# Portfolio Position



## stargazer (19 January 2008)

Hi all

If your portfolio  is in the red at this time what percentage is it down.  

What are you going to do if the market falls further.

Cheers
SG


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## bergers_n_fries (19 January 2008)

as naive as it sounds i am just going to ride it out

being a student and pouring a major percentage of my earnings into the sharemarket i treat my investments somewhat as sunk costs...once it is done it is done so to speak (shoot me down if you will)

although i have lost $7 on zinifex and a few $$$ on bhp and westfield i see enough scope for improvement just to simply ride it out

i dont see i have enough experience of product knowledge in the market to suddenly begin buying and selling so i dont see a point in madly stressing

however i am starting to look at potential companies i can pick up on the cheap or companies that could or will benefit from the change in government

if anything...kdudd could come in handy to set me up for life


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## chewy (19 January 2008)

My portfolio is dead flat/even at the moment but I only started investing a few months ago. Half of them have fallen back to buy in price (that were well up), a couple are significantly down, but luckily my main holding is still well up from buy in (CVN). Overall leaving me flat. 

The plan is to ride it out but I'd be lying if I didn't admit to thinking about selling. But I'm investing for long term so it seems crazy to sell while the market is panicking. 

I believe in all the companies fundamentals but its market sentiment that worries me atm. One thing that worries me is that our market is very focused on the US atm and the US doesn't look like having much good news. I don't even personally believe that a slowing US will have much effect on heaps of the Aus companies but I can't make the market think that. maybe when Aus companies start reporting and profits are as good as ever then our market will settle down??


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## Rainmaker2000 (19 January 2008)

I know it sounds like a cliche, but its only about a month away for most companies to give you the best reasons why to buy/sell........their profit reports......that's the information to balance your holdings off.........

As for the current correction which has actually been quite dramatic, your buy prices compared to current prices is the least relevant piece of information for balancing the portfolio compared to the avalanche of data appearing next month


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## numbercruncher (19 January 2008)

Many Aussie companies are going to report stella results im sure, but the big question is can they repeat that or better going forward, obviously a big *?* hangs over that.


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## Julia (19 January 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Many Aussie companies are going to report stella results im sure, but the big question is can they repeat that or better going forward, obviously a big *?* hangs over that.



Conversely, they might produce results such as we've seen with BKN and MFS.


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## Buffettology (19 January 2008)

I think most peoples portfolios would be in the red at the moment!  

To answer the questions, as the thread appears to have been hijacked!

Im being eaten alive at the moment, but have kept buying all the way down.  Currently in the red -10.24%.

I am going to keep holding, hence why I am buying on the fall.  

I only have 5 stocks in my portfolio.  2 are even, one is a little down, 2 are being HAMMERED and account for nearly all that loss!  

But its only paper money afterall!  Will probably dump the rest of my portfolio in this wk (not much cash left now) and wait for the next rally!  Appears we are experiencing a crash cycle!  So the next rally shouldnt be too far away.


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## So_Cynical (19 January 2008)

I'm still up around 4%....down from the 13% high of just 5 days ago (Monday)

I'm holding my gold stocks..i made a decision awhile ago to hold 
until gold saw 1000 USD....and im sticking to it.

However i fully realize i missed a great "out and back in" opportunity with LGL and TRY.


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## stargazer (20 January 2008)

Hi all

Thanks for your contributions. It certainly takes some mental fortitude to hang in there especially on an avalanche of bad news from the US.  Night after night.

Also the ASX going down 11 days in a row.

Plus the headline RE: DOW the worst start  ever.

I borrowed and is the first time in the ASX and of course when you see headlines like this and the news it is very character building.

If it keeps going down you feel like a fool for not selling if it recovers you pat yourself on the back that you made the right decision.


My contingency plan if it keeps going down is to sell small parcels to cover the interest on the loan.

