# Dow Jones/Nasdaq!



## Joe Blow

Discuss the U.S. market here!


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## JetDollars

I got no interest with them at this stage.


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## wayneL

I trade them.

Advantages:

 greater liquidity

 more choice

 able to short sell easily

 greater movements

 much cheaper brokerage

Disadvantages:

 time frame 

 exchange rate risk(can be mitigated somewhat)


I'll see if I can get some interest going here


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## Joe Blow

> I trade them.
> 
> Advantages:
> 
> greater liquidity
> 
> more choice
> 
> able to short sell easily
> 
> greater movements
> 
> much cheaper brokerage
> 
> Disadvantages:
> 
> time frame
> 
> exchange rate risk(can be mitigated somewhat)
> 
> 
> I'll see if I can get some interest going here




Go for it Wayne!

I'd love to learn a bit more about trading the U.S. markets.

Do you use a local broker or a US based one?


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## JetDollars

I probably stick to the Aussie market at this stage, but will explore it in the future.

Thanks Wayne


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## wayneL

Joe 

I use a US based broker www.interactivebrokers.com but funds are held in sydney in AUD.

Brokerage for shares is $0.01 per share with  $1.00 minimum


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## JetDollars

Wayne,

What software are you using for charting?


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## wayneL

Jet,

It is www.sierrachart.com

Great for US markets. Very inexpensive for a dynamic intraday package.

Unfortunately, because of the data streams available, it's no good for aussie stocks.

Cheers


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## JetDollars

Wayne,

What about ASX trading, which charting software do you prefer and currently using it?


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## Baloo

I've been in the US markets for a few years now.  In some ways I am more comfortable with it than the Aussie market but I think that will change.

As Wayne mentioned earlier, FX rates can really make a huge difference between a real gain or loss.  I've made a point of now concentrating on long term plays which will hopefully mitigate the FX issue.

One thing to take in, the ATO ring fences overseas losses so you can only offset and international loss against an international gain.

Oh, I use E*Trade US for my US trading.


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## stefan

Been trading the US market for many years, not to mention the tech crash... :'(

I've been using datek which has now become part of ameritrade. I like the level of research tools and their quick web based trading. I also used to use a daytrading package based on realtick but that was when I did try to make a living out of day trading which didn't turn out well...

Anyway, the US market certainly has its advantages and moves a lot more than the OZ market but the time difference is a real problem especially if you want to do some day trading. Well, more focused on the Aussie side of things for now. Still holding a few shares overseas but nothing worth mentioning really.


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## Bingo

Could anyone please let me know the best site(s) for following movements in the US markets overnight. I am interested in up to date movements in the Dow Jones, key stocks and commentary on what is driving movements if possible. Hopefully for free.

Bingo


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## wayneL

Here ya go

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/default.asp?siteid=mktw


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## Bingo

wayneL said:
			
		

> Here ya go
> 
> http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/default.asp?siteid=mktw





Thank you. I like the market watch window which I have set up with the US shares I want to keep an eye on and the pre-opening and after close market reports they e-mail you. 


Bingo


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## excalibur

Monday, June 27, 2005
Check Nasdaq and S&P futures


On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy on the nation's interest rates, and institutional traders ”” the big banks that run mutual funds, hedge funds and other investment vehicles ”” will react accordingly before the 4 p.m. close, attempting to strike the right balance between boosting their end-of-quarter returns and planning for future rate hikes.

After the volatility of Thursday, Friday's trading may signal the market's short-term direction, thanks to the ISM Index. The Institute for Supply Management measures the health of the nation's manufacturing sector, and its index for June, which comes out Friday morning, is expected to come in at 51.5, a slight increase from May's 51.4 reading.

A few other reports could move the markets earlier in the week, oil notwithstanding. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, due Tuesday, is expected to improve to 104.1 in June, up from 102.2 in May. However, that expectation may have been made before oil prices surged last week, so a surprise on the negative side could occur.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department will release its final figures for the first quarter's gross domestic product growth. GDP was expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.7 percent, up from previous first-quarter estimates of 3.5 percent.


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## excalibur

Markets all over the world, including the U.S., had a strong reaction due to the bombings in London. Indexes on Wall Street had a wild ride trading in the red in triple digits for the Dow and after 2:00 swinging into positive action as the markets absorbed the news from overseas and settled into the green.

Retail sales jumped for a change in June; consumers evidently like the hot weather, at least as far as spending is concerned. Wal Mart store sales were up 4.5%, J.C. Penney up 7.5%, and Target up 9.0% for June.

