# Investment implications of Climate Change



## SirRumpole (17 September 2019)

How to profit from global warming, where to invest, what to avoid.


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## basilio (17 September 2019)

How to survive global warming perhaps ?


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## SirRumpole (17 September 2019)

basilio said:


> How to survive global warming perhaps ?




Yep, lots of survival gear around. Air conditioners, pink batts, energy efficient housing and appliances, electric cars...


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## sptrawler (17 September 2019)

Currently nickel seems to be on the charge, with World stockpile dwindling and most mines with high grade sulphate on care and maintenance, the price is rising with projected battery demand.
This is the complete opposite to lithium, where supply has started to outstrip demand and more mines are coming on line.


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## sptrawler (17 September 2019)

The drive toward renewable energy will see an increase in demand for network infrastructure, this is a very specialised field of expertise, so engineering companies with electrical transmission design, installation and maintenance expertise, will be very sought after. IMO


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## qldfrog (17 September 2019)

This is the co2 fighting side, on the longer and more realistic scale, mitigation will be key
Civil engineering and construction company, dams, sewerage,road repairs, new mining areas in polar areas, shift of agricultural production
On the asx, mining for required elements, some oil and metal minnows with greenland exposure,
And food production as long as not bought yet by China.
Usually these plays fail lamely as you will be too early and the next terrorist attack,war,election results will capture the headlines and move the market accordingly
You would be better off in my humble opinion to play on trends such as nimbler banks, technology advances,china vs usa influences etc
But you could be right if the next election brings a government eager to try to choose winners.bradford batts anyone?


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## SirRumpole (17 September 2019)

I'd say Insurance companies would be ones to avoid, as are coal miners.


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## sptrawler (17 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I'd say Insurance companies would be ones to avoid, as are coal miners.



Metallurgical coal is in high demand, so one has to be a bit careful, making sweeping statements. Just my opinion.


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## SirRumpole (17 September 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Metallurgical coal is in high demand, so one has to be a bit careful, making sweeping statements. Just my opinion.




Yes fair enough, a distinction has to be made there.

Some strategies being adopted to adapt to climate change.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-16/radical-choice-to-confront-climate-change/11515456

The building sector would surely benefit from climigration( ie relocation of towns or communities).


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## Smurf1976 (17 September 2019)

Civil construction contractors would be one that benefit.

Any new energy infrastructure will involve some sort of civil construction. Wind, solar, hydro, transmission networks, nuclear, even just replacing old coal plants with new more efficient ones. All of that requires significant civil construction work.

Any sort of government "think big" project will also usually involve building something. A high speed rail line would be one such example as would any scheme to move bulk quantities of water from one place to another.

Infrastructure to deal with the effects of a changing climate likewise just about all involves civil works. Eg new dams or raising existing dams are one thing that will obviously needed if projections of change are correct. Sea walls or other coastal modification is another. Roads and rail where they run close to sea level and need to be raised. Ports, bridges, sewage treatment plants and the list goes on.


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## PZ99 (17 September 2019)

Invest in companies that sell skin lotion and sunnies


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## SirRumpole (17 September 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Invest in companies that sell skin lotion and sunnies




And Akubras.


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## basilio (18 September 2019)

Invest in looking for new planet to move to.
Or perhaps make a billion to New Zealand and encourage the locals to go elsewhere ?
   _______________________________
Just a simple point here.
If  the world is  going to survive as a functioning 21st Century civilisation in the next 25 years there has to be simultaneous efforts to adapt to the current effects of global heating *and* reduce, somehow, to zero and beyond the excess CO2 and other greenhouse gases we are pumping into the atmosphere.

If we don't do the first society collapses now.
If we don't  also achieve the second conditions on Earth will become intolerable for human activity for many millions of years.

Rumpy noted a story on the ABC which explored "climigration". Concerning enough but it didn't even touch what is going to happening to China or Pakistan as sea levels rise and populations are forced to move or drown
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-16/radical-choice-to-confront-climate-change/11515456


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## SirRumpole (18 September 2019)

basilio said:


> Invest in looking for new planet to move to.
> Or perhaps make a billion to New Zealand and encourage the locals to go elsewhere ?
> _______________________________
> Just a simple point here.
> ...




Sure, and we can find businesses to invest in that will make those things happen, and withdraw investment from those that won't.


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## basilio (18 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Sure, and we can find businesses to invest in that will make those things happen, and withdraw investment from those that won't.




Indeed we "could" Rumpy. Could that be compared to the  overall market place making wise or ethical choices when choosing whether to invest in tobacco, gambling or highly polluting  (but very profitable...)  ventures versus ethical, quality, life enhancing  businesses?

Or is it the absolute basic problem of the market place that* money and only profit* rules that needs to be addressed ?

Anyway enough of reality.


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## SirRumpole (18 September 2019)

basilio said:


> Or is it the absolute basic problem of the market place that* money and only profit* rules that needs to be addressed ?




No , I think that there been an increase in "ethical investment" as society becomes more "woke" , so it would seem profitable to follow the trend.


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## qldfrog (18 September 2019)

Every fashionable trend is worth following money wise, be it metoo, fake meat or veganism, just need to get out at the right time
Especially true nowadays with social media where we have a parallel world where reality or basic sciences or facts do not matter, but the dollars you can get are not virtual


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## sptrawler (18 September 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Currently nickel seems to be on the charge, with World stockpile dwindling and most mines with high grade sulphate on care and maintenance, the price is rising with projected battery demand.
> This is the complete opposite to lithium, where supply has started to outstrip demand and more mines are coming on line.




An article showing the results of over exuberance and expectation, with demand for lithium. 
As we have said in other threads, everyone is getting a bit ahead of themselves, with renewables and demand.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...oubles-put-workforce-on-shaky-ground/11470252


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## sptrawler (18 September 2019)

Another raw material used in battery manufacturing, which is suffering from the same over supply issues as lithium, is cobalt.

https://www.belmontmetals.com/overs...creating-fluctuating-cobalt-prices-into-2019/


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## SirRumpole (18 September 2019)

On the other hand, vanadium seems to be surging.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/vanadium-prices-are-surging-again-whos-set-to-benefit/


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## sptrawler (18 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> On the other hand, vanadium seems to be surging.
> 
> https://stockhead.com.au/resources/vanadium-prices-are-surging-again-whos-set-to-benefit/



Good pick up, vanadium is another of those minerals that became uneconomical to mine, so they were put on care and maintenance from memory. No doubt the LME stockpile is suffering.


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## SirRumpole (18 September 2019)

New home building techniques create bushfire resistant homes.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...ushfire-risk-rated-home-cheap-to-run/11517878


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## So_Cynical (18 September 2019)

New opportunities will spring from places that the masses are not considering, water is a big one and not just the water but the infrastructure around it and access to it.


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## basilio (18 September 2019)

It is interesting to explore the range of  potential investment opportunities that could/should arise from dealing with CC issues.

I suppose my caution would be in whether we had a sufficiently robust economic/financial/social system to take advantage of these opportunities.  In an ideal future  one could identify and invest in those opportunities in the belief that the basic society infrastructure was sound enough to ensure a return on investment.  In  my view the risks of  widespread failures with  insurance companies unviable, scores of seaside cities under extreme stress, many countries facing  extreme heat conditions, fires, loss of food production undermines the potential of "making a buck". Mere survival will be a feat in itself.

Just my


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## basilio (18 September 2019)

For what  it's worth I came across a review of a Fairphone 3 .  Long story short an ethically produced mobile phone that is totally repairable and upgrade able.

But it costs a whack more than its competitors.  

* Fairphone 3 review: the most ethical and repairable phone you can buy *
4 / 5 stars  4 out of 5 stars.
Dutch firm asks £200 above the norm for a smartphone that might help change the industry
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/sep/18/fairphone-3-review-ethical-phone


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## SirRumpole (18 September 2019)

basilio said:


> For what  it's worth I came across a review of a Fairphone 3 .  Long story short an ethically produced mobile phone that is totally repairable and upgrade able.
> 
> But it costs a whack more than its competitors.
> 
> ...




I really doubt if people are going to pay 200 pounds more for something that is such a dog performance wise, even if it is "ethical".

They should be able to do better than that. I think it's a bit of a rip off really.


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## So_Cynical (19 September 2019)

basilio said:


> For what  it's worth I came across a review of a Fairphone 3 .  Long story short an ethically produced mobile phone that is totally repairable and upgrade able...But it costs a whack more than its competitors.




On the subject of wastage, my washing machine died the other week and after shopping for a new one thought thats it's really weird how there are so many manufacturers 
and different models, it's a super un-economic way to get the washing done, a shocking waste to build a 100 different washers that all do the same thing, and why such a 
limited life span for washers? its an electric motor and a tub basically, very simple and serviceable and yet they are near totally a throw away item..its nuts in a finite world.


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## Jack Aubrey (19 September 2019)

For those of an apocalyptic mindset, an accessible cache of gold and silver and a trade-able skill set would be your most valuable assets. I reckon people like my brother, a feral with many practical skills, will be better prepared than me with a uni education and decades experience as a government policy wonk. Maybe a plot of arable land, some big solar-rechargeable batteries and electric tools etc.

In the lead-up to the apocalypse (or a milder adaptation phase preceeded sunlit uplands) shares in gold miners, infrastructure companies, "new foods" and the minerals/equipment needed for a de-carbonised  and decentralised energy system would have the more immediate payoffs (if the financial system doesn't collapse.  I'd also advocate (and be politically active) at the local and State government level to try to avoid them becoming insurers of last resort for those who are not taking action themselves. I personally see the preparedness of governments to provide unlimited "disaster relief" and to bail-out or subsidise companies with stranded assets to be one of the scariest aspects of a (possibly) deteriorating climate. 

Just thoughts.


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## SirRumpole (19 September 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> I personally see the preparedness of governments to provide unlimited "disaster relief" and to bail-out or subsidise companies with stranded assets to be one of the scariest aspects of a (possibly) deteriorating climate.




Yes, look at the drought relief package (even though some say drought is unrelated to climate change) it is still is being done. I can see insurance companies needing to be baled out at some stage.


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## Jack Aubrey (19 September 2019)

Indeed. As/if particular places become uninsurable (as did happen in New Orleans) the impacts reverberate through the economy and political pressure mounts for the government to underwrite rebuilding.  And some areas of Australia have barely been out of drought since the Millennium Drought - surviving only on drought relief for seven years in ten.  I'm not against genuine publicly-funded "structural adjustment", but these sorts of payments and subsidies don't actually result in changes to behaviour or investment patterns that may be more future-proof (they actually reinforce existing behaviours).  

I think local governments face a very difficult dilemma in this space.  If they don't act to limit their liability (eg. by using higher flood levels in their planning) they run a risk of being held responsible for homes being impacted by flooding or erosion. If they do act and there are impacts on existing/projected land values, they'll face litigation and electoral impacts.  I had lunch recently with a elderly relative who is a vehement climate denier/skeptic and he has taken his local council to task for trying to rezone his waterfront home as "flood prone". They relented, but that only means the risk is kicked down the road (and probably magnified) if a new owner does get flooded.  In the end, of course, it is rate/taxpayers who bear this risk and if, even mild climate scenarios play out, the costs will be crippling.


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## Smurf1976 (23 September 2019)

Perhaps the most obvious investment theme relating to this issue is as a broad market and economic cycle timing signal.

A look at any mainstream news source will reveal that this is a very high profile issue at present.

Looking back, previous occasions when this became a very high profile issue were late last decade and at the end of the 1980's. Both were followed by global economic upsets of significance.

My thinking there is that it's an indicator but not a cause. It's much like the construction of very tall buildings and so on, it tends to peak at the end of the economic cycle but it isn't the cause of that ending.


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## sptrawler (24 September 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> On the subject of wastage, my washing machine died the other week and after shopping for a new one thought thats it's really weird how there are so many manufacturers
> and different models, it's a super un-economic way to get the washing done, a shocking waste to build a 100 different washers that all do the same thing, and why such a
> limited life span for washers? its an electric motor and a tub basically, very simple and serviceable and yet they are near totally a throw away item..its nuts in a finite world.



On the same theme, when I was a young bloke, just about every Country town had a T.V repair shop. They have gone the way of the dinosaur, as you say it is a throw away society.
Also with the relative drop in the cost of both the t.v's and washers, as a percentage of income, people tend to have less trouble finding the money to replace them.
Add to that the increase in labour costs to fix things, and everything ends up on the verge collection.


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## SirRumpole (24 September 2019)

sptrawler said:


> On the same theme, when I was a young bloke, just about every Country town had a T.V repair shop. They have gone the way of the dinosaur, as you say it is a throw away society.
> Also with the relative drop in the cost of both the t.v's and washers, as a percentage of income, people tend to have less trouble finding the money to replace them.
> Add to that the increase in labour costs to fix things, and everything ends up on the verge collection.




But you have to balance that out with how long goods last these days. TV repairmen were needed because vacuum tubes used to fail regularly, these days tv sets last for 15 years or more without problems, but when they do go there are much better models out there so the old ones get ditched.

Swings and roundabouts...


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## qldfrog (24 September 2019)

Complexity increases, few people want to even look at the belly of a dead tv, last 2 led tvs i had were brought from the tip
Open look at blown up component(usually the power module) ebay for 50c to 1$,wait 10 days reassemble
Yes these are only 300 or 400$ at jb but for 1 or 2h work at most, tax free and guilt free
And doing more for the planet than spamming crap about  GW on a forum
Not bad time investment, same for mower, washing machine,etc etc
But do people nowadays have even a clue on how things they use every day work?


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## qldfrog (24 September 2019)

So if people were more educated, we could maybe gave less brainless consumption..but on the other end our gdp would fall and it would be harder to brainwash people so no government will go there


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## Jack Aubrey (24 September 2019)

I think qldfrog has some bankable skills for the climate apocalypse. Maybe you should consider an IPO.

My father-in-law (deceased 20 years) had a philosophy of always buying the best, simplest and most durable products and using them until they were unrepairable. I think he owned a maximum of four cars in his lifetime and one he bought new in 1960 is still going (although it now requires "classic car" rego to be driven legally and mechanics drool over it whenever it gets out for a run). He was, by the way, a very wealthy man by most standards.


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## sptrawler (24 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> But you have to balance that out with how long goods last these days. TV repairmen were needed because vacuum tubes used to fail regularly, these days tv sets last for 15 years or more without problems, but when they do go there are much better models out there so the old ones get ditched.
> 
> Swings and roundabouts...



Yes I mentioned that in another post, I was trying to keep the theme to the throw out ideology.
But as you say, the fact things do last so long these days adds to the problem, in the end things last that long nowadays that people either want to upgrade or just get bored with the product, unlike 30years ago when things broke or wore out.
That IMO is causing a lot of the problems economically today, people can stop buying because things are so reliable, they can just decide to stick with them.
In the 1970-80's red motor Holdens etc required a rebuild and new rings at 160,000klm, these days even the most basic 4cyl car will do well over 200,000k's due to the improvements in metal technology and as you say the t.v's just don't break down.
Apple are having trouble moving there new phones because people are happy enough with their old iphone 6 and so it goes with most things. Instead of buying a massive surround sound system with speaker towers, people are using small blue tooth speakers, as a music center, radio etc.
So discretionary spending on these old style big ticket items has gone, also even the cheapest laptop is sufficient for web surfing email etc, therefore unless someone has a specific requirement, why upgrade to a bling speed $2,000 computer? Most aren't IMO.
These are some of the reasons helicopter money isn't working, most people have everything they need, so the money will pay down debt or go towards a holiday etc.
Apologies for drifting off topic, but it is interesting times, we live in. The only obvious outcome to me, is a drop in living standards, to drive demand. Or a drop in living standards, because of a lack of demand.
It is a very good time to be investing IMO.
Just my opinion


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## jfufgiugfx (24 September 2019)

Interesting thread. I was thinking that the extreme Aussie drought must break sooner or later. Nothing lasts forever, so a good bet could be pastoral companies or companies that have significant drought affected land holdings. 2020 could be the year.


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## sptrawler (24 September 2019)

jfufgiugfx said:


> Interesting thread. I was thinking that the extreme Aussie drought must break sooner or later. Nothing lasts forever, so a good bet could be pastoral companies or companies that have significant drought affected land holdings. 2020 could be the year.



You are spot on, there has been a lot of activity in the rural sector by China as well as others, in recent years.
The most recent being Ruralco, which was bought out by Nutrien the Canadian fertiliser company, this year.

https://www.afr.com/companies/agric...en-light-for-ruralco-takeover-20190822-p52jlm


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## Smurf1976 (24 September 2019)

jfufgiugfx said:


> Interesting thread. I was thinking that the extreme Aussie drought must break sooner or later. Nothing lasts forever, so a good bet could be pastoral companies or companies that have significant drought affected land holdings. 2020 could be the year.



A good point yes.

Those who are only looking at short term performance of companies, especially those who are just looking at numbers and don't know what the company even does, will likely have steered well clear of these stocks at present which may create an opportunity.


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 September 2019)

I do not believe that climate will make any difference to investment patterns in Australia. 

Anyone who moves $ out of Australia because of this is not just simple, but a simpleton. 

The world has been through more than these weather variations, and it will be again.

I myself see population growth as the biggest danger, and would suggest that only people with Gumnut genes be allowed to reproduce.

I am a member of a seance group and have consulted The Great Khan on this and he says it's not a bad idea until your descendants take up some mad religion. He was a Tengrist btw. and wasn't referring to Tengrism. 

Kids, eh.

gg


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## Struzball (26 September 2019)

jfufgiugfx said:


> Interesting thread. I was thinking that the extreme Aussie drought must break sooner or later. Nothing lasts forever, so a good bet could be pastoral companies or companies that have significant drought affected land holdings. 2020 could be the year.




I agree, if climate change means more droughts and floods, I would be investing in the suppliers to agricultural companies.  Fence replacements, irrigation supplies.
Means to maximise yields in a harsher climate via technology etc.
For that reason I own shares in Elders.

I don't see insurance companies ever getting the raw end of the deal, so I consider their profits pretty safe.  And if there's catastrophic consequences you'd be mad to not be insured.. bushfire etc.

Droughts may increase property sales of farmers getting off the land.

Elders is exposed to it all, retail, insurance, real estate.  It's worth the risk in my opinion, particularly if the share price is discounted due to people avoiding the industry due to climate risk.  And when the drought does break it can only benefit their bottom line.


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## qldfrog (26 September 2019)

Interesting reasoning and no big flaw i can detect
Makes sense


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## Jack Aubrey (26 September 2019)

I agree that drought generally involves people leaving the land - especially family farms.  There are also demographic changes going on and drought often tips the balance. The larger and more viable farms increasingly end up in corporate hands.  One interesting trend I saw during the "Millennium Drought" in Queensland was big corporates buying up grazing properties in several climate zones with a view to moving production around (eg. bringing cattle to coastal and more southern properties for fattening).  The current drought has decimated breeding stock too, so rebuilding the herd will be a big task.  I do agree that companies like Elders, provided they are "agile", are well placed to be big players.


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## sptrawler (26 September 2019)

Elders has had issues from memory, but as they are one of the only independent rural companies left since ruralco were bought out, they should do o.k. Even if they don't, they would no doubt be bought out, to keep competition and diversity alive in the industry.
Just my opinion, based on years of being wrong.


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## Jack Aubrey (3 October 2019)

Interesting launch of a startup in the "new foods" space yesterday - https://www.businessinsider.com.au/v2food-australia-launch-2019-10

I'll be watching this one with interest.


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## basilio (4 October 2019)

On the big picture about the effects of  CC on our financial/economic system.  The warning notes issues around the impact of CC waether events on insurers, damage to coastal properties impairing property values, losses to agriculture undermining  loans to farmers.

And more. Worth a read and a think when considering where to invest.

Australia 
* Reserve Bank warns climate change posing increasing risk to financial stability *
RBA says it is becoming increasingly important for investors and institutions to actively manage carbon risk
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...posing-increasing-risk-to-financial-stability


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## sptrawler (4 October 2019)

basilio said:


> On the big picture about the effects of  CC on our financial/economic system.  The warning notes issues around the impact of CC waether events on insurers, damage to coastal properties impairing property values, losses to agriculture undermining  loans to farmers.
> 
> And more. Worth a read and a think when considering where to invest.
> 
> ...



I suppose the really big issue with this, is will the State and Commonwealth Governments be able to fund their superannuation obligations into the future, as the statutory obligation on consolidated revenue is eaten up funding CC mitigation?
The Commonwealth Government has foreseen this issue to some degree, with the 'future fund', I'm not so sure the State Governments have put in place anything to mitigate their obligations.


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## basilio (5 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I suppose the really big issue with this, is will the State and Commonwealth Governments be able to fund their superannuation obligations into the future, as the statutory obligation on consolidated revenue is eaten up funding CC mitigation?
> The Commonwealth Government has foreseen this issue to some degree, with the 'future fund', I'm not so sure the State Governments have put in place anything to mitigate their obligations.




Perhaps.. Why not consider some other possibilities?
1) Recognise that the fossil fuel industry has been highly responsible for the extent of CC insofar as they  funded the denial industry when their own scientists told them the truth about global warming.
Have to be a few trillion dollars in those pockets

2) Search out the super rich who have made the most money promoting mindless consumerism and separate them from a few trillion dollars. Serve them right.

3) Swing their gaze to the Big Banks and Huge developers who likewise have made out like bandits. 

4) Recognise that the real, overwhelming problem of balancing the budget when CC hits lies with the feckless single mothers/ New Start welfare /DSP recipients and squeeze them till their is nothing but a husk left.

Anyway I wouldn't be counting too much on superannuation pensions, public or private, if/when the chickens come home to roost. Crisis Capitalism (see 1-3) will ensure who gets it in the neck.


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## basilio (5 October 2019)

One option for dealing constructively with Climate Change is a fast developing clean economy.
If anyone is interested in hearing what that looks like and you live in Melbourne check out this event.

Event held on Thursday 31st October 7-9pm
https://lighterfootprints.org/event/living-in-the-clean-economy/


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## Jack Aubrey (5 October 2019)

You had me until


basilio said:


> 4) Recognise that the real, overwhelming problem of balancing the budget when CC hits lies with the feckless single mothers/ New Start welfare /DSP recipients and squeeze them till their is nothing but a husk left.




Here's how the Commonwealth Government actually spends money.


