# Roller's Intraday futures journey



## Roller_1

Hi Guys

I have decided to start my own journal while I attempt my own intraday discretionary futures trading Journey.

I am focusing on the Nikkei at this stage due to the similar time zone that the day session has with us. It is not practical for me to be trading at night or into the late evening. Trying to get 2-3 days a week in but i'll be checking the charts everyday obviously.

Over probably the last five years I have predominantly focused on systematic stock systems. While I will continue to trade them on the ASX and the US markets I have an itch that I need to try and scratch in regards to future trading.

After also following @Modest  journey in his journal and also exchanging  emails with @captain black  I have decided to take the plunge. At the start of the year I paper traded for a few months but life got in the way. I am back sim trading and will do this until I feel more confident.

I will mainly be throwing some charts up on this thread and some possible ideas I have in regards to trades. i'm keeping amore detailed journal in onenote for myself, i'll try and keep this thread updated. Hopefully a few people follow along and share something insights. My focus is on support/resistance areas incorporating multiple time frames


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## Roller_1

This is the current 60 chart of the Nikkei with some areas of interest marked up. These gaps have thrown me a bit the last week and made the chart a bit messy. I've been focusing on shorts the last few sessions waiting to fill these gaps. 




Just a couple of trades today got stopped on the high of the day, was probably not an ideal stop placement and the second my target was missed by a tick when i had to duck out of the house for 30 mins, i ended up closing the position after some short term strength came in


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## Modest

You keeping an eye on your HTF levels? Start on a Monthly, Weekly and drill down. Easy to be chilling on the hourly chart take a short but then it pops and rips your shirt off because you just hit a weekly level and you weren’t even aware of it 😉


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## Roller_1

We filled the gaps overnight and could get a nice push up from here. 

I tried a long early before cash open but got stopped out. I find it hard first thing in the morning with big swings and trying to get good stop placements. Already getting a big push up. Hopefully wait for a pull back to enter.


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## Roller_1

Got the nice push up i was looking for and a pull back to enter. I wa getting nervous after the entry with some low closes on the 5 min bars.

Target got hit which i thought it could be conservative. Over all i think price might go to 29500 before a decent reversal.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Over all i think price might go to 29500 before a decent reversal.




Boomed straight through 29500. Nothing much in the way to 29750-840 possibly, a big move though i think?. Was waiting for a retest of 29500 but not there yet.


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## tech/a

Some good work and nice thinking/analysis.
Watching with interest.


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## Roller_1

tech/a said:


> Some good work and nice thinking/analysis.
> Watching with interest.



Thanks Tech

Was tempted to go long once the minor overnight zone held just after opening but was below a important level, hindsight hey


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## tech/a

Could talk all day on Index futures. (Well Technically) 
I trade the DAX--not as much these days as Im so busy and tiered at night
and dont neeeed to.
But i do notice a lot of re occurring technical indications in charts. To be honest 
I Haven't re searched if they are common to all index futures charts. They are 
common in analysis principals though.

EG
Sharp moves with Shallow consolidations tend to continue.(The consolidation after your move is boarder line to me)
Hook bars on High/Low Tests tend to indicate reversals. (See the bottom of the chart you posted above)
Long bases tend to hold  (In your consolidation)
Blasts through Resistance or Support tend to not be revisited soon.

Interested if you observe similar.

And more but later.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Was waiting for a retest of 29500 but not there yet.




Got the pull back but was waiting for a push down with some volume into the blue box. Might be a tradeless day, not worried about P/L too much at this stage just getting a feel for things. I have to head to work after lunch, be interesting too see what happens after the lunchbreak in Tokyo 2pm SA time


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## Roller_1

tech/a said:


> EG
> Sharp moves with Shallow consolidations tend to continue.(The consolidation after your move is boarder line to me)
> Hook bars on High/Low Tests tend to indicate reversals. (See the bottom of the chart you posted above)
> Long bases tend to hold (In your consolidation)
> Blasts through Resistance or Support tend to not be revisited soon.
> 
> Interested if you observe similar.




Will be interesting if i do.

I'm trying to to get married to any patterns/observation i have at the moment, i'm still very new to this style but will see how i go.


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## Roller_1

Does anyone have any idea why my weekly charts (and daily) are different in ninja trader compared to IB? I am using data from IB in ninja trader so it must be the start times/end times I guess?


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## Lone Wolf

It has been a long time since I used NT (was probably still NT7). But I do remember this problem. At the time, NT used your system clock when creating the bars, which didn't match whatever IB uses to display their data. There might be an option to set market trading hours. I just did a very quick google search, see if this helps at all:






						Trading Hours details -  		 		NinjaTrader Support Forum
					

Is there a listing of the exact trading hours used by each option?  I'm having trouble reproducing a chart from another platform.  On Canadian dollar for a daily chart in ThinkOrSwim with extended hours turned on I cannot get Ninja to produce the same daily bar.  ThinkOrSwim seems to use a 6pm...



					ninjatrader.com
				




Nice work on starting the thread by the way. Best of luck on your new journey.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Nothing much in the way to 29750-840 possibly, a big move though i think?. Was waiting for a retest of 29500 but not there yet.




The high this morning was 29850 wasn't watching but i pretty slow day after that. 

Possibly a pull back towards 29500 before a run up to the next level around 30060-110, if the up trend continues. I won't be trading tomorrow but watching from afar.


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## Modest

Good level


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## Roller_1

Lone Wolf said:


> It has been a long time since I used NT (was probably still NT7). But I do remember this problem. At the time, NT used your system clock when creating the bars, which didn't match whatever IB uses to display their data. There might be an option to set market trading hours. I just did a very quick google search, see if this helps at all:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trading Hours details -  		 		NinjaTrader Support Forum
> 
> 
> Is there a listing of the exact trading hours used by each option?  I'm having trouble reproducing a chart from another platform.  On Canadian dollar for a daily chart in ThinkOrSwim with extended hours turned on I cannot get Ninja to produce the same daily bar.  ThinkOrSwim seems to use a 6pm...
> 
> 
> 
> ninjatrader.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nice work on starting the thread by the way. Best of luck on your new journey.




Thanks, I will contact support and see what they say. I have adjusted some options so that might help if I reload new ones


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## Roller_1

I Put a few trades on early today, both were losers. But for some reason my ninja trader is playing up so I will be trying to sort that out. I think trying to fix something messed something else up...


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## Roller_1

Back at the charts today after being away last week.

Important area at the top of this zone I think. It is looking like price is going to open around the 29680 area, basically the bottom of that last down bar. 

Let's see what today brings


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## Roller_1

Update: Data issues still with TWS/NT8


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## Roller_1

Pretty rough day for the Nikkei. I finally got my data issue sorted out… I think. It wasn't until lunchtime though. I will say that ninja trade support are very good, especially since I'm only using the free version. quick on the replies and seem happy to help.

Originally I thought if the short was on, it would end up around 29,400 mark but it blasted through that pretty well.

I only put one trade for the day a retest of a previous area I had identified. Hindsight says i got in early and just missed my stop but that's ok for now. +120 points

 Because I had to reinstall NT last week, I didn't set the point  value/tick sizes up right. Apparently this one trade got me 12 K… I think I need to readjust that   also had to reset my Sim balance, but that hasn't moved much at all.


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## Roller_1

Zone of interest for possible short is around that box area, or maybe slightly lower.

Otherwise I will be looking for another retest of the two lines below the current price.


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## captain black

Roller_1 said:


> Zone of interest for possible short is around that box area, or maybe slightly lower.




Good call 

High volume upthrust at 11:35 your time and a test about 10-15 minutes later signalled a short @29555.


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## Roller_1

I was a bit too keen! Once I saw that high-volume push-up and no follow-through I was tempted to jump back in again at 29535 if it broke below but after a couple of losses pulled out.  I should have been more patient and tried to get my stop above 29600 i think. 

Fomo trade earlier that i bailed from when i knew it was dumb.

See what happens around 400-420 if we drift down. Important area imo


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Zone of interest for possible short is around that box area, or maybe slightly lower.
> 
> Otherwise I will be looking for another retest of the two lines below the current price.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 133368





Price has been fluctuating in this zone most of the day, refuelling. 

Even if price does reverse from here, it may not have been the best plan with that 29400 area below it.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Price has been fluctuating in this zone most of the day, refuelling.
> 
> Even if price does reverse from here, it may not have been the best plan with that 29400 area below it.
> 
> View attachment 133383




I was hoping for something like the line that I have drawn on the chart below for a chance to get in before a potential drop. But a big gap below and then no pullback towards the 29,400 area I didn't get in short. Instead I jumped in front of the moving train… Twice, trying to pick the bottom. Something to learn from.

Still dropping like a rock! Straight through my mrked area.


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## Roller_1

another brutal afternoon session in the Nikkei, dropping almost 1000 points in just over an hour! I didn't Get to do any trading today as I got back to the PC just in time to watch the carnage. Covid is a gift that keeps on giving…


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## Roller_1

I haven't been very good at keeping this thread updated!

It looks like we have started to form a bit of a range in the Nikkei, if price gets down to the lower zone I have marked up I will look to get long if it looks like it is going to hold. Another area of interest is the 27850. We just opened a bit higher than the close so let's see what today brings!


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## Roller_1

An update,

I always tell myself I'm going to try and be more patient, but I got a bit too keen on the first touch of the 27850 area. That didn't allow me to get my stop above where I wanted (just above the double lines) and my stop got hit. I had another go on the breakdown and the rejection of that higher zone, currently short from 27840.

Maybe I should get into positions using stop orders instead of limit orders, at least this way price will be moving in the direction I want before I enter. Something to consider. Thoughts anyone?


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## Cam019

@Roller_1 I have been lurking from the sidelines. Great thread BTW!

I actually trade the EURUSD intraday (mainly because it has the lowest CFD spreads).

If you don't mind, I'll pop up some of my analysis of the Nikkei futures. Maybe we can scope somethings out. Usually I enter on the 1 and 5 minute timeframes but I will pop out a few timeframes for analysis.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> If you don't mind, I'll pop up some of my analysis of the Nikkei futures. Maybe we can scope somethings out. Usually I enter on the 1 and 5 minute timeframes but I will pop out a few times for analysis.




Great sounds good. I'm pretty green to this type of trading so always good too discuss. What sort of analysis are you basing your trades on?


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## Cam019

I learn't everything from MENTFX on his free YouTube videos. It's a great source of knowledge. It's basically based on smart money concepts, where liquidity lies in the market that the composite man would target, supply and demand zones, etc.


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## Cam019




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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Maybe I should get into positions using stop orders instead of limit orders, at least this way price will be moving in the direction I want before I enter. Something to consider. Thoughts anyone?



I always use limit orders. I used to use stop orders though, until I learn't to mark up my charts correctly. Now it's limit orders alllllll day.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> I learn't everything from MENTFX on his free YouTube videos. It's a great source of knowledge. It's basically based on smart money concepts, where liquidity lies in the market that the composite man would target, supply and demand zones, etc.




Great, i'll check it out. Sounds similar to what i'm focusing on..


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## Cam019

Cam019 said:


>





So, now what I have done is set an alert for price crossing above 27980, then I wait for my alert to go off and then I'll go back to the charts to look for a potential entry on lower timeframes.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


>



When you say this Bar, what bar you referring to in your commentary on the chart?


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## captain black

Another Wyckoff trader, excellent!!

Look forward to your posts Cam


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> So, now what I have done is set an alert for price crossing above 27980, then I wait for my alert to go off and then I'll go back to the charts to look for a potential entry on lower timeframes.




Oh yep, got you


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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> When you say this Bar, what bar you referring to in your commentary on the chart?








The range of the two candles marked. So the green candle is the 'up move before the down move that broke structure on this timeframe', however because the wick of the following candle reaches above the high of the green candle preceding the break of structure, we use that too.


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## Cam019

Remember the fractility of the markets. Everything I am talking about here works in all liquid markets on all timeframes.

Also, not all of these setups will work. Some will never reach the zones you have marked, some will take off without you - doesn't matter. If the markets are fractal, which they are, there are more setups across all timeframes than you could ever take.

The most important thing is patience and a framework to mark up your charts and *wait* for your setups to present themselves. Don't force the trades.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Remember the fractility of the markets. Everything I am talking about here works in all liquid markets on all timeframes.
> 
> Also, not all of these setups will work. Some will never reach the zones you have marked, some will take off without you - doesn't matter. If the markets are fractal, which they are, there are more setups across all timeframes than you could ever take.
> 
> The most important thing is patience and a framework to mark up your charts and *wait* for your setups to present themselves. Don't force the trades.




Thanks, that is one of the main things I need to work on not spraying trades all over the place because I can on a similar account. I need to wait for logical setups in logical places.

Well that is one of the things anyway


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## Modest

Goldmine of knowledge just dropped by Cam, nice share mate!


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## captain black

Cam019 said:


> Remember the fractility of the markets. Everything I am talking about here works in all liquid markets on all timeframes.




+1

Basic Wyckoff principles around price action, volume, supply and demand are still as relevant today as they were in Wyckoff's days 100 years ago.


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## captain black

Modest said:


> Goldmine of knowledge just dropped by Cam, nice share mate!




How's things Mods? Had to shake the dust off the cowboy boots the last few days, been some nice moves.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> I learn't everything from MENTFX on his free YouTube videos. It's a great source of knowledge. It's basically based on smart money concepts, where liquidity lies in the market that the composite man would target, supply and demand zones, etc.




This guy is intense! lol Quick mouth on him. But videos are looking like they'll be good, thanks for the heads up. Tradingview looks nice too! Is that all you use?


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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> This guy is intense! lol Quick mouth on him. But videos are looking like they'll be good, thanks for the heads up. Tradingview looks nice too! Is that all you use?



Hahaha! Yeah, he is funny! But man, he has excellent content. As I said - I learnt to trade smart money concepts soley from him - from his free videos. Which is ridiculous that that kind of content is out there for free!

Yep, the free version of trading view is all I use. I am thinking about upgrading to 'Pro' which is $14.95 USD per month so I can have some more alerts (you can only place 1 alert with the free version). But, yeah, thats it.

In all aspects of my trading, I find that less is more.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Hahaha! Yeah, he is funny! But man, he has excellent content. As I said - I learnt to trade smart money concepts soley from him - from his free videos. Which is ridiculous that that kind of content is out there for free!
> 
> Yep, the free version of trading view is all I use. I am thinking about upgrading to 'Pro' which is $14.95 USD per month so I can have some more alerts (you can only place 1 alert with the free version). But, yeah, thats it.
> 
> In all aspects of my trading, I find that less is more.




Great i'll keep watching some. Then are you placing trades using CFDs?

Still short from 27840, very choppy last few hours. cue upside rip..


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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Then are you placing trades using CFDs?



Yep, you're correct.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> cue upside rip..




I wish I could time my trades as good as my forum posts. Five minutes later lol.. stop hunt?


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Yep, the free version of trading view is all I use. I am thinking about upgrading to 'Pro' which is $14.95 USD per month so I can have some more alerts (you can only place 1 alert with the free version). But, yeah, thats it.



I have used it to look at some prices of crypto before, but haven't really thought about it for the Nikkei. The replay feature is nice. I might have a play around with that too


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## Cam019

I just realised my data/chart didn't match yours when you posted the chart with the large up bar. Had to find the right ticker. Think I have it now.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> I just realised my data/chart didn't match yours when you posted the chart with the large up bar. Had to find the right ticker. Think I have it now.




I'm trading the Nikkei mini sorry Dec contract


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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> I'm trading the Nikkei mini sorry Dec contract



Now I can get the right chart!


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## Modest

captain black said:


> How's things Mods? Had to shake the dust off the cowboy boots the last few days, been some nice moves.



Nice I thought I recognised that sound, those spinning boot spurs of yours, welcome back!!


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## Cam019

TradingView ticker: *NK225M1!* (if anyone wants to follow along)

*



*


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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> stop hunt?



It's a liquidity grab. The ranging isn't coincidental.

The 'composite man' is building a range which is putting in points where people think they can either put their stops above and go short or buy stops to go long, or put their stops below to go long or their sell stops to go short - but what retail traders don't realise is, they are right in the middle of all of the 'chop'. They are just looking for any excuse to get into a trade and then BOOM - composite man runs those points to pick up all the liquidity and then move the market to where they want it to go - and retail traders are back on the beginners cycle wondering where they went wrong and looking for a strategy change.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> It's a liquidity grab. The ranging isn't coincidental.
> 
> The 'composite man' is building a range which is putting in points where people think they can either put their stops and go short, or buy stops to go long - but what retail traders don't realise is, is they are right in the middle of all of the 'chop'. They are just looking for any excuse to get in and then BOOM - composite man runs those points to pick up all the liquidity and then move the market to where they want it to go.




Yep, i like that. Cheers

It was one of those things, leave the stop where I had it out of the days range or is price and shoot up straight above the high? Will be interesting what happens in the coming sessions and over the rest of today


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> It's a liquidity grab. The ranging isn't coincidental.
> 
> The 'composite man' is building a range which is putting in points where people think they can either put their stops above and go short or buy stops to go long, or put their stops below to go long or their sell stops to go short - but what retail traders don't realise is, they are right in the middle of all of the 'chop'. They are just looking for any excuse to get into a trade and then BOOM - composite man runs those points to pick up all the liquidity and then move the market to where they want it to go - and retail traders are back on the beginners cycle wondering where they went wrong and looking for a strategy change.




My basic thinking this morning was something along the lines of this.

Where price turned overnight wasn't a significant level I was thinking. After the relative ease that price went through the old support areas and the 850 zone I was looking for a test of this before it headed back down to test the larger timeframe trading range support. If you zoom in on the 850 zone on a smaller timeframe you can see some consolidation there before a quick drop overnight. My thinking was this could be a point of supply inbalance like you have been pointing out. Test this area and then chop its way down to the bottom of the larger timeframe range for another go at heading back up. 

But I guess you can't really predict, just have to play out what happens and have a bit of a plan either way.


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## Cam019

I'm going to be honest because I really want to help.

When I stopped thinking in terms of retail trader support and resistance and these chart patterns like triangles and what not, the way I viewed the markets just completely changed. I literally draw nothing on my charts anymore except some boxes for supply and demand zones and a few horizontal lines to mark targets and invalidation points.

The second thing that really helped me which I have only really started to grasp the astonishing benefits of is market fractility. Just remember if something isn't clear on the timeframe your looking at and you need more data, go lower. If there is too much noise on your chart if you're trying to work out a level, go higher - less bars.

I have only realised recently how crazy it is for people to say 'Oh, I only trade off the 60 minute chart'. Well, what the hell do you do if something is unclear and you need further breakdown... lower timeframe charts of course.

Let me show you an example (sorry for clogging up your thread)

In the chart below if I asked people why did the impulsive down move stop at around 27455, people would say 'Oh, it's because there is support to the left. Nope, wrong.






I'm literally looking at that 60 minute chart thinking I have no clue why it stopped where it did, I can't tell. I need more data. Lower timeframe. 15 minute. Let's go.

Anton explains it much better in his videos than I can explain here but hopefully my chart markup below can offer some guidance.


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## Roller_1

Mate this is some good stuff, thanks for all that! And it does make sense too. I'm going to have to do digests this for a bit and do some study on the charts. More info the better, don't worry about clogging up the thread. 

is that BoS; Break of Structure?

I am definitely guilty of having charts get out of control with lines everywhere, adding to the confusion of everything. Like you said is just all noise. 

