# Baby Boomers and the Impending Apocalypse



## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

*BABYBOOMERS - and the Impending Apocalypse*


A group of people was delivered upon us at a birthrate four times higher than at any other time known in history. 

This group was born between the years 1946 and 1964 and are known as the Babyboomers.

This issue is barrelling towards us like an out of control locomotive and seems to be a defining moment in Australian history.




> 2006 Census
> 
> The median age of Australians is 37, up from 35 years in 2001. The  proportion of Australians aged 55-64 is now 11 per cent (2.2 million people), up from 9 per cent (1.8 million people) five years ago.
> 
> Meanwhile the proportion of children - those aged under 14 years - decreased. However, the Howard Government may claim credit through its baby bonus scheme for an increase in the number of children under four, up 16,500 to 1.26 million.




Using the census results it is plain to see that over the next decade for every 2(two) Australians retiring less than 1(one) is coming online, with potentially catastrophic consequences on a Labour market already operating at full capacity.

I have touched on this issue in other threads but considering the seriousness and urgency of this matter feel its own thread is neccesary.

I hope we can discuss the Implication and ramifications, Identify solutions and exchange Ideas - And like all great problems finding someone to blame is always a good thing to get out of the way straight up - and a Government who has sat idle on the issue for the last decade would be an obvious place to start.

Its not all doom and gloom Business opportunity abounds within this epic issue.


Please /discuss


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## insider (20 September 2007)

Hey I voted for the second option just for fun hehehe  It was more interesting lmao


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

Shrinking Labor market

Implication - Massive Wage Inflation.

example -

My soon to be retired Babyboomer Folks work in the Field of Civil Engineering and run permanent adverts all over the country and canvas Tafes and Universitys for new workers. There demand for workers is already insatiable.

They offer large annual pay rises, shares in the company for each year the employee stays and several thousand dollars for employees who refer someone who accepts a position within the company.

This trend seems set to continue and amplify for them.

Anyone else have an example ?


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

Consequence - Failing health system.


Many may or may not be aware of the huge problems facing our health and hospital system.

The Australian government is desperately canvassing the UK for doctors and nurses to come and work/live in Australia.


example.

I have a friend who is a Nurse who recently told me she has work colleagues who are from non English speaking and inferior training backgrounds who she regards as "dangerous" (her exact word)

This demonstrates how desperate the system is becomming if we are forced into recruiting subpar Nurses (and it seems doctors for those that have followed some stories from QLD) although i did read they are raising the recruitment standards, but one would assume this is dropping the recruitment numbers lot as well.

Facts like cleaners in the Mining industry earn more than Nurses probably inflate this problem.


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## Happy (20 September 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> *BABYBOOMERS - and the Impending Apocalypse*
> 
> I hope we can discuss the Implication and ramifications, Identify solutions and exchange Ideas - And like all great problems finding someone to blame is always a good thing to get out of the way straight up - and a Government who has sat idle on the issue for the last decade would be an obvious place to start.
> 
> Please /discuss




At the same time there is such a strong resistance to euthanasia.

Both problems at the same time don’t make sense.
If somebody wants to go, let go.

Often people who want to end their misery, with their departure would greatly reduce burden on available care including medical support, as many of them are bed ridden hooked up to various machines.

If baby boomers are such an issue, why people were allowed to sacrifice their life going to war and cannot sacrifice their life to ease the burden?

Wouldn’t it be a noble gesture, when looked at from favourable viewpoint?



I only take part in discussion, because you asked, as we went through this in violent exchange of post with an expulsion at the end, so topic not very easy to discuss.


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

Hello Happy,


thanks for your reply.


I agree with what you are saying, and at current trends with a societies resources possibly stretched to breaking point in the future im sure Euthanasia will be on the table again.

I actually think its cruel and Inhumane how they "keep" some people alive.


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

Gotta love how 91 people want to slap my rude looking head with a dead fish when only 51 have so far viewed the thread  :


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## Kathmandu (20 September 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Hello Happy,
> 
> 
> thanks for your reply.
> ...




