# WBC - Westpac Banking Corporation



## PLJ50L (29 August 2005)

Hi All,

Any ideas on the freefall that WBC is taking?

cheers


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## Caliente (29 August 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

God I hate WBC. Held this biatch for 6 months and sold at a price that just covered my brokerage.

For me WBC stands for Wasted Bloody Capital.


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## GreatPig (29 August 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

Westpac has basically been going sideways all year, but is approaching its longer-term trend line. At this rate it should be there in another month or two.

Cheers,
GP


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## TjamesX (29 August 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

I remember seeing the CEO for Westpac being interviewed a couple of months ago. They have consciously decided not to pursue more risking lending and expansionary policies as aggressively as the others during this part of the cycle. This is directly related to some of the hurt the banks felt in the last housing boom around 89-90, theoretically this means they are better positioned for any   recession to come, but they have also not enjoyed the credit boom party as much.

Either way - I'm not holding any banks in the near future


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## dutchie (3 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

WBC have announced a buy back.

They have also said that today is the last day to be entitled to the Tax advantage ($4.00 capital - rest dividend). Therefore the SP has risen by about a $1 today??

Could one assume that tomorrow, after the above deadline, that the price might fall back to its price relative to yestedays price ???


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## happytrader (3 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

Hi there

Yesterday there was a trading holt because the profit results had 'accidentally' been leaked. (Channel 9) They were due for release today.
If you check out ANZ, SGB, MBL, NAB, CBA after profit announcements 9 times out of 10 they go down because the 'good' report' has already been factored in prior to the announcement. You need to check out monthly and weekly charts to understand and see this. 'They' can then buy the share back cheaper up to exdividend time. Its a double dip thing they do. In the case of WBC they've done a bit of a sneaky. The dividend players are buying up on the 'good' report and the dividend. Do you really think they are going to 'give' you all this for free? Would not surprise me if they take the equivalent of the dividend payout back tommorrow. 

Cheers
Happytrader


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## happytrader (3 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*



			
				dutchie said:
			
		

> WBC have announced a buy back.
> 
> They have also said that today is the last day to be entitled to the Tax advantage ($4.00 capital - rest dividend). Therefore the SP has risen by about a $1 today??
> 
> Could one assume that tomorrow, after the above deadline, that the price might fall back to its price relative to yestedays price ???




You're right on the money Dutchie!

Cheers
Happytrader


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## Stan 101 (3 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*



			
				dutchie said:
			
		

> WBC have announced a buy back.
> 
> They have also said that today is the last day to be entitled to the Tax advantage ($4.00 capital - rest dividend). Therefore the SP has risen by about a $1 today??
> 
> Could one assume that tomorrow, after the above deadline, that the price might fall back to its price relative to yestedays price ???





Hi I've found nothing on this, can you expand on the info please.

Cheers,


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## dutchie (3 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

Stan 101, have a look at the ASX site and get the announcements made by WBC today and yesterday (theres quite a few as they made a few balls up as well).

Happytrader, I think there were a lot of people scrambling to own WBC by today to qualify for the tax advantages of the buy back. Would not be surprised if WBC opened lower tomorrow (despite 51c div.) by up to 80c.



Don't take this as advice as I'm only guessing!!!


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## rozella (3 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

Announcement attached


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## dutchie (4 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

Sure misread that one big time (WBC up 20c at moment).

Back to the drawing board for me in fundamental analysis.

An interesting little period with dividends, buy backs, deadlines, leaked information, wrong information etc all happening at the same time.


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## happytrader (4 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

Dutchie you WERE right on the money. They took back their 51c dividend. $21.67 down to $21.16. They are all as greedy as. . You've just got to second guess them knowing and looking for this. They started moving out just before lunch yesterday in the 3rd hr. Check out your hourly chart - see that gravestone doji? Always check your charts in all time frames. You'll see we have pretty much got a range for this stock now for the month. Check my post yesterday at 1.10pm. Don't worry you are getting closer all the time.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## happytrader (8 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*



			
				happytrader said:
			
		

> Dutchie you WERE right on the money. They took back their 51c dividend. $21.67 down to $21.16. They are all as greedy as. . You've just got to second guess them knowing and looking for this. They started moving out just before lunch yesterday in the 3rd hr. Check out your hourly chart - see that gravestone doji? Always check your charts in all time frames. You'll see we have pretty much got a range for this stock now for the month. Check my post yesterday at 1.10pm. Don't worry you are getting closer all the time.
> 
> Cheers
> Happytrader




Judging from his posts especially that one in Crash of 05 thread today, our friend Chicken is a specialist in spotting market manipulation,greed and BS Good on you Chicken I know you've go their number.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## dutchie (8 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

HappyT, still powering on for dividend plays.

Looks like it might break out of channel (temporarily - till after 17th ??)

Could close that previous gap after that.

Still just guessing - been wrong before!!

Cheers


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## happytrader (8 November 2005)

*Re: Whats doing with WBC??*

Hi Dutchie

They can't beat you up too badly if you trade within the 21.16 - 21.67 range till exdividend time. I see Rozella's did'nt hold his Wbc stock till exdividend time - sold today - smart move. Just wait for the move. By the way Dutchie, have you checked out Anz today? I would not be 'surprised' if they were buying up today to push it up tomorrow. Remember, the pro's close the market thats why you don't get to see what that is till 4.05 - 4.09. It's all premeditated.

Disclaimer
I could be a raving looney or a greedy pig for all you know, however, it takes one to know one hehe!

Cheers
Happytrader


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## Uncle Festivus (28 March 2007)

Anyone have a view on WBC specifically and the banks in general? Seems to me some weakness creeping in to the big 4 lately?


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## CanOz (28 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Anyone have a view on WBC specifically and the banks in general? Seems to me some weakness creeping in to the big 4 lately?




I went short on WBC just before the close yesterday.

Cheers,


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## It's Snake Pliskin (29 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Anyone have a view on WBC specifically and the banks in general? Seems to me some weakness creeping in to the big 4 lately?




Naturally.


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## rico01 (29 March 2007)

CanOz said:


> I went short on WBC just before the close yesterday.
> 
> Cheers,




I,m short by way of 40  $26 dollar puts,The dow is currently down 99 points, Ah! life is sweet


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## adamwu (25 May 2007)

Anyone come give me advice about currently wbc moving? 

In just 3 days, it dropped about 80 cents. Have no idea what happened. Someone tell me it because old Greenspan said something, is that correct?


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## ozambersand (25 May 2007)

All the banks are taking a hammering, probably because of the Greenspan comments.

Westpac also just passed its "record date" post dividend (23rd May). A lot of people think they have to own the share till this date to ensure they get the dividend and there is traditionally a big sell off immediately after. (They went ex-dividend on 17th May)

Note that NAB has also gone down a lot and it still hasn't reached its ex-dividend day, so in some ways its downward share price momentum is more unusual than Westpac's as you would be expecteing it to hold firm or go up (like CSR and LNN are doing who have similar ex-dividend dates).

I just hope that WBC goes up again after I have picked the bottom and bought in for some more!  

But who knows when that will be..........


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## It's Snake Pliskin (6 June 2007)

I am seeing some weakness after the recent purge. If it can't get back up what is stopping it? If it is out of favour why?

I see resistance of sorts and considering a short sale. I am just waiting for confirmation.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (7 June 2007)

In response to a PM.

My signal was a significant down day which happened. I expect further down ward movement before any significant upward movement appears.

Discussion only.
Cheers


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## Moneybags (7 June 2007)

Snake,

I see where you are coming from with closing prices being lower than open for last 6 days........then a significant down day. I suspect you are right with more downward movement to follow after the Dow.

Cheers
MB


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## It's Snake Pliskin (7 June 2007)

and today tells the story of where I was hoping to get my $$$$ from, if my provider had let me go short.


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## rico01 (7 June 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> and today tells the story of where I was hoping to get my $$$$ from, if my provider had let me go short.




I've never got into CFD's cos of so many unknowns,but with options yesterday you could have paid 45c/$450 per contract of 1000 shares for a july $26 put which gives you 49 days to expiry. If you get it wrong thats all you risk unlike Cfd's. I usually trade in lots of 10 which gives you leverage to $260,000 of stock in WBC. How does that compare to CFD's?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (7 June 2007)

rico01 said:


> I've never got into CFD's cos of so many unknowns,but with options yesterday you could have paid 45c/$450 per contract of 1000 shares for a july $26 put which gives you 49 days to expiry. If you get it wrong thats all you risk unlike Cfd's. I usually trade in lots of 10 which gives you leverage to $260,000 of stock in WBC. How does that compare to CFD's? :




Yes I may need to take the options route I think. 

I am beginning to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (7 June 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Yes I may need to tak ethe options route I think.
> 
> I am begining to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.




Correct me if I'm wrong Snake ....but like every toy for the investor, the onus is on you to deliver a profit and the stakes are dreamy...you can loose much more ..... Perhaps I'm conservative old school, but greedy I'm not, just cautious.....


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## It's Snake Pliskin (8 June 2007)

3 veiws of a secret said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong Snake ....but like every toy for the investor, the onus is on you to deliver a profit and the stakes are dreamy...you can loose much more ..... Perhaps I'm conservative old school, but greedy I'm not, just cautious.....




...and your point is?

Conservative old school is? 

We all have the tools that we need - toys are for children.


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## rico01 (8 June 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Yes I may need to take the options route I think.
> 
> I am beginning to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.




Well snake after looking hard at WBC yesterday I actually did buy some put options, but june $26's at 41.5c, risky I know, but this morning it's lookin good for a bit of a correction, so i might owe u a beer or two, also I picked up those 100,000 YML u dropped at 26c so thanks 4 those too.
  Cheers:bier:


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## GreatPig (15 July 2007)

Westpac showing some bullish RSI divergence as it bounces near the trend line and comes out of oversold territory.

The current uptrend has been pretty solid and steady since the start of my data back in 1997, with the only hiccup being in late 2002. So short of a major change in trend, I think now is looking as good a time as any. I picked some up for my investment portfolio last month.

Cheers,
GP


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## It's Snake Pliskin (17 July 2007)

GreatPig said:


> Westpac showing some bullish RSI divergence as it bounces near the trend line and comes out of oversold territory.
> 
> The current uptrend has been pretty solid and steady since the start of my data back in 1997, with the only hiccup being in late 2002. So short of a major change in trend, I think now is looking as good a time as any. I picked some up for my investment portfolio last month.
> 
> ...




Hi GP,

I picked up some today just a small lot to let run for a while. I like the fact it has taken some time to start coming back up.  Brokers are positive on it and the PE is ok.


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## nomore4s (6 August 2007)

Was looking over the charts of the banks and noticed that Westpac has held up quite well lately, especially compared to the other major banks.

Anyone got any ideas on why?


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## ozambersand (7 August 2007)

Brokers have been tipping it as the best bank of the Big Four. That might explain it, but I doubt that is enough.

It has also consistently had more "buys" than "sells" in their market depth. I find that strange particularly as in the last fews days everyone else has had almost 4:1 sells to buys.

Something is going on.


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## voigtstr (9 September 2007)

I'm considering buying a $2k parcel of shares in WBC next payday (15/09) 
Is it just a matter of watching intraday prices and picking a dip?


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## Julia (9 September 2007)

voigtstr said:


> I'm considering buying a $2k parcel of shares in WBC next payday (15/09)
> Is it just a matter of watching intraday prices and picking a dip?




It's a pity your payday doesn't fall tomorrow, given there is likely to be a large fall here following the 250pt drop in the US on Friday night.
There will be other similar opportunities.  Good luck.


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## Arturius (30 November 2007)

*WBC - Westpac*

I've been keeping an eye on this stock for a little while, after the strong up move in late October, it looks like its retracting to a better value zone. Its been by far the biggest dog of the major banks in my opinion, which is a good thing, because reversion to mean trades with strong fundamental stocks is a solid way to trade.

Here's what I wrote about in my blog:

*Westpac (WBC)* has been getting creamed lately. It seemed to produce only sideways movement over the August financial sector decline, but I think thats because its gains have been more modest in previous years then the other big 4. I feel very good about its outlook. Looking to buy RAMS Home Loan Group (RHG), a company which has seen most of its value sliced this year, gives it a good opportunity to buy itself a broader customer base and further sell its innovative banking products. WBC hasn’t been getting the love of the other big Australian banks have been seeing this year, and for that reason I think its due for a catch up. The RHG buy out spooked investors into an early November sell off, but its starting to make its way back. I’d like to hold this one for the next 6 months and see how it plays out. If it dips below $26, I’d probably sell, the stocks getting way to weak. Come on, just look at the graph. Doesn’t this scream to you under appreciated? And once again, like almost all of my buys, insider trading has been very strong. This one is ready to shoot towards $38+. Go long at $27.60.

Any thoughts on the RAMS acquisition? Technically it looks like a strong place to buy, fundamentally I could see the RAMS buy out go either way.


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## TheRage (30 November 2007)

Just thought I would comment on some of your points. Don't take this as an attack but I wish to clarify on some of your points of discussion.

1) In relation to the comment it's been the biggest dog of the four banks I am wondering what you are using to support that argument. From my research Nab wins that title hands down. 10yr Total shareholder returns for the big four are as follows. NAB 12.4%, CBA 18.8%, ANZ 16.9% and WBC 17.0%. Seems to me WBC stacks up quite nicely.


2) With respect to the comment Westpac hasn't been given the love of the other banks this year, well again I must disagree. Total 1 year shareholder returns WBC 18.7%, NAB 4.3%, CBA 28.9%, ANZ 1.9%. Again WBC comes out second best.

3) The comment that the RHG buyout spooked investors seems the unlikely culprit rather I suspect the fact that the market droped 7% before the election might have a little more to do with it. 

4) The comment Insider trading has been very strong perhaps should be worded more carefully. I assume your refer to management purchasing the stock on market. I have not seen great evidence of this. By the way one could mistrue your wording to suggest that you were infact insider trading. 

5) The comment this one is ready to shoot to $38+ is unsubstantiated. I realise you are a graph trader but perhaps some analysis on this might be useful. From a fundamental perspective if earnings growth is around 12% (historically close to this) then it is likely this will be the annual growth. From WBC's average 5 yr PE of around 13 Westpac is fairly valued at the moment. However in two years time using a conservative annual eps return of 12% and providing PE ratio is preserved at 13 the value of westpac should be around $31. Of course overvaluations always occur. 

For the record I believe Westpac is probably the best bank. However all banks have a payout ratio of around 70% of earnings as dividends and why banks will never grow more rapidly due to only 30% of earnings being returned to retained earnings and therefore used to create more earnings. 

I own Westpac. DYOR


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## 2020hindsight (29 December 2007)

just for the record 
here's WBC for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages 
Also WBC vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either 
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)


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## treefrog (18 February 2008)

*westpac woes*

westpac hasn't seen $20 since aug 05 but looks like revisiting soon.

strong 5yr trendline break and now retracing almost 50% of 5years of gains in last 4months


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## Bill M (21 February 2008)

I've noticed that Westpac has been announcing several issues of debt securities. Could somebody explain to me exactly what they are? Attached is a recent one, thanks.


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## Birdster (21 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> I've noticed that Westpac has been announcing several issues of debt securities. Could somebody explain to me exactly what they are? Attached is a recent one, thanks.




This link is a great start. (I didn't know either)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_(finance)


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## Family_Guy (19 June 2008)

Can someone explain WBC at the moment? I don't get the new SPS they want to start because it says in the prospectus that "on the winding up of Westpac" and thats the bit i don't get. I'm asking because in pre-open this morning, the stock is up 30% and i'm not sure if i should be holding or selling (don't need to answer that) because of this new stock code they are introducing. 

Thanks
Newbie.


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## roland (19 June 2008)

Family_Guy said:


> Can someone explain WBC at the moment? I don't get the new SPS they want to start because it says in the prospectus that "on the winding up of Westpac" and thats the bit i don't get. I'm asking because in pre-open this morning, the stock is up 30% and i'm not sure if i should be holding or selling (don't need to answer that) because of this new stock code they are introducing.
> 
> Thanks
> Newbie.




I don't have the answer to your question, but I wouldn't be concerned with the pre open figures as most of my stocks have unusually high pre open figures. They'll clear to a more realistic value just before open.

I'm holding, and will grab some more if it goes below $21


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## roland (19 June 2008)

Looking at a 2 year chart seems to indicate that Westpac is at, or close to the bottom.

Now, I am neither a chartist nor fully conversant with all the issues affecting WBC's SP, but at these levels I am thinking that it is a good buy.

When compared with ANZ's chart, it is obvious that WBC's lack of performance is not a Westpac thing, but just showing the pain of the financial sector.

I have been grabbing some of these since just before ex-div and the latest today at just above $21.00.

Even with the SP weakness the secure and high dividend returns along with the strength of being a bank .... and a strong buy rating from Aegis leads me to believe that WBC is a reasonable safe investment at these levels.

Just my opinion - would love to hear others ....


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## ColB (19 June 2008)

Like you said Roland pretty much the whole financial sector is experiencing hard times and not likely to turn around quickly in the short to medium term.  I'm not a chartist either but it looks like a pretty good downhill trend to me.  Might pay a reasonable dividend and maybe close to being a relatively safe buy but I couldn't help but think even a safe stock like BHP will outperform it over the next 3-5 yrs without any problem.

Disclosure:  I used to own WBC shares until last week.  Regards CB


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## roland (19 June 2008)

ColB said:


> Like you said Roland pretty much the whole financial sector is experiencing hard times and not likely to turn around quickly in the short to medium term.  I'm not a chartist either but it looks like a pretty good downhill trend to me.  Might pay a reasonable dividend and maybe close to being a relatively safe buy but I couldn't help but think even a safe stock like BHP will outperform it over the next 3-5 yrs without any problem.
> 
> Disclosure:  I used to own WBC shares until last week.  Regards CB




Sounds good, my managed "resources fund" is heavily into BHP and RIO and the like, so I am covered there. Gotta' diversify a little though .....


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## ColB (19 June 2008)

Yeah you're right there Roland.  I'm diversifying too.  I'm diversified into Resources, Resources, Resources and some Energy.


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## roland (23 July 2008)

Outstanding day for WBC - up 7%. I followed this silly stock all the way down to $19.00, 400 units each $1.00 drop. Now happily selling as it rises again. Not to be too complacent, I suspect that a retrace to $19 is not out of the question - given the right catalyst.


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## subaru69 (23 July 2008)

ColB said:


> I'm diversified into Resources, Resources, Resources and some Energy.




I bought ANZ @ 28 and WBC @ 26 and due to my previous advanced investment style  I didn't sell them as they dropped.  So I bought a bucket of miners to diversify. Now they're going down and the financials are recovering. 

Eventually things will go my way. 

Disclaimer: things aren't that bad, it's all part of the fun


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## UMike (23 July 2008)

roland said:


> Outstanding day for WBC - up 7%. I followed this silly stock all the way down to $19.00, 400 units each $1.00 drop. Now happily selling as it rises again. Not to be too complacent, I suspect that a retrace to $19 is not out of the question - given the right catalyst.



I hope so.

I bought in twice at early $19s and looks like I sold a bit early in the 20s a few days ago.

Who knows a couple poor results elsewhere and they could get back there again. Somehow I think the worst is over for the banks.


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## TheAbyss (24 July 2008)

CBA are first cab off the rank for reporting so they will be a guide to what the other 3 do imo.

Looking at the CBA sp it would appear the expectation is for a good set of figures. If CBA report some good numbers it will rub off on the other 3 and they will rapidly rebound.

Got into WBC and ANZ on the strength of the CBA support yesterday so here's hoping. First stock in a few months i have bought outside IO and CSG other than a failed attempt at picking a bottom on BNB so any thoughts on the financials more than welcome positive or negative.


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## roland (24 July 2008)

I sold another parcel at $22.30 for a 3% gain. Getting nervous now as I feel WBC has run a little too hard. Still I am exactly where I need to be - doesn't matter whether is goes up or down now, it's either a buy or a sell depending on the next SP move.


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## roland (25 July 2008)

bad start for the day, NAB's announcement didn't help. I was so close to jumping the turnaround with WBC after the reassuring announcement, but I have enough tied up already, great to watch the SP recover so strongly


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## McNovice (28 July 2008)

Have been looking into getting some Westpac shares, but they took a bit hit today, especially after Lunch. Ok, I understand NAB took a hit on Friday due to their announcement and ANZ took a hit today due to the same reason NAB did. I cannot see an announcement from WBC- Does this mean the market is expecting one to come as the other 2 have?? and this is the reason for it to dive 8%? So I'm thinking hold off in case they do make an announcement as it will drop even more?

Views from Non Novicers would be appreciated


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## subaru69 (28 July 2008)

McNovice said:


> Have been looking into getting some Westpac shares, but they took a bit hit today, especially after Lunch. Ok, I understand NAB took a hit on Friday due to their announcement and ANZ took a hit today due to the same reason NAB did. I cannot see an announcement from WBC- Does this mean the market is expecting one to come as the other 2 have?? and this is the reason for it to dive 8%? So I'm thinking hold off in case they do make an announcement as it will drop even more?
> 
> Views from Non Novicers would be appreciated




Very simple facts are:
1. the banking sector is cactus; check various threads such as 'imminent severe market correction','have banks turned the corner','XAO analysis' etc
2. NAB and ANZ effectively lied (thru non-disclosure) of massive write-offs, now no-one trusts ANY of the banks not to lie
3. politicians coming out and saying 'everything is ok, don't panic' = panic
4. WBC could be a great bank with no exposure to anything and still get slammed by this market sentiment (as it did today)

I know this response isn't either TA or FA in nature; but you don't have to explain light as a particle or wave to know the sky is blue.

PS- unfortunately I hold all stocks mentioned  so am not attempting to down-ramp


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## lsj84 (29 July 2008)

I worked at ANZ, there was an old lady handing over me a cheque to Bell Potter, which is her broker, of 20 or 30k to buy ANZ shares through Bell Porter at price of $23. that was in February. Then I cant remember clearly on which case, maybe Allco or BNB, Bell potter was publically critisized for their short selling behaviours. This is outrageours for me, and that poor old lady is so unfortunate that she believed their lies that banks have bottomed. 

Sorry guys, I just went shorted on WBC last week after banks rebounded. The reason Im doing this is becasue banks are a myth, there are so many things that can be and will be uncovered during the course of ordeal. I still remember one JP Morgan banking analyst talking how pessimistic he was about aus banking sector on abc's lateline business and a programme about credit card issuing on abc's 4 corners. 

Im not sure how different the stories in the US and in AUS. But if we follow the lead on Wall street, our banks would suffer further. Jim Rogers has been saying and saying on interviews that he has been and will still be short on financial indices. 

This is a systmatic risk in banking, diversifying into it would be costly.


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## wayneL (29 July 2008)

subaru69 said:


> Very simple facts are:
> 1. the banking sector is cactus; check various threads such as 'imminent severe market correction','have banks turned the corner','XAO analysis' etc
> 2. NAB and ANZ effectively lied (thru non-disclosure) of massive write-offs, now no-one trusts ANY of the banks not to lie
> 3. politicians coming out and saying 'everything is ok, don't panic' = panic
> ...



IIRC WBC was the bank that nearly went down the gurgler in the last property route.  Jeez and this one is only just getting warmed up.


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## dhukka (29 July 2008)

McNovice said:


> Have been looking into getting some Westpac shares, but they took a bit hit today, especially after Lunch. Ok, I understand NAB took a hit on Friday due to their announcement and ANZ took a hit today due to the same reason NAB did. *I cannot see an announcement from WBC*- Does this mean the market is expecting one to come as the other 2 have?? and this is the reason for it to dive 8%? So I'm thinking hold off in case they do make an announcement as it will drop even more?
> 
> Views from Non Novicers would be appreciated




How could you not see a similar announcement from WBC over the course of the next 12 months? There is a distinct pattern here. Take a look at what happened in the US banking sector for a guide. No bank will be immune. Bank earnings have peaked and are now in reverse, the cycle has clearly turned.


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## Greg71 (13 September 2008)

Hi,

Anyone else watching this double-top formation? Looks like it's ready to move.






Stochastic divergence as well.

Greg.


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## Greg71 (14 September 2008)

It's at a "turning point" I guess. While it's forming a double top, it's also an ascending triangle, plus it's above the 30 week m/a. 

So, will it be 1. and ascending tri 2. a double/ triple top or 3. a sideways channel.

This week will be interesting.


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## white_goodman (14 September 2008)

the overall trend is up, im in for a long position... we shall see this week..

the chart below looks like its gonna hit that double top again, if it has some momentum we may breakthrough... up in the air atm


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## roland (9 October 2008)

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

WBC -13.13%


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## niknah (9 October 2008)

Makes me feel better, but not good, here's my losses...

-7.36% WBC
-40.62% ANZ

It's going to take several years or a decade for some of these companies to get back up.


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## Big_Daz (27 October 2008)

Quick question...if you were to invest in SGB instead of WBC as at this date, would you still pick up the $1.28 div SGB is paying or do you miss out?

Thanks guys


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## deadset (30 October 2008)

Anyone know the next ex-dividend date ?
(I'm guessing yesterday)

Would you believe I sold SGB the day before the takeover announcement.
($22-24 or something)


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## TheAbyss (30 October 2008)

deadset said:


> Anyone know the next ex-dividend date ?
> (I'm guessing yesterday)
> 
> Would you believe I sold SGB the day before the takeover announcement.
> ($22-24 or something)





11 November registration date @ 72c per share payable on 17th December. 100 characters is tough to achieve sometimes.


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## deadset (30 October 2008)

Thanks for that.

I think I might buy back in soon for a few of the banks, I caught a bit of the slide from before.  

The finger in the pie seems to working for banks in any case, its screwed up my timing though for when I should buy back in.  With a divy coming up and an election in the US coming up its all in the timing.


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## fujitsu (4 November 2008)

wbc is going exdiv tomorrow meaning most likely its sp will fall reflecting the div payment. Since wbc is merging with sgb and sgb shareholders will get 1.31 wbc shares will sgb sp fall as well?


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## TheAbyss (4 November 2008)

fujitsu said:


> wbc is going exdiv tomorrow meaning most likely its sp will fall reflecting the div payment. Since wbc is merging with sgb and sgb shareholders will get 1.31 wbc shares will sgb sp fall as well?




Fuji, you frightened the bejesus out of me. I thought i had plenty of time to sell out of WBC pre ex div date until i read your post.

They go ex div in another week not tomorrow (I have pasted an excerpt from the dividend statement released to market 30 October below). In the interim some nice gains being experienced and hopeful of a bit more pre going ex div.

The dividend will be paid to all holders of Westpac ordinary shares who are registered on the share register as at the record date, 5.00 pm (Sydney time) on 11 November 2008 (5.00 pm (New York time) on 10 November 2008).


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## roland (4 November 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Fuji, you frightened the bejesus out of me. I thought i had plenty of time to sell out of WBC pre ex div date until i read your post.
> 
> They go ex div in another week not tomorrow (I have pasted an excerpt from the dividend statement released to market 30 October below). In the interim some nice gains being experienced and hopeful of a bit more pre going ex div.
> 
> The dividend will be paid to all holders of Westpac ordinary shares who are registered on the share register as at the record date, 5.00 pm (Sydney time) on 11 November 2008 (5.00 pm (New York time) on 10 November 2008).




Westpac are ex-div tomorrow:

Dividend Type Cents Per Share Franked % Ex-Dividend Date Pay Date 
Final 72.00 100 05 Nov, 08 17 Dec, 08

The record date is ex-div date plus 3 days, plus the weekend - so I believe today was the last date


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## sails (4 November 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> ...The dividend will be paid to all holders of Westpac ordinary shares who are registered on the share register as at the *record date*, 5.00 pm (Sydney time) on 11 November 2008 (5.00 pm (New York time) on 10 November 2008).




Perhaps you have mistaken the record date with xdiv date.  Below is a cut & paste from their website: http://www.westpac.com.au/internet/publish.nsf/Content/WIICFC+Financial+calendar


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## TheAbyss (4 November 2008)

Thanks guys. Looks like i have found another method to leave some cash on the table.

Nothing else to say for the 100 other than oops!


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## sails (4 November 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Thanks guys. Looks like i have found another method to leave some cash on the table.
> 
> Nothing else to say for the 100 other than oops!




Seems to be part of the learning process - called the school of hard knocks.  It's where the best lessons are learned   Anyway, will depend on how the market performs tomorrow - while a drop by at least the dividend amount is the expected norm, they don't always if there is a strong up move on xdiv day.  Just as it can exceed the dividend amount on the downside on a bearish day.  Hope it works out in your favour


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## TheAbyss (5 November 2008)

Appreciate the sentiment. Comsec tells me that ex div date is the 5th so i have today yet to close out so no problem as i see it.


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## Real1ty (5 November 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Appreciate the sentiment. Comsec tells me that ex div date is the 5th so i have today yet to close out so no problem as i see it.




If you wanted to sell without receiving the dividend, you need to sell PRIOR to the ex dividend date.



> *Ex Dividend*
> The first day of trading when shares trade without the entitlement to the dividend. To be entitled to a dividend a shareholder must have purchased shares before the ex dividend date. Shares are quoted ex-dividend four business days before the Record date.







> *Record date*
> The date on which Westpac's register of Shareholders is closed in order to determine entitlement to a dividend.




I think you might be lucky as with the market improving and the DOW up 300 points, you might find it won't drop as much as you expected and who knows it may even appreciate over the next day or two.


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## sails (5 November 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Appreciate the sentiment. Comsec tells me that ex div date is the 5th so i have today yet to close out so no problem as i see it.




If you own the shares, it shouldn't make a lot of difference as you should now be entitled to receive the dividend which technically puts you as being no worse off than yesterday.  Just means waiting until the div is actually paid to bring your account back to this level.  You may also qualify for the franking credit depending on your circumstances. So, you should still be able sell today and receive the dividend in a few weeks.

But don't take my word for it as I'm not a financial advisor  - check with your broker for clarification


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## TheAbyss (5 November 2008)

Thanks guys. Worked out well (albeit poorly researched on the div dates),

Bought at $20.35 last week, sold for $21.50 on 70% lvr today. Obtained the dividend at 72 cents ps plus a capital profit on the SP.

Profit on trade 26.16%.


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## coolacoola (5 November 2008)

After the market closed, they released a statement stating that they have a 200m exposure to Allco. Depending on the way the dow performs tonight, the stock could face some pressure tomorrow. Then again i may be wrong if the Dow rallies 500 points. 
Interesting times

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-with-200m-exposure-to-allco-20081105-5icn.html


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## sails (5 November 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Thanks guys. Worked out well (albeit poorly researched on the div dates),
> 
> Bought at $20.35 last week, sold for $21.50 on 70% lvr today. Obtained the dividend at 72 cents ps plus a capital profit on the SP.
> 
> Profit on trade 26.16%.




Always nice when you can learn a lesson from the market and still get some profit - congrats on a winning trade


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## Real1ty (13 November 2008)

Westpac was absolutely smashed today and very harshly in comparison to other banking stocks.

95% acceptance rate for the merger but i can't see how this could have had any negative effect on the SP as it was always going to go through.

I've been caught out a bit on this one and am a little concerned.


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## coolacoola (13 November 2008)

I believe several factors are at play. When Westpac merge with St George they will be giving out shares, thus more supply of shares, likely to drive the SP down. Remember 1.31 for every St George share. Also possible exposures to other companies might be a factor. Also capital raising to a lesser extent

Would be interesting to here from anyone else following whats been going on


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## shccbell (13 November 2008)

The dilution of shares can't be an issue as the underlying assets exceed what is being paid for them. The exposure surely was factored in weeks ago and reserves are in line with Westpac anyway, I assume they did due diligence. I've been caught out as well having bought a lot at 19.10 but think this is simply an over reaction like the rest of the market. 

The market simply isn't trading on technical or fundamental analysis should have been out months ago but to late. My bet is we will see a major rally of banks in the next 3 months as the fear slowly subsides and people realise the banks are trading below fair market.


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## Sean K (14 November 2008)

All the banks are on a pe of 9 ish at the moment, so if earning stay stable they look undervalued on a long term perspective with ave pe of 14 ish (to be corrected). They are either oversold, or the market is correct that their future earnings are going to come off about 40%. 

