# KCN - Kingsgate Consolidated



## UMike (30 January 2007)

From $4.24 on the 8/1/07 to $3.47 yesterday, back to a close of $3.90 today

Anyone got some good info on this unpredictable stock?


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## speves (30 January 2007)

Wish I could help Umike this one is puzzling.  The SP has been falling steadily at the lack of response from the Thai "Governments" granting the Chatree North Lease which is kinda critical to KCNs future.

I can't figure out what has sparked todays rise. At these prices (even with todays rise) KCN is undervalued, but few investors seem willing to buy in until the Chatre North lease is secured which is understandable...Once granted, the SP will likely head straight back to around the $5 mark fairly quickly.

Todays unusual price rise may be an indication of speculation on the granting of that lease??......... from my research it would appear that although approval of the Environmental Impact Statement is expected soon, leases are still a way off.


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## theasxgorilla (30 January 2007)

Boardroom radio interview with the CEO...

http://www.acnnewswire.net/press/en/34929/Boardroomradio.html

Beats reading!  Sit back and listen


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## speves (30 January 2007)

Thanks mogilla...guess that explains the rise.  The CEO certainly puts a positive spin on things.


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## UMike (30 January 2007)

I certainly regret selling this stock today (bought FUN and PPX) and hope to get back in if the circumstances permit.


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## theasxgorilla (31 January 2007)

speves said:
			
		

> Thanks mogilla...guess that explains the rise.  The CEO certainly puts a positive spin on things.




I've heard him speaking about the company on a number of occasions.  It's his job so you expect him to be good at it...but on all occasions he has come across as very, very good at it.

Consider this recording of the AGM back in November 06, where from memory he talks about the rather large "short-interest" and possible market manipulation of his company's share price by hedge funds.

http://www.acnnewswire.net/press/en/34011/Boardroomradio.html

http://www.smh.com.au/news/cbd/asx-censors-criticism-aimed-at-it/2006/11/16/1163266711928.html


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## rawmaterial (12 April 2007)

Highest ASX200 gain today moved up 14.47%   on the receive of Environmental Approval for Chatree North Mining Leases.

Does someone here have an idea of how long it usually take for such Mining lease to be granted once the compnay received the environmental approval?

Take PDN for example, Environmental Approval on 03/04/2007 and Mining lease was granted on 10/04/2007. But we are not really comparing apple to apple here since one is a gold mine in Thailand and the other is yellowcake in Malawi.

Would anyone know of a similar situation that have happened in the pass so we can have a better idea of the timeframe?


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## UMike (6 November 2007)

UMike said:


> I certainly regret selling this stock today (bought FUN and PPX) and hope to get back in if the circumstances permit.



Well ......

Back in at $5.

Westpac BT has a really good write up about it and Gold is the flavor of the moment.


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## michael_selway (6 November 2007)

UMike said:


> Well ......
> 
> Back in at $5.
> 
> Westpac BT has a really good write up about it and Gold is the flavor of the moment.




Its a great company this, but some risk

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -22.2 24.7 63.0 73.8 
DPS 0.0 14.0 23.0 42.5 *

thx

MS


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## refined silver (3 December 2007)

Ouch!! What happened today. A 20% drop and then a trading halt???

(Don't own any - just watching)


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## michael_selway (3 December 2007)

refined silver said:


> Ouch!! What happened today. A 20% drop and then a trading halt???
> 
> (Don't own any - just watching)




Hm yep! Not too much factual detail atm

thx

MS



> BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--Thailand has suspended 53 applications from a unit of Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd. (KCN.AU) for gold exploration and production licenses in Phichit and Phetchabun provinces, the Bangkok Post reported Monday quoting a senior government official.
> 
> Primary Industries & Mines Department director-general Anusorn Nuangpolmark said a total of 60 applications in the two provinces have been suspended so in-depth environmental impact studies can be carried out, according to the report.
> 
> ...




"Media Release - 3 December 2007
KINGSGATE CALLS FOR CLARIFICATION ON LEASE APPLICATIONS
Kingsgate (ASX:KCN), and its Thai subsidiary Akara Mining Limited, have received Thai media reports
alleging the suspension of applications for gold exploration and production licences by the Thai government.
Kingsgate and Akara are obtaining clarification from the Thai Mines Department (DPIM).
Kingsgate and Akara are proud of their record of being the safest gold mine in the world, after six years of
operation with no environmental incidents.
Recently the company was awarded Social Accountability SA8000 - the most credible example of treating
people fairly and equitably. It was the first mining company in the world to achieve this.
The Chairman of Kingsgate, Mr Ross Smyth-Kirk, said the company had overwhelming community support
and has set the benchmark for the most rigid environmental practices of any mining company in the region.
“We are surprised by any claims to the contrary”, he said. “The company has consistently delivered social
and economic benefits for both local communities and the Kingdom of Thailand.”
This year, His Excellency the Thai Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont personally presented the company with
its fifth consecutive Thai Prime Minister’s Best Practice Award for Employee Welfare and Labour Relations.
This is in addition to the Thai AustCham’s award for Environmental Excellence 2006 and the Thai National
Health & Safety and Environment Award 2005.
The company adheres to world’s best practice in environmental, social, community and labour relations and
also has international ISO standards for Environment ISO14001, Health & Safety OHSAS18001, Quality
ISO9001, and the Thai Labour Standard TLS8001.
The company currently has 52 exploration licences (SPL’s) and five mining leases granted (ML’s). A further
nine Mining Lease Applications are pending. These are located immediately to the north of the Chatree mine
and have an approved Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which was granted in April 2007 after a
rigorous two year process. Forty-four exploration licences (SPLA’s) are pending final approval by the Minister
of Industry.
Elections in Thailand are being held on 23 December 2007.
Media Enquiries: Suzanne Blake 0414 233 500
Investor Enquiries: Stephen Promnitz +61 419 194 918"


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## juw177 (3 December 2007)

Yes, and just when I post a thread about why I should set stop losses to protect from breakdowns like this, it happens to me again.

What are the chances that it will be a hoax and the people that work in the culprit media had been buying up? What a ride that would be. But that is just wishful thinking.


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## So_Cynical (4 December 2007)

KCN comes outa the trading Halt tomorrow (i think) and im wondering what
interested members think will happen.

How low can KCN go :dunno: 

Is there any real risk the a new Thai Govt could pull the plug on 
there operations...or make it so difficult for them to operate that 
KCN are forced to bail out?

Or will tomorrow be just a great buying opportunity?


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## ekoment (4 December 2007)

Personally I do not know which way the decision will go & how long this will take. Have been trying to get an update from the online newspaper sites today regarding the cabinet meeting to be held today that is supposed to resolve this. Attached site is worth a look.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/index.php

I have had my KCN for quite a while and was prepared to wait for the lease approvals at the slow pace - as I was pre-warned. -- But the turn around of already approved decisions now make it a concern.
With the senior management supposedly heading to Thailand to take up discussions, I guess that the decision may take some time to sort out.

I just hope that common sense will prevail in all of this and the good things that Kingsgate have been doing at this site (which are quite commendable), will be seen as an economic benefit for the Thai people and the future elected goverment.

Yes - I will be watching the monitor tomorrow with hope of a favourable result and SP rise.


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## So_Cynical (4 December 2007)

The election is on the 23 Dec so i doubt that any decisions will be made 
by this govt...what will the new govts agenda be?

I would think business as usual...but u never know.


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## ekoment (4 December 2007)

Just came across this article on the Bangkok Independent Newspaper website.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/12/04/business/business_30058227.php
Now we know ?!?

GOLD MINING 
Gold mining exploration licenses put on hold
The Cabinet yesterday agreed to postpone the consideration on new gold exploration licenses until the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) completes the revision of the government policy for this industry. 

The move will affect five firms, which are Akara Mining, Richbhumi Mining, Amanta, Arawan Mining, and Paron Mining which have submitted exploration licenses for 56 gold fields. The exploration is expected to require an investment of Bt10 billion per field.

Of total, Akara Mining applies for 44 gold fields in Phetchabun, 2 fields in Chanthaburi belong to Richbhumi, Amunta applied for 2 fields in Suratthani, Arawan Mining for 2 fields in Chanthaburi and 2 fields in Rayong, and Paron Mining for 4 fields in Chanthaburi province. 

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras said the NESDB was assigned to review and revise the government policy for gold mining, which has been in use since 1987.

- The Nation 
Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul


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## So_Cynical (4 December 2007)

ekoment said:


> Gold mining exploration licenses put on hold
> The Cabinet




There will be a new Cabinet after the 23rd December...or does it
work differently in Thailand.

Im thinking...New Cabinet new decision. :dunno:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/10/09/ap/world/mainD8KL8UMO0.shtml

BANGKOK, Thailand, Oct. 9, 2006
(AP) Thailand's king swore in post-coup Cabinet ministers on Monday, urging them to work 
honestly as the country tries to move beyond its political crisis.

The top jobs of the interim government _ announced early in the day in a television broadcast while most Thais slept _ were given to economists, high-profile civil servants and two retired military officers, all of whom are expected to govern until elections in October 2007./end

So looks like whoever wins this cabinet is history...there not politicians.


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## refined silver (4 December 2007)

Interesting. A great buying opportunity, or just more of the hassles in working in these countries?

The Thai royalty hike recently was a jolt. 20% is the top rate - that's absolutely massive. 

Without the political risk its a superb company with great projects and potential. With the political risks.....??????? Who knows.


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## So_Cynical (5 December 2007)

The Thai royalty mite get rescinded as well...im sure KCN execs would 
be arguing hard about that.

ill be watching KCN very closely tomorrow...i do love a bargain.


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## So_Cynical (5 December 2007)

Suspension from Official Quotation

Im thinking that just cant be good...i imagine its a bit like 
hitting the panic button. :dunno: 

Do company's Suspend trading for good news???? or is it
just the same as a halt...can be good or bad news?


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## bigdog (5 December 2007)

Bangkok Post today

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/05Dec2007_biz99.php

MINING / ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS

Gold mine policy clarified

YUTHANA PRAIWAN

Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras yesterday clarified the ministry's delay in granting exploration licences for gold fields, saying it was necessary to revise the policy on gold-mine development for a better balance of interests between mining and communities.

The 56 suspended applications include 44 fields in Phetchabun sought by Akara Mining Co, the local unit of Australia's Kingsgate; two fields in Chanthaburi of Rich Phum Co, two fields in Surat Thani of Amanta Co; four fields in Chanthaburi and Rayong ran by Erawan Mining; and four fields in Chanthaburi of Paron Mining Co, totalling 500,000 rai.

The policy does not affect companies that already have exploration and production licences, which can continue to operate as usual. The suspended applications will be reconsidered once they are cleared by two agencies _ the Forestry Department of the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry; and the Interior Ministry _ especially for sites in reserved forests and public areas.

