# CSR - CSR Limited



## mista200 (1 August 2005)

*CSR time for a rise?*

Stockbroker suggested to me CSR as having excellent long term prospects especially now with the price he thought to be rather low. What do you think of the current price?


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## chicken (2 August 2005)

*Re: CSR time for a rise?*



			
				mista200 said:
			
		

> Stockbroker suggested to me CSR as having excellent long term prospects especially now with the price he thought to be rather low. What do you think of the current price?



Fort a long term hold yes as their Aluminim division looks promising...one of the stocks with good dividends....Cheap ?,,but pretty safe..not one which will set the stock price on fire...so you must decide which upside you want...but good stock otherwise..one to park your money on.....but for swings better upside elsewhere


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## noirua (13 February 2006)

CSR are now being driven by the sugar price, having been held back by the same product for many years. Ethanol, is now one of the ways to reduce dependancy on the Middle-East, and CSR is now one of the leaders in the field.

So this laggard, that suffered the indignity of being thrown out of the ASX 50, are now hammering the door down to get back in.

More speculative now than since its mining days of the 1970's and 80's, CSR are now aiming for the top slot once again.

How times change, as most said " get rid of the sugar assets " and they nearly did. Now CSR are rapidly looking to expand sugar production and are heading for $5.00 a share.


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## michael_selway (13 February 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> CSR are now being driven by the sugar price, having been held back by the same product for many years. Ethanol, is now one of the ways to reduce dependancy on the Middle-East, and CSR is now one of the leaders in the field.
> 
> So this laggard, that suffered the indignity of being thrown out of the ASX 50, are now hammering the door down to get back in.
> 
> ...




Yep, its getting more and more speculative now, nearly totally correlated with the Sugar Price, yet its only 15% of their business and Hedged?

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3416

How do u justify $5+ a share?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 21.9 26.7 28.5 28.9 
DPS 12.0 13.0 14.0 14.0

http://216.223.46.50/nybotlive-dela...idth=180&TableRuleColor=999999&BGColor=003466


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## noirua (13 February 2006)

How can I justify $5 for CSR?

Well, IMHO, it's a matter of the stock having been far too cheap in the first place, and we are in booming markets with speculators looking to jump on the next Jam tomorrow stock.


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## noirua (23 February 2006)

Ethanol may be bigger for CSR than anyone expects :-

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=7&id=3602&setSub=1


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## noirua (8 March 2006)

The appointment of Mr Ian Glasson, as CEO of the " Ethanol Biofuel Operations " confims CSR's expansion plans. Sugar interests are close to 40% of CSR's trading and should quickly rise to 60%.

Hopefully the recent fall in the shareprice is only temporary and the Sugar/Ethanol plans will push CSR on to the next bull phase.


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## michael_selway (9 March 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> The appointment of Mr Ian Glasson, as CEO of the " Ethanol Biofuel Operations " confims CSR's expansion plans. Sugar interests are close to 40% of CSR's trading and should quickly rise to 60%.
> 
> Hopefully the recent fall in the shareprice is only temporary and the Sugar/Ethanol plans will push CSR on to the next bull phase.




Hi intersting, sugar 40% of business now? it used to be 15% not that long ago!

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3416

"Credit Suisse warns that although everything looks rosy – sugar is strong, aluminium is strong, and more property sales are on the cards – there’s a real danger in attempting to capitalise record commodity prices. The CSR share price is presently 95% correlated with the sugar price, yet sugar milling represents 15% of CSR’s business. CSR is very fortunate to have hit record prices at a time when building construction has waned"

on there it says 15%? maybe its changed since then?

Thanks

MS


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## noirua (24 March 2006)

Confidence should continue to grow as bioethanol increases in use. The UK announced yesterday that they plan to increase use to 5% and we know already that President Bush is pushing the States in the same direction. Hopefully CSR will push on for quite a number of years in the future.


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## michael_selway (25 March 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Confidence should continue to grow as bioethanol increases in use. The UK announced yesterday that they plan to increase use to 5% and we know already that President Bush is pushing the States in the same direction. Hopefully CSR will push on for quite a number of years in the future.




CSR also have aluminium, not sure if that can continue to rise in the next few yrs as LME supplies are increasing?







although nymex is dropping in the last month


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## noirua (29 March 2006)

CSR are continuing their remarkable climb dragging the analysts in its wake. At $4.40 they may yet reach the $5.00 level on the back of its ethanol interests.


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## noirua (31 March 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> CSR are continuing their remarkable climb dragging the analysts in its wake. At $4.40 they may yet reach the $5.00 level on the back of its ethanol interests.




Yes indeed, bioethanol is one of the much needed fuels. CSR have signed a major contract to supply ethanol to BP Australia. 

http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060331/pdf/3w3x37ck40dc5.pdf


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## michael_selway (31 March 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Yes indeed, bioethanol is one of the much needed fuels. CSR have signed a major contract to supply ethanol to BP Australia.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060331/pdf/3w3x37ck40dc5.pdf




Yes they appear to be very good now

thx

MS


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## Fab (3 April 2006)

"Yes indeed, bioethanol is one of the much needed fuels"

I agree with this statement too but CSR want done heavily today. Can anyone explain why ?


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## Fab (4 April 2006)

price down again. Can anyone give me a reason why except maybe profit taking


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## noirua (4 April 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> price down again. Can anyone give me a reason why except maybe profit taking




Looking at the six monthly chart of CSR, provided by ASX, the movement is very much in line with the way the companies stock has traded over that period. The oil price remains within a few dollars of US$70 per barrel.


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## michael_selway (4 April 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> price down again. Can anyone give me a reason why except maybe profit taking









CSR will only do well if sugar prices sky rocket

sugar prices will only sky rocket if Oil prices sky rocket, atm $US70 a barrel appaears to be a huge resistance for Oil, as US supplies increase

http://www.nybot.com (live sugar prices)

thx

MS


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## finnsk (5 April 2006)

Having a cakeshop, the cost that I buy my sugar for is going up by 50% in the next week or two, think that will have some affect on CSR share price  

finnsk


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## noirua (14 April 2006)

CSR will receive $93 million, after litigation costs, from some of the insurers of over the roof claims on asbestos. A further sum is expected if litigation is successful against Ace insurers.


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## noirua (24 April 2006)

" ETHANOL "

http://ethanol.e85flex.com/ethanol/main.html?q=ethanol,bioethanol,ethanol fuel


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## noirua (10 May 2006)

Ethanol is strongly in the news in the States as supplies dwindle and they look to other countries to help back up supplies while 15 new plants are built. Ethanol prices have spiked.

CSR are moving strongly into the bioethanol market.


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## Fab (10 May 2006)

After losing some ground in the last few weeks. I guess you are right Noirua Ethanol interest is getting some more coverage as oil price remains strong and appears like  they are not going to fall tomorrow. In the last couple of days CSR closed above the $4 and is currently trading above the $4.15. This is a very good sign as well as Full year result due on the 15/05 which I reckon will be very positive. Keep an eye on CSR I reckon.


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## noirua (10 May 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> After losing some ground in the last few weeks. I guess you are right Noirua Ethanol interest is getting some more coverage as oil price remains strong and appears like  they are not going to fall tomorrow. In the last couple of days CSR closed above the $4 and is currently trading above the $4.15. This is a very good sign as well as Full year result due on the 15/05 which I reckon will be very positive. Keep an eye on CSR I reckon.




Yes, I have to agree that ethanol may move this stock on strongly and the $5 level may yet be reached long before the end of 2006.


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## Fab (11 May 2006)

Yep that is why I am holding too and the annual result are coming on the 17/05. It closed today above 4.20 which is very good uptrend sign


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## noirua (15 May 2006)

Flex-Fuel cars do appear to be the answer and the way ahead for CSR:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=1938027&page=1

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5829046


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## noirua (15 May 2006)

Barclays Group ( through BGIA ) have increased their holding in CSR from 8.25% to 9.45%.


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## Fab (15 May 2006)

Thanks Noirua. I believe this makes sense what is happening in Brazil and if Ethanol is so price effective and environmentally friendly why not do it in Australia as well. Good thing for sure for the share price of CSR if we are going to go that way. Now that raise the question are they any small caps involved in Ethanol production or research are these shares are likely to go up as well.


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## noirua (16 May 2006)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12754620/from/RS5/


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## Fab (16 May 2006)

CSR is annoucing its annual report tomorrow , I am expecting a good result and a strong gain (hopefully)


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## noirua (16 May 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> CSR is annoucing its annual report tomorrow , I am expecting a good result and a strong gain (hopefully)




The Annual Report should be very good.  I'm not quite sure what the market is expecting though.


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## noirua (17 May 2006)

Preliminary Final Report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060517/pdf/3ws73vrp71v94.pdf


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## noirua (24 May 2006)

Added some CSR to my holding this morning, looking good after recent falls.


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## michael_selway (24 May 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Added some CSR to my holding this morning, looking good after recent falls.




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 27.4 29.5 32.0 31.9 
DPS 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 29.5 12.3 7.7% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 32.0 11.3 8.5% 

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=63A67789-3048-5296-A2221B0A43B65722



> Nothing new under the sun here as Vicky has been making this call for a few months now.
> 
> But signs she's correct in this view are increasing. The main supporting argument to her view is the continued growth of Chinese alumina production, up 51% year on year according to the latest data.
> 
> ...


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## Fab (25 May 2006)

CSR is holding well today in good volume. Look out when the market sentiment changes


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## noirua (1 June 2006)

I intend to top up again this morning in CSR shares as they have slipped to $3.58. Hopefully the expansion by CSR will be shown to be as good as the three companies below.

New York has flared up again in the ETHANOL sector as Hawkeye Holdings files to raise US$350 million for development. This marks the third deal in the sector after Verasun and Aventine Renewable Energy. A third ethanol plant will be opened in 2006 and a fourth in 2007; Hawkeye buys corn and converts this to Ethanol.

Link at: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/G9DBGlVFH1RJm24ssxFs1sB?siteid=mktw&dist=TNMostMailed


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## michael_selway (1 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> I intend to top up again this morning in CSR shares as they have slipped to $3.58. Hopefully the expansion by CSR will be shown to be as good as the three companies below.
> 
> New York has flared up again in the ETHANOL sector as Hawkeye Holdings files to raise US$350 million for development. This marks the third deal in the sector after Verasun and Aventine Renewable Energy. A third ethanol plant will be opened in 2006 and a fourth in 2007; Hawkeye buys corn and converts this to Ethanol.
> 
> Link at: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/G9DBGlVFH1RJm24ssxFs1sB?siteid=mktw&dist=TNMostMailed




Yeah its approaching fair value (forward PE of 10 or 10% return pa)

CSR - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
... 2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 27.4 29.8 32.8 33.5 
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.7 

thx

MS


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## Fab (1 June 2006)

High volume today on CSR sounds like a lot of people might think this stock has become a bargain. :


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## mista200 (1 June 2006)

Yep gonna top up tommorow!


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## noirua (1 June 2006)

Merrill Lynch upgraded CSR Limited to Buy in early May at $3.87. ML were impressed by the raising of the 2007 profits forecast to $292 million from $258 million.

Http://www.mysharetrading.com/2006/05/04/merrill-lynch-csr-ltd-csr-recommendation.htm


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## michael_selway (1 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Merrill Lynch upgraded CSR Limited to Buy in early May at $3.87. ML were impressed by the raising of the 2007 profits forecast to $292 million from $258 million.
> 
> Http://www.mysharetrading.com/2006/05/04/merrill-lynch-csr-ltd-csr-recommendation.htm




yeah, theres about 912.29 million CSr shares, so;

3.87/912.29 = 0.32 = 32 EPS

current consesnsus is 29 EPS for 2007 ist only 10% improvement but not much. Also look at 2008/2009 very little growth left? what did ML say about 2008/2009 profit forecast?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 27.4 29.8 32.8 33.5 
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.7 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 29.8 12.0 8.8% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 32.8 10.9 10.1% 

thx

MS


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## sangshim (2 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> yeah, theres about 912.29 million CSr shares, so;
> 
> 3.87/912.29 = 0.32 = 32 EPS
> 
> ...



Aren't you supposed to divide the profit by the no of shares rather than share price by the no of shares?


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## michael_selway (2 June 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> Aren't you supposed to divide the profit by the no of shares rather than share price by the no of shares?




Yeah typo sorry!

