# AVR - Anteris Technologies



## System (3 July 2011)

Allied Healthcare Group Ltd. (AHZ) was formerly known as BioMD Limited (BOD).

For previous discussion of this company, please refer to the BOD thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6997


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## Purple XS2 (4 July 2011)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



System said:


> Allied Healthcare Group Ltd. (AHZ) was formerly known as BioMD Limited (BOD).
> 
> For previous discussion of this company, please refer to the BOD thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6997




SP creeping up on low volume: too early to tell if this trend has legs. The oppies AHZOA (formerly BODOA) meanwhile are lagging, both in terms of price and volume. (expiry Dec 2011, strike $0.040, so with heads over 0.08, the oppies are well in the money) last traded at 0.037.

Whenever I see that sort of differential, I expect the heads to fall, not the oppies to rise. The market isn't known for leaving bargains hanging around.

But short-term considerations aside, this stock presents well as a long-term hold. Once they start making announcements about business progress (or lack thereof : ) we'll know more about its profit-generating capacity.


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## tdonovan (16 August 2011)

*AHZ Presents at Three Tickers Twenty Minutes*

Buchan Consulting is pleased to invite you to our next 'Three Tickers, Twenty Minutes' event on Wednesday 31st August. 

The Australian Healthcare sector continues to mature and yield exciting opportunities for investors. Meet and hear from three biotechnology companies with strong prospects for growth and opportunity in 2011/2012. The event includes special commentary from leading healthcare analysts and presentations from: 

- Cogstate (ASX.CGS)
- Circadian Technologies (ASX.CIR) and
- Allied Healthcare (ASX.AHZ)

To register to attend please email tdonovan@bcg.com.au 

Where:  Middletons, 
Rialto South Tower
Level 25, 525 Collins Street
Melbourne VIC 3000

Time: 5pm - 7pm. 
Date: Wednesday 31st August

3 x 20 minute presentations commence at 5pm. 
Drinks and appetisers served following the presentations.


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## Purple XS2 (30 October 2012)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Goodness how time flies.
Seems like only yesterday that Allied butchered their AHZOA option holders by a capital raising to (he turns to spit) "sophisticated" investors.

And the fizz has been absent ever since.

Allied however continues to promote trials of its surgical heart-patch, and continues to increase its stake in unlisted Coridon, a vaccine experimental operation.

So, having reached exhausted my angst, I'm accumulating again. While I consider the directors to be as much my enemies as my allies, I think they're on the real deal. At least, they're my stock tip for November. :


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## Purple XS2 (15 November 2012)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Another juicy announcement of good lab results for their experimental subsidiary Coridon's work on a therapeutic vaccine for cervical cancer. Spare a thought for the mice.

There's still a handbrake on the SP over concerns for working capital, and recently an anvil tied to the bumper bar with one of their major shareholders Avexa (AVX) in the process of leaping into an Alabama coal mine (hence the possibility of their liquidating some more of their stake).

So much fizz but no heat for the stock price after today's dust settled.

I'm cautiously accumulating this stock - if one is prepared to withstand the fluctuations, (or perhaps, trade the trade when opportunity arises ...  ), this is a stock to consider.


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## Purple XS2 (19 December 2012)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Allied has carried out a 10% dilution - issue, raising $1.7 mill. Also announced a share-purchase plan for holders, but I haven't seen any detail as to how many shares in total will be issued via the SPP, nor how many entitled holders can aim for.

Issue and SPP price $0.020 - not too bad, although it had the inevitable effect of pulling the market price down to 0.021 / 0.022.

So I'll be lining up for my chop when the paperwork comes in. At 0.020, the more the merrier.
Company announcement was boosting the prospects of approval and revenue for Cardiocel, Allied's surgical patch technology, for 2013.

Avexa meanwhile, have announced some sales of their holdings in Allied, and Avexa also held their AGM recently, at which their Alabama coal venture was approved _narrowly_, so sooner or later they'll be selling off some more.

My guess is later. As far as I can see, this is a good time to have and hold AHZ.


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## Purple XS2 (25 February 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

& it's a big "Hello there" to all youse Allied Healthcare Groupies, gee it's good t' see yas. :bier:

Avexa has sold their 8% stake, dispersed to a bunch of smaller fish, so no single 'substantial holder'. Sale price was 0.025.

Now, my hypothesis stands that that investing in AHZ is a hell of a lot more attractive than investing in some dusty ol' Alabama coal mine, so if Avexa sold out rather than hold, is that because they reckoned there wasn't any more growth in the foreseeable beyond 0.025?

Whatever it is Avexa thought, the market - on low volume - is prepared to take the SP to 0.026, with a bit of a sniff today at 0.027. Buyers are building, Sellers are thinning. As I see it, the market is poised to pop if the next news to emerge is good.

I disclose holdings, & tipping-comp interest, in AHZ


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## ROE (25 February 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Yeah I throw some money at it as a specs that could be multi baggers sometimes ago, enough to buy a million shares.
I like Dr Ian Frazer work at Coridon..

Let see how it go in a decade or so


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## Purple XS2 (29 March 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Pretty quiet on the Allied front - an occasional feeding of the chooks from the company, most recently as a quartlerly newsletter...
.. which preceded a little sell-off & recovery (last trade before Easter at $0.029), with the result that the buy-stack looks particularly scrawny.

I wonder if recent nervousness hasn't been partly influenced from developments in Europe - and I don't mean just Cypriot banks. Allied's next aimed-for milestone is European "CE" approval for their surgical patch technology, and another Aussie flakey biotech, Tissue Therapies (TIS) has recently come to grief by what TIS considers to be an unexpected complication from the European regulators. Or it could just have been a case of TIS being called out trying to pull a swifty, and having a little whinge about whose fault that was.

For those who allow themselves to be impressed by Allied Healthcare Group, now's probably a good time to consider a position. I suspect recent activity has thinned out the short- & medium-term profit takers from the cap-raising (at $0.020) at the start of the year.

From the newsletter, for the calendar: 
CE mark approval for Europe expected mid 2013
510(k) submission to the FDA on target to be lodged 1H, 2013


I disclose: holding buckets of AHZ. Also my serial tip-of-the-month.


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## VSntchr (29 March 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I'll put my hand up to say I've got a small holding in my speccy portfolio (which is 10% of my overall equity capital).

I agree that this is an interesting company with many potential catalysts for earnings explosions.
The team at Allied appear to be world class in their scientific field..


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## rbgmauq (5 April 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

AHZ has been showing support around 0.024 and resistance in the 0.03 price range. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is NEUTRAL in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.


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## Purple XS2 (11 May 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Breaking beyond mid 0.030's. Friday's close at intra-day high of 0.036. No news, possibly some anticipation of impending European accreditation for their surgical patch 'cardiocel':




I would take a guess that somebody is taking a position - the issue of a substantial holding notice (or absence thereof) could demonstrate that theory.

But whether this latest interest is the activity of the many or of the few, the rosy predictions this stock's boosters have indulged in (mea culpa - I only wish I'd indulged _more_) are being realised.


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## Purple XS2 (12 June 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I could post another chart, but all it shows is that upward line on the right-hand upper corner of the pic above going up...

and up ...

closed this afternoon at 0.050.

Allied anticipates European CE mark approval 'soon'. I would have assumed the market was treating that helpful milestone as a done deal (caveat - nothing is certain here, just ask TIS /Tissue Therapies).

But such has been the increase in interest recently in the absence of any actual news, that maybe there's even more on the breeze than my optimism allows for?

Unless of course it's all that money flooding out of the collapsing spekkie-miners sector that floundering about looking for the next best thing?

Interesting times.

Discl: holding buckets.
Discl: currently 2nd in the June tipping comp. Now _that's_ where the big money is.


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## VSntchr (1 July 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

This stock gets alot of ramping on the other major stock forum but not much discussion here.

Ive held it for a while now as somewhat of a more spec position...but with each announcement my confidence grows in this company and the management team.

Another good announcement today with the company showing their faith in the Professor by upping their stake in the herpes vaccine project to a now controlling level of 50.1%.

I have attempted to value this company but with the potential impacts of the future products/patents coming on-line it is very difficult. Still some guestimates can be thrown out to gauge an approximate fair value.

Its still getting pushed around quite a bit by the traders but the overall trend has been rising...
Worth a look if you are unfamiliar with the company...


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## Knobby22 (1 July 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I'll have a look.


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## Country Lad (1 July 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Purple XS2 said:


> I could post another chart, but all it shows is that upward line on the right-hand upper corner of the pic above going up...
> 
> and up ...




Telling us a bit more now.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Letts (4 July 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Put some into this today at the open, already gone up 1.8% above what I paid including brokerage. 
From what I've read, the confidence in the management team for this stock is quite high - I'm hoping to see it go up to 0.6 by the end of next week if this growth holds.


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## VSntchr (4 July 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Country Lad said:


> Telling us a bit more now.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad
> ...




Hows those charts looking after today


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## Country Lad (4 July 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> Hows those charts looking after today




More promising

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Purple XS2 (12 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Letts said:


> Put some into this today ....
> I'm hoping to see it go up to 0.6 by the end of next week if this growth holds.




Took longer than a couple of weeks, but it broke through 0.6c eventually ...




Today's close 0.62

Pretty good continuous upward drift, given that we're still waiting on a result from European ("CE mark") certification for the surgical patch, and the drug development arm for all its potential, is a long, long road ahead.

The recent 4C quarterly shows revenue - mainly from the older Allied surgical equipment arm running at healthy growth, annual $7.5 million receipts, so that may have cheered the market: at least these guys now how to manage an on-going business.

So there's a lot more to this story yet, but it's been s sensationally good for this past year, that I'm starting to ... to ...  yes I will, no, no not yet, ...must .... take profits ... :kebab:

Sigh what a dilemma ...

I disclose buckets of AHZ.


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## Feigs (21 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

.074 now  .. been watching this one a while and wondering how far it can go


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## richardgeary (22 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Feigs said:


> .074 now  .. been watching this one a while and wondering how far it can go




Been wondering the same myself. Seems to historically get stuck around the 8cent mark and then drop off. Or maybe this time it's heart patch which is estimated at an 80% success rate will give it a real boost. But at the end of the day they will really have to come up some concrete success to get it over 8 cents and if it does it will take off.


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## VSntchr (26 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

CEMark European Approval.

The AHZ story enters a new phase today. Sales process to begin later this year - with a massive upkick in revenue expected.....


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## ROE (27 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I Increase a little more  hold tight for a decade ride ....


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## VSntchr (28 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> I Increase a little more  hold tight for a decade ride ....




I had maxed out my speculative allocation on this one - but felt that the approval will see this one become investment grade very soon and as such I increased aswell. Already well ahead and its for a good cause!!!


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## ROE (28 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> I had maxed out my speculative allocation on this one - but felt that the approval will see this one become investment grade very soon and as such I increased aswell. Already well ahead and its for a good cause!!!




Becomes investment grade in 2 years when cash flow from its recent approval takes off in europe 
But you wont get it cheap by that time ...

I think earning start 3-4 years and not counting on TGA and US approval, US approval timeline is 2014

If they can pull a magic between now and 2015 with DNA vaccine from Coridon this thing will take off ...multiple revenue streams is a real kicker

I am a long backer of this company and participate in their capital raising so hopefully it will pay off in a decade -
Well it already has at current price but nothing compared when it start making profit....

And from everything I see so far I can not see why not especially now they have products they can generate revenue and more work in the pipe line...

Biotech is a very long term game, be patient and when it does pay off it will be extremely rewarding.

Touching 10c today AFR covered it today, Motley fools covered it today..More and more people will get to know Ahz soon...

I Dream of another CSL ...CSL was before my time -


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## Letts (31 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Pretty happy with this stock - one of the very few that seems to be worth the hype! I'm definitely in for the long haul - unfortunately I don't have as much to invest in this one as I'd like to!


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## mr. jeff (31 August 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Letts said:


> Pretty happy with this stock - one of the very few that seems to be worth the hype! I'm definitely in for the long haul - unfortunately I don't have as much to invest in this one as I'd like to!



I would keep an eye on the way it handles the 10c level before getting too excited, it is certainly heading straight for it!


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## herzy (3 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



mr. jeff said:


> I would keep an eye on the way it handles the 10c level before getting too excited, it is certainly heading straight for it!




didn't seem to be an issue!


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## ROE (3 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

The train is leaving the station...more good news just release 
Dont sell yourself short...the making of the next CSL is on the way


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## ROE (3 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Letts said:


> Pretty happy with this stock - one of the very few that seems to be worth the hype! I'm definitely in for the long haul - unfortunately I don't have as much to invest in this one as I'd like to!




Not only that the company has 2 important figures with proven track record ..
Andrew Forrest and Dr Ian Frazer.

Stock market show you, when you follow proven leaders they usually on the money...


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## galumay (3 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> Not only that the company has 2 important figures with proven track record ..
> Andrew Forrest and Dr Ian Frazer.
> 
> Stock market show you, when you follow proven leaders they usually on the money...




Mmmm...thats been a bit of a roller coaster with Twiggy, remember Anaconda?!

Still I am hoping the fact that he and his cohorts hold nearly 20% of AHZ is a positive for the rest of us!


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## craggles123 (3 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

What are peoples thoughts moving forward with this stock?

Still moving forward strong, be interested to see if it's supported above 10c

Hard to see a good point to jump in at the moment


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## ROE (3 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I'm holding long term decade or more,  so price move around doesn't temp me to sell in and out.
Along the way I am sure there will be plenty of up and down for the share price 

I believe it be a profitable company in next few years and be a one of the big health care company in a decade  or so...

if you want a good summarise of AHZ and many of its research ...this site has many articles covering AHZ for a long period of time
just search for AHZ

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/


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## mr. jeff (20 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



craggles123 said:


> What are peoples thoughts moving forward with this stock?
> 
> Still moving forward strong, be interested to see if it's supported above 10c
> 
> Hard to see a good point to jump in at the moment




You may see it today - watch the volume and price and see what it says - so far the retreat has been solid.
Any "true" believers should be buying bucket loads if at 10c it was still a bargain!
Looks like the 8c level will offer -some- support.

 (I know nothing about this stock just watching the chart periodically so please don't be offended with my GI)


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## craggles123 (20 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



mr. jeff said:


> You may see it today - watch the volume and price and see what it says - so far the retreat has been solid.
> Any "true" believers should be buying bucket loads if at 10c it was still a bargain!
> Looks like the 8c level will offer -some- support.
> 
> (I know nothing about this stock just watching the chart periodically so please don't be offended with my GI)




As a beginner can I just say that brief comment makes a lot of sense

Cheers


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## craggles123 (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Heavy sell off today

Potentially a good oppurtunity to top up?


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## Hodgie (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



craggles123 said:


> Heavy sell off today




Theres good reason for it with the capital raising at 5c.


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## VSntchr (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



craggles123 said:


> Heavy sell off today
> 
> Potentially a good oppurtunity to top up?




Massive dilution with this CR and at a substantial discount....
I would be waiting and trying to get it closer to 5c. I wouldn't be buying until its under 6c in the short term.


If your long term focused and dont care about a few pips, then it may be a decent point of entry...no advice and make sure you check out the CR details.


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## Country Lad (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> Massive dilution with this CR and at a substantial discount....
> I would be waiting and trying to get it closer to 5c. I wouldn't be buying until its under 6c in the short term.




I don't know about massive and I can't understand your assumption the price would get anywhere near 6 cents, let alone the issue price of 5 cents.

The closing price before the announcement was 8.5 cents so fully diluted the share price should now be 7.9 cents.  Looks like there is a slight over-reaction. 

Cheers
Country Lad


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## VSntchr (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Country Lad said:


> I don't know about massive and I can't understand your assumption the price would get anywhere near 6 cents, let alone the issue price of 5 cents.
> 
> The closing price before the announcement was 8.5 cents so fully diluted the share price should now be 7.9 cents.  Looks like there is a slight over-reaction.
> 
> ...




CR at such a substantial discount lowers confidence in my opinion.
Also, it is a 20% increase in shares on issue - I think this is massive!

It may not go to the prices I suggested - but that is when it would be a better buy in my opinion. Just a hold for the current time.


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## ROE (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> CR at such a substantial discount lowers confidence in my opinion.
> Also, it is a 20% increase in shares on issue - I think this is massive!
> 
> It may not go to the prices I suggested - but that is when it would be a better buy in my opinion. Just a hold for the current time.




A bit disappointed they go that low I thought 6.5-7c would be idea but in any case they need the cash to expand cardicel production to sell into Europe plus the FDA approval coming early next year.

So they raise money for the right reason...I am going to take up my full entitlement -


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## Country Lad (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> Also, it is a 20% increase in shares on issue - I think this is massive!




The number of shares is irrelevant, assuming the market capitalisation remains within logical bounds of the dilution after the rights issue price.  As I said earlier, the fully diluted price is 7.9 cents.  There will always be people who are in it for short term or just a trade who will have an over-reaction like you did calling for 5 or 6 cents and bail out sending the price below the theoretical diluted price.

No doubt a contributing factor today is the market being down so the price dropping to the low 7's can be expected. 

This is equivalent to about a 7% drop if there wasn't a rights issue.   Let's face it, the share price has been in downturn so  allowing for the rights issue announcement, today's drop on a down day is probably a logical continuation of the 20% or so fall over the last 3 weeks as optimism from the 3 Sept announcement wears off. 

I see nothing untoward in the way the price has reacted to the announcement and the lower market overall, but then I don't own them so can look at it a it more rationally.



ROE said:


> A bit disappointed they go that low I thought 6.5-7c would be idea but in any case they need the cash to expand cardicel production to sell into Europe plus the FDA approval coming early next year.
> 
> So they raise money for the right reason...I am going to take up my full entitlement -




Yes, I think the 40% discount is a bit over the top, but it may have been a condition of the underwriting agreement, particularly as the price has fallen 20% in the last 3 weeks.  You are correct in that the money will be used positively.  Not at all like drilling a dry hole.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## craft (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Country Lad said:


> the fully diluted price is 7.9 cents.




??? The ex date is not until the 25th.


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## VSntchr (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Country Lad said:


> The number of shares is irrelevant




What about for those cashless folks who don't take up the entitlement?


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## Country Lad (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> What about for those cashless folks who don't take up the entitlement?




I hold the view that any person trading/investing in shares should hold funds for these or other type of occurrences affecting their investments.  If they don't allow for such risks, then they probably should not be trading shares.


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## craft (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



craft said:


> ??? The ex date is not until the 25th.




sorry about the obscure post - have a bit more time now.

Repricing for the rights issue won’t occur until the ex-date being the 25th. 

