# Saucer pattern/Rounding bottom stocks



## RichKid (29 December 2004)

This is a little venture that started out with a recent foray into DES Destra Corp:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=578&page=1&pp=10

Basically, I'm looking to post stocks here that fit the technical pattern for a reversal pattern know as a rounding bottom or saucer pattern. It's described in Edwards and Magee in clear terms (see Destra thread link above).

Basically only post charts which probably will fit the pattern or are very close to it. We wont know for sure so make a good call. Hence volume confirmation need not be perfect but is desirable (as in Destra). You'll need to zoom into a shorter time period sometimes to see the volume pattern. Strong or quickly improving fundamentals reduce our risk exposure even further.

We're basically trying to get in on stocks that are about to zoom up after completing a bottom reversal- hence not picking the bottom but picking the breakout. To state the obvious there's no point in posting stocks which have completed the pattern (except for illustrative purposes), as the 'easy' or low risk money has already been made.

I'm focussing on this pattern as it appears to be more predictable than other patterns (eg triangles). Only issue is finding the perfect candidates as the pattern is not that common and can be hard to spot while it's being formed, it's worth the effort if we keep an eye out. Look for breaks in downtrends and consolidations with drops in volume as prices stabilise. 

I am just experimenting with this at the moment so if someone has more expertise in this pattern please correct me.

Charts which illustrate what we're after appear in the next post:
Destra DES
Customers CUS


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

Here's Destra DES and Customers CUS.

DES, note the thinning out of vol towards the bottom of the saucer or bowl pattern- basically the price (and vol) ends up like the outline of a bowl. Called a saucer for same reason- often found in tiny mining stocks but harder to predict in that sector as prices just spike. In DES price consolidates and pierces resistance at 10.5c which would have been the entry signal with a tight stop if it fell below 10c. We normally enter once vol picks up.

CUS This is not the classical round shape but note the vol drop in Aug/Sep and corresponding fall to support in sp. Note the break in the downtrend and consolidation in September. Followed by breakout from resistance at 7c (trigger to enter), then consolidation and commencement of the upswing. Stoploss would have been at 6.5c. Fundamentally CUS had just started revamping its business and there was news of this available- further confirming the 'turnaround' and reducing risk. (CUS hit 14c today)

Note that in both these charts the crucial period is after the break in the downtrend when it is consolidating and about to rise. If volume has picked up then we should prepare for entry IMO.

GP posted a chart in the Destra thread showing another bottom formation- worth a look. Let's see if we can help each other with these ones and find some ripe stocks to pick some profits off. Hope you can join this one GP as you were interested in the DES thread. Please be very selective with candidates but there's no harm in suggesting a stock that we can all have look at to analyze.


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## tech/a (29 December 2004)

Rich.

Like any chart pattern there are 3 outcomes.
(1) Nothing.
(2) Positive price action.
(3) Negative price action.

Here are 6 charts I used as examples about a year ago in a discussion.
2 flew to add 100% to initial capital.
2 failed.
1 I cant find maybe delisted?
1 did little.

Best thing to do is simply set a stop and trade the pattern.
From what Ive seen if it doesnt go on with making new highs after the initial high is made then it wont get going at all.
So to have a bigger than 5% of purchase price stop is pointless.

If you have better than 50/50 result then your indeed LUCKY.

Ill leave you to look up the charts and see how they have performed Sorry I didnt take a pik of the months.

Only loaded 5 as thats the max.


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

Hi Tech,
Thanks very much for the charts, based on the tactics I mentioned those particular charts would have been good (the majority of them anyhow). Again, if we were really trading those more info (eg volume and general info on co) would have helped decide whether to enter. I'll take a closer look at the detailed history of your charts later to see what I can learn about the BR (bottom reversal) pattern. 

Basically I'd set a profit target and compare that to the pattern to see if it's achievable. With these types of patterns even 50% success is great (as you mention) as they really fly, hence my liking for the pattern. My target is 33% return with min risk to return of 1:3 for the individual stock I set my stops very tight, usually near the support/resistance that triggered the breakout (entry signal).

