# Determining a stop loss



## Trex123 (3 February 2012)

how do you determine stop loss of your trade?


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## junhan (3 February 2012)

*Re: stop loss*



Trex123 said:


> how do you determine stop loss of your trade?




5-8% lower than your buy value depending on how strict you are


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## tech/a (3 February 2012)

*Re: stop loss*

Initial stop or trailing stop?

Generally it would be volatility based.
You'd have your answer if you had a 
Well tested trading method.

So your trading in a discretionary manner.


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## Trembling Hand (3 February 2012)

*Re: stop loss*



junhan said:


> 5-8% lower than your buy value depending on how strict you are




A 5 to 8 percentage move on Forex for your stop!!!! What is your target? The collapse of capitalism by Wednesday next week? :


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## tech/a (3 February 2012)

*Re: stop loss*



Trembling Hand said:


> A 5 to 8 percentage move on Forex for your stop!!!! What is your target? The collapse of capitalism by Wednesday next week? :




That just cracked me up------


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## $20shoes (3 February 2012)

*Re: stop loss*

Hey, TH is back in the swill. Good to see you posting again.


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## Trex123 (10 February 2012)

*Re: stop loss*



tech/a said:


> That just cracked me up------




what you mean?


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

*Re: stop loss*



Trex123 said:


> what you mean?




A big move in forex for - T/h is 3 pips.
An 8% move in the AUD would mean a drop of 8c or 800 pips.
The comment was an excellent form of litoties.


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## OGRooney (31 July 2012)

I try to maintain a 2:1 Profit to risk ratio at all times... Having said that, I will take on slightly more risk in order to respect a significant point of resistance or support, because in reality, by respecting that Resistance/Support level you are actually reducing your risk of getting stopped out and taking a loss. Also note that lately I have been hedging and trading in the daily trend direction on both positions ie Buying AUDUSD and Selling EURUSD, and hence have made a discretionary decision to not use stops or take profit orders, I am closely monitoring my accounts.

There's nothing worse than being stopped out on an order when it's just a retrace or that last extra dip before she arcs up again.


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## Boggo (31 July 2012)

OGRooney said:


> *There's nothing worse* than being stopped out on an order when it's just a retrace or that last extra dip before she arcs up again.




Yes there is !!


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## OGRooney (31 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Yes there is !!




What losing your entire account balance? You get incorrectly stopped out enough times you'll lose your entire account balance too. Set your stops with enough headroom to take in market volatility.


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## Boggo (31 July 2012)

OGRooney said:


> Set your stops with enough headroom to take in market volatility.




Show a recent chart example of what you mean.

With a robust system you will get stopped out more than you win, its how you win that counts.

(click to expand)


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## OGRooney (31 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Show a recent chart example of what you mean.
> 
> With a robust system you will get stopped out more than you win, its how you win that counts.




Can't be bothered showing a chart - my point is simple. Anyone who is currently short AUDUSD and had their stop set to a recent resistance level has just been stopped out, even though it is not obvious yet whether the pair is actually going to breakout. Could work out, could have been unnecessary, there's still much more scope for bearish action.


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## OGRooney (31 July 2012)

EURUSD the other night broke resistance at 1.230ish, but once again no breakout.


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## Boggo (31 July 2012)

OGRooney said:


> Anyone who is currently short AUDUSD




Not sure why anyone would be short yet on that, my 15min and 30min charts are both still long so a trailing stop is all that I would have (if I actually held it)

(click to expand)


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## OGRooney (31 July 2012)

Sorry I'm getting confused are you actually suggesting setting stops right on resistance/support levels? Or are you just arguing with me to be a douche? 

In both examples I gave, a lenient stop would have prevented an unnecessary loss, I really don't care to argue my strategy much further with you, I'm really not the only person who uses it, I've seen stops recommended on dailyfx some 200 pips higher than the current market price. I personally would never use such a lenient stop I don't have the equity to throw around.


