# MAH - Macmahon Holdings



## RichKid (30 November 2005)

Mentioned this ealier in the breakouts thread, has pulled back now to restest resistance/support. A classic set up in my view is either here or approaching (ie the swing low retest on low volume). Once that support level around 61c is reestablished I expect the next stop to be the all time highs.

This stock is one of those smaller niche companies that have exposure to the resources boom imo so I like it long term.

Just my views, as shown in charts, not advice of any kind.


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## RichKid (30 November 2005)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*

I just picked this for the tipping comp, based on the powerful trend, lack of any strong overhead resistance and higher swings, finished a bit stronger than I expected so it wasn't the lowest entry price but if it starts the uptrend soon that wont matter at all.

I forgot to explain that the breakout bar was on the day a new contract win was announced (won contract over some big name ASX listed companies too so MAH is quality imo), then a lot of shares were dumped (ie sell on the fact), that has now subsided as the vol has decreased now and buy depth has stabilised again, as the equlibrium shifts we should be bullish again, I did expect a further fall to test that support line but the fact that it is holding above it suggest strength, early days yet but let's see.....any other holders or watchers out there?


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## RichKid (30 November 2005)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*

This is from the Telegraph tipster, I was doing a bit of research. 



> *Tipping Point*
> Sunday Telegraph (Sydney, Australia)
> November 27, 2005
> Author: Compiled by Anthony Black
> ...


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## Kipp (2 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*

Hi Richkid,
I've taken an interest in MAH since you pointed it out as a potential breakout.  They have done pretty well over last couple of years (from fin reports '04 and '05) do you think they can replicate their 69% after tax profit growth in '06?  Certainly revenue is still growing strongly in late '05.

By my figures- at 61c their current P.E ratio is 11-12 (it is really annoying that the ASX doesn't list P.E's on their website... grrr) but I'm not sure how this compares to the rest of the construction industry.  

Do you still feel a breakout is on the way?
Thanks,

Kipp.


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## RichKid (2 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*



			
				Kipp said:
			
		

> Hi Richkid,
> I've taken an interest in MAH since you pointed it out as a potential breakout.  They have done pretty well over last couple of years (from fin reports '04 and '05) do you think they can replicate their 69% after tax profit growth in '06?  Certainly revenue is still growing strongly in late '05.
> 
> By my figures- at 61c their current P.E ratio is 11-12 (it is really annoying that the ASX doesn't list P.E's on their website... grrr) but I'm not sure how this compares to the rest of the construction industry.
> ...




Hi Kipp,
Oops, haven't updated this, I was stopped out as the breakout I traded failed (almost instantly- so much for the textbook pattern!). There seems to be some supply around these recent highs so I'm not entering again yet- a lot of holders seem to sell into the strength created by anncts. 

Don't know much about the specifics of the fundamentals, mainly trading the chart atm but I like it longterm. Hard to say where it'll go so please don't lose your hard earned on my dud speccies! I'd like to see if it retests earlier support/resistance levels....just watching atm for a clearer pattern.


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## Kipp (3 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*

Thanks Richo,
I have some questions that will make me look every bit the beginner I am... 
firstly, what are the anncts?
and secondly, where can you find the supply/demand levels for a stock that you quoted?  A few other posts have mentioned big trades (i.e. sale of 2.5 million shares by one trader) is this listed on the asx website somewhere?

Thanks,
Kipp


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## RichKid (3 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*



			
				Kipp said:
			
		

> Thanks Richo,
> I have some questions that will make me look every bit the beginner I am...
> firstly, what are the anncts?
> and secondly, where can you find the supply/demand levels for a stock that you quoted?  A few other posts have mentioned big trades (i.e. sale of 2.5 million shares by one trader) is this listed on the asx website somewhere?
> ...




Hi Kipp,
No probs. The anncts were about the company winning some contracts. If you go to www.asx.com.au you can look up anncts by company. Compare the date of the annct to the price chart and you will see a pattern, a brief spike and then decline. This is sometimes described as "buy the rumour sell the fact" (ie some ppl (insiders) get advance info on the annct b4 it's released and buy in at lower prices, they then sell after the annct as new ppl buy in on the 'good' news- the sellers overwhelm the buyers and the price drops- doesn't always happen like that and some stocks do the opposite).

The supply demand (buy/sell) levels (market depth) can be found at (For example) www.fatprophets.com.au but it's delayed by about 30min (ie not live prices/figures) and only has the top level of bids and offers, it also has trades by parcel size and price; also try www.morrisonsecurities.com.au (there is a link to a trial version of their charting programme, I think that has depth, but just check).

Hope this helps, I think you should browse throug the beginners forum topics and do some searches on keywords (eg 'market depth') to get some background info on basic terms, it'll really help, questions always welcome but search to see if they've been answered before.

Please don't take any of my comments as advice or tips as I'm not qualified to give financial advice.

Good luck!


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## RichKid (3 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*

I've posted a screenshot of a live market depth screen from Comsec ProTrader, I've expanded one price level to show all 10 orders at that price, you can see there's quite a bit of supply to overcome before prices move higher. Also remember that not all orders are shown on screen, they don't just sit there, someone may decide to sell or buy a large parcel without just leaving it in the queue; especially with bigger stocks or trades that may occur off market.


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## Kipp (4 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*

Richo I think you are a better stock picker than you give yourself credit for... SP up to 65.5 today.  But I'm now apprehensive to get in... cause I am superstitious about buying stocks that have just had a big jump.  But charts aside, this looks like a good company with good growth prospects.  I'll get in if it drops below 60 (which I can't see happening).


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## RichKid (4 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*



			
				Kipp said:
			
		

> Richo I think you are a better stock picker than you give yourself credit for... SP up to 65.5 today.  But I'm now apprehensive to get in... cause I am superstitious about buying stocks that have just had a big jump.  But charts aside, this looks like a good company with good growth prospects.  I'll get in if it drops below 60 (which I can't see happening).




Hi Kipp,
If only I could trade them properly! Maybe people should buy as soon as I get stopped out! 

I think my issue here is psychological, I could have had another stab last month at MAH after those candle tails rejected lower prices but I froze up and waited. I'm waiting again for a retest further down from the current level- something which may not occur, oh well, another low risk set up is probably just around the corner.....hate missing this one though!


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## RichKid (17 January 2006)

*Re: MAH Macmahon Holdings*

Emmm, not so confident about this now, still a very strong uptrend overall but no reason to enter yet. Sellers pushing this down now....knowing my timing this stock will probably turn around when I least expect it...I don't trust the buy depth as much as I did before for this stock.


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## Kipp (31 January 2006)

Bought in at 61c just over a week ago... happy days!
Looks like SP could return down to 65 or so....


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## Sean K (3 August 2006)

MAH has been a very solid performer over the past 3 years supported by the commodities boom. If you think the 'stronger for longer, labour squeeze, equipment shortages,' is going to be around for a bit longer, then these guys are worth a look at. 

Plus as discussed in the Merger/Takeover Thread, they've been touted as a possible takeover target for one of the larger players: take your pick. 

I picked up a few around .70c, looking for a break through .90 to head higher for longer.....

Good short and long term chart imo. 2 year and 6 mth charts below:


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## Kipp (3 August 2006)

Ah... kennas, welcome to the thread!  (Has just been me and Richo for a while... though I don't think he ever bought in.)

Interesting to see if MAH can continue it's awesome profit growth of ~50% the last couple of years... given lastest action, I think the market is anticipating postive finanicals once more.

Shame you weren't around to talk me out of selling in April (77) switched over to MAP... great decision


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## stiger (3 August 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Ah... kennas, welcome to the thread!  (Has just been me and Richo for a while... though I don't think he ever bought in.)
> 
> Interesting to see if MAH can continue it's awesome profit growth of ~50% the last couple of years... given lastest action, I think the market is anticipating postive finanicals once more.
> 
> Shame you weren't around to talk me out of selling in April (77) switched over to MAP... great decision



Kipp rule 1, when you invest in shares you are in competition with every one else that has them in the same mob.       Take no prisoners.


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## Kipp (3 August 2006)

stiger said:
			
		

> Kipp rule 1, when you invest in shares you are in competition with every one else that has them in the same mob.       Take no prisoners.



Hey... I was just having a quiet whinge, nothing more...
my first year on the ASX ha has some good decisions and some less good ones.   I still rode MAH from 61 to 77.  And actaully made money with MAP twice, just got lucky buying in the $3 dips.  But as a long term prospect I think MAH has it in spades.

But if you're objection is to that of pointless whinging on the ASF---- then I get it.  It's a wasted thread, but it does of course provide some solace for those in the same boat (i.e. CAZ 3 months ago etc).