Community and environmental protests have increased in recent years over gold mining, which the government first promoted in 1987.

The cabinet yesterday endorsed a National Economic and Social Development Board plan to conduct a detailed study to find a new direction for gold-mine development to accommodate environmental and community concerns.


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## UMike (5 December 2007)

So_Cynical said:


> Suspension from Official Quotation
> 
> Im thinking that just cant be good...i imagine its a bit like
> hitting the panic button. :dunno:
> ...



 Really in can only be bad news or business as usual.

This absolutely reeks of local politics. This is all the innfo I can find.



			
				BankokPost said:
			
		

> MINING / ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
> 
> Gold mine policy clarified
> 
> ...


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## bigdog (10 December 2007)

Todays Australian

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22895805-643,00.html

*Kingsgate regains its lustre*

Kevin Andrusiak | December 10, 2007

THAILAND-focused gold miner Kingsgate Consolidated has lashed out at false media reports last week that cast doubt on critical approvals of new leases at its Chatree gold mine.

Kingsgate is expected to be released from a trading halt on the Australian Securities Exchange this morning, armed with advice from senior Thai government officials that the applications for nine leases at Chatree North were still being processed - and not included in a new review of gold mining and its effect on the environment in Thailand, as had been reported.

"Kingsgate confirms that initial Thai media reports early last week were incorrect and misleading. This led to a misinformed market," the company said.

"The facts are the normal processing of the nine mining lease applications at Chatree North remain unaffected by the new review process."

Kingsgate managing director Gavin Thomas and chairman Ross Smyth-Kirk rushed to Thailand last week after The Bangkok Post reported that 60 exploration and production licence applications for the Phichit and Phetchabun provinces had been suspended so authorities could conduct deep environmental due diligence.

After the incorrect reports, investors wiped 20 per cent off the company's market capitalisation before the shares were suspended on Wednesday.

The trouble came after the Thai Government recently lifted the royalty rate for gold mining.

Kingsgate is awaiting approval to mine an area on its leases just north of Chatree, as the current operation is becoming exhausted.

Kingsgate applied for the licences more than four years ago.

Ore supplies are expected to run out at Chatree before the end of the financial year, but the company's cash reserves of $50 million have given it breathing space needed to wait for the Chatree leases.

Mr Thomas was reluctant to speculate on when the lease applications would be granted, allowing Kingsgate to access the high-grade ore at Chatree North.

Kingsgate has strong support from local communities and is a three-time winner of the National Occupational Health Safety and Environment Award in Thailand.

The Sydney-based miner had initially hoped that the leases would be approved before Christmas, but Mr Smyth-Kirk said at last month's AGM that there was little chance that necessary licences would be issued before the December 23 national elections.

It appears likely that a coalition will be needed to form government, led by either the People Power party or the Democrat party.

Mr Thomas said Kingsgate had the backing of both sides but a new government would not be officially formed until early February.

"While the media reports caught us completely offside, it did give us a chance to get to Thailand and talk to government officials and senior members of the political parties contesting the election," Mr Thomas said.

"We got reconfirmation that they all are very supportive of the gold mining industry and foreign investment. We are down to the very last strokes of getting the approvals. but I've been burned too many times in the past saying when it was likely that they would be signed off."

Goldman Sachs JBWere analysts noted recently that while they saw "significant value" in Kingsgate, it was entirely dependent upon the successful resolution of the mining lease applications.

"Chatree mine is an efficient and extremely safe mining operation," they said. "Kingsgate has built up an enviable exploration database and team that has delineated a gold province, not just a gold mine."


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## juw177 (10 December 2007)

Despite the fact that nothing has changed, it looks like there will be a lot of resistance around $4.75 (the support that has held for the last months), until at least the elections.


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## michael_selway (10 December 2007)

juw177 said:


> Despite the fact that nothing has changed, it looks like there will be a lot of resistance around $4.75 (the support that has held for the last months), until at least the elections.




Hm intersting

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -27.6 9.8 70.8 73.8 
DPS 0.0 12.5 17.3 43.3 *



> Date: 10/12/2007
> Author: Katrina Nicholas
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 18
> Australian-listed gold mining group Kingsgate Consolidated will emerge from atrading halt on the stock exchange on 10 December 2007. Its share price haddeclined markedly in the previous week due to news that the Thai Government wascarrying out a review of mining approval applications that could affect thecompany's Chatree asset. Kingsgate now says it has been reassured that itsoperation will not be covered by the new measures. However, it also does notbelieve its applications will be processed prior to the general election inThailand on 23 December


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## UMike (10 December 2007)

I got more at $4.50.

Westpac still rates this as a buy with an intrinsic value of $7.70.

It's relationship with the Thai local community and regulatory authorities does still seem to be very positive.


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## bigdog (11 December 2007)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22902718-643,00.html

*Kingsgate shines after suspension*
Kevin Andrusiak | December 11, 2007

SHARES in gold miner Kingsgate Mining made a triumphant return to the stock exchange boards yesterday after the company confirmed its lease applications for its Chatree mine were not affected by a new review initiated by the military-backed Thailand Government.

The stock price jumped 21 per cent when the suspension on the shares was lifted yesterday morning, partly cancelling out a 95c fall the previous Monday after Thai media reports suggested the lease applications had been stalled by the new review.

After meetings between Kingsgate executives and Thai officials last week, the Sydney-based miner was able to declare that the lease applications were still being reviewed.

A decision is not expected until early 2008 following Thai elections on December 23.

The leases are vital to Kingsgate's mining operations in Thailand because ore at its current operations is expected to be exhausted by the end of the current financial year.

The leases would give Kingsgate access to the high-grade zones to the north of the Chatree open pit.

Kingsgate has a good track record, both socially and environmentally, in Thailand.

Shares in the company closed 14 per cent higher, rising by 55c to $4.50 yesterday.


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## UMike (16 January 2008)

UP over 10% in about an hour.

Closed and my long term sell order was next in line.

Any news or supposed rumor ?????


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## michael_selway (16 January 2008)

UMike said:


> UP over 10% in about an hour.
> 
> Closed and my long term sell order was next in line.
> 
> Any news or supposed rumor ?????




KCN does have good numbers despite soverign Thailand risks

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -27.6 22.0 40.9 70.4 
DPS 0.0 12.3 12.5 37.8 *

Also gold could be bullish if US Fed cutrates in the recession etc

thx

MS


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## rgdk (7 February 2008)

Does anyone have any inside information on this stock in terms of the downward price movement of late?

My suspicion is that, given the impending outcome of its lease approval process, absolute speculation is driving this stock i.e. a bit of a down sends everyone into a panic because 'someone, somewhere must know something', but the exact same thing happened with the upswing in Jan.

To be honest, the stock is a bit of a punt now given the erractic gold-related policy of the Thais of late, but the word is that the new PM is something of a Thaksin stooge and will be angling to get him back into the country and then potentially back in power. This would imply the new PM has aligned views with the pre-coup government which was not responsible for the recent freeze on new exploration leases. Also. in terms of current policy, stimulating overseas investment in Thailand has been made a priority in the near term so one would think that this stacks the odds in favour of a positive outcome.

Anyone with inside contacts in the Thai government??


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## michael_selway (19 July 2008)

rgdk said:


> Does anyone have any inside information on this stock in terms of the downward price movement of late?
> 
> My suspicion is that, given the impending outcome of its lease approval process, absolute speculation is driving this stock i.e. a bit of a down sends everyone into a panic because 'someone, somewhere must know something', but the exact same thing happened with the upswing in Jan.
> 
> ...




Hi does anyoen still own this stock?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -27.6 10.0 59.0 197.6 
DPS 0.0 11.0 15.8 16.8 *









> Jamie Freed
> July 19, 2008
> 
> 
> ...


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## VViCKiD (19 July 2008)

I sold mine some time ago... it was way too volatile for my liking..
anyone care to estimate a price target provided the lease permit goes through ?


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## vegemite (19 July 2008)

Hi Michael,

Can I ask where you sourced these figures from?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -27.6 10.0 59.0 197.6 
DPS 0.0 11.0 15.8 16.8 

If they did come to pass (almost $2 eps in 2010) then you would expect at least $10 per share (and that is being quite conservative

Cheers V


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## subi1 (19 July 2008)

I have seen targets well over $8 but it depends on the leases being granted. I am also pretty sure I have heard brokers say that they could double once the leases have come through.

They are targeting production of 300,000 ounces of gold and 1.5 million ounces of silver in 2010(depending on when the leases are granted).
The papers are saying that the equipment for the mill upgrade has been ordered.

The other thing about Kingsgate is that they also have quite a bit of exploration to go on with and it is quite possible that Chatree is only the start.

They have put out quite a few presentations while we have been waiting for the leases to be granted and they are available on their website at

www.kingsgate.com.au

I hold some of this stock and have been waiting patiently for the leases to be granted so hopefully it will be good news next week. Please do your own research as i only know what I read and half of that may be hype.


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## Sean K (19 July 2008)

subi1 said:


> I have seen targets well over $8 but it depends on the leases being granted. I am also pretty sure I have heard brokers say that they could double once the leases have come through.



Yes subi, I have heard some comments like this and if the news comes through on an up day for gold then it will be quite significant for the sp, pending other market dramas.

Personally, I have the feeling that the leases will be granted because overall, it will be good for the new leaderships own hip pockets. 



Good luck to long term holders.


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## subi1 (22 July 2008)

The leases have now been granted and the excitement should start.

Check out their presentations at  

www.kingsgate.com.au


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## UMike (22 July 2008)

subi1 said:


> I have seen targets well over $8 but it depends on the leases being granted. I am also pretty sure I have heard brokers say that they could double once the leases have come through.
> 
> They are targeting production of 300,000 ounces of gold and 1.5 million ounces of silver in 2010(depending on when the leases are granted).
> The papers are saying that the equipment for the mill upgrade has been ordered.
> ...



 I also have been a long term holder (partial trader).

Great to see the leases being granted and wasn't suprised at the sharp increase.

It is now consoladating so hopefully they will reach their true value in the next week or two.


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## peteai (23 July 2008)

UMike said:


> I also have been a long term holder (partial trader).
> 
> Great to see the leases being granted and wasn't suprised at the sharp increase.
> 
> It is now consoladating so hopefully they will reach their true value in the next week or two.




I'm am surprised  KCN has not kicked along further than it has with the leases being granted - I mean the situation was looking dire if there was any further delay - now it looks like a PE of 3 by 2010 &  possible further upside if further exploration success (likely). Am I missing something?

Cheers,
PETEAI


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## Miner (29 July 2008)

Bell potter recommendations (I personally always double check BPS recommendations and mostly found they were in correct or contradictory and do not update recommendations for long time)

*We consider KCN suitable for speculative investors

**We are maintaining our Speculative Buy recommendation and may consider upgrading to a Buy recommendation as detail on costing and timelines for the proposed mill expansion (by*​Ausenco) and purchase of required mining fleet becomes available.

