# CB (count back) Lines & Chart Patterns



## coyotte (4 October 2006)

*Moderator's Note: This thread had to be resurrected (after a mishap resulting from my ignorance) so please excuse some of the 'editorial' notes folks, my apologies! Thanks to Coyotte for such an excellent job, I'm sure we all very much appreciate the effort put into this thread. 
RichKid, moderator*



			
				Barney said:
			
		

> Hi Coyotte, I know you are an OXR "fan", Can you detail the way you "read" the chart for us uneducated....Cheers Barney.



OXR ENTRY

Chart is showing the use of COUNT BACK (Guppy/Wilson) 

Count Back is used as a confirmation of a break out into a new tread.
eg: is not used with price target trading.

From the HIGH of the LOW bar : count back (in that tread) untill U hit the bar with a higher high = CB2 : from this bar count back untill U hit the bar with a higher high than CB2 , this bar = CB3 .

The price must CLOSE above CB3 --- that close is the trigger for a entry the next day ---- the STOP is from the new high bar -- from the low of this bar count back to the next bar with a lower low = CB2 , then the next bar with a lower low = CB3 -- CLOSE below is the exit.

For a safer entery U can wait untill there is a second CLOSE above CB3 (original) for confirmation .

May : Failed 
June : Entry --the green line is the trigger ,the red line is the initial STOP.
July : Failed
Aug : Entry -- same as above
Sept: Entry -- As the trigger close was a manipualated price , I would ignore it and use the CB3 as the STOP

will follow up later with C/B & Indicater Divergence as a STOP in a Trend Trade:


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## coyotte (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*

OXR EXIT

Count Back STOPS are done the same way :
From the recent high bar count back untill U find a bar with lower low than the low of the high bar = CB2 -- from CB2 find the next bar with a lower low = CB3.

A close below CB3 triggers a exit.

Wilson explains how the use of the Average True Range indicater in conjuction with CB , can allow the STOP to be adjusted for the type of trade , Short to Long Term .

BUT I prefer in this the most VITAL part of the trade to use all predetermined STOPS only as a insurance measure -- basic analysis should see U safely out the of the position BEFORE the stop is triggered .

The graph of OXR shows some simple reliable techniques --- expessialy in stocks like OXR & LHG , these are volatil trading stocks .-- these are the type of stocks that short/med term traders thrive on :


First off notice the Bollinger Bands --- must be set at 20*2 simple .
When Price starts to break above the upper band , this is showing you that both speculators & short term traders are in this market , hence the trend at this pace is unsubstanable ---- early warning !!!

Second the ADX indicater -- set at 14d as the trend becomes steeper .
take particular note of the diverging D+ line (blue) -- this is showing that allthough the price is rising -- the actuall trend is weakening -- Specs & Traders are leaving .
The ADX line (grey ) -- this is showing the STRENGTH of the current trend .
The D- line (red ) --- this showing the down side strength.
The D+ Line (blue) ---- this is showing the up side stregth.


April / May clearly shows that price was breaching the BBs --- the D+ was diverging and D- was strengthening -- near the top the tails on candles where consistanly up & price was compressing .

Ample warning to exit long be the CB was hit. 


July -- D+ diverging & ADX at a low point , again pointing to caution.


Sept --- B/Bs are breached ,ADX diverging & at a low level , along with upward pointing tails on candles.

Current --- a half mast bear flag is forming , along with up tails !!!

These along with Twiggs Money Flow are the only indicaters I use and only when Specs/Traders are in the market.

Will post a entirely different stock MBL next .


disclosure : SHORT position Thurs --- 1/2 Long Hedge Fri (cover weekend)


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## coyotte (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*

MBL EXIT

Different type of stock --- blue chip, banking sector: 

MBL -- the same principles apply !

notice the up pointing candle tails April/May --- higher prices are being stronglly regected ---- buyers have dried up --- end of this trend.

Will post a current example of a STIRRUP pattern trade on Tues.


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## coyotte (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*

LHG STIRRUP

Stirrup Pattern of LHG current
After a stock has begun to rebound from a severe decline

Starts with the formation of a upward sloping triangle 
Trade can be entered early as price target trade -- the depth of the triangle is added to the top line of the triangle = EXIT 

If price continues past the target -- the new target becomes -- the Base of the triangle to the Top of the previous High x 2

Before this stage is reached the stock would probably have turned into Tread Trade and could be treated under those rules .

Disclosure: hold a long position, will add to if triangle target is exceeded.

Will show the same pattern with ROC tomorrow.


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## coyotte (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*

SBM

Example of a Bollinger Band Breach + Retrace Trade

SBM --- current


Note B/Bs MUST be set at 20 x 2 simple 

The breaching of the lower band is indicating that SBM is over sold , But is NOT a entry signal (remember HIH ) 

The entry signal was the blue bar above the band ( SEPT 19 ) and the C/B was the blue lines -- NO ENTRY 

The next signal was the blue bar ( Sept 22) and the C/B from the low is the green line -- there has been 3 closes above this line so it is confirmed 


The current STOP is the lower red line , from the current high .

The upper red line is showing the first major resistance level .
Note : SBM chart shows constance resistance on any UP move -- hence the point I was making in a prior thread , in Tread Trading look for stocks that have few if any previouse highs.


At this stage as U can see from this chart , indicaters are useless , the new trend has yet to develop -- currently its Price Action ----- When/ If the D+ line crosses the D- line and the ADX line tracks the D+ ( but remains below the D+) in a up direction , then U have confirmation that a UP trend is in place and the ADX is changed to 21d ---- Trend Trading Rules would then take over from Break Out Trading Rules.

THE SEPT 19 C/B ARE NOT ON THIS CHART --- but nut out where they should be

Disclosure : Will not have a position in SBM


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## coyotte (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*

SHORT TRADING :
Below is where the ASX approved 

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/short_sales.htm
go to the r/h side of the page -- midway down -- >download(TXT 15 kb)

The Risk/ Reward Ratio of Short trading is far too against the trader compared to the R/R Ratio of Long trading --- your potential Risk on a Short is unlimited whilst the potential Reward is restriced , worst of all if the stock was suspended or went into liquidation, etc --- your stuck with a Stock that you have contracted to BUY .

On the other hand a Long Trade your potential Risk is retricted to the inital purchace price , whilst the potential Reward is unlimited .

I mainly use shorts as a HEDGE ie: I have 1/3 of my INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO in ETF GOLD , when the price of Gold futures breaches in the UPPER TREND LINE of its trading CHANNEL , I take out a 1:3 Short on LHG , this saves me selling the physical , whilst the Short covers any losses ( break even ) , when the futures start to rebound , I buy back LHG , but at double the amount af shares that the short was , so if things go right you end up making a profit .


You can apply the same HEDGE principle to Shares :
If you had a Long postion in OSH and crude futures are topping out you could either take out a Short on OSH or a Long on say QAN .
If using the same share , I set the Long Price at the STOP , then as long as I can SHORT the stock above the STOP , I'm in break even situation untill , price verifys the next move.


