# SEA - Sundance Energy Australia



## wipz (2 October 2007)

Hi guys, 

Todays announcement:

"US$46.35 million (A$52m.) assets sale leaves Sundance debt free with substantial cash reserves"

Any idea what is on the cards for sundance in the near future.  Not too sure on what they will do now they have sold their US interests..

Anyone else on this stock who can offer some insite.  Cheers


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## wipz (2 October 2007)

Spoke too soon, company has released an announcement re: a presentation to investors.. They still have interests in a few locations in US (Indiana) and some Aus (SA & QLD) interests as well.  Spudding well at Buffalo Creek shortly (US),  a substantial drilling program for Whiskey Run planned for 2008 (US) and target in SA about to be spudded.   With the cash from sale of interests, should be pretty full on the next 12 months for SEA.  Any one else with any opinions / comments on this company.  Cheers


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## moneymajix (2 October 2007)

Hi W

I found this post on another forum.

Might be a conversation starter re the stock.




> Sold 10% of the assets for $ 55 millions. That puts the company value @ over 4 times the current value. The market looks bit sleepy today. IMO, DYOR.




Current sp - 66c, up 18% (high of 69c today)


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## ceegee (2 October 2007)

Another thing that may be interesting, one of the leases to be explored is in the Cooper Basin, PEL 100. Which seems tobe adjacent to Innamincka Petroleums recent discovery in Pel 101. Check the INP thread to see the result of that find on the share price.
C:


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## moneymajix (2 October 2007)

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070918/30/1eiy9.html


The company holds stakes in five other US oil and gas prospects across about 275.18 square kilometres, including 100 per cent of its Phoenix prospect in North Dakota and about 50 per cent of its three prospects in Indiana.

"We'll retain interest in about six to eight producing wells and have four in Indiana being prepared for production and a couple more in North Dakota being readied for drilling," Mr McCoy said.

The company has a 23 per cent interest in a project in South Australia's Cooper Basin, where project operator *Stuart Petroleum *will drill the Cleansweep 1 Well in coming weeks.



http://www.stuartpetroleum.com.au/

STU

Stuart Petroleum is a specialist Cooper Basin explorer which was formed in 1999.  Stuart's first oil discovery was in April 2002 with first production commencing in July of the same year. Stuart's drilling success and increased production through this success has seen Stuart grow to become the largest junior oil producer in the South Australian Cooper Basin.


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## moneymajix (5 October 2007)

Share price closed at 62c


borrowed from elsewhere...


http://www.pesa.com.au/publications/pesa_news/april_05/images/southaust/fig-2.jpg


INPs find was in PEL103, SEA have interests in PEL100 & PEL88


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## wipz (12 October 2007)

Announcement today "STU: Daily Drilling Report - Cleansweep 1 Exploration Well"

Cleansweep 1 is currently being rigged up and will spud later today.


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## moneymajix (1 November 2007)

53c

Ann.

*CLEANSWEEP 1 OIL SHOWS*

South Australian based oil exploration and production Company, Stuart Petroleum
Limited (ASX Code: STU) today announced that the Cleansweep 1 exploration well has
drilled into the basal Birkhead Formation where oil fluorescence and cut was observed
over the interval 2128 -2133.5 metres.
The oil shows were accompanied by minor oil in the drilling mud and elevated gas
readings of 300 units on a background of 10 units.
Current operations are preparing to run Drill Stem Test 1 over the interval 2120 – 2133.5
metres.
Cleansweep 1 is targeting un-risked mean oil in place potential of 4.8 million barrels in
the Birkhead/Hutton, Poolowanna and Paning formations. Stuart is paying 100% of the
cost of the well to obtain a 50% interest in PEL 100.


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## wipz (1 November 2007)

Thanks moneymajix, SEA had fooled me by releasing first a drilling report, I didnt expect that announcement to come today!!
I have faith in Cleansweep, that is why I will hold.  I think SEA is under the radar, I hope some more investers become interested in SEA.  They are totally cashed up and have some exciting tenements.

Cheers


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## wipz (6 November 2007)

Announcement today (06/11/07):

*CLEANSWEEP NEW OILFIELD DISCOVERY *

The JV with STU have hit oil in PEL 100, 400 barrels per day (23.33% net to SEA).
Quite significate as this is the first discovery in the licence area.  

I hope good times ahead as they drill more holes! Holding tight.

Also link to Cleansweep 1 in Scandinavian Oil & Gas mag:

http://www.scandoil.com/moxie-bm2/oil/exploration/cleansweep-1-discovers-oil-shows.shtml

Cheers.


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## moneymajix (7 January 2008)

Energy (SEA) is a company with oil and gas assets in Australia and the USA.


Just listed in the AFR Smart Money section - 20 stocks to watch in 2008.


Current sp - 46.5c.


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## moneymajix (7 January 2008)

50c

Up 11.111% today

Publicity in AFR looks like it has assisted this stock today.

Was not long ago in the 60s.


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## moneymajix (7 January 2008)

*51.5c*, up nearly 15%

Quite impressive on a down day.

Not much for sale.

Good to see some action in this stock.



*Phoenix Prospect*

The Phoenix Prospect is located in the centre of the Williston Basin in McKenzie County, North
Dakota, USA. At the time of its acquisition, the Phoenix Prospect was approximately 12,000 acres.
Today it is comprised of approximately 15,000 acres with an additional 5,700 acres pending
governmental approval.

The northwest corner of the prospect is located immediately southeast of the Blue Buttes Unit, a
Mission Canyon producing field, operated by Hess Corporation. This prospect's primary target
formation is the oil-bearing Bakken Shale; secondary target horizons include the oil-bearing Mission
Canyon, Nisku, Duperow and Red River formations. Since the acquisition of the Phoenix Prospect in
early 2007, the area surrounding it has seen increased exploration activity in the Bakken formation by
operators such as Continental Resources, Conoco Phillips, Headington Oil and Gas, Hess Corporation
and Helis. The preliminary results from these wells have been very encouraging with initial production
levels at or above accepted type curve for the prospect area.

Helis has already drilled and completed the Levang 3-22H, a horizontal Bakken well in which
Sundance has a working interest of approximately 3.28% (see the Company's web site and recent
Annual and Quarterly Activities Reports). The Levang well is sited adjacent to sections in which
Sundance is the primary mineral rights owner (which sections are included in the agreement), and
included a core of the Bakken shale as well as an extensive suite of logs. The important science
produced from this well will support the Company's ongoing geological and geophysical studies in
and around this prospect area, and will help it and Helis to evaluate future drill sites and design
appropriate drilling and completion techniques to maximize well performance in the prospect area.
Additionally, Helis has also drilled, and is in the process of completing, the Linseth 4-8H well, another
horizontal Bakken well in which Sundance does not own an interest.

The agreement was executed on 13, December.


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## moneymajix (1 February 2008)

01 Feb 2008 11:29 !   

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080201/pdf/3177v2d7yxhkkw.pdf

*CLEANSWEEP OILFIELD COMMENCES PRODUCTION*

South Australian based oil exploration and production Company, Stuart Petroleum Limited (ASX Code:STU) today announced that the Cleansweep Oilfield has commenced production and is online at an initial rate of 120 barrels of oil per day.

41c.


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## moneymajix (14 May 2008)

Acorn Capital Ltd increased its interest in Sundance Energy
Australia Ltd on May 6 from 12 million (7.8pc) to 16.3 million shares (9.5pc).



36c.


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## condog (3 February 2010)

Hi I bought this little baby today.... has lots and lots of positives going for it IMO

It has substantial acerage in tha newest shale hotspot in the US which is quickly becoming as interesting as Eagle Ford.....  The Bakken in Nth Dokota...

The primary difference is the condensat to gas ratio is significantly higher and the drilling costs are significantly lower





Another huge postivie is the company is net cash flow positive with no debt....
They will earn approx 7m p.a at present which looks to be possible increasing rapidly and yet it has a market cap of just $20M and substantial assets of very high class...

I will post more in here soon...

On my calcs and IMO this little undiscovered Gem is very undervalued.....

Looking at its graph , there are some long term holders who have unfortunately suffered, but right now, based on the current situation and buy price it looks very very good indeed IMO

Disc - I do own, may trade and DYOR + Seek expert advice....


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## condog (6 February 2010)

Hess plans to invest 25% of its 4 Billion exploration budget in the Bakken Shale....highlighting the significance of the Bakken as the next new hotpot for onshore US shale oil... 







> plans to invest about $1 billion per year over the next five years in the Bakken Shale in North Dakota with goals of boosting production from 10,000 boe/d today to 80,000 boe/d by 2015. Hess plans to ramp up to a 10-rig drilling program in the Bakken over the next 18 months and test dual-lateral horizontal wells targeting Middle Bakken and Three Forks/Sanish deposits. The firm maintains it has sufficient near-term Bakken pipeline capacity and infrastructure, but we'll watch this closely given constraints in the region


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## condog (6 February 2010)

Fom the age dot com in may 2009
Shows the underlying value of the Bakken assets...
If sundance can negotiate a successfull farm in partner to unlock this value by carryinga drilling program, they will IMO substantially appreciate...

Bear in mind as well SEA sp was at 10c a year ago when this announcment was made...they have significantly more income and assets since then, virtually same no of  shares and are still at 10c...At that time they had annual production of only $2m comparred to approx $7m now....market cap was around $21M and is still $21 M



> independent petroleum reserve certifier quantified the junior oil and gas explorer's assets in South Dakota, United States.
> 
> Ryder Scott said proven reserves in Sundance's Phoenix and South Antelope prospects amount to 3.411 million barrels of oil equivalent, based on US Energy Information Administration oil and gas price forecasts.
> 
> ...




Since this date SEA has had several producing wells come online, entered significant JV,s sold assets....

Below is a comparison from Investor Presntation dated 4th Dec 2009 of SEA to its peers... clearly indicating IMO its value to price...You will see that SEA has more production revenue then some companies valued at 15 - 20 times the market cap...but DYOR and seek ept advice.... these figures are 12 months old....



DYOR and seek expert advice, but IMHO this is significantly undervalued.... right now i envisage an sp ofmuch higher would be more realistic.... at presnt its operating at around a pe of 2 for a debt free net cash flow positive producer with significant assets in producing zones...  seems IMO a bit rediculous...


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## condog (7 February 2010)

From most recent SEA quarterly cash flow report dated 31 Dec 2009

Revenue from sales  = 1,937,000 for the quarter and 2,927,000 for the 6 months indicating revenue is strong and climbing

Admin and production costs ad up to around 938,000 for the Q

Leaving net (no expl or dev) earnings of approx $1m per quarter and rising
= approx $4m per annum and rising... 

They raised 2.36M from shares and ops for the Q
They started quarter with 3,509,000 and finished with 5,600,000  which equates to a net loss of only 269,000 despite spending 1.5m on development and exploration.....

Given the above SEA , IMHO is in a very good position going forward with good cash flows to fund operations, explorations and development, with 0 debt and very irregualrly hitting up shareholders for additional capital or diluting through institutional offers...

And these figures do not allow for Boomerang which is now showing excellent figures, and with another 6 of the 17 wells to spud early in Q2..note many are small Working interests, but also many are free carried


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## condog (11 February 2010)

It would seem some folks are discovering this little baby, bith better volumes and higher prices of late....

DYOR and seek expert advice, but in my opinion worth doing your own analysis on....

I own - but not enough yet


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## condog (15 February 2010)

Apparantly Euroz Securities have upgraded SEA toa buy with a 20c target...i cannot confirm the accuracey of this , its from HC on 12feb 2010

But i can say on my calcs thats probably a conservative target.....

Definitely DYOR and seek advice this is a small oiler & is high risk IMO, but likely high reward if things continue as they have been lately...


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## condog (17 February 2010)

Hi guys a few weeks ago i said this was under value based on my calcs and IMO it still is....however its up 30% from then (at 10c) be aware of possible??? retracement prior to possibly going  higher???

Since then Euroz have its target at 20c, my 12 month target is higher then euroz but my immediate target is a bit lower..... just be aware its 30% higher in a couple of weeks, rightly so, but can it sustain it in such a short period of time?


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## tunrida (17 February 2010)

DMOR condog and I like:
options held by MacQ bank with ex price of 38c+
small no shares total - 172m, and book value of 24c
quick ratio of 7+
nice buyer depth - but think those back at 10-11c are optimists


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## condog (17 February 2010)

Agreed tunrida

Also todays announcment on increase production amounts to an extra half million net revenue per annum approx on a $25m mcap stock....at PE of 10 adds another almost 3c per share to valuation on my calcs...


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## condog (17 February 2010)

Any esperienced chartist got one happeining on this with an opinion...ta.

Hit 15.5c up almost 50% in two weeks...


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## Sean K (17 February 2010)

On the 3 yr, clear bottom at 5c ish and a couple of higher highs before some nice consolidation. 10c formed up as very good support and springboard for further gains. Major resistance around 17c ish.

1 yr, you'd expect significant resistance around 17c (of course) and hopefully consolidation above 12-13 ish to use as support to break through. Good volume increase supporting the recent break up.


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## condog (19 February 2010)

Thanks Kennas

Its having no probs consistentanlty hitting 15.5 and 16c today.

From a funnymentals (for a speccy) all looks good for the 20c as in analysts reports quoted earlier.

With its doubling announcment this week added 3c + its no surpirses.


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## condog (22 February 2010)

Kennas you where spot on with its resistance, no let see how you go with the support and breakout.


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## Sean K (22 February 2010)

condog said:


> Kennas you where spot on with its resistance, no let see how you go with the support and breakout.



Still some water to flow under the bridge, condog. Could steady around the 17 zone for a bit before a retrace and bounce off the support area, but the 17 area will still be hard. Not sure what fundamentals will push it through. While it stays over 12 cents looks bullish, but a break down sends caution. Through 17c on volume and there's a good probability of 28-30c ish next major resistance on the way back up. .


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## condog (1 March 2010)

Hit 19c today kennas , up 90% in a month.  Nice little profit, but bummed i only had a relatively small parcel.

Im now out and looking for reentry, might not get it. But profit in pocket is always safe.


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## Mofra (2 March 2010)

Interesting stock for those that take a longer term view. ~27k BOE produced Q4 09, reads nicely inconjunction with 17/02 ann of Chase Well increasing production from 33 to 70 BOpd.

Slow steady production increases could fundamentally underpin prices during further drilling - don't hold but on the watchlist.

Cashflow position based on 29/01 anns seem to be fairly favourable as well for a junior explorer.


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## xinyu09 (2 March 2010)

SEA Sp rise and BEACH SP down, hmm is there a relationship? Oh well, I guess there isn't  Anyway, Good luck to shareholders!


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## condog (2 March 2010)

xinyu09 said:


> SEA Sp rise and BEACH SP down, hmm is there a relationship? Oh well, I guess there isn't  Anyway, Good luck to shareholders!




The beach deal is only one very small part of the business. 

Todays investor presentation is a great snapshot for those interested. 50 more wells in 2010 to be drilled. Some high %, some low % interest. But all in very high class paddocks.


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## Synergy (2 March 2010)

Great presentation today. I'm not here for the fundamentals but i'm more than happy to read things like that. Still holding its trend very nicely with interest starting to build it seems. I'm happy for it to continue tracking the way it is, but if it wants to break out to the high side I'm not going to be too disapointed either.


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## Mofra (4 March 2010)

Doji reversal on candles with trend broken, will be interesting to see if the 15c support level holds. If so it could represent an entry point.


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## wanlad1 (12 March 2010)

*Audio Broad cast for SEA*

SEA looks ready for a bounce this audio posted today, check through recent anns and will find an updated presentation

http://www.brr.com.au/event/64467


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## condog (12 March 2010)

All i will say is DYOR and spend some spare time researching SEA before it hist a higher price.ITs all up to you and your broker, adviser, but SEA is well worth consdering.

They have 50 wells in 2010, ranging from 1.5% interst to 81.25% interest?

They have cash flow 5 times some of there peers who have less upside and 5 times the market cap, eg: AZZ. 

Do your self a favour and do some research on them. Im not advoacating you buy, but i am suggesting you check them out.

another huge benefit unlike many of thier peers they have 93% oil and less then 7% gas. Gas prices are falling, oil seems to be rising.

disc - i hold, will trade and hope to profit. so DYOR and be responsible.


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## Tommo_Aus (13 March 2010)

Condog, I take it you re-entered? I'm currently tied up with the likes of OBJ and SSN... still holding onto GGP and VIL at the same time, what can you see SEA has in the near future that SSN doesn't have in the coming weeks?


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## condog (13 March 2010)

Tommo_Aus said:


> Condog, I take it you re-entered? I'm currently tied up with the likes of OBJ and SSN... still holding onto GGP and VIL at the same time, what can you see SEA has in the near future that SSN doesn't have in the coming weeks?




yep back in.

SSN has good immediate upside once its price consolidates, it was a bit overbought and is currently correcting to go again. SEa has better mid to long term prospects and better cash flow. 

SSN, march prospects may change that if it gets good cash flow from Gene 1-22H in the Bakken about to be fracced. They should hopfully get 3000BOPD gross from that, i think they have about a 30% NRI from memory. So if they get that then SSN will then have brilliant cash flow for further activities.

SSN seems solid to me but i just haven had the time to check it close enough for a buy. Certainly some speculative trade action. Might be worth a trade or two once the price corrects a bit. To my knoweldegt that frac has not started and would take about 30+ days so its likely to be late April before the big action on SSN imo.


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## Mofra (17 March 2010)

Placement for holders as at 29 March at 13.5c per share, to raise $8.7m. Just flicking through the investor presentation now. Given this was on the radar, taking a small stake & legging in the rest via placement seems a reasonably easy way to obtain cheap entry for the current non-holders.


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## condog (18 March 2010)

good call mofra - i agree

its also a great buying opp while the instos clear out thier cheap purchase from cap raisng. at around 14- 15c for a few weeks.


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## Mofra (24 March 2010)

First leg in now; pretty comfortable holding this one to be honest, given the low recovery costs once the multi-stage fraccing is in place and they have reached Operational Cashflow positive status already.


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## condog (24 March 2010)

Todays announcment with successful 32 stage frac and 1400bopd is sensational. 5% interest at virtually no cost.

5-7 more wells for Goliath in 2010. All looking great for SEA imo.


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## condog (28 April 2010)

SPP shuts 7th may for holders 

Downward pressure ceased for now and building

50 wells to be completed in 2010 raning from 1% interest upwards.

certainly looks like good upside, but DYOR.


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## Mofra (28 April 2010)

condog said:


> SPP shuts 7th may for holders
> 
> Downward pressure ceased for now and building
> 
> ...



15.5c resistance broke yesterday and the last few announcements appear positive. 
The last traded price at 15.5c is ~13% higher then the 13.5c SPP price too. Money for jam.


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## Mofra (12 May 2010)

condog said:


> SPP shuts 7th may for holders
> 
> Downward pressure ceased for now and building
> 
> ...



Expecting some short term downwards pressure on this one from 20 May onwards as there is a bit of profit-taking from the placement (0% LVR for most margin lenders so will be one of the stocks lightened if the recent volatility continues).

Happy to have the positive news keep rolling in though.


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## Mofra (14 July 2010)

This one has run a bit - up 81.5% on the 13.5c issue price! 

No news I can see, no announcement since 7 July, will be interesting to watch the price action from here.


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## condog (16 July 2010)

Mofra said:


> This one has run a bit - up 81.5% on the 13.5c issue price!
> 
> No news I can see, no announcement since 7 July, will be interesting to watch the price action from here.




Possibly some drilling results not relaesed to ASX yet??

Good on you, im currently out, but watching with interest.


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## J&M (17 July 2010)

condog said:


> Possibly some drilling results not relaesed to ASX yet??
> 
> Good on you, im currently out, but watching with interest.




Hey Condog 

Could you please post a chart on this stock 
I am very new to shares and am learning how to read the charts 
I have a very small holding in this stock and looking to buy more 

Thanks 
James


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## condog (17 July 2010)

J&M said:


> Hey Condog
> 
> Could you please post a chart on this stock
> I am very new to shares and am learning how to read the charts
> ...




Hey J &M its just had a good unjustified run, looking like its a bit overbought at present on the charts. Im not currently holding or charting it, perhaps mofra might have one. 

On its stochastics and relative strength index, plus with simple trendlines it looks overbought, however having said that they have a hell of a lot of drilling happening and if they have hit something and its not yet published there could be a good reason for its sudden rise. 

At 10-14 c its was way to cheap in my opinion. At 25c its probably still good value, but its raced there and likely to have a few pull backs before going higher imo. To me on a quick chart around 20-21c looks ok . But thats just my opinion ive been wrong and im really not watching ti as close as AUT.

This is not advoce, simply an opinion. Please seek expert advice and always do your own research (DYOR).


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## condog (22 July 2010)

wow 30c today and going strong, appears to be based around sale to beach petrolium.

SEA have bben saying they are worth 40c plus for some time, maybe its becoming reaqlity..

Not currently holding , but have and probably willl, still waiting on some more viable wells. 

They seem to me to be better at value adding to acerage then extracting oil, but certainly have some prime acerage in the Bakken shale.


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## Mofra (23 August 2010)

condog said:


> They seem to me to be better at value adding to acerage then extracting oil, but certainly have some prime acerage in the Bakken shale.



Currently at 34.5c, pretty happy with the 13.5c SPP I must say 

Interesting point on the acreage value-adds, release today indicates at $885their value per acre is much lower than their peers. 
Production growth chart pushing 900boe pd for Dec 10, with Willistin basin showing 1020 boe pd during testing (excluding 24 hr numbers). 

Given the stage of development cycle of most of their plays they will probably be priced closer to developer rather than producer for some time IMO, although the last cap raising gives them the cash they need.


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## condog (2 September 2010)

Well done to all holders

seems to be a lot more in this in coming months

those bakken results are amazing

i think it might need to consolidate for a while first


only opinion, but i was right at 11c calling it as undervalued, so right now my guess is even though it still offers good value, i think it needs to consolidate for a bit first.


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## Mofra (3 September 2010)

condog said:


> only opinion, but i was right at 11c calling it as undervalued, so right now my guess is even though it still offers good value, i think it needs to consolidate for a bit first.



There does seem to be a bit of a pullback and consolidation forming now. I'm happy with sustainable gains and look forward to the Dec 10 results being released in the new year to see how closely they will be able to match the forecasts in their development updates/presentations to investors.


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## condog (21 September 2010)

Mofra they are doing well so far, and that deal last week was a cracker. These guys are brilliant with thier deal making and they are gradually getting better at retaining higher royalties which is very nice.

One i have a lot of faith in.


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## condog (24 September 2010)

Bought back into today on that amazing news of 589boepd upgrade, plus $8.1m from sale give $16M in bank with so many royalties to flow and deals to come, cash flow positive now if you take out exploration and development.


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## condog (24 September 2010)

These guys now have 589 bopd and on schedule for 900boepd by dec. Almost every well  they are tapping is in excess of 1000BOPD for its 30 day average now. They are very very very economic wells and SEA is getting better at negotiating higher prices, higher retained intersts and better and better acerages. They have 7 rigs working on site and right now imo they have with thier last few results proven thier acerage and operator as world class. imo this thing is due for a very significant re-rating just like AUT is currently going through.  I could be wrong, but this is a familiar pattern emerging imo. 

Surely on todays report and the imminent achievement of 900boepd Euroz and the other analysts will begin to dramatically rerate this .

At 900boepd rev should grow to 54000pd which after royalties , taxes and cash costs would give annual net revenue of approx 11-13Million. This equates to a share price of approx 55-65c, based on PE's of 12-14, given its growth prospects.


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## condog (24 September 2010)

Well they didnt rocke tup today like i thought and like the company would have hoped, but that performanc cant be ignored for long.

These guys have $76m mcap - $17M cas = EV $59M

how on earth can a company which is on the cusp of earnings from 900+boepd, plus lots of other growth and world class acerage be trading at that price. Wont be for long imo.


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## luap77 (24 September 2010)

My short term target is in the 40's. SEA has been a sleeper but is now starting to awaken and liquidity is improving. Share price will fall if the market retreats (can be had cheaply on dips). If markets hold up or advance then we are up and away IMO. Been in this for quite some time (sub 10c) and have been calling it way undervalued since then. Wasn't so sure of markets in recent times, but regardless of what happens energy prices are only going up in the long term IMO.


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## condog (24 September 2010)

luap77 said:


> My short term target is in the 40's. SEA has been a sleeper but is now starting to awaken and liquidity is improving. Share price will fall if the market retreats (can be had cheaply on dips). If markets hold up or advance then we are up and away IMO. Been in this for quite some time (sub 10c) and have been calling it way undervalued since then. Wasn't so sure of markets in recent times, but regardless of what happens energy prices are only going up in the long term IMO.




imo but DYOR todays announcment is nothing short of amamzing. 900boe pd by Dec and much more growth. Ev= $59M with over $13M? very soon. Anyone that imo cant see growth in that wants shooting.


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## condog (25 September 2010)

DJIA and oil up really strongly which will help SEA come monday. Dollar up strongly almost 96c which is not perfect, but still it will decline eventually.


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## condog (26 September 2010)

OMG is no one watching this stock. If not what the hell are you watching and why the hell are you not watchig this like a hawk.


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## luap77 (27 September 2010)

I've been watching like a hawk from about 7c. Hold a fair few and will be looking to buy more. I'm also very surprised at the lack of interest/excitment with SEA, given what has been announced this calender year. Sleeping beauty may be awakening in a gradual manner, but nonetheless awakening IMO. Good time to hold IMO. Well worth some research if you aren't in this stock!


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## UBIQUITOUS (27 September 2010)

condog said:


> OMG is no one watching this stock. If not what the hell are you watching and why the hell are you not watchig this like a hawk.




I watched it but bought SSN instead due to a vastly superior cash position and 100% interests in the Niobrara as opposed to the relatively small percentage interests that SEA has.

Well you did ask!!


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## condog (27 September 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> I watched it but bought SSN instead due to a vastly superior cash position and 100% interests in the Niobrara as opposed to the relatively small percentage interests that SEA has.
> 
> Well you did ask!!




Relative small interest ?????

Yes relative across a huge acerage and huge number of current drill programs. They had 5 net wells drilled in August. Thats far higher interest in both acerage and active wells then SSN has. Thiere higher net interest wells are just kicking off now. 

Dont get me wrong SSN has huge potential, but it would be absolutely impossible to come up with any analogy that showed it has a higher net interest imo.


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## Mofra (27 September 2010)

The 900 BOE equivalent target for December being on track is a very positive result IMO, considering on an Operating cost basis they are cashflow positive as per the previous quarter's results at 381 BOE. 
Given the proportion of fixed overheads reduces with increased capacity the upside seems significant IMO, especially when the ~US$12 per barrel production costs are factored in once the mutli-stage fraccing gets above 24 stages.


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## condog (27 September 2010)

I could be totally wrong but after watching the re-rating of AUT this week, imo this ones likely to pop soon with a re rating to 4 something, possibly 50 something cents in the next few weeks.

imo it first has to clear the traders out taking thier small profits.

 I could be 100% wrong so do your own research and seek advice to your specific circumstances.


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## 5haretrader (28 September 2010)

Condog, what a surprise to _sea_ (ahem) you over here on this thread . Anyways if you are after a bit of a discussion I thought I would try and start something off here. I know a fair bit about SSN, but my knowledge in SEA is lacking.

From where I see it, SEA has the potential to draw a similar growth pattern to AUT but I don't have the experience in crunching numbers to get a potential target for say 6-12 months time. 

Could you perhaps take 5 minutes of your time out to perhaps paraphrase why you like this company so much, over, say, SSN, GGE or BCC (all are American oilers in different stages of development)? I would appreciate it greatly. Thanks!!


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## condog (28 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Condog, what a surprise to _sea_ (ahem) you over here on this thread . Anyways if you are after a bit of a discussion I thought I would try and start something off here. I know a fair bit about SSN, but my knowledge in SEA is lacking.
> 
> From where I see it, SEA has the potential to draw a similar growth pattern to AUT but I don't have the experience in crunching numbers to get a potential target for say 6-12 months time.
> 
> Could you perhaps take 5 minutes of your time out to perhaps paraphrase why you like this company so much, over, say, SSN, GGE or BCC (all are American oilers in different stages of development)? I would appreciate it greatly. Thanks!!




Hi 5haretrader, ive been in and out of this since 11c.

SEA imo has massive growth potential, firstly because of htier small mcap.  In relation to that mcap they have rapidly growing boepd and a brilliant business model of persuing early phase acerage, doing deals to recoup significant multiples on thier acerage costs and retaining royalties, acerage and interest with world class operators in world class acerage positions.

They have ammassed a massive portfolio of acerage, a massive portfolio of well interests and a massive portfolio of royalties, relative to thier mcap.

The growth opportunities now with all of the above are simply staggering for this company. thier latest sale is proof of the quality of managment. 


> The Company secured an Independent Reserve report
> from Netherland Sewell that verified the strong growth
> during the financial year in Sundance’s base of hydrocarbon
> reserves. The highlights of that report were as follows:
> ...






> Sundance participating in up to
> 50 wells in calendar 2010, 40 in its Williston Basin Bakken
> prospects and 10 across its DJ Basin prospects.




One very very switched on mamagement imo with a sound and well funded growth plan. 

Through the alliance with Beach, theres also a very real chance Beach may TO SEA imo.


> As is set forth in the table below, at 30 June 2010, the
> Company owned approximately 114,238 net US acres
> in primarily high ownership interest plays located in
> some of the most prospective oil and gas shale basins
> in the country.



An increase of 40% over 2009 acerage.

Definitely DYOR as this is all amatuer opinion. I am just a mug punter like you, and can and do get it wrong. Lots of external forces at play, ie oil price etc and risk asociated with the game of oil.

From what i can project they will have a cash profit prior to spending on exploration and development of around $10-$14m by end of 2010 or early 2011. Relate that back to mcap of ,$80M and you can see why im excited. Especially given its rapid growth and in all lieklihood continual rapid growth if  all other factors remain equal.


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## 5haretrader (28 September 2010)

Thanks mate, your posts are always top quality. Helps a lot. Cheers.

This one might pull back to low 30s, and if it does I'll be all over it.


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## prgudula (28 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Thanks mate, your posts are always top quality. Helps a lot. Cheers.
> 
> This one might pull back to low 30s, and if it does I'll be all over it.





thanks guys this is showing more confidence to enter SEA and take a ride like AUT done for us.

I am looking into enter between 30s to 32s if possible.

here is the analysis from stoxline


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## GaryS (28 September 2010)

Condog

When you stated
"Through the alliance with Beach, theres also a very real chance Beach may TO SEA imo."

I checked who was on the SEA board. This was interesting
Reginald George Nelson (Non Executive Director)

Reg Nelson has been CEO or Managing Director of Beach Petroleum since 1995, and has a career spanning nearly four decades as an exploration geophysicist in the minerals and petroleum industries. His industry credentials include former Chairman of peak industry organizations, the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration  Association (APPEA), where he remains a member of the Council. Reg is an Australian Citizen.


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## 5haretrader (28 September 2010)

Well I bit the bullet and made my purchase this morning. When I saw that market depth swing so dramatically, I knew my time to buy was today. I must say I'm very happy to become a new SEA shareholder. Had to pay a little premium to what I wanted to pay, (36cents), but it has broken resistance at 35cents and I can see 40cents quite easily here.


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## condog (28 September 2010)

you got to love owning a stock that others find difficult to buy.  can see those sellers showing some arrogance too, which is frustrating the buyers as they stack up for thier next onslaught. Be nice if its today.


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## 5haretrader (28 September 2010)

Agreed condog. This is a bread and butter breakout of a key resistance level. Checkout the volume today! The fact that SEA has broken out with strong volume bodes very well for the next few days. Look for 35cents to become a strong support level and 40cents to be the next pyschological round number hurdle for the buyers to break through. What was I thinking putting my bid in at 30cents this morning, that price is long gone.


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## ParleVouFrancois (28 September 2010)

5haretrader so one of those buys this morning was you too! I bought at the open, went back to bed (was awake most of the night researching the switch of shares between AUT and SEA which I decided was a good idea) woke up again, and already up 10% on SEA. Very very lucky trading, AUT is even for today. So I'm in a good mood .

I'm liking how SEA's management are very active, they seem to have lots of value creating deals going on at once, with hopefully more on the way. I liked the major derisking of the Twister project, 8 million is about 10% of the MC (well it was this morning lolol) on top of some of the cash they already had, enables them to fund even more exploration. The future looks good as long as management doesn't lose their mojo.


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## UBIQUITOUS (28 September 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> 5haretrader so one of those buys this morning was you too! I bought at the open, went back to bed (was awake most of the night researching the switch of shares between AUT and SEA which I decided was a good idea) woke up again, and already up 10% on SEA. Very very lucky trading, AUT is even for today. So I'm in a good mood .
> 
> I'm liking how SEA's management are very active, they seem to have lots of value creating deals going on at once, with hopefully more on the way. I liked the major derisking of the Twister project, 8 million is about 10% of the MC (well it was this morning lolol) on top of some of the cash they already had, enables them to fund even more exploration. The future looks good as long as management doesn't lose their mojo.




Yes I was in on open aswell. Its nice to hold a stock with a tight registry which moves on volume but is not as the mercy of daytraders. The chart is looking very good. It's very hard to tell SSN and SEA apart, and on that basis there is another 30% to go for SEA to match SSN's price. Or vice versa


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## AngusSmart (28 September 2010)

I'm in also this morning.. i decided that ssn was too risky and not operated good enough at the moment. untill someone decent comes on board to drill and frac for them i will sit out otherwise they will be a cracker once they get someone onboard..

Good luck to all the holders of SEA!! cant wait to ride this one out for a year or so!


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## 5haretrader (28 September 2010)

Here's a few charts. The first one is a comparison of SEA to SSN in terms of price movement. The second one is a look at the chart of SEA. It looks pretty bullish I must admit.


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## condog (28 September 2010)

Well done to all on this recent rally, ive exited part of my position, not becasue i want to , but becasue i had to. shhhh its my CGT bill money.


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## ParleVouFrancois (28 September 2010)

I'm a big fan of their strategy to secure low cost acres then shore them up then onsell them, keeping a slice of equity for the company and sometimes a royalty, kind of like the Cape Lambert of the Eagle Ford Shale . According to my calculations (somewhat conservative) SEA is currently worth about 50 cents per share, which is similar to the result that Euroz (48 cents, but it's pre-twister sale) got in their report a while back (having dug it up after I calculated mine, it gave me confidence to buy in this morning expecting a small dip before rising, but instead it just skipped to the rising part ). I'm hoping it'll be onwards and upwards from here on!


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## UBIQUITOUS (28 September 2010)

The recent broker report from 3 weeks ago and it's 48c target is already woefully out of date.

Firstly it uses 30-June balances for its balance sheet valuation. As we know, there has been material changes since.

