# The CFD, the Cynic and the 600 dollars - What could possibly go wrong?



## cynic (31 August 2016)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30891

As some of you are already aware, I was fortunate enough to be honoured with the prize pursuant to the CMC reader survey hosted here at ASF.

So, for the benefit of those that may be interested, and in recognition of the generosity of ASF and CMC,  I decided to start this thread for the purpose of journalling the fate of the $600 dollar credit.

As many of you will already be aware, I am usually slow to praise and quick to condemn. However, given that I do not wish to discourage CMC (or any other provider) from promoting themselves in a mutually beneficial manner (particularly one that offers benefit to ASF and its members), I intend to make a concerted effort to suppress any negative criticism that I might otherwise express.

One thing that must be stressed at the outset, is that, whether or not, this foray proves profitable, won't necessarily reflect on the provider/broker!

I put it to the readers, that if I cannot totally FTSE something up, then nobody can!

Specific details regarding the instruments, quantities, and trading methods, will be purposely limited and/or totally omitted from this journal, as I do not wish to explicitly disclose my trading methodology.(The periodicity of reports on the account balance may also vary towards a similar end.) So this might, understandably, prove to be a very boring thread.

One thing I will be particularly interested in identifying, is how long it takes for me to alter the account balance by a power of 2!
And when I actually do so, whether the account will have halved to $300 or doubled to $1,200.(Those pondering the same might like to post in their best guess as to the where, when and what!)

Today a number of orders were placed and some trades opened, and yet the account balance is somehow sitting right where it started. (I may have started out too conservatively!)

Anyway, please stay tuned for more exciting developments!


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## peter2 (31 August 2016)

I am very pleased to see you start a thread like this. 

Cynic. I'm going to say it's 50:50 to either target if you operate normally. If you're a bit more conservative than normal and I think you might have to be as there's not much for margin, then I'd say you're 80% chance to get to x2 first.  I can't say 100% because your methodology can be severely stuffed by an unforeseen event, like the SNB unpegging the CHF, flash crashes etc.  And you're going to try the FTSE, with which you have a passionate relationship. All the best.


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## cynic (31 August 2016)

peter2 said:


> I am very pleased to see you start a thread like this.
> 
> Cynic. I'm going to say it's 50:50 to either target if you operate normally. If you're a bit more conservative than normal and I think you might have to be as there's not much for margin, then I'd say you're 80% chance to get to x2 first.  I can't say 100% because your methodology can be severely stuffed by an unforeseen event, like the SNB unpegging the CHF, flash crashes etc.  And you're going to try the FTSE, with which you have a passionate relationship. All the best.




Funny you say that, because based upon the result of my first completed trade, it appears that I have somehow  managed to open a position so incredibly small that the net profit upon completion was rounded down to zero cents! 

So, in the absence of of some obese waterfowl, of the black feathered variety, gracing the markets with their presence, this account ain't goin' anywhere unless I amplify my position sizes.

Edit: Correction. I misunderstood the historical record! The trade is still open, but does appear to be having less than a cent of impact on the balance. I did say that if I cannot FTSE it up... didn't I?


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## Modest (31 August 2016)

Awesome idea will be checking in daily cynic!


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## cynic (1 September 2016)

With just a pencil and a pen, I figured it out!
(Well, since you mention it, I suppose the computer did help also, but that's just a technicality!)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xSdoWt7v0
And that's all achievable with just 7.5 cents!

Given that the first realised profit was 8 cents, cynic's future regal lifestyle, is all but guaranteed!


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## cynic (2 September 2016)

Well, after getting giddy with succes, it was time for some excess! 

After generating a massive 24 cents in realised profits, I turned to the market and...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUc

...dramatically upped my position sizes!

No prizes for guessing the outcome! Overnight the account went into drawdown and, at one point, the pnl was showing devastating unrealised losses (i.e. over $2!).

Yes! It has indeed been the week of trading dangerously!

Happily the positions have recovered significantly, and the overall account value is almost back to break even.

It's a fortunate thing that I do not have a day job! Consequent to overconfidence in my trading prospects,  I might otherwise have made the classic error of prematurely quitting it!


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## peter2 (2 September 2016)

You're obviously not used to dealing in such small numbers. 

You might even have to consider "discretionary" trading if your main system can't operate with a low critical mass. 
Wouldn't that be a change.


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## cynic (2 September 2016)

peter2 said:


> You're obviously not used to dealing in such small numbers.
> 
> You might even have to consider "discretionary" trading if your main system can't operate with a low critical mass.
> Wouldn't that be a change.




