# VAH - Virgin Australia Holdings



## System (8 December 2011)

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (VAH) was formerly known as Virgin Blue Holdings Limited (VBA).

Previous discussion of this company can be found in the VBA thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=266


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## frankie_boy (21 December 2011)

System said:


> Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (VAH) was formerly known as Virgin Blue Holdings Limited (VBA).
> 
> Previous discussion of this company can be found in the VBA thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=266




Hello VAH... 

what will you have in stall for us in the next 12 months.. 

I see bumpy times ahead..


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## frankie_boy (18 April 2012)

Nice gains for a while till recent news of pax ratios. Business class is picking up. Steady as she goes..


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## notting (17 May 2012)

Nice looking pair :blover:


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## CanOz (17 May 2012)

Pretty impressive considering the broader market....this is the weekly.

CanOz


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## skc (17 May 2012)

notting said:


> Nice looking pair :blover:
> 
> View attachment 47137




I have this pair open yesterday and today.

Long QAN @ $1.49. Short VAH @ 43c.

~10% divergence but will aim to take 6-7%. 

On the charts I can see VAH testing 38c again, with QAN hopefully holding around current levels for a week or so.


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## McLovin (30 October 2012)

10.5x EV for a company that derives 50% of it's revenue from mining services...


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2013)

I am looking at an entry in to VAH shortly.

Only because QAN are such losers.

I hesitate as one loose bolt can wipe much value from airline shares.

Any thoughts?

A chart.






gg


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## tasmanian (20 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am looking at an entry in to VAH shortly.
> 
> Only because QAN are such losers.
> 
> ...




I think theres alot better stocks to be buying than this atm.


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2013)

tasmanian said:


> I think theres alot better stocks to be buying than this atm.




And your reasons mate?

gg


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## systematic (20 January 2013)

tasmanian said:


> I think theres alot better stocks to be buying than this atm.




It wouldn't be my pick of the bunch either, but:

- I have it not too bad on value.

- Taking a breather momentum wise (but still positive) and needs to get on with it.  The good thing here is that it wouldn't take much to throw it out, which gives you a "lower risk" trade.


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## tasmanian (20 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> And your reasons mate?
> 
> gg




Hi mate,

I think virgin could rise but still quite abit of overhead resistance. Not the worst looking chart ive seen a slow mover most likely.

Take a look at a few of these stocks    dye, rms, akm, whc, nuf, mbn, aqp, aqa I just think they have more potential than virgin atm.

Not sure if your trading or going for a long term investment? Looks like long term virgin might be good especially if it breaks above 52c. 

A buy now with a tight stop at 41c could work and a target of 50/51c ? 

I dont know anything about the fundamentals you maybe know more about that.

Sorry im rambling but just think there is better buys around atm thats all. I think med to long term u could do well but just  better stocks around for me.

best of luck


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## willstor (10 February 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am looking at an entry in to VAH shortly.
> 
> Only because QAN are such losers.
> 
> ...




This one has flown into my airspace recently, if you'll allow the poor joke. 
Got my HVN and NCM funds however bar this stock I can't see much value in any equities right now as they're so overweight. 
Whilst it won't pay a dividend I'm interested in a small tranche close to 40c, with the hope that we see a rise to the late 40's before hopefully getting approval on the Tiger deal results in a nice bounce. The company appears to be well run, have a decent team on board and is part of a huge conglomerate who will throw the money at it to bring success.
Of course this week the market might lose 2% and I can pick up a cheap dividend paying stock.


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## ecnalb (10 February 2013)

I am thinking about getting in on this one as a long term investment. Couple of thousand should do it?

I think the plans John Borghetti has laid out will eventually start to reap some rewards, especially the tie up with Tiger Airways.


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## prawn_86 (10 February 2013)

ecnalb said:


> I am thinking about getting in on this one as a long term investment. Couple of thousand should do it?




Over the long term virtually every airline in the World loses money and/or goes broke.

They are an extremely capital intensive business, with high hard to control fixed costs (fuel, maintenance) and constant cost pressures. Why do you thinkVAH would be any different than all the others globally?

Personally i would never ever buy an airline for the long term.


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## McLovin (10 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Over the long term virtually every airline in the World loses money and/or goes broke.
> 
> They are an extremely capital intensive business, with high hard to control fixed costs (fuel, maintenance) and constant cost pressures. Why do you thinkVAH would be any different than all the others globally?
> 
> Personally i would never ever buy an airline for the long term.




Absolutely. In the last 10 years every major airline, with the exception of Southwest, in the US has been into Chapter 11 protection at some stage. VAH's golden years were the period between Ansett going broke and the arrival of Jetstar. Domesticaly, they do OK, especially on the main trunk routes (the East Coast capitals triangle) where volume is fairly predictable as is pricing. I actually have somewhere a p/l breakdown of a flight Sydney-Melbourne, I did it a couple of years ago but if my estimates were correct it's actually quite profitable assuming you get bums on seats.

They want to expand internationally but then it gets really competitive, fitting out planes with new entertainment systems and seats costs big money and it can be really hard to earn it back especially when the Asian carriers can operate with government subsidies and vastly decreased labour costs.


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## JTLP (10 February 2013)

McLovin said:


> Absolutely. In the last 10 years every major airline, with the exception of Southwest, in the US has been into Chapter 11 protection at some stage. VAH's golden years were the period between Ansett going broke and the arrival of Jetstar. Domesticaly, they do OK, especially on the main trunk routes (the East Coast capitals triangle) where volume is fairly predictable as is pricing. I actually have somewhere a p/l breakdown of a flight Sydney-Melbourne, I did it a couple of years ago but if my estimates were correct it's actually quite profitable assuming you get bums on seats.
> 
> They want to expand internationally but then it gets really competitive, fitting out planes with new entertainment systems and seats costs big money and it can be really hard to earn it back especially when the Asian carriers can operate with government subsidies and vastly decreased labour costs.




Prawn / McLoving 

Don't quote me on this but I remember seeing that Ryanair was one of the world's most profitable airlines (consistently???). Not saying it can maintain over the long haul - but been around for a while and seems to do ok with their ridiculous fares and crazy costs?!?!


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## McLovin (10 February 2013)

JTLP said:


> Prawn / McLoving
> 
> Don't quote me on this but I remember seeing that Ryanair was one of the world's most profitable airlines (consistently???). Not saying it can maintain over the long haul - but been around for a while and seems to do ok with their ridiculous fares and crazy costs?!?!




Ryanair is a funny one. A lot of the routes they fly are to out of the way places that happen to be near big cities. Near is a relative term in Ryan Air talk. Consider that when you fly to "Frankfurt" with Ryan Air you actually land at an airport 120km away with no rail and poor road connections. Why is that important? Because Ryan Air receives big cash incentives to fly to these out of the way airports by the local government. Infact the cash handouts are about the exact same amount as RA's profit. They do similar sort of things with smaller out of the way cities with airports. Local tourist boards etc can pay RA a fee to start flying there and bringing tourists in.


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## ecnalb (10 February 2013)

McLovin said:


> Absolutely. In the last 10 years every major airline, with the exception of Southwest, in the US has been into Chapter 11 protection at some stage. VAH's golden years were the period between Ansett going broke and the arrival of Jetstar. Domesticaly, they do OK, especially on the main trunk routes (the East Coast capitals triangle) where volume is fairly predictable as is pricing. I actually have somewhere a p/l breakdown of a flight Sydney-Melbourne, I did it a couple of years ago but if my estimates were correct it's actually quite profitable assuming you get bums on seats.
> 
> They want to expand internationally but then it gets really competitive, fitting out planes with new entertainment systems and seats costs big money and it can be really hard to earn it back especially when the Asian carriers can operate with government subsidies and vastly decreased labour costs.




Most of VA's international sectors are flown by the likes of SQ, EY and so on, so using their low cost base.

I think QF will be an interesting one come 2016. With forecasts of international to return to profit after the Asia/Middle East reroute and hopefully *fingers crossed* the 787 on the premises.


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## prawn_86 (10 February 2013)

ecnalb said:


> Most of VA's international sectors are flown by the likes of SQ, EY and so on.
> 
> I think QF will be an interesting one come 2016. With forecasts of international to return to profit after the Asia/Middle East reroute and hopefully *fingers crossed* the 787 on the premises.




Look at the ROE and avg shareholder return of VAH and QAN. It is absolutely terrible and no indication that will turn around anytime soon. It has been bad for 10 years and will be bad for the next 10 years


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## McLovin (10 February 2013)

ecnalb said:


> Most of VA's international sectors are flown by the likes of SQ, EY and so on, so using their low cost base.




