# HLS - Healius Limited



## nomore4s (28 May 2008)

Some positive signs for this stock appearing on the chart imo.

Clear capitulation from its high flying days at around $9.

But massive volume came in around $6.50 to provide some support before a clear selling climax to around $5.00 followed by the rally back to $6.40ish.

The volume bubble of the last few months is a very postive sign imo, while someone(weak hands?) is off loading, the stock has clearly stopped going down, even the last wave down didn't break $5.60 causing a very shallow ST (probably becoming more like a last point of support then a secondary test as it didn't really test the $5.00 area again).

This large amount of volume changing hands could cause quite an explosive move if it does move up, alot of the floating supply could be held by strong hands looking for higher prices and alot of the weaker hands will already be out of the stock.

This smacks of accumulation imo, but time will tell. The reaction to todays weakness will be telling, another test of $5.60 - $5.80? Or maybe support at $6.00

I don't hold - yet but will be watching closely.

For discussion only.


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## nomore4s (13 June 2008)

*Re: PRY - Primary Health Care Limited*

Continuing postitive signs for PRY for the moment.

Has been very resilent in the current market weakness.

The last 3 days have closed off the lows.
And look at todays bar, very good close on high volume - someone willing to buy in during the weakness?

The line of least resistance appears to be up, it is certainly finding it difficult to go down atm (likely to change now I've posted this)

Looks to be building a springboard here imo. The response of course is all important.


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## Dutchy3 (25 February 2009)

*Re: PRY - Primary Health Care Limited*

I'll kick this one along

For the last three days this one refuses to make up its mind.

The markets tanked (tanking) and yet this one not quite ready to join the throng ....

The big blacks have been absent for a bit and the white days have attracted reasonable volume.

5.30 looks to be an issue ... at the same time 4.80 seems to have some support .... how will this one sort itself?


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## ectoplasm (5 January 2010)

Hi Dutchy3,

DaveMac mentioned PRY in the "Practical Elliott Wave Trading" thread. Looks like gap resistance is the target - however commodities are probably where the action is ATM, unless you want a more pedestrian approach 

Weekly chart:


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## ectoplasm (9 January 2010)

ectoplasm said:


> Hi Dutchy3,
> 
> DaveMac mentioned PRY in the "Practical Elliott Wave Trading" thread. Looks like gap resistance is the target - however commodities are probably where the action is ATM, unless you want a more pedestrian approach
> 
> Weekly chart:




Commodities have been where the action is last week, but I expect PRY to retest resistance next week before giving $6.60 a tryout on its way to $7 gap resistance..

Chart:


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## rohdeo (6 March 2010)

Is this stock a good buy at the moment? 

I noticed that the stock has been severely sold down ($4.07) and yet the financial indicators seem to be favourable with a PE of 9.7, a share price to book value ratio of less than one and good growth prospects.

Can anyone help me out as to why a defensive stock such as this appears to so undervalued? Is it the popularity of the resource sector at the moment?

Cheers

Rohan


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## ROE (6 March 2010)

This stock reminds me of ABC learning but that is my opinion only....
Business model are similar.

I dont own the stock and I would never own it 
if you want to know more you can PM me for a list of reasons for no go zones


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## So_Cynical (6 March 2010)

ROE said:


> This stock reminds me of ABC learning but that is my opinion only....Business model are similar.
> 
> I dont own the stock and I would never own it  if you want to know more you can PM me for a list of reasons for no go zones




What's with the PM? just tell us what you think...personalty i cant see any comparison, and i cant see PRY falling over with such manageable debt levels and consistent cash flows.



rohdeo said:


> Is this stock a good buy at the moment?
> 
> I noticed that the stock has been severely sold down ($4.07) and yet the financial indicators seem to be favourable with a PE of 9.7, a share price to book value ratio of less than one and good growth prospects.
> 
> ...




Hi Rohan..PRY has also caught my attention over the last few weeks and with Fridays low of 4.03 i thought i better have a decent look at the business as ive never been a follower.