Secondly, and most importantly, the 48c valuation is based on a forecast 305kbbls attributable production for 2012. 

Now as we know SEA have recently forecast 900boepd a day from Dec 2010. 905x365=328k. *So the announcement on Friday has in effect pulled forward production by at least one year in relation to the 48c target, and this does not included upgraded production by 2011.*

I believe that this is the reason for much of the recent buying, and would expect to see a revised broker report next month giving a price target between 60c and 70c.


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## condog (28 September 2010)

UBIQ,  while i like SSN, this thing is that far ahead of it in terms of dev and derisking its not funny. Bout time you saw the lights.


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## UBIQUITOUS (28 September 2010)

condog said:


> UBIQ,  while i like SSN, this thing is that far ahead of it in terms of dev and derisking its not funny. Bout time you saw the lights.




CD, Peddling your wares again? 

Relax. The big rerating is happening. No need to oversell!


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## 5haretrader (28 September 2010)

Yep, at risk of turning this thread into the American O&G speccie conference, condog has a fair point in that SEA is more advanced than SSN in terms of proving up the acreage. On the other hand, I do like SSN's cash position. Nevertheless from what I gather, both have high class, level headed directors that are pulling all the right strings at the moment. Both companies are going to be big in 2011, and thus, it makes sense to have a stake in both. We will see the rise and rise of SEA, and the establishment of another O&G play in SSN.

I do have a question with regards to SEA. I know earlier in the year they had a SPP to raise capital when the share price was a third of what it is now. Does anyone see the need for short term capital given that the company is going to try and ramp up proceedings in the next 6 months?

Cheers.


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## UBIQUITOUS (28 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Yep, at risk of turning this thread into the American O&G speccie conference, condog has a fair point in that SEA is more advanced than SSN in terms of proving up the acreage. On the other hand, I do like SSN's cash position. Nevertheless from what I gather, both have high class, level headed directors that are pulling all the right strings at the moment. Both companies are going to be big in 2011, and thus, it makes sense to have a stake in both. We will see the rise and rise of SEA, and the establishment of another O&G play in SSN.
> 
> I do have a question with regards to SEA. I know earlier in the year they had a SPP to raise capital when the share price was a third of what it is now. Does anyone see the need for short term capital given that the company is going to try and ramp up proceedings in the next 6 months?
> 
> Cheers.




Onshore oil is HOT in the US. BP has helped matters!

I do like both SSN and SEA for different reasons but as you've alluded to guys,   were really splitting hairs here. You last question is why I hold SSN as well as SEA. I think SEA will be farming out to raise cash as needed but once they get ahead on the cashflow next year, they'll be self funding.


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## condog (29 September 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Onshore oil is HOT in the US. BP has helped matters!
> 
> I do like both SSN and SEA for different reasons but as you've alluded to guys,   were really splitting hairs here. You last question is why I hold SSN as well as SEA. I think SEA will be farming out to raise cash as needed but once they get ahead on the cashflow next year, they'll be self funding.




Yep thats what they do, they are experts at it , and they have so far pulled of wonderful deals with world class operators. 

This is also why they have sooooo much acerage for a small cap.Because they full intend to offload some of it for many multiples over what they paid, retain some royalties and retain some interest.

5haretrader - im guessing SPP and CR's will be dependent on what deal making they do. In this game there is always a large need for capital, especially in the small caps. They way i judge it is can they turn that capital requirement into multiples and accellerate growth, like AUT did, like SEA so far are doing. If so, imo dont worry about it.


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## 5haretrader (29 September 2010)

condog said:


> ...they turn that capital requirement into multiples and accellerate growth, like AUT did, like SEA so far are doing. *If so, imo dont worry about it.*




Funny you should say that. I've learnt from my encounter with AUT's SPP that one shouldn't turn a blind eye to these opportunities for cheap shares if the company is going places. I think all too often we as investors look at cap raisings in a negative manner because it brings on dilution. Sure, if your company is an absolute dog you could be excused for not taking a part in a SPP, but for these up and comeing O&G plays, a SPP can be fantastic for shareholders to top up on their holding.


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## condog (29 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Funny you should say that. I've learnt from my encounter with AUT's SPP that one shouldn't turn a blind eye to these opportunities for cheap shares if the company is going places. I think all too often we as investors look at cap raisings in a negative manner because it brings on dilution. Sure, if your company is an absolute dog you could be excused for not taking a part in a SPP, but for these up and comeing O&G plays, a SPP can be fantastic for shareholders to top up on their holding.




Yep in most repeated CR, should be a warning sign imo. 

But when you find a company with a well laid out extremely economic growth plan, with the assets in place, the personal and the technology, then CR's can be a god send in a limited amount if they eimmediately utilize the capital to accelerate growth. AUT probably went too early imo, but its all irrelevant now.


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## UBIQUITOUS (29 September 2010)

And they've just announced a further project acquisition. What I like about this is that the expensive 3d seismic has already been done. 

It's obvious what they have done here. They've flipped part of Twister at a very good price, and gone and acquired more acreage at a bargain basement price.

Thumbs up to SEA management.

*Sundance Launches New Prospect in Kansas*

Sundance’s Board of Directors is pleased to announce the initiation of a new oil and gas
development project located in the state of Kansas in the United States of America. This new play
is called the Pawnee Prospect. The Company’s wholly owned US subsidiary, Sundance Energy,
Inc., joined its long time joint venture partner, McElvain Oil & Gas Limited Partnership, in the
play by acquiring 25% of McElvain’s interests, or approximately 4000 net acres to Sundance.
The play will focus on developing conventional targets as well
as an unconventional shale target which the Company believes to
be very prospective. 3D seismic has been shot across a small
percentage of the acreage and has high graded several drillable
prospects. Access to the unconventional shale will require the
application of horizontal drilling technology and suits the
Company’s focus on resource plays while giving it excellent
exposure to very economic conventional reserves as well.
“We are very excited about opening up this new, very prospective play which we believe fits our
business model perfectly.” said Managing Director Jayme McCoy.


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## Mofra (29 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> I do have a question with regards to SEA. I know earlier in the year they had a SPP to raise capital when the share price was a third of what it is now. Does anyone see the need for short term capital given that the company is going to try and ramp up proceedings in the next 6 months?



Not according to my last calculations - the cap raising detailed the spend of all capital raised and it basically covered exploration and the SEA contribution to development costs in all of their existing plays. My entry to SEA was a small purchase to gain access to the cap raising so that would date the calculations to then (at work so don't have the figures handy).

I don't believe it covers the new development announced this morning however at 900BOE PD from December this is almost 3 times the June Qtr production which was cashflow positive on an operational basis (cap rasing coverering development costs).

I was surprised by the jump yesterday but the last time I was as confident after crunching numbers on a stock was MGX at 16c


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## 5haretrader (30 September 2010)

It might not be clear to the naked eye, but SEA is holding up very well. You will notice a swelling of buyers around 35cents. This coinciding with a bounce off 35.5cents indicates to me that we have a new key support level at 35. Good!!

I think in the comeing months the market will really open their eyes up to these shale oil companies in America. Take for example the rerating with AUT at the moment. SSN has the same common denominator when it comes to the company's bottom line. Promising acreages, solid management, generous financial positioning. Seems like a bit of a no brainer to me.


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## condog (30 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> It might not be clear to the naked eye, but SEA is holding up very well. You will notice a swelling of buyers around 35cents. This coinciding with a bounce off 35.5cents indicates to me that we have a new key support level at 35. Good!!
> 
> I think in the comeing months the market will really open their eyes up to these shale oil companies in America. Take for example the rerating with AUT at the moment. SSN has the same common denominator when it comes to the company's bottom line. Promising acreages, solid management, generous financial positioning. Seems like a bit of a no brainer to me.




SEA will inevitably open the markets eyes via unavoidable performance if it continues in early 2011 the way its finished 2010.


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## BrightGreenGlow (2 October 2010)

DOWJones Average was up over the weekend and a nice pre-open depth for the holders...


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## condog (3 October 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> DOWJones Average was up over the weekend and a nice pre-open depth for the holders...




ay jon forget the DJIA hows about the oil price. That is one very big upshot in the price accross the board.


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## Mofra (21 October 2010)

Looks like the consolidation/pullback was healthy. Now at ATHs on the back of the roadshow presentation released yesterday. 

Targeted Market cap of $300-500m in 3-5 years 
They're at $90m now. 

I was looking at the 900bopd ST goal (Dec 10) and they're talking 4,250 bopd within FY 10/11 as well. Certainly not backwards in coming forwards.


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## BrightGreenGlow (21 October 2010)

Very promising start to Friday.....

34 buyers for 1,917,779 units	               28 sellers for 729,896 units

x2.5 times the sellers.


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## noie (21 October 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Very promising start to Friday.....
> 
> 34 buyers for 1,917,779 units	               28 sellers for 729,896 units
> 
> x2.5 times the sellers.




Yes rather glad , I looked at the MD late as-well, I was about to take my wins and run, will hold for whatever may come tomorrow.


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## condog (24 October 2010)

Aegis put out a valuation of 65c on SEA last week. Ive got it valued at about 58c, either way it seems cheap. Its peer comparison in the Roadshow presentation makes it very cheap with $8.39 2p which, considering the quality of its acerages and its results so far seems good value, especially to its peers.


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## naga00 (26 October 2010)

Sundance investors- many of you do not know this but a well known financial publication in the USA recommended and continues to recommend SEA with a strong buy rating!  visit the site saadvisory and review the email alerts for July 1, 2010 and Sept 7th 2010 for very bullish comments about this extraordinary opportunity to make a huge amount of money from SEA .
This letter has also recommended SSN and ETE that trade in the US as well!
This letter remains very bullish toward USA domestic oils ~ Bakken and Niobrara and Eagleford!
The letter picks have done outstanding! review the portfolio
bexp, axas, ssn, sdcjf.pk, sd, wres, gmxr, kog, dej, cmt.to, uen.l and qep


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## Mofra (26 October 2010)

Thanks naga00, just having a look at their past e-mails now. 
The SSN info is interesting, I'd assume most SEA holders have a few of the other US Oil plays on the radar (TXN, SSN, AUT etc).


From their 1 July alert:



> ALL THE ABOVE INVESTMENTS REMAIN STRONG BUYS~
> 
> sdcjf.pk--NEW BUY RECOMMENDATION .17
> 
> ...


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## ParleVouFrancois (26 October 2010)

All that caps lock made my eyes bleed. Seems a little unprofessional to have an entire email in caps.


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## naga00 (26 October 2010)

*mofra the cat*

txn does not trade in the USA~ very interesting opp in my opinion~ I am playing azz that does trade in the USA as azzef.pk~  I am sure that you are aware of this australian!
Concerning SEA~ we should see a update any minute!  The Henderson which they own 20% is the well that I am waiting for results!
Hard to understand that there are actually sellers in this stock at this price!  The upside potential is huge during the next 6-12 months and beyond~  I assume after talking with management that they prefer to be very careful in their boepd of 1000 for 2010 and 2000 for 2011!  I believe that number will be larger and drilling will be robust!  According to management the company will jv 114 well during 2011!  With this news investor in Australia sell the shares for a few pennies!


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## Assasin (26 October 2010)

Welcome nagaoo,
   Looks like this is another stock to put in a drawer untill after Christmas.
 I think it's time to start working out who is going to buy out who in the region.
  Surely it's unlikely to think that all the players in this area, SEA, AUT, EKA, TXN etc etc are going to remain in the next 12 months.
  Enjoy the ride.


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## naga00 (26 October 2010)

*assasin- thank you for hello!*

in the states as mentioned txn is not on the "pinks" and cannot be purchase!  I am going to look into opening an account with an australian online trading firm- not sure that american's have the proper info and now sure about the tax situation!  will look at your eka
my other favorite domestic oil in the states is axas- eagleford,bakken,niobrara holdings , 4000 beopd and much more for $3.00
favorite asian stock  and cheapest stock in my Universe is awrcf.ob


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## naga00 (28 October 2010)

*SEA - Sundance Energy Australia- new update-wow*

just released update from sea- additional production, 18 wells waiting on completion or drilling completion, drilling in the niobrara and reminds the investor that they are on track to reach 1000 boepd by end of 2010.
the real hold up is the limited crews of frac'er- also involved with 7 rigs drilling!
Cannot understand why australian investors are selling this super cheap stock for a few cents of gain!  This stock is worth dollars whether US or Australian!  this stock is a game changer!


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## Assasin (28 October 2010)

Seems that every oiler in the region is having trouble getting fraccing crews.
Might be a great job opportunity.
Great news for SEA holders.


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## Mofra (28 October 2010)

Certainly moved today on the last ann (on track to meet forecasts). 
Up over 10%, sellers have dried up and the price is firmly in blue sky territory


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## Assasin (28 October 2010)

Great report from Euroz with a target now of 68c
Stand -by, I reckon Condog is going to be all over this.


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## naga00 (28 October 2010)

my largest position is sea
still hold a little ssn- 
into ete-- longer term sleeper
finally hold azz - which today is halted until nov 11 because of sale of property in texas- eagleford- who is the luck buyer?
Can you imagine - sea has 18 well in various stages of completion- think ssn is just dead money and almost thought about selling the position and getting back in later


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## Mofra (28 October 2010)

Naga, SEA is one of only two speccies held (14 blueys held) and has become my largest holding too due to price growth. Comfortable with not lightening the holding due to management and price activity to date.


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## naga00 (28 October 2010)

as said earlier~ hard to understand why investor have been selling sea for a few penny gains when the party has barely started?
In my conversation with management from  June 15th- with their conservative est. and continued performance- how can you sell?
18 wells currently being completed or frac'ed and 118 jv wells for 2011!
Maybe the invests that are selling cannot read and able to understand!
what is your other "special" oil


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## ParleVouFrancois (28 October 2010)

Hey Naga I've sold about 8000 shares today (half my holdings) due to the increase in price, 45% profit (bought at 34 cents) in about a month or so. By any measure that's an incredible return, I understand why you'd think that people are selling out "can't read", but as profit targets are hit money should be taken off the table imo, it's all up to investors style and preferences.

That being said I'm still very bullish on SEA (hence not selling all of my shares), and I'll be looking to buy back in on a dip if there are any, 2011 onwards looks very positive for SEA, underrated by many benchmarks (EV/barrels of oil etc) so we're still cheap despite the increase in price.


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## naga00 (28 October 2010)

parle- understand profit motive, but discount value and in your face upside potential should indicate that this is not a sale! A 45% return in a month is great, but in reality it is meaningless in the big picture- only 5% of their property has been reserved, they are drilling jv 118 well in 2011, they have 18 frac jobs in progress or to be in progress, their acreage is in the sweet spot- so you made .15 on 8000 shares- parle that is not a huge amount of money!  Hopefully, you will have the opportunity to jump back in on the usual dip!  Personally, I am unable to sell because the discounted value and future potential is so great that my trading habit will not allow me to press "enter"  !  This is a multiple dollar stock sooner than later or a buyout candidate!


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## yma (28 October 2010)

Assasin said:


> Great report from Euroz with a target now of 68c
> Stand -by, I reckon Condog is going to be all over this.




Assasin, where can we have the report? is it a short term target? can you post a URL for it


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## BrightGreenGlow (29 October 2010)

Awesome numbers for Friday's opening... The DOW is slightly down but massive Buyers vs. Sellers ratio....  Hopefully we will add a few more cents before the weekend.  Very impressed with the SP movement yesterday!


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## BrightGreenGlow (31 October 2010)

Even better numbers for Monday's opening.... big sell numbers from 52 - 55c. Noting a gap at 53c too. So I guess hopefully a nice 2-3c rise tomorrow??


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## condog (2 November 2010)

Id like to be all over it, but im cash strapped due to a CGT position. My old man is all over it. 

Good on you guys - this is one juicy stock, easily the next AUT imo.


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## BrightGreenGlow (6 November 2010)

Hmmmm Trading Status says Inquiry.... anyone know why guys?? Once again today up 4c and nice ratio to start Monday too.


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## condog (6 November 2010)

They often say that after hours. No concerns. It will say it till it changes to pre-open generally.


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 November 2010)

SEA added another 2.5c today, so was a very good day and the trend is looking strong. . After the close still twice as many buyers and 5 times the amount of units in the Buy side.


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## Mofra (9 November 2010)

Will be interesting to see how the market is valuing SEA. The 900 bopd taregt for December seems to be well below the longer term forecasts (even as a benchmark) mentioned in the investor presentation released a short time ago as an announcement. 

Is it possible the $$$$ per acre discount relative to it's peers is driving the price?


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## condog (9 November 2010)

Mofra said:


> Will be interesting to see how the market is valuing SEA. The 900 bopd taregt for December seems to be well below the longer term forecasts (even as a benchmark) mentioned in the investor presentation released a short time ago as an announcement.
> 
> Is it possible the $$$$ per acre discount relative to it's peers is driving the price?




imo - It has a low valuation to:

its peers
its reserves
its flows and future flows

The Bakken is amazing quality and thers a big shift from offshore to onshore, compounded by a big shift from dry gas to liquids rich plays. 

SEA has both. Its low mcap makes it an attractive buy and an attractive TO target in my opinion. DYOR and seek good expert advice, not bad expert advice.


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## condog (10 November 2010)

Very few SEA shares for sale 298K. Thats by SEA standards extremely low. Looks good for some upward pressure.


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## Mofra (15 November 2010)

Trading Halt - any clues? I understood all of their 2011 drilling program was covered by operational cashflow & the last cap raising at 13.5c.


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## ParleVouFrancois (15 November 2010)

If you read the announcement it states that it's a placement to a new shareholder. Tbh I wasn't expecting this, fully funded for 2010 + 2011 I would thought, with the sale of Twister for 9 million. Perhaps management have found cheap acreage to buy? Otherwise I'm not sure at all as to why they'd sell more shares at this point, still a bit more to run to reach fair value.


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## condog (15 November 2010)

From Announcment


> Sundance Energy Australia Limited (SEA) requests the ASX grant a Trading Halt pending an announcement *relating to a share placement*. The company is not aware of any reason that a Trading Halt should not be granted.




"relating to a share placement" not a share holder. The term Capital raising would generally be used if it was only being offered to institutionals. This generally would mean an SPP offered to current share holders. Id say they have an acerage acquisition planned and need funds or plan to accelllerate thier current drilling program, and hence need to bring forward spending of capital. 

If they have done an SPP within the last 12 months they cannot do an SPP. I am unaware of any SPP within the last 12 months. 

Knowing SEA though id think its the former.

they had 14.9M cash at end of last quarterly and only planned on spending 6.6M in the current quarter , so there was no need for capital under the current plan. Its my opinion, they have an exciting opportunity. Disc - i do not hold, but wish i did.


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## AngusSmart (15 November 2010)

Good news, Might be time for entry for me!

relating to this, i dont hold SEA at the moment, but my girlfriend does.. is the offer goes thur and the current price doesnt drop close to offer i would like to pick some up thru her.. does anyone know the costs involved with transferring shares from her account to mine once they are allocated?


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## condog (15 November 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> Good news, Might be time for entry for me!
> 
> relating to this, i dont hold SEA at the moment, but my girlfriend does.. is the offer goes thur and the current price doesnt drop close to offer i would like to pick some up thru her.. does anyone know the costs involved with transferring shares from her account to mine once they are allocated?




You write to your broker and do an off market transfer, cost vary, but generally slightly dearer then a on market  trade. 
PLUS CGT if applicable, as you must trade at current sp, to avoid ATO chasing you imo.


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## BrightGreenGlow (16 November 2010)

Just had a quick look at the announcement... they did a 17.4million capt raising for instiutions and sophisticated investors at a 51c price.... I wouldn't have thought the SP would rise 1c on this news... oh well all is good however there is now 30 buyers and 30 sellers.... units are still x2 on the buyers side though


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## ParleVouFrancois (16 November 2010)

Where's my offer for shares at 51 cents? I'd take them all .

On the plus side I think this implies that management need the money quick, so they'll be able to spend it quick and get a return rapidly. With returns on Eagle Ford Shale wells on the order of 50 to 100% in the first year and SEA having similar payback times, any raising at these prices will increase the intrinsic value of SEA immensely so I'm still happy. Lots of money in the SEA kitty for the quality management to buy cheap, farmout a bit for profit, keep a trailing interest for revenue. Good business if you can get it.


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## Mofra (17 November 2010)

As I read it it isn't just funds to accelerate existing developments:



> Proceeds from the Placement (net of transaction costs) will be used to fund:
> • an accelerated Bakken development program through CY'11 (approximately
> A$5 million);
> • evaluation and development of Sundance’s Niobrara, Arriba, Wattenberg and
> ...




I read this as perhaps the company viewing their current acreages as undervalued and wishing to purchase more before the market realises. Given their history in creating value from acreages & farm-outs this reads as a positive.


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## BrightGreenGlow (18 November 2010)

2.5c down today and not looking so great tomorrow. Sellers have more volume than buyers... do you guys think it might head down to the 51c mark???


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## Assasin (21 November 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> 2.5c down today and not looking so great tomorrow. Sellers have more volume than buyers... do you guys think it might head down to the 51c mark???




 I was a bit grumpy when the recent CR was announced at 51c when the sp was around 59-60 at the time. I thought there was to big a gap and that SEA was also on the verge of marching through 60c at the time IMO.
I also thought it would retrace back to low 50's.
However, I've been convinced otherwise and this slight hesitation in momentum will be highly beneficial in the long run as SEA is well placed to not only march through 60c but move well beyond.
The news and announcements from this region just get better and better, the demand on resources globally is growing causing oil prices to remain high.
Personally, i'm hoping for a bit more of a retrace this week for me to increase holding.
Happy days ahead for SEA.


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## condog (21 November 2010)

Euroz put out an updated Target/valuation on SEA last week of 80c, they where very positive about SEA going forward with its accellerated program imo.


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## BrightGreenGlow (22 November 2010)

So do u guys think the SP will go back to that 51c price and then start to build again maybe?


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## condog (22 November 2010)

Sundance Energy Ltd (SEA $0.57) Buy
 Price Target: $0.80/sh
 Reason For Update: Company update and completion of capital raising
 Investment Case:
Given strong production results the lack of geological risk we expect shale sector tailwinds
will gain further momentum over the coming period with companies involved in the
proven commercial shale oil plays like SEA to be the key benefi ciaries. Future reserve,
production and earnings growth are very likely for SEA.
We have increased our valuation and price target by 23% to $0.80/sh – this incorporates
further recent outperforming production results into our model (increasing the type curve)
and a more aggressive Bakken drilling program over the next two years (EOG, Hess and Helis
operated). Recent production wells have outperformed SEA’s budgets by >100%.
Production is forecast to double over the next year from primarily its Bakken assets, 900-
2,000 boepd, >90% oil.
Following the capital raising (34.2m shares @$0.51/sh, raising $17.4m), SEA is funded for its
Bakken development drilling program going forward (>80 wells in the next 15 months at
5-10% average interests). We expect it will continue to farm down its Niobrara acreage to
crystallize value before drilling commences from the June Q’11. The equity raising will also
give SEA fl exibility to move on various acreage acquisitions it has identifi ed, in and around
its existing acreage positions.
We expect SEA will book a large increase to its 1P and 2P reserves (say >50%) and
commission its inaugural 3P reserves in the Mar Q’11. Due to the low risk nature of these
resource plays, 3P reserves are a good guide to future 2P and 1P reserves – we estimate
SEA will book >45 mmbbls 3P valuing it at a very cheap <$3/boe EV/3P reserves.
The Niobrara oil shale is poised to be the next big oil shale in the US based on recent
transactions and well results – SEA has a high quality >13,000 acre position which in time
could well dwarf its producing Bakken acreage.
We are confi dent SEA’s strategy of being the early entrant into quality resource plays will
pay off - acreage is king in shale plays and SEA has >90,000 shale acres, at least half of
which is good quality, liquids shale.

Comments:
Williston Basin – Bakken Shale
The recent 30 and 60 day production results from SEA’s Bakken wells give us increased
confi dence on SEA’s shale oil development program ahead in the Bakken.
Average production rate results to-date include:
Cash fl ow from an average 924 boepd for 60 days nets SEA ~US$4m (@ US$85/bbl, post
royalties and taxes) suggesting a 6-9 month payback based on well costs averaging
US$8.5m – excellent economics.

SEA currently has 6 rigs drilling 1 well per month on its Bakken acreage at 5-10% average
non-operating interest – this activity is set to increase by up to 50% with new rigs arriving
in the next few months.
The Helis operated Dodge 4-6-7H (SEA 6.4%) well has been outstanding, one of the best
in the Bakken after 90 days. The strong average plateau fl ow rate between the 60 and 90
days at ~1,350 boepd (almost all oil) is particularly pleasing. The Andrecovich 5-17/16H
(SEA 7.1%) has also been very strong with a higher 30 day average fl ow rate than the
Dodge well at 1,419 boepd.
The difference between short lateral (~4,500 ft lateral, 10-15 frac stages, US$5-6m gross
cost) and long lateral (~9,000 ft lateral, 18-30 frac stages,US$8-8.5m gross cost) wells is
evident just from the early stages of SEA’s development program. Long lateral wells will
“hold” 1,280 acres and look to be roughly double the results of the short lateral wells
which “hold” 640 acres. This bodes well for the robust economics of the long lateral
wells but it is still early days in determining the decline profi les and ultimate reserve
recovery of each type of well.
Our production forecasts are in line with company guidance at this stage but incorporate
a six month lag whilst we wait to see what sort of impact the horizontal Niobrara wells will
net next CY. Our cash fl ow forecast is $34m for FY’12 – healthy for a $113m EV company
with forecast production and earnings growth ahead.
DJ Basin – Niobrara Shale
SEA recently sold ~ 5,000 acres of its DJ Basin acreage, Colorado, focused on the Niobrara
acreage for US$8.7m and a 3.9% overriding royalty to Noble Energy Inc.
SEA reduced its interest in the Twister prospect from a 60% interest to 15%.
The consideration was US$8.1m cash and US$0.6m in carry through future drilling.
The cash portion is subject to further adjustment following DD to be completed in the
next 30 days.
SEA has also established an Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) with Noble.
Noble is a leading operator of horizontal development wells in the region.
The sale represents ~10% of SEA’s DJ Basin acreage and ~25% of its Niobrara acreage
position.
SEA retains ~13,000 net Niobrara acres.

Our production forecasts are in line with company guidance at this stage but incorporate
a six month lag whilst we wait to see what sort of impact the horizontal Niobrara wells will
net next CY. Our cash fl ow forecast is $34m for FY’12 – healthy for a $113m EV company
with forecast production and earnings growth ahead.
DJ Basin – Niobrara Shale
SEA recently sold ~ 5,000 acres of its DJ Basin acreage, Colorado, focused on the Niobrara
acreage for US$8.7m and a 3.9% overriding royalty to Noble Energy Inc.
SEA reduced its interest in the Twister prospect from a 60% interest to 15%.
The consideration was US$8.1m cash and US$0.6m in carry through future drilling.
The cash portion is subject to further adjustment following DD to be completed in the
next 30 days.
SEA has also established an Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) with Noble.
Noble is a leading operator of horizontal development wells in the region.
The sale represents ~10% of SEA’s DJ Basin acreage and ~25% of its Niobrara acreage
position.
SEA retains ~13,000 net Niobrara acres.

SEA reserves Comparison Table:
SEA AUT EKA MPO AZZ Average
1P Reserves (mmboe) 5.1 2.9 1.1 4.5 1.5 3.0
2P Reserves (mmboe) 8.2 8.5 3.4 9.2 8.2 7.5
EV ($m) 129 425 58 307 153 214
EV/1P Reserves ($/boe) 25 147 53 68 102 79
EV/2P Reserves ($/boe) 16 50 17 33 19 27


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## ParleVouFrancois (22 November 2010)

Imo it wont drift to 51 cents off the back of the recent placement, why would the people who just bought in at 51 cents sell out? At most imo it'd go down to 52 cents, however not saying it won't go lower due to American markets declining or something, just that purely due to the placement, I doubt it'd go close to a 1 or 2 cent margin.


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## skc (23 November 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Imo it wont drift to 51 cents off the back of the recent placement, why would the people who just bought in at 51 cents sell out? At most imo it'd go down to 52 cents, however not saying it won't go lower due to American markets declining or something, just that purely due to the placement, I doubt it'd go close to a 1 or 2 cent margin.




Isn't that the same logic as IPO should never tank below the issue price on debut? Yet they do all the time...


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## ParleVouFrancois (23 November 2010)

Sorry SKC you're right, my last post did seem to imply that, I'm quite tired from work so you'll have to forgive the sloppy posting.

"So do u guys think the SP will go back to that 51c price and then start to build again maybe?"

I meant it as in, SEA doesn't 'have' to touch 51 cents before it goes higher, because the additional selling pressure from the placement will all but disappear as it approaches that mark, and it'll only be left with what I call the "natural" selling pressure (e.g. people losing patience with the stock, the 365 day CGT time limit expiring, etc etc). However it may well go below 51 cents, but it would be a stretch to blame the recent falls from 60 cents purley on the placement pricing.

(Hope that explains it a bit more clearly)


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## skc (23 November 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Sorry SKC you're right, my last post did seem to imply that, I'm quite tired from work so you'll have to forgive the sloppy posting.
> 
> "So do u guys think the SP will go back to that 51c price and then start to build again maybe?"
> 
> ...




Fair enough. The relationship between cap raising price and share price varies greatly between different shares. Often the last issue price act as some sort of resistance, but other times the share price can fall right through below the issue price with no hesitation what so ever...

Esp with small companies raising capital - they tend to pick their timing just after the SP peaked (sometimes at levels that cannot be justified) and so the "natural" selling pressure alone can bring prices down to earth rather easily. Anyhow, since I know nothing about SEA I better butt out now


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## Assasin (23 November 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Sorry SKC you're right, my last post did seem to imply that, I'm quite tired from work so you'll have to forgive the sloppy posting.
> 
> "So do u guys think the SP will go back to that 51c price and then start to build again maybe?"
> 
> ...




Hi Frenchy,
            I think a few things have come out of the recent CR but as reported on this thread before by others, the main thing was the value and strength that has been added to SEA.
           For the short-termers, how far the sp retracers is important but if your looking at longer term as I am, then I'm just seeing it as a time to increase holding.
           Hopefully in time we'll recall disussing how far the price will retrace to with the regret that we didn't buy more.
           I'm completely confident with the fundamentals of SEA and growth prospects which is whats driving my thoughts. Seems to be following AUT in many ways which I've been in since 30c.


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## BrightGreenGlow (30 November 2010)

Once again big pressure on buyers. Not many sellers and good upward movement the last few days... so far today up another 2.5c  Hopefully we can break the 60c!


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## BrightGreenGlow (2 December 2010)

Strong Buyers are pushing towards another 52 weeks high today  Oil prices up and DOWJ up.


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## BrightGreenGlow (7 December 2010)

Production Update was out today and SEA fell 1.5c. Not 100% sure on how to read the market's expectation... I take it people thought there would be more boepd?


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 December 2010)

Up to another 52 week high today. 64.5c and looking strong with not many sellers again.


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## Assasin (8 December 2010)

Yeah, it had to happen didn't it.
Seriously though, if you were looking for a nice little stock, with a great business plan, proven acreage, great results and a busy forward program, what a beauty SEA is.
Oil prices don't look like coming down anytime soon and demand globally is growing.
Merry Christmas.:xmaswave


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 December 2010)

Merry Christmas indeed, another new high just a few minutes ago. Up to 0.66c.  Great work again, very limited sellers....


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## ParleVouFrancois (8 December 2010)

Acorn out with a new holding annoucement, from 6% to 8% they have been increasing exposure in recent times. It's probably what's been pushing up the share price quite rapidly, I'm thinking that Acorn will aim to buy anywhere between 10% to 15% of the company (flicked through a few of their other investments, they don't seem the type to be the majority holder, but a "major minor" holder seems to be their style). Brilliant stuff and hopefully their interest will spur some other smaller cap focused funds to invest.


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## BrightGreenGlow (9 December 2010)

SEA ended up anything 2c in the positive and hit a new high of 70c. Looks like only up from here... big support at the 60c ish levels


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## gsnz1 (14 December 2010)

kudos to clown333

WilsonsHTM Coverage
Sundance Energy Australia Limited (SEA): Initiation of Coverage

We are initiating coverage on Sundance Energy (SEA) with a Buy rating and price target of $0.88/sh. SEA is a petroleum exploration & production company focused on unconventional oil and gas prospects in the US, primarily in North Dakota (Bakken oil shale), Colorado (DJ Basin tight gas and oil shale) and Illinois (New Albany gas shale), and in Australia via its partnership with Beach Energy. SEA acquires and develops positions in early stage resource plays and applies technology to grow production and reserves. Although the share price has risen strongly since mid year we expect further upside given growing production and reserves.


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## Mofra (16 December 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Acorn out with a new holding annoucement, from 6% to 8% they have been increasing exposure in recent times. It's probably what's been pushing up the share price quite rapidly, I'm thinking that Acorn will aim to buy anywhere between 10% to 15% of the company (flicked through a few of their other investments, they don't seem the type to be the majority holder, but a "major minor" holder seems to be their style). Brilliant stuff and hopefully their interest will spur some other smaller cap focused funds to invest.



Seems they have ramped up the buying in recent times; price action again sharply upward, as it has been since SEA announced their Dec production targets look lokely to be met. It will be interesting to hear from the company in Jan about likely FY production targets.


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## BrightGreenGlow (17 December 2010)

The development update was announced today and all good news too. 19% increase in production and I think thats inline with their end of year target.... technically SEA is having a great run and should continue with the latest depth... good to be a holder right about now!


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## Mofra (24 December 2010)

Merry Christmas SEA shareholders, another positive announcement with an agreement signed with Haliburtan (alleviates some of the scheduling/resourcing issues) and Macquarie (extra funding for drilling) with SEA still holding a majority interest in the Nibrara area.

SEA management appear to be a very sound bunch of operators IMO, fits the company strategy perfectly.


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## cmxd (24 December 2010)

*Sundance stock jumps 7% on oil deal*

December 24, 2010 - 11:24AM
Sundance Energy has struck an agreement with US oil services giant Halliburton and Macquarie Group to hasten drilling work at its Niobara project in the United States.

Halliburton and Macquarie will participate in up to 40 per cent of the Sundance acreage at its Silo and Bull Canyon prospects in states of Wyoming and Colorado.

In morning trade, shares in Sundance were trading up 3.5 cents, or 6.9 per cent, at 54.5 cents.

Advertisement: Story continues below
Niobara is located in the Denver-Juleburg Basin, which extends into Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Kansas.

Adelaide-based Sundance will receive a non-refundable participation payment of $US2.4 million ($2.39 million) in cash, under the deal.

Halliburton and Macquarie will also pay up to $US3.9 million ($3.89 million) in development costs for a total consideration of about $US2500 per acre.

