# Is the US Dollar 'Doomed'?



## RichKid (10 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*

*Marc Faber recently said that the USD was doomed and that we should all frame copies of dollar bills to show our grandchildren. This particular debate started in a USD charting thread but has been moved here because of the wide ranging discussion.*




			
				salz said:
			
		

> It shows the USD is on a downtrend aren't it?




If it didn't before it certainly would now (btw it did show bearish EW counts for those who don't follow EW). 

Here's what Marc Faber thinks of it, quite a funny guy (my emphasis, not that you need it with picturesque words like his): 

---------------

..............ALAN KOHLER: Did you notice that Steven Roach, the chief economist of Morgan Stanley, who has been a bear for a very long time, seems to have changed his tune now, saying he's feeling better about the world than for a long time. Do you think that the fact that Steve Roach has kind of thrown in the towel is a sell signal or do you think he's onto something?

MARC FABER: Well, Steve is a good friend of mine and he gave already a sell signal two years ago. He suddenly turned bullish about bonds and since then the bond market has been weak. And I agree with him that we are in a global boom but it doesn't change the fact that it is an imbalanced boom and it's driven largely by credit creation in the US, leading to overconsumption, leading to a growing trade deficit, current account deficit, the accumulation of reserves in Asia and a global boom. But it is nevertheless an imbalanced boom and one day there will be a problem, certainly with the US dollar. *The US dollar is a doomed currency. Doomed? Doomed. Will be worthless. Actually each one of your listeners should buy one US Treasury bond and frame it - put it on the wall so they can show their grandchildren how the US dollar and how US dollar bonds became worthless as a result of monetary inflation.*

ALAN KOHLER: You made at least three great calls - you warned of the 87 crash just before it happened, you warned investors to get out of Japan in 1990 and out of Asia in general in 1997. So what specifically is your call right now?

MARC FABER: I think we are in a bear market for financial assets. There's a bear market where the Dow Jones, say, would go from here - 11,000 to 33,000. It would go up in dollar terms but the dollar would collapse against, say gold or foreign currencies. That's what I think will happen with Mr Bernanke at the Fed because he has written papers and he has pronounced speeches in which he clearly says that the danger for the economy would be to have not deflation in the price of a fax machine or PC, but deflation in asset prices. And so I believe that he is a money printer. If I had been a university professor, I would not have let him pass his exams to become an economist. I would have said, "Learn an apprenticeship as a money printer."

ALAN KOHLER: (Laughs) So, a big mistake putting him in charge of the Fed then?

MARC FABER: I think it's very dangerous, very dangerous...........
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1632456.htm


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## ducati916 (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*

et al 

It would seem that Dr Faber is being cited, as providing the argument for "the death of the greenback" and the long term potential of gold in particular, and commodities in general.

My first issue would be in his listing cash as an asset class Cash is a medium of transaction, as such it is a commodity, and open to price fluctuation based on supply and demand dynamics. Hence, as he argues, money in the form of a fiat currency that exceeds the growth of GDP will devalue.

It would also seem that he is quite happy to embrace the theory of equilibrium, and the law of large numbers.

Into that philosophy, he interjects the phenomenon of speculation.

Therefore, under equilibrium theory we have the central value or intrinsic value, that is distorted to the upside and the downside by speculation.

The key therefore must be in either "timing" or "pricing" or of course just roll 'em and hope for the best.

His argument regarding the purchasing power of the US$ would seemingly hinge upon the expansion of the money supply, exceeding that of the GDP, causing a massive devaluation, or more accurately a loss of purchasing power.

His argument for gold is based on this assumption. That the US$ loses so much purchasing power as to become in essence worthless, therefore, prudent investors & speculators will migrate to gold, or possibly silver to protect themselves from this imminent disaster.

Let's examine the numbers;

CPI from 1921 to 2006 = 2.8% inflation rate
CPI from 2000 to 2006 = 2.8% inflation rate
CPI from 1980 to 1999 = 4.1% inflation rate

PPI from 1921 to 2006 = 2.4% inflation rate
PPI from 2000 to 2006 = 4.5% inflation rate
PPI from 1980 to 1999 = 2.1% inflation rate

Gold from 1921 to 2006 = 3.5% inflation rate
Gold from 2000 to 2006 = 16.1% inflation rate
Gold from 1980 to 1999 = (-4.5%) deflation rate

DJIA from 1921 to 2006 = 6.32 inflation rate
DJIA from 2000 to 2006 = 0.0% inflation rate
DJIA from 1980 to 1999 = 14.5% inflation rate

GDP from 1947 to 2005 = 7.11% inflation rate
GDP from 1999 to 2005 = 7.08 inflation rate
GDP from 1980 to 1999 = 6.8% inflation rate

M1 from 1959 to 2006 = 4.8% inflation rate
M1 from 2000 to 2006 = 3.6% inflation rate
M1 from 1980 to 2006 = 5.8% inflation rate

The long term series best illustrate the central value, or intrinsic value of the asset class.
Under equilibrium theory, fluctuations above and below will over a long enough period of time return, due to the law of large numbers and equilibrium theory thus returning to the central value.

We as investors, obviously cannot invest in 85yr time horizons if we plan to reap the reward.
Therefore, 10yr to 20yr horizons may be closer to the norm.

Speculators are operating in shorter again time frames, and thus lose the benefits of time to a certain degree (the degree of accuracy)

We can see that currently;

Gold is far above it's central value, after falling far below it's central value in 1980 to 1999. Obviously speculation is rife. Investment value is non-existant at these valuations.

We can also see that the argument of buying gold in times of inflation, are just nonsense.