First listed 03 July 1998 
Market Cap 1,960,190,677
Net profit 76 mill (6 Months Ended 31 Dec)
Trading revenue 652 mill (6 Months Ended 31 Dec)
Total Liabilities 1,158 Bill (6 Months Ended 31 Dec)
Gearing Ratio 28.7 (Net Debt/Net Debt + Equity) (6 Months Ended 31 Dec)
Top 20 hold over 75% (well did until all this selling )
Has a 12 year fully franked, interim & final dividend payment history

http://www.primaryhealthcare.com.au...26&PageName=Presentation of Half Year Results

The balance sheet looks very good IMO, falling debt to equity ratios 6 months on 6 months. 45.7 > 36.3 > 28.7 so they probably wont need to raise any more money, the dividend reinvestment plan will probably do.

I think it would be easy to come to the conclusion that the worst is over, even if the industry uncertainty will be around for perhaps many years...what cant be argued against is the growth potential of the industry in general, the population is aging and health care is a growth industry...its the funding levels that are uncertain.

PRY's dividend record date is the 12th of March so perhaps the SP could keep falling over the next few weeks. :dunno: As the chart shows, buying at under 4.10 any-time over the last 3 years has been good buying...all capital raising have been at significantly higher levels.

Disclosure - i don't hold but am seriously considering....please do your own research as this is my opinion only. 
~


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## brty (12 March 2010)

I purchased this stock at these levels, buying against support of $4.00. I am pretty much a technical trader, but even the fundamentals on this one looked OK to me.

I think what ROE was getting at is that the assets of the company are mostly goodwill, yet I would put the goodwill of medical practises well ahead of the goodwill associated with child-care in the ABC case.

Maple-Brown Abbott, a boutique investment manager have been purchasing, the managing director recently spent half a mil on more stock. Personally I think they are positive signs. At a current grossed up yield of >10% (assuming 2nd half divs are as expected), growth in new medical centre roll-out, I will back the truck up if it gets down to $3.60.

Maybe everyone is just too scared to do anything but follow the crowd these days, is the only reason I can come up with as to why this stock is at these levels.

brty


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## Unnamed User (12 March 2010)

*Re: Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View*

No disrespect to any one here but i have to admit i am amazed at people asking why has the price fallen.

It should be blatantly obvious.

I'm not saying it should have fallen as much as it has, although i believe there is more bad news to come, but the reasons as to why it has is as follows,

Reduced government fee payments from November have impacted more than was expected on the Pathology business and the companies strategy of lifting co payments has turned out to be a very poor choice, in comparison to say Sonic Health, which rarely puts a foot wrong.

The Diagnostics Imaging division EBITDA fell almost 30% below expecations.

All 3 divisions had reduced revenue and profit.

In short i believe investors are now questioning the management of this company as they overpaid for Symbion and the way they have handled the new challenges that have been lumped on all in this space gives major cause for concern.

Not too mention the company refusing to give guidance for the full year.

Companies that downgrade their forecasts usually do it at least one more time as well......


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## So_Cynical (12 March 2010)

Well summed up brty and in total agreement with you.

I've had a buy order @ 3.99 sit there all week  upped it to 4.03 today and still couldn't get filled....i really should stop being so cheap, its that sort of low balling that has allowed so many bargains to get away from me.


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## Tarry Not (14 March 2010)

Holding my breath, I 'jumped in' Friday at $4.09.

On a weekly basis, it looks like it may have made a double bottom and historically it has always come back from such a position.  It traded up for most of the day on slightly increased volume hence my entry. I have a fairly tight S/L and the possible upside looks a fair bet against the downside.

U.U. (above) makes correct observations and like him/her, I am not sure it should have been sold off to such a degree.  He/she doesn't say why it may fall further.

Now that I'm immersed, I'll keep holding my breath.


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## So_Cynical (14 March 2010)

I've got a funny feeling im gona make a balls up of my next buy...ive got an order in for PRY at 4.03 but still feel that CSR can rebound faster and now looking at Metcash seriously. :dunno: all the doubters are weighing on me. 

Maybe just step back for a week and clear my head.


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## brty (14 March 2010)

When I usually look at the fundamentals of various companies, I get disappointed and quickly dismiss them from my trading as a general rule.

Perhaps I am missing something here, and would appreciate some expanded arguments from the bears on this stock.

What I see, from a fundamental aspect is the following...

A role out of more medical super centres, from 45 in June of '09, to 50 now with further expansion of 4 in '10. Acquisition of 87 new GP practises. As these grow (as they mostly seem to because of rising and ageing population), the benefits will flow over to the other areas of the company.

