# All trading needs to cease for 14 days prior to Monday open in Sydney



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

Markets should PAUSE and shut down.

Howdy,

Having been around for a while, and a fossil in many ways, over the past 37 years involved in markets and most currencies, bonds, equities and commodities at various times, not much is new.

Famous last words. Often things I know are worthless or worth 1% of the heights they reach is not uncommon. Conversely, in times of panic and this time terror, the opposite occurs. People, seeing 50% of value lost illogically panic and sell. Other times when its a worthless asset the stop loss is the correct action to preserve capital.

Right now, either society ends, markets and economies crumble or they DO NOT.

The Billy Joel song, as a former head of trading for one of the worlds largest banks “I go to Extremes” springs to mind at times like this. The words, “so high and so low, with no in between” is so true of most activities on markets today where idiot savant trading dominates.

“_*I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.”*_ 
― Edgar Allan Poe

The CASE and precedent for hitting the pause button on all trading and equity markets is CLEAR.

*ALL TRADING OF EQUITES AND DERIVATIVES, Futures. options and others in G20 Markets needs to cease totally prior to Sydney opening and USA market futures opening Monday Morning. *

An opinion, but actually a no brainier. As one of few with 35 plus years experience still active in most markets from currencies to bonds and equities to commodities, to see for instance a 10% range in 8 hours on an equity Index USA trading representing 20 trillion or so, is and at best alarming.

Markets have stopped and all trading in Equities, derivatives and futures, options paused post 9/11 . It did so to stop irrational fear. IT also paused for some time after the Bombing of Pearl Harbour late 1941.

This time. It should not even BE a question.

USA sadly dropped the ball declaring the virus defeated at 15 cases. Denied it would hit them due to USA being, well, better or the best in the world is delusional in the extreme.

USA did NOT test in any significant numbers even till early March 2020. CDCC reported a mere 8,000 samples or less, and each sample being 2-3 per person its likely a mere 2,000 actual people were tested up till 10 days ago.

To ramp up to say EU test levels, takes time. CDC produces daily totals and these show snails pace verses what to reach say the 10,000 a day a nation less than 10% the size USA is appears where they are NOW.

Cases have risen, and PANIC … is not even close to what is about to occur.

USA as I type is 19,700 cases for 329 million people. Its testing at about 10% the level it needs to for it to identify those infected and isolate them.

USA equity futures open at 9 am Monday morning if allowed. They have limits at 5% where trading pauses in overnight trading, then at 13% and then at 20% where all trading for a day ceases.

It is sadly and without much doubt, that the reported cases in the USA rise dramatically even by Monday morning and it opens LIMIT down 5%, when trading resumes at 9.30 am NY time or about then it opens LOCKED limit down 13% and when it resumes after a pause, likely it sadly hits 20% down and all trading ceases. NO actual trades will occur in reality. It will go locked limit …



Would it not be prudent to HIT pause …. over illogical, if not idiotic fear ? Prior to this occurring and if allowed, its possible to do the same thing the next day.

Essentially end of everything. Possibly forever for some companies in the panic. They literally cease to exist as idiotic conditions exist.

Irrational fear, in fact, hysteria that has replaced denial is virtually guaranteed.

Its actually not unexpected. It seems they are in threat, their very lives according to the doomsday preppers society.


There is HOPE …

This FEAR, is NOT logical. Whilst understandable as a threat to your life, all be it minor if precautions are taken, THIS WILL PASS.

Comparing it to Spanish flu where even oxygen in hospital was not available nor ventilators is, well … absurd. Penicillin not invented or in use for 25 years to stave off infections ….

Whilst if NOT stopped spreading, CV19, the virus can be if allowed and not controlled, deadly. We KNOW what to DO.

PAUSE … deep breath.

This is one Tracker …. Johns Hopkins …



https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


And this another,

https://ncov2019.live/


Now after a lot of deep breathing, lets have a look.

China …. 80,000 cases … sadly 3,200 deaths and still some serious cases, 75,000 out of 80,000 cases, CURED or sadly they passed away.



*Virtually NO new cases for a nation of 1.3 billion people.*


This will of course matter bugger all for the MAYHEM about to hit.

USA and its leadership, which has 33% with pathetic health-cover or NONE will be the focus of the next weeks. USA USA USA …


So whilst it took TIME for China to attack the virus, massive testing and isolation/ social distancing WORKS.

Again likely forgotten in the next 2-3 weeks as the financial markets implode as the USA, as it always does, believes its the centre of the Universe.



Lets go to Hong Kong, hit by SARs MERs Avian Flu and Swine Flue issues in the past, with 7 million plus and in close proximity to China, its had a mere 256 cases identified.

Are you getting any sanity back into your perspective ?

DOES … now alerted to the threat, social distancing WORK ?
Of course.

Talk of all activity ceasing forever ? A common topic of the media. Did it happen in post 2003 Sars era ? Or other pandemics ? OF course not stupid.

It will NOT stop what will be likely an implosion IF ALLOWED … markets to open Monday.


USA will and is likely to go troppo.

Its sad numbers, eventually assured with extreme respect and regret to rise and rise till testing reaches around 10 times the current levels at say 100,000 plus tests a day.

Time and time again, idiotic if NOT absurd in the extreme on one side of ignoring a virus replaced with, which is normal doomsday preppers and idiots who have predicted the end of the world time and time again. The weird fascination I have for those shows and low tolerance for their reasoning is now replaced by, a real life event, that, well, if you DONT social distance or ignore a bloody virus that spreads, STUPID people prevail.

Deep breath. If someone comes inside your NOW personal space of 1.5 metres, for NOW, they are to be sprayed with bleach in the face to stop them.

All this aside, the absurdity of what is about to occur and USA is going to go from a slight unease and in some cases terror to total mayhem in the coming week. All of it based, upon little logic.

If sadly the USA hits 100,000 cases identified its a tragedy, much like Italy which is 25% the population and has hit 47,000 cases. Of course one can only wish it was not so and express our deepest sympathies for those lost and well wishes and prayers for those still fighting it.

We, as a species, as opposed to looking with some cynicism via USA media and cable news as the Chinese built hospitals and enforce quarantine and massive testing, many nations, ones already well versed in previous virus events did much the same.



Singapore revealed how far it could track visitors and citizens and anyone, anywhere, via CCTV and mobile signal was identified, read the riot act quarantined and locked away in threat of massive fines and jail and they had, 385 cases despite being a travel hub with about of 5 million locals. I wish, USA had similar outcomes and being 60 times the size, the 20,000 mark will be passed and exceeded in hours.

IT WORKS …. Social distancing.


All forgotten.

*MARKETS must close and SHOULD not open Monday*.


Predicting LOGIC … I suspect NO trading actually occurs in USA markets EVEN if they remain OPEN …. it locks LIMIT down at 5% …. Trading stops … no trades actually occur … between zero and down 5% … trading resumes and it LOCKS limit 13% .. DOWN … no trading occurs between 5% down and 13% down and reopens after a pause and likely 30,000 USA CV19 cases identified and all sanity and logic left in dust after some, with margin, loose everything and any exit NEEDED …. so the 20% limit down … cascaded into with NO real trading or exit seen. Repeat the next day ….

I will go beyond this. Stupidity and non factual events or actions have one thing that cures them. TIME or Scientific evidence and logic.

Obviously in panic, we ignore … the latter.

*CURES, Vaccines and ANTI Viral Agents*.



A cure, or treatments, some seem to work and some do not.

Why say Italy has been hit so hard, until scientific data and peer reviewed factual numbers are presented, speculation is the only observation. Sadly, kissing on the cheek on greeting and leaving of friends, not a good outcome and possibly why the initial viral load seems so high along with the spread.

Vaccines are great.

Right now, we NEVER have cured any virus or EVER produced a vaccine.

No Smallpox …. was never defeated.

Polio

Hepatitis C

Chicken pox

the list goes ON and on.



Nope we are never ever going to create a vaccine or so it seems.

*How astoundingly stupid and absurd*.

A vaccine works one hopes protects at close to 100% of the time and sometimes lower, but it stops the spread and human to human transmission. It also lowers the severity of the the thing in the case of the Flu if you get a different strain you will likely get it less severe.

Suggesting even with a straight face that a vaccine will not be developed is absurd. INSANE and in the Swine flu version it took some time to identify and map the thing, 10 times as long as it did in 2020, and when deployed it took a mere 4 months with technology to test and wheel out a vaccine. That was 2009. Not with double if not triple the technology and this time being conservative 10 times as many resources thrown at the task.

Do you really think, whilst CV19 related to MERS and SARS not swine flu, that it will take some time beyond 12 months ? It feels that way listening to some idiots they wheel out.


TIME will not be kind to these types.

Social distancing and isolation WORKS all by itself. Let alone a vaccine with 95-99.99% effectiveness and the Chinese with no reason to lie, and every reason NOT to, say they have one almost ready, limited testing and they have 9 at least they have been testing, ready if needed April.