292/912.29 = 0.32 = 32 EPS


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## michael_selway (16 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Merrill Lynch upgraded CSR Limited to Buy in early May at $3.87. ML were impressed by the raising of the 2007 profits forecast to $292 million from $258 million.
> 
> Http://www.mysharetrading.com/2006/05/04/merrill-lynch-csr-ltd-csr-recommendation.htm




The fall in Aluminium pirce (increasing LME suppllies) will hurt CSR's EPS







Sugar also down to 15c a pound (beacuse OIl price hasnt skyrocketed

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 27.4 29.8 33.6 33.5 
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.7 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 29.8 11.2 8.8% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 33.6 9.9 12.8% 


thx

MS


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## noirua (19 June 2006)

Fungal disease hits CSR sugar prospects: http://thecouriermail.news.com.au/story/0,20797,19509912-3122,00.html


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## noirua (22 June 2006)

Reports on Bloomberg, about increased sugar prices and their likely impact on CSR, improves the outlook after some negative press lately.


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## noirua (27 June 2006)

Prospects remain good for the biggest Aussie in Ethanol as CSR develops its new plant.


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## noirua (5 July 2006)

M & G Investment Management ( owned by Prudential Group, UK ) have increased their substantial holding in CSR from 6.01% to 7.09%.


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## noirua (11 July 2006)

CSR begin their buy-back period on 26th July 06 and complete on 25th July 07. The intention is to buy-back 45,818,466 shares - 5% of shares in issue.


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## noirua (12 July 2006)

$3.53 as CSR regain confidence. The buy-back and the strong price of oil should give the stock a real bio-ethanol bounce.


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## noirua (14 July 2006)

CSR appear to be neither a building stock or a resources stock, with prospects for building and ethanol creating a push and pull situation. Should hold their ground well and prove a solid hold, with ethanol prospects set to give CSR a more bullish tone in turbulent markets.


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## noirua (29 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> $3.53 as CSR regain confidence. The buy-back and the strong price of oil should give the stock a real bio-ethanol bounce.




No bio-ethanol bounce, as many companies are struggling to make a profit, so far. The buy-back has just started and should give a much needed floor to the share price.


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## Fab (29 July 2006)

What is the interest of participating in CSR buy back ??


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## noirua (3 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> No bio-ethanol bounce, as many companies are struggling to make a profit, so far. The buy-back has just started and should give a much needed floor to the share price.




 The buy-back continues, nearly 500,000 shares a day, so far. Have bought a few more shares despite having read this one wrong recently. Why the stock has fallen back so far surprises me, hope there's not something I'm missing.


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## noirua (6 September 2006)

$3.31 this morning as CSR appear to be recovering.


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## michael_selway (9 September 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> $3.31 this morning as CSR appear to be recovering.




Approaching fair value, or fwd terminal PE of 10, about $3.10

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 27.4 29.7 31.5 31.3 
DPS 15.0 17.0 18.0 19.9 * 

thx

MS


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## dutchie (9 September 2006)

Nothing flash there Michael.

Yield of about 5-6%.

Cheers

Dutchie


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## barney (9 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Approaching fair value, or fwd terminal PE of 10, about $3.10
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...





I'm only new here and still a beginner with charts etc. but I figure if I put my opinions out there for people to judge, then it is kinda putting my money where my mouth is so to speak 

Here goes: I think the chart on CSR looks to give a hint of possible reverse  I like the rate of change (price) spiking off the bottom on good volumes and the ADM (negative) Index starting a downturn. Also the Bollinger curve has "opened its mouth" with an initial downturn. From what I read, this initial downturn is often a "false" signal with the sp often reversing Yesterday's sp did reverse a little (Monday or Tuesday will probably tell the story better) 
I reckon CSR back to $3.15 before end of next week (unless of course the market in general fails)

Any comments from you guys who are way more experienced than I am, as to whether I am making sense, and/or are there other factors I should be looking at to give me a better assessment??  Cheers to all


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## Porper (9 September 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> I'm only new here and still a beginner with charts etc. but I figure if I put my opinions out there for people to judge, then it is kinda putting my money where my mouth is so to speak
> 
> Here goes: I think the chart on CSR looks to give a hint of possible reverse  I like the rate of change (price) spiking off the bottom on good volumes and the ADM (negative) Index starting a downturn. Also the Bollinger curve has "opened its mouth" with an initial downturn. From what I read, this initial downturn is often a "false" signal with the sp often reversing Yesterday's sp did reverse a little (Monday or Tuesday will probably tell the story better)
> I reckon CSR back to $3.15 before end of next week (unless of course the market in general fails)
> ...




First of all I am no expert on indiators, although I believe we can always find a indicator that suits what we "want" to see.

MACD is showing positive divergence, yet Money flow isn't.I prefer price action, and that is plain to see.

Thursday had a big down day on huge volume, finishing the day almost on the lows.Friday as you say had even larger volume but finished the day in the mid range for the day, also it is a very tight range which to me implies that there are still a lot of sellers around, selling into the attempted bounce from the day before.

Also, it has broken down from the channel since June, another bearish sign.

Monday will probably be positive for the ASX as the DOW had a good over night rise, but if I had to pick, I would have to slant towards a slight re-test of the old channel, then a strong down move.

My win percentage is less than 50%, so what would I know.


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## barney (9 September 2006)

Porper said:
			
		

> First of all I am no expert on indiators, although I believe we can always find a indicator that suits what we "want" to see.
> 
> MACD is showing positive divergence, yet Money flow isn't.I prefer price action, and that is plain to see.
> 
> ...





Thanks  Porper for your analysis. I am trying to digest all you have said. As I say I am still learning, so I'll take what youve said on board and keep watching over the next few days to try and put some order into what happens. I appreciate what you say about the "tight range" for friday, but perhaps this would be expected after such a large drop the day before (the fact that it recovered at all kinda says to me that there is a "possibility" a quick reversal???...just guessing) 
I see what you mean about the bearish drop since June (missed that).......I remember reading somewhere about always look at the "bigger picture." I guess that sooner or later the bearish drop will hopefully reverse, (stocks "usually" dont go down forever....touch wood) I guess I am looking more short term at the CSR chart (trading as opposed to investing) Thanks again, Barney
PS Which money flow indicator is the best to use?? (I've heard Twiggs is good)


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## Porper (10 September 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> Thanks  Porper for your analysis. I am trying to digest all you have said. As I say I am still learning, so I'll take what youve said on board and keep watching over the next few days to try and put some order into what happens. I appreciate what you say about the "tight range" for friday, but perhaps this would be expected after such a large drop the day before (the fact that it recovered at all kinda says to me that there is a "possibility" a quick reversal???...just guessing)
> I see what you mean about the bearish drop since June (missed that).......I remember reading somewhere about always look at the "bigger picture." I guess that sooner or later the bearish drop will hopefully reverse, (stocks "usually" dont go down forever....touch wood) I guess I am looking more short term at the CSR chart (trading as opposed to investing) Thanks again, Barney
> PS Which money flow indicator is the best to use?? (I've heard Twiggs is good)




Barney,

I use Twiggs money flow as I use incredible charts, also this indicator takes into account gaps, where as the Chaikin doesn't.I use it quite a bit and find it to be correct more often than not (for type A divergence.) For trend reversals, you can use RSI, MACD or the slow stochastic, they should give more or less the same results.

Like I said though I am not a great believer in indicators, and they can contradict each other quite a bit.After practice you can look at a chart and get the picture without needing indicators that much in my view.


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## barney (10 September 2006)

Porper said:
			
		

> Barney,
> 
> I use Twiggs money flow as I use incredible charts, also this indicator takes into account gaps, where as the Chaikin doesn't.I use it quite a bit and find it to be correct more often than not (for type A divergence.) For trend reversals, you can use RSI, MACD or the slow stochastic, they should give more or less the same results.
> 
> Like I said though I am not a great believer in indicators, and they can contradict each other quite a bit.After practice you can look at a chart and get the picture without needing indicators that much in my view.




Thanks Porper, I hear others say the same thing re "getting the picture" without too much emphasis on indicators......I guess I am trying to get some "reassurance" from the chart to back up the gut feelings (unfortunately my "gut" can be a little off colour at times......) 

Re CSR....I was reading last night that sugar is down 25% this year ...CSR still made good profit overall but down on expectations..........so I guess that could have more bearing on the sp than anything.......Working on that scenario I think your longer term "bearish" outlook seems more likely........might have to retract my opinion of CSR being up by the end of the week!!! Mon or Tues should give a clearer short term pic.  Cheers.


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## noirua (13 September 2006)

CSR Ethanol Expansion Celebration of Sarina Distillery. Cost $15 million and will produce an extra 32 million litres of fuel grade ethanol. CSR received a Federal Grant of $4.2 million and a Queensland grant of $250,000:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060904/pdf/3y968m8497n0v.pdf


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## Fab (19 September 2006)

When are CSR results due? I thought all results had been announced but I can not see anything about it.


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## noirua (6 October 2006)

M & G Investments have announced a substantial holding - 5.09% - in CSR Limited. 44,850,000 shares, purchased between 11th July and 27th Sept 06.


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## Ken (6 October 2006)

my take on CSR is:

csr are a quality company. price of sugar has dropped significantly since its highs.  Not the worst time to get in on them i wouldnt think.

Pays good Dividends always a bonus.

i dont know if they will get back to $2.80 range, but even at $3.10 they are slightly undervalued.

thats just my view.  i am probably wrong.


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## daaussie (9 October 2006)

from $4.50 to its lows of $2.80. Now back up to $3.10 so quickly. Will it go back to $4.50?
i bought in at 3.12/


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## Ken (9 October 2006)

How long do you plan on holding?

as 3-5 year stock at current prices with the current dividend forecast i think it offers good exposure to an alternative fuel source.

Whether it hits old highs price of sugar will have a jor impact i would have thought


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## daaussie (16 October 2006)

i intend to hold 3-6months unless the stock has a major development as far as ethanol goes.
also with their dividends its pretty good price right now.
just now at 10am 16 Oct the stock is rallying at 3.12 mark. We should see if it goes to 3.20 soon...


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## Fab (18 October 2006)

Yep. CSR keeps on going up and up and up


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## noirua (18 October 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Yep. CSR keeps on going up and up and up




Looks very positive now after the collapse from over $4.00 not that many moons ago - sugar price had quite a bit to do with that.


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## Kauri (21 October 2006)

Don't want to jinx CSR but I'm still waiting for her to retrace back into my buying zone...   :hide:


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## noirua (23 October 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Don't want to jinx CSR but I'm still waiting for her to retrace back into my buying zone...   :hide:





Will be interesting to see if you get the chance. Predictions are bullish for the ASX, once the interest announcement is out of the way midweek. As you know, CSR are continuing their buy-back that is helping the CSR stock price.

Eyes are on the sugar price and whether CSR are able to get their Ethanol Plant running up to expectations this year.

Your chart does show that CSR have broken out of the top of the recent range and only bad news or a market set-back is likely to put it back to the bottom of your buying area.


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## daaussie (23 October 2006)

I sold my CSR at 3.19 only to see it rise to 3.27 the next day. damnit. Anyhow I don't understand why companies like csr buy back their own shares. Is it to increase the value of the company, ie each shareholder actually owns more of the company and gets more profit and hence dividend?
I invested my dollars into IDL which appears to be a great business with great growth potential and profit for its price!


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## noirua (23 October 2006)

daaussie said:
			
		

> I sold my CSR at 3.19 only to see it rise to 3.27 the next day. damnit. Anyhow I don't understand why companies like csr buy back their own shares. Is it to increase the value of the company, ie each shareholder actually owns more of the company and gets more profit and hence dividend?
> I invested my dollars into IDL which appears to be a great business with great growth potential and profit for its price!




Hi daaussie, companies always say that they can see no better investment than their own shares. You are right about the profit and dividends as well. Companies sometimes have second thoughts along the way and the buy-back starts to stall a bit, though CSR'S seems quite solid.

Industria Limited is on the up and looks an excellent choice, no thread on ASF yet - Good Luck.


----------



## Fab (23 October 2006)

I almost sold my CSR at $3 when they went down after announcing they would not meet their profit target. I am actually surprised they are rising quite strongly as all the so call specialists appeared to say that there was better value elsewhere. I am quite happy to hold and at least wait for the dividend


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## GreatPig (4 November 2006)

After a bit of consolidation over the last few days, CSR looks like it might be about to start another leg up.

$3.50-ish could be the next resistance level.

Cheers,
GP


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## noirua (5 November 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> After a bit of consolidation over the last few days, CSR looks like it might be about to start another leg up.
> 
> $3.50-ish could be the next resistance level.
> 
> ...




