again, anyone stupid enough to believe you will be stupid enough not to notice.


----------



## alicudi (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> and you can't be educated




Hi

I am not sure what you are getting at with this comment?  Either way please have a good day.

Regards,

alicudi


----------



## So_Cynical (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> ...and also, if you're going to claim to be making an independent post, don't use a profile which has never before posted!
> 
> ...then again, anyone stupid enough to believe you will be stupid enough not to notice.




WOW like he/she is a A2 spruker...from memory Sdajii were you not a climate denier?


----------



## alicudi (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> ...and also, if you're going to claim to be making an independent post, don't use a profile which has never before posted!
> 
> ...then again, anyone stupid enough to believe you will be stupid enough not to notice.




Hello Sir

With all due respect I have no idea why you are attacking me.  Yes my post is the first I have ever made on this forum, you may remember the day you made your first post as well if you think back hard enough?  Are you the troll maker on these forums?

For all the other people that read this thread I sincerely apologise for this thread turning into a personal attack on me.  I will no longer participate in this forum and will go back to my other investment forums where I also utilise the same forum username of "alicudi" if anyone wishes to communicate with me in a more humanely manner.

Regards,

alicudi
Richard Taranto
0458 133 024
richard@selectedge.com.au


----------



## The Falcon (2 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> ...and also, if you're going to claim to be making an independent post, don't use a profile which has never before posted!
> 
> ...then again, anyone stupid enough to believe you will be stupid enough not to notice.




You reckon A2M has paid a spruiker to come on and spruik the no snore factor to an audience of tens of ASFers to sell a couple of extra litres a week eh? happy dayz...makes sense


----------



## Miner (4 April 2015)

alicudi said:


> Hello Sir
> 
> With all due respect I have no idea why you are attacking me.  Yes my post is the first I have ever made on this forum, you may remember the day you made your first post as well if you think back hard enough?  Are you the troll maker on these forums?
> 
> ...




Dear Richard/Alicudi

We should welcome you for your first posting . I noticed we as forum participants instead bombarded you which you felt neglected and vindicated. I have no personal connection A2 milk excepting a user and a long timer participant of ASF. So as an avid participant, I apologize if we as a group let you feel that way.
It is the job for the system administrator to intervene but realizing today is Good Friday and we should rise on the occasion. I am offering my personal apology if any one of us in the forum posters hurt your sentiment.
Probably you please visit the necessary threads on ASF to know the rules of posting than making a knee jerk reaction to abandon it. Personally I have been feeling that ASF has lost its charm for a while and more people dsert it meaning , we will loose quality posting. It does not do any good to any one.

Returning to A2 milk - it is more expensive for sure. But I got strict instruction that I must buy that product because my daugher's falling hair has been stopped through using A2 milk. Do I have scientific proof ? No. It is the perception of a user. I have not been commissioned by any one to put this comment. In fact, by shopping A2 from IGA ironically I could save 50 cents on each 2 liters bottle than buying it from Woolworth or Coles.
The same applies when I buy Harvey Fresh Milk from IGA which is often $1 cheaper per 2 litres than the price for the same product in Woolly Coles.

See your next posting on ASF.

Regards


----------



## Sdajii (4 April 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> WOW like he/she is a A2 spruker...from memory Sdajii were you not a climate denier?




No, I am not a climate denier (sic).

I am also not a climate change denier. I am not even an anthropogenic climate change denier.


----------



## oldblue (4 April 2015)

Sdajii said:


> No, I am not a climate denier (sic).
> 
> I am also not a climate change denier. I am not even an anthropogenic climate change denier.




I appears that Sdajii denies that he/she is an anthropogenic climate change denier - whatever that is.


----------



## peter2 (9 October 2015)

A2M came up in my scans today as price jumped higher. I read that they've raised capital which is interesting as the company only listed six months ago. Evidently they didn't raise enough or they see their business potential is much bigger than anticipated and need more cash. 

Reading a few lines of their report they intend to expand their dairy products into the huge Chinese market. The potential is huge if they can be successful. Other companies successfully expanding into China are BAL and BKL. Their price charts are impressive for a trend trader.

I can always trade this using the charts, but the real question for investors is, Can the management team get it done?


----------



## pixel (9 December 2015)

peter2 said:


> A2M came up in my scans today as price jumped higher. I read that they've raised capital which is interesting as the company only listed six months ago. Evidently they didn't raise enough or they see their business potential is much bigger than anticipated and need more cash.
> 
> Reading a few lines of their report they intend to expand their dairy products into the huge Chinese market. The potential is huge if they can be successful. Other companies successfully expanding into China are BAL and BKL. Their price charts are impressive for a trend trader.
> 
> I can always trade this using the charts, but the real question for investors is, Can the management team get it done?




Very nice pickup, Peter 

I overlooked it at the time and only picked it up when I checked for some promising food stocks.
Let's hope the Chinese are lining up to buy formula for their little bundles of joy - especially now that they're allowed to have another one 





$1 appears to hold, so I started buying today. 
If it breaks below, I'm out. Upside: $1.15; blue sky beyond...


----------



## Calvin27 (18 December 2015)

Boom! $1.34. This baby single handedly fixed my portfolio to back in black. Went in so heavy on this haha.


----------



## silence (19 December 2015)

Calvin27 said:


> Boom! $1.34. This baby single handedly fixed my portfolio to back in black. Went in so heavy on this haha.




Same.

My portfolio was starting to look like a disaster (other than BAL) but a huge stake in A2M averaging about $1.09 buy price has now paid off. Hoping it will retrace to no lower than $1.25, and now the market knows it is going to make the cash, it might start a long term uptrend much like BAL!
Good luck in the coming weeks!


----------



## Ann (26 December 2015)

Sdajii said:


> And there is no shortage of people who swear by tarot card readings, homoeopathy, and other adult alternatives to Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
> 
> But if the placebo works for you and you can't be educated, hey, at least you're happy.
> 
> BS makes the world go around, it has for thousands of years and I can't see it changing in a hurry.




Not as warm a welcome to a first time poster as one would hope on this forum! 

However I am not a first time poster, I am pretty well educated, don't do Tarot readings, will confess to seeing  potential future in charts, I have only used Homeopathy once twenty years ago on my son who had glandular fever and the doctors could do no more. (It worked instantly by the way!).   I don't believe in adult alternatives to Santa Claus and Easter Bunny,  I am guessing the poster was alluding to organized/disorganized religious figures here? I have been around the block more than a few times and am also not particularly gullible.

I have been using A2 milk since the very early 2000s when it was very hard to find. I had been plagued with health issues and felt the change in milk may be of benefit. It helped. Just recently I decided to buy and try some milk which was not A2 just to see if there would be any difference. Not a good idea! Boy did I get sick! I quickly returned to A2. I know many people whose health has improved by changing to A2 or were simply unable to drink milk until they tried A2. A few have tried returning to A1 milk with very unhappy consequences. This stuff would not continue to sell and expand in popularity after so many years if it didn't get and maintain a regular custom. It is more expensive than standard milk so most people would drop it if there was no value for them.

No I don't own shares in the company and probably won't as it falls outside my criteria for stock selection.


----------



## skyQuake (30 December 2015)

And pop goes the weasel...

Not all trading days are made equal!!!


----------



## So_Cynical (30 December 2015)

And to think i was very keen on this at 55c and i let you idiots talk me out of it...


----------



## Rainman (30 December 2015)

Australian dairy and baby formula stocks are bubbles.  They will make good shorts if one can identify the catalyst that will make them burst.


----------



## howmanyru (30 December 2015)

Over hyped if you ask me, feels like the tulip bubble. 
I also can't understand how they got a patent for A2 milk.
It's like having a patent on all organic food globally.


----------



## CanOz (30 December 2015)

Rainman said:


> Australian dairy and baby formula stocks are bubbles.  They will make good shorts if one can identify the catalyst that will make them burst.




Bubbles tend to last longer than you think, better off riding the trend for now.


----------



## Rainman (30 December 2015)

howmanyru said:


> Over hyped if you ask me, feels like the tulip bubble...




I agree. These stocks - BAL, A2M, BGA - are not just over-hyped.  They currently form the most crowded trade on the ASX and have been inflated massively above their fundamentals.  It will not take much of a trigger to send the traders who have piled into these stocks fleeing for the exits at the first sight of trouble.  

I don't think that we are at that stage yet.  But when we are, I am going to take a small short position and then add to it if the panic sets in.


----------



## Rainman (30 December 2015)

CanOz said:


> Bubbles tend to last longer than you think, better off riding the trend for now.




If you are suggesting that I or anyone else buy into these stocks at these levels, then you have already drunk too much Kool-Aid.

At this stage, the position to take is short, not long, although I don't doubt that these stocks could go higher.   I can't say for how much higher they'll run but BAL is already trading at a P/E of 100, so I'd say not much higher.


----------



## skc (30 December 2015)

CanOz said:


> Bubbles tend to last longer than you think, better off riding the trend for now.




I've watching these names for some time and the price action was getting a bit silly especially in the past week or so. We saw the first meaningful sector-wide reversal today... look at A2M, BAL, BGA, FNP, BFC, AHF. They are also good candidates for locking in some profits for the small cap managers at year end.

If they open flat to slightly higher tomorrow it would be a decent short sectup. Another 10-12% fall however might offer a good bounce trade. 

Too bad I am on holidays so won't be trading them tomorrow.


----------



## Rainman (30 December 2015)

CanOz said:


> Bubbles tend to last longer than you think, better off riding the trend for now.




I would add also that, if you knew anything about the history of bubbles, you would know that those who ride them almost never know when to get off them.  Examples: 
Sir Isaac Newton and the South Seas bubble: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/.../How-not-to-invest-like-Sir-Isaac-Newton.html;


Stanley Druckenmiller and the dot-com bubble: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/08/18/reviewing-the-druckenmiller-decades/?_r=0.
Perhaps you will be the exception.


----------



## CanOz (31 December 2015)

Rainman said:


> I would add also that, if you knew anything about the history of bubbles, you would know that those who ride them almost never know when to get off them.  Examples:
> Sir Isaac Newton and the South Seas bubble: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/.../How-not-to-invest-like-Sir-Isaac-Newton.html;
> 
> 
> ...




I'm not even in them any more....I exited bal before my holiday...

Let's leave it at that shall we...


----------



## Rainman (31 December 2015)

CanOz said:


> I'm not even in them any more....I exited bal before my holiday...




If you're not in them anymore yourself, why are you proposing that others "ride the trend"?


----------



## CanOz (31 December 2015)

Rainman said:


> If you're not in them anymore yourself, why are you proposing that others "ride the trend"?




Look mate, this is going to slide into a debate about price action versus fundamentals, let's agree to let it go.


----------



## Rainman (31 December 2015)

CanOz said:


> Look mate, this is going to slide into a debate about price action versus fundamentals, let's agree to let it go.




No, it's not.  I am genuinely interested in hearing your reasons for selling out of a very bubbly stock, BAL, on the one hand and for simultaneously suggesting that others buy it on the other.

The logic of it fascinates me.


----------



## CanOz (31 December 2015)

Rainman said:


> No, it's not.  I am genuinely interested in hearing your reasons for selling out of a very bubbly stock, BAL, on the one hand and for simultaneously suggesting that others buy it on the other.
> 
> The logic of it fascinates me.




Check the BAL thread


----------



## tech/a (26 April 2017)

Was in Charts of Interest at $2.60


----------



## Boggo (26 April 2017)

tech/a said:


> Was in Charts of Interest at $2.60




and a top up signal on the weekly, there's two days to go still though.


----------



## RandomInvestor (11 May 2017)

Hey guys I am curious to get your opinions on the A2Milk company, I been looking at it and they got quite volatile earnings, I think this business has long term prospects but seems hard to value. Do you guys reckon the volatile earnings is because its still early? Like I know the company has been around since 2000 but isn't it from a few years ago they started to get big?


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2017)

Has been on charts of interest for months
Showed the breakout at $2.55
So that's 40% since then.

Opinion
It's been belting along.
If your a technical trader you would have Been in front
Procrastination is a profit killer.


----------



## Boggo (11 May 2017)

tech/a said:


> ...
> 
> Opinion
> It's been belting along.
> ...




Yes, a couple of these every month will do nicely


----------



## RandomInvestor (11 May 2017)

tech/a said:


> Has been on charts of interest for months
> Showed the breakout at $2.55
> So that's 40% since then.
> 
> ...



I meant in the term of the business economies what do you think?


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2017)

I have no interest in the business
Economics
90% of the time a trade is nothing more
Than a code and a chart.


----------



## RandomInvestor (11 May 2017)

tech/a said:


> I have no interest in the business
> Economics
> 90% of the time a trade is nothing more
> Than a code and a chart.



Oh you do technical analysis? I am not too familiar with it but know what it is. Just curious when you choose a company do you sell right after its gone up a dollar or? And do you diversify or put a large sum on a company which you think will go up then quickly sell it after a couple of hours?


----------



## Boggo (11 May 2017)

Triathlete said:


> As I have mentioned on a number of occassions the first place you are going to see problems with a stock is on a chart, regardless of what information is out in the public domain.




Triathlete summed it up there, a recent example was on the QIN thread yesterday when negative news came out.
I had that in a watchlist but the daily chart sentiment indicated that something was negative back in January.



tech/a said:


> I have no interest in the business
> Economics
> 90% of the time a trade is nothing more
> Than a code and a chart.




Same here, not particularly interested in what they do or what the numbers are for the last six months.
The only time I take notice of fundamentally based opinions is when StockDoctor lowers their opinion on a companies fundamental outlook, a recent example of that was VOC but the chart was already telling us there was an issue pending.

Just my


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2017)

RandomInvestor said:


> Oh you do technical analysis? I am not too familiar with it but know what it is. Just curious when you choose a company do you sell right after its gone up a dollar or? And do you diversify or put a large sum on a company which you think will go up then quickly sell it after a couple of hours?




Dependant on the individual and combined price bars
They tell a lot.
If you have a look at Charts of interest you'll see both ends 
Entry and exits


----------



## RandomInvestor (11 May 2017)

tech/a said:


> Dependant on the individual and combined price bars
> They tell a lot.
> If you have a look at Charts of interest you'll see both ends
> Entry and exits



Ah ok. I am not 100% sure but in a day for example trading, don't you barely make anything because of capital gains tax and brokerage fee?


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2017)

Brokerage is $6 in and out
Tax is a cost of business.
Minimise it at every opportunity
But don't take new opportunity because
Of the Tax implications'


----------



## RandomInvestor (17 July 2017)

I have a question, do you think the A2milk company has a competitive advantage with its products? It is one of the best know milks at least here in Australia and is used in stores even where I work and my previous job they have used this product. Not saying they do everywhere but I do believe that the large majority of stores do. I get the feeling though that the product can be easily copied. Difference between normal milk and a2milk is, a2Milk is cow's milk that contains the *A2* type of beta-casein protein rather than the more common A1 protein found in regular milk.

With this in mind some people have found it easier to digest this milk than other milks and say has an improved flavor (I got this information from reviews).


----------



## Cam019 (17 July 2017)

Hey RandomInvestor, a quick suggestion. Instead of creating a new thread for every single question you might have, how about a search for relevant threads first, and if you can't find one then by all means post a new thread. Your question could have definitely gone in here, which took about 6 seconds to find.

EDIT: Seems like @Joe Blow beat me to it.


----------



## RandomInvestor (17 July 2017)

Cam019 said:


> Hey RandomInvestor, a quick suggestion. Instead of creating a new thread for every single question you might have, how about a search for relevant threads first, and if you can't find one then by all means post a new thread. Your question could have definitely gone in here, which took about 6 seconds to find.
> 
> EDIT: Seems like @Joe Blow beat me to it.



No problem, will do next time.


----------



## Knobby22 (27 July 2017)

Taking off again.


----------



## skc (27 July 2017)

Knobby22 said:


> Taking off again.




So is the short interest. 

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m






FWIW... it is not out of the realms that A2M will hit some unpredictable Chinese regulatory hurdle at some stage and see it's share price down massively on a black swan. But the current short holders have got to be feeling somewhat painful?!


----------



## McLovin (27 July 2017)

skc said:


> So is the short interest.
> 
> https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m
> View attachment 72032
> ...




Or that Chinese consumers find something more fashionable. They seem to be more fickle than six year olds buying stationary.


----------



## Boggo (27 July 2017)

McLovin said:


> Or that Chinese consumers find something more fashionable. They seem to be more fickle than six year olds buying stationary.




Yes, they create the market, everyone gets excited and gears up to supply them and then they find a "fault" and drive the prices down.
Happening with the beef export at the moment.
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/...a-bans-aust-beef-over-labelling-concerns.html


----------



## notting (11 October 2017)

Setting up to be an absolute cracker of a short.






Are you fricken kidding me?!

Yeah market turnover right up there with TLS, WOW, WES, QAN - yeah right -






Maybe Ill go buy  a few Tassie cows

"Oh but they are a lot less dependent on China than BAL etc"
Oh great, that explains it!!!! I guess we're all having man baby food for breakfast in Aus all of a sudden.  It's going to replace beer!


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2017)

Aussi company ripping it up
Looks like no one here on it
Everyone cheering for a crash

A2M taking the US market on.


----------



## dutchie (11 October 2017)

tech/a said:


> Everyone cheering for a crash



Trading is a business.


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2017)

Don't see much business being carried on here other than by A2M


----------



## dutchie (11 October 2017)

tech/a said:


> Don't see much business being carried on here other than by A2M



lol


----------



## bigdog (11 October 2017)

tech/a said:


> Aussi company ripping it up
> Looks like no one here on it
> Everyone cheering for a crash
> 
> A2M taking the US market on.




tech/a

been on them since November 2015 and have been tipping A2M in monthly share tipping completion for quite a few months now.


----------



## notting (11 October 2017)

One of the best trading opportunities arise when the technicals point to insanity like when the AU was at 107 US and all the techos where calling to120!!
At which point Australia would have started heading for a depression, all on it's own.
There is a point where reality steps in.
You don't even need to pick the top when it is so far over cause you will get it back when the lights turn back on.  Like the guy that shorted the US housing market  in 2007 and got 20% spanking before it turned.
A2M haven't just discovered cows! Cows are everywhere and you can bread as many as you want outside the poisonous Chinese production lines.


----------



## rb250660 (11 October 2017)

So when did you short REA notting?


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2017)

notting said:


> One of the best trading opportunities arise when the technicals point to insanity like when the AU was at 107 US and all the techos where calling to120!!
> At which point Australia would have started heading for a depression, all on it's own.
> There is a point where reality steps in.
> You don't even need to pick the top when it is so far over cause you will get it back when the lights turn back on.  Like the guy that shorted the US housing market  in 2007 and got 20% spanking before it turned.
> A2M haven't just discovered cows! Cows are everywhere and you can bread as many as you want outside the poisonous Chinese production lines.




So you'd sell out now?
I'm not seeing a sell YET.

You have something which values A2M at something around or below this trading figure

What is your reality!


----------



## notting (11 October 2017)

Yeah started shorting it today.
That is my reality.  Shall see how it performs to determine when to short more or take profits!


----------



## notting (11 October 2017)

rb250660 said:


> So when did you short REA notting?




I've been both long and short REA - at present long.
What will be compelling is when Domain floats.  If that gets off to a good start, will make a great short, i expect!   Hopefully REA will see some weakness at that time at which point it would be a buy in my book.


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2017)

notting said:


> Yeah started shorting it today.
> That is my reality.  Shall see how it performs to determine when to short more or take profits!




Shorted at what price?