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## Sean K (14 August 2006)

MAH acquires specialist underground mining services group operating as ARD and CRE with debt and cash and to have revenue of $55m in FY 2007 and be EPS eccretive. 

This purchase should add yet further potential for MAH to add to it's already huge contract book. 

I've thought this company to be a takeover target by WOR, UGL or DOW, but perhaps they'll be able to buy DOW soon???!!


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## Kipp (29 August 2006)

Think a good buying opportunity may have just passed.  SP slid to intradays lows of 78.5 yesterday and again today before closing at 81.5.  
There wasn't much free cash for me to jump back in though, so let the opportunity go.  But it may come around again.

Reading the MAH annual report- another growth year of 30% in profits does not look unachieveable, given that their current book value at June 30(contracts awarded) is ~1.2 bill (compared to 900m in 2005).  And revenue is forecast at approx 1-1.1 bill (up from 864 in FY06).  Possibly this is conservative as MacMahon has added ~370 mill of new projects in the New FY (including the Mitchell Freeway extenstion in Perth- announced last week)

$87 mill in cash, but $160mill in Debt (which is slightly worrying deby equity ratio when compared to $170m Equity!)
I suppose it has been necessary to accumulate so much debt in order to grow at the rate they have in the past few years?  

Great company.  IN the growth state (WA), and considerably diversified enough to survive a meltdown in the mining industry (but not without a few scars)  

In spite of the above ramp- I don't hold MAH (I just hold them in high regard)


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## michael_selway (29 August 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Hey... I was just having a quiet whinge, nothing more...
> my first year on the ASX ha has some good decisions and some less good ones.   I still rode MAH from 61 to 77.  And actaully made money with MAP twice, just got lucky buying in the $3 dips.  But as a long term prospect I think MAH has it in spades.
> 
> But if you're objection is to that of pointless whinging on the ASF---- then I get it.  It's a wasted thread, but it does of course provide some solace for those in the same boat (i.e. CAZ 3 months ago etc).




MAH aint bad, and ist up there with WOR, UGL, DOW, MND etc

*MAH - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 5.4 6.7 8.5 9.4 
DPS 2.0 2.8 3.5 3.8 

MND - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 35.2 44.4 54.7 51.0 
DPS 33.0 35.0 32.7 25.3 * 


thx

MS


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## Kipp (29 August 2006)

MS- you are TOTALLY in love with Commsec aren't you?  I have just signed up with them - and can't wait to start trading with them (previous broker Avcol- cheap and but no frills at all, incl stop losses).

How accurate have you found their EPS forecasts so far?  I mean revising ZFX to 2.20 in June isn't the same as calling it last Nov.  And I remember thinking that the MAP EPS that you posted was a long way off too... maybe I'll go to the old MAP thread and suss out their forecasts- and see how tey compared to the end result.

And I think it's a bit unfair to be comparing DOW to MAH, maybe Mondphelous (spelling) or Leighton holdings, but DOW s doing it tough.


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## RichKid (29 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> MAH has been a very solid performer over the past 3 years supported by the commodities boom. If you think the 'stronger for longer, labour squeeze, equipment shortages,' is going to be around for a bit longer, then these guys are worth a look at.
> 
> Plus as discussed in the Merger/Takeover Thread, they've been touted as a possible takeover target for one of the larger players: take your pick.
> 
> ...




Nice charts Kennas, I haven't checked MAH since your post of a few weeks ago but this looks like a wave 4 in EW speak, if it moves into a wave 5 I can't see it going beyond the all time highs, unless we see some sort of extension. This recent ranging move would offer a good entry around 70/75c if it drops that far but I guess I'll have to look at the latest chart to confirm.


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## Kipp (18 September 2006)

Kennas,
what is going on here with MAH?  Nothing but positive announcements over the last couple of weeks (i.e. Mitchell HWY and Diamond Mine contracts both worth over $100 M each) but share price having a bit of a dip.  What am I missing here?  Granted it did go Ex Dividend but that can't explain all of the fall.
Seems to be pretty good support in the 74-75 range in the 6 month chart.  So I think it's time I bought a few.  What do you make of it?  

The 4th in a row my stock tip has crumbled... I'm really not holding up well at all in the comp...   
Hope you had a bit of a ride on EVE...
Kipp


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## watsonc (18 September 2006)

All resource stocks took a bit of a hit recently, MAH business is linked to the resource sector - hence the unusual downfall in share price.


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## Sean K (19 September 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> what is going on here with MAH?  Nothing but positive announcements over the last couple of weeks (i.e. Mitchell HWY and Diamond Mine contracts both worth over $100 M each) but share price having a bit of a dip.  What am I missing here?  Granted it did go Ex Dividend but that can't explain all of the fall.
> Seems to be pretty good support in the 74-75 range in the 6 month chart.  So I think it's time I bought a few.  What do you make of it?
> 
> ...




I agree that its linked to the general resource correction last week. Should find support between $0.70 and $0.75. 

I'm still stronger for longer with resources with China driving demand, but becomming more sceptical. Not buying anything but gold and uranium atm, or topping up on things that I think are oversold. Don't think MAH is into that zone yet. Still good 1-2 year chart, just taking a breather along with the other resource linked companies perhaps. Management keep winning good contracts that will drive returns medium to long term.  

Risk still is US recession/hard landing knocking China.


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## Sean K (22 September 2006)

MAH has found some support at $0.75, but looks to have dipped out of it's 1 year trend channel. Is hitting 200d ma which should give it support though. Perhaps that's why it's hovering at $0.75 atm.

If it doesn't find some traction, then it could be on the slide for a while. Negative action probably just due to commodities market atm, but if you've not a long term horizon on this, be wary. I'm long on this, as I see more upside in this as an individual stock compared to sector. I'm still stronger for longer on Chindia, so prepared for the short term drift sideways.


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## Kipp (26 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> MAH has found some support at $0.75, but looks to have dipped out of it's 1 year trend channel. Is hitting 200d ma which should give it support though. Perhaps that's why it's hovering at $0.75 atm.
> 
> If it doesn't find some traction, then it could be on the slide for a while. Negative action probably just due to commodities market atm, but if you've not a long term horizon on this, be wary. I'm long on this, as I see more upside in this as an individual stock compared to sector. I'm still stronger for longer on Chindia, so prepared for the short term drift sideways.




Kennas, I;m sure I don't need to remind you- but a fair bit of MAH's Order book comes from outside the resources sector (Mitchell Freeway extension etc).  <50% from Mining.  So I don't think MAH will fall to pieces with commodities come off the boil.

Unless...
you take the view that some portion of it's contracts fall through as "bad debts" from 2-bit mining companies when Zn, Cu etc return to historical levels.  And suddenly MAH has 40mill of unrecoverable debt for FY07... and then it's you remember that their profit margins are only 5%... so that it would require $800M of revenue to generate 40 mill of profit.... eeek!!

Sorry- I am being a fool.  It's just that margins aren't all that wide in Construction (through to the MAH management's credit, their margins have INCREASED in FY06 from 4 to 5.2%... despite cost pressures in the industry).

And well, as for my little bad debts scenario.  MAH seems to have some pretty secure clients.  BHP, WA government, (and lastly KIM, don't know much about them though)... so it's a pretty unlikely scenario.  Yet there were probably a few MAH equivalents who got burnt when Pasminco went into liquidation (though I don't know the details there so well).

Anyhow... I didn't get my order filled at 75 cents... pretty stupid of me really, cause 76cents would of only cost me an extra $30!!!  (Remembering of course that I deal in very petty sums in the market).  But maybe I'll get my chance in Red October.


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## Sean K (26 September 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Kennas, I;m sure I don't need to remind you- but a fair bit of MAH's Order book comes from outside the resources sector (Mitchell Freeway extension etc).  <50% from Mining.  So I don't think MAH will fall to pieces with commodities come off the boil.
> 
> And well, as for my little bad debts scenario.  MAH seems to have some pretty secure clients.  BHP, WA government, (and lastly KIM, don't know much about them though)... so it's a pretty unlikely scenario.  Yet there were probably a few MAH equivalents who got burnt when Pasminco went into liquidation (though I don't know the details there so well).
> 
> Anyhow... I didn't get my order filled at 75 cents... pretty stupid of me really, cause 76cents would of only cost me an extra $30!!!  (Remembering of course that I deal in very petty sums in the market).  But maybe I'll get my chance in Red October.





Hi Kipp, 

$0.75 did work to be short term support. $0.70 is long term support IMO, so be prepared for that. Might pick it up next month....But I've seen some bullish reports on this Qtr. Tips of 5300 on ASX...

Been trending nicely lately, time for an upward move perhaps.....

Cheers, kennas


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## Sean K (23 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Hi Kipp,
> 
> $0.75 did work to be short term support. $0.70 is long term support IMO, so be prepared for that. Might pick it up next month....But I've seen some bullish reports on this Qtr. Tips of 5300 on ASX...
> 
> ...




