# Best Bank For The Long Haul



## JTLP (10 June 2008)

Hi Everybody! Hi Doctor Nick!

Just throwing it out there...but which bank/banks do people view as better/more favourable to invest in for the long haul?

Take ANZ for example...i know they have quite a sum of money for Provisions for Bad Debts...so to me thats a clear indicator of steer clear (but to me only! DYOR)!

NAB have some UK assets. Again, not favourable to me...with all the recent sub-prime happenings.

CBA have a stake in Centro no? I'd assume that will leave a dent in their final figures...

So in people's views, which bank do you think will outpeform the others in year's to come? 

Shanks


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## Sean K (10 June 2008)

Good thread for the long term investors out there JTLP. Might be a bit early to be jumping in IMO, but the dust will settle one day. 

Lonsec thinks it would be WBC and CBA as they biased towards Retail Banking (rather than Corporate Banking like ANZ and NAB), have solid retail deposit bases (cheapest form of capital) and are well positioned in the Australian Wealth Management (Superannuation) sector. 

Still quite a bit of dust flying about the place though. Just when it settles is anyone's guess.


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## rub92me (10 June 2008)

Right now I would choose the good old piggy bank :. Like Kennas I think we may see a bit more pain in the financial sector. When I look at the charts for the big 4 banks I don't exactly get good vibes. All we (don't) need is one of them stating that they have a bit more of a collaterised debt issue than previously thought and need to write off a few billion.


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## mapna (10 June 2008)

I reckon the most potential for M/term or long term is MQG ... This one has more investors/Inst. support amongst the sector itself.

CBA is my 2nd on the list 

Once the sector is down, yes they all drag together down but when the market is strong, CBA and MQG are the ones most push up ...

Anyway, IMHO and DYOR ....


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## JTLP (10 June 2008)

kennas said:


> Good thread for the long term investors out there JTLP. Might be a bit early to be jumping in IMO, but the dust will settle one day.
> 
> Lonsec thinks it would be WBC and CBA as they biased towards Retail Banking (rather than Corporate Banking like ANZ and NAB), have solid retail deposit bases (cheapest form of capital) and are well positioned in the Australian Wealth Management (Superannuation) sector.
> 
> Still quite a bit of dust flying about the place though. Just when it settles is anyone's guess.




Thanks Kennas...i always have been biased towards CBA. Didn't look at WBC much. 

Yes it's true, i'm not jumping the gun before the dust settles. Could be a few more months/even years before that happens. 

Maybe all that XAO analysis and 4800 might be a good time for myself to dip my little honeypot fingers...


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## Viginti (10 June 2008)

JTLP said:


> NAB have some UK assets. Again, not favourable to me...with all the recent sub-prime happenings.




Also got exposure in US, which has burnt them before - anyone recall Homeside??  Exactly!!    They have also been relatively quiet re any exposure to sub-prime/bad debts/etc, so not sure how this will play out.

CBA have always had the scale, but this wont help much when customers run out here domestically, and I have not seen much of a play from CommBank elsewhere in the world.

WBC - wait until the dust settles on SGB.  This will keep them busy for a little while...

ANZ - well yes, large provisions but this has already been taken out of profit figures, so unless they have underestimated the total cost then this should have no further impact on bottom line.  Strategically they have made strongest move into Asia, but can they pull it off??  If this comes off then ANZ may be the one to watch.

But remember, this is all IMHO....


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## wildkactus (10 June 2008)

The two that I have been looking at lately are BEN & BOQ, 

BEN has had a rally of late but BOQ seams to be stuck in a sideways move.
they both could be a play if the big four become unstable.


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## Julia (10 June 2008)

mapna said:


> I reckon the most potential for M/term or long term is MQG ... This one has more investors/Inst. support amongst the sector itself.
> 
> CBA is my 2nd on the list
> 
> ...



I don't think you can compare CBA and MQG.  Completely different types of operations.


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## AnDy62 (13 June 2008)

Piggy bank sure looks the best given current prices, ANZ under $19, gee!! It's a seller's market that's for sure, it would be a brave man to wade in now


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## Sean K (13 June 2008)

If BNB goes bust, all the retail banks will suffer, or at least the one's with exposure. I think most of them will have some.

Any idea who has the most exposure to their 'assets'. 

The negative sentiment from BNB is sure to cause MQG some trouble, and since they realy of the investment flow, who's to say how they will end up.

The two combined will cause some serious issues for the retailers.


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