# AGM - Allegiance Mining



## newbee (19 October 2005)

(My name says it all!)
Have been reading up on charting and have been trying to follow a few stocks. I'm new to most of this so tolerate any ignorance.
This stock today up on better than normal volume and approaching what I feel is a strong resistance line. 
Does anyone follow this stock and if so (or not) could someone have a look and offer their thoughts. 
I try to combine conventional company research and some basic technical research but am trying to look at this one in a purely 'technical' view at this point.
All suggestions appreciated.


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## Lachlan6 (19 October 2005)

*Re: Allegiance Mining AGM*

Howdi Newbee. Personally i would not be buying this stock until it breaks resistance at $0.16. This is very strong resistance and has repelled the price on three seperate occasions. It is forming a nice triangle ascending accumulation pattern, so if resistance is broken look for new highs above $0.21. Weekly chart looks relatively positive also with OBV supporting this stock nicely. I would personally be waiting from the side lines with AGM, waiting for either a break at $0.16, or a failure to the trend.


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## porkpie324 (20 October 2005)

*Re: Allegiance Mining AGM*

agm watchers, i have had 2 bites at agm, i'm a reader of david haselhursts column in the 'bulletin magazine', anyway bought agm on his recommendation back in 2003 and sold the same nov at abut .17 nice earner then in again april 2004 sold again 3months later at .14 have been on my watch list since but no more purchases waiting for agm to dip to .10-.12.
my advice is cheap resource stocks don't follow technical analysis too well the action has been and gone by the time indicators signal a buy (or sell), so better to do some fundamental work or pick resource stocks that dig someting out the ground like mcr, igo, oxr,or another present explorer but looking good is tyc,
 hope this helps, porkpie


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## RichKid (3 January 2006)

*Re: Allegiance Mining AGM*

AGM in trading hald after fire in a mine shaft, last traded around 14.5c

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/trapped-miners-rescued/2006/01/03/1136050420821.html

Long term chart below, wonder how it'll come out of the trading halt, depends on the damage assessment which may take some time.


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## Dutchy3 (15 January 2006)

*Re: Allegiance Mining AGM*

Hi Everyone

AGM seems to have reached its now or never point. Reasonable relative volume increases on the up days / weeks.

The weekly chart seems to make more sense than the daily.


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## Dutchy3 (16 January 2006)

*Re: Allegiance Mining AGM*

BIG WHITE into NEW AIR, after a considerable period of consolidation.

Volume also reasonable today. Nice day to be a buyer


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## Porper (16 January 2006)

*Re: Allegiance Mining AGM*



			
				Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> BIG WHITE into NEW AIR, after a considerable period of consolidation.
> 
> Volume also reasonable today. Nice day to be a buyer




Don't agree there Dutchy, would have been better being a buyer yesterday 

Interesting to see what happens tomorrow, may have profit taking for a few days, then continue north slowly ?

Anyway too much of an increase today to get my money.Hope it carries on surging for you.


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## Profitseeker (20 April 2006)

In a trading halt with the buy side building up. I am thinking about taking a punt on open. Anyone got any views?


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## Profitseeker (21 April 2006)

*AGM - Allegiance Mining Announcement out*

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
21 April 2006
JINCHUAN SIGNS US$1 BILLION NICKEL OFFTAKE
AGREEMENT WITH ALLEGIANCE
Confirms strong market demand for new projects.
Emerging Australian nickel mining company, Allegiance Mining NL has executed an agreement
with China’s largest nickel company, Jinchuan Nickel Group Limited (“Jinchuan”) for the sale
of approximately US$1.3 billion worth of nickel-in-concentrates that will be produced from
Allegiance’s Avebury Nickel Project in western Tasmania. Jinchuan will provide financial and
technological support to the project so as to deliver maximum production as rapidly as possible.
The offtake agreement has the following features:
1. Includes all nickel concentrates produced from Avebury Resources announced on 9
November 2005.
2. Production estimates from these resources over the next 8-10 years totals approximately
70,000 tonnes of nickel metal contained in concentrates which, at prevailing nickel prices is
worth approximately US$1.3 billion (A$1.7 billion) in gross revenue before smelter charges.
3. We are advised that the smelter payments terms to Allegiance are amongst the highest paid
for nickel concentrates but the details are commercial-in-confidence. The increased revenues
that will arise from this contract are substantial.
4. These enhanced revenues arise because Avebury’s concentrates will be amongst the world’s
highest grade (above 20% nickel) and fit well with Jinchuan’s current expansion program
which will double its nickel production to 150,000 tonnes of nickel metal per annum by 2008.
5. For any nickel concentrates sourced from new resources outside the limits of the 9
November 2005 resources, Jinchuan will have the first right to enter into negotiations for
securing those additional concentrates.
6. Senior Jinchuan executives and technical experts have reviewed the project details for more
than three years and enthusiastically support Allegiance’s plans to commence construction.
JINCHUAN FINANCIAL SUPPORT
An A$5 million subordinated loan and the grant of 25 million options expiring in 15 months
with an exercise price of 28c has been completed. Jinchuan have expressed an interest in
participating in future capital raisings in support of the project.
JINCHUAN: CHINA’S LARGEST NICKEL PRODUCER; EXPANDING RAPIDLY
Jinchuan Group Ltd is a Chinese state owned company located in Jinchang, Gansu Province,
northwest China with assets of 18.6 billion RMB (US$2.3 billion) and 31,000 employees.
ASX Release 21 April 2006 2
Jinchuan is China’s largest producer of nickel, cobalt and precious metals and an important
copper producer. Jinchuan produces approximately 90% of China’s domestic nickel production,
having produced 91,000 tonnes Ni in 2005. It is increasing its installed nickel smelting and
refining capacity to 150,000 tonnes of nickel metal per annum by 2008, a target which requires a
significant increase in imported supplies of nickel concentrates.
The off-take agreement between Jinchuan and Allegiance is mutually beneficial. Nickel
concentrates from the Avebury Nickel Project are ideally suited to Jinchuan’s business
expansion plans due to their high nickel contents and overall premium quality. Allegiance’s
sales to Jinchuan exposes investors in Allegiance to the world’s fastest growing nickel smelting
company in the world’s fastest growing nickel market, China.
JINCHUAN TO PROVIDE TECHNOLOGICAL SUPPORT
Jinchuan has conducted detailed metallurgical testwork on bulk ore samples taken from the
Avebury orebody and has expressed confidence that metallurgical enhancements can occur in
the early years of the project so that metallurgical recoveries of nickel from the ore can
significantly exceed the recovery rates assumed in the Avebury feasibility Study.
Jinchuan will provide, metallurgical experts and other key personnel to ensure that the project
can develop to its maximum potential as rapidly as practicable. This supply of expertise is most
welcome during these times of extreme skill shortages in Australia’s mining industry.
Li Yong-jun, Chairman and CEO of Jinchuan, said: "We have had a longstanding relationship
with Allegiance and are very pleased to be able to offer our support to the company as it
develops the Avebury project. We believe that there is significant potential to increase the
resource base at Avebury and expect that, over the longer term, the production rate will also
increase.”
AVEBURY NICKEL PROJECT STATUS
The treatment plant flowsheet for the Avebury project is nearing finalisation as the final
technical results from the successful full-scale milling trials at the Hellyer Mill in Tasmania are
received and finally assessed.
Once the flowsheet is “frozen” (ie. locked into its final configuration), Allegiance will place
orders for the purchase of the main long-lead items, including the ball mill and other major
treatment plant items. The Avebury Mine plan will then be finalised so as to deliver an ample
supply of nickel ore to the treatment plant well ahead of mill commissioning. To ensure timely
availability, all long-lead items for the mine have been ordered or are in the process of being
ordered.
CHAIRMAN’S COMMENT
From the earliest discovery days we have kept our Chinese friends at Jinchuan acquainted with
progress at Avebury. It is with great pleasure that we now enter into a long term Nickel Supply
Contract with Jinchuan Nickel Group. Tasmanian nickel will now contribute to Chinese
development to the mutual advantage of both Tasmania and China.
ASX Release 21 April 2006 3
Both companies will work closely to ensure the maximum benefit of Tasmania’s first modern
nickel mine for all stakeholders.
A formal signing ceremony will be held in China in the near future.
Our next steps are construction, production and location of our next deposit!!


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## tech/a (21 April 2006)

In at .36c


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## Profitseeker (21 April 2006)

Really. I sold what I was holding at 38 and did not buy more once I saw the announcement. i could not see where more wind was going to come from in the short term. Where do you think it is going to come from Tech A? I am going to wait and look for another entry though.


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## tech/a (21 April 2006)

Think its a longer term play.

I expect that there will be some accumulation.


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## Profitseeker (21 April 2006)

Hmm. Well I hope I get my entry point. I expect a bit of profit taking and I will be looking at getting at around 30-32.


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## tech/a (21 April 2006)

If it drops to 34c I'll be out.


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## tech/a (21 April 2006)

And I'm out.


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## porkpie324 (21 April 2006)

i sold out today, but watch agm its a definate buy on any weakness,porkpie


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## powerkoala (21 April 2006)

I in at 37.5
suppose to sell at 38.5 
yet put 39   
why u out so fast ?


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## porkpie324 (21 April 2006)

i tell why i sold, i always do on any mining co that makes a good announcement the shares go up but has yet to dig anything out of the ground, besides just look at the quotes the main support is now belew .34c, as i said in my last post buy on weakness, i have traded agm now for about 3 years, i now think agm is approaching the accumilation phase, but always be warry of blue sky yet to dig anything out of the ground resource stocks.porkpie


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## michael_selway (22 April 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> i tell why i sold, i always do on any mining co that makes a good announcement the shares go up but has yet to dig anything out of the ground, besides just look at the quotes the main support is now belew .34c, as i said in my last post buy on weakness, i have traded agm now for about 3 years, i now think agm is approaching the accumilation phase, but always be warry of blue sky yet to dig anything out of the ground resource stocks.porkpie




if they havent dug up anything, the chines company is payign so much for it?

thx

MS


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## Profitseeker (22 April 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> If it drops to 34c I'll be out.





Tech A,

Was this your stop loss? If so how did you come to use that as your stop loss. It seems really tgight to me? Reason i am asking is that is the area I am working on in my trading plan at the moment. I try to pick a technical stop or if I can not see one I use a default of 20%.

Regards,

Profitseeker


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## powerkoala (22 April 2006)

That is the same question that i was wondering.
China will not too stupid to buy something, if it is not there yet.
The contract surely will make this stock goes up in the future. 
This is just my own opinion though


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## Dutchy3 (27 April 2006)

Now is this the time to lighten the load?


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## savtin (4 May 2006)

Hi all,
I know i shouldn't but it makes me laugh .................a base metals company" great western" today announces that it is changing its name and going into uranium and the stock jump (or rocketeda) 148 % to 29.5 cents....................now let me see AGM announces a 1.7 billion dollar deal for (70,000 tonnes of nickel) and we all know that is the tip of the iceberg and the share price jumps a ........27%................makes me laugh .hahhahahahahahhahahahah   

maybe AGM should tell us its changing its name and entering into uranium and we will see $1.0 for sure.

On a serious note: don't underestimate what ASSETS this company is potentially sitting on. They have already identified 132,000 tonnes of nickel (at 0.4% cut off) but this is only the beggining..............that is an inground value of $2.4 billion dollars ..........if you add the melba, renison, burbank and potentially the avebury extensions we are sitting on in excess of $4-5billion and then some....................considering operating costs and capex tha leaves us with a company worth at least $1 billion dollars ---SP = $1.72 (that includes the extra 129 million shares to be issued).

GO AGM


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## Profitseeker (16 May 2006)

I've bought back in. Got back in for less than I thought I would but that makes me slightly nervous...


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## lewstherin (16 May 2006)

I'm in at 28.5c...the company has a hell of a lot of shares issued, but with a signed offtake agreement of the scale they have, this stock has got to go places medium - long term.  Even if the bottom falls out of nickel, the stock should reach 50-75c once production starts rocking imo.


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## Profitseeker (16 May 2006)

When is production forecast for? As far as I can tell it is not.


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## Profitseeker (17 May 2006)

Great Annoucement out today. Surprised it has not had a bigger effect on the share price.


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## lewstherin (17 May 2006)

Biggest problem with this company is the sheer number of issued shares - around 600 mil!
They are also doing the next tranche of capital raising by issuing another 10-20 mil shares @ 31c.
Short term, 31c is where the resistance is going to be methinks - since most buyers will just chase the issue if they want more shares.

Oh, and production slated to start in first quarter CY2007, ramping to full prod mid-year.

Being in Tassie, if they have a labour problem, they can always recruit some extra miners from Beconsfield


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## Broadside (17 May 2006)

fundamentals will take over from here this is producing in 2007, offtake agreement with Chinese, upgraded resource and throughput, all good   

as an aside can get exposure to AGM through GUL, but GUL is somewhat illiquid


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## chicken (26 May 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> fundamentals will take over from here this is producing in 2007, offtake agreement with Chinese, upgraded resource and throughput, all good
> 
> as an aside can get exposure to AGM through GUL, but GUL is somewhat illiquid



Got in at 26cents.....looks as if its taking off today...Insto paid 31cents for their shares...looks good to me.....what does everyone else think....


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## Profitseeker (26 May 2006)

I think it is a winner. It is one I am investing in for the long term but also trying to trade. It is proving quite volatile.


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## chris1983 (26 May 2006)

I jumped out of these when i was worried about the whole fiasco with the US.  I figured this was too good a share and jumped back in at 26 cents.  Great long term hold in my opinion.


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## Dutchy3 (30 May 2006)

This one should stablise around 28 - 30ish. Clearly last weeks trading back down to 24 is not supported and the stronger hands bought back in in this range. Clear selling off the top above 38 should still be seen as a point of potential resistance in a few weeks/months as volume actually increased after the top was made


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## chicken (17 June 2006)

Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> This one should stablise around 28 - 30ish. Clearly last weeks trading back down to 24 is not supported and the stronger hands bought back in in this range. Clear selling off the top above 38 should still be seen as a point of potential resistance in a few weeks/months as volume actually increased after the top was made



Dutchy,the directors just paid 34cents for their holding of 10million shares....so they paid 9cents more than market price.....something must be happening for them to buy these option of 10million shares...wonder if the Chinese are going to make an offer for the company...could be possible.....


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## chennyleeeee (27 June 2006)

Common sense would suggest the directors to be stupid by doing that. Theres clearly enough volume to buy on the market if they wanted the stocks so desperately. There must be some automatic system they have going on that caused it. Must be an order and do type thing.

But it does seem extremely cheap considering what the institutions brought it at and consdiering the strong fundamentals of this company. I might wait to see if it dips below 20cents and i might get on board.

CHEN


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## chennyleeeee (28 June 2006)

Up to 26 cents now. Patience is a virtue. I hope it oversells again. hehe

CHEN


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## chennyleeeee (28 June 2006)

Its soaring today even when the entire market is falling. I hope it isnt too late to enter this one. Someone oversell !!!  : 

CHEN


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## stockmaster (28 June 2006)

AGM has rallied from 0.23 to 0.275. I believe there will be some fundmanetal news coming up tomorrow and may further push the price up. Price suggestion - 0.32 - 0.35 for next few days! NOTE: only a recommendation, not liable for any loss.


cheers!


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## chennyleeeee (28 June 2006)

Stockmaster: Where do you get your information from? What makes you think there will be an announcement tomorrow?

CHEN


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## stockmaster (11 July 2006)

The price has rallied since the announcement Avebury Nickel Project Update which states "construction of the 900,000 tonne per annum Avebury Nickel Project near Zeehan in Tasmania Australia is well underway". Nickel has once again hit the top up by over 6% (right now 10.55pm) this shall help the rally started today and may last for a couple of days, interesting to observe for tomorrow.


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## chicken (1 August 2006)

Intresting times ahead for this stock.....2007 into production....


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

Looks to be on the rise, but needs to slice through $0.33. But on the way up. What went on in May? Couple of anns, one good, one bad? Don't really like the look of that. Should find good support at $0.33.


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## CanOz (16 August 2006)

My internet connecting is crap at the moment but heres what i got before i lost Etrade:

In April, just before the trading halt, there was a major agreement signed on a Nickel deal with the Chinese. They then applied and got a trading suspension, followed by a suspension extention. Then a share placement for a capital raising (50m) to fund expansion. 

This partially explains the rise then fall, and gradual increase in SP as after the placement.


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## chris1983 (16 August 2006)

I just wanted to say.  The capital raising was at 31 cents a share and they dropped to something like 21 cents a share.  So the fall definately wasn't because of the capital raising.  I think the fall was strongly influenced by the slump in the resource sector.  This is a good long term investment.  They are in with the chinese and have a lot of nickel in the ground. Production costs will be good aswell.  Good luck to those that hold.


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## chicken (4 September 2006)

Well....AGM should have its update of resources...and with mining comencing sooner than later will see a rerating of SP soonest.....I am in...and holding


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (7 September 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Well....AGM should have its update of resources...and with mining comencing sooner than later will see a rerating of SP soonest.....I am in...and holding




These guys are looking pretty good for a run chicken, I'm watching them for a break.


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## porkpie324 (7 September 2006)

just remember AGM are issueing more shares, ex date tommorow, so may be some weakness coming, porkpie


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## porkpie324 (8 September 2006)

decided to sell my AGM, i still have confidence in the miner, the share price seems well supported, but have been caught out before during previous SPP's  will buy back on any weakness during cap raising, if the share price holds or goes up during this period all the better, porkpie


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## chicken (25 September 2006)

*agm*

New Nickel discovery.....check it out


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## porkpie324 (25 September 2006)

Have checked out this latest discovery,but could be some oppotune news during the cap raising.porkpie


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## chicken (25 September 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Have checked out this latest discovery,but could be some oppotune news during the cap raising.porkpie



Load up the truck...AGM are going places...as far as the opotune time to buy this stock....a broker is trying to cap the price so he can buy all the shortfalls....I bought....looking fantastic


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## Morgan (25 September 2006)

Where are you seeing the capping Chicken? Looks like plenty of overhead resistance (judging by the number of individual sell orders). Unless of course these are all 'old' sell orders placed by people who have not yet seen the latest announcement.


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## Sean K (25 September 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Load up the truck...AGM are going places...as far as the opotune time to buy this stock....a broker is trying to cap the price so he can buy all the shortfalls....I bought....looking fantastic




Why chicken?


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## chicken (25 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Why chicken?



Kennas...make your own research..and get of your bum to read what is happening..I thought you are a share trader..READ...NEW NICKEL DISCOVERY SAXON MINE....but you should know all that...READ WHAT AGM SAID...


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## chicken (25 September 2006)

Morgan said:
			
		

> Where are you seeing the capping Chicken? Looks like plenty of overhead resistance (judging by the number of individual sell orders). Unless of course these are all 'old' sell orders placed by people who have not yet seen the latest announcement.



Capping is done by a broker who will buy all shortfalls...by capping the price...just shortselling shares....which might cost him...I can see a much higher price for AGM....news is all good..check it out....


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## porkpie324 (25 September 2006)

as I said have read latest an, yes its good but not load up the truck good, don't get squaushed on the road "chicken". porkpie


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## chicken (25 September 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> as I said have read latest an, yes its good but not load up the truck good, don't get squaushed on the road "chicken". porkpie



The new Saxon Nickel find may be as large or larger then their other Nickel deposit.. doubling their mining resources....intresting I thought...this SP will not be at this price for long as news filters out...I am holding...not selling at present prices...porgy...do some more research...might help


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## porkpie324 (25 September 2006)

chiken, AGM has been a favorite trader of mine since 2003, at the moment though AGM has excellent prospects but has yet to dig anything up,I have read lots on AGM so feel quite confident with my position at the mo.that is to watch and wait while this spp is on,as i mentioned on previous posts I will buy on any weakness, if the sp holds or goes up all the better for AGM. porkpie


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## chicken (26 September 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> The new Saxon Nickel find may be as large or larger then their other Nickel deposit.. doubling their mining resources....intresting I thought...this SP will not be at this price for long as news filters out...I am holding...not selling at present prices...porgy...do some more research...might help



A big buyer wants in..see the 320k at the end for 31cents.....might see a better action today.....as this big buyer wants in big...their production or mining may start nov2006 with a joint partner.....


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## Sean K (26 September 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> A big buyer wants in..see the 320k at the end for 31cents.....might see a better action today.....as this big buyer wants in big...their production or mining may start nov2006 with a joint partner.....




I would not be at all surprised if someone trying to flog this stock has placed that order there and will pull it at about 9.55...........


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## chicken (26 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I would not be at all surprised if someone trying to flog this stock has placed that order there and will pull it at about 9.55...........



Kennas..you dont get it...the order for the 320k..went through last night..DO take care ,read it fully, then jump of your tangent..as I said before, if you want to make your living in trading...READ IT ALL ,CAREFULLY...not what you want it to be....be MORE diligent , you might succed...AGM...is a VERY cheap share for if the Saxon find is as hugh as their other up and coming mine.....I bought as I can see a great upside here...NICKEL is in short supply....I understand by up to 51000 tons....thats a hugh shortage...


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## cuttlefish (26 September 2006)

I agree with you chicken. 

This stock was already looking pretty good to me, and that was before they announced they might be able to start producing in November via a JV with another mill, and also before they announced the Saxon discovery yesterday.

Already had some but added a few more yesterday.

They're already well on their way to full mining and processing using their own mill, have the off-take agreements in place etc. and now it looks like they'll have the resource to keep it going for quite a few more years as well. 

And they might be also able to start generating revenue by the JV with the other mill as early as this year while waiting for their own milling ops to get going.


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## cuttlefish (26 September 2006)

though from the technical rather than fundamental perspective it looks like it could test the 27/28c area before pushing upwards again - so I guess if you were patient you'd wait to see if it could be picked up at these levels.  (I'm not much of a technician though and happy to have a few).


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## chicken (26 September 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> I agree with you chicken.
> 
> This stock was already looking pretty good to me, and that was before they announced they might be able to start producing in November via a JV with another mill, and also before they announced the Saxon discovery yesterday.
> 
> ...



Well, I am glad some one uses their brain....


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## porkpie324 (26 September 2006)

With trading everyone has their own way of reading reports and the action of the share price, whether its fundamental or technichal analysis and acting upon their conclusions and trading rules. As I have noted at the moment i"m out of AGM, its one of my rules that whilst a prospective miner is raising funds I sell before the ex date. I have traded mining stocks for years and i'm still trading, I want to keep it that way.porkpie


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## chicken (26 September 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> With trading everyone has their own way of reading reports and the action of the share price, whether its fundamental or technichal analysis and acting upon their conclusions and trading rules. As I have noted at the moment i"m out of AGM, its one of my rules that whilst a prospective miner is raising funds I sell before the ex date. I have traded mining stocks for years and i'm still trading, I want to keep it that way.porkpie



ITS simple....you dont have to buy any new shares..and the broker who is underwrites the share offer..will buy more....and if the Saxon find will doubble their resources...AGM at 31.5cents IS CHEAP..if you buy or sell...that is your business....I traded for the last 30 years...and we have or see different situations..I am happy to hold and once they start producing in November...you will be looking at a much higher SP....that is for sure


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## chicken (28 September 2006)

I would suggest this is the cheapest up and coming NICKEL miner....see Kitco. there is a crisis...LME shows their stock is now non exsiting...THEY HAVE NO STOCK TO SELL..happended all in the last 2 days...graph shows stock sold out..also AGM has a $1.5billion sales contract in place..all production sold...now they start mining in Nov.2006.....now who thinks the stock will be worth 31cents by the beginning of NOV...I dont...more like 45cents to 60cents is my asumpton...make your research as Chicken has a small brain....


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## porkpie324 (28 September 2006)

Inspite of all the crowing about AGM, their shares have failed to keep pace with the "real" nickel miners of the last few days ie MCR, JBM, IGO, MRE, thats where my money is at present. If AGM is real value at the moment they would have followed this trend. porkpie


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## chicken (28 September 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Inspite of all the crowing about AGM, their shares have failed to keep pace with the "real" nickel miners of the last few days ie MCR, JBM, IGO, MRE, thats where my money is at present. If AGM is real value at the moment they would have followed this trend. porkpie



Whatever,,,,,when people wake up to AGM...read their report...the SP will not be at this price....I took AGM in Octobers competition...maybe you will learn something....AGM is ready to go...DO YOUR RESEARCH....


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## chicken (30 September 2006)

Nickel prices have risen again...AGM will start in Nov2006 production and with a new Nickel find only 800meters from their present mine....now there is talk of opening this mine up at the Saxon find as well...I understand there is a shortage of NICKEL 2006/2007...and AGM has a supply contract in place...they have $46million in the bank...so make your research as I can see a great upside here.....I hold 200k shares..so I have put my money where my mouth is....I have made my research....


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## porkpie324 (30 September 2006)

well it's gratifying to know chicken that your put your money where your mouth is or should I say beak. Just remember that the information you have so does everyone else, unless of coarse your privvy to insider info. At this time agm sp are lagging behind other miners. But I hope that your correct with your analysis and all being well I to will get my snout in the trough again. porkpie


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## chicken (4 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Nickel prices have risen again...AGM will start in Nov2006 production and with a new Nickel find only 800meters from their present mine....now there is talk of opening this mine up at the Saxon find as well...I understand there is a shortage of NICKEL 2006/2007...and AGM has a supply contract in place...they have $46million in the bank...so make your research as I can see a great upside here.....I hold 200k shares..so I have put my money where my mouth is....I have made my research....



It looks as 30cents is forming a strong base...bought some more at 30cents....as I can see a great upside for they are starting to produce in Nov.2006....


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## chicken (6 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> It looks as 30cents is forming a strong base...bought some more at 30cents....as I can see a great upside for they are starting to produce in Nov.2006....



Closed at 32cents....if it holds..we can see next stop at 34cents...and then its on its way north.....


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## porkpie324 (6 October 2006)

nice late rise with a AGM today, I think "chicken" has been buying


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## chicken (6 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> nice late rise with a AGM today, I think "chicken" has been buying



LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO.....do you think I am made of money...I am only a small player...after all I own 200k of this stock...


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## chicken (10 October 2006)

Check their latest presentation in Sydney mining conference...Looking great for this stock..Read it...this one will take off...as news is all positive.....


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## porkpie324 (10 October 2006)

just between U&I chicken i put an order in today at .30c.porkpie


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## chicken (10 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> just between U&I chicken i put an order in today at .30c.porkpie



Porkpie....you will just have to wait in line..if you get them?????As far as AGM is concerned closed strongly at 33cents.....well porkie...maybe one dayLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLO


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## feeding_the_fire (10 October 2006)

Hey Chicken,

I've been considering this one for a while.

From what I can tell, November is going to be pretty big for AGM. What are your thoughts on what we can expect?

Cheers.


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## chicken (10 October 2006)

feeding_the_fire said:
			
		

> Hey Chicken,
> 
> I've been considering this one for a while.
> 
> ...



It certainly will start then..why....see their presentation out today which was presented in Sidney..today ,at the mining conference...as they said they have got a mine with a lot of highgrade Nickel..in the same % as the Cosmos of Jubilee....it will take off today was just a small taste to come..SP should be higher...make your research and you will see for yourself..bought more today at 32.5cents...but closed at 33cents...


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## chris1983 (10 October 2006)

IMO this one is a sure thing.  Lets wait and see   High grade nickel..existing infrastructure. low operating costs.  Nickel prices at all time highs.Wish I could afford to hold 100,000 of these.


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## feeding_the_fire (10 October 2006)

How come their recent presentation doesn't mention anything about the off-site Avebury processing that may be happening in November? Not on the cards anymore?


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## savtin (10 October 2006)

hI chicken and Chris,
I too have been in this stock for ages and have built a quite substantial holding, although recently I have become dissallusioned by the AGM blue sky potential.............the market knows about the AGM story , whether it be the Saxon discovery or the impending start to production from Renison....and has valued it at between 30 to 33 cents per share..........crazy as it may seem.......i have an inherent value of well over $1.00 but it doesn't mean anything....the market is going to pay me 33cents for my shares and that is it........i really don't know why,,.....maybe the market feels that there are better nickel stocks around.........look at SMY's intersections today or MCR which are both producing....................maybe AGM has come to the party alittle late.................anyway maybe the NOV/DEC start won't eventuate......because if they were certain of producing you would think the inside money (smart) would have bid the price to well over 50cents by now.............

No this is one hell of a frustrating company (regardless of my high regard for the team and company) at the end of the day it is the market that will decide the price it will pay and with all the information out there for the market has decided.........33cents  ...............

...........and to consider how much more information we have had since the announcemnt of the offtake agreement ...........the stock price hasn't budged much.pretty dissapointing..........................too many shares on the register................


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## chicken (10 October 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> hI chicken and Chris,
> I too have been in this stock for ages and have built a quite substantial holding, although recently I have become dissallusioned by the AGM blue sky potential.............the market knows about the AGM story , whether it be the Saxon discovery or the impending start to production from Renison....and has valued it at between 30 to 33 cents per share..........crazy as it may seem.......i have an inherent value of well over $1.00 but it doesn't mean anything....the market is going to pay me 33cents for my shares and that is it........i really don't know why,,.....maybe the market feels that there are better nickel stocks around.........look at SMY's intersections today or MCR which are both producing....................maybe AGM has come to the party alittle late.................anyway maybe the NOV/DEC start won't eventuate......because if they were certain of producing you would think the inside money (smart) would have bid the price to well over 50cents by now.............
> 
> No this is one hell of a frustrating company (regardless of my high regard for the team and company) at the end of the day it is the market that will decide the price it will pay and with all the information out there for the market has decided.........33cents  ...............
> ...



Intresting ,but not quite as I see it..there is a BIG BUYER buying stock...he is been playing the capper as well..could also be severall holders who are accumilating big..as soon as the price rises..the capper puts some cheap shares back..been happening for a while...but we will see  what happends as intrest has returned to this stock...but should rise gradually depending if the capper had his fill...that is whats been happening here...but a bigger price for sure...as they said today there is a lot of Nickel there....


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## chris1983 (10 October 2006)

Hi savtin,

It needs another 2-3 months IMO before it really powers up.  You have to realise a capital raising was just done at a discounted price.  Some holders may sell some of their stocks when they are released on the market.

I believe it is a safe sure bet.  I hope it doesnt power up just yet because I would like to get more.  If it does i still hold a few so its all good.


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## Broadside (10 October 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> hI chicken and Chris,
> I too have been in this stock for ages and have built a quite substantial holding, although recently I have become dissallusioned by the AGM blue sky potential.............the market knows about the AGM story , whether it be the Saxon discovery or the impending start to production from Renison....and has valued it at between 30 to 33 cents per share..........crazy as it may seem.......i have an inherent value of well over $1.00 but it doesn't mean anything....the market is going to pay me 33cents for my shares and that is it........i really don't know why,,.....maybe the market feels that there are better nickel stocks around.........look at SMY's intersections today or MCR which are both producing....................maybe AGM has come to the party alittle late.................anyway maybe the NOV/DEC start won't eventuate......because if they were certain of producing you would think the inside money (smart) would have bid the price to well over 50cents by now.............
> 
> 
> ...





hi savtin, the way I see it, the news keeps getting better and better, they will probably bring forward production, they are making discoveries, nickel is holding up well.....I think this will be a very nice performer, just give it a little time...and I agree with Mr Chicken it has been capped somewhat.  A shame it is isn't producing right now, but as production date nears it should be strongly rerated, as you say looking at double or treble from here within 18 months....and that isn't a bad return


----------



## Dutchy3 (10 October 2006)

Wouldn't appreciate 30 been taken out at this juncture


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## chicken (11 October 2006)

Well, looks as we are finalLy on the move....this stock is about 60% undervalued as now the market cap is only $220 million....there is over 10years of mine life and maybe even longer...new SAxon discovery only 800meters away....and they are ready to mine...read what was said....at the mining conference...this one should soon move north as the market cap should be closer to $350million....then present figures...there has been someone capping this stock as he is buying aLL THE TIME....make your research


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## Beethoven (11 October 2006)

I like the looks of this stock as well.  But there is still a bit of resistance in this stock to move up imho.  I think you right chicken that the big buyers are the cappers of this stock and giving no room for this stock to lift off.


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## savtin (12 October 2006)

Nickel at all times high and AGM is lagging as usuall.............what a pathetic stock...................capper or no capper this is crazy............... i mean if someone or some large find or company wanted the stock big time they would be buying the stock like there was no tomorrow........and the cappers(manipulaters would not be able to do what they are doing)..........there are obviously no interested parties.................. i am afraid AGM will be the stock that came to the party too too late...................  

I am starting to dislike the numbers 30 to 34 inclusive. Feel like we are stuck in mud.........concrete i meant.


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## porkpie324 (12 October 2006)

i agree, just look at CBH the last 2 days,why ar'nt cappers hitting them. In spite of all the crowing about AGM its failed to keep up with its peers, I'm still happy to have closed out at a profit during this cap raising period. porkpie


----------



## Broadside (12 October 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> Nickel at all times high and AGM is lagging as usuall.............what a pathetic stock...................capper or no capper this is crazy............... i mean if someone or some large find or company wanted the stock big time they would be buying the stock like there was no tomorrow........and the cappers(manipulaters would not be able to do what they are doing)..........there are obviously no interested parties.................. i am afraid AGM will be the stock that came to the party too too late...................
> 
> I am starting to dislike the numbers 30 to 34 inclusive. Feel like we are stuck in mud.........concrete i meant.




they aren't producing yet so price of nickel isn't going to directly impact them at this point in time, if you want direct expsure buy a producer, if you don't want to double your money in the next 12 months sell now, it seems a pretty good deal to me though...wonder what people expect? 10% rises a week?


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## chicken (12 October 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> they aren't producing yet so price of nickel isn't going to directly impact them at this point in time, if you want direct expsure buy a producer, if you don't want to double your money in the next 12 months sell now, it seems a pretty good deal to me though...wonder what people expect? 10% rises a week?



I would sugest you do your research..and read what is happening..AGM is starting production in Nov2006...with a partner...who will also be paid very well...THIS IS GOING TO BE A PRODUCER IN 4 WEEKS..does that not tell you something and at over $30k a ton....must be bloody cheap....I bought I am holding and I did my research....DO YOUR RESEARCH....will make us shareholders a LOT of $$$$$


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## Broadside (12 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> I would sugest you do your research..and read what is happening..AGM is starting production in Nov2006...with a partner...who will also be paid very well...THIS IS GOING TO BE A PRODUCER IN 4 WEEKS..does that not tell you something and at over $30k a ton....must be bloody cheap....I bought I am holding and I did my research....DO YOUR RESEARCH....will make us shareholders a LOT of $$$$$




from what I have heard and read November / December is a big ask and on the optimistic side....I will gladly be surprised if they do deliver.  And so will the market because it doesn't seem to believe this calendar year either.


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## Broadside (12 October 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> from what I have heard and read November / December is a big ask and on the optimistic side....I will gladly be surprised if they do deliver.  And so will the market because it doesn't seem to believe this calendar year either.





and AGM has just announced that negotiations with Bluestone for early production haven't been finalised...I believe market has already factored this in, for me nothing has changed, still excellent value.  But no production this year Mr Chicken.


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## porkpie324 (12 October 2006)

If AGM does fail to dig anything up when promised then the sp will take a hiding, and investors will be very wary of any future projections.There are just to many good producing nickel miners around now making plenty of money. porkpie


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## Broadside (12 October 2006)

today's announcement and the lack of price reaction shows it was factored in, if they do get early production treat it as a bonus and the price will rise accordingly.  Company has delivered thus far not sure why so many are getting so frustrated.  It's all good.     Anyway I will come back to this thread in 6 months and we can talk about frustration then, if it isn't already 50 cents plus.


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## porkpie324 (12 October 2006)

That could possibly be correct,time will tell.I still think AGM is a good co thats why I have traded AGM my first buy being 07/05/02 at .048c, have traded many times since and all have been winners, have a limit order in now and will buy on any weakness, but until it starts producing and all the problems ironed out AGM will remain a trader for me.porkpie


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## chicken (12 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> If AGM does fail to dig anything up when promised then the sp will take a hiding, and investors will be very wary of any future projections.There are just to many good producing nickel miners around now making plenty of money. porkpie



Porkpie....they have allready produced 6000tons as trail..they have a hugh deposit..its easy to get at and someone bought just all the 33cents plus most of the 33.5cents stock...production WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM..AS their % of Nickel is VERY high..and not mixed with other ore deposits..you should make your research before posting your waffel...as it helps no one...and post facts not what you wish it to be....this one is going to make a lot of $$$$


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## porkpie324 (12 October 2006)

OOOOPS looks as if I have ruffled some feathers, read the facts i have, and if you read my posts with two eyes you may notice i do infact agree with you, however as I have posted, when a miner has yet produce anything or is relying on new machinary to process the ore caution is warranted thats all i've saidporkpie


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## Halba (12 October 2006)

relax fellas. AGM won't be taking a hiding, its m/cap of only $200 M ish takes into account 2007 production.


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## chris1983 (12 October 2006)

When do the shares from the SPP come onto the market?  Im hoping some investors take quick profits.  Thats when I'll jump in and top up.


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## chicken (12 October 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> When do the shares from the SPP come onto the market?  Im hoping some investors take quick profits.  Thats when I'll jump in and top up.



Chris we may hit 32.5cents but as you see the volume..thats about it..cant see it fall back to 30cents..so just what I see


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## Ken (13 October 2006)

resitance at 34 - 34.5 cents?

who thinks it will be broken before november


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## chicken (13 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> resitance at 34 - 34.5 cents?
> 
> who thinks it will be broken before november



I do..why...see the volume everyday..up to 5 million shares everyday..me thinks north we will go..bought more today at 33.5cents....


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## nioka (13 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> I do..why...see the volume everyday..up to 5 million shares everyday..me thinks north we will go..bought more today at 33.5cents....



So do I and so did I. This one will parallel SMy and is not hedged as far as I know.May take a few months to peak.


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## nioka (14 October 2006)

From todays Australian:
While talks continue between AGM and Bluestone Tin overAGM using the latter's mothballed plant to get nickel production going early in Tasmania, attendants at a mining conference in Sydney this week pricked up their ears when Allegiance indicated it could be paying dividends within 18 months of start up.No debt,production costing $US5000/ton and nickel now $US32,000/ton seems to suggest strong cash flow.


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Someone told me to have a look at this stock, so Ive done a bit of research and that bought me to this forum. It looks to me that this stock is priced about right in the 30-35c range, after all production is 12 months off unless the Bluestone deal happens.
Even then it wont be real production, its only for 3 months and the capacity of Bluestones plant is half what is being built and really its only an opportunity to test out some different techniques to get the recovery of nickel as high as possible. With the extra costs involved etc it wont be much better than break even Id think, but they may be a few steps ahead in knowing how to set up the new plant so it runs effectively.
Nickel prices are high now but who is willing to bet they be this high in 12 months time?
I can see moderate returns in the long term, steady growth to about 50c over the next three years. Doubling and tripleing of the price is a big ask- its already ten times the price it was a few years ago.


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## Halba (15 October 2006)

what about exploration upside??


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Too many ifs for my liking. One drillhole and we have the new Saxon mine. Need to be a bit objective here...too many people with "gold fever" (actually Nickel Fever).


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## porkpie324 (15 October 2006)

more like 'chicken fever', good to see some sense coming in about AGM,
                                                    porkpie


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## chicken (15 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> From todays Australian:
> While talks continue between AGM and Bluestone Tin overAGM using the latter's mothballed plant to get nickel production going early in Tasmania, attendants at a mining conference in Sydney this week pricked up their ears when Allegiance indicated it could be paying dividends within 18 months of start up.No debt,production costing $US5000/ton and nickel now $US32,000/ton seems to suggest strong cash flow.



Porkpie...dont you just hate this..puts an end at you buying at 30cents...darn that chicken fever....and as far as Ghost is concerned..there was not only one hole drilled but many at SAXON...this one will be producing VERY soon..not only that but the contract in place tells the story....as far as the price is concerned...THAT IS A BONUS..as their study was at much lower prices...and taking 3 years to get to 50cents...Ghosts do your research before posting such C/R/A/P...this one will have a much higher upside because their %% grades of Nickel are fantastic....but dont buy it because the smart money from a couple bigbuyers are BUYING..see the volume going through....should see 40cents+ by Xmas...maybe even higher with earlier production...but we can wait..as it will climb reasonable fast on first production...after all was I not right with ZFX,SBM and a few others..I hold as I feel this one will take off...make your research


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Dont get me wrong Im not saying its a bad stock to buy. If there is any weakness over the next few weeks as people trade their new issue shares which presently are at a 7% premium,  ill buy in, but I doubt this will happen as all these shareholder already hold shares and most will look to hang on for a bit. But if the anticipated Bluestone deal doensnt happen, (reading between the lines it looks a little shaky) there could be another buy opportunity.
If it does go ahead, even though the fundamentals havent changed hardly at all, its likely there will be a sell opportunity for those that have shares- a few bucks to be made if they go to say 45c, and buy back in after Christmas at 30-35c as the market realises its all hype.
In the longer term I cant see them dropping below 30c again, but the modest growth I can see makes it look a pretty safe bet, after all if they do reach 50c in 3 years thats still 20% per year, and perhaps a dividend as well. If nickel stays high, like above $20000US per tonnne, even better.


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Just another point that this "Chicken" missed- there has only been one drill hole into Saxon- see announcement 25th Sept. It could be a huge deposit and it may not. Further drilling planned this summer when they put in a new access road.


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## chicken (15 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Dont get me wrong Im not saying its a bad stock to buy. If there is any weakness over the next few weeks as people trade their new issue shares which presently are at a 7% premium,  ill buy in, but I doubt this will happen as all these shareholder already hold shares and most will look to hang on for a bit. But if the anticipated Bluestone deal doensnt happen, (reading between the lines it looks a little shaky) there could be another buy opportunity.
> If it does go ahead, even though the fundamentals havent changed hardly at all, its likely there will be a sell opportunity for those that have shares- a few bucks to be made if they go to say 45c, and buy back in after Christmas at 30-35c as the market realises its all hype.
> In the longer term I cant see them dropping below 30c again, but the modest growth I can see makes it look a pretty safe bet, after all if they do reach 50c in 3 years thats still 20% per year, and perhaps a dividend as well. If nickel stays high, like above $20000US per tonnne, even better.



Ghosta..you said modest growth...make your research before making such statements...their production as soon as they are starting are far from being modest in fact their growth will be imense and as far as their mine life its also more than 10years....at present check volume...at 4 to 5 million shares traded every day..means that we have some big buyers into this stock...and dropping below 30cents keep dreaming..because that is free...and you said not earlier production through Bluestone..how do you know...as assuming that they wont...dont because you got no clue..like Porkpie you want to buy cheap...LOLOLOLO....thats what I say..you dont know..end of story


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## chicken (15 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> From todays Australian:
> While talks continue between AGM and Bluestone Tin overAGM using the latter's mothballed plant to get nickel production going early in Tasmania, attendants at a mining conference in Sydney this week pricked up their ears when Allegiance indicated it could be paying dividends within 18 months of start up.No debt,production costing $US5000/ton and nickel now $US32,000/ton seems to suggest strong cash flow.



Ghosta and Porkpie...dont you just hate that from the Australian..puts paid to your 30cents..LOLOLOLO


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Chicken could be right, but if hes wrong he'll have to "eat crow". Now that would be funny- its usually the other way round!
But im only saying it as I see it.


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## porkpie324 (15 October 2006)

just a comment chicken, last weeks volume was not overly high, AGMs average vol is 3.7 mil daily , so at the mo I'l  stick with my .30 limit order I can always up it if support holds. porkpie


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## chicken (15 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> just a comment chicken, last weeks volume was not overly high, AGMs average vol is 3.7 mil daily , so at the mo I'l  stick with my .30 limit order I can always up it if support holds. porkpie



Porkpie...whatever...and who cares where or how many stops you have got..I see it differently because my research is deeper...and as far as volume tell me if you want to know how many are traded go to tradingroom...and your 3.8 million was the lowest for the week...friday was just under 5 million shares and you call that low volume...as I said before....you hate what the Australian paper said and these are people in the know...you 2 are just downrampers wanting to buy stock CHEAP//...looks like if you want in you have to pay the price....after all BIG BUYERS are BUYING....they know the situation...


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## porkpie324 (15 October 2006)

You bet your sweet little ol chicken heart I want to buy AGM as cheapie cheep as I can, as for the austalian its not for sale in auckland. porkpie


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## chicken (15 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> you bet your sweet little ol ckicken heart I want to buy AGM as cheapie cheep as I can, as for the austalian its not for sale in auckland. porkpie



Well, the only place you get the Australian paper is at the AUCKLANDAirport...but fairenough you want to buy cheap...after all the jew said..how he became rich on the NY stock exchange....that he said, I buy sheep and sell deer...thats how he became rich...have a niece day from sunny queensland...I will be in Auckland in December for 3 months...LOLOLOLO...go the AGM train....


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Heres a link to Mr Ian Levys speech at the Mining Excellence Conferance in Sydney last week.http://www.acnnewswire.net/press/en/33502/Boardroomradio.html
No mention of dividends to shareholders in 18 months though.


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## nioka (15 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> just a comment chicken, last weeks volume was not overly high, AGMs average vol is 3.7 mil daily , so at the mo I'l  stick with my .30 limit order I can always up it if support holds. porkpie



Don't worry if you miss out at 30c they will still be cheap when they get to 45c. You will just not profit as much.


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Good to see Nioka and Chicken talk up this stock-if enough people read your posts they will be convinced that this is the new Poseiden, and the stock will go to $220 in one day!
But i hope this doesnt happen until Ive bought 5000 at 31c. Ill be a millionaire!


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## porkpie324 (15 October 2006)

ghosta,glad to see someone else on my side, It was getting lonely trying my upmost to talk AGM down so I could pick them up cheaply. Chicken can only buy so many then we can jump back in. porkpie


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## ghosta (15 October 2006)

Yes Porkpie, talking the shares down has the opposite effect. It fires Chicken up something wicked. After today I wouldnt be surprised Chicken has boosted the shares by 3c and they will be 36.5c tommorrow. Best shut up for a while.

I should make a deal with Chicken though. If in 3 years the shares are $1 or greater Chicken wins. If they are about 50c, I win. If I win, Chicken "eats crow" literaly and has to go to the Avebury mine and cook up a crow on a fire and eat it. If Chicken wins I have to go to Avebury mine and cook up a chicken and eat it.

What do you reckon Chicken?


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## Dutchy3 (15 October 2006)

30 seems to be a real possibilty for a support point given the relative volume increase too. From 35 -40 we have recent history of selling off so can let the market let us know when the opportunity has passed.


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## ghosta (16 October 2006)

Hello Dutchy. Im not up with all these graphs and things, so Im asking you to explain what you are saying in plain English. My interperetation of what you are saying is that if the share price drops to about 30c their is an immediate buy up to maintain at least this price. If it reaches 35c or above a sell off occurrs so the price is maintained below 35c. Hence the market value of the share is 30c-35c. If I was to purchase share in this range Im buying at market value.

Looking at the activities of the company most people would conclude that the share price is likely, if not certain, to go up. Hence if I bought shares anywhere in the 30-35c range its pretty clear Ill make some money unless some bad setback occurs. Would you agree- I want to make a rational decision based on the fundamentals rather than someone hopefully speculating that the share should be at $1 and  therefore the "market" is full of idiots who havent yet realised the true value of the stock.

Cheers!


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## porkpie324 (16 October 2006)

the real nickel miners are up strongly today leaving the wannabe's in their wake, so when a correction comes it will more than likely drag all nickel stocks down, then you jump in. porkpie


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## nioka (16 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> the real nickel miners are up strongly today leaving the wannabe's in their wake, so when a correction comes it will more than likely drag all nickel stocks down, then you jump in. porkpie



Does the fact that AGM is up almost 6% today take it out of the wannabe class?


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## chicken (16 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> Does the fact that AGM is up almost 6% today take it out of the wannabe class?



>>>>>Porkpie...wants his order filled at 30cents...LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL


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## nioka (16 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> >>>>>Porkpie...wants his order filled at 30cents...LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL



The first pork pie I know that is made from flying Pigs. But then pigs miggghhhttt fly.I think 30c is well in the past.


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## porkpie324 (16 October 2006)

first 6% on a penny stock is nothing, as I said look at the real nickel miners today MCR up 12% MRE up 7.5% to $5.35. yeh sure I want my order filled at .30c but at the moment no more. OH by the way chicken I'm flying over to the gold coast on Nov 1st, staying until Jan. porkpie


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## Broadside (16 October 2006)

you can pay 35c now for an emerging producer or 70 cents in a year for an actual producer, each to his own


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## porkpie324 (16 October 2006)

If and when AGM produce nickel with low mining costs and they pay a dividend i would gladly pay 70c. porkpie


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## chicken (16 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> If and when AGM produce nickel with low mining costs and they pay a dividend i would gladly pay 70c. porkpie



That wish Porkpie you will have..but buy now at 35cents and sell at 70cents...not the otherway around....I am now holding over 250k..of shares at an average of 24cents.....so I am going to be in the money...show me the money.....yeeeeeeaaaahhhhh.......from your CHICKEN......


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## porkpie324 (16 October 2006)

Glad to hear your good news chicken, when I'm over in a few weeks you can shout me a beer at the North Burleigh surf club, porky


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## nioka (16 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> If and when AGM produce nickel with low mining costs and they pay a dividend i would gladly pay 70c. porkpie



When they do all that they will more likely cost $1.70


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## porkpie324 (16 October 2006)

Don't worry I've got my beady on them, as i have written I think AGM is a good prospetive  miner, I have traded them often enough, but during this spp I decided to sell. there's to be another 15.3 mil shares on issue,porkpie


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## chicken (16 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> When they do all that they will more likely cost $1.70



Yep...bring it on...Porkpie as far as 15million more shares...nothing for AGM...as their total shares are only 200million shares....so even if they created another 50million shares no problem...the mine is large and so far the beards have proven themself...and if Saxon indeed as large...$1.70 no sweat..


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## chicken (16 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Glad to hear your good news chicken, when I'm over in a few weeks you can shout me a beer at the North Burleigh surf club, porky



Living in Redcliffe...close to Brisbane.....not Gold Coast.....for Porkpie


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## nioka (16 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Don't worry I've got my beady on them, as i have written I think AGM is a good prospetive  miner, I have traded them often enough, but during this spp I decided to sell. there's to be another 15.3 mil shares on issue,porkpie



At todays trading level that wont last 3 days.


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## ghosta (16 October 2006)

Chicken you havent answered my challenge.

You keep raving on about "Do your research" yet you havent done much yourself.
For example there are about 650 million AGM shares not 200 mill.
Saxon deposit has only ONE drillhole not heaps.

If you cant get these fundamentals right youre just mouthing off.

Porkpie, dont be afraid to hang on. We will get our shares at 31c by the end of the week. AGM has had its run today- the 35c barrier is in place. They will be back to 33.5c tomorrow.


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## porkpie324 (16 October 2006)

Yes I thought that 200mil shares was a bit light, I see that the spp price is .311c per share I would'nt be suprised if thats going to be the price they could go to so you should Ghosta, get your order filled. porkpie


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## chicken (16 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Chicken you havent answered my challenge.
> 
> You keep raving on about "Do your research" yet you havent done much yourself.
> For example there are about 650 million AGM shares not 200 mill.
> ...



Ghosta......LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL


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## Ken (16 October 2006)

you guys are speaking a whole lot of nothing


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## chicken (16 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> you guys are speaking a whole lot of nothing



Ken, you are right..Ghosta and Porkpie are wanting to buy shares at 30cents... closed strong today....at 35.5cents.....their total shares are 629million shares...looking all great for further upside..yeeeeeaaaahhhh.... go you AGM train...their market cap is around 200million....but have billions of NICKEL resources in the ground with a $1.5billion contract in place...


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## ghosta (16 October 2006)

Chicken- the nickel is still in the ground. Thats why Ill get shares at 31c later this week and in three years time sell them at 50c. YeeHar.
You have over 200k shares- well done. You should be able to buy a Kia Rio in 3 years time if they do reach 50c!


----------



## chicken (16 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Chicken- the nickel is still in the ground. Thats why Ill get shares at 31c later this week and in three years time sell them at 50c. YeeHar.
> You have over 200k shares- well done. You should be able to buy a Kia Rio in 3 years time if they do reach 50c!



Be carful buying that brand of car as its south Korean....you never know they might get bombed out...as  the north are talking like that..I drive a TOYOTA...great motor cars...and have also got a FORD..so your Rio are no good to me...LIKE the FORD no1...and Toyota for its economy...so FORD for towing..as far as AGM...it will be more like a $1+ than your 50cents...but will be happy with whatever we get over 40cents...go yeeeaaahhh AGM train..


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

Looks ike "Chicken" is too chicken to take the bet........Lots of noise an yeehaas but no guts.....

31c looking good.


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## chicken (17 October 2006)

NOW,Ghosta why should I take such stupid get....GROW UP


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## chicken (17 October 2006)

2million shares traded..hitting 37.5cents..its through the resistance...sellers disapearing...will we hit 40cents today...????


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

Grab 36.5c now while you still can.


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## Broadside (17 October 2006)

good luck ghosta with your 31c bid

maybe if they do a share split  :


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

Take the money now. All ords drpped below start point. You can always buy back in with me at 31c.


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## nioka (17 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Take the money now. All ords drpped below start point. You can always buy back in with me at 31c.