We have an updated assessed value of $4.92 (previously $3.96) and a price target of $6.40 (previously $5.15), which incorporates revised gold price and FX assumptions and assumes a successful expansion of gold production to ~250,000ozpa by FY11.

KCN’s gold production is unhedged and for investors with a bullish outlook on the gold price this provides attractive exposure to movements in the gold price. At a constant Au price of US$1,000/oz (and FX of 0.95) the assessed value of KCN would increase to $6.81, with a price target of $8.85.
*Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) Speculative Buy*

KCN S&P/ASX Small Resources
Bell


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## UMike (29 July 2008)

Aspect Huntly droppped the spec from the Buy recomendation since the Ministerial approval for the grant of the Chatree North mining leases. (although in the risk rating them maintained a "high")


Their intrinsic value is $9.50/share with Gold calculated at $750.

dyor I 'spose.


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## peteai (23 October 2008)

*KCN - Kingsgate*

This stock appears severely undervalued IMO - but then again it is only my judgement:

Commsec reports the following

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
	2008	2009	2010	2011
EPS	11.8	39.7	58.4	89.3
DPS	0.0	5.5	24.0	29.0

This is for a stock that trades at $2.60 & has no debt

I'm interested in others opinions on this


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## UMike (24 October 2008)

*Re: KCN - Kingsgate*



peteai said:


> This stock appears severely undervalued IMO - but then again it is only my judgement:
> 
> Commsec reports the following
> 
> ...



Which stock isn't severely undervalued ATM ;-)

One month ago this was my favorite..... Now .....

Can't beleive the bad luck in not being able to sell some parcels a fews days ago. 

Long term winner IMO.


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## Goldmann (28 January 2009)

KCN recovered nicely with the gold price... 

any forecasts on results from December quarter? i think they are due early Friday or monday???


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## Front Runner (21 July 2009)

Anyone have a view on KCN? Seems to have run much harder than thier earnings would support. I know their cash costs are down slightly, but nothing to get excited about... Everyone knew that would happen at Chatree North and should have been priced in. Chatree North will also bring capex. Also the takeover story is getting boring. Might be time to opt out I am thinking.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (25 August 2009)

Can anybody inform as to why the small surge in KCN today ,it caught me unaware and I sold my stock far too cheaply . Have scanned announcements but come up with zilche.....interesting ???????


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## Front Runner (31 August 2009)

Target price now 10 bucks. Up 8.2% today to 7.65 but still no real news. No real gold stocks rally. Inefficient mkt? Or just smart money? The later I reckon.


2245 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere upgrades Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN.AU) to buy from hold. Says full year net profit of A$32.5 million came in ahead of forecast of A$21.3 million and fully franked dividend of 15 cents a share was also unexpected. Says KCN controls one of the lowest cost global gold mines with reasonable scale and a dominant exploration position in an underexplored gold field, "exactly the target for aggressive mid tier global gold companies". Target price set at A$10; KCN last traded at A$6.87. (APW)


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## MarkeyMark (7 January 2010)

Front Runner said:


> Target price now 10 bucks. Up 8.2% today to 7.65 but still no real news. No real gold stocks rally. Inefficient mkt? Or just smart money? The later I reckon.
> 
> 
> 2245 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere upgrades Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN.AU) to buy from hold. Says full year net profit of A$32.5 million came in ahead of forecast of A$21.3 million and fully franked dividend of 15 cents a share was also unexpected. Says KCN controls one of the lowest cost global gold mines with reasonable scale and a dominant exploration position in an underexplored gold field, "exactly the target for aggressive mid tier global gold companies". Target price set at A$10; KCN last traded at A$6.87. (APW)




So from my reading they claim that they may have up to $10billion in the ground at current prices. With many analysts claiming gold will hit $1500 an ounce this company could go much higher than $10. Also thye have a very large fund manager taking a position (Black Rock) and they bought in around $9.


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## blackjack (21 June 2010)

can someone explain to me why this company has shares at over 10 dollars when the likes of Lihir is less than 50% of this
I cant understand it


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## grace (21 June 2010)

blackjack said:


> can someone explain to me why this company has shares at over 10 dollars when the likes of Lihir is less than 50% of this
> I cant understand it




Hi there blackjack.  If I understand your question correctly......

It is not the share price that is important, but the market capitalization (MC) that is.

MC  = Shares on Issue x Share Price


You need to have a look at both Market Caps first to compare.

On more speculative shares, you may also need to consider options not converted which can also add significant dilution to the share price.


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## blackjack (30 June 2010)

thanks
i see the price drifting down again
there will be an IPO here in Thailand soon and so I might get set with a few shares and then maybe in the front row for the IPO on the SET (THai stock exchange)
thanks


----------



## blackjack (29 August 2010)

blackjack said:


> thanks
> i see the price drifting down again
> there will be an IPO here in Thailand soon and so I might get set with a few shares and then maybe in the front row for the IPO on the SET (THai stock exchange)
> thanks




lots of gold
BOI Thailand agreement for 5 years
tax free on imported mining equipment
cheap to produce an ounce of gold
Thai sub company will IPO this year or early next
expanding and doubling capacity

i bought in as VV says its worth $22 dollars and is their highest rated stock for many weeks now

I feel that when the USA fails that gold will go up and this mining stock is where to be

I also bought MML in the Philippines as they are producing for $190 per ounce


----------



## fanger (22 December 2010)

Is this merger with Dominion Mining going to be good for Kingsgate? The share price still hasn't recovered from the announcement back in october.


----------



## sreeve (30 January 2012)

Kingsgate chart over the last decade or so attached below. Nice bounce in recent weeks, but two key resistance levels likely around $7.50, and then $8.50. Key support region around $5.75.

Cheers
Scott


----------



## mark299 (21 December 2012)

Does any know why has KCN gone down so much in the last two months? I thought we had some good resistance at around $6 mark?


----------



## skc (21 December 2012)

mark299 said:


> Does any know why has KCN gone down so much in the last two months? I thought we had some good resistance at around $6 mark?




Not really down that much in relation to other gold stocks like NCM, SBM, PRU, RSG just to name a few.


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## danbradster (21 December 2012)

mark299 said:


> Does any know why has KCN gone down so much in the last two months? I thought we had some good resistance at around $6 mark?




AUD Gold has fallen, so KCN would be expected to fall too.

Hopefully management deliver on their promises with Challenger, than would be enough to diverge us from the lower gold price.


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## nizora (31 January 2013)

_


danbradster said:



			AUD Gold has fallen, so KCN would be expected to fall too.

Hopefully management deliver on their promises with Challenger, than would be enough to diverge us from the lower gold price.
		
Click to expand...


_

End Jan *2010*, KCN share price *$8.80 AUD* . Gold price was *$1065 USD*
End Jan *2013*, KCN share price *$3.99 AUD* . Gold price is *$1679 USD*
What has gone wrong here ? Could anyone please explain ?


----------



## skc (31 January 2013)

nizora said:


> End Jan *2010*, KCN share price *$8.80 AUD* . Gold price was *$1065 USD*
> End Jan *2013*, KCN share price *$3.99 AUD* . Gold price is *$1679 USD*
> What has gone wrong here ? Could anyone please explain ?




Perhaps you want to explore the other 2 variables, namely, production volume and cost/oz?

Having said that, the way every gold sotck is smashed after their quarterly is really something to behold.


----------



## So_Cynical (31 January 2013)

nizora said:


> End Jan *2010*, KCN share price *$8.80 AUD* . Gold price was *$1065 USD*
> End Jan *2013*, KCN share price *$3.99 AUD* . Gold price is *$1679 USD*
> What has gone wrong here ? Could anyone please explain ?




Obviously more to it than the gold price.

I've just had my first look at KCN in probably 4 years, High production costs in both Thailand (low grade) and Challenger (old), the Thai Govt as usual being a pain in the ass, high development costs for Bowdens and Chile having to pretty much start from scratch, POG sentiment not doing to well.

Lots of reasons why KCN's SP is not doing so well.


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 January 2013)

nizora said:


> End Jan *2010*, KCN share price *$8.80 AUD* . Gold price was *$1065 USD*
> End Jan *2013*, KCN share price *$3.99 AUD* . Gold price is *$1679 USD*
> What has gone wrong here ? Could anyone please explain ?




Just looking at it from a chartist view.

It has been trading sideways between about $4.50 and $5.00 since Nov 12, give or take 0.15 or so.

Now it has dropped on huge volume to $4.00., which is old support from Aug 2012.

If it trades sideways it may regain upwards momentum. A significant fall below $4.00 on high volume, or even on low, may not auger well.






gg


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## fanger (4 February 2013)

nizora said:


> End Jan *2010*, KCN share price *$8.80 AUD* . Gold price was *$1065 USD*
> End Jan *2013*, KCN share price *$3.99 AUD* . Gold price is *$1679 USD*
> What has gone wrong here ? Could anyone please explain ?




Its gone from $12 to $4 between 2010 to 2013 because cost of production has tripled.


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## G Gekko (30 April 2013)

Despite increased production costs, KCN is still a really profitable company. In this market, I feel as though companies like these are being unfairly hammered and I rate KCN as significantly undervalued when considering a perspective that in the present day circumstances are temporary. I really feel that as the global economy picks up companies such as these will be positioned to do exceptionally well, so have placed an order to buy 444 shares at a limit of $2.25. I anticipate my order will be filled with no problems.


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## JTLP (30 April 2013)

G Gekko said:


> Despite increased production costs, KCN is still a really profitable company. In this market, I feel as though companies like these are being unfairly hammered and I rate KCN as significantly undervalued when considering a perspective that in the present day circumstances are temporary. I really feel that as the global economy picks up companies such as these will be positioned to do exceptionally well, so have placed an order to buy 444 shares at a limit of $2.25. I anticipate my order will be filled with no problems.




Really profitable? Their latest quarterly showed rising costs and not a lower end to their production forecast.

Gold would have to turn pretty hard for me to have a look and they don't seem to be turning around any time soon. Plenty of time to wait and better companies out there with cheaper oz production - check out PRU for example.


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## G Gekko (30 April 2013)

JTLP said:


> Really profitable? Their latest quarterly showed rising costs and not a lower end to their production forecast.
> 
> Gold would have to turn pretty hard for me to have a look and they don't seem to be turning around any time soon. Plenty of time to wait and better companies out there with cheaper oz production - check out PRU for example.




Thanks for your feedback. You've prompted me to look deeper into the company's prospects and I decided to cancel my order. I looked at some gold charts and realized this company's heavy exposure to gold prices on it's bottom line. Based on a presumption that prices would rise... the company may still do quite well... but it would be more speculative in my mind that gold won't continue to tread downward.

(A presumption that it will decrease is equally speculative but if I wouldn't be willing to buy gold at this point... I'm probably better off side-stepping this stock).