The 30-year mortgage dropped to its lowest rate since April of ’04 to 5.53 down from 5.63 the previous week. The mortgage associations are reporting a slew of refinancing.

The Institute for Supply Managers said that its business index of activity for the non-manufacturing sector rose 62.2 from 58.5 in May. This index measures expansion and contraction in the economy and this was the 27th rise in their numbers. Discounts by automakers helped to boost the numbers.

So what can you get for $4, how about a bottle of wine? From Napa, California comes Fred Franzia, a famous maker of inexpensive (all right cheap) wine. This time the wines are made from grapes grown in the Napa Valley, where wine usually costs more like $40 per bottle and the land to grow them six figures per acre. Franzi’s Bronco Wine label, carried mostly in westerns state markets, say they can compete in a blind tasting with any $100 bottled Californian wine.


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## excalibur

*Wall Street Eager for Earnings Season*

Wall Street Hoping for a Strong Performance As Second-Quarter Earnings Season Begins This Week

NEW YORK (AP) -- All the talk about economic growth, inflation, oil prices and interest rates can send the markets scurrying in any direction. But when it comes to stocks, there's no better indicator of performance than earnings. Second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest this week.

Looked at individually, a company's earnings are certainly the clearest indicator of whether it's a good investment. Looked at collectively, earnings should give the market some clues about the future of the economy.

The economy isn't in bad shape -- quite the opposite. Recent economic data points to solid, if slowing, growth and a low risk of inflation. But there are enough other questions that have some analysts concerned.

"Right now, earnings growth looks good. Revenue growth in the first quarter looks good. You have really good data suggesting that things are fine in the market," said Hans Olsen, managing director and chief investment officer at Bingham Legg Advisers in Boston. "But it's almost being like in the eye of the hurricane. Swirling all around us we have the housing bubble, oil prices, terror threats, trade deficits, competition from China -- what's going to hit first?"

Oil seems like a likely candidate. With FedEx Corp. already blaming rising oil prices for disappointing earnings, Wall Street will be looking carefully at other companies for similar oil-related problems. Transportation and airline stocks are already expected to be hit hard, but if other industrial earnings are affected, expect the markets to come out of earnings season on a down note.

Last week, Wall Street recovered from rising oil prices and the London terror bombings to post gains for the week. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.41 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed 1.46 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index soared 2.7 percent.

ECONOMIC DATA

In addition to earnings, the week ahead also brings a great deal of economic data that could help chart Wall Street's course over the next month. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reports on the nation's trade deficit. Economists expect the deficit to come in at $57 billion for May, the same as in April.

On Thursday, the Labor Department issues its Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation in retail prices. The index is expected to rise 0.3 percent in June, compared to a 0.1 percent dip in May. "Core" CPI, with volatile food and fuel costs removed, is expected to climb 0.2 percent, slightly more than the 0.1 percent rise in May.

The Labor Department's Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale prices, follows on Friday. June's rise in oil prices is expected to push the PPI up 0.4 percent, compared to a 0.6 percent loss in May. But core PPI is expected to rise just 0.1 percent, the same as in May.

Finally, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected after the opening of Friday's session. Economists expect the widely watched measure of consumer confidence to come in at 94.5, down from 96.0 in June.

EARNINGS

One of the most anticipated earnings reports this week comes Friday from General Electric Co. With divisions in manufacturing, media, healthcare and finance, GE is often seen as a barometer for the market as a whole. GE is expected to earn 44 cents per share, up from 38 cents per share in the second quarter a year ago. While the stock has been off a few dollars over the past month, it remains 11.4 percent above its 52-week low of $31.42 on Aug. 5, 2004, closing Friday at $34.99.

On Wednesday, technology sector favorite Apple Computer Inc. is scheduled to release its earnings after the session. The maker of the popular iPod music player has seen its share price surge 167 percent from its split-adjusted 52-week low of $14.37 on July 14, 2004, closing Friday at $38.25. Apple is expected to earn 31 cents per share, up sharply from 9 cents per share a year ago.

Among the drugmakers reporting in the week ahead, Genentech Inc.'s successful drug launches and clinical trials over the past year have given the stock a strong boost -- up 103 percent from its 52-week low of $41 on Oct. 27, 2004. The pharmaceutical company is expected to earn 26 cents per share, up from 19 cents per share last year, when it reports after Monday's session. The stock closed Friday at $83.17.


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## ob1kenobi

*Re: Wall Street Eager for Earnings Season*

Excalibur, thanks for that. A great read. I'd read something similar in some of the Aussie newspapers but nothing to that extent. Thanks!