----------



## notting (11 October 2017)

6.98 and 7.05


----------



## notting (11 October 2017)

Even if what the idiots in the Fin Review are writing about A2M and Mr Lu were true, I'd still be shorting it.
But  imagine how awesome a short it would be if this were true -


China's purchase by stealth of 25 dairy farms in north-western Tasmania was funded entirely through debt.  *Those involved did not see 'Lu' as a serious bidder as he'd come late to the sales process.*

"No one thought he'd have enough time to make a bid," said the source.

Then, to the *shock* of most involved, less than two weeks later *Mr Lu offered a knockout bid of $280 million for the dairy group*.

It got approval from Scott Morrison because they promised 100m cash investment as well.
"They promised significant amounts of money would be invested…….* nothing has happened so far*,"

‘Moon Lake's managing director Sean Shwe said the company had *fulfilled all the basic commitments* made to the federal government and the board would finalize its capital expenditure plan by the end of *August.’  *

It’s now October.

The issue of Moon Lake's lofty promises still being a work in progress can be partly explained by the *curious way in which Mr Lu, a window blind manufacture from the regional city of Ningbo,* came to own one of Australia's oldest and most storied farms – the land was granted to VDL by King George IV in 1824.

According to those involved in the sale, *Mr Lu bought the dairy operation after a single three-hour visit in November 2015.*

That’s because Mr Lu is a *patsy* for the Chinese Communist Party.

Mr Lew’s  offer was at least 10 per cent above the under-bidder and nearly *$60 million more than a group of seasoned industry professionals had been prepared to pay.*

Company filings in China also show shareholders in New Material guaranteed $220 million in lending by Mr Lu for the purchase of VDL, while *there was also a $70 million loan from Rabo Bank in Australia.  *

Guess who’s going to take a hit when Mr Lew offloads it to a public (CCP) entity at a loss!

So far the market is reading this as a boon for A2M because Mr Lu  a fricken window blind manufacture from Ningbo (heard of Ningbo anyone?) is appearing to be struggling to compete with A2M because Lu has been offering consumers in Beijing, Shanghai and surrounding provinces eight litres of fresh milk over a month for 618 yuan or around $14.30 a litre which compares to $10.20 a litre for fresh milk from *the better known A2 Milk Company.*
So everyone thinks A2M is killing it.
No A2M is being stalked and will be knee capped.
Look out for *the better known* A2M 'milk contamination' or 'bribery' scandal  in China or Mr Lu going bust and the company offloaded to a shell company.

Any remember - *Melco Crown's Macau bonanza?*







Oh one of those Lions just bit James's head off.
*
Big scandal lock up the execs*.  Make James panic and sell his stake to his *Chinese* partner for a third of its value whilst majority of Crown execs are being tormented and interrogated in Chinese Prison.


----------



## VSntchr (11 October 2017)

notting said:


> Even if what the idiots in the Fin Review are writing about A2M and Mr Lu were true, I'd still be shorting it.
> 
> *Big scandal lock up the execs*.  Make James panic and sell his stake to his *Chinese* partner for a third of its value whilst majority of Crown execs are being tormented and interrogated in Chinese Prison.




So, are you short on the front side of this steam train @notting ?
I agree at some point this bubble may provide some good downside, but A2 could become A10 beforehand!


----------



## Triathlete (11 October 2017)

Triathlete said:


> I would set a stop at $5.70 on the daily to lock in some profits.
> I still expect a move towards $6.77 and $7.08.......



Now that A2M has reached these prices noted above I would sell half of my position now since there has been a 100% move from $5.17 to $6.40 and extended up from $5.85 and wait to see if we get another pull back up to 50% of the last range if we do we can again add to the position.


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2017)

I’d rather sell the lot
If it makes a new high buy a position back
If it retraces toward $6 watch price action to
Enter again. If it retraced any further I’d leave it alone.


----------



## peter2 (11 October 2017)

Hasn't this sector been on fire this week. 
A2M, BAL, SM1, BGA, WHA, BUB, CLV along with a huge BO in BKL.


----------



## luutzu (11 October 2017)

peter2 said:


> Hasn't this sector been on fire this week.
> A2M, BAL, SM1, BGA, WHA, BUB, CLV along with a huge BO in BKL.




Know what happened to things after they've on fire? 

Seriously, I don't know much about these food, health and diary business. They all seem way overpriced to me but yea.... A2M at some $7Billion? That's a lot of cows, and my guess is they're only getting the milk.


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 October 2017)

luutzu said:


> Know what happened to things after they've on fire?
> 
> Seriously, I don't know much about these food, health and diary business. They all seem way overpriced to me but yea.... A2M at some $7Billion? That's a lot of cows, and my guess is they're only getting the milk.



Probably best stick to Financial Ratios Luutzu.


----------



## luutzu (11 October 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Probably best stick to Financial Ratios Luutzu.




I do think strategic thingy maggig too though


----------



## notting (11 October 2017)

VSntchr said:


> So, are you short on the front side of this steam train @notting ?
> I agree at some point this bubble may provide some good downside, but A2 could become A10 beforehand!



yep I took the gap as a bit of insurance, space to reassess.  I bought half back at 6.94 as it filled it pretty quick!  Did not continue a break down so I'll see if it wants to make a higher high.  Ducky can make me a little more chicken than usual. It's a bird thing.

But don't forget this either -

In 2013 a wide-scale recall of products sold by dairy producer Fonterra was announced after suspected botulism-causing bacteria were reportedly *found by the Chinese* during safety tests. *(When the frick do the Chinese do safety tests on anything?  The Communist owned Chinese baby formulators poisoned all their babies which is why there is so much demand for foreign stuff in the first place)* Consequently approximately 1,000 tonnes of Fonterras perfectly healthy pristine consumer product was affected by the recall across *seven countries*, but *no cases of sickened consumers were reported*. China, which imports most of its powdered milk from New Zealand, instituted a temporary ban on the import of the ingredient from New Zealand.
in other  words they just wanted to level the playing field and take back some market share!

How good will Mr.Lu's premium on the premium brand look when A2 is targeted?!

Oh yeah McDonald's and KFC sold out to Chinese operators after a spate of food saftery scandals widely reported in Communist Chinese controlled local media!!!.


----------



## Triathlete (12 October 2017)

tech/a said:


> I’d rather sell the lot
> If it makes a new high buy a position back
> If it retraces toward $6 watch price action to
> Enter again. If it retraced any further I’d leave it alone.



Yep that works as well. 
That is the beauty of trading everyone has their own style as how they will play the game...


----------



## notting (13 October 2017)

Shorting again 708, 711, 713, Just because the price is ridiculous.


----------



## tech/a (13 October 2017)

How much are you shorting at a time?

How many shares?

Ridiculous prices have made me a lot of $$s over the years.

DVT had a P/E ration that sounded like a Cricket score yet it
defied logic from 6 c to $7.30 I only got a bit.
6c to $3.10

Most 1/2/3/500% risers look ridiculous for ages.
Some get so entrenched in having to be right against all those idiots who are crazy wrong they miss the train.


----------



## rb250660 (13 October 2017)

I bet it's a demo account. 

How's the "double top with a pop" going for QAN notting? Did you short that?

Lets see the confirmation notes or I'm calling you full of ****. And you better have decent size on it too for the way you run your mouth.


----------



## notting (13 October 2017)

rb250660 said:


> How's the "double top with a pop" going for QAN notting? Did you short that?



Yep, made money both ways. Then said it was still showing too much strength during missile tests to be short!  Ive never used a demo account.



rb250660 said:


> *I bet* it's a demo account.



Well speaking of demos, how about $700,000  on that bet for real? No less.



tech/a said:


> DVT had a P/E ration that sounded like a Cricket score yet it
> defied logic from 6 c to $7.30 I only got a bit.
> 6c to $3.10




Yeah but that happens with start ups.  It's gone way too far is what I'm saying - It's a well run business.  I'm not shorting huge amounts.  Just keeping people updated which I do if I mention what I'm doing.  I have about 60 other positions!

Took some back at the close.  Don't like the fact that BAL is going nuts too, to let too much hang out there.
I'm Using CFDs so that the brokerage is a small percentage hence the ability to use multiple trades with small increments.  I call it 'The Bradman!' I can get way big if things like BAL aren't happening at the same time!  But not on this one now. The swinging for the fences trade will go on BAL  when A2M looks like it's turning. BAL is no A2M!
BAL went through 10, finished high, which is annoying.  But I haven't lost money standing in front of the  A2M train which tells me it's running out of steam, trades aren't getting swallowed too enthusiastically as they do when an error is becoming a mistake!


----------



## tech/a (13 October 2017)

60 positions
Seriously that’s a waste of time!


----------



## Trendnomics (13 October 2017)

Must be an exciting life trying to pick up pennies in front of an oncoming steam-roller!

Perhaps asymmetric risk/reward is not fully understood.


----------



## notting (13 October 2017)

Trendnomics said:


> Must be an exciting life trying to pick up pennies in front of an oncoming steam-roller!
> 
> Perhaps asymmetric risk/reward is not fully understood.



Perhaps not if your looking at intraday momentum vs extremity of daily momentum of a run up  and the probability of it to continue at it's rate given the bigger picture and value.
Risk understood and covered with stop losses and profited from in this case against the train.
Yes it is an exciting life, it's golf that's *not*!!!!!!!! I do some of it on a treadmill so get my exercise too.




tech/a said:


> 60 positions
> Seriously that’s a waste of time!



I understand why you say that.
However it's not hard at all because I just leave most of them with their trend one way or another and can check all of them, if any are doing something more compelling, at a touch of a button.  I concentrate more intensely on a few at a  time more pro actively as they start to look silly, going the wrong way, have made enough money etc.  No time at all to have a good hands on feel for all those opportunities.
I was long A2M until I started screaming, 'this is mental!'

Wasn't a great day today given market just broke out of a long consolidation and this is pretty much the leading stock in the leading sector.  Wasn't all together bad either with the higher high. But it's toppy even without Chinese intervention.


----------



## rb250660 (14 October 2017)

With 60 positions you're probably just tracking the market. Sell up and buy STW.


----------



## tech/a (14 October 2017)

rb250660 said:


> With 60 positions you're probably just tracking the market. Sell up and buy STW.




That is exactly my point.
No edge in the market.
Make a profit out of futures trade or a handful
Of stock and then your trading.

Don’t kid yourself your investing either.
Your money’s not working for you as it’s spread too thin.


----------



## notting (15 October 2017)

rb250660 said:


> With 60 positions you're probably just tracking the market. Sell up and buy STW.




Your really think I wouldn't have thought of that in kinder?  So smug your false sense of superiority whilst offering a pathetically under performing alternative.
STW has been a waist of space for the last 2 years and generally moves slow and the only time it is better than what I do is when I'm on the wrong side.
I would have had slightly more respect for you if you had said the s&p but that's probably a stretch for your faculties to  cope with, let alone investing capacity.



tech/a said:


> Don’t kid yourself your investing either.
> Your money’s not working for you as it’s spread too thin.




This is old hat and common and sometimes a better way to play.  Like I said before, *I get it*.
I'm across it!!!!!!
*NO EDGE on - STW* been a better play thing than the way I have played this sidewinder over the last two years.  This way made me 36.07%.  STW 7.60%.  If you  have done better than that then preach to me about Edge in a side winder!!!

Now that All Ords has broken out I may be more inclined to play closer to your rules(but probably not) given we have some catching up to do.  STW is a trade as of 4 days ago and I'm on it!!  Will look to increase it if it backs down and holds.


----------



## tech/a (17 October 2017)

Still shorting your brains out?


----------



## notting (17 October 2017)

No way!  Stopped went again at 714 715 stopped at 7.19 almost no damage due to buy back on the way raising the holding average.
wasn't shorting my brains out but will!!  when it turns on BAL and now probably this too!! 
Shorting anything on a market break like this aint too smart as you well know!
Going well on the TPM and VOC after Telstra confirmed it is a basket case, trying to blame wifi and household wiring for slow nbn.  Another way to make your customers want to kill you.

Still made money on the day 





Ps I think you should change your picture back to scrooge he was more intimidating


----------



## rb250660 (17 October 2017)

So no confirmation notes?


----------



## notting (17 October 2017)

You're irrelevant


----------



## PinguPingu (17 October 2017)

What a ride so far.


----------



## rb250660 (17 October 2017)

notting said:


> You're irrelevant




I'll take that as the trades were never made.


----------



## notting (17 October 2017)




----------



## Knobby22 (18 October 2017)

I sold half my shares for just under $7 on Friday. Nearly doubled my money but want to take a bet each way. I know, not a good trading plan but if it starts retracing I am relaxed.


----------



## luutzu (18 October 2017)

Is this going to be another Blackmores or what?


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2017)

luutzu said:


> Is this going to be another Blackmores or what?



Only after the last short seller gives up and everyone is long. You know how much of a smart arse Mr. Market is.


----------



## notting (20 October 2017)

Going at it again, can't help myself!


----------



## rb250660 (23 October 2017)

notting said:


> Going at it again, can't help myself!




Long or short?


----------



## notting (1 November 2017)

That's why you have to try to pick it rather than wait for it on these rare occasions.
They usually gap down and you miss 15 to 20% like that.


----------



## PinguPingu (1 November 2017)

Woo wee, what a shake-out. Liking the stopping volume so far.


----------



## Joules MM1 (18 November 2017)

to be educated some watch the whole video or to get to the punchline goto 5.50


----------



## Country Lad (20 November 2017)

Interesting video Joules, now I would like to see a similar exercise done with goat's milk.


----------



## notting (20 November 2017)

Took profitis at 6.4 ish took a little long now looking to sell and short again.  Starting on a Monday with a high is usually a little bullish which is why I didn't do it today.


----------



## greggles (30 January 2018)

The a2 Milk Company juggernaut continues to head north. A slight pullback today, but the 12 month chart cannot be denied. An outstanding performance!


----------



## bigdog (21 February 2018)

*Looks like a great  Half Year interim results FY 2018 REPORT*

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180221/pdf/43rrbkhkcsr82z.pdf

*HIGHLIGHTS*
Revenue, earnings and cash flow continue to grow strongly Half-year earnings exceed those for the 2017 full financial year

*Overview for the half-year ended 31 December 2017 (NZ$)*
• Total revenue of $434.7 million – an increase of 70% over the prior corresponding period (pcp)
• EBITDA1 of $143.0 million – 123% ahead of the pcp
• Net profit after tax of $98.5 million – 150% ahead of the pcp
• Basic earnings per share (EPS) of 13.6 cents, an increase of 147%
• Operating cash flow of $116.4 million and a cash balance of $240.2 million at the end of the period
• Continued strong growth in a2 Platinum® infant formula sales and market share in China and Australia
• Expansion in fresh milk distribution and sales in the United States
• Progress in new product development and expansion into emerging markets
• Admission to the S&P/ASX 100 and S&P/NZX 10 indices, effective December 2017

The Company made further substantial gains in revenue, earnings and cash flow in the first half of the 2018 financial year. Growth continued at a very strong rate in the infant formula business, and liquid milk sales were again higher in each of the Company’s core markets.

Sales of a2 Platinum® infant formula again grew substantially in Australia and China supported by an increase in market share in those regions. Key first half sales events in China have also contributed to a strong 1H18 result, particularly in November and December. a2 Platinum® sales revenue was $341.0 million, 78% of the Company’s total revenue for the half-year. Investment continued in building brand awareness and consumer engagement, expanding distribution for a2 Platinum® in multiple channels and adapting to new regulatory requirements in China.

Significant progress was achieved in the United States, with further growth in brand awareness, sales velocities and store numbers within the established footprint of California and the Southeast. The US business also further  expanded geographically, culminating in the announcement in January 2018 that the a2 Milk™ brand would become available through major retailers across the Northeast region.

Fresh milk sales in the United Kingdom continued to build, driven by further improvement in sales velocities instore and gains in distribution.

Total Group marketing investment increased by $10.0 million over the pcp, due primarily to programmes supporting growth in the United States and China.

The Company’s cash position continued to increase along with growth in revenue and earnings. Net operating cash flow was $116.4 million, compared with $38.1 million in the pcp. Cash on hand at 31 December 2017 was $240.2 million, compared with $121.0 million at the end of June 2017. Working capital benefited from improved debtor days and timing of payments with suppliers. This has been partially offset by an increase in infant formula inventory of $25.2 million as the Company seeks to build progressively to more sustainable levels during the year.

This included an increase in China label inventory in response to regulatory changes from January 2018 and increasing demand.

There more to read in ASX link

4191


----------



## bigdog (21 February 2018)

*A2M $10.150  $+1.440  +16.53% @ Wed 21 Feb 2018 10:08 AM (Sydney time) *

WOW!!


----------



## bigdog (21 February 2018)

*A2M  closed $11.300  $+2.590  +29.74%  @  Wed 21 Feb 2018 8:45 PM *
*The market loved their half year report!!*


----------



## notting (21 February 2018)

bigdog said:


> *A2M  closed $11.300  $+2.590  +29.74%  @  Wed 21 Feb 2018 8:45 PM *
> *The market loved their half year report!!*



Unbelievable!


----------



## jjbinks (28 March 2018)

A2 down 7%


----------



## bigdog (16 May 2018)

A2M SP crashed today after ASX announcement


*A2M  $10.280  $-1.850 (-15.25%*







15 May 2018
NZX/ASX Market Release
*Trading Update and FY18 Outlook*
The a2 Milk Company is pleased to provide the following update on the Group’s trading performance for the 9 months to 31 March 2018, as well as its outlook of the Group’s full year FY18.

*Trading performance for 9 months to 31 March 2018*
The Company confirms that for the 9 months ended 31 March 2018, Group revenue was NZ$660 million1, up ~70% on the prior corresponding period. This performance reflects continued sales growth in both nutritional products and liquid milk. It also includes the impact of seasonal sales from key China selling events weighted towards 1H18.

*FY18 outlook*
The Company is anticipating Group revenue in the range of NZ$900 million to NZ$920 million for the 12 months ended 30 June 2018. This takes into account the planned transition to new infant formula packaging during Q4.

Gross margin percentage for the full year is expected to remain broadly consistent with 1H18, given the benefit of throughput efficiencies and currency movements.

The Group’s total marketing investment is now expected to be in the range of NZ$82 million to NZ$87 million for the full year, given higher expenditure primarily in the US and China businesses in 2H18 compared to 1H18.

This information is to be included in an investor presentation to be given by the Company during an investor roadshow in Singapore and Hong Kong from 16 May 2018.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

While this is undoubtedly a strong result, it has fallen short of the market’s lofty expectations for revenue of circa NZ$950 million.

7212


----------



## HelloU (16 May 2018)

and took synlait with it thru nearology........its the future you bet on not the past. Overvalued? today, yes for probably both, but in 6 months??


----------



## galumay (16 May 2018)

bigdog said:


> While this is undoubtedly a strong result, it has fallen short of the market’s lofty expectations for revenue of circa NZ$950 million.




Its not that the result was short of expectations as much as the market held ludicrous expectations for A2M growth, this was baked into the price and so despite a very good result showing strong growth the market finally woke up that its forecast was plain wrong and the price was adjusted to reflect.

I suppose its semantics to some extent, but it annoys me that businesses often get the blame for the errors in valuation of Mr Market!