I bought this a few weeks ago as a long term hold for the grandkids, but bailed as the bad news just got badder .... How much more to come? All factored in, or not, that is the question I'm asking myself across a lot of companies that one day will regain old highs, but how much lower can they go and how long till recovery ...


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## Real1ty (14 November 2008)

coolacoola said:


> I believe several factors are at play. When Westpac merge with St George they will be giving out shares, thus more supply of shares, likely to drive the SP down. Remember 1.31 for every St George share. Also possible exposures to other companies might be a factor. Also capital raising to a lesser extent
> 
> Would be interesting to here from anyone else following whats been going on




But the dilution has been known about for months.

The merger once given the go ahead by the Govt was always going to go through easily and the market knew this, so why on the day that it is made official and gets through with a resounding vote of confidence with a 95% acceptance rate is it smashed by about 12%?

I could understand it if it limped over the line with 75-80% but at 95% and with it always going to get through it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Probably just an anomaly and i almost averaged down yesterday at a touch over $17.00 but decided to tread carefully as my "Something is smelly here" radar was on high alert.

Cap raising or at least rumour of one possibly?


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## agro (20 November 2008)

i got a target of $10 on WBC - is this realistic?

either WBC or ANZ - one of the two

also, they likely to keep their dividends next year


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## Sean K (27 November 2008)

agro said:


> i got a target of $10 on WBC - is this realistic?
> 
> either WBC or ANZ - one of the two
> 
> also, they likely to keep their dividends next year



It could go further down as with the rest of the sector, but by how much is a pure pluck withought any analysis.

You do probably need to decide which stock your talking about too, their share structure is different, so $10 for ANZ may not be as lower in MC value as $10 for WBC ... at a pluck. 

I don't think the banks will maintain their dividends but by how much is another pluck. They say they are not going to cut, but I think they'll have their pants on fire shortly ...

I see $14-15 as a decent support zone for WBC, but it's been defying gravity like all the rest. 50% off highs is probably a decent phychological support level too. 

But heck, the world's on fire. All the banks could go rupt too ...


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## Miner (27 November 2008)

kennas said:


> It could go further down as with the rest of the sector, but by how much is a pure pluck withought any analysis.
> 
> You do probably need to decide which stock your talking about too, their share structure is different, *so $10 for ANZ may not be as lower in MC value as $10 for WBC ... at a pluck. *
> 
> ...




Kennas

Thanks

What do you think the decent support zone for ANZ will be  ? 

It has less robustness than WBC and probably Westpac is the best share in today's bank fraternity with debt and hedging losses.

Cheers


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## Sean K (27 November 2008)

Miner said:


> Kennas
> 
> Thanks
> 
> ...



I thought $16 was going to be....

The 98-99 highs at $12 look to have held.

For now...

eeeek


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## GundamZeta (9 December 2008)

WBC going to offer SPP @ $16.. is it a good price to add more or it still value too high in this recession environment?


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## sardines (10 December 2008)

I'd wait for the folks to dump their stock below $16. No idea how low this can go, but wait and see. Hard to see a big sp rebound any time soon. So far Aussie stocks haven't taken much of a US led rally, and I think another bout of selling would come by end Jan 09 so I'm sticking to mostly cash atm.


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 January 2009)

kennas said:


> I thought $16 was going to be....
> 
> The 98-99 highs at $12 look to have held.
> 
> ...






GundamZeta said:


> WBC going to offer SPP @ $16.. is it a good price to add more or it still value too high in this recession environment?




It is now time for the gumnut superfund to make a decision, partake in the spp or wait for WBC to tank down to $12 and just buy some more.

A useful article on the conundrum.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-dilemma-for-shareholders-20090128-7rih.html

gg


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## YELNATS (28 January 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is now time for the gumnut superfund to make a decision, partake in the spp or wait for WBC to tank down to $12 and just buy some more.
> 
> A useful article on the conundrum.
> 
> ...




As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.

I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.

I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.


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## roofa (28 January 2009)

YELNATS said:


> As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.
> 
> I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.
> 
> I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.




I don't think it wll be $16, from memory it is to be average of last five days before close of offer.


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## Bill M (28 January 2009)

YELNATS said:


> As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.
> 
> I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.
> 
> I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.




It is averaged out over the last 5 trading days to Jan 30. I bought my load today, it will still be cheaper through the SPP in any case. That of course is if there is no major catastrophes next week.


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## YELNATS (29 January 2009)

Bill M said:


> It is averaged out over the last 5 trading days to Jan 30. I bought my load today, it will still be cheaper through the SPP in any case. That of course is if there is no major catastrophes next week.




Sorry, you're correct, looks like the average may be say $15,20 to $15.40, just my prediction based on last 3 days plus today so far, and tomorrow to come.

Still mulling over whether to take it up, not much time left. Not as good as BOQ's offer of a 7.5% discount to their average price, although it's a bit hard to compare BOQ with WBC I know.


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## Garpal Gumnut (30 January 2009)

YELNATS said:


> Sorry, you're correct, looks like the average may be say $15,20 to $15.40, just my prediction based on last 3 days plus today so far, and tomorrow to come.
> 
> Still mulling over whether to take it up, not much time left. Not as good as BOQ's offer of a 7.5% discount to their average price, although it's a bit hard to compare BOQ with WBC I know.




I decided to spare gumnuts superfund any more pain at present. I can see them falling to $12 on a technical basis, see my chart above. I have not taken up the spp. The instos must be quaking I hear you say. !!!

gg


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## YELNATS (3 February 2009)

Today's ann re WBC's capital raising:
Quote

Australia's biggest bank by market value, Westpac Banking Corporation, has received applications for about $422 million worth of new shares from retail investors.

Successful applicants will receive shares at $15.26 each, which was the volume weighted average market price for the five trading days up to and including January 30, the Sydney-based bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

Unquote

Trading today as high as $16.63, so not too bad for those, like myself who (in a limited way), took up the offer.


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## Sean K (13 March 2009)

Potential breakout through 17 on WBC perhaps. Has that basing over the past 4 months been the bottom? Or a major bottom, whatever that means. Few stocks looking like this. Hmmmm.


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## nomore4s (13 March 2009)

Kennas alot of stocks have put in solid basing patterns atm and a few are now breaking out, as per my blog I'm now totally long (probably stupid) as I cannot find a decent short set up and am only getting buy signals. I think we are getting close to some kind of bottom but we might see 1 more strong leg down then could go sideways for a few years.

WBC & CBA are my 2 favoured banks based on stronger relative strength and the patterns that are forming, will be looking to add some WBC to my income portfolio in the near future but only a 1/2 parcel at the most for now.


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## Sean K (14 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> WBC & CBA are my 2 favoured banks based on stronger relative strength and the patterns that are forming, will be looking to add some WBC to my income portfolio in the near future but only a 1/2 parcel at the most for now.



They're my favourite too, but not in yet. Well, I was, but bailed to wait and see how short term events would unfold.  

Good volume yesterday but failed to hold above that resistance at 17. Something's gotta give sooner or later I feel. 

Come on bear! Rally!!

But not too much before I'm set ....


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## Sean K (19 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Good volume yesterday but failed to hold above that resistance at 17. Something's gotta give sooner or later I feel.



Nice break through here and the H&S target around here. A nice H&S on CBA as well. 

There was movement at the station ......


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## Sean K (24 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Nice break through here and the H&S target around here. A nice H&S on CBA as well.
> 
> There was movement at the station ......



H&S target practically met. Should do tomorrow with the strength in the US. CBA similar. Bottoms in?


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## investedz (24 March 2009)

Hi kennas,

Placed some long orders yesterday, but did not get filled 

When you say h&s target is met, did you mean that the H&S is complete (too late to trade long) or confirmed (indicator to buy)? 

Yeh yeh i know DYR, but i promise won't hold you liable for what you say


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## Muschu (6 May 2009)

Any thoughts on the interpretation of today's results? I find it difficult to read these reports and to anticipate the market reaction.
Regards
Rick


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## venno (25 May 2009)

My interest in WBC has perked up today given the drop in SP. I have been searching for some news/announcment that triggered todays selling but can't find the smoking gun.

Can anyone help out?


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## KurwaJegoMac (25 May 2009)

I believe it might be due to the the ban on short selling of financials being lifted today, although I thought they would have dropped more. Perhaps the big institutions will be shorting in the next couple of days


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## ROE (25 May 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> I believe it might be due to the the ban on short selling of financials being lifted today, although I thought they would have dropped more. Perhaps the big institutions will be shorting in the next couple of days




Wait till the US market open on Tuesday, Monday is their public holiday
I reckon ASIC does this deliberately so it doesn't face the pressure of the US 
market and the home grown shorters

More down days for Financial stocks ahead


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## ROE (25 May 2009)

venno said:


> My interest in WBC has perked up today given the drop in SP. I have been searching for some news/announcment that triggered todays selling but can't find the smoking gun.
> 
> Can anyone help out?




shorted is lifted on financial stock today .... brace for more negative days
and any bad news give ammunition for shorter to bell the hell out of them.

I join them on MQG  22 millions shares so far loan out for shorter


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## venno (27 May 2009)

Made a little money out of WBC yesterday, was going to go back in today when QBE caught my eye instead.


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## gfresh (24 June 2009)

Looks like Westpac is entering a fairly predictable downtrend.. not much volume recently, meaning should fall at least another 5% with the heavy shorts loaded onto it at the moment. 

Next obvious stop is $18 - $18.50.. Longer target is $17, where exists multiple long-term support, however probably a couple of months off


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## Sean K (30 July 2009)

gfresh said:


> Looks like Westpac is entering a fairly predictable downtrend.. not much volume recently, meaning should fall at least another 5% with the heavy shorts loaded onto it at the moment.
> 
> Next obvious stop is $18 - $18.50.. Longer target is $17, where exists multiple long-term support, however probably a couple of months off



This was pretty good.  Not sure about $17 now. 

Market supposed to be correcting down further, but banks are going up. 

Bit of a break up here, but just tentative.

I'm waiting for confirmation to add to position.


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## gfresh (30 July 2009)

Yeah.. was a tad wrong on the downtrend channel , although it did respect the upper trend line, broke in mid-July, and then bounced off it. More valid was probably the strong support exhibited at around $19. 

Letting some profits carry, but I know I'm finding it hard to justify buying in on prices above $21.00 at the moment given so much is baked into a recovery already (watch it go to $25 now )).. 

I still like WBC next to CBA being the largest two now.


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## Sean K (31 July 2009)

Good break up. 

Been an amazing run for the banks, all way up off their lows. Approaching 50% in a few months.


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## Sean K (3 August 2009)

Fair to say the banks have broken up significantly the past 2 days. All WAY off the March bottom. Wonder how long this will last? 

Is there going to a second phase to the US recession to pile a wall of worry on the world again? Or, have we been bailed out? Surely that debt will catch up to us again. FFS California can't even pay it's contracts out and is issuing IOUs...

Whatever the case, on the charts, this looks to be a significant longer term break, imo.

Could that be a Cup and Handle there?


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## googs (7 October 2009)

Trading halt on WBC today until tomorrow morning pending outcome of court case...anyone know much about this and how it would potentially impact the share price?


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## Dark1975 (7 October 2009)

googs said:


> Trading halt on WBC today until tomorrow morning pending outcome of court case...anyone know much about this and how it would potentially impact the share price?




Mate i'd say the shares won't be dramatically affected,Cause this case has been ongoing for a while and would have been factored in,But in short the case embroils all the major banks over a structured finance-related transactions that date back ten years ago.Further more the NAB has set aside $nz661 million to cover the possibilty of losing as have ANZ has also set aside $nz405 million.
But in reguards to the question "Anyone know much about how it will affect the share price?"Answer: No one can answer that,It's like asking me what the xao will finish tomorrow?And unfornately we can only assume or guess?In short my personal opinion is that it won't affect the price alot,Because this case has been ongoing for a while and has been factored in,one would imagine.Anyway the ruling will be announced at 11am e.s.t tomorrow morning,unless westpac announce a statement before hand!


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## nhkam (1 February 2010)

*WBC - Westpac*

Strange trading price after market close for Westpac today.

My charting program recorded the following transaction for WBC on 01/02/2010 after market close. Can anyone tell me why this happen.

The trade is at $1.625 and the last transaction is 6:21pm.
Total volume is 191,636 shares.


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## naughtynickers (1 February 2010)

*Re: WBC - Westpac*

strange on etrade it has the top 2 transactions at a different price...
perhaps some director bought some shares off another for payment of relations wife his wife lol
Call ASIC


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## skyQuake (1 February 2010)

*Re: WBC - Westpac*

L5XT = late put through crossing. Just broker adjustments, nothing to worry about. Especially since it was reversed.


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## nulla nulla (25 August 2010)

Westpac reports a profit of Billions, the analysts determe that it is $100m less than their expectations and the price drops 12.5%. You have to wonder if they make negative comments to push the price down so they can stock up. The level of shorting over the past three days has been high also. 
The chart shows a down trend over the past few months with the current price at the lower part of the channel. Is it due for a bounce or looking to break out downward?


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## nulla nulla (26 August 2010)

The ASX lists of shares shorted on the market showed: for Monday 23-08-10 that 24% of the volume of wbc shares traded  were short sales; and on Tuesday 24-08-10 the volume of wbc traded as short sales was 38%.  The figures for yesterday will not be available until after 11:00am this morning.

The patern of trading appears to be that the share price is sold down quickly, then a large amount turns over, over a longer time span appearing to stabilise the price. Then the share gets sold down again before the close, with a large amount turning over in the closing auction with the share price closing near the daily lows .

Banks clawed back some of their value on the djia last night. It will be interesting to see if banks can recover any of their value on the Australian market today.


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## No Gain (26 August 2010)

I'm hoping they claw back and don't drop down further. I bought in on the 29th of July at $24.27 so not at all happy with this shorting that is going on at the moment. Hopefully buyers start coming back in soon!


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## skyQuake (26 August 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> The ASX lists of shares shorted on the market showed: for Monday 23-08-10 that 24% of the volume of wbc shares traded  were short sales; and on Tuesday 24-08-10 the volume of wbc traded as short sales was 38%.  The figures for yesterday will not be available until after 11:00am this morning.
> 
> The patern of trading appears to be that the share price is sold down quickly, then a large amount turns over, over a longer time span appearing to stabilise the price. Then the share gets sold down again before the close, with a large amount turning over in the closing auction with the share price closing near the daily lows .
> 
> Banks clawed back some of their value on the djia last night. It will be interesting to see if banks can recover any of their value on the Australian market today.




Think you are reading that wrong - the asx report shows total short sold; Not daily short sold.


WBC	

Date	         Total SS
23/08/2010	3,068,802
24/08/2010	5,196,805
25/08/2010	2,758,760

ie, 3mil shorts were covered yesterday.


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## Garpal Gumnut (30 October 2010)

A Flag in a Downtrend, Trading range, could be a problem for the bulls.

gg


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## nulla nulla (30 October 2010)

skyQuake said:


> Think you are reading that wrong - the asx report shows total short sold; Not daily short sold.
> 
> 
> WBC
> ...




While showing my ignorance, what is the difference? The asx report is for the number of short sold shares on the preceding day, which I read as the "daily" total of shares shorted on the nominated day?


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## 3aq1e (10 November 2010)

How much longer do people think bank shares will continue to decline.. particularly wbc.


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## nulla nulla (13 November 2010)

With the politicians filling time playing "lets kick the banks arround" and the "know-it-all overseas economists" saying "lets impose stricter regulations on all banks" it isn't surprising to see the market price getting pushed down again. 
However at what point will the market decide they are becoming a bargain? 

wbc has the best price earnings ratio atm, just posted another record profit and increased the dividend which is fully franked. On Friday 12/11/10 the price was in the range $21.80 to $22.16. The ASX shows the level of wbc shares being shorted on a daily basis for Wednesday 10/11/10 was over 40%. 

Assuming the shorters have pushed the price down to accumulate, can we expect to see it bounce from here or will it continue down to test the $21.00 support level?


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## nulla nulla (19 November 2010)

wbc seemed to be maintaining a tenacious grip on the price range $21.80 - $22.00 and after the bounce in Europe overnight and the U.S I was half expecting a lift in the share price above $22.20.

So it came as a bit of a surprise when wbc fell to an interday low of $21.50 before closing on $21.62. With the resurfacing of the European Sovereign debt issues don't be surprised if wbc tests $21.00 or lower next week.


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## oztrades (19 November 2010)

Every picture tells a story...
any number of reasons could explain the banks plights at the moment... from mortgage stress to unbelievable profits, however my theory is that the banks arent being supported because the insto's have to make the QRN float work so they have been pulling profits.


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## So_Cynical (19 November 2010)

Apparently there is alot of international money shorting the banks as a proxy for Aussie housing...as the housing bubble deflates so will the bank stocks that have 70% of there money in Aussie housing.


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## TraderMM (22 November 2010)

I have a theory on the reason why the banks are down, including WBC, and it has nothing to do with fundamentals. 

Earlier this year the IMF put out a report saying that aussie housing is some of the most expensive in the world. Consequently US based funds concluded there is an imminent property crash here and decide to short aussie banks. Unfortunately for them not only is there little or no likelihood of a property crash here, our banks are strong, have reported great profits, paid good dividends, and the AUD has moved up against the USD big time. Their short positions are way out of the money. In the meantime these funds are desperately trying to talk down the banks. Recently there were reports in the financial media about overseas investors attempting to set the seeds of doubt by asking Fitch to stress test aussie banks. There has been a huge weight of speculative overseas money on the short side of the banks. No wonder they are down.

I know this sounds like a bit of a conspiracy theory but has anyone else made similar observations?


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## So_Cynical (22 November 2010)

TraderMM said:


> Unfortunately for them not only *is there little or no likelihood of a property crash here*, our banks are strong, have reported great profits, paid good dividends, and the AUD has moved up against the USD big time.




Its a popular call...people said the same thing a few years back in Ireland, Spain, Japan, the US and most of Europe and of course they were very wrong, some say "but its different here" and what about "supply and demand" etc etc.

Those factors didn't work in the rest of the world and they wont work here...bubbles are unsustainable its a fact, the Aussie banks are massively exposed to housing and ready to take a tumble.


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## YELNATS (22 November 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Its a popular call...people said the same thing a few years back in Ireland, Spain, Japan, the US and most of Europe and of course they were very wrong, some say "but its different here" and what about "supply and demand" etc etc.
> 
> Those factors didn't work in the rest of the world and they wont work here...bubbles are unsustainable its a fact, the Aussie banks are massively exposed to housing and ready to take a tumble.




Assertions, assertions. You may be correct and it's all very well to assert this, but do you have evidence to back up your assertions?

I'm a prospective real estate buyer in 2011, so I'm very interested in your justifications.


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## sptrawler (23 November 2010)

Well the only OBVIOUS thing that can cause a housing collapse is people not being able to meet their payments. This would only happen if there was an increase in job losses and at this point in time this would only occur if China reduced it's demand for our resources.
It could be argued that the U.S, U.K and Europe, who are the biggest consumers, are in recession and therefore not purchasing as many Chinese products. Also many believe the Chinese could pull the rug on infrastructure spending. If this happened it would not only be the banks that cop a beating all our stocks would be trashed.


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## ginar (23 November 2010)

THis may or may not be responsible for weakness in bank stocks here , likely a combination of a few things , rate rises here , euro zone soveriegn debt issues . ........... bank index in US has been stuck in a range for near on 7 months , could break either way  

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS...Opening+Bell&utm_campaign=10Thing_NL_11222010


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## nulla nulla (13 December 2010)

Downward channel as discussed in chat. The lower bar starts Sept 16 to Nov low, upper bar is parralel to that.


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## ginar (13 December 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Downward channel as discussed in chat. The lower bar starts Sept 16 to Nov low, upper bar is parralel to that.




yeah easier to see in picture form no doubt , mine here is showing the slightly older alternative TL resistance . its certainly is approaching a point to watch


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## dougy (13 December 2010)

For my 2-bob's worth, the medium-term view seems to hint at a continuing gradual decline.

Price on the weekly chart seems to meander between $21 and $24.
Meantime, 39-bar Stochastic shows WBC in a medium-longterm decline, and Relative Strength Comparison against weekly XAO is clearly below par.

Will endeavour to upload a weekly chart.


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## nulla nulla (13 December 2010)

I have overlaid the downward channel over the corresponding RSI chart. Todays price action shows an upward breakout from the upper channel bar. 

IMO the RSI chart suggests the price is venturing into the overbought area as it has gapped up from the moving average price. However given its recent fluctuation between $21 - $24, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go a little higher.




The MACD chart also shows that the price has gapped upward away from the moving average. Volume of turnover is fairly good and the recent news effecting the share price has improved from the constant bashing bank stocks were receiving.




The moving Averages chart appears to indicate a revesal from the downward trend. Fingers crossed.


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## nulla nulla (14 December 2010)

Closing on $23.00 today after tapping $23.05 for the interday high. There was a good turnover through the day at $23.00. In the dying stages of trading wbc fell back to $22.95 but the buyers in the auction pushed the price back up to $23.00. I wonder how much of it was shorters closing out, now it is known that Waynes Swans proposed changes to banking will have minimal impact on the big banks?
If wbc can break through $23.10 it could work its' way back up to the $24.00 range.


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## RandR (18 January 2011)

Bought in at 22.15

I believe the outlook to be good, the only reason i would sell other then for profit taking is if employment rates deteriotate or something fundamentally changes with the business/australian economy. Although im looking at holding for 1yr plus or more unless i decide to take profit beforehand. I believe alot of the SP of this stock is driven mostly by distributions, as a lot of people see it as a yeild stock, so expecting to make some decent return on price in the 2nd half of this year when there dividend season is open.


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## ozbrit (22 April 2011)

WBC  SP is on a good run at present and out-performing the other three. I suspect this may be a buy on the rumour/sell on the fact story. Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.


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## RandR (22 April 2011)

ozbrit said:


> WBC  SP is on a good run at present and out-performing the other three. I suspect this may be a buy on the rumour/sell on the fact story. Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.




Could be. I was happy to lock in some profits, sold at 25.

I have a fairly gloomy feeling that credit growth is/has been quite difficult for the banks in the last few months and in the next year or more, so was happy to take profit before the results came in.

 As someone at my workplace told me the other day "you wouldnt believe how much the banks will lend me at the moment" ... i smiled and took it as a possible warning.


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## Judd (22 April 2011)

ozbrit said:


> Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.




4th of May.

Check this link for details on a number of companies.  You can access it via the ASX web-site

http://www.brr.com.au/partner/asx/calendar/2011/05


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## nulla nulla (29 April 2011)

While the rest of the world has been sneaking higher and higher, the xao took a contrarian stance and (led by resources and banks) went downwards against the trend.

WBC had been making gains against the other banks, (mind you it had lagged behind and was overdue for a catchup particularly against anz) took a hit this week giving away most of it's hard fought gains.

Realistically, despite all the hard ships about financing costs sprooked by Ms Kelly, there hasn't been any profit downgrades and I expect the report to be another bumper profit. No doubt there will be a further rally when the report comes out. If the share price keeps slipping, I will add some to the portfolio and (hopefully) ride the rally up til it goes exdiv.

As always do your own research, all care and no responsibility. What would I know, my last trade on wbc only got across the line on the strengh of the div and the franking credit.


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## RandR (5 May 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> While the rest of the world has been sneaking higher and higher, the xao took a contrarian stance and (led by resources and banks) went downwards against the trend.
> 
> WBC had been making gains against the other banks, (mind you it had lagged behind and was overdue for a catchup particularly against anz) took a hit this week giving away most of it's hard fought gains.
> 
> ...




Interested to know if youve taken advantage of the dip to top up nulla ?

I was happy to close out at 25, if the SP moves down into the 22's in the near future i'll consider taking another bite at it, but I am quite worried about WBC ability to generate credit growth over the next year or two with a stalling domestic housing market, but none the less, will keep an eye on it. Would be happy to acquire some again at a suitably 'cheap' price, maybe the next few weeks will present such an opportunity.


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## nulla nulla (5 May 2011)

RandR said:


> Interested to know if youve taken advantage of the dip to top up nulla ?
> 
> I was happy to close out at 25, if the SP moves down into the 22's in the near future i'll consider taking another bite at it, but I am quite worried about WBC ability to generate credit growth over the next year or two with a stalling domestic housing market, but none the less, will keep an eye on it. Would be happy to acquire some again at a suitably 'cheap' price, maybe the next few weeks will present such an opportunity.




Not yet. I thought the report was good. I noted the concerns re provision for potential defaults on existing mortgages and considered the market reaction was an over reaction. My opinion only. 

WBC finished on the lows today and I expect it to drift lower again tomorrow (but it may only be brief) before those wanting to take advantage of the increased dividend and franking credits start to accumulate. I also expect a run up before it goes exdiv.

However the chart indicates the bottom of the channel could be as low as $22.80ish. I personaly would be watching closely for any bounce in the area of $23.50. Can't always pick the bottom, could be horribly wrong. IMO $23.50 and a bit of patience allows for a run up over $24.00 and a margin for a trade profit.

It's the external factors that you really have to try and factor in at the moment. The Sovereign debt issues worldwide, employment, inflation and the housing price bubble, etc etc.

As always do your own research (and keep some disposable nappies handy)


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## nulla nulla (8 May 2011)

WBC keeps getting negative overviews even when they post increased profits. Some times you have to wonder what analysts expect. IMO wbc is undevalued when compared to the CBA, NAB & ANZ. However opinion counts for nothing when the market sentiment is negative and the share price keeps dropping.

Recent highs are getting higher and lows appear to be higher as well.


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## romeo (10 May 2011)

another down day for Westpac, I'm glad I sold the other day @ 24.49.

I thought the report was pretty good and seemed to have good reviews in the papers etc. Perhaps the SP movement is due to a weaker outlook.


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## nulla nulla (14 May 2011)

Normally a share like wbc would run up in price before it goes exdiv. wbc however has run down before going exdiv closing at $23.73 (at one stage it got down to $23.51 for the second time this week).

On monday the share will be trading exdiv and I will not be surprised to see it drop $1.00 to the mid $22's. Bloody silly imo, wbc continues to post profit increases yet it is trading closer to the gfc lows than the pre gfc highs.

Still good opportunities for anyone confident of rebounds. As always DYOR.


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## RandR (15 May 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Normally a share like wbc would run up in price before it goes exdiv. wbc however has run down before going exdiv closing at $23.73 (at one stage it got down to $23.51 for the second time this week).
> 
> On monday the share will be trading exdiv and I will not be surprised to see it drop $1.00 to the mid $22's. Bloody silly imo, wbc continues to post profit increases yet it is trading closer to the gfc lows than the pre gfc highs.
> 
> Still good opportunities for anyone confident of rebounds. As always DYOR.




If WBC does continue a slide i think it could present a decent buying opportunity, my concern with the profit increases is that they were driven by 'acquisition benefits' of st george, do you think these sort of profit increases are sustainable in the future ? That I think is the key question to the australian banking industry at large atm. But im happy to bite at the $22's.


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## romeo (17 May 2011)

depending on your time frame you may want to wait.

The short term chart looks like it's in a down trend, as they say, don't try to catch a falling knife. It has certainly traded below the trending channel in the charts posted above; however this was exacerbated by going ex div. 

There is a pretty major support line at 22. I would wait and see if it tests this. If it goes below, the next major support is at 21.

(apologies for not posting a chart)


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## romeo (18 May 2011)

Having a look again at the charts and it seems that the SP has bounced nicely off the lower trendline.

Anyone have any other views on this?

This could be good for those trading the channel...


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## skc (18 May 2011)

romeo said:


> Having a look again at the charts and it seems that the SP has bounced nicely off the lower trendline.
> 
> Anyone have any other views on this?
> 
> This could be good for those trading the channel...




If I was to trade WBC I would look at the other Big 4 as well. If they all show signs of strength than the set up will be more valid imo.

ANZ is looking to close the dividend gap and possibly challenge the top of the channel.
CBA looks to be forming a rising triangle.
NAB has the best strength and is retesting recent resistances (now support).

That's with the bullish lens anyway. Moody's downgraded all Big4 long term debt today but I don't believe that will have any real impact on the share price - they merely move inline with S&P belatedly...


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## nulla nulla (18 May 2011)

I'm surprised that anyone takes any notice of moody's and the other rating agencies. Their "ratings for fees" is highly questionable at the best of times and after the collapse of the well rated companies and products in the gfc, i think anything they say should be taken with a grain of salt....or 2 or 3.


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## nulla nulla (20 May 2011)

Bounced off $22.48 after going exdiv. Hit $23.06 and $23.07 before falling back, Wednesday & Thursday. Then fell back to low $22.70's today. It could go lower, however the recent lows have been higher which to me suggests we are in for a slow sideways/upwards climb? Or maybe I'm completely wrong and about to lose my shirt.


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## nulla nulla (27 May 2011)

Ouch, just when you think it is safe to go back in the water along come the sharks. This week wbc got smacked down to $21.46 as the doomsdayers sprooked the potentail negative impact of a collapsing Australian property market combined with an anticipatated forthcoming interest rate rise and the likelihood of the european sovereign debt having a negative impact on the 30 -40% of mortgage funds westpac borrows off shore.

Get real. Westpac over accrued for doubtful debt during the gfc and is now reducing same. Westpac has increased the ratio of deposits/mortgages and reduced it's reliance on overseas funding. The overseas funding is spread over a few years and doesn't fall due tomorrow. It all sounds like a beat up as the hedge funds decide to short the share price and spread the negative news. Fortunately the market let them run then started buying up, wbc being seen to be a bargain at $21.50 with a yield close to 10% when you factor in the franking credit.

The shorters are obviously getting squeezed out. WBC rebounded yesterday and after another pointless down grade of NZ banks by that esteemed ratings agency moody's the price jumped almost 10c in the auction as the professionals bought up the oversold stock.

Can't wait for next week.


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## Joshbl098 (30 May 2011)

I dont think such harsh movements are due to the current news in the world, but due to the natural technical side of things. I think WBC is just about to climb to its second shoulder according to the head and shoulders analysis. Although, then again, im just a stupid first year who hasnt been in the market for very long... haha.
This could also work well as an elliot wave, 3 wave cycle down.


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## nulla nulla (31 May 2011)

I bought some at $21.51 last week thinking there would be a rebound over the next two weeks to the $22.50 - $23.00 range (approximate to the exdiv price of $23.73 less the div and franking credit plus some small recovery).  

It looked good when it rebounded to $22.25 however the support was short lived. WBC dropped back to $21.87 at yesterdays close. Volumes were lower yesterday, but I suspect this is due to buyers holding back rather than sellers pushing down.

Buyers appear to be sitting on the sidelines, holding back, due to a combination of concerns in regard the European sovereign debt debacle, the U.S.A having a long weekend and our own Real Estate Market having low clearances last (rainy) weekend.

If it drifts lower I will consider soaking some more up for a longer term trade.


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## Joshbl098 (31 May 2011)

Hmm, as it would be natural for a market to worry pre GDP and house data, today stocks are up led by banks... I don't think the news is having that great deal of impact on the stock price. WBC broke through it's line if resistance pretty sharply, rising to 25.60 that quickly would cause major pessamism about the SP. Now that the stock as broken through the support level of $22 I would now assume best case scenario that the stock will begin it's way back up to the original resistance, or continue to fall to the next level of support 21$. 

I bought it on Monday at 22.09, right at the open, probably a mistake to do so because if I had of waited half an hour the stock would fall below 22 again.
In worst case scenario, if the stock falls bellow 21.50 I'll buy more. I can see the stock climbing back to 24 within the next month.
DYOR


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## nulla nulla (31 May 2011)

If it hits $25.60 in a hurry I'll sell the lot. Todays price action was interesting. Climbed from a low $21.84 to the interday high of $22.19. The volume at $22.12 was huge.
If the international markets are up tonight, tomorrow should be even better.


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## nulla nulla (1 June 2011)

International markets were up, however Australian finance stocks were on the nose today. wbc retraced to close on $21.95. Not low enough to go in for more. not high enough to sell. The waiting game begins.