In the 1980 to 1999 time series;

CPI was above the central value....inflationary
PPI was slightly below.
M1 money supply was expansionary....inflationary
GDP was below central value,....stagnant

Gold.......dived into the grave.

Currently,

CPI is on it's central value, the fear being that it will fluctuate above this value.

PPI is far above it's central value, and should be inflationary to the economy, but currently it is not. This point I believe is central to the explanation of the current environment. The increase in the PPI should drive an increase to the CPI thus offsetting the price increase to the producer to the consumer.

If the PPI increases are not passed to the consumer via the CPI, then profitability of industry must fall, as profit margins are by definition contracting 

Currently through the reporting of Q1, the earnings have increased on aggregate in the US by 13% 

The increase in PPI (commodity prices) has not impacted profit margins. That is simply because the US is operating a monopsony, and China is absorbing the increases in PPI, but is unable to pass them forward into the CPI.

The result is a reallocation of capital from low margin commodity manufacturing in the US to China, with an increase in high margin products and services to the US.

This switch from manufacturing to a service based economy has been underway for some time, but until it becomes fully integrated, may run deficits, hence the Current account deficit.

GDP is pretty much on target.

Interestingly, M1 money supply is actually below central value. Therefore the arguments put forward regarding the Fed printing money to devalue the currency are incorrect.

The large increase in world M1 originates in large part from Japan, and is responsible for the asset class speculation prevalent particularly in gold and currency.

The US$ as the world reserve currency, will always be on one side of speculative operations, and thus will fluctuate quite violently.

S1 


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Interesting read although he is wrong about the 
worst performing asset group in 1970's. It was not bonds it was stocks.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Again it depends upon the "timing" or "pricing" of your purchase. Inherent within corporate bonds, and Treasuries was the ubiquitous call provision, which destroyed the returns due to purchases of bonds at rates approaching 16%.

Thus even when you were right, you might have been wrong.

The time to be bullish on gold was 1998.
If you have just turned bullish, then you must be operating in a speculative time frame. The volatility will I suspect increase now. If so, that indicates a top or topping process.

jog on
d998


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## tech/a (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*

Hmm


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## money tree (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*

the USD in the long term is doomed.

but as for right now.......

being long USDJPY pays very good interest
being short USDJPY costs a heap

therefore, we should see USDJPY rise from here

there are far too many people calling for a USD crash right now. Thats a bottom signal right there.

Im short AUD and long USDJPY


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## noirua (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> the USD in the long term is doomed.
> 
> but as for right now.......
> 
> ...




Hi money tree, I'm a bit concerned about your use of the word " doomed " as far as the US Dollars is concerned. Some thought the Aussie Dollar was doomed once and that was only three or four years ago.


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## money tree (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*

The U.S cannot currently, and never will be able to, service its debt. Let alone repaying it. It cant even cover the interest bill.

Their only hope is hyperinflation.


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## noirua (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> The U.S cannot currently, and never will be able to, service its debt. Let alone repaying it. It cant even cover the interest bill.
> 
> Their only hope is hyperinflation.





Are yes, the American debt is US$8.365 trillion ( about $28,008.82 for each citizen ), as of this morning. The present limit for debt, approved by Congress, is US$9 trillion. The value of the gold reserves in Fort Knox ( 5,051 tons ) was only US$104 billion.( Valued at US$700 per troy ounce, although it is valued at US$42.22 per ounce officially ) 

How much is Alaska worth, bought from Russia for US$1 million. I suppose we should look at all of the assets owned by the Federal Government.

It is said that pension fund assets owned by Americans are worth considerably more that the national debt and share ownership, in addition, is worth many times more than the national debt.


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## tech/a (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> The U.S cannot currently, and never will be able to, service its debt. Let alone repaying it. It cant even cover the interest bill.
> 
> Their only hope is hyperinflation.





I tend to agree---its a balancing act just to contain it.

Maybe that hype about rescouse grabbing (Afganastan,Iraq) isnt that far away from some truth.


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## ice (11 May 2006)

*Re: US  DOLLAR... a crystal clear outlook*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> The U.S cannot currently, and never will be able to, service its debt. Let alone repaying it. It cant even cover the interest bill.
> 
> Their only hope is hyperinflation.





Generally I agree, but never bet against a man carrying a loaded gun.


ice


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## Knobby22 (11 May 2006)

They could always raise taxes to reduce debt.

As the US dollar falls, then this would help them export and compete e.g. against our farmers and steel makers.

The US has always been a debtor nation, which gives them advantages such as lower currency.

I tend to think the fall of the US economy will be slow and long. The US will become less important as time goes by, rather like what happened to England.

If they got a good President, the inherent strength of the US could cause a quick turnaround. Big money may ensure this happens. I think George will be remembered as an awful president with a poor understanding of the world and the obvious mistakes he made will be remembered for about 20 years before they are repeated.


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## ducati916 (11 May 2006)

> The U.S cannot currently, and never will be able to, service its debt. Let alone repaying it. It cant even cover the interest bill.
> 
> Their only hope is hyperinflation.




Nonsense.



> the American debt is US$8.365 trillion




Which is current *total long term debt* 
Therefore, interest payments are; $0.418 per annum

GDP = $12.766 Trillion
Therefore debt service = 3.2% of GDP
Taxed at 38% = revenue of $4.85 Trillion
Coverage rises to 8.6% of taxed GDP

What is of concern are the underfundings for;
Medicare/Medicaid
Social Security
Pensions
Tax reforms

These structural problems are problems, and must be addressed otherwise there will be huge social problems within the US.



> I tend to think the fall of the US economy will be slow and long. The US will become less important as time goes by, rather like what happened to England.