That's about the same advice I got from a day trader a few months ago at 25c. Glad I took no notice. Each day is one closer to production and the big rewards so why would the price fall? Has the mine collapsed or something else drastic happened?


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

No, this is still a good stock thats why Im buying in at 31c. Its volatile due to hype generated by some out there ("should be $1"), and wishfull thinking.
Got to look at the fundamental values behind it- ore in the ground still, sure to be delays, Saxon "find" could easily be nothing,  deal with Bluestone gone sour, nickel prices good now but sure to drop by the time production happens.
But its a long term stock unless you want to take advantage of the volatility we see now.


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

I forgot to add that there are around 650mill shares. Lets do a comparison with say Smy with around 200 million shares. Every dollar of profit has to be shared with 3X the number of shareholders. So to compare with Smy a shareprice of 30c is equal to a share price  Smg of 90c. They are producing.
Remember this is a low grade resource 0.7-1.2 % nickel mostly. Sure mining costs may be cheap but you have to mine and process twice the amount to get the same amount of nickel as most other mines.
Its not going to be easy money like some have interpereted the presentations by the company.


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## porkpie324 (17 October 2006)

Thats exactly how I have been reading AGM, and thats why I sold and will buy in again on weakness. porkpie


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## chicken (17 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> 2million shares traded..hitting 37.5cents..its through the resistance...sellers disapearing...will we hit 40cents today...????



Tomorrow..in PERTH......Australian Nickel conference....one of AGM directors giving a presentation....so something or someone knows something as volume again large for the day...will their be a afternoon rally...watch what happends...Ghosta is just wishful thinking.....LOLOLOLOLOLO


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

Chicken- Wise Up! If the director announces something new/big theres got to be announcement made on the stock exchange. So we would see it today or tommorow morning before the conferance.
They have been routinely going around with their presentation to anyone who will listen.
Its not their fault if those listening read more into it than they are saying.
Just be pleased you bought cheaply, but if I were you Id sell today and buy back with me at 31c. The market wont stand this spike for long.


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## porkpie324 (17 October 2006)

You had better wise up chicken otherwise you will be KFC not AGM. porkpie


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

That is so funny I cant stop laughing porkpie!~


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## dutchie (17 October 2006)

I have to agree with Chicken.

I think its at the start of a wave 3 - so unlikely to see 35c again.

(I hope so anyway!) 

Cheers

Dutchie


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

I see its back to 36c!
I think the wheels have fallen off the "AGM Train" Yeee Haaa 31c soon!


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## chicken (17 October 2006)

Ghosta you must be desperate for stock....LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO...see you when they are 40cents...LOLOLO


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

What was that you were saying Dutchy.........!


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## porkpie324 (17 October 2006)

I'm just curious chicken if you hold or follow any other miners or stocks in other sectors, or are all your eggs in one basket,porkpie


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## dutchie (17 October 2006)

I was wrong.


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## chicken (17 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Tomorrow..in PERTH......Australian Nickel conference....one of AGM directors giving a presentation....so something or someone knows something as volume again large for the day...will their be a afternoon rally...watch what happends...Ghosta is just wishful thinking.....LOLOLOLOLOLO



Will be an intresting day tomorrow..Australian Nickel conference in Perth....good volume...the Capper..who is buying is VERY busy,,,I wonder who he is,,,,,,????


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

Chicken, some news- there is no capper. Todays prices were unsustainable. Looks like the day traders were out in force trying to get this stock to move up today, and had to sell out when they realised the market knew it was overpriced.
Unfortunatley some small investors got sucked in today, been listening to people like Chicken. Shows you should always do thorough homework before buying any stock.
Anyone else for KFC tonight!
31c Yeee Har go Agm train backwards!


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## porkpie324 (17 October 2006)

I think that I'm offside with chicken, no answer to my question, comeon chicken. porkpie


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## chicken (17 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Chicken, some news- there is no capper. Todays prices were unsustainable. Looks like the day traders were out in force trying to get this stock to move up today, and had to sell out when they realised the market knew it was overpriced.
> Unfortunatley some small investors got sucked in today, been listening to people like Chicken. Shows you should always do thorough homework before buying any stock.
> Anyone else for KFC tonight!
> 31c Yeee Har go Agm train backwards!



You are full of rubbish..CAPPER in it in a big way..take it from me...you just want to hog the board..see what happends tomorrow..


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## ghosta (17 October 2006)

I dont want to hog the board but our Chicken talks such drivel, blames imaginary  "cappers" for the stock not going through the roof when it doesnt deserve too.
Hes greedy. Stock has gone from 22c to over 35c+ in a few months and hes not happy.
Advised him to sell today and make some money, but he knows better. Well he,ll make some money all right, but not as much as he could if he applied some common sense to his share trading, and did his research thoroughly.
I shouldnt criticise poor old Chicken, but he does leave himself open to a reply because of his boasting.
Wont post for a while as I sense Chicken will get nasty.
Good luck everybody. Let you know when I get 31c shares.


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## Beethoven (17 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> I dont want to hog the board but our Chicken talks such drivel, blames imaginary  "cappers" for the stock not going through the roof when it doesnt deserve too.
> Hes greedy. Stock has gone from 22c to over 35c+ in a few months and hes not happy.
> Advised him to sell today and make some money, but he knows better. Well he,ll make some money all right, but not as much as he could if he applied some common sense to his share trading, and did his research thoroughly.
> I shouldnt criticise poor old Chicken, but he does leave himself open to a reply because of his boasting.
> ...




lol i have never ever heard anyone tell anyone how to trade and it shouldn't happen because it is his own money.  I think you are kind of rediculous.  lol i'm sure no one tells you when to buy and sell well.... constantly anyway especially when someone doesn't want to sell.


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## Ken (17 October 2006)

Is it not time in the market that investors benefit from most lets face it, it is a punt,and not everyone can be sitting infront of a computer watching ball by ball trades.  if thats you, then your life is pretty boring. If your a day trader, then your speculation is as good as the next guys, because somebody loser.

You can not be serious if you expect Chicken To sell everytime share price goes up more than what you think its worth. If it is 35 cents then thats what the market is valuing it at today. Whether you think its less or not. At the moment thats what it is. Tommorow it might be less.  in 5 years time when you look at the graph and the historical data shows a slow steady curve to boom town, i dont think the guy who paid 35 cents, and the guy who paid 31 cents really give a ****.

Owners of BHP 5 years ago. Would you be telling them to sell everytime it went up. It has doubled now, i think you should sell.  Sell so you can get maximum profts.  oh wait sell now its multiplied by 4, you better sell, maximum profits, sell now.

What about the tax, brokerage.

only if we had tommorows newpaper.....


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## StockyBailx (18 October 2006)

Sure seems loaded.


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## chicken (18 October 2006)

Australian Nickel Conference to day and next day...so I shall be watching..AGM GIVING 2 presentations......


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## chicken (18 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Australian Nickel Conference to day and next day...so I shall be watching..AGM GIVING 2 presentations......



Long and strong...someone buying all the 36cents shares...looking good...anyone heared re Nickel confrence....


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## porkpie324 (18 October 2006)

Chicken do always answer yourself as well as lay double yokers. porkpie


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## Ken (18 October 2006)

surely we need to hire a boxing ring!


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## chris1983 (18 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Chicken, some news- there is no capper. Todays prices were unsustainable. Looks like the day traders were out in force trying to get this stock to move up today, and had to sell out when they realised the market knew it was overpriced.
> Unfortunatley some small investors got sucked in today, been listening to people like Chicken. Shows you should always do thorough homework before buying any stock.
> Anyone else for KFC tonight!
> 31c Yeee Har go Agm train backwards!




Definately not overpriced IMO.  Will be 60 + cents in 6 or so months time.  They will announce further results to their Saxon nickel deposit and it will be huge.  They have a lot of nickel there at high grades.  They are preparing their mine..everything is set for this one to go.

I dont hold as many shares as Chicken but I know i'll make a nice little profit from this one.  The shares from the SPP were released to the market and maybe some of those holders took profits.  This is on the way up.


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## ghosta (18 October 2006)

Chris- where did you get this information about the Saxon deposit being high grade and huge? Even the company directors dont know this yet, there has only been one drill hole and the further drilling is planned this summmer. Perhaps its your gut feeling which could turn out to be right or it may not.
It may surprise you to know that you may well have as many shares as our friend Chicken- hes been telling a few porkies on the Aussie Stocks forum about his share holdings if you care to look through his postings. 
At least his ravings are as amusing as they are ill informed!


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## chris1983 (18 October 2006)

I said it will be huge. It is very close to the Avebury deposit also. Isnt there Avebury deposit large enough for you?  You should really do your research into production costs in Tasmania.  They have a US$1b offtake agreement with Jinchuan.  Isnt that good enough for you?  This is one of my mid-long term holds.  No worries with this one once they get it into production which will definately happen.  We will see whos right.


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## Broadside (18 October 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> I said it will be huge. It is very close to the Avebury deposit also. Isnt there Avebury deposit large enough for you?  You should really do your research into production costs in Tasmania.  They have a US$1b offtake agreement with Jinchuan.  Isnt that good enough for you?  This is one of my mid-long term holds.  No worries with this one once they get it into production which will definately happen.  We will see whos right.




yes I agree, if we can get short term production from Bluestone that will be a great bonus and an immediate boost for the share price, but regardless this is going to be rerated stongly as production approaches, with strong prospect of further discoveries

can see it doubling or trebling in next 12 months so long so there isn't a commodity meltdown


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## chicken (19 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Chris- where did you get this information about the Saxon deposit being high grade and huge? Even the company directors dont know this yet, there has only been one drill hole and the further drilling is planned this summmer. Perhaps its your gut feeling which could turn out to be right or it may not.
> It may surprise you to know that you may well have as many shares as our friend Chicken- hes been telling a few porkies on the Aussie Stocks forum about his share holdings if you care to look through his postings.
> At least his ravings are as amusing as they are ill informed!



Ghosta is certainly a beauty...he has got no idea...has he, he thinks he knows..well let me tell you his name should be SCHULTZ...who said ...I know noting...thats about Mr Ghosta..who uses MANY Alias...LOLOLOLOLOLOLO...all I know....like SBM,ZFX,AGM,AGS,SMM,OSH only BMX is still down soon its going for a run 40cents is the target...are ALL making me $$$$$$$$$$$....and the last 2 years...the market is great....and I am buying back into MGX.....


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## Sodapop (19 October 2006)

Yeah Chicken - but Sgt. Schultz probably felt the way the wind was blowing... Probably a handy excuse in the dock at Nuermberg... He was the smart one while Klink twisted in the wind???... 

Post enough times someone might eventually pay attention - right Chicken???


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## chicken (19 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> From todays Australian:
> While talks continue between AGM and Bluestone Tin overAGM using the latter's mothballed plant to get nickel production going early in Tasmania, attendants at a mining conference in Sydney this week pricked up their ears when Allegiance indicated it could be paying dividends within 18 months of start up.No debt,production costing $US5000/ton and nickel now $US32,000/ton seems to suggest strong cash flow.



Does make interesting reading....


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## chicken (19 October 2006)

we are getting higher highs and lower highs...SP is rising....closed at 37cents..so Ghosta,and Porkie your buy in price is looking sick..told ya...anyone heard anything about the Nickel conference from Perth...someone knows something....big buyer buying.....


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## chicken (20 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> we are getting higher highs and lower highs...SP is rising....closed at 37cents..so Ghosta,and Porkie your buy in price is looking sick..told ya...anyone heard anything about the Nickel conference from Perth...someone knows something....big buyer buying.....



Yep up 10% this week...will it hit 40cents..I think so look at Nickel price....and only 1 day supply in warehouse....this one is higher today for sure...Ghosta,Porgie...your buyorder at 31cents is looking sick..DUTCHY...you were right the first time....its going higher..and the capper is sick of losing more shares at cheap price..might have to run with the market....40cents here we come..told you all....


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## ghosta (20 October 2006)

There will be untill the market realises that the Blustone deal, which looks very shaky, is abandoned. Bluestone are going to start up tin mining again and want to use the plant next year. See their announcments- Allegiance wont pay the deposit that is due. Bluestone would want big dollars to let anyone use their plant. Allegiance is in a corner, when they release details saying the deals off Ill get my shares and so will Porkpie.
Probably less than 30c.
We will wait and watch to see how much the price drops.


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## GOYCO (20 October 2006)

The news regarding Bluestone not going ahead with Allegiance for the nickel production agreement is expected. The announcements have pretty much said that it will not go ahead but what will drive the price of AGM will be the announcements regarding new nickel discoveries in the area. Which they said they expect quite a few and also as we get closer to production the SP will go up. The numbers are fantastic if everything holds.


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## Broadside (20 October 2006)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> The news regarding Bluestone not going ahead with Allegiance for the nickel production agreement is expected. The announcements have pretty much said that it will not go ahead but what will drive the price of AGM will be the announcements regarding new nickel discoveries in the area. Which they said they expect quite a few and also as we get closer to production the SP will go up. The numbers are fantastic if everything holds.




I agree...if Bluestone deal is well and truly taken off the table it may weaken AGM a little, not a huge amount as it isn't really factored in as a high likelihood anyway.  Conversely if a deal is done it could push the price up quite fast.  But the wildcard is exploration.  Good luck with your 31c bid ghosta I admire your optimism.


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## chicken (22 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> we are getting higher highs and lower highs...SP is rising....closed at 37cents..so Ghosta,and Porkie your buy in price is looking sick..told ya...anyone heard anything about the Nickel conference from Perth...someone knows something....big buyer buying.....



As I said, keep this one on your radar screen as it could run real hard as Nickel prices are rising...I bought and sitting on them....production soon..and the SP will be rerated...AGM have a supply contract in place..great looking all good for agm...


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## ghosta (23 October 2006)

Broadside- Yes your right and the other wildcard is the Nickel price in 2 years time. If we use the base data supplied by allegience the IRR=45%. Given the project cost is a $77 million this means an annual profit of $34m, which we must deduct running costs of the company (not the mine). Probably only $1m. Leaves $33 m divided by 650m shares = return of 5c per share. So a share price of 50c under full production (ie 2 years time) is realistic for these figures. If Saxon is a find, I heard on radio interview with manager that they would increase output by 50% (Install a ball mill 1/2 size of one ordered), so a share price of 75c may be realistic in about 3 years time.
If nickel price stays above US20000 a tonne for the next three years could add another 50% to these figures.
These figures assume no cost overruns or long delays. So $1 a share is certainly possible in 3 years time if all goes VERY well.
So basicaly a gamble if you pay much more than 30c per share now.


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## porkpie324 (23 October 2006)

Totally agree ghosta, I may have taken my profits a little early and that not just AGM, have reduced MCR, all of IGO, MRE,KZL,WSA, SMY. Only now taking short term CFDs. But sitting on lots of good gains, just waiting to see whats going on after some substantial SP increases, a lot of hype around at the mo. porkpie


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## ghosta (23 October 2006)

Yes Porkpie, some people are gonna get burnt real bad.


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## chicken (23 October 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> I agree...if Bluestone deal is well and truly taken off the table it may weaken AGM a little, not a huge amount as it isn't really factored in as a high likelihood anyway.  Conversely if a deal is done it could push the price up quite fast.  But the wildcard is exploration.  Good luck with your 31c bid ghosta I admire your optimism.



gOING THROUGH AT 39CENTS....Ghosta things are not looking to good for you...you forgot NICKEL price is going into the orbit....I said see you at 40cents..now how right have I been,,,,


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## savtin (23 October 2006)

ghosta,
i don't know where you are coming up with your figures. AGMs IR 45% was based on  a nickel price of $15000/tonne. Even as you say a $1,00 stock in 3 years is fantastic return for a 3 year period. Who do you know that can buy a property and have its value triple in 3 years.  What are you on about?

AGM is compelling value at these prices.

Regards
Savtin.


----------



## chicken (23 October 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> ghosta,
> i don't know where you are coming up with your figures. AGMs IR 45% was based on  a nickel price of $15000/tonne. Even as you say a $1,00 stock in 3 years is fantastic return for a 3 year period. Who do you know that can buy a property and have its value triple in 3 years.  What are you on about?
> 
> AGM is compelling value at these prices.
> ...



Thats what Chicken says as well....LOLOLOLO....I think Ghosta missed the train..well, he will have to buy at 39cents...told him so but no one listen to Chicken...LOLOLOLOLOLO...see you at 40 cents..maybe today....


----------



## ghosta (23 October 2006)

Satvin- I agree that $1 would be a fantastic return, but the chances of it happening are very uncertain, probably not likely, but possible nevertheless. So basically we are in the gambling stage with AGM. 
Nickel prices have reached a stage where manufacturers will use substitutes, esp in China where the increase in demand is occuring. Would a chinese consumer pay 30% more for a washing machine with a stainless steel bowl? No hell settle for a baked enamel bowl. He doesnt mind paying 5-10% extra but todays prices are simply unsustainable.


----------



## cuttlefish (23 October 2006)

Take the ego and emotion out of it and the BTX milling arrangement seems like a no-brainer for both parties - so I hope they can put their differences aside and see some commonsense and middle ground.  It'd provide great early cashflow for AGM but will also provide BTX with a cash bonanza much better than they'd get from pulling their own tin out of the ground and milling it.

They should get on with it and make hay while the sun shines - noone can guarantee how long nickel prices will remain high so it'd be silly to waste the opportunity - and its not like AGM doesn't have enough of a nickel supply - losing some margin on the first 6 months or so of production isn't going to hurt them significantly esp. at current Ni prices.


----------



## chicken (23 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Satvin- I agree that $1 would be a fantastic return, but the chances of it happening are very uncertain, probably not likely, but possible nevertheless. So basically we are in the gambling stage with AGM.
> Nickel prices have reached a stage where manufacturers will use substitutes, esp in China where the increase in demand is occuring. Would a chinese consumer pay 30% more for a washing machine with a stainless steel bowl? No hell settle for a baked enamel bowl. He doesnt mind paying 5-10% extra but todays prices are simply unsustainable.



Ghosta..have you ever heared the word..SUPPLY AND DEMAND....as far as your no...they dont add up..right I said it will hit 40cents...now you still want to buy at 31cents...you are a optimist...when they run out of NI...in 15years maybe but in the meantime I enjoy the ride and so do all the other shareholders..GET USED TO IT  LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.....


----------



## dubiousinfo (23 October 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> Take the ego and emotion out of it and the BTX milling arrangement seems like a no-brainer for both parties - so I hope they can put their differences aside and see some commonsense and middle ground.  It'd provide great early cashflow for AGM but will also provide BTX with a cash bonanza much better than they'd get from pulling their own tin out of the ground and milling it.
> 
> They should get on with it and make hay while the sun shines - noone can guarantee how long nickel prices will remain high so it'd be silly to waste the opportunity - and its not like AGM doesn't have enough of a nickel supply - losing some margin on the first 6 months or so of production isn't going to hurt them significantly esp. at current Ni prices.




 :iagree: 

If the deal doesn't go ahead it will be a poor reflection on the management of both companies. Even if BTX decide to reopen their tin mine it wouldn't be using the plant til mid 2007 at the earliest.


----------



## chicken (23 October 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> :iagree:
> 
> If the deal doesn't go ahead it will be a poor reflection on the management of both companies. Even if BTX decide to reopen their tin mine it wouldn't be using the plant til mid 2007 at the earliest.



AGM management is looking after the AGM shareholders...so even if it does not go ahead with BTX no matter as the Nickel does not go off but its still there next year..I CAN WAIT,if it means BTX wants to screw AGM...no matter..AGM looks after AGM..RIGHT...and 40cents today AS I SAID..LOLOLOL


----------



## ghosta (24 October 2006)

Interesting story-
My wife was talking to her sister yesterday, brotherinlaw owns a roof truss factory in Tasmania. He delivered some roof trusses to a mine at Zeehan on Friday. When he returned his wife said hed been speaking to an old school friend who was operating a drilling rig down there. Anyway brotherinlaw apparently went beserk, rang the real estate agent and told him to sell his spec built house at some low price and he apparently emptied the cash tin and went off down to the bank to buy some shares. Dont know if was AGM shares he was buying, or what he found out.

Im still confident this run will end soon and the shares will drop back to a logical price- look at agms graph- last time they hit 40c they dropped back to 20c.


----------



## chicken (24 October 2006)

Ghosta  I wish I wish..I was a FISH....I wish  I wish  I could buy AGM for what...40cents man that is cheap....YOU HAVE GOT NO IDEA....after all AGM is just about producing and you want to buy them at 20cents...LOLOLOLO,,,,I would morgage my house to buy.....so pay up or stay out of AGM....after all we all want something for nothing..I wish I wish I was a fish......


----------



## ghosta (24 October 2006)

Have a look at the SP now Chicken, I knew it couldnt hold 40c. Not crowing now! 31c looks good by the end of the week.


----------



## chicken (24 October 2006)

There are at present 4 cappers working the stock as far as your price??? Cant answer that...but you are optimistic....


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## porkpie324 (24 October 2006)

Thats interesting chicken 4 cappers now influencing AGM, what else is going on?. porkpie


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## cuttlefish (24 October 2006)

hahah c'mon chicken - exactly 4 cappers is it - sure its not 5 or 3 ...  maybe overnight volatility in nickel prices might be a more plausible explanation no?

I'm as enthusiastic about this stock as you are but I'm not under any illusions about cappers and I wish they'd get their act together and do a deal with BTX and start pulling in the dollars sooner rather than later, while nickel prices are still on the boil and lme stockpiles are low.


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## porkpie324 (24 October 2006)

Thats right cuttlefish 4 cappers, and according to chicken OSH is in a trading halt, funny that I shorted OSH this morning with CFDs. porkpie


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## ghosta (24 October 2006)

Dont be too hard on poor old Chicken if he says there are 4 cappers Ill go along with it. 1 under his bed, one in the wardrobe, one under the sink and one in the washing machine. Just because everyone else cant see them doesnt mean they are not there.


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## chicken (24 October 2006)

Cappers are soaking up all the stock they can get at 38cents


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## porkpie324 (24 October 2006)

Thats right if you can't beat him join him.porkpie


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## chicken (25 October 2006)

Capper still shaking the tree...37.5cents now


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## porkpie324 (25 October 2006)

I was getting worried i thought chicken had flown the coop, hav'nt seen a post. But I see that he's back again trying his sweet little ol best to talk up AGM.porkpie


----------



## chicken (25 October 2006)

going through at 38cents...might even see a rise today...hi porkpie still playing the game...capper shook the tree but not to many shares fell out...may jet go higher today..this will be a 6 bagger...remember what I said once about ZFX...now $14......AGM will do well and how high??? we will see as soon as we have production here..but all looking good.....


----------



## porkpie324 (25 October 2006)

by the way chicken when do  the clocks go forward in NSW, I don't get fed until 7.00 pm at the mo. porkpie


----------



## chicken (25 October 2006)

AGM..news flash....I have to wiat for 20 minutes before I get to read it Annyone?????.....could be important


----------



## ghosta (25 October 2006)

Chicken this is not good news for agm. Now 2 company secretaries... Guess they may clash at some stage- will this slow down production? If thats so people will get tired of waiting and Ill get my shares at 31c.


----------



## nioka (25 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Chicken this is not good news for agm. Now 2 company secretaries... Guess they may clash at some stage- will this slow down production? If thats so people will get tired of waiting and Ill get my shares at 31c.



Maybe they need two secretaries, one to keep a check on how much nickel they have??


----------



## ghosta (26 October 2006)

An extra 4% worth of shares issued today at around 1/2 price.So thats about a 2% dilution in value of each share. Hmmm. Will we see the effect tommorrow as the news sinks in?


----------



## chicken (27 October 2006)

Ghosta now spouts the same story on HC....Ghosta wake up this Share will go higher as production iminent...so pay your 39cents..as at the price you want to buy was yesterday...today 39cents....


----------



## nioka (27 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Ghosta now spouts the same story on HC....Ghosta wake up this Share will go higher as production iminent...so pay your 39cents..as at the price you want to buy was yesterday...today 39cents....



Sold my AGM @39c yesterday. I think they will hang around that price until closer to production.when I will come back into the market. In the meantime I put the funds into ADI. When that comes good the funds will go back to AGM. Time will tell if I made the right decision.


----------



## ghosta (27 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Ghosta now spouts the same story on HC....Ghosta wake up this Share will go higher as production iminent...so pay your 39cents..as at the price you want to buy was yesterday...today 39cents....




Chicken its time I came clean. I own many AGM shares and have been accumulating them for nearly 7 years. I dont have the money to buy more. Ive already mortaged my rental house and put the money into AGM. I even bought a new plasma TV recently from myers. They were offering 12 months interest free if I signed up to a myer credit card- with no deposit, or payment due for 12 months. So I bought AGM shares with the money and will sell them in 12 months time. I will get my TV for nothing! Might even make a profit! Good deal eh!


----------



## Ken (27 October 2006)

ghosta there goes your credibility.....


----------



## ghosta (27 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> ghosta there goes your credibility.....



Yes I know- but it doesnt count much around here....


----------



## porkpie324 (28 October 2006)

Ghosta, I thought u & I were fighting the same enemy ie chicken flu, porkpie


----------



## chicken (28 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Chicken its time I came clean. I own many AGM shares and have been accumulating them for nearly 7 years. I dont have the money to buy more. Ive already mortaged my rental house and put the money into AGM. I even bought a new plasma TV recently from myers. They were offering 12 months interest free if I signed up to a myer credit card- with no deposit, or payment due for 12 months. So I bought AGM shares with the money and will sell them in 12 months time. I will get my TV for nothing! Might even make a profit! Good deal eh!



Ghosta...goodonu.....thats the spirit....AGM is worth$$$..as far as I am I have 200k shares..av24cents....so I am well in credit..but what you said on HC...I agree the Chinese are now or have allready been buying these shares...and yes a takeover could be in the air....Stock is worth a lot more than 50cents...more like a $1.50...that is without production....so fingers crossed..and good luck to all holders....PORKPIE...CRY...as Chicken is no 1....


----------



## ghosta (28 October 2006)

Porpie sorry I have changed sides for the moment. But Ghosta is unpredictable.
Chicken was right about the cappers- it was the chinese all right. I thought he was talking nonsense but it all makes sense now. Jinchuan wants AGM bad, the price of nickel is too high for them and here is a great opportunity. I bet they have inside information Saxon that we dont know about- they will strike before results of summer exploration are complete.


----------



## chicken (30 October 2006)

Anyone who holds or is interested should get the Resourcesstock magazine October issue...read page 55....heading...NICKEL TIGER EMERGES IN TASMANIA.....its a fantastic read and yes I will stick to them now as the upside is a huge potential here..in Avebury..Agm has a stricke length of 12km..which looks bloody fantastic....and with Saxon next door...looks all FANTASTIC for us shareholders...READ it.. its by  MICK WELLBECK....looking great.....


----------



## porkpie324 (30 October 2006)

Have just been to AGM website but no mention of Resource Stocks article, I'm coming over to Brisbane on Wednesday so with some luck may be able to buy Octobers issue. porkpie


----------



## chicken (30 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Have just been to AGM website but no mention of Resource Stocks article, I'm coming over to Brisbane on Wednesday so with some luck may be able to buy Octobers issue. porkpie



Porkpie...its a good read....as I said I am impressed with the writeup...


----------



## ghosta (30 October 2006)

Not looking as though much will happen this week Chicken, could be a chance to take a profit and buy in, in a few weeks time?


----------



## nioka (30 October 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Not looking as though much will happen this week Chicken, could be a chance to take a profit and buy in, in a few weeks time?



I'm keen on AGM but I gave you my thoughts last week when I sold AGM for 39c and bought ADI with the funds for48.5c AGM down 1c ADI up 15c with more upside I hope. By the time I get back into AGM I hope to have a lot more of them and be closer to the big increase in their value.


----------



## ghosta (30 October 2006)

Great move Nioka well done let us know how it works out.


----------



## ghosta (31 October 2006)

Not much happening Chicken, even the capper must be having a quiet day.


----------



## chicken (1 November 2006)

Presentation in Brisbane mining convention....shareholders get a free pass....


----------



## ghosta (1 November 2006)

Youre still here Chicken! Funny how when you stop posting (or is that crowing) the share price stops going up. Cmon Chicken rev it up!


----------



## Beethoven (1 November 2006)

Hmm seems like a wedge and pennant forming.  Dang should have bought some lol.  Didnt see the signs until today.


----------



## CanOz (1 November 2006)

Beethoven said:
			
		

> Hmm seems like a wedge and pennant forming.  Dang should have bought some lol.  Didnt see the signs until today.




You might have another chance yet...it could consolidate for a while before starting another move up. Check out the weekly chart....

Definately worth keeping a close watch on.


----------



## ghosta (2 November 2006)

At lst some movement in AGM- even if it is down. Hardly unexpected!


----------



## ghosta (4 November 2006)

Anyone see Sat paper? Allegiance advertising for an Administration Manager, Environmental Coordinator, Senior Mining Engineer, Mining Engineer, Senior Mine Geologist, and a Mine Geologist.
Serious Stuff now.
The jobs are offered on a "residential basis".


----------



## Dukey (6 November 2006)

Hi guys n gals
Just peeking at AGM. I'm like nioka - my cash is on ADI for the moment - but AGM could be next!!
...So they are ready to go ...
any ideas about when they expect mining to actually start?
- how long will the final ramp up to production eg. recruiting etc take??
- dukey


----------



## ghosta (6 November 2006)

Hello,
Mining is to be carried out by contractors who havent been chosen yet, but expect details of the sucessfull company any day now. The job ad asked for electricians,fitters etc to register there interest in future positions which will be rolled out progressivly in the next 3-6 months.
Processing of ore is scheduled to start 3rd quarter 2007. Mining will begin earlier in the year to extend the decline ready for mining and to produce a stockpile of ore ready for processing.
So is now the time to buy? My guesss is we will see a progressive but small increase in the SP untill full production is underway, could be some spikes there for short term investors if the sp gets temporarily overheated. There are lots of watchers (like you) waiting for a big move in the SP who wont want to miss out.
Early results from drilling in Saxon will likely stir up interest.
Where will the SP end up? Anyones guess, between 50c and $1 next year I'd say. 
Good luck- hope you pick the right time to get in.


----------



## Dukey (6 November 2006)

Thanks ghosta - yep - I'll be watching closely over the next few weeks and depending on news and Ni forecasts etc... might jump in for a bite of the AGM cherry. Definitely worth a look IMO.


----------



## GOYCO (10 November 2006)

If anyone is interested read page 47 of November's issue of Australian Property Investor magazine. All about Zeehan and the property boom to come basically because of AGM> Very interesting reading. Cheers


----------



## ghosta (16 November 2006)

You still there Porkpie? Havent heard from you for a while. Looks like a downward trend untill Xmas at least- you could buy in again if you wait, id say at about 32c. Dont think it will drop much lower than that.


----------



## porkpie324 (16 November 2006)

I'm on the Gold Coast for a few weeks no I'm not a schoolie (wish I was though)  having a break from trading,  opened a few positions (CFD's) yesterday added to them today KZL has taken a hammering but opened some more positions on weakness, thanks for the thoughts ghosta, hows our old 'chicken', porkpie


----------



## ghosta (16 November 2006)

Good on you Porkpie. Ive heard about those schoolies, getting wasted and flashing their t1ts, you behave yourself now!

As to Chicken hes given up on Aussie Stocks Forum and gone to HotCopper Forum, where he is known as "dweke2000". 

This is his latest post on HotCopper-

"PRODUCTION>>>starts in 2007........and the SP will be 60c to $1+.......thats how it stands for next year...I am holding NOT SELLING....with a 100% in the next 6 months expected.....NICKEL will be the metal for 2007"

Sound Familiar!


----------



## Out Too Soon (16 November 2006)

Hey Kennas! Have you been watching this? What do your charts tell you on this one. It looks interesting & the fundamentals are good.


----------



## rissole (18 November 2006)

Hi guys just thought I would say hi to some fellow agm shareholders. Everything seems to be tracking ok at this point what are your thoughts?


----------



## 2020hindsight (19 November 2006)

rissole said:
			
		

> Hi guys just thought I would say hi to some fellow agm shareholders. Everything seems to be tracking ok at this point what are your thoughts?



Rissole - (comments from the beginner's pool, m8 lol) -  I thought I sold my AGM about Monday -!!! lol - turns out that I didnt (discovered after the minor correction on Tuesday) - and because it seemed to weather the storm better than expected - (well better that I expected anyways) -  only dropped about 0.5 cents from memory from about 37c? -  why then, I decided I'd keep it after all  -  Here's to next week


----------



## ghosta (19 November 2006)

Yes AGM is exactly on track. May drop a bit untill the next announcement of significance in about 4-6 months time, but totaly irelevent unless your looking to buy more. Its a waiting game for the present.
There are lots of impatient people about who think that just because AGM has the potential to be a $2 share in 3 years time, that it should be that now. But they will get sick of waiting and sell there shares and move on to the next "big thing". Life is a long series of dissapointments for them.


----------



## rissole (19 November 2006)

I have held shares from around .14 to present and I know there is a long way to go yet, everything is really positive, I am here for the long haul. Do you think dividends are way off after mill and all bits are complete? cheers rissole


----------



## ghosta (19 November 2006)

rissole said:
			
		

> I have held shares from around .14 to present and I know there is a long way to go yet, everything is really positive, I am here for the long haul. Do you think dividends are way off after mill and all bits are complete? cheers rissole




In one of his Boardroom Radio Interviews, Ian Levy hinted that a dividend would be paid in the 2008/09 year. Because there is no debt at present except for about $7mill owed to Jinchuan and Societe General ( which represents about 1 weeks PROFIT under full production), the cash flows will be enormous. Some of it may be used to develop further mines and/or increase the processing capacity when Saxon is proven up, but if nickel prices stay hgh they cannot possibly spend all the profit!

It may make economic sense from a shareholders point of view to borrow money for major developments and reward shareholders with a high dividend.
Many of us have been waiting years for a return (7 years for me) and Im know the directors are keen to pay out a return.

If nickel prices stay high, dont rule out a 20c per share dividend fully franked.


----------



## Jinfreak (19 November 2006)

Hi all, I've receive information that Allegiance Mining will be taking in people for their process plant in March / April 2007. Therefore I believe that the comissioning / production of nickel concentrates should be happening around + 3 to 6 months after that time.


----------



## ghosta (19 November 2006)

Here is a link to the jobs being offered at Avebury mine.
http://www.miningpeople.com.au/job_...SC&icategory=&ilocation=&ijobtype=&ikeywords=
No mention of jobs at the processing plant, but they could be handled by a different recruitment company.


----------



## savtin (22 November 2006)

It is such a PITY that bluestone and AGM could not reach an agreement and start making money together. 

AGM's SP doesn't look like doing anything until late next year..........what a travesty.

WSA, MCR and SMY powering along.........................

It just doesn't seem to me that AGM is being sought after by the market at large.......its current market cap is small compared to its assets and potential..........not withstanding the future cash flows .................most Media reports in the past have always refered to AGM as the little potential mining company somewhere down south .........


Wonder when we will see the SP re-ratings like other stocks when your are moving up in 8 -10cents intervals..................or am I just dreaming and have to accept that AGM is to remain in the 30's .................................


----------



## chris1983 (22 November 2006)

Well I got back in today.  Only 10,000 shares...but hey I wanted to be in this little gem.  It will come good eventually.  Just have to wait.


----------



## ghosta (22 November 2006)

Satvin, you will have to be patient.

The stock HAS done well this year, its increased X2.5 which is good in anyones terms!

Ive held shares for nearly 7 years. It seems as though its only been in the last 12 months that anyone else has heard of AGM.

Even so, it took a few weeks for the market to wake up to the Saxon announcement.

The Directors have been to every possible mining meeting with a presentation over the last six months to raise awareness. They have spoken on Boardroom radio on a regular basis, and to the Wall St Reporter.

Holders of all mining leases adjoining AGMs leases are busily trying to raise capital to eplore "Avebury Type" geological formations, and thats good publicity for AGM.

Because first sales are 12 months away the SP hasnt risen as fast as many shareholders would like.

Be assured it will rise. There is no doubt about that. And in a big way- for the reasons we understand having done some research.

There are many watchers ready to pounce if the SP rises. Not all are simply one week speculators. At the moment they believe there is still time to buy in.

Daily volumes of sales are reasonable.

But I can understand your frustration. In the early years of Avebury exploration, they kept reporting excellent exploration results, and the SP went down to 3c.


----------



## Halba (23 November 2006)

hi ghosta

most of the real % gains occur closer to mining and production. Prime example is WSA, it has just hit ore and keeps rocketing 10% day after day..endless rises!

If you want to sell out ppl thats fine, but realise this. You can always get back in, however more exploration finds will add a few more cents to the SP. I think it should be trading around 40-45c currently. 

AGM's mineral resource inventory is identical to WSA, so overall there shouldn't be a great deal of difference in market capitalisation....WSA is trading well over $600M, AGM $250M. Arguably WSA has very good management as well, but AGM did a good offtake deal so...ITs dead obvious that a $250M stock has more to go up than a $600m stock. the risks are identical as both are under ground mines


----------



## nioka (23 November 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Great move Nioka well done let us know how it works out.



I've started to buy back into AGM . Think the way is up from here on. Slowly until nearer to production but better gains then. Thats my 2c worth, and hope I"m right.


----------



## savtin (23 November 2006)

Do we know if AGM are still drilling holes down there?????There does not seem to be much coming out of them RE exploration success.............or upgrades to their resources for a while now.......................

maybe they have stopped until after Xmas ..................??


----------



## ghosta (23 November 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> Do we know if AGM are still drilling holes down there?????There does not seem to be much coming out of them RE exploration success.............or upgrades to their resources for a while now.......................
> 
> maybe they have stopped until after Xmas ..................??





They have 3 drilling rigs down there. You can be sure they are not idle.
To fully drill out Saxon they intended to put in a ring road over the top and drill down from good access. Not sure on progress, Id think it should nearly be ready.

My guess is they are drilling into Saxon from outside this area with at least 1 rig.

But Ill have more info after Ive been down there to the unveiling of the Foundation Stone.

You can expect a full report!


----------



## savtin (27 November 2006)

It would be nice to see AGM close above 40 cents today and even better if it can break out above 43.5 cents soon afterwards............

common AGM lets get going.........................


----------



## chris1983 (27 November 2006)

Hi Guys,

Some good news for AGM.

You know how one of the largest uranium mines the Cigar Lake Uranium mine coming on stream got delayed.  So has a major nickel mine.  This mine was supposed to help with world stockpiles.  See link below.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aX4daMO9zlb4&refer=news

Now see the news in regards to the delay.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=4d3dd5b3-e613-46c9-8bb9-458d52241764


----------



## chris1983 (29 November 2006)

charts looking really good..


----------



## EEE (29 November 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> charts looking really good..




Agreed, its going to take a bit of effort to push through 0.43 but next week could be very interesting.


----------



## nioka (29 November 2006)

EEE said:
			
		

> Agreed, its going to take a bit of effort to push through 0.43 but next week could be very interesting.



Got to 44c after the bell.


----------



## savtin (29 November 2006)

If AGM has broken out ........what are some of its potential targets in the short term............(cause in the long term over $1.00)

great
volume day too..................GO AGM finally showing some up and GO


----------



## chris1983 (29 November 2006)

I think they will continue to run now.  With Nickel prices looking good for the future AGM will be set.  Production being delayed at the Goro nickel project in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia has helped the cause IMO.  The will be delayed untill late in 2008 and You can probably push that back further which should help nickel prices.

AGM will be producing within a years time. looks set to give me some good returns..risk factor in my mind is very low aswell.


----------



## chicken (29 November 2006)

What did Chicken say...read my posts....


----------



## chris1983 (29 November 2006)

haha  I cant be bothered going through your posts chicken.  Repost them and i'll read them  .  I know you have supported agm for quite some time.  Im just glad I got back in at 36.


----------



## Novski (30 November 2006)

AGM in pullback mode today - perhaps a good opportunity.


----------



## nizar (30 November 2006)

Novski said:
			
		

> AGM in pullback mode today - perhaps a good opportunity.





Yeah. Disappointing, but like you say, an opportunity.
I think this makes for a good set up to enter today 41 or 42c and stop at 38 or 39c just below those support levels.
Tomorrow could be special for this one.


----------



## GOYCO (30 November 2006)

Would people please stop ramping this stock. There really is no need to. Buy and holg for 2 years. Forget about tomorrow, next week or next month for that matter. This is not a day trading stock ( like cudeco) this is for real. But he who wants to be rich in a day will be hung in a year..

Do your reasearch find out the truth


----------



## nioka (30 November 2006)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Would people please stop ramping this stock. There really is no need to. Buy and holg for 2 years. Forget about tomorrow, next week or next month for that matter. This is not a day trading stock ( like cudeco) this is for real. But he who wants to be rich in a day will be hung in a year..
> 
> Do your reasearch find out the truth



Well said


----------



## nizar (30 November 2006)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Buy and hold for 2 years.




No thanks. Not my style.


----------



## nizar (2 December 2006)

Could be a goer next week.

I still think that break of 10years of resistance (wednesday) at 39-40c was significant. Sometimes these moves take time


----------



## Novski (5 December 2006)

Not much volume since last week despite breakout. Waiting and watching. 

Any views...


----------



## nizar (5 December 2006)

Novski said:
			
		

> Not much volume since last week despite breakout. Waiting and watching.
> 
> Any views...




Im still holding. Not in a hurry.
Im not looking for an explosive move, slow and steady in north-east direction would be nice.


----------



## Novski (5 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Im still holding. Not in a hurry.
> Im not looking for an explosive move, slow and steady in north-east direction would be nice.




I hear you,...as it's done the whole way along, but i thought it might speed up a bit after it broke out above 40c


----------



## nizar (5 December 2006)

Novski said:
			
		

> but i thought it might speed up a bit after it broke out above 40c




SO did i but hey u cant get them all right!


----------



## rub92me (6 December 2006)

Looks like it is speeding up now. 1 million shares traded in the first 15 mins and up 2 cents.


----------



## chicken (6 December 2006)

rub92me said:
			
		

> Looks like it is speeding up now. 1 million shares traded in the first 15 mins and up 2 cents.



It surely is..now how right was I...but you all tried to make a fool of me...next stop is 60cents rubydieduck....LOLOLOLO...Ghosta said on HC that AGM are starting their mining operation on the 7thDec2006....intresting I thought...rumour has it ZFX are looking at AGM...


----------



## nizar (6 December 2006)

Breakout.


----------



## rissole (6 December 2006)

yeah 7th december is spot on,    barminco have been awarded  mining contract


----------



## 2020hindsight (6 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Here is a link to the jobs being offered at Avebury mine. ...No mention of jobs at the processing plant, but they could be handled by a different recruitment company.



Thanks for this post ghosta - was enuf to hook my interest 

Lol - btw, Does that mean we watch the JOBS sectino of the paper?  For instance,  I saw some jobs advertising for broom cleaners !! - hence ..BUY brooms !! (?) lol
(or was it cleaners in Broome? - just can't be sure )


----------



## nioka (6 December 2006)

rissole said:
			
		

> yeah 7th december is spot on,    barminco have been awarded  mining contract



I can't find any recent announcements by the company. Where is this info coming from?


----------



## rissole (6 December 2006)

it was stated  by  allegiance  at  the unveiling  of  the  foundation  stone  yesterday  at  the  avebury  mine  at  zeehan


----------



## chicken (6 December 2006)

rissole said:
			
		

> it was stated  by  allegiance  at  the unveiling  of  the  foundation  stone  yesterday  at  the  avebury  mine  at  zeehan



Yeeeeeehhhhhhhheeeeeaaaaaaa.....thats the spirit......we have lift off......


----------



## Ken (6 December 2006)

i held aGM from 33 cents to 40 cents.... damn it. 

that will teach me from listening to GHOSTA!

chicken has not been wrong from what i have seen!

SBM and AGM are proof.

I am on OSH so am holding that untill chicken says to SELL.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 December 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> rumour has it ZFX are looking at AGM...



I'm not arguing with you here, but haven't the ZFX heads said they aren't looking at taking over other Australian companies? Then again, club presidents say their coaches are safe, don't they?


----------



## chicken (6 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> i held aGM from 33 cents to 40 cents.... damn it.
> 
> that will teach me from listening to GHOSTA!
> 
> ...



Ken..I own osh shares...as oiler goes...as good or better than a lot of them...You forgot to mention..ZFX that was another of my recomendation....AGM going through at 47cents...Ghosta meant well as  he thought price might drop...but I thought with production around the corner perhaps,maybe....but decided to hold my 200k shares....now if I had sold I would have been kicking myself...by the way..at $3.25 for Osh it was a buy..if you are trading or holding for longterm....the experts saying its worth $4.35 to $4.85...could go even higher..so I hold and trade some...makes my average price lower....buy at $3.25 sell at $3.45 or $3.50...do that a few times and you made a few $$$$.....and makes you happy....cheers the chicken...MAKE YOUR OWN RESEARCH....as I am just a mortal being...


----------



## chicken (6 December 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I'm not arguing with you here, but haven't the ZFX heads said they aren't looking at taking over other Australian companies? Then again, club presidents say their coaches are safe, don't they?



I am just repeating of what came out of Tassie....could only be a rumour BUT..where there is smoke there is a fire....so anything is possible...someone has been capping this stock for a long time...see trading pattern and something could be happening....its very possible...ZFX have got a plant in Tassie and this could be feasable as to use their plant....I just assume this...but we should know soon as far as AGM is concerned....their SP is telling us something...good luck to all the once who held...must should my mouth...this German talks too much..not allways good for me...I will crow more in future otherwise I finish up being KFC..LOLOLOLOLOL


----------



## chops_a_must (6 December 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> I am just repeating of what came out of Tassie....could only be a rumour BUT..where there is smoke there is a fire....so anything is possible...someone has been capping this stock for a long time...see trading pattern and something could be happening....its very possible...ZFX have got a plant in Tassie and this could be feasable as to use their plant....I just assume this...but we should know soon as far as AGM is concerned....their SP is telling us something...good luck to all the once who held...must should my mouth...this German talks too much..not allways good for me...I will crow more in future otherwise I finish up being KFC..LOLOLOLOLOL



Lol!

And this is true. 
It really would be stupid if a company like ZFX comes out and says we are looking to take you all over, it would just ramp share prices up and they would end up having to pay more.


----------



## ghosta (6 December 2006)

Report on Foundation Day Avebury Mine-

What a great day for Allegiance Mining!  The unveiling of the Foundation Stone symbolically marked the transition from being a nickel explorer to being a nickel producer, although processing of ore won’t begin till 3rd quarter next year as we all know.

Those of you who have only recently discovered AGM may not appreciate the hard struggle that went on to get to this stage. Ive held shares in AGM for almost seven years and until I attended this function I had no idea how difficult it was. They spoke of the year 2002 as being the “black year” when despite all the good drilling results the share price went down to 0.03c.  At the time, for me the drop in price was disappointing, but I did buy more shares at the time (I didn’t tell my wife) because Id done enough research to know they were on to something. And that belief is what kept them going.

Finances were so tight they couldn’t afford to put a decent access road into the drilling sites and the drillers had to walk in  after heavy rain. The rigs were helicoptered in and out- far cheaper than a series of roads.

But I gained an appreciation that those involved with the project in the early days had real guts, and have every reason to be proud of their achievements.

I came away from the unveiling knowing that the guys involved will get this project up and going- properly and profitably. The company have hand picked the best personnel in the country for the project- that’s a strong impression I got. 

The Chairman of Jinchuan was in attendance with a group of engineers and geologists. They got to look through the mine but not us mere shareholders- all we got to see was the site for the processing plant. Work was progressing flat out on the tailings dam which has to be blasted out of a flat low lying area, about a dozen assorted heavy machines were working in the area. The rock was being dumped to raise up an area for the processing plant.

None of the Chinese present could speak English so all the speeches had to be interpereted. The chairman of Jinchuan made one significant comment which I found interesting. He had just returned from a conference of mining/ metal company heads in China sponsored by the Chinese Government. The purpose of the conference was to prepare the mining/ smelting industry for the next step in Chinas development, which was to improve the living standard of the 900 million peasants in rural areas. Apparently infrastructure development throughout rural China on a MASSIVE scale is about to begin. State owned companies, like Jinchuan must play their part (for the good of the country) and would have to revise their production targets.

Jinchuan has a small city in Ganshu province on the edge of the Gobi desert devoted to nickel production, employing 80000 people (from memory). They are doubling production by 2008 by building a new production line. They are very keen to find news sources of nickel ore to smelter.  (China was a net exporter of nickel ore until 2000- but export of nickel and some other ores were made illegal last month).

AGM Chairman Tony Howland-Rose emphasised in his speech that he believed that nickel prices would “remain stronger for longer” than many of the doomsday “experts” were suggesting . Given his track record I don’t think his comments can be easily dismissed.

Ian Levy showed us the usual slide comparing nickel mining at Kambalda WA to Avebury, and said that the slide spoke for itself in reguard to the potential profitability of the Avebury mine.  He also emphasised that the average 1% nickel contained in the ore was around the  industry standard wordwide, and that it was inaccurate to describe the deposits as “low grade”.

All shareholders present got a free green hat with “Avebury Mine- Foundation Day December 2006” printed on it, looks like it would make a good fishing hat, but Ill keep mine as a memento. We got a free lunch too.

The announcement that Barminco was the successful mining tenderer was a surprise, as was the fact that they would start mining on Dec 7th (to build a stockpile for processing and to extend the decline about 5km round the orebodies).  Barminco is local company formed by miners (ex Rennison mine I think), and were described as very experienced and competent.

I asked around about the rumour of a Zinifex or Jinchuan takeover of AGM. All I spoke to thought there was nothing in either suggestion. Hope that’s right because AGM will make us some big dollars- Im very confident in that now.


----------



## chris1983 (6 December 2006)

Well my girl is happy.  Picked her up 10,000 AGM at 36.5 about a week ago.  Cant wipe the smile off her face..now I know she will keep giving me money to invest into the future.  My plan worked.  haha


----------



## chicken (7 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Report on Foundation Day Avebury Mine-
> 
> What a great day for Allegiance Mining!  The unveiling of the Foundation Stone symbolically marked the transition from being a nickel explorer to being a nickel producer, although processing of ore won’t begin till 3rd quarter next year as we all know.
> 
> ...



Looooooking Gooooood.....thanks for that.....my retirement fund....my average now 14cents.....Chicken


----------



## ghosta (10 December 2006)

*Announcement this week?*

Its been 6 weeks since AGM has made an announcement. Given that they usually average 2-6 per month, Id say we are due for one this week.

Obviously "the beards" have been busy over the last few weeks preparing for the Foundation Day at Avebury and the Chinese visit and have had little time to prepare anything.

Lets hope that in their visit with the Chinese last week to the Burnie Metalurgical place where all their Metalurgical work is done, they had some remarkable samples from Saxon to show off!

Would be a good Xmas present!


----------



## ghosta (10 December 2006)

Heres an interesting snippet from Todays Sunday Examiner (Launceston Tasmania)

“Mining in the historic Mt Bischoff mine at Waratah is set to begin next year…..Bluestone Tin which bought the mine in 2004 has lodged a development plan……The company also plans to restart mining at the mothballed Renison Bell tin mine 80km away, and process the ores together at the Zeehan operation.

But it might struggle to get workers.

The West Coast mining industry is fighting to hold on to its skilled operators in the face of a new nickel mine also starting up production next year.

Companies (operating existing mines on the West Coast) are even offering financial incentives for workers to stay put.
Its understood one mine has increased workers pay packets by 10 per cent while workers at another mine are being offered supermarket vouchers.”

The article goes on to tell how Bluestone Tin bought the Renison Bell mine from administrators, in 2003, and after spending $50 million, “bought the mine- described as a “basket case” by many who courted the idea of investing in it – back into production”. Seven months later the mine closed, leaving 200 workers jobless.

This article is collaborating evidence to my earlier posting where I noted that Allegiance Mining had sourced the best workers on the West Coast for the Avebury mine. 

It also helps to explain why at the recent Foundation Day at Avebury mine, the mining manager Paul Richardson stated confidently “We wont have any trouble finding miners for Avebury ine”


----------



## savtin (12 December 2006)

Hi all AGM holders,
In regards to Technical analysis of Stock Prices..............didn't AGM show a classic breakout over the last week and yet its price seems to be fizzling at the moment..............what happened?  I mean I know that T/A is not 100% certain.............but i mean all the signals were there for a great breakout on good volumes.................i thought the next price target would be 57 cents base on the difference between the 42 cents and the 15 cents base line....

i am in for the long haul but i thought based on the short term indicators she was of to the moon............?????????????????


----------



## ghosta (12 December 2006)

Yes Satvin it showed every sign of continueing. But there was a big seller on the market offloading a lot of shares in 25000 parcels. My guess its some old guy whos held the shares for a long time and thinks its time to cash in- hes made enough and its time to spend his money.

Perhaps we will be in the same poition some day selling 2000 share parcels.


----------



## savtin (13 December 2006)

More delays,  is the fact they said that processing will start in 10 months peed some people off. ?????

We need some good exploration holes to get more interest.


----------



## nizar (13 December 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> Hi all AGM holders,
> In regards to Technical analysis of Stock Prices..............didn't AGM show a classic breakout over the last week and yet its price seems to be fizzling at the moment..............what happened?  I mean I know that T/A is not 100% certain.............but i mean all the signals were there for a great breakout on good volumes.................i thought the next price target would be 57 cents base on the difference between the 42 cents and the 15 cents base line....
> 
> i am in for the long haul but i thought based on the short term indicators she was of to the moon............?????????????????