VA flies to Au Dhabi on it's own metal. I guess time will tell how well taking people half way and then shifting them onto someone else's metal (that also serves Australia) works. I'm pretty skeptical about using codeshares. If you fly to the 5 mainland capitals then do you really need a domestic airline to provide feed?

Do you know what restrictions SQ has on where VA can fly or were they lifted with the name change?


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## ecnalb (10 February 2013)

McLovin said:


> VA flies to Au Dhabi on it's own metal. I guess time will tell how well taking people half way and then shifting them onto someone else's metal (that also serves Australia) works. I'm pretty skeptical about using codeshares. If you fly to the 5 mainland capitals then do you really need a domestic airline to provide feed?
> 
> Do you know what restrictions SQ has on where VA can fly or were they lifted with the name change?




They also do an AUH > KUL wet lease for Malaysian I think it is, while waiting for the return sector to SYD.

From my understanding SQ has no restrictions. SQ and EY could want the feed from VA's domestic network from mining and resource areas, and some of the premium traffic from that VA has taken from QF.


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## JTLP (10 February 2013)

McLovin said:


> Ryanair is a funny one. A lot of the routes they fly are to out of the way places that happen to be near big cities. Near is a relative term in Ryan Air talk. Consider that when you fly to "Frankfurt" with Ryan Air you actually land at an airport 120km away with no rail and poor road connections. Why is that important? Because Ryan Air receives big cash incentives to fly to these out of the way airports by the local government. Infact the cash handouts are about the exact same amount as RA's profit. They do similar sort of things with smaller out of the way cities with airports. Local tourist boards etc can pay RA a fee to start flying there and bringing tourists in.




Thought this was the case as I pondered how they ran a flight to Eindhoven - an hour out of Amsterdam! Pretty good business model overall (extra charges etc - how you essentially only pay for a 'seat' on the flight). Of course some hairy moments flying but overall 

Guess there isn't the capacity to do this sort of thing in AU?


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## McLovin (11 February 2013)

JTLP said:


> Guess there isn't the capacity to do this sort of thing in AU?




The entire Australian domestic aviation industry carries fewer passengers than Ryan Air. 

A pure play Australian domestic airline under the current duopoly structure would probably not be too bad an investment. Obviously with some very big caveats. Even Ansett would still be around if it wasn't run into the ground by News Corp when it was getting killed by Fox debt and then when Air NZ (a much smaller airline) took over it was already a weakened company and was trying to compete against a very strong Qantas.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 March 2016)

Big drop on the weekly.


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## notting (18 March 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Big drop on the weekly.




Big drop on the daily! Not quite the Qantas what did they do hedge oil at $100?


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## skc (18 March 2016)

notting said:


> Big drop on the daily! Not quite the Qantas what did they do hedge oil at $100?




Not sure what's going on but it probably has something to do with index trackers / rebalancers. It matched @ 35 on high volume after trading 38 all day. It is controlled by 3 major shareholders so it may no longer meet the investment / free float criteria for a range of institutions. 

I haven't seen anything suggesting anything wrong operationally.


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## notting (30 March 2016)

ASX should be investigating who ever that was selling on the close on the 18th.



> Virgin Australia has entered a trading halt ahead of an announcement by Air New Zealand about the future status of its shareholding in the Australian airline.
> 
> Virgin's largest shareholder said it's considering selling some or all of its stake in the airline, a stake currently valued at around $345 million.
> 
> Air NZ will assess other uses for the capital tied up in Virgin Australia, the Kiwi carrier said in a statement. Its chief executive Christopher Luxon resigned from Virgin Australia's board with immediate effect.


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## piggybank (9 May 2016)

Hi,

Does anyone know why the value of Virgin has halved since the beginning of the year?

Thanking those in advance of their reply

Cheers
PB


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## notting (10 June 2016)

Chinese take over by stealth - 

First


> HNA  will make an equity investment in the Virgin Australia Group .  The  investment will be made in the form  of a n A $159 million placement of shares at an issue price of A $0.30 per share , which represents a premium of  7.1 per cent to  the  last close on  30 May 2016 . Following the placement, HNA will have a shareholding of approximately 13 per cent in the Virgin




Then today I see the headline that Air New Zealand has found a buyer for its stake.  The first thought I have is, - *'it will be the Chinese.'*

Oh look another *Chinese company* of course they are are privately owned :headshake :vader: Like communists allow private airline companies amidst the dictatorship, it's as probable as allowing the people to bear arms!



> Air New Zealand (NZX: AIR) is pleased to advise  that it has entered into a Sale &  Purchase Agreement (the Agreement) with Nanshan Group in respect of its stake in Virgin  Australia . Under the Agreement,  Air New Zealand will sell shares held in Virgin Austra lia  at  A$0.33 per share . Following the sale , Nanshan Group will have a shareholding of approximately 19.98%  in Virgin Australia
> Nanshan Group is a large, privately :vader: owned Chinese communist company.


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## Scotty H (17 August 2016)

When is this poor stock going to get some traction?

What are the issues keeping it low. From a purely business perspective they seem to be doing the one thing they should - reducing debt. All other things indicate better times ahead. 

Views?


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## polpak (21 August 2016)

At moment patience is name of game for VAH. 

Larger % share holders appear settling in, focus perhaps their own returns growth through partnerships, Dividends appear taking longer term approach with SP recovery. 


Some gossip of buy-out then shifting private,  time will tell if this happening, then whether price we can smile over. 


Current sentiment is Hold LongTerm.


.


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 August 2017)

Chinese entities control VAH so it has some sovereign and tourism risk. 

I've a few kopecks on them. 

I might even fly them as the soup in the Qantas Lounge has gone off and in BNE QL every time I put a sugar in my cappuccino a tradies balls comes through a renovation wall. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 February 2019)

VAH showing some nice fundamentals at last. 

Multiple large shareholders. 

A premium buyout may be on the cards. 

gg


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## sptrawler (28 August 2019)

Interesting when you compare the news in February 2019

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/02/virgin-australia-reports-return-to-profitability/

Then their full year financial results in August 2019

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190828/pdf/447xydy6wbtvmx.pdf

Not the sort of business for the faint hearted. IMO


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## sptrawler (31 March 2020)

Virgin in a trading halt, asking Government for a $1.4 billion bailout. If the Government bails them out, IMO it will be only in the name of maintaining competition, it will be throwing good money after bad going on their past record.
On the other hand could you imagine the cost of flying, if was up to Joyce to set the prices.
Just my opinion.

*Virgin Australia* has entered a *trading halt*. *Trading* for the airline was temporarily paused at 9.52am AEDT pending a further announcement. ... The airline is seeking a $1.4bn loan rescue package to ensure the airline's survival beyond the COVID-19 crisis, The *Australian* reports


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## Dona Ferentes (31 March 2020)

Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said the government is committed to having two competitive domestic airlines, but didn't outline what any additional industry wide financial support might involve.


> "It is not our plan to take a stake in an airline," Mr Cormann told the ABC. "But let me also say that on the other side of all of this, we are committed to ensuring that through our policy settings and the like that on the other side, that we have two competitive airlines."




- just not VAH. 
(p1ss off the state owned predators, please)


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## sptrawler (2 April 2020)

Interesting article, regards Virgin and super fund bail outs.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...rom-their-own-ineptitude-20200402-p54gck.html
From the articel:
Unlike Qantas, however, Virgin had been poorly managed over the best part of a decade before Scurrah arrived. In that period it had doubled its capital base but generated $2 billion of losses as it transitioned from the old low-cost carrier, Virgin Blue, to Virgin Australia with the misconceived ambition of challenging Qantas head-on as a full-service carrier.

In the previous decade, which it started with seed capital of only $10 million, Virgin Blue had generated a billion dollars of profits, paid dividends and returned hundreds of millions of dollars to its shareholders.

Should Australian taxpayers bail out Virgin’s shareholders – Singapore Airlines, Etihad, China’s HNA and Nanshan and Richard Branson – for their defective stewardship over a decade of a company that, when founding chief executive Brett Godfrey left, was highly profitable and had a $1 billion equity base?


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## Dona Ferentes (4 April 2020)

> Australia’s top aviation asset is not airline operators, but one of the busiest and potentially most lucrative markets for domestic air travel in the world. The five international airlines that own Virgin will get no payday from their Australian investment, after fighting a losing capacity war with Qantas earlier in the decade and making a costly failed assault on Qantas’ premium market.





> But any other airline that can get an Australian operating licence could come in and take up the landing slots, the aircraft, the terminals, the people and skills that are still there and service the Australian market under different colours, in a healthier operation.