Next on the agenda will be the vote for soylent green

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green

Dave


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## Happy (20 September 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Gotta love how 91 people want to slap my rude looking head with a dead fish when only 51 have so far viewed the thread  :




And I didn't vote yet


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

Business Opportunity.


Astute developers stand to benefit from boomers lifestyle choices and this relates to the downsizing/lifestyle trend.

Many boomers choose to move to lifestyle communities, and some of these now a days are frankly just awesome - pools, restaurants, security, saunas, boutique shops, mariners, no maintenance work to do etc.

My still working boomer parents have already made this move.


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

Business opportunity - of the unethical kind.



Corporations may choose to deliberately make a shortage of Respite and aged care facilities.

This industry will need to be carefully monitored - By engineering a shortage of full care facilities corporation could create artifical demand and the resulting bidding war for placement in these facilitys could result in Anhialating a boomers wealth accumulated over a lifetime.

The pieces are already in place for this as can be already seen in the RE industry with lack of land release artifically creating demand and rising prices.


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## KIWIKARLOS (20 September 2007)

Alot of these baby boomers have alot of cash for retirement which means they will keep our economy chugging along. The aus birth rate is now increasing as well plus the fact that if we need to we can source cheap labour from overseas on these working visa's for the jobs no aussies will do.

I think we are in a good position with the future fund and the level of super in Aus. nZ is just bringing in a similar scheme to compulsory suer but its long overdue. If we play our cards right i believe we could prospore from this.


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## Temjin (20 September 2007)

Isn't all these are discussed in a brief format in Robert Kirosaki's Prophecy book? 

The impending possible apocalypse is quite well known but it seem the general public don't give a s--t because it still seem too far away. (like 5 years...lol)

I'm more worried about my parents then anybody else. So it's everyone for themselve to achieve financial freedom ASAP (and thereby, security from all these chaos) and feed for themselve first before worrying about others. 



> I think we are in a good position with the future fund and the level of super in Aus. nZ is just bringing in a similar scheme to compulsory suer but its long overdue. If we play our cards right i believe we could prospore from this.




And yes, I love the idea of a future fund, but it could do even better. 


I still wonder what will happen to the global share market when all these baby boomers are starting to retire and cashing out their retirements from their "super" funds. Do you think the existing working class will pump more money into the market than those baby boomers taking them out? I wish I have the numbers for it though...


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

Kathmandu said:


> Next on the agenda will be the vote for soylent green
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green
> 
> Dave




Whoa thats downright scary!


Thanks ..... I think??


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## nioka (20 September 2007)

Temjin said:


> And yes, I love the idea of a future fund, but it could do even better.
> .




I like the Idea of a futures fund but, correct me if I'm wrong, isn't the present futures fund set up by the present government only for the benefit of pollies and public servants? Isn't it set up to gurantee their pensions etc.


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## tech/a (20 September 2007)

Perhaps I shouldnt have voted in a show of respect for the fish!


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## Joe Blow (20 September 2007)

Am not sure what happened to cause the weird poll results in this thread so I have gone ahead and removed the poll. 

This thread didn't really need one anyway.


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## blueroo (20 September 2007)

nioka said:


> I like the Idea of a futures fund but, correct me if I'm wrong, isn't the present futures fund set up by the present government only for the benefit of pollies and public servants? Isn't it set up to gurantee their pensions etc.



Correct!

And I don't think Super funds are in any danger of Boomers creating havoc in the markets by removing their cash. It would more likely be drawn as a pension over many years.

The only danger I see, is where there are very large amounts of money, there are generally sharks circling for a part of the action. I wonder how many Boomers will be hurt when the light-fingered brigade start relieving the funds of cash.


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## KIWIKARLOS (20 September 2007)

When people pull their money out it'll go straight back into the companies they probably invested in by way of profit from sales. Money never disappears its the endless cycle.


