# Predictions for ASX Opening Tomorrow



## wideboythin (25 November 2007)

Whats the feeling out there for the opening of the ASX tomorrow? Traditionally after an election it can go wither way but down seems more common that up. Whats the general consensus for this election, North or South?


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## nizar (25 November 2007)

wideboythin said:


> Whats the feeling out there for the opening of the ASX tomorrow? Traditionally after an election it can go wither way but down seems more common that up. Whats the general consensus for this election, North or South?




North.


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## wideboythin (25 November 2007)

Any particular reason for the north prediction?


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## YELNATS (25 November 2007)

wideboythin said:


> Any particular reason for the north prediction?




If I may jump in on your question, maybe:

1. Dow Jones up 181.84 points on Friday.
2. Federal election is over, removal of uncertainty.

regards, YN


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## wideboythin (25 November 2007)

Thanks for the info, I am new to these forums and new to trading so am just looking for any knowlege out there that will help. Thanks again.


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## nizar (25 November 2007)

YELNATS said:


> If I may jump in on your question, maybe:
> 
> 1. Dow Jones up 181.84 points on Friday.
> 2. Federal election is over, removal of uncertainty.
> ...




Gold price through the roof as well.

But it will be interesting to see if the rally is bought OR dumped into.


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## wideboythin (25 November 2007)

Gold Price, ok, another thing for me to keep an eye on. Thanks very much, Come on people, theres gotta be more opinions on this issue than that? Get your 10c worth in here. Theres got to be dozens of people with an opinion on this.


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## tech/a (26 November 2007)

Check the SPI futures--the answer is there.


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## Kauri (26 November 2007)

Retail sales for the first day of the holiday shopping season in the US.. (known as Black Friday.. will the retailers finish in the black for the christmas season) was around 8% to 8.5% up on last year. Black friday sales usually account for 4.5% to 5% of total holiday sales... so initial indications are that the US consumer is not slowing... yet... of course a lot of that is on credit!!!!
The US market has always been predominently driven by the consumer..
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## alphman (26 November 2007)

Markets tipped for a post-poll rebound


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## Pager (26 November 2007)

My 

I think the Labor win has been anticipated, just about every poll had them down to win, so the market got what was expected so I think it will have little impact, if I had to choose then it would be up rather than down by the end of the day as any uncertainty and I think there was very little has passed.


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## nizar (26 November 2007)

tech/a said:


> Check the SPI futures--the answer is there.




Link?


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## wideboythin (26 November 2007)

So much good info out there, this thread could be kept going as a feeling for the next days opening eveyday. Keep the ideas comming, just what a new person to the markets like myself and many others no doubt need. Thanks everyone.


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## tech/a (26 November 2007)

Nizar.

You'll know in 5 mins.

But for future reference.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=APS-SFE&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=


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## wayneL (26 November 2007)

tech/a said:


> Nizar.
> 
> You'll know in 5 mins.
> 
> ...



You're better off selecting the contract on the SPI, in this case, the Z (Dec) 2007 contract, rather than letting futuresource default to what it thinks is the spot. Otherwise the lack of liquidity will be misleading at times.

Try http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=APS Z7-SFE&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st= 

But bear in mind this expires soon, in which case you can select the next tradable contract : H (Mar) 2008

Also bear in mind the data is delayed by 20 minutes or so.


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## macca (26 November 2007)

Hi Nizar,

Go to SFE and open a game account.

http://sfetradinggame.if5.com/home.aspx

You can log in and it will give you live feed for the current contract right through the open market.

Macca


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## wideboythin (28 November 2007)

Thanks so much for all the great stuff there. Loads of help to not only me i'm betting. Any more gold nuggets out there for tomorrows opening? Looking good based on what i can find but who knows what the US market will do! I guess we'll find out in a few minutes.....


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## JTLP (28 November 2007)

wideboythin said:


> Thanks so much for all the great stuff there. Loads of help to not only me i'm betting. Any more gold nuggets out there for tomorrows opening? Looking good based on what i can find but who knows what the US market will do! I guess we'll find out in a few minutes.....




Ermmm not really re: US market. You can watch it open up in the green (as I did last night) then scoot off to bed, only to find it 230+ in the red and think where did it go wrong?

Some nights i have watched it to 3:30am and its been ok, again just to wake up and see a crash. US sucks


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## overule (28 November 2007)

US market has been very volatile. When it tumbled, so does everything else. 
With the ongoing credit issues, i think this is just the beginning. I will be really surprised if the bank can rally back up to where it was. 

Traders are taking advantage of any good news with the subprime market. Just like today's news "Citi Sells Stake to Abu Dhabi Fund", how funny that everyone starts buying bank shares!!


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## wideboythin (2 December 2007)

So whats the feeling out there for tomorrow?


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## chewy (2 December 2007)

wideboythin said:


> So whats the feeling out there for tomorrow?




Futures suggest flat - but I think it will be positive. US hasn't had a week that good for ages. Sentiment seems to be swinging towards positive market sentiment and less doomsdaying. just imo


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## Nyden (2 December 2007)

chewy said:


> Futures suggest flat - but I think it will be positive. US hasn't had a week that good for ages. Sentiment seems to be swinging towards positive market sentiment and less doomsdaying. just imo




Gains in some stocks, flat/drops for others. Certain commodity stocks might continue their rise on the back of some price gains, but we may see some conservative selling until later in the afternoon when a more clear image emerges on how the US markets may fair. Gosh, I sound like that twat Petrowski


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## Fab (2 December 2007)

wideboythin said:


> So whats the feeling out there for tomorrow?




