# Iron Ore - General Commentary



## Miner (13 June 2008)

There are so many iron ore companies and I thought why not start a new thread with general commentary , news on iron ores which of interest all iron ore stocks non specific to a particular thread

With this preamble I am posting this news on iron ore situation in India and relationship with Chinese Ore market. This definitely leads to some direction to Australian ore 
Note is derived from yahoo site which is meant for all and no copy right issue 

UPDATE 1-Indian iron ore prices drop on lower China shipments
(Adds details, analyst comment and byline)

By Arpan Mukherjee

MUMBAI, June 12 (Reuters) - *India's prices of iron ore for export have dropped 8-11 percent as stockpiles build up at Chinese ports, trimming demand from its leading customer, the head of a trade body said on Thursd*ay.

"There is a demand, but the interest for Indian cargo has been weak," Rahul Baldota, president of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries told Reuters.

China is the main market for India's iron ore exporters such as Sesa Goa Ltd . India exports about 90 million tonnes of iron ore, and most of the sales are done on a spot basis.

*The export price of ore has dropped by $10-$15 a tonne to $115-120 in the past six weeks, Baldota said, adding a combination of factors had led to the fall.*
"Australian cargo is available in the spot market. Secondly, stocks are lying at various ports in China and prices were also very high, which cumulatively led to this," he said.

Stockpiles of imported ore at Chinese ports hit an all-time high of nearly 80 million tonnes last month, and severe congestion there is contributing to a rise in freight rates.


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## renim (18 June 2008)

also news from india, some locals blew up the power to a iron ore mine causing loss of production for a week or so.  main recipient of the ore was to be the Japanese.  combine this with moves to increase export tax on iron ore (to help contain domestic steel price and inflation)


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## grace (18 June 2008)

There is a thread that most post to called "iron ore".  Perhaps we could merge these threads or something?????


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## Mofra (21 June 2008)

renim said:


> also news from india, some locals blew up the power to a iron ore mine causing loss of production for a week or so.  main recipient of the ore was to be the Japanese.  combine this with moves to increase export tax on iron ore (to help contain domestic steel price and inflation)



Adds further weight of evidence to ensure any iron ore exposure one has is predominately hematite as magnetite smelting costs are still exhorbanent in comparison due to the increase in oil and/or thermal coal costs.


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## Ann (26 February 2019)

*India May Step Up Pellet Sales to Fill Supply Gap From Vale Cuts*

_India’s pellet exports are expected to rise as buyers seek alternative sources of iron ore following output cuts by Vale SA after a deadly dam breach, according to the local arm of Fitch Ratings Ltd.

Overseas sales may rise as much as 20 percent in 2019 from about 9 million metric tons last year as countries such as China, Japan and South Korea that depend on Brazil will now source pellets from India, according to Rohit Sadaka, associate director at India Ratings and Research Ltd.

More...._


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## Ann (3 March 2019)

Thought I would take a look at the Iron Ore chart on a long term monthly view. 91 looks like an overhead resistance line, lets see if it can hammer on through!


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## Ann (10 March 2019)

On the daily chart, Iron Ore has slipped below 86.00 closing at 85.15.


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## Ann (21 March 2019)

*Vale Mine Ruling Has Analysts Weighing Iron Ore Market Impact*
_
A Brazilian court ruling that authorized Vale SA to restart a mine that was closed after a dam burst is generally positive for the company but could cause a spillover effect in the iron ore market, which saw a surge in prices in the wake of the deadly disaster, analysts said. More..._


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## Ann (14 April 2019)

*China Isn't Ready for Iron-Ore Deficit, Steelhome's Wu Says*

_China’s steel industry isn’t prepared for a looming shortage of iron ore, the metal used to make the building material that last week rose to its highest price in almost five years, according to a prominent industry adviser in China.

Prices will “absolutely” continue to increase as mine closures in Brazil spur a market deficit in the second half of the year, Wu Wenzhang, founder and president of Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co., said in an interview Saturday. Iron-ore prices surged to the highest since July 2014 at $95.90 a ton on Friday, according to Mysteel data. More...

...and a daily chart






_


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## Ann (19 April 2019)

This article mentions a few of our miners, may be worth a read...

*Nerves of Steel Are Needed If Iron Rally Is Over: Taking Stock*

_Consolidation: day 11. The Stoxx Europe 600 is still stuck in a tight range as the earnings season is getting in full swing. The first results have been generally ok so far, albeit with a low bar. Looking at sector performances, the mining sector is still the top this year and miners have been partying on soaring iron ore prices. But there’s a shift in the newsflow this week, which could crash the party. More..._


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## Ann (21 April 2019)

This is going to affect all iron-ore stocks quite profoundly I would suspect....