I only do a NAKED SHORT TRADE on stocks like LHG, OXR etc because I have followed and traded LHG for over 5yrs , OXR for just over a year , I Know these stocks and trade them UP/DN .

To pick a stock that you are not familar with as a Short , would far to risky a proposition for the vast majorty of small traders ---- get to know the stock first.
Be careful of high Volume on a short , it is often the final sell off ----- same when approaching a major support level , generally a good time to bail out.

Cheers


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## coyotte (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*

LHG STOP

Based on Rising Triangle
Stirrup is the same STOP

Lihir closed over 6% down in NY overnight 
Same here would put LHG at 2.70 
Looks like this will be a dead trade

---- LHG ---  possible EXIT today


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## RichKid (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> OXR EXIT
> 
> Count Back STOPS are done the same way :
> From the recent high bar count back untill U find a bar with lower low than the low of the high bar = CB2 -- from CB2 find the next bar with a lower low = CB3.
> ...



*Moderator's Note- This post is by Barney:* Hi C, Some good insight in these posts. Very informative for those trying to learn more about this stuff .......Keep 'em coming, Barney.

PS Re the specs/traders mentioned above; Just to make sure I have this basically right Do you mean you ONLY trade when the specs/traders are involved? ie either they are just re-entering the market - Entry points using C/B + positive move on sp? AND look to exit soon after the upward momentum diminishes ie C/B with negative sp move and/or after an unsustainable uptrend as described with bollinger curves etc OR will you still "consider" a trade without any obvious volatility, but maybe based on other signals??


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## RichKid (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> *Moderator's Note- This post is by Barney:* Hi C, Some good insight in these posts. Very informative for those trying to learn more about this stuff .......Keep 'em coming, Barney.
> 
> PS Re the specs/traders mentioned above; Just to make sure I have this basically right Do you mean you ONLY trade when the specs/traders are involved? ie either they are just re-entering the market - Entry points using C/B + positive move on sp? AND look to exit soon after the upward momentum diminishes ie C/B with negative sp move and/or after an unsustainable uptrend as described with bollinger curves etc OR will you still "consider" a trade without any obvious volatility, but maybe based on other signals??




*Moderator's Note- This post is by Coyotte*:

Barney :

Most of my trades now are initiated by either a " rising triangle " or a " bull flag " for a long position --- the reverse of these two patterns for a short position.

C/B is not applicable to these types of trades , they are usually entered around the 2/3 point of the pattern development . ---- this is short term price target trading --- C/B is used for confirmation when some other method of entry is signaled eg: Trend Line Retrace -- Bollinger Bands breach + retrace --- MA cross over ,etc, etc .
Those where the type of trades I moved on to AFTER coming to terms with TREND TRADING .

Will post a graph of SBM -- a " Bollinger Band Breach + Retrace " which has been confirmed by C/B .


When Bollinger Bands are being breached it is warning that a move in the opposing direction is on the cards (minor or major ) ---this can either be taken as a warning to start taking particular notice of the price action --- eg: Breach of the short term trend line , tighten the ADX from 21d to 14d , UP pointing tails on candles , mostly RED candles , daily price contracting --- I use these as a group for a Exit ---- the C/B exit is the LAST RESORT -- if that is hit, I have lost touch with this stock .

OR the Breaches can be used as the starting of a Trade Set Up in the opposing direction ---- The SBM graph will show this 

As to opening a position when the B/Bs are being breached --- generally NO! 
The Specs are Flighty Money and the Traders would eat me for breaky !
Much prefer to see the price action Tracking the Upper Band , without any breaches .


Cheers


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## RichKid (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*



			
				Coyotte said:
			
		

> Barney :
> 
> Most of my trades now are initiated by either a " rising triangle " or a " bull flag " for a long position --- the reverse of these two patterns for a short position.
> 
> ...




*Moderator's Note- This post is by Barney:* 
Thanks for the info C, The good thing is that I understood most of it!!  

So basically you are looking for an average/medium amount of price action/volatility/trend etc. to signal entry/exits, but not to the point where the volatility creates unnecessary risk? As you say, after the "traders" have worked the stock over, it often seems to signal a potential downturn (even if only short term). I've noticed re the B/Bands; often they will gap open accompanied by a strong price/volume spike (traders?) and in a short space of time reverse well down under the M/A, and head for the bottom B/Band.......are there any stocks which are more prone to this type action?........I guess that Oil and Gold stocks are more influenced by the commodity price than other factors?? For eg. Oil is down o/night so stocks such as ROC and OSH will more than likely drop a little on their daily trend??

Cheers Barney.


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## RichKid (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> SHORT TRADING :
> Below is where the ASX approved
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/short_sales.htm
> ...



*Moderator's Note- This post is by Barney:*
Thanks for the above advice C, Very helpful stuff............Cheers, Barney


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## coyotte (4 October 2006)

Saved by the bell
don't know if was a good thing or not --- but still in


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## barney (4 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> LHG STIRRUP
> 
> Stirrup Pattern of LHG current
> After a stock has begun to rebound from a severe decline
> ...





Hey there Coyotte, Good to see the thread back in action,  (Well done Rich for your efforts to get it back on track)  

Excuse my lack of knowledge, but can you explain what calculations are used to plot the "rising stop".... I can see the "angle" of the triangle etc.    Is the rising stop simply X% below the proposed target trigger line, or is there some other way it is calculated.............Also due to the fact that Gold was down substantially before open of trade today, do you recalculate your stop level at all, or simply say bad luck and exit if it is hit??  Cheers, Barney.


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## coyotte (5 October 2006)

Barney :

The STOP for  a  Rising Triangle is ussually calculated by measuring the  "Base to the Top  Line of the Tri " this gives the Target Price .

In LHG's case 2.61 to 2.81 = .20 = Target Price 2.81 + .20 = 3.01.

From any point along the Bottom Trend Line of the Triangle project down that .20 and place a parallel trend line -- that line is the STOP --- UNTILL the Target Price is reached -- in this case being a Stirrup Trade , if it pans out , and the target is exceeded then a riseing C/B STOP would take over.

Was about to to close the position today , as it became obviouse that the close would be around 2.78 (today's stop ) getting  to risky; When I recieved a E-Mail Alert from Steve Saville , a Gold Analyst I hold in great respect -- that basically the down side risk to POG was far less than the up side potential , for the MOMENT --- so I'm still in there 


Will be posting a interesting situation concerning OXR and patterns (current )-- had some  feed back from HotCopper & IC forums on this . --- never seen this situation before in a stock .


Cheers


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## tech/a (5 October 2006)

Coyotte.

Most interested in analysis performed realtime like the LHG trade.

Fitting analysis into past price action is easy showing its performance in realtime is more difficult.
I would be suprised if you do better than 50/50 short or long.

You pick some interesting stocks to trade.

Still a lot of work done here.