 Main issue is to only trade the more reliable 'classical' patterns- as your small selection shows they are the more reliable ones. Still more research to do. Hopefully we'll see a few posts on stocks with emerging BR patterns so I can put my money where my mouth is rather than pretending to be an expert after looking at old charts!!

I note your observations about the first wave or high needing to be followed by another high- this is the crucial period and emphasises the need for profit targets and stop losses if the trend breaks suddenly. I also need to research elliott wave theory to see if the three step surge is common in this type of reversal, it becomes very important After the entry.

Thanks for the input, hope this keeps going. BTW do you have a link to that old thread/discussion you mentioned? Was it on bottom reversals specifically?


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## tech/a (29 December 2004)

Ive had a look but cant find it.

I only post on reefcap so must be under an obscure title!

You really need to buy "The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns"
give yourself an Xmas present.

You can also download a whole tutorial on Elliot wave from their site.Its very good but you can only dowload a chapter a day and there are 28 of them!!

You have to log in and get bombarded with their advertising.
I really wonder why would you need to send countless emails to sell your product to prospective clients.

Wouldnt word of the success of your trading methodology preceed any advertising.
While Elliot is very interesting it is also just another entry and exit selection method which can and will fail as often as it succeeds (if we are lucky).

tech


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

Hi Tech,
THanks for looking for the old thread, I'll see if I can locate it on Reefcap even though I don't subscribe to it, might be worth the search for me...

I have heard about the book you mention, must look it up sometime, thanks for telling me- had a quick look on Amazon for it: 
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 
by Thomas N. Bulkowski   about US$55

It has some figures about failure rates etc but I don't think I'll go into that much detail, it'll probably help me recognize patterns quicker.

I must download the Elliott wave stuff, I've heard it can be fairly arbitrary but it's good for general knowledge and who knows it may help. Thanks for the warning about the site, obviously it's not as fool proof a system as they'd wish. I'd seen the tutorial before but hadn't bothered to look into it.

If you find any candidates for this thread let me know and us TA novices and wizards can take stabs at creating a good trading system for this bottom reversal pattern.


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## GreatPig (29 December 2004)

The only ones I've noticed recently are half a rounded bottom in Strathfield (SRA) and a sort-of rounded bottom in Century (CYA).

Cheers,
GP


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## tech/a (29 December 2004)

Actually nicely rounded bottoms in G strings are the best patterns in my veiw!!


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Actually nicely rounded bottoms in G strings are the best patterns in my veiw!!




That's one pattern that is easy to recognize- now settle down Tech!! What is it about that word that gets people excited??!!


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> The only ones I've noticed recently are half a rounded bottom in Strathfield (SRA) and a sort-of rounded bottom in Century (CYA).
> Cheers,
> GP




Hi,
Thanks very much for the charts GP:

SRA looked good (I used 2yr ohlc daily chart which framed the price action a bit better), not the perfect candidate but close enough for our purposes. Unfortunately we missed the breakout at 15c in June, we would have stopped out and re-entered in August but that's old news now. It may rise further but we've missed most of the 'easy money' ) (or quick, short term trade for high return 30%+)- ie the more predictable stage with better risk to reward ratios. Some may argue once it rises it is more likely to keep rising but that would mean looking at different patterns and entering for different reasons (it looks good for longtermers, congratulations if you bought earlier). So if we'd seen this one earlier we would Most Probably have got into it as the returns were great in a short space of time and it fitted the RB pattern.

As for CYA, best looked at on a 1yr daily OHLC chart first imo. CYA now at $1, looks okay but to get to a min of $1.30 (for a 30% min return) it'll really have to get a move on, next resistance is at $1.05. I'm looking at its short history and increasing but still minimal volume and thinking it may take too long. Volume has picked up a bit which is favourable but overall it appears as though it may range trade, I'm just not sure about this one. Strong fundamentals may help here but I don't see any in the announcements, looks like one of those lazy listed investment co's. A longer sp history may have yielded more patterns to work with in terms of a price target. but the timing would otherwise be perfect for this one as it has just broken resistance and has closed above it a few times on higher recent volume (ie $1 is now support).