*Iron ore miners tumble after Vale allowed to restart Brazil mine*
_
Australian iron ore miners have shed more than $7 billion in value on Wednesday after Brazilian courts allowed Vale to re-open an iron ore operation that was closed following a fatal mine dam disaster.

Vale's Brucutu iron ore mine will resume operations after it was closed when tailings dams burst in January, flooding the town of Brumadinho in Brazil's Minas Gerais state and killing hundreds. It means about 30 million tonnes of iron ore will come back onto the market. More..._

So far the increased supply of Iron Ore has yet to be reflected in its price....


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## kahuna1 (21 April 2019)

It already has ... if you read ...

*have shed more than $7 billion*


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## Ann (21 April 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> It already has ... if you read ...
> 
> *have shed more than $7 billion*




That was " _Australian iron ore miners have shed more than $7 billion". _

The chart I put up is the spot price for Iron Ore. It has fallen -2.09% for the week. Not a massive drop or particularly out of the ordinary.
Looking at other Commodity falls for the same week...
Coal   -2.36%
Nickel  -2.73%
Zinc   -3.42%
Rhodium  -2.82%
Neodymium  -4.26%
Manganese  -3.80%
Natural Gas  -6.53%

So the weekly fall of -2.09% for Iron Ore is no big deal for the spot price. The spot price was $76 when Vale Dam collapse was announced back at the end of January.


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## Ann (1 May 2019)

Looking at the monthly chart for Iron Ore, the price is holding and improving slightly after Vale came back online. I would have thought this would give support for the main iron ore plays like BHP, FMG, MGX and the others.


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## Ann (10 May 2019)

*Gloom Spreads in Steel as Car Woes and Trade Tensions Bite*
_
The world’s biggest steelmakers are bracing for tough year as trade disputes and weakening automotive demand cast a chill over the sector.

ArcelorMittal, which posted its lowest quarterly profit since 2016, warned Thursday that the European steel market will be far weaker than expected this year as demand contracts and producers struggle against cheap imports. The world’s biggest steelmaker also lowered its forecast for demand outside of China.


The gloom spreading through the steel industry marks a sharp reversal after two years of bumper profits, driven by strong demand across all major markets and slowing exports from China. Now, creaking economies in Europe and increased trade tensions are undermining the recovery. More..._


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## Ann (19 May 2019)

*Iron Ore Powers Above $100 as Supply Crisis Roils Global Market*

_Iron ore rallied above $100 a ton, surging to the highest since 2014, as investors bet that a global supply crunch will spur a scramble for cargoes just as China’s mills push out record volumes of steel.

Benchmark spot ore climbed 2.5% to $100.35, according to Mysteel Global. Earlier, most-active futures in Singapore jumped as much as 3.8%, while miners’ shares powered ahead, with Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. hitting the highest since 2008. More..._


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## Miner (19 May 2019)

Big time iron ore miners on Monday - several factors now - Liberal Win, Market Demand and general business uplift . Shares to watch BHP, RIO, FMG, MGX, MIN - some juniors will get the shadow and move unpredictably north as well.
My current holding is only BHP and MIN.


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## Ann (2 June 2019)

I have been wondering why the iron ore miners have been a bit weak of late. The price of Iron Ore is still traveling well which should have kept them going, on my chart which only shows from 2013 it looked like the resistance should be around $110.




....however I then found a chart with a longer time frame and there is a resistance support line just a whisker under the current price. This chart looks a bit dodgy in that it appears to be missing information. 
It appears both the IC chart and this one is Iron Ore 62%. I will give you an explanation as to what it is...

* Iron Ore 62% FE*
_ 
 Iron ore prices refer to Iron Ore Fine China Import 62 percent grade Spot Cost and Freight for the delivery at the Chinese port of Tianjin. _


Now I will put up another chart which doesn't look quite as dodgy this is just referred to as ...
_
* Iron Ore*
  Iron ore prices refer to Iron Ore Fine China Import 63.5 percent grade Spot Cost and Freight for the delivery at the Chinese port of Tianjin._

This closed above that resistance line by a whisker also to $105.50....


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## Trav. (30 May 2020)

This caught my eye today, after mentioning that there were supply issues in the BHP thread.