When you also consider that making people destitute, whether by poor economic management accident or by deliberate design, simply transfers the cost to the "Public Order and Safety" line item (Do you know how much it costs to keep a person in jail?) then any "savings by deliberate cruelty" are illusory.  When you also add the administrative costs of measures such as welfare "debt" collection, the Indue card and ensuring the unemployed apply for a quota of non-existent jobs, we end up paying a "cruelty premium" just to ensure that us "good", middle-class people don't feel we are being taken advantage of by the grubby poor. The only people who really benefit from this system are the corporations who come in and deliver these "services" for Government. Not one extra real job is created and no money is "saved".


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## SirRumpole (5 October 2019)

I'm sure bas was being sarcastic, but the figures you provided are interesting. 

I didn't realise that either welfare or defence was so big. There is probably some fat that can be cut from family tax breaks, I think paying people to have children can lead to unintended consequences when the money goes elsewhere but on the kids.


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## Jack Aubrey (5 October 2019)

Sorry if I over-reacted to bas. I have that "don't punch down" gene 

Welfare is dominated by aged pension, NDIS and family payments - I was never a fan of the latter as I don't think having children is an automatic disadvantage.

Defence is difficult as the current Government is committed to increasing the % we spend.  The best we can hope for in the short term is greater efficiency and better tendering.


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## sptrawler (5 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Sorry if I over-reacted to bas. I have that "don't punch down" gene
> 
> Welfare is dominated by aged pension, NDIS and family payments - I was never a fan of the latter as I don't think having children is an automatic disadvantage.
> 
> Defence is difficult as the current Government is committed to increasing the % we spend.  The best we can hope for in the short term is greater efficiency and better tendering.



Yes you have to accept anyone on welfare is worthy, anyone not on welfare isn't paying enough and all issue will be adjudicated by those eligible for a public service pension.


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## basilio (6 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Sorry if I over-reacted to bas. I have that "don't punch down" gene
> 
> Welfare is dominated by aged pension, NDIS and family payments - I was never a fan of the latter as I don't think having children is an automatic disadvantage.
> 
> Defence is difficult as the current Government is committed to increasing the % we spend.  The best we can hope for in the short term is greater efficiency and better tendering.




Your analysis of the totally BS  "Option 4" thought bubble was spot on.
Doesn't take away the fact that some of the most vocal and vicious members of Parliament will defend it to the death - particularly if the aforementioned  targets do it themselves.

We are facing difficult times. The Government has legislated for  around  70 billion dollars of tax cuts to the those earning top income tier to come into effect  from  2022 . When that happens the conversation about balancing the budget will return with a vengance.   We can expect all pensions and public health care expenditure to be  under threat.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...d-receive-77bn-in-tax-cuts-under-liberal-plan


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## Jack Aubrey (6 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Yes you have to accept anyone on welfare is worthy, anyone not on welfare isn't paying enough and all issue will be adjudicated by those eligible for a public service pension.




I must have been away the day "judging the worthiness of others" was covered in my public service training and I had no idea that I was in a position to decide tax rates. Maybe when we all go full "Prosperity Pentacostal" we can do away with welfare altogether and just let the "unworthy" starve until they conform and seek forgiveness for being born into the wrong family or without the intelligence and education to know how "we" want them to behave. Maybe a good climate emergency will allow us to finally have an excuse to criminalise the behaviours of everyone whose lifestyles and beliefs we don't like and ship them off to our offshore gulags. I'm sure that will work out just fine.


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## SirRumpole (6 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> I must have been away the day "judging the worthiness of others" was covered in my public service training and I had no idea that I was in a position to decide tax rates. Maybe when we all go full "Prosperity Pentacostal" we can do away with welfare altogether and just let the "unworthy" starve until they conform and seek forgiveness for being born into the wrong family or without the intelligence and education to know how "we" want them to behave. Maybe a good climate emergency will allow us to finally have an excuse to criminalise the behaviours of everyone whose lifestyles and beliefs we don't like and ship them off to our offshore gulags. I'm sure that will work out just fine.




Yes indeed, the politicians decide who is "worthy", the public servants just enforce the laws.


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## sptrawler (6 October 2019)

Hey Bas, even Paul Keating, agrees that the top tax rates are too high, so it isn't just one side of politics pushing for a reduction.
I'm sure public service pensions will come under scrutiny, as they are largely unfunded, other than Commonwealth ones I'm not sure if the future fund covers them yet.


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## SirRumpole (6 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Hey Bas, even Paul Keating, agrees that the top tax rates are too high, so it isn't just one side of politics pushing for a reduction.
> I'm sure public service pensions will come under scrutiny, as they are largely unfunded, other than Commonwealth ones I'm not sure if the future fund covers them yet.




All very well reducing the middle/upper tax levels, but those cuts have to be paid for.

There doesn't seem much interest from the government in doing away with middle class welfare like negative gearing, family trusts and super ripoffs (sorry concessions), which means that there will really be a bonanza for those most well off at the expense of what ? Health and education most likely.


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## sptrawler (6 October 2019)

I agree with you Rumpy,, but the problem is the whole tax system needs to be looked at, currently it only gets looked at in a party specific way, therefore it all stays clunky and unmanageable.
There is no point saying this or that needs changing, it needs to be looked at non politically and holistically tax should be structured to encourage productive investment, research and development, and reinvigorate modern manufacturing. If that means people and miners paying more tax, so be it, but if all you are going to do with tax is increase welfare, it will end up with us becoming another Greece IMO.


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## Smurf1976 (6 October 2019)

basilio said:


> Crisis Capitalism




Now that's a term I like.

I don't mean I like what it is and so on but it's two words which sum up something that could otherwise lead to a half our speech trying to explain it.

Crisis Capitalism - yes, that sums up that approach and in just two words. 

I might have to borrow that term more widely.......


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## basilio (6 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Now that's a term I like.
> 
> I don't mean I like what it is and so on but it's two words which sum up something that could otherwise lead to a half our speech trying to explain it.
> 
> ...





Looking for more info on Crisis Capitalism ?  Check out this analysis.

* Naomi Klein: how power profits from disaster *
Stranded people make their way along Canal Street in New Orleans on 30 Aug 2005 as Hurricane Katrina struck Photograph: Gary Coronado/AP
After a crisis, private contractors move in and suck up funding for work done badly, if at all – then those billions get cut from government budgets. Like Grenfell Tower, Hurricane Katrina revealed a disdain for the poor. By Naomi Klein

Thu 6 Jul 2017 01.00 EDT   Last modified on Tue 13 Mar 2018 14.00 EDT

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8,302

There have been times in my reporting from disaster zones when I have had the unsettling feeling that I was seeing not just a crisis in the here and now, but getting a glimpse of the future – a preview of where the road we are all on is headed, unless we somehow grab the wheel and swerve. When I listen to Donald Trump speak, with his obvious relish in creating an atmosphere of chaos and destabilisation, I often think: I’ve seen this before, in those strange moments when portals seemed to open up into our collective future.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/06/naomi-klein-how-power-profits-from-disaster


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## SirRumpole (7 October 2019)

A few opportunities here:-

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science...-have-10-years-to-start-removing-co2/11563584


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## Jack Aubrey (8 October 2019)

And further to the "new foods" aspect: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...ternative-to-the-original-beef-burger-2019-10

I'm a meat-eater and I'm afraid I roll my eyes at a lot of the "animal rights" propaganda, but I think this is a great development.  Animal production is such a water intensive business (per kilo/kilojoule consumed, meat is many times more water intensive than any plant-based food)

What I don't really understand is the way our rural politicians are against this sort of innovation - trying to get plant-based products banned from using terms such as "meat" and "milk". I would have thought they'd be happy to see expanding markets for any agricultural sector. But then there's a lot I don't understand about our rural politicians.


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## qldfrog (9 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> And further to the "new foods" aspect: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...ternative-to-the-original-beef-burger-2019-10
> 
> I'm a meat-eater and I'm afraid I roll my eyes at a lot of the "animal rights" propaganda, but I think this is a great development.  Animal production is such a water intensive business (per kilo/kilojoule consumed, meat is many times more water intensive than any plant-based food)
> 
> What I don't really understand is the way our rural politicians are against this sort of innovation - trying to get plant-based products banned from using terms such as "meat" and "milk". I would have thought they'd be happy to see expanding markets for any agricultural sector. But then there's a lot I don't understand about our rural politicians.



To try to add a bit of fairness to the debate, to get a kg of lamb grown in semi arid Australia or beef raised in the NT, do you really think it takes more water than growing a crop field, and do you really want to try to plough NT for cropping with desert dunes within 2 decades?
The big advantage  Australian farmers have is extensive agriculture: big wide open space where your herds can roam freely and kind of self manage themselves compensating our high labour cost
If you move to that sort of product, we will export corn or wheat to China's factories which will return most probably tainted products cashing the added value.
Economically for Australia, this is similar to shooting oneself in the foot
But with our history, will most probably happen
And think about the real sustainability effect, away from the biased data of cattle fed on cereals in feedlots or farting cows  as used in all decent propaganda...


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## qldfrog (9 October 2019)

I think we should split this thread into 2 branches
One is" investment implication of climate change"
That is more with remediation work, risk for insurances,etc
And is world wide
And a second branch which is investment implication of co2 emissions attempts:
West economies only, moving further the imbalance of power toward china, fly shame and similar Greta effect like traffic jams in city, most probably soon exo terrorism

A difference as a business might close its door but reopen in India as a result of #2 whereas #1 are more long term and global
#2 is more a fad trend which will disappear with our western economies in 3 decades..
Remember where china was 30y ago, if you invest for long term aka retirement, this needs to be taken into account..try to sell fake meat to China


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## basilio (13 October 2019)

This story highlights the potential upside and downside of companies dealing with the implications global warming.  Note the big stick at the end of the story.

* Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt, says Mark Carney *
Bank of England governor warns of financial collapse linked to climate emergency

Damian Carrington Environment editor

 @dpcarrington 
Sun 13 Oct 2019 07.00 EDT   Last modified on Sun 13 Oct 2019 07.02 EDT

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Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, has led efforts to address the dangers global heating poses to the financial sector. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images
Companies and industries that are not moving towards zero-carbon emissions will be punished by investors and go bankrupt, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

Mark Carney also told the Guardian it was possible that the global transition needed to tackle the climate crisis could result in an abrupt financial collapse. He said the longer action to reverse emissions was delayed, the more the risk of collapse would grow.

.*..On Tuesday, Carney told big corporations they had two years to agree rules for reporting climate risks before global regulators devised their own and made them compulsory.*
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...is-bankrupt-mark-carney-bank-england-governor


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## Jack Aubrey (14 October 2019)

Our RB Deputy-Governor was actually refused permission to speak about CC at the recent meeting of C'wealth and State Treasurers.

On the subject of adaptation impacts, I found this:

Last year, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) found that “between 2007–08 and 2016–17, average home and contents premiums … have increased by between 23% and 67% in northern Australia, and by 16% in the rest of Australia”, and that “in 2016-17, the average annual home and contents premium in northern Australia was $2000, which is about double the average for the rest of Australia”.

The worst affected places are “concentrated along the coast of north Queensland, far-north Queensland, the Pilbara, Darwin and central Australia”.​
Apparently, the politicians from the affected areas are now lobbying for the C'wealth Government to subsidise insurance premiums for people in N. Australia.  I guess this is how we do things now.  This and more dams to hold all that water that will be immediately bought up by the government's mates.


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## SirRumpole (14 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Our RB Deputy-Governor was actually refused permission to speak about CC at the recent meeting of C'wealth and State Treasurers.
> 
> On the subject of adaptation impacts, I found this:
> 
> ...




In Central West NSW my insurance premiums have gone from around $800 to $1600 in about 10 years.

Not in a flood area, unlikely to have bushfires as I live on cleared land. Is all very weird.


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## qldfrog (14 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Our RB Deputy-Governor was actually refused permission to speak about CC at the recent meeting of C'wealth and State Treasurers.
> 
> On the subject of adaptation impacts, I found this:
> 
> ...



Could it be linked by any chance to the non PC break in issues there more than weather
Or just the fact that insurances are getting better with it to assess risks and not do one fit for all policy, plus getting more money overall
So far, gw has had no effect on Northern Australia insurance policies.cyclones are not new, but having more and more people living under these climate has an effect
Wait till we have a cyclone on the GC, there was one in the late 1800 but i have the feeling GW will be blamed when this happens, we are statistically due for one
The insurance policies for the canal estates will go up the roof and every Australian will pay a levy..
Just wait and see


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## Jack Aubrey (20 October 2019)

It looks like those leftist radicals at Goldman Sachs have been drinking the same cool aid as Greta and Extinction Rebellion.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/taking-the-heat/report.pdf

(Some interesting investment approaches here)


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## qldfrog (20 October 2019)

You do not need to believe in a religion to profit from it
It would be silly not to leverage any trend be it vegan, wind power, etc
Even in the bible, the temple was a busy marketplace
Follow the lemmings, better be in front
We should all know that especially in a stock forum so the interest of this specific thread
If some suckers want to buy  a decarb home machine and i can build one, i am happy to sell one
Actually, pm me if you are interested in such a project.


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## SirRumpole (20 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> You do not need to believe in a religion to profit from it




Right, ask most Catholic priests.


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## Tink (20 October 2019)

Catholic Priest like Pope John Paul II


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## moXJO (20 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> It looks like those leftist radicals at Goldman Sachs have been drinking the same cool aid as Greta and Extinction Rebellion.
> 
> https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/taking-the-heat/report.pdf
> 
> (Some interesting investment approaches here)



Goldman sachs has a few old members making profits. Thats not always for the right reasons.


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## Jack Aubrey (23 October 2019)

1. I do love a good Data Visualisation.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ng-insurance-costs-from-climate-risk/11624108

Investment Implications? - I'm not buying property ATM but I'd probably avoid the "red zones".  There could, of course, be some bargains around once this risk is fully factored into price.  

2. Apparently, Barnaby Joyce has been saying that farmers on marginal land should consider getting out of the game. I always find it difficult when I agree with anything he says, but I do in this instance. In some areas, farms have been in official drought for 11 of the past 19 years. When you consider the time needed to recover, especially if you have sold off your breeders, that doesn't leave a lot of seasons to make any profit at all.


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## Tink (23 October 2019)

Off topic, and some history -

*The pope, the president and the prime minister.*

Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II were both shot at that time.
Margaret Thatcher was also a part of the three.


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## SirRumpole (23 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> 1. I do love a good Data Visualisation.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ng-insurance-costs-from-climate-risk/11624108
> 
> ...




I reckon the government should buy back some of these unviable farms and return them to the natural environment.

Plant trees and native grasses when conditions are right and let nature take it's course.

They could rightly claim climate change mitigation and make us look good in the eyes of the world.


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## Jack Aubrey (23 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I reckon the government should buy back some of these unviable farms and return them to the natural environment.
> 
> Plant trees and native grasses when conditions are right and let nature take it's course.
> 
> They could rightly claim climate change mitigation and make us look good in the eyes of the world.




Absolutely - even pay farm families to stay and manage the regeneration through a couple of drought cycles (ie. control the inevitable weeds, ferals and erosion as the land recovers and do some active regeneration of native grasslands and trees).  It would make good use of their skills and equipment. Some moderate grazing during good years could even be used to help regeneration and provide additional income. I'd vote for that!


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## sptrawler (23 October 2019)

Well the insurance companies will be smiling, they don't need to worry about an excuse for premium increases, a ready made map is already out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ng-insurance-costs-from-climate-risk/11624108


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## basilio (23 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Well the insurance companies will be smiling, they don't need to worry about an excuse for premium increases, a ready made map is already out.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ng-insurance-costs-from-climate-risk/11624108



I think that's called reality SP.   In fact Munich Re has been stating the obvious for 30 plus years; CC will cause chaos in insurance markets becasue of

1) Additional damage caused by extreme events
2) Properties under risk of  inundation as sea levels rise.

Yep The Pope is a Catholic..


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## sptrawler (23 October 2019)

I wonder, IF the impending disaster is averted, will the insurance premiums be reversed.


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## Jack Aubrey (23 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I wonder, IF the impending disaster is averted, will the insurance premiums be reversed.




I think the reinsurance/underwriting market is pretty competitive so, in theory, yes. The "problem" would be the interaction with local/State planning laws which may "sterilise" some areas for redevelopment (cf. New Orleans) leaving the owners and mortgage holders with stranded assets.

As with any change, the current holders of potentially stranded assets will try to pass them on to a bigger fool before maximum losses accrue.  In some cases that bigger fool will be the public purse.


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## qldfrog (23 October 2019)

I posted that a bit earlier in another thread but good opportunity ahead for people scared of sea rise which does not happen:https://interestingengineering.com/...ce-shelves-might-be-overestimated-study-finds
Good bargains with all these extinction rebellion guys selling their seafront mansions in panic


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## Knobby22 (23 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> As with any change, the current holders of potentially stranded assets will try to pass them on to a bigger fool before maximum losses accrue.  In some cases that bigger fool will be the public purse.




Very true.

And its a slow process over 80 years.

The inundation e.g. of sections of Florida is occurring but is obvious to potential buyers.

The bigger risk is buying a property on a cliff that is being eroded at 4 times the rate previously. I saw a show (English) where the owners were losing a meter of their property every year and were spending a fortune trying to slow it down with netting and foliage and tyres. They were shocked at how quickly it was eroding and feared they only had about three years left....  crying to the media to try  to get the government to help by dropping boulders. They were obviously  the bigger fool in this case.
Not that case but good video. Go to about 40 seconds in.


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## qldfrog (23 October 2019)

Erosion does and did  happen before global warming
Same with flooded area etc
You can go to Aighe Morte in France and visit the port where the crusaders left during the middle age
You are 7km inland
You do not need any global warming action to know canal estates on the gold coast will go under in the next 100y after a storm surge
It is good if insurance companies take this into account, a bit weak to blame it on global warming but at least going the right way


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## sptrawler (23 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Erosion does and did  happen before global warming
> Same with flooded area etc
> You can go to Aighe Morte in France and visit the port where the crusaders left during the middle age
> You are 7km inland
> ...



ONE hundred million years ago, the bone-dry red heart of *Australia* was almost entirely covered, by a vast sea populated with strange prehistoric marine life. ... “*Australia* looked like an archipelago with land down the east and west,” Adelaide science writer Danielle Clode told news.com.augo


Actually you can just go 300klm inland from Sydney.

https://australianmuseum.net.au/learn/australia-over-time/fossils/sites/canowindra/

From the article:
The Canowindra fauna is a very rich Late Devonian fish fauna. All of the fossil specimens are preserved on a single bedding plane, part of an ancient fish community which had been trapped in a pool of water which dried up, killing the fish. Incoming sediments later buried these fishes quickly and quietly, with minor disturbance to the fish skeletons. The Canowindra site is listed as part of Australia's National Heritage because of its international scientific importance.


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## macca (23 October 2019)

If you go to Mungo National Park in Western NSW, you can read all about the lake system that supported hundreds of aboriginal people in the last ice age.

The lakes are now mainly dried out, what happened ?

The NPWS state that the weather patterns that currently blow and flow along the Aussie Bight used to blow across Townsville Qld, consequently this area of NSW used to have the same weather pattern that Tassie has now

Weather is always changing and farmers should use local records for guidance as to stock levels or plantings.

I really  believe that many farms are poorly managed, there are many examples of people changing their methods and achieving amazing results in a few years.

Overstocking is rife and the refusal to adjust stock levels when dry periods start mean that many farmers lurch from feast to famine in a vicious cycle.

Those companies that rely on the agricultural industries are subject to the vagaries of weather, so weather needs to be monitored for good seasons and bad seasons, jump in when it rains and lighten off when rain stops falling


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## basilio (23 October 2019)

There are always investment opportunities and it's good to know that human ingenuity can tackle and solve any problem no mater how challenging.

It's not raining ? No problem Miles Research can make it rain...
Trust us and pay us.

 Print Email  Facebook  Twitter  More
*Rain salesman says his business is attracting investors, but experts say his claims don't stack up*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-23/wimmera-mans-company-sells-rain-to-farmers/11630028


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## basilio (23 October 2019)

Understand the Man from Miles Research

*Director*
_David Miles is a motivated humanitarian who believes that humankind has been entrusted with a duty-of-care over all life on earth.


David believes that in order to secure the majesty of Earth's safe future, its disparate nations, races, religions and industries must pursue a more balanced accord which transcends traditional human differences.


Acknowledging that this will require the progressive displacement of general military armament manufacturing, David proposes the re-purposing of already-existing manufacturing facilities, to enable the high speed production of (a new order of) advanced agricultural systems.


The goal: the enduring viability of planet Earth, as opposed to an apparent present mindless race towards its destruction.


With this goal in mind David’s company Miles Research, backed by its shareholders and supporters, is trialling an innovative atmospheric weather programming technology for the agricultural industry.


Miles Research has commenced the testing of a weather moderation system which, once established, will be capable of stabilising regional weather and optimising seasonal cropping through effectively 'smoothing' atmospheric behaviours.


One of David’s objectives is the greening of Earth’s vast untapped dry-land regions._

For further information please contact Miles Research - link.


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## Jack Aubrey (23 October 2019)

basilio said:


> Understand the Man from Miles Research
> 
> *Director*
> _David Miles is a motivated humanitarian who believes that humankind has been entrusted with a duty-of-care over all life on earth.
> ...




Miles Research is a guaranteed 10 bagger. $15 ps by Xmas. Get in quick before BOOM!  I have topped up at this price before the 708s get wind of this. Great management with heaps of experience changing the weather on many successful planets.  But DYOR, not investment advice.

sentiment: Buy   disclosure: Held

Oops, sorry, wrong stock forum! My bad.


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## qldfrog (23 October 2019)

any trend has its charlatans, GW just one extra trend to surf, I am semi seriously considering doing a business there based on the now widely accepted believe that co2 is the cause of CC


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## Jack Aubrey (23 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> any trend has its charlatans, GW just one extra trend to surf, I am semi seriously considering doing a business there based on the now widely accepted believe that co2 is the cause of CC



I haven't assessed my own carbon footprint but I'm pretty sure I've reduced it significantly over the past ten years by ditching gas appliances and heating when I moved to an apartment (where my electricity and water bills are also less than half what they were.) Next step is an electric car.