Modest posted a good book in his thread a few weeks ago about different timeframe analysis. I'm going to check that out soon, not sure if you have read it? Like he has said a lot, turning points and accumulation and distribution take time to happen, just because it look like it reversed on a dime on the 60 minute chart there is going to be clues on the 1, 3, 5 mn charts.


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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> is that BoS; Break of Structure?




Yep, that's Break of Structure.



Roller_1 said:


> clues on the 1, 3, 5 mn charts




He is right - Wyckoff.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> He is right - Wyckoff



We all like old Richie 

See you next time


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## Cam019




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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


>



It is looking like it could be setting itself up for a another rejection of this area. Similar to what you have Marked on the chart if we see a push up to the 28,000 and a rejection then I'll be looking lower.


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## Cam019

@Roller_1, you're on. Time to watch.


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## Roller_1

@Cam019 price ended up pushing just up through your levels to the upper boundary of this possible larger accumulation. It's looking like price is going  open around the 27900 area. I have that box marked on the chart as a possible turning point, if we head up there but not too sure. What are you eyeing off today?


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> @Cam019 price ended up pushing just up through your levels to the upper boundary of this possible larger accumulation. It's looking like price is going  open around the 27900 area. I have that box marked on the chart as a possible turning point, if we head up there but not too sure. What are you eyeing off today?
> 
> View attachment 133832




This was bit of a speculation type trade after watching some of the content you posted about over the weekend. Maybe there is something in this… Probably not the best idea to take a short above some old support but like I said a bit of a speculative trade. Target is a green line just below todays low, ideally I would have two lots on and take half profits there (if it gets there) because I think it could have a bit more in it than that. Also it probably would have been better to take profits once the opening gap got filled, I've noticed that you often get a reversal at those areas


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> This was bit of a speculation type trade after watching some of the content you posted about over the weekend. Maybe there is something in this… Probably not the best idea to take a short above some old support but like I said a bit of a speculative trade. Target is a green line just below todays low, ideally I would have two lots on and take half profits there (if it gets there) because I think it could have a bit more in it than that. Also it probably would have been better to take profits once the opening gap got filled, I've noticed that you often get a reversal at those areas
> 
> View attachment 133836




I had to leave the office after lunch, so I put my stop at breakeven which got hit fairly quickly.


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## Roller_1

Currently long from an area I had identified before the open of the session. My plan at the start of the day was if we head down look for longs around the box I had identified below current price, tagged it almost perfectly which I was actually surprise at. Or if we headed higher look for shorting opportunities in that upper box around 28,300. My target for this long is 28150-160, but I think it could go higher into that upper blue box where I will look for shorts if they come along for a bigger push down on the higher timeframes.


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## Roller_1

Well that escalated quickly, I had my target set at 28150, like I said I thought It could push higher into this blue area and it shot straight up into it. Left a bit on the table obviously but you get that. Currently short from 28280, I might be a bit early on this one but we'll see what happens. Got a wide stop above the blue area, going to target the days low if it gets down there but I think we could see overall lower prices from this level


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## tech/a

Nice ------ Really Nice.


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## Roller_1

Obviously too early on that initial short, but still holding and it is looking a bit more promising. Not really sure if I should get out at breakeven here, and watch for a  opportunity to get in higher or stand aside if it keeps going…


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## Roller_1

Off it goes, would be nice to have that initial long still


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## tech/a

bit of a telltale at 28210


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## Roller_1

tech/a said:


> bit of a telltale at 28210



 at about 2.05?


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## Roller_1

talk about momentum, when it gets on a run it can go!

Was happy with the trade this morning but looking at the chart now it's pretty sad haha.

always learning. Approaching/entering another area of interest that isn't on this chart but i probably won't trade anymore today.


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## Roller_1

Some areas of interest for today, the blue box below current price and the band above it. I might not be at the computer enough to do too much trading but interesting if price rotates around either of these levels


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## Roller_1

Got the drop just after open and i got in short, didn't quite get to my target area.

Silly fomo trade after i got stopped but realised and exited


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## Roller_1

A few more trades today, I gave a fair bit back on the first one. This was probably a follow-on from yesterday where I didn't let my position ride and missed out on a big profit. The circle area is what I like to call a WTF zone, when i look back at the end of the day and think wtf was i doing. Anyway, just ahead for the session


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## Roller_1

Very choppy so far this morning. Momentum has slowed on this push-up. I wouldn't mind a small push higher to that 900 area before a potential drop. 

Longer term 60 min chart below


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## tech/a

Roller there is a lot I want to point out which will be helpful.

I'm just head deep in Civil stuff so can't devote the time to mark up charts for you with an explanation.
I'll see if I cant get time at night.

Enjoying your journey.


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## Roller_1

tech/a said:


> Roller there is a lot I want to point out which will be helpful.
> 
> I'm just head deep in Civil stuff so can't devote the time to mark up charts for you with an explanation.
> I'll see if I cant get time at night.
> 
> Enjoying your journey.




No worries, thanks Tech


----------



## Roller_1

Very slow day today, I had that area in blue marked up where I was looking for longs and a push-up closer to the 28900 area before a possible bigger rejection. I was a bit too early on the first trade which got stopped out of the lows, but once we have that strong reversal I entered back in with a stop just below that bar. There was a little run up but it wasn't too convincing and i got out at breakeven on the way back down.

I then flipped and when short case we got the big move down I was looking for, still holding that into the close for a little test case haven't held over the close yet.

Target for the short is 28530ish


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Target for the short is 28530ish




I ended up closing the short before I went to bed because I wasn't going to be at the charts on Friday. Which is a pity because it would have been a good trade in the end, if I had left my stop at breakeven I wouldn't have been stopped out overnight and the overnight lows were nearly exactly at my target just slightly lower.

It was good to see when I open the charts today that Friday session lows tagged a zone of interest that I had marked up a few days ago, a good thing about putting charts up on here is that I can look back to what I was thinking a few days ago to. So that's another bonus of documenting on here.



Roller_1 said:


> Very choppy so far this morning. Momentum has slowed on this push-up. I wouldn't mind a small push higher to that 900 area before a potential drop.
> 
> Longer term 60 min chart below
> 
> View attachment 133988


----------



## Roller_1

Some areas of interest for today marked up on the chart. Although I will only be at the screen for the morning so might not do too much trading unless we get around these zones


----------



## Roller_1

I had a couple of goes at this level, stopped out though. See what happens later today


----------



## Roller_1

I left the office after my last post so no more trading. If anyone is interested this is how the session ended up


----------



## Roller_1

An update from the trades from yesterday and today. I ended up opening a short just after the day session close and held overnight. I hadn't done this in ninja trader on the Sim account  and wanted to see if it worked. got a nice drop from the level too, I had targets marked at the blue lines but apparently this doesn't work when you're not connected to live data. So instead of scaling out I got a full move which was nice, as the session just happened to close basically level with my second target.

I was annoyed this morning as I had a level marked on the chart  below the high of the day around 28575, once price pushed up through that I was a bit concerned that we might keep going. So I did get a short on at all. But I can see where went wrong I think so that's okay.

A tsunami alert just after lunch got the price down to an area where I didn't think it would get to today! Hoping price gets back down there and we get some rotation around this level for possibly a larger move up? I had a go at running a short back down from a previous reversal point in the blue box. But once I saw it was a tsunami alert I cancel that.


----------



## Roller_1

Some areas I am eyeing off today. I think if the bottom one or 28100ish doesn't hold them prices could be going a fair bit lower


----------



## Roller_1

today so far, i got fomo'd into a trade early around that first blue box at the first sniff of weakness. Something I need to work on. Currently holding a short from a bit higher up. But I have tightened the stop right up, as I'm not too convinced with it.

I held a trade overnight last night and got my target, was only holding one lot so it couldn't let one got a bit longer.

I thought that price might need a bit more accumulation at the lower zone so that is why I was looking at this area but it was pretty impulsive from their last night and into this morning. See what happens over the rest of the week


----------



## Sean K

Are you doing this at your normal day job?


----------



## Roller_1

Sean K said:


> Are you doing this at your normal day job?



haha luckily that's not a issue,  although when i am at work there is a lot of checking the charts on my phone


----------



## Roller_1

I did a fair bit of flip-flopping in that early mess this morning. There was a lot of volume going through a fairly small area right above/across old resistance. I was looking for long is up towards 29150 but then flipped a few times getting stopped out a few ticks before the drop. Not too many wins today day but I feel like I wasn't rushed too much.

Today I wanted to focus on not rushing into trades, so I thought I would give a bit more time when we approached a previous resistance area and then on first touch it took off!


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> I was looking for longs up towards 29150




We hit 29150 overnight, unfortunately I got stopped out just before the close of the day session so I wasn't involved at all.

I'm not sure if price needs to head higher than that level to test some areas or if we have done what we needed to. If price pushes up to that blue box or that band above it and looks i might try some shorts targeting lower prices..


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> We hit 29150 overnight, unfortunately I got stopped out just before the close of the day session so I wasn't involved at all.
> 
> I'm not sure if price needs to head higher than that level to test some areas or if we have done what we needed to. If price pushes up to that blue box or that band above it and looks i might try some shorts targeting lower prices..
> 
> View attachment 134422





I took an early long targeting the blue box that I had identified befor the session open. Unfortunately we didn't quite get there and it may not have been the best of levels. I then got stuck in the mindset of targeting longs for higher prices and went for a another go when I thought price was setting itself up for a spring back into the range. I think I need to be a bit more fluid in my thinking throughout the session and be mindful of if I need to switch bias. Once price rejected the level of where I tried the second long in a circle it was probably a good option to go short (obvious in hindsight) my last trade was another long but I had a tight stop and was targeting 28600. Unfortunately I was a bit early, even though I thought I was more patient than in the past and just hitting the bid as soon as Price gets to a area interest.


----------



## Roller_1

Some areas marked up for today. the zone above current price in the blue box I will be watching but I don't really want to take shorts there I don't think because there are some other areas above it were price might like to go to. If price breaks back down below the blue line at 28100 I will be more inclined to take shorts looking for a larger drop below yesterday's low.

I got onto a few nice trades yesterday and ended the day in the green. Although I was a bit sloppy overall and was lucky to come out ahead. Working on not getting stuck in a bias and trying to make trades fit what I think is going to happen


----------



## Roller_1

It got the better of me this morning when price rejected that area on the first attempt. I ended up entering sure on a small micro pattern on the one-minute charts but unfortunately was a bit early and got stopped out before a nice drop. I had a tight stop, because of what I said earlier about not being sure if this was going to be the high point.

I was a bit early on the second trade mainly because I had to leave the office and there was some consolidation around this area. I definitely didn't Miss much action not being at the screens later today, just chop sideways. My stop for this short is a few ticks above the high of the day, but price might push-up into the blue area above I think I will let it play out to see what happens.


----------



## peter2

Be aware that you'll see lots of chop and slop as the volume declines into the holidays.


----------



## Roller_1

Thanks Peter. 

I won't be trading much until after the NY so i'll hopefully miss most of it


----------



## Roller_1

Merry Christmas all,

I finished up for the year on Tuesday, I haven't even placed any orders for my short term systems. Having a short break until the New Year. Overall a bit of a tough year for my live trades, although my weekly system wasn't too bad. Short-term mean reversion systems were very choppy.

Thanks anyone that has read and commented so far. See you all in 2022!


----------



## Roller_1

after a big day of selling in yesterday's session overnight price chopped its way up. I'm hoping for a push up to the blue box before another drop but unsure if we will get there. This is really my first day back this year but I have a few other things going on so might not be doing too many trades. 

Happy new year all


----------



## Roller_1

An update from last session.

We never pushed up from the open on Friday and had a pretty heavy drop mid morning. I wasn't really switched on and was doing some poor trades while half doing other things. I should have just not traded it at all. That is the problem with papertrading I've found, sometimes you just catch yourself putting on trades that you wouldn't do on a live account for the hell of it. something I need to work on


----------



## Roller_1

yesterday Was a public holiday yesterday in Japan so no trades. This catches me off guard every time!

I got onto a nice short this morning. I originally had my second target in the blue box down the bottom but I removed it after price was coming down with a lot of momentum. This might turn out to be a larger timeframe demand zone and if we get another test of the 28200 level this could be an area to get long. first target got hit then my stop on the push up.

Red circle was a fat finger trade.


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> yesterday Was a public holiday yesterday in Japan so no trades. This catches me off guard every time!
> 
> I got onto a nice short this morning. I originally had my second target in the blue box down the bottom but I removed it after price was coming down with a lot of momentum. This might turn out to be a larger timeframe demand zone and if we get another test of the 28200 level this could be an area to get long. first target got hit then my stop on the push up.
> 
> Red circle was a fat finger trade.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 135569




Today was a bit of a strange one. My initial plan was correct and had identified a turning point nicely but still just come away with a small profit.  I got a bit nervous on the initial reversal and move my stop too low, getting stopped out in that red circle. This would have stopped me from getting into some silly trades if I held my nerve. Something to learn
I'm trying to cut out the dumb trades but my brain sucks me into them, at the low


----------



## Roller_1

This was a plan from before the session opened. We had a nice accumulation zone forming over the last few days which tagged a area yesterday.

I was also on the lookout for a push down to 350 before a larger move up. 

The orange line could be a area where we get a small reversal. That is my first target before targeting the zone above.


----------



## Roller_1

Update, all moving pretty quick this morning. I have been trying to focus on jumping on the momentum instead of trying to pick reversal points. I'm going to let this second target Play out and leave my stop where it is. 

If we get up to the second target I will be monitoring it for a possible turning point


----------



## Roller_1

We got to my targets and went through the zone, not without the customary dumb trade when we got there


----------



## Roller_1

Overall, not too bad today. Although I left a lot on the table. there was a day  in December with a similar setup to this, following a large accumulation zone I also exited too early and missed a big run up.


----------



## Roller_1

Only two trades today. The second one was only half size because I was waiting for a dip into the blue box to get long but I got a bit edgy when price started rallying away.

a big push down going into the cash close pushed it into the zone and price quickly rallied away. I wouldn't be surprised if we filled that morning gap overnight.


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if we filled that morning gap overnight.




Filled the gap before tumbling down through yesterdays support.

would be nice to get a small rally before the next dump to test the lower levels


----------



## Roller_1

We never got the small rally from the open, a small gap up and then just broke down. Tried to get in short on the pullbacks twice but got stopped out at the high each time, heartbreaking stuff  

I think it's starting to slow and show signs of some accumulation on the way down, will be looking for a push down into that zone below for a possible reversal.


----------



## Roller_1

4 trades and three loses plus one break even. Risk and position sizing was small on them so no real damage done.

After noticing some signs of accumulation in my last post, the last short probably wasn't the best move. I was hoping for a push down before a rally up but obviously that never came. 

It's worth saying, I just put up five minute charts for the overall picture. Most of the trades are taken on the smaller timeframes but taking into consideration the larger TF setups also.


----------



## Modest

What did you see on the HTF to prompt the trades?


----------



## Roller_1

Modest said:


> What did you see on the HTF to prompt the trades?





These trades i was more trying to anticipate where I thought price was going on the HTF. Although we were trading around an area I had identified as somewhere support might show up, I hadn't thought I had seen any signs of it slowing down so I was trying to short the pops on the way down to where I thought we might get a reversal. In the lower zone i circled in red. 

I have noticed though that my best trades have come from waiting until we are in a more obvious position on the higher timeframes instead of trying to type these smaller type trades/setups. in saying that I feel like I'm getting a bit more of a feel for these type of trades and when to take them (even though these were all losers). I think trading with the momentum of the market has helped in the last week or two (small sample size) previously I would have tried to jump in long as soon as price got to a zone without waiting for enough confirmation.

Feel free to add any thoughts


----------



## Modest

Roller_1 said:


> Feel free to add any thoughts



I’ll mark up some charts when I get home tonight. In the interim check out the stockcharts article on Dow theory it’ll help with understanding the concept I’ll touch on tonight


----------



## Roller_1

Modest said:


> I’ll mark up some charts when I get home tonight. In the interim check out the stockcharts article on Dow theory it’ll help with understanding the concept I’ll touch on tonight



Perfect, thanks mod


----------



## Roller_1

Nothing too much exciting happened today.


----------



## Cam019

@Roller_1 - Keep an eye on this level. 

*1-hour*







*4-hour*


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> @Roller_1 - Keep an eye on this level.
> 
> *1-hour*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *4-hour*




yeah mate I'm onto it!

Although I think I was keeping a bit too of a close eye. 

My original plan was not too short until we get back under my level of resistance an retest that for a short entry.

gtg fish on


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> yeah mate I'm onto it!
> 
> Although I think I was keeping a bit too of a close eye.
> 
> My original plan was not too short until we get back under my level of resistance an retest that for a short entry.
> 
> gtg fish on




everything's got a be hectic in the last hour.

Hopefully something like this might give me a chance


----------



## Roller_1

We got a nice retest of the old support /resistance and a chance to get in. Annoyed about my exit though originally I had my target where I exited but once more supply come back in I moved it down to basically where price reversed at an old support line. But once we got to my first target and there was a bit of trading action around there I got nervous and moved it up.

Some people struggle with moving stops and not being able to take losses and turning them into larger ones, this is never been my issue. I'm one of those people that likes to cut winners off early on the fear of giving it all back.


----------



## Roller_1

Just the one trade today so far, was a bit reluctant with the big gap above it but it worked out. Once again got nervous on that bounce and moved my stop down once we came back to my first target. My second target was the blue line just below the current price. Much easier following the trend than fighting it

Reluctant to take shorts above this area because we are sitting in a  important area where we could get a bounce from imo.


----------



## Cam019

5 minute chart. Mod is going to flip! 😂😂


----------



## Roller_1

Was tempted to put A tick chart up with 500 different support lines on it lol

i'll keep these charts 5 min lol


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Reluctant to take shorts above this area because we are sitting in a important area where we could get a bounce from imo.




Definitely no bounce and left a lot on the table.  

\


----------



## Roller_1

Ouch! I had this trade planned out this morning once we opened down lower, was waiting for a push up into the area between those lines but for once I was actually too patient and didn't pull the trigger soon enough. Once we broke that red line I have marked on the chart, I put my sell limit there but it never came back, got within a tick or two I think. oh well, 450 points and counting   . First target would have been the line just above 350


----------



## Roller_1

Old mate holding up support (so far) at the lows this morning


----------



## Roller_1

Only at the desk in the morning but had a couple of chances at the trade i wanted. Hit the Target while i was away, currently my best trade management strategy, set and forget! as you can see being too aggressive with moving the first stop!

Trade was against the Dominant mid term trend but sitting just above daily support so i thought it warranted.


----------



## Cam019

@Roller_1, how's trading going?


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> @Roller_1, how's trading going?



Hi Mate, haven't really been doing much this week after Monday. There was a bit of stuff going on in my life that was getting in the way. Found some time to get to the charts but wasn't really focused and did some silly trades. But very quiet mostly, hopefully get back into it this week.

How Have you been going?


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Hi Mate, haven't really been doing much this week after Monday. There was a bit of stuff going on in my life that was getting in the way. Found some time to get to the charts but wasn't really focused and did some silly trades. But very quiet mostly, hopefully get back into it this week.
> 
> How Have you been going?



Been going good mate. Just working on getting prop funded. I'm about 2.5% up on my account - about 7.5% to go.

Wanna do some analysis for the Mini Nikkei Futs for direction bias for this coming week?


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> 👌Been going good mate. Just working on getting prop funded. I'm about 2.5% up on my account - about 7.5% to go.
> 
> Wanna do some analysis for the Mini Nikkei Futs for direction bias for this coming week?




