# 1929 vs. Today?



## white_goodman (13 August 2009)

Hey there I was curious if someone knew where to find or where I could get the info to create a chart showing the percentage movements of the Dow from 29-33 compared to the percentage movements of the start of our crisis?

Ive seen one in the past comparing all 4 recessions in recent history however that was done a while ago...

cheers


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## Krusty the Klown (13 August 2009)

First stop might be the NYSE website.


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## white_goodman (13 August 2009)

found it, very very interesting

http://www.ridethegoldbull.com/images/howlowdow.pdf


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## jono1887 (13 August 2009)

white_goodman said:


> found it, very very interesting
> 
> http://www.ridethegoldbull.com/images/howlowdow.pdf




oh wow... scary thought. But a lot of factors have changed since then and  especially with the heavy support from the governments in the US and UK backing a lot of the financial institutions, I dont think it will get as bad as the one in 1929.

They DOW actually suffered a 90+% lost... that is a very scary thought


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## ThingyMajiggy (13 August 2009)

This one is quite interesting too...


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## Real1ty (13 August 2009)

I haven't really looked into it because we are in a different world now, so i wouldn't spend my time researching something like that but going from memory i think one of the things that was done around that time was to actually raise interest rates, rather than lower them.

Stand to be corrected and only going from memory, not research.


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## MACCA350 (13 August 2009)

Was it this one?







EDIT: Sam got in quicker

Kind of looks like the 1973 recovery
cheers


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## Buckeroo (13 August 2009)

jono1887 said:


> oh wow... scary thought. But a lot of factors have changed since then and  especially with the heavy support from the governments in the US and UK backing a lot of the financial institutions, I dont think it will get as bad as the one in 1929.
> 
> They DOW actually suffered a 90+% lost... that is a very scary thought




I wouldn't be so sure Jono1887 - yes, the support has done something that didn't happen in 29, that is, its not allowed debt to be washed out through major bankruptcies etc. 

We are still exposed to a total collapse of our financial system, nothings changed...and whats really scary...is that Governments now will be part of the collapse because of their own excessive debts. 

Cheers


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## white_goodman (13 August 2009)

Buckeroo said:


> I wouldn't be so sure Jono1887 - yes, the support has done something that didn't happen in 29, that is, its not allowed debt to be washed out through major bankruptcies etc.
> 
> We are still exposed to a total collapse of our financial system, nothings changed...and whats really scary...is that Governments now will be part of the collapse because of their own excessive debts.
> 
> Cheers




this!

the US economy is much more fragile today...

-fiat currency
-economic industry base isnt what it used to be, too much emphasis on tech and financials
- national debt growing exponentially


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## Buckeroo (13 August 2009)

white_goodman said:


> this!
> 
> the US economy is much more fragile today...
> 
> ...




So what if its fragile. It will become even more fragile for some of the reasons you have given until when? Whats the end game?

Your thinking maybe is that we have this enormous hole in the ship & because its so big, all we can do is to keep bailing even though the water keeps rising - no hope of repair?

Personally, I'd still rather attempt a repair because we may succeed. 

Cheers


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## jono1887 (14 August 2009)

I think all that is required for the US to plummet would be China selling of US Bonds and currency reserves.


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## white_goodman (14 August 2009)

Buckeroo said:


> So what if its fragile. It will become even more fragile for some of the reasons you have given until when? Whats the end game?
> 
> Your thinking maybe is that we have this enormous hole in the ship & because its so big, all we can do is to keep bailing even though the water keeps rising - no hope of repair?
> 
> ...




or let the little boat sink and build a new better boat, instead of repairing a sinking boat by making the hole bigger and reducing possiblities/resources of being able to build a whole new boat.


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## moXJO (14 August 2009)

jono1887 said:


> I think all that is required for the US to plummet would be China selling of US Bonds and currency reserves.




Is it true China has told the US to stop printing dollars, or they would start to sell off their holdings of bonds?
Or just internet bs?


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## Buckeroo (14 August 2009)

white_goodman said:


> or let the little boat sink and build a new better boat, instead of repairing a sinking boat by making the hole bigger and reducing possiblities/resources of being able to build a whole new boat.




Mmmmm, I like it - this I presume, would mean the demise of the US & its currency for something else.

Cheers


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## moreld (17 August 2009)

Wow, yet another thread with doom and gloom pictures comparing the Great Depression with our Great Bubble.
These comparative charts can be drawn to show almost exactly what you want. Have a look at mine and you'll see a much rosier picture.
http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/08/the-great-depression-vs-the-great-bubble/



Anyway, can someone point me to long term data for the ASX, monthly closing prices back to 1900ish would be great. TIA


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## moreld (17 August 2009)

I forgot to say
white_goodman rather than use other people's charts which are infused with their biases you should use the underlying data
Here is a link to Professor Shiller's data of the S&P 500
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm


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## trainspotter (17 August 2009)

IMO. I believe that the difference is that in 1929 the Governments allowed the corporations and the people to suffer the consequences. In this day and age they crank up the money printing press and bail out the good corporate citizens. Fancy turning up to the "hand out table" in your private jet asking the Govt. for billions of dollars to save the company. OOOOHHHH the irony of it. LOLOL Does the picture below look familiar ??


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## Prem (17 August 2009)

hey guys,

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16819

some good links to graphs and of the sort


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## jono1887 (17 August 2009)

I've done some reading... the govt back in 1929 did not have such great concepts of macroeconomics and went to the point of increasing interest rates significantly to decrease spending and so banks would have more capital for deposits...


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## GumbyLearner (17 August 2009)

jono1887 said:


> I've done some reading... the govt back in 1929 did not have such great concepts of macroeconomics and went to the point of increasing interest rates significantly to decrease spending and so banks would have more capital for deposits...




Has anyone mentioned protectionism yet?

Although the context of protectionism in 1929 was a lot different to the "free trade" ideals of today. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_trade


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## Buckeroo (17 August 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Has anyone mentioned protectionism yet?
> 
> Although the context of protectionism in 1929 was a lot different to the "free trade" ideals of today.
> 
> ...




I posted on another thread about the US government making it illegal for its citizens to own gold from around this period. 

Talk about protection, this was to protect the US dollar as it was pegged in those days to the gold standard.

Cheers


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## jono1887 (18 August 2009)

Buckeroo said:


> I posted on another thread about the US government making it illegal for its citizens to own gold from around this period.
> 
> Talk about protection, this was to protect the US dollar as it was pegged in those days to the gold standard.
> 
> Cheers




illegal to own gold? how about jewelry?


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## Krusty the Klown (18 August 2009)

jono1887 said:


> illegal to own gold? how about jewelry?




Yes, I believe it was everything except wedding rings and gold teeth. Could be wrong though.


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## Buckeroo (18 August 2009)

jono1887 said:


> illegal to own gold? how about jewelry?




Got a link for a discussion on this if your interested:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2009/0814.html

Cheers


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