The agreement requires the participants to begin drilling a horizontal well within 90 days at Niobara share prospect in Colorado.

Niobrara is prospective for oil and natural gas.

Halliburton and Macquarie will be able to earn up to a combined 40 per cent of Sundance's working interest in both prospects by drilling a number of wells.

"Sundance retains operations of the prospects and an overriding royalty interest, while Halliburton will provide certain project management services for the development and evaluation of each of the earning wells," it said.

From:"http://www.smh.com.au/business/sundance-stock-jumps-7-on-oil-deal-20101224-196xt.html"


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## Assasin (24 December 2010)

Well thats a nice Christmas gift. These guys are great deal makers.
Any bets on who's SP can go higher on %'s next year. AUT or SEA or even EKA?
Merry Christmas everyone and thank you all for your contributions.:xmaswave


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## BrightGreenGlow (24 December 2010)

Great deal..... offload 40% and cash in again. Market loved it too... another 52 week high recorded and back to strong pressure on buyers.  Merry Christmas


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## ParleVouFrancois (24 December 2010)

Merry Christmas everyone, brilliant announcement, cheers to Condog for highlighting this company a while back to me when it was under 35 cents per share (traded in and out a few times so I'm not up 100% yet but getting close!) I'd shout you a beer but I live in the middle of nowhere so you'll have to make do with a shoutout on the SEA thread. I remember that you said you couldn't buy any SEA considering capital gains tax on AUT, so even more props for not holding the share you're spruiking!

PVF.


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## xyzedarteerf (24 December 2010)

cmxd said:


> *Sundance stock jumps 7% on oil deal*
> 
> In morning trade, shares in Sundance were trading up 3.5 cents, or 6.9 per cent, at 54.5 cents.
> 
> From:"http://www.smh.com.au/business/sundance-stock-jumps-7-on-oil-deal-20101224-196xt.html"




These prices seems to be SDL not SEA.


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## justiceotp (24 December 2010)

Yes it is referring to SDL by mistake and if you read the SDL announcements they got a boost in share price and a speeding ticket for it. Makes you wonder if SEA would have gone up further had they been buying SEA and not SDL in mistake. 
SDL announcement below. someone screwed up big time.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101224/pdf/41vx2w2b3fpjb1.pdf


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## condog (25 December 2010)

Once again SEA prove to be brilliant at making deals to offload risk and cost to others. These guys are absolutely incredible. And the acerages they control imo are top notch. 

Euroz valuation $1.05 apparently.


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## Flipper (29 December 2010)

Watching SEA this morning has made the transition back to work after the long long weekend a pleasure!!! Just hit a new all time high of 83c with a fair bit of resistance around the 80c mark!


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## BrightGreenGlow (29 December 2010)

Just doubled my money today which is always good news... this may be off the back of the new article posted here before and the correction of the prices. Once again x10 the pressure on the buyers which is anyways good and doesn't look like pulling back. End of year should be good for SEA.


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## adobee (29 December 2010)

SEA looking really good.. Halliburton JV partner just shows what there acerages have to offer...  Just wish I had more money for all these Eagleford & Niobrara players..


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## condog (29 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Just doubled my money today which is always good news... this may be off the back of the new article posted here before and the correction of the prices. Once again x10 the pressure on the buyers which is anyways good and doesn't look like pulling back. End of year should be good for SEA.




Its on the back of the JV with Halburton and Macquarie, which is another amazing deal done by SEA. These guys are absolutely brilliant. I dont think this will be the last of it either. If they sure up the Nior... thier reserves will go through the roof and I would expect a significant rerating. 

Disc-dont hold but have in past, and expect to soon.


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## Flipper (30 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Just doubled my money today which is always good news... this may be off the back of the new article posted here before and the correction of the prices. Once again x10 the pressure on the buyers which is anyways good and doesn't look like pulling back. End of year should be good for SEA.




What happened to all that buying pressure? It certainly didn't look like dropping below that 80c mark early on yesterday. With that SEA Euroz valuation at $1.05 i'm sure a fair few will be topping up or re-entering this morning. Looks like a good opportunity.
Condog is this the moment you've been waiting for?


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## RaymondJ (30 December 2010)

SEA had a new share issue of 3.6 million or thereabouts so that probably wouldnt have helped the problem today. It did hard yards all day. Im exhausted just watching it.
Buyers and sellers eyeballing each other all day!! Its a problem everone wants to get in half a cent in front. Anyway with the share offer over meybee well have a better time tomorrow.
Dont pannick!!


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## chiasm (31 December 2010)

And did I read correctly that the directors sold a few million dollars worth of shares as well (I'm still kind of new to this). Either way I took an opportunity to buy into SEA today.


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## RaymondJ (31 December 2010)

chiasm said:


> And did I read correctly that the directors sold a few million dollars worth of shares as well (I'm still kind of new to this). Either way I took an opportunity to buy into SEA today.




Hi there Im no expert but Im also in SEA and if you bought in today I think you got it at a bargain. I read the announcement to the stock exchange about the directors but im pretty sure they were options that had come due and had to be exercised by the due date. The new share distribution im sure would have a diluting affect on the price because they offloaded about 3.6 million the other day and I was watching so I saw them go through mostly in one hit which gave the share price a flogging I can tell you.
Anyway the company has good prospects for 2010 and is debt free. I think the new shares were a second part of a capital raising to fund the new well drilling and prospecting in the US. After a bad day today the share price sank 1.5c but so did a lot of shares and buy more than that. Anyway I hope this helps, check their website.


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## bennywizard (31 December 2010)

topped up today and looking forward to next year


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## condog (1 January 2011)

i think its dirt cheap given the deal theyve just doen and when you compare it on several other metrics, including likely reserves, likely production and current acerage.


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## stevensaul (4 January 2011)

condog said:


> Once again SEA prove to be brilliant at making deals to offload risk and cost to others. These guys are absolutely incredible. And the acerages they control imo are top notch.
> 
> Euroz valuation $1.05 apparently.




Hi everyone,

Just new to this so wondering when you use the valuation of $1.05 when is it predicted to reach this mark? I am currently holding AUT and trying to get a feel for SEA as well.

Cheers,
Steve


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## condog (4 January 2011)

stevensaul said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> Just new to this so wondering when you use the valuation of $1.05 when is it predicted to reach this mark? I am currently holding AUT and trying to get a feel for SEA as well.
> 
> ...




Its a vluation / target which to me means it basically sometime between now and 6 months.

Personally SEA to me right now is worth around the $1mark, so its imo undervalued.


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## Market Depth (4 January 2011)

Been watching SEA, for a couple of weeks now. I don't own any BTW. And it's travelling along very nicely, beautiful chart. Certainly a trend pattern to learn from, for all the aspiring trend traders out there.


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## Mofra (5 January 2011)

I would think the 900 BOPD(e) target for Dec was driving much of the recent run (and the release stating they will achieve the target). If price movement was to take a breather awaiting further guidance from management I would see that as a healthy sign TBH, given the stock really is running on fundamentals. 

Given their performance thus far, I'm more confident in the management team of SEA than I am of any of the 14 bluechips I hold, despite what is (I assume) a fairly significant gap in salary.


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## RaymondJ (5 January 2011)

Mofra said:


> I would think the 900 BOPD(e) target for Dec was driving much of the recent run (and the release stating they will achieve the target). If price movement was to take a breather awaiting further guidance from management I would see that as a healthy sign TBH, given the stock really is running on fundamentals.
> 
> Given their performance thus far, I'm more confident in the management team of SEA than I am of any of the 14 bluechips I hold, despite what is (I assume) a fairly significant gap in salary.




Hi there SEA doesnt seem to be doing a great deal. I sold out at 0.79 today and the trading is very low in volume. Volume has been low with very little buyer pressure except for one day and I think that all had to do with a newspaper article and since then its been steadily declining although in spurts. I dont know what the problem is but there is not enough interest in the coy. Meybee its got something to do with the reserves in USA not being depleted as fast as thought they actuall are using less oil that anticipated.
Anyway Ill still keep my eye on it good luck it closed the day at 0.77


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## condog (6 January 2011)

Mofra said:


> Given their performance thus far, I'm more confident in the management team of SEA than I am of any of the 14 bluechips I hold, despite what is (I assume) a fairly significant gap in salary.




Yeh a friend of mine bought SEA and AUT on my say so and last year his big portfolio of very good largecaps basically went sideways whilst his small holding of AUT and SEA made him over 150,000. 

One has to ask questions about what is risk. IS having many hundreds of K's exposed to the market going no where low or high risk, whilst small holdings are getting huge returns.

I know what my answer is. Id have the large part in cash and just expose the small part to the market. ????  makes you wonder whether traditional assessments of risk are valid.


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## condog (6 January 2011)

Euroz have updated valuation to $1.20 based on the higher oil prices of late, plus what they forsee going forward.

And $1.66 if oil hits $1.20 boe


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## Mofra (7 January 2011)

condog said:


> And $1.66 if oil hits $1.20 boe



Can you please clarify this last bit? Seems to be a typo. Much appreciated.

Will be interesting to read the assumptions that Euroz have used - obviously 900bopd was trumpeted as the daily production to the end of Dec 10, but the October presentation reports 2,000 BOPD as the target for Dec 11.
They note existing assets have a development potential of 4,250 BOPD.


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## condog (7 January 2011)

Euroz put out a table with thier oil stock  valuations at various oil prices. 

They project if oil goes to $120 per barrell (sorry for typo) that sea will be worth $1.66


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## yma (7 January 2011)

No too sure if my calculation is correct, if the oil price is 90， is it mean the share price should something around 1.24?


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## Magic Man (8 January 2011)

im a little worried about this stock.. all these valuations etc look great but the price has pulled back. Is this just a consildation period?

Condog, if you dont mind me asking. Are u buying SEA at these levels?


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## adobee (8 January 2011)

I have been buying SEA 70c up to 82 c and back down again now... probably bought a bit high but I dont think this is a stock you are buying to worry about s/t ups an downs..  6-12 months and this will be booming IMO Eagleford is hot & Niobrara is going to be off the hook   ... the JV partners are no joke..   (BUYING SEA TXN EKA)


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> im a little worried about this stock.. all these valuations etc look great but the price has pulled back. Is this just a consildation period?
> 
> Condog, if you dont mind me asking. Are u buying SEA at these levels?




Magic Man, I'm sure the Dog would be buying 24/7 if he had the cash. Let's face it, it's a great stock and far under its intrinsic and rating. Im sure you will look back at this topic in 6 months and have a laugh. Do your own research but PS: BUYING would be smart I feel.


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## RaymondJ (8 January 2011)

condog said:


> Euroz put out a table with thier oil stock  valuations at various oil prices.
> 
> They project if oil goes to $120 per barrell (sorry for typo) that sea will be worth $1.66




Heres a thought, the demand for oil is falling due in large part to the glogal financial crises in the U.S and Europe and everywhere else it has affected. The oil reserves in the U.S are currently not  being depleted nearly as fast as thought. The global recovery is going much slower that hoped in the U.S and in the Eurozone/U.K.The U.S is making large cuts to its military machine by billions. The military machine is a big user of fuel all over. The price of oil is going sideways. Im not sure how these people would predict oil would go to 120 pb, what are they basing that forecast on?  Im not saying it wont happen but hey for the foreable future what is going to drive oil to those prices? Please Id like to know and if its reasonable assumption then Ill buy into this stock too. Anyway I didnt want to put a gloomy picture on this but thats the news as far as Ive read. Thanks for the news


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## Miner (8 January 2011)

I read the SEA reports and got a feeling that the trading halt is probably to provide an update on December production.

Which is probably is too good for them to put a TH break

Condog - hats off to you mate and your research.

It is pity that I do not hold but it is not possible to spread hands on each share I look once they have gone up !!


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## Magic Man (8 January 2011)

What trading halt are u talking about?


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## luap77 (9 January 2011)

SEA in the process of waking up IMO. Share price is in the drifting in and out of "sleep" phase. Give it until February to really kick up, which is when all interested parties will be back at the table IMO. Been in this since sub-10c, and there is still plenty of upside IMO. Worth some research, starting with company announcements, broker reports, etc


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## BrightGreenGlow (9 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Heres a thought, the demand for oil is falling due in large part to the glogal financial crises in the U.S and Europe and everywhere else it has affected. The oil reserves in the U.S are currently not  being depleted nearly as fast as thought. The global recovery is going much slower that hoped in the U.S and in the Eurozone/U.K.The U.S is making large cuts to its military machine by billions. The military machine is a big user of fuel all over. The price of oil is going sideways. Im not sure how these people would predict oil would go to 120 pb, what are they basing that forecast on?  Im not saying it wont happen but hey for the foreable future what is going to drive oil to those prices? Please Id like to know and if its reasonable assumption then Ill buy into this stock too. Anyway I didnt want to put a gloomy picture on this but thats the news as far as Ive read. Thanks for the news




You are forgetting about asain and in particular Chinese demand. This is a massive factor!


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## Magic Man (10 January 2011)

Sundance Energy Development update... everyones thoughts??


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## Mofra (10 January 2011)

condog said:


> Euroz put out a table with thier oil stock  valuations at various oil prices.
> 
> They project if oil goes to $120 per barrell (sorry for typo) that sea will be worth $1.66



Cheers Condog 



adobee said:


> I have been buying SEA 70c up to 82 c and back down again now... probably bought a bit high but I dont think this is a stock you are buying to worry about s/t ups an downs..  6-12 months and this will be booming IMO Eagleford is hot & Niobrara is going to be off the hook   ... the JV partners are no joke..   (BUYING SEA TXN EKA)



Holding the first two, rushing off to research EKA if they have similar profiles


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## RaymondJ (10 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> You are forgetting about asain and in particular Chinese demand. This is a massive factor!




Really thats good how much oil did china import this year and what are their predicted imports for the comming year?


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## BrightGreenGlow (10 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Really thats good how much oil did china import this year and what are their predicted imports for the comming year?




Raymond, China used to be an exporter of Oil... now since the 90s it's an importer... and due to their massive population and big push for automobiles this figure would be massive... I'll have a look for the coming year.... maybe Condog can help us out here with his proven knowledge and research.


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## Magic Man (10 January 2011)

And im also sure everyone would love Condogs thoughts on SEAs development update posted today??


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## RaymondJ (10 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Sundance Energy Development update... everyones thoughts??




Im not sure Magic Man but heres a good article from the Wall St Journal


By Alison Tudor
China’s quest for global energy resources is shifting into higher gear as the country’s giant oil companies seal bigger, more complex deals to help fuel their country’s economic boom.

Bankers see China’s national oil producers increasingly buying companies, not just assets, and using their deep pockets to acquire technology to extract harder-to-reach resources. While they’re likely to continue combing emerging markets for energy deals in 2011, they may be tempted to hunt for opportunity elsewhere””including in or near the U.S.


Bloomberg News
Cnooc is among the Chinese state energy companies shopping for assets.Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says diesel, gasoline and gasoil demand in China is rising about 8% annually. China’s appetite for oil won’t peak until 2025, according to UBS.

To meet that demand, China’s biggest energy companies have gone on a buying spree. Last year was a record year for China’s oil and gas acquisitions, with $24.3 billion in deals, up from $17.1 billion in 2009, according to data provider Dealogic.

The largest Chinese deal, state-owned China Petrochemical’s acquisition of a 40% stake in Repsol’s Brazilian oil assets for $7.1 billion, signaled China’s expanding profile in Latin America, where it bought more assets than any other nation last year. It also showed the Chinese were willing to pay more than the market expected.

“The richest pickings are appearing in South America and to some extent Africa and Indonesia,” said Stephen Gore, head of M&A and corporate finance Asia at UBS.

China’s oil companies are busy diversifying their sources of hydrocarbons, and bankers say they will continue to have an edge in jurisdictions where U.S. and European oil companies have found it politically difficult to seal deals, such as in Sudan, Myanmar, Iran and Syria.

They also may expand in the Gulf of Mexico. Independent oil companies are likely to sell assets there, say bankers, as insurance costs and regulation escalate after BP’s Macondo blowout in April, which resulted in the biggest offshore oil spill in U.S. history.

“Who is going to buy? I posit the Chinese will acquire significant stakes in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 12 to 24 months,” said Peter O’Malley, head of resources and energy for Asia Pacific at HSBC.

State energy giant Cnooc already has bought small stakes in deep-water projects in the Gulf owned by Norway’s Statoil.

Given that three-quarters of the world’s exploration and production companies are headquartered in North America, the Chinese are likely to bid for U.S. companies, bankers said.

“All the Chinese majors will be in North America in the next two years,” O’Malley said.

Cnooc’s ill-fated 2005 bid for California’s Unocal, which collapsed after some U.S. lawmakers opposed the deal on national security grounds, underscored the political risk that China’s energy sector faces in hunting for U.S. deals. Yet in 2010, Cnooc acquired oil-and-gas assets in the Eagle Ford Shale project in South Texas for $1.1 billion.

One area that Chinese buyers could focus on is projects that use new technology to extract energy from unconventional sources such as oil sands or gas trapped in coal. Such projects are attractive to Chinese buyers because it gives them a chance not only to gather hydrocarbons but also to learn new technology to develop China’s potentially massive gas reserves. Global firms, meanwhile, are eager to bring in minority partners with deep pockets, such as the Chinese, to minimize financial risk.

“In the shale gas industry, there is a large amount of technology transfer from North America to Asia,” said Roger Kennedy, head of energy and natural resources in Asia Pacific for J.P. Morgan Chase.

A less controversial way to acquire hydrocarbons would be to partner with the world’s super majors, such as BP.

International oil companies are rebalancing their portfolios by cutting their exposure to some jurisdictions, as Repsol is doing in Latin America, and adjusting their asset mix to take into consideration long-term trends in commodity prices.

“As many oil and gas companies examine the continued re-balancing of their portfolios, acquisition opportunities will be available for Asian oil and gas companies,” Kennedy said.

The largest Chinese oil firms are being more flexible in choosing targets, bankers say. Instead of shipping products straight to China, they are bidding on assets that give them a hedge against a broad increase in commodity prices over the long term, and chips to trade for other commodities that China needs in the short term.

“The Chinese are increasingly looking at assets that they might be able to exchange for stakes in other projects, like pieces on a chess board,” said Todd Marin, head of investment banking in Asia Pacific for J.P. Morgan.

China’s state-owned Sinochem Group bought a 40% stake in the Peregrino field off the coast of Brazil from Statoil for $3.07 billion in May. It may well be that none of that oil goes back to China after production starts next year, said one banker, but instead is traded for other products.

Chinese firms also are increasingly competing among themselves for the less-political deals, rather than the state picking a champion, making it more likely they will be successful in auctions for assets, bankers said. An early example of this shift came when Sinochem saw off competition from Cnooc for the Peregrino stake.

“We’ve seen deals where the’ve been head- to-head against each other to the extent of undermining each other’s offers,” Gore said.

China, Deal Journal Asia


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## RaymondJ (10 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Raymond, China used to be an exporter of Oil... now since the 90s it's an importer... and due to their massive population and big push for automobiles this figure would be massive... I'll have a look for the coming year.... maybe Condog can help us out here with his proven knowledge and research.




I yield to your greater knowledge sir you are more knowledgable on this subject than I thankyou for sharing it with me. Enough ass kissing have you seen the article Ive put up on this  thread from the Wall St Journal it would seem that China is hunting for oil and oil companies to buy!! This should provide some interesting  news in the next year. Good luck


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## BrightGreenGlow (10 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> I yield to your greater knowledge sir you are more knowledgable on this subject than I thankyou for sharing it with me. Enough ass kissing have you seen the article Ive put up on this  thread from the Wall St Journal it would seem that China is hunting for oil and oil companies to buy!! This should provide some interesting  news in the next year. Good luck




I don't really know much at all. Good article though and yeah I read they are looking for takeovers... maybe EKA, AUT and SEA could be on the agenda... hopefully not just yet though!


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## zzaaxxss3401 (11 January 2011)

SEA appears to be range trading (upwards) nicely.


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## BrightGreenGlow (11 January 2011)

Nice graph, however, it just broke out of that range....


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## zzaaxxss3401 (11 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Nice graph, however, it just broke out of that range....



I'm not looking at the intra-day range (since it broke out of that in November). If it closes (end of trading day) at or above 73c then it's still within range.


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## RaymondJ (11 January 2011)

SEA is struggling along today, not goin up, not goin down much just struggling as is some other good stocks like SDL their all just struggling. I think the markets in general are all frightened about the Euro debt thing again and not to mention the floods in Qld. Toowoomba and surrounds which is were I live and now I know why their worried!!


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## bennywizard (11 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> SEA is struggling along today, not goin up, not goin down much just struggling as is some other good stocks like SDL their all just struggling. I think the markets in general are all frightened about the Euro debt thing again and not to mention the floods in Qld. Toowoomba and surrounds which is were I live and now I know why their worried!!




Personally I think it has more to do with other companies like AUT and EKA making a run, the attention seems to shift between all these great companies and others, I wish I had more to invest in SEA as I see huge value here. I hold and am happily waiting for for future rises in SEA


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## BrightGreenGlow (16 January 2011)

I don't know much about technical indicators... all I know is from this chart we have had 2 dips/corrections/retracements followed by 2 very strong upward runs. Last week or 2 has been the 3rd dip/correction/retracement... so could this be the start of another 15 - 20c run? Looks very possible as the fundamentals are still impressive.


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## ob1kinobi (17 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I don't know much about technical indicators... all I know is from this chart we have had 2 dips/corrections/retracements followed by 2 very strong upward runs. Last week or 2 has been the 3rd dip/correction/retracement... so could this be the start of another 15 - 20c run? Looks very possible as the fundamentals are still impressive.




Sure it's possible, but there's still not a great deal of buying pressure at the mo. Enthusiastic buyers are what propels the SP up.

The Gap up on the 29/12 exhausted the last move and the buyers that were there before Xmas have got there lot.

Maybe this week will bring new buyers into the market. 

There seems to be short-term support at 0.72 if the price begins to move sideways.


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## Magic Man (17 January 2011)

Hey there. Just wondered everyones thoughts on the production update announced today?


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## BrightGreenGlow (18 January 2011)

The announcement yesterday showed solid production growth and the market since has gobbled it up. Just looking at the depth now with 4x more buyers. Great pressure is back on for another solid run. Just as I predicted in that chart, hopefully it comes to fruition.


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## Magic Man (18 January 2011)

John.

Why is this thread so quiet.. is everyone off this stock?


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## adobee (19 January 2011)

I am on SEA still.. currently holding at entry price of 82.5 (bit high) it hasnt been my favourite for last couple of weeks as it fell back on my purchase..  Looking good now though and if buy sell spread stays as is today could really move upwards, I think its going to be a hold for about 6-9 months to see big growth.. once more wells come into play and news on success of Niobrara market is going to take alot more notice..


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## breaker (19 January 2011)

Looks like .80 is support ...it has been slow


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## Mofra (19 January 2011)

I've taken a small amount of stock off the market, now a free-carry trade on my remaining holding (which is still my largest due to price appreciation). 

The consolidation phase seems to have shaken the remaining profit takers out, and I'd expect the market to start looking to price in 2,000 BOEPD production as per the Dec 11 target from past announcements, given previosu targets have been met and management continue to put in place partnerships/arrangements that add value to existing acreages.


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## Assasin (19 January 2011)

breaker said:


> Looks like .80 is support ...it has been slow




I too was a little frustrated with slow progress but I think that was due to being a long term holder of AUT and watching them fire off new highs weekly.
However, I have only been a holder of SEA for 4 months and the SP has more than doubled. That is brilliant and I am confident we have a long way to go yet with great management and a strong business plan being enacted.
There's certainly a lot of blue chip holders that would love SEA's growth and prospects.
Very happy holder, thanks to all posters.


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## breaker (19 January 2011)

Hope your right Assasin, AUT off the boil today ...I hold both


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## condog (20 January 2011)

euroz update SEA valuation to 1.22

Investment Case:

Given the continued strong production results and the lack of geological risk we expect
shale sector tailwinds will gain further momentum going forward with companies
involved in the proven commercial shale oil plays like SEA to be the key beneﬁciaries.
Future reserve, production and earnings growth are very likely for SEA.

Production is forecast to double over the next year from primarily its Bakken assets, 900-
2,000 boepd, >90% oil. The Niobrara shale should add to this proﬁle from FY’12.

We are very positive on SEA retaining strong equity positions in its Niobrara acreage
(25% average) for its development drilling program, set to ramp up in the June Q.
The Niobrara oil shale is poised to be the next big oil shale in the US based on recent
transactions and well results – SEA has a high quality >10,000 acre position which in time
could well dwarf its producing Bakken acreage.

We expect SEA will book a large increase to its 1P and 2P reserves (say >50%) and
commission its inaugural 3P reserves in March. Due to the low risk nature of these
resource plays, 3P reserves are a good guide to future 2P and 1P reserves – we estimate
SEA will book >45 mmbbls 3P valuing it at a very cheap <$5/boe EV/3P reserves.


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 January 2011)

That's nearly a 25% upgrade condog. Very impressive and euroz looks very happy and confident about SEA


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## BrightGreenGlow (24 January 2011)

Gee SEA really pulled back off it's high last week and the sellers really took the profits and really gave up their shares cheap. Seems to be good support around 74/75c so hopefully we can bounce off from here on the next production news. AUT has definitely taking the limelight off SEA it seems. I chose to bet on SEA and wait for AUT to drop due to placements... we will have to see what happens. SEA is due for another bounce though and hopefully we can get oil back over that $90 level.


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## ParleVouFrancois (24 January 2011)

RE: Bright green glow, why do you think AUT is going to have more placements? I'd think that they are fully funded for their current drilling programs and more placements may be coming but only for acquisitions.

Also you've implied that they are going to drop after a placement, last time I checked AUT rose strongly after the placements at $1.60. They paid a dollar and got $1.50 worth of assets so actually the value of each share is higher after more are issued (seems counter intuitive, but if you buy stuff that is not only relatively cheap but returns 50% p.a. initially on a "bad well", any capital deployed is obviously going to be rerated). They are sitting on some of the craziest results in the Eagle Ford Shale so it makes sense that they are focusing just on one small area.

Also imo the comparison between SEA and AUT is overblown a little, both have extremely different business models when you compare them, AUT's is just to focus on the current interests, but SEA's is to buy cheap acerage (and lots of it), shore up reserves then onsell (maybe keeping a royalty). The only similarity the two have is that they are in the oil industry, they have massively different models and I doubt it's all that possible to make a direct comparison between the two given the completely different aims of them. I do agree that both do look undervalued at today's prices though (cheers ConDog for the numbers on AUT, might've sold out before now if it wasn't for you ).

PVF.


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## BrightGreenGlow (24 January 2011)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> RE: Bright green glow, why do you think AUT is going to have more placements? I'd think that they are fully funded for their current drilling programs and more placements may be coming but only for acquisitions.
> 
> Also you've implied that they are going to drop after a placement, last time I checked AUT rose strongly after the placements at $1.60. They paid a dollar and got $1.50 worth of assets so actually the value of each share is higher after more are issued (seems counter intuitive, but if you buy stuff that is not only relatively cheap but returns 50% p.a. initially on a "bad well", any capital deployed is obviously going to be rerated). They are sitting on some of the craziest results in the Eagle Ford Shale so it makes sense that they are focusing just on one small area.
> 
> ...




Sorry I meant the second round coming online tomorrow as the placement, and yes AUT did drop for around 5 days after the placement came online in December. They are totally different in respect to acreage but both are proven and quality.


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## RaymondJ (25 January 2011)

Unconvincing performance from SEA today on very low turnover. It looks like its being pumped up by some people.  Im not sure but it might go backward for a while as the price of oil is going sideways again, mainly due to the world oil reserves being over stocked and the Saudi's playing with the oil output again. The U.S has oversupply in their reserves at the moment and China is heading into a week of holidays. This is all probably temporary but for how long? The oil futures are down a bit as well. Anyone got any idea on whats going on?

Cheers


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## Magic Man (25 January 2011)

I feel your sentiment Raymond. i to am a little concerned as i bought a big parcel of SEA at 72 Cents. However i believe that if the management of this company is as good as everyone says it is then there must be plenty more upside left in this one. Maquarie has also backed this stock and i do believe that they do know what there doing. Euroz also has a valuation which has risen to $1.22 on this stock. I have also heard Roger Montgomery say that we may be in the midst of an oil crises and from what ive seen of Montgomery he is almost normally always correct. SEA has had a huge run and may just be catching its breath.. i would like it however if we could get a bit more posting action on this forum.. its dried up a little lately.. Condog hit us with something!!!


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## RaymondJ (25 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Unconvincing performance from SEA today on very low turnover. It looks like its being pumped up by some people.  Im not sure but it might go backward for a while as the price of oil is going sideways again, mainly due to the world oil reserves being over stocked and the Saudi's playing with the oil output again. The U.S has oversupply in their reserves at the moment and China is heading into a week of holidays. This is all probably temporary but for how long? The oil futures are down a bit as well. Anyone got any idea on whats going on?
> 
> Cheers




Update I didnt see that Beech Energy has sold 11.7million shares of Sea and ceased to be a substantial holder. I wonder why - any ideas your comments and knowledge would be much appreciated.


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## RaymondJ (25 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> I feel your sentiment Raymond. i to am a little concerned as i bought a big parcel of SEA at 72 Cents. However i believe that if the management of this company is as good as everyone says it is then there must be plenty more upside left in this one. Maquarie has also backed this stock and i do believe that they do know what there doing. Euroz also has a valuation which has risen to $1.22 on this stock. I have also heard Roger Montgomery say that we may be in the midst of an oil crises and from what ive seen of Montgomery he is almost normally always correct. SEA has had a huge run and may just be catching its breath.. i would like it however if we could get a bit more posting action on this forum.. its dried up a little lately.. Condog hit us with something!!!




You have done well then I also bought at 72c and sold yesterday at 795 so Im not holding at the moment. I would like to however, I missed out yesterday when I put a bid in but had to leave and when I got back it had just missed oh well there are other days. I feel good about this stock too but I think you might have to hold for a bit longer yet, just on the bell I saw 180,000 share parcel get bought!! 

Cheers


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## Assasin (27 January 2011)

Aut's booming time seems to be sucking the life out of any other efs stock atm.
Really think these are undervalued.


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## adobee (28 January 2011)

SEA looking pretty good at the moment looks like it could break out any time.. or monday if markets dont die tonight in US ..  IMO  took the plunge and picked a few up 79-80c..


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## RaymondJ (28 January 2011)

adobee said:


> SEA looking pretty good at the moment looks like it could break out any time.. or monday if markets dont die tonight in US ..  IMO  took the plunge and picked a few up 79-80c..




Yes you could be right but I think ill wait till next week Ive been caught by this stock before at this level, but it is a good stock so I will be buying but meybee not at this level although im probably wrong but nervous about this stock at this level. I think its stagnating on news from US about surplus reserves of crude. I think this is temporary as the US is entering a new cycle which will see greater sales and China will be back with vengence after the lunar new year.

Cheers


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## skivvy (29 January 2011)

Happy to see SEA break through resistance at 80c and close above this level for the week. Without a broader market drop, the next leg up should continue on from here in my opinion.  We will see, a hold above 80c from now should be sustainable.


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## RaymondJ (29 January 2011)

skivvy said:


> Happy to see SEA break through resistance at 80c and close above this level for the week. Without a broader market drop, the next leg up should continue on from here in my opinion.  We will see, a hold above 80c from now should be sustainable.




Im with ya but SEA has done this before and collapsed back to a support level of somewhere around 72 to 74c  like SDL and stocks like EKA this stock seems to be a target for a group of people that pump it and short sell to manipulate the price, thats just my opinion of course, so Ill wait and see, but I do like this stock as long as it retains enough percentage in its wells.
CHEERS


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## tech/a (29 January 2011)

Technically SEA is topping.
I think its likely to struggle making new highs.


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## mr. jeff (30 January 2011)

Here is a picture to put above the words.



Large volume put through 6 days ago. 
Beach Energy sold off 11M shares at 0.75 on market tfr. and retain 4% holding of SEA register


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## BrightGreenGlow (31 January 2011)

SEA struggled around the 60c mark and some analysts said it had topped out and to run due to it being a resistance level and I agree it was if you look at the charts over 4 years.

However, 80 shouldn't be a top and if so why? I keep seeing better results, great backings and good technicals for my amateur level anyways.


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## RaymondJ (31 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> SEA struggled around the 60c mark and some analysts said it had topped out and to run due to it being a resistance level and I agree it was if you look at the charts over 4 years.
> 
> However, 80 shouldn't be a top and if so why? I keep seeing better results, great backings and good technicals for my amateur level anyways.




It should have better results but Im of the opinion its being sold down by a group of traders. If you take a look at its chart in recent weeks and a month approx it has dropped to the low 70's and then goes back to around 80 to 82c and then gets sold off again. If you watched a lot of the trades going through today it sure looked like it was being pumped up and Ive been caught holding at that level before. Anyway it may all change when they get a couple more wells on line.

CHEERS


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## skivvy (31 January 2011)

I was fairly confident that SEA would hold the 80c level as support as I said in my last post but after reading tech/a's post I went back and checked my technicals so see whether I was missing something with the chart.  I agree that after hitting a high of 88c the SP has pulled back to retest support at 75c but has moved up again to retest resistance at 80c.  With a close above 80c on Friday, a higher high again today and the close at the high of the day, the support looks ok.  I can see a possible head and shoulders reversal is possible but will need to see if the right shoulder is completed and the neckline is broken at the support of 75c.  If it does then time to take profits for a while and sit back and wait for the next move.  RSI is still above the midline and the short term trend is still up with volumes fairly average.  Tech/a jump in a tell me if I am missing something here, I am still learning the ropes? Anyway just my interpretation of the charts for you all to assess. Good luck to all holders.


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## condog (31 January 2011)

ITs consolidating before going again imo. A lot happening on its acres, and i wouldnt be surprised if they have another new deal up thier sleeves soon. After all these guys have a very strong history of deal making.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (1 February 2011)

Looking at a share price chart, it doesn't really look likes it's struggled too much anywhere. It's simply been tracking within a price channel.


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## Assasin (1 February 2011)

Looks like last night's quaterly was well recieved with strong buying this morning. Hopefully, this takes us to the next level.


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## adobee (1 February 2011)

looks to have gone through that top pretty well now..   
will be interesting to see if it can go through 88c...  and get a new all time high..
Dont think it will take much to push through..


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## RaymondJ (1 February 2011)

adobee said:


> looks to have gone through that top pretty well now..
> will be interesting to see if it can go through 88c...  and get a new all time high..
> Dont think it will take much to push through..




It doesnt look like strong buying to me take a look at the amounts being sold and at this time the sellers outnumber the buyers, I think its a good time to be carefull here. just my opinion of course and take a look for yourself.