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## coyotte (5 October 2006)

Yeap tech/a 

I can't Bullsh*t here , this is the real thing !
Actually betweem Barney and myself

You may have noticed yesterday in another thread: in reply to a question you put ,that  around 1min before the close I was ready to Close the position for a 4% loss --- but held in there -- your quite right , LHG has not turned out the way I expected , these trades generally have a 70-80 % S/R -- looks like this could be in the 20/30 % lossing Group -- but with TIGHT stops, as long as there is not a gap down  -- it is inmaterial 

What did I say Barney -- it certainly did not take to long did it ?

Cheers


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## barney (5 October 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Barney :
> 
> The STOP for  a  Rising Triangle is ussually calculated by measuring the  "Base to the Top  Line of the Tri " this gives the Target Price .
> 
> ...





Hi C, I'll need a bit longer on this to follow it properly, but the gist is there.

Re LHG (bare in mind I am V new to T/A so go easy on me   ).............Just had a look at the last 6 months chart, Notice the sp has another resistance area of around mid $2.60's.........assuming that LHG is very dependent on gold price, would you consider "easing" your stop loss to say low $2.60's to give a little more flexibility ........the current pattern from mid September to present seems very similar to the pattern of mid July to mid August, where the sp drifted a little lower but recovered strongly by 5-8th September........

I know this is not "tecnical" analysis, but it would only take an average rise in gold to spark LHG up............Funnily enough, when I started writing this, Gold had opened up about $6 higher, and now is up about $11 ............this should obviously help in the short term.........Also , considering gold took a beating yesterday, and LHG held its own on good volume, that would give some hope I guess??.........The next couple of days will tell a better story I spose?.......

Just talking out a loud here, but if I make any sense let me know, and feel free to criticize incorrect judgements/asumptions, Cheers Barney.


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## coyotte (6 October 2006)

Barney :

NO !

If STOP is breached you should have loss of only  5% max --- unless there is a gap down --- KEEP YOUR STOPS TIGHT --- you can allways re-enter . 

If LHG recovered and closed above 2.81 then buy back in .

THREAD CLOSED


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## tech/a (6 October 2006)

> these trades generally have a 70-80 % S/R -- looks like this could be in the 20/30 % lossing Group




I would seriously question those figures. Where did you get them?

I'm not new to Tech Analysis (12 yrs) --- and when I see figures like this quoted to genuine newbie traders of course Ill query it.
Triangles at best are a 50/50 proposition.
Just have a look in "The encyclopedia of chart patterns".
The LHG trade I would question the formation of the traded triangle,to me its more a consolidation area---but as Technical analysis *can * be subjective----secondly you were trading against the immediate trend which would lower the chances of success.



> THREAD CLOSED




WHY?

If your going to post analysis in demonstration you must be prepared to answer queries from both novice and experienced together.
*Hell* try running a fully disclosed trading system live on the nett for 4 years showing live trades for 4 yrs,the good the bad and the ugly,and see what sort of questions you need to answer.(Which I do).

There is nothing wrong with what you have posted.
I wouldnt trade it and I dont particularly like Guppy's CBL (In short term trading) due to the wide gap in most entries from entry to stop.I do like the use of pure price action.
I like the way you trade one stock (Or a few) as a strategy,you can develope some very good insights trading a few stocks.
I dont like ADX particularly your use as a confirmation in a trading range for the CBL entries in OXR. But thats me.

Ive done this long enough and tested zillions of trading Hypothesis (400 out of 1200 published Metastock trading systems once---how many do you think turned a profit?---ZERO didnt find one---but thats another story).and ideas to know that Technical analysis *AT BEST* supplies a "Possible" beginning and a "possible" end point.

Its use is very often incorrectly applied.(As a common example looking for over bought oscillator signals in a bull trend and V versa).

Its use is very often applied with no knowledge of success ratios,or and most importantly expectancy.Its simply blind application.

Coyotte Hotcopper full of could be's starting on their journey.

Keep posting your ideas,but dont get annoyed if and when I ask something---constructive.


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## professor_frink (6 October 2006)

Hi Coyotte,

Interesting thread you've started here. Would you be able to give me a quick run down on how you'd use the C/B line to trade BHP over the last few months? I was looking at it this morning and am struggling to figure out how you'd be able make any profit using the C/B line(although I may have been calculating it incorrectly  )

Cheers


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## lesm (6 October 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> THREAD CLOSED



Why close the thread?


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## lesm (6 October 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I dont like ADX particularly your use as a confirmation in a trading range for the CBL entries in OXR. But thats me.



Barney,

If you are interested in following up on tech/a's comment above, there are a couple of articles on Chuck Le Beau's site at the URL below: http://traderclub.com/discus/board.html
that you may find interesting.

Select the 'Bulletins' link in the left hand frame to see the list of articles.

When using any indicator, including the ADX, it is always important to understand the pros and cons of using them.

Another aspect to consider is related to correlated and uncorrelated indicators.

Besdies the encyclopedia that tech/a mentioned, you can refer  to the A-Z of Technical analysis that can be found online. I think there is a copy on the Equis site or you can use a reference, such as the one by Edwards and Magee.

Cheers


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## Magdoran (7 October 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Barney :
> 
> NO !
> 
> ...



Hello coyotte,


I was really pleased to see you posting up examples of your style.  It is always interesting to see a fellow trader displaying their craft.

I know it can be frustrating when people scrutinise what you have become comfortable using, and have taken a pride in.  It would be a shame for you to stop at this point since you just started to illustrate a picture for us.

I for one appreciate the effort you were going to, and I imagine I was not the only one.

Please do continue, and perhaps the questions (which are actually a positive sign - in that people are taking notice of what you are doing, even if this is critical) can be framed more respectfully.


Regards


Magdoran


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## coyotte (8 October 2006)

Magdoran:

             This Thread was iniated by a question I recieved via PM , as part of the response I offered against my better judgement, to follow a TRADE  I was in ( LHG ) with the inquirer.
  ( I have done this before and then as now found it to be extremly distracting to the trade --- leads to hesitation ).

I told the inquirer that I did not want the THREAD to end up like most of the threads on this site , off the original subject and just a slinging match . ---- That at the first sign of this I would bow out .

The THREAD  is about SIMPLE  trading methods with a bit of basic advice ( hence  the post SHORTS ). 

The THREAD is restricted to YOUR OWN PERSONAL and PRACTICAL EXPERINCE
 What you have read but NOT applied --- Personal opinons with no Practical back-up---- Back Testing (horse racing systems)   ---- DO NOT BELONG HERE 

Practical contsructive critisim is more than welcome --- just be mindful of others who may be in a TRADE  , that your comments do not distract them from what they are doing.

Exactly the type of thing I wanted to advoid is this reply to tech/a  statements.

Early in the thread I stated that only 2 patterns iniate a trade , they are a RISING TRIANGLE or a BULL FLAG for a LONG, opposite for a SHORT ---- hence 70/80% S/R 
( Practical not what I've read or Quoted from others )

The Count Back Line is used only as a confirmatin tool for Breakout Trading .-- It does not belong to Pattern Trading 
There must be another unrelated signal EG: Trend line rebound, Bollinger Band rebound etc --- this was also stated earlier.

