# Can't Explain It But I'm Suddenly Incredibly Bearish



## Gordon Gekko (26 August 2009)

As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bearish. Not just hopefully bearish, but really, really bearish - I've not been this bearish since I read that:

"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"


Hope this thread can bring those together with similar views on where the market may trend either up but in my view down over the next 3 to 6 months.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...sues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.html

"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets." 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinas-credit-bubbleicious-trade-balance-pain

In essence what is going on, is that the brief pick up in German and US GDPs on the trade balance side, are being facilitated exclusively by the credit bubble in China. By dint of China being able to recognize GDP at production instead of expenditures (like normal Western countries), China is now trying to back fill into the trade void left from the collapse of Western economies by promoting the same kind of irresponsible lending (and borrowing) that lead the US economy to its current sorry state. This will eventually end very, very badly.

Best of luck

P.S. Thanks to Michael D! His thoughts would be interesting!

G


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## Donga (26 August 2009)

Have a couple of beers, a good night's sleep and you may feel better in the morning..


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## skc (26 August 2009)

I found that my mood changes depending on what article I've read. There is no doubt in my mind that the economy shares the same construction as a house of cards (my avatar refers), but I am not game enough to stand in the way of the market. Afterall, the market is ruled by the crowd which can remain irrational far longer than my next phone bill falls due.

BTW, with an Avatar like yours GG, does feeling Bearish really mean feeling horny?


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## vicb (26 August 2009)

"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"

Is that the clown off the morning tv show?
Where the hell did that quote come from?
That is just scary!!


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## wayneL (26 August 2009)

vicb said:


> "David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"
> 
> Is that the clown off the morning tv show?
> Where the hell did that quote come from?
> That is just scary!!



Cramer is scarier.


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## Gordon Gekko (26 August 2009)

Donga said:


> Have a couple of beers, a good night's sleep and you may feel better in the morning..




That's the best advice I have heard all day!!!So I'll drink to that



BTW, with an Avatar like yours GG, does feeling Bearish really mean feeling horny?[/QUOTE]

Lets not bring wives or mothers into this discussion!


You both might find the following article on groupthink interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/business/02view.html


"The field of social psychology provides a possible answer. In his classic 1972 book, “Groupthink,” Irving L. Janis, the Yale psychologist, explained how panels of experts could make colossal mistakes. People on these panels, he said, are forever worrying about their personal relevance and effectiveness, and feel that if they deviate too far from the consensus, they will not be given a serious role. They self-censor personal doubts about the emerging group consensus if they cannot express these doubts in a formal way that conforms with apparent assumptions held by the group."


This quote might be good on thoughts for the day!

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."

-Voltaire

Best
G


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## gfresh (26 August 2009)

Lol! You've been bearish for the last 6 months!

Have another beer


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## drsmith (26 August 2009)

skc said:


> BTW, with an Avatar like yours GG, does feeling Bearish really mean feeling horny?



He hasn't got the bull by the horns, he's got it on the horn.


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## sammy84 (26 August 2009)

Lol...A perma bull saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews


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## Largesse (26 August 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Lol...A perma bull saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews





care for a rethink on that one?


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## nunthewiser (26 August 2009)

vicb said:


> "David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"
> 
> Is that the clown off the morning tv show?
> Where the hell did that quote come from?
> That is just scary!!





LOL u got the cooolest avatar 

have a great evening


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## sammy84 (26 August 2009)

Largesse said:


> care for a rethink on that one?




Thank you, I will repost;

Lol...A perma *bear* saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews


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## nunthewiser (26 August 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Thank you, I will repost;
> 
> Lol...A perma *bear* saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews





 them darn nepalese soccer balls eh bud ?


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## Gordon Gekko (26 August 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Thank you, I will repost;
> 
> Lol...A perma *bear* saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews





I've been a bear for 4 months or so? Does that make me a perma bear?

Why don't you get back on that Shetland pony and get out of here!!


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## Knobby22 (26 August 2009)

The downturn/correction will occur once we have seen a few scares and the market got over it and everyone thinks the worst is over. I still think that's a while off, but who knows?


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## sammy84 (26 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I've been a bear for 4 months or so? Does that make me a perma bear?
> 
> Why don't you get back on that Shetland pony and get out of here!!




I had to google what a Shetland pony was. For the benefit of others who too don't know what a Shetland pony looks like, I have attached an example 



You avatar and posts lead me to assume you are a perma-bear. There was very little to be bearish about today- increased volume, high close pretty much on closing on the yearly EOD high etc.
Keep calling a top mate, it will come one day, us trend followers will just keep making money till then


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## Gordon Gekko (26 August 2009)

sammy84 said:


> I had to google what a Shetland pony was. For the benefit of others who too don't know what a Shetland pony looks like, I have attached an example
> View attachment 32672
> 
> 
> ...