> And while Qantas has been happy with the status quo of an enfeebled competitor – one reason why it cynically called for a $4 billion package extended to Qantas too – many fresh entrants could give Qantas and Jetstar a run for their money.



from the AFR


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## Dona Ferentes (9 April 2020)

Going
All VA flights in Australia suspended, apart from one Syd-Mel flight a day and occasional OS charter

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...-australia-suspends-domestic-flights/12139020


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## matty77 (9 April 2020)

I never understood why Virgin changed so much over the years and got away from a successful model they had previously used...


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## Smurf1976 (9 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> All VA flights in Australia suspended, apart from one Syd-Mel flight a day and occasional OS charter




Just guessing but is there some legal, regulatory etc thing that to be considered as an airline and maintain the relevant licenses and so on they have to actually be running a regular service somewhere?

I'm thinking along the lines of the same sort of concept as large businesses who operate a single shop in some far flung place under a different name to everything else they run just to retain the trademark on that other name or things like insurers insisting that a house can't be unoccupied more than 6 months. Etc. Is there anything like that with aviation that would prompt them to run that single service each day to comply with whatever rule?

It's hard to see how they'd be making any actual money out of it. For one flight a day it would almost be cheaper to just shut the entire operation - hence my thinking that there's some reason they need to keep flying even if only at a token level.


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## sptrawler (9 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just guessing but is there some legal, regulatory etc thing that to be considered as an airline and maintain the relevant licenses and so on they have to actually be running a regular service somewhere?
> 
> I'm thinking along the lines of the same sort of concept as large businesses who operate a single shop in some far flung place under a different name to everything else they run just to retain the trademark on that other name or things like insurers insisting that a house can't be unoccupied more than 6 months. Etc. Is there anything like that with aviation that would prompt them to run that single service each day to comply with whatever rule?
> 
> It's hard to see how they'd be making any actual money out of it. For one flight a day it would almost be cheaper to just shut the entire operation - hence my thinking that there's some reason they need to keep flying even if only at a token level.



They probaly lose their parking spot at Sydney and Melbourne airports, if they dont use it. Lol


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## Dona Ferentes (9 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just guessing but is there some legal, regulatory etc thing that to be considered as an airline and maintain the relevant licenses and so on they have to actually be running a regular service somewhere?
> 
> I'm thinking along the lines of the same sort of concept as large businesses who operate a single shop in some far flung place under a different name to everything else they run just to retain the trademark on that other name or things like insurers insisting that a house can't be unoccupied more than 6 months. Etc. Is there anything like that with aviation that would prompt them to run that single service each day to comply with whatever rule?
> 
> It's hard to see how they'd be making any actual money out of it. For one flight a day it would almost be cheaper to just shut the entire operation - hence my thinking that there's some reason they need to keep flying even if only at a token level.



 might have a contract with Australia Post.... Or the other thing is landing slots?


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## Altron57 (10 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just guessing but is there some legal, regulatory etc thing that to be considered as an airline and maintain the relevant licenses and so on they have to actually be running a regular service somewhere?




Yep, the AOC - Air Operators Certificate - the final one-page approval document from CASA to start operating your airline. They take years of work and millions - even tens of millions - of dollars of setup costs to get. 

Only granted after everything else is in place and signed off by the regulator - training systems, ops manuals, safety management systems, approvals of key personnel (CASA have to personally approve the candidates for CEO, head of flight ops, head of maintenance, head of flight training, and some others, to make sure they have the requisite experience and respect for safety), multiple practice operations (trial flights of proposed routes, using real aircraft and crew, but carrying no passengers, with CASA inspectors in the cockpit and on the ground monitoring everything that happens), maintenance training, inspections of spare parts stores, parts record-keeping, dangerous goods, pilot training standards, audits of baggage handlers, refuellers, pushback drivers... it takes _years._

Then, finally, one day the boss of the CASA team of 20 people who oversaw your three years of work, and who had to approve thousands of your documents and procedures, walks in and plonks down your shiny new AOC and now you're an airline.

An AOC is one of the most valuable assets an airline has and if they completely stop flying it is at risk. Once it's gone you have to go through the whole multi-year startup process again, so even if an airline is on the point of insolvency they will keep flying enough to keep the AOC valid. Otherwise there is no airline to rescue.


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## Altron57 (10 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> might have a contract with Australia Post.... Or the other thing is landing slots?




Australia Post has a joint venture with Qantas. They fly a number of B737 classic freighters and BAE-146s overnight to move the post.


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## Smurf1976 (11 April 2020)

Altron57 said:


> An AOC is one of the most valuable assets an airline has and if they completely stop flying it is at risk. Once it's gone you have to go through the whole multi-year startup process again, so even if an airline is on the point of insolvency they will keep flying enough to keep the AOC valid. Otherwise there is no airline to rescue.



I see - that's the sort of concept I had in mind, some sort of regulatory requirement that requires them to keep that Sydney - Melbourne flight going hence doing so.


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## qldfrog (11 April 2020)

@Altron57 thanks for the technical input in an area most of us do not know much.


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## Dona Ferentes (11 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @Altron57 thanks for the technical input in an area most of us do not know much.



Yes. Thanks. I should have rung my Virgin ATR pilot mate and asked him, but it might be a bit insensitive. He was an instructor on the Brisbane simulator and is worried about losing accreditation. Along with all of them.

Any solution and rebuild has to come sooner rather than later because the longer this drags on the harder it's going to be putting the bits back together.

_(And won't Qantas have a field day, if holding a monopoly. At least for a few months)_


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## Smurf1976 (11 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And won't Qantas have a field day, if holding a monopoly. At least for a few months



Based on the process Altron57 described, the only options to avoid a Qantas monopoly lasting quite some time would be:

1. Virgin survives and keeps operating

2. Someone buys Virgin as a going concern. Buys literally the whole show so there's no issue about key people etc, it's just a takeover in terms of ownership. The same pilots keep flying the same planes, etc.

3. If it turns out that someone else just happens to be in the process of setting up an airline in Australia and is just about ready to go with their licenses etc.

Other than that, Qantas would seem to be able to charge right up to the point where it encourages people to drive or catch a bus / train / ship interstate as appropriate.


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## Dona Ferentes (14 April 2020)

In Trading Halt

.... "continues to consider ongoing issues with respect to financial assistance and restructuring alternatives"


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## sptrawler (14 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> In Trading Halt
> 
> .... "continues to consider ongoing issues with respect to financial assistance and restructuring alternatives"



As some said today, "if Virgin was a coal mine, it would be already shut down", pretty good analogy.
The owners are going to have to find some money, from somewhere.


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## matty77 (14 April 2020)

They could offer Australia Post first class seats for each of its packages?
On a serious note though, what are the options from the Government to save them? Can they put money into the business and take some form of ownership? Obviously Qantas wouldnt allow that I would assume...


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## sptrawler (14 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> On a serious note though, what are the options from the Government to save them? Can they put money into the business and take some form of ownership? Obviously Qantas wouldnt allow that I would assume...



The Government could be forced to open domestic routes to international carriers, it may be a case that Australia doesn't have enough domestic air travelers to support two full service carriers, it is a big country with a relatively small population.
It wouldn't be the first industry, that has struggled because of Australia's demographics, it wouldn't be the first airline failure in Australia either.


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## Smurf1976 (14 April 2020)

Another option government has is that they let Virgin go bust and then implement price controls on Qantas.

We're in a new world now so I wouldn't rule that sort of thing out. I'm cautious about QAN for that reason, government probably won't hand them a blank cheque.

Banks, energy and aviation are sectors which are always at least somewhat prone to government regulation either directly to limit profit or which otherwise has that consequence and in recent times aviation is the only one of the three to have not had that actually occur. Don't assume it won't.


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 April 2020)

Telecommunications will come in to their own and abolish much of the travel associated with non-coalface work in resources, health and other industries.

Tourism is a dead parrot for the foreseeable 12-24 mo. period.

I cannot see other than a limited capacity for bums on seats for QAN.

And as for VAH.....

Most of the VAH stock is in Chinese and other overseas hands, a limited amount is held by and traded by Australians on the ASX. Small numbers in volume.

Then they could be taken over after a stiff dilution.

gg


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## jbocker (14 April 2020)

Heard some chat that if the govt bails VAH out then why not govt get some ownership in the form of shares. When VAH gets on its feet again and is in profit the govt can sell it off (not to foreign ownership). Currently what stops a foreign interest buying it up now at a bargain anyway. Keeps VAH in the air and  QANTAS to be competitive and not a monopolised airline.


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## jbocker (14 April 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Tourism is a dead parrot for the foreseeable 12-24 mo. period.