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## excalibur

*Re: Wall Street Eager for Earnings Season*



			
				ob1kenobi said:
			
		

> Excalibur, thanks for that. A great read. I'd read something similar in some of the Aussie newspapers but nothing to that extent. Thanks!




My pleasure ob1.
I`m not amazed to hear that such information is not to be found in the papers. It is not seldom that some countries do not publicise or do publicise certain information. Either it is not that important or it should not be very important. The reasons are only to be found behind the curtains: politics.
How often have I seen breaking news in CNN that were not even mentioned of in  italian, english or german television.


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## DTM

For those interested, it seems like the Australian S&P200 or XJO or SPI are now back in step with the American Dow Jones.  We seem to have gone back into sync with them since March, when their interest raising exercises started impacting their markets.  Ours mirrored theirs in the last interest rate rise in March.  Off course the US has continued on and still has maybe one more rise.  Whether we follow or not is conjecture, but check out the 10 year T bills.

Sorry, just my ramblings again.


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## excalibur

Earnings are expected this week from: IMB, 3M, Intel, Ford, J&J, Merrill Lynch, GM, Coke-Cola, Merk, Microsoft, Google, eBay, Honeywell, Catepillar, Wachovia, Yahoo, AT&T, Altria, and Bank of America.

Fed Chairman speaks this week before the House Finance Committee on his semiannual report regarding monetary policy making. Look for analysts’ reviews on Thursday as to the interpretation of his Fed speaking comments.

Housing starts numbers will also come out this week. Look for numbers in the new houses started and for future orders on the books from the Commerce Department.

Levels of foreign investment in the U.S. rose in May to the tune of over $60 billion, mainly in Treasury notes. With the rise in interest rates, our currency is attractive, especially with a weak dollar still around versus the Euro, Pound, and Asian dollars.


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## excalibur

Half the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 have reported for the last quarter, with a majority coming in better than expected. S&P currently projects profits for the quarter will grow 10.5 percent, higher than initial forecasts.


The Federal Reserve has raised the fed funds target rate nine times since June 2004 to 3.25 percent from a four-decade low of 1 percent The Standard & Poor's 500 index has gained more than 8 percent since the Fed started to rise interest rates a little more than a year ago.


Economic data reports this week include existing home sales on Monday, consumer confidence on Tuesday, and durable goods orders and new home sales on Wednesday.


Investors also will look to the Fed's report on regional economic conditions, known as the Beige Book, on Wednesday.


Rounding out the data menu will be two more reports on Friday: the University of Michigan's final reading for July consumer sentiment and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, a gauge of business activity in the U.S. Midwest.


This Friday (7/29), the government is likely to report the U.S. economy expanded at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the three months ending June 30, compared with growth of 3.8 percent in the first quarter, according to a Reuters poll of economists


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## excalibur

The U.S. House of Representatives pushed through an energy bill with tax-credits of $14.6 billion. Credits will be given to oil, gas, electricity and renewable energy companies. The Senate is voting on this bill on Friday. Consumers get a $2,000 tax credit if they purchased a hybrid car in 2005; since most are over-priced this may take some of the sting out of the sticker price.

Is there $$$ waiting for you?

There is an estimated $23 billion in unclaimed money in the U.S. Sometimes it is an old deposit from a utility company, unclaimed stock dividends, paychecks, or insurance policies. By law companies must return these “forgotten” assets to the state treasury for safekeeping. Check out these websites to help out your quest: www.unclaimed.org, www.missingmoney.com. Do not ever pay out money or a fee to get your unclaimed funds, just look online or call your state treasurer.

Customer service is still a lost art to many companies. Experts suggest the following to any companies getting more than 1% complaints: 1. understand your customer 2. treat customers like you would want to be treated 3. be truthful, never mislead a customer 4. extend courteous service to all 5.make-up for a mistake by great effort and sincere apology, never take the customer for granted, they vote with their dollars.


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## excalibur

*Why are the indexes flat this year?*

Why are the indexes flat this year, well personal savings is way down! In a report by the Commerce Department consumer spending was up 0.8% in June and SAVINGS were at 0%, that’s right ZERO. This is the lowest since 9/11 and the second lowest since the Depression! The consumer spending is making an impact at the quarterly earnings reports but not at the indexes. This is why the study of economics is such a tricky, double-edged sword kind of science. Just when you think things are good, in some areas they’re not. Now the question is “where will the indexes go” the next six months? Time will tell.

ANY COMMENTS??????