My first half dozen trades all achieved their profit targets and, due to rounding, had zero impact on the account balance.

The last trade I opened was 600 times the size of the first!


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## Wharris (3 September 2016)

You can do it Cynic! I have complete faith you will hunt the stops!


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## cynic (7 September 2016)

Wharris said:


> You can do it Cynic! I have complete faith you will hunt the stops!




Thanks for the encouragement, but if the account balance is any indication, your faith in me may prove to have been misplaced this time around! Time will tell of course! As it so typically does!

I was on the wrong side of NFP last friday.

Whoever it was, that coined the "trend is your friend" mantra, must have been the counterparty to traders like myself.

There has most certainly been a trend in my unrealised losses this past week, and it is most decidedly not friendly!

Open loss currently around the $25 mark!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OiV9Rk5SxKA


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## Wharris (8 September 2016)

I've had a horrendous week to be honest, i guess i needed the reality check ha. I find the trend to sometimes be a wolf in sheeps clothing at times, depending on stop distance!


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## cynic (13 September 2016)

It appears that the unrealised PNL has somehow transmuted from a downtrend into a consolidation pattern!

The open losses are still hovering around the same horrific level($25ish), but with the added bonus of some humungous realised profits(i.e. $9.25), the cash balance has rocketed to the heavens (now $609.25) lifting the account value off its low. However, the overall account value is still $17 shy of break even.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YgI84Qxb7JM

In order to properly capitalise on this recent (and sensational) outperformance of the markets, it is high time that operations were expanded!

Stay tooned for further exciting developments!


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## peter2 (13 September 2016)

Come on, cynic. Have a go. " .. let slip the dogs of war".


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## cynic (20 September 2016)

peter2 said:


> Come on, cynic. Have a go. " .. let slip the dogs of war".




Great idea!

I did exactly that.

Anyhow, the things we do...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mLXQltR7vUQ

Realised profits now roughly equal to unrealised loss!

Hold onto your hats folks! We are on our way to infinity and beyond!


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## cynic (22 September 2016)

Well I hope you took my advice and held onto your hats!

This past 24 hours witnessed some pretty wild gyrations in the account, partially exacerbated by a rather unfortunate SNAFU (Situation Normal - All FTSEd Up).

I didn't realise that I had forgotten to do my daily order maintenance, until a minute after two old (and unintended) orders triggered sending my account value racing towards the dreaded $300.00 mark! It was a very close call! At one point I saw the account value hovering around the $320 level. What a day to make such a careless mistake!

Fortunately the market absolved me of the SNAFU, when it later offered ample opportunity to exit the trades for a small profit, and the account is consequently $1.50 richer than it might otherwise have been.

Anyway there's nothing more gorgeous than a...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fIiV4JATfoQ...except perhaps $127.26 profit!

(Only another $472.74 to go before achieving the doubled account milestone!)


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## peter2 (22 September 2016)

Don't tell me that you had open positions going into the FED news. That's crazy. 

I suppose you survived because you didn't have any exit stops in the market as well. Double trouble.

Well it all worked out OK. A double negative isn't always positive.


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## cynic (23 September 2016)

peter2 said:


> Don't tell me that you had open positions going into the FED news.
> ...




Okay then, as per your instructions, I won't tell you.

At one point, the account went approximately 30% into profit, the cynic was proud, the stars were shining and the future was looking sweet.

And then the answer (to the question posed within the thread title) gatecrashed the party!

What a difference one day makes! From ...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-hqL4UfWRK8...in the blink of an eye!

The original trading plan could not withstand the opposition posed by the market this day, and nothing short of cynical intervention could prevent an autoclosure of the open positions at horrendous losses.

So the cynic did indeed intervene, with a deposit of additional funds, so that the deployments might continue, however, this action runs counter to the original intent.

In other words the negative milestone was overreached (i.e. account more than halved!) and then some.


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## cynic (26 September 2016)

Take 2!

So with additional funds deployed, the question now becomes:

 "The CFD, the Cynic, the 600 (and then some) dollars - What could possibly go wrong?"

I could set the power of 2 milestone again, but, been there, done that, and that milestone is sssoooo a fortnight ago! 

Boring!

So instead I shall use the power of 3 milestone! That is, let's see if the 600 (and then some) dollars is tripled before being diminished to one third!

Account value currently approximately 75% (was as low as 60%ish during last week's debacle).

Stay tooned for more exciting developments!


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## Gringotts Bank (26 September 2016)

I'm tuned in, but I'm starting to think you might have had more fun blowing the $600 on a night out!