It has to be up but not strongly


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## vishalt (2 December 2007)

Futures are a bit flat, but commodity prices were up. 

I'm expecting Rio to shine and BHP to be a bit flat.


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## wideboythin (4 December 2007)

This forum is thread is turning out to be very helpful for a beginner like myself. Thanks everyone. I am learning a lot.


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## chewy (6 December 2007)

Should be a ripper today!  Dow strongly up and all the futures indicate a very strong opening


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## wideboythin (12 December 2007)

wots gonna happen today! helluva movement last nite in the US!


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## alphman (12 December 2007)

I reckon the sell down in the US overnight was a tad overdone.  They got what they expected (quarter point cut), just not what they wanted (half point cut).  Big whoop!

The ASX is following suit as usual but uncalled for.  The DOW should pick up over the next few days, IMO.


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## nick2fish (12 December 2007)

Yea thats an understatement and a half. Talk about sour grapes and greed. They have major problems over there ,and the Dow throws a wobbly over a tid bit of a per cent. Why are we still following those jerks. Why don't they toughen up!!! have their recession (that they deserve for being greedy idiots) and while they are about tightening their bloated waist belts .... fix up their burgeoning national and personnel debt levels.


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## Temjin (12 December 2007)

nick2fish said:


> Yea thats an understatement and a half. Talk about sour grapes and greed. They have major problems over there ,and the Dow throws a wobbly over a tid bit of a per cent. Why are we still following those jerks. Why don't they toughen up!!! have their recession (that they deserve for being greedy idiots) and while they are about tightening their bloated waist belts .... fix up their burgeoning national and personnel debt levels.




Ohhh, we are really no better off than they are. Everyone are responsible because of all the cheap credits we were given since after the tech bust. Our personal debt levels are just as worst as they are.


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## sassa (13 December 2007)

Hong Kong and Japan caught the American cough today.It seems the cough might persist tonight in America.The European markets are catching it tonight.Must be a hemispheric phenomenon as we haven't felt or caught it yet.Tomorrow maybe?Santa rally!Hope he is packing his sleigh tonight for delivery next week.


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## Wysiwyg (13 December 2007)

sassa said:


> Hong Kong and Japan caught the American cough today.It seems the cough might persist tonight in America.The European markets are catching it tonight.Must be a hemispheric phenomenon as we haven't felt or caught it yet.Tomorrow maybe?Santa rally!Hope he is packing his sleigh tonight for delivery next week.





Hello Sassa,  What cough??????



> Fact or opinion?
> Quote:
> Lest there are any doubts, here is the Richard Russell position on the stock market. We are in a primary bear market. The bear market was signalled when, on November 21, the D-J Industrials Average closed below its August 16 low of 12845.78, thereby confirming the prior breakdown of the Transports.




Who is we?????What in the statement do you believe to be true????


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## sassa (13 December 2007)

Wysiwyg said:


> Hello Sassa,  What cough??????
> 
> Should I have said sneeze? A 273 point gain at opening to a 31 point gain at close.
> 
> Who is we?????What in the statement do you believe to be true????



"We," I would imagine is the good old U.S.of A.I prefaced my paste with fact or opinion.I was asking you,the contributors.


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## wideboythin (17 December 2007)

What next! take my eyes off the market for a day on Friday for a few days away with the family and come back to chaos! Any predictions for the week?


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

Seems like no one has predicted todays drop.


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

I predict a bad one today. I'll sell the stock I purchased yesterday (which was a bargain prices) as I think this will be one of the worst weeks we've seen for a while.

We'll see in 1 and half hours.


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## shaunm (18 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I predict a bad one today. I'll sell the stock I purchased yesterday (which was a bargain prices) as I think this will be one of the worst weeks we've seen for a while.
> 
> We'll see in 1 and half hours.




Do you really think it is going to be that bad?
Does that strategy run the risk of increasing your losses if you can't buy lower than your sell price?
Hopefully the bargain hunters will minimise the damage.
We have 3-4 days to wait for the "Santa Rally"


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I predict a bad one today. I'll sell the stock I purchased yesterday (which was a bargain prices) as I think this will be one of the worst weeks we've seen for a while.
> 
> We'll see in 1 and half hours.




Lemmings active again I see.


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## explod (18 December 2007)

shaunm said:


> Do you really think it is going to be that bad?
> Does that strategy run the risk of increasing your losses if you can't buy lower than your sell price?
> Hopefully the bargain hunters will minimise the damage.
> We have 3-4 days to wait for the "Santa Rally"




Driving back home after a few days of rest at Port Fairy when I saw Santa iffigy upended with his legs sticking out of an old steam engine smoke stack at a place called Killarney.   So the rally delivery may not be.


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## Nyden (18 December 2007)

shaunm said:


> Do you really think it is going to be that bad?
> Does that strategy run the risk of increasing your losses if you can't buy lower than your sell price?
> Hopefully the bargain hunters will minimise the damage.
> We have 3-4 days to wait for the "Santa Rally"




There isn't going to be a Santa rally, maybe a Santa restoration (restoring some of the damage done *during* the lead up to Christmas), however I doubt that as well.

