# U.S. to crash?



## young-gun (30 January 2012)

So over the past few years interest rates have been slashed to zero, hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars have been pumped into the US economy, debt ceiling has been raised a couple of times, and the list of measures taken to prevent total economic collapse goes on and on.

Interest rates are now to be set at their emergency lows for the next 18 months AT LEAST. Despite all their tampering and meddling the US is fighting a losing battle, and their collapse is inevitable IMO. I've read that stimulus runs at about an 8-10 month lag approx. and this would be evident in past instances when the fed has intervened. 

Need i not remind everyone that all these fancy tactics are used to create GROWTH, and encourage people to SPEND, and even get investors to throw their money into stocks to lift(or hold steady) a falling(or crashing) market. It would appear that their attempts have simply kept their head above water, as opposed to what it is meant to(or usually) achieves. It doesnt normally take this long to bounce back from down-turns once certain actions are taken.

So is the US going to implode around early to mid 2012? They can't keep up their efforts forever, and if anything remotely negative was to occur all of the sudden, they have absolutely no where to go, they have played all their cards. So I just wanted to get others views on the US and where you might believe they are heading.

Will the bear finally take hold? or will they continue to teeter on the edge for the next few years, waiting for a miracle and somehow pull themselves out of this mess?
I'm hoping for some good arguments for the latter, if there is any.


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## Eager (30 January 2012)

I don't think you will find any! The only arguments, good or otherwise, will consist of peoples opinions, sometimes backed up by *cough* research! Think crystal balls...

My opinion is that the U.S will recover. Given the element of time, sooner or later people will forget that there is or was a problem at all, and life will go on. It is still a huge economy over there and is just going through a bit of a shakeout. Unemployment is only 8.5%, not ideal, but hardly catastrophic. The more people return to work, the more tax the gov't collects and the less it pays out on welfare. And, money will continue to be printed until there is enough of it. Probably!!!!

Betcha can't categorically prove me wrong!


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## wayneL (30 January 2012)

The US will wake up to the fact that its success in the past has been from capitalism, puts its nose to the grindstone and invent their way out of trouble.

If there is any country that can do this, it is the US.

Failing that, it could always start another war.


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## sptrawler (30 January 2012)

I agree with both Eager and young gun, after all it's only money, it not as though it's a finite resource.


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## tech/a (31 January 2012)

There are arguments both for and avaunt littering the net.
If your board just google.

I'm with Wayne
The yanks won't just flush themselves down the economic toilet.
The size of it's economy is staggering even when talking trillions in debt.


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## Lantern (31 January 2012)

Infinite growth on a finite planet

Yeh that will work won't it?


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## Knobby22 (31 January 2012)

I agree with Wayne and Tech, The USA will get their act together and get back on top.
They have been mucking it up lately but if the country can act together it will soon recover. Its on the way up at present in my view, just slowly.

One of the laws designed to fatten the top 1% wallets is to get a tax break for offshoring production. A direct negative to creation of jobs within the USA.  Someone has to clean up these laws!  The big problem the USA has is its socialism for the wealthy. They can look after themselves!


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## explod (31 January 2012)

> The fiscal condition of the US is so abysmal that rising longer term interest rates will send the deficit soaring even higher due to the escalation of servicing its gargantuan debt load. While this government-sanctioned mugging of savers and retirees continues, the US gets to borrow its trillions at extremely low rates, rates which otherwise would force a much larger chunk of its revenue to go towards paying higher borrowing costs.