I hate people who quote themselves.

MAH broken out by the look of it. Previous resistance between $0.85 and $0.90, now hopefully a solid support area. $1.00 in sights.


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## Sean K (2 November 2006)

Could almost crack $1.00. Awarded yet ANOTHER contract: $230 mil from BHP in the Pilbara. Come on LEI, WOR, UGL, DOW - take me over for $2.00. Bargain!


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## Sean K (2 November 2006)

Didn't take $1.00, but close. Getting some media which will support it. Really has been a great little company. 

Broke through resistance at $0.90 the past week, tested it, and headed on to all time highs. Blue sky now. 

I'll be buying more still on the next pull back. Perhaps if it tests $0.90 again. 

From The Age today:

*Macmahon scores $230m Pilbara mine deal*
November 2, 2006 - 2:29PM

Macmahon Holdings Ltd has been awarded a three and a half year $230 million mining, crushing and train loading contract at the BHP Billiton Iron Ore Jimblebar mine in Pilbara, Western Australia.

The mine has been operated by Macmahon on a short-term contract since March.

"We have worked closely with BHP Billiton Iron Ore to finalise a contract that includes a carefully considered risk profile for each party, with Macmahon taking the appropriate responsibility for the issues it manages," chief executive Nick Bowen said.

"Macmahon now has a significant presence in iron ore with BHP Billiton with the two long term contracts in the Newman region, Orebody 18 and Jimblebar, requiring a combined workforce of more than 300 people."


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## Sean K (9 November 2006)

MAH falling over, heading to $0.90 by the look of it.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (10 November 2006)

KENNAS what d'hell happened to MAH -83 cents! wave that magic wand at 90 cents


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## Sean K (10 November 2006)

Really unusual. Can't make out why yet. 

Sold allplant for $70 mil.....is that bad? Perhaps the market thought it was worth more?

In the CEOs adress today he said the revenue for next year was likely to be at the lower end of the $1 - 1.1b range and that EBIT might not make 6% as advised this year but will the following. That's the only thing I can see that might have contributed to this. Perhaps the market was looking for figures above and beyond. Tough. 

Off 11%. That is a knee jerk oversold reaction to me. But, I have only scanned the anns today, perhaps there's more in it. I guess we'll find out. 

$0.90 was support, now it's $0.85, but it's sitting just under that as well. I'd expect a bounce on Monday unless there's something we don't know about.


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## Sean K (10 November 2006)

This is a news report that came out after the anns:

*MacMahon expects growth in FY07, FY08 *
10/11/2006 02:33:29 PM 

MacMahon Holdings Ltd says the outlook for its mining business is positive and that it expects annual profit to grow in the 2007 fiscal year.

Managing director Nick Bowen also said that profit in the second half of this year would be stronger than the first half, excluding the proceeds from the sale of the company's Allplant Hire business to Coates Hire Ltd.

Mr Bowen told shareholders that Macmahon's mining business had secured $850 million in contracts and contract extensions in the first four months of this financial year.

"The outlook for our mining business is very positive ... and the next 12 months will be spent bedding down the contracts that we've won," he said at the company's annual general meeting.

"Second half profit is expected to be stronger than the first half (excluding the Allplant Hire profit on sale).

"We anticipate annual profit to grow in 2007 and expect further increase in 2008," he said.

Macmahon said earlier that it had sold the Allplant equipment hire division to Coates for $70 million, and that it expected to realise a profit before tax of about $12 million on the deal.

Mr Bowen also told the meeting the company's contract for underground works at the Argyle diamond mine in WA was worth $180 million.

*MacMahon made a net profit of $7.5 million in 2005/06, down 53 per cent on the prior year.
*
The result included a $19.9 million writedown on the value its seven per cent investment in Asia Pacific Transport.

At 1412 AEDT, MacMahon shares were up 1.5 cents to 95 cents.

Nothing odd or new in this review. The writedown I've put in bold was made aware to the public ages ago. This was factored into the sp.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (10 November 2006)

Kennas miracalously I pulled the pin before the announcement ,when I flicked the screen and saw 83 cents I thought MAGIC ,by the time I did my calc's I felt like "hold on lets see if it falls further"! Kennas I have watched this share when it was 51 cents.....and still google'ing this one!


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## Sean K (10 November 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Kennas miracalously I pulled the pin before the announcement ,when I flicked the screen and saw 83 cents I thought MAGIC ,by the time I did my calc's I felt like "hold on lets see if it falls further"! Kennas I have watched this share when it was 51 cents.....and still google'ing this one!




My reasons for buying this haven't changed. I haven't held as long as you, but am still well up. These guys just keep winning contracts and their only error has been investing in a rail line. Very strange that they get punished today when the market is pretty buoyant.   

Hopefully there's at least a dead cat on Monday am. 

Come over here WOR, DOW, etc, come and buy me. Maybe even that other company named after a flower could make a bid. Monadelphous or something...


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## Kauri (10 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> My reasons for buying this haven't changed. I haven't held as long as you, but am still well up. These guys just keep winning contracts and their only error has been investing in a rail line. Very strange that they get punished today when the market is pretty buoyant.
> 
> Hopefully there's at least a dead cat on Monday am.
> 
> Come over here WOR, DOW, etc, come and buy me. Maybe even that other company named after a flower could make a bid. Monadelphous or something...




    I don't hold this one but couldn't help notice the spirited selling that went on for a couple of days at the recent high. Was on my list for possible shorts but couldn't find any other tech reason for shorting.Looks like someone knew something and didn't tell you??


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## Sean K (10 November 2006)

I think that was Hunter Hall selling down.


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## Kauri (10 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I think that was Hunter Hall selling down.




   Then we should see the sub holder notice next week??


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## 3 veiws of a secret (10 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> My reasons for buying this haven't changed. I haven't held as long as you, but am still well up. These guys just keep winning contracts and their only error has been investing in a rail line. Very strange that they get punished today when the market is pretty buoyant.
> 
> Hopefully there's at least a dead cat on Monday am.
> 
> Come over here WOR, DOW, etc, come and buy me. Maybe even that other company named after a flower could make a bid.




I think I will be sniffing at the blood come monday morning ,thankfully I did not buy at  90 cents.....furthermore feel pretty wounded today with UGL loosing out to DOW in the tender -$15K......makes me sort of humble ,meek and time for a glass of chardonnay!


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## Kauri (10 November 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> .....furthermore feel pretty wounded today with UGL loosing out to DOW in the tender -$15K......makes me sort of humble ,meek and time for a glass of chardonnay!




  3 views...
        and rather funny (if thats the right word), that both DOW and UGL made the bulk of their intraday moves* before* the trading halts/ ann's. Check out the intraday charts.


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## GreatPig (11 November 2006)

Heading back to a new lower trendline perhaps?

GP


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## Sean K (13 November 2006)

Dead cat bouncing well. Back up 8% atm. 

Still well above long, long term ma, and 200d ma. 

Might have been a buying opp yesterday afternoon.


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## Sean K (7 December 2006)

Bouncing off support line at $0.825 ish, and 200d ma. Pretty reliable indicator there. Lost count of the amount of stocks I have seen that occur. Good moves on the MACD perhaps starting a trend up again. It's been a bit volatile, but it's going up...  

I was going to sell this if it broke the 200 d ma. Lucky MAH, lucky!


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## Sean K (2 January 2007)

Still generally going up and heading back to previous highs but will find some trouble around $0.90 again. MACD still going up and might be about to hit signal line shortly which will be a good sign. Not much news lately on the contract front. With the sale of Allplant seems like they going to focus on contract mining. I'm still waiting for a takeover from one of the big players but this seems like never materialising to me. I've been waiting about 18 months...getting impatient! Come on LEI/WOR/DOW start a bidding war....Any other holders going to switch out, or holding long term?


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## Sean K (22 February 2007)

I must be the only one on this. Anyone?

Hopefully the break through 90 cents will make it support now. This big ascending triangle will have to be smashed soon...surely! Please....

I'm still holding for the long anticipated takeover. Perhaps I'm dreaming...


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## Kipp (27 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I must be the only one on this. Anyone?
> 
> Hopefully the break through 90 cents will make it support now. This big ascending triangle will have to be smashed soon...surely! Please....
> 
> I'm still holding for the long anticipated takeover. Perhaps I'm dreaming...



I'm sure I don't need to tell you this but poor MAH was sold don pretty heavily today.  I have a flip through their half-yearly report and it didn't look to bad too me- though excluding the sale of All-Plant only managed a EPS pf 2.2c... not too breath-taking.  

But always worthwhile to consider how MacMahon has been prefroming relative to the sector, which has been enjoying some golden times.


