# AYN - Alcyone Resources



## Bigukraine (18 November 2009)

Hi all,
I have noticed no-one has started a thread on this relisted company (formally

Macmin Silver MMN ) and i have read the MMN thread and wondered if anyone would like to contribute some information a bit more recent if any avaliable!!!!!  Any thoughts ????:dunno:


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## jancha (20 November 2009)

Bigukraine said:


> Hi all,
> I have noticed no-one has started a thread on this relisted company (formally
> 
> Macmin Silver MMN ) and i have read the MMN thread and wondered if anyone would like to contribute some information a bit more recent if any avaliable!!!!!  Any thoughts ????:dunno:




Cant contribute any imformation to you you BigukraineF but certainly there's a lot of interest with the large volumes of trade.


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## exgeo (25 November 2009)

Macmin went into administration on 3rd November 2008. At this date there were 511,098,640 shares outstanding, and the shares were 4.4c. This gave a market cap of AU$ 22.5m. At the time, the silver price was US$10.00 Oz.

AYN has 600,555,407 at the time of writing (from 17th Nov 09 presentation) and a sp of 5.4c giving a market cap of AU$ 32.5m. The silver price is US$18.60 Oz at the time of writing (25th Nov 09).

16th Nov 2009 Update to market.
AYN are undertaking a metallurgical testwork programme, the results of which are expected in H1 2010. Following this, a re-design of the processing system will be undertaken.

They are also updating the geological database with information which had previously not been entered into the database by Macmin (exgeo: sounds a bit slack to me; such lapses might help to explain why MMN went bust in the first place). After all the data has been entered, a new JORC resource calculation will be completed, and the orebody remodelled. Once all of this has been done, a decision to re-start production will be taken, depending on the economics of the project at that time.

AU$ 4m in new AYN capital was raised at 1c prior to re-listing (re-listing date was 17th Nov 09).


My thoughts
Doesn't sound to me like any of this is going to be a quick process, as the new management team are really going back to basics and not relying on anything at all provided by the previous management (perhaps wisely!). One to watch, but as production isn't imminent, or even assured, not one to bet your retirement on I'd say.


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## Boyou (11 December 2009)

Anyone have any clues on the entitelment to shares in Alcoyne of those who held shares in the now de-funct Macmin? 

I had a few,but have had no word from ASX registries on the matter.Surely shareholders in MMN are entitled to receive some of the new AYN shares?

Perhaps I better get off by bottom and contact them?


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## Warpspeed (11 January 2010)

Boyou said:


> Anyone have any clues on the entitelment to shares in Alcoyne of those who held shares in the now de-funct Macmin?
> 
> I had a few,but have had no word from ASX registries on the matter.Surely shareholders in MMN are entitled to receive some of the new AYN shares?
> 
> Perhaps I better get off by bottom and contact them?




Your share entitlement is one new AYN share for every twenty original MMN shares.

So if you had say twenty MMN shares that you paid fifteen cents for, your three dollar investment in Macmin is now worth about four cents, and falling.

The share base has exploded upwards from around 230 million to around 600 million shares. The vast majority of all these new shares are held by insiders in this syndicate of bankers.

So basically,  the original shareholders that did not take up the purchase  option in the prospectus,  now have a stake in the silver mine of  very roughly one fiftieth of what they originally had before.  
That is really going to hurt if/when  a dividend is ever offered.

Shareholders that did take up the share offer in the prospectus still now hold only a small fraction of the equity they had before, because of the massive blow out in the total number of new shares on issue.


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## Call & Put (9 August 2010)

*AYN*

What can anyone tell me about AYN? I notice its about to be digging up alot of Silver and one of the Directors has pitched in $1,000,000 in a recent placement. Sounds like a great bet at .025cents?


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## Ajax (11 August 2010)

Call & Put,

If you subscribe to Diggers and Drillers newsletter the writer (Dr. Alex Cowie)  seems to imply he has been researching this company (you need to read back issues of the newsletter and make up your own mind on this).

If so, there is a chance Diggers & Drillers may do a special report on Alcyone.

I am hoping this is soon. I hold quite a few at 2.6c. 

Diggers and Drillers did a special report on Continental Coal (CCC) about a month ago and it spiked 25% from 4.4c day before the report to 5.5c immediately after report was released and has climbed further since on the back of good ASX announcements. It also topped ASX turnover after the report was released for about 3 days straight. From Hotcopper site it seemed that quite a few knew the CCC special report by D & D was coming. 

This time around I think any special report by Diggers & Drillers will come out of the blue to stop those close to the company getting set.


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## No Gain (24 August 2010)

Ajax said:


> Call & Put,
> 
> If you subscribe to Diggers and Drillers newsletter the writer (Dr. Alex Cowie)  seems to imply he has been researching this company (you need to read back issues of the newsletter and make up your own mind on this).
> 
> ...




Hi Ajax - Have you heard any more on if this special report is going to be completed? Also is there any word anywhere as to when they might start the plant up again as silver is now back to $18 an ounce (Today in SMH)


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## happytown (26 October 2010)

resource upgrade for mt gunyan due next month

current ag resource at mt gunyan 2.106mt @ 73 g/t ag for 4,917,000ozs ag

total texas project ag resource currently 5.948mt @ 79 g/t ag for 15,109,000ozs ag

expecting to resume mining operations at twin hill mine by years end


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## laurie (12 November 2010)

I think heavy rain in the area has slowed down drilling not too sure if its enough for a JORC which everyone is waiting for before investors sees this as a worthwhile investment its a no brainer from my point of view

laurie


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## laurie (28 November 2010)

To find the true value of AYN just dig up information about SILVER or should I say the lack of silver on the world markets the major problem with AYN could be the recovery cost per ounce of silver from memory that was a major problem many years ago with many other miners the only way to cut that cost down is higher grade silver or much more of it to justify the mine life 

laurie


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## qe2infinity (5 January 2011)

any thoughts on the recent share placement of AYN @ 3.5 cents offered on a 1 for 5 existing shares for shareholders?


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## laurie (24 February 2011)

Well what a day for AYN 89% up on the placement price of .035c, JORC yet to be tabled and silver hitting an all time high topped up today as this may have left the sideways .054c sp in the past  

laurie


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## qe2infinity (26 February 2011)

The silver bull run is just getting started...with more rises yet to come, we should see AYN generating even more interest. Watch this space~!




laurie said:


> Well what a day for AYN 89% up on the placement price of .035c, JORC yet to be tabled and silver hitting an all time high topped up today as this may have left the sideways .054c sp in the past
> 
> laurie


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## mr. jeff (2 March 2011)

qe2infinity said:


> The silver bull run is just getting started...with more rises yet to come, we should see AYN generating even more interest. Watch this space~!




Can I add that the silver run has been going for a while, and it is more volatile than gold so the stocks can bite more quickly.

But good comment, AYN is definitely getting more interest. They are looking at starting production from their heaps in September, and have raised 16.7M recently to cover this cost; this means they are a nearer term producer than some of the other Ag's; plus they are to start drilling in the near term on some other "exciting" prospects Zn - Cu.

Note that the mine opening is not September, the production is to come from already extracted bearing material.

