# Bottom Picking August 2011



## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2011)

It is now time to put the gloves on mesdames et messieurs.

It is a thankless task, but someone has to do it.

QBE, CBA, FMG and TLS seem to me to offer the correct amount of : prior time stagnating in a sideways trend and/or the prospects of a jump once this silliness abates, with a combination of divies and expectation.

This is not an advice to buy but merely an attempt to garner information to relieve the burden of my cash and margin loot.

gg


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## Boggo (9 August 2011)

TLS would be my pick there GG if I had any idea what I was talking about.

It has some good instalment warrants (TLSIOP, IOU and IZJ) for those that enjoy a bit of adventure with a dividend run up approaching.

Oh no, I just realised that I am bottom picking 

(click to expand)


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## Logique (9 August 2011)

Equally I make no buy/sell recommendations. But I'm tired of the gloom and doom threads that inevitably spring up at times like this, so I'll have a go. 

When the dust settles, and I have no idea when that will be, I expect many stocks to provide excellent opportunities, and we all have our favourites.

LYC (REE) and NTU (HREE) are two, approaching long term support, and companies with a new age, tech necessary product to sell, in a tight world market. Would love to see these two merge, mutually beneficial.

AYN (silver), the sp stubbornly refuses to budge by much, but it's approaching support levels. And it's now transitioned into a producer.


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## skyQuake (9 August 2011)

Bottom's in imo, as of 2hrs ago


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## skc (9 August 2011)

This is the list of ASX200 shares that are trading below or close to their GFC low...

GNS
ERA
IFN
BSL
SIP
NUF
AWE
ALL
TPI
PRY
BBG
SWM
GFF
OST
TOL
QBE
CAB
HIL
FXJ
TLS
PPT
IAG
HVN
CSL
MTS
TTS
WOW
APN

Go pick for your life


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## tech/a (9 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Bottom's in imo, as of 2hrs ago




In the short term possibly.


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## notting (9 August 2011)

May I add EQT (It's not top 200) they are small and pay a good fully franked dividend and manage a stock portfolio and performed beautifully during the GFC even though their share price got smashed. 
If your fed up let em do it for you!
Love these iron gloves!


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In the short term possibly.




You break me up, tech.

Post of the year, mate.

gg


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## againsthegrain (9 August 2011)

The ratio is "bargain hunters" : panicked sellers is definately < sellers.

Imo if there is any bounce it will be a short bounce where the buyers will get swallowed by the sellers, I will be looking for bargains in the coming weeks or months better to buy on the way up then try get the bottom right. Some shares may not recover as quickly as others.

Just my view


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## Kryzz (9 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> Oh no, I just realised that I am bottom picking
> 
> (click to expand)




Make sure you wash your hands after


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## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

Just been looking at alot of shares.

Their lows for the day are significantly below their current price.

If you invest wisely, it would be pretty easy to make back any losses.

SEA for example, went to a low of 50, now at 57.5c. Thats 15% made there

Edit: now 59c -> almost 20%.


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## notting (9 August 2011)

You could just about bet your life on Telstra and be sure that you will. at worst, get your money back if you hold it for seven years and the share price is 1c by then.
Riskless trade?
Did any one notice that guy in silicon valley who has invented this wireless thing that can transfer data proven - 100x potentially 1000x that can be done wirelessly at present and does not ramp up load as it is used!!!
Telstra has been investing full boar in wireless.  Hmmm
When they anounced the NBN I thought that they had gone insane.  Tax my God!
Not to mention our future fund!


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## baby_swallow (9 August 2011)

I don't want to bottom fish just yet. I reckon the market has further to go.
Right now the ASX200 is like moving in lock step with S&P500. (Refer chart)
While ASX200 is now in the striking distance of the GFC bottom, S&P500 has 
a long way to go yet. If the US Fed will not print the QE3 money, there is a very
high probability we will see that bottom again. ASX200 will even exceed it with the 
Big Four banks tanking.