The C/B as a STOP (in a Trend Trade ) is only used as a last resort (insurance) -- by the time it is  hit U should have been out of the Trade ---- also stated earlier.

The ADX --- at no time did I state the ADX was a entry signal --- what I said was that with a Topping Treading stock -- to shorten the 21d to 14d  -- watch for D+,D- and ADX  divergence along with Candles , Bollinger Bands etc , taken as a group they are INDICATING a warning ---- also stated earlier.

After a stock has maintaned its rise as a Breakout or Pattern , if a new UP trend is on the way the ADX will confirm this and can be used as a trend tracking tool , there are probably others , if you have USED them over a period of time  and not mearly read about or back tested  them, then  bring them into the discussion  .

This Thread is intended for posters who are ACTUALLY TRADING
Their Practical experinces and Practical advice ONLY 


Cheers


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## tech/a (8 October 2006)

> This Thread is intended for posters who are ACTUALLY TRADING
> Their Practical experinces and Practical advice ONLY




My apologies I was un aware you set the guidelines for this thread!

What makes you think we are not trading?
What makes you think the advise given has/is not practical.

Frankly what I see is analysis paralysis,a common fault of early users of tech analysis.



> Exactly the type of thing I wanted to advoid is this reply to tech/a statements




You expected that all your statements would be accepted? Strange.


*To some practical discussion.*



> Early in the thread I stated that only 2 patterns iniate a trade , they are a RISING TRIANGLE or a BULL FLAG for a LONG, opposite for a SHORT ---- hence 70/80% S/R




Regardless of governing trend?
This is extremely misleading I certainly challenge the 70-80% strike rate.
When do you initiate trades before a break or after the first break bar?
When has it failed in your veiw?



> The Count Back Line is used only as a confirmatin tool for Breakout Trading .-- It does not belong to Pattern Trading
> There must be another unrelated signal EG: Trend line rebound, Bollinger Band rebound etc --- this was also stated earlier.




A breakout doesnt need confirmation ---it can be seen!!! Support from increased volume is handy.



> The C/B as a STOP (in a Trend Trade ) is only used as a last resort (insurance) -- by the time it is hit U should have been out of the Trade ---- also stated earlier.




Purely dependant on time frame.CBL used as an entry and exit will have you whipsawing your trades.Used as an exit It is far too premature.
However as a trailing stop in *some * instances could lock in profits.




> The ADX --- at no time did I state the ADX was a entry signal --- what I said was that with a Topping Treading stock -- to shorten the 21d to 14d -- watch for D+,D- and ADX divergence along with Candles , Bollinger Bands etc , taken as a group they are INDICATING a warning ---- also stated earlier.




Honestly this is just Technical paralysis---I'm no novice after 12 yrs you can spot it a mile off---totally un necessary to trade.



> if you have USED them over a period of time and not mearly read about or back tested them, then bring them into the discussion .




Ive investigated most technical trading methodlogies over the years and rejected most.Ive tested more technical indicators and setup than you probably know of. You should learn how to test them as it can and will save you lots of money,heart ache and hrs of un necessary delusion.(as you can trade ideas over years of data in seconds).Do enough of that long enough and you'll have a pretty good idea of whats useful and whats not!

Yes I trade.I can direct you to the live trading of one methodlogy over the last 4 yrs and still traded live if you'd like.


*coyotte.*
You sadly under estimate the experience here of some of the posters.
Personally I have used and discarded much of that which you write years ago.
So to will you,when you discover what you need to do to trade consistently----analysing your brains out either Technically Fundamentally or BOTH ----isnt in itself the path to consistant profit.

I have no problems with your posts or examples but dont treat us as collectively (or individually) technically ignorant!

tech


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## lesm (8 October 2006)

Dear Coyote,

I think it is good that you have taken the time to demonstrate your approach to Barney.

Having said, that I feel sorry for you in the level of naivety that appears to come across in your latest post and your insinuation about posters not being ACTIVE traders.

So far from the truth that it is not funny.

If you find it distrcating to post live anlaysis and trades either don't do it or work on your trading psychology. If you have the confidence you claim/imply  (to have) in you rmethod then nothing in the posts below should really affect your trading.

Your view on backtesting appears to be limited and again naive. Why not ask a relevant question rather than equate it to a horse racing system.

A very recent article published in the USA comments on the number of automated systems coming online in the markets and that in the forseeable future the market place is going to become a battle of computers. These systems will be backtested to the 'nth degree and some of them will have AI built in.

Why would they want to trade blindly in the market on whim and a prayer. 

You sadly underestimate the level of knowledge and experience of a range of posters on this forum.

But, in not wanting to create a slanging match your comments appear to be prepared so start one, especially if anyone wants to raise any questions related to your approach.

We can all learn from questioning and even challenging each others approaches, as it can asssit in progressing our knowledge. That's the way of the progressive world, as we are in reality individuals and not sheep.

Enjoy your trading. Trying taking a deep breath and counitng to 10 every now and then.

Cheers.


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## wavepicker (8 October 2006)

*Re: Coyotte*

Hi Coyotte,
Firstly I would like to thank you for at least being brave enough to post some charts, and a description of how you perhaps go about some of your trades. Wish more posters would do the same on this forum.




> First off notice the Bollinger Bands --- must be set at 20*2 simple .
> When Price starts to break above the upper band , this is showing you that both speculators & short term traders are in this market , hence the trend at this pace is unsubstanable ---- early warning !!!




I was however under the impression you do not use moving averages of any type in your comments of post #73 in the "Re: Improving Chart Analysis Thread"  Refer to the comments from that post below:



> Where do you get the idea that I use MAs & Indicators from ?
> I am basically a short term "pattern trader " with Wormald's TT Grid as a verification tool





Not trying to criticize here, rather just talking from my own experience using Bollinger Bands years ago. I found them to be of very little use in my trading
If you look at what Bollingers are and what you are trying to acheive with them, it's a complete waste of time as they are lagging indicators and will give you very little "earling warning" of anything.

What is a moving average?? It is simple cutoff filter. Depending on the span chosen the resulting trace or line is a representation of the sum of all the cycles greater than the span chosen. There is only one problem here, the relationship between the moving average and the data it smoothes is NOT the one that is shown on stock price charts. In fact, the moving average data point plotted in association with the last price datum should be associated with a price datum half the time span of the average in the past!!!! A moving average becomes a great deal more useful if plotted correctly. To do so, the theoretical time lag of such an average must be taken into account.

How do you do this?  Move the moving average back in time half the span you have chosen. In doing so you will see that MA is now in sync with the price action!! The remaining price action between the end of the MA and the last data point is you time delay or lag in the filter. There should be enough info in terms price data for you to extend the MA to end of the price action, or you can simply use various curve fitting techniques to help you do this.