A comparison of the feature of profitability that I particularly like is cashflow from operating activities, especially per share.

Looking over the last few years we have for the Dec half year, to compare like with like....

year....05.....06.....07....08....09   

cps.....17....23.5...27....13.7..21.2  

SP.....$12....$12....$6....$4.....$4

A company that provides a cashflow of > 10%, a share price a third of what it was with a similar cashflow 4 years ago, has good growth prospects, debt under control, and pays a decent dividend 100% fully franked, what am I missing?? These sort of value plays don't seem to come along that often, in top 200 companies.

brty


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## Unnamed User (14 March 2010)

Tarry Not said:


> U.U. (above) makes correct observations and like him/her, I am not sure it should have been sold off to such a degree.  He/she doesn't say why it may fall further.




My original post wasn't so much about the company as such but more about the reasons for it being slammed by investors.

My reasoning for further falls, that may not happen of course, is that generally companies that report downgrades very often follow up with another one or two.

I also believe that investors have lost confidence in the mangement after some very poor choices they have made and refusing to give full year guidance was the nail in the coffin for them , imo.

Investors have some other choices, such as Sonic Health, where there is little uncertainty with future earnings (Full year guidance disclosed) and have top shelf management with a track record second to none.

brty makes some good points and PRY is far from dead in the water but there are alternative businesses to invest in with less challenges, more transparency and better management.


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## brty (14 March 2010)

Thanks Unnamed User for your input. 



> Sonic Health, where there is little uncertainty with future earnings (Full year guidance disclosed)




And such things are fully priced into the share price. Between the 2 companies, both of which appear quite good, I would think that PRY has the greater chance of surprising on the upside than SHL. SHL has much of its business in UK, USA, Germany and NZ. By reporting in $Aus the potential volatility in earnings becomes much greater especially given what has been happening to the Euro and BP recently. I am also of the opinion that given the GFC effect on each of those countries balance sheets, one would expect the respective governments to start reigning in expenditures in the not so distant future, health will suffer along with the rest. 

Australia on the other hand is in a relatively better position and with an election coming up this year, one could expect a slightly higher spending in the coming budget. This is likely to benefit both companies.

Given that cashflow per share (as a percentage of share price) is 5.1% for the Dec half for PRY, 3.75% for the Dec half for SHL, and that the Div of PRY is 100% franked compared to 35% franked for SHL, I can see a little more upside in PRY over the short to medium term compared to SHL.

Unnamed User, you have mentioned twice that....



> generally companies that report downgrades very often follow up with another one or two.



.... where do you see this bad news coming from, which areas of the company, and how do you see this impacting cashflow???

brty


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## So_Cynical (14 March 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> Investors have some other choices, such as Sonic Health, where there is little uncertainty with future earnings (Full year guidance disclosed) and have top shelf management with a track record second to none.
> 
> brty makes some good points and PRY is far from dead in the water but there are alternative businesses to invest in with less challenges, more transparency and better management.






brty said:


> And such things are fully priced into the share price. Between the 2 companies, both of which appear quite good, I would think that PRY has the greater chance of surprising on the upside than SHL.
> 
> Given that cashflow per share (as a percentage of share price) is 5.1% for the Dec half for PRY, 3.75% for the Dec half for SHL, and that the Div of PRY is 100% franked compared to 35% franked for SHL, I can see a little more upside in PRY over the short to medium term compared to SHL.
> 
> brty




This kinda remind's me of a discovery i made many years ago on my travels.

"tangent warning"

Many years ago i stayed a few days in a nice, cheapish caravan park, well run with nice people and a great atmosphere...one day i was chatting with the owner and asked him why the first 70 or so meters of the road into the park was bitumen and the rest gravel.

Well he tells me that the bitumen costs $500 a meter and the gravel $100 a meter and at the moment he didn't have the money to do all the roads but had to do the first 70 meters because there were some caravaners that simply refused to travel on gravel roads.

Without the first 70 meters of bitumen he would lose half his business, and even then he still lost a lot of business because once the caravaners noticed the bitumen ran out, many changed there mind and would leave.

I though this was pretty bizarre...but ive come to understand some people need the road ahead of them all paved and pretty and secure 'looking' others can look beyond the gravel and simply see it as a road taking them to there destination.

AS suggested above by brty, the Sonic share price has all the positives factored in and in my opinion shows no value entry, while Primary clearly does...which is why im interested in the first place.

