# Trading the XJO with CFDs



## Uncle Festivus

I'm doing some research into intraminute trading of the XJO via IG Markets Mini 200 & thought I would post this chart with a couple of fib studies. Amazing how it all lines up. Can anybody with experience here in ta tell me if they are drawn correctly?. I managed to jagg it & got on a short trade at 5742, after the 3 uplegs from 5700, each with reduced range and finally the small double top, not to mention it was a record high.


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Both look good to me...

The 50% retr. of the major range is telling, and bullish in my interpretation.


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Yes, still learning. Probably should have put a limit order in at 5690 to close the trade. How reliable is fib generally?. Though, the dow looks vulnerable with reporting season so we may not have seen the end of steep plunges?. The Plunge Protection Team will be kept busy


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

UF, all probably apply Fibonacci a little differently.  I use it as a measure of where support occurs during a retracement, just as you have done with your XJO chart above.  The number of times that price finds support/resistance at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% is uncanny.  In fact it occurs too frequently to be useful on it's own.  You still need to base entries and exits on a trend following technique (form reading, moving averages, trendlines etc.).


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## SevenFX

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hey Uncle,

Just learning here 2, (disclaimer)

Here's my Take. imo

We should see the full fib extension of 5797 based on strong 50% retracemnt in chart...

Would it also be benifical to use the 7 & 21 ma for short timeframes such as this, suggesting when 2 take long/short positions

Cheers
SevenFX


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Here's the close of trade 10 min intraday chart today with some trend lines. Still in the short trade pending US financial news at 10am their time (tonight).


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Here's the close of trade 10 min intraday chart today with some trend lines. Still in the short trade pending US financial news at 10am their time (tonight).




Hi Festivus

But have you had any continual wins using those tick charts to trade?


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Guys

I am looking to start trading the ig xjo cash index soon but i do notice that sometimes it's way out.

But most of the time its up more which anit a bad thing!

I also trade options over it on Sanford any one else doing this??


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> Hi Festivus
> 
> But have you had any continual wins using those tick charts to trade?




Hi trade it,
As it is a bullish trend with a minor & major trend channel it is reasonably predictable to get in & out of trades, as shown on the hourly chart. I use fibonacci to confirm. 

As for IG data, I think it is based on the underlying SFE futures contract, so it will be different to the ASX XJO value, but fairly close.

Good luck


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Hi trade it,
> As it is a bullish trend with a minor & major trend channel it is reasonably predictable to get in & out of trades, as shown on the hourly chart. I use fibonacci to confirm.
> 
> As for IG data, I think it is based on the underlying SFE futures contract, so it will be different to the ASX XJO value, but fairly close.
> 
> Good luck




Uncle Festivus,

On the same trend in the chart I got in at 5525 with 2 call options using my xao chart on Bourse.

what i want to do is try to use this chart to pick the entry and go long on the $25 contract, but i may only look to do this on the weekly not the daliy as mis timing will add up in $25 ticks!

tell you i have just made over 3000K as of today but on the same trade with one contract on the 200cash i would have 5k plus! major difference. (am i being greedy?)

your fib analysis looks very ingesting i currently don't use that.


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Good work TI, so are you trading both ways ie short & long, or running with the bull? Got to watch those $25 ticks, wipe you out if they go the wrong way. (Got burnt doing a 500 lot once, much more wary these days  )


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Good work TI, so are you trading both ways ie short & long, or running with the bull?. Got to watch those $25 ticks, wipe you out if they go the wrong way. (Got burnt doing a 500 lot once, much more wary these days  )




first i have to say, every time i see that avatar i laugh, all i can hear is serenity now! serenity now! from Sienfield if you are thinking what's he on about!

I am running with bull mate follow the trend till it breaks I used to try and play swings but i am now getting over the high stress and concentration required to sit and watch that much.

after our next correction i will look at starting a new idea of opening two trades at once one to follow on the weekly and other to follow the daily break away trend. ( if that is well used I am not claiming it as my own!)

I have always been very interested in trading the xjo. CUZ IT HAS NO GAPS!!!

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Resilience of this market is amazing. Coming up to ex-div month so if left to it's own devices should continue to make records until at least march, then maybe the run down to 'sell in may  go away' syndrome kicks in. The big x-factor is how much will the commodities correction spill over to the rest of the market, and if the US continues on it's claytons bull run. The volume for the Dow is just not there lately, suggesting 'correction' in big flashing lights.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Good work TI, so are you trading both ways ie short & long, or running with the bull? Got to watch those $25 ticks, wipe you out if they go the wrong way. (Got burnt doing a 500 lot once, much more wary these days  )




first time i traded the ticks in ig i was totally sure i pull nice 5-10 tick trades well i learn t the hard way about the spread and how fast it goes and then comes back in your favor!

i was saying yay nay every couple of minutes!

i did get caught on the wrong side once and kissed a nice peiece of capital good bye in 3 hours! they love jumping trend lines hey UF


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> first time i traded the ticks in ig i was totally sure i pull nice 5-10 tick trades well i learn t the hard way about the spread and how fast it goes and then comes back in your favor!
> 
> i was saying yay nay every couple of minutes!
> 
> i did get caught on the wrong side once and kissed a nice peiece of capital good bye in 3 hours! they love jumping trend lines hey UF




TI I hope you were on the right side of this gap up today. Updated charts below. I still don't like the way the Dow is shaping up, & the XJO for that matter. Head & shoulders pattern with decreasing volume for the Dow since the last major high?.

XJO has hit the upper trend line of the minor channel uptrend and pulled back accordingly, looking for a retracement/consolidation from here?.

Retracement levels = 5875 or 5835?


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

UF,

I agree with what your saying about weakness creeping in on the DOW.

But the DOW does love to break resistance lines when it looks weak.

I also think we are could see a correction on the Xao / xjo as well.

I have lightened my cfd contract sizes in case of this.

none of the above is any kind of recommendation or advice to trade from, it's just my humble opinion.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



> TI I hope you were on the right side of this gap up today.




Yes UF I was on the right side!

I am still holding two march call options on the XJO in Sanford,

I am still going to hold tight till it breaks it short term trend line.

you had any good play's of late?


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

I'm going short at these levels again, pretty solid gains so far this week, so looking for a correction from record highs.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> I'm going short at these levels again, pretty solid gains so far this week, so looking for a correction from record highs.




well that is backed by a interesting thing today on sanford the xjo options numbers went like this:

 Calls Traded 2238  	*Puts Traded* *8217*   	Put/Call Ratio 3.67


now that is saying somthing, I wonder why so many people buying puts...........


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Uncle Festivus

have you been making any trades over the ausie200?

did you get a short down on the drop?

i am waiting for the weekly xjo to show a solid rise with volume over my MA then its all a board!

i noticed if you had your stop just under the trend on the 2 year daily chart on IG then you would have been stopped and missed the carriage of the following days thats a plus of trading a 24/4 index!


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

HI Trade_It
I was actually sitting on a loosing short position when the correction occurred, but made that up and then some. Went long yesterday morning but closed out too soon & shorted again too soon again. I will have to refine my TA a bit, but then again, we'll see how the US goes tonight  

I think it may struggle to gain from here as the fibonacci retracement has made a few attempts to get past my 50% retracement level & failed. 
I notice the FTSE is trying to get passed a 38.3% level tonight also, & also struggling. Very interesting night tonight & Friday night in the US with employment report due on Friday night.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

well done on your short and your long plus your short will being turning out well now!

I had a great day on Tuesday made a packet from a couple of slick day trades but yesterday I gave a heap back! messed up three trades it was very choppy yesterday and i kept getting caught on the wrong side!

So that reinforces my idea not to day trade, Sometimes I crave action and get a little to smart for my own good!

I am still waiting for this selling to finish then jump back in.

God those $25 pts add up quick when your on the wrong side.


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## nat

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

hi trade it agree on the 25 $ a point bit ,i opened a futures account did a few trades and quickly found out couldnt handle, it so back to the cmc aussie 200 at 1 to 2 $ a point for some more practise,Nathan


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				nat said:
			
		

> hi trade it agree on the 25 $ a point bit ,i opened a futures account did a few trades and quickly found out couldnt handle, it so back to the cmc aussie 200 at 1 to 2 $ a point for some more practise,Nathan




Nat I have had a few confidence smashes given to me from the ig index it really adds up quick! when i get shot down i buy a few minis around 10 -15 a point


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Uncle Festivus 

I am now thinking things are looking good on the bull side, also starting to think that this correction my be over a lot of buying confidence in the market.

may go long next week see how it looks on the weekly middle of next week

what is your thoughts on this?


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

hi trade it,
Actually I'm thinking the exact opposite. The market looks confused this morning and should be powering ahead as it usually takes it's lead from Wall St, which had a pretty good night, along with commodities.

If the market doesn't get a footing today after these leads then it's back to the bears. The US is getting spooked with sub-prime carnage spilling over to the rest of the market. The 11o'clock synchronized computer orders are going through now, wait & see if it gets beaten back with the bear stick?

UF


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> hi trade it,
> Actually I'm thinking the exact opposite. The market looks confused this morning and should be powering ahead as it usually takes it's lead from Wall St, which had a pretty good night, along with commodities.
> 
> If the market doesn't get a footing today after these leads then it's back to the bears. The US is getting spooked with sub-prime carnage spilling over to the rest of the market. The 11o'clock synchronized computer orders are going through now, wait & see if it gets beaten back with the bear stick?
> 
> UF




UF

You make some very good points there.

We are weak this morning but I never make trades from morning session.

Wait to see what the feeling is 30 min before close.

Jobless data could be a pin in my balloon tonight. Will see if what I feel is happening actually does happen, middle of next week.

Did u get out of that short early you were holding over night?


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

TI, no, still hanging in there, but getting close to my stop


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## mikeg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi Trade it,

I notice you use IG markets to trade the Aussie 200. Could you tell me if you  have been having any trouble getting the 1 minute chart in recent times?


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				mikeg said:
			
		

> Hi Trade it,
> 
> I notice you use IG markets to trade the Aussie 200. Could you tell me if you  have been having any trouble getting the 1 minute chart in recent times?




There was a problem with the advanced tick charts a few days ago. Not that crazy about having to have that window open to keep the chart up as well.

But in last day I have not had any problems.


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## mikeg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



> Not that crazy about having to have that window open to keep the chart up as well




Yes, I agree. Don't like not being able to only have 1 chart open at a time.

I have been having a lot of trouble lately with Charts freezing for a while, and today can't get the 1 minute chart.


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				mikeg said:
			
		

> Hi Trade it,
> 
> I notice you use IG markets to trade the Aussie 200. Could you tell me if you  have been having any trouble getting the 1 minute chart in recent times?




hi mikeg,
I'm having trouble too, cant get 3,2, or 1 min charts, can only get 5 min. I think they might still be fine tuning the new charts??


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## mikeg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi Uncle,

Yes, they seem to be having alot of trouble with them lately.

I am using the other platform at the moment, can get the 1 minute but very patchy. 

Just closed my long from this morning, market looking a bit unsure of direction at the moment.


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## Kauri

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Took a while but we got a reaction to the 5-% retacement line.


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Not looking too good Kauri?. Something fishy happening today. Market should be all bulls but looking like a stampede for the exits. We will have to see how it holds going into the close, but XJO just turned negative; see if this entices some bargain hunters. If not, look out below. Very skittish banking sector eg CBA today.

PS where do you get your intraday data for QT?


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## Kauri

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Not looking too good Kauri?. Something fishy happening today. Market should be all bulls but looking like a stampede for the exits. We will have to see how it holds going into the close, but XJO just turned negative; see if this entices some bargain hunters. If not, look out below. Very skittish banking sector eg CBA today.
> 
> PS where do you get your intraday data for QT?




  Yes, the vol hasn't been there backing up this rally, ,,,data from Pestpac


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

oh oh oh 

Here come the sellers!

No wait just found some buyer support back in the green.

Very weak run to finish line at this point.


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## caribean

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi everyone, we've got NFP & US trade balance coming out together tonight.
It should be very interesting as i haven't seen these major fundamentals come out together before.....my guess we going down to 5400ish soon or at least 5520ish.
But you should not listen to me as i'm not a financial adviser 
Oh, by the way what are the spreads like with IG do you trade the real market?


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				caribean said:
			
		

> Hi everyone, we've got NFP & US trade balance coming out together tonight.
> It should be very interesting as i haven't seen these major fundamentals come out together before.....my guess we going down to 5400ish soon or at least 5520ish.
> But you should not listen to me as i'm not a financial adviser
> Oh, by the way what are the spreads like with IG do you trade the real market?




Hello caribean, An especially weak employment report will encourage talk of recession, while a strong report could revive concern over new rate hikes.  

While technically a market maker, IG still supply the underlying market spreads as if you were trading the real market.


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

An interesting day that was!. Well co-ordinated & consistent selling pressure at programmed intervals by the looks of it. 

Also, in what could be shaping up as a fairly consistent trade for the last two weeks now is the Friday afternoon purge between physical market close & CFD market close at 4:30. A similar morning set-up too with a rally then the selling throughout the day. I think the bears got the edge in the end after a bit of window dressing by the bulls at the close, with the ASX20 in the negative, and banks getting a hiding.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Guys a little work in progess of mine see attached chart.

Now I have put in a way a use to see what is happening but this is pie in the sky I don't trade off it. I started doing this then I saw it was just like Gann angles so I copied Gann with out even knowing it! I called it my break out/break down strategy. First line shows break out = possible short trem trade. Second line = main direction. third = overall move only use on dropping stocks on major corrections.

It's hard to explain these lines in words but in my head I know what it means but its far from usable yet.

Here goes: 

On breakdown I put in first resistance line + top resistance line as where I think the correction may travel during its course.

Once first resistance is broken with a few rises I add the trend with a second posible rise line that will form a triangle with top resistance.

Second resistance (middle) I use to see whether new rally has any strength.


I want to see price stay above bottom line and move to end of triangle and rise out to really tell me to go long.

I know that was rough but please all let me know what you think.

Short term bullish but it is weakening posible drop, over all still bullish till base trend broken.   

*these are just my ideas of tracking price through a correction*


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hello TI,
I'm not sure how you derived your sloping resistance lines. Are these just arbitrary lines as I don't follow your reasoning. 

As far as the Oz market, it's a perenial bull untill the super money dries up, & thats not going to happen till maybe July when the baby boomers start withdrawing tax free.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Thats all good UF.

Did not think the way I explained it would make any sense and like I mentioned it is just me mucking about!

Thanks for the info on asx super.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

UF
How are things going?

Hope you have been going long mate.

I am sitting on a real nice winner, now waiting for weekly confrontation then I will add on to this trade   

Looks like we could be back at 6000+ very soon on IG Aussie200 cash!!


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## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Following your thread closely fellas, just got IG markets this week. 

Looks like it may be a while before i try and trade anything but shares though, gotta get a feel for this. Please keep posting, its helping a great deal.

Cheers,


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Following your thread closely fellas, just got IG markets this week.
> 
> Looks like it may be a while before i try and trade anything but shares though, gotta get a feel for this. Please keep posting, its helping a great deal.
> 
> Cheers,




Hi CanOz how r u?

I'm Joseph

great to see your interest. I have been with IG since last year and had major probs with there tick charts but the new charts are much better.

I use Bourse data for all my share & XJO decisions. 

Right now I am holding 1x Aussie200 contract 1 x Wall street cash both doing great. plus added CSL x 100 to the mix today but got it late in the day.

i am still trying to get a complete understanding of how they work out there overnight prices.

I am also looking at Pacific Continental they offer CFD's over the actual XJO and DOW only open during there market hours 

keep in post!


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

hey man forgot to add that.

trading the indexs on IG are very fast paced make sure you really study then before you trade them sick to the minis at the start $25 a poit really adds up quick!!


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## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> hey man forgot to add that.
> 
> trading the indexs on IG are very fast paced make sure you really study then before you trade them sick to the minis at the start $25 a poit really adds up quick!!




Yeah i gathered that, just happy to trade shares CFD's atm but very keen to see if there are opportunities to be had.

Thanks for the info and advice, keep it coming please!

Cheers,


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

CanOz

How long have you been trading CFD's what is you feeling towards them?

I also trade share CFD's a lot but sick to the top ASX200 shares.

Are you using a controlled risk account? the Garented stops are so dam wide that it is hardly worth using them one I placed had to be 400 points a four buck drop would wipe your position out anyway but spose in a crash it may be helpful!

What do you think of IG's spread?


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi TI & Canaussiuck,
Seeing how we are all learning here, just thought I'd run my current IG markets mini 200 $5 position sizing strategy with you for comments. It's working fairly good in these conditions.
Entry criteria not discussed, only position size and stop loss strategy.

First, I determine my maximum position size my funds allow me too (my maximum I allow for trading risk), which is currently 20 contracts. 

Next, allocate/divide this to entry levels eg open the first position with 5 contracts, set stop level 5 points away - setting the stop at order entry makes you disciplined so as to not let losing positions get out of hand. Now if entry was correct, open second position of 5 at 5 points away, and adjust the first position stop loss to initial open price (break even). 

Continue 5 X 5 & adjusting stops for next 10 points and contracts till max position obtained (20) or exit criteria is met. Each time adjusting stops of previous open positions to 5 points away from current open position, so that if/when the last position is opened the first position is 10 points in the money (ITM), the second is 5 points ITM etc. Then, reset stops every 5 points away from then on, let profits run with tight stops or close on exit criteria.

The most you are exposed to lose is $125, but pyramiding in to gain.

Use at your own risk


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## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Hi TI & Canaussiuck,
> Seeing how we are all learning here, just thought I'd run my current IG markets mini 200 $5 position sizing strategy with you for comments. It's working fairly good in these conditions.
> Entry criteria not discussed, only position size and stop loss strategy.
> 
> First, I determine my maximum position size my funds allow me too (my maximum I allow for trading risk), which is currently 20 contracts.
> 
> Next, allocate/divide this to entry levels eg open the first position with 5 contracts, set stop level 5 points away - setting the stop at order entry makes you disciplined so as to not let losing positions get out of hand. Now if entry was correct, open second position of 5 at 5 points away, and adjust the first position stop loss to initial open price (break even).
> 
> Continue 5 X 5 & adjusting stops for next 10 points and contracts till max position obtained (20) or exit criteria is met. Each time adjusting stops of previous open positions to 5 points away from current open position, so that if/when the last position is opened the first position is 10 points in the money (ITM), the second is 5 points ITM etc. Then, reset stops every 5 points away from then on, let profits run with tight stops or close on exit criteria.
> 
> The most you are exposed to lose is $125, but pyramiding in to gain.
> 
> Use at your own risk




Firstly let me say that i have not yet begun trading any CFDs. I want to become more familiar with the platform first, then enter and exit a few trades using only CFDs for stocks. 

To answer TI's questions, it is a controlled risk account that i have, yes. I have noticed that the stops can be quite wide, as i tried placing a few trades without the funds available to see how it calculates the minimum stop values. 

The spreads seem fine to me on stocks, better than Market Maker, at least on shares, but i need to do more trials first. What is your experience with them so far on stocks and indices? 

UF - your stops are they GSL or standard?  I get the feeling your stops are standard, other wise you wouldn't get a 5 point minimum? Have eitheror of you traded gold,oil or other commods yet?

Keep the posts coming please, as i value your experiences. Thanks guys.

Cheers,


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> UF - your stops are they GSL or standard?  I get the feeling your stops are standard, other wise you wouldn't get a 5 point minimum? Have eitheror of you traded gold,oil or other commods yet?
> 
> Keep the posts coming please, as i value your experiences. Thanks guys.
> 
> Cheers,




Yes, standard account. The standard account also gives you the option of doing a controlled risk trade if you want, instead of being restricted to GSL account. 
I dabble in gold sometimes, but found that as the big moves are between midnight and 4am it was too risky, even with GSL's or controlled risk. Mind you, gold is highly leveraged eg every cent change equals a $1 so can be very profitable if you get it right. 
Another thing to be mindful of is that gold and oil etc are traded in other currencies so you will end up with a foreign currency account with IG if you do trade these. You will at some stage have to convert back to $AU at the prevailing IG conversion rate if you want $AU back.
Another instrument I regard as pure gambling is the binaries. I have a bet on the FTSE & Mini200 indices binaries sometimes. Good if the market starts with a big move in one direction & then ends up going the opposite direction the rest of the day. 
UF


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## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Another thing to be mindful of is that gold and oil etc are traded in other currencies so you will end up with a foreign currency account with IG if you do trade these. You will at some stage have to convert back to $AU at the prevailing IG conversion rate if you want $AU back.





What are your thoughts on hedging the position with a currency trade? Or could this add salt to a wound?

Cheers,


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## MoMoney

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

each personality will be different on how to trade CFD's.  They are such a new instrument that we are all pioneers.  
i have learnt that with my "rush into things", "bull out of a gate" personality that a trading plan and taking profits....fear is my friend, not greed, is my "style", that the old clique comes into play..."you cannot go broke taking a profit".
I know everyone is different, but for me, slow down, learn to/be patient, and treat CFD trading as a source of income.....be happy with a profit target of $1500 ^ a week
let my blue chip portfolio ride the bumps capital gains wise and pay divvies and let my speccie portfolio either die in the a$$ or return wicked results.
Writing call options with CFD trading keeps me more than comfortable


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## codeowl

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi there guys,
I have just started looking into the stock market... I got the opportunity to buy in on a private offer of an up and coming company that has a technology that will clean water.  This has opened my eyes to the Stock market.  I started researching it and buying money mag, etc... I saw an article on CFDs and then bought a book on them, Supercharge Your Trading With CFDs, by Jeff Cartridge, which I found to be a great read.  After reading that I started researching CFD Providers, I found:
CFDTools
which had some comparisons, and decided I wanted to go with the DMA model.  After a heap more research I thought that IG Markets looked good.  I then started researching charting and T/A techniques, also looking into software packages.  Which led me to groups and forums, which in turn led me here.  I am a real novice and have never traded before, the private offer I bought in on never went through a broker, just bought the shares straight off the company.  I have bought a heap of books that are coming in the mail, on everything from Trends to Options, and Warrants as I want to learn about all the main instruments... to know what is better to use for different circumstances.  So it is fantastic to come across threads like this.

Trade_It:
I saw your post where you said:
_"I have always been very interested in trading the xjo. CUZ IT HAS NO GAPS!!!"_
How do you mean it has no Gaps. is this the case with all indexes?

What are you guys using for charting software?
Incredible Charts?
AmiBroker?
MetaStock?

What kind of strategies do you use for finding entry/exit points and setting stops when trading CFDs?

I have a plan to do more research on T/A and get a good understanding of a number of tools to use, then find some software package that will help me to use the charts etc... then paper trade for a couple of months.. to try and refine a strategy, and then start off with a small account of say a couple grand with IG Markets.... and see how I go.

If any of you guys have some suggestions I would love to hear them.

Thanks for taking the time to read my post....

codeowl.


----------



## codeowl

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Trade_It, did you end up going any further with Pacific Continental? I had a look at their site and their software looks great.  They don't seem to be a listed company, I wonder how you would find out about their ability to pay up if there was a crash or something.  

Does anyone else here use Pacific Continental? 

code...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> What are your thoughts on hedging the position with a currency trade? Or could this add salt to a wound?
> 
> Cheers,




Not sure if is worth while as 

a) probably take up too much margin capital to hedge effectivly & 
b) the small variation in exchange rate (over the course of the trade) won't make a big difference to the profit/loss anyway, assuming CFD trades are short term eg max of 1 week maybe at most?.
c) just another thing to keep an eye on/take up time. I try to keep the number of open positions to a  manageable number.

UF


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



codeowl said:


> What kind of strategies do you use for finding entry/exit points and setting stops when trading CFDs?
> 
> I have a plan to do more research on T/A and get a good understanding of a number of tools to use, then find some software package that will help me to use the charts etc... then paper trade for a couple of months.. to try and refine a strategy, and then start off with a small account of say a couple grand with IG Markets.... and see how I go.
> 
> If any of you guys have some suggestions I would love to hear them.
> 
> Thanks for taking the time to read my post....
> 
> codeowl.




hi codeowl,
Charting - intraday trading I use IG candlestick charts, investing longer term I use Bullcharts.
For positon size and stops see my post above?
Entry/exit - 5 min candlestick patterns, macd, RSI, market 'mood', instinct/gut feeling?
TA - start with candlestick & work your way up to Elliot or Gann (then you can argue with the rest of them?)?
You probably need $5k minimum to trade effectively?
I'd suggest to start with IG L1 platfrom with controlled risk trades

UF


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Not sure if is worth while as
> 
> a) probably take up too much margin capital to hedge effectivly &
> b) the small variation in exchange rate (over the course of the trade) won't make a big difference to the profit/loss anyway, assuming CFD trades are short term eg max of 1 week maybe at most?.
> c) just another thing to keep an eye on/take up time. I try to keep the number of open positions to a  manageable number.
> 
> UF




Yes, after i thought about it didn't make too much sense .

I guess i'm just thinking of ways to use two instruments together.

A longer term position in something like gold (long), and a longer term short on USD, you could do, if the trend was playing out that way, but which pair would be best?  

Just thinking out loud UF, I think i'm way out of my depth here.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



> Trade_It:
> I saw your post where you said:
> "I have always been very interested in trading the xjo. CUZ IT HAS NO GAPS!!!"
> How do you mean it has no Gaps. is this the case with all indexes?




Hi Codeowl

Now on Bourse the xjo and xao have no gaps on open they can't but on the Aussie cash 200 there can be gaps nothing like stocks but they are there.

Pacific do have a contract that is based 100% on the xjo from 10 -4 normal trading hours. It is market price x 5% for margin and market price x .1% for brokerage. you make 1$ a point per contract.

now the advantages of the aussie200, it has no brokerage (is included in margin)

also cuz in it just about 24hours you can get out of bad situations before aussie market opens.

the other month on CSL it looked great on the short side then next day opened up 6$ that scared me a lot cuz i saw all the puts bought on sanford day before owch! so gapps

Also Indexes in my opinion trend much more smoothly on a weekly chart.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



codeowl said:


> Trade_It, did you end up going any further with Pacific Continental? I had a look at their site and their software looks great.  They don't seem to be a listed company, I wonder how you would find out about their ability to pay up if there was a crash or something.
> 
> Does anyone else here use Pacific Continental?
> 
> code...





Yeh I just opened my account with them last friday and there platform is great, but they have a lack of indicator options compared to IG.

Also I found there margin is higher then IG MBL is 10% PC on IG 5%

I have not had a great look at there platform yet so can make much more of a comment then that.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

UF 

Great posts

I am looking to fine tune my pyramiding skills as it is great way to maximize your returns.

from what i just read you have a great formula.

I am not looking at the short term charts that much stick to the daily on IG and weekly on stocks.

I use MACD on IG with MA's plus triangles and support resistance, what do you make of Repulse indicator?

Gold and Oil, again there are advantages and disadvantages of the 24 hour markets, I have dabbled in them but with any future you have to have a good understanding of how it can move. i have been fooled many times thinking it will fall due to a move then it went straight back up. Had a couple of nice trades.

I need much more experience before I do it full time.

UF, totally agree with binary specials are real gambling never even looked at them.

I think the casino is much more fun then gambling on the market. at least there are lovely young ladies around to look at while you lose!

Great to see this topic is a live and well.


----------



## codeowl

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi there guys, thanks for the feedback!... my next shipment of books has arived today..  so I am gunna get stuck into them.  I will look back in on this forum often.

code.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> CanOz
> 
> How long have you been trading CFD's what is you feeling towards them?
> 
> I also trade share CFD's a lot but sick to the top ASX200 shares.
> 
> Are you using a controlled risk account? the Garented stops are so dam wide that it is hardly worth using them one I placed had to be 400 points a four buck drop would wipe your position out anyway but spose in a crash it may be helpful!
> 
> What do you think of IG's spread?




So far i've taken test trades on GOLD, OIL, and the ASX 200. The GOLD spreads are good, but oil is 5 points. 

Getting used to the platform now. I like the charting but it could use volume on more instruments.

Looking forward to shorting some stocks.

So far so good.

The XJO looks like it might be bullish after all, testing highs today, critical juncture now?

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> So far i've taken test trades on GOLD, OIL, and the ASX 200. The GOLD spreads are good, but oil is 5 points.
> 
> Getting used to the platform now. I like the charting but it could use volume on more instruments.
> 
> Looking forward to shorting some stocks.
> 
> So far so good.
> 
> The XJO looks like it might be bullish after all, testing highs today, critical juncture now?
> 
> Cheers,




Hate to toot my horn but i was bullish since the 15th it really showed it was doing something that day.

Have also added another mini aussie200 contract to the mix today. 

I agree not enough volume on the commodities i have a account with xpress trade futures they display open interest volume.

what i love about IG platform is it is so easy and user friendly.

I am totally bullish now as well, I am long ASX, CSL, RIO, WPL, Aussie200cash and Wallstreet cash mini.

*but the above are no recommendation!*

Happy trading guys!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> So far i've taken test trades on GOLD, OIL, and the ASX 200. The GOLD spreads are good, but oil is 5 points.
> 
> Getting used to the platform now. I like the charting but it could use volume on more instruments.
> 
> Looking forward to shorting some stocks.
> 
> So far so good.
> 
> The XJO looks like it might be bullish after all, testing highs today, critical juncture now?
> 
> Cheers,




CanOz

What indicators do u use on the ig AD charts?

Do u use Repulse?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> CanOz
> 
> What indicators do u use on the ig AD charts?
> 
> Do u use Repulse?




Fib, Support and Resistance lines, and occasional Stocastic.

Volume if its there.

Not too big on indicators.

What is "AD"?

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> Fib, Support and Resistance lines, and occasional Stocastic.
> 
> Volume if its there.
> 
> Not too big on indicators.
> 
> What is "AD"?
> 
> Cheers,




AD is just my lazy way of saying advanced tick chart!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> AD is just my lazy way of saying advanced tick chart!