By doing this, you can now virtually toss away all the other lagging indicators you are using like adx etc. From you modified Bollinger chart, you are now able to improve the timing of your pivots, as now price is oscillating from one band (upper)  to another (lower) You now have just one tool that may aid you to trade forward timeframes. One caveat though, you need to be able to choose the correct span (dominant cycle) of your price action.

Price itself is the best indicator

Cheers


----------



## coyotte (8 October 2006)

Money Management with a Rising Triangle :

      Ideally the Triangle should form over over 7 to 10 trading days .
Around the later 2/3 thirds of the development is generally the ideal Entry.

With LHG the Tri was confirmed on Mon 25 th Sept allowing a entry on Tues 26th --- Ave price ( the green line) say 2.77.

From Entry 2.77 to Target 3.01 (real 2.99 ) we have potential profit of .22c , with the Rising Stop @ 2.56 a potentia loss of .21c 

So our Potential Profit/Loss is odds of 1/1 ,  a even money bet .

As the STOP risers our loss is diminishing whilst our profit is static.
As from Fri --- barring a sudden price move,  we are in a NIL risk position.


As for the Stirrup Trade as the Thurs 28 Sept Open was the Entry  we are now almost at the NIL risk area 2.86


Tend to think a lot of new raders do not uderstand what the STOP is reresenting

The STOP is the size and odds of the BET.

In  the LHG  example at the initial entry:

Target = Winning = .20c
Loss = Bet          = .20c
Odds                 =  1/1

As you can see from the above that by lowering the STOP , you are only increasing the BET & Odds but not the Winnings --- your betting against yourself.

Same principle applies with Tread Trading , as you place your STOP beaware of the potential Profit -- is the Bet size/Odds to large in relation to the potential Prize ?


----------



## tech/a (8 October 2006)

Was going to reply but wont bother.
Nice to see an expert novice at work.


----------



## barney (8 October 2006)

Hi there guys,   I feel a bit responsible for the degeneration of the "vibe" on this thread,even though I know it is not my doing..............Can I say firstly, that I have been given excellent advice from many around here and you all know who you are so thanks for that!  I appreciate all advice, whether i do or dont understand it.   

Now whether others disagree with Coyottees methods/ use of analysis or whatever is really arbitrary IMO, cause personally, I've found 90% of what C has explained/ told me has been excellent advice/very helpful..........(The other 10% will also be helpful when I learn more) (and I dont just mean this thread....many threads).........

Coyotte trades his system, and it works for him.....that being the case, I repsect that, as I do Tech Mag Les and too many others to mention, but IMO it was not Coyottees intention to get into a debate on who's system is the best.............If your system works for you, then it is the best sytem for you to use (not my words....simply paraphrasing what I've learnt around HERE!)

The time required to "describe" how you trade is consuming, so I appreciate Coyottees (and others) taking that time to "educate" myself and others on the Forum............ But perhaps rather than finding "fault" with others' systems/methods, it would be more productive to say .........well thats an interesting approach........now heres an approach "I" use that you might also find useful/interesting etc.................. 

It is human nature, unfortunately, to "judge" others, but I've got to say, that  I find the less you judge others, the more you can learn from/about them, and hopefully appreciate their views/opinions.........and I'm talking in general, not just share trading................ 

Anyway enough ranting for a Sunday morning............you should all be at church getting your "sins" forgiven     Cheers to all, Barney.


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## bunyip (8 October 2006)

Coyotte

Regarding those countback entries on OXR.....I notice that OXR was staggering around like a drunken sailor in a cyclone at the time, no clearly defined trend, basically drifting around in no mans land, going more or less sideways.
Such stocks whipsaw you to pieces....they're difficult to trade profitably no matter whether your entries are based on CB lines or anything else.

I think you'll find that trading is much easier and more profitable if you trade only stocks that are in clear uptrends, (or clear downtrends for short trades).

Regarding the 'upsloping triangle' on LHG.....I presume you mean 'ascending triangle'. There are a couple of things wrong with the ascending triangle you marked on the LHG chart. The first is that it's not an ascending triangle at all. No disrespect, but you need to learn how to correctly identify chart patterns. Suggest you try www.chartpatterns.com
The second thing wrong with the pattern you've outlined is that it occurred while the trend was sideways to down. By going long from this pattern you're trading against the trend.....no wonder the trade is staggering around and showing reluctance to head north.

Triangles can be reliable patterns, but only when they're traded in the direction of a clearly established trend. An ascending triangle should be preceded by a decent uptrend. A descending triangle should be preceded by a decent downtrend.
Symmetrical triangles can be traded long during uptrends, and short during downtrends.

Coyotte, I give you credit for your willingness to help a new trader like Barney. However, some of your information is unintentionally misleading.

 Bunyip


----------



## bunyip (8 October 2006)

Coyotte

Here's an example of what a true ascending triangle should look like, and how it should be traded.
Sorry I can't post a chart - I haven't bothered to learn how to - maybe you can instruct me.

The stock is ADB

ADB made a high of $9.72 on 4/11/04......this was the point 1 of the ascending triangle.
Next it pulled back and made a low of $9.37 on 15/11/04...this was point 2 of the triangle.
Then it went up to a high of $9.74 on 18/11/04...this was point 3 of the triangle. Now we have two equal highs (near enough), i.e. points 1 & 3,  on which to draw the upper horizontal boundary or the triangle.
Then a pullback to the low of $9.50 on 23/11/04....point 4 of the triangle. Now we have two lows, points 2 & 4, on which to draw the upward sloping lower boundary of the triangle.
Extend the upper and lower boundaries of the triangle to the right until they join. It's also a good idea to mark in points 1, 2, 3 & 4.
24/11/04 was the breakout day with high of $9.80

Go long on the 25th at $9.81(one tick above the breakout day) with a stop just below the bottom boundary of the triangle, directly below the breakout day. In this case the stop would be at about $9.49, which is a risk of 3.3%

A couple of points worth noting...
1. An uptrend preceded the triangle.....this is VERY important. Triangles are continuation patterns....if a solid uptrend precedes the formation of the triangle, the stock is more likely to continue a solid uptrend once it breaks out above the triangle.

2. The two tops that formed the upper boundary of the triangle were not exactly equal, but they were only 2 cents apart - that's close enough for our purposes.

3. The breakout day was not accompanied by increased volume. Strictly speaking, it should have been. However, my experience is that increasing volume sometimes doesn't kick in until a few days after the breakout - it seems that traders sometimes take a few days to realise the stock is on the move, then they start piling into it, causing increasing trading volume.
So while increased volume on the breakout day is preferable, I don't believe the pattern should be ignored if it doesn't exactly follow the rules in this regard.

Cheers
Bunyip


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## Magdoran (8 October 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> Hi there guys,   I feel a bit responsible for the degeneration of the "vibe" on this thread,even though I know it is not my doing..............Can I say firstly, that I have been given excellent advice from many around here and you all know who you are so thanks for that!  I appreciate all advice, whether i do or dont understand it.
> 
> Now whether others disagree with Coyottees methods/ use of analysis or whatever is really arbitrary IMO, cause personally, I've found 90% of what C has explained/ told me has been excellent advice/very helpful..........(The other 10% will also be helpful when I learn more) (and I dont just mean this thread....many threads).........
> 
> ...