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## CanOz (31 July 2012)

OGRooney said:


> Sorry I'm getting confused are you actually suggesting setting stops right on resistance/support levels? Or are you just arguing with me to be a douche?
> 
> In both examples I gave, a lenient stop would have prevented an unnecessary loss, I really don't care to argue my strategy much further with you, I'm really not the only person who uses it, I've seen stops recommended on dailyfx some 200 pips higher than the current market price. I personally would never use such a lenient stop I don't have the equity to throw around.




I don't we need to resort to personal attacks do we??

CanOz:frown:


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## prawn_86 (31 July 2012)

OGRooney, please refrain from insulting other members. Any further insults will incur an infraction

Also, if you are going to discuss topics like this then a chart is the best way of visually representing this so we can see what you are talking about. Alternatively please use exact figures and examples so members can see what you mean rather than simply saying "at the resistance level"


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## Joules MM1 (31 July 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> .....you are going to discuss topics like this....a chart is the best way of visually representing this so we can see what you are talking about. Alternatively please use exact figures and examples so members can see what you mean....




good to add that to a "Basic Protocols and Guidelines" open letter to all new members......could even set a new standard in chat room conduct......

:dimbulb:


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## prawn_86 (31 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> good to add that to a "Basic Protocols and Guidelines" open letter to all new members......could even set a new standard in chat room conduct......
> 
> :dimbulb:




I beleive it is in the posting guidelines. If you are going to discuss chart related action, then please post a chart so we can see what you are talking about (or something along those lines)


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## OGRooney (31 July 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> OGRooney, please refrain from insulting other members. Any further insults will incur an infraction
> 
> Also, if you are going to discuss topics like this then a chart is the best way of visually representing this so we can see what you are talking about. Alternatively please use exact figures and examples so members can see what you mean rather than simply saying "at the resistance level"




Fair call... Sorry if I offended you Boggo.

On Friday night, when EURUSD broke resistance at 1.2332, a breakout could have occurred but didn't. Anyone who had a stop placed anywhere between 1.2332 and 1.2388 would have been stopped out - even though the long term trend did not change direction. In fact this correction was quite in line with the daily trend - I'd want to see a clear break of 1.2388 before I were to exit any EURUSD shorts.


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## Boggo (31 July 2012)

OGRooney said:


> Fair call... Sorry if I offended you Boggo.




Nope, not warranted but didn't offend me, more a case of you heading in the direction of attacking the poster of a contrarian view which is often a sign of weakness in your own statement when it is tested.
The rules of Aussie Stock Forums come before those of any thin skinned individuals and that in turn makes it fair for everyone on here.

Be prepared to have your views tested, it also helps reduce confusion if you are prepared to present the example that you obviously have if you are verbalising it.

Back to the stop loss bit, don't forget that you can re-enter the item when it turns back up as in my chart example of IAU above. I got stopped out of over 60% of my trades last FY and still made a good profit.
I expect that one third of my trades will cost me money, one third will break even and one third will make money.
That is the theory and in reality that is very close to being right.

The winning trades will look after themselves, the (potential) losing trades are the ones you have to control otherwise you become an unwilling 'investor' and before you know it you are averaging down and getting in more **** than the first settlers.
The old argument that they will turnaround is true in most cases but remember that if something drops 50% then it has to gain 100%, ie double, usually in double the time as well.

Just my


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## TulipFX (31 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> I expect that one third of my trades will cost me money, one third will break even and one third will make money.
> That is the theory and in reality that is very close to being right.
> 
> The winning trades will look after themselves, the (potential) losing trades are the ones you have to control otherwise you become an unwilling 'investor'




Summed up in this video:


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> Back to the stop loss bit, don't forget that you can re-enter the item when it turns back up as in my chart example of IAU above. I got stopped out of over 60% of my trades last FY and still made a good profit.
> I expect that one third of my trades will cost me money, one third will break even and one third will make money.
> That is the theory and in reality that is very close to being right.




I'm sorry but I completely disagree with that theory. I'm no statistician, but the *probability* of a trade breaking even is not 33.33* percent, as it is entirely up to you: there is a 49.999999*% chance either way that the price will fluctuate - markets do not remain static. A break even is the equivalent of flipping a coin, catching it and never revealing the result.