I'm not game to short the XJO today, that mixed finish in the US and higher oil prices may give it some breath yet. What about you TI, UF?

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> I'm not game to short the XJO today, that mixed finish in the US and higher oil prices may give it some breath yet. What about you TI, UF?
> 
> Cheers,




As long as you have an entry, exit, & stop loss plan any market is tradable, up or down. If you feel comfortable going long then why feel uncomfortable going short?. It's just another trade. As to when to enter/exit is a different matter. I do short term shorts ie day trades, and am currently short the mini 200 today, after Monday Fund-day.  Lately it's been Tuesdays & Fridays to short, the rest to go long. Increasing negative news from the US might put a dampener on the local market this week - the bounce back looks to be too high too fast.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

UF,

I am always very interested in what you post, you make a very good point at the speed of this reversal.

When u look at it 90% of the reversal was made in couple of sessions with other days looking very unsure.

But I have been waiting for this to see what happens when it does weaken I am very interested to see if panic settles in.

But the DOW pulled back from just about 100 points down to finish 10 under so that does say some thing and that was on the back of very average news last night.

CanOz
Going short on the daily there is no evidence to support it, in my view.

But on a per tick or 1min, 2 min chart there can be lots of opportunities to go short using limit orders. But It's a fast game!

That is something I don't do very much.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> UF,
> 
> CanOz
> Going short on the daily there is no evidence to support it, in my view.
> 
> But on a per tick or 1min, 2 min chart there can be lots of opportunities to go short using limit orders. But It's a fast game!
> 
> That is something I don't do very much.
> 
> Cheers




Got to learn to pick these reversals. I suspect the Prof would be the one here. I've got to do some study on the SPI and how to trade it. I won't trade something until i feel confident.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> Got to learn to pick these reversals. I suspect the Prof would be the one here. I've got to do some study on the SPI and how to trade it. I won't trade something until i feel confident.
> 
> Cheers,




Ni Hao, CanOz

As you can see on the chart lots of fun to be had as long as you're fast, unemotional and not greedy.

I will tell you, At the moment I am not able to do it either gave it a shot and lost ten times more then I made on those intra day charts I much prefer to hook into daily and weekly trends.

But some guys on here do it well.

Aussie200 has made a steady recovery as of now.

Canaussieuck where in China are you, your working or on holiday?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

a real wall is being hit now at 6000 now time to think about differnt tatics maybe covering over dropping a position.

long way back to the trend line.

looking weak!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> Got to learn to pick these reversals. I suspect the Prof would be the one here. I've got to do some study on the SPI and how to trade it. I won't trade something until i feel confident.
> 
> Cheers,




I find 1 min chart to be too noisy - I use 5 min to see the trend better, maybe narrow in to 1 min for trade execution, then back to 5 min or even 10 min then. And set your stop when you enter the trade - take the emotion out of it.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> a real wall is being hit now at 6000 now time to think about differnt tatics maybe covering over dropping a position.
> 
> long way back to the trend line.
> 
> looking weak!





well the ressitence stuck and it fell UF and short action for you over night? I saw it rebounded very well after 4:30 that nearly tricked me into opening another but it just would not cross 6000 i was worried out and closed out, my dow contract same prob closed and did it fall.

well side lines again now


----------



## brendan87

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi everyone!
Just having a read of your forum and it looks like you lot are all genuinely interested in helping eachother learn and providing support for eachother - unlike some other topics on ASF  I myself am interested in CFD's but I haven't opened an account yet...just reading as much as I can first and getting to know tech analysis. I was tending towards IG markets because of the low min. trade size (good for starting off) and they seemed to be well priced and offer GSL. Any thoughts?

I have always tended to use the 'buy and hold' approach and fund. analysis so I'm trying to learn more about charts. I think CFDs are a good opportunity to take advantage of short-term trends and the ability to short on margin is attractive as well. Kinda (half) working on a trading plan but I think I'm going to learn as I go along anyway. Has anyone read Catherine Davey's books?? Having got one for X-mas I've had a look at her money management strategies which are pretty easy to follow and familairised myself with support/resistance/trends. Anyway, keep up the good discussion and hopefully I'll have more to contribute soon.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



brendan87 said:


> Hi everyone!
> Just having a read of your forum and it looks like you lot are all genuinely interested in helping eachother learn and providing support for eachother - unlike some other topics on ASF  I myself am interested in CFD's but I haven't opened an account yet...just reading as much as I can first and getting to know tech analysis. I was tending towards IG markets because of the low min. trade size (good for starting off) and they seemed to be well priced and offer GSL. Any thoughts?
> 
> I have always tended to use the 'buy and hold' approach and fund. analysis so I'm trying to learn more about charts. I think CFDs are a good opportunity to take advantage of short-term trends and the ability to short on margin is attractive as well. Kinda (half) working on a trading plan but I think I'm going to learn as I go along anyway. Has anyone read Catherine Davey's books?? Having got one for X-mas I've had a look at her money management strategies which are pretty easy to follow and familairised myself with support/resistance/trends. Anyway, keep up the good discussion and hopefully I'll have more to contribute soon.




Hi Brendan. I've just started trading CFD's with IG Markets as you probably read above. My advice would be to have a trading plan and very good understanding of postion sizing, setting stops etc. 

Although you can in theory trade smaller postions, you can still lose your capital ..fast. The spreads (difference between the actual price and thier price) vary from instrument to instrument. Stocks are DMA, and GOLD is a 1 pointer, but the indices and forex can really dig into your risk profile, making the trades unworthy of the risk. This it would seem, discourages short term players.

To me, the main advantage is the ability to be able to trade in most market conditions, that is to be able to go short and long on a range of instruments. This should enable a reasonably experienced trader to pick up some profits in various economic situations. It also gives you a feel for how commodities, and currencies trade and the extreme volitilaty associated with such a variable laden instrument (currency).

Just be careful and sensible and stick with what you know at first.

This is not for the faint hearted, some of these moves are pretty quick and could wipe out your trading account in minutes, or less. 

I use only the controller risk account, so i have GSL's on everything. I believe its a 'must' for someone just starting out. 

If you have never traded shares or are new to that then i wouldn't recommend trading CFD's until you develop your skills and a solid trading plan. Emotional control is paramount as well.

Hope this helps, i'm sure there are more that could give you a more experienced view, TI and UF for example have more experience with this than i do.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Aussie200 is in a interesting situation in a very tight band still have a bullish overview on it till it breaks bottom support.

still having world of trouble crossing 6000 so a wait for bounce of support or a strong break above 6000


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> Aussie200 is in a interesting situation in a very tight band still have a bullish overview on it till it breaks bottom support.
> 
> still having world of trouble crossing 6000 so a wait for bounce of support or a strong break above 6000




TI, Going by your chart, it's starting to look a bit bearish, with the inability to convincingly get past 6000. Notice the long candle wicks of the last 5 days or so, and the small body of the candle. As is typical of our market, there is money wanting to get back in to the market (bullish) but the US is sowing the seeds of doubt (bearish). The announcements out in the US for the rest of this week may disapoint also, as may quarterly earnings. Short term bearish ie next 3 days. Looks like failing again today too, long wick day, may finish in the red after DOW down 72 points. Ah well, the boys gave it their best shot this morning  

Market moving ann's

Tonight - Durable goods orders
Tomorrow - GDP
Friday night (start of next correction if bad?) - Consumer spending, Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment, Construction spending


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



brendan87 said:


> Hi everyone!
> Just having a read of your forum and it looks like you lot are all genuinely interested in helping eachother learn and providing support for eachother - unlike some other topics on ASF  I myself am interested in CFD's but I haven't opened an account yet...just reading as much as I can first and getting to know tech analysis. I was tending towards IG markets because of the low min. trade size (good for starting off) and they seemed to be well priced and offer GSL. Any thoughts?
> 
> I have always tended to use the 'buy and hold' approach and fund. analysis so I'm trying to learn more about charts. I think CFDs are a good opportunity to take advantage of short-term trends and the ability to short on margin is attractive as well. Kinda (half) working on a trading plan but I think I'm going to learn as I go along anyway. Has anyone read Catherine Davey's books?? Having got one for X-mas I've had a look at her money management strategies which are pretty easy to follow and familairised myself with support/resistance/trends. Anyway, keep up the good discussion and hopefully I'll have more to contribute soon.




Hi brendan87

Great to see more new faces, welcome to the world of CFD trading.

I don't not have any probs with IG find them very easy to use and there advanced charts are great but more volume would be nice. but I do use Bourse data for most my decisions.

CFD's
from what I have experienced.

entry is critical and I advise not taking large trades no matter how much cash you have avalible. First thing to get your head around is leverage and how it works for and against you. Remember what ever you stand to gain you stand to lose. Stops are a must and with CFD indexes stops are used as a strategy not just to set and forget i move mine a lot but the Aussie200 has long tails so you must beware of that or you will always get stopped out and still see the price move in your preconceived direction. It is a art in it's own.

But I can't stress enough that you must start with small positions when you first trade.

I had so many disasters with the Aussie200 and Gold and Oil due to I was putting to much on the line.

Now buying and holding on CFD's is posible in my opinion as long as the market is right. for example if you bought anything at the end of the correction last year and sold few weeks ago or not that would have worked fine.

But remember you are paying interest on long positions but it is not that much.

I myself trade on a weekly and daily time frame. but what time frame you use only you can decide.

From what I have seen intra day is very quick and you need a sharp eye.

Uncle Festivus  	
Trades on a Intra day level and would know a lot more information about it then I do. 

Good trading and feel free to ask or point out anything you see of feel about the Aussie200 or other CFD's. I am happy to help if I can.

Yes I agree with you other topics in ASF have really turned to running arguments which don't do much for anyone. I am talking about one section in particular.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

I've found that intraday trading is extremely difficult on the ASX200 generally, the only time I trade it is when the longer (daily) chart shows good trending action, if it is then I time my entry on the intraday timeframe. At the moment on the daily I have it just short of C=A and C=1.618*B. If she shows strong indications of breaking down into a larger corrective Wave C from here I will be looking to hop on, if not, I'll be waiting to see what develops and if it is tradable....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Kauri, I may be jumping the gun a bit but the market looks to be setting up for a 'compound' correction, where each day's weakness is further added to by the US market weakness. The XJO tried hard this morning but is getting hammered in the afternoon session, so if the US is down again overnight then watch out for tomorrow and especially Friday (Friday is 'out' day?) I think for resumption of correction. 1.618 fib level is ominous, as is failing to make the previous high 6050. Still holding my short 200 mini


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Kauri, I may be jumping the gun a bit but the market looks to be setting up for a 'compound' correction, where each day's weakness is further added to by the US market weakness. The XJO tried hard this morning but is getting hammered in the afternoon session, so if the US is down again overnight then watch out for tomorrow and especially Friday (Friday is 'out' day?) I think for resumption of correction. 1.618 fib level is ominous, as is failing to make the previous high 6050. Still holding my short 200 mini




   Hi UF,
           I've taken a short today anticipating the start of the Wave C corrective, (BIG computer problems at present so missed the first hour of the market   ). Have also brought the stop up on my 2 existing long DMA shares. Time will tell....  
            Cheers
                     Kauri


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Well you would have done well on that move down....that was quick. I was thinking there had to be some news or something to drive it lower that fast.

Thats got to be a bearish signal.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Is that a mini 200 short Kauri? Looks like a 1 o'clock fund dump. The danger is that they may be setting a bear trap for tomorrow. The hardest decision - when to close a profitable position or hold overnight for possible more bad economic news? A bird in the hand......


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Is that a mini 200 short Kauri? Looks like a 1 o'clock fund dump. The danger is that they may be setting a bear trap for tomorrow. The hardest decision - when to close a profitable position or hold overnight for possible more bad economic news? A bird in the hand......




Fund dump....does include the Hang Seng, the Nikkei, and Shanghai? They're all plummeting.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Is that a mini 200 short Kauri? Looks like a 1 o'clock fund dump. The danger is that they may be setting a bear trap for tomorrow. The hardest decision - when to close a profitable position or hold overnight for possible more bad economic news? A bird in the hand......




UF,
Short is on the IG ASX200, chart is actually the XJO chart, am having all sorts of computer troubles and that chart is easier to see currently. Wall St and Japan both dipping strongly on IG, tied in with the low vol XJO hi on Mon, the increasing vol close on lows Tues, and todays action looks ominous... for now anyway.. also at typical area for completion of Wave B of current correction..
Kauri


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

I see now. Kauri, is it hardware problems or software as I have trouble with java apps (IG platform) crashing sometimes too.

I'm at work  without access to java apps so flying blind today. Doesn't sound good at all, a general syncronised pullback today. Is it Shanghai leading again? Might hang on to the short afterall.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

failed badley at 6000

Now next big question is to short it over night.

UF you sound like you had some fun today. good it fell quick I saw the 2 min chart I also pulled out 50$ drinking money as well!

I am thinking of going short as things look ominous over DOW as well as XJO but a tight stop is in order I think.

CanOz
Do you want to become our China Information corespondent during the day, i hope its a yes!

Kauri,

Great chart you posted, your using wave? also is it hand drawn on the comp?


Guys I will tone down my outlook posts because I switch very quickly and I don't want to seem to directed in either way or influence any body, I can go from bearish to bullish in a period and vice versa, if what i see tells me too.

dropped all my Share CFD's RIO WPL CSL wishing i did not drop ASX now it bucked the sell off!

Good trading guys


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Well i'm long on Crude, short on WBC and the XJO at the moment.

Not too sure what caused the sell off in Asian markets, some news is reporting that its due to a poor consumer confid. report from the US. Goodness knows what caused the Shanghai sell off . I doubt it was a reaction to international economic data, they seem to react more to domestic concerns and rarely flinch on US data, insular bunch.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

CanOz, I'm not on oil but got the other 2  
Oil is the story at the moment, up to $65. If theres one thing to trash a bull market it's the threat of high oil prices! Gold next?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> CanOz, I'm not on oil but got the other 2
> Oil is the story at the moment, up to $65. If theres one thing to trash a bull market it's the threat of high oil prices! Gold next?




I'm a bit concerned about gold, the yen's on the move again.

Crude is very volitile at the moment, nervous lot they are. 

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

CanOz

Very well done!

OIL up and aussie200 down you must have had another good night! 

I could not find enough to merit a short trade so I stayed on the side lines.

Looks like the rebound has hit the skids.

I am most likely back to waiting for another rebound 6000 is a very strong resistance point.

My last trade on oil was at 54 then it went straight to 60+ then fell back to 57 and I bailed, I have noticed that oil is very volatile while it moves on its main trend as like most commodity futures.

Have attached Daily crude chart to show you what I mean, so many great pyramiding points. But that is still far far away for me.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

CanOz

Are you still holding your short?

I went long over the aussie200 with my support/stop at 5899

Trend still intact with a new support point.

See chart and I encourage all your for or against points.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

hooo hooooo

We are back testing 6000!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Interesting chart situation to look at there is a bullish channel for sure right now on the Aussie200

I went long yesterday morning and took profits at 4:20ish  

But i can see more entry's as long as it holds in this channel.

The support line is a Gann Angle, as you can see there is harmony between price and time.

Some possible directions that could occur.

*Also Dow broke 12500 and closed above it, so that is a great victory as well*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi TI,
Mmmmm, gone short today, got to 6090 on IG, couldn't resist


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Hi TI,
> Mmmmm, gone short today, got to 6090 on IG, couldn't resist




Hey How are you UF

Great move I looked at the 5min Chart and that was a class move it dropped real fast.

I am out of the market for now waiting for next entry of support.

You could make some good plays on that time frame working between the channel lines.(as long as they stick)

I am out of the intraday stuff now just trading the Daily and 4hour charts. Due to a few ass kickings and work requirments! (mostly due to the first reason!)

Did you catch that support break on Monday? Jeez it dropped fast!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

What a morning went long twice and 2 great stops! Lucky they were tight or I would have undone heaps of good work from this & last week! 

Jeez I was bluffed this morning!  

UF u pull any shorts?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi TI,
Broke even this morn, now gone long (6138, see 10 min IG candle chart) for the arvo with tight stop.
See how we go. (Don't argue with the Bull )
UF


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hey UF,

I know how that long may have gone.

A lot like mine!

It really fell over this afternoon I am back waiting for it to return to it's line or produce a solid swing.

Looking for the 7 point (if it happens) where ever it it hits. So I am just going to wait it out now.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi TI,
I missed out on Friday with the longs, got stopped out twice (by one point the second time ) but then promptly went through the roof Friday night & today. Doh!
However, I'm thinking the market is getting a bit tired, & is getting close to the 8 week cycle turning point, and the hourly macd is telling me that these advances are either running out of steam or just getting ready for a big advance breakout.
As usual, a couple of interesting day's with the US data this week.
As per Frank D's post, may be time for short or sideline?

UF


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

UF,

Same thing happened to me it kept looking like bouncing back but never did.

I am on the sidelines till it pulls back to the trend line, having some fun in other markets while i wait.

Yeh I hate when it does that to you, races down touches your stop and runs straight back up!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Looks like a sell off is in action

dow looks ominous as well right now 70pts down so could be a red day in new york.

I am not complaining as long as it does not crash though my lines, I am waiting on another entry.

Trend started on a very volatile note so this will be a good test of players overall mentality.

Lets see if it turns into a red roller coaster.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

It will be interesting to see how the US plays out tonight. As i posted in another thread, they can manipulate thier own market, but they can't manipulate the greenback!

Got my shorts ready, but not game to put them on.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Waiting on the IGxjo see what pans out not playing any shorts on the four hour chart.

Dow has creeped back from 70 down a real smashing tonight could send us though the line.

Now on the US I am long on the aussie against the us now but i see the aussie is weaker across the board.

Failed to break trend so I will ride it out.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Really confused as what to make of this right now my eyes say side ways to a drop.

But the dow looks strong with a positive influence and push on our weakness.

But I still see some resistence formed and the trend looking like its not moving up any more, more sidways. So I am well en truly neutral.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> Really confused as what to make of this right now my eyes say side ways to a drop.
> 
> But the dow looks strong with a positive influence and push on our weakness.
> 
> But I still see some resistence formed and the trend looking like its not moving up any more, more sidways. So I am well en truly neutral.




Can you access IG at the moment TI? I can't.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> Can you access IG at the moment TI? I can't.
> 
> Cheers,




I am in at the moment things working fine.

Try giving them a call Canaussieuck.

I have been online since 6ish melb time.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

CanOz

How did u go with IG?

Things still looking unstable in current price location.

Looking for a return back to 45degree line to justify another long entry.

I have maped out some of my previous trades on a daily to show where i see things taking off from and trend reversal is all the support lines.

top shows resistance lines with possible retracments.

What are your thoughts on my fibb retracment placement, do you guys mark the 100% on the support or tail?

**two other gann lines have saved out of line no idea why this happens, they should be a touch closer to price.**


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Good evening other IG xjo traders,

Short term:

Weakness has creped in weight has really started to stack up, forming a sideways band finding support at first fib retracement. Two short term possibilities I can see for this trend. Follow the line of resistence and once it breaks its support + trend line a descending triangle could be confirmed. A break of the resistance with a bounce of trend line and break of minor to major resistance confirm second setup of a ascending triangle.

I know may is now a matter of days away and we all know what that means. RED RED RED yeh yeh.

From how I trade and to my rules, as long as it finds support and continues to travel on its 45 degree angle I am long. Once it breaks that line I am looking for a new break out on the long side after any corrections or side way bands.

Good trading.


----------



## yonnie

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

hi folks,

a good thread here.

I would like to hedge my long portfolio with a stop sell order for a CFD ASX200. So if ASX200 trades at 6250 just sit there with a sell stop order about 3% lower @ 6060.
Now I dont think IG would actually sell something in the underlying market when the market tanks and it comes down to 6060 and my order becomes a market order. So would IG be at the other side of my trade?
In that case I would be afraid that in a fast moving market
my fill price would be simply awful, because IG would be inclined ofcourse to give me a lower price than the underlying market to protect their position.
What do you guys think how this scenario will work out?

thanks


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hmmm, not sure how it will work out as far as IG's concerned. If they want to cover more for a trade they'll increase the spread. Unfortuneatly i've got a meeting at 8:15 and won't see the action. The mini is sitting on S1 calculated from the daily pivot (6290), after this i've got S2 at 6229.

Trade IT will no doubt have a go at a short if he's around and he uses IG, maybe UF will too.

Can't wait to see what happens.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



yonnie said:


> hi folks,
> 
> a good thread here.
> 
> I would like to hedge my long portfolio with a stop sell order for a CFD ASX200. So if ASX200 trades at 6250 just sit there with a sell stop order about 3% lower @ 6060.
> Now I dont think IG would actually sell something in the underlying market when the market tanks and it comes down to 6060 and my order becomes a market order. So would IG be at the other side of my trade?
> In that case I would be afraid that in a fast moving market
> my fill price would be simply awful, because IG would be inclined ofcourse to give me a lower price than the underlying market to protect their position.
> What do you guys think how this scenario will work out?
> 
> thanks




Not sure I exactly understand what you want to do but as IG are market makers (if you are using the L1 platform) then your stop will be filled at the mid price ie usually 1 point below your stop. As I havn't had the experience of a fast market gapping through my stop I don't know how IG would handle it, though past experience would indicate your order would go through pretty close to your stop.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

morning boys,

just got back from china this morning.

damn it's a circus at customs!

will check out whats happening and try to add some thing worth while later!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> morning boys,
> 
> just got back from china this morning.
> 
> damn it's a circus at customs!
> 
> will check out whats happening and try to add some thing worth while later!




When you get some time TI, send me a PM about your impressions of the trip to China!

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

It looks like another sideways channel for a while for the XJO I think, although there is a sign that having fallen into the lower channel of the uptrend since the last correction it may be running out of steam ie the angle of advance is moderating. Nicely bounced off top of channel (6370) in early trade this morning. 

Positives - RIO & BHP game continues.
             - retailers on a roll

Negatives - banks going ex div.   
              - retailers may blow off top

Any comments?


----------



## yonnie

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

thanks can and uncle for your comments


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hello Hello,

Things are interesting on the IGXJO,

I am neutral at the moment but leaning more towards the correction side. but that is my personal opinion not what i see on the chart.

look at this trend so far (NOV06 - now) so amazing! the strength and drive money making heaven!

This trend is really churning well at the moment missed the 7 point entry cuz i was in china that was a bummer! o well!

now back in the same situation waiting for it to retest its line of price and time harmony at the trend line.

bull side,
very strong trend making new highs and still shows strength, trend line has hardly been tested just touched.

Bear side,
this last push from point 7 ran out of steam very quickly is that a sign of a buyer shortage?

current price action
as UF said, sideways band forming but I find no real prob there cuz it has as much support as resistance, it is currently in a unstable price angle and returning to its 45 degree harmony point.

I am looking for its 9 point on the trend to renter. (If it holds!) 

Please see chart


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

update...........

Today further weakness creped in even though we had a last minute rally which did give the bulls some more ammo.

Still staying in this range but as you can see we are retesting the support any fall in the dow tonight should give it enough reason the break that minor support line.

Overall for this trend I am still bullish untill it breaks though it 45 degree P&T harmony line, that is the main trend line on the chart.

if it bounces of it again for a 9 point It's another long.

as i said in last post this last rally of the line looked rather flat and ran out of steam very quickly.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> update...........
> 
> Today further weakness creped in even though we had a last minute rally which did give the bulls some more ammo.
> 
> Still staying in this range but as you can see we are retesting the support any fall in the dow tonight should give it enough reason the break that minor support line.
> 
> Overall for this trend I am still bullish untill it breaks though it 45 degree P&T harmony line, that is the main trend line on the chart.
> 
> if it bounces of it again for a 9 point It's another long.
> 
> as i said in last post this last rally of the line looked rather flat and ran out of steam very quickly.




Well i'm short, and staying short until i get stopped out at 6336...should be safe to sleep tonite.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Can you would have had a roller coaster night did the SP spike like the dow?

I would have been heart in mouth if i was short the dow over 100 points up at one stage! yikes!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> Can you would have had a roller coaster night did the SP spike like the dow?
> 
> I would have been heart in mouth if i was short the dow over 100 points up at one stage! yikes!




I had a short on the ASX200, but i had my stop too tight, at the pivot point, and i almost changed it to S1 beforei logged off, i should have as it didn't quite make it before it reversed.

Think i'll just watch for a while and wait for a better entry...this sideways stuff is a bit too 'unresolved' for my liking.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

looking like another long will be opened!

braking resistance now.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> looking like another long will be opened!
> 
> braking resistance now.




Indeed, theres no stopping these bulls!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



CanOz said:


> Indeed, theres no stopping these bulls!




tell you the truth Can I think i will sit this one out it does not 100% meet what I look for in a new entry and I just have a bad feeling about this but maybe i am being dumb


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

XJO,

more selling took hold today. with a stronger lead from wall st.

i am thinking fear and uncertain minds are worrying.

chart is showing a break of the last short term bull run with major resistence at 6400 minor resistence at 6300.

buyers have found a minor support level at the 23% fibb retracement.

two higher closes with minor resistence have formed a very small bullish continuation. i do not put to much into it.

3 touch resistance confirms short term downward direction. which lines up with support at just above 6200 making a desending triangle, if confirmed next level of support is found just above 6100 which is the 38% retracement of current uptrend starting March.

I am more inclined to see the descending triangle be confirmed.

I am not in this market at all looking for the descending trend line to be broken, before any longs taken. 

See chart


----------



## reece55

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi Trade it.....

Made a tidy sum today in short from the open on the XJO - fell far further than even I initially suspected..... Nervous hands are at play and I closed my only open long today on the ASX at a loss today....

Personally, I am looking for a fall to 6100, seems logical..... From there, I will re-assess......

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



reece55 said:


> Hi Trade it.....
> 
> Made a tidy sum today in short from the open on the XJO - fell far further than even I initially suspected..... Nervous hands are at play and I closed my only open long today on the ASX at a loss today....
> 
> Personally, I am looking for a fall to 6100, seems logical..... From there, I will re-assess......
> 
> Cheers
> Reece




Well done Reece55,
Yes, the weakness evident was surprising and the flat finish in the XJO didn't seem to tell the full story of the market today I think - some pretty solid selling was going on here.
Feel free to join the CFD chatters group on Yahoo Chat; just add the following contact to your list and then join the CFD day traders conference if you like to chat about CFD's between 10-4.

unclefestivus
at
yahoo
dot
com
dot
au

Uncle Festivus


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

where is the May bogey man? we only have 2 days left! someone better let him know! 

well,

Bulls came back out in force today XJO buying was right up with a finish more then the all ords in points.

other market observations, XJO put option buyers out numbered the calls 3:1, some may say more red to come other may think sell off now over. CSL & MBL in the same boat.

what r your opinions on that? (WayneL?)

XJO chart.

minor resistence broken as of today, added a Gann line new trend I will look to follow. as for now 23% fibb has stuck as support. once price has broken downward reistence line i will look to go long with stops under the Gann line.

Gann line will become new support and trend line I will follow till broken.

I am still bearish on the short term until price can break and hold over resistance line.

see chart.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

I am bringing this thread back to life, as I have seen there are a few members interested in swing, day and overnight trading the IGxjo.

anyone that is trading, paper trading or just thinking of trading this MM index post your charts and thoughts about it. 

my thoughts on today,

well after the cash injection into the dow Friday night there could be a reason to see a rally, I am looking to go long wont make my mind up until 3-30 this afternoon.

here is the current IGXJO chart. I must say it's rather messy comparing to the actual XJO chart.

you can see the depth it dropped to on Friday night as the dow futures went to -200. could see a nervous open this morning to a strong finish.

currently its got 24 point lead on the xjo so it may drop on the first 10 min to correct.

good trading


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Hi TI, i had actually calculated the weekly pivots and was going to post them this morning for anyone interested. Unfortunatly i left them at home. I'll post them tonite on this thread...they'll be from the SPI though.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> here is the current IGXJO chart. I must say it's rather messy comparing to the actual XJO chart.
> 
> you can see the depth it dropped to on Friday night as the dow futures went to -200. could see a nervous open this morning to a strong finish.
> 
> currently its got 24 point lead on the xjo so it may drop on the first 10 min to correct.
> 
> good trading






CanOz said:


> Hi TI, i had actually calculated the weekly pivots and was going to post them this morning for anyone interested. Unfortunatly i left them at home. I'll post them tonite on this thread...they'll be from the SPI though.
> 
> Cheers,




guys You do know that this is linked to the SPI tick for tick not the cash XJO.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



trembling Hand said:


> guys You do know that this is linked to the SPI tick for tick not the cash XJO.




IG told me different TH.

XJO during the day with their fair value added to it based on the SPI at night.

Aussie forwards is the spi.

from there words.


Can 

by all means post the points.

Looking like a long play so far


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> IG told me different TH.
> 
> XJO during the day with their fair value added to it based on the SPI at night.
> 
> Aussie forwards is the spi.
> 
> from there words.




CMC says the same but watching the spi all day I know that CMC pegs their Aussie200 to the Bid or Ask of the SPI but set at an arbitrary level. If you can get live SPI data from SFE you can see the way these ASX200 CFDs follow the SPI tick for tick which will be fine as the ASX 200 follows the SPI mostly give or take a point or two. 

They have the same times as the SPI rather than the ASX. It would also seem a lot easier for them. If they tracked the ASX200 and something Big went into a trading halt There is potential to profit on the ASX inefficient price where that will not/should not happen on the SPI.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



trembling Hand said:


> CMC says the same but watching the spi all day I know that CMC pegs their Aussie200 to the Bid or Ask of the SPI but set at an arbitrary level. If you can get live SPI data from SFE you can see the way these ASX200 CFDs follow the SPI tick for tick which will be fine as the ASX 200 follows the SPI mostly give or take a point or two.
> 
> They have the same times as the SPI rather than the ASX. It would also seem a lot easier for them. If they tracked the ASX200 and something Big went into a trading halt There is potential to profit on the ASX inefficient price where that will not/should not happen on the SPI.