Volume has really come into this stock lately and the SP is moving strongly.


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## mr. jeff (2 March 2011)

Mining operation info



			
				16th Feb development update said:
			
		

> Subject to the on time delivery of the major components and minimal weather delays, the Company then intends to complete construction and commissioning at Twin Hills during the second Quarter of 2011, and ramp-up to full scale commercial silver extraction during the third Quarter at an initial annualised rate of 1.5-2.0Moz.
> An economic review of the Twin Hills Project was completed last Quarter, which confirmed that the operation is well placed to generate strong operating margins based on a forecast annual processing rate of 1Mtpa from the Twin Hills resource. At this production rate, the operation would generate average annual silver production of 1.5-2.0Moz (with fluctuations from year to year typical of a heap leach project) and have forecast unit cash operating costs of approximately A$13.50/oz.




1.5 Moz at $27 / oz gives $ 40M / yr from the mine, or $21M net.


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## ob1kinobi (2 March 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Mining operation info
> 
> 
> 
> 1.5 Moz at $27 / oz gives $ 40M / yr from the mine, or $21M net.




Thanks for the info Mr Jeff, much appreciated

BTW are you holding?


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## mr. jeff (2 March 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> Thanks for the info Mr Jeff, much appreciated
> 
> BTW are you holding?




ob1,

I have a small holding, nothing too serious. I will be adding very aggressively if this price action keeps up - which seems at the moment to have some gusto behind it.

Actually I have been looking at AYN for about a year and just never found their economics that appealing, the only thing I like is the near term sales and the fact that my shares are going up. Ag price is pulling away from their margins which is reassuring.

BUT I am coming to like the speed at which their plans have been cemented and actioned, so I guess you could commend the mx so far.


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## laurie (2 March 2011)

First revenue from trial silver production expected to be delivered in June Qtr 2011 this will tell the true story where AYN is heading you need to have a ticket and be on the train by then and this does not have the copper & zinc factored in the existing sp just pure silver


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## ob1kinobi (3 March 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> ob1,
> 
> I have a small holding, nothing too serious. I will be adding very aggressively if this price action keeps up - which seems at the moment to have some gusto behind it.
> 
> ...




Thanks Mf Jeff, I too have a rather small holding. 

OB1


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## zzaaxxss3401 (3 March 2011)

Doing some quick conservative calculations (1.5Moz used):
Gross income from Silver - $40.5m per year ($27/oz * 1.5Moz - guaranteed price)
Recovery costs for Silver - $20.25m per year ($13.50/oz * 1.5Moz)
P/E of (say) 10.
# Shares on register: 911,570,000

Approximate share price (valuation): $0.22c
Approximate share price (current): $0.08c

Using 2Moz for production: +33% or $0.296c

And as Laurie mentions this doesn't include Copper and Zinc.

Anyone else done any calculations of share price potential?


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## WRONG'UN (3 March 2011)

You can treble that valuation for silver at $50/oz - makes AYN nearly a 10 bagger.
Just speculation at this stage, but an illustration of the huge leverage possible with a rising silver price.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (3 March 2011)

WRONG'UN said:


> You can treble that valuation for silver at $50/oz - makes AYN nearly a 10 bagger.
> Just speculation at this stage, but an illustration of the huge leverage possible with a rising silver price.



So my calculations have *some* potential to be correct? I'd be happy with a 100-300% return in 12 months... is $50/oz realistic though? I could see the AUD retracing back to $USD0.90-$0.95 over the next 12 months, so that would affect prices a bit.


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## ob1kinobi (8 March 2011)

Anyone care to comment on one of the directors Mr Charles ? dumping 30 mil of his shares in the past week.

Or perhaps I'm reading this wrong?

Doesn't seem like a good thing to me.


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## mr. jeff (8 March 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> Anyone care to comment on one of the directors Mr Charles ? dumping 30 mil of his shares in the past week.
> 
> Or perhaps I'm reading this wrong?
> 
> Doesn't seem like a good thing to me.




Not very exciting, maybe he like the rest of the market was so surprised it managed to get out of the trading range (4-5c) that he couldn't resist. 
There have been a lot of options exercised as well, so read into this what you will. 

Directors move their stock when they think it's a good time, in between ann's and when the price is good right ?  but they have no idea whether their sp is going to be great or bad in 6 months time usually just like the rest of us, so while AYN has this nice move on , and absorbing director selling, then good.


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## laurie (9 March 2011)

I think but stand to be corrected when a director sells there cannot be an announcement for some period of time after the sell not sure what it is sorry.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (9 March 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> Anyone care to comment on one of the directors Mr Charles ? dumping 30 mil of his shares in the past week.
> 
> Or perhaps I'm reading this wrong?
> 
> Doesn't seem like a good thing to me.



The ASX announcements on the 4th and 8th March, suggests that Charles Morgan was holding around 60,000,000 shares indirectly via Seaspin Pty Ltd (Seaspin Pty Ltd, Director and Sole Shareholder, Charles Waite Morgan) before reducing his position by half with 2 separate sales totalling 30,000,000 shares.

Did a search on Seaspin Pty Ltd (http://www.seaspin.com.au/profile.html) and subsequently (as a shareholder) emailed the company for any possible further information regarding the sale. If actions speak louder than words and as an adviser to the Company CEO (no official capacity as a non-executive director), he's clearly only interested in making money... which I guess may not be a bad thing. 

Maybe he wants to buy a new house - they're apparently down at the moment.

From Alcyone's website: "... Mr Morgan has successfully identified emerging international opportunities and acquired large, early stage and strategic positions in a wide range of ventures around the world..." (And sold them when he's made a million or 3).


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## ob1kinobi (9 March 2011)

Mr Morgan also happened to increase his holdings at the beginning of Feb.

Just in time for a nice lift.

By a small amount I might add but nevertheless he's had no problem selling half his holding.

My concern is him dumping the other 30 mil.


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## ob1kinobi (9 March 2011)

Then again 16 Mill shares or 500K isn't actually loose change.


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## mr. jeff (5 April 2011)

big move for AYN today 





up 20%, hit 10c. 

AYN has as noted got production coming on very shortly and mining coming later in the year, so you could hypothesize that people are looking at using this near term producer as leverage. Also note that development costs are possibly easier on the wallet due to reopening existing mine.

If Ag runs, so seems AYN at this stage.
Don't forget SVL for that matter they have some exceptional grades.


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## EEE (7 April 2011)

Yeah looking to get in on the action with this one once it comes off the boil a little. Would love to get in under 9c. Previously held Macmin but sold out before they went on their run from 5c to 20, story of my life. Hopefully these guys can replicate those types of figures and with silver at all time highs I don't think it should be hard, could go quite nicely actually


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## laurie (9 April 2011)

No words needed just look at the buy depth! this is now gone way past the .09c resistance level everyday next week will bring on daily highs to the next resistance of .17c or there about's hopefully don't like a steep climb


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## explod (11 April 2011)

laurie said:


> No words needed just look at the buy depth! this is now gone way past the .09c resistance level everyday next week will bring on daily highs to the next resistance of .17c or there about's hopefully don't like a steep climb




Continues the nice trend today (a gap up) along with the silver price.  Trying to break down some resistance at 12 cents.