Cheers
SG


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## barnz2k (20 January 2008)

chewy said:


> The plan is to ride it out but I'd be lying if I didn't admit to thinking about selling. But I'm investing for long term so it seems crazy to sell while the market is panicking.
> 
> I believe in all the companies fundamentals but its market sentiment that worries me atm. One thing that worries me is that our market is very focused on the US atm and the US doesn't look like having much good news. I don't even personally believe that a slowing US will have much effect on heaps of the Aus companies but I can't make the market think that. maybe when Aus companies start reporting and profits are as good as ever then our market will settle down??




Pretty much my thinking Chewy. 
Except im now NEG 1-2% for the first time since I bought, and was previously  on a high of about 20% late last year. Oh the pain.


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## tech/a (20 January 2008)

Buffettology said:


> I think most peoples portfolios would be in the red at the moment!
> 
> To answer the questions, as the thread appears to have been hijacked!
> 
> ...




Its not paper money.

Its *YOUR* money *NEVER* lose sight of that.


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## Nyden (20 January 2008)

tech/a said:


> Its not paper money.
> 
> Its *YOUR* money *NEVER* lose sight of that.




That's exactly right. Should you need to sell right now for any number of reasons, you've lost. Can't sit there & shrug off a loss because it isn't "real" money.

I'm sitting on some major losses myself now, I recently sold off a part of my portfolio for that reason; to prevent further loss, & protect capital.

I believe people like to label it as a paper-loss to help prevent the pain that accompanies an *actual* loss though, whatever helps I guess.


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## Nathan_b (20 January 2008)

100% right guys.

Its your money weather it profit or not. We dont play the market for nothing so if you come out square your still losing because you have opportunity loss as well.


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## tronic72 (20 January 2008)

I'm down (both financially and emotionally). 

That said, In the past week I've totally modified my trading style and put together a set of "adjusted" trading rules for the current climate we are in.

Fortunately I spit my capital in half just under two weeks ago. The first half I'm using as a more long term bargain hunting portfolio. The second half is being used for CFD trading and that half has been decimated. I'm really glad I split my capital. I'm trying really hard to get some positives out of the recent market uncertainty.

The silver lining for me is that since I've modified my trading style I've started to claim back some of the losses at this stage it will take my at least a month to get my capital back to the amount it was in November. If I can accomplish that by February I'll be really happy.



Edit: The other Silver lining is I've picked up shares like BHP, BNB, AWC, PDN & MQG at substantially reduced prices which I'll keep long term. Some purchased under 30% of their 07 highs.


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## vishalt (20 January 2008)

I've still quardrupled what I started with this year, but wouldve had 7x, I'm not willing to take a loss and I'm well hedged.


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## M34N (20 January 2008)

I'm a bit over half in, sitting on some 10% losses (I guess about average), waiting for a bottom so I can buy back into my stocks at lower prices, reduce my initial buying costs and bail out at a smaller loss when the market has a rally eventually.

But not rushing in any time soon, waiting for the dust to settle, earnings season coming up soon and FOMC meeting late this month will set the tone.


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## Buffettology (20 January 2008)

NO, its not my money until I actually SELL!  I have not realised the loss yet.  

Not to mention, I made an unbeleivable 50% last year (that was realised gain), selling stocks at their absolute highs just months ago.  Hence why my portfolio is now in such a large defecit.  I have bought all the way down this correction/crash and will continue to do so.  When others start selling, I buy.  When the greed drives the prices far above what I beleive they are worth, I sell.  

The short sightedness of many of you traders and in particular, the large institutional investors and super funds, trying to make an above market return for their customers year in and year out, is what allows me to make money.  Super funds cant tell their clients, we are down 10% but dont worry, next year we will make 30% because we are holding under valued stocks and waiting for them to rise!  I CAN do this!  

I know there arent many value investors here, so I expect many dont agree with these philosophies, but they have worked me wonders so far and I will continue to implement them.


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## Buffettology (20 January 2008)

Nathan_b said:


> 100% right guys.
> 
> Its your money weather it profit or not. We dont play the market for nothing so if you come out square your still losing because you have opportunity loss as well.