The annoucement of a new MD for CSR, Mr Jerry Maycott, seems to have been greeted well by the market:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061102/pdf/3zdj6437b6f7c.pdf


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## Fab (5 November 2006)

Even before the annoucement of the new MD CSR started its recovery. After losing a fair bit and going under the $3 mark after annoucing their forecast result. This one is a slow achiever compare to all the resources stocks that are booming.
Good to have in portfolio


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## GreatPig (8 November 2006)

The report's not being taken too well.

Down more than 6% at the moment.

GP


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## noirua (8 November 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> The report's not being taken too well.
> 
> Down more than 6% at the moment.
> 
> GP




This link shows the problems for CSR in the building and sugar related sector:  http://au.biz.yahoo.com/061107/19/ynfa.html

I have sold immediately as the bearish report looks very negative for CSR.


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## daaussie (13 November 2006)

Hi I read the yahoo reference, but my stock broking firm recommends a buy and places CSR at $4, plus the sunday mail this weekend recommended it as a buy. The other thing to consider is the 6 cent dividend to go ex-dividend this week! not much but a little sweetner.


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## Kauri (20 November 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Don't want to jinx CSR but I'm still waiting for her to retrace back into my buying zone... :hide:




    As per post/chart #71, looking for positive price and vol for possible entry


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## Kauri (18 December 2006)

Well, we got the price/vol entry we wanted, expecting a Wii retracement soon.
( at 3.60 so far today)


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## noirua (18 December 2006)

daaussie said:
			
		

> Hi I read the yahoo reference, but my stock broking firm recommends a buy and places CSR at $4, plus the sunday mail this weekend recommended it as a buy. The other thing to consider is the 6 cent dividend to go ex-dividend this week! not much but a little sweetner.





Yes, and the possible break-up mentioned gives some spice to this one, despite the sugar price tumble upsetting the apple cart. Options MAY be profitable here for GAMBLERS in the short term.


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## noirua (20 December 2006)

More good news for the CSR share price as Bloomberg report that CSR are in the top companies in their takeover list in Aus for 2007. Settlement of litigation against Ace Insurers will add $103 million to the companies accounts. A must have for 2007 are CSR, IMHO.


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## noirua (22 December 2006)

Going well today are CSR as a possible bid/break-up and Litigation pay out put a sports engine in the clapped out wagon.


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## noirua (27 December 2006)

Heading back closer to the $4.00 target this morning at $3.85. Probably on break-up and bid speculation, and that $103 million sweetner.


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## Kauri (29 December 2006)

At an interesting stage now, a fall below 3.50 will change my outlook.


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## noirua (3 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> At an interesting stage now, a fall below 3.50 will change my outlook.




Yes quite interesting as CSR hold their price, $3.74, in strong trading today. A fall to $3.50 would change all this, as you say, though I'm looking up to $4.00 and not down at $3.50.


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## Kauri (3 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Yes quite interesting as CSR hold their price, $3.74, in strong trading today. A fall to $3.50 would change all this, as you say, though I'm looking up to $4.00 and not down at $3.50.




   Noirua.
             Hi, are you still holding? I,ve been looking for 4.20ish since buying in, but am also aware that a fall below 3.50 will invalidate my trade. I like to know where to cut and run..   
             Cheers
                      Kauri


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## noirua (3 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Noirua.
> Hi, are you still holding? I,ve been looking for 4.20ish since buying in, but am also aware that a fall below 3.50 will invalidate my trade. I like to know where to cut and run..
> Cheers
> Kauri




Bought options in mid-December with price at $3.46, holding at present.


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## noirua (9 January 2007)

Holding up well are CSR at $3.65 and hopefully we'll see a rise towards $4.00 and not the forecast of $3.50. I think this, because CSR are likely to be broken up sometime, despite CSR saying it won't happen this year and that $103 million cash windfall from legal matters keeps this stock looking good - and the takeover rumours are still around - despite sugar worries etc., Hopefully options were the right gamble on this one.


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## Kauri (9 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Holding up well are CSR at $3.65 and hopefully we'll see a rise towards $4.00 and not the forecast of $3.50. .




  Hi Noirua..
                Yes, good to see my *stop* @ 3.50 has held up so far during the retrace from 3.89 to 3.53.    By the way, do you have a stop on your options?


----------



## noirua (9 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Hi Noirua..
> Yes, good to see my *stop* @ 3.50 has held up so far during the retrace from 3.89 to 3.53.    By the way, do you have a stop on your options?




  No!


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## TheRage (9 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Hi Noirua..
> Yes, good to see my *stop* @ 3.50 has held up so far during the retrace from 3.89 to 3.53.    By the way, do you have a stop on your options?




I couldn't believe the intraday range the other day when it dropped to 3.53. It certainly seems to be holding today. Interesting that you guys think CSR might split this year. Fundamentally this would make sense. Infact if CSR concentrated on Sugar and tapped into the Brazilian market I would get very exicited about this stock.


----------



## noirua (15 January 2007)

TheRage said:
			
		

> I couldn't believe the intraday range the other day when it dropped to 3.53. It certainly seems to be holding today. Interesting that you guys think CSR might split this year. Fundamentally this would make sense. Infact if CSR concentrated on Sugar and tapped into the Brazilian market I would get very exicited about this stock.




Up this morning to $3.69 which puts me well into plus territory. Speculation could be a good thing for this stock whether it's break up or takeover speculation. If the ASX stays strong then we may see more from CSR.


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## TheRage (15 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Up this morning to $3.69 which puts me well into plus territory. Speculation could be a good thing for this stock whether it's break up or takeover speculation. If the ASX stays strong then we may see more from CSR.




Precisely what I am hoping for.


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## Kauri (17 January 2007)

Still looking for 4.20 area, bit of a pause at recent high, hope it won't prove too difficult to overcome.


----------



## noirua (17 January 2007)

Hi everyone, Nice bounce to $3.85 this morning should make the oppie investors well happy. 

Question now is, whether to bow out? Any views on CSR at this level?

Hi Kauri, you beat me by a few minutes on that post, thanks for the chart - Good Luck


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## noirua (17 January 2007)

Just hit $3.96 and getting nervous as my profits build up. With previous rumours of a bid or break-up, maybe, just maybe, it's just about to hit us, one or the other that is.


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## Fab (17 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Just hit $3.96 and getting nervous as my profits build up. With previous rumours of a bid or break-up, maybe, just maybe, it's just about to hit us, one or the other that is.



Does anyone know if they are rumours of CSR being a takeover target as this would explain the rise


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## TheRage (17 January 2007)

I haven't heard any rumours yet but an article in the age the other day suggested CSR would be likely target. I am new to charting but I agree with Kauri chart. I am holding for now as this company is still fundamentally strong and hope the rumours continue.


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## noirua (17 January 2007)

I'm out of this one. Good luck to everyone, hope you make a fortune.
Too far, too fast.


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## Buster (17 January 2007)

Hey Kauri,


			
				Kauri (at 0803) said:
			
		

> Still looking for 4.20 area, bit of a pause at recent high, hope it won't prove too difficult to overcome.



Wow.. what a call, and they've smashed up .27c today.. I must persist in learning to analyse charts. I'm hopeless at it but it seems when you know what you are doing (as you obviousy do!!) it can pay off quite nicely.

I bought at the end of last year for 2.84 (fluke) and was not entirely happy with my assessment, but went with the gut feeling in the end.. Even Mugs get lucky sometimes..  

Regards,

Buster


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## noirua (17 January 2007)

ASX: Dow Jones Release  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070117/pdf/310jw01tfgqkls.pdf


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## TheRage (17 January 2007)

She's all over the shop at the moment. It's gone as high as 4.02 then down to 3.78 and now back on the climb. This volatility makes me sick in the guts.


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## TheRage (17 January 2007)

UPDATE 1-CSR says not aware of bid, shares retreat

Wednesday January 17, 2007, 12:15 pm



(Adds details, fund manager comment)

SYDNEY, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Australia's top sugar producer CSR Ltd. (ASX: CSR.ax) said it was not aware of any bid for the company, sending its shares into retreat after they surged more than 9 percent on market talk of a private equity takeover.

ADVERTISEMENT


"We are not aware of any impending takeover bid for the company," CSR said in a statement to the stock exchange.

The stock had risen as much as 9.2 percent to A$4.02 on talk of an offer at A$4.30 per share as soon as Wednesday afternoon, but by 0105 GMT had pulled back to A$3.79.

Private equity funds stepped up their investments in the Australian market last year, chasing underperforming companies and those with low debts, with more bids expected this year.

CSR, which also makes aluminium, bricks and roof tiles, has been talked about as an attractive candidate for private equity investors.

"There is potential there for (a bid) to happen because it has various assets. It potentially is a candidate," said Robert Hook, a fund manager with S.G. Hiscock & Co.

CSR Chief Executive Alec Brennan said in November that the feverish level of private equity activity in Australia could spur a break-up, although it was not the right time to sell.

He said then that CSR was constantly looking at opportunities to sell off parts of the company to improve value to shareholders, as it did when it spun off its heavy building materials arm as Rinker Group Ltd. (ASX: RIN.ax) .


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## Kauri (17 January 2007)

Well either the *smart money* knows better and/or the *punters* don't believe or care about the Co's denial. The only thing that has changed for mine is that the freely circulating rumour is now out in the open. Unless things change dramatically I am still looking *initially* for the 4.20's.  :hide:   Still expect the recent high to be an obstacle... (temporary I hope)..


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## TheRage (17 January 2007)

I don't know whether Perpetual know something or not but they just realised an anouncement where they bought 10,000,000 shares or another 1% of the company. They now own 6% in CSR. They seem to have knack at buying big positions just before takeovers. Things are starting to get interesting. No doubt their buying is the reason for some of the price rise.


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## noirua (19 January 2007)

I'm not in CSR anymore, however, this may be of interest:  http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4855&setSub=1


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## noirua (5 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> I'm not in CSR anymore, however, this may be of interest:  http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4855&setSub=1




CSR have fallen back to trade at just $3.59. Before I consider getting back in again. I wondered if anyone had further views on the break-up that was discussed or whether the previously aired takeover report is now gone.


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## Seneca60BC (5 February 2007)

what is your time frame? 1 month or 12 months?


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## Kauri (26 February 2007)

Maybe starting into a 5th leg.... if so 4.20's still looking OK


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## Goldbug (3 March 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Maybe starting into a 5th leg.... if so 4.20's still looking OK




It will be interesting to see on Monday if it holds the $3.60 support after the washup in overseas markets. mmm.. at least sugar prices were up.


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## UMike (28 March 2007)

This one might get tasty soon.

$3.49 and falling.


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## TheAbyss (29 March 2007)

Had an interesting conversatioon yesterday regarding a new sugar refining method which makes it safe for diabetics to use. Does anyone know anything about this?

This could potentially increase sugar sales. What impact the artifical sweetener manufacturers?


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## noirua (11 April 2007)

Time for me to dive back into CSR as comments around the Rinker Group have spilled over into conversation about the original split from CSR Limited. The shares and options are, weeeeelllllllllllllllllll, very interesting, I would say.


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## noirua (12 April 2007)

noirua said:


> Time for me to dive back into CSR as comments around the Rinker Group have spilled over into conversation about the original split from CSR Limited. The shares and options are, weeeeelllllllllllllllllll, very interesting, I would say.




After the fall back just after I bought I'm starting to wonder now.


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## noirua (16 April 2007)

Talk in "The Australian" today, speaks about a possible private buyout or bid for CSR.


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## noirua (18 April 2007)

CSR are up to $3.82 this morning after the publicity surrounding their siamese twin, Rinker Group.  M & G Investments have again raised their substantial holding. CSR, at last, have a rosy look about them.


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## noirua (18 April 2007)

So far, so good and CSR finish up 12 cents at $3.91. Hopefully I've managed to time my re-entry perfectly this time in both shares and options, time will tell. 

Is this price movement due to previous rumours of a break-up getting closer?  Is there really an interested party about to make a move?  Is it just because of the Rinker factor that CSR are gaining ground?


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## TheRage (19 April 2007)

I think Sp rise yesterday mainly due to a company increasing it's holdings from 5-6% forgotten name already. I have been in and out of CSR twice already this year. I bought back in most recently at 3.49 and I think fundamentally there is some steam left in this one although most brokers give it a 12 month price target of 3.70. Discounted cash flow techniques employed have given me a target a bit higher tha nthis but I have als factored in the breakup factor. I hope CSR sell off their buildings and aluminium divisions and focus on Sugar and ethanol. This would make me very happy. Chart wise there seems to be a bit of a side trending pattern happening. If it breaks through $4 we might be in for some good times but unfortunately earnings alone won't do this. We need more takeover rumours or the real thing happening.


