# TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)



## CanOz

Tesla has been tracing a well know bearish pattern, the head and shoulders. It has broken the neckline and is at the typical 'throwback' or 'retest'. There are a couple of ways to play this but i like 'looking inside the bars' and determining what the market structure tells me could be the best entries and stop locations.

To do this i use volume profile on an intra-day chart.

Examples of two ways to play this as a swing trade:
You can clearly see on the price action above the gap we have a double distribution pattern. Statistically the lower half of the distribution usually gets a re-test more than 50% of the time, so 215.98 becomes our aggressive entry. The stop is placed above the value area of the higher distribution. If we prefer to wait for more downward price action then a more 'conservative' entry could actually be the gap play, with a stop above the low volume node at 215.29

The target area for this pattern is around the 149.75 area, which is a measured move from the high, to the 'neckline' and also coincides with a prior VWAP. These prior areas of 'value' are almost 'magnetic' targets.

Trade it well....


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## nulla nulla

*Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc*

Where is TSLA listed?


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## CanOz

*Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc*



nulla nulla said:


> Where is TSLA listed?




TSLA is a Nasdaq stock Nulla. 

If you type in the symbol, into yahoo or a Google engine, it will show you where it's listed. I guess I should have mentioned that side I posted in International Markets.

Cheers,



CanOz


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## notting

As much as I admire the innovation and all.
This thing is a cult stock that is so overpriced at present along with GoPro it's mind boggling.
Technically has done very well. But when the market corrects this will be a great short.


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## CanOz

notting said:


> As much as I admire the innovation and all.
> This thing is a cult stock that is so overpriced at present along with GoPro it's mind boggling.
> Technically has done very well. But when the market corrects this will be a great short.




Yeah, I guess energy prices aren't doing it any favours here either....


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## Value Collector

CanOz said:


> Yeah, I guess energy prices aren't doing it any favours here either....




Check out Teslas lastest product launch, it looks pretty awesome to me, allows people to store solar power for night time use or even time shift offpeak power for later use.

If Office buildings etc start using this to time shift off peak power, it could be a good thing for the generators.


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## CanOz

Yeah, just watched it too...hopefully our resident expert smurf will comment....I'd love to add solar to our house in brissy once we settle.


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## thembi

FYI, a new ETF just launched on ASX that tracks the NASDAQ 100 Index - (ASX: NDQ) - this index seems to include Tesla

http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/nasdaq-100-etf/#each-overview


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## Tano

Would this be a good long term buy?
I was thinking with oil prices at record low 5 year records that people would be reluctant to pay a premium for an electric car which translates to a lower share price compared to if oil was at record highs. Not sure if this is how it works in the real world.

Also this autonomous driving may see an uptake of driverless Telsa uber/taxis in the distant future


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## Gringotts Bank

Giga factory launched.  Incredible scale and vision.  What a baller.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-Szj2qIYX8


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## greggles

Elon Musk has 999 million problems but a ***** ain't one. 

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...s/news-story/879aa6d7b6fdb645b97ab3a9e93b1830


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## greggles

Tesla share price drops 8% overnight after Elon Musk drinks whiskey and smokes weed on the Joe Rogan podcast.


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## Dona Ferentes

probably no more contentious and polarising stock. Emblematic of the changing world, perhaps? Is it true the market cap for Tesla is greater than GM or Ford?


> Tesla shares leapt to a record high, putting a $US100 billion ($145 billion) market value for the car maker into sharper focus and putting short sellers in the spotlight.
> 
> Shares in Telsa rose 9.8 per cent to $US524.86 in New York, lifting its market cap to $US94.6 billion. The stock has almost tripled since trading as low as $U176.99 in early June.


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## fergee

Dona Ferentes said:


> probably no more contentious and polarising stock. Emblematic of the changing world, perhaps? Is it true the market cap for Tesla is greater than GM or Ford?



I have a hard time understanding the valuation of this company compared to how much money it doesnt make. 

I do like the products and the vision though.

Vote Elon for first President of Mars!


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## Dona Ferentes

fergee said:


> Vote Elon for first President of Mars!



gotta be a resident, yourself?


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## fergee

Ha I wish!

Interesting how this rally in TSLA seems to be pulling all the Lithium miners up along with it.


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## Dona Ferentes

(_from Jonathan Pain_) Here is an interesting fact that seems to have been overlooked.


> Tesla’s profit over the past four quarters is $368 million. Tesla made $1 billion by selling ‘regulatory zero emission credits’ to other car makers, over the past 12 months to June 30 2020.
> 
> Which means, does it not, that Tesla didn’t make money selling cars?  They made their money by selling so-called regulatory credits to other car makers who haven’t yet built enough electric cars and hence have to buy credits from Tesla to satisfy emissions regulators.



So, do you believe that Tesla will be the only car company in the world that will make electric vehicles over the next 2-5 years?


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## Userman

*Tesla's China Revenue Soars in Q2*

Tesla reported revenue of $1.4 billion in China in the second quarter, soaring 102.9 percent year-on-year and accounting for 23.19 percent of the total.

During the first six months, Tesla reported $2.3 billion in revenues in China, accounting for 19.13 percent of the total $12.02 billion.

Tesla delivered 31,000 electric vehicles to China-based customers in the second quarter, accounting for one-third of its global sales, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

http://www.china.org.cn/business/2020-07/2...nt_76324598.htm


*
Nasdaq:IDEX -* The EV Revolution - TESLA Model 3 Proof of Concept

https://investors.ideanomics.com/2020-06-10...-EV-Taxi-Orders


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## Dona Ferentes

Tesla $7000 (make that AU$10,000)  
<< this is a broker TSLA shareprice projection, not a new car >>

https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/?


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## basilio

Dona Ferentes said:


> Tesla $7000 (make that AU$10,000)
> << this is a broker TSLA shareprice projection, not a new car >>
> 
> https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/?




That is a detailed analysis of why Ark thinks Tesla could be expected to reach $7000.US in 5 years. 
Interestingly the Bull case scenario is $15k !


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## galumay

Does anyone take that sort or rubbish seriously? Anyone with the slightest ability to think rationally would see straight through this nonsense. "Nothing goes right for Tesla, it cant lower costs, build factories effectively, or launch its autonomous network" - Price target -$750. Yeah, right.


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## basilio

I'm sure the rationale behind any company analysis can be questioned.  I don't have a horse in this race but I suggest the more detailed breakdowns in the paper are worth reading to understand  the thinking and the figures behind the projections.

But as we have all seen there are some extremely creative people making up scenarios for companies.


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## Value Collector

galumay said:


> Does anyone take that sort or rubbish seriously? Anyone with the slightest ability to think rationally would see straight through this nonsense. "Nothing goes right for Tesla, it cant lower costs, build factories effectively, or launch its autonomous network" - Price target -$750. Yeah, right.




I have been taking a closer look at TSLA lately, and I can see a case for the company being worth a lot more than its current share price in the future.

They have two operating vehicle factories, another under construction in Germany, and will be building a second one in the USA probably in Texas to produce the cyber truck, plus they have the Nevada giga factory to produce battery packs. 

When you look at the number of vehicles that they will be producing when all these plants are ramped up, and their margins they are making on vehicles now, it's looking like their share price may be justified, and thats before you factor in their solar panel and battery storage business and the possibility to earn profits on their charging networks in the future, and the blue sky stuff like the robocalls taxi network.

-----------

I don't won any stock yet, but I think I would comfortably sell anyone a 2 year European style put contract at $800 if they believed Tesla was over priced.


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## Lucky777

The Fremont factory is getting expanded. New factories for cyber and semi. Battery efficiency improvements on September. Robotics and manufacturing have improved. FSD released. Leasing ATH. Even more. Everything is stacking up. I predict $3k+ end of year.


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## galumay

Value Collector said:


> I have been taking a closer look at TSLA lately, and I can see a case for the company being worth a lot more than its current share price in the future.




That wasn't the point i was challenging, its people so caught up in emotional speculation that they can't spot the gratuitous ramping from so called analysts. As I said its arrant nonsense to suggest that if nothing goes right for the company its shares will be worth $750.


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## basilio

galumay said:


> That wasn't the point i was challenging, its people so caught up in emotional speculation that they can't spot the gratuitous ramping from so called analysts. As I said its arrant nonsense to suggest that if nothing goes right for the company its shares will be worth $750.




I think you misread the brief summary galumay.

If Tesla *fails completely* ie can't stay solvent, losses market share whatever. it goes broke and is worth nothing. That possibility is at the bottom of the scenario page.

The* third bottom option *was suggesting that the big advances promised don't come to pass. Tesla keeps going but the doesn't tick the boxes it wants in terms of successful new factories and so on.
In that context the share price would be $750 .

But who knows anything ?


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## galumay

I was directly quoting the 'research' @basilio - 
"Nothing goes right for Tesla, it cant lower costs, build factories effectively, or launch its autonomous network." -$750


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## Muckman

The battery car will die ones synthetic co2 neutral fuels are released. A fuel that contributes no extra co2. To me that’s more then what a battery car dose and you can fill it up in any car you drive now and you don’t need to turn your engine and your car will run better and cleaner. Diesels will no long have partial filters before there will be no Sulfur in the fuel.


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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> The battery car will die ones synthetic co2 neutral fuels are released. A fuel that contributes no extra co2. To me that’s more then what a battery car dose and you can fill it up in any car you drive now and you don’t need to turn your engine and your car will run better and cleaner. Diesels will no long have partial filters before there will be no Sulfur in the fuel.




How are these fuels made, are you talking about hydrogen based fuels that are bonded with CO2 to form longer chain carbon based fuels? if so these fuels have a place, but they can't compete with charging batteries.

The energy lost in electrolysis to produce hydrogen, run compressors, bond the Co2 etc is massive compared with the 5% or so energy lose to have when you charge a battery.

and then after you have lost all that energy to create your liquid fuel, the combustion engine itself is only 30% efficient compared to the electric car being about 85% efficient.


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## basilio

Value Collector said:


> How are these fuels made, are you talking about hydrogen based fuels that are bonded with CO2 to form longer chain carbon based fuels? if so these fuels have a place, but they can't compete with charging batteries.
> 
> The energy lost in electrolysis to produce hydrogen, run compressors, bond the Co2 etc is massive compared with the 5% of so energy lose to have when you charge a battery.
> 
> and then after you have lost all that energy to create your liquid fuel, the combustion engine itself is only 30% efficient compared to the electric car being about 85% efficient.




There is some very basic physics which makes it clear an electric motor and a quality long life battery system is far more efficient than an ICE. 

The hydrogen fuel cell model that creates electricity from hydrogen (or ammonia.) is an alternative. But it depends on the cost of hydrogen and cost effective transport of hydrogen in some form- preferably not gaseous. 

I have had an eye on Alkaline Fuel Cells for a few years as a producer of  very cost effective fuel cells that don't even need particularly clean hydrogen. They have a commercial product that seems to make good economic sense.
https://www.afcenergy.com/


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## Muckman

Value Collector said:


> How are these fuels made, are you talking about hydrogen based fuels that are bonded with CO2 to form longer chain carbon based fuels? if so these fuels have a place, but they can't compete with charging batteries.
> 
> The energy lost in electrolysis to produce hydrogen, run compressors, bond the Co2 etc is massive compared with the 5% or so energy lose to have when you charge a battery.
> 
> and then after you have lost all that energy to create your liquid fuel, the combustion engine itself is only 30% efficient compared to the electric car being about 85% efficient.




Gas to liquids cheeper then oil base fuels


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## Muckman

basilio said:


> There is some very basic physics which makes it clear an electric motor and a quality long life battery system is far more efficient than an ICE.
> 
> The hydrogen fuel cell model that creates electricity from hydrogen (or ammonia.) is an alternative. But it depends on the cost of hydrogen and cost effective transport of hydrogen in some form- preferably not gaseous.
> 
> I have had an eye on Alkaline Fuel Cells for a few years as a producer of  very cost effective fuel cells that don't even need particularly clean hydrogen. They have a commercial product that seems to make good economic sense.
> https://www.afcenergy.com/




I say to anyone who’s pro battery to go to any auto wreckers and picture that every car is a lithium battery.
Your a fool to think that battery cars are the be all end all answer. They just are not the answer. They have so many flaws. The battery is the problem. 
Combustion engines are not the problem. It’s the fuel. Clean the fuel up and you have a carbon free engine. 
Why would you want all the inconvenience of a battery car if you had an internal combustion engine that burnt zero emissions. Why would you choose a battery. Answer that one ?


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## galumay

Its often the path with disrtuption, what seems the obvious winner in the initial stages, ends up being a stepping stone to the ultimate solution. Batteries are very much the achillies heal of EV's, not least from the terrible environmental impact. 

I wont be surprised if the eventual solution is an ICE using a environmentally sustainable fuel or even a entirely new propulsion unit that has yet to be invented.

Its first level thinking to assume the EV is in a winner takes all, disruptive, position. It ignores all the things we dont know that we dont know.


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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> Gas to liquids cheeper then oil base fuels




That doesn’t address my point at all.

I my point is whether using these fuels is the most efficient way to extract and use the energy.

but, I can kinda of tell you have you mind made up, and probably don’t want to delve into the side of things.


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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> Why would you want all the inconvenience of a battery car if you had an internal combustion engine that burnt zero emissions.




I feel like I have explained this many times on multiple threads, but I will do it again. (Head over to the EV thread to discuss further)

Ev’s are more convenient than petrol cars, unless you have owned an EV you probably haven’t realised just how inconvenient petrol cars are compared to EV’s.

People often make the false assumption that charging an EV is harder than fueling a petrol car, but that just is not so.

it is far easier to park in your garage and take 10 secs to plug in, than it is to pull off the road, and spend 10 mins at a petrol station every week filling up. 

With an EV you start each day with a full battery with the same range as a petrol car, and you never have to go to a petrol station unless you are road tripping, and even on road trips charging is more convenient than stopping at petrol stations, you just plug in go use the toilet and grab a drink and then drive off vs having to stand there and fuel up, then move car, then go to toilet and drink.


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## Muckman

Petroleum is already the most efficient means of energy storage when it comes to density compared to battery. 
Take for a example 1 litre of fuel can run a 100Kw engine for an hour give or take. That’s 100K hours of electrical energy. Now try and find me a battery in the size of a litre that will produce 100KW hours of energy ? There is no such thing. Not even close. Maybe 10Kw hours but definitely not 100. So yes liquid fuels are still more efficient. 
Batteries are not energy. They still get power from fossil fuels in one way or another. 
If you clean the fuel up you have clean engines.
The more emission restrictions we put on current burning fuels the more pressure it puts on companies to produce synthetic fuels. 
Fuel that is made up from renewable means of gas and carbon capture. Hydrogen is always burnt off at gas refinery’s as a by product. It’s an abundant resource. Carbon capture proses powered by natural gas technology. There you have it. A liquid fuel that’s fully co2 neutral. I don’t see any battery car doing that ? No raw materials mined, no waist, it’s all recycled..
Oh and it also feeds the industry sector as a diesel and aviation fuel lol so yeh I don’t see battery powered planes any time soon. 

Fact of the matter is cars are not even the biggest concern, you need to fix the transportation industry such as the trucks, trains, ships, busses. Just because you have a Tesla that don’t mean anything. How did you think your new Tesla is going to arrive at your dealer? 
Fix the fuel first not the car. There’s nothing wrong with the engines, it’s the fuel.


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## Muckman

Value Collector said:


> I




Your thinking so small 

The fact that formula E have to swap cars for a refuel is just a pure joke
And another joke is they power there cars using generators using liquid fuels that came from renewable means.


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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> Petroleum is already the most efficient means of energy storage when it comes to density compared to battery.
> Take for a example 1 litre of fuel can run a 100Kw engine for an hour give or take. That’s 100K hours of electrical energy. Now try and find me a battery in the size of a litre that will produce 100KW hours of energy ? There is no such thing. Not even close. Maybe 10Kw hours but definitely not 100. So yes liquid fuels are still more efficient.
> Batteries are not energy. They still get power from fossil fuels in one way or another.
> If you clean the fuel up you have clean engines.
> The more emission restrictions we put on current burning fuels the more pressure it puts on companies to produce synthetic fuels.
> Fuel that is made up from renewable means of gas and carbon capture. Hydrogen is always burnt off at gas refinery’s as a by product. It’s an abundant resource. Carbon capture proses powered by natural gas technology. There you have it. A liquid fuel that’s fully co2 neutral. I don’t see any battery car doing that ? No raw materials mined, no waist, it’s all recycled..
> Oh and it also feeds the industry sector as a diesel and aviation fuel lol so yeh I don’t see battery powered planes any time soon.
> 
> Fact of the matter is cars are not even the biggest concern, you need to fix the transportation industry such as the trucks, trains, ships, busses. Just because you have a Tesla that don’t mean anything. How did you think your new Tesla is going to arrive at your dealer?
> Fix the fuel first not the car. There’s nothing wrong with the engines, it’s the fuel.




You are getting things a bit mixed up there.

Yes, liquid fuels have great energy density so they are a good way to store energy, but but combustion engines are not the most Efficient way to use energy.

that is why even hybrid outperform Straight combustion engine systems.

I suggest you look back over the electric car thread, we had a detailed conversation going over this.

My Tesla model 3 can travel 100km using only 12 KWH of electricity.

when you compare how many BTUs of energy is in 12KWH of electricity vs How many BTUs are in the petrol you would need to drive 100km it crazy.

so even though the battery is less dense when it comes to energy storage you need to store less energy


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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> Your thinking so small
> 
> The fact that formula E have to swap cars for a refuel is just a pure joke
> And another joke is they power there cars using generators using liquid fuels that came from renewable means.




I don’t think car racing has any relevance to how any or us use our cars in our daily life.
Eg. none of us have pit crews change our tyres and we can just charge our cars while we sleep or work.


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## Muckman

Can I ask you this.
If a combustion engine produces zero emissions and can supported using existing industry’s, why would you want car? 
I’m all for electrical cars but I’m not for battery cars it’s just not the answer it not. Definitely the electric engine is by far the answer. One moving part, no gear box, less servicing, consistent torque curve. But when you have to design the whole car around the battery it self compromising design aspects and limiting your innovation. It’s just not right. Your making a car to fit onto a battery, it’s ment to be around the other way around. They are just a engineering nightmare. Not to mention the longer the rang the heavily equipped they are meaning more energy consumption to cart the batty pack even though your cell is dead. Unlike a liquid fuel where on depletion it gets lighter as it gets empty. A battery is dead weight. You drive 10kms down the road and your already caring excessive loads. So there fore it’s not efficient at all. 
So no batteries are not efficient


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## Value Collector

galumay said:


> I wont be surprised if the eventual solution is an ICE using a environmentally sustainable fuel or even a entirely new propulsion unit that has yet to be invented.




Even if we find an new liquid fuel, Traditional ICE cars are still to inefficient, compared to EV.

A car that used the liquid fuel in a fuel cell to generate electricity to run the EV would be much better than a ICE car.

think about it, even hybrids that simply have a combustion engine to charge batteries Out perform traditional ice cars but simply replacing the drive chain with an electrical drive chain.


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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> Can I ask you this.
> If a combustion engine produces zero emissions and can supported using existing industry’s, why would you want car?



I am guessing you meant "Why wouldn't you want that car"

here are my reason I would prefer the EV

1, I can charge at home avoiding wasting time going to service stations.

2, Charging at home using my solar panels (like I am doing right know), is going to be more energy efficient than liquid fuel source.

3, charging EV's also uses existing infrastructure, and we will have less tanker trucks on our roads and highways.

4, As I said explain EV's are a more efficient use of the energy.

there are others, but my wife just called and lunch is ready


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## Muckman

I’m not talking about personal preference here. I’m talking about engineering and what’s logical. 
Not everyone has the opportunity to plug their car in at night more then 10 hours at a time and only use it ones a day. 
I highly suggest you learn how cars a built and what actually goes into making a car. The car industry is a terrible industry to be in, being that you only make a 4% profit on every car you sell make a . I wouldn’t be surprised if Telsta actually makes a loss on his cars. His company how ever might be doing ok but his cars probably don’t make money . They just don’t make enough of them to sell. I just don’t see Tesla going any further and I belt their car industry is at a end.
The only reason why they have gotten this far is because the majority of auto manufacturers haven’t taken it seriously until till now.
VAG have ramped up there efforts greatly and I do believe this will be the end of Tesla as we know it. 
VW and Audi are gearing up to release there EV line soon and it’s unbelievable what they are doing and they have the strength to back it up and ya e the manufacturing facilities around the world already. Tesla don’t. There production line is too slow. 
Why would you buy a Tesla for $90,000 when you can get a VW FOR $40,000? 

or just keep your existing car and use synthetic fuel lol save ya money


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## Value Collector

]


Muckman said:


> I’m not talking about personal preference here. I’m talking about engineering and what’s logical.
> Not everyone has the opportunity to plug their car in at night more then 10 hours at a time and only use it ones a day.
> I highly suggest you learn how cars a built and what actually goes into making a car. The car industry is a terrible industry to be in, being that you only make a 4% profit on every car you sell make a . I wouldn’t be surprised if Telsta actually makes a loss on his cars. His company how ever might be doing ok but his cars probably don’t make money . They just don’t make enough of them to sell. I just don’t see Tesla going any further and I belt their car industry is at a end.
> The only reason why they have gotten this far is because the majority of auto manufacturers haven’t taken it seriously until till now.
> VAG have ramped up there efforts greatly and I do believe this will be the end of Tesla as we know it.
> VW and Audi are gearing up to release there EV line soon and it’s unbelievable what they are doing and they have the strength to back it up and ya e the manufacturing facilities around the world already. Tesla don’t. There production line is too slow.
> Why would you buy a Tesla for $90,000 when you can get a VW FOR $40,000?
> 
> or just keep your existing car and use synthetic fuel lol save ya money




You are right, only about 90% of people could charge their cars at home, Others will have to use fast charging locations, so EVs only suit 95% of the population at the moment.

As for your opinion on Tesla as a company, we will just wait and see, for now they are going from strength to strength, before you suggest I learn more about manufacturing of cars, maybe you should learn more about the profit margins Tesla is already achieving on the cars they sell.


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## galumay

Value Collector said:


> I don’t think car racing has any relevance to how any or us use our cars in our daily life.




Nearly every single thing we take for granted i our cars in daily life is the result of advances made in car racing.I would caution against dismissing it as the source of future advances.



Value Collector said:


> but, I can kinda of tell you have you mind made up, and probably don’t want to delve into the side of things.




There is a bit of pot, kettle, black in that statement! Neither of you seem very open to considering the other's viewpoint.



Value Collector said:


> Charging at home using my solar panels (like I am doing right know), is going to be more energy efficient than liquid fuel source.




Maybe, but solar panels are horribly inefficient in terms of the materials to make them, the associated mining and processing, the waste and the all the environmental issues with batteries. 

I think there are still a lot of moving parts in this story, its certainly not over yet, my guess is odds are Tesla fails, while disrupting legacy players, reasonable possibility that final solution for transportation energy wont be EV's with batteries, new fuels will extend life of ICE's in many applications from much longer than people initially guessed, EV's from mainstream car makers will likely dominate inner city, low volume, short haul transportation in the short to medium term, remembering that many more things can happen than will happen, and we are nearly always wrong when assume we know what the future holds.

Anyway, I am out of this thread, I have no interest in Tesla as an investor nor as a car owner, so my energy is better spent elsewhere. It will be fascinating to see what the next few decades hold for personal mass transportation.


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## Muckman




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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> View attachment 106958




You are confusing the total profit or loss of the company with the profit margin on each vehicle they sell, you originally claimed that they were losing money on each vehicle they sell, which is not true.

Tesla is currently making pretty decent profit margins on each vehicle they sell.

however at a company level they have reported losses in recent years due to other activities such as building out the charging network, research and development of their driverless systems, building new factories etc etc


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## Value Collector

galumay said:


> Nearly every single thing we take for granted i our cars in daily life is the result of advances made in car racing.I would caution against dismissing it as the source of future advances.




My point is simply The fact that electric vehicle racing is hindered with charging taking longer than liquid fueling is not relevant to how any of us drive our cars in daily life



> There is a bit of pot, kettle, black in that statement! Neither of you seem very open to considering the other's viewpoint.




Not at all, I understand where he is coming from, I have done quite a bit of research into synthetic fuels. I have discussed them in the other thread, shared videos about how they are made, and am pretty excited about them for the future of the airline industry etc

But, as I am trying to explain to here, they simply just don't sense for vehicles.




> Maybe, but solar panels are horribly inefficient in terms of the materials to make them, the associated mining and processing, the waste and the all the environmental issues with batteries.




not compared to the amount of coal they offset over their life, and the fact that their materials will end up being recycled.


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## Muckman

That was my point. The profit of the cars.
They are struggling as it is, soon as the VAG start to take the Ev market seriously, it will lead the way in innovation of ev production and it will be very hard for Tesla to compete with an auto motive giant. 
I just don’t think the whole battery  vehicle is ever going to take off. Hens why no company has taken it seriously. 
Battery cars have been nothing more then a gimmick for manufacturers. The racing industry is the real truth to the superior technology and frankly I don’t see a battery car finishing the 24h Le mans 
Remember, diesel cars were not Evan considered an option till Audi proved the TDI technology at Le Mans. Before the diesel gate scandal diesel car’s was the be all end all.


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## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> That was my point. The profit of the cars.
> They are struggling as it is, soon as the VAG start to take the Ev market seriously, it will lead the way in innovation of ev production and it will be very hard for Tesla to compete with an auto motive giant.
> I just don’t think the whole battery  vehicle is ever going to take off. Hens why no company has taken it seriously.
> Battery cars have been nothing more then a gimmick for manufacturers. The racing industry is the real truth to the superior technology and frankly I don’t see a battery car finishing the 24h Le mans
> Remember, diesel cars were not Evan considered an option till Audi proved the TDI technology at Le Mans. Before the diesel gate scandal diesel car’s was the be all end all.




You are still a bit confused, Tesla is making over 10% profit margin on every car they sell, ford for example makes about 5%.

So they aren’t losing money on every car they sell as you claimed. (have you actually looked at their annual reports?)

So far no other car company has a product on the market that can even compete with the 2012 Model S, so Tesla are way ahead of the competition.

but I don’t whether other car companies end up getting into the game, If some one makes a better car than Tesla is 10 years I will buy that one.

but at the moment it’s a bit like saying “just wait till Nokia bring out a smart phone, then they will smash Apple” you know that never happened, Tesla may be so far ahead of the curve that other manufacturers won’t be able to compete.

ofcourse 1 or 2 of them may become “Samsung” in the smart phone analogy.


----------



## ducati916

jog on
duc


----------



## Muckman

Value Collector said:


> but at the moment it’s a bit like saying “just wait till Nokia bring out a smart phone, then they will smash Apple” you know that never happened, Tesla may be so far ahead of the curve that other manufacturers won’t be able to compete.
> 
> ofcourse 1 or 2 of them may become “Samsung” in the smart phone analogy.




I don’t see how that’s relevant? The VAG is a way larger automotive company then telsa.


----------



## Muckman

ducati916 said:


> View attachment 106973
> View attachment 106974
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc




I don’t see any reason why anyone would brag about sale reports at a time like this. Everyone is hurting and it’s go Notting to do with outcome of product or what people want. Australian auto industry is hurting something shocking. The closing of ford and hold plants and now all Holden dealers and soon to be Honda dealers to pull out of of Australia is just not good 
Covid restrictions is just the final nail in the coffin. 
The only thing I like about Tesla is the fact they sell their own cars. 
Biggest thing I hate is talking to a 3rd party dealer. Specially with parts. Unfortunately parts departments in Australia is just out of control. When bmw sell a bearing shell for $100 for something that is worth $10 is the reason why Australian automotive industry is failing. 
We need to start building our own cars again.


----------



## Lucky777

Tesla is making new factories during a “economic downturn”, deliveries percentage based is increasing while automakers are decreasing. It’s not all about just being a electric vehicle, look more into it. 2 automakers CEO’s have recently praised that Tesla is ahead of the game. 

Their margin has increased per vehicle sold and will continue to increase with improved batteries and manufacturing costs.


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> I don’t see how that’s relevant? The VAG is a way larger automotive company then telsa.




I am not sure how VAG can be an argument against EVs, they are releasing their own EVs.

But Nokia was the worlds biggest phone company too, that didn’t save them.

have you seen the speed that Tesla is opening factories? They aren’t a little player anymore.


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> I don’t see any reason why anyone would brag about sale reports at a time like this. Everyone is hurting and it’s go Notting to do with outcome of product or what people want. Australian auto industry is hurting something shocking. The closing of ford and hold plants and now all Holden dealers and soon to be Honda dealers to pull out of of Australia is just not good
> Covid restrictions is just the final nail in the coffin.
> The only thing I like about Tesla is the fact they sell their own cars.
> Biggest thing I hate is talking to a 3rd party dealer. Specially with parts. Unfortunately parts departments in Australia is just out of control. When bmw sell a bearing shell for $100 for something that is worth $10 is the reason why Australian automotive industry is failing.
> We need to start building our own cars again.




The first two cars I owned were Holden commodores, all my family cars growing up were holdens, 

Hell I am still wearing Holden thongs today, that my in-laws bought me at Xmas because they thought I was a Holden guy.

But just like I moved from Nokia to IPhones when I realised they were better, I have dumped Holden for Tesla, no way would I consider a petrol car.

——————
try and forget about all your pre existing bias, and try and look at Tesla cars with fresh eyes, you will see they are very good cars. (And that’s coming from a consumer, not some one that has Tesla stock they are ramping)


----------



## Muckman

I just don’t see telsa cars an engineering achievement 

The fact that they have to compromise the design around the battery of the car ses it all. 
Your not buying a car it’s that simple. Your buying a battery with wheels. It’s that simple.
It’s nothing more then an over priced appliance. Anyone who is convinced they are buying one as an enthusiast is brainwashed. Honestly you have no idear what cars are all about if you think a telsa is a car.

Ok when you design a car first thing is weight. Everything you do you must keep your weight down. Putting a battery pack in the floor pan is not a option for a designer. It’s too heavy, and it’s not where all your structural integrity is so you try and save as much weight in the floor as much as possible. All the strength in a car is in the pillars and roof. What they call a space frame. It’s very strong and it’s light weight. Or you make your whole frame from carbon fibre which is very expensive. 

To sit down and knowing your car is already going to weigh 500kg without even design the car is just ridiculous. It’s not efficient. So all up with all the equipment your always got about 600KG of dead weight on your car at all times not including your engine and drivetrain. It’s just not logical. And it’s why it’s never going to happen. Again, I’m all for the electric engine but battery cars is not the answer. Get rid of the 500kg batter then we can talk.

To be driving a Tesla with a half of a tank and knowing your carrying an excess of 300kg of dead weight is like being in a traitor pull


----------



## Lucky777

You can watch this video from Sandy Munro (ex ford and gm engineer), current fiat-Chrysler contractor talk about Tesla. He has broken down and stripped a Tesla completely and shares his views on it. Maybe it might change your mind.


----------



## Lucky777

What you said is true, but this is the current technology that we have (battery powered EV’s). This is a push towards for cars to be improved and more sustainable with the resources that we have. Sure, maybe in the future with new emerging technologies that battery powered will be not suitable but that has not come to fruition at the moment. Probably in the next 5-20 years, who knows.


----------



## Muckman

Lucky777 said:


> You can watch this video from Sandy Munro (ex ford and gm engineer), current fiat-Chrysler contractor talk about Tesla. He has broken down and stripped a Tesla completely and shares his views on it. Maybe it might change your mind.





You said it there EX Engineers lol


----------



## Muckman

Lucky777 said:


> What you said is true, but this is the current technology that we have (battery powered EV’s). This is a push towards for cars to be improved and more sustainable with the resources that we have. Sure, maybe in the future with new emerging technologies that battery powered will be not suitable but that has not come to fruition at the moment. Probably in the next 5-20 years, who knows.




I just think telsa owners are brain washed to a point that even when I tell them that if they had a choice between a v8 with zero emission to a telsa, they still choose the telsa lol like WTF? even when the engineering is against then they still insist. 
Yes I would love to carry 500kg of dead weight yes sir


----------



## Lucky777

Well you clearly already formed your opinion. Good for you. 

if anyone wanted to know more:
https://munrolive.com/


----------



## Muckman

If I had to choose I think I’d take his


----------



## Lucky777

So it’s battery powered? Cool story bruh.


----------



## Muckman

Don’t care It just looks better then a telsa. So it has a battery and it looks better so why wouldn’t you go this?


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> I just don’t see telsa cars an engineering achievement
> 
> The fact that they have to compromise the design around the battery of the car ses it all.
> Your not buying a car it’s that simple. Your buying a battery with wheels. It’s that simple.
> It’s nothing more then an over priced appliance. Anyone who is convinced they are buying one as an enthusiast is brainwashed. Honestly you have no idear what cars are all about if you think a telsa is a car.
> 
> Ok when you design a car first thing is weight. Everything you do you must keep your weight down. Putting a battery pack in the floor pan is not a option for a designer. It’s too heavy, and it’s not where all your structural integrity is so you try and save as much weight in the floor as much as possible. All the strength in a car is in the pillars and roof. What they call a space frame. It’s very strong and it’s light weight. Or you make your whole frame from carbon fibre which is very expensive.
> 
> To sit down and knowing your car is already going to weigh 500kg without even design the car is just ridiculous. It’s not efficient. So all up with all the equipment your always got about 600KG of dead weight on your car at all times not including your engine and drivetrain. It’s just not logical. And it’s why it’s never going to happen. Again, I’m all for the electric engine but battery cars is not the answer. Get rid of the 500kg batter then we can talk.
> 
> To be driving a Tesla with a half of a tank and knowing your carrying an excess of 300kg of dead weight is like being in a traitor pull




Sure Tesla’s have a battery, and petrol cars have a fuel tank and complicates drive chain, who cares?

sure they weigh a bit more, but they are still way more efficient so that extra weight is logical.

I know exactly what a car is all about, it’s about moving the people and things around that I need to move, and to get to the places I need to go, The Tesla achieves this goal perfectly. 

Hahaha, you can call it an appliance if you like, but it is superior to any other car I have owned. 

—————

You are fixated on things that are no problem in reality, if you really think Tesla is a crap company, with crap products don’t talk about it, put your money where you mouth is and take a short position.


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> I just think telsa owners are brain washed to a point that even when I tell them that if they had a choice between a v8 with zero emission to a telsa, they still choose the telsa lol like WTF? even when the engineering is against then they still insist.
> Yes I would love to carry 500kg of dead weight yes sir




you are brainwashed if would choose the V8.

why would you choose the V8, firstly it doesn’t exist, Tesla’s do.

Secondly the V8 will be slower, it makes more noise, you can’t fill it home, it’s more expensive to fill, you are just brain washed into thinking V8s are manly.

Watch this street legal Tesla beat the $1million super cheap auto V8 super car.


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> Don’t care It just looks better then a telsa. So it has a battery and it looks better so




So get one then, no one is trying to force you to get a Tesla


> why wouldn’t you go this?




do they have a fast charging network I can use like Tesla does?

Do they have auto pilot I can use on my road trips?

Are they cheaper than the Model 3 Tesla?

Are they even available in Australia yet?

look, if there was a Better ev on the market than the model 3 for the same price point I would have gotten that. 

but you do you, if you like the look of something else get it, if you want a V8 get that, no one is trying to force you to buy a Tesla, all I am saying is that at the moment for what I need and want Tesla has the best offering.


----------



## orr

The metrics of just the auto element of Teslas production point toward a continued, repeat continued, expansion,  in the realms of 50% of unit production  per annum .... 
It's the math..... I don't care if they never turn a profit ,,, the math points to 30 million units by 2030... Oh deary me if they only  achieve 20 odd million.    
And that's just auto production....

Fun fact.... Tesla's are almost 10x less likely to be in an accident while in auto pilot as measured in miles traveled than human(chimpanzee) piloted vehicle... go you monkeys.


----------



## Muckman

Value Collector said:


> you are brainwashed if would choose the V8.
> 
> why would you choose the V8, firstly it doesn’t exist, Tesla’s do.
> 
> Secondly the V8 will be slower, it makes more noise, you can’t fill it home, it’s more expensive to fill, you are just brain washed into thinking V8s are manly.
> 
> Watch this street legal Tesla beat the $1million super cheap auto V8 super car.










You do know that a race car is set up for endurance right? Like you do know that ?
Surly you know that any car on this planet can outdo a telsa in a 24hour race or any race over its range capacity. A Tesla is a one shot only. There is no refuelling for a Tesla ok. A V8 or any car can stop and refuel. So if it’s just A to B your talking about


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> You do know that a race car is set up for endurance right? Like you do know that ?
> Surly you know that any car on this planet can outdo a telsa in a 24hour race or any race over its range capacity. A Tesla is a one shot only. There is no refuelling for a Tesla ok. A V8 or any car can stop and refuel. So if it’s just A to B your talking about
> 
> View attachment 107002




How often do you take part in 24 hour races? If they wanted too they could set up a Tesla to do a battery swap in about the same time as refueling takes, but they realised it’s not necessary and there is no benefit, because super charging is so quick anyway, and on a road trip you have to pee, it’s the human body that slows down road trips,  not charging.

You can certainly do a 24 hour road trip in a Tesla in about the same time as you would in a petrol car as I have already explained, charging the Tesla along a Brisbane to Sydney type route doesn’t add anymore time to your road trip as you would normally take.

——————

90 second battery swap, without driver even getting out.

 Check out this video of the automated battery swap, It’s faster than refueling your petrol car.


----------



## Muckman




----------



## Muckman

Value Collector said:


> How often do you take part in 24 hour races? If they wanted too they could set up a Tesla to do a battery swap in about the same time as refueling takes, but they realised it’s not necessary and there is no benefit, because super charging is so quick anyway, and on a road trip you have to pee, it’s the human body that slows down road trips,  not charging.
> 
> You can certainly do a 24 hour road trip in a Tesla in about the same time as you would in a petrol car as I have already explained, charging the Tesla along a Brisbane to Sydney type route doesn’t add anymore time to your road trip as you would normally take.
> 
> ——————
> 
> 90 second battery swap, without driver even getting out.
> 
> Check out this video of the automated battery swap, It’s faster than refueling your petrol car.





Hahaha that video posted 2013 lol pretty sure they fugued out that it was a completely stupid idear from the start and it was just a gimmick.
Who in the right mind is going to have hundreds or thousands of spare battery cells just laying around to be swapped out? And not mowing what condition the replaced unit your getting. Sorry that idear is just completely abandoned and stupid don’t even know why you’d even bring it up just shows how desperate you are to try and win the argument. 
Admit it. A V8 or any other engine that runs on a Co2 neutral fuel is the death of Tesla. Renewable energy that creates carbon neutral liquid fuel that has more density and that can be used in any vehicle today. And be transported using existing infrastructure  and also usable in the industrial and commercial sector. Why would you want a Tesla ? 
Remember that 500kg dead weight not getting lighter and it’s not gonna last for ever. They age and there’s nothing you can do about it. You can’t fix it at home and it’s god dam expensive to replace. It’s just a huge liability to have under your car and iv seen so many horror stories. 
Clean fuel clean engines that’s the key. 
Small capacity engines with Hibrid  systems with super capacitors with integrated electric motors.

Even Formula 1 is going carbon neutral switching to 2 stroke engines running synthetic fuels having high power bands with a small capacity with high torque electric motors. All co2 neutral. 

You will see a lot of change in the next 2 years believe me


----------



## Muckman

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...tranded-hours-half-mile-long-line-charge.html


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> Hahaha that video posted 2013 lol pretty sure they fugued out that it was a completely stupid idear from the start and it was just a gimmick.
> Who in the right mind is going to have hundreds or thousands of spare battery cells just laying around to be swapped out? And not mowing what condition the replaced unit your getting. Sorry that idear is just completely abandoned and stupid don’t even know why you’d even bring it up just shows how desperate you are to try and win the argument.
> Admit it. A V8 or any other engine that runs on a Co2 neutral fuel is the death of Tesla. Renewable energy that creates carbon neutral liquid fuel that has more density and that can be used in any vehicle today. And be transported using existing infrastructure  and also usable in the industrial and commercial sector. Why would you want a Tesla ?
> Remember that 500kg dead weight not getting lighter and it’s not gonna last for ever. They age and there’s nothing you can do about it. You can’t fix it at home and it’s god dam expensive to replace. It’s just a huge liability to have under your car and iv seen so many horror stories.
> Clean fuel clean engines that’s the key.
> Small capacity engines with Hibrid  systems with super capacitors with integrated electric motors.
> 
> Even Formula 1 is going carbon neutral switching to 2 stroke engines running synthetic fuels having high power bands with a small capacity with high torque electric motors. All co2 neutral.
> 
> You will see a lot of change in the next 2 years believe me
> 
> View attachment 107003




Yeah, as I said they realised it’s not needed, because super charging is good enough. but it shows you what is possible if they wanted to.

I show you the battery swap as an example of what could be done if they wanted to get into racing, since you seem hung up on that.

——————-
you are just repeating yourself now.

you don’t seem to be paying attention to the fact that it is not about energy density, it is about energy efficiency.

Do yourself a favour and do a bit of research and answer these 3 questions.

1, how much energy has to be used to create 1L of tour carbon neutral fuel.

2, how far can a V8 drive on this 1L

3, how far could an EV drive if that energy was used to charge a battery instead.

————
Any way, unless you can understand the answers to those 3 questions I don’t think you will get it.

but you will eventually as society moves away from the combustion engine, just like we moved away from the horse.


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...tranded-hours-half-mile-long-line-charge.html





Hahaha, people with petrol cars get stranded all the time because of flat batteries, and have to call road side assistance.

I have never had a flat battery in my Tesla, but over the years my commodore had multiple flat batteries.


----------



## basilio

Found an excellent article analyzing energy use and running costs per 100 klms for electric cars.

The electricity is costed at 27c kwhr





https://thedriven.io/2020/08/03/which-electric-car-is-the-cheapest-to-run/


----------



## Value Collector

basilio said:


> Found an excellent article analyzing energy use and running costs per 100 klms for electric cars.
> 
> The electricity is costed at 27c kwhr
> View attachment 107012
> 
> 
> https://thedriven.io/2020/08/03/which-electric-car-is-the-cheapest-to-run/




It would be interesting to see a similar breakdown for Muckmans beloved V8s here talks about, an then see him explain why the energy density of petrol translates doesn't seem to give V8s any sort of real world advantage, even though is his opinion batteries are "dead weight"


----------



## orr

Thanks Bas fro the per/100km figures...
My case is I do 50,000km/annum(business).  That costs me  $8k in diesel alone.... the Cybertruck will half that cost even if i have to buy the  Electricity from the grid(not my postion)... Thats $4K.
That $4k would finance a $100K loan.
A couple of months back I quizzed Tesla in Martin Pl (Syd) on their finance options; McQuarrie are stiched up wth Tesla at circa 3.75% from memory.

Oh while we're here; Muckers, What (if anything) do you know about 'full body casting'? (patents owed by TSLA)... And just for giggles (if anything) of  FormulaE???


----------



## Value Collector

Muckman said:


>





I hope you understand that this is a fake prank video.

however, an interesting point to note is that even if you did charge your Tesla using a petrol generator, you would still get more km’s per litre than if you put that petrol into a petrol car.

There are actually hybrids that use that exact theory, the Chevy Bolt is an electric car with only a small battery, that is charged as you drive using an on board petrol engine, you fuel it up like a regular petrol car and it burns the petrol to make electricity.

It is more efficient than a straight petrol car, but less efficient than charging a bigger battery from the grid.


----------



## Value Hunter

I am quite skeptical of the future of the automotive industry as a whole over the next 20 years. I think in 20 years time there could be potentially a lot less cars being sold than today. Despite car ownership rates currently rising in emerging economies, self driving cars will prove an existential threat to the automotive industry.

Currently most people buy a car and 95% + of the time (unless its being used for commercial purposes) it just sits somewhere parked. So you pay $20,000+ for something that sits there unused for the majority of the week.

Once there is a fleet of self driving taxis instead of everybody owning a car that sits in the drive way, most people will stop owning cars and will instead hail self driving taxis (they will be cheap once you have removed the taxi licensing fees and the human labour cost out of the taxi prices) by pressing button on a mobile phone app. Instead of every household having a car , one self driving taxi will be able to service many households, thus drastically reducing the total number of cars needed. The auto industry will then need to consolidate into even fewer automotive companies with cheaper products being sold at lower profit margins (if your customers become companies like Uber or former taxi fleet operators instead of individual consumers, you have fewer but larger customers with more negotiating power who will force your product prices lower).

That is just my best guess as to what the future could like look. For all I know I could be 100% wrong and people could be using flying taxis or teleporting or zipping around in hyperloop tubes or whatever the hell else.

I think that the current model of every household having their own car is incredibly costly and inefficient and will not persist as a mass market (it will become a niche market) in the future. The current model of car ownership is the equivalent of every household having their own dairy cow in their backyard because they drink 3 litres of milk per week. It just does not make sense. 

As always though the future is unknowable so maybe I am wrong on that.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Muckman said:


> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...tranded-hours-half-mile-long-line-charge.html






I think electric scooters and bikes will be OK for those that need to just zip around the city/region quickly.

Electric cars are no where near cementing their future monopoly yet. As for Tesla, they will be pushed out of the European and Asian markets; then eventually be consumed by the American auto manufacturers.

The Germans are already sticking it to Tesla: Tesla market share crushed in Germany: _*"Tesla’s share of the EV market plunged to 8.7% year-to-date, from 18.4% last year. Competition is now huge and across the spectrum. Tesla faces the same situation globally."

(https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-crushed-germany-evs-vw-renault-hyundai-group)





*_


----------



## Value Hunter

I am actually a very anti-car person and prefer to get around by bicycle. I think to a large extent cars create their own demand in a negative feedback loop. Having lots of cars and big houses creates the need for cars because you have all these roads, highways, parking lots, driveways, petrol stations, truck stops, car dealerships, big houses, etc that all take up space that could be used for shops and apartments (or smaller houses). This (coupled with everyone wanting their own quarter acre block instead of accepting apartment/terrace living) results in everything being far apart and the city being sprawled out creating even more need for cars. If you get rid of cars (and quarter acre blocks) you stop needing  cars so much.

Singapore has around 5.6 million people and around 1 million vehicles. NSW has 7.6 million people and 5.6 million vehicles...... Singapore has 5.6 million people in 725 square kilometres. Sydney has 5.25 million people in 12,368 square kilometres.....

Mr. Money Moustache delves into this concept more on his blog:

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2019/02/27/how-to-create-reality/

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/02/10/the-happy-city/


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Value Hunter said:


> I am actually a very anti-car person and prefer to get around by bicycle. I think to a large extent cars create their own demand in a negative feedback loop. Having lots of cars and big houses creates the need for cars because you have all these roads, highways, parking lots, driveways, petrol stations, truck stops, car dealerships, etc that all take up space that could be used for shops and housing. This (coupled with everyone wanting their own quarter acre block instead of accepting apartment living) results in everything being far apart and the city being sprawled out creating even more need for cars. If you get rid of cars you stop needing them so much.
> 
> Singapore has around 5.6 million people and around 1 million vehicles. NSW has 7.6 million people and 5.6 million vehicles...... Singapore has 5.6 million people in 725 square kilometres. Sydney has 5.25 million people in 12,368 square kilometres.....
> 
> Mr. Money Moustache delves into this concept more on his blog:
> 
> https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2019/02/27/how-to-create-reality/
> 
> https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/02/10/the-happy-city/




Fast, clean, reliable, frequent and cheap public transport is really the way to go in large and densely populated cities. The Singaporeans are smart city planners who are forward looking.

I understand that some people will need a vehicle for work or if they have a family with kids.

Really; cars are a depreciating asset that are costly to maintain. I haven't owned a car in 10 years.

Many supporters of EVs are trying to repurpose vehicles as grid batteries. I don't see how that will work well because the purpose of owning a vehicle is for convenience to be able to jump in and drive off at any time and at short notice.


----------



## Value Collector

Value Hunter said:


> I am quite skeptical of the future of the automotive industry as a whole over the next 20 years. I think in 20 years time there could be potentially a lot less cars being sold than today. Despite car ownership rates currently rising in emerging economies, self driving cars will prove an existential threat to the automotive industry.
> 
> Currently most people buy a car and 95% + of the time (unless its being used for commercial purposes) it just sits somewhere parked. So you pay $20,000+ for something that sits there unused for the majority of the week.
> 
> Once there is a fleet of self driving taxis instead of everybody owning a car that sits in the drive way, most people will stop owning cars and will instead hail self driving taxis (they will be cheap once you have removed the taxi licensing fees and the human labour cost out of the taxi prices) by pressing button on a mobile phone app. Instead of every household having a car , one self driving taxi will be able to service many households, thus drastically reducing the total number of cars needed. The auto industry will then need to consolidate into even fewer automotive companies with cheaper products being sold at lower profit margins (if your customers become companies like Uber or former taxi fleet operators instead of individual consumers, you have fewer but larger customers with more negotiating power who will force your product prices lower).
> 
> That is just my best guess as to what the future could like look. For all I know I could be 100% wrong and people could be using flying taxis or teleporting or zipping around in hyperloop tubes or whatever the hell else.
> 
> I think that the current model of every household having their own car is incredibly costly and inefficient and will not persist as a mass market (it will become a niche market) in the future. The current model of car ownership is the equivalent of every household having their own dairy cow in their backyard because they drink 3 litres of milk per week. It just does not make sense.
> 
> As always though the future is unknowable so maybe I am wrong on that.




I tend to agree that less people will own cars, but I believe more car miles will be driven.

Which of the existing players do you think have the highest chances of creating a self driving fleet? I think Tesla.

Firstly I think Automated charging is a lot safer than automated petrol refilling, so I think electric car fleets have an edge and Tesla already have automatic chargers.

Tesla is already so far ahead with its self driving tech.

Tesla has already stated that their intentions are to create a self driving fleet.

Check out this charger, its easy to imagine these automatic electric chargers, I am not sure an automatic petrol bowser would be as safe.


----------



## Smurf1976

Value Collector said:


> I tend to agree that less people will own cars, but I believe more car miles will be driven.




The entire concept of public transport and high density just got a pretty big slap in the face from a virus.

Cars aren't going away anytime soon in my view, indeed we may even see a move toward them since in due course a self-driving car removes the need for a drivers license or even being able to acquire one. Eg a blind person or a child, neither of whom can drive a conventional car, could travel by themselves in an autonomous vehicle quite easily so long as appropriate safeguards are incorporated.

There's also the point that the whole argument for the 1970's > present push for high density and public transport rests upon the notion that cars and petrol are joined at the hip. Apartments and upgrading public transport were an advocated response to oil depletion and what was then termed "the greenhouse effect". Switch to electric cars, or any other alternative to petrol etc, and that policy rationale is no longer valid.

Who owns the cars is somewhat irrelevant from the manufacturer's perspective. 100 cars each traveling 15,000 km a year and lasting lasting 25 years or 10 cars doing 3000 km a week and being worn out after 2.5 years makes no real difference to overall sales. Etc. Not that I'm convinced everyone will give up on private ownership but even if they do it doesn't kill the vehicle market as such.

The only real doubt I have is whether Tesla makes it happen or some other company ultimately jumps ahead and beats them? There's plenty of historical precedents where early leadership in a field didn't result in being the ultimate winner.