Maybe you could start a pet disposal service? Or even a trade-in service where people trade their big dog for a goldfish or guinea-pig.  Issue a CO2 credit and quietly dispose of the big animal - the horse racing industry may have some tips.

My brother (the feral) was an energy assessor for a while, advising people how to cut their bills (and CO2) by switching to energy efficient lighting, appliances etc.  Money for jam really.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> I haven't assessed my own carbon footprint but I'm pretty sure I've reduced it significantly over the past ten years by ditching gas appliances and heating when I moved to an apartment (where my electricity and water bills are also less than half what they were.) Next step is an electric car.
> 
> Maybe you could start a pet disposal service? Or even a trade-in service where people trade their big dog for a goldfish or guinea-pig.  Issue a CO2 credit and quietly dispose of the big animal - the horse racing industry may have some tips.
> 
> My brother (the feral) was an energy assessor for a while, advising people how to cut their bills (and CO2) by switching to energy efficient lighting, appliances etc.  Money for jam really.




You would think that the general slowing of the world's economies have reduced GG emissions, but the hysteria seems to continue. 

I'm surprised that the extinction people haven't officially joined forces with the vegan people and demanded that all the cows be shot and replaced with brussel sprouts.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 October 2019)

Some pointers here for anyone with a spare $73 Trillion or part thereof:

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...it-s-a-staggering-amount-20191025-p5344h.html


----------



## sptrawler (26 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Some pointers here for anyone with a spare $73 Trillion or part thereof:
> 
> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...it-s-a-staggering-amount-20191025-p5344h.html



I just think people can't get their head around it, they just think stamping their feet feet and holding their breath will make it happen.
I wonder if all the chanters would be happy, if ScoMo said, we are going to become completely carbon free by 2030, but there will be no welfare, electricity costs will triple and tax rates will double. I wonder how many would say put my name down for that.lol


----------



## qldfrog (26 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I just think people can't get their head around it, they just think stamping their feet feet and holding their breath will make it happen.
> I wonder if all the chanters would be happy, if ScoMo said, we are going to become completely carbon free by 2030, but there will be no welfare, electricity costs will triple and tax rates will double. I wonder how many would say put my name down for that.lol



A majority ,, not paying tax already, will agree and elect labour, tax the 49pc denier bastards and increase welfare to compensate for electricity cost
This is democracy


----------



## Jack Aubrey (26 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I just think people can't get their head around it, they just think stamping their feet feet and holding their breath will make it happen.
> I wonder if all the chanters would be happy, if ScoMo said, we are going to become completely carbon free by 2030, but there will be no welfare, electricity costs will triple and tax rates will double. I wonder how many would say put my name down for that.lol




The way this issue has become either/or is a real problem for Australia (and the US, where most of the more bizarre denialism comes from). We don't HAVE to decide whether it is happening or not, or whether human emissions are the primary or only cause or whether sea level rise is accelerating or not.  If the world economy is changing, we need to react. Lower emissions are only one part of the story and there is nothing that says Australia has to out in front on that issue. As an exporter of carbon-intensive fuels, we have to seriously look at what our customers are doing (and NOT accept someone else's interpretation of that.) China and India are playing several games at once - gradually decarbonising while also driving a strong import-replacement backup policy for fossil fuels (look at Mongolian coal and gas reserves). China is also oversupplied with power at the moment and growth is slowing as they move from heavy to lighter industry and their population growth slows.

Yes, the Greens and other extremes need to take a deep breath, stop grandstanding and blaming capitalism, but so too do the Sky News flunkies who seem to prefer political battle, kindergarten point-scoring, and feeding prejudice, to any form of rational analysis. There are so many win-wins in this space in terms of renewable technologies, battery metals, agricultural innovation, land management, and scientific services, that these divisive "policy" debates (fanned by Government and Opposition) are doing us a huge disservice.


----------



## SirRumpole (26 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Yes, the Greens and other extremes need to take a deep breath, stop grandstanding and blaming capitalism, but so too do the Sky News flunkies who seem to prefer political battle, kindergarten point-scoring, and feeding prejudice, to any form of rational analysis. There are so many win-wins in this space in terms of renewable technologies, battery metals, agricultural innovation, land management, and scientific services, that these divisive "policy" debates (fanned by Government and Opposition) are doing us a huge disservice.




I think our only hope is to elect a scientist as PM instead of failed ad men or ex union leaders.

But I'm afraid scientists are too smart to join any political party currently existing.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> There are so many win-wins in this space in terms of renewable technologies, battery metals, agricultural innovation, land management, and scientific services, that these divisive "policy" debates (fanned by Government and Opposition) are doing us a huge disservice.




These are the ones we ought to be focusing on here in my view.

That's not dismissing the science or politics but we're on a stock market forum after all so focusing on the business opportunities being presented seems the rational approach to me.

I'll also note that if someone can address the problem and make a profit, well then that's actually doing something to fix it which is more than all the politics etc has achieved thus far.

So does anyone have thoughts as to practical ways to invest in this sort of thing? Specific companies and so on?


----------



## basilio (26 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> These are the ones we ought to be focusing on here in my view.
> 
> That's not dismissing the science or politics but we're on a stock market forum after all so focusing on the business opportunities being presented seems the rational approach to me.
> 
> ...




There is a real challenge here Smurf which you have (rightly) banged on about ad nauseam.

*The simple  xxxxing problem is that our governments have collectively refused to recognise the reality and size of the problem to do with global warming and a host of associated issues.
*
On an economic basis renewable energy sources are now much cheaper than fossil fuels. Obviously storage and transmission issues have to be addressed but that is becoming much more doable.
*If  *there was a change in political will, there would be host of businesses that could expect to make a dollar. But for that to happen our governments would need to* decide *we were going in the wrong direction and also decide to intervene in the market place in terms of encouraging particular directions and discouraging others.
In terms of a big picture approach  something like The Green New Deal proposed by the Democrats is the sort of blueprint that would reinvigorate national economies.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (26 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> So does anyone have thoughts as to practical ways to invest in this sort of thing? Specific companies and so on?




Fair call.  EV and renewable battery tech will continue to evolve but Cobalt, Nickel and Lithium seem pretty well set to play a major role.  Ni stockpiles have taken a hammering recently (but it isn't entirely clear why or who is buying)

Amongst the MidCaps, I hold *Jervois Mining* (ASX:JRV) which has near-mine Co and Ni projects in the US, Uganda and NSW. Market Cap is $134.7M and current SP is $0.21. 

Of the (many) Small and Micro Cap explorers, I have *Rox Resources* (ASX:RXL) which is active in proving up both Gold and Ni resources in WA. Current MC is $32.1M and SP is 2.2 cents.  They seem to have enough money in bank for a decent drilling and assay program and now own the only processing plant in the (previously abandoned but now) reopened Youami gold mining area.

I haven't found a Lithium miner I like enough to invest in (after getting creamed with an early punt on AVZ) but the resource price is now forecast to increase as current battery plants in China reach full production and rapidly draw down global stockpiles.  I am leaning towards the S. American Lithium Brine hopefuls like *Galan Lithium* (ASX:GLN) - MC  $26.7M, SP $0.19 - rather than the Australian or African rock miners.  Like RXL, GLN seems to be very subject to price manipulation on a day-to-day basis.

None of the above are recommendations!  I am new to this and could be a total idiot.

I'd be very interested in others' comments on these sectors and on these and other companies in the filed of battery metals.


----------



## Value Collector (27 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> You would think that the general slowing of the world's economies have reduced GG emissions, but the hysteria seems to continue.




Slower growth is still growth.

For emissions to decline we would need to see shrinking of economies, where less products and services are being generated and consumed.

Also, if some one loses their job, and on Friday night spends $30 and on a 6 pack and a bbq at home, rather than going out to a restaurant, and spending $60 on 3 beers and a curry, the figures will show the economy shrank, but in reality the carbon footprint would be equal or higher.

Same story if every one sits at home watching their own TV with their heater going, rather than sitting together in a movie theater.


----------



## qldfrog (27 October 2019)

The west co2 emissions have been decreasing, replaced plus more by India and China
But true we are still emitting, not that i think it is of any importance except in the view of sustainability


----------



## explod (27 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> The west co2 emissions have been decreasing, replaced plus more by India and China
> But true we are still emitting, not that i think it is of any importance except in the view of sustainability



Not so, both India and China have cancelled very many proposed coal powered generating stations, they are also planting trees on a mammoth scale as well. In fact China have deployed a lot of their troops into the tree planting. We here and the US stand alone as way behind the rest of the world.  On India of course it is putting Adanie's plans in jeopardy also.


----------



## qldfrog (27 October 2019)

You really need to visit China


----------



## sptrawler (27 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Fair call.  EV and renewable battery tech will continue to evolve but Cobalt, Nickel and Lithium seem pretty well set to play a major role.  Ni stockpiles have taken a hammering recently (but it isn't entirely clear why or who is buying)
> 
> Amongst the MidCaps, I hold *Jervois Mining* (ASX:JRV) which has near-mine Co and Ni projects in the US, Uganda and NSW. Market Cap is $134.7M and current SP is $0.21.
> 
> ...



Very good ideas there Jack, generally speaking the nickel stockpile issue was brought about by the collapse in the nickel price, so most of the mines were shut and put on care and maintenance. A lot of them are currently in the process of re starting.
With lithium and cobalt, the problem is opposite, there is currently an oversupply of both materials. Galaxy is actually about to wind back production, as prices are falling.

https://thewest.com.au/business/min...miners-wait-for-china-recharge-ng-b881362005z

Everything has got a bit ahead of the demand curve, as it usually does, except for nickel which reserves are down to less than a months supply at current usage .


----------



## Country Lad (27 October 2019)

basilio said:


> *The simple  xxxxing problem is that our governments have collectively refused to recognise the reality and size of the problem to do with global warming and a host of associated issues.*




Having had a lot to do with both State and Federal govts and knowing how they operate, I would say that many of the deniers in government are likely very aware of the problems.  However, to say so publicly would mean they would need to take some action and that is just too hard for them. So, as politicians do, ignore the difficult issues and leave it for the next bunch.  And so it goes on as it always has.


----------



## explod (28 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> You really need to visit China



As I wander around China it certainly appears the opposite ATM, what is being done takes awhile.

They have realised the problem but we are doing nothing.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (28 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Very good ideas there Jack, generally speaking the nickel stockpile issue was brought about by the collapse in the nickel price, so most of the mines were shut and put on care and maintenance. A lot of them are currently in the process of re starting.
> With lithium and cobalt, the problem is opposite, there is currently an oversupply of both materials. Galaxy is actually about to wind back production, as prices are falling.
> 
> https://thewest.com.au/business/min...miners-wait-for-china-recharge-ng-b881362005z
> ...




Yes. How good is Lithium? I've been looking at the international majors, including *Galaxy*, and none have broken a very solid two year downtrend in SP except, possibly, *Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. (1772.HK) *which is a battery manufacturer and has one of the biggest operating brine extraction and processing plants in Argentina (and is obviously one that can make direct use of the stockpile). 

The other biggies, like *Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466.SZ)* and *Albermale Corp (ALB)* have not broken the trend but are showing (possible) signs of life at their lows.  These two jointly own Talison Lithium Pty Ltd., with the big Greenbushes Mine in Western Australia.  Albermale is also constructing a Lithium Hydroxide conversion plant in Perth.

There doesn't seem to be a good index for comparisons but I use  *GLOBAL LITHIUM ETF (LIT)* as a general guide.

In the absence of good data on metal sales, there's a lot of rumour around about the size and quality of the global stockpile and the future demand for high quality supply. With Chinese EV production predicted to have between 24% and 30% year-on-year growth (depending on your source), there does seem to be cause for cautious optimism, but I'm not about to leap into anything this year. The Lithium market is much more complex than most other metals.

As noted above, I'm new to this and probably off my tree.


----------



## basilio (28 October 2019)

For what it's worth I have a small interest in Talgas resources TLG.

The have a graphite mine that is producing nearly pure graphene and are developing a wide range of technologies in improving battery performance.

In theory I think they are underpriced.

They also have a large cobalt find.
http://www.talgaresources.com/IRM/content/default.aspx


----------



## sptrawler (28 October 2019)

explod said:


> As I wander around China it certainly appears the opposite ATM, what is being done takes awhile.
> 
> They have realised the problem but we are doing nothing.



Actually plod, that isn't exactly right, we are putting in renewables faster per capita, than any other Country.
There are currently 133GW of renewables in the pipeline to be installed, which is over 2 times the grid on the East coast, it can't be installed because we can't use it as smurf has said heaps of times, they are currently working on hydrogen plant design and storage/transport solutions and pumped storage/ battery storage for domestic generation.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsev...coal-fired-generation-earlier-than-predicted/
From the article:
_A total of 39.4 GW of capacity has been added year-to-date. Utility solar accounts for 54% of this, whereas utility storage and utility wind account for 25% and 21%, respectively _.

There are currently two massive H2 plants proposed for W.A.
I guess that doesn't all fit in with the media's ridiculous agenda, but it does facilitate the chanters going on endlessly about something they have very little grasp of, but that is usually the way of bored people looking for a cause to go on about if it wasn't this it would be something else.
Now you will be able to put people straight, on what a great job we are doing, rather than running our valiant efforts down maybe drop the press a line.
Anyway, hope you are having a great holiday in China and don't worry Australia is in safe hands, no brain farts happening nor any pandering to lobby groups.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Anyway, hope you are having a great holiday in China and don't worry Australia is in safe hands, no brain farts happening nor any pandering to lobby groups.




Just a slow decline into mediocrity and irrelevance.

Lobby groups like the miners and farmers you mean ?


----------



## sptrawler (28 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Just a slow decline into mediocrity and irrelevance.



Whe are discussing renewables not our education system.
Or batt suppliers, solar installers, telecommunication companies etc.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Whe are discussing renewables not our education system.
> Or batt suppliers, solar installers, telecommunication companies etc.




No, you made a political statement and I made one in return. 

By a lot of economic measures this country is stuffed as has been said before, but I'll leave that for another thread.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (28 October 2019)

basilio said:


> For what it's worth I have a small interest in Talgas resources TLG.
> 
> The have a graphite mine that is producing nearly pure graphene and are developing a wide range of technologies in improving battery performance.
> 
> ...




I know nothing about graphite/graphene but the TLG chart looks Very Interesting!  Thanks for the heads up.


----------



## sptrawler (28 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> No, you made a political statement and I made one in return.
> 
> By a lot of economic measures this country is stuffed as has been said before, but I'll leave that for another thread.



Everyone is making this a political statement, that is what drives me mad, as smurf has said it is a technical issue and not a simple one that any Government could fix.
All that would happen if the Government got involved, would be some industry section would find a way of milking whatever was put in place, anyway it seems to be going o.k amazingly IMO.
Anyway I will but out, just thought I would give people the heads up, on how much is actually happening on the renewable front, pretty unbelievable how quickly it is happening IMO.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (29 October 2019)

While looking into EV/battery metals, *Vanadium* is often mentioned as a likely contender.  86% of the global Vanadium supply is currently going into various steel products (like rebar). Only 5% is being used to produce *Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries* which are emerging as a solution to large scale energy storage.  There are serious environmental issues associated with Vanadium production and China is closing a number of existing facilities in an effort to clean things up. 
Three small cap pure Vanadium Australian companies I have on my watchlist are:

ASX:TMT   MC 11.81M   Technology Metals Australia Ltd
ASX:TNG   MC 95.6M    TNG Limited
ASX:AVL    MC  36.7M    Australian Vanadium Ltd

They are all at longterm lows and don't seem to be showing  any TA signs of reversals.

The big problem I see with Vanadium as an investment is that it is a plentiful mineral by-product of other mining operations and metals processing (particularly iron ore).  This means (perhaps only in my mind) that there are readily available supplies lying around in spoil and slag heaps under the ownership of major miners and producers.  If the battery market seriously expanded, those supplies could be liberated fairly easily.  Smaller, pure Vanadium plays MAY be more nimble in increasing supply and have (some) existing offtakes, but their upside would eventually be limited as these accessible "reserves" were brought online and the majors exploited a growing market.

Just thoughts.


----------



## Sdajii (29 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> But you have to balance that out with how long goods last these days. TV repairmen were needed because vacuum tubes used to fail regularly, these days tv sets last for 15 years or more without problems, but when they do go there are much better models out there so the old ones get ditched.
> 
> Swings and roundabouts...




How many people do you know today who are using a 15 year old television??? 15 years ago most people still had CRT tellies. You can't say today's televisions last 15 years when they haven't been around for 15 years. About 10-12 years ago when everyone was dumping their old CRTs and replacing them with LCDs and plasmas they were buying early models, most of which have now already been replaced. 

If you actually want to look at 15 years ago, we were looking at the very early generation plasmas. The early generation plasmas which were the envy of their proud owners' friends around 15 years ago died very very quickly and people were upset about them being basically impossible to repair.

It's probably true that the tellies people are buying today will be obsolete within around 5 years and replaced whether they die or not, which brings us back to the issue of the throwaway society.


----------



## SirRumpole (29 October 2019)

Sdajii said:


> How many people do you know today who are using a 15 year old television???




Me. 

It's an LED one that fingers crossed keeps working even though it's basically left on all the time.

OK it's a bit outdated I don't think it will take 4k, but I might be wrong. Anyway it does what I want it to do and I'm not about to throw it away.


----------



## sptrawler (29 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Me.
> 
> It's an LED one that fingers crossed keeps working even though it's basically left on all the time.
> 
> OK it's a bit outdated I don't think it will take 4k, but I might be wrong. Anyway it does what I want it to do and I'm not about to throw it away.



I've still got a Panasonic 50" plasma in the holiday unit, takes two to carry it, so if someone wants to steal it they deserve it. 
The picture did go all red a few years ago, so I took the back off cleaned it out, disconnected all the board connector and cleaned them that was about 5 years ago.
When it dies, I will go upto Aldi 65" $699, can't complain at that.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (29 October 2019)

Seems Labor has worked out that renewables may be an opportunity for Australia (der)

Anthony Albanese today highlighted

"..... potential export opportunities of lithium, rare earths, iron and titanium as the “key ingredients” of the renewables revolution, saying the minerals would be in high demand in a low-carbon future."

How iron got a mention and not nickel seems a bit odd to me, but at least they aren't just talking about coal.

Apparently. he also talked about fast recharge technology and I've seen tweets from some Labor members highlighting hydrogen tech as part of the mix. 

The speech also had a bit to say about education, training and immigration (work visas).

Thankfully, this wasn't an election speech. Otherwise the Government would feel compelled to oppose everything in it and scare the tradies. Of course they might do that anyway but, hopefully, they will realise that we are not all Quiet (or near dead) Australians and have a stake in the future direction (and diversity) of the economy.


----------



## SirRumpole (29 October 2019)

Yes , good to see Labor hitting the gov't where it hurts, their lack of vision and "nation building" policies.

Three years seems a long time, but with only a one seat majority, all it takes is a couple of heart attacks or the need to spend time with family in marginal seats and there could be a change of government.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (1 November 2019)

Maybe we've got this energy thing all wrong.  While we are chasing new and sophisticated forms of power, we have been ignoring the perpetual motion machines all around us.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (15 November 2019)

This is small beer in the global investment context but possibly an indicator of where things are going.

https://www.ft.com/content/076e9978-06c2-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca


----------



## Jack Aubrey (18 November 2019)

Alan Kohler, that well-known inner-city leftist, on steel and concrete

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...e/news-story/cde50d360ba6d3cd99a1d974a090f7be


----------



## SirRumpole (18 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Alan Kohler, that well-known inner-city leftist, on steel and concrete
> 
> https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...e/news-story/cde50d360ba6d3cd99a1d974a090f7be




Pay-walled unfortunately, but Alan Kohler will be free tonight at 7:30 and for the rest of the week on the socialist inner city Left ABC.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (18 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Pay-walled unfortunately, but Alan Kohler will be free tonight at 7:30 and for the rest of the week on the socialist inner city Left ABC.




Strange - I got it OK and I have not given a Murdoch company any money for at least 10 years!


----------



## SirRumpole (18 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Strange - I got it OK and I have not given a Murdoch company any money for at least 10 years!




Can you copy it to here or give a summary ?


----------



## Jack Aubrey (18 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Can you copy it to here or give a summary ?




Went back and I'm blocked! Damn those Murdochs!

Anyway, Kohler argues that energy and transport sector emission reductions are already on-track to very low levels by 2050 due to new technologies and markets.  Steel-making and concrete emissions however make up 10% of national (and global) emissions and are much harder to reduce.  He says that Hydrogen is a promising reducing agent in steel fabrication (Thyssenkrupp has a pilot plant). There are no known ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in cement production but alternatives to cement are being researched. Kohler thinks this would be good area for Australia (CSIRO) to lead on, with substantial downstream industry payoffs.

Being in the Australian, the comments section of the article is full of denier BS, predictions of economic doom if Australia was to do anything, and the usual conspiracy theories, but the article itself seems quite positive and well-reasoned.


----------



## SirRumpole (18 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Went back and I'm blocked! Damn those Murdochs!
> 
> Anyway, Kohler argues that energy and transport sector emission reductions are already on-track to very low levels by 2050 due to new technologies and markets.  Steel-making and concrete emissions however make up 10% of national (and global) emissions and are much harder to reduce.  He says that Hydrogen is a promising reducing agent in steel fabrication (Thyssenkrupp has a pilot plant). There are no known ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in cement production but alternatives to cement are being researched. Kohler thinks this would be good area for Australia (CSIRO) to lead on, with substantial downstream industry payoffs.
> 
> Being in the Australian, the comments section of the article is full of denier BS, predictions of economic doom if Australia was to do anything, and the usual conspiracy theories, but the article itself seems quite positive and well-reasoned.




Thanks for that.

Alan Kohler always seems to have a lot of commonsense and business nous, it will be interesting to hear what he has to say on 7:30 this week.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (18 November 2019)

A good summary article on Hydrogen (all sources) and potential investment implications for Australia:
https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/features/hydrogen-down-under/


----------



## qldfrog (18 November 2019)

I do not really  know why, I can not believe in hydrogen, maybe because it is too similar to the current oil scheme: big manufacturing/distribution networks, centralised vs electricity which can be pretty self sufficient now with solar/batteries.I was also maybe tainted by my chemistry lessons where hydrogen was seen as a nasty gas always ready to escape, destroying metal containers and with somewhat less intrinsic energy than other hydrocarbons..from memory, do not trust me on that one
But if it can work, like the beauty of water as exhaust
why not just use hydrogen cells as battery? in a cycle..I am sure chemists are working hard to achieve that if they can..