----------



## bigdog (5 June 2018)

*SP currently up 4.67% following ASX announcement that Blackrock Inc now substantial shareholder*








ASX announcement today
A2M 5/06/2018 10:11:30 AM 36 Becoming a substantial holder - BlackRock






*BlackRock, Inc.* is an American global investment management corporation based in New York City. Founded in 1988, initially as a risk management and fixed income institutional asset manager, BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager with $6.3 trillion in assets under management as of December 2017.[2] BlackRock operates globally with 70 offices in 30 countries and clients in 100 countries.[3] Due to its power and the sheer size and scope of its financial assets and activities, BlackRock has been called the world's largest shadow bank.[4][5]

7741


----------



## bigdog (12 July 2018)

*"ATM" a2 Milk Company on NZX is down 7 cents after open in New Zealand (delayed)*


*12/07/2018 7:30:16 AM 1 
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	







 FY2018 Trading Update and FY2019 Outlook*
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180712/pdf/43wgffb9h98j57.pdf

 12 July 2018

NZX/ASX Market Release


*FY2018 Trading Update and FY2019 Outlook *

Further to the trading update released on 16 May 2018, The a2 Milk Company is pleased to advise that unaudited Group revenue for the financial year ended 30 June 2018 (*FY2018*) totalled ~$922million, representing growth on the prior corresponding period of ~68%. The Company can now also confirm that it expects an EBITDA to Sales ratio for FY2018 to approximate 30%.


The Company has completed its planning cycle for FY2019 and, assuming general trading conditions do not change materially, the Company’s expectations in respect of FY2019 include:

- further growth in revenue particularly in respect of nutritional products;


- marketing expenditure, as a percentage of sales, higher than FY2018 given continuing investment in Australia, re-phasing of 2H FY2018 activities in China and elevated investment to support the US market expansion;


- overhead costs higher than FY2018, primarily due to an increasing headcount for China and the Corporate office to support the increasing scale of the Company;


- one-off costs associated with the transition to a new CEO as recently advised.


Notwithstanding the higher expenditure referred to above, the EBITDA to Sales ratio for FY2019 is assumed to be broadly consistent with the Company’s expectations for FY2018.


----------



## bigdog (22 August 2018)

ASX Announcement today
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180822/pdf/43xjq7kdxy4t45.pdf

Up 13 cents in New Zealand this morning




 A2M Results Commentary FY18






9102


----------



## bigdog (22 August 2018)

Share price was high earlier of $10.90 after ASX announcement this morning





I do hold


----------



## bigdog (24 September 2018)

A2M SP down today low of $0.55, currently down $0.37

*IS THE ACTION OF OUR NEW CEO ACCEPTABLE?*

*ASX ann 21/09/2018 3:20:38 PM  Change of Director's Interest Notice*

Our new leader Carla Jayne Hrdlicka sold her shares for  $3.991 million

*Number disposed*
(1) 178,616 Ordinary Shares disposed of on 18/09/2018.
(2) 178,616 Ordinary Shares disposed of on 20/09/2018.

*Value/Consideration*
(1) AUD $1,978,493.71 received for the on market sale of 178,616 Ordinary Shares using broker facilities.
(2) AUD $2,016,646.09 received for the on market sale of 178,616 Ordinary Shares using broker facilities.
*
No. of securities held after change*
Nil Ordinary Shares.
245,787 Performance Rights.
242,022 Time-Based Rights.







842


----------



## Knobby22 (24 September 2018)

She must think they are fairly fully valued and she wants to buy a new holiday house or something.
Also she will get many more shares than she sold in the fullness of time with the performance rights.


----------



## bigdog (24 September 2018)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12130288

* a2 Milk boss Jayne Hrdlicka sells company shares only two months into job *
23 Sep, 2018 2:43pm (NZ time)

a2 Milk's new chief executive has moved to sell all her shares in the company after just two months in the job, causing a stir in the investment community.

Jayne Hrdlicka sold 178,616 shares in a2 Milk last Tuesday, and an equal number of shares on Thursday, for a total of around A$4 million ($4.3 million), according to a notice issued late on Friday to the Australian and New Zealand stock exchanges.

The shares were received by Hrdlicka, who is on a salary of A$1.5m, on the automatic exercise of rights in the company.

The company said in its notice the share sales were to meet Hrdlica's tax obligations and to "fund commitments made by Ms Hrdlicka prior to her taking up employment with the company".

"Ms Hrdlicka retains a relative interest in time-based rights and performance rights," the notice said.

A spokesman for a2 Milk said the 245,787 in performance rights, and 242,022 time-based rights, would take Hrdlicka's holding back over her original stake upon their execution.

Devon Funds executive chairman Paul Glass said Hrdlicka's sales came at a sensitive time for the stock.

"It's a really interesting decision for a new CEO to dump every share she owns, excluding options, just a couple of months into the new job and at a time when there is a lot of uncertainty hanging over the A2's sales channels following the release of new Chinese regulations over e-commerce that come into effect from January 1," Glass said.

"Jane has been exceptionally bullish on the stock since joining, particularly in meetings with institutional investors over the last few weeks," he said.

Last month China introduced a new e-commerce law, with implementation also coinciding with the end of the cross-boarder e-commerce (CBEC) rules.

Research from Craigs Investment Partners estimated about 33 per cent of a2 Milk's infant formula volume flows through the CBEC channel. Craigs said potential for change in the regulation remained an uncertainty for A2 Milk and its supplier, Synlait Milk.

Seeing Hrdlicka sell was "quite staggering" , Glass said.

"This will raise real issues if there are problems in the sales channels due to the new Chinese regulations," he said.

"Investors are paying over 32 times forecast earnings for this stock so it's not one you want to see any negative surprises from," Glass said.

Earlier this month, a2 Milk's chief financial officer Craig Loutit sold his stake down to 350,000 shares from 500,000 in order to fund the exercise price and tax obligations relating to his recent exercise of options to subscribe for shares in the company.

The Motley Fool, the influential Australia-based firm that provides stock research, also weighed in.

While Hrdlicka clearly has valid reasons for the sale of these shares, it was still "very disappointing" to see her offload all her ordinary shares so soon after joining the company at a time when its growth could be challenged due to a maturing Chinese infant formula market, it said.

The share sales by Bellamy's Australia executives before the infant formula maker's fall from grace a couple of years ago is no doubt still fresh in the minds of many investors, it said.

Shares in a2 Milk closed on Friday at $12.51, down from its record high in March of $14.10, but up 107 per cent over the last 12 months.

Under the terms of employment released to NZX, Hrdlicka's salary is A$1.5 million per year, reviewed annually, with a yearly bonus of up to 100 per cent of her salary based on performance against key indicators.

The a2 Milk board can also increase or decrease that by 20 percent on its own assessment of her performance.

Hrdlicka was chief executive of Qantas Airways' Jetstar Group for the past five years and a non-executive director of Woolworths.


----------



## bigdog (28 September 2018)

*Is Jane selling more shares?*

Share price down $0.32 (-3.03%) at 11:44 AM today






https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12132801

*Stock Takes: Questions raised over CEO's a2 Milk share sale *

Sharemarket watchers will be familiar with the announcements that come out from time to time from company directors and top management regarding their own shareholdings.

When companies are on the ropes and facing difficult times, it is common to see company insiders buy shares as a gesture of good faith.

And when things are going gangbusters, investors like to see insiders getting into the swim of things and taking on more stock.

Furthermore, they see it is natural when insiders — perhaps after a long stint — pare back their holdings as they prepare to exit.

So when a2 Milk chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka sold her all her head shares in a2 Milk just two months into the job, it caused a backlash.

The trades were declared after the market closed in New Zealand on Friday.

When trade resumed on Monday, the stock was sold down by $450 million on the back of the news.

Hrdlicka's remaining time-based rights and performance rights still leave her with plenty of skin in the game, but the sale raises a few issues.

There are some funds that focus exclusively on the buying and selling patterns of market insiders, and there's academic research to back the idea that they can be an indicator of things to come.

The sale also came at a time when there is some uncertainty emerging about the regulatory environment in China's cross-border e-commerce channel, which as been a big part of a2 Milk's success to date.

* Four star*
Morningstar has undertaken coverage of a2 Milk, rating it four stars out of a possible five.

In a report, the investment research company said while a2 Milk's highest-growth days were behind it, the company still expected to see solid future gains, with market share opportunities in Chinese infant formula, US fresh milk, and global follow-on dairy products supporting its outlook for nearly 20 per cent of annual earnings growth over the next decade.

"And with minimal capital investment needs, a2 is set to enjoy stellar returns on invested capital and strong free cash flow," it said.

"However, the future success of the firm relies mostly upon developments in the Chinese infant formula market, where we estimate a2 generates nearly 90 per cent of its earnings through both direct sales and third parties," it said.

Morningstar said it expected market share of China's infant formula market to climb to 15 per cent of over the next 10 years from 5 per cent in fiscal 2018, "but continued competition and scientific developments regarding a2 Milk present sizeable risks," it said.

* A good look?*
Morningstar, which as a "fair value" estimate of $14.60, said a2 Milk looked undervalued.

Adam Fleck, Morningstar's director of equity research for Australia and New Zealand, said the CEO's share sale was a surprise.

"Any time you see insiders, particularly executives who have a significant control over the company's future strategy, selling down shares, you have to ask a lot of questions," he told Stock Takes.

But he said management had done a "terrific job" for shareholders and "we would expect that to continue a lot of that same trajectory".

On the regulatory front, he said a2 Milk and partner Synlait Milk had, in the past, done a good job dealing with the vagaries of Chinese environment.

"For us, it is about the long-term story, and the long-term story is one of Chinese consumers really flocking to high quality premium priced international formula brands will continue," Fleck said. "And we think a2 will be an increasing part of that story."

Morningstar has a three level "stewardship" rating system, and in a2 Milk's case, it rated as management as "standard".

"She (Hrdlicka) is still strongly incentivised to see success in a2 Milk and a one-time transaction like this does not dissuade us from that standard stewardship rating," Fleck said.

"One data point does not a trend make, but we will be keeping an eye on that going forward."


----------



## HelloU (28 September 2018)

bigdog said:


> *Is Jane selling more shares?*
> 
> Share price down $0.32 (-3.03%) at 11:44 AM today
> View attachment 89501
> ...



did give ya fair warning on that email I was sending ......

(no idea here btw)


----------



## bigdog (4 October 2018)

bigdog said:


> *Is Jane selling more shares?*




*No another director Peter Bruce Hinton has sold 25000 shares

26 September 2018  NZ$297,856.28 received for the on-market sale of 25,000 Ordinary Shares using broker facilities.*

*3/10/2018 12:17:23 PM Change of Director's Interest Notice*






*The SP today is currently $9.79 down $-0.18 or -1.81%

One month SP chart high of $11.91 and low yesterday of  $9.95 (down $1.96)
*


----------



## tech/a (4 October 2018)

Astute directors


----------



## Boggo (4 October 2018)

tech/a said:


> Astute directors




They have probably done a bit of reading on the mess that Jayne left behind in Jetstar Asia and the direction she was heading in Qantas before they saw the light


----------



## bigdog (4 October 2018)

*Jayne Hrdlicka's last job at Qantas was CEO of the Qantas Frequent Flier Loyalty Program*
November 2017 – April 2018  6 months
-- No doubt looking for a new job just after starting this exciting Loyalty Program job!!
-- hardly a promotion or what?


Her prior job was CEO Jetstar Group
-- July 2012 – November 2017 5 years 5 months


----------



## MarketMatters (4 October 2018)

Hmmmmm. Rings bells like Vocus! Let's hope it's not cascading.


----------



## bigdog (4 October 2018)

Boggo said:


> They have probably done a bit of reading on the mess that Jayne left behind in Jetstar Asia and the direction she was heading in Qantas before they saw the light




Boggo,  What are some of details of the mess that Jane left behind in Jetstar Asia?

I am worried about Jane’s ability at A2 Milk as CEO??


----------



## HelloU (5 October 2018)

OT
just want to store this here in case I need it later:
"no point in crying over spilled milk".

hey bigdog ....2 things
the other milk mob over there may be worth a look SM1 - I have not looked in a while as sold when it fell pre report  (new finance strategy for me - don't ask)
if milk is beginning to sour then that water mob is coming up to 'put up or shut up' time with 4c.

3rd ....footy was fantastic. No wonder those corporate boxes cost so much.


----------



## Boggo (5 October 2018)

bigdog said:


> Boggo,  What are some of details of the mess that Jane left behind in Jetstar Asia?
> 
> I am worried about Jane’s ability at A2 Milk as CEO??




No personal experience with her, my post is based on comments of few colleagues went to Asia with all the best intentions and hopes of a successful Jetstar Asia.

They were familiar with the culture and how you needed to learn to walk quietly on eggshells when you were a player and a potential competitor in their front yard.

From the comments etc that I have heard Jayne chose to ignore the advice of those who knew better and went on to rattle all the wrong cages.
Hiring of incompetent ground handlers, then firing them and taking on another resulting in being sued by the first etc etc.
That sort of stuff gets noticed and licence applications etc get refused.

Unless she has changed her manner and learned I would be concerned about any venture in Asia that she may be associated with.

The pprune forum may have some bits of info (aside from the grizzling) that may provide further insight, eg...
https://www.pprune.org/9809930-post20.html


----------



## bigdog (5 October 2018)

NZ article on A2 Milk

The decision by a2 Milk chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka to quit 357,000 of her shares just two months into the job has drawn fire from Shareholders Association head Michael Midgely.

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/#
Dairy - 1 October 2018
*a2 shares sale sparks debate*
by Richard Rennie

The decision by a2 Milk chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka to quit 357,000 of her shares just two months into the job has drawn fire from Shareholders Association head Michael Midgely.

Hrdlicka sold her shares for $4.3 million before the high flying company’s share price eased, to $11.95 by the middle of last week, down from $12.51 when the firm announced the sale to the market.

The reasons given for the sale include a need for Hrdlicka to fund tax obligations relating to the recent automatic exercise of time-based rights and to fund commitments made by her before taking up the job with a2 Milk.

She has retained interest in time-based rights and performance rights. 

The time-based rights give her the right to acquire ordinary shares in the company, to compensate for the forfeiture of incentive entitlements from her former employer, Qantas-owned Jetstar Group, where she was chief executive for five years. 

Estimates are she still has 250,000 a2 shares which become fully tradable by August next year.

Australian Financial Times columnist Joe Aston reported that when employed by a2 Hrdlicka was paid $600,000 up front in cash, two-thirds of the value of the short-term incentives she was to receive with her then employer Qantas, and 599,245 a2 shares. 

The 357,000 shares became eligible for trading on September 3, two weeks after a2’s 2018 financial year results were announced.

Midgely said the association is paying close attention to Hrdlicka’s actions and it is a “bad look” for the company.

“Different companies have different policies but you need the approval of the company to do this. A quick look at a2’s policy sees a broader allowance for share sales than some other companies.”

He said the reasons given suggest there could have been a better way to organise the payments Hrdlicka had to make than with the shares’ sale.

“And in this case, to have to have a total sale of the shares? I would have thought a bit of advance planning would have avoided that. 

“As a matter of principle we are not very happy about golden welcomes to incoming chief executives. 

“If these payments are going to happen, why can they not just be cash?”

The shares were included in her remuneration that also includes a salary of A$1.5 million.

Midgely said regardless of how eligible the chief executive might have been to sell her shares it is not a particularly positive signal to investors and the market and more so for a company like a2 Milk that has a high price to earnings ratio. 

A2’s P:E ratio has investors paying about 32 times over earnings against a sector average of 21. 

Latest valuations have the company worth $9.2 billion, with annual revenue of $922 million.

Following sale on September 21 an announcement was made to the stock exchange that investment firm BlackRock had lifted its stake in a2 Milk from 5.03% to 5.212%.

BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager with US$6.29 trillion of assets under management.

A long-time recruitment consultant said some companies don’t allow chief executives to sell their shares but NZ lacks any clear recording of what they are being paid in shares.

“In the United Kingdom the Financial Times keeps a list of shareholdings held by directors and will report on any sales or movements. 

“It is very much watched by the investor market.” 

That comes amidst growing shareholder dissent in the UK over disparities in executive pay levels, with reports of an 18% rise in FTSE 100 bosses’ salaries last year alone.


----------



## rnr (7 October 2018)

Will price bounce off the $9.30 resistance level or will price continue down and close the old gap?


----------



## notting (15 October 2018)

Fell through 9.20 and revisited in a bullish way on Friday.
Meeting resistance again this morning.
I'd mark this as an important week for direction.
All things associated with China have been taking a pounding over the last few months.
China can't change it's culture of ripoff, theft, extortion and graft overnight.  it's in their DNA.
Whilst Trump is doing the right thing, there isn't really an answer to China that is economically good for anyone other than allowing them to continue, which is starting to pose a major security risk for the entire world. 
So sentimentally you'd have to say the downside is where the bias should be


----------



## Knobby22 (15 October 2018)

Oh I don't know. 
It's a different product which is being copied but it will take years to compete. I predict quite a bit further to rise yet.


----------



## galumay (16 October 2018)

notting said:


> China can't change it's culture of ripoff, theft, extortion and graft overnight. it's in their DNA.




I think its human DNA, just look at our politicians, rorting hand over fist, $100's of k's of printing expences to related parties, $40k internet charges fraudulently claimed, then repayed without penalty, jobs for girlfriends outside all guidelines, just to mention 3 recent examples. Look what the banking RC uncovered in terms of corporate ripoff, theft, extortion and graft.

I dont think we have much high moral ground when it comes to China.


----------



## bigdog (17 October 2018)

SP at10:25 today






ASX Investor presentation today
17/10/2018 7:30:05 AM 34 Investor Presentation

New data reported


----------



## bigdog (21 November 2018)

Was Jayne demoted from Jet Star CEO to run the Loyalty Business for a short period then resigned to join A2M?

*Article today's Herald Sun*

‘WE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE CLEAR’
Herald Sun - Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 

THE head of the board at A2 Milk has conceded the dairy company could have better explained to investors arrangements around the recruitment of chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka. 

Controversy has surrounded the decision by Ms Hrdlicka in September to sell $NZ4.36 million ($4.1 million) worth of A2 shares two months after taking up the role. 

At the time, the dairy group said she sold the shares to meet tax obligations, and commitments made before she joined the company from Qantas Airways, where she ran its loyalty business. 

A2 chair David Hearn yesterday said the board had decided it was appropriate to compensate Ms Hrdlicka — for the share-based Qantas incentives she would forfeit when she left the airline — with shares in the dairy group. 

Directors believed that was the best way to align her interests with those of A2 from the day she signed up to join the company at the end of last year. 

“With the benefit of hindsight, we certainly could have done things perhaps differently,” he said, speaking at the group’s annual meeting in Melbourne yesterday. 

“We recognise that we could have communicated things better.” 

The admission came as Auckland-based A2, which is listed in Australia, reported a 64.5 per cent increase in net profit to $NZ86 million in the first four months of its financial year, underpinned by continuing growth in its Australian, Chinese and American markets. 

Revenue was up 40.5 per cent, compared with the same period a year ago, at $NZ368.4 million, the group said. It forecast revenue growth would continue over the rest of the year “but at a slightly more moderate rate than in the first four months” . 

The company said it expected its earnings-to-sales ratio over the rest of the year to “be broadly consistent with (that of the past financial year) reflecting a higher gross margin percentage” , offset by increased marketing spending and foreign exchange headwinds. 

“We have had a great year and we are off to a strong start (this financial year,” Ms Hrdlicka said at the meeting. 

“We have a strong brand, special culture and unique proposition, the combination of which positions us very well for the future.” 

“We are not concerned about the current regulatory dynamic in China and elsewhere in the world.” 

A2 shares fell 1.2 per cent, or 12c, yesterday to $9.68.


----------



## bigdog (21 November 2018)

https://www.usnews.com/news/busines...-slide-after-wall-street-losses-nissan-arrest

The association said the board was at fault for allowing the situation to arise, and to provide a signing on bonus of about $7m with no performance component was "remarkable".