Production commencing with an upgrade expected soon makes the sole Aussie pure silver play look allright for me. 

Just had to add a few more this morning.


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## Clansman (11 April 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Doing some quick conservative calculations (1.5Moz used):
> Gross income from Silver - $40.5m per year ($27/oz * 1.5Moz - guaranteed price)
> Recovery costs for Silver - $20.25m per year ($13.50/oz * 1.5Moz)
> P/E of (say) 10.
> ...





They have well over 1.3 billion shares on their register, not the 911 million quoted here.


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## laurie (12 April 2011)

1,312,733,155 to be precise lets hope production brings in cash to push their copper & zinc projects and not to go to the market for more cash and further dilution, hopefully down the track a share consolidation could be done say at 1:5


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## explod (14 April 2011)

laurie said:


> 1,312,733,155 to be precise lets hope production brings in cash to push their copper & zinc projects and not to go to the market for more cash and further dilution, hopefully down the track a share consolidation could be done say at 1:5




Would not be too worried about the copper and zinc laurie.  Silver is the game at the moment.  They are preparing to process the old Macmin stockpile and the proven reserve alone makes this worth much more than the current price from my rough take. DYOR

We broke resistance of 12 cents yesterday and it closed 10 Euro on Frankfurt overnight so thats about .13 cents here.  Early pre-market suggest just that. 

Added to my position on the strength yesterday and feel a good trade happening.

Did my dough on Macmin but making it up here so far.


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## EEE (14 April 2011)

wish I could say the same thing. Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for this one to come down for air, surely the short-termers have got to take some profits soon or have I missed the boat. Hopefully the divergence in volume means the buyers are running out of steam. I guess time will tell but I really need to do something after liquidating half my PEN holdings


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## laurie (14 April 2011)

EEE said:


> wish I could say the same thing. Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for this one to come down for air, surely the short-termers have got to take some profits soon or have I missed the boat. Hopefully the divergence in volume means the buyers are running out of steam. I guess time will tell but I really need to do something after liquidating half my PEN holdings




What are you waiting for  its now .14c as I write this,its the same as people sitting there waiting for it to drop down by 0.005 before they buy!! Mate this is no boat but a bullet train and its an express with no station stops well you know what I mean if announcements come out, .20c is not too far off


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## pixel (14 April 2011)

EEE said:


> wish I could say the same thing. Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for this one to come down for air, surely the short-termers have got to take some profits soon or have I missed the boat. Hopefully the divergence in volume means the buyers are running out of steam. I guess time will tell but I really need to do something after liquidating half my PEN holdings



 I took profit when AYN dropped back from the obvious Fibonacci resistance. Had to scramble to buy them back when the Market proved me wrong. Am also glad about today's sell-down to close the early gap-up; the proverbial "Professionals" that close the day were busily buying at 14c. I guess we'll see 15c soon, maybe even as early as tomorrow.


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## Country Lad (14 April 2011)

pixel said:


> I guess we'll see 15c soon, maybe even as early as tomorrow.




I'm assuming 16 then 20.


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## explod (14 April 2011)

Love that point and figure chart Country Lad.  Picture tells a thousand words.

W D GANN was the master of it and he would have loved the combined trend in AYN and the silver price as it is running now.

Cheers to holders.


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## laurie (14 April 2011)

Watched YourMoneyYourCall on Foxtel tonight and again it failed to excite the commentators this is not the first  time either maybe too specititve for them


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## ob1kinobi (15 April 2011)

Lots of excitement round here, however not a lot of rational analysis.

When people start making quick $ enthusiam can tend to overide logic. No?

I bought this to have some exposure to silver. Soon to be producing, a rising silver price etc

However from what I understand, there SLV grades aren't as good as other emerging producers and there OPEX are also relatively high.

Anyone out there with some better FA?

The market cap of this Co has been rising rapidly. 

My question is, does the rising SP now reflect the value of the assets this Co actually has?

I'm not sure, so it's a momentum play for me. 

I'll keep holding, but I'm not as Bullish and perhaps a little skepitcal about some of the more recent posts on this thread re: the SP

Happy to be proved wrong of course!


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## explod (15 April 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> Lots of excitement round here, however not a lot of rational analysis.
> 
> When people start making quick $ enthusiam can tend to overide logic. No?
> 
> ...




You are correct, grades not as good as some but they are actually working on production whereas others have some time to go.   

What is happening is that the fast rising silver price is making what would be unworkale dirt come to life.

I used to be a holder of the old Macmin Silver (MMN) which is now AYN and some years back now visited the mine and kept in touch with locals.

There is a lot to any story and I no longer bother much with helping others too much, been kicked down too many times by the new wizz kids who now know it all.

So DYOR.   I am very hppy to be holding a full stake in this and with the rise in silver overnight(almost hitting $40 aussie too) this is going to fly today IMHO.



ps.  .And of course if one says too much as a holder you will be accused of ramping.


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## laurie (15 April 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> Lots of excitement round here, however not a lot of rational analysis.
> 
> When people start making quick $ enthusiam can tend to overide logic. No?
> 
> ...




So may I ask you have you an exit strategy when it reaches a certain price point! you seem to be not too sure which is totally fine but this can be a bit hard to pick the exit price


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## Sean K (15 April 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Mining operation info
> 
> 1.5 Moz at $27 / oz gives $ 40M / yr from the mine, or $21M net.



Hi Mr J, 

So, are they debt free? No more dilution? No more cash required? No further dilution at all?

Sorry, it's late for me.

Do they have a JORC?


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## Sean K (15 April 2011)

explod said:


> I used to be a holder of the old Macmin Silver (MMN) which is now AYN.



eeeeek, MMN is now AYN? Why is that? That is troubling for me old mate. On the surface of it, why?


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## ob1kinobi (15 April 2011)

laurie said:


> So may I ask you have you an exit strategy when it reaches a certain price point! you seem to be not too sure which is totally fine but this can be a bit hard to pick the exit price




Exit strategy? ... This is going to 20c right!  Just kidding

I usually let a trailing stop take care of that for me.


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## Sean K (15 April 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> Exit strategy? ... This is going to 20c right!  Just kidding
> 
> I usually let a trailing stop take care of that for me.



What is that set at?


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## explod (15 April 2011)

kennas said:


> What is that set at?




I know it may be a bit liberal but mine is a 5% drop on the previous days close and sell at market the next opening.


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## ob1kinobi (15 April 2011)

My SL is more of an insurance policy it's set below the trading range, but moves up with each price rise.

I've got one parcel where the stop is now on my buy price so the risk has been  reduced somewhat.

The other one was purchased more recently so the SL has yet to reach my purchase price.


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## explod (15 April 2011)

These old measurements of the Twins Hills project ought to wet the apetites of holders.

DYOR but I think the current share price is well under value.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...play=text&issuerId=1788&announcementId=514867

Kennas, you may be able to give us a thought perhaps.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (18 April 2011)

laurie said:


> What are you waiting for  its now .14c as I write this,its the same as people sitting there waiting for it to drop down by 0.005 before they buy!! Mate this is no boat but a bullet train and its an express with no station stops well you know what I mean if announcements come out, .20c is not too far off



Looks like it ran out of track!


