# EXS - Exco Resources



## JustaReader (8 July 2006)

EXS has ground next to AUM and has seen its sp rise. Any of you in this forum hold this piece of stock?

I have bought into it. Thought it was worth a punt.

Cheers


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## stiger (8 July 2006)

Justa, I am curious as to exactly where next door means. Is it sharing a common boundary or not. your reply would be appreciated.


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## JustaReader (9 July 2006)

Stiger,

Refer the link below, its straight from Exco's website on their operations at Colncurry:

http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/CloncurryCopperProject.pdf

On the mid left of the first map there is an inverted "L" shape piece of tenament that belongs to Exco, AUM's site is just North East of this tenament. I don't have confirmation as to whether Exco has started mining yet at this part, should have confirmation on Monday, will post again then.

The things to note are that Exco's tenaments are significantly larger than that of AUM's. Sure, all of this is still a lot of dirt till proven. However, I have also considered Exco on a stand alone basis. My chief considerations have been:

Its operations at Cloncurry are closest to Ernest Henry Mine (EHM) owned by Xstrata, which has a life of another 6 years. EXS has openly stated that they are in discussions with Xsrata (please see opening para on the link above). If you read the broker report in EXS' web site:

http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/StrachanCorpEXSJan05.pdf

it estimates EXS' Mt. Margret's resources (this is next door to EHM) alone is worth 40 to 70 cts per share. Hence, I expect an offer by Xstrata for this operation. At the worst at least a JV. I think it's a worthwile punt. 

Its major shareholder Lion Selection Group (LSG), holding 14.4% with representation in the board (http://www.lionselection.com.au/exco.shtml) has in the past bought a company called IAMGOLD and sold-off when it was taken over. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...sg&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=6

select announcement No. 2 dt. 22/06/2006

LSG's presence also adds credibility to the Xstrata deal possibility.

The managment of EXS also seem like a decent bunch. 

Unlike URL, EXS' shares are far more closely held and hence it has been able to hold its sp. 

Based on the above, I have made bets of this company. 

Like always, please do your own research before you invest your hard earned money. 

Best of luck and if you need any help please post here and I'll try and get back to you.

JaR


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## stiger (9 July 2006)

JaR Thanks for the info . Iwould think they could throw rocks at one another.I also have an interest in EXS.Cheers


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## JustaReader (9 July 2006)

Stiger,

I got in last week. IMO charts point upward, hoping it would retrace a bit so I could load-up some more  The volumes have been rather large for a tightly held company. The coming week would tell a story, if someone wanted to takeover this baby, it would pay to move fast.

Would apprecaite any other info if you have on this one.

This could easily be the next AUM, if not better    (can but hope I suppose)

JaR


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## stiger (9 July 2006)

It will be a very interesting first 2hrs of trading tomorrow. I wait with bated breath.Cheers :


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## JustaReader (9 July 2006)

*EXS - Exco Resources (next ground to AUM)*

Stiger,

Should be a fun day tomorrow. Live to tell the tale or get burnt    But EXS is by far a better bet. I remain confident we will do well tomorrow.

One other thing, do have a look at the stock/option (EXS/EXSO) volumes for the last 3 months. I think there is a story. Remember, EXS got a speeding ticket in early April.

I'd be very interested to know if directors have bought any shares/options last week. Will have to watch the announcements and if they have.... well then its time to buy some more for me I suppose.

Best of luck stiger.

JaR


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## mlennox (10 July 2006)

not much happening today.. really need to see a bounce of 30 cents for continued confidence


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## JustaReader (10 July 2006)

very dull day today. Everyone is waiting for the AUM ann, which is understandable. My research indicates this is headed north.

One other thing, today there was an ann re. director selling 4M shares. This i hear is to cover underwritten options expiring on 28/08/06.

Watching this one very closely.

JaR


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## stiger (10 July 2006)

Thought you would like this Jar, one HC contributer suggested that EXCO should erect signs on their lease before Wed so that  after the AGM  the AUM shareholders would see them . Cheers.


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## stiger (11 July 2006)

Ann out Cloncurry report {close to Cloncurry} Subtle as a brick.


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## JustaReader (11 July 2006)

EXS is sure sitting on copper rich country. Just a matter of time. Will hold this for at least 3 years. Shuld come good.