I hear what your saying TH, I am not to sure about CMC I made one trade with them last year and then closed my account right after. It was a long on PPT and their prices looked 30-40 cents different form Sanford securities, I was very angry about it. I called CMC and they just did the old run around trick. I have heard bad things about them from many different sources. I personally think the famous market maker is rubbish, and I don't trust there market depth quotes after the problem I had. I am also very suspicious on the motives of there 3% margin rate. smaller the margin the quicker you out on a massive gap!

IG, 

I have IG open during the day and I have Sanford securities open as well. Sanford is a share & options broker, not a CFD platform. On open the IG xjo price and xjo are normally off a touch, but they reconnect very quickly. they were point for point yesterday but at night it separates.

But during the day the SPI is the XJO am I right? not the same value though.

Good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

I made a trade on the IGxjo yesterday,

Bought 1 mini at 5991, closed 6113.5 

Main reasons:

XJO on daily made a higher low, Dow failed to break support on friday night, I could see a swing coming

this was a swing trade short term looking to make 100-200 point max. 

Last night for what ever reasons the IG xjo rallied like wild with the us futures at 10.40 roughly I saw I was up by 122 points and I decided to take profits. was in my target area of 100-200 points

I have closed the trade, here is the lucky part, DOW gave all of its lead back and just finished under by three points, so last night I had luck on my side. even though today we will rally its still a profitable trade, my main point is if you get a gift sometimes it's best to take it there are many more oppertunities out there. I can not say for certain this is a new trend out of the sell off. So I took my gift.

Now I am looking to renter on a new higher low as long as the next weakness does not retrace and close more then 61.8 % of were this rally gets too. or break support.

As Wavepicker has stated, if this new rally fails to get past the previous one it's a bad sign indeed. 

any one looking to start on the xjo higher lows do pay off, but not always! My advantage of using MM or SPI I can profit from the rallies driven by us futures out of hours and also exit, if I choose to take profits.

I have a attached two charts PDF of xjo with the higher low that was the reason to enter and a 30min chart of the IGXJO showing my ent and exit with the life of the trade.

Hope that can help, to any one looking to start trading the IGXJO,

Good trading.


----------



## R0n1n

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

great post Trade_It. Keep them coming.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> I hear what your saying TH, I am not to sure about CMC I made one trade with them last year and then closed my account right after. It was a long on PPT and their prices looked 30-40 cents different form Sanford securities, I was very angry about it. I called CMC and they just did the old run around trick. I have heard bad things about them from many different sources. I personally think the famous market maker is rubbish, and I don't trust there market depth quotes after the problem I had. I am also very suspicious on the motives of there 3% margin rate. smaller the margin the quicker you out on a massive gap!
> 
> IG,
> 
> I have IG open during the day and I have Sanford securities open as well. Sanford is a share & options broker, not a CFD platform. On open the IG xjo price and xjo are normally off a touch, but they reconnect very quickly. they were point for point yesterday but at night it separates.
> 
> But during the day the SPI is the XJO am I right? not the same value though.
> 
> Good trading




Now would be a good time to see what they match it to. Is it still trading while the SFE is down?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



trembling Hand said:


> Now would be a good time to see what they match it to. Is it still trading while the SFE is down?




Hi TH here is the xjo and IG comparesion. IG have widened there spread to 8 points which pisses me off.

as off right now

XJO = 5605.9 IG XJO = 5604.6 very good i must say

Since i posted that i have been watching both the prices xjo & igxjo 9/10 times they are on par with each other.

so no complaints from me in that regard


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> Hi TH here is the xjo and IG comparesion. IG have widened there spread to 8 points which pisses me off.
> 
> as off right now
> 
> XJO = 5605.9 IG XJO = 5604.6 very good i must say
> 
> Since i posted that i have been watching both the prices xjo & igxjo 9/10 times they are on par with each other.
> 
> so no complaints from me in that regard




TH,

a three point price differnce has opened up now IGXJO 3 lower.

now 6 points, they are losing there grip! aghhhhh LOL

now its corrected. beats me as long as they are close i am ok with them. wonder how CMC went? problerly rallied 5 times to knock all the shorts out ha ha ha


----------



## caleb2003

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

do you know why they widened it?


----------



## caleb2003

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

closed completely now!

edit: back again with correct spread


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



caleb2003 said:


> do you know why they widened it?




due to the volatility is my guess.


----------



## caleb2003

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> due to the volatility is my guess.




Really, I've not noticed them do that in the middle of the day before, has this happened a lot in the past?


----------



## aussiebuggaa

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



caleb2003 said:


> Really, I've not noticed them do that in the middle of the day before, has this happened a lot in the past?




I've just posted on another thread regarding this stupid spread increase during market hour - anyway I'll ask here as well since it’s related.  

Does anyone else using other CFD provider experience this similar problem?  If not, who is your provider??  I'll definitely switch!!  5 points spread today is totally ridiculous!!  (8 points yesterday )


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

IGXJO 31/08/07

some fun times on the xjo of late,

took a long on the xjo today in at 6207 for 1 mini contract. 

after seeing it break out of its range it was to good to refuse volume on the xao backs up the move.

I still don't like this trend i think its too vertical and bargain hunter driven but thats my personal opinion.

trend has been confirmed and it's had a normal base to breakout 

us futures at this point are suggesting a rally but the honorable chairman may take the wind out of the rate cut sails!

i will be more convinced on a test of 6200 followed by a rally or a higher low to add more on, but I am still very cautious of this rally.


good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trade_It said:


> IGXJO 31/08/07
> 
> some fun times on the xjo of late,
> 
> took a long on the xjo today in at 6207 for 1 mini contract.
> 
> after seeing it break out of its range it was to good to refuse volume on the xao backs up the move.
> 
> I still don't like this trend i think its too vertical and bargain hunter driven but thats my personal opinion.
> 
> trend has been confirmed and it's had a normal base to breakout
> 
> us futures at this point are suggesting a rally but the honorable chairman may take the wind out of the rate cut sails!
> 
> i will be more convinced on a test of 6200 followed by a rally or a higher low to add more on, but I am still very cautious of this rally.
> 
> 
> good trading





took profits on my xjo as it looks like some weakness could creep in on Monday morning. took 76 points out so nothing to complain about.

if weakness does creep in 6200 is a important number and any deep breaches and closes inside 6200 is a worry.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

A clear bearish evening doji star formation which has also gapped up. Over reaction to mediocre 'good news' last night in my view and unconvincing finish on the DJIA.

I concur with your views and believe this will find a more balanced level which will require movement down before any further upswing.

I remain negative to the overall unstable market at present but I basically have a neutral stance on which direction this may go short term. Any break down of the 6200-6180 support level and we are looking seriously like testing the lows again. Below 6100 get ready for the bears to wake up again and load up the shorts.

The SPI has gapped up significantly a few times since the lows and I can't see these heady levels being sustained.


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Found this thread and it is exactly what I`m doing right now.Holding longs from Sat. morning and just don`t know exactly what to do so I`m going to hold (while at work  ) with the risk of a further 100 + point fall happening Monday/Tuesday.I think it is close to up-trending with a bit of dilly-dallying first.I wish my foresight to be hindsight.

Good luck.


----------



## Ageo

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> Found this thread and it is exactly what I`m doing right now.Holding longs from Sat. morning and just don`t know exactly what to do so I`m going to hold (while at work  ) with the risk of a further 100 + point fall happening Monday/Tuesday.I think it is close to up-trending with a bit of dilly-dallying first.I wish my foresight to be hindsight.
> 
> Good luck.




Your holding a long CFD contract over the Aussie200?? Do you have a stop in place? if yes how far?

Very risky my friend


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

High risk but no stop loss.Damned if I do and damned if I don`t.


----------



## Ageo

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> High risk but no stop loss.Damned if I do and damned if I don`t.




Hmm ok so let me get this straight your trading a long naked position? so if the aussie200 hits 2000 your losses will be devastating!! 

You see the difference between options and CFD's is that you could have bought a Call so that if it goes up you will make money, but for that you pay a premium and thats the most you can lose.

What your doing is buying into the A200 with high leverage and no backdrop? if you dont have enough cash reserves they are going to close your position out (similar to a margin call).

How many contracts are you trading and what does each pip (point) move +/- equal to in dollars? i.e 5 points up might = $20 profit etc...


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> High risk but no stop loss.Damned if I do and damned if I don`t.




Wysiwyg even if you win you lose.  Nothing like getting incorrect method lucking out and giving you a few dollars.


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Ageo said:


> Hmm ok so let me get this straight your trading a long naked position? so if the aussie200 hits 2000 your losses will be devastating!!




Now I`m getting tapped on the shoulder by my pessimist friend.Maybe I should close the position on open.

I have never traded options but will look into them if my trading evolution continues for another 2 or 3 years.

I will post on the outcome though it will be evident which direction the market has taken by tomorrow evening.


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Did something similar to you, but had both long and orders with GSLOs in anticipation of G7 doing something big... Lets see how she opens monday morning


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Trembling Hand said:


> Wysiwyg even if you win you lose.  Nothing like getting incorrect method lucking out and giving you a few dollars.





Well TH, what that means is if I put in a stop loss it could be hit before turning up, then again if I don`t maybe a bigger market drop will sever an artery.It`s a pain threshhold thing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> if I don`t maybe a bigger market drop will sever an *artery*.




No matter. it will sooner or latter. Hope your day job pays well.

Good luck.


----------



## Ageo

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

Wysiwyg if you dont mind answering the question i asked just so we can evaluate your position. Not knocking it mate just having an indepth look and perhaps helping out other newbie CFD traders...



Ageo said:


> How many contracts are you trading and what does each pip (point) move +/- equal to in dollars? i.e 5 points up might = $20 profit etc...


----------



## sardines

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

I've always found closing my positions in an inactive market the best strategy - there's always the SP500 and FTSE100 indices that should be a liquid proxy for your event driven positions.


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Ageo said:


> Wysiwyg if you dont mind answering the question i asked just so we can evaluate your position. Not knocking it mate just having an indepth look and perhaps helping out other newbie CFD traders...





Yeah no problemo Ageo.Just arrived home from work to see my 4 mini ($5AUD) positions (so $20/point)  which are showing 100 + points at the moment.Session closed until 4.10 pm so will monitor movement from home now.Just bloomin happy it was  up today.

p.s. scalping sux


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> Yeah no problemo Ageo.Just arrived home from work to see my 4 mini ($5AUD) positions (so $20/point)  which are showing 100 + points at the moment.Session closed until 4.10 pm so will monitor movement from home now.Just bloomin happy it was  up today.
> 
> p.s. scalping sux



One word.

Arsey.


----------



## Ageo

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> Yeah no problemo Ageo.Just arrived home from work to see my 4 mini ($5AUD) positions (so $20/point)  which are showing 100 + points at the moment.Session closed until 4.10 pm so will monitor movement from home now.Just bloomin happy it was  up today.
> 
> p.s. scalping sux




lol so you scalped back $2000? but im not sure on where you bought in but glad you closed the position. What im trying to say is thow is that if you lost 500 points because the market tanked (and you had no protection) your losses could add up quickly. Imagine you held a position and it tanked over 1000 points? 2000 points? if your going to gamble like that your better off at the casino with better odds


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Ageo said:


> lol so you scalped back $2000? but im not sure on where you bought in but glad you closed the position.




Still holding all 4 Ageo.In at 4050, might sell 2.I`ll wait and see how everyone feels.   

Thanks for your interest.You should put up some of your trades.


----------



## Ageo

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> Still holding all 4 Ageo.In at 4050, might sell 2.I`ll wait and see how everyone feels.
> 
> Thanks for your interest.You should put up some of your trades.




I havent got any (although im looking at some medium term option trades), my main focus atm is trading physical gold (which is my business). Just giving you a heads up on the risks, hopefully you come out alive and happy


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> Still holding all 4 Ageo.In at 4050, might sell 2.I`ll wait and see how everyone feels.
> 
> Thanks for your interest.You should put up some of your trades.




How about a trailing stop? Let the profit ride.


----------



## Ageo

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> How about a trailing stop? Let the profit ride.




Of course possible but with this volatility you would need it to be about 200 points away from the previous close hehe


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Uncle Festivus said:


> How about a trailing stop? Let the profit ride.





Well 2/4 have gone for 223 points gain and the other 2 have a stop level at 4100 (50 above entry) and a limit level of 4780 so the market action can decide their fate.This is tiring work but rewarding when it all falls into place.

:goodnight


----------



## Ageo

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*



Wysiwyg said:


> Well 2/4 have gone for 223 points gain and the other 2 have a stop level at 4100 (50 above entry) and a limit level of 4780 so the market action can decide their fate.This is tiring work but rewarding when it all falls into place.
> 
> :goodnight




hehe i see your pushing the limits with this trade, just lock those profits in mate. Nice work on the recovery


----------



## n5032245

*Re: Trading the XJO with CFD's*

FYI

Nice little clause from the CMC T&C’s

3.19 Clients may be treated differently

CMC Markets in its absolute discretion may quote different prices, and charge Commission, Financing Charges, Rollover Charges and other charges at different rates, to different clients.


outrageous isn't it!


----------



## Joules MM1

4 years between posts.....oi!





https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/281225291551100928/photo/1




https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/281248162444869632/photo/1


----------



## Joules MM1

10.24 the major clue came for the swing....the bid was clearly being hit hard especially in the lowest time frames.....

not able to interpret this action ? my suggestion is dont trade cfd's


----------



## RazzaDazzla

Joules MM1 said:


> 10.24 the major clue came for the swing....the bid was clearly being hit hard especially in the lowest time frames.....
> 
> not able to interpret this action ? my suggestion is dont trade cfd's




Nice thread. I've made a few semi-successful attempts to trade the ASX-200 using SPI Futures contracts trading through IB.

Re. your comment above, do you mean at 10.24am you were witnessing the bid being hit hard? So if the bid's being hit hard, that's a bearish signal as the sellers are keen to take what they can get rather than hold out?

Who do you trade the ASX200 CFDs through? Are they market made or OTC? What does the data on their charts and market depth show? e.g. is it showing only the market depth and trades of their CFDs or is it data from SPI futures or another underlying? I'm not interrogating, just curious


----------



## Joules MM1

RazzaDazzla said:


> Nice thread. I've made a few semi-successful attempts to trade the ASX-200 using SPI Futures contracts trading through IB.
> 
> Re. your comment above, do you mean at 10.24am you were witnessing the bid being hit hard? So if the bid's being hit hard, that's a bearish signal as the sellers are keen to take what they can get rather than hold out?
> 
> Who do you trade the ASX200 CFDs through? Are they market made or OTC? What does the data on their charts and market depth show? e.g. is it showing only the market depth and trades of their CFDs or is it data from SPI futures or another underlying? I'm not interrogating, just curious




the character of business changes not how i would expect....even tho we see more days with longer tails meaning i think we have a new sets of sellers thinking we're too high, but, that maybe just that theyre transacting on a rear-view mirror basis....so if the bid suddenly starts to pop the way it did mid morning and the cfd was already knocked down (repriced) into the open and cash could not make the overnight, that tells me we have some genuine distribution at this daily level......so the extreme safety is to sell that high because even on a simple odds basis the risk is with the short sell and against the holding the bid.......but the inverse ratio also tells me that the construct of the major players is to be long at least in todays play....that might change overnight.....

the cfd provider is one of the usual suspects....

i closed at 3.30.....the time of day is important to me for this instrument.....likely the xjo cfd will take a spike down as the US overnights play havoc with shorters like they did this morning... a nice 12 point swing on the SPX pre cash would have cut a lot of newbie fingers......oh, how i remember 2003/2004......lulz


----------



## >Apocalypto<

man this thread is trip down memory lane. back in the early days of when i started trading... god i had some whacked out looking charts.


----------



## Joules MM1

>Apocalypto< said:


> man this thread is trip down memory lane. back in the early days of when i started trading... god i had some whacked out looking charts.




tops


----------



## Joules MM1

anyone trading cfd's here's a live trade live study of gold using ratios and cfd

trade2win.com/boards/commodities/135664-gold-2011-12-a-32.html#post2038838

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/135664-gold-2011-12-a-32.html#post2038838

this one is part iv you'll need to go back a few posts to find part i


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules,

What software are you using?

Might be better suited to the Gold Daytraders thread??

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12971&highlight=Gold+Daytraders

UF


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Joules,
> 
> What software are you using?
> 
> Might be better suited to the Gold Daytraders thread??
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12971&highlight=Gold+Daytraders
> 
> UF




yes

i was posting on the run this morning, live trades while doing a study at the same time, my remiss

if Joe wants to move the post(s)

most of the work is on the gold 2012 thread at trade2win ....it's a worthwhile study as it's one of those rare times when all the parts of the play were apparent and flowed nicely......nice cheese for me anyways


----------



## oldorman

I have a question for the cfd traders. Is it safe to trade with $25-$50 contracts on the Aus 200 ?

The broker won't pull any funny business if your playing with that amount ?

I was thinking if there are no liquidity problems because it just tracks the index and your just a trade inside your brokers virtual machine then there should be no slippage or bad fills or widened spread, slow execution etc.

So I guess I like to know from experienced ones if the instrument plays fair with bigger dollar amounts ?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

oldorman said:


> I have a question for the cfd traders. Is it safe to trade with $25-$50 contracts on the Aus 200 ?
> 
> The broker won't pull any funny business if your playing with that amount ?
> 
> I was thinking if there are no liquidity problems because it just tracks the index and your just a trade inside your brokers virtual machine then there should be no slippage or bad fills or widened spread, slow execution etc.
> 
> So I guess I like to know from experienced ones if the instrument plays fair with bigger dollar amounts ?




As safe as your risk strategy is.

No funny business as long as they are winning? Plenty of stories on here about dodgy practices when you start winning? Some are worse than others for eg CMC used to be cronic re-quoters for any size, not sure if they still are as I no longer do business with them. Safety of your funds is still qustionable too these days, though none are to big to fail anymore eg MF Global?


----------



## cbc1

Hello Uncle,

I"m looking at getting into SPX200 CFD trading, I have 2 demo accounts, one with IG and one with CMC.

Talk about confusing,  exactly what is the Australia 200 cash,  is this the S&P ASX 200? It looks very close.  Which leads to my next question which I will try to answer myself.  Whats with the changing spread that doesn't sit evenly over the index?  I can understand the spread changing to the advantage of IG,  say if the DJIA is down then people dive on the "Sell" overnight and thus IG jack up the price (spread).  U know, just like a bookmaker at the races constantly changing the odds to their advantage. 

Also whats with the spread moving 20 points whilst the XJO has been down for 3 hours (close at 4ish)

Does everyone get quoted the same price or what? 

So whats this dodgy business? Re-quoting?  Is that when you try to close out and they change the price? So much for that advertising about 90something % of trades getting closed out in micro seconds eh?  

My Cfd trading was only going to be investing on the side.  

Thanks


----------



## cynic

I've had experience trading with three CFD providers to date. I always strongly recommend a very thorough reading of the relevant PDS and client agreements to anyone considering these products. The clauses I've encountered, thus far, have sufficient scope (and at times vagueness) to allow the provider to (amongst other things) quote different prices to different clients, alter margin requirements without notice, and automatically close positions should the account go sufficiently into margin/deficit.

I think you can readily understand just how much financial devastation an unscrupulous provider could legally inflict on their clients if said provider decided to surrender integrity in pursuance of greater profitability.

As for outside of hours price movements and spread widening - yes I have observed significantly increased spreads (at times >100 pts) when trading "Aussie 200" cfd/spread bet products. In addition to the widening of spreads, the prices also move in reaction to news and other markets. I've also had the experience of my stop orders being touched and triggered with a spooky degree of precision. My suspicions were aroused by the frequency of these occurrences , however, the PDS/Client Agreements often allow the provider to quote different prices to different customers!).

Many of the CFD traders/investors I've encountered, seem to be blissfully ignorant of the PDS and its contents. This tends to lend some weight to ASIC's dismissal of clients as being "unsophisticated", however, the "if not, why not" disclosure benchmarks that ASIC introduced appear to fall a long way short of addressing issues pertinent to the potential "conflicts of interest" within the client/provider business relationship. The prohibition of certain PDS clauses prior to the granting of an AFSL would (in my opinion) go a long way towards improving the integrity of the OTC CFD industry. 

Given ASIC's performance history to date, I won't be holding my breath.


----------



## Joules MM1

sold to open XJO 4668 stop 74 target 24's


----------



## kid hustlr

cbc1 said:


> Hello Uncle,
> 
> I"m looking at getting into SPX200 CFD trading, I have 2 demo accounts, one with IG and one with CMC.
> 
> Talk about confusing,  exactly what is the Australia 200 cash,  is this the S&P ASX 200? It looks very close.  Which leads to my next question which I will try to answer myself.  Whats with the changing spread that doesn't sit evenly over the index?  I can understand the spread changing to the advantage of IG,  say if the DJIA is down then people dive on the "Sell" overnight and thus IG jack up the price (spread).  U know, just like a bookmaker at the races constantly changing the odds to their advantage.
> 
> Also whats with the spread moving 20 points whilst the XJO has been down for 3 hours (close at 4ish)
> 
> Does everyone get quoted the same price or what?
> 
> So whats this dodgy business? Re-quoting?  Is that when you try to close out and they change the price? So much for that advertising about 90something % of trades getting closed out in micro seconds eh?
> 
> My Cfd trading was only going to be investing on the side.
> 
> Thanks




CBC i think you need to gain a better understanding as to how the underlying index, the futures contract and the cfd are related.


----------



## cbc1

Are you freakin kidding KID or what?????

Isn't this is what the forums for??  To come on and ask questions if you don't understand somthing......

After sifting through you reply I have a better understanding that it isn't just tracking the index then.


----------



## CanOz

cbc1 said:


> Are you freakin kidding KID or what?????
> 
> Isn't this is what the forums for??  To come on and ask questions if you don't understand somthing......
> 
> After sifting through you reply I have a better understanding that it isn't just tracking the index then.




When the cash index is open the cfd ( or the SPI futures contract ) and the cash will be very closely correlated as arb traders take advantage of any difference...once the cash closes the cfd and the future are on their own to track the other global markets until it closes again before the cash opens.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> sold to open XJO 4668 stop 74 target 24's




crimped....

xjo does look very bullish....very little rotation....except for the overnights 

sold to open 4684's looking for 4634's ...





https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/284515215398281216/photo/1


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> When the cash index is open the cfd ( or the SPI futures contract ) and the cash will be very closely correlated as arb traders take advantage of any difference...once the cash closes the cfd and the future are on their own to track the other global markets until it closes again before the cash opens.
> 
> CanOz




mebbe a tad confusing, mister C 







> until it closes again




mebbe explain wot the "it" is that closes

and are you alluding to the SFE setting the futures price and the cfd tracks that (while not adjusting directly to be the futures contract price, rather, parallel) ?


----------



## Joules MM1

and yes, i lulz @ the hsi short, too....why bother a 11 point spread on a 30 point swing....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> mebbe a tad confusing, mister C
> 
> mebbe explain wot the "it" is that closes
> 
> and are you alluding to the SFE setting the futures price and the cfd tracks that (while not adjusting directly to be the futures contract price, rather, parallel) ?




I can't recall how the CFD tracks the SPI in the sycom session Joules, maybe you can give a better idea of this...i just saw that no one had responded so i attempted to set the recent poster straight. Having not used CFDs for over 4 years i guess i shouldn't be commenting.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I can't recall how the CFD tracks the SPI in the sycom session Joules, maybe you can give a better idea of this...i just saw that no one had responded so i attempted to set the recent poster straight. Having not used CFDs for over 4 years i guess i shouldn't be commenting.
> 
> CanOz




s'all good....just wanted to know if i had strayed off the beaten......my understanding is that the sfe sets the price....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> ......my understanding is that the sfe sets the price....




One would want to hope so, can't trust those shifty market makers...


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> One would want to hope so, can't trust those shifty market makers...




+1.


----------



## cbc1

Can, Joulz,


Thanks for covering that.  You shed much needed light on the situation.



Also I don't trust their systym,  this was just going to be somthing on the side


----------



## skc

cbc1 said:


> Hello Uncle,
> 
> I"m looking at getting into SPX200 CFD trading, I have 2 demo accounts, one with IG and one with CMC.
> 
> Talk about confusing,  exactly what is the Australia 200 cash,  is this the S&P ASX 200? It looks very close.  Which leads to my next question which I will try to answer myself.  Whats with the changing spread that doesn't sit evenly over the index?  I can understand the spread changing to the advantage of IG,  say if the DJIA is down then people dive on the "Sell" overnight and thus IG jack up the price (spread).  U know, just like a bookmaker at the races constantly changing the odds to their advantage.
> 
> Also whats with the spread moving 20 points whilst the XJO has been down for 3 hours (close at 4ish)
> 
> Does everyone get quoted the same price or what?
> 
> So whats this dodgy business? Re-quoting?  Is that when you try to close out and they change the price? So much for that advertising about 90something % of trades getting closed out in micro seconds eh?
> 
> My Cfd trading was only going to be investing on the side.
> 
> Thanks




With IG ASX200 is cash and has 1 point spread during cash hours. With ASX200 futures it has 2 (or 3, can't remember) spread during the SPI day session. Overnight session the ASX200 futures CFD have much larger spreads.

The cash product is different to futures in that it has cost of carry - i.e. overnight interest charges and dividend. You will notice, for example, if tomorrow is a large ex-div day (say for a Big 4 bank), the cash CFD will drop by dividend adjustment, while the futures CFD will not change. Essentially, the cash product "mostly" track the real SPI futures tick for tick during the day, but it is "made" to maintain the same numerical value by IG as the XJO cash index. 

I encourage you to find the answer for yourself, however. It has been a while since I last traded the index CFDs intimately.

To fully appreciate what's going on, you can watch the two CFD products, the real SPI and the XJO cash during various market phases. To see if IG is quoting you a different price/spread to another punter, you can sign up multiple accounts (demos) with them and watch them side by side. You can run each in a different browser or through a laptop / mobile etc.


----------



## Joules MM1

just a quick addition to the decions made on todays sell to open which is still active and riding down on weak US futures....the weekly and daily are clearly (in that order) the dominant reasons

how significant this weekly ratio is is unknown, however if broken upwards allows for a strong purview and confirm a bull period.....right now my focus is on the pullback....including HSI and GOLD


----------



## Joules MM1

a break of the lower support line would put the odds of multi day pullback in favour of sellers.....the XJO has decent rotation in several sessions....i am warey that the US market could pull a giant bunny out of the congress hat.....ping!!

the arrows denote trade entry

$$


----------



## Joules MM1

XJO
the 4634 level i cited in the above chart was fractionally broken and immediately retreated above in this mornings melee in the US.....i have left several (open to) sells running even though looks to me like over-extended there..... there is likely to be some weight in the HSI next week......all rotational, i think.....


----------



## kid hustlr

cbc1 said:


> Are you freakin kidding KID or what?????
> 
> Isn't this is what the forums for??  To come on and ask questions if you don't understand somthing......
> 
> After sifting through you reply I have a better understanding that it isn't just tracking the index then.




Easy CBC, I was just making the point that its best to seriosuly research these things yourself.

There's also several very good posts in these forums about this very topic.

SKC summed it up well.

The point I was making was that you need to recognise the linkages between the various products and then decide which product you are best trading.

The ASX 200 cash index and the underlying futures contract are heavily linked. Whilst the cash index is open any mispricings will be quickly 'arbed out' to ensure no riskless free profit. You will notice that as the futures contract reaches expiry the 'gap' between the ASX 200 cash index and the underlying futures contract (SPI) reduces. This reflect the cost of carry. 

When the cash index is closed as CanOz said the futures market continues to trade, it will siwng around with the overnight markets based on demand and supply. Often you will see the cash index open substantially differnet to how it closed the session before due to the overnight swings which have in the futures market.

CFD dealers are their to make money. Rest assured the price they are quoting you to buy/sell is in someway benefical to them. Usally you pay a larger 'spread' or perhaps high commision rates etc. Ultimately any CFD product will track  closely the underlying index however as any major difference in price would allow for arbitrage opportunites.

Random aside: interesitng article about the strucutre of future contracts:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/contango_backwardation.asp#axzz2GPCCbEQA


----------



## cbc1

Thanks for that info Kid,

I think I'l give CFD trading a miss.  Just stick with the overnighters.  I had seen the overnighters on the ASX website however I thought that there wasn't much traffic and gave them a miss.  That was until I read up on them.  PPPWTTTT.   I've decided to jump in.

I didn't realize that the SPI overnighters influenced the start of trading on the sharemarket.  I just thought that if
US was say down 1% then everyone would just dump shares in the first hour of trading.  If the SPI futures and the cash index are closely linked then there must be some interesting trading leading up to the open of the cash index.
I had trouble finding a graph of the SPI except for www.sfe.com.au.

Thanks for that info,

These 24 hour futures look like fun, I can't wait to book a hotel room and pull a 24 hour trading session.


----------



## Wysiwyg

The XJO probes higher highs while the DOW corrects about 1/4 of the rally. Glad to be proven wrong but over exuberance is manifesting on this market.


----------



## Joules MM1

futes popped
break-away gaps, or gap-n-go gaps, do not need to get filled when theyre micro size


----------



## Joules MM1

great trade session, not so great signal for bulls

when these (box) ratio appear they tend to support the one-larger swing (down) ...suggesting we need to go retest sub 5760's
in the second chart is the all-hours cfd with a simple up-down-up sequence also a 1:1 ratio and the day failed to hold above the 50% swing of the cash session creating two long tail cash days


----------



## Joules MM1

wrong about that ....which is nice .....bulls racing...retail currently 61% sold side


----------



## Joules MM1

bids are in, retail cfd's are 65% short 10.30am !