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## Joshbl098 (2 June 2011)

Ugh... today is going to be horrible... Market is open for 2 minutes and everything is in the red.
Im really reluctant to sell since I see such a great oppertunity to make money within the next month/s if the world can just chill out for a moment. Im going to hold onto them. If there is going to be a double dip, there has to be a second bull first... right? haha


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## nulla nulla (5 June 2011)

Joshbl098 said:


> Ugh... today is going to be horrible... Market is open for 2 minutes and everything is in the red.
> Im really reluctant to sell since I see such a great oppertunity to make money within the next month/s if the world can just chill out for a moment. Im going to hold onto them. If there is going to be a double dip, there has to be a second bull first... right? haha




If you think Thursday was bad, Friday was worse. For a while it looked like wbc would claw it's way back above $21.60 but then in the latter part of the day the sellers pushed it down to $21.30 with the price bouncing to $21.35 in the close.

The charts indicate the share as "oversold" but the market sentiment for banks atm is bad and there is every likelihood that the price could get pushed further down. International markets are all contracting under the negative feedback of the economic "recovery" and Australian banks are getting sept along with the tide.

DYOR, imo it is currently a "buy" but with my luck the price will only drop lower before the sentiments swing back in favour of banks.


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## ginar (5 June 2011)

WBC sees 21.00 as key support .


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## Joshbl098 (6 June 2011)

I'm holding onto the stock I bought at 22.09, with money ready to buy at close to 21.00. i might buy if the stock hits 21.10, to make sure i dont miss the low just in case. but likewise i suspect wbc's real line of support is 21. so ill buy, and if it goes down further, ill hold on.
what is happening to the economy is the same as what was happening with companies those couple years ago. Greece is getting bailed out, so will any others if need be. Australian banks are well managed and guaranteed. personally i think the current price is a ridiculous opportunity, and if people just hold on then they will be fine.
traders are finding any reason to sell because the stocks optometrist power has reached its max, and soon, its pessimistic power will die. just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.


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## poverty (6 June 2011)

Joshbl098 said:


> just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.




Hold for QE3 and the miraculous market 'rally' that will follow.


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## Julia (6 June 2011)

Joshbl098 said:


> traders are finding any reason to sell because the stocks optometrist power has reached its max, and soon, its pessimistic power will die. just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.



What is 'optometrist power'?


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## poverty (6 June 2011)

Julia said:


> What is 'optometrist power'?




That's the ability to see market forces that you cannot.


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## nulla nulla (7 June 2011)

Julia said:


> What is 'optometrist power'?




Getting new glasses when you are having trouble reading the charts??


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## Joshbl098 (7 June 2011)

Hahahaha.
Optimistic.


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## Joshbl098 (7 June 2011)

Very embarrassing.. haha


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## KurwaJegoMac (7 June 2011)

Joshbl098 said:


> traders are finding any reason to sell because the stocks optometrist power has reached its max, and soon, its pessimistic power will die. just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.




Just out of curiosity, exactly how are you measuring 'optimising/pessimistic power' and how have you determined when it is at a maximum or minimum?


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## Joshbl098 (7 June 2011)

Well, you cant. I didn't write that statement for everyone to try and find whats wrong with it, or take advice from it, I'm just participating in discussion about how I feel about the stock.
All I'm saying is that I FEEL that there gets to a point in the market when people fear about what other people may do. And other peoples reactions are based on the same fear. So if one person were to think the price has peaked and begins to worry others think so too, they sell there stock, and of course, that's what everyone else is thinking, so the SP falls... I mean that's the core basics of how the stock market works...
And I use the word "power" to describe how rapidly the stock rises then falls again.


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## nulla nulla (11 June 2011)

Westpac spent the best part of the week trying to bounce, however every time it rallied interday it would get pushed back before close. After an "up" night on the international markets on Thursday, Westpac opened above $22.00 on Friday morning.

Unfortunately it was all down hill from there, pushing down below Thursdays close to rally slightly in the last 20 minutes to close 6c higher. I had to laugh when the channel 9 6:00 o'clock news included westpac in their finance report as having a good result.

The djia fall of 176 Friday night doesn't bode well for our finance stocks next week.


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## The_Snowman (11 June 2011)

lot of charts in this thread so may as well throw mine in the mix 

you can see where this program gave sell signal, target was hit, but no buy signal yet


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## nulla nulla (15 June 2011)

My buy signal was $21.51 on May 25th. I accumulated some more at $21.51 on June 2nd and again at $21.46 on June 3rd. We are a bit overweight with wbc so I unloaded some yesterday, locking in moderate profit and preserving capital. I will re-enter if it drops below $21.80.


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## nulla nulla (15 June 2011)

After the publication of two articles in todays Sydney Morning Herald Business section I was not surprised to see wbc open lower and fall. The articles painted a fairly negative perspective of the Western Sydney component of morgages written by wbc in the period 2008 - 2009. Apparantly the sky is going to fall and the potential late or missed mortgage payments will cause wbc to miss their expected billion dollar profits.

We almost got back in at $21.81 but fortunately held back long enough for the entry on the second dip to $21.61. No doubt it will be cheaper tomorrow.

As always do your own research, and remember I am biased, I hold wbc (Sometimes I think the ratings agencies work hand in glove with the hedge funds when they want something negative printed so they can short the stock).


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## Joshbl098 (16 June 2011)

I agree with you completely, some guy out there is making bucket loads from shorting this stock. Today was a shocker... Lets hope there is a reversal. Good day to buy in...


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## nulla nulla (16 June 2011)

Westpac got hit hardest of all the banks and the interday low of $21.05 was the lowest it has been this year. If this is the start of the second "dip" I am in big trouble    If it is a correction with any hope of a rebound then I am not in trouble   . 

I am giving it another 2 weeks to play out. If it is still in the red come 30 June I will close out the losses to offset capital gains (then probably go back in for any rebound).


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## alexandro (19 June 2011)

I am also heavy WBC and sitting on a 30k loss. We need to get rid of June quickly and go into July. Sun should start to shine again. Should be ok since ASX200 closed above key support on friday (4477). The indicators looked good there for a day or two last week, but then turned away. Just need DOW and All Ords to finish going down and start going up. Your idea of allowing 2 weeks for things to play out is a good one and should give enough time for things to turn better. If ASX200 is under 5000 by 30 December, it will be undervalued. So between now and end of year, I feel ASX200 has 400-500 points to gain. This will lift WBC back to at least 23 (conservative). We may also get 23+ in 4 weeks. WBC is like a coiled spring right now, a few hundred points gain on DOW overnight and ASX200 (with an plan for Greece proposed, and minute good USA data) should make it put on a buck or two. With hindsight, we will look back at this mid-year period on the charts and say "look at that, thats when we should have pushed it all in". June needs to finish.


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## nulla nulla (1 July 2011)

I locked in a modest profit yesterday at $22.18 (on a parcel purchased at $21.35) then watched the price spike to $22.32. Picking bottoms and tops is to elusive for me. Happy to have a profit. 

Was hoping to unload another parcel (purchased at $21.61) today at $22.31 but didn't have the sale in and the share price dipped soon after open and never looked like comming back. 

WBC seems to get hit hardest of the banks when there is any sort of retrace, probably something to do with St Georges's exposure to NSW mortgages. That and the hedge funds still expecting Australia to have a real-estate bubble burst like the yanks did. Stupid buggers don't realize we don't have the exposure to "ninja" property loans like they did. Still, makes for swings with entry/exit prices providing opportunities for quick trades. 





Good to see the flurry of buyers come in at the auction lifting the close back above $22.00. Maybe there is hope yet.


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## nulla nulla (8 July 2011)

Westpac appears to have closed at the top of a new resistance point. It will be interesting to see if the market decides it should break out from here and climb to $23.00+ or whether it should get sold off back down to the low $21.00's.


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 July 2011)

Thanks nulla,

I've been watching WBC meself, and agree with your analysis.

The only thing that concerns me is the decreasing volume over the last two weeks or more on this increase in price.

The oversold rsi when price has trended sideways as usual shows good correlation with a break upwards, not present atm, although the price has trended up, which could explain this.

I do hate fundamentals, but has the danger been priced in to banks, or will they trade sideways for a year or more?

Monday will assist. I may buy if it rises but if it falls I'll be looking like you at low 21's which shows good support.

gg


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## nulla nulla (8 July 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The only thing that concerns me is the decreasing volume over the last two weeks or more on this increase in price.




I suspect this may be because a lot of Australian investors are sitting on the side lines waiting for the Carbon Tax fallout to settle.



> The oversold rsi when price has trended sideways as usual shows good correlation with a break upwards, not present atm, although the price has trended up, which could explain this.




There was speculation several weeks ago that Overseas Hedge funds are shorting Australian Banks relative to their mortgage exposure on the Eastern Coast. Westpac having the highest exposure through the combo of Westpac and St George. 

The basis of this being the expectation that our housing prices are inflated and the bubble will burst as did the u.s.a. notwithstanding that the u.s.a market was built on "ninja" loans and their banks did not have the same degree of regulation and management standards as ours.

This could be causing a problem to the shorters in that having pushed the price down, local investers come in on the basis of TA/FA for the yield, franking and lower price earnings ratio. This appears to put a floor under the price in the low $21.00 area. Obviously the shorters are also able to soak up shares at the lower levels and even turn small amounts of shares back into buying encouraging the price up to the point they start shorting again. Reverse swing trading perhaps?



> I do hate fundamentals, but has the danger been priced in to banks, or will they trade sideways for a year or more?




Personally I think we are going to see sideways trading in Australia for some time to come and not just in banks. Australia is pretty much ripe for the picking by international hedge funds and perhaps foreign governments.



> Monday will assist. I may buy if it rises but if it falls I'll be looking like you at low 21's which shows good support.
> 
> gg




I'm hopefull of an upward break out but cashed up to come back in if it tests the low $21.00's. As always this post is an opinion only and not a recommendation. Readers should do their own research etc.


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## nulla nulla (13 July 2011)

I thought our market would test lower levels today and wbc would be under $21.00. 

The low for the day was $21.12 (twice, double bounce?) then before the close it clawed it's way back up to $21.23. However in the auction it was pushed back down to close on $21.14, same as yesterdays close. 

Can't work out if it is because of exposure to Italy, Carbon Tax or Property Prices going to fall?


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## Julia (13 July 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Can't work out if it is because of exposure to Italy, Carbon Tax or Property Prices going to fall?



Presumably a mixture of the local falling confidence levels due to government incompetence, reinforced by the 'details' of the carbon tax, along with the utter mess in Europe and the possibility that if the US doesn't get it together before 2 August, they will default on their debt.

Quite enough, all up, to cause a loss of confidence, I'd have thought!


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## nulla nulla (14 July 2011)

Julia said:


> Presumably a mixture of the local falling confidence levels due to government incompetence, reinforced by the 'details' of the carbon tax, along with the utter mess in Europe and the possibility that if the US doesn't get it together before 2 August, they will default on their debt.
> 
> Quite enough, all up, to cause a loss of confidence, I'd have thought!




Nah..I don't think it is Government competence or lack there-of or the carbon tax details. I think it is a combo of:

1. Reliance (although low) on a component of overseas funding for local mortgages which will get more expensive if there is a default;
2. Having bought Italion and other European governement bonds; and
3. The overseas hedge funds still trying to short our banks down in anticipation of a Australia property price collapse.

All overated and presenting investors/traders with competitive entry points, imo. As always do your own research.


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## nulla nulla (14 July 2011)

It goes up on "irrational exuberance" and down on "irrational fear" and plunges on panic. Today someone hit the panic button. All the banks took a hit but wbc seemed to take a bigger hit then the other majors.

In the afternoon there was a lot of support in the range $20.62 - $20.68 with the clawing back to $20.74 then jumping back to $20.77 in the auction but the mood is definitely negative.

Todays interday low at $20.61 was lower than the interday low of $20.73 on 1 July 2010 although todays closing price was higher. If it can't rebound from here the next support level goes back to the interday low of $19.60 on 23 July 2009. 

Life jackets on and buckets and pumps at the ready in case we take on more water.


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## blue0810 (14 July 2011)

If hedge fund are shorting Australian  banks. Well  I’m joining them.  Too late ..Not sure


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## nulla nulla (15 July 2011)

Financial stocks took another battering today (except McQuarrie Bank) and the fear mongering and sell down continues. 




Watching closely for the first signs of stability on the international scene (Italy) for a viable re-entry point. Also being cautious that this may be the continuation of a longer term sideways and downward trend. I'd like to think things are not so bad as they were during the implosion of the gfc.


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## blue0810 (15 July 2011)

This week  all banks  in Red:

-5.20	ANZ
-5.41	CBA
-7,00	NAB
-7.66	WBC
-7.02	BOQ
-3.06	BEN
-6.32	MQG


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## Julia (15 July 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Financial stocks took another battering today (except McQuarrie Bank) and the fear mongering and sell down continues.



Why are you calling it fear mongering?  The fear is quite justified, so it doesn't constitute 'fear mongering' which supposes an artificially and unrealistically based fear.

PS  try *Macquarie* Bank Australia


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## notting (15 July 2011)

Banks are really being overly talked down at present. It's an advantage being an Ausi because we don't have to worry about the currency height with respect to stock decisions. We can buy em at these great levels and sit back, take the franked dividends and wait for the sun to come out.  It will.  If the best banks in the world don't get back up life will not be worth living anyway so what the hell!!


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## nulla nulla (15 July 2011)

Julia said:


> Why are you calling it fear mongering?  The fear is quite justified, so it doesn't constitute 'fear mongering' which supposes an artificially and unrealistically based fear.
> 
> PS  try *Macquarie* Bank Australia




I respect your right to your opinion and your right to express your opinion, after all Australia is still a democracy. Also I thank you for the spelling lesson.


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## nulla nulla (16 July 2011)

notting said:


> Banks are really being overly talked down at present. It's an advantage being an Ausi because we don't have to worry about the currency height with respect to stock decisions. We can buy em at these great levels and sit back, take the franked dividends and wait for the sun to come out.  It will.  If the best banks in the world don't get back up life will not be worth living anyway so what the hell!!




Having read many articles and listened to several economist in the media discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the Australian banks versus the international banks (not just wbc) I would have to say most of them are supportive of our banks. Nothwithstanding they have confirmed that Australian banks have an exposure to Italian Government Bonds. This is possibly linked to their sourcing credit from the European banks that the Aussie banks need to have European Government Bonds as security for the lines of credit. 

The Ratings agencies like Moodies; Standard and Poor and; Fitches down graded Australian Banks (which the banks duly reported to the ASX as required under the disclosure laws). The down grade was on the basis that:
1. Australian Banks source funds from Europe to finance their mortgage books (which could get more expensive or difficult to get if a default in Greece etc occured);
2. Australian Real Estate prices are at inflated levels: 
3. That the property price bubble is about to burst, causing a collapse of our real estate market like that which occured in the u.s.a.; and 
4. Our banks will have exposure to losses due to defaulting martgagees.

The reality is that aussie banks have been sourcing funds from Europe for over 19 years to finance mortgages, it is not something new. Also, since the gfc, aussie banks have significantly reduced their reliance on overseas banks for funding, being able to access funds from increased savings pools of aussie customers as well as being able to tap bond markets arround the world. 

Australia doesn't have the "ninja" problem the u.s.a. had. Our unemployment is below 5% and the mortgage default situation in Australia is minimal. In some areas residential prices are dropping but in others they are holding or continuing to increase. If there is a bubble the pop will have minimal impact across Australia (except maybe the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast in Qld).

Foreign hedge funds talking down our banks and real estate, simply demonstrates their lack of knowledge of the Australian economy. While the hedge funds have the financial resources to push prices down, eventually they will wake up to the fact that Australia is not about to have a depression. If things got really bad here the RBA would step in to assist the local banks and the goverment will guarantee the major banks. Glen Stevens has already said as much.

The push down does provide entry opportunities for investors prepared to take a long term view, benefiting in the short term from dividends and franking credits while yields are at 8% plus and benefiting in the long term from capitial gains when things return to normal.

IMO It is unlikely that the Euro member countries will let Italy go to the wall. However while they dicker about what they can do, the markets will probablt jump up and down like it did when the Euro members dickered about Greece. This could provided trading opportunities for the stout hearted. As always do your own research and good luck.

I apologise in advance for any spelling errors in this post.


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## Julia (16 July 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I apologise in advance for any spelling errors in this post.



Couldn't find any this time, nulla, just a few typos.
Probably was a bit cranky of me to point out the spelling for Macquarie.


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## nulla nulla (16 July 2011)

There is another article in the Saturday Sydney Morning Herald worth a mention, the prediction by the westpac economist Bill Evans, of a 1% interest rate fall over the next 12 months.

Here is the link...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/westpac-rates-to-fall-1-20110715-1hi9s.html


A significant perspective in his reasoning is..."Interest rates were ''too high'' given the weakness in non-mining parts of the economy, according to the chief economist at Westpac, Bill Evans, who predicted the Reserve would deliver moribund consumers a cut of one quarter of a percentage point at its December meeting. Further three-month instalments of 0.25 percentage point cuts would follow, he predicted. ''While *the catalyst for the first rate cut is likely to come from offshore*, we do not expect it to be a one-off,'' he said. ''Interest rates are too high in Australia given the state of the non-mining sectors of the domestic economy and a downward adjustment is required to avert a damaging round of contraction.''

(My bold) It could be interpreted as "Things are going to get worse before they get better". Next week (and possibly the next few months) will be very interesting.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/westpac-rates-to-fall-1-20110715-1hi9s.html#ixzz1SFvUT01K


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## alexandro (17 July 2011)

During the early recovery from the GFC (April/May 2009), these current levels (20.50) acted as resistance and it could not break above it and into 21’s until late July 2009.  Last years early July rebound came from support at 20.56 level. So seems the roughly 20.50 level is resistance turned support and we are right on support now. It should be a rebound from here of some size, small or large. If no rebound from here, then fears about Australian housing and falls in Australian banks are real and coming, in which case WBC will go under 20 and potentially 17.50 (could even do a revisit of GFC lows depending on severity of panic). I can’t see it go under 20 or can’t see it yet. If WBC rebounds from here and never comes back under these levels, then this was all fear and panic and there was no Australian housing bubble and banks at these prices were a bargain. Use your instincts.
The 50% fall in Australian bank stocks during the GFC was for what reason? Profits didn’t fall that much. Australian housing didn’t fall that much. So it was fear and panic, artificial and unrealistic based. The same could be happening right now.


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## ginar (17 July 2011)

Its not looking good is it . CBA finish on friday may give a reprieve to the other 3 for a while . under my key of 21.00 , i wouldnt touch it personally .


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## nulla nulla (23 July 2011)

Westpac dropped to $20.50 last Friday and seemed to consolidate there on Monday & Tuesday this week. The share price rallied back above the $21.00 mark, finishing the week at $21.60 (Interday high of $21.74). 

The news out of Europe was positive for the rescue of Greece. No doubt the market reads into this the bail out deals will be available for Italy and/or any other Euro member country that needs it. The news out of u.s.a continue to oscilate between good reports from companies like IBM giving hope that the economy is slowly on the mend, to the ongoing congressional battle to have the debt ceiling raised reminding everyone that the u.s.a. economy is stuffed.




It wouldn't surprise me for wbc to test the low $22.00's next week. Balancing that I fully expect the share price to fall again on the slightest rumour of any further fiscal discord in Europe. It is these rises and falls that makes for trading oportunites, mind you the swings can be sudden and a stout heart is a prerequisite.


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## IrishDigger (28 July 2011)

Good on you Ms Kelly -- it takes a Kelly to sort things out.:aus:

Click Here For News Report


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## ajjack (28 July 2011)

Wow!     watch the SP take off now.

Cant wait.....


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## nulla nulla (28 July 2011)

Forget about  the low $22.00's. With the brinkmanship between the U.S President and the Republican Speaker creating a mexican standoff, the world is getting nervous and pulling it's money out of the share markets, particularly finance sectors. WBC tested $20.54 today, only slightly above last weeks lows of $20.51. 

The deadline is 02 August 2011 for the debt ceiling to be raised failing which the u.s.a will be in default. If there isn't a quick compromise things will get worse Friday (tomorow) and Monday, Tuesday, Next week. If they reach a compromise on Tuesday night our time then I expect wbc to jump at least 2% on Wednesday.

If they don't reach a compromise by Tuesday night our time..........well you work it out for yourselves, I'll be down at the red cross looking for a blood transfusion.


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## alexandro (29 July 2011)

Normally a rebound arrives at 2 months or less. When you go through the WBC historical chart, you can see that the most stubborn and problematic decline from peak to trough has lasted 2 months and 3 weeks before a meaningful rebound has occurred. Even in the depths of the GFC, this was the case. A meaningful rebound of a few dollars came after 2 months and 3 weeks or after a time frame comfortably inside of this period.  Using this historical behaviour and taking the current fall we are experiencing from late April’s 25.50 to qualify as stubborn and problematic, when we apply 2 months and 3 weeks from late April, we get a bottom being hit at about middle of July. So it suggests the low of 20.50 on 15 July was it. Yesterday’s low was 20.54. So it is possible that the worst for this plunge since April was over on 15 July at 20.50. A proper rebound is now due and should occur. Unless the recent rebound from 20.50 to 21.74 was it.


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## alexandro (29 July 2011)

If there is no more rebound until further falls, then get ready for further fall in Australian banks and financial crisis Australian version- the Australian Housing and Financial Crisis AHFC. WBC will go under 20 and into 19, then down to 17.50. The government of this country should be more delicate at this time and less experimental. They should already have skill and experience in good policy design and be qualified to become government before they are given the job of governing. Not  learn these things during. They win the majority vote and they are qualified but really they are not.


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## alexandro (29 July 2011)

Naturally, you want to land safely if there is a problem mid-air. I think we would all want a talented more experienced pilot at the controls in the event of a problem over an average one, just to give us every chance of a soft landing and survival. The economy so far has been resilient and strong enough to brush off retarding effects of this government, but if tricky times are near, we need more talent and experience at the cockpit. If the steam is running out, having this government at the controls at this time would be two bad things at the same time. 

I reckon I could pick a few boys and girls from my work place that can do better for about 90k each per year.


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## nulla nulla (29 July 2011)

Westpac had a lot of support arround the $20.50 level before falling to $20.40 just before close. Closing on $20.42 was a fairly good result, only marginaly down from yesterdays close as the u.s.a politicians continue to haggle while the world markets burn.




If they don't sort it out this week end, I can't see them getting a result by Tuesday. If left unresolved, wbc with its' larger exposure to off-shore borrowing, will likely drop a lot more.


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## alexandro (3 August 2011)

Its now 3 months duration and 22% drop from the late April peak. A rally should come.


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## nulla nulla (3 August 2011)

Yeah, we keep telling ourselves that and the share price keeps creeping lower. Just like it did from November 2007 to March 2009. Then it rallied. Hopefully this is not the start of the double dip recession.


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## nulla nulla (3 August 2011)

Yeah, we keep telling ourselves that and the share price keeps creeping lower. Just like it did from November 2007 to March 2009. Then it rallied. Hopefully this is not the start of the double dip recession.


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## nulla nulla (3 August 2011)

Must be an echo  .


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## Julia (3 August 2011)

alexandro said:


> Its now 3 months duration and 22% drop from the late April peak. A rally should come.



Should it?   Why?


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## alexandro (3 August 2011)

Good to see Julia policing this site again and again. Checking for spelling, asking questions and holding people accountable for their comments.

I do alot of thinking and research before i do a post. It is based on prior WBC behaviour. You could see today for the first time in a while some buying strength when it fell under 20. Why wouldn't you buy under 20 when many bought at 23-24-25? 

Something unexpected and favourable will make it bounce soon.


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## skc (4 August 2011)

alexandro said:


> Why wouldn't you buy under 20 when many bought at 23-24-25?
> 
> Something unexpected and favourable will make it bounce soon.




That is such fantastic logic.

Hang on... for every buyer there has to be a seller.

So why wouldn't you sell under 20 when many already sold at 23-24-25?

Something unexpected and favourable to the shorters will make it drop soon.


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## tinhat (4 August 2011)

Price $20.10
EPS $2.10 (forecast)
PE 9.95
Yield 7.46%
Yield grossed up for franking credits* ~ 10.6%

* Effective rate of return, after tax, for a super account in pension mode.

Let's assume zero EPS growth. Let's assume that return on equity stays at around the current 20% rate. Reasonable forecasts. At some point a > 10% effective dividend yield has to be a compelling argument even for a risk averse SMSF to buy shares in WBC rather than rolling over a term deposit.


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## ajjack (4 August 2011)

'Something unexpected and favorable will make it bounce soon' ... you say.

Hmmm ....... wonder what it could be, and I hope your right, but somehow
 cannot see a sudden change in WBC direction.  

Enough of the wishin' and hopin' in these threads and lets have some facts!


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## nulla nulla (4 August 2011)

tinhat said:


> Price $20.10
> EPS $2.10 (forecast)
> PE 9.95
> Yield 7.46%
> ...




It would appear that a section of the market agrees with your analysis. Westpac closed higher than it opened. Also, comparing wbc with the other three big aussie banks, wbc fell proportionaly less yesterday than the other three. 

This point is interesting in that: WBC has more overseas borrowings than the other three; WBC is seen as having more exposure to the mortgage sector in NSW than the other three and; the market (and hedge funds) has been pushing wbc down further than the other three. 

Yesterday wbc had a higher than normal turnover. Buyers appear to see wbc as the better bargain of the banks. At this point wbc has a low price earnings ratio, a good yield (dividend plus franking credits) and the long term prospects of a good capital gain when it returns to normal pricing levels.  

As always, do your own research.


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## Julia (4 August 2011)

alexandro said:


> I do alot of thinking and research before i do a post. It is based on prior WBC behaviour. You could see today for the first time in a while some buying strength when it fell under 20. Why wouldn't you buy under 20 when many bought at 23-24-25?
> 
> Something unexpected and favourable will make it bounce soon.






skc said:


> That is such fantastic logic.
> 
> Hang on... for every buyer there has to be a seller.
> 
> ...








tinhat said:


> Price $20.10
> EPS $2.10 (forecast)
> PE 9.95
> Yield 7.46%
> ...



This, plus nulla's post, is the sort of reasoning that's constructive and interesting, rather than some vague assertion that 'it has to go up'.

Tinhat, your suggestion here will be even more valid if interest rates start to drop, as is looking possible.   But even then, it's (for me, anyway) difficult to accept the continuing diminution of capital if the downtrend continues as reasonable exchange for the very good yield.  

How do you weigh up these essentially opposing considerations?



ajjack said:


> 'Something unexpected and favorable will make it bounce soon' ... you say.
> 
> Hmmm ....... wonder what it could be, and I hope your right, but somehow
> cannot see a sudden change in WBC direction.
> ...



Thanks, aijack, that's the point I was trying to make.


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## Ves (4 August 2011)

More importantly is the current dividend sustainable? Otherwise this could turn into the classic "yield trap."

I am no expert, but would it take a GFC II or a housing market crash for the banks to cut their dividend?


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## oldblue (4 August 2011)

Ves said:


> More importantly is the current dividend sustainable? Otherwise this could turn into the classic "yield trap."
> 
> I am no expert, but would it take a GFC II or a housing market crash for the banks to cut their dividend?




Most banks did reduce their dividends as a result of GFC but have grown them again since. Certainly, the same could happen again.

No guarantees of course but unlikely IMO to become yield traps in the usual sense, ie where earnings collapse more or less permanently.


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## Ves (4 August 2011)

The only other "risk" in such a yield play is that the dividend stays the same for an extended period of time and gets eaten away by inflation.

I am seriously considering growing my holdings in the banks at these levels though. But I will wait a few weeks to see what they do price wise. The charts point to an even higher yield / lower price at this point in time.


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## UMike (4 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> It would appear that a section of the market agrees with your analysis. Westpac closed higher than it opened. Also, comparing wbc with the other three big aussie banks, wbc fell proportionaly less yesterday than the other three.
> 
> This point is interesting in that: WBC has more overseas borrowings than the other three; WBC is seen as having more exposure to the mortgage sector in NSW than the other three and; the market (and hedge funds) has been pushing wbc down further than the other three.
> 
> ...




Well I just got 1000 @19.75 .....

Hope there is good US jobs data.


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## nulla nulla (5 August 2011)

UMike said:


> Well I just got 1000 @19.75 .....
> 
> Hope there is good US jobs data.




It is going to get cheaper today. Panic hit the djia, ftse and the dax last night and our xao will follow suite today. Finance shares such as wbc will likely drop another 2% plus. Hope I'm wrong.


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## alexandro (9 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Should it?   Why?




Finally a Japanese reversal candlestick and a bounce. I was 4 trading days late but it came. And at least I was one person who mentioned numbers like $20, $19 and then $17.50 in that order in previous recent posts. The unexpected and favourable? We'll it was the cut in interest rates where every man was talking rising rates. A QE3 is also on the cards now.

Julia, check spelling and make comments please. Or are you cranky again?


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## nulla nulla (9 August 2011)

Strong support on good volumes. Would like to see the share price start to recover from here. However, wbc is not out of the woods yet and more stability is needed in the international markets. 





Notwithstanding, wbc is incredibly good value at this level and it would take a massive increase in the cost of funding, combined with rising interest rates and massive mortgage defaults for wbc to lose it's way. IMO.


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## Julia (9 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Notwithstanding, wbc is incredibly good value at this level and it would take a massive increase in the cost of funding, combined with rising interest rates and massive mortgage defaults for wbc to lose it's way. IMO.



Agree.  Given the apparent likelihood of falling deposit rates on online at call accounts, I'm close to being persuaded back into WBC.  Grossed up div is very good.

Nulla, what are your thoughts about CBA?


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## nulla nulla (10 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Agree.  Given the apparent likelihood of falling deposit rates on online at call accounts, I'm close to being persuaded back into WBC.  Grossed up div is very good.
> 
> Nulla, what are your thoughts about CBA?




Hi Julia

I have thrown an update post in the CBA thread. If I had been cashed up yesterday I would have bought in the downward spike.


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## fanger (11 August 2011)

I picked this up the other day around $18.25 I couldn't resist the yeild at that price.


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## nulla nulla (11 August 2011)

fanger said:


> I picked this up the other day around $18.25 I couldn't resist the yeild at that price.




Good on you. At todays high of $20.52 (roughly 12:30pm) you have a capital gain of $2.27 or 12.44%.


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## kid hustlr (11 August 2011)

I really like Julia's and nulla's thoughts. WBC does look inviting imo but I'm hesitant to dive head first given the current craziness of the markets. I'll most likely take the newbie wait and see approach and then re-assess in a month or so. If I miss the boat, so be it.


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## Julia (11 August 2011)

kid hustlr said:


> I really like Julia's and nulla's thoughts. WBC does look inviting imo but I'm hesitant to dive head first given the current craziness of the markets. I'll most likely take the newbie wait and see approach and then re-assess in a month or so. If I miss the boat, so be it.




Sensible approach.  The market will always be there.  And, given the global mess, this volatility will also be there for a while to come.


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## Muschu (11 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Sensible approach.  The market will always be there.  And, given the global mess, this volatility will also be there for a while to come.




Hi Julia

I agree -- although maybe there is a case for having a toe in the water rather than a foot out of it?

Basically it is a game...  A relative phoned me today and said he might go back into race horses as a less risky alternative....


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## nulla nulla (12 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Hi Julia
> 
> I agree -- although maybe there is a case for having a toe in the water rather than a foot out of it?
> 
> Basically it is a game...  A relative phoned me today and said he might go back into race horses as a less risky alternative....




As an owner, trainer, jockey or punter? 
As a punter you plunk your money down and either win or do the lot. As a share investor you get to pull your capital out with a small profit or a small loss. At least you don't do the lot.


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## blue0810 (12 August 2011)

Share trade is  a tough  game.  Like any other  game you need to know how to play it.


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## nulla nulla (12 August 2011)

Nice bounce of the interday low off $17.84 on panic Tuesday. Started well today at $20.75 then drifted steadily down to the low of $20.31. Strong support in the closing auction saw the price recover a little to $20.47. 