From http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/  31/01/12



> Here we can see that the majority of these conditions in the Financial Collapse have already taken place.  The only reason why the U.S. banking system is still functioning today is due to the ability of banks to mark to model their assets giving the impression that they are still solvent.  Furthermore, the increased guarantee of FDIC deposit accounts to $250,000 as well as a temporary unlimited coverage for noninterest-bearing transaction accounts until Dec 31, 2012 have kept a major bank run on the banking system.  These changes of policy have postponed the United States from entering into STAGE 2 or the Commercial Collapse.




from http://www.silverseek.com/article/coming-paradigm-shift-silver 

For those who are not aware I shudder


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## Glen48 (31 January 2012)

Food stamps usage are up 270% in some states, Shops now open late at night because the money goes in at 4 Am so shoppers arrive early and shoppers and have the cash ready, shops want to stagger the days payment goes in because they can't handle the people and shopper leave trolies full of frozen stuff go to waste because they can't get served. 

The shop owners are assisting the fed's with the cost of paying out for the stamps.
Meat can now be purchased at $1 a piece.
 House prices are still going down after QE 1 to X
Is the US  to crash YES
 Big companies are now all over seas and pay less tax if they go back to USA they are taxed again.
Look at  Apple a lot of engineers  design the I what ever and send it over seas to be produced where does that help USA employment, the real unemployment figures are a lot higher.

 The Volt elect car is not selling because the batteries catch fire which tends to slow car sales.

Car sale are worked out on what leaves the factory not sale from the yards because no one is buying thanks cash for clunkers they all got in early 
Once China tanks you will get a taste of it in OZ.


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## Glen48 (31 January 2012)

FROM SHTF'
As more Americans than ever before join the ranks of the unemployed, and with insurance benefits starting to dry up for many who have exceeded the 99 week maximum, homelessness across the country is quickly becoming an issue that can no longer be glazed over by politicians.

There are over 3.5 million people officially listed as homeless in America, and with tent cities popping up all over the country as a result of foreclosures or inability to pay rent, the trend, like the rising number of food stamp participants (48.5 Million) and those living on the edge of poverty (100 million), is not abating. In fact, as the economic health of the United States further degrades, we can expect to see homelessness rise at a record pace. Most Americans are just a paycheck away from disaster, and once that income stops coming, there is no alternative except to join the millions already living on the streets.

There is, however, some light at the end of the tunnel, at least for those living in Florida, where legislators may have come up with novel solution for sheltering those without homes:

Back in 1988, Florida legislators passed a law that would allow sports stadiums to collect about $2 million per year from the government to build new shiny stadiums that would increase economic investment and improve the quality of life.

Tucked into the statutes is an obscure homeless shelter provision, which has mostly been ignored for 23 years, and could be a $300 million “Oops” for stadiums, arenas and spring training facilities across the state.

The law states that sports teams that accept taxpayer dollars to build facilities must house the homeless on off-nights, and lawmakers have brought it back from the dead in a pair of bills gaining steam this legislative session.

Senate Bill 816, which would make teams and stadium owners return millions of taxpayer dollars if they can’t prove that they’ve been operating as a haven for the homeless on non-event nights,  passed its first committee in the Senate on Monday with a unanimous vote.

There was some charged language aimed at taxpayer-supported sports franchises during the hearing:

“We have spent over $300 million supporting teams that can afford to pay a guy $7, $8, $10 million a year to throw a baseball 90 feet. I think they can pay for their own stadium,”  said Sen. Michael Bennett, R-Bradenton, who is sponsoring the bill.  “I can not believe that we’re going to cut money out of Medicaid and take it away from the homeless and take it away from the poor and impoverished, and we’re continuing to support people who are billionaires.”

Source: Miami Herald

Florida reports that there are over 60,000 people living on the streets or in shelters, not counting an additional 50,000 school-age children who also don’t have homes. While it may not work well for the owners of those stadiums, since the taxpayers are the ones who paid for them it begs to reason that they can decide how to use those facilities in the 270 or so off nights per year. Given their size, it’s reasonable to suggest that the state may be able to fully house, at least for those nights that their home teams aren’t playing, the majority of those who have nowhere to go when the sun goes down.