 I've just looked at an account I opened on Thursday evening: 
Made 16 trades, with 2 breaking even (12.5%), 3 taking loss (18.75%) and 11 making profit (68.75%), tripling my account equity (229% profit). 

and if you take out the break evens:
14 Trades, 3 taking loss (21.42%) and 11 taking Profit (78.58%)

I haven't been trading for long enough to compare a financial year, but if you'd like to compare any 16 consecutive trades from the past week or so I'd be interested to see how our stats compared.


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## prawn_86 (1 August 2012)

What % of account size are you risking per trade? 300% from 16 trades must have hit some massive winners or else your position sizing is extremely risky


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> What % of account size are you risking per trade? 300% from 16 trades must have hit some massive winners or else your position sizing is extremely risky




If I'm using 500:1 leverage, I tend to maintain a margin level of 1000%, so I'm relatively safe, but still have the option of getting down and dirty in a breakout. With this account the first trade was opened at a relatively high risk (400% margin level), but the level of risk decreased over time as profits were accumulated.

Either way my hit/miss percentage remains the same.


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## prawn_86 (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> If I'm using 500:1 leverage, I tend to maintain a margin level of 1000%, so I'm relatively safe, but still have the option of getting down and dirty in a breakout. With this account the first trade was opened at a relatively high risk (400% margin level), but the level of risk decreased over time as profits were accumulated.
> 
> Either way my hit/miss percentage remains the same.




But how much of your account size do you risk per trade? IE if a trade was to hit your stop, how much of your capital would be lost?

I would suggest you search through ASF for position sizing and have a read up as that is what helps traders survive int he long term


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> But how much of your account size do you risk per trade? IE if a trade was to hit your stop, how much of your capital would be lost?
> 
> I would suggest you search through ASF for position sizing and have a read up as that is what helps traders survive int he long term




I understand position size, that account was high risk, I was prepared to lose the balance.
 Either way, my argument was concerning Boggo's win/breakeven/loss/33.33% theory and his hit/miss rate (which *a lot* of people would find unsatisfactory). My talk of profit was just the icing on the cake, not a point of argument.


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## prawn_86 (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> I understand position size, that account was high risk, I was prepared to lose the balance.
> Either way, my argument was concerning Boggo's win/breakeven/loss/33.33% theory and his hit/miss rate (which *a lot* of people would find unsatisfactory).




Totally depends on expectancy.

You could lose 80% of trades and only lose $10 per trade but on the 10% you win you might make $500 per trade. Providing this system has funds to sustain the drawdown periods and has been backtested and is known to give those returns then it would be OK to a lot of people


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## skc (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> I understand position size, that account was high risk, I was prepared to lose the balance.
> Either way, my argument was concerning Boggo's win/breakeven/loss/33.33% theory and his hit/miss rate (which *a lot* of people would find unsatisfactory). My talk of profit was just the icing on the cake, not a point of argument.




Different systems and different methods work on different win rate. Personally I wouldn't read too much or extrapolate a 16 trade sample size. 

And do go learn about proper risk management. Even if you are on a good thing you can still blow it by doing a bad job on risk.... make that you *will *blow it at some stage without proper risk management.


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Totally depends on expectancy.
> 
> You could lose 80% of trades and only lose $10 per trade but on the 10% you win you might make $500 per trade. Providing this system has funds to sustain the drawdown periods and has been backtested and is known to give those returns then it would be OK to a lot of people




I agree, All I've been saying is this system could be made more efficient by reducing the amount of times you were incorrectly stopped out (ie times that you would have made $500 but instead chose to incur a loss)


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

skc said:


> And do go learn about proper risk management. Even if you are on a good thing you can still blow it by doing a bad job on risk.... make that you *will *blow it at some stage without proper risk management.




And please learn to write sentences that don't start with "and" - This works really well when you want to put someone down about their lack of education.


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## skc (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> And please learn to write sentences that don't start with "and" - This works really well when you want to put someone down about their lack of education.




Exactly which part of my post made you think that I was trying to put you down about your lack of education?