Cheers


----------



## adobee (1 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> It doesnt look like strong buying to me take a look at the amounts being sold and at this time the sellers outnumber the buyers, I think its a good time to be carefull here. just my opinion of course and take a look for yourself.
> 
> Cheers




are we looking at the same stock ???


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (1 February 2011)

adobee said:


> are we looking at the same stock ???




I agree it was a great day and solid buying. SEA kept dropping back due to those extra shares etc...


----------



## Magic Man (1 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I agree it was a great day and solid buying. SEA kept dropping back due to those extra shares etc...




Bright Green thankyou for the great insight into SEA.. do you hold?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (1 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Bright Green thankyou for the great insight into SEA.. do you hold?




Yeah I do and bought in very cheap and topped up a month ago. It's easy to prop up a stock you hold but SEA has a long way to go IMO and today showed that. Hope you're on them too, but like everyone says, don't trust me check the reports.


----------



## condog (1 February 2011)

i been saying it since 10c and right now its just as good. Probably no longer a 9 bagger or 10 bagger, but definitely still imo got lots of good stuff in the bag.

Just give it time and if oil price remains strong let them do thier thing and on wards, upwards SEa will go.


----------



## skivvy (1 February 2011)

With you there condog, SEA has a lot going on and the response to the quarterly has certainly pushed the SP into new territory today, (if that is the reason for the volume and SP spike).  Technically the upper bollinger has been broken on my chart so a pull back to 85 ish may occur in the next few days but I am not holding my breath for that.  I think the next leg up has just begun and a steady climb is ahead.


----------



## condog (2 February 2011)

skivvy said:


> With you there condog, SEA has a lot going on and the response to the quarterly has certainly pushed the SP into new territory today, (if that is the reason for the volume and SP spike).  Technically the upper bollinger has been broken on my chart so a pull back to 85 ish may occur in the next few days but I am not holding my breath for that.  I think the next leg up has just begun and a steady climb is ahead.




The quarterly imo seemed good enough for a broker upgrade, which should be out tommorrow. If so expect some renewed buying imo, before its next consolidation around 90c. No charts, just common sense.

Disc - i dont hold, but relatives do.


----------



## thesnowyforest (2 February 2011)

Hey condog,

Had a few questions I'd like to ask you. Can I email u?

Also, I've been watching SSN and was wanting to know ur thoughts on that play?


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

thesnowyforest said:


> Hey condog,
> 
> Had a few questions I'd like to ask you. Can I email u?
> 
> Also, I've been watching SSN and was wanting to know ur thoughts on that play?




just privat message  me on here. SSN only has tiny reserves compared to sEA and imo sEa right now is far better. But SSN and TXN are two to keep an eye on.


----------



## condog (6 February 2011)

not mine but interesting perspective. thought it might be worth posting.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (7 February 2011)

Here's another perspective as to why it might dip:
1. Friday opened on the upper channel limit and bounced down.
2. RSI is slightly 'overbought' (above 70%)
3. MACD and signal lines converging


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (7 February 2011)

On lowish volume today we saw SEA dip > consolidate > rise. This was a great result today I believe, and the depth of buyers for tomorrow is a good sign of more consolidation and gearing up for the next lot of results.


----------



## Mofra (8 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> On lowish volume today we saw SEA dip > consolidate > rise. This was a great result today I believe, and the depth of buyers for tomorrow is a good sign of more consolidation and gearing up for the next lot of results.



It's been a substantial last run up, happy for a consolidation phase to commence. Seen it a number of times in the past year with SEA (since the cap raising anyways).


----------



## adobee (9 February 2011)

looking pretty good this morning.. buy sell is stacked pretty hard in the favour of sellers.. if not big orders come through I think it could push to a new high today.. IMO
was considering selling some expecting a retrace but will hold on for now..


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## Magic Man (9 February 2011)

Sea just hit the magical dollar mark!!!!!


----------



## justiceotp (9 February 2011)

Not only the Magical $1 mark but also the magical 100% gain mark for me 

Condog have you jumped on board with SEA thought you may have picked up a few when you sold a few of your AUT?

Holding AUT, SEA, EKA, SSN and MAK and very happy


----------



## adobee (10 February 2011)

sold out this morning at average of 97c ...
still looking very good for long term holders...
need the monies for avi but has been a great run for last couple of weeks..
will be watching for re-entry if possible at some point


----------



## Magic Man (10 February 2011)

What do u like about AVI?


----------



## adobee (10 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> What do u like about AVI?




Everything.. jump to the thread and have a look... plus need to take up my entitlement.. and fully load up..

Will look at re-entry sea in near future if there is retrace,,


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (11 February 2011)

From the development report. Good numbers with Hess providing up to 10 rigs for 2011. This is over double last year from Hess in the Goliath region.

The report states 7 drilling at the moment and 16 awaiting completion. I'm no expert but this seems good apart from the bad weather in the US. Market seemed to like it then dropped back late in the day.

Any thoughts?


----------



## skivvy (11 February 2011)

Agree BGG, nothing bad in the development update except the delays due to weather and wells waiting on fraccing and the like.  The news of Hess bringing in additional rigs into the Goliath prospect is good news and will get other wells into production quicker once the weather improves.  Plenty going on with the business including new wells and the horizontal drilling in the Niobrara and Pawnee prospects to keep this holder happy.
A slight move down on average volume is nothing to worry about and consolidation around 95c is not too disheartening.  A pull back to 90c will make me consider things a little closer but like the recent pull back in Aurora I dont see this as an unhealthy move.  A significant break of support at 90c on high volume and I will be out, but I am not seeing that happening yet.  Good luck to all holders.


----------



## condog (13 February 2011)

justiceotp said:


> Not only the Magical $1 mark but also the magical 100% gain mark for me
> 
> Condog have you jumped on board with SEA thought you may have picked up a few when you sold a few of your AUT?
> 
> Holding AUT, SEA, EKA, SSN and MAK and very happy




I pulled of a $2000 trade last week, but dont currently hold. I donated the after tax portion to world vision. 

So yeh ive been in, got out and dont presently hold. 
Right now its not part of my immediate strategy. But i will be in and out on the swings if i see them occuring and i will donate my profits to worldvision for the remainder of the year on SEA. Just something i feel like doing. I got to pay so much tax, i mose well give some to charity, before handing it over to Gillard to waste on NBN's and other communist centralised govt crap we just dont need. .


----------



## Miner (14 February 2011)

condog said:


> I pulled of a $2000 trade last week, but dont currently hold. I donated the after tax portion to world vision.
> 
> So yeh ive been in, got out and dont presently hold.
> Right now its not part of my immediate strategy. But i will be in and out on the swings if i see them occuring and i will donate my profits to worldvision for the remainder of the year on SEA. Just something i feel like doing. I got to pay so much tax, i mose well give some to charity, before handing it over to Gillard to waste on NBN's and other communist centralised govt crap we just dont need. .




good job Condog and congratulations for thinking of and actually doing the donation to World Vision. 
I hope you get more profits so that these charitable organisations are benefitted from your gains in SEA and others.

Regards


----------



## RaymondJ (14 February 2011)

Could be going for a dip soon Im thinking. Meybee its the weather over there and the price of oil on the NY Exchange but interest seems to be waning. I think Ill leave this alone for the next couple of days and watch.

CHEERS


----------



## skivvy (14 February 2011)

condog said:


> I pulled of a $2000 trade last week, but dont currently hold. I donated the after tax portion to world vision.
> 
> So yeh ive been in, got out and dont presently hold.
> Right now its not part of my immediate strategy. But i will be in and out on the swings if i see them occuring and i will donate my profits to worldvision for the remainder of the year on SEA. Just something i feel like doing. I got to pay so much tax, i mose well give some to charity, before handing it over to Gillard to waste on NBN's and other communist centralised govt crap we just dont need. .




Condog, you impress me again.  Your coverage of AUT has been exceptional and I have admired your attention to detail and willingness to share your knowledge over the last few months since joining ASF.  By donating your SEA profits to worldvision for the remainder of the year you have made me appreciate you, not only for your trading wisdom but also as a admirable person whom we all should look up to.  When I first started trading my mentor told me to reach a level of individual success and then to donate 10% of my profits. To this date I have not yet built up my capital to a level which I can truly commit this sort of value.  I hope over the coming years I improve my trading and then to be able to post as you do, where I am donating part of my profits to a worthy cause.  Condog you are a true champion of the stock market profession. Sincerely Skivvy


----------



## J&M (15 February 2011)

skivvy said:


> Condog, you impress me again.  Your coverage of AUT has been exceptional and I have admired your attention to detail and willingness to share your knowledge over the last few months since joining ASF.  By donating your SEA profits to worldvision for the remainder of the year you have made me appreciate you, not only for your trading wisdom but also as a admirable person whom we all should look up to.  When I first started trading my mentor told me to reach a level of individual success and then to donate 10% of my profits. To this date I have not yet built up my capital to a level which I can truly commit this sort of value.  I hope over the coming years I improve my trading and then to be able to post as you do, where I am donating part of my profits to a worthy cause.  Condog you are a true champion of the stock market profession. Sincerely Skivvy




Fully Agree and cant add anything to the comments


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

J&M said:


> Fully Agree and cant add anything to the comments




Cheers guys, thanks for your very kind words. I think we owe it to others to share our knowledge and to share our wealth.

The difference $560 pa, which is really only one or two small trades makes to thier lives is rediculous. Its water for a whole village, immunisations, food, and education for the family. When you look at it that way its the least we can do. $560 does for them what 50,000 would do for us.  
And when you sponsor children it gives it a real personal touch that your making a huge difference. Anyone who can afford it i urge you, give it a go.

When you pull off a trade and know its gunna change someones life forever , its such a good feeling and you get motivated to do it over and over and over.


----------



## skivvy (15 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Could be going for a dip soon Im thinking. Meybee its the weather over there and the price of oil on the NY Exchange but interest seems to be waning. I think Ill leave this alone for the next couple of days and watch.
> 
> CHEERS




Seems like you were spot on Raymond J, a slight pull back today to test support at 90c.  I have not been stopped out yet but it may happen tomorrow unless we see a bounce off support.  Not sure of the reasoning, maybe due to the drop in oil prices, traders moving funds into the likes of TXN or just impatience.  Anyway the next few days will be interesting and my med to long term outlook has not changed.


----------



## RaymondJ (16 February 2011)

skivvy said:


> Seems like you were spot on Raymond J, a slight pull back today to test support at 90c.  I have not been stopped out yet but it may happen tomorrow unless we see a bounce off support.  Not sure of the reasoning, maybe due to the drop in oil prices, traders moving funds into the likes of TXN or just impatience.  Anyway the next few days will be interesting and my med to long term outlook has not changed.




Im thinking its the price of crude at the NY Mercantile exchange, its down to about 
84.75 approx I think. The weather has also played its part here as the drillers are having problems accessing their rigs or so Ive read.
There are excess stocks of crude at the Cushing plant in Oaklahoma and the price of crude on the NYMEX will probably keep going down untill that clears, that could be a while as demand has waned, some of the refineries are cutting back production so the excess might grow even worse yet. I dont think the Brent Exchange price has a lot to do with these coy's in the US , Im not sure but most or all of the oil goes to the US.
But I think the long term is looking good.

CHEERS


----------



## RaymondJ (17 February 2011)

Looks like a pump and dump going on with SEA today up to about 94c who is doing this I wonder?
Im steering clear of this stock for a while Im thinking there is too much manipulation going on here.

7 sellers at 94c for 93000 shares approx.@1215pm

bye now


----------



## condog (17 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Looks like a pump and dump going on with SEA today up to about 94c who is doing this I wonder?
> Im steering clear of this stock for a while Im thinking there is too much manipulation going on here.
> 
> 7 sellers at 94c for 93000 shares approx.@1215pm
> ...




Raymond a 3c spike that took half a day followed by a slow 2c decline isnt exactly a pump and dump. That imo is just plain old normal market movement ebbs and flows.


----------



## skivvy (17 February 2011)

condog said:


> Raymond a 3c spike that took half a day followed by a slow 2c decline isnt exactly a pump and dump. That imo is just plain old normal market movement ebbs and flows.




Agree Condog, nothing much of interest here atm, just lack of interest by the buyers and sellers so the sp just lingers along until some interest comes back.  Be patient and good things will come with this stock pick.

The price movement of EKA yesterday however was more alarming than what is happening with SEA today, wish I was on line when that correction occurred.


----------



## RaymondJ (18 February 2011)

skivvy said:


> Agree Condog, nothing much of interest here atm, just lack of interest by the buyers and sellers so the sp just lingers along until some interest comes back.  Be patient and good things will come with this stock pick.
> 
> The price movement of EKA yesterday however was more alarming than what is happening with SEA today, wish I was on line when that correction occurred.




Were you watching the trades that went through from 91 to 94? I agree about EKA I had to go off and do something for about 15min and when I got back it was all over! I was waiting for it to dip as well Oh well I can see it comming down again thought not as fast. Im waiting to buy back into both.
CHEERS


----------



## apophis (18 February 2011)

Truly frustrating stuff. We all like the long term fundamentals of the stock yet people flip at a +/- 1-3 cent move up or down. 

I hear the atmosphere in crown is definetly more appealing for that kind of talk. 

Condog = Hats of for the great work. I feel for you re HC.


----------



## RaymondJ (18 February 2011)

apophis said:


> Truly frustrating stuff. We all like the long term fundamentals of the stock yet people flip at a +/- 1-3 cent move up or down.
> 
> I hear the atmosphere in crown is definetly more appealing for that kind of talk.
> 
> Condog = Hats of for the great work. I feel for you re HC.




So you wernt watching the trading day yesterday either? I wasnt flipping as you put it because I dont hold this stock I got out in the last run. It was merely an observation of the trades that were going thru. The only explanation I can find for an insult like that is If your upset because your holding and ths stock is going down - not my fault but I am entitled to my opinion without being insulted by you or anyone else as per the forum rules!! I suggest you watch the trades for a day or so when it is being pumped up it might be enlightening for you.

I am waiting to get in but not for a while I think its going down further because of the glut of oil in the US, and the delays in bringing wells online.!!


CHEERS


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (18 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> So you wernt watching the trading day yesterday either? I wasnt flipping as you put it because I dont hold this stock I got out in the last run. It was merely an observation of the trades that were going thru. The only explanation I can find for an insult like that is If your upset because your holding and ths stock is going down - not my fault but I am entitled to my opinion without being insulted by you or anyone else as per the forum rules!! I suggest you watch the trades for a day or so when it is being pumped up it might be enlightening for you.
> 
> I am waiting to get in but not for a while I think its going down further because of the glut of oil in the US, and the delays in bringing wells online.!!
> 
> ...




I can't speak for the guy above but I'd hardly call flipping an insult. Also guys it sucks we couldn't hold $1 mark but we are a few days off another production release so fingers crossed. You can't keep going up.. Both AUT and SEA are consolidating lately which is good before the next jump. Go back a month and you'll find SEA was a lot lower. The fundamentals are there so just hold and watch. Best of luck!


----------



## RaymondJ (18 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I can't speak for the guy above but I'd hardly call flipping an insult. Also guys it sucks we couldn't hold $1 mark but we are a few days off another production release so fingers crossed. You can't keep going up.. Both AUT and SEA are consolidating lately which is good before the next jump. Go back a month and you'll find SEA was a lot lower. The fundamentals are there so just hold and watch. Best of luck!






This is the insult   quote "I hear the atmosphere in crown is definetly more appealing for that kind of talk. "

You guys stick together I can see you dont want anybody interferring in your club
or having a differing of opinion so this is not the forum for me

Bye now


----------



## bbker (18 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> I am waiting to get in but not for a while I think its going down further because of the glut of oil in the US, and the delays in bringing wells online.!!
> 
> CHEERS




I don't know about a glut of oil as each news story I read from day to day puts a different spin on it. Of late I read that US stockpiles are overestimated and more is required. And with summer approaching there should be more consumption. Anwyay, the cushing spot price on close yesterday was up to $86.36 from $84.99 

So what can you read into that for the coming months? I don't know.

Also I believe global demand is increasing which affects the US market.

And winter is ending in a couple of weeks so work should speed up on the wells. I guess the main problem is rain as SEA alluded to in the recent updates, not so much the cold as North Dakota is generally a cold place.


----------



## Assasin (18 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> This is the insult   quote "I hear the atmosphere in crown is definetly more appealing for that kind of talk. "
> 
> You guys stick together I can see you dont want anybody interferring in your club
> or having a differing of opinion so this is not the forum for me
> ...





Raymond, chill out buddy, you can't of had that bad a day.:bricks1:

Now that we're a club, can we all get groovy gang names and have secret handshakes?
Just gaggin Raymond, it's been a good week. :dance:


----------



## skivvy (18 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> This is the insult   quote "I hear the atmosphere in crown is definetly more appealing for that kind of talk. "
> 
> You guys stick together I can see you dont want anybody interferring in your club
> or having a differing of opinion so this is not the forum for me
> ...




I am not exactly sure what the quote means (atmosphere in crown) but I hope you stick around RaymondJ.  I appreciate and value your input into this stock and the main reason for me joining ASF was to bounce ideas off other traders like yourself.  We all interpret the markets and what a stock is doing slightly differently and that is what makes it interesting and how we learn from each other.


----------



## condog (18 February 2011)

Everybodies welcom Raymond, no club that im aware of, and imo discussion has to show both sides of the coin. From 1st hand experience though two things. 1 if your against a stock you have to expect a reaction, 2, its far easier to play devils advocate, then put forward information in the forst place. 

But mate everyone and everyones opinion is welcome, but doenst mean it will be agreed with.

When your peeing into the wind you need to have a thick raincoat on. (ie thick skin)


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (19 February 2011)

No one is sticking up for anyone... its the internet after all. Anyways guys back to SEA, just had a look at the chart.. SEA is still in it's growth channel and maybe a top up this week is on the cards for me anyways. Like I said before we are a few days away from a production report.


----------



## condog (19 February 2011)

Been doing a bit of research on the admin costs of our young oilers. Interesting comparrison that SEA is significantly higher then the others. Something to keep an eye on. SEA might be a little top heavy in the admin department. 

SEA  approx 920K pq 
AUT  approx  750K pq
EKA approx 200 -300K pq
TXN approx  450K pq

These are cash cost only , they dont include options and performance bonuses. Simply the state admin cost from the Quarterly cahs flow and thier expected quarterly spend.


----------



## bbker (20 February 2011)

How did you average it out to get 920k pq? Are you looking somewhere other than the reports?

I haven't looked at AUT or EKA to compare but last quarter SEA's admin cost was higher than normal (esp. next to the historic average) and that was offset by higher revenue too tho I think we have to consider other activities that cause the swings. The 3q of 2010 looks like the best relative quarter. 




condog said:


> Been doing a bit of research on the admin costs of our young oilers. Interesting comparrison that SEA is significantly higher then the others. Something to keep an eye on. SEA might be a little top heavy in the admin department.
> 
> SEA  approx 920K pq
> AUT  approx  750K pq
> ...


----------



## Magic Man (21 February 2011)

Hey.

SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL. 

What are the other holders thinking?


----------



## bbker (21 February 2011)

The thing is there isn't much volume and the general Aus. market is down.



Magic Man said:


> Hey.
> 
> SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL.
> 
> What are the other holders thinking?


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (21 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Hey.
> 
> SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL.
> 
> What are the other holders thinking?



Looks fine to me - still trading within a nice channel. Bought in around 74c myself but certainly not looking to sell at this stage. Will be looking to increase my holding shortly... so sell away. How many ya wanna sell?


----------



## AngusSmart (21 February 2011)

Finally i am able to trade this stock on Ig markets. after countless emails throughout the past 5 months they have finally listed the stock.. was always considered too risky to them..

looks like its at the bottom of its channel lets hope for a bounce


----------



## gsnz1 (21 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Hey.
> 
> SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL.
> 
> What are the other holders thinking?




From Esperanza52 at yahoo.com: 

As someone whose company has been active in the Bakken since 2005, it appears to me that the Niobrara play is progressing in a similar fashion. Initial wells range from good to poor. As drilling and fracturing techniques have improved, well results have also. *A friend who works for Halliburton told me that what they have learned in the last year eclipses that which they learned in the prior 10. These improved techniques have greatly enhanced the economics and reserves.*
 Here's what Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, had to say about these improvements in the Bakken play 

http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display... 

Like the Bakken, the Niobrara play will have sweet spots where natural fracturing is better. The good thing about DBLE's Niobrara acreage is that it is generally 2 to 3 times as thick as where most of the Niobrara development is currently occurring. DBLE's acreage is mostly held by producing coal bed wells which is good and bad. Good because the leases don't have an upcoming expiration, bad because the incentive to develop isn't as strong. Nevertheless, this is a good opportunity for those looking for unrecognized value. 

Whiting and others have located Niobrara wells in the area of DBLE's acreage and we should get a look at the results within a year. *Because of the confidentiality rules of the Wyo. Oil and Gas Commission, the production data for the early Niobrara wells is just becoming available.*
From GSNZ1:

There are lots of things to look forward to this year from this company with regard to developement progress and increased production. If you go through the thread most have been mentioned a few times so my thoughts are think long and hard before you sell. It suits me to hold for another 12 months minimum (so i am a bit biased) and then hopefully I will see the potential of our acreage become unlocked and the value will be reflected in the share price this time next year.

Good luck whatever your decision


----------



## skivvy (21 February 2011)

Technically the SP is around support of 89c ish.  The volume has been relatively small on the pull back from the $1 mark to the current price.  A production update should be due out this week I believe, so we might see a bounce if some of the 16 wells due for fraccing or completion have started to flow with healthy IP rates.  
As far as selling at this level, there are plenty of reasons to hold as there are to sell.  It all depends on your own strategy and what you feel is the best thing for yourself.  In hindset if you are trading this short term then a sell around the high and above the 95c support level would have been the thing to do, but it is easy to say that now I guess.  At this level it is either a point to buy more or sell and wait until the uptrend recommences.  Anyway that is my two cents worth and for the record I am still holding on to my parcel after pulling my sell stop out on Friday.


----------



## Magic Man (22 February 2011)

Awesome thanks for your posts. i to will keep holding and see what happens!!


----------



## mikem (22 February 2011)

Does any one know of any announcements. SP down quite a bit today. Good oppurtunity to top up?


----------



## bennywizard (22 February 2011)

mikem said:


> Does any one know of any announcements. SP down quite a bit today. Good oppurtunity to top up?



There have been no SEA announcements in the last 10 days, the whole market is down and oil stocks such as SEA, AUT, HOG, EKA, TXN, PYM etc have not been exempt but the fundamentals have not changed as far as I can see. IMO its a good time to be topping up which is what I've been doing. 
Who knows though if it will drop further before bouncing back. If you are confident in the long term price of oil then things will be looking up before long.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (22 February 2011)

bennywizard said:


> There have been no SEA announcements in the last 10 days, the whole market is down and oil stocks such as SEA, AUT, HOG, EKA, TXN, PYM etc have not been exempt but the fundamentals have not changed as far as I can see. IMO its a good time to be topping up which is what I've been doing.
> Who knows though if it will drop further before bouncing back. If you are confident in the long term price of oil then things will be looking up before long.




This is very true and people have really jumped back in on the banks so yes this is a healthy thing and buying back in now or soon might be a really safe bet if you believe in: a) being bullish on oil. b) the trend of SEA. c) the strong previous results.


----------



## condog (25 February 2011)

Big thumbs up to Pramond


this is massive. an instant 25% possible addition to value for the shale oilers, SEA, AUT, EKA, TXN, possibly HOG. and a few others

SUBJECT:  Aurora Oil & Gas Limited – New Frac Technology Upside 
IMPACT: Positive – Could improve EUR’s per well by at least 25%.
SUMMARY:  Petrohawk Energy announced early success with a new frac technique within the Eagle Ford play.  Schlumberger has developed a new stimulation technique called “HiWay” Flow-Channel Hydraulic Fracturing that fundamentally changes the way proppant fractures generate conductivity, allowing bigger flow channels and subsequently higher EUR’s per well in theory.  
DETAILS:  
·         Schlumberger has spent the last seven years developing and testing this new technique on roughly 500 wellbores.  Originally this technology was developed for tight reservoirs, but they are now expanding that to other types of formations including shale reservoirs.  HiWay is a different delivery method and a different proppant.  The combination of a degradable fiber (that breaks down at temperature and pressure in the reservoir) with sand pumped in a pulsing sequence in theory creates much higher conductivity in the reservoir.  
·         HiWay had never been pumped into a horizontal wellbore until Petrohawk tried it in the Eagle Ford shale play within the past four months (first job was pumped in October).  Petrohawk has now completed between 10 to 12 wells with a HiWay frac on its Eagle Ford play, four of these wells now have meaningful production data that supports what looks like a significant increase in the potential EUR’s per well by at least 25%.  
·         From an Aurora perspective, Petrohawk plans to HiWay frac its first well at Black Hawk in mid-March.  (Remember that the Black Hawk property is offsetting AUT’s acreage within the sweet spot).
·         Petrohawk’s EUR’s at Black Hawk average 1.8 bcf in gas and 770,000 bbls of condensate (550,000 bbls) and other natural gas liquids (220,000 bbl), or 1,070,000 boe (6:1), and this forecast does not include the incremental upside for the HiWay fracs which could add another 25% to these estimates.  Petrohawk’s current estimate of 1.07 mmboe is already a 37% premium to what Netherland Sewell is assuming for Aurora’s EUR’s of 780,000 boe on offsetting acreage on trend, before the potential uplift from the HiWay fracs.  Assuming a 25% increase in the Petrohawk Black Hawk wells based on the HiWay fracs this would lead to EUR forecasts of 1,337,500 boe per well, which would be a 71% premium to what Aurora is currently assuming.  
·         We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora’s reserves based on higher EUR’s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base.  Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand.  This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford.    
·         Aurora is expected to start trading omorrow on the TSX under the new symbol “AEF”.


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## prgudula (25 February 2011)

stoxline update

Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is NEUTRAL in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

SEA.AX has closed above bottom band by 39.1%. Bollinger Bands are 3.2% narrower than normal. The current width of the bands does not suggest anything about the future direction or movement of prices.


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## Youtry (25 February 2011)

Not a chartist, been in and out of SEA a couple of times for good profit. Bought back  in this week on the theory of weakness in SP, increasing production and increasing oil price. If oil price remains around these levels and you are prepared to wait through US winter then I reckon looking good for another run when production ramps up again. Bakken is something like 98% proven producer so odds in our favour. Plus other shale plays and strong cash position. On a fully diluted basis SSN (still current long term holder in SSN) mkt value is higher at present and SEA produce more than SSN (52k BOO to 19K BOO in last quarter). Maybe the SEA hedging has had something to do with the current SP - not a hedging expert but this is my take on the current situation.

This from the last quarterly report:

"The Company has hedged less than 70% of the production from its currently producing wells and maintains significant exposure to oil and natural gas market prices through its development program"

Also hedging area of the report it appears some of the hedges are ceasing this quarter -7,000BOO per month at $60 floor price end Feb 11 and 6,000BOO per month floor price end Mar 11. They averaged around $73.64BOO last quarter as opposed to $72.44 for SSN - who also have a hedging policy. 

I therefore read it as new production coming on board will not be hedged and less of current production is going to be hedged so SEA can take advantage of the current higher oil price? Any thoughts?

By the way only use SSN as a comparison I have held SSN since 2c option days so not a SSN v SEA arguement just used for comparison purposes.


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## apophis (28 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> So you wernt watching the trading day yesterday either? I wasnt flipping as you put it because I dont hold this stock I got out in the last run. It was merely an observation of the trades that were going thru. The only explanation I can find for an insult like that is If your upset because your holding and ths stock is going down - not my fault but I am entitled to my opinion without being insulted by you or anyone else as per the forum rules!! I suggest you watch the trades for a day or so when it is being pumped up it might be enlightening for you.
> 
> I am waiting to get in but not for a while I think its going down further because of the glut of oil in the US, and the delays in bringing wells online.!!
> 
> ...




Mate,
No one is insulting anyone here. Re-read what I said. For your record I have been buying SEA from 0.38cents and its been nothing but smiles all the way..
SEA is relatively small and illiquid and its line of business is driven by a number of factors the market deems less transparent and relatively difficult to foresee. Whenever you get geopolitical risk, people tend to shy away from all high beta equities and equities themselves and that inturns hampers stocks like this. I am just trying to allude that the stock market is an animal driven by future fundamentals. This is a stock with very good fundamentals and a very material upside. If you share that view get in, buckle up and enjoy the ride. 
As for your advice, I appreciate you going out of the way.  But I’d rather be proactive and spent my time looking at fundamentals that will make SEA move forward/backward and share that with people here. I would hate to waste their time and summarise a series of flickering lights and backwards looking indicators.
So on that note, I wanted to thank once again and encourage those that have contributed some quality research. 
‘ the trend is your friend’


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## bbker (28 February 2011)

The bot or bots are still mucking with SEA it looks like. All these piddly trades littered to manipulate the price and then suddenly a price drop out of nowhere, then back to VWAP.

I'm not sure if it's trying to achieve a high sell or cheap buy but last Tuesday someone managed to score 170k shares at 81c ! then casually back to the regular 87c


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## bbker (28 February 2011)

Youtry said:


> Not a chartist, been in and out of SEA a couple of times for good profit. Bought back  in this week on the theory of weakness in SP, increasing production and increasing oil price. If oil price remains around these levels and you are prepared to wait through US winter then I reckon looking good for another run when production ramps up again. Bakken is something like 98% proven producer so odds in our favour. Plus other shale plays and strong cash position. On a fully diluted basis SSN (still current long term holder in SSN) mkt value is higher at present and SEA produce more than SSN (52k BOO to 19K BOO in last quarter). Maybe the SEA hedging has had something to do with the current SP - not a hedging expert but this is my take on the current situation.
> 
> This from the last quarterly report:
> 
> ...




Bump for more responses.

I'm also interested to know how SSN (266m) is valued more than SEA (211m) by about $50m. Surely SEA is worth at least as much as SSN, so SEA's SP could be at least $1.15 by comparison

If SEA is producing 2.5 times more BOO that would mean SSN could be selling it for at least 2.5 times more to be on par, and this isn't logical however you match it up with the hedging and spot prices.


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## BrightGreenGlow (1 March 2011)

bbker said:


> Bump for more responses.
> 
> I'm also interested to know how SSN (266m) is valued more than SEA (211m) by about $50m. Surely SEA is worth at least as much as SSN, so SEA's SP could be at least $1.15 by comparison
> 
> If SEA is producing 2.5 times more BOO that would mean SSN could be selling it for at least 2.5 times more to be on par, and this isn't logical however you match it up with the hedging and spot prices.




That's easy, SEA is really undervalued at the moment, any getting in nowish will love the next few weeks and months. The Production update should be here very shortly... shouldn't it condog?? This might be the next catalyst for some more growth in SP.

Now im not much for technicals apart from support, resistance and round number buying/selling but I can still see a lovely trend upwards and still nicely inside the growth channel.


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## bbker (1 March 2011)

With the general slowdown up in the northern American states, I don't think the team will be in a hurry to release a production update. But who knows with their ambitious style?

Well done to SSN with its popularity... from exposure and recent publicity in the American market, giving it a much bigger advantage. It's paid off with the SP really shooting up the past few days. I wish I got in last fortnight with its 12-13c shares, just looking at the trading queue of 30 million share buy vs 8 million share sell -- that's insane!

Since we're comparing, SEA seems to have a milder, more austere appearance. At least that's my perception 

It's a curiosity but still apples and oranges anyway.



BrightGreenGlow said:


> That's easy, SEA is really undervalued at the moment, any getting in nowish will love the next few weeks and months. The Production update should be here very shortly... shouldn't it condog?? This might be the next catalyst for some more growth in SP.
> 
> Now im not much for technicals apart from support, resistance and round number buying/selling but I can still see a lovely trend upwards and still nicely inside the growth channel.


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## Youtry (1 March 2011)

Just further to my earlier post:

As per last quarterly report:
SEA has 8,841 Net Acres in the Bakken which is pretty proven 
SEA has 13,058 Net Accres in Niobrara and intial JV with HAL with royalty, not yet proven as much as Bakken
SEA has an additional 90,609 Net Acres in other exploration plays
SEA has a cash position of $32m
SEA produced 52k BOO last quarter and made over $4.3m in cash inflows last quarter. Given decline rates but new wells on board this quarter would expect to remian steady if there have been delays and to continue to increase during the year
As per quarterly -  "Reduced hedged volumes as a percentage of forecasted production to capitalize on
strengthening oil prices"
Shares - 277m approx and at today's price of 93.5c mkt cap of $260m

SSN has:
1,200 Net acres in Bakken, looking at reducing spacing to get more wells - 2 wells to frac at 29.50% approx to SSN and 1 well to follow before reduced spacing
14,000 Niobrara Net Acres with initial JV with Hal with royalty
24,000 Net Acres owned by CHK with SSN royalty at 3.8%
Other producing but declining gas assets to be sold to reduce tax, diamondback well to be drilled
Net Cash position of about $58m, after loan paid back
SSN produced 19k BOO and cash inflow of $2.03m last quarter. Have not drilled a well this quarter (yet) and will have a reduction in BOO this quarter due to decline rates and has no new well in production since late Sep 10. But 2 new wells to frac mid to late March in Bakken at approx 29.5% share to SSN  will increase production in June 11 quarter 
Including options in the money of approx 300m+ and current approx 1.664 billion shares and new director options at 8c would have about 2b shares at today's closing price of 18.5c would be an approx 370m mkt cap.

Given as per last SSN presentation just posted it states the Bakken has potential depending on various to generate 30m to 40m BOO per square mile and Niobara 10m to 20m per square mile - I find it interesting that SSN has as at today's price a $100m higher market cap even though SEA has 7 times more net acres in the Bakken region which should produce more oil over time.

Any thoughts why such a large mkt cap difference? 

I have invested in both so not having a go at one over the other just think they make an interesting comparison and to me it just depends who is the flavour of the month for the market - bit like SSN 6 or so months ago when fundamentals were strong relative to mkt value but was unloved.


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## bbker (2 March 2011)

The word is there'll be an announcement in a few days about the release of reserves upgrades and the SEA team is coming to Australia for conferences and talks with large institutions...




BrightGreenGlow said:


> That's easy, SEA is really undervalued at the moment, any getting in nowish will love the next few weeks and months. The Production update should be here very shortly... shouldn't it condog?? This might be the next catalyst for some more growth in SP.
> 
> Now im not much for technicals apart from support, resistance and round number buying/selling but I can still see a lovely trend upwards and still nicely inside the growth channel.


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## BrightGreenGlow (2 March 2011)

bbker said:


> The word is there'll be an announcement in a few days about the release of reserves upgrades and the SEA team is coming to Australia for conferences and talks with large institutions...