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## cynic (26 September 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm tuned in, but I'm starting to think you might have had more fun blowing the $600 on a night out!




Oh ye of little faith, what could possibly be more fun that getting FTSEed night after night by bourses all around the globe?

Where are you going to find better value for your 600 (and then some) bucks?


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## peter2 (26 September 2016)

Speaking of the FTSE, did you get some of this? 

or are you waiting for a counter trend setup to get FTSE'd as usual?


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## cynic (26 September 2016)

peter2 said:


> Speaking of the FTSE, did you get some of this?
> 
> or are you waiting for a counter trend setup to get FTSE'd as usual?
> 
> View attachment 68235




Without wishing to give away too many secrets, let's just say that the account is now back into overall profit.


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## Gringotts Bank (26 September 2016)

cynic said:


> Where are you going to find better value for your 600 (and then some) bucks?




Depends on your taste in things.  If 600 becomes 60000, will you splurge?  I need a reason to keep watching (ie. a determination to buy some thing or experience if you make it).


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## cynic (27 September 2016)

'Tis a wondrous thing to be...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pAgnJDJN4VA


Account value 110%ish.


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## cynic (28 September 2016)

Well I was...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lqZ0-PhHsaE...and then found myself dangerously short of shorts!

Needless to say the account took a quick dip before bobbing back to the surface.

Account value 115% ish.


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## cynic (29 September 2016)

The account visited a new high yesterday and much as I was hoping to ...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uoTbGcWqTYk... the market clearly had other plans.

Account Value retreated back down to 105% ish.


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## cynic (30 September 2016)

With the account value punching new highs, it was shaping up to be the most sensational night thus far! 

Sadly, I just couldn't quite...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HNPrs17gZ2o

Account value currently 110%ish.


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## cynic (1 October 2016)

What a way to end the week! And what a week it was!!

Things were looking bleak at yesterday's outset with the account value dipping sharply! And then, suddenly, and beyond all expectations, things turned around and the day ended with the account at an...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

Account value now 150%ish.


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## cynic (4 October 2016)

And then there was yesterday, precious few trades with precious few dollars chnaging hands. Account value barely moved beyond a single percent! 

Soooo...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GXbk3OL-t-s

Edit: Has this week even started?!!


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## cynic (5 October 2016)

FTSE! 

Who the FTSE is the FTSEing FTSEr who reversed the polarity?!!!


Account value 145%ish

Oh well! That's the...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ90ZqH0PWI


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## peter2 (5 October 2016)

What are you complaining about.  There's been two nice trend days with a little late give back. The daily chart shows a classic BO pattern after a HL. This market looks and is quite bullish. 

Of course if you're not a trend trader or you've inverted your grid I would understand your angst.


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## cynic (5 October 2016)

peter2 said:


> What are you complaining about.  There's been two nice trend days with a little late give back. The daily chart shows a classic BO pattern after a HL. This market looks and is quite bullish.
> 
> Of course if you're not a trend trader or you've inverted your grid I would understand your angst.
> 
> View attachment 68341




Ohh! You caught me out again! I must confess to a little embellishment surrounding my angst. I concur that some drawdown from new highs can be typically expected. (The drawdown was actually a bit higher intra session on the heavier of my stategies, but partially recovered long before I got around to reporting in.)

If truth be known, I am largely delighted with the progress to date. The fact of having encountered a need to deploy the "then some" dollars, of additional capital, the other week, thereby derailing the original plan, has been the only disappointment thus far.


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## peter2 (5 October 2016)

... and you can't hold it against me for trying to fish for a little more information about your underlying strategy. 
Hmm?


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## cynic (5 October 2016)

peter2 said:


> ... and you can't hold it against me for trying to fish for a little more information about your underlying strategy.
> Hmm?




Well, make sure you use the correct bait!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BRzhflMkGLg


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## Gringotts Bank (5 October 2016)

45%!  Noice.  The power of not caring what happens to the 600$.


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## cynic (5 October 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 45%!  Noice.  The power of not caring what happens to the 600$.




50% is noicer! Happily the account value has recently recovered.

Edit: and what's even noicer is that it's 50% on 600 and then some dollars!


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## cynic (6 October 2016)

And now it's...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgDVk-AgOfc...again!

Account value floating between 145 and 150ish percent.


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## cynic (7 October 2016)

Account value briefly flirted with a new high before settling back into the 145-150ish percent range. This week is so much like that...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B2m-F4qLx3M...it's now getting beyond a joke.