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## Joules MM1 (1 August 2012)

skc said:


> .... learn about proper risk management. Even if you are on a good thing you can still blow it by doing a bad job on risk.....




+1 

before :bunny:

after :afro:


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

skc said:


> Exactly which part of my post made you think that I was trying to put you down about you lack of education?




"and do go learn propper this and that", say that to yourself out loud with an upper class English accent and you might get why I thought you were putting me down/or attacking me/or whatever it is you call it when 3 people are already telling someone and some other helping hand chimes in... do you enjoy stomping a bloke after your mates have put him on the ground for you? 

This is getting ridiculous Prawn, I just wanted to share my  and look how many people think that's unacceptable. I stand by my *original *statement that it is a good idea to give your stops a "little" lee way.

 I've only been doing this for a few months... I actually know a whole lot and I'm doing pretty damn well.


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## prawn_86 (1 August 2012)

As i have said to you before, ASF is a place for detailed discussion and reasoning. If you have an opinion, members will ask you why and for examples. By doing this it enable us all to learn and hopefully grow as people and traders. There are many experienced traders here with years (or decades) of time in the markets, and a lot of them are willing to freely give their time and knowledge.

We are all here to share ideas and help each other, and so far it seems the only person getting defensive is youself. I would strongly suggest you read the "Posting Guidelines" thread to find out more about what sort of community ASF is trying to foster.

With regards to your original statement, what would you classify as a little leeway? What % above the 'usual' stop level would you place your stops? What R:R do you normally trade with? All these sorts of questions are important in trying to figure out if your strategy may be useful for others. If you dont want to answer them then simply dont reply.


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## CanOz (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> it is a good idea to give your stops a "little" lee way.




I would agree here, whats wrong with waiting to see? I can't see TH or Joules using hard stops trading discretionary on index futures. If you looking at the depth of market and you see buyers step in right where your soft stop 'should be', then you'd let it ride for a few more seconds/minutes yeah?

Usually my stops are away from the price and i use the order flow to tell me when i am wrong and its time to spew it up...I'm hardly able to be considered successful at this yet though, so i'll defer to the more credible....

CanOz


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> With regards to your original statement, what would you classify as a little leeway? What % above the 'usual' stop level would you place your stops? What R:R do you normally trade with? All these sorts of questions are important in trying to figure out if your strategy may be useful for others. If you dont want to answer them then simply dont reply.




I am talking about setting your stop according to support/resistance and how it is wiser to maybe leave 10/20 pips headroom if you want to prevent being unnecessarily stopped out due to market volatility. I've already quoted a risk to reward ratio in my original post, I aim to take at least twice what I risk. This is what confuses me, I gave two useful tips that would really only help beginners and then all these experts start trying to drill me on the nuts and bolts of my overall strategy. Come on guys, my tips were and are valid - If you set your stop too tight, you risk getting stopped out and if your not wining *at least *twice what your risking, it's too risky/not worth it. 

If you look over the thread no one had actually contributed anything about stops in regards to support/resistance, which I found quite strange... do you all just use stops that relate to your account balance and not take the market into consideration at all? This seems absurd to me. I take both my account balance and recent price movements into consideration.


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

CanOz said:


> I would agree here




Thanks mate.


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## skc (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> "and do go learn propper this and that", say that to yourself out loud with an upper class English accent and you might get why I thought you were putting me down/or attacking me/or whatever it is you call it when 3 people are already telling someone and some other helping hand chimes in... do you enjoy stomping a bloke after your mates have put him on the ground for you?




I see no reason why you would interpret my sentence with an upper class English accent, as opposed to say a Southern Kentucky yobbo accent. Nothing in my post was trying to attack you and it is unforunate that you have interpreted it as such. The same applies to a number of other posts in this thread - most are just debating the topic at hand and I can't see anthing directed at you personally. 

16 trades being an inadequate sample size to determine win% longer term is a simple statement of fact. If you have a larger sample size from your months of trading feel free to put those on the table.