Gee whiz, I don't know if it's the beer but that photo is making me hot!!
Might have to change my Avitar


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## sammy84 (26 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Gee whiz, I don't know if it's the beer but that photo is making me hot!!
> Might have to change my Avitar




I wonder if they can be house trained....walking beer holder?
These Shetland ponies might need a their own separate thread.


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## wayneL (26 August 2009)

sammy84 said:


> I wonder if they can be house trained....walking beer holder?
> These Shetland ponies might need a their own separate thread.




Don't do it! 

These are the most evil creatures in the animal kingdom. You are certain to lose a kneecap, and be aware that their teeth are on the same level as your gonads... and they will use them.


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## Zaij (26 August 2009)

be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. First part seems to fit, ey?


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## white_goodman (26 August 2009)

wayneL said:


> Cramer is scarier.






VERY!

a fundy basing his sole reasoning on an Oscillator HA!


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## nomore4s (26 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bearish. Not just hopefully bearish, but really, really bearish




rotflmao, you've been bearish for months. What's the difference now?


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## Timmy (27 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Hope this thread can bring those together with similar views on where the market may trend either up but in my view down over the next 3 to 6 months.




I reckon you got it covered.  
One of those two, if not both, sometime in the next 3 to 6 months, definitely.


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## GumbyLearner (27 August 2009)

white_goodman said:


> VERY!
> 
> a fundy basing his sole reasoning on an Oscillator HA!





Yep

Total ****head

He got a role in Tropic Thunder

Good Movie..Would have been a better movie without this MEDIA CLOWN!


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## nunthewiser (27 August 2009)

i found this yahoo headline rather amusing 



> Bernanke's Next Tasks Will Be Undoing His First- NYT


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## Buckeroo (27 August 2009)

> Congress and much of the nation are in utter denial about the country’s unfolding fiscal catastrophe, as evidenced by federal spending that is actually accelerating, producing all-time debt and deficit records that exceed anything ever experienced by any nation on earth, at any time in history.
> 
> Denial is a psychotropic, mind-altering drug that by comparison makes crack cocaine look like health food, and addiction to it shuts down the brain. America’s denial about its out-of-control spending, non-repayable debt, financial sector fraud and deceit, decadent political institutions, epic dereliction of leadership duty, fiscal and monetary immorality, and disastrously dishonest system of cronyism is leading the nation into an economic nuclear winter of desolation and chaos.




I like the rant concerning denial - kind of sums up a bulls thinking?

Cheers


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## Real1ty (27 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bearish. Not just hopefully bearish, but really, really bearish - I've not been this bearish since I read that:
> 
> "David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"
> 
> ...




I mentioned on another thread about people seeing what they want to see.

In the article you posted by telegraph.co.uk you quoted a piece out of the article by a well respected Economist Bob Janjuah and his thoughts seem quite valid and offer good food for thought.

In the same article is a counter view by another well respected Economist in Teun Draaisma and here is some of the quotes he provides for his argument



> "We were on course for a Great Depression in February, but Armageddon was avoided. Governments did not repeat the policy errors of the 1930s."
> 
> "We have seen the lows of this crisis. This is a genuine rebound rally, *and it has been short by historical standards so far*," he said.





> *Mr Draaisma, who called the top of the bull market almost to the day in mid-2007*, has crunched the worldwide data on 19 major stock market crashes over the last century. They show that the typical rebound rally (as *opposed to bear trap rallies*, *when markets later plunge to new lows) *lasts 17 months and stocks rise 71pc.
> 
> The 1993 rally in the US was 170pc over 13 months. Finland's rally in 1994 was 295pc. Hong Kong rallied 159pc in 2000. This rebound is only five months old. The key indexes have risen 49pc in the US and 42pc in Europe.




So considering you already where a bear on the market for months what was it in that article that swayed you to disregard the evidence of one opinion towards the other?

What did the bear provide that far outweighed the evidence put forward by the bull (Who btw does expect to see a 25% retracement at some stage) or did the bears views just coincide with yours so they are valid or hold more credence even though your views have been wrong for months so far?

As for the link to zero hedge, i think i will look for some more reputable sources for my research than a blog written by "Tyler Durden"


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## skc (27 August 2009)

Did anyone see the interview of Dr Doom (Marc Faber) last night on ABC? He predicts things are OK for the 3,6,12 months, then we face a lot of problems. His advice was to buy tent, water, rations and _machine gun_. This recommendation was a downgrade from his last of just buying a _hand gun_.