----------



## Joules MM1

either i'm trapped or 67% retail shorts are going to have one of those shouldeye shouldnteye days


----------



## Joules MM1

psychology of sell the peaks appears to be entrenched - this appears normal disposition from previous xjo rises that have lasted several weeks/months




rise above 161.8 ratio will be confirmation the bias to be long outweighs the sell side


----------



## kid hustlr

J,

you're obviously looking shorter term however my take below. I'm not seeing the underlying strength to push this market higher


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> J,
> 
> you're obviously looking shorter term however my take below. I'm not seeing the underlying strength to push this market higher
> 
> View attachment 87075




fair points and i do have to be ready to bail
counter to those ideas, consider, most walls of worry are climbed from a scene of weakness, hence, retail cfd players are net short today (net means consistently sell to open as a % during the whole session, so we're not talking a hedge but an absolute directional bet, shorts are being ground out, slow enough they wont flip till its too late)
keep in mind we all see the same numbers but choose to interpret them thru a bias lens 
the aus markets tend to keep step or often lead in heavy sell/buy periods and i think anecdotally this is an important key for trend, is the external markets look like they should be selling, the question has to be asked why is the local market making higher highs when the smart money would surely press the pedal in sell mode if they perceived a strong decline coming, could it be that the struggle is because the main money to enter locally is already in and theyre in no hurry to press the bid, that means, they soak weak supply and do not need to chase so price drifts higher rather than races higher and price "looks" weak
which the difference between 

when something looks heavy you need to take apart what that heaviness is and get upto speed with dissecting and ask; is there value of the interpretation within the data, or, your propensity to view that data with an emotive logic ....so the faster you dissect and apply cognitive logic will determin the speed at which you shake off  or stop applying emotive logic to the numbers you see, think (as an extreme) how numbers looked in 1932 or 1974 or 2009 ......nice lows, huh....

on balance, is the logic youre applying to the chart inline with how the people who are buying what is being sold are viewing the market or is the logic youre applying to the chart inline with the people who are selling what other people are buying ......someones buying all that scared energy, scared value
are all the people buying thinking prices wont get any cheaper?

you also have to ask; if i wait til i see the "evidence" that this market has the strength to get higher (whatever that height is) then will it be too late to get in then when price has reached that height?
(you cannot trade hindsight)?

is a series of higher highs and higher lows enough to engage ? if so what size is that series (how is it constructed) and if that series begins to expand (price lengths get wider) is that sufficient enough for me to postulate we are trending? if the series i engage in does not require trend postulation then can i simply engage within the confines of the series of bars i see being printed?
if the absolute dollar risk i put down does not change regardless the narrative i place on price action and if the reward does not change based on the narrative i give to price action then what is the reason for not engaging with the auction?


----------



## kid hustlr

Appear to have got it right J, atleast for now.

With the cash being closed it would have been a bumpy ride so I am unsure how the trade(s) would have been managed on your end.


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Appear to have got it right J, atleast for now.
> 
> With the cash being closed it would have been a bumpy ride so I am unsure how the trade(s) would have been managed on your end.




public hols tend to skew the gig, spent a lot of time scaling, prefer to be with the bid


----------



## Joules MM1

bought the close 





if you look further out, nearest but widest operable level, the general drift is up, HH's and HL's hence the idea "dont sell just cos it's easy or just cos it relieves the pressure valve"
having said that, it's way easier to scale or cull longs bag the smaller coin near the close of sesh, than have to sit thru self wind-bagging slumps


----------



## Joules MM1

uptrendy type action ....after the open sales/purchases, a  slump, u-shape type thing, compression, yazz, that's the way


----------



## Joules MM1

retail betting all-in STO's

 rocket fuel


----------



## Joules MM1

break away, market to market






this also applies to the $SML (US high beta)
bids are in


----------



## Joules MM1

retail cfd's via cmc just printed 83% STO 

oh....my....


----------



## Joules MM1

a new acronim "SBCTC"
.....squeez butt cheeks to close


----------



## Joules MM1

no emoji to encapsulate the wonder of this ......86% STO !


----------



## Joules MM1

applicable to cfd's:

this attitude-perfect moment sums up what trading actually is: a series of ideas that narrow the odds of losing in of favour winning, as a lifting percentage, not about a win-all event, rather, a repetition of what works and a culling of what doesnt work .....every trade is prone to a rogue wave which brings this to mind:

the three immutable rules of margin trades:
money management
money management
money management

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/p2-momentum-trade-book-part-3.33744/page-7#post-980684


----------



## PinguPingu

Joules MM1 said:


> bought the close
> 
> View attachment 87098
> 
> if you look further out, nearest but widest operable level, the general drift is up, HH's and HL's hence the idea "dont sell just cos it's easy or just cos it relieves the pressure valve"
> having said that, it's way easier to scale or cull longs bag the smaller coin near the close of sesh, than have to sit thru self wind-bagging slumps




Bloody good read, Joules. What a cracker of a week for the XJO.


----------



## Joules MM1

Jo had a significant swing overnight at a major 1:1 resistance so today may give insight to a few flat sessions as we probe at todays opening cash high or rotate, $spx found low and the high betas had higher lows relative to the $spx, usually a bull signal

preference with the offer on Jo


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers done finished downside probes?
prob needs to compete one small cycle upwards to new high before a larger correction to reset valuations in this big bull


----------



## Joules MM1

as a reference on how liquidity is moving thru the lens of other indexes even tho our market is on its own congested blind leading the blind uptrend

$spx


----------



## Joules MM1

follow-up bite on hsi


----------



## Joules MM1

another 'kin wall !!

6110 revisit ... held up by honkers n US ?


----------



## Joules MM1

both honkers and spx evidenced theyre at swing low zones and least the pain is small distance..


----------



## Joules MM1

we may only need to return to 60 after cash closes, jo often completes a cycle out of cash hours
if the 60 zone does not hold then the 1:1 larger rotation resistance requires a deeper test to reset the upside

as an example:





and yes i know the bigchart thing is usually a substandard print it just highlights the lack of impulsivity, in other words the price was assisted rather than endogenously driven


----------



## PinguPingu

Seems like strong resistance up here, am short a contract of the SPI at 6091


----------



## Joules MM1

a lot of chipping away at that wall, a fake out coming .....


PinguPingu said:


> Seems like strong resistance up here, am short a contract of the SPI at 6091




lol, bun fights at the brick wall ....bring your fave robot for the challenge


----------



## Joules MM1

STO 6107's ...and squinting


----------



## PinguPingu

Stop to B/E because I am a chicken. Counting on that ASX fade and Trump backing out of Iran.


----------



## Joules MM1

if trade days had emoji's


----------



## PinguPingu

There's the fade I know and love. Not too bad though, so just gonna take profit here at 6074. Knowing me, SPI will collapse overnight lol.


----------



## Joules MM1

retail cfd's 85% STO 10.30am (15% longs)

via cmc


----------



## Joules MM1

symmetric pull, simple choppy down-up-down abc

bully in the cash $spx


----------



## Joules MM1

6092's protected today xjo .. bots are out and squeezing, a chop fest higher

here's that simple symmetry in the cfd on $spx and the rotation is clean, reset south clean bid north


----------



## Joules MM1

_honkers in a the supporting role... 



_


----------



## Joules MM1

longs must be happy ....(pros?) bought all the way into the close


----------



## Joules MM1

retail cfd are 88% sell to open .......all in, not quite, but, obviously convinced south du jour


----------



## PinguPingu

Nice to see the local market finishing at the highs. XJO looking like one big ol basing pattern now. US market looking to make a move out of the triangle. Lets hope its upwards and onwards, hoping for some FOMO.


----------



## peter2

Joules MM1 said:


> retail cfd are 88% sell to open .......all in, not quite, but, obviously convinced south du jour




@Joules MM1 Have these retail cfd numbers helped your trading? 

Are retail cfd traders really that out of touch with what the markets are doing? 
Are they pig-headedly contrarian? Are they trading on emotions?


----------



## fiftyeight

peter2 said:


> @Joules MM1 Have these retail cfd numbers helped your trading?
> 
> Are retail cfd traders really that out of touch with what the markets are doing?
> Are they pig-headedly contrarian? Are they trading on emotions?




Haha was just thinking the same thing!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> @Joules MM1 Have these retail cfd numbers helped your trading?
> 
> Are retail cfd traders really that out of touch with what the markets are doing?
> Are they pig-headedly contrarian? Are they trading on emotions?




yes and yes

lets say that 50% is hedging and 60% is a tendency 80% is fear or greed, we can say that as the pendulum moves further away the likelyhood that the positioning is emotive logic as opposed to cognitive logic, so long as i respect the levels i set then i can watch the "value" of those levels as price hits

it's purely a contextual exercise ....sometimes the mad crowd is correct so relative size of swings and context play crucial roles


----------



## Joules MM1

gandering at cash for context build

ideas


----------



## fiftyeight

Joules MM1 said:


> ideas




Things seems to be setting up for another leg up locally and more broadly. If we hold above 6100 time to get long.


----------



## kid hustlr

Hard for the index rally to hard when the constituents within are already near over bought levels.






Buy the break of the high looks too obvious here - I remain neutral at the minute favoring a short term pull back.


----------



## Joules MM1

can we add a little story to this
that on the down days more volume transacted (at the bid), discounted prices by scared money
(someone was buying all the sell volume)
less volume on the up days because no one's chasing, so while in the uplegs price maybe marked up to some extent by the lack of available supply it is clear that volume did not exceed the print

this appears to me to be a good sign of a bull trend puting aside the long whips and pulls the overall weekly upchannel on both indexes looks strong

from a trade perspective as opposed to an investment perspective this is also a bull with a lot of fake runs .....you've got great hair, oh, it's a wig....
ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

sold 6131's front month cfd
stop 39's in cash, 
spx driving hard higher globex hours,  likely rotate 53's in cash


----------



## Joules MM1

scratch that idea ......sellers no where to be found


----------



## Joules MM1

early sellers got hit in the face with divvies and retail cfd's were 82%ish 
after being hit and price is with the offer retail are 62% sell


----------



## Joules MM1

xjo is in a large secular bull climb

we are currently, over the next few weeks +/- days, we are in a pullback within the climb that'll set up another major and swift leg upwards, in doing so the pullback has already proven choppy as bids come and support price, hence, no clean run south and plenty of early sellers got smacked in the mouth with divvies so just holding is pertinent in the right phase and obviously the right time....context of placing wide price bets is key

the targets south that are normally reliable will likely be shorter than usual simply due to where we are in the larger monthly and weekly upchannel, supported by an AUD, being smashed all over the park, making aus stocks v. attractive, but, it's too early by about cupla hunj + to get long for the extended ride north
Asia on the bid is good for us more so than the rest of the globe!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/chart-patterns.15195/page-5

last week
what was interesting to watch was the reversal in retail shorts from an average of 82% to sub 60% when the divvies hit, that doesnt mean shorts closed and longs opened to take advantage of the divvie it means shorts were hit and then probably, most likely, forced to close on margin as is the traditional mantra of retail to oversize especially on the down-view
late last monday i thought we would see sellers step into the last halfa but they failed to show up, few want to let go which is another good sign that the sellside will not be an one-shot wonder

this week
so, too, nearterm sells are not going to be easy peazy with lots of what look like fake lifts until we get to the top of the recent value zone and will have to rely on smallest time frames to get the rotation north

weeks to come
the $SML has made very strong constructive bids north, leading the $SPX ($oex has been an internal drag for the $spx). The current wedge/triangle thing in $spx and $hsi  precede a final push north in major bull legs and they are measurable thrusts to come...at least IME these thrusts from tri/wedges tend to occur more often than not and they tend to support a swing back to overconfidence, at the end of those thrusts, in long-side views as major swing tops need to do to burn the happy energy ...
more robust lifts in the US and Asia region will be a good background for our markets trendwise

while i could argue that a strong USD is bad for equities i think locally that is not necessarily true as a weak AUD continues to attract o/s liquidity

looking for signs of life in not-so-sought-after indications esp SDD and SPXU (inverse volume and activity) and a completion of the SPXUDP process ...all of which appear to need one more decent upside leg for complete conviction by bulls (small down swing, larger leg to complete the current bull cycle)
https://www.stocktrader.com/inverse-short-etfs-bearish-etf-funds/









the money wheel merely turns, rather than bull bear ideas as absolutes another idea is to see where liquidity flows

ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

impulsive sell


----------



## Joules MM1

the 6123 rotation was an extreme rip overnight used by 'money'  to go and kill the weak shorts and that completed that C (2) move hence the reason we did not see it in the cash .....smart @rs little feckers


----------



## Joules MM1

at the initiation of a rotation where the rotation is (probably) a pull within a strong bull cycle it is important to avoid being smacked in the face overnight (because they can and sometimes the LSE prices influence futes) and because divvies

 a slo-mo look at how the did that


----------



## Modest

Drop it like it’s hot


----------



## Joules MM1

typically when the US $SML, as one of the high beta indexes, makes an inside down/up day it leads to a significant swing in the opposite direction relative to recent swings

it'll be interesting to see how many indexes are listed as a 'cash' or 'short sell' tomorrow in the US
https://www.americanbulls.com/IndexSignalList.aspx?lang=en


----------



## kid hustlr

How you seeing it J? 

Some life back into some of the market leaders (A2M / TWE / BAL) but still work to be done. Banks also looking over done and CBA at key levels might lead to some bounce back short term, especially if the USA catches a bid.

Ultimately though:

- A Reits & Utilities looking to bottom - 'flight to safety'
- Indexes at key resistance level
- AUD holding in/strengthening?
- My indicators nowhere near oversold

Hard to get too excited at this point on a medium term view? Pick the eyes out and nothing more?


----------



## Joules MM1

would like to see a basic puke move south as there has not been an impulsive turnaround locally
both hsi and spx appear to need another swing south to set-up a much larger final bull phase with the current secular cycle .....i guess it comes down to time frame

spx still appears to me to attain 2753 level for a rotation 
hard to be precious about either side tho using most of the sessions for coinage


----------



## Joules MM1

chocs away, skates on

weeeeeeeeeeee


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> chocs away, skates on
> 
> weeeeeeeeeeee




another one of those if you've hung on @Modest  .....or are you away picking another box of cubans?


----------



## Modest

A pop may be brewing


----------



## Joules MM1

forced out this morning and holding longs...if this is the extent of the pullback, i thought would be shallow but not this shallow,  the next series upside should have some decent legs looking for new altime highs by year end ...one leg in the pants at a time tho


----------



## Joules MM1

looking for base of channel 
	

		
			
		

		
	







euro markets in hard sell and US looks as tho requires a final swing south to complete rotation before new altime highs ......politicians huh


----------



## kid hustlr

Seeing it the same as yourself J with with the fut's threatening to push higher here.

Internals remain mid range (albeit on the over sold side a little) and some bank buying interest (those yields!) might provide some upside.

I've had a disappointing few weeks on the stock selection front however I remain cautiously bullish with moderate exposure.

Small ords and the small end of town still look more optimistic to me. XEC below looking especially positive?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

kid hustlr said:


> Internals remain mid range (albeit on the over sold side a little) and some bank buying interest (those yields!) might provide some upside.




Hello kid hustlr,

Any chance you could post a chart of the Cumulative Advance-Decline for ASX?

I peek at the NYSE Cumulative A/D once a week and it is looking pretty positive (new all time highs), just curious about the ASX version.


----------



## kid hustlr

InsvestoBoy said:


> .
> View attachment 87650




IB,

Below are the charts i keep an eye on since I've been managing a stock portfolio closely. I don't keep a longer term breadth chart but rather monitor a 10 day average as I'm looking for overbought/oversold conditions.

The second chart is what you are after - first data point only 6/11/17 though. I think I have the calc right - I've just summed the net of advance - decline since 06/11/17. Interesting divergence TBH.


----------



## fiftyeight

kid hustlr said:


> IB,
> 
> Below are the charts i keep an eye on]




Are you updating these charts yourself Kid?


----------



## kid hustlr

fiftyeight said:


> Are you updating these charts yourself Kid?




Yep. 

I run a quick scan on IC each night then enter the data into excel.

Full proof until I’m travelling for work and miss a day on the scan


----------



## kid hustlr

In the spirit of totality - my updated Dashboard attached.


----------



## fiftyeight

kid hustlr said:


> my updated Dashboard attached.




Full credit kid, the effort and consistency is fantastic!!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

cash closed at 90 cfd closed sat morning at 6028 and re-opened at 6028

pretty much all you need to know


----------



## InsvestoBoy

kid hustlr said:


> Yep.
> 
> I run a quick scan on IC each night then enter the data into excel.
> 
> Full proof until I’m travelling for work and miss a day on the scan




Thankyou for the chart. That looks pretty scary to me, quite a different picture from US markets.

FWIW, I believe some data vendors like PremiumData offer the A/D line so you don't have to do the calculation yourself and chance missing out.

Also, I think if you do miss out on a day you can look the number up in a financial paper for that day.


----------



## Joules MM1

scaling ....the enforced to practise, eek

today
2:30pm 1.5 rate and RBA Rate Statement


----------



## Joules MM1

log every minute ......and up we go


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 87612




when we broke the channel roof i thought the 6037 would go but it got rejected a second time and intra-today we've stalled again awaiting rba's decish so that 37 level becomes crucial to the bulls argument that we're in the midst of a bull leg...that denotes two levels (+/-) 37 to confirm bull leg 5970 bear leg to explore 5700 zone

i'm with the bid unless we crack 5970 which would likely attract an uh-oh momo


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers happy humping upwards ...
shall we too?
probably!


----------



## Joules MM1

lack of follow-thru has all the hallmarks of interruption to larger swing, in this instance, downwards
if the $spx/$sml/hsi were in downtrends instead of strong upswings bids would be toasted already


----------



## Joules MM1

i'm havin a whinge about watching drying paint having a fist fight .....not helping, jan!

money flow at the lows so plenty of room for them to ascend, xao m/f a better look than the 200





hanging onto this long like performing a TaskMaster test


----------



## Joules MM1

ya gotts ta understandz ya trend !


----------



## Joules MM1

$hsi tri i've been tracking for a while .....can we trust text book plays?
shall look for an entry on first pullback  now the tri roof is broken


----------



## Joules MM1

closed xjo longs today when the opening HOD was retaken, money flows have not reflected any genuine bid pressure, orthodox construct was allowed to move, that is, i ignored the overlapping at the recent swing low and saw it as congestive which bids could capture weak sales so that should hve today in a rocket but it's a wet two day lettuce
short dax, still looking for retrace in hsi to get a long

bbfn


----------



## kid hustlr

She's taken off.

Short term looks overdone and I'm not sure if this is a simple short squeeze in the banks or the start of the turn around.

Interesting to see how relatively cheap we are when plotting the XJO in USD. Well away from the Feb highs.

Medium to longer term I'm unsure. New highs is bullish but this A/D Line just wont go with it. Divergence building but may take many months before it cracks

Edit:

Also interesting to see my twitter feed commenting on the small end of town looking skittish. I follow several intra day traders as well as a handful of medium term punters and the micro caps aren't offering huge opportunity from what I'm seeing (and XEC confirms)

PlayBig Play Liquid I think.


----------



## kid hustlr

Well if I thought she as short term overbought yesterday must be extremes today!

Buy side strong side although I do note the micros aren't conforming (again)


----------



## kid hustlr

Makes for interesting viewing


----------



## InsvestoBoy

kid hustlr said:


> View attachment 87938
> 
> 
> Makes for interesting viewing




Any update on the chart, kid hustlr?

Here is another interesting measure of dispersion I'd be keen to see if you can show, the total number of new highs + new lows as a % of all stocks.


----------



## kid hustlr

InsvestoBoy said:


> Any update on the chart, kid hustlr?
> 
> Here is another interesting measure of dispersion I'd be keen to see if you can show, the total number of new highs + new lows as a % of all stocks.




All charts  relate to the XAO Index


----------



## InsvestoBoy

kid hustlr said:


> All charts  relate to the XAO Index
> 
> View attachment 88676




Hey kid hustlr, that XAO cumulative A/D certainly provided a lot of red flags on that rally, any updates?


----------



## kid hustlr

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/a-new-beginning.33344/page-15



InsvestoBoy said:


> Hey kid hustlr, that XAO cumulative A/D certainly provided a lot of red flags on that rally, any updates?




That's a week old but provides the GIST


----------



## Joules MM1

#sweetjesus #wotsyamargin 
you wouldnt let this team of mechanics fix your car wouldya?





(mines the non-set-n-forget insert^)


----------



## Triple B

WTF!
What is going on with AUD and now ASX??!! Is this a data glitch. Exactly why I dont hold fx , index or commods over the weekend.


----------



## Joules MM1

Triple B said:


> WTF!
> What is going on with AUD and now ASX??!! Is this a data glitch. Exactly why I dont hold fx , index or commods over the weekend.
> View attachment 91335




suss feed, suss volume


----------



## Triple B

yes . Checked against another account and not even close.Glad I didnt get on the wrong side of that .
First unusual data I have noticed with the broker for almost a year using them. FPM


----------



## Joules MM1

Triple B said:


> yes . Checked against another account and not even close.Glad I didnt get on the wrong side of that .
> First unusual data I have noticed with the broker for almost a year using them. FPM



that volume, it's of the cfd's ? in the 1k's as opposed to in the 1MM's ?


----------



## Triple B

yes cfd vol .not sure if the vol is from futures or where  from but the 15min chart big candle is about 330 contracts. The FX vol with FPM is through Deuschebank. Not sure about indices vol
The vol May be from liquidity providers.


----------



## Joules MM1

Triple B said:


> yes cfd vol .not sure if the vol is from futures or where  from but the 15min chart big candle is about 330 contracts. The FX vol with FPM is through Deuschebank. Not sure about indices vol
> The vol May be from liquidity providers.




it can only be the cfd turnover (front month tracking) ....it's fairly useless unless you can break it down to transactions at the offer or at the bid....but even then its based on a tracking future and the future itself leads so that'd be a better edge than what the cfd can be...altho, if you wanted a guide on when the crowd is pressing then it might be useful but it doesnt let you know if that's a trap or it's impulsive .....


----------



## Joules MM1

cmc's cfd's pos on asx200 ($xjo) are
retail 22% long
top clients 12% long

"because theyre hedging theirs stock holdings" nope
"because they have contra options" nope
"because theyre muppets with emotive logic" that'll do!

(yep, i'm long all this crud)


----------



## Joules MM1

hi high can the squeez go before those numbers flip ?

those #'s pretty much sum up retail dispo's


----------



## Joules MM1

aaand the ardent sellers (STO's) just hit another high at 83% sells for retailers and
88% sells for 'top clients'

nutters


----------



## Joules MM1

today we see consistant high % STO's (again!)
'top clients' printed 90% sells
'all clients' 88% sells

in the cash there are two resistance ratios converging at 5887 above that 5911 and 5924 above those we should see a strong swing in those disposed to selling ......we like to call that getting the F squeezed into realisation!


----------



## Joules MM1

that's Qi





https://www.optionstrategist.com/we...394569658&mc_cid=77cd986030&mc_eid=c5d2a13444

* Stock Market Commentary 1/18/2019*
* By Lawrence G. McMillan*
The oversold rally has carried farther than many had expected. This is not too surprising, for the market is attempting to fool as many people as it can. We have participated in this rally, in accordance with the buy signals from our various short-term indicators and those indicators are still on buy signals. We thus expect the short-term rally to continue.

But the $SPX chart is still negative. There is still a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, occurring beneath a declining 200-day Moving Average. That is a bearish chart. There is clearly support at 2350, the late December lows. On the upside, $SPX has overcome the resistance at 2600 and is moving into a more congested area from 2640 on up.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They have rather stubbornly been remaining at high levels and have only begun to sharply decline in the past couple of days.

Market breadth has been extraordinarily strong. Of course, the breadth oscillators are on buy signals and are deeply into overbought territory, after this many days of strongly positive breadth.

$VIX is still high enough, though, that its long-term trend is up, which is still a worry for the stock market. But a $VIX close below 16 would be bullish in that it would terminate the uptrend.

Most of our short-term indicators remain on buy signals, and thus we remain short-term bullish and longer-term bearish. That is a balancing act that may be hard to maintain. Right now, there seem to be a lot of bears on TV talking about "W" bottoms, retests, and resumption of the bear market. I would think that the current rally has to carry far enough so that a great number of these bears will have to relinquish their position before the market can turn lower again.

https://www.optionstrategist.com/ab...394569658&mc_cid=77cd986030&mc_eid=c5d2a13444


----------



## Joules MM1

sentiment, cfd-style
each one time/dated 
	

		
			
		

		
	







when price is clearly a series of HH's and HL's regardless of the framework/structure and the sentiment is so clearly skewed to the opposite point of view, it is probably in your favour to go with what price is saying than what the pov suggests it 'should be doing and should be doing any moment'


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## Joules MM1

in the SPA time for $xjo retail cfd's printed 79% STO's

the crowd continues to sell H/H's


----------



## Joules MM1

this is pure gut holding ...it must be agony.....i know...i used to do it too !
lack of technique and too much belief .....but, oh, that aching gut....


----------



## Joules MM1

due a small rotation to correct the recent $xjo upswing, this week we should see a swing in sentiment for both retail clients and top clients in cfd shorts go down from an average of 80% ..but to where?


----------



## kid hustlr

J,

Talking medium term, do you see this current push up as correctional and there will be another push towards the recent lows or do we continue to grind back to Oct highs?


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> J,
> 
> Talking medium term, do you see this current push up as correctional and there will be another push towards the recent lows or do we continue to grind back to Oct highs?




i think the downside is done within the larger monthly and quarterly uptrend, hence my bollocking on about (and taking the opposite position to) shorters (STO's)

maybe we'll get a fast rip downhill this week but the current construction looks to me like we have a bull
and it's got a small firecraker up its nonfeeding end


----------



## Joules MM1

btfd

we can expect few more of these.....so slow gotta chance to pratt around with charts...

$xjo $cash


----------



## Joules MM1

with the $dax action and overnight bias we should expect friday to have that snap-back for $xjo...note no window dressing last day of the month on local indexes


----------



## Joules MM1

breaking 5864.7 cash would be  a tell the typical wedge bullish idea has failed

at least for a swing south equal to the previous swings in the current upleg, a reset

the longer price holds within the wedge the higher the probabilities of continuation
never sell just coz its easy or feels right......
	

		
			
		

		
	




retail cfd's averaging 61% sells today .....small swing to bullish side but still heavy sentiment for more bear market mentality


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo has refused to roll over....looks uber bullish..easy trap! 

retail cfd's hovering 60% sells, top clients 63% sells


----------



## Joules MM1

superbowl day in the US

locally we have a team who are ardently set-up, they are an offensive teams dream come true, they take a position about their team and what it can achieve, but, more importantly for them, they view the opposing team as a bunch of wannabe losers who'll get dealt a blow, oh, for sure, real sooooon

watch that team talking at the end of the video, see how absolutely committed they are...they are the short sellers


----------



## Joules MM1

lot harder to transact in a smooth trend .....unless youre forced to transact due to the trend
#ifyaknowwhatimean



#knowyourtrend


----------



## Joules MM1

once upon a time (oh, here we go with the guru-shmooroo talk)
the thing we see in the $xjo was called the 'easy money' from a trend perspective, that is, you find the contextual swing low, like we have in the big monthly channel, ride that wave

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_wave

even so, for people who are inclined to lose sight that all risk remains the same regardless the underlying action in a trend, there are always outliers we cannot know about, this is random risk, like we saw in 1987 even tho trend comes back to the mean after a 5 to 6 sigma move on a monthly basis the trend brought about by basic tenets of supply and demand resume via the expression within the index(es)

so keep in mind that the easy rise carries all the same risk with the extent of the swing undefined while not affecting the endogenous trend by sudden and random exogenous events


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers reopens on a sell quickly restarts uptrend action, but, could be in a larger rotation to flatten out overbought after initial upleg ....#happynewyears #sizematters






$dax remains on a pullback sell atm .....we needs to see a lot more of thedownside construction to call a daily rotation to weekly downtrend....even so the retail and top-client sentiment is hovering around 60% bids so the selling thus far while is relaxed it's also easy buying for easy buyers and easy buyers are usually buying what someone is distributing.....#bbw


----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## Joules MM1

honkers follow-up on that res




top clients 55% STO


----------



## Joules MM1

a similar set-up using that cash price extremes worked here:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1009977/

the sentiment, via positions in the cfd, are way too bullish imho at 62% and 65% BTO's all clients and tops clients....we'll see, $dax has to go bid immediately or we go lower to test the next price extreme circa 10800 ....it's (cfd) already well below the 161.8% marker in the above cash chart ....so ....good for the STO's


----------



## Joules MM1

$dax
cfd has broken down leaving longs stranded...more to go
playing nearterm swings is best idea for mine in this traffic, keeping an eye out for rotations based prior levels most transactions appear to occur at is better play than looking for price extremes but any of them can be considered valid targets ....small size


----------



## fiftyeight

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 92012
> 
> 
> a similar set-up using that cash price extremes worked here:
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1009977/
> 
> the sentiment, via positions in the cfd, are way too bullish imho at 62% and 65% BTO's all clients and tops clients....we'll see, $dax has to go bid immediately or we go lower to test the next price extreme circa 10800 ....it's (cfd) already well below the 161.8% marker in the above cash chart ....so ....good for the STO's




I assumed possibly incorrectly that cfds made up only a small portion of total traders and anyone with size would be using futures. Add to this the you are only getting cfd data from one provider. I'm surprised there is any edge in knowing who is long and who is short. If there was an edge not sure they would give it away???