Yep the uptrend here is still very much intact.
The break will only be a short-lived one if significant volumes are there.

Im happy to ride this one longer term.
50c by the end of the week and 60c by the end of the year would make me a very happy man.

If it breaks through 40c though, then we are in trouble...


----------



## savtin (13 December 2006)

Ghosta,
Was the 10 month until start time, flagged at the foundation day meeting, or was that new NEWS.

Seems like it will be same again this time......remember the feasibility study kept getting pushed further out as well.

So it appears an October start date for processing.

How much ore will be mined by this time? Anyone know?

Regards
Savas


P.S looks like they go back in the bottom draw.


----------



## nioka (13 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> 50c by the end of the week and 60c by the end of the year would make me a very happy man.



2006 or 2007 ?


----------



## nizar (13 December 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> 2006 or 2007 ?




Oh sorry i didnt make myself clear, i meant 2029   
You know what they say, stupid question, stupid answer.


----------



## jj0007 (13 December 2006)

Delays are the norm of these relatively small start up producers.  Having it up and running on schedule would put it in the "remarkable" class.  I am prepared for a 1 - 2 quarter delay......that is up to 6 months.


----------



## ghosta (13 December 2006)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> Delays are the norm of these relatively small start up producers.  Having it up and running on schedule would put it in the "remarkable" class.  I am prepared for a 1 - 2 quarter delay......that is up to 6 months.





I agree with most of your statement. But to call AGM a small start up producer is quite incorrect. They will be processing 1000000 tonnes of ore soon after startup. That aint small- its the biggest mine by far to start up in Tasmania. 

Also the delays are small- look at Ravensthorpe...

Anyone starting up any major project are at the mercy of equipment suppliers, in Aveburys case the supplier of the ball mill. 

In the end it will make no difference whatsoever.


----------



## rub92me (13 December 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> Ghosta,
> Was the 10 month until start time, flagged at the foundation day meeting, or was that new NEWS.



Very good question. If it was new NEWS, then they should have explained it better and make it a market sensitive announcement, rather than try and slip it under the radar. So either they are dodgy, or all the AGM experts on this thread missed something. So which one is it?


----------



## savtin (13 December 2006)

rub92me,
it is ok i spoke to a comp. rep and they were always flagged for a 3rd quarter start.i.e end of sept.....now it may be the first of oct ......no big deal..........they are working around the clock to ensure they start making money as soon as possible............ALL is GOOD.


----------



## ghosta (13 December 2006)

" We need some good exploration holes to get more interest."

As I keep saying be patient.

Incidently the drilling program for 2007 is now listed on AGMs website, under Exploration > Avebury.


----------



## rub92me (13 December 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> rub92me,
> it is ok i spoke to a comp. rep and they were always flagged for a 3rd quarter start.i.e end of sept.....now it may be the first of oct ......no big deal..........they are working around the clock to ensure they start making money as soon as possible............ALL is GOOD.



Thanks for the clarification.  Like you I'm in this for the long haul and I don't expect it to double in 10 seconds, but something seems to have spooked holders. Maybe lots of people with trailing stops too close to the wire?


----------



## jj0007 (13 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> I agree with most of your statement. But to call AGM a small start up producer is quite incorrect. They will be processing 1000000 tonnes of ore soon after startup. That aint small- its the biggest mine by far to start up in Tasmania.




Maybe I should have used "mid tier"... but still small when you compare to the major mining houses e.g. RIO, BHP, OXR, ZFX etc.  I guess the point I was trying to make is that, with such resource shortages (not the ore type) at the moment, a company like AGM with "only" 300 odd mil mcap will not be able to throw its weight around when it comes to making certain demands.  Unlike the bigger COs who can say "jump" and the suppliers will ask "how high".  I always give these small-mid tier startups a leeway of 1-2 quarters.


----------



## chicken (14 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> " We need some good exploration holes to get more interest."
> 
> As I keep saying be patient.
> 
> Incidently the drilling program for 2007 is now listed on AGMs website, under Exploration > Avebury.



Ghosta bought some more at 44.5c at the close....good buying me thinks....for longterm...can see here in 12 months $2 to $3.....


----------



## ghosta (14 December 2006)

Ghosta bought some more at 44.5c at the close....good buying me thinks

Ha Chicken I got them cheaper than you did  (chicken topped up at 48c). But both of us will make some good money!


----------



## ghosta (20 December 2006)

Well its been a fantastic year for AGM with its tripling in price over the year. Had I posted a tipping competition last year I would probably have been the only one to put a tip in- but a lot more people have become aware of this great stock now and Im sure we can get quite a few tips. Had I tipped last year I would have said 30c, so Im conservative as far as the SP goes.

End of next year my guess is 92c

Whats your guess?


----------



## chicken (20 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Well its been a fantastic year for AGM with its tripling in price over the year. Had I posted a tipping competition last year I would probably have been the only one to put a tip in- but a lot more people have become aware of this great stock now and Im sure we can get quite a few tips. Had I tipped last year I would have said 30c, so Im conservative as far as the SP goes.
> 
> End of next year my guess is 92c
> 
> Whats your guess?



Ghosta....just bought a few more at 44cents...I am now in for a longterm hold...but by next Xmas I will be up by over 100%...as I feel the Sp could be $1+.....as AGM will be producing NICKEL....better, than money in the bank at 5% so I have taken the risk and we will see how right I will be....merry Xmas to all and a happy prosperous new year....all sytems go for next year..also GOLD will shine in 2007.......


----------



## ghosta (20 December 2006)

Chicken, pretty open guess, this is a tipping comp, give me a figure!


----------



## Sean K (20 December 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Ghosta....just bought a few more at 44cents...I am now in for a longterm hold...but by next Xmas I will be up by over 100%...as I feel the Sp could be $1+.....as AGM will be producing NICKEL....better, than money in the bank at 5% so I have taken the risk and we will see how right I will be....merry Xmas to all and a happy prosperous new year....all sytems go for next year..also GOLD will shine in 2007.......



Chicken you can't just throw price targets up with vague justification, like 'producing nickel'. Especially double the current sp. And that's not necessarily better than money in the bank. Plenty can go wrong in the mean time. Stick to ramping without lofty unsubstantiated price targets mate. And, yes, before you say it, I do know something about the company and I have read the reports, blah blah. They look good. All the best!


----------



## ghosta (20 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Plenty can go wrong in the mean time.




Kennas what can possibly go wrong; we know nickel will be strong for the next decade at least, the mining and processing is all in hand, product is sold. I suppose the worst thing I  can think of is that the ship bringing the ball mill to Australia from Europe sinks- how likely is that!


----------



## Sean K (20 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Kennas what can possibly go wrong; we know nickel will be strong for the next decade at least, the mining and processing is all in hand, product is sold. I suppose the worst thing I  can think of is that the ship bringing the ball mill to Australia from Europe sinks- how likely is that!



Ghosta, the company looks great, and if you're a believer in the stronger for longer, US not going into a housing led recession, China continuing to grow at 10% ish, supply not catching up with demand, the mine coming on line on time, the workforce recruited is high quality and on time, that ship does not sink     and Chicken doesn't visit the site and cause a cave in, then great! Perfect. There's never a sure thing Ghosta, even my stocks are likely to go bankrupt for some unforseen reason soon! Let's keep it real.


----------



## ghosta (20 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Ghosta, the company looks great, and if you're a believer in the stronger for longer, US not going into a housing led recession, China continuing to grow at 10% ish, supply not catching up with demand, the mine coming on line on time, the workforce recruited is high quality and on time, that ship does not sink     and Chicken doesn't visit the site and cause a cave in, then great! Perfect. There's never a sure thing Ghosta, even my stocks are likely to go bankrupt for some unforseen reason soon! Let's keep it real.




Hmm... some interesting point you have raised point to why AGM shareprice has not reached the dizzy heights some have been predicting.

Some people still believe that a downturn in US housing economy would have a significant effect on ni price. Also that the demand for nickel in China will mysteriously fall despite the fact that China is about to embark on a government sponsered  infastructure development of gigantic proportions (bigger than anything the world has ever seen) in rural China. Perhaps the Chinese will give in to international pressure and not revalue the currency, (if there is a worldwide recession) even though it will mean they will have to stop this project aimed to improove the lives of Chinas 900m rural peasants.

Some people imagine that 50000 tonnes extra nickel can be bought into production each year (with China expansion programme thats probably going to be 100000 tonnes) yet all the major projects are at least a year behind, and with some the technology is untested and expensive. Someone has obviously found a way to fast track nickel exploration and mine development, reducing it from average 8 years to 1 year. 

We already know the mines in Tasmania have increased pay by 10% and are giving their workers supermarket coupons to stop the best men deserting to join Allegiance. And its not working. All the miners that went interstate when mines closed in Tassie who want to get out of the stinking hot desert and come home may suddenly change their mind, its not so hot really? Yes its plausible.

And if the unforseen happens and the Avebury development falls six months behind, the SP will fall and never ever recover. Even though they will pay 20c dividend per year, Ill still be able to buy shares for under 40c!

I get it now.


----------



## chicken (20 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Ghosta, the company looks great, and if you're a believer in the stronger for longer, US not going into a housing led recession, China continuing to grow at 10% ish, supply not catching up with demand, the mine coming on line on time, the workforce recruited is high quality and on time, that ship does not sink     and Chicken doesn't visit the site and cause a cave in, then great! Perfect. There's never a sure thing Ghosta, even my stocks are likely to go bankrupt for some unforseen reason soon! Let's keep it real.



good one looks as if I am going to be KFC...LOLOLOLOLO


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## ghosta (20 December 2006)

Its OK Chicken, the rock is very stable at Avebury and you wont cause a cave in if you visit. But you might not find any miners about, they will be hiding from you in the state of the art emergency shelters they have down the mine, and the doors will be locked!


----------



## GOYCO (21 December 2006)

Ghosta

Since most of the paticipants on this thread seem to be fairly conservative I would like to be daring and say $1.27. If it eventually goes above $3 then I can retire early. I am also wondering if you noticed that the Beards keep comparing their company to WMC. Is it possible? Zeehan = Olympic Dam?
Looking for signatures, like Avebury. Also no one has said anything about Melba Flats. There's a chunk of Nickel there. 

Yeah I think $1.27 is a bargain

cheers


----------



## porkpie324 (21 December 2006)

Hey its good to have the crew (Ghosta & Chicken)  back on this one,  glad u have sense of humour chicken I was getting worried, quite a que outside our local KFC last night. BTW I hav'nt bought back in to AGM yet still  waiting for 30c. porkpie


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2006)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Ghosta
> 
> Since most of the paticipants on this thread seem to be fairly conservative I would like to be daring and say $1.27. If it eventually goes above $3 then I can retire early. I am also wondering if you noticed that the Beards keep comparing their company to WMC. Is it possible? Zeehan = Olympic Dam?
> Looking for signatures, like Avebury. Also no one has said anything about Melba Flats. There's a chunk of Nickel there.
> ...



Not conservative Goyco, just following ASF policy on ramping. Please read the link.

One of the points is that you must provide justification for a price target, or your post will be deleted. Just how on earth do you get $1.27?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4773&highlight=asf+policy+ramping


----------



## savtin (21 December 2006)

Hi Kennas,

That is easy to justify with production as it is and a few assumptions..

1. PON - 25000/t
2. 8500 tonne/pa (start at 5500 but grow it slowly)
3.shares on issue 670M
4. Overhead and exploration costs 20M pa
5. $63/t operating costs say 20% blowout=$75.6/t

8500 x 25000 - 950,000 x 75.6 = 140M - 20M = 120M 
no interest costs and ignore ammortization as it is a non-cash expense

then tax is 30% = 36M
leaves us 84 M profit / 670 shares = 12.5 cents per shareEPS

now we can safely assume the mine will have capacity with further explaration to have a life of atleast 20 years.....therefore justifying a higher p/e-------------say 10

then SP = 10 x 12.5
= $1.25

cheers
savtin


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> Hi Kennas,
> 
> That is easy to justify with production as it is and a few assumptions..
> 
> ...



Thanks savtin. 

Just curious what the 950,000 and 140m are?
I haven't found an assumption by the company on overheads/mining contract/exploration costs. Did you just take a stab at that? 
Will shares on issue change if they do a placement/spp, or with the current cash on hand and coming into production cover that? 

Cheers.


----------



## savtin (21 December 2006)

Kennas,

The 950,000 is ore mined and the 140 is the revenue before subtracting the overhead and exploration expense.

The figures have actually come from information that either AGM or brokers have provided.


----------



## GOYCO (21 December 2006)

Kennas

You are right..imo I believe the SP will be somewhere between $.80 and $1.50. There are so many variables involved that my educated guess is based on everything going right. $1.27 is my guess. I have no intimate knowledge which would make my guess any more or less correct than anyone elses. It should not be construed as financial advice. It's just that Ghosta asked us what SP we thought it could be. As markets are not perfect ( that is another debate entirely) even Warren Buffet's price for dec 30th 2007 is a guess as well. I apologise if anyone took my guess as anything other than which it was intended. 

Cheers

Man you guys are strick


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## Sean K (21 December 2006)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Kennas
> 
> You are right..imo I believe the SP will be somewhere between $.80 and $1.50. There are so many variables involved that my educated guess is based on everything going right. $1.27 is my guess. I have no intimate knowledge which would make my guess any more or less correct than anyone elses. It should not be construed as financial advice. It's just that Ghosta asked us what SP we thought it could be. As markets are not perfect ( that is another debate entirely) even Warren Buffet's price for dec 30th 2007 is a guess as well. I apologise if anyone took my guess as anything other than which it was intended.
> 
> ...



Maybe another way of looking at it is that it's trippled the past 12 months, so this time next year it should be $1.35?? 

Or, if you extrapolate the chart it might get to about $0.95ish.....

Gee I wish setting price targets was that easy, and they all eventuated!!!


----------



## Kauri (21 December 2006)

Was one of my early shots at E/W.. am still holding.. looking for around th 60c mark initially.. my stop is still around 33c but I think I would act before then if it started dropping.


----------



## ghosta (21 December 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Was one of my early shots at E/W.. am still holding.. looking for around th 60c mark initially.. my stop is still around 33c but I think I would act before then if it started dropping.




I think Id do the opposite; Id sell my car, motorbikes and boat and buy in! Id have brand new ones in a month or two!


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## nioka (21 December 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Was one of my early shots at E/W.. am still holding.. looking for around th 60c mark initially.. my stop is still around 33c but I think I would act before then if it started dropping.



I'd act before it got to 33c too. I'd buy more before it got that low. I'll probably buy more at the current price.


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## chicken (23 December 2006)

Ghosta....if you look at my posts at ZFX I said...quote..that the SP was to cheap at $3...it should be more like $4....now it $18...now I am flabergasted..when I said that some posters asked me which year...just sometimes I get mad about them...but so far...HAVE been right in most picks..bar BMX....but I still say that one will fire as well as BMX claims to become the 4th largest producer of taitanium...my SBM pick went up by 500% my ZFX pick went up from $2.30..to $18.also 500%...just unreal and I can see AGM hitting $1+ soon why..look at the NICKEL price its flying..overnight it increasead another 45cents...Osh is another undervalued stock...there is a lot of money to be made in the next 5 years...the world is awash with money..its all looking for a home..China will be investing more in Australia...so everyone who is now playing the game will make $$$$..I am...take SMM Uranium...just reading that once the green light is given for minig that SMM will be the 10th largest mine...and the QLD goverment will reap billions of $$$...I look at 75% to 100% of increase of my money in the sharemarket..so far it has been achieved even though I had a few dogs on the way...so everyone a merry christmas and a happy new year...Chicken


----------



## GOYCO (24 December 2006)

I personally will be accumulating AGM through 2007 rather than looking for weakness. I feel that the SP will keep rising up until production. As long as delays are not too long then I think this strategy will probably be the safest. I can't find a better mining prospect. It's actually nice to come across a company that under promises and over delivers. Refer previous announcements over the last two years. Now the question is how much can I accumulate before I run out of money...

All the best for 2007

cheers


----------



## ghosta (24 December 2006)

Good luck Goyco in your accumulation scheme.

I have no real idea what oportunities to buy will occur this coming year. Its a different stock than the one Im used to- every good drilling result was greeted with silence in the past. I dont think this will be the case any more.

Saxon is a especially significant discovery because the geologists predicted it would be there. That means they are likely to hit on further discoveries faster.

If it drills out to be a only a small deposit, it will only delay the inevitible expansion of production. But the market wont like it.

But in the coming year will be an increasing awareness that high nickel prices are here to stay. If the price drops below 30000us or even 25000 us per tonne, even though below these prices Avebury is hugely profitable,the market wont like it- for a while.

On the other hand if Saxon is a mineable deposit, Im going to hang on to my chair. I think the SP will go ballistic!

Chicken- Merry Xmas, and thanks for your entertaining postings. Dont forget to put your price prediction on Hotcopper!

All the best to all for the festive season.


----------



## nioka (24 December 2006)

The biggest problem facing us as holders of AGM is the same problem I found with AZR. I held them for some time waiting for the big jump in price after the commencement of production only to be "robbed" by the MGX take over at a very low price. This could happen here. Would Chicken and Ghosta be prepared to give an opinion on this?


----------



## joeljp (25 December 2006)

savtin said:
			
		

> Hi Kennas,
> 
> That is easy to justify with production as it is and a few assumptions..
> 
> ...




Hi Savtin, I'm guessing that the $25000/t is in USD? If it is then your $1.25 should really be around $1.66 (based on $0.75 fx rate). I'd be happy with that 

Personally, I reckon PON can only go up from here. The stock level of Ni is very low. Wouldn't it be great if Ni completely runs out about the time when AGM production kicks in?


----------



## michael_selway (25 December 2006)

joeljp said:
			
		

> Hi Savtin, I'm guessing that the $25000/t is in USD? If it is then your $1.25 should really be around $1.66 (based on $0.75 fx rate). I'd be happy with that
> 
> Personally, I reckon PON can only go up from here. The stock level of Ni is very low. Wouldn't it be great if Ni completely runs out about the time when AGM production kicks in?




really? $16USD/lb for Nickel is pretty peaky imo










thx

MS


----------



## ghosta (25 December 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> The biggest problem facing us as holders of AGM is the same problem I found with AZR. I held them for some time waiting for the big jump in price after the commencement of production only to be "robbed" by the MGX take over at a very low price. This could happen here. Would Chicken and Ghosta be prepared to give an opinion on this?




Nioka, I feel a bit out of my depth to give any definitive opinion here.
I think its the one thing that many shareholders fear.

In the present climate, the vast majority of shareholders hold very positive views on the future of AGM and a takeover bid would be difficult.

Should Saxon turn out to be a small deposit, I believe sentiment could change. In the light of cold hard reality, if  Saxon WAS small it doesnt matter much. The company would keep exploring the vast territory until it does hit on sizeable deposits. But the market tends to have a shorter term view. 
The SP would drop considerably- perhaps only for a relatively short time, but certainly time enough for a takeover attempt to be more likely sucessfull.

How much more likely? No idea.

Best not worry too much about it, if it happens, life goes on......


----------



## ghosta (26 December 2006)

Can anyone give me the top 3 australian nickel producures and the tonnage produced in 2006? Given that AGMs "beards" have stated they expect to be the third highest producer in Aust in a few years, Im interested to see what sort of  output they are anticipating.


----------



## michael_selway (26 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Can anyone give me the top 3 australian nickel producures and the tonnage produced in 2006? Given that AGMs "beards" have stated they expect to be the third highest producer in Aust in a few years, Im interested to see what sort of  output they are anticipating.




JBM, MRE, MCR, SMY, IGO

thx

MS


----------



## ghosta (26 December 2006)

BHP Billiton will obviously be the largest Nickel producer, so who is likely to be the second largest nickel producer in Australia ahead of Allegiance (if all goes well) in a few years time?

I cannt find a list of current production let alone projected production figures for Australia.


----------



## gringokonyo (28 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> really? $16USD/lb for Nickel is pretty peaky imo
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hi,

I'm new to this forum and interested how you've calculated $16 USD/lb for $25,000 USD per tonne?  I understand that there are 2204 lbs per tonne, so that would make the lb price $11.30 USD. Not sure if I'm missing something here.

I have a few shares in this stock, bought on the strength of the article in the Resource Stock magazine, so am pleased to see that many on this thread are predicting a significant share price increase by the end of 2007.


----------



## watsonc (28 December 2006)

Is AGM still worth buying into at 0.48 cents??? By the end of 2007, are the predictions estimating that the share price will hit around $2.00????


----------



## nioka (28 December 2006)

watsonc said:
			
		

> Is AGM still worth buying into at 0.48 cents??? By the end of 2007, are the predictions estimating that the share price will hit around $2.00????



Chicken and ghosata wouldn,t be able to answer because they may be then accused of ramping so maybe I can answer for them. No I can't because I'd be ramping too. You will have to do some research yourself. The answer should beeeeeeeeeeeeeee wow.


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## Halba (28 December 2006)

at $2 the market capitalisation would be $1.2billion. its production profile of sub <10,000t nickel means $1 is more likely


----------



## ghosta (28 December 2006)

watsonc said:
			
		

> Is AGM still worth buying into at 0.48 cents??? By the end of 2007, are the predictions estimating that the share price will hit around $2.00????




I cant answer whether you should buy shares at 48c. But if you were to do some research you may decide to.


----------



## chicken (29 December 2006)

Breakout..now 52cents...told you all


----------



## ghosta (29 December 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Breakout..now 52cents...told you all




"Dont count your Chickens before they hatch"- old jungle saying.


----------



## nioka (29 December 2006)

Halba said:
			
		

> at $2 the market capitalisation would be $1.2billion. its production profile of sub <10,000t nickel means $1 is more likely



That makes sense. To go beyond $1 would need more production. I will be happy with $1 as my average cost is 35.7c. If adividend is paid within a reasonable time as has been predicted I will hold long term so the price then becomes less important


----------



## ghosta (29 December 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> That makes sense. To go beyond $1 would need more production. /QUOTE]
> 
> Not necessarily; a large reserve of ore discovered and plans to increase production sooner rather than later will allow the SP to reasonably go beyond $1.
> 
> ...


----------



## nioka (29 December 2006)

ghosta said:
			
		

> nioka said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## savtin (30 December 2006)

THis has been a very good year for me in regards to AGM ....i was with them 3 years ago when they hit 10cents....and have been averaging up ever since......

AGM's SP has been very solid this year and has gone up approx 260%.....which is fantastic.

In saying that although it is 50.5 cents today I can't help but feel the real surge in price has yet to happen......and i mean when it is re-rated........stocks tend to run up between 50 cents to 100cents pretty quickly.........

when do you all think this will come???......... we are not that far off production and for eg PDN and MCR were both flying well before they started production............

i have a feeling that if further saxon drill holes are a success (that is IF) then the SP of this baby will truly rocket........and I don;t mean by 5 cents or 10 cents either..........

i am not trying to be ungrateful ....AGM has had a terrific year ( a turning point in its evolution from explorer to producer) but gees ....AGM is still 50.5 cents ......and I have a value of $1.50 - $2.00 in mind as fair value for its assets and potential assets......
cheers
savtin

Happy New Year to all


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## joeljp (30 December 2006)

Hi Savtin, I think Ghosta has pointed out somewhere (could be on another forum) that rise of the SP in the immediate future will depend on the size of the Saxon find, as they will extend the mining/prodcution life of AGM even further. Based on their initial reports in Nov (i think) Saxon does look like an extension of the current deposit. We are all quietly hoping for a positive announcement in Jan. 

We need to bear in mind is that AGM has issued a huge number of shares compare to MCR and already AGM's market cap isn't far off MCR at the moment. MCR is well into making a truck load of money. It could all come down to how much publicity AGM will get as it gets closer to production. The SP probably won't be like that MCR but it sure won't be too far off. I would dearly love to see AGM be another JBM in a few years. Wouldn't that be something!


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## ghosta (30 December 2006)

Ive just done some calculations based on the Internal Rate of Return quoted by the company following the 2005 Feasability Study. The results appear below. Listed at the top are the figures Ive based my calculations on.

Internal rate of return @nickel price $15000 US =45% 
9000 tonnes nickel concentrate per year 
Project cost $80m AU (Agm said $77 for 6000 tonnes/annum, not much more for 9000 tonnes per annum) 
10% inflation rate 
8 year mine life 

Ive also assumed $1US= $0.80AU, originally AGM used $0.73AU but we are at $0.78AU aprox now, so to be safe Ive used $0.80. 

Nickel Price $us Earnings per share $au 

15000-            0.05 
20000-            0.11 
25000-            0.16 
30000-            0.22 
35000-            0.28 
40000-            0.34 
45000-            0.39 


The calculations err very much on the conservative side, and assume Jinchuans profits are maintained at 25% of the nickel metal price. This may be on the high side, any reduction goes directly into the earnings per share.

You can use whater multiple you think appropriate to project a share price. If Saxon contains a mineable amount of ore, the multiple increases in proportion to the amount found. 

Looks good to me!


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## EEE (2 January 2007)

up over 10% and not a murmur....

everyone must still be too hungover to notice


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## ghosta (2 January 2007)

EEE said:
			
		

> up over 10% and not a murmur....
> 
> everyone must still be too hungover to notice




I guess the reason noone is commenting is that its not really a surprise.....


----------



## jj0007 (2 January 2007)

Not surprised with the move.  Just a bit dissappointed with the timing.  Was hoping to top up some more in the next couple of months, when funds became available.


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## kransky (2 January 2007)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> Not surprised with the move.  Just a bit dissappointed with the timing.  Was hoping to top up some more in the next couple of months, when funds became available.




same here! i am days away from funding for a few stocks and they are mostly all up significantly already...

AGS, AGM, SMM, BTX, MTN...


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## chicken (2 January 2007)

kransky said:
			
		

> same here! i am days away from funding for a few stocks and they are mostly all up significantly already...
> 
> AGS, AGM, SMM, BTX, MTN...



wonderful is it not....read whar I said....all I got is being rubbished by some posters....TOLD YOU SO.....LOLOLOLOLOLOLO


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## Kauri (2 January 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> wonderful is it not....read whar I said....all I got is being rubbished by some posters....TOLD YOU SO.....LOLOLOLOLOLOLO




   Chook, please don't crow too loudly, would hate to see the rooster-feather duster scenario play out here..      especially when I am a holder.


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## GOYCO (2 January 2007)

A prediction by KPMG in their last report stated that there will be a 26 % in crease in the consumption of iron ore. As nickel and the production of steel have a high correlation with each other it would be safe to assume that the demand for nickel will be very strong this year


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## chicken (2 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Chook, please don't crow too loudly, would hate to see the rooster-feather duster scenario play out here..      especially when I am a holder.



OK,....as you are a holder and I am a holder...will keep quiet as I like to see the $1 sign soon....you never guess  my average now 14cents....and have 200k of  these....got it right this time....also Kauri...SBM is ready for a run....as they put in for Gold assets on the east coast...SBM on the short list for these...and inclusion in ASX 200 soon....ready to rock and roll


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## joeljp (2 January 2007)

I too was hoping to top up if it drops below 50c. It looks like sub 50c is now a thing of the past


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## Devil_Star (3 January 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> A prediction by KPMG in their last report stated that there will be a 26 % in crease in the consumption of iron ore. As nickel and the production of steel have a high correlation with each other it would be safe to assume that the demand for nickel will be very strong this year




Hi, can you give the link about KPMG's report pls? Thx alot!


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## GOYCO (3 January 2007)

http://kpmg.com.au/Portals/0/Energy&MiningOutlookAustralia0607.pdf 

cheers


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## ghosta (3 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Chook, please don't crow too loudly, would hate to see the rooster-feather duster scenario play out here..      especially when I am a holder.




Im not sure its a good idea to stop our feathered friend from crowing. While hes crowing, the SP seems to go up!
Besides, he's entertaining!


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## Novski (5 January 2007)

Any opinions on this in the short term/next week...since it's had a very good week or so.

My view is that it will retrace down especially if it closes at 60.5 which will create 2 short term peaks at 60.5.


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## nioka (5 January 2007)

Novski said:
			
		

> Any opinions on this in the short term/next week...since it's had a very good week or so.
> 
> My view is that it will retrace down especially if it closes at 60.5 which will create 2 short term peaks at 60.5.



Closed at the 60.5 but I can see further rises next week. There was good volume near the top today. The market was down but AGM had agood rise. There may be more fund buying next week too. But then again I am often wrong.


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## ghosta (5 January 2007)

Im with Nioka. Not because I can predict short term trends, but because Nioka say its likely to go up. Hes not wrong very often when he posts on this forum.


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## Sean K (5 January 2007)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Im with Nioka. Not because I can predict short term trends, but *because Nioka say its likely to go up*. Hes not wrong very often when he posts on this forum.



I just can't help myself here ghosta. Please, DYOR. This does not include counting Noika as a stockbroker/analyst. 

This seems to be a good company digging up a good type of dirt but please, check everything everyone says on this and every other forum. 

If you haven't already, go through just this in detail:

www.allegiance-mining.com.au

All the best!


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## ghosta (5 January 2007)

Since when has research been an indicator of daily movements unless theres an announcement etc. Fair dinkum some people are idiots!


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## Sean K (5 January 2007)

ghosta said:
			
		

> Since when has research been an indicator of daily movements unless theres an announcement etc. Fair dinkum some people are idiots!



Yes, you are right, sorry, I am an idiot. You should just follow Noika. I think I'm going to sell my Grandma over the weekend to pour into this one, because Noika said. 



			
				nioka said:
			
		

> But then again I am often wrong.


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## ghosta (5 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yes, you are right, sorry, I am an idiot. You should just follow Noika. I think I'm going to sell my Grandma over the weekend to pour into this one, because Noika said.




Nioka has been trading in and out of AGM for sometime now. He has the uncanny knack of picking the right moment to move in and out. He is not a Financial Adviser. As he said he could be wrong.

I have no idea how to predict daily trends. In the absence of any research to indicate one way or another most people simply guess. Some people, like Nioka have a good instinct for picking a trend. But hes not always right as he pointed out.

I dont recall him suggesting you sell your grandmother. Nor has he ever recommended anyone try to do this silly thing.


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## nioka (6 January 2007)

AGM ,in my opinion, is another "Sally Malay". SMY was good to me going from 32c to over $2.20 in a couple of years. Not an overnight bonanza but a good sound investment. SMY was hedged at a low price as a condition of finance. AGM does not have that hedging, although it could do with some now at the current prices, and will be selling at higher prices than SMY has had to date. There will be market variations but I am expecting a steady climb to the commencement of production and another boost then.
 Unless you detest your grandmother there is no share worth as much. There is always some risk. I had GYM when their mine collapsed, bought more to average down and then they had a fire. Result; almost a total write off. 
 Slow and steady wins the race and the ride is more enjoyable.


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## joeljp (6 January 2007)

Nioka and Ghosta, speaking of hedging, do you know at what price will Jinchuan buy Nickel from AGM for the next 10 yrs? I doubt that it will be at spot.


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## ghosta (6 January 2007)

JoelJp- the contract with Jinchuan is unhedged. The price relates to the spot price of nickel when the concentrate is loaded on the ship.


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## joeljp (7 January 2007)

Hi Ghosta, you're absolutely right. You do know AGM well! That's great news that the price is unhedged. At the current spot price or even half that, we will all be ver well rewarded   

I've just been going some of AGM's presentation this year. I noticed on one of slides that Saxon is actually outside AGM's current leased chunk of land. Is that accurate?


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## chicken (8 January 2007)

Well...you really dont know what you are saying..SAXON is only 300 meters from our exsisting mine and you will find that AGM would not go on someone elses land to drill...man you should do some research before posting...OR ARE YOU TRYING TO BUY SOME CHEAP STOCK......Ghosta you make a comment here otherwise people think its a ramp.....


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## ghosta (8 January 2007)

joeljp said:
			
		

> I've just been going some of AGM's presentation this year. I noticed on one of slides that Saxon is actually outside AGM's current leased chunk of land. Is that accurate?




Saxon is definitely inside AGMs exploration lease. But it may not be inside the Avebury mining lease. Not sure of the technicalities, but the mining lease is only about 500 ha in size. 
So to start a new mine AGM have to apply to the mines dept for a mining lease. I suppose this is a revenue raising thing. But for AGM it will be almost automatic,  when they apply for one it will be granted pronto, no hold ups with the paperwork. Why do I say this- they are the second biggest company operating fully in Tasmania behind Gunns, and are a very environmentally responsible company, which helps. The State Govt loves AGM A LOT.


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## joeljp (8 January 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> Well...you really dont know what you are saying..SAXON is only 300 meters from our exsisting mine and you will find that AGM would not go on someone elses land to drill...man you should do some research before posting...OR ARE YOU TRYING TO BUY SOME CHEAP STOCK......Ghosta you make a comment here otherwise people think its a ramp.....




Hi Chicken, i'm not trying to ramp the stock either way. I'm only going by what I read in the 3rd Qtr Activities & Cashfolow Report, Page 8 (27 Oct 06). The drill holes were marked outside AGM's mining lease (you can check for yourself) and Ghosta has made it clear that it's within AGM's exploration lease. Like Ghosta, I'm sure if it's a goer, it will only be a formality for AGM to be granted full access. 

Btw, I'm holding quite a substantial amount of AGM shares and wouldn't want to see it go backward, I can assure you


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## Sean K (8 January 2007)

This might be forming a bit of a pennant here. Consolidating after the big jump last week. Technically, a $0.70 ish short term price target if it breaks up. 

(not holding)


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## GOYCO (8 January 2007)

Kennas

That's a bit of a Claytons price target don't you think? If this or If that then we can all make predictions

cheers


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## Sean K (9 January 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Kennas
> 
> That's a bit of a Claytons price target don't you think? If this or If that then we can all make predictions
> 
> cheers



Technically, when a stock breaks up from a pole and pennant the length of the pole is the length of the next leg up. It's just a probability and not exact, but it's a legit way of putting in a price target using TA. I've seen it happen a few times if the planets line up. 

Here is a description of a *pole and pennant * formation from chartschool.

*Sharp Move*: To be considered a continuation pattern, there should be evidence of a prior trend. Flags and pennants require evidence of a sharp advance or decline on heavy volume. These moves usually occur on heavy volume and can contain gaps. This move usually represents the first leg of a significant advance or decline and the flag/pennant is merely a pause. 
*Flagpole*: The flagpole is the distance from the first resistance or support break to the high or low of the flag/pennant. The sharp advance (or decline) that forms the flagpole should break a trend line or resistance/support level. A line extending up from this break to the high of the flag/pennant forms the flagpole. 
*Flag:* A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the move was down, then the flag would slope up. Because flags are usually too short in duration to actually have reaction highs and lows, the price action just needs to be contained within two parallel trend lines. 
*Pennant:* A pennant is a small symmetrical triangle that begins wide and converges as the pattern matures (like a cone). The slope is usually neutral. Sometimes there will not be specific reaction highs and lows from which to draw the trend lines and the price action should just be contained within the converging trend lines. 
*Duration: * Flags and pennants are short-term patterns that can last from 1 to 12 weeks. There is some debate on the timeframe and some consider 8 weeks to be pushing the limits for a reliable pattern. Ideally, these patterns will form between 1 and 4 weeks. Once a flag becomes more than 12 weeks old, it would be classified as a rectangle. A pennant more than 12 weeks old would turn into a symmetrical triangle. The reliability of patterns that fall between 8 and 12 weeks is debatable. 
*Break:* For a bullish flag or pennant, a break above resistance signals that the previous advance has resumed. For a bearish flag or pennant, a break below support signals that the previous decline has resumed. 
*Volume:* Volume should be heavy during the advance or decline that forms the flagpole. Heavy volume provides legitimacy for the sudden and sharp move that creates the flagpole. An expansion of volume on the resistance (support) break lends credence to the validity of the formation and the likelihood of continuation. 
*Targets:* The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.  

*This fits the criteria at the moment IMO. * I wouldn't call it a 'Claytons' target at all. 

I encourage all members who have any questions on basic TA and price targets that may be set using TA to do some reading up on it. There are many sites you can visit (just google it) and the regular one I use for reference is:

www.stockcharts.com/education

(not holding AGM)


----------



## jj0007 (9 January 2007)

Use to do a bit of TA when I was short term trading.  Only indicator I found reliable was the RSI which gave "overbought" and "oversold" signals.  RSI was above 70 the last few trading days hence a retrace was expected.  It will jigsaw up and down but I'm pretty confident that throughout all this activity we will see higher highs and higher lows.  That's all that counts in the long run.    

I'm in for the long haul and don't really pay too much attention to charts for this particular stock.


----------



## chicken (9 January 2007)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> Use to do a bit of TA when I was short term trading.  Only indicator I found reliable was the RSI which gave "overbought" and "oversold" signals.  RSI was above 70 the last few trading days hence a retrace was expected.  It will jigsaw up and down but I'm pretty confident that throughout all this activity we will see higher highs and higher lows.  That's all that counts in the long run.
> 
> I'm in for the long haul and don't really pay too much attention to charts for this particular stock.



Your last sentence here is what I am doing.....I own a good no of these and they are now..no trade and wait and see...sitting on a 200% profit now...and by years end may be a hugh profit....I like that.....


----------



## ghosta (10 January 2007)

Looks like a buying opportunity coming up- close to 50c.


----------



## GOYCO (10 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> This might be forming a bit of a pennant here. Consolidating after the big jump last week. Technically, a $0.70 ish short term price target if it breaks up.
> 
> (not holding)




Obviously all the charting techniques and explainations of TA are highly accurate LOLOLOL

now 53 cents

cheers


----------



## Sean K (10 January 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Obviously all the charting techniques and explainations of TA are highly accurate LOLOLOL
> 
> now 53 cents
> 
> cheers



They're just probabilities Goyco. You should know that. And because the formation has perhaps broken down the analysis is no longer valid.


----------



## nioka (10 January 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Obviously all the charting techniques and explainations of TA are highly accurate LOLOLOL
> 
> now 53 cents
> 
> cheers



There are always fluctuations in the daily SP. This does not mean that the average trend is not rising. Be thankful that these variations in price allow entry into a good stock at a reasonable price. This is the reason I do not have stop loss arrangements in place.Sometimes you can be stopped out of a good stock. Nothing has changed in the operations of the company which is a worry to me. The price of nickel has an effect. Remember that the company is another day closer to production. I remain a true believer.


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## GOYCO (10 January 2007)

IMHO I believe that this company has a fantastic future. I am a value investor and don't believe that anyone can acurately pedict with certainty or even high probability the short term price movements of any company. ( although some claim to do so). In saying that I do use some parts of TA, such as chaikin money flow, and the 30 and 90 day exponential moving averages to give me opprtunities to buy. This company has some real assests and IMO are udervalued at this time. It does make sense that as AGM get closer to production then those assests are looking more likely to be exploited and thus money coming through the door. IMO I agree with the EPS figures posted by Ghosta in earlier posts. On those figures and production imminent then I think this company is a good buy at these levels. I hope this clears up my position. Charts give me headaches

cheers


----------



## GOYCO (10 January 2007)

correction on the exponential moving averages I actually use 11day and 31 day. not 30 day and 90 day


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## ghosta (10 January 2007)

Does anybody understand this-

http://www.ragingbull.altavista.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01229&read=9289

I think it means that the present reduction in nickel prices is due to an accounting adjustment.

If this is the case things will return to normal soon.

AGM will follow. The timid will be gone; the share needs a purge every now and then.


----------



## bigt (10 January 2007)

Yep, they are selling the high performers (nickel, zinc etc) and buying the poor performers (aluminium etc)...not sure if this means that the prices of the high performers will rebound, but I would expect some reversal once the whole process has been completed.


----------



## Kauri (10 January 2007)

bigt said:
			
		

> yep, they are selling the high performers (nickel, zinc etc) and buying the poor performers (aluminium etc)...not sure if this means that the prices of the high performers will rebound, but I would expect some reversal once the whole process has been completed.




   "While overall copper and aluminium seem to be attempting to build a base above Monday's lows confidence may not be strong enough to encourage consumers back in force yet," said basemetals.com analyst William Adams. Sentiment this year has been generally bearish, with some traders considering this a short-term phenomenon. "The market this morning has been a little jittery," said the trader, "but January always tends to be an aggressive month with a correction." Nickel and zinc, after falling on Monday after the Dow commodity-index re-weighting, have steadied a little. Zinc had suffered a slight fall in early Tuesday trading to be bid at 3,635/mt at 1000 GMT, after closing Monday on $3,720/mt, which nickel eased to $31,200/mt from the previous $31,400/mt. The base metals market is still being characterized by weakness in lead and copper, even though the market has begun to stabilize a little.


----------



## GOYCO (10 January 2007)

As always the long term price of any commodity will be determinned by the forces of supply and demand..Economics 101


----------



## GOYCO (10 January 2007)

Can anyone please tell me where I can find the stock levels and no of days supply for Nickel?
Cheers


----------



## joeljp (10 January 2007)

The stock level can be found at http://www.lme.com/dataprices_daily_metal.asp (london metal exchange), scroll down the page and you'll see all the metal stock levels. I don't know how many days supply that is though.


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## GOYCO (10 January 2007)

By my calculations 1138600 tonnes a year ( 2001 usage figures) probably higher. 4000 tonnes in stock equates to approx 1 day of nickel available. Can anyone seriously see this situation changing in the near future? Is there any new supply coming on within the next 12 months which is going to affect these figures? The outlook for nickel and AGM seems to be sound for the time being. Would be interested in others points of view as to the direction of the nickel price.

Cheers


----------



## joeljp (10 January 2007)

I don't know about other parts of the world but in Australia, I believe AGM will be the only new nickel producer this year. I read somewhere that BHP is in the process of commissioning a new nickel mine out in WA, which happened to be the direct path of the cyclone over the w/end. Hopefully, it will have put them back a bit.. LoL. SMY's announcements recently also stated that they will be producing more over the next two years. However, in terms of the global consumption, what additional nickel that will come out of Australia over the next couple of years will be marginal, certainly not enough to make the supply and demand curves meet again any time soon.


----------



## nioka (10 January 2007)

Novski said:
			
		

> Any opinions on this in the short term/next week...since it's had a very good week or so.
> 
> My view is that it will retrace down especially if it closes at 60.5 which will create 2 short term peaks at 60.5.



You were right and I was wrong.  I'm still happy to wait now for the commencement of production.


----------



## ghosta (10 January 2007)

joeljp said:
			
		

> I don't know about other parts of the world but in Australia, I believe AGM will be the only new nickel producer this year. I read somewhere that BHP is in the process of commissioning a new nickel mine out in WA, which happened to be the direct path of the cyclone over the w/end. Hopefully, it will have put them back a bit.. LoL. SMY's announcements recently also stated that they will be producing more over the next two years. However, in terms of the global consumption, what additional nickel that will come out of Australia over the next couple of years will be marginal, certainly not enough to make the supply and demand curves meet again any time soon.




There are two major new nickel mines scheduled to start production in 2008.
Both are laterite nickel mines, with production at both aimed at 50 000 tonnes.

One is BHPs Ravensthorpe mine, plagued by delays and huge cost overruns. 

The other is Inco's mine in New Caledonia (French Territory). It has been stopped in the French Courts. Apparently they planned to dump acid waste straight into the sea. Inco gave the natives a 20% interest in the mine hoping they would go along with whatever they wanted to do. The natives want it out. Even if they can appease the majority of natives there may still be sabatauge problems.

Tony HR says both these mines are needed to come on line to meet demand, which is increasing at 50 000 tonnes per year, and if they do come on stream demand will still not be met in the long term.

It would be unusual if these mines met there present targets. Laterite mines are very difficult to get operating properly, and could take years to meet production targets.

Jinchuan now produces 100 000 tonnes of nickel per year. It plans to increase production by 50 000 tonnes by 2008, and a further 50 000 tonnes by 2010.
So the amount produced by these two new large projects could be swallowed up by Jinchuan alone.

Many Australian mines have a short (5-10) year life span. New discoveries are being made, but not even enough to replace mines due to go out of production.

It is possible that supply may meet demand for a short while if these two large mines start up sucessfuly together. But if prices drop too much they will cut production, as laterite mines produce expensive nickel concentrate.


----------



## ghosta (11 January 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> You were right and I was wrong.  I'm still happy to wait now for the commencement of production.




Novski was right only because copper prices dropped, creating fear in the metals market generally, and the rebalancing the DJ/AIG Commodity Index gave the drop double impetus.

Pot luck Novski- nothing to do with twin peaks forming.


----------



## Novski (11 January 2007)

It's funny how these indicators correspond with the fundamentals so often. You'd think the chart knew what the fundamentals were going to be, rather than the other way around.


----------



## nioka (11 January 2007)

Novski said:
			
		

> It's funny how these indicators correspond with the fundamentals so often. You'd think the chart knew what the fundamentals were going to be, rather than the other way around.



Sometiomes it is the belief that the charts are gospel causes day traders to react in a way which then has the effect expected. However if the fundamentals are sound the situation is quickly reversed. Check out what happens in this case or refer to the SP of ADI as an example.


----------



## ghosta (11 January 2007)

JoelJP- heres a link to a site which talks about future worldwide nickel production and prices.

http://www.mineweb.net/junior_mining/565328.htm


----------



## Novski (11 January 2007)

(In reponse to nioka)

Yes, that's true, if share price moved with indicators every time, we'd all be tech analysts and making a very good living out of it.

I got a little ahead of myself with my prediction, in that i assumed that the price was going to drop when it formed the second spike.I took into account the drop in volume here also.  But like you say nioka, if there was some good news that evening, the price would likely have not formed the second spike and just continued on past 60.5c the next day.


----------



## jj0007 (11 January 2007)

Ghosta,  just looking through your calculations made on the 30/12/2006.  What do you mean by this?



			
				ghosta said:
			
		

> The calculations err very much on the conservative side, and assume Jinchuans profits are maintained at 25% of the nickel metal price. This may be on the high side, any reduction goes directly into the earnings per share.




I thought AGM would be selling concerntrates to Jinchuan on spot price.  What impact dose Jinchuans profits have on AGM's earnings?

TIA


----------



## ghosta (11 January 2007)

JJ007- when calculating the price AGM gets for its nickel concentrate we need to start with the price of nickel metal, then deduct all Jinchuans costs (freight, smeltering, admin and PROFIT).  The reason for having to do it this way is that neither AGM or Jinchuan want the information made public. The formula that they use to arrive at the price paid is confidenntial too, so we have to guess. It uses the spot price of nickel metal as a component of the formula.

In my estimates I allowed the profit margin for Jinchuan to be 25% of the price of nickel metal and other costs $4000US (from memory). These are likely to be far too generous; we know that at $10000US nickelprice the operation is still profitable, and AGMs cost around $5000, leaving less than $5000 for jinchauans expenses and profit. Probably 10% and $2000US is closer to the mark, but I wanted to be conservative.

Does that explain things?


----------



## jj0007 (11 January 2007)

Yep. thanks  very much.


----------



## ghosta (12 January 2007)

Excellent news today- mining lease to be applied for at Melba flats!


----------



## savtin (12 January 2007)

Ghosta,

I too thought the announcement was good, however the market didn't seem to bother with it???? Strange???

AGM will add Melba Flats as an open cut mine to add to further production........all very good to me.........thought the announcement would have had a positive impact on the SP? 

What did you think?


----------



## ghosta (12 January 2007)

Can you remember the reaction to the Saxon discovery? Dont see a sudden peak on the graph immediatley following the announcement.
Yes it was dissapointing. I thought the share had changed, made the big time.
The truth is it hasnt. Its still an unknown share. Sure, lots more people know about it compared to 2 years ago, but in reality many of those that have heard of it dissmiss it as some junior company, very risky.
But this will change. Ive often said  that it wont be till the first annual report following production. The only reason it will attract attention at that stage is it will be so unique in that it will be remarkably profitable.
Then it wont be ignored.


----------



## jj0007 (13 January 2007)

The saxon and melba drill holes are promising leads.  I don't know whether you can classify them as a major "discovery" yet.  Needs many more drill holes before the market will apply significant value to these two areas.


----------



## ghosta (14 January 2007)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> The saxon and melba drill holes are promising leads.  I don't know whether you can classify them as a major "discovery" yet.  Needs many more drill holes before the market will apply significant value to these two areas.




True, but how many other stock have gone beserk on far less!


----------



## savtin (14 January 2007)

GHOSTA,

You are spot on,  it is what I have been saying all along......with everything they have announced to date other companies would have been valued up by a bigger margin............the deal with China when it was announced should have sent it to 50-60 cents ,   the saxon discovery (even though not confirmed) would normally have sent a stock 30-40 cents higher.....and then add a sniff at melba and you have well 5-10 cents..........MAN this stock is cheap............its known reserves values the inground asset at just under 4 billion dollars at todays nickel prices () and we know there is a chance that  $40,000/tonne may be reached plus the stuff ELSEWHERE and you have a company with assets closer to 6 Billion going for a measly $375 million......................


----------



## falcon55 (14 January 2007)

savtin...

what do you think would be a good entry price, looking at the chart, .57 looks a bit high


----------



## savtin (14 January 2007)

falcon55,

I had originally told my brother about AGM when they were about 25 cents and he got involved then and got out at about 38 cents and was quie pleased.................only last week he spoke to me and said " gees i think I got out to early" and I said that I believed the AGM run hadn't even really begun yet and so I said to him when AGM was 56 cents that it was still cheap......................and he bought again back in a 56 cents...... .....


take it this way I am seriously thinking about topping up now even though I am heavily invested in them from when they were in their early teens.


good price now ..............but like i told my brother you have to think long-term not short term............the day after he bought them the price when back to touch 52 cents and settled at 53 cents.........he was on the phone winging and I told him to look a little beyond one day, one week, one month...even one year.............the next day they bounced back with a vengence.........AGM will not be under one buck next year.............I think any way.


----------



## Sean K (14 January 2007)

savtin said:
			
		

> falcon55,
> 
> I had originally told my brother about AGM when they were about 25 cents and he got involved then and got out at about 38 cents and was quie pleased.................only last week he spoke to me and said " gees i think I got out to early" and I said that I believed the AGM run hadn't even really begun yet and so I said to him when AGM was 56 cents that it was still cheap......................and he bought again back in a 56 cents...... .....
> 
> ...



Savtin,

Be cautious about giving tips to family - even when they have a brain. My bro is one of the most qualified people in Australia to be giving tips, but he would not give me a definitive 'tip' because he knows that if it went sour (as many, many do) that there'd be some bad blood. Likewise, I do not ask him for definitive tips. Tread carefully with giving friends and family tips. And receiving them......

All the best with AGM. Looks like a good long term value stock to me. 

(not holding)


----------



## falcon55 (14 January 2007)

thanks for that savtin.

I'll put it on my watch list and let you know what happens


----------



## ghosta (15 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Be cautious about giving tips to family - even when they have a brain..................Tread carefully with giving friends and family tips. And receiving them......(not holding)




While I would normally agree with you on this point, the case of  AGM is quite different, even now. In the last couple of years AGM has had no risk and always was a dead certainty to go up. Ive passed on the AGM tip to all my friends, workmates and family. As I pointed out to them heres a once in a lifetime opportunity to double your money (at least) with no risk. A small percentage bought shares and they all have doubled their money....

I consider I would have been extremely selfish and cruel not to have passed on the AGM information- if they dont buy shares thats fine, at least they were told of the opportunity...


----------



## nioka (19 January 2007)

Novski said:
			
		

> Any opinions on this in the short term/next week...since it's had a very good week or so.
> 
> My view is that it will retrace down especially if it closes at 60.5 which will create 2 short term peaks at 60.5.



Back to 60.5 again. Where to now??


----------



## Sean K (19 January 2007)

I just went and got my haircut and the barber told me to buy this! 

I think he got the tip off an uncle who is also a cabbie.


----------



## Novski (19 January 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> Back to 60.5 again. Where to now??




I'm not expert nioka, just using the breakout method with voulume and then watching other indicatores for shorter term sells and re-entries.

I sold AGM on second 60.5c peak due to the 2 peaks and decreasing volume.

I bought it back at 55.5c before it went down to 52's(in a bit early) Price gap told me to wait until 52 but i think at the time it was at 55.5c there were not many sellers so i thought it might go up.

Now, I guess we're looking for some volume to break the short 60.5c resistance which appears to be developing. It's consolidating with poor volume so i'm taking this as a good sign. Increasing volume should break it out of 60.5c

A positive ann would be nice.

What do you think?

Novski


----------



## cuttlefish (19 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I just went and got my haircut and the barber told me to buy this!
> 
> I think he got the tip off an uncle who is also a cabbie.




you kidding around or is that for real?


----------



## Sean K (19 January 2007)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> you kidding around or is that for real?



Fair dinkim. Not the cabbie bit, but the barber also told me about a uranium stock to buy - somewhere in Sth America apparently. The interesting thing about the AGM tip was that he didn't know they had a mine in Tasmania.


----------



## nioka (19 January 2007)

Novski said:
			
		

> I'm not expert nioka, just using the breakout method with voulume and then watching other indicatores for shorter term sells and re-entries.
> 
> I sold AGM on second 60.5c peak due to the 2 peaks and decreasing volume.
> 
> ...




A positive announcement would help. I thought about selling at 60c+ and buying back in on a retreat but I remembered those who were waiting to get back in at the 30c mark. I decided to sit and wait with what I have. The falls will get less and less and the rises more and more is my guess.


----------



## Kauri (19 January 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> A positive announcement would help. I thought about selling at 60c+ and buying back in on a retreat but I remembered those who were waiting to get back in at the 30c mark. I decided to sit and wait with what I have. The falls will get less and less and the rises more and more is my guess.