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## excalibur

If anybody is interested in the agenda for next week, please see following:

http://uk.us.biz.yahoo.com/rb/050806/column_stocks_outlook.html?.v=1


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## excalibur

AP
Floridians Lose Millions in Hedge Fund
Saturday August 13, 7:33 pm ET
Dozens of Wealthy Floridians Lose $160 Million in Alleged Investment Con, Investigators Say

MIAMI (AP) -- Dozens of wealthy investors were scammed out of $160 million by three self-proclaimed hedge fund operators who set up flashy offices in Palm Beach County, took their money and ran, federal investigators said.

ADVERTISEMENT
Now, months after authorities became suspicious, two of the three partners have fled the country, and the third isn't answering questions from investigators.

Most of KL Financial's 200 clients were men of retirement age. Gary Klein, a lawyer representing dozens of them, told The Miami Herald that he has clients who lost everything.

The SEC has filed a formal complaint accusing KL Financial of misrepresenting the fund's performance and possibly misappropriating money. A federal court has frozen the company's assets.

Mike Tein, one of KL's court-appointed receivers, said the three men directly received $20 million during their six-year reign at KL, spending lavishly on million-dollar homes, exotic sports cars and frequent trips to Las Vegas.

Within 24 hours of a surprise visit to a KL Financial office in California in February by SEC investigators, Won Lee, 34, reportedly cashed in frequent-flier miles for a one-way ticket to South Korea. Investigators have not heard from him since.

Another partner, Yung Kim, 34, vanished a day later, but answered a surprised investigator's cell phone call weeks later. The line went dead after Yung was asked where he was, and authorities haven't heard from him since, Tein said.

Chief trader John Kim, 36, remains in Florida and has promised to cooperate with investigators. But during a March 11 deposition, John Kim asserted his Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination to each of 195 questions.

His attorney, Gregory C. Ward, said in a March 16 motion that Lee and Yung Kim were to blame for losing the firm's money "without John Kim's knowledge or participation."


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## excalibur

*What`s up this week?*

Among the economic reports scheduled for the week ahead are August producer prices on Tuesday, August retail sales on Wednesday and consumer prices and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Market watchers expect most of the data will consist of information gathered before Hurricane Katrina, which will show how well the economy was doing when the storm hit.

But the data could determine whether the Fed might take a break from raising interest rates. Rate hikes are considered a negative for stocks as they increase borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The next meeting of the central bank's policy-setting committee is scheduled for Sept. 20. Policy makers have raised the benchmark lending rate 10 times since June 2004 to 3.5 percent.

Economists polled by Reuters estimated that the CPI rose 0.6 percent in August, with a 0.2 percent rise in the core index, which excludes food and energy prices.

Last week, the Dow ended up 2.2 percent, its biggest gain in nearly 4 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 ended the week 1.9 percent higher, and Nasdaq advanced 1.6 percent.


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## excalibur

Yesterday the markets traded in the mixed category in the early afternoon hours as news from Alcoa and IBM regarding earnings sent the blue chips up slightly while the Nasdaq remained in the red. Look out later this week, as the third quarter earnings reports will start to appear.

A group of economists (52) are forecasting the GDP for 2006 at 3.3%. Part of the increase is as a result of the hurricane season this year as new infrastructure, housing, and businesses will be spending a lot of money to repair the effected Gulf States.

Look out for more Federal Reserve speeches scheduled this week as analysts speculate that the run-up in gas prices and spending in the Gulf States are pushing the economy upward and hence a need to step on the gas; meaning interest rate hikes to continue.


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## dutchie

The DOW broke even today and the NASDAQ rose 0.5%

Will this be enough to spur our markets into the green after 5 fairly flat days?

I think it will even though it is October (not by much though).

Look forward to a positive Monday if the DOW consolidates tonight.


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## excalibur

dutchie said:
			
		

> The DOW broke even today and the NASDAQ rose 0.5%
> 
> Will this be enough to spur our markets into the green after 5 fairly flat days?
> 
> I think it will even though it is October (not by much though).
> 
> Look forward to a positive Monday if the DOW consolidates tonight.




Your right Dutchie,
I forgot about the CPI data that came in today. It looks good but not on the supposed expectations of 0,9 %. She is only on 0,1 %. Retail sales are up and thats good. Monday looks bullish.
Cheers,
EX


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## dutchie

The appointment of Bernanke to succeed Greenspan as head of FRB appears to be a positive sign to analysts.

DOW and Nasdaq down overnight following good up day yesterday.

(I think the performance of DOW is trying to tell us something).

Early opening prices on ASX appear green - whats up ?? -  haven't they seen the DOW yet, Baaa Baaa.