----------



## Value Hunter

Value Collector and Smurf I think you guys missed a few key points in your analsyis:
1) Carpooling
2) Commoditization of cars
3) Remote work
4) Ageing population
5) High density

1) Carpooling: Once self driving taxis become common place the next step will be to have self driving taxi carpools become common. In any densely populated suburb during peak hours there are going to be a lot of people heading towards the CBD for work, so why should they pay more to sit in a taxi by themselves when they can carpool for less than half the cost (even if it takes slightly longer). Obviously the more people that carpool the less cars you need.

2) Commoditization: People generally only care about the brand of car when they own the car or lease it for a substantial period of time. Not many people care about the brand of car of a Taxi or Uber they ride or the brand of the bus they ride. And so all those self driving taxis will be commoditization. Companies like Tesla or Porsche, etc a lot of their profitability rests on selling a premium brand product to consumers with high profit margins.

At the moment Tesla is trying to be the Apple of the car industry. Obviously when there are mostly self driving taxis and nobody cares about brand anymore it will become a race to the bottom to produce the cheapest cars. Tesla is competing against car companies that pump out 3 or 5 or 10 times as many cars in total (I mean all cars not just electric) and have much bigger balance sheets. Once all the big car companies start mass producing self driving taxis there is no guarantee Tesla will be market leader and even if Tesla is the market leader all those cars will likely have very little profit margin in them.

3) Remote Work: Coronavirus accelerated the trend to online/virtual meetings, people working from home, etc. This is a long-term trend in my opinion. In 20 years time far fewer people will be commuting to the CBDs for work 5 days per week than is currently the case. The biggest usage of cars currently is to commute to work. When you reduce the need to commute for work you reduce the usage and sales of cars.....

4) We all know that in the wealthiest economies that have have higher car ownership rates the populations are ageing (and in some cases also shrinking). Pensioners do not go to work and they are stay at home far more than younger people.

5) High density: Smurf pollution and oil depletion is only one argument for high density living. Even if you remove those arguments it still makes sense for a lot of reasons. Have you even read the Mr. Money Moustache blog posts I linked to? Walkability, reduced commute times, reduced costs for all car related infrastructure such as road construction and repair, traffic police, parking rangers, parking lots, etc.
When you have spent some time living in a beautiful Colonial or European style old town centre where you can walk and cycle everywhere living in a city designed for cars seems like sad joke. Lifestyle and system costs are much better in walkable/cyclable areas/cities. You don't agree cities like Amsterdam or Singapore are a preferable design to cities like Sydney or Los Angeles?
To my mind its completely retarded, uneconomical, ass backwards and even almost criminal to build cities designed for cars instead of people.

6) Intersection of points 3 and 5. I am not sure exactly how these two points will influence each other in the future. Will the CBDs hollow out with the densely populated beach-side suburbs becoming even more densely populated? Or will more Sydney-siders move to Wollongong or the Blue mountains if they only need to spend 2 days per week in the office instead of 5? Maybe a little bit of both? CBDs hollowing out with beach side suburbs and satellite towns/cities becoming more crowded? Whatever happens in the future the population distribution of a lot of cities will probably look quite different in 20 years time and its hard to say what the impact on car usage/demand will be.


----------



## Value Collector

Value Hunter said:


> Value Collector and Smurf I think you guys missed a few key points in your analsyis:
> 1) Carpooling
> 2) Commoditization of cars
> 3) Remote work
> 4) Ageing population
> 5) High density
> 
> 1) Carpooling: Once self driving taxis become common place the next step will be to have self driving taxi carpools become common. In any densely populated suburb during peak hours there are going to be a lot of people heading towards the CBD for work, so why should they pay more to sit in a taxi by themselves when they can carpool for less than half the cost (even if it takes slightly longer). Obviously the more people that carpool the less cars you need.
> 
> 2) Commoditization: People generally only care about the brand of car when they own the car or lease it for a substantial period of time. Not many people care about the brand of car of a Taxi or Uber they ride or the brand of the bus they ride. And so all those self driving taxis will be commoditization. Companies like Tesla or Porsche, etc a lot of their profitability rests on selling a premium brand product to consumers with high profit margins.
> 
> At the moment Tesla is trying to be the Apple of the car industry. Obviously when there are mostly self driving taxis and nobody cares about brand anymore it will become a race to the bottom to produce the cheapest cars. Tesla is competing against car companies that pump out 3 or 5 or 10 times as many cars in total (I mean all cars not just electric) and have much bigger balance sheets. Once all the big car companies start mass producing self driving taxis there is no guarantee Tesla will be market leader and even if Tesla is the market leader all those cars will likely have very little profit margin in them.
> 
> 3) Remote Work: Coronavirus accelerated the trend to online/virtual meetings, people working from home, etc. This is a long-term trend in my opinion. In 20 years time far fewer people will be commuting to the CBDs for work 5 days per week than is currently the case. The biggest usage of cars currently is to commute to work. When you reduce the need to commute for work you reduce the usage and sales of cars.....
> 
> 4) We all know that in the wealthiest economies that have have higher car ownership rates the populations are ageing (and in some cases also shrinking). Pensioners do not go to work and they are stay at home far more than younger people.
> 
> 5) High density: Smurf pollution and oil depletion is only one argument for high density living. Even if you remove those arguments it still makes sense for a lot of reasons. Have you even read the Mr. Money Moustache blog posts I linked to? Walkability, reduced commute times, reduced costs for all car related infrastructure such as road construction and repair, traffic police, parking rangers, parking lots, etc.
> When you have spent some time living in a beautiful Colonial or European style old town centre where you can walk and cycle everywhere living in a city designed for cars seems like sad joke. Lifestyle and system costs are much better in walkable/cyclable areas/cities. You don't agree cities like Amsterdam or Singapore are a preferable design to cities like Sydney or Los Angeles?
> To my mind its completely retarded, uneconomical, ass backwards and even almost criminal to build cities designed for cars instead of people.
> 
> 6) Intersection of points 3 and 5. I am not sure exactly how these two points will influence each other in the future. Will the CBDs hollow out with the densely populated beach-side suburbs becoming even more densely populated? Or will more Sydney-siders move to Wollongong or the Blue mountains if they only need to spend 2 days per week in the office instead of 5? Maybe a little bit of both? CBDs hollowing out with beach side suburbs and satellite towns/cities becoming more crowded? Whatever happens in the future the population distribution of a lot of cities will probably look quite different in 20 years time and its hard to say what the impact on car usage/demand will be.




If the cost of private jet rentals dropped significantly, would that be good or bad for the people selling normal commercial flight tickets?

Cheap access to robo taxis won’t encourage car pooling, people will choose private cars wear possible.

especially if it’s a choice of sending your kid to school in a private car vs a shared one.


----------



## Value Collector

Value Hunter said:


> Value Collector and Smurf I think you guys missed a few key points in your analsyis:
> 1) Carpooling
> 2) Commoditization of cars
> 3) Remote work
> 4) Ageing population
> 5) High density
> 
> 1) Carpooling: Once self driving taxis become common place the next step will be to have self driving taxi carpools become common. In any densely populated suburb during peak hours there are going to be a lot of people heading towards the CBD for work, so why should they pay more to sit in a taxi by themselves when they can carpool for less than half the cost (even if it takes slightly longer). Obviously the more people that carpool the less cars you need.
> 
> 2) Commoditization: People generally only care about the brand of car when they own the car or lease it for a substantial period of time. Not many people care about the brand of car of a Taxi or Uber they ride or the brand of the bus they ride. And so all those self driving taxis will be commoditization. Companies like Tesla or Porsche, etc a lot of their profitability rests on selling a premium brand product to consumers with high profit margins.
> 
> At the moment Tesla is trying to be the Apple of the car industry. Obviously when there are mostly self driving taxis and nobody cares about brand anymore it will become a race to the bottom to produce the cheapest cars. Tesla is competing against car companies that pump out 3 or 5 or 10 times as many cars in total (I mean all cars not just electric) and have much bigger balance sheets. Once all the big car companies start mass producing self driving taxis there is no guarantee Tesla will be market leader and even if Tesla is the market leader all those cars will likely have very little profit margin in them.
> 
> 3) Remote Work: Coronavirus accelerated the trend to online/virtual meetings, people working from home, etc. This is a long-term trend in my opinion. In 20 years time far fewer people will be commuting to the CBDs for work 5 days per week than is currently the case. The biggest usage of cars currently is to commute to work. When you reduce the need to commute for work you reduce the usage and sales of cars.....
> 
> 4) We all know that in the wealthiest economies that have have higher car ownership rates the populations are ageing (and in some cases also shrinking). Pensioners do not go to work and they are stay at home far more than younger people.
> 
> 5) High density: Smurf pollution and oil depletion is only one argument for high density living. Even if you remove those arguments it still makes sense for a lot of reasons. Have you even read the Mr. Money Moustache blog posts I linked to? Walkability, reduced commute times, reduced costs for all car related infrastructure such as road construction and repair, traffic police, parking rangers, parking lots, etc.
> When you have spent some time living in a beautiful Colonial or European style old town centre where you can walk and cycle everywhere living in a city designed for cars seems like sad joke. Lifestyle and system costs are much better in walkable/cyclable areas/cities. You don't agree cities like Amsterdam or Singapore are a preferable design to cities like Sydney or Los Angeles?
> To my mind its completely retarded, uneconomical, ass backwards and even almost criminal to build cities designed for cars instead of people.
> 
> 6) Intersection of points 3 and 5. I am not sure exactly how these two points will influence each other in the future. Will the CBDs hollow out with the densely populated beach-side suburbs becoming even more densely populated? Or will more Sydney-siders move to Wollongong or the Blue mountains if they only need to spend 2 days per week in the office instead of 5? Maybe a little bit of both? CBDs hollowing out with beach side suburbs and satellite towns/cities becoming more crowded? Whatever happens in the future the population distribution of a lot of cities will probably look quite different in 20 years time and its hard to say what the impact on car usage/demand will be.





Value Hunter said:


> Value Collector and Smurf I think you guys missed a few key points in your analsyis:
> 1) Carpooling
> 2) Commoditization of cars
> 3) Remote work
> 4) Ageing population
> 5) High density
> 
> 1) Carpooling: Once self driving taxis become common place the next step will be to have self driving taxi carpools become common. In any densely populated suburb during peak hours there are going to be a lot of people heading towards the CBD for work, so why should they pay more to sit in a taxi by themselves when they can carpool for less than half the cost (even if it takes slightly longer). Obviously the more people that carpool the less cars you need.
> 
> 2) Commoditization: People generally only care about the brand of car when they own the car or lease it for a substantial period of time. Not many people care about the brand of car of a Taxi or Uber they ride or the brand of the bus they ride. And so all those self driving taxis will be commoditization. Companies like Tesla or Porsche, etc a lot of their profitability rests on selling a premium brand product to consumers with high profit margins.
> 
> At the moment Tesla is trying to be the Apple of the car industry. Obviously when there are mostly self driving taxis and nobody cares about brand anymore it will become a race to the bottom to produce the cheapest cars. Tesla is competing against car companies that pump out 3 or 5 or 10 times as many cars in total (I mean all cars not just electric) and have much bigger balance sheets. Once all the big car companies start mass producing self driving taxis there is no guarantee Tesla will be market leader and even if Tesla is the market leader all those cars will likely have very little profit margin in them.
> 
> 3) Remote Work: Coronavirus accelerated the trend to online/virtual meetings, people working from home, etc. This is a long-term trend in my opinion. In 20 years time far fewer people will be commuting to the CBDs for work 5 days per week than is currently the case. The biggest usage of cars currently is to commute to work. When you reduce the need to commute for work you reduce the usage and sales of cars.....
> 
> 4) We all know that in the wealthiest economies that have have higher car ownership rates the populations are ageing (and in some cases also shrinking). Pensioners do not go to work and they are stay at home far more than younger people.
> 
> 5) High density: Smurf pollution and oil depletion is only one argument for high density living. Even if you remove those arguments it still makes sense for a lot of reasons. Have you even read the Mr. Money Moustache blog posts I linked to? Walkability, reduced commute times, reduced costs for all car related infrastructure such as road construction and repair, traffic police, parking rangers, parking lots, etc.
> When you have spent some time living in a beautiful Colonial or European style old town centre where you can walk and cycle everywhere living in a city designed for cars seems like sad joke. Lifestyle and system costs are much better in walkable/cyclable areas/cities. You don't agree cities like Amsterdam or Singapore are a preferable design to cities like Sydney or Los Angeles?
> To my mind its completely retarded, uneconomical, ass backwards and even almost criminal to build cities designed for cars instead of people.
> 
> 6) Intersection of points 3 and 5. I am not sure exactly how these two points will influence each other in the future. Will the CBDs hollow out with the densely populated beach-side suburbs becoming even more densely populated? Or will more Sydney-siders move to Wollongong or the Blue mountains if they only need to spend 2 days per week in the office instead of 5? Maybe a little bit of both? CBDs hollowing out with beach side suburbs and satellite towns/cities becoming more crowded? Whatever happens in the future the population distribution of a lot of cities will probably look quite different in 20 years time and its hard to say what the impact on car usage/demand will be.




but either way, my simple point was that this is very good for Tesla, not so good for the others.


----------



## satanoperca

Value Collector said:


> Cheap access to robo taxis won’t encourage car pooling, people will choose private cars wear possible.
> 
> especially if it’s a choice of sending your kid to school in a private car vs a shared one.




I don't think it is that black and white.
If for example sending my child to school in :
A) Shared Car costs $1.00
B) Private Car costs $3.00
Then I will select A.

But there is always option 3. Tell the child for the betterment of their physical and mental health, ride your bike, you also get the added benefit of freedom.

I personally, use my car very little and will not be purchasing a new one for many years, riding my bike gives me more benefits at less costs.


----------



## Value Collector

satanoperca said:


> I don't think it is that black and white.
> If for example sending my child to school in :
> A) Shared Car costs $1.00
> B) Private Car costs $3.00
> Then I will select A.
> 
> But there is always option 3. Tell the child for the betterment of their physical and mental health, ride your bike, you also get the added benefit of freedom.
> 
> I personally, use my car very little and will not be purchasing a new one for many years, riding my bike gives me more benefits at less costs.




I am not saying car pooling won’t exist, Or that kids will stop riding bikes, I am just saying that reduced cost means people are less like to look for cheaper alternatives, not more likely.

especially if the reason people are choosing public transport are the additional non vehicle related costs such as car parking.

there are people that currently use public transport or car pooling just because they want to avoid paying $20+ a day to park the car on top of the regular car costs.

for those people a robo taxi that picks them up at home and delivers them to the door of their office would be very attractive, rather than cramming into the train.


----------



## Lucky777

$TSLA announced stock split

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/08/11/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus

Might decide to buy more.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Lucky777 said:


> $TSLA announced stock split
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/08/11/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus
> 
> Might decide to buy more.




I won't be buying Tesla.

Maybe V moto, I will look at.


----------



## Smurf1976

Value Hunter said:


> High density: Smurf pollution and oil depletion is only one argument for high density living. Even if you remove those arguments it still makes sense for a lot of reasons. Have you even read the Mr. Money Moustache blog posts I linked to? Walkability, reduced commute times, reduced costs for all car related infrastructure such as road construction and repair, traffic police, parking rangers, parking lots, etc.



Go back 20 years and I was in that camp.

In due course though, having spent quite a bit of time speaking with professionals in the transport field, I shifted to a realisation that public transport fits very nicely with an industrial economy but fails in a service economy. It works when you've got 3000 people all working at the mill and all starting and finishing at the same time but it fails when you've got 3000 people all working independently at different locations and times and the mill no longer exists.

The thread's about Tesla not town planning but noting the ongoing pandemic, I'm not at all convinced that we're going to see people piling into big city apartment towers going forward. Not everyone's going to do it but the concept of living in the suburbs isn't dead in my view, there's plenty who live in apartments who've now come to see the idea of a house with a backyard more positively and they won't forget that thought in a hurry.

It might cost more owning a car and so on yes but rarely do consumers pick the cheapest option for anything. iPhone, Mercedes, every 4+ star hotel, David Jones, Myer, every private school, private health, most fashion branded outlets, every cafe, every restaurant, the entire concept of business class travel and so on. They all rationally don't exist at all if we assume price is the determinant but they sure do in practice because consumers don't actually go for the cheapest option. They even sell premium priced cinema tickets these days.

A poor person will pick the cheapest combination of living and travel arrangements. They've no choice really.

Someone with more money will live somewhere they like to live and travel by the most efficient and comfortable method. Within reason it costs what it costs.

The latter are the ones who might buy a Tesla vehicle especially if they get to the point of full autonomy thus removing the need to stuff about finding somewhere to park since the car can do that by itself after the owner has got out at their destination. In terms of convenience and comfort that massively beats any form of shared transport.

Tesla aren't competing against buses or trains. They're at the premium end where the money is. Someone worried about a few $ isn't their target market just as Qantas doesn't market business class travel to mum, dad and the two kids off to the Gold Coast for a week. etc. They're aiming at the middle and upper ends with different products priced accordingly. 

FWIW - I don't own a Tesla but then I tend to shun upmarket things generally by choice. I'm not most people though and there's plenty who will buy an upmarket car that drives itself once they're convinced it's safe, comfortable, reliable and so on.


----------



## Value Hunter

Smurf1976 its not only about cheapest option its about quality of life. Wouldn't you prefer to be able to walk and cycle everywhere (like is common in many European cities) than having to sit in car? I don't even own a car and I try to get around by bicycle as much as it possible. Its a great way to get exercise and often (at least in the areas I cycle) it takes the around the same amount of time as driving due to traffic congestion. Walking and cycling are activities that build a sense of community and enable people to get sunshine and exercise and fresh air (sometimes). Driving is for worker drones. Even if driving a car was hypothetically slightly cheaper than cycling (its obviously not) I would still prefer to cycle. This is aside from the fact who wants to waste hours of their lives commuting every day. Obviously a different town planning model which eliminates the need for long commutes enhances quality of life.

What you are saying about industrial vs. service economy misses the point completely, because you are simply looking at public transport (trains, buses, etc) without even factoring in cyclists and people walking. There are cities in the world where the majority of people cycle and or walk to work.

Also I am not saying everyone has to live in apartments. People can live in houses with backyards but they shouldn't have to commute to the other side of the city to work. Everything they need should be within a reasonable distance of their house. This is something that can be done with the right town planning and has been done in many cities around the world.

And yes although this is a thread about Tesla and not town planning the two are joined at the hip because town planning drastically affects car usage and car sales and we got to think about how town planning and city usage will be in the future when evaluating automotive companies.

Value collector I think we will have to agree to disagree. I think carpooling will take significant market share from people using private robo taxis. Sure the premium market will always exist but it won't be the majority.

I think the self driving car market will become like the airline market where 90%+ of people (the plebs) choose the cheapest option available (economy) and the other 0 - 10% will choose the premium options. There is a reason most airlines have terrible profitability and I expect the self driving car market to end up the same way.


----------



## Smurf1976

Value Hunter said:


> Smurf1976 its not only about cheapest option its about quality of life. Wouldn't you prefer to be able to walk and cycle everywhere (like is common in many European cities) than having to sit in car?






Value Hunter said:


> Also I am not saying everyone has to live in apartments. People can live in houses with backyards but they shouldn't have to commute to the other side of the city to work. Everything they need should be within a reasonable distance of their house. This is something that can be done with the right town planning and has been done in many cities around the world.




Personally I do walk every day either to get from A to B or for exercise so I'm not adverse to the concept. Heck I've even walked from A to B in Los Angeles and that takes some determination..... 

For living though, well the practical reality for many people is the days of a job for life or even a career for life are long gone and with that the days of always working in the same or a nearby location. Far more likely you'll spend your working life spread between the CBD and an assortment of suburbs nowhere near it doing a few completely unrelated jobs.

There are exceptions to that of course, there are some who will always work in the CBD and who have hobbies and interests which are very much based in the city and who rarely leave it. That group arguably has little need for a car, no argument there.

A real life example, I know a couple who bought a house within a few km of where they both worked. Within 12 months one was in a new job and commuting about 30km each way and that's in Hobart, not exactly a large city by any means. Now they work in the CBD, a ~15km trip.

I'm not suggesting that everyone will buy a Tesla or even own any car at all, there are certainly some for whom it makes no sense, but cars as a concept are very much here to stay in my view. At least they are so long as we have a society which functions roughly the way it does today - that of course could change dramatically.


----------



## orr

Lucky777 said:


> $TSLA announced stock split
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/08/11/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus
> 
> Might decide to buy more.




bought more last night... 
The question is now; Are they going to worth $400/ps on the split.
And will they for-fill my expectation of doubling again in the next two years?( almost seems un -ambitious)

Go Berlin Go Austin...

And everywhere I look, nearly all the competition is going no where or backward.
Bezos could buy Ford with his loose change...(or in my view if they don't pull the digit out he can just wait till it's junk) And with some sort of view to the future sort that mess out.


----------



## Lucky777

Yea been up about 20% since I posted that, should’ve topped up. I’ll stick to my guns with the $3k price target(scaled back): $500 end of year!


----------



## orr

So at the close we're at $400/ps for the split...

Rob Maurer who has a long back catalogue of  pod casts relevant to this discussion.. Don't know if he's been linked previously. He's well into the weeds on TLSA's financials and the condition of the competition(spoiler they're not).


----------



## Lucky777

Do you have a link? Thanks


----------



## over9k

So the last peak was 1643 and it dropped to 1374 before taking off again, so around 16%. 

Will we see the same pullback this time? Would it make sense to put a $1700 order in and just see... 

Hmm.


----------



## orr

Lucky...Rob Maurer does a youtube 'tesla daily podcast'

& k  the order you'll be putting in is for US$336... & yes the market 'corrects'; make sure you've got the cash . Best of luck..dyor.


----------



## Pocoyo

Muckman said:


> If I had to choose I think I’d take his
> View attachment 106989


----------



## joeno

These analysts are a joke. Where were the $2500+ estimates a year ago?

When the stock market was going down the estimate is impending doom (just before the recovery). When markets are going up the estimates are exuberant (just before the correction). 

Am i understanding to get a job as a stock analyst - look at recent performance, multiply by 2, and "forecast" that's where the stock is going in the next 12 months. Am i doing it right?


----------



## Pocoyo

2.5k split effect, 1.5k profit at covid, 800 q4 profit & 500k prod plan 2020 announced

Now possible growth >15% after battery day, 10% q3 results, 15% q4 results, then  depending on new gigas/China Y model/ autopilot progress, then semi, roadster, cybertruck production launch


----------



## orr

A more less stock(Drive Train)  Model3 has just taken out multiple categories at The Pikes Peak hill climb event in the US... The fellas at 'KnowYouKnow' have posted a bit of a pull apart on YouTube...
Not the only Peak over the last 48hrs..

Joeno...As to analysts?? Cathy Wood at ARK invest has been all over TSLA for years. But most people can't see where these people are looking.
And it's not just stock analysts. Some clown early in this thread maligned Sandy Munro;Munro a man those organisation is that deep into the entrails of the engineering of what going into Tesla's development they deserves multipule Professorships.

But be warned... 'Electric Cars and utes are out to destroy the Great Aussie W/End' 
That's Question from an upcoming TV Quizz Show "_What Moron Said Tha_t"


----------



## over9k

They're not at the point of doing weekend trips yet, but they will be soon enough. Same as big grunt 3 phase charging stations will be installed in caravan parks everywhere soon enough too. 

Might be a decent business opportunity now I think about it. Hmm. 

I'm buying some NIO tonight in the hopes that nio will be to tesla what alibaba was to amazon.


----------



## Pocoyo

There is another one started last week, but be careful https://electrek.co/2020/04/27/tesla-claim-xpeng-stole-autopilot-source-code/

XPEV NYSE 

$20.50
Today's Change
  -($2.29) -10.05%


----------



## over9k

yeah nikola's had a huge crash since june too.


----------



## Pocoyo

nikola is weird. they need to drop Hydrogen cost from ~$16 to about $3 per kilo and build infrastructure. they just announced a new factory in Arizona, having third party IVECO to produce 10k Nikola Tre (battery not hydrogen) trucks late 2021 for Europe market. In Arizona plant first phase also be only battery, hydrogen hopefully in 2023..

EU market best case in the next 2-3 years sharing profit with IVECO

US market will be after Arizona factory completion and  Nikola Tre production ramp, hopefully next year (haha)

and here we have Austin vs Arizona plants progress, they even started same time around end Jul. Tesla is already smashing it and I can't find any updates from Arizona

i think it could be well shorted until good news from Europe,  or maybe till we see Arizona flyovers with some real work done

but then again, even plant starts production how they expect to win tesla semi with already 2 years streets testing and own battery cell production.  Nikola Tre never quite tested, where they secure batteries and what cost? I cant find this info. The only nkla hope its 5 times hydrogen cost reduction and decent truck in somewhere 2023.


----------



## over9k

Easier to just dump your money into tesla IMO. Tesla is *years* ahead of the competition.


----------



## Pocoyo

could be an opportunity

Recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission have revealed that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will be selling up to $5 billion in stock. According to the SEC filings, which were posted on Tuesday, the additional shares will be sold “from time to time” and “at-the-market” prices. 

Several financial institutions are involved in Tesla’s initiative. Among these are Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, SG Americas Securities, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and BNP Paribas Securities Corp.

As noted by the company, proceeds from the $5 billion TSLA offering will be used to strengthen its already-formidable balance sheet. The proceeds, if any, could be utilized by the electric car maker for projects such as Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas, both of which are being constructed at a seemingly record pace.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Tesla Battery Day is scheduled for September 22nd. Announcements on increased energy output, price and range advantage are expected as well as 







> .... "a transformation in the core structural design of a vehicle…its quite a big thing” says Elon Musk. He has also teased it will “… blow your mind. It blows my mind, and I know it! "


----------



## orr

A very recent post appears to have been deleted; if it reappears all the better.
I was on my way responding to the inferences to battery advancement in the attached Musk quote. 
Tesla's shift from 1865 cells to 2170's gave power increases and cost reductions on the 50% volume increase on those cells. If The leaked images of the new cell design prove to be accurate the volume increases are in the magnitude of 9x that of the 2170's. The effect this has on both power output and cost reduction to coinside with the dry electrode process will have, I expect, a material effect on Tesla's already substantial value.... I'm bet on it, so let's see.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Dona Ferentes said:


> Tesla Battery Day is scheduled for September 22nd. Announcements on increased energy output, price and range advantage are expected as well as



BD come and gone. there is a three hour Youtube presentation if interested; a quarter of a million viewed (some of) Battery Day live online




> _"Building an affordable electric car has always been our dream from  the beginning of the company", Musk told an online audience of more than  270,000._



_However, Musk  described a new generation of electric vehicle batteries that will be  more powerful, longer lasting and half as expensive than the company's  current cells . The new Tesla larger cylindrical cells, called 4680, will provide five times more  energy, six times more power and 16 per cent greater driving range,  Musk said, adding that full production is *about three years away.*



			"We  do not have an affordable car. That's something we will have in the  future. But we've got to get the cost of batteries down", Musk said.
		
Click to expand...


To  help reduce cost, Musk said Tesla planned to recycle battery cells at  its Nevada gigafactory, while reducing cobalt, one of the most  expensive battery materials, to virtually zero. It also plans to make  its own battery cells at several highly automated factories around the  world.

Tesla will produce the new battery cells initially on a new  assembly line near its vehicle plant in Fremont, California, with  planned output reaching 10 gigawatt hours a year by the end of next  year. Tesla and partner Panasonic now have production capacity of about  35 gWh at the Nevada battery *gigafactory*.

Tesla aims to rapidly  ramp up battery production over the next few years, to 3 terawatt hours a   year, or 3000 gigawatt hours; .... roughly 85 times greater than the   capacity of the Nevada plant. Tesla plans to produce the  new cells via a highly automated, continuous motion assembly process,  according to Drew Baglino, Tesla senior vice president of powertrain and  energy engineering.

Musk acknowledged that *Tesla does not have its new battery design and manufacturing process fully complete*._


----------



## Userman

*Ideanomics MEG Finalizing Multiple EV Taxi Orders

Tesla,* BYD, Chery, Dong Feng Nissan, Kia, and Geely among the selected manufacturers









						Ideanomics MEG Finalizing Multiple EV Taxi Orders
					

Ideanomics (NASDAQ: IDEX) ("Ideanomics" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, Mobile Energy Global (MEG) has selected several manufacturers to fulfill its EV taxi sales...




					investors.ideanomics.com


----------



## orr

Rumoured Tesla Build in India?
It's been a while since I was on the ground over there. Anybody have some up to date construction data?


----------



## Value Collector

I finally bit the Bullet and bought some Tesla stock, I should have bought in a long time ago, but it’s taken me a while to fully understand this company.

I know it seems expensive at the moment, But for a long term hold I think this will work out well, the company is growing on a number of verticals with huge potential.


----------



## fiftyeight

Value Collector said:


> I finally bit the Bullet and bought some Tesla stock, I should have bought in a long time ago, but it’s taken me a while to fully understand this company.
> 
> I know it seems expensive at the moment, But for a long term hold I think this will work out well, the company is growing on a number of verticals with huge potential.




How does a value collector audit Tesla's books?

Listening to TC Charts Podcast has actually made more interested in Tesla. Yeah Elon has done some questionable things, but at the moment the games have all been for to the gain of Tesla. 

Weather you think he is a crook or not does not matter if he gets away with it AND puts the money back in to Tesla. Solar City pokes some holes in this theory though.

Fingers crossed I have my Cyber Truck in about 4 - 5 years when we plan to do our trip around OZ with the kids


----------



## Value Collector

fiftyeight said:


> How does a value collector audit Tesla's books?




Well, if it was just based on Tesla as it stands today, it’s over valued.

But I made some estimates based on what the production capacity will be once all the factories currently in production / ramp up / construction will be, and then what I believe their profit margin on those vehicles will be, and I think once all those factories have ramped up, Tesla will be pretty fairly valued.

then there is the solar roof business, stationary home and grid batteries, Insurance business and the future opportunities for Robo taxis, software and different vehicles like buses etc.

I think at this stage anyone that thinks Elon is a crook or that he isn’t a genius is just a cynical person.

to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if in 10 years Tesla was worth $2 Trillion market cap, and it’s currently a bit over $400 billion, you it may be a 5 bagger in 10 years, so I am happy to hold it long term.


----------



## fiftyeight

Value Collector said:


> Well, if it was just based on Tesla as it stands today, it’s over valued.
> 
> But I made some estimates based on what the production capacity will be once all the factories currently in production / ramp up / construction will be, and then what I believe their profit margin on those vehicles will be, and I think once all those factories have ramped up, Tesla will be pretty fairly valued.
> 
> then there is the solar roof business, stationary home and grid batteries, Insurance business and the future opportunities for Robo taxis, software and different vehicles like buses etc.
> 
> I think at this stage anyone that thinks Elon is a crook or that he isn’t a genius is just a cynical person.
> 
> to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if in 10 years Tesla was worth $2 Trillion market cap, and it’s currently a bit over $400 billion, you it may be a 5 bagger in 10 years, so I am happy to hold it long term.




Agree on all of the above.

As you have been fan of the product for a while, what has changed, why now?


----------



## Value Collector

fiftyeight said:


> Agree on all of the above.
> 
> As you have been fan of the product for a while, what has changed, why now?



When I first started looking at them a couple of years back, I thought they were over valued and there was to much risk.

I mean they were a producer of a luxury car and had plans to launch the model 3, but it wasn’t clear that they were going to be able to get the model 3 plant ramped up before they ran out of money, and it also wasn’t obvious how successful the model 3 was going to be.

Also, maybe because of my lack of imagination, I couldn’t see the big picture of how it all fit together and I didn’t understand their pathway to value generation.

It’s a different story now though, they have the Fremont factory pumping, Shanghai is ramping up, and ground is broken on two other plants.

Its a bit like when you are watching movie, and you don’t quite understand the story, but then clicks in your brain, and the plot becomes clears and you understand all the subtle hints and sub plots that have been going on, over the last 3 months or so I just finally started to get the Tesla story at a deep level, and felt comfortable investing.

but then the price became high, which generally puts me off, but when I spent some more time working on estimates as I described above, I started to feel confident that this thing might be the next Apple, and be worth $2 Trillion plus in the future.

so although I regret not buying sooner, I think there is still a lot of value generation happening, and am happy to hold from here on out.


----------



## orr

In the last week Rob Maurers Tesla Daily Podcast has had two long form interveiws with well credentialed analists. At the more Tech end also Jordon over at the Limiting Factors well researched pull apart on dry electolyte deposition was brillant at pulling back the curtian...
not TSLA related atm.... Sandy's 'What's in the Box' for it's heads up to the CSIRO...


----------



## joeno

__





						Cost of electricity by source - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Was surprised how cheap it is to generate 1kwh through Solar and Wind. WOnder if there's any solar companies that are sound but haven't been ramped up by the hype in the last 6 months.


----------



## Value Collector

So, what does a romantic man like me get his wife for her birthday, A voucher for Tesla stock of course, Hahaha

(I did get her some conventional presents too, I am not completely insane, yet)

The drawing is my best effort of Elon standing on the cyber truck, from the Jay Leno people of Tesla joke, she loved the gift, I think I married the right girl.


----------



## Lucky777

Haha Elon doesn’t have a mullet!


----------



## orr

Anybody else watching the _beta_ self driving clips up on YouTube??


----------



## Value Collector

orr said:


> Anybody else watching the _beta_ self driving clips up on YouTube??




Yeah, I can't wait till the update comes through on my car, I have the car for a bit over a year now, and with every update the self driving features just keep getting better and better, so I am really looking for to this next update, apparently its the biggest update yet.


----------



## orr

Collector, mid last week(can't remeber which day) Rob Maurer 'Tesla Daily' highlighted the tie up in the UK between Octopus Energy and Tesla to make availalbe a Solar feed-in/supply deal far more advantageous than any of the competion. This is also of interest to also to the "Future of Energy and Storage" thread....
Earlier this year Origin Energy, here, announced their association with Octopus UK. By coincidence I sold Origin 12+ months ago to buy Tesla, I'm in no hurry to Buy any Origin now or be one of their customers again. That said, the importance here though  encompasses Tesla's 'AutoBidder' and a geographically diversified VPP. This is TSLA's software that utilises the capital of others to enrich them while shoveling money onto Tesla's bottom line. 
No doubt the the cogs are grinding at Origin now, but it's a company that's failed to '_mesh the gears_' on more than the odd occasion in the past.
I look forward with great despair my cybertruk(range on the Tri-motor rumoured to be out to 560miles) _ruining my weekend_. 
Ohh for those past '_joys' _ petrol sniffing, that first oil change on the second-hand falcon to find the stripped sump-plug hole... where are all the lost petrol caps of yesteryear????


----------



## Value Collector

Robo taxi network here we come


----------



## orr

The upcoming entry to the S&P ? How hard is the squeeze going to be for all the funds and those tracking to get set? by the 2nd and 3rd week of December ... As I post US$455 looks very reasonable to me.    dyor....


----------



## orr

General Motors doesn't have a dedicated thread; GM stock has had a recent run though and reports are that the  current CEO, Mary Barra has sold off half her stock in the comany trousering circa US$43mill...A vote of confedence in the future of the company???
Quite a good move Ms Mary...my view.
Harbinger '_Trickle to a flood_' for the legacy Big Auto's...

This as GM announces that by 2025 %40 of there R&D will be for Battery electric/autonomous; 40%... Expect further selling by Ms Mary, in short order...

Just keeping an eye on the competion, such that it is...


----------



## noirua

Tesla price chart: 
	

			http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l


----------



## orr

For those with an interest in the Tech; Dave Lee did a long chat with James Douma (3hrs) a week or so back. Enter their names into YouTube it'll come up...
There's no easy way to condence what Mr Douma(who has a serious CV) has to offer, it's for the nerds though... At lenght on FSD, DOJO, Nueral Net and Machine learning...
There is a 1hr chat that sits in the middle of the bigger. But for a whole lot more do the 3. Right at the end he brings out the AlfaFold connection and your head explodes.

to quote Ian Dury '_Ain't half been some clever geeza's_'


----------



## noirua

Tesla to raise another $5bn by selling shares (msn.com) 

Tesla is to raise up to $5bn selling new shares, as the electric carmaker takes advantage of an almost 900% surge in its share price over the last 12 months.


----------



## noirua

Tesla short seller is one casualty as funds lose millions on blue-chip bets
					

Investors taking short positions in Footsie companies suffered losses of £1.1bn last month



					www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk


----------



## ducati916

Some facts re. TSLA

*Here are ten facts that put help put Tesla’s rise into context and perspective.*


When Tesla went public in 2010, it was the first U.S. car company to IPO on the stock market since Ford offered stock to investors in 1956. Fast forward to today, when Tesla is added to the S&P 500, at least based where it trades today, it would come in as the sixth largest stock in the index. No stock has ever come in with that high of a weight.



It will potentially carry a higher weight than Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has a total return of 2,744,062% since its founding in 1965. Berkshire has almost ten times the revenue Tesla has.



It would be a larger weight than Wal-Mart, which employs more than 2.2 million people globally.



If Verizon Wireless was to double its current size, Tesla would still be bigger from a market cap perspective.



Tesla’s increase in market value this year alone, from roughly $75B at the end of 2019 to approximately $550B today (so an increase of $475B) is more than if you merged Home Depot, the leading U.S. home improvement company, with Unilever, the consumer goods juggernaut with over 400 brands.



Sweden, as a country, produced $530B in GDP for 2019. Tesla’s market cap of $550B is $20B higher than the entire output of the Scandinavian nation.



According to this WSJ article, the addition of Tesla is expected “to put more than $100 billion into motion.”



Over the past 10 years, Tesla’s stock is up over 10,000% so it is getting added to the index after an incredible run.



Since going public, Tesla’s stock has an annual standard deviation of over 60% compared to the S&P 500’s 13.2%. If that volatility continues, it could increase the volatility of the index going forward.



The company is expected to produce 500,000 cars in 2020. At its current valuation it’s approximately being valued at $1,100,000 per car produced. 
None of this is meant as an evaluation of Tesla’s future prospects. If the company delivers in the promise that its bulls think it has, it could end up being a great investment for the index going forward. If the bears are right, it could significantly hurt the S&P 500’s returns.

But either way, this is in many ways an event that is unlike anything many of us have seen in our investing lifetimes, so it is interesting to look at its implications.  Tesla’s market valuation is now on par with other giant companies. Only time will tell if can remain one of the world’s most valued companies, but either way, it will certainly be interesting to watch.






I get why so many want to short this. The only way to do it is via PUTS, at least then if you are wrong your losses are capped at 100% of the premium paid.

The thing is, the inclusion into the S&P 500 was made in Nov. Since that time TSLA has risen +/- 50%. There was speculation back in March +/- that it would be included (correctly) and since then it has risen +/- 700%

jog on
duc


----------



## orr

The reported one hit price reduction of what will be Teslas biggest selling unit the ModelY (Shanghi) gives an indication of there advancements in production methodology in real figures( all be it massaged from an overpriced original) but enough to solicit 100k orders on the day of announcement. Looks like the Giga Casting press is going to do for mass Auto manufacture what the mechanical slicer did for bread.
Over all 2020 production 500k vehical units ....(up from 2019; 360k)...
Can't enter 2021 stock tipping, all mine(conservative) are non-ASX listed( _TSLA $703(us) ARKK $124(us) TEAM $234(us) CAT $182(us)....) _at time of post.


----------



## noirua

SHANGHAI -- Chinese electric-vehicle startup NIO Inc. unveiled its fourth production model Saturday, as it prepares to face the challenge of Tesla Inc.'s locally built Model Y crossover, which launches in China in the coming weeks.


----------



## over9k

Might be worth just sticking to the electric car thread?


----------



## Value Collector

noirua said:


> SHANGHAI -- Chinese electric-vehicle startup NIO Inc. unveiled its fourth production model Saturday, as it prepares to face the challenge of Tesla Inc.'s locally built Model Y crossover, which launches in China in the coming weeks.



These electric car companies that are going to pop up over the next 10 years are not going to take market share off Tesla, they will take market share away from ICE cars.

think of it like the smart phone business, Apple continued to grow its Phone business year after year until the non smart phone business was dead, even though others copied them, the copy cats just increased the rate of decline in the non smart phones.


----------



## orr

Dylon Lumas, today,  on his  'Electrified' YouTube, has some, condensed audio of Ron Barron's thoughts on TSLA's medium/long  outlook on automotive, battery, energy and tech from an interview done a couple of days back. Ron runs about 7mins of 10min video.
For those interested search YouTube  'Ron Barron Tesla Stock'


----------



## noirua

The justification of Tesla’s share price - The Bull
					

Elon Musk is now the world’s richest person, edging out previous title holder Amazon’s Jeff Bezos. His rocketing fortune is due to the booming share price of Tesla, the maker of electric vehicles and clean energy technologies. In the past week Tesla’s share price surpassed US$880, ten times its...




					thebull.com.au


----------



## noirua

Ford takes fight to Tesla with US$29bn invest into electric and autonomous vehicles
					

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) laid out aggressive investment plans as it looks to battle Tesla in the electric and autonomous vehicles sector....



					www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk


----------



## Value Collector

noirua said:


> Ford takes fight to Tesla with US$29bn invest into electric and autonomous vehicles
> 
> 
> Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) laid out aggressive investment plans as it looks to battle Tesla in the electric and autonomous vehicles sector....
> 
> 
> 
> www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk



When ford said this 

“If EVs continue to quickly gain favor, especially with commercial customers, we want to be clear that we will not cede ground to anyone,” John Lawler, Ford chief financial officer said on a call following the Q4 results.

It's like Nokia mobile phones say something like "Yeah, if touch screen smart phone things that apple are making take off, we will not cede ground to anyone"

If they are waiting to see whether Ev's continue to gain favour, they have already ceded so much ground to Tesla that they probably will never catch up, I mean the only thing slowing Tesla down is building battery production fast enough, now if ford is not already developing battery factories and working on their self driving software, how are they ever going to catch up???


----------



## Dona Ferentes

(US$3000, by the way)


----------



## The Triangle

Value Collector said:


> When ford said this
> 
> “If EVs continue to quickly gain favor, especially with commercial customers, we want to be clear that we will not cede ground to anyone,” John Lawler, Ford chief financial officer said on a call following the Q4 results.
> 
> It's like Nokia mobile phones say something like "Yeah, if touch screen smart phone things that apple are making take off, we will not cede ground to anyone"
> 
> If they are waiting to see whether Ev's continue to gain favour, they have already ceded so much ground to Tesla that they probably will never catch up, I mean the only thing slowing Tesla down is building battery production fast enough, now if ford is not already developing battery factories and working on their self driving software, how are they ever going to catch up???



Still waiting on this bubble to burst.    Until then - Why doesn't Tesla just raise a hundred billion or so at a huge discount?  They would be completely protected against future problems.    

Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook - they all more or less required people to use the same platforms to be able to communicate.  If you have an Iphone, and I have an Iphone - it makes things much easier for us.  Messenger, same apps,  etc.  Take a ford badge and put it on a tesla and most people would not know the difference.


----------



## Value Collector

The Triangle said:


> Still waiting on this bubble to burst.    Until then - Why doesn't Tesla just raise a hundred billion or so at a huge discount?  They would be completely protected against future problems.
> 
> Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook - they all more or less required people to use the same platforms to be able to communicate.  If you have an Iphone, and I have an Iphone - it makes things much easier for us.  Messenger, same apps,  etc.  Take a ford badge and put it on a tesla and most people would not know the difference.



I don’t think Tesla needs any more financing, they are producing cashflow from operations, and have about $5 Billion is additional funding already lined up to continue building the factories they have in progress.

If you put a Ford badge on a Tesla, people would say “Holy sheet this is the best Ford I have ever driven, I want one of these”.

I guess most people wouldn’t be able to identify an iPhone from a Samsung, that is until the tried to use it.


----------



## noirua

Tesla’s move in New Caledonia highlights just how strategic big nickel assets are likely to become
					

It may be that it requires a man of the stature of Elon Musk to sort out some of the mining industry’s most intractable woes. Given his...



					www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk


----------



## basilio

A bit of boasting from Tesla.









Cars​ 
Tesla Model S Plaid Sets A New 1/4 Mile Record: 9.23 Seconds​ 









By
Johnna Crider 


Published
 3 hours ago                                                    



Tesla’s Model S Plaid recently set a new record for the fastest quarter-mile time of any production car, reports _Drive Tesla Canada_. The official record time was set on May 11, 2021, at the Autoclub Famoso Raceway in Bakersfield — four hours south of Tesla’s Fremont factory. The article noted that an attendee at the even told them that the Midnight Silver Model S Plaid set an official time of 9.23 seconds with a trap speed of 152.16 miles per hour.
This beat the previous record of 9.4 seconds that was held by the Bugatti Chiron Sport, which, at a base price of $3,260,000, is a bit pricier than the Tesla Model S Plaid, which starts at a measly (in comparison) $119,990. The time set by the Tesla is also almost a full half-second quicker than the second fastest car, the Porsche 918 Spyder.








						Tesla Model S Plaid Sets A New 1/4 Mile Record: 9.23 Seconds
					

Tesla's Model S Plaid recently set a new record for the fastest quarter-mile time of any production car, reports Drive Tesla Canada. The official record time was set on May 11, 2021, at the Autoclub




					cleantechnica.com


----------



## noirua

On May 7, the day before Musk made his appearance on _SNL_, Tesla stock was sitting at $669. In the week since, the stock has declined 14% to sit around $573. According to Forbes estimates, this sudden drop has seen Musk’s $166-billion net worth plunge by $20 billion down to around $145.5 billion.
URL unfurl="true"]https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-loses-20b-since-snl-as-michael-saylor-comes-out-firing[/URL]


----------



## Value Collector

basilio said:


> A bit of boasting from Tesla.
> 
> 
> View attachment 124280
> 
> 
> 
> Cars​
> Tesla Model S Plaid Sets A New 1/4 Mile Record: 9.23 Seconds​
> 
> 
> View attachment 124281
> 
> 
> 
> 
> By
> Johnna Crider
> 
> 
> Published
> 3 hours ago
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla’s Model S Plaid recently set a new record for the fastest quarter-mile time of any production car, reports _Drive Tesla Canada_. The official record time was set on May 11, 2021, at the Autoclub Famoso Raceway in Bakersfield — four hours south of Tesla’s Fremont factory. The article noted that an attendee at the even told them that the Midnight Silver Model S Plaid set an official time of 9.23 seconds with a trap speed of 152.16 miles per hour.
> This beat the previous record of 9.4 seconds that was held by the Bugatti Chiron Sport, which, at a base price of $3,260,000, is a bit pricier than the Tesla Model S Plaid, which starts at a measly (in comparison) $119,990. The time set by the Tesla is also almost a full half-second quicker than the second fastest car, the Porsche 918 Spyder.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla Model S Plaid Sets A New 1/4 Mile Record: 9.23 Seconds
> 
> 
> Tesla's Model S Plaid recently set a new record for the fastest quarter-mile time of any production car, reports Drive Tesla Canada. The official record time was set on May 11, 2021, at the Autoclub
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cleantechnica.com



I already have a piggy bank building up for this one, my wife wants our next car to be a model Y though.


----------



## Dark1975

That's a smart bet , From the man that picked the housing bubble..
I hope ellon has alot of doge coin in his piggy bank..lol


----------



## greggles

Dark1975 said:


> That's a smart bet , From the man that picked the housing bubble..
> I hope ellon has alot of doge coin in his piggy bank..lol




I think it's a good call. Tesla is one of the most bloated stocks in a very bloated market with a PE Ratio of 576.83. I can't see how this is sustainable.


----------



## cutz

Dark1975 said:


> That's a smart bet , From the man that picked the housing bubble..
> I hope ellon has alot of doge coin in his piggy bank..lol




Interesting article but the reporters forgot to mention that the long put position doesn't become 530 million short delta dollars until they are deep in the money, ( other factors also involved but can save it for the options threads )

The long put strike price and  expiration haven't been revealed and apparently the fund has also sold lower strike puts  at a higher implied vol so effectively the short delta dollar on the position may be many times smaller than what is implied in the screenshot.


----------



## Value Collector

cutz said:


> Interesting article but the reporters forgot to mention that the long put position doesn't become 530 million short delta dollars until they are deep in the money, ( other factors also involved but can save it for the options threads )
> 
> The long put strike price and  expiration haven't been revealed and apparently the fund has also sold lower strike puts  at a higher implied vol so effectively the short delta dollar on the position may be many times smaller than what is implied in the screenshot.



Yep, Also he has been short Tesla since it was less than $400, I bought my Tesla shares at around $420 and it had already been in the News that Burry had a large short position against it.

I think he must be sweating on that position now, he would already be carrying large losses on it.


----------



## cutz

Value Collector said:


> Yep, Also he has been short Tesla since it was less than $400, I bought my Tesla shares at around $420 and it had already been in the News that Burry had a large short position against it.
> 
> I think he must be sweating on that position now, he would already be carrying large losses on it.



Hi,

That's cool but the point I was trying to make was that the headline short position may have been grossly overstated.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Local makes good:

_One of the few employees on the AFR Rich List  and current worth of $688_M

Robyn Denholm is a rare employee, as opposed to business owner, to make the Rich List.

She got her first taste of high finance handling the accounts at her parents' service station in Milperra, a western Sydney suburb. Accountancy qualifications followed before stints at Arthur Andersen, Toyota Australia and American IT giants Sun Microsystems and Juniper Networks, which brought her to the attention of the board of an up-and-coming electric car maker called Tesla.

Denholm was tapped to become a non-executive director at Elon Musk's baby in 2014, while simultaneously running operations at Telstra.

She then replaced Musk as Tesla's chairman in 2018, earning stock options along the way which have soared as Tesla became a market darling.


----------



## basilio

This analysis of the  big step changes in production and costs of the Model Y was an eye opener. 

Certainly highlights how far ahead Tesla is with electric cars compared to other carmakers. - and seemingly pulling away.


----------



## orr

The following gives a depth of understanding on pure  Vision based FSD...


----------



## stephen1968

basilio said:


> That is a detailed analysis of why Ark thinks Tesla could be expected to reach $7000.US in 5 years.
> Interestingly the Bull case scenario is $15k !
> 
> View attachment 106903



Very interesting read! still holding my shares from 2017! Have to keep reminding myself to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful... this has restored some confidence.


----------



## Gunnerguy

stephen1968 said:


> Very interesting read! still holding my shares from 2017! Have to keep reminding myself to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful... this has restored some confidence.



Do(es) the Black Sean event(s) include issues developing in China either specific to Tesla, Elon, or US trade/geopolitics ?
I think a 1% chance to be rather low. I’d prefer a 1chance if that within the next 2-3 years.

Gunnerguy


----------



## orr

Quarterly production rates  now at above 200k units/ with minimal "S" and "X" due to line re-vamp...
Berlin and Austin to start contribution in two qrt's from now,.CyberTruck pre-orders reported at >1.1million 
And that's the Auto arm of the business...


----------



## JohnDe

I originally thought Tesla was a Phoenix, I watched for 3 years with disbelief at how high the price climbed and all the groups hanging one. The more I watched the more I was drawn in, and then I did it, purchased TSLA shares about 2 years ago. Last month I took delivery of a M3 LR, an awesome car which has brought back my childhood dreams of a future with tech and space travel. 

Have I become a groupie? 

My fear is that I have become too emotional and can only see the positives, along with most other commentators and groupies, and my decisions are blurring. Do I purchase more, do I see, do I sit. 

No other share that I own has or is causes me such conflict, as Tesla does.

The Tesla share price predictions do not make sense, even if Tesla sell the number of cars predicted it still will not earn the required revenue to make those US$3000+ per share a sensible purchase. 