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## LifeChoices (9 August 2011)

My computer picked these stocks as having the biggest falls since 9-03-2009 to a few minutes ago

+-------+---------+
| code  | change  |
+-------+---------+
| VOR   | -96.83% |
| HST   | -89.73% |
| AYN   | -89.55% |
| ERA   | -82.45% |
| GNS   | -67.97% |
| NUF   | -66.29% |
| BSL   | -62.42% |
| SIP   | -56.25% |
| AWE   | -55.51% |
| BMN   | -53.57% |
| TAH   | -52.7%  |
| CVN   | -50%    |
| NXS   | -47.5%  |
| ALL   | -33.73% |
| PRY   | -31.07% |
| OMH   | -30.45% |
| STO   | -30.34% |
| CCC   | -30%    |
| TOL   | -29.34% |
| SWM   | -28.83% |
| PDN   | -27.21% |
| BBG   | -26.81% |
| CSL   | -24.51% |
| AIX   | -23.11% |
| CAB   | -22.12% |
| OST   | -21.35% |
| MMX   | -21.01% |
| TTS   | -18.63% |
| GFF   | -18.5%  |
| TLS   | -16.31% |
| FXJ   | -15.29% |
| WDC   | -14.72% |
| SGM   | -14.58% |
| FGL   | -13.8%  |
| PPT   | -13.2%  |
| QBE   | -13.01% |
| HVN   | -10.75% |
| SPN   | -10.33% |
| SGT   | -7.69%  |
| AAX   | -7.34%  |
| DOW   | -7.01%  |
| WPL   | -6.88%  |
| IAG   | -6.21%  |
| ORG   | -5.81%  |
| TRS   | -5.8%   |
| WOW   | -5.76%  |
| APN   | -5.73%  |
| CPU   | -5.37%  |
| MTS   | -5.13%  |
| LEI   | -4.23%  |
+-------+---------+


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## Julia (9 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Just been looking at alot of shares.
> 
> Their lows for the day are significantly below their current price.
> 
> If you invest wisely, it would be pretty easy to make back any losses.



OK.  Look forward to seeing you do this.



> SEA for example, went to a low of 50, now at 57.5c. Thats 15% made there
> 
> Edit: now 59c -> almost 20%.



It's just a little bit different actually picking those buys and sells for that quick profit in real time.  Seems so simple in hindsight, doesn't it.


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## James58209 (9 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Bottom's in imo, as of 2hrs ago




Nicely picked (for today at least). 

Now I wish I'd had one of those "boxes of cash" referred to in the "tanking" thread! 

Could well see a short-term relief rally from here.

But I just can't help thinking "Danger! Remember 2008! This could be worse!"


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## ROE (9 August 2011)

I pick HVN for asset play
I reckon price is cheap, not as good as operator like JBH
but the price justified it

It has large properties portfolio worth Billion...
at this price u can withstand a few years decline earning
and no grow going forward and properties book at 
book value going no where for decades...


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## skyQuake (9 August 2011)

baby_swallow said:


> I don't want to bottom fish just yet. I reckon the market has further to go.
> Right now the ASX200 is like moving in lock step with S&P500. (Refer chart)
> While ASX200 is now in the striking distance of the GFC bottom, S&P500 has
> a long way to go yet. If the US Fed will not print the QE3 money, there is a very
> ...




Actually S&P -10pts (-1%) from 10am
SPI up 150pts (+3%) from 10am

Definitely not lockstep atm.


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## Boggo (9 August 2011)

mmmmmmmmm ??


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## notting (9 August 2011)

SWM is the old WAN and is Down closer to 70%.
Divedend is expected to be reduced to concentrate on growth and debt reduction.
Bilionair Stokes is heavenly involved. They say you should never not bet against people like him. Even if he is nasty!
Longer term on that.
Got a bit


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## notting (9 August 2011)

ROE said:


> I pick HVN for asset play
> I reckon price is cheap, not as good as operator like JBH



Only fear with that is that retail bricks and morter may only be good for apartments if the shopping trend sustains.


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## Julia1979 (9 August 2011)

The kind of stocks you pick now should depend upon the evaluation of the crash.

Is this a short term crisis caused by irrational idiots around the world? I think it is, so I bought ALK, ARU and MOL today.

If however one should come to the conclusion, that we are facing a long term crisis, he should carefully look for bargains among the blue chips.

