# Martin Pring calls top in commodities



## wayneL (30 August 2006)

Check out this video:

http://www.pring.com/movieweb/commodity/commodity.html

Cheers


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## bunyip (30 August 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Check out this video:
> 
> http://www.pring.com/movieweb/commodity/commodity.html
> 
> Cheers




Wayne

According to Martin it sounds very much like we're on the verge of a financial meltdown. Sounds pretty good to me.....a bear market would present a smorgasboard of potentially profitable shorting opportunites.
Being a man who likes to play the short side yourself, Wayne, I don't think you'd mind a bear market either would you?

Bunyip


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## Magdoran (30 August 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Check out this video:
> 
> http://www.pring.com/movieweb/commodity/commodity.html
> 
> Cheers



Hello Wayne,


I studied Pring’s approach to T/A a few years back – he’s very much into macro market cycles, and as evident from this video commentary uses a range of oscillators and moving averages…  I tend to approach this aspect of his approach with a lot of caution, but his broader cyclical approach I think has some merit.  Interesting conclusions he is drawing about the prospect of a potential top in the commodity markets.

It is an ambiguous period for commodities; the recent falls in Unleaded and oil futures seems to have taken a lot of the inflationary pressures off in the short term.  What effect this will have on the wider commodity markets is unclear to me.  The problems with copper supply don’t seem to have had a discernable impact on the futures which raises some questions as to what’s really going on.

Pundits are commenting on the apparent slowdown of the US economy, and certainly there seems to be a cooling of the US housing market while interest rates have been raised by the FED.  Interestingly recent price action in the bond market has been rising (reducing the effective interest rate yield).

The recent price action in metals and energy futures could be distribution or accumulation.  I do agree that we are at the crossroads, and a resolution on several fronts may precipitate some strong moves.  So, I’m waiting with the finger on the trigger…

How about you Wayne?


Regards


Magdoran


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## TraderPro (30 August 2006)

Pring is heavily into technical analysis... (He's got some fantastic books on the subject) just like Nison is into Candlesticks... It'll be interesting if what he says will come true or not...

Thanks wayneL for the video link...


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## YOUNG_TRADER (30 August 2006)

Thanks Wayne,

Was an interesting video, I am quite weak on the tech side of analysis so I found that to be a good 'devils advocate' type info,


Have to admit, its been a good fight for the last few months between the Bulls n the Bears, I think we're nearing final round, before next direction, who will win? ? ?


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## noirua (30 August 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Check out this video:
> 
> http://www.pring.com/movieweb/commodity/commodity.html
> 
> Cheers




Very interesting video, thanks.  Will stick around 75% in cash.


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## noirua (30 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Thanks Wayne,
> 
> Was an interesting video, I am quite weak on the tech side of analysis so I found that to be a good 'devils advocate' type info,
> 
> ...




If it's the final round J_T then the contest is all but over. Still the worry on Iran, Bush must be very trigger happy by now, so who knows what comes next.


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## wayneL (30 August 2006)

Well my overriding sentiment (as you are all sick of hearing by now) is bearish on the world economy in the medium term.

I think it's obvious that we are heading into a deep recession sometime in the next year or three. This will pull down many of those markets that have been inflated by the ludicrous pump priming and credit expansion post 911 (which has largely been totally squandered by people pushing the price of houses up and MEWing to buy toys with)

The only thing I'm uberbullish on in the long term is oil. But sans the criminal Bush cabal making Iran glow a flourescent green in the dark, a recession will pull oil down temporarily as well. I am actually quite buillish on all physical commodities longer term... after the depression.

This is just a view and I would never underestimate the capacity of the Bilderberg  criminals to manipulate a different outcome over the short term... so I'm with Mag in being pragmatic as a trader, and just waiting for tradeable signals.

I'll go long no problem if the signal is there.