Toyota SP at US$89 comes with a dividend, the last at $4.36. Their P/E ratio is 11.94

Predictions and shares go hand in hand, usually hey don't catch on with too many in the general public. We have seen what happens when they do - dot-com bubble.


Tesla Price/Earnings Ratio2020 Actual1005.282021 Estimates246.512022 Estimates126.42023 Estimates116.55


The predictions for Tesla look good and I am gambling that they are right, as if they are a penny stock.

If Tesla is anything like their car, we will see beauty and magnificence with the occasional pimple.


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> I originally thought Tesla was a Phoenix, I watched for 3 years with disbelief at how high the price climbed and all the groups hanging one. The more I watched the more I was drawn in, and then I did it, purchased TSLA shares about 2 years ago. Last month I took delivery of a M3 LR, an awesome car which has brought back my childhood dreams of a future with tech and space travel.
> 
> Have I become a groupie?
> 
> My fear is that I have become too emotional and can only see the positives, along with most other commentators and groupies, and my decisions are blurring. Do I purchase more, do I see, do I sit.
> 
> No other share that I own has or is causes me such conflict, as Tesla does.
> 
> The Tesla share price predictions do not make sense, even if Tesla sell the number of cars predicted it still will not earn the required revenue to make those US$3000+ per share a sensible purchase.
> 
> Toyota SP at US$89 comes with a dividend, the last at $4.36. Their P/E ratio is 11.94
> 
> Predictions and shares go hand in hand, usually hey don't catch on with too many in the general public. We have seen what happens when they do - dot-com bubble.
> 
> 
> Tesla Price/Earnings Ratio2020 Actual1005.282021 Estimates246.512022 Estimates126.42023 Estimates116.55
> 
> 
> The predictions for Tesla look good and I am gambling that they are right, as if they are a penny stock.
> 
> If Tesla is anything like their car, we will see beauty and magnificence with the occasional pimple.



I guess it all depends on what proportion of your total investment capital is sitting in TSLA stock, I am personally holding TSLA as a 10 year hold minimum, but it only makes up about 1% of my total investment capital, so I am not worried about fluctuations over the next 2 -3 years etc.

If I were over 50% TSLA, and I was sitting on a huge gain I would probably look at taking some profit out.

You are right it is over valued based on what it is today, but it is under valued based on what it could be 10 years from now, but there is both market risk in the shorter and business risk in the long term.


----------



## noirua

Weaker technical forecast for Tesla as stock downgraded to Buy Candidate.
					

Tesla




					stockinvest.us
				



On August 12, 2021 "UBS Group" gave "$660.00 - $725.00" rating for TSLA. The price target was changed from $705.70 to 0.3%.
Chart live - https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^TSLA&t=37&p=9&dm=0&vol=0&width=344&height=199&min_pre=0&min_after=0


----------



## orr

TOP's  ... Peta'FLOPS... and then Xa'FLOPS

Where do you begin if the DOJO has that as compute as a training unit???

In a hubristic  steam of conciousness moment about an hour into the conversation between Dave Lee and James Douma, James says it all... but the more thought you put into it ... like 'faaark'   

As noted 'Bezos is basically a grocer'


----------



## JohnDe

An interesting read - http://www.envisionreports.com/tsla...86JsZ_AaakHghu0nIfa3m-Pwur2yTUpZSM_s-FgSGXUY4


----------



## mullokintyre

Much to the surprise of many (including me), tesla has defied all the global supply chain worries and managed to deliver a record number of vehicles in the September quarter.
From todays OZ


> The Silicon Valley electric-vehicle maker delivered 241,300 vehicles to customers in the three months ending in September, it said Saturday, up from 139,593 vehicles during the same period last year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast Tesla would deliver roughly 227,000 vehicles in the quarter.
> 
> The result positions Tesla to easily achieve its full-year goal of increasing deliveries by more than 50 per cent over last year’s total of nearly half a million vehicles. The company has put a total of roughly 627,000 vehicles in customer hands through the first nine months of the year.
> That growth comes despite supply-chain disruptions that have constrained vehicle production across the global auto industry, leaving buyers with fewer options and denting sales.
> 
> The continuing semiconductor shortage is likely to cost the global auto industry $US210m ($A289m) in lost revenues this year, consulting firm AlixPartners said. In the US, the pace of auto sales was expected to fall in September to an annualised rate of 12.4 million vehicles, the lowest rate since May 2020, according to Wards Intelligence.
> 
> Tesla chief executive Elon Musk nodded to those headwinds in a note to employees last month, in which he said the company worked around shortages by building cars with missing parts that needed to be added later, according to a person familiar with the matter.
> 
> Tesla delivered a combined 232,025 Model 3 sedans and Model Y compact sport-utility vehicles in the third quarter, up from 124,318 of those models a year earlier. It was the first full quarter since Tesla introduced an upgraded version of its Model S luxury sedan, dubbed the Plaid.
> 
> The company handed over 9,275 of its higher-end models: Model S sedans and Model X sport-utility vehicles. Tesla delivered a total of 15,275 Model S and Model X vehicles during last year’s third quarter.
> 
> As of Friday, analysts surveyed by FactSet expected Tesla to report third-quarter profits of around $US1.1bn on revenue of more than $US13bn. That is up from a $US331m profit on $US8.8bn in revenue during the year-prior period.



There might be questions about the  delivering of cars  with components missing due to supply issues, but its still an impressive result.
I not there was no deliveries of the Cyber truck.
Mick


----------



## orr

The last couple of weeks have contained a series of compounding matters of interest;
*growth stats
*The Berlin 'walk though'
*Insurance approval in Texas
*a few re-ratings from investment houses
*Stock on a roll
being but a few.....

But in the last day or so the news from VW, which is well condensed into five or so minutes by Rob Maurer ((Tesla Daily(19/10)) in his youtube, lays bear the future for legacy Auto. VW managment are sitting on their hands and they're one of the fastest movers in the bunch incumbents...

Any Considered criticism would be appreciated...


----------



## frugal.rock

"(Reuters) - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc surpassed $1 trillion in market value on Monday after landing its biggest-ever order from rental car company Hertz, a deal that reinforced the electric car leader's ambitions to top the entire auto industry in sales over the next decade."


----------



## waterbottle

Trillion dollar market cap..... Insane....


----------



## orr

On public responce and Uber's reaction Hertz doubles down on their purchace, at a non discount,  full retail, to a percieved demand of 200k Model'3...
A week is a long time in the new world of best in class EV's..... try not to let'm ruin your weekend.

Might be some food for thought with regard to possibilities in the soon upon us 'Coal dust-belt' areas of the australien economy.


----------



## orr

At these levels at this point in time ??? ........seriously thinking about trimming....

good luck to all holders...

But; this current price was something in the mid term future of my expectations....

Considered critism ...etc etc.


----------



## sptrawler

Interesting article on Bloomberg, apparently according to the article, there is no contract signed yet with Hertz.



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## basilio

There have been a number of videos analysing the Battery Mega Pack industry that Tesla is developing.  If you remember Tesla built a 100 MW battery pack in 100 days for South Australia. It has proven an outstanding financial as well as engineering success.  This video analyses the improvements Tesla has made since that development and the profits on the deal. Imressive.


----------



## noirua

Musk asks Twitter followers whether he should sell 10% of Tesla stock
					

-Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk on Saturday asked his 62.5 million followers on Twitter in a poll if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock....



					www.marketscreener.com


----------



## JohnDe

noirua said:


> Musk asks Twitter followers whether he should sell 10% of Tesla stock
> 
> 
> -Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk on Saturday asked his 62.5 million followers on Twitter in a poll if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock....
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketscreener.com




It looks like that Elon will be selling 10% of his shares - https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitte...sk-selling-10-of-his-tesla-shares-11636312972


----------



## JohnDe

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk should sell about 10 percent of his Tesla stock, according to 57.9 percent of people who voted on his Twitter poll asking users of the social media network whether he should offload the stake.

The world’s richest person tweeted on Saturday that he would offload 10 percent of his stock if users approved the proposal in a poll."  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/7/elon-musk-tweets-to-ask-if-he-should-sell-some-tesla-stock

There was rumour that that TSLA could be readying for another share split very soon. Looks like that will be put on hold.


----------



## basilio

Ok so Elon Musk will sell 10% of his shares at $1000 plus.
But in  earlier this year in fact he  was  buying another 8.4 million shares at $70 each.

Elon Musk qualifies for $14 billion options payout after Tesla quarterly report​Key points:​
Mr Musk receives no salary at Tesla, and his pay package requires Tesla's market capitalisation and financial growth to hit a series of rising targets
He now has the option to buy 8.4 million Tesla shares at $US70 each ($89), a discount of more than 90 per cent from their current price
In its quarterly report after the bell, Tesla said it incurred an expense of $US299 million ($371 million) related to Musk's pay package









						Tesla's Elon Musk qualifies for $14 billion options payout
					

Tesla's quarterly report hits targets qualifying chief executive Elon Musk for two options payouts worth a combined $US11 billion ($14.1 billion).




					www.abc.net.au
				












						Elon Musk, Up $25 Billion In A Day, Is Richer Than Any Billionaire Ever
					

Musk is right now worth more than any billionaire Forbes has ever tracked.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## JohnDe

Here you go, an interesting point


----------



## basilio

Some really amazing financial figures around Tesla.

Consider for example the deal Elon obtained to take share options in lieu of a salary . These options were carefully calculated on how successful the company was in terms of share valuation. Business Insider did a story on this process in Jan 2020.

At that stage they calculated how much Elon would make if the share reached the levels set by the remuneration committee.












In January 2020 Tesla reached the 100Billion market cap.

*In October 2021 Tesla's cap is 1.21 Trillion almost double the highest level of the proposed tranche deals and a 12 fold increase in less than 2 years.*

*



*


----------



## JohnDe

I was first a Tesla sceptic, I then cautiously dipped my tow in the TSLA market about 18 months ago and have kept cautiously topping up on the lows. 
My views on the company have drastically change, I believe that it is an amazing company, I even purchased a M3LR. However, I am still cautious, as everyone should be.
A meteoric rise can easily turn into a fall, but I do doubt the possibility as TESLA finish building the factories and the realisation of the death of ICE vehicles is realised. 

My biggest fear is the big car companies - Toyota, VW, Ford getting together to supercharge production and sale of a quality cheap EV. Yes I know a long shot but it is possible.  
Another fear is China, it's well know that they want to be a world EV manufacturer and they are not shy in hobbling competition.  Will China continue their 'business as usual' with Tesla, or will they give priority to their own manufacturers?









						Regulators summon Tesla over consumers’ quality complaints, urged to follow laws - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn


----------



## basilio

Who  is Elon Musk ?  Really.

The smartest person in any room anywhere’: in defence of Elon Musk, by Douglas Coupland​
He’s the Silicon Valley Übermensch, the maverick boss of Tesla and SpaceX who wants us to colonise Mars and who can wipe out billions of dollars with a single tweet. So what’s not to love?
by Douglas Coupland

Sun 29 Aug 2021 19.00 AEST
Last modified on Mon 6 Sep 2021 23.52 AEST


It’s interesting whenever Elon Musk’s name comes up and people begin discussing his accomplishments, such as the reinvention of money, automobiles and space travel, there’s always someone who says: “Yeah, but I hear he can be a real dick.”
Take _that_, Elon.

So then, let’s be totally honest here, because in your heart, you know, and I know, dear reader, that you can be a real dick, too. So can I, and, if we’re being truly honest, so can, say, the Queen. She probably has to be a dick 10 times a week. So since when does being a dick somehow invalidate you as a person? It doesn’t. That’s just stupid. And what’s in it for you to dis someone you don’t know, anyway? Being negative is a stupid person’s way of trying to appear smart without actually being smart. And let’s also be certain about something else: we all hate a goody two-shoes, so come on, what kind of perfect behaviour is it you expect from a person, any person, let alone Elon Musk?









						‘The smartest person in any room anywhere’: in defence of Elon Musk, by Douglas Coupland
					

He’s the Silicon Valley Übermensch who wants us to colonise Mars and who can wipe out billions of dollars with a single tweet. So what’s not to love?




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## JohnDe

Well that was a decent drop in the SP, just as predicted. Anyone take the opportunity to buy, or waiting for another drop?


----------



## Craton

Know thy prey...
Apt words indeed for _insider trades_.


----------



## noirua

Elon Musk sells around $5 billion of Tesla stock​








						Elon Musk sells around $5 billion of Tesla stock
					

Musk sold the shares in part to satisfy tax obligations related to an exercise of stock options.




					www.cnbc.com
				



Elon Musk: 
	

			SEC FORM              4
		

Kimbal Musk: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000149473121000003/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml








						Kimbal Musk - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## sptrawler

I guess Elon is saying, when is enough, enough. 
He really is the Henry Ford of the BEV evolution, I guess if the DOW share market was like it is now, when Henry Ford started, he would be in a similar position.


----------



## willfairfax89

One more reason why buying a Tesla stock is a long-term game.
Loup Ventures fund managing partner Gene Munster expects Tesla's gross margin to rise to 40% in three years (now 26.6%). He explained it this way: the production capacity of the company will increase with the opening of factories in Austin and Berlin, the cost of batteries will decrease. In addition, Tesla's lucrative EV software subscription business will grow, including through subscriptions to the autopilot feature, which is currently in beta testing and is available on 150,000 vehicles. It costs $ 10,000 up front, or $ 199 per month.


----------



## sptrawler

willfairfax89 said:


> One more reason why buying a Tesla stock is a long-term game.
> Loup Ventures fund managing partner Gene Munster expects Tesla's gross margin to rise to 40% in three years (now 26.6%). He explained it this way: the production capacity of the company will increase with the opening of factories in Austin and Berlin, the cost of batteries will decrease. In addition, Tesla's lucrative EV software subscription business will grow, including through subscriptions to the autopilot feature, which is currently in beta testing and is available on 150,000 vehicles. It costs $ 10,000 up front, or $ 199 per month.




It sounds like, Tesla is the only share, an astute buyer should own?


----------



## noirua

sptrawler said:


> I guess Elon is saying, when is enough, enough.
> He really is the Henry Ford of the BEV evolution, I guess if the DOW share market was like it is now, when Henry Ford started, he would be in a similar position.



Yes, Elon has a sense of humour asking investors on Twitter if he should sell 10%. He knew he had to sell $1.1 billion worth to cover taxes and arranged for his Canadian cousin to sell out before him. At least he can't be accused now of secretly selling - Job done. The PE is said to be nearly 300 and a rival Rivian is now following TESLA: 








						Rivian’s mega IPO is a good test of the meme stock craze
					

Rivian’s IPO hasn’t spurred any feverish online posting.




					www.theverge.com


----------



## over9k

[Channelling my CFA study] 






If tesla's stock price is anything to go by, we haven't even hit shakeout point yet.


----------



## JohnDe

I hope that the sceptics stay skeptical a little longer


----------



## JohnDe

I don't understand the hostility towards Elon, his brother and the CEO selling a portion of their shares. Who in their right mind would not want to cash a few in to fund some other projects?


----------



## JohnDe

I'm interested in any predications for next years profits


----------



## basilio

Came across this presentation about Elon Musk by his ex-wife.

Pretty special.


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> I don't understand the hostility towards Elon, his brother and the CEO selling a portion of their shares. Who in their right mind would not want to cash a few in to fund some other projects?
> 
> View attachment 132751



Not to mention that when you are paid in stock options, and all your wealth is held in stock, you literally have no way of paying taxes with out selling stock.

(Well some people borrow against their stock, to pay the taxes, but that can set up some dangerous situations if interest rates rise in the future at the same time as your portfolio drops in value, causing you to be a forced seller, it’s a lot more sensible to just sell some stock, pay the taxes and have some cash on hand to live your best life before you kick the bucket)


----------



## mullokintyre

tesla comes out surprisingly well after taking on a Camel in Saudi Arabia.

Mick


----------



## basilio

Good story on Elon Musk and his revolutionizing of car manufacture. Also noted  his success with Space X.









						Will Elon Musk be remembered as an automotive pioneer? | John Naughton
					

The richest person in the world often attracts headlines for the wrong reasons. But his upending of traditional car-production methods should not be forgotten




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## rederob

JohnDe said:


> I'm interested in any predications for next years profits
> 
> View attachment 132753



Has a margin of over 25% so with Shanghai going gangbusters and Berlin ramping up Tesla,s operating profit should be huge.
There is a guy called Tesla Economist on YouTube who regularly runs the numbers.


----------



## JohnDe

Last years article but just as relevant, if not more so - 



> *Tesla*
> In 2020, Tesla’s gross revenue was $31.5 billion and its net revenue was $721 million. Its 2020 gross margin was 21%.
> 
> *General Motors*
> $122 billion and its net revenues earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were $9.7 billion. Its gross margin was 11.2%.
> 
> *Ford*
> 2020 net revenues EBIT were $2.8 billion and its 2020 gross margin were 11.3%
> 
> And that’s not all. Not only do Ford and GM have more debt than Tesla, but Tesla’s market cap is much larger than both of theirs combined.
> 
> When you compare the data for a company that is new and growing at incredible speeds to data from two other companies in the same field that have at least 100 years on the new company, it shows that Tesla is conserving its funds for growth and operations while the other two are having to spend billions on paying back debts.












						Analysis: Tesla Has Much Less Debt Than Ford & GM, & Much Higher Gross Margin
					

By Johnna Crider and Daryl Elliott I was recently given some detailed research by Daryl Elliott, who discovered that Tesla has less debt than Ford or GM. All three are American automakers and last year,




					cleantechnica.com


----------



## bluekelah

JohnDe said:


> I was first a Tesla sceptic, I then cautiously dipped my tow in the TSLA market about 18 months ago and have kept cautiously topping up on the lows.
> My views on the company have drastically change, I believe that it is an amazing company, I even purchased a M3LR. However, I am still cautious, as everyone should be.
> A meteoric rise can easily turn into a fall, but I do doubt the possibility as TESLA finish building the factories and the realisation of the death of ICE vehicles is realised.
> 
> My biggest fear is the big car companies - Toyota, VW, Ford getting together to supercharge production and sale of a quality cheap EV. Yes I know a long shot but it is possible.
> Another fear is China, it's well know that they want to be a world EV manufacturer and they are not shy in hobbling competition.  Will China continue their 'business as usual' with Tesla, or will they give priority to their own manufacturers?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Regulators summon Tesla over consumers’ quality complaints, urged to follow laws - Global Times
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.globaltimes.cn



Its already happening, in Europe some markets the european EV makers like VW and others have overtaken Tesla in some countries. Take this example from netherlands
Top 10 year-to-dateoctober data)

Kia Niro EV (e-Niro) - 3,734
Skoda Enyaq iV - 3,619
Volvo XC40 PHEV - 2,540
Ford Mustang Mach-E - 2,261
Volkswagen ID.4 - 1,993
Ford Kuga PHEV - 1,975
Tesla Model 3 - 1,482
BMW iX3 - 1,386
Lynk & Co 01 PHEV - 1,241
Volvo XC40 Recharge - 1,203
IN USA we have Rivian and Ford with the new EV trucks getting all the news and fanfare. I think the Ford F150 lightning truck has already surpassed 160k reservation. Ford share price has since 4x this year from that.

In China, there are many new EV startups(*Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto are all challenging Tesla)*  and now battery makers too. Only reason they let Tesla in was to copy the tech, now they have done so, they have a plethora of local EVs gaining sales fast and in some segments may outsell TEsla soon.

Tesla will likely prosper and grow together with the EV market but likely will experience some degree of margin compression. Unlike Apple which doesnt make their own phones, Tesla has to make their own cars, and there is no software platform to leverage off where you can sell software or subscriptions like on itunes/appstore. Teslas AI self driving tech is not really making much progress and still on the same level 2 grade as other car makers last time i looked.

And now with fed tapering the easy money and elon selling hard, i am not sure the market cap valuation can continue to be trillion dollars.


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> *Tesla*
> In 2020, Tesla’s gross revenue was $31.5 billion and its net revenue was $721 million. Its 2020 gross margin was 21%.



Gross Margin= whats left after taking in the COGS. It does not include all the admin overheads like marketing, non manufacturing staff, and debt interest costs.



JohnDe said:


> *General Motors*
> $122 billion and its net revenues earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were $9.7 billion. Its gross margin was 11.2%.
> 
> *Ford*
> 2020 net revenues EBIT were $2.8 billion and its 2020 gross margin were 11.3%
> 
> And that’s not all. Not only do Ford and GM have more debt than Tesla, but Tesla’s market cap is much larger than both of theirs combined.
> 
> When you compare the data for a company that is new and growing at incredible speeds to data from two other companies in the same field that have at least 100 years on the new company, it shows that Tesla is conserving its funds for growth and operations while the other two are having to spend billions on paying back debts.



I did a bit of head scratching over this one.

How did they come up with the gross margin of  21% when net revenue is 721mill on a gross revenue of 31.5billion?
I went looking for more information and found the last ten years  financials for all three companies.
If you look at the financial statements for each of them  TESLA , General Motors , and Ford 
I could not correlate the figures the analyst quoted for any of them.
There are two ways to fund a company, issue shares or negotiate debt, or do a combo of both.
Perhaps if one did a comparison of the EPS between tesla and the other two, one get an entirely different picture.
This is the first year that tesla has had a positive EPS at 64 CPS.
All previous years were negative returns.
Ford made a loss this year , its EPS was a negative 32CPS.
But every year prior to this it had a positive EPS.
GM this year had one if its better years with a positive eps of $4.33.Its last negative EPS was in 2016, all the others were positve.
You can draw numerous pictures from the above, as I currently don't plan to invest in any of them, I will draw none.
Mick


----------



## rederob

mullokintyre said:


> How did they come up with the gross margin of  21% when net revenue is 721mill on a gross revenue of 31.5billion?



The best comparison of apples with apples is here.
Comparisons are otherwise problematic as Tesla has Boring, Energy and Space X, while GM makes more from its vehicle financing arms.
Bottom line: Tesla is now a cash cow compared to GM:





That trend will continue as Tesla has no legacy issues to contend with and only improves its already class leading product, while the GMs and Fords of the world have nothing close in performance or quality.  
The other issue that will see Tesla streak ahead is its planning for battery needs to match its proposed production.


----------



## bluekelah

rederob said:


> The best comparison of apples with apples is here.
> Comparisons are otherwise problematic as Tesla has Boring, Energy and Space X, while GM makes more from its vehicle financing arms.
> Bottom line: Tesla is now a cash cow compared to GM:
> View attachment 134531
> 
> That trend will continue as Tesla has no legacy issues to contend with and only improves its already class leading product, while the GMs and Fords of the world have nothing close in performance or quality.
> The other issue that will see Tesla streak ahead is its planning for battery needs to match its proposed production.



well lets see how the boxing match between F150 lightning Vs. Cybertruck Vs Chevy Silverado goes. Bring on the truck wars!!


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> Its already happening, in Europe some markets the european EV makers like VW and others have overtaken Tesla in some countries. Take this example from netherlands
> Top 10 year-to-dateoctober data)
> 
> Kia Niro EV (e-Niro) - 3,734
> Skoda Enyaq iV - 3,619
> Volvo XC40 PHEV - 2,540
> Ford Mustang Mach-E - 2,261
> Volkswagen ID.4 - 1,993
> Ford Kuga PHEV - 1,975
> Tesla Model 3 - 1,482
> BMW iX3 - 1,386
> Lynk & Co 01 PHEV - 1,241
> Volvo XC40 Recharge - 1,203
> IN USA we have Rivian and Ford with the new EV trucks getting all the news and fanfare. I think the Ford F150 lightning truck has already surpassed 160k reservation. Ford share price has since 4x this year from that.
> 
> In China, there are many new EV startups(*Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto are all challenging Tesla)*  and now battery makers too. Only reason they let Tesla in was to copy the tech, now they have done so, they have a plethora of local EVs gaining sales fast and in some segments may outsell TEsla soon.
> 
> Tesla will likely prosper and grow together with the EV market but likely will experience some degree of margin compression. Unlike Apple which doesnt make their own phones, Tesla has to make their own cars, and there is no software platform to leverage off where you can sell software or subscriptions like on itunes/appstore. Teslas AI self driving tech is not really making much progress and still on the same level 2 grade as other car makers last time i looked.
> 
> And now with fed tapering the easy money and elon selling hard, i am not sure the market cap valuation can continue to be trillion dollars.




Hybrids are a stop gap. What really counts is plug in EV, and don't just look at a model look at the brand. Tesla sells multiple models; the M3, Mx, MY and MS.

*What Brand Sells The Most Electric Cars In Europe?*




*Best-selling plug-in electric vehicle models in Europe between January and September 2021*














						What Brand Sells The Most Electric Cars In Europe?
					

Following up on our report on which automotive groups have been selling the most electric cars across 10 European markets, let's look at which brands have been seeing the most sales (read: registrations). We will




					cleantechnica.com


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Gross Margin= whats left after taking in the COGS. It does not include all the admin overheads like marketing, non manufacturing staff, and debt interest costs.
> 
> 
> I did a bit of head scratching over this one.
> 
> How did they come up with the gross margin of  21% when net revenue is 721mill on a gross revenue of 31.5billion?
> I went looking for more information and found the last ten years  financials for all three companies.
> If you look at the financial statements for each of them  TESLA , General Motors , and Ford
> I could not correlate the figures the analyst quoted for any of them.
> There are two ways to fund a company, issue shares or negotiate debt, or do a combo of both.
> Perhaps if one did a comparison of the EPS between tesla and the other two, one get an entirely different picture.
> This is the first year that tesla has had a positive EPS at 64 CPS.
> All previous years were negative returns.
> Ford made a loss this year , its EPS was a negative 32CPS.
> But every year prior to this it had a positive EPS.
> GM this year had one if its better years with a positive eps of $4.33.Its last negative EPS was in 2016, all the others were positve.
> You can draw numerous pictures from the above, as I currently don't plan to invest in any of them, I will draw none.
> Mick




Yes, the accountants do a great job - 

*FORD*











*GENERAL MOTORS*










*TESLA*


----------



## CityIndex

Tesla stock has pulled back nearly 28% since hitting its all-time-high in early November, but how much of this is specific to the stock, and how much is a result of the broader market volatility?

The sell-off began when Elon Musk’s Twitter poll supported him in selling 10% of his holdings, but the overall market sentiment since then hasn't helped either. The Omicron variant is sparking fear of a return to lockdowns, while last week also saw a hawkish pivot among the major central banks.

However, Tesla remains the leader in the EV space. This is backed up by their impressive financial growth in recent times, and with tech that is still superior to their competitors, they would be expected to continue to dominate the industry for the foreseeable future.

With $TSLA closing today below the key $900 level, it’ll be interesting to see how it shapes up over the coming weeks. Of course, all trading carries risk, but can the stock bounce from here, or are we going to have to wait before it starts another leg higher?


----------



## sptrawler

There is a lot of chatter online about competitors EV products, especially the U.S and China where Tesla has had a major lead, punters are probably getting nervous about Tesla's ability to hold it's leading position.
Today Nio is talking of a Tesla model 3 style vehicle the ET5 with a 1,000klm range, very improbable IMO, but still worrying for investors.
What will be interesting will be if Tesla can beat China on price, most other manufacturers can't and as yet Tesla can't rely on its legacy as Ford, Porsche, BMW, Merc etc can.









						Nio unveils ET5 electric sedan with "ultra-long range" of up to 1,000km
					

Nio unveils another so-called "Tesla-killer", and plans to expand further into Europe as it opens up the Silk Road for battery swapping and charging.




					thedriven.io


----------



## JohnDe

More than once I have seen surveys that show graduating engineers putting Tesla on the top of their list of preferred laces to work. How many ICE manufacturers can say that?


----------



## sptrawler

Space X getting in the news, for all the wrong reasons, sounds like the orbiting satellites have an auto pilot issue also. 🤣









						Elon Musk's SpaceX satellites catch heat in China over close calls with space station
					

Elon Musk's rocky year in China is ending on another sour note.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## JohnDe

This will be an interesting week for TSLA shares; will the price drop or increase?

Tesla sold everything that they could produce, including demo models and all other stock.

Q4 Production: 305,840
Q4 Deliveries: 308,600

2021 Production: 930,422
2021 Deliveries: 936,172



> On Sunday, we received the Q4 2021 production and delivery report from electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). The company was expected to finish the year strong, primarily thanks to the Shanghai factory ramp. Tesla did just that, coming in with its best quarter ever, while also proving that wall street analyst estimates may not be worth watching anymore.












						Tesla Stock: Analysts Whiff Again (NASDAQ:TSLA)
					

Tesla's Q4 deliveries beat unrealistically low estimates. Check out why I think TSLA's revenue estimates will rise until its Q4 report.




					seekingalpha.com


----------



## noirua

Tesla (TSLA) Receives a Sell from J.P. Morgan​03/01/2022 7:30am GMT​TipRanks​In a report released today, Ryan Brinkman from J.P. Morgan maintained a Sell rating on Tesla (TSLA – Research Report), with a price target of $295.00. The company's shares closed last Friday at $1056.78. According to TipRanks.com, Brinkman is a 2-star analyst with an average return of 0.6% and a 62.1% success rate. Brinkman covers the Industrial Goods sector, focusing on stocks such as Dana Holding, BorgWarner, and Autoliv. The word on The Street in general, suggests a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating for Tesla with a $1030.08 average price target.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurb...rgan?utm_source=advfn.com&utm_medium=referral


----------



## noirua

Tesla soars 7% after crushing delivery and production numbers (NASDAQ:TSLA)
					

How will Tesla (TSLA) fare in 2021? Well, the latest blowout numbers from the company sent its stock up 7% premarket to $1,130, before the first trading day of the year




					seekingalpha.com
				




Live Price Chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=stat...idth=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240


----------



## Dona Ferentes

make that *up 12.8%* on the US market overnight


----------



## JohnDe

> Deutsche Bank said the company is better equipped to face semiconductor bottlenecks than its peers. It raised its Q4 revenue forecast to $17.2 billion from $16.1 billion and its EPS expectation to $2.70 from $2.46.




Who purchased during the 2-3 wen dip?









						Tesla's 'Impressive' Q4 Deliveries Suggest Upside Potential for 2022, Deutsche Bank Says
					

Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA reported an "impressive" delivery count of 308,600 for Q4, Deutsche Bank said in a note. The deliveries surpassed the investment firm's estimate of 282,000, which was already up from the consensus estimate of 265,000 deliveries, according to the note. Deutsche Bank said the compan…




					www.tradingview.com


----------



## orr

I keep some entries with projections/guess's;
Gali Russell on 19/12/2020 gave unit production for 4th qtr at 300k and total for 2021 at 935k ...
credit where credits due..

Been a couple of good long form sit downs with Dave Lee in the last couple of weeks, not least with James Douma.


----------



## JohnDe

orr said:


> I keep some entries with projections/guess's;
> Gali Russell on 19/12/2020 gave unit production for 4th qtr at 300k and total for 2021 at 935k ...
> credit where credits due..
> 
> Been a couple of good long form sit downs with Dave Lee in the last couple of weeks, not least with James Douma.




Thanks for the name, my search lead me to -


----------



## JohnDe

CanOz said:


> Tesla has been tracing a well know bearish pattern, the head and shoulders. It has broken the neckline and is at the typical 'throwback' or 'retest'. There are a couple of ways to play this but i like 'looking inside the bars' and determining what the market structure tells me could be the best entries and stop locations.
> 
> To do this i use volume profile on an intra-day chart.
> 
> Examples of two ways to play this as a swing trade:
> You can clearly see on the price action above the gap we have a double distribution pattern. Statistically the lower half of the distribution usually gets a re-test more than 50% of the time, so 215.98 becomes our aggressive entry. The stop is placed above the value area of the higher distribution. If we prefer to wait for more downward price action then a more 'conservative' entry could actually be the gap play, with a stop above the low volume node at 215.29
> 
> The target area for this pattern is around the 149.75 area, which is a measured move from the high, to the 'neckline' and also coincides with a prior VWAP. These prior areas of 'value' are almost 'magnetic' targets.
> 
> Trade it well....




There's been talk of another share split for months, this guy gives the reasons why there will be another -


----------



## orr

Mr Johnde...
On Gali..I'd only add the almost rhetorical... 'past preformance is no indication. ...etc.etc.'

Again and again from a multipul  of those on this; the major upside/downside for 2022 is the inhouse 4680.
Toward the end of 22 the rollout of insurance( rhumored 6 extra states this qtr) .. worth keeping an eye on to.


----------



## JohnDe

orr said:


> Mr Johnde...
> On Gali..I'd only add the almost rhetorical... 'past preformance is no indication. ...etc.etc.'
> 
> Again and again from a multipul  of those on this; the major upside/downside for 2022 is the inhouse 4680.
> Toward the end of 22 the rollout of insurance( rhumored 6 extra states this qtr) .. worth keeping an eye on to.




True. And don't forget about the opening of Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, very soon.


----------



## JohnDe

A fair discussion about TSLA on another thread, some members mentioning that profit is poor and productivity low and that Tesla is not much better than all the major vehicle manufacturers. 

Instead of continuing the discussion over in the *Inflation* thread, I thought best to post some factual info here.

Remembering that this article was released before Tesla's glowing sales numbers from early January 2022

_*The secret behind Tesla’s 30% gross margin

The company's Q3 sales rose 58% year-on-year despite a 6% decrease in average selling price, allowing for high margins for the electric vehicle manufacturer*

Manufacturers of vehicles using internal combustion engines say large investments funded by revenue from selling gas and diesel vehicles can make up for the deficit incurred by the production of electric vehicles (EVs).

This is why governments worldwide offer huge subsidies to buyers of such eco-friendly vehicles, which are not profitable for manufacturers, to expand the supply of EVs.

US-based Tesla, the world's largest EV maker, however, has broken this paradigm in the sector. Its recent report on its third quarter performance refutes the idea that the company cannot earn huge profits by selling EVs.

*Gross sales margin that outstrips that of luxury automakers*

Tesla's car sales in the third quarter rose to an estimated US$12.1 billion, up 58% or US$4.4 billion won from the same quarter last year, as the number of units sold from July to September this year was around 240,000, up 100,000 over the same period.

A noteworthy detail is that automotive gross profit — overall sales minus manufacturing costs — surged 74% over the same period. The automotive gross margin of such vehicles — the ratio of gross profit divided by sales — also rose from 27.7% to a record-high 30.5%, meaning Tesla earned a profit of around US$25,000 for every roughly US$90,000 vehicle it sold.

Im Eun-young, a senior analyst at Samsung Securities, told the Hankyoreh over the phone, "The gross sales margin of 30% is higher than those of German luxury carmakers BMW and Mercedes-Benz, and this standard is exclusive to the best luxury automakers like Porsche and Ferrari."

Germany-based Daimler AG, which owns Mercedes-Benz, had a gross sales margin of 23% in this year's second quarter, while Toyota — nicknamed the "master of cost reduction" — had 21% and Hyundai Motor only 19%.

The average selling price (ASP) of Tesla EVs is also falling. The figure fell 6% in a year from around US$54,000 in the third quarter last year to around US$50,000 in the same quarter this year. This is because the Tesla Model S and Model X — each priced around or over US$90,000 — saw their share shrink to about 4% of overall sales, but the lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y saw jumps in sales.

Despite this, the company's profit margin improved because manufacturing costs decreased significantly more than sticker prices. Over the cited period, the cost per unit decreased 12% from around US$40,000 to roughly US$35,200.

The Tesla report said, "Our operating margin reached an all-time high as we continue to reduce cost at a higher rate than declines in ASP." Thus, cost cutting seems to be the secret to achieving high profitability.

*The "economy of scale" effect and a low-cost plant in China*

How did Tesla earn such a high margin by selling electric vehicles, which are traditionally money losers?

The first factor is its economy of scale. In industries with a large proportion of fixed costs such as facility investment and development expenses such as cars, profits surge when sales increase due to the profit-leverage effect, in which the manufacturing cost per unit falls with high sales volume.

Tesla makes four models: the Model S, Model X, Model 3 and Model Y. Lower production costs are made possible through efforts like cutting the unit price of parts and maintaining fixed costs due to rising sales. Makers of cars using internal combustion engines that entered the EV market late face different circumstances, however. Until sales of electric vehicles reach a given scale, losses are inevitable due to massive investment costs.

Koh Tae-bong, head of research at Hi Investment and Securities, said, "The profitability of EVs basically depends on the scale of output using the EV-only framework [platform] developed by the manufacturer," adding, "Tesla will produce about a million units this year, resulting in economies of scale, but Hyundai is only capable of doing the same by 2025."

Also helping Tesla's margins is the company's expansion of factories in China, where labor and logistics costs are relatively cheap. Output capacity at the automaker's Shanghai plant, which went online in late 2019, is 450,000 units, and production there growing enough to cover the recent scale of exports to Europe.

*The magic of "giga casting"*

Analysts point to another factor behind Tesla's high profit margin. Park Hyung-keun, a senior researcher at POSCO Research Institute, said, "Through vertical integration by directly being involved from floor design to parts supply and demand, production and service, Tesla has helped reduce costs by raising the degree of its parts integration and cutting overlapping costs."

Tesla's unique structure of vertical integration, ranging from the development of semiconductor chips, software and batteries for electric vehicles, to charging, unmanned driving and insurance services, helps lower costs. Its “do-it-all” approach simplifies the automotive production process in a manner resembling that of electronic products. In contrast, other automakers actively utilize production outsourcing to diversify vehicle quality risks and raise output efficiency.

A leading example is Tesla's “giga” aluminum die-casting process. A Giga Press weighing more than 1 giga pound (400 tonnes, or around 900,000 pounds) stamps the entire rear chassis of a car with a large aluminum alloy. About 70 metal plates can be welded to the chassis, but giga casting can simplify the process and slash production costs by about 40%. This is why Tesla electric vehicles have recently reduced panel gaps issues — defects caused by misaligned steel plate seams.

The company plans to expand the use of giga casting, which it began applying last year, to the front of its EVs.

By Park Jong-o, staff reporter









						The secret behind Tesla’s 30% gross margin
					

The company's Q3 sales rose 58% year-on-year despite a 6% decrease in average selling price, allowing for high margins for the electric vehicle manufacturer




					english.hani.co.kr
				



_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I believe that is from an article in the WSJ on Tesla vertical integration.

Ole Elon must have been saving it for the Tesla BTC price correction.

gg


----------



## JohnDe

For anyone that thinking that the big manufacturers are just warming up with their EV production, watch this -


----------



## JohnDe

January 26 will be two interesting days - 
First day is in Australia as 70% of the population celebrate Australia Day and the other 30% protest and rebel against it.
The second is in the USA Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Financial Results and Webcast. 
_AUSTIN, Texas, January 12, 2022 – Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2021 after market close on Wednesday, January 26, 2022. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2021 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook._​
Good news and happiness and positivity will push all up and over the lows of he past few months. Bad news and things sink lower.

I will be one of the positive ones, brining out the Australia flag and a few beers.


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> January 26 will be two interesting days -
> First day is in Australia as 70% of the population celebrate Australia Day and the other 30% protest and rebel against it.
> The second is in the USA Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Financial Results and Webcast.
> _AUSTIN, Texas, January 12, 2022 – Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2021 after market close on Wednesday, January 26, 2022. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2021 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook._​
> Good news and happiness and positivity will push all up and over the lows of he past few months. Bad news and things sink lower.
> 
> I will be one of the positive ones, brining out the Australia flag and a few beers.



Well, Jd, I suggest you skip the beers and go to Champagne.
Tesla has confounded many doubters (me included), and excited the  faithfull (you) by  producing a record annual profit.
From The Australian


> Tesla cruised to a record annual profit but cautioned that the supply-chain disruptions that dogged auto makers last year are likely to continue through 2022.
> Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker posted a $5.5 billion annual profit on $53.8 billion of sales last year, after increasing vehicle deliveries at its fastest pace in years. That is up from $721 million in profit and $31.5 billion in sales in 2020, when Tesla generated its first full-year profit, and ahead of Wall Street’s expectations.
> Tesla delivered more than 936,000 vehicles globally last year, up 87% from 2020, despite global computer-chip shortages that constrained vehicle production across the auto industry.



And for his answer to labour shortages, Musk is turning to robotics.


> Any business that has struggled with labour shortages this summer should drop Tesla founder Elon Musk a line.
> The electric car maker is placing a big bet on developing smart humanoid robots that Musk claims will have “the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time”.
> 
> The project, dubbed Optimus, or Optimus Subprime, is a priority project, Musk told investors on a Tesla earnings call on Thursday. The robot, unveiled in August last year, has the aim to change the face of the workforce over time and goes to the heart of supply issues impacting the economy. This has become a stark reality for Australian businesses – both small and big – that have seen severe worker shortages during the spread of Covid in recent months.
> Miners, transport and supermarkets have been severely squeezed due to worker isolation or illnesses.
> Even with the robot targeted for production next year, it’s a long way before Tesla robots are working in a Coles or Woolworths distribution warehouse, but it’s one vision of a labour-constrained future, particularly for an economy such as Australia facing a slower population growth curve.
> 
> Tesla's smart robot dubbed Optimus
> “If you think about the economy, the foundation of the economy is labour. Capital equipment is the skilled labour. So what happens if you don’t actually have a labour shortage? I’m not sure what kind of an economy even means at that point. That’s what Optimus is about,” Musk said on Thursday morning.
> 
> Musk says he plans to use the robots in roles “like moving parts around the factory”.
> 
> “If we can’t find a use, then we can’t expect others will”.




Mick


----------



## Jeda

mullokintyre said:


> Well, Jd, I suggest you skip the beers and go to Champagne.
> Tesla has confounded many doubters (me included), and excited the  faithfull (you) by  producing a record annual profit.
> From The Australian
> 
> And for his answer to labour shortages, Musk is turning to robotics.
> 
> 
> Mick




After reading this thread and watching the price drop I thought that tesla was in trouble. I'll have to look up what others are saying to confirm


----------



## JohnDe

The next few years will be very interesting in the automotive vehicle industry. All the big guns are spending billions of $'s to be able tp ramp up production of their EV line up, all while they continue to produce ICEVs and a massive shortage in raw materials for battery production. Tesla is only a minnow in the car industry but they have the jump by about 5 years and all the contracts signed for batteries and minerals. In the next 10 years Tesla could be the the biggest automotive vehicle manufacturers in the wold, it all depends on how their management runs the business. And with two more gigafactories coming on line in the next month, well let's see what happens. 

*Tesla’s Fremont Factory was the most productive auto factory in the U.S. in 2021*
_
New data from Bloomberg states that Tesla’s Fremont Factory in Northern California was the most-productive automotive plant in the U.S., outpacing 70 other plants in the country.

Last year, Tesla’s Fremont Factory averaged a weekly production pace of 8,550 vehicles. That’s about 1,221 cars per day, 51 cars per hour, or about .85 cars per minute. However you break it down, the Fremont Factory’s manufacturing prowess showed its domination in 2021, as it was the most productive automotive factory in the United States in 2021, outpacing Toyota, BMW, and Ford factories that have long created the most robust figures of car production in previous decades.

For comparison, Toyota’s plant in Georgetown, Kentucky built 8,427 cars per week, BMW’s facility in South Carolina managed 8,343 units per week, and Ford’s Dearborn, Michigan hub managed just 5,564 vehicles weekly. All figures were provided by Bloomberg.

The history of the Fremont Factory tells the story of long-standing automotive companies that simply vacated the factory to make way for the next big thing. In the 1960s, GM operated the plant. Then in 1984, Toyota’s New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc partnered with GM to run the plant. Ultimately, GM’s bankruptcy in 2009 left the 5.3 million square foot plant vacant. Tesla took ownership in 2010, renovated several portions of the factory, expanded production availability (a project that continues to this day), and currently has more than 10,000 active employees at the plant. The Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y are all produced at the site.

2020 and 2021 were arguably the darkest years of the global automotive market in recent memory. Only rivaled by perhaps the 2008 recession, which brought GM and other automakers to their knees, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic was a dark spot in an emerging sector.

The rebirth of American automotive manufacturing had taken a turn as Tesla had basically influenced an entire sector to rethink its strategies. Instead of continuing to develop powertrains powered from gas or petrol, legacy automakers have transitioned to EVs. The industry’s entire move could basically be hinged on the fact that Tesla has switched a massive amount of drivers to electric cars, and the production figures are proving that.

While Tesla has only one operational U.S. plant as Gigafactory Texas nears production soon, its North American customer base has been accepting cars from the Northern California plant. However, this one plant has managed to avoid heavy delivery delays due to bottlenecks in the supply chain and parts shortages and become the most proactive American automotive manufacturing facility in 2021.

Most impressively, Tesla has continued to expand its yearly production capacity as a company. Last year, it was mostly due to Gigafactory Shanghai’s massive production figures, which accounted for a majority of vehicle deliveries as it is Tesla’s main export hub to the extremely competitive European market. Tesla managed 936,172 deliveries in 2021, a 47 percent increase from a year prior._









						Tesla's Fremont Factory was the most productive auto factory in the U.S. in 2021
					

New data from Bloomberg states that Tesla’s Fremont Factory in Northern California was the most-productive automotive plant in the U.S., outpacing 70 other plants in the country. Last year, Tesla’s Fremont Factory averaged a weekly production pace of 8,550 vehicles. That’s about 1,221 cars per...




					www.teslarati.com


----------



## mullokintyre

On the down side, Tesla has been accused of fudging its sales figures in Australia.
From Drive Australia


> Tesla has been accused of inflating its sales figures in Australia after a report released by the electric-vehicle lobby group claimed *15,000* examples were sold locally last year – just days after registration data revealed *12,000* Tesla cars were added to the nation’s roads in 2021.
> An important victory hangs in the balance, depending on which number is correct.
> Based on unsubstantiated figures released by Tesla and the Electric Vehicle Council, the Tesla Model 3 sedan has scuppered the 28-year winning streak of the Toyota Camry in the mid-size sedan class in Australia (15,054 versus 13,081 sales).
> 
> However, based on national registration data, the Tesla Model 3 finished a close second behind the Toyota Camry last year (12,058 versus 13,081 sales) and the 28-year winning streak still stands.
> Either way, as reported exclusively by _Drive_ last week, Tesla delivered a record number of vehicles in Australia in 2021 – more than triple its tally from the prior year – and outsold the entire line-ups of long-standing car brands such as Lexus, Skoda, Volvo, and Jeep, even though Tesla only had one model.



A 25% discrepancy is a tad more than a rounding error. 
And just to add to its list of "issues" comes news of another recall.
From Wral tech Wire


> Tesla is recalling nearly 54,000 cars and SUVs because their “Full Self-Driving” software lets them roll through stop signs without coming to a complete halt.
> 
> Documents posted Tuesday by U.S. safety regulators say that Tesla will disable the feature with an over-the-internet software update. The “rolling stop” feature allows vehicles to go through intersections with all-way stop signs at up to 5.6 miles per hour.
> 
> Tesla agreed to the recall after two meetings with officials from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, according to documents. Tesla said that it knows of no crashes or injuries caused by feature.
> 
> The recall covers Model S sedans and X SUVs from 2016 through 2022, as well as 2017 to 2022 Model 3 sedans and 2020 through 2022 Model Y SUVs.



Don't know what happens in other states, but in Victoria, rolling through a stop sign is a $540 fine and 3 demerit points.
Ans you get a good talking to.
Mick


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> On the down side, Tesla has been accused of fudging its sales figures in Australia.
> From Drive Australia
> 
> A 25% discrepancy is a tad more than a rounding error.
> And just to add to its list of "issues" comes news of another recall.
> From Wral tech Wire
> 
> Don't know what happens in other states, but in Victoria, rolling through a stop sign is a $540 fine and 3 demerit points.
> Ans you get a good talking to.
> Mick



It could be a matter of when they count sales, for example do they count “sale” at the moment a make my online transfer payment for the car, or a couple of weeks later when I actually take delivery and the number plates are asssigned?

As far as company reporting goes I am happy for Tesla to count a “sale” the moment the customer completes the online sales process and transfers their payment, but I can see that some people might not count a sale until the car is registered and delivered.


----------



## mullokintyre

Value Collector said:


> It could be a matter of when they count sales, for example do they count “sale” at the moment a make my online transfer payment for the car, or a couple of weeks later when I actually take delivery and the number plates are asssigned?
> 
> As far as company reporting goes I am happy for Tesla to count a “sale” the moment the customer completes the online sales process and transfers their payment, but I can see that some people might not count a sale until the car is registered and delivered.



There may well be discrepancies in the timing of sales, but a 25% discrepancy is just too big.
And if the issue is timing of sales, what you lose in the beginning of the year you should pick up at the end of the year when people pay for their cars, but they are some way from being delivered or registered in the next year.
Mick


----------



## noirua

Tesla Recalls Nearly 54,000 Vehicles That May Run Stop Signs
		

The automaker is recalling 53,822 vehicles in the U.S. that have the Full Self-Driving (Beta) software installed. Reuters reports the software may instruct some models to perform "rolling stops" instead of stopping completely, which poses safety concerns at intersections.
2 February 2022


----------



## JohnDe

New app update for the Tesla, very handy to work out energy cost & fuel savings. Needs a bit of fine tuning, I can’t adjust the cost of petrol and they have it on the low side, I know this because I can see we have made a large savings each month from the fuel account statement.


----------



## orr

The Munro tear down of the Plaid; Automotive Engineering eye candy....


----------



## JohnDe

"The feud between Elon Musk and Tesla with President Biden after Biden has snubbed Tesla in favor of GM and Ford as leaders of EV revolution in America, may be coming to an end and there may be some hope for reconciliation. State of Charge host Tom Moloughney will be here to sort through the drama, plus other electric car news of the week."​


----------



## mullokintyre

Elon Musk has admitted that Tesla "dropped the Ball" on its rollout of Tesla Model X and Model S vehicles.
From Zero Hedge



> If there's one thing we can't help but notice every time Tesla reports deliveries, it's that the company looks as though it has simply given up on its Model S and Model X vehicles, with its Model 3 and Model Y cars making up a majority of the company's sales.
> 
> Now, even Elon Musk is copping to the fact that the company has botched the rollout of its red-headed stepchild, the Model X revamp. On Twitter this week, Musk admitted that Tesla "dropped the ball badly regarding new Model X production ramp & still haven’t fully recovered".
> 
> He also said it was "idiotic to stop production of old X in Dec 2020 when there was still plenty of demand!"
> The statement was responding to a customer who said they had been waiting on the vehicle for over a year.
> 
> "Here's a criticism, the refreshed Model X rollout has been horrible & the lack of communication to customers who have been waiting for a year or more for their car & keep receiving delays is disappointing," the customer wrote.
> 
> As a reminder, in January, Tesla announced that for 2021, it had delivered "over 936,000" vehicles, per a company press release. Those numbers were up about 87% from the year prior, according to Bloomberg. The report also reminded that Tesla has said "repeatedly it expects 50% annual increases in deliveries over a multi-year period



Mick


----------



## JohnDe

It's all in the book, a very interesting and informative read - *Power Play: Tesla, Elon Musk, and the Bet of the Century*



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/teslas-wild-ride-steered-by-elon-musk/2021/08/25/b68c0288-f83d-11eb-943a-c5cf30d50e6a_story.html


----------



## Trader X

JohnDe said:


> The next few years will be very interesting in the automotive vehicle industry. All the big guns are spending billions of $'s to be able tp ramp up production of their EV line up, all while they continue to produce ICEVs and a massive shortage in raw materials for battery production. Tesla is only a minnow in the car industry but they have the jump by about 5 years and all the contracts signed for batteries and minerals. In the next 10 years Tesla could be the the biggest automotive vehicle manufacturers in the world, it all depends on how their management runs the business. And with two more gigafactories coming on line in the next month, well let's see what happens.