"To do so for a new CEO who has no great experience in A2 Milk's field of business is unprecedented. Adding to questions around the board's judgement is the fact that the new CEO base rate is far higher than that of Mr Babbidge who was responsible for driving the massive growth that [A2 Milk] has enjoyed to date," the association said.

*A2 proposes big hike in directors' fees*
GERARD HUTCHING15:24, Nov 19 2018


A2 Milk directors will receive a hefty fee hike if a proposed resolution is passed at the company's annual meeting on Tuesday.

Chairman David Hearn's fee will rise by 37.5 per cent to $165,000, as will the three independent non-executive directors, who will be paid a similar amount.

Deputy chairwoman Julia Hoare is set to receive $210,000, up 27.3 per cent. Her fee is higher than Hearn's because he has an executive role in relation to the company in Europe and the United Kingdom.

Frequent critic the Shareholders Association has given a qualified blessing to the rises, acknowledging A2 has grown and performed well over the past few years, and shareholders have benefited.

"In our view, the proposed fees are towards the top of the scale and unless there are extenuating circumstances, we would not expect the board to come back to shareholders seeking a further increase for at least two years."

However in a preview report prior to the annual meeting, it has blasted chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka for pocketing $4.36 million after cashing in shares, only two months into the job. A2 Milk said at the time she did so to meet tax obligations and commitments made before she joined the company.

Hrdlicka's package is in excess of $9m for her first year, made up of a base salary of $1.61m, a signing on bonus of $630,000 and 599,254 share options she can exercise between August 2018 and August 2019.  

Having now sold the bulk of her shares, she has a balance of 242,022 that she can dispose of up to August next year and if sold at the current share price these will realise $2.63m.


"In our view, Ms Hrdlicka has impacted on confidence in the company by her (completely legal) actions in selling, and this must raise questions about her judgement. If the situation was unavoidable, it would surely have been better for A2 Milk to disclose the need to sell at the time when she was employed, rather than after the event."

The association said the board was at fault for allowing the situation to arise, and to provide a signing on bonus of about $7m with no performance component was "remarkable".

"To do so for a new CEO who has no great experience in A2 Milk's field of business is unprecedented. Adding to questions around the board's judgement is the fact that the new CEO base rate is far higher than that of Mr Babbidge who was responsible for driving the massive growth that [A2 Milk] has enjoyed to date," the association said.


It opposed a resolution that Hrdlicka be appointed managing director on the grounds there should be a clear separation of the governance and management roles and to avoid the conflicts of interest that will arise from a dual role. It said the chief executive should report to the board and not be a "first among equals".

An A2 spokesman acknowledged Hrdlicka's share sale had not resonated well with shareholders.

"We paid what we paid to get a chief executive of the calibre we have today. Jayne was leaving a sizeable equity position from her previous role and the company needed to compensate her for some of what she was leaving behind.

"It is the board's view that what it was seeking to do was align Jayne's interest to the company as early as possible."

He said the previous remuneration pool was set two years ago when the share price was about $2 and the revenue was $350m.

Since then it had become an ASX100 and NZX10 company with revenue approaching $1 billion and market capitalisation exceeding $7b. A benchmarking review it had commissioned convinced the board the new remuneration pool was a fair one.

It was a multinational business with "enormous" potential, but also with enormous demands and significant risks to navigate. As well, it was sizing up the possibility of an additional  directorship.

Meanwhile Swiss banking giant UBS has splashed out $379m on A2 shares to give it a 5.07 per cent holding in the company.

In September, United States investment company Blackrock bought a 5.21 per cent stake in A2.

The dairy marketer's share price has fallen from a high of $14.10 to $10.31 on Monday, although as recently as 2015 the shares could be picked up for 50 cents each.

While most cows carry both A1 and A2 proteins, A2 milk comes from herds that that produce milk naturally free of the A1 protein.

Production of A1 or A2 type milk depends on a cow's genetics, and research indicates A2 may be healthier for people who are susceptible to diabetes, heart disease, autism, schizophrenia and Crohn's disease.


----------



## bigdog (21 November 2018)

Jayne's last interview about her selling of shares on Bloomberg for "tax obligations"



For investors like me ...the sentiment sounds very negative and my patience is certainly being tested.


Some comments I found after watching the video:

She uses all her upcoming shares as defense for her actions of selling her first lot of shares that came through...as we found out painfully yesterday, she intends to sell her upcoming shares too - so she was plainly BSing through that. You can tell in her voice as soon as the newsreader makes questions about her share sale, Jane's starts stumbling on her own words.

She needs to learn that her "personal motives" as a CEO of a company can impact shareholders especially when it involves selling the company shares shes in charge of...get a loan or set yourself up on a payment plan ffs. Does she realize that everytime she sells shares, surprise surprise, that's a Captal gains tax event?


----------



## bigdog (22 November 2018)

NZ article found in $NZ

The US federation filed a complaint with the country's National Advertising Division, arguing that  "A2 milk falsely promises consumers that its product is 'easier on digestion' as compared to conventional milk and that consumers can 'avoid digestive discomfort' and will 'feel the difference,'" according to a statement.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@pro/201...eo-not-worried-by-action-by-us-producer-group

*A2 Milk CEO not worried by action by US producer group*
Tuesday 20th November 2018

A2 Milk Co chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka is not concerned about a bid by the US National Milk Producers Federation to haul it over the coals for allegedly making false advertising claims there.

Hrdlicka said she was confident A2 Milk would be successful in the US, where it has lifted its points of distribution by 50 percent in the first four months of the current financial year.

"The science is solid. We have gone through all the appropriate steps from a regulatory standpoint, consumers love our product, retailers love our product and the traditional dairy producers are nervous so they are going to fight dirty," she said on a media call.

"All they are doing is drawing attention to the fact that there is a great proposition in the market that makes a difference for people and that consumers are excited about," she added.

The US federation filed a complaint with the country's National Advertising Division, arguing that  "A2 milk falsely promises consumers that its product is 'easier on digestion' as compared to conventional milk and that consumers can 'avoid digestive discomfort' and will 'feel the difference,'" according to a statement.

It alleges the research underlying A2 Milk's "claims contains errors in study design, methodology, and population selection and is unreliable and clinically insignificant."

According to the federation, NAD then referred the case to the Federal Trade Commission, when A2 Milk declined to participate in a review of its advertising claims. Radio NZ also quoted Clay Detlefsen, a senior executive at the National Milk Producers Federation, saying the case could end up in court.

Hrdlicka said the behaviour of the traditional milk producers in the US is similar to what A2 Milk saw in Australia when it first began to establish the brand.

"We have been there. We know how the story plays out and we know how to play for the long term," she said.

New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra also vigorously rubbished the science behind A2 milk until February this year when it did an about-face and formed a marketing alliance with A2 Milk.

Global rival Nestle is also now selling an A2-based infant formula in China in competition with A2's Platinum brand.

Hrdlicka also said that the company is not seeing any fallout from the US-China trade tensions, despite being focused on both markets.

"We have had no issues with respect to trade wars and dynamics at any level because we just stay focused on building out our brand for the long term," she said.

She made the comments after the company announced revenue in the four months through October rose to $368.4 million, up 40.5 percent on the same period a year ago, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose 58.5 percent to $124.2 million. Net profit was $86 million, up 64.5 percent, the company said in a trading update for its annual meeting in Melbourne.

"We have had a great year and we are off to a strong start in FY19. We have a strong brand, special culture and unique proposition, the combination of which positions us very well for the future," said Hrdlicka.

The stock was up 2.2 percent at $10.70.


----------



## Craton (28 January 2019)

First there was A2, then there was A2 Platinum Premium and Premium A2 Milk powder with Manuka honey. Surely there must be an A<insert your choice of alphanumeric here>being released soon too...


----------



## noirua (29 January 2019)

a2 milk is sold in ASDA in the UK though it is gluten free.  Priced quite high at £1.39 $2.54 per Litre - sometimes on offer at £1.00 $1.83. They went over to cartons from plastic bottles. Fresh milk is available as low as £1.09p $2.00 for 2 litres or 4 pints.
https://groceries.asda.com/aisle/milk-butter-eggs/fresh-milk/_/111623

You will notice that milk is still mixed up - sold in pints and litres. Also prices all over the shop.


----------



## Ann (1 February 2019)

I drink this stuff and have done for nearly twenty years although it doesn't taste as good as it used to, at least I can still drink it without getting sick . Do I own the shares, no! Fool that I am.

*Sequoia Fund Q4 Letter: New Positions in a2Milk, Electronic Arts & Melrose*


----------



## HelloU (1 February 2019)

gets hit with the short stick though - but survives
synlait supplies, and clover sells em little black things

they have the best corporate boxes at the footy .......... full of all u can drink ....milk.


----------



## bigdog (15 February 2019)

Motley Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/15/a2-milk-share-price-tumbles-on-china-export-concerns/

*A2 Milk share price tumbles on China export concerns*

The *A2 Milk Company Ltd* (ASX: A2M) share price is on course to finish the week with a day in the red.

At one stage on Friday the infant formula and dairy company’s shares were down over 4% to $12.20.

They have since recovered a touch but are still down over 3% at $12.33 at the time of writing.

* Why is the a2 Milk share price under pressure today? *
With no news out of the company or broker notes that I’m aware of, it looks as though the catalyst for this selling has been reports that New Zealand exporters are facing delays at Chinese ports.

According to the NZ Herald, New Zealand’s biggest seafood exporter Sanford has been impacted by these delays.

It is reportedly having issues getting salmon exports cleared through Chinese ports and authorities have not given a reason for the delay. There are concerns that this could be in retaliation to New Zealand’s recent Huawei 5G ban.

Though it is worth noting that dairy giant Fonterra hasn’t reported any issues.

A spokesman told the paper: “We enjoy a long-standing and constructive relationship with China and our many customers there. While of course we always keep a close watching brief on international trade developments, we have no cause for concern in China and aren’t experiencing any conditions in our export relationship which are out of the ordinary.”


----------



## Knobby22 (15 February 2019)

I'm not thinking of selling.
A2M is becoming less reliant on China in any case. Can't wait for the latest report.


----------



## SuperGlue (15 February 2019)

1H19 interim results: 20 February 2019


----------



## bigdog (20 February 2019)

*Encouraging is opening on New Zealand exchange after announcement today. Refer Motley report below
-- there is delay about 20 minutes
-- at NZ time 10:17 am the SP was up 7.61% or NZ$ 0.98*

*Lets hope momentum continues!!*







Motley Fool Reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/20/a2-milk-delivers-strong-half-year-result-but-softer-outlook/

*A2 Milk delivers strong half year result but softer outlook*
James Mickleboro | February 20, 2019

The *A2 Milk Company Ltd* (ASX: A2M) share price will be on watch this morning following the release of the dairy and infant formula company’s half year results.

Here is a summary of how a2 Milk Company performed in the first half compared to the prior corresponding period:

Total revenue increased 41% to NZ$613.1 million.
EBITDA rose 52.7% to NZ$218.4 million.
Net profit after tax jumped 55.1% to NZ$152.7 million.
Basic earnings per share of 20.9 NZ cents, up 52.9%.
Operating cash flow of NZ$112.3 million.
Outlook: Strong revenue growth but lower EBITDA margin.
* What were the drivers of this result? *
The majority of the company’s revenue was generated in the ANZ market. The ANZ business segment revenue increased 37.5% to NZ$418.4 million and EBITDA was up 64.9% to NZ$192 million.

Supporting this growth was its China segment, which saw its revenue rise 50.1% to NZ$171.7 million and EBITDA increase 41.6% on the prior corresponding period.

Once again it has been the company’s infant formula products driving the majority of its growth.

During the first half group infant formula revenue increased 45.3% to NZ$495.5 million. This was driven by an 82.6% increase in China label revenue, which took its consumption market share in the country to 5.7%. In Australia the company has maintained its leadership position and grown its market share to 35.7%.

The company’s Liquid Milk business had a solid half. Australian fresh milk revenue grew 11.7%, bringing its market share to 10.8%. In the United States the company’s milk revenue more than doubled after its distribution network grew to over 10,000 stores.

* What else happened in the half? *
The company advised that it is now focused on delivering continued and significant growth through its step-changing strategic investment in consumer insight, brand development, and organisational capability.

This involves accelerating its investment in building brand equity through enhanced marketing campaigns in its key markets of China, US and Australia, as well as continued investments in R&D and further development of its intellectual property.

As a result, its investment in marketing in the first half increased by 75% to NZ$45.5 million. The rate of investment in marketing will increase further in the second half as the company increases in-market brand building activities.

* Outlook. *
According to the release, management expects group revenue growth in the second half to be broadly in line with the first half.

However, the increased investment in brand building in the second half is expected to push its second half EBITDA margins lower.

As a result, management expects its full year EBITDA as a percentage of sales to be approximately 31% to 32%. As a comparison, in the first half the company’s EBITDA margin was 35.6%.

* What now? *
Although I thought this was yet another impressive half from a2 Milk, its outlook for the second half could weigh on investor sentiment today.

Whilst I feel that its investment in brand building is a smart thing to do and should support its long term growth, the market is often short sighted with such moves. As a result, I suspect there’s a small chance its shares could drop lower when the market opens. Though it is worth noting that at the time of writing the company’s NZ-listed shares are up 7%, so thankfully this doesn’t appear to be the case.

ASX ANN "Results Commentary" 6 pages
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190220/pdf/442rjkkr4kvqq0.pdf


----------



## Knobby22 (20 February 2019)

Smiles all round.
Love how growth in the USA is above 100%. China will not dare to restrict imports from this company, the wealthy will be very upset to miss out on something the USA loves. 
I was bemused with the fall in price recently, honestly many analysts have no idea.


----------



## bigdog (20 February 2019)

Great start at opening

All time high of $13.78 is in site


----------



## bigdog (20 February 2019)

Another opinion

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/a2-milk-delivers-yet-again
*A2 Milk delivers yet again*
Andrew Mitchell 
Ophir Asset Management

Never before has the Australian small and mid-cap equity market experienced such a broad variety of Australian and NZ-based businesses achieving stellar success in overseas markets. Where offshore expansions have long been an investment graveyard for larger-cap Australian businesses desperately looking for growth avenues to supplement mature domestic market positions (see National Australia Bank, QBE, AMP, Wesfarmers/Bunnings amongst others), a new cohort of globally-focused emerging Australian companies have thrived in entering new territories.

Specialist dairy and infant milk formula producer The A2 Milk Company (A2M) has been one such notable performer, a business that only six years ago was a A$210m market cap NZ-based fresh milk producer generating $48.6m in revenues from the sale of bottled A2-only milk into supermarket chains in Australia and New Zealand.

Today, the same humble Kiwi milk producer now commands a market capitalisation of over A$9.7bn, selling fresh milk and infant milk formula (IMF) products into Australia, New Zealand, China, the US and UK and will *deliver an expected ~A$1.25bn in revenue for the 2019 financial year*.

The business commands the number one market position for infant milk formula sales in Australia, already speaks for 5.7% of the $20bn Chinese infant milk formula market and recently announced A2-branded bottled milk now being sold in over 12,000 stores in the United States. It now holds more cash on its balance sheet that its entire market capitalisation in 2012.






*Key takeouts from today's result*
The recently announced first half result from the company again highlights how far the business has come in recent years and the momentum it continues to see across all geographies and product lines.

Group revenues grew +41% on the previous corresponding period, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization *(EBITDA) grew +53%*. The result was a 8-10% ‘beat’ to underlying market expectations, with the stock subsequently rising +8% on the day.

Strong performance at the margin line was particularly noteworthy at this result, with gross margins across the business coming in at a healthy 55.5% as the company benefits from increasing scale, price increases and a continued shift in sales mix towards the more profitable infant milk formula products. The margin performance provides an excellent example of the strength of the business given a material increase in recent months toward investments in marketing and brand.

*Growing footprint in China and US markets*
Infant milk formula sales into China continue to be a key driver, with the business now benefiting from landing product into China via a variety of channels. Where initially the company saw enormous growth via the cross-border e-commerce channel (where individuals would purchase tins of A2 formula in Australia, take offshore and sell to Chinese parents via online market places such as Tmall or Taobao), the company now has an in-country presence in over 12,250 Mother and Baby stores, resulting in *+83% growth in China-label tins* from the same period last year.

While still only a small market by current revenue contribution, the growth the business has experienced this half in the *United States* is worthy of mention. Fresh milk sales in the US doubled over the period, with management noting they are seeing similar parallels to the brand building experience of their initial Australian roll-out – a pleasing anecdote considering the US milk market is worth in excess of US$13 billion per year with an underlying consumer already sympathetic to the alternative dairy market. With further distribution agreements recently signed with national US supermarket chain Krogers and additional regions with Costco, Walmart and Safeway stores we expect the growth to continue to compound from here. Importantly, it was the success of the fresh milk product in the Australian market that ultimately provided the company with the credibility required to underpin the success of its now immensely popular infant milk formula business – a market opportunity within the US that isn’t yet garnering any attention.

*Significant growth opportunities still lay ahead*
With a significant amount of runway left for the business in the two largest economies in the world, we continue to maintain confidence that the company will be a significantly larger one in years to come. Pleasingly, we entered February with the stock as the second largest held position across the Ophir Funds and we very much look forward to continuing to monitor and enjoy the business’ growth from here.


I hold


----------



## Ann (21 February 2019)

*The Tiny Dairy Stock That Skyrocketed to New Zealand's Biggest*
A2 Milk Co. is giving New Zealand equity stalwarts a run for their money.

In a span of about four years, its market cap has surged more than 3,000 percent, making it New Zealand’s most valuable company. It now has a value of about NZ$10.9 billion ($7.5 billion) -- that’s larger than some of the mainstays of the nation’s bourse such as Auckland International Airport Ltd. and Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.

More...


----------



## bigdog (15 April 2019)

A2M hit all time high today of $14.61 with no announcements


----------



## Knobby22 (15 April 2019)

Yes, I almost chose it for the yearly comp but glad to own.
I saw Bell Direct think it's getting pricey but it really depends on the international story now, not just China. How much long term growth is there? How much milk, butter, cheese can the company supply?


----------



## bigdog (30 April 2019)

Wilson Asset Management report
--Wilson were into A2M early and sold too early.  Looks like they have bought back in recently

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-a2-is-crushing-the-competition-in-china

* Why A2 is crushing the competition in China *




Tobias Yao View the contributor's profile page
Wilson Asset Management
26th April, 2019


I have just returned from China, looking at how Australian goods such as infant formula are sold and marketed, given the strong Chinese demand for such products. Being able to speak with shop attendants in their native language let me get to the source of information. In this wire, I share the key takeaways.

*A2M Chinese labelling creating demand*
One retail assistant in a Shanghai mother-baby store told me she had a target to sell 100 tins of A2 Milk per month and was selling well above that. She mentioned one key reason Chinese mums are buying from the store instead of online, which is 50% cheaper, is due to the A2M’s Chinese labelling. The labels promote an active ingredient, Lactoferrin, that the stores advertise as more tailored for Chinese children, which is driving foot traffic.





_A2M dominating shelf space in Shanghai mother and baby stores. _

*Regulatory hurdles*
The *State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR)* is a market regulator created in March 2018. The new super-ministry for market regulation subsumed three ministries:


China Food and Drug Administration
State Administration of Industry and Commerce
General Administration of Quality Supervision Inspection and Quarantine.
SAMR is now significantly impacting foreign companies, especially those involved in food and pharmaceuticals. The rate of approvals by SAMR has been decreasing rapidly. From August to December 2017, 209 overseas formula recipes were approved averaging 42 approvals per month. Since January 2018 until now, only 95 foreign formula recipes were approved, averaging 6 approvals per month – an 86% decline in foreign brand approvals. Currently, there are 200 foreign applications filed and not approved.