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## rederob (30 August 2006)

The only problem with Pring's analysis is that it is cyclically premature.
From May until August the metals complex is run down as producers use up inventory.  
From September they are back from holiday and maintenance closures and crank up their businesses.
If Pring was making this video mid-October I would be quitting commodity postions.
The other aspect of note is that until Wayne's world (gloabl meltdown) set in, the Asian juggernauts will buy just about any raw materials we can get to them.
So I am wedded to the commodity supercycle theory and if there is a big dip in the next year or so, I would be trying hard to pick a low point in order to accumulate better positions for the 10 years ahead.


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## Magdoran (30 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> The only problem with Pring's analysis is that it is cyclically premature.
> From May until August the metals complex is run down as producers use up inventory.
> From September they are back from holiday and maintenance closures and crank up their businesses.
> If Pring was making this video mid-October I would be quitting commodity postions.
> ...



Rob,


I tend to agree with you for the long term regarding commodities, short to medium term though, I’m watching the price action for any clues – I sense that any move out of here may be profitable to trade using heavily leveraged derivatives but with the best risk to reward characteristics that are available making the best use of IV.

I “buy” the idea of the “supercycle” to an extent, but because my time frame is shorter than yours, I’m looking to trade the swings, and you know how quickly a bearish move can motor down with quite some magnitude on panic moves (probably more in stocks than in commodities, commodities tend to rally up in panic at the prospect of short supply, so they trend differently).  Part of my strategy is to profit from the negative impact as much as the positive (an example is picking which sectors will be impaired by high oil prices, and look for the weakest stocks to short in these sectors).

However, your long term hypothesis certainly has merit, and I may well join you in going long oil as you suggest on the pull back with longer term strategies.

Regards


Magdoran


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## YOUNG_TRADER (30 August 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> The only thing I'm uberbullish on in the long term is oil. But sans the criminal Bush cabal making Iran glow a flourescent green in the dark, a recession will pull oil down temporarily as well. I am actually quite buillish on all physical commodities longer term... after the depression.




The only commodity I'm Super Bullish on for the next Billion + Years is SEX, its always been in demand and it always will be, supply will never ever catch up, so there will always be a shortage  :


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## wavepicker (30 August 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Check out this video:
> 
> http://www.pring.com/movieweb/commodity/commodity.html
> 
> Cheers




Thankyou for that link Wayne. I had never heard of martin pring before, he raises some very interesting and valid points. it really gels a lot with the cyclical picture I have been seeing within my own studies.

As to the depth of a collapse, well I must say I am not as bearish as yourself  but nevertheless bearish. 

Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds


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## wayneL (30 August 2006)

Yo

For those folk who have never heard of Pring, he has written several books-

http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1656&a=74

His books are getting good reviews

Cheers


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## rederob (5 September 2006)

Although it's a bit early in tonight's market, we have copper up 11cents so far, nickel up around $1000 (yes, that's 3 zeros), aluminium up 3cents and zinc up 7cents.
I won't get an LME update for a few hours, so I don't know if there was a big move in inventory, or if the funds have decided the market will tighten - and have got a very early start this quarter.
What the price movement does say is that equity-based commodity plays remain an excellent leveraged product - no need to play with dangerous cfds and volatile options to outsmart the market!
That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.


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## wayneL (5 September 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> ...and volatile options




options are less volatile than the underlying


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## wayneL (5 September 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Although it's a bit early in tonight's market, we have copper up 11cents so far, nickel up around $1000 (yes, that's 3 zeros), aluminium up 3cents and zinc up 7cents.
> I won't get an LME update for a few hours, so I don't know if there was a big move in inventory, or if the funds have decided the market will tighten - and have got a very early start this quarter.
> What the price movement does say is that equity-based commodity plays remain an excellent leveraged product - no need to play with dangerous cfds and volatile options to outsmart the market!
> That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.