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## pilots (31 January 2012)

Why the U.S. was downgraded:

* U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
* Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000
* New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000
* National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
* Recent budget cuts: $ 38,500,000,000

Let's now remove 8 zeros and pretend it's a household budget:

* Annual family income: $21,700
* Money the family spent: $38,200
* New debt on the credit card: $16,500
* Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710
* Total budget cuts: $385

Got It ?????

OK now Lesson # 2:
Here's another way to look at the Debt Ceiling:

Let's say, You come home from work and find there has been a sewer
backup in your neighborhood....and your home has sewage all the way up
to your ceilings.

What do you think you should do ......

Raise the ceilings, or pump out the ****? 

I took this  from TS.


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## Glen48 (31 January 2012)

Dear Pilots,
Easy answer print some money and pay to raise the ceiling.

Regards

B S Bernanke .


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## howardbandy (31 January 2012)

The US has about 5% of the world's population and is using about 25% of its resources -- a 5:1 ratio.  As other countries develop and bid for resources, and as resources become scarce, the price of resources will rise.  And as work can be exported to lower wage employees, that sets an upper bound on US wages.  

The US is facing higher prices and lower wages until the 5:1 ratio approaches 1:1 -- an 80% drop in standard of living -- with no way to avoid it.

Thanks,
Howard


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## Tysonboss1 (31 January 2012)

wayneL said:


> The US will wake up to the fact that its success in the past has been from capitalism, puts its nose to the grindstone and invent their way out of trouble.
> 
> If there is any country that can do this, it is the US.
> 
> :




That is the most Bullish comment I have seen from you wayne for a very long time,

I'm Impressed 

10 points to you.


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## Tysonboss1 (31 January 2012)

howardbandy said:


> The US has about 5% of the world's population and is using about 25% of its resources -- a 5:1 ratio.  As other countries develop and bid for resources, and as resources become scarce, the price of resources will rise.




People were worried about the price of lighting a home as Whale oil became scarce, But then Kerosine was invented which was 10 times cheaper and far more abundent, Then a few years later the electric lamp was invented which was 10times cheaper again.

Never discount human's ability to adapt and over come. This society will be producing more goods and services per capita in the future than we ever thought possible.


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## Boggo (31 January 2012)

The reality !


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## golfmos123 (31 January 2012)

Boggo said:


> The reality !




Love the pic Boggo!  Nothing like karma.  What goes around, comes around.

Personally, I think the US might escape and not quite go down the gurgler as far as people think. I do agree with earlier comments that the US does have a remarkable capacity to innovate and invent things the world wants (and then ship manufacture offshore!).

Time will tell.............


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## Bill M (31 January 2012)

I just saw an interesting 1 hour interview hosted by Bill Moyers. Worth watching if you have the time.

---
Bill Moyers talks with former Citigroup Chairman John Reed and former Senator Byron Dorgan to explore a momentous instance: how the late-90’s merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group – and a friendly Presidential pen ”” brought down the Glass-Steagall Act, a crucial firewall between banks and investment firms which had protected consumers from financial calamity since the aftermath of the Great Depression. *In effect, says Moyers, they “put the watchdog to sleep.”*

Link to video here:http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-how-big-banks-are-rewriting-the-rules-of-our-economy/
---

With all that out in the open, still nothing has changed, unbelievable.


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## young-gun (31 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> There are arguments both for and avaunt littering the net.
> If your board just google.
> 
> I'm with Wayne
> ...




the point i am getting at is that while they are under this current false belief that their economy is recovering, a SUDDEN collapse such as lehmans is something i dont think would be possible to come back from. look at the aftermath of the gfc. you think they are ready for round 2? if it happens its going to blindside them, i just dont think they are ready for it...they simply have no where to go.

i also read(or heard) that US banks have been holding billions and billions of dollars of underwater home loans in the hope that the market would bounce back and they would in-turn decrease their losses if sold at a later date. as we have all seen the market most certainly hasnt bounced back. they have debt maturing this year, and the only way they can pay it is by selling these underwater mortgages. flooding a market with more houses that has already fallen apart is going to amplify everything. perhaps you're right, and they will try and find a way around it, but their sweep under the rug technique is only going to be able to take them so much further.