Nice, what is the go? You have to grow your personal account by 10% to be able to get funded.Then you have a max % loss or Drawdown level?

I'll chuck some charts up soon. 👌


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Nice, what is the go? You have to grow your personal account by 10% to be able to get funded.Then you have a max % loss or Drawdown level?



Yeah, so it's for funding on a $100k account. Currently in evaluation stage. Got to make 10% on the account. Daily and overall DD rules below:


----------



## Roller_1

Do you have to pay like a subscription to get funded? Or anything like that? Or is the risk entirely theirs.

They sound like fair enough parameters though I would think. A fairly generous daily loss amount.


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Do you have to pay like a subscription to get funded? Or anything like that? Or is the risk entirely theirs.
> 
> They sound like fair enough parameters though I would think. A fairly generous daily loss amount.



Yeah, so it's $750 USD to take the evaluation and then once you become profitable, your account resets to $100K and you get 1 withdrawal per month on the profits you make. The firm gets 25% of what you withdraw and you get 75%. The account is in USD and you get paid in USD so the exchange rate for Australian traders is great as long as the AUDUSD remains below or equal to 1.00000.


----------



## Roller_1

A strong downtrend over the last three or four weeks. Dipped down into some long term possible demand where we have got that bounce from the blue box. I think this will be an important area to defend, if price breaks down below this area there is a few hollow bars that might like to be filled in below. Much like most of the futures charts I would imagine.

Weekly Trend: dwn
in a Possible bounce zone?





 Similar on the daily, a few break of structures to the downside. There was a lot of choppy price action that was kind of muddying the waters for me in the last week so I was a bit confused about where we could go. Some areas marked above current price but that is still a fairway off.

Daily Trend: Down



can see the choppy PA a bit better on the four hour chart. Which was taking place on the way down to long-term support, well a area where price had previously reversed (orange line). Part of the reason I was a bit confused this week sitting around a few areas I thought we might get a bounce from but nothing really eventuated until the big drop.

possible area for shorts around the blue box, although it is a bit above current levels and also if we are bouncing off that weekly zoned it might not be ideal?. This has been throwing me a bit the last week while we have been trending down into longer term support.

4hr Trend: Down - Showing signs of turning? Higher low could be in place..




Filled a little overnight gap on the Friday after hours session. And then got a nice bounce.

Trend is still down So I want to be wary of any longs but bouncing off that longer term level, we may have a stronger week than we have had. Would be good to get a push up into that blue box and then I retest of this current area.

Of course this could all be crap and we may blast through that weekly level and trend way down. A lot of negative sentiment around which points to a bounce...

Let me know your thoughts and how far off I am =]


----------



## Cam019

Okay - first and foremost we must understand where we are in structure -  both (candlestick and institutional) on all timeframes. This might be a long post so bear with me.

*Monthly - Trend up*

Cam, what the hell does a monthly chart have to do with trading the 5 minute time frame you might say - everything. All analysis should work top down. We can see here that on the long term monthly chart we are in an up trend. However, intermediary structure on the monthly has shifted bearish. What do we need to look for? We need to look for the last unmitigated down move before the up move that broke structure - marked with the blue box. This would be my longer term bearish target.







*Weekly - Trend down*

We can now refine our monthly demand zone to the down move before the up move on the weekly that has not been mitigated. You can see it marked blue in the weekly chart below. _Take very careful notice that the low of that last down candle liquidated the lows of the 3 prior candles. This is the composite man liquidating all the 'dumb money' that FOMO'd into buys too early before taking price significantly higher._






*Daily - Trend down*

Daily in a down trend as well. Again, we can refine our demand zone which I have done.






*4 hour - Trend down*

We have broken structure and the trend is clearly down here, but we have been chopping sideways. Hard to have a tradeable shorter term bias using this specific timeframe. We need more data. 1 hour chart.






*1 hour - trend down/sideways chop*

This is where things start to get exciting for me. Because the edge that we have in these markets is our understanding of institutional order flow, candlestick structure and where liquidity lies in the markets. _Stanley Druckenmiller once said that 'It's liquidity that moves markets', and I didn't understand this statement for the longest time. However, once I got my head around institutional order flow and where liquidity lies in the markets that the composite man needs to target - my trading just exploded._

So what I see here is a break of structure and then liquidity being created above each of those swing highs ready for the composite man to run. On this timeframe you can see the up move before the down move that has not been mitigated is highlighted in green.






*30 minute*

The purpose of this chart is simply to show the further refinement down to the last up move that I like. I usually only like to refine my supply and demand zones to the 30 or 60 minute charts. Keep in mind that the lower the timeframe you refine down to, the lower the probability that price will trade into it. You can also see that there is an up move above the one I have marked - however the reason I don't use it is because it has been mitigated by the up wicks of the candles in the zone I am using.






*4 minute*

On this 4 minute chart you can see that we broke structure to the upside which was created by the unmitigated down move shown marked in the darker shade of blue - then what happens? Price pulls back into where? The last down move that created the new structural high on this timeframe - why? To mitigate the sell orders used by the composite man to fill their buy orders and take prices significantly higher.

What am I looking for now? The same thing. A structural break to the upside, then a pull back to the last unmitigated down move that initiated the structural break to the upside - marked in the light blue box. Here I would be looking to enter with the expectation that the composite man will then eventually want to run the liquidity points that can be seen on the 30 minute chart into the next supply zone (also on the 30 minute) before we see some kind of Wyckoff distribution schematic to take price significantly lower - where exactly? Well, firstly the structural low on the 30 or 60 minute chart and then eventually to the unmitigated demand zone marked on the daily chart.


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Let me know your thoughts and how far off I am =]



Really great work mate. 

Just remember that if price at all comes into a zone that you have marked as supply or demand - I then consider that mitigated and I don't usually use it. I'm looking for the unmitigated zones. Look for price imbalance below the supply zone or above the demand zone.


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Really great work mate.
> 
> Just remember that if price at all comes into a zone that you have marked as supply or demand - I then consider that mitigated and I don't usually use it. I'm looking for the unmitigated zones. Look for price imbalance below the supply zone or above the demand zone.




With all the choppy PA over the last week or two I have been struggling too see areas that have not been tested or mitigated yet.

Looks like we have some similar views on what's going on so that is good to see for myself.

will be interesting to see what happens when we get up into all these areas where price has had swings. Like you said there is a lot of liquidity lying around these swing high & lows, wouldn't surprise me if we had some strong impulsive moves straight through it all. It is about a 2% range so if it gets on the move it could do it fairly easy.





Similar to what happened on the way down in this old area of choppy price action. Strong impulsive move straight through it all the lows


----------



## Roller_1

I see  tradingview charts are slightly different to mine in ninjatrader especially when you go back and look at prices from older contract periods. 

I'm not sure how tradingview deals with the difference between contracts when they are stitched together, I am pretty sure ninjatrader accommodates to this and adjust them. Will do some digging


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


>



@Roller_1 the lows don't matter.

You needed to look further left. What can you see?

The blow through your lows wasn't random. What is was, was price coming through a manufactured 'retail support' level in order to mitigate a prior unmitigated demand zone.

As @Modest says - it's all in the chart. Nothing is random.


----------



## Roller_1

Good point!


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Okay - first and foremost we must understand where we are in structure -  both (candlestick and institutional) on all timeframes. This might be a long post so bear with me.
> 
> *Monthly - Trend up*
> 
> Cam, what the hell does a monthly chart have to do with trading the 5 minute time frame you might say - everything. All analysis should work top down. We can see here that on the long term monthly chart we are in an up trend. However, intermediary structure on the monthly has shifted bearish. What do we need to look for? We need to look for the last unmitigated down move before the up move that broke structure - marked with the blue box. This would be my longer term bearish target.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Weekly - Trend down*
> 
> We can now refine our monthly demand zone to the down move before the up move on the weekly that has not been mitigated. You can see it marked blue in the weekly chart below. _Take very careful notice that the low of that last down candle liquidated the lows of the 3 prior candles. This is the composite man liquidating all the 'dumb money' that FOMO'd into buys too early before taking price significantly higher._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Daily - Trend down*
> 
> Daily in a down trend as well. Again, we can refine our demand zone which I have done.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *4 hour - Trend down*
> 
> We have broken structure and the trend is clearly down here, but we have been chopping sideways. Hard to have a tradeable shorter term bias using this specific timeframe. We need more data. 1 hour chart.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *1 hour - trend down/sideways chop*
> 
> This is where things start to get exciting for me. Because the edge that we have in these markets is our understanding of institutional order flow, candlestick structure and where liquidity lies in the markets. _Stanley Druckenmiller once said that 'It's liquidity that moves markets', and I didn't understand this statement for the longest time. However, once I got my head around institutional order flow and where liquidity lies in the markets that the composite man needs to target - my trading just exploded._
> 
> So what I see here is a break of structure and then liquidity being created above each of those swing highs ready for the composite man to run. On this timeframe you can see the up move before the down move that has not been mitigated is highlighted in green.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *30 minute*
> 
> The purpose of this chart is simply to show the further refinement down to the last up move that I like. I usually only like to refine my supply and demand zones to the 30 or 60 minute charts. Keep in mind that the lower the timeframe you refine down to, the lower the probability that price will trade into it. You can also see that there is an up move above the one I have marked - however the reason I don't use it is because it has been mitigated by the up wicks of the candles in the zone I am using.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *4 minute*
> 
> On this 4 minute chart you can see that we broke structure to the upside which was created by the unmitigated down move shown marked in the darker shade of blue - then what happens? Price pulls back into where? The last down move that created the new structural high on this timeframe - why? To mitigate the sell orders used by the composite man to fill their buy orders and take prices significantly higher.
> 
> What am I looking for now? The same thing. A structural break to the upside, then a pull back to the last unmitigated down move that initiated the structural break to the upside - marked in the light blue box. Here I would be looking to enter with the expectation that the composite man will then eventually want to run the liquidity points that can be seen on the 30 minute chart into the next supply zone (also on the 30 minute) before we see some kind of Wyckoff distribution schematic to take price significantly lower - where exactly? Well, firstly the structural low on the 30 or 60 minute chart and then eventually to the unmitigated demand zone marked on the daily chart.



We are up in your area Cam. i burnt my self on the way up around that first shaded box trying to fade it. Obviously didn't workout that well. Be interesting how we end up


----------



## Modest

Check your chart today and notice  how the box I circled had turned into support after we cleared it? Happens on every timeframe. Having these levels marked like you have (box) means you have a plan to do something if price is revisited.


----------



## Roller_1

Thanks mod, we did get a nice retest of that level on the pullback.

Big decision point here. I think if this area fails to the hold then we might be having a pull back all the way too the orange line ish. 

I've been doing some dumb stuff the last week, trying to force trades and then seeing price do what I think it's going to.


----------



## Modest

I got a long position in the Nikkei this morning, targeting 27850ish


----------



## Roller_1

Nice one. Did you get in before the session opened in the accumulation area overnight?


----------



## Modest

Yes

Draw your trends, do you see why it became support


----------



## Roller_1

The main thing that stands out for me in that green circle is the push down before the origin of the restart of the rally up.

Another thing that I ssee there is a pivot in that area on the smaller downtrend within the larger up uptrend.

Any tips?

I tried a few times to get short yesterday morning but got burnt my first target was 27,000 but I wasn't on it when we trended down. im never patient enough i'm learning


----------



## Modest

Roller_1 said:


> Any tips?




Yes

Read up on Dow Theory and spend time studying the charts seeing the patterns for yourself.

Good luck!


----------



## Roller_1

Modest said:


> Yes
> 
> Read up on Dow Theory and spend time studying the charts seeing the patterns for yourself.
> 
> Good luck!



Thanksmod


----------



## Roller_1

Thought I would do a bit of a weekly outlook on what I think might happen over the coming week on the Nikkei. It might help align my mind with a bit of a plan for the week. I currently have a terrible addiction to shorting, it's a tough one to shake and cost me this week even though last week I said I was looking for a bounce... Like I said it's terrible  

Last weekend's post I mentioned that I was looking for a bit of a bounce from a weekly demand zone that we dipped into last week.

Longer term weekly trend is still up but over the last 12 months we have been in this larger range. The last three or four months have seen some lower highs being put in place and we are starting to break some more important levels to the downside. 





In the daily chart below. 

I think price might want to go up and test the resistance at old support around 27850. I think either we get a push straight up earlier in the week to test this area, or price pulls back to ol support and then continues higher. I think the second option is still bullish (shortterm) only if that lower level holds (down to 26500)





4hr

4 hour trend is trying its hardest to turn a bit more bullish from the start of the year. Putting in some higher lows on the way up to this longer term resistance area at the orange line. An important hold of the level just below 27,000 at the start of yesterday's morning session which is circled in the blue ring to keep this short term trend heading upwards.

Possibly starting to show signs of slowing up, that longer term daily resistance is the first two blue lines above current price. 





60 min

the 60 min trend is up but the pullbacks are starting to get a bit deeper and a bit less momentum when trying to come into new highs. There was a strong gap down out of that blue box just above current price which has tried to fill a few times still a little bit to go but has basically been done.

a strong open on Monday would give me more confidence that we are going to get to that higher level of resistance, whereas if we start breaking these down side levels then that box between 26500 and 26700 [longer term support] could be in trouble.


----------



## Cam019

@Roller_1 - My thoughts for the week on the Nikkei.


----------



## Roller_1

Looks good @Cam019  We'll see how it plays out. You got any positions on in anything ovr the weekend?

What do those colours on your chart represented?


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Looks good @Cam019  We'll see how it plays out. You got any positions on in anything ovr the weekend?
> 
> What do those colours on your chart represented?



Na mate, not allowed to hold anything over the weekend.

It's a 'no gaps candles' indicator on TradingView. It fills in the space where markets gap with green for gap up and red for gap down.


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Na mate, not allowed to hold anything over the weekend.
> 
> It's a 'no gaps candles' indicator on TradingView. It fills in the space where markets gap with green for gap up and red for gap down.



I thought that was it, but when I looked at my charts they are different. Ninjatrader assure me that I have my charts set up right, so I wonder what the discrepancy is.


----------



## Modest

Nice top down analysis Roller! Pay attention now how price reacts to your daily level you plotted. Change happens in the lower time frame. As price approaches the HTF level you should see momentum start to wane on the LTFs bt forming a distribution pattern/sideways PA.


----------



## Roller_1

Still in this range which we have been in for awhile. Took a  long this morning just after open I was hoping for a push up through that high above current price. 

If price drifts down just below the orange line to around 27350 there might be a chance to get long

I wouldn't mind a impulsive move  either way to clear some of this congestion.


----------



## Roller_1

Will we get liftoff in around 20 minutes after lunch?


----------



## Roller_1

Definitely no lift off - distribution unfolding across old highs?

See what plays out


----------



## Roller_1

Strong run up overnight right into this daily level of interest. Still carrying some pretty strong momentum on the way up, might have a bit more to go yet. 

Will monitor over the course of the morning


----------



## Roller_1

solid drop out of that zone. Not sure if it will be sustained or not. First target is that greenline which is just a recent high that has been overcome. A bit wary of that brown line above it though. I'm gonna let it ride out either way. 

Right off @Modest 850 level he was looking for last week


----------



## Roller_1

A re test of that higher support/resistance area would be nice to see if it will Keep price below it.  

Need to be wary though that price is still in a intermediate term uptrend until some of these larger TF levels are broken down


----------



## Roller_1

A bit of over a grind up in the afternoon. Was good to get a few decent trades on, been struggling lately. So it's good to get a bit of confidence back. 

Intermediate trend is still up although we dumped off some longer term resistance fairly well this morning. if price can't over come that then some lowerr prices might be install over the next week


----------



## Modest

Yeah that Nikkei trade paid nicely


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> A bit of over a grind up in the afternoon. Was good to get a few decent trades on, been struggling lately. So it's good to get a bit of confidence back.
> 
> Intermediate trend is still up although we dumped off some longer term resistance fairly well this morning. if price can't over come that then some lowerr prices might be install over the next week
> 
> View attachment 137316




A nice looking chart. a solid rejection of long term resistance before getting a short-term bounce from a prior high/support. Before continuing down overnight into a possible demand zone.

Public holiday in Japan today, so it's going to be a long weekend. I'm guessing what happens in the US over the next few sessions will dictate where we open.


----------



## Roller_1

It's been a busy few weeks and another one coming up next week. off to Sydney for awhile, so won't be trading next week at all. Thought I would change it up to the candle sticks for a look, don't mind it actually.

Currently short from the red line targeting the green line, finding a bit of support from where price rallied from late into the overnight session though, tight leash on it. Was hoping for a pushup after the open in to the 27500 area for a chance to get short but we never got that.


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> It's been a busy few weeks and another one coming up next week. off to Sydney for awhile, so won't be trading next week at all. Thought I would change it up to the candle sticks for a look, don't mind it actually.
> 
> Currently short from the red line targeting the green line, finding a bit of support from where price rallied from late into the overnight session though, tight leash on it. Was hoping for a pushup after the open in to the 27500 area for a chance to get short but we never got that.
> 
> View attachment 137673




Close but no chocolates on this one. Left the house to run some errands quickly after my stop got hit then come back to this beauty. Reports of some shelling in Ukraine I think. Will be interesting to see what this type of fundamental news has on price. Especially if it turns out to be false


----------



## Roller_1

Wild week in the Markets!

Was long literally a minute before the big rally this morning but bailed thinking it was too aggresive, targeting the zone we hit.


----------



## Modest

You're learning good work


----------



## Roller_1

Modest said:


> View attachment 137730
> 
> 
> You're learning good work



Thanks, slowly starting to get there.


----------



## Roller_1

Not at the charts this week but got quick peek. 

Trading looks so easy when you can't trade lol. But i would like to think i wouldve grabbed a few points from these setups.


----------



## Roller_1

Back from the sunny  wet northern beaches of Sydney this week so should be able to get a few days in at the charts. 

Thought I would do a bit of an outlook for the week

daily trend is still down even though we ended the week with some very impulsive moves to the upside. 




The four hour chart Is still trending down and we are at a important area right here I think. We are at an area where price has dropped away from in the past and have pushed up slightly higher than the previous attempt at rallying up through it. There is no signs of distribution on this chart at all so we need to be wary of that.

If price can break above and hold the 27,000 area or the top of this blue box Then I would be more willing to flip my bias long.  




On the 60 minute we can see some consolidation going on just below this box that has been marked up from the HTF.  Even though the move from the bigger consolidation zone down the bottom has been impulsive we haven't really broke any major swing highs until we got up to this area. That will change though if we get a gap up and some strong moves in the morning, which would give me more confidence on the long side.





The 15 minute chart like I said is fairly impulsive from that accumulation zone down the bottom. I'll be looking for a little bit of consolidation and a fail to rally higher in the morning, if this looks like it is setting up then i will have a short bias down towards those blue lines at 26500 & 26350




although with this Russia and Ukraine business who knows what is going to happen. This is a bit of a plan for the short side if it comes on,  I will have a look to see what I will be looking for to the long side if we get a break above this area now. Although I would probably like a pullback too those areas I have marked on the 15 minute chart before that was to happen. 

If anyone's out there let me know your thoughts


----------



## Roller_1

Definitely no consolidation in the morning with a big gap down at the open. price pushed down to my second target that I had identified yesterday fairly quickly and we got some consolidation around that area. I said I would take a long if we got down and showed some signs of accumulation down there. I was a bit too early on the long and got stopped the on the push down. This should not have happened though as I didn't give it enough room to ride and tried too keep my stop placement too tight. I think it might have said it before but I need to give trades more Room to let them play out either way at this stage of my development i thinl.