----------



## Joules MM1

fiftyeight said:


> I assumed possibly incorrectly that cfds made up only a small portion of total traders and anyone with size would be using futures. Add to this the you are only getting cfd data from one provider. I'm surprised there is any edge in knowing who is long and who is short. If there was an edge not sure they would give it away???




yes, for sure, there is no data structure that is not weak to some extent....so that means i have to intepret by size (as a %), when and where for what possible target that/those % are in place

keep in mind the nature of cfd's and who they attract, the % refer are not restricted to cfd's as it reflects sentiment mostly driven by emotive logic

 a summation

you might have a small sample size of cattle but still deduce general tendencies of a larger pac, it's fear, it's clumping, whuy its clumping, where it's going to feed or flee and where the cliff edge is, where the fulcrum is, does it fit previous same-place same-time same-size
and levels are still levels but how are they dealt out of cash hours....


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## Joules MM1

use it as you see its use-ability not how you see it based on some metric that everyone else says must be applied


----------



## Joules MM1

@fiftyeight 
here is a series still running as i type
i run  a lot of these types of plays, uber small with 2-3 size lots (relative to the uber small lots)
cfd's are in fractions or whole lots
i find the sentiment, if it trending or cramping, smooth or volatile, am i in news pending mode (no i already ran that one!) is there likely to be a cliff face when the low or high gets retested (yes) if the HOD or LOD gets retested a 3 time (no such thing as a triple top/bottom) then its a reversal play, so who's trapped? look at the sentiment, bidders at the low buying a fake low bargain

here you see a failed set-up, about 40% are wins, 60% fails no size contracts as the set-up was incomplete, i was not satisfied, i scrapped it a looked a for a better set-up, the range was clear, play for the range and one size to capture a break:


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## Joules MM1

while i'm at it, i forgot to mention about the 'orphan' looking contract sitting in the middle of the first chart....it's a size hangover from the previous downswing...as you see in the final screen i have one 'size' lot running ("size" is fitted the profile of that play and time/day/new/sentiment etc relative and  in context)

so that brings me to my point (!) about stops......stop placement is as arbitrary as knowing where a price will rotate....in other words because we cannot see into the future or know the future it is fair tosay that any stop placement is a measure of logic unto itself, so, i define a stop as the point i am less than satisfied the i understand the play, meaning, beyond this point i may not be wrong in context of one of the size plays but maybe wrong relative to the play i am running so not all stop placement ideas are linear, they are in context of the size and the play i expect to see happen relative to the size of the contracts at stake (while smaller size can mean wider range it can also mean more time wasted so that's a factor too but it's all within the cash hours...)

in the first chart using the orthodox method as a part of my routines, i scored a 1 leg down (as in 1 down, 2 up, 3 down, 4 up, 5 down = completed leg) so we have a 1 down with 2 up that goes A up, B news flash down, C up to complete 2nd leg up and that means #3 to come, #3's are typically strongest of all index moves in terms or direct moves on heavy volume (the news flash south was strong but and obvious fake in the whole auction set-up, it's part of the 1,2,3,4,5 structure)

if you didnt understand any of that, simply take the screen shots and see the context....."all-clients" and "top-clients" were very strong in the bullish bias.....but, interesting "top-clients" moves into a 55/45 bias with 45% saying no, we're the nearterm traders and we think we're headed south

so if there's no edge in this read did i guess my game plan?
is the read always correct - no
does the read suggest my context maybe wrong - maybe
does the read suggest i may be misinterpreting and trading with the crowd, an alert - oh yeah most def


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## Joules MM1

for the above post

see how (post news) price retakes the issue level, normal fair, but it suddenly runs out of bids, not get inundated, simply loses moment, sudden overlap, choppy, struggles, complete a context that the previous swing south was a first (1) down
the news sell after the struggling lift [A] completed by [C] an ABC... its the C move that says we're about to roll over....even tho i initially abandoned the sell group i began a new one soon as the set-up was clear
*



*


----------



## fiftyeight

Joules MM1 said:


> yes, for sure, there is no data structure that is not weak to some extent....so that means i have to intepret by size (as a %), when and where for what possible target that/those % are in place
> 
> keep in mind the nature of cfd's and who they attract, the % refer are not restricted to cfd's as it reflects sentiment mostly driven by emotive logic
> 
> a summation
> 
> you might have a small sample size of cattle but still deduce general tendencies of a larger pac, it's fear, it's clumping, whuy its clumping, where it's going to feed or flee and where the cliff edge is, where the fulcrum is, does it fit previous same-place same-time same-size
> and levels are still levels but how are they dealt out of cash hours....




I thought tracking sentiment of an index using the sample size of one CFD provider would be more like trying to figure out how sheep behave by tracking the sheep dog.

But I guess it is a good way to get an 'idea' of retail investor sentiment.

Nice setup there, one that sticks out well!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

there's a couple of quirks both $xjo and $xao share

when completing a retracement structure either index has  a propensity to display this simple trigger structure:

on the *first* leg down (first downswing) that leg will be *symmetric** to the *final* down swing  completing the whole larger retrace

that implies you have reached a conclusion of the retrace structure and you should see accompanying anecdotal evidence to support your conclusion that that structure is complete, the selling is now subsumed by the buying, liquidity is now to the buy-side,  a larger rotation is at hand

....do not confuse this is a trend rotation even tho it is a common occurence within the larger uptrend (weekly/monthly basis) because it can be equal to an ongoing corrective phase and be within the context of that larger size side zone

such measures as a double (or preferred triple) divergence of a simple RSI or macd should precede that final set-up, in the minimum you should observe momo drag and probably Twiggs money flow divergent where the retail money sells but the institutional money is flat or diverging

in the chart i point this out; the actual move and when you know you need to readjust to find that move

remember the tenet; when a move is over it's over! even so, levels are levels and risk is risk, so rather than thinking this is a tool for aggression think of it in terms of useful as a sit-back-and-wait even if it does not serve any other purpose for you

how to:


how not to:








* (usually 100% as i have never observed other price lengths)


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## Joules MM1

edit for the above remark


> * (usually 100% as i have never observed other price lengths)




i have observed same structures, but, upwards, that extend to 127.2%
although rare make for good markers within a consolidation phase where that outreach is within an ABC where the B outreaches and concludes on a 127.2% in the same way you see in the first chart (only upwards not downwards)


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## Joules MM1

keeping in mind this "quirk" that i use when it prints in the cash needs to be translated to the cfd and it often prints in the cfd while not printing in the cash
so you may find that a solid print in the cash might mean overnight futures jockies now see a rotation too but they want their position or they need to get out at best price (where the guy on the other side of the trade is weak) so they jack the price, cause a gap, soak all available contracts in their favour when a reset comes, and youre singing its the wrong trousers gromit, so, you know, wise up

to get around the "yeah but futures lead so why bother with this thing if its in the cash"

if you ride a bike with no hands on the handle-bars will you still reach the same destination as someone who does have their hands on the handle-bars?
yes, probably
is the risk different?
yes, probably
can you reduce the differential and increase the upside?
yes, i have (opening paragraph in this post)

liquidity does not adhere to "futures only lead the way" .... liquidity is just a dynamic beast like water finding its own level so saying only futures lead the way is arbitrary as liquidity is not a single defining thing it is an expression of supply and demand so there cannot be an absolute about the make-up of that supply and demand as there are two vehicles within which it can be expressed by different players at different times (not inc options/etf's alike) there is a frame work within which we can access that liquidity, the auction process, yes, that's rigid, but the expression of liquidity is not limited to one single instrument within the context and relative sizes therefor it is fair to say there is no limit thru which lens liquidity is focused, not as an absolute

...it's the totality, the markets psyche as a whole that defines and in that respect either vehicle will uncover the what the auction is trying to achieve even though, yes, futures mostly lead the way as an indicator of expression it also leads the way in overnight BS so being naive to that game does not mean you can say all measures and observations in either cash or the futures contract are less than valid when there is a validation process

for some reason, recently, trader experience and observation have been lampooned

observation and experience maybe and sometimes are as valid, on an equal footing, as mere mechanical ques ....because something something, ques are not always clues, something something


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## Joules MM1

the crowd correct again


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## Joules MM1

got trapped cuppla times and had to STO when looking for a ratio.....several occurred, taking the cash 
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
 signal in a bull


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## Joules MM1

thanks @peter2 

quick close-up of the above post look now honkers in the 3-4 cuppa time
cash now printing 6052's without retesting the intra low


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## Joules MM1

most of today retail cfd's remained at or above 80%STO's

old charts daily from the 2003 period are on a machine i am trying to rescue off the frozen disc ..grrr
the daily generic cash charts, since the december low, look similar compared to the price action in that big 2003 leg up so there is reason to think we have a renewed uptrend in major local indexes..using the cash construct as a template for entries/exits


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## Joules MM1

in context and relative size, bias is a killer:
so that survey's a big warning sign
a good one
sure
problem is, how on earth do you time that, how does it fit what price is doing versus the vagaries of not just exiting a long but setting up a short....it's clearly out of sync with pricing:





data: gallup 
overlay: SentimentTrader


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## Joules MM1

you are here...in the present .....or in the ether


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## Joules MM1

#parallel
Gordon Banks, fine sports person, ambassador and generous individual, RIP



> *Lee Marlow*‏ @LM_Marlow 33m33 minutes ago
> I interviewed *Gordon Banks* when I was at the Mercury. I told him my lad played in goal. I didn’t put his response in the story but it was so lovely I transcribed it and gave it to my son. It’s still on his bedroom wall today. God bless you, *Gordon Banks* x


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## Joules MM1

rotation #honkers  $hsi correcting upleg


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## Joules MM1

$hsi, scratched plan .....blew thru that ....bully az


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## Joules MM1

the cash remains clear, impulse legs and lack of sellers

the first question is always; how is the make-up of the auction transacting, are there more sellers than buyers or vice versa
next question, if in the present, there are no sellers in an impulsive uptrend, even tho other instruments, inter market liquidity maybe negative, does the STO carry more risk than the BTO or vice versa ?
if yes how do you know, if no does the BTO carry less risk by default?


----------



## Joules MM1

even with recent unusual deflation in the UK and retail worst since 2009 in the US, local $xjo shrugs off the urge to sell

retail cfd's remain 67% STO ....while $dax slumps south with $spx (cash) ..both likely to retest 50% ish of the daily upswings from deec 27th


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## Joules MM1

you gotta right to fight to party ....but, maybe not sell daily uptrend when the crowd is with the bid


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## Joules MM1

#rotation

looking for $xjo 5955's cash for a shallow pull
not precious on reach...pros would likely trigger 5800's as a roundish target


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## Joules MM1

#wow #trap
(as in the original meaning of 'wow' !)
uber bullish market $xjo ......forcing into plays and out of plays


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## Joules MM1




----------



## Joules MM1

if the simplest tenet of trading the direction of the recross of the opening price would stop this 





the failure rate of trading with the retake of the opening price is considerably smaller than the success rate depending on how long youre in the trade for and your target(s) ..this is one way of rebalancing trade disposition......

today: when the xjo opens and swings low then retakes the open price that's the direction the strength is, especially when the retake* is an impulsive move

whether just that day or part of a trend, the trend needs highest bias, esp when the retail crowd is emotively driven in the opposite direction

*(think of it as a break-out) while there may not be a follow-thru it would stop a trader from being stranded if disposed to the opposite direction of the major trend

a trader should consider logging this action over the next 'n' to get a decent sample of the use
but more than just as a trade tool, think of it's best use, the refocus out of directional bias and lower the risk that bias entails

that's polite rhetoric for pull your head out of your @rse and get correct focus


----------



## Joules MM1

and honkers goes bid.......again...and again.....

5mins prior to cfd close


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## Joules MM1

..and theyre too early for worm-turning !

targets 6101 > 6045's


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## Joules MM1

retail shorters down to 62% today .... chink in the armour ?


----------



## Joules MM1

not much price width most indexes .....

with that admission, flat earthers are still 66% short asx200/$xjo


----------



## moXJO

Who do you trade with?  
Sorry don't want to trawl pages.


----------



## cynic

moXJO said:


> Who do you trade with?
> Sorry don't want to trawl pages.



May not need to. The client sentiment screenshot, in post #347, looks like it was captured from the CMC Markets platform.


----------



## moXJO

cynic said:


> May not need to. The client sentiment screenshot, in post #347, looks like it was captured from the CMC Markets platform.



I remember trading with them when cfds first came out. There was suspect movement that would whip me out of a position overnight. It would literally go all the way just under my stop. And then head back up to where the actual market action was.

Does that kind of thing happen in any form still?


----------



## cynic

moXJO said:


> I remember trading with them when cfds first came out. There was suspect movement that would whip me out of a position overnight. It would literally go all the way just under my stop. And then head back up to where the actual market action was.
> 
> Does that kind of thing happen in any form still?



That seemed to be happening with many OTC CFD/Forex providers years ago, and for many years, I abandoned the practice of using stop orders, on account of such nefarious behaviour.

In more recent years, I heard rumours from a number of people working within the industry, that some of the larger players had cleaned up their act. However, I wasn't personally game, to put this to the test until very recently.

Last December, I decided to brush years of dust off, one of my old, stop order reliant, strategies, and put it to a small test, with one of CMC's forward CFD products, namely EUR/USD - Mar 2019.

I am happy to say that, the strategy has enjoyed smooth sailing for most of the quarter, and is currently on track for realisation of a respectable percentage profit, upon expiry of the March quarter (due in 15 days time).

This could never have happened with the type of price behaviour I repeatedly experienced during my earlier years of trading OTC derivatives.

I haven't been game to test this on the cash products of any providers, largely due to the lack of an independent exchange against which any pricing might be verified.


----------



## Joules MM1

moXJO said:


> I remember trading with them when cfds first came out. There was suspect movement that would whip me out of a position overnight. It would literally go all the way just under my stop. And then head back up to where the actual market action was.
> 
> Does that kind of thing happen in any form still?




it is clear from the sentiment readings that cfd's are a way to guess the way out of funds !

it is still true that naivety with overnight positions is still the same schtik

you can run a demo account and it is now spot-on as a cash account, what you get is what you see, however, same as before, no volume and no absolute correlation to the cash (in the instance of $xjo or metals) in extremes cfd price typically overshoots due to the pool in the cfd and depending on how you have the bar/spread set (b/m/o)

but mostly the game of knowing wtf youre doing has not changed .....and that's mostly the truth

yeah the spread is more expensive than some contracts sure but contracts are whole singular amounts cfd's can be run in fractions

there's a guy getting a lot of sympathy on twitter who was running a deriv on fx pairs and got spiked out
so this guy is typical of many traders i've seen over the years, blames the platform, he's got 20k and (get this) he shows a screen shot, no bad data, leaves a fx trade overnight and gets closed out with margin call, loses all money, doesnt say he has other pos's open either, so he's clearly put too much on and too tight on price width, says platform wont respond, gets close to libel comments about them, nearly all the sympathy he gets comes from other trader wanting his tiny cap .....this is classic stuff....

suggestions that shorters in an uptrend is hedging is non-sense, it's not options, the margin is just too high for it, players nature doesnt change when the instrument changes

this morning shorters sp200 went to 83% ...... 

now watch me make this putt


----------



## Joules MM1

edit

i agree a dom watch would be a good idea better entries/exits ...no vol on cf'd

exploring that now


----------



## moXJO

Thanks for the info guys.


----------



## Joules MM1

here's a clear mismatch of the cash versus cfd

the same swing as a price length in the cfd is longer than the same swing in the cash
however both adhered to common ratio legnths, in  other words, the discrepancy is not as important as the lengths of themselves, just because the cash is shorter than the cfd (or viceversa) doesn mean it invalidates either measure, whereas, i argue, it infers symmetry in the auction, in other words, both groups are in agreement but in slightly different liquidity, so long as the one has a clear measure (in both is rare) that is in context with the prior structure then it is higher prob that price will rotate within that size play back to the larger swing (today it's up)

secondly, what makes a long at the 6188 a low risk entry (at least we know .51cents below is incorrect)
the 6188 level is also a 100% (1:1) ratio of nearest larger retrace

to understand the idea look at both charts, look at the retraces, the ABC's, the constructions, get the context within the various sizes of plays and the larger daily construct
this may take you several attempts to get what's going on....and these are the easy ones as they are merely signals in a very, very, very strong bull, so, not a lot to work out, merely where are the higher prob entries with the lowest prob fails


----------



## Joules MM1

on the left hand chart (pos's not shown) does not display the larger time frame you see in the right hand chart

what makes the cash chart useful is that it continues to confirm the uptrend by only retracing a symmetry of the nearest largest pullback within the larger time frame, so mark that as 'exhibit useful'
if we get there and price begins to display rotation qualities, long is a good idea, very close stop
this is matched by the cfd making a 161.8% swing south, of a proposed first mini swing (A) and all pricing after that first mini swing,  during a lacklustre sesh, is clearly not impulsive, so, it is more likely to be a fake lift to a higher high, like a false break out, that'll terminate by coming back inside and make for a lower low than that first swing south (A) or at least attempt to take out the base of that first mini swing and then rotate back into an impulsive lift

again:
in the cfd chart
the grey A is equaled by the grey C at 161.8% after the fake break-out (B)

in the cash chart
yesterdays 1.30pm thru 2.50pm swing south was matched at 100% today (1:1 symmetry)

the instance of the cash and cfd being at different length intraday today is merely interesting yadda yadda
as i say it is only substantive that a measure occured within the context of the trend (when trending) and the size "makes sense", it is relative, part of a structure "that fits and makes sense" and does not conflict with what makes sense and if it did it would rebalance my disposition of what was unfolding

just cos we're in a rippa bull doesn mean some numbnut isnt going to cause a short term forehead stamp
sizing needs to be relative to risk based on that alone


----------



## Joules MM1

ok
sure
it'll work
a guru told you so.....


----------



## Joules MM1

if everyone is looking for a rotation at the same level ($spx cash 2820's) then all the pros have to do is withdraw buying at those levels, sellers conviction rolls in, pros get to buy at discounts, sellers get trapped

same  with technical dispostions, if the bias is set for a "something something big thing" that exists in the ether of ones brain then technical signals will also do as a surrogate reason to get heavy to one side and get comfortably trapped in that direction

not to confuse with this single idea that all technical signals cannot denote absolute direction at any one time, they can only confirm to you your own bias

when is a rotation simply a resistance in a larger trend - and selling a (non-existant) top - confused with a reversal to a downtrend ?

on the basis of _"you're right but you're dead right"_ ...secondary signals (and better to have a 3rd) are always required to confirm a reversal to a downtrend 
.....not seeing those, just seeing this:


----------



## Joules MM1

in the cash the 100% of the nearest larger pullback is 5995's .....that makes sense, esp if the pros decide to hold back on purchases for discounts

todays high at the ratios in the above chart are well held
STO's small size 

a rate cut is likely an uber punch in the face for STO's when/if it comes 
+ retreating #AUD/US$ bringing in a lot of o/s liquidity to local stocks (*.70000's looking a low swing oppo)

#RBA


----------



## Joules MM1

nope.......umm....91% STO's.....not me !!


----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## Joules MM1

wont be precious about it, small swings in a slightly larger rotation with honkers breaking a tight channel

this is the swing i thought would occur yesterday


----------



## Joules MM1

no bid

next level opens to 6185's cash


----------



## Joules MM1

the cash previous larger retrace (the first one just above the major daily rotation), sits at 6120 and very close to a minor 1:1 ratio of yesterday
the swing from todays low lacked impulsitivity even tho the move was "clean"
i suspect tomorrow we'll revisit down to 6120 area (currently 6159's implied cash afterhours) making a consolidation

sentiment took a decent swing too currently 42% longs afterhours, as high as 62% yesterday, when we get back to the daily high zone around 6270's reviewing the sentiment will tell us how much the ardent bears have given up, at which point we should also see an acceleration upside

or not ...nothing set in stone until it's on the left-hand side of the chart and then its opinion+print


----------



## Joules MM1

6060's now appear the nearest target for a un upside rotation $xjo


----------



## Joules MM1

@Modest @kid hustlr 

looking back of recent updays, retail were uber bear.....

now theyre buying the dip.....

i think we have a few choppy down days to go...at least that's my lean until spiked out


----------



## Joules MM1

lean coming


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> .... when we get back to the daily high zone around 6270's reviewing the sentiment will tell us how much the ardent bears have given up, at which point we should also see an acceleration upside
> 
> ...




after getting smashed out of yesterday STO's, forced into BTO's that acceleration has arrived 
i decided it was worth the efffort to go late and see how the US was fairing, lots of impulsivity across major indexes
...and back to normal viewing with retail being 24% long $xjo cfd (sp200)


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> after getting smashed out of yesterday STO's, forced into BTO's that acceleration has arrived
> i decided it was worth the efffort to go late and see how the US was fairing, lots of impulsivity across major indexes
> ...and back to normal viewing with retail being 24% long $xjo cfd (sp200)
> View attachment 93174




J,

is this the final 'i give up' push where the index rallies hard for several days and a medium term top is made?


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> J,
> 
> is this the final 'i give up' push where the index rallies hard for several days and a medium term top is made?




I also note the participation is not strong with XJO + 0.8% vs XSO 0.1%


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> I also note the participation is not strong with XJO + 0.8% vs XSO 0.1%




suprises me how well we've gone uphill in a short period of time, much like the march 2003 takeoff

been uber bullish todate but need a reprieve/reset.....but back then those swings were relatively shallow...the 6060 level i was looking for is only a standard dev 23.6% typical of bull legs....it'll be fast


----------



## Joules MM1

mixed bag of nuts, def not a usual bid day, some climaxes

back in sells


----------



## Joules MM1

cash signal, inverted ratio 127.2% ..explosive trap set yesterday ?


----------



## Joules MM1

harmonic, rare, tradeable 

stop 6136 if holding for the break of 6101
#diary


----------



## Joules MM1

as gold is setting up a strong move in either direction from compression with matching ratios both sides i have given little attention to $xjo today altho placed small size longs after basic ratio res was taken out this morning...looking like a 3rd leg upwards, note the need of sellers to get set short, not usually a good sign for them, a contra signal at its best, shall wait for this first leg to consolidate to find a location to size up
....right now, along with honkers (low ratio 1:1) both indexes looking bullish az


----------



## Joules MM1

part ii
cash look at the construction, impulsive legs up, correcting legs down


----------



## Joules MM1

#diary #observation #context #sizedmove #edu #typifyingsize #appplication #dax #xjo

EOM window sweep, cash rotates in a typical 127.2 extension inversion
127.2 rotations are contextual to the time frame, that means, if the daily extension rotation occurs at 127.2 it's significance is to that time frame, in this instance in fridays late arvo rotation on a 1 min basis it can be given relative size of the opposing move and unlike the daily size it does not affect the larger play

this is a high to low to high inversion (100% + 27.2) 
"window dressing ends" high > low > high






now compare that to this move in the $DAX a structural extension having large ramifications for the coming months


----------



## Joules MM1

#opinions from experienced heads:
*$xjo* Colin Twiggs
http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2019/03/30/asx-200-continuation-likely/
*$spx* Lawrence McMillan
https://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2019/03/weekly-stock-market-commentary-3292019


----------



## Joules MM1

the bottom is in thread is busy
the breakout alerts thread is busy
retail cfd's are 91% short at 11.27am

"so, heeeeerrr am i sitting in my tin-caaan, faaaar faaaar awaaay xjo is green and there's nothing they can doooo......"
traderziggy

edit: make that 92% at 11.30am !!


----------



## Joules MM1

the daily channel in the cash $xjo breaks its baseline at 6192's, based on that and a basic ABC ratio i am trading down to 6112's unless an impulsive rotation takes hold


----------



## Joules MM1

fondues back in style, melt-up

retail cfd's running 12-14% longs (lots of learning curves going on there, still have flashbacks to 2003/4 !!)


----------



## Joules MM1

the bull is in trot mode, all the pulls are shallow and fit the trend very well

retail STO cfd's remain extremely dumbly elevated consistently 85-90% range


----------



## Joules MM1

it is also a reality that the most cash is often raised  just after a low has printed in an index, as the index rises that cash pile is often lifted as price is seen as the best get-out likely to be achieved before the financial tsunami _really_ kicks in

conversely managers are the most committed at the peak of a bull that's going to go on forever and those managers carry the least amount of cash, they buy every bargain fake dip as the index(es) go down

ASX200 has been in a bear market since 2007 and a probability of a new government if the index revisits recent weekly lows in the large upchannel but the index is not reliant on what politicians do, the opposite is true, politicians are reliant on what a bull market can do to keep them in power which answers the question how come Australia has had such a large PM turnover compared to New Zealand which has a far smaller population and smaller GDP - the answer is 'which part of the multi-centurial bull market are they in?' take a gander at the NZ50 for insight if you can find a chart that displays when the current decadal run began

i think the local election has been called because the timing is right to do it, but, timing in a new bull phase is fickle because a strong dip back to retest the low can coincide nicely with electorate being fed-up with more bad-news  outlook, just a few weeks in a dipping bull is a mighty long time for a poorly-polling government, a price level can be set where we know the election will swing irrevocably

until both XAO and XJO make new altime highs we can consider we are still, technically, in a bear market that's "in a rally" - i think this is not the case and think we are well into the first major leg of a very strong uptrend that'll take several years to play out, each dip only serves to engender more fear about the unknown mostly because we are topical creatures affected by the topical-ness of media, whereas endogenous trends move on despite events, an endogenous trend is not reliant on suddent bullish events it is always ahead of those events, therefor, while people pile into cash for the next big calamity they are doing so on a guess work and sometimes that guess work will pay off but the truth is that when the crowd is the most ardent, the most committed to a story that hell-in-hand-basket is "so happening sometime next week or month or next quarter or next year"
that crowd is usually wrong - scared for the right reasons does not default to making making the right transactions

the stock market is an expression of fear or greed - the longer one has been in a market does not relate to that market it only allows that person to justify their reasoning, they express their  fear thru emotive reasoning

it is also fair to say that as Australia has been in this dirth of a funk is so long (12 years !!) without a new altime high to cheer on, the 2003-2007 bull phase is all-but forgotten
our politicians are uptight as many in the population feel, we're surrounded by idiots in other governments in other countries, but, all of that was true in 1974 thru 1980
so the current period, democratic processes are eroded, it's all bad news, new uptrend fight thru the veil of bad news, pundits of the next hell-hole rationalise every dip as the start of the next big diving thing and then ignore the next higher high in the index or rationalize its the best price to exit at
it's the classic sign of exhaustion with dealing with a nurtured fear, the selling becomes less about actual pricing and more of the tiredness of dealing with the fear of all the doomy stuff

projecting ones fear of a bear into the future based on the past takes a lot of educated skill, however trends do not take skill, they only require a point of exhaustion and that point of exhaustion comes when the mass are on the wrong end of the swing and the mass has a peak opinion, the opinion is at a crescendo and sentiment is always dragged behind price, always has and always shall, peak pessimism at the bottom, peak optimism at the top

if there is a (paraphrasing) banker out there somewhere that has not rec'd any calls from his high-nett-worth clients  and theyre in cash and he's advising staying cash and retail cfd's at averaging 85-90 short the sp200 its a pretty good signal there's a stampede going on to get out to stay out
its the inverse stampede you see at the top of a bull market, everyone is predicting more of the same thing only worse (bear) or better (bull)

i have never been convinced that investors set themselves into cash to cash in on the next major bull market, no, they set themselves in cash because they fear loss but they nearly always do this at the wrong end of the gig, they are attempting to forecast thru emotive logic

time, the only thing that cannot be bought or sold, only wasted


----------



## kid hustlr

Completely against the views of col twigs J.

Bull side strong side.


----------



## Joules MM1

$HSI cash printing  a nice down bar, if closing weekly bar is lower than last week (despite shortened week) then the odds of closing the gap is very good, the current bull phase requires a retracement, probably


----------



## Joules MM1

must be a guru somewhere 'got a lot to answer for'
90%sells


----------



## Joules MM1

@cynic 

 
video of my immaculate sells on honkers so far today


----------



## Joules MM1

cfd retail sellers hit peak whack-a-mole


----------



## Joules MM1

#structures #ratio 

how it looked 

and how it ran


----------



## Joules MM1

impressive surge $xjo

shorts have run around 90% again this week ......must be close to conversion time....


----------



## Joules MM1

technically, $xjo is on a break-out with a close at todays high 6390's (printing HH is not enough)

the momo i was expecting* should keep up for a few more sessions as we are in the middle of a construct for higher prices

$$

_"..she'll promise you more than the garden of Eden
Then she'll carelessly cut you and laugh while you're bleeding
But she brings out the best and the worst you can be.."_
billy joel


----------



## Joules MM1

$hsi ....honkers on the journey to close the gap, at least to cover the gap 
29170-29375


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo


			
				Posted on [URL='http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2019/04/26/asx-200-breakout-3/' said:
			
		

> April 26, 2019[/URL] by Colin Twiggs]
> *ASX 200 breakout*
> ASX 200 Financials broke resistance at 6050, signaling continuation of the up-trend after a weak correction. Rising troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. The next target is the August 2018 high at 6450.




...







> Long-term (LT) target for an advance is 7400 but I remain cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, and hold more than 40% in cash and fixed interest in the...




http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2019/04/26/asx-200-breakout-3/


----------



## kid hustlr

Lol twiggsy is great but he's been bearish since December!!


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Lol twiggsy is great but he's been bearish since December!!




defensive
a good sign for ascention
...if he was as super bullish as i am i'd be 

when the well  are a bit  and a bit  about the bull train and become easily  about all things remotely brittle and  about getting a fiscal  while remaining a logical   and  judicious investor then the bull may have a very long way to go before they become  initially, yet miles away from the illustrious signs of  let alone being  which leads to the  that stole the milk and became  and  and eventually leading to more of   and that's what he's concerned about

#skepticism


----------



## Joules MM1

time to correct the upleg, 6160 basic pullback down to 6030's 
a shallow pullback "fits" the monthly trend but there's no rule 

channel broken, first leg completed, value lower down


----------



## kid hustlr

Seeing it the same J,

I personally think the trump stuff is noise.