The theoretical value will only be 7.9cents if the price at COB tomorrow is the same as time of announcement ie 8.5 cents. 
(8.5*5+1*5)/6

If the price at COB tomorrow is the same as today’s close of 7.3 cents then the theoretical price on the ex date will be 6.9 cents.

(7.3*5+1*5)/6


Todays drop was all just market sentiment - the theoretical repricing occurs on Ex date.


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## ROE (23 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> What about for those cashless folks who don't take up the entitlement?




You will be diluted by 20% with no benefits and Andrew Forrest end up with 50% of that allocation


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## ROE (25 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

VSntchr hope you find cash for entitlement
After Monday panic sell ... Today is panic buy for people
Fear of missing out...

Ticks all the box from
Here... Cash up 10-12m for euro cardiocel expansion
FDA approval expect 2014 and we got cash for that process
Cardiocel reach another milestone with 5 years without issues
More fuel for FDA approval and the potential of
Coridon vaccine surprise in next 2 years in a little while Ahz will owns
60% of Coridon


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## Country Lad (25 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> VSntchr hope you find cash for entitlement
> After Monday panic sell ... Today is panic buy for people
> Fear of missing out...




As happens in most cases with these smaller stocks, the price drops as soon as there is a rights issue announcement regardless of the ex date.  The price then moves around and people get in before the ex date which is what happened yesterday, up 8% (ROE's point about fear of missing out)

Smart move by the company to make today's announcement so that there is positive stuff on the ex date and the price moved up nicely.  

Cheers
Country Lad


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## galumay (25 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Agree with the analysis ROE and Country Lad. I doubled up yesterday to take advantage of the re-pricing.


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## VSntchr (25 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> VSntchr hope you find cash for entitlement
> After Monday panic sell ... Today is panic buy for people
> Fear of missing out...
> 
> ...




Ive got the cash


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## Country Lad (25 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> Ive got the cash




Good, with a bit of luck you can buy some 9 cent shares for 5 cents.


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## VSntchr (26 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Country Lad said:


> Good, with a bit of luck you can buy some 9 cent shares for 5 cents.




Looks like my thoughts of a potential drop have not followed through to reality and the stock is back into a solid upswing...

Time to sit back and enjoy


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## ROE (26 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I have a different take...after a crazy run, the market start to question its funding issues so it pause and reflect..
AHZ answer the funding issues and a brief panic start but the whole pause was about funding issues so why the panic.?.. 

After a good night sleep people said now I get it ...all cash up...ready to hit the big market and revenues will start to flow in quick and fast in not too distance future ....FDA approval in 2014 ....more good news on cardiocel 5 years mark....this business is going places....We did a boo boo  load it up again for fear of missing out -

Next 2-5 years is the most exciting years to own this baby, a few anticipated good news are expected and hopefully FDA approval start the good news season....


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## VSntchr (26 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> I have a different take...after a crazy run, the market start to question its funding issues so it pause and reflect..
> AHZ answer the funding issues and a brief panic start but the whole pause was about funding issues so why the panic.?..
> 
> After a good night sleep people said now I get it ...all cash up...ready to hit the big market and revenues will start to flow in quick and fast in not too distance future ....FDA approval in 2014 ....more good news on cardiocel 5 years mark....this business is going places....We did a boo boo  load it up again for fear of missing out -
> ...




I think your line of thinking is pretty spot on...
I also think that with a stock like AHZ - alot of traders that had no idea about the company were involved and any announcement about a CR made them dump the lot.
Ive been in since 2.6c (lucky to find it at that stage) and have bought (and unfortunately sold - need cash sometimes!!) at many prices over the last 6 or so months.
I'm getting ready to set the current parcel (plus the ones ill get next month) in my bottom draw and check back monthly from now on...its too wild to watch and the ups and downs are emotionally unsettling


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## galumay (26 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

All I say is thanks to those who paniced and/or completely misunderstood the issue. Doubled up and averaged down my overall position as a result, up over 20% today on the half i bought 2 days ago, will happily take up the rights offer and continue to hold for the future.


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## gambloring (27 September 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



galumay said:


> All I say is thanks to those who paniced and/or completely misunderstood the issue. Doubled up and averaged down my overall position as a result, up over 20% today on the half i bought 2 days ago, will happily take up the rights offer and continue to hold for the future.




Ditto  I got another sizeable parcel at 0.075 right before it went back up to around 0.09ish


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## Melthar (8 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Having never taken part in a capital raising before, I am a bit confused about the process of applying for shortfall shares.

Reading through the offer document, it's not clear how and when/where the payment for shortfall shares would occur.  Just BPay/Cheque for the lot and get a refund later?  Anyone able to provide any insight from their experiences?


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## VSntchr (8 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Melthar said:


> Having never taken part in a capital raising before, I am a bit confused about the process of applying for shortfall shares.
> 
> Reading through the offer document, it's not clear how and when/where the payment for shortfall shares would occur.  Just BPay/Cheque for the lot and get a refund later?  Anyone able to provide any insight from their experiences?




Judging by the price vs the entitlement price, I really dont think there is going to be a shortfall. In any event, the Forrest's will be taking 50% of any shortfall.

If you are feeling lucky then just work out the amount you would be prepared to purchase/can afford to (don't over commit yourself just because there is a positive gap AT THE MOMENT!)...and deposit that amount. Any excess amount will be refunded.
That is my understanding of the process...


----------



## craggles123 (10 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Hi All,

I still havent recieved any paperwork with regards to the rights issue.

Should I contact AHZ about this or are some still waiting?

Cheers

Craig


----------



## ROE (10 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



craggles123 said:


> Hi All,
> 
> I still havent recieved any paperwork with regards to the rights issue.
> 
> ...




Don't worry u got till next Friday so wait another day or two ...
You can always ring up computer shares and ask them to send you an electronic copy ...

I did it in Jan when they announce 2c SPP and I am about to go oversea so I got them send me
an electronic copy and I bpay the payment from oversea...

Ring 1300 850 505 if you are anxious


----------



## galumay (10 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

You can actually login to Computershare and recover the offer from there and make a Bpay online payment and there is no need to fill anything else out.

* Login

* Click on "My Documents"

* Select AHZ from your holdings

* Download Entitlement Acceptances

You don't need to fill it in if using Bpay, just use the biller reference & ID.


----------



## gambloring (10 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



craggles123 said:


> Hi All,
> 
> I still havent recieved any paperwork with regards to the rights issue.
> 
> ...




I only received my paperwork this afternoon, and payment is due by the 18th.


----------



## galumay (10 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> I only received my paperwork this afternoon, and payment is due by the 18th.




See my post above, the same process applies with the paperwork - if you Bpay, no need to fill anything in and you can easily make sure it goes through prior to the 18th.


----------



## craggles123 (10 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

If I pay via bpay and would like to apply for shortfall shares do I just pay for more?

Any I dont recieve will come back to me via refund?


----------



## galumay (11 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



craggles123 said:


> If I pay via bpay and would like to apply for shortfall shares do I just pay for more?
> 
> Any I dont recieve will come back to me via refund?




Yes, thats how it works.


----------



## craggles123 (11 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



galumay said:


> Yes, thats how it works.




Great thanks mate


----------



## grumstar (13 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



galumay said:


> Yes, thats how it works.




Hi i am new to share market hav AHZ shares do i take up offer and pay for any more shares i know probley very silly question but dont understand what this all means HELP


----------



## ROE (13 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> Hi i am new to share market hav AHZ shares do i take up offer and pay for any more shares i know probley very silly question but dont understand what this all means HELP




You will get more shares at 5c each ..say you got 100,000 shares you are entitle to 20% more at 5c each
so you can get 20,000 shares at 5c each once you paid the money...when done your share holding will be 120,000 shares...you can sell the extra when it allocated to you or you can hold on....


----------



## gambloring (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

So I check AHZ at 1pm, nothing interesting happening. Come back a few hours later and see and 8% gain for the day. Anyone care to speculate on what prompted that?


----------



## ROE (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I am speculating they come out with an announcement some euro country take up cardiocel patch
Or TGA approval .....


----------



## Country Lad (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> I am speculating they come out with an announcement some euro country take up cardiocel patch
> Or TGA approval .....




......or lots of people bought at a higher price


----------



## Hodgie (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> So I check AHZ at 1pm, nothing interesting happening. Come back a few hours later and see and 8% gain for the day. Anyone care to speculate on what prompted that?




An 8% movement any day of the week is not unusual for AHZ. it is more uncommon that it would have a flat day.


----------



## ROE (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Country Lad said:


> ......or lots of people bought at a higher price




sure it could be anything but I prefer to be fundamental driven rather than some random walks


----------



## grumstar (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> You will get more shares at 5c each ..say you got 100,000 shares you are entitle to 20% more at 5c each
> so you can get 20,000 shares at 5c each once you paid the money...when done your share holding will be 120,000 shares...you can sell the extra when it allocated to you or you can hold on....




thank you but dose it mean my other shares will go to .05?


----------



## Melthar (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Your shares will be whatever the trading price is on the day, so currently ~9c.  Only thing you have to be aware of is when you sell, you'll need to use the different purchase prices for capital gains calculations.


----------



## VSntchr (14 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> thank you but dose it mean my other shares will go to .05?




No!
Your shares will all be ranked equal and will be worth whatever the market price is.
The only relevance of 5c is the COST of purchasing those additional shares...


----------



## ROE (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> thank you but dose it mean my other shares will go to .05?




Grumstar take this as a constructive criticism

You asking these questions show you lack basic knowledge of the market, you need to firm up on these basic knowledge before invest more money or you could end up losing money and you don't understand why.

Can I ask how you buy AHZ in the first place? It more of a realm of experience investor with appetite for risk...


----------



## grumstar (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> Grumstar take this as a constructive criticism
> 
> You asking these questions show you lack basic knowledge of the market, you need to firm up on these basic knowledge before invest more money or you could end up losing money and you don't understand why.
> 
> Can I ask how you buy AHZ in the first place? It more of a realm of experience investor with appetite for risk...




thats fine i appreciate any advise and you are right i have no idea i just bought them cause i liked what they where involved in im only a very small time invester and apperciate any advice you can give me!!! so do i take up the offer??? 
Thanks Grumstar


----------



## Hodgie (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> thats fine i appreciate any advise and you are right i have no idea i just bought them cause i liked what they where involved in im only a very small time invester and apperciate any advice you can give me!!! so do i take up the offer???
> Thanks Grumstar




IF you are able to take up the offer then, You are purchasing shares for 5 cents which are currently trading at a much higher price.

FYI we are not allowed to provide personal advice over a public forum such as this.


----------



## ROE (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> thats fine i appreciate any advise and you are right i have no idea i just bought them cause i liked what they where involved in im only a very small time invester and apperciate any advice you can give me!!! so do i take up the offer???
> Thanks Grumstar




Can't advice but would you buy something for 5c and sell back at 10c? Currently ahz trades close to 10c ...I am speculating 10c barrier will be gone in a week by looking at supply and demand....


----------



## Country Lad (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> .......so do i take up the offer???




I am not too sure whether you are simply inexperienced or having a lend of us because there was no need for you to  ask these questions had you read the posts above.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## craggles123 (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I've had a good read through the documents and maybe I've missed something but I was wondering if anyone can explain to me how unallocated shares will be divided?

I'd very much like more than i've been offered and I've deposited money for what i'd like.

No doubt I wont get as many, i'm just wondering how they decide who gets more?


----------



## gambloring (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> thats fine i appreciate any advise and you are right i have no idea i just bought them cause i liked what they where involved in im only a very small time invester and apperciate any advice you can give me!!! so do i take up the offer???
> Thanks Grumstar




Even if someone were to say yes or no, would you really take the advice of strangers on the internet? If you phrased it differently you might get a different response. Asking people to speculate on the fundamentals will generally yield a better response.


----------



## grumstar (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> Even if someone were to say yes or no, would you really take the advice of strangers on the internet? If you phrased it differently you might get a different response. Asking people to speculate on the fundamentals will generally yield a better response.




Ok thanks for all the feedback Sorry if Ive offended anybody im not the shapest tool in the shed however i do belive i have a better understanding of the forum now. and yes i do belive in that people are honust in giving advice i have faith in people


----------



## Country Lad (15 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Having a glance at this one every now & then, I see it is probably going along as one would have expected.

Market is up, so enthusiastic buying for the first couple of hours with buys to sells around the 2.1 times mark pushing the price up to 9.7 cents.  Then the rush by people afraid of missing out thinking this is going past the magic 10 cents mark so for the next hour buys outnumber sells by 3.8 times and the price hits 10.5 cents.

Then the inevitable concern it will struggle past 10 cents and also possibly the selling to pay for the rights issue and over the next hour sells outnumber buys by 2 to 1 and the price falls back to 9.7.

Then for the next hour and a quarter, things slow down, optimism raises its head again, buyers come in thinking the 10 cents will come again and the buys outnumber the sells nearly 10 to 1 and naturally, the price is up again to around the 10 cents. 

Copy book day trader stuff so far.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## gambloring (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



grumstar said:


> Ok thanks for all the feedback Sorry if Ive offended anybody im not the shapest tool in the shed however i do belive i have a better understanding of the forum now. and yes i do belive in that people are honust in giving advice i have faith in people




All good, not offended at all, I just don't want to give anyone a bum steer. People may be honest, but that doesn't preclude them from giving bad advice, or advice that doesn't suit your situation. Just something to keep in mind


----------



## gambloring (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Off like a rocket for the third day in a row, feels like we're nearing the top of the rollercoaster


----------



## Hodgie (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> Off like a rocket for the third day in a row, feels like we're nearing the top of the rollercoaster




It depends which rollarcoaster your on. What if this rollarcoaster goes for years and your not even close to the top!


----------



## ROE (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

This is a classic Phil Fisher type of stock where you fund it from the beginning and have staying power and ride through all the phases of its development of initial startup right to production and generating profit and dividend -

Do not be tempted by quick bucks or some bump on the road, as long as management is meeting milestones then you should stick with it ...the future reward is far greater.... 

Good luck for those onboard


----------



## Country Lad (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Chart is starting to look like a real one.


----------



## gambloring (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Country Lad said:


> Chart is starting to look like a real one.




Could you elaborate a little further on that point? I'm quite interested in learning more about chart analysis.


----------



## Country Lad (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> Could you elaborate a little further on that point? I'm quite interested in learning more about chart analysis.




Has developed some worthwhile patterns.  You can find plenty of discussion on patterns and P&F charts by using the search facility.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## galumay (16 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> This is a classic Phil Fisher type of stock where you fund it from the beginning and have staying power and ride through all the phases of its development of initial startup right to production and generating profit and dividend -
> 
> Do not be tempted by quick bucks or some bump on the road, as long as management is meeting milestones then you should stick with it ...the future reward is far greater....
> 
> Good luck for those onboard




Spot on ROE, this is one that has the potential to be one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. 

I have already taken 3 separate speculative positions in this stock, if it keeps delivering I will happily follow it up through its development and adding to my position. I look forward to it becoming part of my investment portfolio with a much larger position once it takes the next step.


----------



## Flamin Joe (17 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> Do not be tempted by quick bucks or some bump on the road, as long as management is meeting milestones then you should stick with it ...the future reward is far greater....




Being new to the share market game, I was so tempted to do this after the gains I saw this morning!  I've got a relatively small amount of AHZ shares but I still saw a huge (for me) jump in profit when it opened 1.5 cents higher. I could of walked away with quite a hefty sum for someone only just getting their feet wet but decided against this. After doing my research and hearing what others have said both here as elsewhere, I decided on this a while back to be a long term investment, not a quick grab for cash.

I'm enjoying the ride.


----------



## ROE (17 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Flamin Joe said:


> Being new to the share market game, I was so tempted to do this after the gains I saw this morning!  I've got a relatively small amount of AHZ shares but I still saw a huge (for me) jump in profit when it opened 1.5 cents higher. I could of walked away with quite a hefty sum for someone only just getting their feet wet but decided against this. After doing my research and hearing what others have said both here as elsewhere, I decided on this a while back to be a long term investment, not a quick grab for cash.
> 
> I'm enjoying the ride.




There are so many announcement in the pipe line for AHZ so it going to be an exciting ride for 2014

TGA Approval

FDA Approval

Cardiocel in Europe take up and their 1.5m investment in production expansion...

Vaccine Phase 2 trial soon, Phase 1 about to complete with no safety issues

Their Medical Device division ...quiet  achiever this one... I went to some old age care facility and see lot of AHZ logo.

and it has Andrew Forrest as a backer and corner stone investor so funding is not going to be an issue down the road if needed 

PS: do what you feel is right for you, I just throw my thoughts out there..if you want to sell or whatever make you happy you should act on it


----------



## VSntchr (17 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> There are so many announcement in the pipe line for AHZ so it going to be an exciting ride for 2014
> 
> TGA Approval
> 
> ...




Is the support of Andrew Forrest the clincher for you with this one ROE?
It is a holding that differs from your usual investment portfolio...(from that which I have observed you posting on). Do you think that AHZ legitimately stands out from all the other bio techs. With only 7.4m in existing sales the market is now expecting growth to boom. Without any sales via cardiocel to model from, it still seems highly speculative as to how beneficial cardiocel etc can be once they begin receiving orders..

There are alot of very bright and positive stories among the biotechs...so I like to reask some of these questions to make sure I am honest with myself when analysing the company.

PS. Not questioning your investment - just looking for further insight into your process with this one.


----------



## ROE (18 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> Is the support of Andrew Forrest the clincher for you with this one ROE?
> It is a holding that differs from your usual investment portfolio...(from that which I have observed you posting on). Do you think that AHZ legitimately stands out from all the other bio techs. With only 7.4m in existing sales the market is now expecting growth to boom. Without any sales via cardiocel to model from, it still seems highly speculative as to how beneficial cardiocel etc can be once they begin receiving orders..
> 
> There are alot of very bright and positive stories among the biotechs...so I like to reask some of these questions to make sure I am honest with myself when analysing the company.
> ...




I believe they can come up with herpes vaccine ... This is a massive market ....
The current valuation justified with cardiocel patch and medical device division so you get the vaccine work for free...

I reckon cardiocel and medical division alone will make it cash flow positive in a few years and that enough to fund vaccine research .... And if they do come up with the vaccine .... I am happy to chip in for them to start large scale manufacturing for the vaccine....

When they start making profit and pay dividend my work is done 

While I wait I have plenty of dividend coming in from other stocks 

Biotech is a very long term game and nothing stopping you from taking profit every so often now till then
As long as you can maintain some sort of holding for further upside....