I use to live in Fremont, CA so interesting to see Tesla's investment activity there.  Tesla's head start and tech lead in the EV space will of course be reined in by competition from the majors over time.  Top engineers and designers get poached all the time and Tesla has already experienced this talent drain.  EVs will become cheaper and margins squeezed so Tesla will need those gigafactories and lower production costs to stay competitive.  Touting FSD as a big advantage and revenue earner is premature.  I am more excited about the prospects for Tesla's energy business, this will likely be the main driver of explosive revenue growth in years ahead - less competition in this space.


----------



## orr

Trader X said:


> Top engineers and designers get poached all the time and Tesla has already experienced this talent drain.



They do and have...But it cuts both ways... you  need only to look at *Franz von Holzhausen *C.V... And you also have  ask where is fresh thinking going to go to get appreciated???  


Trader X said:


> EVs will become cheaper and margins squeezed so Tesla will need those gigafactories and lower production costs to stay competitive.



I'd be more in the camp that's thinking the other Auto OEM's will need 'Gigafactories' to become competative.

What are the Chinese upto ??? I'd luv to know...
But what I do know is that Volvo have started 'mega casting' chassis components.... And it's not that they and all the other manufacturers didn't know about it as a process; It was the internal cultures of the companies themselves  that killed the idea in the crib.
Internal Managment Cultures get nimble.... or go bankrupt.


----------



## JohnDe

*Altman Z score: Tesla putting LEGACY Auto in bankruptcy zone*

(What Is the Altman Z-Score?​The Altman Z-score is the output of a credit-strength test that gauges a publicly traded manufacturing company's likelihood of bankruptcy.)​


----------



## mullokintyre

From electek



> Tesla has updated its pricing for the Model 3 and Model Y, raising the prices of the long-range versions by $1,000.
> 
> It comes as nickel prices are surging.
> 
> In 2021, Tesla made so many price increases that we have lost count.
> 
> The automaker blamed the increases on being under pressure from supply chain constraints following the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is also fair to note that Tesla’s gross margins went up throughout the year.
> 
> Things have calmed down on that front over the last few months with Tesla’s last price increase in November.
> 
> But now Tesla is back with a new update to the Model 3 and Model Y configurations, and it is again an increase in price.
> 
> The price of the Model 3 Long Range increases by $1,000 from $50,990 to $51,990:



I can't imagine all the other EV manufacturers are immune from the inflationary aspects of raw materials increases.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> From electek
> 
> *In 2021, Tesla made so many price increases that we have lost count.*





mullokintyre said:


> I can't imagine all the other EV manufacturers are immune from the inflationary aspects of raw materials increases.
> Mick




That's strange, I remember a price reduction last year because I just missed it -

_July 12 2021: Tesla has once again dropped the price of its most popular model Down Under – the Model 3's entry-level variant coming in at $59,900 before on-road costs._​​_The carmaker has cut the asking price significantly since the model arrived in Australia back in 2019, when its recommended retail price (RRP) was $66,000._​​_In addition to the Standard Range Plus, the mid-level and range-topping Long Range and Performance variants have also had their costs slashed, now priced at $73,400 and $84,900 respectively._​​_With the model now on offer at an all time low, both the Standard Range Plus and Long Range fall beneath the current Luxury Car Tax threshold of $79,659, and the Standard Range Plus is also made more affordable with various electric vehicle subsidies and incentives offered by several Australian states._​​_








						Tesla Model 3 price cut again – UPDATE
					

The cost of Tesla’s most popular model has reduced again




					www.whichcar.com.au
				



_


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> That's strange, I remember a price reduction last year because I just missed it -
> 
> _July 12 2021: Tesla has once again dropped the price of its most popular model Down Under – the Model 3's entry-level variant coming in at $59,900 before on-road costs._​​_The carmaker has cut the asking price significantly since the model arrived in Australia back in 2019, when its recommended retail price (RRP) was $66,000._​​_In addition to the Standard Range Plus, the mid-level and range-topping Long Range and Performance variants have also had their costs slashed, now priced at $73,400 and $84,900 respectively._​​_With the model now on offer at an all time low, both the Standard Range Plus and Long Range fall beneath the current Luxury Car Tax threshold of $79,659, and the Standard Range Plus is also made more affordable with various electric vehicle subsidies and incentives offered by several Australian states._​​_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla Model 3 price cut again – UPDATE
> 
> 
> The cost of Tesla’s most popular model has reduced again
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.whichcar.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _



Tesla reduced their prices in OZ allright, (I think from memory the model 3 dropped by 4k), but this article is talkling about America.
In the US, there were a number of price rises.
Indeed, there was some suggestions that US buyers were subsidising Teslas overseas growth.
From  Autoblog



> Tesla raised the price of its two most affordable models in what is being described as a quiet overnight website update. The Model 3's base price is now $44,690 (including $1,200 for destination) and the Model Y now starts at $56,190 – an increase of roughly $2,000 for the Model 3 and $1,000 for the Model Y. Higher-trim variants of both models saw their prices raised by $1,000 as well.
> 
> The Model 3 Long Range model was immune from the adjustment; it still starts at $52,690. The Performance ticked up a grand, now starting at $59,190. The Model Y Performance (there's nothing beneath its Long Range variant, unlike the cheaper Model 3) now starts at $63,190.
> 
> And this is _far_ from the first time Tesla has raised prices on its U.S. models in 2021. In fact, since Elon infamously announced that the Model S base price would drop to $69,420 late last year, and allowed the base Model 3 and Y prices to drop into the upper $30,000 range, the company has been incrementally raising MSRPs across its U.S. lineup. The price hikes have even prompted some analysts to speculate that Tesla is effectively subsidizing cheaper models overseas by hiking prices here at home.
> 
> While cost, parts availability and labor issues have likely impacted Tesla much the same way they have the rest of the auto industry, that alone cannot explain the steady drum beat of price increases. In all likelihood, Tesla expects the Biden administration to continue its push for expanded electric vehicle subsidies, which would take some of the pricing burden off of the company itself.



While there are subsides, encouragements  etc from Governments, market distortions inevitably occur.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Tesla reduced their prices in OZ allright, (I think from memory the model 3 dropped by 4k), but this article is talkling about America.
> In the US, there were a number of price rises.
> Indeed, there was some suggestions that US buyers were subsidising Teslas overseas growth.
> From  Autoblog
> 
> 
> Whole there are subsides, encouragements  etc from Governments, market distortions inevitably occur.
> Mick




US Tesla pricing was cheapest in the world, price increases brought them closer to world parity. If you look at Tesla pricing for spares, accessories, upgrades and extras are priced in similarly across the globe, once you take into account exchange rates.


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> US Tesla pricing was cheapest in the world, price increases brought them closer to world parity. If you look at Tesla pricing for spares, accessories, upgrades and extras are priced in similarly across the globe, once you take into account exchange rates.



Look mate, you obviously are a big fan of Tesla, but if you read the original article at all, it quoted Tesla as saying that the pice increases were due to inflationary pressures , particularly Nickel. There was no mention of bringing them up to price parity, whatever  that level is.
I would have thought that  most people would be able to draw the conclusion  that these inflationary pressures will be applicable to all cars, made or exported, in all countries.
If you read my comment at the end of that article, I said these same inflationary pressures will apply to all vehicles, regardless of make or origin.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

JohnDe said:


> US Tesla pricing was cheapest in the world, price increases brought them closer to world parity. If you look at Tesla pricing for spares, accessories, upgrades and extras are priced in similarly across the globe, once you take into account exchange rates.






mullokintyre said:


> Look mate, you obviously are a big fan of Tesla, but if you read the original article at all, it quoted Tesla as saying that the pice increases were due to inflationary pressures , particularly Nickel. There was no mention of bringing them up to price parity, whatever  that level is.
> I would have thought that  most people would be able to draw the conclusion  that these inflationary pressures will be applicable to all cars, made or exported, in all countries.
> If you read my comment at the end of that article, I said these same inflationary pressures will apply to all vehicles, regardless of make or origin.
> Mick




"_it quoted Tesla as saying that the price increases were due to inflationary pressures , particularly Nickel_." I'm sorry but I can not see where the article quotes Tesla, maybe my eyes and brain are suffering from a full weeks work load. Could you pin point it for me please?

I have no doubt that inflationary pressure will have some affects on Tesla pricing, but my mention of Tesla price parity is something that has been slowly going on for over a year.

Tesla profit margin on each vehicle sold is much larger than the traditional vehicle manufacturers, giving Tesla more leeway with pricing. Supply is the problem, with some markets having a 6+ month waiting list.


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> "_it quoted Tesla as saying that the price increases were due to inflationary pressures , particularly Nickel_." I'm sorry but I can not see where the article quotes Tesla, maybe my eyes and brain are suffering from a full weeks work load. Could you pin point it for me please?



My apologies, although the article did mention that Tesla said the price was due to supply constraints,  the article did not quote Tesla when it talked about  Nickel as being one of the supply constraints.


JohnDe said:


> Tesla profit margin on each vehicle sold is much larger than the traditional vehicle manufacturers,



Do you have any financial stats to back that up?
According to mint


> The Model 3 sedans Tesla sells in China have higher profit margins than its vehicles in the U.S. and Europe, and China could make up more than 40% of Tesla’s sales by early 2022, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said in a Dec. 21 research note. That compares with about 20% now.



The low end model 3 will also have the lowest margins.
Big margins will only be made on the top level accessory filled vehicles.
Its no secret that all vehicle makers are moving production to the high end of all their models for just that reason.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Do you have any financial stats to back that up?
> According to mint
> 
> 
> Mick




The financials came out a few months ago, they seemed healthy to me. Here's a short breakdown from an industry follower - 

_Tesla reported blockbuster quarterly and annual earnings last week, notching its single largest net profit number of US$2.32 billion for Q4 and US$5.5 billion annual profit on $53.8 billion of revenue for 2021. That's a bit over 10% net income for the year, but the actual margin on building electric vehicles is much higher. Tucked in the latest Tesla earnings report is the tidbit that its cost of goods sold (COGS) directly attributable to the production of an electric vehicle in the second half of 2021 was US$36,000. That's how much the average Tesla car costs in parts and assembly. Needless to say, a Model S Plaid or Model Y will cost more to build than the humble Model 3 that starts from a US$45,000 MSRP, but the reported gross margin on all vehicles across Tesla's portfolio is very healthy, tipped the electric carmaker's CFO:_​​_"For Q4, specifically, automotive gross margin, excluding credits, increased to 29.2%, which is our highest yet. We do expect to continue to see stronger operating margins as we grow our volumes and improve operating leverage. Over a longer term horizon, we are quite optimistic about the expansion of margins. From the hardware side, we are aggressively driving manufacturing innovations and operational efficiency to reduce cost."_​​_Nearly 30% gross profit margin from your immediate operations and the potential for further increases should be music to the ears of any Tesla investor. Granted, it's not Apple's 42% gross margin, but it's still a significant achievement for a company making electric cars that many others are now striving to do profitably. As per Tesla's Q4 report:_​​_"While EVs were often deemed structurally unprofitable due to expensive batteries, we were convinced that manufacturing innovation, purpose-built vehicles and factories would solve cost concerns. In Q3-2021 (the last widely reported quarter), Tesla achieved the highest operating margin across all volume OEMs. Cost (COGS) per vehicle dropped to ~$36,000 in both Q3 and Q4 2021. We believe our current projects, including large castings, structural battery pack, 4680 cells and many others, should help us continue to minimize our product cost."_​








						Tesla reveals how much a Model Y or Model 3 cost to make, reports envious profit margins
					

Tesla's gross profit margin is one of the highest in the industry, it turns out, as it costs Tesla just US$36,000 on average to build one of its electric vehicles. A healthy 29% profit margin is something many carmakers can only dream of, yet Tesla is determined to bring production costs even...




					www.notebookcheck.net


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> The financials came out a few months ago, they seemed healthy to me. Here's a short breakdown from an industry follower -
> 
> _Tesla reported blockbuster quarterly and annual earnings last week, notching its single largest net profit number of US$2.32 billion for Q4 and US$5.5 billion annual profit on $53.8 billion of revenue for 2021. That's a bit over 10% net income for the year, but the actual margin on building electric vehicles is much higher. Tucked in the latest Tesla earnings report is the tidbit that its cost of goods sold (COGS) directly attributable to the production of an electric vehicle in the second half of 2021 was US$36,000. That's how much the average Tesla car costs in parts and assembly. Needless to say, a Model S Plaid or Model Y will cost more to build than the humble Model 3 that starts from a US$45,000 MSRP, but the reported gross margin on all vehicles across Tesla's portfolio is very healthy, tipped the electric carmaker's CFO:_​​_"For Q4, specifically, automotive gross margin, excluding credits, increased to 29.2%, which is our highest yet. We do expect to continue to see stronger operating margins as we grow our volumes and improve operating leverage. Over a longer term horizon, we are quite optimistic about the expansion of margins. From the hardware side, we are aggressively driving manufacturing innovations and operational efficiency to reduce cost."_​​_Nearly 30% gross profit margin from your immediate operations and the potential for further increases should be music to the ears of any Tesla investor. Granted, it's not Apple's 42% gross margin, but it's still a significant achievement for a company making electric cars that many others are now striving to do profitably. As per Tesla's Q4 report:_​​_"While EVs were often deemed structurally unprofitable due to expensive batteries, we were convinced that manufacturing innovation, purpose-built vehicles and factories would solve cost concerns. In Q3-2021 (the last widely reported quarter), Tesla achieved the highest operating margin across all volume OEMs. Cost (COGS) per vehicle dropped to ~$36,000 in both Q3 and Q4 2021. We believe our current projects, including large castings, structural battery pack, 4680 cells and many others, should help us continue to minimize our product cost."_​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla reveals how much a Model Y or Model 3 cost to make, reports envious profit margins
> 
> 
> Tesla's gross profit margin is one of the highest in the industry, it turns out, as it costs Tesla just US$36,000 on average to build one of its electric vehicles. A healthy 29% profit margin is something many carmakers can only dream of, yet Tesla is determined to bring production costs even...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.notebookcheck.net



I suppose we could take Teslas word for it, but my scepticism of reports produced in house makes me want to wait until the financials for the year come out.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> I suppose we could take Teslas word for it, but my scepticism of reports produced in house makes me want to wait until the financials for the year come out.
> Mick






			https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/financials


----------



## mullokintyre

No


JohnDe said:


> https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/financials



Not quite detailed enough to see what their margins are.
They get a goodly amount of income from selling carbon credits, and there is no breakdown of revenue in the link from NASDAQ.
From The Driven this article refers to the last quarter of 2020, but it was the latest I could find.
The article suggests that it is becoming less of a percentage over time, but its still hard to find what the current figures are.


> Last quarter alone Tesla sold more than $US500 million worth of credits, meaning they accounted for more than 5 per cent of total revenue of $US9 billion. In recent months that has made the difference between a net profit and a net loss for the company, though it has also become a smaller and smaller percentage of total revenue as its own car sales soar.



Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> No
> 
> Not quite detailed enough to see what their margins are.
> They get a goodly amount of income from selling carbon credits, and there is no breakdown of revenue in the link from NASDAQ.
> From The Driven this article refers to the last quarter of 2020, but it was the latest I could find.
> The article suggests that it is becoming less of a percentage over time, but its still hard to find what the current figures are.
> 
> Mick




carbon credits are minimal now. Look closer, you need to go through all four tabs.

to help you out I’ve dug out the financial report that Tesla released at the end of January, which has been reported and praised by many financial experts  -









						Tesla Investor Relations
					

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Today, Tesla builds not only all-electric vehicles but also infinitely scalable clean energy generation and storage products.




					ir.tesla.com


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> carbon credits are minimal now. Look closer, you need to go through all four tabs.
> 
> to help you out I’ve dug out the financial report that Tesla released at the end of January, which has been reported and praised by many financial experts  -
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla Investor Relations
> 
> 
> Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Today, Tesla builds not only all-electric vehicles but also infinitely scalable clean energy generation and storage products.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ir.tesla.com



The four tabs in the link you provided I presume are those blue ones headed  as below





I went through them all, they are at a macro level, does not provide any breakdown of income, it shows Gross income, but nowhere could I see the breakdown of what constituted that income.
I read the very first press release  noticed that the fourth quarter production and deliveries report had the following






It would seem that the vast majority of the vehicles are model 3 and Y.
I don't know why they did not break down these figures into the various models, and then it would be obvious as to how many of the highly 
profitable heavily optioned top end models it sold.
I wonder how many of those 936,00  deliveries for the year were the bottom end model 3  versus the top end model s Plaid?
The financial report shows the  carbon credits at about 3% of Gross revenue, so it is not material.
But it does not provide any breakdowns by model, which makes it difficult to work out  how profitable each one is.
It does make good reading though, when any company is improving its financials at that rate, it is deffinitely heading in the right direction.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

> *Tesla says it is trying to keep production going at Shanghai factory*
> By Reuters Staff
> 
> SHANGHAI, March 17 (Reuters) - Tesla said on Thursday it was doing its best to keep production going at its Shanghai factory while it cooperates with China’s COVID-19 prevention measures.
> 
> Reuters reported on Wednesday that the U.S. electric vehicle maker had suspended production at its Shanghai factory for two days, according to a notice sent internally and to suppliers, as China tightens measures to curb the country’s latest outbreak.
> 
> “We are actively cooperating with the government’s requirements for nucleic acid testing and other epidemic prevention requirements, and at the same time are doing our best to ensure production, overcoming difficulties together,” the company said in a statement sent to Reuters. (Reporting by Brenda Goh and Zhang Yan; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)












						Tesla says it is trying to keep production going at Shanghai factory
					

Tesla said on Thursday it was doing its best to keep production going at its Shanghai factory while it cooperates with China's COVID-19 prevention measures.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## JohnDe

> Tesla: Elon Musk opens delayed 'gigafactory' in Berlin​
> *Tesla boss Elon Musk has opened a huge electric car "gigafactory" near Berlin which is the first European hub for the firm.*
> The plant was delayed for eight months after local authority licensing problems.
> 
> The more than €5bn (£4bn) factory is the biggest investment in a German car plant in recent history.
> 
> Tesla said more than 3,000 of the factory's expected 12,000 workers had been hired so far.
> 
> Mr Musk said: "This is a great day for the factory," describing it as "another step in the direction of a sustainable future".
> 
> German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the plant was a sign of progress and the future of the car industry.
> 
> Tesla will deliver its first 30 German-made Model Y Performance cars on Tuesday. The firm says the cars have a 514km (320 mile) range and cost €63,990 (£53,000).
> 
> At full capacity, the plant will produce 500,000 cars annually - more than the 450,000 battery-electric vehicles that German rival Volkswagen sold globally in 2021


----------



## JohnDe

> EV Buyers Only Want a Tesla (TSLA) and Demand is 'Monstrous' - Chowdhry​Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) bull Trip Chowdhry continues to pound the table on the stock amid what he has been calling "monstrous demand."
> 
> According to Chowdhry, customers don't want to buy just any EV; they only want a Tesla. "The customer only wants to buy TSLA and nothing else," he said.
> 
> The analyst also again compared Tesla to Apple, saying Tesla is an experiential product, which at one time Apple was an experiential product. He said every day a Tesla vehicle feels like a new vehicle. "No other company has the capability to create experiences like TSLA can," he commented.
> 
> Chowdhry also highlighted news that Hertz will add Tesla Model Y's to the fleet, another sign of the "monstrous demand."
> 
> He reiterated his Overweight rating and $1500 price target on TSLA.


----------



## mullokintyre

Tesla shares pop a quick 5% after Teslas tweets it wants to issue more shares to enable a stock split.
From Zero hedge



> Despite the fact that increasing the share count does little to nothing to add value to the underlying business, Tesla stock shot up by 5% after the news was announced, following a trend it set the _last time _the company split its stock and immediately saw it rise.
> Just moments ago we reported that Tesla stock had its best 7 day stretch since 2021, despite what appears to be mounting tensions between CEO Elon Musk and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
> 
> The run up in shares of Tesla came amidst a broader market rally and despite the fact that CEO Elon Musk faces mounting tensions with regulators. As we've reported over the last month, Musk is jousting with the SEC about whether or not he should still be beholden to his 2018 settlement agreement with the agency which required a "Twitter sitter" to review all of Musk's online communications.
> 
> The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has said Musk has not met the "high burden" necessary to throw out the 2018 consent decree he is under, according to Reuters. Musk found compliance "less convenient than he had hoped," the SEC argued, adding that "when it comes to civil settlements, a deal is a deal, absent far more compelling circumstances than are here presented."



Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Tesla shares pop a quick 5% after Teslas tweets it wants to issue more shares to enable a stock split.
> From Zero hedge
> 
> 
> Mick




Worked out quite well when they did that last time. The main idea is to keep the share price affordable, especially for employees who take up the option of the SPP as part of their pay benefits.

Another reason for the price rise over the past week could be the numbers -


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> Worked out quite well when they did that last time. The main idea is to keep the share price affordable, especially for employees who take up the option of the SPP as part of their pay benefits.
> 
> Another reason for the price rise over the past week could be the numbers -
> 
> 
> View attachment 139632
> 
> 
> View attachment 139633



Maybe they need to do a 1000 for 1 stock split, so the share price drops to $1 and they will never have to worry about stock splits again.

I always wonder why American companies seem to hate having share prices under $100, but then rush to split when it hits $500 or $1000, resulting in some companies regularly doing splits (every 5 or 10 years of so).

I have no idea why they just don’t do a low share price eg $1, to begin with and not have to worry about another split for 100 years or so.


----------



## JohnDe

Value Collector said:


> Maybe they need to do a 1000 for 1 stock split, so the share price drops to $1 and they will never have to worry about stock splits again.
> 
> I always wonder why American companies seem to hate having share prices under $100, but then rush to split when it hits $500 or $1000, resulting in some companies regularly doing splits (every 5 or 10 years of so).
> 
> I have no idea why they just don’t do a low share price eg $1, to begin with and not have to worry about another split for 100 years or so.




When I read your post my first thought was, 'if the SP is dropped too low it could create a snowball affect of trader activity which adds no value and undermines long term investors.



> *Disadvantages of Stock Splits*
> 
> 3. They May Attract the Wrong Type of Investor
> Warren Buffett isn’t only known for his incredible and unprecedented investing success but also as the CEO and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, one of the most valuable companies by market capitalization in the world. One unique characteristic of Berkshire’s stock is that its Class A shares are by far the most expensive stock in the world trading at a whopping $430.000 per share as of October 21.
> 
> Clearly, not everyone would be able to buy class A shares because of that prestigious price to buy one single share. But why exactly has Warren Buffett decided to not split the stock a single time in its history?
> 
> In Berkshire’s letter to shareholders of 1984, Buffett wrote that he isn’t intending to split Berkshire’s stock.
> 
> The primary reasoning behind Buffett’s intention is that he views his shareholders as partners who are committed to the long-term success and performance of the company. As a consequence, he would rather prefer long-term partners instead of day-to-day investors that buy and sell the stock in short periods just like any other stock.
> 
> If the company agreed to split the BRK-A shares multiple times in the company’s history, they would now trade at affordable prices entries that could have allowed any investor and trader to get in and out of the company.
> 
> The high price of class A shares at which they trade today will make most investors think through their investment thoroughly before they decide to invest in the company.


----------



## CityIndex

JohnDe said:


> Worked out quite well when they did that last time.



It definitely did, the last one was in August 2020, the year $TSLA rallied over 700%. 

Today's news helped the stock back into the green YTD, and saw Telsa add more than Ford's entire market cap to their value. All trading carries risk, and although it will likely be down to what broader market sentiment is like, it should be interesting to see if $TSLA can repeat its 2020 performance if the stock split does go ahead.


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> When I read your post my first thought was, 'if the SP is dropped too low it could create a snowball affect of trader activity which adds no value and undermines long term investors.



How would it do that? plenty of shares trade on the Australian market for less than $50, and many for less than that with no effect.
in fact as you stated the intent of a stock split is to increase trading, by allowing smaller trades to go through, eg if a share is $10,000 then the smallest trading parcel is going to be 1 share at $10,000, but if you want to let people invest smaller amounts of say $1000, you need to have a lower share price.

But what I am suggesting is reduce the share price to $1, and then just let it grow from there and never do another stock split again, (for 50 years or so at least) doing a stock split only back to $200 or so seems crazy to me, because in the Australian market $200 is already considered a large share price, but in the USA there is a stigma about share prices of $1 or so, but I just don't understand why, it seems like common sense to me to start small, and avoid constant splits.

----------
I understand Buffetts reasons for avoiding stock splits, and generally agree with him, I am a Berkshire shareholder and have read all Berkshire letters going back to 1977, I would have split Berkshire class A every time it hit $20,000 and brought it back to $1, that way I would have only had to do 1 stock split in the 60 year history, rather than every 5 or 10 years like some companies.

I believe Warrens main reason for not splitting the class A is personal, its a life long game to see how high he can get this stock that he bought for $6 back in the 1960's


----------



## JohnDe

Value Collector said:


> How would it do that? plenty of shares trade on the Australian market for less than $50, and many for less than that with no effect.
> in fact as you stated the intent of a stock split is to increase trading, by allowing smaller trades to go through, eg if a share is $10,000 then the smallest trading parcel is going to be 1 share at $10,000, but if you want to let people invest smaller amounts of say $1000, you need to have a lower share price.
> 
> But what I am suggesting is reduce the share price to $1, and then just let it grow from there and never do another stock split again, (for 50 years or so at least) doing a stock split only back to $200 or so seems crazy to me, because in the Australian market $200 is already considered a large share price, but in the USA there is a stigma about share prices of $1 or so, but I just don't understand why, it seems like common sense to me to start small, and avoid constant splits.




I was just sharing my initial thoughts, and I attached reasoning from another source.

In my mind, dropping the SP from $1000 to $1.00 has got to have some negative side affects. If not, why don't all the companies bring their price down into penny stock territory?

The US share system is a lot bigger than the Australian, many penny stocks in the US are in the $'s. Inflation doesn't just affect the money in your pocket or bank, it also affect the price of shares.









						Pros and Cons of Splitting a Stock - Cliffcore
					

After a stock split, each existing share within a company is divided into multiple additional shares. As a consequence, the company’s share count increases while the price of one single share decreases in proportion to the number the stock is split into. As an example, let’s suppose that a...




					cliffcore.com


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> I was just sharing my initial thoughts, and I attached reasoning from another source.
> 
> In my mind, dropping the SP from $1000 to $1.00 has got to have some negative side affects. If not, why don't all the companies bring their price down into penny stock territory?



As I mentioned in my post above, I understand the Berkshire case, I have been a buffett follower for over a decade and have pretty much read everything he has written publicly.

There is no difference between buying 1 share for $1000 or 1000 shares for $1000, either way you have made the same investment.

If Tesla had split back to $1 last time, the share price would be $5 now, and there would be no need to worry about another split, even if it went up 10x higher to $50, still no need to split.

The only reason to split is if you feel that the share price is high enough that your target market will have trouble purchasing a share, So I agree once it gets over $1000 you will begin to lock out some smaller investors, but there is no bad side affects to having a $1 share price except for stigma, and if you company is truly growing, it won't stay a $1 for long.


----------



## JohnDe

Value Collector said:


> As I mentioned in my post above, I understand the Berkshire case, I have been a buffett follower for over a decade and have pretty much read everything he has written publicly.
> 
> There is no difference between buying 1 share for $1000 or 1000 shares for $1000, either way you have made the same investment.
> 
> If Tesla had split back to $1 last time, the share price would be $5 now, and there would be the need to worry about another split, even if it went up 10x higher to $50, still no need to split.
> 
> The only reason to split is if you feel that the share price is high enough that your target market will have trouble purchasing a share, So I agree once it gets over $1000 you will begin to lock out some smaller investors, but there is no bad side affects to having a $1 share price except for stigma, and if you company is truly growing, it won't stay a $1 for long.




I am like you, we are not qualified stock analysts. My answer was just a thought bubble, just like your question.

Why don't companies drop their share price from $1000 to a $1.00? Maybe because it leaves no reserve for events like market crashes, maybe the SP is equivalent to two stock analysts rocking up to a client in a pimped Holden Viva or a Genesis. Which would most clients feel comfortable with?

I don't know, I'm just throwing ideas out there.

If you already have an answer to your question, post it.


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> I am like you, we are not qualified stock analysts. My answer was just a thought bubble, just like your question.



I would say I am a fairly qualified stock analyst, investing is my full time profession, my long term passion and the subject of 25 years of consistent study and practical experience.




> Why don't companies drop their share price from $1000 to a $1.00? Maybe because it leaves no reserve for events like market crashes,




Considering a share can trade as low as $0.01 it share price can crash a long way before its low share price will hurt liquidity, secondly it can always to the opposite of a stock split and adjust its price upwards if it really needed to, which would happen less often.



> maybe the SP is equivalent to two stock analysts rocking up to a client in a pimped Holden Viva or a Genesis. Which would most clients feel comfortable with?




Well, Berkshire Hathaway was once $6 and is now $539,000 so I don't think the share price beginning price tells you anything, 

I



> If you already have an answer to your question, post it.




My answer is simply that high share prices are simply window dressing, it would have been far more practical for companies to have lower starting share prices than higher ones, as I said if Tesla had adjusted their share price back to $1 or even $10 at the last stock split they would have to go to the expense of doing it again so soon. 

I would suggest either adjust it to a lower level that won't need further adjustment so soon, or don't worry about it till it gets to $10,000 or so.

These are just my opinions, I just hate companies fiddling with share prices, the general rule should be to just let the share price be what it will be, and if you are worried about liquidity, choose a low starting point that wouldn't require constant adjustments.


----------



## JohnDe

Value Collector said:


> I would say I am a fairly qualified stock analyst, investing is my full time profession, my long term passion and the subject of 25 years of consistent study and practical experience.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Considering a share can trade as low as $0.01 it share price can crash a long way before its low share price will hurt liquidity, secondly it can always to the opposite of a stock split and adjust its price upwards if it really needed to, which would happen less often.
> 
> 
> 
> Well, Berkshire Hathaway was once $6 and is now $539,000 so I don't think the share price beginning price tells you anything,
> 
> I
> 
> 
> 
> My answer is simply that high share prices are simply window dressing, it would have been far more practical for companies to have lower starting share prices than higher ones, as I said if Tesla had adjusted their share price back to $1 or even $10 at the last stock split they would have to go to the expense of doing it again so soon.
> 
> I would suggest either adjust it to a lower level that won't need further adjustment so soon, or don't worry about it till it gets to $10,000 or so.
> 
> These are just my opinions, I just hate companies fiddling with share prices, the general rule should be to just let the share price be what it will be, and if you are worried about liquidity, choose a low starting point that wouldn't require constant adjustments.




Well if you’re qualified, then you already know the answer to your wondering.

And if you’re qualified, What was the point of wondering out aloud if you’re not going to like a comment that doesn’t fit your understanding?



> I always wonder why American companies seem to hate having share prices under $100, but then rush to split when it hits $500 or $1000, resulting in some companies regularly doing splits (every 5 or 10 years of so).
> 
> I have no idea why they just don’t do a low share price eg $1, to begin with and not have to worry about another split for 100 years or so.


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> Well if you’re qualified, then you already know the answer to your wondering.



You can be a qualified Plumber and still wonder why other plumbers make certain decisions that don't make sense to you, it's not like all plumbers (or board members)  are operating perfectly all the time, and who knows maybe someone could end up explaining a rational reason to me and I learn something.

I don't think being qualified in a particular field lets you read the minds of all the other practitioners in that field.



> And if you’re qualified, What was the point of wondering out aloud if you’re not going to like a comment that doesn’t fit your understanding?



Firstly who said I didn't like a comment? 

Secondly,  as I said above there is a chance some one might explain something knew to me and I learn something, or some one reads my comment and they get put on a thought process and they learn something.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## JohnDe

First 5 Model Y performances from Berlin that are being delivered outside of Germany.  It Happened today in Aarhus, Denmark. Wait time for the Model Y is now a few months, compared to the equivalent Audi which is 12 months


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## mullokintyre

Elon Musk has given an update on the Tesla Cybertruck.
From Slash Gear


> Tesla chief Elon Musk has announced that the long-delayed Cybertruck will finally enter production next year. However, he didn't confirm if the updated production timeline also means buyers on the pre-order list will get their hands on the angular electric vehicle in 2023. Taking the stage at Tesla's Cyber Rodeo opening party for the Giga Texas factory, Musk also revealed some hardware updates for the Cybertruck. The door handles are gone, which might sound like a worrying omission, but Musk promises that the car will know when users are around, apparently using the same camera-powered environmental awareness tech that is already available on Tesla cars with features like Sentry mode.
> 
> However, Tesla's boxy electric truck still doesn't look production-ready. The prototype up for exhibit at the event had airbags missing from the yoke, panels were misaligned with a visible gap, and the position of side-view cameras also appears to have been changed. Tesla plans to build the Cybertruck at the Giga Texas factory, which now serves as the brand's headquarters too. "We can't wait to build this here. Sorry for the delay. But you're going to have this next year, and it's really going to be great." Musk also joked about smashing the window on the updated Cybertruck prototype, bringing back memories of the on-stage fail for the supposedly unbreakable window that lost a battle with a hammer in 2019.



Although Rivian has already started deliveries of the R1T and thus got the drop on Tesla, it only produced 2300  Ev's of all forms Q1  2022.
Even when it gets into full production at its Factory in Normal  (what a great name for a town!),  it will  still only produce 25,000 EV's for the year. if all goes according to plan. It will ramp up further, but will it be too late?



> Rivian’s current footprint in Normal will be able to produce 150,000 EVs a year by 2023, and expansions are already in the works to increase that capacity to 200,000 vehicles. A second facility should help too. Last December, Rivian announced an additional plant is coming to Georgia that will eventually produce 400,000 vehicles annually.



The electric  Ford F150 Lightning,  has also started production and deliveries, but it is going to have to seriously ramp up production if it plans to replace all F150's with an electric version.
According to Ford, it sold 726,000 F series trucks last year, of which nearly 500,000 were the F150 variant.
Ford had originally targeted  production at 80,000 per year initially, but due to receiving about 300,000 reservations, doubled planned production to achieve 150,000 F150 Ev's by mid 2023.
Should be interesting to see how many of the rednecks get attracted to an Electric F150.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

TSLA shares may not have factored in the closure of the Shanghai plant.
From Zero Hedge


> With all of the chaos taking place in Shanghai as a result of a new round of mysteriously overbearing Covid lockdowns, there has been very little attention paid to Tesla's current plant shut down and the effect it may have on the company's operating results.
> 
> But analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research is forcing that issue into the spotlight, writing in a note to clients on Monday that on the ground contacts are telling his firm that Shanghai may be closed for a prolonged amount of time.
> 
> "In discussions last evening with one of our on-the-ground contacts in China, we were told TSLA’s Shanghai plant will be down until 'at least' mid-May (and not fully-ramped up until 'late 3Q22’ – yes, you heard that right)," Johnson wrote.
> He continued: "More specifically, our Shanghai contact says due to TSLA’s plant: (a) being a non critical factory (i.e., not food, medicine and military), and (b) mixing people from multiple districts, which is strictly forbidden because then every district would have to go on lockdown, it will not be given priority vs. other more critical plants."
> 
> Johnson told clients he did _not _think that the closure had been priced into the company's stock or models: "More to the above, in our conversations this evening, our contact, who is a supplier to TSLA, expressed their view that it will take 2-to-3 days to fully re-ramp the factory for each day it is closed. Consequently, in short, with the Street modeling TSLA’s sales/EPS growing from $17.8bn/$2.72 in 1Q22 to $19.597bn/$2.50 in 2Q22, we DO NOT believe this news is priced in (our contact believes TSLA could lose money in 2Q22 vs. the current Consensus est. that they will deliver $2.50/shr in EPS [or $2.873bn in net income])."
> 
> GLJ's contact in China, when asked if the factory will close longer than just through the end of April, said:
> 
> _"Yes, it will shut for a minimum of 4-6 more weeks and most likely at least June 1 absent recession of the Dynamic Zero Covid policy. I also expect re-ramp to take 2-3 days for every day the factory is closed. So a closure through May won’t have Shanghai back to full production until late Q3. It’s a non critical factory (food, medicine and military) and mixing people from multiple districts is strictly forbidden because then every district would have to go on lockdown. My best case estimate for Q1 production is 190k. And that’s based on a mid May open. I fully expect the quarter to come on around 160k and be a loss._”
> Johnson says he thinks that Tesla's Shanghai plant is >100% of the company's profit and, if this becomes obvious, that the views around Tesla's other factories' efficiency may come under pressure.



Reading some of GLJ musings on Tesla, he may have some negative bias towards Tesla, so it may be prident to down grade some of his assessment.
However, the closure, however long it goes on for, will definitely have an impact on  Teslas profitability.
The question is, just how much.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> TSLA shares may not have factored in the closure of the Shanghai plant.
> From Zero Hedge
> 
> Reading some of GLJ musings on Tesla, he may have some negative bias towards Tesla, so it may be prident to down grade some of his assessment.
> However, the closure, however long it goes on for, will definitely have an impact on  Teslas profitability.
> The question is, just how much.
> Mick




Yes, it is going to be hard for TSLA with its strongest factory in shutdown. Have Texas may help, but investors are a finicky bunch.

Tesla Inc. exported just 60 cars produced at its Shanghai factory in March, a record low as strong domestic demand sucked up most of the output, according to China Passenger Car Association data released Monday.​​The U.S.-based maker of EVs shipped a total of 65,814 cars from its factory in China’s financial hub last month, with the bulk of those -- 65,754 -- going to the domestic market.​


			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## JohnDe

Looks like they pulled off another increase even with "challenges with supplies and the closures of its Shanghai plant".



> *Deliveries up 68% on 2021 with 310,048 vehicles produced to the end of March*
> 13 Apr 2022
> 
> THERE seems no end to Tesla’ momentum – the Californian-based electric vehicle producer has set another quarterly delivery record despite ongoing market challenges.
> 
> For the first quarter of 2022, Tesla delivered 310,048 units – 68 per cent more than it achieved in the same period of 2021.
> 
> The production figures included some 295,324 Model 3 and Model Y variants, while the remaining 14,724 comprised of Model S and Model X variants. By contrast, Tesla produced 180,338 units between January 1 and March 31, 2021.
> 
> Speaking to US publication _Money Transfers_, Trading Platforms’ CEO Jonathan Merry said: “Tesla’s Q1 2022 performance is more impressive considering the testing environment it has been operating under.
> 
> “It has had challenges with supplies and the closures of its Shanghai plant. One would expect these to impact its numbers; if it has, it’s minimal, which speaks volumes of Tesla’s resilience.”
> 
> Tesla appears to stand alone in the US market where competitors including GM, Audi and Kia are in decline. General Motors delivered just 457 electric vehicles in Q1 2022 and recalled thousands of its Bolt electric models due to battery issues.
> 
> Conversely, BMW reported marginal gains in US sales across Q1, while Hyundai reported a massive 241 per cent increase in the sale of its battery-electric models.


----------



## mullokintyre

At the risk of upsetting the Teska afficonados,  the following youtube video bdoes not out them in a good light.

Its lengthy, but the guy has some serious street cred amongst the DIY community.
Probably less amongst the non techs.
Mick


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> At the risk of upsetting the Teska afficonados,  the following youtube video bdoes not out them in a good light.
> 
> Its lengthy, but the guy has some serious street cred amongst the DIY community.
> Probably less amongst the non techs.
> Mick




I don’t think I would touch a car that’s been put together from two written off cars, I support the guy having a hobby, but I my Dad was a panel beater and growing I constantly had it drummed into to me to never buy a car that’s been written off, I certainly wouldn’t want a Tesla pieced together like that.

But as I said I support him doing it, but I can also see why Tesla wouldn’t be that comfortable with it also, since it’s their brand on the line every time a bad news article hits the head lines.


----------



## mullokintyre

Well, thats interesting, as my Dad was also a panel beater.
These days, being written off  does not mean what it used to.
The cost of labor , spare parts, paints solvents, and most importantly the airbag replacement, can write off a car with minimal damage.
Just been watching a Utube vid of Robbie Layton  rebuilding a Toyota Fourrunner written off by the insurance company after hitting a deer which had got into the front RHS wheel well .
Was not a lot of obvious damage externally, but this car had every single airbag go off, both front and rear, a total of 11 air bags to be replaced, as well as the two front explosive lockup mechanisms in the front seat belts.
That was the knockout blow, as the headliner had to be removed, the complete dash, the seats had to be cut open, new side airbags installed and then reupholstered. The amount of labour alone would have made it a write off.
I guess a Tesla may well be in a similar position if it hit a deer and set off all the airbags.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

The  Dreaded Murdoch Press reports on a record tesla profit.


> Tesla reported record quarterly profit as consumers snap up the company’s electric vehicles, though production disruptions in China and inflationary pressures signal a bumpier road ahead.
> The automaker said first-quarter sales jumped roughly 80 per cent to $US18.76bn, generating a profit of $US3.32bn. Wall Street expected the company to report roughly $US2.2bn in first-quarter profit on around $US17.7bn in sales, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet.
> 
> The world’s largest car company by value is recovering from a shutdown at its Shanghai factory, where work was suspended March 28 because of strict government measures meant to slow the spread of Covid-19.
> The closure, which dented first-quarter output, is likely to take a bigger toll in the second quarter, reducing the company’s output by roughly 90,000 vehicles, Credit Suisse forecast. That estimate assumes the factory, which had become Tesla’s largest by output, will be operating at reduced levels in the coming weeks. The company confirmed Wednesday that it had resumed limited production in Shanghai.
> 
> Tesla, which made roughly 930,000 vehicles last year, reiterated that it is aiming to boost deliveries by an average 50 per cent annually. However, factories are likely to continue operating below capacity through 2022, due largely to supply chain bottlenecks, it said.
> Tesla delivered around 310,000 vehicles globally in the first quarter, up from 184,877 a year earlier and 308,650 in the fourth quarter. Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted earlier this month that supply chain interruptions and China’s Covid-19 measures had made the period exceptionally difficult.
> 
> Tesla shares closed down nearly 5 per cent Wednesday, before advancing more than 4 per cent in late trading after the company posted its quarterly results.



That  record profit of 2,2bill for the quarter would have paid for Musks foray into  the land of the twits.
A few more quarters like this and he will be able to buy it lock stock and barrell.
Mick


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> The  Dreaded Murdoch Press reports on a record tesla profit.
> 
> That  record profit of 2,2bill for the quarter would have paid for Musks foray into  the land of the twits.
> A few more quarters like this and he will be able to buy it lock stock and barrell.
> Mick



Musks investment into Twitter is in his own account, not on Teslas, and since Tesla doesn’t pay a dividend Teslas profits can’t help him buy Twitter.

For Musk to purchase Twitter he either has to sell some of his Tesla shares (or some of his space ex shares), or borrow the money using his Tesla stock as collateral.

Musk also only owns 17% of Tesla, so only a fraction of the profit is his.


----------



## pozindustrial

mullokintyre said:


> The  Dreaded Murdoch Press reports on a record tesla profit.
> 
> That  record profit of 2,2bill for the quarter would have paid for Musks foray into  the land of the twits.
> A few more quarters like this and he will be able to buy it lock stock and barrell.
> Mick



Giga Shanghai has begun full production again with 8000 workers


----------



## JohnDe

> Tesla just reported first-quarter earnings for 2022 and beat analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. Here are the key numbers.
> 
> 
> *Earnings per share:* $3.22 vs $2.26 expected
> *Revenue:* $18.76 billion vs $17.80 billion expected
> Automotive revenue reached $16.86 billion, up 87% from the same period last year. Automotive gross margins jumped to a record 32.9% with Tesla reporting gross profit of $5.54 billion in its main segment. Regulatory credits accounted for $679 million of automotive revenue for the quarter.
> 
> Revenue growth was driven in part by an increase in the number of cars Tesla delivered, and an increase in average sales prices, the company said in its shareholder deck.
> 
> Early this month, Tesla reported vehicle deliveries of 310,048 for the first quarter, the closest approximation of sales disclosed by the company. Model 3 and Model Y vehicles comprised 95%, or 295,324, of deliveries in the period ending March 31, 2022.
> 
> On the company's earnings call, CFO Zachary Kirkhorn and CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla remains confident that it can grow at least 50% over 2021 numbers. However, the execs noted that the company has lost about a month of "build volume" in Shanghai due to Covid-related shutdowns.
> 
> "Production is resuming at limited levels, and we're working to get back to full production as quickly as possible," Kirkhorn said.


----------



## rederob

This was headline that grabbed my attention most:
Tesla Crushes Earnings Estimates. Wall Street Is ‘Speechless.’​Despite supply chain issues - although maybe not as severe as for some other manufacturers - Tesla continues to ramp up production across all its sites.  In fact *Berlin *will ramp faster than Shanghai, which shows how Tesla drives home its industry advantages in constantly improving on all previous performance. 

More concerning for legacy automakers is that while Tesla can still put up its prices to counter inflation etc., it is able to do this *and *achieve  continuing rising demand, which is opposite to those still stuck in the ICE age, as Sam Evans has been regularly pointing out since starting his YouTube channel less than a year ago:


----------



## basilio

Of course the biggest winner from Teslas outstanding quarterly results is .....

*Elon Musk  *He now stands to  take home a  *$23Billion bonus. *How did this happen? Check out the two stories around the unique bonus deal that has made Elon the richest person in the world.

Elon Musk lines up $55bn payday – the world's biggest bonus​This article is more than 4 years old
Musk will become planet’s richest man if he turns Tesla into a $650bn business in a decade





Elon Musk has agreed to work unpaid for a decade, after which he would be paid $55.8bn if Tesla becomes a $650bn company. Photograph: Tesla Handout/EPA

Rupert Neate Wealth correspondent

@RupertNeate
*Tue 23 Jan 2018* 15.39 GMTLast modified on Wed 21 Mar 2018 17.25 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/technol...aiming-for-worlds-biggest-bonus-40bn#comments
882
Elon Musk, the founder and chief executive of electric car company Tesla, would smash all pay records and become the richest man in the world if an extraordinarily ambitious new incentive scheme pays out.

The 46-year-old entrepreneur, who is already a multi-billionaire, has agreed to work unpaid for the next 10 years – after which he would collect an unprecedented $55.8bn (£40bn) bonus if builds the 14-year-old business into a $650bn company within a decade.










						Elon Musk lines up $55bn payday – the world's biggest bonus
					

Musk will become planet’s richest man if he turns Tesla into a $650bn business in a decade




					www.theguardian.com
				



Elon Musk poised to collect $23bn bonus as Tesla beats targets​Electric car giant’s CEO says he is not in talks on new bonus scheme after completing 2018 deal early

*Tesla has another record quarter*





Elon Musk is thought to have a personal fortune worth $249bn. Photograph: Reuters

Rupert Neate Wealth correspondent

@RupertNeate
Thu 21 Apr 2022 10.42 BSTLast modified on Fri 22 Apr 2022 00.01 BST


Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla and the world’s richest person, is set to collect a $23bn (£17.6bn) bonus after the electric car company’s reported record quarterly profits.

Musk, who is already sitting on an estimated $249bn fortune, is in line for the bonus share payout after Tesla hit share price and financial growth milestones in its earnings on Wednesday night.

Tesla made an adjusted profit of $5bn on revenue of $18.8bn in the first quarter of the year, an 81% increase on the same period a year earlier. The results, combined with the growth in Tesla’s share price performance, mean Musk has hit targets that should lead to a bonus share payout worth about $23bn.

The company outlined an extraordinary deal for Musk in 2018 that would pay him an unprecedented record $55.8bn (£40bn) bonus if he built the business into a $650bn company within a decade.

He achieved that milestone early, in January 2020. Tesla today has a market value of $1.1tn, after a 1,600% rise in its share price since the target was set in January 2018. The shares jumped 11% in early trading on Thursday to $10.60.

It means Musk, who collects no salary from Tesla, should now have unlocked the final three parts of the 12-tranche bonus scheme. Each tranche gives Musk the right to buy 8.4m Tesla shares at $70, a huge discount on the current $977 price of the stock. His profit on each tranche could be $7.7bn, or a combined value of $23bn. The payments need to be signed off by the board, and he must hold on to the shares for five years before selling.









						Elon Musk poised to collect $23bn bonus as Tesla beats targets
					

Electric car giant’s CEO says he is not in talks on new bonus scheme after completing 2018 deal early




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## mullokintyre

From Electrek


> A Tesla vehicle was caught on video crashing into a $3.5M Cirrus Vision jet after being ‘summoned’ in a dangerous way by the owner.
> Smart Summon builds on Tesla’s previous “Summon” feature, which was used by owners to move their cars autonomously for a few feet in their driveway or in tight parking situations. With the new version, owners are able to Summon their Tesla vehicles from further away, and the cars will navigate more complex parking environments.
> 
> CEO Elon Musk described Smart Summon as “Tesla’s most viral feature.”




Mick


----------



## sptrawler

mullokintyre said:


> Well, thats interesting, as my Dad was also a panel beater.
> These days, being written off  does not mean what it used to.
> The cost of labor , spare parts, paints solvents, and most importantly the airbag replacement, can write off a car with minimal damage.
> Just been watching a Utube vid of Robbie Layton  rebuilding a Toyota Fourrunner written off by the insurance company after hitting a deer which had got into the front RHS wheel well .
> Was not a lot of obvious damage externally, but this car had every single airbag go off, both front and rear, a total of 11 air bags to be replaced, as well as the two front explosive lockup mechanisms in the front seat belts.
> That was the knockout blow, as the headliner had to be removed, the complete dash, the seats had to be cut open, new side airbags installed and then reupholstered. The amount of labour alone would have made it a write off.
> I guess a Tesla may well be in a similar position if it hit a deer and set off all the airbags.
> Mick



Well the LED headlight assembly on my car apparently are $3,000 each, so writing off a car these days would be easy, yet we are moving to a more sustainable model, don't you just love it. Feed the chooks. Lol


----------



## noirua

Elon Musk sells $4B in Tesla stock, announces no further sales planned​








						Elon Musk sells $4B in Tesla stock, announces no further sales planned
					

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who made waves this week when the Twitter board agreed to accept his buyout deal, announced he had sold $4.4 billion in Tesla shares Thursday, announcing that he would make no more sales after that day.




					www.foxbusiness.com


----------



## JohnDe

"_Tesla is likely looking to expand to other parts of East Asia. The two most likely countries to receive a Gigafactory would be Japan or South Korea._" 
As a country if we stopped looking inwards and started believing in a future, Australia could have a Gigafactory. We have several great locations, on the East coast all the way to Geelong. Sadly it will never happen because we're too political and too defeatist.