2 year comparison chart below.
~


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## Unnamed User (14 March 2010)

I had no intention in turning this into a Primary vs Sonic debate but was trying to point out to those that were asking why the recent fall, as to why.

I chose Sonic as an example of the converse nature of the directors but i'm sure there are other businesses that would show the same converse nature.

I wouldn't buy Primary yet but that's just me and everyone has their reasons for buying certain stocks, it's a personal choice.


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## Tarry Not (29 March 2010)

Hi Guys,

After 'jumping in' on 12 March (at $4.09) I am feeling a little smug atm (wrong, very wrong; I know), but I wonder what our more learned contributors feel about PRY now (in light of recent movements).  In particular where it might go - up or down.
Should I take a breath, or bail out and take some profits? *smiles* (smug bar steward I am).
Seriously, I'd be interested to hear.

Cheers,  Not so old Tarry Not.


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## So_Cynical (29 March 2010)

Tarry Not said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> After 'jumping in' on 12 March (at $4.09) I am feeling a little smug atm (wrong, very wrong; I know), but I wonder what our more learned contributors feel about PRY now (in light of recent movements).  In particular where it might go - up or down.
> Should I take a breath, or bail out and take some profits? *smiles* (smug bar steward I am).
> ...




Go ahead feel smug...i like that smuggy feeling  you me and brty got it right (short term) ROE and Unnamed User got it wrong, at least so far...still an easy 10% is a wonderful thing.

I wish i hadn't been so cheap now and missed out on the low...The money i was trying to buy PRY with eventually was used to buy Gunns, and now GNS has turned against me  oh well.

So Tarry care to tell us what your exit strategy was when u entered PRY? you did have an exit strategy right?, a price target, anything???


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## Tarry Not (30 March 2010)

To be honest, the broad strategy was to let any profits run.  Notwithstanding that, I had and still have the idea that I'd look for a 'jump-out' point via a reversal as indicated by candlestick indicators.  I always have a pretty firm (and tight) stop loss at purchase price minus 3%.

The smug one.


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## brty (30 March 2010)

Smugness is not something we should be doing in trading.

I also felt 'smug' with this one, which is one of the reasons I exited today. We have had 10-12 days in a row of rises, a move of 10% without a correction, and today a larger seller emerged (apart from me  ), judging by the increase in volume, right at resistance.

I intend to re-enter at some stage, sideways to slightly down for a week or two would probably set up another buy point for me.

brty


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## Unnamed User (30 March 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Go ahead feel smug...i like that smuggy feeling  you me and brty got it right (short term) ROE and Unnamed User got it wrong, at least so far...still an easy 10% is a wonderful thing.




I would be interested to see what i got wrong?

The sp appreciation doesn't make my prediction of more bad news to come wrong and the closest thing i can see to me being wrong is where i said i wouldn't buy just yet, but of course i may be wrong on that and will gladly put my hand up if i am indeed wrong but atm i am neither right or wrong.


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## ROE (30 March 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Go ahead feel smug...i like that smuggy feeling  you me and brty got it right (short term) ROE and Unnamed User got it wrong, at least so far...still an easy 10% is a wonderful thing.




it's not a matter of right or wrong it something I wouldnt put money into 
it in the first place so there is no loss or gained for me there ...

this stock can goes below $4 and I still dont want to put money into it. 
It doesnt mean the stock wont make money or goes up...

Lot of stocks I dont buy make money or goes up 20% 50% or 100% 

15-20 stocks or so I got so I missed out 1000 of other stocks but that
a deliberate decision..

it gives me no pleasure seeing people losing their hard earned cash
in any stock crash.....so if you make money good on you and hope everyone can get a decent return for their cash


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## So_Cynical (30 March 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> I would be interested to see what i got wrong?
> 
> The sp appreciation doesn't make my prediction of more bad news to come wrong and the closest thing i can see to me being wrong is where i said i wouldn't buy just yet, but of course i may be wrong on that and will gladly put my hand up if i am indeed wrong but atm i am neither right or wrong.






Unnamed User said:


> My reasoning for further falls, that may not happen of course.




Well so far your wrong, but of course you may well be proved right later down the road...or conclusively proved wrong :dunno: you posted in the negative and stated reasons for "further falls" and put forward a valid argument..however the last bottom has since proven to be just that "a bottom" the proved to be a good entry point for a quick and easy 10%
or so profit.