My target for this was going to be that yellow line, we didn't quite get up there but I wasn't at the computer when this all went down so there was no chance for getting short for myself. 

A friend come around and I was distracted!


----------



## Modest

Roller are you familiar with the Wyckoff Spring?


----------



## Roller_1

Modest said:


> Roller are you familiar with the Wyckoff Spring?




Yeah mate, I have seen it a fair bit showing up in the charts. Although I haven't been able to capitalise on it very often. I would have to say that it is probably my favourite looking formation. Especially when everything is all nice and symmetrical, doesn't happen very often!

I recall in your journal that you mentioned it also happens in reverse, similar to an upthrust after some distribution.




Just looking at the overnight action, something like this could probably be viewed as a spring too do you think? A push down into some sideways consolidation and a failure to break below before having a decent reversal. Although no follow through. I know it's on the five minute chart tho...


----------



## Roller_1

Modest said:


> Roller are you familiar with the Wyckoff Spring?




Speaking of springs.... 
Looking weak up here now though. Will let it ride still


----------



## Roller_1

i was tempted to flip the long but I have been burned by doing this before. So i let it ride, got stopped out at break even on the last contract on the way back down. If we get a push up into this blue box then I will be watching for a short opportunity.


----------



## Roller_1

I ended up scrapping that short plan once I realised that momentum was slowing on the legs down and we were approaching some longer term support. 

i got in long on the failed breakdown of the swing higher, but did my old trick of having to stop to tight. Getting some consolidation around the current level so will be interesting to say if it wants to continue down or rally into the close.


----------



## Roller_1

The next major turning point in my opinion is going to be the top of the box around 26800.
The plan of attack is
If price pushes up to this and shows sign of distribution, get short targeting the current level around 26675, second target would be the shaded box down around 26550. 
Otherwise if price heads down and retest the level around 26550 an holds, get long targeting 26800. 
The latter would be my preferred play as I think we are trying to shift to more momentum to the long side.

The current 15 minute chart below. You can notice on the left how price is losing momentum on the way down and the drops are getting shorter before it reverses.
A nasty gap down going into the overnight session to take out any stops below the day's low.

Only at the computer for half a day, so I might miss any moves but see what happens


----------



## Cam019

Careful Roller. That looks like liquity to target, to me.

It wouldn't surprise me to see some consolidation around those highs and then it rip straight through.


----------



## Roller_1

Yeah will be interesting how it plays out. That's why I would prefer price to go down before heading up there. It feels like we're in a bit of a decision phase of what way it wants to go, it has been banging on the door of that resistance up higher afew times so if it gets up there that will be vulnerable.


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Careful Roller. That looks like liquity to target, to me.
> 
> It wouldn't surprise me to see some consolidation around those highs and then it rip straight through.



What have you got your eye on today?


----------



## Roller_1

For better or worse I'm in the trade. Price is pressing down around this level a few Times Now so that isn't ideal but let's see where the cards fall.


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> For better or worse I'm in the trade. Price is pressing down around this level a few Times Now so that isn't ideal but let's see where the cards fall.
> 
> View attachment 138510




Was fun while it lasted


----------



## Roller_1

Big gap down today, price is currently trading down in an old gap that was created back in Nov 2020. It was trying to hold above it but couldn't stay out of there. Will be interesting if we get a bounce anywhere in this zone or if it trades down to fill the gap currently down +3%


----------



## Roller_1

Some nice action so far this morning. I got into a nice early long of a long term daily level just before the open. Just had the one contract on against the trend, so I couldn't scale out unfortunately. But was a nice move into 25120

I was eyeing off this level around 25320-300, hoping for a little bit of consolidation around there but we just got a big heavy move into it and a straight reversal.

Not really sure if I want to take a short if we get back up there, will see if we get any rotation around that level otherwise we might be heading up to test the overnight highs eventually and some gaps which are above that.


----------



## Roller_1

Another brutal day for the Nikkei, was looking very rosy in the morning with a strong rally from the open straight into the overhead supply before trending down the whole day. Unfortunately didn't get in at the top level but got a nice move in the morning.

Daily level is marked up in purple below current price, I haven't been trading when we are testing the levels from so far back. So I'm flying a bit blind as to whether they will hold or not be too significant. The level held up this morning so see what happens if we get down there again


----------



## Roller_1

the Nikkei has gone beast mode overnight and into this morning. I was hoping for a fade from the red line down to 24900 but that obviously didn't eventuate. 

Looks like we're going to close the gap that formed a few days ago. Pushed up through a few levels to get to here. 

A few green shoots in my analysis which is encouraging but obviously a lot of mistakes still.


----------



## Roller_1

Kept it very simple this morning.

Aligned myself with the HTF trend.
shorted once we failed to overcome previous resistance
first target was a gap fill from the morning, second target previous resistance.

we are currently in an area I'm watching for some demand to come in, but trending pretty hard this morning.  I think I will be watching from the sidelines for the rest of the day instead of chopping away the morning's winnings lol. 

If it can get back above 24950 things might be looking good for another run up


----------



## Roller_1

Thought I would do another weekly outlook on the Nikkei too see what I think might happen.

The weekly chart is poor looking pretty negative, been trending down now for a long period of time,  with  volatility and the rate of decline ramping up over the last three weeks. Volume has also picked up over the last three weeks which is understandable with things going on in Ukraine. This seems to be some of the highest volatility since March 2020, but volume will also be present when things decide to turn or have a bounce. 

Trend: Down





Daily Trend: Down

the daily chart is very similar, we got a bounce towards the end of the week too close [well almost close] the gap from the start of the week.

If prices are to start turning back to the upside then it would be good to see this low hold  or at least be recovered if it breaks.

No signs of this yet on either of the charts.





4hr
Trend: Down

possibly starting to see some signs of hope here for at another attempt at some higher prices. Initially I was hoping that the yellow line at 24900 would have held during Friday's day session. even though it broke this was recovered before some wild swings overnight. Hopefully this area can hold going into the open on Monday but there have been some big gaps on Mondays the last few weeks so it's a bit of a gamble what way it will go. the actual trading session might be more of a telltale sign then the open or the first few hours at least. Hopefully this area can hold around 24900 and give us high chance at breaking the highs that were made during the week.

When I say hopefully, I don't really care what way it goes but everyone likes higher prices... 

A decent accumulation zone around the purple lines between 24600 and 24400 gave a good run up to close the gap. Unfortunately this happened overnight so I didn't get to trade it. And then got burnt a few times once we got up to the top trying to pick the reversal point. 





The accumulation zone around 24600 has very similar characteristics to one that developed on the five minute chart late on Friday session. The Friday session accumulation zone resulted in a big run up into the close and followed through overnight in US open. Not saying that this is what is going to happen during the week but will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

2hr chart below




5 min


----------



## Roller_1

Been struggling to get a read on things the last couple of days. We have been range bound for a while and there are still some big swings around place but have been getting chopped around a lot. So far my best trades or reads have been when we have a clear directional bias one way or the other, which makes sense but navigating the in between is the challenge.


----------



## Roller_1

I took a good swing overnight on a cfd acct from the turquoise line down the bottom up to 25450. This was a good level, a area with a solid move up previously and had not been tested yet.

If we get a pullback to 25285 and that area holds around that consolidation then I will be looking to get long.


----------



## Roller_1

Hanging in there… Just

The dump down pre-cash open was pretty swift. See what happens if we get a rejection around this 350 area or if we can overcome it


----------



## Roller_1

Heading in the right direction

Target at 25580, nice strong move could be on the cards if these highs hold

Little swing from 360-465 on a retest of support


----------



## Roller_1

A good confidence booster today. Got nearly the whole swing up, bailed at 25555 when we got within one tick of my target at 25580 then pulled back.. A few small little scalp trades in the afternoon.

looking through some material online yesterday and this is looking pretty similar to the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern. The only thing is we are not in an uptrend and have just come off some lows where a small accumulation pattern is down the bottom of the chart.

If this area breaks out overnight a push up towards 26000 would be the first target. Or just below it around the shaded area or 25970.
There is a fed interest rate announcement overnight so that might get things moving either away.

Looks pretty similar to some of the material on the stockcharts.com site


----------



## Roller_1

Momentum to the upside continued overnight and we tagged the 26,000 level before a pullback. Straight through it on the second attempt with a strong rally into the close.

Up into an area of possible supply here but need to keep in mind we are coming off a big accumulation area so might have some steam left in the tank. There is a level at 26185, and another one above it but cautious to the short side here.


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> A good confidence booster today. Got nearly the whole swing up, bailed at 25555 when we got within one tick of my target at 25580 then pulled back.. A few small little scalp trades in the afternoon.
> 
> looking through some material online yesterday and this is looking pretty similar to the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern. The only thing is we are not in an uptrend and have just come off some lows where a small accumulation pattern is down the bottom of the chart.
> 
> If this area breaks out overnight a push up towards 26000 would be the first target. Or just below it around the shaded area or 25970.
> There is a fed interest rate announcement overnight so that might get things moving either away.
> 
> Looks pretty similar to some of the material on the stockcharts.com site
> 
> 
> View attachment 139131
> 
> View attachment 139130




Since that re-accumulation pattern, it has been virtually straight up all week. Not really respecting any of the levels, although we did get a pause at the two major ones. Just enough to suck you into thinking areas some distribution going on… We are at another area of interest up around this 27100-200 level, but the next major daily swing is a little bit higher so it might like to go up to test that area to see what happens.

Public holiday in Tokyo today so just looking over some charts. No trading. 

One of my trend systems on the ASX have kicked back into gear this week. So the run-up might be is nearing its end!


----------



## Roller_1

A few small trades in the morning, got stopped out on a long attempt at the start of the day.

Short here from 27020 but I have a tight leash on it. If it gets up around 27040, will bail and consider flipping long targeting the highs and the gap fill


----------



## Roller_1

A pretty slow day overall. Ended up bailing on the short just below 27,000 on the pullback.

Possibly starting to set up a larger distribution area, the overnight action will paint a bit more of a picture of what may lay ahead over the next week


----------



## Cam019

@Roller_1, step out to the larger timeframes and have a look at what is going on. Current price action on the daily is bullish - however this is in an overall bearish order flow delivery.

The last unmitigated zone on a daily is that highlighted in red. I would be looking to be bullish into this area to either look for:

a) weak to strong hand transfer (distribution) to continue the overall bearish delivery short *OR*
b) re-accumulation to continue higher


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> @Roller_1, step out to the larger timeframes and have a look at what is going on. Current price action on the daily is bullish - however this is in an overall bearish order flow delivery.
> 
> The last unmitigated zone on a daily is that highlighted in red. I would be looking to be bullish into this area to either look for:
> 
> a) weak to strong hand transfer (distribution) to continue the overall bearish delivery short *OR*
> b) re-accumulation to continue higher




Yeah mate, I agree that the intermediate-term trend is up on the daily. But we still havent proved anything in the medium-long term.

I have been trying to trade it both ways (Not super successfully!) . But I have in mind that the trend is up. I just haven't expected it to be this vertical! We haven't really tested any areas on the way up, just brief pauses before heading up again.

In trading view to you need to be careful with the futures charts, I think you need live data to be able to take into consideration contract differences. It is okay on the smaller timeframes when you are looking at the current contract, but when you are looking over multiple contracts there is a difference. In my chart below we are much closer to those daily levels that you have pointed out. Does anyone out there have live futures data in trading view?

I was looking for a bit of a pullback this morning to target 27610 and those areas in the orange lines.


----------



## Roller_1

If you zoom right out on the daily, this general area has been somewhere that has provided some support/resistance over a long period of time, well the area we are approaching anyway. I know you don't use support/resistance too much in your own analysis but I have been trying to still take into consideration these areas while incorporating bits and pieces of other analysis.


----------



## Roller_1

Only traded in the morning because I had to head out the office this afternoon. A few nice longs straight after the opening which was good.

I was looking for something like this in the afternoon session but didn't have a position on. I took a small long in my CFD account





Always nice when you see a plan come together. A few months ago I probably would have just jumped straight on the short on that first failure up, slowly starting to get a better read the action I think.


----------



## Cam019

@Roller - the Nikkei could be offering up a ripper short here. However, you would need to wait for a confirmation (I'd be looking at a 45 minute to an hourly chart to confirm a structural shift to the downside - using a timeframe any lower than this you are going to get too many false entries).

I'd be looking to target at least the liquidity point below. The weekly shows mega downside potential if the short setup presents itself.

*Daily*


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> @Roller - the Nikkei could be offering up a ripper short here. However, you would need to wait for a confirmation (I'd be looking at a 45 minute to an hourly chart to confirm a structural shift to the downside - using a timeframe any lower than this you are going to get too many false entries).
> 
> I'd be looking to target at least the liquidity point below. The weekly shows mega downside potential if the short setup presents itself.
> 
> *Daily*




Die please. That target is just in a random spot for now. We'll see how we go, really need to break this low


----------



## Roller_1

What is the data package for futures is worth on tradingview? Ninjatrader can be a piece of sh it sometimes. The only problem is that I am using IB for my data, and hopefully to eventually trade I don't think trading view supports IB at the moment


----------



## Cam019

Remember the mitigations. I like something like this (target also in random spot)


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Remember the mitigations. I like something like this (target also in random spot)




Yet I am just not convinced that we are going to get back up there with that impulsive move. I took a small long off the lows this morning targeting a move back up but bailed around 27930. It is having a go at it though


----------



## Roller_1

Not convinced this is going to break yet. Watching for another test of 27 800


----------



## Roller_1

Kaboom! We got your mitigation, crashing back down now will be interesting what happens. Was going to bail before my hard stop if we got a five-minute close in that shaded area but straight through it lol


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> What is the data package for futures is worth on tradingview? Ninjatrader can be a piece of sh it sometimes. The only problem is that I am using IB for my data, and hopefully to eventually trade I don't think trading view supports IB at the moment



$14.95 USD per month for the charting package and $1 USD per month for OSE futures data.


----------



## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> $14.95 USD per month for the charting package and $1 USD per month for OSE futures data.



That is reasonable isn't it. Just like the sim on NT. I will look into it.

That trade is shaping up quite good from the push-up.


----------



## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> That trade is shaping up quite good from the push-up.



Broke structure again here - moving well.


----------



## Roller_1

A busy day with a lot of trades for me. Ideally more than I would like. But I dug myself out of a bit of a hole early.

We are still in a larger zone which could produce some distribution on the longer timeframes. This has been discussed above.

I was long around 27700 looking for a rally back up to the opening price. But momentum came to a halt on the way up around the shaded area, with some distribution going on on the small timeframes. A rally back up towards the previous close could still be on the cards but is looking like if it does it will be in the overnight session.

I just got stopped out of a short at breakeven which was targeting 27700 going into the close.

Going to be watching from the sidelines for the rest of the day


----------



## Roller_1

got the push down to 27700, a pity we are going into the close as this could be a good long opportunity around here. We will see what happens at the open of the overnight session.

The close of the cash trading day is in three minutes. Sometimes after that there is a crazy rally/drop over the next 10-15 minutes so will be interesting if we get that


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> got the push down to 27700, a pity we are going into the close as this could be a good long opportunity around here. We will see what happens at the open of the overnight session.




That 27700 level held up quite nicely a couple of times overnight.

I'm still leaning to a possible larger distribution pattern but wary that we could be setting up for another move higher. I'll be looking to get long hopefully this morning targeting the 28150-ish area, any consolidation around this spot I will have a tight leash on and this could provide a possible opportunity to flip short.


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## Roller_1

A bit of an up-and-down day today. A good chance got offered up early to get in long which I was looking for before another push-up. Unfortunately the move didnt last and got stopped out on the pullback. I got a few ticks out of it but that just made up for a couple of false starts earlier in the day. I missed out on the afternoon move, once I realised what was going on I was a bit slow to pull the trigger and did not want to chase price.

I still think price will want to go up in between the blue line and 28150 above that to test this area before a breakdown. But I don't want to try and predict, just one of the things that I'm working on.


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## Roller_1

Just checked the charts to watch it burn through that first level. Very high-volume on the push-up through it. Definitely some liquidity laying around there. I think in the morning we may have a better picture of what the next few days will hold.

If this current level and the level around 28140 fails to hold.  I will be feeling more confident towards the short side over the coming week or so.

Just anticipating possible scenarios, price should tell a clearer picture in the morning.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> ust checked the charts to watch it burn through that first level. Very high-volume on the push-up through it. Definitely some liquidity laying around there. I think in the morning we may have a better picture of what the next few days will hold.
> 
> If this current level and the level around 28140 fails to hold. I will be feeling more confident towards the short side over the coming week or so.
> 
> Just anticipating possible scenarios, price should tell a clearer picture in the morning.




Overnight we got the push-up and some volatile price action above this larger range that has been forming over the last week or so. It is looking like those levels are going to fail to hold and if this overall range can break them lower prices could be on the cards over the coming week as we retrace some of the impulsive action coming up to this level.

I didn't get in at the open but once price was threatening on the upper range early on I got in short at 28135.
A bit annoyed at myself as there was quite a tight setup so I should have stuck to the two contracts I had on initially. But I got a bit spooked and stopped one out at breakeven, oh well.

I have given it a fair bit of room on the way down with my stop by keeping it wide. I was tempted to re-enter at the retest of 28050 but thought better of it. My target for now is 27780 but I will be watching that shaded area as this has proved to be quite strong resistance. 

Also wary that price may want to come back up and retest the 28100 zone so keeping an open mind.


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## Roller_1

That happened quick, change my mind and moved target to 27805 on a high-volume push down. Probably regret it but still (sim) money in the bank


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## Roller_1

That resistance held up for now. It actually went down to a zone I have marked so that was good to see.

Flipped long at 27 820, first target got hit at 875, next one is at 950. Stop is at break even now don't want to give any back.


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## Roller_1

This is a very valid point and something that I need to work on. I am definitely guilty of trying to buy at point A too often. Feel like I am getting better slowly


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## Roller_1

Unfortunately got stopped out on the rest of the position on that pullback. I didn't get back in once a recovered even though the trade was still valid. But I didn't see anything I was looking for. Oh well.

Once again it will be interesting lead from the US overnight, whether this area does break down or continues to hold.

There are a few levels above current price that I am keeping an eye on


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## Roller_1

Looking for a push-up to 940-35 a chance to get in short this morning.


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## Roller_1

I got in but it was short lived, still chugging to the upside


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## Roller_1

I ended up getting a few trades in the afternoon and got back to break even after taking a few losses first up.

We got a nice attempt at overcoming prior resistance at that blue line and then drifted down in the afternoon to fill in some areas from the morning.

Overnight we broke the larger trading range that has formed over the last few weeks, so my focus will be on the short side but keeping an open mind. I'll be looking for a rally up to that first shaded area but I won't be jumping in straight away if we get there.


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## Roller_1

I don't know why but it seems that it is hard to find out what is a proper representation of a daily bar for the Nikkei.

I'm using Ninjatrader, and the default trading hours template is the OSE Nikkei mini which makes sense. But when you chart daily bars using this template it seems to miss Mondays… There is a another template; Default 24/7 I actually got recommended at one stage by Ninjatrader support to use this. The problem with this is is that it resets the daily bar at 12 AM New York time which I don't think is a proper representation of a daily bar for the Nikkei.

It seems as though this is what interactive brokers use as my IB charts match this.

Then to make matters more confusing in trading view it seems as though they reset the daily bar at the end of the day session for the Nikkei. So a new day starts when the overnight session starts. This sounds okay but then you get a bar that gets carried over the weekend.