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## disarray (2 February 2012)

I'll take "corporatist dystopia with oppressive police state" for $100 thanks alex


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## Glen48 (2 February 2012)

There is a couple of bucks due in the student loans disaster were money was thrown at school's etc to educate any one who could walk into class and teach them how to hold down a job that didn't exist unless they went over seas to work for some USA firm.


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## Eager (4 February 2012)

Unemployment in the US has fallen to 8.3%, the lowest in 3 years, and Wall St is off to its best start in 15 years:

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-new...-dont-muck-it-up/story-e6frfku0-1226262510683


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## Glen48 (4 February 2012)

hhttp://www.realecontv.com/page/9233.html
 Dr Doom has a different idea.


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## Eager (4 February 2012)

Glen48 said:


> Dr Doom has a different idea.



Well of course he has - that's his business!


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## Bill M (5 February 2012)

Glen48 said:


> www.realecontv.com/page/9233.html
> Dr Doom has a different idea.




Did you actually listen to that interview? He says something like, the best thing anyone can do is diversify and that buying a house in the country and some gold might be a good idea. But he also warns that the government might take away your gold sometime in the future. He said he would avoid government bonds and that holding cash was only useful for brief periods of time.


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## young-gun (5 February 2012)

Eager said:


> Unemployment in the US has fallen to 8.3%, the lowest in 3 years, and Wall St is off to its best start in 15 years:
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/breaking-new...-dont-muck-it-up/story-e6frfku0-1226262510683




yep, the stimulus is working nicely, and is just about to peak. im curious as to whether unemployment actually fell, or the US simply changed the way the calculate employment to lower the figure...


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## explod (5 February 2012)

young-gun said:


> yep, the stimulus is working nicely, and is just about to peak. im curious as to whether unemployment actually fell, or the US simply changed the way the calculate employment to lower the figure...




One of the tricks is re massaging the previous figures down.

And dontcha just love the common term now of   "...better than expected".

Anyway, will be good for some of the stocks I am in this week.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 February 2012)

The US is a free country with a good work ethic, low wages and a population not weighed down by too much lefty claptrap. 

Even Obama couldn't change the DNA of the greatest democracy on earth.

There is little chance of the US crashing, it's on the way back.

gg


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## explod (5 February 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The US is a free country with a good work ethic, low wages and a population not weighed down by too much lefty claptrap.
> 
> Even Obama couldn't change the DNA of the greatest democracy on earth.
> 
> ...




The totalitarian right wing will ensure that.  And the 90% left(ies) out can just fight over the food stamps.

One in four children in the US rely on food stamps already.   Great place.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 February 2012)

explod said:


> The totalitarian right wing will ensure that.  And the 90% left(ies) out can just fight over the food stamps.
> 
> One in four children in the US rely on food stamps already.   Great place.




Fertile single mothers, absent fathers and children who only have half brothers and sisters is a situation that always always leads to poverty.

At least they have food stamps.

It doesn't happen in the developing world.

gg


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## explod (5 February 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Fertile single mothers, absent fathers and children who only have half brothers and sisters is a situation that always always leads to poverty.
> 
> At least they have food stamps.
> 
> ...




He he, but the're the commo's


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## IFocus (5 February 2012)

Until the US clears some of its debt which in itself brings major problems its not going any where far.

Along with the current political dead lock and partisan self interested blocks it starting to look like the US will wait for the bond market to force the issue.

Then it gets really ugly.

At best I see a roller coaster ride for some time.................hope I am wrong


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## wayneL (5 February 2012)

explod said:


> The totalitarian right wing will ensure that.  And the 90% left(ies) out can just fight over the food stamps.
> 
> One in four children in the US rely on food stamps already.   Great place.