Add to this 3 if not 5 others in very early stages testing a vaccine, IF NEEDED … which with my new personal space and not kissing random girls who beg me walking down the street, I have to say no for now !!

Whilst a lot of rubbish has prevailed via various media outlets. It is 2020.

NOT 1920.

That's a vaccine.

*ANTI VIRAL*

An Anti Viral is something given to lessen the severity of say Flu such as Tami Flu and its very big brother one gets in hospital which dumb it down in most cases.

NEW Flu and CV19 … we had and have no natural immunity unless your one of the very few who got SARs or MERS and MAY have some limited immunity one might expect to CV19 which is 85% of the same type of thing.

Well …. we humans, in 2020, have actually a long list of things for other viral infections. Anti viral agents, if they get out of hand. Some for bloody infections that actually are also very good at limiting and in some cases totally eradicating a virus if not putting it into suspended animation.

Cervical cancer, eventually, a virus hopefully will be a thing of the past. But a thing like Hepatitis C, HCV is a virus which can be eradicated in 2020. HIV a death sentence in 2020, well, suspended animation and the PREP that limits spread WORKS.

One and on one could go.

I noted, Japanese trug with some testing in China seems to work with CV19. So too a malaria drug in combination with a common penicillin works.



Astounding and encouraging.



Extremely. In the meantime, USA and doom and gloom types will prevail.

Here is a decent U tube



It missed many of the things that appear to hold promise and astoundingly quickly. I personally was not expecting any Anti Viral till after a vaccine which given the scope, and 20 massive drug makers in the vaccine side and some with multiple teams for the bigger ones working on a vaccine, its more than 30 working that side and if anything, 100 or more working on existing anti viral agents or new ones to slow the severity down.


Just a few links

Decent up to date as of now
https://www.drugs.com/condition/covid-19.html


Possible … but early stages …
https://observer.com/2020/02/coronavirus-convid-19-stock-gilead-sciences-drug-testing/

A few more with promise

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...drugs-show-efficacy-against-coronavirus-67052

All this …

sadly likely forgotten in the mayhem if MONDAY trading resumes.

Myopic self interested focus on USA totals infected and a real fear, for ones well being and this has crossed and will cross into hysteria.

Australia, CAN and should act alone as should EU markets should USA not.


If you have read this far, and I am sure some will disagree, some with vigour.

I am merely a person who has faced this type of event, all be it not the same, but not unlike where fear and logic needs time to take hold.

Interviewing a cafe owner who YES needs help as others hit initially, and government SHOULD act and not be stingy with 5% of GDP directly focused not a mere 1% Australia has seen.

Most say Cafe's have seasonal periods and if 3 weeks of 10% customers, in and when we have it contained, well identified, and virtually no new cases LIKE Hong Kong, trade will resume, not at 100% but 50% in a few weeks, then at 75% in 8 weeks. Some things, like airlines, and confidence have taken a hit, but if your suggesting the end of the world, again, we may change, learn a lesson and do things like being more prepared and social norms more careful, life WILL go on. Or for doomsday preppers gulping their cordial down now … it ends.

We are an island and most nations the same. Whilst tourism takes a hit, and reality and short term say 3 month impact occur, we have 10 million plus traveling overseas a year and a mere 8.5 million visitors. Things will return to some normality with I suspect more domestic tourism and less visitors when our borders open again.

Obviously, I have NO idea how this unfolds. I do hold hope and the fact that governments NEED to step in and fill the gaps for a while is astounding our Banks basically gave up 25% likely of their profits …. PRIOR to our bloody government acting is a disgrace. We have been running one of the tightest fiscal policies globally of any nation. NOT just balancing a budget but a surplus was to occur 2020. Obviously not now. Our debt to GDP ratio and NET debt to GDP ratio is astoundingly low lowest in G20 or close to it ?

*WAKE UP you DRONGOS in charge*. If your wrong and go to 5% of GDP stimulus pre Monday and even 10% supporting retailers and small business, casual workers, HUMANS … that's WHY … you saved. That virtually NO payments have eventuated to business from Bushfire support to date, given nearly 3 months have passed is pathetic.

If global markets DO NOT CLOSE …. and the USA do not see need, it will cause NO HARM … it will likely reduce it. I have no vested interest other than being long equities, and if the ones I own. Top20 ones, fall, so to will our nation and species.


CLOSE the BLOODY EXCHANGES please for 7 days or 14 days. Get your finger out DRONGO and announce something. ANYTHING …. NOW ….

Kind regards and apologies, a prayers and for those impacted and sick. I hope they find some magic combination that works immediately.

Of course, likely …. totally wrong, its a bad dream.
RBA hopefully takes charge and they ... read the riot act. 

take care

Mark Kahuna.

P.S maybe I rush out and buy mince, forgetting Australia exports 4 times as much as it consumes and we are all becoming cave people ?


----------



## basilio (21 March 2020)

Less is more ?


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

More is less ....


----------



## matty77 (21 March 2020)

NO.

Then all the traders dont have a job all of a sudden.

Then the market opens in 4 weeks, when the Corona is much worse and drops 60% in a day.

Let it trade up and down, not much else you can do.


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

Trading ...

will be non existent in USA equities I strongly suspect .... if you read. It will open .... limit down open again limit down and possibly ... via other factors hit limit down without trading at all.

What will happen ... will occur.
Take a spoon of cement ... toughen up and the RBA whom I respect immensely  for their guidance and actions over the past 38 years, will likely already be planning. Of not ...

welcome to hell !! ALL HELL will break out. Markets will implode and cascade into mayhem that say since Phillip is old enough, 1987..... RBA acted and well markets ignored all efforts for weeks. Instead of cash rates going down as they swamped the market and say 3 month bills falling as well ... they ROSE.

As a very senior trader, of several institutions and some of our largest, I say STUFF traders over having people served cool aid. RBA provides market stability and ... well USA will have a tantrum if its stupid enough to open even the first session ...  

As someone around for all the greatest hits ... of the past 37 years, this one ... has tunes from a few that only fossils remember. Our guidance or knowledge or wisdom scoffed at mostly. 

Time will tell. Why douse yourself in petrol when a mere band aid will work ?


----------



## banco (21 March 2020)

So you are going to turn supposedly liquid assets into iliquid assets? Have you considered what might be the longer term implications of that?

After 14 days lots of people sell as they aren't going to risk getting locked out of selling again.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 March 2020)

amazing the flu can do all this. Your postings 25-28 Jan

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...cations-of-a-sars-coronavirus-outbreak.35169/


----------



## kid hustlr (21 March 2020)

It goes against all I believe in but I actually agree they should close. I'm bias I hold shares in my super and some in my PA but at some point keeping a free market system can actually do more harm than good.


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

I never ever get anything wrong. Trump ,,,,,

Obviously .... things change. I am amused about the threat via lamington eating verses actual threats.
With 25 million people .... 1,000 infected sadly, possibly 30 ? being fatalities .... Lamingtons still deadly but CZV 19 ....  at 3% of 25,000 chances, well ... still a a little over a million to one with containment.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch .... every shadow ... if one were to exit, we would get no where.
Is it logical to say have a decent company unlikely to be hit at 60% its Jan 28 prices ? Or at 50% or say 33% ?

Or on Monday at 20% ?

Pass the lamingtons !! What is the total Chinese infections out of 1.3 billion ? is it 80 k .... is that 1% 0.1% or 0.006%. That is of getting it ...  if sadly 1 in a million were to pass away, well that's ... about 33% of what occurred so 3 chances in a million ... LESS for most others.

Ahh ... pause ... deep breaths and possibly some sanity will prevail.  As to closing clearly non liquid and illogical markets is what central banks DO. It is one of their primary roles !! STABILITY.

Those Lamingtons are delicious.


----------



## wayneL (21 March 2020)

F**" that.

Free markets with reasonable circuit breakers as exists now.

Price Discovery, bro.

Otherwise we descend into fascism... Not the historical accusations but actual fair dinkum real fascism


----------



## frugal.rock (21 March 2020)

Was reminded of this...


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Free markets with reasonable circuit breakers as exists now




NONE exist for Australian markets other than the RBA stepping in and the ASX and SFE being closed via arrangement. The limits you speak of DO NOT EXIST in Australia ... other than in you mind. 

APRA I believe takes the lead from the RBA with ASX which now runs SFE ... ACTS at their pleasure.


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

PS ...

In case you missed it ... USA fell 10% in 8 hours till 4 pm NY time ... and its cases CV19 as of time of close were 16,000 which were 19,600- as the West coast and LA finished their day. so a rise of 20% POST ... close USA let alone ... well a dramatic rise over the week as they step up testing.