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## noirua (11 May 2007)

Interesting as M & G increase their stake in CSR to 10.16%. This would give them a strong position in a takeover situation where the predator requires 90% of the stock.


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## noirua (21 May 2007)

CSR traded at $3.53 at the close. Trading reached nearly 8 million shares and the recent lacklustre results have brought back market thoughts of a break-up or buyout.


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## TheRage (22 May 2007)

I have been holding CSR since they were high $2 hoping that one day another company would see the value in breaking up the three divisions. Personally sugar and aluminium have about as much in common as hitler and mother theresa. For this reason CSR flounders. What started off as a diversification approach by thinking when sugar prices are low aluminium or building products would offset the falls. Personally I like when companies sell one product becaues the cycles present so much more opportunity than the flat earnings effect of diworsification. I still hold CSR purely on the buyout factor and nothing else.


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## bumble_boo_bum (22 May 2007)

TheRage said:


> I have been holding CSR since they were high $2 hoping that one day another company would see the value in breaking up the three divisions. Personally sugar and aluminium have about as much in common as hitler and mother theresa. For this reason CSR flounders. What started off as a diversification approach by thinking when sugar prices are low aluminium or building products would offset the falls. Personally I like when companies sell one product becaues the cycles present so much more opportunity than the flat earnings effect of diworsification. I still hold CSR purely on the buyout factor and nothing else.




Hitler and Mother Theresa have more in common than you think.  Read Christopher Hitchens book about her - The Missionary Position - Mother Theresa in Theory and Practice.  Taking money from despot dictators - refusing to clean needles properly when using them on the sick.  

The following are some excerpts from an article by Norman Taylor on the book in which he gives some eye-opening details from the book:

"Mother Teresa has been favoured with huge sums of money during the past 30 years, but patient illnesses have been wrongly diagnosed by unqualified sisters and volunteers who are unable to distinguish between the curable and incurable. Mother Teresa prefers providence to planning, and the very strictest economy is always enforced, much to the detriment of the patients' interests. It is interesting to note that despite the enormous sums involved ($ 50 million remains in an account in Bronx) needles are used over and over again and are rinsed under the cold water tap. The nuns answer to "why are you not boiling water and sterilising your needles?" was simple: "There's no point. There's no time." Perhaps, the patients take too long to die, and hastening death saves money. Cynical as that may be, Mother Teresa's global income is more than enough to equip several first class clinics like some of the finest in the West that she herself has checked into. To a person in the last agonies of cancer, and suffering unbearable pain, she said with a smile: "You are suffering like Christ on the cross. So Jesus must be kissing you." A sign on the wall of the morgue of Mother Teresa's Home for the Dying reads "I am going to Heaven today".


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## TheRage (22 May 2007)

While an interesting correction to my anology perhaps not really adding any value to the discussion on CSR.


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## noirua (23 May 2007)

TheRage said:


> While an interesting correction to my anology perhaps not really adding any value to the discussion on CSR.




Hi, that was the strangest off-topic post I've ever seen in reply to your comments on CSR (post #125).

CSR have paid a 20c capital return and an additional 40 cents dividend in the last few years, however, they have trailed their twin, Rinker Group by a long way. 
All the interest in CSR's possible break-up or a consortium bidding should prevent any sharp reversal.


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## Fab (23 May 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi, that was the strangest off-topic post I've ever seen in reply to your comments on CSR (post #125).
> 
> CSR have paid a 20c capital return and an additional 40 cents dividend in the last few years, however, they have trailed their twin, Rinker Group by a long way.
> All the interest in CSR's possible break-up or a consortium bidding should prevent any sharp reversal.




I am seriously comteplating at getting rid of this one as it has gone nowhere in the last year. I only kept it for the dividend and even that is not enough anymore. Is there anyone out there thinking the same as me.


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## TheRage (24 May 2007)

noirua said:


> All the interest in CSR's possible break-up or a consortium bidding should prevent any sharp reversal.




I completely agree.

Fab holding CSR as Noirua pointed out might give you a little insurance against a falling sharemarket but perhaps not spectacular growth.


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## ROE (29 May 2007)

TheRage said:


> I completely agree.
> 
> Fab holding CSR as Noirua pointed out might give you a little insurance against a falling sharemarket but perhaps not spectacular growth.





a few directors top up their CSR holding recently...maybe they know something we dont or they just doing it to hold the stock steady


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## noirua (4 June 2007)

M&G, have once again increased their holding in CSR, this time from 10.16% to 10.64%. A 10% holding is a good block or strong position to force a larger bid.


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## TheRage (4 June 2007)

Seems one institutional investor is selling to the other. M&G buying PPT selling which could explain large volumes lately like 13 million today.


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## noirua (14 June 2007)

I've taken the opportunity to add a few CSR shares this morning with the continued strong trading. Profits were down this year on increased turnover, though a large one off sum arrived from a legal settlement. Debt has been reduced. The ethanol expenditure should start to bear fruit quite shortly. I therefore remain confident at this price and there is the added a spice of a possible break-up or remote possibility of a bid.


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## TheRage (14 June 2007)

noirua said:


> I've taken the opportunity to add a few CSR shares this morning with the continued strong trading. Profits were down this year on increased turnover, though a large one off sum arrived from a legal settlement. Debt has been reduced. The ethanol expenditure should start to bear fruit quite shortly. I therefore remain confident at this price and there is the added a spice of a possible break-up or remote possibility of a bid.




Big volume today of 16 million and last few days big volume. Most techies would tell us buying on such big volume with a falling share price is confirmation of a downward trend and to be honest I probably wouldn't argue with them. CSR is in for some rough times but like you I am accumulating in the lows when you view the bigger picture. CSR recently talked with pilkinton glass about the possibility of an aquistion. Pilkington's Free cash flows are quite inpressive. But I get uneasy when new management start thinking aquasitions instead of cutting the fat from current operations. I would love it if CSR dumped the aluminium business. Cost of Sales on aluminum smeltering seems to be increasing despite spot price of aluminum increasing. Imagine what would happen to the aluminum division if spot price tumbled. I am still holding.


----------



## Kauri (26 June 2007)

The volume and nature of the daily bars over the last couple of weeks or so have brought CSR firmly back onto my radar. The bottom *may* have been scratched???
...Cheers
........Kauri


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## TheRage (29 June 2007)

Plenty of volume still not much Sp movement. Barclays are out despite some interesting developments some of which I am still unsure about. CSR is building a new insulation plant as part of organic growth and cost efficiencies, they have also just bought Pilkington Glass for almost 700 million which apparently will be earnings accretive in 2009. They are funding acquisition from debt but will be reintroducing DRP to pay debt off. Either way if they issue it now or latter we will still own less of the company.
There are also supposed cost efficiencies being driven by the current building products with addition of the new pilkington division. While I applaud the new CEO for trying I can't help but think this little number has a number of hurdles to overcome. 1) spot price of Sugar is too dependant on Brazil's supply to the market. 2) Aluminum despite great spot price compared to history seems to be costing more to turn from ingots to usable product 3) Building industry uncertainty put the building division at risk. In summary I still hold purely because the combined value of all of CSR's businesses adds up to about $3.90a share and for this reason it may still appear cheap to a buyer who could integrate some or all of the divisions into their business.


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## noirua (5 July 2007)

This CSR Address to Shareholders, does seem to put the company on increasingly solid ground. Added just a few more on this information via our new MD:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070705/pdf/3139fttx45107.pdf


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## TheRage (5 July 2007)

The new CEO certainly talks the talk. While not fully convinced I think he is making some good changes. Personally I am more excited by the fact Guiness Peat Group just bought 6%. They also recently bought nearly 30% in Marloborough Sugar. Maybe some strategic buying.


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## noirua (26 July 2007)

CSR have completed their buy-back of 37,374,815 shares at between $2.79 and $3.43.

CSR stand at $3.60.


----------



## ozambersand (26 July 2007)

> CSR have completed their buy-back of 37,374,815 shares at between $2.79 and $3.43.
> 
> CSR stand at $3.60.




No they don't they slipped to $3.51 by the close. 

Recently there have been more buyers than sellers, now it is 2,200,000 sellers to 615,000 buyers. So watch the stock fall more.

That's what happened to Brambles as soon as the company finished its buy-back. (plus a negative earnings report)


----------



## noirua (30 August 2007)

Well, CSR have slipped further from $3.60 to $3.30 this morning, not helped by recent declines in markets. 

Only news are the discussions to purchase DMS glass and the raising of their stake in CSR by IOOF Holdings, from 5.025% to 6.123%. 

Needs more positive news that seems to be very scarce at the moment.


----------



## Brengun (17 September 2007)

CSR seems to be STILL dancing the Limbo.
Closed on Fri 14/09 at $2.98. Very high recent 27m to 31m volume trading.
Perhaps this is as low as it can go?


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## noirua (5 October 2007)

CSR are starting to recover from a very downtrodden position and my faith in this one has proved to be very much misplaced.

Still, the position now looks set rather average, though this is an improvement on the poor position of the last 12 months.

What now for CSR. Probably a continuation on the recent recovery, in the stock price, even though it may be a bit of a grind.

Trading at $3.25 at the close on Friday after a low of $2.95 quite recently.


----------



## vishalt (6 October 2007)

I reckon that CSR is going to be one of those turnaround stories, but I think it also needs the news first because its a bit of a silly business, but I think the management can pull through. lol @ aluminum AND sugar AND glass?

Anyway I'd like to see it break its stagnant trend first.


----------



## Dutchy3 (31 October 2007)

Big white today and looks like a move starting out of a bit of a bottom pattern. Long on the close for me via CFD. No real volume kick though so will have to keep this in mind when allowing this one to develop.


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## noirua (31 October 2007)

noirua said:


> CSR are starting to recover from a very downtrodden position and my faith in this one has proved to be very much misplaced.
> 
> Still, the position now looks set rather average, though this is an improvement on the poor position of the last 12 months.
> 
> ...




The upward grind continues and now at $3.41.  Looking pretty average at these price levels and even the $3.60 level may take sometime to achieve. Still, it is an upward crawl, but certainly not a march.

CSR completed a buy-back in July this year and gave away 20 cents the year beore.  Raising cash to make a purchase not that long after doesn't muster confidence.


----------



## vishalt (1 November 2007)

CSR is looking really good. 

Broke past that downtrend line, anything up with it? 

It's a going to be a good turnaround company.


----------



## blossom (3 November 2007)

Just wondering how I was able to buy CSR shares  for $3.06/share, when the market price was $3.30 something. It was a current shareholder offer, so I bought the max allowable. No fees or brokerage either. Seems to me that I have made a small profit on them.
 A gift.. or a gift horse? I think I have either  found a gift.. or bought a mule!


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## noirua (4 November 2007)

blossom said:


> Just wondering how I was able to buy CSR shares  for $3.06/share, when the market price was $3.30 something. It was a current shareholder offer, so I bought the max allowable. No fees or brokerage either. Seems to me that I have made a small profit on them.
> A gift.. or a gift horse? I think I have either  found a gift.. or bought a mule!




Hi, The shares were offered at an average price over a period of time and CSR then discounted the price by about 5%.


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## noirua (8 November 2007)

Poor sugar results and the strong Aussie Dollar have crucified CSR in the first half. Only thing holding the stock up is the possibility of a bid.

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=7206&setSub=1


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## daaussie (2 December 2007)

on friday, CSR hit a bottom and looked positive. I picked it up at 3.02 (close to bottom). Anyone know why the sharp rise on friday to 3.08 (backed off the close at 3.04)?


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## noirua (9 January 2008)

CSR appear at the end of cash raising plans, and recent management changes put them on a firmer footing. Today, trading at $3.15, up 4 cents, they look to be getting ready to test the $3.35 level, shown as quite important on Post #146.


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## SGB (9 January 2008)

noirua said:


> they look to be getting ready to test the $3.35 level, shown as quite important on Post #146.




Agree noirua, just confirmed a double top. Sugar prices have also been going up which is in favour for stock.


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## ROE (9 January 2008)

I bought in at $3.50 then sugar price gone south ever since and management reckon 2008 sugar price would stay low.. Hopefully with rising petrol
and other factors make sugar price go up again 
or buy an extra kilo of csr sugar every time I go shopping


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## noirua (17 January 2008)

CSR are looking strong today at $3.17, up 9 cents. Management changes earlier in the Month and last years cash raising may be increasing confidence.