Welfare - food stamps... same thing.

How many in Oz rely on welfare, my ideologically un-objective friend?


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## Glen48 (5 February 2012)

Read some where a few million un-employed dropped  off the list because they couldn't be bothered registering.
So the figures went down.


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## explod (5 February 2012)

Glen48 said:


> Read some where a few million un-employed dropped  off the list because they couldn't be bothered registering.
> So the figures went down.




And after 12 months they are dropped off the list anyway.  Estimates of real unemployment are suggested to be about 23%


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## Smurf1976 (5 February 2012)

explod said:


> Estimates of real unemployment are suggested to be about 23%



30 or 40 years ago I think government stats were generally pretty accurate but these days I don't trust any of them.

Here in Australia I am constantly hearing about job losses and yet unemployment supposedly remains roughly unchanged. I have trouble believing that...


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## prawn_86 (5 February 2012)

Smurf1976 said:


> 30 or 40 years ago I think government stats were generally pretty accurate but these days I don't trust any of them.
> 
> Here in Australia I am constantly hearing about job losses and yet unemployment supposedly remains roughly unchanged. I have trouble believing that...




An hour (or maybe 2) of paid work a week and you are considered as employed for the official statistics...

There is a better stat, i think it is 'real hours worked' or somehting like that. The underemployemnt figures are also a better representation


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## Eager (5 February 2012)

It seems that the falling unemployment in the US that I mentioned has been met with nothing but cynicism from most of you lot.

I wonder if your attitudes would be the same if the Republicans were in over there?


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## prawn_86 (5 February 2012)

Eager said:


> I wonder if your attitudes would be the same if the Republicans were in over there?




I actually don't know what party is what. If you asked me before this post i wouldn't have been able to tell you if Obama was Republican or Democrat, and i still dont know who is left or right.

All major political parties are virtually the same, and all hamstrung by the convoluted political process. That is why nothing gets done either way


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## Glen48 (5 February 2012)

Un-employment in the 30's depression got to 25% in some states, it is there now in some and the thing is still getting under way.


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## Wysiwyg (5 February 2012)

I reckon there is a time when too many people and too much money is under the one system so financial 'control' is lost. Waste and corruption are easier to hide with the pace numbers exchange these days.


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## wayneL (5 February 2012)

Eager said:


> It seems that the falling unemployment in the US that I mentioned has been met with nothing but cynicism from most of you lot.
> 
> I wonder if your attitudes would be the same if the Republicans were in over there?




Oh brother! 

I don't recall Dubya being spared from the wrath of those here.


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## Glen48 (5 February 2012)

Most empires last about 200 years USA  has had it's turn and like the rest lost the plot, Money is like a big beach ball bouncing around the world never destroyed just landing on a new place each time now it is heading for Philippines deficit of 4% of GDP, Vietnam, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia  and these countries  are looking for an upgrade from Moody's  which Indonesia has just had.
The other place we all knew are going down so time to change your out look of whats going to happen next.


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## Smurf1976 (5 February 2012)

I can't be too specific, but something interesting regarding a recent tender at work. 3 tenders received, rough details as follows.

1. Australian company with product made in China.

2. Australian company with product made in China. 

3. USA company with product made in USA.

Tender No. 3 won on both price and technical specifications, supported by the manufacturer's solid reputation. Yes, a made in USA product was cheaper than a made in China product, and we're talking about a significant difference.

I can't be any more specific other than to say "electrical equipment".


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## Tysonboss1 (6 February 2012)

Glen48 said:


> Most empires last about 200 years USA  has had it's turn and like the rest lost the plot,.




Saying that though, the populations and economy of the empire does not disappear,

Eg, The british economy still generates vast sums of weath each year that the investor can tap into even though the british empires importance has been significantly reduced.