Question is, do we see this as an opportunity. Will potential tourists from overseas view Australia to be a 'safe' place explore. Also will we spend more of our own holidays within our own country.
If we really desire this to be the case we will need to start to do something about it.
Would letting VAH fall over be in our best interests if we want tourism, isn't this an opportunity the govt should is screaming for. Is it an opportunity to have cheaper inter and intra state travel for tourism? ? ?
_Assumption_: we do make Australia safe and we can manage 'safe' Co-vid free tourists.


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## Country Lad (15 April 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Most of the VAH stock is in Chinese and other overseas hands, a limited amount is held by and traded by Australians on the ASX. Small numbers in volume.
> gg




Most is correct - 91.3%

EAG Investment Holding Company Limited (Etihad Airways)            20.94%
Singapore Airlines Limited                                                             20.09%
Nanshan Capital Holdings Limited (Chinese conglomerate)                19.98%
HNA Tourism Group Co., Limited (Chinese conglomerate)                  19.82%
Corvina Holdings Limited (Virgin)                                                    10.47%

I suppose part of the government's quandry is why bail out this lot, they can afford to keep it afloat themselves. Effectively an overseas owned airline


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> EAG Investment Holding Company Limited (Etihad Airways)            20.94%
> Singapore Airlines Limited                                                             20.09%
> Nanshan Capital Holdings Limited (Chinese conglomerate)                19.98%
> HNA Tourism Group Co., Limited (Chinese conglomerate)                  19.82%
> ...



and letting Singapore take it over? another state owned entity. Capitalism with Chinese characteristics 

The hard bit is, we don't know how long this will last. And any rebound will be spluttering, tentative. I don't like the idea of socialising losses and privatising profits. Domestic travel is air-based and our island status means international flights are the only option, hence at least two players is the very minimum.


----------



## jbocker (15 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> Most is correct - 91.3%
> 
> EAG Investment Holding Company Limited (Etihad Airways)            20.94%
> Singapore Airlines Limited                                                             20.09%
> ...



Well that puts my previous posts to the sword.
Makes me wonder what the QANTAS ownership breakdown is like.


----------



## Country Lad (15 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Well that puts my previous posts to the sword.
> Makes me wonder what the QANTAS ownership breakdown is like.




As I understand it, still 50% maximum overseas allowed under the agreement for privatising way back.


----------



## Country Lad (15 April 2020)

If in fact VAH goes down the tube, then there is no doubt that we need another domestic airline.  The international side doesn't worry me because there will be enough competition in that market with all the State owned airlines flying around.

So, my view is that we need to look at what can be done domestically.  There will be significant number of aircraft sitting on the ground all over the world looking for lessees at realistic prices,  so I would like to see the government assist REX and others if willing, (together or separately) to expand their operations after this is over, so strengthening domestic and regional air routes against what could otherwise become a Qantas/Qantaslink virtual monopoly.

I reckon that is far better than propping up a failed airline owned over 90% by overseas airlines/governments.


----------



## jbocker (15 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> If in fact VAH goes down the tube, then there is no doubt that we need another domestic airline.  The international side doesn't worry me because there will be enough competition in that market with all the State owned airlines flying around.
> 
> So, my view is that we need to look at what can be done domestically.  There will be significant number of aircraft sitting on the ground all over the world looking for lessees at realistic prices,  so I would like to see the government assist REX and others if willing, (together or separately) to expand their operations after this is over, so strengthening domestic and regional air routes against what could otherwise become a Qantas/Qantaslink virtual monopoly.
> 
> I reckon that is far better than propping up a failed airline owned over 90% by overseas airlines/governments.



Love your thinking Country Lad. Maybe I can rescue some 'argument' from the previous post just remove VAH comment. Maybe something similar like Royalties for Regions sponsoring Australian inter and intra state travel and bolster the Royal Flying Doctor service along with it.


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## Boggo (15 April 2020)

This is a worry I guess ?

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/vir...wzzc83jyxFLcafRc5YUdrk-nj7OPbarrSr9y5DOhM8r5U


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## sptrawler (15 April 2020)

Boggo said:


> This is a worry I guess ?
> 
> https://www.afr.com/street-talk/vir...wzzc83jyxFLcafRc5YUdrk-nj7OPbarrSr9y5DOhM8r5U



Sure is Boggo, if the owners wont put money in, the Government would be off its rocker to bail them out.
Like I said in an earlier post, maybe it proves Australia is too small a market place for two major airlines, it isn't as though history hasn't shown it to be so.
Ansett, Compass, even Qantas nearly went ar$e up a few years ago untill the Government bailed them out.
Trawl through this lot, at your leisure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Defunct_airlines_of_Australia


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## Value Collector (15 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Heard some chat that if the govt bails VAH out then why not govt get some ownership in the form of shares. When VAH gets on its feet again and is in profit the govt can sell it off (not to foreign ownership). Currently what stops a foreign interest buying it up now at a bargain anyway. Keeps VAH in the air and  QANTAS to be competitive and not a monopolised airline.




Virgin has offered an ownership stake to the government as a sweetener for supplying a loan didn’t they?


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## Boggo (15 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Sure is Boggo, if the owners wont put money in, the Government would be off its rocker to bail them out.




I guess that the big five investors are feeling it too at the moment and are obviously not willing to take on additional debt. I could say that they are willing to take profit but I don't think they have had any of that either.
I live in hope for all the staff, having been a part of the Ansett debacle I know what they must be feeling.


----------



## sptrawler (15 April 2020)

Boggo said:


> I guess that the big five investors are feeling it too at the moment and are obviously not willing to take on additional debt. I could say that they are willing to take profit but I don't think they have had any of that either.
> I live in hope for all the staff, having been a part of the Ansett debacle I know what they must be feeling.



Yes Ansett from memory, was one of the messiest Australian business train wrecks in recent history.


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## jbocker (16 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Virgin has offered an ownership stake to the government as a sweetener for supplying a loan didn’t they?



Not sure VC.


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## Boggo (16 April 2020)

Telling it how it is ??

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/virgin-is-better-off-going-through-insolvency#


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## Dona Ferentes (16 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Ansett, Compass, even Qantas nearly went ar$e up a few years ago until the Government bailed them out.
> Trawl through this lot, at your leisure.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Defunct_airlines_of_Australia



Great trawl 

Of course, Compass has iteration I and II. Couldn't find Bush Pilots of Australia, but there it is, absorbed into Air Queensland... those Metroliners were scary, short wings such a high runway speed!


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## Dona Ferentes (16 April 2020)

Virgin had $4.8 billion in interest-bearing liabilities at December 31 and $900 million in unrestricted cash and short term investments. Its next debt maturity is a $US350 million ($546 million) bond due in October 2021.


> The company's equity value was $720 million prior to the halt, although it is widely recognised by major shareholders that their investments will be wiped out as part of the looming restructure.



_- and if you're not going anywhere, then you're going backwards_


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## Boggo (16 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> ... those Metroliners were scary, short wings such a high runway speed!




Nah, great fun when you put on your big boy pants, just a scaled down 727


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## sptrawler (16 April 2020)

Boggo said:


> Telling it how it is ??
> 
> https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/virgin-is-better-off-going-through-insolvency#



Great to read someone who just states it as it is, rather than the PC and politically loaded rubbish normally dished up, good article Boggo.


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## Country Lad (16 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Couldn't find Bush Pilots of Australia, but there it is, absorbed into Air Queensland... those Metroliners were scary, short wings such a high runway speed!




Actually, Bush Pilots Airways changed its name to Air Queensland and was later taken over by TAA.  I have the dubious distinction of flying in the Metroliner back and forth Townsville to Mackay at least once, usually twice per week.
I always managed the front seat at the door which was the only one with legroom. Essential equipment was ear plugs.  Bushies bought a secondhand one at one stage from South America - complete with bullet holes.


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## Dona Ferentes (16 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> Actually, Bush Pilots Airways changed its name to Air Queensland and was later taken over by TAA.  I have the dubious distinction of flying in the Metroliner back and forth Townsville to Mackay at least once, usually twice per week.
> I always managed the front seat at the door which was the only one with legroom. Essential equipment was ear plugs.  Bushies bought a secondhand one at one stage from South America - complete with bullet holes.



Calling it Bushies 
They had some standards .. I left my Akubra on the rack, flying into Emerald. Got it back a week later. ( but, oh, the legroom!)


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## Country Lad (16 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Calling it Bushies




It was universally known as Bushies, particularly by the staff and the owners.  The history is worth a read. I was fortunate to have had a bit to do with them and some of the owners for quite a few years.
_Bushies: a History of Bush Pilots - Air Queensland_


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## qldfrog (17 April 2020)

Seems our tax dollars are going to both Virgin and Qantas


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Seems our tax dollars are going to both Virgin and Qantas



As it should in a free market.