Yes, I did get a call from a friend of mine to checkout HC and the happenings there. Can expect some action today. I'll look to pick-up some oppies today (although I maybe late by one day!).

Best of luck stiger, lets see how the market digests the news!

JaR


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## JustaReader (11 July 2006)

The market has picked EXS over URL. Last day/hours before AUM ann comes out. I'm loading-up.

JaR


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## saichuen (11 July 2006)

JustaReader said:
			
		

> The market has picked EXS over URL. Last day/hours before AUM ann comes out. I'm loading-up.
> JaR




good luck! EXS or URL, both to me is still a punt!


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## JustaReader (11 July 2006)

saichuen,

For sure, I also have a small bet on URL just in case  But as you say both are equally good in their own right.


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## stiger (11 July 2006)

Irrespective what happens tomorrow in regard to our near neighbour EXCO is a great investment in the medium term .So hold on tight could be a rough couple of days but it will be worth it. CHEERS


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## JustaReader (11 July 2006)

Stiger,

i have a substantial amount of money (relative to me of course) invested in EXCO. My intention is to hold for at least 3 years. Lets see what the gods have in plan for us.

This is a good company with proven reserves and great potential. I am happy with my punt.

G'nite

JaR


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## greggy (12 July 2006)

JustaReader said:
			
		

> saichuen,
> 
> For sure, I also have a small bet on URL just in case  But as you say both are equally good in their own right.



Both stocks have been mentioned as buys in the Criterion on page 25 of todays The Australian.


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## stiger (12 July 2006)

I have a good feeling about tomorrow, the news on aum is ok, remember "Little fish are sweet"


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## stiger (13 July 2006)

Just read page 16 of AUM Thread apparently EXCO have their own spies.Fantastic they now know where to drill .I am excited by this latest piece of news.


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## feeding_the_fire (18 July 2006)

EXS seems to have dipped a little in recent days. What do people think? Is the negative sentiment around AUM driving it down, or is it merely market fluctuations?

Are people still feeling generally positive about this one?


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## cuttlefish (18 July 2006)

EXS rose sharply the other week on the same day that AUM spiked and was suspended, because it has an exploration lease a few km's SE of AUM's rocklands, and it is now falling back as the hype surrounding AUM is fading.  

only my    do your own research blah blah etc. etc.


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## stiger (20 July 2006)

feeding_the_fire said:
			
		

> EXS seems to have dipped a little in recent days. What do people think? Is the negative sentiment around AUM driving it down, or is it merely market fluctuations?
> 
> Are people still feeling generally positive about this one?



Absolutely but the one question that has`nt been asked , why was an exco geoligist spying on cudeco`s property if they weren`t close by the epm?


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## JustaReader (19 August 2006)

*Re: EXS - Finding tenement details*

Just a few thoughts. Looking at EXS' chart, it appears to be on a trend heading south. In the past, 22 - 23 cts have proved good support levels. I am hoping for a bounce in the coming week. This is because, after 25/8 everyone would have got their share of oppies and thereafter the company could start rolling out E1 East results. Also you need to consider, the close proximity to CDU's land, EXS could have already commenced drilling at this site. So, come September, who knows here the sp will be.

For those of you who would like find out proximity of EXS' tenement to CDU, use the following:

Step-by-step guide to finding tenement details:

Go to the following web site => http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/

Select “Interactive Resource and Tenure Maps” you will find this on the right side of the page.

Select “Connect to the interactive resource and tenure maps (IRTMs) ” It will launch two other windows. Wait for the map to load. 

When the map opens-up, on the left side there are a series options. Please expand “Exploration and Mining Tenors” menu. Under this please check the following boxes:
- Mineral Development Licenses
- Mining Leases
- Current Expl. Permits Mineral (EPM). You have got to make sure both the box and the circle are selected for EPM, this is crucial!

On top of the Map page you will have a series of buttons. Click on the Magnifying Glass with a “+” and click insider the map to start expanding it. You will see “Cloncurry”, keep expanding the map until you can see individually marked tenements. 

Now to find out who owns these blocked out tenements:

Select the fourth icon from the printer icon from the series of buttons on top of the page. The icon is a dotted square with an arrow.