I am hoping that there is some kind of bug somewhere in my Ninjatrader setup that they can fix the problem with the default OSE Nikkei mini template. I will upload some charts to show the issue.

I created a custom template to see if this solve the issue but this didn't seem to help either with the bars missing Monday.


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## Roller_1

Very quiet day today, no real movement as yet, I was short in the morning targeting those highlighted areas below current price. But with this slow grind up I got stopped out after lunch. Doesn't look like I'll be doing any other trades today.


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## Roller_1

In other news I entered 10 positions on a small ordinaries rotation system this month after the index filter kicked on, and it has taken off. Up around 10% in two days… Don't like the chances of that lasting


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## Roller_1

We have finally broken out of this range we have been for a few weeks.

Currently in a bit of freefall and can't see too much until 27 100-ish.





It could be a nasty few weeks, if we are to retrace this big run up that we had leading into this range, I'm not hundred percent sure how it will work out but with not much resistance on the way up you would think there is not going to be much holding price on the way back down either. As we have seen in the last hour or so


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## Roller_1

I often get confused on days like today when the market is moving quickly in one direction. I find it hard to maximise profit, I am either taking trades off the table too early with using price targets or giving a lot back.

For example at the moment I am short from the red line, I entered with two lots and I took one off at the first green line at an area where I thought was a possibility for a bounce.

I think overall price will want to go down into that shaded area and the blue line just above 27000 but on days when the market is dropping hard you can often get some sharp quick rallies.

And with no obvious place to trail a stop down I wonder what the best course of action is. Because I've already taken some profit off the table do I just put my stop to break even and let the trade play out or move it up to lock in some profits but not too close possibly around 350 area. I don't want to get stopped out on any short-sharp rallies , but you also don't want to give back a lot of profit if these rallies persist (especially when you don't get a lot of big winners).

Anyone have any suggestions


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## tech/a

In a straight down move like that when a low is tested and it turns Id be out.
If the run is quick it will retrace often as quick as it rose.
The first sign of weakness---as they (Div man) says


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## Roller_1

tech/a said:


> In a straight down move like that when a low is tested and it turns Id be out.
> If the run is quick it will retrace often as quick as it rose.
> The first sign of weakness---as they (Div man) says



when you say when a low is tested, do you mean by that intraday low similar to a intraday double bottom or something like that? Or longrerm reversal point?

I have noticed that when you get a sharp move like this, you can get some nasty V shaped reversals


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## tech/a

The low of the move in this timeframe.
27200 out at 27220-250.
Catching most of the move.
Can also swing it if quick taking advantage of those Nasty V bottoms and Tops.
Watch the volume.
Trading 5 min Id be watching 15 min and 3 for Indication. (Well that's what I do on the DAX)


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## Roller_1

tech/a said:


> The low of the move in this timeframe.
> 27200 out at 27220-250.
> Catching most of the move.
> Can also swing it if quick taking advantage of those Nasty V bottoms and Tops.
> Watch the volume.
> Trading 5 min Id be watching 15 min and 3 for Indication. (Well that's what I do on the DAX)




Yeah I am not really trading any timeframe in particular, just posted that for visual purposes. I know what you mean though.

I mean even if I took my profits down there and it still went 200 points lower it is still a good trade, can't be greedy.

I am still holding though, currently retesting the shaded area just below 350. If we start getting closes into the zone then I am bailing .

Thanks


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## Roller_1

We ended up down at the zone around 27100 last night. The momentom is well and truly to the downside now but with some rotation around here it has started to slow.

For myself the high percentage plays will still be to the downside I think but watching some key areas around here


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## Roller_1

*I said this morning to myself that the high percentage plays would be to the downside, once we got a drop hard from the open I just watched it go down for a hour and then tried to force some shorts once we have bottomed out. Not the smartest thing to do…

I think I finally got the daily bars sorted out properly, NT are looking into the issue that I bought up with them but I can get around it by having a 1440 minute chart and a custom template that I made. So now at least I'm confident that a bar starts in the morning and finishes when the overnight session does. To me this is the best representation of a full day. We have dipped down into some daily support so if this holds I would be looking for a bounce back up towards 27 400-ish. Although the bar isn't complete so see what happens. There is some signs of accumulation on the lower timeframe though.


*


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## Roller_1

Don't really know why that is in bold but I'll roll with ^ ^


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## Roller_1

We've had some rotation just above this daily level for a few days now, setting up pretty similar to what the textbooks say… Let's see if it plays out that way..


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## Roller_1

Well we definitely didn't break to the upside, ideally wait for a push-up into the red squiggle for a shorting opportunity. But then we will be above an area that has held up as daily support/resistance in the past... hmmm. So many gaps in the Nikkei compared to when you look at charts of the ES, a bit frustrating but it is what it is. But they can also provide opportunity if you get it right…

Not at the charts all day so it might be a tradeless day. Practicing my patients might not be such a bad thing!


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## Roller_1

Update for the day.

I didn't do any trades today, and it was a pretty rough day for the Nikkei. A few minor reactions of some support levels but no real bounces. Funnily enough though I actually felt that it was a good learning day just watching this morning.


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## Roller_1

Starting to get close to some areas of interest for a short, I thought we were losing momentum and things were looking like it was going to change when we fill that gap but price marched on straight through it.


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## Roller_1

Alright let's see what happens. Price has closed today's session just below that zone, didn't really want to take a position 15 minutes from the close. Hopefully we don't get a big drop when we open into the night session.


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## Roller_1

A nice reaction from the zone after the open of the night session. Drifted down to some old resistance which became support for setting up a little accumulation zone and pushing up. Currently around an area that has proved to be resistance in the past but price is having a go at getting through it.


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## Roller_1

Currently short from 27195, been holding most of the arvo. Closed 1 contract just below BE. areas of interest marked  below current price. Stops at BE now incase it's loading up for another push up and i can't be at the screen all evening.


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## Roller_1

This is a bit of a medium term chart. Price action has been very choppy since Easter, low volume going into Easter and then some weird price action for the next couple of days afterwards. Looks like things are starting to clear out today with some nice moves. 

A very strong rejection of resistance around 27390 this morning. I haven't been getting very good trades lately so it was nice to catch a chunk of this move, may have pulled the pin a bit  early once I saw some momentum slowing up around a low of the day.

Not interested in any longs unless we get down around 26950. I actually thought price might be heading higher than where we got to this morning as there was a fair bit of momentum early, but once priced stalled just below 390 and then touched it with no follow-through it was on.


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## Roller_1

This is the current daily chart. The question is have we just pushed up to this level to retest the breakdown from the distribution area or do we want to keep trying to put in higher prices. The recent swing up to the 390 level hasn't been the most convincing and you could call it an ABC correction quite easily. If that is the case you would expect price to at least test that swing low, I need to keep in mind though that the recent daily bar still has a lot to go before it is complete


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## Roller_1

The overnight action was within yesterday's day session range. Got a reversal where I have marked up on the chart overnight so that is always good to see. Some levels have been marked up on the chart which I will take interest of it we get to them, I don't really want to trade too much inside of this range


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## Roller_1

A big run up in the morning, got a bit of what I thought was distribution going on around that 27 450 area, so I tried a small short there. But had a tight leash, so no damage done. In hindsight this was silly, we were still above at 390 support/resistance that held up yesterday so why would I want to short above there… The worst part was I was actually thinking this at the time, fomo I guess.


Pushed backup to some other resistance that has held up so far. Looking for a drift back towards 450 to close the day.


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## Roller_1

a rough overnight session printed a nasty looking daily bar.

Currently long from 26905 looking for a retrace. took 1 contract off @27015  and going to trail the other. but might be rolling over again. I'd like to give it more room but against the dominant trend. Nearly got stopped out at BE on the second contract..




Daily


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## Roller_1

Some nice moves in the day that @Cam019 will like. 

Got in early at 26905 but unfortunately was too tight with my stop on the was up and got out early but oh well. Looking for a bounce overnight up to the shaded area for a first zone and some others above it. I wasn't at the charts in the afternoon so didn't get to watch any of the action. But just look like a slow grind up all day. There was no real pullback so bit disappointed to get shaken out early

Been using 65, 130 min charts as this gives me even bars on the chart instead of some some shorter ones. Also 390 min charts seem to be good. This gives me a full bar for the day session then 2 even bars over night.


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## Roller_1

We currently have a interesting pattern setting up on the weekly charts. I've seen this pattern play out numerous times on mainly the smaller timeframes and I have have had some success trading on the lower timeframes (five and one minute). I haven't noticed it too much on the longer term charts, anything above daily so it will be interesting what happens over the coming few weeks. It is similar to a head and shoulders pattern just a bit uglier as the neckline gets broken and then the pullback tends to go deeper than the first turning point, obviously I am not the first one to notice it but I call it the long star.

There is usually heavy selling while coming down to a support level followed by a quick rally that normally tries to suck you in thinking that you have missed the turning point. This rally is followed by more heavy selling which normally tags a support level quite nicely, before rallying and breaking the initial high. The impulsive move off of support tends to leave a hollow candle where Price will pull back to before reversing and trending. 

Thought I would put this here for future reference to see if it plays out. 






A recent one from a few weeks ago, this played out on the 390 minute chart (three bars equates to one day). This one is probably more of a traditional head and shoulders pattern. Before trending up to a supply zone





In saying this  we are coming off what looks like a large distribution pattern that lasted for several months so that first leg down might not be all that this run lower has in it.

While looking at the above chart and the daily chart a bit harder, volume definitely increase when we were pushing out of that distribution zone, it seems like people were getting out of their positions quick smart. This did coincide with the invasion of Ukraine so the larger volatility makes sense. The recent strong rally from the lows volume was diminishing as we were getting higher up into the previous range. The last few days as we reversed down volume again picked up and finished at its highest point for a few weeks on Friday.

So while the volume is increasing on the legs down it has not yet been supporting the rallies up, if we do get a turning point in that shaded area of the weekly chart  it would be good to see some volume come in and support the run-up.

So all in all I want to stick to the downside unless we see a decent accumulation/reversal around the area of that prior rally up/shaded box. It is still a fair way down so if indeed that does happen you would expect the coming week to be a negative one.

I need to keep in mind that although this is a rough idea of what I think might happen I need to stick to what the chart is telling me and not take trades according to my bias.


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## Roller_1

What we will be symmetrical triangle break? It has swept the prior lows in the morning and accumulating the liquidity down there and then rallied higher to fill the gap. As per the plan from yesterday I got in short from what look like some distribution, it was a good entry but then bailed out way too quick even though we went down to exactly where I was targeting… Frustrating. Should have been well up for the day but coming out break even after a failed trade in the morning.  

Conventional wisdom says the triangle should break in the way of the trend, but I'm thinking a pullback towards 26860 as first resistance and then up towards 27,000 if it can get through that.


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## Roller_1

I was a bit early looking for the trend change from the symmetrical triangle yesterday. In the end we had a nice accumulation zone and then a run up to the close to close just below the first part of resistance. In the past I have underestimated how far price travels from an accumulation zone like that so I'm not going to assume that we turn it this first part of resistance. We could get a pull back towards 26600-550 before resuming this uptrend. 

I want to focus on my patients today so don't want to be over trading. 
.


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## Roller_1

We got the pullback that I was looking for, I still entered too early when we got down there, I then bailed for a small loss before taking another position when it was looking more likely to reverse. I really need to cut these early trades out. Out now at the red lines. I was annoyed at my second exit as i thought we might b heading back towards the Highs (still might be) but banked the points. Momemtum dropped now but it's over lunch, see what the afternoon brings


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## Roller_1

Once we pushed up into the area where we dropped from in the morning, I was reluctant to short this area because we were above the accumulation zone that we had just tested.

I'm starting to think that we might not have enough gas in the tank to push back up to 27,000, see what happens overnight.

If we get a push up towards 26750 then I will watch price for any signs that wants to turn again. Although I might be better off leaving it as once again will be above the accumulation zone and support around 26700


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## Roller_1

Some having selling overnight., I don't really want to take any longs around here unless we push down to some lower levels. There are some levels marked up the shorts if we push up to that those areas. Once again I want to try and be patient and not get sucked into too many early trades.

The chart is very extended at the moment and it seems like there is a long way in between the levels. Let's see what today brings.


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## Roller_1

Had a go once we got to the first zone marked up stop but once price retrace their I realised that it still had some momentum and cut the trade. 

I did not want to take a trade above the blue line as that was old support, once we break back through that I was looking for a retest but that hasn't come yet. If we push back up to the 250-270 level that I will be looking for a short opportunity


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## Roller_1

I ended up getting in long at 26185 once i notice some accumulation at previous support/resistance, it was a good entry and I planned to run it up to the 250 area and take some off. Once we got up there I did my best trick at doing something stupid and instead of letting some of the position ride and just bailed. I really need to work on my decisions under pressure, even though it is only sim it is strange what messes with your head. Especially because I've been trading systematically for a number of years so I am used to price fluctuations.

I planned to leave some on too see if we could get to the top of that shaded area where price got to in the end so that is frustrating. But I managed to get back in at 26280 on a spring after lunch. 

possible larger  accumulation type head and shoulders pattern has been set up. Looking to trade is up towards 26 400 as the first target and then 525 after that. But once we get towards the end of the day are will probably end up tightening my stop to take some profit. I took one lot off at this area and have the other one a breakeven


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Looking to trade is up towards 26400 as the first target and then 525 after that.




We got the push up and tagged 400 nicely before coming back to old resistance. 26525 is the next level I am watching above as well as 26245 below. Although if we push down to 26245 I am not sure if it is the best place for long trades as we could be resuming the downtrend. I don't put on too many trades in the evening session but if we get around these levels and I will watch for some





Some interesting volume traits over the last three or four bars. The last two red candles were last night's action where price dropped away pretty heavily. Although the volume was a lot lower than the bars leading up to these. The reversal today was on high-volume so something to take note of anyway at the end of the week to see what unfolds. Maybe some of the big boys stepping up today and buying these lower prices.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> 26525 is the next level I am watching




Pric flew up to this level, I got in at 515 targeting 26 400 as the first target. My stops at BE now and price has come within a tick about four times. And since I'm posting this chart I will probably get stoppd out within five minutes


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> My stops at BE now and price has come within a tick about four times. And since I'm posting this chart I will probably get stoppd out within five minutes




I think it was more like 10 minutes 

Looking for higher prices from this level, I'm hoping for a push down towards that red box for a chance to get in long. Hopefully I don't miss the boat. There is a interest rate decision at 12.30pm so that might get things moving, and then a speech at 3.30PM. 

Once again though I don't want to blindly enter if we get down there, see what happens


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Hopefully I don't miss the boat.







Was reluctant to get in when Price was consolidating just above  support as I thought it might like to take intermediate overnight lows just above the red box. Oh well


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## Roller_1

Talk about trend day! Although I didn't get a piece of the action I'm still happy to see that I had the direction right


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> We currently have a interesting pattern setting up on the weekly charts. I've seen this pattern play out numerous times on mainly the smaller timeframes and I have have had some success trading on the lower timeframes (five and one minute). I haven't noticed it too much on the longer term charts, anything above daily so it will be interesting what happens over the coming few weeks. It is similar to a head and shoulders pattern just a bit uglier as the neckline gets broken and then the pullback tends to go deeper than the first turning point, obviously I am not the first one to notice it but I call it the long star.
> 
> There is usually heavy selling while coming down to a support level followed by a quick rally that normally tries to suck you in thinking that you have missed the turning point. This rally is followed by more heavy selling which normally tags a support level quite nicely, before rallying and breaking the initial high. The impulsive move off of support tends to leave a hollow candle where Price will pull back to before reversing and trending.
> 
> Thought I would put this here for future reference to see if it plays out.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 140794
> 
> 
> A recent one from a few weeks ago, this played out on the 390 minute chart (three bars equates to one day). This one is probably more of a traditional head and shoulders pattern. Before trending up to a supply zone
> 
> View attachment 140796
> 
> 
> 
> In saying this  we are coming off what looks like a large distribution pattern that lasted for several months so that first leg down might not be all that this run lower has in it.
> 
> While looking at the above chart and the daily chart a bit harder, volume definitely increase when we were pushing out of that distribution zone, it seems like people were getting out of their positions quick smart. This did coincide with the invasion of Ukraine so the larger volatility makes sense. The recent strong rally from the lows volume was diminishing as we were getting higher up into the previous range. The last few days as we reversed down volume again picked up and finished at its highest point for a few weeks on Friday.
> 
> So while the volume is increasing on the legs down it has not yet been supporting the rallies up, if we do get a turning point in that shaded area of the weekly chart  it would be good to see some volume come in and support the run-up.
> 
> So all in all I want to stick to the downside unless we see a decent accumulation/reversal around the area of that prior rally up/shaded box. It is still a fair way down so if indeed that does happen you would expect the coming week to be a negative one.
> 
> I need to keep in mind that although this is a rough idea of what I think might happen I need to stick to what the chart is telling me and not take trades according to my bias.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 140797




It is a public holiday in Japan today so I'm just doing a bit of a weekly review.

I was looking for price to trade down into this shaded area during this week and then show some signs of accumulation or a reversal. We definitely got the latter in the last few sessions, with some strong volume coming in this week even though it is a shorter week. We also reclaim the level of the larger consolidation which was broke out of a few months ago.




The daily chart is below. I didn't think price would turn so sharply but here we are. Volume in this last week has been the highest for a few months now if price can break that recent high, then the resumption of the larger uptrend might have started. Although all we can do is trade what is on the chart so that is what I need to focus on


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## Roller_1

They seem to have a lot of public holidays in Japan! They had one last Friday and then three in a row this week.

Looks like some more time for reviewing


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## Roller_1

The market has just opened and has gapped down inside this what I thought could have been an accumulation zone before 3 public holidays in a row. I thought we might have got a push-up from this area to close the gap towards 27 200. A lot has gone on in the US over these days with the Fed and other announcements, so might be a volatile day.

In the larger picture I was still leaning towards an upward bias but if this area breaks as well as the low point down the bottom then that might be out of the picture.

Anyway I think I'm going to let this play out for a while to see what way it wants to go. 

I definitely have an issue with over trading so that has been my focus the last while and going forward is to not assume the market is going to do what I think it's going to do and let it play out a bit more before putting on a trade.


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## Roller_1

Practising my patience  worked well today, ironically there was a setup that I would normally take at the low of the day for a long but I didn't want to rush into things so I left it. I still think this was the right move i ended up getting in around 26750 and exited the final contract near the higher the day. 

The me the chart was setting up for a run higher despite what has been going on in the world and the markets so we'll see what happens tonight if that gap gets filled


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## Roller_1

After a big drop in the morning prices have been range bound for most of the afternoon. I did not get a piece of the initial drop but got in short after the first pullback and got most of that move down. Unfortunately got stopped  out of breakeven on the second leg back up near where it turned.

After looking at some of my MAE and MFE stats I decided that if the setup is right I am better off trading three contracts instead of two. This provides a bit more flexibility with profit-taking and leaving one on too run. I'm not really sure if it is the right move yet but between that and trying to be more selective with my entries we'll see what happens.

Only two trades today, probably should have only been one I was a bit too keen in the afternoon trying for a long. Even though  I was eyeing a potential spring setup, I took one in the middle of the range… Patience is a work in progress. We will see if this area holds going into the close, steering clear of it for now


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## Roller_1

There was a couple of trades today that I could have taken but haven't so far.

