# Posting my trades on charts: Open to discussion and ideas



## Jens (26 April 2015)

G'day all.
I am going to post my trades (charts with comments), in an attempt to keep myself on my toes and hopefully avoid those "this could work" trades, taken out of pure boredom 
I would like to invite Your comments or ideas.
My aim is, that we all learn something.
My main time frame is 15min, but I refer to 1hr or larger for trend or support/resistance.
The only indicator I use, is simple MAs: 25, 100 & 300 prioritised in that order. I like to keep it simple.
No matter how good or bad this turns out, I will never attempt to sell You anything and I am not affiliated with anyone either. Just wanted to clear that up, as that seems to be a concern with some other threads. I am just a private person sitting at home, doing my thing.
Wish me luck


----------



## Jens (26 April 2015)

*Re: Posting my trades on charts. Open to discussion and ideas.*






Here is a setup I was looking at on Friday. Red = 25MA    Blue = 100MA
I like it, when red MA is really steep and the price bars finds support on this MA


----------



## NickF (27 April 2015)

*Re: Posting my trades on charts. Open to discussion and ideas.*



Jens said:


> View attachment 62386
> View attachment 62387
> View attachment 62388
> 
> ...




Hi Jens,

I wish you good luck. If you need answers to your questions, please feel free to ask me 
The three graphs you posted look quite similar to me. 
Maybe you should indicate at what price you intend to buy and what are your limits and stop losses. And what is your expected hold interval? I would guess that SMA respond quite slowly, so the signals may be useful for longer intervals. 
I have problems finding what happens next minute, I don't know how would you expect to know what will happen in three days or a week 

Nick


----------



## Jens (27 April 2015)

*Re: Posting my trades on charts. Open to discussion and ideas.*



NickF said:


> Hi Jens,
> 
> I wish you good luck. If you need answers to your questions, please feel free to ask me
> The three graphs you posted look quite similar to me.
> ...




Hi Nick. Thank you for your comments. Any feedback is appreciated. Yes, the 3 charts are similar. It is the same pair at 3 different times. Not quite clear what I am looking at? I shall make an attempt to rectify that in future posts. I will post entry, SL and TP for the trades I actually take. The best trades are completed very quickly. Sometimes, it might take a few hours. The SMA might respond slowly, but I would not base a longer timeframed trade on it - unless I am trading off a larger time frame as well. I find, that most of the time, I only get one or so good setups per day.


----------



## Jens (28 April 2015)

Well, that was a boring day! Nothing suitable showed up on my screen. There is always a day tomorrow  :sleeping:


----------



## T0BY (28 April 2015)

Looks good, I like the simple chart template. Trading off the 15 minute charts with pairs like cable - beginning of London session is alright but can be a long night if you stick around until end of New York. Have you thought about pending stop orders above /below swings, perhaps only during times when economic calender is quiet?


----------



## tech/a (28 April 2015)

*This is terrible.
A one way ticket to ruin*.

Its an MA of a data set.
It doesn't hold support for anything.
Its just a coincidence that price followed it in this example.


----------



## Jens (28 April 2015)

T0BY said:


> Looks good, I like the simple chart template. Trading off the 15 minute charts with pairs like cable - beginning of London session is alright but can be a long night if you stick around until end of New York. Have you thought about pending stop orders above /below swings, perhaps only during times when economic calender is quiet?




Thanks for the comments. I usually finish up around midnight and I do usually use pending orders.


----------



## Jens (28 April 2015)

tech/a said:


> *This is terrible.
> A one way ticket to ruin*.
> 
> Its an MA of a data set.
> ...




Hi there. I know what you are saying. It does not work every time. Each set up must be analysed on an individual basis.


----------



## tech/a (28 April 2015)

Jens said:


> Hi there. I know what you are saying. It does not work every time. Each set up must be analysed on an individual basis.




So how then do you determine which signal to trade?


----------



## Jens (28 April 2015)

tech/a said:


> So how then do you determine which signal to trade?




Hopefully I will be able to explain that as I post trades. Nothing today so far


----------



## Jens (30 April 2015)

I took two trades tonight. I have the charts ready to be posted, but I am unable to attach them right now.
Please check back tomorrow


----------



## tech/a (30 April 2015)

Jens said:


> I took two trades tonight. I have the charts ready to be posted, but I am unable to attach them right now.
> Please check back tomorrow




Hind site charts have no value
Can be easily fudged
Realtime charts have value --- you can't cheat.
Did a lot myself on this thread

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26509&page=218


----------



## Jens (1 May 2015)

This thread might be coming to and end a bit earlier than planned.
I am simply not able to attach any charts


----------



## tech/a (1 May 2015)

Jens said:


> This thread might be coming to and end a bit earlier than planned.
> I am simply not able to attach any charts




Take a Photo of the chart.
Save it and attach it through the menu
in manage attachments below.