Thinks. 

gg


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## qldfrog (17 April 2020)

Virgin should collapse, i know we need more than one airline but funding a collapse airline is just throwing money and we do not even get a share in either of the 2
I understand the emergency need but asking some shares should be a minimum


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## Miner (17 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Virgin should collapse, i know we need more than one airline but funding a collapse airline is just throwing money and we do not even get a share in either of the 2
> I understand the emergency need but asking some shares should be a minimum



I am not a VAH holder. Incidentally wrote an open letter to Sir Bronson today through LinkedIn to come and steer the sinking ship whereas he is taking glory on Virgin Atlantic. Probably I would never get a reply because LinkedIn profile most likely is maintained by his one of the associates.
Returning to VAH itself, I respectfully disagree that VAH should collapse on a big picture. Government has bailed few companies and spoiled many millions on few Royal Commissions.
If Government is smart (?) then they would put some KPI, ask for an interest, have Qantas to be a minority share holder of VAH as a precondiiton to put some money to Qantas as well with intelligent correlation money loaned linked with PE or Profitability etc.
That will save all of us from paying absorbant prices on air fares. At the end, tax payers will pay towards excess fare through monopoly. Companies using ONLY Qantas service will pay more. Only beneficial will be Alan Joyce and his shareholders.
With competition war, Virgin could not sustain and Qantas were hungry and efficient - no doubt on that.
We need to see through medium to long term for billion dollar investment.


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## qldfrog (17 April 2020)

M


Miner said:


> I am not a VAH holder. Incidentally wrote an open letter to Sir Bronson today through LinkedIn to come and steer the sinking ship whereas he is taking glory on Virgin Atlantic. Probably I would never get a reply because LinkedIn profile most likely is maintained by his one of the associates.
> Returning to VAH itself, I respectfully disagree that VAH should collapse on a big picture. Government has bailed few companies and spoiled many millions on few Royal Commissions.
> If Government is smart (?) then they would put some KPI, ask for an interest, have Qantas to be a minority share holder of VAH as a precondiiton to put some money to Qantas as well with intelligent correlation money loaned linked with PE or Profitability etc.
> That will save all of us from paying absorbant prices on air fares. At the end, tax payers will pay towards excess fare through monopoly. Companies using ONLY Qantas service will pay more. Only beneficial will be Alan Joyce and his shareholders.
> ...



My point is taxpayer should get some qantas shares..probably worth something, and some in virgin if we give them money
I am a shareholder of neither, not enamoured with Virgin and try to avoid Qantas when flying international.
Got ff cards on both.
Good thing is my taxes are getting lower and lower as my incomes collapses so in many ways, i will not pay for these...
Not exactly a great news


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> M
> 
> 
> Got ff cards on both.



I cashed out my points on both QAN and VAH yesterday via a beard trimmer ( for my sideburns as my barber no longer visits me at the hotel and I refuse to sit with the hoi poloi talking sober rubbish) and vouchers for stores.

gg


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## frugal.rock (19 April 2020)

So the options are;
Bankruptcy
Foreign investment takeover
Aus guv/ states bailout of sorts
Aus guv takeover, turn it into a public transport and freight airline.
Qantas should have remained in government ownership. Too expensive to buy back, however Virgin may be bought out for a song.
Letting it go to foreign investment would be shooting ourselves in the foot.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...line-from-qld-government/12160946?pfmredir=sm
I say, take over by the Australian Government. 
A solid investment for the future of Australia.
A bail out of Qantas to a certain degree also to keep it afloat, and bring partial ownership and backing back to the Australian people's.
My 

F.Rock


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## sptrawler (19 April 2020)

If the Chinese get full ownership, Qantas would have to watch out, the Chinese have very deep pockets.
They could subsidise a price war to put Qantas out of business, with the loose change in the ashtray.


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## Dona Ferentes (20 April 2020)

take off VAH from the boards


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## sptrawler (20 April 2020)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...voluntary-administration-20200420-p54lcd.html

Virgin Australia is preparing to go into voluntary administration, unable to survive under the weight of enormous debts and starved of cash by the coronavirus travel shutdown.
The airline is saddled with around $5 billion in debt and was running out of money as the coronavirus pandemic forced it to almost completely shut down its business.


The company being reborn through a deed of company arrangement struck in administration is "the airline's only chance", said a source familiar with Virgin's struggles.

In administration, an independent party will assess Virgin’s position and negotiate with shareholders and creditors about the best outcome for the business.


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## frugal.rock (20 April 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/program...oised-to-enter-voluntary/12166938?jwsource=cl


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## Dona Ferentes (20 April 2020)

The debt was there well before coronavirus arrived.


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## sptrawler (20 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Interesting when you compare the news in February 2019
> 
> https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/02/virgin-australia-reports-return-to-profitability/
> 
> ...




Your right Donna, this post from August last year, the losses were mounting up over a long period and a lot of smoke and mirrors seemed to be happening.


----------



## sptrawler (20 April 2020)

This article sums up the issues well:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...alls-for-lifeline-against-insolvency/12165550
From the article:
*Ratings agencies downgrade Virgin further, predict 'default'*
_Virgin now has $5 billion of debt that no one — including its own foreign shareholders — wants to touch.

Virgin Australia is majority foreign-owned by Etihad Airways (20.94 per cent stake), Singapore Airlines (20.09 per cent), Nanshan Group (19.98 per cent), HNA Group (19.82 per cent) and Richard Branson's Virgin Group (10.42 per cent).

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had previously suggested his country's airline was not in a position to assist Virgin, given Singapore Airlines has had to reorganise its own finances to survive the crisis.

And despite calls for billionaire founder Richard Branson to personally stump up cash, he has remained silent_.

_Jonathan Rochford, a funds manager at Narrow Road Capital, told ABC News Virgin Australia had been poorly managed for years, and he thought insolvency would be the best option.

"Virgin has a myriad of problems and a government bailout without insolvency will get in the way of fixing these problems," he said.

Mr Rochford argues Virgin has consistently struggled to attract the high paying customers to be a strong competitor to Qantas.

After an IPO at $2.25 in 2003, its shares have rarely traded above $0.50 in the past decade, he said.

"The company has pursued growth over profits adding marginal routes that weighed down the good business it had servicing the capital city routes," Mr Rochford said.

"This failed strategy has left the airline overloaded with aircraft.

"The sale and subsequent repurchase of part of the frequent flyer business has left it loaded with debt, with most of the fleet and the frequent flyer business locked up by secured creditors."
He said a government bailout, if put in place without insolvency, would "delay and obstruct the necessary restructuring and increase the risk that Virgin ultimately ends up like Ansett"_.

The vultures are hovering.


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## Value Collector (20 April 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I cashed out my points on both QAN and VAH yesterday via a beard trimmer ( for my sideburns as my barber no longer visits me at the hotel and I refuse to sit with the hoi poloi talking sober rubbish) and vouchers for stores.
> 
> gg




A few months back I used a bunch of Virgin points to book two business class return flights to he UK for me and the wife, the actual flights are on Etihad (partner airline).

I might have some interesting times ahead seeing how this pans out, eg if virgin goes bust are my flights on Etihad still valid??? and if I have to cancel or refund due to restrictions will if be possible if the Virgin points program no longer exists???

Hopefully if Virgin go belly up Etihad still honour the flights and issue credits or rebooking if I have to cancel.

I really hope virgin make it through this thing.


----------



## sptrawler (20 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> A few months back I used a bunch of Virgin points to book two business class return flights to he UK for me and the wife, the actual flights are on Etihad (partner airline).
> 
> I might have some interesting times ahead seeing how this pans out, eg if virgin goes bust do are my flights to valid??? and if I have to cancel or refund due to restrictions will if be possible if the Virgin points program no longer exists???
> 
> ...



My wife and I were booked to fly to Tokyo on Thursday on Cathay Pacific, they have given a one year credit, that has to be used withing 12 months of the original booking date (not date of flight).


----------



## Value Collector (20 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My wife and I were booked to fly to Tokyo on Thursday on Cathay Pacific, they have given a one year credit, that has to be used withing 12 months of the original booking date (not date of flight).




Yep, most airlines are doing similar thing, I am just concerned because My flights were booked with reward points, there may be some technical hitch if virgin goes belly up, Just have to wait and see I guess.