Disagree.
England lost hold of her Empire, that changed the supply side of the equation, thus her COG's rose, squeezing profit margins. Further, the loss of captive markets in which to sell, with attendant monopoloy advantages rather squeezed the demand side of the equation.

None of which really applies to the US.
They rose to dominance on the back of two world wars, that spared their productive infrastructure, but they have never really lost that throttle hold since. They rose not through military conquest, but by economic stranglehold.

China will be gobbled up by the US over time.
Opening their doors to FDI was the first nail in the coffin.
"97-"98 was all about the "Tiger" economies. They crashed and burned.
China is a classic boom & bust scenario playing out.



> They could always raise taxes to reduce debt.
> 
> As the US dollar falls, then this would help them export and compete e.g. against our farmers and steel makers.




Correct.

A Communist government moving into a capitalistic economic model. They will experience all the usual booms and busts that all the more mature capitalistic economies have encountered.........can't happen, Japan, an economic giant in the 1980's suffered deflation for the best part of 20yrs.

Area's of the Chinese economy are already bankruptcies waiting to happen. Steel is one major industry that reports losses quarter after quarter......propped up by government subsidy.

Why do you think the Chinese are fighting tooth and nail to keep the yuan "cheap"?

1....Will a further slide in the US$ push up interest rates? Not really, barring a rise in "protectionism" bills from Congress. Thus the cost of imported goods as evidenced by the CPI, are not going to scare away foregin investment.

2...Will make US exports increasingly competitive in the global marketplace. Exports grew at 10%+ in 2005, and are growing at 11.8% in the first two months of 2006. The US exports $100 billion a month, India doesn't even export $100 billion in a year. Thus US Corporate foreign earnings will take a good bump. (50% of foreign earnings are in Europe 25% from Japan)

3....When China & India open their countries to FDI, the US will be all over them like a rash.
The potential to the US is large.

4...A weaker dollar, will change unit costs, thus placing emphasis on corporate structure, Europe may well have a wave of restructurings, that the US has already been through.

5....A second divergence; the US$ has fallen in the face of rising oil prices.
Odd?
It would imply that the oil producing nations are diversifying out of the US$ into non-dollar investments. Interest rates of the nominal variety have risen with the inflation premium.
What has happened to the "real rate"? The one that indicates economic strength or weakness?



jog on
d998


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## Knobby22 (11 May 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Nonsense.
> 
> A Communist government moving into a capitalistic economic model. They will experience all the usual booms and busts that all the more mature capitalistic economies have encountered.........can't happen, Japan, an economic giant in the 1980's suffered deflation for the best part of 20yrs.
> 
> ...




I disagree somewhat.
In the short term, yes, China will experience a bust however they have three major advantages over the "Tigers" long term.

1. Natural resources that need infrastructure to develop
2. Huge populations with attendant internal economy that will grow over time. In history, China was often the superpower.
3. Bribery, threats, assasinations, so effectively used by the US to gain economic control in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia, will be far less effective in weakening China.

The centralised economy experiment has not been played out yet. It is not Russian communism. They country heads have proven to be very thoughtful and adaptable over long term decisions for the country. Their politicians are not as easily tricked as ours! 

They are wary of foreign capital and are not obverse to taking control of chunks of it. Their methods of population control will enable them to do things the US cannot contemplate easily, though both nations effectively control their media and are effectively one party states.

In short, I don't think China can be written off so easily long term.
And it is the US that are fighting tooth and nail to make the yuan "expensive"

(Think 1984)


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## ducati916 (11 May 2006)

*knobby* 



> I disagree somewhat.
> In the short term, yes, China will experience a bust however they have three major advantages over the "Tigers" long term.
> 
> 1. Natural resources that need infrastructure to develop
> ...




What natural resources?
As to their huge population........this population is a rapidly ageing population, it is older than the US & Europe and their per capita wealth is exponentially lower than the West. This nullifies pretty much their numbers advantage.

Within the US currently, they are arguing about Mexican immigration, however they have access to a young population, and  a numerous one.
So in regards to population, China is actually carrying a large potential liability that will hit before the US.

Save for Ghengis Khan, China has always been introverted.
They have never had to compete on the world stage.
Their learning curve will not be fast enough.

No need for James Bond............cash is king.



> The centralised economy experiment has not been played out yet. It is not Russian communism. They country heads have proven to be very thoughtful and adaptable over long term decisions for the country. Their politicians are not as easily tricked as ours!




Somehow I doubt that.
Since when has a government managed to control their own economy, never mind the world economy?



> They are wary of foreign capital and are not obverse to taking control of chunks of it.




Incorrect.
Their banks, have already been bought up by Citibank etc.
Control the flow of capital & credit..........take over.
As soon as the Chinese allowed FDI, the game was over in the long term.

1984........big brother.......except big brother is not the government, it is the mega-corporation.

jog on
d998


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## noirua (18 May 2006)

I doubt myself that the US debt, as high as it is, really matters that much when we compare the whole value of the United States. Even if debt reaches US$9 trillion this year, it only amounts to a small percentage of the whole country. Afterall, everyone knows they could pay up if they really had to.

The US is playing a careful and clever game as they make the astute oiler, George W Bush, look to be a fool, he certainly is not. Higher inflation in the States, gives the opportunity to raise interest rates, whilst not allowing the GreenBack to rise that much. This looks likely to heighten the fall in commodities and allow the US recovery to continue in a less troublesome inflationary scene.

The view that the US debt is ineradicable, should be proven to be untrue in the long term and I believe they will surprise, as they prove people wrong - including Dr Doom - when they say, the US has found their debts insuperable.