   Is just tracing out the expected W4, has still got a W5 to go yet.


----------



## Kauri (19 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> 21/12/06...44c....Was one of my early shots at E/W.. am still holding.. looking for around the 60c mark initially.. my *stop* is still around 33c but I think I would act before then if it started dropping.




  Updated now we seem to have completed W3.. W4 not definite, may be a more complex correction yet?? Won't post my *stop* this time and then it won't be confused with a buy...


----------



## chicken (20 January 2007)

Kauri,....thanks for that..looks like next stop 78cents.....must buy more of these..holding only 100k at 16cents...might get another 100k at market as my 1st parcel so cheap....looking good this one...also thanks Ghosta for all that info...if by years end the price is $1.50...i shall have $300K....so I think I will do that as AGM will start producing this year....and if the Saxon stacks up to the beards prediction.look out,..this is looking real sweet in my books...happy trading everyone....


----------



## Kauri (20 January 2007)

Chook,
           As I read in Nick Radges forum recently a failed flag often becomes a triangle, which would tie in with a more complex W4 correction. I am waiting for it to resolve itself one way or the other, hence I have so far only labelled it a tentative W4. But whatever happens I do expect higher moves in the medium term. Take care chook, there are plenty of foxes out there.


----------



## nioka (22 January 2007)

The 60.5c resistance has been broken this morning with reasonable volume. Where are the chartists to suggest the next resistance point?


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> The 60.5c resistance has been broken this morning with reasonable volume. Where are the chartists to suggest the next resistance point?



No resistance points left, should just be searching for fair value. If it does hold above $0.60 then that should form a decent support line.


----------



## ezyTrader (22 January 2007)

Had a touch of 63. 
Need to break 63 first, imo. EOD should be interesting. Volume substantially higher than Friday.


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2007)

Where I am looking for in the med term, with a stop set @ ***


----------



## ghosta (22 January 2007)

There is a chance that later this week AGM could break the 1997 high of 69.5c!
YeeHaaar!


----------



## Caliente (22 January 2007)

evening gents. this is a solid movement in the right direction with a bullish high close - my favourite  

Strapped in to take advantage of the re-rating.

position - hold.


----------



## joeljp (22 January 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> Kauri,....thanks for that..looks like next stop 78cents.....must buy more of these..holding only 100k at 16cents...might get another 100k at market as my 1st parcel so cheap....looking good this one...also thanks Ghosta for all that info...if by years end the price is $1.50...i shall have $300K....so I think I will do that as AGM will start producing this year....and if the Saxon stacks up to the beards prediction.look out,..this is looking real sweet in my books...happy trading everyone....




Chicken, did you manage to get in before the 10% rise today? I hope you did.


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2007)

joeljp said:
			
		

> Chicken, did you manage to get in before the 10% rise today? I hope you did.




   The chook has had his truck parked under the grizzly for months..


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## nioka (22 January 2007)

I have said on this forum before that I see AGM as the next Sally Malay. They are moving along similar paths.A year ago SMY was at about the same SP as AGM is today. Todays price for SMY was as high as $2.55 based on it,s current production, hedged low average product price, anticipated production, and number of shares issued. I can see no reason why AGM will not have a similar price once production commences.
I am often wrong, I am near the bottom of the comp this month (to prove the point) and I have a few "dogs" in my holdings but AGM isn't one of them.


----------



## chicken (23 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> The chook has had his truck parked under the grizzly for months..



Kauri..I secured a few more at 60c....but got now a great holding of a good no of them...see what Ghosta said....THIS WILL INDEED make us the $$$$..I have to see a 1 in front before maybe selling any...hope everyone got on...this is going to be a great ride...hoping for another 10% increase today


----------



## ghosta (23 January 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> Kauri..I secured a few more at 60c....but got now a great holding of a good no of them...see what Ghosta said....THIS WILL INDEED make us the $$$$..I have to see a 1 in front before maybe selling any...hope everyone got on...this is going to be a great ride...hoping for another 10% increase today




Chicken look for $2 sign before selling any. It will be there next year for sure.


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## chris1983 (23 January 2007)

Got my girlfriend 10,000 of these in the mid 30's.  Thats the best way to make your girl fall more in love with you.  She has shopping in her sights now. haha


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## ghosta (23 January 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Got my girlfriend 10,000 of these in the mid 30's.  Thats the best way to make your girl fall more in love with you.  She has shopping in her sights now. haha




Take it from me, you have made an error of judgement here. The last thing you want to do is encourage your girlfriend to go shopping. She'll want to do it all the time. Its addictive. Sounds like its too late now......unless you can convince her to hold those shares till they reach $3.


----------



## chris1983 (23 January 2007)

Mate shes been shopping for way too long.  She was addicted a long time ago. haha


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## GOYCO (23 January 2007)

Another important milestone reached today..All is travelling well. Really interested in Melba..The main reason I was put onto AGM years ago was Melba flats, hardly even gets a mention these days. $3 does sound better than 1 or 2

cheers


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## ghosta (23 January 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Another important milestone reached today..All is travelling well. Really interested in Melba..The main reason I was put onto AGM years ago was Melba flats, hardly even gets a mention these days. $3 does sound better than 1 or 2
> 
> cheers




Tony HR keeps mentioning that they need to drill deeply in the area. I think he thinks the mother lode is there underneath. A big pile of high grade stuff.
Hope its there!


----------



## Halba (23 January 2007)

this is worth $1.20

basis: see peer valuation with WSA


----------



## zombie_ninja (23 January 2007)

Is AGM the only new Nickel mine that's coming online this year? What about AUZ? Don't they produce Nickel as well?

I am just surprised at the difference in price between AUZ and AGM.

Then again, I'm new to mining stocks and how their share prices are evaluated.


----------



## Sean K (23 January 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> this is worth $1.20
> 
> basis: see peer valuation with WSA



Are you saying the market caps v resources compare? 

Has anyone else done a comparison?


----------



## ghosta (23 January 2007)

savtin said:
			
		

> Wonder when we will see the SP re-ratings like other stocks when your are moving up in 8 -10cents intervals..................or am I just dreaming and have to accept that AGM is to remain in the 30's .................................




Remember this Satvin in Sept last year. Its happenning....!


----------



## Halba (23 January 2007)

yup WSA has about 100,000t, and mkt value about $650m

AGM has about this same amount, mkt cap $470M. It can theoretically go up by another $200m. AGM does not have hedging, WSA have hedged some initial production. It can be argued both have identical production profiles and exploration prospects. Also add another $100m due for the fact it gets into production(and WSA increasing their cap for the same reason). Mkt cap may end up about $700-750M when fully producing, which reflects a possible cash surplus of about $220M pre tax provided ni @ $13-14/lb


SMY is about $520M mkt cap and it produces about ~10,000t per annum. However its cash costs is over $5-6/lb. AGM's cash costs are about $2.20C1 or total maybe around $3.50USD. Thats about 1/2 the cash costs. Also SMY's reserves would be nearly 90,000t (and growing) taking into account the latest drill results. SO AGM bit higher reserves, but much lower cash costs means if all else is equal its mkt value should be a lot higher than SMY (less SMY's cash it gets from this boom period). SMY also has some minor hedging, but essentially its pretty much finished. MCR also has hedging and identical mkt cap/reserves profiles but again similar or a bit lower costs to SMY.


----------



## savtin (23 January 2007)

Ghosta,

It is great to see...............and when this enters the ASX200 watch all the fund managers scramble to buy it for less than a buck..................it is definitely looking great at the moment..............all we need now is some encouraging drill results from saxon or melba and this will go crazy.......


----------



## joeljp (23 January 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Got my girlfriend 10,000 of these in the mid 30's.  Thats the best way to make your girl fall more in love with you.  She has shopping in her sights now. haha




Chris, you'd be better off convince your g/f to park more money into AGM instead of shopping. You both will be shopping in style by mid 08!


----------



## Halba (23 January 2007)

lol chris

i got 30,000

best of all no gf so i keep it all to myself!!!


----------



## ghosta (23 January 2007)

savtin said:
			
		

> Ghosta,
> 
> It is great to see...............and when this enters the ASX200 watch all the fund managers scramble to buy it for less than a buck........




I dont know much about the ASX200- obviously you think it will make a lot of difference when AGM becomes part of it- do fund managers only buy ASX200 stocks?

 Do you reckon they will even notice AGM has become part of it?


----------



## nioka (23 January 2007)

ghosta said:
			
		

> I dont know much about the ASX200- obviously you think it will make a lot of difference when AGM becomes part of it- do fund managers only buy ASX200 stocks?
> 
> Do you reckon they will even notice AGM has become part of it?



Some funds can't invest in stocks unless they are listed in the asx200. Also the leverage is better in shares included in that index than for those that aren't. It will create a demand for the stock if and when it gets there.


----------



## Sean K (23 January 2007)

I might be wrong here, but I have heard that going into the ASX200 isn't necessarily great for a stock...... The theory is that funds have to buy, who are longer term holders, and therefore the stock becomes less liquid with potentially lower volume and steadier, albeit relative price action. The stock wouldn't necessarily therefore have massive gains or losses in any short term period.  I remember this being bandied about when WOR was admitted..anyone else hear that? I might be totally off track here.


----------



## joeljp (24 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I might be wrong here, but I have heard that going into the ASX isn't necessarily great for a stock...... The theory is that funds have to buy, who are longer term holders, and therefore the stock becomes less liquid with potentially lower volume and steadier, albeit relative price action. The stock wouldn't necessarily therefore have massive gains or losses in any short term period.  I remember this being bandied about when WOR was admitted..anyone else hear that? I might be totally off track here.




I don't think liquidity will be a problem for AGM given the amount of shares issued. Even on real quiet days, it always manages to trade close to a million shares. Yesterday, I think it was close to 10m. It can only be good for AGM once it's on the fund managers' radar.


----------



## ghosta (25 January 2007)

So when will AGM go into the ASX200 list?


----------



## joeljp (25 January 2007)

ghosta said:
			
		

> So when will AGM go into the ASX200 list?




I read somewhere that the re-rating of who's who in ASX200 & 300 happens twice a year, March and September. I could be wrong.


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

Quarterly report due out this week.
Wonder if there will be any news on Saxon?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (29 January 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> I have said on this forum before that I see AGM as the next Sally Malay. They are moving along similar paths.A year ago SMY was at about the same SP as AGM is today. Todays price for SMY was as high as $2.55 based on it,s current production, hedged low average product price, anticipated production, and number of shares issued. I can see no reason why AGM will not have a similar price once production commences.
> I am often wrong, I am near the bottom of the comp this month (to prove the point) and I have a few "dogs" in my holdings but AGM isn't one of them.




I fail to see the comparrison with AGM and SMY a year ago. Nickle has come along way since then and so has AGM's share price.

SMY has a third of AGM's shares on Issue.
AGM's forecasted tonnages of Nickle are 8500 tn, with a current market cap of about 450mil, their EPS isn't that flash considering their peers.

AGM's a late starter in a Nickle market that is way extended from a year ago. SMY is now in a position to have profitted from high Nickle prices, deliver on exploration, time for management to prove themselves and deliver on their hedges (which they did so as not to dilute their shares on issue and keep the banks at arms length). 
They were in the midst early (cashed up) and their future is bright, Nickle still needs to hold up though!.

The market has factored the current Nickle spot into AGM's share price (hence their Market Cap) and then some. AGM are yet to deliver on any forcasted tonnages, mine the dirt or prove their plant, management prove itself, deliver on some future exploration targets and manage a contractor such as Barminco.

AGM's present SP is a premium on its peers EPS's and their are so many unknowns yet to be proven.

Each to their own though, I hope they go up a bucketload.


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> AGM are yet to deliver on any forcasted tonnages, mine the dirt or prove their plant, management prove itself, deliver on some future exploration targets and manage a contractor such as Barminco.




I do wonder how people can be so uninformed as to suggest that AGMs management has not yet proved itself. Im not sure what else they need to do to prove it! 
Probably the best and most experienced nickel managment in Australia and they cop this **** from people...!!!!!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (29 January 2007)

I wasn't having a go,

It would be a given that all management is experienced. Isn't that why you advertise, check CV's and employ the most suitable people to the position.

The point was 'are they experienced in the management of the mine who's Company you hold shares in'. I was under the impression it wasn't ramped  and operational.


----------



## Kauri (29 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> *I was under the impression it wasn't ramped* and operational.




   Whaaaat!!!  He may be missing lately, but the chook frequents this thread often...


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I wasn't having a go,
> 
> It would be a given that all management is experienced. Isn't that why you advertise, check CV's and employ the most suitable people to the position.
> 
> The point was 'are they experienced in the management of the mine who's Company you hold shares in'. I was under the impression it wasn't ramped  and operational.




OK. Perhaps you should check their website, annual reports etc. Should give you a better idea what they have already achieved.

I think you might change your mind about the SP being "too high" too! I dont think there are too many people who are well informed about the company and its achievements would agree that it is!


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Whaaaat!!!  He may be missing lately, but the chook frequents this thread often...




Chicken informed us on Hotcopper Forums that he had been suspended for a week from this site. That was nearly a week ago......


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (29 January 2007)

Hmmmm........ Do these guys have an operational mine or not. Simple enough question.


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

Come on, you cant have made all those statements about AGM without having read at least the last announcement made by the company could you?

I think your credibility may suffer somewhat in asking that question.


----------



## Ken (29 January 2007)

are ghosta and chicken the same person????


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (29 January 2007)

Seriously the facts of the matter are per my original post, as you well know. They havent sold a pound of Nickle yet   The point made was a valid one and only my opinion, thats all I was offering!.  

Obviously you see value in AGM and thats the Nickler you chose, all the best with them  


A look at their management reveals nothing spectacular  although theyve had the noggin to utilize Barminco to move the dirt (they're a quality outfit), thats in their favour


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

We welcome informed debate on the AGM forum. But when you bag out AGM you should at least have done some rudimentry research.

Strange how when Chicken ramps up AGM without repeating his reasons why, he gets suspended from the Forum. But this character Bags out AGM without giving informed reasons he gets away scott free. Administrator- shouldnt he at least get a warning?


----------



## Ken (29 January 2007)

Ghosta I remember you knocking AGM at around 30 cents saying it was going nowhere.  Then when it went you changed your mind and said you actually owned AGM shares, and a heap of them.

You have just as much credabilty as the next person, which is none...


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (29 January 2007)

No bagging here, you're just too slippery to answer a simple question. 

If you're going to compare AGM to other Nicklers in value or make some projections on AGM's future share price as compared to the past price actions of its peers, at least make the reasoning stack up!


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

Oh dear...Ken why dont you read my posts again.....I have never said AGM was going nowhere.
Please be constructive on this forum.
I see ypou have taken sides with the ill informed one. Then talk about credibility? HA


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> No bagging here, you're just too slippery to answer a simple question.
> 
> If you're going to compare AGM to other Nicklers in value or make some projections on AGM's future share price as compared to the past price actions of its peers, at least make the reasoning stack up!




Exactly. Why dont you?

Incidently, I personally dont know much about SMY and hence wouldnt attempt to compare it with AGM in other than a general way. I know its ore concentrate is a lower quality and % than AGMs and the production costs are nearly double that of AGM, and that its likely that AGMs production will be much more than SMYs within a few years, but I cannot compare the SPs. 

Nioka made the original comparison.


----------



## chops_a_must (29 January 2007)

For arguments sake, what makes AGM worth more than say VRE? Whilst AGM isn't planning on production for a few years, VRE will be in production next quarter. I'd say that is a much fairer comparison.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (29 January 2007)

Really!, now your quoting forecasts of AGM as opposed to an actual producer cashing in on high Nickle prices ATM. You have missed the point entirely

I hope AGM delivers on their forecasts and you do well, its all about us punters making money....thats all. 

Sorry I posted on your AGM thread 

Chops,

I think AGM will be producing in the second half of 07, VRE will produce soon at Bronzewing (but thats gold), their Nickle interest with MCR is a while off production yet.


----------



## ghosta (29 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> For arguments sake, what makes AGM worth more than say VRE? Whilst AGM isn't planning on production for a few years, VRE will be in production next quarter. I'd say that is a much fairer comparison.




There are so many variables its difficult to make comparisons. But its even harder when you attempt to make comparisons without knowing much about one or both companies. When you make mistakes people like me will correct you and it sometimes make you look a little foolish. (Im talking about You in a general sense, not you personally). Best avoid comparisons unless you know both companies  well.

Nioka only made a very general comparison.


----------



## nioka (29 January 2007)

My comparison of AGM with SMY, while general, is based on my interpretations of information as I understand them. My interest in AGM came because I had good results investing in SMY while it was developing it's mine. I could see AGM going along similar lines. I agree that AGM will have to prove additional reserves but I believe it is on the way towards that end. It does have a larger share holding but I believe that is offset by a much lower cost of production and less hedging. It has a strong financial position I believe.


----------



## ghosta (30 January 2007)

GORO Project May be Scrapped?

News here of huge significance to AGM. If the GORO project WAS scrapped we can expect $50000US nickel prices until the next world recession, IMO.

http://www.mineweb.net/base_metals/601483.htm


----------



## Halba (30 January 2007)

ghosta there are other nickel mines like Ambatovy in Madagascar(online by late 2009/ 2010), Raventhorpe(online 2008)

both are >50,000t ni

This doesn't include the cumulative effect of 10,000tpa increases in production by every nickel miner on this planet

when pricing nickel stocks, they have about 2-3 good yrs left in the tank, after that prices decline somewhat, just look at zinc(declining) and copper(getting hammered), oil (declining) as examples of what commodities do after strong peaks

i won't be buying at the tops!


----------



## ghosta (30 January 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> ghosta there are other nickel mines like Ambatovy in Madagascar(online by late 2009/ 2010), Raventhorpe(online 2008)
> 
> both are >50,000t ni
> 
> ...




Thats fine- you can do whatever you like. But you are very mixed up about commodity prices- are you using 2 year old data? But I do agree that most producing nickel stock appear to be near their tops, and the best value about is in AGM.

Im just pleased Ive gone to the trouble to have done thorough research and will benefit from the high nickel prices over the next decade!

But for those who are interested in the nickel outlookfor the future, if the Goro project went ahead and all proposed future nickel projects came in on time, there may be a short period in 2010 when supply was close to meeting demand. This scenario is unlikely in any case, but if Goro didnt go ahead there would be no chance of supply meeting demand in the next decade unless there was a recession worldwide.


----------



## jet328 (30 January 2007)

ghosta said:
			
		

> But for those who are interested in the nickel outlookfor the future, if the Goro project went ahead and all proposed future nickel projects came in on time, there may be a short period in 2010 when supply was close to meeting demand. This scenario is unlikely in any case, but if Goro didnt go ahead there would be no chance of supply meeting demand in the next decade unless there was a recession worldwide.




Hi Ghosta,

I'm looking into AGM at the moment as a possible purchase. Can you post a link to your research above

Cheers


----------



## ghosta (30 January 2007)

Jet, there are numerous sites with this sort of information.
But these graphs illustrate what Im talking about.

http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainlesssteelandnickelcharts.shtml


----------



## ghosta (30 January 2007)

Anyone wishing to top up would be advised to take action soon. Today is likely to be the last day where high volumes are traded (>1.5m shares). 

As soon as the volume drops down the SP will be on the rise again if it continues to follow the established pattern.

Bear in mind also that the 4th Quarterly results are due out this week, possibly later today. If there are any positive Saxon drill results- watch the SP.


----------



## savtin (30 January 2007)

ghosta,

did you see the additional drill results for SAXON.....12.7 m at 1.2% 4 m at 1.7 % .....8 m at 1.2%.............it is all looking VERY good..........its amazing how the SP seems to ignore the good results..................also tony wants to increase production to 10,000 tonnes per year and the market has cotton wool in their ears or fogged up glasses.....................better for us .........top up time.............i bought some more yesterday ...looks like i will buy tomorrow some more tomorrow for a cheaper price...........mind you i have my shares from the early days 10cents to 15cents but still couldn't help feel that the SP has so much more to gain. Hence the top ups.

cheers
savtin

GO AGM


----------



## ghosta (30 January 2007)

Satvin, Im afraid there will be some people who will be unhappy with todays announcement. They expect Saxon drill results to be 100m intersection of 10% nickel, and anything less means its a dud.

What a few people dont realise is that it takes time to drill out a line of lode, which has areas with lots of nickel in it and areas with none. Sometimes its deeper than they are looking or a little further east or west. It took ten years to drill out Avebury yet now it should be possible in 3 months, according to some. The first months are the hardest as drilling has to show areas to drill next;its like putting a 100 piece jigsaw puzzle together  with only 3 pieces and expecting a recognisable picture.

Other people will say the announcements mean nothing really everything the same as it was 3 months ago.

Is there news of cost blowouts?
Is there news of delays in supply of equipment?
Is there news of miners striking?
Is there news of industrial accidents?
Is their news of environmental groups protesting?
Is their new of fianancers trying to pull out?
Is their a labour shortage?
etc etc

Well there is none of these at all. That in itself is amazing. 
Show me one- (just one) company trying to get a new mine into production who doesnt have at least two of the problems.

In my view the Quarterley report shows ALL is going to plan, you beauty! Yee Haar!


----------



## ezyTrader (2 February 2007)

ghosta,
I liked what I read.

Retracement seems to be over. Looking good so far...
Nice and steady she goes...


----------



## windwalker (7 February 2007)

I'm with you ezi - watching with interest
Cheers


----------



## ghosta (8 February 2007)

Well the charts look like the second downturn since the SP hit 70c is nearly over. This time the numbers of trades per day were less than the first downturn.

Hopefully the Squealers have finished.
(I like to think of those who squeal like a stuck pig- the sky is falling- nickel prices are going to drop- agm cant sustain this price- as squealers!)

Back to buisness!


----------



## ghosta (9 February 2007)

Nice Article about Avebury in February Edition of Australias Paydirt.

Yes, good old Ghosta's noggin is in the second photo on page 76, Almost exactly dead center of the photo. I'm chatting to the mine geologist- his parents were sitting next to us. They are shareholders too- but thats another story........

link here to article- note incorrect date
http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/default.asp?id=66


----------



## Dukey (9 February 2007)

Nice article G!!  ARe you sitting or standing??
Hey - but I hope the mine is the right way up!!!!!!!!!  :


----------



## zombie_ninja (12 February 2007)

CommSec offered 40% LVR on margin lending for AGM. However, it has now disappeared. Anyone care to give some insight to this? Is there a special requirement for a stock to be listed under CommSec's margin lending?


----------



## nioka (13 February 2007)

An announcement of a nickel intersection at the Bison prospect gives hope for additions to the reserves necessary to add value to the SP


----------



## chicken (13 February 2007)

Looks like Chicken done it again...starting to move back up...MORE NICKEL found in the BISON..TASmania....good grades see what the  company said....Ghosta told you the story...I am holding plenty....watch as they are nearing production....


----------



## ghosta (13 February 2007)

Chicken, your back. I see your first post since suspension has been edited for ramping. 
Was good news today. Did you see Ian Levys comments in the press release-

Ian Levy, CEO commented that "its exciting to note that our exploration hit rate is increasing” and
added “its amazing how prolific this nickel province is turning out to be”.

Good times ahead!


----------



## ghosta (14 February 2007)

Chicken, Ive found a forum just made for you. Its called Sharesguru.com.
You can ramp up any stock you like there as much as you like. But be careful. Dont accuse anyone of ramping up a stock, If you do they throw you off forever. 
Dont be fooled by the silly girl that posts on the AGM page, I will say one thing she a better ramper that even you Chicken. But she has trouble understanding research and gets a  bit mixed up and makes up figures and fools everyone there. So be careful.
This is a better forum in that there are some sensible people posting here, but for a good laugh and some ramping, I suggest you post there Chicken.


----------



## ghosta (17 February 2007)

Fridays volume was below 1 million shares traded and a 0.01 increase in SP. This is something Ive been waiting patiently to see for the last fortnight.

In the last 6 months this has been a good sign; it means the profit takers and "squealers" have had their fill, and the balance has changed to more buyers than sellers.
If the same trend is evident on Monday then the share will go off this week. The Chartists are saying 80c+!!!

I cannot see any reason why this same pattern we have been observing for the last 6 months will be broken, especially in the light of recent good announcements which the SP has not yet taken into account.

The last announcement about Bison is especially significant; while it may not yet quite prove the Avebury Nickel Province theory (I believe a new mine will need to be announced before its proven), but its so damn close that the risk of it NOT eventuating has just about dissapeared.

In my opinion its even better than the Saxon discovery; we now have three options for another mining center (including Melba), and I dont think theres much doubt there will be more.

Nickel prices hitting record highs has effectively told the profits of doom ( nickel is about to collapse???) to take it up the ass quite effectively, and this wont hurt the sp either.

AGM is truly a superstock in the making- and we are here on the ground floor!

Doesn't get much better than this!..............


----------



## savtin (18 February 2007)

Ghosta,

Spot on mate, my observations as well......but you do crack me up SQUEALERS indeed.....................those squealers, squealers, squealers alright hee hee haa haa  .......... i mean who the hell is selling this in the low 60's are they for REAL........................bloody crazy.

let them keep selling the good stuff to me.............over the past week i have managed to add 70,000 to my already existing portfolio..................some might call me crazy but I just feel that AGM is the real deal.................................GO AGM .....the nickel province


----------



## savtin (22 February 2007)

hi AGM holders,

Just finished reading the presentation material to be presented to all the money people overseas over the next three weeks (sounds great the presentation) and considering the fact that AGM may possibly make the ASX300 list next week............yet when I saw the ticker this morning it was down...........................did i miss something or what.....................why isn't this being snapped up like there is no tomorrow???? 

CRAZY


----------



## chicken (22 February 2007)

savtin said:
			
		

> hi AGM holders,
> 
> Just finished reading the presentation material to be presented to all the money people overseas over the next three weeks (sounds great the presentation) and considering the fact that AGM may possibly make the ASX300 list next week............yet when I saw the ticker this morning it was down...........................did i miss something or what.....................why isn't this being snapped up like there is no tomorrow????
> 
> CRAZY



At present because of low volume Robotic trading is taking place...I have bought more at 67cents today....and you are right about the ASX300....that it will be added to...also agree SP has to move north...but we need more volume for this to happen....brokers with their Robotic trading in charge at present...but it will change very soon....


----------



## ghosta (22 February 2007)

Profit taking must be finished, that means we are left with squealers and morons  selling.
Usually low volumes are a precursor to a rise in SP. So much has happened recently that the fundamentals are looking perfect.

You would have to be an absolute moron to sell AGM shares now. But selling IS going on!


----------



## Halba (22 February 2007)

Hi all

i have liquidated my holdings in AGM today.

regards

Halba

Reason: More delays,delays,delays. Production is low in 1st yr.


----------



## savtin (22 February 2007)

Halba,

When AGM said they would start production in 3rd Quarter, it was always around the Aug/Sept period............in the construction/mining industry it is not uncommon especially with todays resource and labour constraints to find that the completion dates are off by about 2-4 months (sometimes longer)...and it has nothing necessarily to do with the specific company........it is quite normal.................i was always going to be amazed if AGM started in SEPT 07.....so what if they start a month or two later...................believe me they are working helter skelter to bring this baby on line.......................and bring in the cash flow..........................


just make sure you are ready to pounce on this when things heat up.............wouldn't want you to miss out if the SP goes towards and over one buck....................


----------



## ghosta (22 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Hi all
> 
> i have liquidated my holdings in AGM today.
> 
> ...




Delays- I havent seen ANY yet. In fact they are running in front of schedule!

Production low in 1st year? Yes the aim is low to allow for startup problems; no other reason. If they have a good run could achieve targets for Yrs2+.

Im amazed at the poor judgement of some people. But its the same old story, if you dont research thoroughly you will only have half the story.


----------



## jj0007 (22 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Hi all
> 
> i have liquidated my holdings in AGM today.
> 
> ...




Yikes...  did you know what AGM's forecast has been since Dec 05 when you first bought?  Because nothing has changed since then!  Except PON has gone through the roof.  First year was always going to be 5,700t....although if you go through previous ann there is a hint that this could be marginally higher.  They are already mining the stuff and have experienced better recovery than first thought.

AGM is my safe haven.

BMN is my punt.

I don't hold anything else


----------



## Halba (22 February 2007)

Hi its risk reward. AGM is gone. I am not attached to these companies just a means of profit. I have held for a long time but i had a very valid reason to sell and that was delay. I am on a lot of other stocks and theres better value elsewhere.


----------



## ghosta (22 February 2007)

Oh well some people just are not destined to make real $. But because they dont do any real research they dont deserve too. 
Every now and then they buy a share like AGM and it offsets their losses. And once they are at break even they believe its had its run!
I shake my head... after all the good recent news someone invents "delays"....


----------



## nioka (22 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Hi its risk reward. AGM is gone. I am not attached to these companies just a means of profit. I have held for a long time but i had a very valid reason to sell and that was delay. I am on a lot of other stocks and theres better value elsewhere.



Give us some tips on the better value please. I thought AGM is one of my better value stocks with good increase in value in a short time, and with little risk for good future gains. I'm happy to change though if you can suggest something better.


----------



## GOYCO (23 February 2007)

Posted by Halba Sept 2nd 2006 on Forum: Nickel

_sally mallay sucks whoever recommends this stock ought to go back to school!

its got operational and hedging problems,re read their quarterlies_

These sorts of statements hardly make Halbas point of view credible.


just a thought

cheers


----------



## chicken (23 February 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Posted by Halba Sept 2nd 2006 on Forum: Nickel
> 
> _sally mallay sucks whoever recommends this stock ought to go back to school!
> 
> ...



Maybe he is buying more shares in AGM....trying to buy it lower.....downramping it....I am not ramping...but buying more today as when AGM into the ASX 300....we will see a rerating of this stock...and AGM roadshow to the USA will also create more pressure on this stock as buyers appeare...so I am buying...and I can see a better SP jet when production starts.....I am a longterm holder...and the person who sold has not looked at the longterm picture...


----------



## Halba (23 February 2007)

i changed my views on SMY later after their stunning drill results. 

downramping whats the point, we don't control the mkt (the big boys do)


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> ....but buying more today as when AGM into the ASX 300....



Chicken, when will AGM get into the ASX300? Where is it placed now?


----------



## nioka (23 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Hi its risk reward. AGM is gone. I am not attached to these companies just a means of profit. I have held for a long time but i had a very valid reason to sell and that was delay. I am on a lot of other stocks and theres better value elsewhere.



After reading your post No95 (can we quit job and invest full time) I can understand why you sold AGM. It is because you don't know what you are doing. Let's hope your fathers business can stand your mistakes when there is a down turn. Are you trying to prove the saying "One generation makes it, the next one spends it".
 I'm still waiting for those better tips.!!!!!!!


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## chicken (23 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Chicken, when will AGM get into the ASX300? Where is it placed now?



I understand....watch the march ASX300 news.....


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> I understand....watch the march ASX300 news.....



Chicken, I'd actually like to know. I like this stock, but I'm trying to see through the noise....Do you know how it's placed, or how we can find out?


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## savtin (23 February 2007)

Kennas,

The announcement should be made on MArch 2nd (next Friday) with the rebalancing occuring 2 weeks later. UBS nominees had AGM as 9th out of 16th most likely candidates to make it into the ASX300. Looking good.


----------



## Halba (23 February 2007)

AGM going downnnn

I wonder why - mine delay.

These guys keep delaying the project. They are also VERY slow at exploration.


----------



## nioka (23 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> AGM going downnnn
> 
> I wonder why - mine delay.
> 
> These guys keep delaying the project. They are also VERY slow at exploration.



I've stopped taking you serious. I'm stilllllll waiting for your better tips. By the way my daughter rang today with a problem. She wants to cash in her SMY shares that I told her to buy at 72c when her broker said not to. She will have a tax problem because she will make too much profit. I keep saying AGM is the next Sally Malay. What more can I say.


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2007)

I've been following this tit for tat with interest. Seems there's a little emotion involved to me. Will be interesting to see who turns out to be correct in the comming months. So far, it seems Halba's decision is vindicated. Not too sure about the reasoning, but the stock has gone down I believe. I actually think it will continue the upward trend eventually. Might all depend on what better valued stock he puts his money in. Perhaps he'll find something more undervalued and he'll be sitting pretty. Time will tell. All the best to all!


----------



## Halba (23 February 2007)

Here's proof of possible delay

latest preso

"100% ownership of Avebury nickel project; production expected 3rd – 4th
Qtr 2007. Target date year-end 2007"

In their previous statement it was:

quarterly report:

2. Develop the Avebury Nickel Project in a risk-managed manner.
Progress: Project construction commenced prior to securing full project financing to expedite the commencement of production, targeted for 1 October 2007.

So they they aren't sure of when to produce? Not to mention the october date is also a delayed date.


----------



## ghosta (23 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> AGM going downnnn
> 
> I wonder why - mine delay.
> 
> These guys keep delaying the project. They are also VERY slow at exploration.




Heres someone who knows absolutely nothing about Nickel Mining!


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## Halba (23 February 2007)

july 2006

06/07/2006  Avebury Nickel Project Update 3 PDF - 

"Shipments of nickel concentrates is expected to commence in earnest in the second half of 2007"

I guess if you are patient you will reap the rewards ghosta. i'm not saying its a bad investment(i do not buy bad companies), just time in the investment!


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## chicken (24 February 2007)

savtin said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> The announcement should be made on MArch 2nd (next Friday) with the rebalancing occuring 2 weeks later. UBS nominees had AGM as 9th out of 16th most likely candidates to make it into the ASX300. Looking good.



Thanks Savtin.....for that....as far as the SP of AGM....brokers are working it robotic...trying to hold price down...bought some more for 67cents....I can wait on this one next leg up......Robotic computer trading by brokers.....


----------



## savtin (2 March 2007)

AGM in the ASX300 .........................Great News!


----------



## GOYCO (2 March 2007)

This very high PON seems to have made a few people nervous...AGM down to 59 cents. Great buying IMO.  Time will tell. Any news on the arrival of the Ball Mill? Ahead or behind schedule? What actually is involved in the commissioning of the mill? And can anyone explain why the "beards" went on an international road trip when they have already presold their nickel. Is there a deeper reason for going? Not much news coming out at present. Waiting on the latest drill results from Bison and Saxon. Will they mine Melba soon and send ore to Helyer or wait for there own mill? One gets the feeling that something is brewing, I could be wrong but information about AGM is very scant ATM

cheers


----------



## Halba (2 March 2007)

Goyco I have maintained this mngmt is not very transparent. They don't issue much news.


----------



## joeljp (2 March 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> This very high PON seems to have made a few people nervous...AGM down to 59 cents. Great buying IMO.  Time will tell. Any news on the arrival of the Ball Mill? Ahead or behind schedule? What actually is involved in the commissioning of the mill? And can anyone explain why the "beards" went on an international road trip when they have already presold their nickel. Is there a deeper reason for going? Not much news coming out at present. Waiting on the latest drill results from Bison and Saxon. Will they mine Melba soon and send ore to Helyer or wait for there own mill? One gets the feeling that something is brewing, I could be wrong but information about AGM is very scant ATM
> 
> cheers




Goyco, a reply from Ghosta ....

Ball Mill- No whispers here in Tassie, 44 weeks form July so SHOULD be here by early June. Commissioning is starting it up and getting it to work. Not sure of exact process, but its simple technology few adjustments to get the floatation process running to optimum. Should not be problems here.

Beards trip. To visit Sempra Commodities, who are a metals brokering company, registered with LME. They own 4.7% share in AGM- equal to Jinchuans holdings. No doubt discussions will take place for them to handle any excess production not contracted to Jinchuan. This includes some ore which can be accessed via the Avebury decline. Doubtful we will hear any of this in the near future, but groundwork being done.

Melba- Is still some time off although groundwork for mine establishment being done. It looks to me like a stopgap measure to increase production rapidly until Saxon or Bison can come online. Could be ready late this year, more likely early next year. Wont be any holdups with red tape, Tas Govt onside will move things quickly provided all relevent docs are provided.

Saxon and Bison drilling will take time. But once they get a feel for the ore layout and amounts they will move quickly. They dont need to drill to the degree they did at Avebury to make major decisions, although thorough drillout needed to design mining stopes etc. End of this year at earliest Id say.

I dont agree that the company are not giving us much news,- Plenty of new developments forthcoming. But the main game is getting the mine and processing plant going, and they are doing a superb job here. Dont underestimate what they have achieved here- its all going to plan and on time so far. That is an amazing achievement. The management are truly superb! Probably the best mine management in Australia and thats no exaduration.

We must continue to be patient. It looks to me that they will fluke this mine coming on stream EXACTLY at the right time- thats how its shaping up.


----------



## chicken (7 March 2007)

The Bulletin just gave AGM a great write up....6.5.2007....


----------



## chicken (7 March 2007)

Also,if someone missed it...AGM in the ASX 300....SP will have a lift as look at NI prices at KITCO...up over 45c US to over $20 US per lb.....Nickel prices are going balistic......AGM started mining...but will be processing in 3rd half of the year...bought more yesterday at 53cents.......once its starts processing good money will be had here


----------



## joeljp (7 March 2007)

Once the beards get back from their US roadshow, SP in the 50s will be a thing of the past.


----------



## Sultan of Swing (7 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> Also,if someone missed it...AGM in the ASX 300....SP will have a lift as look at NI prices at KITCO...up over 45c US to over $20 US per lb.....Nickel prices are going balistic......AGM started mining...*but will be processing in 3rd half of the year*...bought more yesterday at 53cents.......once its starts processing good money will be had here




The 3rd half??   

Is that a subtle way of saying it's never going to happen?  :


----------



## chicken (7 March 2007)

Sultan of Swing said:
			
		

> The 3rd half??
> 
> Is that a subtle way of saying it's never going to happen?  :



MATE..do your research.....and then POST...as Schultz said I KNOW notting...about your style


----------



## Sean K (7 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> MATE..do your research.....and then POST...as Schultz said I KNOW notting...about your style



This reminds me of a classic quote during Officer training at Duntroon when a Drill Sergeant taking us for training screamed, "Right, I want half of yous over there, half of yous over there, and the other half here! MOVE!" LOL


----------



## Pat (7 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> This reminds me of a classic quote during Officer training at Duntroon when a Drill Sergeant taking us for training screamed, "Right, I want half of yous over there, half of yous over there, and the other half here! MOVE!" LOL




LOL!!! Sounds just like a drill sergeant... Had a bad run in with one while visiting a mate at Pukapunyal (spelling?)


----------



## TheAbyss (7 March 2007)

Can i have the big half of the profits please?


----------



## chicken (7 March 2007)

closed at 62c...looking better everyday....


----------



## Out Too Soon (8 March 2007)

I have both turkeys & chooks (& geese) & I know for a fact that chickens are at least 1/2 as much smarter than turkeys but thats not saying much (by half). :


----------



## Sultan of Swing (8 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> MATE..do your research.....and then POST...as Schultz said I KNOW notting...about your style




I think you missed the whole point of my post Chook.    

And for what it's worth, i hold a reasonable amount of AGM and am pretty happy with the way things are progressing in Zeehan. The town's excited. It'll certainly breath some life into the West Coast.


----------



## chicken (9 March 2007)

Sultan of Swing said:
			
		

> I think you missed the whole point of my post Chook.
> 
> And for what it's worth, i hold a reasonable amount of AGM and am pretty happy with the way things are progressing in Zeehan. The town's excited. It'll certainly breath some life into the West Coast.



As this board does not like projection of figures see what is said on Hotcopper...does that make sense?


----------



## jj0007 (13 March 2007)

Great news from AGM this morning.

They have delineated 17000t of nickel at the east avebury + saxon deposits *so far*.


----------



## nioka (16 March 2007)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> Great news from AGM this morning.
> 
> They have delineated 17000t of nickel at the east avebury + saxon deposits *so far*.



This is in addition to the 8,500 tons in the initial Avebury mine. There appears to be plenty more to prove up yet. Production getting closer!!!!!


----------



## Mousie (16 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> Also,if someone missed it...AGM in the ASX 300....SP will have a lift as look at NI prices at KITCO...up over 45c US to over $20 US per lb.....Nickel prices are going balistic......AGM started mining...*but will be processing in 3rd half of the year*...bought more yesterday at 53cents.......once its starts processing good money will be had here




ROTFLMAO :jump:

Sorry guys (especially chicky), I can't resist...

Only read this thread now, and couldn't stop laughing.

Chicken, what these guys here were trying to tell you (very nicely indeed) is that *how can you have 3 halves in a year (or in anything at all...)???* The right word should be quarter, ain't that what you're trying to say?

Another ROTFLMAO session, just can't help it!!!


----------



## gringokonyo (16 March 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> This is in addition to the 8,500 tons in the initial Avebury mine. There appears to be plenty more to prove up yet. Production getting closer!!!!!



I believe there is over 114,000 tons in Avebury and AGM will be producing about 8,500 tons of nickel per annum. I hold quite a bit of this stock so I'm also very interested in seeing production get underway.  Hopefully nickel prices will still be around today's price.


----------



## Halba (16 March 2007)

The production rate is low in the first year - 5800t.


----------



## chicken (17 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> The production rate is low in the first year - 5800t.



You are one laugh a minute...you said LOW.....well, if you multiply that by $50,000 a ton.....the results are huge...$290million for the start....and you say that is low......LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO


----------



## Halba (17 March 2007)

Market is not valuing these "soon to be" producers at $50,000 a TON.

MRE producing 31,000t nickel, that would be 2billion at $50k a ton and MRE is a current producer. Last I checked MRE mkt cap $3.2bn.


----------



## chris1983 (17 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Market is not valuing these "soon to be" producers at $50,000 a TON.
> 
> MRE producing 31,000t nickel, that would be 2billion at $50k a ton and MRE is a current producer. Last I checked MRE mkt cap $3.2bn.




hmm 5800 t in the first year?  I'll have to read into this.  How much are they planning to ramp production up to?  I also don't know where MRE are based.  Tasmania is cheap labour etc etc.  Further research is required.  Any of the experts in AGM want to run the comparisons?  I'll do it later tonight


----------



## kransky (17 March 2007)

i dont think everyone producing nickel is getting $50k per tonne.. is BHP getting US $85 per pound of Uranium out of Olympic Dam?

But a brand new producer like AGM might have no sales contracts signed at average prices.. so might be aiming to take advantage of the current short term ? hugely elevated Nickel prices.


----------



## jj0007 (17 March 2007)

Yes Chris.  Dec 05 feasibility study shows first year will produce ~5800t of nickel.  However their trial mill run returned 20% higher nickel than first thought.  So whilst they have not upgraded their year 1 production, reading between the lines you can assume it will be higher.


----------



## chris1983 (17 March 2007)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> Yes Chris.  Dec 05 feasibility study shows first year will produce ~5800t of nickel.  However their trial mill run returned 20% higher nickel than first thought.  So whilst they have not upgraded their year 1 production, reading between the lines you can assume it will be higher.





Yeah production will ramp up..you have to start with something and I think Allegiance are having a good start.  I hold and have been holding since 36 cents.  I bought these due to increasing nickel prices and the offtake agreement with Jin Chuan.  Also the area they are in is so highly prospective for further discoveries and has low production costs.  I personally think Allegiance has further to run.


----------



## chicken (18 March 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Yeah production will ramp up..you have to start with something and I think Allegiance are having a good start.  I hold and have been holding since 36 cents.  I bought these due to increasing nickel prices and the offtake agreement with Jin Chuan.  Also the area they are in is so highly prospective for further discoveries and has low production costs.  I personally think Allegiance has further to run.



I wonder why people remove posts...????maybe they dont like what I posted...look at HC..what was said about AGM.....


----------



## Sean K (18 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> I wonder why people remove posts...????maybe they dont like what I posted...look at HC..what was said about AGM.....



Perhaps because this provides no value whatsoever, and is just a ramp for AGM.


----------



## chicken (18 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Perhaps because this provides no value whatsoever, and is just a ramp for AGM.



Mate,....AGM are starting this years production...of about 5800tons..at $50k a ton about $290million...rising to 10k tons or $500million...maybe even higher...Saxon and Avebury now 17000 tons of NI..and more jorgs on the way...as, NI province established...and you talking about a ramp....I like your style ,as, like SMM you seem to think you know it but I wonder if you do...I said when the SP was 25c...there is a hugh upside now 67cents and the brokers as AGM is in the ASX300.........mining has started...just the milling will start in August or september....I am holding a swag and for good reasons...not a ramp but for good reasons....


----------



## gringokonyo (18 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> ...Saxon and Avebury now 17000 tons of NI..and more jorgs on the way...:




I think you're underestimating the identified resource.  
Avebury 114,000 tons nickel
East Avebury/Saxon 17,000 tons and more jorgs on the way.

Total resource is 131,00 tons of nickel.  If nickel is about $45000 per ton, then AGM has an inground value of about $5.9 billion - which I'm not sure how it translates into a share price.


----------



## GOYCO (19 March 2007)

How about this method:

Brokers report (Fox Davies Capital) believes AGM will easily have over 200000 tonnes of contained nickel. But lets use this as a limit. Lets say AGM knock out 8500 tonnes of Ni per annum. Gives them a mine life of 23.52 years. Lets make it 20 then there reserve only needs to be 170000. A few assumptions need to be made here but if we use $US20000 (AUD$25000 tonne at 80c) tonne average for the life of the mine. (this is the biggest variable) cost assumption $AUD5000 tonne. therefore NP $AUD20000 tonne. (tax not included as the company has heaps of tax credits fom exploration, capital and depreciating costs. Maybe a factor later)

$20000 x 170000 = $AUD 3,400,000,000 total profit 20 years

Now using a financial calculator

Inflation rate assumption = 4%
term ( N )  = 20 years
future value ( FV ) = 3,400,000,000

Using this data

Present value ( PV ) = $Aud 1,552,000,000.

Divide by no. of shares 678,000,000.

Equals SP of $Aud 2.29 per share.

this is at production start.

This is just one type of method used. It uses all of the company's earnings and breaks it down in today's dollar terms. Very simiilar to valuing bonds etc.

Increased production rates and increasing reserves will also affect the final figures.

Calcs using PE rates against projected earnings come to similar figures for SP.

I hope this substantiates my SP prediction. All this information is based on my current knowledge and as such is not financial advice. In fact it is all my own personal opinion. DYOR

cheers


----------



## chicken (19 March 2007)

gringokonyo said:
			
		

> I think you're underestimating the identified resource.
> Avebury 114,000 tons nickel
> East Avebury/Saxon 17,000 tons and more jorgs on the way.
> 
> Total resource is 131,00 tons of nickel.  If nickel is about $45000 per ton, then AGM has an inground value of about $5.9 billion - which I'm not sure how it translates into a share price.



My mistake.....131000 tons of Nickel......you missed a nought.....


----------



## GOYCO (19 March 2007)

correction $2.22 per share


----------



## kenworth69 (19 March 2007)

I have only done some basic research in to this stock but must say that i am very impressed by what i have read including the report by the London based broker.


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## Halba (19 March 2007)

goyco...what about peer valuation? Your $2 per share valuation looks excessive when compared to other producers. By the way AGM's current valuation looks excessive, nearly $500m mkt cap. MCR and SMY trade a little higher but they produce. MRE's valuation is the lowest of the lot.


----------



## chris1983 (19 March 2007)

The Fox Davies Capital report is all I need to read to see that AGM are still worth having.

Allegiance Mining  A$0.68 Buy with a target price of A$1.15.

Someone has surely posted the link?  Just in case its below.  I cant be bothered searching through the thread to see if someone has posted it

http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/docs/Articles/FDC Nickel Sector Report - 26 Feb 2007.pdf


----------



## chris1983 (19 March 2007)

AGM would have to be classed as a potential breakout from here.  Having a strong run back up from 55 cents I think it was after the start of the correction.  It has been at this level (in the 70's) a number of times. Once we can break out above 72.5 it will run.  Usually stocks coming into production such as AGM will tend to have positive runs the closer they bring the mine into production.  Thats another reason why I bought into AGM.  I knew it would only be a matter of time for some great returns.. theres still more to come yet IMO.


----------



## GOYCO (19 March 2007)

Halba

Peer Valuation?  coles, woolies, david jones,harvey norman are all peers but have totally different businesses and as such are valued accordingly. Yes AGM is a nickel company but that is where the similiarities end. You have to do your own research on individual companies and come up with your own valuation

cheers


----------



## nioka (19 March 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Halba
> 
> Peer Valuation?  coles, woolies, david jones,harvey norman are all peers but have totally different businesses and as such are valued accordingly. Yes AGM is a nickel company but that is where the similiarities end. You have to do your own research on individual companies and come up with your own valuation
> 
> cheers



Peer valuation ? Try SMY.


----------



## GOYCO (19 March 2007)

Nioka

In what way is SMY a fair comparison? I think your saying AGM is going the same way as SMY or am I wrong?

Please supply some further details

cheers


----------



## nioka (19 March 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Nioka
> 
> In what way is SMY a fair comparison? I think your saying AGM is going the same way as SMY or am I wrong?
> 
> ...



1. Compare the SP price chart when SMY was at the same stage of development and coming into production.
2. Compare the production volume ie. The rate AGM will produce and the rate SMY has produced.
3. Compare the costs of production.
4. Compare the reserves proven.
5. Compare the potential to prove further reserves.
 That is what I have done. It is called DYOR. 
I held SMY from early days and, in my mind, I could see, and still see, potential in AGM. ( I bought another 6000 AGM on Friday)


----------



## GOYCO (19 March 2007)

Thanks Nioka

The question was not really for me but for other posters wondering how to value AGM. SMY is about as close a comparison as can be made to AGM. IMO

Still early days there is still the preproduction risk but as production draws nearer the risk diminishes.

cheers


----------



## nioka (19 March 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Thanks Nioka
> 
> The question was not really for me but for other posters wondering how to value AGM. SMY is about as close a comparison as can be made to AGM. IMO
> 
> ...



SMY had their problems when a ring gear failed and they were out of production for a considerable time. Let's hope AGM has a spare part or two to avoid the same drawback. I don't want them to follow the exact same path as SMY. SMY also had the problem of missing out on a lot of income through hedging, AGM should do better there as well.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 March 2007)

GOYCO said:
			
		

> Thanks Nioka
> 
> The question was not really for me but for other posters wondering how to value AGM. SMY is about as close a comparison as can be made to AGM. IMO
> 
> ...





Different market cycle, different commodity prices and different Share Structure/Market Cap.........from a retrospective peer comparison.....(SMY-AGM).

And put plainly the market cap of SMY (a producer) a mere 8 months ago was 2OO mil......whats AGM's market cap.......500 mil.

Risk/Reward...............whats the upside? , personally I think AGM is an excellent near term prospect......'just no comparrison with its peers on a past speculative basis' .


----------



## nioka (19 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Different market cycle, different commodity prices and different Share Structure/Market Cap.........from a retrospective peer comparison.....(SMY-AGM).
> 
> And put plainly the market cap of SMY (a producer) a mere 8 months ago was 2OO mil......whats AGM's market cap.......500 mil.
> 
> Risk/Reward...............whats the upside? , personally I think AGM is an excellent near term prospect......'just no comparrison with its peers on a past speculative basis' .



I should have included market cap. Sally Malay market cap now $762M.


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## mildew79 (20 March 2007)

sellers in control today on the very short term. am hoping these guys avoid the near gap and find support at 0.69. has held strong so far. dry up in volume a good sign. bought a small parcel @ 0.69 for now...

buying power may be awaiting the markets decision/sentiment on spot nickel direction i feel. alot of caution entering nickel atm. charts suggest a correction in Ni spot overdue. If this happens and agm get nailed i shall be taking much larger positions.

break through resistance 0.73 not to far away


----------



## mildew79 (20 March 2007)

Through 0.69 just now. May find 0.670 today.


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

I'm going in again on this one soon. Sort of softened my negative stance after reading all the reports. Rumour is they are offerring a SPP/placement to existing shareholders. Can anyone confirm?


----------



## Gutterboy (20 March 2007)

G-day,
New to all this, but i hold most of my portfolio in AGM, which in my(totally unquallified) opinion is close to a sure thing.
Am i wrong?
Is there any way AGM wouldn't get to production, besides a catastrophic drop in the PON?

Thanks


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

I doubt it, they are pretty advanced already. I doubt much fall in nickel price is coming but who knows.


----------



## mildew79 (20 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> I doubt much fall in nickel price is coming but who knows.




Carefull Halba, if everyone had that opinion this stock would likely be above its long term resistance of 0.735 already. Alot of caution needed entering nickel atm. I do hope you are right though


----------



## chicken (20 March 2007)

mildew79 said:
			
		

> Carefull Halba, if everyone had that opinion this stock would likely be above its long term resistance of 0.735 already. Alot of caution needed entering nickel atm. I do hope you are right though



Nickel at over $22 a lb or $50k a ton ...reason for that is.....SHORTAGE of supply....and for the next 12 to 18 months that is a fact of life....stainless fittings will be going up....and 400 million Chinese moving into  the Chinese cities...will still move...and their fittings bathroom and kitchen are all stainless...so if any one thinks the price will collaps..??? Just has no idea....the price from here will be steady to up and in 18 months to 24 months we may see easing of the price bar for a world war....NI will still be at a high price....all to do with supply and demand....look at what BHP said...$2 billion it will cost them to get Raventhorpe going....and New Caledonia is also not coming on line for 24 months...Raventhorpe also 24 months...and all these mines which want to get into production...have still a 24months to 36 months wait.....whereby AGM...is mining its NI by contractors now and the ballmill should be getting into place in July...and first production in Aug/Sept....so at the right time to get these $$$$ rolling...after all it took 10years for them to get to this position....AGM starting their production at the right time...when we have a shortage of NI....