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## disarray (20 September 2007)

what are the options?

let the old people keep working. howard is a good example of this. we treat old people like **** as it is anyway, letting them work will increase the respect they get and feel.

import large numbers of non-whites. the entire developed world is having a population slump while the third world as ever churns out more babies than it can feed. this point may be moot anyway as global warming raises the sea level and tens of millions of people throughout the pacific and south east asia are displaced and look for higher ground. lot of land left here.

contract the economy. it is the nature of things to grow but finding a sustainable limit is like applying darwin to the economy. those behemoths that are too big will collapse under their own weight while smaller efficient business will thrive. a corresponding curb of consumption caused by economic mess wouldn't be a bad thing.



			
				Temjin said:
			
		

> So it's everyone for themselve to achieve financial freedom ASAP (and thereby, security from all these chaos) and feed for themselve first before worrying about others.




pretty much, yeah


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## Julia (20 September 2007)

Starting shortly - ABC Local Radio Network 10 - 11pm this evening - Tony Delroy's guest is social researcher Hugh McKay.  I'd imagine Hugh will be covering some of this topic, and is always worth listening to.


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## brilliantmichael (21 September 2007)

Righton.

Other implications:

-Huge financial services boom in the form of superannuation and pension fund management (already under way since 1990's).

-Huge splurging on retirement happy days, then a sudden recession (the potential for which could be huge and protracted) as aggregate demand declines as boomers start really aging/going to a better place. i.o.w. The end of the world as we knowit!


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## Andy_aus (22 September 2007)

Correct me if im wrong but is the baby boomer generation predominantly a western phenomenon...

Solution: Move overseas to somewhere nicer 

PS. i dont think the worlds going to end and things will get that bad, but then im an optimist


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## Kathmandu (22 September 2007)

Andy_aus said:


> Correct me if im wrong but is the baby boomer generation predominantly a western phenomenon...
> 
> Solution: Move overseas to somewhere nicer
> 
> PS. i dont think the worlds going to end and things will get that bad, but then im an optimist




Got my nice peice of S.E.A picked out with my name all over it where i'll live very comfortably on about a third of what it cost's in Australia.

Dave


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## Julia (22 September 2007)

Temjin said:


> I still wonder what will happen to the global share market when all these baby boomers are starting to retire and cashing out their retirements from their "super" funds. Do you think the existing working class will pump more money into the market than those baby boomers taking them out? I wish I have the numbers for it though...




I really don't think you need to worry about huge withdrawals, Temjin.
Baby boomers will retire in gradual waves, not one sudden bunch.
And they are still going to have to derive an income so I doubt we will see much change in the sharemarket.  Let's say they withdraw part of their Super as a lump sum, and leave half to continue accumulating which is possible under the new Super rules.  With what they withdraw - presumably enough to live off - one would hope they are not going to just put it in the bank and draw down from it.  I'd guess most will reinvest it in the sharemarket  and get continued growth whilst hopefully being able to live off the dividends.
Or if they buy an allocated pension product, then it's pretty likely the funds for that allocated pension will be coming from sharemarket investments.


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## Whiskers (23 September 2007)

Temjin said:


> I still wonder what will happen to the global share market when all these baby boomers are starting to retire and cashing out their retirements from their "super" funds. Do you think the existing working class will pump more money into the market than those baby boomers taking them out? I wish I have the numbers for it though...




I also don't think we will have much to worry about. Firstly, as the baby boomers retire I would expect to see a natural lessening of the unemployment levels as we are seeing now, for the simple reason that, all other things being equal, there are less people competing for jobs. That means less unproductive welfare payments draining out of the system.

Secondly, the baby boomers still have to live and spend money, so the money is still circulating.

Last but not least, as they pass away, the rate of growth of the population decreases, but the money stays in the system via transmission to their younger generations. I don't see an impending apocalypse for the share market as a consequence. 

If there is going to be an apocalypse I reckon it is more likely to be in the property sector, more particularly houses, from a slowing in the population growth combined with an aparent trend for younger people to stay with parents for longer and when they do move out, they tend to move to apartment style accomodation.


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## numbercruncher (23 September 2007)

This is a Graph of SA nurses, Im guessing its a similar distorded distribution nation wide - Good demostration of one of the Huge issues barreling down on us, whats makes it worse is that there is a rapidly increasing amount of people needing Medical services on top of the hugely declining numbers.