I believe we'll have another terribly red day, unfortunately  If base metals had gone up, would be a different story - but, there really isn't *anything* positive to cling to...so, why would any bargain hunters come in yet? The general consensus is that we have *not* hit the bottom, all of the cash-holders are just laughing it up, & waiting.

Unless things pickup in 08, next dividend season for each of my stocks I'm selling out, & coming back as a day trader


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Lemmings active again I see.




OR possibly the ignorant have their eyes closed.


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> OR possibly the ignorant have their eyes closed.




Sometimes the best things happen when you lie back and close your eyes, relax and see what the world has to offer. Sometimes it is better than the hustle and bustle of the "other" world. Today is a good day to go fishing.


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## habs (18 December 2007)

If it drops another 100 or so over this week, there will be some very serious bargains to be had, and im not talking about top 50... some stuff is starting to look pretty cheap just like it did mid year...that was brilliant back then for cheap stock.


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> OR possibly the ignorant have their eyes closed.




I agree. I guess us "lemmings" still have our capital. I sold on Friday and have saved nearly 10% of my capital. 

Rather be a "Lemming" than a  broke Ostridge.


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Sometimes the best things happen when you lie back and close your eyes, relax and see what the world has to offer. Sometimes it is better than the hustle and bustle of the "other" world. Today is a good day to go fishing.




No doubt about that.

But you are calling members lemmings and having no respect for their point of view.

You might be right, who knows but one thing i do know is the profits i locked in yesterday are real and can't be taken away from me, until the tax man has his share, can you say the same?

Time will tell, as it always does.


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## Nyden (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Sometimes the best things happen when you lie back and close your eyes, relax and see what the world has to offer. Sometimes it is better than the hustle and bustle of the "other" world. Today is a good day to go fishing.





Alright Nioka, you're happy because of AGM, that's fine. However, the majority of us (who are long) are anything *but* happy (unless using this as a buying op), & aside from CSL I can't find a single stock that's in the green (AGM seems to be bobbing up & down).

I don't think anyone *anticipated* AGM being pursued yesterday, & I don't think it was any kind of miraculous skill. However, if it had not happened - value or no value, AGM would have gotten hammered yesterday a long with everything else. No one can say what value is, not today, not tomorrow - the market has gone to hell lately, & of course it matters to investors what current prices are; people on occasion *do* need to pull out emergency funds for one reason or another, people may be retiring in a few years, & to see their Super fund dip 10% in a matter of days is very painful.

I'm very happy for you mate with regards to AGM, but please understand that not everyone was as lucky as you! 

I am of course not selling, not at these prices - in my *opinion* a lot of stocks are vastly undervalued at the moment, but that means absolutely squat.


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> No doubt about that.
> 
> But you are calling members lemmings and having no respect for their point of view.
> 
> ...




I agree. There's no need to "potty mouth" those that don't share the same strategy as you do. At the time of my typing this post the market is 2.6% down and counting. I don't doubt there are opportunities for bargains, if and when the selling stops.

 At this stage my "lemmings" strategy has given me OVER 10% more capital that it otherwise would have.


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## wayneL (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Lemmings active again I see.



There appear to be a number of myths about Lemmings.

The truth is that when the time is right, many just get the hell out of Dodge and set up somewhere else. It's not mass suicide as proposed by legend, but rather, mass survival. 

Go Lemmings!


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

wayneL said:


> There appear to be a number of myths about Lemmings
> Go Lemmings!




There are as many myths about the share market as there are about the lemmings. The problem is seperating the myths from the facts.


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## wayneL (19 December 2007)

nioka said:


> There are as many myths about the share market as there are about the lemmings. The problem is seperating the myths from the facts.



I know one myth I can dispel: Lemmings don't trade stocks.


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## wideboythin (19 December 2007)

Finally someone talking sense! well done!


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## nioka (19 December 2007)

wayneL said:


> I know one myth I can dispel: Lemmings don't trade stocks.



Lemmings relate to the stock market in the form of computer generated stock loss triggers. The market has a small fall and it triggers some stop loss sales. This causes the market to fall more which triggers some more stop loss orders. Ditto, ditto, ditto. and there is the lemming factor.


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## nioka (19 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Lemmings relate to the stock market in the form of computer generated stock loss triggers. The market has a small fall and it triggers some stop loss sales. This causes the market to fall more which triggers some more stop loss orders. Ditto, ditto, ditto. and there is the lemming factor.



 I should have added margin calls. When this sort of drop in the market occurs then margin calls become another lemming.
 As this is on opening prediction thread can i suggest the lemming run is mostly over, except for the next Rams or Centro.


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## wideboythin (7 January 2008)

Haven't had a comment in here for a few days but tomorrow is gonna be a big one. Whats the feeling out there? Anyone got any good news?


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## >Apocalypto< (7 January 2008)

UP UP UP 600% 

This bull run has JUST BEGUN! LOAD BOYS ITS GOING TO THE MOON!


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## shares (8 January 2008)

You would hope that the asx will go up tomorrow.

I see a pattern forming:

Monday: opened down stayed down
Tuesday: opened up went down
Wednesday: opens up stays up :


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## ithatheekret (11 January 2008)

I would say any bank that had exposure to Countrywide , should rise today , a good one too .

The only Bank that get good synergies from CW , could break this company up
that's Bank of America , there's other benefits related to the distressed investing . Pencilled in should be the catalyst . But I expect it to be the smart money in first ... this is still only a rumour !

Doesn't put the fantastic plastic lenders on the beach yet though .......