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## DionM (17 January 2008)

Yes, surprising CSR has been doing okay, in fact for a while there it was one of my underperformers, but has held up well.

Is it due to takeover speculation, or are people recognising the fundamentals?  I thought I read somewhere that CSR would be in a strong position in 08 regarding sugar products for use in ethanol/fuel.  Wish I could find that quote.


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## ROE (19 February 2008)

CSR has a strong run up in for a few days now, what's going on? maybe some goods news will come out soon in the gloomy market


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## noirua (19 February 2008)

Hopefully, all this sugar is going to come good in the end. Australia still has a lot to do on the alternative fuel front and CSR should be well in the running on biofuel production.


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## noirua (26 February 2008)

At last CSR seem to be breaking firmly out of their 18 month bear trend at $3.34 today. Sugar trades around US$14.20 and should climb with commodities like wheat, cotton, corn etc.,


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## ROE (26 February 2008)

noirua said:


> At last CSR seem to be breaking firmly out of their 18 month bear trend at $3.34 today. Sugar trades around US$14.20 and should climb with commodities like wheat, cotton, corn etc.,




Looking at the trend I think someone may take a stake into CSR, will find out when they finish buying.

My guess it could takes up two 2-4 weeks for them to finish with their purchase.


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## noirua (4 March 2008)

CSR remain quite firm at $3.40 today despite no news for many months. Sugar and biofuels are key factors here as well as the assets purchased some six months ago.


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## ROE (5 March 2008)

Yeah I notice soft commodity is on a gang buster ride, not long before it catch up to resource  ..


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## noirua (7 March 2008)

CSR may have an interesting future if Dr Marc Faber's comments on how bullish he is about sugar comes to pass.  His forecasts of a US$100 oil price and US$1,000 gold price for 2008 are among so many of his correct forecasts.
Despite weak markets in general, CSR are among the brighter ASX100 stocks, imho.


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## ROE (7 March 2008)

noirua said:


> CSR may have an interesting future if Dr Marc Faber's comments on how bullish he is about sugar comes to pass.  His forecasts of a US$100 oil price and US$1,000 gold price for 2008 are among so many of his correct forecasts.
> Despite weak markets in general, CSR are among the brighter ASX100 stocks, imho.




Dr Marc Faber's I seen various of his article around and really never pay too much attention to it until he was on Lateline business last week.

I thought this guy was excellent, very knowledgeable and knows his stuff and sound like a genuine down to earth guy.

Another smart guy, now I listen when he talk


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## noirua (15 March 2008)

No news for 5 months from CSR and the stock stays firm in very weak markets. Closed the week at $3.33 and may be just the stock to hold with its sugar/biofuel interests.


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## noirua (31 March 2008)

CSR's Hebel and its position in the companies building portfolio:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080331/pdf/3189c0y6r90s13.pdf


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## noirua (3 April 2008)

noirua said:


> CSR's Hebel and its position in the companies building portfolio:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080331/pdf/3189c0y6r90s13.pdf



CSR remain quite a solid stock, yielding 4.7% (15 cents, partially franked) on a PE 10.4. The dividend has stood still of late but CSR are forging ahead with purchases and Bio development. All this should come to fruition in a year or two.


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## prana (11 May 2008)

I bought into the weakness, paid below $3 for it - good roe and solid dividend yield, pretty consistent earnings and diversified business, though I feel this years earnings will disappoint, so I'm prepared. Sugar prices fell sharply recently after a good rally with volumes, but didnt break down below support. This one dropped off the radar again for whatever reason.

Marc Faber is a genius, and if you speak to him, you'll realise he's also very very down to earth. Enormous respect!


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## noirua (14 May 2008)

CSR Final Results:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080514/pdf/3193mcxczpb59r.pdf

Video starts at 10amEST:  http://www-waa-akam.thomson-webcast...fd&portal_id=e3751324ba7f19599a7900859f4f2dd3


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## ans25 (4 August 2008)

To coin a phrase in another forum, ladies and gents.... this one is ready to pop.

On the way up and seems to have reached a bottom.


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## nunthewiser (4 August 2008)

was wondering when this would get noticed ...... i hold  as a trade and on t/a only came off a nice  lil base and will move trailing stop up to suit


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## ans25 (4 August 2008)

Yeah, had a smallish dip in today.

My coffee sure tasted better this morning, dare I say it, a little sweeter


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## Family_Guy (4 August 2008)

As a newbie to the stock market, this was one of the first trades i made, thought it was good value, got the divvy, price fell very soon after..........late April, you work it out. I planned on making 10% profit on all my trades and this one is one i hope will pop soon........geez, the dole doesn't much, i need a sell soon.


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## ans25 (4 August 2008)

I dont know much family guy abt this one but Im talking now purely as a graphing point of view. It looks like for a bit of increase now, but in this market you have to set your stops very strictly.

May add to this if it increases a bit more


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## prana (6 August 2008)

ans25 - volumes doesnt support a rally ... , though its a breakout from the downtrend, it may very well trade sideways yet for a little while until the housing construction industry returns to normal and or a recovery of sugar. Not sure if the ethanol ramp up is quite enough. I do like the business and am a holder - but I'm in it for long  but I'm not quite sure the charts are stating a rally is about to begin. 

Wouldn't mind hearing your opinion on the charts in more depth ...


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## noirua (6 August 2008)

The old bid talks as the CSR share price moved towards $4.00 seem to have gone away, or have they? Probably they've hibernated but Spring approaches, and at around $2.20 a share interest may be returning.
Like the US Dollar, the time comes when news is just not bad enough to continue the downward trend.


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## noirua (13 August 2008)

After plumbing the depths below $2.00 CSR are now $2.48. The share price just fell so low that the news was not bad enough to force it lower. A forecast that CSR will move back nearer $3.00 was enough for markets.


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## Bolivia (22 August 2008)

I'm definately no chartist and I don't know how to post a chart onto this forum, but it looks to me like an inverted head and shoulders has occured in CSR and could be in for an extended spike upwards.

Stock now 2.57


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## noirua (14 September 2008)

noirua said:


> The old bid talks as the CSR share price moved towards $4.00 seem to have gone away, or have they? Probably they've hibernated but Spring approaches, and at around $2.20 a share interest may be returning.
> Like the US Dollar, the time comes when news is just not bad enough to continue the downward trend.




Both friends together are CSR and the US$. Both recovering from a terrible downward trend. The falling Aussie$ looks to have been timely for CSR, just in time in fact.


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## noirua (16 September 2008)

Holding up well are CSR after the news a few weeks ago that the Pioneer Mill, Cane crushing juice clarifier vessel, was commissioned 5 weeks ahead of schedule.


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## noirua (10 November 2008)

CSR managed to increase profits in the first half by 12% but an asbestos provision of AU$48 million proved to be another setback.
Stronger results from the sugar division was encouraging, the Aluminium division did a tad better than flat. However, the building division has seen setbacks.
A dividend of 6 cents shows the company has little prospect to improve the position.
The tanking Aussie is helping and this year should be reasonable in the economic circumstances.
Shares are on a 7.1% yield at a PE of 14.2. The earnings yield was only 7%.


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## ozambersand (14 November 2008)

First the ASX gave a "braking" ticket (well what *is* the opposite of a speeding ticket? ) as the price dropped suddenly.

So CSR has gone into a trading until Tuesday 18th.

What's the goss. Has anyone got any decent speculations?

Share offer to raise cash and reduce debt?

Take over (who would be likely to?)


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## ozambersand (15 November 2008)

OK Found answer.

According to today's Financial Review there will be a $300+ million dollar rights issue "at a steep discount to current price".

Hope it's a discount on closing price not the price of a few weeks ago, lol.

I can see lots more of these coming in future and wonder whether shareholders available funds will eventually dry up for those companies not jumping on the bandwagon now.

Personally, I hate them as you are virtually forced to get them if you don't want your stake in them to be diluted and overpriced.

Still, better than the company being taken over at a price well below what you paid for them.


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## DionM (15 November 2008)

Interesting. I was hovering over the buy button recently - thinking about buying more to average down.  I have been selectively increasing my holdings over the last fe months.

I'm not a huge fan of SPPs either, but for me (as a small investor) it's a nice way to buy more without paying brokerage.


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## noirua (9 January 2009)

CSR is starting to look stronger now, from very low levels. A lot of faith from investors and Institutions has put them back on track, of sorts.


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## nth brisbanite (9 January 2009)

noirua said:


> CSR is starting to look stronger now, from very low levels.




I hope you are right as I've got quite a few CSR shares. What information have you got to back up this statement?


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 January 2009)

DionM said:


> Interesting. I was hovering over the buy button recently - thinking about buying more to average down.  I have been selectively increasing my holdings over the last fe months.
> 
> I'm not a huge fan of SPPs either, but for me (as a small investor) it's a nice way to buy more without paying brokerage.






noirua said:


> CSR is starting to look stronger now, from very low levels. A lot of faith from investors and Institutions has put them back on track, of sorts.






nth brisbanite said:


> I hope you are right as I've got quite a few CSR shares. What information have you got to back up this statement?




Living in the north,  CSR is never far from my radar of stocks to buy. 

I'm looking at it, it is near $1.30 which is a long term support resistance line.

Then again its been down to 60-70c in the late nineties , and if this is not the bottom then thats where its heading again.

Its in a hell of a down trend at present.

But like you guys I've been looking at it.

gg


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## noirua (9 January 2009)

CSR closed at $1.62, about 22 cents above the recent placing and well down on the $4 or so in 2006. Seem to have lost their way after Rinker Group broke away.
Rinker went on to $23 and were bought out at around $18.00 by Cemex. This shows the order of the poor management decisions at CSR and the asbestos factor coming home to roost.


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## ozambersand (15 January 2009)

It's possibly worth noting here that Cemex was trading on the New York stock exchange around the $30 plus mark for most of the time until May 2008 where after reaching $32 it declined steadily to $17.15 in September 2008 and then had a massive dive (like most of the world's stock) to about $7 in November. yesterday it was trading at $9.25. So $30 to $9.25 = 70% decline. 
In contrast, around the time Rinker was split off, CSR shares were trading around the $3.50 mark. They are currently trading at $1.625 a 53% drop.
So one might argue that in comparison they have been holding up better.
Considering that the ASX has dropped about 50% past its peak, CSR seems pretty average to me.
A lot of commentators are suggesting it split further and hive off aluminium and the building section or the sugar section. I think its diversity can be a strength.
I would like to see it go further along the route of buying up good energy effecient building companies and specialise that section in those areas.
It's probably not the best time to do that yet and now like everyone else they are probably just hoping to survive the downtrend. However, if they are still there when the dust settles that's where I would like to see them headed.


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## tigerboi (14 June 2009)

*Re: CSR-Adelaide the best division*

Adelaide is certainly doing their best to keep this recession at bay,what recession?ive been flat out since february running a stack of CSR gyprock & lots of beer from fosters & tooheys in sydney into your west end brewery.

the rest of the states are dead with sydney & melbourne having some drivers waiting up to 4 days to load out,brisbane last time up there in march was a ghost town with most drivers trying very hard to not go there as the freight volumes have dropped 50% plus.

most interstate companies are running their trailers empty from brisbane.

I will be watching CSR closer now that ive been doing heaps of their work...tb


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## noirua (18 June 2009)

CSR to Unlock Value With $1 Billion Sugar Spin-off: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25652217-643,00.html?from=boardroom+radio_rss


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## noirua (23 June 2009)

noirua said:


> CSR to Unlock Value With $1 Billion Sugar Spin-off: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25652217-643,00.html?from=boardroom+radio_rss



Even more interesting as Aluminium along with Copper wire and pipe are amongst the largest buy-ins of commodities by China.  Could give CSR a further lift.


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## noirua (29 July 2009)

CSR are recovering on the increased enthusiasm for the Sugar-spin-off (about AU$1 billion) and Chinese buying of Aluminium and copper. Looking a more encouraging stock on these factors that has driven the stock upwards, slowly but steadily.


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## So_Cynical (29 July 2009)

noirua said:


> CSR are recovering on the increased enthusiasm for the Sugar-spin-off (about AU$1 billion) and Chinese buying of Aluminium and copper. Looking a more encouraging stock on these factors that has driven the stock upwards, slowly but steadily.




Well there's certainly something other than the dividend yield driving the share price up 
 if the new divi holds...buying at the current SP will deliver a yield of less than 2% 

Surely it cant last...the CSR rally that is. :dunno:


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## noirua (30 July 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Well there's certainly something other than the dividend yield driving the share price up
> if the new divi holds...buying at the current SP will deliver a yield of less than 2%
> 
> Surely it cant last...the CSR rally that is. :dunno:




CSR shareholders may be hoping for a one for one share distribution of the sugar side of the business (similar to Rinker spin-off) or a capital distribution, or a combination of both.