Now move the mouse over any of the tenement and simply click inside it. And “Voila” a new window will open containing the name of the company, lease expiry dates etc. Moreover, if you now check back on the map, the company’s other tenements are also shaded in light yellow.

Once you find who owns what, use the measure button (second from the dotted square to the left) to find out distances between tenements.


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## herbaltech (14 September 2006)

This thread seems to have teminated abruptly. With the recent copper price drop, has everyone cut loss and sold their EXS ?


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## booga82 (14 September 2006)

they recently issued options to the executives, which i think were just out of the money. perhaps some good news is on the horizon???
im looking to get in around 20-22.


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## stiger (15 September 2006)

herbaltech said:
			
		

> This thread seems to have teminated abruptly. With the recent copper price drop, has everyone cut loss and sold their EXS ?



Definitely not just waiting patiently for bite from Extrata.Dyor.Cheers.


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## JustaReader (2 October 2006)

This stock tracks the movement of CDU. Last week was good for EXS, with CDU all set to announce results this month, would expect people to start taking positions on EXS. 

No sign of any predators/bid yet. 

Would long term holders be willing to sell this @ 45 cts/share?

I remain bullish both short/long term with this one.

DYOR

JAR


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## herbaltech (19 October 2006)

It has gone up to 0.28 today, hopefully there will be some more good news and the trend will continue.


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## booga82 (19 October 2006)

any idea when this ann. is coming out???

I thought it was going to be a "few weeks"...four weeks ago.


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## stiger (19 October 2006)

booga82 said:
			
		

> any idea when this ann. is coming out???
> 
> I thought it was going to be a "few weeks"...four weeks ago.



Possibly soon. Because exs has so many strings its hard to pick which one it will be about though.


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## booga82 (19 October 2006)

I was referring to this ann. uploaded on the 18th September regarding E1 East results.

"The current program, commencing with EMMD013 (see Figure 2), will test the geometry and true thickness to allow calculation of a JORC inferred resource within the next few weeks."


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## JustaReader (28 November 2006)

Did anyone attend the agm.... how did it all go and what was the sentiment like?


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## 56gsa (13 April 2007)

No discussion on this since the ann re proposed U spin-off - Latest open briefing suggests this is come time off ... any thoughts?


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## Halba (13 April 2007)

Am still in 2k position$, hoping for uranium float.


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## alphman (8 May 2007)

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070508/pdf/00719040.pdf

"The trading halt is being requested because the Company is currently in discussions, which may lead to an announcement."


Does anyone out there have any info?


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## 56gsa (18 July 2007)

Mkt Cap $90m (217m shares + 32m options)
Cash $17m

Ivanhoe (TSX and NYSE listed) recently bought in - LST also a major shareholders
344kT Cu, and 0.349 mOz Au with exploration upside in Cloncurry region (near to Ivanhoe's tennements)
Also released a U resource estimate (non-JORC) of 7.6m lbs - will commence drilling and test recoverability from QLD Cu-Au deposits (the spin-off idea seems to have gone off the agenda although they do have a tennement next to HAVs radium hill in SA they don't mention )
Cashed up, international partner, good prospects in prospective area... anyone else looking at this - (not holding )

2-yr Weekly chart looks interesting...  35 resistance now looks like support


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## 56gsa (19 July 2007)

This is old news but indicates the potential that Ivanhoe see..  IVN-T (on the TSX) was about C$13.50 when this was released and now is above C$16... think i'm convincing myself to buy into EXS...



> Exploration Joint Venture Significantly Expands Ivanhoe's Presence in Australia's Cloncurry Copper, Uranium and Gold Mineral Belt
> 20:19 EDT Wednesday, May 09, 2007
> 
> Ivanhoe Australia Enters into Investment Agreement with Exco Resources
> ...


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## 56gsa (20 July 2007)

So i liked this from a technical and fundamental view already - and bought in - but this ann today gives it a touch of 'spekkie' as well - i like the mysterious 'difficult to access, never been explored before' line, not sure why that is as it looks pretty close to a major road on the map - aboriginal approvals?

anyone else watching this?

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070720/pdf/00740635.pdf



> CANTEEN URANIUM PROSPECT
> • Initial reconnaissance at the Canteen U3O8 prospect has identified highly anomalous
> uranium and copper from rock chip samples
> • Samples collected to test large (>2km strike length) coincident uranium radiometrics and
> ...