By Monday 9 am Sydney time ?  I hope its over, but sadly it is not. 
When I believe USA futures open if allowed ?  A mere 20% rise post close replaced with testing over the weekend and it, well being somewhat higher.

Back We shall see. I have made my case. For all that its worth.

Not fussed either way and whilst ... as always buying too early ...  have lots more ammo for stupidity if its going to be the order of the day and coming weeks.


----------



## wayneL (21 March 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> NONE exist for Australian markets other than the RBA stepping in and the ASX and SFE being closed via arrangement. The limits you speak of DO NOT EXIST in Australia ... other than in you mind.
> 
> APRA I believe takes the lead from the RBA with ASX which now runs SFE ... ACTS at their pleasure.



Lack of true price discovery thus far for the last 20 years has landed us and position we are in.

Let the cards for were they will and we can build a real economy here on out.

Government manipulation via closing markets *etc* will only perpetuate the financial toxicity.


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

Just to correct an error ....
I relied upon someone else ... which is a mistake there have been around 40 total shutdowns of the USA exchanges and ...

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) closed at
the outbreak of World War I. Exchange officials maintained that the threat of
European liquidation of US securities justified a suspension in trading as a
circuit-breaker. However, the exchange remained shuttered for more than four
months, from July 31, 1914 to December 12, 1914.

Other reasons 9/11 was till it opened on the 16th ? ... a few days ... various other things from blizzards to obscure reasons ... to blackouts and once via Presidential order I believe in 1969. Something landed on the moon. Hurricanes ... and storms spring to mind as well. In 2010 ... a flash crash *or have you forgotten* ?

An aside. But ...  well the WW2 thing was actually WW1 ... and the trading event was not stopped for days but MONTHS. USA media even normally very factual sources, not to be relied upon. My mistake. 

Lamingtons still working ?


----------



## frugal.rock (21 March 2020)

Yep, close the markets.
3 months ought to do it.
On second thoughts, 6 months.
Clean out ALL the deadwood...

My portfolio is now ready to sit for 12 months. Stuff everyone else, right?

F.Rock


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

Actually shared my own position ... to some extent.

My self interest is irrelevant. I am not about to sell and will only add if we go lower. NO leverage, no margin and lots of cash.

Honestly would prefer well thought out actions and I am sure the RBA with Treasury and APRA and ASIC watching closely and likely very ahead of any mere mortals thoughts like myself.

I would be surprised, if they did not act prior to opening. Not protecting their interests and to suggest so would be absurd. Their sole focus is stability in times of excessive volatility. Liquidity when there is NONE and in say the case of a currency run or bond run, they step in. No different if they act this time. Suspect they will. Hope they will. I have no desire to see what I suspect, with cause will occur. 

They MAY of course see this differently and likely will. If it takes the USA going down 20% in a day to spark some action and sheer mayhem, so be it.

I take no pleasure in that or desire to see it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

The only reason they'll close the market is if doing so enables someone very big to profit from doing so.

That will, of course, be at the expense of ordinary people who find themselves trapped and then when the market reopens their money's largely gone.

Closing our eyes, or the markets, won't make this problem go away and it won't change the reality that we've got a seriously distorted economy.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 March 2020)

It's the credit markets that are scary. 

And 8 X the size of equity.


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That will, of course, be at the expense of ordinary people who find themselves trapped and then when the market reopens their money's largely gone.




Opinions .. of course vary. 

Please just read the links and research provided and if your seriously suggesting no cure or vaccine or anti viral works right NOW or social distancing does not STOP spread from say 2.5 to 0.25 ... and spread is halted, identified via testing ... and isolation. Well ...  science is not a strong point.

Just use the links and links within links as provided and see if AIDS is a threat still or a vaccine exists for Ebola or Chicken pox or a list of 20 other things.

Clearly in your universe a cure does not exist and its the end of the world forever and what say Singapore did post MERS and SARS and Swine flu ... did not occur.

Take care


----------



## kahuna1 (21 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> It's the credit markets that are scary.




Not really .... other than issues I have with too much corporate debt and home loan debt but at 0.25% interest ?

1987 I think I shared the RBA basically swamped the market with cash. They ignored it .... instead of even the cash rate being 8.5% down from 11% ... on the 20th Oct ...  it went UP ... not down and 3 months went up near 15% from 11.5% despite cash being swamped with liquidity 6 month rates went even higher ... USA of course did the same and the market responded correctly. 

Nothing new .... just this time both markets ignoring the central bank which, actually is new for the USA but its happened here before. I back as always the central bank. Idiotic not to ... when they control liquidity and cash rates and if someone wants to pay 3% above cash, they just go ... ok here is 500 billion more ... of people wont lend to each other ... they just go ... well we lend to you ALL. 

Famous last words being more confident on this. Central banks DON'T really control bond rates, the can influence them and shorter term ones more so. Having a 1 year short term bond at 3% and cash at zero is one hell of a reason to cash and carry the risk. 

Enuf ... back pre 9 am ... Monday with USA numbers and if any action slowing the spread of stupidity .. in financial markets.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Please just read the links and research provided and if your seriously suggesting no cure or vaccine or anti viral works right NOW or social distancing does not STOP spread from say 2.5 to 0.25 ... and spread is halted, identified via testing ... and isolation. Well ... science is not a strong point.
> 
> Just use the links and links within links as provided and see if AIDS is a threat still or a vaccine exists for Ebola or Chicken pox or a list of 20 other things.
> 
> Clearly in your universe a cure does not exist and its the end of the world forever and what say Singapore did post MERS and SARS and Swine flu ... did not occur.




The point is that closing an equities market which runs electronically does absolutely nothing at all to help with any of the points you raise.

If it would somehow help then there would be a valid argument but it won't. As such, it's a classic case of trying to hitch a spurious action to a valid cause in order to get it through.

Closing the ASX will not stop the spread of this virus. Nor will asking ABC TV to display the test pattern help and nor would directing all bus drivers to blast the horn before stopping do any good.




This won't help no.

For the younger readers - this was indeed broadcast for a period each morning and evening back in the days when TV stations closed overnight. It's a real thing yes, anyone over a certain age would have it somewhat etched into their mind. It was for tuning the TV properly back in the days of analogue, a process which involved turning various knobs until the picture looks right. It doesn't kill viruses though.


----------



## sptrawler (21 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The point is that closing an equities market which runs electronically does absolutely nothing at all to help with any of the points you raise.
> 
> If it would somehow help then there would be a valid argument but it won't. As such, it's a classic case of trying to hitch a spurious action to a valid cause in order to get it through.
> 
> ...



Obviously the younger generation are going to get a dose of reality, which may in fact give them a chance to actually prioratise what is important and it isnt a house in central Sydney.lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously the younger generation are going to get a dose of reality




I think there's an important psychological aspect to all this and it's inverse to the medical.

The older someone is, the better they'll cope with the psychological aspect of seeing society fall in a heap despite the bigger risk they're at medically.

Anyone under mid-40's who's always lived in Australia has no memory of a recession. They're in for one hell of a surprise and not in a good way. At least that bit won't be such a shock to the older half of the population.


----------



## sptrawler (21 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think there's an important psychological aspect to all this and it's inverse to the medical.
> 
> The older someone is, the better they'll cope with the psychological aspect of seeing society fall in a heap despite the bigger risk they're at medically.
> 
> Anyone under mid-40's who's always lived in Australia has no memory of a recession. They're in for one hell of a surprise and not in a good way. At least that bit won't be such a shock to the older half of the population.



I dont see anyone putting a brake on the slide, IMO it seems to be a control slide.
Just my opinion.


----------



## qldfrog (22 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> . They're in for one hell of a surprise and not in a good way. At least that bit won't be such a shock to the older half of the population.



Or some of the newer migrants


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

With extreme regret ....

USA markets closed at 4pm NY time and CV19 cases were  16,000-
By days close and west cost they were 19,400-.

Right now 24 hours after this .... reported cases are 24,148* with the West coast still in daylight.
A rise of 50% in 24 hours.
As mentioned .... testing levels were virtually ZERO till very recently as some imbecile believed they were immune.

Where it is by USA futures open tomorrow morning which proceeds our open ... the CV19 total ...

*PLEASE CLOSE the market.*
We close stores, pubs, even beaches and our borders.
If there were tornado's here only the stupid would stand outside.
A cyclone is known to be coming ... only an imbecile does not close and shutter their house.

USA markets rule the world. An act of stupidity led by a dictator who denied CV19, denied testing or action and a medical system the kleptocracy which runs the USA sadly now exposed is NOTHING to do with other economies or financial systems. IF as USA says USA first and repeatedly has taken self interested actions for the very few, the fate, of the many in our case, the AUSTRALIAN financial system swings in the balance.