Now to be honest my target was a little bit higher than the mid 4.40's but i never took the trade anyway as the SP rallyed away from me.

________________


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## Unnamed User (1 April 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Well so far your wrong, but of course you may well be proved right later down the road...or conclusively proved wrong :dunno: you posted in the negative and stated reasons for "further falls" and put forward a valid argument..however the last bottom has since proven to be just that "a bottom" the proved to be a good entry point for a quick and easy 10%
> or so profit.
> 
> Now to be honest my target was a little bit higher than the mid 4.40's but i never took the trade anyway as the SP rallyed away from me.
> ...




Maybe i should have been clearer in my viewpoint of further falls ( Although i was and you left it out of your quote ) but i thought it was clear as i was stating that when companies give profit downgrades they usually have another one or two that follow the original one.

Here is the full quote



> My reasoning for further falls, that may not happen of course, is that generally companies that report downgrades very often follow up with another one or two.




Therefore my view for further falls wasn't for now but when either the company volountarily advises the market ( But considering they refused to give guidance this may not happen ) or when they are forced to next reporting season.

Of course since they have given no guidance, the market will have its own expectations and the sp will be at the discretion of those expectations, either positive or negative.

Well done to those who have made a profit so far, I hope there are many more to come for you.


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## Tarry Not (3 April 2010)

I don't come here often; as such I'm pretty new.  I have to say, I am (only) slightly disappointed to see some of the antagonism within our community.  Come on guys, can we make it a little more pleasant for us less tense about matters?  If someone says something that grates on you or gets 'up your nose' in some way or another, wouldn't it be better to simply ignore it? I'm sure it would make for a more pleasant experience for all of us.  After all, the stuff we are talking about here is not of earth shattering importance; is it?

As an aside, I just had to say that I sold my parcel of PRY on April 1 for a handy 9.28% net profit over the twenty days.  Feeling rather chuffed at that.

Now; to see if I can make the week a complete success, I'm off to see if I can straighten out my drive.  

Fore!!!


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## Julia (3 April 2010)

Tarry Not said:


> II have to say, I am (only) slightly disappointed to see some of the antagonism within our community.  Come on guys, can we make it a little more pleasant for us less tense about matters?  If someone says something that grates on you or gets 'up your nose' in some way or another, wouldn't it be better to simply ignore it? I'm sure it would make for a more pleasant experience for all of us.  After all, the stuff we are talking about here is not of earth shattering importance; is it?



I don't see much antagonism in any personal sense.   It's a forum:  people come to exchange views.  We can learn a lot by having our opinions challenged imo.


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## So_Cynical (3 April 2010)

Julia said:


> I don't see much antagonism in any personal sense.   It's a forum:  people come to exchange views.  We can learn a lot by having our opinions challenged imo.




Well he did say he was only slightly disappointed 



Tarry Not said:


> I am (only) slightly disappointed to see some of the antagonism within our community.




Anyway i would like to think that i haven't discouraged anyone from sticking there neck out a little and actually having an opinion one way or another, as there's so many posters here who like the fence sit and make on committal posts when it comes to SP direction. 

Tarry for the record i think you jumped to early, 4.60 something was my target...still 9% for 20 days is a good result...however one thing ive clearly noticed with my own trades over the last 18 months is that, if a stock is good for a fast 10% then its likely to be good for 15 or 20% over 40 or 60 days....IME


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## brty (12 April 2010)

Two interesting announcements on Friday. Firstly a value fund has emerged as a large shareholder, Harris Associates. They started buying at a price of $5.75 in December.

Secondly the managing director sold 4 million shares on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, about 11% of his holdings at prices ~$4.42-45.

The market has judged the sale of the MD shares in a poor light, currently trading at $4.18-19.

I am currently out of this and waiting to see if it gives a buy signal. The speed of the current downdraft negates this as a buy for me at support, until it slows to a meander.

brty


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## So_Cynical (1 May 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Tarry for the record i think you jumped to early, 4.60 something was my target...still 9% for 20 days is a good result...however one thing ive clearly noticed with my own trades over the last 18 months is that, if a stock is good for a fast 10% then its likely to be good for 15 or 20% over 40 or 60 days....IME




Well PRY has returned back to trade under 4.09 today..have to say im a little surprised as i really did think it was good for a slightly higher high..but hey im a punter and haven't been having a good run lately so its prob to be expected.