The first one was just after the open when we tested a shprt term overnight resistance/ turning level. I did not really want to take this short as we have just bounced off longer-term support around 25 950 and with the gap up I thought it might want to run a bit in the morning. I was looking for a push-up to that higher shaded area just above it or the blue line which is longer-term resistance. 

Something I am noticing though is when price is pretty volatile and likes to turn at the first chance it gets if the setup is right.


The next one was the long off of accumulation zone down the bottom of the chart. The reason I hesitated on taking this one is that I thought it might like to go down and test where I had marked up support just below it. It is looking like I had that placed at a incorrect level in hindsight. I marked up on a shorter term chart where I would have got in the long as it was unfolding and would have taken little heat on the trade but oh well. It's a fine line between being to patient and getting into early… I guess the positive I take out is that I saw these trades as they were unfolding and not after-the-fact.

then I did a silly trade of trying to get in short on the retest of 25960ish but being just above that accumulation zone it wasn't the smartest move. Especially when you take a step back and say if I did get in long off that accumulation zone I would still be holding the long, so why would I want to get short here. Probably some kind of subconscious revenge trade..

If price drifts back and wants to test the top of the accumulation zone then this could be a chance for another long. Otherwise if we move up from this area to test the zones just above 26200 i'll be watching for some distribution to unfold.


----------



## Roller_1

Only one other trade for me today. I wait until we got up to that supply zone/ resistancethat I was looking for and just got a short scalp into the close to get back above breakeven for the day.

The only other trade i really see was the retest of that 960 area but that was pretty sure and sharp. I have learned that I don't have too many short-term trade setups so I need to be more selective. Possibly these might come in over time but I just want to try and stick to one thing for now.

Waiting for price to get to predefined levels.


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## Roller_1

Morning all, ideally this morning I am looking for a short targeting the shaded box around yesterday's accumulation zone. Price has stalled around this area so possibly we could be setting up for a another short rally up to some high levels before breaking down again.


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## Roller_1

I got in short at 26210 on a high-volume push-up with no follow-through. I have taken some profits but I still have one contract on. But it looks like there might be some accumulation going on, if we get a push back down to 26080ish I might look for a chance to get long. But this could also rip through my stop at breakeven shortly.


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## Roller_1

Some nice moves last night. Price testing a zone I had marked up above where we ended the session yesterday and then dropping away eventually to close near the zone where I was targeting yesterday morning.

From here it is hard to say whether we will want to push below the accumulation zone to the left of the chart before a possible reversal or if it is going to take off early. If we break below this larger consolidation area down to around 25700 that could be another area where price may like to sping from.

So I am cautiously looking for longs around this area.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> From here it is hard to say whether we will want to push below the accumulation zone to the left of the chart before a possible reversal or if it is going to take off early. If we break below this larger consolidation area down to around 25700 that could be another area where price may like to sping from.
> 
> So I am cautiously looking for longs around this area.




We got a big fat Royal flush straight below the the accumulation area from a few days ago (pink line) I had already put on a long before that so are my stop got hit on the way down. Although I got stopped out I don't think it was a too bad a trade, probably rushed too much but it is what it is.

Once price dropped hard into the zone around 25700 on huge volume (I think there was around 17,000 contracts in one minute) with no follow-through it was looking like capitulation to me. I did not want to get in below the pink line though so waited for price to recover and got in one tick above it once that held.

I bailed on one contract way too early, I think this was due to the early loss and just wanting to make up for that. My initial target for the first contract was the morning high which got broken not long after. I have taken another one off at the high of the current bar. I'm just going to let the last contract ride hoping for a push-up towards 26180-ish. 

My stop is just below 25900, it's hard to know what to do in this situation too lock in profits or just give it some room to move. I'm going for the latter


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## Roller_1

Basically from my last post price just drifted down for the whole day. I ended up getting stopped out around 25890 but still that was a good trade I think. I did not do any more trades to the rest of the day. I may have considered flipping short if we pushed up a bit higher from the high up towards that swing point but probably not because overall I thought we may have pushed above that to where I was targeting in the earlier post.

Where price is now maybe currently testing the spring that set up early in the day but time will tell.


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## Roller_1

I have been away from the charts for a few days but it is good to be back.

Some nice moves on Friday and yesterday also so that is always good to see. Very impulsive move up on Friday, before continuing overnight.  

A gap up yesterday morning to fill an old gap from a few months ago before dropping away hard. 

I'm currently long from the bottom of this accumulation zone looking for a push-up to yesterday's level before retracing once again.




I probably got a bit lucky on the entry as as soon as price hit my limit it just took off, so I could have easily missed it but I'll take it.

Once we went through my first target I moved a stop up for another contract to that level which just got it. So I have my last stop at breakeven, still targeting the shaded box at the top for a area to reverse. Whether or not it gets their time will tell


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## Roller_1

Still holding the last contract but have just moved my stop up 26590. Would be good to see it continue on but if I get stopped out there I will still be happy. Also moved my final target down a fraction after reviewing some previous price action to the left


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## Roller_1

I ended up exiting at the close. It would have been good to hold it into the evening session but it could have easily gapped down too so I'm happy with where it ended up.

The shaded area is still a place for a possible reversal in my opinion, if we get there early into the overnight session then I may monitor for some distribution going on.

But also need to keep in mind that we are coming off a decent size accumulation zone, so it might have some more momentum to the upside left in it once we get up there


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## Roller_1

No reversal from that area overnight and now it is looking like it wants to rip higher. Next stop for this if it does break out from this zone would be 27 200 which is a gap fill. Hoping for a pullback towards 26850 for a chance to get in but I may have missed the boat. It also wouldn't surprise me if this turned out to be a really big day to the upside.

Was a bit too volatile early on to trying get in long, but these things happen


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> It also wouldn't surprise me if this turned out to be a really big day to the upside.




Not looking like that at the minute! I think I let my long bias cloud my judgement, where price turned there was a definite slowing of momentum to the upside and look like there was some distribution going on. I did not really want to get short there because of my thoughts so we may want to go higher. I think this was okay but then I tried to get in long on the first pullback around 26950. 

Which was not the smartest move, as I probably tried to force a trade which I have been good at avoiding lately.


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## Roller_1

We had a big push down overnight with no real bounces at all and carried that momentum into the close.

Before the open I set out a few possible scenarios of what I think may happen. My thoughts were if we want to resume the short term push up from these lower levels then I wanted to see some type of accumulation zone. I did not expect a V shape reversal that would have any long lasting momentum. If we were to get a strong push up from the open then I wanted to look for a chance to get in short targeting lower prices.

It is looking like we are attempting to put in a accumulation zone or a base type situation. I have taken a few small shorts at the top of this range but was a bit too aggressive with my stop. If we get a push down to the lows of the day than I may start looking for longs.


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## Roller_1

Forgot to post the chart yesterday afternoon, we never got the push down I was looking for and I tried to force my narrative on the market again and got caught trying to short around the top of the orange line yesterday before the big run up. I did say that I was looking at that as an accumulation zone so I don't know why I tried to short it… Oh well.

We pushed up overnight to the next area of interest where we stalled at this morning. Once we held the pink line just above 26 450 I got a nice long and exited the last contract at the pink line where price currently is. Overall I think it may push up to 26 800 to 850. But I am happy with where I'm at today so I'm going to leave it.

Yesterday's daily bar was a interesting one. Heavy volume and a fairly narrow spread reversal day. Maybe it will be the catalyst to push through the flag type setup that is currently in, I thought we were going to get that a few days ago but that obviously didn't happen. I try not to pay too much attention to diagonal trendlines but will be a good case study.




Yesterday's daily bar was a interesting one. Heavy volume and a fairly narrow spread reversal day after a outside reversal on fairly low volume.. Maybe it will be the catalyst to push through the flag type setup that is currently in, I thought we were going to get that a few days ago but that obviously didn't happen. I try not to pay too much attention to diagonal trendlines but will be a good case study. Obviously the day still has a long way to go and it could easily reverse this trend overnight


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## Roller_1

Just the one trade so far today, originally I was looking for Longs this morning. The blue line that got rejected early on I was looking for a long around there but we didn't get any consolidation it just took off on the first touch. There are some areas above today's high where I thought it might like to test, but that is looking unlikely at the moment.

One thing I have been working on is not letting my bias cloud my judgement from what price is doing. So I am happy I took that short after the consolidation. Usually I would have still thought that we were going to go long and just left it. I was going to let one contract stay on aiming for the gap fill and pissibly lower levels, but for some reason IB seems to be losing data and then regaining it over and over in the last hour so I just took profits here.

If this area holds, I may be able to get in long but I don't want to do that until after lunch (1pm SA time). 

My consistency has definitely increased lately with me focusing on not over trading and only taking what i think are ideal setups. I always ask myself before entering "if this trade is a loser would I still take it again" if the answer is yes then I enter..


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## Roller_1

I never got long in the end, I wasn't at the computer in the afternoon but still happy with today. I wonder if it will continue on overnight to the upside


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## Roller_1

This is the current daily chart of the Nikkei. I was looking for a long  this morning as I'm viewing this as a large absorption zone that could be getting ready to break out.

Haven't had a chance to get in yet so hopefully we get a pullback.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> This is the current daily chart of the Nikkei. I was looking for a long  this morning as I'm viewing this as a large absorption zone that could be getting ready to break out.
> 
> Haven't had a chance to get in yet so hopefully we get a pullback.
> 
> View attachment 142176




no lift off today..

i was long in the consolidation at the highs and was reluctant to flip short as i was lookng for a push up
to at least the shaded area above price. Obviously had that wrong but that is what stops are for.

Ended up getting short in the afternoon to get some of the losses back


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## Roller_1

A couple  accumulation patterns. Two different time frames two similar patterns. These are similar to what I posted about the other day looking at the daily. Will be interesting if it eventually eventuates


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## Roller_1

I have definitely put together my best month of trading and I have been green every week so far in May. I think a lot of that has been to do with cutting out excessive trades and really just trying to nail the best opportunities each day. But also being okay with if I miss the biggest trade of the day and just taking the lesson instead of trying to chase my tail and over trade. A bit disappointed though as I fell into old habits the last few trading sessions, will be trying my hardest to get back on track next week. 

I am also aware though that due to the randomness of trading you can also get on a lucky winning streak as you can with a losing streak. So I like to see a bit more consistency before I think I am starting to turn the corner. 

--------

A couple of longer term charts below. A few weeks ago I noted that I was looking for price to come down and either consolidate or reverse in this pink box area.

It was looking like we were going to rally out of it a few times, but it looks as though it has formed a nice accumulation pattern which IF we can get a decent break away and a push-up towards the recent high could set the tone for a few weeks towards the upside but there will be a lot of resistance on the way up I would think.


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## Roller_1

A tough morning to get in on the impulsive move up. There was a decent gap up in the morning to fill an old gap which has been a target for a while now, it dropped away pretty hard from there down to an area where I was looking for some consolidation but did not really see anything. Which was okay, but I was expecting a pullback to test the area around there (shaded box) which never came so I missed the big run up. But I did chuck in one silly short while looking for the pullback but that did not work out. 

A small long going up to current levels but I don't want to take any more longs as we are approaching a area where some supply might come into play. 

But with the larger accumulation zones that I think I have identified in earlier posts even taking shorts I don't want to go for any sustained moves.


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## Roller_1

Price has taken off again this morning, I am only at the computer for a short time so probably won't do any trading, the only trade I was looking for was a long from the shaded area below the current bars low but we never quite got down there. If price holds above the 400 level this morning then I can't really see too much in the way up towards 600 which is minor resistance and then the shaded level around 27700. 400 needs to hold though

A bit frustrating that I have been looking for this impulsive move for a while now but haven't been able to take advantage of it but that is okay.


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## Roller_1

A bit of rotation around this area, the 400 level definitely didn't hold on the initial break. A pretty volatile day, no trades for me as I was away for most of it

See what happens overnight in the US after their long weekend


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## Roller_1

Very impulsive move today so far, without me on board! Ouch. I thought that it might like to retrace some more so once we got the initial push up I was short from around 27 700. 

This was obviously a low percentage play in hindsight, strong trend towards the upside so I should not even have been trying shorts.   

A nice little spring below Fridays low before reversing hard off of cash open. Probably could have been the tell tale of what could unfold. Anyway heading up towards the next possible area of supply


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## Roller_1

This is the current daily chart, we're getting close to the top of the recent swing area. Price is also starting to look a bit extended and might be due for a breather. Will be interesting if it wants to push up to the 415 level or pullback before that. May have started setting up a range around the current level. Will know more by the end of today


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## Roller_1

A pretty wild day so far. Similar to yesterday price dipped below an important level while soaking up some liquidity. Initially I got long, and then reversed once or twice chopping myself up. But I finally got one to stick, I took one contract off on the way up and I was looking for a push up towards the blue line or at least that swing level around 065. 

I think the BOJ governor was talking and must have said something that spooked traders and price just dumped away, this blew through my stops on the way down which I had moved to above breakeven.

Once price held that blue line I was viewing this as a test of the spring, so I got long and I am still holding one contract aiming for the blue line. 

After this morning's charades I'm lucky to be in profit, some silly trades.. I need to never look at the reverse button again.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> A pretty wild day so far. Similar to yesterday price dipped below an important level while soaking up some liquidity. Initially I got long, and then reversed once or twice chopping myself up. But I finally got one to stick, I took one contract off on the way up and I was looking for a push up towards the blue line or at least that swing level around 065.
> 
> I think the BOJ governor was talking and must have said something that spooked traders and price just dumped away, this blew through my stops on the way down which I had moved to above breakeven.
> 
> Once price held that blue line I was viewing this as a test of the spring, so I got long and I am still holding one contract aiming for the blue line.
> 
> After this morning's charades I'm lucky to be in profit, some silly trades.. I need to never look at the reverse button again.
> 
> View attachment 142621




I have ended up taking profits at that line and then got short when i thought there was some distribution taking place in a possible supply zone. This ended up being correct and there was a nice swing down from there. Some pretty clean moves today which is nice. If I did not do anything stupid in the morning than it would have been my biggest day so far.

Once I was in profit on that short I set my targets and had to leave for a short while, I literally got the computer less than a minute after my first target was hit at the green line around 28,000. I got pretty aggressive with my stop on the last one once we started to drop away hard but I thought overall it might like to take the lows of the day which was still a way off. But I will definitely take it.


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## Roller_1

A bit of a snooze fest today. Volume has definitely drying up above yesterday's consolidation and there has been minimal movement in the afternoon. Tentatively thinking there could be a reversal not too far away. We are in an area where this would make sense too i think, I still think if price pulls pullback though it would be healthy if we want to continue this uptrend. 

I was in a good short early but ended up getting stopped at breakeven. Then took a loss trying to do similar again. Might be standing aside for the rest of the session.


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## rnr

Roller_1 said:


> A bit of a snooze fest today. Volume has definitely drying up above yesterday's consolidation and there has been minimal movement in the afternoon. Tentatively thinking there could be a reversal not too far away. We are in an area where this would make sense too i think, I still think if price pulls pullback though it would be healthy if we want to continue this uptrend.
> 
> I was in a good short early but ended up getting stopped at breakeven. Then took a loss trying to do similar again. Might be standing aside for the rest of the session.
> 
> View attachment 142665



Hi @Roller_1,

If you don't mind me asking, are you generally trading the 15 minute chart or is it some other timeframe?

Cheers, Rob


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## Roller_1

rnr said:


> Hi @Roller_1,
> 
> If you don't mind me asking, are you generally trading the 15 minute chart or is it some other timeframe?
> 
> Cheers, Rob



Hi @rnr 
I'm using multiple timeframes, using the higher timeframe to try and gauge direction and possible turning points while using this smaller timeframes to find entries. So I'm looking at everything from weekly down


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## Roller_1

I think the lack of volume and movement in the last few days is probably due to the contract rollover which is happening today, looking at past rollovers it looks like volume dries up a bit on the day I think.

Just the one trade today so far a breakeven.


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## Roller_1

I Haven't been trading the last few sessions and wow a strong downward move after a nice delivery into supply. Although i was looking for a shorting opportunity up there i did not expect to wipe away a few weeks gains. Obviously I didn't get a piece of it which was a pity but oh well.


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## Roller_1

I really need to keep this tweet mind when I am in a position, especially against the trend.

I caught a nice long this morning and I took some of the position off on the way up because I knew that it was unlikely to be sustained, but I left the last contract on going for a bit of a glory trade which was unlikely to happen once it reached higher levels that I had already defined. In hindsight I should have taken profits at that target instead of hoping that it would breach it. This was a +4R target but instead let it come back to almost BE. 

Initially in the morning I was looking to short any moves that got up into the area but because I was long going into their I think I let this cloud my judgement.


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## Roller_1

Looks to be building a case for a possible turnaround. not really sure what happened or who said what but we had a 140 point rally in about 3.5 minutes. Was long before that so I took my profits and I'm done for the day, might get some higher prices from here but time will tell


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Looks to be building a case for a possible turnaround. not really sure what happened or who said what but we had a 140 point rally in about 3.5 minutes. Was long before that so I took my profits and I'm done for the day, might get some higher prices from here but time will tell
> 
> View attachment 142873




Got a nice run into the close, obviously hindsight says I should have held but happy with the initial profit. Maybe one day…
If this area holds then the next target I would think is the green line around 26950


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## Roller_1

Still in this range that we were in yesterday, I was reluctant to short this morning around the 550 area as it is looking that we are building  for another push up. That is looking like it would have been the best trade so far for today.

Currently long from this area looking for a push back up to that level, but I don't have much faith in it. 

I have too leave the desk in the afternoon so hopefully we get a run up before then


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## Roller_1

mmmm just realised the FEDs interest rate decision tomorrow (tonight) last time there was a lot of chop leading into that so we might not get a decent move from here until then


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## Roller_1

I was right that we did not get much of a move after the initial morning one yesterday in the lead up to the Fed decision last night or early this morning. This put a bit of a volatility boost into the consolidation area so I am still leaning towards the upside from here but don't want to get chopped around trying to find an entry


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> I was right that we did not get much of a move after the initial morning one yesterday in the lead up to the Fed decision last night or early this morning. This put a bit of a volatility boost into the consolidation area so I am still leaning towards the upside from here but don't want to get chopped around trying to find an entry
> 
> View attachment 142929




We got a break to the upside with a big gap, no chance to get in on that obviously and don't really want to buy with the big gap below it. Waiting for price to get to the area that I had identified as a target from that zone to see how it reacts, hasn't exactly been super impulsive on the way up.

Might get a spike into there before a retracement


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> We got a break to the upside with a big gap, no chance to get in on that obviously and don't really want to buy with the big gap below it. Waiting for price to get to the area that I had identified as a target from that zone to see how it reacts, hasn't exactly been super impulsive on the way up.
> 
> Might get a spike into there before a retracement
> 
> View attachment 142935



didn't quite push up high enough for me to get interested and did not really see any signs of a turnaround before it did turn . If we get down to the breakout area then there might be a chance for a retest for a long trade but that is a fair way away still


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## Roller_1

Now I am really pissed off about missing that short opportunity. Big move to the downside after that gap up. 

I thought that we were trying to slow momentum and there might be a possible turnaround in that green highlighted area but thhat obviously didn't happen so took a loss in there.

I think in the grand scheme of things price needs to find some support around this area if it wants to head higher over the next week or so to retrace some of the impulsive leg down from earlier in the week.

A few weeks ago I was having a good run and I think I mentioned on here that I was doing well in realising if I had missed the big move on the day just being okay with that and not chasing trades. I think I have fallen into the trap of this the last few days, I have missed the initial move and then tried to force my bias which has caused some losses. Need to do some reviewing of what I was doing well and get back to that ASAP.