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## supanova

I am a margin trader, I trade on the ASX, I did have a portfolio of US stocks that I traded for 2 yrs which included Dow and Nasdaq stocks, I traded through Ameritrade (used to be Datek).   I liquidated and cashed out and took advantage of favourable exchange rates at the time and in hindsight was a good time to do it as the US markets have slid sideways since.

Anyone who is invested in shares has obviously got to take a view on what is happening in America - even if you just hold Australian stocks.

Let's start with a macro view and the issues of the moment.  Inflation, inflation, inflation seems to be all anyone is talking about - how high oil prices are producing this knock on effect and how much of an influence this is going to have on company earnings and consumer habits which are interelated.

Global growth seems like it will chug along at a pedestrian level at least for the next 12months.  China keeps growing and sucking a lot of resources from our diversified miners and predictions are that this will continue indefinitely.

One thing I am concerned about is the warped size of the US current account deficit and how much of an imbalance this is in proportion to the rest of the world.  I know that deficits exist in many business structures and can be carried for many yrs - but the USA seems a little too high and sooner or later this has to be looked at.

But many US companies are cashed up with strong balance sheets and are leveraged at quite a low rate so this is a positive sign.

I will be an interesting 12 months to follow.

Some of the stocks I have traded on the US markets include:

C, UNM, JPM, PAYX, SUNW, HPQ, LLTC, DUK, AYE, SGP, GE, BMY and BIOMET


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## RichKid

dutchie said:
			
		

> The appointment of Bernanke to succeed Greenspan as head of FRB appears to be a positive sign to analysts.




I heard comments in a TV interview (Newshour with Jim Lehrer) that he is supposed to be more collaborative with his colleagues than Greenspan and that he has the academic credentials for the job (unlike some Bush cronies who get there because of some dodgy lobby group).


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## chicken

With the dow up by 173 points on friday, monday will reverse last weeks losses....man what a ride we had in October...I am sea sick and the short sellers better cover their position because if this carries on we are in for the X mas rally.......LOLOLOLO


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## Bronte

Chicken,
That should be HOHOHO!


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## amohonour

Just read some interesting comments on H/C. I dont understand charts but saying something about a diamond pattern and that the dow will probably fall. Views on the dow and its impact for the end of the year?


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## phoenixrising

Cat masquerading as a basket ball maybe?


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## wayneL

chicken said:
			
		

> With the dow up by 173 points on friday, monday will reverse last weeks losses....man what a ride we had in October...I am sea sick and the short sellers better cover their position because if this carries on we are in for the X mas rally.......LOLOLOLO




One swallow does not a summer make.

The 176 pt rise in context:


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## amohonour

It appears that to some degree people are really unsure of the markets direction so things are very volatile would love to see some stability soon.


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## excalibur

September and October  have always been terribile months in the history of stock markets. Probably because of certain events that have occured during this period: this uncertainty brings havoc on the market and all of a sudden nobody really knows what their investments are really worth.
Now that we are entering November, it would be advisable to update our startegies and to take advantage of the bearish market to BUY.
I think the next months to come are loaded with surprises. I`m happy that Bernanke is coming. New news is not always bad news...


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## DTM

amohonour said:
			
		

> Just read some interesting comments on H/C. I dont understand charts but saying something about a diamond pattern and that the dow will probably fall. Views on the dow and its impact for the end of the year?




I'm not sure what diamond patterns are either but the Dow is struggling.  Its meeting long term resistance and I can see it dropping by a lot.  Its nearly ready to fall off the edge so to speak.  

I can see it getting to 9500 personally.


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## excalibur

*Dow Jones: Breakout????*

:iagree: 

Is this the week where the Dow will breakout??
I don`t see anything that may counter it. Or dose somebody know more than I do???
Any comments?


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## michael_selway

*Re: Dow Jones: Breakout????*



			
				excalibur said:
			
		

> :iagree:
> 
> Is this the week where the Dow will breakout??
> I don`t see anything that may counter it. Or dose somebody know more than I do???
> Any comments?




"break out" do u mean up or down?

Thanks


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## excalibur

Hi Mike,

The arrow was pointing in the  "up" direction.
And looking at the latest figures...I think I ´m right.

Cheers.


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## wayneL

Oh Kaloo Kalay, Oh Hip Hip Hooray

Dow 11,000!!! Frankinsense and Myrrh all round!!!


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## tech/a

I've always said that the emerging economies have been UNDER estimated.
For the positive effects (Longterm) that they will have on established economies in the position to benefit.

While there is plenty of arguement regarding USA over spending that in itself is dwarfed by the economic spending generated and created by these emerging economies.