----------



## jj0007 (20 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> I'm going in again on this one soon. Sort of softened my negative stance after reading all the reports. Rumour is they are offerring a SPP/placement to existing shareholders. Can anyone confirm?




You sold because you didnt like the delay...but you are considering buying again because of some positive reports?  Weren't you reading all the reports before you sold in the first place?     

Yes there is some speculation on a placement.  I think they will need one to get over the line.  This from HC which is an extract from the ABN Amro report (not confirmed)

_"Upcoming capital requirements
AGM held A$51.5m in cash at the end of the December quarter and raised a further A$3.975m via an equity placement to offtake partner Jinchaun in mid January. Comparing the original capital requirement vs current project status, we (conservatively) anticipate AGM will require a further A$40m to see Avebury through to production. Management anticipates an upcoming equity raising, possibly via a combined placement and SPP. Pending further details, we have modelled a equity issue of 73m shares at A$0.55c per share to raise A$40m, which would cause around 10% dilution."_


----------



## mmmmining (20 March 2007)

A coincident? 

In last April, Jinchuan got AGM's option at 28c;
Today, Jinchuan got MLX's 13% share at 28c;

Have been told by Chinese, 28 is a luck number. So, who will be the next in about a year time, or sooner?


----------



## purple (20 March 2007)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> A coincident?
> 
> In last April, Jinchuan got AGM's option at 28c;
> Today, Jinchuan got MLX's 13% share at 28c;
> ...




come on now mmmmmmining! that is a pure coincidence! the sp fluctuates by the second...

don't tell me in a remote Jinchuan office there is a Maoesque officer checking every price and buys 'em when it gets to a lucky number?


----------



## mildew79 (20 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> Nickel at over $22 a lb or $50k a ton ...reason for that is.....SHORTAGE of supply....and for the next 12 to 18 months that is a fact of life....stainless fittings will be going up....and 400 million Chinese moving into  the Chinese cities...will still move...and their fittings bathroom and kitchen are all stainless...so if any one thinks the price will collaps..??? Just has no idea....the price from here will be steady to up and in 18 months to 24 months we may see easing of the price bar for a world war....NI will still be at a high price....all to do with supply and demand....look at what BHP said...$2 billion it will cost them to get Raventhorpe going....and New Caledonia is also not coming on line for 24 months...Raventhorpe also 24 months...and all these mines which want to get into production...have still a 24months to 36 months wait.....whereby AGM...is mining its NI by contractors now and the ballmill should be getting into place in July...and first production in Aug/Sept....so at the right time to get these $$$$ rolling...after all it took 10years for them to get to this position....AGM starting their production at the right time...when we have a shortage of NI....





i did not say i wasnt bullish on nickel chicken, i merely stated we are overdue for a spot price correction. note "correction". - implies short term price movements to the downside.

you need to realise the market is made up of many kinds of traders using many different trading methods. they dont all have the same view points on buying and selling otherwise the market would not exist. 

im sure many traders realise there is a higher risk of a spot price correction after nickels recent advance and are holding back due to increased entry risk. as much as i like this stock, i have only taken a small parcel at this time for the reasons i mentioned. after a correction or more consolidation i shall likely add to this position.

ideally, i would love to see a Ni spot price correction and this stock hold stronger than most other nickel stocks. then we would likely see agm really get moving.


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

yep i'm looking at AGM, but the 10% possible dilution is going to hurt.....


----------



## mmmmining (20 March 2007)

purple said:
			
		

> come on now mmmmmmining! that is a pure coincidence! the sp fluctuates by the second...
> 
> don't tell me in a remote Jinchuan office there is a Maoesque officer checking every price and buys 'em when it gets to a lucky number?




Here is a few tips for you when dealing with Chinese:
Good number: 8, 9,28.
Bad number:4,7,13,14,18.

Don't believe, go visit a high riser apartment around Chinatown in Sydney. There is no level 4, and 13. In mainland China, more numbers become superstiution. Pre-paid phone card cost more with a lot of 8 or 9. Definitely, cost less with  a lot of 4's.

Anyway, a bit off track. But a company with Jincuan's touch could be a good investment. We have seen its investment in AGM has been been up 150% in less than a year. Can we expect the similar return for MLX?

Who is the next possible target? 

HRR could be a good one. But both BHP and INCO are one step ahead. 

RMI, very possible. It has Wowo Gap Ni laterite deposit in PNG, a "friendly" country to Chinese. A similar nickel mine, Ramu just nearby controlled by another Chinese company, or

GDM, with a potential huge nickel sulphide project in Tanzania.

Who knows?


----------



## chicken (20 March 2007)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> You sold because you didnt like the delay...but you are considering buying again because of some positive reports?  Weren't you reading all the reports before you sold in the first place?
> 
> Yes there is some speculation on a placement.  I think they will need one to get over the line.  This from HC which is an extract from the ABN Amro report (not confirmed)
> 
> ...



NOW, read it again...MODELLED a equity.....that IS NOT what AGM has said...all of you jumping the gun...WITH NO PROVE OF THIS TO HAPPEN....but assumpion is one way of getting the SP for some people at the right price....at lower levels as at present.....it makes me wonder how deceitful people are.....to shake the weak ones out of the share.....but patience is needed as we will have our patday in the end....


----------



## jj0007 (20 March 2007)

chicken said:
			
		

> NOW, read it again...MODELLED a equity.....that IS NOT what AGM has said...all of you jumping the gun...WITH NO PROVE OF THIS TO HAPPEN....but assumpion is one way of getting the SP for some people at the right price....at lower levels as at present.....it makes me wonder how deceitful people are.....to shake the weak ones out of the share.....but patience is needed as we will have our payday in the end....




Yes the 70m @ 55c is a model ABN Amro has used as clearly stated.  Who has jumped what gun???? Who is being deceitful??  What are you on?   

Also, note "*management * anticipates upcomming capital raisings".  Reading between the lines it is obvious that they have had discussions with the co.  So their guestimate might not be too far away.  Based on my last calculation I think they will only need another $10-$20m to get over the line.  $40m sounds excessive unless cost has really escalated.  At what price they decide to issue is anyone's guess.  Won't be happy with anything under 60c.

Holding long term (and have no more cash to participate in a SPP if it comes up)  

PS.  ABN Amro report on their website  --> Here


----------



## savtin (20 March 2007)

Spoke to AGM representative, and he confirmed that the numbers and figures qouted by ABN Amros are their own. He said he wouldn't dream issue shares at 55 cents......he also said that they still did not know what the mix of financing was going to take place i.e. 50-50 bank or equity , or even if they needed to take out a bank loan, depends on the final amount that they need.

He did say however that they may raise more money now to pay for any items they will need to boost production in the future due to the long lead times (in some instances over 2 years),,,,,,,so they are trying to plan ahead,,,,,he said by waiting for cash flow to come in it may mean they can't get the parts for over two -three years rather than ordering them now.

All is good., ,...he sounded very bullish........................ and I do believe that this company WILL make us all alot of money.

I hold and I wait for my dividend cheques to come in on an annual basis for the next 12 years.

regards
savas.c


----------



## chicken (21 March 2007)

jj0007 said:
			
		

> Yes the 70m @ 55c is a model ABN Amro has used as clearly stated.  Who has jumped what gun???? Who is being deceitful??  What are you on?
> 
> Also, note "*management * anticipates upcomming capital raisings".  Reading between the lines it is obvious that they have had discussions with the co.  So their guestimate might not be too far away.  Based on my last calculation I think they will only need another $10-$20m to get over the line.  $40m sounds excessive unless cost has really escalated.  At what price they decide to issue is anyone's guess.  Won't be happy with anything under 60c.
> 
> ...



.....Why, if you freighten people..into selling at a lower price...thats what I call being deceitful..even putting rumours out what may or may not happen...same thing.....the person who puts these rumours out is deceitful as by buying these shares at lower prices makes a profit through his or her rumours...


----------



## Kipp (21 March 2007)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> A coincident?
> 
> In last April, Jinchuan got AGM's option at 28c;
> Today, Jinchuan got MLX's 13% share at 28c;
> ...



LOL... BSM is issuing options at 28c to existing shareholders... no doubt the Chinese will be in like Flynn!!


----------



## mildew79 (21 March 2007)

found near term support 0.67. a day later than expected. next supports 0.66 & 0.65.

hoping it holds here @ 0.67 

unfortunately my trading platform is copy protected so i can only post bigcharts and they are delayed. good reference though. 0.66 support not shown.


----------



## savtin (22 March 2007)

From the Australian newspaper:--

"Finally, Tony Howland-Rose at Allegiance Mining is seeing the fruits of 10 years of hard work. Mining operations are getting under way at the Avebury mine in Tasmania and drilling is turning up more nickel all the time. 

We rate Allegiance a BUY, our normal cowardly caution overcome by London's Fox-Davies Capital putting a target price of $1.26 a share. (ABN AMRO's target, by contrast, is 89c.) 

The company was formed in 1997 and Avebury was discovered the next year. The existing resource is 114,000 contained tonnes of nickel. 

Allegiance's operation is underpinned by its relationship with the huge Jinchuan metals group in China. Offtake agreements between Chinese corporations and local producers (or emerging producers) are now common events. 

But there was a twist in January. Jinchuan had bought some Allegiance shares in conjunction with the offtake agreement, but then two months ago picked up another 7.5 million of the company's stock. The Gansu-based nickel giant had never previously bought a second tranche of shares outside an offtake arrangement, with any company, before that. "

Looking good GO AGM
:-


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 March 2007)

mildew79 said:
			
		

> found near term support 0.67. a day later than expected. next supports 0.66 & 0.65.
> 
> hoping it holds here @ 0.67
> 
> unfortunately my trading platform is copy protected so i can only post bigcharts and they are delayed. good reference though. 0.66 support not shown.





Hope so to Mildew..............damn youre a handsome chap .


----------



## mildew79 (26 March 2007)

thanks freeballer : 

lookin good today. currently @ 0.73. cmon thomas!!! the hill is only a little higher 

many major nicklers down and nickel spot on near support. nickel break down might be interesting. good sign of strength for agm. question is .... profit target or let it run??? will give it some time to get through 0.73


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## chris1983 (26 March 2007)

Its broken out now guys.  Blue sky.  Based off previous analyst valuations it could very easily run above 80.


----------



## mildew79 (26 March 2007)

im out @ 0.745. only reason for this is my uncertainty in nickel spot at mom. i feel i may get another entry on this one in the future at a similar SP. still.., looks good for any holders out there


----------



## savtin (29 March 2007)

We had a technical breakout on Monday on high volume.....doesn't that usually mean the stock should run......especially being a decade long resistance breakout out......it is crazy that it is coming down.....................i am long on this stock but I feel sorry for anyone buying this stock on Monday on the basis that it had brocken out and should run...................common AGM get up into the 80's.


----------



## Gutterboy (29 March 2007)

It seems to be something to do with the irrational fear that the nickel price is going to fall over.
This is in spite of most analysts predicting over $30000/tonne average through 2007and not much lower through thenext few years.
My opinion anyway.


----------



## nioka (29 March 2007)

savtin said:


> We had a technical breakout on Monday on high volume.....doesn't that usually mean the stock should run......especially being a decade long resistance breakout out......it is crazy that it is coming down.....................i am long on this stock but I feel sorry for anyone buying this stock on Monday on the basis that it had brocken out and should run...................common AGM get up into the 80's.




I think it has done well to hold it's price. Sally Malay has dropped from a peak of $4.42 down to $3.88 at the moment.


----------



## nizar (29 March 2007)

savtin said:


> We had a technical breakout on Monday on high volume.....doesn't that usually mean the stock should run......especially being a decade long resistance breakout out......it is crazy that it is coming down.....................i am long on this stock but I feel sorry for anyone buying this stock on Monday on the basis that it had brocken out and should run...................common AGM get up into the 80's.




Decade long resistance breakout was in November at 40c.
I think you would agree its done well since then.

I remember coz i thought it was an awesome breakout, took a position, and it did nothing but sit in the 40s to about 2 weeks so i chopped it  

Then off it went like a rocket


----------



## Halba (29 March 2007)

Hi nizar I had a bit of these, exited at 66-67  I'm surprised it is continuing to go up.


----------



## mildew79 (29 March 2007)

savtin said:


> We had a technical breakout on Monday on high volume.....doesn't that usually mean the stock should run......especially being a decade long resistance breakout out......it is crazy that it is coming down.....................i am long on this stock but I feel sorry for anyone buying this stock on Monday on the basis that it had brocken out and should run...................common AGM get up into the 80's.




still a bit of uncertainty over nickel and general market direction. this is the reason i got off the band wagon the other day. agm is still a specky atm, so any correction in nickel or the market should punish it more severely than producing nickel stocks.

everyone knows these guys shall likely enjoy a decent rise in sp soon, however there are traders on this stock also. they really dont care when agm produce, profits etc etc. they will pull the pin on any bad news or sentiment that may slow sp movements (eg nickel spot correction, market correction, cautious market sentiment) and place there money elsewhere short term to better use. many other people thinking of entering this stock shall be aware of this, hence the retrace the past few days. 

dow has done better than i expected over the past few days, and nickel has held around about their short term support for a few days also. few more days and nickel sentiment should become a little more secure. as a result im back in @ 0.73 today.


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## nioka (29 March 2007)

Halba said:


> Hi nizar I had a bit of these, exited at 66-67  I'm surprised it is continuing to go up.




Can't see why you would be surprised, I'd be surprised if it did NOT go up. Of cource there will be fluctuations but all the news coming out is good with additional reserves being declared on a regular basis. Production time gets closer. There is lots of room to go up from here as I see things.


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## savtin (30 March 2007)

After a supurb start to the week, this stock has fizzled out completely. From a high of 77.5 down she has come...................what a great break out...........NOT


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## Gutterboy (30 March 2007)

I agree wholeheartedly!
Why is it that a bucket of nothing (nup)can race up like it did with absolutely
nothin' to back it up,and allegiance can go the other way with no bad news whatsoever?
I dont get it.


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## mildew79 (30 March 2007)

not in any trouble yet guys. most of the nicklers have had an average week and they are producing with nickel @ $45000+ a ton. considering its "specky" tag, i see this as a pretty strong stance for agm. the more they consolidate, the more explosive the run when they do decide to move  i did not like the weak close today though....

mre's close today was interesting   went up 9 cents in the after close auction to finish at the high for both the days trading and all time. a break up on monday open might defy my logic. reminds me of zfx a while back. many indicators overextended but sp does not seem to care. i pulled on mre today @ 7.30 thinking it would consolidate for a while. strong close suggests otherwise. anyhow had them since the correction so happy with the result


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## Halba (31 March 2007)

Gutterboy said:
			
		

> I agree wholeheartedly!
> *Why is it that a bucket of nothing (nup)can race up like it did with absolutely
> nothin' to back it up*,and allegiance can go the other way with no bad news whatsoever?
> I dont get it.




Well then you share my views wholeheartedly. My views re: NUP and general requirements for fundamentals in stocks are well known. Some people are still telling me NUP was a winner, and it doesn't matter about fundamentals, just that if you can make money from it (you know who you are). *AGM has real resources, its just a matter of price for me.*


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 April 2007)

Halba said:


> Well then you share my views wholeheartedly. My views re: NUP and general requirements for fundamentals in stocks are well known. Some people are still telling me NUP was a winner, and it doesn't matter about fundamentals, just that if you can make money from it (you know who you are).




You must admit that a quick fix on a burger and fries can be initially satisfying, just over the long term you can get a gut ache and over indulgance leads to costly medical expenses such as bypass surgery! Kudos to those that dine exclusively on takeaway whilst avoiding the inherrent pitfalls.

As every good nutritionist advises, eat in moderation, snacking often on the staples which are better value on sale and not during peak season.......occasionaly have some fast food but eat it quickly as you can't sell cold takeaway  .


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## Dutchy3 (5 April 2007)

Well here we are some one year and a bit done the track

400% is OK ... For those that PM me of all the books I've read and all the effort I have put in over the last 10 years Bedford's Secrets (pages 138 -142) and Weinsteins is all I've ever needed to know ...


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## chris1983 (12 April 2007)

Travelling nicely.  Very strong close.  Happy to continue holding.


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## chicken (13 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Travelling nicely.  Very strong close.  Happy to continue holding.




Chris,I do agree with you as AGM will see my target price sooner than later...not selling...still holding.....


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## chris1983 (13 April 2007)

chicken said:


> Chris,I do agree with you as AGM will see my target price sooner than later...not selling...still holding.....




What target price are you after chicken?


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## jj0007 (13 April 2007)

Well at least we now know what was driving the SP during the week.

Fantastic announcement.  These increase in resources will either extend mine life or provide fuel to increase production rate.  Obviously I prefer the latter  

Story is slowly unfolding....


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## chops_a_must (13 April 2007)

How on Earth does this have a market cap of 600 million?

The peer review just does not stack up here.


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## chicken (14 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> How on Earth does this have a market cap of 600 million?
> 
> The peer review just does not stack up here.




easy...do some figures....158000tons times..$50000....=many Billions of $$$$.....the profits now you work it out is in many hundreds of million$$$ and you say how does this have a market cap of 600 millions...DOYR...and you will see why...


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## chicken (14 April 2007)

Also, have a look at Kitco...the price per lb of Nickel...highest I have seen...AGMs contractors are mining the ore ready when ballmill is installed for the last quater for milling the ore before shipment to China..agreement of $1.5billion with chinese company......


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## joeljp (14 April 2007)

And not to mention the reserves are growing every time they drill! Oh look.. more nickel


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## chris1983 (14 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> How on Earth does this have a market cap of 600 million?
> 
> The peer review just does not stack up here.




Okay..lets do a rundown of AGM for chops and others.  I dont know if this justifies AGM to have the Market Cap that they have but I think it does.

*Total Class Issue:	682,489,766*
*Market Cap (Undiluted):	580,116,301*
*contains 158,000 tonnes Ni in resources*

Below are some major factors that show the potential for Allegiance to have a huge nickel province.

_
Discovery of second deposit (Saxon-East Avebury) in late 2006
Discovery of a possible third deposit (Bison) in February 2007
Saxon deposit and Bison deposit discovered within 1.5 km (~1 mile) east of Avebur.
_
Nickel is around $45,000/tonne so if we used this figure to work out the inground value we would get.  
158,000 x 45,000 = *7.11 billion inground value* and this resource will increase further

Allegiance have allready sealed deals to sell their nickel.  Its just a matter of getting everything off the ground now.  Jin chuan are a very strong partner to have.

_
US$2.2 billion offtake agreement & partnership with Jinchuan Nickel Group, China
8,500 tpa Ni in concentrates – offtake by Jinchuan Nickel, China
_
We also have the figures in regards to Allegiances yearly tonnage and operating costs.  see below.

_
Marketing Yr 1: 28,800tpa concentrates (+20%Ni) = 5,700tpa Ni
Yr 2+: 43,000tpa concentrates (+20%Ni) = + 8,500tpa Ni
Milling Simple 900,000tpa ball mill & flotation with 80-84% recovery
Cost setting Mining A$35/t, Milling A$20/t = Low operating costs
Overheads & Marketing A$13/t , Total C1 Opex A$68/t ore
_
So now with all that we know I think you can work out an estimate for what Allegiance will be earning yearly.  At 5700tpa Ni working off say even just *$30,000/tonne* this would bring in total revenue of around 

*5,700 x 30,000 = 171 million dollars.*

At 8,500tpa this would bring in total revenue of

*8,500 x 30,000 = 255 million dollars*

Now to work out the companies profits we have to work out yearly tonnage and operating costs.  Easy way to get an estimate of this is that the ball mill can handle 900,000tpa.

*900,000 x 68 = 61.2 million dollars*

We can now work out the profits

At 5700 TPA Ni the company would bring in a profit of 
*171 – 61 = 110 million dollars*
*NPAT = 77 million dollars at 5700 TPA Ni*

At 8500 TPA Ni the company would bring in a profit of 
*255 – 61 = 194 million dollars*
*NPAT = 136 million dollars at 8500 TPA Ni*

Remember I have worked out these figures off $30,000 a tonne.  No one knows what the agreement with Jin-chuan was but it was supposedly amonst the highest paid for nickel concentrates.  

Is this realistic?  If anything is wrong..pull me up..I just wrote this up before I go out with the misses today so dont jump down my throat too much .  I would also say for the first year they would have a lot of losses carried forward so this will help in regards to the tax they have to pay for the first yearl.  I think its fair to say that once AGM get up and going they are going to be travelling nicely.  It takes a large mine to give a company the boost they need to expand and AGM look to have that.


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## grayps (14 April 2007)

Thanks for a very good post Chris, though I think the "Total C1 Opex A$68/t ore" may be an old figure swamped by major rises in mining costs.

Good luck all who hold,
grayps


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## chris1983 (14 April 2007)

grayps said:


> Thanks for a very good post Chris, though I think the " Total C1 Opex A$68/t ore" may be an old figure swamped by major rises in mining costs.
> 
> Good luck all who hold,
> grayps




ahh..yeah that figure was from the  21 Feb 2007 15:21	AGM	Conference Presentations announcement..but when I went back and checked those figures from the presentations slide it is headed "DEC 05 feasibility study outcomes" so you have a good point there.  The costs definately would have risen..but I did hear Tasmania is good for labor costs etc etc so we will still be okay.


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## nizar (14 April 2007)

Chris,

Wat p/e do Nickel producers normally trade at?

Thanks


----------



## chris1983 (14 April 2007)

nizar said:


> Chris,
> 
> Wat p/e do Nickel producers normally trade at?
> 
> Thanks




SMY have a PE of 22.6.  Jubilee have a PE of 	11.95.  Both those PE's will increase though.  AGM's PE will be healthy compared to the two even if their profits are based off $30,000/Tonne.


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## jj0007 (14 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> ahh..yeah that figure was from the  21 Feb 2007 15:21	AGM	Conference Presentations announcement..but when I went back and checked those figures from the presentations slide it is headed "DEC 05 feasibility study outcomes" so you have a good point there.  The costs definately would have risen..but I did hear Tasmania is good for labor costs etc etc so we will still be okay.




Increase the the opex by about 20% and you still get a very good outcome.
Good post for chops....


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## pennystock (15 April 2007)

Hi Everyone

So on the figures that Chris has kindly produced, what could be the share price of AGM in 2 to 3 years time of course assuming everything goes to plan. I know ppl will reply back with "How long is a piece of string and we don't have a crystal ball" but some educated guess would be nice.

CHEERS

Pennystock


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## chris1983 (15 April 2007)

pennystock said:


> Hi Everyone
> 
> So on the figures that Chris has kindly produced, what could be the share price of AGM in 2 to 3 years time of course assuming everything goes to plan. I know ppl will reply back with "How long is a piece of string and we don't have a crystal ball" but some educated guess would be nice.
> 
> ...




Its very hard to say Pennystock.  What will Nickel prices be in 3 years time?  I would say they will still remain strong due to China and India expanding but anything could happen.  How much larger will their resource get?  It continues to grow and it is all in close vicinity to one another.  What will they do with the profits they get?  expand is what they will be doing.  Its fair to say AGM is on their way to building an excellent company and they have laid a great foundation to expand.  I'll continue to hold these for atleast another 10 months and see how things are progressing after that time period.  I would give a price prediction..but would get pointed out for doing so as we aren't supposed to post price predictions.  I'll tell you what I think though.  The SP will be substantially higher than what it is atm.  Thats just my opinion.  I don't see it with much risk either..whole reason why I put the gf's money into this stock   Go AGM!


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## nizar (15 April 2007)

Pennystock.

Chris is probably spot on with his analysis (seriously, look at his record), and AGM will probably be higher in 2-3 years, but i can guarantee there WILL BE corrections between now and then.

Its not how you pick the winners but rather how you trade them. So if you buy now, ask yourself where will the initial stop be, and where is your exit. Or if you are a permabull and intend to hold all the way, stick to that plan.

Do you have the balls to hold through 20-30% share price corrections (i dont) ?

I know Chris does, and thats why hes cleaned up thus far.


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## joeljp (15 April 2007)

Chris, has your g/f made grand plans to spend the profits yet? 

On a more serious note, once AGM starts to produce where do you see AGM in the pecking order of nickel companies (in australia)? Do you see it fit in around SMY & MCR or higher up with MRE and JBM? 

Anyone else like to take a stab at this, please feel free to do so.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (16 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> SMY have a PE of 22.6. Jubilee have a PE of 11.95. Both those PE's will increase though. AGM's PE will be healthy compared to the two even if their profits are based off $30,000/Tonne.





Chris,

your PE's are off the mark on a 'current view'. PE's are also void of mine lifes/forward production profiles........ that precipitate enterprise value/forecast revenue. 

I agree with Chops on this one (investment wise), AGM dosent stack up to its Nickle producing peers/relative to its market cap.

From a Trading perspective AGM has plenty of speculation from its 'mean value' , how you chose an exit/entry should be approached accordingly!.


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## chops_a_must (16 April 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Chris,
> 
> your PE's are off the mark on a 'current view'. PE's are also void of mine lifes/forward production profiles........ that precipitate enterprise value/forecast revenue.
> 
> ...



The problem that I see in it, and what differentiates it from other nickel miners is the cut off grade. SMY, MCR and others all run at a significantly higher % of nickel content in their ore. This enables them to run costs very low. 

158,000 tonnes over 19 years or something (upside case) just cannot stack up with SMY at 20,000 tonnes for the next ten years or something ridiculous. 

AGM have a market cap similar to MCR and they haven't really even earnt anything. I mean yeah, if nickel prices keep going up for ever and ever, this will do well, but the market is benefitting miners that are ramping up production right now, and are at peak production RIGHT NOW, not in 3-4 years time.


----------



## chris1983 (16 April 2007)

Okay this is for chops and freeballing.

At a share price with AGM at 85 cents lets work out what the PE would be for the company if the figures below were being realised.  These figures will be realised in time also.  Production is getting closer.

_At 5700 TPA Ni the company would bring in a profit of 
171 – 61 = 110 million dollars
NPAT = 77 million dollars at 5700 TPA Ni

At 8500 TPA Ni the company would bring in a profit of 
255 – 61 = 194 million dollars
NPAT = 136 million dollars at 8500 TPA Ni_

Lets also put the PE's of  MCR, SMY and JBM

*JBM PE: 11.95

SMY PE: 20.53

MCR PE: 11.72*

Okay now lets work out the PE for allegiance if either the 77 million dolars or 136 million dollars NPAT was realised.

at 77 million dollars profit AGM's PE based off an 85 cent SP would be
Earnings/share = 77,000,000/682,489,766 = 11.28 cents/share
PE would then equal 85/11.28
*PE = 7.54*

at 136 million dollars profit AGM's PE based off an 85 cent SP would be
Earnings/share = 136,000,000/682,489,766 = 19.9 cents/share
PE would then equal 85/19.9
*PE = 4.27*

At these figures AGM are looking pretty good to me.  Compared to its peers it needs to rise a lot more and the closer it comes into production the further SP gains we will see.  Its still cheap atm IMO.

AGM are in Tasmania..the costs of production are low.  Below is taken from one of their presentations.

*Excellent nickel concentrates*

_Avebury 20% plus nickel concentrates will define a new global benchmark:"Nothing but Nickel" and command a premium price_

*Low cost mining. Mine & infrastructure established!*

_Typically A$30/tonne: Milling is less than A$20/tonne; Overheads less than A$8/tonne; Marketing lessthan A$6 tonne_


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (16 April 2007)

Chris,

I am not to familiar with AGM, just that its a Nickler near production with a decent resource. No idea on mill capacity/cut off grades/off take aggreements etc.

It is clear that in recent times/pre production AGM has had significant share dilution (large SOI), its current CAPEX position to facilitate ramp up?, bank debt facility etc. Maybe its fully funded to production stage.......if so thats great .

AGMs MC is 600M................and they are yet to produce. Seems pricey to me. 


How you can possably compare AGM to a peer producer that has a MC of 900M, close to 100M in the bank virtually nil debt etc..... and in all likelihood will produce 20K NI in 08/09 is beyond me. 

SMY's PE a mere 3 months from the end of the Fin Year can reasonably assumed to be around the 10 mark. 


Financials 06/07 (forward view 30/06/07)- on an average Ni price of 40K from 01/01/07/30/06/07.

06/07 Full Year NPAT: 70M (Estimated).
Cash on Hand/Receivables: 130M (Estimated)
EPS: 43.5c (Estimated)
P/E:10.7(Current SP)
SP: $4.64 (Current)
SOI : Approx 187 Mil
MC (Fully Diluted): Approx 900M (Current)
Senior Debt reduction (Production CAPEX): 32M 05/06 to 6M (Estimated)


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## chops_a_must (16 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Okay this is for chops and freeballing.
> 
> At a share price with AGM at 85 cents lets work out what the PE would be for the company if the figures below were being realised.  These figures will be realised in time also.  Production is getting closer.
> 
> ...



I'm new to F/A, and I may be wrong.... but:

I think what you are missing out here is that MCR's and SMY's etc PE's are after tax. Because both are doing these numbers in one half. So really, there is something amiss here.

Also, I have no idea where this number 61 comes from.


----------



## chris1983 (16 April 2007)

Read my first post on this page.  You will see where the 61 comes from.

NPAT is also after TAX.  I havn't missed anything.  If there is something else I have missed please point it out.  Freeballing you seem to only like stocks that are in production.  AGM will be in production soon.  Your limiting yourself by only looking at stocks in production.  AGM will be an assurity into production so if you work out the figures early there are lots of profits to be made.  I was in at 36..but I still think investors buying now will see rewards.  My figures were based off Nickel at $30,000 a tonne and nickel is $45,000 a tonne.  Also AGM have allready onsold their nickel to Jin Chuan group.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Read my first post on this page.  You will see where the 61 comes from.
> 
> NPAT is also after TAX.  I havn't missed anything.  If there is something else I have missed please point it out.  Freeballing you seem to only like stocks that are in production.  AGM will be in production soon.  Your limiting yourself by only looking at stocks in production.  AGM will be an assurity into production so if you work out the figures early there are lots of profits to be made.  I was in at 36..but I still think investors buying now will see rewards.  My figures were based off Nickel at $30,000 a tonne and nickel is $45,000 a tonne.  Also AGM have allready onsold their nickel to Jin Chuan group.




Personally I think AGM is pricey and I can't see it doubling as chicken says unless there is a re-rate on the entire sector.

You could add in other costs apart from the mill, but they are small change really. The unknown I would say would be the debt levels/ potential further dilution. Big cash positions and low (for MCR no) debt to me justify the higher market cap for similar production levels. As well as the security in current production, as opposed to new mine development risk.

But given these are pretty much the same production figures as elsewhere, with similar costs, I guess we will have to agree to disagree here and say that many companies in the sector are undervalued (if prices hold). 

But like I said earlier, the ball is really in the court of those maximising production right now, and SMY is in the best position to do that.


----------



## chris1983 (16 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Personally I think AGM is pricey and I can't see it doubling as chicken says unless there is a re-rate on the entire sector.
> 
> You could add in other costs apart from the mill, but they are small change really. The unknown I would say would be the debt levels/ potential further dilution. Big cash positions and low (for MCR no) debt to me justify the higher market cap for similar production levels. As well as the security in current production, as opposed to new mine development risk.
> 
> ...




Other costs were quoted in my previous post.  They were total operating costs given from one of the AGM presentations.  See below.


Marketing Yr 1: 28,800tpa concentrates (+20%Ni) = 5,700tpa Ni
Yr 2+: 43,000tpa concentrates (+20%Ni) = + 8,500tpa Ni
Milling Simple 900,000tpa ball mill & flotation with 80-84% recovery
Cost setting Mining A$35/t, Milling A$20/t = Low operating costs
Overheads & Marketing A$13/t , Total C1 Opex A$68/t ore

The total cost is $68/t ore

Below is how I worked out the 61 million dollars operating costs

Now to work out the companies profits we have to work out yearly tonnage and operating costs. Easy way to get an estimate of this is that the ball mill can handle 900,000tpa.

900,000 x 68 = 61.2 million dollars

I know you guys are set on MCR maximising profits right now etc etc..but AGM have their agreement sign sealed and delivered with Jin chuan group and no one knows what the agreement with Jin-chuan was but it was supposedly amonst the highest paid for nickel concentrates.  Thats why I worked out my figures based off only $30,000/tonne instead of $45,000/tonne which is the current nickel price.  The agreement is a US$2.2 billion offtake agreement & partnership with Jinchuan Nickel Group, China.  Seems good to me.

They also continually find new deposits in their licenses and the resource is just going to get bigger and bigger.  How big will the resource get?  It could double for all we know.  They could then upgrade the ball mill capacity if they really wanted once they get a larger resource.  Things are just looking good for AGM.  They have a large mine there and it could get even bigger.

Anyway bed time   Work tomorrow.  Take it easy fellas.


----------



## joeljp (16 April 2007)

Chris, I think you've done more than what's required of you in justifying your P/E and calculations. If others can't see that AGM is only a matter of months away from being a significant nickel player then that's their problem. They might have forgotten that MCR, SMY were an AGM not very long ago. It's true that AGM's cap may appear expensive pre production but have they looked beyond that? Have they looked at what additional resources have turned up recently? What about all the other drill results that all happened to be just around the main Avebury mine?


----------



## chicken (21 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Personally I think AGM is pricey and I can't see it doubling as chicken says unless there is a re-rate on the entire sector.
> 
> You could add in other costs apart from the mill, but they are small change really. The unknown I would say would be the debt levels/ potential further dilution. Big cash positions and low (for MCR no) debt to me justify the higher market cap for similar production levels. As well as the security in current production, as opposed to new mine development risk.
> 
> ...




Mate,we are not intrested in what you think..PERSONALLY, but what the true figures are...and what I think is also not important...Chris pointed that out through his figures...NOW, that is Important and makes sense...what you think...well...I think you have an Agenda..what is it...do you want to buy cheap shares...I wonder....????


----------



## chris1983 (21 April 2007)

Looks like a lot of debate is going around in regards to the points being raised in the next upcoming annual general meeting.  Ill just add in what I think and give a summary of what is going to happen at the meeting.

So In summary we have some options and shares being voted upon by share holders.  See below.

*Jin Chuan - Granted 7,500,000 fully paid shares

EMPLOYEE OPTIONS - 4,478,000 Employee Options

OPTIONS TO CONSULTANTS - 5,500,000 options

ISSUE OF NEW SHARES
*
_"That, for the purposes of Listing Rule 7.1 and for all other purposes, approval be given for the Company to issue such number of fully paid ordinary shares in the Company up to but not exceeding 15% of the number of fully paid ordinary shares in the Company on issue at the time of the new issue on the terms and conditions set out in the Explanatory Statement accompanying the notice of this meeting."_

*MR ANTHONY HOWLAND-ROSE, DIRECTOR - 5,000,000 Employee Options

MR DAVID DEITZ, DIRECTOR - 5,000,000 Employee Options

MR EDDIE LEE, DIRECTOR - 1,000,000 Employee Options

MR BARRY SULLIVAN, DIRECTOR - 1,000,000 Employee Options*

So all up just under 21 million options and 7.5 million fully paid shares to Jin Chuan are being issued.

In regards to the 7.5 million shares to Jin Chuan this was arranged earlier on the 14th Feb. See below for those who aren't sure about the 7.5 million shares and what price Jin Chuan is paying for them etc.

_"Allegiance is pleased to announce that the Jinchuan Group Limited has all governmental permissions in place for the placement of 7,500,000 shares at A$0.53 per share to raise A$3,975,000 (as announced 15 January 2007). 

These funds have now been received and the shares will be issued. We are pleased that Jinchuan is one of our larger shareholders and we look forward to ever closer co-operation with the world’s fastest growing nickel group for the mutual benefit of both parties. On completion of this transaction Jinchuan Group Limited will hold 4.7% of the ordinary shares of Allegiance Mining NL."_

So thats another 4 million in cash from Jin Chuan and is a huge confidence boost to have future support from an extremely large company (China based I might add).

In regards to the 21 million option what is the exercise price of the options though?? That’s the question to ask. If it brings the company in money I don’t care what happens. Yes it looks like the Directors are all giving themselves a pat on the back..but why not? This sort of thing always happens in companies. As long as they bring me the rewards in increasing the SP and progressing the company I dont care. They obviously think everything is going great and it has been for me. Almost a 150% gain in 5 months and I don’t think the gains will just stop. Put this away longer term and as they ramp up towards production further rises in the SP will occur. That’s my opinion. 

Investors were all having a cry and moan when BMN directors issued themselves shares and options when the SP was a lot cheaper than what it is now..I'm not 100% sure what the SP was at the time as it was awhile back.  Point is..if the company continues its success..dont worry about these issues.  The figures have been worked out in regards to their profits etc etc and it looks good.  A mere 21 million oppies is not going to change their profit outlook and future.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 April 2007)

There are two comments I have Chris. Firstly, it is quite clear they are going to dilute this year, possibly up to a total of 15%. Which, on current prices would take them past the likes of MCR on market cap, without them having done a thing, or paying dividends. Strange, considering their production will be very similar.

Secondly, the placement with consultants I wouldn't be happy with. How objective could their results be now? We have already had a downgrade of contained nickel from above 50,000, to below 40,000, without adequate explanation. It looks to me like the ghosts of Poseidon might be coming back.

Chicken, cheap shares or not, I wouldn't be buying this now because with the shares on offer, it doesn't leave enough room for share price appreciation. Which is how holders make money.


----------



## chris1983 (21 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> There are two comments I have Chris. Firstly, it is quite clear they are going to dilute this year, possibly up to a total of 15%. Which, on current prices would take them past the likes of MCR on market cap, without them having done a thing, or paying dividends. Strange, considering their production will be very similar.
> 
> Secondly, the placement with consultants I wouldn't be happy with. How objective could their results be now? We have already had a downgrade of contained nickel from above 50,000, to below 40,000, without adequate explanation. It looks to me like the ghosts of Poseidon might be coming back.
> 
> Chicken, cheap shares or not, I wouldn't be buying this now because with the shares on offer, it doesn't leave enough room for share price appreciation. Which is how holders make money.




Chops..you keep mentioning Poseidon..did you get burnt with this stock?  AGM is not Poseidon

downgrade of nickel?  to below 40,000 tonnes?

They released their latest resource upgrade to contains 158,000 tonnes Ni in resources.  Now if you cant believe the facts that are presented..I guess thats your own problem to deal with?  If you dont believe what they report then just don't buy the stock..its simple.  What is SMY and MCR's total nickel resources?  I;m at my girlfriends so I cant do too much research atm but I think AGM's resource is larger than SMY's and AGM's is all in the one area.  They continue to find more resources only KM's away from one another.  I have made 150+% on this stock..I don't know why your so negative on it.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 April 2007)

No, but the chairman was a geologist there.



> "However, Allegiance said that due to its adoption of "more stringent resource classification procedures", some of the resources at Avebury that were previously included in the indicated category had been reclassified as inferred resources.
> 
> This brings its ore reserves at the mine to 38,900t contained nickel in 3.35Mt of ore at 1.16% nickel with an 0.85% nickel cut-off grade. Last year, the company estimated it had 51,000t of contained nickel at the same cut off grade."


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## chicken (21 April 2007)

Chops-a-must...you got your figures wrong...there was an upgrade to 158000tons....like your posting, you throw things around...negativity...for what is your Agenda...but to buy cheaper shares...look at figures posted by Chris and then you get the idea...like your posting on HC...all very doubtful postings with NO figures but your personal opinions...give us facts not fantasy,.....I am holding...and certainly will not sell on your postings....


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## chops_a_must (21 April 2007)

Yes, but that includes inferred and indicated numbers. Mine are the best stab at indicated numbers I can find.

For instance, Sally Malay has 58,000t of indicated nickel at one of its mines. No-one is valuing it on it's inferred numbers of nearly 200,000t.


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## chicken (21 April 2007)

Read their 2nd last anouncements...Its all there of what AGM has actually got in tonage..158000 tons...and there is more drilling and more NI being found....Avebury is the new Ni province...Chops-a-must...we are posting about AGM here as far as other NI miners please post there


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## chops_a_must (21 April 2007)

It is all there isn't it Chicken?

Proved at 0.4%, 64,000t.

Proved at .7%, 49,700t.

Proved at .85%, 38,900t, Previous was 51,000t.

Ok. So IF new nickel is being found, as you say, what's with the ~25% write down in provable nickel?


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## chicken (21 April 2007)

So, Chops...that makes it PROVEN...152600tons....the operative word IS PROVEN...right....that is right....so where is your problem....


----------



## chops_a_must (21 April 2007)

chicken said:


> So, Chops...that makes it PROVEN...152600tons....the operative word IS PROVEN...right....that is right....so where is your problem....




No, that is the total amount above each grade. 

The 64,000t above .4% would be inclusive of the 49,000t above .7% etc.


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## chris1983 (22 April 2007)

hmm whats all the big debate over?

_Total Resources at Avebury 16.27 Million tonnes @ 0.97% Ni 240 ppm Co
contains 158,000 tonnes Ni in resources._

I just got home and I see arguments regarding grades etc etc but they have allready worked this out to be very profitable so whats the deal.  Fact is AGM is rising and will continue to rise as long as they continue to expand their resource.  They believe it to be a new nickel province.  Nickel is also onsold to Jinchuan.

Sallay Malay have nickel resources in total to

Nickel Resources 
Sally Malay Project = 56,600 tonnes
Lanfranchi = 54,300 tonnes
Copernicus = 6,300 tonnes

AGM's mine is going to be very low cost chops..You have to realise this.  I dont see what all the fus is over..to me SMY look good..but so do AGM.  I mean both stocks have given great gains over the past year.

Some good points for AGM below.

Very low operating costs due to:
– Large size (10m-40m wide), simplicity & continuity of the shallow orebody
– Conventional metallurgy; simple ore, consistent recoveries & grades
– Availability of low-cost hydro power, infrastructure & near to port
– +80% recovery at 1% Ni
– Aveburys 20%-plus nickel concentrates will define a new global benchmark.
As our metallurgists put it,they are Nothing but Nickel.
– Low-grade ores (0.6% Ni) produce high-grade Nickel Concentrates at
72% to 76% recovery

Below is an image I thought was good to add.  It shows comparisons between the operating costs for companies located in WA and Tasmania.  These figures have probably changed slightly because this was taken from one of the presentations almost a year back now.  It still gives a good indication of the cheap operating costs for mining companies based in Tasmania.

Now the only thing I could think to be negative of AGM is if you dont believe what they are reporting..which is how I see your views since you continually refer to Poseidon.  I mean if they are telling lies..then yes we will all get burnt but I base my stock picks from what companies report and the facts that are presented.


----------



## ta2693 (22 April 2007)

Why not invest in GUL instead of AGM? Basically they are the same business with different name. Refer to the GUL's half year account and yahoo finance, GUL hold 5.4% of AGM i.e. 24494022 shares Which is also the main asset of GUL. 
The ordinary share issues of GUL is 125931551 which mean 1 share of GUL equals to 0.195 share of AGM which is about 16 cents. But you can get in market at 7.8 cents which means you pay half price for AGM's share by using this GUL as agent.
one more interesting thing to add, the director of gul is also the director of agm.


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## nizar (22 April 2007)

ta2693 said:


> Why not invest in GUL instead of AGM? Basically they are the same business with different name. Refer to the GUL's half year account and yahoo finance, GUL hold 5.4% of AGM i.e. 24494022 shares Which is also the main asset of GUL.
> The ordinary share issues of GUL is 125931551 which mean 1 share of GUL equals to 0.195 share of AGM which is about 16 cents. But you can get in market at 7.8 cents which means you pay half price for AGM's share by using this GUL as agent.
> one more interesting thing to add, the director of gul is also the director of agm.




Thanks for sharing that ta2693.
Chart looks great.


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## ta2693 (22 April 2007)

This is actually first identified by The prophit. There is a lot of smart guy inside this forum, the research quality all together is not second to any investment bank.
I just read the 2006 report and confirm his conclusion. GUL is a good vehicle to invest in AGM.


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## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> hmm whats all the big debate over?
> 
> Sallay Malay have nickel resources in total to
> 
> ...



Because these figures from SMY have to be compared to AGM's proven reserves of 39,000t. You couldn't produce at 20,000t a year like they are going to do on those figures...

We aren't valuing SMY on their inferred reserves, so why should it be different with AGM? Why the 25% write down in proven reserves?


----------



## chris1983 (23 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Because these figures from SMY have to be compared to AGM's proven reserves of 39,000t. You couldn't produce at 20,000t a year like they are going to do on those figures...
> 
> We aren't valuing SMY on their inferred reserves, so why should it be different with AGM? Why the 25% write down in proven reserves?




Dude seriously waste of time to keep debating it.  AGM has been very profitable for me..thats all I got to say.  I think the profits will continue.  lets wait and see what they are in 6 months time.


----------



## Halba (23 April 2007)

Too many differences with companies

SMY's cash costs, higher than AGM due to high smelting charge/participation

However:

SMY's grades higher than AGM.


Different geological structures of nickel, different nickel provinces(WA vs tasmania), and SMY is a current producer(mines have operating history, AGM's doesn't). SMY's mngmt proven, AGM not yet.

Both go up due to nickel sentiment.


----------



## chris1983 (23 April 2007)

haha Halba your still up.  I should sleep.  I so dont want to go to work tomorrow.  AGM have given me 150+% return in what..4-5 months so I'm not complaining.  Its just my opinion it will continue.  The main reason I got into these was because they were "moving" into production very soon and I saw them as a safe investment after going through the figures.  I guess thats just the type of stocks I look to invest in and it gives good returns.  Ive got a few more on the radar that I want to buy.  IMO AGM's SP will continue to move up the closer they come to production and thats what I'm after.  Its all about timing


----------



## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Dude seriously waste of time to keep debating it.  AGM has been very profitable for me..thats all I got to say.  I think the profits will continue.  lets wait and see what they are in 6 months time.



It is. But...

A 25% write down in anything, in any industry spells alarm bells for me. And it's something that hasn't been explained adequately here, or in announcements.

I'm sure AGM will go up as well, however, I think there are larger gains to be made in a few other nicklers. To me, there is too much risk, with little reward attached.

But if I had held since 30c, I probably wouldn't be selling now, that's for sure.

Another note... the proven reserves, multiplied by the current nickel price, come awfully close to the value of the deal supposedly done with Jinchuan....


----------



## chris1983 (23 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Because these figures from SMY have to be compared to AGM's proven reserves of 39,000t. You couldn't produce at 20,000t a year like they are going to do on those figures...
> 
> We aren't valuing SMY on their inferred reserves, so why should it be different with AGM? Why the 25% write down in proven reserves?




I thought AGM also have an indicated resource larger than 39,000t

Subtotal Indicated 6.91 Million tonnes @ 1.06% Ni

which is just over 73000 tonnes of indicated nickel resource.

I'll stick with the Total Resources at Avebury 16.27 Million tonnes @ 0.97% Ni 240 ppm Co which is 158,000 tonnes Ni even though it isnt all indicated yet.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> I thought AGM also have an indicated resource larger than 39,000t
> 
> Subtotal Indicated 6.91 Million tonnes @ 1.06% Ni
> 
> ...




From the resources and reserves statement:


> Cut-Off Grades: A conservative cut-off grade of 0.85% nickel has been applied in this ore reserve statement so as to be consistent with earlier estimations of ore reserves that were done some years ago when nickel prices were considerably lower than those prevailing at this time.
> 
> Ore is being produced successfully as planned from the Avebury Mine and costs are in line with expectations. Given the positive outlook for the nickel market, management will be reviewing the question of the economically optimum cut-off grade for this large project as production ramps-up to steady-state production levels and the long-term costs are confirmed. *The economically optimum cut-off grade may be closer to 0.7% Ni than the current 0.85% Ni which would increase the nickel inventory substantially.*




As opposed to the 158,000t case at 0.4% which may not be viable (according to them), the 0.7% cut off leads to a total of 131,000t with *proven, indicated and inferred figures*. The proven and indicated percentages of this total lead to a total of about 67,000t(rough) proven and indicated. BUT, the proven figures at .7% are still less than the old proven figures at .85%  

Given that they are targeting 8+ year mine life at about 8,500t or 9,000 t p/a, these numbers seem about right, once you factor in 90% recovery. It will all depend on how well they go at getting the inferred number into the indicated category and beyond etc as to their success.

Sometimes it pays to look closer than the headlines.


----------



## chris1983 (23 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> From the resources and reserves statement:
> 
> 
> As opposed to the 158,000t case at 0.4% which may not be viable (according to them), the 0.7% cut off leads to a total of 131,000t with *proven, indicated and inferred figures*. The proven and indicated percentages of this total lead to a total of about 67,000t proven and indicated. BUT, the proven figures at .7% are still less than the old proven figures at .85%
> ...




Chops the low grade means nothing if its economical.  The total resource is not at that grade anyway.  They have a large portion of it above 1% nickel.

_"Cut-Off Grades: Metallurgical testwork consistently demonstrates that low grade nickel mineralisation is readily processed to produce high quality concentrates at high recovery rates. Mineral Resources are reported at a minimum 0.4% Ni cut-off grade which is approximately the natural break between nickel mineralisation and background grades but resources for other cut-off grades are reported herein to allow comparisons with Ore Reserves."_

And from the latest report they give an indicated resource of

Subtotal Indicated 6.91 Million tonnes @ *1.06%* Ni 258 ppm Co

which is over 73000 tonnes nickel.

Full reports on the resources below

Global Resources Above 0.4% Ni Cut-Off Grade (this Resources Estimate).

*1. Inferred Resources*
North Avebury 3.18 Mt @ 0.78 % Ni 180 ppm Co
North Viking 1.29 Mt @ 1.32% Ni 256 ppm Co
South Viking 1.26 Mt @ 1.15 % Ni 258 ppm Co
East Avebury 2.32 Mt @ 0.75% Ni 272 ppm Co
Other Zones 0.78 Mt @ 0.77 % Ni 151 ppm Co
Subtotal Inferred 8.83 Million tonnes @ 0.90 % Ni 224 ppm Co

*2. Indicated Resources*
North Avebury 1.63 Mt @ 1.33% Ni 343 ppm Co
North Viking 1.49 Mt @ 0.97% Ni 230 ppm Co
South Viking 1.56 Mt @ 1.05% Ni 293 ppm Co
Central Avebury 0.56 Mt @ 1.12% Ni 228 ppm Co
Other Zones 1.67 Mt @ 0.85% Ni 177 ppm Co
*Subtotal Indicated 6.91 Million tonnes @ 1.06% Ni 258 ppm Co*

*3. Measured Resources*
North Viking 0.53 Mt @ 1.08% Ni 267 ppm Co
Subtotal Measured 0.53 Million tonnes @ 1.08% Ni 267 ppm Co

*Total Resources at Avebury 16.27 Million tonnes @ 0.97% Ni 240 ppm Co
contains 158,000 tonnes Ni in resources (132,000 t Ni in 2006)
*

You said it was an indicated resource of 39,000 t and thats wrong.  Thats all I'm pointing out


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## chris1983 (23 April 2007)

Anyway bedtime.  Im guessing your in Perth too.  Way too late anywhere else to still be up.  My movie is all finished..and have to get up early for work.  We will continue this little debate tomorrow  lol


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## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> You said it was an indicated resource of 39,000 t and thats wrong.  Thats all I'm pointing out



Sorry. I was using the wrong terminology.

So do we have a consensus that the figures that should be used are around the 70,000t mark?

The way I read the report is that now because of the nickel market, it is feasible to use grades down to 0.7%, that's why the .85% cut off was the standard before. Less than 1% is already low grade nickel... but to get the .4% nickel, they would have to process a fair amount of the surrounding dirt as well, thereby making it unfeasible.

It appears to read as if:
1) the .4% figure is used because it is the break from the ordinary dirt to the strike/ mineralisation.
2) the .7% figure is used because it is likely that it will become the new feasible cut off grade.
3) the .85% figure is used because it was the old feasible cut off grade.

Just because they have a certain amount above .4%, it does not necessarily make it viable. What might also become a problem if they drop the cut-off grade, is the production per year. It has stuffed a few companies up. But that's an unknown right now.


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## hypnotic (23 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Anyway bedtime.  Im guessing your in Perth too.  Way too late anywhere else to still be up.





Never too late to be awake especially when you know you WILL be sick tomorrow and wont be going to work  

Sorry just a bit side tracked from the topic

Hypnotic


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 April 2007)

Chris,

In the case of AGM I would certainly not suggest that punters have not made gains on returns in recent times trading them, that’s self evident.

I beg to differ that AGM's current  market cap does not have speculation from the mean value, for that matter so does their business commodity, Nickle.

As your posts on AGM and other entries indicate, you seem to invest in non producers albeit early and hold long, speculating on fundamentals. Obviously you are not hedging the inherent risk from mean value by not trading as such, a non producer mainly is pure speculation………especially in a toppy bull market.

An entry in AGM long on a forward view is fine, they have plenty of potential, but it also a clear fact that at current SP’s, theirs significant speculation weighted in.

IMO a comparison between investments in mid tier Nickle producers in recent times as opposed to entries in near term producers at present is a mute point. The hedging of risk is a much different equation. Speculation both in the commodity and companies is at a premium from net value albeit Nickles fundamentals still remain tight.

Youre posts on AGM seem to miss a lot of the inherent business dynamics that will be evident from AGM’S shift from explorer to producer.