Other opinions? When in doubt I stay out!! (I might just remember that last line...)

Lets keep looking folks and I'm sure we'll find a good one to get into (if we decide to- remember this thread is not a tip sheet, just an exercise in TA, you'll have to decide individually whether to put our money in).


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## RichKid (30 December 2004)

Okay, here's one that I'm in MRX Matrix Metals (didn't notice the reversal patterns till now- my original reason for entry is in Jan tipping comp thread). I know this sounds like I'm plugging my own stock but because the price is stable anyone can enter so I don't have an advantage (same occurred with DES, see thread referred to in first post).

CHART 1 (top chart). You can see the classic reversal pattern occurred in 2002/2003. False 'breakout' surge in February 2002 corresponds to E&M observations in their book. Only issue was the near dissapearance of volume didn't occur at middle of turn. Resistance at about 5.5c, finally broken in September 2003 with a recent increase in volume. Stop would have been at 5c. If we'd set our profit target at 30% we would have exited prematurely but there was always the opportunity to re-enter on confirmation of trend.
Another flag (?) or triangle pattern in Nov '03-Jan'04- classic bull pattern would have helped with possible re-entry or continuation if we'd let profits run instead of exiting at 30%, perhaps steep rises should encourage us to lift trailing stops tightly rather than sticking to initial profit target.

CHART 2. Now for the recent price action: Break in downtrend in late Nov '04 on volume. (Nov also saw a compact symmetrical triangle). If we zoom out now and look at the big picture the 'rounding' starts around June '04 and curvature goes atypically (not a classic pattern like the one above) upto Dec '04. We can either wait for confirmation of breakout from resistance at 12c or buy in at 10.5c, with stoploss at 9.9c (5.7% loss). Next major resistance for upward move is 16c (52% profit) once 12c is broken, look for volume as prices have already started moving up from the lows of the last few months. Three or four week time frame before real action IMO as the BFS annoucement is expected then but prices may rise in anticipation (especially if co insiders start buying) hence reason for entry now- also longish queues to get in at 10.5c. Minimum profit target is 30%. If pattern coming through strongly may let it run.

So there it is, what are your opinions? I'm already in the stock so you can all see how I do. Fingers crossed and my stops are being watched. Any comments welcome, any one else in MRX? For same reasons?


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## RichKid (6 January 2005)

Okay, been a bit busy so haven't been able to go through all of Tech's old charts, also looking at Elliott wave atm to see if it might give some clues as to trading the breakout pattern. This might take awhile, any technical comments on Tech's old charts are welcome re saucer patterns. Some obviously aren't textbook examples as Tech suggests, so it's not as easy to predict. I'm still looking for low risk, emerging rounding bottom stocks on the ASX, let me know if anyone sees a genuine candidate as discussed at start of this thread.


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## theblip (7 January 2005)

Would ERG fall into this category?

If you look at the chart below, there was a period of low volume at about between Sept and Nov. Looks like it'll have to break a resistance of 0.35c before it will go anywhere though.


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## RichKid (8 January 2005)

Yes, doesn't seem to be a rounding bottom if volume is anything to go by. Downtrend is broken though and seems to be range trading/consolidating. Might be worth checking resistance breaks on volume for breakout signals, but it could go lower too. No point in trying to pick the bottom. Not a candidate for our strategy imo. Thanks for posting it.


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## RichKid (12 January 2005)

Okay, MRX has broken through the flag pattern on strong volume, let's see how it goes at close of trade, this week is looking good, lots of depth too on the buying side. It needs to get to 13c minimum to give me confidence this week.