Anyway the SP begs the question...is PRY good for another easy 10 or 12% :dunno: there's so many ranging stocks ATM, and perhaps PRY will go along and present many in and out opportunity's, at about this level over the next 4 or 8 months.
~


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## brty (1 May 2010)

I bought back into this stock on the close on Friday at 4.07. I've been waiting for the pullback.

Given the CEO and managing director has just spent a bit over $6m on options to buy this stock at $4 (expiring Oct 2010) and $5 (expiring Apr 2011), I would not expect much more downside, but happy to buy lower, the $3.60 I mentioned earlier if it were to get there.

brty


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## Tarry Not (3 May 2010)

It's with bated breath I watch for another opportunity.  For me, there is just a little too much nervousness in the markets over the past few days, so I'm looking on.  Rather hoping there may be an opportunity to 'launch' myself into PRY again at a little less than $4.00 - we'll see.

Your 40 - 60 day take is an interesting one, Cynical one.  I'll watch more closely.


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## brty (17 May 2010)

Just dumped my shares in this, missed the high prices on Friday and the price has retreated way too quickly for me to stay bullish in the short term.

However I will continue to look for a new entry at lower prices as I am still bullish in the medium term. The CEOs options mean a price of ~$4.60 by October this year, and ~$5.30 by April next year for him to break even on the purchase of the options.

brty


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## ROE (24 May 2010)

brty said:


> Just dumped my shares in this, missed the high prices on Friday and the price has retreated way too quickly for me to stay bullish in the short term.
> 
> However I will continue to look for a new entry at lower prices as I am still bullish in the medium term. The CEOs options mean a price of ~$4.60 by October this year, and ~$5.30 by April next year for him to break even on the purchase of the options.
> 
> brty




Stock options is a scam, I be weary of company that offer option without regards for its cost.

he doesnt lose any money if stock doesnt get to that level, he just doesnt exercise them
so stocks give them all the upside but none on the down side .. great isn't it  

stock options is a good incentives to give greedy executives to short change its long term shareholder...
by doing stupid stuff to increase short term earning and jack up stock price so they can exercise and
make profit long term shareholder will be the one that wear the consequences.

good luck


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## brty (24 May 2010)

Hi Roe,

I have gleaned the following from the ASX website, this is what is in the public domain..

From the pdf document lodged....



> The persons named in Part 3 of this Form in respect to the dates 13 to 16 April 2010 have acquired call options for the numbers shown there for the payments shown there.....




The Grantor of the options Deutsche Bank AG.

I find it extremely unlikely that Deutsche Bank would grant options without payment when the statement to the exchange stated there was payment. These options are over issued shares, not "to be issued shares".

If you know of anything different can you please post it. You really shouldn't be calling it a 'scam' unless you have evidence otherwise.

Interestingly PRY came out with a 'similar' statement to SHL in that current profits would be affected by a slowdown in pathology, PRY opened down a few cents after the announcement compared to SHL that lost 20%. SHL appears to have been priced for perfection while PRY had already been hammered. All good in hindsight.

brty


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## ROE (24 May 2010)

brty said:


> Hi Roe,
> 
> I have gleaned the following from the ASX website, this is what is in the public domain..
> 
> ...




Ok maybe I over use the word scam, my apology but I wasn't  targeting PRY 
but it may come out across like that in a PRY thread 

I was generalising it "I say be careful of company"...

I don't know much about PRY arrangement as I have no interest in it just playing devil advocates 

but regarding to the call option there maybe a possibility the company pay for those call options and not individual ... worth a check?


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## brty (6 August 2010)

Couldn't help myself, bought a few thousand of these today. Will probably buy a few thousand more next week.

The share price is just meandering around these low levels. The large holders have been buying over the last couple of months, as per the substantial shareholders statements issued.

At a grossed up yield of over 10%, the MD having options that expire in October (at a strike price of $4), I'm happy owning this at these prices.

brty


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## Julia (6 August 2010)

brty said:


> Couldn't help myself, bought a few thousand of these today. Will probably buy a few thousand more next week.
> 
> The share price is just meandering around these low levels. The large holders have been buying over the last couple of months, as per the substantial shareholders statements issued.
> 
> ...



brty, where do you get the grossed up yield of over 10% from?  E-trade is quoting the yield at 5.6%, fully franked, but that would only bring it to around 8% grossed up, wouldn't it?  Maybe E-trade's figures are out?