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## ithatheekret (11 January 2008)

Was anyone else game to risk a punt on banks today ?

I've bought NAB back and some ANZ in the kids trust. Nothing huge , just a touch up with some fx residue .

I did ask if we would see a discount in trading costs per transaction .

They're going to get back to me , this could be good , or it couldn't either


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## wideboythin (14 January 2008)

Tomorrow is going to be a big one I suggest. Anyone got a feeling how far this bump is gonna go? Buying opportunity i guess but you gotta have money to do that!


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## vishalt (18 January 2008)

Like a hot knife through butter, futures are already crushed 2.5%, not surprised if we end up at 5650. 

Remember those days when the market couldn't stop going up?


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## Nyden (18 January 2008)

Sigh. Why even label it as a prediction :
Let's just call it a fact! It'll be slaughtered today, slaughtered on Monday, slaughtered every day until the US get their nerve back adequately enough to set a couple of good examples. The ASX apparently needs a few solid gains from the US before we start buying.

I really don't blame people for our lack of rally, who would be buying? Why buy on a rally when it's almost *assured* the US will take a dive tomorrow, or the next day, and we'll most likely follow.

Quit waiting for a bottom, greedy traders :


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## wayneL (18 January 2008)

Holy Dooley!

SYCOM is trading at 5630 just before US close.

Fugly open in store.


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## Aussiejeff (18 January 2008)

shares said:


> You would hope that the asx will go up tomorrow.
> 
> I see a pattern forming:
> 
> ...




Dont take up crystal ball gazing for a living, shares! The reality - 

Wednesday: opened down, stayed down.
Thursday: opened way down, stayed way down.
Friday:? (my tip - opens waaaay down, stays waaay down).
Monday:? (my tip - openes waaaaaaay doooown, stays waaaaay doooown).

I reckon the turn might only come when the long term trend lines for the ASX (and DOW) are significantly breached lower- ASX to go below 5000. 

But that's mere conjecture on my behalf, of course! 


Hang tough, people....


AJ


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## Nyden (18 January 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Dont take up crystal ball gazing for a living, shares! The reality -
> 
> Wednesday: opened down, stayed down.
> Thursday: opened way down, stayed way down.
> ...






Hang tough, eh? : If things don't pick up next week I'm joining the other lemmings! 

A lemming with money is better than a hero with nothing


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## Aussiejeff (18 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Sigh. Why even label it as a prediction :
> Let's just call it a fact! It'll be slaughtered today, slaughtered on Monday, slaughtered every day until the US get their nerve back adequately enough to set a couple of good examples. The ASX apparently needs a few solid gains from the US before we start buying.
> 
> I really don't blame people for our lack of rally, who would be buying? Why buy on a rally when it's almost *assured* the US will take a dive tomorrow, or the next day, and we'll most likely follow.
> ...




No worries, Nyden! *SuperBernankeMan* says that the US _"probably won't go into a recession this year"_. Gee, and here I was thinking _"they are already IN a bleeding recession!"_ LOL.

We obviously worry too much. Good to see that he is in total charge of the situation, eh? We should be buying up stocks big time on his super-optimistic forecast...

Well, sorry SBM, not THIS little black duck....


Chiz?

AJ


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## wildmanchris (18 January 2008)

Prediction I can imagine is quite an easy one today - it will tank.  But not just any tank, this tank.......


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## korrupt_1 (18 January 2008)

LOL.. nice tank... in times of doom and gloom, it's always good to have a bit of humour... else one could go insane thinking about the losses!!!

Last price on SYCOM was around 5630's (thats about 160 odd points down). My prediction is that it will open at around 5600 and fall roughly 80 points in the first 20 minutes of trading, then it will quickly punch back up to maybe high 5500's for the remainder of the day.

Massive sell offs are key to bottoming signals right?

Has the XJO/XAO ever closed less than 200 points down on a single trading day?


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## mfp (18 January 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> LOL.. nice tank... in times of doom and gloom, it's always good to have a bit of humour... else one could go insane thinking about the losses!!!
> 
> Last price on SYCOM was around 5630's (thats about 160 odd points down). My prediction is that it will open at around 5600 and fall roughly 80 points in the first 20 minutes of trading, then it will quickly punch back up to maybe high 5500's for the remainder of the day.
> 
> ...




I think you mean MORE than 200 points...and yes it has during the August rout, today might be another one. I'm completely out of the market as of Monday and loving this. By the way, we should almost definitely close below the Mar and Aug closing lows so any hope of a meaningful bounce should be quickly sold into. 5000 not far away now.


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## wildmanchris (18 January 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> Massive sell offs are key to bottoming signals right?
> QUOTE]
> 
> We must be getting close to a bottom now - key is just picking it.  What were we before yesterday, 15% down from the highs late last year?


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## mfp (18 January 2008)

wildmanchris said:


> korrupt_1 said:
> 
> 
> > Massive sell offs are key to bottoming signals right?
> ...


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## wayneL (18 January 2008)

SPI is 5619 five minutes before open


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## korrupt_1 (18 January 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> Last price on SYCOM was around 5630's (thats about 160 odd points down). My prediction is that it will open at around 5600 and fall roughly 80 points in the first 20 minutes of trading, then it will quickly punch back up to maybe high 5500's for the remainder of the day.




I'm going to eat my shorts... this is just crazyness... where was the panic selling? 170 pt smashing on the open and it's been an orderly fade up day??!!!