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## jbocker (21 April 2020)

OK Virgin Airlines has gone under, does QANTAS (Jetstar) simply pick up the slack in the domestic market. Not that there is much to pick up at this point, but if Australia keeps gaining on the virus we may open the interstate routes LONG before the international routes. It re-engages some of the QANTAS workforce.
Should any future Airline in Australia work with the same ownership rules as QANTAS, making it easier to justify govt bail outs in future scenarios. Should we be looking at growing up junior Aussie airline company(s) to fill the role. What happens to Virgins aircraft assets, opportunity to furnish a growing Aussie airline, cheaply?
Just talking out of my hat.


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## Smurf1976 (21 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> does QANTAS (Jetstar) simply pick up the slack in the domestic market. Not that there is much to pick up at this point, but if Australia keeps gaining on the virus we may open the interstate routes LONG before the international routes. It re-engages some of the QANTAS workforce.




Qantas (incl Jetstar) is the only direct competitor so presumably the answer would be yes.

That said, if there's still some community concern about being in confined spaces (eg aircraft) and assuming Qantas puts its fares up then I'd expect at least some increase in people driving interstate. Not likely a huge number but rationally there'd be some who are what I'll term "marginal flyers" and they'll decide to steer clear of planes for a while probably.

Other than that, well the only other option is trains or buses where they operate on the same route or for Vic - Tas going by sea. Using those is normally not really a direct competition to air travel though. People who go by train are usually people who like trains. People who cross Bass Strait by ship are usually doing so because they're taking a vehicle. Neither could really be seen as direct competition to the airlines for the majority of passengers.


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## Logique (21 April 2020)

April 2020 - voluntary administration.  

Government bailout? Where the sun don't shine Branson you creep. You don't even pay tax in this country.

Private equity will step up. Or the current well-heeled backers. The staff have access to the considerable government safety net.


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## Logique (21 April 2020)

Backers namely, from post #92 above (SpT). Why should taxpayers subsidize any of these people? 

_"Virgin now has *$5 billion of debt*...
...Virgin Australia is majority foreign-owned by *Etihad Airways *(20.94 per cent stake), *Singapore Airlines *(20.09 per cent), Nanshan Group (19.98 per cent), HNA Group (19.82 per cent) and *Richard Branson's Virgin Group* (10.42 per cent).
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had previously suggested his country's airline was not in a position to assist Virgin, given Singapore Airlines has had to reorganise its own finances to survive the crisis.
And despite calls for billionaire founder Richard Branson to personally stump up cash, he has remained silent_.."


----------



## sptrawler (21 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> OK Virgin Airlines has gone under, does QANTAS (Jetstar) simply pick up the slack in the domestic market. Not that there is much to pick up at this point, but if Australia keeps gaining on the virus we may open the interstate routes LONG before the international routes. It re-engages some of the QANTAS workforce.
> Should any future Airline in Australia work with the same ownership rules as QANTAS, making it easier to justify govt bail outs in future scenarios. Should we be looking at growing up junior Aussie airline company(s) to fill the role. What happens to Virgins aircraft assets, opportunity to furnish a growing Aussie airline, cheaply?
> Just talking out of my hat.



There is every likely hood that private equity will pick up Virgin, strip it back to bare bones and continue operating as a low cost national airline.


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## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> There is every likely hood that private equity will pick up Virgin, strip it back to bare bones and continue operating as a low cost national airline.



and give up international pretensions


----------



## investtrader (21 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> A few months back I used a bunch of Virgin points to book two business class return flights to he UK for me and the wife, the actual flights are on Etihad (partner airline).
> 
> I might have some interesting times ahead seeing how this pans out, eg if virgin goes bust are my flights on Etihad still valid??? and if I have to cancel or refund due to restrictions will if be possible if the Virgin points program no longer exists???
> 
> ...



I don't see any hope for getting anything for your points or from booked flights. I lost 1 million points when Ansett when broke and will burn 400k from Virgin for booked flights. I only transfer points in now just before booking flights, but that didn't work


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## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2020)

Not sure about the Velocity business. All you can assume is the status of any points is being devalued.

Last November, Virgin Australia Holdings raised $750mill to fund its full recapitalisation of Velocity Frequent Flyer biz. The VAH notice says the FF company, while fully owned by the Virgin Group, is not in administration.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Your right Dona, this post from August last year, the losses were mounting up over a long period and a lot of smoke and mirrors seemed to be happening.



Sadly the _*smoke and mirrors *_are entanglements.... (Ansett took a decade to unwind)


----------



## Value Collector (21 April 2020)

investtrader said:


> I don't see any hope for getting anything for your points or from booked flights. I lost 1 million points when Ansett when broke and will burn 400k from Virgin for booked flights. I only transfer points in now just before booking flights, but that didn't work




hopefully My booked flights are still valid, because I am actually booked on Etihad, not an actual virgin flight.

but I guess anything can happen.


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## Miner (21 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> If the Chinese get full ownership, Qantas would have to watch out, the Chinese have very deep pockets.
> They could subsidise a price war to put Qantas out of business, with the loose change in the ashtray.



Honestly the way we are sold out to two countries :

USA to say yes everything they do or say , unlike our neighbor NZ who is always independent and seen to be doing good things first.
Relying on every thing on China to close our strength on manufacturing excellence and instead just short time gain on selling unprocessed stocks (what a stupidity on  to lose the value addition on products made here and trying to control wages learning from the wage rate in USA and Canada - for reference I have worked both the countries  as well so sharing from first hand experience). If China sneezes we get cold and alike. Unless we do some filtering on Chinese invasion through buying crippling plants, showing them loss making so tax is missed, selling the Chinese owned mines products to their own countries and also commanding pressure on Australian government.Our education system is greedy to get overseas students fund and letting our own children not to be focussed on getting education leaving higher skilled jobs to overseas personnel by just importing them. 
Our visa system to get work permit is so simple compared to get the same in USA or CANADA so that they can keep the jobs in country first. 
Days are not very far that we would surrender the judiciary and administration to people indirectly sponsored by PRC and becoming too late to correct. See London, what happening there. Poms are here and who are there to run London ???
Just wait for not just Chinese speaking Kevin Rudd but some one like a China born PM in near distant - again too late then. 
Let me submit, I am posting for longer vision of the country and not trying to support Palmer, Hanson or Lamby's political agendas. 

 I am not giving any political tangent here but showing how we are failing to get


----------



## Colm Doc (21 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Qantas (incl Jetstar) is the only direct competitor so presumably the answer would be yes.
> 
> That said, if there's still some community concern about being in confined spaces (eg aircraft) and assuming Qantas puts its fares up then I'd expect at least some increase in people driving interstate. Not likely a huge number but rationally there'd be some who are what I'll term "marginal flyers" and they'll decide to steer clear of planes for a while probably.
> 
> Other than that, well the only other option is trains or buses where they operate on the same route or for Vic - Tas going by sea. Using those is normally not really a direct competition to air travel though. People who go by train are usually people who like trains. People who cross Bass Strait by ship are usually doing so because they're taking a vehicle. Neither could really be seen as direct competition to the airlines for the majority of passengers.



Will all of this make Qantas share holders happy or is it big trouble for all?


----------



## Boggo (21 April 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Will all of this make Qantas share holders happy or is it big trouble for all?




Could go either way Doc depends on whether the (potential) new owners take on Qantas or if they see an opportunity and also exploit as a way of finally making a profit.


----------



## sptrawler (21 April 2020)

It will be interesting to see who's ideology works? Live by the sword and all that, labor throw money at it, Coalition let the market sort it.
It's a shame Virgins owners aren't confident, to stump up the money.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...bailout-what-the-government-has-said/12169952
Labor:
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese said the Federal Government should intervene because it was the decision to protect Australians' health that put Virgin Australia in this situation.
Coalition:
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said "This is an opportunity for the company to recapitalise and come out stronger on the other side of the coronavirus crisis."
Mr Frydenberg added that the Government was committed to a "market-led solution"


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 April 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Will all of this make Qantas share holders happy or is it big trouble for all?




If someone bought Qantas shares at the beginning of the year then at the moment they've lost half their money. At least the company is still operating and isn't under administration but they've still got a lot of problems.

Air travel has collapsed to the point that even if Qantas did gain a 100% market share, that still means very few paying customers and there's the problem. Likewise if Qantas had gone bust then that wouldn't of itself have likely been enough to save Virgin.

Investing in any airline at this point is basically speculating on there being a recovery in air travel demand and that consumers can and will pay fares high enough to make the airlines profitable. As it stands now, neither are profitable businesses - it's just that Virgin ran out of money first but Qantas won't last forever without planes in the air and paying passengers in them.


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## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2020)

and presently, only can fill to 2/3 capacity. Physical separation means the middle seat in each aisle is vacant. 