----------



## grumstar (20 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> This is a classic Phil Fisher type of stock where you fund it from the beginning and have staying power and ride through all the phases of its development of initial startup right to production and generating profit and dividend -
> 
> Do not be tempted by quick bucks or some bump on the road, as long as management is meeting milestones then you should stick with it ...the future reward is far greater....
> 
> Good luck for those onboard




Hey ROE as you already know i am new to this forum is there a place on this site where you may have convesations with people such as yoreself?
Thanks


----------



## galumay (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

AHZ up nearly 20% to 0.125c on the news that the rights issue was oversubscribed, not sure of the maths of that, but that is a very strong endorsement on the future of the company. I would have expected an easing of the pricing to reflect the greater number of shares on the market as of tomorrow.


----------



## ROE (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I applied for 20% extra of my allocation and look like I can get between 15% extra -


----------



## Flamin Joe (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



galumay said:


> AHZ up nearly 20% to 0.125c on the news that the rights issue was oversubscribed, not sure of the maths of that, but that is a very strong endorsement on the future of the company. *I would have expected an easing of the pricing to reflect the greater number of shares on the market as of tomorrow.*




That's what I'm hoping for tomorrow. Saw an opportunity which was too hard to ignore and finally gave into temptation after passing the other time. Sold my parcel of shares at 0.125c making $1,330 profit on my initial investment. Not bad in my opinion considering I'm new to all this and I've only had these shares for just over a month. 

Still got my share offer allocation to fall back on when it comes through and if there's a nice drop tomorrow, it's time to load up again!


----------



## VSntchr (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> I applied for 20% extra of my allocation and look like I can get between 15% extra -




I think its going to be 18%.
I threw about 15% extra in what I thought was a hopeless attempt. 
Looks like some holders must have been asleep at the wheel to miss out on the 95%+ guaranteed win!


----------



## ROE (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> I think its going to be 18%.
> I threw about 15% extra in what I thought was a hopeless attempt.
> Looks like some holders must have been asleep at the wheel to miss out on the 95%+ guaranteed win!




There are always these people in most cap raising so I always apply for extra after I work out the quick maths 
And make sure I don't send too much in ....so this time 20% extra is fairly spot on -


----------



## ROE (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Flamin Joe said:


> That's what I'm hoping for tomorrow. Saw an opportunity which was too hard to ignore and finally gave into temptation after passing the other time. Sold my parcel of shares at 0.125c making $1,330 profit on my initial investment. Not bad in my opinion considering I'm new to all this and I've only had these shares for just over a month.
> 
> Still got my share offer allocation to fall back on when it comes through and if there's a nice drop tomorrow, it's time to load up again!




Nice - hope you have many more success


----------



## craggles123 (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> I think its going to be 18%.
> I threw about 15% extra in what I thought was a hopeless attempt.
> Looks like some holders must have been asleep at the wheel to miss out on the 95%+ guaranteed win!




lol I was greedy and applied for double my holding, just in case some people were asleep.

Refund will come through eventually, money wasn't doing anything anyways.


----------



## galumay (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> I applied for 20% extra of my allocation and look like I can get between 15% extra -




I applied for more than 20%, but I am very happy to pick up a good bundle at 5c to add to my holding!


----------



## herzy (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> There are always these people in most cap raising so I always apply for extra after I work out the quick maths
> *And make sure I don't send too much in* ....so this time 20% extra is fairly spot on -




Why?


----------



## ROE (23 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



herzy said:


> Why?




Cos spare cash sit on high interest account and use for margin for shorting stocks, sending too much away and not getting it back for a few weeks I lose out on interest and pay more margin...

My cash never sits idle...it either earn interest...use for shorting or earning premium from options ..sometimes it do both earns interest while covered naked put option and earn premium....


----------



## ROE (24 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Good news for those who applied for a lot more ...I got all my allocated so the number will be higher than 20% of your entitlement


----------



## gambloring (24 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

When should I expect the allocation of shares I purchased to be delivered?


----------



## ROE (24 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Now in computer share registry may take until tomorrow to register into your broker account


----------



## Flamin Joe (24 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> Now in computer share registry may take until tomorrow to register into your broker account




Should that be automatic or do you need to notify your broker?

I'm trading with CommSecc and there is a online form to transfer issuer holdings but I don't have my SRN on me to fill it out.


----------



## Melthar (24 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Looks like I managed about 30% more than my allotment.  Unfortunately my holding wasn't that large in the first place, but still a nice bonus.


----------



## craggles123 (24 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Melthar said:


> Looks like I managed about 30% more than my allotment.  Unfortunately my holding wasn't that large in the first place, but still a nice bonus.




Similarly I recieved an additional 31% above my allotment


----------



## galumay (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Off and flying again today, hit 0.14c so I am up 90% overall on my position (including the rights issue).

Strap in people!


----------



## ROE (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



galumay said:


> Off and flying again today, hit 0.14c so I am up 90% overall on my position (including the rights issue).
> 
> Strap in people!




Hit 15 all time high, fall back 14c ...it has a habit of falling a bit after hitting new high 
then rally again to new all time high after a while -


----------



## Ves (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> Hit 15 all time high, fall back 14c ...it has a habit of falling a bit after hitting new high
> then rally again to new all time high after a while -



Didn't it list at $0.20 in March 2004?  Bobbled above there for a bit too.  Don't think there is any stock splits not included in the chart.


----------



## Flamin Joe (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I wonder how long it will last this high? I must admit I'm quite surprised by the jump today, especially considering there was a little drop towards the end of the day yesterday. I was thinking it was going to hover around the 11c-12c mark for a few days but hey, what do I know I'm new to this! 

I wonder if a lot of the trade today was the fear of missing out which just snowballed? There were less than 100 trades by lunchtime and not a lot of movement, then I come back to find it took off! Fascinating.


----------



## ROE (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Case of supply an demand ...seller virtually dry up ...  8 to 1 buyer to seller
Lot of people on register must be long term holder so there isn't many shares available to trade.....

You want in you have to pay hefty premium...


----------



## ROE (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Ves said:


> Didn't it list at $0.20 in March 2004?  Bobbled above there for a bit too.  Don't think there is any stock splits not included in the chart.




This is a Andrew Forrest back door listing of another biotech stock BioMD can't remember the name exactly ...
I bought in around the time they do the back door listing because of my interest in Coridon 

I read a paper on it a few years back and I have it stuck on my desk and keep an eye on it and said if this thing ever listed I will buy in.... Found out Andrew Forest AHZ owned a chunk of this business and So I buy AHZ ...soon it has 60% control of Coridon .... Cardiocel stuff is a nice surprise and tracking really well and it could be the cash cow AHZ need to full filled its HVP vaccine .... The vaccine stuff will come out of the left field and would blow everyone away some day ...

Remind me a story of Texas instrument when its main money is semiconductor ...
It throw a bit of money into DSP research didn't expect much in return...bugger all money something like less than a few percent of their earning...

This DSP then came out of the left field became its leading earning power and they became the world largest DSP producer  DSP still making them money today ...

No one pay attention to AHZ vaccine, it a long way to go etc and give them small chance of success - let the vaccine be TI DSP -


----------



## galumay (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

You have to remember how tightly held this company is, its not easy to flush sellers out, most are in it for the long haul and not very interested in profit taking along the way. 

I am now up over 100% on my parcels overall and would not consider selling at 0.15c

EDIT - missed ROE's post essentially saying the same thing above.


----------



## Flamin Joe (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

In hindsight (it's a wonderful thing isn't it?) I should of probably resisted the temptation to sell the parcel I had earlier. It was always my intention to hold this stock for the long term, but I took a gamble thinking it would drop down a little like it did a few times earlier and I could pick some more stock on the way down. But these are the lessons you learn and if your profiting along the way, it can't be all bad! 

I still managed to pick up some extra stock and largely thanks to the share offer parcel, my average price is a fair way off so I'm still sitting nicely in the green. But I think it's time to strap on the seat belt and see if I can pick up any scraps along the way.


----------



## Hodgie (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Flamin Joe said:


> In hindsight (it's a wonderful thing isn't it?) I should of probably resisted the temptation to sell the parcel I had earlier. It was always my intention to hold this stock for the long term, but I took a gamble thinking it would drop down a little like it did a few times earlier and I could pick some more stock on the way down. But these are the lessons you learn and if your profiting along the way, it can't be all bad!
> 
> I still managed to pick up some extra stock and largely thanks to the share offer parcel, my average price is a fair way off so I'm still sitting nicely in the green. But I think it's time to strap on the seat belt and see if I can pick up any scraps along the way.




Gotta stick to your guns. Not a good idea to change your strategy based on short term price fluctuations if this is irrelevant to the reason you purchased the stock to begin with..... it can get messy purchasing a stock based on fundamentals then begin trying to trade in the short term based on some form of tech analysis or market sentiment.


----------



## burglar (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Flamin Joe said:


> ... but I took a gamble thinking it would drop down a little like it did a few times earlier and I could pick some more stock on the way down ...




Don't beat yourself up over it!

There are plenty of people will do that for you!

Cheers,


----------



## ROE (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Hodgie said:


> Gotta stick to your guns. Not a good idea to change your strategy based on short term price fluctuations if this is irrelevant to the reason you purchased the stock to begin with..... it can get messy purchasing a stock based on fundamentals then begin trying to trade in the short term based on some form of tech analysis or market sentiment.




+1 Agree not blaming you for taking profit but you need to be consistent in your approach ... 
you either invest for long term or if you want to trade.... 

don't trade out of your long term position maintain some sort of exposure to the upside ...
My approach to this is I buy another parcel and trade or buy double my position ...one to maintain
the exposure and 1 to trade in and out but never completely get out...

you not going to get them correct 100% but a consistent approach pays in the long run in trading or in long term investing and you less likely to make mistake...



> ... but I took a gamble thinking it would drop down a little like it did a few times earlier and I could pick some more stock on the way down ...



Lot of people on hotcopper selling out early this week thinking today it drop because people has 20% more shares
so don't think you are the only one ... market is unpredictable at its best 

I try to help them with the logic about stock will drop today
http://www.hotcopper.com/post_threadview.asp?fid=307&tid=2090865&msgno=26872#26872


----------



## gambloring (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



Flamin Joe said:


> In hindsight (it's a wonderful thing isn't it?) I should of probably resisted the temptation to sell the parcel I had earlier. It was always my intention to hold this stock for the long term, but I took a gamble thinking it would drop down a little like it did a few times earlier and I could pick some more stock on the way down. But these are the lessons you learn and if your profiting along the way, it can't be all bad!
> 
> I still managed to pick up some extra stock and largely thanks to the share offer parcel, my average price is a fair way off so I'm still sitting nicely in the green. But I think it's time to strap on the seat belt and see if I can pick up any scraps along the way.




I got out too. I'd been holding since 0.06 and always intended to get out around 0.12. I missed my out last week when it touched 0.12, and this week I doubled my cash after months of waiting. Stuck to my strategy. No regrets.


----------



## Ves (25 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> This is a Andrew Forrest back door listing of another biotech stock BioMD can't remember the name exactly ...



Thanks ROE - didn't realise about the backdoor listing  (which obviously isn't shown on any long-term charts).  So  I understand about your comment about the all-time highs now.  Cheers.


----------



## galumay (29 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Please remain calm, stay in your seats and tighten your belts! 17c this morning and away.


----------



## ROE (29 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

The rocket is just lifting off and the mass just about to spot the rocket fuel
With a nice Published article on AFR yesterday lift out ....


----------



## ROE (31 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Won biotech conference in Brisbane emerging company of the year last night
That will get a few people notice


----------



## VSntchr (31 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

They just keep kicking goals don't they!

Are we watching the next major Aussie company taking off from its infancy? Whilst I am young and have never seen it happen from start to finish before - it certainly feels like it.
I'm eager to see sales out of Europe start so we can get a better idea of potential revenue growth going forward.. 
 Happy Halloween


----------



## Flamin Joe (31 October 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I've learnt my lessons, I'm all stocked up and ready to ride whatever happens.  Based on all the positive things I've been hearing over the weeks/months, I decided to double my initial long term position because while there might be a few bumps along the way, there is just too much upside to this company to want to miss out on. 

As I understand the Quarterly report is due today? Will be interesting to see what effect that has on the price after the good news of winning the award last night. Already jumped 1c after holding steady yesterday.


----------



## gambloring (4 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



ROE said:


> Case of supply an demand ...seller virtually dry up ...  8 to 1 buyer to seller
> Lot of people on register must be long term holder so there isn't many shares available to trade.....
> 
> You want in you have to pay hefty premium...




Looks like the premium is becoming more affordable today  hoping to lock in my profit and get back in around 0.11 within the next week. Buyer to seller ratio is nearing parity.


----------



## VSntchr (4 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> Looks like the premium is becoming more affordable today  hoping to lock in my profit and get back in around 0.11 within the next week. Buyer to seller ratio is nearing parity.




And what is your plan if the SP doesn't reach 0.11 and you don't get the chance to buy back in at that price? Do you raise this theoretical entry point, or do you forget about the company?

Or what if you buy back in at 0.11 and it goes down...0.10, 0.09, 0.07 etc? Where do you re-sell? and then where do you rebuy again?

Have you got a plan for both these scenarios? Beacause if your playing the pricing game you have to be prepared for this and MORE to occur.




Watching the exuberance of this companies SP is quite enjoyable. The posts on hotcopper are pretty hilarious - each week its either going to $1+ or heading down to single figures.

Best to turn off the market and check back monthly if you beleive in this one for the long term - the short term movements are too distracting.


----------



## gambloring (4 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> And what is your plan if the SP doesn't reach 0.11 and you don't get the chance to buy back in at that price? Do you raise this theoretical entry point, or do you forget about the company?
> 
> Or what if you buy back in at 0.11 and it goes down...0.10, 0.09, 0.07 etc? Where do you re-sell? and then where do you rebuy again?
> 
> ...




Plan is to hold until it comes back otherwise I write it off as a loss. It's a part of my portfolio I can afford to lose, otherwise I wouldn't be playing with a high risk micro cap. For me re-sell will be 20% profit so, 0.132. Here is my stop/loss spreadsheet that I use http://ge.tt/9HmVW7x/v/0 - i'm sure others have far more advanced methods but most here are fairly coy for obvious reasons. This is the 6th time i've bought and sold AHZ, so far doing ok 

Plan for the scenarios is accept complete loss and ride it in to the ground if it goes that way. The money i'm playing with is a small % of profit from other trades. I've never believed in AHZ in the long term like others around here. It's a company that is yet to make any real money, lots of promises for development, but so have all the other bio meds that have come and gone. I don't think this one is any different just because twiggy is backing it. The lastest release was great: our herpes vaccine didn't kill any healthy people. Whilst that is great, I would like to see much much more and don't have the faith that others do. I am happy to trade on the swings though.

This is not advice. Do you own research, I likely have no idea what i'm talking about.


----------



## ROE (4 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

I am planning to hold tight with the roller coaster....one of these high stake stuff and you either get rich or lose a bit of money trying  it's not pure fantasy this stock so the reward is there for the taking if things work out ....

I am well adapted with the Market volatility and price rise and fall is part off the mix


----------



## Country Lad (4 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> Looks like the premium is becoming more affordable today  hoping to lock in my profit and get back in around 0.11 within the next week. Buyer to seller ratio is nearing parity.




I mentioned in another thread that I had sold SDL partly because 12.5 cents looked like a good price for a while and I needed to unload some spekkies.  I also sold AHZ the next day - it looked toppy and like SDL there was still too much hype.

It may or may not go back to 11 but today helped it on its way with a selling surge towards the end 8 times the selling to buying for the last 50 trades, nearly 4 times for the last 100 trades and nearly twice for the day.

In contrast to that, the buyer to seller has improved, but it is not all that relevant with the large quantities on each side and may change in the morning.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## VSntchr (4 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



gambloring said:


> Plan is to hold until it comes back otherwise I write it off as a loss. It's a part of my portfolio I can afford to lose, otherwise I wouldn't be playing with a high risk micro cap. For me re-sell will be 20% profit so, 0.132. Here is my stop/loss spreadsheet that I use http://ge.tt/9HmVW7x/v/0 - i'm sure others have far more advanced methods but most here are fairly coy for obvious reasons. This is the 6th time i've bought and sold AHZ, so far doing ok
> 
> Plan for the scenarios is accept complete loss and ride it in to the ground if it goes that way. The money i'm playing with is a small % of profit from other trades. I've never believed in AHZ in the long term like others around here. It's a company that is yet to make any real money, lots of promises for development, but so have all the other bio meds that have come and gone. I don't think this one is any different just because twiggy is backing it. The lastest release was great: our herpes vaccine didn't kill any healthy people. Whilst that is great, I would like to see much much more and don't have the faith that others do. I am happy to trade on the swings though.
> 
> This is not advice. Do you own research, I likely have no idea what i'm talking about.




Your reply shows you have a good plan with regard to your strategy - I made the assumption you were fundamentally investing in the company. Swing trading it in this manner is fine..carry on!


----------



## VSntchr (8 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Announcement of first sales into Europe today. Units already shipped. 
Exciting times for the company.

Very interested for more information on the financials...hopefully info soon..if not the next quarterly will be widely anticipated.


----------



## ROE (8 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*



VSntchr said:


> Announcement of first sales into Europe today. Units already shipped.
> Exciting times for the company.
> 
> Very interested for more information on the financials...hopefully info soon..if not the next quarterly will be widely anticipated.




I give it 3-6 months to see any financial details 
The more people use the more traction it will have and add more fuel for US market launch..

If we have a large up take in Australia and Europe, the American will jump on board pretty quick I reckon...


----------



## Tyler Durden (11 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

This went as high as 18.5c today, anyone think it might retrace a bit?


----------



## SuperGlue (18 November 2013)

*Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group*

Link to a write up for Biotech stocks:

http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/42153-7-biotech-stocks-with-bounding-share-prices.html


Please DYOR.


----------



## System (25 November 2013)

On November 25th, 2013, Allied Healthcare Group Limited changed its name to Admedus Limited.


----------



## ROE (25 November 2013)

System said:


> On November 25th, 2013, Allied Healthcare Group Limited changed its name to Admedus Limited.




Would it follow its fore father allied mining rename to Fortuscue metal before the spectacular run of thousand times return -


----------



## Tyler Durden (3 December 2013)

Closed at 13.5c today. Wonder if it's any cause for concern.


----------



## ROE (3 December 2013)

Still a speculative stocks with promising future, so only for investor with cash and high risk tolerant  ..this is indeed high risk high return scenario..

Until it generates profit it will be bound to market sentiments


----------



## VSntchr (3 December 2013)

No cause for concern.
If you are investing in AHZ you must be prepared for the overshooting when the market is excited and then the subsequent retraces when the profit taking and short term traders scramble for the exits.
Alot of money has been flowing to ADO the past few weeks, I'd bet that some of that money has come from AHZ.

It doesn't take long for the hype to die off and the quick money chasers to scram.