There is a Government mandate to increase onsite inspections which is a significant disadvantage to foreign suppliers who must make their factories available to Chinese authorities. Since the onsite audit requirement was implemented *only three imported brands have been approved *at the time of my visit to China. Two of them have Chinese ownership and one is from Denmark where Crown Prince Frederik intervened and personally lobbied for the SAMR team to visit his country’s facilities.

* Point of differentiation*
Commoditised infant formula products are struggling to compete in China against incumbent brands unless they offer a point of differentiation. Some trends are products that include non-dairy nutritional items and the promotion of non-cow milk products such as goat’s milk with its associated health benefits.

*Increasing breastfeeding rates*
It is our belief that infant formula market growth will come from consumers buying more premium products - while being marginally offset by the headwinds of flat birth rates and increased levels of breastfeeding (the percentage of mothers who breastfeed have gone up from 30%-40% to 50% due to government and hospital awareness programs).

*Fight for the cities*
The key battlegrounds for infant formula providers are in tier 3 and 4 cities as opposed to tier 1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Tier 3 cities like Weifang and Baoding have a population of over 9 million and 10 million respectively so they are still lucrative markets to target. Increased investment is going into lower-tier cities and new challenger brands are trying to secure a foothold in these areas, where established brands such as A2M dominate larger wealthier cities.

*Advantage A2*
The business’ biggest competitor is Wyeth’s Illuma A2 product which sources its milk from Ireland and is yet to receive a SAMR inspection.

Brands that received registrations early such as A2M have a head start and the regulation delay is a significant advantage for A2M. This competitive advantage is material and the longer the delay for other products, the better it is for A2M.

Having already received registration, A2M should aggressively expand into mother-baby stores to take more premium shelf space and provide mothers with the peace of mind that its products are *here to stay*.

We believe that A2M can take further ground in the mother-baby store segment through tactical on-the-ground sales and marketing initiatives to promote the brand such as using incentivised sales metrics for retail assistants.

*We own A2M as a research-driven investment in WAM Capital and WAM Research. Shares in A2M closed up 14.3% for the month to date.  

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Chart list SP at $15.87 and is before opening indicated SP today April 30 2019




*


----------



## bigdog (1 May 2019)

ASX announcement today
1/05/2019  *Presentation to Macquarie Australia Conference 2019* (in Sydney)
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190501/pdf/444qrh2r26cszv.pdf










Motley Reported today
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/05/01/why-the-a2-milk-company-share-price-could-drop-lower-today/

*Why the a2 Milk Company share price could drop lower today*

James Mickleboro | May 1, 2019 | *More on: * *A2M*

The *A2 Milk Company Ltd* (ASX: A2M) share price looks likely to drop lower on Wednesday following the release of a trading update.

At the time of writing the fresh milk and infant formula company’s New Zealand-listed shares are down 3%.

*What was in the update?*
Ahead of its appearance at the *Macquarie Group Ltd* (ASX: MQG) Australia Conference, a2 Milk Company released a presentation to the market which included an update on its performance through to March 31.

For the first nine months of FY 2019 the company has grown its revenue by 42% on the prior corresponding period to NZ$938 million. Management advised that this reflects continued sales growth in nutritional products and liquid milk.

This growth rate is just ahead of what it achieved in the first half when the company reported a 41% increase in revenue to NZ$613.1 million.

However, management has advised that this was the result of volume phasing associated with regulatory changes. This pulled forward orders and is expected to balance out in the fourth quarter.

In light of this, management has reiterated its revenue growth outlook for the second half to be broadly in line with the first half.

Management also held firm with its EBITDA margin guidance. This is expected to be notably lower than the first half due to its increased investment in marketing activities, resulting in a full year EBITDA margin in the range 31% to 32%.

*What else was new?*
The company has continued to win a greater slice of the Chinese infant formula market. Its share has grown to 6%, up from 5.4% at the end of December.

This appears to have been driven by its increased footprint in the massive market. The company’s mother and baby store distribution now stands at ~13,600 stores, up from ~12,250 at the end of December.

Management also advised of further market share gains for both its fresh milk and infant formula in Australia and New Zealand. Its fresh milk has an ~11% value share and a2 Platinum infant formula has a ~36.8% value share, compared to 10.8% and 35.7%, respectively, at the end of December.

Finally, more progress has been made in the United States, with its distribution increasing to ~12,700 stores. The company has also extended its portfolio to include premium and natural coffee creamers.

*Should you invest?*
Earlier this week a2 Milk Company’s shares raced to an all-time high. I suspect that some investors were betting on a guidance upgrade today and have been hitting the sell button (in New Zealand) when one failed to materialise.

Due to its strong long-term growth potential, I feel this selling ought to be considered a buying opportunity for investors that are prepared to make a buy and hold investment.






A2M my tip included for 2019 Year tipping comp
Also holder since 2015


----------



## Knobby22 (4 June 2019)

Sold out today.


----------



## bigdog (4 June 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Sold out today.




Good call

At end of day


----------



## IFocus (4 June 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Sold out today.




Knobby you can expect a bounce tomorrow


----------



## kid hustlr (4 June 2019)

Jeez this news is not going to help my milk based portfolio for the full year comp!!!


----------



## Miner (4 June 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Sold out today.



Sharing report from Bell Potter. I am sharing does not imply I believe BP's reports as many times they have advised buy for many stocks which kept on moving south and BP kept on revising their target but kept unchanged the buy recommendation. So DYOR. DNH.


----------



## aus_trader (5 June 2019)

IFocus said:


> Knobby you can expect a bounce tomorrow



Looking at the US markets rallying hard overnight, there must be a crystal ball into the future that IFocus on.


----------



## Knobby22 (5 June 2019)

aus_trader said:


> Looking at the US markets rallying hard overnight, there must be a crystal ball into the future that IFocus on.



Better stuff around than A2M. It's fully priced.


----------



## bigdog (5 June 2019)

ATM New Zealand (A2 Milk) today is currently down 41 cents






https://www.theage.com.au/business/...d-by-us-china-trade-wars-20190604-p51ufn.html

*Australia's infant milk formula stocks spoiled by US-China trade wars*




*Elizabeth Knight*
Business columnist

June 5, 2019 — 12.05am

Australian producers of baby milk formula have become the latest group ensnared by the destructive tentacles of the US-China trade war.

Share prices of Bellamy’s Organic and A2 Milk have been battered this week as Chinese policy makers declared they wanted their local producers to capture a bigger share of the market.

A2 shares lost 8.4 percent and Bellamy’s shares were down more than 5 per cent on Tuesday - after both stocks lost around 3 percent on Monday afternoon.

The biggest exporters of infant milk formula to China are from the US and Europe. But for Australia and New Zealand, the Chinese market is a significant source of growth.

“For A2 Milk Company and Bellamy’s, the risks are that their effective addressable market in China will shrink,” Morgan Stanley analyst Thomas Kierath said in a report.

A report from China’s National Development and Reform Commission kickstarted the sell off in A2 and Bellamy’s late on Monday.

The extent to which the US and China are prepared to damage other nations in this process is becoming more evident each day.

While the report made it clear that authorities want to increase China’s domestic market share to beyond 60 per cent, it was less clear on how that would be achieved.

At this stage there is no suggestion of using traditional weapons like tariffs. Rather, the application of heightened regulations on cross border e-commerce sales and stronger checks around quality will be employed.

The move could impact the flourishing Daigou trade - which sees products like infant formula and vitamins bought off the shelves of Australian supermarkets and chemists, and then sold online in China.

China’s quest to self-supply its needs locally feeds into the trade rhetoric being employed by both the US and China at the moment.

It’s a $27 billion industry in China wants to be 60 per cent self sufficient - a significant leap from the 47 percent level it is today.

According to Euromonitor International, the top four infant formula firms in China are all based in the U.S. and Europe, accounting for 40 percent of the market.

The extent to which the US and China are prepared to damage other nations in this process is becoming more evident each day.

The trouble with China’s attempts to push its people into buying local baby formula product is that it requires consumers to overcome a level of mistrust they have with the quality - asking parents to take a chance on what they feed their babies.

Back in 2008 the image of Chinese baby formula producers was tarnished when some were found to have been contaminated with chemicals.

This opened the floodgates to foreign suppliers including those from Australia.

Australian producers have always been aware that their Chinese sales are vulnerable to regulatory changes, and as recently as last year had to deal with additional requirements for registration.

But the New Zealand and Australian suppliers have been trusted by Chinese consumers around quality.

The second leg of China’s plan is to encourage local companies to buy offshore supply and motivate offshore producers to invest in China.

It is too early to guess whether this may make Australia or New Zealand companies potential merger or acquisition targets.

At this point they look more like victims of the Trump induced trade war.


----------



## IFocus (5 June 2019)

aus_trader said:


> Looking at the US markets rallying hard overnight, there must be a crystal ball into the future that IFocus on.




No crystal ball and I am being unfair on Knobby, lost count the times I have sold a stock to watch it take off (I am hopeless as an investor) a couple of beauties years ago sold CTX at $1.80 and WPL at $11 have a look at the charts perfect timing  (loser  )


----------



## bigdog (5 June 2019)

A2M up $0.43 this morning but lost $1.23 yesterday


----------



## aus_trader (5 June 2019)

IFocus said:


> No crystal ball and I am being unfair on Knobby, lost count the times I have sold a stock to watch it take off (I am hopeless as an investor) a couple of beauties years ago sold CTX at $1.80 and WPL at $11 have a look at the charts perfect timing  (loser  )



Hey mate, me too. My timing is pretty bad in terms of calling the tops. Stocks usually go higher without me ! Same with calling the bottoms, usually goes much lower as if the rug is being pulled from underneath !
I was just trying to bring a bit of humour to the thread.


----------



## aus_trader (5 June 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Better stuff around than A2M. It's fully priced.



The valuations for higher prices are not supported by the consensus either, similar to the Bell Potter report that Miner presented earlier.






But broker reports are a guide only, speculations on stock's future earnings etc can push prices to dizzying heights at times. It's good to lock in profits when stocks do that though because sooner or later reality will bite.


----------



## Knobby22 (5 June 2019)

I wanted to sell it the day before but needed one more day to own it 12 months and get the 50% CGT discount.


----------



## aus_trader (5 June 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> I wanted to sell it the day before but needed one more day to own it 12 months and get the 50% CGT discount.



I never look at how long I have held a stock when it comes to selling, but if you can time it for the CGT discount it's worth it.


----------



## Ann (5 June 2019)

Looking at yesterdays close and the RSI which has speared into oversold it may be a good buying opportunity and it also hit the $13 support line, plus it is still above the 200dsma.


----------



## notting (11 June 2019)

That fall was due to an article in the fin review that said something about China getting a leg over it with their own stuff.  I did not read the article to understand how valid it might be however -






*I knew it was a raid.*


----------



## aus_trader (11 June 2019)

notting said:


> That fall was due to an article in the fin review that said something about China getting a leg over it with their own stuff.  I did not read the article to understand how valid it might be however -
> 
> View attachment 95349
> 
> ...



They did it to APT too a while back. They must have special deals and commissions set up with either stock brokers to pick up stocks cheaply or with short-sellers to take a huge short term profit from the raid. 'Loot and repeat' seems to be their game. I have stopped listening to their articles ever since they seem to have lost their independence in reporting and have started going under the desks of Fundies and Brokers to get their promotions !


----------



## notting (11 June 2019)

aus_trader said:


> They did it to APT too a while back. They must have special deals and commissions set up with either stock brokers to pick up stocks cheaply or with short-sellers to take a huge short term profit from the raid. 'Loot and repeat' seems to be their game. I have stopped listening to their articles ever since they seem to have lost their independence in reporting and have started going under the desks of Fundies and Brokers to get their promotions !




They were notorious for this before sky news business channel came along.
They seem to have gotten straight back into it as soon as that has gone off air.
No counter opinions in the public domain on the day. Ramp and trash after taking positions or wanting to!
They are dick heads


----------



## bigdog (10 July 2019)

A2M up today and chart displayed is 5 day week and SP approaching the all time high of $16.08






What does UBS know?

ASX Announcement yesterday reported UBS now substantial shareholder now 5.23%
9/07/2019 7:30:33 AM *Becoming a substantial holder*






Motley Fool reported today
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/07/10/why-the-a2-milk-company-share-price-rocketed-higher-today/

*Why the a2 Milk Company share price rocketed higher today*
James Mickleboro | July 10, 2019

The *a2 Milk Company Ltd* (ASX: A2M) share price has been amongst the best performers on the ASX 200 index this morning.

At the time of writing the fresh milk and infant formula company’s shares are up 5% to $15.20.

This latest gain means a2 Milk Company’s shares have rocketed 46% higher since the start of the year.

*Why is the a2 Milk Company share price charging higher today?*
Investors have been snapping up the company’s shares this morning after a2 Milk Company was the subject of a positive broker note out of UBS.

According to the note, UBS has upgraded a2 Milk Company’s shares from a neutral rating to buy with an increased price target of NZ$17.50 (A$16.68).

This equates to potential upside of almost 10% for its shares over the next 12 months even after factoring in today’s solid gain.

UBS is bullish on the company due to its strong position in the world’s largest infant milk formula market – China.

Whilst the broker does believe there are downside risks such as regulation and changes to e-commerce laws in China, it believes the company is well-placed to mitigate the risks and sees significant growth potential in the country given its premium and differentiated brand.

UBS isn’t the only broker that is positive on a2 Milk Company right now.

Goldman Sachs has added the company to its conviction buy list with a price target of A$17.40.

According to the note, its analysts believe the company’s shares are attractively priced given its long term growth potential. It expects a2 Milk to grow its earnings by a CAGR of 25% between FY 2019 and FY 2021.

912


----------



## bigdog (12 July 2019)

A2M $15.840 +$0.060 +0.38% today at Fri 12 Jul 2019 10:37 AM (Sydney time)
*Financial Review reported today*

*a2 Milk to grow out of baby formula*
Patrick Durkin

a2 Milk chief Jayne Hrdlicka faces one of the toughest jobs in corporate Australia. Shares in the dairy company may have jumped almost 25-fold in the past three years, but a2 is seen by many as a one-trick pony.

The vulnerable side of a2 was on full display last month when China announced plans to become 60 per cent self-sufficient in the $US22 billion ($31 billion) infant formula market, wiping more than $1 billion from the high-performing stock.

The shares have since recovered but the incident underpinned the need for Hrdlicka to grow a2 beyond supplying infant formula to China.

In an exclusive interview with BOSS published in The Australia Financial Review today, Hrdlicka maps out a three-point plan to expand the business both geographically and by product lines.

“Our priorities are firstly our core products in our core markets: milk, powdered milk and infant formula,” she says indicating the ambition to reach full potential in the two biggest consumer markets the US and China. “The second priority is new products in the core markets with our core consumers.”

An example is a2’s Smart Nutrition, a protein-based drink built on a2 fresh milk with added vitamins and minerals, being launched in Australia and China. “Our third priority is new markets,’’ Ms Hrdlicka reveals pointing to the appeal of the brand in Asia. ‘‘There are definitely opportunities to go after new markets, and how and when we do that is entirely dependent on how we go in scaling up to do one and two. We would likely focus in the region [other Asian markets].”

INSIDE TODAY

The Tennis Australia president is currently in London for Wimbledon with her 87-year-old father, who defected to the US from Czechoslovakia when he was 16, and has been a major influence on her life and career.

Ms Hrdlicka was appointed to a2 last year after the three men who masterminded a2’s rise, Cliff Cook, Geoff Babidge and Peter Nathan, sought to lift the top 100 company beyond its $10 billion market cap. Today the company is worth $11.6 billion.

The health benefits of a2 remain controversial with milk free of the A1 beta-casein protein said to be easier to digest and absorb and reduces the risk of diabetes, heart disease and digestive problems.

However the Chinese have flocked to the premium luxury brand, which has captured more than 6 per cent of the market. UBS predicts a2 could capture more than 10 per cent by 2025.

Analysts have high expectations for a strong financial year result in August with UBS upgrading its ‘‘neutral’’ recommendation to ‘‘buy’’ on Wednesday, sending the shares up by more than 5 per cent.

The shares are now heading back towards $16 and are up more than 50 per cent for the year.

‘‘A2 Milk is in a unique position in that it has a differentiated, premium brand that is well regarded, yet under penetrated [in China],’’ the UBS note said.

Morgans’ Belinda Moore says it’s been one of the ASX’s ‘‘best organic growth stories’’. ‘‘But they have been printing cash so the question is what can they do to utilise their balance sheet strength.’’


----------



## bigdog (19 July 2019)

*A2M hit all time high of $16.27 today *











*Motley reported yesterday*
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/07/18/why-the-a2-milk-company-ltd-share-price-is-at-a-record-high/

*Why the a2 Milk Company Ltd share price is at a record high*
Tom Richardson | July 18, 2019

The *a2 Milk Company Ltd* (ASX: A2M) share price hit a record high of $16.09 in trade today and could have further to rise if analysts at Goldman Sachs and UBS are on the money in handing out 12-month share price targets even higher than today’s.

I also made a2 Milk my top stock to buy in July when it changed hands for $13.86 and not for nothing either.

The stock looked good value back then given it continues to boast very strong growth rates with an outlook supported by its success in China, Australia and the US. 

a2’s core business is the sale of infant informula with it reporting 42% revenue growth for the nine months to March 31 2019 with a forecast for EBITDA margins to stay in the range of 31% to 32%. These are some impressive numbers given the business is reinvesting heavily in sales and marketing expenses to grow in large markets like China and the U.S. 

a2 also has a strong balance sheet with no debt and NZ$288 million cash on hand, as such I expect management will one day in the future start to pay a dividend or potentially even buy back shares on issue.  

Its return on equity is also high at 37.5% in FY 2019 and 35.2% in FY 2018. Generally when you can find assets this profitable and growing at strong rates shares are likely to get bid up higher over time in my opinion. 

While most investor attention on a2 is understandably focused on the high-growth, but unpredictable China market, I also think over the longer term it has an excellent opportunity to grow sales of its supermarket milk in the US.

As at January 2019 it was being distributed via 12,000 stores including at leading chains such as Walmart, Safeway and Costco. If this business takes off I expect the market will once again be eager to bid the shares higher. 

Overall for anyone looking to play the rising Chinese consumer theme I think a2 Milk is definitely the best stock to own.

However, of course investors must remember that as a highly-valued growth stock it has considerable downside risk if it doesn’t deliver on investors’ great expectations.


----------



## bigdog (23 July 2019)

New Zealand press article yesterday

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12251789

* a2 Milk hits record high after favourable broker reports, study *
22 Jul, 2019 5:46pm

A2 Milk share's share price hit a record high on the NZX today as the company benefited from favourable academic and broker reports.

The stock closed at $17.13, up 28 cents from Friday's close, and the stock's highest ever point.

Harbour Asset Management senior research analyst Oyvinn Rimer said the stock appeared to be benefiting from bullish reports in the lead up to its annual result next month.

In one of them, a study funded by a2 Milk and published in the Journal of Paediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition looked into milk intolerance among Chinese preschool children concluded that a2 Milk was beneficial.

The study was carried out in 2016 and published this month.

"Replacing conventional milk with A2 milk reduced gastrointestinal symptoms associated with milk intolerance in Chinese preschool children, with corresponding improvements in aspects of cognitive performance," the report said.

A2 milk carries just the a2 beta protein, unlike standard milk, which has both the a1 and a2 beta protein.