Banks generally did not do well today. Internationaly there were some big sell downs overnight and the aussie banks seemed to get caught up in it today. International Hedge funds are alleged to be shorting banks in anticipation of another credit squeeze. 

The local Bank reporting season is underway and I expect wbc to post a larger profit than before probably with a low key forecast reflecting the tight conditions we are living in. Don't be surprised if the analysts say it is not good enough and start another sell down.


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## oldblue (13 August 2011)

> The local Bank reporting season is underway




Not quite

CBA is the odd man out with a June balance date. The other three of the four pillars don't count the cash until 30 September and will report mid to late October.

WBC still a good punt though, IMO.


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## nulla nulla (13 August 2011)

oldblue said:


> Not quite
> 
> CBA is the odd man out with a June balance date. The other three of the four pillars don't count the cash until 30 September and will report mid to late October.
> 
> WBC still a good punt though, IMO.




lol. would you believe it is a long reporting season?


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## nulla nulla (16 August 2011)

Westpac is due to provide a quarterly update today. Should be interesting.


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## blue0810 (16 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Westpac is due to provide a quarterly update today. Should be interesting.




No good News -> WBC  -4.00% so far.


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## notting (16 August 2011)

Maquarie thought it was on par.


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## notting (16 August 2011)

Good day of discounting today. 
Might take a big bite in the morning if markets are soft tonight.  

Amazing how the press have managed to flavor the current bounce as being positive expectations from the meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel.

Setting it all up for another thrashing.  

What is anyone expecting from that meeting accept flimsy share holders thinking some miracle is about to occurr or not occur.

7 used to run the line "First we *make* the news, then we break the news."

Hay will be made.


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## nulla nulla (17 August 2011)

An overview of the report from *Westpac* by "*Eric Johnston*" in todays Sydney Morning Herald "*Business Day*" is worth a read at the following link.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/westpac-counts-profit-cuts-staff-20110816-1iwex.html

While their income is down for the last quarter (you would think it would be a given, having a slow down in income if people are cutting borrowing and increasing savings) their full year profit is on track for another record $6.54 billion, only $300 million less than their juggernaut rival the CBA.

Naturally, the market (including the friendly international hedge funds) pushed the price down ridiculous levels. Bloody funny if you ask me. WBC is on track to post a record $6.54 billion profit and the market is saying "That is less than expected" and sells the share price down toward March 2009 GFC levels.

And of course the fully franked dividend/yield just gets better and better.


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## oldblue (17 August 2011)

I don't think it's got much to do with WBC.

More a case of market nervousness and holders taking the opportunity to sell on what they hoped would be a relatively firm market following a good report, ie what the brokers call "profit taking".


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## kid hustlr (19 August 2011)

A couple of heavy days and its not impossible for WBC to hit that $18.00 mark again.

Nulla, any changes of opinion given the recent profit announcements of Westpac on your long term view of this?


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## alexandro (25 August 2011)

Market is at a pivot point. Top big caps CBA, WBC and BHP have moved back up to the 20 day moving average from recent plunges and pullbacks. In the next 1-2 days, it’s either a strong move up (starting a rally) or the down trend resumes. It can be either at equal chance but owing to that huge reversal 2 weeks ago, the stance and posture on the charts look to the upside. I don’t see reason for the downtrend to continue at this time. The market has already gone through in the past 4 weeks and completed its shock for now. All in stages.


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## nulla nulla (25 August 2011)

kid hustlr said:


> A couple of heavy days and its not impossible for WBC to hit that $18.00 mark again.
> 
> Nulla, any changes of opinion given the recent profit announcements of Westpac on your long term view of this?




No change of opinion. IMO Market sentiment is trying to push wbc down below realistic values. All we can do about it is trade the opportunities when we see them and are cashed up.


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## nulla nulla (1 September 2011)

The share price trend suggests thay wbc is tapping the upper channel bar. If it can break above $21.00 and stay there it may start to improve to where it realisticaly (IMO) belongs, $22.50+.





However the MACD suggests the price is gapping upward from the moving average. How long can wbc sustain this?




The RSI suggest that wbc is moving into "oversold" territory. No doubt the "herd" that follows these indicators will start to bail out and push the share price back down making the charts self-fulfilling, or will they?




As always. DYOR & goodluck.   Maybe volumes are the key?


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## nulla nulla (14 September 2011)

Two weeks ago the market had to make a decision. Could wbc run up higher or was it due to retrace from the top of the downward channel. Well the market bailed and wbc tracked down to the bottom of the channel arriving there at close today.




Now the market has to make another decision. Is it time for wbc to bounce or is it going to trend further down and breakout below the channel line?

You tell me. I thought wbc was good value at $21.50, even better at $20.50, amazing at $19.50 and will probably be incredible at $18.50, $17.50 and $16.50.


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## alexandro (21 September 2011)

In the past when the ASX has taken a sudden and significant fall, as was the case in the week of 9 August, it has bounced back up just as quick but only to return to the same lows and even lower in the weeks ahead. It was only then that a rally of some substance started.

The decline of the ASX since its April highs has had no significant relief rally yet (something lasting more than 6 weeks. There has been small and short bounces enough to propel WBC a maximum of $2 but nothing more.

Although a revisit to 9 August lows is possible, I feel a rally of the ASX back to around at least 4600 is coming. 1. Based on the absence of such a rally so far, after a 700-800 pts fall of the ASX and 2. Markets usually do well November to January (time is right).

If a revisit and re test of 9 August is going to happen, it should happen inside of the next 2 weeks. If not, then the relief rally should start, taking WBC back to at least 21.60 - $22.

This is not the time to be too pessimistic. The price of WBC with fear priced in is cheap at under $20, the price without fear is too expensive at $22+.


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## nulla nulla (22 September 2011)

Two days after my last post wbc surged up to midway in the channel. However the next five days has seen wbc return to the bottom of the channel. The driving negative factors being the expected credit squeeze as a result of the European sovereign debt crisis and the ongoing debacle between the Democrats and the Republicans in the U.S.

There was a good article in the S.M.H in respect of the exposure of Australian Banks to the sovereign debt of Greece (Minimal) and Italy (much the same) so it appears much of the negativity is the international hedge funds gambling on the forthcomming Australian Property Market collapse (don't hold your breath).

Meanwhile, wbc is again testing the bottom of the channel. Your call. Do you think it is about to break out, downwards? Or is wbc ready for another bounce?  DYOR.


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## alexandro (25 September 2011)

If we had spent the 5 minutes to put a simple ruler up against the screen during 2007, we would have seen the credit fuelled deviation from the natural 27 year growth trend of Australian shares and the correction to come. 

Going by historical corrections (or over-corrections), looks like we have some way to go yet. It looks like XAO (All Ords) to 3700 or 3800 if we are lucky.

But in fact, the long term growth trend suggests the XAO has already gone too far down and we should be at 4600 right now.

It means the correction is going to take its course regardless of undervalue and the overcorrection. It means that if you simply ignore everything thats happening and hold at these levels, the price will come back and you will be ok. 

It just means you were late and missed the bus and the bus will just take time to go around and come back to pick you up.


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## skc (25 September 2011)

alexandro said:


> If we had spent the 5 minutes to put a simple ruler up against the screen during 2007, we would have seen the credit fuelled deviation from the natural 27 year growth trend of Australian shares and the correction to come.
> 
> Going by historical corrections (or over-corrections), looks like we have some way to go yet. It looks like XAO (All Ords) to 3700 or 3800 if we are lucky.
> 
> ...




Over such long periods and change in pts value a log scale is may be more appropriate?


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## craft (26 September 2011)

skc said:


> Over such long periods and change in pts value a log scale is may be more appropriate?




Starting dates can also distort the picture – best to draw conclusions from as long a period as possible.


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## nulla nulla (27 September 2011)

Financials rallied hard today, wbc up 5%. Looked like a few shorters may have elected to close out their positions and lock in profit rather than risk it all on the outcome of the G20 actually being able to get their act together.

wbc is still tracking in the sideways/downward channel. I wouldn't get to confident yet that it has turned arround and will head for blue skies. Dropped two parcels today (picked up at $18.87 and $18.84) and will watch for any retrace / re-entry oportunities.


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## alexandro (8 October 2011)

I'm happy with that as being a decent rally. It gave plenty of chance for all to purchase at around $19, then sell at around $21. A $2.00 trade. 

Buy 60,000 of them around 21-23 September (the days of my post) and sell on 7 October to collect 120k and take a few years off travelling, having sex and eating seafood.


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## alexandro (8 October 2011)

Cancer preventative or offsetting, life extending activities.


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## nulla nulla (8 October 2011)

alexandro said:


> I'm happy with that as being a decent rally. It gave plenty of chance for all to purchase at around $19, then sell at around $21. A $2.00 trade.
> 
> Buy 60,000 of them around 21-23 September (the days of my post) and sell on 7 October to collect 120k and take a few years off travelling, having sex and eating seafood.




I dont think everyone has $1.2 millon to invest in one share for a two week trade. I could have a decent holiday on the brokerage alone.


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## nulla nulla (8 October 2011)

For the moment wbc appears to have broken out of the downward channel. The next level of resistance appears to be $21.60 and then $22.24. wbc will go exdiv next month so there is every possibility that it will creep upwards on low volumes. Naturally a lot of holders will be trading any runup selling into the rises along with long term holders choosing to get out at the better price levels. Others may be trying to buy in for the div.




The MACD chart shows wbc starting to gap up from the moving average and (imo) the volumes pushing the price up suggest there could be a few days more appreciation to 
come.




However, the RSI chart shows that wbc is moving into overbought teritory and it could easily become a sell off. The moving average does appear to have turned upwards. If it can continue a slow climb the rsi may hold at these levels and the spike/sell off be averted. 




In this market it is a hard call. Do you buy in looking for the div (and franking credit), Do you trade the swings and forget any long term prospects or do you try a bit of both. DYOR & goodluck


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## alexandro (21 October 2011)

Trade the bitch. Watch the Stochastics and MACD. Buy low sell high. Get that right and the dividend doesn't matter.


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## nulla nulla (22 October 2011)

WBC tested $22.00 early in the week but fell back Thursday and Friday to close on $21.50 after all the negativity coming out of Europe. With the euphoric surge on European and the U.S markets ovenight (with the djia closing on a two month high) we should realistically expect to see wbc move above $22.00 next week and test the next resistance level of $22.30 then onwards and upwards to $23.07. 





The MACD chart shows the moving average closing the gap up to the share price rather than the share price retracing down to the average, suggesting wbc has bounced and is consolidating.




The RSI chart shows the moving average also closing the gap up to the share price and the share price consolidating barely in the overbought area. Volumes are slightly below average indicating some of the panic influence on turnover may have eased off.




wbc is due to declare their dividend next week and to go ex-div on 4/11/11. This should encourage a modest run-up of the share price before it goes exdiv. All in all, if the crap out of Europe settles for a week or so I expect wbc to improve significantly. Then again, if it falls back it will present yet another opportunity to trade. As always dyor


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## tothemax6 (22 October 2011)

alexandro said:


> Trade the bitch. Watch the Stochastics and MACD. Buy low sell high. Get that right and the dividend doesn't matter.



Lol, thats one way of putting it .


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## nulla nulla (29 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> All in all, if the crap out of Europe settles for a week or so I expect wbc to improve significantly. Then again, if it falls back it will present yet another opportunity to trade. As always dyor




Beyond all my expectations wbc shrugged off the doom and gloomers and busted out of the downward sideways channel. The Euro rescue (still in the making), the close out of Octobers Options coinciding with the ASX crash, the likelihood of there being no interest rate cut coupling with the resurgence of the Aud$ and wbc suddenly became a must have stock.




Pity it opened at $23.50 on Friday then went south steadily all day. It sure looked good and provided an opportunity for anyone looking to lock in profits from purchasing in the recent lows. 

wbc is due to announce their results and dividend next week. If they are anything like nab's, wbc should retest the $23.50+ range before going exdiv.

If they are not better then analyst expectations, the journey south will probably continue.


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## nulla nulla (6 November 2011)

Mr Bill Moss, Chief Economist at Westpac has demonstrated why he is the Chief Economist at Wespac by being the only person to correctly predict that the next interest rate move would be down. He copped a bagging from the other know-it-all economists at the time but has subsequently been proven to be right on the money (or interest rates as it were).

The annual results are out and the div continues to sneak higher. However, once again the analysts bagged the record result. It would seem that record results and increased dividends (fully franked) in tough times and plans to maintain the results going forward are simply not good enough for the experts.

The surge in the share price was short lived and quickly retraced to $21.00 during the week, before it rallied over $22.00 prior to the Ex-div close-off on Friday. Naturaly the share price will drop by the div and franking credit and probably open arround the $21.00 on Monday. 




While I personaly feel wbc has bounced of the recent $18.00 lows and is starting a slow climb back toward $23 - $24, the lack of cohesive direction in Europe is likely to mean the journey will be slow and subject to more volitilty. I will be watching for the re-entry points and locking in any profits in the spikes. Obviously I could be completely wrong and the share price retest the low $18 - $19 range, after all I'm no Bill Moss. As always dyor and good luck.


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## boofhead (6 November 2011)

Are you sure it is Bill Moss of Westpac? I was thinking it could have been Bill Evans that features on the last afternoon news.


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## nulla nulla (6 November 2011)

You are correct, I should have said Bill Evans. I don't why I thought his name was Moss. At least I got the part of his being the Cheif Economist at Westpac correct.   Moss was at Macquarie.


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## nulla nulla (12 November 2011)

As expected wbc fell to $21.02 after going exdiv last monday then rallied to $21.56 on Wednesday. The Euro (Italy) sovereign debt hysteria sent the global markets into a nose dive on Wednesday night and Thursday trading (our time) saw wbc get slapped back down to $20.65. 

Following the interday lows from 11 October 2011 across 02 November 2011, I was looking for support in the $20.60 area and saw $20.67 as a viable (for me anway) entry point. Our market rally/consolidation on Friday combined with the rebound in Europe and The U.S.A last night should see further gains in our financials on Monday. 




Now we need to monitor whether wbc is starting another downward channel with the next resistance levels arround $21.60 then $22.00 or whether the share price can continue the upward channel started arround 09 August 2011 and break above $22.80. As always dyor


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## nulla nulla (20 November 2011)

Started well in the Monday open and for a few minutes it looked like wbc was going to continue to climb. But it wasn't to be. WBC trended steadily down all day. The news out of Europe was all negative: Escalating bond rates; Political strife in Italy and Greece; Riots; and a major rift opening up between France and Germany as to how things can or can't be fixed.

wbc tracked down for the rest of the week breaking past the $20.60 - $20.70 level, which appeared to have been a resistance level previously and could have been a support level now. The International market closes on Friday were uninspiring and it wouldn't surprise me to see wbc test the lower channel price levels of $19.80 - $20.00 this week. If the share price can't recover from there the next support level is $18.60. 




At these levels (imo) wbc is providing excellent returns through fully franked dividends. Hard to pass up as a buy for the SMSF for those with longer term confidence.


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## nulla nulla (26 November 2011)

There hasn't been any good news out of Europe as the sovereign debt issues continue and the lack of agreement between the Europen governments as to how to address the problems emphasise the seriousness of the situation. The likelihood of a major international credit squeeze increases. 

WBC continued the share price slide through the lower channel support line of $19.80 testing $19.29 on Friday before a small rally into the close finishing on $19.50. This was a tenuous support level on September 6th. The MACD chart indicates the share price is gapping down significantly from the moving average. The RSI shows the share price deep into the oversold area. Recent volumes are only slightly higher as those jumping ship tussle with the bargain hunters. 




The ftse recovered 37 points last night and the dax 64 points however the djia has been unable to hold the surge of arround 100 points and has drifted back steadily to be down 27 points at close. 

IMO monday isn't looking good. If wbc can't hold or rally from here the next support levels are the interday lows of September 23, $18.61 and August 9th, $17.94. After that the support levels are back in March 2009 territory.


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## alexandro (28 November 2011)

Stochastics, MACD and RSI were all looking good on Friday 25th. Indicating a better entry point than any other time in the past 6 weeks. It was the time to go in heavy at under 19.50. The price behaviour on WBC is saying, "you don't have to hold me too long, just buy me when I am down under $20 and $19.50".


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## nulla nulla (3 December 2011)

alexandro said:


> Stochastics, MACD and RSI were all looking good on Friday 25th. Indicating a better entry point than any other time in the past 6 weeks. It was the time to go in heavy at under 19.50. The price behaviour on WBC is saying, "you don't have to hold me too long, just buy me when I am down under $20 and $19.50".




Well you are in the money. 

WBC bounced off the tenative support level of $19.50 ratcheting upward throughout the week on mixed news out of Europe. On thursday the European news was better with Central Banks indicating they would buy Government bonds. 

Then, on friday, Standard & Poors published their revised manner of assessing global banks. Although the Australian big 4 were revised from AA to AA- it was spelt out by Standard & Poor (and the banks) that this was not a downgrade. 

The banks climbed steadily on Friday, after the release regarding the revised grading, then came the news that the U.S.A unemployment figures were better than expected. The rally in the last hour pushed wbc up to $21.45 then the closing auction saw wbc jump to close on $21.57.




Where too from here? The next levels of ressistance appear to be in the $22.00 - $22.20 area. If wbc can push through these barriers, the real challenge will be $23.60. Early christmas present or will we see a reality check and a retrace?


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## nulla nulla (16 December 2011)

$21.80 turned into a resistance point, then Europe imploded and wbc headed southwards. Considered as having the highest reliance of all Australian banks on overseas funding wbc paid the penalty and was savaged more so than the other 3 members of the big 4 Aussie banks.




The only glimmer of hope is that wbc held today improving to close a few cents better. Hopefully this level will prove a support point and wbc will improve upwards from this lower channel level. If it fails then the next support level is $19.50.


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## nulla nulla (7 January 2012)

Europe, the Christmas/New Year break, and fear of an international credit squeeze appear to have undermined confidence in the Australian banking sector with share price stuck at mid December levels.

wbc, as always, seems to get hit hardest of the big 4's in a retrace no matter how big the record profits are each year. The share price is barely above the lows of March 2009. 
The only good thing, in the weak trading since 16 December 2011, is that wbc seems to be finding support arround the $20.00 mark. With good dividends and franking credits, wbc is returning almost 10% per annum which is better than bank deposit interest rate and bonds.




Only question you need to ask yourself is "Will the share price go lower and present even better rates of return?"


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## yarrabah (8 January 2012)

Thanks Nulla Nulla. I bought WBC in March 2009 and have dividends reinvested. Barely look at but now the reinvested dividends make up 25% of my holding. Would like to see SP higher but happy that is compounding at a low SP as it will kick off when things settle down (whenever that is). Their growth is quite good and they have improved their attitude towards customers. Thanks for the charts & words.


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## nulla nulla (21 January 2012)

The six month chart makes it look like wbc may have finally turned arround. If wbc can hold above the lower green channel line there is every chance it can move progressively upwards as it moves sideways. Still making excellent profits and paying dividends that are yielding returns (particularly with franking credits) that work out higher than bank interest rates.




The only problem is, the 12 month chart paints a gloomier picture and suggests that wbc needs to break through and hold above $21.50. All the post xmas talk of the pottential for a GFC2 isn't helping banks. The XAO may be forging slowly back above 4300 but I think we will need stability and some recovery in the banking sector to see it break above 4500.


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## notting (21 January 2012)

Probably the best buy on earth, all things balanced and considered, especially if you were buying today below 20.40 where it offered itself momentarily in a very nice manner.  
That was just today however. Could be some more buying opps coming up.

US Markets are trying to grind higher despite being close to the top of the range.
It's hard to see how they will break out during an election year which will create uncertainty.  
There are also some dickheads who are starting to talk up QE3 for the coming Fed meeting in two weeks.  This could create another bust scenario when the Fed does nothing of the sort. 
So as the chart above confirms, more buying to come which I am very very happy about!!


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## theartglasshouse (21 January 2012)

Do you see a possible entry point around the $19.50 mark in the next 2 months? I have set aside some has to buy some WBC and I have been watching it off late. Am hoping to get buy some ASAP but would like to get in sub $20. I like the look of WBC and think it is undervalued in my opinion. This will be a long term hold for me as the dividends attract and the price is good for one the big 4. 

Still practising charting so not very good at it at the moment.


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## nulla nulla (21 January 2012)

theartglasshouse said:


> Do you see a possible entry point around the $19.50 mark in the next 2 months? I have set aside some has to buy some WBC and I have been watching it off late. Am hoping to get buy some ASAP but would like to get in sub $20. I like the look of WBC and think it is undervalued in my opinion. This will be a long term hold for me as the dividends attract and the price is good for one the big 4.
> 
> Still practising charting so not very good at it at the moment.




If it drops through $20.20 it is capable of going down to $19.50 although recent activity suggests that there is support arround the $20.00 mark (Double bottom of $19.94 on December 19, 2011 and January 9, 2012.) 

With the present volitilty it is capable of anything, you might be lucky.


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## theartglasshouse (21 January 2012)

Thanks Nulla, I will be keeping an eye on this one and might hold off at the moment and see if I can get a lower entry price. Even around $20 I would be happy with.


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## notting (21 January 2012)

If your in for the long term One thing that is also interesting is that if you look at a monthly chart, it has never dipped below the oversold 20 line in a slow stochastic three times in a row before heading up to overbaught 80.
It double dipped during GFC part 1 (which was a first) and has just double dipped again over Christmas and has started to climb out but is back tracking just at the moment.

I interperate that as a long term probability buy because it's never tripple dipped on the slow stochastic monthly.


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## notting (21 January 2012)

That last post is bugging me.
You could have said it had never double dipped up to the GFC there for would not then.
If we are the new Japan, the lost decade is still in it's early sages.
The size of the debts would make you think so.
No rush *I guess*!
Buff would he has B of A.!


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## nulla nulla (26 January 2012)

Three days of interesting news;

1. A tick of approval from the IMF for the strength of our local banks tempered with a word of caution about exposure to domestic mortgages and small business loans;
2. The "State of the Union" address by Barrak Obahma and the report of the U.S Fed that their interest rates would stay low until late 2014;
3. The inflation report being lower than expected suggesting that the Reserve Bank would drop interest rates by another 25 points on 9 February 2012 (with the possibility of another rate cut in March if banks don't pass on the full cut in February); and
4. The probability that the big 4 banks won't pass on the full rate cut in February (and March) maintaining their profit margins.





And the banks led by Westpac had an early Australia Day celebration. At $21.43 wbc was up 4% for the day. Closing on $21.30 wbc finished the day up 3.5% on the previous days close. The chart shows wbc edging closer to the top edge of the longer term downtrend channel. If it can break through the $21.50 level the next resistance points are $21.80 then $23.10.

The downside is a reversal within the pennant to retest the lower levels of $20.00.


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## nulla nulla (18 February 2012)

Holding for the break out above $21.20 finaly paid off with wbc testing $21.59 before the Greek debacle (and riots) pulled the finance sector back. Re-entry for short term trades between $20.82 and $21.23 (quick in and out, no confidence in holding until the Greek bailout funds are finaly released).

Then the market took a negative view of the first quarter result. Due to an impairment of $200m wbc, only acheived a quarterly profit of $1.5 billion instead of $1.55 billion. The market reacted with a vengence and pushed the share price down to $20.02 (re-entry for all those punters looking for the low $20's?).




Having broken through the lower channel line it will be interesting to see whether wbc can bounce from this level or will continue to fall. Wierd reaction in my opinion. Still on track for a profit in excess of $6 billion, paying a fully franked dividend which equates close to a 10% yield and the market is trying to push the price down to sub gfc levels.
Go figure, eh.


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## notting (18 February 2012)

It is a a little imponderable. It tends to lag a bit then bounce hard to catch the others. 
However it's been unduely spanked a few times rcently which is a little unerving. Market is trying to tell us something that we haven't figured, I guess.

CBAs price action leading into its dividend is also a concern but understandable after WBCs little miss. I don't like the look of the new guy running CBA. Hasn't got that stately quality and looks a little reactive.

If Euraland dissapoints, this Week could be a dark one.


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## McLovin (5 March 2012)

I got the WBC CPS prospectus this morning. There's an interesting chart showing the cost of the various convertible/hybrid notes WBC has issued. Back in 2006 the TPS securities were issued at a 1% margin above the 90 day BB. In 2008, just before things started to get really bad, they issued at 2.4% above 90 day rate. In 2009, when things were really bad, they issued at 3.80% above the 90 rate. The current offer is 3.25% above the 180 day rate. The spread on the 90/180 rate is about 10 basis points, so ~3.35% if they were using the 90 day rate. That gives a grossed up yield of about ~7.8%. When you consider what they are lending money at, times must be tough.


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## skc (5 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> I got the WBC CPS prospectus this morning. There's an interesting chart showing the cost of the various convertible/hybrid notes WBC has issued. Back in 2006 the TPS securities were issued at a 1% margin above the 90 day BB. In 2008, just before things started to get really bad, they issued at 2.4% above 90 day rate. In 2009, when things were really bad, they issued at 3.80% above the 90 rate. The current offer is 3.25% above the 180 day rate. The spread on the 90/180 rate is about 10 basis points, so ~3.35% if they were using the 90 day rate. That gives a grossed up yield of about ~7.8%. When you consider what they are lending money at, times must be tough.




Love these hybrids at the moment. "Equity-like risk coupled with debt-like return" was the best summary I've read.


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## Knobby22 (5 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> I . That gives a grossed up yield of about ~7.8%. When you consider what they are lending money at, times must be tough.




Naah, this money is for personal loans, business loans etc.
I was talking to a banker last week and he said yields were good even better in the pacific. Said there was no real competition.


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## McLovin (5 March 2012)

skc said:


> Love these hybrids at the moment. "Equity-like risk coupled with debt-like return" was the best summary I've read.




Good summation really.

It's just a shame we don't have a corporate debt market like in the US. Instead we are stuck with these pigs wearing lipstick!


			
				knobby22 said:
			
		

> Naah, this money is for personal loans, business loans etc.
> I was talking to a banker last week and he said yields were good even better in the pacific. Said there was no real competition.




Why not just raise straight up equity then, or debt, if it can done cheaper. I might have a dig around for the answer but I assume, for capital reserve requirements, this stuff is treated as equity?


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## McLovin (5 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> Good summation really.




When you think about it a bit more it's even more of a sucker product. Presumably, WBC is wanting to ensure it has good access to debt markets by making sure its Tier 1 Capital looks strong. Solution: Get some grey nomads in to buy something that is probably sold to them by their advisers as being "a bit more stable than the shares". All they are really doing is providing bondholders with additional security, without diluting common equity.

Maybe I'm being a bit too cynical.


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## nulla nulla (6 March 2012)

These products are aimed at the buy/hold set/forget investors. Investors trading the current volitilty wouldn't be interested in locking their capital in for a relatively low fixed income over such a long period.


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## nulla nulla (6 March 2012)

WBC has been steadily reducing the level of reliance on overseas funding, building up the Tier 1 liquidity through notes, convertable preferences etc. They continue to squeze their costs to protect their margins in a period of reducing loans and lower interest rates and they are on track to deliver another record profit.




The chart over the past year shows wbc has turned arround and presently appears to be tracking the bottom bar of an upward channel. Maybe it is viable for the long term holders looking for a run up back over $24.00+, maybe not. However the trade opportunities in the volitility are certainly there for the stout hearted or mad.  As always dyor.


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## blue0810 (6 March 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> These products are aimed at the buy/hold set/forget investors. Investors trading the current volitilty wouldn't be interested in locking their capital in for a relatively low fixed income over such a long period.





So many Hybrid/Notes   has been offering at  the moment .

The myth about mutant stocks- SMH2 6/02/1012
http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/the-myth-about-mutant-stocks-20120225-1tuln.html

ASIC alert on hybrid issues by banks SMH 02/03/2012
http://www.smh.com.au/business/asic-alert-on-hybrid-issues-by-banks-20120301-1u5w3.html


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## nulla nulla (6 March 2012)

I thought todays drop flowing on from the Reserve Bank leaving interest rates on hold was an over-reaction. Stevens had already telegraphed his concerns about the two speed economy and advised you can't meddle with the whole economy to tighten the reins on one sector without impacting adversely on the other sector.
There was never going to be any change and this should have already been factored into the bank share prices.  Right or wrong, I bought in at $20.62. If it drops low enough I will accumulate some more.


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## nulla nulla (17 March 2012)

The share price dropped lower and looked like it might be going to break out downwards on the delays and uncertainty of the Greek bailout. Then the bailout was approved and now the funds have started flowing into Greece (never mind the hair cuts some of the Greek Bond holders were forced to take). 

WBC has now broken through the upper pennant level but has a long way to go to break above recent resistance levels at $21.40 then $22.00.  Expect more volitility as the European focus shifts to Portugal and Italy. If wbc can't continue the upward run, don't be surprised to see a retrace to the $20.50 area




On the upside, wbc has been reducing its' reliance on overseas funding for mortgages, tightening lending policies and shifting jobs off-shore. The record profit margins appear to be being maintained by whatever means it takes.


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## nulla nulla (24 March 2012)

Since the low point in August 2011 wbc has tracked sideways and painfully slow upwards. Once again wbc is headbutting the resistance point of $21.40. This time, with the news that offshore funding has been getting lower for the last 6-8 weeks, there is more likelihood of an upward breakout.




The next resistance level is arround $21.75. It would not surpise me to see this passed as there is a dividend announcement due in May and the dividend punters will be starting to acquire, allowing for the 45 day holding rule to get the franking entitlement.


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## nulla nulla (1 April 2012)

Westpac broke through the resistance level of $21.47 last week but then spent three days head butting the $22.00 level. Just as the news was filtering into the market that the banks off shore funding is cheaper than they have been letting on, an analyst pops his head up and reminds everyone that the greek situation is far from resolved. All the green shoots in the U.S.A can't offset their trillions of dollars in deficit and the chinese economic growth rate is slowing to 8.5% (lol). 




wbc appears to have broken out upwards from the long term pennant and is moving sideways and upwards in a new channel.  Seems likely that wbc will continue to improve but at a rate close to that of drying paint and no doubt with plenty of volitilty.


----------



## nulla nulla (5 May 2012)

Since the end of March 2012 wbc has broken through the 6/12/2012 resistance level of $21.78 and last week challenged the 27/10/2011 resistance level of $23.10, hitting $23.08 before dropping back to close on Friday at $22.91.

The ever increasing billion dollar profit announcement this week exceeded analyst expectations, however the bigger profit, encouraging reprt from Ms Kelly and fully franked dividend of $0.82 cps were not enough to boost wbc above the $23.00 mark. Mind you the fact that wbc held on to the close of $22.91 on thursday and friday was encouraging given the market dropped 35 points on friday. Going forward wbc appears to be taking steps to protect the profit levels despite a challenging environment.




A word of caution for punters. The run up of wbc since the share price broke out of the sideways pennant on or about 12/03/2012 will roughly coincide with the 45 clear days requirement for investors to qualify for the franking cedit entitlement when the share goes exdiv on 14/05/2012 (where their cumulative franking credits are more than $5,000). After allowing for the div of $0.82 and the franking component their isn't a lot of fat in the share price movement since mid march. 

Whether wbc can go any higher now before going exdiv will be interesting to see. No doubt wbc will dip after going ex-div however if wbc can rebound and break through the resistance level of $23.10, the next (recent) level of resistance is the peak of $25.60 of 27/04/2011. Now that would be good. LOL. As always do your own research.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 May 2012)

The wbc share price didn't go higher before going exdiv. In fact it peaked at $23.08 then dropped back to $22.72 before going exdiv. This was pretty good with the Gail Kelly press coverage offsetting some of the fallout from the French and Greek election headlines. The share price dropped back to $22.00 after going exdiv, then the french & greek elections fallout kicked and the share price along with the xao went into free fall. wbc closed yesterday on $21.41 after hitting $21.14 interday.




The XAO has fallen 10% in 12 trading days however the wbc share price (adjusted for the dividend and franking) has only fallen 6-7% (but did it in 5 trading days having held up for a week leading up to the exdiv date). 

Resources have fallen harder and it would appear that, while some investors are panicking and getting out of the market, other investors are moving to the banks, telstra and some reits seeking comfort & security in the higher yields and lower p/e ratios. 