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## G Gekko (30 April 2013)

Just to add, although my view of gold was initially negative I decided to invest in another gold stock who I felt had stronger fundamentals to capitalize on the next few years. I still don't rate KCN too poorly at this stage, but they probably have some work to do to address cost issues.


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## JTLP (1 May 2013)

G Gekko said:


> Thanks for your feedback. You've prompted me to look deeper into the company's prospects and I decided to cancel my order. I looked at some gold charts and realized this company's heavy exposure to gold prices on it's bottom line. Based on a presumption that prices would rise... the company may still do quite well... but it would be more speculative in my mind that gold won't continue to tread downward.
> 
> (A presumption that it will decrease is equally speculative but if I wouldn't be willing to buy gold at this point... I'm probably better off side-stepping this stock).




Whilst I can't give you investment advice; I'm glad you dug a little deeper. Plenty of time to assess what will happen to the market and definitely read up and follow a stock for a little bit to understand more


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## Country Lad (23 August 2013)

Follow up  from the breakout thread.  Break from an obvious pattern.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Country Lad (29 August 2013)

Stopped out this morning obviously, as I was with a number of others.  Seeing I was out most of the morning and didn't look at the market, thank goodness for conditional orders.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## qldfrog (29 August 2013)

conditional order was too tight big loss, offloaded half of them at 2.08... the rest will keep the damage is done


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## skc (29 August 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Stopped out this morning obviously, as I was with a number of others.  Seeing I was out most of the morning and didn't look at the market, thank goodness for conditional orders.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




The correlation between all the gold names are quite high (and somewhat divoiced from the gold spot price of late) so when you have multiple long positions based on recent patters, you are going to cop a bit of portfolio heat on a day like today. 

So far almost every gold miner's report have been sold...


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## pixel (29 August 2013)

skc said:


> The correlation between all the gold names are quite high (and somewhat divoiced from the gold spot price of late) so when you have multiple long positions based on recent patters, you are going to cop a bit of portfolio heat on a day like today.
> 
> So far almost every gold miner's report have been sold...




For me, the curtain fell on Tuesday: 
Distribution Indicator had fired last week;
Candlesticks shaped up for Reversal;
After more than doubling from 2 months ago, holding on seemed just too risky.


----------



## skc (29 August 2013)

pixel said:


> For me, the curtain fell on Tuesday:
> Distribution Indicator had fired last week;
> Candlesticks shaped up for Reversal;
> After more than doubling from 2 months ago, holding on seemed just too risky




I probably would have held. Gold spot price has been firming up and with tension in middle east and all that, an expectation of continued upswing in gold miners probably isn't that silly. 

Some of these gold names are at the cusp of profitability at current gold price, so small variation in gold price results in large variation in profitability and hence valuation. So even though it's doubled from the bottom I don't think that's enough of a reason to run away last Tuesday.

Anyway, my call is all hindsight anyway so ...


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## pixel (29 August 2013)

skc said:


> So even though it's doubled from the bottom I don't think that's enough of a reason to run away last Tuesday.




Not by itself, I agree. 
But there were several signals coming together: When I see Distribution signals, the candles screaming "Reversal!" and momentum turning sharply down, I know where to put my profits. 

PS: I had also a Fibonacci study showing 261.8% on $2.88.


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## gildas (6 September 2013)

Lol, I bought KCN @2.5 and then add to move outback and then it's 1.92.
I wonder what should I do? I may keep it until end of September as I already lost a lot.


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## jerkygirl (11 October 2013)

Poor Kingsgate, getting smashed left and righ since I bought at 2.18 few weeks back now...where to now...please come back up!


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## Tsubodai (20 December 2013)

Could there be some light at the end of the tunnel for Kinsgate with 1.15Mil bids and 0.65Mil asks? or will it continue its slide until it crashes through the earths crust? Here's hoping it will regain some of its value as it deserves.


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## skyQuake (20 December 2013)

Tsubodai said:


> Could there be some light at the end of the tunnel for Kinsgate with 1.15Mil bids and 0.65Mil asks? or will it continue its slide until it crashes through the earths crust? Here's hoping it will regain some of its value as it deserves.




Today's close will be a swing low imo


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## skc (20 December 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Today's close will be a swing low imo




Index rebalance today so expect funny business I suppose...


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## skyQuake (20 December 2013)

skc said:


> Index rebalance today so expect funny business I suppose...




Expecting some selling into the close... and that cap raising whenever that comes on


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## UMike (17 December 2016)

FYI.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-...ernment-mine-closure/8126340?section=business


----------



## Steamy (19 December 2017)




----------



## Steamy (19 December 2017)




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## Steamy (19 December 2017)

This is the booklet that the current chairman want KCN holders not to see.


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## greggles (18 March 2019)

Breakout for KCN today following news that it has settled proceedings against its Political Risk Insurers by entering into a legally binding Heads of Agreement (HOA). 

Kingsgate had a Political Risk Insurance Policy in place at the time it is alleged that the Government of Thailand illegally expropriated its Chatree Gold Mine in May 2016. The HOA provides for a settlement to Kingsgate worth more than A$82 million.

A great result for KCN and its shareholders. KCN has gapped up this morning and is currently trading at 26c, up a whopping 73.33%.


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## barney (19 March 2019)

Certainly good news for Kingsgate.  First $55 million by mid April if all goes to plan.  They will sit a lot more comfortable when the zeros are on the balance sheet


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## sptrawler (5 September 2019)

Bought into these on Monday, from what I have read the Thai Gov may be considering re opening the Chatree gold mine, that they closed in 2017. Also Kingsgate is sueing the Thai Government for the closure.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190904/pdf/4486x8g06bvn3r.pdf


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## barney (5 September 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Bought into these on Monday




So you are already up 10% Homer … excellent

Assuming Commsec is up to date, they have a market cap of around $90 million  and about $50 million in cash and Gold .... no wonder the SP is going up


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## finicky (28 January 2020)

Arbitration hearing close now - starts Monday. A decision will take much longer, but there is a chance of an out of court settlement. Daily chart looks nice.
Disclosure: holder

From KCN Quarterly ending Dec 31

The arbitral hearings under the Thailand - Australia Free Trade Agreement (that relate to the Thai Government’s premature closure of the Chatree Gold Mine in 2016)  - A  joint decision was made to reschedule the hearings.

 Following this decision, the arbitral hearings were rescheduled for *3 to 12 February 2020*, in Singapore.

 Kingsgate is well prepared for the hearings and the Kingsgate Board continues to consider the Company has excellent prospects for a successful outcome.

 Kingsgate remains open to seeking a negotiated settlement of the matter with the Thai Government

1 year daily


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## sptrawler (28 January 2020)

Chose this in the Feb stock picking comp, on the hope there is an early settlement.


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## finicky (16 July 2020)

Kingsgate has broken out of a recent downtrend and is at 3 month high

Held

1 Year Daily


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## sptrawler (16 July 2020)

Has there been a result from the Thai court hearing? 
I sold out a while back, small profit, but thought with the virus this could end up a protracted decision.


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## finicky (16 July 2020)

Hell no, no decision - it'll moonshot or collapse at a decision.
I see it as protected from Wuhan Flu, except for court delay, as obviously not a production related stock.
Interesting bit of chart movement though. I was thinking about booking a big loss in Dacian (DCN) and using tbe charred remnants to add to my KCN position


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## UMike (16 July 2020)

There'd be Speculation about something though?


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## finicky (16 July 2020)

UMike said:


> There'd be Speculation about something though?



Looks like it mate, quite high volume for KCN, closed on its high. Might be just the technical break through a resistance level but looks too strong for that.


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## Garpal Gumnut (16 July 2020)

finicky said:


> Kingsgate has broken out of a recent downtrend and is at 3 month high
> 
> Held
> 
> ...



It looks as if an EW 3 is in the making if it can keep the energy going on the chart.

gg


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## finicky (7 August 2020)

Seems worth a comment, daily chart flagged and today broke out on high volume for this stock - closed on its high.
My idle notions to explain it are an increase in interest because of the growing conceptual inground value of the *silver* at Nueva Esperanza project in Chile. Then all those sitting on the sidelines planning to pile in before an anticipated massive court win over the Kingdom of Thailand in the confiscated Chatree mine dispute have had their hand forced by the silverbugs, haha

1 year Daily


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## finicky (4 September 2020)

Posted yesterday in the potential breakouts thread. Seems worth reposting here on the KCN thread as it is up again today on an obviously bad day generally - who knows, someone might still see speculative potential here even after recent rises - I won't be adding to my position. Am including a daily chart plus an all data Qtrly chart
To remind:
Has a court of international commercial disputes decision pending against Thai government.
Has an advanced Chilean silver project (Nueva Esperanza)
Held


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## UMike (4 September 2020)

Even if they win the dispute.
Can the Thai Govt be compelled to pay?


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## finicky (4 September 2020)

I don't know but sense from discussion elsewhere by some astute people - almost certainly.

My notions:
Thai govt is bound by TAFTA (Thai Australia Free Trade Agreement). The Australian Govt will come to Kingsgate's aid if Thailand defaults on a court order.
The court resolving the dispute is the top international court, an organ of the world bank
They have assets abroad that are confiscatable on default.
They need to attract foreign investors and have a risk rating they wouldn't want to get worse.
They probably want the mine to resume operation themselves - there are rich Thais in the Thai kleptocracy who will get a stake on resumption of operation and the mine's worth jobs and taxes when the Thai economy and tourism has been hit with covid.


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## finicky (7 September 2020)

Closed on its high, strong volume. A gap! Is it an 'ordinary' gap or a 'breakaway' gap?
I'll plump for 'breakaway', they're said to have a lower probability of filling. Next up, a 'running' gap
This is better than t.v any day.


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## Austwide (7 September 2020)

My understanding is that is a Breakaway Gap, High Volume, ends old pattern, unlikely to be filled.


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## sptrawler (7 September 2020)

I think i read they have been given the go ahead for a mine in South America, but even if that is correct wouldn't they still need a cap raising? Unless they are hoping on a Thai payout to cover it?

I don't hold


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## finicky (7 September 2020)

About the Nueva Esperanza project in Chile, they have developed it to a high degree, defining resources (silver gold) and covering stuff like mine plan, permitting. They have left options open as to whether to build  a mine themselves, jv or sell the project. It's said they've had offers but none have appealed. Before the insurance settlement over Chatree (Thailand) the pressure was on and they were trying to dispose of Nueva Esperanza. After the settlement everyone chilled and management continues to appraise options with a minimum being spent on the project while it idles. All the while silver price looking better and enhancing the projects implied value.