Are the fund managers finally seeing value and starting to buy??? could this be true?? Could this be the recovery we need?


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## M34N (19 January 2008)

My prediction for those that bought into the banks on Friday... :


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## Bill M (19 January 2008)

M34N said:


> My prediction for those that bought into the banks on Friday... :




Maybe temporarily and maybe not. The key question is how much will they be worth in 5 years time?


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## LRG (19 January 2008)

All ords will go to 5150 on my prediction within the next 2 weeks; then climb in a saw tooth ending at 6050 at end of 2008.


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## Nyden (19 January 2008)

LRG said:


> All ords will go to 5150 on my prediction within the next 2 weeks; then climb in a saw tooth ending at 6050 at end of 2008.




LRG, if you're going to be posting specific targets, you need to have some sort of reasoning / explanation for it. From this post it looks as if you are just spurting out random numbers, & random dates; which isn't really valuable contribution. :


(Then again, many indicators aren't too accurate these days; a lack of explanation is probably just as good as one! Obviously being sarcastic here, though )


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## lioness (19 January 2008)

LRG said:


> All ords will go to 5150 on my prediction within the next 2 weeks; then climb in a saw tooth ending at 6050 at end of 2008.




How do the moderators on here allow such a poor post to exist, with no explanation or detail to back up a stupid statement like this.

This forum has gone downhill


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## surfingman (19 January 2008)

lioness said:


> How do the moderators on here allow such a poor post to exist, with no explanation or detail to back up a stupid statement like this.
> 
> This forum has gone downhill




I think your being a little harsh on the mod's it's the weekend after all. Got any reasons why XAO won't hit 5150? Your post is just as good as the one your are criticizing (sarcastic).


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## ithatheekret (21 January 2008)

I entered ANZ and NAB on the 11th sold on the 18th , although they were'nt anything big in the way of buys they still made a profit . I've actually been entering and exiting a few stocks at predetermined levels . IPL being one of them although there is a holding of IPL and a few others that are ancient portfolio blocks . 

I have three stocks this market can't even get close to losing money for me , but I've been patient with these for years and they have grown . 

Malcolm Broomhead ....... anyone remember him ? 

He's made my family a nice chunk of cash and a bloomin' good holding too , I followed the man into ORI as well , that too was a winner . It doesn't stop me from selling and buying portions of the holdings though . I don't love the stocks , I love the earnings they have given me though , the makeup is in the management though , it's what makes the stock comfortable enough to hold in the first place .

FFT is what it takes , something Allco had best take note of after today , I can read all the stocks book I hold , if I can't , I don't go near it , let someone else play optimist . If a share is moving and it's unexplainable , I tend to err on the side of caution .


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## wideboythin (27 January 2008)

Another bump in the states on Friday. Whats the prediction for tomorrow? Its all been good last week but are we gonna see another turn down tomorrow? Whats the feeling out there?


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## Whiskers (27 January 2008)

wideboythin said:


> Whats the prediction for tomorrow?






I'll bet the ASX doesn't open tomorrow.


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## cordelia (27 January 2008)

Tomorrow's a holiday.


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## Birdster (28 January 2008)

Whiskers said:


> I'll bet the ASX doesn't open tomorrow.




Safe bet whiskers!

Will be looking at the world markets closely for any sudden turn. An "up" day tommorrow, globally, should entice a green day for the ASX on Tuesday (and the the opposite of course for a down trend)

My prediction if you call it that


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## insider (28 January 2008)

Birdster said:


> Safe bet whiskers!
> 
> Will be looking at the world markets closely for any sudden turn. An "up" day tommorrow, globally, should entice a green day for the ASX on Tuesday (and the the opposite of course for a down trend)
> 
> My prediction if you call it that




I think it might be some time for red... They've rebounded quite strongly and its probably time for a speeding ticket... Why does it feel like roulette... red or black?


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## Kimosabi (28 January 2008)

Birdster said:


> Safe bet whiskers!
> 
> Will be looking at the world markets closely for any sudden turn. An "up" day tommorrow, globally, should entice a green day for the ASX on Tuesday (and the the opposite of course for a down trend)
> 
> My prediction if you call it that




I think there is going to be more Red than Green next week.

I just saw a report that US commercial property is crashing and Bond Insurers are looking at $1 Trillion worth of losses.  The purge will continue IMO...


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## So_Cynical (28 January 2008)

World markets will be down Monday and we will follow Tuesday.

Perhaps...just perhaps the last great buying opportunity.


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## overule (28 January 2008)

I see more red on Tuesday but mining sector will be green esp. BHP.


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## laurie (28 January 2008)

*A*merican 
*S*tock
*X*change

may as well combine the two together 

cheers laurie


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## ithatheekret (28 January 2008)

I hoping MON goes up in the US , picked up some just above $96 , sold half at 114.20's , dropped back towards 109ish when I last saw it , before I had nanny nap at my desk . Closed @ 108.13 .

Fingers crossed the market starts picking it up again , because the remainder is meant to be hold . It's really hard when you pay in the $100 regions for stocks sometimes , and I hate pushing the margin into overload . But it certainly limits my allocation on these type of stocks . If I missed the zone I would double down , but then I would have to put the profits back in , that goes against my system , always bring some back home to rest .

If it slightly dipped I would be tempted , but only sentiment can control that and at $100 a share that sentiment is spread across a lot of players seeing the $100 firstly as instant liquidity or like me the dip towards and just below , great value .