Opportunity cost you mean?


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## tech/a (20 January 2008)

> NO, its not my money until I actually SELL! I have not realised the loss yet.




Realised or not your portfolio is valued at whatever it is today.
Walk into a bank and see what they value your portfolio as relative to your nett wealth.

As an investment you wouldn't be looking like good value.
As a business director you'd be fired by share holders.
You don't happen to be the CEO for Citibank?

Just like Citibank one day you may actually have to realise those losses,Naively thinking all losses turn to profit has blown up many a budding BUFFETT.


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## jman2007 (20 January 2008)

Well...

my portfolio was looking quite nice there for a while, over 40% a couple of months ago, been too scared to check it since Thursday, I imagine I might be in single figures, but still positive.  

I think my investment strategy has provided some level of protection (yes I can hear hoots of laughter as you all roll around on the floor...), I have never played with CFD's or options, just run-of-the-mill ordinary shares.  

I attempted to identify resource and energy companies that were already in production, or had a significant chance of near-term production, produced a marketable commodity that they could sell, had a reasonable cash flow and assets significantly greater than a 2:1 ratio against liabilities.

Fairly basic strategy, but I think in these times of volatility everyone just needs to think of these basic guidelines... You should be asking yourself how your company makes it money and if there is a good prospect of earnings continuing or increasing into the future?  If you don't understand what the corporate structure of a company is, then stay the hell away from it (eg. Centro). The last thing you want is undeclared losses coming out from the woodwork that were conveniently "hidden" within an overly-complex corporate structure.

And yes, even the big bad banks forget these things too, just make sure *you* don't lose sight of reality.

jman


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## kingie_d (20 January 2008)

Ive been shorting since the new year and Im up 20%. Loving it


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## Buffettology (20 January 2008)

tech/a said:


> Realised or not your portfolio is valued at whatever it is today.
> Walk into a bank and see what they value your portfolio as relative to your nett wealth.
> 
> As an investment you wouldn't be looking like good value.
> ...





So these losses mean I will get a break on my tax return?  Will the tax collector realise these losses?  

Buffett made a HUGE loss when he bought Coke on its way down!  

Sure, many a budding Buffett have lost cash, but we all know, the market trends up in the long-run.  The only difference is that as I have not bought at the VERY bottom, my long-run returns will not be as high as they could be.  But hey, who can pick the bottom?

Last time the market had a correction, I surely made some HUGE losses!   Thats how I ended up 50% up last year, because I bought stocks as they were "crashing", never to return to their previous highs!  

Day trading is absolutely very different to buying for long-run gains, so I dont count my losses until I actually sell the share.


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## Buffettology (20 January 2008)

tech/a said:


> Just like Citibank one day you may actually have to realise those losses,Naively thinking all losses turn to profit has blown up many a budding BUFFETT.




Do you believe out of 5 differentiated, value stocks, BKL, JST, TOL, EQN, DEX, that in 4 years, all, or the majority will be a realised loss?  Oh and I bought SDG also the other day.

And that is assuming I DO sell in 4 years!  

Cash pouring into super funds, economists predicting 15 of the past 5 recessions, really leaves some room for optimism.  

Sell if you beleive we are in doom and gloom, will just give me some even better bargains.


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## ithatheekret (20 January 2008)

I noted that MON was down over 20% on it's price , dipped below $100 the other night , I won't mention what I did .......... I'm sure you can guess , I'm a MON bull .


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## nizar (20 January 2008)

Tech,

You did a good thing trying to educate somebody, but it looks like you shouldn't have wasted your time....


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## MS+Tradesim (21 January 2008)

There's nothing wrong with value investing. But even a basic stop, eg 200day wma, would improve returns. Have proven it myself in my value buys - not that particular stop, but using one.

Ending up 50%? I ended up a lot more than that by using stops. I now have the option to buy those same stocks back at crazily discounted prices. But I have more funds so I can buy more than I originally held - even taking CGT into account.