- Significant resistance level
- Bearish behaviour on a key fundamental trading day
- Election risk off?
- Market leaders / Golden Momentum stocks looking fragile (imo)

May take some time to unwind/play out and we may actually get a sucker punch higher (in which case I'll be watching breadth closely for divergence) however I think we go lower from here.

All part of a natural bull move - I'll maintain some stock risk but have adjust my filter as of today to neutral.


----------



## Joules MM1

nice to be holding the post election pop .....why did the government stay in = coz the stock market allowed it......it's a bull.....better the d!ckheads you know than the d!ckheads you dont know

cfd BTO's are 16% and regularly sub 10% = players are more than 90% short overnights ......mkay


----------



## kid hustlr

How bullish are you J?

I'm not saying this can't go on for a little longer but a few of my breadth indicators are starting to fire up!

I mentioned several weeks back I'm only circa 50% invested and that remains the case however the last few days have made me more and more nervous as I watch the market darlings sell off under the cover of a top end of town (couldn't help it) bank rally


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> View attachment 94831
> 
> 
> How bullish are you J?
> 
> I'm not saying this can't go on for a little longer but a few of my breadth indicators are starting to fire up!
> 
> I mentioned several weeks back I'm only circa 50% invested and that remains the case however the last few days have made me more and more nervous as I watch the market darlings sell off under the cover of a top end of town (couldn't help it) bank rally




remain with the strength, still, i can see how the adv/dec print would be a pause for thought if we only apply a context of obvious-ness
if we apply a principal of structure the context maybe different, either story is as valid as each other within their own stories

keep in mind as we get to the top of the recent rush we were at election time, but we know that these things are subsumed by the major trend but that doesnt mean price cannot make new higher highs on weaker volume and then have higher prices force non-comittal liquidity to chase the bid, leading to a weaker higher high and  eventually the adv/dec catches up with price, the advance decline does not always lead price, does not always lag price, always needs context..so the advance decline being a measure of commitment in toto does not always allow us to interpret in context when viewed thru one lens (print)...if we backtested the adv/decline we'll find instances where the indication held divergence but price kept going for many months then the adv/dec appears to rejoin the psychology of price plus the rotation of other areas of liquidity cross markets that changes the value of the index

another way of looking at it is this way: the orthodox elliott structure says an ABC can make new print highs even tho we usually see an A/low followed by a B/lift (lower high) finished with a lower C/low where the second low (C) is lower than A...in a fake new print high the B/high will exceed the previous high (start of A) with a higher low (C) than A  _and _ not be supported by the adv/dec line - the lack of adv/dec line progress is commensurate with that chase - so we see new highs but only supported by thin liquidity as the psychology of the market gets ahead of itself....the market remains in bull mode and is getting ahead of its perceived value ....this is normal in major trends

price can remain out of whack for extended periods and then fundamental changes add resurgence to an already belting uptrend

the bottom line is the levels we play not the evidence we weigh (oh, yeah, i did that!)

one thing i would say is when we got the post-election pop i pared back thinking that that would be a rotation and intently watched the screen for most of the first 20 hours to see the "sell this bar" signal..but it didnt come, tending to confirm the idea that not only was the existing government re-elected (with strength) but that the market has confirmed it's own uptrend that re-election gave permission for liquidity to come off the side-lines...this types of thinking is not really my forte but it all fits ..again, if you contextualise that into weaker highs in the adv/dec line you see fear that a chage in government would be detrimental and the money that drive trend was uncommitted...so now there are no excuses and if we see a lower high in the coming weeks in the adv/dec then sure that means we're in rotation mode...also keep in mind the cfd mass commitment to shorting this uptrend, not just occasionally but extreme positions as price rips new highs.....


----------



## Joules MM1

holding bid honkers, cash level, stop 27640 ....


----------



## Joules MM1

swimming the channel(s)
21day + 13week Twiggs money Flows are over flowing !
inserted weekly channel (which is also in a monthly bull channel)
new altime highs only weeks away at this pace, upon which, time for a smack in the moosh fora reset


----------



## Joules MM1

#infamy #squeezed


----------



## Joules MM1

identifying rotations
#implications of size

$HSI


----------



## Joules MM1

failure to follow thru with an impulsive lift and coming back inside what would normally be a pull-away event takes me out of the play, lack of bids to break thru offers and the extreme (70% BTO's) retail crowd does not bode well for honkers at the moment ....it needs to sow some doubt in the bullish crowd who should not be so bullish in this large pullback within the weekly trend....


----------



## Joules MM1

the chop and lack of follow-thru allows price come back inside, even tho todays swing (completing yesterdays low) was slightly wider than the usually lifts on the way down it was not bey enoughmargin to consider we're close to a resumption of the major uptrend, plenty of tiny swings in between tho


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo
todays cash low is slightly shy of a standard pullback 1:1 ratio, lack of further selling look like a decent entry for longterm low (not withstanding the bs overnight swing)


----------



## Joules MM1

protecting 6429's cash into close, reducing size for the o/n bs


----------



## Joules MM1

HSI goes bid and so do i .....on the roundish 27k level

allowing to 26960's


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> HSI goes bid and so do i .....on the roundish 27k level
> 
> allowing to 26960's



that plan went to poopretty quickly, making this week hard for myself more time getting out of garbage longs than anything else!


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> that plan went to poopretty quickly, making this week hard for myself more time getting out of garbage longs than anything else!



Unfortunate, but is what sometimes tends to happen, when one chooses to hang alongside Seng.


----------



## Joules MM1

aus market hangs in tough as leading small indexes cue that major indexes had been doing all the heavy lifting, my go-to SML hgh beta index has been a  very good tipper on 'primary' trend action


----------



## Joules MM1

#rba #rates .....no rejection .....liking the bidside here


----------



## Joules MM1

happy bids on extreme sell-side sentiment in pos's for retail cfd's

forgot to add this observation for the long idea:


----------



## Joules MM1

iii

and how's our channel fairing up? ......up is the word


----------



## Joules MM1

up close look at the rba rotation (at the base of the channel)
liquidity expanding tonight...... at least a relief bounce in $spx/$dax + PM's ripping north


----------



## Joules MM1

US/Aus indexes looking healthy
NZ market is probably in a larger rotation now the 10k level has has hit and is being retested, there's probably a sense of stretched value in that market


----------



## Joules MM1

$dax on cash symmetry today....maybe something maybe nothing...small pullback to reset last 4 inclusive sessions






attention to the NFP's espesh after a big miss in the pre-NFP #'s 


> 8:15am USDADP Non-Farm Employment Change *actual 27K* forecast 185K previous 271K



...big miss

indexes will tend to be slushy until nfp's are done


----------



## Joules MM1

$dax ....taste of things to come ?


----------



## Joules MM1

#observation #cash $xjo
#harmonic #ratio 






if you know everything, not a student, think there is only one way, your way, despite the repetition of proof that other ways are effective and actionable within a correctly focused and procedural structure, then, at that point, when you speak from a mountain of self-dominance - a dis-service is given


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers is absolutely smashing upwards today, way more than an impulsive correction would to reset a downtrend....... and i've only had chance to take a few small bto's as my focus is on PM's .....needless to say wit dax/spx futes popping at their opens the $xjo should have a small rocket which is nice as i'm holding longs in this bull

read Colin Twiggs on the weekend who has pulled an Alan Kohler with a huge "i'm out of this" statement
retail cfd's on SP200 closed saturday morning a whopping 95% STO's

bulls 1 nervous nellies 0

$hsi $spx $dax $xjo

http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2019/06/08/asx-200-zero-confidence/

https://www.optionstrategist.com/we...394569658&mc_cid=399157e848&mc_eid=c5d2a13444

 Stock Market Commentary 6/7/2019
By Lawrence G. McMillan
McMillan Option Mentoring

On Monday of this week $SPX was near its lows at 3pm. But from there, there has been massive buying all week. However, the $SPX chart is still bearish, because there are lower highs and lower lows on its chart. Oversold rallies typically carry from their lows up to and slightly above the declining 20-day moving average. That's exactly what this rally has done so far (the 20-day MA is just below 2830).

There is clearly support at 2730 now, and that's in the same general area as the 2720 support from early March. As for resistance, the first remaining resistance level is 2900. Above there, of course, is the massive double top at 2940-2950.

The equity-only put-call ratios have generated new buy signals, according to computer analysis of their charts.

Market breadth has seen some cross-currents, but both breadth oscillators are on buy signals at this time.

Volatility remains at very low levels, and thus is generally bullish for stocks. Recently, it seemed that $VIX might be developing a long-term uptrend, but that did not materialize.

In summary, there are mixed signals. The new buy signals from put-call ratios and breadth are somewhat at odds with a still-bearish $SPX chart. Unless $SPX can close above 2900, the bears still have a chance.


----------



## Joules MM1

nice lift late arvo for xjo

stampeding over the carc_asses_ over exuberant sellers


----------



## Joules MM1

the intelligence game versus the trending game:


----------



## Joules MM1

another constructive day, looked sloppy - the build is trendy


----------



## Joules MM1

and another one: context is revert to trend from abc symmetry

#cash $xjo


----------



## Joules MM1

STO's
with the offer today


----------



## Joules MM1

that sell smell didnt evaporate 

#RBA pump n dump on the cut


----------



## Joules MM1

Oct end 2007 SP200 cfd front month contract (depending on your desk) 
reached and rotated at 6851.50

.sooo...not long now


----------



## Joules MM1

add to that the current front month retail positions remain at a pessimistic 
(and players getting royally skrewd over) 90% sell to open

that aint hedging, that's just selling a top that doesnt exist ...


----------



## Joules MM1

something diff for this thread, same vein 

about to find out if i've royally skarrewd myself with this high #XAUUSD

#truncation


----------



## Joules MM1

2 of 2
tradingview cfd


----------



## Joules MM1

$dax $dax30 cfd #ratio #symmetry

arrows=BTO #riskdefined


----------



## Joules MM1

picking up speed, in the middle of the run with the "cannot be true" crowd STO's at regular 90-92%
theyre selling the never ending top

(buy to opens 8-10%) 

cash view w channel ....i suspect we'll hit the top of the channel as we go to make a new altime high

in 1's n 2's


----------



## Joules MM1

nice open

with the bid


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> nice open
> 
> with the bid




#confluence #livestudy #trade $$


----------



## Joules MM1

trades are in real time, focused on the right side of the chart, based on the left side of the chart, measures, some experience and some naivety, risk defined


----------



## Joules MM1

big sell in dax cfd overnights, with the offer

upside is limited in this environment


----------



## Joules MM1

a move back above yesterdays cash high would be a good qualifier to hold small size overnight
when honkers opened it took a small hit then began to climb, the euro/us scene not as impactful in asia

risk defined


----------



## Joules MM1

not surprising a compressed dont-wanna-do-anything sesh

that means we'll skid south when the cash is closed unless euro zone goes bid

hanging onto dax sell


----------



## Joules MM1

ha, no sell, with the bid

price doing all the talking, sentiment remains rank to the sell side, much further to go north


----------



## Joules MM1

technical analysis is often a like Larsen






#ratio #rotation >6600 zone


----------



## Joules MM1

it's a bull


----------



## willoneau

I was interested in looking at trading share CFD's with Commsec until i read about the over night 2% fee.


----------



## Joules MM1

on a down day today
we're in frothy territory but unless/until the current daily upchannel snaps these swings remain constructive bull trend activity


----------



## Joules MM1

was a good day to sit on a short with zero signals for a long, however the dees 2018 channel is not (yet) broken even with a throng of retail voices calling a top 
$xjo

a protective sell after a new altime high (which itself doesnt mean squat) with a strong sell in the US would appear a normal set-up - not a bear market - and very few ever pick a top that hails a bear market - understanding the difference defines hanging in too long and selling (equities) too early

a little bone of contention about channels
the whole gist of two lines to draw a channel is to isolate where and when to exit, but it misses the construct of a trend, to get to that construct one must define how the construct is - well -constructed
and to do that we must first define that a channel is not point a to point b alone, it  is from the confirmation point to the next confirmation point, therefor this channel is taken from the first significant pullback that becomes the confirmation that the upside has a reliable construct and the base of the channel has two further confirmations, price may and often does exceed the roof of the channel but it should not close below the channel floor in the space of 2 bars (yesterdays open and todays close)
if we were to take the channel from the first price then we do not have any consistancy or evidence that we are doing anything more than picking an ongoing random price above the entry point so there is no reliability and it negates any value in trying to "box" what price is doing


----------



## Joules MM1

snapped out of the channel in a major bull run

money on the bid side at this mornings low, but, not a great time to be precious on any moves
a 33% kick back would be  a normal rip...sloowww rip


----------



## just_jay

@Joules MM1 what do the green lines, green dots and blue arrows on your chart represent?


----------



## Joules MM1

just_jay said:


> @Joules MM1 what do the green lines, green dots and blue arrows on your chart represent?




arrows = buy to open (or sell to open)
green lines are sell to close (i use to mark them on all charts as 'arrows=BTO')


----------



## Joules MM1

the players who caused the most recent move are done




lol, timing


----------



## Gringotts Bank

All is well if the trade balance news causes a rally.  I don't feel it will though.  Good news that is heeded signals market health and balance; good news which is ignored is bearish, as you know.


----------



## Joules MM1

first basic % roll up is passed, short covering en mode and quiet accummulation when supply  dries up

cat on a hot tin roof approach ....but lean into it when allowed


----------



## Joules MM1

all out 81's 
trapped under the 27.2 bus 

slaved by a sagging honkers


----------



## Joules MM1

someone might find this an interesting research
wolfe wave in $spx


----------



## Joules MM1

trapping game ......honkers catches a bid


----------



## Joules MM1

and a follow-thru sell signal
price almost hits the 38.2 on  a simple ABC where C = A at 100% (ratio of 1:1 symmetry)


----------



## Joules MM1

failure to get an impulsive bid or break basic 38.2% return, prints a simple abc against the downswing, allows for small overnight sells to remain......clearly we have broken the channel i've been listing, so now have a basic sideways/downward swing that is correcting a very strong bull leg

one should be aware of conversations that serve to set-up emotive logic
account killers


----------



## Joules MM1

bitcoin cfd is on another bull tear ....nice, very good constructive trend


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> bitcoin cfd is on another bull tear ....nice, very good constructive trend


----------



## Joules MM1

the fear team asleep today ....that's nice !

xjo and honkers on the bid and so am i


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> the fear team asleep today ....that's nice !
> 
> xjo and honkers on the bid and so am i




it's important (to me at least) to differentiate, give perspective-to and context-to, being with the bid and being long

with the bid is a momo idea but does not give context, with longs is trend-based and can consist of overnight positions, when trending the futures can attain most of the next days price length

this allows to differentiate between protective intra day ideas and trend ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

skinning cats requires ignoring which breed of cat just which correct knife to ......you know


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> was a good day to sit on a short with zero signals for a long, however the dees 2018 channel is not (yet) broken even with a throng of retail voices calling a top
> $xjo
> 
> a protective sell after a new altime high (which itself doesnt mean squat) with a strong sell in the US would appear a normal set-up - not a bear market - and very few ever pick a top that hails a bear market - understanding the difference defines hanging in too long and selling (equities) too early
> 
> a little bone of contention about channels
> the whole gist of two lines to draw a channel is to isolate where and when to exit, but it misses the construct of a trend, to get to that construct one must define how the construct is - well -constructed
> and to do that we must first define that a channel is not point a to point b alone, it  is from the confirmation point to the next confirmation point, therefor this channel is taken from the first significant pullback that becomes the confirmation that the upside has a reliable construct and the base of the channel has two further confirmations, price may and often does exceed the roof of the channel but it should not close below the channel floor in the space of 2 bars (yesterdays open and todays close)
> if we were to take the channel from the first price then we do not have any consistancy or evidence that we are doing anything more than picking an ongoing random price above the entry point so there is no reliability and it negates any value in trying to "box" what price is doing
> 
> View attachment 96598




and now we have a new one, symmetric, just like the old one only biiiiggerrrr, still smells like teen uptrend to me


----------



## Joules MM1

both retail and top clients are heavily short .....a squeez is the mostly likely result
the typical inside range to secure a low did not occur this morning, a bid on honkers and that'll support bids locally






arrow=BTO


----------



## Joules MM1

both the cash index and cfd appear to close on a bully bias and structure, as is normal at a major low price will typically slop around as the money that moves markets gets set in, all the weak hands fall out and strong hands pile in, we havent retested the low, printed a symmetric channel, now there's no excuse from the bulls we lift or sprint for the exits (not withstanding the overnight bollox)


----------



## Joules MM1

you see it now


----------



## Sir Gordon Gecko

Hi Joules 

sorry to break into your thread, wondering if you can advise which broker you use and platform to trade the XJO, i trade the ES using NT8 usually but the time zones is a challenge, so i'm looking for a broker with a good platform something that at least trades of a chart rather than an order window, 

Kr Angelo


----------



## Joules MM1

Sir Gordon Gecko said:


> Hi Joules
> 
> sorry to break into your thread, wondering if you can advise which broker you use and platform to trade the XJO, i trade the ES using NT8 usually but the time zones is a challenge, so i'm looking for a broker with a good platform something that at least trades of a chart rather than an order window,
> 
> Kr Angelo




cmc

depends on your sizing, you'll find the spread expensive, but, again, that depends on the size youre using and the context and/or target versus the risk youre prepared to deal

with the bid (and honkers)


----------



## Joules MM1

been a while since holding longs over the weekend has support in the price structure

and in the back ground the nasdaq almost at new altime highs
honkers on a breakout upwards
----------------------------------------
Walter Murphy@waltergmurphy

New all-time high in NYSE daily cumulative a-d line. Even nicer.


----------



## Joules MM1

#observations 
Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
Today's [yesterday aest] upside volume was the highest since 2011


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo cash rotation on 38.2% pullback today completes the move that corrects recent upleg, that creates it's risk long entry level
5887's cash 5885's front month cfd
btd


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> $xjo cash rotation on 38.2% pullback today completes the move that corrects recent upleg, that creates it's risk long entry level
> 5887's cash 5885's front month cfd
> btd




how it went post 38.2 and how the cfd closed - with the bid


----------



## Telamelo

Joules MM1 said:


> how it went post 38.2 and how the cfd closed - with the bid
> View attachment 104939
> 
> View attachment 104940



Anyone know how we may to try to find "long dated expiry options say around 2023/24" as currently listed/trading on the ASX please.. as wouldn't mind creating a watchlist for reference etc.

Appreciate it if anyone knows of a link they could please share that shows option codes/price etc. with future expiry date.

Thanks tela


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/...e&underlyingCode=xjo&expiryDate=&optionType=B
20/21 above 
23/24 time decay = value death

warrants may be a better alternative
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/...erlyingAsxCode&underlyingCode=xjo&expiryDate=


----------



## Roller_1

@Joules MM1 do you know if you can plot closed trades on the charts on CMC? Like you get with the arrows for open trades?


----------



## Joules MM1

Roller_1 said:


> @Joules MM1 do you know if you can plot closed trades on the charts on CMC? Like you get with the arrows for open trades?



R1
they havent lifted their game enough for that....i suspect they cannot achieve it without a sh!tload of code .....the best you can get is to dl the xl of stats and plot your own, certainly doable
the other challenge is (for mine) the trades are fractional, the advantage is say 10 bto then scale out of the single bid in 1 lots, for example, leaving half contract open, so you'd have bto x 10 (1 long x 10 whole contracts) scaling at 1 x 9 + 1 x .5 (.5 remains open bid)

so even if you dl the xl it is only useable if you have complete roundtrips, if you buy to open 10 then consecutively sell to close 9 x 1 plus .5 you'll have to code a truckload to match, very labour intensive, it belies that i cannot get a read on alpha that way, so i dont  worry about it, it's not how i judge results, rather the fractional advantage over single single cost per rount trip offer me "better' flexibility over broker cost per single contract, the ratio of brokerage remains the same, what is flexible is the fractional, fractions are great for chop, as a % percentage risk is a constant but the applied realtime risk is lower


----------



## Joules MM1

when the selling exhausts but no bids pile in, the question is how manufactured was the sell, what is the likely target liquidity group want to achieve, what is the auction trying to achieve, where is a rotation likely to occur, what is the busiest (vpoc) interaction level ?


----------



## Joules MM1

if it's a zonal trade, not a measured move trade, the zone is a range to target without restricting applied risk (not all contracts will size the same and have the same risk level)


----------



## scholesy

Nice one I'm holding a runner from 5870sish. Most of the down move was done overnight so unlikely it would continue in the cash session.


----------



## Joules MM1

iii

in this instance you see all the trades, the bulk, as same size, fractional can work best, some levels wont be reached, some positions are larger with nearterm targets well below the assumed level to achieve, this shapes risk (keep in mind i am doing this in real time it's a challenge to type to thought etc)


----------



## Joules MM1

iv

agree, scholsey, $dax did the major drag, no honkers means $xjo/spi runs unto itself so it plays "cleaner" plays within plays ...we still have some ways to go to complete the current downswing tho, maybe retest 5800's thru base of the channel then resume upleg.....all context

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kfORRIgP/


----------



## Joules MM1

v 

because it's zonal allowing 'heat' while keeping the boundaries as context
we should still reach structural targets


----------



## Joules MM1

vi

plays within plays


----------



## Joules MM1

inspecting the structure






= never trust a thrust applies, sellers look to sell strength


----------



## Joules MM1

higher targets to go, not fully suggesting the retrace is complete, with the channel tested overnight bodes well for longs but not being precious for futures/cfd's as the swings are different, yet, construction suggests daily uptrend still in mode (as context for bias)


----------



## Joules MM1

rotational upside target 5909 is met as a 1:1 swing

longs beware here

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wZBJwFlq/


----------



## Joules MM1

when price drives the way it has today it is best to treat it as unauthentic, the question is who best benefits from the drive, what is the set-up that's being created?


----------



## Joules MM1

at the base of the channel bulls will work to hold this, slugfest
https://www.tradingview.com/x/V9xXJ82s/


----------



## Joules MM1

squeez

if youre short and uncomfortable it usually implies you've reached the limit of your knowledge but your memory tells you youre on the wrong side .....traders at odds with themselves AND the market take hits harder because all traders take hits but not all traders can accept the basis of the hit, the exit of a trade being squeezed can either be method based or emotive based, one is repeatable the other is dumb _when_ repeated

when on the right side of a slugfest.... type something inocuous to people who dont care .....


----------



## Joules MM1

#nyse  advance-decline
from Walter Murphy


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RlxWJpgR/
in the above we hit a standard return/retrace low to high of 38.2% of the 3rd (of a 5 leg lift)
it is unlikely the retrace is complete and we'll look to retest todays high*** + a small return before back on our bully bike north
ripping 5891's in the cash would not be a good sign for the bulls so that's the bias uncle point for mine

price activity is almost in the middle of the upchannel
basic count: https://www.tradingview.com/x/iRsCsTWC/
with honkers looking bullish and us/euro still punching upwards the local scene bodes well for longs

*** (which rotated at 127.2% inverted ratio small yet clear in the front month cfd)


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers having a melt-up
xjo having a meh up .....

selling every high you see ?


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> ...ripping 5891's in the cash would not be a good sign for the bulls so that's the bias uncle point for mine




and we're there, in the cash the 61.8 5897 has held thus far slightly below the base of the upchannel
time for the sellers to put up or shut up
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JwQAoTsv/

structure suggests the channel remains intact

61.8 as a % is rare on the $xjo, just the nature of the make-up of the aus market it tends to ratios other markets dont, it implies the emotive nature of trade ....so long as there is cheap credit debt to drive the trend we'll stay bullish


----------



## Joules MM1

part ii
another technical reason to bid the 5900 round number
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZHVw4eZY/

rotations are common at an inverted 127.2%


----------



## Joules MM1

iii 
$hsi cfd had a gap up now closed and bids are in during late aussie session ..they'll drag up the post-cash sp200 cfd


----------



## Joules MM1

old axiom 
never sell a flat market

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BfW587vd/


----------



## Joules MM1

Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
1m
Today was the 44th straight day the NYSE new highs exceeded new lows. Since 2016 similar runs have been capped in the 52-59 day range. Tick tock?

-----------------------------------------------------
until the $xjo  breaks it's series, despite the slugfest, looks more like the aftermath of an outdoor concert, we have to stick with the excruciating trudge uphill .....great bull phases are made of not much at all and sucks in all the opposing opinions


----------



## Joules MM1

tight range waiting on other markets for liquidity signals, both longs and shorts get trapped in this stuff, smaller size smaller targets

bias is north


----------



## Joules MM1

when price cannot break a basic swing ratio, when the stepping pace is slow and there is an intent to get prices lower (or higher in a downtrend) we should look for price structure to be as clean as possible in what is probable rotation

in play:


----------



## Joules MM1

a fade the faders day
this action opens lower lows when 5989 breaks toward 5875's cash


----------



## Joules MM1

xjo is also sitting on the top of the vpoc zone 17th > 24th  june, compression is tightening


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/x3MFj86A/
a redrawn channel to reflect bias, the 5891 uncle* didnt get broken in the cash, bid/offer was fairly balanced today, we should have seen a pile off sellers had locals thought theyre about to see a strong pullback and guru-watch have all got an opine on why we 're due another pullback

channels are merely a guidance, pseudo trendlines to take action on when broken but breaks needs to be decisive from a trend perspective, not like the current mosh of upwards corrective activity
* https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1080422/


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers longs be strongs too


https://www.tradingview.com/x/VuOKD8t4/


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> honkers longs be strongs too
> 
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/VuOKD8t4/




xjo very trendy
making a very tight impulsive series of HH's honkers appear to have answered the question


----------



## Joules MM1

$dax cash/cfd ran into and stopped at an inverted 127.2% rotation
price need to print a lower low to offer an idea that more than technical resistance at play


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> $dax cash/cfd ran into and stopped at an inverted 127.2% rotation
> price need to print a lower low to offer an idea that more than technical resistance at play




sell is good to run if this retest (38.2) holds
https://www.tradingview.com/x/goO7ZznG/


----------



## peter2

We want the Nasdaq to fall over first, then all the domino's will follow. Nasdaq is tickling new all time highs again. Huge EU stimulus announced should help DAX (the index, not the shorts).

_ps: Dona's homophonic wit went over my head also. Do'h!_


----------



## Joules MM1

$dax futes did follow-thru after the cash but i was closed at that point better to be optimistic about outlook without being trade naive
i suspect the xjo will be higher than yesterdays high next two sessions


----------



## Joules MM1

retract that


Joules MM1 said:


> i suspect the xjo will be higher than yesterdays high next two sessions




sp200
failure to catch a bid today not a good look esp with honkers  which got halfway back up the larger downswing and been held (held at .5236% cfd, 50% cash)

small quirk harmonic saw xjo hit yesterday plus the overlapping of the smaller swings does not bode well for longs it's more likely we'll have a swing low relative to (breaking the channel decisively)
5684s as a ratio relative to the 9th july > 16th june swing

today we overlapped the 16th high in cash which is less than ideal, another clue the upside has lots it impulsive construct locally.....clearly the selling is not impulsive either so week over week that still favours the bull
yesterday allowed smart money to sell the strength

pig slops


----------



## Joules MM1

continuing sell signals in $dax (?)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rphXzpKa/


----------



## peter2

DAX: Still looking bullish on Daily and 4H charts for me. 
FYSE: This is looking much weaker and would short next rally failure near top of this daily channel.

However that's hard to do while the Nasdaq remains strongly bullish. I'd need to see the Nasdaq close below Monday's (20/7/20) to negate that huge bullish day. Tonight's TSLA results may do that. US buyers will need a major shock to knock their rose coloured glasses off.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> DAX: Still looking bullish on Daily and 4H charts for me.
> FYSE: This is looking much weaker and would short next rally failure near top of this daily channel.
> 
> However that's hard to do while the Nasdaq remains strongly bullish. I'd need to see the Nasdaq close below Monday's (20/7/20) to negate that huge bullish day. Tonight's TSLA results may do that. US buyers will need a major shock to knock their rose coloured glasses off.



https://www.tradingview.com/x/vznH0tGY/

had some work to do but that ratio has held ...dax longs will give this up and add momo to sells
proviso: brking 13077's confirms the ratio is valid within trend construct


----------



## Joules MM1

very good effort to box by the bids, lotta soaking $dax 13090 13110 first time around, second time the bids couldnt hold it

before and after
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6Digcba1/


----------



## Joules MM1

sp200
xjo continues to hold the channel , make HH's ....despite the messy construct, fighting the money that's making headway is not  a smart idea ......
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NrRbSni6/


----------



## Joules MM1

$dax/$spx overnight cash implied on the sell*
$xjo broke channel floor*
$hsi on the sell*

*impulsive


----------



## Joules MM1

Walter Murphy

@waltergmurphy
·
48m

Two weeks ago the weekly Coppock Curve had a bullish bias for all 11 S&P sectors. This week it's down to six. Importantly, one of the five sectors with a bearish bias is the big one -- Tech


----------



## Joules MM1

just sayin

$xauusd
when it dumps, after an almost hyper move, sheds 75 downhill and the retail crowd goes 75%long/25%sel yet the aftermath cannot make above a basic 38%2 retrace (stuck under it)
that's not ideal ingredient to press the "incontrovertible trend" buy button

how far before "value support" comes in ?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Uonp6cC/


----------



## Joules MM1

window dressing all done early this month ?