_(Bloomberg) -- Iron ore surged past $100 a ton as supply woes in Brazil coincide with sustained, robust demand in top steel producer China._

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iron-ore-futures-power-toward-081301662.html


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## Dona Ferentes (30 May 2020)

Trav. said:


> This caught my eye today, after mentioning that there were supply issues in the BHP thread.
> 
> _(Bloomberg) -- Iron ore surged past $100 a ton as supply woes in Brazil coincide with sustained, robust demand in top steel producer China._



the Brazilian supply chain is impacted by Covid-19



> Iron ore shipments from Brazil have fallen by almost a quarter in May because of the country's coronavirus crisis, which is one of the worst in the world, said Macquarie analyst Serafino Capoferri. Brazil exported 15.27 million tonnes of iron ore in the first three weeks of May, down from 19.4 million tonnes in the comparable period of 2019, when exports were already lower than normal following the fatal dam collapse at Vale's mine in Brumadinho.
> "The situation in Brazil is pretty much out of control," said Mr Capoferri. He said the pandemic had caused difficulties at the country's mines, which are more labour-intensive and require people to work closer together than mines in Australia.





> Vale has said the coronavirus will reduce the amount of iron it is able to produce this year. The company said in late April it will mine between 345 million and 370 million tonnes of iron ore powder and pellets in 2020, around 40 million tonnes less that it previously expected. Brazil as a whole mined 480 million tonnes of iron ore in 2019, according to the US Geological Survey, a fifth of global production and second only to Australia


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## Trav. (30 May 2020)

So maybe keep an eye on the following companies

BHP, RIO, FMG, CIA all plotted below


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## Trav. (30 May 2020)

or another view


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## Trav. (30 May 2020)

I forgot to mention that I have picked CIA in the yearly competition so make sure you load up !!


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## Miner (31 May 2020)

Trav. said:


> I forgot to mention that I have picked CIA in the yearly competition so make sure you load up !!



CIA means the same Trump's agency . That's would be challenging..
What's your view on MIN ?


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## Trav. (31 May 2020)

Miner said:


> What's your view on MIN ?




@Miner howdy mate. 

Fundamentally I have no idea but I am sure that you are all over that side.

Chart wise below is my daily CAM chart. Really nice run in May and tested recent high $19.68 / $19.70 so with good IO prices we could see this trend continue.

Red Bars indicate CAM down - MACD Falling and ADX rising as can be seen in the bottom chart pane


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## Miner (31 May 2020)

Trav. said:


> @Miner howdy mate.
> 
> Fundamentally I have no idea but I am sure that you are all over that side.
> 
> ...



Hey @Trav.
I am good mate. A bit exhausted with 2+1 roster due to Corona protection and now to be in minesite for 3 weeks . Have to help the company to reduce AISC of iron ore per ton  
Any way, returning to CIA

Did Google now on Champion CIA after reading your post. Ironically while in Canada never searched for this company though knew well about Rio's iron ore mines there.

 I found the company increased the wmt but also increased the AISC per ton by 10% even after increasing the recovery by 3%.

So my  company has the opportunity to make money if they can keep the recover and reduce the other costs to reduce per ton cost. Point to be noted, it has reportedly not been affected from Corona and still could not cut operational cost.
In addition one of the directors sold out 300000 shares to fund conversion of the options. If I was David and confident of my company's future then would borrow money to convert the options and sell after to get capital gain and more money. But I am a miner and not a director so my logic would not work to make David money  
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200528/pdf/44j5tmxvtffz36.pdf


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## frafam (17 May 2021)

I am bearish ( for a variety of reasons) about the iron ore price and believe it will drop 
over the coming 6 - 12 mths ( considerably).
any suggestions on how to best trade for this possible position ?
eg a covered 'put' ? or are there other alternatives ?
thanks


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## cutz (17 May 2021)

frafam said:


> I am bearish ( for a variety of reasons) about the iron ore price and believe it will drop
> over the coming 6 - 12 mths ( considerably).
> any suggestions on how to best trade for this possible position ?
> eg a covered 'put' ? or are there other alternatives ?
> thanks



Hello.

You can achieve a covered put payoff with a short call without the hassle of loaning stock to short.

Any reason for a covered put over a straight out short ?


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## striek (17 May 2021)

I would just buy deep OTM puts if you have a really high conviction the stocks will fall and you want more leverage than shorting the stocks directly. A covered put will cap your upside but not your risk if you get it wrong and IO goes up.

A great level of IO price slippage is I believe priced-in already though. The miners are all on track to make enormous profits relative to their market caps so the market clearly doesn't think the EPS (and dividends..)  will be stable in the near future. If the price of IO really plunges though the price of some put options will still increase exponentially.