Hi So_Cynical et al, 225 million new shares issued does leave the dividend situation looking sparse, as you infer.  2008 dividend was 15c a share (held for many years) and the interim for 2009 a miserable 1.5c.
At least, if they sell off just 25% of the sugar operation it may inject between $200 - $250 million into the company.  Much needed to get the company off in the right direction.


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## kenny (30 July 2009)

Interesting article in the Australian today discussing how GMG should be rather miffed at the recent demerger discussions. I wonder if they will bring something to the Board again?

Cheers,

Kenny


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## orixz (27 October 2009)

*CSR in trading halt ahead of capital raising*

_Building materials, glass and sugar firm CSR is on a trading halt. It's hoping to raise $375 million by selling shares so it can pay off debt, as it gets ready to spin off its sugar business. The company posted a net loss of 156 million dollars for the first half of the financial year._

An opinion piece in the Australian that I read today is largely negative about the capital raising in general - since I can't post links you can read about it on google 

Having a few shares in CSR myself, I was wondering what the opinions of the more seasoned investors on this board are with the regards to motivations behind the capital raising and how it could affect the proposed demerger?


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## So_Cynical (27 October 2009)

orixz said:


> I was wondering what the opinions of the more seasoned investors on this board are with the regards to motivations behind the capital raising and how it could affect the proposed demerger?




CSR have been very up front about the capital raising, its to pay down some debt and cash up the two CSR's for the demerger.


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## noirua (27 October 2009)

Looks as if it's sugar on the one hand and a housing/Aluminium venture on the other. When cashed up they will both look fairly attractive. Not that I'm interested in putting cash in until they've been split.
If markets continue to trend lower there could be an opportunity in 2010 to pile in - watching and waiting at the moment.


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## qldfrog (29 October 2009)

I hold CSR for the last couple of years and have only got bad news from these guys, I got rid of them a few months ago
unless the board and management is changed, I know I will not spend a cent with them:
whatever way sugar,insolation,etc market goes, they always manage to mess up!. just gut feelings and nothing more than my personal opinion...


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 October 2009)

qldfrog said:


> I hold CSR for the last couple of years and have only got bad news from these guys, I got rid of them a few months ago
> unless the board and management is changed, I know I will not spend a cent with them:
> whatever way sugar,insolation,etc market goes, they always manage to mess up!. just gut feelings and nothing more than my personal opinion...




CSR are a conundrum , but it may be the time to get in if they are about to break up and make the individual elements more profitable.

I'll have a look at a chart tonight and post it. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 October 2009)

qldfrog said:


> I hold CSR for the last couple of years and have only got bad news from these guys, I got rid of them a few months ago
> unless the board and management is changed, I know I will not spend a cent with them:
> whatever way sugar,insolation,etc market goes, they always manage to mess up!. just gut feelings and nothing more than my personal opinion...




Looking at the weekly chart you could be correct in your doggie label on CSR.

They are in a downtrend on the weekly and I don't see any upside for them technically.

Support was in the mid 80cents as it was some years ago.

However if you look at the price action from an Elliot wave view, in 2006 there was a wave 1 down, a wave 2 up into 2007 and then a long wave three down from 2007 to March of this year. Wave 4 looks to have completed and it may fall to the 40 or 50 c mark.

The trendline at the right is a worry, the fall is more acute recently.

This is a dog.


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## noirua (18 January 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This is a dog.




The dog prefers not to lay down and die, just like that. The plans to split the company for the second time since 2003 has run into a cloud of asbestos. So it should, as the remaining sugarless CSR Limited is in a more vulnerable position to pay all the court costs and claims going forward. It may be necessary to put another $50 million in the pot as they did a few years ago.

A sad fact all this, but the two new companies will be with asbestos and the other without. The court outcome may take a while yet.


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## noirua (7 April 2010)

Just purchased some CSR stock at $1.745. Following 'The Bull's' publication and agreeing with the possibilities surrounding the sale / purchase of the sugar interests, float, or bid. Worth a punt perhaps, imho.


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## So_Cynical (7 April 2010)

noirua said:


> Just purchased some CSR stock at $1.745. Following 'The Bull's' publication and agreeing with the possibilities surrounding the sale / purchase of the sugar interests, float, or bid. Worth a punt perhaps, imho.




Well worth a punt a few weeks ago at around 1.60 unfortunately i was other wise invested so couldn't get in...anyway if they cant win the court case then there's no way a sale could proceed i would think...i mean the same organisations and company's opposing the de-merger would be there opposing the sale on the same grounds, same argument, same result.


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## noirua (9 April 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Well worth a punt a few weeks ago at around 1.60 unfortunately i was other wise invested so couldn't get in...anyway if they cant win the court case then there's no way a sale could proceed i would think...i mean the same organisations and company's opposing the de-merger would be there opposing the sale on the same grounds, same argument, same result.




CSR piled in $50 million a few years ago to bail out the fund built up to cover asbestos claims. Courts are rightly concerned that the remaining CSR unit, without the sugar side, is more vulnerable and uncertainty in covering future claims is a concern. CSR may need to cover this by putting in a further $50 million and Brightside may well raise their bid a bit more to cover it.


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## noirua (11 April 2010)

Present market cap. for CSR is around $2.6 billion at $1.74 a share. The latest offer for the sugar side of the business is $1.75 billion or about $1.15 a share.

No doubt there will be some taxation, a sum - as put aside - for asbestos claims and also about $200 million passed over to CSR Limited on the present uncertain trading side of the business. This should leave about $1.2 billion for shareholder distribution, or 80c a share. [figures from no particular source and self calculated]


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## noirua (23 April 2010)

CSR shares rebounded yesterday after winning an appeal. Talks continue with China's Bright Foods concerning their A$1.75 billion bid for CSR's Sucrogen and renewable energy businesses.


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## rule1110 (13 May 2010)

any news on whats happening with the demerger? And any idea's on what this will do to share prices if it goes ahead?


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## So_Cynical (13 May 2010)

rule1110 said:


> any news on whats happening with the demerger? And any idea's on what this will do to share prices if it goes ahead?




The CEO was on lateline Business last nite...The de-merger is going ahead while talks with Brite are ongoing, the Brite mob was in Aust last week having a good look around the sugar mills and apparently were very impressed.

Prob 50/50 as to what will happen next.


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## noirua (3 June 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> The CEO was on lateline Business last nite...The de-merger is going ahead while talks with Brite are ongoing, the Brite mob was in Aust last week having a good look around the sugar mills and apparently were very impressed.
> 
> Prob 50/50 as to what will happen next.




My favorite Aussie stock at the moment. Especially as Dr Marc Faber is bullish about sugar. Maybe we'll get $2 billion from the Chinese or even more. 
Surprised CSR are not at around $2.50 but that says a lot for present markets and lack of confidence in Aussie markets.
Leaves an opportunity in my opinion, humble as it is.


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## noirua (12 June 2010)

CSR share price remains virtually unmoved and still, in my view, massively underrated. The sugar price remains bullish after drought in the Philippines. India's white sugar demand is up 61.4% and ethanol factors seem due to push the price onwards despite reaching six week highs on Friday.

CSR may well have further interest in their Sucrogen and Renewable Energy business. Bright Foods bid $1.75 billion but this may not be nearly enough for this buoyant sector business.
With profits rising I doubt CSR will unload their sugar business under $2 billion and may well be wanting to see nearer $2.5 billion the way things are going.

CSR market cap. at $1.675 a share is $2.537 billion - dividend yield around 5%.

Is the sugar side worth more than the present market capitalisation of the whole of CSR?


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## noirua (19 June 2010)

It does look as if the directors of CSR are going ahead with their share hiving off of Sucrogen despite Bright Foods still having interest in making a bid for this side of the business.

Market still seems to have no confidence in a bidder coming in with an acceptable bid for Sucrogen that the board will accept. Stock price has stayed fairly steady and maybe, just maybe, the time to look very closely at this one whilst there is still time


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## noirua (22 June 2010)

noirua said:


> It does look as if the directors of CSR are going ahead with their share hiving off of Sucrogen despite Bright Foods still having interest in making a bid for this side of the business.
> 
> Market still seems to have no confidence in a bidder coming in with an acceptable bid for Sucrogen that the board will accept. Stock price has stayed fairly steady and maybe, just maybe, the time to look very closely at this one whilst there is still time




An announcement from the ASX that basically says CSR are still in talks with Bright Food. The reason to stem speculation?

What speculation?  Maybe it's thought that Sucrogen is indeed worth far over the original bid by Bright Food of China at A$1.75 billion - one of Dr Marc Fabor's cheap commodity tips is sugar.

Maybe Bright Food are looking for a revaluation of the Yuan of around 10% - 15% and realise any bid needs to be nearer A$2.5 billion.


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## noirua (5 July 2010)

As it turned out, CSR bit the hand-off Bright Foods' subsidiary Wilmar International in accepting their A$1.75 billion bid for CSR's Sucrogen subsidiary.  CSR expect A$1.6 billion to be available after taxes to invest in their Aluminium and building businesses.


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## mr. jeff (5 July 2010)

hi noirua,
as you seem to be the most active on this issue of late, are you able to explain (as I don't have much experience in the area) if there is a $1.15 cps bid on CSR's Sugar division, how the maths works. I own stock and have been waiting to see what comes of this offer from Bright Foods.
What are the arrangements with asbestos penalties now and who inherits these at what magnitude, and has there been any recent reported analysis on the value of CSR without sugar?

I own CSR.


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## noirua (5 July 2010)

mr. jeff said:


> hi noirua,
> as you seem to be the most active on this issue of late, are you able to explain (as I don't have much experience in the area) if there is a $1.15 cps bid on CSR's Sugar division, how the maths works. I own stock and have been waiting to see what comes of this offer from Bright Foods.
> What are the arrangements with asbestos penalties now and who inherits these at what magnitude, and has there been any recent reported analysis on the value of CSR without sugar?
> 
> I own CSR.




Hi mr. jeff, The asbestos matter seems to have been accepted by the court, and that CSR have funds for claims in the future. CSR put about $50 million into the asbestos claims fund about 2 years ago. There is no way of knowing what future claims may be.

The market values CSR at about A$2.6 billion and CSR see $1.6 billion after tax from the sale of Sucrogen. Valuing the building and Aluminium sides is quite difficult in these markets, though I will have a look and try.


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## mr. jeff (5 July 2010)

cheers noirua.

it appears as though I am lazy, but am working as a fast as an amateur can (!) on getting a handle on the value of the separated (and sugar div. sale) entities. as has been mentioned already, there is a possibility of an entry on this agreement, but that is pure speculation of course unless there are some fairly good solid numbers and assumptions to work with. 

will advise if I can help, but note I own them already and have little idea what I am talking about.


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## noirua (10 July 2010)

CSR lifted a bit on news of a cash handout. How much though?, - don't know; but may be up to half at $800 million or 50c a share, later in the year or early 2011.


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## mr. jeff (21 July 2010)

Ok I have looked at the balance sheet etc. and have found some interesting things on CSR. I ampuzzled as to why there has not been more investigation into this stock... 
I don't have enough time now to record all the numbers, but the bones of my thinking is this...

sp is 1.74. 
sugar contributes 35% of EBIT.
take 35% from earnings and see where you get using a reasonably conservative PE ratio realtive to other companies which compete in the building arena and aluminium arena.  (ie. by separating earnings for each division.)

This sounds simplistic but I am having trouble getting a DCF valuation finished; dont want to send the wrong message.

I think that there may exist an unrealised large upside to CSR demerger, with about 800M being injected as cash into the books, and the aluminium business seems to show reasonable returns, as does the building materials section. If you have a look at the PE of Boral (BLD) it is very high, so I think an estimate of 2.45 for the CSR share price, NOTE including sugar earnings contribution for FY11 (now), plus the capital return or share buy back possibility, there is quite a limited downside to this.

Please investigate my shenanigans as I have spent 2 solid days myself and help me form a good picture.
I own these shares already, but the trade looks like a great, low risk set up so far. sorry for the length, will be interested in others opinions; anyone have a good idea about discounted cashflow valuation?

cheers.


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## mr. jeff (30 July 2010)

further to my previous post, (and although it's quiet here) there was an ASX lodgement that an insider just  bought 40,00 shares 2 days ago.
also, here is a chart for the ytd.



which shows that there seems to be support at 1.70.
they did an issue at 1.66 so I suggest this is the base line.
Note  I own CSR.