----------



## Jack Aubrey (19 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> I do not really  know why, I can not believe in hydrogen, maybe because it is too similar to the current oil scheme: big manufacturing/distribution networks, centralised vs electricity which can be pretty self sufficient now with solar/batteries.I was also maybe tainted by my chemistry lessons where hydrogen was seen as a nasty gas always ready to escape, destroying metal containers and with somewhat less intrinsic energy than other hydrocarbons..from memory, do not trust me on that one
> But if it can work, like the beauty of water as exhaust
> why not just use hydrogen cells as battery? in a cycle..I am sure chemists are working hard to achieve that if they can..



I certainly see your point about centralised/corporate control of the supply chain.  It really does seem too neat that companies controlling one resources (oil and gas) could easily slip into controlling another and continue happily on their market-manipulating way.  Strangely perhaps (as I am now a card carrying inner-city elitist/leftist/greenie) I think it is a good thing that current "bad" companies transform themselves. I also think it is good that there are many options being pursued in the market, including nuclear, stored hydro, different battery technologies and hydrogen.  Even carbon capture storage gets a tick from me.  

From an investment point of view, it is REALLY HARD to see where this might go - but that's what makes it an interesting discussion.  Government policy (and lack of policy) makes it even harder.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (6 December 2019)

This is interesting and relevant in its own right but also contains a summary of where the other major banks (apart from Westpac, which is busy with Other Things right now) are at with their fossil fuel risk assessments.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...oal-projects-leaked-document-reveals/11764898

I am sure this will provoke even more tsk tsking from the Commonwealth Government.

After the smoke has settled from the current fires and drought (sorry), I am pretty sure we'll see some risk re-rating of agriculture in more marginal areas too.

The other big news this week about the Russia-China gas pipeline will also, IMO, eventually have a huge impact on Australia's coal and gas sectors. 

(Disclaimer: I hold a small parcel of ASX:EXR which is exploring for gas in Mongolia with the aim of supplying the domestic market there and also piping gas to China as a replacement for coal in energy production)


----------



## qldfrog (6 December 2019)

For what it is worth, while in China, it was clear Russia was building up as their new resource partner, and with Russia lead, the resources mines and fields are not sold to China company, just using them as customers.win win
With CC, vast areas of resources are opening in the North and both Russia and China are leveraging these to deliver cleaner resources..no one there cares about co2 but they care about the smog and air pollution, and the new gas and oil fields of Siberia
are the key.


----------



## Knobby22 (6 December 2019)

qldfrog said:


> For what it is worth, while in China, it was clear Russia was building up as their new resource partner, and with Russia lead, the resources mines and fields are not sold to China company, just using them as customers.win win
> With CC, vast areas of resources are opening in the North and both Russia and China are leveraging these to deliver cleaner resources..no one there cares about co2 but they care about the smog and air pollution, and the new gas and oil fields of Siberia
> are the key.




Also eventually Antarctica will open up.
The question was asked what minerals would be expected there. The answer was look to Australia. They are geologically similar.
You can see why the Chinese are setting up so many bases (5) in the Australian Antarctic Territory which they don't recognise. Australia only has 3. They are always thinking long term.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (6 December 2019)

Coal exit policies have now been announced by 17 of the world’s biggest insurers

As we have discussed before, this is fast becoming a stranded assets issue - a game of pass the parcel where small investors and taxpayers are targeted as the "bigger fools".  I am confident that Ms Rinehart and Mr Adani will not be picking up the tab for their failed investments.

Knobby22 said:
_Also eventually Antarctica will open up.
The question was asked what minerals would be expected there. The answer was look to Australia. They are geologically similar.
You can see why the Chinese are setting up so many bases (5) in the Australian Antarctic Territory which they don't recognise. Australia only has 3. They are always thinking long term._

I really hope that is a VERY long term prospect.  I worked for the Australian Antarctic Division many years ago and the risks of even normal materials handling and personnel safety there are enormous.

But I do agree that we underestimate the Chinese capacity for long term strategy.


----------



## qldfrog (6 December 2019)

I do not underestimate them or the Russians as they both work for what they see is the best interest of their country, a bit like the US used to up to the 60ies


----------



## orr (7 December 2019)

I've only gone back a couple of pg's in this thread. so please excuse how much of this is repeated;
At BHP McKensie's out Henry's in but the words  'mobilisation' are common to each...
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...limate-push-vows-new-ceo-20191114-p53anh.html
What this is singing to me? At a point a shift will take place, driven by commercail interest. How Big that shift will be?... At that point knowing the modus operandi of Milo Minderbinder will do you know harm... But only Orr made it to Sweden.


----------



## sptrawler (7 December 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Thanks for that.
> 
> Alan Kohler always seems to have a lot of commonsense and business nous, it will be interesting to hear what he has to say on 7:30 this week.



Jeez Rumpy, how long have I been banging on about hydrogen, it well could be the saviour of Australia's living standard.
Because nothing else stands out, as saving us from the abyss, to a third World Country.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 December 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Also eventually Antarctica will open up.




I'll simply say that I'm glad I'm not the only one to have realized this.

I won't try and work out the timing beyond speculating that most children born today will live to see it happen.


----------



## orr (8 December 2019)

Thanks for the Appreciation Mr Jack.
Just to be clear, because I can't know your broader experience.
When the term '_mobilisation_' is used in the way the above CEO's are using the term, there are a number of important bits of background. 
First to be noted is they, the CEO's, preface with '_like_'. A pretty  plastic term if ever there was.
But an understanding of the economic controls put in place to conduct the mobilisation associated with WW2 is one that would have the Capitalist cheer squad with a little more room for circumspection.

John K Galbraith, writing, noting his first hand involvement, on WW2 US economic control is highly recommended as a reference point.

The International resolve to treat the AGW threat as an Emergency is only going to grow.

_Maräng._


----------



## basilio (10 December 2019)

Something to think about when investing in companies.

*ASIC investigating large companies' climate change risk management*
By political reporter Jackson Gothe-Snape
Posted about an hour ago

 * Photo:* The corporate watchdog has advised company directors to be proactive about climate change risk. (ABC News: Sarah Gerathy) 
*Related Story:* Did he say it or not? Defence Chief's climate speech warns of 'serious ramifications' of climate change
*Related Story:* Climate change is accelerating, with alarming new data revealing the extent sea levels are rising
The corporate watchdog has launched a new surveillance program to ensure Australia's biggest companies are dealing with the risks of climate change.

*Key points:*

ASIC has commenced surveillance of large listed companies to investigate how they are addressing climate change risk
Former banking royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne warned last month that company directors faced court if they were negligent about climate change risks
Directors of government enterprises like the Murray-Darling Basin Authority face the same obligations to address risk

*The move follows comments by former High Court judge and royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne that directors of companies could end up in court if they do not properly deal with the risk.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-10/asic-launches-climate-surveillance-of-big-companies/11786070*


----------



## sptrawler (10 December 2019)

basilio said:


> Something to think about when investing in companies.
> 
> *ASIC investigating large companies' climate change risk management*
> By political reporter Jackson Gothe-Snape
> ...



What will be the outcome of that? Should Banks lend money to people who want to buy a home near water? Should Banks lend money to people who want to buy a farm in drought affected areas? Should Banks underwrite insurance policies for properties in aforesaid areas?
If they do will they be held responsible for negligent behaviour?
So in summation the Banks shouldn't lend or insure those properties near the coast, well that is 90% of properties, FFS why post up this shyte?
What will you be pasting up, if the Banks say we can't lend for housing near the coast, only for those over the blue mountains?
Jeez i'm going to sit under a pyramid for a while.


----------



## qldfrog (11 December 2019)

Actually, with the current focus on drought and fire, it is now easier to buy forested good acreage for cheap.i know as i am unlucky enough to try to sell one now.
you then will have 14 to 18y until the next drought cycle.
Just ensure it is properly managed fire protection wise as i do not expect much change in fire management once the crisis will be over and forgotten in NP and state forests


----------



## Jack Aubrey (11 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> What will be the outcome of that? Should Banks lend money to people who want to buy a home near water? Should Banks lend money to people who want to buy a farm in drought affected areas? Should Banks underwrite insurance policies for properties in aforesaid areas?
> If they do will they be held responsible for negligent behaviour?
> So in summation the Banks shouldn't lend or insure those properties near the coast, well that is 90% of properties, FFS why post up this shyte?
> What will you be pasting up, if the Banks say we can't lend for housing near the coast, only for those over the blue mountains?
> Jeez i'm going to sit under a pyramid for a while.




Why exaggerate? Banks and insurance companies already factor in all types of risk and you can't build a house anywhere you want. Local and State governments determine planning anyway.  ASIC is simply firing a small shot over the bows of medium sized companies (I believe this thread already contains links to what the majors are already doing) and (probably) superannuation trustees who have been slow to react.  If the best scientific advice available says to eg. avoid building less that 3M above current high water levels, why would a financier or insurer take on that risk for their own shareholders?  If that same advice says productivity (and therefore profitability) of some current cropping land will fall, do you want companies that you have shares in making large investments in that area?

Exaggerated claims of the predicted rate and level of sea level rise don't help anyone.  Nor does saying we won't have "normal" rain fall ever again.  (I don't think saying that "this is the new normal" is particularly true either, but it may shake a few more people out of total denial.)

There is a asset price and risk re-rate underway whether you believe climate change is real or not.  The only questions relate to who bears the losses and whether there are compensating gains in other sectors or places.  Hence this thread.


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## sptrawler (11 December 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Why exaggerate? Banks and insurance companies already factor in all types of risk and you can't build a house anywhere you want. Local and State governments determine planning anyway.  ASIC is simply firing a small shot over the bows of medium sized companies (I believe this thread already contains links to what the majors are already doing) and (probably) superannuation trustees who have been slow to react.  If the best scientific advice available says to eg. avoid building less that 3M above current high water levels, why would a financier or insurer take on that risk for their own shareholders?  If that same advice says productivity (and therefore profitability) of some current cropping land will fall, do you want companies that you have shares in making large investments in that area?
> 
> Exaggerated claims of the predicted rate and level of sea level rise don't help anyone.  Nor does saying we won't have "normal" rain fall ever again.  (I don't think saying that "this is the new normal" is particularly true either, but it may shake a few more people out of total denial.)
> 
> There is a asset price and risk re-rate underway whether you believe climate change is real or not.  The only questions relate to who bears the losses and whether there are compensating gains in other sectors or places.  Hence this thread.



My attitude completely.


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## qldfrog (11 December 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Why exaggerate? Banks and insurance companies already factor in all types of risk and you can't build a house anywhere you want. Local and State governments determine planning anyway.  ASIC is simply firing a small shot over the bows of medium sized companies (I believe this thread already contains links to what the majors are already doing) and (probably) superannuation trustees who have been slow to react.  If the best scientific advice available says to eg. avoid building less that 3M above current high water levels, why would a financier or insurer take on that risk for their own shareholders?  If that same advice says productivity (and therefore profitability) of some current cropping land will fall, do you want companies that you have shares in making large investments in that area?
> 
> Exaggerated claims of the predicted rate and level of sea level rise don't help anyone.  Nor does saying we won't have "normal" rain fall ever again.  (I don't think saying that "this is the new normal" is particularly true either, but it may shake a few more people out of total denial.)
> 
> There is a asset price and risk re-rate underway whether you believe climate change is real or not.  The only questions relate to who bears the losses and whether there are compensating gains in other sectors or places.  Hence this thread.



Isn't it great to see some proper reasoning and reasonable discussion!
Kudos @Jack Aubrey 
Agree on the above
As i like to remind often Stradbroke island was split in two by a cyclone in the late 1800.no climate change needed.just imagine the same happening this year on the Gold coast marinas.
We will have 10 to 20 times the number of houses destroyed by the fires.
This is known history.yet buildings were autorised, still are and we are well past the 1 in a hundred year.
That is why i avoid insurance company shares.even the known is not properly analysed, so why even guessing for what may or may not happen.
I think i will soon try to follow aaoc? The open range beef company.
They should be smashed with the drought, the monthly ABC or vegan scandal does not help either.
They were a dud in the past, but  anyone following with this context in mind?
.


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## SirRumpole (21 December 2019)

The impact of higher insurance premiums.

Obviously a lot of people are cancelling their insurance because it's no longer affordable.

The pricing policies of the insurance companies are driving themselves out of business.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...ninsured-homes-in-northern-australia/11819814


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## basilio (7 January 2020)

There could/will be some very far reaching consequences of the current bushfire catastrophe . Off the top of my head these come to mind.
1) Risk of many small towns or whole areas becoming unviable because  new bushfire regulations  prevent rebuilding
2) Similar risk as above but becasue insurance companies refuse to insure properties in many areas or have an impossible premium
3) Very serious consequences for tourism and thus viability of a number of areas
4) Big increase in infrastructure  replacement.  Well worth looking at building industry investments
5) Challenges to many agricultural industries. Dairying will be hard hit. Knock on effects for producers of all dairy products
6) Very big hits on insurance premiums across the board. Thousands of cars lost as well as houses and general property. Still don't know how the rest of the fire season will pan out.
7) A long and debilitating recovery period. It won't be as "simple" as cleaning out the mud from a flooded house and letting it dry out. Total loss.

In the longer term Governments may be forced to face the uncomfortable realities of ongoing climate change and realise many places in Australia won't be viable.  Challenging thought.
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/r...ow-climate-change-damages-australias-economy/


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## sptrawler (7 January 2020)

basilio said:


> There could/will be some very far reaching consequences of the current bushfire catastrophe . Off the top of my head these come to mind.
> 1) Risk of many small towns or whole areas becoming unviable because  new bushfire regulations  prevent rebuilding
> 2) Similar risk as above but becasue insurance companies refuse to insure properties in many areas or have an impossible premium
> 3) Very serious consequences for tourism and thus viability of a number of areas
> ...




That all could be very true Bas, you may find small hamlets don't get rebuilt, as the infrastructure may not be worth the cost. 
People may have to re locate to the closest major Town, there are a lot of places around Australia that no longer exist, first the bank goes, then the post office, followed by the garage and the school.
Then the slow demise follows, these fires may accelerate it, for some small communities.


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## SirRumpole (7 January 2020)

basilio said:


> There could/will be some very far reaching consequences of the current bushfire catastrophe . Off the top of my head these come to mind.
> 1) Risk of many small towns or whole areas becoming unviable because  new bushfire regulations  prevent rebuilding
> 2) Similar risk as above but becasue insurance companies refuse to insure properties in many areas or have an impossible premium
> 3) Very serious consequences for tourism and thus viability of a number of areas
> ...




I'm afraid you are right.

It's not just fires obviously, but floods and drought that make certain locations unviable.

Then there will be the obvious political costs about "killing communities" when in reality it's like putting down a dying animal and just as hard for the residents to accept.

Politicians can either do more to fire/flood/drought proof these areas, because in good times they would be viable ( but it would cost billions), or move the communities elsewhere .


It's a tough choice, especially for governments obsessed with surpluses.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 January 2020)

Sadly, strangely, curiously, disasters are good for GDP


> GDP is a measure of the nation’s current production of goods and services. GDP is not directly affected by the loss of property, residential and nonresidential structures, or vehicles and equipment that were produced previously.



- which is probably as good a reason as any that 'old' economic concepts need revision


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## qldfrog (7 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Sadly, strangely, curiously, disasters are good for GDP
> 
> - which is probably as good a reason as any that 'old' economic concepts need revision



Yes Dona,  I hinted on this at the start of the fire: a great stimulus ,sadly  the best GDP growth you can have is a population of dying patients  in intensive care burning their life savings before being dispatched in a grandiose sent off..
GDP is an aberration, it also is not representative of currencies so I could live like a king on $3k USD a month in China, try this here..


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## SirRumpole (7 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Sadly, strangely, curiously, disasters are good for GDP
> 
> - which is probably as good a reason as any that 'old' economic concepts need revision




WW2 was certainly good for Germany and Japan in the long term.


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## basilio (8 January 2020)

There is more analysis coming out on the costs of the current bushfires to the economy.

* Ross Garnaut's climate change prediction is coming true and experts warn it's going to cost the nation billions *
By business reporter Nassim Khadem
Posted about 7 hours ago | Updated 46 minutes ago

Conservative estimates put the final cost of the current Australian bushfires well into billions of dollars, while some analysts say they could set back the economy $20 billion in lost output.

_ "If you ignore the science when you build a bridge, the bridge falls down."_


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## Jack Aubrey (8 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> WW2 was certainly good for Germany and Japan in the long term.



We need to remember that European and Japanese recovery after WW2 was a deliberate and long-term project by the "victors".  There was a short-term, but massive, transfer of resources to the poorer economies to kick start new industries and infrastructure.  In the case of Japan, there was also a significant transfer of technology. It stands in contrast to the outcome of WW1, where the victors deliberately punished and tried to hold back the economies of the losers, resulting in, firstly, a huge disparity in economic growth between the "winners" and "loser" economies (the 1920s), then a global economic collapse (1930s) and then a resumption of hostilities.


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## SirRumpole (8 January 2020)

Jack Aubrey said:


> We need to remember that European and Japanese recovery after WW2 was a deliberate and long-term project by the "victors".  There was a short-term, but massive, transfer of resources to the poorer economies to kick start new industries and infrastructure.  In the case of Japan, there was also a significant transfer of technology. It stands in contrast to the outcome of WW1, where the victors deliberately punished and tried to hold back the economies of the losers, resulting in, firstly, a huge disparity in economic growth between the "winners" and "loser" economies (the 1920s), then a global economic collapse (1930s) and then a resumption of hostilities.




Yes, we have seen the benefits of the Marshall Plan in 70 years of peace and economic progress in Europe and Japan.

One of the US's best efforts in international relations, I wonder if Trump has heard of it ?


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## qldfrog (8 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes, we have seen the benefits of the Marshall Plan in 70 years of peace and economic progress in Europe and Japan.
> 
> One of the US's best efforts in international relations, I wonder if Trump has heard of it ?



Do you think China will give us loans and send experts after the fire?


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## basilio (8 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Do you think China will give us loans and send experts after the fire?




Not quite the same as 6 years of total war, the devastation of  20  countries and umpteen millions of people killed and displaced.
Proportion ?


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## basilio (8 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes, we have seen the benefits of the Marshall Plan in 70 years of peace and economic progress in Europe and Japan.
> 
> One of the US's best efforts in international relations, I wonder if Trump has heard of it ?




Also worth remembering this was a very big boost to US industry at the time and was an essential part of stabilising a Europe that was very open to  communist influence/pressure.
https://www.marshallfoundation.org/marshall/the-marshall-plan/history-marshall-plan/


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## SirRumpole (8 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Do you think China will give us loans and send experts after the fire?




Sure they will !!!


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## Jack Aubrey (8 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Do you think China will give us loans and send experts after the fire?



I understand that they have a belt and a road they'd like to sell us.

My point (if I had one; I can't remember) is that global cooperation, including "aid", can benefit both the "receiver" and the "giver".  If there is to be a successful global effort on AGW, it will have to involve funding and tech transfer from the current developed to the developing countries.  I can certainly see Europe and Japan, as current developed countries,  being ready to participate in that effort.  If they start subsidising non-fossil fuel power stations and transport in China and India, we could see a change very quickly.


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## qldfrog (8 January 2020)

Jack Aubrey said:


> I understand that they have a belt and a road they'd like to sell us.
> 
> My point (if I had one; I can't remember) is that global cooperation, including "aid", can benefit both the "receiver" and the "giver".  If there is to be a successful global effort on AGW, it will have to involve funding and tech transfer from the current developed to the developing countries.  I can certainly see Europe and Japan, as current developed countries,  being ready to participate in that effort.  If they start subsidising non-fossil fuel power stations and transport in China and India, we could see a change very quickly.



Europe developed vs China developing is a fairy tale by people whose vision of the world is a 30y old Contiki tour trip
Most of Europe is now under undevelopment.gdp figures are a wrong index....as for Japan helping China.... ROL
But i agree about mutual benefit of economic help...as per belt road chinese program


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## Dona Ferentes (8 January 2020)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Steel-making and concrete emissions however make up 10% of national (and global) emissions and are much harder to reduce.  ... There are no known ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in *cement production* but alternatives to cement are being researched....



check Calix CXL 


> ..Since 1990, the largest multinational cement companies have reduced their CO2 emissions by 20-25 percent. They have done so by improving energy efficiency and using waste-derived fuels and raw materials, as well as replacing the energy-intensive clinker by other constituents in cement or concrete.
> 
> But in order to reach the EU’s emissions reductions targets by 2050, carbon capture technologies need to be applied to the majority of cement plants, and Calix’s technology is uniquely placed to support the industry to achieve these targets in a timely, effective and efficient manner....






> The LEILAC Project (www.project-leilac.eu) is a Eu21m (~A$34m) project (Eu12m is funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program) piloting Calix technology in CO2 abatement for the lime and cement industries.
> 
> As part of this project, Calix is leading a consortium of some of the world's largest cement and lime companies, as well as leading European universities and research institutes.



LEILAC (Low Emissions Intensity Lime And Cement) technology is based upon Calix’s patented direct separation “calcination” (kiln)


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## Dona Ferentes (8 January 2020)

Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics..... *Investment Implications of Climate Change*: (and this is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused), it probably isn't important to dwell on the mechanics or veracity of climate change; just enough to accept that if this is the consensus view, it would be silly to fight it. I mean, if decisions and quotas are made by the political process, and they will, it would be sensible to get on board.

That said, first of all 







> "If you ignore the science when you build a bridge, the bridge falls down."



 I would have thought it's more of an engineering challenge!!

So, engineering. No going back. Nearly eight billion people on earth (twice as many when I was born). They (we) all want water, food, safety, a future. And after experiencing hot showers and soft pillows and adequate food and all that, there's no desire to go back. And there are billions wanting a fridge, a car, a job, (insert aspiration). We have built a complex, interdependent (post modern? post industrial?) world and, other than doing a Musk, this is all we have. People aren't going to give up electricity, individual mobility, consumerism. But there will be regulation and mandated outcomes

As a believer in the efficient allocation of capital to achieve outcomes, I quite like the Schumpeterian view of _Creative Destruction_.  So, and I use a barbell approach to investing, I drew up a list of _*minnows *_(that's where Risk v Reward is at the most dynamic ) on the ASX, to investigate and possibly invest in.