Another report from Australian broking house Morgans released research that a2 milk was continuing to gain market share.

A third report carried on Bloomberg said prices for a2 Milk's Australian labelled a2 formula had firmed in recent weeks.

It also said there had been no discernible impact arising from the tightening of rules surrounding the unofficial "daigoui" trade into China - which remains an important part of a2 Milk's business model. "Out of all the three reports today, all of them are incrementally positive," Rimer told the Herald.


----------



## Miner (1 August 2019)

While A2M is ramped up by Motley Fool and some brokers, and well supported by the market, the research from BP however differs. It has declared A2M as a sell with a target price $12 around.
DNH


----------



## bigdog (13 August 2019)

2019 Full Year results reporting scheduled for Wednesday August 21 2019






https://insidefmcg.com.au/2019/08/13/jd-strengthens-partnership-with-a2-milk/

*JD strengthens partnership with a2 Milk*
August 13, 2019
Ruth Hogan

Chinese e-commerce company JD has expanded its strategic partnership with The a2 Milk Company, providing a welcome boost to the ANZ dairy giant in the wake of China’s plans to increase local formula output and reduce reliance on imports.

JD Worldwide said it will help a2 Milk to bring more high-quality dairy products to the Chinese market through tailored marketing campaigns both online and offline.

China is a top priority market for a2 Milk, with many Chinese parents turning to the company’s milk formula, which is designed to be easier for children to digest.

In June, the Chinese government revealed plans to exceed 60 per cent self-sufficiency for baby formula and improve the quality of domestic brands, a move which could harm Australian formula companies in the market.

The a2 Milk Company introduced its products to Chinese consumers through JD Worldwide in 2015, and has had an impressive track record with the e-commerce giant to date.

During this year’s “6.18” sales festival, a2 Milk was the top-selling brand on JD Worldwide on peak day, June 18, and its platinum baby milk powder was the best-selling product. Sales of a2 products on this day increased 210 per cent compared to the previous year.

As a participant in JD.com’s “Brand Competitiveness Plan,” a2 Milk was provided marketing solutions to increase sales performance and build up brand recognition.

The milk company received guidance on marketing campaign timing, choice of promotional channels, and help in identifying the target audience for a campaign.

JD helped identify customers who had indicated interest in a2 products but had not yet made a purchase and sent coupons to this high potential group.

The ROI of coupons during the month of the campaign was 3.6 times higher than the typical average, according to JD.com and fans of the a2 Milk online store on JD Worldwide surpassed 1 million users.

“China is the top growth market for The a2 Milk Company, and JD.com’s expertise in innovative marketing has consistently allowed us to make the most of this exciting opportunity,” said Xiao Li, CEO of a2 Greater China.

“Last year, we launched blockchain partnership with JD, using a QR code on a2 Milk products to show logistics information at every stage of delivery. This is just one of the ways we are working together to give customers more peace of mind and confidence in their purchases.”

Products from Australia and New Zealand have a reputation for safety and quality, and consistently sell well on the site, according to JD.com. Health supplements, maternal and baby products, wine, milk and cosmetics are among the best-selling categories.

“The a2 Milk Company’s premium dairy products are an increasingly popular choice for Chinese parents across the country,” said Chris Cui, Head of JD Worldwide.

“As China’s largest retailer, JD has unique capabilities to offer a2 Milk assistance in terms of marketing solutions, logistics and technology, helping a2 continue to grow their market share.”

In addition to a2 Milk, popular brands including Swisse, Blackmores, Devondale, Penfolds and Jacob’s Creek have also seen impressive growth in sales on the JD platform, with sales of Penfolds products increasing by more than 200 per cent year-on-year during first 30 minutes on June 18.


----------



## bigdog (21 August 2019)

ASX Announcements today
21/08/2019 7:30 AM  Results Commentary FY19 (file uploaded below)

*The NZ market did not like today's report and currently trading down $NZ 2.47at 10:45 NZ time  (delayed) *






1All figures are in New Zealand Dollars (NZ$) unless otherwise stated.
2All comparisons are with the 12months ended 30 June 2018 (FY18), unless otherwise stat


Morgans expects the infant formula and fresh milk company to deliver a stronger than expected result. The broker expects EBITDA of NZ $431.3 million, which is higher than the market consensus of NZ$420.6 million.

Reported lower EBITDA of $413.6 million –up 46.1%

*The NZ market did not like today's report and currently trading down $NZ 2.47at 10:45 NZ time  (delayed) *






053


----------



## bigdog (21 August 2019)

A2M is doing very poorly today

Did have low earlier of $13.20 which was down $2.80

28,877 trades on ASX $139 million at 11:52 am

Is anyone buying?


----------



## Tyler Durden (21 August 2019)

Very surprised with the drop today. I only had a quick look, but nothing negative stood out for me from the report. If I was brave I would have bought more today.


----------



## sptrawler (21 August 2019)

Tyler Durden said:


> Very surprised with the drop today. I only had a quick look, but nothing negative stood out for me from the report. If I was brave I would have bought more today.



It certainly has been a strong performer, has any independent studies been carried out, to confirm the health claims A2 makes?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-06-19/dr-karl-a1-vs-a2-milk/9879800
Some are probably questioning the price difference compared to perceived benefits, as things are getting tighter in the economy. 
Also they are at a PE of 50, which obviously has a lot of growth factored in.
Just my opinion, I don't hold A2M


----------



## Knobby22 (21 August 2019)

Great company but priced for perfection.


----------



## Miner (6 September 2019)

Another astonishing research note from Bell Potter declaring A2 M - SELL price prediction was $12.25 when it was $13.4 (cents omitted for illustration purpose) - dated 3rd Sept.
The today share price is $14.4 - When we get a garland of shoes to such expert doomsayers or was it deliberate to divert public attention to enable their key clients to make money?
.
*Shares*
*Code* * Last* *$+/-* *% Chg* *Bid* *Offer* *Open* *High* *Low* *Volume* *Options* *Warrants & Structured Products* *Chart* *Status* *Announcements
A2M  ** 14.400  
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




 0.220 1.55% 14.400 14.480 14.400 14.560 14.320 2,851,206


----------



## galumay (6 September 2019)

Miner, I think Bell Potter are ridiculously bullish for a cyclical agricultural commodity business like A2M, despite its stonk status, one day value and price will coincide and a lot of capital will go up in smoke IMO. Hopefully I am wrong for the sake of current speculators.


----------



## scarlettsmith694 (9 September 2019)

Is there any stock reference for ASX 200 futures..


----------



## bigdog (19 November 2019)

The Annual Meeting of The a2 Milk Company Limited will be held at 10:30am New Zealand time (8:30am Australian Eastern Daylight Time) on 19 November 2019.

We encourage shareholders unable to attend the meeting in person, to participate in the Annual Meeting online at www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/a2MC19.

ASX announcements posted this morning






Must be VG as NZ share price at opening today was up $NZ 1.80 or 14%
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/ATM






I hold

436


----------



## bigdog (19 November 2019)

The Annual Meeting of The a2 Milk Company Limited held today

High today of $14.20 at start today

12 month high was $17.30 July 30 2019






CEO Jayne Hrdlicka revealed that she expects a2 Milk to deliver revenue in the range of NZ$780 million to NZ$800 million during the first half of the financial year. This compares to NZ$613.1 million in the prior corresponding period. Which implies year on year growth of 27.2% to 30.5%

China label infant nutrition sales are forecast to be approximately NZ$135 million, representing a growth rate of ~84%. CBEC infant nutrition sales are forecast to be approximately NZ$155 million, representing a growth rate of ~54%

a2 Milk’s margins are anticipated to be better than expected. In the first half its EBITDA margin is expected to be in the range of 31% to 32%. And while the full year EBITDA margin will be softer than this, it is also expected to be stronger than previously communicated.

Jane said “Overall, for FY20 we anticipate continued strong revenue growth across our key regions supported by brand and marketing investment in China and the US and the development of both capability and infrastructure to support in-market execution.”











I hate to think how much money shorters will lose today, but I bet they had made a lot of money ramming this stock down as well.

I hold

462


----------



## Craton (28 November 2019)

Thanks to our Chinese friends, interest in our milk companies is elevated.


----------



## Miner (9 December 2019)

Good morning all!
A2M made an innocent announcement of departure of the CEO almost immediately.
The published reasons work and life balance with increased travel between USA, China  and NZ.
No pun and fare call.
But one would question that the CEO is the strategic lead of a company. The CEO must have known and recommended the expansion and organized succession in an orderly manner than announcing an overnight notice.
Two follow ups from a Miner.
1. Has the CEO failed on a negotiated term to compensate for additional travels and Board showed her emergency exit door ?
2. The CEO made some wrong decisions strategically and board asked her to go.
Market will read and punters would take the opportunity. Opportunity for SM1 holders ?
DNH and watching market and fellow ASF .


----------



## bigdog (9 December 2019)

The A2 Milk share price in New Zealand has dropped $NZ1.01 or 6.7% after today's announcement

She has a long history of selling her shares as they vest, (did that repeatedly with her Qantas shares).

She had added nothing to the company and the board need to accept their share of blame in this appalling fiasco.

Wait for ASX to open - then the real action starts.

Key will be the shorters today imo - do they short more or use the opportunity to cover.


----------



## bigdog (9 December 2019)

Yes big sell off today











004


----------



## bigdog (9 December 2019)

Found this New Zealand article

*A2 Milk should be 'held to account' over CEO departure - Shareholders Association*
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118044514/a2-milk-appoints-interim-chief-executive

A2's handling of the sudden departure of its chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka has been blasted by the Shareholders Association, which has described it as "a classic example" of why it opposes "golden handshakes, time-only payments and the like".

Shares in A2 Milk Company tumbled more than 6 per cent on Monday morning in the wake of the company's unexpected announcement that Hrdlicka's would step down immediately, before recovering somewhat to trade down 3.4 per cent in mid-afternoon trading.

Board members rushed to assure analysts and shareholders that Hrdlicka was leaving because of the demands of travel on her personal life.

A2 chairman David Hearn said the main factor was the amount of travel involved in A2's strategic plan, which would place "significant time and increased travel demands on the chief executive, given that our core growth markets are China and the US".


But he said at an investor briefing that he was limited in what he could say because of confidentiality provisions in relation to Hrdlicka's departure.

Shareholders Association chief executive Michael Midgley said it deplored A2's handling of the hiring and stepping down of Hrdlicka.

She knew A2 was a "worldwide company" when she took on the job, he said.

"It should not have come as a surprise that there was going to be a lot of travelling.

"The A2 board must be held to account. If there are any outstanding payments, other than base salary to the resignation date, then the board must use every legal avenue to deny them to Hrdlicka," he said.

"We would expect the A2 board to have had a catch-all 'board discretion' clause in the contract that will allow this. If not, this in itself is a glaring omission."

It was disappointing there were confidentiality provisions in relation to her departure, he said.

"'Confidentiality' is a very convenient excuse in these situations and may obscure other problems that shareholders have a right to know. As it stands shareholders will have every right to wonder if their money is disappearing into a confidential black hole."

Midgley described A2's board as "naive and excessively generous".

Hearn said A2's board had recruited Hrdlicka for her "experience and ability to develop and implement strategy" and her resignation was done by agreement.

She will be replaced by former managing director Geoffrey Babidge, while the company looks for a permanent replacement.

A2 reaffirmed its previous guidance for the year. First half revenue was expected to be between $780 million and $800m, and all other key financial metrics remained "strong and within our expectations", the company said.

Analyst Nick Dravitzki of Devon Funds Management said the resignation was "clearly an unusual and surprising turn of events for a CEO to leave in such a relatively short space of time".

However, Hrdlicka had been a "polarising" figure and it was notable that the company had replaced her temporarily with its very popular former chief executive.

Chelsea Leadbetter, senior equity analyst at Forsyth Barr, said it was difficult to know the fulls ins and outs, "but having Geoff [Babidge] back is obviously a good thing".Analysts had struggled to understand some of the strategic comments coming out of the company. But A2 had given good guidance at its annual meeting, abating some of those concerns.

"It's a business that is clearly moving really fast and there's a lot changing quite quickly, so I appreciate it's probably hard for them too."In a statement, Hrdlicka said she was delighted with the progress A2 had made, but the next phase of the company's strategy was going to be "too difficult to manage alongside my other commitments whilst also managing the health and wellness priorities of my family and me".

Hrdlicka provoked controversy when she sold off $4.36m worth of her shares after only two months in the job last year. The sale was granted by the A2 board as compensation for forgoing certain benefits when she left Qantas

She made another trade of more than half her shares last month, cashing up over $2m worth of shares to meet tax obligations "arising from the vesting of her time-based rights," also with the board's approval.

Her earnings last year totalled A$2.08m ($2.19m) in a fixed remuneration payment of A$1.5m and a "transition benefit" of A$586,666.

She was also owed a "potential short term incentive" payment of A$1.8m for the year, which would be paid after the publication of the audited results. If received, that would take her total pay to A$3.88m.

Prior to joining the company, Hrdlicka was chief executive at Australian budget airline Jetstar for five years, having previously led the business transformation at Qantas from 2010 to 2012.

She also served as a non-executive director of Woolworths from 2010 to 2016.

In her earlier career, Hrdlicka was a partner at Bain & Company, where she was focused on consumer orientated businesses. She is also the current non-executive president of Tennis Australia.

Federated Farmers dairy chairman Chris Lewis said Hrdlicka's abrupt resignation would raise questions for farmers.

However, it was unlikely to impact them directly as the company collected its milk from Fonterra and Synlait.

"A lot of farmers have been curious about A2 because it's been a bit of a superstar in the last few years and some have started breeding to build A2 herds," he said.

"This will make them wonder, is it just a business issue or is there something else? Is there new science?"

A2 milk comes from cows that naturally produce milk with the A2 version of beta-casein, rather than the A1 version of the protein, which can impact the digestive system and has been linked to ailments including irritable bowel syndrome, eczema and diabetes.

The milk's popularity had soared in recent years, taking the The A2 Milk Company's share price with it.

At the end of December 2009, its shares were trading for 0.05 cents each. By the end of this November, they were changing hands for $15.52.

That's a growth rate of 18159 per cent.

Mark Lister, of Craigs Investment Partners, said A2 "took the cake" on a decade of great returns for stocks in general. "A $100 investment in A2 back then would today be worth a spectacular $18,082."


----------



## bigdog (10 December 2019)

Great having Geoff Babidge back is obviously a good thing

I pretty much doubt if the decision to hire Jayne was entirely up to Geoff. He probably liked her credentials and endorsed her based on what she offered at the time of interview and further discussions.

Nice package for Geoff - interesting that the STI bonus is entirely at discretion of Board.

ASX announcement yesterday
9/12/2019 2:41:47 PM  Interim CEO - Material terms of employment











113


----------



## Boggo (10 December 2019)

Seems that nothing has changed with Jayne.

My concerns over a year ago based on her past performance...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/998066/
and
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/998202/


----------



## bigdog (13 February 2020)

ASX announcement today13/02/2020 7:30:46 AM   Response to Synlait's earnings and outlook announcement





Synlait made a profit of $82m last year and were forecasting similar growth to previous year. Now downgraded to $70 to 85m as a  a result of increased costs and reduction in purchases from non a2 customers. a2 still continuing to grow.

Synlait reported Coronavirus is not impacting demand or distribution channels.

A2 Milk New Zealand is currently down 1.3%





SM1 announcement today "Synlait updates full year 2020 guidance outlook"
13/02/2020 7:30:26 AM Synlait updates full year 2020 guidance outlook





028


----------



## bigdog (27 February 2020)

ASX Announcements today





27/02/2020 7:30:26 AM 10 Half Year Results Commentary (uploaded below)






For the six months ended December 31, a2 Milk Company delivered revenue of NZ$806.7 million and EBITDA of NZ$263.2 million. This was an increase of 31.6% and 20.5%, respectively, over the corresponding period. The latter equates to an EBITDA margin of 32.6%.

This compares favourably to management’s guidance of revenue in the range of NZ$780 million to NZ$800 million with an EBITDA margin of 31% to 32%. Management advised that its stronger EBITDA margin was driven by an improved gross margin, which is benefiting from a continued mix shift to infant formula, as well as improved price yield.

Net profit after tax came in 21.1% higher than the prior corresponding period to NZ$184.9 million and earnings per share rose 20.6% to 25.15 NZ cents.

Operating cash flow was solid at NZ$160.6 million, leaving the company with a closing cash balance of NZ$618.4 million.

A2M expects strong revenue growth across its key regions in the second half. This is expected to be supported by its increased marketing investment in China and the USA as well as the ongoing development of organisational capability to support the execution of its strategy.

A2M acknowledges that there is uncertainty around the potential impact to supply chains and consumer demand in China resulting from coronavirus outbreak.

Management continues to forecast a full year EBITDA margin in the range of 29% to 30% due to its higher marketing spend and increased cost of goods sold.

242


----------



## bigdog (29 February 2020)

UBS have retained their buy rating and lifted the price target on this infant formula company’s shares to NZ$18.50 (A$17.69). 

UBS were impressed with a2 Milk Company’s half year results. 

Stronger than forecast margins, despite the U.S. fresh milk business posting a larger than expected loss.


----------



## bigdog (12 March 2020)

ASX announcement today

*a2 Milk brand expands into Canadian market under licence*






496


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 March 2020)

A2M hasn't suffered, during the recent sell-off (plotting 12 month price action *versus *the XJO, below). But you'd need a strong stomach to want to stay onboard, seeing how the shareprice reacts to every bit of news.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 April 2020)

what downturn?  A2M at all-time high


----------



## bigdog (22 April 2020)

ASX Announcement today
22/04/2020 7:30:06 AM   *Trading update & FY20 Outlook* (file uploaded below)

A2M has provided guidance for the full year. It currently expects revenue in the range of NZ$1,700 million to NZ$1,750 million and an EBITDA margin in the range of 31% to 32%. This assumes that planned marketing activity for FY 2020 of NZ$200 million, weighted to the second half, will be fully expended prior to the year-end.

This compares to its February guidance for “strong revenue growth” in the second half and a full year EBITDA margin in the range of 29% to 30%. It will also be a big lift on the revenue of NZ$1,304.5 million and EBITDA of NZ$413.6 million it achieved in FY 2019.

The top end of its guidance range implies revenue of NZ$1,750 million and EBITDA of NZ$560 million. This would be a 34.1% and 35.4% increase, respectively, on the prior corresponding period.

The A2M share price this morning in New Zealand (ATM) is currently up 3.34% (about 10:25 AM NZ time)




















093


----------



## Boggo (23 April 2020)

I sold out of A2M on the 20th as it came off it's high.
When I saw the report (above) I thought I had stuffed up and jumped too early.

I have been waiting for a cross above $19.00 to re-enter but I think at the moment anyway that I may have just been lucky to escape.
Just waiting now for it's next move ??


----------



## makteb (25 April 2020)

G'day all,

I am new to Aussie Forum.  I have been trading over 15 years and this is my first forum.  I have deliberately not joined forums to avoid noise and derailing thoughts allowing me to focus on information provided by text books on how to trade.  I have now joined Aussie stocks to seek further enlightenment beyond what i have self taught and learnt.  There are more mistakes for me to learn to become a better investor/trader.

The beginning of this thread to when i write this, I would be interested if anyone has gone back who has traded this stock and analysed what they have done wrong or right.  More importantly what they have learnt from the experience to benefit their trading into the future.  Particularly their emotional or disciplinary approach.

A2M has performed well like many other companies.

I will share with you my experience from 2015 on A2M.