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## cynic (8 October 2016)

cynic said:


> And then there was yesterday, precious few trades with precious few dollars chnaging hands. Account value barely moved beyond a single percent!
> 
> Soooo...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GXbk3OL-t-s
> 
> Edit: Has this week even started?!!






cynic said:


> What a way to end the week! And what a week it was!!
> 
> Things were looking bleak at yesterday's outset with the account value dipping sharply! And then, suddenly, and beyond all expectations, things turned around and the day ended with the account at an...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg
> 
> Account value now 150%ish.






cynic said:


> FTSE!
> 
> Who the FTSE is the FTSEing FTSEr who reversed the polarity?!!!
> 
> ...






cynic said:


> And now it's...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgDVk-AgOfc...again!
> 
> Account value floating between 145 and 150ish percent.






cynic said:


> Account value briefly flirted with a new high before settling back into the 145-150ish percent range. This week is so much like that...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B2m-F4qLx3M...it's now getting beyond a joke.




As can be seen from the above, the account value was in a consolidation pattern all week!

And just when it looked like all hope for a weekly profit was lost, along came the NFP announcement, and hey, presto, instant...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-P67b07z7Qw...and a new high of 170%.

However, by the time the markets closed for the weekend, the account value had retreated to 165%ish.


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## cynic (11 October 2016)

The week got off to a solid start with the account value punching new highs only to surrender them a few hours later. There's just something about...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PjFoQxjgbrs...that I can't quite fathom!

Account value currently 175% ish.


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## cynic (12 October 2016)

What better way to follow a manic monday than with a turbulent tuesday! A new high achieved taking me...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KxYCQJW89Wc!

Only another 100% of the 600 (and then some) dollars to go before the account value is triple!
(i.e. Account Value currently 200ish percent).


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## cynic (13 October 2016)

The single most important uptrend is the one that occurs in the account equity/value. Happily this particular uptrend seems to be present thus far this week. May it...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pmgBdqsOwLo...for many years to come!


Account value currently 210%ish.


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## cynic (14 October 2016)

Heavy clouds gathered threatening to rain on this week's profit parade and break the winning streak. And then lo! A surprise happening befell, bringing wonder and delight in equal measure. The storm abated, and the day yielded a small profit, allowing the parade to continue untarnished.

The account value managed to limp to a new...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=taOL5HJdx1A of 215%ish.


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## cynic (15 October 2016)

cynic said:


> The week got off to a solid start with the account value punching new highs only to surrender them a few hours later. There's just something about...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PjFoQxjgbrs...that I can't quite fathom!
> 
> Account value currently 175% ish.






cynic said:


> What better way to follow a manic monday than with a turbulent tuesday! A new high achieved taking me...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KxYCQJW89Wc!
> 
> Only another 100% of the 600 (and then some) dollars to go before the account value is triple!
> (i.e. Account Value currently 200ish percent).






cynic said:


> The single most important uptrend is the one that occurs in the account equity/value. Happily this particular uptrend seems to be present thus far this week. May it...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pmgBdqsOwLo...for many years to come!
> 
> 
> Account value currently 210%ish.






cynic said:


> Heavy clouds gathered threatening to rain on this week's profit parade and break the winning streak. And then lo! A surprise happening befell, bringing wonder and delight in equal measure. The storm abated, and the day yielded a small profit, allowing the parade to continue untarnished.
> 
> The account value managed to limp to a new...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=taOL5HJdx1A of 215%ish.



A smooth end to a quite successful week with minimal difficulty and profits accumulating...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b-JhtQYaKOM.

Account value currently 225%ish.


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## cynic (18 October 2016)

God bless the favourable gaps, and to hell with the unfavourable one's!

The week got...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KtUCkFlIR-c...thanks to the gap having been in the right direction! So continuation of the winning streak was pretty  much assured from the outset!

Account value currently 235%ish.


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## cynic (19 October 2016)

And the good times continued...or so it seemed until we ended up...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WhgY4Te0uFs

Account value currently sameish as yesterdayish!


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## cynic (20 October 2016)

Yet again the account value is the sameish as yesterdayish, just like it wasish the day beforeish, and this is now sounding too muchish likeish a...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn66Sosc6ds...for my likingish!


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## cynic (21 October 2016)

That Mario sure does know how to...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ELtpTBf-pMU. The account value briefly visited a new high before copping such severe punishment it was reduced to 220%ish.