----------



## Sean K (27 February 2007)

Seems to have well underperformed. I think I might have had enough waiting for the takeover....time to put the money elsewhere perhaps.


----------



## Sean K (3 May 2007)

I sold out of this at the bottom of it's recent form I think. Maybe bad timing. Something's going on here. That takeover finally happening?


----------



## hypnotic (3 May 2007)

Something is defintiely brewing here just look at the volume!!

and these are the last ten trades of the day... Look LARGE orders....
can anyone explain why??? I am still holding


04:33:33 PM 0.970 1,020 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 1,514,835 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 894,668 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 7,000 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 601,916 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 10,046 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 486,370 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 13,630 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 6,370 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 10,000


----------



## Sean K (3 May 2007)

Hypnotic said:
			
		

> Something is defintiely brewing here just look at the volume!!
> 
> and these are the last ten trades of the day... Look LARGE orders....
> can anyone explain why??? I am still holding





04:33:33 PM 0.970 1,020 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 1,514,835 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 894,668 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 7,000 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 601,916 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 10,046 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 486,370 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 13,630 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 6,370 
04:10:44 PM 0.970 10,000


It's got to be a takeover. What a shame I missed it. I suppose hasn't been ann yet and might be time to get in. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a speeding ticket at the office right now.


----------



## disarray (13 May 2007)

last weeks ASX announcement about Hunter Halls month long selloff selloff of 20 million shares is probably to blame for that. its not a heavily traded stock by any stretch so considering the volume it didn't hurt the share price too badly imo, and the 80c support line was up to the challenge.

its just broken $1 with the only higher resistance being 10 years old, and the market depth shows about 1 mil worth of buyers and 500k worth of sellers. also one of the execs just cashed 75,000 options. if it opens well this coming week i think i might throw a bit of money at it.


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## michael_selway (14 May 2007)

kennas said:


> 04:33:33 PM 0.970 1,020
> 04:10:44 PM 0.970 1,514,835
> 04:10:44 PM 0.970 894,668
> 04:10:44 PM 0.970 7,000
> ...




True but maybe because good results came out on 30/04/07, reaffirmed forecasts EPS and some new contracts as well

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 5.4 6.1 8.0 9.2 
DPS 2.5 2.5 3.5 4.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 6.1 16.4 12.8% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 8.0 12.5 31.2% *


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2007)

LEI has taken a stake and offered a takeover by the look, which has been turned down. 

This might turn into a hostile takeover, or an auction between LEI and another large player (WOR, DOW). 

Should add some value to MAH I assume.

*Damn it!! I held this for about 3 years waiting for this and now I'm out.*


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2007)

LEI ann appears to be saying that they have NO intention of taking them over. 

Perhaps it's just an 'investment' (read: blocking stake) now like they have with DOW.

Lucky, I thought I had missed the boat.


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2007)

kennas said:


> LEI ann appears to be saying that they have NO intention of taking them over.
> 
> Perhaps it's just an 'investment' (read: blocking stake) now like they have with DOW.
> 
> Lucky, I thought I had missed the boat.



Don't want to take them over. Right!!



> *Leighton Increases Stake In Macmahon To 12%*
> Report31/07/2007 08:06AM AEST
> 
> SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Leighton Holdings Ltd. (LEI.AU) has conducted an on market share raid on engineering contractor Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (MAH.AU) after being spurned by Macmahon, taking its stake to around 12%, the Australian Financial Review reported Tuesday.
> ...



Wonder what's next. LEI might be just preventing any other easy poaching of MAH doing this. Still, could be a chance of a hostile bid...


----------



## LRG (17 January 2008)

These went up to $2 recently and then pulled back slightly.  Sold off bad to a low of $1.39 the other day back up to $1.50's today though.  They appear to be getting a bigger share of the infrastructure work around AQustralia now.

Looks to be in a good position now for a few years to increase turnover.  They report 20%+ per annum increase on a recent media asx release.


----------



## Miner (18 January 2008)

LRG said:


> These went up to $2 recently and then pulled back slightly.  Sold off bad to a low of $1.39 the other day back up to $1.50's today though.  They appear to be getting a bigger share of the infrastructure work around AQustralia now.
> 
> Looks to be in a good position now for a few years to increase turnover.  They report 20%+ per annum increase on a recent media asx release.




I understood from a discussion with one of the senior executives that the CEO (ex HWE)  and team is working to lead the turnover to four times of current value in next 18 months.

Regards


----------



## doogle (13 February 2008)

I am so happy with my little MAH investment. They have held their value suitably well during this fluctuating market and seem to be quite booked up with work, I need something positive to cheer me up.


----------



## LRG (9 March 2008)

That Hale Street Bridge project they are costing at the moment for BCC seems to have gone a bit pear shaped of late?


----------



## Speewha (7 August 2008)

*Re: MAH - Up or Down*

Hello, 

Not much comment here on MAH since March so assume not very many interested at ASF. 

Need some assistance in reading recent chart seems to get support up to $1.70 then falls back slightly. If you look at course of sales last week or so lots of very small trades some smartie buys 25 then sells 25 about 30 mins later. 
Hope one of you chartist can have look and give your opinion , is it going to break the $1.70 or fall away. 

Regards


----------



## LRG (7 August 2008)

I think you may see the SP start to head north soon.

They are now locking in projects that were in preliminary design phase such as Hale Street Bridge in Brisbane; QRail central QLd coal upgrade project - both these in 100's of millions that will be built over next 18 - 24 months.

Plus they have locked in some more mining contracts.

I am not sure what the latest is on the Ausdrill takeover bid though??

Anyone heard?

While there is this 5-7 year infrastructure boom on in Aus you will see them get more and more turnover with less profit risk as the years go by - just like LEI etc.  

There reports predict 30-40% growth year on year.  I hold some of these long term and will review in 5-7 years if the infrastructure boom shows signs of platuea.  They are not a good yield stock, but IMO are an excellent capital gain stock.

LEI not long ago were $10 went to $60+ and are now $40+.

I see MAH as a mini LEI ready to replicate the growth in SP in the coming 5+ years.  Hope I am right, then I will sell down into a higher yield stock.


----------



## LRG (26 October 2008)

OMG what is going on here!!!

This share has tanked the last few weeks from 1.85 to .75 - why??

It's revenue / profit is growing at 20-30% per annum.

i don't get it!

I don't like losing 60% in a few weeks!

Does anyone else hold this??


----------



## Miner (27 October 2008)

LRG said:


> OMG what is going on here!!!
> 
> This share has tanked the last few weeks from 1.85 to .75 - why??
> 
> ...





MAH had a good business plan and at one time almost getting snared by LEI

Still chances are there

I guess that even if they have contracts in hand, their clients are not going to spend money in excavation. So operating contracts become paper tiger and so no fund being accumulated. 

That is why MAH probably getting punished. See FMG tanking. So if your company is a mining contractor with FMG it is obvious that your share price will tank too


----------



## Kipp (9 November 2008)

Miner said:


> That is why MAH probably getting punished. See FMG tanking. So if your company is a mining contractor with FMG it is obvious that your share price will tank too




Slapped again hard on Friday... closed at 70c.  Still has plenty of work on the order book (over $2 Bill)... which includes work OUTSIDE the mining sector (Gov't contracts, QLD rail).  BHP is a major client of MacMahon, and I don't see them going under just yet- though they have delayed Olympic Dam for a few years I read on another thread.


Looking cheap to me- but so is everything in this market?!


----------



## Kipp (10 November 2008)

Miner said:


> See FMG tanking. So if your company is a mining contractor with FMG it is obvious that your share price will tank too




Em... are you sure they are involved with FMG?  I see Rio, BHP and the govt as their key clients, and no projects with Fortesque.

EPS of 9.2c in 2008... should be well over 10c in FY09 according to their forecasts.
But imagine they will suffer a bit from Olympic Dam delays (worth 100mill).


----------



## kengaikl (11 November 2008)

Whats going on with MAH's share price. A 10% cut in forcast earnings equates to a 70% fall in the share price????  and they do not have cantracts with FMG. 75% are with BHP RIO and the Govvernment.


----------



## Miner (11 November 2008)

Kipp said:


> Em... are you sure they are involved with FMG?  I see Rio, BHP and the govt as their key clients, and no projects with Fortesque.
> 
> EPS of 9.2c in 2008... should be well over 10c in FY09 according to their forecasts.
> But imagine they will suffer a bit from Olympic Dam delays (worth 100mill).




I thought MAH got a contract from BHP for rail and Mitsubishi Coal as well
They basically stuffed up by chasing AUSdrill. Now Aus Drill also lost lot of money by buying back its shares (the MD did) and with FMG slow demise they are going to loose potential revenue from its $300 M contract. 