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## wavepicker (18 May 2006)

The rally that began in Dec 2004 was at the completion of a clean 5 wave structure. Since then we have had an upward rally (Wave A) and a decline which is in progress at present or has just finished (wave B). One more leg up to new recovery highs( more than likely to the 100 level in the US Dollar Index) is required(wave C) to complete the upward rally before the long term US Dollar bear re asserts itself.

If the stock market tanks it, people will choose US Dollars first ( at least initially) but this will change later.

So to summarize the in my opinion the US Dollar is not doomed in the short term, deficit or no deficit, however in the long term it looks like it may definately be a different story.

Cheers


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## rederob (18 May 2006)

Knobby
Ducati needs to change his avatar to a turkey so that he be saved by the US President on Thanksgiving Day.
His call on the US dollar will be as accurate as his call on gold, which failed after a few months despite a longer term time frame.
All the economic mumbo jumbo - sorry, precise economic analsis - in the world cannot prevent the US from disappearing down the hole it has been digging for itself in recent decades.
It is fanciful to think that 3 billion people in Asia will not have the economic might in years to come, to oust the 300 million in USA from global dominance.
The US has an energy dependence that makes it susceptible to ongoing inflationary pressures: Despite its foray into Iraq, it has to now partner Canada for the bulk of its oil imports.
While it is possible for the US to meet its debt obligations, in doing so it will expose its fragile economy to the world, and they will not like it.  They may not like it already, as rumour after rumour is touting the euro as a safer haven for cash holdings than the greenback.
I believe the writing has been on the wall for a good few years now, and all we are seeing are the early death throes of the giant of the 20th century.
China's domination of production and consumption in many areas is world-leading.  Where are they slowing down?


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## MARKETWAVES (18 May 2006)

THE  *US*  MAY NEVER  BE  ABLE TO SEVICE  ITS  DEBT ......

  BUT  AT  SAME TIME ...... 
MONEY  WILL  ALWAYS BE  THERE  FOR  THE  SPACE  PROGRAM 
- AINT  THAT  THE  SAD,  SAD  TRUTH ! 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
 THINK  ABOUT  WHAT  THE  SPACE  PROGRAM  REALLY  COSTS ?


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## MARKETWAVES (18 May 2006)

HERE'S  THE DOLLAR  

 There   appears   to  be  alot  of  support ..........( Longer term )
 and it has  16  interset  rate  hikes in it thanks  to  the  Fed  to  help prop it up.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
*  Can  the US Dollar push  down 
 Below  this Tripple bottom looking  support line ?*

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
 If we  break below  this 80.00- it  would  be  the  looking  like  ................

 Well  , just  watch  this  line .....   and  hope  we don't  break  below  it !


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## MARKETWAVES (18 May 2006)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> The rally that began in Dec 2004 was at the completion of a clean 5 wave structure. Since then we have had an upward rally (Wave A) and a decline which is in progress at present or has just finished (wave B). One more leg up to new recovery highs( more than likely to the 100 level in the US Dollar Index) is required(wave C) to complete the upward rally before the long term US Dollar bear re asserts itself.
> 
> If the stock market tanks it, people will choose US Dollars first ( at least initially) but this will change later.
> 
> ...



-------------------------------------------------------------------------

  HERE  IS  A  VISUAL  REPRESENTATION OF  WHAT  I   THINK  WAVE  PICKER  IS ATTEMPTING  TO EXPLAIN  IN  THE  ABOVE POST ...

 I  don't  agree with  this  Wave count .....  but  respect  his  point  of  view .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
( The  low  of Dec 2004 is not  looking like  a  end  of wave 5  )
 If  I  may  respectfully  say  so ......


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## wavepicker (18 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> HERE  IS  A  VISUAL  REPRESENTATION OF  WHAT  I   THINK  WAVE  PICKER  IS ATTEMPTING  TO EXPLAIN  IN  THE  ABOVE POST ...
> 
> ...





Marketwaez, 

as far as  I am concerned this looks like a clean impulse. Whether or not we get a new low and thus an irregular correction (as anything is possible) nobody knows. Under Elliott parlance a new low would still be part of the upward correction that started in December of 2004 and a rally after could easily carry to 100.

What is your take on this? What is your current wave count and what are your technical  reasons for this wavecount?


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## MARKETWAVES (18 May 2006)

As  stated above 

THIS IS A VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF WHAT I THINK WAVE PICKER IS ATTEMPTING TO EXPLAIN IN THE ABOVE POST ...
  --------------------------------------------------------------------
  You  are saying December 2004  is end of wave 5 ... 
 I RESECTFIULLY DON'T  AGREE .


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## wavepicker (18 May 2006)

I respect your opinion  that the December low may not be wave 5 Marketwaves, anything is possible and you maybe 100% right as there are no guarantees in this business. 

Once again I ask you to provide your preferred wavecount and your reasons for quantifying this wavecout????????


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## Knobby22 (18 May 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Knobby
> Ducati needs to change his avatar to a turkey so that he be saved by the US President on Thanksgiving Day.
> His call on the US dollar will be as accurate as his call on gold, which failed after a few months despite a longer term time frame.
> All the economic mumbo jumbo - sorry, precise economic analsis - in the world cannot prevent the US from disappearing down the hole it has been digging for itself in recent decades.
> ...




Yes Rederob, the US relies on its power, technology and economic control for part of its super power status. I don't think it will become weak in my lifetime but the US will become weaker and be reduced to major power status.

The world is changing and it tends to be changing quicker than ever.


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## MARKETWAVES (18 May 2006)

This  is  the  Canadian Dollar 

  I   find  this  to be  very  intersting  at  the  moment .....