So The United states will become less important, But still have a large productive population with a huge economic turnover, and those investor with sound portfolio policy will contiune generating sound returns


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## Eager (6 February 2012)

wayneL said:


> Oh brother!
> 
> I don't recall Dubya being spared from the wrath of those here.



Well, since I wasn't a member here at that time, I'll have to take your word for it.


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## Knobby22 (6 February 2012)

Eager said:


> Well, since I wasn't a member here at that time, I'll have to take your word for it.




Especially from me. Dubya caused the whole thing with his removal of the anti-Great Depression laws. Combined with his running up of the debt in good times to fight a useless war among other things. 

I am sure he will go down as one of the worst Presidents, if not the worst, ever. There were many who agreed, at least partially.


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## Glen48 (6 February 2012)

Tysonboss1
 That true but look at companies  like Apple, Macca's, YUM   big business but move off shore and build up in place like China just like a worker   going over seas all earning money but doesn't do much for the home country and USA tax  problem doesn't give them much incentive to stay in USA.
And USA etc is so far in debt they need to do some thing  soon to get out but when 30,000 voters out of 2.7 M   eligible voters  vote there is a problem when the best man for the job is Ron Paul but  cant  get a look in it will never change.
Buy gold and hide


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## Julia (6 February 2012)

Knobby22 said:


> Especially from me. Dubya caused the whole thing with his removal of the anti-Great Depression laws. Combined with his running up of the debt in good times to fight a useless war among other things.
> 
> I am sure he will go down as one of the worst Presidents, if not the worst, ever. There were many who agreed, at least partially.



+1 x 100.  Just dreadful.


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## Glen48 (6 February 2012)

Don't place your bets yet we still have Newt and Mitt  ( the man who believe the world is 5k yrs old ) to show us their wares.

 None of the USA president were  any good , now they are say Roosevelt wanted USA to go to war  so upset the Jap's by cutting off the oil supply and he knew of pending  attack on Pearl Harbour so he could get USA  in to the war if that is true is shows the   depth some will go for power.


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## howmanyru (6 February 2012)

The US could recover but I think it's just too top heavy with Government and the military. There is no political will to make the drastic changes required. Don't forget that magical age of US advancement and living standard was all based on DEBT, both private and governmet. Now lets see what they can do without access to easy cheap funding. Come on Ron paul, you can save em !


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## Glen48 (7 February 2012)

http://news.newsmax.com/?KKCv.TdZxR...k?weiss_martin+RWR-DEC-VSP-49+++MNEWS+4826103

 Now China is the worlds biggest economy and super power USA  has a battle on its hands to get  back to where it once was.


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## Tysonboss1 (7 February 2012)

Glen48 said:


> Tysonboss1
> That true but look at companies  like Apple, Macca's, YUM   big business but move off shore and build up in place like China just like a worker   going over seas all earning money but doesn't do much for the home country




I disaggree,

Maccas, KFC, coca cola etc send send billions of dollars in franchise fees back to the USA shareholders,

Apple is generating millions of profit that will go back to US shareholders, Apple is also distributing Millions of dollars back to USA Content producers (Music, movies, tv shows) through Itunes,

Companies like Google, Facebook, Microsoft etc are like giant vacuum cleaners sucking up pennys from all over the world and funnelling them back to the US.

Lots of other industries in , computer Gaming, finance, mining, retail, telecomunications, brewing, food, weapons, areospace, automotive, internet etc etc find their profits rolling back to USA shareholders

The US economy is very dynamic, Just becuase they outsource alot of the low profit margin activities does not mean the lions share profit are ending up back in the USA.


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## Glen48 (7 February 2012)

Ok that explains why 46m yanks are   out  of work, food stamps needs are increasing.
 As  long  as  you are  a share holder is one of the above it' s ok  but the average man on the street is not  going to get the flow on, of course there will always be USA but the glory days are gone  were some one got a job for life in a steel mill or on the production line at GM.
 Depends on what you are looking for to invest there or just interested in their  economics.