Question is, will it bounce from here or are we going to see wbc test $18.50 and lower?


----------



## nulla nulla (9 June 2012)

Holders are probably thankful that the share price has not fallen to the September 2011 $18.60 lows. Recently there appears to be support for wbc arround the $20.00 mark with resistance arround the $20.80 level.




Personally I think it is stupid that wbc can get slapped down to a level where it has a yield of arround 11% (including franking) and continues to make record profits year in, year out. I admit it, I bought this week. Topped up my SMSF holding and Personal holding. If it dips again I will likely hold for a longer trade as, imo, the upside risk is better than the downside risk. From this point the share price has a buffer underwritten by the yield. As always d.y.o.r.


----------



## peter2 (10 June 2012)

GG would you please ask the ASX to fix the annoying bad data on the WBC chart (29/5/12). I would ask them myself only it seems you have the direct line to our market supervisor. (STO thread)

The high of the day has been incorrectly recorded as 22.52. It seems like it was just made up after a trade crossed above 26 (outside the market range guidelines).  This bad data is a blight on both the daily and weekly charts.


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 June 2012)

peter2 said:


> GG would you please ask the ASX to fix the annoying bad data on the WBC chart (29/5/12). I would ask them myself only it seems you have the direct line to our market supervisor. (STO thread)
> 
> The high of the day has been incorrectly recorded as 22.52. It seems like it was just made up after a trade crossed above 26 (outside the market range guidelines).  This bad data is a blight on both the daily and weekly charts.




No worries Peter,

Angelica from the ASX has just arrived from the airport, and has settled in to the Ross Island Hotel, V8 Suite,  and I shall ask her later this evening.

gg


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## nulla nulla (16 June 2012)

wbc continues to hover at the lower levels, fluctuating this week between $20.16 and $20.77. It will be interesting to see how the finance sector goes next week. All the talk is for the world economies (G20?) to get together and support the likes of Greece and Spain (then Italy and France, then...). No doubt we will continue to see wild oscillations in banking share prices providing trade opportunities for the brave or insane.






Good luck! (I'm not sure which category I fit in?)


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2013)

How high can this little beauty go?

One of my luckier picks, I'll qualify that , better picks.

Volume is falling.






Will it falter before $28?

gg


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## tinhat (20 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> How high can this little beauty go?
> 
> One of my luckier picks, I'll qualify that , better picks.
> 
> ...




A self funded retiree goes to see their broker and says:

"The best deal I can find for a one year term deposit is 4.5% I can get a 90 day term deposit for 4.7% but by the time that matures, rates might be half a percent less than now. My electricity bill has been going up faster than that rate of return. What blue chip stocks can I get into that give a yield over 7% so I can keep my head above water?"

WBC dividend yield gross with franking credits: 8.9%

It wouldn't surprise me to see that yield come down to around 5% net, 7.14% with franking credits. 7% is a magic number. Double your money in ten years at 7%. That would represent a share price of $34.80.

Stocks don't go up in a straight line though.

If you bought at a price considerably cheaper than the current price, you are probably getting a grossed up yield at or above 10% (before income tax). Assuming no capital gains, and a steady dividend that is a mighty fine ROR for any investment. Double your money every seven years. That is a very impressive income stream. The stock market's long term accumulation ROR (dividends plus capital gains) is 10% over 100 years - and that includes the thirty year super-cycle boom we just went through. Who's to say the stock market won't remain flat for the next ten years?

I don't know if interest rates are going down any further but I reckon they won't be going up soon either.

Volume is only returning to the market is my guess. The demand for defensive income stocks is not exhausted yet. I won't be selling my bank stocks in a hurry given the yields I am getting.


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## notting (20 January 2013)

The banks have been quite competative recently in trying to capture cash from Mums and Dads to lend out again as margins have been squeezed on traditional OS supply lines.
Will be interesting to see how the fleeing from cash in banks to dividend stocks is coped with by the lenders.
I'm not sure how much the Basel III softening will alter this international squeeziness.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2013)

tinhat said:


> A self funded retiree goes to see their broker and says:
> 
> "The best deal I can find for a one year term deposit is 4.5% I can get a 90 day term deposit for 4.7% but by the time that matures, rates might be half a percent less than now. My electricity bill has been going up faster than that rate of return. What blue chip stocks can I get into that give a yield over 7% so I can keep my head above water?"
> 
> ...






notting said:


> The banks have been quite competative recently in trying to capture cash from Mums and Dads to lend out again as margins have been squeezed on traditional OS supply lines.
> Will be interesting to see how the fleeing from cash in banks to dividend stocks is coped with by the lenders.
> I'm not sure how much the Basel III softening will alter this international squeeziness.




Thanks , somethings to think about.

The chart looks toppy atm

I'll stay in though.

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks , somethings to think about.
> 
> The chart looks toppy atm
> 
> ...




Since my last post, WBC seems to be going sideways nicely. $30 may be within reach. This will be huge resistance and I may take profits then.






gg


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## tinhat (1 February 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Since my last post, WBC seems to be going sideways nicely. $30 may be within reach. This will be huge resistance and I may take profits then.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Fair enough. While I'm yielding 12% (grossed up) I don't really mind if it trades sideways for the next ten years (ala NAB).


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 February 2013)

Just an update on WBC.

It seems to be sexy amongst the brokers and commentators.

They say it is a buy.






A decade long monthly chart above shows comprehensive rejection of $15, and $20. It has sailed through $25.

Next week will be interesting. 

It seems to have a fair bit of momentum. It needs to clear $30 on good volume to progress further from here.

gg


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## howmanyru (18 February 2013)

You know when everyone's getting in it's time to get out.


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## bigdog (1 August 2013)

Looks like the Westpac online banking site is down 

https://online.westpac.com.au/esis/Login/SrvPage

I can not login to do my banking


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## clayton4115 (8 February 2014)

do you think WBC is a good short at these levels? double top on the monthly?


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 February 2014)

clayton4115 said:


> do you think WBC is a good short at these levels? double top on the monthly?




On a 12 mo weekly chart, my guess would be either a down move on impulsive action, or a sideways one with accumulation. 

I don't see much upside atm, though buyers in on Friday, who may prove me wrong.






gg


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## clayton4115 (8 February 2014)

yes i tend to agree, with this rally happening in the US we may even see another test at the $34.50 (if it gets there) which i doubt.


----------



## trainspotter (19 March 2014)

> “My husband being a paediatrician was awesome. With four children ”” *three of them triplets* ”” I needed a lot of help and support at home. He did more than his fair share of everything in the home and I could not have done what I’ve done without that.”




http://www.news.com.au/finance/work...tralian-business/story-fn5tas5k-1226859495087

Whale Oil Beef Hooked !! A CEO of a bank that can count !!! Wait a minute ... if 3 of them were triplets then there would be nine  

Maybe she meant:-



> “My husband being a paediatrician was awesome. With four children ”” *including a set of triplets* ”” I needed a lot of help and support at home. He did more than his fair share of everything in the home and I could not have done what I’ve done without that.”




Aahhhhhhh that feels better now ......


----------



## piggybank (10 April 2014)

P&F Daily Update:-

​


----------



## herzy (11 April 2014)

piggybank said:


> P&F Daily Update:-




What does this mean please Piggy?


----------



## piggybank (11 April 2014)

herzy said:


> What does this mean please Piggy?




P&F - The type of chart - Point & Finger
Daily - As opposed to a weekly/monthly chart
Update - Update on my last chart I posted in that thread

I hope this helps Herzy?

Regards
PB


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 April 2014)

piggybank said:


> P&F - The type of chart - Point & *Finger*



*Figure* mate.


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## tinhat (28 May 2015)

Assuming the retrace is exhausted, I bought today. Not sure where the share price is going but attracted to the fundamentals and the yield. I think banks have been oversold.


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## Nicks (5 September 2015)

Bought sub $30 and happy with 6% + fully franked dividend.


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## qldfrog (6 September 2015)

Nicks said:


> Bought sub $30 and happy with 6% + fully franked dividend.



Great term deposit with no capital garantee, nor fixed return rate;
might buy the same at $25 in a fortnight if I feel like gambling.
Sorry Nicks  not personal, but are the return worth the risks?
Leverage (aka banks) works both way and for a country in recession....


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## shouldaindex (6 September 2015)

It is basically a bet on recession or not in the next 12 months.

My guess would be about a 20% swing either way (so 40% all up) depending on outcome.

I'm more familiar with ANZ, it's @ $27 currently, so I'd ballpark $22 / $32.


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## Nicks (21 September 2015)

qldfrog said:


> Great term deposit with no capital garantee, nor fixed return rate;
> might buy the same at $25 in a fortnight if I feel like gambling.
> Sorry Nicks  not personal, but are the return worth the risks?
> Leverage (aka banks) works both way and for a country in recession....




How did you go at $25?

Which country is in recession?

Show me a term deposit that pays such returns please.

Seriously sold out at $31.75 last week. Will buy in again sub $30.


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## sptrawler (22 September 2015)

qldfrog said:


> Great term deposit with no capital garantee, nor fixed return rate;
> might buy the same at $25 in a fortnight if I feel like gambling.
> Sorry Nicks  not personal, but are the return worth the risks?
> Leverage (aka banks) works both way and for a country in recession....




If we go into recession (which I think is happening) where do you put your money?

The thing with the banks is, they get everyone's pay packet, every week.
They get to invest most peoples super contributions, every week.
They get every small to medium business takings, every week.

Who else has money being poured into them, every week, recession or not?


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## sinner (23 September 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Who else has money being poured into them, every week, recession or not?




Aside from banks, consumer staples, realestate and energy is my guess.

But, thanks to 9% mandatory minimum super and default "balanced" funds, every week 9% of the nations wage productivity goes to the super funds who invest 60% of that into "blue chip stocks", i.e. ~5.4% of the nations wage productivity is being poured into ASX listed companies regardless of whether they perform well, or poorly, over or under valued.


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## Vixs (23 September 2015)

sinner said:


> Aside from banks, consumer staples, realestate and energy is my guess.
> 
> But, thanks to 9% mandatory minimum super and default "balanced" funds, every week 9% of the nations wage productivity goes to the super funds who invest 60% of that into "blue chip stocks", i.e. ~5.4% of the nations wage productivity is being poured into ASX listed companies regardless of whether they perform well, or poorly, over or under valued.




Default options would also include international shares, infrastructure, property and alternative allocations such as private equity and hedge funds and small caps in their growth asset exposure. I'd imagine it's the industry funds, not the retail, that get the majority of those inflows though. Could be wrong, interested to find out.


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## sptrawler (23 September 2015)

Vixs said:


> Default options would also include international shares, infrastructure, property and alternative allocations such as private equity and hedge funds and small caps in their growth asset exposure. I'd imagine it's the industry funds, not the retail, that get the majority of those inflows though. Could be wrong, interested to find out.




Do the industry funds invest directly, or use default master trust funds? 
Thereby reducing their responsibility and accountability, for outcomes?


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## Vixs (24 September 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Do the industry funds invest directly, or use default master trust funds?
> Thereby reducing their responsibility and accountability, for outcomes?




Many utilise fund managers with mandates for how the money is run, some have in-house managers and invest directly as they've obtained the scale to make it worthwhile. Many are also utilising index funds in a bid to lower costs.

With regards to reducing their responsibility and accountability for outcomes, ultimately they are the trustee and are responsible to their members for their outcomes, so how they manage the funds isn't really relevant on  those points in my opinion.

Sorry, got a bit off topic from Westpac. If it's something you want to discuss further perhaps we should start a thread on that.


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## kid hustlr (14 October 2015)

Capital raising is a big discount to the SP.

Is this common?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-to-raise-35bn-cash-profit-up-3-per-cent-20151013-gk8f8q.html


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## skyQuake (14 October 2015)

kid hustlr said:


> Capital raising is a big discount to the SP.
> 
> Is this common?
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-to-raise-35bn-cash-profit-up-3-per-cent-20151013-gk8f8q.html




Yep, its a rights issue not placement so its 'fair'.

CBA similar story.


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## CanOz (14 October 2015)

Here's a laymen question regarding capital raising...why can't the bank just use its profits to shore up the balance sheet? Why do they need to dilute shareholders value by raising equity? I understand that some profit will go out as divies...

CanOz


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## skc (14 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> Here's a laymen question regarding capital raising...why can't the bank just use its profits to shore up the balance sheet? Why do they need to dilute shareholders value by raising equity? I understand that some profit will go out as divies...
> 
> CanOz




Yes it's one of the ironies of the market. They can certainly skip a dividend payment or two to have the same impact on their balance sheet. Yet they'd never do it. I guess they are worried about the market's reaction if they ever cut dividend... but giving money out on one hand while asking for money on the other, does nothing more than paying handsome fees to the brokers and underwriters.


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## CanOz (14 October 2015)

skc said:


> Yes it's one of the ironies of the market. They can certainly skip a dividend payment or two to have the same impact on their balance sheet. Yet they'd never do it. I guess they are worried about the market's reaction if they ever cut dividend... but giving money out on one hand while asking for money on the other, does nothing more than paying handsome fees to the brokers and underwriters.





Thanks SKC, so i guess its the ole "Because they can..."


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## oldblue (14 October 2015)

Bank shares have become the "go to" securities for investors seeking income - term deposits and bonds don't do it any more. Bank boards are not prepared to risk the resultant re-rating of their shares if they cut dividends, hence issuing new capital is the lesser of two evils - or so they figure.


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## Ves (14 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> Thanks SKC, so i guess its the ole "Because they can..."



Bank execs have remuneration agreements that are heavily tilted towards Total Shareholder Return (TSR) over a set period,  which obviously includes dividends.   As a double whammy,  cutting or stopping dividends,  will probably hinder the share price performance,  further reducing TSR for that period.


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## tinhat (14 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> Here's a laymen question regarding capital raising...why can't the bank just use its profits to shore up the balance sheet? Why do they need to dilute shareholders value by raising equity? I understand that some profit will go out as divies...
> 
> CanOz




These sort of anomalies are often explained by distortions create by taxation, which I believe is the case here. As suggested, these sort of stocks, which are perceived to be secure and offering a steady dividend stream,are very attractive to people such as SMSF superannuants and others who can redeem the full value of the imputation credits with the ATO. 

Any company that is offering a dividend reinvestment plan is diluting its shareholders with a capital raising every six months. This is not much different. The offer is about the same value as the upcoming dividend.


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## CanOz (14 October 2015)

Thanks for the replies everyone, very insightful.


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## coolcup (23 October 2015)

The WBC entitlement offer website says that the online acceptance form will be available today. When I go to the site, there is no such thing available. Anyone else having this issue?


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## coolcup (24 October 2015)

coolcup said:


> The WBC entitlement offer website says that the online acceptance form will be available today. When I go to the site, there is no such thing available. Anyone else having this issue?




Website appears fixed now.


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## Ferret (24 October 2015)

Just out of interest, any reason you want to take up the offer as soon as it opens?  

I prefer to wait until near the close a. so I have the cash for longer & b. in case a black swan event sends the share price below the offer price.


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## coolcup (24 October 2015)

Ferret said:


> Just out of interest, any reason you want to take up the offer as soon as it opens?
> 
> I prefer to wait until near the close a. so I have the cash for longer & b. in case a black swan event sends the share price below the offer price.




You are spot on Ferret - that is exactly what I normally do. I may be without internet access for a period during the retail offer so wanted to lock the entitlements in now. Given it is a 1/23 offer, the amount of capital we are talking (for my holdings) is pretty limited so I am not too worried about the interest lost in the meantime.


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## Ferret (24 October 2015)

coolcup said:


> I may be without internet access for a period during the retail offer so wanted to lock the entitlements in now.




Yes, I've been in that situation too.  I think this offer is a pretty safe bet.


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## SmokeyGhost (25 October 2015)

I have actioned the application as well but scheduled the BPay for the day before the offer closes so I have the opportunity to cancel it should circumstances change.


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## kid hustlr (28 April 2018)

Everyone is aware of the issues with the banks at present however the last 2 days of action I found interesting.

$28 has been a long term support level for WBC and it's held in nicely again.

Aggressive traders could have a go right now or wait several more days to see if the 28.50 level is re-captured.

It's likely there will be more news to come in the banking sector so I would caution looking for too much. I also feel there are better opportunities at present and as such will stand aside in this case. I also naturally have a decent chunk of indirect exposure to the big 4 via other investment vehicles.


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## Joules MM1 (28 April 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Everyone is aware of the issues with the banks at present however the last 2 days of action I found interesting.
> 
> $28 has been a long term support level for WBC and it's held in nicely again.
> 
> ...




shortman.com.au backs your call, puke prior to the low, added shortsales will get squeezed 
divergent 21day TMF
the last time (mid 2012) the 13week TMF got this low was near low 27's and it was a top buy then as managers rebalanced/bailed so now we dropped into the same zone and a low risk opportunity long appears at hand

28's zone/floor appears to  a  great buy for the average SMSF i spose


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## nulla nulla (28 April 2018)

The potential of mortgage exposure through dodgy loan approvals might be worrying some investors. Coupled with easing property prices could see a bit of a sell down in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see bigger provisions for bad and doubtful loans in forthcoming reporting. Especially now that the regulators are under more pressure to scrutinize their books.


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## Sharkman (28 April 2018)

i'm not too worried about it. IMHO it's just a knee jerk reaction to the UBS research note. i've never really trusted broker research notes, i'm very cynical towards them, i always suspect there's some sort of motive behind them. maybe UBS are keen to do some divvy stripping and wanted to beat the prices down with divs in 3 of the big 4 coming up, i dunno.

from what i read (though i only skimmed over a few articles briefly) it seemed to me that most of the question marks here stem not so much from blatant misinformation (eg. declaring an annual income of 150K when their real income was 50K), although i'm sure there are isolated cases of that, but more to do with the use of HEM to project the customer's expenses and the view that this measure errs on the low side. but i don't think one can simply assume that because a loan was approved due to the customer's expenditure being underestimated by HEM, it will automatically turn into a bad loan.

people will go to great lengths to not lose their home, even if it was bought with a loan they perhaps shouldn't have been given. i speak from personal experience, as a child growing up in the 90s, when the interest rates shot thru the roof during Keating's recession, i remember having to eat peanut butter sandwiches for dinner instead of a hot meal, no family outings, second hand school uniforms etc. people will make sacrifices, they'll reduce expenditure as much as they can, do whatever's possible to keep hanging on until they've stabilised their situation. defaulting is almost always an absolute last resort. especially here with full recourse loans.

of course i could be wrong and the stock prices could plummet even further, in which case i'll definitely feel it in the hip pocket, as i do hold a decent chunk of my portfolio in banks (and will continue to do so).


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## Toyota Lexcen (4 September 2018)

very disappointing performance from WBC.

over 15yrs your capital gone nowhere

no justification for banks/or executives being so highly rated in the investment/financial world


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## tinhat (4 September 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> very disappointing performance from WBC.
> 
> over 15yrs your capital gone nowhere
> 
> no justification for banks/or executives being so highly rated in the investment/financial world




If you bought fifteen years ago you would have paid about $12. While that capital value may not have appreciated in real terms over that period, the accumulative return based on the dividend stream would be very impressive. Currently you would be earning a 15.7% dividend yield on that holding (before franking credits). A very high and tax effective income stream. [edited - first post had wrong prices]


----------



## sptrawler (4 September 2018)

tinhat said:


> If you bought fifteen years ago you would have paid about $12. While that capital value may not have appreciated in real terms over that period, the accumulative return based on the dividend stream would be very impressive. Currently you would be earning a 15.7% dividend yield on that holding (before franking credits). A very high and tax effective income stream. [edited - first post had wrong prices]



Was there, did that.

What about BHP, $30 down to $12 six or seven years ago, now $34. They haven't done much either.
Come on the next crash, last time bought CSL at $27, don't think that will happen again.


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## PZ99 (13 November 2018)

Something fishy about this decision?

In an extraordinary move, the Federal Court has refused to approve a $35 million penalty for Westpac, despite the bank admitting it broke responsible lending laws.

The penalty was a negotiated settlement between Westpac and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

Westpac admitted its automated loan approval system used the Household Expenditure Measure (HEM) — a relatively low estimate of basic living expenses — to calculate potential borrowers' living costs.

The bank used the HEM instead of actually evaluating the customers' declared living expenses, and admitted this practice breached the National Consumer Credit Protection Act.

This meant affected customers were approved for home loans they potentially could not afford to repay without financial hardship.

ASIC alleged the bank approved about 50,000 home loans based on a HEM benchmark, even though the customers' declared living expenses were higher.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-13/westpac-home-loan-responsible-lending-asic-case/10491452


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## Ann (17 November 2018)

....and a long term daily 8 year chart. I have charted the various support and resistance levels. Resistance $28, potential supports of $25, around $20, around $16. I have also added a Fibbo for those who look at that feature.


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## sptrawler (18 November 2018)

I hope you are right Ann.


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## bigdog (3 February 2019)

*Westpac Bank is trying to compete with Afterpay!!!!

YOU MUST HAVE A CREDIT CARD!*

I have a Westpac Credit Card and on Wednesday last week I spent just over $500 charged to my card.

On Friday, I received email from Westpac offering my to used new "Large Purchase SmartPlan" with terms of 3, 6 or 12 months, our 0% p.a. Large Purchase SmartPlan may make paying off big ticket items or a large, unexpected expense, a little easier.

Please refer my posting using link below *APT - Afterpay Touch Group*

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1013202/


----------



## Ann (4 February 2019)

*An Upheaval Is Coming for Australian Banks*

_Australia’s scandal-plagued banks are set for their biggest upheaval in decades as a wide-ranging inquiry into misconduct recommends how the nation’s financial industry should atone for wrongdoings.

In its final report to be released in Canberra on Monday, the government-appointed Royal Commission could propose financial firms be broken up to avoid conflicts of interest, push for changes to pay and bonuses, tighten lending standards, urge tougher action from regulators, and even push for charges against banks and senior executives._


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## Ann (4 February 2019)

I checked the ADRs list WBC is there as was ANZ, BOQ, CBA, NAB *The Complete List of Australian ADRs trading on the US Exchanges as of Jan 1, 2019 and The Complete List of Australian ADRs trading on the US OTC Markets as of Dec 25,2018*
It will be interesting if these are sold down overnight after the report is released. I would hate to own bank stocks at the moment with the US being able to get in first.


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## tinhat (5 February 2019)

I find it interesting that the only big four bank to have not been targeted for prosecution by the Hayne Royal Commission is the one that was run by a woman for most of the past decade or so. This is from the Gail Kelly Wikipedia page "In October 2010, Kelly announced a target to have women occupy 40% of the top 4000 managerial positions at Westpac, a task reported by _The Australian_ newspaper to have been almost achieved by March 2012."

Maybe board and management diversity is something we as shareholders should be pushing for more.


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## sptrawler (13 August 2019)

ASIC's case against WBC, over irresponsible lending practices, thrown out of court.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...ark-case-against-westpac-20190813-p52gii.html


----------



## tinhat (3 October 2019)

I can't resist a market correction. I accumulated a few more WBC today for my Mum's pension account. 9% grossed up dividend yield. 41 days out from ex-dividend date. What can go wrong?


----------



## sptrawler (3 October 2019)

tinhat said:


> I can't resist a market correction. I accumulated a few more WBC today for my Mum's pension account. 9% grossed up dividend yield. 41 days out from ex-dividend date. What can go wrong?



12million traded today, so obviously some like you, took the opportunity.


----------



## sptrawler (3 October 2019)

It will be interesting to see if Westpac reduce their dividend, as NAB did, even if they did, at this price the return will still be attractive IMO.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 October 2019)

I heard on the radio  that the ATO is now saying you are only allowed one principal residence and any other such as a holiday house, even if you don't rent it has to be treated as an investment. (I thought this was the case anyway but it appears not)
This causes the banks to need more reserves which means they need to charge more the loan of this second property as they have more costs. Westpac is by far the largest lender for this sort of property (I don't know why) so they will be the bank most adversely affected.


----------



## sptrawler (4 October 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> I heard on the radio  that the ATO is now saying you are only allowed one principal residence and any other such as a holiday house, even if you don't rent it has to be treated as an investment. (I thought this was the case anyway but it appears not)
> This causes the banks to need more reserves which means they need to charge more the loan of this second property as they have more costs. Westpac is by far the largest lender for this sort of property (I don't know why) so they will be the bank most adversely affected.



Im with you on that, I thought thay was always the case, maybe the reporter stuffed it up, you can only have one ppr.


----------



## Austwide (4 October 2019)

I agree, one PPR is correct but I think there is or was a grace period of maybe 6 months to buy a new and sell your old PPR, maybe that has been stopped?


----------



## sptrawler (4 October 2019)

Austwide said:


> I agree, one PPR is correct but I think there is or was a grace period of maybe 6 months to buy a new and sell your old PPR, maybe that has been stopped?



It used to be 6 years, to enable teachers, nurses, police or others who had to move away for extended periods to keep the house as ppr for tax purposes.
But even then you are only allowed 1 ppr, if you bought another house in the town you were working, you couldn't claim ppr on both. One had to attract CGT.
Well that is my memory of it.


----------



## greggles (4 November 2019)

Terrible FY2019 results from WBC today.







Weakness virtually across the board. In a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate economic environment banks are going to struggle to make any real headway. The problem is, I don't think economic conditions are going to change in a hurry. We won't be seeing interest rate rises until we see real wage growth and we won't see that until we see real economic growth. 

Banks are going to be stuck in the mud for a while, wheels spinning like crazy but just getting themselves deeper into the mire. When the US market eventually collapses conditions will even be worse. It's going to be a long, bumpy, painful road back to profit growth for the banks IMO.


----------



## dyna (4 November 2019)

Dismal return on equity,compared to overseas banks.All of the locals,including the big four are gonna have to cut their divs in coming years.Yet,with all the bad news,now pretty much out there, WBC will have no probs at all,in filling its book for the $2 billion placement.Instos will be tripping over themselves,in the rush.Little guys like me will cough up 30 grand for the $1/2 Bill SPP. Lazy investing for the top 20 shareholders.(and for me, too) The trick will be,to dump 'em down the track, before they do.For the longer term,there are better things than banks to invest in.


----------



## bigdog (4 November 2019)

The securities will remain in trading halt until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Wednesday, 6 November 2019 or when the announcement is released to the market.

ASX Announcement 4/11/2019 8:08:56 AM *Westpac launches capital raising*
Westpac shares are in a trading halt on Monday after the banking giant announced a $2.5 billion capital raising. These funds will be used to strengthen its balance sheet and improve its CET1 ratio.

The bank also released its full year results and revealed a 15% decline in profits. This led to Westpac cutting its final dividend down 15% to 80 cents per share.

During the period the bank reported a 16% decline in statutory net profit to $6,784 million and a 15% decline in cash earnings to $6,849 million.

The bank’s net interest margin tumbled 10 basis points to 2.12% and its return on equity fell 225 basis points to 10.75%.



15 ASX announcements today:






736


----------



## bigdog (5 November 2019)

As expected the market did not like yesterdays WBC announcements

Selling the bank’s shares on Tuesday follow the release of a soft full year result and the announcement of a $2.5 billion capital raising on Monday. 

Westpac reported a 16% decline in statutory net profit to $6,784 million. Its cash earnings also fell hard, and were down 15% to $6,849 million.

A total of 79 million new shares have been placed with sophisticated and institutional investors at a price of $25.32 per share. This is a discount of 9.2% to its last close price. Though, these shares won’t be eligible for Westpac’s final 80 cents per share dividend.

Westpac will now push ahead with its non-underwritten share purchase plan to raise a further $500 million.

The issue price for the share purchase plan shares is a little more complex. It will be the lesser of the placement price and the VWAP of Westpac shares traded on the ASX during the five trading days up to, and including, the close date of December 2, less a 2% discount and rounded to the nearest cent.







845


----------



## PZ99 (5 November 2019)

If Westpac are raising capital there's a fair chance the other banks will follow suit.

WBC getting it done now might play out better in the long run IMO.

SP back to where it was after the election - so not all bad.


----------



## sptrawler (5 November 2019)

Well I don't know how the Governments extra levy on Banks, is working out for them.


----------



## peter2 (20 November 2019)

What's it going to take to make bank CEO's and their boards take the financial laws seriously.? 
Fines aren't enough because the shareholders and customers end up paying for it. 

Jail time and massive community service sentences must be considered.


----------



## Sharkman (21 November 2019)

peter2 said:


> What's it going to take to make bank CEO's and their boards take the financial laws seriously.?
> Fines aren't enough because the shareholders and customers end up paying for it.
> 
> Jail time and massive community service sentences must be considered.




i don't know that it's a case of CEOs/boards not taking the laws seriously, they probably do. i think it's more to do with them not fostering the right culture/environment that encourages those things to be taken seriously. what i mean is that over the last decade or two, it seems to me that they've been giving direct revenue generating departments more and more leeway to "explore untapped opportunities", whereas non-revenue generating departments (which would include compliance) have been increasingly viewed as expenses to be minimised, rather than as an integral part of how they conduct business, and therefore bore the brunt of cutbacks.

i would guess that's what happened here, their compliance department has probably been getting systematically stripped of resources over the years and/or offshored, such that they had to cut corners and didn't have the capacity to monitor everything, and this sort of thing is the result.

another non-revenue generating department impacted by this would be technology. for tech startups and companies like Xero etc., technology is their revenue generating department, and they invest in it accordingly. but for the banks, it's increasingly getting viewed as a cost to be minimised as much as possible, not as a productive investment that can actually help their business.

so i doubt they've even given a look at fields like big data and machine learning (things that may well have helped detect breaches such as this). even if their technology leaders had said, hey i think this could really help us, their ideas probably would've been shot down by the board - nah, we don't have the budget for it, we already allocated it to our marketing department to tell people that financial planning is good for them!

i don't think it's a coincidence that the number of online banking outages seems to be going up and up. if departments/teams aren't given the resources to do their jobs properly, the quality of the output is going to suffer. no two ways about it.


----------



## rederob (21 November 2019)

tinhat said:


> I can't resist a market correction. I accumulated a few more WBC today for my Mum's pension account. 9% grossed up dividend yield. 41 days out from ex-dividend date. *What can go wrong?*



"*The anti-money laundering regulator is accusing Westpac of failing to report more than 19.5 million international funds transfer instructions to it over a period of five years, for money moving into and out of Australia*."
We will not be participating in their capital raising now, but prior to this thought WBC may be fairly priced.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 November 2019)

A potential $1 bn in fines is surely going to drive the share price down, at what price will it be good value ?


----------



## Ferret (21 November 2019)

rederob said:


> We will not be participating in their capital raising now, but prior to this thought WBC may be fairly priced.




What is it that Buffet says about buying when all around are fearful?  I'm still going to participate.


----------



## rederob (21 November 2019)

Ferret said:


> What is it that Buffet says about buying when all around are fearful?  I'm still going to participate.



I learned from experience that there is a chance of buying later on at a lesser price, and also learned to never hurry.
Banks might be on the nose, but like insurance companies have a product in demand (aka "money" in the case of banks) and numerous means to recover any losses.
In the case of WBC until that probable loss is known then its share price stands to meander and decline, while any reason/s for it to rise in any meaningful way are presently not apparent.


----------



## Ferret (21 November 2019)

rederob said:


> I learned from experience that there is a chance of buying later on at a lesser price, and also learned to never hurry.
> Banks might be on the nose, but like insurance companies have a product in demand (aka "money" in the case of banks) and numerous means to recover any losses.
> In the case of WBC until that probable loss is known then its share price stands to meander and decline, while any reason/s for it to rise in any meaningful way are presently not apparent.




All good points. 

I've also seen many times where you can buy later at a lower price.  Similar situation with dividend reinvestment plans and why I generally no longer participate in these.

Nevertheless, I'm tempted by the 2% discount here.


----------



## PZ99 (21 November 2019)

ANZ / WBC / NAB would all have to be sub 23's before I'd reinvest. That's where they were prior to the election. BOQ might be tempting at low 8's


----------



## sptrawler (21 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> ANZ / WBC / NAB would all have to be sub 23's before I'd reinvest. That's where they were prior to the election. BOQ might be tempting at low 8's



It will be interesting to see if they get there, I doubt it, but if they do I will be buying more. OMG as if I am not heavily enough into Banks.