First up, the instinctive reaction to *Buy Lithium (or Cobalt, or Graphite*) has not produced many winners. So, here goes, I’ll list a few companies that have ‘green credentials” and let you look into them further.

*• Energy One Limited (ASX:EOL*) is a leading independent global supplier of Energy Trading and Risk Management (ETRM) Systems
• More than 10 years’ experience providing software solutions to high quality customers trading in complex and fast-paced wholesale energy markets
• The Company offers SaaS and automation solutions for the trading and scheduling of physical and contract bulk energy and derivatives (including electricity, gas, liquid commodities and environmental and carbon trading)
• 50% of Australia’s bulk energy is traded using EOL systems. With offices in Australia and UK, the company has ~200 installations in 11 countries, many with blue-chip international energy companies.

“Looking forward, the domestic energy market will be undergoing significant change in the next 2-3 years, as regulatory adjustments to market structure (such as Australia’s cutting edge adoption of the 5-minute market) become reality. This requires front ended investment (which has already commenced) to allow customers to meet these but will create future opportunities as customers with legacy or less flexible product suites struggle to comply. The opportunities in Europe will expand as our sales focus in the UK and exploration of European niches flow through to revenues, and existing UK customers are exposed to the capability of products like Energy Flow...”

*Water availability and quality* is also looming as a 21st century challenge. There are a number of small companies around (remember Memtec?) that are active.

*Fluence Corporation (FLC)  *was originally ASX listed but an Israeli company Emefcy Group (EMC) which had developed a Membrane Aerated Biofilm Reactor (MABR) product that enables wastewater to be reused for specific purposes such as crop irrigation. Emefcy had designed its technology for remote areas, invariably in poor parts of the world that suffer from severe water shortages. FLC is now a provider of decentralized water, wastewater treatment and reuse solutions for both municipal and industrial applications across the world. These are small-scale pre-engineered modular solutions that can be installed in weeks, not years.  Market cap about $250mill, it is still cash flow negative (likely EBITDA positive by start of 2020) and has just had a capital raisIng exercise to fund expansion. As well as China and Africa, it is expanding into mining services, especially lithium brine.

*Phoslock Environmental Technologies Limited (PET)*, formerly Phoslock Water Solutions Limited, provides water technologies and solutions for lake restoration, reservoir managements and water quality management in storm water ponds. Like many “environment” stocks, there has been much interest. From 40c mid-year, it went to $1.50 by July and has since retreated to below $1.00. Market cap is now close to $500million. While sales are increasing, cashflow is still not positive. Newsflow has been constant, with accreditation and major projects in China, restoration in the Florida Everglades, contracts in Europe and Brazil. Most large projects are multi-stage; success in current stage should lead to significant work in the next stage.

*De.mem Limited (DEM)* is a Singaporean-Australian de-centralised water and waste water treatment business that designs, builds, owns and operates water and waste water treatment systems for its clients. Established in 2013, the company has offices in Singapore, Perth (Australia), Brisbane (Australia), and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam). Market cap is small at under $50million, there are demands on cash flow which is negative, with Placements and other raisings occurring.

DEM has been working with mining companies, and Building Infrastructure projects. It has telegraphed moving into Food & Beverage and see it as a growth sector
- The industry appears fragmented and in the stage of consolidation, where comprehensive solutions can be developed. However, most systems are small-scale, usually under $2million.
- Some 60% of sales are of the equipment, then 30% in BOT with maintenance. Consumables make up the rest …acquisitions should see this grow

- A Tasmanian company PumpTech has recently been acquired as has a German company, Geutec, which develops, manufactures and sells chemicals-based products and solutions for industrial waste water treatment to customers across Germany and Europe. Geutec’s range of water treatment chemicals including coagulants, cleaners and antiscalants is often sold in conjunction with membranes

*SECOS Group (ASX: SES), *with its proprietary technology across an 11-patent family, sits at the cutting edge of *sustainable packaging*. With an annual revenue in excess of $21 million, SECOS supplies biodegradable and Biohybrid™ resins, sustainable packaging products and high-quality cast films to a global base of blue chip customers. However, in a market where hydrocarbon based and probably single-use plastics are cheap and ubiquitous, the company and many others are struggling to gain market share. Market Cap is $25million

There is a sales growth focus on high-margin applications in Biopolymer resin, film & bags
• Targeted sales growth of Biopolymer film & bags direct to Brand, Pet Shop Distributors, Counties, Councils, Waste Companies & hygiene film customers
• Focus on Biohybrid & Compostable sales to large Corporates looking to meet ‘Sustainability Targets’ around renewables 
SES is also looking at Home Compostable resin for food and packaging applications.

*Calix Ltd (CLX)*  has been listed for just over one year. The company positions itself as developing unique, patented technology to provide industrial solutions that address global sustainability challenges. The core technology is being used to develop more environmentally friendly solutions for advanced batteries, crop protection, aquaculture, wastewater, and carbon reduction, mainly using Magnesium Hydroxide liquid. A recent acquisition of a USA company (IER) has seen customers and sales double, with a greater global presence. .. From their website:

_The core technology is an Australian novel, patented “kiln” that produces “mineral honeycomb” – very highly active minerals. Calix is using these minerals, which are safe and environmentally friendly, to improve waste water treatment, biogas production and phosphate removal (SDG 6 and 14), help protect sewer assets from corrosion (SDG 9), help improve food production from aquaculture and agriculture with reduced chemical use (SDG 2, 14 and 15), and developing new battery materials (SDG 7 and 13_).

Many of these projects are in the initial stages of development with much investment to be made to achieve scalable outcomes. Some projects are dependent on research funding. The company has been listed since July 2018. With announcements the shareprice tends to run up, only to retreat again. Market Cap is approx. $80million.

*Genex Power Limited (GNX)* is a power generation development company. The Company is focused on innovative clean energy generation and electricity storage solutions. The Company has a development pipeline of up to 770MW of renewable energy generation and storage projects within its portfolio, underpinned by the Kidston Renewable Energy Hub in far-north Queensland. (this is known as “pumped hydro”, using a series of tunnels between two abandoned mine pits at different elevations). Funding is provided from equity as well as concessional debt through Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF). Financial close for the project should occur soon and term sheets are under negotiation. Market Cap is around $90 million.

*New Energy Solar (NEW) *was established in November 2015 to invest in a diversified portfolio of solar assets across the globe and help investors benefit from the global shift to renewable energy. The Business acquires large scale solar power plants with long term contracted power purchase agreements. In addition to attractive financial returns, this strategy generates significant positive environmental impacts for investors. Since establishment, New Energy Solar has raised over A$500 million of equity, acquired a portfolio of world-class solar power plants, and has a deep pipeline of opportunities primarily across the United States and Australia.

Since listing on the ASX nearly two years ago, the shareprice has declined from $1.50 to $1.20; earnings have increased and dividends paid. Current market cap is around $480million.

*Redflow Limited (RFX)* is an Australian company focusing on manufacturing and development of zinc-bromine flow batteries designed for stationary energy storage applications. RFX's key products are Zcell residential battery and ZBM2 batteries for industrial, commercial, telecommunications and grid-scale deployment. The market for energy storage has matured and grown but intensity of competition has also intensified. While the concept is attractive and flow cell batteries have better characteristics for stationary storage, manufacturers have had a difficult time competing against Lithium-ion and other suppliers, on a cost basis. Listed at $1.00 in 2011, sales were sluggish for many years and have only just picked up; the share price now languishes around 5c. After failing to establish a facility in Mexico, there has been a successful launch and ramp-up in manufacturing of Redflow’s zinc bromine (ZBM) flow batteries in their Thailand factory. In December 2018, RFX manufactured 150 batteries in the month, proving the ability to manufacture quality batteries at volume (demand is not to these levels, however).
- - - - - - - - - -   - - - -
I am sure there are many other listed stocks in the space...  these are just ideas. And the nature of recently listed and possibly fast growing innovative companies is that an ASX listing may provide liquidity and an ability to monetise exit strategies for earlier investors. (so beware!!)


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## sptrawler (8 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics..... *Investment Implications of Climate Change*: (and this is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused), it probably isn't important to dwell on the mechanics or veracity of climate change; just enough to accept that if this is the consensus view, it would be silly to fight it. I mean, if decisions and quotas are made by the political process, and they will, it would be sensible to get on board.)




Believe it or not, that is exactly why @sir Rumpole started this thread, to get away from the political agenda of the "climate change thread", but guess what, this ended up railroaded also. 
By the way a great post post and hopefully it gets the thread back on track, because as you say, it is the way forward.
Have you searched the codes of your suggested companies on the home page, I know we discussed Redflow at length, but they just seemed to lack market penetration.


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## Dona Ferentes (9 January 2020)

came across this company making all the right noises







> The five themes that shape [our] scenarios presently are electric vehicles; the challenges around resecuring the licence to operate; the decarbonisation of the power generation; the changing state of the biosphere and what that is going to mean for things like the way food is produced and water is used; and, finally, the replacement of primary production by recycled materials.





> The demand-and-supply scenarios of these inputs inspire models that generate low, base and high watermarks for future pricing of the commodities [the company] produces and those it might imagine should one day be included in its portfolio...



.
.
.
it's BHP by the way


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## basilio (9 January 2020)

POTY Dona...  Great analysis.
_________________________________________________
Came across a Finnish company, Solar Foods, that is developing quite ground breaking technology to make  protein from air, electricity and water..
* Bill call but could  conceivably  revolutionize  food production across the world within 15 years. *
Not cheap at the moment but it is still at pilot stage.

https://www.foodnavigator.com/Artic...e-most-environmentally-friendly-food-there-is
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51019798


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## orr (10 January 2020)

For those with an interest; Jack Richards 'put' and 'call' postion on the anticipated short squeeze on TSLA, detailed in Jan 5th you-tube... 

An Associated note The Shanghai Giga Factory 3000units/week Model3 capacity ... limited to 1000/week due to battery supply.
Industrial Policy for this country anyone??? see any dots to connect???
Not with this Cabinet of incompetents...


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## Trav. (11 January 2020)

Below article highlights some stocks that might be impacted by the recent bushfires.

https://smallcaps.com.au/australian-bushfires-starting-to-hit-asx/


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## basilio (13 January 2020)

This story has been brewing for quite a while. I think however the current bushfire disaster will bring it to a head in terms of what is insured or  insurable in Australia as the  clear risks of CC disasters has to be factored into the  insurance industry.

*The runaway insurance effect*

For most of us, the problem is in someone else’s backyard, in some other neighbourhood.
But for an increasing number of Australians, it’s right on their doorsteps. Many just don’t know it … yet. _(but soon they are about to find out. ed_)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03...ls-australias-worst-affected-regions/10892710


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## orr (14 January 2020)

To follow up the reference to Jack Rickards 'Put'&'Call'  on TSLA. He unpacks his weeks trades in a You-tube on 12/Jan...
This is a '*how to'* trouser(in this case) >$160k US in a week on approx $50k down...north of %300.
But you'd have to have an interest.
Apologies for straying outside Australian stocks...


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## orr (21 January 2020)

With Blackrock's signaling last week, and it's signaling was weak; But adding now BIS's warning as to what it terms 'GreenSwan' event leading to a 'run for the doors' exiting of Carbon intensive business's leaving in Australia's case 'The Reserve Bank' as the only buyer for the the stock, worthless stock... Finance and Treasury in this country any comment??? 
Any Position???
Anything???
Given what we've seen of the of Morrison's 'War Gaming' skills... God help us because the god botherer wont.


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## Dona Ferentes (31 January 2020)

And 2020 may be the year it goes seriously mainstream?







> “Last but not least, I just returned from Davos [World Economic Forum], where everyone was focused on sustainability, the world’s perspective on company performance continues to rapidly expand beyond financial. From where we are today, the importance of managing aspects such as the carbon footprint will massively increase”
> Christian Klein, Co-CEO, SAP SE


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## orr (3 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And 2020 may be the year it goes seriously mainstream?



And by extrapolation  due to the mis-management of Australia's Carbon footprint we will see a marked decrease in the value of the Australian Dollar and incumbent flow-on effects.


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## basilio (11 September 2020)

The  US wildfires  are now beyond catastrophic. The broader implications for financial markets, property markets and other investment areas is coming to the fore.

*US wildfires could spark financial crisis, advisory panel finds*
Home values, state tourism and local governments could be damaged, causing defaults and market disruptions

The devastating wildfires now sweeping across the western US are among the sparks from climate change that could ignite a financial crisis by damaging home values, state tourism and local government budgets, an advisory panel to a US markets regulator found.

Those effects could set off a cascade of events including defaults and market disruptions, undermining the economy and sparking a crisis, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
More than 85 significant fires are currently burning across the west, destroying communities in California, Oregon and Washington state.

“As we’ve seen in the past few weeks alone, extreme weather events continue to sweep the nation, from the severe wildfires of the west to the devastating midwest derecho and damaging Gulf coast hurricanes. This trend – which is increasingly becoming our new normal – will likely continue to worsen in frequency and intensity as a result of a changing climate,” said Rostin Behnam, CFTC commissioner.

“Beyond their physical devastation and tragic loss of human life and livelihood, escalating weather events also pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth,” said Behnam.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/10/us-wildfires-financial-crisis-markets-cftc-report


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## Dona Ferentes (23 January 2021)

revisiting my post of a year ago  (#167 in this thread).... Like most, that post was a thought bubble, treating a thematic as a set of investible possibilities and some that I had already taken small positions in.

Where are we now, 12 and a bit months later? Doing quite well, for my style of _Identify, buy, monitor, hold (add to on occasion). _Avoided the dogs and up on the rest. Covid downturn threw a few cheap offerings my way.

*Energy One Limited (ASX:EOL*) . Was $3.00, now $6.34.
I initially bought 2.5K in Oct '19, at $2.65, topped up 5K in the SPP in May '20 at $2.20. Received a dividend in Oct.
Reason for buying: liked the story. has some 50% of its market in Aust, which is growing as energy trading gets more complex with renewables, plus 5 minute market. Expanding into Europe. Profitable.

*Fluence Corporation (FLC) .  *Was $0.45, now $0.24
Did not purchase.
Those that want this technology generally can't afford it? Africa is hard, China opaque*.

Phoslock Environmental Technologies Limited (PET)*, Was $0.77, now $0.24
Did not purchase.
Did not like the over-reliance on China, a small company trying its luck in a big pond.

*De.mem Limited (DEM)*. was $0.24, now $0.31
Purchased 25K In Dec '19 at $0.26, added 35K in Jun '20 at $0.16
I remember Memtec. Water and waste management in bite size contracts. Expanding through acquisiton. Singapore is a good base for growth

*SECOS Group (ASX: SES), *was $0.08, now $0.24
I did not purchase. Not convinced there was an identifiable silo, and priced for premium, discretionary market.

*Calix Ltd (CLX)*  was $0.77, now $1.20
Purchased 10K in Dec '19 at $0.75, added 10K in May '20 at $0.71
Liked the technology story. Clearly the EU is driving change. Prepared to hold for a long time.

*Genex Power Limited (GNX)*  was $0.22, now $0.24.
Did not purchase. Probably always a marginal proposition; too slow, too many boxes to tick, too far from markets.f

*New Energy Solar (NEW) *was $1.30, now $0.93
Did not purchase. Didn't pass the pub test. Too much emotional construct.

*Redflow Limited (RFX)* , was $0.43, now $0.35
Purchased 320K in Aug '20 at $0.24, sold all in Nov '20at $0.27
Never going to get the headlines, the subsidies or the pricing of Lithium. Figured it had reached a low, after the capital injection. Decided to take profits.

_Of course, this is only one subset of the topic. The decarbonisation story, coupled with technology advances and digitisation of everything, means we are in a time of great change. _


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 January 2021)

Just correcting a decimal point slippage 

*Redflow Limited (RFX)* , was $0.043, now $0.035
Purchased 320K in Aug '20 at $0.024, sold all in Nov '20 at $0.027.

_- still a profit, only smaller_


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## Dona Ferentes (23 January 2021)

adding to the list: _(do not hold any)_

*SciDev Limited (SDV).* $0.77. Is involved indevelopment and application of both chemistry and process control for solids-liquid separation. SciDev brings in technology, chemistry, management and manufacturing capabilities to solve pressing operational and environmental issues for the mining, construction, water treatment and oil & gas markets.

*Carbonxt Group Limited (CG1).  *$0.19. is a cleantech company that develops and markets specialised Activated Carbon (AC) products, primarily focused on the capture of mercury and sulphur in industrial processes that emit substantial amounts of harmful air pollutants. The Company produces and manufactures Powdered Activated Carbon and Activated Carbon pellets for use in industrial air purification, waste water treatment and other liquid and gas phase markets.           

*Leaf Resources Ltd (LER).* $0.065.  Leaf Resources Ltd, formerly Leaf Energy Ltd, is an Australian company with a vision, turning *waste biomass* into cellulose derivatives, bioplastics and green chemicals through Leaf Resources Glycell Process. The Company target markets are USA, Australia, Malaysia. Recently raised capital and changed tack; acquired Essential Queensland, which is commissioning its first plant for xtraction of pine chemicals at Apple Tree Creek facility, in Qld.

A similar story to LER, & better developed:
*Nanallose Limited NC6*. $0.18. Is involved in R&D and promotion of the Company's microbial cellulose technology. The primary focus has been directed towards the development of their Plant-Free viscose-rayon fibre (Nullarbor), as a replacement for water-thirsty cotton. Also  developing a commercial supply chain of microbial cellulose from a variety of *waste streams*. In January, it filed a joint patent application with Grasim Industries Ltd for a high tenacity lyocell fibre made from Microbial Cellulose. SP jumped from 5c to 20c


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## jbocker (24 January 2021)

OK I think the Green Energy thing is getting more legs ie momentum is increasing. I have been caught before though and a quick read of the link helps me being over zealous. I have linked it in case others might want some review of Green in the past.. (it is a small thread) Comments from 2015 &  2019. I think some of the old tech initiatives may resurface.

Green Stocks Review | Aussie Stock Forums


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## Smurf1976 (24 January 2021)

jbocker said:


> OK I think the Green Energy thing is getting more legs ie momentum is increasing.



As a fundamental observation:

Wind and solar PV have won the race so far as "new" renewable energy sources are concerned alongside the long established albeit volume constrained options of hydro and biomass. They're being deployed on a sufficient scale to say they're the benchmark against which anything else will be measured.

Versus any system involving solar energy producing steam or things like wave power. There are still companies having a go but ultimately it's no longer a case of developing a viable option, we have two in the form of wind and solar, but rather that anything else will need to beat them to gain any real market.

On the storage side, batteries are current flavour of the month and in the context of being grid-connected they certainly are viable for short term storage, generally up to 4 hours worth seems to be attractive to owners commercially for new developments. Beyond that though for longer term storage pumped hydro has a definite cost advantage. Anything else will need to prove itself versus those two.

For things which move there's more space for something new since whilst current batteries do work, it would be seriously pushing the limits to get a large plane up in the air powered by them. There's still a strong incentive for R&D in this area (current batteries are good enough for cars though certainly).


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## frugal.rock (24 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics..... *Investment Implications of Climate Change*: (and this is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused),



Have taken a long term position in Cfoam, ASX CFO just before end of year.
Entry was $0.027 I believe.
Watched it travel up to $0.060+ but resisted the sell. 
I have high hopes for it progressing over the next few years, as does @finicky
The main takeaway was CFO is using/ turning coal into other products without burning it, thus locking up the carbon. 
Looking ahead, the coal mining industry would no doubt be supportive, as would many other groups. 
Coal miners are currently feeling the hard brunt of enviro forces, as some investors would be well aware of...


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## Dona Ferentes (24 January 2021)

jbocker said:


> OK I think the Green Energy thing is getting more legs ie momentum is increasing. I have been caught before though and a quick read of the link helps me being over zealous. I have linked it in case others might want some review of Green in the past.. (it is a small thread) Comments from 2015 &  2019. I think some of the old tech initiatives may resurface.
> 
> Green Stocks Review | Aussie Stock Forums



Salutary learning experiences !! Some like GDY and Carnegie managed to spend money for very little benefit. I notice most of my stocks tend to be remediators rather than green initiatives.

From 2019, I saw @Ann had a list of *Power Renewable Electricity Producers.* CCE, EWC, GNX, IFN, KPO, NEW, PEA, POW, RNE, VPR, ZEN. So, where are they now?

CCE Carnegie Clean Energy .... $0.02. Wave good bye to their swell ideas. On life support
EWC Energy World Corp ...... In Asia. Funding challenges
GNX Genex Power .............  Kidston and more
IFN Infigen Energy ............. Taken over 2020
KPO Kalina Power .............. Waste heat to power. In Alberta
NEW New Energy Solar ..... Utility-scale solar power plants
PEA Pacific Energy............. Delisted 2019 T/O.
POW Protean Energy....... Was into waves, now vanadium resource and vanadium battery technology (S Korea)
RNE Renu Energy ............ formerly Geodynamics, then bio energy, now exploring _transformative opportunities_
VPR Volt Power Group ..... formerly Enerji Ltd, is a power generation technology and infrastructure asset / equipment developer
ZEN Zenith Energy ............ delisted; T/O in 2020 by Elemental Infrastructure BidCo


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## qldfrog (24 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Salutary learning experiences !! Some like GDY and Carnegie managed to spend money for very little benefit. I notice most of my stocks tend to be remediators rather than green initiatives.
> 
> From 2019, I saw @Ann had a list of *Power Renewable Electricity Producers.* CCE, EWC, GNX, IFN, KPO, NEW, PEA, POW, RNE, VPR, ZEN. So, where are they now?
> 
> ...



Sadly,many are just narratives, with less ip than i could provide....


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## jbocker (24 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> CCE Carnegie Clean Energy .... $0.02. Wave good bye to their swell ideas. On life support



Love the puns. There was some very serious effort and operations created and trialled, but has gone underwater in more ways than designed.


Dona Ferentes said:


> RNE Renu Energy ............ formerly Geodynamics, then bio energy, now exploring _transformative opportunities_



Geodynamics  using Hot Rocks  was another well trialled effort became operational and ultimately was going to power a very small town as proof of concept. Then there was a big bang down the hole and it went to sheeet. Still work being done years later with remediation of the sites.  I note on another thread Twiggy Forest suggesting geothermal a possibility for power creation in his green steel concept. Careful Twiggy.