Some will benefit more than others and if we are smart enough AUSTRALIA could be one of the major benificiaries.

Who was it that said when everyone thinks the same (Doom and Gloom) best to be contrarian!


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## ducati916

*All,* 

The US is currently within a secular bear market. While the economy and stockmarket are correlated, one (economy) is not directly causal for the other (stockmarkets). The current climate, and preceeding three years gives  a graphic example.

Inflation, and or deflation, both movements away from price stability are however directly causal to both Bond & Stock markets in regards to their Bull & Bear cycles.

Inflation can and obviously does have serious implications for the economy, the consequences are generally much slower to make themselves felt, and you have as a broad generalization two very distinct classes if you wish, "Business and Consumer", which can be divergent from one another.

As the US is caught in the bear, selectivity, will, and has had far more impact and importance than it has had in the ASX, which has and is currently enjoying a secular bull market.

The old aphorism, "Never confuse a bull market for brains" has particular relevance, particularly for novice traders, as a bull market for equity, is far more forgiving and tends to paper over weakness in methodology and temperment.

jog on
d998


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## wayneL

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *All,*
> 
> The US is currently within a secular bear market. While the economy and stockmarket are correlated, one (economy) is not directly causal for the other (stockmarkets). The current climate, and preceeding three years gives  a graphic example.
> 
> Inflation, and or deflation, both movements away from price stability are however directly causal to both Bond & Stock markets in regards to their Bull & Bear cycles.
> 
> Inflation can and obviously does have serious implications for the economy, the consequences are generally much slower to make themselves felt, and you have as a broad generalization two very distinct classes if you wish, "Business and Consumer", which can be divergent from one another.
> 
> As the US is caught in the bear, selectivity, will, and has had far more impact and importance than it has had in the ASX, which has and is currently enjoying a secular bull market.
> 
> The old aphorism, "Never confuse a bull market for brains" has particular relevance, particularly for novice traders, as a bull market for equity, is far more forgiving and tends to paper over weakness in methodology and temperment.
> 
> jog on
> d998





Sheez Duc, How many of these things do you have? 999, 998, 916 etc etc LOL

Welcome  ( I feel some lengthy threads coming on LOL)

p.s. (you'll know me as enzo on reefcap   )


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## wayneL

So, to paraphrase, you're saying that stockpicking is very important in the Evil Empire, because of the secular bear, whereas in OZ because of the secular bull, you can hop on any old fleabitten dog and still make money?

This I can agree with and is self evident.

But does this mean you've turned bearish on the Evil Empire?...what happened to the DIA ETF's you were once desirous of?

Cheers


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## ducati916

*Wayne/enzo* 

Actually, through the grapevine, someone had already informed me of your duality of monikers.
I see *tech/a* is also over here, far too much time on his hands lazy b*****d.

As regards the US, I have revised my calculation of the DJI, the "standard" calculation was far to optimistic, and as I have developed my own inputs, erring far more to the defensive or conservative, so my view has "modified".

Having said that, this at the moment is a stealth bear, with a fairly obvious trading range currently. Volatility I believe is slowly on the increase, as volatility is driven by the influence of inflationary factors upon the Fed and their monetary policy. *BB* will it seems be hawkish on inflation, and will due to inexperience, & the time lag in data measurement, possibly overshoot.

This overshoot, will impact earnings, but more importantly the multipliers that investors will use in calculating returns. Therefore, in an overshoot scenario, we will have some big drops through the range, with the inevitable bounce & Bull rallies, thus increasing volatility.

Stockpicking, while *always important* , assumes far greater import within Bear markets than Bull markets, assuming "long" positions.
If "shorting" then the inverse would hold. As the "majority" tend to be "long", (as shorting requires some very specific skills, unless a "derivative" trader), then currently in the ASX, almost any stock will provide profit, although, the boat for the easier trades has left port. In the US, only 2003/2004 and the bounce, provided anything resembling a Bull market since 1999.

Of course that leaves your methodology of choice, *timing the market, or pricing the market* as far as my opinion goes, no contest baby!

jog on
d998


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## dutchie

DOW up 60.6 (0.55%)

ASX- looks like it might be a green day.


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## dutchie

All ords (up 50) followed DOW (up 60) yesterday.

This morning the DOW was down 26.

Looks like ASX could be a 50/50 day.


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## dutchie

All ords followed the DOW (-26) on Friday being down  -2.3

Friday night the DOW was down  -4

ASX looks like it could buck that today and be a green day.


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## dutchie

ASX just stayed in green yesterday (+5.3) lamely defying previous DOW (-3.9).