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## 56gsa (23 July 2007)

Still solid depth on the buy side altho U ann on Friday didn't translate to interest today... maybe due to general market blues?  EXS was in Criterion on Friday, wonder if the Ivanhoe Aust listing on the ASX will give EXS shareholders a piece of the action? ...  have copied the whole article which also covers CMR and ERA...



> CRITERION
> Tim Blue | July 20, 2007
> *Compass Resources (CMR) $5.17*
> COMPASS Resources has learned the hard way that the comrades in the People's Republic of China are just as happy to take a profit along the road to socialist nirvana as anyone else.
> ...


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## 56gsa (3 August 2007)

EXS was originally intending to have White Dam gold project up and running by now - but latest quarterly suggests it still could be 2-3 months away  - which good be reason for recent fall above and beyond the broader market sentiment.  

However once operational they think this will produce $10m free cash flow per annum for 3 years.  With that, along with $12m cash in the bank, the Cu and U potential, their current market cap of about $75m is looking slim...  

long-term bottom trend line could be around 29-30 mark so this may provide support but would like to see more volume on buy side


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## 56gsa (9 August 2007)

caught up in general mood of market with a hint of disappointment at progress with White Dam perhaps...  wonder if this will stoke interst in EXS - or will EXS shareholders get priority?



> Kevin Andrusiak | August 08, 2007
> MACQUARIE Bank is believed to be putting the finishing touches to a $90 million float of Australian assets of Ivanhoe Mines.
> 
> Details on the deal are sketchy, but Ivanhoe indicated that something was in the wind by saying "it's a definite possibility" and "we are keeping all our options open". The Australian understands that the float will kick off on September 3.
> ...




30 cent level looks to be critical else could find support at 28 / 26?


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## mack44 (21 October 2007)

Closed at 38c on Friday - any update to your charting???  Putting aside the turbulent times the market will see over the October month, would be interested in an update to this thread on EXS.....


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## fonterra (15 February 2008)

Anyone still following this little mining junior here?

Recently there was an article on it on FNarena, which is very postive on its outlook, and today the closing sp ends at 0.27 which might indicate a breakout on Monday?  Well i am not a expert on charts but to me it looks that way.

what are some of ppls thoughts? 

Sry dont really know how to insert the chart here...:


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## 56gsa (16 February 2008)

yes - this getting some attention again - article from mineweb below..  



> Bullish broker study puts copper explorer in several plays
> A profitable offtake agreement, deals on other properties and being in the gunsights for a planned Robert Friedland base metals float are key aspects of a positive evaluation of copper-gold explorer Exco Resources.
> 
> Author: Ross Louthean
> ...




chart shows volume coming in and could test upper band of downward trend which is also a resistence level @ 28.5c - if it breaks through this could see it run onto the 32c level...


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## 56gsa (20 February 2008)

article above may have touched a nerve (or at least an investors hip pocket)up 12% today range 28.5-30.5 ... 

the proximity to Xstrata's Ernest Henry's operation is a big positive - smelter could have spare capacity by 2010 - say 2 years to get EXS's mine up and running means they've got to think about gettting things moving this year ??


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## 56gsa (7 May 2008)

things are happening at Exco - naturally enought cause I didn't have them in the competition this month!!

interesting that Ivanhoe exercised options - this is a big vote of confidence in the future of EXS given the pre-feas on Cloncurry is due in a couple of weeks - would suggests there's good news to come - hopefully Xstrata's watching



> The Company is pleased to confirm that its largest shareholder, Ivanhoe Australia Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of NYSE and TSX listed Ivanhoe Mines Ltd) has exercised their full option entitlement (21,120,000) raising A$7,392,000. As a result Exco currently has cash of approximately A$16 million and Ivanhoe Australia’s interest in the Company has risen to 19.6%.  Exco previously completed a capital raising in May 2007 with participants at the time receiving 4 options for every 5 shares issued. The options are exercisable at A$0.35 on or before 1 June 2008.


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## 56gsa (21 May 2008)

have posted this on eqn as well but thought worth highlighting the market is valuing EXS's Cu resource well at the bottom range - Xstrata is busy trying to takeover IRN at the moment so they can have 100% of Tampakan in the Philippines but they still need more feed for their EH plant and times running out....!!

or maybe they will sell EH off and focus on other Cu reserves?  Who would buy?