Another that went quite some way towards a Green solution was Ceramic Fuel Cells *CFU*, even built a factory in Germany for production of  fuel cells. Companies were going to build washing machine sized generators sell excess power to the grid and have all the heating and hot water you could want. Not listed anymore but I think there are some held interests somewhere. Bink Bonk. 37 page thread CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells | Aussie Stock Forums


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## sptrawler (24 January 2021)

jbocker said:


> Love the puns. There was some very serious effort and operations created and trialled, but has gone underwater in more ways than designed.
> 
> Geodynamics  using Hot Rocks  was another well trialled effort became operational and ultimately was going to power a very small town as proof of concept. Then there was a big bang down the hole and it went to sheeet. Still work being done years later with remediation of the sites.  I note on another thread Twiggy Forest suggesting geothermal a possibility for power creation in his green steel concept. Careful Twiggy.
> 
> Another that went quite some way towards a Green solution was Ceramic Fuel Cells *CFU*, even built a factory in Germany for production of  fuel cells. Companies were going to build washing machine sized generators sell excess power to the grid and have all the heating and hot water you could want. Not listed anymore but I think there are some held interests somewhere. Bink Bonk. 37 page thread CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells | Aussie Stock Forums



You are dead right jbocker a lot of hard work and effort, blood sweat and tears would have gone into Carnegie, by a lot of dedicated people, but it wouldn't have been from lack of effort that it failed.
As @Smurf1976  has posted cost rep Kw, solar/wind wins it hands down, cost per Kw over time hydro wins it, wave power falls into the nice idea but cost per Kw isn't competitive at this time.


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## Dona Ferentes (24 January 2021)

sptrawler said:


> You are dead right jbocker a lot of hard work and effort, blood sweat and tears would have gone into Carnegie, by a lot of dedicated people, but it wouldn't have been from lack of effort that it failed.



It rusted. Marine fouling. Also an unpredictable three dimensional sinusoidal movement. Doomed.

On GDY, that company is the proud claimant to the only measured manmade earthquake in Aust, at 2.1 on Richter scale, from one of their attempts to fracture at Innamincka, I recall. Just don't call it fraccing, which is immeasurably worse.


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## sptrawler (24 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> It rusted. Marine fouling. Also an unpredictable three dimensional sinusoidal movement. Doomed.
> 
> On GDY, that company is the proud claimant to the only measured manmade earthquake in Aust, at 2.1 on Richter scale, from one of their attempts to fracture at Innamincka, I recall. Just don't call it fraccing, which is immeasurably worse.



Yes it all becomes "flogging a dead horse", thankfully the Government saw sense and stopped pouring taxpayers money into a lost cause.

It's a shame that media pump priming, keeps things going far longer than they should, not saying that innovation shouldn't be supported but not at the detriment of something that is proving more successful.


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## basilio (22 February 2021)

This joint venture is worth keeping an eye on in terms of investment opportunities around protecting our natural capital.

Joint venture looks to invest billions in 'natural capital' projects to help combat climate change​Founding partner says ‘investing in the resilience of nature is investing in the resilience of the economy’

A push to better recognise the economic value of “natural capital” – water systems, biodiversity, soil and carbon stores – has prompted the creation of what aims to be the world’s largest investment firm dedicated to projects that help the planet.

Multinational financial services giant HSBC and Pollination, a boutique climate advisory and investment firm, announced a joint venture that they predicted would meet a multi-billion dollar demand for environmentally friendly investment beyond renewable energy.

In a statement on Wednesday, they said the new body would back projects in areas including sustainable forestry, regenerative agriculture, water supply improvement, bio-fuels and “blue carbon” capture in oceans and coastal ecosystems.

Martijn Wilder, a Pollination founding partner and former chair of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, said the newly created HSBC Pollination Climate Asset Management would accelerate investment that could help combat climate change and build biodiversity while generating long-term returns for institutional investors.









						Joint venture looks to invest billions in 'natural capital' projects to help combat climate change
					

Founding partner says ‘investing in the resilience of nature is investing in the resilience of the economy’




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (19 March 2021)

Coles joins Woolworths and Aldi in using 100% renewable energy within 4 years.  Also taking a range of actions in house to use less energy and more decisively to a fossil free future.

Supermarkets are big power users - and leaders. I think many other orgs will look at the figures and follow.









						Coles shuns coal: supermarket giant vows to source all its electricity from renewables by 2025
					

Australian climate campaigners hail decision: ‘An announcement like this changes the national story’




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (19 March 2021)

This is Woolworths announcements of its strategy to zero emissions.  Like other supermarkets the ROI by moving to renewable and recyclable products is part of their decision.









						Woolworths Group to be powered by 100% green energy by 2025 in move set to help grow renewable sector - Woolworths Group
					

New Woolworths Group Sustainability Plan includes commitment to zero food waste to landfill by 2025   100% of Woolworths’ own brand packaging to be recyclable, reusable or compostable by 2023   Net positive carbon emissions b...




					www.woolworthsgroup.com.au


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## basilio (19 March 2021)

Aldi has also stated it will use 100% renewable energy * by the end of 2021.  *
Again like the other supermarket chains it is redirecting  unused food to foodbanks etc.
*





						Environment - ALDI Australia
					

ALDI




					corporate.aldi.com.au
				



*


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## basilio (21 March 2021)

NSW is facing unprecedented flooding.  One could say these were Acts of God but all the science is recognising that Global Heating is creating extreme  weather conditions as well as ongoing climate change around the world. Intense rain events are part of these changes.

The economic consequences of these events? Let's  see. 








						Sydney is bracing for a significant flood — here's why the city has found itself in danger
					

They key to understanding NSW's floods could be closer to home than you think — behold, the "bathtub effect".




					www.abc.net.au


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## bk1 (21 March 2021)

But its not unprecedented, is it...

Unlike El Nino years, the impacts of La Nina often continue into the warm months. In eastern Australia, the average December-March rainfall during La Niña years is 20% higher than the long-term average, with eight of the ten wettest such periods occurring during La Niña years. This is particularly notable for the east coast, which tends to be less affected by La Niña during the winter months but can experience severe flooding during La Niña summers.

The presence of La Niña increases the chance of widespread flooding. *Of the 18 La Niña events since 1900* (including multi-year events), 12 have resulted in flooding for some parts of Australia, with the east coast experiencing twice as many severe floods during La Niña years than El Niño years



			What is La Niña and how does it impact Australia?


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## basilio (21 March 2021)

bk1 said:


> But its not unprecedented, is it...
> 
> Unlike El Nino years, the impacts of La Nina often continue into the warm months. In eastern Australia, the average December-March rainfall during La Niña years is 20% higher than the long-term average, with eight of the ten wettest such periods occurring during La Niña years. This is particularly notable for the east coast, which tends to be less affected by La Niña during the winter months but can experience severe flooding during La Niña summers.
> 
> ...




Yes La Nina events result in heavier than normal rainfalls and  associated flooding.  The point about CC is that it adds another layer of extreme weather conditions on top of what has been considered "normal" .  The  rainfall figures in NSW up to Feb have already previous records and that is before the completion of this event.

There will be consequences of CC and heightened extreme weather conditions - whether drought, extreme heat waves, or extreme rainfall events are occuring.

Just check out the insurance companies.



			New South Wales in Summer 2021
		









						Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms
					

From Atlantic hurricanes to the Indian monsoons, storms are getting worse and becoming more erratic.




					www.nature.com
				











						Climate change and P&C insurance: The threat and opportunity
					

Many insurance business models must adapt to the effects from climate change




					www.mckinsey.com


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## basilio (21 March 2021)

The current rain event in NSW is still unfolding beyond all experiences in living memory.









						'Never seen anything like it': locals watch helplessly as floodwaters rise across New South Wales
					

With the mid north coast of Australia facing a once-in-a-century flood, residents are bracing for the worst as the rain keeps falling




					www.theguardian.com
				












						Flood evacuation orders issued as federal government announces disaster relief payments – as it happened
					

Penrith floods could be worst in 60 years, as Queensland and SA send emergency crews to help. This blog is now closed




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (22 March 2021)

Insurance companies taking a beating as the floods in Eastern Australia worsen.
It will be interesting to see how  flood damage is treated and costed . After the floods  (like the bushfires in 2020)  the insurance companies will reassess the cost and coverage of flood affected areas. Watch out for uninsurable districts.

There will also be (upward) adjustments to everyones insurance  premium to cover the costs of this disaster.


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## basilio (22 March 2021)

Satirical but not untrue.  Historical "One in a 100 year" events are now happening with disturbing frequency.
The cumulative effect on the economy, infrastructure and financial institutions  will be testing.

*NSW Residents Facing Fourth Once-In-A-Hundred-Year Event Since Last January * 

As flood waters continue to rise across the state, residents of New South Wales are weathering their fourth once-in-a-lifetime event since the start of last year.

Penrith resident Helen McMannis said she would be telling the grandkids about the floods of 2021, after she’d finished telling them about the floods, smoke, bushfires and global pandemic of 2020.           
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/03/22/nsw-fourth-once-in-a-one-hundred-year-event-last-january/


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## basilio (22 March 2021)

Nonetheless,*. Flood, fire, COVID or mice plague - Love will always find a way.❤️.*

*

*


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## basilio (24 March 2021)

Many parts of Australia have experienced 4 major disasters in a bit over a year. Each of these has impacted on infrastructure, employment and community resilience. CC has been a contributing element to the severity of at least some of these events.

This story details the range of disasters and the cumulative impact on Local Government Areas  (LGA's) around Australia.








						For some areas hit by NSW flood crisis, it's the fourth disaster in a year
					

Two dozen declared disaster areas also flooded last year. Many also experienced bushfires and drought




					www.theguardian.com


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## Dona Ferentes (25 March 2021)

bringing the thread back on its original purpose  .... which when _*Investment Implications of Climate Change*_ merges with _*Aussie Stock Forums *_tends to point towards talking about ASX stocks that are positioned for adaption, whether it be emerging technologies or whatever,...

Stockhead came up with an an article on recycling; apart from the big boys CWY and BIN, there were 4 interesting small caps that are in this space:








						As the 'waste export ban' looms, these four ASX small caps are rewriting the recycling rulebook - Stockhead
					

ASX green waste tech and recycling is a burgeoning industry. Waste management is also part of the new ESG global economy.




					stockhead.com.au
				





SciDev (ASX:SDV)


> SciDev is developing the chemistry and process control for solids-liquid separation. It brings in technology and manufacturing capabilities to solve environmental issues for the mining, construction, and water treatment markets. The company is specifically focused on fine particle separation chemistry (colloid chemistry), which is reported to be a US$11 billion sector within the broader US$100 billion global commodity chemistry market. Recent significant contract wins include Shell, Melbourne Metro, and a field validation work for BHP at Olympic Dam copper mine.
> 
> Its latest financials show a 23 per cent increase in 1H FY21 gross profit, and its share price has shot up almost 150 per cent over the past year.





Papyrus Australia (ASX: PPY)​


> Papyrus develops technology that converts the waste trunk of the banana palm into products used in the packaging, furniture, and construction industries. The company says its products have qualities not found in existing wood-based products, due to the ability to preserve the inherent natural qualities of the banana tree trunk.
> 
> The focus of the company in the past year has been to expand its Papyrus Egypt business, and apply its know-how in a developing country where bananas are grown. The company has also had success in Japan, exporting its veneer products to the Yamaha musical instruments manufacturers, as well as a recent licensing agreement in China for its technology.
> 
> The latest half year of FY21 shows $0.18 million profit before tax. Its share price has surged by 360 per cent over the past 12 months.




Range International (ASX:RAN)​


> RAN is a manufacturer of recycled plastic pallets. Its thermo-fusion technology allows it to make plastic pallets from 100% recycled mixed waste plastic, at a price that is competitive with wood pallets. It currently has four production lines operating in Indonesia, and sells its pallets under the brand Re>Pal.
> 
> he company says its pallets are a sustainable alternative to timber, which subsequently reduces deforestation. Deforestation is especially a major problem in Indonesia, and the government there has banned logging of primary forest to supply wood for pallets. RAN aims to take advantage of these developments.
> 
> The company delivered a net loss for the full FY20 of $3 mlllion, which was a substantial improvement from its $9.2 million loss in 2019. Its share price has surged by 130 per cent over the past year.




Pearl Global (ASX: PG1)​


> Pearl focuses on the environmental technology for the waste tyre industry. It applies thermal desorption technology to convert end-of-life tyres into valuable secondary products such as fuel oil, steel, carbon char and energy. It’s the first Australian company licensed to thermally treat tyres, after the government banned the export of waste tyres.
> 
> The company says it’s serving a large addressable market, with 1.6 billion tyres discarded globally every year, of which Australia makes up 56 million. Pearl says it has processed over 1 million tyres to date at its Stapylton facility.
> 
> Revenues for the FY21 half show a 40 per cent increase to $1.5 million, for a net loss of $4.1 million. It share price has risen by 6 per cent in the past year.




_I am well familiar with SDV, but the other three are less so. These sorts of promotional articles are only useful to inform us of opportunities but usually a bit more checking needs to be done.  The backstory of each can be ascertained from Company records and Reports, as do the Financials, and ASF performs a great service with the narratives there, selective  yes but informative, to understand what has come before.

Some companies, even with great ideas, never get to be successful. Is there a moat, are other companies, perhaps overseas, involved in similar, is the Board and Management united in pursuing growth? And is there value; with the proliferation of 'motherhood' (ESG) investing, are too many (especially minnow) companies overbought just because demand is skewed?_


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## basilio (2 April 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> bringing the thread back on its original purpose .... which when _*Investment Implications of Climate Change*_ merges with _*Aussie Stock Forums *_tends to point towards talking about ASX stocks that are positioned for adaption, whether it be emerging technologies or whatever,...




Fair point. 
However I think it would be unrealistic to ignore the impact of CC on Insurance Companies and the  consequences  of uninsurable properties on banks and the community.









						Fire and flood: 'Whole areas of Australia will be uninsurable'
					

Extreme weather events caused by the climate emergency are an existential threat to homeowners and industry alike




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (2 April 2021)

Came across the story of liquid metal batteries.   Compelling case of a technology that will be the critical element to ensuring cost effective back up for renewable energy.







__





						News: Ambri
					






					ambri.com


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## basilio (29 May 2021)

The downside of Global Heating will be the effect it has on all economic and social activity. From an investment POV this translates into understanding how enterprises will be impacted by a warming climate.

In Australia APRA is now stress testing  banks on the impact of 3C increase in global temperatures. This prospect is still currently  quite likely given the rate of movement on reducing GG emissions.

Be interesting to see the outcome of their stress tests.  Will also be interesting to see the impact of their findings on stock market investments.









						More than 3 degrees: Regulator preparing for climate change doomsday scenario
					

A key financial regulator is testing what would happen to Australia's economy if climate change creates a 'hot house world' with temperatures 3-degrees higher than the Earth's current average.




					www.abc.net.au
				



Key points:​
APRA will commission research to illustrate the financial risks of unchecked climate change
The scenario maps more than 3 degrees of warming, but also the impact of 'tipping points' that may be triggered if the world surpasses 2 degrees
Such situations could create what some experts call "runaway temperature scenarios"
These are the current scenarios. Note that even* rigorous *actions to reduce GG emissions still sees a 50% probability of 3 C plus warming. 









						Climate change scenario - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## basilio (31 May 2021)

Back to the impact of Global Heating on businesses and people requiring insurance in Australia. The Age has a sobering story on the refusal of insurance companies to offer  any realistic or indeed *any *insurance on many rural properties.  

The  forced closure of hundreds of regional holiday destinations will undermine much of rural Australia. People won't visit the regions. Associated industries will also fail. Be interested to see what the National Party response will be.

‘I didn’t think it was possible’: Why bush holidays could become a thing of the past​


By Carrie Fellner​ May 30, 2021 — 12.00am


View all comments

Popular tourist destinations in the most captivating corners of Australia have become no-go zones for insurers following the Black Summer bushfires, forcing pandemic-battered businesses to close or risk everything operating uninsured.
One luxury bushland retreat in Victoria was knocked back by 38 insurers before receiving an “insulting” quote of $6.5 million in premiums for a business worth $3.5 million.


Owner Julie Pennefather (right) has been unable to obtain insurance on her property, Woodbine Park Eco Cabins near Merimbula, for the first time in 35 years.Credit:Angi High

*But even though scores of businesses have been quietly pleading their case with the government, their plight has gone largely unpublicised because operators fear it will damage resale values if it emerges they have become uninsurable.
*
The owner of the Victorian retreat, who requested anonymity due to those concerns, said he was on the brink of closure even though his property had never been affected by bushfire.

“Never in my life have I come across this,” he said. “I didn’t think it was possible.”

_The Sun-Herald_ and _The Sunday Age _have spoken to three businesses on the NSW South Coast and two in Victoria that have not been able to insure their properties this year for the first time.

They warn the escalating problem is threatening to derail the economic recovery across regional Australia, where operators have been battered by worsening natural disasters due to climate change, border closures and pandemic lockdowns.

Australia also stands to lose the unique bushland experiences that prove a major international tourist drawcard, they say.

Last year hundreds of businesses contacted Australia’s Small Business Ombudsman’s office warning they would have to close if insurance did not become available to them.
Ombudsman Bruce Billson said he was aware of instances where that had now come to pass.

“We’ve had pubs that have been operating for a century in a vicinity of a national park being told that’s not something people want to insure any more,” he said.









						Why bush holidays could become a thing of the past
					

Popular tourist destinations across the country are in a battle for their survival as insurers flee the industry en masse.




					www.theage.com.au


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## basilio (1 June 2021)

One of the ways we can address CC issues is reducing our use of GG emitting processes and substantially increasing the use of trees /wood products to sequester CO2 .  It will also be invaluable to use timber for construction purposes.

I came across a couple of processes that would make timber far more effective and versatile as building product as well as in manufacturing.

Stronger than aluminum, a heavily altered wood cools passively​By

John Timmer 
Ars Technica
5 min
View Original







A look at the lignin-free compressed wood.

Most of our building practices aren't especially sustainable. Concrete production is a major source of carbon emissions, and steel production is very resource intensive. Once completed, heating and cooling buildings becomes a major energy sink. There are various ideas on how to handle each of these issues, like variations on concrete's chemical formula or passive cooling schemes.

But now, a large team of US researchers has found a single solution that appears to manage everything using a sustainable material that both reflects sunlight and radiates away excess heat. The miracle material? Wood. Or a form of wood that has been treated to remove one of its two main components.



			https://getpocket.com/read/2602834238


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## basilio (1 June 2021)

Another simple process that can make wood a super product.

Stronger Than Steel, Able to Stop a Speeding Bullet—It’s Super Wood!​By

Sid Perkins 
Pocket
4 min
View Original




Simple processes can make wood tough, impact-resistant—or even transparent.​


			https://getpocket.com/read/2810760847


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## basilio (5 June 2021)

This story seems very important.  Exxon has has 3 new members as a result of shareholder pressure to recognise the opportunities and need to go to carbon free  energy.  In theory it was just a very small Hedge fund that proposed the changes but it's argument and the quality of the proposed new Board members swayed much larger shareholders to vote with them on the proposal.

_...unlike the campaigns which last week forced Chevron and Shell to cut their carbon emissions, Engine No 1 puts profits first.

James said that environmental impact is just one consideration his firm uses to allocate its time and capital, and that ultimately the aim is to create wealth._

*“We strongly believe that climate risk is business risk,” he says. “Fossil fuels have big negative impacts. We take a long-term view to value creation, which means taking these externalities into account. There’s an intrinsic link.”*

_James’s strategy is to find companies that are falling short of their potential, and then press for changes to increase their market value. The fund has just 22 employees and $240m (£170m) of funds under management.

*Exxon was the first target, and the fund set out to replace four board members with directors who have “experience in successful and profitable energy industry transformations” which can help to turn the challenge of the climate crisis “into a long-term business plan, not talking point”.*_









						‘This isn’t ideological’: reluctant ‘green hero’ behind Exxon coup
					

Tiny hedge fund Engine No 1 says a strong climate strategy simply makes good business sense




					www.theguardian.com
				





Final point..

Industry commentators believe their success proves that the world’s biggest investors are finally aligned with climate campaigners in accepting that sustainability is not only essential for the survival of the planet, but for the future of major companies too.


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## basilio (5 June 2021)

More analysis on the change to the Exxon Board.









						How did a green, newbie hedge fund out-play Exxon so comprehensively? | Nils Pratley
					

The day Big Oil discovered that the makeup of its board could be changed against its will




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (9 June 2021)

The issue of  Global Heating and the effect on insurance , the housing market and general societal impacts should be the core of corners about our economy.  Consider yet another analysis of these compounding issues.

*Let's be clear. If a property is uninsurable you can't sell it.  It loses all external economic value.* (You can still live in it of course. and I reckon the rates  and land taxes will still be on the table .)

_No matter how much you pay for your home or car insurance, if your property is damaged by mouse plague, nuclear radiation, war or rising sea levels you are almost certainly on your own.

If you’re lucky, your insurance might cover you against storms but maybe not against floods (you know the difference, right?). Likewise, your insurance almost certainly doesn’t cover you against storm surges or a dam bursting.

Australians spend more than $10bn for non-life insurance products each year, even though there’s only a one in 500 chance your house will catch fire.

That’s why there’s so much profit to be made in insurance. If a forecaster says something’s likely to happen, then it’s highly unlikely you’ll be able to get insurance against it.

...While insurance companies make their profit out of our fear of an individual catastrophe, they would lose their entire business if they insured against society-wide catastrophe. We take it for granted that insurance companies will pay out if an accident hits our car or house but most people rarely think about what will happen if catastrophe hits us all at once. Which is why the small print on insurance premiums is so small._









						Mice, floods and the climate crisis: why your insurance won’t cover society-wide catastrophes | Richard Denniss
					

The best way to keep premiums down is to prevent climate change and the disasters it causes




					www.theguardian.com
				












						Fire and flood: 'Whole areas of Australia will be uninsurable'
					

Extreme weather events caused by the climate emergency are an existential threat to homeowners and industry alike




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (23 June 2021)

Came across this video while surfing. Piqued my interest. INV well worth checking out.
Then looked for the company that is behind the idea and trying to become the big wheel in carbon capture and recycling.