DOW down -63 overnight.

ASX could defy that again today with another green day.


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## professor_frink

hi dutchie,
               what makes you say we could have an up day today?


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## dutchie

G'day Prof.

Just by early indications (Opening auction). But looks like I'm dead wrong at the moment.

Cheers

Dutchie


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## wayneL

dutchie said:
			
		

> G'day Prof.
> 
> Just by early indications (Opening auction). But looks like I'm dead wrong at the moment.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Dutchie




Dutchie 

The SPI is the best guide. It was showing about 45 pts down.

cheers


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## dutchie

Thanks Wayne.

I'll try that in future.

Cheers

Dutchie


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## dutchie

By the way Wayne where do I find on the net charts etc of SPI???

Cheers

Dutchie


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## wayneL

dutchie said:
			
		

> By the way Wayne where do I find on the net charts etc of SPI???
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Dutchie




Hmmmm

There is nowhere for live prices. SPI opens @9:50 so by the time you get the delayed prices the ASX will be open.

You can get the overnight 24 hour chart here:http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ASI1!&o=&a=V:15&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=bar&st=

It's 20 minutes delayed but will give you a good guide

Or if you have MIRC go to othernet/#trade - you can get live prices there

Cheers


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## dutchie

All ords (-23.8) followed the DOW (-63) yesterday.

Overnight the DOW had a green day and rallied in the afternoon to be +22.1 (reaching for 11,000 again).

The ASX looks like it could buck the DOW lead and be in the red today. (SPI down overnight).


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## dutchie

All Ords finished -7.9 yesterday to go against previous DOW +22

Overnight the DOW had a green day +25.

ASX could follow suit today.


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## dutchie

All Ords (+20) followed the DOW (+25) yesterday.

DOW down -33 overnight. We could follow suit today.


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## StockyBailx

Last I heard Nasdaq chief was tryin to bye out Dow Jones, but that planned faled. I guess he couldn't keep his head above water if he he tryed.

Stocky


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## RichKid

StockyBailz said:
			
		

> Last I heard Nasdaq chief was tryin to bye out Dow Jones, but that planned faled. I guess he couldn't keep his head above water if he he tryed.
> 
> Stocky




These are both looking very bad atm, and doesn't everyone know it!


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## StockyBailx

Although there is a lot of big money involved in such a merger or bye out. I really don't think a propersition between those two would even work, would it?

Stocky.....


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## dutchie

Early signs of the US markets for tomorrow:

S & P and Nasdaq futures - down
heading for a down day ??

Oz market may continue on down tomorrow.

Cheers

Dutchie


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## noirua

My original forecast for the Dow Jones 40 was 12,500 in 2006, and this could still be achieved with oil prices and other commodities correcting significantly from this years highs.

Watch the property scene that has seen strong stock sell-offs which I think have been well overdone.


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## drillinto

US Market Heat

http://finance.myway.com/ht/mk/marketheat.html


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## noirua

A big fall in the US Dow due to weak service sector results as oil prices slip.  "Oil prices fall on concerns about economy":  http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/05/markets/bc.oilprices.ap/index.htm


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## noirua

DOW down 0.6%, S & P 500 down 0.9% and Nasdaq down 1.5%.

European markets also remain depressed:  FTSE 100 down 2.1%, DAX Extra down 2.8%, Paris Cac 40 down 2.7%, Zurick SMI down 2.3%, Eurofirst 300 down 2.1%.


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## wavepicker

DJIA is holding the 50% retrace Level and it has been a struggle down to this level of late.

The most recent pattern of the trend has a hint of an Ending Diagonal type of pattern ATM. I am looking to be a buyer at these levels with a tight stop


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## Wysiwyg

How is the DOW dropping 3000 + points in 12 days!That must be some record for the greatest drop in the time frame.

Pseudo chart of DOW 30.


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## Wysiwyg

*Kauri*, the entry and exit quote (US$) along with the chart.Click on either thumbnail to raise content.


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## kam75

I trade in CFDs on the Nasdaq and NYSE.  What a pile of **** for the past few months!  Long or Short, makes a lick of difference in this drunken market.
Interested to hear from traders trading the short side of the markets.


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## stoner

The move up in the DJIA from the low on the 27th looks like it maybe impulsive so far.

Not sure if I have my wave notations for degree of trend correct, or even numbering of my 4th wave triangle. Perhaps some more experienced wavers can help out, Ozwaveguy or tech/a any opinions?

If it is correct, then we might see higher prices here today and monday to finish wave 5. What's more it ultimately might mean higher prices after a brief correction of that impulse. 