No disrespect intended, but ignoring *real* losses merely because you don't yet have the SELL contract is a mug's game. Try buying something with the difference between the sp and what you believe it's worth. 

What *if* this turns into a 18-24mth bear market? Not counting "paper" losses won't improve real returns.


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## Buffettology (21 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> There's nothing wrong with value investing. But even a basic stop, eg 200day wma, would improve returns. Have proven it myself in my value buys - not that particular stop, but using one.
> 
> Ending up 50%? I ended up a lot more than that by using stops. I now have the option to buy those same stocks back at crazily discounted prices. But I have more funds so I can buy more than I originally held - even taking CGT into account.
> 
> ...




If you ended a LOT more than 50% up last year, then good work!  That alone is something amaizing and you must have struck luck and had some great techniques!

Buffett must be a mug.  I have seen some of his buys of which he only got stocks half way down their incrdible slides!  Never saw him using stops and Im sure his not a mug!  

The strategy has worked brilliantly for me in the past, perhaps it will fail me in the future (all a learning curve), but my returns are still FAR IN EXCESS of what I planned for.  So there is definately no need for me to panic anytime soon!  

18-24 month bear market, is a possibility if EVERYTHING turns out bad!  But Im sure some strong results are coming for Australian firms, recession is not even prooven in the US yet, simply speculation (which like I said, has been predicted 15 times out of the last 5) and most economists beleive it will be mild and very short-term either way.


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## Buffettology (21 January 2008)

nizar said:


> Tech,
> 
> You did a good thing trying to educate somebody, but it looks like you shouldn't have wasted your time....




Another trader.  Stick to your own.  Dont worry about my money.  

Why is it this forum has action in 99% COMMODITIES threads?  Because of all you traders trying to make that quick buck!  Good luck!


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## cordelia (21 January 2008)

well I bought several stocks based on value...when they started to go down I read the charts. I sold them at a loss but I have saved heaps by not being in the market. There was no way I was going to sit and watch my money disappear. I can buy back in when they start to go back up for much cheaper prices. Honestly in this market how quickly do you think prices are going to go back up? If they start going up real fast I will just jump right back in.....

eg..I sold zfx @10.50 and today they are around 9.70. If they look like they are doing a reversal I will buy them back and I am ahead. It makes no sense not having a stop loss.......


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## MS+Tradesim (21 January 2008)

Buffet isn't a mug. But then he's big enough to influence a company he buys. And what's he up to now? All cashed up and about to go into the bond insurance business.


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## Plugger (21 January 2008)

From the 8th - 15th I actually made over 18%, should've sold . The last four days have hit me with avengeance!


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## evwatkins (21 January 2008)

I cashed in on the 15th just before close, as citigroup announced there loss. Thought it was a good time to get out, counting my lucky stars right now after what has happened thus far. I actually made a $2700 profit from my $30k invested, i just feel for those that have been hit hard (my dad included).


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## Go Nuke (21 January 2008)

Um..well after today i think I'm down about 38% over the last 12months since bought my first share on the market.

Just about everyhting is back at (or lower) than the price I paid over the last 12months.

I think this is why I'm holding shares for less time. It just looks as though if I sell on the highs, then i can just buy it back at almost the same price sometime down the track.
I haven't sold many shares over the year, just buying and holding....which is probably not always the best idea when they are spec stocks.
I think i need to sell more often to lock in profits and get a better feel of the markets, rather than living on hope.

I'm still ahead on *BMN*& *HLX*

Guess it was to be expected to not do so well when your a beginner


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## evwatkins (21 January 2008)

yeh im a beginner also, invested back in April 2007. my highest point was about 38.5% in the green would have been good to take profits then. but hey still learning and this has been an eye opener thats for sure.


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## Lucky_Country (21 January 2008)

Many of us in the "I should have took profits boat" 
The most sprising thing in my portfolio is BHP is my biggest loser yet it is probably the biggest profit making company in AUS.
Its got me confussed bigtime I'll certainly learn from this lesson for sure.