----------



## Joules MM1

retail cfd are printing 71% long at midday

xjo cash hit a ratio resistance, fell out of the channel, has an impulsive sell structure, retail went from average 44% long uphill to 71% at todays low zone

liquidity has two sides: bid side, sell side

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rQzd1GM8/


----------



## Joules MM1

today looks strong but it's not an elephant bar type where you can set n forget the uptrend
..by taking out todays low, it'll confirm the set-up per the above chart, a truncation move, truncations need confirmation taking out todays cash low would confirm that truncation, the sell will be fairly swift below todays low, a single session doesnt make trend yet it can place context at several levels of trade, shifting liquidity from bid side to offer side, more in relation to how the auction wants to test and retest levels of value (for the $xjo at least) 

regardless of the % in price lengths relative to external indexes the $xjo remains a good pre-emptive clue/cue to what those external indexes are likely to do...


----------



## Joules MM1

@Modest 

STO
near risk, target met, $xauusd ?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qjDjZcHs/


----------



## Joules MM1

tradeable 127's

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lxresQVr/

the risk is defined by the inverted ratio


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> tradeable 127's
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/lxresQVr/
> 
> the risk is defined by the inverted ratio




https://www.tradingview.com/x/adbSif9h/

follow-up  shows how emotive the retail trade is by adhering to ratios ....the question is what is the context ?


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.tradingview.com/x/adbSif9h/
> 
> follow-up  shows how emotive the retail trade is by adhering to ratios ....the question is what is the context ?




impulsive sell makes ideal target 1907 risk 2065
https://www.tradingview.com/x/R4uaqCWd/


----------



## Joules MM1

Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
30m
Nine weeks ago, the weekly Coppock Curve had a bullish bias for all 30 DJIA stocks. It is now down to 15.


----------



## Joules MM1

Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
1h
The II bull-bear difference is greater than 40 and the weekly S&P Coppock Curve ticked down. Red flag.


----------



## Joules MM1

SML v SPX
in the healthy bull period, when the $spx was not so narrow, the scouts ($SML) led the way for the generals
while this drift of bull signal is not a timing thing it's definitely a signal to keep in mind when looking at context, where to start, tops can be drawn out, there's an election coming in the US, the market decides who wins n who loses, given the above tweet, given the lack of funds into the local market and the lack of follow-thru locally, clearly a lot of deep pockets are shtum on placing capital, while the aussie buck went to "cheap" plenty of liquidity came in an pushed up the locals but now the buck is firming the question you have to ask is how aggressive is the buying versus selling, not very, as per the Twiggs 13 week money flow, caution means stagnancy in liquidity flows, not much on the sell side not much on the bid side until the binary is out of the way and the coming volatility spike(s) done
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dDdUgi5y/
cash printed 6126 implied cash cmc closed 6073 bulls will want to see that pop at mondays open
$dax sits in middle of a major upchannel so i wouldnt bet on that
the side channel in the $xjo implied cash has held, just, structure still leans for the bulls, just, keeping bets small at this point,

($PA) palladium is looking best bet for a downside break-out and there's a clear correlation with $xauusd there on a weekly basis for structure

here's $sml v $spx ...a decade of leadership, ... it made a  weekly divergent lower high relative to the $spx, then, post rip south,  it has dragged relative to the $spx upto this weeks long tail, while the $spx seeks new altime the $sml has printed another lower weekly low ... #observation


----------



## Joules MM1

xjo finally pierced the june 9th high, snapped the sidechannel and confirmed the upchannel here
we appear to be on track for 6600 + as a previous vpoc floor/roof .....following the money 
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fWiVTcjW/


----------



## Joules MM1

holding more time in sells that buys $xjo, since arguably making a double top (see above post) the index had printed better sell signals than buy signals, now hugging the base of the channel with 83% retail cfd's long, not a great set-up for bids, good set-up for sells, buyers have all the work to do, a lot of head fakes suggest money that matters is leaving


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo $AUD smashing uphill is going to dictate rebalancing for o/s players, extracting value via inversion

observation
the new normal, the market ($spx) way ahead of itself, thin breadth, brittle things....


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jO3TQxUG/
technical picture doesnt require a lot of comment
it should to help the pudknockers
retail cfd players are 81% bid sp200 ($xjo)

**pudknocker* (plural *pudknockers*) (aviation slang) A pretentious but unskilled pilot.


----------



## Joules MM1

i see people trying to assign "cause = effect"

when major markets, that is the markets whose total cap leads the globe, when they move on endogenous swings the markers are already in place (see above posts) but keep in mind one down day may not trigger a trend unless all the markers clearly point that a continuation the prior (up) direction was not sustainable based on standard health, so looking for triggers is a pointless exercise, otherwise you'd be trading the trigger not the pricing, vastly different techniques and lenses

clearly breadth has been screaming sell for several days, the question is: are traders taking positions based on pricing or based on permission to enter or exit (a trigger)

perma bulls dismiss sell signals, perma bears dismiss buy signals...theyre all in the pricing and the series of pricing, relative size and context of which take a far greater consideration than any trigger


----------



## Joules MM1

sellers couldnt get the job done, previous 5860 rotation level strongly favours short term bulls $xjo


----------



## Joules MM1

the deep pockets went, oh, that's nice ....and did nothing


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Joules MM1 said:


> the deep pockets went, oh, that's nice ....and did nothing
> View attachment 110785





Politicians shouldn't be talking these unemployment numbers up for self praise. To me this looks like it is going to be a serious political error because unemployment will increase over the coming months now that Job Keeper is being trimmed. You only need to jump on Seek to see that the job market has been decimated.

I would rather look at GDP and corporate revenue over the unemployment rate at the moment.


----------



## Joules MM1

in the cash for the july high 6198 sell down down to the most recent high at Aug 25th 6199 to this weeks cash implies 5716 = a ratio of 1:1
overnights cash implied hit 5716, faild to go lower, pricing suggested accumulation activity, despite major markets falling lower and their following weak bounces
usually these simple symmetries offer a risk profile, todays sessions fills the idea that the corrective move is complete and we should be in the next leg up, it's a  repetitive observation, optimism without the naivety

risk from a larger swing point for the bull perspective is now 5720


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/Mj0PntmW/


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tQbfzR3C/
		


while o/s markets go thru their gyrations to correct bull trend, locally we appear to be biased upwards
...2 most common death traits for cfd traders: too much on the table and holding overnights without
understanding the context of the hold
the point of the exercise of figuring what the structure of the index is, is two fold:
ignore the informed opinion of what  is making a phase or trend
(where we are within the larger trend - that is - what is the relative size of the move + the context of the move
whatever price ideas are that i assign i am cognizent that those ideas are as equal in future-outcomes as they are assignable
in other words, all ideas are active as soon as there is proof of repeatability, not whether one has a smarter point of view or a smarter
style/technique, rather, can we witness what is being repeated and how we frame the activity within the confines of what our technique allows)
and secondly structure allows me to stay "balanced" allowing the structure to inform me that when i am right to run with the price and when i am wrong to exit, this is a wake-up method, otherwise i am prone to "knowing" what's going on whilest being utterly clueless what _IS_ actually unfolding, at which point, i'll have too much on the table, even if  it's a small exposure, it's still too much ......


----------



## Joules MM1

today we should get a confirmation the 5762 low is a trend low, a longtail day would add to that, an impulsive bid so far after the sharp sell ...


----------



## Joules MM1

...and if someone had said "that's debatable!" ..i would have got the pun

de-bot-able 

Don n Joe


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo intra paused at 5900, sells swamped by bids, by swamping yesterdays day, attempted retest of the low, we'll have another reason for the sideline money to pile in regardless of the $aud (which itself is good reason for o/s money to keep coming)



there must be an index run by a statistician on the times when markets make lows when someone announces "theatres won't survive (x)"
the inverse of the tall building or restaurant index?
Reuters Business
@ReutersBiz
·
33m

Scorsese, Eastwood say U.S. movie theaters may not survive pandemic http://reut.rs/3cI9qeA


----------



## Joules MM1

friday, punch in the face day
cash held above 5762's (referred to as the "trend" low from a pov of continuation)
cash closed 5791's
cash implied front month swooped 5778's
cash implied front month closed 5870
bulls got decent discounts


----------



## Joules MM1

bulls got happy feet above 5780 (not yet useable as an overnight marker)
$xjo should now accelerate


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo presses on, retail cfd moved to 70% STO (30% longs) 
both price structure and retail positioning support more upside too


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> $xjo presses on, retail cfd moved to 70% STO (30% longs)
> both price structure and retail positioning support more upside too



honkers also showing reluctance to sell, daily compression favouring more upside, safety is a long way away 22330
for a decent swing long outlook honkers quietly with the bid
$hsi


----------



## Joules MM1

how intra/inter ideas support/confirm, leading to qualitative and quantitive measures to keep building both structure and the "story"
$hsi


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/MFgJZl6A/
		


#education


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> how intra/inter ideas support/confirm, leading to qualitative and quantitive measures to keep building both structure and the "story"
> $hsi
> 
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/MFgJZl6A/
> 
> 
> 
> #education




it's a pretty quiet day the type of day prop traders hate because little price width ticking over
however its a good day for untrained eyes to "see" price with less momentum, given that price structures repeat regardless their
relative sizing, however relative sizing and the context of those relative sizes mean something to all players at all times whether investing for value or trading (price alone)

the slow day allows a trader to build up and flex their decision-making speed, to define what price lengths to play thus defining self-risk



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/iUVqEVd1/


----------



## Joules MM1

by constantly measuring and asking the basic questions about cosntruct
do the lengths match
are price lengths overlapping and if so are the overlapping price lengths impulsive or choppy themselves
always redefining risk levels is not the same as decision making



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/AgC6f34i/


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> by constantly measuring and asking the basic questions about cosntruct
> do the lengths match
> are price lengths overlapping and if so are the overlapping price lengths impulsive or choppy themselves
> always redefining risk levels is not the same as decision making
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/AgC6f34i/




to finish this small series on $hsi today
there'sa  truck load of info for structure, we had an inverted extension at the open that hit and rotated on 1.272
price made a simple down up down where the "up" was itself a simple up-down-up sequence
price has so far hit a previous 1:1 ratio which bodes well as a trend continuation signal
nothing complicated but ...big but...that doesnt mean we have permission to do anything other than define risk

here's that 1:1 measure, precise, even though it can be 'argued' that coincidence is at play, the repetition of ratios with this construct
have a consistent-enough occurrence to suggest coincidence is a form of luck that's nice to have when the trade is banked


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/kyOQ1YwH/


----------



## Joules MM1

short-selling, selling to open (STO)
an ontological frame-work,

as an undertaker must have a clean workbench before an autopsy

here's what i learned shorting the markets from march 2003 thru 2005
"stop selling an up-trend"
plus this little ripper
"selling price that ticks up is not _*selling with the price*_ it's selling the
anticipation of an unknown and unconfirmed logic found, within and about, a price that's ticking up"

anyone can apply any (emotive) logic to price but that's not trading price that's pre-empting price
apply logic to price and trading price are incisively two separate things

book building a position is different in that we need to gather evidence from an existing event(s) that qualifies
that we go further into that venture, in other words, we expand our position on a proof, that proof being, as an example,
a series of lower lows that are framed in tiers

proof is workable in that it provides levels of risk that are already measured, whereas, anticipation of proof is
not workable on that basis as there is nothing but emotive logic regardless of how much we
invoke the words "..but what about..?"

we can say that proof is provided by print
even tho we may have recently seen print that ended price in that prior direction, when we have no proof that that
price was the final print in that direction, it is because we have not seen the proof, even to it is now there for us to see
...this is a critical moment of reason, it has its own presence, we must be present to it.....

that last sentence is a wide-ranging set of suppositions, it supposes much about the viewer than it does about the price being viewed

if we were to ask or proposition ourselves with the questions of
what is it i need to see
what is it i have not seen
what is it i am not seeing
that is causing me to play against the price being printed
we may at that point untether ourselves from the vacuous disposition of being owned by an idea that is not ours

it is fair to say and hard to argue against that we cannot know everything at all times about price
however it is also fair to say that not knowing about price at all times is a workable proposition if we ask
what is it i am not seeing
what is it i need to see
what is it i have not seen
as those questions keep us in the present of what is printing and not what can or should be printed

if we were to ask those questions and realise that we simply do not have enough
procedural knowledge then that is a different proposition, however, we must have honesty about time versus task
and we must be honest to question if it is the procedural knowledge or if we have strayed from what we do know into
into the area of laze of being right

the market is never wrong, that does not mean the market is always workable
this is balanced by the truth of our conscious and unconscious competence to work within its design
keeping in mind that the auction is designed of itself, that being, always in the present,
it does not require us to lend it our intellect or emotions

so if we think of the auction as a place where we do not have to offer a forward-thinking logic
we can rely on the auction to always tell us the truth within the confines of what we know in the procedure of engaging with the auction

the auction places up us an onus to understand the mechanics of what makes price print as a guideline and not as an absolute
in that way by taking out the absolute-ness of an outcome we can give up second-guessing the future and participate in the present

if participating in the present is a challenge for the trader it is fair to say that the auction does not care
if second guessing the future extracts money from the trader it is fair to say the auction does not care
the trader who is on the other side of your trade ......does ......not ......care

you, the reader of this, you being right about price direction .......no one cares

even you.....even you do not care about being right about the price, you only care about looking good when you *are* right
that is the essence of trading against the trend

the for-seeing/far-seeing, anticipatory logic, emotive logic and the "what-about-isms" ....these are not of the present, rather, they are a disposition of being right
and that rightness is not connected-to, or workable-for, a longerterm profit, where that profit is soundly sought

merely giving someone a set of instructions to complete a task is not enough as price ticks over, price always ticking over does not ensure
we'll be in the present with that price to use the procedure we already have, no matter how well proven, as price is always in the present our procedure may not now be workable
what is it that i am not seeing that makes that clear to me
what is it i need to see to know my procedure is workable
what have i seen that dictates to continue or discontinue that procedure am using

the market is always right, my procedure is not always right within it
how do i know
the auction has a specific criteria, a dynamism of plays within plays that are instantly exhausted as they are instantly made available,
the further we move away, from that moment of being present, into the area of supposition, we fulfill the need to be right,
therefor it is fair to argue that being present to what price is printing and affirming the available and quantifiable  risk within that idea
shall separate us, you, me from the qualitative assumptivity, that is, the need of being right and it's historic propensity to hand us our ego in a garbage bag

i cannot, over any length of time, be right about the market and expect to extract value from the market being wrong

the market is never ever wrong, it maybe weak it may transition it may be strong, it is never wrong

being in tune with the right-ness or the correct-ness of the market is brought about by asking what is workable that suits what the price is printing

having a guess is not workable
engaging all phases of an auction is not workable when the procedure is out of step with that phase
this is fine, it is a perfect and correct response to dis-engage with price when we know this is what we see from our procedure
has nothing to do with being right

to re-engage
what do i need to see
what am i seeing
what is it i have not seen
when these questions are answered yet price is still antithetic to our procedure,
we must then go further into asking what is it about procedure that is missing
and dis-engage from the auction at that time without correcting our procedure
keeping in mind that procedures are not dynamic they are at best a linear application even tho they maybe tiered to mimic dynamism

to keep you balanced, please re-read that sentence:

that (trade) procedures are not dynamic they are at best a linear application even tho they may be tiered to mimic dynamism

if it is true that price is three things:
always dynamic
always correct
always present

we can say that we are subservient, if you will, to what price ALLOWS us to see, therefor we cannot be faulted for not knowing the future as
we barely know what is beyond the immediate present

in the instance where my presence is suppositional about price
then i am in the present of supposition not of price
sure they may happenstance occur and that momentary luck needs to be seen as luck of that moment

if youre still reading, an ontological agreement is being made
by you, for yourself !

honesty is one of those tricky things, you know, thou shalt not bullsh!t thyself thing
all good on paper, great in the pithy socmed self-enamoured keyboard legend shtick

to apply honesty and have integrity while trading one must first have the technology of a self-ontological preposition

where that technology is lacking guessing is comfortably waiting

your best friend in the world is the guesser, you are available to each other 24 hours a day

to quote a great servant of the health profession
"People love to hear good things about their bad habits" *

the best bit of good news for your guessing self is a colleague who agrees with you

keep in mind that your preposition and your ontological technology are not the same as your best-guessing mate
and in most instances you do not want them to be, where, when the result expected requires a precise value by
applying an imprecise vagary borne out of a wishy-washy dialogue

the times when you do want a colleagues opinion is when you have already had a concise
dialogue and invented an ontological technology between you

if you use the same old talk it devolves into trash talk, you get trashed, price trashes you, in
the present, while your thinking is off in the hinterland

be present to price
make procedure fit that
where procedure does not fit decouple
at best you are correct and inline with price as it prints, some of the time, run with it

this is the only saying i am aware that i have thought of to be original regarding short selling an uptrend
"when you're right you get some of the points, when youre wrong you get all the points"

from 2003-2005 i got a lot of points and had a lot of best-guess-mates who agreed with me

J C-T

* sited John A. McDougall (Dr. MD)


----------



## Joules MM1

"Breadth has been spectacular on this rally. The breadth oscillators turned to buy signals on September 28th. Now, those buy signals have expanded into overbought conditions. But overbought is a good thing when $SPX is beginning a new leg higher..." Lawrence G. McMillan 
from* the option strategist *email
a free newsletter, a practical and educational read


----------



## Joules MM1

"it can't go any higher because (x)" is not a trading a strategy

versus

it's making a series of higher highs n higher lows, in several  contexts and the relative sizes are widening, so the opposing view is likely to yield small shekles and carry  higher risk


----------



## Joules MM1

2020
mark it on your chart, lol


----------



## Priceaction

Joules MM1 said:


> 2020
> mark it on your chart, lol
> 
> View attachment 116159




QE in action


----------



## Joules MM1

january 20th when all the dumbness .....


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> bulls got happy feet above 5780 (not yet useable as an overnight marker)
> $xjo should now accelerate




...and how is the pedal hitting the metal, skip ?


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/jxnY7Eol/
		


post Biden inuag we'll prob have a few weeks then a small neck snap so the crowd break into another 
wall of worry chant


----------



## Joules MM1

buyers are waay too keen at the top of the swing
todays cmc cfd positions 
retail 92% BTO
top retail 98% BTO
upto halfway up the channel retail were regularly around 30% BTO (70% short)


i think we can hit the base of the upchannel


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/7ZVWy3jO/


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo made a mild mannered slump, retail cfd's went Buy To Open 92% "top" clients went 96% BTO

clearly the gen consensus was index shuffle (rebalancing) is over and we're buying the dip......ah, the dip that keeps on giving

context is everything yet not always reliable if the reliance is based on a narrowly focused data idea (anecdotal or statistical)

construct is as much about phases as it is about absolute (or larger) direction


----------



## Joules MM1

if youre buying a comfortable dip, maybe only temporary comfort



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/kB3109mZ/


----------



## Joules MM1

..and something different
i have a sell on this, let's see if the basic construct plays out
it's a little rinse/repeat and doesnt allow wiggle room, the levels are concise for risk


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/hSjFxXTU/


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> ..and something different
> i have a sell on this, let's see if the basic construct plays out
> it's a little rinse/repeat and doesnt allow wiggle room, the levels are concise for risk
> 
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/hSjFxXTU/





			https://www.tradingview.com/x/hnlvZhUA/
		


looking for a multiple to complete a simple down-up-down


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.tradingview.com/x/hnlvZhUA/
> 
> 
> 
> looking for a multiple to complete a simple down-up-down



to complete the above two posts
progress, likely next target, looking for context,


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/8MewSD3D/
		


cfd plays (open)


----------



## Joules MM1

top traders on cmc were running at 92% longs this morning, now at 89% with retail not far behind

channels carry strong messages, specifically when drawn to orthodox price extremes


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/76b3DyMp/


----------



## Joules MM1

$HSI
and for the 'sake of argument'
if you stand one leg and squint you might find inter correlations, but, nah...local market has been driving it's own bull by decent %


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lb6JqYoa/


----------



## Joules MM1

less volatility than a crowded restaurant  of anti-mask Melburnians "....look, i didnt order the entrée !"

yet, top cfd players remain 90% short over the last few weeks, that's not hedging, not with the margin, that's
outright STO positions .....

as Trader Annie Lennox once said, "a sweet squeez is made of these..."

who am i to disagree


----------



## Joules MM1

we appear due for minor trend rotation well held within the channel to
7200 thru 7170








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				



this would create a floor of the 200220 roof


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> we appear due for minor trend rotation well held within the channel to
> 7200 thru 7170
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> See more on tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> this would create a floor of the 200220 roof



friday saw small churn, good sign longs being closed yet not aggressive selling, $xjo cash closed 7368, the cfd (cmc) closed heavy discount 7266 this morning and that was the low of the session too, the 7200/7170 target is well within range monday/tuesday

..this from experienced trader McMillan, _note the breadth observation_:

"stock market commentary 06/18/2021

by lawrence g. mcmillan"


The broad market ($SPX) has failed to convincingly break out to a new high, and now it is back below the old (early May) highs of 4238. A close below 4190 would indicate to me that the attempted upside breakout had failed.

Despite recent market weakness over the past four days, the equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. The standard ratio (Figure 2) flattened out yesterday, but the weighted ratio continues to drop. These ratios will remain on buy signals as long as they are declining.

One area that has deteriorated badly and is now generating sell signals is market breadth. The breadth oscillators did their best to hold up, but as $SPX made those new all-time highs from June 10th to the 15th, breadth was struggling to keep pace, and then in the last four days, breadth has given way to oscillator sell signals.

So far, volatility has not increased much, and thus the $VIX chart remains bullish for stocks. That would change if $VIX returns to "spiking mode," but it hasn't done so yet.

In summary, we are willing to give the bullish case the benefit of the doubt as long as $SPX continues to close above 4190, although we will trade confirmed signals in either direction. A close below 4190 would necessitate a less bullish stance.


----------



## Joules MM1

xjo cfd are now rebuying/closing, usually too early

we would need to see a lot more evidence to suggest something else is printing, as it goes so do we!


----------



## Joules MM1

what does window dressing look like ?
what it doesnt look like is "end of year tax selling" !!






it's the trend, stupid !


----------



## Joules MM1

window dressing complete for this round, slump for the rest of the sesh looks good


----------



## Joules MM1

when someone speaks that has the voice of authority, the inference placed into context
#impressivecontext $spx









						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

would sir like to lick this cheese grater ?


----------



## Joules MM1

but but but

yes, all those reasons are valid

except this one, the one that matters :









						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				



there is an overhead channel we are a long way til we get there, monthly basis, impulsive trend, arguably "better"
than the 2003 take-off
the channels are the annotation


----------



## Joules MM1

sellers left out in the cold, it's just beyond mid-winter and i'm squeezing.....um, freezing.....pun de pun pun


----------



## Joules MM1

you know in that movie "trader luke, you must search your feelings, use the bourse..."

yeah, you don't wanna do that


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> sellers left out in the cold, it's just beyond mid-winter and i'm squeezing.....um, freezing.....pun de pun pun
> 
> 
> View attachment 127732



that should read " 14% buy to open from 37% all clients" ( 63% are sell to open, with 86% of available cap)


----------



## Joules MM1

@finicky  committed in foresight to take on BBUS, a 1 x hedge bear (unlike the SPXU 3 x bear type)

may prove a smart move, given the small volaltity we have had on an intraday basis not seen thru large-bar basis, over the past few sessions

we should keep in mind that in a healthy and strong bull "neck-snaps" occur without notice, well, not entirely, but not easily seen

BBUS looks like the steel mare of death but those spikes on a % basis area  pretty rip

we are in the window-dressing time frame today/tomorrow, monday might be fun for bear funds, jack being a nimble bloke









						TradingView Chart
					

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					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

you know, it's sunday, let's have  a gander at what's brewing elsewhere, when that thing makes that  you go 
....strange, i've seen that face before .....

CAC40 close up https://www.tradingview.com/x/ApK1RMiS/
CAC40 big pic https://www.tradingview.com/x/V91N7hBQ/

micro pullback https://www.tradingview.com/x/CEcWBwTL/


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> CAC40 big pic https://www.tradingview.com/x/V91N7hBQ/




$cac40 targetzone inhand, onto 6800 where the inv 127.2  sits, where we are likely to have a rotation


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




still a lot of upside price length to the channel roof

cfd's all clients regularly running around 20-30% sell to open positions, assuming that's not the same meat each week

insert Larsen man giggle


----------



## Joules MM1

BEAR BBUS etc should have some green for a few days

larger channel: 
	

	







						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




this minor blue channel: likely tells the story for a few weeks https://www.tradingview.com/x/qPsF2v3E/


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				









ball at the boundary


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




$xgd


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> BEAR BBUS etc should have some green for a few days



compression and channel convergence
closer pov: https://www.tradingview.com/x/WDlZ6XUD/
context pov: https://www.tradingview.com/x/BRbFVaJ5/


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



triangles are coils so this should resolve to the upside, recently price has come back to the previous highs (range) then lifted
as price is now butted up against the larger weekly channel, observing and respecting the levels here determines likely retracement
for the next few weeks to months 7440 needs to hold today

weekly channel : https://www.tradingview.com/x/OUkZZU2n/


----------



## Joules MM1

LSF green today, let's see if theyre proving theyre promise instead of whipping around with an index
"L1 Long Short Fund Limited (LSF) provides investors access to an absolute return fund that offers a diversified portfolio of long and short positions based on a fundamental bottom-up research process. The Company's Portfolio will be constructed in accordance with the Manager's investment approach. The Company's Investment Process combines valuation with qualitative considerations to identify investment opportunities." (Commsec)








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> triangles are coils so this should resolve to the upside, recently price has come back to the previous highs (range) then lifted
> as price is now butted up against the larger weekly channel, observing and respecting the levels here determines likely retracement
> for the next few weeks to months 7440 needs to hold today
> 
> weekly channel : https://www.tradingview.com/x/OUkZZU2n/











						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




"top clients" printing 85% long with 94% of the capital buy to open
plus the  "all clients" are 75% and 85%

everyones counter intuitive ....sipping tea with a slice of lemming


----------



## Joules MM1

the best we got today was half recover of yesterday, 
sentiment remains bullish









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



had to defend some today, still with the offer


----------



## Joules MM1

the downward channel looks confirmed (see above) , at least the breakout of the upwards larger channel is confirmed
...with the offer


----------



## Joules MM1

looking for $xjo cash to sell for the rest of todays session (high 7487)
price ran into the high of my operating breakdown channel
any move in cash hours above the channel would completely rotate the structure with a new leg up
the index may need a few days/weeks to find where value is attractive








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

$BBUS $BEAR both slow to get going, monday should see a kick with them, theyre a small surrogate, worth tracking
with these instruments i find the entry and exits are best as lags, in other words, when a crowd is chasing an idea/sentiment
they likely have the most activity after a turn (or significant rotation) has already printed in the underlying instrument, so if i see
the xjo make a turns - a resumption to major bull trend - we should expect to see these laggards to have the opposite reaction on the next
kick against that resumption as the crowd thinks/feels theyre now getting more of the same, in reality theyre being trapped in a position
that is contrary to whats actually printing

4pm thru 4.10pm friday
asx cash closed (xjo) at 7403, yet in the SPA the cfd was already printing 10 points adrift, a good signal that
players were already leaning on bids
this morning
the cmc cfd close at 7329,
rarely leave positions open on xjo over weekend, when i shut my platform the construct was clean so left the lots open
the index would have to pop 60 points to take me out, scaling suits this, this is also based on the prior posts on the construct
and channeling, this week we should see some red days, all in the task of the bull phase we're going thru
i have set any targets as we do not yet have enough construct to work with, point to point are useless targets without a construct of reference to provide levels of context






went out on a limb calling for a truncation at the recent pullback high (zone) for xjo, just a question,
it still looks valid, am assigning the validation now based on the lack of impulse since and the clean sell signals printed so far
which lends itself to the idea we have several days n weeks of this chop south
the small operating channel (blue) looks validated too now
likely targets (yellow) i dont place a lot of merit in, theyre part of the ratio reaches common but i think we have  different
ballgame at hand, not a significant rotation, more an arduous series of non-events before the uptrend resumes
and the larger channel is not that far away, that itself is a probable cause for action from larger technical players

coffee !








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




as a reference point this is the $spx








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




channel

-----------------------------
decent open interest in BEAR and BBUS https://www.tradingview.com/x/bCBOwbKs/


----------



## Modest

Are we going to try catch this falling knife at 7240 Joules?


----------



## Joules MM1

@Modest  good call (as usual)
top level for covering the impulse
not the end of the run tho


----------



## Modest

You snooze you loose


----------



## Joules MM1

insurance


----------



## Modest

I can hear the cash register ringing from here mate! Haha


----------



## Modest

I've gotten out of this one at 7268. My TP was a bit ambitious at 7280 on second glance.


----------



## peter2

I got the reversal as well and also sold 7266. Looks like there's more to go in this rally. Hope it's not a dead cat rally.


----------



## Modest

I am looking at 7247ish to hold for a re-entry long. Failure here will mean more down down


----------



## peter2

If 7250 (+/- 3pts) holds, I'll buy at 7260 for the afternoon rally into the close. 

Just saw your post, same idea.


----------



## peter2

sp500 selling off again, not looking good unless asx200 can hold above today's earlier low.


----------



## Modest

Flush into 7220


----------



## peter2

Come on Aussie, hold above today's low. If it goes below, I'll have to wait for the next higher low. 
Looks like @Joules MM1 has gone to the bank.


----------



## peter2

Bought the flush, small position.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Come on Aussie, hold above today's low. If it goes below, I'll have to wait for the next higher low.
> Looks like @Joules MM1 has gone to the bank.



slalom

in case you need them,


----------



## Modest

peter2 said:


> Bought the flush, small position.
> 
> View attachment 130529




Nice work, ballsy!


----------



## peter2

Stop at BE, letting it ride.  Raised TP to the prior consolidation range. 