A comparison between a past entry into SMY long, to a current entry in AGM is irrelevant. That was a different marketplace for Nickle, speculation was below mean value from a reasonably assumed forward profile. 

FWIW past and forward views on SMY are attached (markedly different to those presented by you). These clearly indicate the difference between the level of foreseeable speculation past/present and future, both in Nickle and producing companies. This is evident in the 600 percent increase in EPS for SMY in 07  





*SMY Reserves & Resources*
*Reserves Mt Ni% Kt*
Sally Malay 3.0 1.6 47.9
Lanfranchi 0.1 2.5 3.0
Winner 0.1 4.0 3.9
Helmut South 0.4 3.4 13.0

*Total: 67,800T*

*SMY Resources Mt Ni% Kt*
Sally Malay 3.0 2.0 58.4
Helmut South 0.8 2.9 22.2
Winner 0.1 4.5 4.6
Lanfranchi Ext 0.1 3.3 4.5
Lanfranchi Rm 0.1 2.4 1.5
Schmitz Rem 0.1 4.2 4.5
Helmut Rem 0.2 1.4 2.7
Martin 0.1 3.9 1.9
Edwin 0.0 4.9 1.6
Ham 0.1 1.2 0.8
Cruickshank 1.4 1.3 18.0
Gigantus 0.7 1.5 10.4
Deacon 1.4 3.0 52.2

*Total: 183,400T*

_Note: Further upside on Ex hits to be expected at Sally Malay Deeps, Deakin and Corpicenus which remain open at depth. Winners recent 16% upgrade also yet to be factored in_



*SMY Earnings Summary – Present-Forward Profiles*

*Year end June 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F*
Revenue - $M 242.9 588.8 832.7 784.1
EBITDA - $M 69.6 205.0 330.3 287.7
NPAT - $M 15.9 115.9 203.9 174.0
Free Cash Flow $M 14.7 115.1 194.7 190.3
EPS – A$ cents 8.1 59.6 104.8 89.5
EPS - % chg 33.8 633.9 75.9 (14.7) evident

Note: SMY should reap a maiden 20c dividend partially franked after June 07, and regular dividends there after


*SMY Profit & Loss Summary **– Present-Forward Profiles*

*Year end June 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F*
*Sales revenue *$M* 242.3 586.7 824.6 769.4*
Other revenue $M 0.6 2.1 8.1 14.6
Operating Costs (168.4) (377.4) (496.3) (490.1)
Exploration Expense (0.8) (1.1) (0.6) (0.6)
Corporate & Admin (4.1) (5.3) (5.6) (5.7)

*EBITDA 69.6 205.0 330.3 287.7*
*Pre-tax profit 28.2 164.6 291.3 248.6*
*NPAT 15.9 115.9 203.9 174.0*


*SMY Cash Flows **– Present-Forward Profiles*

Year end June $M 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Operating Cash $M 59.0 142.1 239.0 209.8
Free Cash $M 14.7 115.1 194.7 190.3
Cash End Year$M 30.6 117.0 250.2 380.4


*SMY Bottom Line Balance Sheet *

Year end June $M 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Total current assets$M 73.1 222.6 398.6 518.9
Total n/c assets$M 142.4 115.7 125.8 148.1
Total assets$M 215.5 338.4 524.5 667.0
Total liabilities$M 114.4 74.2 103.7 94.7
Equity$M 48.9 134.4 279.7 404.6


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## Halba (23 April 2007)

It looks like there is still another 20% gas left in the tank, if comparison with WSA yields anything(WSA has gone up heaps, and is a similar new producer). WSA mkt cap probably over a billion now, but higher resources/production forecasts.


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## chris1983 (23 April 2007)

Freeballing SMY's figures were taken from their website and I got nothing against SMY.

Anyway.

You continually forget that AGM have a large portion of their nickel onsold and at a good price.  Remember the agreement with Jin-chuan?  Its very handy to have a partner like Jin-chuan.


US$2.2 billion offtake agreement & partnership with Jinchuan Nickel Group, China
8,500 tpa Ni in concentrates – offtake by Jinchuan Nickel, China

The agreement with Jin-chuan is supposedly amongst the highest paid for nickel concentrates.

Now you can keep saying its dangerous investing in a upcoming producer etc etc.  They have a large portion of their nickel onsold in an "agreement" with an extremely strong partner so risks are limited. Jinchuan will be helping them in every way possible with their expertise and experience to make sure everything runs through smoothly.  Whats wrong with investing in non producers?  If you think theres risk..which you do...you would obviously stay well away.  You can leave the risky shares like BMN/AGM/ERN to me


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> You continually forget that AGM have a large portion of their nickel onsold and at a good price. Remember the agreement with Jin-chuan? Its very handy to have a partner like Jin-chuan.
> 
> US$2.2 billion offtake agreement & partnership with Jinchuan Nickel Group, China
> 8,500 tpa Ni in concentrates – offtake by Jinchuan Nickel, Chin





Jinchuan have offtake agreements with most near term producers past and present........hedging risk for near term producers cuts both ways. Capex/Liquidity, dosent fall from trees without some security . 

Incidentally SMY's offtake from the Sallay Malay mill is via Jinchuan. It would be interesting to see what AGM's actual numbers are on the offtake agreement........... upside/downside to nickel tightness and speculation in AGM's current market cap.

Whats the numbers on AGM's offtake agreement Chris ?, whats the scenario if Nickles tightness continues and Jinchuan has them by the balls. The cashed up mid tiers have options now, the balls in thier court so to speak.


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## chris1983 (23 April 2007)

Ill just say what you want to hear.  SMY are the best..they are the greatest.  Doesn't change the fact I have made over 150% in 4-5 months.

What I know is

"The agreement with Jin-chuan is supposedly amongst the highest paid for nickel concentrates."

So it seems like they have done a good deal.  You can go against all the broker recommendations on AGM etc thats up to you.  I dont think your little debating will stop the SP moving up which is all I care about.  Like I said..the riskier shares just arent for you.  I love the "risky" ones.  Personally..AGM is one of my safest stocks so my portfolio could give you a heart attack.


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## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

Halba said:


> It looks like there is still another 20% gas left in the tank, if comparison with WSA yields anything(WSA has gone up heaps, and is a similar new producer). WSA mkt cap probably over a billion now, but higher resources/production forecasts.



It's about 900m.

But it's really the production figures that matter. I certainly think AGM has another 20% left in them. The increasing dilution is a problem in that regard though.

Freeballing... Does that reserves figure include the new upgrades, or is it just the resources that haven't had that factored in?


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## chris1983 (26 April 2007)

AGM just touched 90.  Getting closer and closer to the $1 barrier.


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## chops_a_must (26 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> AGM just touched 90.  Getting closer and closer to the $1 barrier.




Should get to at least 95c quite easily on this move. Just depends on the nickel market perhaps.

A nice bounce off the close MA yesterday signalled the run. Just about the only nickler not to have had a run recently, so it was due. VRE and MCR had done exactly the same thing this week as well. Second half of the days trading today suggests the same thing is due for AOE tomorrow.


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## chris1983 (26 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Should get to at least 95c quite easily on this move. Just depends on the nickel market perhaps.
> 
> A nice bounce off the close MA yesterday signalled the run. Just about the only nickler not to have had a run recently, so it was due. VRE and MCR had done exactly the same thing this week as well. Second half of the days trading today suggests the same thing is due for AOE tomorrow.




I nearly bought more AOE today too!  Hope your right.  Yeah AGM are just moving along as planned....they are holding a steep trendline on their graph pretty well.


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## chops_a_must (26 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> I nearly bought more AOE today too!  Hope your right.  Yeah AGM are just moving along as planned....they are holding a steep trendline on their graph pretty well.




AOE would be a great short term play right now. It's just that there are some higher probability plays around.

Anytime AOE dipped into the 1.80s, it was snapped up and chased up quick smart.


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## chicken (28 April 2007)

AGM did pretty well on friday rising to 92cents....I wish people would keep other stocks to the boards they refer to but to hijack this thread.....


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## d_crome (30 April 2007)

Trading halt?  Anybody have any idea what's the cause of this?

Hopefully it's good news (as I can see nothing but good things for the future of AGM).


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## rustyheela (30 April 2007)

Had a bit of a search around and it doesnt seem any other stox r in a trading halt. Hope you are rite about the good news!!


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## GOYCO (30 April 2007)

Chicken

What do you think is up? On HC seems we have 5 choices ( probably more) 
1) Capital raising ( I think unlikely as AGM have heaps of cash and arrangements with the banks etc) 
2) Takeover ( Seems to be a strange time for this but possible)
3) Big find, bid increase in reserves ( never been a trading halt before cause of this)
4) New order for another Ball Mill
5) Process ore from Melba at Helyer Mill

cheers
Goyco


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## jj0007 (30 April 2007)

Goyco.  Only point 1 and 2 warrant a trading halt till Wed.  My money is on a cap raising.... $10-15m.

Point 3, 4 and 5 would only require a trading halt if news leaked...and judging by previous trading days I don't think anything major has leaked.


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## chicken (1 May 2007)

GOYCO said:


> Chicken
> 
> What do you think is up? On HC seems we have 5 choices ( probably more)
> 1) Capital raising ( I think unlikely as AGM have heaps of cash and arrangements with the banks etc)
> ...




I wonder...but look at MLX with their 2.5million tons of Nickel...and the same Chinese partner...maybe that is the answer....but must be important as AGM has just brought out good news....this could be important as this would turn into a hugh company if this happends....check it out....all good news here..I am holding AGM since last year at 25cents....see Ghostas posts he told you all.......the facts were posted


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## GOYCO (1 May 2007)

Don't buy it Chicken

Why get messed up with Laterites? Really no synergies there. Processing completely different. The simplest explanation seems to be capital raising. I could be wrong

cheers


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## jj0007 (1 May 2007)

Well its a placement.  A big one...  $38.5m.
The Chinese will take as much nickel as they can dig out......

Surprised at the size of the placement.


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## chris1983 (1 May 2007)

jj0007 said:


> Well its a placement.  A big one...  $38.5m.
> The Chinese will take as much nickel as they can dig out......
> 
> Surprised at the size of the placement.




The placement is good.  Better to have those shares in the hands of a large investor like Jin-Chuan than anyone else.


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## doogie_goes_off (1 May 2007)

80c a share seems a lillte cheap, but I suppose it doesn't matter if you raise big bucks to make things happen


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## jj0007 (1 May 2007)

Placements are always done at a discount. 80c is ok I reckon.
Can someone confirm that 11% now is enough to block any potential nasty takeovers?  I can't remember whether it was 10% or 15% that is sufficient to block.

Also interview on BRR.  Still requires further funds which will be done through the banks.


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## chris1983 (1 May 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> 80c a share seems a lillte cheap, but I suppose it doesn't matter if you raise big bucks to make things happen




Its not bad.  They only broker over 80 not too long ago..and to raise that much money from Jin-chuan shows a lot of confidence from them.

Just touched a dollar..this is a good run.


----------



## pennystock (1 May 2007)

Lovely to see AGM hit a dollar today. Lets hope the gains continue, I'm sure they will.  
The backing they have makes this company alot stronger in my opinion.


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## chicken (1 May 2007)

pennystock said:


> Lovely to see AGM hit a dollar today. Lets hope the gains continue, I'm sure they will.
> The backing they have makes this company alot stronger in my opinion.




I agree with what you say.....the Chinese taken a 11% shareholding in AGM...and now AGM is just about bulletproof....everything SOLD....ball mill is being installed...mining had begun and ore stockpilled for processing....looking good....Ghosta pointed and posted on that....


----------



## GOYCO (2 May 2007)

Time to sit back and relax and wait for production to start and then wait for the revenues to come pouring in. Congratulations to all long term holders

cheers


----------



## runningrugby (2 May 2007)

Nice call from Goyco..

I could not have put it any better my self.
The only problem i can see in the future for the nickel industry
and market is companies substituting non nickel products into production. 
Eg non nickel stainless steel.


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## windwalker (2 May 2007)

You got it right Running, how farsighted was Goyco, personally I am enjoying the relaxing (with scotch) watching the price head North - may it continue for quite some time


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## GOYCO (2 May 2007)

Thanks Guys but in reality "All hail Ghosta" grumpy so and so that he is. Banned from this forum. Early days, the real growth is still to come. 

One day in the not too distant future we can all sit back and discuss how we "made it" from this company. Bring on production. 

Good luck

cheers


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## stupid (2 May 2007)

How stupid, exited agm yesterday and the sp increased by 9% today. not looking forward to tomorrow


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## Moneybags (2 May 2007)

stupid said:


> How stupid, exited agm yesterday and the sp increased by 9% today. not looking forward to tomorrow




Hey Stupid ( I think you should change your nic ), that's just the way it goes sometimes, it wasn't a stupid move if you locked in some profit. After all no one knows for sure which way a share will go after you buy or sell.

MB


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## stupid (2 May 2007)

Moneybags said:


> Hey Stupid ( I think you should change your nic ), that's just the way it goes sometimes, it wasn't a stupid move if you locked in some profit. After all no one knows for sure which way a share will go after you buy or sell.
> 
> MB




You're too kind Moneybags. I bought in at 32c, 46c and 60c. However I still think it was a mistake too sell.


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## jj0007 (3 May 2007)

Why is ghosta banned?  He is our little bud fox from tassy!

Anyhow...a post on another board indicates that AGM will receive 70-75% of market price for their concerntrates, which is about 10% more than average.  Gives us some boundries to punch into those earnings calcs.

Also indicated that hedging wont be required from bank financing as Jinchuan has significantly reduced the risk with it's recent cash injection.  Great news!


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## chris1983 (3 May 2007)

GOYCO said:


> Thanks Guys but in reality "All hail Ghosta" grumpy so and so that he is. Banned from this forum. Early days, the real growth is still to come.
> 
> One day in the not too distant future we can all sit back and discuss how we "made it" from this company. Bring on production.
> 
> ...




Ghosta is the whole reason I didn't bother posting on AGM too much when they were in the 20's.  He owned this thread lol.  I had held AGM previously from the 20's..then sold..then bought something else..then got back in..then sold.  When I could see it starting to break out again it was time to get in and hold.  Happy with it so far.  200% profit and its in the gf's money. Im in the good books now  haha  Welldone to holders.  This has further to run.  More discoveries will be made and recent discoveries will be extended.  I'm enjoying the ride.


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## chicken (3 May 2007)

stupid said:


> You're too kind Moneybags. I bought in at 32c, 46c and 60c. However I still think it was a mistake too sell.



At least you are honest about it...how far will this SP rise???...You allways can get back in ...but it will average your price higher...still you may see another 100% over the next 6 months as the SP is marching north...not possible but very much probable...


----------



## nizar (3 May 2007)

chris1983 said:


> When I could see it starting to break out again it was time to get in and hold.




Good man.
I like your style, Chris, and Im a huge fan of this approach.
Wait for the sp to breakout and THEN take a position.
Makes the prospect of opportunity cost less likely.


----------



## pennystock (3 May 2007)

I see Stupid bought almost the same parcels as me, 34.5c, 41.5c and 74.5c, still hold though. May the gains continue.


----------



## chris1983 (3 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Good man.
> I like your style, Chris, and Im a huge fan of this approach.
> Wait for the sp to breakout and THEN take a position.
> Makes the prospect of opportunity cost less likely.




Yeah man same.  I like the style too.  When the girlfriend can see you turn her money into 2 or 3 fold they will continue to give you more.  It allows you to have more funds to play with  haha

I know your talking about my other style..of buying shares..I'm just messing around   AGM are really powering though aren't they.  I'm sure the chartists would be thinking this one is getting overheated.  Not that I follow the charts..It would be just interesting to see.  I'll continue to hold this for atleast another 6 months..still lots of things for the company to progress.  Still need to move into production..continue their exploration in their newly found "nickel province" and Tax is another reason to hold.  AGM really will be able to take advantage of high nickel prices...The further backing of Jin chuan has pretty much put a rocket under the SP.


----------



## chicken (4 May 2007)

Check out that Ni price at www.kitco.com its just powering ahead....AGM just about ready to mill the ore for shipment to China...Chinese have a 11% in the company...wonder if they will buy more shares as it will be in their intrest....also..production could not have come at a better time...the SP will reflect what the market thinks...looking good...I am holding...enjoy the ride as more upside is to come here....


----------



## stupid (4 May 2007)

Exited a couple of days early, but hopefully to jump back in after some sort of correction. Got some tzn which hopefully will make up for the agm mistake


----------



## chicken (4 May 2007)

Volume was good and the share showed some strength on the close...$1.025 was the lowest and $1.04 the close..profitaking may have finished ...the SP will be different once milling has begun in the last quater of the year...it is mooted that AGM may be included in the next round in the ASX200 which would mean more insto buying....the NI price just keeps on rising higher....and as  the Chinese have taken a 11% stake in the company the upside is very probable....I am holding....


----------



## pennystock (5 May 2007)

I think it was inevitable the price would drop being a Friday and the price rally it had through the week. All said and done i feel there is still plenty of upside IMO,please do your own research. The risk factors have been decreased which makes me more comfortable.


----------



## chicken (5 May 2007)

Geothermal energy...AGM are applying or have applied to produce geothermal energy...will be ASX announcement on monday...Ghosta just posted on HC....makes intresting reading....


----------



## chicken (8 May 2007)

AGM share showed strength..finished up 3.5c...to $1.09...still a lot of run left as AGM approaches production....


----------



## jj0007 (8 May 2007)

Will be seperately funded so it looks like they will spin off a seperate company.  AGM shareholders getting first dibs.


----------



## chris1983 (9 May 2007)

Looks to be breaking out again.  Maybe ready for another run?  Could easily break its previous high today after the strong open.  Consolidation time is over and we are drawing closer and closer to production?


----------



## chris1983 (9 May 2007)

Wow..really running hard now..I wonder if any profit takers will jump in.  Considering a lot of profits have been taken above a dollar there are a lot of fresh holders now in the stock waiting for further rises.  Looks great.  Must be news soon..I highly doubt this run is due to the geothermal news they released the other day.


----------



## pennystock (9 May 2007)

I agree with Chris, when we see a run like this announcements are usually made a day or 2 later. Maybe results from tests or could we even imagine a new deposit..


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## chicken (21 May 2007)

meeting in Sydney tomorrow....will see this Sp go higher...see www.kitco.com...Nickel just about hitting $25.....AGMs CEO worked 75hours a week to get the mine into production..is taking a break and new CEO will be signed on...should hear tomorrow who it is....old CEO staying on ...interesting times ahead for AGM holders...


----------



## greenfs (21 May 2007)

I purchased in March @ $0.61 on prompting from key mine supplier that stock would run to $1+ pre Xmas 2007 based upon what they knew about the Tasmanian mine operation.

Personally, I doubt that there is any more gains to be had in the short to medium term, but I hope that I am wrong


----------



## chicken (21 May 2007)

greenfs said:


> I purchased in March @ $0.61 on prompting from key mine supplier that stock would run to $1+ pre Xmas 2007 based upon what they knew about the Tasmanian mine operation.
> 
> Personally, I doubt that there is any more gains to be had in the short to medium term, but I hope that I am wrong




As you said personally....well thats all it is...WHY,....as soon as production starts in the last quater.....so see who is right....as this is a quote from what everyone else thinks...but we could be all wrong and find the SP will be higher than that...


----------



## hoppielimp (21 May 2007)

Hello all,

Just a simplistic view on AGM, but if you comapre this with Jubilee (AGM will produce just slightly less nickel pa than Jubilee, 8500mts for AGM, Jubilee 9500mts), and you take into account the total shares on issue, you will find that currently AGM shud trade closer to low $3's...maybe a few cents more.

Ofcourse there are differences, like Jubilee is already producing...but if the nickel market holds, AGM will not be that far behind...maybe pushing past the $2-$2.50 mark by the end of the year if the mill startup all goes to plan.

Just my simplistic thoughts...


----------



## Sean K (21 May 2007)

hoppielimp said:


> Hello all,
> 
> Just a simplistic view on AGM, but if you comapre this with Jubilee (AGM will produce just slightly less nickel pa than Jubilee, 8500mts for AGM, Jubilee 9500mts), and you take into account the total shares on issue, you will find that currently AGM shud trade closer to low $3's...maybe a few cents more.
> 
> ...



hoppie, are there any other differences that could account for the disparity in valuation? JBM have a few deposits with about 500,000 tns Ni in a district containing about 7M tns, with significant exploration potential, and other investments. While they might be planning on producing around 9500tns a year they plan to ramp up to 20,000tns I think. I think JBM have about $280m in the bank too. How does that compare?


----------



## Broadside (21 May 2007)

kennas said:


> hoppie, are there any other differences that could account for the disparity in valuation? JBM have a few deposits with about 500,000 tns Ni in a district containing about 7M tns, with significant exploration potential, and other investments. While they might be planning on producing around 9500tns a year they plan to ramp up to 20,000tns I think. I think JBM have about $280m in the bank too. How does that compare?




My understanding is that AGM has significant exploration upside.  With regard to peer comparison, if we are indeed comparing apples with apples AGM is due for a major rerating when production commences.


----------



## hoppielimp (21 May 2007)

Hi Kennas,

Like I said its a simplistic view, but I look at the mine life which I believe stands about 15 years for AGM, which I think is long enough for an initial estimation without any further resources being discovered.

Jubilee yes intend to ramp up but this will take time.  From a snap shot point of view, the simplistic equation is where I placed AGM (full prod 8500mts) at roughly the same point in time of production etc as Jubilee. (I think at the time JBM = 16.50, FY07 production est. stated as 8500-9000mts)

So in theory AGM should get to a share value equivalent (about $3.10) close to where Jubilee is now (when they are in full production).  Jubilee as u mention are looking to increase production...and when it does or then ofcourse the comparisons end.

I believe the increase in production is scheduled for 2011 so for the time being I don't think JBM current share price has too much premium placed on this future increased production.

Now if the Nickel prices go down the gurgler then ofcourse everything goes out the window.


----------



## Sean K (21 May 2007)

Broadside said:


> My understanding is that AGM has significant exploration upside.  With regard to peer comparison, if we are indeed comparing apples with apples AGM is due for a major rerating when production commences.





hoppielimp said:


> Hi Kennas,
> 
> Like I said its a simplistic view, but I look at the mine life which I believe stands about 15 years for AGM, which I think is long enough for an initial estimation without any further resources being discovered.............
> 
> Now if the Nickel prices go down the gurgler then ofcourse everything goes out the window.



Yes, agree with the exploration upside for AGM but taking a cursory look at the maps JBM might have a little more to work with. I'm not sure if that is sufficient to explain the valuation disparity at this point though. 

Perhaps most of the valuation difference can be put in the stage of development? Maybe. 

I do have AGM having about 160,000 t compared to the 500,000 t that JBM have. If this is correct, then it is a significant difference. That should be a consideration in a valuation, perhaps. 

AGM have $50m in the bank, JBM $280m. I note ABN reckons they will need another $40m to get to production. Probably via a placement and spp diluting the company slightly but not a great deal. 

Not sure how grades compare? Could be a factor. Maybe AGM is better??

Some good broker reports on AGM's web site all slapping a buy on it, but target prices are $1.40, $0.73, and $0.89. I don't think they've upgraded the resource since these were put out. Brokers valuations are worth what though?

Anyway, all food for thought. Pretty hard comparing companies out there at different stages of development, different tonnage and grade, different management, blah, blah. AGM has been a stellar stock to own the past year. Hopefully they can get to production smoothly with no mishaps and Ni stays bouyant. All the best.


----------



## chicken (21 May 2007)

Credit swuisse just posted a report on Nickel....they are saying Nickel could hit $65000 a ton and prices will stay high for the next 2 years...AGM is starting production at the right time and their grades will be higher than others...I hold ,as all brokers have buy on this stock...AGM has so far delivered as promised and the mill is being installed now...see AGM news...tomorrow we have the AGM meeting and news should be very intresting...Also the contractors are mining the ore since march and its stockpiled for milling....


----------



## chicken (22 May 2007)

From AGM meeting....talk of listing on the Toronto exchange....3 drill rigs working to even find more Ni in Tassie....and all good news...Ni should stay over $25000 a tone for a while...see CS report...at present over $50k a ton...AGMs ball mill being installed no hitches..talk about a div.for next year...


----------



## Ken (22 May 2007)

CHICKEN you have done very well out of AGM.

Have you sold anything on the way up or just bought more??


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## gunditrader (22 May 2007)

Hi guys
Just wondering if anyone attended the agm today for agm. Apparently all the heads of departments were supposed to give presentations and Q & A. 

Any comments from anyone who attended would be very much appreciated. 

gundi


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## savtin (22 May 2007)

From another forum................................I too was at the meeting but the following captures the gist well.



Good afternoon folks, just back from AGM's agm, which ran for the best part of 3.5 hours. There were certainly a lot more people there than they had been expecting, so they had to stuff around with opening up another two sections of the conference room. The demographics were pretty evenly spread, not just the usual retirees. It was quite a buzz to be there actually, lots of people there would have made a truck load of money in the past 6 months or so. 

Anyway, onto the more intersting things from the AGM....

The formal session:

As expected, there were several questions / objections to the share options given to the employees/contractors and its diluting effect that it has on the company's SP. THR, Eddie and the good Rabi had to spend quite a bit of time defending the board's decision to grant these options. It all came down to the need to hold on to these key personnels, without them there is no Allegiance as it stands today. From my personal point of view, I sit here in my comfortable home writing this report, these people are out there day in, day out in the wild west coast of Tassie to bring me wealth. I can't really complain. They've done a tremendous job and there's a lot more to be done yet. 

An interesting question was raised regarding the possibility of dual listing on the Toronto Exchange! THR had to pause for a bit to gather his thought on how best to answer this question, to which he said... it's something that the board is "actively" considering! Make of it what you will .... He drew an analogy with gold companies... during the last resources boom, 75% of the gold producers were Australian owned and today, guess how many? it's only 25%! Most are now listed on the Toronto Exchange. He went on to say that if AGM doesn't grow quickly, it's only a matter of time that a takeover play will occur. 

On the subject of Dividend, THR pointed out that it's something that's definitely on the drawing board. They will decide at the time how best to deal with the profit, they may use it to pay off the existing debts first then divi later but his preference is for dividends! This time next year, he sort of hinted that we will be asking at the AGM, not when but how much 

The informal sessions:

There weren't anything really exciting to report. THR gave a pretty rosy picture of where PON will be with the China boom. They put up a slide on the developed and developing nations' consumption of Ni, China had hardly moved on the chart from 99 to 05. This indicates to THR that the boom has only just started. This probably means that PON will remain high for the forseeable future. He kept on saying above $25k, we'll all be very happy!

With the production plant, everything is going to plan. The project schedule was put up and it was pointed out that all the high risk bits are now behind us. The ball mill is a very low risk component, low technology bit of work. They don't foresee any issues there. 

Tim Callaghan, the Chief Geologist, gave a quick summary on their drilling program. There are 3 rigs out there, Bison, East Avebury and Saxon, working as fast as they can. They are looking to build up the reserve as quickly as they can and will announce as data comes to hand. He couldn't really say much more, again ... one needs to read between the lines on this one. 

The Geothermal stuff was rather uninspiring. They are at the very early stages of exploring the potential. It's important to note that Lindsay had to foresight to explore/exploit Ni when noone else is looking. This can ony be good for the long run.

That concludes what I gathered from the AGM. The only other informal stuff that I managed to gather after the sessions were:

1. There is no plan in place at present to order the 2nd ball mill. Incidentally, the lead time now is almost 2 yrs if one is ordered today.

2. Ian Levy stepped down from the CEO position due to health reasons. He'll be back on board when he's okay again. They've already found a replacement for Ian. I wonder if the SP will have another spike when this is announced?

I came away quite happy with what I heard and with PON to remain high, we can all look forward to reap more rewards soon!


----------



## greenfs (23 May 2007)

Thanks Savtin for a very informative overview. I really like this stock & think it is now time to buy in again and average up my entry price


----------



## chicken (27 May 2007)

Ken said:


> CHICKEN you have done very well out of AGM.
> 
> Have you sold anything on the way up or just bought more??




Have not sold in fact bought more at 98cents....mining had started...milling of ore starting soon...mill is being installed word is AGM will start earlier production...AGM starting at the right time...all looking good


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## mexican (27 May 2007)

Well done to all who have this stock, a real strong Ni miner.
I still think it has a long way to go, with the 2 billion dollar off take agreement deal and good Ni deposits it will only go up. If I had some spare $ would buy some more (.98).
I have noticed also that there has been 4 more exploration tenements granted for the NW of Tasmania.
So there is alot of good deposits in that area.


----------



## nioka (31 May 2007)

An obvious attempt to influence the price this morning. One minute before opening two large orders at 96 and 97c dissappeared from the buyers. I had an order in at 93.5c which was filled at opening. On the quotes earlier I had considered increasing my offer but luckily I couldnt get on in time


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## savtin (31 May 2007)

Nice one Nokia.

Good finish for AGM ....lets hope this is the start of the next leg up...

very very undervalued at present IMHO.

$1.50 by Xmas i think.


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## chicken (2 June 2007)

savtin said:


> Nice one Nokia.
> 
> Good finish for AGM ....lets hope this is the start of the next leg up...
> 
> ...




Look at www.kitcometals.com  add of AGM plus information about AGM,,,production start in October or 16 weeks away....lot of computer trading here also by brokers....tree shaking but SP should stay or slightly higher till production time in 16 weeks...June will be a non event till upgrade by brokers for AGM as this should happen...on the stainless news...INDIA is coming into the mix as more Ni is required by their mills so NI should stay high in price as there is a world shortage...the stock in LME is what the world needs or uses in 3 days....CS pointed this out 1 week ago...that Ni might go as high as $65k per tonne....and it looks as if the NI is not coming back to $25k in the near future...so its indeed looking good for AGM holders...DYOR


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## greenfs (5 June 2007)

The following commentary has been extracted from a Baillieu Briefing Note dated 25th May 2007:

*Reality checks for some emerging producers*

Given the current unease in the nickel and other non-ferous metals, we though it opportune to cross check our valuation with present share prices.

All 3 companies nominated have made recent presentations so we are working from their most current data.

The emerging two nickel producers in Albidon (Southern Zambia) and Allegiance Mining (Tasmania) are significantly overpriced, ie Albidion is selling at $2.89 (our valuation is presently around $2.10) for Allegiance its present share value is $1.06 (our current valuation is around $0.60c). In both cases we have assumed a longer life than is currently projected. Our long-term nickel price is US$5.50/lb (present spot price US$22/lb) which we see achieved in 2012.

In AGM's case, Jinchuan has 11% of the company, effectively removing any takeover attraction. Jinchuan has recently also become a shareholder in Albidon and given its previous history, one could expect that it will increase its shareholding......... 

Based upon the foregoing, would someone provide a comment/opinion as to whether the discount in AGM share price valuation at $0.60 appears right /realistic given the current spot price for nickel?


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## savtin (5 June 2007)

From my experience with Baillieu's past recommendations and opinions, I wouldn't trust them if my life depended on it....

I have seen companies they put sell orders on and the stock price goes in the opposite direction.

Don't let their scare tactics throw you off from purchasing a good quality stock.

They obviously would love to buy in at 60cents.

WHAT A JOKE!!!!! They don't have a grip on the reality of the situation in regards to the long term strength in the nickel market.


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## joeljp (5 June 2007)

greenfs said:


> The following commentary has been extracted from a Baillieu Briefing Note dated 25th May 2007:
> 
> *Reality checks for some emerging producers*
> 
> ...





Valued at 60c? you're kidding! And I suppose that's why Jinchuan decided to buy more at 80c? They really should do their research a little more thoroughly!

DYOR


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## pennystock (5 June 2007)

I think I have heard just about the funniest thing all year. Thanks for your fantastic sense of humour Baillieu, nice one.


----------



## chicken (5 June 2007)

greenfs said:


> The following commentary has been extracted from a Baillieu Briefing Note dated 25th May 2007:
> 
> *Reality checks for some emerging producers*
> 
> ...




Bigest joke I heared all year....see AGMs webside see Fox Davies brokers report dated the 10thMay2007.....I would buy as many shares as I could get for 60cents....THEY ARE A JOKE...but some people just cant help themself...this share will run up hard towards production which is only 4 months away....big buying today....and reports are all good


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## d_crome (10 June 2007)

Any idea what the drop in Nickle price (and possibly demand) is having on the SP?  Will AGM weather the storm and resist the drop as it's just so darn close to production or is it time to sell and jump on that Uranium band wagon?


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## joeljp (10 June 2007)

d_crome said:


> Any idea what the drop in Nickle price (and possibly demand) is having on the SP?  Will AGM weather the storm and resist the drop as it's just so darn close to production or is it time to sell and jump on that Uranium band wagon?




IMHO, should nickel continues to suffer in the next few weeks, AGM's sp could go down to about 80c. At 80c is where Jinchuan had agree to buy in. However, that'll only be a temporary retrace. AGM's due to earn some serious money in just a few short months time. 

By the way, I wouldn't go about hopping on the U-bandwagon as yet. If you believe that Rudd might win the election then check this out....

No nuclear power, says Rudd

June 10, 2007 

OPPOSITION Leader Kevin Rudd today insisted Australia could reach ambitious emissions reductions targets without resorting to nuclear power.
Mr Rudd said the key was to establish an emissions trading market not to adopt nuclear power. 

"The science of this is pretty basic. All the scientists around the world agree that we have got to reach a point whereby we actually bring total emissions down. That is the carbon target,'' he said.

Mr Rudd said once the target was set, the emissions trading scheme and the market could establish the most cost-effective means of achieving that target. 

"Then you would see a huge investment in alternative clean energies like solar, like wind, like geothermal and the rest. You'd set the right price signals for clean coal technologies and carbon sequestration and also for gas. 

"On the question of nuclear ... our position on that is for Australia, with this rich array of other alternative energy options available, we can achieve our overall carbon target without taking on the extra safety and environmental risks which the nuclear option for Australia would represent.'' 

Mr Rudd said Prime Minister John Howard's commitment to a policy of pledging and reviewing climate change targets sounded like pledging before the election then reviewing afterwards. 

"Mr Howard has just got to get fair dinkum about climate change. One of the risks to Australia's economic future is us not acting on climate change and water,'' he said. 

"Mr Howard has in fact fiddled while Rome has burned on this question.'' 

Mr Rudd said that dated back to the late 1990s when advice started to emerge on the need to act on climate change and continued right through until the lead-up to the election. 

He said Mr Howard had been a climate change sceptic now trying to convince people he was a climate change convert. 

"If you are fair dinkum, seriously fair dinkum about climate change there is one benchmark - you would have established a carbon target a long time ago and you'd be setting up an emission trading scheme and doing something about it,'' he said. 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21881014-1702,00.html


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## jj0007 (10 June 2007)

Its funny how individuals who post on stock forums are given all the red letter warnings about the contents that they post.  Yet reporters can publish any crap they like and not be accountable.  60c?  How the heck?


----------



## chicken (11 June 2007)

jj0007 said:


> Its funny how individuals who post on stock forums are given all the red letter warnings about the contents that they post.  Yet reporters can publish any crap they like and not be accountable.  60c?  How the heck?



As I said before...someone is dreaming or is trying to put the fear of death into people so they can buy.....I am sure the Chinese would buy all at 60cents...which is a dream....I personally think we are in for a bounce of the SP as AGM is oversold.....as far as 80cents...maybe...but I think the Chinese are watching and should someone want to sell it down to trigger stop losses we will see a hugh scramble for these share...see Fox Davies report...after all they got the experts who did the research....very good buying at present price


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## chicken (12 June 2007)

Computer and Broker automatic trading in place....Its frustrating to see 1 or 500 shares being traded by brokers...also see latest report..Intresting...as soon as the Nickel province is established and more finds are made AGM will show its colour....


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## chris1983 (14 June 2007)

Topped up with a decent parcel today.  Saw an opportunity for a quick trade.  Looks like it could pay off.  DOW's up and nickel is rebounding.  Up +3.41% on kitco.


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## GOYCO (14 June 2007)

Hi All

Does anyone want to hazard a guess for the production date?

I will officially put mine in at Sept 17th. Anyone else?

That's when the fun will start

Cheers


----------



## Santoro (14 June 2007)

The 30th April media release estimates production in Q4, they were a number of days ahead of schedule but this part of Tassie is not the place to be in winter...but makes for a perfect start spring/summer...so early November for me...


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## chris1983 (15 June 2007)

Allegiance look like they will have another positive day tomorrow.  Nickel stocks should bounce.  Nickel price is rebounding strongly.  Speculation caused the drop in Nickel.  This was only speculation.  Demand always remained strong.  Nickel currently up +4.53% on Kitco.


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## chicken (15 June 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Allegiance look like they will have another positive day tomorrow.  Nickel stocks should bounce.  Nickel price is rebounding strongly.  Speculation caused the drop in Nickel.  This was only speculation.  Demand always remained strong.  Nickel currently up +4.53% on Kitco.



Read....the Stainless steel news on Kitco metals....and that tells the full story,,,,looks as if the LME has not got it under controll...hope they got out of their shorts as NI is not getting back to $25k in the near future...maybe in 4 to 5 years...maybe,,,,and AGM is only 12 to 14 weeks away to production...and who thinks the SP will be under 90cents better think again


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## chris1983 (16 June 2007)

VWAP For AGM on Friday was 88.74. It closed at 86. Some holders are too impatient. The DOW closed up 85 points and Nickel closed higher for the third day running after being in negative territory earlier in the session. Due to nickel holding its price on Friday added with the combined heavy rise on the DOW I can see AGM having an open near the 89-90 mark again on Monday due to the VWAP being around that price on Friday..it was oversold on the close. It will be interesting but the negative sentiment on Nickel wont last IMO.  You will have all the brokers etc writing on it but Nickel prices is here to stay.  Demand doesnt just disappear.


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## Phoenix (16 June 2007)

chris i definatelly agree, oversold period ihmo. When it goes into production the price will definately rise atm i in at 87c .


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## Sean K (19 June 2007)

There is nothing definate about this. I'm continually surprised by people's bullishness on resource stocks rating them off current commodity prices when we are going through what might be a peak. This has come off because the price of Nickel is comming off unsustainable highs due to supply demand fundementals. Read the price of nickel thread for more info.

Technically, I see support around this level, where both horizontal and up trend support meet, which probably coincides with a nickel support line. There are other Nickel plays hitting support as well. Risk is still to the downside here, and 70 cents could not be discounted on further weakness in the PON. This is not a forecast, but an observation of where downside support is - if it goes that way. Needs to break $1.10 now to be considered going back up, IMO. 

Hopefully for holders there are no delays in ramp up to production, which could put further pressure on the sp. 

I've said this before, it's a great company with a very solid outlook, but will always be effected by factors outside it's control, such as PON, which is correcting.


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## chris1983 (19 June 2007)

Nickel got corrected last night..it was down almost 8%.  I sold on the open at 87 for a break even.  Kept my core holding though.  No way was I going to leave margin loan invested money in this for the short term though.  Long term its fine.  I wont sell my holding from 35 cents..waiting untill I have held 1 year.


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## UraniumLover (21 June 2007)

This had a good article  in Money magazine . As soon as price of nickel starts an upwards trend i'm in again. This downward trend in Nickel price was more due to speculation than actual physical demand.


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## Sean K (21 June 2007)

UraniumLover said:


> This had a good article  in Money magazine . As soon as price of nickel starts an upwards trend i'm in again. This downward trend in Nickel price was more due to speculation than actual physical demand.



UL, what do you think about the rise in Zinc to such hights? Was that just demand, or was that speculative buying? Very interesting. You can't have it both ways perhaps?


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## Santoro (21 June 2007)

Nickel stocks at LME decreasing...hardly significant at this stage but hopefully this will continue as it will obviously reflect on the price and demand for nickel.


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## chris1983 (21 June 2007)

Nickel is still going down..but even at 30 k/ton AGM will be doing well.  I will also top up again when nickel turns the corner.  Very cheap atm.


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## UraniumLover (21 June 2007)

Santoro said:


> Nickel stocks at LME decreasing...hardly significant at this stage but hopefully this will continue as it will obviously reflect on the price and demand for nickel.




With closer analysis price of nickel was  16 dollars at 8000 tonnes left LME 6 months ago.
currently it's at 17.20 at  9000 tonnes left LME.
The market fundamentals has hardly changes in 6 months. If you look 1- 5 years back  it's a no brainer..
I don't believe demand is out stripping supply by much and even now LME stocks are showing signs of falling already. It has only broken the 8000 left barrier once all year indicating Nickel is in short supply due to strong chinese demand for Stainless steel.
Some Analysts predict stock piles will double by Autumn - speculation
Buyers should soon move in I believe to avoid much higher future prices
As explained by this article:

Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $17.55/lb - 3 month buyer - $17.28/lb (14.44% higher than 1/1/07). Not that anyone seems to care at the moment, but LME inventories took a hit yesterday, revealing a 234 tonne loss. While Rotterdam received 18 tonnes, they also shipped out 54 tonnes. St Louis also shipped 18 tonnes, Gothenburg, Sweden, shipped another 30 tonnes, and Busan, South Korea, shipped a whooping 150 tonnes. This could mean different things, but most likely, it would imply some producers are gambling the price of nickel won't go much lower, and placed buy orders. Or they had to buy, whatever the price. This would imply that the non-existent demand, that some analysts have been reporting, is actually still out there, just playing it smart. As we have stated before, this is not a time where it is much fun being a buyer of nickel It was much easier telling the boss the nickel you bought last week, that hasn't arrived yet, is worth $20,000 more today than what you paid for it. These days that trip to the boss' office can be a very long and lonely walk. When the market is in a fall like it has been, a few days can make a huge difference. On the 1st of this month, if you paid the LME cash price, a tonne of nickel would have cost you $50,445. Monday of this week, that same tonne would have run you $41,200. Today, that tonne will cost you $38,700. When you are placing PO's for multiple tonnes, you can see how waiting another day could save, or cost your employer, potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars. And if that doesn't convince you, take that down to a per pound price. If you can save $.30/lb over what your competitor paid yesterday, or will pay tomorrow, it can make a big difference in your profit margin if you are selling stainless steel sheet for $3/lb. And we get ticked off when we fill up our gas tank and it drops by 2 cents a gallon the next day!!


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## chicken (26 June 2007)

How low can we go....I certainly will not get anywhere in the competition but....80cents looks to be the bottom...at present 79c...why I say this is the Chinese partner bought 11% of the company a few months back at 80cents,  as Ni started its price higher...but you all saw Ni come back from US$25 to present $18....or $37500 US a tone.....AGM will also be very profitable at US$20000 a tone...So, what I am saying AGM will start producing from Oct/Nov onwards and if you check the figures the company will have a very profitable operation...and present price after the big sell off must look very attractive ..once operation,or production starts the SP will be a lot different than it is now...I BOUGHT and am holding a good size parcel


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## d_crome (27 June 2007)

Ni prices DOWN to $16's today yet Ni RESERVES are sliding???

WTF mate!!??

How can something REDUCE in price when the demand has INCREASED??


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## Sean K (27 June 2007)

Looking more vulnerable now having broken down through support at 85 ish cents, which will now be resistance on the way back up. Maybe a little support around 75 ish, but 70 cents looks like next stop on way down.

Fundamentals on the company haven't changed of course, except assumptions of PON, which everyone has probably incorrectly assumed would stay at all time highs through to production and onward. 

Any revised fundamental forecasts out there on much lower Ni?


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## pennystock (27 June 2007)

There doesn't seem to be any let off for poor old AGM @ the mo! I'm hoping it's a lot to do with the end of tax year but with the Ni price retreating I think support as Kennas has stated could be around the 60c-70c mark. A broker did predict that AGM was worth 60c a while back and we had a laugh but things have turned for the worst. Having said all this I still believe AGM to be a good stock, hopefully this time next year we all might look back and smile


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## nioka (27 June 2007)

Todays price makes my top up of 16000 at 93c a week or two ago look sick. the quotes now are getting close to my average price. If it gets below my average of 67c I will buy more ,not sell. They will jump when production starts and that is getting closer. A resource upgrade would help. They seem to have the winter blues, bring on spring.


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## Bushman (28 June 2007)

A couple of points on this:

1. AGM is currently moving in correlation with the Ni price. LME quoted price of Ni in mid May was US$54k per tonne. This has gone down to approx $37k per tonne today. This represents a decrease of 31%. SP mid May was $1.17 down to $0.75 today. This represents a 36% decrease. I do not believe this should move purely with the Ni price based on my model presented below. 

2. Per the FD Capital report dated May 07, the price of Ni should remain strong over the next 3 yrs until BHP (Raventhorpe) and CVRD (Goro) ramp up production in CY09/10. Current drop down to $37k seems to have a speculative element. 

3. FD Capital give AGM a base case NPV per share of $0.81. I have produced a spreadsheet that reproduces that base case. 

View attachment Base case Allegiance Mining v1.xls


Assumptions as per FD report - 
- production 1m tonne pa ore @ 70% cut off grade, 11.93 MT over life of project (thus a 12 yr mine life).
- recovery 1.4% CY08 down to .8% in CY19.
- price per tonne assumption Ni $42,593 CY08, $35,422 CY09, $26,593 CY10, $14,330 CY11 to CY19.
- Jinchaun royalty 70 to 75% (I have assumed 72.5%)
- Mining costs per pound; CY08 $6.03, CY09 $5.77, CY10 to CY19 $5.15. Someone please check my pound to tonne conversion - I only know the metric system.
- Discount rate 10%
- Shares 682,500,000. 

4. Base case NPV will be affected by the current factors - 
- production increases at Avebury mill up to 1.8 mt. This is said to be a conservative measure;
- significant exploration potential in Bison discovery funded by Avebury cashflow;
- unused mills to increase capacity; and
- price of Ni.

My model allows for basic sensitivity. Thus if you are bearish on Nickel and decrease PD Capital estimates by 25% uniformly over the life of the asset, you will have a base case NPV of $0.48 IMO. However this ignores increased production. Thus if Ni prices decreases but production increases 80% (conservative estimate), NPV per share is $0.86. PD report has price forecast of $1.40 which implies Ni price estimates will hold and production will increase by factor of 1.8. This ignores the exploration potential. 

Would be interested in peoples thoughts. I think this one is a good one and could easily hit $1.40 IMO given that long term PD estimate used seems conservative. By the way, I do not own any of these yet but am looking to do so once I free up some money.

With this one, DYOR and keep in mind that your view on Ni will very much influence your valuation despite the production upside. The gods and Asia will be the judge of this.

Note: report I quote is available on the Allegiance website. Excel model is my own creation so it could be way of the mark!


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## chicken (29 June 2007)

Niece bounce here as anything below 80c is a gift....over 6 million shares traded...as high as 81cents...blast I wished it bounced on monday..as it would have given me a niece start in the competition...ah well those are the breaks...


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## porkpie324 (29 June 2007)

Yes chick a good SP rise today, topped up this morning, got back into AGM last week at .80c, I think AGM are oversold. BTW you can trade AGM with CFDs now porkpie


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## nioka (4 July 2007)

News today regarding a delay in the date for the production commencement and a dilution of the shares through a placement to Jinchuan probably explains the recent fall in the AGM SP. It will delay the profit I have anticipated from my investment in AGM but I do have faith that we will be well rewarded when production does eventuate. It appears most things are on track but the completion of the processing plant is delayed.


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## d_crome (9 July 2007)

Any outstanding reason for AGM's schlacking today?

5 cent drop and it looks to be headed to the 60's again - are people really THAT impatient for a return?

Looks like there's alot of short term, fair weather investors in the AGM boat - hopefully it doesn't ruin it for us long term holders.


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## Bushman (9 July 2007)

LME nickel price is down further today - $35,500 per tonne. 

Would've thought that the Jinchaun shareholding would have had some upside given it locks in a equity partner that sells 90% of the nickel into China.

This one is baffling me as well as I am yet to read that the bottom has fallen out of the nickel market price forecasts in the medium term?  Maybe it is a short term sell down as Ni comes down from an all time high and mgt lose some credibility due to a mine timetable blow out.


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## porkpie324 (9 July 2007)

There has been a delay announced last week and as we all know any delay with a projected mine results in any companies SP being hammered, I got caught out too, had to close at a loss last week, but there will be some good buying oppotunities to come soon I'm sure.porkpie


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## nioka (10 July 2007)

AGM has a reverse speeding ticket today, having to explain the fall in the SP.
One of the reasons given was "various articles appearing in Tasmanian and national press about delays of 4 months which, to our best of knowledge, is not the case."
As the SP has now fallen to my average buying price it is now time for me to increase my holding.


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## Broadside (10 July 2007)

nioka said:


> AGM has a reverse speeding ticket today, having to explain the fall in the SP.
> One of the reasons given was "various articles appearing in Tasmanian and national press about delays of 4 months which, to our best of knowledge, is not the case."
> As the SP has now fallen to my average buying price it is now time for me to increase my holding.




it referred to a delay from Oct/Nov to early the following quarter, and the next point was blaming erroneous reports of a 4 month delay...um, it would seem the reports were consistent with what the company told us last week?


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## Sean K (10 July 2007)

chicken said:


> Niece bounce here as anything below 80c is a gift.......



If anything is a gift below 80, this must be Christmas Chicken...........You must be backing up the truck here......but Ni still looks vulnerable to further correction.......which was of course not in your ramping plan.......toot toot......sincere appologies to those in the red.......I sincerely hope PON recovers for you......topping up now seems fraught with danger IMHO, until there is a confirmed turnaround.......a slow down ticket?......OMG......at record XAO!......All the best to sincere longs....


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## porkpie324 (10 July 2007)

I think the chairmans comments on 4th July is what decided me to close my loosing position, the excuse regarding the delay was pathetic blaming market conditions etc. I still rgard AGM as a good prospect but there could be more pressure to come. porkpie


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## chicken (10 July 2007)

kennas said:


> If anything is a gift below 80, this must be Christmas Chicken...........You must be backing up the truck here......but Ni still looks vulnerable to further correction.......which was of course not in your ramping plan.......toot toot......sincere appologies to those in the red.......I sincerely hope PON recovers for you......topping up now seems fraught with danger IMHO, until there is a confirmed turnaround.......a slow down ticket?......OMG......at record XAO!......All the best to sincere longs....




See Kitco...Stainless news...PON to be around the $35000 a ton US....seems to be staying around this price....do not forget...there is still a shortage of Ni...the LME stock is 2.5days of what the world uses..I have even heared that Ni has everychance to rally...anything is possible in this bull market...AGM has got a ticket...why the FALL in the SP price...and there seems to be buyers coming in now..has it turned..dont know but looking at the graphs and indicators Mac etc...one can see its well oversold ...and Kennan I am sure you can see that as well....longterm AGM is well positioned...bought today at 68.5c...to 69c....stock has risen to 71cents as I talk..and big buyers are buying....maybe the insto have seen the light as the sell down was overdone..but who knows the market


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## Sean K (11 July 2007)

chicken said:


> has it turned..dont know but looking at the graphs and indicators Mac etc...one can see its well oversold ...and Kennan I am sure you can see that as well



too early to tell, but these indicators are saying it has stopped for the moment.....hitting 200 d ma might help.......but.....look at the downtrend resistance line..........other horizontal resistance as shown.......picking bottoms and catching knives give bloody dity fingers........buyer beware......not sure where you get your nickel facts from?........plucked?......all I read is bad karma for Ni........



> FN Arena news 18 June:
> 
> GSJB Were points out the latest rule changes at the LME, which are designed to prevent any collusion between major players in the nickel market, are also impacting on demand, just as the supply side picture is also being clouded.
> 
> ...


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## Jaeger (14 July 2007)

Just dont get this stock price given the prices of similar stocks at the mo.  PON aside, the PE ratio out to 2008 is set at 4.1, given it is currently at 45 for this year with production coming in beginning of 1st quarter 08. AGM's own Biz plan allows pricing for Nickel at US$15,000 p Tonne.  I see that the upside in this share given 08 PE ratio is 4.1 should be much higher share price even in the near medium term.

DYOR, my thoughts are my own only...


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## mexican (14 July 2007)

kennas said:


> too early to tell, but these indicators are saying it has stopped for the moment.....hitting 200 d ma might help.......but.....look at the downtrend resistance line..........other horizontal resistance as shown.......picking bottoms and catching knives give bloody dity fingers........buyer beware......not sure where you get your nickel facts from?........plucked?......all I read is bad karma for Ni........




Time will tell. I don't read too much into it, as sometimes the big boys keep the important facts to themselves and let everyone else (ieublic) what they want them too hear.


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## chicken (15 July 2007)

kennas said:


> If anything is a gift below 80, this must be Christmas Chicken...........You must be backing up the truck here......but Ni still looks vulnerable to further correction.......which was of course not in your ramping plan.......toot toot......sincere appologies to those in the red.......I sincerely hope PON recovers for you......topping up now seems fraught with danger IMHO, until there is a confirmed turnaround.......a slow down ticket?......OMG......at record XAO!......All the best to sincere longs....




Well,.....like MGX where you and I had a difference...and go back and look what you said...re MGX...look at it NOW....so re AGM...I get my information from Kitcometals ....read Latest Stainless news....there its All the news by experts in this field....AGM is OVERSOLD...see your graph and mac on the technicals...70c seems to be holding....as far as KARMA...re Ni that will change as buying kicks in....see Damenstahls report..Thyssen in Germany are doubling their production of stainless steel in 2008....also Damenstahl said the 2007/2008 price of Ni will be between $30000 and $38000 a ton....as far as ramping AGM dont need to as at present its well manipulated by a big buyer....see buys and sells...and whoever it is will let it run when he or she is ready....Pity that production is delayed but share price will make up for it as soon as production starts....