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## ob1kinobi (18 April 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Looks like it ran out of track!




Seems more like a scorpion to me, plenty of sting in that tail.


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## laurie (18 April 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Looks like it ran out of track!




Time for me to top up while tracks are being replaced!


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## PT Cruiser (21 April 2011)

Fair bit of BOT action going on here today - 1400 shares at a time.


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## EEE (21 April 2011)

Finally grabbed a chunk of this one. With silver hitting $45/oz and first bars expected in May its hard to see a downside with this one. Strapped in for the ride.


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## laurie (21 April 2011)

Hit $46 then back slightly down to $45.9 today I think the next major movement will be the announcement we all be waiting for Happy Easter to all AYN holders 

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html


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## xenith69 (25 April 2011)

One of the better silver plays on ASX Imo


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## explod (25 April 2011)

xenith69 said:


> One of the better silver plays on ASX Imo




Yep, my view too and fully loaded.

Silver already up over 2% this morning.

However, via clients Jpmorgan hold more than 30% of this stock and as with most other p/m's stocks they will continue to try and hold things down IMHO.


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## laurie (25 April 2011)

$47.48 
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Look at the jump on the green line this is too good to be true I'm getting nervous


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## explod (25 April 2011)

laurie said:


> $47.48
> http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
> 
> Look at the jump on the green line this is too good to be true I'm getting nervous




No worries.  The market is the boss as always.   We do have a good trend in silver and in a good trend the old saying goes "its like climbing a wall of worry"  Winning takes b.ls

I do think that the market will run up a lot in the next few hours but stall when the comex comes back into full swing.  A lot of short contracts are trying all they can to extricate apparently so one would expect a big show and then a very sudden drop.  Good support for silver lies at about US$45.50 and a shake out/consolidation would be a very healthy thing at this stage.  We shall soon see.

As for AYN, our open Wednesday is a long way away in this tumultuous market.


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## ob1kinobi (26 April 2011)

explod said:


> Yep, my view too and fully loaded.
> 
> Silver already up over 2% this morning.
> 
> However, via clients Jpmorgan hold more than 30% of this stock and as with most other p/m's stocks they will continue to try and hold things down IMHO.




Don't know much about the share register or major holders, but how will JPM try and hold things down?

Sell into strength I take it?

There seems to be a lot of sellers @ 0.14

Not sure how this will play out. There is a lot of debate re: POS. FA Strength? vs a TA Blow off. 

Nervous Laurie ... Im not surprised.


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## laurie (26 April 2011)

I was under the impression JPM hold nominee accounts so those nominees are just like us individuals that can sell or hold without JPM permission


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## youngone (3 May 2011)

Is anyone still holding shares in AYN? The stocked dropped so much over the past days.


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## skyQuake (3 May 2011)

youngone said:


> Is anyone still holding shares in AYN? The stocked dropped so much over the past days.




Silver coming down heaps - owning the stock and all the hot money flowing out


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## youngone (4 May 2011)

I missed my Silver express train.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (5 May 2011)

youngone said:


> I missed my Silver express train.



Looks like the tracks weren't up to scratch, and it's derailed.


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## EEE (5 May 2011)

I emailed the company today asking if they had considered securing another Put contract to lock in current prices for the bars that are to be ready this month in order to insure profits against any further deterioration/sell-off/profit taking/bubble bursting etc in the silver price. 

still holding but a little rattled no doubt


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## laurie (5 May 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Looks like the tracks weren't up to scratch, and it's derailed.




Well that may be your view I just like to think a flood came through and the tracks are being replaced to allow the train to continue on


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## explod (5 May 2011)

Don't worry about any tracks,

volume change and rise against a falling silver prices says news will be soon.

Pouring due to be announced any day of silver ingots means those buying will provide the tracks.


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## xenith69 (5 May 2011)

IMO if you didnt see this opp as a top up or entry level, you may be kicking ur selves.
Diggers and Drillers buy recommendation in the wind??


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## Miner (5 May 2011)

I just sent an email to Alex Cowie at Diggers Dealers before reading this thread on AYN.

It was interesting to see last two days AYN dropped down and then rose up today by about 10%. DIggers and Dealers recommended AYN to buy after the market closed.  Dr Cowie's so called research on AYN is based on meeting the staff members of AYN and not necessarily the directors .  Do not get me wrong as often D & D publishes a recommendation and next day share goes up on the roof . So please DYOR and it is me who is not convinced on directors sale.

I struggled to see the reason however why Charles Morgan from AYN dumped 30 million shares in two lots in first week of March 2011 and never returned to buy again. I do not think he was cash strapped in race or wanted to pay his mortgage. I would borrow or sell family jewels if I am convinced on company's sucess.

Interesting and I am now questioning if D& D is helping to ramp up certain shares like AYN!!   Don't know and Don't hold

Sharing with rest of AYN enthusiastics to learn more.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (6 May 2011)

Looks like the Silver price took another hit again last night - currently down 12.55% ($34.55). It's now fallen $14.71 (29.8%) since it's high on the 28th April. Obviously with the overnight drop in silver, AYN is likely to have a bad day.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6520b326-773d-11e0-aed6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1LVnb9gFI

I've previously bought / sold and looking to buy back in again... but not until the price of silver starts heading in the right direction. Even if AYN is able to produce lots of silver ingots, they'd better hurry up (target for 1st production was May with sales revenue expected in June). With only 7 weeks to go in this Quarter, they are quickly running out of cash... $9.6m current cash, $6.5m estimated in expenses this quarter.

Twin Hills construction programme on schedule with commissioning for full-scale commercial silver extraction scheduled to commence in the September Quarter of 2011 (approximately 125,000 oz per month)... but that's 6 months since March 2011... and they are cutting it fine. I can see another capital raising in June / July to see them through to full production start up.

Looking to buy back into AYN around 5-6c after capital raising.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (6 May 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Looks like the Silver price took another hit again last night - currently down 12.55% ($34.55). It's now fallen $14.71 (29.8%) since it's high on the 28th April. Obviously with the overnight drop in silver, AYN is likely to have a bad day.
> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6520b326-773d-11e0-aed6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1LVnb9gFI
> 
> I've previously bought / sold and looking to buy back in again... but not until the price of silver starts heading in the right direction. Even if AYN is able to produce lots of silver ingots, they'd better hurry up (target for 1st production was May with sales revenue expected in June). With only 7 weeks to go in this Quarter, they are quickly running out of cash... $9.6m current cash, $6.5m estimated in expenses this quarter.
> ...



That just proves it... what ever I say... everyone do the opposite! AYN obviously just had an upgrade to a bullet-train!


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## Logique (6 May 2011)

The price of silver getting clobbered, yet AYN manages to go up 23% in a day.
Utterly baffling. Speeding ticket?


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## mr. jeff (6 May 2011)

nope, because a certain newsletter made a recommendation.
buy up to 13.5 c and may see it generating good cash by September.

full production around 1.5-2 Moz /year, costs $13.5 /oz
should have first pour soon, resource upgrade soon, new drill targets and news soon.