I hope and wish those infected in the USA get better, hold extreme fears for the 500,000 homeless in the USA and the 1.5 million living out of cars who will be discarded, as usual. Change in an Oligarchy or Kleptocracy with a delusional leader is not possible. At 24,000 cases and population 13 times our size ... testing STILL at less than 20% of where it should be ....  USA even right now is likely DOUBLE the relative numbers of Australia and sadly, the total is assured to rise and rise.

What this has to do with our system and our way of life is virtually nothing. They have a voting system and whilst recently they rejected some trying to get healthcare for all .... in fact Oligarchy leaders and the worlds 3rd richest man ran to block any and all change and it  was revealed he spent 860 million USD or 1.3 billion AUD to do that. If Australia could offer aid to the USA ... we would ... they are our friends on the main despite our PM being hung up on the phone and treated as third class citizens and threatened with tariffs.

With regret we CAN do nothing other than watch the Tornado approach and hope, it is NOT as bad as it will be. Placing blame is an aside normally, but, CDC numbers on testing with 2.5 samples per person up till even last week were, not a good thing.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

Numbers are behind and
*Number of specimens tested*  ... is NOT number of people ...  its 2 if not 3 per person.

*Does the RBA stand along with Scott Morrison like a stunned potato in the face of a tornado ? *

Suggesting there is nothing to be gained by a pause in trading shows an extreme lack of knowledge of  virtually every aspect of markets that is stunning to actually be shared, argued and displayed as a valid choice.

USA catches a cold in financial markets, as they used to say, and its very poor taste to USA this analogy,  because the total and complete opposite is occurring right now.

What happens inside the USA, where this event ends and whilst longer term a vaccine will be found and anti viral s that appear to work will become more widespread in use. In the meantime, USA numbers of reported CV19 will sadly likely surpass Italy. Will they test the 500,000 homeless or families living in cars often bankrupted by the cost of medial care.

Does any of it have a single thing to do with the stability of the Australian financial system ?  Rightly or wrongly Australian elected leaders implemented Medicare a long time ago and free universal healthcare. Both parties supported this along with a way of life we cherish but dont fully appreciate WHAT WE HAVE.

If you get sick, you get care if you loose your job you get help to get a new one that does not stop after 3 months and you end up on the street.

This crisis, whilst not a time to highlight the differences, is an event that exposed and until its passed which will be some time, exposes the hideous nature of the USA Kleptocracy. I dont have to be polite as a politician has to be. Don't have to fawn over the dear leader of the USA as our PM did and does. A dinner at the white house and he is the new lap dog.

We as a nation have 24 hours to choose to stand outside in an event like Cyclone Tracy which hit Darwin or to shelter till it passes. USA I am sure, even if they keep their markets open will emerge eventually.

Sadly we lack any and all political leadership in this nation. RBA has the mandate, and whilst its normally with goverment backing, rate decision and ones like this, they ARE independent. Phillip Lowe the RBA head and various other heads, some of whom I have met at various times NEED irrespective of instruction or guidance ... being independent ... must possibly, even against the governments wishes, take action. I have extreme respect for the RBA and its leaders and its BOARD.

Sadly they may need to take leadership over the desires or wishes of MR Potato head and his instructions via the White House. I know in the GFC, the RBA looked with disbelief at the USA and its actions leading to the event, for 3 minutes they globally went good on you Australia for polices, then ... well did the same again. 

Liquidity was BAD .... prior to this, volatility exceeding even GFC levels and the storm is about to hit. Money markets and along with FX will operate as normal and RBA, as always, will provide liquidity and stability as is their role ALWAYS. As for equities, derivatives and high speed trading there is NO case that they contribute anything other than pain. TO say its a free market or whatever shows a stunning lack of understanding the the RBA and its herculean task at times like this to avert disaster.

Every day .... every single day the RBA changes and effects liquidity to implement its monetary policy. Something some seem to be oblivious totally to their daily role. In times of crisis the actions become more extreme if needed. When the currency goes troppo, to even suggest our currency is NOT a dirty float with serious intervention and at times support, or tapping on the brakes if needed is what THEY DO.

Having say a rout as a high speed computer senses some stock is vulnerable and sends it to 10% of the level it was last week, will and does send waves not just though equities but every single level of the financial system they are attempting to keep afloat.

USA .... with regret and my deepest sympathies for those whom I love dearly from the USA is facing a sobering reality about many things. This will continue till they are testing not 10,000 samples which is 4,000 people a day .... but likely the extent continues to be unknown till they reach our sort of levels of testing in relative terms which is 10,000 people a day .... so 13 times that for the USA and that's 130,000 people or say 300,000 samples and as of the 16th March they appear merely still only to be at 10,000 samples a day .... so double it for today .... they will have no idea for 10 or so days !!

Sobering .... having a system in the USA most ignored and took for granted if one had decent healthcare insurance as say 33% have, reality is 66% DO not and 33% HAVE NONE ....

*This threat is an existential one, a global threat above and way beyond CV19.*

USA itself and NOT CV19 is the threat. CV19 in time will be defeated and a vaccine along with anti virals clearly is on the way.

What the USA infected numbers reach is IRRELEVANT to most activities in Australia, Harsh but true. Our debt to GDP ratio is one of the lowest globally and forgotten and dismissed. Our banks just slashed dividends to shore up capital and then ISSUED and raised 10% more capital to make them even stronger PRIOR to any of these events. We have ZERO Federal debt denominated in foreign currency and whilst the idiot savant computer trading systems love trying to beat our currency down as they have in the past, and nearly 20 years ago, hedge funds attacked and sent it under 50 cents during the Asian Financial crisis when we didn't even have ANY federal net debt.

Either the RBA acts, or it does NOT. Either the Government and Treasury and RBA act together or, they stand outside during a cyclone and KNOWING what will occur and the Contagion of a financial crisis is akin to the spread of this damm Virus.

Why not make tongue kissing mandatory right now to help with CV19 ?

For the love of god, ACT ..... NOW and announce it tonight .... well prior to OPEN.
If USA wishes to keep its Equity and Derivative markets open good on them. The market exists both to provide avenues to raise and exchange ownership and capital. IT IS NON FUNCTIONING .... right at this very point of time and the STORM is YET to hit full force.

As a student as always of the markets, the 1929 fiasco and demise where 90% of value was shed and it took decades to recover spring to mind. I am not suggesting a depression or longer term impacts as a Vaccine will occur, social distancing works and whilst 1929 they did not act fiscally till too lat and NO real action occurred till after the event, this is not the case in 2020. Interest rates were slow to move as well.

We have .... and hopefully some more announcements prior to Monday occur and spending via govt here occurs. Rates are 0.25% and if anything NEGATIVE real rates.

That said, whilst equities were overvalued with NO risk factored in and 10% plus too high a month ago, to be in the USA 30% if not 40% lower and if we open Monday GFC shredding is passed likely is only going to get worse as USA CV19 cases rise and they face cascading stop losses as one market implodes it causes another to implode and panic and taking a 60% loss is better than 100%. Illogical, but having seen 50 or more of these events, its what occurs.

Oil and OPEC is  side issue. At $20- a barrel 70% of all oil production is not profitable. NO new development, no wells to replace old ones, USA high cost fracking at break even of $60- and Tar sands the same, well .... in 2 years, whilst abundant supply for 100 years via new technology and awful things allowed such as dirty Tar sands, the price rises, and well at $100- every spigot will open and correct.

Can I  say with any confidence if say we see, a sharp 50% loss from here to say 33% of current highs on equities, as illogical as it is, even for a brief instant in time ... weeks ... that many of our companies will cease to exist totally and sold for pennies, only to wake up in say 6 weeks from this delusional fog and CV19 cases being reported close to ZERO ... a vaccine well on its way, not 3 Anti Virals that work but 10 that seem to ...

Its a bit late to close the windows and shutter them for a cyclone  Tracy event like the one that hit Darwin 12 hours after it and the bloody house itself is gone.

I am merely a student despite my years in the markets. Each event has its own causes, likely cures and at times needed central action.

It will be, what it will be.
I ask merely with good cause to TAKE ACTION ... prior to the event.
One could actually see what is going to occur PRIOR to our markets even opening as the USA equity derivatives open 40 minutes I think prior to ours.

If as I sadly suspect, the likely ... at this point ...  opening does NOT occur, the opening price is Minus 5% and NO real trading occurs, sadly,  the 13% next limit will I suspect be tested again without trading and then the 20% limit depending on where the CV19 case numbers are in the USA. Likely and with extreme remorse and sympathy and regret, mixed with disgust .... they are above 30,000 Morrow verses 16,000 prior to when the USA market was last open.

*PLEASE JUST HIT THE PAUSE and stop trading for 14 days. *


----------



## rederob (22 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> This won't help no.
> 
> For the younger readers - this was indeed broadcast for a period each morning and evening back in the days when TV stations closed overnight. It's a real thing yes, anyone over a certain age would have it somewhat etched into their mind. It was for tuning the TV properly back in the days of analogue, a process which involved turning various knobs until the picture looks right. It doesn't kill viruses though.