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## noirua (11 August 2010)

Hi Mr. jeff et al, CSR's stock price has been held back waiting for final approval of Wilmar's bid to buy Sucrogen. It looks as if this is likely to be finalised late in 2010 and any cash return will probably be paid in 2011.

Meanwhile, CSR continue with their sales program in selling their Naranga, North of Brisbane site for $25.5 million.

At $1.715 CSR are looking strong on a yield of 5%.


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## noirua (25 August 2010)

The BHP Billiton 111% increase in aluminium profits bodes well for CSR as sugar and building profits are also seen set to improve as well. The holdup in the sale of Sucrogen has been more sobering, especially with the election situation being in a stalemate position. Another election within 12 months looks highly likely.


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## noirua (9 September 2010)

I've bought quite a lot of CSR stock and the political stalemate coming to an end should see the Sucrogen deal done and dusted by year end. Stock price trying hard to lift off and should jump on confirmation on the sugar sale go-ahead. A payback of at kleast 50c - 60c a share should be forthcoming earl in 2011, and lots of cash to develop the booming aluminium side of the business.
Still selling off some small interests to add further cash.
Looking good with a yield close to 5% and lots to go for.


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## noirua (1 January 2011)

noirua said:


> I've bought quite a lot of CSR stock and the political stalemate coming to an end should see the Sucrogen deal done and dusted by year end. Stock price trying hard to lift off and should jump on confirmation on the sugar sale go-ahead. A payback of at least 50c - 60c a share should be forthcoming earl in 2011, and lots of cash to develop the booming aluminium side of the business.
> Still selling off some small interests to add further cash.
> Looking good with a yield close to 5% and lots to go for.




All the above came to pass but the CSR stock price remained distinctly unimpressed and languishing at around $1.68. 
CSR quite obviously wanted to sell Sucrogen and not float it to shareholders. Basically they wanted to hold on to at least half the $1.6 billion - after taxation - for expanding their building sector and aluminium business. 
So cash will arrive now early in 2011 at about 52.3c a share or so.

Confidence in CSR management is below par after the glass investments.


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## tronic72 (14 January 2011)

Interested to know what others think of the potential for CSRs shares to jump due to the Queensland floods.

Under normal conditions, sales of Plasterboard are directly related to the production of new houses or commercial dwellings and to a much lesser extent, renovations.

With the floods, I see a massive demand. The company has been quite static recently, mainly due to the lack of new homes been built.

Thinking laterally on this one


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## oldblue (14 January 2011)

I'd expect to see all building related stocks benefitting from the situation as did FBU in the weeks immediately following the Christchurch earthquake.


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## tronic72 (14 January 2011)

oldblue said:


> I'd expect to see all building related stocks benefitting from the situation as did FBU in the weeks immediately following the Christchurch earthquake.




Just took at look on eTrade and there's 4 strong buys I looked at CSR recently and didn't see much interest from memory. The latest update is yesterday.

T


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## absolute1 (14 January 2011)

tronic72 said:


> Just took at look on eTrade and there's 4 strong buys I looked at CSR recently and didn't see much interest from memory. The latest update is yesterday.
> 
> T




thats down from 6 strong buy reccommendations a couple of months ago on e trade


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## skc (14 January 2011)

tronic72 said:


> Interested to know what others think of the potential for CSRs shares to jump due to the Queensland floods.
> 
> Under normal conditions, sales of Plasterboard are directly related to the production of new houses or commercial dwellings and to a much lesser extent, renovations.
> 
> ...




My 2c on CSR here... don't forget CSR has done ex-div (9.13c) since the post.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21005&p=602166&viewfull=1#post602166

Overall CSR should benefit from the flood due to increased building activities. But buying building materials after a flood is hardly lateral thinking...


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## Tekwrek (11 February 2011)

Any news of the sudden dive?


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## wtang89 (11 February 2011)

Tekwrek said:


> Any news of the sudden dive?




The sudden 'dive' is due to the return on capital that has been approved with an ex date on feb 10th for the amount of 43.57c/share.


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## glk2000 (18 February 2011)

what happened to todays high? yesterday was still $1.18 and straight away jumped to $3.56


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## So_Cynical (18 February 2011)

glk2000 said:


> what happened to todays high? yesterday was still $1.18 and straight away jumped to $3.56




You probably should be paying a little more attention to your investments.

 Fully franked special dividend of 9.13 cents per share to be paid on 2 Feb 2011
Capital return of 43.57 cents per share, subject to shareholder approval
*Proposed 3:1 share consolidation, subject to shareholder approval*

http://www.csr.com.au/news/Documents/110107 ASX_announcement.pdf


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## ChaoSI (25 February 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> You probably should be paying a little more attention to your investments.
> 
> Fully franked special dividend of 9.13 cents per share to be paid on 2 Feb 2011
> Capital return of 43.57 cents per share, subject to shareholder approval
> ...



 thanks for posting the announcement... was kinda counting on them posting something on comsec ^^"
anyhoo i'm not really in with this lingo so i'm not sure what it means.... all i've noticing is that they've divided my shares by 3 as part of a "consolidation" which has increased
the share price..

i'm just lost as to what this means for my investment here......

also... what does "def set" mean?


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## noirua (14 November 2011)

Now often forgotten CSR, sugarless now, have bundles of cash sitting there that will even improve their lacklustre glass purchases from several years -- a pathetic purchase.
The building side looks just about on track as is the aluminium part of the company.


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## Tukker (18 December 2011)

Hi Noirua,
I was looking at CSR over the weekend. Chart isn't looking good yet for a recovery.  Has there been any report outlining the impact of recycling on the aluminum industry worldwide? curious.

Tukker.


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## prakashd3000 (2 February 2012)

Hi Guys,
Writing for the first time. I hold CSR bought at about $3.60, ($1.20*3) just wanted to know if it has any hope and is worth holding or selling off totally and incurring heavy losses.

Thanks 

Prakash


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## noirua (8 June 2012)

CSR have drifted down since selling off the sugar side of the business and returning cash to shareholders. Held back after the disappointed glass asset purchase and sales at a loss, but has a good aluminium business and building sector assets. On a yield of 8.4% at $1.54 and debt free, may have been unfairly hammered for too long.


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## DocK (12 October 2012)

CSR appears to have broken out of its long downtrend, and has made a couple of higher lows in recent months.  Main business is building products and aluminium - neither of which I would have thought was booming at present.  Is the share price increase due to better expectations for these areas in the future, or have there been management changes etc?  A Google search hasn't produced much and I'm wondering if now might not be a good time to buy a small parcel.  If we are at the bottom of the real estate market then CSR is well-placed to take advantage of an increase in construction activity?


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## brettc4 (14 October 2012)

DocK, this chart also grabbed my attention.  

The down days appear to be on low volume which I take as weakness.  My only concern is the depth of this current low, provided it stays aboue $1.56 I can see some upside. My first profit target would $1.95.


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## Horrid Beast (19 December 2013)

*Any thoughts on the direction of CSR.*

Been tracking this stock and think it may well climb tomorrow. Any thoughts?


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## piggybank (15 January 2014)

CSR Limited Half Yearly Report and Accounts - 30 Sept 2013 (click on link to see the document):-

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSR&E=ASX&N=767298


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## piggybank (13 March 2014)

Daily P&F Update:-

​


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## piggybank (22 April 2014)

​


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## Younga (24 December 2016)

See CSR has been rising rather nicely.  I expect the trend to continue due to a strong building sector.  Anyone holding this stock?


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## systematic (14 January 2017)

Younga said:


> See CSR has been rising rather nicely.  I expect the trend to continue due to a strong building sector.  Anyone holding this stock?




I was just doing some "what would I pick if I wanted to play Buffett style - good company at a reasonable price" and reduced the entire ASX down to this stock.  I didn't realise until afterwards that I do hold this stock (for other reasons) since May '16 - but given that it came up on this fun look at 'quality businesses' I'd be interested in any of the fundamental analyst's views on this company.


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## greggles (18 April 2018)

CSR pushing through $5.50, a long term resistance level. Hard to believe this was almost $1 back in 2012.


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## Redbeard (25 October 2018)

Apart from the last week whats the cause of CSR dropping from ~5.70 to ~3.50 this week?
or is it just housing market going south?


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## peter2 (10 February 2019)

@So_Cynical  In response to your query, Is it time for housing materials to bounce of their lows?
(JHX, CSR, BLD, ABC)  Their charts are looking much more bullish now, although I wonder if the reduced real estate valuations will hinder this group from advancing.

They lag the general market and I'd prefer to be looking at those that have rallied over the past two weeks. However for the far sighted, deep value investors (crushed price bargain hunters) this is an opportunity.


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## peter2 (6 September 2020)

My last post (arrowed in wkly chart) was spot on for timing as CSR went from 3.10 to 5.00 in the year.

Now there's another broad base opportunity.


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## over9k (6 September 2020)

What caused the dip before it?


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## peter2 (6 September 2020)

The dip in early June 20 ? Hard to say (other than there where too many sellers) as this was before the AGM and there was no news announced at that time.

Just noticed that there were three consecutive big down days in the XAO so perhaps it was general market bearish sentiment. Lock down news?


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## over9k (6 September 2020)

Bloodbath on the NYSE. Massive tech rally after zoom reported earnings at 400% of estimates, then armageddon the next day when I think it was docusign which reported earnings after close the previous day at "only" 20% above estimates or whatever it was. Worst two days since march. Nasdaq did 5% in a single day.


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## SuperGlue (20 September 2020)

A bit late but looks promising.

Please DYOR.


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## Trav. (20 September 2020)

@SuperGlue nice break of $4 on Friday by CSR and looking pretty strong, I can't fault this one as well.


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## SuperGlue (20 September 2020)

Having second thoughts of adding CSR to my Super tomorrow (Monday) after looking at Dow Jones down 244
Maybe wait hmmmm...for a pullback.

Just my 2 cents thought.

Please DYOR


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## aus_trader (20 September 2020)

SuperGlue said:


> Having second thoughts of adding CSR to my Super tomorrow (Monday) after looking at Dow Jones down 244
> Maybe wait hmmmm...for a pullback.
> 
> Just my 2 cents thought.
> ...



I didn't know what the Dow Jones would've done on Friday night, because I had just bought CSR shares for the *Speculative Stock Portfolio* the same day


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## SuperGlue (21 September 2020)

aus_trader said:


> I didn't know what the Dow Jones would've done on Friday night, because I had just bought CSR shares for the *Speculative Stock Portfolio* the same day




When the system says buy or sell we have to pull the trigger.
We can’t be watching the market round the clock.

Normally I’ll check the US futures on Marketwatch and Dow Jones chart to get an idea of what the market will do tomorrow just before Oz market closes.
Not always right but good to know.
DJI futures currently down approx. 550

I didn’t buy CSR today, good to see it’s in the green.
Please DYOR


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## Trav. (4 November 2020)

CSR has been interesting lately.

I can't believe that a stock at this price is swinging so much. It makes me wonder what is happening and who is playing games, but I am happy to hold (in at $4.39) for a bit longer to see if it can hold a break > $5


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## Dona Ferentes (1 August 2021)

CSR has quietly become a property powerhouse, revealing on Thursday it will make an estimated $230 million pre-tax profit from the staged sale of a 52-hectare former brickworks site at Horsley Park in western Sydney.

The announcement came as ASX-listed CSR, better known as a building products manufacturer and part-owner of an aluminum smelter, sold the final 12.4 hectare parcel to data centre company NextDC for $124 million.

CSR has owned the Horsley Park land for five years.


> “_The site came in as part acquisition of the Boral business when we concluded our joint venture of our two bricks business,_” a spokesman said. “_One of the benefits of being in a business that’s 160 years old is your manufacturing footprint is pretty old.”_




Profits from the site, where remediation and civil works on two of the six tranches are already complete and occupied by the buyers, will flow through to the CSR bottom line over the next four years. CSR will net $408 million from the site sales, spending around $178 million on development costs.

CSR said it still controls more than 300 hectares of development land in western Sydney, including 200 hectares in the Western Sydney Airport precinct rezoned industrial last September,, the value of which has almost doubled in two years.