Much upside here at the moment.


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## LifeChoices (7 May 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> nope, because a certain newsletter made a recommendation.
> buy up to 13.5 c and may see it generating good cash by September.
> 
> full production around 1.5-2 Moz /year, costs $13.5 /oz
> ...




I just read that D&D article with interest. I was very surprised to find it doing a google search. Must be an influential newsletter to cause AYN to go up 23% when silver prices are plummeting. I wonder how many people are subscribed to it.


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## explod (7 May 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I just read that D&D article with interest. I was very surprised to find it doing a google search. Must be an influential newsletter to cause AYN to go up 23% when silver prices are plummeting. I wonder how many people are subscribed to it.




If you are into AYN (I am up to my neck) then it is a very bullish report all round.  But its just a report, one should always DYOR.   You can find the report here:-

http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/osi/issues/osi201104silver.pdf


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## LifeChoices (7 May 2011)

explod said:


> If you are into AYN (I am up to my neck) then it is a very bullish report all round.  But its just a report, one should always DYOR.   You can find the report here:-
> 
> http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/osi/issues/osi201104silver.pdf




Nice - even gives you the username and password. I'm guessing their subscription will go up as fast as AYN now.


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## explod (7 May 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Nice - even gives you the username and password. I'm guessing their subscription will go up as fast as AYN now.




Maybe not he he he, AYN has to go up first.  Knew all about AYN site before the D&D newsleter ever existed.

Visited the site just west of the Gold Coast back in 2002 when it was Macmin Silver.


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## skyQuake (7 May 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Nice - even gives you the username and password. I'm guessing their subscription will go up as fast as AYN now.




Port phillip publishing - they also do Australian Small Cap Investigator

Changes their password monthly for each newsletter


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## zzaaxxss3401 (8 May 2011)

explod said:


> If you are into AYN (I am up to my neck) then it is a very bullish report all round.  But its just a report, one should always DYOR.   You can find the report here:-
> 
> http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/osi/issues/osi201104silver.pdf



I did find the following comment very speculative:
"...So the value of this stock is very sensitive to the silver price. If the silver price rises *as aggressively as I expect*, then Alcyone’s share price rise could be spectacular..."
Hmmm... and if it doesn't.


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## explod (8 May 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> I did find the following comment very speculative:
> "...So the value of this stock is very sensitive to the silver price. If the silver price rises *as aggressively as I expect*, then Alcyone’s share price rise could be spectacular..."
> Hmmm... and if it doesn't.




I do not agree with that observation.  You will note that AYN's price rose as silver's plumeted.   AYN can produce an ounce of silver for about US$14 so a silver price north of $20 is going to be very good going forward.   

I believe also from reading various comentators over the wekend that silver may not fall much lower and we may expect a month or two of consoildation now before it begins to move up again.

When first production is announced we could expect a good rise in the share price.  Spectacular rises are more in dreamland.   Steady as she goes is what we hope for and as silver does rise, due to critical world shortages in the next year or so, then so too will we benefit with AYN in my view.


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## ob1kinobi (9 May 2011)

"Steady as she goes is what we hope for ..."

So far this fire-cracker has proved to be anything but steady.

Spec-tacular or Spec-ulative def but steady  ... no way.

Maybe this new D & D crowd will stick around, their eager to say the least!


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## digby218 (9 May 2011)

"I struggled to see the reason however why Charles Morgan from AYN dumped 30 million shares in two lots in first week of March 2011 and never returned to buy again. I do not think he was cash strapped in race or wanted to pay his mortgage. I would borrow or sell family jewels if I am convinced on company's sucess."



My understanding of Charles Morgans sell up of 30 mil shares is that it was only approx 50% of his holding in AYN. My personal research shows that the money was from another company he owns called Seaspin. I am of the opinion ( I stress its only my opinion ) that the money raised from selling AYN shares was put into other Seaspin projects. I am not sure if Seaspin is still involved or not but i believe it has previously had interests with Grand Gulf Energy...asx code GGE. I dont think there is anything on Seaspins website currently about GGE so he might have moved on from that project. 
http://www.seaspin.com.au/ 

I dunno if I am crazy or but but his sell off didnt faze me in the slightest....

As far as I am concerned Alcyone is sitting pretty with happy days to come over the next 12 months & I am not parting with 680,000 shares any time soon.


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## explod (9 May 2011)

digby218 said:


> "I struggled to see the reason however why Charles Morgan from AYN dumped 30 million shares in two lots in first week of March 2011 and never returned to buy again. I do not think he was cash strapped in race or wanted to pay his mortgage. I would borrow or sell family jewels if I am convinced on company's sucess."
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Me either, he got his shares for about 2 cents and sold half for 6 cents, just sound like sensible diversification to me.


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## EEE (11 May 2011)

The buyer pressure looks to be building back up again. I think a positive announcement could see this go for another big run. Could any chartists out there do a fib re-tracement and plot some possible target/resistance levels.


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## Pauloo (19 May 2011)

I have held since they were 3.8c and have done well.  The issue I have is that The JORC update was not that good.  The surveys are showing 15million plus ounces, but out of that only around half is recoverable 7.5million at $33oz, take away costs and taxes you are left with 94million profit for the entire project.  Company shares are valued at 151million.  Unless they strike it big or silver goes to $100oz, they are not appealing at current price.


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## mr. jeff (19 May 2011)

Pauloo said:


> I have held since they were 3.8c and have done well.  The issue I have is that The JORC update was not that good.  The surveys are showing 15million plus ounces, but out of that only around half is recoverable 7.5million at $33oz, take away costs and taxes you are left with 94million profit for the entire project.  Company shares are valued at 151million.  Unless they strike it big or silver goes to $100oz, they are not appealing at current price.




I am holder so I am biased. but I like your _first_ post.
JORC is *JORC*. I can justify holding for good production and further drilling. Pauloo I assume you are advising from a pure production fundamentals basis here with no other considerations?


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## Pauloo (19 May 2011)

Do the math yourself and see if I am fundamentally correct on Twin Hills and Mount Gunyan. Silver Spur has good results from the drill samples but look at the difficulty of extracting it. It is a long deep ore body Cost will be much greater.


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## mr. jeff (16 June 2011)

First silver produced off site yesterday.
they say on full scale production of the leach pads, there will 1.5 - 2 Moz pa which would be at a cost of about $15 per oz. 
That means a profit margin of around 15 per oz.
at 1.5 m oz per annum (lower end expected), that is net $22.5M per year from the leach.

They also state that there is about 400,000t material to be leached, with average grade 45g/t. At 45% recovery that makes 8.1Moz of silver, at 1.5Moz per year, that is 5.4 years of production ahead, making it $121.5M over that time net, plus whatever the price difference is over $30/oz. 

at $35/oz, that is $162M over 5.4 years, or $30M clear a year. 

Market cap I saw recently at about $130M so it seems that this stock not in the same state of frenzy as previously. 
Little attribution of the underground mine, will be interesting to see updated figures on this. 

Check my figures, a bit rushed, don't bank on them.