How come your ABC test pattern was in colour?
Ours was in black and white!


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

Note PM fathead announced his package.

With business hit by bush-fires ... NONE .... NOT one single one .... ZERO in 3 months have got a cent from promised govt support and 17 page application ....

As I walked for an hour and more USA west coast numbers came in ... the USA total .... rose by another 10% ....  to 25.632- right now.


Whilst positive the spending, the practical side is TOTAL BS and Gridlock for even the fire events.

Still how to watch 18 billion spending be ignored .... is to OPEN markets tomorrow which MAY open higher here ... glances at the USA down ... will when Asia opens .... and then USA opens 12 hours latter make the use of a BB gun to stop a Rhino  seem apt.

OF course if your 0ld , you may of course look at the ABC test page as seems to amuse some. Reading the same book over and over again having forgotten the start and plot also works. Re-gift the same present every birthday and its forever new.


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

Test pattern gone ////

Dear leader speaks ...


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

In his 2 hour 40 minute conference ..... TODAY ...

Dear leader ... of the world ...


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

Do we really want our equity levels tied to ...

This ... IDIOT who fired the whole pandemic team in 2018 and gave himself a score of 10/10 at 1,600 cases identified and its 25,000 plus and testing is at best 20% of the level it needs to be ?





CLOSE the equity side and derivatives,

Sure likely we OPEN up after the stimulus .... for 1 hour ? Or 2 ? or 12 hours till the USA hits its next limit down event .

Watch the above and decide.
Factual and sadly so.

Thankfully our govt WAS and is clearly more prepared. It will mater for ZERO in the total panic that is about to hit USA markets with good cause. An infection rate sadly which will rival Italy cannot be ruled out and that's ... well ...  many times above current levels.

I wish NOT to spread fear, I wish it was NOT so. For my many friends int he USA and its people.


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

MEdia and Murdoch press here ...

PARROTED USA views .... dismissive and Sky news ,, telegraph and Australian papers. ... main source of news for many ....

Watch with NO food in your mouth the 180 degree turnaround they do. END OF THE WORLD NOW ... is the message.



Favorite is the cross eyed stupid judge and then its safe to fly woman ... no crowds and "its pretty much dead". Sad ... but so so true ... DEAD ...  in a macabre way.

North Korea media which has zero factual content .. is better than the USA ... Take the time and watch. PLEASE ....

*CLOSE THE MARKETS .... we are married to an imbecile until we part ways and TAKE measures to protect OUR nation.*


----------



## Trendnomics (22 March 2020)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...cations-of-a-sars-coronavirus-outbreak.35169/



kahuna1 said:


> Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ?
> 
> Fear fear and more fear.
> 
> ...






You have zero credibility on this matter - *ignored*.


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

Strange ... the worlds top 10 fund manager on the 2nd March ..., about 5 weeks after my own view shared ... and MINE had changed, MORE DATA ... it changed ... was shall we say aware of the issue, as was I, more concerned ... as was I  ... verses 25th January. 

If I listened to your utterings warnings and rants ... about the end of the world ... I never would invest in anything at any time. As for your mechanical trading systems ... boy ... let me sell you my
 secret system for 50k ? 

Your and your credibility is as always zero. 
I sadly quote experts today NOT my own view .... Experts ... and on the 25th January .... even the 2nd March ... the market was barely moved. Quite different today. NOPE ... nothing changed. Is your system working ? Possibly if you send another 50k for the latest version it will work ? 

What I thought about the latest end of the world utterings ... on the 25th Jan, for once. Wrong ... admitted and well its not really the end of the world. It will pass. Of course I could be wrong. Admitted and accepted. If it does ... so be it. 

As you say my credibility zero .... please share your expertise on anything.  My view never changed ... actions never changed and what I thought as evidence was presented, did not change over time, is well just as stupid as those using trading systems I see you paid a lot of money for.

You must live in a bubble to suggest I am similar to your .... infallibility and foresight.


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

Might be strange if this was ... my view on the 2nd March ... identical to this ....

_In relation to the spreading virus it appears too early to forecast sensibly the primary and derivative (supply chain, counterparty, psychological, behavioural ,political, centralbank, fiscaletc) economic implications (including incidence, severity and duration).

Political risks and uncertainty also elevated in February, contributing to falls in previously strong equity prices. At month end , interest rates reached even lower record levels. Medium and longer term economic implications of the virus and the other factors on investment, inflation, markets etc might be different to short term implications.
_
This is of course a top line 50th out of 10,000 fund mangers view  over the last decade.

It would be unfair ... but such is life, that one of the largest fund managers a few days  after this issued ... the following from their CIO ... the guy who also makes decisions ....

On the 6th March
*US stocks are not expensive, despite their stretched valuations. In fact, it's all just a matter of "gravity" or the historically low interest rate environment
*
"A lot of people are making comments that markets are very, very expensive and stocks are expensive,"

NAMELESS CIO fund manger ....  argued investors shouldn't rely on central banks to predict an economic crash.

"All the central banks missed it last time - and that's their full-time job," he said.

"So have some caution. We are always looking for downside risk; we want to try and get a very balanced view of what's going on in this world that none of us have ever seen before; this low interest rate world."

I do wonder since I have mentioned my respect for one ... and not so much for the latter on this site ... .

Would it be fair to call one of the largest asset managers in Australia with an impressive track record an imbecile ? Because he was ... even at that date the 6th March sprouting Trumpish views  ?

I am a big boy and whilst ... I cared NOT to share any view on this site for 6 weeks, due to ... well ... trolls ... imbeciles and others. I am not disappointed yet again .... so THANKS.

It does not mean my view did not change as time went on.

Still for some, the losses their very expensive trading system has racked up of late ... and their perverse use of faith ... and tools is amusing. please dont take out your lack of skill on me, nor buying the 50k trading system that does not work.
I suggest chanting at your screen may make your secret system work better. 

Take care


----------



## rederob (22 March 2020)

I actually agree with the idea of closing markets, but for much longer - minimum 6 weeks - and *with all equity markets participating*.
Markets for physical delivery are different matter.
My rationale was simple.  Equity markets should be about investing, not short-term trading.  We have since  turned equity markets into a sick game of monopoly that also combines snakes and ladders with roulette.
The problem we have is, that as with COVID-19, there is no global leadership.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 March 2020)

rederob said:


> I actually agree with the idea of closing markets, but for much longer - minimum 6 weeks - and *with all equity markets participating*.



I'd agree subject to things like the oil and gold price being frozen at the same time.

Reason = it's the little guy who'll be trading OOO or GOLD, it's not Warren Buffet or some investment bank doing that and it seems rather unreasonable to effectively lock someone into a position whilst the underlying market carries on.

If the markets are actually shut and it's done in a manner which advantages any group or country then the inevitable transfer of wealth from the masses to the rich resulting from that will lend a fair bit of credibility to conspiracy theories about the whole thing.


----------



## rederob (22 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Reason = it's the little guy who'll be trading OOO or GOLD, it's not Warren Buffet or some investment bank doing that and it seems rather unreasonable to effectively lock someone into a position whilst the underlying market carries on.



They are part of the equity markets @Smurf1976 and while there are some types that don't fit a company structure, they were not part of what I was considering.
I meant instead  those markets which relate to physical delivery requirements relating to contracts such as the many commodity futures.


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

Hmmm

listened to the news. Always a mistake.Even the PM saying or implying a lock-down will be 4 months if not more .... astounding.
USA is NOT testing people and in fact has run out of tests and asks people NOT to get tested ... REALLY ?


Obviously end of the world ... when the leader of USA task force actually says you need not get tested even if your sick. WTF ? They have run out of tests.

All non essentials in OZ closed tomorrow so ... unless the stock exchange is something other than the volatility machine it is at present, that means them. Likely NOT ... given some other stupidity being dosed out liberally.

This will pass, eventually ... via a pause and isolation, spread will reduce and hopefully to sporadic levels as a vaccine is somewhere found along with one or many more anti virals. I missed that from our PM totally and his potato head speech.

I am still agog at USA ..., sorry we have no tests ... even of your sick ... only for healthcare workers and USA to be renamed New Sudan or Somalia
I am sure of markets open ... they will remain calm as Posiden adventure the movie. Likely Rambo will be unleashed in a bad mood and make it all better ?

Maybe someone can lend the USA some tests, but then again China is the target of USA bile ....

Astounding times. Sad, but astounding.

It goes without saying I thought identifying if someone was infected, even isolated and if they HAD not infected others say family with them was a good thing ? Not the USA .... for now.

Sad ... 
I am still unclear if the close our markets and given the tone of the PM Potato head speech ... will they release likely mayhem ? Panic and the rest ? Or pause ?

Unclear. USA reported cases will ... be less factual than even the Chinese numbers initially for openly admitted reasons.