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## Value Collector (17 May 2021)

striek said:


> A great level of IO price slippage is I believe priced-in already though. The miners are all on track to make enormous profits relative to their market caps so the market clearly doesn't think the EPS (and dividends..)  will be stable in the near future. If the price of IO really plunges though the price of some put options will still increase exponentially.



Yes, so beware anyone buying Puts that expire before the Iron Ore miners (especially FMG) go Ex dividend, they are currently accumulating huge amounts of cash that will be declared as a dividend, and likely provide a lot of share price support leading up to the ex dividend date at the end of August.


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## frafam (18 May 2021)

Thank you for the comment Cutz.
A covered put is lower risk, i guess, as i have the shares in place if needed
A short call is riskier if i am wrong, but if correct far better result


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## cutz (18 May 2021)

frafam said:


> Thank you for the comment Cutz.
> A covered put is lower risk, i guess, as i have the shares in place if needed
> A short call is riskier if i am wrong, but if correct far better result



Hello.

Both positions carry the same risk profile.

I take it you understand in a covered put position you're short the stock ?  Being short stock carries similar risks to short calls..


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## Sean K (26 June 2021)

Anyone have a reliable / respectable analysis of where IO prices are heading? It seems there's a lot of discrepancy between what our Treasury are saying (conservative position) and some of the bullish comments out there. 

Here's one from Fitch saying:

_Looking beyond this year, Fitch Solutions expects iron-ore prices to follow a multiyear downtrend, and the agency is forecasting prices to decline from an average $160/t this year to $75/t by 2025 and $63/t by 2030._

If this is the case, pure IO plays who have had a huge run up during this cycle could represent a great short opportunity.


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## Miner (4 August 2021)

kennas said:


> Anyone have a reliable / respectable analysis of where IO prices are heading? It seems there's a lot of discrepancy between what our Treasury are saying (conservative position) and some of the bullish comments out there.
> 
> Here's one from Fitch saying:
> 
> ...



Same question with the overnight crash - where iron ore prices are now heading ?
I will be on plane when market opens. Don't want to see the opening ceremony.


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## greggles (3 June 2022)

Slowing Chinese economic growth means less steel and less demand for iron ore. The short to medium term outlook for iron ore is turning bearish.









						China’s economic slowdown woes dent benchmark iron ore price
					

China is facing bigger economic difficulties than in 2020, with some indicators starting to weaken sharply since March, Premier Li Keqiang said.




					www.mining.com
				




The global economy is still teetering on the edge. Are we going to slide into recession or slowly pull ourselves out of the current slump?


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## divs4ever (3 June 2022)

well in my opinion China needed to slow , and focus on eliminating bottlenecks  and upgrade  anything that needs it  , so it could happily  tidy up it's own economy and infrastructure , and let the rest of the world reap what it has sown ( Russia chose self-sufficiency  so it will be OK )

 add in China  is looking at expansion in space  , keep the West distracted over Taiwan 

 iron in theory should go back to reality  ( maybe $70 a tonne )  and most of the world will wallow in self-pity 

 sure it will be a nasty hangover , but that is what you get if you party hard all weekend ( decade )


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## Dona Ferentes (21 June 2022)

Overnight 62Fe  .... Iron ore -8% to $US112.35 a tonne

but this morning the big boys are up... perhaps this is just a short-term gyration?  Talk of a slowdown in China seems to be the biggest factor at play.


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## Telamelo (21 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Overnight 62Fe  .... Iron ore -8% to $US112.35 a tonne
> 
> but this morning the big boys are up... perhaps this is just a short-term gyration?  Talk of a slowdown in China seems to be the biggest factor at play.



I don't think iron ore will ever again drop below US$90 a tonne imo which even at that price, still a big cash cow for the big boy's!


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## qldfrog (21 June 2022)

Telamelo said:


> I don't think iron ore will ever again drop below US$90 a tonne imo which even at that price, still a big cash cow for the big boy's!



You could be right especially when you factor 10% plus inflation..
3 years at 90$ and you have lost a third of value...not mentioning mining costs going thru the roof and your profits collapsing 
Inflation is a factor most ignored in trading/charting..and we could ..kind of ..in the last decades..but we will need to relearn...


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## waterbottle (21 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Overnight 62Fe  .... Iron ore -8% to $US112.35 a tonne
> 
> but this morning the big boys are up... perhaps this is just a short-term gyration?  Talk of a slowdown in China seems to be the biggest factor at play.




Probably more related to market-wide buoyancy as the markets recover from last week's slaughter. Global recession + China lockdown doesn't seem too profitable for iron ore miners.


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## Value Collector (21 June 2022)

Telamelo said:


> I don't think iron ore will ever again drop below US$90 a tonne imo which even at that price, still a big cash cow for the big boy's!