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## cynic (24 October 2016)

cynic said:


> A smooth end to a quite successful week with minimal difficulty and profits accumulating...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b-JhtQYaKOM.
> 
> Account value currently 225%ish.






cynic said:


> God bless the favourable gaps, and to hell with the unfavourable one's!
> 
> The week got...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KtUCkFlIR-c...thanks to the gap having been in the right direction! So continuation of the winning streak was pretty  much assured from the outset!
> 
> Account value currently 235%ish.






cynic said:


> And the good times continued...or so it seemed until we ended up...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WhgY4Te0uFs
> 
> Account value currently sameish as yesterdayish!






cynic said:


> Yet again the account value is the sameish as yesterdayish, just like it wasish the day beforeish, and this is now sounding too muchish likeish a...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn66Sosc6ds...for my likingish!






cynic said:


> That Mario sure does know how to...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ELtpTBf-pMU. The account value briefly visited a new high before copping such severe punishment it was reduced to 220%ish.



Well that stagnant week completed the fortnight of...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uPv0AOlTxXA

Account value ish still almostish sameish as last thursdayish!


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## cynic (25 October 2016)

In case any of you are still wondering why...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kobdb37Cwc...here's why:

Account value smashed down to 195%ish!


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## cynic (26 October 2016)

At last some...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSzBG8awAW0

Account value currently 220%ish.


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## peter2 (26 October 2016)

Well I'm guessing that it's an automated or semi-automated strategy as you spend so much time looking at youtube  vids.


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## cynic (27 October 2016)

peter2 said:


> Well I'm guessing that it's an automated or semi-automated strategy as you spend so much time looking at youtube  vids.




Well it sure is a tough job, but somebody's gotta do it!


Finally we're back on track and...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J9lejEoIVPM.

Let's hope this recent resumption of the account value uptrend continues for years to come!

Account value currently 230%ish.


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## cynic (28 October 2016)

Well the week got off to a torrid start, and after monday it looked like the account value wouldn't be reclaiming it's high for some weeks to come, but then, lo and behold, and very much to my surprise and delight...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-B1iKoKxkA0...offered some amazing opportunities!

Account value currently 250%ish.


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## cynic (31 October 2016)

cynic said:


> In case any of you are still wondering why...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kobdb37Cwc...here's why:
> 
> Account value smashed down to 195%ish!






cynic said:


> At last some...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSzBG8awAW0
> 
> Account value currently 220%ish.






cynic said:


> Well it sure is a tough job, but somebody's gotta do it!
> 
> 
> Finally we're back on track and...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J9lejEoIVPM.
> ...






cynic said:


> Well the week got off to a torrid start, and after monday it looked like the account value wouldn't be reclaiming it's high for some weeks to come, but then, lo and behold, and very much to my surprise and delight...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-B1iKoKxkA0...offered some amazing opportunities!
> 
> Account value currently 250%ish.



After starting off grimly, the week finished with a fairytale ending. With the account value currently at 275%ish, following 2 solid days of 25%ish profits (on the 600 and then some dollars) the cynic is within striking distance of the power of 3 milestone!

Just... https://m.youtube.com/watch?lc=z12jgzvxgoyest3en23lfplh0lb1i502b.1473083000657855&v=-qkf0fLU2Ao...of 25%ish profit should do the trick!

So does the cynic feel lucky? 

Stay tooned, as the intensity builds, in anticipation of yet more exciting developments!


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## cynic (1 November 2016)

Well the Cynic was feeling lucky, but as things turned out, just not quite lucky enough. The account value is currently 295%ish!

Anyway, definitely drawing...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PT2_F-1esPk...to the milestone.


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## cynic (2 November 2016)

The day got off to a great start with the account value skipping through the milestone to an all time high above 305%. 

But before the cynic could pop the cap (on the bottle of savings brand lemonade) in celebration of the anticipated immortalisation of this achievement (via the daily statement) some FTSEing event or other simply had to come along to FTSEing...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7KbGJcxenDc...on recent fortunes, smashing the account value back down to 255%ish.

Damn it!


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## peter2 (2 November 2016)

No worries, you have plenty of capital and youtube vids left. 

How easy is it for you to change direction (on the hour, after one day or longer)?


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## cynic (3 November 2016)

peter2 said:


> No worries, you have plenty of capital and youtube vids left.
> 
> How easy is it for you to change direction (on the hour, after one day or longer)?




With CFDs it's typically very easy to change direction, as is the case with those currently offered by CMC. But is that the right question?

To flip or not to flip? That is the question!

When one chooses to flip outside of accordance with one's strategy/plan/method, Ms. Market will often treat that as an open invitation to drive the trader flipping mad!

My preference is to rely on the panic button. You know the big red one boldly marked "Get Me the FTSE outta Here!!!"

However, this time around it's looking like flipping may have saved me a motza! Oh how often the same discipline that reaps the rewards subsequently trashes them!