Not one to call right just yet.. but since I posted that small tech analysis SEA is more firmed back into the higher 90c half.


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## Magic Man (2 March 2011)

BBaker, where did you get this word from?


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## bbker (2 March 2011)

"aussie"leaks


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## Youtry (3 March 2011)

Took option to bank some profits today over the $1 mark, will look at getting back in on a dip again, if opportunity arises, seems to have trobule holding over $1 at the moment maybe needs that announcement that everyone seems to be talking about on various forums, including this one. Will wait and see. Like the story, see what happens, good luck to all.


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## BrightGreenGlow (3 March 2011)

Broke into a new intraday high today. Settled up 2c I think? Was still a good day and good momentum today. I think if it break below 95c again Ill be back in. Looking very good and still waiting on this announcement


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## Youtry (4 March 2011)

Well looks like I was wrong in selling yesterday, announcement out, over $1 as I post good luck to all, another :homer: moment Doh


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## breaker (4 March 2011)

Dont be to hastie to kick your self, old mate big selloff a minute ago


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## bbker (4 March 2011)

Youtry said:


> Well looks like I was wrong in selling yesterday, announcement out, over $1 as I post good luck to all, another :homer: moment Doh




argh, I guess you won't be posting here anymore 

There's lots more happening with the 16 Niobrara wells at 36% WI.

Anyone else here gonna keep holding?


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## Youtry (4 March 2011)

Did not say will not buy back in, just thought would drop to low 90c again as on the last 2 times and bought back in both times and sold around the $1 mark, just sitting on the sidelines a little at the moment to see where it settles. Looked like it was going to crash though $1.05 this morning and keep going but has not.   

As I have stated think it has high potential and like the story - posted above why but will take time and like to bank profits along the way. The Niobrara is still a while away only at permit stage and the other wells still need to be frac etc. so I still see time to get back in. 

If you do not replace the wells in the Bakken with new ones then the decline rates on the other wells will mean that the production targets set by the company will not be met (see Dec 10) and likely March 11 will not be met due to the delays - note no production update since January 11 and this may create an opportunity to buy in if the market overeacts to these. I just think if you set a high target and do not achieve it by the due date but the fundamentals remain solid then the mkt will usually give you a chance to buy back in and then I will hold long term. Maybe right or wrong time will tell and if wrong then I will pay a higher price if I am, that is part of investing.

Just my thoughts and happy to post, if you do not want me to I will not and keep them to myself. DYOR please and stick to your plan but this is mine at present


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## Magic Man (4 March 2011)

breaker said:


> Dont be to hastie to kick your self, old mate big selloff a minute ago






bbker said:


> argh, I guess you won't be posting here anymore
> 
> There's lots more happening with the 16 Niobrara wells at 36% WI.
> 
> Anyone else here gonna keep holding?




What are you guys talking about? Or are you being sarcastic? Once again more wells being pushed on and a solid result. Good result on the SP too. Spiked and holding around the $1 mark. If anyone said 3 months ago SEA would be at $1 they would be very happy rather than selling off or being negative? Each to their own but if SEA stays above $1 today and holds for awhile I can see it around Condog's evaluation of $1.24 in a few months or so. Greatly awaiting the Dog himself making a comment about the share movement today and the result.


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## bbker (4 March 2011)

Magic Man said:


> What are you guys talking about? Or are you being sarcastic? Once again more wells being pushed on and a solid result. Good result on the SP too. Spiked and holding around the $1 mark. If anyone said 3 months ago SEA would be at $1 they would be very happy rather than selling off or being negative? Each to their own but if SEA stays above $1 today and holds for awhile I can see it around Condog's evaluation of $1.24 in a few months or so. Greatly awaiting the Dog himself making a comment about the share movement today and the result.




Just a bit of pessimistic optimism to stir up interest here


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## breaker (4 March 2011)

looks like $1.00 support


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## BrightGreenGlow (4 March 2011)

breaker said:


> looks like $1.00 support




Yeah technically $1 mark is a big thing, next week will be crucial I think anyways. If we can stay above $1 it might stay for a while until the next surge?


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## BrightGreenGlow (7 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Yeah technically $1 mark is a big thing, next week will be crucial I think anyways. If we can stay above $1 it might stay for a while until the next surge?




Did hold and has held today.. All the way to a new high at $1.07. Very handy with solid volume and great buy/sell ratios setup for tomorrow. I see 1/4 of the people selling have targeted $1.12... hopefully we see this this week. Any thoughts if we will?


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 March 2011)

Very nice surge as predicted the last few days and continuing today, another new 52w high and still a great outweighing of buyers. That end of march target is in sight if it keeps rallying and will hopefully hold for another dev update.


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## Magic Man (8 March 2011)

BrightGreen.. Do you hold this stock? Thank you for your recent posts, very educational.
Are you a seasonal investor?


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 March 2011)

Magic Man said:


> BrightGreen.. Do you hold this stock? Thank you for your recent posts, very educational.
> Are you a seasonal investor?




Yes MM, and thanks this one is pretty good to chart (well it has worked out so far, good possibility is was fluke though). Seasonal.. not really, trading for the last 3 years though, trying to learn as I go. If you want good reporting and research check out condogs posts but you have already seem them. Do you hold?


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## bbker (9 March 2011)

Euroz valuation  recommendation to buy with SP target of $1.34


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## BrightGreenGlow (9 March 2011)

When was that figure put out bbker? The last one was $1.20ish wasnt it?


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## bbker (9 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> When was that figure put out bbker? The last one was $1.20ish wasnt it?




Got it off a friend today. 

From memory it was 1.20


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## prgudula (9 March 2011)

Euroz updated today target to 1.34
still buy at 1.00


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## Mofra (10 March 2011)

bbker said:


> Euroz valuation  recommendation to buy with SP target of $1.34



Cheers bbker - do they have conditions on those price targets?
Only ask as the 900 boepd target for Dec10 was met, and teh target for Dec11 is 2,000 boepd (quite a jump).

Given the targets have been consistently hit thus far, I'd be interested in any broker price evaluations at 2,000 boepd (I hold a fair bit of faith in the management of SEA going by past occurances).


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## BrightGreenGlow (10 March 2011)

Mofra said:


> Cheers bbker - do they have conditions on those price targets?
> Only ask as the 900 boepd target for Dec10 was met, and teh target for Dec11 is 2,000 boepd (quite a jump).
> 
> Given the targets have been consistently hit thus far, I'd be interested in any broker price evaluations at 2,000 boepd (I hold a fair bit of faith in the management of SEA going by past occurances).




Well SEA has been smashed with the whole market today and broke the magic $1 mark again. Watching the end of market to regain the $1.02 level.


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## Youtry (11 March 2011)

Well there you go back in at avg around 90c, like the story will not try to be too smart this time (really only got them again due to market and global sentiment not by any smart piece of trading) do not see that it has much to do with the share and will hold a little longer this time liked the half yearly and Eurooz target. GLTA


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## bbker (11 March 2011)

Do you make these SEA trades in a separate account from your "investments" for tax purposes or do you just have them mixed up in the same account? (Unless of course you don't keep anything for 12months+ or at least treat as though you don't)



Youtry said:


> Well there you go back in at avg around 90c, like the story will not try to be too smart this time (really only got them again due to market and global sentiment not by any smart piece of trading) do not see that it has much to do with the share and will hold a little longer this time liked the half yearly and Eurooz target. GLTA


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## Youtry (12 March 2011)

Contact me offline and I will explain my trading strategy to you and what structures I use. But I am an investor not a trader, I just hold to make a gain (a gain to me is not just paper profits but money in the bank), tax is secondary consideration. I only hold 1 to 4 shares at any one time in this micro/small cap area of the market. I also have blue chip LT (some over 10 years) in my superfund for capital growth and for dividends and franking credit benefits.

I will be holding SEA LT from this point, which means as long as the fundamentals remain strong, that is the company is doing what it say's it is going to do and the market does not go pear shape. I hope to contribute to this forum during this journey if I think it can add to the discussion.


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## BrightGreenGlow (23 March 2011)

The chart over the past month shows the impact of the Japanese crisis and the subsequent bounce back and what a strong bounce back it has been. You would be kicking yourself if you sold out during the dip! Looking forward to the next production and development of those new wells...  If anyone has the next Euroz update please post next month  thanks.


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## AngusSmart (23 March 2011)

I doubled my holding during the dip  cant wait for the next one either! 

glad it didnt test 80!!  we're still making higher highs and higher lows! on wards and up wards!!

this is just my opinion! please do your own research!!


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## BrightGreenGlow (25 March 2011)

Dev Announcement out today and was good for the SP... reaffirmed the amounts of wells being drilled, nearing completion and testing.. and currently inline with the 100 or so that will be in production in 2011. Good stuff.. hopefully this will push into next week and the Production update will be one to watch too... cant wait.


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## BrightGreenGlow (30 March 2011)

Today's trades seem a bit weird to me... a lot of small number trading seems useless... what does this mean if anything?


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## BrightGreenGlow (31 March 2011)

Reserves report out today. Looks like a good result to me. Around 12 million boe in the 1P category and 4 million boe in the 2P category. Not sure how this weighs up against the expected proven and probable but they stated it was a good result and 202% increase in reserves since mid 2010. Announcements was reased after market close. What do you guys expect tomorrow?


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## skivvy (31 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Reserves report out today. Looks like a good result to me. Around 12 million boe in the 1P category and 4 million boe in the 2P category. Not sure how this weighs up against the expected proven and probable but they stated it was a good result and 202% increase in reserves since mid 2010. Announcements was reased after market close. What do you guys expect tomorrow?




Yes I agree, BGG a pretty good news release and if the US market stays green tonight then expect the $1 mark to be breached again tomorrow.  Not sure if this will hold during the day, especially with the uncertainity in other markets around the world and tomorrow being Friday, I think maybe some profit taking by traders towards the close may keep the sp from holding on to the $1 mark.  We will see, but technically the sp is looking a little toppy and the price action has been pretty slow this week.


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## apophis (5 April 2011)

Anyone have any news on whats happening to SEA?

Conndog?


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## Assasin (5 April 2011)

apophis said:


> Anyone have any news on whats happening to SEA?
> 
> Conndog?




Yes, a bit frustrating after the announcement yesterday. All good news from a company and fundamentals side of things except the sp still goes down.
There has been a pattern of stocks retracing after terrific reserves upgrades, AUT, EKA and now SEA.
We should all learn for next time.


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## Magic Man (5 April 2011)

Assasin said:


> Yes, a bit frustrating after the announcement yesterday. All good news from a company and fundamentals side of things except the sp still goes down.
> There has been a pattern of stocks retracing after terrific reserves upgrades, AUT, EKA and now SEA.
> We should all learn for next time.




I agree Assasin, the market has its blinkers on as far as im concerned. SEA, HOG, AUT, EKA and TXN are all in a good place fundamentally and the oil price is through the roof yet none of these companies SPs have done anything in 3 months. Yet we see Lynas and Arafura going very strong on nothing but stupid speculation. Everyone wanna talks technicals etc.. but technicals are bull**** without fundamentals.. without fundamentals you have no company. I hope this market wakes up to itself soon... Rediculous.. ONLY MY OPINION SO DONT HATE.


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## apophis (5 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> I agree Assasin, the market has its blinkers on as far as im concerned. SEA, HOG, AUT, EKA and TXN are all in a good place fundamentally and the oil price is through the roof yet none of these companies SPs have done anything in 3 months. Yet we see Lynas and Arafura going very strong on nothing but stupid speculation. Everyone wanna talks technicals etc.. but technicals are bull**** without fundamentals.. without fundamentals you have no company. I hope this market wakes up to itself soon... Rediculous.. ONLY MY OPINION SO DONT HATE.





Apparently we are raising 17 mil in capital @ 51 cents.


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## Assasin (5 April 2011)

apophis said:


> Apparently we are raising 17 mil in capital @ 51 cents.




Whoe! Where did that come from???
Could you state your information source?


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## AngusSmart (5 April 2011)

apophis said:


> Apparently we are raising 17 mil in capital @ 51 cents.






where do i sign?


... 

looks like i was wonrg


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## prgudula (5 April 2011)

http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/2011/03.07.11-EGM Notice & Proxy.pdf

1. ORDINARY RESOLUTION 1: RATIFICATION OF PLACEMENT OF 34,201,250 SHARES
Background
The Board seeks shareholder approval of the issue of 34,201,250 shares by a placement to sophisticated investors, at an
issue price of $0.51 per Share, to raise an amount of $17,442,637 before costs. The shares were issued on 3 December
2010, as foreshadowed by the Company's ASX announcement dated 16 November 2010. Those shares were issued in
accordance with ASX Listing Rule 7.1, and did not require shareholder approval.


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## BrightGreenGlow (5 April 2011)

Please correct me if im wrong but this is old news hey... arnt we due a production update possibly this week... its been nearly 3 months.


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## apophis (5 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Please correct me if im wrong but this is old news hey... arnt we due a production update possibly this week... its been nearly 3 months.





Sorry guys I mucked up.

Sorry if i alarmed anyone.

Taking some heat on this name.


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## BrightGreenGlow (6 April 2011)

Could this soon be a possible breakout upwards? I don't know very much about technicals but SEA over 3 months is still trending UPWARDS and a month graph shows highs and lows converging... well from how I view it anyways..




also, noting very small volume pushing SEA down too.


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## RaymondJ (6 April 2011)

Heres what I think may be keeping these oil coy's SP low
1.  There is a big oil glut in the U.S at the moment, the biggest for a long time. the stocks of oil in Cushing are rising every week. Thats why the variation in price between the WTI oil and the European/middle east price is so high. The U.S is the biggest user of energy in the world.

The good news on this is that the driving season in the U.S is comming up and the refineries are just starting to increase production of fuel. The fuel stocks have been falling lately. So it wont be long before the oil stocks start dropping I hope!

2. When the Libyan thing eases the price of oil will drop significantly.
3. The Japanese crises is affecting the price as well.

The coy is in a good position and I think things will get better soon.
Anyway feel free to critisize.


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## BrightGreenGlow (7 April 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Heres what I think may be keeping these oil coy's SP low
> 1.  There is a big oil glut in the U.S at the moment, the biggest for a long time. the stocks of oil in Cushing are rising every week. Thats why the variation in price between the WTI oil and the European/middle east price is so high. The U.S is the biggest user of energy in the world.
> 
> The good news on this is that the driving season in the U.S is comming up and the refineries are just starting to increase production of fuel. The fuel stocks have been falling lately. So it wont be long before the oil stocks start dropping I hope!
> ...




Silly question maybe but, what does you mean by Coy? also, You're hoping oil stock as in the reserves not the SP right? lol


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## RaymondJ (7 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Silly question maybe but, what does you mean by Coy? also, You're hoping oil stock as in the reserves not the SP right? lol




Thanks for the interest in my post
by coy i mean company and yes Im hoping the oil reserves at cushing will start to be used and the amount of oil they have in their tanks will deminish. The U.S is comming into the highest fuel use period of the year soon, theyve nicknamed it the driving season for obvious reasons I guess. If you have a look on the Etrade website under  quotes and research tab and then commodities report you will see they have published something similar this morning on their morning oil futures report. I think SEA has seen a lot of profit taking as well from the last plunge in price but that seems to be abating and as of close today there was 1 big number on the sell side of 144000 or there abouts so friday might be better.
I do hold this stock and I will be buying more tomorrow hopefully

Good luck


----------



## Assasin (8 April 2011)

Raymond,
          I do have an aposing view but also could be way off track.
   Demand for oil world-wide is growing not shrinking and also, demand for USA to produce more instead of relying on imports would be very high on their agenda.
  In relation to the SP drop, it appears many small cap oilers are down around 20%, (AUT, EKA, HOG, and SEA ). No dramas, as all have had a great ride over the past 6 months and have to have a consolodation stage and a profit taking time.
 For those lucky enough to have extra money, great time to buy more ready for the next leg up. TXN has taken all mine.
I'm currently out of SEA but believe it is a great CO.
Good luck.


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## RaymondJ (8 April 2011)

Assasin said:


> Raymond,
> I do have an aposing view but also could be way off track.
> Demand for oil world-wide is growing not shrinking and also, demand for USA to produce more instead of relying on imports would be very high on their agenda.
> In relation to the SP drop, it appears many small cap oilers are down around 20%, (AUT, EKA, HOG, and SEA ). No dramas, as all have had a great ride over the past 6 months and have to have a consolodation stage and a profit taking time.
> ...




Sure demand is growing but at the moment the glut of oil at the Cushing plant is weighing on these shale oil drillers have a look at some of the reports about U.S oil reserves. This is the biggest glut of oil for about 30 years I think I read , dont quote me on that. Anyway the oil reserves at cushing will start to come down soon as the refineries have been operating under reduced capacity and some have been scaled back for maintanance. They are slowly ramping up now. This is just my idea as to why the shale oil drillers SP is well down.
If there is another reason that somebody knows about please share it. We all know the problems in the world are still weighing.

I look forward to somebody elses ideas on this to enlighten us all as know one seems to know and SEA is about 18c of its high. I didnt buy in today as I think it might drop a bit more yet. 

Just my idea 
thanks for youre reply Assasin
A shortened report re: oil stocks in U.S

*******************************
DJ OIL FUTURES: Crude Adds Gains Despite Building US Inventories 07/04/2011 05:36AM AEST  

   By Jerry A. DiColo 
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 

Oil prices have flirted with new multiyear highs for nearly a week, with the ongoing civil war in Libya and unrest in the Middle East leaving investors wary of betting on falling prices. With few developments in the region, however, traders are cautious about a price correction as well, particularly as oil inventories build in the U.S. 

The situation has led to dropping contract volumes on Nymex and a stall in the $10 price surge since mid-March. 

"We hit those highs, but then backed off pretty aggressively. We might be in a little bit of a pause," said Zachary Oxman, managing director at TrendMax Futures. 

]In Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for the Nymex's WTI contract, inventories were unchanged at a record-high 41.9 million barrels. Brimming oil tanks at the Oklahoma town have kept WTI trading at a steep discount to Brent crude--the contract used widely in Europe--in recent months
The differential was less than $14 Wednesday. Typically the two contracts trade within a $1 of each other. The two contracts traded in opposite directions Tuesday, as fighting in Libya caused traders to bid up the Brent contract, while elevated Cushing stocks kept WTI under pressure.


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## apophis (9 April 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Sure demand is growing but at the moment the glut of oil at the Cushing plant is weighing on these shale oil drillers have a look at some of the reports about U.S oil reserves. This is the biggest glut of oil for about 30 years I think I read , dont quote me on that. Anyway the oil reserves at cushing will start to come down soon as the refineries have been operating under reduced capacity and some have been scaled back for maintanance. They are slowly ramping up now. This is just my idea as to why the shale oil drillers SP is well down.
> If there is another reason that somebody knows about please share it. We all know the problems in the world are still weighing.
> 
> I look forward to somebody elses ideas on this to enlighten us all as know one seems to know and SEA is about 18c of its high. I didnt buy in today as I think it might drop a bit more yet.
> ...






I take what journos are saying with a grain of salt. 

Theres a fair bit weighing in on the markets at the moment.

Just had the Japan mess. People are still waiting to see the impact of that on japans and global growth. 

There is the political instability in the middle east. Which may sound good for the oil price but for every 10 bucks oil goes up it shaves 25bps of global growth. With that some larger instos are ripping cash out of equities and risk assets (Small cap equities) and pushing down apetite for stocks like this. Its one thing to find a company that has discovered the fountain of youth but its another thing trying to work out who wants to own it, why, when.

Ohh and theres the euro credit mess in the background. 

The markets need to consolidate and absorb all this and find direction. Till this happens a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines.

Back to journos..... They write what people want to read....

I work as a investment analyst. In my time in that role. I have found that 75% of the work is in finding out who talks the $hit and removing from your rational thinking and decision making.

I found this site to be pretty useful as a backbone for a number of assumptions.

http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/index.php?inc=products&id=cp3
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/ABNEM1104.pdf

Conndog you have gone quiet there mate. 

I respect your views and would love  to hear some of your bottom-up input.


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## RaymondJ (9 April 2011)

apophis said:


> I take what journos are saying with a grain of salt.
> 
> Theres a fair bit weighing in on the markets at the moment.
> 
> ...




Yes I agree if you look at my previous post you will see I put in about the Japenese crises and the middle east crises but in my opinion the glut of oil is having a significant impact as well on oil companies supplying thru cushing at the moment. But if you want to disregard my opinion im ok with that.
bye now

Condog is posting on the AUT blog


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## BrightGreenGlow (11 April 2011)

OIL up again busting the $1.12 level.. see how it goes this week. Going by the chart as there aren't any new updates on the fundamentals to talk about at the moment we might see another surge upwards soon?


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## Magic Man (12 April 2011)

Have a look at this trading keeping us down... any ideas?


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## BrightGreenGlow (13 April 2011)

Well another day and another bit of a slide for SEA.. hope it doesn't break the 86/85c mark. I still don't see any reason for this slide back though. Oil is up drilling is going as planned and the US is 'okay'. I don't see the oil glut in the US being a big problem... just look at the price of oil...


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## apophis (14 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Well another day and another bit of a slide for SEA.. hope it doesn't break the 86/85c mark. I still don't see any reason for this slide back though. Oil is up drilling is going as planned and the US is 'okay'. I don't see the oil glut in the US being a big problem... just look at the price of oil...




Crude Oil Advances as U.S. Gasoline Inventories Drop the Most in 12 Years
By Mark Shenk - Apr 14, 2011 5:42 AM GMT+1000 Tweet inShare.6More 
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .Crude oil rose after a U.S. government report showed inventories of gasoline plunged the most in 12 years as demand climbed and refineries idled units. 

Futures advanced 0.8 percent after the Energy Department said gasoline supplies dropped 7 million barrels to 209.7 million last week. Stockpiles were forecast to decline by 1 million barrels, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Consumption of the fuel climbed the most in more than five months. 

“The report today was very interesting because the draw in gasoline stocks was seven times bigger than what people expected,” said Sean Brodrick, a natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “High prices haven’t had enough of an impact on demand to end the bullish trend.” 

Crude oil for May delivery increased 86 cents to settle at $107.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 27 percent from a year ago. 

Gasoline for May delivery climbed 7.83 cents, or 2.5 percent, to end the session at $3.2424 a gallon in New York. 

Crude oil slipped briefly as President Barack Obama called for an overhaul of the U.S. tax code for individuals and businesses and said he wants to raise an additional $1 trillion through tax increases over the next decade. The president spoke at George Washington University in the capital. 

Obama urged Congress to raise cash by eliminating so-called tax expenditures, which would generate revenue that could be used to reduce tax rates and also increase the government’s take from the economy. He didn’t provide details about which tax breaks he would curtail or eliminate. 

Gasoline Stockpiles 
The drop in gasoline inventories was the largest on a per- barrel basis since Oct. 9, 1998. Gasoline supplies have slipped 31.4 million barrels, or 13 percent, in the past eight weeks, the report showed. It’s the longest stretch of declines since the summer of 2008 when prices were at a record. 

Demand for the fuel rose 3.7 percent to 9.18 million barrels a day, the biggest increase since the week ended Oct. 22, the report showed. 

Refineries operated at 81.4 percent of capacity, down 3 percentage points from the prior week. It was the lowest level since February. An 0.5 percentage-point increase was forecast in the Bloomberg news survey. 

Inventories of crude oil rose 1.63 million barrels to 359.3 million, the department said. Supplies were forecast to increase by 1 million barrels. 

Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gained 26,000 barrels to 41.9 million, the highest level since at least 2004 when the department began tracking stockpiles at the hub. 

‘Plenty of Oil’ 
“We have plenty of oil,” said Philip Silverman, a principal at Kingsview Management LLC, a commodity trading adviser in New York. “There are record stockpiles at Cushing, which shows that we’re not primarily trading on inventories.” 

Prices have advanced 17 percent this year as unrest spread from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. Elections in Nigeria this month may lead to decreased output from Africa’s top crude-producing country. 

Libyan rebels require further support to defend civilians against the forces of Muammar Qaddafi, allied nations said following a meeting in Qatar. A United Nations resolution authorizing a no-fly zone over Libya provides for self-defense and Qatar would “look into” supplying equipment for this, Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim Al-Thani said today. 

‘Short-Sighted’ Trade 
“It’s very short-sighted to trade on inventory data for last week when the main factor driving the market is geopolitical risk,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. 

Brent oil for May settlement climbed $1.96, or 1.6 percent, to end the session at $122.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. 

Oil prices are likely to remain “high” as the impact on fuel demand from this year’s rally will probably be limited, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Prices may temporarily exceed $140 a barrel in the next three months as consumption expands “rapidly” and armed conflict curbs supplies from Libya, according to the Merrill report dated yesterday. 

Crude oil also rose after the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales climbed in March for a ninth consecutive month, showing the improving job market is helping Americans cope with higher costs for fuel and food. 

Purchases increased 0.4 percent following a 1.1 percent February gain that was larger than previously estimated, government figures showed today in Washington. 

Retail Sales 
“The retail sales today show that consumers aren’t pulling back, which is a good sign for the overall economy and demand,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. 

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 902,115 contracts as of 3:12 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 1.09 million contracts yesterday, 36 percent above the average of the past three months and the highest level since Feb. 24. Open interest was 1.58 million contracts the most since March 14. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net. 

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net.


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## dashwood (14 April 2011)

someone is going to benefit from this dual listing (presumably on tsx) but as with aut it won't be the smaller investor - just look at the aut debarcle!


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## BrightGreenGlow (14 April 2011)

Well I don't think the dual listing was bad for AUT... everyone oiler has been down in the last little while unfortunately. However, SEA now has a lot of money to throw around and big plans it seems. Too bad the market didn't like this and ending down 4c. Although, the announcement was release in the last hour of trade. Will be interesting tomorrow...


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## RaymondJ (15 April 2011)

Im thinking that the price of oil has put the brakes on the U.S economy. I mean it had to happen, oil just cant keep going up in price sooner or later it will have an effect on the entire worlds economy. This will slow growth and demand will fall, when the demand falls if the supply doesnt fall with it a surplus appears. Apparently the commodity traders are making the most of it while the company share prices bight the bullet. The surplus at Cushing is still growing although at a slower rate. Soon maybee they will start drawing more oil from the surplus because the Gasoline stocks are falling rapidly.
I cant see a bottom to this SP Slide but I hope its soon

Anyway Im just stating the obvious I guess except when the Libyan thing calms down oil prices may well take a big tumble, and then there is the Japanese thing still getting worse. I read the Japanese govt has said it will be at least 20 years before the fukashima area can be resettled. Crazy stuff nuclear energy.
Good luck


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## condog (15 April 2011)

I think AUT and SEA are both got a bit of the same disease. They had a 10 fold growth in 2010, and many buyers are questioning value. 

But imo both have so many wells happening in 2011, that they will imo rise in value and price considerably. As for when who knows. Right now i believe TXN is about to be the flavour of the month, but i do truly believe SEA will fall back into favour. After all 115 wells gross in 2011 has to have a big effect. 60 in AUt's case, but right now the next 3 months imo will be TXN.

Watch HOG, SEA and AUT in a few months time imo.

Keep a glance on SSN. I dont like the fact they have 1 billion + shares outstanding, but in recent months ive been proved very wrong on that.


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## RaymondJ (19 April 2011)

This article is from the U.S. Department of Energy  energy.gov.com

ENJOY

Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $89 per barrel in February and $103 per barrel in March.  The WTI price has continued to rise in recent days, reaching $112 on April 8.  Crude oil prices are currently at their highest level since 2008.  EIA expects oil markets to continue to tighten over the next two years given expected robust growth in world oil demand and slow growth in supply from non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC) countries.  These conditions result in an expected drawdown of global petroleum stocks and a call for increasing production from OPEC member countries, which will reduce surplus crude oil production capacity at a time when the disruption of crude oil exports from Libya and continuing unrest in other Middle East and North African (MENA) countries already highlight significant supply risks.  Projected WTI prices average $106 in 2011 and $114 per barrel in 2012, increases of $5 per barrel and $9 per barrel, respectively, from last month's Outlook.

The rise in crude oil prices is reflected in higher petroleum product prices.  EIA projects that the retail price of regular-grade motor gasoline will average $3.86 per gallon during this summer’s driving season (the period between April 1 and September 30), up from $2.76 per gallon last summer.  EIA forecasts the annual average regular retail gasoline price will increase from $2.78 per gallon in 2010 to $3.70 per gallon in 2011 and to $3.80 per gallon in 2012.  Current market prices of futures and options contracts for gasoline suggest a 33-percent probability that the national monthly average retail price for regular gasoline could exceed $4.00 per gallon during July 2011.

Natural gas working inventories ended March 2011 at 1.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly below the 2010 end-of-March level.  EIA expects that working gas inventories will remain relatively high throughout 2011.  The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.10 per million Btu (MMBtu) in 2011, $0.29 per MMBtu lower than the 2010 average.  EIA expects the natural gas market to begin to tighten in 2012, with the Henry Hub spot price increasing to an average of $4.55 per MMBtu.


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## howmanyru (28 April 2011)

No posts here for a while, has this thread died? Is their no interest in SEA any more? Just curious as i just bought into this stock at 80c only to see it dive today and curious of other current opinions on this stock.


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## BrightGreenGlow (29 April 2011)

howmanyru said:


> No posts here for a while, has this thread died? Is their no interest in SEA any more? Just curious as i just bought into this stock at 80c only to see it dive today and curious of other current opinions on this stock.




It's been down due to the directors selling mass amounts of shares at the 75c level... unfortunate for the holders but this should improve... does anyone have thoughts on the quarterly? Seemed good to me but yeah SEA was down. Hopefully next week we will see some better action above the 80c level.. Dunno if i could buy anotehr few thousand now or wait for the HOG CR??


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## RaymondJ (2 May 2011)

No exprert here but the Quarterly report sees production at an increase, higher prices for the oil, and more money in the bank, if it was my personal business Id be very happy.
I knew the weather was going to play a big part in the results but they kept increasing production inspite of the horrific weather over there.With improving weather, Gadaffi's dimise and this quarterly things should pick up, after all the company is out there producing and selling oil and gas and its not going to dissapear and the need for oil is still growing. AUT is down a long way as well, I think the pessemism in the world is hitting oil stocks. But hey the oil demand is increasing as the draw down of fuel in the U.S shows. Im holding on.

Cheers


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## BrightGreenGlow (2 May 2011)

I believe the high AUD rate is killing these kind of stocks and weighing down on most... obviously international investors will be less likely to buy ASX shares and much more likely to sell for the currency exchange.

It's hard to buy with so much negativity for really no reason. Did anyone watch that SBS or ABC doco about SEA on Sunday I heard about? If so what gives???

Im looking to buy again soon as in a few months i believe the results and sustained high oil price will result in a SP $1+

PS: Has there be a revised Euroz target??


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## RaymondJ (3 May 2011)

The negative sentiment is key to all this I agree. The U.S. got BINLADEN yesterday and the market went up immediately, that kind of sentiment is just beyond logic, its crazy stuff. Shows you what the market really thinks is important "Appearances".
I saw the shorts of the Docco and it was about shale oil and gas and poisening of the underground water, but the fraccing fluid they use now is not the same as the old stuff Im thinking. I didnt know it was about SEA though. SEA is holding its own today in a very down market. The media get hold of any info about economies these days and twist it to the dark side so people will tune in. I mean they twist the Australian economy into a big negative. Inflation is pretty much in check in Australia and the economy is chugging along, jobs growth is surging but if you listen to the media its all bad. My experience is negativety always has the loudest voice.

On the Bin Laden thing, the terrorists have been doing their best all this time so I dont think there will be a huge upswing in terrorism around the  globe. Meybee in Afganistan for the summer but thats probably it.


I wait.


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## RaymondJ (5 May 2011)

What are these mass amounts of shares being sold todat 1 sale for 300,000 another for 250,000 another for 135,000 anybody got any ideas on this it is giving the SP a real flogging, is this the company selling these?

waiting


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## AngusSmart (5 May 2011)

Euroz put out a new target yesterday. 1.31 and a buy @ 73c


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## RaymondJ (5 May 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Euroz put out a new target yesterday. 1.31 and a buy @ 73c




Ahh thanks for the info but there seems to be a big selloff underway at the moment and the stock price is getting a hiding. $1.31 is a good price even with 20% discount the SP should be over $1.

Tks for the info I will hold


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## BrightGreenGlow (5 May 2011)

I just sold a 6th of my TLS holdings on the reaffirmed dividend and nice SP today... I was about to put all of this into SEA but I dunno if I should wait for a bit of a turn around... its very tempting at the moment... I'd rather have my money in SEA rather than AUT at the moment. This is because I believe people are still worried about the directors selling. I would like to be in very soon... production/development update due soon too.


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## RaymondJ (5 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I just sold a 6th of my TLS holdings on the reaffirmed dividend and nice SP today... I was about to put all of this into SEA but I dunno if I should wait for a bit of a turn around... its very tempting at the moment... I'd rather have my money in SEA rather than AUT at the moment. This is because I believe people are still worried about the directors selling. I would like to be in very soon... production/development update due soon too.




There is a  Quarterly activities report out that is pretty much the same thing if you read the whole thing and its pretty good considering the bad weather and the Aus Dollar is comming down which makes it better. I think if you wait for too long the dollar might come down more and these stocks will surge, im hoping. Also the U.S. dollar is strengthening. Have you seen the Euroz valuation from AngusSmart. SEA has gone up today despite large volume being sold off so I think something is going on here!! 
Anyway thats my opinion only. Glad to see someone making money on TLS.

bye now


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## Magic Man (5 May 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> There is a  Quarterly activities report out that is pretty much the same thing if you read the whole thing and its pretty good considering the bad weather and the Aus Dollar is comming down which makes it better. I think if you wait for too long the dollar might come down more and these stocks will surge, im hoping. Also the U.S. dollar is strengthening. Have you seen the Euroz valuation from AngusSmart. SEA has gone up today despite large volume being sold off so I think something is going on here!!
> Anyway thats my opinion only. Glad to see someone making money on TLS.
> 
> bye now




Not quiet making money capital wise but it helped me reduce my CGT tax this year ... 

Can someone post the euroz update so we can read it if that's ok? Also, this is true RJ, I couldn't imagine the AUD gaining more over time with the USD. America is find someone to get their currency higher.


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## RaymondJ (8 May 2011)

*This is from Bloomberg online dated 7 May 2011*

JPMorgan Boosts 2011 Oil-Price Forecasts as Producers Not Matching Demand
By Stephen Voss - May 7, 2011 8:07 PM GMT+1000 
inShare.1More 
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) raised its oil- price forecasts because OPEC and other producers aren’t matching rising demand and consumers will take time to react to higher prices. 

The bank boosted its 2011 Brent crude forecast to $120 a barrel from $110, and changed its estimate for West Texas Intermediate crude to $109.50 from $99. Forecasts for 2012 prices were raised to $120 and $114, respectively. 