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01189694


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## explod (14 July 2011)

Looking good today, up 8% on the open.  

Gold and silver continues to rise on our open this morning which I have not observed for some time.

Recent reports from Alcyone confirm production underway with extended mine life.

Cheers to holders.


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## laurie (17 July 2011)

All of the above is based on the Silver price of around $30-$38 one of the variables to push this up is the POS I believe until POS breaks $50/oz expect to see sideway movements


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## explod (27 July 2011)

Good news from the Company today on first production.

Nice rise in the share price reflecting the change from explorer to producer.

Silver price showing strength too should continue to reward shareholders.


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## iced earth (12 August 2011)

AYN (ALCYONE RES LTD) 11 August 2011:
===================================
we could see the positive hidden divergence between the price and CCI which might cause the price rising. 





but if  it breaks down the lower line of the channel (support line), the target would be around $0.04.


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## explod (12 August 2011)

Thanks for posting the chart iced earth.

It is following the silver price very close.  With the mill working on site now the next quarterly showing the first sales figures ought to move things along.

Best Aussie (I think only pure) silver producer at the moment.  CCU will be next but end of year before production gets under way so that will be one to watch for soon.


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## pixel (12 August 2011)

I consider the 8.6-to-9c zone a must-hold; didn't quite get my fill at 8.6, but topped up yesterday at 9.8. Agree that the underlying momentum, for which I prefer to use a MACD adaptation, seems Bullish.


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## iced earth (13 August 2011)

explod said:


> Thanks for posting the chart iced earth.
> 
> It is following the silver price very close.  With the mill working on site now the next quarterly showing the first sales figures ought to move things along.
> 
> Best Aussie (I think only pure) silver producer at the moment.  CCU will be next but end of year before production gets under way so that will be one to watch for soon.




Thanks explod , you are 100% right, it follows Silver price...
I compare both price fluctuation of Silver and AYN and we can see a very strong Correlation(Yellow colour is Silver,Purple is AYN)




for Silver itself ,

 Silver might have Head& Shoulder pattern, but first should have the right shoulder completed and then break up the neckline with a considerable volume, but if it happens , Silver should be again around $50.00.




if it won’t happen and silver goes down the red line is a valid support line to hold it back.




Silver is and interesting commodity, it has both characteristics of Investment and Industrial usage, (Unless Gold which is almost all Investment purposes) so sometimes it has not the same pattern as gold and more complicated fundamentally to predict it's movement...


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## iced earth (20 August 2011)

*Silver - 19 August 2011*
================================
Silver is braking the neck line of the  Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be  around $50.00 .


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## iced earth (23 August 2011)

iced earth said:


> *Silver - 19 August 2011*
> ================================
> Silver is braking the neck line of the  Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be  around $50.00 .
> 
> ...




Now, silver had a pullback to the neck line after breaking up that in a mentioned Tilted H&S, Target would be around $50.00


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## iced earth (22 September 2011)

AYN-22 Sept 2011:

Investors should be careful for this channel, with considering the Silver price around $37.00 , the lower line of channel might be broken...


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## Miner (11 April 2012)

Last posting was Sept 2011 and then nothing.

AYN used to be traders (some) favourite, some brokers heavily  recommended it, good reports in March, but today it flogged to its all time low value in 12months.

significant volume 11 m shares traded today until now.

Is there some bad news even if gold got flogged today?

My previous parcel was at .082 so I topped it today at .067 bringing the average lower at .070. 

Hopefully there is no CR considering the mining conference presentation late March was glowing.

Any one is following or willing to provide some considerable opinion?

Cheers


----------



## Miner (11 April 2012)

after heavy trading volume the trade got stuck since 15 minutes before closing - 3.44 pm onwards no trade until 3.54 PM. some one bought at .068 and then it was a transfer. Then the price dived again at .067 - but very low volume.
for a change with my buying, the share price went up by.001 since I bought .
I am getting a uncanny feeling that there are interested parties unloading it for profit booking or to accumulate wealth to buy at CR - all speculfation until market closes and we find some surprise.

still looking for comments from silver/AYN traders/ followers.


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## mr. jeff (12 April 2012)

Hi Miner,

I don't have much to add to your thoughts, except that I have been following CCU for some time and have found that silver stocks are just not attracting attention at the moment. 
I would put this down to the volatility in the silver market which makes it dangerous in periods when the overall conditions are shaky, particularly to large holders/buyers. 
I have noted that CCU has had extremely low volume leading up to production and AYN similarly has had very little serious trading from what I see at a glance.
I would expect that there will be little action in these stocks - including ARD but excepting IVR, until there is some stabilization and/or further stimulus in the US which may provide impetus for a further move in precious metals.

I will add more when I know something worthwhile.


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## pixel (12 April 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> Hi Miner,
> 
> I don't have much to add to your thoughts, except that I have been following CCU for some time and have found that silver stocks are just not attracting attention at the moment.
> I would put this down to the volatility in the silver market which makes it dangerous in periods when the overall conditions are shaky, particularly to large holders/buyers.
> ...



 Price of silver has dropped back below 50% of this year's trading range. 




Compared to that, AYN has however been punished far more severely. 
Do punters, by any chance, see a problem that the floods may have created? e.g. wash-out of heap leaching? The rains may well have diluted the acid to being ineffective. Maybe the company could issue a statement to allay such concerns?

Should the potential H&S pattern play out, some further downside must be expected.


----------



## Miner (12 April 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> Hi Miner,
> 
> I don't have much to add to your thoughts, except that I have been following CCU for some time and have found that silver stocks are just not attracting attention at the moment.
> I would put this down to the volatility in the silver market which makes it dangerous in periods when the overall conditions are shaky, particularly to large holders/buyers.
> ...






pixel said:


> Price of silver has dropped back below 50% of this year's trading range.
> 
> View attachment 46705
> 
> ...




Thanks Mr Jeff and Pixel  for throwing some commentary on silver and AYN.
Well with market is up, AYN has receeded further south. So as Pixel suspected, there could be just not silver price but more specific site issue.
I will not jump into conclusion and wait to see.

Many thanks again


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## AllAussie (20 April 2012)

Quarterly report is out today, with no major issues reported, apart from the continued slow ramp up due to the rain.

The only other thing of note is the disposal of the Rivertree JV?

Still not sure why its taken such as hammering the past few weeks...


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## Miner (30 April 2012)

the open secret has come out of the closed bag from AYN.
They either asked for some capital or going to raise capital.
Trading halt. either way the SP will go south once the halt lifted


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## AllAussie (30 April 2012)

I hope the capital is to be used for an aggressive drilling program 

Would have thought they would be expecting to be running at a profit before the end of the year and using it to fund further exploration.

Surely they cant need that much more capital right now


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## Miner (3 May 2012)

Yesterday AYN called for suspension and my buy order has been deleted by ASX
so the capital raising is a Dunne Deal . With market in general south in overseas and ASX, AYN will go further south


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## AllAussie (10 May 2012)

Another trading halt???????


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## Miner (11 May 2012)

AllAussie said:


> Another trading halt???????