  I  need   a llitle time  to  do  the  UsDollar  charts ( Wavepicker )
  Also,  I  am waiting  for  a  response  from Richkid who  has  mysteriously  vanished  in  the  last  3  days ......I have sent him  4 PM's  ---------------------------------------------------------------------

While  the  Stock market  has  been  down for  the  last 4 days  ....
I  wondwer  how  many  traders  are  still  looking  for  12,000  in the Dow ?
   So  much  News  Pollution ............  

  As far  as  I am  concerned  the  Nasdaq  is  not  going  back  to 90's  high of 4000   in  our lifetime
 so  why should  the S&P  or  the  ASX or  the  Dow  go  back  to  their  90's high  ?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Back  to the Canadian Dollar  - This  sure  looks anatomically  correct -

  I'm  looking  for a  dip  here some how  .....  For  the  possible  entry .

  I  think that  price  will  break  this  neck line  in  our  Life-time !

--------------------------------------------------------------------

.


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## MARKETWAVES (18 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> THE  *US*  MAY NEVER  BE  ABLE TO SERVICE  ITS  DEBT ......
> 
> BUT  AT  SAME TIME ......
> MONEY  WILL  ALWAYS BE  THERE  FOR  THE  SPACE  PROGRAM
> ...




What about  the Us Space  program ?

 How  can  anyone  talk  about  the  deficit and  not  put  the  Space  program  in  perspective ?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Untold  Billions  are  being spent there . .............

Where  does  that  money come  from ? .........
 ( Don't  insult your  inteligence  and  say  taxes )

How come no one complains about that funding  ? .................

  It always  seems  to  be there .........

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  And  for  what ,  we  have enough  problems down  here .
  We  willl  just  pollute  space with every  thing  we  have  polluted down  here  with anyway ,  Thats where  we  are  headed .

Whats  your  comment ?


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

ok  Wavepicker 

  The  results  are  here ............Look  at  this  thing  go !
 The dip  happened  as  talked  about  in  the  above  post .....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I  still  havent  heard  anything  back  from Richkid

 - will  post  the  Us dollar charts  as  soon  as  I hear  back  from  him .

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK....* The Purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs
 and lows  based on Fibonacci Retracement Lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective.
 This information is for  Educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations.
 All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility ........


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## wavepicker (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> ok  Wavepicker
> 
> The  results  are  here ............Look  at  this  thing  go !
> The dip  happened  as  talked  about  in  the  above  post .....
> ...





That is great Marketwaves, I am glad you made some $$$.
However all you have done with the USDCAD is reinforce my orignal forecast for the US Dollar!!!!

You have disagreed with my wave counting ofthe US Dollar in an earlier post, I want to know why, and what you beleive to be the most suitable wave structure at present. This you have not done. As such I still beleive my wave count on the US Dollar to be the preferred one at present with a clean impulse that terminated in Dec 2004. This wavecount is backed up by cyclical methods of analysis as well. My analysis still says USD still has one more leg up to new highs before resuming the greater bear campaign. This can come from the current position OR from a marginal new low.(false break)

Cheers


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## websman (20 May 2006)

The US dollar doomed???  Never.

There's plenty of money to go around here...The standard of living in the U.S. is at an all time high.  There's almost no unemployment.  You can get a job practically anywhere.

Us Americans can be an obnoxious and crude bunch, but we are very innovative, stubborn and driven. 

 And, if the U.S. dollar did fall...A Country Boy can survive.  Check it out.

The preacher man says its the end of time
And the Mississippi River shes a goin dry
The interest is up and the stock markets down
And you only get mugged if you go down town
I live back in the woods you see
My woman and the kids and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun a rifle and a four wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk till dawn
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain't too many things these ole boys can't do
We grow good ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Because you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
Cause when them ole boy raised on shotgun
We say grace and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that we don't give a damn

We came from the West Virginia coal mines
And the Rocky Mountains and the Western Skies
And we can skin a buck we can run a trot line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name just HillBilly
My GrandPa taught me to live off the land
And his taught him to be a business man
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway Night
And I'd send him some homemade wine
But he was killed by a man with a switch blade knife
For forty three dollars my friend lost his life
I'd love to spit some Beechnut in that dudes eye
And shoot em' with my ole 45 
Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Were from North California and South Alabam
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck and run a trot line
And a country boy can survive


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> ..........
> I  need   a llitle time  to  do  the  UsDollar  charts ( Wavepicker )
> Also,  I  am waiting  for  a  response  from Richkid who  has  mysteriously  vanished  in  the  last  3  days ......I have sent him  4 PM's  ---------------------------------------------------------------------




Hi MW,
I replied to your pm's but apparently your pm inbox is full, so I sent you an email but no response yet, I've been logged in most of the time on ASF, maybe try pm again.


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

This is my take, just for the sake of it. Wavepicker, can you post a chart of your count or have you posted it in the USD thread?

There's a H&S reversal in that first leg of the correction, has or is about to complete wave B now, then back up to end wave C and hence the larger degree w4 before heading for the doldrums in the final w5....


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

websman said:
			
		

> .............
> And, if the U.S. dollar did fall...A Country Boy can survive.  Check it out.
> 
> The preacher man says its the end of time
> ...




Did you write that webs or is it some sort of classic? Great piece btw, liked it!