----------



## Jens (1 May 2015)

tech/a said:


> Take a Photo of the chart.
> Save it and attach it through the menu
> in manage attachments below.




That is what I am attempting


----------



## tech/a (1 May 2015)

How did you load the charts above?


----------



## Jens (3 May 2015)

Apparently I had to use a different internet browser.
Here is a trade from earlier in the week

The bottom 3 charts is the progress of one trade, with screen shots taken while the trade was live


----------



## PPC NO 1 (3 May 2015)

Nice trade, Jens.

(Ronny from meetup)


----------



## peter2 (3 May 2015)

It's a winning trade, so that's good, but is it a good trade? 
That depends on the trading plans of the poster. Was the setup perfect? Was the position sized correctly? Did they follow their trade management guidelines? We need to know lots of things before we can judge if it's a good trade or not. 

IMO Jens shouldn't care what others think about his/her trading. Jens should be judging his/her own performance. I'd like to see what Jens thinks after every trade is posted. I want to see completed trades rated at least 9/10 including winning and losing trades.

I can be critical of the risk/reward that I see it the trade. The risk was approx 22pips. The reward was (0.5*10) +(0.5*22) = 16pips. This RR needs a W% of 58% to break-even and 70% for a modest (0.2) edge. Is the trader that good? I doubt it.

Starting trades with small risk sizes before major news is a losing strategy. Don't do it. 

I'd like to see the trader trade one or two setups only, multiple times and comment on his/her trade management after the entry.  I like to see consistency in every aspect from the trader. 

Posting is a good opportunity to show what you know and ask about what you don't. Even the frequency of the posts should be consistent. Is the trader trading every evening? If so, there should be both winning and losing trades every evening. Don't select an occasional winning trade and post it.  

Jens, it's up to you to make the most from this thread you've started.


----------



## PPC NO 1 (3 May 2015)

peter2 said:


> It's a winning trade, so that's good, but is it a good trade?
> That depends on the trading plans of the poster. Was the setup perfect? Was the position sized correctly? Did they follow their trade management guidelines? We need to know lots of things before we can judge if it's a good trade or not.
> 
> IMO Jens shouldn't care what others think about his/her trading. Jens should be judging his/her own performance. I'd like to see what Jens thinks after every trade is posted. I want to see completed trades rated at least 9/10 including winning and losing trades.
> ...




Hi Peter
I've been trading forex for around 3 years (still a struggling trader) and I'm embarrassed to say that I didn't know exactly how to calculate the reward in pips if there were 2 target profits. So thank you for sharing your tips. I have one more question. Can you please show me how you calculate the minimum W% required just to get to BE? Thank you, Peter.


----------



## peter2 (4 May 2015)

It starts with the basic calculation of expectancy (or edge). 

Expectancy = (W% * AW) - (L% * AL) 

W% is % winning trades, L% is % losing trades, AW is average win, AL is average loss

Re-arranging the formula results in this; 

W% = (1+E) / (1 + AW/AL) 

At break-even our E = 0 and if our AW/AL = 16/22 = 0.73

The W% required to BE is 1 / 1.73 = 0.578 or 58%

-------------------------------------------------------------
The W% required to make 0.2 (20% of every dollar risked) with the same AW/AL (0.73) is:

W% = (1+0.2) / (1+0.73) = 0.693 or 69% 
---------------------------------------------------------------

All new traders should start with goals of trying to get their AW/AL as high as they can (at least >2/1). Then look at their W% and try to improve that. It's been my experience that it's easier to improve my edge by allowing the average AW/AL to get bigger. 

ps: My apologies to the maths purists if my algebra isn't exactly correct.


----------



## Jens (6 May 2015)

No trades on Monday. Two trades last night. One good and one bad. End result BE


----------



## AussieMatt (6 May 2015)

Jens said:


> No trades on Monday. Two trades last night. One good and one bad. End result BE
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hey jens, just a few ideas on the first trade. price is consolidating and the Bearish outside bar is being played from a support/resistance flip of the midpoint of consolidation. If that is the idea (that support is flipping) you could have gotten out of this with a smaller loss in my opinion. If I were to play a midpoint like this I would be more aggressive with managing risk as opposed to playing a breakout of a range where you have the entire consolidation to your back and a stronger case for it to hold.


----------



## Jens (6 May 2015)

AussieMatt said:


> Hey jens, just a few ideas on the first trade. price is consolidating and the Bearish outside bar is being played from a support/resistance flip of the midpoint of consolidation. If that is the idea (that support is flipping) you could have gotten out of this with a smaller loss in my opinion. If I were to play a midpoint like this I would be more aggressive with managing risk as opposed to playing a breakout of a range where you have the entire consolidation to your back and a stronger case for it to hold.