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## finicky (8 September 2020)

Boom - gap closed, bloody amazing.
Announcement out that basically tells investors to cool their heels and take no notice of the rumours in Thai newspapers. Company is at rest, still awaiting tribunal's decision on Chatree. That's good for chasing off some hot money. Might be pre-emptive to avoid speeding ticket.
Oh, the announcement does include this however, " ... more recently there has been a _*positive dialogue*_ with the Thai Government as to how this (negotiated settlement) might be achieved."


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## sptrawler (8 September 2020)

Corporate update on the state of play, apparently there are a few rumours circulating, so KCN putting them straight.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200908/pdf/44mf91lmv2sx33.pdf


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## UMike (9 September 2020)

finicky said:


> I don't know but sense from discussion elsewhere by some astute people - almost certainly.
> 
> My notions:
> Thai govt is bound by TAFTA (Thai Australia Free Trade Agreement). The Australian Govt will come to Kingsgate's aid if Thailand defaults on a court order.
> ...



I agree with everything you said.
I used to live in Thailand and still have many Thai connections and all are very negative about the company and their prospects.

So nice to see the upswing. As I always viewed it as a victim of vested interests.


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## finicky (10 September 2020)

The very first concession from the kleptocrats.

*Update on the Gold Sludge held at the Chatree Gold Mine, Thailand *
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) (“Kingsgate” or the “Company”) is delighted to 
announce that its subsidiary, Akara Resources, has been granted permission by the Thai 
Government to sell the high value gold and silver “sludge,” which is secured at the Chatree 
Gold Mine, to a Thai refinery to be processed into fine gold and silver.

The sludge refers to material cleaned from the tanks and processing plant following the 
closure of the Chatree Gold Mine on 31 December 2016, and has always been, and 
acknowledged to be, the property of Akara Resources. 

The sludge contains approximately *4,750 ounces of gold and 34,800 ounces of silver,* and 
is *valued at around A$14 million* at a gold price of A$2,678 an ounce (as at 9 September 
2020) before royalties, transportation and refining costs.


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## finicky (16 September 2020)

Gap heaven
(low content)


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## finicky (12 October 2020)

In my view KCN is likely embarked on another run here if we get a close above 90c today. Investors/speculators have been scenting litigatory victory since March 2019 and with greatly increasing confidence. 

Held
Sentiment: Hold

*KCN* 1 Year Daily


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## finicky (29 October 2020)

In for 10,000 more @ 80c
Shopping day
Quarterly out, nothing wrong with it.

6 mths Daily


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## finicky (17 November 2020)

Tacked on another 8,000 @ 76.5c today, think it was mostly succumbing to an urge to do something in the market.

1 Year Daily


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## sptrawler (17 November 2020)

finicky said:


> Tacked on another 8,000 @ 76.5c today, think it was mostly succumbing to an urge to do something in the market.
> 
> 1 Year Daily
> View attachment 114798



It must be the time of year LOL, I did the same with MCR and AWC today.


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## UMike (19 November 2020)

Was thinking today is there anything fundamental to this stock or is it a speculative play.

I've bought this falling knife before so beware.

disc: Very long term (bottom draw) holder.


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## finicky (19 November 2020)

Hi @UMike, it's both I have to say. You have Nueva Esperanza, they still own Chatree, they've got a powerful legal case pending - isn't that fundamental? Maybe they lose the case (umm, no imo), maybe the decision is unenforceable (can't see it and the Thai kleptocracy has just recently signed some tightened trade agreement with Australia I read). 
Anyway, I added 5,000 today @70c, it's risk on! But the chart is bad on a daily basis, I expect lower.


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## sptrawler (19 November 2020)

Hi @UMike I bought in at mid 30's, sold out at mid 60's, but in my case it was a speculative play, so as usual I sold out early. 😂
I've just done the same with VUK, bought at 2.30 falling, dollar cost averaged at 1.10, sold at 2.40 a couple of days ago, today 2.60 the story of my life. 🤪
No one has a crystal ball, you make your choices, you take your profits and try to recover your loses at the end you hope you are in front. 👍
When you are relying on the profits for your income, it tends to make you trigger happy, I find.
The other option is to become a really good trader, as per @peter2 @Skate and several others on the forum, then at least you are minimising your risk.
My buys and sells weren't stabs in the dark, with Kingsgate they had a very good chance of a favourable outcome on the Chatree mine, but any litigation against an Asian country is problamatic IMO.
With VUK the 6th biggest bank in the U.K, bad press falling price last year, then things got worse but still a decent brand.
The virus hit an whammy down to $1.10, I had to take a punt and if they pull back I will probably buy back in. 
I just needed the money for a nickel play and I thought with the U.K in another lockdown and Brexit looming there was better options elsewhere, but a couple of days makes a lot of difference.
So really no one can tell you how to play your hand, you have to work out what works for you and what you are comfortable with.
Just my opinion.


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## finicky (22 November 2020)

I pulled my bid for 5,000 more @ .655 today.

It's one of those times where I have allowed my 'fundamental' enthusiasm for a stock's prospects to eclipse an objective viewing of the chart. Reading technical commentary of others elsewhere prompted me to look at the chart impartially and the current chart is not one I would have been buying if I had no preconceived opinion of the company. So I will start bidding again if the price gets down around 0.55 (where there's a gap) or maybe 0.50

The confirmatory high volume day (at the end of Oct) following the break of support at ~0.80 isn't something I would ordinarily ignore, just got wishful I guess.

Adding to the confused sentiment is the unknown date of the publication of a settlement or, alternatively, an arbitration judgement as that day will obliterate technicals, for better or worse.

1 Year Daily


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## finicky (26 November 2020)

Hadn't foreseen this as a significant interjection before settlement or judgement - although others had. Like the release of the gold sludge it does seem to foreshadow capitulation towards a settlement by the Thai corruptocracy. Price gapped up and has been ranging between ^ 9-10%


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## barney (26 November 2020)

finicky said:


> Like the release of the gold sludge




A lazy $12 million worth of Gold!  I gotta find me some sludge to play in lol


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## finicky (9 December 2020)

Not much on the market catching my attention lately but just added 10,000 KCN @ 0.795
Two reasons: 

Return of optimism about the chart - allow me to bore you. The rapid bounce back to the 80c level via a weekly tweezer low, the following doji outside the downtrend channel (ignore the volatile wicks at the high)

Secondly, the undisputed king of interpreting the subtle political and legal machinations over Kingsgate in Thailand, 'densamer', has today tweeted about the Thai p.m sh***ng his daks and sweating bullets in cabinet (see screen grab)

Weekly


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## barney (9 December 2020)

I've only had a skim read of the whole scenario here, but has anyone put an estimate on what Kingsgate may eventually "negotiate" with the Thai government as a settlement?

Kingsgate were awarded $55 by the Courts ??  Is that correct @finicky ??    Is it possible that figure could be substantially higher given the time factor?

Appreciate any info/thoughts.


----------



## finicky (10 December 2020)

Hi @barney, the US$55m was the settlement with Kingsgate's insurer, Zurich Australia *Insurance* over a disputed political risk policy that the insurer dragged through the courts trying to bankrupt Kingsgate into submission.





						Kingsgate settles PRI Claim for more than A$82 million – www.kingsgate.com.au
					






					www.kingsgate.com.au
				




To quote, March *2019*:

"The HOA with Zurich provides for a settlement to Kingsgate worth more than AUD $82 million comprising:

A cash payment of US$55 million to be made to Kingsgate by mid-April 2019;

A requirement for the Insurers to contribute up to US$3.5 million of future costs towards the TAFTA Arbitration. The Insurers funding contribution will be paid on a pro-rata basis with Kingsgate; and

A sharing arrangement between Kingsgate and the Insurers for future distributions of TAFTA Claim proceeds.

Executive Chairman of Kingsgate, Mr Ross Smyth-Kirk, today said “I realise that it has been a long recovery process for our loyal shareholders, but this settlement transaction provides material upside for our Company, namely:

Sufficient funds to pay out in full the Corporate Debt Facility;

Liquidity to give the Company time to maximise the value of the Nueva Esperanza project through further development or sale, and remain aspirational for other development opportunities;

Kingsgate no longer requires litigation funding to pursue its PRI Claim nor its TAFTA Claim; and most importantly,

The Insurers’ pro-rata funding commitment under the HOA means that Kingsgate and the Insurers will be working together to fully prosecute the TAFTA Claim.”

“I would also like to thank our dedicated legal team at Clifford Chance .."

The arbitration hearing under TAFTA was a separate proceeding that *followed* the insurance decision and that proceeding concluded many months ago but we await the tribunal's considered judgement. Meanwhile there has been wrangling behind the scenes for a settlement between the two parties before a judgement is handed down. Kingsgate has been ordered by the court not to tell its shareholders what's going on while judgement is in abeyance.
If we win at judgement, or a preemptive settlement is reached, yes it's certain that the figure will be substantially higher than US$55m. To take the most informed and sobre prediction, densamer, whom I mentioned, said this on twitter yesterday,
"Look the way I read this news is the company already has an EV of more than -$250m, yes a negative EV."
Unless I have a cognitive issue, I think that implies a cash amount of more than $430m after the dust settles, being that the current market cap is about $180m. There are about 220m shares in KCN issued so that would be almost $2 cash per share, plus certainly, assuming this victory, a gold mine that is relicensed to operate and which already has newly awarded prospecting tenements.


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## barney (10 December 2020)

Thanks @finicky  ...... So we can assume that if the judgement is positive (which looks very likely), the Company could be very well set both financially plus have a working gold mine to continue on with.  Patience could be well rewarded.


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## finicky (29 December 2020)

Seems a pretty emphatic move above a congestion zone today, albeit the volume isn't that impressive. Could that be interpreted as less willing sellers? Consensus is that litigation resolution looms some time over the next 2 months. Last 3 candles taken together are bullish.


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## barney (29 December 2020)

finicky said:


> Last 3 candles taken together are bullish.




Agree Finicky .... Don't hold but price action looks good ⬆


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## sptrawler (30 December 2020)

Yes Finicky, if it takes off, you deserve everything you get, you have been a true believer.
A mate of mine, who put me on to them, still holds and as you will probably hold long term.


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## finicky (30 December 2020)

Thankyou for the kind words @sptrawler 
Kingsgate is almost one of those 'binary result', all or nothing situations and last time I entered one of those (Neon Energy) the cookie crumbled the wrong way - I lost $40k on a dud oil drilling result at sea, with costs mounting as the leased vessel became stranded in bad weather or something. The con artist management had to sell all our producing onshore assets to pay the vessel owner's bill. I could have sold for a bagger even after the fiirst bad result but held on till the death knell along with  the rest of the duped herd. I believe you traded Kingsgate for a profit earlier and that is reasonable.

If the Kingsgate bet does come off I'd like to think I will learn a lesson from it, but likely I won't. That is - not to just write off my duds without going back at times to seriously reassess them. My first purchases in KCN were back in 2003-05 @ average ~$3. I only did reassess KCN and multiply my holding because of some very astute commentary from others elsewhere. Codan (CDA) is one I think of in this same frame. I just left my holding in CDA to rot after some very bad news when I had the chances in 2013 and again in 2016 to double my holding at well under a dollar for what was relatively low monetary risk. I couldn't look at it. I get jaded with my dud failures and don't look at them freshly, even when massively discounted and with the chart basing.