Anyway, just when I was thinking things couldn't get...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1crL10P3m_E...well see for yourselves!

Account value 185%ish.

Double damn it!!


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## Gringotts Bank (3 November 2016)

Can I make a suggestion?

[edit] well I'm going to anyway.  You were doing very well.  Don't get pulled down.


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## OmegaTrader (3 November 2016)

Hi Cynic 

What is your ultimate goal?

you already reached X3 haaha

I remember the famous poker player Chris ferguson, started a no deposit challenge
playing on free poker tournaments where you can win a couple of cents 
to eventually increase entry size get to  I think $10,000 total equity over a long period of time.

You could try and do the same to prove its possible to go from $600 micro account to $10,000.

Of course over a longer period of time and larger number to trades to show it is not just pure luck.

Also a equity graph really does paint a thousand words in this case.


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## minwa (3 November 2016)

OmegaTrader said:


> You could try and do the same to prove its possible to go from $600 micro account to $10,000.




Search Trembling Hand's challenge thread Couple of years ago.


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## cynic (4 November 2016)

OmegaTrader said:


> Hi Cynic
> 
> What is your ultimate goal?
> 
> ...




I generally find that it is a mistake to make attibutions to the concept of "luck" when trading. It is far too easy to dismiss results (whether good or bad) as mere happenstance, when they seldom truly are.

Every strategy I have ever deployed has had it's strengths and its vulnerabilities. The events of the past few weeks have thoroughly expoited both of these aspects(in respect to one of my deployments), as can be readily seen in the evidence of the results.

As for my ultimate goal, it is to simply see what might be achievable, and to have some fun whilst doing so! 


Had the 3Ã— milestone been captured in the subsequent daily statement, I would have been setting a new and larger goal. Sadly it seems that this latest string of losses is set to continue and will probably derail the deployment this time around. So the goal for the present is to keep the finger on the pulse whilst my other hand hovers over the "panic button".


minwa said:


> Search Trembling Hand's challenge thread Couple of years ago.



Quite true, and really nothing new to those, like yourself, skilled in the utilisation of leveraged instruments.


Gringotts Bank said:


> Can I make a suggestion?
> 
> [edit] well I'm going to anyway.  You were doing very well.  Don't get pulled down.



Thanks for your kind advice GB. The present situation might never have arisen if I had truly been doing well. But, just the same, it is very kind of you to interpret things that way.


Anyhow, as will probably already be quite apparent, one of my strategies appears to have encountered its personal...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_9CiNkkn4



At this rate I am wondering whether this account will even survive to see NFP, let alone the US presidential election! 

Account value 130%ish.

Triple damn it!!!


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## OmegaTrader (4 November 2016)

minwa said:


> Search Trembling Hand's challenge thread Couple of years ago.




Could you point me to this thread??

When I say luck I mean the fact that when you have a longer period of time and more trades it is less likely that someone can credibly say "that was just lucky"

The whole point of the small amount to $10,00... Is to prove it is possible with consistency to reach a  reasonable amount of money without significant starting capital and not relying on fluking it with a few highly geared/volatie trades


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## Habakkuk (4 November 2016)

OmegaTrader said:


> Could you point me to this thread??





Minwa may have been referring to this thread ...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683
although it's a lot more than a couple of years ago. Maybe there is another one.


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## OmegaTrader (5 November 2016)

Habakkuk said:


> Minwa may have been referring to this thread ...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683
> although it's a lot more than a couple of years ago. Maybe there is another one.




Yeah it is kind of similar.

sorry for hijacking the thread too much

What I mean is you say I am starting with x amount e.g $600 and will turn it into $10,000 

or X3 times whatever you want.....

with no deposits, just to show that it is possible. 

In a sense it is physiological but also that you do not need a significant staring capital

If you have $10,000 and lose some/all it then you have lost *your money* (in your mental account),

but if you put $600 and make $10,000 then that is *trading money*(in your mental account).

So it is like saying I got $10,000 and only risked my time and effort

Because I only invested $600

Even though ironically it is quicker and more efficient to just work your normal employment/job/business activities for the money to get a starting capital.



So if you lose the small amount you can back out and treat it as losing activity or gambling money, which is better than just ploughing through 10 k straight away.


I can't read Cynic's mind.. or can I?

But he may be treating this money as trading money( in his mental account)

Which is a good excuse to gamble the $1,800 ($600x300+%)

... just speculating

But $1800 is $1800 

money is money etc

It is like when you get reward points or frequent flyers, the rational decision is just to spend the money at coles/woolies or on a cheap flight deal 

but often people feel that points are somehow meant to be spent on overpriced electronics

Ultimately the exercise is to give hope to people....