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## wavepicker (20 May 2006)

Hey Richkid,

This is my opinion on the US dollar. Don't have a US Doller chart handy that is marked up, but I have posted the EURUSD, which is basically just the reverse of the US Dollar Index chart. One note though for Marketwavez. The reason I have labelled this as a completed 5 wave impulse till Dec 04 was because the preceding wave prior the last move to 1.36 was a contracting triangle. These patterns almost always precede the last move in a sequence(depending on the degree of trend we are talking about), whether that move is an impulse or a correction. They are at many times accompanied with a divergence in oscillators which is exactly what happened in this case. These patterns are littered all over the forex market on a day to day basis and make for great contrarian trades. As RN Elliott said, if wave 2 is a sharp retracement, then expect wave 4 to be sideways in nature and vice a versa

Cheers


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## tech/a (20 May 2006)

Wave

Gotta say thats some of the best analysis I have seen.
Great to see a technician at work.
Both you and Marketwaves back your analysis with well presented charts and explainations.

Your contributions are both valuable and inspiring to the technical people here.

Thanks guys appreciated.


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## wavepicker (20 May 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Wave
> 
> Gotta say thats some of the best analysis I have seen.
> Great to see a technician at work.
> ...





No problems tech/a, but drawing fancy charts is one thing, battling with your emotions and trading psychology is completely another, and that one is the hardest to master for all of us here I think.

Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else. As much as we want them to be correct, many times they are not. I don't know if these charts will be right, but until market conditions turn and make them invalid by another wave count I will stick by them. They only give probabilities and possibilities.  It is up to us to quantify these probabilities.

Cheers


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> No problems tech/a, but drawing fancy charts is one thing, battling with your emotions and trading psychology is completely another, and that one is the hardest to master for all of us here I think.
> 
> Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else. As much as we want them to be correct, many times they are not. I don't know if these charts will be right, but until market conditions turn and make them invalid by another wave count I will stick by them. They only give probabilities and possibilities.  It is up to us to quantify these probabilities.
> 
> Cheers




Very true, the analysis is only a part of it all, but at least from my point of view as an admin hand it makes the time spent getting rid of rampers and dud posts worthwhile to see gems like yours. So thank you on several counts!


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## tech/a (20 May 2006)

Absolutely.

Being a Systems Trader and setting up trading as a part of my Business of creating financial security,and having been in business for over 28 yrs,the emotional side isnt a problem. Particularly as I dont depend on trading success
for any of my day to day funds.

As for discretionary trades I find keeping parcel sizes small enough that losses dont become an emotional drain and using funds that are basically 'disposable'----and in particular having an account that is well in profit ( this account since April last).---works for me.

Both are only parts of a whole.



> Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else.




Indicators 'INDICATE'
In all analysis including fundamental,its how the analysis is applied how the trade is managed and how the business is run that will ultimatelly determine profit.

Identifying being wrong and then handling it when it occures is something everyone has to become familiar with. Many can be very profitable and only be correct in analysis less than 50% of the time.
Master this and you'll master most businesses including this one.


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

Wavepicker ....  I'm  Sorry that I havent got back to you...

I have been waiting for a response from Richkid for 3 days now only to find out  that  my  mail  box  was full. It is saving messages that have the return reciept  which I was unaware of.
I have only been removing the messages that are sent to me from forum  members.
Now I finally read the post above explaining ......
I really like that guy Richkid, and  also  DTM  they  are the  great.

Has anyone heard or seen or talked to DTM?

Sure miss his input around here....DTM come back to us, Please..


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Wave
> 
> Gotta say thats some of the best analysis I have seen.
> Great to see a technician at work.
> ...




The tech a -  Wow, thanx for that ...............

There are messages in here (in this Forum  that you have written about my  work that is to the contrary of what you are now saying.
*
I am not here to hold anyones hand.*
Home work must be done on whats called  Risk to Reward and Position  sizing. Without study in this area a trader is doomed.... Truly.

Exact Buy  signals and Sell signals are up to an individuals *trading strategy and style *. This is what I am so desperately trying to  get a across to you in all this time that has passed now.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I hope that you have looked at the track record that I have taken the time  to post here. '' No  hind  site " ...'It is because of some of the things  you have said about my writings in here that absolutely discouraged and  stopped me from posting at this great forum all this time.

But, thank Richkid and DTM, who persisted and complimented my work in  here that kept me steady to  come  back.
Now that Wavepicker is here you will see what technical analysis is all  about. 
Remember that I am in New York City where the financial capital lurks.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT I AM EXPOSED TO THINGS -

Lots of people here learned technical analysis by hand with pencil and paper ... This makes it a trade, Like  a Tailor, or a Mason. Basically what I am saying is that it is an acquired skill.

Computers are new to technical anlaysis.  one of the biggest problems for  people learning to trade is they look to software and they look to the News. *Well, You have to turn off the news.* Its  all in  the  charts.*ALL CHART  PATTERNS  HAVE OBJECTIVES ' -  *We don't always reach them  but it should have been learned in Chart school 101 ....And never forgotten !

All the great technical analysts learned thier trade by hand with a pencil and a ruler.  If you were in New York here I would show it happening right here in  town.  Again I tell you software is new to the Game.


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## tech/a (20 May 2006)

> There are messages in here that you have written about my work that is to the contrary of what you are now saying .




Hmm dont know that it was ever directed at you.
I have been critical of some who simply make calls---you dont do that you supply reasonable arguement in chart form and from what I have seen excellent work.


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> The tech a -  Wow, thanx for that ...............
> 
> There are messages in here (in this Forum  that you have written about my  work that is to the contrary of what you are now saying.
> *
> ...




It's heartening to see people complimenting each other's work with genuine warmth. Let's try to focus on what we agree on rather than what we disagree on as often as possible, we've seen things go off track before by asking people to prove their trades in fine detail so let's not let that happen again. 

This thread is too good to be taken off track, pm is best, we all have different levels of sensitivity to criticism so I think it's important to be empathetic when putting a point across- something I say to Bronte or Battman may not have the same effect if put the same way to Marketwaves or to Tech. If we can adjust our manner to suit the reciver's sensitivities we will be far more effective....Let bygones by bygones.