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## RichKid (12 January 2005)

Okay end of day, very high volume (about 21m) but price has settled on of upper boundary of flag. LOTS OF DEPTH on both sides though, so it's just a matter of time. I thought it may have been another week before things started but looks like the market has got an early whiff of things to come.


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## RichKid (13 January 2005)

Well, well, well, there goes the stop and the candidate. Time to search for another one. Poor BFS result sees it marked down. Easy come, easy go. Let's see if someone tries to take this one over at these prices. Might be another tech opportunity....


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## RichKid (18 January 2005)

CUE is completing a nice saucer bottom, downtrend broken, slowly rising after disappearance of volume, approaching resistance at 35c- looks like a break above it on volume will be the trigger. F/A suggest market is waiting on estimate from appraisal work with Santos.


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## RichKid (18 January 2005)

Just realised this- an even lower risk entry was at breakout from 28c at first stage of saucer on about 5Jan05 (see long candle). Missed it completely on the chart, must be more watchful next time as it was a clear signal.


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## RichKid (20 January 2005)

CUE has some news. Buys into a field in New Zealand, let's see what the market thinks.


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## RichKid (22 January 2005)

CUE flared up on very high volume, new news from Jeruk, final results yet to be known but looking positive, hopefully next week will see an update. Oyong shows further upside potential and will support stock for this year imo. Support 29/30c and resistance 35c (big range). Obviously the market is very sensitive to the near term Jeruk estimate.


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## doctorj (22 January 2005)

Would have been nice to notice the breakout on 30/12, but like you I missed it.


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## tech/a (22 January 2005)

Found it on 30/12 but traded it another way no relation to Cup and Handle

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum48/HTML/000024-2.html


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## doctorj (22 January 2005)

Yea, I'm a long time lurker around the traps and was enjoying that thread before it petered out.  

Trading spec stocks is certainly a lot more fun and gives me something to do while tending to the longer holds.  How did you go in finding a way to successfully trade speccies mechanically?


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## tech/a (22 January 2005)

Think Ill revive a trading short term speccie thread here seems more are involved.Reef died (That thread) I think as thats all Im trading short term, which have become medium!,and no one else joined in with their trades.


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## doctorj (22 January 2005)

I'll definately join in.  Starting a new position on Monday, but I should be able to make time.


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## RichKid (23 January 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Found it on 30/12 but traded it another way no relation to Cup and Handle
> 
> http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum48/HTML/000024-2.html




The completion of this move is what is on my mind now, may be a handle or may end up falling back to 25c. A lot hanging on that Jeruk estimate.


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## RichKid (24 January 2005)

Nice vol pickup again, seems to foreshadow an annoucement- currently in trading halt pending release. Let's see what it is, maybe an estimate of when work will be completed. Santos hasn't released any definite dates. CUE still ranging between 30 and 35c. Looking a bit roundish, will have to watch carefully to make sure this doesn't reverse. Lots of black candles.

.....Ok last quarter Activities report is what it is.


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## RichKid (26 January 2005)

Okay, 3D seismic from SANTOS is the next major news to expect. Wont be much happening for a few months. Let's see if this pattern is a rounding turn and if prices will settle lower. Still can't close above 35c. I'm bearish short term but this is a very volatile stock so I'm watching that price level. Pattern may be a handle about to develop.


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## RichKid (27 January 2005)

CUE in trading halt, wonder what it is this time. Last one was a placement. Maybe another one before the sp falls away or maybe just another deal, don't know of any exploration results or the like that are pending release. Anyone have a clue as to what it may be? We may know by the end of the day (or Monday).



> 27 January 2005
> CUE ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED
> TRADING HALT
> The securities of Cue Energy Resources Limited (the “Company”) will be
> ...


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## RichKid (31 January 2005)

> 31 Jan 2005  9.23AM
> 
> Share Placement
> The shareholders of Cue Energy authorized a placement of up 100 million ordinary shares at the Annual General Meeting of the Company held on 26 November 2004.
> ...