One would assume massive wage inflation for Nurses is not far away.


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## Shane Baker (24 September 2007)

> This is a Graph of SA nurses, Im guessing its a similar distorded distribution nation wide - Good demostration of one of the Huge issues barreling down on us, whats makes it worse is that there is a rapidly increasing amount of people needing Medical services on top of the hugely declining numbers.





Those demographics are almost identical for all areas of skilled labour from Tradesmen to Surgeons. Due in large part to the baby boomer effect and also due to misguided further education policies by the Hawke/Keating government in the late 1980's. A classic case of govt short termism that failed the country. The effect is present most of the western world due to the baby boomer effect and similar higher education policies (user pays). The strong economy has furthered the impending crisis in skilled labour by making it more attractive to seek work elsewhere such as the mining industry rather than pursue further skills and education.


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## Pommiegranite (24 September 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Consequence - Failing health system.
> 
> 
> Many may or may not be aware of the huge problems facing our health and hospital system.
> ...




I have a wife who's a nurse and has now worked in India, UK and now Australia. She has also been a patient in all 3 countries.

She couldn't believe that for a 'western country', how far behind Australia is behind the UK, with its use of new technologies in nursing.

She has also found here in Oz that some of her Australian trained nursing colleagues are more concerned/vociferous about immigration rather than improving their own standards of patient care, which she has said is lacking to say the least. 

Yearly payrises in Nursing are automatic here i.e the more years experience you have, the higher the wage you can command.

In the UK, Nurses have to pass exams to increase their band and thereby attain a higher wage. Here nurses get trained up and the cruise through their careers

With so much recruitment from overseas going on, there are bound to be a few bad apples which slip through. The media have picked up on these, and the public like to believe the problem is across the board(I guess most Indian doctors are either potential terrorists or Dr Deaths?)

Australia workers have been able to cruise through their careers in the past, and now there is competition from abroad, any excuse will do to put those people down. I work in Finance, and have seen plenty of criticism aimed at Chinese accountants by Australians. Its unfounded and downright disgusting.

Unfortunately this country was founded on 'mateship' instead of a 'hard day's yakker', althought Aussies like to think they have a great work ethic. Its the worst I've seen.


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## numbercruncher (24 September 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> Unfortunately this country was founded on 'mateship' instead of a 'hard day's yakker', althought Aussies like to think they have a great work ethic. Its the worst I've seen.




lol that statement invites fierce debate now doesnt it.


I worked on a construction site in London over 10 years ago and 90pc of the crew was Aussie or Kiwi, to me that spoke volumes on who was prepared for hard yakka.


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## Pommiegranite (24 September 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> lol that statement invites fierce debate now doesnt it.
> 
> 
> I worked on a construction site in London over 10 years ago and 90pc of the crew was Aussie or Kiwi, to me that spoke volumes on who was prepared for hard yakka.




Bring it on 

90% Aussie and Kiwi on a construciotn site in England doesn't mean that there's a load of Brits in turn sitting on their backsides.

..and didn't you wonder why they were doing this hard yakka in the UK in the first place? No point going to the UK where pay is higher, just to bum around, is there? 

Its the same reason why immigrants from countries where pay is less always tend to work harder in there new country where the streets appear to be lined with gold.


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## wayneL (25 September 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> Unfortunately this country was founded on 'mateship' instead of a 'hard day's yakker', althought Aussies like to think they have a great work ethic. Its the worst I've seen.



Interesting comments PG,

20 years ago I would have totally agreed with you. We we came here from The States, the work ethic was pathetic. The only guys who would put a decent days work in our factory were all Poms. (Not all Poms were good, but the ones that were good were Poms)

These days I'm not sure I agree with you 100%. Certainly, there are some industries where it is still true (as you've observed). But generally, Aussies do know how to work these days.

...and I have no particular bias because I'm not an Aussie.


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## Sean K (25 September 2007)

Aren't we working the longest hours in history?