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## Nyden (21 January 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Many of us in the "I should have took profits boat"
> The most sprising thing in my portfolio is BHP is my biggest loser yet it is probably the biggest profit making company in AUS.
> Its got me confussed bigtime I'll certainly learn from this lesson for sure.




Yes, I was in that boat. Then I was in the 'should have taken the smaller loss' boat, now I'm in the boat at the bottom of the sea; finally realising I should have gotten out 6 boats ago!


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## stargazer (21 January 2008)

Hi all

I sense on reading many posts in various threads and forums there is a real fear and panic sentiment with those that are in.

All i can say is i bet horses and let me tell you at times it makes the dow look pretty good but it turns, if you beleive in what you are doing HOLD YOUR NERVE as long as you haven't broken the NO. 1 RULE DO NOT BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.  Yes its that simple people panic because they are over extended in my opinion.  

My opinion is not to sell everythiing at once for huge losses if it happens to turn you will kick yourself so hard.

If it doesn't turn for a  longer while than expected try and think of small incremental stages to sell down.

If it all falls in a heap over night well RULE 1 IS THE KEY.

cheers
SG


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## heads up (21 January 2008)

i sold out last week. the sentiment in the market is all pervading at the moment. i sold to retain profit, when BHP falls by this much, even though i bought at $30 its a harsh lesson......


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## Judd (21 January 2008)

You lot got me curious so I checked the price Friday to today and the market price of our holdings is down 0.6% and, from 12 days ago, we seem to be down about 8%.


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## barnz2k (22 January 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Many of us in the "I should have took profits boat"
> The most sprising thing in my portfolio is BHP is my biggest loser yet it is probably the biggest profit making company in AUS.
> Its got me confussed bigtime I'll certainly learn from this lesson for sure.




me too. especially since late last year went back to square one and then back up to almost high again within weeks - should have taken that cue.
im scared to look now.


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## DionM (22 January 2008)

Well I'm probably down about 15% as of today. 



What I really hate is that I stayed away from investing in sharemarkets for so many years, as I feared the effects of big corrections ... until last August I decided to jump in boots and all with a loan.  Bad bad bad bad bad timing.

It's taking some nerves of steel at present, I can tell you.

I can continue to keep paying the loan repayments (and it's not a margin loan), and 70% of my invested money is in stocks that pay dividends, so I don't have a _need _to cash in in this panic-striken market.  

But still, I am watching with great pains.


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## Gar (22 January 2008)

I feel pretty lucky to have come out of this mess as lightly as I have, I lost 9% over the last few weeks but I'm still up 25% - 30% from july

Try to keep your chins up fellas, its only money and its all experience


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## barnz2k (22 January 2008)

Gar said:


> I feel pretty lucky to have come out of this mess as lightly as I have, I lost 9% over the last few weeks but I'm still up 25% - 30% from july
> 
> Try to keep your chins up fellas, its only money and its all experience




Loving your AV Gar, I feel just like GIL right now


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## chewy (22 January 2008)

Well I'm now down almost 20% since i started investing a few months ago  most of that from today (down 13% today!  ). To think I could of got out only a few weeks ago 20% up   Oh well you live and learn.


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## niknah (22 January 2008)

Mid last year I only had 1-2 stocks in the red.
Now, it's mostly red stuff.
I'm down 5% from 1.5yrs of investing, thinking about switching to an index fund.   Haven't been very good at picking stocks.

Some of the ones that have went down are a surprise to me...
IRI which makes most of it's income from the US actually went up.
TRS(reject shop), look like they've fallen off a cliff with no bad news. you'd think in a recession people would buy more from the reject shop.


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## M34N (22 January 2008)

Well, the half I had invested from last week has now dwindled into about 1/5 only...

Had to bail out today, and I sold near day highs and the stock closed at a day low, saved 4% just from that decision alone, such insanity.

Still holding the one stock, but its minor, and compared to the losses incurred, it's not worth mentioning. Oh well.