Joules, you should be able to sell a few of those steel gloves in the FMG thread. What a bunch of desperados.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Stop at BE, letting it ride.  Raised TP to the prior consolidation range.
> 
> View attachment 130531
> 
> 
> Joules, you should be able to sell a few of those steel gloves in the FMG thread. What a bunch of desperados.




lol
...i see you've changed your handle 


Modest said:


> Nice work, ballsy!



that's a bit rude mate ......spell Pete's second name with a capital B


----------



## peter2

Now is the time I should close the chart. The trade will either work or it won't.  (Edit stopped out at BE)
Will re-buy at 7255 provided HL is intact.

Another 4hr bar has closed in the FX markets. If you're not already short AUD, EUR GBP it's a bit late now.

Gold, there's a higher low of the 5min chart. Tempting buy at 1749 (SL 1743).


----------



## peter2

I'm long ASX200 again. Thanks for the diversion gents. 
Time for my arvo ASX scans. I'm not expecting to see many high volume UP bars today.


----------



## Modest

That was some good fun trading that together gentlemen. We should do it again someday.


----------



## peter2

Modest said:


> That was some good fun trading that together gentlemen. We should do it again someday.




Yes, it's enjoyable trading with some knowledgeable and respectful company.  There's no-one asking if they should buy or sell now or asking what's going to happen next.  We all have our own opinions on the market structures we're waiting for to trade.

My first trade was a regulation 123 Low reversal pattern, the second a fake out reversal (after the stop hunt), the third was another 123 Low pattern. One win (+18pts) with two BE.

@Joules MM1 regularly posts here and in the gold day traders thread. We should join in more often.

Edit: Sorry, overlooked the @Modest thread in the members section. That thread is for the "gun" traders on the larger time frames.


----------



## Joules MM1

$xjo o/n just printed 7123 in the front month contract (cfd) 

sell side liquidity  increasing across wide range of instruments
'cept of course $DX ($DX1)


----------



## Joules MM1

on a % basis if youre already in sell mode and youre overseas, in USD's would it be better for a fx spike in the local currency to
exit your longs (that is sell your in-the-money stocks)
pos not shown


----------



## Joules MM1

pros sell the close


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




looking for centreline channel in the above chart (cash)


----------



## Modest

Looks good. Would be nice for it to push into 7358


----------



## Joules MM1

almost had the rat trap take me ......the SPA was a sell all the way





if you could organise the spx to eat a bad curry, that would be great 
@Modest


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> if you could organise the spx to eat a bad curry, that would be great




Working on it. Just need to eat through 61,75 which should get us to 46-41s in ES


----------



## Joules MM1

did we see buys rammed thru into the cash close then disguised sells within the SPA ?

suspect we have a hunt for the end of month (window dressing) discount caper
..fine !


----------



## Modest

ES toilet break imminent


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> ES toilet break imminent



youre on a roll - punned it


----------



## Joules MM1

@wabullfrog  alluded to this earlier:








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




price could simply go mean reversion, it's a very wide sigma swing thru the downchannel
but no games are for nothing, after the flush what are we left with ?
...the upkick is impulsive
T 10Y


----------



## Modest

Looking for a push down to 7265 on ASX


----------



## Joules MM1

summation from last night for $spx, looks like we have a few indexes w deeper resets in hand to come


----------



## Joules MM1

France F40 worth watching to see where liquidity is moving in euro zone
...similar message








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Modest

I chuckled at the 'all hours colon cleanser' label. Can't find that on investopedia.com


----------



## Modest

Modest said:


> Looking for a push down to 7265 on ASX


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> View attachment 130780





trader Arnie screams :  get to tha chahppaaaaaaa


----------



## Modest

If it bleeds we can kill it!

It needs to stay below 7320 to go lower before we can cook this pig


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> If it bleeds we can kill it!
> 
> It needs to stay below 7320 to go lower before we can cook this pig



mid-session BTDippers .....it's on its way lower tho


----------



## Modest

The pesky BTDippers... most annoying type of bidders. Re-entered short after failure to hold 7320.


----------



## Joules MM1

nope, closed STO on that


Modest said:


> The pesky BTDippers... most annoying type of bidders. Re-entered short after failure to hold 7320.



honkers is with the bid but not much there, Asian money flowing thru local indexes too looking for safe haven (?)
..only concern in the larger trend is that $spx had all opportunity to sell yet printed all text book bull signals this morning
so i'd not be poppa bear on this


----------



## Joules MM1

dragged back in !!


----------



## Joules MM1

dash for cash with a rotation ?


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> dash for cash with a rotation ?



I only go by the chart / don’t speculate on causes but it was setup for a colon cleansing long before the open


----------



## Joules MM1

normal for buys at the round #


Modest said:


> I only go by the chart / don’t speculate on causes but it was setup for a colon cleansing long before the open



still travelling
and a good call


----------



## Joules MM1

shrapnel trade ...first one might have an overnight hold, nice development


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> shrapnel trade ...first one might have an overnight hold, nice development
> View attachment 130783


----------



## Joules MM1

pink floyd, sample that !
closed all at 7276
*thanks*
have xauusd trender needs attention, palladium not far beind
ref:


----------



## Modest

I’m all out too at my target of 7265. It was a great ride down- glad you bagged some coins.


----------



## Joules MM1

had to join the "farewell, Scott" touring sell, everything being hit with the ugly stick

contractions alround


----------



## Joules MM1

in terms of time, xjo is currently in the longest pullback since the Mar 20 Low
not the deepest, which would see an equal low in the 7084 area (cash)








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## thekingboss

Long slong? 7400 next target?


----------



## thekingboss

does any look at client sentiment on ig as a tool to trade?


----------



## KevinBB

thekingboss said:


> does any look at client sentiment on ig as a tool to trade?



My account, when it was active, was with CMC. They had something similar to the IG client sentiment tool.

Best thing to do is to ignore it, unless you want to be like "most" others. Quote from this ASIC document:



> ASIC reviews in 2017, 2019 and 2020 found that most retail clients lose money trading CFDs.




KH


----------



## Joules MM1

thekingboss said:


> does any look at client sentiment on ig as a tool to trade?



g'day tkb

not with ig, am using cmc
i use the sentiment as an extreme counter-intuitive tool
like any tool best applied with repeatable context
in other words does it fit the picture(?)

when price is trending we expect to see more players and more capital in the direction of the trend
...this is very rare

we should expect to see more players as a % of both positional and capital placed
these are two different things, amount of player in total divided by 2 and amount of capital placed divided by 2

 and relative to two groups: all-retail and top-clients

lets say we have a clean turn from an upleg to a downleg,
at that turn the liquidity is around 60% positions and 60% capital (in both groups, which are usually in the same ball park % wise)
- theyre Buy To Open (that means 40% of players are Sell To Open with 40% of available capital in STO positions)

after a couple of days of strong distribution, pricing south, the bargain hunters are out
all-retail is now 80% BTO with 75% of the available cap in BTO positions
we can say this is typical bargain hunting based on the prior larger direction (up)
 top-clients are less enamoured
theyre more likely to reflect why theyre in the "top-clients" list
theyre more likely to be 70% BTO with 65% available cap in BTO positions

both groups are on the wrong side, the trend south has only just begun, theyre buying the ever-giving discount

what %, of both groups, are with the price that's printing?

in this instance, the % of players who are with the price that's printing:
20% of all-retail are in STO positions with 25% of the available cap in STO positions
top-clients have a total number, as a % of players, at 30% in STO postions with 35% available cap in STO position

those players are on the right side of the trade

it's not important that its the same players (we dont know whom they are...)
what is important is the constant driving % on either side of the trade

this is an art and a (not exact) science, rather this is an inferrence of bias (by them) observable (by you)
and needs to be constantly given context of when-n-where and by-how-much for how long

all you can do is infer what the other players are doing and what "should" happen next (in the confines of the time bars)

 the sentiment for extremes might just stop you from being purposefully dimwitted if nothing else

the extent of which sentiment in a cfd platform is useful can not be clearly defined as there are not 
enough parametres for definitive colour by numbers employ

however, if you take the time to watch the wash and notate where n when and in context of trending or coiling or distribution/accumulation zones, then, with time frame as the main consideration, you may find them useful, in the least,
to hint that if everyones one side of the boat when price is printing the opposite way and youre with that group, 
you might consider who's on the other side of your trade 

there's a lot more to this, sure....... if it merely aids you in not having dimwittery, when employed correctly, 
it's a useful tool
...to stop you from becoming a biased useful tool yourself


----------



## Joules MM1

$spx confirms its downchannel

we have a lot of points to go

$xjo overnights printing 7220 (cash close 7332)


----------



## Modest

Eyeballing 7060ish contingent on 7185ish holding as R


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Eyeballing 7060ish contingent on 7185ish holding as R



limp lift at the mo, even if we tap 85 we have more downside to come, all retail is in knee deep
xauusd rolling over, continuous contractions across the board, expansion of sell-side liquidity


----------



## Modest

It's show time!


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> It's show time!



SPA done ...let the shopping trolley from hell roll down the driveway (gravel)


----------



## Modest




----------



## Joules MM1

where you at man ?
even with stuck wheels on the shopping trolley, they were at this:


----------



## Modest

When the trolley got stuck in the mud at 7140 I switched over to ES. No position in ASX at the moment. Probably will pop then tumble down some more stairs


----------



## Joules MM1

"...one of these groups... not like the other" 
....sesame positioning


----------



## Joules MM1

heads up

xjo (cash closed v spx pre-open)


----------



## Joules MM1

kiwi whackamole
sentiment caught on wrong side, again


----------



## peter2

Wasn't expecting a down day, then after my disappointment, didn't anticipate the "V" reversal. 






	

		
			
		

		
	
 Going to play tennis instead of watching the market. EOW


----------



## Joules MM1

we have not reached the simple trend equality pullback level 7087 cash, altho we are now in the longest pullback time-wise
 since the major trend low
the question that needs to be asked is : did last weeks - and the week before - show prices bought up or marked up for distribution?

i have widened the channel to 2x the original break out, the centreline is the magnet, price moving back below that centreline, while not
being structural tool, suggests we have a longer time frame of discounts to come

if we crack thru 7346 we'll also crack the roof of the downchannel,









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

nice rotation $xjo cash hours, unlikely the 7346 target reachable now with $spx futes on the sell


----------



## Joules MM1

SPX worked very hard to lift this morning only to be swamped very slowly
that market looks like it needs to chop lower for a few days more also having exited a working channel
the small caps SP600 (SVK) also stalled out but it has not lagged on a weekly basis so bulls look healthy there

xjo failed to make basic upside yesterday yet has not peeled away today, we appear as attempting to complete a high,
traders are going to get chopped in a tight trade, sentiment is 70% bulls most days/hours

not being in a trade, when unsure of price strength, is the best insurance you literally dont have to pay for,
otherwise tight chop makes for experience and spycho babble

xjo has a history of taking in the direction of price strength when not enough bids come in to support the distribution
pros have no problems dumping, when price is chopping like this it is clear there is enough capital inflows to just support 
distribution, we may still reach the 7346 unless we get an impulsive sell thru 7210's this week
we need to break out of this zone to get any decent lengths, snapping the roof of this channel will support at least a lift to a new altime









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## peter2

Argh, that chart. Move the lower line up to match the price lows. I think you'll see that the midpoint has been hit plenty of times validating your channel. Don't leave that line hanging there.


----------



## Joules MM1

as they say if it walks n quacks like a duck should you probably havent cooked it long enough
xjo (slow) sell signals this morning


----------



## Joules MM1

new rule ...when having first AZ vax jab, no trades following day !!
messed that up...the sell is there, finally


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




price poked thru the channel roof immediately came back inside, pros are selling todays close
still prefer the sell side until the operating channel is done n dusted


----------



## Joules MM1

SPA taking a beating


----------



## KevinBB

Yes, it was a funny last two hours or so, with the index down about 0.5% in that time, for no obvious reason. US futures were stable, in fact up a little, but the selling of ASX stocks continued, even into the PM match. We don't have monthly option expiry, do we?

It will be interesting to see how things go tomorrow.

KH


----------



## Joules MM1

KevinBB said:


> Yes, it was a funny last two hours or so, with the index down about 0.5% in that time, for no obvious reason. US futures were stable, in fact up a little, but the selling of ASX stocks continued, even into the PM match. We don't have monthly option expiry, do we?
> 
> It will be interesting to see how things go tomorrow.
> 
> KH



next hursday @KevinBB  ?









						Expiry calendar
					

Expiry dates for options, LEPOs and futures contracts.




					www2.asx.com.au
				



file:///C:/Users/Owner/AppData/Local/Temp/options-expiry-calendar-2021.pdf


----------



## Modest

Are we going to take a stab and catch this falling knife Jules? 

AUS200 Cash Daily Chart: 






*7258 *


----------



## Joules MM1

posted yesterday:


			https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCwHukwVEAERnML?format=png&name=small
		


Julian

@TraderJazzHands
·
Oct 27

$xjo hitting the red button


and today









						TradingView Chart
					






					t.co


----------



## Joules MM1

$spx cash hours only
inverted 161.8 featuring  doji's du jour (top name for a jazz trio)








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

so long as the $xjo maintains the major (blue) upchannel the bulls keep the pen








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

..not random, mishta bawnd

xjo rolling over, nice day of distribution today, maybe a while before we're back up here, once the bucket gets kicked over


----------



## Joules MM1

held at the previously annotated 261.8%, slightly peaked that this morning


----------



## Joules MM1

the major upchannel remains intact,









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

$spx observation #advance-decline


----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## Joules MM1

nobody at home 7353's the operating upchannel floor about to be tested
breaking the floor (and the break being confirmed on a backtest) would support the 261.8% resistance did complete a 
simple running flat bounce, meaning we have completed 1down and 2 up(against the new trend: down)

as per this chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/a71li4Vu/


----------



## Joules MM1

channel base (re)tested
pros bought the close


----------



## Joules MM1

10.37pm aest, cfd xjo sentiment, 75% all clients have 84% of avail capital in BTO positions, "top clients" are 81% BTO with 84% of total capital on the long side, that's 19% of players have 14% of the capital on the sell side ...... ok, then, fish dont think they live in water...


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




$spx on the sell ...so am i



Julian
@TraderJazzHands
·
Nov 17

10.37pm aest, cfd xjo sentiment, 75% all clients have 84% of avail capital in BTO positions, "top clients" are 81% BTO with 84% of total capital on the long side, that's 19% of players have 14% of the capital on the sell side ...... ok, then, fish dont think they live in water...

xjo https://www.tradingview.com/x/Dciz6fRI/






Julian

@TraderJazzHands
·
9h

4pm cash closed 7385's, 4.11pm SPA closed 7379's, cfd immediately sold, sentiment 'all clients' 81% capital in buy to open, tops clients capital 82% capital in BTO, no fear into the close(!) all hands on one side of the boat(?), cfd (made) market closed 4.30 at 7370


----------



## Joules MM1

observation, change to nyad labelling


----------



## Joules MM1

xjo overnights printing 7350's 10.37aest
to quote the venerable Lawrence of Atradia "no buying, take no buying"


----------



## Modest

Its time for a market crash


----------



## Joules MM1

b!tchslap at least


----------



## Modest




----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## Modest




----------



## Joules MM1

> email  ...Founder Lawrence G. McMillan has over 35 years of experience trading options and is also well known for his....






> Lawrence McMillan
> Suddenly, there is once again a wide discrepancy in performance between two of the major indices -- $SPX and $NDX -- and the rest of the stock market. This is reflected by sell signals and negative readings in breadth and put-call ratios. However, the $SPX chart and the indicators involving $VIX and implied volatility remain bullish.
> 
> In any case, the $SPX chart is bullish as $SPX closed at another new all-time high on November 18th. There is support at last week's lows, at 4630. Below there, support exists at the old highs, 4525 4550.
> In any case, the $SPX chart is bullish as $SPX closed at another new all-time high on November 18th. There is support at last week's lows, at 4630. Below there, support exists at the old highs, 4525 4550.
> 
> Equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over to sell signals, as the internal deterioration in the market this week involved a sharp increase in put buying. To the naked eye, the little "curls" on the lower right of the charts in Figures 2 and 3 might just be a wiggle. But the computer analysis programs are quite certain that this is a change of trend and thus a sell signal.
> 
> Breadth has been the really negative indicator this week. The last four days have had negative breadth, and that the last two days have been abysmal. This is occurring while $SPX made a new closing high on November 18th. Needless to say, the breadth oscillators are on sell signals, and they are plunging.
> 
> In contrast to some of the negative indicators above, implied volatility indicators are mostly positive for stocks. The trend of $VIX remains lower, for example.
> 
> In summary, we are holding a "core" bullish position because of the strong $SPX chart. However, we will trade confirmed signals around that -- both buy and sell signals.



Stock Market Commentary 11/19/2021 [US time]​​


----------



## BigFaceBollinger

This coming week I have a break from work and would like to trade the XJO and various forex pairs using CFDs. My aim is to (by the end of next week) not look like an absolute fool. 

I am inexperienced. Wish me luck please.


----------



## Joules MM1

BigFaceBollinger said:


> This coming week I have a break from work and would like to trade the XJO and various forex pairs using CFDs. My aim is to (by the end of next week) not look like an absolute fool.
> 
> I am inexperienced. Wish me luck please.




hey, BFB

as youre inexperienced and cfd's are a made market (not direct to market, theyre synthetic) please tell us what made you decide cfd's are a better route for you to travel

in other words please define what the word "trade" means in terms of transactions thru a synthetic platform, 
that has no volume feed and no direct access to exchange data, thus, no effective indicia component, 
keeping in mind that all-hours charts distort the outlook of cash-hours charts

interested to read your thoughts

about your post:
keep in mind what you look like is irrelevant (i say) to the longterm business youre running, would it be better to 
aim for a successful failure rather than a appearance of smarts(?) .....a successful failure is where trade(s) fail yet 
you can concisely nail what it was that caused the draw-down AND - more  importantly  - you can define what made 
a win rather than just accepting you made a win, so it can be repeated, so that the draw-down can be understood 
and added to your knowledge on what _not to do_

everyone starts inexperienced, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth*", it's not the punch you 
throw its the defence you have that determines sustainability, do you have the right capital size, do you understand the margin steps,
how much youre likely to lose when you do lose based on youre strategy versus the margin requirements, do you know the media affects on releases, the non-affects of media releases in trends, how news impels price, how binary events trap players, do you have a plan to stay out of news releases, do you know when liquidity is highest or lowest in a session, do you know what a puke trade looks like, an exhaustion trade looks like, do you know the difference between a congestion trade or an impulsive trade, do you know how to define a range trade, how to trade a break-out, know how to recognise a fake-out of the range or (charting) line break, do you understand the difference between cfd price bar and a cash price bar, do you understand how some (cash) opens trade, versus, how some (cash) closes trade, what instrument is best for you, do you understand intermarket pressures, when theyre likely to matter or irrelevant, in which phases would likely-ness matter, do you know how to judge where other players consider value, price bids get rejected, where the offer is rejected....

anyways, the point is, inexperience is fine of itself,  way below the radar versus dimiwittery, alternatively, if you simply have  a bag full of cash, just bored, then sure, give it a go and donate to the person on the other side of your "trade"

otherwise nobody here is going to laugh, we are far more keen to communicate and help where possible, cfd's are merely a transport for wealth to you or away from you, given that that is true, look around ASF to spot other traders and how they practise their craft

frankly, trading cfd's is fraught with danger - first clearly *define a trade edge* over the instrument(s) you want to transact with - have that then jump in and while you can develop as you go, you still need to define a strategy for safe learning

someone i commend to you is @asennawealth twitter - he can take you thru trade edge for cfd's




*thanks, Mike Tyson


----------



## BigFaceBollinger

Thanks Joules, just briefly the choice to use CFDs is because they are bought and sold in a somewhat similar fashion to futures albeit a poor mans version. If, over some time I can prove to myself that my methods work then a move to futures could be done without needing major changes to my methods. Drastically moving up in size to full futures contracts, that would be another matter to be discussed at a different time. 

The real stuff like position sizing, risk management, entries/exits, personal psychology and general methodologies, I do have structured plans plus my risk will be small. I won't be studying any educators through the week as it will be all business.

Point taken about the punches to the face! I'll remember that when things inevitably get tough. 

cheers, 
BFB


----------



## Joules MM1

@Modest 
as $spx the form and function of herding, applying an 88EMA  what does the current signal infer ?








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




#observation


----------



## Modest

No idea what that is mate- sorry I only dabble in Japanese candle sticks, just a one trick pony here


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> nobody at home 7353's the operating upchannel floor about to be tested
> breaking the floor (and the break being confirmed on a backtest) would support the 261.8% resistance did complete a
> simple running flat bounce, meaning we have completed 1down and 2 up(against the new trend: down)
> 
> as per this chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/a71li4Vu/




nothing has essentially changed from that post last wednesday, except the bulls 
(thru the cfd lens at least) have increased their belief of higher highs to come, "all clients" have 82% of capital on the buy side (BTO) 
= only 18% of total available capital thru cmc is in open sells (STO)

2020 June 9th saw price sideways for 55 days before a higher high printed in the cash
2021 Aug 13th we are now 71 days cash hours without a higher high, 
we are just below 50%   of the current low to high range in the cash for the full 72 days

we are almost outside the channel

bulls are 82% long

if we climb back inside the channel and print a high above todays over the next two sessions
then i know the 82% happy footed/fetted money is correct and i am incorrect









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

we are selling, daily bars just hanging onto the channel
cellar door opens with a close below 7370








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

switch off from the media (whatever the news-du-jour), nothing to do with exogenous inputs, theyre part of the trend not the other way around


----------



## Joules MM1

we have a new operating channel now the prior leg up has incisively snapped








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## BigFaceBollinger

Quite a struggle this week. Internet connection problems, a missed day due to health issues, spent about 80% of the week one step behind the prices. I got long on the most bearish day of the month. Managed the position perfectly and got out without any real pain. My methods are valid although I need to be more active. Psychology needs work.


----------



## Roller_1

BigFaceBollinger said:


> Psychology needs work.




Ahh yes +1 over here


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## Joules MM1

3% pull is normal in a healthy bull

$BEAR $BBUS reflect insurance taken for players who missed writing/taking put options (or the slow burn top burned them out)









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welcome to Scomo's byebye water slide


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## Modest

We were about five days too early with our market crashing bear memes Jules


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## BigFaceBollinger

I'm assuming the major move on Friday is (short-term) a touch overdone. The overnight session closed 100 points below the day session close. It's highly likely the open either gaps up 50 or so points and/or very quickly moves up. After that we need to see how the rest of the week plays out.


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## BigFaceBollinger

BigFaceBollinger said:


> I'm assuming the major move on Friday is (short-term) a touch overdone. The overnight session closed 100 points below the day session close. It's highly likely the open either gaps up 50 or so points and/or very quickly moves up. After that we need to see how the rest of the week plays out.



Today was good.


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






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take a gander at the above chart for $spx, then consider the up:down volume for both Aug 2019 v Nov 2021


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## Joules MM1

or looking at this in a wider view for a relative exercise
4 month prior the divergences were signalling well into the recent high in both buy and sellside volume
...both sides of liquidity diverge against the print, as s healthy, but, into the recent high the buyside disappeared,
it simply lost momentum, the endogenous fear was already firmly established, price must follow the health of market psychology
keep in mind that "oversold" does not [immediately] mean [buy] bargains


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## Joules MM1

forced to take some insurance BTO's $xjo at the open, close the lower sells

gorilla having a bouncy nap ?


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## Joules MM1

..and we're back on the sell


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## Joules MM1

so if we just went thru a fake sell for the (up)trend to take a breather (let's say hourly basis)
 and just get  to a value zone for buyers to re-enter..
should pros be buying the close or selling the close today?


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## KevinBB

There isn't a lot of confidence in the AU market at the moment. I don't like to see these late afternoon sell-downs.
KH


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## Joules MM1

KevinBB said:


> There isn't a lot of confidence in the AU market at the moment. I don't like to see these late afternoon sell-downs.
> KH




reply to my earlier question: 
cash enters SPA at 7290's immediately front month goes aggressive distribution, SPA closes 7256 - asked and answered

yes, Kevin ..for long-only holders the current reset is likely a several weeks to go before we get  a resumption of the major uptrend


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## Joules MM1




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## Joules MM1

the mini rips in $xjo today are not fakes but theyre hooks, 
levels are levels, take them with a plan and size correctly, 
if youre trying to pick a low, when price jabs up, you'll get run over, 
diff market  now,
#thoushaltnotkidthyself


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## Modest

7025... Hurry up and get on with it  ASX


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## Joules MM1

$xjo 7200 Feb 2020 roof already tested, not gunna be the floor this time around

7025 ?...you short term swing trader you .....could we have thick vpoc zone 6700 ish, please


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## Joules MM1

and we are back with the offer


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## Joules MM1

ha, weekend studies
if the $spx is the gorilla might pay to check on its health
this is the $spx versus the $sml
the S&P600 small caps is the reflex health, when it drifts away the speccie end has decided it doesnt like price discovery
the major indexes meanwhile keep trudging higher and the key about that is mostly in the idea that
the breadth failing in the major indexes while the daily bars for the small indexes has clearly begun a series of lower lows
while the majors are still making a series of higher highs  (regardless of the construction being in impulse mode (still) or distribution climb)
with the key component being the ETF which displays money managers and late retail investment money flowing with enthusiasm

 from a larger, let's say weekly point of view, we need a commensurate retracement of the whole upleg from 
March 2020, in percentage terms that would make 4100 a strong level, the probablities look good for genuine fear at 3850 at level
which would be a decent level to consider re-engaging into a stock basket 

i am selling index tops and several commods, buy-side liquidity is clearly struggling









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## Joules MM1

one more bit


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## Joules MM1

retail cfd's 81% buy to open

am holding sell to open

price needs to support that we are in a buy area, sentiment supports we are standing on a trap door
the longer we spend in this area the higher probabilities we are going to make new highs with distribution
as clearly we are distributing today, US equities on heavy sell volume and crude making a nice channel

we are sitting on the 2020 altime high, theres decent battle going on to establish that as the base with vpoc
clusters june/july this year, clearly if we impulse thru there the trap door swings

as i'm not qualified to give advice, the above is a trade perspective, so "trap door swings" implies get insurance!


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## Joules MM1

extremely rare (in the actual meaning of "extremely")


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## KevinBB

Has someone had a fat finger moment? Or, maybe a vision as to what tomorrow may bring?

The former, I suspect, but hoping for the latter.

KH


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## Joules MM1

KevinBB said:


> Has someone had a fat finger moment? Or, maybe a vision as to what tomorrow may bring?
> 
> The former, I suspect, but hoping for the latter.
> 
> KH



clueless about that, Kevin
..unless someone was getting ahead of this
US futes overnight bouyant


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## Modest




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## Joules MM1

US volume lacks conviction, selling xjo 7290's even tho was looking for 7318's ...may still get there


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## Joules MM1

most of today with the bid  rotation at 7327 as per abc would be nice








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## Joules MM1

pros reprise their gig from yesterday


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## Joules MM1

and again
this time the futes did not rip, cash hit and rotated at 88.6% low to high in the cash 
as per: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7P7lODam/





beyond 88.6 price (exceeding 7444) has an extremely low probability of rotation south


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## Joules MM1

with the offer still


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## Joules MM1

claytons short
$BEAR #insurance for long-only equities
got some for those ......sleepless nights








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## Joules MM1

FTR
Aug 13th Friday, $xjo 7632's altime high rotation, on the monday insurance was taken


26/08/2021    8.980    9.000    8.950    9.000    0.050     0.56     103,084
25/08/2021    8.950    8.970    8.930    8.950    -0.010     -0.11     15,696
24/08/2021    8.980    8.980    8.960    8.960    -0.060     -0.67     515,785
23/08/2021    9.020    9.020    9.000    9.020    -0.010     -0.11     14,862
20/08/2021    9.010    9.050    9.000    9.030    0.000     0.00     33,302
19/08/2021    9.060    9.060    9.020    9.030    0.040     0.44     127,549
18/08/2021    9.030    9.030    8.950    8.990    0.040     0.45     59,464
*17/08/2021    8.880    8.990    8.880    8.950    0.050     0.56     246,826
16/08/2021    8.860    8.900    8.860    8.900    0.050     0.56     293,268
13/08/2021    8.900    8.900    8.850    8.850    -0.080     -0.90     19,428*
12/08/2021    8.890    8.930    8.890    8.930    0.010     0.11     21,699
11/08/2021    8.920    8.940    8.900    8.920    -0.040     -0.45     25,707


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## Joules MM1

options expiration thursday 16th 
#asx


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## Gunnerguy

Yes expiration tomorrow.
I’ll be the ‘proud’ owner of another 300 shares of CBA 😔😔
STO 102C x3 on 5 Nov when sp was 109.
I didn’t think they would drop 6.4% through the trading announcement.
Now I’ll just sell covered calls monthly till they get called away.
Gunnerguy


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## Joules MM1

some piccies
this first one is from Walter Deemer (breadth)  the best ruh-roh chart i've seen for a while:



			https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p08020558483&a=948891251&r=229
		


second the closing action, again, completes todays distribution :






and we have a daily sell bar print into the weekend:









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as we are into chrissy break, pros distributed today, they've mostly gone to do their thing,
 we should see more down side next few days probably into late jan, to correct the big upleg todate,
..just a retracement not a bear cycle, but value being a lot lower based on breadth the pull has some levels to go


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## Joules MM1

" @hmeisler's favorite breadth indicator"


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## Joules MM1

solid drag on $xjo overnight front month
cash closed  7304 (inc SPA) cfd closed this morning 7279

(the volume profile has a daily reset hence the m/a)
7day m/a of  up volume v down volume


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## Joules MM1

.


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