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## Sharkman (21 November 2019)

rederob said:


> "*The anti-money laundering regulator is accusing Westpac of failing to report more than 19.5 million international funds transfer instructions to it over a period of five years, for money moving into and out of Australia*."
> We will not be participating in their capital raising now, but prior to this thought WBC may be fairly priced.




tend to agree, i had thought that at a theoretical ex-rights ex-div price of around $27, the rights issue at $25.32 was reasonable value _on the premise that following the royal commission, all the skeletons were now out of the closet_, and the banks could proceed with making the necessary remediations and getting things back to normal. i was looking to participate too, as that would have been a significant discount to the then theoretical ex-rights ex-div price, but this latest scandal has thrown cold water over all of that.

then i thought about doing it anyway, under the assumption that the implied vols would be elevated because of this incident, and i could just sell ATM/slightly ITM covered calls over the rights issue units to offset some of the risk. but i just checked the options market and was surprised to find that the WBC IVs are not all that high - about 16.5 for the Dec ATMs, 15 for Jan. spreads also seem par for the course - 0.47/0.54 for the Dec 25 calls. wonder why that is.


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## kahuna1 (21 November 2019)

Added at the open.

Its a 91 billion dollar company which MAY ... get fined 1 billion.
May, being the operative word. As this case is vastly different than the CBA one and their auto tellers, the MAY is an even bigger MAYBE.

Whilst maybe, maybe the dividend at 160 gets cut to 150 ... at some stage somewhere ... with rates likely to get cut to 0.5% and RBA saying they stay low for some time, years, being given a fully franked say 150 dividend at say 6% ... with Franking is $25- ... and that's IF ... Westpac has to pay the fine and experience of the past and the drubbing the ASIC copped trying to fine Westpac should be some indication as to what occurs.

Who knows, but below $25- its getting nice, and that's even allowing for a massive cut in dividend to $1.50 or around 3.5 billion ... over time taken as a hit. By this I mean the fine apportioned over say 5 or more years. So right here at $25- its a 6% yield EVEN using a slashed dividend ... and 8.04% grossed up with dividend imputed. 

Time only will tell and I note the market is having a cow. maybe it goes to $22- and a $1.50 slashed dividend its a yield of 6.818% Grossed up to via dividend an astounding 9.13% when its likely we remain below 1% interest rates for 2-3 years.

Somewhere between the two seems good to me !!

Famous last words as the market yet again hits new lows. We have Banks near 10 year lows and others at 10 year highs. I am more concerned about hot air stocks like COL and WES which to me seem 15-20% too high.

Enjoy.


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## sptrawler (21 November 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Added at the open.
> 
> Its a 91 billion dollar company which MAY ... get fined 1 billion.
> May, being the operative word. As this case is vastly different than the CBA one and their auto tellers, the MAY is an even bigger MAYBE.
> ...



Nailed it, IMO


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## rederob (22 November 2019)

"Westpac shares fell another 1.9% yesterday to close at $25.16 taking the losses for the past two days to more than 5% and over 12% in the past month.

The shares touched a 10 month low of $24.80 during trading. That meant the shares fell under the $25.32 issue price in the recent $2 billion capital raising.

Westpac’s $500 million retail funding raising is now underway and closes on December 1. A price-earnings ratio of more than 7% (at the issue price of $25.32) will prove to be very attractive to retail investors.

It will prove to be a litmus test to see if small investors want to punish Westpac in any way."


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## Country Lad (22 November 2019)

rederob said:


> "Westpac shares fell another 1.9% yesterday to close at $25.16 taking the losses for the past two days to more than 5% and over 12% in the past month.




The banks and particularly WBC have a history of fluctuations. This time the financial environment is quite a bit different than in the past, so it will be interesting to see whether the market decides now is not the time to be patient with it.
Unfortunately, the data provider for this monthly chart in the past has adjusted for issues, share buy backs, dividend re-investment etc, so it doesn't reflect the all time low of 94 cents in Dec 1990.


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## jbocker (22 November 2019)

rederob said:


> It will prove to be a litmus test to see if small investors want to punish Westpac in any way."



I would hope more than just the small investor. It raises a few questions on punishment, Supposing the $1Billion fine is enforced to whom do they pay. 
Outside of the board or a shareholders meeting can 'another party' remove the CEO or other board members.​


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## rederob (22 November 2019)

jbocker said:


> Outside of the board or a shareholders meeting can 'another party' remove the CEO or other board members.



Yes, if he/she/they are jailed for criminal activity... which some CEOs probably sail very close to wrt to their cavalier attitude towards customers and their motivation for bonuses at any cost.


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## sptrawler (22 November 2019)

It will be really interesting to see the final result, of all this banking turmoil, I think a credit crunch is well and truly on its way.


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## Toyota Lexcen (22 November 2019)

The reality is the Aus bank sector is on its knees. 

They were hit with the banking tax. From 2015 its been a downward trend. Can only see it muddling along. 

Shareholders of the Australian banks are paying (increased capital ratio) to keep the country from going under in situations of financial shock.  NZ about to change their capital requirements as well so again bank shareholders have to keep the country afloat in times of financial shock.

Scomo made some interesting points they other day. Clearly believes they aren’t lending, yet ASIC thinks demand is weak.


10yr low for WBC


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## So_Cynical (22 November 2019)

No one has even mentioned the slew of new banking participants, these new guys are mostly online 
only and highly automated, app driven, and will be taking market share off the established players.


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## Smurf1976 (23 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> It will be really interesting to see the final result, of all this banking turmoil, I think a credit crunch is well and truly on its way.



I won't derail the thread too much but suffice to say that yesterday I had cause to do something I very rarely do - go into a bank branch.

Long story thought I walked out empty handed. Thought it was going to be a simple process but staff looked somewhat despondent whilst saying "because of the royal commission.......".

I'll be calling to discuss how to resolve the issue on Monday. If not resolved then next step = legal advice. I'll leave it at that for the personal stuff but banking is pretty much stuffed it would seem when we're at the point of inability to perform basic functions. Add in the lack of interest payments and cash has never looked better.

Back to Westpac specifically, I think really there's a luck of the draw aspect to all of this. Chuck the names of all the big banks in a hat and draw one out. Regardless of who's in the headlines, ultimately they're all broadly similar it seems.


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## Value Hunter (23 November 2019)

I agree with So Cynical. I have long thought banks are dinosaur companies especially the ones in Australia.

If they keep going the way they are going they will be lucky to exist in 20 years time. Banks are so inefficient, technologically backwards, slow and badly managed that I dread dealing with them. Within nthe next 10 - 15 years Millennial will be the biggest spending demographic and you can bety your bottom dollar that a rapidly rising share of their wallet share will go to competitors of the big 4 banks. It will be death by 1000 cuts as companies like Afterpay, Wizr, Raiz Invest, Stockspot, etc eat into the peripheries of the big banks business while niche neo banks with lower cost structures and no legacy systems pop up to take them head on in their core mortgage business. That is not even mentioning the threat that big boys like Amazon, Facebook etc don't eventually somehow get into the home loan game.


----------



## kahuna1 (23 November 2019)

Value Hunter said:


> It will be death by 1000 cuts as companies like Afterpay, Wizr, Raiz Invest, Stockspot, etc eat into the peripheries of the big banks business while niche neo banks with lower cost structures and no legacy systems pop up to take them head on in their core mortgage business.




How quaint ... Afterpay charging 35% interest rate is going to end banks ?
Banks and money lenders have been around for 4,000 years.

Its all going to end next week ?

Must run and shave both eyebrows off.
Banks, whether ones loves them or hates them, provide a service. This service will still need to be still provided.

Banks have the infrastructure, the technology and experience and have served for many years. Often yes they get out of hand, we however are at the other extreme where bank bashing is a sport in this nation.

For me, expect Westpac to be whilst not something I love, as we head lower, to be of some value.

Cant say that about the latest list of new whizz bang things listed as the next betamax video.

Uber is on its knee's even Amazon is struggling as traditional operators adjust to new realities and take it back. Expecting banks not to do so, is strange. My pay and wave card is great and it needs no tin pot undercapitilized crappy tech thing to take over the role of a safe place for assets and reliable payments is a common delusion of these times.

Good luck. Please turn out the lights when any of our big 4 disappear. They will adjust if needed and they are well aware of competing technologies which, well, appeal to some .... but rarely work longer term.

Still buying if we go lower


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## sptrawler (23 November 2019)

The big thing is, the Government of both persuasions, like having the big four.
There has been a hiccup with the Royal commission, but the Government will want it to get back to business as usual asap.
It is much easier for the Government to regulate and control the money system with the big four, than the little four thousand.
Just my opinion, but I think this is the samarco dam burst, for the big four.


----------



## bigdog (25 November 2019)

Two ASX announcements today and uploaded below










don't hold

101


----------



## jbocker (25 November 2019)

From the announcements they will withhold part or all of their 2019 Short Term Variable Reward and the costs for rectifying the issues to be $80M in 2020.

I think you have blown much more than your STVR. Maybe the board fees should be bundled into that. And then start sweating your long term rewards.
If Prince Andrew has to be removed from duties, and I cannot see how Philippines fiasco wont imply similar reaction.
I am  uncertain but are they saying each LitePay transaction cost a $5 fee. Is that for all 19million transactions that Westpac failed to report on? Well, good to see they have the funds to cover investing of something like $54M in Protecting people program over the next 3 to 6 years.


----------



## kahuna1 (25 November 2019)

Ho hum ...

lets bash the banks.
Seriously whilst sickos and their payments ... yep awful ... is it the responsibility of the bank to monitor every and all transfers ? Their response I note is to STOP it totally ... its not worth their time. 

Since I was aware of this issue 3 months ago and they reported it to AUSTRAC and it was contained in their reports from August .... its  a bit rich that the 12 they reported already to AUSTRAC now 3 months latter AUSTRAC comes back and claims they are a problem with out giving any indication to the bank in them meantime as to WHAT to do or to stop payments ect.

Good luck with a fine idiots !! 

Westpac reported it ... to AUSTRAC and got no response ... NONE other than a claim 3 months latter a statement of claim in legal case.

IDIOT bureaucracy at work from the idiot treasurer we now have !! 

On this alone Westpac can and likely will doom to fail any case involving too big a fine. Yes they likely will agree to a massive one ... but ... if they fought it legally the statement of claim in already invalidated totally via AUSTRAC actions or should I say lack of action and guidance.


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## sptrawler (25 November 2019)

Imagine AUSTRAC trying to police 4000 banks, instead of 4, just underlines what we have been saying IMO.
I just hope WBC are still cheap when I get home.


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## Smurf1976 (25 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Imagine AUSTRAC trying to police 4000 banks, instead of 4, just underlines what we have been saying IMO.




Bottom line is that Westpac isn't going out of business.

Yes the share price has slumped but this isn't some speculative mining company or tech hopeful that may well end up worthless. Westpac isn't going anywhere despite the current drama.

Government can't afford them to fail, same with the 3 other big banks, so no chance they'll bring that about.

That said, government does have them over a barrel basically and to the extent that any policy of Westpac's differs from government policy, I expect Westpac will be changing theirs quickly but quietly to match the government's. That sort of thing will be the unspoken way out of the mess is my thinking.


----------



## sptrawler (26 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Bottom line is that Westpac isn't going out of business. By
> 
> Yes the share price has slumped but this isn't some speculative mining company or tech hopeful that may well end up worthless. Westpac isn't going anywhere despite the current drama.
> 
> ...



Absolutely, also the Government needs to get this all bedded down, so the banks can get back to implementing the Government's fiscal policy, be that lending, or following the RBAs lead.
It isn't doing the economy any good having an ongoing running commentary on the workings of ASIC, APRA and AUSTRAC.
Once everyone accepts the whipping has been handed out and the banking institutions have been put in their place, it will be back to making money, to become too strong to fail again.
To me this screams a buying opportunity. Just my opinion.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Absolutely, also the Government needs to get this all bedded down, so the banks can get back to *implementing the Government's fiscal policy*, be that lending, or following the RBAs lead.




Emphasis mine.

One thing I think is that we'll see the big banks more inclined to toe the line regarding government policy going forward.

It would be a brave move from any of the big 4 to foreclose on farmers hit by drought at this point for example.


----------



## Cam019 (26 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Once everyone accepts the whipping has been handed out and the banking institutions have been put in their place, it will be back to making money, to become too strong to fail again.
> To me this screams a buying opportunity. Just my opinion.



Agreed. Bought a parcel yesterday at $24.41.


----------



## Knobby22 (26 November 2019)

I think you may be too early.
Look what happened to the Commonwealth Bank and that wasn't as bad. It dropped for weeks before it stabilised, and this is nasty with terrorists, paedophiles, mafia, you name the crime.


----------



## Cam019 (26 November 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> I think you may be too early.
> Look what happened to the Commonwealth Bank and that wasn't as bad. It dropped for weeks before it stabilised, and this is nasty with terrorists, paedophiles, mafia, you name the crime.



Anything is possible. If so, I'll buy more.  Don't forget we are down almost 17% from the September 24th high. Time will tell.


----------



## rederob (26 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I think is that we'll see the big banks more inclined to toe the line regarding government policy going forward.



Wasn't it more that bank culture - "the pursuit of profit " - was paramount, while their compliance structures were deficient.
I'm not saying that they were always acting lawfully, just that I suspect they did know the law but had poor systems in place to ensure it was met.  It's pretty hard to miss tens of millions of unlawful transactions unless you have relied on (flawed) "compliance systems."


Smurf1976 said:


> It would be a brave move from any of the big 4 to foreclose on farmers hit by drought at this point for example.



It would also be not clever until rains have broken the drought.  However, I think foreclosures have been an ongoing theme so adding one or more to the mix might not get too much attention.
I hope I am wrong!


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 November 2019)

rederob said:


> It would also be not clever until rains have broken the drought.  However, I think foreclosures have been an ongoing theme so adding one or more to the mix might not get too much attention.
> I hope I am wrong!




I could well be wrong in this thinking but I'm viewing it as similar to anyone who finds themselves in trouble with the law and is hoping for some sort of leniency.

If you've done the wrong thing and have been caught doing it then it's wise to immediately stop doing anything else which, whilst not technically illegal in itself, the Police Officer, magistrate, government inspector, your boss or whoever you're dealing with would strongly prefer you didn't do. Be nice and keep them as happy as you can if you're hoping for leniency.

So I'm thinking that in Westpac's case then now wouldn't be a good time to give the government a reason to be on the attack over anything else. So don't be failing to pass on any RBA rate cuts in full, don't be evicting any farmers right now and so on. Just accept some costs financially until everything calms down.

I could of course be completely wrong and they're not thinking that way at all.


----------



## sptrawler (26 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Emphasis mine.
> 
> One thing I think is that we'll see the big banks more inclined to toe the line regarding government policy going forward.
> 
> It would be a brave move from any of the big 4 to foreclose on farmers hit by drought at this point for example.



I would guess the banks will be reluctant to foreclose, but equally reluctant to give " easy" loans, that is where the credit squeeze will manifest IMO.
Only those with good collateral will get loans. 
Just my opinion.


----------



## Miner (27 November 2019)

Cam019 said:


> Agreed. Bought a parcel yesterday at $24.41.



I would like to know more on your strategy to purchase at this time.
So many legal cases and the CEO has been sacked with $2.1 M handshake for 12 months salary. He should have been forefeited all his past shares than stopping future ones. Lots of window dressng.
Notwithstanding has the market factored the losses already ? The price slightly rose up.
https://smallcaps.com.au/westpac-sued-23-million-breaches-anti-money-laundering-laws/


----------



## qldfrog (27 November 2019)

I actually lowered my lowball buy by an extra 2 $
$22 a share and i speculatively buy for a quick sell on rebound


----------



## Cam019 (27 November 2019)

Miner said:


> I would like to know more on your strategy to purchase at



Just at work @Miner, I'll come back to you when I can.


----------



## Miner (27 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> I actually lowered my lowball buy by an extra 2 $
> $22 a share and i speculatively buy for a quick sell on rebound



Looks like your rational thoughts on wbc could prevail.
Lehman collapsed. Australian Government will try but dont have the capability to support it on taxpayers money if the inquiries slammed a heavy fine or more serious actions. I understand capital fund has invested on wbc as well. 
What is needed to get few directors sent to jail as happen in USA.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 November 2019)

Miner said:


> Australian Government will try but dont have the capability to support it on taxpayers money if the inquiries slammed a heavy fine or more serious actions.




I might be missing something here but would any fine paid by Westpac not be paid to the Australian government?

For every $ Westpac loses in fines, government has another $ which increases their ability to, among other things, prop up a bank.

Or am I missing something about who the fine would be paid to?


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## qldfrog (27 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I might be missing something here but would any fine paid by Westpac not be paid to the Australian government?
> 
> For every $ Westpac loses in fines, government has another $ which increases their ability to, among other things, prop up a bank.
> 
> Or am I missing something about who the fine would be paid to?



the fine is nothing, the share price hit major: the fine has to be paid from cash  and can not be leveraged, so the share price drop will be big.and as a bank after BASEL 2? or are we at 3? they might need more capital again.
in any case why gambling on this and the RE market?, gov might prop the RE market but they do not give a damn about shareholders and worst case scenario we can live with 3 big banks or even 2


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## fiftyeight (27 November 2019)

WBC is basically flat for the year, has the share price fall really been that dramatic?


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## WolfInvestor22 (28 November 2019)

https://youth-investment-group.com/...-heres-why-you-should-not-buy-westpac-shares/


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## Cam019 (28 November 2019)

Miner said:


> I would like to know more on your strategy to purchase at this time.
> So many legal cases and the CEO has been sacked with $2.1 M handshake for 12 months salary. He should have been forefeited all his past shares than stopping future ones. Lots of window dressng.
> Notwithstanding has the market factored the losses already ? The price slightly rose up.
> https://smallcaps.com.au/westpac-sued-23-million-breaches-anti-money-laundering-laws/



Okay... why do I like WBC at $24.41? Firstly, big 4 bank - I think it is too big to fail. As I said somewhere before, the share price is down around 17% from it's September high. I also believe that the market has already priced in most, if not all, of the negative news over the last week or so. The market is expecting terrible news... so if it comes, it's already expected. If it's not as bad as what is expected, we could see some upside movement. Anyway, enough of my opinion... let's get to the numbers.

Share price - $24.41
EPS (ttm) - $1.89

This gives us an earnings yield of 7.74%. Dividend has been cut to 80c. So if we assume $1.60 dividend for the 2020 year, this still gives us a 6.55% dividend yield, grossed up is 9.36%. It could be cut more again, but this gives us something to work with. Dividend payout ratio works out to be 84.66%. Book value per share for the most recent quarter was $18.79 which means you can buy Australias second largest bank at 1.3x book value (this was only done quickly, but it gives a ballpark to work with).

I have done an IV calculation and putting all the negative sentiment aside, this bank it trading at a large discount to what I perceive to be its intrinsic value. That is even using very low book value growth rates over the next decade, and further reduction in EPS than listed above, just to be conservative. Don't forget, the risk free rate (10Y government bond yield) is at measly 1.028%. There is a risk premium on offer here of 6.71%. If the 10Y yield stays below 2-3% for the next decade, or two, or three... current prices in equities are looking very cheap.


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## Sharkman (28 November 2019)

Cam019 said:


> Okay... why do I like WBC at $24.41? Firstly, big 4 bank - I think it is too big to fail.




too big to fail doesn't necessarily equate to something being a good investment. sure there's virtually zero chance of it collapsing, but if it ends up fetching you a total return (dividend + capital gain/loss) of 3-5% over the span of a few years, that's probably not a good investment, there's better ways to utilise your capital than that.



Cam019 said:


> EPS (ttm) - $1.89
> 
> This gives us an earnings yield of 7.74%. Dividend has been cut to 80c. So if we assume $1.60 dividend for the 2020 year, this still gives us a 6.55% dividend yield, grossed up is 9.36%. It could be cut more again, but this gives us something to work with. Dividend payout ratio works out to be 84.66%.




85% is a very high payout ratio. historically big bank payout ratios have tended to sit in the 70-75% range, and a lot of that history was before the royal commission and stricter capital adequacy ratios, Basel III etc. personal opinion only, but i don't think a payout ratio of 85% is sustainable, especially following those two things. it's got to get back to the 70-75% range, and we're already seeing them start to cut the div to possibly ease their way back there (they won't want to do it in one big jump as that might spook investors). otherwise we'll be seeing a lot more capital raisings and eventually investors will get sick of them. those insto investors especially must be a bit gun shy now, they bought in at the $25.32 bookbuild price, which was at the time a significant discount to the theoretical ex-rights ex-div price, only to find themselves almost instantly in the red when this scandal broke days later.

there also has to be a high degree of uncertainty around those EPS forecasts. i'd speculate that this has come about because they (along with all the other banks) have been systematically stripping resources from non-revenue generating departments like compliance over the past decade or more. this could force them into increasing expenditure to refurbish those departments (hiring more personnel, building newer systems etc.) so that they can sufficiently monitor these sorts of things, as well as deal with increased regulatory oversight, all of which would negatively impact EPS. hard to say how much though.

that being said, if i didn't already hold several thousand units in my core portfolio which i've had for a number of years now, i might've been tempted at around 23.50, last major low about a year ago at the height of the royal commission, so maybe some support to be found there. but there's no way i'd want to increase exposure now, with all the uncertainty and headwinds swirling around.


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## Country Lad (29 November 2019)

Sharkman said:


> too big to fail doesn't necessarily equate to something being a good investment.



Exactly what people told me in 1992 when all banks were in a real pickle thanks to the likes of Tricontinental, Bank SA and a few others and I bought Westpac at 95 cents.  Is it the same now when it settles around a bottom?
No idea as unlike in those days, I don't have first hand experience of the industry.
However, it might be a worthwhile punt for the very long term - mine certainly was.


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## Cam019 (29 November 2019)

Country Lad said:


> Exactly what people told me in 1992 when all banks were in a real pickle thanks to the likes of Tricontinental, Bank SA and a few others and I bought Westpac at 95 cents.  Is it the same now when it settles around a bottom?
> No idea as unlike in those days, I don't have first hand experience of the industry.
> However, it might be a worthwhile punt for the very long term - mine certainly was.



Still holding from 95 cents @Country Lad?


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## kahuna1 (29 November 2019)

Sharkman said:


> 85% is a very high payout ratio.




You may have heard there was a royal commission and remediation costs ... ONE off costs lowered NPAT.

WBC paid out 1.88 in dividends for many years, its now $1.60 ...
It just raised capital to fix the balance sheet.

Whilst AUSTRAC thing may cause another year of costs, LOWER one off costs  as the remediation costs were massive, at worst ... maybe $1.50 dividend so 6% yield at $25 fully franked verses likely cash rate of 0.5%.

Obviously we are lower, and I add and will add as and if it goes lower.

What the current payout ratio is ... this year ... is irrelevant given the outcome and costs involved with the royal commission.

Just checked and payouts alone are 958 million and overall cost about 1.5 billion so that effected ratios in the extreme in 2019. I would stress yet again the dividend is NOW $1.60 NOT $1.88 and yes the fine is unknown at this stage, its possible Westpac having informed AUSTRAC many months ago about some of the issues is legally on very strong ground to get a LOWER fine than CBA not higher.

I suspect that is of course unlikely, and whilst not so happy, its unlikely other than a blip ... all be it a a billion dollar blip for now.

Either way, dividend at $1.60 or $1.50 longer term its yielding a lot more than the other big 3 banks.

As such, either the shed 10% in price or WBC is about 5% too cheap even with the fleas it has.

Only time will tell and with the USA market at all time highs, ignoring any and all bad news slowly slowly ... adding for me. The delusional rally of the USA based more upon a threat of even more tax cuts for the rich and ignoring a 1.05 trillion deficit and 23 trillion in debt ... which to be blunt scares me.

We have our banking sector near CPI adjusted lows of the post GFC era yet the majority of world stocks are at all time highs.


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## Sharkman (30 November 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> You may have heard there was a royal commission and remediation costs ... ONE off costs lowered NPAT.




fair points. there's just one problem - having worked in the financial industry for the past 15 or so years and seen first hand the effects that the introduction of Dodd-Frank, MIFID II, and lately SFTR can have on a financial institution's day to day operations, i can just about guarantee that the consequences of something like this will *not* be a one off cost. the impact will be ongoing. yes this isn't a Dodd-Frank, but it's the same sort of theme - greater regulatory scrutiny. consider the following:

* reputational damage. it takes years to build up positive reputation, and days to tear it all down. look at what happened with Wells Fargo a couple of years back, and that was "just" fraud - not facilitating crime/money laundering. hard to quantify as it's mostly intangible, but it is there and could be significant

* additional audit/compliance/risk management personnel required to continuously monitor and provide a higher level of detail in reporting to regulatory authorities

* slower on-boarding (and again more personnel required) of new clients/business due to stricter KYC (know your customer) procedures, which i suspect they may have been cutting corners with in the pursuit of profits

* more time and effort spent by front office (ie. revenue generating divisions like sales desks) in learning and navigating the stricter and more complex regulatory requirements imposed on them, means they have less time for actually generating new business/revenue

* additional technology personnel required to not just remediate, but also maintain more robust reporting systems

* given the extra scrutiny on an institution following an incident like this, that means experienced audit and technical personnel familiar with the institution's existing processes and systems are required to ensure that it gets done right, and that it continues to be done right going forward. which takes away time that those personnel could have otherwise spent on projects that could improve profitability (eg. automation/optimising business processes, on-boarding new business)

* this is just speculation on my part - i've worked at a few financial institutions though Westpac isn't one of them - but again, my guess is that this whole thing came about because of chronic under-investment in divisions like compliance, because they don't directly generate revenue. i'll give you a personal example. in my 20s i worked at one of the other big 4 banks. when i first started there, i asked one of the more experienced guys, who i knew thru conversation to also be a stock investor, how do i go about getting a staff trade approved. he said he didn't know. i said, but don't we need to get compliance to pre-approve staff trades before we place them? his reply: "well yeah, but nobody ever polices that, don't worry about it. go nuts mate - just trade whatever you want!". now that the spotlight is on them, if that was the case, they won't be able to get away with rampant cost cutting on those divisions any more, which means additional on going costs

* Basel III is most definitely not a one off - it's been getting phased in over the last few years and is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Basel III is almost certainly going to restrict an institution's ability to pay dividends. given the banks were maintaining a 70-75% payout ratio *before* the advent of Basel III, i can't imagine they'd be able to sustain a higher payout ratio going forward, with final phases of Basel III about to be introduced in the next couple of years or so

you don't have to believe me. different points of view are what makes a healthy market after all. and there are obviously a lot of unknowns here, neither you, or i, or anyone else knows for sure what the outcome/penalty will be.

but i know what i've seen inside the industry over the years, and more often than not regulatory impositions are going to be a significant drag on a financial institution's performance for years to come. i just wish that this was done as a renounceable rights issue. i would've gladly sold you my rights at a fair price!


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## Country Lad (30 November 2019)

Cam019 said:


> Still holding from 95 cents @Country Lad?



Yes, cetainly am. The dividends are part of the retirement income which allows me to do things like currently sitting on the balcony of the Sea Princes in Akaroa looking at the surrounding hills in sunshine and mid 20's drinking a nice red wine. That is why I said for the very long term in the post.
Mind you I often have to resist the temptation to sell a few everh time the price drops simply because of the profit.


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## Value Hunter (30 November 2019)

Kahuna to me big banks are like Kodak was just before digital cameras came out or Nokia before the iphone, incompetent, bloated and too slow, fat and lazy to adjust to the times. Banks legacy back end systems are atrocious and will probably need tens of billions worth of investment to come into the modern era. This is to say nothing of the atrocious customer service of banks. 

For example it often takes 1 month plus to get a mortgage finalized. In the digital age I just cannot see that being sustainable for very long and they simply won't invest enough too keep up consider their very high dividend payout ratios.... Everybody dreads dealing with banks, I know I certainly do. Everything is slow, cumbersome, antiquated and you get buried in paperwork. How long can this situation last? Banks take their customers and their market share for granted. I do not think they will adapt. 

People certainly need banking and financial services but they do not need to get it from banks!


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## Knobby22 (30 November 2019)

With Austrac, CBA has been fined, NAB will be fined (it is known they are in trouble but not how much), Westpac is in big trouble (They have always been the dodgiest) and ANZ recently got a thanks from the AFP for helping catch criminals and Austrac say they are compliant.

So if I was interested in buying a bank I would choose ANZ, then CBA.


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## kahuna1 (30 November 2019)

Teee hee ...

Just shaved off both eyebrows reading the above.

Its funny when one looks at the portfolio of the Australian fund that is in the top 100 of 10,000 funds globally in equities the past 10 years. Whilst not as bullish as he is on the industry his holdings and long term holdings of banks and finance companies and Visa and MasterCard is around 60% of the portfolio. 

I  suspect he may have some idea of what he is doing. 

Can I convince him to shave off both his eyebrows ? Because its all going to disappear overnight ? 

If years in banking counted, I started in late 1982 so that's 37 years. Sadly, despite some very senior positions eventually, it does not. Infallibility is not something I am suggesting via experience.

Suggesting Westpac is the dirtiest bank is sadly delusional. Every bank no matter how hard they may try eventually will transact money from despicable sources. That Westpac clearly informed AUSTRAC many months prior to them being handed a statement claim, a Legal one over tiny transactions in the $3,000 range is and will be amusing to watch if Westpac decides to defend. 

This aside, I am assuming they will pay around 1 billion fine rather than contest the case.

Perspective seems lost on most when a bank makes in 2019 around 6.8 billion profits and that is even with about half of the remediation costs paid in 20919 in it.

Is a 1 billion dollar fine on 7 billion net profits a big deal ? Yes and NO .

Short term yes, long term no.

Westpac just raised 2.5 billion and prior to that it already was at 10.7% Tier one capital adequacy.

I note some comments on Basel and capital Adequacy and APRA and Australia has the most stringent of all requirements barr any county. If I said I disagreed with virtually all that was said its an aside.

I have made my case, as to why and adding if we head lower ... and for what reason.

I am being paid for the risk, I would add I was clearly exiting a few months ago at 20% higher .... I was adding ... late 2018 at similar and lower levels.

Each to their own. 

Good luck with those Uber or We Work bank things. I do prefer a regulated and safe place for my money but some do not.

Enjoy


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## Knobby22 (30 November 2019)

Westpac were warned, they still failed to comply and belatedly admitted it. They saved money by running their own system and didn't put enough resources behind it to make it work. They have now closed it down.

ANZ has dropped a lot also I note. Since they have been cleared by Austrac maybe that would be a better buy? ANZ spent a lot of money and resources ensuring they complied. It also helped that they operate more internationally.

The danger for the banks long term isn't little mini banks , it's companies like Amazon, Google and Apple. Already Apple has their fingers in their pie. Also this present oligarchy is ripe for international competition.


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## Toyota Lexcen (30 November 2019)

What a farce it has has become for banks.

It's not about being a bank, all about doing the government's job on crime, terrorism, financial stability etc


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## Smurf1976 (1 December 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> It's not about being a bank, all about doing the government's job




Banking is one of those quasi-government industries really. No matter whether it's privately owned or run by government it's never going to be too far removed from government intervention.

Others in that category include all forms of commercially supplied energy, water, hospitals, mainstream media and any dominant transport operator (toll roads, rail either the track or the trains, aviation especially Qantas). 

I don't outright avoid such companies but I'm always aware that to some extent they're effectively privately owned listed arms of government at risk of politics. I'm not saying it's wrong or right just that it is.


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## kahuna1 (1 December 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Ex Div and its squished. I agree with no growth ... its paid it out via dividends too high for a long time. As well as that increased capital needed to avoid any GFC event so more put as reserves.
> 
> Here, well ... I am still of the opinion that maybe we don't cut rates. Not until needed. So at $1.66 Div a $24- share price is 6.9% and for me, its a good deal. Franking either way not an issue and tax free 6.9% verses 1.5% or maybe 2% with tax is not even a question. Sure we may head lower and with a lot going on via the USA with a lot of issues from China and trade to Iran and other war efforts, added to this Trump being chased for 20 odd reasons .... maybe we do get it lower.
> 
> ...