1. Read up on the company, it was a small cap stock.
2. I tried to understand its product(s), its niche and what the company wanted to do.
3. This was a long term hold.
4. No activity directly related to A2M until 2019 where I sold a third.

I learnt from small cap stocks and IPO, one strategy is  to hold.  Any company requires time to grow and penetrate the market.  Yes A2M could have flopped.  I have had losses, all traders do.
By avoiding the fixation on price and long term hold, it has been a fruitful strategy.  But not always.

With the remaining holdings, I will use it for options strategy.  Options has been my focus for the last 5 years, however the Australian market lacks liquidity.

At the start of the thread, I was hoping for a boring thread where everyone just bought and held.  Quite a colourful thread.

How am i better today than last week?


----------



## Skate (25 April 2020)

makteb said:


> G'day all, I am new to Aussie Forum.




@makteb welcome to the ASF community, new members always have an interesting story to tell from their unique perspective & it evident with 15 years under your belt you would have a few. 

*Ed Seykota once said*
“There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.” so I'm guessing you fall into the latter.

*Just as a refresher*
Use the search feature if looking for specific information but in the meantime check out the "Dump it here" thread - a thread dedicated in the hope of helping others in their journey. If you want to pass on some information you have found helpful feel free to make a post. Have a read of a few posts, the first post can be found here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1005967/

*What's a "Dalmador"*
If you are curious what a "Dalmador Trading Strategy" is, it can be found here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1069564/ There are a multitude of posts from member that are an interesting read littered throughout the thread. 

*Check out the "Dump it here" thread*
Is this a blatant plug for you to have a read of the "Dump it here" thread - YOU BET IT IS.. 

Welcome aboard, thanks for joining the best "Stock Forum" on the planet.

Skate.


----------



## makteb (24 June 2020)

Boggo said:


> I sold out of A2M on the 20th as it came off it's high.
> When I saw the report (above) I thought I had stuffed up and jumped too early.
> 
> I have been waiting for a cross above $19.00 to re-enter but I think at the moment anyway that I may have just been lucky to escape.
> ...



Options on this asset has been fruitful from my experience.
Recently sold a $19.50 call.

Have you considered a covered call as an exit strategy?


----------



## bigdog (28 September 2020)

ASX announcment "Updated FY21 Outlook" has been uploaded below

ATM A2 Milk New Zealand share price is currently down 11%







A2M announced today it has started to observe emerging disruption to the corporate daigou/reseller channel, particularly during the Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria.

As a result of this and previously highlighted issues relating to pantry destocking following panic buying during the height of the pandemic, management advised that it is witnessing a contraction in the daigou channel beyond its previous expectations. It is also not seeing the replenishment orders that would typically be anticipated at this point.

Unfortunately, this weakness is expected to persist during the remainder of the first half.

Management commented: “This disruption in the daigou channel is impacting our September sales and it is currently anticipated that this will continue for the remainder of the first half of FY21. Sales in the daigou channel represent a significant proportion of infant formula sales in our Australia & New Zealand (ANZ) business and, as such, we now expect ANZ revenue to be materially below plan for the first half.”


----------



## peter2 (28 September 2020)

Not surprising considering there's no international travel. Daigou supply channel has been cut off by COVID border closures. 

Daigou suppliers must develop online supply chain but this is more easily monitored by customs and the ATO.


----------



## Trav. (18 December 2020)

A2M taking a beating today. Down +20% due to revise guidance.


----------



## barney (18 December 2020)

Trav. said:


> A2M taking a beating today. Down +20% due to revise guidance.




Hey Trav ....I hope you don't still hold this  

A2M is not a Stock I would look at most of the time, but I quickly ran a visual time line through their Announcements relative to their Share Price.

I don't know who management are or their history, but I would be inclined not to trust their motives 100% of the time! 

Why?

They were still spruiking the brilliance of the Company results in a FY20 results presentation on 19th August, then the same rehash of brilliance on 9th September in an Investor Presentation no less 

Then they admit things are tough on 28th September but tell everyone that group revenue is still expected to rise on all fronts and EBITDA for 2021 will be about 31%

As late as the AGM 2020 Presentation on 18th November they are still trying to brush over the problems with the same old rehash of results etc etc.

*MEANWHILE*, the SP has been continually eroded/decimated while everything is going not so bad!

Todays updated Y21 guidance  sees the SP smashed yet again ...... yet the Company guidance still looks "reasonable"

*FY21 guidance as follows: 
• Group revenue for FY21 of $1.40 billion to $1.55 billion 
• Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of between 26 per cent and 29 per cent. *

I might be sounding a bit cynical, but I hate seeing regular punters having the wool pulled over their eyes while those in the know/deep pockets are cleaning up/dodging bullets at average Joe's expense.

Anyway, given how the Stock market operates,  A2M is a Buy today ... a Sell on Monday's Open, then a Buy/Hold at $8.95  (January sometime?) after all the shenanigan's are finished ... The circus can then re-start

No wonder I like Specs, Lol.


----------



## Trav. (18 December 2020)

barney said:


> Hey Trav ....I hope you don't still hold this



No mate, not holding, but I did jump in for a quick trade today. Made some beer money for the weekend 🍻

I think that you are right about this, but will just watch the show.



barney said:


> Buy/Hold at $8.95 (January sometime?) after all the shenanigan's are finished


----------



## barney (18 December 2020)

Trav. said:


> No mate, not holding, but I did jump in for a quick trade today. Made some beer money for the weekend 🍻 I think that you are right about this, but will just watch the show.




Good stuff ...  Glad you earned a few bob and didn't get stung with that drop  ... bit scary when they do that.

No doubt A2M will be back probably bigger and better down the track but it seemed management were wrapping the real truth in cotton wool when they surely knew things were no where near as good in the short term.

All good M8 ... enjoy those couple of beers!  (That' me not you, lol)


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 December 2020)

barney said:


> No doubt A2M will be back probably bigger and better down the track but it seemed management were wrapping the real truth in cotton wool when they surely knew things were no where near as good in the short term.



I see that Synlait (ASX = SM1) have placed their own company's shares into a trading halt whilst SM1 management assesses the situation regarding A2M.

A2M is stated as being a "strategic customer" of Synlait hence the link between the two.

I interpret that to mean management of SM1 considers that the issues with A2M at least possibly extend deeper. Just an assumption in my part there but the A2M share price of itself shouldn't be that much of an issue, SM1 would presumably be more worried about there being an ongoing business.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02323714-225MC0MRB80N90C5AVO1MHG64U/pdf?access_token=Ky0Qw0eCsvZAyWViTbtRPGFUwJad


----------



## galumay (18 December 2020)

It took a long time to play out, but it was always coming. When a commodity trader gets hyped due to clever marketing & a healthy dose of BS  its usually a fairly short lifecycle. This one lasted longer in the bubble market. Well done to the momentum traders that made a motzer while it was on!


----------



## Miner (21 December 2020)

Trav. said:


> No mate, not holding, but I did jump in for a quick trade today. Made some beer money for the weekend 🍻
> 
> I think that you are right about this, but will just watch the show.



Not long ago A2M fell through in August. Check out @bigdog 's posting. DNH


----------



## Miner (21 December 2020)

galumay said:


> It took a long time to play out, but it was always coming. When a commodity trader gets hyped due to clever marketing & a healthy dose of BS  its usually a fairly short lifecycle. This one lasted longer in the bubble market. Well done to the momentum traders that made a motzer while it was on!



good one. I bought at $2 around and sold out around $3.50 or so thinking that was too much . Now like APT and KGN, A2 M gone up and up.
Strangely SM1 did not collapse after opening from trading halt.


----------



## peter2 (27 January 2021)

Today's (27/1/21) above average volume bullish bar is interesting. Especially as it occurred on a market down day. If I was a short term trader I'd be tempted to have a go at *A2M*. Tomorrow's price action will confirm today's bullish demand or cancel it.





	

		
			
		

		
	
   Due to report Feb 25. Plenty of time for a "quickie".

Edit: Also interesting, noticed that *SM1, BGA* and *BUB* opened higher today (hmm dairy).


----------



## Miner (27 January 2021)

peter2 said:


> Today's (27/1/21) above average volume bullish bar is interesting. Especially as it occurred on a market down day. If I was a short term trader I'd be tempted to have a go at *A2M*. Tomorrow's price action will confirm today's bullish demand or cancel it.
> 
> View attachment 119135
> 
> ...



After reading your post I visited announcements. 
Found SM1 increased  milk price. 
Long shot, if there could be some change in milk pricing?
As such A2M 2 litre milk cost $5.6 against Browne's @$2.65. 
But there are other low shelf milk @$5 / 1.5 litres too.


----------



## Miner (28 January 2021)

peter2 said:


> Today's (27/1/21) above average volume bullish bar is interesting. Especially as it occurred on a market down day. If I was a short term trader I'd be tempted to have a go at *A2M*. Tomorrow's price action will confirm today's bullish demand or cancel it.
> 
> View attachment 119135
> 
> ...



A2 projection is interesting but not encouraging to put money there. Please expand the embeded image and see what they have projected for near future. giving opportunity to invest ?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 February 2021)

> _While our performance in the competitive “11/11″ online sales event showed year-on-year growth with higher promotional activity, sales in the period following that event were below expectations with subdued pricing,_” the company said. Also _"unprecedented levels of uncertainty and volatility_” continuing due to COVID-19.



and down.  Third *gap down




*


----------



## galumay (25 February 2021)

It was always going to be a problem for an undifferentiated commodity trader. I know I have banged on about this in the past, and I think I swore off commenting in the thread, but I can't help myself. 

Hopefully those who were invested have banked their profits.


----------



## peter2 (25 February 2021)

Whatever problems A2M has, haven't got better. The third gap down is a huge red flag for me and A2M is in the "never to be traded" category. The recent reversal setup didn't trigger and today's gap down puts it in the same group as AGL. 

It must really annoy mgt that they've got a huge market in China but can't get their product to them. When will mgt realise that their inability to get their product into China is the real problem not Covid.


----------



## Miner (25 February 2021)

peter2 said:


> Whatever problems A2M has, haven't got better. The third gap down is a huge red flag for me and A2M is in the "never to be traded" category. The recent reversal setup didn't trigger and today's gap down puts it in the same group as AGL.
> 
> It must really annoy mgt that they've got a huge market in China but can't get their product to them. When will mgt realise that their inability to get their product into China is the real problem not Covid.



How SM1 will be reflected with the poor performance of A2M will be shown in a week's time


----------



## loverat (25 February 2021)

Hi guys

I am a total newb. My husband came home with a "hot tip" from some guy at work saying that now is a good time to buy some A2M stocks. Neither of us have ever bought stock so I thought this would be a good place to check/learn. 

Just by reading the recent comments it's looks to me this "hot tip" guy might be more about hopium than anything else. My view is just because he does trade doesn't mean he is on the right track. Can someone please expand on why they can't get their product into China because this guy is spouting the "it's all because of Covid line". 

Also, would anyone have a recommendation for a decent starter broker? I will research but I don't know where to even start as somewhere where newbs can go and not get shafted - it's a jungle out there! He said the guy recommended the Comm bank one - but I hear Comm Bank and immediately think really? those buggers?

Thanks - appreciate any advice if you have the time.


----------



## galumay (25 February 2021)

loverat said:


> Thanks - appreciate any advice if you have the time.



Welcome to ASF, now to the hard part! Buying your first shares based on a hot tip from Hubbie's mate at work is about as clever as betting on red at the casino. 

No doubt you will get a wide range of views from members here, my view for what its worth is that you probably shouldn't be an active investor in equities. If you have some extra cash pay down any debt and then anything left put extra into your super.


----------



## frugal.rock (25 February 2021)

@loverat
You may be interested in reading up on related stocks, such as; 
SM1 (Sylait Milk)
BUB (Bubs)

Posted this in Bubs thread recently.


frugal.rock said:


> So, frustratingly I dumped a while ago when price drifted down again. Took a small loss.
> 
> Keen to learn why milk, (or in this case, baby formula) stocks are  headed downhill, I did some research and found that 2020 resulted in being the lowest birthing year for a long time in China.
> I imagine it may be similar elsewhere and I surmise this will probably continue into 2021 somewhat, given baking periods of 9 months.
> ...




As for a broker, I can recommend Selfwealth (as a reputable business) as I use them myself for $9.50 fee per trade of ANY value, and the shares are owned by you, not the broker.

We don't provide advice here on ASF, but for what it's worth, I have considered starting a thread recently based on the milk stocks being at price lows.

Maybe others can post  their opinions on where we are at regarding the "sitch" overall on milk stocks.

A2M has been a bit of a market darling recently historically.

Good luck in whatever you decide to do, and remember, none of this is advice.

Cheers.


----------



## joeno (25 February 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> @loverat
> You may be interested in reading up on related stocks, such as;
> SM1 (Sylait Milk)
> BUB (Bubs)
> ...




Synlait looks more attractive than A2 milk from an investment PoV.


----------



## peter2 (2 March 2021)

Very interesting day today for A2M. Strong demand.


----------



## Knobby22 (5 March 2021)

peter2 said:


> Very interesting day today for A2M. Strong demand.



Starting to get interested again, been 2 years.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 April 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> Starting to get interested again, been 2 years.



or not


----------



## Miner (27 April 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> or not
> 
> View attachment 123431



Mate @Dona Ferentes 
Could you please elaborate the 'interesting' word ? A2 has been going to uninterrupted south and not long ago, almost every expert treated A2 to be a future.
It is going to the level I started in the past and sold after it reached $4. But that was a different time.
Thanks in advance


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 April 2021)

Miner said:


> Mate @Dona Ferentes
> Could you please elaborate the 'interesting' word ? A2 has been going to uninterrupted south and not long ago, almost every expert treated A2 to be a future.
> It is going to the level I started in the past and sold after it reached $4. But that was a different time.
> Thanks in advance



wasn't me, your Honour. It was @Knobby what said _"interesting".  _


----------



## peter2 (27 April 2021)

In my defence your honour, the word "interesting" is a purposely noncommittal adjective when applied to a trade opportunity. Just as "beauty is in the eye of the beholder", "one man's trash is another's treasure". 

The "three gaps down" observation posted by @Dona Ferentes many weeks ago is a strong canine indicator. Woof, *A2M* is a dog. 

I drew the support line at 7.70 and when price bounced off it, I thought it "interesting". I needed to see a higher low for a setup but price kept going down and down. Now that it's below the support line, I'll let this sleeping dog lie.


----------



## Miner (27 April 2021)

peter2 said:


> In my defence your honour, the word "interesting" is a purposely noncommittal adjective when applied to a trade opportunity. Just as "beauty is in the eye of the beholder", "one man's trash is another's treasure".
> 
> The "three gaps down" observation posted by @Dona Ferentes many weeks ago is a strong canine indicator. Woof, *A2M* is a dog.
> 
> ...



Thanks Pete @peter2  for quoting Wordsworth 😀.
All good and rich context - letting sleeping dog die without letting RSPCA knows about it. 
On a serious note, thanks a lot for delivering the message on A2 as a hot potato.


----------



## bsnews (28 April 2021)

Miner said:


> Thanks Pete @peter2  for quoting Wordsworth 😀.
> All good and rich context - letting sleeping dog die without letting RSPCA knows about it.
> On a serious note, thanks a lot for delivering the message on A2 as a hot potato.



I would want a positive financial update from the company before I would look at this business.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 May 2021)

bsnews said:


> I would want a positive financial update from the company before I would look at this business.



on the strength of today's Ann, this wasn't it!! Sold down to under $6 for a while

_The trading dynamics in the China infant nutrition market have been and continue to be challenging for a2MC and many international competitors _
_• While a2MC’s 3Q21 trading was broadly in line with plan, it is clear that the actions taken to address challenges in the daigou/reseller and CBEC channels will not result in sufficient improvement on 3Q21 in pricing, sales and inventory levels to meet our previous guidance based on April sales being well below plan 
• The Board tasked management to undertake a comprehensive review of inventory in the trade and this work has indicated that the level of channel inventory is higher than had been anticipated 
• As a result of the inventory review, it is clear that the challenges in the daigou/reseller and CBEC channels have been exacerbated by excess inventory and difficulties with visibility 
• In the interest of the long-term health of the a2 brand and the medium-term trading outlook of the business, more aggressive actions to address excess inventory will be taken which will impact FY21 revenue and EBITDA, and potentially 1Q22_


• *FY21 revenue *
The Company is now targeting revenue for FY21 in the order of $1.20 billion to $1.25 billion.
The significant decline from the outlook provided in February reflects the impact of the lower than expected sales in 4Q21 versus prior plan and the further actions being taken to rebalance the channels by actively reducing sales in May/June.
It will take some time to rebalance inventory levels and restore channel health.  An immediate recovery is not expected and a further update for FY22 will be provided at the Company’s results in August. 

*FY21 EBITDA *
The Company is expecting an earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to sales margin for FY21 in the order of 11% to 12% (excluding MVM transaction costs).
The significantly lower EBITDA margin outlook from that provided in February reflects:
- The lower than expected sales in 4Q21 versus prior plan and the further actions being taken to rebalance the channels by actively reducing sales in May/June 
- A stock provision of approximately $80 million to $90 million which is in addition to the $23 million stock provision recognised in 1H21.  This includes costs to dispose of excess inventory in a controlled and sustainable manner
- One-off costs of approximately $8 million associated with the implementation of the Company’s new cloud-based enterprise resource planning system


----------



## galumay (10 May 2021)

galumay said:


> Miner, I think Bell Potter are ridiculously bullish for a cyclical agricultural commodity business like A2M, despite its stonk status, one day value and price will coincide and a lot of capital will go up in smoke IMO. Hopefully I am wrong for the sake of current speculators.




My thoughts nearly 2 years ago, I was probably wrong to describe them as a cyclical agricultural commodity business, more like a cyclical agricultural commodity reseller, whose entire value proposition was based on being able to create a brand for same. For sure they have suffered as a result from Covid, but an overly promotional management combined with a low margin undifferentiated domestic food product  didn't look to me like the stonk that speculators saw. 

Hopefully those that had done well, saw the warning signs and booked some of their profits before it the relentless decline.


----------



## peter2 (10 May 2021)

Make that four gaps down now. Gap downs are like cockroaches, when you see one, there are others around.


----------



## Miner (11 May 2021)

A2M- once a darling for market now gasping for support


----------



## peter2 (30 May 2021)

Definition of an optimist.  Thinking that this daily reversal pattern (123 Low) is the start of a trend reversal in *A2M*.


----------



## debtfree (30 May 2021)

peter2 said:


> Definition of an optimist.  Thinking that this daily reversal pattern (123 Low) is the start of a trend reversal in *A2M*.




What makes you think it will be different this time? Is it the increasing volume? Do you think this is an indication of institutional buying now, starting to accumulate?


----------



## peter2 (30 May 2021)

Sorry, I should have included a "tongue in cheek" emoji.
A few days where the price hasn't gone down is insignificant to the prior price fall of 11 months. It's going to take a LOT more than a few days to stop this freight train and then reverse it.


----------



## over9k (31 May 2021)

Anyone got a tl:dr on this thing? Is it going to zero?


----------



## galumay (31 May 2021)

This mornings announcement wont help then, peter2 !


----------



## peter2 (2 June 2021)

Possible class action. Unfortunately or luckily for some, incompetence is not a criminal offence. 

I notice a few people are getting excited over the news that China is allowing families to have a third child. This means the potential market for baby formula and infant products will get bigger. However the big problem for Aussie companies is getting their products into China. *A2M* and others relied on the diagou trade which was cutoff when the international borders were clamped shut. 

It's not worth buying into these companies until they solve the problem of getting their products into China in significant volume.