That aside, I felt that at 18c the price was being inflated by hopes of success with the vaccine coming through.
Based on some very simple assumptions and modelling (this is now quite a small position for me) I think that the existing operations plus CardioCell are worth close to market price. So any upside from here either comes from growth above what I have assumed in the existing+Cardio.....or.....revenue from the vaccine.

Thats a very basic take on how I see the value in this. Speculation could take the price anywhere from 5c to 50c over the coming months!


----------



## Valued (4 December 2013)

It takes a strong stomach to invest into a negative cash flow zero profit company with no assets which has been losing shareholders' money for almost ten years now.

Then again, medical breakthroughs won't happen if no one will ever invest in the people to research them. I always thought this was more for government to invest in with our tax dollars.


----------



## Baker1494 (4 December 2013)

Definately takes a strong stomach.

Wont be complaining though if it falls by 50%. Def high risk. But if down 50% would be nice to pick some more up.


----------



## ROE (4 December 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> Closed at 13.5c today. Wonder if it's any cause for concern.




No concern for me ... I ride it from 6c to 2c to 18c now to 13c 
along the way I buy and sell accordingly and isn't doing too bad out of it.

the best one would have been 2c Jan Last year  and some more Yesterday


----------



## Tyler Durden (4 December 2013)

Thanks for the reassurances.
It's definitely very interesting to see everyone's different views on the risk involved with this stock (it's only my third high risk stock).


----------



## Valued (4 December 2013)

It all depends on the size of your portfolio and the percentage you put into this too. For example, I am going to need a lot of cash in about 7 months time since I am going into business for myself. I am not going to risk my cash position thereby putting my business plans on hold over something very risky. If CBA dropped by 50% tomorrow for no reason other than a lot of people are selling up and retiring I would take every last cent and sell everything else I own and put everything into that. That's because it's such a good investment. For a company like this, I would only be willing to put in a few percent of my entire portfolio but because I have to keep a lot of cash around for business expenses, I can't risk it on something that has been losing its owners' money for almost a decade.


----------



## gambloring (5 December 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> Closed at 13.5c today. Wonder if it's any cause for concern.




Not a concern so long as you picked some up before it went back to 0.15 today


----------



## gambloring (12 December 2013)

Looks like the tide is turning slightly and the depth is shifting


----------



## Melthar (12 December 2013)

gambloring said:


> Looks like the tide is turning slightly and the depth is shifting




In an upwards direction?

Today's announcement on manufacturing seems promising, if somewhat light on detail.


----------



## piggybank (12 December 2013)

Melthar said:


> In an upwards direction?
> 
> Today's announcement on manufacturing seems promising, if somewhat light on detail.




Today's announcement can be read by clicking on the link...

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AHZ&E=ASX&N=661625


----------



## richardgeary (16 December 2013)

piggybank said:


> Today's announcement can be read by clicking on the link...
> 
> http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AHZ&E=ASX&N=661625
> 
> View attachment 55802






Anyone out there as anxious as me awaiting results on the HSV vaccine. They did say before Christmas right ? Well they are leaving it pretty tight. I sure hope it is a goer as I have a mountain of ahz shares.


----------



## craggles123 (16 December 2013)

Good things come to those who wait


----------



## gambloring (17 December 2013)

craggles123 said:


> Good things come to those who wait




Does that mean procrastination is a virtue?


----------



## richardgeary (17 December 2013)

gambloring said:


> Does that mean procrastination is a virtue?






I sure hope you are right Craig


----------



## craggles123 (17 December 2013)

gambloring said:


> Does that mean procrastination is a virtue?




Haha who knows, in regards to stock I dont think so.


----------



## gambloring (8 January 2014)

richardgeary said:


> Anyone out there as anxious as me awaiting results on the HSV vaccine. They did say before Christmas right ? Well they are leaving it pretty tight. I sure hope it is a goer as I have a mountain of ahz shares.




Those mountain of shares are worth a little more today


----------



## richardgeary (8 January 2014)

gambloring said:


> Those mountain of shares are worth a little more today




Today anyhow. I'm waiting on that ann still they have taken blood tests before Christmas so they should know if there is an immune response by now. If there is this will probably be one of the best stocks on the ASX pretty quickly as it will more importantly prove that their technology works and a cure for Hep c and aids wont be far away.


----------



## VSntchr (8 January 2014)

richardgeary said:


> Today anyhow. I'm waiting on that ann still they have taken blood tests before Christmas so they should know if there is an immune response by now. If there is this will probably be one of the best stocks on the ASX pretty quickly as it will more importantly prove that their technology works and a cure for Hep c and aids wont be far away.




I was under the impression that the pending announcement is only in relation to the safety of the vaccine in-vivo in non infected humans, rather than results measuring its efficacy.


----------



## Purple XS2 (9 January 2014)

richardgeary said:


> ... a cure for Hep c and aids wont be far away.




A cure for either, coming from anywhere, is a decade away. And that would be a medical miracle. Anyone investing in Admedus with a shorter time frame of expectation is going to be disappointed.

Ademdus' real strength is the Cardiocel patch. It's stood up to verification and certification (at least for the E.U. so far), and it's on the shelves. As clarity emerges as to what sort of revenue stream Cardiocel produces, so will AHZ's share price find its value.

The medical research side for the vaccines is a value-add for as long as there's _hope_ that something useful and patentable eventually, in our lifetime, emerges. Medical history would suggest that the odds are that the projects will soldier on for years and years and eventually wind up with no result. Is this story going to be any different? Maybe. That's where the hope lies.

I disclose buckets of AHZ.


----------



## VSntchr (3 February 2014)

The AHZ story rolls on with announcement of Phase I trials out this morning. Looks like the herpes vaccine is not only safe but generated a T-cell response in non affected humans....


----------



## Tyler Durden (3 February 2014)

VSntchr said:


> The AHZ story rolls on with announcement of Phase I trials out this morning. Looks like the herpes vaccine is not only safe but generated a T-cell response in non affected humans....




Yes jumped out at 17.5c but dropped down to 16-16.5c during the rest of the day. Looks like a hard ceiling at 17.5c...


----------



## ROE (10 February 2014)

Jackpot FDA approval given ...announcement release to the market this morning
the bonus is the approval is even more broad than the EU approval..


----------



## galumay (10 February 2014)

Yes, great news. While its probably going to cause another jump in the price in the short term, the really positive thing about the news is that between Europe and the US market we should start to see AHZ generate some real earning s now. The next 12 months could be exciting!


----------



## Tyler Durden (10 February 2014)

I'm really baffled about today's SP action. I read the announcement before 10am and thought this was great news, that it'd certainly break the 19c barrier. But it hit a high of 18.5c in the morning and closed at 17.5c.

What gives?? Market - y u no likey???


----------



## VSntchr (10 February 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> I'm really baffled about today's SP action. I read the announcement before 10am and thought this was great news, that it'd certainly break the 19c barrier. But it hit a high of 18.5c in the morning and closed at 17.5c.
> 
> What gives?? Market - y u no likey???




Lots of possible reasons.
-Market assumed the FDA was a given.
-People are sitting on a 6 bagger already and want to take some risk off the table.
-Its been over 12 months since AHZ became quite "popular", so some who have been holding off selling to get the 50% discount on CGT may now be selling.
-Big holder is decreasing position
-All in all, the stock still went up, so I wouldn't say the market didn't like it!

Keep in mind that the current price assumes that Cardiocell will produce alot of revenue for the company over the coming years...so until AHZ can show some concrete evidence that its got what it takes to sell this product the exponential rising MAY have a ceiling on it.

The company has shown that it has got what it takes to create the product, but selling is a whole other ball game. They need to have effective production, marketing, distribution, pricing etc...


----------



## Purple XS2 (18 April 2014)

With the marvel of retrospect, we could surmise AHZ's decline from its highs reflects a general withdrawal of speculative funds - amid much profit taking - from the biotech sector (3-monthly chart, 'XHJ' healthcare sector in blue):





Biotechs each find their own reason for rising (or not), but they don't mind being sociable when they all fall. Amid the general deflating, the question is: which biotechs will be the first to recover?

I dsclose buckets of Admedus. Also a few BLT, CDY, GTG, NEU


----------



## ROE (25 April 2014)

Latest report looks good, After sold down close to 500,000 shares I am now back up close to 1m shares


----------



## jancha (3 May 2014)

ROE said:


> Latest report looks good, After sold down close to 500,000 shares I am now back up close to 1m shares




Interesting company and have bought in at 13c as a long term prospect.
I like the idea of being part of a company that help kids to have a better chance in life.
My thinking is once the patches are excepted globally as the best method for this type of medical procedure sales should improve along with revenue.
 It does bother me however that the sp continues to fall. Any thoughts as to why? Other than that the majority of bio stocks being down.


----------



## galumay (3 May 2014)

jancha said:


> It does bother me however that the sp continues to fall. Any thoughts as to why? Other than that the majority of bio stocks being down.




Trying to guess why the market prices a share at a certain point is a mug's game, but I will have a shot! There was a lot of potential priced into AHZ, all the announcements that came through confirmed a lot of that potential - but earnings will still take a while to build and create real value in AHZ. So the price has stabilised within a range the market thinks reflects that. 

Before any confirmation of the potential it traded between 4-7c so the fact its trading in a range of 10-15c is reflective of events IMO.


----------



## ROE (3 May 2014)

galumay is  reasonable answer or you can check the hotcopper answer for stuff like manipulation, someone deliberately hold it down, bankers 

My take is I don't really know, I invest in the business as long as I can see potential and it stacks up
until things change like they got untrustworthy management, they waste money on acquisition that doesn't make sense, balance sheet is significantly deteriorate, keys fundamental measures change for the worse 

then I admit I got it wrong and I exit but until then price move up and down has no bearing on my decision.

Having said that I do take opportunity to exit at price I think is too hot even nothing is change or I buy extra parcel to trade in and out to take advantage of volatility etc.

At this stage as far as I can see AHZ is doing all the right thing, they meet all the milestones.

Revenue and profit is a Litmus test for a lot of investors and fund managers so that may go some way to explain 
it may not race too far ahead until they start producing profit and attracting more investors.

This is my speculative stocks like Peter Lynch said, as well as something I want to do...I want to fund it to do research buying its stock is not enough...when they ask for hand out through 

CR for more funding that where the real impact is, you can give them more money to further research into this wonderful technology that make many people life a lot better...I participate twice in their CR...and if they need more down the track I will give them more...

I know full well it may not work out so I am all prepared for it so I am in a worry free camp, I do keep tab on its development and announcement but I don't worry about the SP movement..

You have to decide where you stand when buying stock, get worry when it went down is stressful stuff as you cant control or predict its price movement...you got to control things that you can control and apply to the stock you hold.


----------



## ROE (7 May 2014)

Steady as she goes hitting another milestone.

CARDIOCEL ® SALES UPDATE – 1st
SALES ORDERS FOR THE US 
Admedus gets first sales orders in the US market 
Launched in Europe with key centres targeted 
CardioCel ® on show at AATS conference in Toronto this month


----------



## Tyler Durden (7 May 2014)

ROE said:


> Steady as she goes hitting another milestone.
> 
> CARDIOCEL ® SALES UPDATE – 1st
> SALES ORDERS FOR THE US
> ...




I hold a bit of AHZ so have been keeping an eye on it. Very odd that the market hardly reacted to this.


----------



## Purple XS2 (8 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> I hold a bit of AHZ so have been keeping an eye on it. Very odd that the market hardly reacted to ( first US sales of Cardiocel ).




Trading halt today, cap-raising. Looks like the smart money saw it coming.

Once this episode runs its course, the unseen anvil is lifted. Past cap-raises have been in the form of (at least in part) rights issues, but I have no information about this one. We'll see the fine print soon enough. If it is limited to sophisticated and institutional investors, it saves me wondering where I'll get the money to chip in! 

I disclose mountains of Admedus.


----------



## Tyler Durden (8 May 2014)

Purple XS2 said:


> Trading halt today, cap-raising. Looks like the smart money saw it coming.
> 
> Once this episode runs its course, the unseen anvil is lifted. Past cap-raises have been in the form of (at least in part) rights issues, but I have no information about this one. We'll see the fine print soon enough. If it is limited to sophisticated and institutional investors, it saves me wondering where I'll get the money to chip in!
> 
> I disclose mountains of Admedus.




Damnit! Guess I'm the dumb money then


----------



## grumstar (9 May 2014)

Purple XS2 said:


> Trading halt today, cap-raising. Looks like the smart money saw it coming.
> 
> Once this episode runs its course, the unseen anvil is lifted. Past cap-raises have been in the form of (at least in part) rights issues, but I have no information about this one. We'll see the fine print soon enough. If it is limited to sophisticated and institutional investors, it saves me wondering where I'll get the money to chip in!
> 
> I disclose mountains of Admedus.




Is this good news or bad news


----------



## VSntchr (9 May 2014)

grumstar said:


> Is this good news or bad news




More will be known when the details are released. But from a basic perspective - AHZ is a growth company and many people are investing based on extrapolative earnings growth from here...and to achieve this, the company will require capital. 
The fact that they have done this raising now, despite still having cash on the balance sheet lends me to believe that they have it earmarked for a special purpose (i.e. specific vaccine trial based on prelim results, Cardiocel demand has been identified and capital budgeting requirements have been set)..these are just very quick possibilities that come to mind.

As always with these companies it is speculative and take what I have said above as an opinion only.


----------



## grumstar (9 May 2014)

VSntchr said:


> More will be known when the details are released. But from a basic perspective - AHZ is a growth company and many people are investing based on extrapolative earnings growth from here...and to achieve this, the company will require capital.
> The fact that they have done this raising now, despite still having cash on the balance sheet lends me to believe that they have it earmarked for a special purpose (i.e. specific vaccine trial based on prelim results, Cardiocel demand has been identified and capital budgeting requirements have been set)..these are just very quick possibilities that come to mind.
> 
> As always with these companies it is speculative and take what I have said above as an opinion only.




Thank you , Im learning more and more each day


----------



## ROE (9 May 2014)

yeah wait for the details ...management has been top class so I have faith in them doing good for shareholders...they may even surprise us with some news accompany with the SPP announcement on Monday


----------



## Ves (9 May 2014)

They are selling smart pump technology now??

http://www.admedus.com/au/2014/05/08/latest-smart-pump-technology/

The Hotcopper crew were also talking about a mob called Gennocea (which Bill Gates put money into) ,  who have an upcoming IPO.  Similar field of vaccinne I believe??   Not sure how that affects AHZ.


----------



## ROE (9 May 2014)

Ves said:


> They are selling smart pump technology now??
> 
> http://www.admedus.com/au/2014/05/08/latest-smart-pump-technology/
> 
> The Hotcopper crew were also talking about a mob called Gennocea (which Bill Gates put money into) ,  who have an upcoming IPO.  Similar field of vaccinne I believe??   Not sure how that affects AHZ.




This field is fairly new so the more people involve the more data we can gather and hopefully learn from one another and all of us will benefit


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## DeepState (10 May 2014)

ROE said:


> ...management has been top class so I have faith in them doing good for shareholders...




Hi.  

AHZ-AU grows in large part though the acquisition of companies with promising pipeline.  I believe it to be a significant part of its value proposition in addition to guiding further development, achieving approvals and marketing successful products.

In relation to strength of management, it appears that their operational ability is good.  But in relation to acquisitions, the impairment test required in 2012 saw a $5.4 million impairment charge taken on the books for Celxcel.  This was around 50% of equity and approximately equal to an entire year's worth of financing from cashflow.  That's a massive miss and has to be regarded as a pretty large black mark on the acquisition front - particularly in relation to risk management of the portfolio.  Another test will be required in 2014.

In relation to the proposition for the share price, the RBS Morgans analyst report of 25 October 2013 seems to have been a strong catalyst in addition to achieving the CE mark for CardioCel in Europe in August 2013 and achieving first surgeon approval use on 8 October 2013.  However, just for a reality check, RBS Morgans are assuming 25% penetration of the entire  cardiac repair market in four years.  Not all cardiac repairs will be suitable for this technology, I imagine, making this assumption for a dominant and permanent position in the heart tissue repair market appear even more aggressive at first glance.  Also, the gross margin is assumed to be 80% where as the consolidated statements show that gross margin is more like 50% for the product suite.  They do not offer rationale for this assumption.  

It is interesting to see the share price peak out at the time of the US approval of CardioCel.  A case of buy the rumour?

Just FYI.


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## ROE (10 May 2014)

"The majority of the loss is attributed to the impairment of goodwill of $5.4 million. The goodwill resulted from the merger between Allied Healthcare Group Limited (formerly bioMD Limited) and Allied Healthcare Group Investments Pty Limited (formerly Allied Medical Limited). This transaction was accounted for using provisional accounting in the prior year. The fair value of intangibles from the transaction has been increased and this reduced the value of goodwill previously calculated. It was resolved by directors that the remaining balance of goodwill was impaired." from FY 30/06/2012

Also Celxcel is what CardioCel product today, the write off in goodwill is just a cleaning exercise, I dont think it is a black mark against management.

CardioCel will sure generate far more revenue than what is written off in good will.


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## DeepState (10 May 2014)

ROE said:


> "The majority of the loss is attributed to the impairment of goodwill of $5.4 million. The goodwill resulted from the merger between Allied Healthcare Group Limited (formerly bioMD Limited) and Allied Healthcare Group Investments Pty Limited (formerly Allied Medical Limited). This transaction was accounted for using provisional accounting in the prior year. The fair value of intangibles from the transaction has been increased and this reduced the value of goodwill previously calculated. It was resolved by directors that the remaining balance of goodwill was impaired." from FY 30/06/2012
> 
> Also Celxcel is what CardioCel product today, the write off in goodwill is just a cleaning exercise, I dont think it is a black mark against management.
> 
> CardioCel will sure generate far more revenue than what is written off in good will.




Hi RoE

You are obviously free to do your own thing and I know you will.  Just wanting to clear up my understanding as you are clearly closer to this:

From Note 11 of the FY11/12 report:

"The fair value of patents and goodwill from Allied Healthcare Group transaction were calculated on 24 June 2011. In the current year
the directors obtained an independent valuation of the intellectual property held in Celxcel Pty Ltd at the time of acquisition. The
valuation of the ADAPT tissue engineering technology has increased the fair value calculated for intangibles at 30 June 2011 by $3.5
million. This in turn caused a reduction in the goodwill value. The Directors took a conservative approach when testing goodwill for
impairment. At the date of impairment test despite positive testing of products, no product had received regulatory approval for sale.
Based on this the Directors believed no value could be placed on future earnings from these products at this time. On this basis the
Directors consider the goodwill impaired."