Current and Upcoming Tesla Gigafactories​To say that Tesla has big plans for its Gigafactory idea would be an understatement. It may not be long until we see such factories all over the world. The foundations, so to speak, have been laid, and the potential is clear. Learn about the current Gigafactories that are up and running, those under construction, and where new ones may show up in the future.​​Giga Nevada​As mentioned above, Tesla already has a Gigafactory up and running in Nevada. It’s located in Sparks, Nevada, just outside of Reno. The factory has been open since 2016 and continues to grow. When it first opened, Tesla promised it would provide more than 6,000 jobs while providing more than 100 billion dollars to the local economy. Tesla also said that the factory would eventually generate 35 gigawatt-hours worth of batteries. So far, it appears Tesla has made good on those promises, such as employing more than 7,000 people on-site.​​Plans are for the factory to continue expanding. There are indications that Tesla would like to move some of their semi manufacturing to the Nevada factory. Tesla doesn’t even fully utilize the facility yet, with some of its space leased to other companies like Panasonic. One can’t help but feel excitement for what the Gigafactory will look like when it’s complete.​​Giga New York​The other fully running Gigafactory in the United States is located in Buffalo, New York. Unlike other Gigafactories Tesla has built and plans to build, this facility has a narrower focus. The 1.2 million square foot Tesla factory only works on solar energy products. You’ll find no electric vehicles here. Their production of solar energy items started back in 2017 with a focus on solar cells. Years later, Tesla added more elements to their production lines, including the components for energy storage products.​​This Gigafactory appears to have a bit smaller scale compared to others. The facility originally belonged to a steel manufacturing company before switching over to Tesla’s unique products. Tesla plans to create more than 5,000 jobs in the state of New York over the course of a decade. *The company hopes to turn Buffalo into a center for sustainable energy production.*​​Giga Shanghai​Many people look at the Shanghai Tesla Gigafactory as the ultimate example of what Elon Musk envisioned. With little red tape in China and fewer environmental considerations, Tesla constructed the factory in only 168 days. At the start of production in Giga Shanghai in 2020, Tesla made about 4,000 Model 3s every week. About a year later, Tesla has almost doubled their level of production, giving support to how achievable the Gigafactory goals are. *Tesla is optimistic it can make 450,000 vehicles every year in Giga Shanghai.*​​The factory has proven to be incredibly successful at meeting demand, at least for the time being. In fact, Tesla has stated that the output at the Gigafactory could lead to shipping finished vehicles to meet Europe’s demands, too. The company is happy with the results from China and even plans to open a research and development facility there.​​Giga Berlin​The Gigafactory in Berlin has had its fair share of bumps in the road. The factory had an original construction completion date in the summer of 2021, but it has since suffered some delays. According to Elon Musk, much of the blame is due to bureaucratic issues with the German government. Many of the delays are related to environmental laws. With the factory being built near a nature preserve, it’s understandable that many in the area would be concerned about environmental impact, even if it is an electrical vehicle production plant.​​Those delays could soon come to an end. At a dinner party featuring 9,000 people, Musk announced that vehicles will begin rolling out of the factory in November 2021, meaning production is already underway. Tesla has yet to complete construction fully, but the facility can still produce Tesla products.​​This will be the first Tesla Gigafactory in Europe and will produce the Tesla Model Y vehicle. It’s scheduled to finish construction in April 2022, though further work and expansion will likely occur after that date. The company has even submitted plans for a Tesla battery factory next to the Gigafactory, meaning the future is bright for Tesla in Europe.​​Giga Texas​The Tesla Texas Gigafactory is another facility under construction. Announced in July 2020, the Austin, Texas, construction has progressed rapidly. The site is about 2,500 acres in area and is intended to produce several types of electric vehicles in Tesla’s fleet. One of those vehicles is the much-hyped Tesla Cybertruck. Giga Texas will be the first factory to produce this truck, meaning Tesla can finally start fulfilling preorders.​​While some manufacturing has taken place at the facility, much of it is limited. *Giga Texas will soon fully fire up its production line for stage one of the plan. *So consumers can expect to see even more Tesla vehicles on the road soon.​​Rumored Gigafactories​
*Giga UK: *Tesla apparently reached out to people in the UK about building a Gigafactory there. However, no concrete information has come out to the public so far.
*Giga India:* Recently, Tesla established a business unit in India, leading many to speculate about the company building a Gigafactory in the country. The move would make business sense as it would decrease or eliminate import duties for shipments to parts of South Asia.
*Giga Asia: *With the success of Giga Shanghai, Tesla is likely looking to expand to other parts of East Asia. The two most likely countries to receive a Gigafactory would be Japan or South Korea.
Takeaways From the Tesla Gigafactory Idea​When looking at the Tesla Gigafactory, it’s easy to get stuck on the sheer size of the thing. Yes, the factory is massive, but it represents much more than size. If anything, *the idea represents progress in manufacturing and production* that the world hasn’t seen in decades. Here are some key takeaways from Tesla’s Gigafactories.​​1. Vertical Integration​Every corporation has the dream of keeping everything in-house. That’s the goal of vertical integration. When you control every part of the production process, you have tighter control over product quality and cost. It also saves companies money from what they would have spent on outside resources and clients. *The Gigafactory ensures Tesla has total control over everything and can make changes when necessary without much of a hassle.*​​2. First-Principles Thinking in Action​It’s part of *Elon Musk’s leadership style* to engage in first-principles thinking. The key to this type of thinking is to always ask “why.” It’s a matter of reverse engineering what many people assume to be true. Just because something is the status quo doesn’t mean it has to be like that.​​The Tesla Gigafactory takes a tried and true process and asks why it’s done that way. *With first-principles thinking, you work backward and create new and better systems.* The result can sometimes be something as radically different as a factory with the floor space to hold nearly a hundred football fields.​​3. Innovating for the Customer​Perhaps the most important takeaway of the Gigafactory is the potential for innovation it provides for the customer. One way customers stand to benefit is from *price reductions.* Many modern conveniences we enjoy today would have been unaffordable mere decades ago. The same may hold true for Tesla vehicles if the company follows through with the promises of their Gigafactories.​​Just think of how much could change if Model 3s, Ys, and future vehicles become affordable to the average shopper.​​The main difficulty Tesla has had comes from production. The demand is there, but the company can’t produce cars fast enough. The Gigafactory may be able to solve this problem, giving Tesla more room to breathe and get their products out to more people. If they’re able to solve this problem, they can create more products with the potential to transform the world. Their current initiatives allow them to make headway in their *innovation strategy* while revolutionizing other industries in the process.​









						An Inside Look at the Tesla Gigafactory
					

The Tesla Gigafactory holds the potential to transform manufacturing. Get the latest updates on Tesla's progress all over the world.




					leaders.com


----------



## JohnDe

> Thierry Piéton, chief financial officer of Renault, said the French carmaker initially predicted raw-material costs would double this year. Now it thinks they will triple. Elon Musk says Tesla’s suppliers are requesting 20-30% increases in parts for electric cars compared to this time last year.
> 
> Mr Musk said Tesla’s price increases were high enough to cover the full amount of cost increases he expects this year. Yet still the vehicles continue to fly out the door.












						The weird ways companies are coping with inflation
					

Consumers are barely yet aware of what is hitting them




					www.economist.com


----------



## JohnDe

Tesla most ‘future-ready’ carmaker, China’s BYD rising: Report​_Japan’s Toyota second, followed by Germany’s Volkswagen and South Korea’s Hyundai._

Tesla is the most “future-ready” carmaker, while its Chinese competitor BYD has made the most progress in enhancing its resilience, according to an index compiled by a top business school.

Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) company ranked first for readiness to navigate future crises for a fourth consecutive year, while Shenzhen-based BYD climbed nine places to fifth spot, according to the rankings released by the Swiss-based International Institute for Management Development (IMD) on Wednesday.

BYD’s local EV rivals XPeng, Li Auto and Nio ranked 12, 14, and 18, respectively.

The index, which has been compiled annually since 2010, bases its results on a combination of financial fundamentals, investors’ expectations of future growth, business diversity, employee diversity, research and development, early results of innovation efforts, and cash and debt.

International growth​Howard Yu, the author of the index, said Chinese firms would have to look beyond the local market to maintain their growth in the years ahead.

“Zero COVID lockdowns in China presents a near-term challenge,” Yu told Al Jazeera. “In the long run, Chinese companies – that are future ready – must seek international growth. If they are earning foreign exchange substantially, they are in a more favourable position.”

“BYD is a great example, as 40 percent of its revenue comes from the international market; and diversification of market risk is an important element of a successful strategy,” Yu said.

Yu said that Asian firms continued to lag their Western counterparts in diversity, in particular.

“The ranking sees diversity in gender, nationality, and the mindset of executives playing an increasingly influential role in corporate success – outperforming their competitors and being more resilient,” he said. “The trend sees the limited capacity of an overly homogenous company to reinvent when too many employees come from the same background, whether in terms of CEO mindset or gender, and critical mass is the tipping point to success.

Japan’s Toyota ranked as the second most future-ready carmaker, followed by Germany’s Volkswagen and South Korea’s Hyundai.

BMW, Ford, Stellantis, Daimler and Geely Automobile rounded out the top 10. Renault, Suzuki and US EV maker Rivian made up the bottom three.

In IMD’s rankings of financial services, Mastercard was rated the most future-ready firm, followed by Visa, JPMorgan Chase & Company, Paypal and Singapore’s DBS Bank.

China’s Ping An Insurance, the only other Asia-headquartered firm on the list, ranked 12, down five places from the previous year.

American Express ranked last, followed by American International Group and Credit Suisse.

Yu said Asian players in finance had significant room for growth.

“Finance requires deep customisation in each region,” he said. “A great example is how DBS continues to rank highly among global banks, despite their relatively smaller volume compared to their Western counterparts.

“The key is to leverage open innovation … and to partner with other fintech disruptors. This is how top-ranking financial companies stay nimble and efficient, as they scale.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA


----------



## JohnDe

Top 20 Electric Cars In The World — March 2022. Gold & Silver Win for Tesla

Looking at the monthly best seller table, the Model Y once again won the title, its 3rd in a row. This is the first time the crossover beat its sedan sibling during a whole quarter.

This is the result of two trends. First, Model Y deliveries continued to surge, having reached 92,221 units in March, a new all-time record for an EV. Secondly, the Model 3’s sales have been flattening, proven by the fact that the midsizer’s deliveries in the first quarter of 2022 were up by only one percent compared to the same period last year.








In the second best month ever for the global plugin vehicle market, record scores were plentiful, with 9 out of the top 20 best sellers having record scores.









*Tesla in #1*​In March, the top two brands scored record results, with Tesla getting 180,000 registrations and BYD close to 105,000 registrations — the first time we have two brands hitting 6-digit scores at the same time.















						Top 20 Electric Cars In The World — March 2022 (Charts)
					

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 60% in March 2022 compared to March 2021. There were 851,000 registrations, the second best month ever, representing 15% share of the overall auto market (11% BEV share), which




					cleantechnica.com


----------



## sptrawler

JohnDe said:


> Top 20 Electric Cars In The World — March 2022. Gold & Silver Win for Tesla
> 
> Looking at the monthly best seller table, the Model Y once again won the title, its 3rd in a row. This is the first time the crossover beat its sedan sibling during a whole quarter.
> 
> This is the result of two trends. First, Model Y deliveries continued to surge, having reached 92,221 units in March, a new all-time record for an EV. Secondly, the Model 3’s sales have been flattening, proven by the fact that the midsizer’s deliveries in the first quarter of 2022 were up by only one percent compared to the same period.



Then you get articles like this. Sometimes you wonder if the big advertisers put pressure on the reporters, oh look Tesla can't supply a car, but if you chose a Toyota or a Porsche (VW) no problems. 😂 








						Tesla electric car sales hit the brakes in April
					

After a strong start to the year, Tesla sales evaporated last month as the company joined the long list of car manufacturers impacted by severe stock shortages.




					www.drive.com.au
				




Tesla electric car sales hit the brakes in Australia last month, according to official VFACTS industry data released this week.
Just 52 examples of the Model 3 sedan were reported as sold in April 2022, a fraction compared to the 3097 reported as sold the month prior.
For reference, market leader Toyota delivered 17,956 vehicles during the same 30-day period and Porsche reported 481 cars as sold.


----------



## Student of Gann

Here is a recent Forecast I completed for Tesla including bar chart and price curve which contains four turning dates extending out towards the end of June. May 12th could turn out to be Low which is the first date on the curve then all of the other projected dates are covered . There are three important price levels to watch *410 416 and 425 which are quite close so if we can hold above the 12th May swing Low trend should move up into point X where there are two prices indicated for top . will update over the next few days Regards Student of Gann twitter


----------



## Student of Gann

​Here is some more analysis on Tesla :

By studying past Market movements we are able to get a line on what to expect in the future . History repeats in the lives of Men and also in Financial Markets . Gann states that every movement in the Market is the result of a Natural Law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past as the Bible plainly states . Here is a recent Forecast I completed for Tesla including bar chart and price Curve extending out towards the end of June containing four turning dates and other important price levels .

TSLA :
On the 26th January 2021 Tesla made top at 900 and ran down to the 6th March 539 low a move of 360 points in 39 days or a rate of 9.25 points per day. From here price moved up 241 points in the same time period as the previous swing down a rate of 6.17 points per day . The first range down was a full circle in price and it is also interesting to note the upswing was 241 points or 2/3rd of the circle . Quite often ranges will balance against the divisions of the circle such as 90 120 and 180 which are important price points especially if these ranges align with important Time Cycles. From the 14th April counter trend top price ran down 234 points in 35 days which closely balances against the time period of the previous swing down measuring 39 days . By comparing the price amplitude and time period of prior swings within the trend structure we are able to compare this data against the current position of the market and look for repeating patterns - this is what Gann referred to as form reading which is a very important foundation skill required to correctly interpret market structure . If we compare these measurements to the current trend structure we can see some similarities . Firstly the the move up from the 25th Feb 700 low up till the 1152 5th April top measures 452 points in 39 days a gain of 64% compared to the previous percentage increase of 44% so by comparing these two percentage increases we can see that the second range up overbalanced price but the time periods for both swings were balanced exactly at 39 calendar days from trough to peak . In 2021 there was a higher low on the 19th May at 546 which was 35 days down from the 14th April Top a decline of 234 points and from that point Tesla began the Bull campaign with Top culminating on the 5th November at 1243.
Currently we are down around 563 points from the 1243 High or about 45% compared against the previous drop into 539 6th March 2021 Low which measured 40% so we have exceeded that price swing in terms of percentage decrease . In the recent structure there are three important swings down - the first is from the 5th Nov 1243 Top which is 357 points down in 47 days moving at a rate of 7.5 points per day - the second swing down is from the 5th Jan 1208 Top which is 508 points down in 57 days moving at a rate of 8.9 points per day - then the current swing down from the 5th April Top which is presently 472 points down and 37 days in time up o the current date which is moving down at a rate of 12.75 points per day. By studying these ranges we can see the largest decline was 508 points and we are presently down 472 points so we have not balanced against that particular range at the present time - the first range down was 357 points which we have exceeded so these measurements can assist us in determining the potential amplitude of future price swings in conjunction with other factors but the main consideration is Time and when sufficient Time has expired and the Cycle is complete both space and volume should increase causing either Top or Bottom in the market.

studentofgann.com.au


----------



## orr

Thanks for that Gann; the 'points' you refer to repeatadly above we can all 'safely' assume are US dollars?

Oh and yeah.... on my reading of  the 'Bible' ( King James? )* unplainly *states a lot things. And the future may be repetition  and  fossil fuel epoch may be repeated, but 300-500 million years is a fair while to wait and see.

For other readers check TSLA 's trailing 12months P/E... Gross margins... Cost of goods sold ... forward orders ....* hallelujah *and pass the ammunition.  And ahh hopfully that's like 4680's out the end of a gattling gun. Not that  far from the 'ole Alamo' ...


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## bluekelah

A bit closer to home... A Tesla that was on auto-pilot has stopped peak hour traffic in Melbourne after it crashed over a barrier in Docklands. (driver says 3 years in a tesla never had a problem lol, looks like his time was up , or maybe the car recorded too much of his driving data and had a memory/data overload  Computer says no.. lol..Cant imagine any parent want to use Tesla after this incident.


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## Value Collector

bluekelah said:


> lol..Cant imagine any parent want to use Tesla after this incident.





Why? ICE cars with human drivers crash all the time.

In fact, the stats show that Teslas with autopilot engaged crash less often and have less deaths than cars driven by humans alone.

There will be crashes involving Teslas, there will be lots off them over time just like lots of human drivers crash.

Teslas don’t have to be perfect, they just have to be better than humans.


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## Value Collector

In case you forgot humans crash cars too, here is a compilation of videos showing human drivers crashing, of course none of them would make the news because humans crash so regularly it’s not news worthy. But any crash involving autopilot will probably make the news.


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## bluekelah

Value Collector said:


> Why? ICE cars with human drivers crash all the time.
> 
> In fact, the stats show that Teslas with autopilot engaged crash less often and have less deaths than cars driven by humans alone.
> 
> There will be crashes involving Teslas, there will be lots off them over time just like lots of human drivers crash.
> 
> Teslas don’t have to be perfect, they just have to be better than humans.



Are you sure those statistics do not include DRUNK DRIVERS or those under influence or those who have a stroke or heart attack or those who are severely fatigued after driving for hours?? I havent read the details myself but I am very sure those stats are not what they are claimed to be.

you have to compare a Normal alert person driving with Autopilot Vs Normal alert human alone causing a crash without other confounding factors..

IMO Teslas autopilot DOES have to be perfect. Coz the tendency for human drivers to disengage or get distracted just after a short period driving and not doing anything is very very high. You need to assume every driver with autopilot on is and will be asleep at the wheel at some stage, even if their hands are on it. So if a car manufacturer is going to make such a feature they damn well have to make sure it works 100% of the time.

If the Teslas are crashed by drunk drivers or speedsters going over the speed limits and cause a statistic thats just par for course.

But if we are gonna get normal healthy drivers who are safe drivers crash their Teslas becoz of autopilot going bad, then the autopilot does need closer scrutiny. (thats why despite all the fanfare etc.. Teslas are still stuck on level 2 )


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## Value Collector

bluekelah said:


> Are you sure those statistics do not include DRUNK DRIVERS or those under influence or those who have a stroke or heart attack or those who are severely fatigued after driving for hours?? I havent read the details myself but I am very sure those stats are not what they are claimed to be.



I am sure those situations are included in both auto pilot and non autopilot situations, if fact if a driver is going to be drunk or have a stroke or be severely fatigued I hope that the do have autopilot engaged for their safety and mine.

Thats actually an argument for autopilot, because as you have pointed out humans can be un reliable for a number of reasons.



> you have to compare a Normal alert person driving with Autopilot Vs Normal alert human alone causing a crash without other confounding factors..




Thats the whole point, two heads are better than one, autopilot will prevent crashes humans normally cause, and the alert person can prevent autopilot crashing, In Australia Teslas are not "full autopilot" updated yet, the driver is meant to be monitoring it, and be ready to take over.



> IMO Teslas autopilot DOES have to be perfect. Coz the tendency for human drivers to disengage or get distracted just after a short period driving and not doing anything is very very high




Why does it have to be perfect? it just has to be better than humans.

For example if on average humans cause a crash that results in a death every 100,000 miles, but auto pilot caused a crash every 500,000 miles, thats a huge improvement.




> . You need to assume every driver with autopilot on is and will be asleep at the wheel at some stage, even if their hands are on it. So if a car manufacturer is going to make such a feature they damn well have to make sure it works 100% of the time.




Current version of autopilot do not say that you can sleep, it clearly says you need to be alert.

However, drivers even without auto pilot suffer from "micro sleeps" that cause accidents, and you would be much safer in that situation with autopilot on.





> But if we are gonna get normal healthy drivers who are safe drivers crash their Teslas becoz of autopilot going bad, then the autopilot does need closer scrutiny. (thats why despite all the fanfare etc.. Teslas are still stuck on level 2 )




I can't see how that could happen, an alert driver with autopilot on would just take over. only a distracted Tesla driver would crash, but then again a distracted Tesla driver is far less likely to crash than a distracted non autopilot car.


----------



## bluekelah

Value Collector said:


> I am sure those situations are included in both auto pilot and non autopilot situations, if fact if a driver is going to be drunk or have a stroke or be severely fatigued I hope that the do have autopilot engaged for their safety and mine.
> 
> Thats actually an argument for autopilot, because as you have pointed out humans can be un reliable for a number of reasons.
> 
> 
> 
> Thats the whole point, two heads are better than one, autopilot will prevent crashes humans normally cause, and the alert person can prevent autopilot crashing, In Australia Teslas are not "full autopilot" updated yet, the driver is meant to be monitoring it, and be ready to take over.
> 
> 
> 
> Why does it have to be perfect? it just has to be better than humans.
> 
> For example if on average humans cause a crash that results in a death every 100,000 miles, but auto pilot caused a crash every 500,000 miles, thats a huge improvement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Current version of autopilot do not say that you can sleep, it clearly says you need to be alert.
> 
> However, drivers even without auto pilot suffer from "micro sleeps" that cause accidents, and you would be much safer in that situation with autopilot on.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I can't see how that could happen, an alert driver with autopilot on would just take over. only a distracted Tesla driver would crash, but then again a distracted Tesla driver is far less likely to crash than a distracted non autopilot car.



Tell that to the bloke involved in this model y crash who had been using autopilot for 3 years and now finally crashed. I am pretty sure he was alert, as the reporter said he claimed the car just wobbled and went off the road. Even if  he took over the car would have crashed, many car accidents are split second, like if u are rounding a corner at even 50 or 60kms, by the time system says take over the car would have already gone straight out of the bend. Why would I want to put myself in a car that the autopilot can malfunction and run through red lights , suddenly go off the road , explode in flames at rest or soon after a big accident? Yeah sure the incidence of this is less compared to drunk drivers and all the riff raff. 

But I am a safe defensive driver , have been for past 20years , never had any accidents , one speeding ticket every 10 years. And my parents 40 years clean driving records , never crashed a car. Why would I wanna risk the chance I have to 'take over and correct a autopilot mistake, especially if I have wife and kids on board. 

And what's the point of an imperfect autopilot u have to be alert all the time to make sure it doesn't f up.

And yeah it's not just in Australia,  Tesla's everywhere are still only at level 2 autonomous whether usa or Europe or australia. Elon keeps saying Tesla will be at level 4 but yeah crashes keep happening and there u go. 

I might get a new electric for the wife in a couple years time , maybe even a tesla, but autonomous  driving package? No thank you..


----------



## pozindustrial

bluekelah said:


> Tell that to the bloke involved in this model y crash who had been using autopilot for 3 years and now finally crashed. I am pretty sure he was alert, as the reporter said he claimed the car just wobbled and went off the road. Even if  he took over the car would have crashed, many car accidents are split second, like if u are rounding a corner at even 50 or 60kms, by the time system says take over the car would have already gone straight out of the bend. Why would I want to put myself in a car that the autopilot can malfunction and run through red lights , suddenly go off the road , explode in flames at rest or soon after a big accident? Yeah sure the incidence of this is less compared to drunk drivers and all the riff raff.
> 
> But I am a safe defensive driver , have been for past 20years , never had any accidents , one speeding ticket every 10 years. And my parents 40 years clean driving records , never crashed a car. Why would I wanna risk the chance I have to 'take over and correct a autopilot mistake, especially if I have wife and kids on board.
> 
> And what's the point of an imperfect autopilot u have to be alert all the time to make sure it doesn't f up.
> 
> And yeah it's not just in Australia,  Tesla's everywhere are still only at level 2 autonomous whether usa or Europe or australia. Elon keeps saying Tesla will be at level 4 but yeah crashes keep happening and there u go.
> 
> I might get a new electric for the wife in a couple years time , maybe even a tesla, but autonomous  driving package? No thank you..



Some people like cruise control some don’t- same thing


----------



## Value Collector

bluekelah said:


> Tell that to the bloke involved in this model y crash who had been using autopilot for 3 years and now finally crashed. I am pretty sure he was alert, as the reporter said he claimed the car just wobbled and went off the road. Even if  he took over the car would have crashed, many car accidents are split second, like if u are rounding a corner at even 50 or 60kms, by the time system says take over the car would have already gone straight out of the bend. Why would I want to put myself in a car that the autopilot can malfunction and run through red lights , suddenly go off the road , explode in flames at rest or soon after a big accident? Yeah sure the incidence of this is less compared to drunk drivers and all the riff raff.
> 
> But I am a safe defensive driver , have been for past 20years , never had any accidents , one speeding ticket every 10 years. And my parents 40 years clean driving records , never crashed a car. Why would I wanna risk the chance I have to 'take over and correct a autopilot mistake, especially if I have wife and kids on board.
> 
> And what's the point of an imperfect autopilot u have to be alert all the time to make sure it doesn't f up.
> 
> And yeah it's not just in Australia,  Tesla's everywhere are still only at level 2 autonomous whether usa or Europe or australia. Elon keeps saying Tesla will be at level 4 but yeah crashes keep happening and there u go.
> 
> I might get a new electric for the wife in a couple years time , maybe even a tesla, but autonomous  driving package? No thank you..



Firstly, your safe defensive 20 year driving history is to small of a sample to compare, because so far Teslas with auto pilot engaged have only recorded 1 crash for every 8 Million kms driven, and I doubt you have driven 8 Million kms, you might not even have driven 1 million, driving 20,000 kms a year would take 400 years to reach 8 million, so even your parents 40 year history is to small, your family would need to avoid a crash for 10 generations to equal the safety of a Tesla.

There was probably multiple other car crashes that day involving human error, they just don’t make the news.

We don’t know if the guy was alert or not, he could have been sending a text message who knows, you can take control of the car in literally less than a second, a soon as you resist the steering wheel turning the autopilot shuts off. 

A lot of teslas in the USA  now have full self driving, which is different from the autopilot currently available here, we just have the standard autopilot.


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## bluekelah

Value Collector said:


> Firstly, your safe defensive 20 year driving history is to small of a sample to compare, because so far Teslas with auto pilot engaged have only recorded 1 crash for every 8 Million kms driven, and I doubt you have driven 8 Million kms, you might not even have driven 1 million, driving 20,000 kms a year would take 400 years to reach 8 million, so even your parents 40 year history is to small, your family would need to avoid a crash for 10 generations to equal the safety of a Tesla.
> 
> There was probably multiple other car crashes that day involving human error, they just don’t make the news.
> 
> We don’t know if the guy was alert or not, he could have been sending a text message who knows, you can take control of the car in literally less than a second, a soon as you resist the steering wheel turning the autopilot shuts off.
> 
> A lot of teslas in the USA  now have full self driving, which is different from the autopilot currently available here, we just have the standard autopilot.



Some of the Teslas in USA are on full self driving BETA... you should read this article by a Tesla car fan who is currently trialling the system. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/02/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-how-close-to-level-5-autonomy/

Most notably still errors in :
[*Choosing the correct lane, Unprotected turns in heavy traffic,Speed bumps and dips, Phantom braking, Phantom swerving, Premature stopping, !!Running stop signs!!, Stopping at rotaries, Timid behavior at stop signs]*

[From the improvements I have seen in three versions of FSD Beta, *do I see significant progress toward Level 5 autonomy?* Short answer: I won’t be holding my breath.]

*Written by : Arthur Frederick (Fritz) Hasler, PhD, former leader of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization & Analysis Laboratory*

As I said before, if your autopilot runs a stop sign or does some sudden wierd moves that will swerve you off the road in one second, you wont even have time to react even if you are alert and take control.

We shall see, Elon is probably not gonna buy twitter now, or cant afford his offer price. Tesla looks like its lost the EV battle in Europe / China for now. Even the most highly touted full self driving is in doubt as other car makers embrace LiDAR tech and get to level 3 autonomy. Mercedes Benz became first to get *regulatory approval in producing vehicles capable of Level 3 autonomous. not that it matters, it would take a lot to convince me to put my family at risk with an autonomous system thats not perfect lol...*


----------



## Value Collector

bluekelah said:


> Some of the Teslas in USA are on full self driving BETA... you should read this article by a Tesla car fan who is currently trialling the system. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/02/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-how-close-to-level-5-autonomy/
> 
> Most notably still errors in :
> [*Choosing the correct lane, Unprotected turns in heavy traffic,Speed bumps and dips, Phantom braking, Phantom swerving, Premature stopping, !!Running stop signs!!, Stopping at rotaries, Timid behavior at stop signs]*
> 
> [From the improvements I have seen in three versions of FSD Beta, *do I see significant progress toward Level 5 autonomy?* Short answer: I won’t be holding my breath.]
> 
> *Written by : Arthur Frederick (Fritz) Hasler, PhD, former leader of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization & Analysis Laboratory*
> 
> As I said before, if your autopilot runs a stop sign or does some sudden wierd moves that will swerve you off the road in one second, you wont even have time to react even if you are alert and take control.
> 
> We shall see, Elon is probably not gonna buy twitter now, or cant afford his offer price. Tesla looks like its lost the EV battle in Europe / China for now. Even the most highly touted full self driving is in doubt as other car makers embrace LiDAR tech and get to level 3 autonomy. Mercedes Benz became first to get *regulatory approval in producing vehicles capable of Level 3 autonomous. not that it matters, it would take a lot to convince me to put my family at risk with an autonomous system thats not perfect lol...*



I have owned my Tesla for nearly 3 years now, and have seen constant improvements ins the autopilot.

If you see a stop sign and your car isn’t slowing down and acting like it’s going to stop, you just press the brake, this is what it means to be “alert”, especially in the trial mode of the beta program, the vehicles are actively learning.

As the stats show though, one crash in 8 million kms is far better than 1 crash in 2.5 Million which is the Human figures.


----------



## Value Collector

Teslas constant improvement continues to widen the safety gap between human drivers and autopilot.

https://insideevs.com/news/560991/tesla-accident-data-2021-q4/amp/


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## JohnDe

Reading the previous post highlights one thing to me - people that have no experience with the subject material have to jump to conclusions.

Want to comment, no problems everyone has the right to a say. Want to tell everyone how it is, get some experience first.


----------



## basilio

bluekelah said:


> Some of the Teslas in USA are on full self driving BETA... you should read this article by a Tesla car fan who is currently trialling the system. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/02/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-how-close-to-level-5-autonomy/
> 
> Most notably still errors in :
> [*Choosing the correct lane, Unprotected turns in heavy traffic,Speed bumps and dips, Phantom braking, Phantom swerving, Premature stopping, !!Running stop signs!!, Stopping at rotaries, Timid behavior at stop signs]*
> 
> [From the improvements I have seen in three versions of FSD Beta, *do I see significant progress toward Level 5 autonomy?* Short answer: I won’t be holding my breath.]
> 
> *Written by : Arthur Frederick (Fritz) Hasler, PhD, former leader of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization & Analysis Laboratory*
> 
> As I said before, if your autopilot runs a stop sign or does some sudden wierd moves that will swerve you off the road in one second, you wont even have time to react even if you are alert and take control.
> 
> We shall see, Elon is probably not gonna buy twitter now, or cant afford his offer price. Tesla looks like its lost the EV battle in Europe / China for now. Even the most highly touted full self driving is in doubt as other car makers embrace LiDAR tech and get to level 3 autonomy. Mercedes Benz became first to get *regulatory approval in producing vehicles capable of Level 3 autonomous. not that it matters, it would take a lot to convince me to put my family at risk with an autonomous system thats not perfect lol...*




*That was an exceptionally useful insight into the current status of autonomous Tesla cars.*
The writer is clearly very supportive of the technology and uses it extensively.
It works well in many situations.
Nonetheless there are still some important driving situations that haven't been sorted out.

That doesn't mean it is rubbish or useless. Just means that people need to be awake when they are driving.
I also think that it would pay to be aware *and made aware*  of the particular quirks that drivers should look out for.  They are not small potatoes and in fact represent some significant driving situations that would put drivers at risk.


----------



## pozindustrial

Now You Know tested the self driving more than once


----------



## JohnDe

Looks like Australia also missed the boat.



> *Tesla Is Hedging Its Global Supply Chain Bets*
> Elon Musk is hunting for new Asian production hubs for his EVs. Indonesia looks like the clear winner, while India appears to have missed the boat.
> 
> From India to Indonesia, Elon Musk is scouting out sites to make more Teslas for global roads. With the world mired in supply chain chaos, access to materials matters most. He’s got it right.
> 
> After lobbying against India’s tight policies around manufacturing and prohibitive import duties, Musk is headed to meet Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo and visit several areas across the country, which is also the top producer of nickel, a key metal for batteries. That’s an astute bet — for Tesla and Indonesia. And a missed opportunity for New Delhi.
> 
> To meet ambitious electric vehicle targets, Indonesia has drawn in several battery and car manufacturers in recent months with a variety of incentives. Government ministers say they hope to have investment across the supply chain.
> 
> With a friendly policy bolstering the country’s EV goals, manufacturers have started committing billions of dollars. LG Energy Solution, along with other companies, is investing about $9 billion to set up a supply chain — from mining to manufacturing — in the country. Together with Hyundai Motor Co., the firm is developing a battery plant, too. Meanwhile, the world’s largest powerpack maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. is investing almost $6 billion in a battery project with state-backed PT Aneka Tambang Tbk and PT Industri Baterai Indonesia. Further up the value chain, China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. and PT Vale Indonesia Tbk announced last month they would work together on the former’s fifth nickel project in the country.
> 
> The move by companies across the EV supply chain into the Southeast Asia’s largest economy shows how important it is to be close to the source of raw materials that feed into manufacturing. If there’s one thing the past year of logistical screw-ups and delays has shown the industry, it’s that proximity is key. Even if global supply and demand is balanced on paper, moving industrial goods around has become expensive, slow and cumbersome.
> 
> Tesla knows this well. It has created large manufacturing hubs in China and now Germany — countries known for their prowess in industrial production and policies that will help sell its cars. After having trouble making EVs in the US, its market share has grown globally. Now the company is looking to secure materials and make its own batteries, while stopping short of buying mines and getting into a new business. Wherever Musk sees problems in the production process, he looks for a solution. Tesla is essentially creating discrete supply chains across the globe.
> 
> Automakers wouldn’t have necessarily made their way to Indonesia. The country churns out around 1 million cars in a good year, and is dominated by Japanese producers’ smaller vehicles. The auto market pales in comparison to the likes of China and the US, and EVs make up a small portion. In addition, its geography doesn’t make it an ideal place for electric vehicle charging stations and infrastructure connectivity, although the government aims to make the capital, Jakarta, and the tourist hub of Bali model centers for greener transport.
> 
> Potential sales generated in Indonesia wouldn’t really move the needle for Tesla. Yet, the country is leveraging existing resources, an EV business-friendly policy and the right story to make it fertile ground for large-scale investment. The moment that happens, Indonesia will be able to boast about its battery manufacturing supply chain on the global scale — a much vaunted accolade these days that even the US is vying for. Private investment into manufacturing batteries will only draw more attention.
> 
> Meanwhile, India continues to hem and haw around whether it will lift duties. Government officials there have made big, bold statements about their ambitions, talking up their desire to draw in Tesla. Earlier this month, Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari went as far as to say that Tesla would benefit from manufacturing in India. Yet customers who placed orders are still waiting and it’s unclear how Musk’s firm would get a leg up. Now, there are questions around whether Tesla will make its way into India at all, given all the roadblocks.
> 
> That probably is a good bet, too. Setting up manufacturing now, especially as companies struggle to procure parts for their products and deal with logistical issues and high shipping costs, is the one thing firms don’t want to face. Progress toward EVs has been scattered and commitment isn’t clear. Toyota Motor Corp., one of the world’s biggest automakers but a laggard in EVs globally, has pledged to invest  $624 million to making EV-related components through its existing units in India, however it’s unclear who they will buy them. Even India’s dominant automakers Maruti Suzuki India Ltd isn’t planning on EVs until 2025. Add in policy hoops and punitive taxes, and India has all but ruled itself out by making the cost of investing in its market so high.
> 
> India’s vaccine king, Adar Poonawalla, also decided to weigh in earlier this month. He tweeted that putting capital into making cars in India would be the “best investment” Musk would “ever make.” That’s perhaps too optimistic.
> 
> EV and battery manufacturers are in high demand across the globe and it will take far more than bold words and political ambition — that includes  making existing resources available and coming up with a coherent policy that manufacturers can work with. It’s bizzare, then, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government continues to hold back. Yes, there are a few domestic EV models however, the Indian auto market remains an aspirational one. That means wide-scale adoption will pick up pace where there are models that people want to buy — like Tesla’s Model 3 — or enough charging facilities that make it easy, as the evolution of the two-wheeler market showed.
> 
> Much like China made Tesla a global company, Indonesia could do the same for its battery supply chain. All while making manufacturing more affordable and eventually, electric vehicles, too. It’s a means to an end — and a smart one at that.






> *Why is Indonesia's President Joko Widodo hanging out with Elon Musk?*
> 
> Indonesia's President Joko Widodo visited Washington last weekend along with other South-East Asian leaders, as his US counterpart Joe Biden seeks to court the region against growing Chinese influence.
> 
> But it was a trip to the small town of Boca Chica, Texas, that attracted more attention back home in Indonesia.
> 
> Mr Widodo had lined up a high-profile meeting with Tesla and Space X founder Elon Musk at the private space agency's headquarters, where he was given a private tour.
> 
> As Mr Widodo praised the tech baron as a "super genius", Mr Musk declared he was "very interested" in the future of Indonesia, a country of 270 million people.
> 
> The world's richest man also said the country exuded "positive energy".
> 
> "We're going to look, from a Tesla and Space X standpoint, to try and do some partnerships in Indonesia," Mr Musk said, flagging "future collaboration on many fronts".
> 
> Indonesia, South-East Asia's largest economy, seeks to cash in on the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) by luring foreign investment from the likes of Mr Musk.
> 
> Nickel is a key component of lithium-ion battery cells, which are used in most EVs.
> 
> So demand for the metal is rapidly increasing.
> 
> Sumitomo Metal Mining — Japan's largest nickel smelter and a supplier for the Panasonic lithium-ion batteries used in Tesla EVs — said in March it expected global demand for nickel to increase by 20 per cent during 2022 alone.
> 
> According to research firm Wood Mackenzie, nickel consumption for EV batteries is projected to increase 64 per cent between 2019 and 2025.
> 
> Along with Australia, Indonesia has the world's largest nickel reserves, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS), an American government body.
> 
> USGS reports that mine production in Indonesia increased by 30 per cent during 2021, which it attributed to the "ongoing commissioning" of projects across the resource-rich archipelago.
> 
> Mr Widodo's visit to Space X followed a recent meeting between Mr Musk and senior minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, and Indonesian officials told Reuters that working-level discussions on investment in the nickel industry had already taken place.
> 
> Indonesia's Minister for Investment, Bahlil Lahadalia, said Mr Musk would "lose out" if he did not invest in the country.
> 
> Musk 'fired up' about Indonesia​"I think it's great that Indonesia has a big population and the population is growing," Mr Musk said during his meeting with Mr Widodo in Texas.
> 
> "This is very good. Because, like, we need a lot of people for the future — and also Mars. Mars does not have any people, so we need people for Mars," he joked.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Elon Musk is a "super genius" according to Indonesia's leader.(Reuters: Laily Rachev/Indonesian Presidential Palace)
> "Indonesia seems very optimistic and positive about the future, which is awesome," Mr Musk added.
> 
> "I'm really fired up by how fired up you all are."
> But not everyone is so excited by the prospect of further investment in nickel mining in Indonesia, which is associated with coal-fired power plants.
> 
> A group of Indonesian environmental activists have written to Mr Musk, pointing to previous statements the billionaire has made around environmental sustainability.
> 
> "If Tesla wants to invest in Indonesia, they should make it free from coal-fired power plants," said Pius Ginting, coordinator of the Action for Ecology and People's Emancipation Association (known by its Indonesian acronym AEER), in the letter.
> 
> "Because doing so conflicts with the aim of electric transportation: reducing total gas emission," he added.
> 
> In mid-2020, Mr Musk called upon mining firms to boost their production of nickel to meet Tesla's needs.
> 
> "Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way," Mr Musk said at the time........


----------



## orr

JohnDe said:


> Looks like Australia also missed the boat.



Don't be to dispondent JD, events of the last day or so give me hope.
Indo can go hard I'd like nothing beter than to see industrialisation down this line for Indonesia: But  then add  in all the minerals across the top of the Coral sea and a rapprochement with the French in New  Calidonia. 
The regional economic/ security  advantages should be obvious to any longer term strategic planner; That is 'a_ planner _above a certain level.'


----------



## sptrawler

Interesting article on Tesla share price. Has anyone been following it








						Tesla stock plummets almost 50 per cent
					

In just six months, approximately $US560 billion – or the combined worth of Toyota, Volkswagen, BYD, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW – has been wiped from Tesla's




					www.drive.com.au


----------



## pozindustrial

Been buying


----------



## moXJO

Rivian went from a high of 176 down to $19 roughly. Now that's a drop.


----------



## JohnDe

> *Tesla battery research group unveils paper on new high-energy-density battery that could last 100 years*
> 
> Tesla’s advanced battery research group in Canada in partnership with Dalhousie University has released a new paper on a new nickel-based battery that could last 100 years while still favorably comparing to LFP cells on charging and energy density.
> 
> Back in 2016, Tesla established its “Tesla Advanced Battery Research” in Canada through a partnership with Jeff Dahn’s battery lab at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada.
> 
> Dahn is considered a pioneer in Li-ion battery cells. He has been working on the Li-ion batteries pretty much since they were invented. He is credited for helping to increase the life cycle of the cells, which helped their commercialization.
> 
> His work now focuses mainly on a potential increase in energy density and durability, while also decreasing the cost.
> 
> The group has already produced quite a few patents and papers on batteries for Tesla. The automaker recently extended its contract with the group through 2026 as it added two new leaders to be mentored by Dahn.
> 
> One of those new leaders, Michael Metzger, along with Dahn himself, and a handful of PhDs in the program, are named as authors of a new research paper called “Li[Ni0.5Mn0.3Co0.2]O2 as a Superior Alternative to LiFePO4 for Long-Lived Low Voltage Li-Ion Cells” in the Journal of the Electrochemical Society.
> 
> The paper describes a nickel-based battery chemistry meant to compete with LFP battery cells on longevity while retaining the properties that people like in nickel-based batteries, like higher energy density, which enables longer range with fewer batteries for electric vehicles.
> 
> The group wrote in the paper’s abstract:
> 
> Single crystal Li[Ni0.5Mn0.3Co0.2]O2//graphite (NMC532) pouch cells with only sufficient graphite for operation to 3.80 V (rather than ≥4.2 V) were cycled with charging to either 3.65 V or 3.80 V to facilitate comparison with LiFePO4//graphite (LFP) pouch cells on the grounds of similar maximum charging potential and similar negative electrode utilization. The NMC532 cells, when constructed with only sufficient graphite to be charged to 3.80 V, have an energy density that exceeds that of the LFP cells and a cycle-life that greatly exceeds that of the LFP cells at 40 °C, 55 °C and 70 °C. Excellent lifetime at high temperature is demonstrated with electrolytes that contain lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide (LiFSI) salt, well beyond those provided by conventional LiPF6 electrolytes.
> The cells showed an impressive capacity retention over a high number of cycles:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The research group even noted that the new cell described in the paper could last a 100 years if the temperature is controlled at 25C:
> 
> Ultra-high precision coulometry and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy are used to complement cycling results and investigate the reasons for the improved performance of the NMC cells. NMC cells, particularly those balanced and charged to 3.8 V, show better coulombic efficiency, less capacity fade and higher energy density compared to LFP cells and are projected to yield lifetimes approaching a century at 25 °C.​
> One of the keys appears to be using an electrolyte with LiFSI lithium salts, and the paper notes that the benefits could also apply to other nickel-based chemistries, including those with no or low cobalt.


----------



## pozindustrial

I saw some info that talked about existing batteries that have lasted 100 years. The problems are fast recharging, capacity vs size or weight and many other factors. 

Investors have spoken about buying nickel and lithium stocks which could be used extensively for batteries by Tesla or EV manufacturers worldwide, but I think investing in Tesla covers it all - materials now and in the future, battery manufacturing including the latest advances plus multiple uses for batteries as in cars, power stations, home energy storage, trucks etc. That way I hope to cover dramatic changes over time that might affect other investments in materials.


----------



## sptrawler

JohnDe said:


> Looks like Australia also missed the boat.



I wonder if they have an ICAC keeping an eye on things.


----------



## JohnDe

Some say that Elon is now back tracking on his commitment to buy Twitter by selling more of his shares. Instead he will try get the price down and source backers. Large holders & fund managers are watching closely.



> *With Elon Musk’s Twitter bid in flux, some Tesla fans say enough already*
> 
> Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover comments haven’t just riled the social-media company’s executives and staff. They have also frustrated some of the billionaire’s loyal Tesla backers.
> 
> The electric-vehicle maker has lost roughly 30 per cent of its value since April 1, as the will-he-or-won’t-he drama around Mr Musk’s investment in Twitter – and eventual $US44bn deal to take over the social-media company – has played out. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell around 15 per cent in that time.
> 
> The episode has sparked concerns even among some fans of the Tesla chief executive that he might risk stretching himself too thin. Mr Musk also runs rocket company SpaceX and helped start a tunnelling enterprise and a neuroscience start-up working on brain-implant technologies. Now with Twitter, some Tesla supporters are concerned that he could lose focus.
> 
> “I wish he would walk away,” said Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund, which owns roughly $US50m worth of Tesla, according to FactSet. Mr Black, a Tesla booster, said he views Twitter as a distraction that is likely to demand more of Mr Musk’s time than the billionaire expects.
> 
> A close follower of Tesla recently tweeted at Mr Musk and the Twitter CEO: “Elon, Twitter is an unnecessary distraction. Just focus on Tesla.”
> 
> Mr Musk has sought to quell such anxiety. “To be clear, I’m spending
> 
> Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment.
> 
> Concerns Mr Musk may have taken on too much aren’t new, and he has been able to build Tesla into the world’s most valuable carmaker while also running Space Exploration Technologies Corp., as SpaceX is formally known.
> 
> Tesla investors have digested Mr Musk’s Twitter takeover effort in waves. The company’s stock fell around 8 per cent from April 1 – the last trading day before Mr Musk disclosed that he had taken a large stake in Twitter – through April 25, when Twitter accepted his bid to take over the company. The Nasdaq Composite slid roughly 9 per cent in that time.
> 
> Tesla’s tumble continued from there. First, Mr Musk sold roughly 9.6 million Tesla shares, worth around $US8.5bn, in the days after striking the Twitter deal. Then, facing the continued erosion of Tesla’s stock price, he injected fresh doubt into the Twitter deal, saying that the planned acquisition was “temporarily on hold” citing concerns about fake accounts, though he added at the time that he remained committed to the acquisition.
> 
> Twitter has said it is proceeding with the transaction as agreed.
> 
> Mr Musk, whose fortune is made up largely of Tesla stock, disclosed on Wednesday that he no longer plans to rely on a margin loan backed by Tesla shares to finance the Twitter deal. He committed additional equity instead, saying he was seeking additional outside financial backing.
> 
> The recent slide in Tesla’s stock price has prompted some, including Mr Black, to press Tesla to repurchase its own shares. Buybacks can project confidence to investors and support stock prices by reducing a company’s share count. Tesla was sitting on roughly $US17.5bn in cash as of the first quarter.
> 
> Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment about whether it was considering buybacks. Asked in April about what Tesla plans to do with its cash long-term, Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn said the company was investing in its new factories and products.
> 
> It couldn’t be learned whether the comments of some Tesla loyalists are affecting Mr Musk’s thinking, or if they reflect the views of larger shareholders.
> 
> Earl Banning, a Dayton, Ohio, psychologist and Tesla investor, described himself as hesitant about Mr Musk’s pursuit of Twitter.
> 
> “He’s already a lightning rod, and it makes him more of a lightning rod,” said Dr. Banning, a Tesla enthusiast whom Mr Musk interacts with regularly on Twitter. That hasn’t spurred Dr. Banning to sell Tesla stock, though.
> 
> “Elon’s going to continue being Elon,” Dr. Banning said. “I feel that as a long-term shareholder, it will come back to where it should be because they’re executing. They are selling cars, and they’re profitable.”
> 
> Tesla reported a record $US3.3bn quarterly profit in the three months ended in March.
> 
> Twitter hasn’t been the only issue for Tesla investors to digest. Supply-chain bottlenecks and Covid-19 lockdowns in China have constrained the electric-car company’s sales. Tesla in April sold just 1512 vehicles made at its Shanghai plant, down 94 per cent from a year earlier.
> 
> Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the company to deliver roughly 292,000 vehicles globally in the three months ending in June, down from 310,048 vehicles in the first quarter. That would mark Tesla’s first quarter-over-quarter decline in deliveries in more than two years.
> 
> Meanwhile, Mr Musk has waded further into politics, saying that he expected partisan attacks against him and that he plans to vote Republican moving forward.
> 
> “Unless it is stopped, the woke mind virus will destroy civilisation and humanity will never reached Mars,” Mr Musk tweeted last week.
> 
> Last week, news publication Insider reported that SpaceX paid an unidentified flight attendant $US250,000 in 2018 to settle a sexual misconduct claim against Mr Musk, the company’s chief executive. Mr Musk responded on Twitter, calling the accusations “utterly untrue.”
> 
> SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told company staff in a subsequent email that she personally believed that allegations made against Mr Musk were false. Neither she nor Mr Musk addressed whether a settlement was paid. Ms Shotwell said in the email that SpaceX doesn’t tolerate harassment of any kind.
> 
> Some Tesla devotees see opportunity in the share-price decline. John Stringer, who runs a Tesla owners club in Silicon Valley, said he has increased his Tesla holdings in recent weeks.
> 
> “This is kind of what comes with the territory,” Mr Stringer said of Mr Musk’s unpredictable tweeting and his corporate juggling act.
> 
> The Wall Street Journal


----------



## JohnDe

An interesting view point -


----------



## pozindustrial

100% agree


----------



## noirua

Over 750 Tesla drivers report phantom braking when using driving automation systems
					

The NHTSA is demanding a trove of data from Tesla to conduct an audit of its safety standards and product malfunctions after at least 750 Tesla owners reported their vehicles braking without reason.




					www.foxbusiness.com


----------



## qldfrog

noirua said:


> Over 750 Tesla drivers report phantom braking when using driving automation systems
> 
> 
> The NHTSA is demanding a trove of data from Tesla to conduct an audit of its safety standards and product malfunctions after at least 750 Tesla owners reported their vehicles braking without reason.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxbusiness.com



There is a line of code: better safe than sorry, in doubt, brake😊


----------



## JohnDe

*Model Y* now available in Australia


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> *Model Y* now available in Australia
> 
> View attachment 142715



I paid my 350  deposit back on May 25 just in case its true.
Edit I paid a deposit for a model X not the Y.

Mick


----------



## sptrawler

Interesting article.








						Musk says Tesla's new car factories 'losing billions of dollars'
					

Tesla's new car factories in Texas and Berlin are "losing billions of dollars" as they struggle to increase production because of a shortage of batteries and China port issues, CEO Elon Musk said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## pozindustrial

Tesla just produced 1,000 cars in a week from GigaBerlin, all model Y's I believe.


----------



## sptrawler

pozindustrial said:


> Tesla just produced 1,000 cars in a week from GigaBerlin, all model Y's I believe.



Obviously someone is telling porkies.