----------



## bsnews (2 June 2021)

peter2 said:


> Possible class action. Unfortunately or luckily for some, incompetence is not a criminal offence.
> 
> I notice a few people are getting excited over the news that China is allowing families to have a third child. This means the potential market for baby formula and infant products will get bigger. However the big problem for Aussie companies is getting their products into China. *A2M* and others relied on the diagou trade which was cutoff when the international borders were clamped shut.
> 
> It's not worth buying into these companies until they solve the problem of getting their products into China in significant volume.



The announcement of being allowed to have 2 children had no impact at all so allowing a third will also I foresee have no impact.
As they look to have a family that they can support with higher education being very important.
China do not look to be easing off the restrictions on Australia any time soon or for the foreseeable future.


----------



## over9k (2 June 2021)

bsnews said:


> The announcement of being allowed to have 2 children had no impact at all so allowing a third will also I foresee have no impact.
> As they look to have a family that they can support with higher education being very important.
> China do not look to be easing off the restrictions on Australia any time soon or for the foreseeable future.



Don't be so sure of that. Their economic hand might soon be forced.

They had to run rolling blackouts because of the coal import ban. As you can imagine, such actions tend to upset the general public, which just gives them massive internal pressure as well. People tend to get together & go on long walks when they can't put food on the table.

As the saying goes, society is only ever one missed meal away from a revolution.


----------



## Miner (4 June 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> @loverat
> You may be interested in reading up on related stocks, such as;
> SM1 (Sylait Milk)
> BUB (Bubs)
> ...



I tried to enrol with Selfwealth but got nervous when they asked to provide them a POA (power of attorney). It was weird Commsec has never asked for it. Why Selfwealth asks? They said not to worry but it is playing a blind for me.
What is your experience in dealing with the POA to Self wealth. Should I be panicked or cautious?


----------



## frugal.rock (4 June 2021)

Miner said:


> What is your experience in dealing with the POA to Self wealth. Should I be panicked or cautious?



I wasn't concerned.
I believe the term may be "qualified" POA meaning they can only act on some matters pertaining specifically to your shares, as required by law.
It doesn't give them a blanket POA. If they did anything against your best interests, it would be against the POA. 
They are only allowed to act for your benefit.
You would have signed something similar for Bomsecc, just it probably wasn't labelled as a POA but authorisation to blah blah.
Nothingvto worry about Miner.
Cheers


----------



## galumay (4 June 2021)

I looked at self wealth a while ago, I didn't like how it was structured and some of the forms they wanted completed, the POA being one of them. Commsec is much more straightforward, probably because the structure is a lot simpler.


----------



## Austwide (7 July 2021)

A2M maybe has bottomed and is crawling back up, no idea why


----------



## qldfrog (7 July 2021)

Austwide said:


> A2M maybe has bottomed and is crawling back up, no idea why



One strategy i heard of: get the dogs of last yearwhich are still financially sound.
Better than main indexes expected returns using that...
A2M was a dog last year, wasn't it, so maybe some are getting back for that reason?
Tempting..even if the CCP is still in control so China market a bit so so..


----------



## BossMan. (5 August 2021)

Hey,

I'm new here so apologies if I am posting in the wrong area. Just wondering what you guys  are thinking about A2M and its long term viability? I personally think it looks alright as a long term selection however am curious to know what the opinions you guys have?

Apologies if this is formatted or structured wrong as this is my first time on the forum, or if im in the wrong section.


----------



## galumay (5 August 2021)

Welcome BossMan, probably better to post this in the specific A2M thread, maybe @Joe Blow can move it for you? 

When its moved, maybe share some of your analysis and research that leads you to think A2M might be a good investment at current prices?


----------



## BossMan. (5 August 2021)

BossMan. said:


> Hey,
> 
> I'm new here so apologies if I am posting in the wrong area. Just wondering what you guys  are thinking about A2M and its long term viability? I personally think it looks alright as a long term selection however am curious to know what the opinions you guys have?
> 
> Apologies if this is formatted or structured wrong as this is my first time on the forum, or if im in the wrong section.




My primary reasoning is the change to the child policy in recent months in China and with the hope that once Australia exits its phase of hard lockdowns the daigou channel will be able to further open up allowing further sales to the Asia/China region to reach there prior levels. Those are the primary reasons I have been looking at the A2M company specifically in relation to its baby formula product. I haven't read much of whats above so apologies if people have already covered this.


----------



## aus_trader (5 August 2021)

BossMan. said:


> My primary reasoning is the change to the child policy in recent months in China and with the hope that once Australia exits its phase of hard lockdowns the daigou channel will be able to further open up allowing further sales to the Asia/China region to reach there prior levels. Those are the primary reasons I have been looking at the A2M company specifically in relation to its baby formula product. I haven't read much of whats above so apologies if people have already covered this.



There could be some further headwinds according to the company forecast, but the share price has fallen a lot to reflect the current reduction in revenue/profit and this uncertainty, just my 2c. So I guess a lot of the downside is probably baked into the current share price.


----------



## BossMan. (5 August 2021)

aus_trader said:


> There could be some further headwinds according to the company forecast, but the share price has fallen a lot to reflect the current reduction in revenue/profit and this uncertainty, just my 2c. So I guess a lot of the downside is probably baked into the current share price.
> 
> View attachment 128592



Yeah, I am interested in there change of strategy the 26th when the annual results will be interesting to see if they hit their adjusted targets or not. Also there advance in to the USA / Canadian market and what the general acceptance of the company has been like in the region. Definitely will be a company I keep a close eye on over the next couple of weeks. Seems to be holding fairly strong at the $6-7 range but only time will tell and the announcements coming this week.


----------



## galumay (5 August 2021)

I realise my processes and strategies are very different to most other investors, but just to add something to consider, one of the reasons I wouldn't invest in A2M is that a question I always ask myself is "Why will this business still be round in 10 years" (or to invert, what could cause this business to cease to exist in the next 10 years.).

A company selling a brand of undifferentiated commodity, like A2 milk, has at least a significant probability of not being around in 10 years.


----------



## aus_trader (6 August 2021)

I think the world has realised it's not pouring Gold or putting Gold powder in the infant formula, so the price has come back to earth from sky high valuations. But I wonder if there is actually a good business in there once you strip the excitement and growth stock valuation out of the share price. The A2 protein has made it possible for quite a few people to be able to consume milk/milk products again.

But may be worth keeping an eye on as @BossMan. said as the company is trying to adopt to the change in trading conditions and perhaps there is some growth that's yet to be had in the US/Canadian markets and possibly a revival in China.


----------



## BossMan. (16 August 2021)

Strong signs with A2M, if Nestle acquire them following the announcements on the 26th, the effect on the stock price is already seen and it doesn't seem to be slowing down will definitely be interesting to watch.


----------



## Knobby22 (16 August 2021)

BossMan. said:


> Strong signs with A2M, if Nestle acquire them following the announcements on the 26th, the effect on the stock price is already seen and it doesn't seem to be slowing down will definitely be interesting to watch.



They do seem a little cheap at present if things are going back to normal.
The Daegu still exist and volumes have started rising again, profits will too. Covid is reaching endgame and it is essentially a NZ company, not Australian so less on the China radar. I think they will rise a bit from here but not up to the ridiculous heights the shares previously got to. This year eps will be 12.5c a share, the forecast for the coming year is 25c a share, they used to be 40c a share. For me maybe $7.50 is the future. 
Not really tempted.


----------



## BossMan. (20 August 2021)

If they win there second attempt at the lawsuit with nestle in relation to there baby formula product, A2M could have a majority of the baby formula market within China? 

Which could possibly put Nestle in a position where they would have to acquire A2M to trade there current baby formulas internationally of course this is only if A2M wins. I could of also miss read the lawsuit.


----------



## BossMan. (25 August 2021)

Annual Report tomorrow 🎆🎆


----------



## Miner (3 January 2022)

A2M - my pick for CY 2022.
I think in the next 12 months, the bad days of A2M will be over. 
this is the dark patch on A2M - https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4. It is either head or tells a story. Should the court decides in favor of A2M then the market will be riding high.
This is also not an encouraging lead from Goldman 


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02463156-2A1344155?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02464027-2A1344578?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

But that is what tipping should do - the unbelievable result
 Having said that, the AI prediction is absolutely unbelievable shocking. But I lose nothing on paper loss so purely from a gambling perspective, putting my money on A2 M on the tipping game


----------



## Miner (20 February 2022)

A2M is still in deep wood??


----------



## bigdog (21 February 2022)

A2M share action in New Zealand this morning at about  10:30 AM







ASX ANNOUNCEMENTS TODAY






A2 Milk share price on watch after posting big earnings decline​

Revenue down 2.5% over the prior corresponding period to NZ$661 million
EBITDA down 45.3% to NZ$98 million
Net profit after tax down 53.3% to NZ$56 million
Net cash of NZ$667 million

What happened during the first half?​
For the six months ended 31 December, A2 Milk reported a 2.5% decline in revenue to NZ$661 million. This was driven by a 10.5% reduction in infant nutrition revenue to NZ$471 million, a 0.2% lift in Liquid milk revenue to NZ$125 million, and a 143.3% jump in other revenue to NZ$65 million. Other revenue includes revenue from its Mataura Valley Milk (MVM) business, which was acquired at the end of FY 2021. MVM revenue was down 8.2% year on year.

Management advised that its first half revenue was impacted by a number of factors, including the lower birth rate and rapidly changing market dynamics in China.


As was widely expected, A2 Milk’s margins were crunched during the period. Management advised that this reflects gross margin pressures, such as adverse product mix and cost headwinds, together with higher marketing investments. The latter ultimately led to the company’s EBITDA margin falling to a lowly 14.8%.


As a result, the company posted a 53.3% decline in net profit after tax to NZ$56.1 million. This has fallen short of the market consensus estimate of NZ$60 million, which may not bode well for the A2 Milk share price today.


Management commentary​
Despite this poor result, A2 Milk Company’s Managing Director and CEO, David Bortolussi, believes the company is making progress:


He said: “Despite challenging market conditions in China and COVID-19 volatility, we are making good progress stabilising the business. The growth strategy we announced in October last year to respond to a rapidly changing China market has been completed and implementation is underway with good early progress across a range of initiatives.”


“We remain confident in the long-term China infant milk formula market, and we are growing share in our China label business in-store and online with strong consumer offtake and share growth. The actions we took to address excess infant milk formula inventory last year are proving effective, and we are seeing improvements in English label channel inventory levels, market pricing and product freshness.”


While English label sales were down during the half, we have seen an improvement in trajectory in the ANZ reseller / daigou channel. Our brand health is strong, and we will continue to increase brand investment, content generation, and activation to drive awareness and conversion,” Bortolussi concluded.


Outlook​
Due to the uncertainty the company is facing, it is not providing any guidance for FY 2022. However, it has provided observations on key drivers and important issues that may impact its results.


And while management believes that its revenue could be stronger in the second half, this won’t necessarily translate into stronger earnings.


It explained: “The Company’s outlook for 2H22 revenue has improved. It is still expected to be significantly higher than 2H21, and with growth now expected on 1H22 and for FY22, ahead of initial expectations due mainly to growth in China label and English label IMF. However, this revenue improvement is not expected to translate into higher earnings as the Company significantly increases brand and other reinvestment consistent with its growth strategy.”


FY 2022’s marketing investment is now expected to be in the order of NZ$220 million, which is higher than FY 2020 peak levels. This is being done to drive the execution of its growth strategy.


----------



## Knobby22 (21 February 2022)

bigdog said:


> A2M share action in New Zealand this morning at about  10:30 AM
> 
> 
> View attachment 137867
> ...



So is it becoming a buy? The company appears ripe for takeover by a Chinese company.


----------



## bigdog (21 February 2022)

A2 Milk up 10.94% at 12:50 PM with high of $5.92


----------



## BossMan. (21 February 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> So is it becoming a buy? The company appears ripe for takeover by a Chinese company.



I agree ripe for a takeover, but I dont think NZ would let there biggest agricultural company go in to the hands of foreign ownership.

Nestle could swoop in though, thats for sure a possibility


----------



## bigdog (21 February 2022)

What about takeover by Saputo?

Established in 1888. Canadian dairy giant Saputo acquired an 88% stake in Jan 2014, and the remaining shares in Mar 2017

*Saputo *has been operating in Australia since 2014, carrying on the rich heritage and expertise we welcomed through our acquisitions. We are now the country's largest dairy processor, offering a wide variety of products like cheeses, spreads, and nutritional ingredients. Starting with the dedication and care of our patron farmers, we produce some of Australia’s best known dairy brands, including Cracker Barrel*, Devondale, King Island Dairy, Liddells, South Cape and Sungold.


----------



## greggles (28 April 2022)

Back to $4.37 today. The breakdown through support at $5 was not good and now that level will act as resistance. Hard to believe the share price has fallen more than $15 in less than two years.

It will have to bottom out eventually, but it is difficult to predict how low it could potentially go.


----------



## JohnDe (19 May 2022)

Opportunity or disaster?




> *A baby-formula shortage feeds criticism of corporate heft and price gouging*
> _The former is a valid concern. The latter is a misleading distraction_
> 
> Throughout the pandemic shoppers have learned again and again about the fragility of supply chains. In America the latest product missing from supermarket shelves is infant formula. Whereas previous shortages, affecting everything from cars to couches, presented an inconvenience to consumers, a lack of nourishment for babies creates serious health risks. So the Biden administration has swung into action. On May 16th the Food and Drug Administration (fda) announced that America would loosen restrictions on imports of formula from other countries and take steps to increase domestic production.
> ...






> *Third class action launched against A2 Milk after share price crash*
> 
> Trans-Tasman dairy company A2 Milk says it will “vigorously defend” an investor class action that alleges it gave misleading guidance ahead of a spectacular share price crash.
> 
> ...







​


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 August 2022)

suddenly, the negativity goes away !?

A2M posted strong full-year, double-digit sales and earnings growth, met its market guidance, and plans to return $NZ150 million ($133.6 million) to shareholders in a share buyback.

up 10%. .... to $5.40


_Inventory management actions taken last calendar year to address excess infant milk formula (IMF) inventory have proven effective with channel inventory at target levels, product freshness amongst the best in the industry and improved market pricing_
_Refreshed growth strategy communicated to the market in October 2021 which focused on capturing the full potential of the China market opportunity is having an impact achieving new highs in brand health metrics and record market shares _
_Full year result for FY22 is in line with the Company’s expectations as outlined on 21 February 2022, delivering double digit revenue and earnings growth despite challenging market conditions driven by the refreshed growth strategy and improved execution _
_Outlook for the business in FY23 is positive with continued revenue and earnings growth expected, and the Company is on track to deliver on its medium-term financial and non-financial ambitions communicated to the market at its Investor Day in October 2021 ._


----------



## BossMan. (29 August 2022)

Remarkable turn around this new CEO has done a fantastic job. Big fan of him.

Bit of a noobish question but how much will a 133.6 million dollar buy back actually have on the share price in your opinion?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 August 2022)

BossMan. said:


> Bit of a noobish question but how much will a 133.6 million dollar buy back actually have on the share price in your opinion?



Market cap is $3.6B so divide the buyback by that to get the "yield".


----------



## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

Yeah, but. 
Highly variable market and time wise.

"The buyback programme is expected to commence towards the end of September 2022 and may run for up to 12  months. 
The Company may acquire shares through the NZX and ASX at the prevailing market price from time to  
time in that period."



BossMan. said:


> Bit of a noobish question but how much will a 133.6 million dollar buy back actually have on the share price in your opinion?



Not alot unless it's done at savvy occasions. 
General up draught.
To me, the wording is  "positive".

The SP rise "how much" in reality can't be quantified, only the representative "yield" as per io'boy post.


----------



## BossMan. (30 August 2022)

I think a dividend payout would of been appreciated, I’m not super familiar with the laws and regulations behind buy backs but they could use it conveniently to try and hold a the sp above a certain level? I.e hold it above $5 a share. I’m not fully familiar with how they work, is that a possibility?


frugal.rock said:


> Yeah, but.
> Highly variable market and time wise.
> 
> "The buyback programme is expected to commence towards the end of September 2022 and may run for up to 12  months.
> ...


----------



## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

Sure, it's possible. Wouldn't rely on it though.
If they stage their buys when the price is depressed, they get it cheaper and might bring the price up a bit.
Catch the weak hands.

I wouldn't think they would be planning price manipulation though.


----------



## Maelinar (30 August 2022)

A2M has never paid a dividend - its highly unlikely they are about to start.

The stock was already on the way down, but IMHO the loss of the daigou channel was seen as a catalyst for the stock to fall from grace significantly. This was exacerbated by their decision to write off a heap of their formula stocks to ensure its freshness and suitability, which reinforces their brand image but was a big pill to swallow and investors didn't like it. This trend has continued until their latest data was released.

I picked up on Motley Fool today that Bell Potter upgraded the price target to 6.35 - this is a decent guide. I think it'll nudge a little higher than that, I'm thinking around 10 is a sensible 3-5 year outlook.


----------



## aus_trader (6 October 2022)

Share price recovering over the last couple of months, so put on a A2M trade. Details in the speculative stock portfolio: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/post-1195289


----------



## bigdog (3 November 2022)

NZX Code: ATM
ASX Code: A2M

3 November 2022
NZX/ASX Market Release
FDA approval to supply infant milk formula to the United States

The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) advises that the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has notified the Company that it has exercised its discretion to allow a2MC to import infant milk formula (IMF) products into the US.

Following the onset of IMF supply disruption in the US, FDA Guidance was released on 16 May 2022 in relation to case-by-case consideration of enforcement discretion to be applied to companies with the goal of increasing IMF supplies. a2MC applied to the FDA on 26 May 2022 under its enforcement discretion to supply IMF to the US. As
announced by the Company on 10 August 2022, the FDA had deferred further consideration of a2MC’s application for enforcement discretion. However, the Company has continued to engage with the FDA to meet its requirements and to reconsider a2MC’s application.

Pleasingly the Company has today received confirmation from the FDA that its application for enforcement discretion to import, sell and distribute a2 Platinum® IMF product (Stages 1 and 2) from New Zealand into the US has been approved through to 6 January 2023. The Company is also able to supply Stage 3 toddler product in addition to this which does not require enforcement discretion.

New Zealand share price up 7.3% at  10:30 AM NZ time this morning


----------



## Miner (3 November 2022)

bigdog said:


> View attachment 148768
> 
> 
> NZX Code: ATM
> ...



Thanks @bigdog  for sharing the FDA approval news.
Market received with 7.2 % rise already.
 I also read the details about increased airfreight , packaging and lower gross margin .
Is it really a gain?
US$ is  going up.
General air fares from Australia to overseas have rocketed sky high.
I just paid three times airfare fare to Delhi than it was last year.
Just Google for LA from Sydney as well.
I am not a holder but a by stander.


----------



## BossMan. (3 January 2023)

Birth rate is increasing in Australia, more births, more formula, I also believe that Australia china trade relations are improving in the short term, hopefully we will see a further opening of the Daigou, I think it is also important to remember Nestle and others have looked at acquiring A2M in the past, no reason speculation couldn't start again in the next 12 months. A bit of a punt on this one.


----------



## Miner (3 January 2023)

BossMan. said:


> Birth rate is increasing in Australia, more births, more formula, I also believe that Australia china trade relations are improving in the short term, hopefully we will see a further opening of the Daigou, I think it is also important to remember Nestle and others have looked at acquiring A2M in the past, no reason speculation couldn't start again in the next 12 months. A bit of a punt on this one.



Opportunity to export to India- largest population


----------