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

skc said:


> I see no reason why you would interpret my sentence with an upper class English accent, as opposed to say a Southern Kentucky yobbo accent. Nothing in my post was trying to attack you and it is unforunate that you have interpreted it as such. The same applies to a number of other posts in this thread - most are just debating the topic at hand and I can't see anthing directed at you personally.
> 
> 16 trades being an inadequate sample size to determine win% longer term is a simple statement of fact. If you have a larger sample size from your months of trading feel free to put those on the table.




Yeah and show you all the losses I encountered as a beginner - that would really be a good PR exercise for my credibility on this forum. I had some dirty losses when I didn't know what I was doing as most people probably did. I shared those stats cause they were from the last few days and on hand (the account I was actively trading). You said you couldn't understand why saying "and do go get" to someone was rude or snobby so I asked you to say it to yourself in a an English accent, I used upper class to differentiate between the standard British accent and a cockney one. If you'd used a yokels accent of any country, the effect would not have been the same - I take it from your concern that you didn't actually bother going to the mirror and giving it a shot?

Eitherway, I did pretty bloody well last week. I *loved* every trade I made and it paid off.

I concede this round with a painful case of scoliosis, I'll see you all tomorrow.... or maybe in the new york session


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## burglar (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> ... I concede this round with a painful case of scoliosis, ...




Ok!! You had me scurry to the dictionary !


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## skc (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> You said you couldn't understand why saying "and do go get" to someone was rude or snobby so I asked you to say it to yourself in a an English accent, I used upper class to differentiate between the standard British accent and a cockney one. If you'd used a yokels accent of any country, the effect would not have been the same - I take it from your concern that you didn't actually bother going to the mirror and giving it a shot?




Person A... "And do go get high tea at the Ritzs while you were over in London".

Person B... "Why are you putting me down?"


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## prawn_86 (1 August 2012)

Back on topic please all


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## TulipFX (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> I agree, All I've been saying is this system could be made more efficient by reducing the amount of times you were incorrectly stopped out (ie times that you would have made $500 but instead chose to incur a loss)




What about when you were correctly incorrectly stopped out and only lost $500 instead of a massive chunk?

In forex we have found low risk multiple position traders with set SL/risk + exits (both profits and losses) on pullbacks are good ways to go. Rarely is our hard SL hit, 80+% of the time the trade exits when the initial conditions that had it enter no longer exist and have flipped.

If on a long, the price goes down, against you, then pops up - exit on that over bought indication. Allows you to cut many losses shorter than allowing the trade to linger and travel down to a full stop out. 

Of course there are times when the trade will come back, but statistically on our systems over thousands and thousands of tests this idea proves time and time again to be the most profitable one (or least loss incurring).


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## pixel (1 August 2012)

I find it mildly amusing, how a debate can rage on about two sides of the same coin without either side realising their own limitations.
The *complete* argument of the two sides can be described quite simply:

1. Setting a stop-loss too close to actual support risks getting stopped out unnecessarily. But not setting a stop-loss at all risks going broke. The skill lies in determining the stop-loss level *that is appropriate for the particular instrument, trade, and planning horizon.*

2. Having been stopped out of a position mere ticks before a turnaround is no reason to stay out of the trade. There is *no law against starting a new position* once the tide has turned.

All too often do I find that Ego and the view *"I'm wrong??? Never!!!"* get in the way of making the adjustments that have to be made when market conditions change. 
*
The Market can remain "wrong" far longer than any individual trader can remain solvent.*


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## burglar (1 August 2012)

pixel said:


> I find it mildly amusing, how a debate can rage on about two sides of the same coin without either side realising their own limitations. ...




+1 pixel


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## Boggo (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> I concede this round with a painful case of *scoliosis*, ...




You may be getting be getting the curvature of your spine mixed up with a lack of knowledge young OG.