I agree with barney: I’d like to suggest that when we all raise points and observations (particularly by the more senior traders – both in terms of age and experience), that we do so in an accepting, respectful, and inclusive fashion.

We need to remember that forums like this work best when people feel welcome to comment, and are encouraged to post.  I think it’s great that we have such a strong pool of talent to draw from, and there is something appealing about the diversity of styles, wouldn’t you agree? 

If we aggressively tear into genuine posts, this may stifle the rich flow of sharing ideas.   The danger is, if there’s too much negative criticism and people feel they are “under the microscope”, this will act as a disincentive for people to post up their ideas.  This applies to intermediate, beginner, and even advanced traders.

Let’s embrace the members who post genuine examples for the benefit of illustrating their style.  Just think about it this way.  It’s about the tone, not the content.  How would you like to be treated if you posted your work up?  Sure we are all going to have our perspective, but just think about the possible avenues of discussion that can be inspired from one poster having the courage to post as coyotte has done here.

What I’d like to see are constructive responses such as the way bunyip and wavepicker assertively raised their points.  This is an excellent example of how to respectfully address a post, and yet outline valuable observations.  Let’s encourage people to post, no matter how basic or complex, and try to foster an inclusive ethos.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. Hey, I’m including myself here too… we all need to keep raising the “diplomatic” bar higher! - not too high though! Hahahaha  - got to have some fun too! Mag.


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## bunyip (8 October 2006)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> I agree with barney: I’d like to suggest that when we all raise points and observations (particularly by the more senior traders – both in terms of age and experience), that we do so in an accepting, respectful, and inclusive fashion.
> 
> We need to remember that forums like this work best when people feel welcome to comment, and are encouraged to post.  I think it’s great that we have such a strong pool of talent to draw from, and there is something appealing about the diversity of styles, wouldn’t you agree?
> 
> ...




Completely agree.
Some people resort to rudeness and sarcasm to make their point when they disagree with someone. 
It's completely unnecessary. A person of character can get his or her point across without being rude and inconsiderate.

Bunyip


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## tech/a (8 October 2006)

*What and destroy my obnoxious #1 rating!!*
Technical peanut outstanding achiever award--from Lord Duc.
Enemy#1 from the darkside---the Gann Clan.

Duck turns pussy!!

Its like taking Macenro out of tennis.

Cummmoooonn!!! Present your stuff! 

If your going to offer information for public scrutiny then expect to be scrutinised.

*I'm fair I'll give credit where its due.*


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## Bronte (8 October 2006)

bunyip said:
			
		

> Completely agree.
> Some people resort to rudeness and sarcasm to make their point when they disagree with someone.
> It's completely unnecessary. A person of character can get his or her point across without being rude and inconsiderate.
> Bunyip



Great posts Magdoran / bunyip :iagree:


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## stevo (8 October 2006)

Coyote,
It is nice to know what sort of stats a system produces in actual trading over a long period of time. Testing of things like count back lines and ADX in the past has led them to be rejected by me as a strategy, although CBL's are difficult to code for testing purposes. Testing is also no guarantee that an indicator does or doesn't work - there are so many variables. 

Is it possible to put the rules that you use into clear step by step guidelines? For example indicate;

1. The timeframe that you use, 
2. the universe of stocks selected, 
3. the position sizing strategy, 
4. when you would enter a trade
5. and when you would exit a trade.

This would be  useful for coding purposes and give a better understanding of the strategy being outlined above. You also mention some statistics (70% plus S/R) - are there other stats available for the methods outlined. My apologies if I missed this info above.

I am a great devotee of backtesting trading strategies - it is difficult to find good systems that are tradeable.

regards
Stevo

drawdown.blogspot.com


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## RichKid (8 October 2006)

bunyip said:
			
		

> Coyotte
> 
> Here's an example of what a true ascending triangle should look like, and how it should be traded.
> Sorry I can't post a chart - I haven't bothered to learn how to - maybe you can instruct me.
> ...




Hi Bunyip, here's a guide to posting an attachment, it's very easy once you've done it once or twice, happy to help if you need it, just post in the thread linked or pm me or any of the other mods:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401&highlight=attachment

As a moderator and a member I would like to thank all the members who have engaged constructively and empathetically in this thread with a view to furthering the discussion. 

It is a sure sign of ASF's maturity to have its members take responsibility for the level of decorum show in online debates. We only need a few strong voices (out of the thousands who join ASF) showing public leadership and compassion to make a big difference on ASF.

Coyotte, your motivation for starting this thread is beyond reproach, it is my sincere wish that your efforts in trying to improve the lot of someone who came to you for help will be repaid to you by others here who will try to help you develop in your trading. I am glad that you have continued to post publicly in this thread despite the strain such scrutiny may place upon you initially.

Finally, let us remember that there is a significant difference between criticism and critique, let us see more of the latter and let it be done in good spirit and with abundant compassion and tolerance.


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## coyotte (9 October 2006)

IMHO the most important post in this thread , actually vital , is post No.28.

As I was saying to Barney that this thread was leading to the Bottom Line -- and that  is that the most important thing  / the only thing , that brings around long term profits is your approach to STOPS.

After all T/A , F/A , Gann , Elliot or any combination isn't rocket science , these are mearly tools that we use initially, after a while these drop to the wayside and U can just look at a chart with its Trend Lines, and interpret it , all the other stuff is just making it a bit more comfortable.


Any trading stock , as far as the trader is concernered can only move in one of two directions , if its consolidating sideways , then at the moment it's not tradeable --- so if you mearly tossed a coin you have 50% chance of being right , all any analyst can do is throw the odds your way , because U already have a two horse race.


I admit that under classic pattern rules LHG has not formed a perfect triangle (probably more a pitchfork) but what the heck -- to me it's close enough to an ascending triangle which should throw the edge my way , if I was only to trade stocks that fitted the classic descriptions down to a T , I'd be waiting forever, another excuse to procrastinate.

Far more important is the EXIT and about the only time I use any indicators  in a Trend Trade.

From the LHG example ( as with any triangle) the Inital STOP is the Target Reversed , hence (baring a sudden price move) the Loss or Bet is 50/50.

The Actual position size I initially took with LHG was 870 shares * $2.76 = $2400 , The relastic Target is $2.99 =$2600 = profit $200.
The inital rising STOP at $2.56 = $2227 =  loss/bet $173
It is the $173 that is at risk not the $2400 -- Profit on turnover is calcualated on the $173 --- the $2400 is mearly the position size.

So initally as long as STOPS are applied I'm making a $173 bet for a $200 profit --- If the STOP is lowered , then the BET size must increase BUT the PROFIT still stays static at $200.