Sorry for the pedancy, but yes the metals are popping alright


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## wayneL (5 September 2006)

This calls for a chart


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## rederob (5 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Sorry for the pedancy, but yes the metals are popping alright



Wayne
It's just a "definitional" thing.
Because we use the underlying's volatility as a measurement tool for valuing the option does not mean the option itself is not volatile.
In percentage terms the price movements of options can be considerable: I choose to call this "volatility" as well.

By the way, put up copper's chart tonight if you have it handy - and then see where it closes.


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## wayneL (5 September 2006)

Here's 15m copper. It's dynamic so it will update each time you open this page.. unfortunately 20 minutes delayed.

Cheers







<edit> Oh bugger, it won't show on the page because of the format. At least you can just click on it.


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## 2020hindsight (6 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> For those folk who have never heard of Pring, he has written several books-Cheers



Wayne I look forward to listening to these - maybe on the weekend - unless of course the wheels fall off before then.  Also (a personal problem) lately between the kids and I Ive been going through a fair bit of usage allowance (almost 1GB in a week) - so gotta take it easy.  Can I afford to watch it ? Can I afford NOT to watch it ? Will I understand it? or will it go straight over my head like the last one ??!?  these are the sorts of questions constantly nagging at my brain 

PS Thanks for all the hard work finding all this stuff.
PPS I also need a new dart board - the other one's worn out.  And now sheesh the monkey's gone on strike! :hide: 
2020
____________
Man who never made a mistake never made anything.


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## wayneL (6 September 2006)

2020hindsight said:
			
		

> Wayne I look forward to listening to these - maybe on the weekend - unless of course the wheels fall off before then.  Also (a personal problem) lately between the kids and I Ive been going through a fair bit of usage allowance (almost 1GB in a week) - so gotta take it easy.  Can I afford to watch it ? Can I afford NOT to watch it ? Will I understand it? or will it go straight over my head like the last one ??!?  these are the sorts of questions constantly nagging at my brain
> 
> PS Thanks for all the hard work finding all this stuff.
> PPS I also need a new dart board - the other one's worn out.  And now sheesh the monkey's gone on strike! :hide:
> ...




hehe funny guy!

Well it's like this. If commodities tank, Prings video will be looked upon as a timely trading signal, generously shared by a true market guru for the greater good of all.

If they don't, he'll just be another bozo chartist with a stinkin' oscillator that doesn't work.

Give the monkey a few more bananas would be my advise


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## swingstar (12 September 2006)

Not a Friday, but DJC has dropped below 166 today, down to 162.


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## rederob (28 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> hehe funny guy!
> 
> Well it's like this. If commodities tank, Prings video will be looked upon as a timely trading signal, generously shared by a true market guru for the greater good of all.
> 
> ...



With bananas at $10 a kilo and peanuts no better, I reckon we just throw rocks.
The major change since the last post here is that metal markets have tightened and prices continue to rise, albeit slightly.
Pring will be sent to sin bin for this unruly, ill-timed and grossly erroneous forecast!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 September 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> With bananas at $10 a kilo and peanuts no better, I reckon we just throw rocks.




lol, I'll try that next time I'm at the Zoo


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## rederob (21 October 2006)

I think the Pring thing is a ding aling.
Dead
Caput
Trot it out again some time in 2007 and see how it goes.


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## wayneL (21 October 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> I think the Pring thing is a ding aling.
> Dead
> Caput
> Trot it out again some time in 2007 and see how it goes.



ROFL

Not when you look beyond the narrow self interested confines of base metals.

The Index Pring was analyzing was the CRB cash commodity index. If you have a look at that index, you will see it was a great call. Not even the stellar run on grains has been able to boot it back into an uptrend.

Pring will be feeling smug right about now.

However, I should point out Pring works on longer time frames than a few weeks.

LOL


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## rederob (22 October 2006)

Pring's charts were of the "Spot Raw Industrials" and "CRB Composite".
It seems there are many versions of CRB charts, and frankly I am no expert.
So attached are 2 charts, plus CRB data for this calendar year.
None of these data suggest Pring's call was on the money.


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