If not tested and your wife and 3 kids not infected, does that in the USA impart some immunity because Trumps yes person said it out loud ? Whilst not oblivious to the risks well aware of the WAYS to limit spread and NOT about to break them and risk myself or others, some .... well ... concern is there. 

If I was in the USA and heard that ? The only way to stop the spread is to isolate and TEST and if infected ... isolate Infected and non infected. 

I must have heard a bad dream and imagined the person next to Trump the very short guy say that .... out loud.


----------



## IFocus (22 March 2020)

Kahuna always respect your take on things but the markets must remain open its the only a valuation can be made.

Also it puts pressure on the likes of Trump etc when they fail to react.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Kahuna always respect your take on things but the markets must remain open its the only a valuation can be made.



I see some other issues with any shut down too:

1. It sends a very clear message to the public that there's a serious financial problem. Expect a run on physical cash at the banks if the public perceives that things are in peril financially beyond simply seeing share and oil prices decline etc. Actually shutting the market would send a message that things are stuffed.

2. Changing the rules in the middle of the game reduces future confidence. It adds a new layer of risk to the concept of owning shares.


----------



## kahuna1 (22 March 2020)

Astounding ... disturbing ... alarming dogs breakfast press announcement.

Why open ? The tornado from  the USA when you have their supposed head going DON'T get tested we dont have enough tests, and numbers by open even with this astounding ... comment ... likely 40,000 there verses 16,000 on Friday close.

I likely and possibly ... not surprisingly ... have everything wrong on estimating a vaccine in the 4-9 month range and down closer to the 6 month region as opposed to initial 9 months expected. A view I might add, not my own but one expressed by 5 different EU nations. To have our PM ... doubling that ... hmm.

It contradicts peak science bodies and their up to date live announcements and estimates. Link already given.

This to one side ....

Markets ... RBA will decide or so it now appears NOT decide. A failing sadly ... one I suspect has ZERO upside and potentially massive downside, not just a one day 20% hit ... a cascading imploding effect on the fabric of many fragile economic relationships and interdependence not obvious until one thing crumbles and another seemingly unrelated thing tumbles and another is forced to act and on and on we go.

Announcement of relaxing reporting rules and essentially no one goes broke and directors responsibilities relaxed during the crisis is identical to EU nations already announced actions mid last week. I would again point out the USA fell 10% in 8 hours from its peak ... to close on its low ... despite this.   Whilst good and positive, a week would be too short to digest what has just occurred.   Casinos closed ... well at a minimum their stocks should be asking for suspension .... no income coming in, a fair amount of debt and stuff going out. Who owns the debt ? Who is at risk ?

I am merely touching on the very tip of the iceberg and when I thought, maybe we isolate for 14 to 21 days and whilst not IMMUNE ... not until a vaccine the spread rate would drop, to have it implied its 4 months likely longer 6 and even 12 mentioned  ... contradicts virtually every other nations advice. YES for now contain identify and test test test ... flatten the bloody curve and socially isolate and it WORKS.

This was NOT the message I got from the PM. Not by a long shot. Sure ... end result is the same but by reading the riot act, which yes is needed to stop spread, but instead of if we DONT act stupidly ... in 2-4 weeks ... those infected identified and isolated and some normalcy comes back, all be it with social distancing, the message given was .... 4 months 6, 12   ... possibly longer and what the hell happens to lenders to Crown casino or Star in the meantime ?

Hence why ... with respect ... we need to *pause ALL TRADING *BY ourselves.

USA and its message of ... we have run out of tests, you dont need to get tested ... and coupled with infections being more than double as of close of Friday and NOT small numbers ... ones even for the USA size that, well ... are already chilling.

Scientists via the links provided know incubation mean time is 5.5 says but some are not shown via testing for 12.5 days. Family with one infected and say 3 kids really could be pass the buck for 2 months IF NOT TESTED and that's the USA response for now ? You dont need it ?

I wish NOT to be astounded or alarming, but ... have they lost their mind ? USA.

Have the Australian goverment and this dogs breakfast even thought WHAT the hell happens closing down a few bushiness with billion in debt does ? OR can do ? Cascade that through to contagion and well we have a reason to be alarmed. Sure if the announced at the same time we support and will 100% back these not tiny things ... which did not occur, maybe they might have been a lot more detail rather than something that was put in place without thought... well ... filling in the missing pieces.

The case for a pause ... and I am sue the govt will step in to support say Qantas and the casino's but ... until well ... set out, as WAS the case for Airlines was to some extent, to willy nilly close things I do understand. It would help ... if what support they GET in the interim was also spelt out in BIG LETTERS.

Too hard. Tomorrow a dogs breakfast for all ....

I know our PM denies climate science and took a lump of coal into parliament. Not sure if his version of faith is akin to USA VP Pence .. who denies all science. Clearly PM message contradicted his own SCIENCE guy and his message given on Friday on timelines and doubled it.' One is a doctor ... one is ... a well .... whatever ...

I think one can safely say beyond science ... PM has NO idea about business or markets or banks .... ZERO ...

Golly .. will that help the ASX ?

Paul Keating at least on his Banana republic speech on 14th May 1986 had some idea of what he was doing and saying. Absent ... totally today.


----------



## basilio (22 March 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> *Too hard. Tomorrow a dogs breakfast for all *....




That's the money shot. Totally agree. It will be very hard to find buyers at anything except bottom feeder prices. 

Those with Balls of Steel should set up buy bids at 15% plus  discounts to current prices on Banks and other blue chip stocks.  I reckon the early sales will test these levels.  So buy in haste - and then wait for axe.

The fact is we have not even started this journey. We haven't seen a million plus people out of work. We havn't heard the screams of frustration from desperate  broke people  attempting to deal with  a hopelessly overloaded Centrelink.

We havn't had nightly news stories of queues of small business owners  broken and bankrupted.

The hospitals aren't filled with screaming relatives, doctors and staff all unable to handle an ever increasing stream of sickness and death.

Parents haven't had to face stroppy  kids and teenagers demanding to be let out to chase and catch the various interests they have cultivated _which-they-really-don't-want-their -stuffy-parents-to-know -about.
_
Perhaps Kahuna does carry on a bit. Doesn't change the validity of his concerns IMV.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Perhaps Kahuna does carry on a bit. Doesn't change the validity of his concerns IMV.




There are very serious problems, no question about that, but pausing the trading of shares won't solve them in the slightest.

With respect it looks like a classic case of hitching an unrelated agenda to an otherwise valid cause.

I could equally say that because of the virus we all need to cook a BBQ tomorrow and all wattle trees must be cut down by not later than Tuesday afternoon. It won't help in the slightest of course but nor will closing the ASX. It's a human virus, not a computer virus.

Anyone who does not wish to participate in the market can easily avoid doing so with the market remaining fully operational. There's no compulsion for anyone to invest in it.


----------



## aus_trader (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's a human virus, not a computer virus.



Smurf, you nailed it with this one comment 
If the exchange was infected or hacked, I understand the closing of the markets till the issue is resolved.

Kahuna contradicts himself saying people need to set Stop Losses etc. How are the stop losses going to be executed if the markets are closed ? 

On the opposite side of the universe, if there is some miracle cure or a vaccine gets developed in the next 14 days the markets are likely to have the biggest rallies we have seen in a long time. Except none of us will be trading it's upside since Kahuna has shut the market


----------



## kahuna1 (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There are very serious problems, no question about that, but pausing the trading of shares won't solve them in the slightest.




Nope .... the fact that you have, nor do I, and I have somewhat more idea, for me to admit ... I have no idea of the implications of what the Potato Head just announced ... the ripple effect .... and suggesting even for second ... opening a market who has similar total lack of any real idea will solve ... help or aid the situation ....

Yes of course it will NOT solve the situation ... *I never suggested it.*

Are you awake ?

It could very well SAVE the situation and *IT WILL cause more harm than good opening at this point* *in time.*


PAUSE and take a deep breath. Then take another and another.

It will be ... what it will be ....

*38,211 USA cases as of 5.37 am* and a few hours PRIOR to USA derivatives opening.

TWO out of three dashboards .... on the USA total ...* HAVE STOPPED UPDATING* ...  about 7,000 cases ago. Possibly a technical glitch ... likely NOT. Bloomberg and Johns Hopkins ... trackers... NO longer seem to function.

DEAR LEADER Trump..... was pushing for more powers and that anti aircraft gun has a lot of political and media it needs to take care of under advice of Kim Ill Jung on what works.

The tune from Apocalypse now ... is playing very loudly ...



Enjoy the movie ... Market, if opened, will be more amusing. 

Must run ... knocks at the door at 5.45 am ... men with rubber hoses ?
Hello .... thud ... have no fear the Chihuahua has latched onto his groin and she has just snacked. Funny the shrill scream he. or I should say she, is now emitting ... they both are girls now.  There goes the second, now a new she-male ... and the third now neutered.