Unfortunately that is very true
If you have looked into the share price dived before closing, bidder price and now DJ index slump in continuity (thanks to Mr Obama and support for Gay Marriage) to let the market react (about him not going to be reelected for sure ), I will not be surprised if the trading halt (related to CR) will be cancellation of the earlier CR deal.
So AYN back to square one with no investor to put money.
Flip side - it is a good silver mines and ripened for a take over


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## Miner (14 May 2012)

Miner said:


> Unfortunately that is very true
> If you have looked into the share price dived before closing, bidder price and now DJ index slump in continuity (thanks to Mr Obama and support for Gay Marriage) to let the market react (about him not going to be reelected for sure ), I will not be surprised if the trading halt (related to CR) will be cancellation of the earlier CR deal.
> So AYN back to square one with no investor to put money.
> Flip side - it is a good silver mines and ripened for a take over




With accepted lower price for CR 4.8 cents the market will take a heavy stick to hammer it further.
Where are those brokers who heavily recommended AYN as a buy.
Not grapes are sour, but still I fail to understand market behaviour on discounting this so low.
Any way I will hold without an exit plan for it now


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## PT Cruiser (15 May 2012)

Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?


----------



## CanOz (15 May 2012)

A bit of falling knife at the moment...


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## skc (15 May 2012)

PT Cruiser said:


> Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?




You've just answered your own question.



CanOz said:


> A bit of falling knife at the moment...




Like all precious metal stocks. They are not so precious in the last 3 months.


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## Miner (16 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> A bit of falling knife at the moment...




Good graph. Not knowing much on this analysis, I could see AYN has crossed south of the support zone.
Is it mean a signal of free fall ?


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## Miner (16 May 2012)

PT Cruiser said:


> Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?




You call yourself a novice !! A million dollar question. When the investors get duped with dummy broker reports, impressive projection by another set of brokers (because they will get the commission no matter how the future price behaves) there are often cash rich investors who put their money to buy at 0.048. Remember the same people offered a higher price only few weeks back.

Tell tale sign (I hate to say even if I am holder) the so called investors have money but do not have knowledge of market . It is like James Packer investment  and not like Robert Milner's investment.

So AYN crossed below 4 cents and probably there will be another announcement  for further price reduction.

Well if I have had disposable cash then I would have invested in AYN now because the technical strengths are great excepting (like me) no cash in bank


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## hangseng (16 May 2012)

Miner said:


> You call yourself a novice !! A million dollar question. When the investors get duped with dummy broker reports, impressive projection by another set of brokers (because they will get the commission no matter how the future price behaves) there are often cash rich investors who put their money to buy at 0.048. Remember the same people offered a higher price only few weeks back.
> 
> Tell tale sign (I hate to say even if I am holder) the so called investors have money but do not have knowledge of market . It is like James Packer investment  and not like Robert Milner's investment.
> 
> ...




Hi Miner, wow, what a mess. What the hell has happened here????

I read the said reports and all very favourable, now a CR that has been lowered and unless a recovery in the sp maybe as you say lower again. Never have I seen anything like this. Probably to state the obvious, this is either way oversold as indicated in TA or something is fundamentally wrong here. The latter I will have a look at. 

I know the Ag, Au and Cu price have all been hit. However I recall ABY getting hit hard in the GFC and falling Cu price and it rebounded dramatically. The outlook for Cu and Ag, in particular Cu IMO is outstanding, regardless of the Greek mess. I smell a way oversold position here and if it is will consider taking this up if my review shows no fundamental problem.

Technically AYN must hold here or will go to around 2.5/2.7 it seems. As I type buyers coming in, or is that simply shortsell covering at this level? Oh for a crystal ball...

Anything you can enlighten me to during this review miner I would appreciate.

Cheers
HS


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## Miner (16 May 2012)

hangseng said:


> Hi Miner, wow, what a mess. What the hell has happened here????
> 
> I read the said reports and all very favourable, now a CR that has been lowered and unless a recovery in the sp maybe as you say lower again. Never have I seen anything like this. Probably to state the obvious, this is either way oversold as indicated in TA or something is fundamentally wrong here. The latter I will have a look at.
> 
> ...




Thanks HS. May be your writeup on AYN evoked some sleeping investors for AYN. I will review further but it is time to sleep -
Cheers


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## explod (16 May 2012)

Miner said:


> Thanks HS. May be your writeup on AYN evoked some sleeping investors for AYN. I will review further but it is time to sleep -
> Cheers




On a turn up of pm's this one will be ripe for picking in my view.

Recent cash raising has been filled at .048 so any uplift will see a rise beyond that level.  Fear of course rules at the moment but the action today on the chart looks like a bottom.


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## AllAussie (17 May 2012)

PT Cruiser said:


> Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?




The free attaching options might draw a few buyers in...even if the initial CR price is higher than the market


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## AllAussie (31 May 2012)

Anyone taking up the SPP at $0.048?


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## WRONG'UN (1 June 2012)

explod said:


> ..........but the action today on the chart looks like a bottom.




So far you're not wrong, Explode.

Pessimists would say we have a bearish flag.

Optimists would be thinking higher low in the $A silver price.

AYN looks like a reasonable bet to me.


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## hangseng (1 June 2012)

Miner said:


> Thanks HS. May be your writeup on AYN evoked some sleeping investors for AYN. I will review further but it is time to sleep -
> Cheers




LOL maybe, maybe not miner....


No matter what I have seen enough and decided to buy.  AYN bounced on volume from the 2010 suport levels and has held that well. It may reteset that again (3.7) or may not, regardless fundamentally this is a buy for me as they are ramping up the project as a producer and the silver price is bottoming. The latter I am in no doubt will rise higher.

Either way for me this is an entry point today I am very comfortable with based on both a good TA entry point and sound fundamentals. Between Sept-Dec this year I will know if I was right fundamentally or not.

I have my stop set at 3.5, just below the last low of 3.7 just in case I am wrong technically. But I have a feeling AYN is now well oversold on the recent negative market sentiment and panic/EOFY/short selling and will rebound from here. Especially if short selling kicks in.

Let's see what pans out.


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## Miner (2 June 2012)

hangseng said:


> LOL maybe, maybe not miner....
> 
> 
> No matter what I have seen enough and decided to buy.  AYN bounced on volume from the 2010 suport levels and has held that well. It may reteset that again (3.7) or may not, regardless fundamentally this is a buy for me as they are ramping up the project as a producer and the silver price is bottoming. The latter I am in no doubt will rise higher.
> ...





HS

Thanks for your detailed post.
For clarificaiton my comment 'time to sleep' came as a metaphor. But when I wrote it was 11 PM at Vancouver I meant to be sleeping only to realise that came literally true 

Market is crashing not because of any technical reasons. It is primarily because Greece and Spain effect and idiosynchrocy of EU. So today DJ index almost crashed 248 points and another two hours to get the DJ Closed down. Job growth in US has dived down (ironically only one day back they predicted the same will be better). Aussie Job market unfortunately is not improved in real terms (guess). So ASX will follow the suit on Monday (is it a PH nation wise or only in WA ?).

My gut feel is AYN with other good quality stocks will give the opportunity to build up for the bargain hunters. Whether it will be 3.7 or 3.5 who knows ? I am putting a buy order at 3.5 to average out previous purchase.