Well, if the last placement was anything to go buy prices should dip below 30 before long, maybe to 28c. But who know may go further or just hang around above 30. No trading yet and I don't have live feeds so I can't see the depth live.


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## RichKid (9 February 2005)

Looks like that's the end of the saucer pattern attempt for CUE, not even a cup and handle judging by this fall. Looks like it's searching for support at 25c, minor rounding top completed.

Anyone see other candidates for this thread? (see the first few posts for criteria). 

Btw, I've rejected RRS (Range Resources) as it has broken the rounding bottom trend line and looks like it's going down or sideways.


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## canny (9 March 2005)

Rich Kid - I've just done a quick price and volume search, looking at the daily charts for a 'rough' emerging saucer pattern.
Have a look at these and let me know if they may be in the zone? I particularly dislike management of a couple of these - but that's irrelevant - we're looking for an upward trending pattern that hasn't gone too far, or is only just starting.
ASC, CUO, ERG, PNO, TAS, TIR


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## RichKid (9 March 2005)

canny said:
			
		

> Rich Kid - I've just done a quick price and volume search, looking at the daily charts for a 'rough' emerging saucer pattern.
> Have a look at these and let me know if they may be in the zone? I particularly dislike management of a couple of these - but that's irrelevant - we're looking for an upward trending pattern that hasn't gone too far, or is only just starting.
> ASC, CUO, ERG, PNO, TAS, TIR




Thanks Canny! Just quickly from memory (and the ERG thread) I doubt ERG qualifies, it's really rare to find a typical pattern. But once you do success is far more likely than for most other patterns- very reliable (as far as TA goes anyway). I think Tech picked PNO for last months tipping comp, a breakout stock.
Will check out the others soon, just a bit tied up atm. If you have charts feel free to post as it's quicker to pick em that way. I'm messing around with some free charting software off Incrediblecharts.com but it's a bit of a pain to post accurately. Also, go carefully through this thread to see if each one meets the criteria. I'm a beginner in TA so constructive criticism is more than welcome.

PS Be careful to distinguish bw parabolic uptrends and saucer bottoms, they are different imo- the latter is defined more strictly (look for volume pattern and 'lid' to saucer to use as resistance/breakout level).


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## RichKid (10 March 2005)

Hi Canny,
I've checked the other stocks you mentioned. Not even close unfortunately, not worth a second look imho for this thread. Please see the first two pages of this thread for some example charts, they are hard to pick but not that hard! (If you're in any of those stocks you mentioned or want to be, then good luck with it).


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## RichKid (24 June 2005)

D'oh!!! Missed CUE, had an eye on it but just missed it recently. I think I need to do much more research on this pattern and try to trade it technically, my mind was biased by looking at the oil price and it's effect on CUE. Oh well, good experience.


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## GreatPig (1 November 2005)

RichKid,

As per your request in the other thread, here are a couple of rounded bottoms I bought into that failed (or at least didn't go very far).

With MMX I sold after it dropped through my bottom line.

With PEM I avoided selling after the first drop at the end of the triangle, but then sold on the retreat shortly afterwards - a couple of days before it bottomed out. While it is currently higher than then, it hasn't really done anything spectacular.

QAD I've posted before, and while it subsequently rose again after I sold, when I look at the shallow saucer, I calculate its target at around 6.3 or 6.4 cents, which is about where it peaked just before I sold. So I don't consider that one a failure as such.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (1 November 2005)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> RichKid,
> 
> As per your request in the other thread, here are a couple of rounded bottoms I bought into that failed (or at least didn't go very far).
> 
> ...




Hi GP, 
Thanks for that, some well spotted patterns, I love studying these! Mainly because of the high reward for successful patterns. One thing that's missing that I personally love to see for confirmation is volume- but I'm just a newbie and I've heard some people don't even look at volume. What's also interesting is the different formations after reaching the right lip. When I say 'you' here I mean the hypothetical trader. I'm trying to imagine (pretend) that I'm looking at part of the chart in real time without seeing the action to the right of the chart.