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## So_Cynical (6 August 2010)

8.2% gross is what i make the last 2 divis to be at today's close..its hard to see the divi holding with the fall in revenue and profit that PRY have reported, the coming divi announcement will in all likelihood have a substantial impact on the SP....i came very close to buying some PRY earlier in the week.

---------------------------------

Edit: There last market update flagged a 10 cent final divi, so 25 cents for the year FF..grossed up its still under a double figure yield...just

http://www.primaryhealthcare.com.au...ame=Primary Health Care Limited Market Update


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## noie (6 August 2010)

Julia said:


> brty, where do you get the grossed up yield of over 10% from?  E-trade is quoting the yield at 5.6%, fully franked, but that would only bring it to around 8% grossed up, wouldn't it?  Maybe E-trade's figures are out?




I dont trust it as far as i can throw it!

I have been looking for *SOLID* figures collected in the one place (cheap) but have found so many bad sites.. including e-trade (their valuation model looks a little odd..)


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## brty (6 August 2010)

In the last market update (21/5/10), it included the following about the dividend....



> Primary anticipates declaring a final dividend for FY2010 of 10 cents per share. This will give a total dividend of 25 cents per share for the full year, fully franked.




At today's price of $3.48 that gives a straight yield of 7.18% and a grossed up yield of over 10%.

Have I worked this out incorrectly?? My suspicion is a surprise to the upside, mainly because of the options of the managing director.

I never trust the figures from any source other than company announcements. If I see some interesting ones from another site, I will go and check them myself.

brty


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## So_Cynical (11 April 2012)

Over a year and a half since the last post in this thread.

I have revisited because PRY has once again come to my attention due to its falling share price, i have noticed that every time over the last 2 years it has got down below $3 its has subsequently bounced thus offering opportunities to exit with good profit...even if the bounces are getting lower over time.

Will this time be different? :dunno: the continuing overall down trend is a bit of a worry, still revenues seem to have stabilised as has profit and debt and the dividend has some scope to be lifted over time from the current 50% payout level..div yield 4.8%

First one of my old PRY charts from 3 years ago...from page 1 of this thread.
~





~
And a new 4 year chart.
~


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## piggybank (13 December 2013)

P&F Update.


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## pixel (24 March 2014)

Last Monday's ex-div (9c ff) was follwed by the usual sell-off; interestingly, the gap left by last month's reversal pattern seems to act as support, suggesting sellers won't accommodate buyers any lower.




I am buying again; trailing stop at $4.67.


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## Junior (21 April 2015)

Impressive run up from PRY in the past few months, it's now in the top ten shorted stocks list.  I cannot work out why either of these things have occurred (i.e. the out-performance or why it's being shorted - perhaps short positions a result of out-performance?)

Anyone have any insight here?  Anyone willing to put up a chart with some analysis?


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## pixel (21 April 2015)

Junior said:


> Impressive run up from PRY in the past few months, it's now in the top ten shorted stocks list.  I cannot work out why either of these things have occurred (i.e. the out-performance or why it's being shorted - perhaps short positions a result of out-performance?)
> 
> Anyone have any insight here?  Anyone willing to put up a chart with some analysis?




Given the large Short position, the recent sell-off shouldn't come as a surprise. I could also understand the rationale that could make punters want to Short:
1. speculation that the Government's efforts to curb medical spending might cut into PRY's revenue
2. speculation that the lenders of shortable stock - usually large instos - may like the sp to drop without them having to add directly to the selling pressure. They can increase their holdings at lower cost




Regardless of which assumption prevails, I would guess that sooner or later - probably before end of June - the Shorts will start to be covered with the obvious result, pleasing all holders, of which I'm currently not one. I'll wait for a technical signal that the bottom is in place.


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## VSntchr (21 April 2015)

Nice post Pixel. 
Gives some good things to consider from the market/technical perspective.

Fundamentally, I note that PRY has had a long overdue board reshuffle and their accounting treatment of acquired doctors has been mostly changed which removes a red flag that many analysts have had with this company. It could be entering a new stage, but we will have to see over the next few reports. 