What I learn from reading is that a lot of investors failed to retain liquidity and. short hedging positions. This leads to the fatal thought "do I sell now in order to buy back even cheaper"

regards
Julia


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## againsthegrain (9 August 2011)

> Is this a short term crisis caused by irrational idiots around the world? I think it is




How is countries defaulting a short term crisis?


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## tech/a (9 August 2011)

Post 301 here for all those who like chasing dead cats.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23227&page=16


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## ROE (9 August 2011)

notting said:


> Only fear with that is that retail bricks and morter may only be good for apartments if the shopping trend sustains.




I'm a mad online shopper I spend a bit of money online.....
and I can tell you brick and mortal stores is here to stay for a long time

it will be another force retailer  has to deal with 
but it wont kill brick and mortal stores..

Factor in the margin for online threat but dont discount the whole business
because of a threat...

and in a pro-long down turn you want retailers that own the properties
because the two most expensive thing for retailer are rent and labour

take rent out ...in recession you can get cheap labour.

Anyway take care when buying stuff, buy what you can afford to lose

PS: I bought HVN this morning so my watch my bias opinion


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## McCoy Pauley (9 August 2011)

Looks like many punters are speculating that Uncle Ben will tell the world he's cranking up Uncle Sam's printing press tonight. The ride so far has been irrational, and the relief rally today is just as irrational.  China's CPI number appears to have been ignored by many punters.

I'm too afraid to get smelly fingers right at the moment, so I'm heeding Confucius' advice and not picking any bottoms just at the moment.


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## prawn_86 (9 August 2011)

I always thought AMP under $4 is decent, but havent done a proper analysis for a while


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## McLovin (9 August 2011)

ROE said:


> I'm a mad online shopper I spend a bit of money online.....
> and I can tell you brick and mortal stores is here to stay for a long time
> 
> it will be another force retailer  has to deal with
> ...




I agree ROE. HVN is looking pretty cheap, at the current price it's retailing/frachising business is being valued at about $480mln. Bricks and mortar ain't going anywhere for a while. It's still tiny, and even in the US and UK which are far further down the online retailing path b&m still exists.


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## Dowdy (9 August 2011)

Bit early for bottom picking, isn't it....


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2011)

Dowdy said:


> Bit early for bottom picking, isn't it....




Agree, and once some folk start it is difficult for them to cease.

gg


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## nulla nulla (9 August 2011)

Julia said:


> OK.  Look forward to seeing you do this.
> 
> 
> It's just a little bit different actually picking those buys and sells for that quick profit in real time.  Seems so simple in hindsight, doesn't it.




I agree with Julia here. Hindsight is such a wonderful thing. Having the confidence to wade in and take longs in a market that is being overwhelmed by panic is another thing entirely. Most times, it is better to wait for the dust to settle and then jump into the ones you have researched and are confident with. Just my opinion of course.

P.S. When I say "longs" I'm talking of buying, expecting the price to rise, even if you only hold them long enough to take a quick profit after brokerage.


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## notting (9 August 2011)

I eat my words, I do actually have a little HVN and will be buying a little more tomorrow after seeing Gerry tonight on Current affair.  Harvey Norman Big buys. Excellent.
Quote "I'm not expecting it to make much, a little bit"  BS
He looked happier than I'v seen him in quite some time, he was even rubbing his hands together.


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## RandR (9 August 2011)

againsthegrain said:


> How is countries defaulting a short term crisis?




What country is defaulting ?


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## IFocus (9 August 2011)

RandR said:


> What country is defaulting ?





Unfortunately Greece will be no ifs just when.


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## Tyler Durden (9 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> My computer picked these stocks as having the biggest falls since 9-03-2009 to a few minutes ago
> 
> +-------+---------+
> | code  | change  |
> ...




TAH should probably have an asterisk next to it - the demerger practically halved its SP.


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## So_Cynical (9 August 2011)

I took a small average down into ABC just after the open @ 2.29 so in front on that one and sold out of 1 of my gold stocks at around 1.45 PM freeing up a 3 year old lump of cash, but the rally was under way so my low ball buy orders for IIN, KSC and CPU didn't get filled...no afternoon sell off.

Perhaps on Friday ill get lucky.


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## LifeChoices (10 August 2011)

trendpicker said:


> Hi, I'm new to the forum
> 
> I started to write financial articles. I want to share on about TLS long term
> 
> ...


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