Some of the bigger companies could move of shore if the IRS start hounding them to prop up the country.


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## Tysonboss1 (7 February 2012)

Glen48 said:


> 1, Ok that explains why 46m yanks are   out  of work, food stamps needs are increasing.
> 
> 2, As  long  as  you are  a share holder is one of the above it' s ok  but the average man on the street is not  going to get the flow on,
> 
> ...




1, The unemplyment rate is 8.3%, thats not overly bad, It's cyclical. It's a far cry from 25% during the great depression, And if your a glass half full type of guy you can look at it as over 90% emplyment.

2, offcourse there will be flow on, the shareholders and employees of those companies need to be housed, fed, cars serviced, served in shops and restruants, they need their lawns mowed, hair cut, planes and trains piloted and crewed, highways built and repaired, they need medical treatment, adive from accountants lawyers, fitness instructors, kids schooled, fire men, police  etc etc, 

3, their will always be steel mills and factories in the USA, But yes alot of the low porfit work that no one want to do will be offshored,

4, There is far more to it than that, and the american tax system is quite low rate compared to others,


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## Wysiwyg (7 February 2012)

You sum things up so nicely TB1.

Less than a quarter full glass view is the eternal pessimist. This could indicate a little more downside or the bottom is well and truly in.


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## Glen48 (7 February 2012)

The real  un-employment rate is about 25% in some states same as 1930's, rent a new car for $300 PM, buy a new lounge suite at 0% nothing to pay for 7 yrs.
$1.7 T in student loans to be repaid or join the services and get the loan killed..
Yep sounds like it well under way to recover.


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## Glen48 (7 February 2012)

oo and vehicle  manufactures have enough stock waiting to sell for the next 3 months


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## wayneL (7 February 2012)

GFC needed to happen. That's why I was a bear for so long leading up to it - now I can be a bull again.

It is arguable that ALL that needed to happen HAS yet happened. I don't know, but I think the can has been kicked down the road far enough for the US to have some good years... not like before, but good enough.

The joker in the pack remains Europe and I reserve the right to change my mind at a moments notice - I will keep my bear costume handy. 

</randommusings>


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## Tysonboss1 (7 February 2012)

Glen48 said:


> oo and vehicle  manufactures have enough stock waiting to sell for the next 3 months




better than the 18 months in 2008,

the usa automotive industry is an area i am bullish on, there is alot of pent up demand there.


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## Uncle Festivus (7 February 2012)

The US is crashing, it's only the afterglow of continuous QE that keeps it going, but you would never know it by the way 'retail' analysts measure economic recovery success by - the Dow Jones index?

Another measure - AAPL Apple - headline numbers look good but nearly all of it was from a one of to some stupid company buying 3 years worth of iPhones - hitting an air pocket soon?

Employment - those that know how the stats are calculated know that at best it's a guesstimate - there is a huge fudge factor put in as well as other fudges eg birth/death ratio etc - they probably actually lost a million jobs! The real unemplyment rate is closer to 12%, the total unemployed rate is closer to 18% - straight from the Feds mouth here - http://research.stlouisfed.org/pdl/458

This bloke knows the numbers and he's confused - 



US Railfreight is going down

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Negative real wage growth.

House prices firmly continuing down on the second dip.

Baltic Dry Index is plunging - 1 shipping line is actually paying a customers fuel costs just to use their ships!

Then the Euro zone, China & of course the Japan! 

Only those 'glass half full' types are blind to reality, but will have the biggest dissapointement when economic gravity, ie reverting to humanities mean, finally arrives?


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## moXJO (7 February 2012)

Smurf1976 said:


> I can't be too specific, but something interesting regarding a recent tender at work. 3 tenders received, rough details as follows.
> 
> 1. Australian company with product made in China.
> 
> ...