So, the value of goodwill was reduced in 2011 and reclassified as intangibles by $3.5million for the accounts as at 30 June 2011.  But, directors wrote down the remaining goodwill by $5.4m for the 2012 accounts after getting an independent valuation for the IP.  This implies that what they were prepared to pay for it at that date probably exceeded its carrying value at the time as they judged to be the case in true and fair accounts.  As at 30 June 2012 that goodwill was (after transfers between intellectual property and goodwill) regarded as true and fair.  It was, after all, the directors of the company that elected to write down the goodwill.

So, one year and a bit after merger, the goodwill of the combined entity was written down by a great deal by directors who are charged with giving this a fair value.  You can rightfully argue that this goodwill was just carried forward from pre-merger. But this writedown suggests a change of mind of carrying value on the basis of impairment. This is an indication of overpayment to the shareholders of the acquired entity. The total consideration was $8.6m. I think that is somewhat significant when a writedown of that level relative to acquisition expense is so large.

Operationally, management has delivered on CardioCel. No argument.

I think you don't mean revenue, but PV (after tax profit on CardioCel) being in excess of the goodwill writedown or acquisition cost plus development expenses etc..  I think you are absolutely right. So I guess it worked out well in the end.


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## galumay (12 May 2014)

AHZ announcement re share placement,

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01516889


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## galumay (12 May 2014)

galumay said:


> AHZ announcement re share placement,
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01516889




Further to my link today, I have been having a bit of a think about the placement, to 'sophisticated and professional investors' - its obviously played its part in the drop in price and lack of volatility of the last few weeks, given that Twiggy alone holds such a large percentage of issued shares its always going to effect the market. 

I guess we will have to wait and see the details to understand how much dilution will occour through the private placement and the share purchase plan.


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## Tyler Durden (12 May 2014)

It closed at 11c today.
I thought it held up fairly well given the announcement.


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## DeepState (12 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> It closed at 11c today.
> I thought it held up fairly well given the announcement.




$8m at $0.1 = 80m shares issued
VWAP of 10.8 closely matched close of 0.11
Volume of 9.6m is only a about 12% of new share issuance.  Expect selling pressure to continue for a while yet.


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## galumay (12 May 2014)

DeepState said:


> $8m at $0.1 = 80m shares issued
> VWAP of 10.8 closely matched close of 0.11
> Volume of 9.6m is only a about 12% of new share issuance.  Expect selling pressure to continue for a while yet.




Not sure the volume would have anything to do with the private share issue, but I guess some might have bought thinking they could flip for a quick 10%. I would have thought it more likely it would attract money that saw a bright future for AHZ with the extra working capital as it starts to move into the 'profitable company' stage of development.

I wont be surprised to see them hang around the 10c mark until the next bit of good news though.


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## craft (14 May 2014)

galumay said:


> Further to my link today, I have been having a bit of a think about the* placement, to 'sophisticated and professional investors' *- its obviously played its part in the drop in price and lack of volatility of the last few weeks, given that Twiggy alone holds such a large percentage of issued shares its always going to effect the market.
> 
> I guess we will have to wait and see the details to understand how much dilution will occour through the private placement and the share purchase plan.




IMO there is only limited possible logical conclusions to draw when money is raised via a placement rather then a renounceable rights issue.

The money is needed urgently. (poor growth planning or financial difficulty) 

Management view the share price as OVERVALUED at the issue price.

Management does not have all holders interest at heart and have raised via a placement either because majority holders have indicated they would not support a rights issue or to 'favour' investors who get access to the placement.

Management doesn't understand the valuation impacts on existing holders of selling the companies shares non-proportionally.


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## TheUnknown (14 May 2014)

Down further today... A good buy at 8 cents i reakon 10k worth.


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## galumay (14 May 2014)

craft said:


> IMO there is only limited possible logical conclusions to draw when money is raised via a placement rather then a renounceable rights issue.




Interesting commentary, as always, craft. So which one do you believe is the motivation in this case? Or have you no real interest in AHZ and just passing commentary on the possible reasons?

I personally consider the first option quite possible, maybe the cost of expanding into Europe & USA is greater than they expected and in order to generate the potential sales they need working capital quickly.

The second option is possible, but seems less likely to me, and would have raised its head earlier.

Again possible, especially to allow a large investor to gain a position off market, but then why bother with the SPP, and I cant see why existing large shareholders like Twiggy would not want a rights issue again. (although I am not fully cogniscant of the reasons a large holder might favour one over the other.)

I have learnt in life that over estimating management competence is a very common error, but even a cynic like I would assume that AHZ do understand the effect of non-proportional dilution!


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## DeepState (14 May 2014)

galumay said:


> Not sure the volume would have anything to do with the private share issue, but I guess some might have bought thinking they could flip for a quick 10%. I would have thought it more likely it would attract money that saw a bright future for AHZ with the extra working capital as it starts to move into the 'profitable company' stage of development.
> 
> I wont be surprised to see them hang around the 10c mark until the next bit of good news though.




Not sure how you can say it is not to do with flippers when there has been a spike of volume that is many multiples of the daily figures for months and the share price has compressed.  In any case, well, you've hit the 10c now!  

VWAP today and close at 10c
Further volume of 9m

These are flippers pushing it down.  The fair price of the stock, only allowing for the raising, which was tiny relative to capitalization was to be at the pre-announcement price less a fraction.  There has been no other news.  Markets are good.  The stock is going down despite heavy disclosed order imbalance to the long side.

In relation to moving from unprofitable to profitable, it is often a sell signal.  See the peak price was around when US FDA approval was received.  That's essentially the move to profitability there as far as the market is concerned.

Valuation for these types of companies is a joke (in terms of establishing fair price), but RBS Morgans attempted it and their assumptions are, IMO, unreasonably bullish for reasons that aren't supported.  BUY....you know.  Their valuation was $0.20, but a stack of that was related to the recent product release.  Huge margin and take-up assumptions which have large swing factors on valuation if you run the numbers. Admittedly partly offset by a probability of approval of 80% before it was known that approval would be received from US FDA. So their valuation looked rich at $0.20.  I'm not saying that adjustments can bring it down to $0.10.

Nonetheless, you are witnessing uneven pressure on the stock price which should evaporate in a few weeks.  If you like the idea, it may represent an opportunity for you.  The queue is deep!




Disclaimer: I am not a holder of AHZ.


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## skc (14 May 2014)

craft said:


> IMO there is only limited possible logical conclusions to draw when money is raised via a placement rather then a renounceable rights issue.




Other possibilities:

They were approached by new investor looking for a meaningful stake. Rights issue only allow existing investors to participate, and you never know about the liquidity / volume of renounceable rights trading.

They want money to come in before announcement of major news. E.g. A scheduled research report / milestone of which the outcome is genuinely unknown. Management wants to raise fund as a risk management measure, just in case the news turn out to be negative. Or a more sinister view: management is aware of a high possibility of bad outcome, so wants to raise money prior to a share price fall. (Note: just listing the possibilities, not implying anything one way or another).


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## DeepState (14 May 2014)

Financing History: 

Refer Changes in Capital Stock line item in the historical cash flow statements:





Fund raising in an annual event for these guys.  The $8m is small relative to 2013 raising.  They had $2m on balance sheet as at 30 June 2013 and generally maintain that sort of level.  They have no debt worth talking of. 2013 EBITDA (prior to special items) was around $8m.

This doesn't look like anything other than a financing requirement, as advertised, to me.  The insto/sophisticated placement is often preferred because it is fast and cheap for relatively small raisings - as this one was. It just happens in an (early) evening. In terms of 'unfairness' you can now buy in at the same price as the placement, if you manage to get queue priority at some stage.

If I was a retail holder, I'd be pissed that they did not do the raising shortly after the US FDA approval and dilution would have been slightly more than half of what it has been.


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## grumstar (15 May 2014)

DeepState said:


> Financing History:
> 
> Refer Changes in Capital Stock line item in the historical cash flow statements:
> 
> ...




Ok Now you have really confused me Ive been reading your posts and im a holder in AHZ only because I liked what they where doing and am relativly new to the share market. So if share price drops lower than ..10 I can buy more shares lower than the spp prise?


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## DeepState (15 May 2014)

grumstar said:


> Ok Now you have really confused me Ive been reading your posts and im a holder in AHZ only because I liked what they where doing and am relativly new to the share market. So if share price drops lower than ..10 I can buy more shares lower than the spp prise?




You weren't confused after all.  The SPP price will be at $0.10 which is in line with the insto/sophist placement.  So, given the current price is $0.10, you can get set at the same price as the SPP. If it falls below that, the SPP will likely not be successful unless the punters who want more of the stock think they can't get set at the lower price due to lack of supply relative to demand.  It will likely close undersubscribed in that event.


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## galumay (15 May 2014)

DeepState said:


> Fund raising in an annual event for these guys.  The $8m is small relative to 2013 raising.  They had $2m on balance sheet as at 30 June 2013 and generally maintain that sort of level.  They have no debt worth talking of. 2013 EBITDA (prior to special items) was around $8m.




Thats true, I think it was just the way it was done this time that drew our attention! (long term holders I mean.)



> This doesn't look like anything other than a financing requirement, as advertised, to me.  The insto/sophisticated placement is often preferred because it is fast and cheap for relatively small raisings - as this one was. It just happens in an (early) evening. In terms of 'unfairness' you can now buy in at the same price as the placement, if you manage to get queue priority at some stage.




Thats certainly one possibility, and I am a believer in Occam's razor.

I dont think its likely that there will be any opportunity to buy in at below 10c, so if we current investors want more stock it will be better to just jump on the SPP. The flippers that did buy in the private placement have long gone, support is very strong at the 10c mark.



> If I was a retail holder, I'd be pissed that they did not do the raising shortly after the US FDA approval and dilution would have been slightly more than half of what it has been.




That's based on an assumption that the sp for a placement then would have been successful at a higher price than 10c I presume?


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## DeepState (15 May 2014)

galumay said:


> 1. Thats true, I think it was just the way it was done this time that drew our attention! (long term holders I mean.)
> 
> 
> 2. I dont think its likely that there will be any opportunity to buy in at below 10c, so if we current investors want more stock it will be better to just jump on the SPP. The flippers that did buy in the private placement have long gone, support is very strong at the 10c mark.
> ...




1. The private placement to insto and sophist is standard process for this firm and how small fund raising takes place more generally.  AHZ raised capital in this way in Dec 2012, for instance.  It's totally standard and this is how it happens.  If you looked at the cash drain, it should not have surprised anyone that a capital issue would need to be made, only the amount would be in question.  They are in cash drain and cannot sustain themselves without periodic fund raising.  They are not in a position to raise debt and have not done so.

2.  If you feel that it won't fall below 0.10, then participation in the SPP will make sense.  But, you are limited in the bid amount and may be scaled back.  If you want volume, you should get in the queue. you can always decide to not participate in the SPP if you get volume at $0.10. With volume of maybe 5-8m that will likely go today, you will be close to front or through the front of the bid queue.  I'm not exactly sure how you conclude there is solid support at $0.10.  Retail may be encouraged to keep a floor on $0.10 which is the SPP price, but then again, they'd be even better off if the price slid to $0.09, so they will not be strong support during a flip period.  It had solid support in the placement, it had solid support at $0.107.  That solid support moved back about 5% in a day despite large imbalance to the long side.  If you think the flippers have gone....well, we'll have to see.  I have no idea how you develop a conclusion like that. Volume is insufficient to have cleared them out and price action suggests the complete opposite.  Not all of the placement takers will flip, but it will be more than 20% of shares placed and not all that volume is flipping.

I'll leave it to you to figure out what is fair for this company.  You can like the story, and every company has a story, but at what price?

3. The placement would have been successful at a higher price as participants would seek to avoid dilution. If they offered a 20% discount to current, it would also have been vastly oversubscribed.  Issuing at this at a higher price than is prevailing now would not impact the outcome.  Given the funds required, though, it would have led to less dilution for retail. Management did a disfavor to retail by doing this.  They would have been in the best position to know what the company was worth, in concert with their ECM advisors.  Without further material developments, the share price tanked.  They would have known of their cash requirements well in advance.


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## craft (15 May 2014)

galumay said:


> Interesting commentary, as always, craft. So which one do you believe is the motivation in this case? Or have you no real interest in AHZ and just passing commentary on the possible reasons?




Hi Galumay

No real interest in AHZ – just passing comment on the placement. Not sure which one is the case but there really is no good reason for a placement in my book. A ‘right’ of share ownership should be first offer to add more capital. If you are not extended that right it effects what valuation you should place on future growth expectations.




skc said:


> Other possibilities:
> 
> They were approached by new investor looking for a meaningful stake. Rights issue only allow existing investors to participate, and you never know about the liquidity / volume of renounceable rights trading.



Particularly distasteful use of a placement - The market is there to exchange ownership at negotiated prices. New investors should have to deal with current owners to establish positions not management - very rarely would it make sense for management working in the best interest of shareholders to make placements to new investors unless that investor was bringing something more then just passive ownership to the table.    



skc said:


> They want money to come in before announcement of major news. E.g. A scheduled research report / milestone of which the outcome is genuinely unknown. Management wants to raise fund as a risk management measure, just in case the news turn out to be negative. Or a more sinister view: management is aware of a high possibility of bad outcome, so wants to raise money prior to a share price fall. (Note: just listing the possibilities, not implying anything one way or another).




I have no issue with management managing liquidity in light of risks but it should be done in a timely enough fashion to not 'require' a placement and owners should have the first right to add capital in light of risk reward considerations.


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## Ves (15 May 2014)

craft said:


> Hi Galumay
> 
> No real interest in AHZ – just passing comment on the placement. Not sure which one is the case but there really is no good reason for a placement in my book. A ‘right’ of share ownership should be first offer to add more capital. If you are not extended that right it effects what valuation you should place on future growth expectations.



Hi craft,

I know you feel strongly about share placements and any other form of capital injection that involuntarily dilutes some of the holders on the register, so I was wondering if it is generally a big enough red flag for you to sell?   Would you need a really good reason to keep holding? Or is it just a matter of updating your valuation to reflect the effects of the dilution (and any possible further dilutions in the future if management have a track record - which I assume you would check before taking a position).


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## craft (15 May 2014)

DeepState said:


> In terms of 'unfairness' you can now buy in at the same price as the placement, if you manage to get queue priority at some stage.




The subsequent market price has no bearing on the damage done to the existing share holders value by the placement - (I can't quantify what the damage is because I can't estimate a value for the company - but many here seem very enthusiastic about the company and the fact remains that unless the shares were overvalued at 10 cents there must be damage to the value of existing holder positions)

It is the discord between the enthusiasm on this thread and my dislike for managements use of a placement that caught my attention. Whilst if you could quantify the damage from the placement it wouldn't be huge on this one occasion - more worrying is what its use says about management. If I only had one avenue for evaluating management it would be on how they transact in the company's shares.


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## craft (15 May 2014)

Ves said:


> Hi craft,
> 
> I know you feel strongly about share placements and any other form of capital injection that involuntarily dilutes some of the holders on the register, so I was wondering if it is generally a big enough red flag for you to sell?   Would you need a really good reason to keep holding? Or is it just a matter of updating your valuation to reflect the effects of the dilution (and any possible further dilutions in the future if management have a track record - which I assume you would check before taking a position).




We crossed - the last paragraph of the previous post sort of gives an answer to this - Important but not absolute, as always it depends on the overall story.


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## galumay (15 May 2014)

DeepState said:


> 1. ....stuff.....




Thanks DeepState for the detailed response, thought provoking information.


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## Ves (15 May 2014)

craft said:


> We crossed - the last paragraph of the previous post sort of gives an answer to this - Important but not absolute, as always it depends on the overall story.



Thanks,  got it.   I'm fairly similar actually - but do it more than once and there would have to be a bloody good reason.


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## grumstar (16 May 2014)

DeepState said:


> You weren't confused after all.  The SPP price will be at $0.10 which is in line with the insto/sophist placement.  So, given the current price is $0.10, you can get set at the same price as the SPP. If it falls below that, the SPP will likely not be successful unless the punters who want more of the stock think they can't get set at the lower price due to lack of supply relative to demand.  It will likely close undersubscribed in that event.




Can You please try and explain to me why people would want to sell for less than .10  that i dont understand!


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## galumay (16 May 2014)

grumstar said:


> Can You please try and explain to me why people would want to sell for less than .10  that i dont understand!




I will have a crack, simplest reason would be that they bought at some time in the past for a lot less than 10c, and want to free up the capital for some reason.


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## DeepState (16 May 2014)

grumstar said:


> Can You please try and explain to me why people would want to sell for less than .10  that i dont understand!




There are a ton of reasons.  Here are some off the top of my head:

1. Investors change their minds about the prospects of the company and decide it is worth 9c.  The valuation ranges for a company like this would be as much as 50% of the current stock price.  Within that range, anything is fair game.  If the people think it is worth 15c great, it's worth 15c and no valuation method would really dispute it too heavily.  Just as easily it can go to 9c and there is little to say that this figure is wrong.  The market just swings on instinct and herd behavior.  No news is required at all.

2. There are a ton of stops and limits at 10c.  If selling pressure pushes it through 10c, longs get squeezed out and liquidate.  This pushes the price down suddenly.

3. Investors are sitting there knowing that only 30% of Placement volume has gone through as of tonight.  Likely there will be patient money which are flippers that will take their time, they will cap out somewhere in the 11c to 12c range for instance.  This will cap the stock performance for quite a while. It could be months as volume will decline again in the next week back to background noise levels. These flippers will not dominate volume as they currently are.  They don't need to in order to control the price. Such investors may have more compelling ideas elsewhere and just need the money to be redeployed, so they sell.

4. Investors see the liquidation of some portion of their Placement as a whole trade which is tranched up for sale.  Buy flip move on.  Some of those tranches could easily be under water but no-one cares.  For most people, this is a total piss ant.

On and on it goes....


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## grumstar (16 May 2014)

DeepState said:


> There are a ton of reasons.  Here are some off the top of my head:
> 
> 1. Investors change their minds about the prospects of the company and decide it is worth 9c.  The valuation ranges for a company like this would be as much as 50% of the current stock price.  Within that range, anything is fair game.  If the people think it is worth 15c great, it's worth 15c and no valuation method would really dispute it too heavily.  Just as easily it can go to 9c and there is little to say that this figure is wrong.  The market just swings on instinct and herd behavior.  No news is required at all.
> 
> ...




Thanks peoples for your explainations.  I can know see that theres heaps of reasonds and there is a hell of a lot more reading and learning I need to do.
Hope it doesnt go down much more or I would have done the mortal sin of potting all my eggs in on basket and I do know thats a no no>


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## galumay (17 May 2014)

grumstar said:


> Thanks peoples for your explainations.  I can know see that theres heaps of reasonds and there is a hell of a lot more reading and learning I need to do.
> Hope it doesnt go down much more or I would have done the mortal sin of potting all my eggs in on basket and I do know thats a no no>




AHZ is not the type of share to use for 'putting all your eggs in one basket", its a speculative stock, basically has no earnings yet, and is impossible to calculate any intrinsic value.