Transcript here 

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200908/s2667994.htm


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## nomore4s (27 August 2009)

> MARC FABER: No, but I have to say in Asia and in emerging economies in general we had a collapse in exports and in industrial production. But the domestic economy is relatively sound and, unlike what the conditions were before the Asian crisis in '97.* We in Asia, we have large foreign exchange reserves. So in other words, the Asian countries are financially very strong and by the way also Australia.* We have inflated property market in Australia. But as an economy, Australia is becoming more integrated into the Asian bloc.* I have a relatively high opinion of the future prospects of Australia.* I mean higher than, say, of the US. Plus, Australians are hard-working people.




A bit of hedging both ways perhaps?


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## moXJO (28 August 2009)

nomore4s said:


> A bit of hedging both ways perhaps?




All the bears love Australia. Being close to Asia will probably be our saving grace. Might be a bit early to be a Koala just yet.


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## drsmith (28 August 2009)

To me the crux of that Marc Faber interview is,



> ALI MOORE: And then the next question is how that stimulus is wound back and whether or not governments can do it. Is that what you see as triggering the next crisis?
> 
> MARC FABER: I don't think they will wind it back voluntarily. I think one stimulus package will lead to the next one and to more money printing. So in five to 10 years time the real crisis will break out when the whole system collapses. That will be the end because the -
> 
> ...




He's looking at a 5 to 10 year timeframe economically but markets may try to anticipate inflation/worse sooner. The question is when ?


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## gfresh (28 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bearish. Not just hopefully bearish, but really, really bearish - I've not been this bearish since a bear ate my lunch




Well you chose a good moment to be bearish Gecko, as today the market closed at the high for the year


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## michael_selway (28 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bearish. Not just hopefully bearish, but really, really bearish - I've not been this bearish since I read that:
> 
> "David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"
> 
> ...




Hi I think long term its bearish short-medium term it could be quite bullish, below is the S&P500 chart, 

thx

MS


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## Gordon Gekko (28 August 2009)

gfresh said:


> Well you chose a good moment to be bearish Gecko, as today the market closed at the high for the year




Perfect timing indeed!!!

As I have said before if you can make money trading awesome! I really am truely happy for people to get ahead however they choose to invest/trade/ speculate!

I am more of a bear then ever and am still happy fully 100% in cash! If it makes posters feel better to bring to my attention my short comings regarding how much money "I could have made" by not trading etc etc than feel free.

Reality's post about why I suddenly felt bullish on that day regarding that article was very well written and In fact correct in it's assumptions. I do tend to "believe" articles in line with how I'm thinking in terms of Market direction.
I article was simply something to add to the post to support my view but not something that solidified my decision to belive we are near to or at the top, over bought, due for a correction etc.

My thoughts are we will test the lows and its going to be very very painfull for those that are buying at the top. Some would argue stop loss etc but I would argue mom and dads and or greed buying at the top of the market on the chance future earnings will support current prices. If you think you can make money go for it.

I sold out at 3800 and will wait for an entry point much lower than that. If it never comes well than who care I'm ****ing loaded already!!

Off to London and Scotland for 2 weeks so all the best and best of luck!!!

G


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## Buckeroo (28 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Off to London and Scotland for 2 weeks so all the best and best of luck!!!
> 
> G




Hurry back Gek, the bears are starting to thin out.

Still....its a good thing when there are so many the bulls full of emotion - not long to wait.

Cheers


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## michael_selway (28 August 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I am more of a bear then ever and am still happy fully 100% in cash! If it makes posters feel better to bring to my attention my short comings regarding how much money "I could have made" by not trading etc etc than feel free.
> 
> I sold out at 3800 and will wait for an entry point much lower than that. If it never comes well than who care I'm ****ing loaded already!!
> 
> ...




Well if you are loaded in 100% cash, would you worry that cash coudl lose alot of value in the future?

thx

MS


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## Real1ty (28 August 2009)

Buckeroo said:


> Hurry back Gek, the bears are starting to thin out.
> 
> Still....its a good thing when there are so many the bulls full of emotion - not long to wait.
> 
> Cheers


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## Buckeroo (28 August 2009)

Real1ty said:


>




Yep, have to admit, thats exactly how it is....very funny


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## Real1ty (28 August 2009)

Buckeroo said:


> Yep, have to admit, thats exactly how it is....very funny




Yes i had a bit of a chuckle when i saw it and had been waiting for the right post to apply it to.

He will certainly have his time on centre stage but when and for how long are the questions that anyone who knows the answer to, certainly not me, will make a lot of $.

Until then the next image sums up the current situation.


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## Gordon Gekko (28 August 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Well if you are loaded in 100% cash, would you worry that cash coudl lose alot of value in the future?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I'm not gone until tomorrow morning so I thought I would have another look.
"I'm addicted"

So to answer the above question, No I'm not worried, why?

Deflation!

Maybe I'm right maybe I'm wrong?

Love the cartoon!!!

The statue one sucks however!

G


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