“While financial bushfires or perhaps a rapid resolution to the Libyan civil war could radically alter market dynamics, the balance of both risks and fundamentals still points to a supply-constrained world,” JPMorgan analysts led by New York- based Lawrence Eagles wrote in a report yesterday. 

Oil futures posted their biggest weekly decline since December 2008 last week amid concern about the pace of the economic recovery, with London-traded Brent plunging 13 percent to $109.13. 

JPMorgan forecasts supply to fall short of demand by 600,000 barrels a day during the third quarter, even with the assumption that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increases output by 1.2 million barrels a day in coming months. 

The gap could narrow to 300,000 barrels a day by the fourth quarter, assuming Saudi Arabia increases production to 9.5 million barrels a day, Angola to 1.7 million and Iraq to 3 million, though “that may prove a stretch,” the bank said. Output from those three OPEC countries in March was 8.66 million, 1.56 million and 2.69 million barrels a day, respectively, it said. 

Supply Gap 
Consumers draw on stockpiles when production fails to match demand. Still, “with inventories already below the five-year average, any supply gap will have to be balanced by lower demand growth, rationed by higher prices,” the New York-based bank said. 

Next quarter there’s a risk oil may move toward record levels near $150 set in 2008, unless there’s a surprise increase in OPEC output beyond 29.4 million barrels a day or slower economic growth, the bank said. JPMorgan forecast Brent to average $130 and WTI $116 during the July-to-September period. 

While the bank lowered its estimate of world demand by 100,000 barrels a day, in part because of the earthquake-led disruptions in Japan, it raised its forecast for Chinese consumption, saying data implies China’s crude-oil inventories have been “drawn heavily” in the past six months. 

“We have observed a parallel destocking activity in the copper market,” JPMorgan said. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Voss in London at sev@bloomberg.net 

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Guy Collins in London at guycollins@bloomberg.net 
.


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## RaymondJ (9 May 2011)

Buyers are lining up nicley this morning. The short sellers are in though and some sellers are starting to jump in at 70c. AUT is going well today. I think there are still too many people wanting to sell - will have to wait and see.


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## RaymondJ (10 May 2011)

Anyone know what these stock purchases are:

02:21:18 PM 0.725 805 
02:19:18 PM 0.725 805 
02:17:18 PM 0.725 806 
02:15:18 PM 0.725 805 
02:13:18 PM 0.725 805 
02:11:18 PM 0.725 633 
02:10:06 PM 0.730 5,982 
02:10:06 PM 0.730 4,403 
02:09:49 PM 0.730 4,711 
02:09:46 PM 0.730 12 

This sought of thing has been going on all day and pulling the stock price down. It happened all yesterday as well. It looks like some one or group is attempting to short the market and suppress this stock price.


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## Country Lad (10 May 2011)

Sales using automated trading. 



RaymondJ said:


> It looks like some one or group is attempting to short the market and suppress this stock price.




Most likely it is actually the opposite where there is a large parcel to be sold and rather than put it up in one go, they are doing it in small licks which is less likely to drop the price. They are all coming from the sell side.  The giveaway is the timing sequence.

Cheers
Country Lad

Time	Price	Volume	B/S
15:21:19	0.725	17	S
15:21:19	0.725	2	S
15:21:18	0.725	1,388	S
15:19:19	0.725	155	S
15:19:18	0.725	1,209	S
15:17:19	0.725	5	S
15:17:19	0.725	151	S
15:17:18	0.725	1,208	S
15:15:19	0.725	100	S
15:15:18	0.725	1,209	S
15:13:19	0.725	139	S
15:13:19	0.725	1	S
15:13:18	0.725	1,086	S
15:09:19	0.725	1	S
15:09:19	0.725	157	S
15:09:18	0.725	1,208	S
15:07:19	0.725	6	S
15:07:19	0.725	151	S
15:07:18	0.725	1,209	S
15:05:19	0.725	109	S
15:05:18	0.725	1,209	S
15:03:19	0.725	17	S
15:03:19	0.725	88	S
15:03:18	0.725	1,186	S
15:01:19	0.725	131	S
15:01:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:59:19	0.725	7	S
14:59:19	0.725	124	S
14:59:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:57:19	0.725	57	S
14:57:19	0.725	74	S
14:57:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:55:19	0.725	4	S
14:55:19	0.725	2	S
14:55:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:53:18	0.725	1,006	S
14:51:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:45:19	0.725	119	S
14:45:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:43:19	0.725	131	S
14:43:18	0.725	1,006	S
14:41:19	0.725	8	S
14:41:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:39:19	0.725	161	S
14:39:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:37:19	0.725	15	S
14:37:18	0.725	223	S
14:35:19	0.725	71	S
14:35:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:33:19	0.725	10	S
14:33:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:31:19	0.725	65	S
14:31:18	0.725	1,006	S
14:29:19	0.725	133	S
14:29:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:27:19	0.725	133	S
14:27:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:25:19	0.725	50	S
14:25:18	0.725	1,007	S
14:23:18	0.725	881	S
14:21:18	0.725	805	S
14:19:18	0.725	805	S
14:17:18	0.725	806	S
14:15:18	0.725	805	S
14:13:18	0.725	805	S
14:11:18	0.725	633	S


----------



## RaymondJ (11 May 2011)

Country Lad said:


> Sales using automated trading.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Thanks for that Country Lad its interesting to note that whoever was doing it kept dragging the SP back to 72.5 when it looked like it would have gone to about 74/75 I wonder if it was the Company getting rid of some allocated shares.
Tks


----------



## Country Lad (11 May 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Thanks for that Country Lad its interesting to note that whoever was doing it kept dragging the SP back to 72.5 when it looked like it would have gone to about 74/75




You are proably right that if that seller was not there, then the price may have increased, however, the alternative would be to place the whole parcel at 72.5 creating the problem that other sellers would need to wait till they are all gone, or go lower to be at the top of the queue, which is more likely, and drive the prices lower. 

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## RaymondJ (11 May 2011)

Whichever way you look at this it is definately suppressing the stock price and there were plenty of buyers monday but theyve all been taken out by whoever is doing all this selling. Have a look at how there doing it watch the buyers side and the sellers side they are definately in synch and they are always selling it downwards. If you wanted to avoid suppressing the stock price you would sell it up not down.

Cheers Country no one else seems to want to post anything on this site any more.


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## AngusSmart (11 May 2011)

I cant see any short selling today on Sea..

Txn and Aut had a small amount..

Would love to top up at these levels..


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## mr. jeff (11 May 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Whichever way you look at this it is definately suppressing the stock price and there were plenty of buyers monday but theyve all been taken out by whoever is doing all this selling. Have a look at how there doing it watch the buyers side and the sellers side they are definately in synch and they are always selling it downwards. If you wanted to avoid suppressing the stock price you would sell it up not down.
> 
> Cheers Country no one else seems to want to post anything on this site any more.




Widely held stock going down = no posts
Widely held stock going up = lots of posts

narrowly held stock going down = "the bots...."
narrowly held stock that had a good day = " I can't believe people aren't on this..."
narrowly held stock having a good run = PM ME RIGHT NOW

and no I don't mean hit me with Julia Gillard


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## RaymondJ (12 May 2011)

Hey there guys thanks for the input
So true Mr Jeff
Id wait for todays opening before you top up Angus there was a horror show in the U.S in commodities last night a trading halt was called to stop prices going so low.

Anyway Im holding on as the longer term outlook for oil is good and maybee a lower oil price will be good for fuel usage.

tks bye


----------



## howmanyru (12 May 2011)

Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?


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## mr. jeff (12 May 2011)

howmanyru said:


> Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?




I'll put my money on 62c as a wild prediction.
 but seriously my time machine is broken and anything could happen.


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## Magic Man (12 May 2011)

howmanyru said:


> Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?




IMO if you currently have a gain on your capital for the year you could always sell and hope it drops and get back in, that way saying your tax. If not maybe hold and ride it out.. Obviously think for yourself however the above could be a strategy to employ.

I would imagine the stock will rise again just hard to with such a taxing government we have at the moment... watch out for the oil tax...... lol


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## RaymondJ (12 May 2011)

howmanyru said:


> Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?




There was an absolut horror show in commodities last night but Im thinking it wont go much lower than this but thats my opinion only and Im holding a significant amount of this stock. The company is drilling alot of wells this year and is on track. Euroz has put fair value of $1.30 on this stock currently. The medium term outlook for oil is good there will be a big demand for it in the mid to later part of this year as countries around the world have been drawing down their stocks of crude, so pretty soon a lot of them will have to restock their reserves
The market depth for SEA is lining up ok right now as at 1256pm est

Just my opinion and what Ive researched

bye now


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## skc (12 May 2011)

Magic Man said:


> IMO if you currently have a gain on your capital for the year you could always sell and hope it drops and get back in, that way saying your tax. If not maybe hold and ride it out.. Obviously think for yourself however the above could be a strategy to employ.
> 
> I would imagine the stock will rise again just hard to with such a taxing government we have at the moment... watch out for the oil tax...... lol




I think that kind of wash sale is frowned upon by the ATO...


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## howmanyru (12 May 2011)

Thanks for the advice guys, I will continue to hold above 60c.


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## BrightGreenGlow (12 May 2011)

skc said:


> I think that kind of wash sale is frowned upon by the ATO...




... mmm I don't see why it would be, you can sell whatever part of a share parcel you want, as far as I'm aware... or are you being sarcastic?


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## skc (12 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> ... mmm I don't see why it would be, you can sell whatever part of a share parcel you want, as far as I'm aware... or are you being sarcastic?




See this thread...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9866&page=1


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## RaymondJ (13 May 2011)

Heres a quick summary of the Production announcement for Willitston Basin
Please let me know if you see any errors-gently
boe p/d  = 1603
boe p/w =  11221
boe p/m = 44884
boe p/y = 538608

lets say at $80 p/b = $43088640 p/annum
This is purely a extrapolation of the production rate p/d and doesnt account for decline.
Its based on SEA's percentage of each well in the production output.
Can someone tell me how this compares with the last production updatre I havent got time

cheers RJ


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## RaymondJ (13 May 2011)

Update
 Im having trouble accessing the Announcement now I dont know what chokes are applied if any.
From what I can see it looks pretty good. more wells online.

What does everyone else think of the Production update

p.s. the bots are back at it one bot is trying to sell it down and the other is selling it up. Crazy stuff


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## BrightGreenGlow (13 May 2011)

Cheers skc.. they are dirty the ATO.. seems like you could have a millions reasons to sell but back to SEA....

Mandaree well, had a big decline over the 7 days.. its 30 day average will be something to look at. However the rest were good  Not much movement in share price though.. maybe we are all waiting on the duel listing in the US???


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## RaymondJ (13 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Cheers skc.. they are dirty the ATO.. seems like you could have a millions reasons to sell but back to SEA....
> 
> Mandaree well, had a big decline over the 7 days.. its 30 day average will be something to look at. However the rest were good  Not much movement in share price though.. maybe we are all waiting on the duel listing in the US???




What will that mean to the share price Im not sure how this is going to work, your thoughts would be much appreciated. Im no fan of the ATO either theyve hounded me for years and they can be brutal.
RJ


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## BrightGreenGlow (13 May 2011)

Well im not very sure Ray.. I wouldn't mind hearing from the Dog himself here but seems like that well had massive declines so thats obviously not good but the rest seems to be inline with previous declines. I think people are a bit unsure as to what the double listing will do to SEA.. so anything unconfirmed is bad I guess or however maybe an excellent buying opportunity..

Also, you can't tell me a $1+ stock can nearly come down 40% on no other news than that the directors needed some cash so sold out a bit, every other bit of news is either inline with projections or has reaffirmed their strong cash position. :S Really weird.. and i'm tired of seeing these sub -100 unit trades going through.. either way I'm holding and may buy in again after May.


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## RaymondJ (16 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Well im not very sure Ray.. I wouldn't mind hearing from the Dog himself here but seems like that well had massive declines so thats obviously not good but the rest seems to be inline with previous declines. I think people are a bit unsure as to what the double listing will do to SEA.. so anything unconfirmed is bad I guess or however maybe an excellent buying opportunity..
> 
> Also, you can't tell me a $1+ stock can nearly come down 40% on no other news than that the directors needed some cash so sold out a bit, every other bit of news is either inline with projections or has reaffirmed their strong cash position. :S Really weird.. and i'm tired of seeing these sub -100 unit trades going through.. either way I'm holding and may buy in again after May.




I wrote to the coy last week and asked them if they are involved in the mass selling by automation that has been going on. As yet Ive not received a reply. I really have no idea how this dual listing will go. I can only wonder will it be the same company and will they list a whole new placement of shares. I too am sick of all this auto trading someone is either selling millions and someone may be taking a big position, I dont know.

p.s I just received a reply:Thank you for your inquiry via our web site. Sundance does not currently buy or sell any of it's shares on the market. 
I sent them another email asking about the dual listing. I will keep you posted
cheers RJ


----------



## RaymondJ (16 May 2011)

DUAL LISTED COMPANIES
Have a look on Wikipedia (Dual listed public companies)
Very interesting BHP is dual listed. There seems to be more advantages than a merger or aquisition especially when it comes to tax meybee they want to avoid the carbon tax and super profits tax that Australia is trying to implement.

RJ


----------



## Assasin (16 May 2011)

Guys, more info on dual listings could be obtained from the AUT announcements and threads over the past 4 months. The jury is still out on whether or not that assisted the stock.
 Have been out of SEA for a while, but my 2 cents are that they are a great target for a take-over at the moment which we havn't seen or heard of in the small cap oilers for a while.
 Good luck to holders.


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## RaymondJ (16 May 2011)

Assasin said:


> Guys, more info on dual listings could be obtained from the AUT announcements and threads over the past 4 months. The jury is still out on whether or not that assisted the stock.
> Have been out of SEA for a while, but my 2 cents are that they are a great target for a take-over at the moment which we havn't seen or heard of in the small cap oilers for a while.
> Good luck to holders.



Thanks Assasin for that I will have a look. From what Ive read and its not much at the moment but it seems that dual listing is far more tax advantageous than a merger or a takeover. But a takeover might explain a lot about the way its been trading lateley
TKS RJ


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## RaymondJ (16 May 2011)

Here is a bit of info I gleaned from the AUT Blog my thanks to CONDOG and philly for there information.  RE DUAL LISTING

 Re: AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas 
 Originally Posted by philly  
Hi Condog, thanks again.
I'm a bit troubled now .
What is stopping the bigger players who have transaction accounts on both the ASX and TSX and the TSX listing promotor from raiding the ASX and moving a substantial quantity of AUT shares off shore to the TSX?

You see, before you told me about this cross market trading, I saw the listing on the TSX as a good thing because it gives AUT greater exposure and greater access to funds. However now I'm wondering whether AUT is vulnerable to a T/O led by the Canadians? And also if the number of AUT shares on the ASX decreases substantially because the Canadians are buying up how will that impact on the price and liquidity of AUT on the ASX?
Your comments welcome. Thanks in anticipation

Condog
Every company is vulnerable to a take over every day. This really doesnt make us any more or less vulnerable imo. If you own shares you can sell them on the ASX via your broker or you can sell them off market and just submit the paperwork. They are your shares, you can sell them anywhere you want, they just have to have the regestery notiified before the new owner can also onsell to who ever they want where ever they want in what ever currency they want. 

So theoretically yes there might be a raid of shares sold on the TSX. But hey for us holders thats an awesome thing as it limits the supply, but exposes the shares to two markets worth of demand. 

The key thing in any dual listing is "will it create sufficient demand to warrant the extra admin costs and time commitments" So far yes. Time will tell? 

Some companies its awesome, others regret it or find it useless and they delist and go back to one market.

So far the cashed up resource rich and super annuation rich Canadians have loved our little baby. 

Hope this helps
RJ


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## RaymondJ (16 May 2011)

This reply is from Sundance Energy, my thanks to Eric for replying so promptly.

Re: Dual Listing 
Close 
From: Eric McCrady <emccrady@sundanceenergy.net>   |   Date: 16 May 2011 10:17:24  
We have not announced the specific mechanism for the dual-listing.  The North American listing will be investing in the same set of assets as the ASX shares currently own and, theoretically, the shares should be tradeable between exchanges.  Our view is that North American markets currently value US oil shale assets more aggressively than those on the ASX which is the driver behind exploring the dual listing (AUT and SSN appear to have better valuation metrics than SEA and other ASX only peers).  That doesn't necessarily mean SEA would see price appreciation but it looks like the potential may be there.  We will provide more details to the market as we move forward in the process.  Thanks again

Eric


My reply

Thanks for your prompt reply Eric there are many SEA stock holders interested in this dual listing. Please excuse my ignorance on this issue. A couple of questions for you:

a: How many shares will be in the initial listing and are they new shares or existing shares from the ASX listing?
b: What controls if any are there to limit cross selling when one exchange is up and one is down?
From what Ive read a dual listing is more tax efficient than a merger or a takeover.

Many thanks Eric
Awaiting your reply


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## BrightGreenGlow (16 May 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> This reply is from Sundance Energy, my thanks to Eric for replying so promptly.
> 
> Re: Dual Listing
> Close
> ...




Thanks for sharing Ray.


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## Wysiwyg (16 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Thanks for sharing Ray.



 Yeah tanks Ray for sharing the personal thoughts in confidence from Sundance Energy's Chief Financial Officer.


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## RaymondJ (17 May 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yeah tanks Ray for sharing the personal thoughts in confidence from Sundance Energy's Chief Financial Officer.




There was in no way any confidential information in that email if there was it would have said in the email and it didnt. It is just a general statement about what the dual listing may or may not do and what it has seen to do with other companies ie AUT. Im sure SEA would not give away confidential information to any shareholder as that may be seen as insider trading. I hope this aleviates your concern over this matter. The company probably should have put out some more information as to how this might affect the stock in the first place and their reasons for doing it.
It was easier to put up this email than to explain it, and after all this site is about sharing info about this stock. I have other replies which I have not put up.

I would appreciate any thoughts and ideas on this dual listing from you.
RJ


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## alexc2005 (17 May 2011)

More importantly- what does this mean for the share price?

I'm considering topping up at $.60 but don't really grasp what is happening and what it means to the sp.


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## RaymondJ (17 May 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> More importantly- what does this mean for the share price?
> 
> I'm considering topping up at $.60 but don't really grasp what is happening and what it means to the sp.




From the information I can gather and from watching AUT go through a dual listing it is generally a good thing for the SP. The board and Mr Mcreedy at SEA are doing what they consider is beneficial to the company and the SP and I agree with them. There will be another company listed on the Toronto stock exchange and generally the TSX and the ASX SEA stock price should stay pretty much in lock step but theres no guarentee for that. The company board of directors are only considering this at the moment and nothing is final. I think the main reason they are doing this is that the TSX tends to value oil drillers much more favourably than the ASX. The SEA board in my opinion is doing a great job and the company is in a good position and I personally trust in them to take the right steps forward as they have done. It is interesting to note that a dual listing is better than a merger or takeover but thats just general Im not saying SEA is about to takeover or be taken over. I have faith in this company.
this is just my opinion only.

I hope that helps please if anybody has more info on this post it but remember this is only in the idea stage as far as I know.
cheers RJ


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## alexc2005 (17 May 2011)

Thanks for the clarification- Bloody hell the sp is dropping like crazy!!

Now seems to be a good time to buy, if we see $1 again in the near future it will be some easy money 

Hopefully the dual listing does have a positive affect.

Do you have any info on how exactly AUT was affected? Like what the SP % change was when it all went through etc.?


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## RaymondJ (17 May 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Thanks for the clarification- Bloody hell the sp is dropping like crazy!!
> 
> Now seems to be a good time to buy, if we see $1 again in the near future it will be some easy money
> 
> ...




Have a look at the posts around the 28 feb 2011 on the AUT blog especially from Condog as he shares some great insights on trading and also take a look at the chart of AUT on the 28feb or there abouts I think it is. Most commodity stocks are heading south but Im sure they will come back  again but thats my opinion only.

p.s stock price heading north again phew!
bye RJ


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## BrightGreenGlow (17 May 2011)

I read in the news today that the US has just hit it's debt ceiling AGAIN... hopefully they will keep raising it higher. Who knows? May is known to be a good time to sell and this has been true again this year.

Im guessing many people who have taken their profits from SEA in the last month or so.. check the charts.. a year ago was a great time to buy and even selling now would make people rich.... well they will have a good profit on SEA. I will continue waiting and I do pin my hopes to the fact that fundamentally mostly everything is going ok. Some production rates haven't met expectation though. I may sell off some SEA I bought at 80c to reconcile the CGT balance sheet... however not to brag but I have a bit of cash from TLS ready to pump if I do see SEA move up again


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## dashwood (17 May 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Thanks for the clarification- Bloody hell the sp is dropping like crazy!!
> 
> Now seems to be a good time to buy, if we see $1 again in the near future it will be some easy money
> 
> ...




You need to review the sp basic graph before during and after the dual-listing. many global factors occurred around this time but a quick factoring of other comparable stocks should give you an insight into the likely effects of dual listing on AUT and it ain't favourable! Happy researching and decision making! 
If this depression in SEA is manufactured and before the so-called benefits of dual -listing I hate to think how far south the journey is going to be.


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## RaymondJ (19 May 2011)

dashwood said:


> You need to review the sp basic graph before during and after the dual-listing. many global factors occurred around this time but a quick factoring of other comparable stocks should give you an insight into the likely effects of dual listing on AUT and it ain't favourable! Happy researching and decision making!
> If this depression in SEA is manufactured and before the so-called benefits of dual -listing I hate to think how far south the journey is going to be.




Yeah maybee thanks for the input. From what I can makeout from the research Ive done it depends on how they do it. If they issue a placement of new shares for Torronto Exchange or use the ASX listed shares. An on other dual listings of much larger companies the dual listing hasnt stayed in step ie one exchanges sp has been much higher than the other and so some cross selling occurs. There is no decision wether to dual list or not yet SEA is just looking into the practice because the TSX lists oil drillers more aggressively than the ASX by that they mean at a higher price.
tks for the input.
I d agree with your thoughts on a manufactured depression, I have watched SEA very closely over the last month and it appears for all the world like there has been a concerted effort to get it down to a particular price and I have seen large purchases when it hits a particular price?? SEA is sitting pretty for a takeover meybee Im only a novice on that issue in my research Ive noticed several experts saying that a dual listing is more beneficial than a takeover in several ways-one being tax, who knows.
Any thoughts on this anybody.

bye RJ


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## Mofra (19 May 2011)

Positive reaction to today's announcements - up over 10%. 
I assume the section on directors not selling down further has been the major impetus - I did read the other sections (farm out agreements) positively.


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## BrightGreenGlow (19 May 2011)

This is true, however, I did not see a hell of a lot of ****ty small trades so many an end of the constant bot-ing down of SEA since $1+ mark? A lot of buying support today and a good finish.


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## RaymondJ (20 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> This is true, however, I did not see a hell of a lot of ****ty small trades so many an end of the constant bot-ing down of SEA since $1+ mark? A lot of buying support today and a good finish.




It has been like having teeth pulled without novacain watching the bots take control. It looks like it might be over for a while, Im hoping. Funny thing the bots stopped when the directors stopped selling or thereabouts anyway. I agree it is looking much better now, like it should be looking it is a good company powering along. I think what has helped it now as well is that the stocks of crude in the U.S. didnt go up last week against anylists predictions. Some big user countries have been drawing down their stocks of crude for a while and they will have to restock soon. So heres looking for better times ahead. 

Cheers Bright Green
RJ


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## Assasin (20 May 2011)

Very informative post courtesy of Gwaihir from another forum.


(Hypothesis)

For all aspiring Bot-Meisters, the constant (chronic) algorithm that for the past 3 months has been forcing down the price of SEA, was switched/reversed at 56 cents on Wednesday 18 May.

This is consistent with the previous capital raising of 51 cents in October 2010, and covers the 6 month period of algorithmic activity.

The institutions/brokers/financiers who have been manipulating SEA, acquired equity at 51 cents in October 2010, taking out LONG positions.

A chronic "Increment" algorithm was then initiated for 3 months.

This raised the price over a period of 3 months to the pre-set trigger value of $1.10.

At a scale declining progressively from $1.10, profits were taken, while at the same time an aggressive SHORT position was applied.

A chronic "Decrement" algorithm was then initiated for 3 months.

This algorithm forced the price of SEA down over a period of 3 months, to the trigger value of 56 cents (with profits being taken most of the way down).

At 56 cents, the SEA algorithm was once again switched/reversed, and buying began in order to cover the SHORT position, thus returning the SEA stock price once more into a rising pattern.

The short position will be rapidly covered, and the algorithms removed (temporarily), thus allowing the stock price to stabilise somewhere been the upper and lower trigger values.

All profits have been taken, and the grateful institutions/brokers/Hedge Funds/financiers (known as the IBHFs) are once more eagerly awaiting the next SEA SPP and Capital Raising.

IBHFs Moto - Our Bots are always ready.


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## BrightGreenGlow (26 May 2011)

Some solids trade today perhaps on the back of the dev update... it looked pretty standard to me, but some good 7day declines and i guess it just reaffirmed us waiting on frac and initial flows. Was disappointed with SEA trading around 1-2 c up most of the day especially with a good update/solid update to their goals and that goldman article, but I came home to find it up 5c and big orders in the buying column.... very happy day for me... every happy day for most people long on oil. Comments please... ?


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## yma (26 May 2011)

Nice day, looking forward for price go up with big volume. AUT got about 5m today with big gain, hopefully will happen to SEA soon.

Holding SEA, AUT and HOG


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## RaymondJ (27 May 2011)

Hello YMA -  Bright Green, it is looking better up to 71.5 now AUT has charged up like a wounded bull. Is now 1241est and still looking bullish on the buy side and a lot lighter on the sell side for a change. This stock was badly battered by the management selling but it seems to be recovering now.

1 point what is the Fulton 19-r well about I saw on the HotCopper forum a comment about this well being part of the Arriba project but on the map when I had a look it definately is well to the East as the HotCopper post says - any ideas as to what thats about.

Cheers YMA/BG


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## yma (27 May 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Hello YMA -  Bright Green, it is looking better up to 71.5 now AUT has charged up like a wounded bull. Is now 1241est and still looking bullish on the buy side and a lot lighter on the sell side for a change. This stock was badly battered by the management selling but it seems to be recovering now.
> 
> 1 point what is the Fulton 19-r well about I saw on the HotCopper forum a comment about this well being part of the Arriba project but on the map when I had a look it definately is well to the East as the HotCopper post says - any ideas as to what thats about.
> 
> Cheers YMA/BG




Not too sure about it as well, Condog might have some idea. 

Big volume with big gain today, have a good weekend.


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 July 2011)

Woah... SEA forum got quiet :S. Well seems the old ceo/director.. whoever it was now has dumped a lot of shares and we are on the trend upwards.. another good dev report came out yesterday and shows a lot of wells awaiting frac and a few drilling. Some nice flows in there but pretty standard. I see Acron bought another 2% recently too which is good.... oil is back trending up so all good to breach the magic $1 mark again barring another other tragedy!


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## Kremmen (22 September 2011)

Last week's update was generally excellent. The best new well, Thompson 1-29/32 (4.8% SEA), produced 59,463 boe in its first 30 days, which should be around a week short of paying off its drilling costs. 1,982 boe/day is the best well result I've ever read from an Aussie driller and the average results over all the new wells are pretty good too.


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## radioham6 (5 December 2011)

Almost it's at a yearly low @40.5 cents this morning. Is it a good time to get on board? Thread very quiet indeed.........Looking at the share price graph over the past year it's getting a consistant down trend. Comments?


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## Kremmen (25 January 2012)

radioham6 said:


> Almost it's at a yearly low @40.5 cents this morning. Is it a good time to get on board? Thread very quiet indeed.........Looking at the share price graph over the past year it's getting a consistant down trend. Comments?



Looks like it was indeed a very good time to get on board. Over 50c today, possibly related to the latest
Diggers and Drillers newsletter.


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## mr. jeff (9 February 2012)

Just for a look!


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## Kremmen (9 March 2012)

Eley Griffiths Group, a fund manager specialising in Australian small companies, now has 5.02% of Sundance.

Interesting to see from their January report than they also have a significant holding in AUT. (2nd biggest holding in their Small Companies Fund portfolio.)


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## Kremmen (22 March 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> Just for a look!



Your chart prediction has been on target. SEA's spent quite some weeks hovering around 75c, but today has broken through 80c.


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## springhill (26 July 2012)

*June 2012 Operations Update

*
Sundance Energy had net production for June 2012 of 43,170 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) which equates to an average daily production rate of 1,439 BOE. The decline from May production of 1,528 boepd is due to normal production declines combined with production being shut-in during routine maintenance operations on several of Sundance’s larger working interest wells in the Williston Basin. The production mix for June was 77 percent oil and 23 percent liquids rich natural gas.

Two Sundance-operated wells, the Lamb 42-15 and the Lamb 32-15, came on production in June. These wells are located in the Wattenberg field of the DJ Basin and had initial production rates in the 90-110 boepd range. During the month, two additional wells were drilled in the same area and were being prepared for hydraulic fracturing at month-end. Sundance has a 100 percent working interest in all of these wells.

During the month the Company successfully completed fracture stimulation operations on the Leon Pecha 1-11H located in Alfalfa County, Oklahoma. The well has been flowing back on a gas lift recovering 300 - 500 barrels of fluid per day and through 30 June 2012 had recovered approximately 25 percent of the load water. The well has been cutting oil and natural gas since it started flowing back. The well is flowing back slower than expected due to low volumes of supply gas from the gas gathering system.

During June, four new wells came on production in the Company’s Goliath and South Antelope prospects in the Williston Basin. In addition, the Henderson 1-28/33H which reported initial production in January 2012 was fracture stimulated in several additional zones and came back on production during the month.


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## Kremmen (24 August 2012)

SEA has sold its South Antelope holdings for US$172.4M cash, which is well over its total market cap. Hence, SP rose 37.5% today.


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## Kremmen (14 November 2012)

SEA and TXN both went into Trading Halt on yesterday. This was no coincidence, as it turns out. SEA plans to take over TXN, with TXN shareholders to receive 1 SEA share for every 2 TXN held.

[I hold both SEA and TXN.]


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## Kremmen (18 January 2013)

With the good results from TXN's latest two wells, SEA has finally moved upwards today. Having sat around 80c for weeks, it shot to 91c today, with a close at 89c.


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## mr. jeff (18 January 2013)

I started watching this on Wednesday and considered an entry this morning, now I have missed the first part of the move!
 Will watch for it to follow through Monday. SEA has interest in the market and may be staging a decent comeback....85c is a very significant resistance level and must clear that for confidence to build.


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## Kremmen (1 February 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> 85c is a very significant resistance level and must clear that for confidence to build.



Looks like 85c has been cleared pretty decisively, wouldn't you agree?


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## mr. jeff (3 February 2013)

It's moving well and I will look for an entry based on the technicals...


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## Kremmen (4 February 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> It's moving well and I will look for an entry based on the technicals...




It'll be interesting to see what you come up with. I entered at 43c based on my analysis that they were ludicrously undervalued.


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## mr. jeff (6 February 2013)

$ Well in that case I entered at 38c then... !

In reality I entered last night at 94c looking for the strength to stay. In hindsight the smart thing to do was buy the re-test of 85c but it's not always that simple.


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## Kremmen (8 March 2013)

SEA has absorbed TXN's Eagleford holdings, while the other parts of TXN have been spun off as Talon Petroleum (TPD).


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## mr. jeff (8 March 2013)

I would be expecting further strength based on the increased attractiveness of SEA with further assets and MC when bedded. They are certainly progressing well and growing strongly. I would be expecting to see further solid buying to indicate further interest from the bigger players.


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## Agentm (2 July 2013)

after the cap raising announcement the sea traded 17.7 mill in one day.. i sold entirely into that

after it bottomed (hopefully) to the low .80's  i repurchased the same number of shares i sold and doubled up into tpd with the balance.. free shares.. which was trading at half of its cash value.

imho the next 180 days will hold a lot of upgrades and hopefully sea will exit 2013 with over 5000 bopd..

looks very undervalued if you minus the cash in hand and the cash it will generate in the coming 12 months


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## Agentm (10 July 2013)

*US revenue  US dollar went up,, why did SEA go down???*

continues to rise day in day out

US based,  US operations, US $ revenue stream...  Aussie dollar dove, oil went up Brent $1.04

this company is cashed up, and is going to dual list on the US exchange also i hear

massive upside to come 2nd half of 2013


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## Kremmen (31 July 2013)

*Re: US revenue  US dollar went up,, why did SEA go down???*



Agentm said:


> US based,  US operations, US $ revenue stream...  Aussie dollar dove, oil went up Brent $1.04




This is what keeps surprising me. The USD is now worth 15% more in AUD than it was 3 months ago, which means that companies such as SEA with all their operations and income in USD (apart from the cap raising) are worth 15% more, on top of any improvement in value in the company itself. However, this isn't being reflected in the stock values.


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## Agentm (6 December 2013)

large exit by an insto that apparently has no option but to sell

cant see sundance announcing anything until most of the exit is complete

should be getting solid production numbers for the 2013 exit


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## Kremmen (7 February 2014)

A sudden increase in activity today and a big jump upwards.
Yesterday's close $0.965.
Today 9,300,941 traded at a max of $1.10, closing at $1.075.


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## skyQuake (7 February 2014)

Kremmen said:


> A sudden increase in activity today and a big jump upwards.
> Yesterday's close $0.965.
> Today 9,300,941 traded at a max of $1.10, closing at $1.075.




readthrough from the AUT takeover, along with AWE, LNR and whatnot


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## Kremmen (8 February 2014)

skyQuake said:


> readthrough from the AUT takeover, along with AWE, LNR and whatnot




Yes, even AWE moved!! The US-based shale oil drillers have been performing really badly over the last year, though they should have improved, as all their assets are in USD and the AUD has fallen. It will be interesting to see if today's grab for AUT will turn them around long-term and whether more takeovers will occur, or whether it'll just be a blip.


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## Kremmen (21 February 2014)

Sundance is now in a trading halt, pending details about the US listing.
http://investorplace.com/ipo-playbook/sundance-energy-new-stocks/


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## sirkiteman (24 May 2014)

Is there any hope for SEA to return back to the US?

They filed for an IPO and a Nasdaq listing a couple of months ago.

Has this US listing plan changed ?


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## sirkiteman (24 May 2014)

I believe it will be a major mistake if they do not have a US listing. They lose a ton of exposure in the US and Canada. Wrong decision.


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## Kremmen (2 June 2014)

sirkiteman said:


> They filed for an IPO and a Nasdaq listing a couple of months ago.
> Has this US listing plan changed ?