I do not know any inside story excepting it is suffering from some of the mine closure and no contract execution. But I believe it has a good business plan

But no prediction as all predictions go into drain with recession in every wheere


----------



## muzzza (17 December 2008)

Mcmahon Holdings announced today that it had been awarded a $40 million contract to construct the new Bunbury Port Access Road in Western Australia.

Up 10% today for a $0.42 close.

Whats the opinion out there - may be a good long term company to add to the portfolio?


----------



## bloomy88 (1 April 2009)

Been quite on this thread for a while. After MAH's dive from $1.90ish to 30c it looks to have consolidated at the 30c mark.
Although their industry is highly volatile at the moment and profit margins will be thin does any one have an opinion on MAH as a long term buy?

Huntley's Recomendation on Etrade recently down to a hold from a buy:

While 1H09 revenue growth continued to be strong growing 20% to $734.8m, as indicated in December 1H09 profit fell significantly below the pcp due to the timing of revenue recognition on two challenging construction contracts due for completion during H2. The financial outcome of both of these contracts is subject to the finalisation of claims with clients. As a result Construction pretax profit fell 70% to $6.4m despite revenue increasing 17% to $377m. The company now downgrades full-year NPAT guidance from ‘in line with last year’ - $48.8m – to $40m, plus or minus 10%. Directors cut the dividend from 2c to 1.5c fully franked. While the share price may continue to hold up at current levels given already large falls, the short to medium term could deliver nasty surprises that further sharply reduce profit. Thin margins make contractors’ profit highly volatile. With a bit of luck the civil construction sector will offset weakness in mining, but we still find it difficult to construct a convincing investment case in the current environment.

Cheers
Bloomy


----------



## LRG (4 April 2009)

MAH has been climbing well the last week out of the 30's now just over 50 cents.

Stock put on hold on friday awaiting announcement of a major project!

Looks like some good news early next week and the recovery will continue?

It will take many years though to get back to $2 IMO.


----------



## Lachlan6 (4 April 2009)

I have not looked at MAH for a while but this stock used to be one of my favourites. It looks sensational at the moment. It broke out of a large consolidation phase on Friday, volume is up and it really appears to be wanting to get on with it now. I will certainly be looking to place an order on Monday.


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## bloomy88 (27 April 2009)

Big announcement from MAH today, projected NPAT is now expected to be in the range of 15 - 20 million. This is a significant downgrade from the $40 million guidance they last announced. 
This announcement has prompted a 40% crash in MAHs SP today though.
I beleive MAH is still a great company for the future and it's alliance with Leighton is a great plus.

Is anyone looking to buy in at these prices? Before this announcement Huntley's had a buy trigger on MAH for between 25-35c but im sure that will change as a result of this announcement.

All thought are appreciated
Bloomy


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## johannlo (27 April 2009)

Me, but I'm in this one for the short term, once the panic stops and the price recovers ~20% I'm out again.

I like Ausenco (AAX) more if you're after a long term engineering buy.


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## Sean K (27 April 2009)

Is this an overreaction?

Good knife grab opportunity?

Seems overdone initially, this had already been factored in to the sp in my opinion. Therefore, my guess is that it will have been oversold on fear. 

Does LEI hold a large stake in this? 

Just a guess that there will be some consolidation in this sector with the big players mopping up the trash. This is looking like trash now.


----------



## bloomy88 (27 April 2009)

I think it is a great oportunity to buy MAH at this price. Looks like an over-reaction to me as well.

Leighton have a 17% stake in MAH and often use them in their projects, 
ie: BHP rail contract which will bring $250million in revenue to MAH...


----------



## johannlo (27 April 2009)

Exactly my logic. I believe price will recover at least 10-20% within the next 6 months. 

I'm a bit of a n00b and have a very moderate, spread-the-risk strategy so YMMV  but this is definitely a speculative buy for me. 

We also have the double whammy of the engineering stock general downturn on the back to today's business age/SMH article about WA/QLD engineering downturn forecasts, I think this has combined to cause today's panic selling.


----------



## bloomy88 (28 April 2009)

Huntley has reduced their Accumulation and Buy triggers to $0.35 and $0.26 respectively following MAHs profit downgrade yesterday.
MAH up 4% so far today but i beleive their could be some volatile trading in the days ahead for them. Im sure the increase in gearing from 12% to just under 40% would be worrying people as well, couldnt be a good sign for their current cash flow.
I think ill wait a bit before i jump in now, there could be some more bad news on the way for MAH. I still beleive that it is a solid company though and it will be recovering strongly when the economy heats up again.
Cheers


----------



## Annwn (2 August 2009)

Stronger Vol on the last 2 days in response to announcements, broken a long term trading range.

31 July 2009
Ulan Line Alliance Win
Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX:MAH) and Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) announced today that ARTC has awarded Macmahon and MVM Rail work as part of the $100 million Ulan Line Alliance programme.
The package is one of three capital works programmes designed to increase the coal carrying capacity of the Main Northern Railway Corridor in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales.
The Ulan Line Alliance will undertake the design and construction of eleven passing loops and associated tunnel ventilation works on the line between Muswellbrook and Ulan.
Macmahon Chief Executive Officer, Nick Bowen, said that the announcement reflected the Group’s growing ability to provide comprehensive civil infrastructure solutions to major customers, such as the ARTC.

27 July 2009
Macmahon awarded Olympic Dam contract extension
Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX:MAH) announced today that it had been awarded a two year contract extension at BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine in South Australia.
The contract involves underground mine development works, including shotcreting, cable bolting and other associated works, with an estimated value of more than $110 million.
Macmahon Chief Executive Officer, Nick Bowen, said Macmahon has been operating at Olympic Dam since 2004 and has consistently delivered safe, productive and quality services.
“Our contract at Olympic Dam has now been extended four times, and on each occasion, our team of experienced people have stepped up and responded to the client’s requirements.


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## gfresh (16 August 2009)

Interesting Ann after close on Friday.. 

MOU with Leighton is to be renewed in November.. Leighton is pushing Macmahon to remove the clause that says they must require written permission to increase their stake over 19.9% of MAH.. 

So looks like LEI is keen on holding the option of acquiring a controlling stake in Macmahon at some point.

Presently trading at 57.5c


----------



## lucifuge (17 August 2009)

I have to share a lot of sentiment over this stock. IMHO this is a quality stock that was over-slaughtered in the recent crash. If you consider the following points:

1. Prior to the crash, Wise-Owl were interviewed on TV and their head analyst said he found LEI an over-priced stock and actually preferred MAH for value.

2. The ASX industrials sector has been one of worst, if not THE worst hit due to the crash.

3. the consolidation of share prices in MAH plus the support levels witnessed over recent lows.

Simply put, I personally believe MAH to be one the best bargains out there.


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## LRG (16 September 2009)

Finally MAH seem to be heading north with some vigour - have broken through 70 cents and volume is up.

Apprarently there is a bit more work in the pipeline for these infrastructure builders such as leighton, macmahon, abigroup, thiess etc - compared to 6 months ago.  They tanked from $2 to 30 cents so 70 cents+ is a good recovery so far.

i bought at $1.60 and averaged down at 33 cents to just under 90 cents.

I hope they break throught $1 within the next 6 month then I'm out with my cash back.

IMO these types of stock are far too risky / cyclical - i did not realise when i first invested in them.

cheers


----------



## Miner (17 September 2009)

LRG said:


> Finally MAH seem to be heading north with some vigour - have broken through 70 cents and volume is up.
> 
> Apprarently there is a bit more work in the pipeline for these infrastructure builders such as leighton, macmahon, abigroup, thiess etc - compared to 6 months ago.  They tanked from $2 to 30 cents so 70 cents+ is a good recovery so far.
> 
> ...




Dear LRG

I have seen Macmahon very closely.

Its CEO was the CEO for Henry Walker Eltin group. A smart guy
You were right on the share price plummetting from $2 to 30 cents. It was like any other share Rio also came down to $30 about from $157. 

MAH was trading at 17 cents few months before it went to $2.

However its order book is excellent. Even on rainy season it won few significant long term contracts. Only few months back LEI wanted to take over MAH. Now LEI is sitting on a significant holding with MAH.

Current market is reviving and if you see trend of other construction based companies IMO MAH will be turning the corner. 

I bought it at some what higher price and then averaged it. Recently sold most of my holding and have only a small parcel . Personally I belive MAH has the merit but I am learning not to mix personal emotion with share


----------



## Putty7 (4 November 2009)

> Renewal of Memorandum of Understanding
> Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX:MAH) announced today that it has extended its Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Leighton Holdings, with both companies agreeing to continue the Partnering Relationship signed in November 2007.
> One of the key objectives of the renewed MOU is to give Macmahon the opportunity to expand its areas of business in Australia and overseas, without comprising the Company’s independence.
> Macmahon Chief Executive Officer, Nick Bowen, said that the agreement allows Macmahon to continue to increase its ability to win additional large infrastructure projects in the domestic and international markets.
> ...