- _sugar hit to the balance sheet_


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## divs4ever (4 November 2021)

CSR Limited delivers half year net profit after tax (before significant items) of $86.6 million, up 30%

 CSR Limited (ASX:CSR) announces net profit after tax (NPAT before significant items) for the half year ended 30 September 2021 of $86.6 million, up 30% from the prior comparable period. Statutory net profit after tax of $156.6 million included a significant item relating to the recognition of $71.2 million in carry forward capital tax losses.
 This result compares to statutory net profit of $58.7 million in the prior comparable period. Trading revenue of $1.1 billion was up 6% with earnings before interest and tax (EBIT before significant items) of $132.6 million, up 41% which included the following results:
 • Building Products – EBIT of $120.6 million, up 25% reflecting positive conditions in the detached market, strong operational execution, manufacturing performance and good cost control in a COVID constrained environment.
 • Property – EBIT of $6.6 million was delivered following the Moss Vale site sale. The final transaction at Horsley Park was secured in July 2021. In total, this project is expected to generate proceeds of $408 million by the year ending 31 March 2025 (YEM25).
 • Aluminium – EBIT increased to $18.3 million, up from $6.2 million in the prior comparable period with performance reflecting improved spot pricing and hedged position. 
Interim dividend of 13.5 cents per share (fully franked) declared which is at the top end of CSR’s dividend policy. Consistent with CSR’s Property strategy which is actively unlocking value from its property assets, CSR has also secured the sale of the 41 hectare site at Warner, QLD with EBIT of ~$30 million expected to be completed in YEM23. Maximising the current market opportunity with strong execution, while progressing strategy and managing COVID disruption Commenting on the result, CSR Managing Director & CEO Julie Coates said, “CSR’s businesses have performed very well despite the ongoing impacts of COVID on our operations. In Building Products, we made the most of the positive conditions in the detached market. The team executed well to deliver a strong result underpinned by good manufacturing performance and ongoing cost discipline.
 Our first priority was to keep our people safe and minimise COVID disruptions at our sites and for our customers.” 2 / 3 “We have also made good progress across a number of key strategic initiatives. We continue to develop our customer solutions and supply chain opportunities in Building Products. And we are unlocking further value from our property assets and development capabilities, securing the final tranche at Horsley Park with expected proceeds in excess of $400 million from the 52 hectare site over a six year period.” “CSR continues to deliver strong cash generation to invest in growth opportunities in the business as well as returns for shareholders with the interim dividend at the top end of our dividend policy.” 

Outlook for the financial year ending 31 March 2022 Building activity during the period grew in line with expectations going into the year. Declines in high density and commercial construction partly offset the strong detached market. 
We expect activity in the second half which has fewer trading days than the first half to reflect the traditional seasonality of the building industry. Completion times for projects continue to lengthen, reflecting supply chain congestion, cost pressures and labour constraints which are impacting the broader industry. The diversified nature of Building Products across product, geography and end markets positions the business well for the second half and beyond. 
This is supported by continued focus on maximising market opportunity, executing strategy and maintaining cost and operational discipline while returning to more normalised levels of investment. In Property, EBIT for YEM22 is expected to be ~$34 million which includes completion of the next tranche of Horsley Park Stage 2 project which is on track to deliver EBIT of $18 million. In addition, EBIT of ~$11 million is forecast to be realised from smaller transactions at Chirnside Park, VIC and Thornton, QLD. In Aluminum, based on significant hedge positions, EBIT for YEM22 is expected to be in the range of $35 to $41 million, assuming all other revenue and cost areas (including coal costs) are unchanged. As aluminium prices have improved, CSR has significantly increased its hedge position for the next four years to provide more certainty of future earnings. In summary, CSR’s largest business, Building Products is performing well in the current market and progressing its strategy to diversify and grow the business for the future. Group earnings will also be supported over coming years by contracted transactions from Property and a strong hedge position in Aluminium.
 3 / 3 Half year results webcast details CSR will present its results for the half year ended 30 September 2021 at 10.00am AEDT time today, Thursday 4 November 2021, via webcast.

 DYOR

i hold CSR ( inherited  , but added to and reduced as opportunities arrived )

 the family acquired these when CSR took over Maryborough Sugar Refinery


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## divs4ever (9 February 2022)

Property update – sale of 4.6 hectares of land at Badgerys Creek CSR Limited (ASX:CSR) today announced the sale of 4.6 hectares of land at its site at Badgerys Creek, NSW for total proceeds of $20.7 million ($450 per sqm). CSR’s Badgerys Creek site includes 200 hectares of land adjacent to the new Western Sydney Airport. 
Industrial zoning of the area was confirmed in September 2020 with CSR currently undertaking rehabilitation of the former quarries at the site. The 4.6 hectare site being sold is on the outer edge of CSR’s 200 hectare property and is adjacent to industrial projects proposed on other sites.
 CSR will not be required to complete any site works prior to completing this sale, which will not impact future planning for the wider area. CSR Managing Director and CEO Julie Coates noted, “CSR’s Badgerys Creek site is one of the largest properties adjacent to the new Western Sydney Airport which will bring significant growth to the region.” CSR’s Chief Financial Officer and EGM Property, David Fallu added, “With approximately 140 hectares of developable land at Badgerys Creek, we are continuing to invest in the extensive rehabilitation and reconstruction of the former quarries at Badgerys Creek, which will be continuing over the next few years.” The 4.6 hectare land sale is expected to be completed prior to CSR’s current financial year ending on 31 March 2022 (YEM22). 
CSR has previously advised that it expects Property EBIT for YEM22 of approximately $34 million. Following completion of this transaction and additional costs to be recorded relating to another Property site, YEM22 Property EBIT is now expected to be approximately $46 million. This announcement has been authorised for release by the Chair of CSR Limited. 

DYOR

i hold CSR ( inherited , but added to and reduced as opportunities arrived )


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## divs4ever (11 May 2022)

CSR Limited delivers 20% increase in net profit after tax (before sig. items)
24% growth in Building Products earnings reflecting strong operational execution
and high demand
CSR Limited (ASX:CSR) announces net profit after tax (NPAT before significant items) for the
year ended 31 March 2022 of $193 million, up 20% from the previous year.
Statutory net profit after tax of $271 million included significant items relating to the recognition
of $86 million in carry forward capital tax losses. This result compares to statutory net profit
after tax of $146 million in the previous year.
Trading revenue of $2.3 billion was up 9% with earnings before interest and tax (EBIT before
significant items) of $291 million, up 22% which included the following results:
• Building Products – Record EBIT of $228 million, up 24%, reflecting strong detached
housing activity driving higher volumes, improved factory performance and operational
execution and continued cost discipline across all businesses. Return on funds employed
increased to 27% from 21%.
• Property - EBIT of $47 million, down from $54 million, which included the next stage at
Horsley Park and the sale of 4.6ha of land at Badgerys Creek.
• Aluminium - EBIT of $40 million, up from $23 million, reflecting higher aluminium pricing
partly offset by higher production costs.
Final dividend of 18.0 cents per share (fully franked) declared. This brings the full year
dividend to 31.5 cents per share (fully franked) which is at the top end of CSR’s policy of 60-
80% of net profit after tax (before significant items).
Strong execution in disrupted market with continued progress on strategy
Commenting on the result, CSR Managing Director & CEO Julie Coates said,
“All of CSR’s businesses have performed very well during the year. In Building Products,
our team worked hard to support the demand in residential housing with strong operational
execution. The organisational change we have made streamlining the business over the last
18 months along with the initiatives aligned to our supply chain strategy have supported our
ability to deliver for CSR’s customers against a challenging backdrop.
“We will continue to implement our strategy this year with increased investment at key sites
to further improve productivity and optimise operations, as well as enhancing workplace
safety and sustainability.
2 / 3
“Investing in our Property assets and our development capability is also a core part of our
results with contracted sales secured for all stages at Horsley Park to deliver $408 million in
proceeds over six years. Remediation work is also progressing on the 196 hectare site at
Badgerys Creek adjacent to the new Western Sydney Airport.
“CSR has also continued to deliver strong cash generation and returns for shareholders with
the full year dividend at the top end of our dividend policy.”
Outlook for the financial year ending 31 March 2023 (YEM23)
The strong pipeline of detached housing projects is expected to continue in the year ahead
as completion times lengthen with supply chain and trade capacity impacting the broader
industry.
Activity in the apartment and non-residential markets has improved after an extended
slowdown in the last few years.
Building Products is well positioned to continue to grow, with a clear strategy to drive
improved performance from a strong portfolio of brands and customer solutions. In YEM23,
the business expects to return to more normal levels of investment to support the delivery of
its strategy.
In Property, EBIT for YEM23 is expected to be ~$52 million which includes completion of the
next tranche at Horsley Park as well as completion of the sale of the Warner, QLD site.
In Aluminium, CSR has a significant hedge position for YEM23. At this early point in the
year, an indicative earnings range for YEM23 of $33 million to $49 million is based on
current pricing and cost scenarios. Significant aluminium price and cost volatility (in
particular carbon based inputs) will impact the final result.
In summary, CSR’s largest business, Building Products is performing well with the team
working hard to meet high levels of demand in residential construction which is expected to
continue in the year ahead. Group earnings will be supported by contracted transactions in
Property over the next three years and an increased hedge position in Aluminium which
extends to 2027.
Full year results webcast details
CSR will present its results for the year ended 31 March 2022 at 10.00am AEST time today,
Wednesday 11 May 2022, via webcast.
The webcast is available from CSR’s website at www.csr.com.au or Click here.
This announcement has been authorised for release by the Board of Directors

=======================================================================================================

DYOR

i hold CSR ( inherited , but added to and reduced as opportunities arrived ) ( and i participate in the DRP )

the family acquired these when CSR took over Maryborough Sugar Refinery


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## KevinBB (2 June 2022)

Down from about $6 to about $4.50 during the month of May. Goodish annual report.

is there any reason for this largish price drop? Can't see anything in the announcements.

Thanks,
KH


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## divs4ever (2 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Down from about $6 to about $4.50 during the month of May. Goodish annual report.
> 
> is there any reason for this largish price drop? Can't see anything in the announcements.
> 
> ...



probably seen as a likely victim in a housing construction downturn  ( and general property construction as well )

 but am just guessing 

 i think it also is the main competitor to BKW  in bricks  ( in Australia ) so  how is BKW going that might be a hint


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## KevinBB (2 June 2022)

ok, thanks.


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## Dona Ferentes (2 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Down from about $6 to about $4.50 during the month of May. Goodish annual report.
> 
> is there any reason for this largish price drop?




Input costs, including energy, plus supply chain disruptions are the usual reasons trotted out.

Divs is right as BKW has also been knocked down.

Latest Announcement:

strong pipeline of work in the detached housing market
apartments coming back after an extended slowdown
non-residential construction was improving.
labour shortages and supply chain congestion are a handbrake in the industry, causing house building and renovation projects to take up to 50 per cent longer than usual.


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## divs4ever (2 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> ok, thanks.



now if you wanted an interesting GAMBLE  , what about BLD  , betting on ONE , that SVW/Kerry Stokes  puts in a compulsory acquisition  move ( since it is already a majority shareholder ) OR  TWO as majority share-holder  starts kicking enough butt to get BLD back to a solid company 

 i hold CSR , BKW , and SVW 
 ( i have held BLD in the past  , and am weighing  the possibility of a return  as a possible side-door entry into extra SVW )

 but i DO except  more pain in the building/construction industry in the near future


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## KevinBB (2 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> now if you wanted an interesting GAMBLE , what about BLD ,



Gamble? Never!

Actually, I am one step ahead of you. I have BLD in the annual tipping comp, based on your first thesis. See this post.

KH
(p.s. I hold neither BLD or CSR, but they are both on my watchlist)


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## Dona Ferentes (2 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Gamble? Never!
> 
> Actually, I am one step ahead of you. I have BLD in the annual tipping comp, based on your first thesis. See this post.



Now BLD is 70% owned by Stokes n Co ,,, expect volatility. Don't forget to check the calculation in the comp as there was a large cap return for Boral in Feb !!


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## KevinBB (2 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Don't forget to check the calculation in the comp



On top of it. @peter2 has already adjusted price for the capital return, but has not yet accounted for the large dividend. I expect he will do that on 31 December this year, when I win the competition.


KH


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## peter2 (2 June 2022)

The *BLD* div was 0.07, is that a _large_ one.   The cap return was 2.65 and the year's open price has been adjusted for it.

Like most I've been bullish both *CSR* and *BLD* due to the enthusiasm for building infrastructure and housing but the market has sold them down the drain.  They're not the only companies that have been sold off in this market. I think this is a craziest market I've seen in my meagre 17yrs trading. Plumbing suppliers *REH, RWC *and GWA, down down, down.


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## peter2 (18 July 2022)

I'm interested in this reversal setup in *CSR* in the daily chart. The weekly chart needs more time and remains bearish.


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