By the way , this is not investment advice ........  yada yada yada


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## Buffettology (28 January 2008)

^ You are investing in the US at the moment?  Man, big ballz!  Not only is their market in worse shape than there, but their dollar aint looking too good either!


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## M34N (28 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> World markets will be down Monday and we will follow Tuesday.
> 
> Perhaps...just perhaps the last great buying opportunity.



Buying or selling opportunity? :

As far as I see it, we had a 5% gain on Friday, on the back of US futures showing a +1% gain, but the Dow ended down 1.5%.

One would think, all things being equal, the US would need to rise at least 1.5% to make up for Friday's sell-off for us to get close to green on Tuesday, and US futures now showing -136 points (around -1.2%).

If things stay the same, we should by all rights see a 2.5% drop at least on Tuesday, especially given the poor performance of Asian stocks today.

It's going to take a very good performance on Wall St tonight to give us hope. FOMC meeting coming up, market will probably be negative in lead-up to this, and if helicopter Ben doesn't drop rates again, I can picture bloodshed ... maybe he should just drop rates to 0% now, stimulate the economy and that way we don't have to have any more FOMC meetings lol :


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## vishalt (28 January 2008)

Pointing 3% down at the moment, brace yourselves!


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## Bushman (28 January 2008)

vishalt said:


> Pointing 3% down at the moment, brace yourselves!




Can you believe this market? Talk about manic depression...

Massive slump due to fears of a recession, massive rally due to Fed cut alleviating extent of recession, massive slump due to .... er lack of postive stimuli from the Fed. Roller coaster.


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## overule (28 January 2008)

I think this week will be another roller coaster ride. Down the first few days then rally back up when US cuts interest rate.


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## Nyden (28 January 2008)

overule said:


> I think this week will be another roller coaster ride. Down the first few days then rally back up when US cuts interest rate.




See? You're already factoring in this cut. *What if* it doesn't come? What's the sound of a brick falling off a cliff? :


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## Bushman (28 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> What's the sound of a brick falling off a cliff? :




Is it 'woosh', 'kerplunk'? If it falls on a cat, we might get another dead cat bounce.


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## Nyden (28 January 2008)

Bushman said:


> Is it 'woosh', 'kerplunk'? If it falls on a cat, we might get another dead cat bounce.




No, the brick will finish off the cat! 
We've already had the bounce, it's time for the cat to finally reveal its death, so we can officially call the bottom, & get on with it.


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## nioka (28 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> No, the brick will finish off the cat!
> We've already had the bounce, it's time for the cat to finally reveal its death, so we can officially call the bottom, & get on with it.



 How many of the 9 lives of the cat have we used to date?


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## So_Cynical (28 January 2008)

Lots of people doin ok with the bouncing dead cats.

buy buy buy.


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## Nyden (28 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Lots of people doin ok with the bouncing dead cats.
> 
> buy buy buy.




OK, that just seems to be a little bit rampish.

Buy, Buy, Buy? Alright, you think the markets will continue going up ... but it's irresponsible for you to be suggesting to the masses to buy. 

If you can say that, then here's my spin on your post;



> Lots of people doin bad with the dead cats.
> 
> sell sell sell.




: Neither which is allowed, & is in jest!


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## tronic72 (29 January 2008)

Buffettology said:


> ^ You are investing in the US at the moment?  Man, big ballz!  Not only is their market in worse shape than there, but their dollar aint looking too good either!




Isn't that THE time to be investing in the US Market? 

Our Market is still in a very good shape but the honeymoon is almost certainly over. The fact that it will take the US a few years to recover means there are some really good bargains to be had. Just look at Apple & Intel. 

I've started looking to the US for Property and Stocks. The more negative sentiments I hear about the US Market, the more keen I am to invest into it. Our market on the other hand, has reached it's highs and although it should get back most, if not all of the recent losses, it doesn't have much to offer than a lot of big expensive, holes in the ground.


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## Buffettology (29 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> Isn't that THE time to be investing in the US Market?




Depends how long you think this will go for?  If their $ keeps falling and you want your money out, you will loose any capital gain you make off your investments there.  Perhaps you should hedge your bets.

Not to mention, hate to sound cliche, but its only a matter of time until the "**** hits the fan" over in the US.  In a time of inflation and slow growth, drastically cutting rates is something that could see staglation (one of the absolute worse case scenarios for economists) if consumer confidence and sentiment remain down.  What will happen to the stockmarket then?  How do you stimulate growth without pushing up inflation even more and hence providing "free money" to borrowers?    

We also have to see if this banking crisis has been limited to the banking sector (which it probably has in Australia), but with the losses in the US, it HAS to have had to spill over to retail trade.  Do you know how much their economy relies on the retail sector?  Once these statistics come out, probably over the course of the next year, we will have some big big problems.  I think prices may well get a LOT lower in the US still.  Of course this will spill over to the rest of the world, but I doubt it will force them into recession as it has done the US.  Australia is probably one of the safest markets in this current environment, but that wont stop us from seeing a hit also.


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## nioka (29 January 2008)

It looks as though the market will rise on opening today. All my buy orders left over from Friday are a lot further down the list now than they were at the close on Friday.That is usually a sign. Because I'm trying to buy I am hoping for a reverse during the day but I don't expect it to happen to any extent.
Actually this is a day late. Should have put it in yesterday because it is for today.