I don't hold either Leightons (way over priced at the moment IMHO) or Macmahons, I have spent time working for Leightons as a contractor in WA and they do get a lot more right than most of their competition with regards to the way they conduct their various jobs. I am wondering weather it would be wise to pick up some MAH shares given that in the past Leightons has shown an interest in taking them over, I was working for them last time they had a crack at Macmahons, think they lifted from around 12% to the current 19.9%.

 Just wondering if the current climate, with work contract volume seeming to be on the improve, is a good time for them to acquire more MAH or if they are getting what they want out of the deal already without needing an increase. Anyones thoughts would be appreciated as mine tend to be a bit biased having worked in the industry.


----------



## lucifuge (6 November 2009)

I totally agree with your thinking. The takeover likelihood is very high IMHO. I onl read today in the SMH of Australia's expected growth in the economy into 2011/12 *and* also of Leighton's potential to revitalise the old Macmahon takeover. Perfect storm!?



Putty7 said:


> I don't hold either Leightons (way over priced at the moment IMHO) or Macmahons, I have spent time working for Leightons as a contractor in WA and they do get a lot more right than most of their competition with regards to the way they conduct their various jobs. I am wondering weather it would be wise to pick up some MAH shares given that in the past Leightons has shown an interest in taking them over, I was working for them last time they had a crack at Macmahons, think they lifted from around 12% to the current 19.9%.
> 
> Just wondering if the current climate, with work contract volume seeming to be on the improve, is a good time for them to acquire more MAH or if they are getting what they want out of the deal already without needing an increase. Anyones thoughts would be appreciated as mine tend to be a bit biased having worked in the industry.


----------



## Julia (6 November 2009)

Putty7 said:


> I don't hold either Leightons (way over priced at the moment IMHO)



Can you say why do you think they're over-priced?

They're still very considerably (around $25) below their previous high.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 November 2009)

I'd agree with all the positive sentiments. The gumnut family have had some dealings with MAH and they are a very well run company. They downsized recently prior to the gfc and have some good contracts.

Anyway that is all funnymentalism, and not worth two lumps of horse****.

The chart looks enticing. Many weak holders have been shaken out since Nov 08. I may throw a few zloty at MAH next week.

gg


----------



## Putty7 (7 November 2009)

Julia said:


> Can you say why do you think they're over-priced?
> 
> They're still very considerably (around $25) below their previous high.




Hi Julia, I think a fair valuation from Etrade is around $20, at the moment LEI are around the $35 mark, A lot of stuff they release in regards to upcoming work falls under their lesser companies, they do tender a lot of work and bring a lot to the table with good top end job management with contractors falling in underneath them to do the actual work. 

One thing coming up which may affect them is the amalgamation of RIO and BHP's iron ore infrastructure, HWE (LEI) have traditionally done BHP's contract mine work but the amalgamation will see BHP go to owner-operator mining, with contractors taking a very minor role, not sure where this will leave HWE.

Another thing is how much the Government plans to spend on infrastructure over the next few years with such a large debt hanging over them, they have promised a lot but seeing those promises come to fruition may be another thing entirely. Recently Leightons has had the Mandurah bypass and the Mandurah railway in WA, two very big jobs for State government, there are more coming up but not to the scale of these jobs that they undertook while they were at their peak SP.

I just noticed the Macas announcement and figured it would be interesting to see what opinions others had. I have worked for Leightons and hold them and a lot of the Leightons people I have met in high regard so it's hard to remain unbiased when MAH have been their main opposition over here for years.


----------



## Miner (7 November 2009)

Putty7 said:


> Hi Julia, I think a fair valuation from Etrade is around $20, at the moment LEI are around the $35 mark, A lot of stuff they release in regards to upcoming work falls under their lesser companies, they do tender a lot of work and bring a lot to the table with good top end job management with contractors falling in underneath them to do the actual work.
> 
> One thing coming up which may affect them is the amalgamation of RIO and BHP's iron ore infrastructure, HWE (LEI) have traditionally done BHP's contract mine work but the amalgamation will see BHP go to owner-operator mining, with contractors taking a very minor role, not sure where this will leave HWE.
> 
> ...




I realise it is the thread for MAH, But the context is for LEI

Bell has said SELL for LEI
But beware as they have said it before and LEI still went up the hill
Personally I discount BELL recommendation to take decision on the reverse direction. DYOR

See attached report. DNH LEI but do hold MAH


----------



## Julia (7 November 2009)

Putty, thank you for your comprehensive response - it's appreciated.   And apologies to all for hijacking the MAH thread.


----------



## geea (28 November 2009)

MAH seemed to have a good update yesterday. If it wasn't for the market falling over 2% they probably would have been up quite alot. After the update i'd say it's likely the market will re-rate MAH up and that the SP should have some good upside looking ahead.


----------



## bloomy88 (29 November 2009)

geea said:


> MAH seemed to have a good update yesterday. If it wasn't for the market falling over 2% they probably would have been up quite alot. After the update i'd say it's likely the market will re-rate MAH up and that the SP should have some good upside looking ahead.




Yeah they forcasted NPAT of $34 million in FY10 (which is double FY09)
This works out to EPS of 4.6c (734 mill shares on issue after cap raising) giving a P/E of 12.3.
Still, MAH is a very risky and will get flogged again if the market turns down again. I think there are other more consistent companies out there that dont have the same risk as MAH imo


----------



## sasch (15 February 2010)

Does anyone else here think Mah is severely undervalued? They announced another $500 contract today. Lei is valued at around $38 and announce a $290 million profit after tax. Mah last close $0.635 forecast profit $34 million. Hmmm. They are announcing their first half results tomorrow,should be interesting.
     I guess as others have said they have taken a beating and it will probably take a while for market sentiment to turn.





disclosure- holding mah


----------



## sasch (15 February 2010)

sasch said:


> Does anyone else here think Mah is severely undervalued? They announced another $500 contract today. Lei is valued at around $38 and announce a $290 million profit after tax. Mah last close $0.635 forecast profit $34 million. Hmmm. They are announcing their first half results tomorrow,should be interesting.
> I guess as others have said they have taken a beating and it will probably take a while for market sentiment to turn.
> 
> 
> ...




oops should have used market cap to compare the two. lei 11,152 million and mah 462 million.So if i have my figures right this time, lei is earning only a little over a 1/3 of the profit mah is per share.


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## tunrida (15 February 2010)

sasch said:


> Does anyone else here think Mah is severely undervalued? They announced another $500 contract today. Lei is valued at around $38 and announce a $290 million profit after tax. Mah last close $0.635 forecast profit $34 million. Hmmm. They are announcing their first half results tomorrow,should be interesting.
> I guess as others have said they have taken a beating and it will probably take a while for market sentiment to turn.
> disclosure- holding mah




not severely undervalued sasch but a nice pickup atm with both chart (double bottom; cup with handle; yarda yarda) and fundamentals looking good. compared to LEI (on old MAH data)
LEI div 3.2% (100% franked) 3yr div growth f'cast +40%, earnings +20%
MAH div 3.1% (no franking) 3yr div growth f'cast +100%, earnings +120%


----------



## tunrida (24 February 2010)

rollin'.................................................................................................


----------



## Miner (24 February 2010)

tunrida said:


> rollin'.................................................................................................




Hi Tunrida

what is your message with the graph attached ?

Few words will be nice. 

 though not an issue but wondering how the attachment without any words as such could get filtered through the 100 character restriction


----------



## tunrida (24 February 2010)

Miner said:


> Hi Tunrida
> 
> what is your message with the graph attached ?
> 
> ...



a few words??......i thought i was lucky to get away with just one word hoping that it had less chance of offending moderators.
not sure I can say Miner - last week i posted my analysis of recent price action (different share) and the fact that prices had established strong support and resistance levels and price action having poked through such resistance I mentioned the word "..." as a signal (Not that I'm mentioning it here and now mind) and received an infraction notice.....and received yet another infraction notice for suggesting on separate thread that words like b../up/covershort/long/positive etc etc all mean the same to traders so suspect my explanation here will put me over the infraction points limit and result in a permanent exit for tunrida.....nevermind, some they pick on some they don't.
if the moderators were all apparent I would put them all on ignore so as not to inadvertantly respond to any of their posts period - too risky
hoping you get to see this post before it is removed
cheers


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## Miner (24 February 2010)

tunrida said:


> a few words??......i thought i was lucky to get away with just one word hoping that it had less chance of offending moderators.
> not sure I can say Miner - last week i posted my analysis of recent price action (different share) and the fact that prices had established strong support and resistance levels and price action having poked through such resistance I mentioned the word "..." as a signal (Not that I'm mentioning it here and now mind) and received an infraction notice.....and received yet another infraction notice for suggesting on separate thread that words like b../up/covershort/long/positive etc etc all mean the same to traders so suspect my explanation here will put me over the infraction points limit and result in a permanent exit for tunrida.....nevermind, some they pick on some they don't.
> if the moderators were all apparent I would put them all on ignore so as not to inadvertantly respond to any of their posts period - too risky
> hoping you get to see this post before it is removed
> cheers





Dear Tunrida

Not to be worried friend.
Mods are like us but with higher responsibilities to make the site a better one.