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## barney

Only drop in occasionally to have a squiz  @Roller_1 , but appreciate the time and effort you put in to detail your thoughts. Well done


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## Roller_1

barney said:


> Only drop in occasionally to have a squiz  @Roller_1 , but appreciate the time and effort you put in to detail your thoughts. Well done



Thanks @barney. Even though I feel like talking to myself sometimes I quite enjoy doing the posts, plus they are good to look over to see what I was thinking at the time. I try not to fall into the social media trap of only posting the good trades lol. Just need to start turning that time and effort into some dollars!!


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## Roller_1

There is still some hope for the upside from here I think. Price closed virtually on the level where you could say that the breakout initiated from so that is a positive it has held for now. the open to the night session could be a good tell-tale


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## Roller_1

Holy ****, look at the spread and Vol on that bar!


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## Roller_1

Area of interest for a possible short is around the 26,000 area where the shaded box is. Very volatile already this morning, I put in a short shortly after open but thought better of it and scratched at breakeven before it dropped away 150 points.. But taking trades before cash open I don't think is the wisest move in this volatility anyway.

I do like this area for a possible long trade if we get a pullback but with everything going on long's don't feel like the right thing to do. But that's what they want you to think.....




Bank of Japan has a interest rate decision at 12:30 PM so that will be some interesting times.

The smart thing to do would be probably not to trade at all leading up to that, see what happens


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## Roller_1

Looks like we're in a bit of a sideways range waiting for the BOJ decision. Do we get a big fake out to the downside  soaking up all the liquidity and then shooting to the upside? Or following the trend with another big dump,  Let's see what happens


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## Roller_1

I did not take any trades leading into the decision, but we got a nice strong breakout from this area and then almost a perfect test of the pink line which was previous support and now acted as resistance. I only used 1/3 of my normal position size as the volatility was still crazy, but  got a nice drop down to the area where we broke from and took profits right down near the low. Probably my biggest trade points wise but obviously not profit wise. Definitely the quickest.

I then got short on the pullback once again, but got stopped out at breakeven while being too aggressive with the stop. Nice drop away after that. oh well. 

Finding support around the current area, but I am stepping out this afternoon. I've had three weeks now of breaking even, so better than losing, hopefully have a good run into the end of the month.


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## Roller_1

Ease of movement is still down today. I am definitely my own worst enemy, I was short at 26135 pre-empting a drop, my stop was above the high of the day but I was too aggressive and tried to minimise my risk to early... Resulting in a small loss.

Luckily I realised this was dumb and re-entered but with smaller size, got a nice drop and a decent profit but I would still be holding if I was in initially with three contracts. I was and looking for a bounce back towards 26,000 for a re-entry short but that has not come yet.

It would not surprise me if price went all the way down to the bottom of this chart where that pink line is eventually, a big daily/weekly level there where there will be a lot of liquidity. There is a Chinese interest rate decision coming up shortly so standing aside for now but that could set something off.

Listening to "trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas it is funny as it points out a lot of the errors that I do. Mainly around trying to minimise "pain" but by not accepting the risk quite often this results in getting stopped out where I should not be. Which in turn leads to more "pain" by seeing the market go in the direction when I should be holding it. 

Currently have it on repeat lol.


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## tech/a

It's a matter of being able to accept risk over a larger number of trades.
This of course is dependent on your trading capital. One way of finding out if 
a looser more realistic stop is beneficial may be to trade smaller contracts at $5 a tick
CFD's or E minis.

Just a thought.


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## Roller_1

tech/a said:


> It's a matter of being able to accept risk over a larger number of trades.
> This of course is dependent on your trading capital. One way of finding out if
> a looser more realistic stop is beneficial may be to trade smaller contracts at $5 a tick
> CFD's or E minis.
> 
> Just a thought.




Thanks tech, the Nikkei mini Has a small tick size of slightly larger than five dollars anyway so it's not even the monetary value, I think it is more me not wanting to hurt my equity curve or something I don't know. And what makes it worse is this is only sim! A think because I set myself a goal to get to a equity level I don't want to take a loss to hurt this. But in fact is doing the opposite. I know this, but getting into my head is another thing

Meanwhile when my systematic systems flick back on I will load up 20 orders no worries and accept a much larger loss than I would on any single trading here.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> It would not surprise me if price went all the way down to the bottom of this chart where that pink line is eventually, a big daily/weekly level there where there will be a lot of liquidity




Mean while... analysis good, execution poor


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## Roller_1

Price failed to hold below the pink line and that gave me a chance to get in long, got a nice run up on the initial push up into the range. But being against the overall trend I took my profits and was waiting for a larger retracement back towards 25550 for another possible long, we never quite got down far enough so I did not do any other trades after this. Price rallied hard into the close so would have been nice to be on it but oh well.

A good day that should have been a lot better in the end.


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## Roller_1

Chopped myself up yesterday so that was frustrating after a good day before that. Hopefully get myself back on track today. Don't really have a clear idea today so might be a morning of watching and gauging what the market wants to do


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## Roller_1

A pretty uneventful day for myself. Do not do too many trades just a few small long ones bouncing off support. I was looking for price to push back up towards 300 for a chance to short but we never got up there so I did not have any real conviction to the long side. Will be interesting what happens here if this support holds or if it wants to break through to test some lower levels


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## Roller_1

Just the one trade today. Got in at 26195 and took 2 off just under 300 then the last off at the highs (fluke) was targeting 26395 but 380 was close enough. 

Looks to me as if we are in a larger accumulation pattern and looking to break towards the upside soon targeting some higher levels. But I am happy with this one trade so if it happens then I'm content with what i captured. A pretty straight line move though so a pullback would not be surprising hence why i took profits.


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## Roller_1

Price continued virtually straight up on Friday into the close. We are getting up towards levels of possible supply which is starting to look like a good place for shorts. There is a few levels of resistance above current price which I will look to lean on if an opportunity presents. I don't think we will sell off heavily from this area though and it might like to go up and test some higher levels. Being a Monday open a gap either way would not be surprising so that may change plans straight away


----------



## Roller_1

I messed today up. Once we sold off from the open there was no chance to get in short so I was waiting to see some accumulation start coming in. I was a bit too early and I did not think that we would get down to the shaded area, I did not have too much faith in this as it was from a smaller timeframe but obviously it push down into it in the end before reversing and trending up to take the highs. This was going to be my target from my trade but unfortunately got stopped out on that final push down.

I was hoping for a deeper test of the spring but that never really came. There was another opportunity to get in long but I chickened out, and then tried to short once we got up higher at a terrible place. Why should I be shorting if we were never even at my target for the initial long… I would still be holding the long if I got in so that does not make sense. dumb.


----------



## Roller_1

Looking for a push-up into this first shaded area for a short opportunity targeting 660


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## Roller_1

Yesterday we blew through that zone that I had marked up and then I went on to make a meal of the rest of the day.

Really just trying to be super patient at the moment as I was getting a bit trigger-happy, falling into old patterns. I did that today as I have not taken any trades, I was looking for price to push down and test the bottom shaded area but prices range bound for most of the day. There was probably only one trade that I could take but I told myself that if we did not get down to the area of interest that I was not going too. Sounds stupid but a small goal that I achieved.

If we can push through and hold the 600 area then I think we might like to go up a bit higher to test some levels. I probably won't be a part of it though either way


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## Roller_1

Been a bit MIA the last week or so, trying to get my head back in the game and minimise mistakes. The last few sessions have been a bit better by minimising over trading and really focusing on the better trades.

Just the one trade today off of the green line this morning looking for a break of the prior high, once we failed to overcome the gap level/high I should have been more aggressive with my final contract stop but let a lot of the profits come back. Oh well decent day.

I am heading away to Cairns in a few weeks so might not be doing as much trading over this month. Hopefully get a good few sessions in before I head off.


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## Roller_1

Just the one trade today which is working out nicely so far. A long off of the blue line this morning, I have taken some off in the shaded area as that is a point of possible reversal, but I am leaving one contract on targeting the green line above it. I actually think if we get up to this point then will probably continue on to the red resistance lines above which is a higher timeframe resistance area. But if we get to the green line I am happy to take profits there. 

A fair bit of background strength so I think we will push through this area.


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## Roller_1

That did not take long. No more trades unless we get up to the red lines around 26900. But I won't be in the office later on today so hopefully before then


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## Roller_1

A good exit by the looks, reports are that the ex Japanese Prime Minister has been shot. This is going to rip back to the upside I reckon


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## Roller_1

Jesus, seems to be right


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## Roller_1

My levels I identified on Friday morning are still in play for a short opportunity if it presents tomorrow. The upside momentum is definitely starting to wane as we get closer to these resistance areas. I'm not sure if we will get a big drop from that level or not though as there has been some accumulation going on on the larger timeframes I think. Been pretty choppy the last few weeks really on the daily chart (see below)


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## Roller_1

Unfortunately priced push-up through the resistance area and then dropped away. I got stopped out in the process of this happening so I missed the run lower. In the afternoon I was looking for a push-up to a resistance area to get in short and got a small run down. Had taken off most of the trade at 1R but left one contract going in case it wants to drop away into the close. But price seems to be finding some support on the previous week's closing price.

Price actually turned on the area where I was targeting for my short if it was to work out as I had planned, so a bit annoying but good to see. Hindsight says I should have traded price up to the resistance line but oh well, there was nothing guaranteed in us getting up there


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## Roller_1

Just the one trade today so far, short from around 26 505 I had identified some resistance around the 520 area, which tagged nicely before selling off.

I have taken two of the three contracts off around this current level, this is a decision point hopefully we can break this pink line. This area has been tested a few times so should be getting weaker but we'll see what happens. 

Distant target is 26185 if we can break some more levels to the downside, there might be some demand sitting in the shaded area so will adjust my stop if we get down there


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## Roller_1

Tightening up my stop as it is an absolute snooze fest today. Not much volume and barely moving. Hopefully this post will be the trigger for a late afternoon dump…


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## Roller_1

Back in the office after a couple weeks up in Cairns to escape the southern winter. An absolute magical part of the world, and will probably be penciling next year's trip in very soon. 

A bit of stuff to catch up on over the next few days and hopefully hit the charts on Monday, kept an eye on things while I was away but did not do any active trading. My systematic systems started to fire up again with my monthly rotation going 100% invested and one weekly position entered this week. So see what happens there.

looking to get back into the groove the next few weeks and build on some momentum I had going into my break. Basically my goal over this year was just too try and learn to read the market and not lose money. I feel like I'm on the right track so hopefully gain some more confidence over the next few months. I am only on sim still but hopefully if I can build that account up enough then I will have enough confidence to go live. My view is if I cannot make money on sim then it is impossible in a live environment, will just cost me money.

I might start to look at the 6A (AUD) contract also while I am waiting for price to move to levels of interest on the Nikkei.

Daily chart of the Nikkei below if anyone is interested


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## InsvestoBoy

Roller_1 said:


> levels of interest on the Nikkei.




Watching this one (TOPIX futs)?


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## Roller_1

I did not know about TOPIX, just looked it up. The Nikkei is looking a bit stronger than that I think will be interesting what happens. We have had a crack at this level a few times so supply should be starting to dry up.

I'm looking at that blue line as a bit of a last defense. In saying that though we don't have much momentum at the moment and have been chopping up towards these levels.

There was a nice long set up this morning but I was not keen to take any trades today, plus I had a more bearish outlook in the morning.

I don't really have too much of an opinion at the moment as you can tell from my each way statements above ha ha. I just try to play the levels that present


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## Roller_1

Watching the red line around 28050 for a shorting opportunity if we push back up there. I had a couple of trades yesterday both losses trying to fight the trend. Need to get back into good habits after my break.

Started watching the AUD contract yesterday. 4 trades 4 winners. Don't you love beginners luck. It is like when you turn 18 and put your first dollar in the pokie machine, basically guaranteed to win and suck you in lol


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## Roller_1

Very slow day today with the market waiting for CPI numbers out of the US it seems. I only tried one short today which got stopped out. Oh well. 

Same on the Aussie dollar very slow and not much movement


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## InsvestoBoy

Roller_1 said:


> Very slow day today with the market waiting for CPI numbers out of the US it seems. I only tried one short today which got stopped out. Oh well.
> 
> Same on the Aussie dollar very slow and not much movement
> 
> View attachment 145187




You should do some testing on the volatility of instruments during Asian hours. I would stick to Asian index futs, if you depend on any form of range expansion to make money you are gonna get chewed up trading FX during Asian hours.


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## Roller_1

InsvestoBoy said:


> You should do some testing on the volatility of instruments during Asian hours. I would stick to Asian index futs, if you depend on any form of range expansion to make money you are gonna get chewed up trading FX during Asian hours.




Will have a look,, thanks. AUD during our market hours seems to be ok. but will investigate. What are you trading?


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## InsvestoBoy

Roller_1 said:


> Will have a look,, thanks. AUD during our market hours seems to be ok. but will investigate.




AUD is probably the best of a bad bunch, due to commodity beta and some movement on that front (CL/etc) when Shanghai opens, but a lot of the time you will find USD quietness just kills the volatility completely. Which TBH is fine if you have some strategies to make money in that environment.



> What are you trading?




Nothing, I'm lazy. Used to do some intraday quant stuff tho.


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## Roller_1

Was a public holiday in Japan yesterday so a quiet day. 

Initially I was unsure this morning of the direction that the day may take, but there was a strong move of the open with a lot of volume to the upside. I got a nice low-risk entry with a tight stop so I thought that there may be enough momentum behind it to push through the resistance. It is always nice when a plan comes together, even if that plan was kind of made up on the fly. Huge volume on the push through these levels, looking for a trend day. I have taken two thirds of the position off just under 28400. 

Lets see where we end up. It would be nice to get up to the pink line around 650, but also watching 550 as a possible resistance area


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## Roller_1

Last Friday did turn out to be a solid trend today, and we have continued on this morning. I got onto a nice trade this morning from the green line, and took it all off once we got to what I think maybe a daily resistance area around 28855. I was tempted to leave one contract on, but sometimes I get caught out looking for a perfect trade instead of a good trade. This trade was still larger than my usual in terms R:R so even if we do continue on I am happy with how it played out.

If price can hold this level then I think we could push up a lot higher, potentially 29150ish. alternatively if we break down from here there could be a nice short opportunity if we retest 845ish.


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> If price can hold this level then I think we could push up a lot higher, potentially 29150ish. alternatively if we break down from here there could be a nice short opportunity if we retest 845ish.





It would have been a nice short but did not get a chance as it unfolded overnight. Bias is still towards the upside but if we get some more rotation around this area than shorting will be looking a bit more appealing. 

My stats show that I'm definitely better at trading the long side, I think that's because I get a bit too keen when I think price is going to drop away. The market moves quickly to the downside when it wants to, and I think I get a bit too eager to try and catch this.


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## Roller_1

Yesterday was very flat besides a few morning moves, I did not really get hold of anything tried a long and a short. For a small loss.

Still focusing on the upside today but getting closer to some resistance areas. Starting to lose a bit of momentum also as we approach, so will be a good test case if we get up there. Also can't be at the desk as much today so if nothing presents in the morning I may be standing aside


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## Roller_1

I do not a chance to take any long positions on the way up to resistance yesterday. Would have been a very nice trade targeting the 150 area but oh well. Once we got up there I had a punt at a short from 120, but had to leave the office so put my stop to break even and just missed my first target on the initial push down. Oh well

Momentum is still towards the upside but I think the odds are starting to lean towards the short side, would be nice to get a retest of the 150 area to see how that reacts.


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## Roller_1

Another pretty flat day. Ended up basically breakeven,  down slightly. Never really got too much going was on to a few trades but held a bit too long and got hit at breakeven, along with a few small losses. Still favouring the downside but we are holding onto support around the 900 area which has been tested multiple times now so the dam wall might be weakening. Was waiting for a push-up to test the 29050 area but obviously that did not happen. Probably get a nice move after hours again


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> Momentum is still towards the upside but I think the odds are starting to lean towards the short side, would be nice to get a retest of the 150 area to see how that reacts.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 145600




I really dropped the ball on Friday by letting the shorter term charts overtake from what the larger timeframes were telling me. On Thursday I said I wanted to look for a retest of the 150 area. By Friday morning we had chopped our way up towards 150. By then the look of the 15 minute chart I thought we were forming a reaccumulation type pattern that I had traded with some success in the past. But the difference was that they had all been either at the start of a run-up or after a decent pullback. So instead of looking for a short around the 150 area I had a go at some longs and let my short term bias take over. 

Although it did not cause too much damage, it was a missed opportunity and a good lesson. Always focus on the larger timeframes first.


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## Roller_1

The last few weeks have been okay for me, pretty much just breaking even. 1.1 steps forward 1 step back lol.  Still feel like I'm slowly making some progress on reading the markets.

Today I have this green line that price bounced off going into Fridays close as the last line of defence. I think if this breaks then prices will go a lot lower.

A big retracement of fridays US news up to 27820ish would be nice


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## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> The last few weeks have been okay for me, pretty much just breaking even. 1.1 steps forward 1 step back lol.  Still feel like I'm slowly making some progress on reading the markets.
> 
> Today I have this green line that price bounced off going into Fridays close as the last line of defence. I think if this breaks then prices will go a lot lower.
> 
> A big retracement of fridays US news up to 27820ish would be nice
> 
> View attachment 146357




yesterday was quiet so no levels had been invalidated. 

Today should have been a great day but I've got back in the habit of micromanaging my trades. I feel like I broke this habit a while back but it seems to be rearing its head again. My levels held up well but obviously exited way too early! I think this stems from giving back profits over the last few days. I find it's a tough balancing act between giving positions enough room and then either locking in some profits or moving stops to break even. Nothing worse than getting positions in profit and then ending up in either nothing or a loss. There was no reason to exit these positions, at the very least I could have just taken one contract off and let the other two ride with my stop at breakeven.

@pavilion103 does someone like yourself who are more experienced have a systematic way of handling open profits? Or is it more around price action and your read on how things are playing out.


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## pavilion103

Roller_1 said:


> yesterday was quiet so no levels had been invalidated.
> 
> Today should have been a great day but I've got back in the habit of micromanaging my trades. I feel like I broke this habit a while back but it seems to be rearing its head again. My levels held up well but obviously exited way too early! I think this stems from giving back profits over the last few days. I find it's a tough balancing act between giving positions enough room and then either locking in some profits or moving stops to break even. Nothing worse than getting positions in profit and then ending up in either nothing or a loss. There was no reason to exit these positions, at the very least I could have just taken one contract off and let the other two ride with my stop at breakeven.
> 
> @pavilion103 does someone like yourself who are more experienced have a systematic way of handling open profits? Or is it more around price action and your read on how things are playing out.
> 
> View attachment 146425



It’s tricky. One of the best things for me is as soon as I enter a trade, having a clear idea about my exit plan.

Some days I will look to exit intraday. Other days to hold overnight, or longer. It depends on the place on the chart.

You really have to look at the risk to reward also. If a trade looks like it’s getting towards a place where the risk to reward is shrinking, then I’m more likely to exit at any signs of potential reversal, or even slowing down.

When a trade has moved 80% towards the target, then it makes less sense to take risk in holding for that extra 20%. But if it’s only 25% towards my target, but already in good profit, I’m more likely to hold onto it because I know what the plan is. I then have no regrets about being stopped out because I followed my plan. 

The only time I have real regrets is when I had a plan in place and then micromanaged my trade and did what I never planned to do.