Market valuation of in-situ metal										
	PanAust	Cudeco	CopperCo	Zambezi	Anvil	Equinox	Matrix	EXCO	Discovery	Indophil
US$/lb Cu 	0.54	0.48	0.46	0.31	0.27	0.22	0.11	0.11	0.1	0.04
kt Cu (attrib.)	1500	440	360	68	1769	6278	276	403	352	4800


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## 56gsa (26 May 2008)

Continues to look a good prospect imo on three fronts:

*Undervalued mkt cap*
243m shares 
+25m unlisted options

Aiming to have 50mt ore resource identified in 2009 (currently 42mt) 
The goal is to process 2mtpa ore which would give:
20,000t  Cu  concentrate
14,000oz Au credits

Using current prices for Cu and Au, and assuming earnings is half of total revenue, EPS is 35 cps.  Optimistic perhaps, but even at half that (17cps) you would still expect to see EXS up around $1.70 (mkt cap of $454m)

As comparison TMR has mkt cap of $135m and is producing 6,000t Cu with far less gold credits and less resource (10mt ore, similar grade)

*Feasability progress:*
The company is moving from a pre-feas to bankable feasability study in the next month.  They will be evaluating finance options over the next few months - this typically makes the project news worthy and attracts attention.  Currently $16m in the bank and $4m of options expire 1 June (ex price 35c - right on the money)

*Takeover / tolling potential:*
EXS are saying they will aim to start construction of the 2mtpa plant mid-2009 - this does not make sense given the proximity to Xstrata's Ernest Henry which will have spare capacity in 2010.  Logical thing is for offtake agreement with Xstrata.  Another option is Ivanhoe (which has 19% of EXS) will take it over.  EXS has JVs with both Xstrata and Ivanhoe in the area...

All in all not sure how this will pan out but given EXS is one of the lowest valued Cu resources (as per numbers in previous message - cf CDU which has mkt cap over $400m with apparently similar Cu resource and further behind in development) and is making solid progress towards mining I can see this being re-rated in the second half of 2008.

Long term chart suggests pushing over 40 cents with volume could test high at 51 and then blue sky...


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## 56gsa (2 June 2008)

strong day from exco with good volume building - not many days in its past when EXS has been over 2m shares traded... 

price still hovering under 40 though and really needs to push above 42 imo to have a good run at the blue sky

for me, the fundamentals are lining up... and the timing is right for some action on this one way or the other... let's see how things transpire 

anyone else on EXS?


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## 56gsa (20 June 2008)

Extract from article for Ivanhoe float...  I'm sure I read somewhere in the past that EXS shareholders would get a slice of the float action but no mention of this in recent announcements as far as I can see... 



> Ivanhoe will be keeping 80% of Ivanhoe Australia (IA), implying a market value for IA on listing at the issue price of $2 a share of $625 million. IA has an inter-company loan with Ivanhoe of $74.7 million, of which $30 million will be satisfied with proceeds from the float. The remainder is earmarked for a typically aggressive exploration and development program.
> 
> IA's focus is on the Cloncurry region in Queensland, where the hunt is on for iron oxide, copper-gold deposits such as Ernest Henry (Xstrata) in the same region, and Olympic Dam (BHP Billiton) and Prominent Hill (Oxiana) in South Australia.
> 
> ...




http://business.theage.com.au/ivanhoe-takes-second-go-at-float-20080619-2tmd.html


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## g13b (7 September 2008)

anyone hear the lastest?
looks like it will be finally on the upward trend.

Does anyone have any opinions?


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## g13b (8 September 2008)

175% increase in indicated resources at the E1 camp, sounds good but what does it mean for us share holders?


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## g13b (11 September 2008)

found 55% more at the same camp as the last 175% increase.. this is good right?

Is anyone following??


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## quinn123 (3 August 2009)

Hi, I just thought I would share some information about EXCO for anyone who is unaware of this copper/gold play. 