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## wideboythin (29 January 2008)

This thread is turning out to be a real education. I am new to the market, a year or so experience and am learning a heap of this thread. I started it for that reason and its proving to be a little gold mine. Thanks to all the contributors and lets try to keep this one alive, I am sure I am not the only one who is learning here.


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## kingie_d (31 January 2008)

XAO formed a white hammer today. Could be an up day for the end of the week?...  Couple of other recent hammers preceeded upmoves


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## Nyden (31 January 2008)

Red dye I foresee in the sky tonigh(t), says I :

Time to say goodbye, time for the high to die?

Sorry, that was awful. But, it's been a while since I've expressed my terrible humor!


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## YELNATS (31 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Red dye I foresee in the sky tonigh(t), says I :
> 
> Time to say goodbye, time for the high to die?
> 
> Sorry, that was awful. But, it's been a while since I've expressed my terrible humor!




Nyden, I always enjoy your humour and optimistic outpourings, terrible or otherwise. Keep them going!


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## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

I think with this rate cut, it will move up with some kind of optimism.  Then the doubt will start to creep back in, and we may see a DRAMATIC fall!  Afterall, the Fed doesnt meet until March and the RBA may rase rates at home!  All of which could fuel and encourage another long string of down days!  

Glad to say, I want a crash now, I finally got most of my $$$ back out of the market.


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## tronic72 (31 January 2008)

Buffettology said:


> I think with this rate cut, it will move up with some kind of optimism.  Then the doubt will start to creep back in, and we may see a DRAMATIC fall!  Afterall, the Fed doesnt meet until March and the RBA may rase rates at home!  All of which could fuel and encourage another long string of down days!
> 
> Glad to say, I want a crash now, I finally got most of my $$$ back out of the market.




Think that's wishful thinking because you have "Cash to Splash". I think we've nearly seen all the carnage surface from the Sub-Prim issue and the market has already factored it into current prices. 

Remember we are currently lower than at any time last year! (pretty close).

It will be really interesting to see what sort of results the financial companies such as the banks, AFG, MQG & BNB produce. If they produce positive figures we could easily see a lot of the doom and gloom disappear.

After the recent crash I'm much more positive than I was at the end of last year. 

My reasons are as follows:
1. Recent report says Chinas growth will make up for any shortfall in the US 
2. We've finally had rain. Wheat and other soft commodities are going through the roof because the north is using all their corn, wheat etc for Biofuel.
3. the XAO is sitting very very low close to this time last year which leaves more possibility for upside.
4. Australia's exposure to sub-prime risk has been said to be very small (company reports will prove or disprove this soon).
5. Most analysts say a US recession will be "mild" and "short in duration, between 6 & 12 months".
6. Australia is ticking along quite well, thanks very much and with our high dollar we are making even more money from the items we sell.


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## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

Tronic,

The US just released very poor economic growth figures.  With the lags, the next quarters are sure to be worse.  Inflation looks set to spike as it has done here and staglfation would be a HUGE problem for them.  

I hear from the inside that the banks are doing worse than expected (maybe my source is wrong, but he lives amongst the elite in Sydney and says the problem is worse than expected), guess we will see, he has been known to tell a tall tale once in a while.  But no doubt he is connected with most of Sydneys top bankers and traders.  

Australia is ticking along quiet well, but inflation is WELL out of the target rate of 2-3%, which almost certainly, according to past trends, means the RBA will raise rates.  How much impact will this have on a market in the middle of a turn to negative sentiment?  Im not sure, but it all points to at least a quick, sharp, correction.  

As far as wishful thinking, I only got the majority of my cash out in the last two days, I could have wishfully thought the market would bounce back to previous highs and kept it in there if thats what I beleived 

But there are also definately reasons for some stable growth, its just in that balancing act now, where nobody knows what to expect, hence why I am out.


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## Random Walk (31 January 2008)

I think tomorrow the XAO will be sold off heavily in the morning and close a little in the red, continuing the pattern we've seen over the past few days, swinging around as the bulls / bears fight it out…

However, in the medium term, I feel the general direction is down; we’re waiting for some negative news and an excuse to bail.

Looking for opportunities to exit my few remaining long positions (but have trouble letting go; they're too special).


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## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> My reasons are as follows:
> 1. Recent report says Chinas growth will make up for any shortfall in the US




What report says this?

China has a LONG way to grow before it becomes the size of the US economy.

NO way can Chinas growth in the shorr term make up for any shortfall in the US.

Also, there is now talk that Japan is back in recession, if this is true, it cannot be a good thing since we do a lot of trade with Japan.  

Just too risky business for me at the moment.  I will sit this one out for a while.

Has the market already factored in a US recession, or if these figures ARE actually released and sentiment already poor, could a quick panic occur before the big funds come in and buy up on the cheap?


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## overule (3 February 2008)

BHP going to shine tomorrow but i am not that positive about banks.

What do you guys think ?


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## kpas (3 February 2008)

Buffettology said:


> Tronic,
> 
> The US just released very poor economic growth figures.  With the lags, the next quarters are sure to be worse.  Inflation looks set to spike as it has done here and staglfation would be a HUGE problem for them.
> 
> ...




I too think we have yet to see the worse drop in XAO - the US Fed can only drop their interest rates so far before they are at nothing.

They are already at 3%, honestly how much further can they drop it?

I can understand why australians in particular get frustrated at the market in it's current condition, but if you take into account just how bad the US economy is - I think we will be in for another significant drop.