Whoops they just wanted to read the bible !!


----------



## kahuna1 (23 March 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> *38,211 USA cases as of 5.37 am* and a few hours PRIOR to USA derivatives opening.




*38,936- cases at 6.37 am* and still many hours till end of day West coast USA where its 12.45 PM just after lunch.

Two of the main tracking sites for unknown reasons STOPPED working.
Google search even does not list them any longer. Nor the site I prefer. It comes up using other search engines as either number one or two. It is MIA. Several other sites now working taking data from actual state sites in the USA .... despite this ... effort

Have a total tested to date USA and whilst, a massive improvement ... as mentioned test kits and CDC comments scary. Still at about 10% only of those needed to be tested and a MID of most EU nations tested and our own. That tests are in short supply and the head of the CDC is asking NOT to get tested unless your sick it .. is .. what it is .... USA USA USA .... for your enjoyment the following is ... our president speaking. Soothing the press ...



Our PM just had a smirk on his face ... the whole time.

Oh to be a peasant !!

Australia with a mere 25 million has done MORE CV19 tests than the USA and its 13 times the size as of right NOW. Sadly ... the total and issue is not one that needs explaining for the USA and likely outcome. A poll of media users found a mere 38% of Fox news viewers were concerned about the virus.


----------



## kahuna1 (23 March 2020)

How amusing ....

Site by site ... the numbers DROP magically by 7-8.000 USA cases.
What was 38,936 cases on 4 different sites and HOUR ago  .... in the USA ... is 32,346 cases .... REALLY ..... so NO new cases in 12 hours.

I must lend them my little dog.

LMFAO ... this is absurd USA i action. Since they stripped it off individual state reporting ... quite amusing the message is OUT ... 

Ssshhhh .... its defeated again.


----------



## rederob (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There are very serious problems, no question about that, but pausing the trading of shares won't solve them in the slightest.
> 
> With respect it looks like a classic case of hitching an unrelated agenda to an otherwise valid cause.
> 
> ...



It is true that closing the stock exchange won't cure COVID-19.
I thought long and hard before posting why I believed a very long closure was necessary.
My view is that markets will contribute unnecessarily to the pervading doom and gloom.  We who are in the market can instead put our thoughts to more pressing matters and have one less thing to worry about for a few months.
Most importantly I reached the conclusion that the net effect of remaining open will not be much different to having it closed and re-opening in 6 weeks time - or longer.  On the other hand, the millions of mum & dad investors that are presently rattled by what is happening are likely to make many poor trading decisions, and be scalped by market professionals.
That will destroy the mental health of many, along with their ability to recover what are likely to already be heavy losses.


----------



## kahuna1 (23 March 2020)

Really .... are they kidding ?

Rhode Island ... tiny state ... their state numbers, WHAT used to feed into data until 90 mins ago.
83 cases as of NOW ...
https://health.ri.gov/data/covid-19/

SOURCE data .... FACTUAL ...
then I go to the NEW BS versions of trackers ...
Bloomberg .... well

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-united-states-coronavirus-outbreak/

66 cases ...

Bigger states .... BIGGER BS.
Who do you believe ? NO cases in 12 hours in the USA ?
Source data ... factual individual states ?

Clearly the sites running a service over the last 2 hours one by one ... have been read the riot act in the USA. National interest ?

Whatever. Sad but obvious ....



And Bloomberg ....




Tra la la la ...

Trump strikes again ... its all fake from whatever perspective you wish to be.
Basically the count dropped 20% in 50 minutes ....  83 real is 66 NOW .... its even exact across each state ... I  NOW check .... magic 20% drop ... source FACTUAL data times 80% and *NEW improved TRUMP data*.

Pity they need to test say 1 million in the USA ...to have any idea CV19 totals and have only tested 211k or done 211k tests. Some like doctors and nurses done I suspect more than once.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 March 2020)

rederob said:


> It is true that closing the stock exchange won't cure COVID-19.
> I thought long and hard before posting why I believed a very long closure was necessary.
> My view is that markets will contribute unnecessarily to the pervading doom and gloom.  We who are in the market can instead put our thoughts to more pressing matters and have one less thing to worry about for a few months.
> Most importantly I reached the conclusion that the net effect of remaining open will not be much different to having it closed and re-opening in 6 weeks time - or longer.  On the other hand, the millions of mum & dad investors that are presently rattled by what is happening are likely to make many poor trading decisions, and be scalped by market professionals.
> That will destroy the mental health of many, along with their ability to recover what are likely to already be heavy losses.




I think you might be right, but if the market is closed, for how long ?

I don't think it should open again untill the news is better and the virus has been contained, otherwise it will just be more of the same. That could be months away.

So if they shut the market they would have to be prepared for it to be shut for quite a long time.


----------



## rederob (23 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think you might be right, but if the market is closed, for how long ?
> 
> I don't think it should open again untill the news is better and the virus has been contained, otherwise it will just be more of the same. That could be months away.
> 
> So if they shut the market they would have to be prepared for it to be shut for quite a long time.



It took Wuhan 2 months to turnaround their situation.
Open the markets again once the curve is actually flat *AND *we are testing on a massive scale.  Until then the chance of a quick start to a second wave in the midst of our winter would be strong.


----------



## kahuna1 (23 March 2020)

USA futures ...
DID not open LOCKED limit 5% down.

They took a mere 3 mins 53 seconds due to the ABOVE I suspect tinkering with NUMBERS which is ... what it is.

They now are LOCKED 5% DOWN .... FOR NOW ... 
whilst fluid and news may change things, I suspect they DO not rise. 

Not till the limit is expanded to 13% and since I suspect many in America were watching as numbers got fudged ... in real time, possibly to not have the population panic, then again 38% of FOX news people are not even at all concerned and that the most popular news source ...  this is about the Keptocracy and Oligarchy people rather than the masses.

Whilst I may disagree as is my right with PM Potato head here and his 6-12 month timeline and whilst reading the riot act to get idiots to STAY isolated until ... a bloody vaccine happens and this will be a doosey on the ASX .... if they are stupid enuf to open after that 253 seconds to loose 5% so 15% in a straight line ... for the USA side .... 

Only time will tell.
Its only money.
Stay safe ... tell someone you love them ... 
Call someone isolated and needing a call.

The rest will be what it will be.
Its not the end of the world ....

YET ... we Humans are actually pretty smart and hope is around the corner

Take care
Mark K


----------



## satanoperca (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I see some other issues with any shut down too:
> 
> 1. It sends a very clear message to the public that there's a serious financial problem. Expect a run on physical cash at the banks if the public perceives that things are in peril financially beyond simply seeing share and oil prices decline etc. Actually shutting the market would send a message that things are stuffed.




I think there is a very real possibility there will be a run on banks if the TP debacle is anything to go back which will in turn have the govnuts put a withdraw brake on very fast, which will in turn cause even more panic and instability.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I think there is a very real possibility there will be a run on banks if the TP debacle is anything to go back which will in turn have the govnuts put a withdraw brake on very fast, which will in turn cause even more panic and instability.




Unfortunately that is a possibility. I think the way out will be overwhelming government financial support of  of businesses and people out of work.

If we think about about it the billions of dollars currently sitting as bank deposits represents accumulated assets. Its great to have them but really not strictly necessary for day to day living.  It could be useful for governments to decree that banks don't give out more than a certain  percentage of deposits  to ensure the viability of the system. Meanwhile they continue to guarantee the deposits up to the current  level  ($250k) to give long term security to depositers

What people and businesses need on a day to day basis is sufficient funds to pay their bills, rent and food. The decision to effectively double the  New start allowance goes a good way to that point. One important factor will be the situation of two income families which is now most people. I hope both partners are covered with this decision.


----------



## kahuna1 (23 March 2020)

As I said ... and still say ... this will pass.

USA futures actually no longer locked limit down. Then again ... a lot of caveats around USA reporting on virus numbers which is the total opposite to the riot act being read here.

To see our market open ... and take your pick at what stocks were 10% down top 50 ones and some 15% and a few even 20% DOWN. These are TOP ASX 50 ones and most of course .... half the recent highs.

Take care ... it is what it is. Read books for 3 months then decide.
Not sure, still if it was a good idea to open.

CWN and SGR the casinos in trading halt and they were already half priced.

Where to from here is the question.

Lots of very cheap shares for the brave, or likely ... stupid if this plays out for the 6-12 months as suggested. Still adding and slowly slowly. 

Have fun


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

rederob said:


> It is true that closing the stock exchange won't cure COVID-19.
> I thought long and hard before posting why I believed a very long closure was necessary.



I do see the point you are making there. 

On the other hand I also see a point about changing the rules during the game and so on.

If someone's been accumulating cash and intending to put it into the market whenever the next major downturn occurs or they switched their funds to a non-shares option or whatever then it seems rather unreasonable to change the rules half way through the game. 