So either tix rise 50% or the ability to make a buck above fixed costs is impaired. Luckily Jet A1 is cheaper (but didn't they hedge forward a while lot?)


----------



## sptrawler (21 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Investing in any airline at this point is basically speculating on there being a recovery in air travel demand and that consumers can and will pay fares high enough to make the airlines profitable. As it stands now, neither are profitable businesses - it's just that Virgin ran out of money first but Qantas won't last forever without planes in the air and paying passengers in them.



Investing in an airline at any time is a seat of the pants investment IMO. 
Very much an in and out gamble on short term volatility, IMO, a plane falls out of the sky and the shares take a hit, fuel price goes through the roof, their shares take a hit. Very shaky underpinnings from my perspective, so many things can affect their bottom line.
Just my opinion.


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## Colm Doc (22 April 2020)

Boggo said:


> Could go either way Doc depends on whether the (potential) new owners take on Qantas or if they see an opportunity and also exploit as a way of finally making a profit.



Thanks, I’ve put in a low offer for Qantas and now thinking about canceling


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## Colm Doc (22 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If someone bought Qantas shares at the beginning of the year then at the moment they've lost half their money. At least the company is still operating and isn't under administration but they've still got a lot of problems.
> 
> Air travel has collapsed to the point that even if Qantas did gain a 100% market share, that still means very few paying customers and there's the problem. Likewise if Qantas had gone bust then that wouldn't of itself have likely been enough to save Virgin.
> 
> Investing in any airline at this point is basically speculating on there being a recovery in air travel demand and that consumers can and will pay fares high enough to make the airlines profitable. As it stands now, neither are profitable businesses - it's just that Virgin ran out of money first but Qantas won't last forever without planes in the air and paying passengers in them.



Thanks, I may have to rethink about an offer I made.


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## sptrawler (22 April 2020)

A very good write up on the Virgin situation, as I said earlier maybe Australia hasn't got a big enough population for two major airlines, IMO it is the same reason Kaufland decided to pull the pin on Australia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...ustralia-cannot-sustain-two-airlines/12169620

Australia is a great Country and punches way above its weight in the first World, but it still only has a population of 25million, it isn't a big marketplace.
We think we are a big dog in the scheme of things, but in reality we are a Jack Russell, Stubborn, Fearless, Intelligent, Energetic, Athletic, and Vocal, but very small.
Just my opinion and I do like Jack Russell's, had to put mine down last year.


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## Colm Doc (23 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A very good write up on the Virgin situation, as I said earlier maybe Australia hasn't got a big enough population for two major airlines, IMO it is the same reason Kaufland decided to pull the pin on Australia.
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...ustralia-cannot-sustain-two-airlines/12169620
> 
> Australia is a great Country and punches way above its weight in the first World, but it still only has a population of 25million, it isn't a big marketplace.
> ...



Yeah, love Jackie’s too! And can see the comparison but what do you think about Qantas in all this??


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## sptrawler (23 April 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Yeah, love Jackie’s too! And can see the comparison but what do you think about Qantas in all this??



A few years ago I bought Qantas at about $1,but sold them as soon as there was a reasonable profit, Qantas is a quasi Government airline, same as the big 4 banks are semi government institutions so relatively safe.
But having said that they will never set the world on fire, it depends what you are after, income or capital gains.
The other problem with airlines I've already mentioned, exposure to fuel, people's affluence and disasters eg fall out of the sky.
So it isn't my bag, unless it's an absolute bargain and I'm using play money to buy them.
Just my opinion.


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## sptrawler (18 May 2020)

The short list of suitors for the carcass is finalised.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...uitors-to-take-over-virgin-australia/12258458
ABC News can confirm the shortlist contains four bidders: private investment firm Bain Capital, private equity firm BGH Capital, US aviation investor Indigo Partners and global investor Cyrus Capital Partners.


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## Colm Doc (18 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The short list of suitors for the carcass is finalised.
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...uitors-to-take-over-virgin-australia/12258458
> ABC News can confirm the shortlist contains four bidders: private investment firm Bain Capital, private equity firm BGH Capital, US aviation investor Indigo Partners and global investor Cyrus Capital Partners.



Do you think the Queensland government should have a stake in an airline?


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## sptrawler (18 May 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Do you think the Queensland government should have a stake in an airline?



The problem is the ACCC has stated they want a full service airline, not a State airline, having a State Government as a minority shareholder doesnt make sense, they would be in a compromised situation stumping up taxpayers money and possibly losing the lot.
It would be like the Victorian Government, taking a minority stake in Holden and Falcon, to try and save Victorian jobs.
If Qantas folded as well I would expect the Federal Government to take a majority shareholding, but in reality Governments cant prop up every company, in the name of competition.
It would be different if there was no other service provider, then it is the Goverments responsibility to provide the service.
Just my opinion.


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## qldfrog (19 May 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Do you think the Queensland government should have a stake in an airline?



As a Qlder and so associated non willingly to our supreme incompetent Premier, the answer is
NO NO NO please God have pity on us...


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## Miner (19 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> As a Qlder and so associated non willingly to our supreme incompetent Premier, the answer is
> NO NO NO please God have pity on us...



Sorry @qldfrog - you called your premier incompetent ! In which way? I am prepared to pay half of my super for her nice smile  . Surely the voters were enchanted to vote for her to make her Premier. So why complaint ??????????????


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## qldfrog (19 May 2020)

Miner said:


> Sorry @qldfrog - you called your premier incompetent ! In which way? I am prepared to pay half of my super for her nice smile  . Surely the voters were enchanted to vote for her to make her Premier. So why complaint ??????????????



Do not blame me, labour candidates were rare, no one in the party wanted to be defeated so she was selected in absence of anyone else and got elected.
The tragedy of democracy..
I am keen for anyone pointing on anything good she has achieved , any qld labour supporter to help here?
Mandated election at start of pandemic, corruption/favoritism, more and more public servants, increasing debt and raiding PS super funds to fill some of the budget debts
And just listen to her speak for 5 minutes.where is the intellect: i recently looked at her career, never got a job politician since daddy put her in place
Irrespective of her/your side of politics, a disgrace.
Juggling with Adani shows the moral compass.
But she might put her name in history by funding a collapsed foreign airline


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## qldfrog (19 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Do not blame me, labour candidates were rare, no one in the party wanted to be defeated so she was selected in absence of anyone else and got elected.
> The tragedy of democracy..
> I am keen for anyone pointing on anything good she has achieved , any qld labour supporter to help here?
> Mandated election at start of pandemic, corruption/favoritism, more and more public servants, increasing debt and raiding PS super funds to fill some of the budget debts
> ...



I. Boted for some decent labour premier premier here but bight bight and worse her are reaching summum in in negative.Anns Blight was crooked but bright enough, Paluchet..


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## sptrawler (19 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I. Boted for some decent labour premier premier here but bight bight and worse her are reaching summum in in negative.Anns Blight was crooked but bright enough, Paluchet..



Your going to have to repeat that, I think you broke into your native tongue, or started stuttering.


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## qldfrog (20 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Your going to have to repeat that, I think you broke into your native tongue, or started stuttering.



I know..only on my phone and this forum, discussed a while back with Joe.basically what i type is mangled and corrections not appearing as they are made.i have to post, do an edit..which itself is mangled then post again and re-read.
And if i miss one step..late at night or interrupted..you get the above.
I believe it is due to interaction between keyboard auto corrector, satellite lag,and i suspect some forum based spelling check or formatting behaviour..not that i post an many other platforms but FB or wechat do not behave that way.
I found a solution if i go into desktop mode but then it gets pretty tedious to view ASF on the phone.


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## qldfrog (20 May 2020)

The above only needed one edit


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## qldfrog (20 May 2020)

Back to poor Virgin collapse..i have always felt treated like **** when flying Virgin.Worse was a Bali trip a coule of years ago and i only flew Virgin after that when i had no choice or for codeshare imposed.Never a good experience...


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## Miner (20 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Do not blame me, labour candidates were rare, no one in the party wanted to be defeated so she was selected in absence of anyone else and got elected.
> The tragedy of democracy..
> I am keen for anyone pointing on anything good she has achieved , any qld labour supporter to help here?
> Mandated election at start of pandemic, corruption/favoritism, more and more public servants, increasing debt and raiding PS super funds to fill some of the budget debts
> ...



Well said @qldfrog  on this and few other  posts on this thread.
I did not see any mention of the way Adani deal was signed off and involvement of QLD Premier's husband's role as a consultant. 
Australian politics was never so corrupt .
Returning on VAH, some good signs are hopefully appear. 
Let's hope.