The basic story as I see it:

Exco’s main assets:
•	White Dam Project
•	Cloncurry Copper Project
•	4,100km² Exploration Permits in north‐west Queensland

They are soon to be a small scale gold producer at “White Dam” which contains 10.12Mt grading 1.04g/t of gold.  This will produce ~A$41M in free cash‐flow for Exco to assist them in funding their main project; the “Cloncurry Copper Project” (CCP) which consists of the E1 Camp, Monakoff and Great Australia deposits just north-east of Cloncurry, Queensland.  These deposits contain a total of *51Mt @ 0.83% Cu & 0.23 g/t Au*.  The main deposit is at E1 Camp which contains an indicated and inferred resource of *44.8Mt @ 0.75% Cu & 0.21 g/t Au* (@ 0.3% Cu cut‐off).  Importantly *24.6Mt @ 0.83% Cu & 0.24 g/t Au* as indicated with the remainder as Inferred.  
The proximity of the mineable resources at CCP to the *Ernest Henry* Operation (8km to the east) presents opportunities for the potential treatment through that facility, as an alternative to the development of a standalone concentrator operation.  Discussions have already taken place with Xstrata but nothing has materialized thus far.  Basically Ernest Henry is running out of ore and they are thinking about going underground and will be greatly underutilizing their mill.  So EXCO’s E1 deposit could help in filling the production gap.  

Take this information with a grain of salt and do your own research.  IMO I think these guys are an interesting play with an improving copper price.  I would appreciate any feedback or discussions on EXCO.

Here are some articles/announcements from the EXCO site and HighGrade’s .  

3 Aug 2009 *EXS Information Memorandum *
http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/090803_InformationMemorandum_FINAL.pdf

29 June 2009 BGF Equities - Company Update - "*A deal with Xstrata on Cloncurry could make it a cash cow*"
http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/090629_BGFEquities.pdf

From *HighGrade’s “Uncut” today* – 31 July 2009

EXCO has strengthened its case for providing copper-gold ore to Xstrata’s declining Ernest Henry mine next door in the Cloncurry region of Queensland, and if one was a punter, what price something happening one way or the other before the year is out?
Exco added five million tonnes to the indicated resources at the E1 Camp that borders Ernest Henry, with E1 now containing 24.6Mt grading 0.83% copper and 0.24gpt gold, as well as a further 20.2Mt of inferred material.
Exco managing director Michael Anderson is currently travelling this week in China and Hong Kong (ahead of next week’s Diggers&Dealers in Kalgoorlie), and his only comment was that his travels were proving “very interesting”.
What can be said without speculating is that China has proved its interest does extend way beyond Tier 1 assets. It can also be seen that Exco’s Cloncurry project now contains more than 51Mt.
We’re also pretty sure that Xstrata is taking a very close look at the colourful Cloncurry copper caper CuDeco.
Meanwhile, Ernest Henry inexorably ticks down.


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## 56gsa (15 December 2009)

I heard that Xstrata are going underground at Ernest Henry - which may dampen the takeover premium on EXS?

Back at 22c levels which it has bounced off 5 times in the last 6 months...  so interesting to see if this holds?


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## financial chat (16 February 2010)

up 15% this morning - what is stirring the pot?

in the last 2 weeks the stock could not be given away at 18/19c, now look.

someone must know (or be expecting) something.


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## financial chat (18 February 2010)

I think this is what started to stir the pot a couple of days ago.

a further buy recommendation for Exco Resources in two European Market Letters: Austria Boersenbrief (no 1 in Austria - EXS see page 6) and in the Hanseatischer Boersendienst, Hamburg (in distribution for 48 years - EXS see page 7/8.--- Two different markets: Austria and Germany but the same publishing house and therefore the same text (different target group: Austria and Germany).

I just try to translate it into English literally.

Exco Resources - real bargain - BUY

(EXS) - ISIN: AU000000EXS9 - Shares outstanding: 326,1 million - Share price A$ 0.20 (Febr. 5th, 2010) - Market cap.: A$ 65,2 million - cash: A$ 19,9 million (31.12.2009)