I wouldn’t make that bet, After all even oil went negative for a while back in 2020, however I would be happy to make a bet that it’s average price over time will be above $90.

If some one offered to pay me $100 for every quarter Iron averaged above $90, and in return I had to pay them $100 for every quarter in averaged below $90, I would make that bet.

But in any given quarter I may have to pay them $100, but I feel that over time I will be collecting more often than not.


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## divs4ever (21 June 2022)

now regarding  iron ( and coal ) there is talk of escalating the  bloodsports show in Ukraine 

do they let Russia win  , or are they going to start replacing all those destroyed war-toys

 ( remember the West needs to distract like hell for the EU/US financial implosion  currently in progress )


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## JohnDe (7 July 2022)

Iron ore looks to be in the doldrums for the rest of the year.



> Iron ore looks set to continue this month’s sharp plunge on growing fears of a slowdown in China, amid a commodity price plunge that also battered gold producers on Wednesday.
> 
> Iron ore spot prices were trading just below $US110 on Tuesday, but Singapore futures dipped further in Wednesday trading, touching $US106.70 late in the day – their lowest mark in 2022.
> 
> ...


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## qldfrog (12 July 2022)

Another IO news which is as relevant here than in the Ukrainian war thread, the Reset thread and the Biden administration/ collapse of the west ones..not to say anything about our own country future or absence of.








						Australian iron ore supplier embraces Chinese market with yuan settlement - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn
				



Make no mistake,this is probably one of the most important news you have read in this quarter...


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## Skate (12 July 2022)

@qldfrog thanks for the hyperlink, it's a well-written article. Cutting out the middle man for a short period will be beneficial for us as a nation. I particularly like the paragraphs below as it's a small step in getting our biggest trading partner back onside.

_"Yuan-settlement trade will not only enhance the bargaining power of domestic iron and steel enterprises on iron ore prices but also avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations while ensuring profit margins and cost stability for enterprises.

Moreover, the market price of buyers and sellers will be relatively stable, measurable, and beneficial for the sustainable trade partnership, even though the US dollar is still the main currency for the iron ore trade at the moment"._

Skate.


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## qldfrog (12 July 2022)

Skate said:


> @qldfrog thanks for the hyperlink, it's a well-written article. Cutting out the middle man for a short period will be beneficial for us as a nation. I particularly like the paragraphs below as it's a small step in getting our biggest trading partner back onside.
> 
> _"Yuan-settlement trade will not only enhance the bargaining power of domestic iron and steel enterprises on iron ore prices but also avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations while ensuring profit margins and cost stability for enterprises.
> 
> ...



And it is a definite sign of a changing world with the demise of the petrodollar.for best or worse, it is happening.


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## Dona Ferentes (15 July 2022)

The spot price of iron ore as quoted by the Platts unit of S&P Global Commodity Insights, fell $US9.15 or 8.4 per cent to *$US100.25 a tonne*.

....concerns about demand in China is why the Singapore traded price fell to an eight-month low on Thursday amid renewed concerns that trouble in China’s property sector will widen as well as the prospect of more COVID-19 lockdowns.



> _“Property has been getting steadily worse the whole time; prices, sales, starts, all terrible_,” an analyst told Bloomberg. “_The chronic deterioration has now taken another step. It was always going to hit the financial sector eventually, given the prevalence of collateral in loan books with large real estate portions_.”


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## basilio (28 July 2022)

Analysis of China's efforts to control the price they pay for  iron ore.









						China's Plan to Control Aussie Ore Market – ShareCafe
					

After several leaks to Bloomberg and other western agencies in recent months, news emerged this week of China’s plan to try and control the Australian iron ore industry with a centralised buying agency.




					www.sharecafe.com.au


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## frugal.rock (13 August 2022)

This, up over 20% in a month. 
I wonder why...


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## rcw1 (14 November 2022)

Good evening,

The ASX’s iron ore producers had a great day today maybe in response to China’s softening of coronavirus prevention measures and better efforts to resuscitate the country’s stricken property sector.  Iron ore futures traded in Singapore rose 3.9 per cent to $US94.85 a tonne on the contract today.  In the spot market, iron ore rose 4.7 per cent to $US92.25 ($142) a tonne on Friday, according to Platts.

Champion Iron surged 13 per cent to $6.03, and Fortescue Metals Group 10 per cent to $19.55. BHP Group rose 4.6 per cent to $44.01, and Rio Tinto 3.3 per cent to $106.

`Nice

Kind regards
rcw1


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