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## mexican (15 July 2007)

chicken said:


> Well,.....like MGX where you and I had a difference...and go back and look what you said...re MGX...look at it NOW....so re AGM...I get my information from Kitcometals ....read Latest Stainless news....there its All the news by experts in this field....AGM is OVERSOLD...see your graph and mac on the technicals...70c seems to be holding....as far as KARMA...re Ni that will change as buying kicks in....see Damenstahls report..Thyssen in Germany are doubling their production of stainless steel in 2008....also Damenstahl said the 2007/2008 price of Ni will be between $30000 and $38000 a ton....as far as ramping AGM dont need to as at present its well manipulated by a big buyer....see buys and sells...and whoever it is will let it run when he or she is ready....Pity that production is delayed but share price will make up for it as soon as production starts....




She will be right chicken, I don't think Jinchuan would have a finger in AGM'S pie if they were not worth it.
With all the production for high grade stainless around the world in the future, demand for Ni will be there for a while.
China did at one stage use a lower grade stainless steel and it bit them on the backside as it lasts as long as mild steel.


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## porkpie324 (15 July 2007)

Everyone should know my past and present opinion on nickel and nickel miners, found this article on kitco which probably explains a lot about the share prices of nickel miners recently. http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6458516.html  All nickel stock holders should read this article. porkpie


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## greenfs (16 July 2007)

chicken said:


> Well,.....like MGX where you and I had a difference...and go back and look what you said...re MGX...look at it NOW....so re AGM...I get my information from Kitcometals ....read Latest Stainless news....there its All the news by experts in this field....AGM is OVERSOLD...see your graph and mac on the technicals...70c seems to be holding....as far as KARMA...re Ni that will change as buying kicks in....see Damenstahls report..Thyssen in Germany are doubling their production of stainless steel in 2008....also Damenstahl said the 2007/2008 price of Ni will be between $30000 and $38000 a ton....as far as ramping AGM dont need to as at present its well manipulated by a big buyer....see buys and sells...and whoever it is will let it run when he or she is ready....Pity that production is delayed but share price will make up for it as soon as production starts....




I cannot see how a big buyer could possibly be accused of manipulating the sp in recent times when all it has been doing is heading south. The reasons for the sp drop are (i) Decline in Ni price, (ii) Reduced Broker Valuation ($0.60) and (iii) Production delays..... resulting in sellers outweighing buyers for the time being. I for one will buy back in low 60's and would be prepared to guess from the charts that this will be where the sp bottoms.


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## shag (16 July 2007)

chicken said:


> See Kitco...Stainless news...PON to be around the $35000 a ton US....seems to be staying around this price....do not forget...there is still a shortage of Ni...the LME stock is 2.5days of what the world uses..I have even heared that Ni has everychance to rally...anything is possible in this bull market...AGM has got a ticket...why the FALL in the SP price...and there seems to be buyers coming in now..has it turned..dont know but looking at the graphs and indicators Mac etc...one can see its well oversold ...and Kennan I am sure you can see that as well....longterm AGM is well positioned...bought today at 68.5c...to 69c....stock has risen to 71cents as I talk..and big buyers are buying....maybe the insto have seen the light as the sell down was overdone..but who knows the market




excuse my ignorance, but what are the signs showing a big buyer is manipulating the  stock? what do i look for in particular?
i take it they are selling it down strategically?
cheers


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## Sean K (17 July 2007)

shag said:


> excuse my ignorance, but what are the signs showing a big buyer is manipulating the  stock? what do i look for in particular?
> i take it they are selling it down strategically?
> cheers



Shag, comments regarding stock manipulation should be taken with a grain of salt. They are usually used to explain away the drop in an sp by punters particularly bullish on a stock. I'm yet to see a really convincing case of a stock being 'capped' or manipulated down for whatever reason. Others will have a different opinion, but might need to provide a live example as evidence.


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## chicken (17 July 2007)

shag said:


> excuse my ignorance, but what are the signs showing a big buyer is manipulating the  stock? what do i look for in particular?
> i take it they are selling it down strategically?
> cheers




See at the start of trading..usually there is one LARGE sell 100k plus at lower prices than being presently paid...either a large trader or broker....who may be in the process in buying at lower prices...to manipulate the SP of any stock is very simple...you sell large parcells of stock on the sell side to reduce price and buy back lower on the buy price....its done everyday in stocks...and one who has the $$$ is in the position to dictate prices....so whats new...the only thing I hope the TSX listing in Canada will go ahead as soon as possible as it would do wonders for this stock...anyone in  this stock under 80cents will find when production starts which is not years away but months will do very niecly here...see latest pictures of the company published yesterday....Kennan did you check what you said about MGX.....???


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## nioka (17 July 2007)

shag said:


> excuse my ignorance, but what are the signs showing a big buyer is manipulating the  stock? what do i look for in particular?
> i take it they are selling it down strategically?
> cheers




I believe most of the claims of manipulation are "over the top" but it does happen, Today before opening there were buy orders for PRE at an increase on yesterdays price and sell orders to match. Just before the trading commenced the whole set up changed and trading commenced at reduced prices. A couple of weeks ago the same thing happened with AGM. There were 2 buy orders for 500000 each withdrawn seconds before trading. ???

( Refer my post 733.)


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## chicken (20 July 2007)

Looks like as quick as it went down...its going up the same way...buyers lining up again...


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## Phoenix (20 July 2007)

Not too late to enter . It looks like it just broke out from its downtrend. Dunno to be or not to be that is the question.......


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## chicken (21 July 2007)

chicken said:


> Looks like as quick as it went down...its going up the same way...buyers lining up again...




Now, did I say that....??????? 80c plus next week...PON rising again....maybe I win this competition jet......see www.kitcometals.com read the latest on stainless steel news...explains it all.......what a market


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## Sean K (21 July 2007)

chicken said:


> Now, did I say that....??????? 80c plus next week...PON rising again....maybe I win this competition jet......see www.kitcometals.com read the latest on stainless steel news...explains it all.......what a market



At last a price forecast I might agree with because materials and commods continue to fly and Ni has actually gone up a few ticks overnight. Plus, Friday's chart is pretty bullish for a turnaround. And the stock is already sitting on 80 so it won't take much to push over. Well done Chicken.  On the other hand DOW off a pile, so general sentiment might be cause for pause. 

Chart is definately looking like a bottom IMO, even though I have seen too many bearish comments on Ni supply/demand funnymentals. The gap up over resistance, _should _ now be support, with forward resistance at 82.5 ish a small hurdle.


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## nizar (21 July 2007)

kennas said:


> Chart is definately looking like a bottom IMO, even though I have seen too many bearish comments on Ni supply/demand funnymentals. The gap up over resistance, _should _ now be support, with forward resistance at 82.5 ish a small hurdle.




Hi Kennas.
I agree and think the bottom is in with this one.
Decreased volumes as she bounced off 70. Higher volumes on the updays.

Breakaway gap up at yesterdays open and managed still a white candle on volume, ran all day.

Looks good to me.
And the fact that theres too many bearish comments on Ni fundamnetals -- I would take that as a bullish sign!


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## shag (22 July 2007)

kennas said:


> At last a price forecast I might agree with because materials and commods continue to fly and Ni has actually gone up a few ticks overnight. Plus, Friday's chart is pretty bullish for a turnaround. And the stock is already sitting on 80 so it won't take much to push over. Well done Chicken.  On the other hand DOW off a pile, so general sentiment might be cause for pause.
> 
> Chart is definately looking like a bottom IMO, even though I have seen too many bearish comments on Ni supply/demand funnymentals. The gap up over resistance, _should _ now be support, with forward resistance at 82.5 ish a small hurdle.




hi guys, do you prefer options or cfd's for trading? i looked for warrants on allegiance, sadly none. i wouldn't mind taking a leveraged punt on it going north above my ordinary agm holding.
cheers shag.


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## Santoro (22 July 2007)

chicken said:


> Now, did I say that....??????? 80c plus next week...PON rising again....maybe I win this competition jet......see www.kitcometals.com read the latest on stainless steel news...explains it all.......what a market




Thanks Chicken...(from the stainless steel news at kitco)..perhaps worth reading for those who haven't done so.

"And last Friday, China press reported that demand was so slow that pig nickel producers were shutting down production. Typically, this type of news would be classified very bearish, but many decided the true reason they were shutting down, was the price of nickel had fallen to a level they could no longer economically produce. We feel the news that really rattled the market came on Wednesday. It told us that even with all this mysterious pig nickel production going on in China, the nickel market remained in deficit during the first five months of the year, according to a report by WBMS. This was news that those who felt nickel had fallen too far were waiting to hear. And for the third solid day, nickel prices increased. Two things to watch for now. First, if their are buyers for nickel that have been waiting to buy, we should see them make their move soon. Cancelled warrants did increase by a percent yesterday, but we will need to see this number rise much higher before we can say this is happening with any certainty. And second, will the pig nickel producers fire back up? If not, and demand stays low, then demand, and not the price has been guiding their recent slowdown. If they do fire back up, with demand staying what it is, then we can peg the $14 - $15/lb range as their break even point, which would be much higher than previously thought. Interesting days ahead"

Keep the eyes open for the signals....seems unlikely that prices will fall beyond what we have seen...


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## porkpie324 (22 July 2007)

Someone enquiring about leverage on AGM, CMC has CFDs on AGM, I have 2 open positions at the moment with them . porkpie


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## Morgan (3 August 2007)

Chicken?... Where are you when we need some moral support? 
I'm back to even stevens now on AGM and still wondering why the heck I didn't sell at $1.10


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## nioka (3 August 2007)

Morgan said:


> Chicken?... Where are you when we need some moral support? :




Seems he is lost in the wilderness. He hasn't had a post for two weeks now. Maybe he is in Tassie trying to speed things along. My buy at 93c and my average at 67c look a bit sick at the moment. But why worry, each day is one closer to production and a good SP.


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## pennystock (4 August 2007)

Hi Guy's

I sold AGM this week after holding the stock for just under a year. I sold at a profit of 35% but was at one stage looking at 150%. Although I made on this stock it broke my heart to sell, I really had high hopes for AGM and still do but you just can't ignore the current nickel price and trend it has taken. Charts were tell a story at 90c but I held on with hope, I will look at AGM again when things improve, it will probably rocket on Monday...LOL, but still you guy's who are holding best of luck and best wishes.

Pennystock


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## porkpie324 (4 August 2007)

I closed both my positions with AGM one last week for a small gain, the other this week for a loss (my first with AGM).
  Its not just AGM weakness its all nickel sector stocks. There's been some excellent quarterly reports but with this present nickel weakness it does'nt mean a thing, any further nickel price falls will just mean more of the same.
  So just wait it out then buy back in it will come right. porkpie


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## joeljp (5 August 2007)

nioka said:


> Seems he is lost in the wilderness. He hasn't had a post for two weeks now. Maybe he is in Tassie trying to speed things along. My buy at 93c and my average at 67c look a bit sick at the moment. But why worry, each day is one closer to production and a good SP.




I believe Chicken is in Singapore this week on vacation. He'll be back soon enough and hopefully bring back some badly needed luck with him 

Don't worry too much about AGM's sp. She'll be right in a month or so when common sense returns to the market. The current PON will put an end to many pig nickel producers, so Ni will recover soon enough.


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## rederob (5 August 2007)

joeljp said:


> I believe Chicken is in Singapore this week on vacation. He'll be back soon enough and hopefully bring back some badly needed luck with him
> 
> Don't worry too much about AGM's sp. She'll be right in a month or so when common sense returns to the market. The current PON will put an end to many pig nickel producers, so Ni will recover soon enough.



Look to re-enter AGM below 53cents.
Safe re-entry is 43cents, but nickel may have perked up before it gets that low.
I think PON at $25k/tonne is very probable near term and we may even get to low 20's before nickel fundamentals return: We have yet to work off the stainless steel surplus, and order books are very accommodating at present.
Note the chart difference between a producer like SMY and AGM: rate of price decline is much less.
Nickel equities should be avoided for now, except for those reporting extraordinary finds.


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## d_crome (6 August 2007)

Hey red - care to shed some light on some numerical analysis supporting your re-entry figures?

Hopefully this thread doesn't start emulating the AGM thread on another large stock forum site...


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## nioka (6 August 2007)

rederob said:


> Look to re-enter AGM below 53cents.
> Safe re-entry is 43cents, but nickel may have perked up before it gets that low..




And pigs might fly. If they get that low look out for flying objects. I'll certainly buy more before that and I can't see anyone in their right mind selling at those prices.


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## Jaeger (6 August 2007)

nioka said:


> And pigs might fly. If they get that low look out for flying objects. I'll certainly buy more before that and I can't see anyone in their right mind selling at those prices.




Too Right...

at 43c safe re entry, PE ratio would be near 2.0 going into 2008. At current SP the PE reation is now below 4 for 2008, at any of these prices it must be a top buy. I keep reading the press on the Price of Nickel being down, but so what, if you look at AGMs business plan, all its financial forecasts are based on US$15,000 p/t.


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## porkpie324 (6 August 2007)

I would love to agree with some of the above post's regarding AGM's SP, but until the stock's of nickel start declining and the price starts to go up all nickel stocks will remain under pressure and coupled with the nervousness of world markets it 'aint gonna change.
 As for AGM's SP going down to .53c its very likely unless as I mentioned a turn around in the base metal happens.
 Check out some other far better producers than AGM like IGO, MCR, SMY, the same thing is happening with them. porkpie


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## Captain_Chaza (6 August 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> I would love to agree with some of the above post's regarding AGM's SP, but until the stock's of nickel start declining and the price starts to go up all nickel stocks will remain under pressure and coupled with the nervousness of world markets it 'aint gonna change.
> As for AGM's SP going down to .53c its very likely unless as I mentioned a turn around in the base metal happens.
> Check out some other far better producers than AGM like IGO, MCR, SMY, the same thing is happening with them. porkpie





Pigs will Fly first!

In the mean time the Chinese have done "an OPEC" and reduced their production of Stainless Steel by 20%

Good luck with all your Out 'O' Market wishful DREAMS

Salute and Dream-On
I feel Good!


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## chicken (8 August 2007)

Read what was said at diggers and dealers...will be producing Ni soon...and buyers have returned...at 67.5c its 12.5c below what the placement was for 41million shares....the Sp looks cheap at price....seems to be heading up....


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## porkpie324 (10 August 2007)

SP down today, now at .585 getting near that .53, or over 9% for today. Watch out for flying pigs, porkpie


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## nioka (16 August 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> SP down today, now at .585 getting near that .53, or over 9% for today. Watch out for flying pigs, porkpie




The flying pigs arrived today and because I'm partial to pork I increased my holding and brought my average price down. Not enough to get out of the red yet but close. This must be one of the best buys on the market. Production getting close now and should fire when sales commence. Production will take it out of the "spec" domain.


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## Captain_Chaza (16 August 2007)

nioka said:


> The flying pigs arrived today and because I'm partial to pork I increased my holding and brought my average price down. Not enough to get out of the red yet but close. This must be one of the best buys on the market. Production getting close now and should fire when sales commence. Production will take it out of the "spec" domain.





Me too!!!
What a great day to be cash rich

Did you buy any of those Lean Hog futures also?
Crikey!
If these pigs can really fly ?
The sky is the limit

Salute and Gods' speed


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## porkpie324 (16 August 2007)

Well I've battoned down the hatches, sold my last nickel stocks nearly 2 weeks ago MCR & IGO both stocks and other nickel stocks all ,made some good gains.
 I went out for the day today so missed all that action, but I'm going to wait until this volatility passes then I will look at nickel stocks again.
 As for AGM SP falling now to just over 50c well thats the way it is right now a good company with good prospects but during this period I hate to say it again but it 'aint goona improve. porkpie


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## rub92me (17 August 2007)

nioka said:


> The flying pigs arrived today and because I'm partial to pork I increased my holding and brought my average price down. Not enough to get out of the red yet but close. This must be one of the best buys on the market. Production getting close now and should fire when sales commence. Production will take it out of the "spec" domain.



I think it it clear to see that the AGM shareprice is in a pretty steep downtrend at the moment. Why do you think that this will stop now?? To call this one of the best buys on the market you must have some pretty convincing arguments. 
I would consider buying back in if the below conditions are met:
1) Nickel price stops falling off a cliff and closes at least 10% above the 3 month low and stays there for a month.
2) The market as a whole starts behaving.
Neither of these are likely in the short term imho.


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## nioka (17 August 2007)

rub92me said:


> I think it it clear to see that the AGM shareprice is in a pretty steep downtrend at the moment. Why do you think that this will stop now?? To call this one of the best buys on the market you must have some pretty convincing arguments.
> I would consider buying back in if the below conditions are met:
> 1) Nickel price stops falling off a cliff and closes at least 10% above the 3 month low and stays there for a month.
> 2) The market as a whole starts behaving.
> Neither of these are likely in the short term imho.




AGM is getting closer to production and if we believe announcements has no need for finance raising. It has or will have, a lower cost of production than most other nickel miners. It has arranged partnership arrangements in China for the sale of it's production. It should be in a position to pay early dividends when production starts.The AGM project was planned to be profitable with much lower nickel prices than those current.
At todays prices it has a market cap of only $385m compared to SMY"s $597m
I acted now because I believe when the market "as a whole starts behaving" the price will be much higher than it is today.


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## rub92me (17 August 2007)

Fair enough. But SMY's market cap was probably about 150 million at the same stage prior to production. Long term it may not matter, however I don't know where the bottom of the Nickel price is and when it will reach that. If they're undhedged it will drag on their profitability. They may still make money, but not nearly as much as was factored in the price 3 months ago


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## Ken (17 August 2007)

I wouldnt be suprised if AGM settles around 45 cents.

the force of the downward trend will take something to break it.

it will not stop just because it gets to 50 cents. something significant must happen for the trend to change.

5% change of trend changing.

something must happen or it will continue in the same direction.

it was probly overbought on the way up.

so all things in prospective. buy a few at 50 cents buy a few at 40 cents. buy a few at 30 cents. and average your price out if you can.

you can buy them on margin loan. but what we dont want to see is an SBM where it goes sideways for an extended period.

no dividend here.


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## greenfs (23 August 2007)

I sold @97cents based upon a broker's valuation @60cents. I am now back into this stock confident that buyers will soon support the sp based upon known fundamentals. When the charts confirm my opinion, I intend doubling my trade.


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## chicken (23 August 2007)

At 65.5cents still cheap as chips....back to 80cents plus..why...ask the Chinese they bought 11% of the company at 80cents....and soon to go into production...looking all good here...DYOR.....


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## chicken (29 August 2007)

chicken said:


> At 65.5cents still cheap as chips....back to 80cents plus..why...ask the Chinese they bought 11% of the company at 80cents....and soon to go into production...looking all good here...DYOR.....




Looks like I am eating my own words....I bought more today at 58cents...once in production in the new year these prices are cheap as Ni will be still highly in demand...after all our Chinese partner IS BUYING THE LOT AT GOING prices up or down....as far as what the NI price will be..I wish I knew...but as AGM is a LOW cost Ni producer we will see the benefits of this in the new year....A Ni province in Tasmania is confirmed see Kitco metal report as more Ni is being discovered there....intresting times ahead


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## Jaeger (14 September 2007)

Pigs have landed and going home.

SP beginning to bounce back as with the rest of the commodities.

Ni price holding around $26K - $29K / tonne so is looking good.

Next stop sp back to .80c  where the chinese bought in, then to a sp price in line with PE ratio of 8 - 10 once milling starts. 

Would be nice!

DYOR.


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## nioka (27 September 2007)

A trading halt today. Any ideas why? Possibly fund raising or a new find? Let us hope it is favourable for the SP.


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## Sultan of Swing (27 September 2007)

I see FMG hit $50 today, they were 50 cents 3 yeaers ago. What are the chances of AGM hitting $50 in three years time?  

I can only hope I spose.....

No idea why the trading halt but I hope its good news.


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## hoppielimp (27 September 2007)

Yes would be nice for AGM to hit $50...

Unfort don't think that will happen in the near future (or any future), because AGM are capped with the mill capacity and its a looong leadtime to get another one up and running, let alone the amount of product they would need to process to achieve that sort of share price....

nice to dream though


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## doogie_goes_off (28 September 2007)

Does anyone think that capital raising/placement at this price is bad for the company?they now have another 30 mill in the bank which should help speed up production.


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## shag (28 September 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Does anyone think that capital raising/placement at this price is bad for the company?they now have another 30 mill in the bank which should help speed up production.




mr market certainly took a dim view of it anyway, hopefully short term
why not offer us a go at reduced price...


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## Sultan of Swing (28 September 2007)

Doesn't this dilute the value of the shares we already hold? The mine is only worth so much, and then to have another 42 million shares to share it around....... or am I barking up the wrong tree with that line of thinking?

Then again, I spose we have another $30 million cash ......


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## nioka (28 September 2007)

shag said:


> mr market certainly took a dim view of it anyway, hopefully short term
> why not offer us a go at reduced price...




Every time a company issues shares to an institution at a reduced price to the market and do not give the same offer to existing shareholders I get annoyed and I let the company know it. I suggest you do the same and send them an Email to that end. 
 However I'm not surprised they had another issue as they did say recently they would need more capital. We can only hope they are putting it to good use and that they are getting close to production.


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## shag (28 September 2007)

nioka said:


> Every time a company issues shares to an institution at a reduced price to the market and do not give the same offer to existing shareholders I get annoyed and I let the company know it. I suggest you do the same and send them an Email to that end.
> However I'm not surprised they had another issue as they did say recently they would need more capital. We can only hope they are putting it to good use and that they are getting close to production.




yes too true, on both accounts. should complain, act, not talk. its the worst part of share market, feathering yr own nest and then insider trading.
cheers shag.


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## nioka (3 October 2007)

Jinchuan has exercised it's right to convert the subordinated loan into shares at 80c per share. The group now holds a 10.4% equity holding in AGM. This is a premium of 9.5c per share on the current AGM price. Shows confidence as we get closer to production.


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## doogie_goes_off (8 October 2007)

I'm a little confused have AGM just raised another $32M at 80c in placements? Or is this an earlier transaction being formalised?


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## nioka (8 October 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> I'm a little confused have AGM just raised another $32M at 80c in placements? Or is this an earlier transaction being formalised?




I looked at it as the formal announcement of the one which was announced as a company announcement. That announcement said that it would complete the financing.


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## nioka (13 October 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> I'm a little confused have AGM just raised another $32M at 80c in placements? Or is this an earlier transaction being formalised?




I e-mailed AGM asking for clarification but they did not answer. Poor shareholder relations. Checking them out for a broker recomendation today I find one broker with a strong sell and one with a strong buy. One must be wrong, which one?. Maybe one gets their mail answered and the other doesn't. 
It is time the company came out with an update on progress.


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## jet328 (13 October 2007)

Third quarterly should be out in the next week or two, so fingers crossed everything is moving along nicely(hard to judge by the pics on their website).

Cheers


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## shag (16 October 2007)

jet328 said:


> Third quarterly should be out in the next week or two, so fingers crossed everything is moving along nicely(hard to judge by the pics on their website).
> 
> Cheers



by the way the sp is dropping with nickel looking on the march in the 30's, i suspect the report may already be out to a select few.
hope not, but can u imagine how hard it is keeping talk off a big site anywhere let alone tassie etc.

hopefully just a few margin loaners running for cover tho.
cheers


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## Sean K (9 November 2007)

Watching this for the next move. Looks to be more likely to be up on this chart, but reliant on commod prices of course which have been flying. New Geothermal license might add some interest.


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## nioka (9 November 2007)

It is interesting to note that today's announcement regarding the geothermal energy licence has on the bottom of the page "Nothing but nickel". Have they found hot rock with their nickel prospect drilling or is that an omen and they won't find hot rocks. I'm still waiting for this one to come good, have about 30% of my portfolio tied up with it now having bought more yesterday. Production must be getting close to start up. We could do with an update from the company.


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## shag (10 November 2007)

nioka said:


> It is interesting to note that today's announcement regarding the geothermal energy licence has on the bottom of the page "Nothing but nickel". Have they found hot rock with their nickel prospect drilling or is that an omen and they won't find hot rocks. I'm still waiting for this one to come good, have about 30% of my portfolio tied up with it now having bought more yesterday. Production must be getting close to start up. We could do with an update from the company.




there was a sort of update on commsec link, where md said all aim and focus was for 1st quarter next year start up. mainly went on about link with chinese partners and likely future links on new ventures for agm.
i'm also waiting for it to come right, but at least my other dog-paladin has come out of the kennel.
thanks for graph kennas too.


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## eMark (10 November 2007)

shag said:


> but at least my other dog-paladin has come out of the kennel.




Amen to that!

See my recent Paladin post to explain my positive overtones in this post.

Cheers 

eMark


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## michael_selway (10 November 2007)

shag said:


> there was a sort of update on commsec link, where md said all aim and focus was for 1st quarter next year start up. mainly went on about link with chinese partners and likely future links on new ventures for agm.
> i'm also waiting for it to come right, but at least my other dog-paladin has come out of the kennel.
> thanks for graph kennas too.





Hi PDN was a dog?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -0.2 -0.4 8.0 10.4 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 *

thx

MS


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## nioka (14 November 2007)

The presentation to the China Mining Conference by AGM released on today's company announcements shows the plant construction well advanced. They announce production to commrnce EARLY first quatrer2008. Previously quoted as just early 2008. The presentation is well worth looking at. Maybe someone could post the link, I couldn't work out how to show it. This should be good for the SP and I can see good gains ahead.


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## nioka (13 December 2007)

I'm surprised AGM has gone for a month without a post. A long way from the regular postings from Chicken and Ghosta. What happened to them?. AGM continues progress towards production commencing first quarter 08. I would expect the SP to have a gradual increase from here on in.I have made them my major holding now. Providing any major setbacks are not encounted those holding throughout the construction period should be well rewarded. DYOR.


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## alicemaude (16 December 2007)

I have held this share for a fair while now and of late the chart gives the apperance of an uptrend, which you would expect with production just around the corner. My biggest problum is that I watch my shares too intentely and loose heart just when they come good and sell to soon.  This time I am determined to hold hold hold, as the number of times I have sold to early brings me to tears.


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## Sean K (17 December 2007)

ZFX takeover for AGM. Wonder if the market will expect another offer from someone else. Not sure who that could be? Might be interesting to lok at other Ni juniors who receive flow of support at the idea of further acquisitions...



> 17 December 2007
> 
> Zinifex Offer for Allegiance Mining
> 
> ...


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## nioka (17 December 2007)

The offer for AGM is well below the price I would expect AGM to be worth when they are producing. I personally would expect the SP to be in excess of $2 following successful start up of production. This is a opportunistic offer well below the potential value. Compare the history of SMY and the SP rise following successful production. I hope the directors hold out against such a low offer.


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## prawn_86 (17 December 2007)

nioka,

its true that a rerating usually occurs after production, but generally there are teething problems at first.

I can think of at least one co where the SP has gone down once production started, and i couldnt see any reason why...


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## grace (17 December 2007)

alicemaude said:


> I have held this share for a fair while now and of late the chart gives the apperance of an uptrend, which you would expect with production just around the corner. My biggest problum is that I watch my shares too intentely and loose heart just when they come good and sell to soon.  This time I am determined to hold hold hold, as the number of times I have sold to early brings me to tears.





Just as well you held onto this one!  I've been waiting too, but I think the Zinifex offer is way undervalued as well.


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## shag (17 December 2007)

I think if they or someone upped it to near 1.20-its historical max then she'd be all go as i'm a bit sick of the slow ride up and fast decline. but i guess thats a big premium over 70 odd cents.
so much upside in company from resource potenmtial to alternative projects but i guess many companies out there like such.
cheers shag.


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## nioka (17 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> nioka,
> 
> its true that a rerating usually occurs after production, but generally there are teething problems at first.
> 
> I can think of at least one co where the SP has gone down once production started, and i couldnt see any reason why...




SMY had plenty of production problems but still managed an increase of over 600% for me. I still expect AGM to appreciate considerably and well past the offer price in the very near future. I have mailed AGM asking that they dismiss the offer.


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## nioka (17 December 2007)

The directors of allegience unaminously have the view that shareholders should take no action regarding the Zinifex takeover offer until the board has fully considered the offer. They say the offer is unsolicited and opportunistic.


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## hoppielimp (17 December 2007)

Hi Guys,

Absolutely...AGM is a Co. with a cash cost around $3.  Producing 8500 Tonnes of Ni per Annum, even at USD 11/lb clears $8/lb.

I think Zinifex are secretly dreaming.

Possibly AGM is worth anywhere between $1.45 to $2.16 depending on what P/E's are used.

Zinifex, you aren't getting my shares at those levels.


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## prawn_86 (17 December 2007)

Hoppie, 

Is AGM actually producing yet though?

There is a big difference between actual annd forecast EPS


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## hoppielimp (17 December 2007)

Hi Prawn,

True, AGM are not producing yet, but I'm doin my numbers on what I think, not what AGM advise.  USD 11/lb is significantly below current metals price and I have also assumed $8/lb clearance and full tax on this, which will not be the case as they will have many costs to off-set, so I am being very conservative.

However yes, I agree, Actual is not Forecasted, however I guess you have to start believing at somepoint, otherwise even for an established company you can still apply Actual is not Forecasted, then I guess you would just put it in the bank, and hope they don't have a massive sub-prime exposure and go belly up.

//Edit AGM are only months away from producing, so unless something going horribly horribly wrong, I would think that producing is a foregone conclusion...I could be wrong, but....


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## jonojpsg (18 December 2007)

Let's not get too caught up in conservatism here - AGM have most of the construction complete and mining/stockpiling of ore is well under way.  There really is nothing to stop (discounting acts of God, earthquakes, terrorist attacks, etc.) the nickel being produced as of early next year.  Whether there are minor delays because of bad weather (always a possibility on the West Coast of Tassie ) makes little difference.

Now the nickel price is obviously a large factor, but as has been pointed out, even at $11/lb AGM will be rolling in it.  

I agree that $1.50 minimum would (should) be required to get the board interested.


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## Sultan of Swing (21 December 2007)

I went for a drive around Zeehan a few weeks ago and the place is buzzing. It's the first time in a lotta years. There are also other mining projects happening down the West Coast too. They're looking for a bunch of miners and related trades over the next year or two.

The reason I went down? To go check out the house I bought. It settled this week. Rents are going up quite a bit as there's now a large housoing shortage. Like always happens, I should have bought a couple of houses a year ago as they've almost doubled in price the past year but there's still quite a bit of upside IMO. 

We also tried to go for a drive past the mine but only got to the entrance. I told them I owned the mine (well, a wee little bit of it  but apparently I still had to make an appointment. 

Oh well, it was a fun day. 

And yes, I agree there's a lot of upside with the AGM SP too.


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## mexican (21 December 2007)

Min of one year production first, in that time more Ni discoveries in tenement should occur adding more value and mine life.
If anything ZFX have made alot of media coverage with take over offer ($1 LOL), some investors who did not know AGM before know who AGM is now


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## nioka (22 December 2007)

AGM was once one of the most talked about stocks on ASF and HC. The construction phase, because it took time, resulted in a lot less company news and announcements than there had been when the prospecting and drilling announcements were anticipated. Lack of news meant lack of interest. It was a good time to accumulate. Zinifex did at least draw attention to the stock which was undervaluated by the market. This is proven by the Zinifex offer and the following price increase in the SP. 
In the past I have compared the SP of AGM to that of SMY. They have followed similar paths with a time distance of about 18 months. SMY have had a price 5 to 8 times that of AGM. Given the market cap and the difference in the number of shares in each it would be fair to say that there is a good argument for the SP of AGM to be around the $3 mark once production starts. An examination of the facts should result in this statement not being accused of being just a ramp.
 AGM directors claim to have found a new nickel province which further drilling will show, drilling which they will concentrate on after the commissioning of the plant for production. Further finds should add to the value of the company.


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## andy. (25 December 2007)

Prawn,

AGM presented at the recent London Mines and Money Investment Forum, and they said they were confident of a March 2008 startup.

I took the opportunity to speak to Tony at the stand, and he is confident they will meet the revised date, so until he says otherwise, I'm going along with that.

With mining stocks there's always a delay, and we have already had one here, (it's par for the course), and there may well be another, as you rightly say, so if this causes a concern then the mining sector probably doesn't match your risk profile.

AGM have done very well for me, and I expect them to continue to do so in the future, regardless of any small delays.


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## banska bystrica (1 January 2008)

AGM will probably get cleaned up at around $1.20-$1.25. ZFX or whoever ends up with it will have paid top dollar on what AGM have identified so far. The big question is whether this is a new nickel province. Only future drilling will answer the question.
AGM management have got caught with their pants down and those shareholders who were prepared to hold for 5 years will miss out big time. The fact is AGM was severly undervalued and the crunch came with the delay in production. The share price never really recovered. The share price should have been around the $1 mark and then this opportunistic bid would never have been made. $1.40 would have been the starting bid rather than the ending bid and as I say, I'm not so sure anyone will pay $1.40 in this market. Having said all that, I have made a sizeable play on AGM at 98c after the bid came. There's no downside from 98c and a quick 25-30% seems a formality.


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## nioka (4 January 2008)

The directors have posted a message to shareholders advising them to do nopthing in regards to the Zinifex offer. They once again referred to the offer as opportunistic and that Allegience is at the beginning of a very exciting journey. Work continues at the Avebury mine with production scheduled to commence in the first quarter 08 and start delivering it's potential to shareholders.
  I guess we can expect another offer from Zinifex. I won't be interested in anything under $2. Maybe if they offer that and their SP keeps falling a change from AGM to ZFX could be considered. Even then I think I would lose out in the long run.


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## banska bystrica (4 January 2008)

A purchase at $1.04 is money for jam. I have just taken another slab of AGM now averaging $1.01. $1.20 would be the minimum and personally I can't see too many shareholders even accepting $1.20. $1.40 will probably get the instos and small shareholders are really at the mercy of the bigger players. It's a crying shame because long term I believe we would see much much higher prices. Alas, management were slow off the mark with resource upgrades and therefore were a sitting duck for ZFX. AGM had to concentrate on getting production started so were caught between a rock and a hard place. 
I am not interested in a scrip offer. $1.40 will probably get me as I have sold some solid blue chips to take this fairly big punt. I wonder why many existing AGM holders are doing just that. Holding instead of buying more? There is no downside to the current price. I have spoken to a few shareholders and they are not buying more, just sitting. It's got me beaten. If all shareholders were in there buying more, the price would firm up anyway ensuring the next bid was a reasonable one and not opportunistic. If the takeover falls through, AGM will drop in price short term but shareholders will still be better off in the long run by holding through 2008, 2009 and beyond.


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## mexican (4 January 2008)

For me I am more than happy to sit on AGM, as I jumped on at .37c.
Remember it is a Ni provience it is just a matter of how much is there (Melba flats and so on)
It also is a top grade Ni depsoit, one of the best in the world. Not your normal every day pig Ni.
Could jump on again, but more than happy with my outlay and profit.
Good luck and it is a NO from me ZFX.
I am here for the ride with AGM.


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## banska bystrica (4 January 2008)

mexican said:


> Could jump on again, but more than happy with my outlay and profit.




It's that very attitude that has me bemused. You don't want MORE profit? You could buy at $1.04 and your average would be 70c. Seems like a smart play to me but perhaps most around here are hobby investors and not in the market to maximize their wealth. Each to his own.


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## banska bystrica (4 January 2008)

It's also that "I'm happy" attitude that will see AGM knocked off for far less than it's real worth.


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## finnsk (4 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> It's that very attitude that has me bemused. You don't want MORE profit? You could buy at $1.04 and your average would be 70c. Seems like a smart play to me but perhaps most around here are hobby investors and not in the market to maximize their wealth. Each to his own.



Why would that be smart??? 
Where would the extra profit come from, if the share price do not go up further.


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## banska bystrica (4 January 2008)

finnsk,
The holders who are very bullish should have no doubts that the price will only go up from here, or are they actually thinking deep down that $1 is about it?
I back my opinion with $$$, not words. I believe $1.20 is the minimum in a takeover and higher long term if no takeover. That's why I have sold blue chips to load up on AGM.


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## mexican (4 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> It's that very attitude that has me bemused. You don't want MORE profit? You could buy at $1.04 and your average would be 70c. Seems like a smart play to me but perhaps most around here are hobby investors and not in the market to maximize their wealth. Each to his own.




Already doing well on other stocks, so like I said I am happy. Your a hard man!
Go in for the kill Banksa!


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## mexican (5 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> finnsk,
> 
> I back my opinion with $$$, not words.
> 
> ...


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## banska bystrica (5 January 2008)

mexican said:


> So do I, with 2 investment properties in NW Tasmania as well.
> So pretty bullish on this hobby!




This is a stock forum and our debate revolves around AGM on this thread, not investment properties in Tasmania. I am not interested in how many investment properties you have in NW Tasmania. People come to these forums to listen to opinions on companies trading on the ASX.

My point is that all these so called champions/supporters of AGM do not seem prepared to buy them even at these current cheap prices. To me it seems that all the hype about AGM being taken over too cheaply at ZFX's $1.00 play
is just that. Hype. I firmly believe we will not see less than $1.40 by year end if the takeover fails. If the takeover succeeds, it will be at a higher price than $1.00. That is the crux of my argument. An investment in AGM now is money for jam yet about five shareholders I have spoken to are not prepared to buy more shares. 
Why do you think the price of AGM has held up when the rest of the market has been caned since the ZFX offer was made? You've got Merryl Lynch, JP Morgan, HSBC and a couple of other heavyweights buying most of the stock. They have done their sums yet the majority of the smaller punters sit there in front of the screen in a trance afraid to buy more.


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## mexican (5 January 2008)

Did you think maybe some investors wallets are not as heavy as yours and are content with the money they have invested with AGM.
We all agree here AGM are a good buy and should go further.
As you say, each to their own!


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## Nyden (5 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> Why do you think the price of AGM has held up when the rest of the market has been caned since the ZFX offer was made? You've got Merryl Lynch, JP Morgan, HSBC and a couple of other heavyweights buying most of the stock. They have done their sums yet the majority of the smaller punters sit there in front of the screen in a trance afraid to buy more.





What a *silly* argument. They're not buying up most of the stock. The stock is staying put because there's a blooming offer of $1 sitting there! As long as there's an offer on the table, the ASX can fall 500 pts & AGM will still be at $1+, gosh.... I'd put every penny I have into AGM if it fell below $1 whilst the offer is there, but that is just not going to happen. 

Of course there isn't a mad-rush to buy in, if the ZFX offer is withdrawn the price will plummet. A trader stands to make 10%-30% on the *possibility* of an increased offer, whilst if the offer is withdrawn they're almost guaranteed to *lose* 30%.

Why should people risk their money like that? Just because you're so convinced? Because you've bought in at these prices, so should everyone else?

Sorry, but your _word-tone_ p has come off sounding very arrogant.


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## banska bystrica (5 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> They're not buying up most of the stock.




They are actually. Ask your full service broker who has been buying the last month. Big players are buying off small shareholders. The downside is less than 30% if ZFX walk away (which they will not do) and the long term upside is greater than 50%. Seems like a good buy at these prices.


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## Nyden (5 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> They are actually. Ask your full service broker who has been buying the last month. Big players are buying off small shareholders. The downside is less than 30% if ZFX walk away (which they will not do) and the long term upside is greater than 50%. Seems like a good buy at these prices.




I'm sure a few companies & funds are buying up little pieces - but to say they're buying _most of the stock_ is inaccurate (or rather, misleading). I don't see any announcements of substantial holdings.

Yes, *long term* upside. You can say that about any spec/non producing stock. XYZ will be worth $X in Y years. That may be the case providing everything goes to plan, but it is not a sure fire 100% thing.

Once again, you don't know that they wont walk away? If AGM's board keeps saying no, even if ZFX up the offer to $1.20-1.30, what - you think ZFX will just keep up'ing the offer? It's in their best interest not to overpay.


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## rustyheela (5 January 2008)

As i see it $1.00 will act as a support until ZFX either up their bid or another player comes on to the scene. what we really want is another player to make a bid and cause some "price tension" thus the price will be pushed up, like wot happened to consmin.


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## prawn_86 (5 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> They are actually. Ask your full service broker who has been buying the last month. Big players are buying off small shareholders. The downside is less than 30% if ZFX walk away (which they will not do) and the long term upside is greater than 50%. Seems like a good buy at these prices.




BB,

Once again you seem to be getting a bit carried away 

If this is such a good long term stock then please provide solid evidence as to why, especially if you are posting price targets, or why the short term downside is less than 30% etc. Also do not state things as a 'buy' as this is against the ASIC rules which apply to this, and all other stock forums.

Also, can you provide any actual evidence of who is buying? If it is big players shouldnt there be change of holding notices?

Here at ASF we try to rely on facts, rather than rumours and opinions.

Thanks

Prawn


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## banska bystrica (5 January 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Also, can you provide any actual evidence of who is buying? If it is big players shouldnt there be change of holding notices?




Not necessarily. JP Morgan and other big institutional brokers might not necessarily be buying for one client. I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll have a look first thing Monday at the last two weeks trading and give you the actual figures. Names of brokers and how many they've bought/sold. As you know, these days we are not allowed to see who is doing the buying and selling. All trades used to have a broker code next to the transaction. Now we have to wait three days to see who was buying. This rule change came as a result of the big instos getting annoyed that smaller players were seeing what they were up to straight away and jumping in front of them on the bid.


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## oldblue (5 January 2008)

It wouldn't be unusual for a broker to be advising its clients that a certain situation is attractive, and be doing a lot of business as a result.
Doesn't necessarily prove anything.


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## banska bystrica (10 January 2008)

That announcement today of a drill hole 0.7m wide with 10% nickel is what one would expect from a $7M company rather than a $700M company.
Pure desperation showing from AGM knowing that unless another bidder joins in, the company will be gobbled up at $1.15-$1.20. Finito!
ZFX will end up with a bargain. They can process more ore at their own plant down the road and bump up nickel concentrate production to 15,000 tonnes per annum without too many dramas.
AGM have got caught with their pants down and todays announcement shows it. Laughable really.


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## nioka (10 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> That announcement today of a drill hole 0.7m wide with 10% nickel is what one would expect from a $7M company rather than a $700M company.
> Pure desperation showing from AGM knowing that unless another bidder joins in, the company will be gobbled up at $1.15-$1.20. Finito!
> ZFX will end up with a bargain. They can process more ore at their own plant down the road and bump up nickel concentrate production to 15,000 tonnes per annum without too many dramas.
> AGM have got caught with their pants down and todays announcement shows it. Laughable really.



 Don't agree with you. I suggest you are a ZFX holder looking for a bargain. The results announced are only in line with what the directors of AGM have been saying for some time. They have discovered a great nickel province which will make AGM a great company.  AGM have another bidder. It is the current loyal shareholders. I think their bid will win and ZFX will have to look for another target to get them out of their current problem of running out of resource. I hope the directors hold out through this awkward period until production commences.


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## banska bystrica (10 January 2008)

I'm actually an AGM holder. Bought very recently. See prior posts. I've never held ZFX.
Just you wait and see. You will be forced to sell AGM at between $1.15 and $1.20 after ZFX get 90%. It's called compulsory acquisition. You will have no choice in the end.
ZFX are getting a bargain. I agree.


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## banska bystrica (10 January 2008)

The only way AGM shareholders (me included) will get more than $1.20 will be if another company steps up to the plate.
In the absence of a higher bid from another company, what AGM shareholders in their right mind would NOT sell at $1.15-$1.20 knowing that the share price will collapse if ZFX walk away? In this market, AGM are straight back to 60c without ZFX. Take the increased offer that will no doubt be offered and put the cash into something else. Move on.


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## Ashsaege (11 January 2008)

If there were no offers or takeover bids from ZFX or anyone else, AGM's SP would probably be below 60cents as the market is dropping. 55cents, or possibly lower, is probably more around the mark. If i was in for the long term with AGM, i probably wouldn't like ZFX offer.... but im not!


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## nioka (11 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> The only way AGM shareholders (me included) will get more than $1.20 will be if another company steps up to the plate.
> In the absence of a higher bid from another company, what AGM shareholders in their right mind would NOT sell at $1.15-$1.20 knowing that the share price will collapse if ZFX walk away? In this market, AGM are straight back to 60c without ZFX. Take the increased offer that will no doubt be offered and put the cash into something else. Move on.



 Why would you think that. AGM has just proved more nickel. They are getting closer to production every day. I would expect the ZFX bid would have made the company hurry it's move to commence production, which could be announced any day now.  The real answer is the chinese interests. I doubt they want cash, they want nickel. With AGM they have nickel. I suggest the directors of AGM want to develop AGM to it's full potential before selling too. I can't see ZFX getting AGM. I hope they don't I think AGM has great gains possible in the VERY NEAR future.


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## treefrog (11 January 2008)

*prices to decline in 2008 but to remain high*ABARE dec 07 report
World nickel prices in 2007 are estimated to average around US$37 400 a tonne, 54
per cent higher than in 2006. The increase in the average price refl ects high prices in
the fi rst half of the year (above US$40 000 a tonne)
when world stocks were low and consumption was
increasing rapidly. Consumption has since declined,
while production has remained steady, resulting in
rising stocks and declining prices.
Prices are forecast to average around US$27 500
a tonne in 2008. The world supply–demand balance
is expected to remain tight early in the year, providing
support for prices above US$30 000 a tonne.
However, from the June quarter, nickel production is
forecast to increase and to exceed consumption as a
number of new mines are commissioned. As a result,
nickel prices are forecast to fall to around US$25 000
a tonne in the September quarter.


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## nioka (11 January 2008)

AGM have received a letter of support from Jinchuan who state that the offer from ZFX will not be accepted.


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## Ted (12 January 2008)

As far as I am concerned there is nothing in the ZFX offer that is attractive to long term holders. ZFX obviously see excellent long term potential for AGM and the area that it holds but are only prepared to pay a SP that I believe AGM will achieve when it starts production shortly. ZFX are thumbing their nose at long term holders and using scare tactics about AGM's ability to fund future developement and the liquidity of AGM shares if it is only partially successful in its bit. (My understanding of lack of liquidity is that you can have extreme swings in either direction). And what if they walk away, yes with the current market and N  price volality there probably will be a fall back in the SP but long term I believe there are good prospects for the SP.

With the amount of shares Jinchuan and directors hold ZFX will not achieve its 90% for a compulsory acquisition, which could leave us with either a 6.5 or 6.6 (Bidder Statement) situation. Perhaps partial involvement by ZFX would be more beneficial to long term holders? 

I will not be selling.


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## treefrog (12 January 2008)

assuming AGM is as good long term as posters here say, I cannot understand why there is not a much deeper queue of suitors


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## rustyheela (12 January 2008)

well i think someone knows something or people / instos are having a punt coz the vol on friday was double the daily average.interesting to see wot happens monday


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## banska bystrica (12 January 2008)

Ted said:


> I will not be selling.





Unfortunately you will have no choice. The bid will probably get upped to $1.15/$1.20, Jinchuan will accept and so will the instos. ZFX will get 90% quicker than flash gordon in this market. It will be a compulsory acquisition situation once ZFX get 90%.
The market is efficient and the market is prepared to pay only a small 5% premium to the $1.00. That tells you what the big instos think.


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## nioka (12 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> assuming AGM is as good long term as posters here say, I cannot understand why there is not a much deeper queue of suitors



What do you want? My detailed quote shows less than 1 mill sellers under $1.10 but 8 mill buys from $1.05. Turn over Friday could be traders getting out or realising the deal will not go ahead. The SP was up 1c on the day when the market was down quite a bit. What it shows to me is that buyers aren't appreciating the true value but the current holders are, in the main, true believers.


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## treefrog (12 January 2008)

nioka said:


> What do you want? My detailed quote shows less than 1 mill sellers under $1.10 but 8 mill buys from $1.05. Turn over Friday could be traders getting out or realising the deal will not go ahead. The SP was up 1c on the day when the market was down quite a bit. What it shows to me is that buyers aren't appreciating the true value but the current holders are, in the main, true believers.




the only company pursuing AGM is ZFX - ie they are the only one that wants to take it over

suppose a second co tosses in a bid for $3 - trust you will be sticking to your principles and not selling


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## nioka (12 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> suppose a second co tosses in a bid for $3 - trust you will be sticking to your principles and not selling




Now you are talking a price that is acceptable. When it gets to that it will be a fair price and I will stick to my principles and take the offer. If you compare AGM to SMY, as I have done for some time now, with all the fundamentals taken into account, $3 is a fair price. That is why I am definite in saying the ZFX offer is opportunistic ( I posted that definition before AGM used it, in fact I used it in a fax to them and I was pleased to see them repeat what I had said.)


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## whitta27 (13 January 2008)

banksa - do you post on HC???
Your analysis and thoughts seem similar to another person - 
I don't disagree with your thoughts nor dispute u posting on both forums ..
Just wondering.


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## banska bystrica (13 January 2008)

whitta27 said:


> banksa - do you post on HC???
> Your analysis and thoughts seem similar to another person -
> I don't disagree with your thoughts nor dispute u posting on both forums ..
> Just wondering.




No. Only this forum. I am sure there are plenty of AGM shareholders who have similar views on the takeover to me. I have spoken to six people I know who have shares in AGM and five said they would accept a bit more than $1. The other person has already sold at $1.04 on market.


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## nioka (14 January 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> I have spoken to six people I know who have shares in AGM and five said they would accept a bit more than $1. The other person has already sold at $1.04 on market.



 I have not spoken to ANYONE who is taking less than $1.20. and most of the ones I know DON"T want to sell at all before production starts.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## hoppielimp (14 January 2008)

Hello all,

I know AGM had engaged an external firm to asses what their larger shareholders thoughts were on the takeover bid and what the shareholders were considering doing, if anything at all.

It would leave me to believe, that the 'DO NOTHING' is honestly a belief by management that their bigger shareholders are not currently thinking about selling to ZFX at these current levels, a new bid would ofcourse, need to be re-assesed.


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## porkpie324 (14 January 2008)

The last time I traded AGM I sold in late September for .79c. I have traded them many times before. If I were holding when the ZFX offer came in I would have sold then. AGM is  high risk, the mine is not yet proven, there's to many shares on issue and I think there's better oppotunities with other nickel miners with proven assets, no dept and not to many shares on issue around. If it was'nt for the ZFX offer AGM would be trading around 50c.porkpie


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## nioka (14 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> The last time I traded AGM I sold in late September for .79c. I have traded them many times before. If I were holding when the ZFX offer came in I would have sold then. AGM is  high risk, the mine is not yet proven, there's to many shares on issue and I think there's better oppotunities with other nickel miners with proven assets, no dept and not to many shares on issue around. If it was'nt for the ZFX offer AGM would be trading around 50c.porkpie



 If that is what you think of AGM could you tell me why the SP of SMY is where it is. I suggest you have not examined the fundamentals of both to any great extent. Or are you just downramping AGM.


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## porkpie324 (14 January 2008)

First, I do not downramp companies shares.
Second, have a look at the charts of SMY, IGO WSA &MCR, they have fallen nowhere near as far as ZFX and as I said if it was'nt for the offer AGM would be trading around 50c, I also think AGM does have potential but not at the present SP .
Third, I give what my opinion of a company is I see them,I don't think the market genarally will be influenced by what I say. I have been trading for many years and quite succesfully too.
  If you want to hold AGM at these prices then good luck, but if the ZFX offer is withdrawn then you watch them go down.porkpie


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## nioka (14 January 2008)

Still a lot of turnover for AGM with little change. It would be interesting to know how much is due to traders giving up on a better offer or getting in still hoping for a better offer or both at the same time. It may be long term holders finally giving in or locking in a profit by selling a percentage. Regardless of the reason the price is holding above the $1 offer. While this is going on the company is probably happy to stall for time and get the plant operational. Is there anyone local who can go to the local watering hole and get some "pub talk".?


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## ithatheekret (18 January 2008)

Anyone still holding Allegiance ?

It looks well supported and they have got an exceptional ore ,.

Fundamentals are worth much to throw about yet , even they'd be eachway bets . Is something built into this price . volumes suggest something , blowed if I know what though , must be good though ..........  , best go look into the ore grades etc. . Its a nickel play right ? Looks like it sells money trees by the chart .


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## ithatheekret (18 January 2008)

Does anyone have the forward forecast from the Geos ?

The ZFX price is suffering monsterously , and from what I have available to me at present I can only get a basic forward pricing of 1.16-1.23

Is there something special about this miner apart from the takeover ?

I have zip on it . Only just finished my PNA looksies .


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## d_crome (19 January 2008)

Wow - why do I feel like somebody has just walked in during the end of "Return of the Jedi" and asked - "Ok, so who's that bloke with the helmet and the cape?  Is he a good guy?  This might be worth watching..."

In a simplistic term - go read the previous 1000 or so posts and you'll understand what AGM is.


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## ithatheekret (19 January 2008)

Well I have read many , but I haven't found anything in regards to initial decline development . If the decline has commenced .... have they taken drill samples to measure the life of the mine .

You see I have looked through quite a few reports and have not seen a trace of other metals in any form mentioned . This is unheard of to me , there's usually platinum or palladium , gold , silver or copper to be found anywhere that nickel shows up . The gradings I've seen don't match any of the major players although they're in the West mostly . This is Tassie though I know , but the results to date have me perplexed , I've never heard of a nickel find without other traces in it .