Risking giving back profit, in the right places, is just an essential component to having big winners.

I actually like to walk away from the screen once things are set and I know that there’s no reason to exit in the next little period of time. I might set alerts on my phone, I’ll come back in a little while, but I find when I’m watching the screen it causes me to make irrational decisions.

On this move down on the FTSE from 7500, I have taken a number of positions. I am still holding positions from the very top. I have also taken positions which I’ve exited intraday, and others which I’ve exited after a day or two. Having multiple positions is really helpful because you can exit some and let other ones run.

I get a bit of a gut feeling with how to do this. When I get a niggling feeling that I should be lifting some profits and that holding onto them is probably gambling, it is wise to exit the positions that I want to. When I feel that I want to take profits out of fear because I have too much open profits, I ask myself is this part of the plan? 

I’m not sure that that is terribly helpful but that’s the way I think things through. One thing you want to avoid is all or nothing approach. Doing this you will both give back lots of profit, and also miss out on lots of potential profit.


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## Roller_1

pavilion103 said:


> It’s tricky. One of the best things for me is as soon as I enter a trade, having a clear idea about my exit plan.
> 
> Some days I will look to exit intraday. Other days to hold overnight, or longer. It depends on the place on the chart.
> 
> You really have to look at the risk to reward also. If a trade looks like it’s getting towards a place where the risk to reward is shrinking, then I’m more likely to exit at any signs of potential reversal, or even slowing down.
> 
> When a trade has moved 80% towards the target, then it makes less sense to take risk in holding for that extra 20%. But if it’s only 25% towards my target, but already in good profit, I’m more likely to hold onto it because I know what the plan is. I then have no regrets about being stopped out because I followed my plan.
> 
> The only time I have real regrets is when I had a plan in place and then micromanaged my trade and did what I never planned to do.
> 
> Risking giving back profit, in the right places, is just an essential component to having big winners.
> 
> I actually like to walk away from the screen once things are set and I know that there’s no reason to exit in the next little period of time. I might set alerts on my phone, I’ll come back in a little while, but I find when I’m watching the screen it causes me to make irrational decisions.
> 
> On this move down on the FTSE from 7500, I have taken a number of positions. I am still holding positions from the very top. I have also taken positions which I’ve exited intraday, and others which I’ve exited after a day or two. Having multiple positions is really helpful because you can exit some and let other ones run.
> 
> I get a bit of a gut feeling with how to do this. When I get a niggling feeling that I should be lifting some profits and that holding onto them is probably gambling, it is wise to exit the positions that I want to. When I feel that I want to take profits out of fear because I have too much open profits, I ask myself is this part of the plan?
> 
> I’m not sure that that is terribly helpful but that’s the way I think things through. One thing you want to avoid is all or nothing approach. Doing this you will both give back lots of profit, and also miss out on lots of potential profit.




Thanks Pav. 

I have found sometimes to that the best thing for me also especially once I get my stop to break even is just to walk away and let the trade play out. Unless things are looking a bit choppy then sometimes it is best just to let things played out.

But like you said if a trade is getting close to a target them the risk/reward gets skewed out of our favour. 

I have found that my analysis is getting better it is just my trade management that is hurting at the moment. Still a long way to go to perfect analysis but self sabotage is definitely hurting my results so far.



pavilion103 said:


> e thing you want to avoid is all or nothing approach. Doing this you will both give back lots of profit, and also miss out on lots of potential profit.




Okay thanks, a few things to work on! I will try and put these into practice. 

Have to avoid micromanaging trades while also locking in enough profit


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## pavilion103

Roller_1 said:


> Thanks Pav.
> 
> I have found sometimes to that the best thing for me also especially once I get my stop to break even is just to walk away and let the trade play out. Unless things are looking a bit choppy then sometimes it is best just to let things played out.
> 
> But like you said if a trade is getting close to a target them the risk/reward gets skewed out of our favour.
> 
> I have found that my analysis is getting better it is just my trade management that is hurting at the moment. Still a long way to go to perfect analysis but self sabotage is definitely hurting my results so far.
> 
> 
> 
> Okay thanks, a few things to work on! I will try and put these into practice.
> 
> Have to avoid micromanaging trades while also locking in enough profit



Just make sure you learn from every mistake.
You might lose some dollars but you’ll gain much more in lessons in the long run!


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## Roller_1

pavilion103 said:


> Just make sure you learn from every mistake.
> You might lose some dollars but you’ll gain much more in lessons in the long run!



Did/do you (or anyone else?) ever use any commercial journaling tools. There seems to be some good products out there but not sure if it'll be worth it. I've been doing my own but not as flash as commercial ones. They would give a deeper insight into stats i guess.


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## pavilion103

Roller_1 said:


> Did/do you (or anyone else?) ever use any commercial journaling tools. There seems to be some good products out there but not sure if it'll be worth it. I've been doing my own but not as flash as commercial ones. They would give a deeper insight into stats i guess.



I created a basic excel spreadsheet.
I think it gives me enough.


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## Roller_1

Contract rollover today on the Nikkei. It confuses me every time. Usually takes me a few days to get my bearings again.


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## Roller_1

i'm still here grinding away

Watching 27400 for longs


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## Roller_1

We ended up opening down below it. I thought that we were going to push up back through and tried to buy the breakout but obviously that did not work out. Wasn't fluid enough in my thinking to flip bias. Very choppy day


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## Roller_1

It was a public holiday in Japan on Monday so no market action.

Because of the public holiday we had a big gap up which pushed up into a supply area from the open, this allowed me to get in a nice short position following the overall trend. I had to leave the computer and had my target in a place where I thought some support may come in but we blasted through through that. So I could have got a bit more out of the trade but definitely not complaining! 

I was tempted to leave one contract on with a stop at breakeven to see if we wanted to continue down but I didn't do it in the end. This may be something I look at in the future when we are moving like this. Really getting hold of those outsized winners will skew the results nicely. 

This morning I was looking for a break to new recent lows. Unfortunately I got stopped out as it pushed back up into the range by a tick before the big dump!

If we get a spike back up into the range I may consider shorts but recently we have just had a morning move and then not much has happened in the afternoon. Especially with some news coming out in the US and the BOJ interest rate decision tomorrow, I actually thought it was just going to be a range day once I got stopped out as we were just chopping around. I think the BOJ announced a bond buy up which may have been the trigger.






I don't really see too much support below this area until around 26860. So if we can't reclaim these recent levels that we have broke it might be down for the remainder of the week


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## Roller_1

Some big moves overnight with some chitchat out of the US. We are down around that support level that I was looking at yesterday which may offer a chance for some longs if we can reclaim it early on. Not really that keen to short after such an impulsive move down overnight

Around 12:30 PM SA time there is a BOJ interest rate decisions so that will get things going no doubt.


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## Roller_1

I just thought I would post this here for my future reference and any commentary from anyone else. I'm seeing some accumulation going on on the smaller timeframe charts, well what I think is accumulation.

After the big push down overnight, there would probably need to be some kind of absorption going on to reverse this trend. On each push down you can see the high-volume bars, this is where I think the big boys are sucking up the breakout traders who are looking for lower prices. In order for them to build their position they would need to push the price down to be able to get the liquidity.

I've also noticed on a few occasions that this tends to happen under support that I have marked up, not sure if that means I have the support marked up wrong or possibly other people are watching these levels and accumulation is going on while the price may seem weak.
Anyhow, this could all be wrong and price may dump straight-back through but interested to hear others thoughts.


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## Roller_1

Price pushed back down not long after my initial post, but this looks like it wants to rip higher now. The BOJ announcement is due in 20 minutes. So just watching. Anything could happen

Got sucked into taking way too many pre-emptive trades early, so might not do any more trades today


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## Roller_1

How the day ended up for anyone following along.

If I fire off too many blanks early in the day then I lose the mental capital/resilience to be able to pull the trigger when needed. Something I need to work on


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## Roller_1

Focus should still be on the downside I think, I would like to see how price reacts around the blue line below current levels to see if it can be defended.

Otherwise a push up to around 27,000 will be a area to watch. 

Don't really have a clear picture at the moment, just a few areas of interest


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## Roller_1

I haven't been able to trade consistently for a few weeks due to health reasons. Hopefully I can get some consistency at the charts over the next few weeks and try and get back into the swing of things. Might not have been a bad time to have a break anyway because I was in a bit of a rut, hopefully stepping away for a while will help clear my head


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## Roller_1

This is the current daily chart of the Nikkei. We are currently right in the middle of some resistance that has held up a few times over the last few months, while also acting as support previously.

I thought that we might push through this area on high-volume in the morning so I've been in a long for most of the day. But chopping around a little bit. In the past when we are broke through here there has been decent follow-through one way or the other. If we do get up through here then I think it my head all the way up to 27900. Which is around the green line. Maybe over the course of this week. But need to get up through here first.


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## Roller_1

I have really just been treading water or even going slightly backwards in my equity curve the last few months so I really need to knuckle down. My winning days so far are not much larger than my losing days. 

When I enter I try to risk between 8 to 10 points, so they are pretty tight entries. I don't allow myself to have more than three full losses in a day. 

The issue is when I do get onto a good trade, I rarely make more than 30 points. If I do get a good trade and I take profits at a place where I think the trend may reverse I am reluctant to either a) enter in the opposite direction or b) re-enter in the same direction. This is because I do not want to ruin a good day. I know that this is not right but it seems like the lesser of two evils with a low strike rate. So generally if I am trading in the correct direction I am only getting one good trade for the day. What this means is that my wins and losses end up about the same. Which obviously doesn't equate to a nice equity curve, especially if my win rate is not very high.

So I need to work out the best way to combat this. I guess there are a few options. Do I only give myself two trades, if I have two losses in a row just don't trade for the rest of the day. My thinking behind this is my best days I generally only have one trade, which is where I get onto a decent trade take profits at maybe around the 30 point mark and be satisfied with that.
This might help with a few issues, force me to be more selective while also limiting my losing days dollar wise. Sometimes I can be a bit impulsive and enter trades with no real setup.

Or I could try and improve my win rate by going for small wins points wise. Instead of letting trades get to 15 points and then get stopped out at breakeven or a loss just go for trades at say a 2-to-1 ratio. I might do some digging into the MFE stats on NT to see if this will help. Most of the time if I have a loss they are pretty quick. So this will not help in that situation.

or I go for outsized wins. Once price gets to say 2R move stop To breakeven and set a target in a logical spot more than 5R away.

Interested to hear thoughts from others on how to combat these issues

The screenshot below is just a basic Excel sheet of a good way to track your mistakes, I just highlight the cells if I feel like I have done well or messed up in a certain area. Obviously you can see in this subset that impulsive trades are an issue. I am getting better at rectifying this.


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## KevinBB

Hello @Roller_1 

I'm not here to give advice, because my advice is quite often as good as my trading ability, and that's not very good. See numerous posts throughout this place, including this one. However, there are ways to fix the type of problems you are having.

I fixed most of my trading problems by going 100% systematic. All trades placed in my futures accounts are now placed automatically. Yes, it took time (many months) to set up the software, but in the long run it was a perfect solution for me. I no longer make any mistakes! If there are any mistakes, it is always a programming error.

There is a lot of literature on positive and negative skew systems (positive: lots of small losses, covered by fewer bigger wins) that make very good reading. There is also plenty of writing on systematic trading. Apart from the fact that I wanted to trade 24 hours, those two factors drove my systems design.

So, the first thing I had to do was to get my system written down, so that I knew what I was supposed to be doing, then made it work in spreadsheets that were making all the decisions, and then eventually transferred those spreadsheets to other software.

The system has been live about 18 months now, and still profitable (thank heavens).

KH


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## Roller_1

KevinBB said:


> Hello @Roller_1
> 
> I'm not here to give advice, because my advice is quite often as good as my trading ability, and that's not very good. See numerous posts throughout this place, including this one. However, there are ways to fix the type of problems you are having.
> 
> I fixed most of my trading problems by going 100% systematic. All trades placed in my futures accounts are now placed automatically. Yes, it took time (many months) to set up the software, but in the long run it was a perfect solution for me. I no longer make any mistakes! If there are any mistakes, it is always a programming error.
> 
> There is a lot of literature on positive and negative skew systems (positive: lots of small losses, covered by fewer bigger wins) that make very good reading. There is also plenty of writing on systematic trading. Apart from the fact that I wanted to trade 24 hours, those two factors drove my systems design.
> 
> So, the first thing I had to do was to get my system written down, so that I knew what I was supposed to be doing, then made it work in spreadsheets that were making all the decisions, and then eventually transferred those spreadsheets to other software.
> 
> The system has been live about 18 months now, and still profitable (thank heavens).
> 
> KH




Thanks Kevin,
I do currently run systematic systems. They are only on stocks though. I  was looking to get into futures discretionary as a way of diversification I guess. It is also a itch that I have to scratch to see if I could make it work. I am definitely getting better at reading the markets, just trying to piece all the bits together is the tough part as we all know!

 I can feel myself slowly getting sucked towards the systematic space though ha ha. I also have the charts running in Amibroker, and have done some basic scripts but nothing that will guide any decisions yet.

Out of interest what markets and timeframes are you trading?


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## KevinBB

@Roller_1 The system works on one bar of data each day, but that bar is continually updated throughout the trading day. Hence the need to systematise, because I really didn't want to stay up all night losing beauty sleep.

There are 19 instruments, mainly US mini and micro, in the portfolio, of which 15 are small enough for me to trade. List in this post. Add mini wheat and micro crude to that list. I am still looking for others, and have micro DAX, KOSDQ150, the micro interest rates, and Bloomberg Commodity (AIGCI) in a test account.

It is important to me to trade within risk limits, so I stick rigidly to the smaller instruments. Currently have 14 open positions.

KH


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## Roller_1

Thanks @KevinBB I just had a read over the thread. Nice work by the way. Do you have a background in programming? Or just got stuck into it!
I have briefly looked at python a few times and can see the power in it. What ide do you use to code your systems in out of interest, I have pycharm but I don't think it is the best environment for trading systems. 

Have you looked at the Nikkei? Tick sizes are fairly small dollar wise so it might be worth looking into. Around $5.5, ¥500


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## KevinBB

@Roller_1 I started off by doing everything in a spreadsheet, using CFDs instead of futures contracts. The spreadsheet told me what trades to place. I just did what I was told.

However, I needed to systematise because of the odd hours, so set about learning Python. Yes, I have a background in programming, but my profession was as an accountant. It still took a long time to learn Python. It was a not-so-simple matter of converting spreadsheets to Python.

Incidently, I use PyCharm to create all my code. I find it very good because it will pick up errors in code (typos, not logic), even in related functions. It is also very good for testing, and stepping through code to find mistakes.

For trading I simply copy the Python files created by PyCharm to the trading computer, and then run the files via the standard terminal interface.

As far as the Nikkei goes, I've just started on KRW and EUR instruments after trading the US instruments for 15 or so months. That's enough for my limited capital for now.

KH


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## peter2

My suggestion for you @Roller_1 is to make your discretionary trading more structured. Define the types of setups you have, define the structure for each setup. If a setup shows that it needs a 15 point SL don't cramp it by using 8 - 10 pts. Define every trade risk and if a setup has too much risk then it's OK to pass on it. 

You seem to like working from price levels. Levels are zones that define potential support or resistance. You've got to have at least four setups, support holds/fails, resistance holds/fails. If price is approaching a support zone, what do you need to see that indicates price has been supported and is ready to go higher (reversal off zone)?  What do you need to see if the support zone fails and price may go much lower (trend continuation, break down)? 

Price may not form one of your setups and you miss the trading opp. That's OK. As you gain experience you will recognise variations to your setups and you can be more adaptable. Until you're consistently profitable you don't have the license to be adaptable. Start with a small playbook that provides enough opportunities each day.  

IMO each trader will develop a preference for systematic or discretionary trading styles. I think it would be very hard to be good at both.


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## Roller_1

peter2 said:


> My suggestion for you @Roller_1 is to make your discretionary trading more structured. Define the types of setups you have, define the structure for each setup. If a setup shows that it needs a 15 point SL don't cramp it by using 8 - 10 pts. Define every trade risk and if a setup has too much risk then it's OK to pass on it.
> 
> You seem to like working from price levels. Levels are zones that define potential support or resistance. You've got to have at least four setups, support holds/fails, resistance holds/fails. If price is approaching a support zone, what do you need to see that indicates price has been supported and is ready to go higher (reversal off zone)?  What do you need to see if the support zone fails and price may go much lower (trend continuation, break down)?
> 
> Price may not form one of your setups and you miss the trading opp. That's OK. As you gain experience you will recognise variations to your setups and you can be more adaptable. Until you're consistently profitable you don't have the license to be adaptable. Start with a small playbook that provides enough opportunities each day.
> 
> IMO each trader will develop a preference for systematic or discretionary trading styles. I think it would be very hard to be good at both.




Thanks a lot Peter, and totally agree with everything here. The thing that I have found challenging coming from a more systematic style is defining a actual setup. It's all well and good to have a resistance area or support zone, but then once price gets there actually defining a setup I find the hard part, I often find myself getting FOMO and then wasting trades. Then when you sit in your hands the actual trade happens that you have been waiting for. 

This is an area that I need to focus on, identifying the setup. I have an idea in each of these so now my job is to define this into a repeatable pattern.

Thanks for that.


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## Roller_1

A couple of levels of interest, trend is largely flat over the last few days but I am leaning towards the short side


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## Roller_1

*Got a pop off the interim support, I am short from around 955, first target is the green line below, with the longer target at the bottom of the chart if we get some momentum up.

I have taken one contract off here as there was some volume coming in without the follow-through.


*


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## Roller_1

Unfortunately I got stopped out on the high of the day! I had my stop to ticks above the previous high but unfortunately it got hit. Just watching from now. 

downside target is 26810


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## Roller_1

Price ended up making its way down to my target in the evening session. Found support down there and then pushed up to the orange line that I was watching on Friday. This is still an important level I think but it is looking like we're going to gap up towards 27,300. The ES had an impulsive move up this morning but is drifting back down now so I might have to wait a little bit to see what way it wants to go


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## Roller_1

The level around 300 held up well a couple of times. Although I was not convinced in the downside up there so I didn't really have conviction. I was short from around where the arrow is pointing, but I still managed to have a losing day… Very very sloppy. I have been good the last few weeks but had a bit of a blowout today, as long as I don't make a habit of it I guess. 

The orange line is still in play if price pushes back up there, will be interesting how it reacts once it gets up there


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## Roller_1

Looking to see how price reacts once we get up around the orange/shaded area. Not really too interested in long positions until we start pushing up again on the higher timeframes. BOJ announcement in two hours time so if I do put on any trades they'll just be short-term I think


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## Roller_1

I've had a better run the last week or so since I've just been focusing on the higher timeframe setups. Sometimes it is easy to get sucked into the lower timeframe charts. But I just need to remind myself to try and see what the bigger picture is telling me


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## Roller_1

No trades yet, fairly impulsive move up leading into the announcement. See what happens within the hour


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## Roller_1

Ended up getting a decent drop from that level into the close of Fridays cash session. Very impulsive move up in the overnight US session. Which is making things look more positive for the next week. Unfortunately I won't be at the charts much this week as other things are getting in the way, hopefully get a few days in towards the end.


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## Roller_1

I haven't posted here for a while I have just been focused on the charts. But can we just take a second to appreciate this move! Holy heck, I was hoping for a small push up on the interest rate decision for a chance to get in short but wow. 

ES copping it too. Good stop raid!


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