 I'm buying a lot of gear out of the US as well as it's better quality and very cheap. I worry more about Australian industry then the US crashing. US policy is more dynamic and allows quicker change in direction coupled with a cheap workforce with even more coming out of Mexico at even cheaper rates and boosting the demographic. I'd bet on Aus turning to $hit before the US.


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## Julia (7 February 2012)

moXJO said:


> I'd bet on Aus turning to $hit before the US.




Goodness:  better not tell Swannie.


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## Uncle Festivus (8 February 2012)

Americans back to their bad old ways OR need credit just to survive?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers increased their debt in  December by a seasonally adjusted $19.3 billion, the Federal Reserve  reported Tuesday. The increase is just below November's $20.4 billion  pace which was *the biggest gain in a decade*. Monthly debt rose by a 9.4%  pace in December, after a 9.9% pace in the prior month.  The increase  in consumer credit in December was much larger than expected by Wall  Street economists. All types of credit gained in the month. The  non-revolving category of debt, such as auto loans, personal loans, and  student loans, jumped $16.6 billion, or 11.8%, in December. This is *the  largest amount since November 2001*. Credit-card debt increased by $2.8  billion, or 4.1%, in the month. For the year, consumer credit rose 3.7%,  *the largest increase since 2007*.


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## drsmith (8 February 2012)

Uncle Festivus said:


> US Railfreight is going down
> 
> http://railfax.transmatch.com/



It will be interesting to see if that trend continues beyond what appears to be a normal seasonal decline.


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## Glen48 (8 February 2012)

Think the attitude of the average Yank is we are stuffed so lets  go out with a bang spend up and not repay, beside the banks are caught up in Robo signing B/cards as well as mortgage's now they are offering those under water up to 30k incentive to sell for what they can get just to get the bad loan's off their books.


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## Uncle Festivus (10 February 2012)

drsmith said:


> It will be interesting to see if that trend continues beyond what appears to be a normal seasonal decline.




Good pick up Doc . Although......

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Just when you  thought that it might be safe to get back into the stock market...                               
    The fly in the  ointment this time: The Dow Jones Transportation Average                                    is seriously lagging.                              
    This is potentially  worrisome from at least two different points of  view. First, the Dow  Theory, the oldest market timing system still in  widespread use today,  keys off the behavior of the Transports and the  Dow Jones Industrial  Aver. Joint new highs are considered evidence of a healthy bull market,  while divergences are considered a warning sign of trouble.                               

And this - 

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders are now selling  their companies’ stock at a rate not seen since late last July.                              
    That’s a scary parallel indeed, since that late-July spike in selling  came just days before one of the more painful two-week periods in the  stock market in years.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-insider1.html?mod=topnav_2_3023

*Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Distribution*

Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold.
​


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## Uncle Festivus (10 February 2012)

Sorry, there's just too many disparities with what's going on in the markets and underlying data, so one more chart to confirm that the DJIA at least has gotten way ahead of itself??


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## noirua (14 December 2020)

Glen48 said:


> Don't place your bets yet we still have Newt and Mitt  ( the man who believe the world is 5k yrs old ) to show us their wares.
> 
> None of the USA president were  any good , now they are say Roosevelt wanted USA to go to war  so upset the Jap's by cutting off the oil supply and he knew of pending  attack on Pearl Harbour so he could get USA  in to the war if that is true is shows the   depth some will go for power.


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## SirRumpole (16 February 2022)

Big fund manager reckons a US crash is just around the corner.









						'Get rid of this fear of missing out' ahead of looming share market crash, warns veteran investor
					

One of the world's most famous fund managers is warning that a "super bubble" that's been building for more than a decade may be in the process of bursting.




					www.abc.net.au


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## Garpal Gumnut (16 February 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Big fund manager reckons a US crash is just around the corner.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I saw that headline on ABC Justin.

Easy to say. Did he put his money where his mouth is by shorting the market?

gg


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## moXJO (20 February 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Big fund manager reckons a US crash is just around the corner.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I thought the same thing.... for about 4 years


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