The genius of hindsight:
In the first chart, MMX, if you were a conservative trader you'd have bought on a bullish breach of the triangle- which means entry would not have been triggerred. In fact personally I may have been stopped out at about breakeven or maybe not even enered as it ran so fast early that the risk/reward would have blown out- has happened to me before, prices then just give me the cold shoulder and scoot away upwards! Perhaps a higher risk strategy wih these things is to bet very small and buy on the first swing up off the pivot with a wide stop- not my style but an option, don't think it's a profitable tactic on its own. 

PEM- a conservative entry via the pennant/triangle would have seen you being stopped out imo. I've been watching PEM and it doesn't seem to have the classic vol pattern, I see it more as a traditional support/resistance play now. Again my lines may be drawn different to yours so my entry and risk calculations would be different. I think PEM may have much more upside left.

QAD looks the same in terms of conservative entry. You would have missed out on some profit by waiting for better confirmation but that would have meant risking less and winning less. My measurement for minimum target would have been difficult, would have depended on which saucer I chose to enter, there would have been a few different resistance levels to look at- familiar problem with this type of messy, complex saucer imo.

Of course there is no indication of where you entered so all this is academic as you may have had a better risk reward combination. All in all those look like great charts to me, again we seem to see different support/resistance levels and depending on liquidity and volume/depth some of us may not even have entered (and hence missed out on profits) but I think it's a valid and highly profitable pattern (as opposed to something like a H&S which is just a joke in terms of reliability). I like to take more than one bite at high reward patterns like this. What's hard is keeping the risk low while finding adequate entry/stop levels- a lot depends on how we define the support/resistance levels and whether we want to be aggressive or conservative.

All that goes to show that we can be looking at the same pattern and recognising it for what it is (in the TA theory books) but trading it completely differently due to some of the factors mentioned above.

Eitherway if we'd both taken the trades above we may have ended up with similar outcomes. What do you think? Have you had similar experiences?


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## GreatPig (2 November 2005)

RichKid said:
			
		

> there is no indication of where you entered



With PEM and QAD, I entered near the right-hand edge of the saucer (12/8 for PEM and 24/8 for QAD). For PEM I made a 1.5 cent loss. For QAD, a 0.8 cent gain (the loss on PEM was larger than the gain on QAD dollar-wise).

With MMX I made multiple trades, as indicated in the attached chart. With the first sale, I made a moderate profit (about $2.5K). After the second two sales, I ended up with a small profit (about $290).

So while I think MMX turned into a failure as a rounded bottom pattern, I still managed to trade it for a profit.

If only I could always be that lucky 



> Eitherway if we'd both taken the trades above we may have ended up with similar outcomes.



Possibly, but I'm sure everyone has different ideas about ideal entry and exit points for these sorts of patterns, so your trades would likely have been totally different to mine.

With something like MMX, where there's no obvious run up out of the pattern (except for those couple of gap days leading into the triangle, but they were short and sweet), it would have been very easy to trade it differently and make a loss. In this case, I think my choice of trades being successful was more due to good fortune than skillful selection. If I did the same thing again a few times, I would quite possibly make a loss each time.

Cheers,
GP


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## Kauri (3 November 2005)

Entered LEI on a developing saucer/cup pattern, but it seems it may have fallen in a hole.        ( 25 Oct. at $14.50 )


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## GreatPig (3 November 2005)

Kauri,

I don't think it's finished the saucer pattern yet. The current price of $14.88 is still within the saucer by my chart.

Also, this is a saucer during an uptrend, so I don't know how well the theory holds. I gather saucers are supposed to be rounded "bottoms", implying a trend reversal.

Cheers,
GP


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## Kauri (3 November 2005)

Great Pig..
                Some saucers/rounding bottoms do occur at the bottom of a trend and signal a reversal, but a lot also occur in an uptrend as a consolidation pattern and can signal a continuation of the trend. My preferred method of trading a saucer is to enter on the upside leg, exit on the first sign of retracement after it has broken through the lip, see if it becomes a cup by forming a handle, if it does then I re-enter on the break of the top of handle pattern.
               My comment on LEI falling in a hole was tongue in cheek.. re Lane Cove.