Chris Ferguson can turn freeroll poker into $10,000 etc 

A trader can turn their micro account $600 into a  $10,000 trading balance...

therefore so can I eventually...

with hard work and determination etc



I would like to do the exercise but have to be profitable first ahaha


If I win stock tipping $100, I will try this 

I don't know how far $100 will go . hahaha

cheers


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## cynic (7 November 2016)

OmegaTrader said:


> Yeah it is kind of similar.
> 
> sorry for hijacking the thread too much




Not at all! Your posts have all been on topic and are most definitely welcome.



> What I mean is you say I am starting with x amount e.g $600 and will turn it into $10,000
> 
> or X3 times whatever you want.....
> 
> with no deposits, just to show that it is possible.





Unfortunately I did something overambitious during the earlier weeks of this exercise. In my impatience to get things moving, I implemented a strategy that aggressively incremented trade sizes subsequent to successes. It worked wonders during the winning streaks, but, naturally, set things up for a very heavy smackdown whenever the tide abruptly turned. 

In order to mitigate the perceived risk, the original position size was set quite small. I had hoped that the accumulated profits would serve as an adequate buffer for any successive drawdowns. My earlier estimation of the duration of the streaks (both winning and losing) proved short of the mark, and the initial exercise was derailed by a heavy drawdown that necessitated additional funds or abandonment of the stategy.

So the original intention of trading the account with only the $600 was derailed, however, given that I was otherwise happy with the prospects (just disappointed that I didn't commence with more conservative sizing) I chose to salvage the situation with a deposit of some additional funds.

The percentages reported thereafter have been based upon the total funds deposited to the account (i.e. the original $600 promotion plus the deposit pursuant to Cynic's intervention). 

I have chosen not to disclose the specific amount of the deposit, and simply refer to it as "then some". So, in effect, this exercise is now being performed with 600 and then some dollars.


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## cynic (7 November 2016)

cynic said:


> Well the Cynic was feeling lucky, but as things turned out, just not quite lucky enough. The account value is currently 295%ish!
> 
> Anyway, definitely drawing...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PT2_F-1esPk...to the milestone.






cynic said:


> The day got off to a great start with the account value skipping through the milestone to an all time high above 305%.
> 
> But before the cynic could pop the cap (on the bottle of savings brand lemonade) in celebration of the anticipated immortalisation of this achievement (via the daily statement) some FTSEing event or other simply had to come along to FTSEing...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7KbGJcxenDc...on recent fortunes, smashing the account value back down to 255%ish.
> 
> Damn it!






cynic said:


> With CFDs it's typically very easy to change direction, as is the case with those currently offered by CMC. But is that the right question?
> 
> To flip or not to flip? That is the question!
> 
> ...






cynic said:


> I generally find that it is a mistake to make attibutions to the concept of "luck" when trading. It is far too easy to dismiss results (whether good or bad) as mere happenstance, when they seldom truly are.
> 
> Every strategy I have ever deployed has had it's strengths and its vulnerabilities. The events of the past few weeks have thoroughly expoited both of these aspects(in respect to one of my deployments), as can be readily seen in the evidence of the results.
> 
> ...



And what better way to end a torrid week than with a...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NRUc5nGgY-U

By the weekend, the account value was crunched down to 60%ish.

Quadruple damn it!!!!


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## OmegaTrader (7 November 2016)

cynic said:


> . So, in effect, this exercise is now being performed with 600 and then some dollars.
> 
> ..........
> 
> ...









haha good luck with $600 and then some

If you increase positional size relevant to capital eg fixed fractional management on both the upside and downside....

Then as long you have positive edge/return etc then  that shouldn't the problem.

It sounds like your estimation of volaitlity/risk was too low and therefore postition sizing was too high

Which then led to your ruin 

I think

Just speculating


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## cynic (8 November 2016)

OmegaTrader said:


> haha good luck with $600 and then some
> 
> If you increase positional size relevant to capital eg fixed fractional management on both the upside and downside....
> 
> ...



There is certainly a lot to be said for the merits of FFP. However, the more conservative approaches would surely make for a rather monotonous and uninteresting excursion given the modest sum involved.

Anyhow, as those following this thread will be aware, by the close of last week, "Take 2" was teetering on the brink of disaster. And then a most surprising thing happened over the weekend. The cynic suddenly, and unexpectedly, found gratitude for...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XLf7Hug4p-w...actions of the FBI!