If the ASX is to be closed under given circumstances then what those circumstances are should be clearly stated prior to such a situation arising.

Also, all such markets should be closed at the same moment - so if the ASX shuts right now, and remains shut for a month, then a month from now the price of oil, gold, silver, all currencies etc remains at current levels. Physical trade continues for physical delivery but the price is locked globally for the duration.


----------



## kahuna1 (23 March 2020)

Just to finish ...

Market closed not good here. Better than expected in some ways.
USA fed came out and said basically its MONEY for anyone and everyone. UNLIMITED.

I did watch Trumps 1 hr 34 min ramble.
If anything, I hold grave concern for his delusions as he blamed everyone else and ... well USA in some states is still not testing ... not isolating and one called Texas has 29 million people.

Not testing and actually saying they will not due to lack of capacity and levels at sub 20% of any G20 nation that is developed, is .... concerning if not terrifying.

This will not be over tomorrow ... for the USA ... I wish the best, but a delusional leader who spoke for 14 minutes about the billions he could have made, 4 mins about his wife and attacked the press and so on ... ROME is alight .... burning and chest thumping and hot air sadly dont change CV19 or science. 

Texas has at most 150 ventilators and USA the lowest ratio of hospital beds per population of any developed nation.

Spending the vast majority patting himself and ME ME ME ... still no package and the USA people 70% have less than $400- for an emergency, their need ... is DIRE. EXTREME ...

The package the Republican senate tried to pass gave massive tax cuts to the rich, support to business and NOT a hell of a lot to the people. It was rightly rejected even in these dire times. The second one gave HALF the support if you were low income than someone on middle income GOT .... again ... rejected.

Meanwhile .... isolation message in the USA is well MIXED and ... testing whilst up a lot, WE at 8% the size have done MORE tests in total.

Till USA has tested over a million ... or more given the slow response, and isolates ... distances and supports, the ... well ... in dire trouble.

Did I need to hear how Trump believe how the American people love and respect his wife, Ivanka .... whoops  Mikaninannan .... for 3 minutes during what was a speech I expected to see white froth in the corners of his mouth.

In short ... unless orange fake tan works .... against a virus, sadly the road in coming weeks is going to be tough. That they clearly .... clearly buggered the numbers early our time today on reporting cases ... I shared the screed shots and one does not go from 39,000 reported infections to 31,000 in 30 minutes ...

Ahhh

As for VP Mike Pence ... his only contribution was prayers and a glassy look on his face.

Whilst not a fan of PM Morrison but understanding his need to read the riot act to stop the spread ,,,, and his absurd 12 months contradicting his best scientist by a factor of 2 .... that's better than the USA version of it with 3 TIMES as many identified per million infected as Australian ... and having tested a mere 25% of people. AND ITS RUNNING low ... for now on capacity to test. 

Think about that .... will the virus pause as ...  they test the other 75% ? Not spread .... requiring even more testing to halt the spread ? All while the Dictator keeps people waiting for an hour and half then rambles ... for another 90 minutes.

USA ... may go up ... tonight ... however ... this virus doesn't really care for hot air. ISOLATE ... IDENTIFY and TREAT .... 

NONE of it ... is working there. Whilst they may choose NOT to report any new cases or halve them ... I am not sure a virus has feelings ... much like the current president of the USA.

I to be honest am astounded, upset and terrified by this person and his leadership. Wait 2 weeks to pass judgement and no amount of whiteout will work.

Chilling. Meanwhile ... ME ME ME ME ME 147 times ... I I I I over and over ...


----------



## Triple B (23 March 2020)

Should we be expecting a halt on short selling soon?


----------



## aus_trader (24 March 2020)

Triple B said:


> Should we be expecting a halt on short selling soon?



Possibly, if it continues south. It happened during the depths of GFC.


----------



## rederob (24 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I do see the point you are making there.
> 
> On the other hand I also see a point about changing the rules during the game and so on.
> 
> ...



The markets make no pretense in being "fair," as anyone would know when confronted with a trading halt  to their planned equity trade.  A shutdown would just be at a more massive scale.
In relation to physical commodities, these are actively being bought and sold external to markets so their prices will be changing moment to moment around the globe independent from markets.  
I am on the fence in relation to "futures" markets for physicals as these typically only affect producers and their direct consumers (as in *companies *who rely on their products, rather than individuals), plus a small coterie of professional traders who add nothing to the value chain.


----------



## kahuna1 (24 March 2020)

Triple B said:


> Should we be expecting a halt on short selling soon?




Unknown ....  Since I and everyone has been totally wrong about virtually every aspect of this on markets and the actions they may have taken ... should have taken .... your call is as good as mine.

I give up when ... these are at best unusual times and unprecedented ones and they try and open a market when 2 of the ASX top 50 companies just had their operations destroyed by govt decree. Of course common sense ... but ... what bid do you put on a casino down already 60% .... NOW .... ? They have debts and obligations and staff ... or did have staff ... and NO income . Qantas got 750 million package and ... what did they get ? 

Such is life. It will pass.
Stay safe and tell someone you love them.
Watch Mad Max the whole series and Outbreak if your annoyed at being isolated.

Take care


----------



## barney (24 March 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> ISOLATE, IDENTIFY and TREAT




That's it in a nut shell Kahuna  ….. 

IF they are able to utilise the "Fast Test" imported from China effectively ….  ISOLATE and IDENTIFY could then be juxtaposed to IDENTIFY and ISOLATE which would speed the process exponentially and probably save a lot of lives, and the Economy $Billions


----------



## kahuna1 (24 March 2020)

Whilst I am NO expert ... I do listen to them. NOT contradict them ....

Trump ... I am horrified by actions to date, TERRIFIED at what they have done to date and devastated along with angry what they have DONE to their people. Whilst our closest mates NZ ... by far ... are in ultra lockdown mode .... USA at best is patchy right NOW.

Testing a joke ...

and this ... NOW ..ANNOUNCEMENT ..... instead of instilling areal sense of FEAR ... to CHANGE habits and that takes  time ...

*W: (US) President Trump: America will be open for business sooner than 3-4 months; Will decide on timing and how we will reopen after 15 day period; won't let coronavirus turn into long lasting problem; will announce some dateline in near future*

I am so sad for those Yanks we all love to poke fun at .... SO SO SO sad the Oligarchy and Kleptocracy the USA has become. 

I wish this delusional sociopath was NOT there .... and USA did have some magic resistance to the virus. NOT reporting the numbers ... NOT testing ... and DOWNPLAYING the need and it will be OVER in 2 weeks ... 

I can only hope for a magic cure and be resigned they report NO new cases whilst ... Hospitals are overwhelmed and the 80% who DON'T matter pay the price. With the lowest amount of hospital beds per 1,000 people they are the LEAST able to deal with even a mild outbreak ....

YES a vaccine will be found .... I have little doubt.
Anti virals that WORK and dumb it down if you get it ... will be found. 
I have HOPE ... but NOT delusional hope in the interim between Vaccine and TODAY.

DELUSIONAL ... homicidal maniac ... and his popularity supposedly is going up as even questionable numbers of infected and testing at ... 5% of Australia ,,,, 

Every Genocidal maniac from history looks sane right now compared to this imbecile.


----------



## aus_trader (25 March 2020)

Cheer up, you'll be glad you didn't lock up Mr. Market tomorrow. A big rally is to be expected based on overnight US trading thanks to FED injection:




Hopefully it flows onto the company you are so worried about, which is obviously not Qantas since it's rescue package didn't please you.


----------



## barney (25 March 2020)

aus_trader said:


> A big rally is to be expected based on overnight US trading thanks to FED injection




Burning the midnight+ oil there Aus …… Don't forget to get some sleep


----------



## aus_trader (25 March 2020)

barney said:


> Burning the midnight+ oil there Aus …… Don't forget to get some sleep



Yes, been up late 
You are right, need to sleep a bit more for the sake of health 

At the end of the day, markets will stay open, whether you stay late to monitor what's happening around the world or not... unless Kahuna hijacks it


----------



## frugal.rock (13 July 2022)

Just going over some stuff, and would be nice to have Mr Mark Kahuna back amongst us.


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Just going over some stuff, and would be nice to have Mr Mark Kahuna back amongst us.



He's on tw@tter and still preoccupied with the beer bug


----------



## frugal.rock (6 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> He's on tw@tter and still preoccupied with the beer bug



Don't do twatter, farcebook, instascam etc but thanks for letting us know.
Others might be interested.
Cheers


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Don't do twatter, farcebook, instascam etc



Wise!


----------



## aus_trader (6 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> Wise!



I did a bit of social media browsing a while back, mainly around stocks and investing.

Agree @wayneL and @frugal.rock it's very distracting with conflicting view from different sources. It's a good thing that I don't have any time to waste nowadays, every minute is precious.


----------