Its the usual story .... late 2018 I bought so many banks when it was end of the world ... NAB I ended up with a lot of ...

As it rose ... I reduced and by rise I mean a rise above $28- -----  this year the doomsayers selling at lows are out for Westpac.

Same rules ,,, different year ... different bank but identical or close to enters and exits.
NAB went from below $24= to $30  ish .

I am always amazed when the value, underlying value of stock represented by the price falls and people should be more enthused, more bullish .... retail types are the opposite and actually buy at the peaks and sell at the lows. 

Buy high ... sell low ... brilliant .... be bullish at the peaks ... and bearish at the lows. Yes of course the industry has been paying too much i n dividends and that Australia is implementing capital requirements the USA and EU will unlikely enforce till 2024 and beyond ... this has very clearly has already been taken into account with the actual price. Instead of rising with inflation and GDP growth and underlying profit rises, we are essentially reflecting the new normal of much more capital being held to protect depositors. 

Suggesting some new bitcoin or other medium will replace banks is absurd in the extreme. If it were to occur, which of course is a maybe, the same security and capital reserve requirements would be insisted upon as actual banks. Since these tin bit computer generated coins have no underlying value and no reserves and 17 odd billion has been stolen in 2019 so far, I for one think its unlikely I will be seeing there emergence anytime soon. 


Buy high ... sell low ... brilliant .... be bullish at the peaks ... and bearish at the lows.

Are we near the low or high ?


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## kid hustlr (1 December 2019)

Slightly OT, but has anyone done some quantitative work around performance of stocks post a dividend cut?
For example the average return post a dividend cut is xyz:

Specific WBC example aside I would imagine a dividend cut is a pre-cursor for poor future performance, but I haven't done the work.


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## Student of Gann (1 December 2019)

24.26 Low 25th November should hold with minor uptrend indicated till 10th November at  25.70 or 28.70 .  Major Low is indicated  10th January 2020. 
​


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## qldfrog (2 December 2019)

You mean top on 10/12?then down to January


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## Student of Gann (2 December 2019)

Thanks for picking that up . Yes counter trend rally into 10th December before resumption of downtrend .


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## sptrawler (2 December 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Banking is one of those quasi-government industries really. No matter whether it's privately owned or run by government it's never going to be too far removed from government intervention.
> 
> Others in that category include all forms of commercially supplied energy, water, hospitals, mainstream media and any dominant transport operator (toll roads, rail either the track or the trains, aviation especially Qantas).
> 
> I don't outright avoid such companies but I'm always aware that to some extent they're effectively privately owned listed arms of government at risk of politics. I'm not saying it's wrong or right just that it is.



On the same note, a while back I bought into Qantas at 96cents, it was all doom and gloom, I also bought into and sold Air NZ similar sentiment doom and gloom, yet they are both quasi Government companies.
The banks move free up and tighten up money flow as per RBA request, the Government overseas the RBA, the 4 Banks are required to be too big to fail.
How that all relates to doom and gloom, I am really having trouble reconciling, I wont be selling.
Having said that, I have ridden a few into the ground.


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## Smurf1976 (2 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The banks move free up and tighten up money flow as per RBA request, the Government overseas the RBA, the 4 Banks are required to be too big to fail.




To clarify - I'm not saying don't invest in things which are close to government, just to be aware of the environment such companies operate in.

Nobody should be surprised if they invest in a major airline, bank, energy company etc and find government taking a keen interest in what the business is doing and exerting some influence. It's just something to be aware of unlike, say, a fashion retail chain which is pretty far removed from that sort of thing. 

I do agree though that there's a buying opportunity here and the only doubts are regarding the detail - waiting for the absolute bottom versus buying somewhere reasonably near.


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## sptrawler (2 December 2019)

Very true smurf, Country boy bought WBC at 95c, I bought at $2.40.
So as always, buyer beware.


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## qldfrog (2 December 2019)

And I agree they are dinosaurs and in a natural economy, they would die, but we are not in a capitalist world,
after a nice dinner in Canberra, the fintech will see its license not renewed. A company will see its support based on an LGBT stance or a sex ration on the board..So  from an economic stance, the big 4 are rubbish a la GM/Ford in the US . Dinosaurs of a past area but the power in charges are the same, so they will die a very long death..look at telstra..still around...


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## tinhat (2 December 2019)

I sold half the SMSF holding of WBC today. Half can stay in the bottom draw no worries as the SMSF will hopefully still be around in 40 years time, but there are better opportunities elsewhere for the other half.


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## Sharkman (3 December 2019)

tinhat said:


> I sold half the SMSF holding of WBC today. Half can stay in the bottom draw no worries as the SMSF will hopefully still be around in 40 years time, but there are better opportunities elsewhere for the other half.




pretty much sums up my view on the banks as well, although i'm not selling down any of my positions, i'm just not buying any more units, and haven't for the last few years. i'll let them auto-adjust on their own and become a smaller and smaller % of my portfolio if they keep floundering the way they have been for the last few years (or if they unexpectedly rally, then they'll auto-correct the other way).

however i am starting to get tempted by the idea of buying up a bunch of 2-3 month OTM calls as a Hail Mary punt in case it rebounds. usually i stick to covered calls and naked puts these days, but might make an exception here, as i just can't figure out how the implied vols are so low with all the uncertainty swirling around. i must be overlooking something as this seems to be ridiculously cheap gamma considering what's going on?

the Feb 27s for eg. can be had for just a few cents - an IV of about 14, and there isn't that much skew either, with the near ATMs at around 15.5-16. the delta is around 10, so it's a rank long shot, but the strike is less than half the distance to the last peak, so if this whole incident unexpectedly blows over, or even if things just quieten down a bit for a few weeks, those 10 delta calls could fetch a decent payoff for very little cost.


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## dyna (3 December 2019)

Bought 10 grand worth of WBC at $24.40,today.My first of three shots at this thing.From what I can tell,watching the huge volumes going thru the market,these past few weeks,there ain't no mums and dads in it,but shrewd pros,cleverly hiding behind small buy orders. Is Westpac heading for the low $20's? maybe...then again,maybe not.can't help but think I'll miss the bottom,somehow....too damned hard to pick


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## Ferret (3 December 2019)

SPP price is announced as $24.20. A pity today's market tumble came a day after the pricing period...

Anyway, I've taken a chance and have an application in.  I feel ok about the banks at least for the medium term.


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## qldfrog (4 December 2019)

Bad news for SP future, just jumped in and bought a small packet at 24.00 today, i thought with a spp at 24:20 what can go wrong in short term
My entering a stock wo a system in place is usually bad news for the SP...


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## kahuna1 (4 December 2019)

Still adding ...
Also ... adding ANZ NAB BEN to the mix.

Our market is reflecting a full correction and well, at 10 year inflation adjusted lows, we shall see.

Slowly slowly ... panic is always a lift shaft. Not so long ago the total opposite despite the fleas being out in the open and the case of WBC at $30 peak to .... 80% of that today without some GFC is somewhat amazing.


Enjoy


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## Knobby22 (4 December 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Still adding ...
> Also ... adding ANZ NAB BEN to the mix.
> 
> Our market is reflecting a full correction and well, at 10 year inflation adjusted lows, we shall see.
> ...




Yes, and 10 years ago WBC was the  same price!
Compare that to CSL.

I think you may be right though, this is only a short correction (famous last words).


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## kahuna1 (4 December 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> 10 years ago WBC was the same price!
> Compare that to CSL.




I did prefer MFG 10 years ago to CSL ... one went up 50 fold .. whilst not an avid poster on this site, I did have numerous discussions WITH MYSELF mainly about CSL and MFG where people were more interested in PDN and the Uranium bubble than the likes of CSL or MFG.

I note, with great amusement this thread, people not commenting say at $30- not so long ago and now dumping at $24- ....  Value is always a reflection of price and whilst not amused at say $28 and above for WBC and exiting and reducing ... $25 and below and todays addition at $23.93 most amusing despite being under water on the initial addition if one does not count the $5- plus previous capital gain over the last 12 months. 

Yep Banks will not do a CSL or close to it, however ... in and out ... in and out ... that added to a grossed up yield of 8% .... one triples your money over 10 years and then some.

Only time will tell at this stage.
I note ... the Trump circus yet again hits and now Bloomberg the Republican who is running as a democrat and his media mouthpiece is claiming, yet again ... some breakthrough on China and in a blink USA markets rally 1% . 

Likely the rally goes on, when the end outcome of stage one ... is nothing. Nothing good for either China or in fact the USA.

Back to sleep for now. Have no brilliant ideas in this market with even second rate stocks say in the consumer side which their numbers are sucking like COL and WES are up 30-50% . The attraction of banks is that whilst their numbers are not great, they are reflecting reality and not priced at absurd levels.

In the end, 2020 likely to be a doosey with 2019 rewriting many finance books and macro economic principals and laws that have and still do dictate things. Just in 2019, we ignore the USA deficit and corporate paying 50% of the tax they did in 2006 ... and ignore that USA the majority of the population now pays well over 3 times the price for healthcare which is not something which is optional. Either you get medical help or more often than not you die.

Whilst at this stage unlikely a change in 2020 from Trump, heaven help them if they reversed the idiotic tax cuts to the rich and actually made healthcare in the USA cost similar to Canada over a few years. The market will have a cow, let alone wealth tax for cretins who evade tax and ones like Bezos who amazingly had a billion dollar company that rarely had made a profit, never paid a dividend and PAYS NO TAX .... PAYS NO TAX. 

Quite a contrast to say an Australian bank which pays through the nose tax ... highly regulated and at this stage being micro managed and supervised to absurd standards. These things go in long term cycles and USA will eventually change either in 2020 or 2024 and demand tax actually be paid, conversely here, this bank bashing and blaming mantra will fade and things will go back to the last 207 years for WBC.


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## Toyota Lexcen (4 December 2019)

the banks probably going to drop around 5% tomorrow with NZ RBA to announce capital requirements.

5yr return very poor, cant see how WBC can get over $30 and sustain that in the next 10-15yrs

great article by christopher joye in AFR vabout the price banks are paying to be crime fighters

with a lot of terrorism being conducted by lone wolf type individuals its really just  over regulation


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## kahuna1 (4 December 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> the banks probably going to drop around 5% tomorrow with NZ RBA to announce capital requirements




Possibly .... hoping for it since NZ requirements for a market less than 10% of total book size will inspire someone to sell another 5% .... is ... unlikely. Most have been raising capital and reducing payout ratios in anticipation of this event either way.


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## Toyota Lexcen (4 December 2019)

they will definitely go to shareholders for the capital needed in NZ, will be 10% discount at least I would say


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## kahuna1 (5 December 2019)

Oh gosh ...

long into our banking fiasco ... banks smashed prior to it... result ... 8% rally

long into election bank selloff ... result 15% rally 

now we are doing it again ... combination selloff via .. idiotic supervision .. more capital and  a threat of NZ going nuts to protect against an event you cant protect against ...

result ? 

Well as to any cap raising ... banks have been moving that way for 18 months.
The highs of recent years .... well over $30- ... 
IF NZ raises the bar .. the banks will of course pass on the COST .... increase lending costs .... lower deposit costs.

May even see for some ... NZ float and total divest ...

who knows, suspect its not going to be as bad as the people with no eyebrows !!


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## kahuna1 (5 December 2019)

Win win win …


RBNZ capital requirements changes 5th Dec 2019.

Whilst on the face of it going to 16% tier one capital is onerous.

Banks in Australia who own the NZ ones have been aware of this for 2 years.

2 years.

They have been shoring up their capital in expectation of it.
ANZ and WBC the main ones hit both now have come out with a requirement of around NZD 7 billion needed tier one.

It sounds bad, it is in fact far better than expected.

Massively so.

Instead of allowing 5 years, its now 40% more and 7 years.
Secondly weighting for capital requirements have been relaxed.
What is allowed for being called tier one capital RELAXED and preference perpetual share debt that is convertible is now allowed.

Massive all of these.

It gets better.

RBNZ estimates it will make loans 32 basis points more expensive as it is allowing banks to raise their margins and in fact it will generate massive increases in profits in NZ which, will of course be retained and in fact pay for itself.

I suspect about HALF if not more of additional capital will be raised and retained with *zero impact to the payout to shareholders*. It will of course see say 400 million NZD rising to 750 million each year more profits after tax, but these will be retained.

Bottom line ? Well shareholders get a much more secure bank overall.

Big losers ? Whilst inconvenient and a cost already having this impost of 16% capital required, end result is passed onto the consumer and the investor whilst not profiting from the misery of the poor consumer, gets an institution with massive capital buffers.

Whilst so many have worried about this for so long, the end result is actually far far far less than feared. Having 7 years, an open and published acceptance by RBNZ that the net margin banks earn will rise 0.32% …. and the relaxing of how risk is counted coupled with some relaxation of what is counted by RBNZ as actual capital means basically …. NOTHING.

Win win win … except for poor NZ consumers.

I do note how absurd it is to raise capital requirements to worlds best, highest cost and when the USA and EU will not even confirm to the much lower levels and ones 4% lower by 2024 makes it all a nonsense. In a global market, when an issue such as the GFC occurs, global systemic risk is key.

Whilst nice, and pretty, its absurd if not idiotic to demand this of banks when more than likely the risk will be global. Having 16% capital cushion in say 2027 when its likely some will be delayed and be holding 11% or less makes your banks not really that much safer in a global contagion, which is likely what will occur next crisis.

Reading the 300 pages of PDF's released I am somewhat agog at how much has been given on one hand …. and taken on the other via higher consumer and borrowing costs.

As to predictions of end of the world or payout ratios using idiotic past data when say WBC used to pay out $1.88 and its now $1.60 speaks for itself.

Suggestions of some new force about to take over banking, well, it will be regulated just the same and have no capital, no infrastructure and be required to report and provide similar if not identical safeguards as existing banks. In short the hurdle just got higher and entry to the market harder and more expensive as a result.

Similar things occurring in Australia for identical reason and recent rate cuts, not passed on …. same reasons and same result. Lions share of the fall in dividends already occurred and implemented with most cutting by 10% the size of the dividend paid.

Good luck


ANZ up WBC up and the prediction of some 6% fall somewhat amusing right now.


----------



## sptrawler (23 January 2020)

WBC new chairman named, ex ANZ's John McFarlane. They are dusting off the old timers, to bring back a bit of class, there may be hope for us ASF old timers yet.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...rman-john-mcfarlane/11893396?section=business


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## tinhat (23 January 2020)

I sold the SMSF out of all bank shares recently. I think it was Dec 19. My mum still holds some bank shares and I will be advising her to sell out too because she needs to do some serious renovations. Me the big bank bull, buy bank shares, better than bank deposit. Well not any more, It's boom time on the ASX, don't know how long it will last, but no point being stuck on the starters line when the other cars are half way around the track.


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## sptrawler (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I sold the SMSF out of all bank shares recently. I think it was Dec 19. My mum still holds some bank shares and I will be advising her to sell out too because she needs to do some serious renovations. Me the big bank bull, buy bank shares, better than bank deposit. Well not any more, It's boom time on the ASX, don't know how long it will last, but no point being stuck on the starters line when the other cars are half way around the track.



Im tending to agree with your sentiments, Im heavy in the banks and best case scenario IMO is they will tread water. There may be a blip if they decide to mop up the BNPL players, but as far as dividends go I dont see sunshine and lollypops.
So I will probably start and re alocate to more growth stocks, maybe pick up a few more WES?


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## sptrawler (24 January 2020)

I will add to the last post, I will wait for the outcome of the AUSTRAC incident before making any move.


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## dyna (28 February 2020)

Bought another ten grand worth of WBC at $23.90,today.I'll have one more go at this,to see if I can pick the bottom.(Thanks for the virus.)


----------



## kahuna1 (28 February 2020)

I have been active of late in Banks ....

added or should I say purchased at absurd prices today.

Was NOT amused at WBC  or its accounts.
Clearly and very clearly it stunk, despite that the stock went UP and UP and UP from $23.66 low to an insane $25.96 high. I wish I had all the buys I did at the low, but when the accounts were examined along with commentary it was a total no brainier to reduce and reduce very HARD. Reason being the capital adequacy, comments about more storms on the Horizon and well ... when the market up to a week ago gives one a gift exit when its clear its time to give the idiots back the shares they sold.

I missed the range of 8% by a long way, but ... also got the 80 cent fully franked dividend to make up for the slow way I entered ... and so too the slow exit.

Cannot complain ... the total range was 8% .... and despite being too soon buying ... 3% off the lows and snagging close to the absolute low ... only got half that ... so ... overall well over 10% yield plus some serious franking credits.

Entered today ... SLOWLY ... this is the bank with the biggest fleas, Litigation wise ,,, capital wise ... and of course managed to pay near the bloody high for the day when the low ...  was 35 cents LOWER.

Despite issues ... and knowing them, being paid 6% plus and that's being ultra conservative ... with franking credits again for me is fine. I might add 12 month low of close to it as well.

We shall see how far they send it this time but not about to miss the mayhem. 

Added a few of the other banks as well after giving back in the same way as they had even insaner rises. ANZ for example .... went up from $24- to an idiotic .... $27.29 which, well .... even the blind could see at 13% rise was idiotic,

NAB .... similar if not identical rise to ANZ .... and NAB seems to have less issues than any of the banks.

BEN ... knowing full well there was a cap raising coming, the results were good .... but CAP raise and lowered dividend as expected again not great. ... but boy did they slam that a few months ago ... irresistible ... knowing the risks and a mid range 10% or so rally. Its now hit the ground with a thud ... despite being with dividend of 31 cents fully franked and I suppose .... risk the dividend yearly is 58 cents or so .... 55 longer term .... at $9.20 well ... with 31 cent Dividend next week .... seriously ? 

Yet another 6% yeild ... at worst likely a bit higher ....

BOQ I put in the trash .... forever. 

One thing is clear, and that's we remain at low rates for a long time. When offered an effective yeild of 6% plus franking credits so equiv of over 8% .... gee ... golly golly gee.

But for now end of world.
If Bernie gets in, USA will have a cow .... corporate made to pay tax ? Healthcare at absurd prices and awful coverage ... some of them will overnight thankfully implode.

Time will tell on that one. First he needs to be selected over the corrupt Democratic party elites and likes of Billionaire imbeciles like Bloomberg. Spending 500 million on his preselection and likely USD 700 million by Super Tuesday ... which is 4 days away !! 

The man is a zombie that makes even Zuckerburg look human which he is not ... 

Should be a fun 2020 ... and if Bernie wins .... which I suspect he is a shoe in, with some serious caveats on the bloody party he is running for ... who is so corrupt ... then Trump ... he faces Trump ... the Yam headed imbecile.

Enjoy


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## Knobby22 (28 February 2020)

Banks are the riskiest asset in a severe Recession, they are heavily geared, reliant on people being able to pay their loans.

I reckon that due to the virus disruption of the world economy unemployment will rise and businesses will go broke. Banks may make a loss over the next 6 months.

I think it's a brave choice to own them.


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## Cam019 (26 March 2020)

WBC has already breached the lows of the GFC in one single month. First downside target from here is $8 - $9.50. Purely an observation.


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## moXJO (26 March 2020)

Isn't WBC subject to a lawsuit or something?
I was reading a report the other day that it and cba were in the worst position. Anz apparently the least at risk.


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## InsvestoBoy (26 March 2020)

Cam019 said:


> WBC has already breached the lows of the GFC in one single month. First downside target from here is $8 - $9.50. Purely an observation.
> 
> View attachment 101712




Your observation is missing dividends


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## sptrawler (26 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Isn't WBC subject to a lawsuit or something?
> I was reading a report the other day that it and cba were in the worst position. Anz apparently the least at risk.



From memory, Austrac are after them for non reporting of money laundering, or something to do with it.
I think in the current climate it will probably be put on hold, untill a degree of calm falls over the banking industry and economy in general.
Just my opinion


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## sptrawler (31 March 2020)

Hopefully some sort of mediated outcome is sorted between AUSTRAC and WBC.

https://www.watoday.com.au/business...with-austrac-court-hears-20200330-p54f8v.html


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## qldfrog (31 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Hopefully some sort of mediated outcome is sorted between AUSTRAC and WBC.
> 
> https://www.watoday.com.au/business...with-austrac-court-hears-20200330-p54f8v.html



Austrac might want some cash while the bank is still alive...


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## sptrawler (4 May 2020)

Westpac to suspend dividend, profits fall 70%. 
I guess that has two effects, one lending will tighten and two so will my belt.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...ofits-plunge-70-per-cent-20200504-p54ph2.html


----------



## cutz (4 May 2020)

Yep another day of disappointment, I guess it was expected.


----------



## MrChow (5 May 2020)

Keeping profits as capital would be my preference over raising at the bottom like 2008 and I think positive SP movement today has reflected that.

It's going to take until 2022 before the bad debt cycle normalises (in a good case scenario) so have to forecast medium term if thinking about getting back to peak dividend yields of 10%+ gross.


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## cutz (5 May 2020)

MrChow said:


> Keeping profits as capital would be my preference over raising at the bottom like 2008 and I think positive SP movement today has reflected that.
> 
> It's going to take until 2022 before the bad debt cycle normalises (in a good case scenario) so have to forecast medium term if thinking about getting back to peak dividend yields of 10%+ gross.




Agree with you there mate, but disappointing nevertheless, many of us rely on divis.


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## sptrawler (5 May 2020)

cutz said:


> Agree with you there mate, but disappointing nevertheless, many of us rely on divis.



Yes it is going to be a tight year, dividends next to nothing, interest next to nothing and franking next to nothing. A lot of self funded will be eating capital this year, big time.


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## sptrawler (4 June 2020)

A good article on the Westpac anti money laundering issue, it will be interesting to see the end result of the proceedings.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...lights-directors-dilemma-20200604-p54zfp.html


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## sptrawler (17 June 2020)

The Judge presiding over the Westpac case, has called for a line to be drawn under proceedings.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...e-for-new-westpac-claims-20200617-p553gd.html


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## sptrawler (23 July 2020)

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) on Wednesday said it would not appeal the "wagyu and shiraz" case it has been fighting against Westpac over responsible lending, after its Federal Court appeal was rejected last month.

"While it would have been open to ASIC to seek special leave to appeal to the High Court to obtain a ruling on the construction of the statute, ASIC is mindful of the impact of the additional time required to resolve this matter in the current challenging economic circumstances," ASIC said.
ASIC had accused Westpac of breaching responsible lending laws, but its claim was rejected in a 2019 ruling by Federal Court Justice Nye Perram, who said borrowers could ditch luxuries such as wagyu steak and shiraz to afford a home loan.


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## sptrawler (18 August 2020)

Westpac not paying a dividend again, the pain continues for the self funded.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...due-to-uncertain-outlook-20200818-p55mox.html


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## Knobby22 (18 August 2020)

Sell buy BFG.
I warned you on Feb 28 on this thread.


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## sptrawler (18 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Sell buy BFG.
> I warned you on Feb 28 on this thread.



Unfortunately my other half is risk averse and thinks the banks are safer, as if.
I did actually suggest we sell half our bank holdings, she didn't agree, that is the downside of a SMSF with two members IMO.


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## tinhat (18 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Unfortunately my other half is risk averse and thinks the banks are safer, as if.
> I did actually suggest we sell half our bank holdings, she didn't agree, that is the downside of a SMSF with two members IMO.




Well, they won't go broke and they will pay a dividend. But as @Knobby22 suggests, there might be some alternatives worth looking at.

Martin North gave a very interesting opinion on where the money is coming from to sustain bank dividends in the interview below. There appears to be a lot of behind the scenes intervention propping up the banking sector at the moment. Martin's comments suggest that policy makers know how important bank share dividends are to many retirees and they reminded me of the AFR article "APRA gives banks wriggle room on dividends", 29 Jul 2020:

"Like that great Australian legal mind Dennis Denuto from The Castle, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres has given Australia's banks a "vibe of the thing" type of guidance on dividends.

"It's good news for investors – although exactly how good remains to be seen.

"The key part of APRA's guidance is that it will ask banks – but not tell them – to cap dividend payouts to 50 per cent of earnings. That's a fair step back from it's previous guidance that banks should defer dividends completely."


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## tinhat (18 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Unfortunately my other half is risk averse and thinks the banks are safer, as if.
> I did actually suggest we sell half our bank holdings, she didn't agree, that is the downside of a SMSF with two members IMO.




Also, if it means your wife can sleep at night then these are the things that matter. Happy wife, happy life.


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## tinhat (18 August 2020)

tinhat said:


> Martin North gave a very interesting opinion on where the money is coming from to sustain bank dividends in the interview below.




Sorry, I forgot to embed the video of the interview...


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## sptrawler (18 August 2020)

tinhat said:


> Also, if it means your wife can sleep at night then these are the things that matter. Happy wife, happy life.



After 44 years of marriage you learn that one, it is o.k doing the daring, but they only remember the losses not the wins.


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## biggiemic (24 August 2020)

Hi Just wondering if any one can give me some decent advice (fairly new to investing). I currently have 15k in Westpac at approx $18, I was just looking to leave that 15k in a long term safe stock, is it worth holding onto, or is there something else I should get on. I was considering Wesfarmers at the time, but went with Westpac and thus far Wesfarmers is doing much better. I had assumed Westpac (and banks in general) wont go any lower and will rise shortly.


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## UMike (24 August 2020)

Probably should of put $7500 in each and diversify.

Def not giving advice but I sold most of my banks the latest being ANZ last week as I am sure when the rent negotiation period ends and repayments get back to normal I am preparing for some shocks to the market. But then again these shocks could already be priced in!


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## Knobby22 (24 September 2020)

Westpac has reached a deal with AUSTRAC to settle more than 23 million alleged breaches of anti-money laundering laws by paying a record $1.3 billion penalty.


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## cutz (24 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Westpac has reached a deal with AUSTRAC to settle more than 23 million alleged breaches of anti-money laundering laws by paying a record $1.3 billion penalty.




Yep, it was released to the market early this morning, hopefully this has already been priced in.


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## sptrawler (24 September 2020)

cutz said:


> Yep, it was released to the market early this morning, hopefully this has already been priced in.



At least it brings the saga to an end, the whole situation was getting ridiculous.


----------



## cutz (24 September 2020)

Huge relief WBC has stabilized at it's $16 support,

Due to the size of the fine, initial concern was price crashing through eight option strikes, only set up for four.


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## sptrawler (24 September 2020)

cutz said:


> Huge relief WBC has stabilized at it's $16 support,
> 
> Due to the size of the fine, initial concern was price crashing through eight option strikes, only set up for four.



They had already provisioned for most of it, the good thing was the judge telling them to put a line under it, the way it was going it would have trundled on for years. WBC tells AUSTRAC they have found more incidents, AUSTRAC saying thanks we will add them to the list and start again, well that is how it appeared.
WBC gets the fine, fixes its proceedures/ I.T and AUSTRAC get a pat on the back, everyone is happy, except the shareholders.
Now WBC can get back to helping the Government fix the pandemic mess, by assisting borrowers, then when that is over bank bashing can start again. 👍


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## Knobby22 (24 September 2020)

It appears the bank tried to get a fine of $900 mil (CBAs was $700 mil) but were laughed out of the park by the Attorney General  due to the many child molesters and drug runners using Westpac as their bank of choice.


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## rederob (3 May 2021)

*Wespac looks like giving us all an indication of what we can expect from banks this year:*





Their CEO said “First half earnings were considerably higher than the prior corresponding period, mainly due to an impairment benefit reflecting improved asset quality and a better economic outlook. Notable items were also lower. We improved balance sheet strength, with our Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio rising 153 basis points to 12.34 per cent."


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 May 2021)

rederob said:


> *Wespac looks like giving us all an indication of what we can expect from banks this year:*
> 
> Their CEO said “First half earnings were considerably higher than the prior corresponding period, mainly due to an impairment benefit reflecting improved asset quality and a better economic outlook. Notable items were also lower. We improved balance sheet strength, with our Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio rising 153 basis points to 12.34 per cent."





And 58¢ per share for the reinstated dividend is paying out 60 per cent of its profits.


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## peter2 (1 November 2021)

*WBC *has sold off dramatically after rising costs and mgt stuff ups have cost heaps. This is spite of a 3.5B buyback and a raised div of 0.60/s. 






This is a falling knife that I've bought in a conservative large cap portfolio. I've bought a half position here and will wait to see what happens to price next. This is a not a trade but an active hold.


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## Craton (2 November 2021)

Another 2.86% drop at the time of writing. 
Not spruiking but Motley Fool reported Goldman Sachs downgrade:
What did the broker say?​


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## sptrawler (2 November 2021)

Craton said:


> Another 2.86% drop at the time of writing.
> Not spruiking but Motley Fool reported Goldman Sachs downgrade:
> What did the broker say?​



If it keeps going like this, the buy back won't be very attractive for the punters.


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## Craton (2 November 2021)

Too right @sptrawler. Possibly having an impact as am thinking WBC is also further being marked down for not returning the proposed $3.5b buyback to shareholders.


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## peter2 (2 November 2021)

Brokers and analysts have no idea what to value WBC currently. 





Waiting for RBA news this arvo. 

*WBC* will go XD 5/11 and price will drop another 0.60.  I'm not concerned but will wait for price to base before adding to my initial position. Rising interest rates (next year) are good for banks provided they've anticipated the increase in home loan defaults.


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## sptrawler (2 November 2021)

I'll definitely be putting a minimum price on the shares I want to sell into the buyback, I'm not here to do favours for them, they certainly haven't done any for us shareholders.


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## peter2 (2 November 2021)

There'll be plenty of time for us to discuss the buy-back. I want $26, the price before the news. 

Considering the legacy issues (2015 - 2020) I wonder if we can claw back all the bonuses paid to executives in that period. Executive bonuses are an absolute rort. The board at *CHC *are considering a $16M bonus for it's CEO. Absolutely scandalous.


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## peter2 (4 November 2021)

WBC punters aren't buying the div. Price remains near the recent low.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> WBC punters aren't buying the div. Price remains near the recent low.



last day today, before WBC goes Ex-divi.

With the 45-day rule, I'd think there would be nervousness?


----------



## sptrawler (10 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> There'll be plenty of time for us to discuss the buy-back. I want $26, the price before the news.



Any thoughts on how to approach the buy back? Other than cautiously.
I'm thinking a lot will depend on personal tax implications, initial purchase price and a definite minimum price.
With the current price, I would guess there wont be many offering their shares at a 8%-14% discount.
Some who bought in at the March covid crash, may be interested.
It will be interesting, a bit of a dumb play by WBC IMO, but they are getting a reputation for dumb plays.


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## peter2 (10 November 2021)

I won't be considering the buyback at all. It's doubtful that there'll be any significant tax advantages for me. If the offer had a set price, with a capital return portion I'd be better able to gauge any benefits. Not possible, with an unknown price.

This position for me is a 6 -12 mth trade. I'm extremely confident that this position will work out out positively for me, even if it takes two years.  Price has started to move off the low.


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## sptrawler (10 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> I won't be considering the buyback at all. It's doubtful that there'll be any significant tax advantages for me. If the offer had a set price, with a capital return portion I'd be better able to gauge any benefits. Not possible, with an unknown price.
> 
> This position for me is a 6 -12 mth trade. I'm extremely confident that this position will work out out positively for me, even if it takes two years.  Price has started to move off the low.



Considering they were trading at $24 ten years ago, it is difficult to see anyone other than extremely long term holders and institutions looking for the franking credits, participating.


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## peter2 (10 November 2021)

Quickly skimmed the *WBC* Off-Market Buy-Back booklet to understand the benefits of selling in this buy-back. 

*Capital return* of  *$11.34* (ATO draft ruling)
Final buy-back price - $11.34 = *Dividend with full franking credits. *

The booklet shows several examples across the tax scales. There maybe a benefit for some people depending on their tax situation. It will require some calculations on your part to determine if there is any benefit for your situation. 