CDA Mthly


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## finicky (1 January 2021)

I made KCN my top pick for the 2021 stock picking game. The rationale being that I am very optimistic of a fruitful outcome from the Thai litigation case obviously, but also see this expected outcome as insulating the company somewhat from broader negative market events  - in a nutshell, I fear a crash in 2021 and that is why two of my other picks are BBOZ and BBUS.
Here is a recent twitter summary of expected outcome scenarios from the always lucid and insightful densamer (den5amer)

den5amer
@den5amer
$kcn $kcn.ax

1. *Settlement*, mineral processing licence approval for Chatree ~130koz Au, 75koz Ag /year (cash cost ~US$850/oz) + ~$200m cash compensation/part sale 
*OR* 2. TAFTA ruling, ~$500m-$750m legal claim 
*AND* Nueva Esperanza ~4moz Ag, 75koz, 24koz Au /year (1/4)

2. Feb 2020, TAFTA hearing (ave. time to ruling post-hearing ~11 months), KCN reiterates post hearing “…the Company has excellent prospects for a successful outcome” Aug 2020, baseline blood samples collected by Thai Govt agency for mineral processing licence application (2/4)

3. Sept 2020, Thais release gold sludge 3 ½ years after closure Nov 2020, Thais grant 44 exploration licences highly prospective for Au and Ag (635 km^2) ~17 years after initial application (3/4)

4. “Based on the facts of the case, it’s pretty clear that the risk [of Thailand losing] is very high” Dr Kiratipong Neawmalee (PhD International Economic Law) MC $174m Cash $22m (incl. sludge) (4/4)


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## finicky (19 January 2021)

Here's a recent example of how it can happen. 

The court, the 'International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes' (ICSID), a World Bank-run arbitration tribunal, is the same court as the one that heard Kingsgate vs Thailand and is now sitting on its decision while pressure is applied to the Thais to reach a settlement. A favourable distinction to be made is that our case had the advantage of being heard under the strength of the Thailand Australia Free Trade Agreement (TAFTA) stipulations. See how a favourable ruling can be followed by moves to seize government assets abroad if the sovereign evades the award.

*How Pakistan lost $6 billion on a gold mine*
World Bank tribunal decision in favor of foreign miners could see seizure of Pakistan state property assets in US and France








						How Pakistan lost $6 billion on a gold mine
					

PESHAWAR – Pakistan’s US and France based real estate assets are at risk of confiscation as a United Kingdom court moves to enforce an arbitration tribunal decree that fined it US$5.9 billion…




					asiatimes.com


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## finicky (19 January 2021)

"It's so obvious" 'The Seven Samurai'  ☮


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## finicky (30 January 2021)

KCN is my February game pick, but not with much enthusiasm. February is the earliest expected resolution of the Chatree mine legal dispute and you don't assume these things to settle at the earliest.

The share price has been falling for four days and is down 16% in that time. The Dec Qtrly was not well received, same old same old, and the company spending millions in the Quarter while remaining idle. They've got $15m cash left in kitty but there's some griping from shareholders about $3.2m spent on corporate and admin during the Qtr. I would say a big chunk of that was for ongoing rapacious legal fees as 'our team' wrangles behind the curtain with the reps of the weasely Thai authorities. Noone knows what's going on so some speculators have acceptedly bailed with their profits.

Daily chart - messy but monthly still looks kosher





Monthly


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## finicky (3 February 2021)

Added 5,000 @ 0.92 - got bored. 
KCN tragics were hoping  the share price would catch alight on the silver excitement. KCN has the Nueva Esperanza advanced silver/gold project in Chile plus Chatree itself in Thailand produced more ozs of silver than gold. But crazy Monday barely moved the dial, they all want the scams that identify themselves as primary silver projects.


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## brerwallabi (3 February 2021)

I don’t think the Thai prime minister Prayut is in any hurry to settle and pay any compensation.
“How long has this been going on”
If Thailand do inherit a decision against them, there will be possibly further delay as Thailand deliberate who is responsible internally to pay. 
Will it be the state who pays or the prime minister Prayut who took full responsibility for the closure when he used his special powers that he gave himself after the coup to cease activities at the mine.
Internally Prayut was not a state official when he assumed responsibility for closure as he was not an elected official, so the state is not responsible. Under The Thai constitution a prime minister can not be a state official. This means possibly Prayut is responsible personally.
I suspect Thailand will delay as usually they need formation of a special committee to determine who is responsible to pay and no doubt it will be state eventually.
Just my view.


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## finicky (3 February 2021)

Those issues seem internal to me. Who pays is entirely for the Thais to sort out and will be in a strict time frame, not Thai time. Our case under the TAFTA is against the kingdom of Thailand, not any individual. Our mooted victory in the case will fall upon the entity that is the country of Thailand. They can settle, which would be in their interest compared to the likely reasonable terms of an arbitral judgement if it comes to that. Or, if it comes down to a judgement of compensation and the Thai government prevaricates, then we go through the legal processes of claiming liquid assets of theirs abroad, e.g with New York banks. Been done before against recalcitrant governments, we don't live entirely in a jungle. 

The time for a judgement to be concluded by the international centre for settlement of investment disputes (organ of the world bank) is already stretching out beyond the average resolution time we are told. Below is a clip of the scenario of what we do if they don't swiftly cough up.

By the way, I am not urging anyone else to risk money on this - it is a calculated gamble and in many cases, including mine, a project of revenge since many of us were KCN shareholders before the dictator, a minority of covetous locals and the jingoistic media unfairly crushed our investment.


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## brerwallabi (4 February 2021)

I wish you all the best however Thailand does not give chit about aliens, spend the money however you want, risk it in Thailand, we interpret laws differently every day.
Slave labour, corruption, prostitution does not exist.
Hope Kingsgate have paid the right person or persons.
The agenda might be state owned and stuff the peasants, then again I might be wrong.


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## finicky (18 February 2021)

Kingsgate ^up 8% so far today.
Page 2 of a release today, sounds like cat got out of the bag briefly in Thai parliament re advice from lawyers for the Thai case. Also, the release (page1, not shown) sounds unusually 'stern' in tone as to what qualifies as compo and what *doesn't* (mining and processing licenses, prospecting licenses). Heheh


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## finicky (27 February 2021)

Once again my monthly competition stock pick 🦽🗿 I can really only make a Clayton's post today to validate my entry. Shareholders aren't privy to negotiations and everyone's just hanging out as far as an interest in Kingsgate goes - waiting for something to happen, because nothing manifest has happened in the past month. Not even any interesting posts or tweets elsewhere for me to purloin and pass on.

As attested above, I bought more in February at a higher price than today, but looking again at the monthly chart there is no lack of optimism in the stock considering its fortunes vastly rest on the outcome of a court case. An excellent multi-year shallow base under the $1 level with the price still hugging the rising Bollinger is what i see.

How's that for a contrived post spun out of nothing? 

Decade Monthly


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## finicky (31 March 2021)

Bursting with news about KCN so here is the monthly chart. 
I'm sure the case is brewing away at the Court for settlement of international commercial disputes.


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## sptrawler (31 March 2021)

Hey @finicky, have they received their payout from the Thai Government.


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## finicky (30 April 2021)

In again for the May comp.

Actually, do have a bit of gossip this time. A new $KCN guru has emerged on twitter. His handle is @unemon1 and as well as interesting speculative insights as to the proceedings against the Thais over Chatree he has advanced a very plausible sounding scenario about the future of the 'shovel ready' silver project in Chile - Nueva Esperanza. I have screenshot it but the gist is this:

Kinross, a USD$10B NYSE mining company, has reentered the Chilean scene by restarting a mine, La Coipa, that is only 25kms away from Nueva Esperanza. It is already connected with a 38kms road. They have announced that they are interested in acquiring adjacent assets because the mine life of La Coipa is only 2 years.

When KCN put NE on the sales block in 2018, prior to taking it back off market when they got their insurance settlement, it is rumoured that they had offers on the table for NE of AUD $40-50M. But the price of silver back then was USD $18/oz and is now $26/oz and Kinross would be in a position to make a generous offer because of synergies with their already owned mine as well as being a well cashed up company.


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## finicky (31 May 2021)

Still just reading water for this. One punter is getting so starved for an outcome that he said, "no news is a good sign"
Only scrap of goss is that @unemon1 on twitter showed a while back that all the relevant published meetings of the Thai Department of Primary Industry and Mines over the matter of Chatree (Kingsgate's mine) and litigation with Akara (Kingsgate's Thai subsidiary) have been depleted of lawyers over the recent 3 months. That is, no meetings titled 'litigation', whereas before there was a spate of them. Instead it's all environmental and 'planning strategy' meetings. He finds that highly suggestive that a settlement has already been decided upon. The primary researching ability of some people is amazing.

At least no fault can be found with KCN's long term monthly chart. It's still rock solid for a basing chart. Anyone who is getting impatient and bailing out is finding a willing  buyer.


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## brerwallabi (1 June 2021)

The Thai Digital Economy and Society Ministry has warned people not to believe or share news and internet posts that the government has lost its legal case against Kingsgate Consolidated and has to compensate Kingsgate.​Careful finicky don’t fly to Thailand or you may end up in the Bangkok Hilton.

In the unsuccessful February no confidence vote brought against the Thai ruling government it was mentioned that Thailand may have to forfeit 25 billion baht in a payout to Kingsgate which equates to just over one billion Australian dollars.
The Thai prime minister Prayut responded by saying he was forming a special committee to reach a compromise with Kingsgate.


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## finicky (1 June 2021)

It's great that in Australia someone could opine that the Thai king is a profligate depraved little degenerate who loots his country and runs like a little rat from Covid taking his harem of sluts and his bloated entourage to a Swiss chalet where expense is no issue while his countrymen die and commit suicide in a zombie economy. A Thai who opined that would end up in the equivalent of a hellish oubliette even if such slander was true to the letter.


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## finicky (10 June 2021)

Email to free subscribers today from unemon who also posts at twitter @unemon1
This is not the patiently (or exasperatedly) awaited settlement or tribunal decision but a meeting slated by the Thai DPIM explicitly about the matter of renewing Kingsgate's Akara mining licence; so intuitively, why would they have such a meeting unless they are heading towards relicensing? If they had no positive intention, wouldn't they just continue to do nothing? Anyway unemon is expecting a big market reaction if this comes out well - meeting is on June 21. There might be buying pressure in anticipation?