I have tried to visit HC and many people like it but I felt to be a misfit there.

Please do not feel bad if mods are watching us for the best interest of all.

As you can see they have taken on board what you said and your posting is still there.

Surely you would have received some PM from them but that is life and to keep us on track. I have also received refractions in the past but moved on. 

Have a good profit from MAH whatever your strategy with MAH is.

I am a holder and a bit loyal to MAH just because I liked the organisation and its business.


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## Miner (11 March 2010)

At last MAH is turning the wheel to churn some butter from the milkpot.
It is going to have a serious dating with LEI to taste the togetherness.
A contract for underground rail contract is awarded to LEI and MAH to work together. The trading will be lifted and certainly the market will receive this news with smile.

If I look back the scenario of LEI intention to acquire MAH at one stage could come closer and may happen in 2010 if the dating between MAH and LEI goes well in Hongkong. My wishful thoughts.

I do have a lot of respect for current MAH management and well aware of the shrewed halk eye of LEI management towards M & A,

My cynical mind asks this question: why MAH stopped trading to announce this but LEI did not stop trading. Was it because the announcement and impact of $ was too big for MAH due to its capital base and was rather insignificant for LEI to stop its trading. Interesting  if that is so. It means punter and insider of MAH and LEI could capitalise on LEI shares in that case. 

Any way MAH holders and aspirants - have a great day
PS : Disclaimer I do hold a small parcel


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## Silhouetteau (8 April 2010)

Im surprised no one has posted anything yet.

The MAH share price has jumped from a low of 71c on wednesday to a high of 88.5c today (~25% increase) in 2 days.

No announcements from the company.

They were issued with a please explain yesterday after an 8% increase in SP.

Holding MAH


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## roland (8 April 2010)

Silhouetteau said:


> Im surprised no one has posted anything yet.
> 
> The MAH share price has jumped from a low of 71c on wednesday to a high of 88.5c today (~25% increase) in 2 days.
> 
> ...




well, actually they did issue a statement. It was to say that they had no knowledge of rumoured contracts. I used the artificially inflated SP to pull some profits.


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## Miner (8 April 2010)

Silhouetteau said:


> Im surprised no one has posted anything yet.
> 
> The MAH share price has jumped from a low of 71c on wednesday to a high of 88.5c today (~25% increase) in 2 days.
> 
> ...






roland said:


> well, actually they did issue a statement. It was to say that they had no knowledge of rumoured contracts. I used the artificially inflated SP to pull some profits.




My postulate on the high share price jump is :


Dr David Smith ex MD of Pilbara Iron (Rio Tinto Iron's business unit) has recently joined the board. 

MAH has ripened for takeover by LEI.

LEI has won significant contracts and itching to M & A mode again

MAH has won some significant contracts. It is a good synergy to amalgamate.

Some of the above M & A guess could be totally wrong. But if there is a smoke there is a
lways a fire

I do hold MAH and should have added up by selling few other dead woods

DYOR


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## zerolimit (24 May 2010)

trading at 0.50 when was 0.80 a month ago? with no bad news?

solid company, possible takeover target, pays dividends, 

i picked up some on friday


I do hold MAH


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## Sharkymon (25 October 2010)

I've had enough of MAH and their shallow margins and disappointing profits and I'm getting out. Although, admittedly I've been happy enough to take the dividends, I cant see the stock regaining the price glory of pre-GFC days. At least not without some change to the way they price their services IMO.


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## 3aq1e (8 November 2010)

+$200 million contract announcement today.  .. could mean good things.


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## johnoshea311 (16 November 2010)

Anyone else notice that ACS will have a very large stake in MAH if they take over leightons? 

Does anyone think they will place a takeover bid in the near future? (assuming they takeover leightons)


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## zzaaxxss3401 (13 January 2011)

The buyers are building up...
@12.47
138 buyers - 2,517,171 units
198 sellers - 5,525,843 units

@14.38
162 buyers - 3,136,651 units
182 sellers - 5,261,963 units

Potential break out possible (posted on Potential Breakout thread):


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## roland (13 January 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> The buyers are building up...
> @12.47
> 138 buyers - 2,517,171 units
> 198 sellers - 5,525,843 units
> ...




Certainly watching, would really like to see just one more probe lower. It may happen when MAH releases the effects of the floods to their bottom line....


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## LRG (18 January 2011)

MAH remains adisappointing basket case IMO.

I sold out all my holding at a big loss last year fro around 74c - even though i had paid up to around $2 before the GFC.

I still read up on them and I cant see any good news - they seem to be just keeping there head above water in the P&L stakes year to year.

Will stay in the doldrums for quite a while yet.

Live and learn - i dropped quite a few $'s in unloading - anyway proved a better decision than keep holding and holding -what are they 53 cents or something - what a fall.

and to think Leighton bought a heap a couple of years ago as a take over target - they have dropped a bomb on their investment in MAH too.


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## lucifuge (20 January 2011)

MAH were hit hard yes, but note the sector it is in, it got hit hard. If you bought before the GFC then the damage, price-wise, was already done. Unfortunately this is one sector that is going to require patience and MAH is far from immune. If you feel the co. is no good, then fair enough; hopefully you can re-coup losses by other opportunities. Personally, I still have a lot of faith in MAH and believe it will return to rosier times. 



LRG said:


> MAH remains adisappointing basket case IMO.
> 
> I sold out all my holding at a big loss last year fro around 74c - even though i had paid up to around $2 before the GFC.
> 
> ...


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## zzaaxxss3401 (25 January 2011)

I'm still expecting this to breakout very shortly.



Buyers now outweighing sellers:


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## EddieRobinson (25 January 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> I'm still expecting this to breakout very shortly.
> View attachment 41024
> 
> 
> ...




I hope you are right!!


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## Muschu (19 February 2011)

Any thoughts on what last night's trading halt may lead to?


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## EddieRobinson (19 February 2011)

Muschu said:


> Any thoughts on what last night's trading halt may lead to?




Considering the resignation of the company Secretary and flogging of its SP, I'm not very optimistic  
DYOR


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## Miner (20 February 2011)

EddieRobinson said:


> Considering the resignation of the company Secretary and flogging of its SP, I'm not very optimistic
> DYOR




I do not think a secreatry's resignation or appointment matters much to fluctuate the SP.
Probably there could be some thing optimistic - new contract or offer from LEI   as MAH can not go any lower now


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## skc (21 February 2011)

Miner said:


> I do not think a secreatry's resignation or appointment matters much to fluctuate the SP.
> Probably there could be some thing optimistic - new contract or offer from LEI   as MAH can not go any lower now




It was there in the trading halt announcement... 'Finalisation of revenue recognition from the Company's Pilbara rail contract'.

Probably having a fight with the auditors on the results. And I bet you that if the auditors want to have the numbers look better than it really is, MAH won't be fighting against it...


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## SurveysAustralia (12 March 2011)

*RE: Macmahon Holdings - Just won one of the large GAS plant contracts in Queensland.*

Hello, can anyone shine light on this company. I remember in 2009 when it was announced they won a contract in the Pilbara their price spiked 25% in a week. Announced in the papers today that they won a contract in Qld worth $ M150.


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## Eager (8 October 2011)

I hold MAH and am slightly behind, having bought at an average of 63.5c over a year ago.

What annoys me greatly is that their share price has done absolutely nothing in the past couple of days even though the broader market has rebounded strongly. Why does that happen? Their forecasts are good etc but they just seem to be stuck where they are. I'm losing patience!


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## Eager (13 October 2011)

Trading halt today, I imagine to either to dispel or confirm the rumours that they have won a significant contract in Mongolia. There was recent confirmation that they were short-listed for a project to develop a new coal mine there.

Time will tell. In the meantime, their recent lift in share price has been most welcome.


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## matty77 (19 September 2012)

Ouch Messy day today!,,,


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## damien275x (19 September 2012)

Not for me, just got in.. they'll bounce back


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## matty77 (19 September 2012)

I got in around 33c or something.


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## EddieRobinson (28 September 2012)

matty77 said:


> I got in around 33c or something.