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## barnz2k (23 January 2008)

Finally had the guts to look.. down almost 17% after 2 years. Thats close to 40% drop in a matter of months. Ouch. I think almost 50% of that loss came yesterday.

6% in the bank looking pretty good right about now.. 12% + compounding.. hmmm..


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## cordelia (23 January 2008)

I sold at a loss mostly on pem and zfx and put a big chunk in my mortgage so I could draw down on it and the rest in the bank but I am worried about having cash just sitting there. what do you do....


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## Sean K (23 January 2008)

cordelia said:


> ....the rest in the bank but I am worried about having cash just sitting there. what do you do....



You're worried about having cash in the bank?  Cash in the bank is an investment position. All the fund managers have it as well...Gee, I think Buffett has about $40b in the bank.


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## cordelia (23 January 2008)

kennas said:


> You're worried about having cash in the bank?  Cash in the bank is an investment position. All the fund managers have it as well...Gee, I think Buffett has about $40b in the bank.




normally i would feel quite happy about it but i don't know if the bank is a particularly safe place right now. a financial crisis is unfolding and anything could happen.


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## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

cordelia said:


> normally i would feel quite happy about it but i don't know if the bank is a particularly safe place right now. a financial crisis is unfolding and anything could happen.




Lol, I think your cash is safe with the big banks!  This will see Banks hit and then filter through the economy, but you will not see any large banks close up shop!  

You must have read too many headlines!


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## Gundini (23 January 2008)

niknah said:


> Mid last year I only had 1-2 stocks in the red.
> Now, it's mostly red stuff.
> I'm down 5% from 1.5yrs of investing, thinking about switching to an index fund.   Haven't been very good at picking stocks.
> 
> ...




Unlucky mate, you would think in recession times people would buy from the reject shop. I think they will do ok in the next 6 months if things don't improve all of a sudden. 

The USA is very resilient....


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## cordelia (23 January 2008)

I actually don't believe half of what I read in the papers....I just don't trust the banks especially when they can just decide to put up interest rates when they feel like it. If suddenly a lot of people wanted to get their money out of the bank and put it somewhere wouldn't that cause a problem....There's way too much credit around and not enough to back it from what I can observe....


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## Gundini (23 January 2008)

cordelia said:


> I actually don't believe half of what I read in the papers....I just don't trust the banks especially when they can just decide to put up interest rates when they feel like it. If suddenly a lot of people wanted to get their money out of the bank and put it somewhere wouldn't that cause a problem....There's way too much credit around and not enough to back it from what I can observe....




You are so right about banks,

and to think they will rise their own rates, but not raise the rate for the investor cash rate. 

Self interest only I'm afraid...


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## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

cordelia said:


> I actually don't believe half of what I read in the papers....I just don't trust the banks especially when they can just decide to put up interest rates when they feel like it. If suddenly a lot of people wanted to get their money out of the bank and put it somewhere wouldn't that cause a problem....There's way too much credit around and not enough to back it from what I can observe....




I dont think we are NEARLY at the stage of people lining up to get their cash out!

If that begins and sends NAB, CBA etc out of business, then I think I might start robbing matresses and what people store under them for a living!  

Not to mention, banks cant just put up the IR, the central bank does that!  Federal Reserve in the US and Reserve Bank here.


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## barnz2k (23 January 2008)

Buffettology said:


> Not to mention, banks cant just put up the IR, the central bank does that!  Federal Reserve in the US and Reserve Bank here.




Didn't they just do that recently though? Before the official rate was put up?
Im not in Oz so only get half the news but thats the word i got.


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## cordelia (23 January 2008)

yes the anz was first


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## TheRage (23 January 2008)

Banks can't put up Cash Rate which is what the reserve bank controls. Banks usually pass on Cash Rate increase becasue they borrow from RBA so cost of borrowing increases. Banks can put up their own internal interest rate whenever they feel like it. In the current environment I suspect increase was due to offset any potential investment losses as well as to pay for any doubtful debts which will  be realised over the following year. Getting in early and putting up rates will likely maintain earnings growth.


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