						Home
					

Carbon and Plastic Waste Capture project recycling waste plastic of any type into 100s of usable bio-material products. Part of the




					www.carbotura.com
				











						Solving some of Planet Earth's most challenging problems
					

A holding company, based in Naples, Florida, focused on solving some of Planet Earth's most challenging problems such as waste plastic, CO2 emissions, and bad water. Gravitas Infinitum builds and acquires companies and projects that provide a positive environmental impact, deliver eco-friendly...




					www.gravitasinfinitum.com


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## basilio (30 June 2021)

Global warming is costing us plenty.  Sky rocketing fire, flood and storm damage. Long term flooding  of coastal areas.

So who is responsible ? Who will be paying. 
The Insurance Industry is centerpoint of this conversation. This presentation offers an insight into the risks that need to be managed.

*Costly climate change confronts planet*

 
by _Resolve_ Editor, Kate Tilley               
 
*Climate change will result in more financial losses globally than anything else, short of a major war.*

That’s the dire warning from Davey Salmon, an Auckland-based barrister and former founding partner of Lee Salmon Long.

He told an environmental liability breakout session at the NZILA conference that data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was “overwhelmingly clear once you read it. It’s not hyperbole, there’s consensus”.

IPCC, a United Nations unit, prepares comprehensive assessment reports on the state of scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for reducing the rate at which climate change is taking place.

Mr Salmon said people were slow to react because of uncertainty and parliaments could delay action into the next election cycle, *but the data was real and courts could look at the actual science and act on it.*

Mr Salmon said three NZ Supreme Court judges, Justices Helen Winkelmann, Susan Glazebrook and Ellen France, delivered a significant paper on climate change and climate change litigation at the Asia Pacific Judicial Colloquium. Click here to read the paper.

Lee Salmon Long solicitor Harriet Bush told NZILA delegates *the paper was important research that identified where the judges considered courses of action lay and stressed denial was unlikely to be a successful defence.*

The paper reviewed significant global climate litigation, including landmark cases such as _Thomson__ v Minister for Climate Change_ _Issues_ [2017] NZHC 733, [2018] 2 NZLR 160 and _West Coast__ ENT Inc v Buller Coal Ltd_ [2013] NZSC 87, [2014] 1 NZLR 32.

*Ms Bush said the judges warned that, from a corporate governance perspective, directors could be liable because addressing climate change was not just an ethical but a financial issue.*

However the judges identified two competing themes. “If the courts don’t deal with climate change, it challenges their legitimacy, but judges can’t overstep their judicial role,” she said.

Mr Salmon agreed directors would increasingly be held to account. *Other “easy areas” for action were professional negligence cases against engineers, planners and architects who approved buildings in inappropriate areas or with insufficient foundations.
*
The threat of climate change had moved beyond a debate about foreseeability of loss or harm. On proximity, he said: “In one view it’s remote but, on another, the connection is obvious to climate scientists.

“We’re now in a different world to the snail in the ginger beer bottle. The harm is monstrous and knowingly caused ... for profit.”

While judges had focused on damages, there was a need to examine injunctive relief in apportioning loss for knowingly causing harm.               
Mr Salmon said local authorities would bear “a lot of the brunt” and the exposure. He warned they should “think twice about letting anyone build on low-lying land”.

“The science is clear, the law is not, yet.”




__





						Resolve - December 2019
					





					www.aila.com.au


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## basilio (8 July 2021)

The collapse of the Champlain Tower on the Florida beach front has accelerated concern about the impact of sea level rise on all the waterfront towers.

Very good overview of the implications raised in terms of investor losses, building policy changes and insurance cover.









						SEA-LEVEL RISE: Condo collapse could stoke Miami climate fear in homebuyers
					

The deadly collapse of a South Florida condominium last week likely will add more uncertainty to a local real estate market already riven by climate change, experts said.




					www.eenews.net


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## Smurf1976 (8 July 2021)

basilio said:


> Very good overview of the implications raised in terms of investor losses, building policy changes and insurance cover.



Political debate and so on aside, it's a practical reality that pretty much everything built by humans was built with the climate as an influence.

It's why even within Australia there are differences in building designs between states and so on. All comes down to two things really - local availability of materials and the climate.

If the climate changes well then all sorts of problems arise that might not be obvious.

Sea level impacts on buildings is one.

Maximum rainfall intensity impact on things like roofs, drainage systems, dam spillways etc is another. 

Then there's things like roads. The exact formulation of the seal is influenced by the climate and what it needs to withstand and that's very local, eg there are differences between Australian states in how that's done. What works best to withstand cold weather and not crack has the downside that it'll melt if it gets too hot. What's best to withstand the heat isn't good in the cold. etc.

Pretty much everything built by humans has a conscious or unconscious climate input into it, it was built to suit what those who designed and built it considered it needed to withstand.


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## wayneL (8 July 2021)

I thought coal stocks were way oversold due to the China panic and the AGW narrative.

Averaged in a spread of stocks in the sector... I reckon a few might even be keepers as the narrative self destructs over time, have reserved a space in the bottom drawer for some of them.


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## Smurf1976 (9 July 2021)

wayneL said:


> I thought coal stocks were way oversold



There's certainly been a good trading opportunity with some of them, no question there.


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## qldfrog (9 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> There's certainly been a good trading opportunity with some of them, no question there.



I am thinking exactly the same, even if CC is real, sooner or later, the reality will have to take over the narrative, so our government will have slowed down new oil explorations, coal mines etc while the demand will continue unabated..perfect conditions for an increase of price.
Coal and oil, in area where they are not subject to punitive ideological laws.
Whole countries benefiting from self inflicted West destruction: China, Russia, India and associates


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## qldfrog (9 July 2021)

Be aware of the actual locations of the headquarters: long term, an aussie based coal miner might have to close down its business even if the mine is in png or indonesia. See how BHP has no choice but to leave the field to O/S companies, losing billions on opportunity costs


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## basilio (24 July 2021)

Somehow, someway the Scomo government needs to recognise that climate change can only be tackled with a commitment to massive de- carbonisation and a new  renewable energy industrial base.  This report might give him the ammunition to take that step.
Having spent a decade framing emissions reduction in apocalyptic terms, the Coalition now has to present different facts​Katharine Murphy



If Scott Morrison is inclined to execute the pivot he’s spent months telegraphing – towards net zero by 2050 – a report out this week contains some helpful fodder


The federal government led by Scott Morrison hopes to have something concrete to say at the Cop26 in Glasgow in November. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
Sat 24 Jul 2021 06.00 AEST
Last modified on Sat 24 Jul 2021 09.16 AEST

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...s-to-present-different-climate-facts#comments
258
With 14 million people in lockdown and the news in Sydney going from bad to worse, and with Scott Morrison steadfastly avoiding an apology for moving too slowly on vaccinations until the moment the word sorry crossed his lips, all eyes were on the pandemic.
This was a week where any other interesting insights sank like a stone, so let’s clear some space for one of the lost insights.

On Tuesday, the group Beyond Zero Emissions released a report based on economic analysis from ACIL Allen. This work found that establishing renewable energy industrial precincts in two Australian regions would create 45,000 new jobs and generate revenue of $13bn a year by 2032. The two regions the report identified were the Hunter in New South Wales and Gladstone in central Queensland. If you follow politics closely, you’ll know these regions will be heavily contested at the next federal election.

In the world envisaged by this report, dedicated renewable energy zones would support energy intensive businesses during the transition to low emissions. I might need to repeat that sentence because the Coalition has spent more than a decade telling Australians that renewables and heavy industry are fundamentally incompatible.

*In case that cacophony of mendacity has messed with your cognition, allow me to repeat: new renewable energy industrial precincts would be created to support activity like aluminium smelting, hydrogen and chemical production and manufacturing for the new energy economy. This conversation is about re-industrialising Australia for the low emissions global economy, using the existing industrial precincts that have been domestic employers and export powerhouses for generations because these regions have skilled workers, deepwater ports, existing transport infrastructure, and access to renewable energy resources.*

The report says a renewable precinct in the Hunter could unlock new capital investment of $28bn in the region, including $8.6bn for storage/firming capacity, as well as transmission lines, freight networks and renewable hydrogen infrastructure and export facilities. There is an aluminium smelter in the Hunter, which the report notes will need 800-900 megawatts of firmed energy.

In Gladstone, which has Australia’s second largest aluminium smelter (at Boyne Island), the analysis points to new manufacturing activities attracting additional capital investment of $7.8bn to the region, including $1.7bn for key infrastructure such as storage and firming facilities.

If Morrison is inclined to execute the pivot he’s spent months telegraphing – the creep towards a net zero commitment by 2050 – this week’s report contains some helpful fodder. Forecasting the future is always a function of inputs and outputs, with a heavy overlay of uncertainty. But drilling into the opportunities for two industrialised regions that sit on the frontline of Australia’s deranged carbon wars marks a welcome break from the weaponised hyper-partisan windbaggery about the costs of the transition.









						After framing emissions reduction in apocalyptic terms, the Coalition must now present different facts | Katharine Murphy
					

If Scott Morrison is inclined to execute the pivot he’s spent months telegraphing – towards net zero by 2050 – a report out this week contains some helpful fodder




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Jack Aubrey (26 July 2021)

The Carbon Border Tax debate is heating up with both the EU and US raising the issue in international forums.  I expect this will get serious after the next COP (which is less than 100 days away).  (See THIS LINK for some recent commentary)

I have seen some analysis suggesting that the major impacts on Australian exports will be indirect.  This is because we don't export a lot of energy intensive products to Europe or the US.  Flow-on impacts on our exports to India, SE Asia and possibly China may be more significant.

Can anyone identify companies or investments that would be impacted early?


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## Dona Ferentes (4 August 2021)

TPG has amassed private equity's largest war chest dedicated to technology aiming to curb climate change amid a growing scramble by investors drawn to one of the world's foremost global challenges. *Texas-based TPG *said Tuesday it has landed* $5.4 billion *in funding for the first close of its new *Rise Climate Fund, *and is still targeting a total of $7 billion, up from an initial goal of $5 billion. Hank Paulson, formerly a Treasury secretary and CEO of Goldman Sachs, serves as executive chairman of the fund.

On the same day (26 July), *Brookfield Asset Management *announced the initial closing of a *$7 billion* climate-focused fund that has a goal of achieving a net-zero carbon economy. Dubbed the *Brookfield Global Transition Fund, *the vehicle will be hard-capped at $12.5 billion. If it meets its target, the fund would be the largest devoted to climate sustainability, according to PitchBookdata.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 August 2021)

from CXL presentation

*Growing legislative pressures and incentives continue*
… Our initial target markets, the EU and US, have made significant moves in the last two months…
*EU update ...  July 2021 *
• CO2 EU ETS permit price doubles since 2019 to over €55/tonne
• EU introduces even more strict / ambitious targets in draft legislation
•55% reduction by 2030 from 1990 levels
•Maritime shipping to be included for the first time in CO2 caps

_*USA update  May–June 2021 *_
• Various Acts (tax credits) being introduced into congress and senate looking to increase Enhanced Oil Recovery - EOR to $US50 - 60 and Geological formations storage  - GS to US$85 / tonne CO2 + min. facility size dropped to 10kTpa, claimable out to 20 years


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## basilio (10 August 2021)

_Around 15 years ago at ASF I was one of a small number at this site explaining the problems of CC and advocating an understanding of the science. Way back then I used the word "*catastrophic*" in relation to what was ahead.

Despite what you and I believe to be true there remains a lot of people who are still saying "it's just weather". 

Comparatively few of us are *currently "suffering" *the everyday effects of climate change as they are mostly transient... like bushfires and floods that skeptics wave away.  Attribution remains problematic irrespective of the trend having been obvious for decades.
That said, I agree with all your points.

But as @explod points out, we're relatively fine on the way out, but not those coming after us.  Red Rob_

Redrob suggests that comparatively few of us are suffering from the every day effects of CC as  they mostly transient. I suggest from an investment and financial impact POV the reality is likely to be far more immediate and widespread.

1) The impact of the current fires and floods on insurance companies is formidable. What will be the impact on insurance costs ? Will insurance companies survive ? if so what will they cover ?

2) Almost certainly whole  swathes of property will become uninsurable for fire and flood in a short space of time. This would almost certainly destroy their economic value.  Banks won't loan against an uninsurable property for example.

3) CC is impacting on crops around the world. Russia is already reducing its export of wheat because of scorching weather.  It will take very little to undermine world food security.

4) The effect of CC catastrophes on countries will risk many failed states. How will our financial system fare with  these multiple collapses?

5) At what stage will institutions bring to book the CC eventualities  facing us ? Just to pick one example we have seen a waterfront apartment block collapse in Florida. The seas are rising and Florida is sinking. When will the fact that all the buildings on that foreshore are going to *inevitably *soon become uninhabitable be acknowledged? And this will be repeated across millions and millions of sea side property.

We know from experience that businesses and individuals don't highlight market failures willingly. Far easier to try and sell them on.  But that is not going to be possible in the near future IMV.


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## divs4ever (10 August 2021)

Jack Aubrey said:


> The Carbon Border Tax debate is heating up with both the EU and US raising the issue in international forums.  I expect this will get serious after the next COP (which is less than 100 days away).  (See THIS LINK for some recent commentary)
> 
> I have seen some analysis suggesting that the major impacts on Australian exports will be indirect.  This is because we don't export a lot of energy intensive products to Europe or the US.  Flow-on impacts on our exports to India, SE Asia and possibly China may be more significant.
> 
> Can anyone identify companies or investments that would be impacted early?




 those handling accountancy and money transfers  should be positively impacted  possibly some legal firms as well ( think of it as an extra layer of taxation/regulation )

 since there seems to be little of this collected tax  being reinvested in research into better energy utilization or storage  , i assume the extra cost burden  will leak into inflationary pressures ( like GST did )   whereas greater efficiency in energy use/creation  would have tended to reduce production cost rises 

 how will the market react .. who knows , it is basically dancing around in Fantasyland  now ( or is that Wally World ?? )


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## Joules MM1 (29 August 2021)

Greenlandic rock-flour - New research shows that Greenlandic rock-flour significantly enhances plant growth
					

Ilisimatusarfik | Grønlands Universitet | University of Greenland




					uk.uni.gl
				




excerpt
GREENLANDIC ROCK-FLOUR - NEW RESEARCH SHOWS THAT GREENLANDIC ROCK-FLOUR SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCES PLANT GROWTH​08.09.2021 - 09.09.2021

Every year, billions of tons of rock-flour is washed out with melt water from the glaciers of Greenland. There is a near infinite amounts of the material, and its high content of mineral nutrients can be part of the solution to the climate crisis and bio-diversities grand challenges. Rock-flour has the potential to improve food security for all of us.

Professor Minik Rosing has over the past three years - in collaboration with the Novo Nordisk Foundation - investigated the properties of the Greenlandic rock-flour and carried out growth experiments in Ghana and Denmark. These experiments show that crop productivity can be improved significantly by the administration of rock-flour to the soil, and that the positive effect is sustained through several growth seasons.

Minik Rosing states: "_We have been positively surprised by the high increase in crop yield we see when we fertilize with Greenlandic rock-flour on the experimental plots in Ghana and Denmark. Actually, the effect increases year by year at least into the third growth season in the Ghana-plots where we have grown maize. What initially started out as an idea has now proven to be reality: Greenlandic rock-flour works!_"

There is so much of this ultra fine-grained rock-flour in one lake by the Nuuk Fjord that it could improve the nutritional value of all agricultural lands south of Sahara in Africa.


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## qldfrog (30 August 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> Greenlandic rock-flour - New research shows that Greenlandic rock-flour significantly enhances plant growth
> 
> 
> Ilisimatusarfik | Grønlands Universitet | University of Greenland
> ...



Good point @Joules MM1 , i am into proper agriculture: regenerative cattle farming, and permaculture:
Rock dust is a valuable real plant food and catalyst.
Many do not realise that most modern food production is oil based, meaning that we use nature to transform xx litres of oil into n kg of cereals.without oil so fossil fuels, we can not feed our 8 billions population as we do now.
And i am not talking about machinery diesel or storage cooling...
It is so high that i read somewhere that bio fuel..ethanol where corn or wheat is used to create fuel is actually negative.. consuming more fuel than producing...
There is a serious wakeup call to add to this no fossil fuels mantra.
Is there a "mining" company tapping this Rock dust in Greenland?


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## basilio (30 August 2021)

Big Business wants the Federal Government to commit to zero emissions by 2020. They are demanding leadership to enable a clear set of investment guidelines.









						Australia's biggest companies want Australia to urgently commit to net zero carbon emissions by 2050
					

The Lendlease chairman says the federal government needs to urgently step up in the global fight to combat climate change and commit to reducing pollution to net zero by 2050.




					www.abc.net.au


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## divs4ever (30 August 2021)

the way Lendlease is  going , they will easily comply  , they are unlikely to still be in business  , they will be too busy hiding from shareholders 

 ( i hold LLC )


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## Jack Aubrey (1 September 2021)

Can someone explain the BHP - Woodside deal to me?  I get that BHP is edging away from potentially stranded fossil fuel assets (plus making it more suitable as an "ethical" investment) but what's in it for Woodside shareholders longer-term?  Is this simply a case of (very) different perceptions of risk or is there some 3D chess move that insulates Woodside?  I know that some are now relying on the Government subsidies to ease the withdrawal from coal, but I can't see that happening in any sustainable way.


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## qldfrog (1 September 2021)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Can someone explain the BHP - Woodside deal to me?  I get that BHP is edging away from potentially stranded fossil fuel assets (plus making it more suitable as an "ethical" investment) but what's in it for Woodside shareholders longer-term?  Is this simply a case of (very) different perceptions of risk or is there some 3D chess move that insulates Woodside?  I know that some are now relying on the Government subsidies to ease the withdrawal from coal, but I can't see that happening in any sustainable way.



One word: narrative..
I invite you to look at strategic decisions by BHP in the last 20y.
Coal selling, shale gas investing/divesting ,S32 and now oil divesting.
look at the "success" of these....
Where was bhp 20y ago vs Rio, Fmg..
Pathetic so based on history a bad deal for BHP..and a good one for Woodside if they can manage it...not a given


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## basilio (6 September 2021)

The  implications of climate change, rising sea levels and the effects on houses near the sea have been raised often.
The particular question is not when sea levels will rise to the point of undermining  houses *but when insurance companies will refuse to insure properties for such forseeable consequences.* When properties become uninsurable they also become very hard to buy or sell. 

Excellent story on the ABC outlining how this is already happening. Well worth considering for people with  direct or indirect financial interest in sea side properties. Or perhaps seaside apartments ?

I think there are implications here for banks making loans to people whose properties are currently in danger of sea level rises.

Beautiful one day, uninsurable the next?​There’s a long history of adaptation on the Queensland coast — but our changing climate could soon make it harder to get a mortgage there.









						It's already hard to buy a house on the Queensland coast — and climate change is about to make it worse
					

Our changing climate could soon make it harder to get a mortgage on the Queensland coast. We had three properties assessed, with mixed results.




					www.abc.net.au


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## Jack Aubrey (6 September 2021)

basilio said:


> The  implications of climate change, rising sea levels and the effects on houses near the sea have been raised often.
> The particular question is not when sea levels will rise to the point of undermining  houses *but when insurance companies will refuse to insure properties for such forseeable consequences.* When properties become uninsurable they also become very hard to buy or sell.
> 
> Excellent story on the ABC outlining how this is already happening. Well worth considering for people with  direct or indirect financial interest in sea side properties. Or perhaps seaside apartments ?
> ...



Pretty much as expected.  When I first started taking an interest in climate change issues in the 1990s, several economists I knew theorised that "endogenous adaptation" (ie. change without government intervention), would be the most efficient way to adapt to change - insurance companies and banks were central to this idea.

I don't entirely agree because there will be substantial inequities in this process, with the rich, well connected and well informed able to pass on costs to others, either directly or via government subsidies and bail outs.  We are seeing this in some industries at the moment - using their tame politicians to soften up the public for big subsidies "to keep the lights on".


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## basilio (7 September 2021)

This is a very rosy eyed view of dealing with CC.  Just electrify everything! I agree with the principle .  But it certainly isn't that simple. There is so much more that has to be done on the way.

However it is an encouraging energetic  direction.









						How 'electrifying everything' could be a quick win for the climate — and the economy
					

Australia could rapidly get most of the way to net zero emissions by using existing technology to electrify "low-hanging fruit", according to some experts — and with minimal disruption for most people.




					www.abc.net.au


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## divs4ever (7 September 2021)

but of course electricity  just grows  on trees and blows in the wind to spread across the nation 

 SIGH , but i saw this 'instant gratification' mentality coming about two decades ago 

 all fun and games until a switch fails


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## basilio (7 September 2021)

basilio said:


> This is a very rosy eyed view of dealing with CC.  Just electrify everything! I agree with the principle .  But it certainly isn't that simple. There is so much more that has to be done on the way.
> 
> However it is an encouraging energetic  direction.
> 
> ...




I didn't know enough about Saul Griffiths and his work when I made that comment.

He is one seriously effective inventor/researcher/entrepreneur. Worth checking out IMV. The detail of his work in Rewiring America is very. very impressive.




__





						Rewiring America - Rewiring America
					

The path to zero emissions requires household electrification. Legislation is being proposed, but it needs your help.




					www.rewiringamerica.org
				











						Rogue Inventor Saul Griffith Is Radicalizing R&D — With Inflatable Arms
					

Saul Griffith, founder of Squid Labs, Makani Power, Instructables, and Otherlab, is the World's Most Wired Rogue Engineer.




					www.wired.com
				







__





						About Us - Rewiring America
					

Rewiring America is the leading electrification nonprofit working to electrify our homes, businesses and communities.




					www.rewiringamerica.org


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## Smurf1976 (7 September 2021)

basilio said:


> This is a very rosy eyed view of dealing with CC. Just electrify everything! I agree with the principle . But it certainly isn't that simple. There is so much more that has to be done on the way.



Electrification can't of itself fix things like emissions from agriculture and waste disposal but it most certainly can get fossil fuels out of the energy supply chain, indeed it's the most plausible way to do it.

Electricity is electricity is electricity so long as demand and supply are matched in real time. Anything from a century old hydro station through to a brand new solar installation or nuclear plant does the exact same thing in terms of the end result. 