I am confident that the Australian economy is strong enough that we'll weather it out eventually, just I think we'll drop significantly in the meantime before it settles down.


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## nioka (3 February 2008)

kpas said:


> They are already at 3%, honestly how much further can they drop it?.



 Easy answer. 3%. I'm not being facetious, Japan was at 0% for quite awhile wasn't it?. They didn't fold. Is that why they needed whale meat? ( now I am being facetious). That would be .25% a month for the next year. Now that would throw the cat amoung the pigeons.


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## Buster (3 February 2008)

G'day KPAS,



kpas said:


> I too think we have yet to see the worse drop in XAO - the US Fed can only drop their interest rates so far before they are at nothing.




Personally, I think we saw a huge over reaction, caused by the 'French Bank' unwinding their positions coupled with the uncertainty about the US economy that was already hanging low in the minds of traders/investors etc.. add to that some big (Global Fundies..) players shorting for market manipulation that squeezed the (astounding number of) more leveraged 'Margin' traders/investors out..  The result equalled panic selling into a freefall market

Yes there will be some volatility over the next few weeks, but I think once the company reports start rolling out all will be appeased..  Have yet to see any nasty news from US companies (besides the bad loan writedowns of banks, they still seem to be posting profits however..) Most companies so far are meeting or are just slightly less than expectations.. 

Yes, there is the issue of the insurers that is the 'doom and gloom' flavour of the week, however I think that the Banks have a vested interest in seeing that they remain solvent also..



kpas said:


> They are already at 3%, honestly how much further can they drop it?




I'm tipping they'll end up at 2% - 2.5%.. a couple of days ago I'd have said definitely 2%, but the FED may take heart in the market gyrations of the past week..

I think Tomorrow will be a good day for our market.. after that, anyones guess.. 

Having said that, that's purely speculation on my part, my .. I'm simply a mug.. have no real experience to speak of.. unless losing cash in the '87 crash counts.. 

Regards,

Buster


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## Buffettology (3 February 2008)

Wait for the US inflation figures over the coming year.  

Thats when we will see just how bad problem they are in!


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## Uncle Festivus (3 February 2008)

tronic72 said:


> 1. Recent report says Chinas growth will make up for any shortfall in the US




Sorry Tronic, new data not positive in the short term - 

The January Procurement Manager Index (PMI) published on Feb. 2 by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) stands at 53.0 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than previous month. And among all sub-indices, the one for export orders for the first time over the past three years decreased. 



tronic72 said:


> 5. Most analysts say a US recession will be "mild" and "short in duration, between 6 & 12 months"..




Are these the same analysts who said sub prime was 'contained'?



tronic72 said:


> 6. Australia is ticking along quite well, thanks very much and with our high dollar we are making even more money from the items we sell.




Other way around I think - exporters getting hammered the higher it goes?

Yes, up day tomorrow most likely, another oportunity to lighten the portfolio.


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## Buffettology (4 February 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Other way around I think - exporters getting hammered the higher it goes?
> 
> Yes, up day tomorrow most likely, another oportunity to lighten the portfolio.




I agree, exporters getting hammered, but it will help curb imported inflation.

I have just lightened another 10% of my portfolio.  Holding a WAD of cash now!

Uncle, you have been very bearish for a long long time now, does this mean you are just sitting on the sidelines, or are you trading derivatives and shorting stocks?


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## Uncle Festivus (4 February 2008)

Buffettology said:


> I agree, exporters getting hammered, but it will help curb imported inflation.
> 
> I have just lightened another 10% of my portfolio.  Holding a WAD of cash now!
> 
> Uncle, you have been very bearish for a long long time now, does this mean you are just sitting on the sidelines, or are you trading derivatives and shorting stocks?




Hello Buff,

In my view the secular trend has turned over to negative, with the ticker action like today showing how fickle it is.  XJO got to 6022 then we got the now customary sell into the strength fade. The market is shot, but it is great swing trading, I have been long a quit a few times (CBA great day trade, look at the range!! 5250 to 4950!!) after the 'route'. But, sitting in 20% cash, the rest in local gold stocks. Working so far, the portfolio is sitting on 18% return for Jan so far . Ex div season coming up so selective day trading now. 7% cash is looking good these days while we ponder the irrationality?


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## kash (4 February 2008)

Market thinking about the rate rise. I would say it will open down tomorrow until the rate decision than will come back after that.


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## Buffettology (4 February 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hello Buff,
> 
> In my view the secular trend has turned over to negative, with the ticker action like today showing how fickle it is.  XJO got to 6022 then we got the now customary sell into the strength fade. The market is shot, but it is great swing trading, I have been long a quit a few times (CBA great day trade, look at the range!! 5250 to 4950!!) after the 'route'. But, sitting in 20% cash, the rest in local gold stocks. Working so far, the portfolio is sitting on 18% return for Jan so far . Ex div season coming up so selective day trading now. 7% cash is looking good these days while we ponder the irrationality?




Yeh, 7% cash is definaetly looking good to me at the moment!  

For me, the volatility has seen my strategies go out the window!  My entire philosophy is long-term value, but I find myself trading on a weekly, sometimes daily basis!  

Gold stocks, yeh, I was going to get in some a while back, but decided I would keep it in cash (not a good idea by the looks of your 18% Jan return)!

Out of interest, what gold stocks are you currently in and do you think there is much room for growth in them still?


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