I am a big fan of AHZ, but they form a tiny part of my overall portfolio because buying AHZ is like putting your money on the roulette wheel at the casino.

Even if you get lucky with AHZ, if you continue to gamble in the share market you WILL lose your shirt sooner or later.


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## VSntchr (17 May 2014)

galumay said:


> (AHZ) is impossible to calculate any intrinsic value.



I'd argue that it is _not_ impossible to calculate any intrinsic value.

I think that any business that operates and can be modelled with realistic assumptions based on relevant industry comparisons can be valued and the fact that it is not yet producing free cash flows, or at the more basic sense - earnings - merely increases the level of uncertainty and hence contributes to the larger range of valuation that RY has referred to above.

FWIW, I have followed this company since quite early on and have it valued based on my assumptions of sales and margins going forward. I am under no illusion that these assumptions WILL BE WRONG, but they are my best educated guesses and over the last 12 months I have only altered them slightly as my understanding has improved. I had a good laugh when I read the assumptions of one of the broker's covering this stock, you have to ask - are they advertising or researching!?

From the time that I purchased, to the time the SP was 18c, to now...my valuation had moved around from 8c - 12c. While that may seem like a big swing..it is far less than what the SP has done...(2c to 18c).


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## galumay (17 May 2014)

VSntchr said:


> I'd argue that it is _not_ impossible to calculate any intrinsic value.




Ok, I will concede its _not_ impossible, but I would have such low confidence in any such prediction given the assumptions required and the absence of any earnings history, as to give me no confidence to justify holding a share such as AHZ.

My view is speculative shares like AHZ are pure gambling, and I only commit funds that I dont mind losing (would still prefer not to!).


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## Tyler Durden (18 May 2014)

Ok this dipped below 10c.

Now I'm worried


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## gambloring (21 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Ok this dipped below 10c.
> 
> Now I'm worried




Why worry? This is a highly volatile and speculative stock that everyone expects to swing wildly and frequently. It's up 10% to 0.110. Maybe this the the beginning of a rally, maybe it's a dead cat bounce. Either way I'm holding my AHZ shares.


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## jancha (27 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Ok this dipped below 10c.
> 
> Now I'm worried




Twiggy selling again


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## galumay (27 May 2014)

Took up the SPP today, only a small parcel as its in my speccy portfolio, i had to think about it long and hard because it raises my average entry price at 10c but in the end I stumped up for some more.


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## jancha (28 May 2014)

galumay said:


> Took up the SPP today, only a small parcel as its in my speccy portfolio, i had to think about it long and hard because it raises my average entry price at 10c but in the end I stumped up for some more.




Why wouldn't AHZ announce how the Cardiocel sales are going before the 3rd to ensure the share offer has been taken up? Why pay 10c when it may go down further.


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## ROE (28 May 2014)

jancha said:


> Why wouldn't AHZ announce how the Cardiocel sales are going before the 3rd to ensure the share offer has been taken up? Why pay 10c when it may go down further.




Why you want AHZ management to do such a thing? their job is not to manage the stock price....the market and investors will give them that verdict...their job is to carry own developing the business and only report when there is something meaningful to report and I like it that way ...

your job is to work out whether you buy and at what price and manage risk in relation to share price movement....this is your job ..not management job...


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## jancha (29 May 2014)

ROE said:


> Why you want AHZ management to do such a thing? their job is not to manage the stock price....the market and investors will give them that verdict...their job is to carry own developing the business and only report when there is something meaningful to report and I like it that way ...
> 
> your job is to work out whether you buy and at what price and manage risk in relation to share price movement....this is your job ..not management job...




 ROE its still part of developing the business. 
It would be fair to say it's their job to ensure the offer gets taken up so they have the funds to develop future trials which leaves me wondering why management didn't announce the C/R when the sp was around 18c.(Or is that our job?)
When the anticipated report with Cardiocel approval came in the sp didn't move much (already factored in?) but stagnated instead and then began to fall and fall (holders including myself scratching their head as to why) until surprise surprise out comes the C/R at 10c. I cant help but to wonder if institutes get a sniff of what's going on before the retail buyers read the announcement.
 Sell high buy low. 
 Cardiocel sales report shouldn't far away.


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## ROE (29 May 2014)

jancha said:


> ROE its still part of developing the business.
> It would be fair to say it's their job to ensure the offer gets taken up so they have the funds to develop future trials which leaves me wondering why management didn't announce the C/R when the sp was around 18c.(Or is that our job?)
> When the anticipated report with Cardiocel approval came in the sp didn't move much (already factored in?) but stagnated instead and then began to fall and fall (holders including myself scratching their head as to why) until surprise surprise out comes the C/R at 10c. I cant help but to wonder if institutes get a sniff of what's going on before the retail buyers read the announcement.
> Sell high buy low.
> Cardiocel sales report shouldn't far away.




If you doubt management or question their conducts then you shouldn't be investing in the business.
Honest and able management are part of good investing and if you think otherwise don't get involve.

they are not there to please people or to time certain event or to manage share price....all that stuff is just "what if" and speculation..maybe they don't need the cash at 18c or has no sale data to ramp up production or whatever the reason maybe.

don't invest in the stock market when things dont go according to your plan and you start blaming management..hotcopper is a good place for these things...
or you think you know better and telling them what to do....apply for a CEO job and run a public company instead...

stock market investment has system risk and market risk, factor that into your price and ignore the bullsh@#$t

watch from 4:20 minute and see how a CEO should comments and manage share price and look at their performance...enough said...

http://www.brrmedia.com/event/11221...effernan-lonsec-rudi-filapek-vandyck-fn-arena


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## jancha (29 May 2014)

ROE said:


> If you doubt management or question their conducts then you shouldn't be investing in the business.
> Honest and able management are part of good investing and if you think otherwise don't get involve.
> 
> they are not there to please people or to time certain event or to manage share price....all that stuff is just "what if" and speculation..maybe they don't need the cash at 18c or has no sale data to ramp up production or whatever the reason maybe.
> ...




I no longer hold AHZ or am taking up the offer for those reason above.
 I suppose you never question Management yourself and have got out of a company for similar reasons as above?

watch from 4:20 minute and see how a CEO should comments and manage share price and look at their performance..
????


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## galumay (31 May 2014)

jancha said:


> Why wouldn't AHZ announce how the Cardiocel sales are going before the 3rd to ensure the share offer has been taken up? Why pay 10c when it may go down further.




because I am confident that i wont get them cheaper than 10c.


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## DeepState (31 May 2014)

jancha said:


> I cant help but to wonder if institutes get a sniff of what's going on before the retail buyers read the announcement.




They do.


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## ROE (2 June 2014)

I commit to funding these guys so I hand them another 15K for it..
I know I can get a bit cheaper on market a while ago but that not helping their cause


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## ROE (6 June 2014)

SPP over subscribe and scale back, very good support despite it trades below SPP when it was first announcement and investors are under deterred.

I assume a lot of retail investors in this company are not short term and willing to back it when it required funding, this is not just once but previous SSP as well ...all well supported.
Credit to management from running a tight ship and keep investors very well informed

I wont get my 15K but there are plenty more time for me to keep funding it until it becomes a successful Aussie home grown biotech


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## ROE (11 June 2014)

I got my full allocation thank you


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## VSntchr (11 June 2014)

ROE said:


> I got my full allocation thank you




It seems that most people have recieved their full allocation, which leads me to ask: Who did they scale back?!


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## ROE (11 June 2014)

VSntchr said:


> It seems that most people have recieved their full allocation, which leads me to ask: Who did they scale back?!




the one who has not been on the register for long 
They reward the true believer only


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## galumay (11 June 2014)

Yep, got my full allocation too.


----------



## gambloring (16 June 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Ok this dipped below 10c.
> 
> Now I'm worried




Still worried? 
http://i.imgur.com/xvZFrub.jpg


----------



## ROE (16 June 2014)

gambloring said:


> Still worried?
> http://i.imgur.com/xvZFrub.jpg




I said earlier Biotech is a very very long term game.
If the company are meeting mile stone and achieved what it set out to do which AHZ has up to this point
and hopefully it continue to do so, you shouldn't be fearful.


----------



## Tyler Durden (16 June 2014)

gambloring said:


> Still worried?
> http://i.imgur.com/xvZFrub.jpg




Ha, not _as_ worried 

I am very surprised it has recovered this quickly, on no news at all.


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## gambloring (17 June 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Ha, not _as_ worried
> 
> I am very surprised it has recovered this quickly, on no news at all.




Strong investor support is the only news that came out
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...-spp-after-strong-investor-support-55489.html

It was probably that.


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## Purple XS2 (12 August 2014)

After a quiet 2014, a cap-raising 3 months ago, some interest may be returning to Admedus...




Volume still very low. Admedus is due to officially open their new manufacturing facility in Perth, later this week. Recent activity could foreshadow greater awareness out there in investor land.

I disclose buckets of AHZ.


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## galumay (12 August 2014)

Purple XS2 said:


> After a quiet 2014, a cap-raising 3 months ago, some interest may be returning to Admedus...




I reckon current value is pretty well reflected in the price, it will take some news of real earnings or a further breakthrough with vaccine testing to change the market perception of value in AHZ. I also hold plenty.


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## ROE (13 August 2014)

galumay said:


> I reckon current value is pretty well reflected in the price, it will take some news of real earnings or a further breakthrough with vaccine testing to change the market perception of value in AHZ. I also hold plenty.




I still hold my only specs holding and I shall hold
For a long time because I believe this business
Sometimes in the future will be a big biotech

It has too many good things and a decent management
So I think the odd are in their favour.

I also do trade in and out but my core holding I never
Sell until such time it turns into a +ve cash  flow business
Then I decide what to do then..


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## ROE (13 August 2014)

http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMEUF/quote

that in US cents ... gaining US market attention

or google finance

https://www.google.com/finance?q=OTCMKTS:AMEUF&ei=pqHqU_CeL4iQkAWI3oC4Cg


----------



## ROE (15 August 2014)

Another milestone in the bag, the market starting to like it and WA
is on the map for the next export industry

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24720362/heart-patch-a-lifesaver/


----------



## jancha (15 August 2014)

ROE said:


> Another milestone in the bag, the market starting to like it and WA
> is on the map for the next export industry
> 
> https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24720362/heart-patch-a-lifesaver/




Old news but the market is improving. Figures on sales in the USA will determine where this will go.


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## Purple XS2 (1 November 2014)

Admedus have just released their quarterly. Nothing dramatic, just a steady increase in centres using their CardioCel product. Also increased their stake in Admedus vaccines to 2/3.

HSV vaccine about to enter Phase-II. While the vaccine line of Admedus will provide the drama, be it good or bad, it's the slow - too slow for some? -  growth in CardioCel uptake that provides the substance.

A happy and confident holder, I disclose buckets of AHZ. 

Regards,

P


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## VSntchr (1 November 2014)

Purple XS2 said:


> Admedus have just released their quarterly. Nothing dramatic, just a steady increase in centres using their CardioCel product. Also increased their stake in Admedus vaccines to 2/3.
> 
> HSV vaccine about to enter Phase-II. While the vaccine line of Admedus will provide the drama, be it good or bad, it's the slow - too slow for some? -  growth in CardioCel uptake that provides the substance.
> 
> ...




I could write plenty about this quarterly and the validation it has created in my mind of my thought process towards the future for this company but I'll keep it simple.
The *cost of growth* (which anyone promoting valuations over 20c has IMO failed to account for) is starting to show big time. 
The cash burn has increased dramatically and now Admedus is in the position of not only 'hoping' for a rapid uptake of cardiocel but requiring it. The vaccine division is also adding to the cash drain and increasing the pressure on cardiocel to generate revenue.

Without quick and substantial sales of cardiocel, admedus will be rattling the tin yet again..
The growth that is expected of cardiocel may be achieved, although I suspect over a longer time frame, and at a much larger cost than share prices of 20c+ imply.

Of course there are a number of scenarios that could play out for Admedus. The number of centres who have used cardiocel has once again increased: will these centres be re-ordering? Will they be using cardiocel as their primary patch? Perhaps a majority of these centres have only applied for a "test" order and big subsequent orders are right around the corner?
Another positive scenario would, IMO, be to get an early partnering deal going for the vaccine. It is draining cash at a time that the company simply cannot afford it.


----------



## reasonwxd (5 November 2014)

Hi all,
what happened today? fall to 0.105c!! -20%!!


----------



## herzy (5 November 2014)

reasonwxd said:


> Hi all,
> what happened today? fall to 0.105c!! -20%!!




Someone read VSntchr's post?


----------



## Assasin (24 November 2014)

A very unexpected but positive announcement today attached to the appropriate SP rise.

Concerns over capital and cash burn are justified but I'd jump at the chance of a CR at the moment at these levels and bugger the dilution.

The potential here is amazing for those with a very long term view. But then, how many times have we heard that before?

Good luck all, I'm accumulating. 

Cheers.


----------



## Purple XS2 (8 January 2015)

Having failed to foresee some of the CR's over the last 3 years or so, I decided a couple of months ago that there was another one coming, so I sold down some 30% of my holdings, (using some of the $ released to trade Benitec / BLT, with mixed results).

So far, I've been proven wrong: no CR late 2014. SP has picked up a little lately from a low dip to $0.105, up to $0.13+.

In spite of the evidence of my eyes, I retain the view that the company's fundamentals justify a SP over 20c, and therefore that the perceived possibility of a CR / placement is what's holding buyers back.

Still holding a bucket, though.


----------



## galumay (16 March 2015)

Mmmm....trading suspended pending an announcement. Wonder what is coming?

EDIT - ok, read *2nd* page! its another bloody capital raising.


----------



## ROE (16 March 2015)

galumay said:


> Mmmm....trading suspended pending an announcement. Wonder what is coming?
> 
> EDIT - ok, read *2nd* page! its another bloody capital raising.




We dont the details yet but I will take it up, I don't think it is for CardioCel, it could be funding Coridon and take further up the ownership structure or maybe take them out outright.

if vaccine trial is proved to be reasonable successful in the next few years and we own 100% of Coridon it would be a sweat spot to be in.


----------



## galumay (16 March 2015)

ROE said:


> We dont the details yet but I will take it up,




Same here, will be interesting to see the details on Wednesday.


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## craft (16 March 2015)

ROE said:


> We dont the details yet but I will take it up,






galumay said:


> Same here, will be interesting to see the details on Wednesday.




If you have already made your mind up - why would you be interested in the details?

Just joking (_sort of_)


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## ROE (16 March 2015)

craft said:


> If you have already made your mind up - why would you be interested in the details?
> 
> Just joking (_sort of_)




Because some people whinging it another capital raising without knowing the details
I already made up my mind long ago I back this company all the way , I am not too worry
it more of a funding research + investment decision


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## jancha (17 March 2015)

ROE said:


> Because some people whinging it another capital raising without knowing the details
> I already made up my mind long ago I back this company all the way , I am not too worry
> it more of a funding research + investment decision




Wouldn't you be better off investing in a company that's going foward, if and when AHZ starts to actually make a profit with their sales reinvest? You may have much more to give.

 This has been going backwards for years.

 AHZ said in their latest announcement that the next quarter will have the best sales figures to date.
Mmmm... so why didn't they do the C/R next quarter when the sales figures and the sp should be up??


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## galumay (17 March 2015)

jancha said:


> Wouldn't you be better off investing in a company that's going foward, if and when AHZ starts to actually make a profit with their sales reinvest? You may have much more to give.




AHZ is not an investment, its a speculative play. That said its a very attractive speccy, with massive upside - the cardiocel product will make it a profitable company, the potential of the vaccines is where the real cream lies. 

I am happy to accumulate now and hope the upside is realised. If they do become an investement grade opportunity then I would look at allocating investment capital to them, at the moment they get the play money!



> This has been going backwards for years.




Its gone from a couple of cents to 10c in the last few years, its one of the best performing companies I own - and it doesnt even pay a dividend yet.



> AHZ said in their latest announcement that the next quarter will have the best sales figures to date.
> Mmmm... so why didn't they do the C/R next quarter when the sales figures and the sp should be up??




Thats exactly why we are interested to see the details, the CR was clearly flagged, but the fact its come so soon suggests it is more than just raising operating capital.


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## ROE (17 March 2015)

jancha said:


> Wouldn't you be better off investing in a company that's going foward, if and when AHZ starts to actually make a profit with their sales reinvest? You may have much more to give.
> 
> This has been going backwards for years.
> 
> ...




I have never loss money with AHZ actually I make close to 70K in capital gain from buying in CR and sell
and core holding and trade in and out, I still have core holding of around 400,000 shares free carry trade.

Buy and Hold business for dividend can be boring sometimes so I have another play book that bring a bit of excitement to my style, that involve various strategy which I can employ on any given day depending on 
what is in play for that day  sometimes there is nothing in play for weeks or months but sometimes 100K can be deployed in a day or two.

some of my play wont pay off and I know that but to date the gain far far out gun the loss in multiple fold so I ain't given up on that style.


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## jancha (18 March 2015)

I dont know how it can be your best investment when they keep diluting needing more capitol every year.
You must have some terrible investments. Sub 8c due to the raising at 7c.
A glimmer of hope though in that last time they had a C/R it went from 8c to 18c after.


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## ROE (18 March 2015)

you are backing a start up, until they generate a profit from their products, there is a risk you may lose money
but the upside will be many fold original investment, it all about how you spread your capital and how you
manage risk.

these are not really good investment if you starting out, it more for people who has lot of capital where they can bet on a few high risk play for better pay day down the road


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## galumay (18 March 2015)

jancha said:


> I dont know how it can be your best investment when they keep diluting needing more capitol every year.




Like ROE said, he has made very large capital gains from AHZ, in my case I bought in cheap, have added more along the way, the dilution doesnt change the fact that they are worth a hell of a lot more than i paid for them!

Its pretty simple maths really.

Why are you so negative emotionally about the company? Are you a shareholder? Did you pay too much? I dont quite understand where the stregth of feeling is coming from.


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## ROE (18 March 2015)

The best thing to do is not getting all upset and emotional about it, you need to do thing objectively.
you need to work out exactly what you want to do with your investment and act on them accordingly.

Investing can be lonely and depressing when things dont go your way and again you need to keep your ego in check when the bull rage ahead,  you need strong  principles to stand behind your investment.

for me losing a investment here and there doesn't affect me emotionally or financially, I can take a few hit and has no issue, I considered it as part of the risk doing business... 