All the best

STONER


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## MR.

Is the US in a better position by allowing easy cheap credit? 

In 2003 what if interest rates didn't go anywhere near 1% in the US!

Where perhaps would have been a reasonable support? 

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19802000.html


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## CFDTrading

*Confidence In Banking System Returning Which Could Lead To Stocks Extending Gains*

Wednesday, 11 March 2009 13:02:59 GMT
Written by John Rivera, Analyst
Full Article

The confidence in the banking sector has started to return after Citigroup forecasted that it would have its best quarter since 3Q of 2007 and U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner predicts the bank rescue plan will succeed. The positive Citigroup news helped send stocks to the biggest one day rally since late November as Citi CEO Vilram Pandit said the bank was profitable in the first two months. On Charlie Rose yesterday the Treasury Secretary said that the details for dealing with the toxic assets on banks balance sheets will be unveiled in the next couple of weeks. He expressed confidence that the plan would work but would take time to work. Banking stocks have been beaten down and many trading at multi –decade lows leaves huge upside potential for them and if they continue to receive support, it may drag the entire market higher. Meanwhile, MBA mortgage applications showed a 11.3% increase which was a reversal from last weeks 12.3% decline which will also helped fuel bullish sentiment.
*
Dow Jones     6926.49*
The DJIA futures were pointing toward a positive open as the increasing confidence in the banking sector should help lift financials higher. However, a 25.7% drop in Chinese exports in February dampened optimism overnight as the fears of a deepening global recession increased.
*
NASDAQ      1358.28*
The Nasdaq across the board gains yesterday led by a 8.06% jump in tech stocks. The sector continues to be the favorite of traders and should continue to benefit from broader bullish sentiment. 
* 
S&P 500      719.60*
The S&P 500 could benefit from continue support for financials as the sector was up 15% yesterday.


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## Lachlan6

The Dow Transports are sprinting ahead after completing a Flat consolidation pattern, suggesting much higher prices are in store. This Flat pattern is considered as very BULLISH and as the Transports have long been considered as a precursor to the main US market, higher prices in the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones looks likely.


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## noirua

Tesla's S&P 500 Debut Is Set to Put $100 Billion in Trades in Motion
					

By Michael Wursthorn and Gunjan Banerji Additions and subtractions to the S&P 500 are normally a ho-hum affair. The 509th biggest...



					uk.advfn.com


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## Garpal Gumnut

It looks as if the markets in New York are set for a fall overnight our time. 

I'll be interested to read @bigdog 's report in the morning.

From the WSJ.








gg


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## KevinBB

It was a very good quarter for those Australians who chose to keep their money invested in Australian stocks, as opposed to investing in US stocks.

It wasn't that long ago that the US market was performing much better than the Australian market, and (from memory) how the media was telling us to diversify overseas.

How the worm turns.

KH





(Data source: NABTrade)


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## SyBoo

Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN


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## waterbottle

Does this mean I should be buying? Hmmmm


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## divs4ever

waterbottle said:


> Does this mean I should be buying? Hmmmm



 i have been carefully buying ( mostly small parcels ) but i am usually out of step with the masses 

 good luck


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## qldfrog

waterbottle said:


> Does this mean I should be buying? Hmmmm



maybe in the US but we are a bit slow so we are nowhere near fear here in Oz, and even further from capitulation


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## divs4ever

i am mainly focusing on Australia  ( and  a bit in Asia/India )


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## KevinBB

KevinBB said:


> It was a very good quarter for those Australians who chose to keep their money invested in Australian stocks, as opposed to investing in US stocks.
> 
> It wasn't that long ago that the US market was performing much better than the Australian market, and (from memory) how the media was telling us to diversify overseas.
> 
> How the worm turns.
> 
> KH



Further to my post of 1 April 2022 (see above): The benefit of staying local is again shown by this end-of-week comparison between the Australian and US markets.

AU is jumping all over the US at the moment, and has been for quite a while.

Those smarter than me might want to convert the figures to AUD, however my interest in this is only in the raw index statistics.

KH





(Data source: NABTrade)


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## KevinBB

The differences are also clearly shown in this table. The Australian indices (except for XTO) are still well off their January lows, whereas the US markets are hitting new lows on a regular basis.

Its a bit hard to isolate why XTO has performed worse than the other three major Australian indices over the last little bit. One theory is that XTO has contained more tech related stocks (on a relative basis) than the larger XTL and XFL, so when markets dropped, XTO went with them. Again, those smarter than me may have a different opinion.

KH





(Data source: NABTrade)


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