So did I - Particularly good that Nick Bowen has moved on


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## pixel (23 November 2012)

Some buyers stepping up today. A reaction to this morning's announcement?
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01359368

I hold.


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## matty77 (8 February 2013)

I hold.

And have finally started to make some $ on this one...


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## pixel (9 February 2013)

matty77 said:


> I hold.
> 
> And have finally started to make some $ on this one...




Congratz, Matty;
I had dropped it off my watchlist after it failed to deliver in November


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## dazed321 (20 February 2013)

Anyone got any ideas for the 5.5% drop yesterday ?
I'm a newbie and been following this one for a while, I dont seem to be able to get much info on.
Any ideas or tips would be be greatly appreciated.

Thanks have a nice day


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## pacman (25 April 2013)

Its on my watch list, looks like a prospect, but a wait and see.. although this could be a bottom...

 ASX Announcement: Half Year Results Feb 2013 - Feb 27, 2013 

Highlights:

    Mining operations achieved record $533.3 million revenue and record $23.1 million net profit after tax
    Net loss of $60.7 million for discontinued Construction operations, leading to overall loss of $37.6 million for the first half of FY13
    Mining services focus confirmed with overwhelming shareholder support for sale of Construction projects to the Leighton Group (“Leighton”)
    FY13 earnings guidance revised to now include impact of sale and wind down of Construction operations - net loss after tax in the range of $10 to $20 million
    Robust foundation for sustainable growth of Mining Business
                    Record mining order book of $3.6 billion, following award of Christmas Creek contract in January 2013
                    Strong balance sheet following completion of $80.7 million equity raising
                    Gearing currently low, 9.4 per cent at 31 December 2012

Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX:MAH) today announced its half year results to 31 December 2013, reporting an excellent performance from its Mining Business which underpins the Company’s future growth strategy. The Mining operations achieved a record $533.3 million in revenue for the half, resulting in a net profit after tax of $23.1 million, a 70% increase on the prior corresponding period.

The Company reported an overall loss (net after tax) of $37.6 million, which includes $60.7 million from its discontinued Construction Business, following major write-downs at its Hope Downs 4, Solomon and Urban Superway projects.

Macmahon Chief Executive Officer Ross Carroll said while the overall result was extremely disappointing, the performance of the Company’s Mining Business was a strong endorsement of the new strategy.

“With a record order book, strong balance sheet and low gearing, we are in a good position to grow the areas of the business that are already performing well,” he said.

“The recent growth of our Mining Business in a time of challenging market conditions highlights its sustainability and holds the Company in good stead for its mining focused future.”

The Company has strengthened its balance sheet through the recent $80.7 million equity raise and currently has low gearing (9.4 per cent at 31 December 2012), positioning it well to take on future commitments.

Following confirmation of the sale of Construction projects to Leighton at an Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders on 26 February 2013, the Company has revised its earnings guidance for the 2013 Financial Year to a net loss after tax in the range of $10 to $20 million.

As advised to the market, the Company’s previous guidance pre-dates the sale of the Construction projects to Leighton. Guidance now includes the impacts of the sale, specifically the removal of previously forecast profits for transferring Construction projects, the inclusion of closure costs including the write-off of goodwill and redundancy costs for non-transferring employees.

Importantly, the profit before tax guidance for the ongoing Mining Business is expected to be in excess of $85 million, subject to unexpected events including wet weather.

In announcing the results, Mr Carroll confirmed the Company’s new strategy would build on the success of the existing business.

“Surface Mining commenced operations for its two largest contracts during the half, providing a stable base for further growth.

“Underground Mining secured its sixth contract extension at Olympic Dam, highlighting the outstanding work of the team on site and the Company’s strong and productive relationship with the client.

“Our Engineering Business grew its revenue through scope variations to its major project, a shaft upgrade at the CSA Mine, and is implementing its strategy for growth into the surface mining sector.

“We also continue our offshore expansion with the establishment of a new office in Ghana to pursue further opportunities in Africa.”

The Company’s new business strategy will focus on its end to end service model, leveraging its strong relationships with existing blue chip clients.

With a record order book and a diverse business that has exposure to key geographic regions, multiple commodities and top quality clients, Macmahon is well placed to deliver future growth and consistent earnings.

*** ENDS ***


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## helpme (27 February 2016)

This stock has suddenly come back to life this week. This is despite it making a big loss last year. What's driving the stock price? Mining coming back to life in Australia?


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## Boggo (27 January 2017)

Now that is what you call an order, single too !!!

(click to expand)


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## skc (27 January 2017)

Boggo said:


> Now that is what you call an order !!!




It's just an on market bid @ 14.5 on behalf of CIM.


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## Boggo (27 January 2017)

Thanks for that. Big $$$ there.


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## skc (27 January 2017)

Boggo said:


> Thanks for that. Big $$$ there.




Yeah... it's for 80% of the company that CIM doesn't already hold. 

If you could buy @ 14.5 you get a risk free punt at a higher bid. But chances of that are probably smallish given CIM's existing stake.


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## peter2 (3 August 2018)

I received notice of a class action against Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH) because I'm a group member. That is, I bought shares between the dates of the lawsuit. 

So, I looked up my trade from 2012. Yeah, six years ago. The law system moves that slowly. 
You can see it in my chart. I pre-empted the BO of the ascending triangle (higher lows). The trade started well then hit a snag with a huge down day. I sold soon after for a small loss. 

A few weeks after I sold there was a huge price drop as the market responded to some bad news. 

The question for me is; Did I suffer my loss as a result of the conduct of MAH (as alleged)? 
I don't think so. As a short term trader I'm responsible. I'll forfeit my rights to make any claim for damages against MAH in this class action. 

I've had a few losses in MAH since then as the company restructured itself. I had a winning trade in 2017 along with the ASF Momentum Portfolio (+2.4R winner).


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## barney (3 August 2018)

peter2 said:


> I received notice of a class action against Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH) because I'm a group member. That is, I bought shares between the dates of the lawsuit.
> 
> So, I looked up my trade from 2012. Yeah, six years ago. The law system moves that slowly.
> You can see it in my chart. I pre-empted the BO of the ascending triangle (higher lows). The trade started well then hit a snag with a huge down day. I sold soon after for a small loss.
> ...




You played the "Kenny Rodgers" indicator to perfection Pete …. "Know when to hold 'em know when to fold 'em … well done


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## Miner (3 August 2018)

peter2 said:


> I received notice of a class action against Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH) because I'm a group member. That is, I bought shares between the dates of the lawsuit.
> 
> So, I looked up my trade from 2012. Yeah, six years ago. The law system moves that slowly.
> You can see it in my chart. I pre-empted the BO of the ascending triangle (higher lows). The trade started well then hit a snag with a huge down day. I sold soon after for a small loss.
> ...




Peter2 
An outstanding analytical prediction and an outstanding personal integrity.
Trustworthiness and Ethics are two essential virtues of life . Well said and done mate.


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## peter2 (4 August 2018)

Thanks guys.


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## barney (4 August 2018)

peter2 said:


> Thanks guys.
> 
> View attachment 88720



LOL …


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## Miner (4 October 2018)

Miner said:


> Peter2
> An outstanding analytical prediction and an outstanding personal integrity.
> Trustworthiness and Ethics are two essential virtues of life . Well said and done mate.



Peter2 et. al
Today MAH got a jail free card by settling the court case but the market did not punish or reward them yet.
Any clue?


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## debtfree (1 January 2020)

2020 Yearly Competition Pick .... just by viewing Monthly Charts. 
Maybe it's problems are over now, the last monthly bar has taken price to it's highest close in about 7 years. 
Consolidated over the last couple of years and is now pushing the bollinger bands apart as price goes higher. Certainly has plenty of room for price to go higher from here.


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## The Triangle (4 December 2022)

Nothing really that interesting going on here but I noticed that PRN and MAH trade at very different multiples to book value when you adjust for intangibles.  

PRN has a MC of about $765m for $1,322m in net assets ~ 0.58x 
MAH has a MC of about $345m for $559m in net assets ~ 0.61x

Strip out intangibles from the accounts:

PRN has a MC of about $765m for $670m in net assets ~ 1.14x 
MAH has a MC of about $345m for $543m in net assets ~ 0.63x

Also

PRN EPS: $0.057 @ $1.11 SP ~ 20x earnings
MAH EPS: $0.013 @ $0.16 SP ~ 12x earnings

PRN LT Debt to Equity ~ 66% (130% if you take out intangibles)
MAH LT Debt to Equity ~ 54% (55% if you take out intangibles) 

Any thoughts here?  Or are we just all racist investors? MAH is still to my knowledge nearly 50% owned by some Indonesian/Singapore based company - which I can understand spooks investors in Australia - however this is a pretty big difference in valuation.


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