# Worst Reccession for years, fact or fiction?



## moXJO (12 May 2009)

Conflicting media reports. Conflicting Swan speeches. Markets seem just as confused, and talk of China pulling a quick mend.

In the real world, I have never been busier. Everyone I know is also flat out. But at the same time I know some industries are doing it real tough. 

People seem to have started up spending and running up debt just as much as before. And fhog has got a good workout just from my list of friends.

Are we going to recover quickly, even with the massive problems that in reality are still sitting there unattended?
I know there was a lot of talk on US forums about the state of the US economy and its debt back in 99-2000. With many of the same topics brought up as have today. But that was glossed over and we had a massive bubble bull run.

Just find it hard to believe that a recovery is being touted already. Have the figures really been fudged enough to bring the economy into a recovery?


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## Aussiejeff (13 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> Conflicting media reports. Conflicting Swan speeches. Markets seem just as confused, and talk of China pulling a quick mend.
> 
> In the real world, I have never been busier. Everyone I know is also flat out. But at the same time I know some industries are doing it real tough.
> 
> ...




Certainly, KRuddSwan Ltd would hope so!!

NewWorld ModPollies have finally worked out how to use ModTech to flood MassMedia with sufficient PollieProp UpSpeak to effectively overwhelm any possible HoiPoloi DownSpeak.

Soon, a GloryGlitterous NewAge of SuperSurpluses & MegaWealth await us.

All we have to do is believe, brother moXJO... _BELIEVE_ and it shall come to pass!

"O-m-m-m-m.... O-m-m-m-m-m-m-m-m"


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## satanoperca (13 May 2009)

Yes, the whole world is contracting over indebtedness.

The budget is the worst in pre war history.

The government was left will $20B in the bank a little over a year, spent that and needs $58B more.

The government insisted 6 months ago that we were different to the rest of the world and we wouldn't enter a recession or a deficit in the budget.

Government revenue is being smashed.

Does anyone have the deficit figures for the last recession and index them according to inflation for the last 18 years to see how out of whack the budget was?

Would you encourage your child to get another credit card once they clocked out there existing one or put them on rations until they paid it down?

Debt + debt = recovery ha!


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## Sean K (13 May 2009)

Not another recession thread...



satanoperca said:


> The government insisted 6 months ago that we were different to the rest of the world and we wouldn't enter a recession or a deficit in the budget.



Yes, their economic vision has been proven. It stops just before a vote might be lost. 

Has it ever been any other way?


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## lookout (13 May 2009)

I wonder if the back room strategy meetings painted a more sombre picture leading to the decision to increase military spending. We don't need more submarines to keep boat people away.


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## Timmy (13 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> In the real world, I have never been busier. Everyone I know is also flat out.




Can I ask what industry you are in moXJO?


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## Calliope (13 May 2009)

Fiction, according to Rudd and Swan newthink, and apparently based on RBA forecasts, we will be back to 4.5% growth in a few years. Indeed, the huge budget spending and pension rises are based on that supposition Apparently we will be the only western country to do this.

Just watch growth stocks soar today...and pigs will also soar overhead.


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## Aussiejeff (13 May 2009)

Calliope said:


> Fiction, according to Rudd and Swan newthink, and apparently based on RBA forecasts, we will be back to 4.5% growth in a few years. Indeed, the huge budget spending and pension rises are based on that supposition Apparently we will be the only western country to do this.
> 
> Just watch growth stocks soar today...and *pigs will also soar overhead.*




Oh!

Has Swine Flu made a comeback?


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## Glen48 (13 May 2009)

Seems to me if you are in any business selling over the top items like Boats, jet Ski's high class restaurants, cars  etc you will find it hard going but the basic item like black and Gold Bake beans ( get the one with the Ham flavour ) you may hang on..
Holden are selling 50 60 K cars for 35 and Ford have dropped 20 of their model. Ski shop are trying to sell on E bay as private sellers.


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## Sean K (13 May 2009)

The GFC/GEC has devestated Mexico.

I had dinner with a guy last night who owns property in Playa del Carmen and he waved last months rent on one of his properties to keep them in business. $30K +++.


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## Bushman (13 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> Conflicting media reports. Conflicting Swan speeches. Markets seem just as confused, and talk of China pulling a quick mend.
> 
> In the real world, I have never been busier. Everyone I know is also flat out. But at the same time I know some industries are doing it real tough.
> 
> ...




I keep thinking about the speed with which it unravelled and draw parallels with the speed with which we will recover. The interconnectedness of governments, markets, economies and information. It has been a good old fashioned 'credit crunch' but this time it is different as it has occured in the information age. Think about the Great Depression - no computers, no airplanes, massive distrust between the 'New World' and the 'Old World' in the wake of Americas emergence as a superpower and WWI. Now compare it too the homogenised First World and the speed with which information travels. 

We, as investors, need to keep up with this and consider that bubbles will form, deflate and re-inflate at warp speed in the communciation age. My 2c. 

PS: we will come to look at this recession as the one we had to have. Imagine another 3-4 years of 'shadow banking' growth and the bubble bursting would have been beyond even the Western democracies/China's ability to re-inflate.


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## Calliope (13 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Oh!
> 
> Has Swine Flu made a comeback?




Actually that's a good analogy. Like the swine flu panic, the horror budget turned out to be a fizzer. 