Not much different from you having a fruit shop and some fruits go rotten and you cant sell and lose money or your business got robbed or some kids smashing a windows and need repair etc..

if you no longer like the business for whatever reason and you lose your passion, you should exit as no point keeping things that you hate losing money everyday or looking at it.


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## jancha (18 March 2015)

I only have a small interest in them with just under 10k worth. I sold the lot at 8.2c this morning and bought back at 8c. Small difference of $200 minus brokers fees. 
I have held over 600,000 @ 12c years back but sold on the basis of it going sideways and money better invested elsewhere.
Re entered when it dropped below 10c before the C/R was announced.
As I said I only have a small interest in the stock but it's one of those stocks if I lose I think of it as a donate to a worthy cause.


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## rryall (23 November 2015)

Is anyone still following this stock? A little confused as to why company ticker has changed and ratio of shares has changed also. Would appreciate any update from the more experienced posters.


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## rryall (27 November 2015)

AHZ back trading today after consolidation etc. Hopefully now stock price is more appealing to Insto's than day traders. Look forward to end of year announcements but wont be accumulating more until more information available. Anyone else following this stock at present?


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## galumay (28 November 2015)

rryall said:


> Anyone else following this stock at present?




I hold quite a lot of AHZ, I have accumulated more over the years that I would normally allocate to a speculative company making no profit, but the potential is extraordinary and I believe the patient investor may be greatly rewarded. The consolidation was definitely required, too many shares on issue and as you say a price that kept the instros out.


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## Purple XS2 (2 March 2016)

Today's close, a rather sad & sorry 0.415. Admedus dumped after a lacklustre Half-yearly. A clean out of some long-standing board members recently hasn't inspired confidence.

My expectation is that there's yet another of their capital-raising exercises coming up, so I've cleared out, and watching from the sidelines.

But for the eternal optimist, there's the interim results for the herpes-simplex virus - HSV in Admedus-speak - due in coming weeks, sometime this quarter.

For the time being, the pessimist in me is telling the optimist to sit tight. I remain of the view this stock has a bright future, but I'm hedging as to when & how much I get back in.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (2 March 2016)

i have bought some more at current lows, I still think they will be a massive success. They have suffered from the poor perception of bio-meds internationally but they have great products even without a success with the vaccine. It takes time and lots of money to build a successful company in this sector and I think the market is impatient to see profit.


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## galumay (4 March 2016)

Watch AHZ go now!

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01719296


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## ROE (18 October 2016)

Quiet here with FDA approval - I am a still believer in ahz


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## galumay (18 October 2016)

ROE said:


> Quiet here with FDA approval - I am a still believer in ahz




Me too, added more yesterday to my SMSF & personal portfolio at 46c.


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## galumay (2 May 2017)

The ball is really starting to roll now, FDA Clearance for CardioCel 3D and the HSV-2 PHASE IIa RESULTS WEBINAR coming up on Thursday.
SP up strongly over the last couple of days.


----------



## VSntchr (2 May 2017)

galumay said:


> The ball is really starting to roll now, FDA Clearance for CardioCel 3D and the HSV-2 PHASE IIa RESULTS WEBINAR coming up on Thursday.
> SP up strongly over the last couple of days.



Some good catalysts, yes.
I thought the recent cardiocel growth was very lacklustre though. 
For a segment that was hyped to be such a massive growth engine, the velocity of growth has really slowed down now.


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## Purple XS2 (14 March 2018)

Admedus SP has seen some growth in recent days. After a period of imposing discipline on their financial burn - which over the years was always profligate - perhaps investors are starting to warm to their prospects.
A bit of PR, outside the ASX announcement stream: 
(my apologies to readers not in the fb world - although I believe the link is to a public page)
Revenue growth is mild, announcements of expanding entry into various world markets is ... OK ? I guess? We're still to see anything dramatic in revenue.





No news on the vaccine side of things, that sideshow may be in for a quiet death.

But I've resisted the temptation to sell any & take profit. After having been in & out of this stock for several years, I've seen it all. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (14 March 2018)

The narrative is starting to align with reality, as you say the discipline brought by Wayne Patterson has meant the massive potential now has an opportunity to be realised. It was always a long term play, the market wont really get interested until its cash flow positive and growth is sustained. I think its tangible now, the growth may be quite fast once it gets a roll on. Continuing to hold both personally and in my SMSF


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## Purple XS2 (25 April 2018)

I'm back on the bandwagon.
Admedus has been spruiking itself with more enthusiasm than usual, which is not to say that's a good thing or a bad thing, but for those interested: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180419/pdf/43tb9hp89yn3bw.pdf

In my opinion the real crunch question is this: will Admedus become self-funding in the near term, ie be able to run on a more-or-less break-even basis, without the need to dilute in some form of capital raise?

So the next few months will be telling. I sense a mood out there in investor land that the turn-around from spekkie to established biotech is on. Me and my big white rabbit think so.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (26 April 2018)

I think its on track Purple XS2, the quarterlys are showing that Patterson has delivered with his forecast of cash flow positive by the end of the year. I am fairly confident there will be no need for a final CR, the fact that they were able to raise finance suggests they have now matured beyond the need for CR's.

AHZ has been my high conviction speccy, I have held for quite  few years and steadily built my position, I think the market is starting to share some of the conviction.


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## galumay (27 April 2018)

Recent price action may well be explained by today's announcement of the potential sale of a share of the vaccines segment to raise working capital for further vaccine development. Realistically it was always going to need another player with deep pockets to take this to the endpoint so its good news for shareholders, even though there will be dilution of our ownership of the vaccine division. AHZ was up by 7% by close of market.


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## Purple XS2 (2 May 2018)

not that I believe stock-market analysts: 
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...-strong-revenue-growth-from-adapt-196209.html

Does anyone have an opinion on proactive's record/credibility?

Closed today at 0.365. Been a bit jumpy last few trading days. Reached 0.40 briefly.
My concern remains their cash flow: will they plough on without a cap-raise, or not?

I hold. Quite a few.

Regards,
P


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## Country Lad (2 May 2018)

I have this as a breakout candidate and may just enter if the momentum improves and it closes at 38 or higher.


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## galumay (2 May 2018)

Purple XS2 said:


> My concern remains their cash flow: will they plough on without a cap-raise, or not?




Shouldnt be a problem, given the numbers in the last 4C. Dont forget there is still $5m funding undrawn as well. I think the CR's are behind AHZ now. I hold plenty too, its my one really high conviction speccy, so I am probably biased but I think the next 12 months will be hugely positive for this business.


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## Purple XS2 (9 May 2018)

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180508/pdf/43tvsw4j8lj0zf.pdf
an announcement in relation to a capital raising. Oh well; there goes that theory.
Details expected today (Thurs 10th).

As noted by @galumay above, there wasn't necessarily an imperative need for a CR just now, although Admedus probably concluded a line-of-credit from a lender wasn't sturdy enough or big enough for comfort. Or that they see stand-alone profitability as being further off into the future than optimistic shareholders would like to think.

Last close pre-Announcement was 0.36c. Average for the last 4 weeks' trading probably about 0.33 - 0.34c ? So my guess would be a CR, with opt-in for holders,  priced at about 0.30c?

Sooner or later CR fatigue will weigh heavily on shareholders. I'm getting that here-we-go-again feeling.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (9 May 2018)

I was totally wrong. (not for the first time.) This is pretty dire IMO, every year for the 5 years I have been a shareholder AHZ has put their hand in shareholders pockets, this year they also raised debt for the first time so its a double wammy. Also Wayne Paterson had told shareholders there would be no more CR's - and months later here we are.

Interestingly within 6 months of every previous CR, you could have bought the shares cheaper on market, so I will wont be adding to the executive coffers this time round. For the first time I am doubting the narrative around AHZ.


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## Purple XS2 (10 June 2018)

galumay said:


> ...
> Interestingly within 6 months of every previous CR, you could have bought the shares cheaper on market



So true: CR was issued at 0.30: shares since resumption of trading have been gettable as low as 0.25. Last close 0.255.


galumay said:


> so I will wont be adding to the executive coffers this time round. For the first time I am doubting the narrative around AHZ.



Neither did I - not so much from insight, but primarily no available funds.
I still hold.
So now I await the next quarterly report on revenue. With hope, & fingers crossed.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (11 June 2018)

@Purple XS2 This is even worse than it looks, turns out they were in negotiations about a supply contract at the time of the CR, so AHZ knew there was at least a reasonable chance of negotiations failing and a resutling impact on earnings. In hindsight the optics are terrible, shareholders that participated in the CR would be rightly furious with the course of events and subsequent crash in the SP.

I have had some discussion with Wayne Paterson on Twitter about the timing of the CR and the subsequent negative announcement, he was obviously pretty defensive about the events of the last few months. I suspect its a classic case of management not having skin in the game and being poorly incentivised.


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## greggles (31 July 2018)

AHZ dumped this morning after the release of their quarterly results.

Quarterly operating loss of around $6 million. ADAPT sales were a big miss. Forecast of $4.2-$4.3 million vs. actual of $2.7 million. Estimated cash outflows for next quarter of $12.57 million.

Those who subscribed for shares at 30c in May must be pissed off. Surely management must have had some idea of where this was all going by that stage? I bet some lawyers are getting phone calls this morning.

Admedus currently down 27.66% to 17c.


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## galumay (31 July 2018)

Yes, the capital mangaement by Wayne Paterson has been detrimental to the business and shareholders. His habit of over promising and under delivering has led to a savage reaction from the market. I doubt AHZ can survive without putting their hands in the shareholder's pockets again - which wont go down well! I think they knew quite a bit about various bad news before rushing that last CR through, it was very suspicious to say the least. I contacted WP about it at the time and he was shifty as a fox in a chook run.


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## Purple XS2 (31 July 2018)

I suppose the good news is that this crunch came on the last day of the month: so I get to nominate AHZ as my tip for August, on the theory that while growth didn't live up to the hype, there was revenue growth - but still a long way from profitability.
The ASX link to the quarterly, for the curious:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180731/pdf/43wxc3c65c0879.pdf


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## galumay (31 July 2018)

Purple XS2 said:


> on the theory that while growth didn't live up to the hype, there was revenue growth - but still a long way from profitability.




I think the problem is that they will run out of cash, they now have debt as well, and no real hope of raising capital as no one is going to put more money in now. It looks in very poor shape to me.


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## Purple XS2 (2 August 2018)

And today's excitement is a trading halt for a capital-raise. Further details to emerge by Monday's trading.
How the h*** that's going to pan out is anyone's guess. As posed above by #galumay, who's going to put their $ in now?


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## galumay (2 August 2018)

Yep, when I looked into it in more detail I think they could just get through the next quarter, but given the December Q is usually softer, they would be out of cash by end of year. Thats assuming they can maintain a 30% growth in revenue, otherwise its even worse.

They do have an undrawn facility of $5m but I suspect they are already in breach of covenant with the first tranche of debt, also $5m.

The only way a CR would work is if the directors and management stumped up some of their bloated salary for shares, no one else will touch it with a bargepole. 

A sobering lesson in the dangers of management with no skin in the game and bad incentives.


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## Purple XS2 (30 August 2018)

After the extension to the extension to the extension of the trading halt ...
Let me see now:
Trading halt 1st declared 2nd August.
Extended on the 6th August, till 8th.
Extended on the 8th, till 13th.
Extended on the 13th, till 20th.
Extended on the 20th, till 3rd Sept (next Monday).
Make that the extension to the extension to the extension to the extension of the trading halt.

I think this qualifies as grim.


Oh well, it's only money.


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## galumay (30 August 2018)

Purple XS2 said:


> I think this qualifies as grim.




I concur with your analysis!


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## Purple XS2 (4 September 2018)

Extended on the 3rd Sept, to date unspecified.
Some dilution with shares issued to institutional investor ("Bright Star", who I believe also recently acquired a substantial interest in Admedus's vaccine R&D wing).

More capital raising measures to be announced, date unspecified. Suspension continues in the interim.

So ... make that the extension (duration unspecified) to the extension to the extension to the extension to the extension of the trading halt.

At least now we have a fig-leaf of hope that Admedus will avoid liquidation.
I imagine there'll be a bolt for the exits once (if...?) trade resumes.
Though where the dust settles thereafter...?

Rgrdz,
P


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## galumay (5 September 2018)

Yes @Purple XS2, its basically a chinese business gaining control of AHZ, another Aussie company lost to our shores. This time its due to incompetence and mismanagement at best and possibly worse.

Shareholders will end up with something, but a consolidation and re-rating will mean its very little.

When I directly questioned CEO Wayne Peterson on Twitter, making the obseervation that the circumstances and timing around the last CR left little doubt it was either a case of management incompetence and unprofessionalism, or something more sinister. His response was not to offer some other explanation, but rather to block me on Twitter. That was the moment I should have sold out, very clear management values were not aligned with the business.


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## Purple XS2 (2 April 2019)

I'm still here, actually hold only some AHZO oppies (Dec 2021, 0.08c strike).
Chart getting active last couple of days, for no discernable reason:

(1st chart is last 12 month, the flat slippery-slide was the extended halt before another disasterous dilution)
(2nd chart is the last 3 months)
today's close 0.055, on volume of 4 mill units.
Looks a lot better than sub 0.03, but this may vanish like the morning dew.


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## galumay (2 April 2019)

Not a student of squiggly lines, but the last few days volatility makes me think there is an announcement coming and there is a bit of insider action. The other possibility is the traders at HC that ramp and dump these sort of companies may be trying to create some action.


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## Purple XS2 (14 October 2019)

Whew. Anothr 6 months or whatever it was, suspended. Resumed trading today, announcing a deal with a US distributor LeMaitre Vascular (of whom heard I have of not):
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191014/pdf/449gd18nq2915h.pdf

So, AHZ's little sparrow heart still beats. Better news than I was expecting ("we downed the last bikkie and squeezed the last tea-bag from the staff kitchen folks, time for us to Voluntary Administer...")
It wasn't that.

Mr Market's frown lifted a little, but it was a boost not a Godsend.
Closed at 0.069, having been frozen for months: last trade back then was 0.060.

regards,
P


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## galumay (14 October 2019)

Yeah well, I agree, better news than expected. I really thought Wayne Paterson had destroyed the business. 

Its a glimmer of hope, with their salaries they will still burn through all the cash in under 12 months, so it may just have delayed the inevitable. Probably the best hope is LeMaitre Vascular make an offer to shareholders to mop up the business.


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## rcm617 (31 October 2019)

My pick for the comp. Am hoping for a bit of a bounce next month after the long suspension from trading, after those who want to sell get out. Great science but very poor overpaid management. 4c has shown a bit of improvement on the cost front, but biggest hope for this is a takeover.


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## galumay (31 October 2019)

rcm617 said:


> My pick for the comp. Am hoping for a bit of a bounce next month after the long suspension from trading, after those who want to sell get out. Great science but very poor overpaid management. 4c has shown a bit of improvement on the cost front, but biggest hope for this is a takeover.




Yep, in particular Wayne Paterson has destroyed this business, while filling his pockets with every bit of cash he could squeeze out of it.


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## rcm617 (19 November 2019)

Looks like the selling has finished and buyers are in charge. Just need a bit of good news now to really get it going.


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## Purple XS2 (19 November 2019)

rcm617 said:


> Looks like the selling has finished and buyers are in charge. Just need a bit of good news now to really get it going.



Indeed.
Would be interesting to know who's buying.
Might just be a flash in the pan, or might be some peeps have reason to believe.

I actually don't hold any AHZ per se, it's all in oppies: AHZO (strike $0.08c Dec 2021)

So the next news when- / what- ever, will be interesting.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (19 November 2019)

I reckon its just a flash in the pan, maybe some pumping from HC? 

Wayne Paterson has bled this baby dry.


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## Purple XS2 (2 January 2020)

Since posting last November, the rise into the 0.08 - 0.09 range has held, and today closed at $0.12.

Well whoopee.

Looking at todays trades ( a million shares, about $110k worth), I did notice that the bigger chunks, of $5k plus were into the buy stack, with smaller transactions coming from the sellers.
Now, these small volumes don't mean any serious buyers are moving in, but it does seem that larger little fish are buying off the smaller little fish.







A few more months of today's action and I'll start feeling cheerful.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (3 January 2020)

Purple XS2 said:


> A few more months of today's action and I'll start feeling cheerful.




I would need a couple of years of that action - and the departure of Crooked Wayne Paterson, before I approached anything like cheerful!


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## tinhat (3 January 2020)

@galumay, this is not the USA and you are not POTUS. Be careful what you write.


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## galumay (4 January 2020)

LOL! I didn't pick that up until you mentioned it. Perhaps 'corrupt' is less presidential?


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## Purple XS2 (6 April 2020)

In a time where surgeons and medical resources of all calibres are dedicated to COVID-19, the Belgian surgeon Bart Meuris has pulled off the impressive feat of implanting Admedus' first in-human 3-D aortic valve:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200327/pdf/44gg2g8svv3s10.pdf
(27th March), the patient concerned at last report was out of hospital (6th April).
So, big news!
if there are more surgeons (and patients!) willing to give it a go, and their confidence is validated, this could be the start of bigness.
'could'

Fingers crossed.

Regards,
P
(holding AHZO oppies. Last AHZ closing price $6.41 - this of course being post 100-to-1 consolidation, so the equivalent of $0.064c as compared to previous SP quoted in this thread)


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## galumay (6 April 2020)

There was an earlier 10-1 consolidation, so the pain is worse for dummies like me that fell for the narrative in the early days, when Forrest was pumping it.


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## galumay (8 April 2020)

Just checked, 10-1 in late 2015, now 100 -1 last month, 1000-1 destruction of shareholder value by CEO Wayne Paterson! My most expensive parcel was $100 per share and my average is about $46 per share - a long way to go before I am in the black!!

EDIT - TBF I think the 2015 consolidation mught have been before WP started wrecking the business!


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## System (22 May 2020)

On May 22nd, 2020, Admedus Limited (AHZ) changed its name and ASX code to Anteris Technologies Limited (AVR).


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## Purple XS2 (22 August 2020)

You say Anteris, I say Admedus: let's call the whole thing off ...
You say Allied, I say BioMD, lets call the whole thing off ...(with apologies to Cole Porter).

So, to entertain the weary shareholders, Admedus rebranded itself (again), and its ASX code, this time from Admedus / AHZ to Anteris Technologies / AVR.

Market underwhelmed from June through July, however ...





... from dipping under $3.00, the AVR share price, on very low volumes, has been making baby steps towards some sort of value. (last vertical bar on the RHS is 16,000 shares sold. The 2 high points in the period each 40,000 odd).
Friday 20th close at $4.20.