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## Dona Ferentes (20 May 2020)

VA was always pretty ho-hum. Always about $5 a seat lower than QF. Their yield management looked amateurish, and the collection of odd-bods in "Business Class" all looked like freeloaders or relatives. Hardly a full fare payer among them. But I took them in preference to Jetstar on the routes I use (OOL, CBR, HBA).


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## Colm Doc (23 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Do not blame me, labour candidates were rare, no one in the party wanted to be defeated so she was selected in absence of anyone else and got elected.
> The tragedy of democracy..
> I am keen for anyone pointing on anything good she has achieved , any qld labour supporter to help here?
> Mandated election at start of pandemic, corruption/favoritism, more and more public servants, increasing debt and raiding PS super funds to fill some of the budget debts
> ...



Hi, I agree that Labour’s support of the Adani mine was disgusting and a betrayal of labour voters but the proposal of backing VA is just a loan and could protect some QLD jobs.


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## Colm Doc (23 May 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Hi, I agree that Labour’s support of the Adani mine was disgusting and a betrayal of labour voters but the proposal of backing VA is just a loan and could protect some QLD jobs.



Are we not supposed to be discussing the stock market not politics? Sorry


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## qldfrog (23 May 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Hi, I agree that Labour’s support of the Adani mine was disgusting and a betrayal of labour voters but the proposal of backing VA is just a loan and could protect some QLD jobs.



A loan to an overseas company which is and has been unprofitable now even in boom time, this loan will be a few cents distribution  after bankruptcy


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## qldfrog (23 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> A loan to an overseas company which is and has been unprofitable now even in boom time, this loan will be a few cents distribution  after bankruptcy



As for job, refusing to open the borders when we have an Australian captive domestic tourism market..tells a lot about the incompetence of this government.they are mad...
Bring back a Goss or Beattie, at least they had some brain and were not corrupt


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## Colm Doc (23 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> As for job, refusing to open the borders when we have an Australian captive domestic tourism market..tells a lot about the incompetence of this government.they are mad...
> Bring back a Goss or Beattie, at least they had some brain and were not corrupt



Time will tell if protecting Queensland against the virus was smart or not (short time pain, long term gain) VA will be foreign owned one way or another. State government involvement would keep the company in Queensland, that should be good for QLD? As a Qantas shareholder I’m not sure if a single airline is good for Australia or just good for me. Thoughts?


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## Miner (23 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> As for job, refusing to open the borders when we have an Australian captive domestic tourism market..tells a lot about the incompetence of this government.they are mad...
> Bring back a Goss or Beattie, at least they had some brain and were not corrupt




I respectfully disagree the call that stopping the borders is a mistake. It is for a change good strategic direction that governments have taken. France did not - they are suffering. Our international lunatic pornstar and Casanova in USA failed even  to recognise Corona was a real threat inspite having such an elite intelligence department, Harvard and Wharton trained management gurus, millions of spies, and thousands of satellites. Those  were mistakes.
Lets look at NZ - small country but a smart one. For a change this time our politicians even belated, behaved appropriately.  We Aussies are real impatient and always pass the bucks to politicians. No politics but we send the politicians.

Corona is a disaster - but is a short term. 1930 depression was there and we came back. 
But with a small population if we say short term closure of borders is a wrong decision and suggestions  to correlate VAH failure is partly due to border closure - I believe, is a bigger mistake.
Look at Alliance (AQG) and Qantas - how they are surviving ? 
In fact AQG is booming. 

I love VAH even have lost lots of points, I love the beauties and services of Virgin air hostesses more than the air hostesses from Qantas, Cathay and Singapore airlines. 

BUT I would not suggest that VAH's poor management is coming from border closures. 
What is Sir Richard doing with his leadership on this sick child ? 

Only Government to blame for VAH ?? No.


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## qldfrog (23 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> As for job, refusing to open the borders when we have an Australian captive domestic tourism market..tells a lot about the incompetence of this government.they are mad...
> Bring back a Goss or Beattie, at least they had some brain and were not corrupt





Miner said:


> I respectfully disagree the call that stopping the borders is a mistake. It is for a change good strategic direction that governments have taken. France did not - they are suffering. Our international lunatic pornstar and Casanova in USA failed even  to recognise Corona was a real threat inspite having such an elite intelligence department, Harvard and Wharton trained management gurus, millions of spies, and thousands of satellites. Those  were mistakes.
> Lets look at NZ - small country but a smart one. For a change this time our politicians even belated, behaved appropriately.  We Aussies are real impatient and always pass the bucks to politicians. No politics but we send the politicians.
> 
> Corona is a disaster - but is a short term. 1930 depression was there and we came back.
> ...



Misunderstood, i just point Paluchet is pretending saving jobs with my tax money while killing thousands of them via the qld border closure.
Closing Australian borders is not in question but preventing nsw or sa visitors is killing our tourist industry when it had a captured market
Incompetence.
As for virgin, let it die if it was not able to be profitable 12 months ago...
But i believe in free market and not collectivism which is so outdated nowadays


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## qldfrog (23 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Misunderstood, i just point Paluchet is pretending saving jobs with my tax money while killing thousands of them via the qld border closure.
> Closing Australian borders is not in question but preventing nsw or sa visitors is killing our tourist industry when it had a captured market
> Incompetence.
> As for virgin, let it die if it was not able to be profitable 12 months ago...
> But i believe in free market and not collectivism which is so outdated nowadays



And yes it is management incompetence


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## Dona Ferentes (24 June 2020)

The Bondholders in Virgin, with some $2 billion held in the collapsed airline but with a claim on proceedings, were always going to be a sticking point for the 'fast and loose money' from NY.

Today, there has been a proposal for bondholders to swap their debt – and the debt of other Virgin creditors where applicable – for equity in a restructured Virgin that would then *be re-listed on the ASX.*

The proposal is made up of about $2 billion in debt, $800 million in new capital to stand the airline back up again and $125 million in interim funding to get Virgin through the next few months. This suggests that through some mechanism or another, at least some of the 30 institutions in the bondholder group are prepared to tip more funds in.


> It won’t be surprising to see the bondholders ramp up the Team Australia nature of their bid against two big money firms out of New York. The idea is that Virgin would then return to the ASX boards with far less debt, and so be better placed to weather what will clearly be a difficult period – perhaps as long as two years – while the world recovers from the pandemic.
> 
> The entitlements of Virgin’s 9,000 workers will be honoured, the obligations Virgin has under its Velocity loyalty program will be honoured and all travel credits issued by the stricken airline will be honoured. Virgin’s management team would also be retained under the proposal.


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## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

Looks like Bain Capital are going to save the Virgin:
"Bain Capital agrees to buy Virgin Australia"(https://www.businessinsider.com/bain-capital-agrees-to-buy-virgin-australia-2020-6)


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## Miner (26 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Looks like Bain Capital are going to save the Virgin:
> "Bain Capital agrees to buy Virgin Australia"(https://www.businessinsider.com/bain-capital-agrees-to-buy-virgin-australia-2020-6)



The same announcement said, no liability for share holders


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## MovingAverage (26 June 2020)

I wish you all the best Bain and I hope you make a real go of it. However, buying an airline in the current environment--talk about having a big set of nuts for doing that in the current environment.


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## Chronos-Plutus (27 June 2020)

It goes without saying that the airline is structurally troubled. There will be a major overhaul of the fleet, operating leases, flight operations and networks. A great deal of fat is going to be trimmed to turn this airline around.


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## MovingAverage (27 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It goes without saying that the airline is structurally troubled. There will be a major overhaul of the fleet, operating leases, flight operations and networks. A great deal of fat is going to be trimmed to turn this airline around.




i think their challenges go well beyond "structurally troubled". So many major extrinsic challenges.


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## sptrawler (30 June 2020)

Sounds like the shareholders get zip, another one bites the dust. 
At least they got the news out early enough, holders may be able to claim the capital loss this year, worth checking.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200630/pdf/44k24znyhl1wcq.pdf


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## System (19 November 2020)

On November 17th, 2020, Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (VAH) was removed from the ASX's Official List at the request of VAH, pursuant to Listing Rule 17.11, and as outlined in VAH's announcement on 16 November 2020 titled “Transfer of shares and delisting”.


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## Colm Doc (19 November 2020)

skc said:


> I have this pair open yesterday and today.
> 
> Long QAN @ $1.49. Short VAH @ 43c.
> 
> ...



Hi, any thoughts on Qantas for a long term investment ?


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## sptrawler (19 November 2020)

Colm Doc said:


> Hi, any thoughts on Qantas for a long term investment ?



Have you searched the QAN thread in the stocks forum, or just use the search function on the home page, the QAN thread is only 21 pages so it isn't hard to read through the recent posts.


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