Solely crafted to keep Rudd's adoring fans happy. No extra taxes on beer or petrol. Just a few symbolic kick's up the **** for the nasty rich to keep the class warriors happy.

Those are not my italics. They are the censor's


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## Timmy (13 May 2009)

Calliope said:


> Those are not my italics. They are the censor's




What italics?  What censors?


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## Calliope (13 May 2009)

Timmy said:


> What italics?  What censors?




OK. Asterisks. I was having a senior moment.


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## Aussiejeff (13 May 2009)

Timmy said:


> What italics?  What censors?




Just try typing *bleep* you *bleeping* *bleeper* and you'll *bleeping* find out!


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## Timmy (13 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Just try typing *bleep* you *bleeping* *bleeper* and you'll *bleeping* find out!




Got it!


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## glads262 (13 May 2009)

Recession?? What recession? -.5% growth is hardly a recession.

Yes, there is a huge rise in unemployment due to the temporary halt in the mining boom created by the AWOL of lending in Oct-Dec last year.

When the mining boom picks up again, these jobs will magically reappear. And this could happen sooner rather than later (ie in the next 12 months)

Instead of saying "we are in recession"
We should be saying "we are in a temporary slowdown caused by a pause in the mining boom"

A recession is what is happening in every other country.


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## MR. (13 May 2009)

glads262 said:


> Recession?? What recession? -.5% growth is hardly a recession.
> 
> Yes, there is a huge rise in unemployment due to the temporary halt in the mining boom created by the AWOL of lending in Oct-Dec last year.
> 
> ...




righttttttttttttttttttt...... now that's funny........


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## YELNATS (13 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> In the real world, I have never been busier. Everyone I know is also flat out.




This can be a feature of a recession or the fear of an even deeper recession by knee-jerk management decisions. Retrenchments and thus higher unemployment levels, leaving the same or similar workload to be done by ever fewer staff. 

Sometimes we forget the additional stress caused to the retained staff by such higher workloads.


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## gfresh (13 May 2009)

To be honest, I am coming to the conclusion that it's not as bad as feared, for Australia anyhow. I know of a few people effected, but the list hasn't grown recently, and those I know who were experiencing it have not had it get worse in the last 3 months. I really expected mid-year for things to accelerate down hill, but not obvious yet. 

It could just be a pause before another economic leg-down, but at this point it seems there needs to be further shocks for it to get worse from here on it. 

All perspectives are different I guess depending on which area you work in, and which trades you associate with.


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## jonojpsg (13 May 2009)

gfresh said:


> To be honest, I am coming to the conclusion that it's not as bad as feared, for Australia anyhow. I know of a few people effected, but the list hasn't grown recently, and those I know who were experiencing it have not had it get worse in the last 3 months. I really expected mid-year for things to accelerate down hill, but not obvious yet.
> 
> It could just be a pause before another economic leg-down, but at this point it seems there needs to be further shocks for it to get worse from here on it.
> 
> All perspectives are different I guess depending on which area you work in, and which trades you associate with.




Definitely the case here in Tassie.  I have friends in construction and they are still busy with more large projects and broadacre housing developments on the way.  The stimulus package for schools in particular has a massive overhang of work that will need to be done by someone, as schools will NOT let free money slip out of their hands.

I think also, because of the lower amount of manufacturing in Australia, that the slowdown caused by businesses slashing inventories has not has as marked an effect on our employment and overall economy.

Just my 2c.


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## Temjin (13 May 2009)

What's a recession anyway?

A temporary downturn in an otherwise healthy economy?

And what about a depression?

A systematic breakdown of the financial system requiring massive restructuring efforts and are usually accompanied by bank failures and debt deflation.

Are we in a healthy economy with just a temporary downturn where asset prices will magically go back up to its previous peak in 12 months or so? And that confidence in the market will magically go back to the pre-bust level and everybody would be buying their latest 50 inch LCD screen on their maxed out credit cards or on laybuys??

No, it wouldn't go back for a LONG LONG TIME! 

It's depressing and permissitic, but I'm realistic about the future and actually quite optimistic about my own one. (that I will be better off than a lot of people and am relatively well positioned from this)


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## Smurf1976 (13 May 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Definitely the case here in Tassie.  I have friends in construction and they are still busy with more large projects and broadacre housing developments on the way.  The stimulus package for schools in particular has a massive overhang of work that will need to be done by someone, as schools will NOT let free money slip out of their hands.



I'll second that one and I'm also in Tas.

All of a sudden, I'm having more trouble than ever getting hold of certain trades and/or companies to do small jobs. Everyone seems flat out. Even the roads are busy with traffic, something that's never really been a problem here in the past until this year.


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## moXJO (13 May 2009)

Timmy said:


> Can I ask what industry you are in moXJO?




Construction, self employed tradie.


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## Wysiwyg (13 May 2009)

*Re: Worst Recession for years, fact or fiction?*

According to the direction of the All Ordinaries Index the recession is over.


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## Aussiejeff (14 May 2009)

*Re: Worst Recession for years, fact or fiction?*



Wysiwyg said:


> According to the direction of the All Ordinaries Index the recession is over.




Not so fast, buddy...!

Looks like the Teddy Bear's picnic rally has gone back into recession.


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## MR. (14 May 2009)

Peoples make up your mind, what's in exactly ........ spots or stripes?

Now try to exit the train in an orderly fashion......  

Guess the forward P/E of US stocks at 50 odd wouldn't have had anything to do with it!


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