It was withdrawn on 18th April. Sounds like they didn't get enough interest.



sirkiteman said:


> I believe it will be a major mistake if they do not have a US listing. They lose a ton of exposure in the US and Canada. Wrong decision.




Shareholders also miss out on massive dilution. The recent increase in borrowing capacity to US$135M and sale of their DJ Basin assets for US$116M means that they can continue growing without diluting their share value.


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## Kremmen (26 June 2014)

SEA opened at its highest point ever today, $1.185. Close was $1.17.


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## Porper (26 June 2014)

Kremmen said:


> SEA opened at its highest point ever today, $1.185. Close was $1.17.




Some resistance up at today's high. Needs a better close and then there could be some action. Bullish patterns in position.


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## Kremmen (2 July 2014)

Porper said:


> Some resistance up at today's high. Needs a better close and then there could be some action. Bullish patterns in position.




Today's close is better ($1.255), plus it's on the biggest daily turnover in a month.


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## Kremmen (5 August 2014)

New highs have been reached most days of the last week. After closing $1.38 yesterday, $1.40 was hit for a while today.


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## Echidna50 (23 October 2014)

Let's take a look to oil prices, this time from the longs side, as we all have read the bearish predictions about 50 USD a barrel etc....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2581505-8-major-reasons-why-the-current-low-oil-price-is-not-here-to-stay


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## pavilion103 (2 March 2015)

It appears that a very strong base has formed on this one.
A possibility to launch from this accumulation base.


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## skyQuake (19 July 2016)

US$ 0.14 takeover hidden in the Cleansing Notice.

What a joke!
Who even reads the cleansing notice


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## McLovin (19 July 2016)

skyQuake said:


> US$ 0.14 takeover hidden in the Cleansing Notice.
> 
> What a joke!
> Who even reads the cleansing notice




Wow. That's really taking the p!ss.


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## skc (19 July 2016)

skyQuake said:


> US$ 0.14 takeover hidden in the Cleansing Notice.
> 
> What a joke!
> Who even reads the cleansing notice




Surely that's not allowed!!!

Exactly... who clicks on cleansing notice? 

And it's not a cleansing notice if you disclose something material!!

I can't believe it. What a dodgy disclosure.

I wonder what compelled them to do it that way?!

Anyone bother reading it would have had free money for the month.


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## Mofra (18 August 2016)

Anyone else still watching/trading this one?

Last SPP years ago at 13.5c turned out to be a spectacular buy, although some of only part of our holding over the $1 mark after offloading in the high 70s 

Seems like there is a little bit of positivity in the forward estimates and the cost of production appears well below the floor price of WTC noting they're partially hedged.


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## Parse (24 April 2018)

Sundance added another 3,990,500,740 shares (cap raise at 5.9c) to it's register today making a total of 6,867,696,796. A little under 300 million SEA shares were traded today on market and there has been some fairly good volumes recently. All this is due to their expansion in the Eagle Ford oil fields. The new shares were at 5.9c and SEA closed today at 6.3c. It will be interesting to see how this company now performs and thus the share price. Most analysts are predicting quite a good re-rate on the share price.


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## Sdajii (24 April 2018)

Parse said:


> Sundance added another 3,990,500,740 shares (cap raise at 5.9c) to it's register today making a total of 6,867,696,796. A little under 300 million SEA shares were traded today on market and there has been some fairly good volumes recently. All this is due to their expansion in the Eagle Ford oil fields. The new shares were at 5.9c and SEA closed today at 6.3c. It will be interesting to see how this company now performs and thus the share price. Most analysts are predicting quite a good re-rate on the share price.




I was wondering if anyone would bring up SEA. I sold out in 2016, but recently bought back in at an average price of 5.6c and picked them for May's tipping contest here. Price targets of major brokers are all over 20c, and based on oil prices around $55. Currently oil sits at around $68 and is in an uptrend. I think today we saw the start of the inevitable rerating as the new share glut begins to clear. Happy to be holding this one again! Definitely worth a look.


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## Sdajii (10 May 2018)

Glad to have bought back in! Up nearly another 10% today, my bundle is up 20% in a short period. The fundamentals are still looking great, and we got another announcement probably not coincidentally timed along with Trumps announcement on Iran. The oil price had mostly already priced this in so POO didn't jump too much, but it does give some level of confirmation on what to expect going forward. Based on broker reports, this thing is worth around 35c, currently trading at 7c after a big jump today. Even at half the valuation of the broker reports this will be a multibagger.


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## Parse (10 May 2018)

What do you think the consolidation they are planning will do? I am a little wary that the relative price will drop after consolidation, proposed for June I think.


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## Sdajii (10 May 2018)

It probably won't do much, and it's ridiculous that they ever do anything, but it will be a bit of a double-edged sword. Instos will probably like it for irrational reasons, and newcomers might think it looks more attractive than a 'penny stock', but existing holders and those who have been watching for a while will likely have psychological price anchoring which will drive the price down as you describe.

Overall, I don't think these forces will really do all that much given the big things happening in the overall picture. People will, I believe, be more interested in the hugely changed fundamentals of the company and the POO. If the POO doesn't collapse and SEA can drill anywhere near as successfully as they are projecting, the fundamentals will completely wipe out any price anchoring issues.

Up another 5.7% so far today! Good times!


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## Parse (29 June 2018)

With OPEC only approving moderate gains to oil output and higher then expected crude draws in the northern hemisphere, the price of oil is looking bullish. WTI is currently (at time of writing) over $73 a barrel and the northern summer is when the highest usage occurs. Sundance don't appear to be doing anything wrong in their latest operational update (link below) and the share price seems to have consolidated recently. Share consolidation has been held back until the end of this year giving the SEA share price a chance to become bullish just like the POO currently stands.

SEA SP at time of writing: 7.3c

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180615/pdf/43vssdjw3qpkbr.pdf


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## Sdajii (28 July 2018)

SEA has had a fairly flat month. I'm hoping the consolidation in July and continued strength in oil price will see the next step up in price in August. The main thing I think the market is waiting for is actual production, which will take time, but if it goes as planned (which admittedly is an if) and the price of oil doesn't totally tank, the share price should be multiples of the current figure in 6-12 months. Several brokers are still sitting with multibagger price targets, so I'm holding and watching with optimism.


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## Parse (28 November 2018)

The oil price is down, the market is down, sentiment is down and SEA is down. Somewhere near the vicinity of 5c a share. The Saudi's are trying to put the brakes on oil output but Russia aren't quite as willing to play the game this time. Still, it's quite possible most factors might come together and as a by product, lift the share price of Sundance in December.

Sundance is still undervalued, Morningstar reckon it's currently worth 7.2c per share, so it shouldn't take a lot of changes to the metrics to see it's price increase. My pick for December.


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## Ann (18 December 2018)

I find stocks which consolidate are much like the bushrangers of old, only without guns or risk of punishment. I have been robbed by a similar situation  on CGA which I will go into under the correct thread.

I am expecting this stock to slowly fall back to a much lower price level, anyone who bought into this stock prior to the consolidation only has one tenth the holding now. It is likely they won't even end up with a marketable parcel to sell eventually. I find this whole pitiful scenario so depressing I can't even muster the energy to make a pun about the ASX code. 

Notice on the PVI how you can see people bailing out of the stock on November 20. Then the ASX announcement on December 11 and on the 13 it happened.  I am going to start a folder on my charts headed R.Souls. No I am not meaning assholes, I mean Rotting Souls because that is how it makes me feel about those people who decided to in my opinion, swindle their shareholders. I am going to track them and revisit them and make sure people remember what they do to their shareholders.

Here is a list of the current directors and executives who I shall watch out for on other stocks. I think they may have done it before as they said they wanted to bring this stock into line with their other stocks, or words to that effect. 

*Directors & Executives (current)*
*NAME* *TITLE* *DATE OF APPT**
Michael Hannell Non Exec Chairman 10/03/2006
Eric McCrady Managing Director, CEO 29/11/2011
Cathy Anderson CFO 11/01/2012
Damien Hannes Independent Director 28/08/2009
Neville Martin Independent Director 18/05/2011
Weldon Holcombe Independent Director 19/12/2012
Thomas Mitchell Director 
*Date of first appointment, title may have changed.


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## Sdajii (18 December 2018)

I think you're being a little harsh on SEA, and completely nonsensical in terms of the consolidation.

There's no point talking too much about the consolidation because it's really not that big a deal, but it has virtually no bearing on holdings becoming unmarketable. On paper there is no difference and the psychological effect perhaps has a (very small) negative impact in the short term and a (small) positive impact in the medium to long term. But again, extremely little impact overall.

The main reason SEA has fared poorly recently is the declining POO. SEA was on a lovely uptrend while oil was trending up, and not surprisingly it has also followed oil down. As you know from my posts in the oil price discussion thread I am very bullish on oil over the next 6 months, and I think SEA will be looking great by mid 2019. Bashing the directors at this point seems quite inappropriate.


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## tech/a (19 December 2018)

Sorry sdajii
I’m with Ann on this one!


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## Ann (23 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Sorry sdajii
> I’m with Ann on this one!



Tech/a, I have looked into this consolidation stuff a bit further now, it is quite hair-raising. When it happened to me I just went meh, suck it up, ten grand won't kill me. Then I thought recently it may have been a tricky dick kind of move as in buy some rights with options attached and trade the options to get your money back. Can't see anything. I see TEN did a consolidation and then the price fell to nothing and Ten Network Holdings Limited (TNHL) was taken over by CBS International Television Australia Pty Ltd (CBS Australia) on 10 November 2017.  Sticking it to mountains of mug punters who all got done like dinners.  I think I will start a little project on ASF about Consolidations and see what I can see.


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## tech/a (23 December 2018)

Read the PEN 
thread perfect for your case !


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## Ann (23 December 2018)

This is a stock I would suggest everyone avoid like the plague, you run an excellent chance of losing all your money through a future stock Consolidation. It is a Rotting Souls stock.


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## Sdajii (24 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Sorry sdajii
> I’m with Ann on this one!




I'd love to hear your thoughts about SEA in the short, mid and long term. I assume you being you, you're purely looking at the technicals and ignoring the fundamentals? Given the nature of the company, I think the fundamentals are going to override the technicals within a few months. 

Interested in reading your thoughts, whatever they are.


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## Parse (24 December 2018)

Ann said:


> This is a stock I would suggest everyone avoid like the plague, you run an excellent chance of losing all your money through a future stock Consolidation. It is a Rotting Souls stock.




Hey Ann, they just did a stock consolidation. Does this mean you think they are going to have another consolidation? And if so, what time frame are you thinking?


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## tech/a (24 December 2018)

Sdajii

I think the weekly chart sums it up very well visually.
This basing for the last 2 years is both distribution and accumulation.
But the ranging tells me that there is impatience,very few hold on
for years with decaying return.

If you firmly believe that "Fundamentals will kick in in the coming months"
Then you will clearly see that in the chart. *High volume and gaps to the up side.
*
But sitting here waiting is not a good trading strategy.


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## Ann (24 December 2018)

Parse said:


> Hey Ann, they just did a stock consolidation. Does this mean you think they are going to have another consolidation? And if so, what time frame are you thinking?




G'day Parse, no I doubt it not immediately, they may do a small one a bit later if they need to mop up a few more investors left behind, cleanse their books so there are no angry stock holders invited to their next AGM, you know, those pesky old farts who want the free coffee and bikies at the beginning of the meeting and who have just been robbed of their few measly superannuation dollars.

Check out what the ASX SEA chart looks like at the moment, screaming there is a big rise in SEA levels of 614.29% BULLSH!T ASX! I have a screenshot for future reference. Friday's close was 0.295, it is currently trading at 0.30, this is no 614.29% rise. I hope people sucked into this because of the ASX can get some future redress.

*Wealth Warning: This company does stock Consolidations which may lose you your entire investment.*


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## Darc Knight (24 December 2018)

Ann said:


> G'day Parse, no I doubt it not immediately, they may do a small one a bit later if they need to mop up a few more investors left behind, cleanse their books so there are no angry stock holders invited to their next AGM, you know, those pesky old farts who want the free coffee and bikies at the beginning of the meeting and who have just been robbed of their few measly superannuation dollars.
> 
> Check out what the ASX SEA chart looks like at the moment, screaming there is a big rise in SEA levels of 614.29% BULLSH!T ASX! I have a screenshot for future reference. Friday's close was 0.295, it is currently trading at 0.30, this is no 614.29% rise. I hope people sucked into this because of the ASX can get some future redress.
> 
> *Wealth Warning: This company does stock Consolidations which may lose you your entire investment.*




ASX has updated the % but Google still brings it up as "614% (ASX)"

https://www.google.com.au/search?so...358.3-1......0....1j2.......3..41.n0OeC8sWkKk


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## Sdajii (25 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Sdajii
> 
> I think the weekly chart sums it up very well visually.
> This basing for the last 2 years is both distribution and accumulation.
> ...




Thanks for your thoughts. I agree, you wouldn't buy or hold this based on the technicals, but I do believe in the fundamentals. If the technicals pull the price down before the fundamentals do their thing (the big change being oil price), there should be a good opportunity here. How low would you expect SEA to go over the next 1-3 months assuming oil doesn't improve in that time? Any idea on timeframes?


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## Parse (27 December 2018)

I must admit I'm more a fundamentalist then a technical analysis person. SEA has been hit hard with the state of the stock market and the crash in oil prices. OPEC+ has tried to stem the bleeding of the POO, but it hasn't worked. The rumour mill is even suggesting that OPEC are considering an emergency meeting to further cut production.

Still, January looks brighter as that's when the OPEC+ cuts start and we might see less oil on the market from OPEC+. Given that the USA supply is at a high one might think that this reduction from OPEC as insignificant, but there are also concerns that the shale producers in the USA aren't going to do real good with prices lower then $50. However SEA does have a lot of hedges up around the $60 mark which should keep it buoyant.

Thus I am thinking oil isn't going to stay at these levels and will rise, taking SEA's share price with it. As such I am tipping it again in the January comp, Sdajii will most probably want the same pick!


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## Sdajii (27 December 2018)

I chose SEA as my top pick for the 2019 competition. My reasons are pretty simple and largely based on my very bullish outlook on oil. I strongly believe that within the first half of 2019 oil will hit $100 per barrel. That's another story from SEA, but assuming that external factor to be true it's very easy to see why SEA will perform extremely well. The technicals do currently look bad, but that will mean nothing if we have oil at more than double what it is now. Well, if anything, perhaps because it is going against the technicals so heavily, the previously negative technical situation may cause an extra boost thanks to the contrast.

Parse: Yes, I was going to choose SEA for January and then saw you'd already taken it. Being bullish on oil I chose another oiler instead. I'm not entirely sure how oil will go in January. I am guessing it will start to pick up and continue on from there, but it's a little bit difficult to predict around now, which I see as the turning point. It may take off in January or flutter around at these levels for a while. Best of luck with SEA in January, I will be very, very pleased if you win, even if I don't get the little extra cherry on top


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## Parse (28 December 2018)

Ha!  I actually went looking to see if you had already picked it as I thought you might.

I umm'd and ahh'd a little over the pick and wondered if waiting for February would be a better idea. Oil is more likely to stabilise by then and SEA would have a quarterly out with hopefully some included hedge prices. Then knowing myself I figured if I let it go and picked something else in Jan the damm thing would most probably go gangbusters. Guess a bit of FOMO got me for January.


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## Sdajii (28 December 2018)

Parse said:


> Ha!  I actually went looking to see if you had already picked it as I thought you might.
> 
> I umm'd and ahh'd a little over the pick and wondered if waiting for February would be a better idea. Oil is more likely to stabilise by then and SEA would have a quarterly out with hopefully some included hedge prices. Then knowing myself I figured if I let it go and picked something else in Jan the damm thing would most probably go gangbusters. Guess a bit of FOMO got me for January.




I think January is going to be an interesting month across the board. I'm not entirely sure about SEA but I think you'll probably do well (well, I'm a holder so I'll do well regardless of missing out in the January competition!). By the end of February I have little doubt we're going to be sitting well above the 31c we're at now. I have very high confidence that we'll beat out fairly recent price of $1.05 (adjusted) in the first half of the year, and perhaps even $2. The main thing holding us back will be our hedging, but as long as operations continue as normal, I am confident the increasing oil price will make this a multibagger in the next few months.

I'll try to pounce on SEA for February before you get it


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## Parse (1 January 2019)

This is typical. SEA floundering around 30c so I picked it for Feb thinking 'it's gotta at least gain something from here!'

And it did, up 16%! Problem is it did that on Dec 31st, now 36c

grrrrr....


----------



## Sdajii (2 January 2019)

Parse said:


> This is typical. SEA floundering around 30c so I picked it for Feb thinking 'it's gotta at least gain something from here!'
> 
> And it did, up 16%! Problem is it did that on Dec 31st, now 36c
> 
> grrrrr....




Oi! I'm getting it for February! Your claim is premature 

I still think you're going to go well in January and I will do well in February and I expect to be holding until mid year and smiling at over a dollar with oil at US$100 (and to those weirdos among us, no, I'm not claiming it will stop at $100 and I'm not claiming to know exactly how high it will go).


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## Parse (2 January 2019)

Sorry, typo, that was supposed to be Jan.

I think it will hit around $70 this year. That's the POO  not SEA


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## Sdajii (3 January 2019)

Parse said:


> Sorry, typo, that was supposed to be Jan.
> 
> I think it will hit around $70 this year. That's the POO  not SEA




$100 in H1 2019 $1 (SEA) H1 2019

More sure about POO than SEA, but it's difficult to imagine SEA not hitting a hundred Aussie cents if POO is a hundred American dollars.


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## Sdajii (22 January 2019)

Looks like you're likely to win the January tipping contest with SEA, Parse (I expected SEA to win, still kicking myself for being slack and letting you get it! Haha!). I saw Joe's February post within a minute of him putting it up and jumped right on it this time! I won't be surprised if I get first prize in February after you get it in January.

Everything is looking good, I'm still super bullish on oil over the next 5-6 months, and while SEA has already jumped up 50% from its recent lows, it's still undervalued relative to the current price of oil not to mention the fact that oil is in an uptrend (and if I'm right, that's going to continue). Given the lag in SEA's price recovery given the POO recovery, SEA is really shaping up for some good gains in the near future. I can't remember the last time I was this confident about a stock in the short to mid term. It's already my largest holding but I'm considering selling some other stock to buy more SEA, and if I have some more funds come my way soon enough I'll be buying more.


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## Parse (23 January 2019)

I am confident as well, but not as confident as I would like. I was once expecting SEA to surpass the $1 mark first half of this year, but now I am not so sure about anything over 80c. Of interest is that the POO fell overnight yet SNDE went up. I see the SNDE price as a major factor for SEA now.

However I am still optimistic once this China trade war thing and US shutdown thing are over (no matter what happens) POO/SEA will be on the up.


----------



## Sdajii (21 February 2019)

And indeed, nearly a month later, oil is up, and looking like continuing. SEA's price is lagging (gave me a chance to top up!) but it should catch up soon. I think SEA is still lacking a bit of love since dropping back the drilling plans, but with oil looking up they may change that which would give us a real kick, and even without it, we're clearly undervalued now and set for a nice run. I think the technicals are currently holding us back, which started with the drop in oil price and subsequent cut back on drilling plans, but this is all temporary stuff, giving a temporary low share price. Brilliant buying opportunity. I feel a bit bad, talking about SEA makes me feel like a shameless ramper, but I do think we're going to see at least a 100% gain from here in under 6 months. Part of that is because I'm very bullish on oil, and if you were to forecast oil to sit stable or only make modest gains over the next 6 months, then 100% is probably right out of the question, but even in that scenario I think you'd do very well.


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## Parse (22 February 2019)

I think SEA will win the March tipping comp for you, I can't see it being under 50c at the end of March (guess I just gave it the kiss of death?).

I have been following SNDE a bit and trying to figure out whats driving the market price there. But I see very little news or talk on SNDE and thus I feel like a mushroom in the dark on this subject. It's fairly obvious SEA follows SNDE like a lost puppy, I just can't see whats leading SNDE. It doesn't appear to be the POO.


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## Sdajii (22 February 2019)

I think SEA has a strong chance of winning March, the potential issues are that its (IMO) inevitable run begins before the end of February and doesn't really kick off heavily in March, continuing into April. And of course some other speccy may get 150% or something, you never know. The competition is literally just fun and games though, and as a holder I'm mostly interested in SEA increasing overall, regardless of how that coincides with calendar months and speccies which happen to be chosen in the competition.  Reasonably confident I'll at least place in March though, and expecting I'll probably still be in the red at the end of February, though I certainly wouldn't be surprised to edge into the green.

All things considered, it's easy to imagine someone is holding the SEA price down and a takeover is coming. While that would give me some quick profit I'd really hate it to happen, and it wouldn't be the first time I've been 'robbed' of most of the potential profit on oil company takeovers. If someone wanted to right now they'd probably be able to get SEA for under 80c, but I really think we'll be over $1 within six months (again, this assumes the POO does what I expect, and we certainly wouldn't get it in six months on less than $60 WTI)


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## Sdajii (19 March 2019)

Looks like March isn't going to be SEA's month, although I do think we'll probably end the month a little up rather than a little down. I chose SEA again for April (which will come as a surprise to no one!), for similar reasons. It's leveraged to the price of oil which I'm bullish on (as I've said in the oil price thread since back into last year, I predicted it would drop below $52 which it did and then rise up to over $100 before the end of Q3 2019, and it's currently on the way up. The price of oil is an external topic to SEA of course.

The share price hasn't been doing well for the last couple of months partly because the price of oil took a tumble and hurt the sector's sentiment (par of why I wanted to be accumulating at the time) and partly because admittedly, while SEA's management are great deal makers, they are pretty lousy managers of oil projects. This has resulted in SEA being very undervalued in terms of its assets, and considering the less than brilliant management it's understandable. If it gets too bad we'll just get taken over (and hey, I'd make a handy profit from that anyway), but if oil does anything like what I think it will, SEA won't be able to avoid holders getting multibaggers from this point.


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## Sdajii (21 April 2019)

WTI continues its rally while SEA lags in share price, despite making good fundamental progress. I think May is going to be good for SEA. I realise I have been saying that for a while without it happening, but the longer it takes for the share price to move while the company fundamentals and the price of oil increase, the further up we seem destined to go.

Concerns at the moment revolve around a bottleneck in production capacity (it's nice to have produced more than expected and for this to be causing a problem, but the market seems to only say 'management is crap' rather than 'wow, nice production'). This should be resolved this week if I have the timeline correct. Apparently work commenced April 15 and was supposed to take 4-5 days. If they're working over Easter it should be complete about now with a nice announcement on Tuesday, and if not it should be later in the week.

Production is exceeding predictions, and based on those predictions at a much lower oil price ($55 vs the current $64) brokers had price targets of multiples of our current one.

Interestingly, earlier this month a clear ascending triangle pattern began, and just before it broke out, a sudden pile of sales prevented it (if those sellers simply held off rather than dumping hard, they'd have been able to sell at a higher price). Then on Thursday a rally began, and just before 43.5c was broken through, a massive 990,000 sell order at 43.5c went up, predictably spooking the market and preventing the price from going higher (no more sold at 43.5c, predictably that 'seller' didn't sell any). And in the auction the price was aggressively pushed down at the last minute to below the MA price, no doubt driving away the technical analysts. I'm certainly hoping it's accumulation rather than a takeover setup as I'd hate to be robbed by another one of those, but I suppose even if it's a takeover, a smaller profit is better than nothing.

I'm not quite as bullish on oil as before, but still expecting WTI in the mid 80s this quarter, which should comfortably get SEA well over $1. WTI at $65 should start things moving, WTI at $70 should really pick the pace up, and it seems like that will happen at a time when SEA has a few bits of good news (production seems on track to further exceed guidance). I think May and June will be great months for SEA.


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## Smurf1976 (24 April 2019)

I'm not aware of any obvious reasons but it's up over 13% on Tuesday.


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## Sdajii (24 April 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm not aware of any obvious reasons but it's up over 13% on Tuesday.




It is heavily undervalued (I know that's a painful cliche, but it really is) and the oil price rally brought attention to it. I am confident that will continue into the week and probably next week too. Tuesday's SEA rally should have it on people's radars tonight and hopefully buying interest will outweigh profit takers tomorrow, but either way I'm confident we'll finish this week above where Tuesday's rally left off.


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## peter2 (24 April 2019)

I agree with Sdajii. There was a break out in BPT, STO today also. WPL, OSH jumped up.


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## qldfrog (24 April 2019)

But i bought in yesterday so it will fall
Sorry guys..


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## Smurf1976 (24 April 2019)

qldfrog said:


> But i bought in yesterday so it will fall
> Sorry guys..



OK so far.


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## barney (24 April 2019)

qldfrog said:


> But i bought in yesterday so it will fall
> Sorry guys..




Reverse psychology worked like a charm ….. Going like a rocket


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## Sdajii (25 May 2019)

Sdaji picked it again for June!

As a shareholder, May is shaping up to be a pretty bad month for SEA, although as someone tipping it for June in the competition things are looking fantastic! Haha! The crash in oil price has not surprisingly hurt SEA's share price, but I am very bullish on oil in June. I suppose I've been saying I'm bullish on oil every month this year, but hey, for the most part that has turned out to be justified (if anyone is interested, I posted a bit about my thoughts about POO in the near future in the oil price discussion and analysis thread).

SEA is still in much the same situation it has been in for the last few months. Clearly undervalued if oil prices remain in the vicinity of where they are, even if there is a short or medium term fall (SEA is heavily hedged on oil price so very resilient to short term drops) but the sentiment is poor due to heavy debt (which SEA will comfortably deal with once it goes cash flow positive which it soon will unless oil prices absolutely collapse and stay low long term, or if there is a severe internal disaster).

High debt and lack of confidence in the oil price, despite heavy hedging, is pretty clearly holding the share price down. The two things I think will increase the share price in the near future are the POO improving, and even if that doesn't happen, the company turning cashflow positive and reducing debt, which I'm sure the market will respond positively to. Cashflow positive probably won't be something we'll see in June, but hopefully as it gets closer and more obvious on the horizon the market will respond. For the sake of my tip in the competition, let's hope the market doesn't notice until June 3.


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## Miner (25 May 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Sdaji picked it again for June!
> 
> As a shareholder, May is shaping up to be a pretty bad month for SEA, although as someone tipping it for June in the competition things are looking fantastic! Haha! The crash in oil price has not surprisingly hurt SEA's share price, but I am very bullish on oil in June. I suppose I've been saying I'm bullish on oil every month this year, but hey, for the most part that has turned out to be justified (if anyone is interested, I posted a bit about my thoughts about POO in the near future in the oil price discussion and analysis thread).
> 
> ...



Well said. How is cash situation for Sundance ?


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## Sdajii (25 May 2019)

Miner said:


> Well said. How is cash situation for Sundance ?




Looking pretty good. A lot of debt which is possibly the single biggest thing hurting sentiment and causing it to be so fundamentally undervalued. The other main one is doubt about the price of oil, and these obviously go hand in hand - if the future oil price was guaranteed to stay where it is now nothing other than an internal disaster would prevent the company from being valued at multiples of the current level, but debt exacerbates the risks of a lower oil price. However, with all the hedging in place there's no need for a capital raising before they will be cashflow positive (if oil prices stay low long term the hedging will phase out over time of course), they're getting close to positive cashflow and once that line is passed they can start reducing the debt.

Most broker price targets have been done with an assumption of WTI at $55 and have figures around $1.20-$1.60, around 3-4 times the current price with the assumption of oil lower than where it is now. Anything over $1 would make me pretty happy.


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## Sdajii (23 June 2019)

Well, after May wasn't exactly a good month for SEA, June has been just hideous! Having said that, we seem to have turned the corner.

Folks have been talking down shale, the price of oil is (was?) down, tax time selling kicked in and smacked SEA hard, it has been the perfect storm, very nasty. However, the fundamentals of SEA are still looking great. The POO was down, but SEA is heavily hedged and was still making good money, more than guidance, even when oil was at its lows this month. With WTI oil at guidance price of $55 most analysts value the company around a dollar, and we've continued to do better than that, yet the price dropped to around 20c! With the rebound in POO, SEA has begun the recover too, and I expect we'll see some good movement over the next 6 weeks.

This will be the last week of tax loss selling, perhaps we'll see a bit of it in early July, but then that issue should be over. POO is on the way up with tensions in the middle east continuing to rise, Trump told Iran not to disrespect him again or it will be the end of Iran, and they then say Trump isn't worth exchanging messages with because he just doesn't deserve that much respect, then they shoot down a US drone. I must admit, I got my POO prediction for H1 2019 very wrong (unless we see something astonishing in the next week or so), but still, what I was expecting looks like it might play out, just slightly later. For a very long time, if a war has started towards the end of a US President's first term, he has won a second term. Perhaps not surprisingly, wars tended to start more often towards the end of first terms.  Trump has been trying to pick a fight with Iran as we get later into his first term. We'll see what unfolds.

As for SEA specifically, the bottom line is looking excellent, they have exceeded guidance in terms of prices, and presumably net profits. They should be cashlow positive ahead of schedule, so the next quarterly (due next month, most likely we'll get it near the end) should look great and give us a nice boost. I chose SEA in the monthly competition (again!) and for that sake I hope they release the quarterly on the 30th rather than the 31st! (or early on the 31st). Even so, I think the market will expect it to be good and we should get positive movement towards the end of the month.


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## Sdajii (21 July 2019)

A month later an not much has changed. The fundamentals are still looking great, oil price is still holding above guidance, production is coming along nicely, analysts and brokers still value it around $1.20 and the price is still in the low 20s!

Especially in light of the risk-minimising hedging SEA has and the clear reference given by the Dimmit sale, the book value of well over a dollar seems completely reasonable. For those that don't know, the Dimmit sale saw SEA sell some of its non core assets, and based on the price of the land and assets sold, their remaining assets minus debt gives a book value of over five times the current share price! The market just doesn't seem able to see past the unconditional hatred of shalers and debt, and the shorters are working heavily to keep the price down for now.

Given the fact that we did just find a buyer for some of our operation, and our remaining assets are better than what we sold, and a takeover at approximately 3 times the current share price would give the mob taking it over a deal 50% cheaper than what we just sold, SEA seems like a very obvious potential takeover target.

It's quite remarkable that the market just isn't reacting to everything going on. I'd say surely the market will be unable to ignore the quarterly, but I suppose if it has ignored everything up until now, it can probably also ignore a brilliant quarterly clearly showing the company is quite tangibly worth literally around 5x the current share price.

Seems like a great undervalued stock to buy for anyone who has a bit of patience. The only real risk is the oil price, but OPEC have indicated they are committed to protecting the price from sustained crashes for some time, and SEA is heavily hedged, so brief drops won't fundamentally hurt. It does seem that the market does hate SEA, but with the cashflow about to turn to positive and with that set to continue increasing, the market can't ignore it forever, at least you'd think. If the cashflow gets too good and the share price remains too low, hopefully we'll see a company buyback. I'd love to see that.


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## peter2 (31 July 2019)

Read their recent investor presentation and it seems mgt is going to try to run a leaner operation and to  keep costs below revenue. Oil production is 80% hedged at $60/bbl in 2019. They plan for SEA to be self funding and cash flow neutral or positive by EOY 2019. 

Sounds great, but then I've never read a poor investor presentation. I'll wait for the instos to start buying in order for me to get interested. SEA has got to be near the bottom. Worth putting in my reversal watch list.


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## Sdajii (4 August 2019)

peter2 said:


> Read their recent investor presentation and it seems mgt is going to try to run a leaner operation and to  keep costs below revenue. Oil production is 80% hedged at $60/bbl in 2019. They plan for SEA to be self funding and cash flow neutral or positive by EOY 2019.
> 
> Sounds great, but then I've never read a poor investor presentation. I'll wait for the instos to start buying in order for me to get interested. SEA has got to be near the bottom. Worth putting in my reversal watch list.




It does sound great, and assuming there aren't any extremely surprising nasties within the company, which seems something we can be reasonably sure of, the only real risk is the oil price... which of course is not an entirely trivial risk,  but failure is already priced in and all we need for a multibagger on this one is oil sitting around current levels (or big bonus for any higher) and admittedly, a bit of patience.

The market is just terrified of 'shale and debt! Argh!' which is bringing this down.

Of course, a takeover wouldn't be at all surprising, especially given our recent sale indicating that if the directors wanted to (which they won't because they'd be out of a job) they could sell our assets, pay off the debt, give shareholders 5 x the current share price and call it a day.

Another possibility which wouldn't be terribly surprising is a partial asset sale. A few years ago SEA actually did sell a portion of its assets for more than the total market cap at the time, giving the company a net cash position of more than the market cap (the market cap obviously jumped very quickly afterwards) plus significant remaining assets. It would be possible to do the same thing again now.


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## Sdajii (16 August 2019)

Well, here we are again, I choose SEA for the August tipping contest.

Two months ago I was expecting the quarterly to put us on the radar and for SEA to rerate. A month ago I figured that the quarterly was probably not going to have any surprises, it would show a fundamental value worthy of a rerate, but the market wasn't going to care. Two weeks later that's what happened.

Same old story, fundamentally fantastic, operations are coming along steadily, quite a few brokers with targets, all over 4x the current price, average around 6x the current price, the recent Dimmit sale indicates we're worth even more than that, but the market just currently hates shale and debt, even given our hedging in place.

It seems likely that we're going to sit heavily undervalued like this until there's a takeover, a massive spike in oil prices for whatever reason, or in a year or two oil prices will either have increased in which case we'll all have made a fortune, oil prices will have averaged about what they are now and slow, tedious patience will begin to pay off, or the price of oil will have had a very long time significantly below the current figure and the fear will prove to have been justified. Given that failure is already priced in, this seems worth a punt (or if you're a poor soul who bought in at more than double the current price, it seems worth hanging on to. Actually, I know someone who paid over 5x the current price, poor guy).


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## Miner (16 August 2019)

SEA quarterly report was very reasonably but where is the snag that market fails to recognise and keep on reducing the stock value ?


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## Sdajii (19 August 2019)

Miner said:


> SEA quarterly report was very reasonably but where is the snag that market fails to recognise and keep on reducing the stock value ?




I think the issue is just caution due to debt. Even at an average $50 WTI the business is viable and worth far more than the current price, but the market is just so risk averse that they think the risk of a sustained low oil price making it impossible to repay debt is too high. If we do get a prolonged period of WTI greater than about $65, SEA should fly. It's conceivable that we could see $70-80+, in which case debt will be repayed very quickly and big profits will come in. That's obviously not the most likely future, but it if it did happen we could easily see a 10, maybe 20+ bagger as long as we weren't taken over.

If not for the debt, WTI would have to fall far below $50 to be a problem, but as the market clearly sees, the debt does exist, and a long term average of $40 or below would eventually be very destructive. I can't really see WTI averaging less than $50 over the next 12 months, although stranger things have certainly happened.