Based on their assets, the White Dam Gold deposit and the Cloncurry Copper project can the company be considered as strongly undervalued. Shaw Research, Sydney gives EXS a fair value of A$ 0.45/share. FD Capital increased mid January 2010 the 12 month target price to A$ 0.65. And indeed the investors in general focuses too much of a possible off take ore agreement with the resource giant Xstrata and sold their shares nerve wracking, after the Xstrata annoncement in Dec. 09. The money manager don't believe on a JV agreement with Xstrata anymore. We had a similiar situation with Hillgrove (HGO) as the shares were quoted at A$ 0.14 and we considered that price a bargain. GOLD - The White Dam operation of Exco Resources in Southern Australia goes in production as of April 2010 with a forseen annual output of 50'000 ounces. The production costs are calculated with 570 A$ per ounce. The yearly cashflow will be round 20 million US$. COPPER - The Resources of Exco from the Cloncurry Copper project in Queensland are 51 million tons ore with grades of 0.83% copper = 425'000 tons copper and 0,23 g/t gold = 373'000 ounces. Beginning of December decided Xstrata with a capital injection of US$ 542 million to finance their underground operation in order to avoid the closure of the Ernst Herny Mine (8km away from Exco's Cloncurry Project). Is just a question of time until a JV with Exco became fact. Xstrata needs in principle the Exco copper for reaching an optimum capacity of their smelting works. The first talk were not successful. Exco has no interest to sell of cheaply their "silver". Rather builts Exco an own processing plant. Even a financial participation of a copper hungry Chinese commodity company is more as possible.


Exco Resources (EXS) ISIN: AU000000EXS9 zum Schnppchenpreis
Anzahl Aktien: 326,1 Mio. Kurs A$ 0.20 (5.02.2010) Brsenkapitalisierung: A$ 65,2 Mio.
Barvermgen: 19.9 Mio. A$ (31.12.09).
Die Exco Aktien notiert zur Zeit bei A$ 0.20 - ein wahres Schnppchen. Basierend auf deren Vermgenswerten,
dem White Dam Gold Deposit und dem Cloncurry Kupfer Projekt, kann die Gesellschaft als
stark unterbewertet eingestuft werden. Show Research, Sydney taxiert den fairen Wert von EXS
Risiko-Hinweis:
Jedes Investment in Aktien ist mit Risiken behaftet. Aufgrund von politischen, wirtschaftlichen
oder sonstigen Vernderungen kann es selbst bei Standardwerten zu erheblichen
Kursverlusten, im schlimmsten Fall sogar zum Totalverlust kommen. Engagements in die
vorgestellten Aktien bergen zudem teilweise Whrungsrisiken. Alle Angaben stammen
aus Quellen, die wir fr vertrauenswrdig halten. Eine Garantie fr die Richtigkeit kann
dennoch nicht bernommen werden. Um Risiken abzufedern, sollen Kapitalanleger ihr
Vermgen grundstzlich breit streuen. Einzelne Positionen sollten nicht mehr als 3 bis 5%
des Depots ausmachen.
Hanseatischer Wirtschaftsdienst AG, Langenstcken 36 a, 22393 Hamburg,
Tel.: 040-790 60 84, Fax: 040-790 94 68
pro Aktie mit A$ 0.45. FD Capital erhhte Mitte Jan. 2010 das 12 Monatsziel auf A$ 0.65. Und in der
Tat, die Investoren fokussieren sich zu stark auf den mglichen Abnahmevertrag mit dem Gebiets-
Nachbarn, dem Rohstoffgiganten Xstrata und verkaufen entnervt - da man nach dem Dez. 09
Announcement seitens Xstrata nicht mehr an ein JV Abkommen glaubt - die Exco Resources Aktien.
Eine hnliche Situation hatten wir mit Hillgrove Resources (HGO) als wir die Aktie beim Kurs von
A$ 0.14 als Schnppchen einstuften. Heute notiert der Wert bei A$ 0.20 (4.02.10).
GOLD Die White Dam Gold Mine von Exco Resources in Sd-Australien geht im April 2010 mit
einer vorgesehenen Jahresfrderung von 50000 Unzen per annum in Produktion. Die Frderkosten
wurden mit 570 A$ pro Feinunze berechnet. Der jhrliche cashflow wird ungefhr 20 Mio. US$ pro
Jahr generieren.
KUPFER Die Exco Ressourcen aus dem Cloncurry Kupfer Projekt in Queensland betragen
51 Millionen Tonnen Erz mit Gehalten von 0.83% Kupfer = 425000 Kupfer und 0,23 G/T Gold =
373000 Unzen. Nachdem Xstrata anfang Dezember entschied den Untertageabbau mittels einer
Kapitalaufnahme von US$ 542 Millionen zu finanzieren um eine Schlieung der Ernst Henry Mine (8
km vom Exco Cloncurry Projekt entfernt) zu vermeiden, ist es nur eine Frage der Zeit bis ein JV mit
Exco Resources Tatsache wird. Xstrata bentigt im Prinzip das Exco Kupfer zur besseren Auslastung
ihrer Kupfer Schmelzanlangen. Die ersten Gesprche waren noch nicht von Erfolg gekrnt.
Denn Exco wird das Tafelsilber nicht verschleudern. Eher geht man mit einer eigenen Anlage in
Produktion. Auch eine finanzielle Beteiligung eines kupferhungrigen chinesischen Rohstoff-Unternehmens
wre gut vorstellbar.