----------



## JohnDe

Friday, Tesla SP finished up by ($31.91) +4.52%



> *Here’s what moved Tesla shares* *Thursday*
> Investors reading past the headlines saw more long-term good news for the electric vehicle leader.
> 
> *What happened*
> As is often the case, there was no shortage of news and coverage on electric vehicle leader Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Thursday. That news had Tesla stock moving higher by as much as 1.4% early in the session, but the trend subsequently reversed, sending it down by nearly 3% relative to where it closed Wednesday. *Friday the stock finished up by ($31.91) +4.52%
> 
> *So what*
> That initial jump could have stemmed from investors digging more deeply into a Reuters article published Wednesday that reported that Tesla will be suspending production at its Shanghai factory for two weeks at the beginning of July. The headline may have had investors turning negative about Tesla's near-term outlook, but the maintenance work scheduled for the plant is expected to increase its productivity. That should result in record production levels to come by the end of July, according to the report.
> 
> Another bit of news that drew a negative response from investors was the release of a May 30 interview with CEO Elon Musk in which he said Tesla's new factories in Berlin and Texas were both burning through cash and losing billions due to supply chain-related delays. Musk colorfully called the plants "gigantic money furnaces."
> 
> Musk said supply chain disruptions have been interfering with the company's ability to ramp production up at the two new facilities. According to CNBC, he summarized the situation by saying, "there's a ton of expense and hardly any output."  He added that getting those new plants and the Shanghai factory running smoothly is "overwhelmingly" his top priority.
> 
> *Now what*
> But while that interview was just released Wednesday, the comments were made several weeks ago. In the interim, the automaker has announced cost-savings measures and a plan to reduce salaried employee headcount, and Musk said that he expected to resolve the company's current challenges.
> 
> Tesla hasn't changed its guidance target for producing 1.5 million vehicles this year, and investors looking past the headlines probably helped the stock bounce back from its initial drop on Thursday.


----------



## noirua

Scroll 45% down (approx.) and you will find a Tesla and others profit/ loss calculator over the last five years:








						Capitulation: What It Is in Finance and Investing, With Examples
					

Capitulation happens when investors dump a slumping security or market en masse, only to regret it soon after.




					www.investopedia.com
				



If you had invested *$1,000* in *TSLA* stock *10 years ago*, today the investment would be worth:
$116,633


----------



## JohnDe

> Why Tesla’s ‘robust fundamentals’ can offset a challenged quarter​Tesla Inc. may be on track to report a “challenged quarter,” but there’s still plenty of reason to be optimistic about its stock, according to a Credit Suisse analyst.
> 
> “We believe the long-term case for Tesla is clear – Tesla remains the global leader in EV [electric vehicles], and amid rising supply chain risks, we believe Tesla’s lead over other automakers in the race to EV is only amplified given its lead in vertical integration and its prior EV experience,” Levy wrote.
> 
> Additionally, the company has implemented price increases in the wake of surging inflation, though Levy sees these price hikes as a sign of Tesla’s strong demand and notes that they will begin to manifest in financial results later this year or early next year given that they only cover new orders.
> 
> “We…continue to believe in our thesis that robust fundamentals ahead should outweigh the near-term challenges for Tesla such as the recent growth selloff, production disruptions in China, lingering semiconductor shortage and magnified inflationary pressures,” Levy wrote.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why Tesla's 'robust fundamentals' can offset a challenged quarter
> 
> 
> Tesla Inc. may be on track to report a "challenged quarter," but there's still plenty of reason to be optimistic about its stock, according to a Credit...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketwatch.com


----------



## JohnDe

> *ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026.*
> 
> The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes respectively, are approximately $5,800 and $2,900 per share, as shown below.
> We provide this open-source model to the public because we believe doing so strengthens the quality of our research. By sharing our assumptions and modeling methodologies we hope to solicit constructive feedback and criticism. As with open-source software, we believe that open-source research will prove to be more robust and accurate than research conducted non-transparently behind closed doors.[1]
> Expected (Base), Bear, and Bull Case Tesla Per Share Price Targets
> 
> 
> ARK’s Simulation OutputsARK’s 2026 Price Estimate (Per Share)SignificanceExpected Value$4,600This projection is our expected value for Tesla’s stock price in 2026, based on our Monte Carlo analysis.Bear$2,900We believe that there is a 25% probability that Tesla could be worth $2,900 per share or less in 2026.Bull$5,800We believe that there is a 25% probability that Tesla could be worth $5,800 per share or more in 2026.
> Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022
> 
> Our updated Monte Carlo model moves the prior 2025 target out one year to 2026. For the benefit of readers, this article presents “expected” (or “base”), “bear,” and “bull” cases as a way of contextualizing the meaning of our 2026 share price expectations. Methodologically, we arrive at our base-case share price by averaging one million simulations produced by our Monte Carlo model. Our bear and bull cases are the 25th and 75th percentile values, respectively. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision, and are built on our modeling that reflect our biases and long term positive view of the company. Please see additional disclosure below on forecasts and hypothetical performance. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
> 
> This research update is based on ARK’s new open-source Tesla model, which incorporates distributions for 38 independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes for the company.
> Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026.[2] Across our simulation set, we expect electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue. The chart below breaks down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and value by business-line in this model.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share
> 
> 
> ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026. Please explore and test our assumptions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ark-invest.com


----------



## JohnDe

Tesla found 1 per cent negligent after teen killed driving more than 185kph
					

The teen and his father are found 99 per cent at fault for the crash, which happened after the car's speed limiter was deactivated.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## basilio

You might have missed this  startling news story,  Seems to be a significant change in direction.

Elon Musk announces Tesla will switch to hydrogen in 2024​ 
Elon Musk shocked followers on Twitter early this morning with his announcement that, after many years of scepticism, he will be switching Tesla from batteries to hydrogen power in 2024. He also mentioned the first vehicle to arrive using the fuel will fittingly be called the Model H.
Musk had previously dubbed hydrogen fuel cells “fool cells” and called the technology “mind-bogglingly stupid”. The rapid about turn is thought to be due to terminal problems encountered in the mass production of the 4680 battery.









						Elon Musk announces Tesla will switch to hydrogen in 2024
					

Elon Musk shocked followers on Twitter early this morning with his announcement that, after many years of scepticism, he will




					www.whichev.net


----------



## SirRumpole

basilio said:


> You might have missed this  startling news story,  Seems to be a significant change in direction.
> 
> Elon Musk announces Tesla will switch to hydrogen in 2024​
> Elon Musk shocked followers on Twitter early this morning with his announcement that, after many years of scepticism, he will be switching Tesla from batteries to hydrogen power in 2024. He also mentioned the first vehicle to arrive using the fuel will fittingly be called the Model H.
> Musk had previously dubbed hydrogen fuel cells “fool cells” and called the technology “mind-bogglingly stupid”. The rapid about turn is thought to be due to terminal problems encountered in the mass production of the 4680 battery.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Elon Musk announces Tesla will switch to hydrogen in 2024
> 
> 
> Elon Musk shocked followers on Twitter early this morning with his announcement that, after many years of scepticism, he will
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.whichev.net



Are you sure this isn't a hoax?

_"Finally, in 2027, the most audacious member of the new Tesla Hydrogen range will arrive – the Model O. This will be Tesla’s hydrogen-powered coupe and will also be known as the O-dster. It will incorporate an upgraded Hindenburg Mode capable of accelerating it to 60mph in just 0.2 seconds. *To enable this mode, occupants must be strapped into the specially designed gel-based “crash seats” and, at least 30 minutes prior to acceleration, consume a custom drug aimed at counteracting the G-force and preventing aneurisms."*_

*Yeah right.*


----------



## JohnDe

I don't know about the hydrogen link, maybe click bait, but I do know that earnings are up - 

Tesla reports quarterly results​Highlights of the Tesla Q2 2022 results include:


Total revenue of $16.93 billion, up 42% year on year, down 10% on the previous quarter
Net GAAP income of $2.26 billion, up 98% year on year, down 32% on the previous quarter
Total gross profit of $4.2 billion, up 47% year on year but down 22% on the previous quarter
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of $5.023 billion
14.6% operating margin
Cash of $18.9 billion
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.27


----------



## frugal.rock

SirRumpole said:


> Are you sure this isn't a hoax?



Hilarious... The O dster...
You've been had @basilio

From the link...

"Finally, in 2027, the most audacious member of the new Tesla Hydrogen range will arrive – the Model O. This will be Tesla’s hydrogen-powered coupe and will also be known as the O-dster. It will incorporate an upgraded Hindenburg Mode capable of accelerating it to 60mph in just 0.2 seconds. To enable this mode, occupants must be strapped into the specially designed gel-based “crash seats” and, at least 30 minutes prior to acceleration, consume a custom drug aimed at counteracting the G-force and preventing aneurisms."

Someone needs more booster shots...😵‍💫


----------



## frugal.rock

April fools... der
 🤪😹


----------



## basilio

basilio said:


> You might have missed this startling news story, Seems to be a significant change in direction.



April 1st.  I was wondering how long it world take for people to ick up the joke..  It starts off wild and ends outrageous.


----------



## orr

For people looking at the serious numbers there was an energy forum in Sydney a week or so ago, I'll link if requested. ( better if you go dig yourself  ' Sydneyenergyforum')
One important take-away were the remarks of a panasonic excutive on the demand requirments to supply Tesla with battery's in 2030...
 2 Tera watts.
And that just  Tesla's request from Panisonic.
Multipuls of todays global production..... From one company for one company. Panasonic-TSLA.


----------



## Value Collector

basilio said:


> April 1st.  I was wondering how long it world take for people to ick up the joke..  It starts off wild and ends outrageous.



I was about to say that I am not sure many people that own Teslas would enjoy having to attend petrol stations again


----------



## SirRumpole

I wonder how much the debacle over Musk's attempted takeover of Twitter has created concern over his sate of mind and reliability to run his empire in the future.

Are investors starting to think twice about his judgement and about risking their money with him ?

As I said before , he's a genius technically, but that doesn't necessarily translate to business acumen especially with the size of his ego.

Just a thought...


----------



## JohnDe

SirRumpole said:


> I wonder how much the debacle over Musk's attempted takeover of Twitter has created concern over his sate of mind and reliability to run his empire in the future.
> 
> Are investors starting to think twice about his judgement and about risking their money with him ?
> 
> As I said before , he's a genius technically, but that doesn't necessarily translate to business acumen especially with the size of his ego.
> 
> Just a thought...




What happened to the TSLA share price on Thursday & Friday?


----------



## SirRumpole

JohnDe said:


> What happened to the TSLA share price on Thursday & Friday?



Short term v long term.

To me, the willingness to spend billions on something outside ones area of expertise and apparently for one's personal gratification are danger signs in the long term.

We will see.


----------



## JohnDe

SirRumpole said:


> Short term v long term.
> 
> To me, the willingness to spend billions on something outside ones area of expertise and apparently for one's personal gratification are danger signs in the long term.
> 
> We will see.




How do you know what is outside his experience, and how experience matters?

Your fear of investing in something you know little about is good and understandable. Unless you're a financial advisor with knowledge on the subject, warning others and adding doubt in something that you don't know is not understandable.

Musk knew nothing about maps -

_"....__left South Africa on his own without anything or anyone.__ He went to Canada where he stayed for a while - without a permanent home - until his brother met up with him. They made their way to Palo Alto and started their first business. Zip2 was basically mapquest before mapquest (which was Google Maps before Google Maps). It would end up selling for $307 million. Cha-ching."_​
Very little about finance - 

_"Elon poured all of his money into his next venture, a company that would change the banking industry. At the time people said he was crazy and that consumers would never trust the security of the internet for online banking. His company, X.com, was more successful than anyone had ever thought possible. He even beat out his biggest competitor, PayPal, started by Peter Thiel as they agreed to merge together with Elon becoming the largest shareholder."_​
Rockets was his childhood dream - 

_"After his near-death experience, Elon revisited his childhood dreams of going to Mars. He visited NASA’s website one day and found no plan or even mention of going to Mars. Taken aback, he headed to Russia to see if he could buy a rocket himself. After being pushed around with ridiculous prices, Elon dove into books studying how rockets are built. On their plane ride home from Russia, he declared he would build the rocket himself with a spreadsheet detailing how to do it. This was how SpaceX was born."_​








> Who will be the eco era’s Rockefellers?​
> On Boxing Day 2018, Elon Musk did not let the festivities keep him away from Twitter. Reminding his followers that they had only five days left to take advantage of a dollars 7,500 tax credit on electric vehicles, the Tesla founder added that “most importantly, every electric car, Tesla or otherwise, matters to the environment we all share. Every time someone chooses electric, the future gets a little bit brighter.”
> 
> It was a beguiling message: that Tesla owners could enjoy all the comfort and convenience of car ownership without the environmental guilt. And for the most part it was true. Electric cars are far better for the environment, on the whole. As we generate more of our electricity from renewable sources, and as we make more of our steel with hydrogen rather than coal, the environmental case for electric cars will only strengthen.
> 
> However, as Henry Sanderson shows in his book Volt Rush: The Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green, the uptake of the electric car will bring its own set of moral dilemmas, environmental and geopolitical. That uptake is well under way. Although electric cars make up only about 1 per cent of the global fleet, their numbers are growing fast.
> 
> olkswagen is aiming for half of its sales to be electric by 2030 - this is also the year after which it will no longer be possible to buy a petrol car in the UK. All those cars will be powered by batteries made from rare earth elements as well as lithium, nickel, copper and cobalt. Demand will skyrocket: for lithium, it is expected to increase thirtyfold by 2030.
> 
> Sanderson, a former reporter on China and commodities for the Financial Times, writes that whoever controls these resources will be “the new Rockefellers. A new strategic game has opened up.” His book is an account of the opening moves of that game, a travelogue of his journey through the supply chains that will shape our decarbonised future.
> 
> That journey takes him to the Atacama desert in Chile, where silvery flecks of lithium are being evaporated from vast pools of brine, and to cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where child labour is tarnishing the moral credentials of electric cars. His intention is to identify the pitfalls we must avoid if we are to transition equitably to electric cars.
> 
> As he travels the world, a pattern begins to emerge: wherever there are the metals needed for the green transition, China has already snapped them up. China, the world’s most voracious importer of oil, was quick to see that by embracing electric cars it could reduce its reliance on the rest of the world and in 2009 began handing out lavish subsidies to their buyers. To feed its domestic electric vehicle market, Chinese companies began buying up rare earth deposits in Chile, Australia, Congo and Indonesia, getting a head start in a race that the West did not even realise it had to run.
> 
> Sanderson recounts a series of deals that Chinese companies were able to seal without alerting their western competitors to their geopolitical import. In Australia, the Chinese mining company Tianqi bought a 51 per cent stake in the world’s largest lithium mine with the backing of the China Development Bank (CDB).
> 
> “Most western companies cannot get a vast state-owned bank such as the CDB to provide credit for a deal,” Sanderson writes. “The investors who owned [the mine] were only too happy to accept [Tianqi’s offer] and the deal was waved through by Australian regulators. It was the first round in the global race to secure lithium supplies, and Tianqi had won before anyone was paying attention.”
> 
> The pattern repeated itself in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Chinese companies now own 80 per cent of the country’s output of cobalt. In Indonesia too, the Chinese stainless steel company Tsingshan successfully lobbied for an export ban on nickel, so only companies with a presence in the country could take advantage of demand for the metal.
> 
> The impression one gets from these deals is that western governments have fallen for a complacent delusion; that it doesn’t really matter who owns which resources because whoever owns them will always want to sell them to the highest bidder on the international market.
> 
> By this logic, it doesn’t matter if most of the lithium mines are owned by Chinese companies, so long as Tesla can stump up the cash to buy it. But what happens if - as in the case of Indonesian nickel - it’s no longer for sale? What if a geopolitical calamity such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine suddenly isolates swathes of the global economy? In such cases, you would rather your supply chains started closer to home.
> 
> Sanderson shows that this penny has finally begun to drop in the minds of western governments and car manufacturers. He talks to the entrepreneur Jeremy Wrathall, who hopes to revive Cornwall’s long tradition of mining by extracting lithium from the county’s hills.
> 
> Commenting on that prospect, the prime minister Boris Johnson said: “It is a wonderful thing that Cornwall indeed boasts extensive resources of lithium, and we mean to exploit them.” Yet Sanderson adds that Jacob Rees-Mogg, the minister for Brexit opportunities, “replied haughtily that the UK had relied on fair and free trade for its industries and that would continue”.
> 
> Sanderson deftly guides us through the convolutions of which company bought what from which, and he livens up that potentially desiccated subject matter with an eye for characterful detail. Among the characters we meet is Robert Friedland, a copper tycoon and friend of Steve Jobs, the Apple founder, who posed in his younger days as a hippy and set up a communal farm, only for the other members of the commune to slowly realise he was working them to the bone for his own profit.
> 
> Despite the seemingly insuperable geopolitical quandaries with which it deals, the tone of Sanderson’s book is one of cautious optimism. “We shouldn’t be hostile to green technologies,” he writes, “but we shouldn’t be naive either. The oil age has left a long scar on the twentieth century. We should make sure that the industries of our green future do much better.”
> 
> Volt Rush: The Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green
> 
> By Henry Sanderson
> 
> (Oneworld, 288pp)
> 
> The Times


----------



## SirRumpole

JohnDe said:


> warning others and adding doubt in something that you don't know is not understandable.




I know about over reach, it's bought down many an entrepreneur. and a lot of investors have suffered.

I really hope it doesn't happen and Elon continues to turn out good products and stays solvent because he's a clever person, but I think that there are possibly more risks with him that others in the long term.


----------



## Value Collector

SirRumpole said:


> Short term v long term.
> 
> To me, the willingness to spend billions on something outside ones area of expertise and apparently for one's personal gratification are danger signs in the long term.
> 
> We will see.



I guess if Musk wasn’t willing to go outside his area of expertise we wouldn’t have either Tesla or Space Ex to begin with.

I mean he made his 100’s of Millions by inventing Pay Pal an online payment system,  and then bet the lot on an electric car company and a rocket company, neither of which would have been considered his core competence when he was basically known as an internet/ software programmer.

Actually if you rewind back to 2007, people probably would have probably thought something like Twitter made more sense for him than a car or rocket manufacturer


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## orr

Oh Joe Manchin.... how I only thought I hated you... Is it going to be one of those abusive relationships? the early  signs are there...


----------



## qldfrog

SirRumpole said:


> Are you sure this isn't a hoax?
> 
> _"Finally, in 2027, the most audacious member of the new Tesla Hydrogen range will arrive – the Model O. This will be Tesla’s hydrogen-powered coupe and will also be known as the O-dster. It will incorporate an upgraded Hindenburg Mode capable of accelerating it to 60mph in just 0.2 seconds. *To enable this mode, occupants must be strapped into the specially designed gel-based “crash seats” and, at least 30 minutes prior to acceleration, consume a custom drug aimed at counteracting the G-force and preventing aneurisms."*_
> 
> *Yeah right.*



Straight from sci fi series Expanse..on Amazon Prime


----------



## JohnDe

Tesla incorporating other businesses to improve the spread of charging stations and functionality. BK World have a contract to install self serve lounges, which are cubicles that are ready to go and dropped into place. These are going up all around Europe, in remote regions. Imagine if an Australian company could design and stall something similar, but then again, we don't have the population (or do we?)

Tesla deploys cube lounges at Supercharger station with automated coffee, food, and more​






Tesla has deployed large cube lounges at a Supercharger station in Germany that is equipped with automated vending machines for coffee, food, and more.
The new partnership with bk World to deploy these lounges could reshape Tesla’s Supercharger networks in regions where it is more challenging to deploy charging stations near amenities.

Tesla has been trying to deploy its Supercharger stations at properties located around amenities that offer food, coffee, and restrooms, but that is not always easy.
At a few locations, Tesla has deployed its own lounges to offer those amenities.
Now the automaker is trying a new approach through a partnership with bk World that developed a new deployable cube lounge that includes a bunch of amenities – many of them automated:


> “bk World of course offers bathroom facilities, while a comfortable lounge area invites drivers to linger. But the concept is far more extensive. For instance, it makes extremely efficient use of the small footprint. Various products are dispensed in a fully automated way. The food that drivers can purchase on site is healthy, fresh, and low in sugar. When selecting the product portfolio, the planners deliberately avoided working with large corporations and chose instead to focus on keeping things regional and sustainable. Together with entrepreneur and investor Marcell Jansen, work is even going on to develop an innovative and healthy food portfolio especially for bk World.”



Drivers have to sign into an app in order to access the lounge:




Inside, you access different food, drinks, and even some electronics through a very high-tech automated vending machine:




Outside, there’s even a machine that can make fresh pizza for you in about four minutes:




Most importantly, the deployable air-conditioned cubes are equipped with full restrooms:




In the lounge area, there’s a Nintendo Switch for kids – big or small:




There are also seating areas with electrical outlets for people to work or charge their devices:




bk World says that the lounges are easily deployable and can be moved quickly:


> bk World is made up of what are known as Qubes – modular, transportable room elements that can be combined in a number of ways to meet a wide variety of space requirements on site. When a charging facility grows, its bk World can grow with it. Qubes can be assembled, disassembled, and relocated in a very short time. This is particularly good news for property owners, but also for charging facility operators. If a lease expires, bk World offers the greatest possible flexibility. The smallest version, with a lounge area and bathroom Qube, takes up around 50 square metres – but there is no upper size limit to bk World. This reduces material waste and makes demolitions a thing of the past. And bk World’s inherent adaptability makes it easier to find suitable locations.



While this is the first station using this new technology, the company says that it has 300 locations planned across Europe:


> The bk World in Endsee is now open and ready to welcome all visitors to the Tesla charging park. But this first location is just the beginning: in the next five years, bk World Holding GmbH plans to open 300 locations across Europe. bk World is coming soon to charging parks run by the largest charge spot operators and energy providers – to the benefit of customers, retailers, and the environment.



It’s unclear how many of those are in partnership with Tesla.
Here, Out of Specs visited the station and took a look inside the lounge. You can check the video here:


----------



## orr

A little snip from the Autoline channel last week noted Tesla repurchase loyalty at 71% , any other maker would give their lower ball joints to get over 50; and sales oblitorating BMW and Mercs in there class.

And the 200 day moving just being crossed.


----------



## JohnDe

The SP has been slowly going up from May lows of US$628


----------



## moXJO

JohnDe said:


> The SP has been slowly going up from May lows of US$628
> 
> View attachment 144921



Lucked my way in at $700s. Waiting on the stock split pump now.


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> Lucked my way in at $700s. Waiting on the stock split pump now.




Well played. I am also waiting on the stock split 🍻


----------



## moXJO

I know many are long term holders. But was it better to sell after the stock split last time, or before?


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> I know many are long term holders. But was it better to sell after the stock split last time, or before?




I've only been involved in one sock split, and that one the SP went up significantly. That is no indication of what will happen this time around, the whole world has changed and competition is heating up. I personally believe that the SP will continue to grow and there will be more splits in the future. 

DYOR


----------



## moXJO

JohnDe said:


> I've only been involved in one sock split, and that one the SP went up significantly. That is no indication of what will happen this time around, the whole world has changed and competition is heating up. I personally believe that the SP will continue to grow and there will be more splits in the future.
> 
> DYOR



The climate is pretty negative and it seems for now that the low $900s is the ceiling. 

Bit of a gamble that the split may bring on a bit more profits due to the lower price and fanboy exuberance. 
Lucky for me I'm a gambling man. 

Just need good jobs data tonight for some positive vibes.


----------



## sptrawler

moXJO said:


> The climate is pretty negative and it seems for now that the low $900s is the ceiling.
> 
> Bit of a gamble that the split may bring on a bit more profits due to the lower price and fanboy exuberance.
> Lucky for me I'm a gambling man.
> 
> Just need good jobs data tonight for some positive vibes.



I wonder if the gloss is coming off Tesla myself, I'm not trying to be negative and Tesla have and are doing amazing things, but when you set the achievement bar as high as Tesla has it is hard to maintain it.
For example the battery giga factories, they soak up a lot of money not only in materials but in maintaining market domination in a rapidly changing field.
From an @JohnDe post:
_The mysterious new Tesla order to the world's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer CATL turned out to be not of its novel Kirin batteries, but of LFP packs. Not your regular LFP battery, though, rather a greatly improved chemistry with higher density slated for the Model Y.
Daniel Zlatev, 08/03/2022
E-Mobility

The world's largest EV battery maker CATL recently announced a novel Kirin batterytechnology that allows for higher energy density than Tesla's 4680 battery cells in the same footprint. It then became clear that Tesla has ordered CATL a new type of battery than the LFP ones it already supplies for the Model 3 units made in the Shanghai Gigafactory.
Bets at the time were that Tesla might have ordered the 4680-style cells, despite that it now counts LG and Samsung among its suppliers for them, besides the original partner in the battery's development Panasonic. Now, however, local media is reporting that CATL will be selling Tesla its even more novel, M3P battery technology. It is similar to the improved LFP battery chemistry with added manganese, the so-called LMFP packs, but CATL insists that its technology is different and proprietary._

I mentioned a long time ago, i couldn't understand why Tesla doesn't outsource it battery manufacturing to a battery specialist, will the giga factories become an albatross, will the be sold?
The Tesla business model and share price reflects a lot of blue sky assumptions, once clouds start appearing, some punters get nervous.


----------



## moXJO

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if the gloss is coming off Tesla myself, I'm not trying to be negative and Tesla have and are doing amazing things, but when you set the achievement bar as high as Tesla has it is hard to maintain it.
> For example the battery giga factories, they soak up a lot of money not only in materials but in maintaining market domination in a rapidly changing field.
> From an @JohnDe post:
> _The mysterious new Tesla order to the world's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer CATL turned out to be not of its novel Kirin batteries, but of LFP packs. Not your regular LFP battery, though, rather a greatly improved chemistry with higher density slated for the Model Y.
> Daniel Zlatev, 08/03/2022
> E-Mobility
> 
> The world's largest EV battery maker CATL recently announced a novel Kirin batterytechnology that allows for higher energy density than Tesla's 4680 battery cells in the same footprint. It then became clear that Tesla has ordered CATL a new type of battery than the LFP ones it already supplies for the Model 3 units made in the Shanghai Gigafactory.
> Bets at the time were that Tesla might have ordered the 4680-style cells, despite that it now counts LG and Samsung among its suppliers for them, besides the original partner in the battery's development Panasonic. Now, however, local media is reporting that CATL will be selling Tesla its even more novel, M3P battery technology. It is similar to the improved LFP battery chemistry with added manganese, the so-called LMFP packs, but CATL insists that its technology is different and proprietary._
> 
> I mentioned a long time ago, i couldn't understand why Tesla doesn't outsource it battery manufacturing to a battery specialist, will the giga factories become an albatross, will the be sold?
> The Tesla business model and share price reflects a lot of blue sky assumptions, once clouds start appearing, some punters get nervous.



I'm in the mind of getting out quick. I'll follow the charts and see. 

True believer bases are generally pretty solid though. Bitcoin, apple, Tesla, Berkshire etc they all have that fanatical base that will just keep buying. 
I love em. When they get all worked up it's easy cash. You also get group tards like Wall Street Bets getting runs with straight out stupidity.

Anyway let's see if the stock splits going to pay off.


----------



## sptrawler

moXJO said:


> I'm in the mind of getting out quick. I'll follow the charts and see.
> 
> True believer bases are generally pretty solid though. Bitcoin, apple, Tesla, Berkshire etc they all have that fanatical base that will just keep buying.
> I love em. When they get all worked up it's easy cash. You also get group tards like Wall Street Bets getting runs with straight out stupidity.
> 
> Anyway let's see if the stock splits going to pay off.



Yes you are spot on, I'm always way too conservative, i'll never be rich.


----------



## JohnDe

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if the gloss is coming off Tesla myself, I'm not trying to be negative and Tesla have and are doing amazing things, but when you set the achievement bar as high as Tesla has it is hard to maintain it.
> For example the battery giga factories, they soak up a lot of money not only in materials but in maintaining market domination in a rapidly changing field.
> From an @JohnDe post:
> _The mysterious new Tesla order to the world's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer CATL turned out to be not of its novel Kirin batteries, but of LFP packs. Not your regular LFP battery, though, rather a greatly improved chemistry with higher density slated for the Model Y.
> Daniel Zlatev, 08/03/2022
> E-Mobility
> 
> The world's largest EV battery maker CATL recently announced a novel Kirin batterytechnology that allows for higher energy density than Tesla's 4680 battery cells in the same footprint. It then became clear that Tesla has ordered CATL a new type of battery than the LFP ones it already supplies for the Model 3 units made in the Shanghai Gigafactory.
> Bets at the time were that Tesla might have ordered the 4680-style cells, despite that it now counts LG and Samsung among its suppliers for them, besides the original partner in the battery's development Panasonic. Now, however, local media is reporting that CATL will be selling Tesla its even more novel, M3P battery technology. It is similar to the improved LFP battery chemistry with added manganese, the so-called LMFP packs, but CATL insists that its technology is different and proprietary._
> 
> I mentioned a long time ago, i couldn't understand why Tesla doesn't outsource it battery manufacturing to a battery specialist, will the giga factories become an albatross, will the be sold?
> The Tesla business model and share price reflects a lot of blue sky assumptions, once clouds start appearing, some punters get nervous.




Some explanation on the reasons for Tesla's high price -


----------



## Trader X

Toyota's dreams of toppling Tesla are now a nightmare: What went wrong with the bZ4X EV?​"_Toyota__ in the USA recalling every single bZ4X sold to customers – and those yet to be delivered – after discovering the wheels on the vehicles could fall off while driving_."  

Really Toyota!!!  Definitely an own goal and free kick to Tesla.


----------



## basilio

Tesla has now produced 3 million electric cars.  Check out the cumulative sales graph.  Pretty impressive. Each point on the graph is a quarterly production figure.

At the end of 2018 Tesla had sold 500,000 cars. 3 1/2  years later they have reached 3 million cars and climbing exponentially









						Tesla (TSLA) announces it produced its 3 millionth electric car
					

Tesla has announced that it has recently produced its 3 millionth electric car since its inception back in 2004 (though production only started in 2008). During Tesla’s annual shareholder’s meeting today, CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla produced its 3 millionth vehicle over “the last few...




					electrek.co


----------



## orr

To your point Bas;
Anybody paying attention to the engineering going on sees this as a fate' complie'. In the last week you had Farley hand delivering a new Lightning to Munro and Associates to be pulled down to its rivets... And from that interview we know Ford's view of Munro; And we all know where TSLA sits in Munro's scope on the EV food chain. 
To go local;
listening to the snake-oil of the mouth piece of FCIA today on emission regulation ... it was backwater six finger bango blather. 
All i can say is thank technology for the ease of international trading.


----------



## CityIndex

Elon Musk is reportedly done selling Tesla shares, and may actually begin buying soon if the deal with Twitter falls through. 

$TSLA has pulled back over the last few days, failing to hold its break above the 200-day MA and $900. Of course, all trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how traders react when US markets re-open, whether the stock can retest these key levels.


----------



## henrietta

Elon cashing in at a decent price, and why not. He's in it to make money, so sell in the good times. Plenty of electric vehicle competition coming his way.
I'm wondering if his interest in cars has been sated, and now he's looking at other projects.

Cheers
J


----------



## JohnDe

henrietta said:


> Elon cashing in at a decent price, and why not. He's in it to make money, so sell in the good times. Plenty of electric vehicle competition coming his way.
> I'm wondering if his interest in cars has been sated, and now he's looking at other projects.
> 
> Cheers
> J




I think you have misunderstood CityIndex’s post. Have another read.


----------



## henrietta

JohnDe said:


> I think you have misunderstood CityIndex’s post. Have another read.



I was commenting on the reported second large sale of Tesla by Musk. This was done with no prior warning as per the previous sale.
Musk may well have stopped selling , but his latest move indicates that he does not necessarily tell everyone what he is about to do.
Cheers
J


----------



## JohnDe

TSLA will be closely watched on Monday mornings NASDAQ (Tuesday for us).


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> Lucked my way in at $700s. Waiting on the stock split pump now.




Not long now.



> TSLA Is a Must-Buy Ahead of the Aug. 17 Tesla Stock Split​TSLA stock is likely to ride higher on split mania as well as on upcoming EV models
> 
> *Tesla* (*TSLA*) will enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17.
> Also, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased the upcoming release of two new vehicle models.
> Investors should hold at least a few TSLA stock shares prior to the split.
> *Tesla* (NASDAQ:*TSLA*) stock hasn’t looked this good in a while.
> 
> Not long ago, the company revealed that the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer plans to enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17. Furthermore, CEO Elon Musk tweeted a hint that two new EV models will be shipped out.
> 
> For these reasons, or just because Tesla is a premier business and a pioneer in vehicle electrification, you should consider owning TSLA stock now.
> 
> Make no mistake about it: Musk is a controversial figure. Everybody and his uncle has been talking about how Musk sold nearly $7 billion worth of Tesla shares recently. Yet, you don’t have to let this distract you from the more important developments surrounding Tesla.
> 
> Musk is, among other things, a master of using the media to generate attention for Tesla. He teased a couple of new vehicle models recently, and this could generate investor interest in Tesla. Besides, the upcoming share split will likely entice more people into the trade.
> 
> Musk Teases Two New Tesla Vehicle Models​As I mentioned before, Musk is masterful when it comes to using the media to generate buzz for Tesla. That’s exactly what he did when he recently tweeted, “Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year, Cybertruck next year.”
> 
> This tweet immediately made the financial headlines, so Musk can say, “Mission accomplished.” The Cybertruck is Tesla’s version of a pickup truck, so truckers who’ve hesitated to join the vehicle electrification movement might now be persuaded to give Tesla’s electric truck a try.
> 
> Along with all of this, you can simply hold TSLA stock because the company is an EV-market powerhouse. As you may recall, Tesla’s revenue jumped 42% year over year in 2022’s second quarter. Figures like this should remind us all that Musk’s company was, and still remains, an EV pioneer.
> 
> What You Can Do Now​For all of the reasons discussed here, feel free to add to your share position in Tesla prior to Aug. 17. And if you don’t have a position already, now’s a great time to start one.
> 
> Otherwise, you may regret it as stock-split mania could push TSLA stock much higher. Eventually, even after the split, the stock might reach $1,000 and then some.




*DYOR*


----------



## moXJO

JohnDe said:


> Not long now.
> 
> 
> 
> *DYOR*



I loaded up. Hope there isn't a market crash in the meantime. 
After a bit of research, it's shocking how far behind the competition are. From engineering, software, production the competition are nowhere near spitting distance. 

Now it's just the worry that everything is in a stimulus cash bubble.


----------



## JohnDe

Some wise words spoken


----------



## mullokintyre

Got an email from volvo to say that the car we have already paid 5000 bucks deposit for  has experienced delays, and will now ship in early 2023.
the first of a couple of such letters I expect.
mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Got an email from volvo to say that the car we have already paid 5000 bucks deposit for  has experienced delays, and will now ship in early 2023.
> the first of a couple of such letters I expect.
> mick




Wow, that is a big deposit. Volvo should offer interest payments to the owner until delivery.


----------



## JohnDe

Are they right or delusional?


----------



## moXJO

One more sleep till stock split.


----------



## orr

Mooody's reasoning for a denial of investment grade statis is one for the history books, so best left to those that write the history.

Although only one metric; when under the financial microscope TSLA's, Alltman z-score, keeeps me warm in the cold nights.


----------



## JohnDe

Tesla vs Dan O'Dowd - Lawsuit Imminent​Tesla served a Cease & Desist letter on Dan O'Dowd, the first step toward a lawsuit for commercial defamation or business disparagement.


----------



## moXJO

I was stopped out of position a couple days back. No pump in this environment. What a shame, a bit disappointed. Ok profit I suppose. Crypto has really ruined my expectations.

I kept a small position as I do like the outlook. I might buy in lower. There's a lot of caution out there. So will be reviewing all prices down some more.


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> I was stopped out of position a couple days back. No pump in this environment. What a shame, a bit disappointed. Ok profit I suppose. Crypto has really ruined my expectations.
> 
> I kept a small position as I do like the outlook. I might buy in lower. There's a lot of caution out there. So will be reviewing all prices down some more.




I purchased at their low point, still hanging on for the long run.


----------



## JohnDe

> *Best Electric Car 2022: The verdict*
> 
> From 13 of the newest and most affordable EVs on sale in Australia, there’s only one that earns the title of Best Electric Car 2022
> 
> 1. Tesla Model 3​After taking out carsales’ Best Electric Car award in 2021, the Tesla Model 3 has done it again for 2022.
> That’s no mean feat considering the bigger and better field of EVs lining up this year to dethrone the US brand’s outstanding mid-size sedan.
> But the 2022 Tesla Model 3 has held its ground, holding its position in the face of stronger competition from other brands and within its own stable.
> Many of the points noted above for the Tesla Model Y also apply to the Model 3. It’s not perfect, missing a few features that its rivals offer, but by the same token Tesla has set a benchmark that others are still trying to reach.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Despite being more expensive than it was a year ago, the Model 3 still represents great value, measured not only by what you get for the outlay, but the grin factor brought with every drive.
> It’s engaging, fun and quick. The driving range is long. The tech highlights are bountiful. The running costs are low, yet the resale value is high.
> This might be the entry point to the Tesla range, but the Model 3 RWD never allows the owner to feel short-changed. In fact, it achieves the opposite.
> It’s a clear winner of carsales’ Best Electric Car 2022.
> *How much does the 2022 Tesla Model 3 RWD cost?
> Price:* $65,500 (plus on-road costs)
> *Available:* Now
> *Powertrain:* Single permanent magnet synchronous motor
> *Output:* 194kW/340Nm
> *Transmission:* Single-speed reduction gear
> *Battery:* 60kWh lithium-iron phosphate
> *Range:* 491km (WLTP)
> *Energy consumption:* 13.4kWh/100km (WLTP)
> *Safety rating:* Five-star (ANCAP 2019)
> 
> 
> 2. Tesla Model Y​The Tesla Model Y has finally arrived in Australia and the much-anticipated mid-size SUV has very nearly taken out carsales’ Best Electric Car 2022.
> There are close connections with the Tesla Model 3 wherever one turns, but ultimately the Tesla Model Y is more expensive, and bigger and heavier on its feet, than its mid-size sedan sibling.
> That counts against it in areas such as driving performance and ownership costs, but it’s really only a matter of degrees between the US brand’s two EVs.
> Against the bulk of our field, across all areas of assessment, the Tesla Model Y stacks up strongly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Exceptions to the rule? Insurance costs are high and replacing tyres on the Model Y proves to be more expensive than every other electric car on test. Its safety suite also misses rear cross traffic alert.
> But here’s an EV that goes the extra mile with its features (two wireless charging pads), never fails to impress with its party tricks (using your phone as a key), exercises the brain (no instrument panel behind the steering wheel), offers a sporty and engaging drive, runs for long distances before needing to recharge and, for an extra layer of reassurance, will hold its value well when it comes time to sell.
> *How much does the 2022 Tesla Model Y RWD cost?
> Price:* $72,300 (plus on-road costs)
> *Available:* Now
> *Powertrain:* Single permanent magnet synchronous motor
> *Output:* 194kW/340Nm
> *Transmission:* Single-speed reduction gear
> *Battery:* 60kWh lithium-iron phosphate
> *Range:* 455km (WLTP)
> *Energy consumption:* 14.6kWh/100km (WLTP)
> *Safety rating:* Five-star (ANCAP 2022)
> 
> 
> 3. Hyundai Kona Electric​The 2022 Hyundai Kona Electric is perhaps a surprise third placegetter in carsales’ Best Electric Car this year, given the quality of the field and the fact that it has snuck in – by a mere half point – ahead of the more advanced IONIQ 5.
> Kona isn’t the show pony in the Korean brand’s electrified vehicle stable, but performs strongly across our assessment criteria – including cost of ownership, where the IONIQ falls down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not only does it have resale value on its side, but the Kona Electric is the absolute standout in our field for the lowest running costs over the first five years, thanks to extremely low servicing charges and highly competitive costs for energy, tyre replacement and insurance.
> Elsewhere, the Kona Electric is more middle of the road, or above average, than magnificent.
> That’s true for its driving performance, which is hobbled by a 305km driving range, while there are detail points across safety, tech and comfort and convenience that combine to keep daylight between Kona Electric and our two top-ranking models.
> *How much does the 2022 Hyundai Kona Electric Standard Range Elite cost?
> Price:* $54,500 (plus on-road costs)
> *Available:* Now
> *Powertrain:* Single permanent magnet synchronous motor
> *Output:* 100kW/395Nm
> *Transmission:* Single-speed reduction gear
> *Battery:* 39.2kWh lithium-ion polymer
> *Range:* 305km (WLTP)
> *Energy consumption:* 14.3kWh/100km (WLTP)
> *Safety rating:* Five-star (ANCAP 2017)


----------



## moXJO

JohnDe said:


> I purchased at their low point, still hanging on for the long run.



I've got a decent amount still on it. I think it's a good buy. It's not often I hold stock.
But it was an overly large position I had on it. Didn't pop so I took profit and have another opportunity at something else.


----------



## JohnDe

‘Logical sense’: Hint of Elon Musk’s plans for Australia​Australia’s most senior Tesla executive has dropped a big hint about what Elon Musk could do Down Under.​


			https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/logical-sense-hint-of-elon-musks-plans-for-australia/news-story/063ce844c855d1a3086a8fe7cf819c66#l8a4v4jaxj9hllzbhai


----------



## orr

or search ...
<tesla ira birth of a green-shoring powerhouse>

for the twitter link... then the 3 page Morgan Stanley/Jonas report...


----------



## SirRumpole

A third of Tesla's overall production recalled.

If they can't get power windows right, Allah help the FSD.



			https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/tesla-recalls-11-million-cars-to-address-window-problem/news-story/40f668083ed781d8d74da5ef13321be4


----------



## JohnDe

SirRumpole said:


> A third of Tesla's overall production recalled.
> 
> If they can't get power windows right, Allah help the FSD.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/tesla-recalls-11-million-cars-to-address-window-problem/news-story/40f668083ed781d8d74da5ef13321be4




Do you know how the Tesla recall happens?











						Why Tesla's 1.1M Vehicle Window Recall Isn't That Big of a Deal
					

Tesla is recalling over one million vehicles—or is it?




					www.makeuseof.com


----------



## JohnDe

SirRumpole said:


> If they can't get power windows right, Allah help the FSD.





*Euro NCAP published the latest round of tests. Its safety assist score was an almost-perfect 98%, proving to the world that Tesla’s assistance systems are top-notch.*









						Tesla Model Y Euro NCAP Results Show Dan O'Dowd and the World That FSD Is Top Class
					

Tesla Model Y is the king of automotive safety after Euro NCAP published the latest round of tests. Its safety assist score was an almost-perfect 98%, pr...




					www.autoevolution.com


----------



## SirRumpole

JohnDe said:


> *Euro NCAP published the latest round of tests. Its safety assist score was an almost-perfect 98%, proving to the world that Tesla’s assistance systems are top-notch.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla Model Y Euro NCAP Results Show Dan O'Dowd and the World That FSD Is Top Class
> 
> 
> Tesla Model Y is the king of automotive safety after Euro NCAP published the latest round of tests. Its safety assist score was an almost-perfect 98%, pr...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.autoevolution.com




I hope it continues.


----------



## JohnDe

SirRumpole said:


> I hope it continues.




_"__*According to Euro NCAP*__, Tesla Model Y made at Giga Berlin was the safest vehicle ever tested bar none. In the Safety Assist department, the Model Y with camera-only Tesla Vision blew away the charts, with a near-perfect 98% score._​​_But you don’t have to take our words for granted, just head below and watch the video. Starting at 02:33, you’ll see the Tesla Model Y expertly avoiding whatever the testers threw its way, from moving dummies to other vehicles. Not once the safety assist software showed a weakness, which explains why the safety score was the highest ever achieved by any car."_​


----------



## SirRumpole

JohnDe said:


> _"__*According to Euro NCAP*__, Tesla Model Y made at Giga Berlin was the safest vehicle ever tested bar none. In the Safety Assist department, the Model Y with camera-only Tesla Vision blew away the charts, with a near-perfect 98% score._​​_But you don’t have to take our words for granted, just head below and watch the video. Starting at 02:33, you’ll see the Tesla Model Y expertly avoiding whatever the testers threw its way, from moving dummies to other vehicles. Not once the safety assist software showed a weakness, which explains why the safety score was the highest ever achieved by any car."_​




I'd like to see what it would do if it h ad to decide between running head on into a truck or running over a child. Would owners be happy to be martyred to save an innocent life?


----------



## JohnDe

SirRumpole said:


> I'd like to see what it would do if it h ad to decide between running head on into a truck or running over a child. Would owners be happy to be martyred to save an innocent life?






 ...*.the extremely tricky problems associated with more complex A.I. and their decision making*


----------



## Value Collector

SirRumpole said:


> A third of Tesla's overall production recalled.
> 
> If they can't get power windows right, Allah help the FSD.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/tesla-recalls-11-million-cars-to-address-window-problem/news-story/40f668083ed781d8d74da5ef13321be4



This should give you confidence in Tesla Because.

1. They are the ones that discovered the problem.

2. They are the ones that volunteered to do the “recall”.

3, it’s being fixed with an over the air update.

Where another manufacturer 

1. Probably wouldn’t have found the fault until someone actually got their finger pinched and complained.

2. probably wouldn’t have done a recall because it would be seen as to minor and wouldn’t generate large lawsuits.

3. Probably have no way of doing over the air software fixes so would have to get 1.1 Million vehicles into service centres.


----------



## SirRumpole

Value Collector said:


> This should give you confidence in Tesla Because.
> 
> 1. They are the ones that discovered the problem.
> 
> 2. They are the ones that volunteered to do the “recall”.
> 
> 3, it’s being fixed with an over the air update.
> 
> Where another manufacturer
> 
> 1. Probably wouldn’t have found the fault until someone actually got their finger pinched and complained.
> 
> 2. probably wouldn’t have done a recall because it would be seen as to minor and wouldn’t generate large lawsuits.
> 
> 3. Probably have no way of doing over the air software fixes so would have to get 1.1 Million vehicles into service centres.




Quite true.

However electric window software should be pretty simple, why couldn't they get it right first off ?

And why do they need software anyway, other manufacturers make do with a switch.


----------



## Value Collector

SirRumpole said:


> I'd like to see what it would do if it h ad to decide between running head on into a truck or running over a child. Would owners be happy to be martyred to save an innocent life?



That’s a very specific far fetched example. 

In reality, in the Billions of km’s already driven by autopilot that exact scenario has probably never come up, so it’s not something that you should worry about.

In fact just having autopilot on probably stops a ship load of head ons, eg if you are going to have a head on with a truck it’s probably because either you or the truck driver was distracted or fell asleep at the wheel, where autopilot would have saved you.

As far as a kid running on to the road, just slamming on the breaks and staying in your lane is going to do the job most of the time.


----------



## Value Collector

SirRumpole said:


> Quite true.
> 
> However electric window software should be pretty simple, why couldn't they get it right first off ?



Ask all the other car manufacturers that don’t even have obstruction detection and auto reverse to begin with.

What happens in your car if you wind the window up on your finger? I bet it just squished your finger.

Tesla are basically just making a good feature better here.


----------



## SirRumpole

Value Collector said:


> Ask all the other car manufacturers that don’t even have obstruction detection and auto reverse to begin with.
> 
> What happens in your car if you wind the window up on your finger? I bet it just squished your finger.
> 
> Tesla are basically just making a good feature better here.




That's nice of them. All the best to them.

If I was a Tesla shareholder I might be a bit worried about the possibilities of class actions when complicated systems go wrong.

But I must admit I wouldn't mind a Tesla with self drive. I don't have much to lose at my age.


----------



## Macquack

Value Collector said:


> Ask all the other car manufacturers that don’t even have obstruction detection and auto reverse to begin with.
> 
> What happens in your car if you wind the window up on your finger? I bet it just squished your finger.
> 
> Tesla are basically just making a good feature better here.



Sounds like a "Claytons" Recall. Recall fixed by an Over-the-Air software update.

This Recall must have been instigated by the marketing department. Good P.R.

Tesla says " it is not aware of any injuries or deaths related to the window problem." Says it all.


----------



## JohnDe

SirRumpole said:


> That's nice of them. All the best to them.
> 
> If I was a Tesla shareholder I might be a bit worried about the possibilities of class actions when complicated systems go wrong.
> 
> But I must admit I wouldn't mind a Tesla with self drive. I don't have much to lose at my age.




Share holder for a few years now, and very happy with my gains 😊


----------



## moXJO

Interesting seeing the elonbot the other day. Social media widely mocked it. But people are stupid for not seeing this for what it is. 

Bringing a robot to the masses for $20k range will be the dawn of a new age. It will have huge ramifications (both good and bad). Productivity alone would jump massively.

Obviously it's a way off.
But it will completely change society.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

JohnDe said:


> Do you know how the Tesla recall happens?



I think you upload some software and the car returns itself to the service centre.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Interesting seeing the elonbot the other day. Social media widely mocked it. But people are stupid for not seeing this for what it is.
> 
> Bringing a robot to the masses for $20k range will be the dawn of a new age. It will have huge ramifications (both good and bad). Productivity alone would jump massively.
> 
> Obviously it's a way off.
> But it will completely change society.



Also there is a bigger picture to it.

Other companies have some bot hardware that can do interesting things like flips and jogging etc that the Tesla boys hardware can’t match yet. but the hardware improvements will come.

But, the Tesla Bots strength is going to be its software, its ability to navigate through the world and complete a variety of tasks will be what makes the big difference.

Think about it as being the difference between a Tesla with Full self driving vs a car without.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Also there is a bigger picture to it.
> 
> Other companies have some bot hardware that can do interesting things like flips and jogging etc that the Tesla boys hardware can’t match yet. but the hardware improvements will come.
> 
> But, the Tesla Bots strength is going to be its software, its ability to navigate through the world and complete a variety of tasks will be what makes the big difference.
> 
> Think about it as being the difference between a Tesla with Full self driving vs a car without.



Makes you wonder if in the distant future there will be software upgrades for skills, or tasks. Downloading software so your robot can fix the car, or paint your house. 

God even something as mundane as mowing the lawn, or doing the washing. 

Big picture is a little scary though. Lots of jobs will simply be gone. Not just for us but also for a lot of visa holders that work in richer nations. There was talk of no longer needing money in a robotic future. But I only heard a snippet. Hard to wrap my head around.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Makes you wonder if in the distant future there will be software upgrades for skills, or tasks. Downloading software so your robot can fix the car, or paint your house.
> 
> God even something as mundane as mowing the lawn, or doing the washing.
> 
> Big picture is a little scary though. Lots of jobs will simply be gone. Not just for us but also for a lot of visa holders that work in richer nations. There was talk of no longer needing money in a robotic future. But I only heard a snippet. Hard to wrap my head around.



Yep, there will 100% be software upgrades and updates regularly.

It’s not scary, it’s amazing and necessary.

Think about how important it will be to have have robots in a world with an ageing population and a falling birth rate.

Sure robots are definitely going to take away a lot of jobs, but that will just free up the work force to focus on other areas.

To be honest I think there is a large amount of the work force that would like to retire earlier than 70, work less hours or less days per week.

If Robots can boost over all productivity and output, while requiring less human hours of input, that’s got to be a great thing.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Yep, there will 100% be software upgrades and updates regularly.
> 
> It’s not scary, it’s amazing and necessary.
> 
> Think about how important it will be to have have robots in a world with an ageing population and a falling birth rate.
> 
> Sure robots are definitely going to take away a lot of jobs, but that will just free up the work force to focus on other areas.
> 
> To be honest I think there is a large amount of the work force that would like to retire earlier than 70, work less hours or less days per week.
> 
> If Robots can boost over all productivity and output, while requiring less human hours of input, that’s got to be a great thing.



If you have money it will be amazing. Living in a dictatorship in some third world shthole might not be catching the sunshine. 

Literally everything with the way the world is run will have to change imo before everyone truly benefits.  But maybe that's already in motion.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> If you have money it will be amazing. Living in a dictatorship in some third world shthole might not be catching the sunshine.
> 
> Literally everything with the way the world is run will have to change imo before everyone truly benefits.  But maybe that's already in motion.