Gist of the email:

"*Potentially great news today for KCN! *

KCN shareholders have now been waiting for over 5 years for Akara Resources to get a renewal of the mining license and finally be able to operate the Chatree mine in Thailand again! Akara is the owner and operator of the Chatree Mining Complex in Thailand and is a subsidiary of Kingsgate Consolidated Limited.

Per my findings, today a date was put on agenda of the Thai "Department of Primary Industries and Mines" *TO RENEW THE LICENSE *of AKARA. KCN shareholders have been waiting for this development for over 5 years now, since when it 2016 the Chatree mine was ordered to shut down! "

On twitter someone answered:
"When confirmed, an important first step. Next, details of the financial settlement..."

To which unemon said:
"reopening is the most important part, financial settlement is just the ice on the cake!"


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## sptrawler (10 June 2021)

Who is unemon?


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## finicky (10 June 2021)

@sptrawler 
He's seems a very cluey financial newsletter writer who does some incredible primary research including fossicking through public notices of government departments that are expressed in a foreign language. He is on twitter under the handle of @unemon1
He's super long to his subscribers on KCN. He'll be a legend if all this comes off.

I forgot that he also rates a fully operating Chatree as worth $800m - haven't tried to value it myself. He says,

"A fully Operating Chatree mine should be valued at at least  AUD $800m vs the current market cap of KCN of just AUD $200m .... and I do believe the news about this license renewal should unlock part of this value once it gets discovered by investors!"


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## finicky (11 June 2021)




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## finicky (30 June 2021)

This dream is fading somewhat. Kingsgate announced a letter of intent to sell the Nueva Esperanza project today for around $60m in staged payments of cash and shares. This does not look good to anyone hoping for a big cash settlement in the company's dispute with Thailand. However there are various ways to interpret it. It does sound like Kingsgate may settle for resumption of the right to operate the Chatree mine along with perhaps some lucrative but non cash concessions, such as: a moratorium on royalties and taxes and more exploration leases. Anyway it's all guesses, including how the balance of shareholders will react. Today they sold down the shares a little.


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## finicky (1 August 2021)

So the announcement of a settlement with Thailand dra-a-ags on.

Sale of Nueva Esperanza has gone binding - conditional only upon a successful financing for the buyer, TDG Gold Corp. Goss is that TDG has already done one placement for $4m 
Up front, close of the deal payment is CAD $25m = $27M AUD
Close could be as early as mid Aug but there is some leeway.
KCN also gets 14% of the ordinary shares of TDG Corp calculated post equity raising by TDG for the acquisition. KCN gets up to another $25m CAD at several milestones.

It's up for interpretation as to why they are selling Esperanza:
It was costing cash, even on care and maintenance.
Signaling to the predatory Thais that the company isn't going broke and can continue to fight its case.
Restart money for the Chatree mine and plant upon settlement.
Maybe they are arming against even further substantial delays by the Thais.

Kingsgate had $10m cash left at end of June, enough for another 3 Quarters without the NE cash. The company said it intends no capital raisings. It says the tribunal panel is *still* deliberating on an award, ffs.

In the Quarterly, the company sketched out what it wants for a settlement. A *cash* component for lost income, interest and start up costs is notably *absent*. Quote from the Qtrly:

" ... there are a number of issues that Kingsgate would need to have guaranteed by the Thai Government for this [settlement] to occur. These include but are not limited to: 
 tenure around key licences and permits, 
 investment and taxation incentives, 
 access to significant exploration areas; and 
 the right to freely enjoy the asset without any further obstruction.


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## brerwallabi (1 August 2021)

finicky said:


> So the announcement of a settlement with Thailand dra-a-ags on.
> 
> Sale of Nueva Esperanza has gone binding - conditional only upon a successful financing for the buyer, TDG Gold Corp. Goss is that TDG has already done one placement for $4m
> Up front, close of the deal payment is CAD $25m = $27M AUD
> ...



There is a distinct chance of another coup in Thailand.
So there may well be different palms to grease.
When it can barely afford to give its Covid affected unemployed workers the equivalent of $8 in a one off payment to get through the current Covid debacle there, the chances of closing a settlement soon are slim.
Thai’s hate losing face and that’s what it would be for the present government and its so-called democratically elected leader.
A new government may well put the saga to rest.
Hope so for the many frustrated shareholders.


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## finicky (16 September 2021)

Faked a move outside the 8 month downtrend channel today, volume up a bit.


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## finicky (17 September 2021)

Boom, as they say.
Some stronger volume came in after market close @ 0.95

Daily


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## finicky (23 September 2021)

Company update on Chatree mining operation in  Thailland rings with confidence. The lame tribunal has informed the company that it is ready to hand down a decision. However both the Thai Govt and KCN have requested a short extension so that a settlement can be finally signed off on. The Thai Govt is on notice. One thing I hope I have learned is 3xpect an u imaginable long time for lega.os and judiciary to do their job - people must have died waiting for this and many ex shareholders won't otherwise ben

Lots of *non* monetary value will be added to the company and the share market is responding. Pity that the corrupt dictator government gets away without punishment via the settlement route. Kingsgate says that once the settlement is ratified it will switch on 'optionality' which includes selling Chatree - yes please.


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## finicky (23 September 2021)

Something broke I the functionality of the above post and I have given up trying to edit it


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## brerwallabi (23 September 2021)

It’s a big loss of face for the Thai government and the cost will be approximately 30% more then if they had settled for an early agreement on the matter when the Thai baht was languishing just over 18 baht to the Oz dollar eighteen months ago compared to 24.2 now.
The loss of face will mean the government will possibly not support the continuation under Kingsgate, the best result will be a listing on the SET with ownership drifting eventually into Thai hands.
Hopefully no further delays..


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## finicky (23 September 2021)

Where's the cost for the Govt if it settles before the tribunal hands down a decision? All the benefits that KCN obtains are non monetary except for tax and royalty exemptions (which Govt would not be getting anyway if the mine and plant stayed moth-balled).

Didn't mention that the company has independent advice that reserves could be more than doubled by adjusting for the current gold price @ US$1,700. That's without bringing in new resources through exploration. They have many new special prospecting licenses with strong potential that have already been awarded as part of the Govt's capitulation.


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## UMike (5 October 2021)

Just got rid of over half my holdings Proving I am improving on my greatest weakness in knowing when to sell and not holding on too long


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

You would have to be pretty happy with your holding in KCN @finicky and it may not be finished. 🤞  The KWR chart appears to be at an interesting stage as well.

All the best

bux


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## finicky (5 October 2021)

Yes KCN still looking good @bux2000  understandable that some are monetizing at this time to cover risk, we can't be sure that the scummy Thai Govt doesn't have some trick up its sleeve. I still hold all my shares.
Will comment some time on KWR on that page - it's back at my average buy price and if it drops further could be considered a punt for the speculatively inclined; I would feel better if KWR was more cashed up as the upcoming RC and DD drilling campaign from a track mounted rig will not be cheap.


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## finicky (26 October 2021)

A new modern times high for KCN. It is strange to me that none of the momentum traders here have thought it worthy to punt on the mounting positive signs for an imminent settlement.  It's like my hot t1ts are paid no attention on this forum.


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## finicky (26 October 2021)

* tips


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## sptrawler (26 October 2021)

finicky said:


> * tips



Yes I certainly wish I had kept my nerve and held on to them.


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## finicky (26 October 2021)

@sptrawler 
I took on board your disclosure of selling at the time and it was quite rational. I am only cheesed off at fickle traders for not backing a high risk, high reward set up over a short time span.


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## frugal.rock (26 October 2021)

finicky said:


> It's like my hot t1ts are paid no attention on this forum.



Well, I remember you gave us some "bouncy bouncy" analysis elsewhere....😅
Perhaps if you donned a Borat mankini, your "hot t1ts" would be a knockout? 😂


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## Sean K (27 October 2021)

I guess that *bouncy bouncy* yesterday was due to some loose lips. Was this anticipated to be imminent @finicky ?


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## finicky (27 October 2021)

No, I was very much hoping for something fully conclusive. Progress is happening in that they are announcing what they feel free to go ahead and start doing (extending the main pit, planning to crank up one of the two processing plants, do exploration on the new prospecting licences, other updates) but they are giving the Thai government *yet another extension*, this one 90 days, to finally sign off on all agreements. That's why short term money is bailing and I don't blame them, wish I'd lightened yesterday now. Certainly trying investors' patience.


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## finicky (29 October 2021)

Managed to get a first tranche away of 10,000 @ 1.70 this morning. You can't always get what you want. I'm in the camp that views the delay of another 3 months for the Thai government to sign off as an indication that our position isn't as strong as the company projects. We have them 1 month, now we're giving them another 3 months, phooey.  After all, we still have to extract the money from them via expensive and protracted litigation if the company is forced to an arbitration decision instead of settlement. Anyway who wants to be invested in mining in Thailand now? Extraneous to this is my view that cash is more important than in normal times and in that context 3 months is a long delay. Better a bird in the hand - but will probably hold on to half my shares after getting my cost back plus a bit of profit.


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## Sean K (29 October 2021)

finicky said:


> Managed to get a first tranche away of 10,000 @ 1.70 this morning.




Very nice two month return. 🍻


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## brerwallabi (29 October 2021)

finicky said:


> Managed to get a first tranche away of 10,000 @ 1.70 this morning. You can't always get what you want. I'm in the camp that views the delay of another 3 months for the Thai government to sign off as an indication that our position isn't as strong as the company projects. We have them 1 month, now we're giving them another 3 months, phooey.  After all, we still have to extract the money from them via expensive and protracted litigation if the company is forced to an arbitration decision instead of settlement. Anyway who wants to be invested in mining in Thailand now? Extraneous to this is my view that cash is more important than in normal times and in that context 3 months is a long delay. Better a bird in the hand - but will probably hold on to half my shares after getting my cost back plus a bit of profit.



Very wise decision, Thai government will stretch it out as long as they can with poor excuses.
They probably now will have to appoint another committee to elect a committee to review the first committees preparation of agreements.
Be prepared for further delays its a national pastime delaying decisions.