Good ole' Lake Margaret power station in Tassie, the oldest fully operational power station in Australia, is perfectly capable of charging your iPhone yes - that the machinery in power station pre-dates computers, TV and even AM radio is no barrier there. 107 years after it commenced production and the machines are still roaring away quite nicely. It doesn't generate much power that's true but the point stands - electricity is electricity so long as it's available when you want it.

That "universal currency" aspect of it is what makes electrification the key. Unlike, say, jet fuel or natural gas where the product is a chemical one and has to meet exact specifications to be safe and usable, it's comparatively easy to get electricity to exactly meet a standard specification such that any resource can run any end use.


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## basilio (7 September 2021)

I found an excellent analysis from Saul Griffiths on electrification of the US.
He has no delusions about what is required to ,somehow, avert the worst effects of global heating.
Offers an excellent mathematical/technical outline of what we need to do..  

Well worth checking out. This is a privately posted video.


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## basilio (14 September 2021)

*Rising sea levels  and 20 story beach side apartments.  A match made in purgatory and then hell.*

The collapse of the Champlain Towers condo in Florida  a few weeks ago has focused attention on the immediate reality of rising sea levels. The move is on and once fashionable  condos are being deserted and the new  investment focus is surprise, surprise, buying up inland  properties that are currently poor, cheap and  have 10 feet  more elevation than coast side condos.

I'm not sure how orderly this movement will be and how the old condos will actually be sold or insurable in a few years

Excellent in depth story.









						Why Miami’s prime beachfront real estate may soon be left to the city’s poorest residents
					

As sea level rise creeps higher in Miami, prime beach real estate is losing its cachet, pushing developers to snap up properties further inland. For residents in those historically marginalised communities, displacement is imminent.




					www.abc.net.au


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## Jack Aubrey (14 September 2021)

basilio said:


> *Rising sea levels  and 20 story beach side apartments.  A match made in purgatory and then hell.*
> 
> The collapse of the Champlain Towers condo in Florida  a few weeks ago has focused attention on the immediate reality of rising sea levels. The move is on and once fashionable  condos are being deserted and the new  investment focus is surprise, surprise, buying up inland  properties that are currently poor, cheap and  have 10 feet  more elevation than coast side condos.
> 
> ...



As an interesting (possibly) aside, I did a desktop study a few years ago on what impact a 1 metre sea level rise would have on the area of the southern NSW coast around Tuross Lake (I was interested in buying into the area).  It is not (yet) an area where there are many multi-storey buildings at all. While only a handful of properties would suffer permanent inundation, many more would have been critically affected by storm surge.  The big issue however was infrastructure.  Access roads would be cut at several points, leaving the whole settlement as a "stranded asset".  I doubt the area would generate enough in rates and taxes to cover the cost of substantial new roads and bridges - which would be true of many areas directly affected by even a modest sea-level rise.  

A similar exercise is possible with maps already supplied by the planners for Brisbane using the past few major levels as a guide.  Many street in many low-lying suburbs would be toast (soggy toast, anyway).


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## basilio (14 September 2021)

Jack Aubrey said:


> As an interesting (possibly) aside, I did a desktop study a few years ago on what impact a 1 metre sea level rise would have on the area of the southern NSW coast around Tuross Lake (I was interested in buying into the area).  It is not (yet) an area where there are many multi-storey buildings at all. While only a handful of properties would suffer permanent inundation, many more would have been critically affected by storm surge.  The big issue however was infrastructure. * Access roads would be cut at several points, leaving the whole settlement as a "stranded asset".*  I doubt the area would generate enough in rates and taxes to cover the cost of substantial new roads and bridges - which would be true of many areas directly affected by even a modest sea-level rise.
> 
> A similar exercise is possible with maps already supplied by the planners for Brisbane using the past few major levels as a guide.  *Many street in many low-lying suburbs would be toast (soggy toast, anyway).*




Absolutely.  I don't lay awake at night thinking about the "stranded assets " issue of rising sea levels any more. Frankly it's too ugly. But realistically, not thinking about it won't make it go away.

As you note Jack, storm surge will affect properties and their economic viability way before inundation. The collapse of critical infrastructure in low lying areas will impact the liveability of whole cities.

For example I have not yet heard of a realistic solution to the effects of rising sea levels on sewage plants which by definition are at sea level. There are plenty of papers that identify and research the issue. But realistic solutions ? Particularly when sea levels will continue to rise ?









						Sea Level Rise Threatens Hundreds of Wastewater Treatment Plants - Eos
					

Untreated sewage could affect 5 times more people than direct flooding, a new study shows.




					eos.org


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## basilio (17 September 2021)

MIning Industry getting creative.

They are trying to work out how t electrify their mining processes. So any budding/experienced  engineers out there - Hop to it.!









						Industry leaders challenge electric mine design - Australian Mining
					

Major miners such as OZ Minerals, IGO, South 32 and Evolution Mining have launched the Electric Mine Simulation challenge.




					www.australianmining.com.au


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## basilio (28 September 2021)

Came across an analysis of how we can move very swiftly to 90% reduction of carbon emissions world wide by 2035.  
What is fascinating from an investment POV is the way we can achieve this goal through technology that is already available.  The story outlines the new investment areas that will be critical in this move.

Also saw a recent presentation from Elon Musk on CC. Doesn't pull any punches. Obviously he is intent on being a key mover in electrification and  developing renewable energy .


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## basilio (10 October 2021)

Part of the critical conversations about moving Australia rapidly to a post carbon future is
1) How will all the pieces fit together ?
2)  Where will our future jobs come from ?
3) What are the new investment opportunities we need to pursue ?

In outback Queensland there is a renewable energy hub being developed which addresses these issues. Really excellent analysis of the  land, energy,conservation and farming issues we need to address and how this project can create a powerful synergy.

Should be  well appreciated by National farmer networks looking to keep their busineses thriving.









						How versatile is a piece of charcoal? Two brothers and a 'left field' business idea set to reenergise an outback town
					

An outback town in Queensland is looking toward a renewable energy resurgence thanks to the brainchild of a leading economist.




					www.abc.net.au


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## basilio (14 October 2021)

This is a fascinating story.  Essentially details a Swedish city that is largely built using plywood.  The focus is a 20 Story skyscraper built from wood.

The engineering details are impressive. It is also a highly practical build that seems well sorted techniclaly and very caapble of being easily replicated.

Isn’t it good, Swedish plywood: the miraculous eco-town with a 20-storey wooden skyscraper​



*Stronger than steel …* the Sara Cultural Centre topped with the Wood Hotel. Photograph: Jonas Westling
Skellefteå has wooden schools, bridges, even car parks. And now it has one of the world’s tallest wooden buildings. We visit Sweden to see what a climate-conscious future looks like



Oliver Wainwright

@ollywainwright
Thu 14 Oct 2021 16.00 AEDT
https://www.theguardian.com/artandd...rey-wooden-skyscraper-worlds-tallest#comments
129
As you come in to land at Skellefteå airport in the far north of Sweden, you are greeted by a wooden air traffic control tower poking up from an endless forest of pine and spruce. After boarding a biogas bus into town, you glide past wooden apartment blocks and wooden schools, cross a wooden road bridge and pass a wooden multistorey car park, before finally reaching the centre, now home to one of the tallest new wooden buildings in the world.
“We are not the wood Taliban,” says Bo Wikström, from Skellefteå’s tourism agency, as he leads a group of visitors on a “wood safari” of its buildings. “Other materials are allowed.” But why build in anything else – when you’re surrounded by 480,000 hectares of forest?









						Isn’t it good, Swedish plywood: the miraculous eco-town with a 20-storey wooden skyscraper
					

Skellefteå has wooden schools, bridges, even car parks. And now it has one of the world’s tallest wooden buildings. We visit Sweden to see what a climate-conscious future looks like




					www.theguardian.com


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## Knobby22 (21 October 2021)

The EU has decided to forge ahead with border carbon tarriffs - easy to see  who they are thinking of targeting.
Dan Tehan is aggressively warning the NATs that we will be in trouble if they don't step up.

Could this result in the fall of the $A?


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## basilio (21 October 2021)

Twiggy Forrest isn't the only  business tycoon pushing rapid de carbonisation industries.​Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes sells economic benefits of green investment with $1.5b pledge​ABC Illawarra
 / By Justin Huntsdale
Posted 3h ago3 hours ago


 Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes will spread his investment across a number of industries.(Reuters: Daniel Munoz)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article



From his home in the New South Wales Southern Highlands, Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has his eyes firmly focused on the future of regional Australia.
Key points:​
Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes and his wife will invest $1.5b in an effort to help fight climate change
He says regional areas stand to benefit greatly from green investments that will create jobs and boost the economy
Mr Cannon-Brookes says private industry and individuals need to share the responsibility with the government

The chief executive of the technology giant not only sees enormous potential of environmental investments — he thinks he knows the best way to sell them.
"The decarbonisation of the planet is the biggest economic opportunity for Australia over the next 20 years," he told ABC Radio Sydney's Breakfast program.
"Things like the creation of jobs, improvement in the standard of living and growth of our economy — but we have to make changes to take advantage of that, otherwise it will be taken advantage of by other nations and economies.









						Australia's third-richest person to invest $1.5b in fight against climate change
					

Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes says he's putting up the huge sum in a bid to help dramatically reduce carbon emissions by 2030.




					www.abc.net.au


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## basilio (17 January 2022)

The reality of the effects of rising sea levels on Australian coastal properties is becoming much clearer.  The effects on property prices and banks holding mortgages on these houses  is highlighted.

_If home-buyers aren't worried, the nation's financial institutions certainly are. In September, the Reserve Bank of Australia released a report warning property values in climate change hot spots could soon take a hit, leaving banks vulnerable in the case of default. 

It warned that about 3.5 per cent of dwellings in Australia already fell under the international definition of "high-risk", but that long-term climate change risk wasn't being reflected in property values. South-east Queensland and northern New South Wales had the largest number of homes at risk of coastal inundation, the report found.









						'We've worked our whole life, this is our family home': What the future of climate change means for coastal property owners
					

For decades, Australians have happily paid a premium for their very own piece of coastline. But with up to a metre of sea-level rise all but locked in by the end of the century, will waterfront living remain a viable option?




					www.abc.net.au
				











						Climate Change Risks to Australian Banks | Bulletin – September Quarter 2021
					

Climate change affects banks because of the impact it has on the value of assets used as collateral for loans and the incomes borrowers’ use to repay their loans.




					www.rba.gov.au
				



_


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## basilio (28 February 2022)

Australia is in the middle of another La Nina event on top of relentless global warming. The consequence has been a slightly cooler summer with  unprecedented rains.  Queensland and NSW now face calamitous floods.

The consequences for the insurance industry  firstly and then all insurance holders will be be grim.








						Brisbane River falling with evening tide as SES reassures Lismore that waters are receding — as it happened
					

The Brisbane River is falling with the tide after peaking at 3.5m overnight, but is expected to reach 3.7m in the morning, while Lismore floodwaters are receding after peaking short of the worst-case scenario.




					www.abc.net.au


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## basilio (1 March 2022)

*Talking about Insurance.*

Just received  my  house insurance renewal today.  No changes in property since 2019, These are the premiums (rounded)
So what do we think will happen when this years floods on the East Coast and bushfires in Perth are calculated ?

2019    $601
2020    $738
2021    $895
2022    $1076

And let's we clear about what is driving these increases.









						Climate scientists warn global heating means Australia facing more catastrophic storms and floods
					

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says climate effects expected to be more severe than initially predicted




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (1 March 2022)

The real catastrophe for people will be when they can no longer get insurance or premiums reach 3% plus of property value.

How many property owners could afford a $18,000 premium on a $600k house ?  What is going to happen to Gold Coast properties  for example?









						Gold Coast flood damage cost nears Cyclone Debbie figures
					

Flood risks remain in place on the Gold Coast's north, as hundreds remain stranded just south of the border and an estimated 20,000 households are affected by flooding across the state.




					www.abc.net.au


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## JohnDe (1 March 2022)

basilio said:


> *Talking about Insurance.*
> 
> Just received  my  house insurance renewal today.  No changes in property since 2019, These are the premiums (rounded)
> So what do we think will happen when this years floods on the East Coast and bushfires in Perth are calculated ?
> ...




A few other items to add- 

property value increase rose 21.7% over the last twelve months.
building cost increase  national increase of 3.8% was recorded in the three months to September 2021
Shoppers will be paying higher prices for home appliances


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## basilio (7 March 2022)

What will happen to the economy if our natural environment systems fail ? Can be go totally virtual ? Set up a new colony on Mars?  Go into deep freeze for 10,000 years and then wake up in a revived world cleansed of all our negativity  ?

Or perhaps change focus, change direction and work like hell to leave a semblance of a functioning eco system for our children ? 

Our Planet: Too Big To Fail​Our economy is fundamentally underpinned by the stability and the resilience of the natural world. But this stability is no longer guaranteed. Our Planet: Too Big To Fail is a 42 minute film that explores the risks of inaction, the impact of investing-as-usual, and the role the finance sector can play in powering a sustainable future.









						Our Planet: Too Big To Fail
					

Our economy is fundamentally underpinned by the stability and the resilience of the natural world. But this stability is no longer guaranteed. This film explores the risks of inaction, the impact of investing-as-usual, and the role the finance sector can play powering a sustainable future.




					www.ourplanet.com


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## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2022)

> “Powering just four key manufacturing sectors – steel, cement, ammonia and alumina – with clean electricity and hydrogen will require Australia to more than double its total electricity generation”



_Ben Eade, CEO, Manufacturing Australia_


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## basilio (22 March 2022)

CC caused bushfires are impacting on insurance again.
Now it seems plantation timber is virtually uninsurable.  Big implications for future of timber industry and local construction.

Plantation timber insurance unaffordable for growers after Black Summer fires​ABC Rural
 / 
By Angus Mackintosh
Posted 4h ago4 hours ago, updated 4h ago4 hours ago


  Even after a devastating fire, insuring these trees wouldn't have helped after premiums "quadrupled" in price, according to Andy Wright.(ABC News: Angus Mackintosh)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article



A year ago, forester Andy Wright let the insurance lapse on his softwood plantation in Denmark, Western Australia. 
Key points:​
Many timber plantations across Australia are uninsured after price hikes and an exodus of insurers from the industry
Experts warn it puts Australia's timber supply at serious risk after a decade-long stagnation in new plantations
An insurance scheme is in the works for next season, but the fire risk is growing









						Premiums 'quadruple', timber plantations unprotected as insurers flee bushfire-stricken forests
					

As insurance premiums skyrocket and insurers refuse coverage to fire-prone timber plantations, experts warn the consequences could be felt far beyond the forestry industry.




					www.abc.net.au


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## orr (22 March 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _Ben Eade, CEO, Manufacturing Australia_



good lets get on with it....










						The staggering numbers behind Australia’s green energy opportunity
					

Australia could slash emissions across the Asia Pacific by switching to zero emissions exports and 2,700 per cent renewables, ANU researchers say.




					reneweconomy.com.au
				




And so......2x eletricity  production ......??

The ANU ((_young starry eyed(leftist) students, yet unaware of the ways of the world. And their ivory tower(commo) professors_)) have got the  scope up for *27X *of renewable prospects.

And seemingly end on end, at every chance 'The Money' gets to invest in renewables it's over-subcribed by ( the hard nosed pin striped bean counters of ) Private Capital.

So go Angus/gas, go Kieth/coal, go Matt(not Keane), go Clive/ aka '_FMcFH' _&  go 'the MCA'(that's *not* 'the Manufacturing Council of Australia) & thank the good Christ  MP.G.Christensen is as good as gone.....  just go.      
And I do mean go. You've had your run: A far to long one...
 Now  Get the FCUK  out of the way.


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## basilio (3 May 2022)

The issue of CC effects on the  housing market, the banking sector, the insurance industry  and the roof over peoples heads is not going away. Plenty of evidence already of  uninsurable properties and locations as bushfires and floods have taken their toll.

Latest analysis which will underpin insurance markets is grim.

Climate change means 1 in 25 homes could become uninsurable by 2030, report warns​








						Your home could be 'uninsurable' by 2030. Here are the top 10 electorates most at risk
					

Australia is going to face an "insurability crisis" in under a decade as climate change forces insurance premiums to "skyrocket", a report from the Climate Council warns.




					www.abc.net.au


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## basilio (3 May 2022)

If we think we have problems with human created global warming , then spare a thought for what is happening in India and Pakistan right now. The social and economic impact is already dire.

‘We are living in hell’: Pakistan and India suffer extreme spring heatwaves​April temperatures at unprecedented levels have led to critical water and electricity shortages

For the past few weeks, Nazeer Ahmed has been living in one of the hottest places on Earth. As a brutal heatwave has swept across India and Pakistan, his home in Turbat, in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, has been suffering through weeks of temperatures that have repeatedly hit almost 50C (122F), unprecedented for this time of year. Locals have been driven into their homes, unable to work except during the cooler night hours, and are facing critical shortages of water and power.

Ahmed fears that things are only about to get worse. It was here, in 2021, that the world’s highest temperature for May was recorded, a staggering 54C. This year, he said, feels even hotter. “Last week was insanely hot in Turbat. It did not feel like April,” he said.

As the heatwave has exacerbated massive energy shortages across India and Pakistan, Turbat, a city of about 200,000 residents, now barely receives any electricity, with up to nine hours of load shedding every day, meaning that air conditioners and refrigerators cannot function. “We are living in hell,” said Ahmed.

..*. The heatwave has already had a devastating impact on crops, including wheat and various fruits and vegetables. In India, the yield from wheat crops has dropped by up to 50% in some of the areas worst hit by the extreme temperatures, worsening fears of global shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has already had a devastating impact on supplies.*

In Balochistan’s Mastung district, known for its apple and peach orchards, the harvests have been decimated. Haji Ghulam Sarwar Shahwani, a farmer, watched in anguish as his apple trees blossomed more than a month early, and then despair as the blossom sizzled and then died in the unseasonal dry heat, almost killing off his entire crop. Farmers in the area also spoke of a “drastic” impact on their wheat crops, while the area has also recently been subjected to 18-hour power cuts.

*“This is the first time the weather has wreaked such havoc on our crops in this area,” Shahwani said. “We don’t know what to do and there is no government help. The cultivation has decreased; now very few fruits grow. Farmers have lost billions because of this weather. We are suffering and we can’t afford it.”









						‘We are living in hell’: Pakistan and India suffer extreme spring heatwaves
					

April temperatures at unprecedented levels have led to critical water and electricity shortages




					www.theguardian.com
				



*


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## Dona Ferentes (22 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics..... *Investment Implications of Climate Change*: (and this is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused),



Now the "Climate Action ... NOW" crowd have made their electoral play and, amid the empty rhetoric and polarising nonsense, look like they will influence policy in the incoming Albanese government, it's time to see how we can help the wooden-headed and woke.



Dona Ferentes said:


> I am sure there are many ... listed stocks in the space...  these are just ideas.



These were ideas that I put into investments and have banked 6-figure benefits (realised and unrealised). With a new government, I will be looking at policy tilts to see if my self-funded future can assist/ be assisted in reaching new aspirational targets. Hope the new crowd don't turn out to be watermelons.

And that's about it for election comment from me.


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## wayneL (24 May 2022)

HSBC's view, FWIW


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## Sean K (3 June 2022)

Some pretty big CAPEX numbers here if we're going to meet emissions targets. I think any short term weaknesses in miners for these critical metals will just be opportunities in the mid-long term if we are going to continue down the path of electrification.












						Metals shortages ahead, net-zero targets at risk - BofA
					





					www.kitco.com


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## basilio (10 June 2022)

IMV one of the very real risks around the effects of CC is the exponential  growth  in  property/infrastructure damage caused by extreme weather conditions and consequent effects on insurance costs and cover.  

Another example of this reality is coming out with the Alpine regions  facing huge insurance hikes as a result of the bushfires a couple of years ago.

Insurance costs could rise by more than 1,000 per cent for Victorian alpine businesses​ABC Goulburn Murray
 / By Mikaela Ortolan
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 2h ago2 hours ago


 Insurance costs have risen by up to 800 per cent for some businesses on Mount Hotham.(ABC Goulburn Murray: Katherine Smyrke)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article



The feeling on Mount Hotham is pure excitement and joy that businesses are back open and finally able to operate at full capacity after the industry was decimated by COVID.
Key points:​
*Insurance costs have risen by up to 800 per cent for some businesses on Mount Hotham*
The price hike is a result of the Black Summer bushfires
Staff shortages and lack of accommodation for workers are adding to the stress

But underneath the smiling faces of operators ready to embrace what is tipped to be a bumper season is anxiety and fear of what the future holds.

Mount Hotham Chamber of Commerce president Steve Belli said the cost of insurance for businesses has increased by up to 800 per cent in the past three years.


> "I know of one lodge that started off at about $13,000 in 2018–19 and then moved up to $122,000 in 2022," he said.













						'Nightmare waiting to happen' for ski operators as snow season gets underway
					

Amid a bumper snow season, operators face rising insurance costs of up to 800 per cent as a result of the Black Summer bushfires, which burnt through around 187,000 hectares of the alpine area.




					www.abc.net.au


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## SirRumpole (12 September 2022)

Steel skyscrapers could be on the way out to be replaced with wooden ones.

This video examines in good depth the various costs and benefits of a new construction methods for large buildings.


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## qldfrog (12 September 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Steel skyscrapers could be on the way out to be replaced with wooden ones.
> 
> This video examines in good depth the various costs and benefits of a new construction methods for large buildings.




And great for gdp, replace every 30y...not to think about the fire engineer horror scenario


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## wayneL (12 September 2022)

With engineering places in unis now decided on the basis of diversity rather than merit, it won't matter, they will all fall over anyway. </hyperbolebutnotfarfromthetruth>


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## SirRumpole (12 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> And great for gdp, replace every 30y...not to think about the fire engineer horror scenario




Watch the video and you will find that the engineered wood is more fire resistant than steel.


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## qldfrog (12 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> And great for gdp, replace every 30y...not to think about the fire engineer horror scenario



And i know steel beams melt and hardwood can resist fire well but here we have to think engineered wood..and glue...


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## qldfrog (12 September 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Watch the video and you will find that the engineered wood is more fire resistant than steel.



I replied before your answer.apologies..change nothing: you remember these new claddings...
Will be same


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