Certainly a novel experience for the cynic. Who would've thunk it?!

Needless to say, the monday gap was most favourable, and although the account value is still a little shy of its historical high, this has undoubtedly been the most profitable day thus far.

Account value currently 265%ish.

Yeee haaa and yippeee kai ayyy!


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## OmegaTrader (8 November 2016)

cynic said:


> There is certainly a lot to be said for the merits of FFP. However, the more conservative approaches would surely make for a rather monotonous and uninteresting excursion given the modest sum involved.
> 
> Anyhow, as those following this thread will be aware, by the close of last week, "Take 2" was teetering on the brink of disaster. And then a most surprising thing happened over the weekend. The cynic suddenly, and unexpectedly, found gratitude for...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XLf7Hug4p-w...actions of the FBI!
> 
> ...





ahha my last comments

give me $600 if you don't want it!!

and

hope the money lasts the distance-a wild ride far out


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## peter2 (8 November 2016)

You left this losing position open over the week-end before the US election. Wow, that was desperate. 

I'm pleased to see the FBI saved your ****(bottom). 

You may consider easing  back on the heat and go for the +1000%.


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## cynic (10 November 2016)

Well the X3 milestone was easily achieved yesterday and even made it onto the daily statement this time around! However, before I could make my delighted posting, boasting of my prowess, some surprising events unfolded.

As mentioned in a previous post:


cynic said:


> With CFDs it's typically very easy to change direction, as is the case with those currently offered by CMC. But is that the right question?
> 
> To flip or not to flip? That is the question!
> 
> ...




How the cynic wished not to have made the unfortunate decision to deviate from the plan. How different the outcome might have been! Ms. Market did indeed drive the cynic flipping mad, and now the answer to the question "What could possibly go wrong?" is abundantly clear. 

Much as I'd like to simply put it down to having been Trumped by Donald, it has been apparent, for at least the past couple of weeks, that there was misalignment between the chosen market and position scaling methodology (in one of the deployments) and the cynic chose to plow on regardless

Ohh ...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sbKqt77P-gs...all my troubles seemed so far away, now it looks as though they're here to stay!

As far as web based platforms and OTC CFDs go, CMC's products greatly exceeded my expectations in that they compare very favourably to a number of the competing industry providers (with whom I have dealt). As such I envisage availing myself of CMC's offerings into the foreseeable future.

On a closing note, I'd just like to offer a heartfelt thankyou to all parties involved in the promotion, and to all forum members who took enough interest to read and/or participate in this thread.


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## ThingyMajiggy (10 November 2016)

cynic said:


> Well the X3 milestone was easily achieved yesterday and even made it onto the daily statement this time around! However, before I could make my delighted posting, boasting of my prowess, some surprising events unfolded.
> 
> As mentioned in a previous post:
> 
> ...





So in English, the election wiped you out yesterday?


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## cynic (10 November 2016)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So in English, the election wiped you out yesterday?




I wiped myself out yesterday! The election simply presented me with an excuse.


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## ThingyMajiggy (10 November 2016)

cynic said:


> I wiped myself out yesterday! The election simply presented me with an excuse.




Bugger, well put! Got lucky myself, was so much like Brexit all over again!


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## Gringotts Bank (20 November 2016)

cynic said:


> I wiped myself out yesterday! The election simply presented me with an excuse.




That sucks after all that work.  But what did you learn?

Was it a technical trading error?  Lapse in discipline or concentration?  Self-sabotage?  Negativity from self or others that you bought into?  The pressure of posting publicly?  Something else?


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## cynic (20 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> That sucks after all that work.  But what did you learn?
> 
> Was it a technical trading error?  Lapse in discipline or concentration?  Self-sabotage?  Negativity from self or others that you bought into?  The pressure of posting publicly?  Something else?




I am tempted to say all of the above.

The error occurred when I deployed a third strategy which was designed to aggressively scale position sizes during winning streaks. This error was compounded by the fact that I chose not to remedy it after recognising it during the second heavy drawdown. A third error was made on that fateful day when my positions went heavily against me and my assessment of the situation was to depart from the strategy by reversing direction until such time as the market regained its composure. Drawing from past experience, this response could have reasonably been expected to work much of the time when dealing with such extreme movements. Sometimes one does have to be quite nimble with their performance. However, if one just happens to reverse too close to the extreme low, and shortly before a very sharp and solid reversal (as I did) then the results can be quite disastrous. And that pretty sums up it up!

There is no question that publicly posting one's progress does weigh on the mind of those possessed of some degree of vanity , so this was undoubtedly a contributing factor.


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