What this is leading to is ODDS and overlay betting :
If I have a selection method that generates a 50% Strike Rate , which picking any old  stock at random is going to produce long term , and I can consistently BET  $173 for a $200 profit in the long run I must come out ahead -- but if I'm betting $300 for a $200 profit in the long run I must lose --- this is one of the golden rules of punting.

Try Bollinger Bands at 20*2 on a 5 min chart ,  -- you'll see exacatly what I'm talking about with breaks outside the bands --- I use this method consistently during the day with trading stocks : in and out / in and out 


Cheers


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (9 October 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> IMHO the most important post in this thread , actually vital , is post No.28.
> 
> I admit that under classic pattern rules LHG has not formed a perfect triangle (probably more a pitchfork) but what the heck -- to me it's close enough to an ascending triangle which should throw the edge my way , if I was only to trade stocks that fitted the classic descriptions down to a T , I'd be waiting forever, another excuse to procrastinate.






			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> At the time you traded LHG Coyotte, I considered LHG as a profit target trade also, it charted well for a bit of a break. Considering the price of gold during the period and the SP of most of the other gold stocks, its done alright during the last few weeks.
> Held pretty strong really and managed a bit of an increase. I think the gold price has been the major factor in this one not realising too much of a profit for a trade.
> 
> Anyway I've enjoyed your posting on this thread, and its been interesting to follow youre trading methedology.
> ...


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## coyotte (9 October 2006)

stevo said:
			
		

> Coyote,
> It is nice to know what sort of stats a system produces in actual trading over a long period of time. Testing of things like count back lines and ADX in the past has led them to be rejected by me as a strategy, although CBL's are difficult to code for testing purposes. Testing is also no guarantee that an indicator does or doesn't work - there are so many variables.
> 
> Is it possible to put the rules that you use into clear step by step guidelines? For example indicate;
> ...






The only time I use the D+, D- ,ADX  is when trading a Trending Stock which appears to be making a top --- as the stock makes higher HIGHS or is maintaing it's high , if the ADX lines are making a divergence , then this is generally a clear message that the tread is breaking down , (ADX set at 14days ) take this along with UP tails on candles , red candles , compressing price and the stock is sending a clear message ---- You should be out before the C/B stop is hit --- look at the OXR chart as it made its high .

I also find the ADX usefull for confirming if a stock as it rises above a target is going into trend ( 14d ) as the trend develops (ADX 21 ) ---  the ADX is a trend tracking tool not a breakout tool .

C/B is only used as a confirmation tool (or STOP ) for Breakout or Rebound Trading -- it is not used on its own as a selection method  --- again check the OXR chart , you'll see if  C/B did not confirm the move , then it was a dead cat bounce .

The best trading tool I've come across though is the Wormald Grid but this is defintly not a tool for new traders , first you must thoughly understand how to draw accurate Trend Lines and why they are placed where they are .


Apart from intra-day trading , the bulk of my trades are now iniated by either rising triangles or flags , these can and often do turn into Trend Trade --- If it appears that is the case I pick the trade up again.



Both Triangles and Flages can be entered at around the 2/3 development point , if you leave it untill they break the top line you are losing to much percentage -- in the case of LHG theres only around  7% to the target.


Most of these trades are opened and closed in little over  a week -- the day of the breakout above the top line is often followed by two UP days , hiting the target then a pull back , before an advance (if any )

Cheers


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## coyotte (9 October 2006)

Wavepicker : Re Post 27

These charts are mearly examples :

The Origninal  query was in reference to the abreviation I commonly use for Count Back , -- the early charts are showing what it is, how it is calculated and it's uses --- and no I don,t or rarely use these tools anymore except in a Trend Trade --- As I stated in the post you are reffering to I' m a pattern trader and use the wormald grid  -- but that method would be confusing for a beginner .

I came across  Bollinger Bands by accident , when I was initally fooling around with  intra- day trading and found combined with the stocks I trade and set at Bollinger's recomendations that they worked  -- also bought in  the mac histrogram --- if the histrogram is concave the current  trend (5 min ) seems to continue , if convex the trend generally reverses --- never noticed this before in charts . --- I find Intra day trading is  a great learning exercise , simply changing the time frames 5,15, 60 min charts can show entirly different aspects -- but when they all agree it can be a powerfull signal   ---- just my  obsevations on a form of trading that can be very fast --- you might only have minutes to open or close .


Cheers


----------



## tech/a (9 October 2006)

Blah blah
*Note;* Chart one should read  set up for a Counter trend trade.


----------



## coyotte (9 October 2006)

tech
Brokerage with IG is only a $1 per $1,000 position per side


Cheers


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## Magdoran (9 October 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *What and destroy my obnoxious #1 rating!!*
> Technical peanut outstanding achiever award--from Lord Duc.
> Enemy#1 from the darkside---the Gann Clan.
> 
> ...



Daffy, you are a funny Duck!


I always wondered who you were modelling yourself on.  Now we know. John McEnroe – “super brat”, the model of countenance and decorum during the 80’s...

Geez, Daffy, why are you complaining?  Don’t you know it’s open season on ducks?  If you’re going to strive to be MR Obnoxious 2006, expect to be roasted on a spit. Sizzle sizzle.  We can have a “Smorgas Borg”! Hahahahaha!

Hey, you made some really good points, we all know you know your stuff.  I agreed with your questioning of the odd restrictions about what comments could be made on the thread, seemed odd to me too.  But despite coyotte’s quirkiness, I believe that his intentions were honourable.

You know, it’s just a little adjustment in tone that would raise the bar.  bunyip and wavepicker did a really good job highlighting the inconsistencies, but did so in a positive way.  I know that you give credit when it’s due, maybe you can draw from this virtue?

No one expects you to become Mr nice guy on the forum – that’s not in your nature (just kidding).  And who’d want you to become a pussy!  Not me!  Just posting in the style like the post above would make it much more inviting for us mere mortals to post what they think, that’s all.  


Regards


“Moggie”

P.S. Hey, are you into tennis?  Love the game.  Used to play a lot, but not since moving back to Melbourne.  Kind of miss it.  Mag


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## Magdoran (9 October 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Wavepicker : Re Post 27
> 
> These charts are mearly examples :
> 
> ...



Hey, coyotte,


Can you please post up some examples of the wormald grid?  That would be really interesting.


Regards


Magdoran


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## coyotte (9 October 2006)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hey, coyotte,
> 
> 
> Can you please post up some examples of the wormald grid?  That would be really interesting.
> ...




I'll do so ,  but in another thread --- want to keep this one for what is was intended for.
Will be a while though , am setting up (trying to ) a network and optus doesn,t want to have a bar to do with it --- real great when U have open positions .

Cheers


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## tech/a (9 October 2006)

> “Smorgas Borg”! Hahahahaha!




I'm rolling on the floor in *Agassi*--your so funny!!

Tennis yeh me too.

Played in Glenelg districts with Mark Woodforde.
When he went on the circuit,we all thought it was a big joke.
His Dad Ray sponsored him for 12 mths and told him after that he was on his own.He won the NZ open in mth 11,got a call from another Lefty (McEnro )
soon after---then with Woodbridge.
Guess he had the last laugh well and truely!