If the recent quarterly did nothing, even positive cashflow/active debt reduction, which we should see this quarter or if not next, may not be enough to do much to the stock price.


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## ducati916 (22 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> 1. Same old story, fundamentally fantastic, operations are coming along steadily,
> 
> 2. It seems likely that we're going to sit heavily undervalued like this until there's a takeover,




1. What is so positive re. the fundamentals? I had a look, didn't like what I saw. What might I be missing?

2. That is a possibility, what sort of price would you envisage?

jog on
duc


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## Miner (22 August 2019)

ducati916 said:


> 1. What is so positive re. the fundamentals? I had a look, didn't like what I saw. What might I be missing?
> 
> 2. That is a possibility, what sort of price would you envisage?
> 
> ...



Hi 
@ducati916 
It will be great to learn some key points on the report you did not like.
Cheers


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## Sdajii (22 August 2019)

ducati916 said:


> 1. What is so positive re. the fundamentals? I had a look, didn't like what I saw. What might I be missing?
> 
> 2. That is a possibility, what sort of price would you envisage?
> 
> ...




1) Assuming average oil prices of anything other than a dramatic and sustained drop, the company will generate profits justifying a much higher share price. Net revenue is increasing and will soon be sufficient to reduce debt and eventually generate either a lovely cash position or potentially dividends to shareholders. Alternatively, just looking at the potential sale price of their assets, they could sell up, pay all debts, and have a cash position of multiples of the current market cap.

What don't you like?

2) If someone wanted to take over right now they'd easily snap us up for less than I paid, although to be honest I'd probably not be arguing since I'd rather not patiently wait for what could be a year or two, maybe more, before the market is convinced. I can only guess, but it's probably fair to say that a takeover bid would be a huge vote of confidence and cause a rerate, but even so an attempt would probably be successful somewhere in the 30s. High 20s or low to mid 40s wouldn't entirely astonish me.

If a takeover was successful, it would easily be possible for the buyer to then flip the assets for a significant profit above what they paid, assuming they paid anything under 50CPS. Compare the price of the recent sale SEA made to what their superior and much larger remaining assets are clearly worth.

A takeover at this point wouldn't be in any way surprising. Many times I've seen oilers have their prices smashed down irrationally despite good news, shorters working hard, and after a strange, unexplained, sustained price much below the fundamental value, a takeover bid pops up.

I'm not too proud to admit I've mismanaged my money this year and so a takeover wouldn't upset me about now, but if I wasn't in my current position I'd be very worried about it. Either way, it seems like a great time to buy now either for the short term chance of a takeover or long term appreciation. Average broker targets for SEA are around $1, and while that may be a lofty goal, the realistic figure at the current WTI price can be a long way below $1 to make the current price of 16c look very attractive, and in the event that oil does jump for whatever reason, we could easily go far above $1 (you can decide for yourself about the odds of a significant rise in oil prices, it's not something I'm expecting in the near future, but there's the possibility).


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## barney (23 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Many times I've seen oilers have their prices *smashed down* irrationally despite good news, shorters working hard, and after a strange, unexplained, sustained price much below the fundamental value, *a takeover bid pops up*.




Indeed …… The start of my long road to trading recovery many years back was when Adlephi Energy (ADI) after what seemed an age was taken over around 42 cps from memory  … I think it was trading at 6 cents at the time.

Oilers can be really frustrating and you have to be very patient/long suffering at times

I hope this plays out as you hope in the end Sdajii …  You've done your research on it so I'd say back your judgement


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## Sdajii (24 August 2019)

barney said:


> Indeed …… The start of my long road to trading recovery many years back was when Adlephi Energy (ADI) after what seemed an age was taken over around 42 cps from memory  … I think it was trading at 6 cents at the time.
> 
> Oilers can be really frustrating and you have to be very patient/long suffering at times
> 
> I hope this plays out as you hope in the end Sdajii …  You've done your research on it so I'd say back your judgement




I certainly remember that one being announced. It was at the time my biggest ever profit, and it was the first time I had a holding increase by $10,000 in a single day. I put my profits into EKA and AUT and did well on them too, eventually getting to the point where 'ten thousand dollar days' were quite familiar. Actually, I was also holding EKA when it had its takeover (which was at a painfully low price, much as SEA would be if it was to be taken over now, but despite making much less than I hoped/should have, I did very well) and painfully I sold out of AUT the day before the takeover announcement, but I did make about $200k out of AUT along the way, which was amazing at the time, considering I'd had less than a grand to my name just months before buying into ADI, and never having had more than about $20k to my name before then.

I can't say the last 6-12 months have been so pleasant, and it has come at a terribly inconvenient time for me, but your reminder of the ADI takeover is quite apt, and almost exactly 10 years ago IIRC. Thanks for the pleasant and relevant memory. It does show how skewed the prices can be, and well demonstrates what I was saying in the post you quoted.


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## ducati916 (24 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> 1) Assuming average oil prices of anything other than a dramatic and sustained drop, the company will generate profits justifying a much higher share price. Net revenue is increasing and will soon be sufficient to reduce debt and eventually generate either a lovely cash position or potentially dividends to shareholders. Alternatively, just looking at the potential sale price of their assets, they could sell up, pay all debts, and have a cash position of multiples of the current market cap.
> 
> What don't you like?
> 
> ...




Things I don't like on the Income Statement:

i. Still no net profit; and
ii. Rising COG; and
iii. Consistently high 'unusual expenses'.

On the Balance Sheet:

i. Very low cash position; and
ii. Increasing Receivables; and
iii. High Net Liabilities.

On the Cash-Flow

i. Low cash from ops (reflection of POO); and
ii. High depreciation (in a resources company, this can be an issue)
iii. Very high cash-flow from financing; and
iv. Very poor free cash flow.

Those are my issues. If they are accurate, then how do you see this as a takeover?

jog on
duc


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## barney (24 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> your reminder of the ADI takeover is quite apt. Thanks for the pleasant and relevant memory.




Yeah it was a memorable time in many ways


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## Sdajii (24 August 2019)

ducati916 said:


> Things I don't like on the Income Statement:
> 
> i. Still no net profit; and
> ii. Rising COG; and
> ...




Some of this is irrelevant or I disagree with it (increasing cost of goods?), and in some cases you've just found ways to repeat the same thing trying to sound like you're saying something different, but yes, the two relevant issues are debt/cash position and price of oil.

If anything, cost of production should continue to decrease as shale technology improves. This has been an ongoing trend, including for SEA.

Definitely, the reduced oil price has hurt us. If oil was still sitting at $65+ SEA would probably still have a share price of over a dollar, and at $75+ we'd possibly be over $2. The reality is that oil has taken a dive and seems to be floundering around the mid 50s. This is the reason everything fundamental has slowed right down for SEA and the share price has collapsed, but even at this price SEA is set to begin reducing debt just by plodding along with their existing business model continuing along. As the profitable business continues and debt reduces, interest repayments become less of a drain and positive cashflow increases. Do you agree with that or do you think they're never going to become cashflow positive, and if so, how can you justify that position?

The debt/cash position is almost completely irrelevant to a takeover. If anyone has enough money to buy SEA out, they presumably have enough money to cover the debt. This means they can simply buy the assets, pay off the debt, and utilise the assets without being hindered by debt repayments, clearly turning a nice profit. SEA's assets are already generating a lot of income, the only problem, even at the current low oil price, is that SEA must put that income into debt repayment. SEA is not struggling to generate income from its assets, it's already doing that swimmingly, it just needs to increase that income so that it is enough to cover debt. Even in this challenging set of conditions, SEA's income is indeed increasing and any time now it will exceed all expenses including debt repayments. The only remotely likely problem (and this one possibility is more than remotely likely) is a significant long term drop in average oil price. If you think WTI is going to average $20-30 over the next 2+ years then yes, I agree, SEA is probably going to bite the dust. If it's around current prices or better, SEA's proven existing model will generate healthy profits. And again, if someone else is sufficiently funded to buy SEA and pay the debt, they can just enjoy the income without the debt issue. The most unfortunate issue here is that the interest on the debt is very high. Bad for SEA, not for a well-funded buyer.

While oil prices are where they are and SEA's share price doesn't seem like jumping up too much too soon, potential buyers are probably going to play it cautiously and just sit and watch. If we get a takeover bid I'd say it will be in 3+ months, likely 6-12 months.


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## ducati916 (25 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> 1. Some of this is irrelevant or I disagree with it (increasing cost of goods?), and in some cases you've just found ways to repeat the same thing trying to sound like you're saying something different, but yes, the two relevant issues are debt/cash position and price of oil.
> 
> 2. If anything, cost of production should continue to decrease as shale technology improves. This has been an ongoing trend, including for SEA.
> 
> ...




1. Some of the issues are more pressing than others. I haven't prioritised them, simply highlighted them on their various statements. As such, some are interrelated, that is the function of statements, to provide a cross check.

2. That would seem to be a reasonable assumption.

3. Here is my issue with the 'bolded' part of your response. You posit POO needs to be $65+. While oil remains lower than that price, SEA are selling oil at a loss. This is where the depreciation charge becomes an issue, which is a using up of the oil in the ground, thereby reducing the value of the assets, although there will be debt reduction.

Therefore the important question is: which is progressing faster: (i) debt reduction or (ii) depletion of oil reserves? This would be an issue for anyone buying out the company, although they would have much better disclosure.

At current prices I would tend to agree that the depletion rate is probably in favour of a purchaser at the current depressed price. That however begs the question as to how high a premium to the current price remains, making it an attractive takeover target?

4. The cash position is critical. Currently, SEA is having to 'finance' current operations. That is an incredibly risky position to be in. The 2018 numbers demonstrated a massive increase, to the point where solvency must be a risk contemplated. There are some $34M in short-term investments as a cushion, but that is a pretty thin cushion.

5. So this becomes a highly leveraged play on POO. That is quite interesting to me.

jog on
duc


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## barney (25 August 2019)

ducati916 said:


> You posit POO needs to be $65+. While oil remains lower than that price, SEA are selling oil at a loss.




Duc,  I had a quick look at their recent preso …. I could be wrong (Sdajii can confirm) but their break even oil price is $30 per barrel and their 2019 price received was over $61 per barrel of oil (including hedging) and their Boe was just over $41 …..  

The POO has ranged between $45-85 over the last 2 years so any mid term future hedging looks ok.  

They should be making plenty of cash on those numbers??  If the POO gets a wriggle on over the next 12 months, and they knock the debt down, it should start to look fairly healthy.


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## ducati916 (26 August 2019)

barney said:


> Duc,  I had a quick look at their recent preso …. I could be wrong (Sdajii can confirm) but their break even oil price is $30 per barrel and their 2019 price received was over $61 per barrel of oil (including hedging) and their Boe was just over $41 …..
> 
> The POO has ranged between $45-85 over the last 2 years so any mid term future hedging looks ok.
> 
> They should be making plenty of cash on those numbers??  If the POO gets a wriggle on over the next 12 months, and they knock the debt down, it should start to look fairly healthy.




From what I have gleaned: they have assets that are older and a higher cost basis and newer assets that have a lower cost basis. I haven't tried to work out what figures are needed.

However, from the financials it would look to be much higher than $30 oil.

jog on
duc


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## Sdajii (26 August 2019)

ducati916 said:


> 1. Some of the issues are more pressing than others. I haven't prioritised them, simply highlighted them on their various statements. As such, some are interrelated, that is the function of statements, to provide a cross check.
> 
> 2. That would seem to be a reasonable assumption.
> 
> ...




These figures are wrong, and you've also misrepresented what I said.

I did not say that they needed $65 to be profitable. If we knew without doubt that oil was going to sit where it is in the mid $50s for the next several years, SEA would clearly be worth multiples of the current share price/market cap. I listed multiple scenarios, just one of which was $65WTI which would justify a an even higher price.

SEA is able to sell oil very profitably at well below the current price. A lot of what you've said indicates you completely misunderstand the economics of the situation. If we just look at the cost of production, it's well below $55 or even the $30 suggested by barney (an exact figure is difficult to calculate due to varying well performance a few unknowns). The problem SEA faces is that they have a large debt and thus need to not only produce and sell oil profitably, but they need to generate enough profit to meet debt repayments. They are currently approximately making enough to cover all costs plus debt repayments, and that situation is still improving; any time now SEA will become cashflow positive (that is, after all expenses including drilling of new wells and debt repayments, there will be surplus income), in fact, it might have already been passed.

Considering the above, if a buyer was to take SEA out now and repay all the debt, they would have no debt issue and simply a very nice profitable business. If they wanted to and had the funds they could profitably ramp up development. SEA is just not in a cash position to be able to do this, and working only on organic growth it will take some time, but if WTI stays exactly where it is, SEA will do very nicely in the long term. In fact, SEA's company guidance is based on $55 WTI.

Solvency is not a likely issue. It's not out of the question, but WTI would have to reduce significantly and stay low long term. Because of the heavy hedging, SEA could withstand very low WTI prices for a year or two before solvency would become a potential issue. Now, is it possible that WTI could hit $15-20 and stay there for a year or two? Possibly, and yes, that would be an absolute killer for SEA, but $60+ is surely more likely and would result in a very attractive position for SEA. The chances of WTI sitting at an average price of under $30 for the next year are approximately equal to WTI sitting at an average price of over $75 (my off the top of my head estimate only, feel free to disagree) and in the long term $75+WTI scenario SEA would easily be a 10 bagger IMO. My best guess is that oil won't stray too far from the $50s for a while and the market will leave SEA around the current share price for some time, probably ticking up a little when positive cashflow is announced, hopefully in the next quarterly.

Once cashflow positive status is confirmed, it should be obvious that if they are meeting all costs including debt repayments with money to spare, the cost of production excluding debt repayments is clearly well below the current sale price.


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## ducati916 (27 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> These figures are wrong, and you've also misrepresented what I said.
> 
> I did not say that they needed $65 to be profitable. If we knew without doubt that oil was going to sit where it is in the mid $50s for the next several years, SEA would clearly be worth multiples of the current share price/market cap. I listed multiple scenarios, just one of which was $65WTI which would justify a an even higher price.




What you said is that SEA would be sitting circa $1/$2 share: this price implies that it is profitable, because currently it is not profitable and hasn't been for a number of years.

The last time SEA showed a profit was 2014. In 2014 POO was up in the $90/$100 range. Since then nothing but significant losses.

Since 2015 POO has ranged a bit, but call it a midpoint of $60. Still losses.

My inference was [based on your analysis] that to reach a share price of $1/$2, which is significantly higher than currently, would require that SEA be profitable and that POO would need to be $65+ to make it profitable.

But given that POO has been around that mark for a year or so and SEA is still bleeding, I'm not convinced that POO is the only issue: hence my laundry list of issues, none of which you considered important enough to respond to.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (27 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Solvency is not a likely issue. It's not out of the question, but WTI would have to reduce significantly and stay low long term. Because of the heavy hedging, SEA could withstand very low WTI prices for a year or two before solvency would become a potential issue.




It is very much an issue. Simply look at the current cash + short term investment position. Then look at the financing cash flow.

If financing dries up...there is an issue.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (27 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> SEA is able to sell oil very profitably at well below the current price. A lot of what you've said indicates you completely misunderstand the economics of the situation. If we just look at the cost of production, it's well below $55 or even the $30 suggested by barney (an exact figure is difficult to calculate due to varying well performance a few unknowns).




Well I'm open to you explaining how that is the case, as the financials would seem to indicate differently.

jog on
duc


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## Knobby22 (27 August 2019)

All at SEA and in the POO.

Couldn't resist saying that for a laugh. 
Haven't looked at the company.


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## Knobby22 (27 August 2019)

Thought I better have a glance.
I note the analyst is predicting a PE ratio of 2.5 for 2020. Lots of wells going online.
Company going to transfer to US stock market.

It appears to me that they may be hitting a purple patch however I owned a similar company once and it's in a very competitive market and the locals always seem to somehow take a lot of the profit.

Probably worth seeing how it goes. Good luck.


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## barney (27 August 2019)

I'm not great at reading balance sheets etc …. I've extracted the info below from the Company's recent Presentation.  Obviously being a presentation, the Co. will be putting their best foot forward, but assuming they are being honest with their preso …… 

(Quick assessment in my words)

There are positives (higher earnings last FY .. well hedged into end 2020 .. low per barrel costs.) 

The main negative is the debt (current net debt $354million)

The Co. states they will be Cash Flow neutral/positive 2nd half 2019 

*(Condensed directly from the Co. presentation below)*

Full-cycle *break even costs of ~$30.00 per boe* allows production and EBITDA growth under various oil price scenarios

*Free Cash Flow* generation expected in *2H19* 

• Average daily sales volumes of 13,898 boe/d, at *top end* of public guidance 

• Cash Operating Costs per Boe are *35% lower* than 2Q18 and 16% lower than 1Q19 

• Robust hedge book protects ~8,000 bopd (81% of forecast production) at ~*$60/bbl* floor for remainder of *2019*; *2020* crude hedges protects *5,605 bopd at ~$57/bbl* floor

* $50 MM of available short term liquidity* on balance sheet(4) *before Dimmit* proceeds

 • Announced *Dimmit* sale for *$29.5MM* purchase price adds further liquidity upon close 

• Sundance has *reached peak forecast net debt*, with reduction forecasted for 4Q19 • Debt-to-Consensus 2019 EBITDAX of 2.3x; *no debt maturities until 4Q 2022*

 Adjusted EBITDAX of $33.7 MM, a ~230% year-over-year increase compared to 2Q18


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## Sdajii (28 August 2019)

ducati916 said:


> What you said is that SEA would be sitting circa $1/$2 share: this price implies that it is profitable, because currently it is not profitable and hasn't been for a number of years.




That isn't the implication at all. It's possible to be profitable now and more profitable at higher sale prices, right? If it was currently operating by not only dealing with a massive debt but also sitting on assets actively operating at a loss, the company would have a market cap of close to zero rather than over a hundred million bucks. I'm puzzled that you can make such a huge misunderstanding.



> The last time SEA showed a profit was 2014. In 2014 POO was up in the $90/$100 range. Since then nothing but significant losses.
> 
> Since 2015 POO has ranged a bit, but call it a midpoint of $60. Still losses.




So much has changed during those years. Different land, different operations. Apples and oranges.

One thing SEA has been good at is buying assets/land, proving them up and selling them at much higher prices. In one case they sold a relatively small percentage of their assets for more than their total market cap! They haven't been great at being long term drillers/operators, that's true.

You seem to be confused about how the cashflow situation exists in the current situation though. If you were to suddenly pay off all their debt, SEA would be making a very nice profit. The only issue is that currently approximately all of the net profits are going to servicing company expenses *and debt repayments*, the debt repayments being considerable.

Perhaps your inability to grasp this concept is very common, which would go a long way in explaining the current share price.

Can I ask you, what would you think of SEA if they announced they were cashflow positive?



> My inference was [based on your analysis] that to reach a share price of $1/$2, which is significantly higher than currently, would require that SEA be profitable and that POO would need to be $65+ to make it profitable.




You assume too much and have a vivid imagination. I merely estimated that at that WTI price, that would be the current share price. If the oil price stays exactly where it is now, eventually SEA could quite possibly get up around $1, but that would take some time (that share price would be in the future, not now). If we had seen WTI at $65 for the last six months, I estimate we'd have that share price around now.



> But given that POO has been around that mark for a year or so and SEA is still bleeding, I'm not convinced that POO is the only issue: hence my laundry list of issues, none of which you considered important enough to respond to.




SEA isn't exactly bleeding. Even without an increase in WTI prices, SEA is on target to start turning a profit, reducing debt, and eventually bringing us into the black with profit still continuing. At the current WTI price that will take a long time, and it will take a long time for the market to take notice or care.


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## ducati916 (29 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> That isn't the implication at all. It's possible to be profitable now and more profitable at higher sale prices, right? If it was currently operating by not only dealing with a massive debt but also sitting on assets actively operating at a loss, the company would have a market cap of close to zero rather than over a hundred million bucks. I'm puzzled that you can make such a huge misunderstanding.




I would suggest that it is. If you look at pages 22/23 on this thread, when the share-price was moving higher in early 2014 to mid 2014, it was on earnings and the POO was also circa $100.

Then POO collapsed. As did the earnings of SEA. As POO settled lower, SEA has had nothing but losses since.

Therefore it is a reasonable inference for the share price to again hit $1+, the POO needs to be high enough to generate earnings.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (29 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> So much has changed during those years. Different land, different operations. Apples and oranges.




True, but some things haven't, viz continuing losses.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (29 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> You seem to be confused about how the cashflow situation exists in the current situation though. If you were to suddenly pay off all their debt, SEA would be making a very nice profit. The only issue is that currently approximately all of the net profits are going to servicing company expenses *and debt repayments*, the debt repayments being considerable.
> 
> Perhaps your inability to grasp this concept is very common, which would go a long way in explaining the current share price.




Actually, according to the statements, that may not actually be the case. Which is why I raised the 'depreciation' issue.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (29 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> SEA isn't exactly bleeding. Even without an increase in WTI prices, SEA is on target to start turning a profit, reducing debt, and eventually bringing us into the black with profit still continuing. At the current WTI price that will take a long time, and it will take a long time for the market to take notice or care.




Well that may well be true. Once the latest statement comes out we'll see. I am however sceptical. The 2018 figures were just about their worst so far.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (29 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Can I ask you, what would you think of SEA if they announced they were cashflow positive?




I'd be much more confident in putting money into the stock.

jog on
duc


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## Sdajii (30 August 2019)

ducati916 said:


> I'd be much more confident in putting money into the stock.
> 
> jog on
> duc




Interesting.

So are you unaware of them being about to become cashflow positive, even including debt repayments, or do you not believe the figures as presented? Unless something drastic happens (even if the price of oil drops fairly considerably), they're set to become cashflow positive before the end of the year, possibly this quarter.

If you are representative of a significant proportion of the market, the cashflow positive announcement, which should be one of the next two quarterlies, could bring quite a rerate.


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## barney (30 August 2019)

Sdajii said:


> If you are representative of a significant proportion of the market, the cashflow positive announcement, which should be one of the next two quarterlies, could bring quite a rerate.




Its up 20% from its lows this week ...  Volume only modest but at least its up.

A lot of Oilers getting attention at the moment so the Sector looks to be warming up ….


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## qldfrog (31 August 2019)

Yes covered some of the initial loss yesterday
Wait and see


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## ducati916 (31 August 2019)

barney said:


> *(Condensed directly from the Co. presentation below)*
> 
> Full-cycle *break even costs of ~$30.00 per boe* allows production and EBITDA growth under various oil price scenarios
> 
> ...




The immediate issue for me is the EBITDAX, which is earnings without:

(i) interest; and
(ii) depreciation/depletion

Further, what about capital expenditures? What (if any) guidance has been provided on this?

Those 3 costs (unaccounted for) will (very likely) swallow that $33M projection. Therefore, SEA will (likely) be showing another net loss.

The sale of the asset will provide some cash which lowers the insolvency issue.

Overall, still pretty risky. If it works out, yes, I agree the returns (should) make an investment (punt) at this point very good.

jog on
duc


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## Miner (1 September 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Interesting.
> 
> So are you unaware of them being about to become cashflow positive, even including debt repayments, or do you not believe the figures as presented? Unless something drastic happens (even if the price of oil drops fairly considerably), they're set to become cashflow positive before the end of the year, possibly this quarter.
> 
> If you are representative of a significant proportion of the market, the cashflow positive announcement, which should be one of the next two quarterlies, could bring quite a rerate.



@Sdajii 
Hope you would see the thread published by @peter2 just now
_Weekly scans:_ Charts that interest me. 
_Weekly consolidations (wait for the BO):_ GMA>3.20, IMD>1.40, AD8>7.65, ECX>1.65,
_Weekly bullish bars:_ DCG, PPE, *SEA (in the bargain bin),  *


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## Sdajii (1 September 2019)

Miner said:


> @Sdajii
> Hope you would see the thread published by @peter2 just now
> _Weekly scans:_ Charts that interest me.
> _Weekly consolidations (wait for the BO):_ GMA>3.20, IMD>1.40, AD8>7.65, ECX>1.65,
> _Weekly bullish bars:_ DCG, PPE, *SEA (in the bargain bin),  *




He says don't fall for rubbish in the bargain bin then in the same post says SEA is looking good and currently is in the bargain bin? 

Tomorrow should be interesting, SEA was up on Friday but then oil took a hit after the ASX closed. We'll see where oil opens tomorrow and what SEA does.


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## peter2 (2 September 2019)

I thought you may have noticed that contradiction. There's been some increased demand in SEA over the past week. One bullish weekly bar doesn't change the downtrend and there's been a few false starts in the recent past. I do have an edge trading reversals and I'm very tempted by SEA at 0.175 with a tight iSL. The R:R at this price is attractive provided I minimise the downside exposure.


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## Sdajii (2 September 2019)

peter2 said:


> I thought you may have noticed that contradiction. There's been some increased demand in SEA over the past week. One bullish weekly bar doesn't change the downtrend and there's been a few false starts in the recent past. I do have an edge trading reversals and I'm very tempted by SEA at 0.175 with a tight iSL. The R:R at this price is attractive provided I minimise the downside exposure.
> 
> View attachment 97237




Yeah, pretty silly contradiction there! Having said that, I agree with his intended message.

It's true, one week of bullish movement doesn't guarantee a downtrend has ended, but all things considered it's pretty easy to imagine things improving from here. If I wasn't having my worst financial year in over a decade and I had some available funds I'd be buying up more now. But hey, SEA had a big hand in giving me my worst financial year in over a decade, so what can I say? Haha.


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## Miner (2 September 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Yeah, pretty silly contradiction there! Having said that, I agree with his intended message.
> 
> It's true, one week of bullish movement doesn't guarantee a downtrend has ended, but all things considered it's pretty easy to imagine things improving from here. If I wasn't having my worst financial year in over a decade and I had some available funds I'd be buying up more now. But hey, SEA had a big hand in giving me my worst financial year in over a decade, so what can I say? Haha.



Just considered lessons learnt on SEA is like saving money towards education not taught in Harvard. 
You will feel better then


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## barney (11 September 2019)

A lot of the recent gains wiped today.  SEA looking to relocate their listing to the Nasdaq and terminate the ASX listing.  Directors like it … the market didn't apparently.  Not sure how this will affect S/H's … What do you guys think about the plans?


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## Sdajii (11 September 2019)

barney said:


> A lot of the recent gains wiped today.  SEA looking to relocate their listing to the Nasdaq and terminate the ASX listing.  Directors like it … the market didn't apparently.  Not sure how this will affect S/H's … What do you guys think about the plans?




Today was a very painful day. This has been my worse financial year for over a decade, the last two weeks or so seemed like SEA was finally turning around and I was almost feeling hopeful, then today we get this shocker.

Obviously an announcement saying the board unanimously recommends the company cease trading on ASX is going to immediately smash the price on the ASX. Why buy something on a platform which you soon may not be able to sell it on? Hopefully the market overacted today and there will be a recovery tomorrow, but it's also possible the panic will continue. Difficult to call.

The market hates uncertainty and this will overall keep the price lower than it otherwise would be until we get the result in November, and I expect that will increase the American price either way.

This company has made a few moves not related to the fundamentals of the company (particularly this one and the consolidation a few months ago) which have had large and predictable impacts on the share price, which may well raise eyebrows in anyone paying attention. The timing of this, just as a recovery was beginning and set to go into full swing, but before it actually did, is... well, it perhaps says something unpleasant.

Long term this is probably a very good time to buy. Very short term it's a bit difficult to call, and it's likely that buyers on the ASX will end up needing to set up trading on the US system (which apparently is quite easy anyway, but I must admit I know almost nothing about) if they want to hold beyond November. I seems very likely the price will be much better by early November anyway. Interesting times over the next two or three months.


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## Smurf1976 (11 September 2019)

Sdajii said:


> The timing of this, just as a recovery was beginning and set to go into full swing, but before it actually did, is... well, it perhaps says something unpleasant.



To me, what it says is that management aren't particularly concerned about shareholders.

Price starts to recover on good news, gets smashed down by a purely voluntary action by management. Enough said.


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## Knobby22 (11 September 2019)

I did post on August 28th that they said in their report that they were going to do this.
It will make life easier for them as a US company working in the US.

Maybe you should keep holding. It will be interesting to own a US company and see how it works.

Questions to ask though are:
Will they tax you when you sell?
Can you claim the losses in Australia against profits?
I have never bought foreign shares so don't know.


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## N2Seeker (11 September 2019)

To my completely untrained eyes, paragraph 3, page one of the asx announcement reads like share consolidation by a different name? Looks like a new 'parent company' has been put together to take over SEA while giving investors one share of the parent for every 100 held in SEA? Is 'holdco' in this announcement being used in its abbreviation context or is that actually the (perhaps foretelling) name of the ultimate parent company?


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## PZ99 (11 September 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> I did post on August 28th that they said in their report that they were going to do this.
> It will make life easier for them as a US company working in the US.
> 
> Maybe you should keep holding. It will be interesting to own a US company and see how it works.
> ...



Neither do I. But I understand the US has punitive cap gains taxes so there seems little choice but to hold for the long term in the bigger market and hope for a shorter recovery.

I'd be talking to a tax agent to see if it's worth selling for a loss and buying back the next day (which might explain today's prices)


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## ducati916 (12 September 2019)

_DENVER, Sept. 10, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sundance Energy Australia Limited (ASX:SEA) (SNDE) (“Sundance” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce its decision to re-domicile from Australia to the United States via a proposed Scheme of Arrangement under Australian law (the “Scheme”), which is subject to shareholder, judicial and regulatory approvals. _

_If the Scheme of Arrangement is approved, the Company will transfer its primary listing to Nasdaq, and will cease to trade on the Australian Securities Exchange (“ASX”).  As part of the re-domiciliation, Sundance has entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement (“SIA”) with a newly formed US corporation (“Holdco”), which will become the ultimate parent company of the Sundance group of companies following the implementation of the Scheme.  Pursuant to the Scheme, Sundance shareholders will be entitled to receive one share in Holdco for every 100 Sundance shares held by Sundance shareholders on the Scheme record date.  The Company intends to cancel its sponsored American Depositary Receipt program following the implementation of the Scheme.
_
So to actively trade them you would need a US brokerage (platform) or a platform that allows trading of US listed shares (pretty common now).

With SNDE (ADR) trading at $1.35 (down 20% odd) if you purchased US $1000 you would have 740 shares +/-

If you bought AUS $1500 at $0.19 (rough exchange ratio) you would have 7894 shares/100 = 79 shares +/-

 The ADR must be a multiple of SEA shares (at this exchange ratio about 10X).

Initially, due to the messing around, probably a negative impact for a while. Might be an opportunity though for new entrants, if the fundamentals do in fact improve.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (14 September 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Interesting.
> 
> So are you unaware of them being about to become cashflow positive, even including debt repayments, or do you not believe the figures as presented? Unless something drastic happens (even if the price of oil drops fairly considerably), they're set to become cashflow positive before the end of the year, possibly this quarter.
> 
> If you are representative of a significant proportion of the market, the cashflow positive announcement, which should be one of the next two quarterlies, could bring quite a rerate.




So I have been trying to understand where this positive cash-flow might come from. 

The financials 2014 to 2018 reveal the following (all compounded):

COG + 10%
Sales + 5%
CapEx (-16%)

Hence the losses and poor showing.

Now as the 2019 annual report is not in, some guess work has to be substituted:

Sales +23%
COG +6%
CapEx +2%

So if these figures (kinda/sorta) workout, then yes, SEA could show positive cash-flow. My concern would be: if the CapEx was where it should be, would SEA still remain cash-flow positive? Further, the underinvestment (if this is correct) would come back to haunt SEA at some point in the future.

Thoughts?

jog on
duc


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## qldfrog (16 September 2019)

So far quite a nice day, should i send a cheque to Trump or to Iran?


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## Sdajii (16 September 2019)

qldfrog said:


> So far quite a nice day, should i send a cheque to Trump or to Iran?




A friend last night asked me about how I was going with money after I'd mentioned I'd been doing very badly over the last few months. I said I expected tomorrow (now today) I'd do well on the stock market. She didn't really understand that, so I didn't go on to say that I was expecting to be making money due to a massive drone attack in the middle east!

Today's gains were good but I'd say it has further to run this week unless SA announces that the plant is repaired and back in operation or imminently will be. Trump seems to be getting everyone expecting him to attack Iran, but I think he may just be playing games again so he can look like war was all on the cards but he decided against it because he has a great temperament, the best temperament, a temperament which is the envy of all others, and he is a very stable genius.

If the refinery is out of action long term (weeks rather than days) and/or Iran gets attacked and/or Yemen/'Iran' launches further attacks on Saudi Arabia (even if unsuccessful), oil should really run and SEA should follow.


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## Sdajii (28 September 2019)

The end of the September is an interesting time. Saudi Arabia has promised to be back up to full production before the end of the month, so early next week we should hear something about it. I'm a little doubtful they'll quite make it, but near enough will be good enough. The market is already pricing in the assumption that they will be, so there's some potential upside and little downside.

The SEA market seems to be pricing in an assumption that the Dimmit sale won't go through, presumably due to the buyer pulling out after the drop in oil price. I'm guessing it will go through so there's some upside for SEA next week/month.

It'll also be interesting to see if SEA managed to lock in any hedging during the peak of the recent oil price spike.


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## Miner (9 November 2019)

Folks
who are following SEA and holding, could you please share your thoughts on proposed 100:1 conversion offer and NASDAQ listing of this stock ?
Last few days the share price is going north, shareholders have approved the amalgamation and very soon the stock will NOT be traded on ASX. So it will be effectively a foreign stock and to be followed all norms as well as higher brokerage, different taxatio.
What is your view on holding the stock or to sell off now ?
I do have small holding but having a dilema.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191108/pdf/
[URL]https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191002/pdf/4494c63x2f2jp1.pdf[/URL]
From the 132 pages scheme booklet, unfortunately I am unclear at what price SEA is getting convered considering last few days the share price has gone up even the current price is at the bottom most phase.


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## qldfrog (9 November 2019)

I sold off at a significant loss not to bother
Remember link, any australian company successfully moving OS?
Shareholders here will be suckers is a usual trend from my history


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## System (28 November 2019)

On November 27th, 2019, Sundance Energy Australia Limited (SEA) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between SEA and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in SEA by Sundance Energy Inc.


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## Kremmen (9 January 2020)

Now that the move to NASDAQ: SNDE is complete, value is up a bit. (US$19.08, equivalent to 27.8c in old SEA equivalence.)

However, the move also means dealing with Computershare, who are inept, bureaucratic and greedy.
* Parts of their web site don't work properly.
* They insist on sending all documents by snail mail to your Australian address.
* They charge brokerage of US$25 + 12c/share.
(Note that a number of big US brokers have reduced their brokerage fees to zero recently.)


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