_sciolist - an amateur who engages in an activity without serious intentions and who pretends to have knowledge_

I am leaning towards believing that the latter may be more prevalent based on the absence of evidence to support some strong opinions 



pixel said:


> 1. Setting a stop-loss too close to actual support risks getting stopped out unnecessarily. But not setting a stop-loss at all risks going broke. The skill lies in determining the stop-loss level *that is appropriate for the particular instrument, trade, and planning horizon.*
> 
> 2. Having been stopped out of a position mere ticks before a turnaround is no reason to stay out of the trade. There is *no law against starting a new position* once the tide has turned.
> 
> All too often do I find that Ego and the view *"I'm wrong??? Never!!!"* get in the way of making the adjustments that have to be made when market conditions change.




Excellent, that sums it up nicely pixel.

When I started out I was risk taking, then controlled risk taking, ie risking 2% to 3% of my capital on any trade. Have been through the whole ride em down, average em down etc thrills, improves your cardio capacity but does nothing for your account.

Through sticking to a plan of being prepared to accept small losses I can now more than double the size of my orders and I am only risking 0.33% to 0.37% of my total capital on any single trade.

Losing and breakeven trades are just the price of doing business (all two thirds of them !)


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## OGRooney (1 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> Excellent, that sums it up nicely pixel.




You agree with the guy in the thread who actually got what I was on about and summed it up for everyone? Righto then.


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## CanOz (1 August 2012)

OGRooney said:


> You agree with the guy in the thread who actually got what I was on about and summed it up for everyone? Righto then.




Yup, that's whatcha call a "forum moment", and i seem to get most of them!LOL!

CanOz


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## Wysiwyg (10 September 2017)

Bulkowski has the usual stop techniques and one that is a bit different from the ATR volatility stop is this one I put together for Amibroker. The range is usually different to standard ATR(22).


> In Kaufman's technique, compute the average daily high-low price range for the prior month, multiply by 2, and then subtract the result from the current low price.
> Also, the look back should be 22 price bars. That is about a month's worth of price data that you average.
> The average high-low volatility measure (HL) performs better than the average true range (ATR, which includes gaps, whereas the HL method does not) and better than standard deviation.



http://thepatternsite.com/stops.html

```
//// ATR Modified \\\\

HL1 = Ref(H - L, -1);
HL2 = Ref(H - L, -2);
HL3 = Ref(H - L, -3);
HL4 = Ref(H - L, -4);
HL5 = Ref(H - L, -5);
HL6 = Ref(H - L, -6);
HL7 = Ref(H - L, -7);
HL8 = Ref(H - L, -8);
HL9 = Ref(H - L, -9);
HL10 = Ref(H - L, -10);
HL11 = Ref(H - L, -11);
HL12 = Ref(H - L, -12);
HL13 = Ref(H - L, -13);
HL14 = Ref(H - L, -14);
HL15 = Ref(H - L, -15);
HL16 = Ref(H - L, -16);
HL17 = Ref(H - L, -17);
HL18 = Ref(H - L, -18);
HL19 = Ref(H - L, -19);
HL20 = Ref(H - L, -20);
HL21 = Ref(H - L, -21);
HL22 = Ref(H - L, -22);

RangeSum = HL1+HL2+HL3+HL4+HL5+HL6+HL7+HL8+HL9+HL10+HL11+HL12+HL13+HL14+HL15+HL16+HL17+HL18+HL19+HL20+HL21+HL22;
AverageRange22 = (RangeSum / 22) * 2;
AddColumn(AverageRange22, "ATR Mod", 1.2, colorBlue);
```


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## CanOz (11 September 2017)

Can that be done in an array?


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## Wysiwyg (11 September 2017)

I am sure a shorthand version is doable.


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## captain black (11 September 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> I am sure a shorthand version is doable.




This version uses "sum" to reduce the number of "ref" calls. Sum begins with today's bar and the formula begins with yesterday's bar so it's necessary to use (Ref, -1) on the RangeSum to sum the values beginning with the previous bar.


```
RangeSum = Ref (Sum ( H-L , 22 ) , -1);
AverageRange22 = ( RangeSum/22 ) * 2;
AddColumn(AverageRange22,"ATR Mod",1.2,colorBlue);
```


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## Habakkuk (11 September 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> I am sure a shorthand version is doable.




AddColumn(Ref(MA(H - L, 22), -1) * 2 ,"ATR Mod",1.2,colorBlue);


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