I totally agree and appreciate your feedback


----------



## Jens (6 May 2015)

I can be critical of the risk/reward that I see it the trade. The risk was approx 22pips. The reward was (0.5*10) +(0.5*22) = 16pips. This RR needs a W% of 58% to break-even and 70% for a modest (0.2) edge. Is the trader that good? I doubt it.

My risk/reward is often 1:1  That probably will make some of you :frown:

Posting is a good opportunity to show what you know and ask about what you don't. Even the frequency of the posts should be consistent. Is the trader trading every evening? If so, there should be both winning and losing trades every evening. Don't select an occasional winning trade and post it.  

I watch the market, but it is not everyday that I actually end up taking a trade.
I intend to post all my trades.


----------



## Jens (6 May 2015)

A trade from within the last 1-2 hours


----------



## Jens (8 May 2015)

My trade from yesterday


----------



## Jens (8 May 2015)

My trade from this morning


----------



## Jens (8 May 2015)

Jens said:


> My trade from this morning




I forgot to mark my entry on the chart above


----------



## peter2 (10 May 2015)

Hi Jens, I notice that your entry and iSL prices are wrong. I'm trying to check if you really are going for 1:1. 
No evidence of that yet.


----------



## Jens (10 May 2015)

peter2 said:


> Hi Jens, I notice that your entry and iSL prices are wrong. I'm trying to check if you really are going for 1:1.
> No evidence of that yet.




That was a typo on the GBPAUD, sorry

Entry 1.9536
SL 1.9495


----------



## Jens (12 May 2015)

Trade from Monday night 11 May 2015 - my only trade so far this week


----------



## Jens (15 May 2015)

A trade from last night (Thursday). This is my 2nd trade for the week.


----------



## peter2 (15 May 2015)

Nice analysis using the range. You framed a solid setup and reasonable R:R. However you didn't allow your trade to get to your target. 

I hope you are keeping notes of how many times you're being hit when you move your stop up to BE on the remaining parcel. After 20 - 30 trades you will know if moving the stop up quickly is costing you money.


----------



## Jens (17 May 2015)

peter2 said:


> Nice analysis using the range. You framed a solid setup and reasonable R:R. However you didn't allow your trade to get to your target.
> 
> I hope you are keeping notes of how many times you're being hit when you move your stop up to BE on the remaining parcel. After 20 - 30 trades you will know if moving the stop up quickly is costing you money.




I went through a period where I was struggling to get to my TP and a profit turned into a loss too many times.
At the moment I am trying to play it safe.


----------



## cynic (18 May 2015)

peter2 said:


> Nice analysis using the range. You framed a solid setup and reasonable R:R. However you didn't allow your trade to get to your target.
> 
> I hope you are keeping notes of how many times you're being hit when you move your stop up to BE on the remaining parcel. After 20 - 30 trades you will know if moving the stop up quickly is costing you money.




If Jens was trading a more transparent market, I'd be inclined to agree with you.

However, after years of experience trading synthetic instruments, I've observed pricing behaviours that strongly suggested my conditional orders were influencing the price action!!!

When people express the intention to trade synthetic market instruments (i.e. OTC CFDs and Forex currency pairs) I generally encourage them to avoid placement of stop orders. Instead, I suggest they actively monitor their positions with a view to manually exiting upon breach of their predetermined SL level.


----------



## Jens (19 May 2015)

My trade from last night


----------



## skyQuake (19 May 2015)

Jens said:


> My trade from last night
> View attachment 62640




That GBPUSD trade - are you scalping or holding for bigger moves?

And my 2c: You're judging the trade by the result - should have held/sold for x etc
When you should judge it by your adhesion to your initial plan.


----------



## Jens (20 May 2015)

skyQuake said:


> That GBPUSD trade - are you scalping or holding for bigger moves?
> 
> And my 2c: You're judging the trade by the result - should have held/sold for x etc
> When you should judge it by your adhesion to your initial plan.




Hi there
My trades will generally get me anything from 5-50 pips (mostly at the low end).
I will start to scale out, based on the behaviour at the time and where the support/resistance levels are.
I do prefer to be in and out quickly, otherwise I will generally start to question the validity of my initial setup.
I missed the fast moves last night, which "should have" gained more pips.


----------



## Jens (22 May 2015)

A trade from earlier this week


----------



## Jens (27 May 2015)

I took only two trades last week, which have been posted.
Monday was very quiet, due to OS holidays.
One trade yesterday:


----------



## Jens (27 May 2015)

A trade from today


----------