Machines and automation have been making the economy less labour intensive for a couple of hundred years.

Robots are just a continuation of a well established trend, nothing to fear, human labour will just be augmented and redirected, freed up into higher value areas.

For example, imagine  a situation where the current over worked and rushed nurses in a nursing home each have two robot “helpers” they can delegate the most mundane tasks to, and there fore free up their time to give more human one on one care to patients. 

Some people freaked out when self checkouts popped up, saying that cashiers were going to lose their jobs on mass, but instead now more labour has been redirected to serving customers in other ways, such as filling click and collect orders etc.


----------



## JohnDe

Musk has painted a target on his back, Tesla now needs to deliver in more ways than one - 



> *Musk says Pepsi to receive Tesla's first Semi trucks in December*
> 
> Oct 6 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) is starting Semi electric commercial truck production and PepsiCo Inc will get the first deliveries on Dec. 1, the electric vehicle maker's chief Elon Musk tweeted on Thursday.
> 
> When Musk unveiled the prototype of the futuristic, battery-powered Semi in 2017, he said the Class 8 truck would go into production by 2019.
> 
> However, the timeline has been pushed multiple times due to part shortages and Musk said the production would be delayed to next year. In August, he announced the planned production of the truck.
> 
> In another tweet, Musk reiterated that the vehicle has a range of 500 miles (805 km). It was not immediately clear how many Semi trucks the electric vehicle maker plans to produce.
> 
> The truck is expected to cost $180,000, although it would qualify for a tax break of up to $40,000 under a U.S. subsidy program approved by the Senate.
> 
> Back in 2017, PepsiCo reserved 100 of Tesla's semi electric trucks as it sought to reduce fuel costs and fleet emissions.
> 
> In an interview with CNBC last year, PepsiCo's top boss Ramon Laguarta had said transportation accounted for 10% of the company's gas emissions.
> 
> The maker of Mountain Dew soda and Doritos chips had previously said it aims to use the trucks to ship snack foods and beverages between manufacturing and distribution centers as well as to retailers.
> 
> PepsiCo did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment.


----------



## moXJO

Was buying up at $200 but had to add funds. Now it's pumped a bit so here's hoping it falls back so I get another stab at it.


----------



## Value Collector

The future is looking pretty bright for Tesla, it looks like with its exisiting factories and car models it should be able to keep growing its sales by about 50% per year for the next few years.

Then of course they have the Tesla Semi, Cyber truck and Roadster on the way, not to mention the energy storage business.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> The future is looking pretty bright for Tesla, it looks like with its exisiting factories and car models it should be able to keep growing its sales by about 50% per year for the next few years.
> 
> Then of course they have the Tesla Semi, Cyber truck and Roadster on the way, not to mention the energy storage business.



I like the overall outlook. To me, the company looks good.

However this bear market doesn't feel like it's hit bottom.
I'm a little worried it can fall to $150-$120.
Not sure about the twitter sign over on Friday either.
Then there's the election.
A lot of stuff going on.


Flogged a few off at $230 to try and raise my free carries.


----------



## noirua




----------



## SirRumpole

noirua said:


> View attachment 148959




Crickets from the Musk luvvies so far.


----------



## Value Collector

SirRumpole said:


> Crickets from the Musk luvvies so far.



Markets fluctuate it’s not a big deal, it could actually be a good thing for Tesla considering they might be doing a $10 Billion share buy back, if that goes ahead you want the share price to be low.


----------



## SirRumpole

Value Collector said:


> Markets fluctuate it’s not a big deal, it could actually be a good thing for Tesla considering they might be doing a $10 Billion share buy back, if that goes ahead you want the share price to be low.




Why would people sell their shares back at a loss ?

If I was a Tesla shareholder I'd say "if you want my shares, make it worth my while ".


----------



## Value Collector

SirRumpole said:


> Why would people sell their shares back at a loss ?
> 
> If I was a Tesla shareholder I'd say "if you want my shares, make it worth my while ".



People are selling shares on the share market every day, a buy back just means that the company starts buying some and cancelling them, obviously the people that think it’s worth more won’t sell their shares, but millions of shares will be traded everyday regardless.

Also, the current price is still  over a 1000% higher than it was a few years ago, so not everyone is selling at a lose.


----------



## Value Collector

Value Collector said:


> Also, the current price is still  over a 1000% higher than it was a few years ago, so not everyone is selling at a lose.



I just ran some numbers and 3 years ago when I bought my Tesla (Car), the share price was only $16.06 today it’s over $190.

So even after the recent share price decline, if I had purchase Tesla shares instead of a Tesla car, those shares would be worth $880,000 today, some how I don’t think a lot of Tesla share holders are to stressed.


----------



## noirua

SirRumpole said:


> Why would people sell their shares back at a loss ?
> 
> If I was a Tesla shareholder I'd say "if you want my shares, make it worth my while ".



A number of well heeled people are now shorting TESLA. One lost US$700,000 shorting on the way up. Now says he is nearly back all square. He has a big following also in the United States. Rumours say Elon Musk is wary of his personal cash position and that of Tesla as they buy into miners in Mexico and Australia.  TESLA are due to set up a new Lithium refining plant in Mexico tying in with a major Chinese partner.








						A Tesla factory in Mexico? Elon Musk meets with Nuevo Leon state officials, reports say
					

Photographers spotted Tesla CEO Elon Musk in northern Mexico meeting with economic officials. Local media suggested Musk could be looking for plant space or meeting with suppliers.




					www.autonews.com


----------



## Value Collector

noirua said:


> A number of well heeled people are now shorting TESLA. One lost US$700,000 shorting on the way up. Now says he is nearly back all square. He has a big following also in the United States. Rumours say Elon Musk is wary of his personal cash position and that of Tesla as they buy into miners in Mexico and Australia.  TESLA are due to set up a new Lithium refining plant in Mexico tying in with a major Chinese partner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Tesla factory in Mexico? Elon Musk meets with Nuevo Leon state officials, reports say
> 
> 
> Photographers spotted Tesla CEO Elon Musk in northern Mexico meeting with economic officials. Local media suggested Musk could be looking for plant space or meeting with suppliers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.autonews.com



I don’t know about musks personal bank accounts, But Tesla ended the last quarter with over $20 Billion in cash on hand, despite also making large capital expenditures.

Tesla are generating a lot of cash these days, hence why they might be doing a $10 Billion buy back to get rid of some of that cash.


----------



## moXJO

SirRumpole said:


> Crickets from the Musk luvvies so far.



I'll start buying again between $100-$200. 

I think two things are happening. We had money disappear from the system (bubble popped). Then we have a targeted campaign of fear, plus some bad news out of Teslas control (eg China lockdowns, material shortages).

Tesla cops a lot of hate and as much as musk annoys the sht out of me at times. The guy is fantastic at getting to a result and cutting out bloat.

I do believe this is the guy that will change the world. He is primed for delivering AI and robotics to the mainstream. Some real geniuses working with him as well. 

He knows to develop a saleable product early and keep developing it on the go. This method will see us reach that "Beyond 2000" TV program from the 80s visions.
The deeper I researched Elon the more I respected his ability, resolve, and vision.

This is a stock (probably the only one) that I'd accumulate for the long term.


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> I'll start buying again between $100-$200.
> 
> I think two things are happening. We had money disappear from the system (bubble popped). Then we have a targeted campaign of fear, plus some bad news out of Teslas control (eg China lockdowns, material shortages).
> 
> Tesla cops a lot of hate and as much as musk annoys the sht out of me at times. The guy is fantastic at getting to a result and cutting out bloat.
> 
> I do believe this is the guy that will change the world. He is primed for delivering AI and robotics to the mainstream. Some real geniuses working with him as well.
> 
> He knows to develop a saleable product early and keep developing it on the go. This method will see us reach that "Beyond 2000" TV program from the 80s visions.
> The deeper I researched Elon the more I respected his ability, resolve, and vision.
> 
> This is a stock (probably the only one) that I'd accumulate for the long term.




Agreed.

There is a very high chance of a stock buyback. 

*Tesla is flirting with its first-ever share buyback - and it's a signal the company thinks its stock is undervalued*









						Tesla is flirting with its first-ever share buyback - and it's a signal the company thinks its stock is undervalued
					

CEO Elon Musk told analysts late Wednesday that Tesla was considering a share buyback of $5 billion to $10 billion.




					markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> Agreed.
> 
> There is a very high chance of a stock buyback.
> 
> *Tesla is flirting with its first-ever share buyback - and it's a signal the company thinks its stock is undervalued*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla is flirting with its first-ever share buyback - and it's a signal the company thinks its stock is undervalued
> 
> 
> CEO Elon Musk told analysts late Wednesday that Tesla was considering a share buyback of $5 billion to $10 billion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> markets.businessinsider.com



That’s Apples play book, bring out a range of high demand products making decent profit margins and then divert excess cash to buy backs.

Tesla is getting to that stage where the cash will start building up faster than they can deploy it into new investments. Once that happens the only thing left to do is either clear debt, pay dividends or buy back shares.

1, clearing debt below certain interest rates is not attractive compared to buy backs if the share price is low.

2, paying Dividends is not as attractive either because the USA has a 15% tax on dividends.

3, buy backs don’t have to be consistent, where as people expect a certain level of consistency with dividends.


----------



## JohnDe

Value Collector said:


> That’s Apples play book, bring out a range of high demand products making decent profit margins and then divert excess cash to buy backs.
> 
> Tesla is getting to that stage where the cash will start building up faster than they can deploy it into new investments. Once that happens the only thing left to do is either clear debt, pay dividends or buy back shares.
> 
> 1, clearing debt below certain interest rates is not attractive compared to buy backs if the share price is low.
> 
> 2, paying Dividends is not as attractive either because the USA has a 15% tax on dividends.
> 
> 3, buy backs don’t have to be consistent, where as people expect a certain level of consistency with dividends.




Agreed. And having seen my accountant yesterday, business debt is good for tax reduction.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## moXJO

Damn it- I hope it doesn't run from here. I  need it to stay down.


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> Damn it- I hope it doesn't run from here. I  need it to stay down.



I read somewhere that November is usually good for stocks.

“Looking ahead to November, the conclusion of the third-quarter earnings season could bring more relief, and the month is historically one of the strongest of the year for stocks.”


----------



## moXJO

JohnDe said:


> I read somewhere that November is usually good for stocks.
> 
> “Looking ahead to November, the conclusion of the third-quarter earnings season could bring more relief, and the month is historically one of the strongest of the year for stocks.”



I wanted to buy more tonight. I think there was usually a rally after midterms. Especially if it's a split.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> I wanted to buy more tonight. I think there was usually a rally after midterms. Especially if it's a split.



Positive Inflation data caused a spike in USA, you might have missed your chance for now, or at least until the next news cycle causes people to panic of inflation again.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Positive Inflation data caused a spike in USA, you might have missed your chance for now, or at least until the next news cycle causes people to panic of inflation again.



I picked some up last night but ran out of funds in the ib account. It's such a pain dropping money into ib.

Yeah the data was good. I actually missed that the announcement was last night. Otherwise I  wouldn't have been so lazy to switch funds yesterday. 


I expect a rally from here. I'll keep my finger on the button though.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## basilio

I wonder about Elon Musks capacity to run Tesla and Twitter.  As far as I can see Twitter is taking all his energy and could be a total disaster. 
If the pressure Elon is putting on Twitter staff ends up sending the business south the financial implications for Elon would be serious.

On the bigger picture  I think Tesla could lose public and investor confidence as Elon struggles with Twitter. The fall in share prices may be reflecting this.


----------



## Value Collector

basilio said:


> I wonder about Elon Musks capacity to run Tesla and Twitter.  As far as I can see Twitter is taking all his energy and could be a total disaster.
> If the pressure Elon is putting on Twitter staff ends up sending the business south the financial implications for Elon would be serious.
> 
> On the bigger picture  I think Tesla could lose public and investor confidence as Elon struggles with Twitter. The fall in share prices may be reflecting this.



Billionaires always seem to want to either buy a newspaper or a sports team, I guess Twitter is Elons version of buying a news paper.


----------



## Belli

basilio said:


> I wonder about Elon Musks capacity to run Tesla and Twitter.  As far as I can see Twitter is taking all his energy and could be a total disaster.
> If the pressure Elon is putting on Twitter staff ends up sending the business south the financial implications for Elon would be serious.
> 
> On the bigger picture  I think Tesla could lose public and investor confidence as Elon struggles with Twitter. The fall in share prices may be reflecting this.




Indeed.  I have heard that the ultimatum to remaining staff (down 50% from the original number of 6,000) from the CEO to work harder or leave has resulted in 75% of the now 3,000 workforce opting to leave with three month severance pay.  On the calcs that leaves around 750 workers the majority of which are on work visas.

The CEO is going to be busy, busy, busy.


----------



## Belli

Well, well, well.









						After Elon Musk's Ultimatum, Twitter Employees Start Exiting
					

Hundreds of Twitter employees are estimated to be leaving the beleaguered social media company following an ultimatum from new owner Elon Musk that staffers sign up for "long hours at high intensity," or leave.




					www.ibtimes.com
				




"The company notified employees that it will close its offices and cut badge access until Monday, according to two sources. Security officers have begun kicking employees out of the office on Thursday evening, one source said."


----------



## moXJO

The left has turned on elon along with the media. There's a lot of stories floating around. 

Twitters workforce was spoilt rotten. Not that surprised it got whittled down.
The biggest danger to Elon is the amount of fake news being spread about him. He's the lefts new number one target. Bad for sales, revenue and reputation. 

I've backed away from Tesla for a bit. I'll bite small chunks at the lows maybe. But lefties vitriol can be very very damaging.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Looks like it's going to run.  So long as the broader market stays bouyant.


----------



## bluekelah

Tesla is like bitcoin, still an overvalued super growth stock, pure risk on play. They may still be expanding but in Chinese and European markets have more or less lost leadership position in EV. Valuations should trend towards other  big players in the market.


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> Tesla is like bitcoin, still an overvalued super growth stock, pure risk on play. They may still be expanding but in Chinese and European markets have more or less lost leadership position in EV. Valuations should trend towards other  big players in the market.




GM will get there soon, they have a plan.



> *GM Targets EV Profitability By 2025*
> 
> Despite continuing challenges with supply chains and an incredibly slow production ramp-up of new electric vehicles, General Motors is having a very good year financially and expects that to continue. During an investor day presentation in New York, CFO Paul Jacobson announced higher guidance for 2022 free cash flow and profits. GM also reconfirmed that it expects its EV lineup to be profitable by 2025.
> 
> One key step toward achieving the latter is by reducing lithium-ion cell costs to $87/kWh in 2025 and below $70/kWh by the end of the decade. GM is planning on capital expenditures of $11 billion to $13 billion annually through 2025 as it puts in place the manufacturing infrastructure to build 1 million EVs annually in North America by that time.
> 
> To achieve this, GM is retooling assembly plants in Detroit and Orion, Michigan; Spring Hill, Tennessee; Ramos Arizpe, Mexico and Ingersoll, Ontario. The automaker is also investing in 160 GWh per year of cell production through its Ultium Cells LLC joint venture. The cell JV will have four plants in Lordstown, Ohio, which is now in production; Spring Hill in 2023; Lansing, Michigan, in 2024 and a fourth location expected to be announced soon. Several component plants are also being reworked to produce EV parts.


----------



## Value Collector

bluekelah said:


> Tesla is like bitcoin, still an overvalued super growth stock, pure risk on play. They may still be expanding but in Chinese and European markets have more or less lost leadership position in EV. Valuations should trend towards other  big players in the market.



Tesla may be overvalued, but ut is growing so fast that it will eventually fill out its valuation and much more, Bitcoin however doesn't have anything of value inside it. So really Tesla is nothing like bitcoin.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

8%!

Elon is looking like a hero at Twitter because the previous boss (Agarwal) was a total chump.  It's like they _literally_ never did any work.  They couldn't organize an edit button for tweets over a period of 5 years.  Most website designers would probably be able to design and code an edit button in a day, wouldn't they?  Any website designers here...?


----------



## mullokintyre

Gringotts Bank said:


> 8%!
> 
> Elon is looking like a hero at Twitter because the previous boss (Agarwal) was a total chump.  It's like they _literally_ never did any work.  They couldn't organize an edit button for tweets over a period of 5 years.  Most website designers would probably be able to design and code an edit button in a day, wouldn't they?  Any website designers here...?



Well, first of all the button has got to want to be an edit button.
mick


----------



## JohnDe

> Franz von Holzhausen has been Tesla's chief designer since 2008. CNBC got a rare interview with him at the Peterson Automotive Museum in Los Angeles, which recently opened a new Tesla exhibit. He was a lead designer on the Tesla Model S, Model 3, Model X and Model Y as well as the Cybertruck, Tesla Semi truck and the second generation Roadster. Prior to Tesla, he worked in design at Mazda, General Motors, and Volkswagen. He speaks to CNBC about what it is like to have Elon Musk as a boss, what happened with the glass shattering windows at the Cybertruck unveil, and what is next for auto design.


----------



## moXJO

Competition isn't really close at all. 
Tesla's gigafactories about to pump out a lot more vehicles. Tesla also makes a huge profit on cars sold. 

The only downside is that musk is a mouthy bugger. It's possible I'm missing something but Tesla looks like a money machine with a lot of future growth.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Competition isn't really close at all.
> Tesla's gigafactories about to pump out a lot more vehicles. Tesla also makes a huge profit on cars sold.
> 
> The only downside is that musk is a mouthy bugger. It's possible I'm missing something but Tesla looks like a money machine with a lot of future growth.



Not to mention Teslas lead in charging infrastructure, and their stationary power storage business.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Not to mention Teslas lead in charging infrastructure, and their stationary power storage business.



The AI will lead to some interesting pathways.
Just hope he can get off his twitter addiction.


----------



## JohnDe

​
​​
​Tesla’s New 500-Mile-Range Semi Trucks Defy Skeptics​
By Sam Korus | @skorusARK
Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics​
Last week, Tesla delivered to PepsiCo the first in a 100-vehicle fleet of heavy-duty electric semi trucks with a driving range up to 500 miles.

Tesla demonstrated that, fully loaded, its semi truck made a 500-mile trip without recharging, thanks in part to its impressive regenerative braking capability. The semi truck traveled up and down the 4136 ft. Grapevine Mountain, which barely changed the slope of the battery usage curve, as shown below.






	

		
			
		

		
	
Source: Lambert, F. 2022 (https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/tesla-semi-delivering-disruptive-electric-truck/).

For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.

During the event, Tesla also disclosed the Cybertruck’s charging power. According to ARK’s research, Wright’s Law can forecast improvements in electric vehicle charging rates, as shown below. A useful metric that incorporates the efficiency, range, and power capabilities of battery systems is miles of range added per minute charged. Importantly, both the semi truck and the Cybertruck use 1 MW chargers. If it does deliver the Cybertruck with charging power as disclosed at this event, then Tesla could reach the EV performance that ARK had projected for 2026 in 2023, three years ahead of schedule!


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## moXJO

Media ran some fake news about Tesla cutting its China factory workforce by 20%.
Wonder who paid them off from their short position profits.

One of the reasons to be careful when its a targeted stock by political leaners.


----------



## moXJO

Breaking down again.  Had $150 as a target but honestly didn't think it would get there at the time. Can still go lower from here. I'll try and swing trade a few more free carries. 

I don't think there's much rush at the moment. Between Fed jacking rates and Elon p1ssing everyone off on twitter it's probably the perfect storm of bad news.


----------



## mullokintyre

moXJO said:


> Breaking down again.  Had $150 as a target but honestly didn't think it would get there at the time. Can still go lower from here. I'll try and swing trade a few more free carries.
> 
> I don't think there's much rush at the moment. Between Fed jacking rates and Elon p1ssing everyone off on twitter it's probably the perfect storm of bad news.



Accord ng to this Tesla Form 4 ,  Elon Musk files a Form 4 sale notice this week that he sold nearly  3. billion dollars worth of shares between November 12th and 14th,
Will be interesting to see if there are follow up form 4 notices.
Is Elon feeling the pinch??
Mick


----------



## moXJO

mullokintyre said:


> Accord ng to this Tesla Form 4 ,  Elon Musk files a Form 4 sale notice this week that he sold nearly  3. billion dollars worth of shares between November 12th and 14th,
> Will be interesting to see if there are follow up form 4 notices.
> Is Elon feeling the pinch??
> Mick



He needs to get his fat ar5e off twitter. It's a huge distraction.


----------



## Knobby22

mullokintyre said:


> Accord ng to this Tesla Form 4 ,  Elon Musk files a Form 4 sale notice this week that he sold nearly  3. billion dollars worth of shares between November 12th and 14th,
> Will be interesting to see if there are follow up form 4 notices.
> Is Elon feeling the pinch??
> Mick



Probably needs the money to keep twitter going. This vanity buy is destroying him. 
It's also trashing the Tesla brand. 

His perception as cool helped the brand, his new persona has the opposite effect.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Knobby22 said:


> Probably needs the money to keep twitter going. This vanity buy is destroying him.
> It's also trashing the Tesla brand.
> 
> His perception as cool helped the brand, his new persona has the opposite effect.



A US analyst:
_"The Twitter nightmare continues as Musk uses Tesla as his own ATM machine to keep funding the red ink at Twitter which gets worse by the day as more advertisers flee the platform with controversy increasing driven by Musk.

“When does it end? This remains the worry on the Tesla story as Musk has managed to change the narrative of Tesla from the fundamental [electric vehicle] transformation story to a ‘source of funds’ funding the Twitter turnaround ...."_


----------



## Value Collector

Dona Ferentes said:


> A US analyst:
> _"The Twitter nightmare continues as Musk uses Tesla as his own ATM machine to keep funding the red ink at Twitter which gets worse by the day as more advertisers flee the platform with controversy increasing driven by Musk.
> 
> “When does it end? This remains the worry on the Tesla story as Musk has managed to change the narrative of Tesla from the fundamental [electric vehicle] transformation story to a ‘source of funds’ funding the Twitter turnaround ...."_



While I agree that this Twitter thing is a bit of a mess, and I am not following it closely.

I feel the Analyst saying he is using Tesla as an ATM is misleading, that gives the impression he is taking cash from Tesla’s Accounts, instead of selling some shares.

He is perfectly within his rights to sell some of his shares to fund his next idea, who out of us hasn’t done that?


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> While I agree that this Twitter thing is a bit of a mess, and I am not following it closely.
> 
> I feel the Analyst saying he is using Tesla as an ATM is misleading, that gives the impression he is taking cash from Tesla’s Accounts, instead of selling some shares.
> 
> He is perfectly within his rights to sell some of his shares to fund his next idea, who out of us hasn’t done that?



This is the problem. There are multiple misleading story's being written because it's assumed he has gone "right wing".
Many publications that have a strong political bias are going after him. It's an attempted take down in real time.

So the bigger problem is the optics being created


----------



## orr

yeah it's looking 'black'.... atm.

*megapack 
* Vehical charging network... worldwide
*insurance platform
*current cash generation 
*cash at hand
*growing VPP for domestic users. US.
*the smart heads still don't want to work anywhere else (they do but you know what I mean)

then ...
What are the economics of the Semi going to look like in 12 months to Buyers?
same goes for autonimous driving and the ramp of In-house battery production.
The implications of IRA.
And if the Robot takes over? its first job will be to have a talk with Musk; maybe then he'll listen... 

But it's always darkest just before .... it goes pitch black....


----------



## The Triangle

moXJO said:


> This is the problem. There are multiple misleading story's being written because it's assumed he has gone "right wing".
> Many publications that have a strong political bias are going after him. It's an attempted take down in real time.
> 
> So the bigger problem is the optics being created



The danger period for Tesla was years ago when the Media loved Musk and helped pump Tesla.  But today they generate billions of positive cashflow each quarter which is more than enough to cover their investing and financing costs.   They hold roughly $20 billion in cash with about $33 billion liabilities and although the growth might not be there to support the stratospheric valuations, I don't think the company is anywhere near financial trouble anymore.   But that won't stop the media from claiming the sky is falling.  Tesla cashflows from the last quarterly:







mullokintyre said:


> Accord ng to this Tesla Form 4 ,  Elon Musk files a Form 4 sale notice this week that he sold nearly  3. billion dollars worth of shares between November 12th and 14th,
> Will be interesting to see if there are follow up form 4 notices.
> Is Elon feeling the pinch??
> Mick



Doubt he's feeling the pinch.  He's probably just smart enough to realize long-term Tesla is not going to maintain a trading multiple that's literally 5 to 10 times higher than that of Ford, or Toyota.  Take $5 billion out today before it becomes $1 billion in 2 years.


----------



## Value Collector

People should also be happy that he is selling some stock, because every time he does it triggers a capital gains tax event.

He could just do what every other billionaire does and just borrow against the stock indefinitely avoiding the CGT event.


----------



## Knobby22

Value Collector said:


> People should also be happy that he is selling some stock, because every time he does it triggers a capital gains tax event.



Elon is a brilliant business leader. He will realise soon (if not already) that his polarising political views are hurting customer perceptions of $USTSLA EVs,” Gary Black, who runs the Tesla investor Future Fund, tweeted.

“Customers don’t want their cars to be controversial. They want to be proud as hell to drive them - not embarrassed,” Black said.









						Elon Musk is now losing his grip on Tesla and Twitter
					

There is no doubt he is one of the world’s great visionaries but Elon Musk is risking the electric carmaker jewel in the crown of his business empire, as he obsesses over his social media company.




					www.theage.com.au


----------



## moXJO

What's being pushed:

Teslas are the new maga hat

Tesla build quality.

Relentless onslaught on social media.

Possibly a cheap entry, or a huge dent to the brand. Amusing that it's got this far.


----------



## JohnDe

Savings over the past 31 days


----------



## sptrawler

JohnDe said:


> Savings over the past 31 days



This E.V driving certainly is cheap @JohnDe , I've done 2,300km I charge at home and align charging current with solar P.V generation so theoretically it isn't costing.
I have put in 1 paid for charge to make sure the chargefox app is working and that was $2.28 on the 7th Oct, so that is my running cost up until today. $2.28 I can't complain.


----------



## Knobby22

moXJO said:


> Possibly a cheap entry, or a huge dent to the brand. Amusing that it's got this far.



Not amusing for holders. The article was about big investor comments.
Summarising:

1. Telsa at the moment has no CEO as Elon isn't there. Investors want a CEO.
2. (Quote above re branding damage).
3. Opposition car companies getting their sht together.
 Competition hotting up.
Not only traditional companies but also BV from China.

4. China story worrisome, spy acusations, actually making trade restrictions limiting sales etc. These guys can't be trusted. Link to this in article.

Still a sell to me.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> This E.V driving certainly is cheap @JohnDe , I've done 2,300km I charge at home and align charging current with solar P.V generation so theoretically it isn't costing.
> I have put in 1 paid for charge to make sure the chargefox app is working and that was $2.28 on the 7th Oct, so that is my running cost up until today. $2.28 I can't complain.



I remember one time when I had only owned the ev for a month or two, I had left the house at about 7am to drive around running some errands. I was heading home at about 10am and because I knew it was a sunny day I knew the car was going to recover all those kms I drove from my solar that day.

A feeling energy freedom came over me, I realised I wasn’t tied to the oil men anymore, it was such a great feeling.

What ever Elon Does at Twitter doesn’t take that feeling away from me.


----------



## Value Collector

Knobby22 said:


> Not amusing for holders. The article was about big investor comments.
> Summarising:
> 
> 1. Telsa at the moment has no CEO as Elon isn't there. Investors want a CEO.
> 2. (Quote above re branding damage).
> 3. Opposition car companies getting their sht together.
> Competition hotting up.
> Not only traditional companies but also BV from China.
> 
> 4. China story worrisome, spy acusations, actually making trade restrictions limiting sales etc. These guys can't be trusted. Link to this in article.
> 
> Still a sell to me.


----------



## omac

It's a giant bubble deflating, plenty of people are going to be left holding bags, interesting to witness one of the great stock manias and the effect social media has on it all.


----------



## Value Collector

omac said:


> It's a giant bubble deflating, plenty of people are going to be left holding bags, interesting to witness one of the great stock manias and the effect social media has on it all.



What’s your estimated value of TSLA?


----------



## omac

At best it is the average of what other car companies are valued at over a cycle, which from memory is ~ 1x revenue, maybe a bit of a premium for old times sake.

However, reflexivity works in both directions, so I think the downside might get uglier than that.


----------



## moXJO

Knobby22 said:


> .
> 
> Still a sell to me.



It's the AI potential.
He has a huge amount of data.
I could care less if he's a dck. 
Jobs was a massive prck but still brilliant.


----------



## Value Collector

omac said:


> At best it is the average of what other car companies are valued at over a cycle, which from memory is ~ 1x revenue, maybe a bit of a premium for old times sake.
> 
> However, reflexivity works in both directions, so I think the downside might get uglier than that.



I don’t think revenue is a good way to value a company, profit is the more important indicator, but with a company growing as fast as Tesla is, it’s value is going to based on its future profit.

When you look at the speed they have been increasing production, and the multiple different business verticals they are involved in, they is a very large scope to where profit can go.

In the last 5 years they have expanded their original factory to maximum capacity, and built 3 more larger factories (Shanghai, Texas, Berlin) which all are in the process of ramping up.

It’s a bit like trying to saying back in 2010 Apple should have been valued at 1 x revenue because that was what Nokia was valued at. 

—————————

I am not saying Tesla is cheap or expensive, I don’t really know either way, but I am confident they will keep growing.

I sold half my Tesla shares just before they reached their peak, because they had more than doubled since I bought in and I thought it was worth taking some capital off the table, but I am happy holding the remaining holding.


----------



## Value Collector

I just took a look at their Revenue, and look at this revenue growth!!!

Even people valuing them based on their revenue should be able to see that the revenue growth is ridiculously high, and would have to be raising their valuation by large amounts on a quarterly basis.

We aren’t talking about a stodgy old auto company fighting to maintain its market share with wafer thin profit margins, we are talking about a company growing it’s market share at super fast rates, with fat profit margins involved in multiple different businesses.


----------



## sptrawler

The only grey cloud on Tesla's horizon IMO is the establishment, the old money.
Let's be honest NASA has been doing the space thing for a long time and Tesla trumped them with space x and re usable rockets.
The E.V's 2012 everyone was getting fed up with useless battery operated tools, let alone E.V's, what a joke everyone thought, what a muppet.
In 50 years time i'm sure Musk will be recognised in the same way as Alexander Bell, Edison etc, the guy is a visionary, did I buy any? No I was sceptical, but I'm first to admit I'm impressed.
Whether he survives the establishment attack, is yet to be seen, not many do.
But if anyone can, he can, he is a lot smarter than Trump and a lot smarter than the most of the people out to get him IMO.


----------



## moXJO

Im waiting on $120, but see if it's going to hold at this level.  There should be supportClosed out some  puts and bought some more stock (stuff all as only small option position).  I'm over trying to trade to free carry. And it's still a loss despite how I pay for the stock. I'm addicted to doing it at the moment on tsla. But there's better profits elsewhere. Growth plays are not going anywhere just yet.

Elon is now going against the democrats pretty hard which is insane if you are a tech company and the dems are in government. I'm expecting some more down if he keeps it up.

 He has always had nothing but trouble from tweeting. Even if it keeps him in the news cycle. He needs to moderate his bias and go back to the occasional troll.


----------



## JohnDe

> Even though it took a few days for the update to arrive to our car, the timing worked well as we were just about to hit the road for a 4 hour journey in the Model Y—it was the perfect opportunity to put all the new features to the test!


----------



## noirua

Tesla falls over 6% to $115.00 in the states. Simon Cawkwell aka Evil Knievel forecast $50 and was laughed at at the time - it may come to pass.

Live Price Charts: 
Day: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^TSLA&t=1&p=0&dm=0&vol=0&width=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240

Long Term: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=stat...idth=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240


----------



## noirua

Shares of Tesla Inc. fell about 9% in morning trading to its lowest point in more than two years after the company suspended car production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday.

The stock traded as low as $112.23 a share on Tuesday. Shares are down about 68% this year and more than 41% lower this month, on pace for the stock's worst month on record.

The stock is on pace for its lowest close since September 2020.

The decline comes after The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla extended a planned eight-day production halt at its Shanghai plant, its largest worldwide factory by car output.








						Tesla Shares Fall to Fresh Two-Year Low Over China Production Pause
					

By Will Feuer Shares of Tesla Inc. fell about 9% in morning trading to its lowest point in more than two years after the company...



					uk.advfn.com


----------



## moXJO

I missed trading yesterday. I'd have bought a few at that price as it looked like a bottom for now. But who knows. I think final quarter results soon?

Also government subsidies on evs are also next week?


----------



## Trader X

Interesting analysis of Tesla's 70% share price collapse and review of FSD (misnomer and sacred cow).  Is Tesla a car company or technology company?   When "Tesla's auto segment accounted for 85% of its total revenue and an outsized 96% of its total gross profit in its most recently reported quarter" the conclusion must be it's a car company and car companies are generally not good businesses to invest in.  Tesla shorts are cashing in on the high conviction that Tesla was in fact a tech company instead of a grossly mispriced EV car company.


----------



## Value Collector

Trader X said:


> Interesting analysis of Tesla's 70% share price collapse and review of FSD (misnomer and sacred cow).  Is Tesla a car company or technology company?   When "Tesla's auto segment accounted for 85% of its total revenue and an outsized 96% of its total gross profit in its most recently reported quarter" the conclusion must be it's a car company and car companies are generally not good businesses to invest in.  Tesla shorts are cashing in on the high conviction that Tesla was in fact a tech company instead of a grossly overpriced EV car company.




Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
Just a “car company”.

Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.

This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.

BUT,

This is not all Tesla do,

Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.

Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.

Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.

Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.

Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.

Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.

There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.

Then there is the no vehicle businesses.

Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.

Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.

And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.

They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their  exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.


----------



## mullokintyre

Value Collector said:


> Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
> Just a “car company”.
> 
> Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.
> 
> This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.
> 
> BUT,
> 
> This is not all Tesla do,
> 
> Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.
> 
> Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.
> 
> Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.
> 
> Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.
> 
> Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.
> 
> Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.
> 
> There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.
> 
> Then there is the no vehicle businesses.
> 
> Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.
> 
> Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.
> 
> And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.
> 
> They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their  exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.



Somebody much wiser than me once said "never fall in Love with a Stock".
I am afraid  you are head over heels VC.
Mick


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> Somebody much wiser than me once said "never fall in Love with a Stock".
> I am afraid  you are head over heels VC.
> Mick



Not at all, (I am in love with the products, but not my investment)

I bought about $60K USD of Tesla back in 2020, Sold half of it after it had tripled in price close to the peak because I thought it was getting getting over valued and I was never confident with its true valuation because it’s a bit beyond my circle of competence.

So I wouldn’t say I am in love with the stock, I was totally happy to sell it based on valuation, but also happy to keep the other half free carry for its future potential.

—————————

The day I bought the $60K I was tossing up between Tesla and Berkshire, by buying Tesla I was able to sell 50% of the Tesla and end up with more Berkshire than I would have gotten had I just invested the whole amount in Berkshire up front, plus I have my remaining Tesla as a bonus, which I am happy to hold and watch the company keep growing.

————————-

But saying all that, which parts of my breakdown of teslas business do you think I got wrong?


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> Somebody much wiser than me once said "never fall in Love with a Stock".
> I am afraid  you are head over heels VC.
> Mick



In addition to my other response to this statement I made above, I also wanted to point out that although “Never fall in love with a stock” is something that many traders repeat, none of these traders have an investment record as brilliant as Warren Buffet.

Now, if you have ever heard Warren Buffett talk about some of his companies such as See’s Candy, Coca Cola or Geico insurance it’s hard to say that he is not head over heels for these companies.

Warren has actually publicly stated that he will never sell a single share of the Coca Cola company, and both sees candy and Geico which he owns 100% of are permanent parts of Berkshire and will never be sold.

So yeah, if the worlds greatest investor can fall in love with companies sometimes I don’t think it’s the worst thing, some companies are trully wonderful businesses that it doesn’t make sense to sell.

Am I saying Tesla should be in this category… No, as I said I did sell some of mine, But I do love driving around in the product, and so far haven’t found a better product. I am might by the Apple car if that ever becomes a thing, but would still be worried about not having access to the Tesla charging network, as I showed in the electric car thread it’s a network that is scaling up quite well, and is a big selling point.


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
> Just a “car company”.
> 
> Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.
> 
> This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.
> 
> BUT,
> 
> This is not all Tesla do,
> 
> Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.
> 
> Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.
> 
> Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.
> 
> Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.
> 
> Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.
> 
> Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.
> 
> There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.
> 
> Then there is the no vehicle businesses.
> 
> Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.
> 
> Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.
> 
> And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.
> 
> They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their  exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.



I think some of that reasoning is flawed VC, it isn't that I don't think the product isn't good, but I think it is in a honeymoon period where it is working.
 IMO there is a lot of flaws in the business structure that could become exposed, as supporting the business model stretches their resources.
Time will tell.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> I think some of that reasoning is flawed VC, it isn't that I don't think the product isn't good, but I think it is in a honeymoon period where it is working.
> IMO there is a lot of flaws in the business structure that could become exposed, as supporting the business model stretches their resources.
> Time will tell.



Which parts of my reasoning and  the business model are flawed in your opinion?


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
> Just a “car company”.
> 
> Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.
> 
> This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.
> 
> BUT,
> 
> This is not all Tesla do,
> 
> Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.



The Ford operational model is a proven model and a model which most manufacturers use, if it was more cost effective for car manufacturers to operate their own point of sale business model they would do it, wouldn't they?




Value Collector said:


> Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.



As you have already stated there is very little servicing to be done, I always remember what the owner of the BMW motor cycle franchise in Perth once told me, "if you ran a business selling parts for BMW motorcycles, you would go broke".
Electric vehicles will need minimal parts, but the overheads for carrying the people with the expertise, the servicing facilities and the associated costs affect the bottom line.
I very much doubt servicing of E.V's will be a money spinner.




Value Collector said:


> Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.



The charging network may well make money, but as more third party providers enter the market, the Tesla market share will be eroded, well I would think that would be the case. Yet the maintenance of the infrastructure will increase with age and wear.



Value Collector said:


> Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.
> 
> Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.
> 
> Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.
> 
> There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.
> 
> Then there is the no vehicle businesses.
> 
> Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.
> 
> Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.
> 
> And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.
> 
> They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their  exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.



At the moment with the E.V space being in it's infancy, Tesla has the jump on everyone on all aspects E.V, I think a lot of the peripheral services that Tesla currently supplies, which are non core, will be offloaded as the industry matures and margins associated with the non core business become tighter.
Take your example of vehicle insurance, that is a very competitive industry, how will Tesla keep its margins e.g from my understanding there are only two panel shops allowed to repair Tesla's in Perth and from what I heard they have to pay a lot to have that privilege.
I'm not convinced that every panel shop will want to pay to repair their cars, ATM it may work, but ATM there is a lot of money in image and not that many Tesla's in W.A, eventually that novelty wears off and the work load increases.
As I said time will tell and ride the wave while it builds, there is always money to be made, but nothing stays the same.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> The Ford operational model is a proven model and a model which most manufacturers use, if it was more cost effective for car manufacturers to operate their own point of sale business model they would do it, wouldn't they?
> 
> 
> 
> As you have already stated there is very little servicing to be done, I always remember what the owner of the BMW motor cycle franchise in Perth once told me, "if you ran a business selling parts for BMW motorcycles, you would go broke".
> Electric vehicles will need minimal parts, but the overheads for carrying the people with the expertise, the servicing facilities and the associated costs affect the bottom line.
> I very much doubt servicing of E.V's will be a money spinner.
> 
> 
> 
> The charging network may well make money, but as more third party providers enter the market, the Tesla market share will be eroded, well I would think that would be the case. Yet the maintenance of the infrastructure will increase with age and wear.
> 
> 
> At the moment with the E.V space being in it's infancy, Tesla has the jump on everyone on all aspects E.V, I think a lot of the peripheral services that Tesla currently supplies, which are non core, will be offloaded as the industry matures and margins associated with the non core business become tighter.
> Take your example of vehicle insurance, that is a very competitive industry, how will Tesla keep its margins e.g from my understanding there are only two panel shops allowed to repair Tesla's in Perth and from what I heard they have to pay a lot to have that privilege.
> I'm not convinced that every panel shop will want to pay to repair their cars, ATM it may work, but ATM there is a lot of money in image and not that many Tesla's in W.A, eventually that novelty wears off and the work load increases.
> As I said time will tell and ride the wave while it builds, there is always money to be made, but nothing stays the same.



Remember my point is simply that Tesla is not your average car company.

But,

Fords business model was put in place before the internet, now that people can research and order and trade in cars on line they don’t really need to visit a dealer to do all that.

There is nothing wrong with fords model, it just outsources part of the profit margin, hence their lower profit margin and lower return on capital, imo saying that Tesla and ford should be valued the same way is silly, because they are completely different.

———————
Yes EV’s require less servicing, which makes having a lower amount of service centres / dealership and keeping them company owned viable.

But as I said the ford service centres are outsourced, so very little of servicing centre profits make its way back to ford, but if some one goes back to Tesla for their road worthy and gets new tyres and some brake fluid, that’s Tesla profit, not a third party dealer.

————————

You must admit that the Tesla charging network is the best in the world, and if it continues to scale like those in the USA, and they open it up to others it will be a big driver of cashflow, where as ford has 0% market share in petrol stations.

————————

Tesla plans to make money in insurance by utilising the data it gathers on each drivers performance, it has live data on which cars are driven safely and which aren’t.

Other insurance companies rely on you answering questions and data based on averages based on age sex etc


----------



## Value Collector

Check out this short video that explains all the way Tesla is vertically integrated vs the outsourced model of the other companies.


----------



## JohnDe

> Supercharger Voting​Vote on Tesla’s next Supercharger site. Every 3-month voting cycle, you can cast multiple votes to help us decide on new Supercharger locations. Check the leaderboard to see which proposed locations are most popular.













						Supercharger Voting | Tesla Australia
					

Learn more about voting for new Supercharger locations.




					www.tesla.com


----------



## JohnDe

Value Collector said:


> Check out this short video that explains all the way Tesla is vertically integrated vs the outsourced model of the other companies.





A must watch -


----------



## Knobby22

JohnDe said:


> A must watch -




Wow! Great watch. They say that it is the 2nd best product they have seen yet the poor engineering is obvious. It appears Tesla are still well ahead.


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> Remember my point is simply that Tesla is not your average car company.
> 
> But,
> 
> Fords business model was put in place before the internet, now that people can research and order and trade in cars on line they don’t really need to visit a dealer to do all that.
> 
> There is nothing wrong with fords model, it just outsources part of the profit margin, hence their lower profit margin and lower return on capital, imo saying that Tesla and ford should be valued the same way is silly, because they are completely different.
> 
> ———————
> Yes EV’s require less servicing, which makes having a lower amount of service centres / dealership and keeping them company owned viable.
> 
> But as I said the ford service centres are outsourced, so very little of servicing centre profits make its way back to ford, but if some one goes back to Tesla for their road worthy and gets new tyres and some brake fluid, that’s Tesla profit, not a third party dealer.
> 
> ————————
> 
> You must admit that the Tesla charging network is the best in the world, and if it continues to scale like those in the USA, and they open it up to others it will be a big driver of cashflow, where as ford has 0% market share in petrol stations.
> 
> ————————
> 
> Tesla plans to make money in insurance by utilising the data it gathers on each drivers performance, it has live data on which cars are driven safely and which aren’t.
> 
> Other insurance companies rely on you answering questions and data based on averages based on age sex etc



Time will tell what works for them and what doesnt and as per every other business they will adapt and adjust.
I just doubt everything will work as well as you predict, kudos to them and you if they all do.


----------



## JohnDe

Knobby22 said:


> Wow! Great watch. They say that it is the 2nd best product they have seen yet the poor engineering is obvious. It appears Tesla are still well ahead.




That's the difference of in-house development & engineering, compared to outsourcing for the best price.

Ford and all the other traditional manufacturers started outsourcing the development & manufacturing of components for their vehicles in the 1980's. At first it saved the manufacturers a lot of money, as they took work away from their heavily unionised work force. But later, as they became reliant on many and varied private component manufacturers, parts became complex and unreliable.

EVs using complex systems like that Mach E are going to cost a fortune when the warranty runs out, many will lose value very fast. Just like the Euro brands do today.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> Time will tell what works for them and what doesnt and as per every other business they will adapt and adjust.
> I just doubt everything will work as well as you predict, kudos to them and you if they all do.



I am not saying that every business unit they have will work out perfectly, I am just saying that they shouldn’t be ignored when doing the valuation like the guy in the video suggested.

———————
Consider this thought experiment for a moment.

The guy wants to only value Tesla as an auto maker, based on traditional low profit margins of automakers.

Now, Tesla could turn them selves into that style of business if they wanted, but let’s consider how much cash would be generated for investors if they sold off all the other businesses.

Eg.

1. How much would Teslas global supercharger network sell for if we sold it to a third party, along with the rights to continue expanding it an using the Tesla brand?

2. How much would Teslas dealerships sell for if we sold them all off along with territorial rights to be the sole reseller of vehicles in that area?

3. How much would teslas insurance business sell for to a third party, if we also included the rights to the user data?

4. How much would teslas battery factory sell for (because the automakers generally don’t own their own battery factory), if we also included the home and industrial battery business?

5. How much would teslas software company sell for, if you included the rights to all the self driving software, and paid them a fee for their supply of software in the future? Because the other automakers are outsourcing this stuff already.

These 5 things alone are worth billions and billions and may continue to grow, and that is ignoring the blue sky stuff like the possibility of the robo taxi network and Tesla robot.

Most of the car companies don’t even make their own car seats, Tesla makes their own you could say that division could be sold off to.


----------



## Value Collector

Knobby22 said:


> Wow! Great watch. They say that it is the 2nd best product they have seen yet the poor engineering is obvious. It appears Tesla are still well ahead.



I think Elon and his engineers are always looking for improvements, not just trying to get a product into dealerships asap.

Look at the way Elon realises an improvement he could make during this 30 second interview.


----------



## Value Collector

Teslas is the only car company that makes its own seats, check out their seat factory.


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> I think Elon and his engineers are always looking for improvements, not just trying to get a product into dealerships asap.
> 
> Look at the way Elon realises an improvement he could make during this 30 second interview.




I'm a big fan of his and he has the runs on the board, all I'm saying is that no business ends up being all blue sky. Not everything works as hoped, if anyone can have a100% success rate Musk can and I hope he does.
Time will tell.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> I'm a big fan of his and he has the runs on the board, all I'm saying is that no business ends up being all blue sky. Not everything works as hoped, if anyone can have a100% success rate Musk can and I hope he does.
> Time will tell.



I agree, but as I said those parts of the business could be sold off today for billions of dollars, leaving Tesla as a straight vehicle assembly and wholesale business. They aren’t blue sky they are very real valuable bankable assets.


----------



## JohnDe

Value Collector said:


> I am not saying that every business unit they have will work out perfectly, I am just saying that they shouldn’t be ignored when doing the valuation like the guy in the video suggested.
> 
> ———————
> Consider this thought experiment for a moment.
> 
> The guy wants to only value Tesla as an auto maker, based on traditional low profit margins of automakers.
> 
> Now, Tesla could turn them selves into that style of business if they wanted, but let’s consider how much cash would be generated for investors if they sold off all the other businesses.
> 
> Eg.
> 
> 1. How much would Teslas global supercharger network sell for if we sold it to a third party, along with the rights to continue expanding it an using the Tesla brand?
> 
> 2. How much would Teslas dealerships sell for if we sold them all off along with territorial rights to be the sole reseller of vehicles in that area?
> 
> 3. How much would teslas insurance business sell for to a third party, if we also included the rights to the user data?
> 
> 4. How much would teslas battery factory sell for (because the automakers generally don’t own their own battery factory), if we also included the home and industrial battery business?
> 
> 5. How much would teslas software company sell for, if you included the rights to all the self driving software, and paid them a fee for their supply of software in the future? Because the other automakers are outsourcing this stuff already.
> 
> These 5 things alone are worth billions and billions and may continue to grow, and that is ignoring the blue sky stuff like the possibility of the robo taxi network and Tesla robot.
> 
> Most of the car companies don’t even make their own car seats, Tesla makes their own you could say that division could be sold off to.



I don’t know. How much would they sell for?


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> I don’t know. How much would they sell for?



A lot more than the $0 some people want to ascribe to them.

Warren Buffet bought 78 car dealerships selling 240,000 cars back in 2015 for $4.1 Billion, so how much Tesla could sell their global dealership network that is currently selling at a rate of 2,000,000 cars a year for is anyone’s guess. But it would be in the billions.

Then you have to add all the other things I mentioned you could spin off if you really just wanted Tesla to be a pure unintegrated Automaker like the rest.


----------



## sptrawler

This is the main threat to Tesla IMO, the pitchfork crew have been upset, so more and more negative press will be focused on Elon.
This article is supposed to be about cars, but in reality IMO it is just a rant against Musk, it wasn't long ago the media was his greatest support group.
I wonder if the media sentiment, will influence their road testing analysis? 









						Consumers are realising Tesla isn’t the only electric car
					

Not long ago, Tesla’s electric vehicles were simply the best on the market. If you wanted a stylish EV, Elon Musk would be your most likely supplier — even if you hated his guts. But not anymore.




					www.theage.com.au
				



From the article:
The new competition makes Musk’s recent role as the town crier for the red-pilled online right especially puzzling and, for his car company, perilous. Musk’s chaotic and polarising tenure as Twitter’s chief executive — during which he’s embraced far-right tropes about gender and journalism and public health, and generally behaved like a rich bully on a power trip — already seems to be battering Tesla’s brand.

_The Wall Street Journal_ reported last month on a survey by Morning Consult showing that perceptions of Tesla have been falling steadily since May, shortly after Musk began his bid for Twitter; between October and November, the period when Musk took ownership of Twitter, sentiment among Democrats toward Tesla plummeted, while favourability among Republicans rose slightly.

It’s hard to disagree. A few weeks ago, I test drove Chevy’s new Bolt EUV, the squat electric crossover that is the slightly larger cousin of the Bolt EV, the entry-level electric car that General Motors began selling in 2016. I was bowled over by the new Bolt electric utility vehicle. I found it surprisingly roomy and much nicer on the inside than its staid exterior would suggest.
I also liked that its interior felt a lot more like a normal car than Musk’s all-touchscreen automotive design style. In the Bolt you can control the air conditioning and other systems with hefty buttons and knobs that are easy to find and manipulate while you’re driving; in a Tesla almost everything is controlled by touching a big screen mounted in the centre console.

The best thing about Chevy’s Bolt EUV: The model I tried, which was kitted out with nearly every available option, including GM’s fantastic driver-assistance program, Super Cruise, carried a sales price of just under $US38,000. Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, sells for upward of $US45,000 ($65,600). As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?


----------



## Knobby22

sptrawler said:


> As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?



It is a risk.