Glad to have you all posting openly here, excellent stuff. 

Not sure about DTM's whereabouts, it'll be great to see him back, maybe pm him to see how it's all going MW.


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Hmm dont know that it was ever directed at you.
> I have been critical of some who simply make calls---you dont do that you supply reasonable arguement in chart form and from what I have seen excellent work.




  YOU HAVE  CHANGED  YOUR  TUNE .........


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> No problems tech/a, but drawing fancy charts is one thing, battling with your emotions and trading psychology is completely another, and that one is the hardest to master for all of us here I think.
> 
> Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else. As much as we want them to be correct, many times they are not. I don't know if these charts will be right, but until market conditions turn and make them invalid by another wave count I will stick by them. They only give probabilities and possibilities.  It is up to us to quantify these probabilities.
> 
> Cheers



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*A NOTICE  TO  ALL *

You See these words -
They are truly pearls of wisdom .... Take Heed ... 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you read through the posts of Marketwaves,

You will see these words, this is confirmation .......

It is more difficult to *Exit a trade* than it is to *Enter a  trade*


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## tech/a (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> YOU HAVE  CHANGED  YOUR  TUNE .........




No dont think so.
Perhaps you could direct me to my "old Tune" which is contradictory to my current comments.


My comments are based upon the chart analysis thats been presented its excellent.


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

Richkid .....

It's been almost a yr now and I have many posts 

I was just looking at my title (Junior member?)

I  want to  be top  brass ......
what do I do to get to say Senior Member ?
-  or anything above Junior member  ?

Eventually I  am striving for the title *"Legend "- *
.......... This i know will take time.


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## bullmarket (20 May 2006)

Hi marketwaves

I think your title changes after milestones are reached based on your number of posts.

I noticed mine changed to 'Senior Member' a few months back............but when I think about it, it was also the day after my birthday.......hmmmmmmm   

cheers

bullmarket


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

Wave picker 

  Here  are  2  of  my  Euro/Usd .....  Longerterm  charts

  I  thought  that  you were  asking  me  about  the  Usdollar ?

  - They  are  quite simply  invigorating 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
*1st chart* - 2  distinct  ABC waves - 

* 2nd chart* - shows  the  importance  of breaking through 2300
 You  know  what  has  happend  since  then ......  

  This  thread  is  setup for  the  UsDollar ..... May  be  you  can  setup  a  thread  for  the  Euro 
where  we  can  go  in  and  post  our  thoughts  intraday and  short  term ?

This  way  we  can  leave  this  thread  for  the  * Us  Dollar *


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> Richkid .....
> 
> It's been almost a yr now and I have many posts
> 
> ...



Many of us consider you a legend already MW, so dont worry about a little tag after your name not showing it! There is some detailed discussion of it here, you can add to the thread if you like: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3002&highlight=veteran


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

Wave  picker  

  Heres  another  view Eur/Usd ( Longer Term )....................
A Simple Rising Channel Formation - How could so many not be aware of  this ?

--------------------------------------------------------------------
  Start  a  thread  for  the  Euro  ...........Are  you  ready ?


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> .......
> This  thread  is  setup for  the  UsDollar ..... May  be  you  can  setup  a  thread  for  the  Euro
> where  we  can  go  in  and  post  our  thoughts  intraday and  short  term ?
> 
> This  way  we  can  leave  this  thread  for  the  * Us  Dollar *



Good idea, try posting Euro charts in here from now on guys: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1753&highlight=euro


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

wave picker 

  Time  for US Dollar  Talk .......

 I  am  not  in  disagreement  with  you  about  the  USdollar  being  bullish  shortterm .  It  has suffered a  nasty  downturn  recently . I  just  don't  think  that  we  are  the  bottom  of  a  5th  wave  ..  I  just  don't  see  it   forming .  Thats  ok  if  we  have  differing  wave  counts .  The  main  thing  here  is  we  both  agree that  the  Us dollar is  oversold .In  fact the  whole  world  knows it . 
Going  into  next  week ,  Please  try  to  remeber   that  the  Nasdaq  is  down 8  days  in  a  row . That's  absurd ! ........

If  the  Nasdaq  continues  on  its  Downturnn  and  takes the  Dow  with  it , what  do  you  think  could  happen  to  GOLD AND  T-BONDS ? 

----------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
*
  Elliott Waves is not  a competition  
to see who  has  the  right  or  wrong  wavecount *

Let  us  not  loose sight of  this fact that Wave  counts  vary ...
  We  don't  all  see  the  workld  the  same  way ,
-Its  just  the  way  it  is  . So many times it comes down to a  matter perception

It  all  comes  down  to  the  abilty  to  manage  your  trades  effectivey ..

  Enough  said .,...  I  have  2  separate  wavecount  series  for the  Usdollar   going  forward here  are  2  charts  of  one  series . 
There  may  be  nasty  resistance  at 86.00  lurking  in  the  shadows .
  Have  a  look  here .....


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## MARKETWAVES (20 May 2006)

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here  is  the  main  chart  that  I am  concerned  with ....

  There's been  3  attempts  on  this  line  and may  be acting  as a  magnet  to  attract  Price .  all  that  matters  is  either You believe  price  will  break  below it  in  the  Future  or  stay above  it .
  As  for  me  ...  I  think  it  can pierce below  this  line . (Have  made  my  choice )

  This  would  probably  signal  a  recesssion   at  the  very  least . ....

We  already have  I  believe  its  16 rate  hikes  in a row . Never  before  in  history  has  this happened .  A  Sign  of  the  times ......