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## hangseng (2 June 2012)

Miner said:


> HS
> 
> Thanks for your detailed post.
> For clarificaiton my comment 'time to sleep' came as a metaphor. But when I wrote it was 11 PM at Vancouver I meant to be sleeping only to realise that came literally true
> ...




Only in WA Miner, Foundation Day. Unfortunately no public holiday in Jakarta though just more work.

I find it hilarious that one day the US sells off for whatever reason, then the next day it goes up because of some other reason. Big traders having their way with us lol...

I entered AYN with only a small parcel and will wait to see what pans out. It does look like it will hold current levels and may even range from here until drill and production results later this year. If it bounces from 3.7 again on volume I will increase my position, if not and hits 3.5 then I will get stopped out.

Quite interesting project wise at the moment. BHP and RIO publicly stating they are pulling back on major projects, yet here in Indonesia we are getting more and more enquiries daily than ever before. We and others are taking the latest from BHP and RIO with a grain of salt. BHP has been looking for an excuse to delay Olympic Dam and the Labor govt handed it to them on a carbon and MSP tax platter. The Port Hedland "delay" isn't a delay at all, the decision to expand the port was supposedly always the end of 2012. Yet my daughter in PH tells me the expansion has already commenced lol. Albanese is clever and IMO. He and Kloppers decided this over a lunch on the Swan and is a furphy that will become very clear upon a change in govt.

AYN I feel sure will benefit from this volatility and what I believe will be an inevitable rise in the Ag price. If they strike more Ag (IMO they willwith infill drilling) and the added benefit of Au and possibly good Cu shows, then the AYN sp will rise back up again. If the planed production expansion and lower opex targets are met then a significant re-rating could occur.

Anyway just my Saturday morning ramblings laying down in bed overlooking a very smoggy Jakarta today. Visibility lucky to be 500m from my 24th floor apartment this morning....me to back for a nice sleep in

Take care mate.


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## hangseng (5 June 2012)

Good luck miner, AYN beginning to look promising. A break from 4.2 may just see a test of that wide open gap at 5.5/6.0.

Has been a bit of supply around this last few weeks at 4/4.1 but has seemingly dried up. If it has then I would expect some short covering to begin. Held well in the market fall yesterday and I added to my position when I saw the testing of supply and little reaction. Looking for a break on volume to possibly take another parcel.

So far so good.


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## explod (5 June 2012)

hangseng said:


> Good luck miner, AYN beginning to look promising. A break from 4.2 may just see a test of that wide open gap at 5.5/6.0.
> 
> Has been a bit of supply around this last few weeks at 4/4.1 but has seemingly dried up. If it has then I would expect some short covering to begin. Held well in the market fall yesterday and I added to my position when I saw the testing of supply and little reaction. Looking for a break on volume to possibly take another parcel.
> 
> So far so good.




Did not think they could short minnow stocks.

What's your angle ?

I do hold by the way and see good opportunities with a rise in silver which will translate into a good deal on the share issue capital raising underway soon for holders.


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## hangseng (5 June 2012)

explod said:


> Did not think they could short minnow stocks.
> 
> What's your angle ?
> 
> I do hold by the way and see good opportunities with a rise in silver which will translate into a good deal on the share issue capital raising underway soon for holders.




They can and are shorted like any other stock. Also CFD brokers "borrow" stock and do just that.

"Angle" ???

Read the post, no "angle" just my thoughts on what MAY occur. Is that not what forums are for?


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## Gundini (6 June 2012)

Yes, this stock caught me without a stop @ .065 so is my biggest loss so far. Not happy with myself but I did try to catch a falling knife, I deserve the short term pain :-(


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## pavilion103 (21 June 2012)

This one has hit the lows on some very heavy volume and now consolidating on lower volume. 
I'll be interested to see if this one forms a base and volume starts to increase on a breakout.


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## pixel (28 August 2012)

Resources upgrade; nice 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01327052

That would explain the recent buying activity.


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## pixel (2 October 2012)

What a difference a few announcements and a subsequent investor presentation make 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01339012
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01338981
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01339237



Today's follow-through vindicates yesterday's early entry.


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## AllAussie (21 January 2013)

Silver up less than a percent, AYN up almost 15% in one day. No announcement. CCU finished down for the day.

Is something going on?


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## pixel (21 January 2013)

AllAussie said:


> Silver up less than a percent, AYN up almost 15% in one day. No announcement. CCU finished down for the day.
> 
> Is something going on?




It's not a one-day wonder, but has started several weeks ago.
I think today's is at least the second break, after the one on the 15th.
See my post from earlier today in the "Breakout" thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5351&p=750027&viewfull=1#post750027


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## AllAussie (22 January 2013)

Where is a good place to view the current silver price and price history in australia?

Im not sure what the silver price under the commodities tab in comsec actually represents? 

Its a fair bit different from the spot price in AUD given by the perth mint


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## sstyle (23 January 2013)

here u go, aussie silver

http://currencydex.com/currency-pair/AUDXAG?interval=86400


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## AllAussie (15 March 2013)

Anyone know whats happened to AYN this week? They had announced 5.5mil funding from the US recently and yet this week needed to raise another 2.5 locally???

Also 3 of the directors resigned?


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## pixel (18 March 2013)

AllAussie said:


> Anyone know whats happened to AYN this week? They had announced 5.5mil funding from the US recently and yet this week needed to raise another 2.5 locally???
> 
> Also 3 of the directors resigned?




Today's announcements should shed some more light on the issues:

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01392579
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01392575
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01392573

While I won't blame the (old) board for the weather, they could probably have kept a closer eye on those contractors and fleet maintenance. The loan from Bergen could well have been the final straw.
Hopefully, the new board can get us back on track. In fact, I'm so confident in their ability that I'm repurchasing my holdings that I had sold a few weeks ago. I've also bought a few AYNO, 6c by May 2015. Speculative yes, but if things go as expected, they'll offer heaps more bang per buck.


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## AllAussie (18 March 2013)

pixel said:


> Today's announcements should shed some more light on the issues:
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01392579
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01392575
> ...




Surely its has been oversold at 1.6c? Especially considering the problems are just temporary set backs rather than anything permanent?

I guess it all comes down to the ability to get LP4 fully constructed and functional so the mine can turn a profit ASAP.

Would be helpful if they gave us more figures in regards to monthly, per ounce processing costs and kept us more up to date on throughput rather than waiting for the quarterly reports.  The last time I heard cost per ounce mentioned was the BFS which stated taget costs of $15/oz.  Would be keen to know how they are tracking towards this target.

Also keen to see the exploration start again.  I'm hoping they buy their own drill rigs once they get some money...I have a feeling those tenements still have a bit to give

I own both AYN and AYNO and get the feeling I should be stocking up more atm


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## AllAussie (18 March 2013)

pixel said:


> Today's announcements should shed some more light on the issues:
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01392579
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01392575
> ...




Also what makes you so confident in the ability of the new board?  

Do you know much about any of them?


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## WRONG'UN (18 March 2013)

Looks like a potential Morning Star reversal pattern setting up - good luck knife catchers!


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