Technically, the break above $5.00 looked good IMO - it smashed through long-term horizontal resistance. We could just now be seeing the pullback to test the breakout level. Today's shorts are tomorrows longs, so any resumption of the up-trend could result in a swift move as shorts cover. 

Not holding anymore myself, I did *trade *it recently but took a small loss


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## pixel (21 April 2015)

good point too, VS;
$5 could be seen as something of a psychological hurdle, although, on precedent, I'd have picked $4.95 and now $5.16 as break-and-retest levels.


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## Junior (21 April 2015)

Cheers guys.

I have a stop in place at $5 so will probably end up selling in the short term, we'll see.


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## pixel (21 April 2015)

Junior said:


> Cheers guys.
> 
> I have a stop in place at $5 so will probably end up selling in the short term, we'll see.




Looking at the Fibonacci levels, I can see potential support a couple of cents below $5 with swift take-off likely if that Fib 61.8% proves holding support.




but it's your trade and I don't intend to influence your decision.


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## Junior (1 May 2015)

Thanks Value and Pixie.

Sold PRY at open this morning.  Decided to lock in the gain, can't identify a catalyst for higher highs.


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## Junior (1 September 2015)

OK...exiting at $5 proved worthwhile.

SP now down at $4.06 after what I thought was a reasonable profit result.  This stock was regularly appearing on the top 10 most shorted list, and it looks as though many of those positions have been or are being realised.

The stock is at a 2 year low and yielding 4.6%.  I'm seeing value from a fundamental standpoint, but the chart is telling me otherwise.

Can anyone offer insight here?


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## alonso (21 October 2015)

The MBA purchase could be just a trade opportunity or it could be that an upturn is expected over the longer term.
There's indications for both in the chart imo. It's certainly tempting for me as a longer term holder to top up at this price.


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## notting (20 November 2015)

Sometimes you see a piece of news and just think, 'that's a short, I don't care what the price is or what the charts say.'  I'm gonna go short it.

Peace of news - 



> Medical centre and diagnostics group Primary Health Care has warned that revenues across all of its businesses are under pressure to due to weak market conditions and Medicare funding cuts.
> 
> Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...ar-sizzles-20151119-gl3i77.html#ixzz3s0DIrR4s
> Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook




Coincidentally after actually heaving a look at a weekly chart it just fell through 67.8 fib level and support.


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## pixel (10 January 2017)

Ouch! What a difference a "blast from the ceo's past" can make 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01818837



Glad I took profit before "it" hit the fan. But I reckon we'll soon get a chance to buy back lower.


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## System (6 December 2018)

On December 5th, 2018, Primary Health Care Limited (PRY) changed its name and ASX code to Healius Limited (HLS).


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## Trav. (25 December 2020)

This on is a sell on my CAM weekly but it could be a buy soon based on the below info

Trialing some new software and I still have my training wheels on so bear with me as I post a few charts and hopefully I can get 1 or 2 predictions correct

HLS has had a very nice run since a low in April of $1.925 and is approaching a posisble pivot point. Will it make it in time ? Currently oversold but with the market volume reducing it may miss the boat and continue down to fill the gap on the created on the 9/12 due to news.


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## rnr (25 December 2020)

Trav. said:


> This on is a sell on my CAM weekly but it could be a buy soon based on the below info
> 
> Trialing some new software and I still have my training wheels on so bear with me as I post a few charts and hopefully I can get 1 or 2 predictions correct
> 
> ...




An interesting chart @Trav..
Even though the bounce could be imminent, the risk/reward ratio is not flash!


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## divs4ever (28 July 2022)

HLS  , is my stab at the wooden spoon for August  ( OOPS ! i mean pick for the August comp. )

 i normally don't invest much  in bigger health-care stocks , too much risk of government meddling to my liking  , BUT ...

 the P/E is fairly low  ( and sadly D/E over 50% ) and it might be time to add a few extra traditional 'safe-haven plays '

 i have a small buy order entered in the market ( after today's close )

 so i either buy some cheap in August  , or miss out on the comp. wooden spoon 

 i had a nice  run when i held the PRY hybrids ( debt notes  ) back circa 2012 until they redeemed .

 one  would think this has little chance of being a take-over target  , but some unexpected deals have been completed elsewhere on the ASX , so you never know


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