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## brerwallabi (9 November 2021)

Latest news from Thailand, the natives are not happy. (Article from the Bangkok post today)
A civil society group has threatened to file legal action against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha if the government loses a legal battle against Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd and agrees to the company's terms of reopening its gold mine.
The Network of People Who Own Mineral Resources on Monday issued a statement strongly opposing the government's plan to negotiate the legal dispute between the Thai government and Australian mining company, Kingsgate Consolidated, by allowing the company to resume its gold mining operation in Thailand.
Such a decision would revive catastrophic environmental impacts for nearby communities, the network said. It warned that the PM must take full responsibility if the government loses the international arbitration lawsuit to Kingsgate, or if it accepts the company's "unfair proposals" to drop the case.
The statement came after Kingsgate announced that both litigants had jointly requested the arbitral tribunal to further hold its verdict until Jan 31 next year, as they were currently negotiating an agreement to settle the lawsuit. Major conditions on the settlement include allowing the company to reopen the Akara gold mine, which is run by its subsidiary company Akara Resources Pcl at Pichit and renewing the ore exploration licence on land in nearby Phitsanuloke's Noen Maprang district.
Lertsak Kamkongsak, Commoners Party Leader and the network's representative, said the government would be trading the environment and people's health by allowing the company to resume its gold mining operations. He pointed out that it was the government's mistake to exercise non-traditional absolute power under Article 44 of the Interim Charter to suspend the gold mining operation in 2016, which later triggered the international arbitration lawsuit between Kingsgate and the Thai government when the company brought the case to the Court of International Arbitration
Worse than that, the government did not prove the reason for the suspension of gold mining operations was because the gold mine had caused a severe impact on the environment and people's health, despite us having many academic pieces of evidence to support our claim," he said.
Mr Lertsak said the network will closely monitor the outcome of the case and if the government seeks to settle the lawsuit by agreeing to Kingsgate's terms, they will sue the PM in court.
Meanwhile, permanent secretary of the Ministry of Industry Kobchai Sangsitthisawat admitted the government is negotiating a settlement with Kingsgate, as it is normal procedure to mediate a dispute. Mr Kobchai insisted this does not mean that the Thai government will lose in court. He also assured that the government's legal team will negotiate while having the country's interests as its first priority.


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## finicky (9 November 2021)

Pretty sure that'll be more agitation from the same self-interested parties who have claimed to be representing communities. It seems obvious that the real communities want the mine to operate. The activists failed to determine the outcome before so it is likely a last gasp attempt to extract something for their personal benefit. And they'll need a lot of luck using a Thai court to sue the dictator.


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## UMike (9 November 2021)

They'll need more than luck.
Must admit in general the mine is very unpopular amongst the general population.


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## finicky (7 December 2021)

My best performer today and yesterday, not that the competition is all that great. 
Still less than halfway through the period of restraint conceded to the Thai government for a settlement to be signed (January 31)
For anyone reading this thread - if you ever get an opportunity to invest in Thailand, don't! 
For me it's in the same basket as PNG, Indonesia, Philippines, South Africa, Zimbabwe, China and Iraq

Chart has been strong for a few weeks but is very odd and not one I'd want to try to call.


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## UMike (8 December 2021)

Even Australia has issues with mining due to "Interest" Groups. See Coal/Gas.
Still there is way too much Govt interference. I can tell you there is alot of distrust in the mine by the common Thai people. Whether that is from the bad press or propaganda who know.

I still believe the company line that it is safe and spent a great deal of time and money educating and taking care of staff and the community.
Still got land and a family farming services business in the far east. Not so much an investment more an interest when I retire again.

disc: Still hold a far bit


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## finicky (3 January 2022)

Just an obligatory post from me about KCN as I have entered it once again in the yearly stock picking comp but really nothing has happened lately (that I know of) as we wait out the clock until January 31. That is the time limit agreed by the two parties for a settlement to be ratified. I do not have a lot of confidence that the Thai side will step up to the plate by then but I do have confidence that a settlement or tribunal decision will happen this year. Much of the anticipated outcome is built into the share price but a 50-100% improvement is my expectation fwiw.


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## finicky (12 January 2022)

Breaking out of a smashed looking cup and handle pattern to multi-year high. Hoping for a bit more b4 unloading a few.
Jan 31 looms and is supposed to be the deadline for the Junta to settle the claim. The final compromise date from KCN but who knows?

2 Yr Daily


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## sptrawler (12 January 2022)

Youve done well holding your nerve @finicky , kudos to you.


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## finicky (12 January 2022)

@sprawler thankyou mate. I don't think I'll hold them all through to the announcement of a settlement - too risky when dealing with the Junta. Might risk half on the outcome.


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## Sean K (12 January 2022)

finicky said:


> Breaking out of a smashed looking cup and handle pattern to multi-year high. Hoping for a bit more b4 unloading a few.
> Jan 31 looms and is supposed to be the deadline for the Junta to settle the claim. The final compromise date from KCN but who knows?




I think Mr Market is saying it's about 95% sure it will be in KCN's favour.


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## finicky (12 January 2022)

@Sean K - yep but might be an element of irrational fomo regarding the Jan 31 date. Better a bird in the hand in these doubtful times, I've been blowing too much cash on new gold speccies, need to rebuild the balance. Must check around to see if there's any goss on other social media.


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## UMike (12 January 2022)

Be careful about Goss.

Even I aren't interested in getting goss from my Thai contacts. They have been wrong (negative about the company) most the time.

Just holding to see what will happen.
disc - as previously mention I offloaded half in anticipation of bad new months ago left 6g on the table.


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## Sean K (19 January 2022)

I wonder if this is all factored in? Will be interesting to see.


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## finicky (19 January 2022)

Think so @Sean K - disappointing piece-meal settlement concessions coming out, I am torn btw selling or not selling a third Surprised there has not been a significant market reaction. Maybe I'm just fatigued with the continued feet dragging delay tactics from the Thais. After all, it's not the Jan 31 'deadline' yet and the critical part of the settlement has just been announced, viz: the grant of the 4 mining licences. More astute commentators than me seem to be high fiving.

One of the MLs is a newie and will allow the optimisation of a major pit, bringing more ore cheaply into play, which in turn will contribute to a new mining reserve to be announced soon. They aready have the mineral processing licence. They plan for the dual 2.5mtpa plants to be refurbished (= 5mtpa) but financing not yet done. Got a decent stockpile of ore. They are already recruiting more staff.
This following sentence in the announcement is frustrating to me. Apparently some negotiation elements still remain in confidence until conclusion - because what *are* the specific additional items - royalty and tax concessions? The Thai government is sure getting off the hook cheaply. Whine whine.



> "While some additional items are still under negotiation, the priority remains the re-opening of the mine."


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## brerwallabi (27 January 2022)

Akara Resources Plc, a gold mining company operating in the lower northern region, will be allowed to resume its mining operations if it can manage its operations in compliance with stricter requirements under the amended Minerals Act 2017, according to Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam.

Mr Wissanu said on Wednesday stricter requirements under the Minerals Act 2017 cover four vital issues: the environment, land management, community health and permission to use the land.

Mr Wissanu denied providing comments for a report that the Thai government has awarded four outstanding mining licences to Kingsgate Consolidated for another 10 years in exchange for a withdrawal of the lawsuit.


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## finicky (1 February 2022)

As suspected. No full deal from the Thais after we deferred the TAFTA tribunal's announcement of a decision for 1 month, then another 3 months at the behest of the Thai government. Yet the company is saying we continue to hold the option of the tribunal's judgement over the government. Obviously the Thais are not impressed. Very unclear explanation by KCN as to what "small number" of matters are still under negotiation with the crooks. No mention for instance of royalty or tax concessions. So far the Thais have conceded nothing that costs them a cent. Share price has been plunging for days on mostly higher volume.

Unemon's take on twitter, lol, Ross being our chairman, Jamie his gopher.
unemon
@unemon1
$KCN - Ross (the boss?) or Jamie (The ??) did it again .... what we've got from the Thais  - Empty suitcase of money.


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## Sean K (11 February 2022)

@finicky So, another delay for 12 months? HUH??


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## finicky (11 February 2022)

@Sean K , yeah sold out at market - except for 5,000 shares in case there's an attractive SPP down the track. Maybe I'm wrong but I just see the delays as concessions to the Thais made out of an awareness of weakness in our position. What's been going on with the delays and the piece-meal terms of settlement granted so far is nothing like we expected as an outcome, yet some are still painting an announcement like this as positive. They figure a continued suspension of the Tribunal's decision under TAFTA strengthens our hand in that the govt won't dare interfere with the company as it resumes operations and also it will work as reassurance to financiers. They might be right and I have fallen at the final hurdle - but phooey, my patience is worn out. Thailand - I wouldn't even holiday there let alone invest in anything there after this. I did pull a decent profit but nothing life changing that's for sure and I had to wait a decade or something to get it.


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## Sean K (11 February 2022)

finicky said:


> Thailand - I wouldn't even holiday there let alone invest in anything there after this.




I would still go back to the Krabi region and put Koh Lipe on the holiday list.


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## finicky (25 October 2022)

I've been hoping that a bullish falling wedge is maturing for KCN so that I get an opportunity to sell my last 5,000 shares and put the proceeds into a useful company like Codan (CDA) or South (S32) at their current low prices. However who knows? The transactions are pretty slow and there's only a feeble lead from the momentum indicators. Though today's price is encroaching on my best fit downtrend line - a plus.

Held
Sentiment: Sell

Daily with 50 dma


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## UMike (26 October 2022)

Got rid of half at around the $1.80....
Probably want more than that, but,  who knows.

When you think about it. $10,000 worth of KCN v $10,000 worth of S32 which would you rather have. Easy choice.


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## brerwallabi (26 October 2022)

Over the last few months phenomenal rain around Chatree mine it will have slowed up everything that was planned.
When your up to your knees in water when they say it’s not chit don’t believe them.


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## finicky (9 November 2022)

Up 5% early trading, albeit similar with other gold stocks
Current downtrend breached.


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## Sean K (9 November 2022)

finicky said:


> Up 5% early trading, albeit similar with other gold stocks
> Current downtrend breached.
> 
> View attachment 148969




There's a few gold charts looking pretty good at the moment. Perhaps the Bitcoin thing last night was the impetus for punters to give gold a chance. I'm not counting chickens yet, but am hopeful my long suffering gold colour coded stocks start to shine.


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## finicky (23 November 2022)

1.95  - still hanging in with my remnant for another 5c or so, then it's *goodbye* to Kingsgate and f'g Thailand and their evil junta, byzantine bureacracy and degenerate king *forever*

Don't go for Elliott Wave arcaneness but here's a cheerful scenario from Keith Goode:


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## UMike (31 December 2022)

UMike said:


> Got rid of half at around the $1.80....
> Probably want more than that, but,  who knows.
> 
> When you think about it. $10,000 worth of KCN v $10,000 worth of S32 which would you rather have. Easy choice.



IF only I bought the S32.

Looking to offload these @ anywhere over $2.25. Only cause I am losing patients. 1 /7/2023 will do.
If there is to be a tough time in the mkt and gold stocks do well then maybe KCN can capitalise. Been a very disappointing end of year for them imo.

Good enough to tip in the 2023 comp.


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## finicky (31 December 2022)

@UMike still holding my remnant - hoping to get $2 out of them. My patience is also at breaking point as I am following a view (Felix Zulauf, google his youtube vids) that Q1 could be bad and everything'll get hit including gold. Felix is very bullish gold stocks from 2024 as he is expecting a good 2023 recovery for general equities innU,S and Europe after the Q1 smash but after that something, e.g a bank crisis in CCP China will blow everything apart and gold will benefit from C.B loosening.
I know you didn't ask 

Hepd


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