In my situation, SFund paying pension, so no CGT, it's only the franking credits on the dividend portion that's of interest. The franking credits would be nice but I'd have to realise a loss on the shares as they were recently purchased and will be higher than the buy-back price.


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## Sharkman (10 November 2021)

i dunno, it just seems pretty lacklustre to me at first glance on today closing price. even with the minimum 8% discount the dividend component (9.55) would be less than half the buyback price.

compared to the recent CBA buyback where at the maximum 14% discount, the capital component was just 21.66 (29.22 for tax purposes), the dividend component was a whopping 66.96, bringing in a truckload of franking credits!

i guess it might be ok if the discount comes in towards the lower end, the investor operates in the lower tax brackets and/or has some undiscounted CGT liabilities to offset, but it still falls a long way short of the CBA offer in my view. at a 14% discount that's ~3.51 of franking credits vs ~3.18 lost to the discount, the CBA deal had ~28.70 of franking credits vs ~14.40 lost to the discount.


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## KevinBB (10 November 2021)

Hello @sptrawler

This type of buy back is good for some, not for others. You're right in that a lot will depend on personal tax implications, no matter what type of entity they are.

I suspect that the main reason that companies do this type of buy back is that they have surplus franking credits to get rid of, and want to dispose of them in the most effective manner for the company. Buying back shares at a huge discount can be very good for the company, and also those existing shareholders who do not take part in the buy back.

For me, it is all about taxation, nothing else. So price doesn't come in to the equation at all. If I am in the position to be able to take advantage of the buy back, I'm in. Again, for me personally, the benefit is that I'm swapping a smallish deductible capital loss, as well as a largish non deductible capital loss, for an even bigger tax refund. In addition, again, for me, the smallish capital loss can be offset against existing capital gains, so there is an additional benefit.

Again, for me personally, the buy back discount doesn't come into the decision making process. If history is any guide, the discount will most likely be the maximum. I don't know of any buy back where this has not been the case. None that I've participated in, anyway. I just accept the price given, knowing that I'll be in front when the tax refund comes.

Of course, I won't know the exact benefit until after the final buy back price is announced. For the recent WOW buy back, the overall benefit to me was just over $1k. I expect the WBC benefit to be similar.

Bring on the next one ... hopefully BHP or RIO when they next report.

KH
(for those reading this, don't take my word for it, go and see your own tax advisor)


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## peter2 (19 November 2021)

The massive *CBA* selloff after news of their reduced margins hasn't helped *WBC* rally off it's low. Looks likely to take a few more months before investors are willing to buy banks again in a big way.


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## sptrawler (19 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> The massive *CBA* selloff after news of their reduced margins hasn't helped *WBC* rally off it's low. Looks likely to take a few more months before investors are willing to buy banks again in a big way.



It will be interesting to see how it affects the buy back, I can't see many accepting a 8% discount, to these prices.


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## sptrawler (23 November 2021)

WBC closed at $21.80, the buy back is looking very sad IMO.


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## Sharkman (23 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> WBC closed at $21.80, the buy back is looking very sad IMO.




yes, i thought the offer looked lame as soon as i saw such a high fraction going to the capital component, and it's only gotten worse since then. so it's an immediate throw into the wastepaper basket for me (unfortunately i do have a few units in my buy & hold portfolio... it comprised a decent chunk of my overall capital back when i bought several years ago in the mid 20s, but it's just a minor holding now, having gone nowhere in those several years - the dividends were nice for a while but even those have deserted it now - whilst everything else esp. CSL, S&P 500 ETF have well and truly left it in the dust).


----------



## Craton (1 December 2021)

ASIC has commenced six civil penalty proceedings against Westpac in the Federal Court.



> Westpac has admitted the allegations in each of the proceedings and will remediate approximately $80 million to customers.
> 
> ASIC and Westpac will submit to the Court that combined penalties of more than $100 million are appropriate.




Me thinks it's not just WBC, more fall out from the Royal Commission et all to come IMHO.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 December 2021)

AFI writing about the banks



> _Presently, we rate Commonwealth Bank as the best quality bank, so we have our biggest holding there, with smaller holdings in Westpac, NAB and ANZ. Westpac share price has under performed more recently and consequently it looks to us to be the best relative value at this point, noting it needs to continue to improve its operations and risk and compliance measures, and reduce costs. However, we believe Westpac still has a good franchise and sound competitive positioning in the sector._


----------



## Ann (1 December 2021)

This is really not a pretty picture. It is now a four-time loser but it kept trying and trying to bash through that long term trendline resistance recently. It looks totally exhausted now . Look what happened on its last failed attempt to get through the trendline back in 2019. Those long term trendlines can be buggers (speaking from experience). I think there may be better value other than bank stocks at the moment, may be wrong of course!


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## Ann (1 December 2021)

Now that I have sufficiently depressed any holders of WBC let me continue with a long term swing trade/measured move calculation. By my reckoning, it would end up at minus $10. Not going to happen, but what may happen is a stock consolidation. As these stocks tend to be held as a dividend income stream, all of a sudden you will be paid a divie on 250 shares instead of 1000, if it is a four for one consolidation. May not be of course, may only be a 1 for 2 which gives you 500 shares from a thousand.  
As I always say, I could be very wrong of course.


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## sptrawler (1 December 2021)

You make it sound like a junior explorer Ann, Im not sure the big institutions would be happy with a consolidation, but as always time will tell.


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## divs4ever (1 December 2021)

well WBC has resorted to 'virtue-signalling '  it is starting to act like a 'spin machine ' ( which is why i very little exposure to it now )


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## Ann (2 December 2021)

sptrawler said:


> You make it sound like a junior explorer Ann, Im not sure the big institutions would be happy with a consolidation, but as always time will tell.




Well, back in April 2020 the biggest oil fund USO in the USA nearly got delisted when they were on the wrong side of a trade as oil went into negative $ and had to do a one-for-eight consolidation to keep themselves listed. They had a cute way to describe it "reverse share split", got to just love those spin doctors!

"April 22, 2020 

USCF announced today that it will execute a one-for-eight reverse share split that will be effective for shareholders of the United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE Arca: USO) after the close of the markets on April 28, 2020."


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## Sharkman (10 December 2021)

looks like they have varied the buyback terms today, offer now lasts until 11 feb 2022 and the discount range has been changed to 0%-10% (from 8%-14%). it had to be done, they must've been well aware of how unappealing their buyback offer looked compared to the likes of CBA.

with the changed terms i might just throw all of my units in at 0% in case everyone else is similarly averse to giving away a big discount with the stock at these levels, try to nab a bunch of franking credits, and look to buy back the accepted units afterwards, maybe using some sort of risk reversal. don't think the stock's long term prospects are particularly stellar, but not so keen to give them up at these levels when they've just been beaten down so heavily.


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## KevinBB (10 December 2021)

@Sharkman Thanks for highlighting this. I missed it. Don't know why it wasn't flagged as a sensitive announcement.
KH


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## sptrawler (10 December 2021)

Sharkman said:


> looks like they have varied the buyback terms today, offer now lasts until 11 feb 2022 and the discount range has been changed to 0%-10% (from 8%-14%). it had to be done, they must've been well aware of how unappealing their buyback offer looked compared to the likes of CBA.
> 
> with the changed terms i might just throw all of my units in at 0% in case everyone else is similarly averse to giving away a big discount with the stock at these levels, try to nab a bunch of franking credits, and look to buy back the accepted units afterwards, maybe using some sort of risk reversal. don't think the stock's long term prospects are particularly stellar, but not so keen to give them up at these levels when they've just been beaten down so heavily.



Probably had 0% interest in the buy back, what a weird management group.
I like your thinking, the only thing is at 0% I would personally still be putting in a floor price, this is all looking very messy.
$21 + the franking credits still just takes it up to about $26, from my mental arithmatics.


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## Ann (11 December 2021)

I wonder how many people are being sucked in to buy if they follow the RSI oversold signal?


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## Sharkman (11 December 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Probably had 0% interest in the buy back, what a weird management group.
> I like your thinking, the only thing is at 0% I would personally still be putting in a floor price, this is all looking very messy.
> $21 + the franking credits still just takes it up to about $26, from my mental arithmatics.




it's not even that, at yesterday's closing price i think it would be only around 24.93 with the franking credits, even with a 0% discount. and the effective price will likely be somewhat lower than that depending on the individual's tax circumstances, as the capital component for tax purposes is usually a bit higher than the capital component you actually receive.

the floor price is quite useless in this case IMHO, the choices are 15.50, 16.50, 17.50 or 18.50. all of those seem way too low in my view. however you do get 4 and a bit days of VWAP data since the observation period goes from 7 feb - 11 feb and the cutoff time is only 7 pm on 11 feb. so probably the better alternative is to hold off right up until the last minute, check the VWAP for an indicative price, and make a decision then.

though if you're planning to re-establish the position immediately afterwards (have to use a risk reversal or some other derivative strategy to do that i think, does the wash sale rule still apply to buybacks?) only the discount really matters, the final price not so much. you'd just have to contend with potential slippage over the weekend, as you won't know how many units got accepted until 14 feb and therefore can't size your risk reversal etc. position correctly if opening the position on 11 feb to avoid slippage.


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## qldfrog (11 December 2021)

Sharkman said:


> it's not even that, at yesterday's closing price i think it would be only around 24.93 with the franking credits, even with a 0% discount. and the effective price will likely be somewhat lower than that depending on the individual's tax circumstances, as the capital component for tax purposes is usually a bit higher than the capital component you actually receive.
> 
> the floor price is quite useless in this case IMHO, the choices are 15.50, 16.50, 17.50 or 18.50. all of those seem way too low in my view. however you do get 4 and a bit days of VWAP data since the observation period goes from 7 feb - 11 feb and the cutoff time is only 7 pm on 11 feb. so probably the better alternative is to hold off right up until the last minute, check the VWAP for an indicative price, and make a decision then.
> 
> though if you're planning to re-establish the position immediately afterwards (have to use a risk reversal or some other derivative strategy to do that i think, does the wash sale rule still apply to buybacks?) only the discount really matters, the final price not so much. you'd just have to contend with potential slippage over the weekend, as you won't know how many units got accepted until 14 feb and therefore can't size your risk reversal etc. position correctly if opening the position on 11 feb to avoid slippage.



Can i summarise this?
Why bother.....


----------



## sptrawler (11 December 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Can i summarise this?
> Why bother.....



The only reason would be, if you want to get out of WBC, if your buy in price was reasonable.
My position, the shares are in the SMSF, so if I can get what I paid for them with a reasonable franking credit, it is way to just dump the dog.


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## Sharkman (11 December 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Can i summarise this?
> Why bother.....




well yes, probably for the majority of investors it should be thrown straight into the virtual wastepaper basket, which is basically what i did with the original offer.

but i do think the revised terms are worth consideration for those who are in lower tax brackets or can access lower tax brackets via trust beneficiaries - if you can snag a low (or even zero) discount and are looking to reacquire the deltas as soon as practicably possible afterwards, that's a good chunk of franking credits for fairly little risk.

eg. if the VWAP turns out to be say 20.85, i can try throwing all of my units in at 0% on feb 11, find out how many were accepted on feb 14, divide that by 100 and immediately slap on a mar 20.50-21.00 risk reversal for that many contracts to dodge the wash sale rule and get my delta back when it expires. i'd get to pocket 4.08 of franking credits, book a capital loss which will come in handy as i've already taken a bit of capital gains this year, and keep my position (give or take) in exchange for slippage risk from feb 11 -> feb 14 and the cost of the risk reversal.


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## divs4ever (11 December 2021)

if i sold  my ( very small  ) WBC holding would i buy back  ,  after all that holding was a result of still participating in the DRP   but selling them ex-div. 

 i decided to sell the WBC  when it was clear to me they were more focused on virtue-signaling  than fixing legacy issues  , but mistimed the decision ( for a tidy exit )


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## KevinBB (31 December 2021)

This must be the most unloved large cap stock on ASF. I haven't seen a good word written about the company, the directors, or their policies.

So, this is my contrarian selection, and my #2.5 selection (there was a tie for second place with BLD), for the 2022 Full Year Tipping Competition. If no one likes it, it is sure to perform well.

KH


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## PZ99 (3 February 2022)

Not much happening at Westpac at the moment 

03/02/2022    9:07AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Initiated with A$25.00/Share Price Target by UBS (headline only)
03/02/2022    9:07AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Initiated at Buy by UBS (headline only)
03/02/2022    8:37AM         Dow Jones    Westpac 1Q Profit Up 80%, Unveils Operating Structure Changes -- Update
03/02/2022    8:05AM         Dow Jones    Westpac 1Q Profit Up 80%, Unveils Operating Structure Changes
03/02/2022    7:51AM         Dow Jones    WBC Expects Additional Restructuring Charges in FY22 as It Refines Changes, New Roles 
03/02/2022    7:51AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Expects to Incur Small Restructuring Charge in 1H (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:50AM         Dow Jones    Westpac: David Stephen to Remain in Current Role Until May (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:50AM         Dow Jones    Westpac: Ryan Zanin Appointed Westpac Group Chief Risk Officer (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:50AM         Dow Jones    Westpac: Les Vance, Group Executive, Financial Crime, Compliance to Leave Later in Year 
03/02/2022    7:49AM         Dow Jones    Chief Risk Officer Group Exec, Financial Crime, Compliance Roles to Be Combined 
03/02/2022    7:49AM         Dow Jones    Westpac: Chief Risk Officer David Stephen Has Decided to Leave (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:47AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Says It Will Reduce Corporate Functions Size by Around 20% (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:47AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Says It Will Restructure Management Team (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:46AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Says It Will Create Smaller, More Focused Head Office (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:45AM         Dow Jones    Westpac CFO: Bringing Forward Simplification Plans, Changing Operating Structure 
03/02/2022    7:45AM         Dow Jones    Westpac CFO: Environment Highly Competitive, Continue to See Pressure on Margins 
03/02/2022    7:44AM         Dow Jones    Westpac: Lending Up 0.7% Over 1Q Across Institutional, Mortgages, New Zealand 
03/02/2022    7:44AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Says Asset Quality Metrics Continue to Improve (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:44AM         Dow Jones    Westpac: 1Q Impairment Charge of A$118M Related to Covid-19 (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:43AM         Dow Jones    Westpac 1Q Expenses A$2.7B (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:42AM         Dow Jones    Westpac CET1 Capital Ratio 12.2% at End-Dec (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:42AM         Dow Jones    Net Interest Margin 1.91%, Down 8 Basis Points on Quarterly Average for 2H21
03/02/2022    7:41AM         Dow Jones    Westpac 1Q Unaudited Statutory Net Profit A$1.82B (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:37AM         ASX    Westpac Pillar 3 Report (December 2021) (headline only)
03/02/2022    7:37AM        ASX    Westpac Pillar 3 Report (December 2021)  (23 Pages)


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## sptrawler (3 February 2022)

PZ99 said:


> Not much happening at Westpac at the moment
> 
> 03/02/2022    9:07AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Initiated with A$25.00/Share Price Target by UBS (headline only)
> 03/02/2022    9:07AM         Dow Jones    Westpac Initiated at Buy by UBS (headline only)
> ...



Obviously 0% interest in the buyback, what a bunch of muppets.
I thought this statement a classic:
 Unaudited cash earnings of $1.58bn were up 74%, excluding notable items, up 1%
The way they are going there will be the three pillars of Australian banking. 🤣


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## PZ99 (3 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously 0% interest in the buyback, what a bunch of muppets.
> I thought this statement a classic:
>  Unaudited cash earnings of $1.58bn were up 74%, excluding notable items, up 1%
> The way they are going there will be the three pillars of Australian banking.



You're not wrong.... maybe they'll need a cap raise to deal with inflation and stricter LVR levels 🤣

So instead of having a cash reserve they tried to give it away by buying their own discounted shares.

If you must throw money away do a special divvy


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## divs4ever (3 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously 0% interest in the buyback, what a bunch of muppets.
> I thought this statement a classic:
>  Unaudited cash earnings of $1.58bn were up 74%, excluding notable items, up 1%
> The way they are going there will be the three pillars of Australian banking. 🤣



???  CBA , BOQ and BEN  ?


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## sptrawler (3 February 2022)

PZ99 said:


> You're not wrong.... maybe they'll need a cap raise to deal with inflation and stricter LVR levels 🤣
> 
> So instead of having a cash reserve they tried to give it away by buying their own discounted shares.
> 
> If you must throw money away do a special divvy



Shareholders wont be happy. 
If the idiots looked after the shareholders, the punters will look after the price, muppets.


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## peter2 (9 February 2022)

Has anyone else noticed that *WBC* has jumped >10% in the last week?


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## Sharkman (9 February 2022)

it's VWAP week for the buyback, can't help but wonder if there's some weird shenanigans related to that going on


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## frugal.rock (9 February 2022)

Yeah... but... 

I'm about to end a filthy 35+ year relationship with them.
Over the years, it has been all take.
Total bankers with that big red capital W...

1 update to their broking app over the last 3 years and that was just a charting upgrade to the same as what you get off the ASX page... can't even place a stop loss order with it.
5x branch closures where I've lived over the years. Current location closed now not even with a fee free atm available ! 😠🤬


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## Sharkman (10 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Yeah... but...
> 
> I'm about to end a filthy 35+ year relationship with them.
> Over the years, it has been all take.
> ...




i have mixed feelings about them

the stock's return over the several years i've held them have been lacklustre, with the last few being particularly bad, just one nasty surprise after another

but OTOH they used to provide the prizemoney for one of the Aust schools maths competitions back when i was a kid (maybe they still do), i somehow managed to fluke a few prizes in that comp over my school career, and fortuitously ended up exchanging those winnings for about 200 (pre-split, so about 600 today) CSL shares at the IPO so... as frustrated as i am with the company performing like absolute dogs#$t in recent times, i have to at least give them their dues for sponsoring that comp all those years ago


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## divs4ever (10 February 2022)

Sharkman said:


> i have mixed feelings about them
> 
> the stock's return over the several years i've held them have been lacklustre, with the last few being particularly bad, just one nasty surprise after another
> 
> but OTOH they used to provide the prizemoney for one of the Aust schools maths competitions back when i was a kid (maybe they still do), i somehow managed to fluke a few prizes in that comp over my school career, and fortuitously ended up exchanging those winnings for about 200 (pre-split, so about 600 today) CSL shares at the IPO so... as frustrated as i am with the company performing like absolute dogs#$t in recent times, i have to at least give them their dues for sponsoring that comp all those years ago



 in 2011 i picked WBC  as best of the ( BIG 4 ) bunch and bought some more in 2020 , as Sharkman has said  they just keep going from  stumble to stumble with the odd 'virtue-signal' thrown in.
 they have bad enough when they just concentrated on banking  ,  but now they are trying to save the planet as well ( or will that make them only half as bad at banking  , as previously )

 ( i did dabble in ANZ later but they lost their way as well , so are completely exited ) 

 i did intend to exit WBC but mistimed the exit  leaving me with a handful of DRP shares  ( still DRPed  )

will stick with the regional banks as they still have some room to grow ( and hopefully learn to do banking better  )


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## KevinBB (10 February 2022)

KevinBB said:


> This must be the most unloved large cap stock on ASF. I haven't seen a good word written about the company, the directors, or their policies.
> 
> So, this is my contrarian selection, and my #2.5 selection (there was a tie for second place with BLD), for the 2022 Full Year Tipping Competition. If no one likes it, it is sure to perform well.






peter2 said:


> Has anyone else noticed that *WBC* has jumped >10% in the last week?




Yes! It looks like the contrarian bet is working at this very early stage.
KH


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## peter2 (10 February 2022)

I tend to agree with @Sharkman 's comment about the trading activity being correlated to the buy-back timing. Very few people were going to sell at the lower price but now that there's an extra 10% it may encourage a few more to participate. 

I'm not participating in the buyback as bought them for the oversold rally. I lost a few fingers trying to catch the falling knife (as you may have noticed in my chart). I've had them on ice for a few weeks and this price rally will pay for sewing them back on.


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## spratty84 (10 February 2022)

Im a bit annoyed i sold out at 20.5 to free up some cash for other possible opportunities and to diversify ( i have bank exposure with ben nab anz). I was in at low 15 during the covid plunge and did get a few divys in between.


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## Sharkman (10 February 2022)

i'm chucking all my units into the buyback at a 1% discount, just in case the majority go in at 0% due to the stock's poor performance since the buyback announcement (IIRC it was somewhere around $25 at the time, so even with the recent rally it's still well below those levels). but i have absolutely no idea what's going to happen. could miss out entirely, could get them all without scaleback, or anything in-between

this sudden movement does pose a bit of a risk, the VWAP will likely be a fair bit lower than the friday close at this rate, increasing the chance of slippage for the monday risk reversal. but the potential franking credits at a 1% discount are sufficient compensation for that risk i think


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## sptrawler (10 February 2022)

Sharkman said:


> i'm chucking all my units into the buyback at a 1% discount, just in case the majority go in at 0% due to the stock's poor performance since the buyback announcement (IIRC it was somewhere around $25 at the time, so even with the recent rally it's still well below those levels). but i have absolutely no idea what's going to happen. could miss out entirely, could get them all without scaleback, or anything in-between
> 
> this sudden movement does pose a bit of a risk, the VWAP will likely be a fair bit lower than the friday close at this rate, increasing the chance of slippage for the monday risk reversal. but the potential franking credits at a 1% discount are sufficient compensation for that risk i think



I've been nibbling away at these prices, even though I have quite a few in the SMSF. The franking credit is tempting, but I expect the share price and div/ to appreciate in line with NAB/ANZ, so I'm holding.
 A lot of money is required for this "transition to green", so one way or another the big 4 will be supplying a lot of it IMO. 

By the way did you hear the orchestral music fire up in the background, when I typed "transition to green", spooky. 🤣


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## Sharkman (10 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I've been nibbling away at these prices, even though I have quite a few in the SMSF. The franking credit is tempting, but I expect the share price and div/ to appreciate in line with NAB/ANZ, so I'm holding.




oh i'll be holding too, i wouldn't want to sell now either, not when they've just been beaten down so badly. after checking what got bought back next week i'll be slapping on a risk reversal to get the units back in mar or apr.

i expect this week's movements will be unfavourable for the strategy, as VWAP probably ends up somewhere around 22 whilst the risk reversal might have to be done against a 22.50'ish underlying, but a 1% discount should make it quite profitable, i'm basically just gambling that a lot of holders either won't participate or won't take a discount.

it's entirely possible that a 1% discount isn't enough to get any units bought back at all, rendering the whole thing moot!


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## divs4ever (10 February 2022)

am holding my few  with the DRP maybe i will end up with 10 or even 15  shares  , before i  pass on 

 who knows maybe the board will get a kick in the butt and return to concentrating on banking ( properly ) .. in my lifetime


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## qldfrog (10 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> who knows maybe the board will get a kick in the butt and return to concentrating on banking ( properly ) .. in my



Mr @divs4ever is a hardcore optimist..or fully high😊


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## divs4ever (10 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Mr @divs4ever is a hardcore optimist..or fully high😊




 well the meds  help a bit  , one hits me like two bottles of whisky  a day  ( at PBS prices what a bargain )

 but yes former co-workers used to CRINGE  when they finally realized i was an optimist  ( and things really could get MUCH WORSE , and sometimes did  AFTER being ridiculed as a doom merchant ) 

 i remember back when i paid rent at WBC  , and they had this promo for new customers .. a black roll-down beanie  and remarked to the teller at the time  ' are you sure you really want to attract the type of clientele  ( armed robbers )' 

 reply ... 'i hadn't thought of that '  which i found totally bizarre in that area  ..  ( you could gauge the drug abuse   by counting the used syringes  on the way to the bank/shopping centre )

 BUT on the bright-side  i did ( am doing ) very well on BTT ( now PDL )   and made a profit during the WBC investment adventure


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## Sharkman (14 February 2022)

turned out to all be a pointless exercise in the end - discount was 6%, so a buy back price of 20.90 with a capital component of 11.34 (14.58 taxable) and a dividend component of 9.56 (4.10 franking).

guess it all worked out for the best in the end. a 6% discount in light of the recent price movements, the small div component and the excess tax value seems like a terrible deal (for the investor, so probably a good deal for WBC themselves, possibly a factor in the strong rally today). totally fine with getting none of my units bought back seeing the way things played out.


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## frugal.rock (14 February 2022)

Sharkman said:


> i have to at least give them their dues for sponsoring that comp all those years ago



Pooey.
Just advertising and stamping their "W" brand in young impressionable minds...
The comp existed before Westy sponsored it. Probably helped it go mainstream and spread (like a disease) to other countries. I'll give em credit for that.

I got a credit and distinction in said competition in my youth, but no money.
(Won some money x2 from industry groups via mature age dux study though.)

To have won cash, I take my hat off to you.


----------



## sptrawler (14 February 2022)

Sharkman said:


> turned out to all be a pointless exercise in the end - discount was 6%, so a buy back price of 20.90 with a capital component of 11.34 (14.58 taxable) and a dividend component of 9.56 (4.10 franking).
> 
> guess it all worked out for the best in the end. a 6% discount in light of the recent price movements, the small div component and the excess tax value seems like a terrible deal (for the investor, so probably a good deal for WBC themselves, possibly a factor in the strong rally today). totally fine with getting none of my units bought back seeing the way things played out.



Im pleased I nibbled away at the recent low prices, everything eventually goes back to the long term trend, even for WBC IMO.


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## Sharkman (14 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Pooey.
> Just advertising and stamping their "W" brand in young impressionable minds...
> The comp existed before Westy sponsored it. Probably helped it go mainstream and spread (like a disease) to other countries. I'll give em credit for that.
> 
> ...




credit/distinction wouldn't have gotten cash, IIRC only 500 kids (per grade) across the whole of Aust got into the prizemoney bracket. it was a massive fluke, i wasn't exactly the most diligent student growing up (preferred to hang out at the video game arcades rather than the library), so i never expected to win anything like this, let alone win it several times in a row. pretty sure i hit my mental peak at 15 and have been getting dumber and dumber with each passing year since 

naturally they didn't simply give us the cash just like that, all we got was some certificate that had to be taken to a branch, whereupon a westpac savings account would be opened with the prizemoney in it. sorta like the CBA dollarmites thing, stamping the brand onto young minds, as you say. closed the account a long time ago though.


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## bigdog (24 February 2022)

*Website unavailable due to scheduled website maintenance* 

As part of our ongoing commitment to provide the best possible experience, we are undertaking some technical work.

The website will be unavailable from *1030am to 1130am ( Note : We are still taking calls and trades manually )                        Thursday, 24 February 2022                        (Sydney time) * during which time you will be unable to:


*You can check share prices S&P/ASX 200 on link below*
Great site 









						Stock Quotes & Stock Prices - Investing.com AU
					

Complete real-time stock market coverage - streaming quotes for stocks from the most popular stock exchanges around the globe.




					au.investing.com


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## frugal.rock (24 February 2022)

Still out... Dont know why anyone would want to invest in them anymore?
Not the only data problems they have had lately.
All too little, too late.
Don't fix it till it's completely broke attitude.


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## qldfrog (24 February 2022)

Do they realise that by calling this a *scheduled maintenance* they are showing themselves as:
Actually fully incompetent if it is true  
or liars and not to be trusted if it is a system failure.
Both worse imho than stating:
Due to heavy traffic, our systems have suffered an unexpected crash, we apologise and will...
This is not a small issue....
Pathetic...


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## Sharkman (24 February 2022)

yep, strongly suspect their site has simply crashed and they're trying to isolate the cause and repair the damage. you never schedule maintenance on a weekday, especially during trading hours, if you care one iota about your customers. my money's on an unhandled null pointer exception from someone carelessly invoking a method without first checking that their object reference was not null, as a result of them building things as cheaply as possible.


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## KevinBB (24 February 2022)

Reminds me of NABTrade in its early days. Whenever there was a big down day their web site didn't work. They seem to have fixed it for now and it is working normally today, although today isn't really a big down day.

Feel a bit sorry for the retail brokers. I suspect that there isn't much work being done in any office at the moment, all the retail traders will be on their favourite brokerage web site just refreshing to see the latest prices.

KH


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## frugal.rock (24 February 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Feel a bit sorry for the retail brokers.



Oh my. I think you need to see a doctor....

No feelings for all the poorer pundits that couldn't offload on open this morning due to an inept system?

The problem was apparent yesterday afternoon around 5:30 pm or so, almost like a freakin rehearsal for today.
🙄😤


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 February 2022)

The Russians have come to WBC.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (24 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The Russians have come to WBC.
> 
> gg



cold hard cash might be useful in the coming days
(_Hermetica Digital_)


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## KevinBB (9 May 2022)

$0.61 dividend. Just over 5% annualised, plus franking. That will do me.
3 out of 3. Happy with that.

KH


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## qldfrog (9 May 2022)

KevinBB said:


> $0.61 dividend. Just over 5% annualised, plus franking. That will do me.
> 3 out of 3. Happy with that.
> 
> KH



so for the first time in years you have lost vs inflation with a successful trade?
Just saying, and no I do not do better but just to go past the joy of $ amount in your account...no refuge


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## sptrawler (9 May 2022)

Westpac boss tips house price falls of up to 15pc
					

Westpac’s Peter King expects a fall in house prices of 10 to 15 per cent over the next two years and says borrowers have capacity to absorb higher rates.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
Westpac reported on Monday its profits dipped 12 per cent to $3.1 billion in the six months to March compared with a year earlier, due to higher bad debt provisions, though earnings were up sharply compared with the September half
The board lifted the bank’s interim dividend to 61c, which will be fully-franked and paid on June 24.
Analysts had expected about $2.8 billion in cash profits, according to a broker note from Jarden, and a dividend of 59c a share. However, some were highly uncertain about the outlook for Westpac.


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## KevinBB (9 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> so for the first time in years you have lost vs inflation with a successful trade?
> Just saying, and no I do not do better but just to go past the joy of $ amount in your account...no refuge



I suppose I could look at it from the glass half full, or the glass half empty perspective. I'm a glass half full kind of guy.

As a retiree looking to preserve capital, I have allocated most of my risk capital to futures trading, and trend following in particular. For my non-risk portion, my only alternative to owning large cap shares is cash. So, with WBC's 5.something% annualised dividend, I consider myself to be well ahead.

Besides, not too many people tipped WBC in the annual tipping competition, so I'm in front there, too!

KH


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## qldfrog (9 May 2022)

KevinBB said:


> I suppose I could look at it from the glass half full, or the glass half empty perspective. I'm a glass half full kind of guy.
> 
> As a retiree looking to preserve capital, I have allocated most of my risk capital to futures trading, and trend following in particular. For my non-risk portion, my only alternative to owning large cap shares is cash. So, with WBC's 5.something% annualised dividend, I consider myself to be well ahead.
> 
> ...



Do not take me wrong, this is a good result,much better than what i achieved..you are positive at least
 i just want to highlight that even a good " according to plan " stategy so far, with good return by honest view, is not enough to even stay even in 2022...


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## divs4ever (9 May 2022)

KevinBB said:


> I suppose I could look at it from the glass half full, or the glass half empty perspective. I'm a glass half full kind of guy.
> 
> As a retiree looking to preserve capital, I have allocated most of my risk capital to futures trading, and trend following in particular. For my non-risk portion, my only alternative to owning large cap shares is cash. So, with WBC's 5.something% annualised dividend, I consider myself to be well ahead.
> 
> ...



 i didn't select WBC in the comp.  among my selections was  EVN which dipped enough to hit my target ( so bought some extra )

 so today we are both happy for different reasons 

 good on you  and good luck ( in the comp. as well )


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## bk1 (22 July 2022)

Finished basing and filling the gap...


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## BossMan. (3 January 2023)

Westpac merger with BT was smart, I liked it. I think westpac's profits will continue to grow and is the only blue chip stock of my full year competition. Reckon there is some good upside to it.


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## wayneL (3 January 2023)

BossMan. said:


> Westpac merger with BT was smart, I liked it. I think westpac's profits will continue to grow and is the only blue chip stock of my full year competition. Reckon there is some good upside to it.



Morningstar like it among the banks and I think they might be finally getting their shxt together. Not a holder yet but will be nibbling my way in at some point.


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