  It has  aready been proven that a series of interest  rate  hike  produce  recesssions in which  you  know what happens to the 
USdollar in this  scenerio ...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's  a  link explaing some  of  what's being  said  here   
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1393

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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## RichKid (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> -------------------------------------------------------
> Here's  a  link explaing some  of  what's being  said  here
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1393
> 
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Thanks again MW, that was a great little piece, think I missed it last year or didn't get it at the time, makes more sense now- ahead of its time? I like how you use traditional support and resistance with your EW stuff, adds more "oomph" to your analysis!!


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## wavepicker (20 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Here  is  the  main  chart  that  I am  concerned  with ....
> 
> There's been  3  attempts  on  this  line  and may  be acting  as a  magnet  to  attract  Price .  all  that  matters  is  either You believe  price  will  break  below it  in  the  Future  or  stay above  it .
> ...





Thanks for the charts Marketwaves,

Good work, you have some very excellent points with what you say.
There is no competition here, I just wanted to see your wave count and your reasoning behind the count that's all. Maybe I and others can learn something new to improve my work and trades!!! I always like to see what others doing, as I can learn something from too. I have learnt a lot from your web site also, although I have not visited for a while. ( I have Jamie emailing me often for help and charts- but find it hard to keep up with his requests due to a busy work schedule!!)

I understand where you coming from, especially with the 80 level being tested and re tested numerous times. I hope for your sakes it does not end in a nasty recession.

The elliott wave count in the upper chart is interesting. Again I would not have numbered it that way, but that is just me, I have modelled my counting from what I have observed from Prechter and the crew at EWI. The reason is because I try and keep the counts as simple as possible and I my mind is trained to expect a certain type of look, structure and pattern in the counts. For example your degree wave 2(blue)  is not a much smaller swing than your wave (blue). Also you wave 2 (red) is a much smaller swing your wave 4(red), the same goes with the black waves. Now all this is not to say this wrong, because it is not. The numbering comforms to all elliott rules.

But once again, the way I number my charts is different, because I am looking for something different, that is all. I have been wrong with my counts many many times, and I will continue to be wrong as it is impossible to be right always. There can always be more than one count going on at any one degree of trend. We have our preferred counts and then our alternate counts. What I have been trying to do using other forms of analysis(which I won't go into depth right now) to narrow down the alternates to make life simpler and clearer

There is no right or wrong here, as the old saying goes "IF IT WORKS-LEAVE IT"  

Good trading and please keep up the good work and the charts, I and others are always interested in seeing them


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## websman (20 May 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Did you write that webs or is it some sort of classic? Great piece btw, liked it!




It's a song by Hank Williams Jr.


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## coyotte (21 May 2006)

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Here  is  the  main  chart  that  I am  concerned  with ....
> 
> There's been  3  attempts  on  this  line  and may  be acting  as a  magnet  to  attract  Price .  all  that  matters  is  either You believe  price  will  break  below it  in  the  Future  or  stay above  it .
> ...






There is a old rule of US Trading 

Rule of 4 breakout
When a price breaks or fails to break a resistance or support line on the 4th attempt ----- the outcome will be significant and a big move can be expected , the 4th attempt at any angle falls into this category.

The initial penetration is not the key --- The price action immediately following is the factor.


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## MARKETWAVES (21 May 2006)

ok  *C*oyote 

  Seems  like  you  know  what  you  are  saying ........

  Can you share  some   of  your  other  Thoughts  in  here  right  away /?

  GOT  ANY  OTHER  GOODIES ?
*
Please,  let's  see them  .................*

--------------------------------------------------------------------


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## wavepicker (21 May 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> There is a old rule of US Trading
> 
> Rule of 4 breakout
> When a price breaks or fails to break a resistance or support line on the 4th attempt ----- the outcome will be significant and a big move can be expected , the 4th attempt at any angle falls into this category.
> ...




Coyote,

I attended a lecture by Bill Mclaren, an american who now lives in Australia who advocates a very similiar thing. 
He said that if the market cannot break resistance on the 4th attempt it will trend the opposite way, If it does, then it will trend heavily in the direction of the trend.

I have a lot of respect for him, he could teach quite a few people here about T/A.


----------



## wavepicker (21 May 2006)

I think the following chart example ( which is 1 hr gold) is what marketwaves is trying to say

He has a very good point


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## tech/a (21 May 2006)

Without getting into an arguement but stating my experience.



> I have a lot of respect for him, he could teach quite a few people here about T/A.




Followed Mclaren for years when he published his daily summary free.

The gaol posts were constantly moved,possibilities,could be's if--- never anything conclusive.You could never take a trade based upon the analysis.What was expected for the next day and week *when you read back * on it NEVER happened ( I used to cut paste and save them so I could do this).

*ADMITTEDLY*
It was his predictive analysis,more Gann based than anything else.

The analysis presented here by Wavepicker and Marketwaves,with charts that clarify the analysis are basic,Elliot,Conventional Technical analysis and Fibbonacci.

Personally I dont see ambiguity.


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## wavepicker (21 May 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Without getting into an arguement but stating my experience.
> 
> 
> 
> ...






tech/a,

You are right. He does have a tendancy to change his mind a little on his web site. I have noticed that as well, especially in this last bull move of 3 years. I guess like a lot of people he just revises depending on market conditions
That lecture I attended, he did teach a lot of excellent principles on how markets move, based on the patterns and behavoir of trends. I certainly picked up a hell of a lot of stuff that was worth knowing.
The Gann stuff, well that is another story all together. I could never come to terms with Gann analysis. For me, I just found the elliott stuff easier to apply and have had more success with it.

Cheers


----------