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## Kauri (3 November 2005)

Sorry, posted wrong chart.    

  This is LEI. The first cup/handle formed in an uptrend from $7 to $13.
   The current *potential *   cup/handle has formed in an uptrend from $10 to $15.


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## tarnor (3 November 2005)

IOH count?

hold at 1.00


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## RichKid (3 November 2005)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Kauri,
> 
> Also, this is a saucer during an uptrend, so I don't know how well the theory holds. I gather saucers are supposed to be rounded "bottoms", implying a trend reversal.
> 
> ...




Edwards and Magee classify it as bottom reversal pattern and I find that to be the safest but since they're rare I have been weak and trade them at other times too- but I have not stats for that, just logic. Generally the longer it takes the stronger I'd say the signals. I also like the methodical classification system used by E&M btw, easier to study and apply that way.


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## RichKid (3 November 2005)

tarnor said:
			
		

> IOH count?
> 
> hold at 1.00




Hey Tarnor,
Don't think so from the chart you posted imo more like something else. See the first few posts in this thread for more detail on what to look for from a theoretical perspective. I like GP's and Kauri's examples, try to match it to those. Otherwise you can post IOH in the breakouts thread, although strictly they should be breakouts to new highs. Let's keep searching for more, plenty of room for all to enter.


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## Kauri (4 November 2005)

UGL


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## Kauri (4 November 2005)

or QGC


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## Kauri (4 November 2005)

maybe MTT


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## Kauri (4 November 2005)

and for something totally different.  NUF


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## RichKid (6 November 2005)

FAR has been spotted by Kauri too in this thread. Entry set up may still be on.


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## GreatPig (7 November 2005)

FKP looks like it's forming a small saucer now.

Maybe that dude will be able to buy himself another $5m boat soon 

And HST seems to be getting there too (I hold this one).

Cheers,
GP


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## Kauri (8 November 2005)

Apart from rounding bottoms/saucers/cups.. rounding tops can be traded too.  Not so many of them as you need to be able to short them so only available via cfd on top 200-300.


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## Kauri (9 November 2005)

Is the UGL saucer/cup flagging


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## doctorj (9 November 2005)

You're a machine!

How many charts do you eyeball each day to find these?


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## Kauri (9 November 2005)

doctorj said:
			
		

> You're a machine!
> 
> How many charts do you eyeball each day to find these?




   only the ones 
   a) that average $100,000 a day over 20 days 
   b) and also have only 3 letters in their ASX code.
   Only post a few so as not to clutter up Joe's server...


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## Kauri (11 November 2005)

LEI has finally made it to the lip.. will watch for a potential handle..


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## Richard Willoughby (13 November 2005)

Just started looking at tech analysis, so take no notice of anything i say.....
MRL seems to have formed an inverse head and shoulders with bigger lows,   macd crossed zero line, volume up, rsi indicating overbrought May retrace a bit? My downtrend line definitely broken. Interested in anyones comments..


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## Kauri (16 November 2005)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Entered LEI on a developing saucer/cup pattern, but it seems it may have fallen in a hole.  ( 25 Oct. at $14.50 )




   May have forgotten to form a handle  :fu:  I'm not complaining though.


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## Kauri (16 November 2005)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Is the UGL saucer/cup flagging




    Falling back now, but was a good quick trade..


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## yogi-in-oz (16 November 2005)

SSN ..... a monster rounding bottom ..... 1994 - 2005 +

happy days

  yogi


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## Kauri (17 November 2005)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Entered LEI on a developing saucer/cup pattern, but it seems it may have fallen in a hole.  ( 25 Oct. at $14.50 )




    Exited my DMA CFD's (10% down) at ave of $16.65 today. Held for 22 days, after commission and interest is showing a bit better than 130%. ( Exited by my trading rule to sell on first down day after breaking through rim of saucer/cup) May be a tad premature but LEI can fall as quickly as it rises.   