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## barney (9 October 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I'm rolling on the floor in *Agassi*--your so funny!!
> 
> Tennis yeh me too.
> 
> ...




Now thats just plain "name dropping" .........thats worse than my "Cold Chisel and Midnight Oil"    Actually while we're in the dropping of names mood ....... Our band "Eyes"  did the Suzi Quatro support at the Taree RSL on her national tour (many moons ago now!) ..... We had to join the Union for 1 gig otherwise they wouldn't let us do it ......... I reckon they just pocketed our Union fees so they didn't have to pay us as much!!   

Come on Tech, we've had Woodbridge ....what else have ya got??   

PS Thanks to Mag for calming the waters on this thread, and thanks to Coyotte for dropping back in ............. yeah ....ok ..... and thanks to Tech for his sarcastic sense of humour!!    Cheers to all, Barney.

PPS Hey Coyotte, that Wormald stuff sounds very interesting ....Let us know when and where you post it


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## bunyip (10 October 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Hi Bunyip, here's a guide to posting an attachment, it's very easy once you've done it once or twice, happy to help if you need it, just post in the thread linked or pm me or any of the other mods:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401&highlight=attachment
> 
> ...


----------



## Magdoran (17 October 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I'm rolling on the floor in *Agassi*--your so funny!!
> 
> Tennis yeh me too.
> 
> ...



I’ve been meaning to get back to this Daffy,


So, you were a contemporary of Woodforde!  Wow, that would have been an interesting time.  I play, but came later when I gave up playing squash (saw a 40+ year old at the time a few years back have a heart attack on court, and decided I didn’t want to follow suit as I got older).  Took a while to get the strokes right…

Great game.  I tend to play more doubles these days, so the “Woodies” were an inspiration to watch, and the combination of Woodforde and McEnroe was great.  Of course there is nothing like the singles matches to watch.

Haven’t played in a while since moving back to Melbourne after a very long absence.  Interestingly there are some courts just up the road… Hmmm should dust off the racquet…

How about you?


“Mogge”


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 October 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *What and destroy my obnoxious #1 rating!!*
> Technical peanut outstanding achiever award--from Lord Duc.
> Enemy#1 from the darkside---the Gann Clan.
> 
> ...





Good evening Tech/A.

I must say this is the first time I have seen a poster analyse themselves on the forum. From your analysis what change do you foresee or will nature take care of that?  :whip    

Coyotte,

It's good to see your posts even if I don't agree. But my opinion is not the point. 

Regards
Snake


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## coyotte (18 October 2006)

> Coyotte,
> 
> It's good to see your posts even if I don't agree. But my opinion is not the point.
> 
> ...





Snake :

I'm was not asking for anyone to agree or their approval
This thread was not intended for Traders ,it started in the beginners lounge, one only has to observe how often when targets are hit that the stock is sold off to know that quite a lot of traders use this method .

Was simply demonstrating a  different type of trading style to what appears to be the norm on this forum .

Short-Term Target Trading :
Both the stocks mentioned at the time hit their Triangle Targets  --- probably won't hit their sturrup , but that's a different trade :

It,s not hard to find 5 Tri's or Flags a week , for a steady $200 profit each , with a avg of 1 loss to the max of 3 losses in a week --- if handled right losses are well below the target profit , hence a better than 1/1 bet


Come back to the point that the Anaylist whether they be T/A, F/A,Gann,Elliott or  dart throwing  are really imaterial in these types of trades .

It's about Trade Management -- After all you can get all the Anaylist's  opinions you want -- from the free stuff right through to Fat Profits etc -- Anaylists are a dime a dozen --- But only getting in there and actually Trading will teach you HOW to trade , no one can do that for you.

Also with this style of trading , your not restricted to just the one type of anaylisis , any suitable stock surgested by any form of anaylisis/tippster  can be looked at to see if either of these patterns are forming , but I generally found if U stick to much to the text book rules on patterns many a oppurtunity will be lost -- better to have tight STOPS .--- as the days pass, the rising STOP is reducing risk , to the point that there is no risk (except gaps) 

Actually a interesting articale in a recent issue of " Your Trading Edge " -- comparing -- " a Formula 1" -- Salesman, Mechanic and Driver , to :
 A Stock  --  Broker , Analyst and Trader  ---- the 3 are worlds apart 

Cheers


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## coyotte (3 December 2006)

*FXJ --- Live Trade*

Thought I'd post a Live Trade :

Using the same KISS principles as I posted with LHG in early Oct.

Trouble was as I was posting my daily thoughts about LHG  , I was being shot down by the GURUS , --- Well I'm afraid being human do'es  have its baggage of emotion , we are not all Mr Spocks 

But the KISS principles did prove the GURUS  wrong ! --- not only did LHG  hit it's target , using the the same principles it has so again in another 2 out of 2 trades -- not to bad : 3 out of 3 trades in 3 months in profit--- also looks like the " Stirup Trade " setup mentioned back then could still be a goer !


The current trade is FXJ ---  no prizes for this one -- just an example of KISS over Complexity :

TRADING PLAN :


FXJ 

Entry   1: break of Bull Flag -- Last Wed 29/11
Target 1: Flag Pole depth = 40c , = 5.20 + .40 = $5.60
Stop    1: Count Back level 4.80 -- this is now @ 4.95

Entry   2 : Rising Triangle , after flag -- enter this Mon 4/12 
Target 2 : Same as T1
Stop    2 : Rising Stop , based on Target of .40c and following R/T trend line


Entry  3 : If FJX  SP dropped below the Tri Trend Line BUT remained above the Tri STOP : then a rise above the Count Back for that Low would signal a 3rd Trade -- The flag trade would have been stopped out and closed.



Notes : High relative Vol during the Flag Pole followed by Low relative Vol during pattern set ups .



So here we have three separate trades in the one stock -- all with the same SP target but different risks (stops ) -- all  based on the same KISS principles


Cheers


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## coyotte (23 December 2006)

Count Back - E/W - ILU

The first chart is showing a possible EW count for ILU --- I'm still a rookie with EW but the principle wave pattern appears to there .

ILU in a A,B,C correction from a Wave 1 high ?

If A is completed then C could be completed --- If C is completed then ILU could be starting a Wave 3 high formation .

C/B could be of help in determining whether C has completed.

In the second chart , the 1st setup C has hit the same support level as A and begins what appears to be its Wave 3 impulse move up But fails to close above the count back line -- there would not be a entry .


The 2nd setup has two possible C/B levels the usual one would be the high within the green circle because the two highs in the red circle are not signifintly different -- but the present level is significant in that it is the support for A and has recently been support for a possible C termination and is now forming resistance and could also be forming the top of a ascending triangle .

Note that the trend line under the possible triangle is plotted under Guppy rules ie: where price reacts , price has hit this line and closed up .

Since FXJ was a flop , if ILU closes above the CB , I'll follow it through 

Cheers


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