With a restructuring of the company, I admit it's beyond my forensics to decipher the financial statements, half yearly report ending June 2020 may be enlightening to some ...
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200820/pdf/44lq90nlmp0lrc.pdf

... although I gather Anteris has a couple more quarters in it, without the _*necessity*_ of yet another cap-raise. But we still have the same board and CEO - they are not known for leaving their cap-raises to last quarter of viability.
Put it this way, if Anteris can pull a rabbit out of the hat - and their heart-valve implant project seems to be progressing, then the shareholders will be the first to hear the happy cry: _Cap-raise!_

I hold AVR (heads), warily and opportunistically.
I hold AVRO options, bottom draw (exp Dec 2021, strike $8.00).

Regards,
P


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## galumay (22 August 2020)

Yup, its a weary journey @Purple XS2. I finally gave up on this dud in my SMSF, I still hold in my personal portfolio. I will probably keep them as a reminder of the hazards of bio techs and the folly of averaging down into rubbish companies with dodgy management. Wayne Paterson's destruction of value, while filling his own pockets is a salient lesson in the dangers these type of managers hold for retail investors.


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 August 2020)

Purple XS2 said:


> With a restructuring of the company, I admit it's beyond my forensics to decipher the financial statements, half yearly report ending June 2020 may be enlightening to some ...
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200820/pdf/44lq90nlmp0lrc.pdf
> 
> ... although I gather Anteris has a couple more quarters in it, without the _*necessity*_ of yet another cap-raise.
> P



Looking at the results, the auditor and board comments, this outfit has 18 mo. max left before it is totally out of cash without a significant injection or raise of capital. 

gg


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## Purple XS2 (30 November 2020)

Anteris continues to promote its surgical product in international symposia, and - going by the company's publicity - it's all making a good impression.
But share proce languishes. $3.75 at last close, end November 2020.
No cap raise in recent times, but cash remains low.





So, will there ever be a rabbit out of a hat?
(Sigh). My bottom-drawer oppies and I ($8.00 strike, Dec 2021) can only wish.


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## Dona Ferentes (30 December 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Looking at the results, the auditor and board comments, this outfit has 18 mo. max left before it is totally out of cash without a significant injection or raise of capital.



For this "_structural heart company delivering clinically superior solutions that help healthcare professionals create life-changing outcomes for patients, [with its] focus .. on investing in and developing next generation technologies with world class partners and acquiring strategic assets to grow product and service offerings", _would a mill help?

*Highlights *
_• $1.1M raised in a placement to sophisticated investors at $3.37 per share – 10% discount to the last closing share price 
• Provides working capital as Anteris continues to demonstrate superior performance of the DurAVR™, 3D single-piece, aortic valve






DNH, WSI?_


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## Country Lad (2 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> For this "_structural heart company delivering *clinically superior* solutions that help healthcare professionals *create life-changing* *outcomes* for patients, [with its] focus .. on investing in and developing *next generation technologies *with *world class partners* and *a**cquiring strategic assets *to grow product and service offerings", _would a mill help?
> 
> *Highlights *
> _• $1.1M raised in a placement to sophisticated investors at $3.37 per share – 10% discount to the last closing share price
> ...




The $mil might help to pay the script writers.  The cynic in me puts anything with this much spin in the don't bother draw.


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## galumay (3 January 2021)

I am with you @Country Lad, I should add up all the cap raisings and see how much they have stolen from shareholders over the years, personally it was 10's of 1000's of $'s. Wayne Paterson perfected the transfer of SH wealth to his own pockets - i remember when he was appointed and so many saw him as the saviour of the business, what a joke that turned out to be. 

Its always tough to pick fledgling bio-techs, most burn out before they can get to market and prosper. AVR's niche was being able to survive so long by picking the pockets of SH's for so long and then not wasting it on R&D or marketing etc, but rather just burning the cash in wildly excessive management salaries, while constantly pumping the hyped narrative.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 January 2021)

ring that bell (for getting it arse about)



> AVR has entered into a short-term facility for the advance of $1,220,000 that provides the Company with immediate funds equivalent to its forecasted research & development (R&D) tax incentive offset for the majority of the 2020 calendar year.
> • The advance is equivalent to the expected R&D claim for the 10 months ended 31 October 2020
> • Interest rate of 1.15% per month for the period of the facility
> • The advance may be repaid by the Company at any time with a minimum three-month effective interest term
> • Facility approval fee of 0.75%, being $9,150


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## Purple XS2 (26 January 2021)

Another chapter of the long-running saga of how Anteris funds itself without anything substantial in the revenue stream:
Funding Package 6th Jan 2021
Essentially a drawdown facility which offers a slow dilution, instead of the usual instant dilution of previous share issues.
The investor being *Mercer Street Global Opportunity Fund*. I don't know anything about them, but a quick search indicates they have their fingers in a number of pies in the Aussie biotech space.

So hopefully Merce knows what they're doing.

From here? More of the same, sitting and waiting and hoping for a happy day?

Reassurance of funding pushed the SP above $5.00. Last close $5.12


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## galumay (26 January 2021)

A bit more cash to line the pockets of CEO Paterson and his lackeys. My big mistake was buying shares all those years ago, should have got on the board. I would be a millionaire!!


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## Purple XS2 (24 February 2021)

Well, stick a chook on my head and call me a wind-vane: AVR has gone for a trot above $6.60:






No, I have no particular reason to explain. Anteris has been presenting at some surgical formums here and ther, but that is nothing unusual, not to my untrained eye.

Be interesting to see if momentum builds, or if this is just a flash-in-the-pan day.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (27 February 2021)

Anteris' financial position, in their own words:

(I quote from their recent announcement...Preliminary Financial Report 2021-02-18)

_*FINANCIAL SUMMARY:
•Total  revenue  for  year  ended  31  December  2020  of  $7.1M,  largely  generated  from manufacturing of the CardioCel® and VascuCel® patches under the LeMaitre Vascular Inc.agreement.
•The Company recognised other income totalling $4.8M, which included $2.2M in licence income relating to contractual obligations from 4C Medical Technologies Inc. associated with the validation of the transfer of the sterilisation method for use with Anteris’ ADAPT®tissue.  Other  income  for  2020  also  included  $2.3M  in  government  grants  related  to research and development activities.
•Selling,  general  and  administrative  expenses  (SG&A)  of  $22.1M,  significantly  reduced compared  to  2019  ($34.5M)  reflecting  lower  employee  costs  and  reduced  travel  and conference costs.
•Net loss after tax $15.3M, reflecting the primary focus on development of the DurAVR™ valve.
•Net cash outflow of $4.6M for the year. Year-end cash balance at 31 December 2020 was $4.4M.
•$1.1M raised via a private placement to sophisticated investors, a $1.2m short term facility secured against the Research & Development Refund for 2020 and subsequent to the year end  secured  a  funding  package  of  up  to  $20M  with  New  York  investment  fund  Mercer Street Global Opportunity Fund, LLC*_

What that tells the reader about their future prospects, I confess in my case is very little, except that there appears to be a reduced prospect of an imminet capital raising (in light of last paragraph above).

Last few days has seen some widely diverging intra-day high-low marks:




which suggests to my simple mind that there are some people keen to acquire whilst others are keen to dump while the sun shines. Put it this way: it's my tip for the March ASF tip. It is my prognostication, as flawed as it is humble, the recent volatility portends a happy time for holders.

The one to watch, should any serious money turn up, is the *AVRO* options, strike $8.00, exp 18 December 2021.
(AVRO last traded at $1.45).
There's a lot of AVROs out there - 2.3 million (compared to I think it 6 million AVR heads).

I disclose AVRO.
I also disclose having flipped my AVR heads for a quick profit. Looking to re-enter.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (6 March 2021)

There's been some commentary about Anteris CEO Wayne Paterson on this forum, some of it entirely justifiable .

So, while this is 10 weeks old (Mid novemeber 2020), it may add to the picture to hear from the man himself.
Presentation to investors 2020-11-16

Quite persuasive, I must say. Time will tell.

Regards,
P

For the benefit of posterity, AVR closed Friday just gone at $9.40. (AVRO at $2.80). Volume however is pretty low.


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## galumay (6 March 2021)

When the share price gets to $100 I think I would be break even on this dog! Thanks to CEO Wayne Paterson there was enormous destruction of shareholder value - and much of that money was transferred straight into his wallet. He was always good at the pin & hype - shareholders like me saw him as a saviour for the business when he first arrived - if only we had known what lay in wait for us!

I reckon if you are careful you can probably do quite well with this as a short term trade, it gets some pretty hard ramping at times so there is definitely opportunity. You may have found the key in trading the oppies.


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## Purple XS2 (29 March 2021)

Exciting times for Anteris: closed today at a very satisfying $12.94, after a morning shakeout on what one would think was a good announcement of ongoing trial results:
anti-calcification study

Pardon if the link doesn't work for everyone - it's off the ASX announcement page, so retrievable from wherever you like to source your announcements from.

So, the heart-valve works on rats, and appears to be 'better' than established brands in this very limited product space.
(They must be using rat-heart-sized valves, one assumes.)

On the face of it, these results support the boosterism of the CEO (Wayne Paterson).

I do keep wondering why, if the product is as rosy as represented, that the Anteris SP doesn't boom along into the stratosphere?

Maybe it will sooner or later, or maybe it's another mirage in the annals of Aussie flakey biotechs.

But I'm pretty happy holding.

Regards,
P


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## galumay (29 March 2021)

Dont forget they have been trying to flog the viability of this business since the shares were effectively over $100 each. So much capital has been destroyed over the many years this business has been mismanaged. 

Hopefully by getting in at such a low price you are able to be one of the few to make money on this one @Purple XS2 !


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## Purple XS2 (30 June 2021)

*AVR* been on a downward slide since March. Currently SP about $7.00 - up and down a little around that mark..
Technical data on the heart valve continues to be encouraging, but as always, finance is the achilles heel.
Time is ticking on the *AVRO  *options - expire in December 2021, and are currently under water with a strike price of $8.00.

So, will Anteris pull a rabbit from hat? And if so, will it be before December?
Seems to me there's a consistent sell with the effect of keeping the SP below the AVRO strike price.
So I suppose the $64 dollar question is: will that trend (tactic?) continue? Or will the seller(s) eventually tire and let the SP go for another run?

The World Wonders .. well, some of us wonder at least.

Anything could happen I suppose, including nothing.


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## Purple XS2 (2 August 2021)

Annnnddd it's another itsy-bitsy cap-raise from Anteris.
asx announcement 2021-08-02 or from wherever you get your ASX announcements.

Raised $9 mil from Sophs, 1,125,000 shares issued at $8.00, and as many and a few more options. Existing retail shareholders not invited. Not that it would have attacted my interest: no dough.

Enough to keep Anteris afloat until the end of this year. And funding _*might*_ pick up after that point *if* AVRO options are in the money and are converted. ($8.00 strike, expires Dec 2021). 

No rabbits as yet. My holding is in options (no heads - I sold what few heads I had for cash-flow reasons otherwise known as 'girlfriends').

Nothing much to be retrieved at this point in time in selling any of my AVRO's, so I just sit.

On resumption of trading today, AVR's sank below $8.00 for a bit, recovered gradually to close at $8.28 (down from pre-trading halt / CR at $8.59 last week). Cup half-full as far as shareholder reaction goes. It's possible the share price will get a boost from having secured interim funding, but one can't help noticing the gap between company self-promotion ("what great prospects lie before us etc, etc") and market disinterest.

I shall continue to feign optimism.
Regards,
P


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## galumay (2 August 2021)

Well Wayne had to fill his pockets again, so off to market for another CR. 

I wonder has any ASX company raised so often, for so little outcome? (other than management salaries.)


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## Purple XS2 (16 August 2021)

Dust has settled after the last cap-raise. AVR rises to $9.20 ish.
A flash in the pan, or a new day dawning?





A modest increase in volume, but not quite a rush on the stalls.
If we see another week of increasing price and volume, the AVR heads might go places.
Meanwhile, in oppies-land, AVRO's also rise, but also on restrained volume. AVRO closed at $1.96 ish - so there's a bit of a premium being paid given that they're $8.00 strike, but their December 2021 expiry steadily looms closer.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (13 October 2021)

An interesting annoncement from Anteris today:
*ANTERIS ANNOUNCES PARTNERSHIP WITH LEADING RESERCH ORGANISATIONS 
FOR ITS DURAVR™ EARLY FEASIBILITY STUDY AND APPOINTMENT OF 
M&A ADVISER*
So there's 2 parts to this: an arrangement with a couple of biotech consultancies to guide Anteris through "its plan to conduct an FDA early feasibility study"
and
an engagement with "US investment bank Piper Sandler & Co. as its M&A adviser".

which I read as getting their forthcoming FDA applications in order, and soliciting offers from major players in the heart-valve space to make a bid for Anteris, or partnership.

*Maybe.*

Or maybe this is an attempt to rally the tired and jaded shareholders to hang in there - especially holders of the AVRO options ($8.00 strike, expire 18 Dec 2021), so as to stump up the conversion price by mid-December, which is rapidly approaching. There's about 2.4 million AVROs out there, and their conversion would add some much needed capital to the company coffers.

Conversely the failure of the oppies by mid-December would be a significant setback, presumably leading to more Cap-Raises, as the Pied Pipers of Anteris tweet their tune again ...

A bit of a glow to the SP today: *closed at $8.80*, having dipped breifly below $8.00 in recent days.

I disclose holding in AVRO (just oppies, no heads)
I disclose beng tired and jaded.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (20 October 2021)

18th December 2021 looming ever larger on the horizon.

Significance being that is the expiry date for the listed options AVRO - strike price $8.00.
Anteris has almost 2.4 million AVRO options on issue, and it is my assumption that the proceeds from the conversion of all / almost all of these oppies is a much desired thing from the management's point of view, with something like $19 mill at stake.

Current Market-Cap on todays SP (*$9.05*) is just over $70 mill.

Without that $-input, I can only imagine more Cap-Raises in the near future. All of which may motivate the management to put out more feel-good-about-the-future announcements like the ra-ra of 13th october (see my last posting).

So, will there in fact be more to come over the next few weeks, and will it work? The world wonders. Especially those among us who put their hopes in the oppies in preference to heads.

I disclose holding AVRO.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (22 November 2021)

Finally a bit of movement at the station:
Anteris has announced 5 patients treated with their trans-catheter insertion method, of the AVR heart valve:
Announcement 2021-11-22

Closed at an even $10.00, settling from an intra-day high of $10.90. (daily VWAP of $10.30)

Interesting to see if it will ride on from here? The patients were treated in Georgia - the country, not the US state. So it's still got some way to go to get the much-desired FDA approvals.
But it certainly does the job in providing grounds for optimism that the TAVR project is on track.
I allowed myself to get sufficiently excited, to convert some of my AVRO options - they've only got 4 weeks till expiry.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (20 January 2022)

*Anteris Technologies* has gone for a bit of a trot this New Year. It seems to me that holders and wannabees haven't decided on its value yet.
With a successful option conversion (AVROs) last month, and with "30-day" results expected any time now from a 5-patient DurAVR study in Georgia a couple of months ago, there's been a rosy glow in the shareholders cheeks.

Being a flakey biotech, said rosy glow could turn pale and wan very easily, or perhaps it could really take off?

Last close $17.80, gives a nominal market cap of about $200 MIllion..

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (9 February 2022)

Anteris CEO giving a talk to Proactive Investors
Possibly early rumblings of US corporate mergers, and/or NASDAQ listing.

Last close at $17.35

Veerrrry interesting ...


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## Purple XS2 (19 February 2022)

My goodness, how things have progressed in the last 3 months ...






Last close $23.26.
Anteris has 5 1/2 million convertible notes due this year - mainly in August but some in May, and 1/2 million unlisted options maturing next month at $10 strike. So there's further incoming $ from expansion of capital.
There are 11 million + ordinary AVR shares on issue at present.

Will they raise more capital besides, now that the share price is so buoyant? Strike while the iron's hot maybe? No idea.

I suppose it depends on what trials for FDA approval they want to kick off. In-human trials to date are - so far as I understand - one last year in Belgium and a group of 5 late last year in Georgia (the country).

Anteris recently rejected a merger offer from a SPAC - Special Purpose Acquisition Company - on  the US NASDAQ.
Just what further events occur in the merger-acquisition sphere, and when, is the $64 dollar question.

Maybe $64 is an omen? ;P

Time to sell or time to buy? As for me, I hold. Might have to sell a few to cover persona debt, but otherwise I'll keep riding the wave.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (2 March 2022)

Anteris, to no-one's surprise, have taken the opportunity of the recent SP rise, to raise more capital, via a share issue to Perceptive Advisors (or from wherever you get your ASX announcements).

1,840,000 shares, for $28 mill AUD (a neat $20 mill USD). Unit price of $15 AUD. Previous close befreo a trading halt was $18.60.
After trading resumed today, closed at $19.00.
Not quite 16% of the company shares on issue.

So, another substantial slice of the pie siphoned off to a favoured investor. Meanwhile there's a whole buch of convertible notes due this year.
As I understand it, those notes can be converted to shares on payment of a price based on a discount of current price. Some 5.5 mill + notes/shares involved.

So there's quite a bit of capital that's flowing in. Question is: what will be the future consequences?
Anteris has floated the idea of a NASDAQ listing, not to mention patnership/merger/takeover prospects, and there's also FDA trials to put together for the heart-value components-and-procedure package.

Will it all come together for Anteris' long suffering holders ? (OK, we haven't been suffering over the last couple of months, but hey, it's been a long dark tea-time of the soul to get this far).

And will 2022 be the year?

Exciting times.

Regards,
P


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## Purple XS2 (24 April 2022)

Anteris has been pretty steady for the last couple of months:* last close at $17.03*, having just a couple days earlier briefly touched $19.00.

That brief mini-peak may have been attributable to an interview with the popular media stock analyst, Alan Kohler in his Eureka Report : - requires a subscription , or a 15 day trial.

Not a lot that was particularly new, but CEO Wayne Paterson seems to be more upbeat than his usual effusive self.


Meanwhile, back in reality, next month (May 22nd) sees the maturation of 1.6 million convertible notes, being equivalent to more than 10% of existing stock on issue - 13.5 million shares - and there's a much bigger tranche of convertible notes maturing in August 2022 - 3.8 million.

So while this will add to the bottom line, they'll be converted at a discount, which I would presume will be a damper on much of a rise in the next few months, unless something interesting happens on the clinical reporting front, or even in the partnership / acquisition / NASDAQ listing fronts.
Which could happen out of the blue at any time, or not at all. Take your pick. As for me,I'm in no financial position to add to my teeny stake, 

but if I was .. hmmm .... 
	

		
			
		

		
	







Regards, P


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