 Oooops, its hit $16.80 as I write!!!!


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## TheAnalyst (17 November 2005)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> SSN ..... a monster rounding bottom ..... 1994 - 2005 +
> 
> happy days
> 
> yogi



Thats a long time to wait


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## RichKid (18 November 2005)

This is not addressed to anyone in particular: I'm getting a bit concerned that if we just change the scaling of the chart or do some fancy editing that most charts can be made to look like a rounding bottom/saucer bottom. Please try to be selective folks, generally things are fine but I'm always concerned in case we get carried away and leave the standard pattern and its variations for something completely different (with the inherent risks of seeing false patterns which don't really qualify).


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## GreatPig (21 November 2005)

Another large rounding bottom on ITD.

Cheers,
GP

[I hold]


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## RichKid (21 November 2005)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Another large rounding bottom on ITD.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP
> ...




Looks nice GP, appears to have one more congestion area to get through if it is to shoot through.


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## Kauri (22 November 2005)

QGC is on the verge of breaking out of the handle...


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## yogi-in-oz (10 January 2006)

Hi folks,

SSN ..... remember that chart with the huge rounding bottom,
posted on 16112005, in this thread ..... ???

Well, this may just be enough good fundamental news, to
send SSN into the start of a blow-off top ..... 

SSN ... and more news out today, after the bell ..... 

Has bought into more Wyoming production ... !~!

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... holding SSN.


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## Kauri (25 October 2006)

ABS..  potentially shaping up


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## Kauri (25 October 2006)

COH..  may retreat to form a handle.. or not


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## Kauri (25 October 2006)

CSR...may get there.. not looking likely at the moment


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## Kauri (25 October 2006)

RHC..  might make a handle.. or not


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## Kauri (20 November 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> COH.. may retreat to form a handle.. or not




    As per post/chart 70 this thread, nearly there for a possible entry..


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## RichKid (20 November 2006)

Hi Kauri

Thanks for those charts, they look like cup and handles as continuation patterns. I believe they are more powerful as a basing pattern where they act to reverse the trend (from my reading of Edwards and Magee's take on saucer bottoms). We could argue though that a sideways consolidation is a 'trend' of some sort but that is probably not accurate. But as a short term bullish pattern in a consolidation they look alright, I take it you view these as such?

I like the look of RHC if it can hold that handle, imo CSR is going to correct in and ABC style EW zigzag or possible double bottom, it's still playing out so I'll just watch.

I think the extended basing formation is what is safest but you seem to have spotted and entered these early so you get to pyramid as well- good stuff.

I think I'm seeing some sort of rounding formation in TLS but it's too early to tell. I'm looking for volume to taper off here as we retest the lows and then another pick up in volume and price, it will take time, several months imho- only half the picture so far.


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## Kauri (20 November 2006)

Hi Rk,
All the charts bar the last one of COH were posted a month back, have updated the rest in their own threads. RHC is trying my patience at the moment, I trade CFD's and the constant up/down antics without going anywhere is starting to eat away the gains in interest. And ABS ran away and I missed it.. I think I posted a TLS chart the other day, I see a rounding developing too (Minchin uplift).
Saucers/rounding bottoms I find most often as bases but C/H's I find occur a lot as consolidations in trends, quite often tying in with ABC's.
I don't actually pyramid in as such, I use the AIM spreadsheet to exit with the sell safe at 5% with the buy basically disabled, and all cash invested on first purchase i.e no cash reserve. I buy back up to the initial value manually at my pyramid points. Its as close as I'll ever come to averaging down.  I also use a manually calculated exit/stop loss. Not as spectacular as the original AIM but a lot safer and more suited to my trading comfort zone. 
Cheers... Kauri


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## Kauri (22 November 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> As per post/chart 70 this thread, nearly there for a possible entry..




And topped up @ 54.82   COH


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