If he made tweets supporting Biden he would lose a different set of customers. Just dumb to get into politics and in a big way too through Twitter. He is aware though and is no longer making political comments from what I have seen.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> This is the main threat to Tesla IMO, the pitchfork crew have been upset, so more and more negative press will be focused on Elon.
> This article is supposed to be about cars, but in reality IMO it is just a rant against Musk, it wasn't long ago the media was his greatest support group.
> I wonder if the media sentiment, will influence their road testing analysis?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Consumers are realising Tesla isn’t the only electric car
> 
> 
> Not long ago, Tesla’s electric vehicles were simply the best on the market. If you wanted a stylish EV, Elon Musk would be your most likely supplier — even if you hated his guts. But not anymore.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theage.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> The new competition makes Musk’s recent role as the town crier for the red-pilled online right especially puzzling and, for his car company, perilous. Musk’s chaotic and polarising tenure as Twitter’s chief executive — during which he’s embraced far-right tropes about gender and journalism and public health, and generally behaved like a rich bully on a power trip — already seems to be battering Tesla’s brand.
> 
> _The Wall Street Journal_ reported last month on a survey by Morning Consult showing that perceptions of Tesla have been falling steadily since May, shortly after Musk began his bid for Twitter; between October and November, the period when Musk took ownership of Twitter, sentiment among Democrats toward Tesla plummeted, while favourability among Republicans rose slightly.
> 
> It’s hard to disagree. A few weeks ago, I test drove Chevy’s new Bolt EUV, the squat electric crossover that is the slightly larger cousin of the Bolt EV, the entry-level electric car that General Motors began selling in 2016. I was bowled over by the new Bolt electric utility vehicle. I found it surprisingly roomy and much nicer on the inside than its staid exterior would suggest.
> I also liked that its interior felt a lot more like a normal car than Musk’s all-touchscreen automotive design style. In the Bolt you can control the air conditioning and other systems with hefty buttons and knobs that are easy to find and manipulate while you’re driving; in a Tesla almost everything is controlled by touching a big screen mounted in the centre console.
> 
> The best thing about Chevy’s Bolt EUV: The model I tried, which was kitted out with nearly every available option, including GM’s fantastic driver-assistance program, Super Cruise, carried a sales price of just under $US38,000. Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, sells for upward of $US45,000 ($65,600). As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?



Society can’t allow you to be a hero for ever, eventually they will find reasons to demonise you even if you don’t give them the ammunition.


----------



## JohnDe

sptrawler said:


> This is the main threat to Tesla IMO, the pitchfork crew have been upset, so more and more negative press will be focused on Elon.
> This article is supposed to be about cars, but in reality IMO it is just a rant against Musk, it wasn't long ago the media was his greatest support group.
> I wonder if the media sentiment, will influence their road testing analysis?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Consumers are realising Tesla isn’t the only electric car
> 
> 
> Not long ago, Tesla’s electric vehicles were simply the best on the market. If you wanted a stylish EV, Elon Musk would be your most likely supplier — even if you hated his guts. But not anymore.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theage.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> The new competition makes Musk’s recent role as the town crier for the red-pilled online right especially puzzling and, for his car company, perilous. Musk’s chaotic and polarising tenure as Twitter’s chief executive — during which he’s embraced far-right tropes about gender and journalism and public health, and generally behaved like a rich bully on a power trip — already seems to be battering Tesla’s brand.
> 
> _The Wall Street Journal_ reported last month on a survey by Morning Consult showing that perceptions of Tesla have been falling steadily since May, shortly after Musk began his bid for Twitter; between October and November, the period when Musk took ownership of Twitter, sentiment among Democrats toward Tesla plummeted, while favourability among Republicans rose slightly.
> 
> It’s hard to disagree. A few weeks ago, I test drove Chevy’s new Bolt EUV, the squat electric crossover that is the slightly larger cousin of the Bolt EV, the entry-level electric car that General Motors began selling in 2016. I was bowled over by the new Bolt electric utility vehicle. I found it surprisingly roomy and much nicer on the inside than its staid exterior would suggest.
> I also liked that its interior felt a lot more like a normal car than Musk’s all-touchscreen automotive design style. In the Bolt you can control the air conditioning and other systems with hefty buttons and knobs that are easy to find and manipulate while you’re driving; in a Tesla almost everything is controlled by touching a big screen mounted in the centre console.
> 
> The best thing about Chevy’s Bolt EUV: The model I tried, which was kitted out with nearly every available option, including GM’s fantastic driver-assistance program, Super Cruise, carried a sales price of just under $US38,000. Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, sells for upward of $US45,000 ($65,600). As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?




^^Interesting read, but not convincing.

Every *Chevrolet Bolt EV and Bolt EUV* that GM has made is under recall because their batteries could be defective and cause a fire.

I picked up the wheels magazine Special Yearbook Edition to read while on holidays. It is the EV issue, very interesting.


----------



## pozindustrial

There has never been a Musk before, perhaps George Westinghouse came close, but Musk's ability to operate everything as a startup and succeed is beyond belief. I love that he is a hardcore engineer, brilliant and driven to find the best way to manufacture and bring to market. IMO he has caught every other ICE manufacturer by surprise and while they were starting to consider him he zoomed past and has not stopped. I saw a graph of profit that put Tesla equal to Toyota, but Toyota produce many times the number of vehicles to reach that profit. In USA Ford is the number 2 EV leader with 150,000 cars while Tesla has 3 million. In Sept his deliveries in Australia exceeded the long-term leader Camry. He continues to innovate with brilliant ideas such as the gigacastings that eliminate over 70 parts and their processes with one quick casting that is lighter and stronger. The model Y in Texas has one for the front and another for the rear end. Nobody had ever produced a 6000 ton casting press before and now he has a 9000 ton machine.
I am saving for a model 3 because at my age I want low maintenance costs, low running costs, 20 year life and simple (one pedal) driving. I want to be able to fill up quickly, reliably and cheaply on a long trip and I love the idea of a full tank at home every morning. Due to their superior charging stations and home charging I can get that, but not with other EVs. I have been buying the stock as it falls because nobody can predict the bottom and I rejoice when I hear another strong, negative opinion about Musk or Tesla because it hides the reality that they are expanding at breakneck speed, they are massively profitable, they are leading the field and they have a very deep moat in their innovation expertise and supercharging network.
I think people fail to realise that Tesla is 50% a vehicle manufacturer and 50% a software company, both of which are outstanding with Teslas. Tesla was designed from the ground up as an EV, with light weight bodies (the best safety ratings of any vehicle), high slip air resistance which cannot be said for most other ICE manufacturers who are producing EVs and this results in longer range at a reasonable weight. Move over Toyota and their lean manufacturing systems, Tesla has rewritten the rules. But the company does not stop there with its big battery business, home battery business, semis and cybertruck (ute) with around 1.5 million preorders. Musk has said the Tesla robot will be a bigger business than the cars so I pray the price will keep falling for a few months. And what about autonomous driving? He has not hit the milestones he thought he would by now, but nobody else is as advanced and he is continuing to plough expertise into making it a reality. As I age I would like to earn money from my vehicle as a taxi and then to have it drive me around when I need to. Imagine the semi trailer industry using electric trucks to cross the country with greater safety than a human. No more drugs, drivers nodding off, time schedules etc. Frito Lay/Pepsicola in USA have already begun using theirs. No loud noise, no pollution, no gears and the most powerful trucks in the world that rarely use the brakes thanks to regenerative braking. I believe this is the next Apple and then some.


----------



## sptrawler

@JohnDe the problem isn't about whether Musk is right or wrong, it is about whether he fits in with the scheme of things, history is littered with geniuses who get on the wrong side of the established narrative.
It usually doesn't end well, maybe this time it will be different.
As I keep saying time will tell, but you only have to see the posts on this relatively mundane political forum, to see the absolute belief people have as long as it is presented correctly and has a stamp of approval from a higher executive.  
Musk has blown his feet off, by undoing the hole that was dug for Trump, now the hole is being re dug bigger and deeper, so that it can fit both Trump and Musk in it.
Let's see if he can stop them pushing him in, I hope he can, but IMO it will be a first.
Having said that he has pulled off many firsts and if he does, it will cause a huge ripple effect.
IMO in a lot of ways, what Musk is trying to do is similar to what happened in England with the Magna Carta, the people stood up to the ruling monarchists and said this is BS, we the people should have a say, mask is standing up to the long established media Murdoch etc and saying information isn't just about how you want to present it, every side should have an equal say.
Let's see how it goes.
The reporter wasn't saying the Bolt was better than than the Tesla, he was saying Musk is a right wing Trump supporting loony, look at something other than a Tesla. 🤣 
Interesting times IMO.


----------



## sptrawler

By the way @JohnDe De it was great to see in your post my Hyundai Kona came 3rd, I thought I was a bit crazy buying an old school car because it was just like a normal ICE car, but I still like it.
The economy is excellent, the power is great and the all important range is magic.
Also I have adapted a spare wheel, which in W.A is a must, there are huge areas of W.A where getting a shredded tyre and not having a spare is just not an option and one of the reasons I decided on the Kona.
One there is a lot of areas that don't have mobile phone coverage, two they also are low traffic areas even in the South West eg Walpole to Albany and three leave the car there while you go to get a new tyre fitted means you come back to a stripped car.🤣
Ah Western Australia, you have to love it.
Horses for courses.


----------



## JohnDe

sptrawler said:


> @JohnDe the problem isn't about whether Musk is right or wrong, it is about whether he fits in with the scheme of things, history is littered with geniuses who get on the wrong side of the established narrative.
> It usually doesn't end well, maybe this time it will be different.
> As I keep saying time will tell, but you only have to see the posts on this relatively mundane political forum, to see the absolute belief people have as long as it is presented correctly and has a stamp of approval from a higher executive.
> Musk has blown his feet off, by undoing the hole that was dug for Trump, now the hole is being re dug bigger and deeper, so that it can fit both Trump and Musk in it.
> Let's see if he can stop them pushing him in, I hope he can, but IMO it will be a first.
> Having said that he has pulled off many firsts and if he does, it will cause a huge ripple effect.
> IMO in a lot of ways, what Musk is trying to do is similar to what happened in England with the Magna Carta, the people stood up to the ruling monarchists and said this is BS, we the people should have a say, mask is standing up to the long established media Murdoch etc and saying information isn't just about how you want to present it, every side should have an equal say.
> Let's see how it goes.
> The reporter wasn't saying the Bolt was better than than the Tesla, he was saying Musk is a right wing Trump supporting loony, look at something other than a Tesla. 🤣
> Interesting times IMO.




Have you addressed your comment to the correct person? 

My previous posts only show the great gaps in quality & technical advantages that Tesla has over the ‘late to the party’ competitors, which automotive commentators are saying.

Whether Elon Musk is right or wrong, I do not know and does not concern me. Tesla has more than one person in management.


----------



## sptrawler

JohnDe said:


> Have you addressed your comment to the correct person?
> 
> My previous posts only show the great gaps in quality & technical advantages that Tesla has over the ‘late to the party’ competitors, which automotive commentators are saying.
> 
> Whether Elon Musk is right or wrong, I do not know and does not concern me. Tesla has more than one person in management.



It wasn't directed at you in a personal way, it was just indicating that Tesla and in particular Musk, is struggling with a media that has been unleashed on the product.
The product doesn't deserve that, it is an extremely good product, but IMO it highlights how little respect the media has for fair reporting.


----------



## mullokintyre

sptrawler said:


> By the way @JohnDe De it was great to see in your post my Hyundai Kona came 3rd, I thought I was a bit crazy buying an old school car because it was just like a normal ICE car, but I still like it.
> The economy is excellent, the power is great and the all important range is magic.
> Also I have adapted a spare wheel, which in W.A is a must, there are huge areas of W.A where getting a shredded tyre and not having a spare is just not an option and one of the reasons I decided on the Kona.
> One there is a lot of areas that don't have mobile phone coverage, two they also are low traffic areas even in the South West eg Walpole to Albany and three leave the car there while you go to get a new tyre fitted means you come back to a stripped car.🤣
> Ah Western Australia, you have to love it.
> Horses for courses.
> 
> 
> View attachment 151128



I have found that the 80kmh spare from a  toyota corrolla fits the hub on the BYD and is small enough to fit in the rear.
Never happy  running anywhere without a spare in regional Vic.
Mick


----------



## rcw1

Good morning








						Tesla Model Y is now the best-selling car in all of Europe
					

Tesla Model Y became the best-selling car in all of Europe in November - for the second time, and not just for EVs, but all cars.




					electrek.co
				




According to Fred Lambert, writing for Electrek on 29 December 2022, Tesla Model Y is now the best-selling car in all of Europe.
​Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## mullokintyre

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla Model Y is now the best-selling car in all of Europe
> 
> 
> Tesla Model Y became the best-selling car in all of Europe in November - for the second time, and not just for EVs, but all cars.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> electrek.co
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> According to Fred Lambert, writing for Electrek on 29 December 2022, Tesla Model Y is now the best-selling car in all of Europe.
> ​Kind regards
> rcw1



Although, as the article mentions, the monthly figures can be extremely erratic, that is quite an extraordinary result, even allowing for the  EU and its member countries virtually outlawing the sales of ICE engined cars.
The only problem I see on the horizon is that as the article states, the erratic nature of deliveries is largely driven by imports from China rather than  cars being made in the EU.
If the bureacrats in Brussels decide to copy the Americans and  give all the various incentives to the cars that are 80 or 90% made in the EU, that may pull future sales/deliveries back..
Mick


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> Although, as the article mentions, the monthly figures can be extremely erratic, that is quite an extraordinary result, even allowing for the  EU and its member countries virtually outlawing the sales of ICE engined cars.
> The only problem I see on the horizon is that as the article states, the erratic nature of deliveries is largely driven by imports from China rather than  cars being made in the EU.
> If the bureacrats in Brussels decide to copy the Americans and  give all the various incentives to the cars that are 80 or 90% made in the EU, that may pull future sales/deliveries back..
> Mick



Tesla has a factory in Germany that is currently ramping up and will continue to grow, they won’t be importing from China for much longer.


----------



## mullokintyre

Value Collector said:


> Tesla has a factory in Germany that is currently ramping up and will continue to grow, they won’t be importing from China for much longer.



According to Electrek , the factory started producing in March this year, and in June achieved 1000 Model Y's in a week.
The article says they are hoping to produce 50,000 Y's in a year, thats still only about  20% of the total demand, assuming that it continues on that sales trajectory. They hope to ramp it up to double that number, but that would still be only half the sales requirement.

Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> I have found that the 80kmh spare from a  toyota corrolla fits the hub on the BYD and is small enough to fit in the rear.
> Never happy  running anywhere without a spare in regional Vic.
> Mick




Make sure that the rolling diameter is the same as the existing wheels. If it’s not and you attempt to drive with one odd size wheel, there will be a riot with the electronics & safety system.


----------



## sptrawler

mullokintyre said:


> I have found that the 80kmh spare from a  toyota corrolla fits the hub on the BYD and is small enough to fit in the rear.
> Never happy  running anywhere without a spare in regional Vic.
> Mick



Spot on @mullokintyre , I'm with you on that thinking, I think it is risky not having a spare in low population and poor phone coverage areas.
Mine is a space saver spare from an FG Falcon.


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> According to Electrek , the factory started producing in March this year, and in June achieved 1000 Model Y's in a week.
> The article says they are hoping to produce 50,000 Y's in a year, thats still only about  20% of the total demand, assuming that it continues on that sales trajectory. They hope to ramp it up to double that number, but that would still be only half the sales requirement.
> 
> Mick



December numbers were production of 3000 model Y’s per week, they will achieve 5000 per week this year, which is 260,000 per year.

Tesla have also recently announced plans to continue expanding the Berlin factory, so I don’t think it’s going to stop increasing production until it meets demand.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> Spot on @mullokintyre , I'm with you on that thinking, I think it is risky not having a spare in low population and poor phone coverage areas.
> Mine is a space saver spare from an FG Falcon.



I am a bit more of a risk taker I guess, in 22 years of driving I have never needed a spare tire yet (in my personal car), I hopefully my luck holds out, and if I do need one hopefully I can just call road side assistance.


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> I am a bit more of a risk taker I guess, in 22 years of driving I have never needed a spare tire yet (in my personal car), I hopefully my luck holds out, and if I do need one hopefully I can just call road side assistance.



If I lived on the East Coast I would probably be the same, but over here in the West, it is a large State very thinly populated and lots of areas not covered by mobile networks. Also being stuck on the side of the road in 40c isn't fun, especially if roadside assist isn't available. 🤣
Get a flat between Wubin - Newman and it could be a very long and costly wait.
But as yet I don't think many people in the NW of WA will have EV's, so it probably isn't an issue. We mainly travel South of Perth and East to Kal, the inconvenience would be considerable, so rather than have to listen to the wife if it did happen, I take precautions.
On risk taking, when we crossed the Simpson then on to Innamincka, we had 6 punctures and used two spare cases, the other four could be repaired by putting in tubes, using tyre pliers, but the Kona wont be doing that trip.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> If I lived on the East Coast I would probably be the same, but over here in the West, it is a large State very thinly populated and lots of areas not covered by mobile networks. Also being stuck on the side of the road in 40c isn't fun, especially if roadside assist isn't available. 🤣
> Get a flat between Wubin - Newman and it could be a very long and costly wait.
> But as yet I don't think many people in the NW of WA will have EV's, so it probably isn't an issue. We mainly travel South of Perth and East to Kal, the inconvenience would be considerable, so rather than have to listen to the wife if it did happen, I take precautions.
> On risk taking, when we crossed the Simpson then on to Innamincka, we had 6 punctures and used two spare cases, the other four could be repaired by putting in tubes, using tyre pliers, but the Kona wont be doing that trip.



I own a Tesla tire kit with a pump and some sort of goo that sprays into the tire to fix minor stuff, obviously no good on a complete blow out.

I tend to mainly drive up and down the east coast, the furthest I plan to go is maybe Tasmania.

But yeah if I was planning on doing a lap of Australia I would invest in a spare.


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> I own a Tesla tire kit with a pump and some sort of goo that sprays into the tire to fix minor stuff, obviously no good on a complete blow out.
> 
> I tend to mainly drive up and down the east coast, the furthest I plan to go is maybe Tasmania.
> 
> But yeah if I was planning on doing a lap of Australia I would invest in a spare.



Yes on the East Coast there isn't much likelyhood of being stranded, that's for sure.
With regard the goop spray, the Kona came with it and to be honest I'm not a big fan.
Only my personal thoughts but I tend to think it is ok in bicycle tubes, but with tubeless tyres my personal opinion is the thread type plug is better suited. The reason being is most in City or town punctures these days are a tek screw coming off the back of tradies utes, so the folded over plug pushed in usually seals well and it is easy for the tyre repair joint to remove the tyre and put in a permanent repair plug from inside. I'm not sure they would be interested if the tyre is full of sticky mess.
The second reason is, with the plug, it is possible to grab a tube and put it inside the tyre just to get you out of trouble, again fitting a tube when the tyre is full of goop wouldn't be an option. If you look back at the photo I posted of the spare, there is a small plastic box showing underneath it is one of the tubeless tyre repair kits $15 from memory.
It is just my over cautious nature, but I've never been stuck anyware and we have covered most of Australia, numerous times.
My moto is allow for the worst and hope for the best.  

The Gibber plains near Innamincka, no roadside assist or tyre repair joints out there.🤣
But the Kona will never be there either, having said that, there is plenty of sun and room for a solar powered fast charger.


----------



## JohnDe

sptrawler said:


> By the way @JohnDe De it was great to see in your post my Hyundai Kona came 3rd, I thought I was a bit crazy buying an old school car because it was just like a normal ICE car, but I still like it.
> The economy is excellent, the power is great and the all important range is magic.
> Also I have adapted a spare wheel, which in W.A is a must, there are huge areas of W.A where getting a shredded tyre and not having a spare is just not an option and one of the reasons I decided on the Kona.
> One there is a lot of areas that don't have mobile phone coverage, two they also are low traffic areas even in the South West eg Walpole to Albany and three leave the car there while you go to get a new tyre fitted means you come back to a stripped car.🤣
> Ah Western Australia, you have to love it.
> Horses for courses.
> 
> 
> View attachment 151128


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> Yes on the East Coast there isn't much likelyhood of being stranded, that's for sure.
> With regard the goop spray, the Kona came with it and to be honest I'm not a big fan.
> Only my personal thoughts but I tend to think it is ok in bicycle tubes, but with tubeless tyres my personal opinion is the thread type plug is better suited. The reason being is most in City or town punctures these days are a tek screw coming off the back of tradies utes, so the folded over plug pushed in usually seals well and it is easy for the tyre repair joint to remove the tyre and put in a permanent repair plug from inside. I'm not sure they would be interested if the tyre is full of sticky mess.
> The second reason is, with the plug, it is possible to grab a tube and put it inside the tyre just to get you out of trouble, again fitting a tube when the tyre is full of goop wouldn't be an option. If you look back at the photo I posted of the spare, there is a small plastic box showing underneath it is one of the tubeless tyre repair kits $15 from memory.
> It is just my over cautious nature, but I've never been stuck anyware and we have covered most of Australia, numerous times.
> My moto is allow for the worst and hope for the best.
> 
> The Gibber plains near Innamincka, no roadside assist or tyre repair joints out there.🤣
> But the Kona will never be there either, having said that, there is plenty of sun and room for a solar powered fast charger.
> 
> View attachment 151140



Hopefully I never have to use the goop either, but if I did I will let you guys know.

I agree unless I really was in a bind I think I would avoid the goop  and use a repair kit, I have seen my dad do it a few times.


----------



## sptrawler

Thanks for the road test @JohnDe, that's the exact model I bought, I looked at the Highlander but the problem was it came with a sun roof and I didn't want that.
So I thought o.k I will get the white Highlander and ask for no sunroof, apparently that is o.k, except if you order the white highlander with no sunroof, it has to have a black painted roof WTF.🤪
So I asked what does the Highlander have that the long range Elite doesn't, well electric seats (as opposed to manual seats) heated/cooled seats (well the Jeep had them and we never used them once), front parking sensors (if you can't judge the front of the car when looking out the windscreen you shouldn't be driving it IMO)
So an all over white Elite extended range it was.
I've done 3,500k's in it since November and the more I drive it, the more I like it. 
Yet to take it on a long run, but will do so when this baby sitting grandkids backs off, so probably when school holidays are over.


----------



## mullokintyre

sptrawler said:


> Yet to take it on a long run, but will do so when this baby sitting grandkids backs off, so probably when school holidays are over.



What on earth makes you think the baby sitting grandkids thing ever backs off?
You are there for the long haul, unless you move interstate or overseas!
Mick


----------



## moXJO

sptrawler said:


> This is the main threat to Tesla IMO, the pitchfork crew have been upset, so more and more negative press will be focused on Elon.
> This article is supposed to be about cars, but in reality IMO it is just a rant against Musk, it wasn't long ago the media was his greatest support group.
> I wonder if the media sentiment, will influence their road testing analysis?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Consumers are realising Tesla isn’t the only electric car
> 
> 
> Not long ago, Tesla’s electric vehicles were simply the best on the market. If you wanted a stylish EV, Elon Musk would be your most likely supplier — even if you hated his guts. But not anymore.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theage.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> The new competition makes Musk’s recent role as the town crier for the red-pilled online right especially puzzling and, for his car company, perilous. Musk’s chaotic and polarising tenure as Twitter’s chief executive — during which he’s embraced far-right tropes about gender and journalism and public health, and generally behaved like a rich bully on a power trip — already seems to be battering Tesla’s brand.
> 
> _The Wall Street Journal_ reported last month on a survey by Morning Consult showing that perceptions of Tesla have been falling steadily since May, shortly after Musk began his bid for Twitter; between October and November, the period when Musk took ownership of Twitter, sentiment among Democrats toward Tesla plummeted, while favourability among Republicans rose slightly.
> 
> It’s hard to disagree. A few weeks ago, I test drove Chevy’s new Bolt EUV, the squat electric crossover that is the slightly larger cousin of the Bolt EV, the entry-level electric car that General Motors began selling in 2016. I was bowled over by the new Bolt electric utility vehicle. I found it surprisingly roomy and much nicer on the inside than its staid exterior would suggest.
> I also liked that its interior felt a lot more like a normal car than Musk’s all-touchscreen automotive design style. In the Bolt you can control the air conditioning and other systems with hefty buttons and knobs that are easy to find and manipulate while you’re driving; in a Tesla almost everything is controlled by touching a big screen mounted in the centre console.
> 
> The best thing about Chevy’s Bolt EUV: The model I tried, which was kitted out with nearly every available option, including GM’s fantastic driver-assistance program, Super Cruise, carried a sales price of just under $US38,000. Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, sells for upward of $US45,000 ($65,600). As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?



All the legacy car makers are making low margins with all those bells and whistles. Knobs break, buttons break and they generally have a vastly inferior product. Tesla is gouging with massive margins.

A Tesla y has already done over a million miles. 
Every Tesla has been collecting data that's now in the billions of miles of real worlds worth. It's data collection is unparalleled. It's also extremely valuable for future AI.

They are manufacturing their new battery. 
I think they have the million mile battery guarantee on the semi trucks?

But as you say Elon has bombed the "woke" factor. I'm not sure if this is to help onboard Republicans. But I'm pretty sure it's because he's a social idiot with no thought of consequences.


----------



## orr

Going to the point  above you make  on margins Mox. We only have financails on maybe four *exclusively* EV manufactures, TSLA, Rivian, LUcid and Polestar that have anything like serious production. Those are worth a look at.
I'm under the understanding that  FORD are separating  ICE from EV later this year and those margins will be worth a look at.

as to the short  term;
It's premarket now at $118. I'm in for a taste at that at open. I'm betting on low sales last month rebounding on the $7.5K US rebate kicking in this month.


----------



## moXJO

orr said:


> Going to the point  above you make  on margins Mox. We only have financails on maybe four *exclusively* EV manufactures, TSLA, Rivian, LUcid and Polestar that have anything like serious production. Those are worth a look at.
> I'm under the understanding that  FORD are separating  ICE from EV later this year and those margins will be worth a look at.
> 
> as to the short  term;
> It's premarket now at $118. I'm in for a taste at that at open. I'm betting on low sales last month rebounding on the $7.5K US rebate kicking in this month.



It's such a hard market. My worries currently are:
The China implosion 

Threat of Yank recession despite the current resilience.


Tesla should have multiple good news the next few weeks. But so far what was bullish is currently getting gobbled up in broader negative sentiment. 

We may test $100 and further to $80 just off the China fears alone. I'll probably look at buying a couple between $100-$115 if it hits there again. 

The other companies are just so far behind with manufacturing. Meanwhile Tesla is trying to automate everything to increase margins more.


----------



## sptrawler

moXJO said:


> It's such a hard market. My worries currently are:
> The China implosion
> 
> Threat of Yank recession despite the current resilience.
> 
> 
> Tesla should have multiple good news the next few weeks. But so far what was bullish is currently getting gobbled up in broader negative sentiment.
> 
> We may test $100 and further to $80 just off the China fears alone. I'll probably look at buying a couple between $100-$115 if it hits there again.
> 
> The other companies are just so far behind with manufacturing. Meanwhile Tesla is trying to automate everything to increase margins more.



If Tesla carry debt, which I assume they do, they are susceptible to attack.
As Trump found out, no one is bigger than the system.
The sooner he offloads the twitter brain fart the better, it was great to back a principal, but it's impossible to turn the tide on a sixpence.
Best he gets back to what he was doing best and allow the bigger picture to work itself out IMO.
If he doesn't, Tesla will end up being owned by someone else, like GM or Ford who just make cars and don't try to change the narrative.


----------



## Knobby22

moXJO said:


> It's such a hard market. My worries currently are:
> The China implosion
> 
> Threat of Yank recession despite the current resilience.
> 
> 
> Tesla should have multiple good news the next few weeks. But so far what was bullish is currently getting gobbled up in broader negative sentiment.
> 
> We may test $100 and further to $80 just off the China fears alone. I'll probably look at buying a couple between $100-$115 if it hits there again.
> 
> The other companies are just so far behind with manufacturing. Meanwhile Tesla is trying to automate everything to increase margins more.



$106 now. If you want them.
Missed production targets due to China Covid effects and other China issues I referred to earlier. This is despite recently Tesla saying they would have little impact. 

I think you will get them lower. No one running the company.


----------



## noirua

Live chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^TSLA&t=1&p=0&dm=0&vol=0&width=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240
Longer term chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^TSLA&t=1&p=5&dm=0&vol=0&width=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240









						Tesla reportedly elevates its China boss to head of US plants and sales, making him No. 2 after Elon Musk as $700 billion slump spooks investors
					

Tesla Greater China vice president Tom Zhu will become the EV manufacturer's head of US plants and sales, according to Reuters.




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



Musk's new deputy tends to wear Tesla-branded fleeces rather than a suit and tie – and was one of the first Tesla employees to start sleeping on the factory floor last year when a two-month COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai threatened to shut down production, according to Reuters.


----------



## Knobby22

orr said:


> Going to the point  above you make  on margins Mox. We only have financails on maybe four *exclusively* EV manufactures, TSLA, Rivian, LUcid and Polestar that have anything like serious production. Those are worth a look at.
> I'm under the understanding that  FORD are separating  ICE from EV later this year and those margins will be worth a look at.
> 
> as to the short  term;
> It's premarket now at $118. I'm in for a taste at that at open. I'm betting on low sales last month rebounding on the $7.5K US rebate kicking in this month.




The fact that you point out of the new EV manufacturers who will be operating alongside the legacy manufacturers highlights my competition argument. It will be tougher for Tesla this coming year  and especially 2024 and if one of them has a hit car???

Eps is $3.26, assuming tripling of profits about $10 which I think is likely. So you would think floor of $80 would hold. 
Competition the basis of economic theory and capitalism holds that profits will not be able to continue increasing mediun term.

If Musk accepts the inevitable and walks away fron Twitter then that could help Tesla.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> If Tesla carry debt, which I assume they do, they are susceptible to attack.
> As Trump found out, no one is bigger than the system.



Tesla only have about $2 Billion in Debt, but they have over $20 Billion in cash.

Compare that to Fords position of having $84 Billion in debt and you have another good reason why Fords and Tesla market cap difference is justified.

Not to mention that ford and the other older legacy auto makers carry huge unfunded pension liabilities ($6 Billion gap in fords case), because they have a large amount of people on older defined benefit retirement plans.


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> Tesla only have about $2 Billion in Debt, but they have over $20 Billion in cash.
> 
> Compare that to Fords position of having $84 Billion in debt and you have another good reason why Fords and Tesla market cap difference is justified.
> 
> Not to mention that ford and the other older legacy auto makers carry huge unfunded pension liabilities ($6 Billion gap in fords case), because they have a large amount of people on older defined benefit retirement plans.



I didn't realise they were that liquid, especially when you consider the expansion and growth they have had in manufacturing facilities, yet it is only recently production has increased to a viable level. Pretty amazing achievement.


----------



## Knobby22

Read in the Age that it appears there are unsold cars, not caused by lack of manufacture.


----------



## Trader X

Tesla share price crashes on brutal day for Elon Musk​It would seem that Tesla investors are placing far more importance on Tesla's performance as a car company than some contributors here think should be the case.  Even if one assumes the TSLA P/E ratio should be 2x that of say Toyota, the share price has ever further to fall.


----------



## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> I didn't realise they were that liquid, especially when you consider the expansion and growth they have had in manufacturing facilities, yet it is only recently production has increased to a viable level. Pretty amazing achievement.



They have a very healthy profit margin on their vehicles they sell of nearly 30%, compared to fords 6% profit margin. This profit margin helps Tesla generate a good cashflow which can be used to fund the expansion, so they haven’t had to rely on taking on a lot of debt.

Also, some smart strategies like asking for $1000 deposit on each of the 400,000 model 3 pre orders helped them generate $400,000,000 interest free capital to help fund the expansion of their factory.

But that’s what I was saying when I was comparing fords car wholesaling strategy will teslas build and retail strategy, ford would have a large profit margin per car if they sold directly, but they give up some margin to their dealers.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## waterbottle

Didn't qualify for the EV tax return and now Piedemont Lithium is going to be selling them Li at market prices.


----------



## JohnDe

Trader X said:


> Tesla share price crashes on brutal day for Elon Musk​It would seem that Tesla investors are placing far more importance on Tesla's performance as a car company than some contributors here think should be the case.  Even if one assumes the TSLA P/E ratio should be 2x that of say Toyota, the share price has ever further to fall.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

JohnDe said:


>




I must admit I believe F and GM are a better play atm for EV on NASDAQ. 

gg


----------



## JohnDe

The worlds safest car?



> Two adults and two children somehow escaped serious injuries after their Tesla plunged off a cliff along California’s Pacific Coast Highway and crashed on a rocky beach some 250 feet below.
> 
> The incident occurred Monday morning at an area called Devil’s Slide, some 20 miles south of San Francisco.
> 
> “We were very shocked” to discover that people in the car had survived the crash, said Brian Pottenger, battalion chief with Cal Fire’s Coastside Fire Protection District.
> 
> “Accidents on that cliff are not rare. We do respond to a lot of vehicles on that cliff,” he told CNN. “What’s rare is that we do not get a lot of survivors – surviving this type of accident is very rare.”
> 
> Pottenger said the car contained an adult male, an adult female, a 9-year-old boy and a 4-year-old girl. The children were both secured in car seats, which remained intact and in place, he said.












						Tesla plunges 250 feet off a California cliff, all 4 occupants survive | CNN
					

Two adults and two children somehow escaped serious injuries after their Tesla plunged off a cliff along California's Pacific Coast Highway and crashed on a rocky beach some 250 feet below.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Tesla only have about $2 Billion in Debt, but they have over $20 Billion in cash.
> 
> Compare that to Fords position of having $84 Billion in debt and you have another good reason why Fords and Tesla market cap difference is justified.
> 
> Not to mention that ford and the other older legacy auto makers carry huge unfunded pension liabilities ($6 Billion gap in fords case), because they have a large amount of people on older defined benefit retirement plans.



Legacy may well go broke. A lot needs to happen before the competition can even compete in numbers let alone profitability.



Knobby22 said:


> $106 now. If you want them.
> Missed production targets due to China Covid effects and other China issues I referred to earlier. This is despite recently Tesla saying they would have little impact.
> 
> I think you will get them lower. No one running the company.



Tesla is thinking sentiment to good news is still in bullish mode and a boost factor. The truth is that sentiment is well and truly bearish, especially for Tesla. Great for a stock buyback I suppose, not so good for investors.

They missed their target with a few hiccups. One being the covid zero strategy (reason I don't like extended lockdowns is now being played out in China).
Which pretty much branched out to the rest of the world with messed up trade.

Another being the amount of brand damage that was done. This is discounted by a lot of analysts, but in my opinion is a big negative and will drag on sales. The worst possible timing as well- literally during money contraction. And p1ssing off the government in power.... especially one that holds grudges.

Also- the cybertruck looks stupid.


----------



## moXJO

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I believe F and GM are a better play atm for EV on NASDAQ.
> 
> gg



If anything, it's which of the big manufacturers go broke. This is a real possibility.


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> If anything, it's which of the big manufacturers go broke. This is a real possibility.















						List of most indebted companies - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Trader X

JohnDe said:


>




Deep value is emerging in TSLA, no doubt the current negative sentiment will abate and the shorts will need to cover at some point.


----------



## Knobby22

Trader X said:


> Tesla share price crashes on brutal day for Elon Musk​It would seem that Tesla investors are placing far more importance on Tesla's performance as a car company than some contributors here think should be the case.  Even if one assumes the TSLA P/E ratio should be 2x that of say Toyota, the share price has ever further to fall.



Changed your mind pretty quickly.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Still another 54% drop to reach the price that the CEO opined is too high...


----------



## Trader X

Knobby22 said:


> Changed your mind pretty quickly.



Not really, still think TSLA has further falls ahead.  At some point this selloff will bottom as interest rate rises come to an end and inflation slows or reverses.  At that point in time, growth stocks like TSLA will likely come back onto the radar of value investors.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> If anything, it's which of the big manufacturers go broke. This is a real possibility.



I am not sure any of the big guys are going to go bust, they might not have to much cashflow left for servicing their share holders though once they have serviced their debt holders and pension plans.


----------



## moXJO

Knobby22 said:


> Changed your mind pretty quickly.



I'm both ways on it- between short and long term. Huge future potential and the top engineer's in the world. But black swan machine gunned in the current market amid some very questionable decisions. 

Also the repricing of everything in a world of tightening money.


----------



## JohnDe

I’m not keen on it, but it has garnered a huge following from futurists, and over 100,000 orders


----------



## mullokintyre

China may well be showing the world that Tesla will find that its lead in the EV market can be very quickly eroded.
From Bloombergs



> Tesla Inc. shares extended their slump after the carmaker made another round of price cuts in China’s increasingly competitive electric vehicle market.
> The starting price for Tesla’s locally built Model Y sport utility vehicle has dropped 10% to a new low of 259,900 yuan ($37,875), according to the company’s China website. That standard-range, rear-wheel-drive version costs 43% less than the base Model Y available in the US, which has a longer range and is all-wheel-drive. Tesla also lowered the price of the Model 3 by 14% to 229,900 yuan, about 30% cheaper than in the US.
> Tesla already cut prices in October, as China’s mass market and premium EV segments becomes increasingly crowded by the likes of domestic players BYD Co., Xpeng Inc. and Nio Inc., as well as international stalwarts Porsche AG and Mercedes Benz Group AG.
> 
> “This time it’s serious,” Chris McNally, an Evercore ISI analyst with the equivalent of a hold rating on Tesla, said in a note. The new entry price for the Model 3 is likely to combat BYD’s recently introduced and popular Seal model, he wrote.
> 
> Tesla shares fell 3.5% as of 9:55 a.m. New York time Friday. Signs of deteriorating prospects for Tesla in China and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s preoccupation with Twitter Inc. contributed to the carmaker’s stock plunging 37% in December and 65% in 2022, its worst monthly and yearly performances.



According to Nikkei , 


> Tesla cut electric car prices in China for the second time in less than three months on Friday, stoking expectations for a wider price war for battery-powered vehicles in the world's largest auto market where demand has weakened.
> 
> *Tesla also cut prices on its best-selling Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles in Japan, South Korea and Australia.*



I cannot imagine that these price cuts are due to a lowering of production costs, especially as most economies still have inflation going through the pipelines.
The issue here is that increase in competitive products have forced teslas hand in lowering prices.
The breakaway Market leaders generally come back to the peleton.
Mick


----------



## qldfrog

I tried an entry yesterday around 110usd which was exited via SL at open last night.tried again today.
Low conviction but if market has a bear rally bump in the US, TSLA might benefit even more?


----------



## Value Collector

mullokintyre said:


> China may well be showing the world that Tesla will find that its lead in the EV market can be very quickly eroded.
> From Bloombergs
> 
> 
> According to Nikkei ,
> 
> I cannot imagine that these price cuts are due to a lowering of production costs, especially as most economies still have inflation going through the pipelines.
> The issue here is that increase in competitive products have forced teslas hand in lowering prices.
> The breakaway Market leaders generally come back to the peleton.
> Mick



I don’t know the cause of this round of price drops, but they have reduced prices a few times as they have been scaling up production.

Out of all the car makers they do have the highest margins, so do have the most room to reduce prices.

————————

One important thing to remember is that Tesla is guaranteed to lose market share as other company’s bring evs to market, but this isn’t bad because the EV market is expanding, and Teslas sales will continue to grow.

Eg having a 50% market share of a 1 million car market is better than having a 100% market share of a 1 thousand car market.

No doubt you will see articles that say Tesla is losing ground to competitors, even as they continue to grow sales, market share is kind of irrelevant.


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> China may well be showing the world that Tesla will find that its lead in the EV market can be very quickly eroded.
> From Bloombergs
> 
> 
> According to Nikkei ,
> 
> I cannot imagine that these price cuts are due to a lowering of production costs, especially as most economies still have inflation going through the pipelines.
> The issue here is that increase in competitive products have forced teslas hand in lowering prices.
> The breakaway Market leaders generally come back to the peleton.
> Mick


----------



## basilio

I'm  intrigued by the issues around the commercialisation of the 4860 battery pack. This was always intended to be the big break for Tesla.  A much more powerful, efficient and cheaper battery pack that would keep Tesla ahead of competitors.

It seems to be  struggling at the moment to fully realise the reliability and cost effective components of the battery.  There was an excellent article offered on ASF by another poster (sorry can't remember who ) which cast doubt of whether these problems would be  easily fixable. If that is the case it could open the door for new competitors in the race to  drop battery prices.

I also think that Elons focus on Twitter and the loss of respect for him amongst many potential customers is taking the sheen off  Tesla products. That is translating into the collapse of the SP and the the softening of demand .









						Inside Tesla's drive to keep Musk's battery promise
					

The secret behind Elon Musk's goal of selling 20 million Tesla's a year by 2030 lies in its pioneering battery technology.




					www.reuters.com
				




https://medium.com › predict › teslas-revolutionary-4680-has-a-massive-problem-8e89c18a59c8
Tesla's "Revolutionary" 4680 Has A Massive Problem​Nov 22, 2022So *Tesla's* "revolutionary *battery* pack" is far from what Musk indicated. In fact, it seems like this project is going nowhere fast. This is a huge *problem* for *Tesla* because, let's not ...


----------



## basilio

Found another analysis of the new 4680 battery pack.  Few gremlins there..

Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y​




	

		
			
		

		
	
Giga Texas assembles the 4680 Model Y (image: Tesla)
Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.
Daniel Zlatev, Published 11/18/2022 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 ...
E-Mobility









						Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y
					

Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.




					www.notebookcheck.net


----------



## basilio

This analysis of the repairablity of the  4860 battery pack is also a concern IMV.  I suppose however if the pack last a million miles who cares ? But you wouldn't want any significant issues with reliability in the 8 year/240k  warranty period.









						New Tesla Model Y structural 4680 cell pack spells the end of cheap electric car battery repairs
					

The new cell-to-chassis EV battery packs will make fixing a bad unit a replacement rather than repair game. Repairability of the new Model Y 4680 structural battery pack is 'essentially zero,' according to Cory from Munro & Associates whose teams took two days just to get into the battery.




					www.notebookcheck.net


----------



## JohnDe

basilio said:


> Found another analysis of the new 4680 battery pack.  Few gremlins there..
> 
> Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y​
> View attachment 151355
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Giga Texas assembles the 4680 Model Y (image: Tesla)
> Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.
> Daniel Zlatev, Published 11/18/2022 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 ...
> E-Mobility
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y
> 
> 
> Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.notebookcheck.net


----------



## basilio

JohnDe said:


>




Interesting.  I notice that this is a paper analysis based on the information provided by the companies and the schematics of the various design options.

The concern with Teslas 4860 battery is the build process is not going according to Hoyle. Resolving those problems is the issue.


----------



## moXJO

basilio said:


> This analysis of the repairablity of the  4860 battery pack is also a concern IMV.  I suppose however if the pack last a million miles who cares ? But you wouldn't want any significant issues with reliability in the 8 year/240k  warranty period.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Tesla Model Y structural 4680 cell pack spells the end of cheap electric car battery repairs
> 
> 
> The new cell-to-chassis EV battery packs will make fixing a bad unit a replacement rather than repair game. Repairability of the new Model Y 4680 structural battery pack is 'essentially zero,' according to Cory from Munro & Associates whose teams took two days just to get into the battery.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.notebookcheck.net



Rather listen to Sandy Munro. 
https://m.youtube.com/@MunroLive/videos
The pack should last 1 million miles with 10% degradation I thought. 

Remember when you could change the battery out of your phone?
Well it got to a point where it's no longer needed.
The 4860 is designed for reliability. Its likely impossible to service. But it doesn't use screws or wires (which are high high % rate fails). I'm sure it was press fit and the whole thing done in a way to be as reliable as possible. A lot of the guys that like to reuse and repurpose batteries do not like it though.

So the big take is do you want serviceability or something manufactured not to break. Hmm what cars have dealerships that make a butt tonne of money from servicing cars.


----------



## moXJO

Details here on battery savings, info:

https://www.takomabattery.com/tesla-4680-battery/

So the manufacturing space needed, costs and processes are greatly reduced.
So no it's still good

Video detailing some of the problems:


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> *Remember when you could change the battery out of your phone?*
> Well it got to a point where it's no longer needed.
> The 4860 is designed for reliability. Its likely impossible to service. But it doesn't use screws or wires (which are high high % rate fails). I'm sure it was press fit and the whole thing done in a way to be as reliable as possible. A lot of the guys that like to reuse and repurpose batteries do not like it though.
> 
> So the big take is do you want serviceability or something manufactured not to break. Hmm what cars have dealerships that make a butt tonne of money from servicing cars.




We were talking about this the other night.

I have used an Apple iPhone for work for years, the early ones would just get me through a workday. I would know it was time to upgrade the phone, when I it no longer could get through the day without adding charge.

My current phone is an iPhone 12 pro, it still gets through the whole day and all the way until I go to bed at night when I charge it while I sleep.

I use my mobile all day long, from 6am till I go to bed at night. Phone calls all day long, surfing the internet, checking my email, making orders, checking deliveries, updating my website and social media, editing photos, and so on.

The current iPhone is the 14, I've thought about upgrading but I can't see any benefit yet. Not with my 12 battery still working after 14+ hours of continual use.

Battery management is what has been the big difference in battery life.


----------



## moXJO

JohnDe said:


> We were talking about this the other night.
> 
> I have used an Apple iPhone for work for years, the early ones would just get me through a workday. I would know it was time to upgrade the phone, when I it no longer could get through the day without adding charge.
> 
> My current phone is an iPhone 12 pro, it still gets through the whole day and all the way until I go to bed at night when I charge it while I sleep.
> 
> I use my mobile all day long, from 6am till I go to bed at night. Phone calls all day long, surfing the internet, checking my email, making orders, checking deliveries, updating my website and social media, editing photos, and so on.
> 
> The current iPhone is the 14, I've thought about upgrading but I can't see any benefit yet. Not with my 12 battery still working after 14+ hours of continual use.
> 
> Battery management is what has been the big difference in battery life.



I had a Samsung galaxy s5 up to 2019 or so and the battery wasn't an issue. I'm not big on changing things that work fine unless its tools in trade. 
I have battery tools from 23 years ago (obviously with degradation though) that work fine. 

Teslas batteries are as much about the manufacturing process, as they are about cost, efficiency, design at scale. 
The purpose is to take advantage of being able to manufacture as many cars as possible to beat the competition in a market that will explode the closer we get to carbon zero.


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> I had a Samsung galaxy s5 up to 2019 or so and the battery wasn't an issue. I'm not big on changing things that work fine unless its tools in trade.
> I have battery tools from 23 years ago (obviously with degradation though) that work fine.
> 
> Teslas batteries are as much about the manufacturing process, as they are about cost, efficiency, design at scale.
> The purpose is to take advantage of being able to manufacture as many cars as possible to beat the competition in a market that will explode the closer we get to carbon zero.




My first phone was a Nokia, huge battery on it and I hardly used it back then. The only calls I would make was to a couple of family members and friends, no need for it at work. Even with the minimal calls, no web surfing or games, the battery would need charging after 8 hours.

I always thought Nokia was the bee's knees, I could only afford the basic one back then. Wow. How things change in a short time


----------



## moXJO

JohnDe said:


> My first phone was a Nokia, huge battery on it and I hardly used it back then. The only calls I would make was to a couple of family members and friends, no need for it at work. Even with the minimal calls, no web surfing or games, the battery would need charging after 8 hours.
> 
> I always thought Nokia was the bee's knees, I could only afford the basic one back then. Wow. How things change in a short time



Mate of mine use to use his phone as a weapon when jumped back in 1999. You could knock people out with them back then with no damage to the phone. Now that's a feature.

I had a Sony ericsson t28 because the flip phone looked cool.
Imo 1999 was just the right amount of tech to life balance. I could still online trade back then too.


----------



## Value Collector

JohnDe said:


> We were talking about this the other night.
> 
> I have used an Apple iPhone for work for years, the early ones would just get me through a workday. I would know it was time to upgrade the phone, when I it no longer could get through the day without adding charge.
> 
> My current phone is an iPhone 12 pro, it still gets through the whole day and all the way until I go to bed at night when I charge it while I sleep.
> 
> I use my mobile all day long, from 6am till I go to bed at night. Phone calls all day long, surfing the internet, checking my email, making orders, checking deliveries, updating my website and social media, editing photos, and so on.
> 
> The current iPhone is the 14, I've thought about upgrading but I can't see any benefit yet. Not with my 12 battery still working after 14+ hours of continual use.
> 
> Battery management is what has been the big difference in battery life.



The biggest killer of phone batteries is when people charge them to 100% and let them sit there all night, and then drain them to 0%.

Apple IPhone now have the ability to smart charge, in that if they now you put the phone on charge every night, it will stop charging at 80% and then finish charging close to the time you usually pick it up in the morning.

You have to activate that setting though.


----------



## mullokintyre

Tesla is still losing friends in China.
From Reuters


> SHANGHAI, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Hundreds of Tesla (TSLA.O) owners gathered at the automaker's showrooms and distribution centres in China over the weekend, demanding rebates and credit after sudden price cuts they said meant they had overpaid for electric cars they bought earlier.
> 
> On Saturday, about 200 recent buyers of the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 gathered at a Tesla delivery centre in Shanghai to protest against the U.S. carmaker's decision to slash prices for the second time in three months on Friday.
> Many said they had believed that prices Tesla charged for its cars late last year would not be cut as abruptly or as deeply as the automaker just announced in a move to spur sales and support production at its Shanghai plant. The scheduled expiration of a government subsidy at the end of 2022 also drove many to finalize their purchases.
> Videos posted on social media showed crowds at Tesla stores and delivery centres in other Chinese cities from Chengdu to Shenzhen, suggesting wider consumer backlash.
> After Friday's surprise discounts, Tesla's EV prices in China are now between 13% and 24% below their September levels.
> 
> Analysts have said Tesla's move was likely to boost its sales, which tumbled in December, and force other EV makers to cut prices too at a time of faltering demand in the world's largest market for battery-powered cars.
> 
> While established automakers often discount to manage inventory and keep factories running when demand weakens, Tesla operates without dealerships and transparent pricing has been part of its brand image.



Those Chinese can be so fickle.
I am going to guess that the Chinese will  keep making their EV's cheaper and cheaper to drive the competition out of business.
Has worked  for damn near everything else.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

Got an email from Tesl this morning telling about their new pricing structure ( i.e. they are now cheaper).
So those people who have already ordered but not yet taken delivery,, are they going to get the new prices I wonder?
Noticed that Teslas hare price has come off recent lows, but is still at the same price as it was in August 2020.
Mick


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## frugal.rock

If I was thinking of trading Tesla, I'd consider trading these leveraged products rather than Tesla itself.
1,2 or 3 x long or short. 









						3x Tesla (TSLA) Long ETP | Leverage Shares ETPs
					

The Leverage Shares +3x Long Tesla (TSLA) seeks to track the iSTOXX Leveraged 3x TSLA Index, which is designed to provide plus3x the daily return, adjusted to reflect the fees and costs of maintaining a leveraged position in the stock.




					leverageshares.com


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## rcw1

mullokintyre said:


> Got an email from Tesl this morning telling about their new pricing structure ( i.e. they are now cheaper).
> So those people who have already ordered but not yet taken delivery,, are they going to get the new prices I wonder?



Good afternoon mullokintyre
Yes 👍.

Kind regards 
rcw1


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## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Got an email from Tesl this morning telling about their new pricing structure ( i.e. they are now cheaper).
> So those people who have already ordered but not yet taken delivery,, are they going to get the new prices I wonder?
> Noticed that Teslas hare price has come off recent lows, but is still at the same price as it was in August 2020.
> Mick




There’s an article that came out last week about this, different discounts for different countries.

5 years ago, Elon Musk said that Tesla would be working on building the best EVs & better processes to bring costs down.

When I ordered my Tesla I received one of the several discounts that Tesla have offered over the past 3 years of Aussie sales.

Yes, they get the discount.


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