I can remember CRA starting this project off and thought they walked away from it due to the findings of the grades , the only thing I see as a positive is the vast size of the low grade deposit . So far I have a count of 3.83Mt with an average grade of 1.42% nickel , on current prices that should give the company around $28-$31M per year . That's where I got the $1.16 - $1.23 a share from , but noted the ZFX offer was at a miserable $1.00 , whilst it is obviously predatory , what have they spotted that is unknown to me , was the real query .


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## d_crome (19 January 2008)

I'd suggest firstly to listen to some of the Boardroom Radio interviews with the AGM board members - THR is very thorough in these discussions.

Basically, as AGM stands it is a very high quality (potentially highest on the planet) Ni mine called Avebury - it's solely a Ni operation.  That said however, other pockets have been discovered within their lot, which indicates they have only struck the tip of the ice burg as far as it goes.  Their continued exploration in the tentatment they recently acquired that was ZFX's) has also indicated other trace metals as you've stated.

What makes AGM interesting is the cost/lb of Ni is extremely low and yet the quality is quite high.  This makes them quite profitable regardless of PON.  Jinchan (the large Chinese Stainless Steel manufacturer) has realized this source of Ni and signed a 100% offtake agreement - guaranteeing a buyer for every ounce of Ni that AGM mine.  They also hold an approximate 10% stake of the company.

So why the ZFX takeover?  Why the SP drop from the mid year high of 1.18 with NO takeover bid - AGM dropped the ball in regards to commissioning their milling facility onsite - it was due 5 months ago and is as yet, still in construction.  This slip hurt AGM massively - the PON collapse effectively crushed AGM till they began producing a refined product.

Enter ZFX - they see a bargain in AGM.  Guaranteed buyer, mine is approximately 1 to 2 months away and continued drilling exploration indicates that they are sitting on considerably more Ni that initially thought.  This is why most think the ZFX bid is extremely low - most believe this stock to be a $1.50 - $2.00 when in production, hence it all boils down to a holders or traders mentality. 

Myself - I'm more than willing to wait the next few months out and let AGM raise to their true market value rather than accept an extremely low ball initial bid.


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## ithatheekret (19 January 2008)

Ah ..... now I get it , so that's why the Chinese wanted in .

Well thanks for that . No worries , btw , I entered for the mob , smelt D) something and ZFX won't get the vote . $1.50 -$2.00 , yeah , I can see it if the mines life gets extended , which I'm expecting by what I've read on the matter , my numbers come in about $2.80 , but I want to see drill results ASAP on the first cutting areas . The better the results the better the valuation , but I'd sell the news and buy the dips , cough , cough , cough .


PS.. I was taken back by the lack of outlay needed to get underway , I think they've got away on the cheap , I hadn't really discounted that until noting it  .



*THE ABOVE IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE*


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## d_crome (20 January 2008)

ithatheekret - your valuation seems to mirror those of other brokers reviews (which can be located on the Allegiance Web site).

Interestingly - below is an excerpt from the ABN-AMRO broker summary issued on the announcement of the ZFX bid:

_"ZFX has stated its offer is high in relation to recent transactions. At A$1.00 AGM is
valued at A$770m. The most recent nickel transaction is Xstrata’s bid for Jubilee,
pricing JBM at A$2.9bn. Last year JBM produced 8,633t of Ni in concentrate,
admittedly down from around 12,000tpa previously. We expect AGM to produce
8,500tpa Ni in conc, compared with 12,000tpa for JBM, a relative value of A$2.0bn or
A$2.66 per AGM share. In terms of resources, JBM has reported 216,000t of
contained Ni in ’high grade’, compared with the 131,000t in AGM’s Avebury resource,
a relative value of A$2.28 per AGM share. That doesn’t make AGM look expensive in
our view; comparatively - back of the envelope - it looks cheap."_


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## nioka (20 January 2008)

With Allegiance shareholders holding out  on the ZFX offer, those that have accepted will recieve only 90c per share. The opportunistic sub value offer was also a little sneaky in the two tier price offer. I doubt that Zinifex counted on getting the support of the directors and that they hoped to collect a fair sized holding at 90c. As it stands now they will get just .01% of AGM. They have now made the offer unconditional and will pay the 90c within 5 days to those who were foolish enough to accept the offer.
 I guess ZFX will make another move shortly although they seem to be having trouble with their own SP at the moment and will have a lot of unhappy shareholders. I hope Allegience are working overtime to bring the plant into production early.


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## d_crome (20 January 2008)

Nioka - I've got my fingers crossed as well - hopefully the mill is due to start production any day now such that the AGM management can focus on what they do best - exploration.  With a continuous income generated via their Avebury operation and Jinchan, AGM's future looks very bright indeed.

To be honest - I'm actually glad the ZFX hostile bid was made, it not only shook the AGM management tree (who have already let a previous deadline slip, drastically impacting the SP at the time) in to ensuring they're on the ball, but it also puts AGM back on the map as far as investors are concerned, generating interest in the company, and ultimately, generating interest in the SP.

As to how long can AGM remain an independent operation is still a very large unknown.  Jubilee has already been taken over, AGM now on the same path - ZFX could potentially be a target given their recent SP collapse.  That said, I'm quite certain that ZFX will bid to $1.20 - a bid which will draw maybe 20% of the share volume, mainly day traders and insto's, but the core of AGM holders are more than knowledgeable in regards to what they hold a stake in.  My gut says ZFX will indeed "Nickle Off" as the AGM board has stated - but I don't think this will be the end of the takeover - a bigger consortium will potentially walk in and up the ante.

Even if they don't, and ZFX fail in their bid - I feel the AGM SP will continue to rise as the management continue to explore and express to the market the continued growth in value of their project site.

Again - my 2 cents - by no means am I a financial ad visor and by no means should you take my word on anything.  DYOR!


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## ithatheekret (20 January 2008)

d_chrome would you accept the $1.20 if offered ?

Personally I wouldn't and by no means am I trying to push persuasion here , but I would like to see this project managed by those who have actually realised the value , no matter how slack the development team is . The backlog in testing has been a pain for many miners , so onsite analysis is now considered a must for many projects . So I see a few of star boxes ticked already .

I don't care if the mill isn't running until next year frankly , that's when I see the true resumption in the nickel price . The share price would suffer , but I would be happy to pick them up at a lower price , evil I know , but that's greed for you ..........

Thank you for your assistance here too , I know it's painful filling in the gaps for someone who should be upto date , but I was trying to cheat a little on my research time , as forex has taken up quite a lot of it .


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## d_crome (20 January 2008)

Not a problem mate.

I wouldn't sell for anything short of $2 - granted I've been a holder for 18 months (and really should have gotten in 3 years ago when an old friend put me onto them) - however I feel $1.20 is really far too low for everything that AGM has going for it.

And I can completely agree - the AGM team who have worked hard on this product for the past 10 years, only to see somebody attempt to pip them at the finish line and take all their rewards, on a professional level that would be the one thing I'd be fighting tooth and nail to ensure didn't happen.

I can see your point though - ultimately we're all here to make a $ - I'm considering selling a portion of my holdings now and re-entering should the ZFX deal fall to the wayside, however I'll have to do my research before I make that decision.


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## DionM (22 January 2008)

So is AGMs 'support' of $1 not really a real support level, but only due to the ZFX offer?  If ZFX pulls their offer, would AGM sink like everything else has in recent times?


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## nioka (22 January 2008)

DionM said:


> So is AGMs 'support' of $1 not really a real support level, but only due to the ZFX offer?  If ZFX pulls their offer, would AGM sink like everything else has in recent times?



 The Zinifex offer can only be calculated at 90c at this stage. The fundamentals have not changed for AGM. It does not matter to me if the immediate price drops as I have no intention of selling rather if it drops I will buy more. AGM is getting very close to producing and will have one of the lowest costs of production for nickel and will make money when a lot of others are going down. AGM is a better haven for funds because of this than Zinifex. Had I been a ZFX holder I would already have swapped for AGM before this. AGM should not need to borrow again and will soon have a solid income stream.
 Had AGM not been worth more than $1 the directors would have agreed to the offer.


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## treefrog (22 January 2008)

nioka said:


> The Zinifex offer can only be calculated at 90c at this stage. The fundamentals have not changed for AGM. It does not matter to me if the immediate price drops as I have no intention of selling rather if it drops I will buy more. AGM is getting very close to producing and will have one of the lowest costs of production for nickel and will make money when a lot of others are going down. AGM is a better haven for funds because of this than Zinifex. Had I been a ZFX holder I would already have swapped for AGM before this. AGM should not need to borrow again and will soon have a solid income stream.
> Had AGM not been worth more than $1 the directors would have agreed to the offer.




ZFX must be rubbing their hands over current market - you will see more and more rats deserting AGM and taking the 90c ZFX offers for no other reason than it is the best deal they will get this year.
As my bean counter rammed home to me many years ago - you do not pay cash for future "potential" when buying a business - goodwill yes but potential no
how can you possibly say the fundamentals have not changed - the market is in freefall because fundamentals have changed and continue to change hour by hour - perhaps you mean the published Co. fundamentals
understandable that LT holders want to put blinkers on in the current market


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## porkpie324 (22 January 2008)

If I were to still hold AGM I would be pretty nervous right now, if ZFX decide not to renew thier offer AGM shares will suffer the same as other nickel stocks. But on the other hand if ZFX extends the offer or infact offers more then that alone speaks volumes for the whole nickel sector.porkpie


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## nioka (22 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> ZFX must be rubbing their hands over current market - you will see more and more rats deserting AGM and taking the 90c ZFX offers for no other reason than it is the best deal they will get this year.
> As my bean counter rammed home to me many years ago - you do not pay cash for future "potential" when buying a business - goodwill yes but potential no
> how can you possibly say the fundamentals have not changed - the market is in freefall because fundamentals have changed and continue to change hour by hour - perhaps you mean the published Co. fundamentals
> understandable that LT holders want to put blinkers on in the current market



ZFX holders are not rubbing their hands together they are wringing their hands in dismay at the falling ZFX SP. 
My bean counter told me the same message as yours but he was wrong. I'll buy potential any day providing I can satisfy myself it can be reached. That is why I have been a holder of AGM for some time with my first purchase at 35c. I saw the potential, read my early posts. I saw the potential of SMY at 37c and I have watched AGM follow a similar path. This weeks market is just a hiccup. (unless you are using borrowed money of course.)
Long term holders don't wear blinkers, they just look well ahead.


----------



## DionM (22 January 2008)

I will admit that I am tempted to bail out of AGM at market rates.

As both a ZFX and AGM holder I have had both positive and negative out of this announcement.  As I hold more of ZFX than AGM it has been very 1 sided.

As someone wrote, the fundamentals of AGM have not changed.  Which means that we could suffer a drop should ZFX change their mind for the worse and AGM could drop like the rest of the market.  I am tempted to sell now and rebuy if the price drops - lord knows I have missed that opportunity so many times before.


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## treefrog (22 January 2008)

nioka said:


> ZFX holders are not rubbing their hands together they are wringing their hands in dismay at the falling ZFX SP.
> My bean counter told me the same message as yours but he was wrong. I'll buy potential any day providing I can satisfy myself it can be reached. That is why I have been a holder of AGM for some time with my first purchase at 35c. I saw the potential, read my early posts. I saw the potential of SMY at 37c and I have watched AGM follow a similar path. This weeks market is just a hiccup. (unless you are using borrowed money of course.)
> Long term holders don't wear blinkers, they just look well ahead.




nioka - you have a penchant for misquoting - I did not say ZFX holders I said and meant ZFX. ZFX is the company, those making the move on AGM


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## nioka (22 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> nioka - you have a penchant for misquoting - I did not say ZFX holders I said and meant ZFX. ZFX is the company, those making the move on AGM



 Realised what you said , I was comparing the "holders" to the "company". The company may be happy with ZFX SP too.


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## mexican (22 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> ZFX must be rubbing their hands over current market - you will see more and more rats deserting AGM and taking the 90c ZFX offers for no other reason than it is the best deal they will get this year.
> As my bean counter rammed home to me many years ago - you do not pay cash for future "potential" when buying a business - goodwill yes but potential no
> how can you possibly say the fundamentals have not changed - the market is in freefall because fundamentals have changed and continue to change hour by hour - perhaps you mean the published Co. fundamentals
> understandable that LT holders want to put blinkers on in the current market




Everything is in Black and White with AGM. The only thing that might have potential is Melba Flats deposit being as big as Voisey and Norslik.
I think you would agree ZFX find AGM more than a "potential".


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## nikkothescorpio (22 January 2008)

I was stopped out of my 20,000 AGM's today - and am not that worried about it - though will follow to see what happens.

With the way the current market is playing out who knows if ZFX will hang in with their bid - and well as if it needed any reinforcement - CASH IS KING. 

So the option of re-entering AGM or something else with more perceived upside is not a bad break to catch.

AGM's a good company for sure but if ZFX pulls the plug or starts wavering look for a mini- RIO type retracement.


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## DionM (23 January 2008)

Well we all know ZFX made their offer now $1 flat, regardless of what they get.

I see there are still big at-market orders sitting on the ASX.

After doing some thinking, I've got a strong feeling there might just be another offer out there. 

1. Why did ZFX suddenly change their offer to a flat $1?  Why not go that the first time?  Perhaps they are worried about a competing offer?

2. Jinchaun are still quite coy.  

3. If you read behind the lines with the recent statement by AGM (and as backed-up by ZFXs letter) AGM have not given any valuations ... perhaps they are wanting to force out this other bidder?

4. ZFX are quite forceful in their latest letter and have been very keen to acquire as much as possible as fast as possible - to try and beat a competing offer?

It's all very strange.  I'll probably re-evaluate my position in early Feb - leaving me enough time if necessary to bail for the ZFX offer if things don't continue to look rosy.


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## nioka (23 January 2008)

DionM said:


> Well we all know ZFX made their offer now $1 flat, regardless of what they get.
> AGM have not given any valuations ... perhaps they are wanting to force out this other bidder?.




Maybe AGM, particularly the directors don't want to consider selling at all or at least until the plant is producing and more nickel is proven. That is when the REAL VALUE will be determined. That is also my opinion.


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## mexican (23 January 2008)

nioka said:


> Maybe AGM, particularly the directors don't want to consider selling at all or at least until the plant is producing and more nickel is proven. That is when the REAL VALUE will be determined. That is also my opinion.




I agree with you all the way on AGM Nioka.
You don't have to be a genius to work out the SP would be lower now with the current market but by the end of the 2nd quarter  I am confident AGM will be more than $1.
ZFX I am sure know this as well, hence the opportunistic offer. Very smart business move though.


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## mexican (24 January 2008)

Counter punch today for ZFX?
Have not seen any info on Viking for a while, it was a surprise for me today.
Has anyone heard of holders letting go for the ZFX offer?


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## roland (24 January 2008)

mexican said:


> Counter punch today for ZFX?
> Have not seen any info on Viking for a while, it was a surprise for me today.
> Has anyone heard of holders letting go for the ZFX offer?




I don't know if I would call it a "Counter Punch", but certainly a counter response. Zinifex, I am sure, know the value of AGM otherwise they wouldn't have made the takeover bid. Geology is often known, but unproven. I think it's a bit risky for AGM making known the drilling results to the market and Zinifex - especially if the AGM board wants to keep ownership.

Deflated nickel prices are not helping the whole situation, extra resources in a product that has declining demand is not going to help the SP in the short term. It may help with a better offer, or even a third party becoming interested in making a counter bid. These 2 scenerios wouldn't help the AGM board maintaining control.

The obvious intention of the AGM board is to promote holder confidence to reject "low valued" offers. All in all, good news for AGM share holders - not necessarily good for AGM wanting to hold onto their company in the longer term.

Just my  I hold ZFX and not AGM - but I am hoping all ASF'ers to do well no matter what happens.

It's such an interesting tassle - very entertaining!


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## jet328 (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> I think it's a bit risky for AGM making known the drilling results to the market and Zinifex - especially if the AGM board wants to keep ownership.
> 
> extra resources in a product that has declining demand is not going to help the SP in the short term




Please tell us you are not serious about this post?

The demand for nickel is declining? What the? Why would your company be buying? 

I can understand being biased and one-eyed, but there is no logical whatsover in your comments


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## mexican (25 January 2008)

roland said:


> I don't know if I would call it a "Counter Punch", but certainly a counter response. Zinifex, I am sure, know the value of AGM otherwise they wouldn't have made the takeover bid. Geology is often known, but unproven. I think it's a bit risky for AGM making known the drilling results to the market and Zinifex - especially if the AGM board wants to keep ownership.
> 
> Deflated nickel prices are not helping the whole situation, extra resources in a product that has declining demand is not going to help the SP in the short term. It may help with a better offer, or even a third party becoming interested in making a counter bid. These 2 scenerios wouldn't help the AGM board maintaining control.
> 
> ...




Yes it will be a very entertaining in the next 1-2 months, I just hope AGM holds out, as it only has 6-8weeks until production. 
I do find ZFX saying Ni prices are volatile, rising exchange rate and slow down in international economy very amusing!
I say "Then don't buy it".
Remember Ni was at $6000 a tonne in 2001 and average $15000 a tonne in 2004, people tend to forget where the price was a few years back.
Mining in all fields has increased in cost over the years but the Ni price still outways the cost of minig by a long way.
Ni will still be in demand in years to come, there are alot of major projects around the world that need stainless (300 series). Ni should average $25-$28k this year.
ZFX had a good come back today, I thought if they keep this low for a while some one might tap them on the shoulder holding some cash!
If there is a third party in the back ground, Xstrata thats my guess! Now that would make it more interesting but I very much doubt it.


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## nioka (25 January 2008)

roland said:


> The obvious intention of the AGM board is to promote holder confidence to reject "low valued" offers. All in all, good news for AGM share holders - not necessarily good for AGM wanting to hold onto their company in the longer term.
> 
> Just my  I hold ZFX and not AGM - but I am hoping all ASF'ers to do well no matter what happens.!



 ZFX holders have a different slant on this matter than genuine AGM holders. They don't GET THE MESSAGE that WE DON"T WANT TO SELL AT ALL. We want to have the returns due to us for faithfully waiting for the benefits of LONG TERM PRODUCTION from what probably is the best nickel deposit around. (then we will take over ZFX--- if it is worth the price)


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## mexican (25 January 2008)

nioka said:


> ZFX holders have a different slant on this matter than genuine AGM holders. They don't GET THE MESSAGE that WE DON"T WANT TO SELL AT ALL. We want to have the returns due to us for faithfully waiting for the benefits of LONG TERM PRODUCTION from what probably is the best nickel deposit around. (then we will take over ZFX--- if it is worth the price)




 ZFX is trying to cause AGM holders to have doubt about AGM's ability of being a top Ni miner.
Funding, volatile Ni prices and so on.
AGM's latest rejection postcard really states the obvious thoughts of ZFX's opinion of Avebury and thats why we DO NOT WANT TO SELL!
We only have 6-8 weeks  to go until production, pretty much in the home straight just this hurdle to get over!
Its not like we have to wait 1-2 years for production, then maybe the offer would be attractive to some.


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## Warren Buffet II (25 January 2008)

mexican said:


> ZFX is trying to cause AGM holders to have doubt about AGM's ability of being a top Ni miner.
> Funding, volatile Ni prices and so on.
> AGM's latest rejection postcard really states the obvious thoughts of ZFX's opinion of Avebury and thats why we DO NOT WANT TO SELL!
> We only have 6-8 weeks  to go until production, pretty much in the home straight just this hurdle to get over!
> Its not like we have to wait 1-2 years for production, then maybe the offer would be attractive to some.




ZFX is more than happy to wait, it is funny that the AGM board just keep showing all the private information and making ZFX valuation of AGM easier and easier 

I bet ZFX is waiting for production to start and if AGM fails for one reason or another, it will be time to cook the AGM meat.

WBII


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## alicemaude (29 January 2008)

Hard to see AGM failing though. There is an increase in the findings and the chance of more to come. I had to sell to pay for some thing else (OXR) but think the ZFX offer is far too low.


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## andy. (3 February 2008)

Alice,

I agree, hard to see AGM failing this close to production after all their challenges being overcome over the years, transforming a greenfield site in the middle of Tasmaia into a modern mine, ready to commence production.

Some of the tactics being used by ZFX and it's supporters are quite disgraceful though, I guess they justify their actions by claiming it's all for the greed of money.

I have been suspended from HotCopper for critising them for only banning AGM holders from the AGM thread!

If there is an Australian equivalent of the UK FSA (Financial Services Authority), can someone please post a link to it, as I wish to email them.


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## HOT STOCKS (4 February 2008)

Andy,

Here is that information you requested regarding ASIC.

Ask us a question
If you are emailing us, please include your name and phone number in case we need to ask you more details about your question. This is not essential if you prefer not to identify yourself.

If you are ringing us, have your company details including ACN, account details and any correspondence ready before you start your call. Have a pen and paper handy in case you need to write something down while talking with us.

If you need to talk with us and have difficulty speaking or understanding English, you can call the Telephone Interpreter Service on 131 450 for the cost of a local call. They will call ASIC for you.

The Telephone Interpreter Service operates nationally and provides a 24 hour a day, 7 days a week service for over 100 languages.

Email: infoline@asic.gov.au

Phone 1300 300 630

From overseas, phone +613 5177 3777

Telephone Interpreter Service 131 450

Link:

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/ASIC.NSF/byHeadline/Contacting us


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## banska bystrica (4 February 2008)

andy. said:


> I have been suspended from HotCopper for critising them for only banning AGM holders from the AGM thread!




Take your bat and ball and go home Andy. What a sook! Screaming to ASIC will be a wasted exercise. Your type is the reason I don't bother with HC.
This forum is about stocks, not byeching about another stock forum.
ASIC have got better things to do than worry about AGM holders whinging about what was said on a public forum.


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## nioka (4 February 2008)

Don't take too much notice of ZFX holders Andy. They seem to think they are one above the country hicks that hold AGM. It is only their frustration with the AGM holders not accepting their undervalued offer and the declining ZFX share price that makes them say the things they say. I can't imagine anyone being banned at hot copper though. They seem not to have the same standards as ASF.


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## Bushman (6 February 2008)

Check out the 393m bid at $1! What an odd thing to do. Anyone want to guess at who has raised the bid? It would have to be ZFX. 

Interesting manouvre.


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## roland (6 February 2008)

Bushman said:


> Check out the 393m bid at $1! What an odd thing to do. Anyone want to guess at who has raised the bid? It would have to be ZFX.
> 
> Interesting manouvre.




I think it would be more likely to to be an AGM director. I was watching the bids today and in my opinion it would certainly be advantageous for the AGM directors to keep the SP above the offer from Zinifex. Which AGM shareholder is going to sell out at $1.00 if the share price is above that???

In the meantime, Zinifex are slowly getting full disclosure on resource value - with references.

Personally I think Zinifex put in an interesting offer to the AGM shareholders to stir up some Director feedback to reveal more than they wanted to. The further disclosure from AGM is revealing that the resource is probably worth more than the $1.00 bid offered from Zinifex - but at least Zinifex got the AGM directors to do the work of correctly valueing the company and the longer term prospects.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zinifex were to increase the offer after the expiry of the current offer.

Just my  and, yes, I am a Zinifex holder.

Good luck to all AGM & ZFX holders


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## vishalt (7 February 2008)

Anyone going to buy into this stock if ZFX fails? Looks good with all the Chinese interest and the mine nicely aboot to start production .


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## nioka (7 February 2008)

roland said:


> I think it would be more likely to to be an AGM director. I was watching the bids today and in my opinion it would certainly be advantageous for the AGM directors to keep the SP above the offer from Zinifex. Which AGM shareholder is going to sell out at $1.00 if the share price is above that???
> 
> In the meantime, Zinifex are slowly getting full disclosure on resource value - with references.
> 
> ...



 I'd like to think there was an AGM director with $393m. If there was I think they would have invested it in AGM a long time agnly a week or two till production starts then we will see what AGM is worth.


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## roland (7 February 2008)

nioka said:


> I'd like to think there was an AGM director with $393m. If there was I think they would have invested it in AGM a long time agnly a week or two till production starts then we will see what AGM is worth.




Nioka, interesting comment - I wasn't suggesting that any one director was buying "all" the shares, please don't read something into the comment that is not there.


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## Logique (7 February 2008)

The 1 February Zinifex letter "It's money in the bank" was very strongly worded, and I think will sway many undecided AGM holders. The letter talks about the certainty of cash in an uncertain market, with the offer expiring 8th February and so on.

The crunch clause is where ZFX say that there is a strong likelihood that AGM's share price will fall "*once the Offer closes*".   So AGM holders will have to be prepared for such an eventuality (that is unless ZFX or the nebulous "third parties" come good with a higher offer), and be confident enough and patient enough for the value of AGM to re-assert itself in the share price.

While this may sound like it's coming from a ZFX perspective, I'm actually on AGM's side here, and not accepting the (current) offer. But let's be fair, there will be some holders for whom the ZFX offer will suit their circumstances, and thats their choice.

Also I think ZFX has done a favour to AGM and all holders, by invigorating AGM's mananagement team, and prompting increased shareholder focus and information flow. And by giving all of us a better idea of the future potential of AGM.  

So grateful thanks to Zinifex for that.  And lets talk $1.60 or so ok?


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## nioka (7 February 2008)

roland said:


> Nioka, interesting comment - I wasn't suggesting that any one director was buying "all" the shares, please don't read something into the comment that is not there.



 I thought your contribution started off with "I think it would more likely to be an AGM director" in relation to the $383m. If directors were buying I'm sure they would be happy to pay $1.05.


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## banska bystrica (7 February 2008)

Why weren't the Director's buying a majority stake when the price was 5c?
Then they would not be in this situation having to fend off a predator.


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## nioka (7 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> Why weren't the Director's buying a majority stake when the price was 5c?
> Then they would not be in this situation having to fend off a predator.



 Good question and another question is "why wasn't I". My answer is "I didn't know about them until they were 33c". However I got in then. ( refer early AGM posts). Of course they had proved nothing then. They have now and they are CLOSE TO PRODUCTION.
P.S. You haven't replied offering your credentials?


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## banska bystrica (7 February 2008)

nioka said:


> I didn't know about them until they were 33c.





You were a bit slow off the mark nioka. Every cabbie in Brisvegas was tipping them in 2005 at around the 15c mark.
Even then, the Directors could have shored up their positions with either their own cash or cashed up staunch friends.


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## nioka (7 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> You were a bit slow off the mark nioka. Every cabbie in Brisvegas was tipping them in 2005 at around the 15c mark.
> Even then, the Directors could have shored up their positions with either their own cash or cashed up staunch friends.



That's me, slow and steady. Maybe that is what the directors did do to the extent that they could and that is why they have such a loyal following. It is not all about money. Remember you can't take it with you. 
 ZFX is desperate. I have been doing my sums in case I have to buy ZFX shares to keep my interest in AGM's nickel. ZFX show potential profit for the half year to Dec as $1270m to $1320m but only $250m to $275m is from continuing production. A worry would you agree.


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## DionM (8 February 2008)

Well an interesting day.  I sold out of AGM today.  Took a fair profit.  I hesitated all day wondering what to do.  

For those interested, my reasons (in order of importance to me):

1 (most important). A philopshical shift of my investments to blue chip dividend payers.  I want to get into them more - something I've been wanting to do for some time now - the recent sharemarket volatility has reinforced that fact.  AGM has served it's purpose as a bit of a spec play.  I sold out of SBM today as well, for similar reasons (though that was based on some T/A, and having been burnt before not selling out at/near a high).

2. I am not overly impressed with AGMs handling of this event, especially as ZFXs offer close draws near.  Today's announcement of "we have had others in our data room" didn't wash well with me - this implies that the company is indeed up for sale?

3. I didn't want to get caught in another "buy the rumour, sell the fact" selldown next week.  Has happened in the past to me on semi-spec stocks, so I have learnt my lesson - some profit is better than none.

I still believe AGM is a good company, but I'm not sure how sustainable current prices are.  I don't profess to be an expert however, so it came down to a bit of a $$$ decision and where my $$$ could be better invested.  I want a bit more stability in my shares (and some income via dividends!), and AGMs stability of late seems to be drawn from ZFXs offer more than anything else.

If AGM drops back to around my original buy in price, I will buy again, no questions, for I could see value at those prices.


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## nioka (8 February 2008)

Best of luck with whatever you chose next. You will not go broke taking a profit even if you leave a little for the next person. I have faith that the AGM board are doing whatever is necessary in the best interests of the company. The SP possibly will fall a little if the ZFX offer is withdrawn and there is no other offer but I'm sure it will recover quickly and rise considerably as production commences. By today's turnover you are not on your own but the price has held despite the circumstances.


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## DionM (8 February 2008)

Nioka,

It was difficult, the old "hang on for the CGT discount, hang on for the higher offer" was in the back of my head.  Greed - I am slowly learning to control it!

I have no knowledge as to whether they will go higher or not - apart from speculation.  It probably will, given the prices being paid right up until close today ... but it could also go down.  I do suspect another offer is in the wings, but who knows when that will materialise.


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## rustyheela (8 February 2008)

Posted on Egoli.com.au

Allegiance data room open for inspection
8/02/2008 By: John Winters

Allegiance Mining NL (AGM) advised that it had an open door policy with respect to approaches from all third parties who offer demonstrable value to shareholders. The company said its data room had been accessed this week, and due diligence continues to be carried out.  
Advertisement 
Allegiance said it could give no assurance that any relevant third party will submit a proposal, which is capable of being put forward to shareholders. 

“However, particularly in light of the uncertainty which Zinifex is allowing to subsist as to whether it proposes to allow its offer to close today, Allegiance considers the status of third party interest to be information material to Allegiance's shareholders,” the company said. 

Allegiance advised it would update the market in the course of next week about the status of third party interest. 

Zinifex has offered $1 cash for each Allegiance share, valuing the target at about $775 million. 

At 1440 AEDT, Allegiance was up 0.5c to $1.055, while Zinifex was up 9c to $9.34. 


things my start getting interesting next week and give the stock price a giddyup!!


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## mexican (10 February 2008)

Lion Selection AGM's second largest share holder sold to ZFX Friday afternoon. Nine msn has the full information.
ZFX has extended its offer until 22nd of Feb.


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## banska bystrica (11 February 2008)

Financial Review front page article gives AGM directors a big spray. They have punted and lost 8 million dollars of the money Merryl Lynch gave them via a placement.
The Chairman's comment was " We are entitled to a bit of a flutter".
Amazing comment from a company trying to defend a hostile takeover.
Credibility is shot. Instos will dump big time to ZFX now I would imagine.


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## nioka (11 February 2008)

It would be interesting to know if there is any relationship between the sale of 1,000,000 Agm shares for approx $1.04c per share by LST on 6th Feb and ZFX. Also the connection, if any, between the "ceasing to be a substantial holder" in LST by Credit Suisse Holdings Issued at the same time. Is it odd that LST sold a considerable holding in AGM for $1.04 share one day but accepts $1 from ZFX the next?. There has been plenty of turnover of AGM shares at + $1.04 for anyone wanting to quit to get that price without accepting the below value offer from ZFX. Conspiracy theory ?. I'd like to know what backroom deals are performed on this one.
At least ZFX have given AGM another two weeks to get into production. That takes us two thirds into the "first quarter" production promise. I can see no reason to sell yet and every reason not to sell. My price is $2.00 and I'm holding out for it.


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## nioka (11 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> Financial Review front page article gives AGM directors a big spray. They have punted and lost 8 million dollars of the money Merryl Lynch gave them via a placement.
> The Chairman's comment was " We are entitled to a bit of a flutter".
> Amazing comment from a company trying to defend a hostile takeover.
> Credibility is shot. Instos will dump big time to ZFX now I would imagine.



 Lost $8.000,000 . They would have to be joking. They can make money on any deal they made with AGM. Merryl Lynch are speaking for ZFX in a hostile takeover situation in the same way you have done throughout this saga. For someone who suggested I should not post on the ZFX thread, I see you are still happy to post on this one, not that I object to that. I'm still waiting patiently for you to state your credentials to comment, remember you asked for and were given mine.


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## Warren Buffet II (11 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Lost $8.000,000 . They would have to be joking. They can make money on any deal they made with AGM. Merryl Lynch are speaking for ZFX in a hostile takeover situation in the same way you have done throughout this saga. For someone who suggested I should not post on the ZFX thread, I see you are still happy to post on this one, not that I object to that. I'm still waiting patiently for you to state your credentials to comment, remember you asked for and were given mine.




You like to try to hide the reality on every corner, read the newspaper for yourself and get informed.

The Chairman of AGM is the one that said that they are entitled to some flair, well 7 or 8 million loss is what I called a flair or maybe a large flair 

WBII


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## Warren Buffet II (11 February 2008)

I thought AGM was a mining company but it looks that is a share trading one with some doubtful traders included.

I wonder how much was lost in ICP (iCash) alone:

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...GM&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=T


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## stargazer (11 February 2008)

Hi

AGM has accepted offer.  ASX website.  We should see some reaction, and see how the market takes it.

cheers
SG


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## roland (11 February 2008)

stargazer said:


> Hi
> 
> AGM has accepted offer.  ASX website.  We should see some reaction, and see how the market takes it.
> 
> ...




Where did you see that stargazer? I had a look around and couldn't see anything other than the Lion Selection announcement.


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## stargazer (11 February 2008)

Check ASX announcements.  I had a email alert sent through.  It is marked as price sensitive.

Go to ASX website then announcements.

Cheers
SG


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## nioka (11 February 2008)

stargazer said:


> Hi
> 
> AGM has accepted offer.  ASX website.  We should see some reaction, and see how the market takes it.
> 
> ...



 Whoa there. Are you sure you read things right. Looks like a repeat of the earlier announcement and NOT the directors of AGM accepting ???????


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## stargazer (11 February 2008)

OOps my apologies.  It was released today 11/2 it inidcates Lion Selection accepted the offer, and goes on to say Offer was extended by two weeks to Allegiance.,,,Won't do that again till i read it three times..

Sorry just read the headline and took it that it had been done.  Misread it. 

SG


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## rustaman (11 February 2008)

Nothing new there, imho.

Confirmation  of Lion news.

Thanks anyway.

Hold the line longterm AGMers.

Lulu..


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## d_crome (11 February 2008)

Just to clarify this thread - AGM HAVE NOT ACCEPTED ZFX's OFFER.

Thats blatantly misleading.

The statement was AGM's largest Insto HOLDER had accepted.

Now - I've always liked AGM for it's potential - I certainly believe they are sitting on a HUGE resource.  I however have, since the departure of the CEO, felt that the remaining AGM board have been ill-suited to the task of running this operation.

The mine was behind schedule - though the holders were never told until the ASX announcement - the constantly poor finish to their ASX announcements to this day still have me baffled.  The cherry on top for me was the boards rather poor handling of last weeks finalization of the initial ZFX offer - that friday just wreaked of a board who really didn't have control of their financial future.

The AGM board - consisting of arguably some of the finest Engineers and Geologist are just that - Engineers and Geologists.  They are seriously lacking a smart, business oriented member to take the helm here and keep the scientists away from the ASX announcements - this end of the business should be left to ruthless and slick business folk only.  I couldn't care in the slightest if these people don't understand a mine from a mochachino - the point is AGM needs a mouth piece to fend off predators and to keep AGM in the investors public eye.

To this day - AGM have failed to do this - they continue to flounder and today's statements to the AFR in regards to loss of funds by market investments just goes to show my point.  

AGM still to me presents an awesome investment - however I have a horrible feeling that if the AGM board continue as is, ZFX won't have to do much more to prove to the general investing public that they have the financial credentials (note NOT GEOLOGIC/ENGINEERING credentials) to manage AGM better than the current board.

Regardless of the bungles of the AGM board - the value for me in AGM is IN THE GROUND - no amount of bungling can change that.  AGM - if allowed to maintain control, I'm sure they'll make the province a great mine - however WHEN and HOW MUCH it'll cost to do so are the questions that still remain.

That said - and the way it looks - AGM will lose to the ZFX challenge - I want to post an idea and hear some responses.

How much upside potential will AGM add to ZFX??  In say 6 months, given stable market conditions, how would a ZFX with AGM as theirs be worth??  Would the Zinc interest of ZFX negate the Ni upside presented from AGM?

The idea running through my head is that AGM will most likely make me cash out - so what would I do with these funds??  Would ZFX be a good place to go next?

Please keep the responses positive from both sides of this take over - I've already abandoned HC due to the high level of BS there - ASF has always been a high level discussion forum and I hope that it remains.

Cheers in advance.


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## nioka (11 February 2008)

stargazer said:


> OOps my apologies.  It was released today 11/2 it inidcates Lion Selection accepted the offer, and goes on to say Offer was extended by two weeks to Allegiance.,,,Won't do that again till i read it three times..
> 
> Sorry just read the headline and took it that it had been done.  Misread it.
> 
> SG



 Apology accepted. All you did was what ZFX intended you to do by placing their announcement on the AGM announcements, to lead you into thinking there had been a massive acceptance of their below value offer.


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## nioka (11 February 2008)

d_crome said:


> That said - and the way it looks - AGM will lose to the ZFX challenge - I want to post an idea and hear some responses.
> 
> How much upside potential will AGM add to ZFX??  In say 6 months, given stable market conditions, how would a ZFX with AGM as theirs be worth??  Would the Zinc interest of ZFX negate the Ni upside presented from AGM?
> 
> The idea running through my head is that AGM will most likely make me cash out - so what would I do with these funds??  Would ZFX be a good place to go next?



 I won't accept that AGM have lost the challenge. There is a lot more water to flow under the bridge yet.
 With regards to the value it will add to ZFX, that will be considerable and that is why I suggest the offer is undervalued. I keep referring to the value of SMY as a comparison and using that I place a value of at least $2 on AGM right now. There is room to add to that as ore reserves are proven. ZFX have mines running out in the near future and they need more producing mines and don't have the time or the patience to develop new ones. It takes years to get to the stage reached by AGM right now. Unless ZFX get a producing project up they are in trouble in my opinion as most of their other projects I can find have long lead up times to production. Sure they will benefit from AGM if they are successful but it will be at a cost to the AGM faithfulls. It is hard for me to put a value on ZFX and obviously the market has the same problem. A takeover of AGM will make it worth more but if it is priced too high now it may not be enough to make up the gap. DYOR and stay tuned for the fat lady to sing. I'll hold AGM rather than ZFX.


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## Warren Buffet II (11 February 2008)

Probably AGM is trying to make more money from share trading than from mining, I wonder who was the smarty in there that lost all that money.

http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx...ce=/_xmlfeeds/industry/metals_mining/feed.xml

WBII


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## Warren Buffet II (11 February 2008)

http://www.individual.com/story.php?story=77535544

Allegiance stung in $8m market punt
By James Chessell and Michael Vaughan 
Feb 10, 2008 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) -- 

Amid a takeover battle between Zinifex and Allegiance Mining, some questions have arisen about the board. Besides its nickel operations, the takeover target has been involved in loss-making share trades. The so-called "Black Tuesday" on the Australian sharemarket in January 2008 led to a $A7.9 million loss being posted, and dismissal of the employee. Brokerages such as Findlay & Company, Shaw Stockbroking and Patersons helped Benjamin Amzalak to trade in small stocks such as Eastern Star Gas, Hillgrove Resources and Icash Payment Services. In the quarterly report to 31 December 2007, the executive director, David Deitz, pointed to the transparent disclosure of investment losses.


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## Ashsaege (11 February 2008)

d_crome said:


> That said - and the way it looks - AGM will lose to the ZFX challenge - I want to post an idea and hear some responses.
> 
> How much upside potential will AGM add to ZFX??  In say 6 months, given stable market conditions, how would a ZFX with AGM as theirs be worth??  Would the Zinc interest of ZFX negate the Ni upside presented from AGM?
> 
> ...




Zfx has had a successful past record, and has a couple billion in cash. So I believe if they do take over AGM they will have enough resources to fully reach the potential of the Ni mine. Tho I couldnt say how much more ZFX would be worth say in 6 months time.


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## d_crome (11 February 2008)

Bottom line - would, or better yet, should AGM holders just dive their AGM sale into ZFX shares?

Or would there be better alternatives??

BHP sure looks cheap given they'll most likely not acquire RIO - that could be an easy 30% right there.


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## nioka (11 February 2008)

d_crome said:


> Bottom line - would, or better yet, should AGM holders just dive their AGM sale into ZFX shares?.



 No I have considered that and don't think I would get value. If ZFX valued AGM at $2 and offered a share exchange then it would probably be a fair proposition but I would not sell AGM  at $1 and buy ZFX.


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## 3MT (11 February 2008)

Seems like AGM office has nothing to do, just twiddling their thumbs waiting for ZFX to increase their offer, while workers watch their comsec screens all day. thats what happens when you watch your comsec screen all day. 

Zinifex is waiting for the day of the pending production delay announcement I think. That or the day some internal rogue trader blows the company's credit limite and cash reserves.


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## cuttlefish (14 February 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> http://www.individual.com/story.php?story=77535544
> 
> Allegiance stung in $8m market punt
> By James Chessell and Michael Vaughan
> ...




Well ZFX is playing on this today.  It absolutely astounds me that this sort of stupidity goes on today.  Was this person an officer/director of the company?  If not how the f*k could he have been trading stocks using the companies money without awareness by senior management/directors.   Its scary and ridiculous that after the Enrons and HIH's that this sort of absolute stupidity can go on even today and it does raise question marks unfortunately about the capacity of this board to maintain control over the company - internal audit processes should have visibility of trading levels that can create a $7 million exposure.  

The guy that did this shouldn't have just been sacked, he should have been charged - unless of course the board approved this stupidity in which case big question marks should be raised over the board imo.


The company should release a lot more information about whats gone on here and what they've done to prevent something like this happening again.

(I don't hold AGM did for a while a year ago, don't hold ZFX either, but have had an idle curiousity in the ZFX takeover).


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## DionM (14 February 2008)

If ZFXs $1 offer wasn't on the table, news of that $8m gambling loss would have sent the price plummeting, wouldn't you say?  Doesn't take much to spook the horses these days.

I continue to sit and wait.  Bugger that ZFX extended their offer, I coulda got back into AGM really cheaply this week I'm sure!


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## cuttlefish (14 February 2008)

Yeah I reckon you're right, it would have caused a nice slump in the price of a quality asset.  However before buying into a company that announced such a situation I would want a lot more detail as to the mechanics of how the situation occurred, just like ZFX is asking for.  I'm sure there's a lot of grandstanding in relation to this by ZFX, but you have to question the mentality of a board that would allow this sort of thing to go on (assuming they were aware of it, which, given it was mentioned in the quarterly, it can only be assumed that they were aware of it).


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## JTLP (15 February 2008)

LOL...AGM is the biggest joke.

Any other company that got caught floundering around 8 mil would have been punished severely.

You seriously have to wonder who is keeping the SP about the $1.00 mark.

PURELY SPECULATING but perhaps directors are getting "friends" to place bids to keep it above?

NB...I don't hold


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## nioka (18 February 2008)

UBS have taken a major shareholding in AGM by buying over 5% of AGM shares. This is either a blocking stake or are they buying for Zinifex and paying over the $1 that ZFX are supposed to be paying. Wheels within wheels????? I guess all will be revealed in the fullness of time. At least we are getting closer to the date for production to commence.


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## roland (19 February 2008)

Very nice presentation from AGM, makes me feel like I want to be part of the action..... I'll wait until the Zinifex stalemate disappears. Good luck to AGM holders


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## nioka (20 February 2008)

The Zinifex offer for AGM looks more like failing after MQG announced a majority shareholding. They appear to have been accumulating shares for some time and before the ZFX offer. Add to that the other major shareholders including the 10% for Jinchuan and there would appear to be a healthy blocking vote. I think now we can look forward to being shareholders when the production commences and will reap the reward for our patience.


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## rustyheela (22 February 2008)

Zinifex bid for Allegiance stumbles
 February 22, 2008 - 7:43PM


The Takeovers Panel has made a declaration of unacceptable circumstances and final orders regarding Zinifex Ltd's $745 million hostile takeover bid for nickel miner Allegiance Mining NL.

Last week, the Takeovers Panel ordered Zinifex to halt the processing of acceptances, amid claims shareholders were misled.

Zinifex's original offer was scheduled to close at 1900 AEDT on February 8 but half an hour later, Zinifex's announcement that it had extended the $1 per share bid by a fortnight hit the Australian stock exchange website.

The Takeover Panels said Zinifex's letter advising shareholders that the offer had been extended was collected by Australia Post at about 1700 AEDT on February 8.

Allegiance had claimed that some of its shareholders - including five per cent shareholder Lion Selection Group Ltd - had accepted the offer, wrongly believing it was about to close or had already closed.

"The panel has made orders to the effect that Allegiance shareholders who accepted the offer after 5.00pm (Melbourne time) but before 7.30pm on 8 February 2008 have a right to apply to Zinifex to cancel their acceptance of the offer," the panel said in a statement.

"The panel considered that any acquisition of control over voting shares in Allegiance should take, and in this case should have taken, place in an informed market and shareholders should have enough information to consider the merits of the extension of the offer and reasonable time to consider it.

"At 5.00pm on February 8, 2008, Zinifex should have informed Allegiance so that Allegiance could notify its shareholders."

On Wednesday, Zinifex again extended the offer, this time until 1900 AEDT on March 7.

As of Wednesday, Zinifex had a 5.44 per cent stake in its target, including the share acceptances that Zinifex may wind up cancelling.

Zinifex releases its half year results on Monday.

Shares in Allegiance closed steady at $1.07, while shares in Zinifex finished 69 cents higher, or 7.29 per cent, at $10.15.

 © 2008 AAP


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## nioka (25 February 2008)

We have been robbed. Looks like it is $1.10. Now to plan B for me. Definitely there is a better bet than ZFX.


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## Warren Buffet II (25 February 2008)

nioka said:


> The Zinifex offer for AGM looks more like failing after MQG announced a majority shareholding. They appear to have been accumulating shares for some time and before the ZFX offer. Add to that the other major shareholders including the 10% for Jinchuan and there would appear to be a healthy blocking vote. I think now we can look forward to being shareholders when the production commences and will reap the reward for our patience.




Just reading and quoting from one of the many previous entries from Nokia. Nokia can you please explain this in more detail  ? 

WBII


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## nioka (25 February 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Just reading and quoting from one of the many previous entries from Nokia. Nokia can you please explain this in more detail  ?
> 
> WBII



 As I have said on the ZFX thread, The directors probably had a sweetener to capitulate and maybe the commencement of production MAY be delayed. I still feel robbed and let down by the directors so I have sold out, last week half were converted to MCR ( in time for the dividend) and the other half sold this morning. I ADMIT DEFEAT. I've taken my profit and moved on. Nioka means "green hills" so I am looking for greener pastures on the other side. AGM is now in the past. (At least we got another 10c)


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## Logique (25 February 2008)

I feel a little let down by AGM directors (where is their "Reject" bravado now?), after their private discussion with ZFX they are now recommending acceptance of 1.10.  

Retail holders are now left with little choice but to accept 1.10, especially as we are told the offer will expire on 7 March. 

What I can't quite figure out is why (and who) of the placement of the Buy order for 500mill shares in the depth on the ASX?  Perhaps it's just ZFX covering all bases.


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## nioka (25 February 2008)

Logique said:


> What I can't quite figure out is why (and who) of the placement of the Buy order for 500mill shares in the depth on the ASX?  Perhaps it's just ZFX covering all bases.



It is a bit of a mystery, when I put in my sell order today ( when trading was suspended) there were two single 500,000,000 orders showing. This is more than the total number of shares. One disappeared shortly after. It is possibly someone gambling on obtaining a blocking holding of more than 10% so they can get ZFX to pay them a premium at the end of the game but it is most likely an agent for ZFX. To me the game is over.


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## Logique (25 February 2008)

There is a logistics consideration with the administration of this revised $1.10 offer. After today I make it only 9 business days until the 7 March offer closure mentioned by ZFX in the announcement today.  How are ZFX going to get a new offer document out to AGM holders in time for accepters to return it by 7 March? 

Come on ZFX, a little more realistic with the timing please. You are a good chance to get enough acceptances now. So ZFX, please extend the new $1.10 offer by two weeks until 21 March, so AGM holders don't have to sell their holdings on-market, incurring brokerage (and therefore not necessarily selling to ZFX).


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## Warren Buffet II (25 February 2008)

Logique said:


> There is a logistics consideration with the administration of this revised $1.10 offer. After today I make it only 9 business days until the 7 March offer closure mentioned by ZFX in the announcement today.  How are ZFX going to get a new offer document out to AGM holders in time for accepters to return it by 7 March?
> 
> Come on ZFX, a little more realistic with the timing please. You are a good chance to get enough acceptances now. So ZFX, please extend the new $1.10 offer by two weeks until 21 March, so AGM holders don't have to sell their holdings on-market, incurring brokerage (and therefore not necessarily selling to ZFX).




Easy, go to the register website, download the acceptance form, fill and fax it back. It will take you 10 minutes.

WBII


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## banska bystrica (25 February 2008)

$1.10 was top dollar. AGM shareholders should consider themselves very lucky indeed. Lots of blue sky in that price.


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## nioka (25 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> $1.10 was top dollar. AGM shareholders should consider themselves very lucky indeed. Lots of blue sky in that price.



 Could I ask what qualifications you have and what research you have done to come to that conclusion?


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## banska bystrica (25 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Could I ask what qualifications you have and what research you have done to come to that conclusion?




Nioka,
Projected annual production of approx 8500 tonnes of concentrate at current nickel prices would make a NPAT of approx 65 million or 8c per share. At $1.10, ZFX have paid a forward P/E of 13.75. That is very expensive. Forget about blue sky figures. The market doesn't pay much for blue sky.
AGM shareholders have done very well. 13.75 times net profit is TOP DOLLAR.
Be thankful and move on.


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## nioka (25 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> Nioka,
> Projected annual production of approx 8500 tonnes of concentrate at current nickel prices would make a NPAT of approx 65 million or 8c per share. At $1.10, ZFX have paid a forward P/E of 13.75. That is very expensive. Forget about blue sky figures. The market doesn't pay much for blue sky.
> AGM shareholders have done very well. 13.75 times net profit is TOP DOLLAR.
> Be thankful and move on.



Odd that you use 15000 tpa for ZFX thread but it is only 8500 tonnes on the AGM thread. Plenty of valuable blue sky there if you ask me.


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## banska bystrica (25 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Odd that you use 15000 tpa for ZFX thread but it is only 8500 tonnes on the AGM thread. Plenty of valuable blue sky there if you ask me.




Not odd at all. The fact is ZFX have a plant available in addition to the one AGM are building. AGM have only one plant with initial capacity to produce 8500 tonnes of concentrate.
Only ZFX have the capabilities to increase production almost immediately.
Take the blinkers off Nioka. You have received top dollar. 14 times earnings.


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## mexican (25 February 2008)

Well there you go. Done and dusted!
Got out last week ($1.05) after the "flutter" $8 mill loss on the market and no pics (plant) or talk of the start up in March things were not looking good. CEO's well what can you say about them!
I am sure Avebury will serve ZFX well.
AGM served me well, but would have been nice to see a full year of production!


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## michael_selway (25 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> Nioka,
> Projected annual production of approx 8500 tonnes of concentrate at current nickel prices would make a NPAT of approx 65 million or 8c per share. At $1.10, ZFX have paid a forward P/E of 13.75. That is very expensive. Forget about blue sky figures. The market doesn't pay much for blue sky.
> AGM shareholders have done very well. 13.75 times net profit is TOP DOLLAR.
> Be thankful and move on.




But interms of AGM after merging with ZFX, they could drive costs down so AGM-NPAT may be more?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -0.2 -0.3 10.7 8.3 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *


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## rustyheela (1 March 2008)

would anyone know wot % ZFX would hold as of now. 
also interested in opinions on wether people are  accepting or declining the offer. obviously if ZFX only hold 10- 15% its only a passive investment vehicle and at most a potential blocking stake for the future?


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## Ted (1 March 2008)

Last change notice issued by ZFX on friday states 12.23%. Some trades did go through at 1.10 of friday but a lot more went through at 1.105/1.110. 1 of 2 mil and 1 of 4 mil.

I asked the same question myself about selling, I get the impression a lot of people are still holding and waiting to see what will happen at the eleventh hour. I am thinking a lot of people are hoping for an extension on the acceptance date.

Someone mentioned on another forum that a 15mil sale went through and were speculating that it may be the Chinese or a third party looking to block ZFX. 

Not sure of the time frame for a change of interest notice.


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## trendster (20 March 2008)

Hi All,

Been a holder of AGM over the last 2 years now.
Recently sold half on market for above the Zinifex offer.

I'm very puzzled to know why anyone would be buying over $1.10 now that Zinifex hold over 60% of the company.

Any thoughts on this?

I'll be keeping the rest of my holding until the last days in case something else pops up, you never know what twists and turns are ahead.

cheero


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## d_crome (8 May 2008)

Chinese are out - ZFX have finally won.

RIP AGM - it was a good ride that many of us will remember........


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## Bushman (19 December 2008)

AGM Directors will go down as the 'commodity boom' heroes for you ex-AGMers who took the funds and ran. AGM shares price would be +80% down otherwise and look, OZL is placing Avebury on care and maintenance. 

Mmmmm ....bought at the top of the market. Ouch. 


Oz Minerals Ltd will close its flagship Avebury nickel mine in Tasmania with the loss of 189 jobs, due to the low price of the metal.

Chief executive Andrew Michelmore said the company had been forced to make a hard decision given the financial challenges facing the company.


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