Read it somewhere....

(I'm not including myself in that basket of course


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## numbercruncher (29 October 2007)

Citibank just released a interesting/scary report about the seemingly terrible financial shape of a huge proportion of babyboomers, I cant see how a society of the future (without huge immigration) can support so many retirees that rely on public money - apparently its atleast as worse in the US.




> Baby boomers are singled out for some heavy criticism by the authors of the Citibank report, who label them "the shoulda, coulda, woulda" generation because so many have not planned effectively for retirement.
> 
> 
> Queensland's reputation as a retirement haven may be ill-deserved," the Citibank report said. "In addition to sun, sand and surf, the Sunshine State also has the highest proportion of retirees relying on the age pension as their primary source of income (59 per cent) – possibly making it more appropriately described as the 'welfare state'."




http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22657178-5003417,00.html


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## Wysiwyg (29 October 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Citibank just released a interesting/scary report about the seemingly terrible financial shape of a huge proportion of babyboomers, I cant see how a society of the future (without huge immigration) can support so many retirees that rely on public money - apparently its atleast as worse in the US.




You`re back.


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## numbercruncher (29 October 2007)

Wysiwyg said:


> You`re back.





Yes 


Moved back to QLD , good to be home ! But im on dialup waiting for telstra, very painful


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## numbercruncher (21 November 2007)

Interesting article about Japans massive aging population, a sneak peek into our future perhaps ? anyone say over stretched hospital system ?????




> A TENTH of Japan's population is now aged 75 or older, a historical high signalling risks to the economy's long-term growth and ability to fund growing pension payments.
> 
> The number of people in Japan aged 75 or older came to 12.76m at the start of November, up from 12.21m at the same time last year, monthly data from the Internal Affairs Ministry showed today.
> 
> ...




http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22799362-5003402,00.html


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## Happy (22 November 2007)

Population reduction is not all bad.
There will be decreased need for new housing, smaller demand for food, water and energy.

Japan will be able to slow down and take a breather.


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## numbercruncher (22 November 2007)

Happy said:


> Population reduction is not all bad.
> There will be decreased need for new housing, smaller demand for food, water and energy.
> 
> Japan will be able to slow down and take a breather.





Yes I agree especially from an enviromental point of view, the world needs a smaller population.

Whats concerning is the demands of countries resources , taxes etc to support the hugely disproportionate amount of retirees


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## Temjin (23 November 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Shrinking Labor market
> 
> Implication - Massive Wage Inflation.
> 
> ...




I can tell you that my company (corporate government) is willing to kill for civil engineers.  

The baby boomers prohecy is not something new. At least Robert kirosaki wrote a whole book about it. 

What is the solution? No pensions for retirees, government medicare bankruptcy, massive wage inflation, the end of the war?


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## numbercruncher (2 December 2007)

Good little read here about boomers and possible US bankruptcy 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/37424/the-silver-tsunami-about-to-hit-america.html




> Casey-Kirschling is the first of America’s baby-boomers to have applied for her old age pension, heralding the start of what demographers are calling the “silver tsunami” – as the first wave of the 78 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 reach the age of 62, entitling them to monthly retirement benefits from the country’s rapidly dwindling social security funds. With the US facing an estimated *$50trn* in future benefit obligations, some fear we may look back on this as the point when America started to go bankrupt.
> 
> How did the country get into this trouble?
> Simple demographics – as the American population has aged over the past 50 years, there are fewer taxpayers supporting those who have retired. As World War II drew to a close, *there were 42 workers paying money into the social security system for each retiree drawing funds out. Today the ratio is down to just three workers per retiree. And in the course of the next 20 years, that ratio will fall to two to one*. The problem is that the number of Americans over the age of 65 (currently 37 million) is set to double to nearly 80 million by 2045, while the size of the workforce is set to grow by just 20%.
> ...


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## Happy (3 December 2007)

> From ABC, 3 Dec. 07
> 
> Baby boomers advised to rethink investments
> 
> ...




Looks like a plug for Aurora Infrastructure Buy-Write Income Trust


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