----------



## financial chat (11 March 2010)

From Getagraph.com
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 11 Mar. 2010]: 
Exco Resources Limited is up by 3.85% yesterday from AUD 0.26 to AUD 0.27 The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 12.5% for the last 2 weeks., and is up by 12.5% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 189 756 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 367 056 shares for approx. AUD 99 105.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and weak rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.26, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.33 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt. 

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.26  Resistance 1:  AUD N/A 
Support 2:  AUD 0.25  Resistance 2:  AUD N/A 
Support 3:  AUD 0.24  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A


----------



## financial chat (7 April 2010)

Confidence Grows at CCP with Maiden Measured

The subject line probably says it all in this instance. 

The confidence comes not only from the conversion of resources to the measured category, but also as a result of the continued ability to add tonnage, grade, and consequently value, to the CCP. Importantly the increased value of the resources will be captured irrespective of where the ores are milled.



As mentioned in the announcement the Definitive Feasibility Study for the CCP is on track for completion later this year, as directors also look to make a commitment to a preferred development scenario within the next few months.



Progress at White Dam;
EXS are now only days away from first production. Leaching of the ore has been underway for a few weeks now and the tenor of the solutions has been increasing at an encouraging rate, which bodes well for both leach kinetics and recoveries.

Shareholders can look forward to receiving confirmation that EXS has joined the production ranks in the very near future.


----------



## financial chat (7 April 2010)

And this was before this morning's announcement!

No resistance points!

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 6 Apr. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 8.33% yesterday from AUD 0.24 to AUD 0.26 , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike or take a minor break for the next few days. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 4 out of 10 days, and is up by 4% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 489 006 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 599 016 shares for approx. AUD 155 744.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 16.2% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.24 and AUD 0.33 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.25 Resistance 1: AUD 0.26 
Support 2: AUD 0.24 Resistance 2: AUD N/A 
Support 3: AUD 0.22 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


----------



## financial chat (7 April 2010)

Proactive Investors Forum - Wednesday, April 07, 2010 

Exco Resources boosts resources at Cloncurry, is Xstrata far behind?

by Andrew McCrea 

The ability of Exco Resources (ASX: EXS) to define a mineable reserve at the Cloncurry Copper Project in North West Queensland, received a boost today with the release of a maiden measured resource at the E1 Camp deposit.

Confidence has been increased by conversion of 37% of the previous Indicated resource at E1 to the Measured category, which comprises 9.2Mt @ 0.87 % Cu and 0.25g/t Au.

Total resources at the E1 Camp have increased to 48.1Mt @ 0.72% Cu and 0.21g/t Au.

Exco Resources Cloncurry Copper Project comprises four key deposits, the E1 Camp, the Monakoff group of deposits, Mount Colin and the Great Australia Deposit. 

The main focus of recent drilling campaigns and resource modelling has been the E1 Camp, which now contains approximately 75% of the contained copper within the CCP.

Detailed geological logging and modelling of the E1 deposits has now been completed enabling the updated allowing 9.17Mt to be classified as Measured.

The Indicated and Measured resources at the E1 Camp now total 34Mt containing 257,000t of copper. This equates to 74% of the contained copper within the E1 resource being classified as Indicated or better.

Total resources for the CCP now comprise 55.7Mt @ 0.85% Cu & 0.22 g/t Au of which 37.9 Mt @ 0.86% Cu & 0.22 g/t Au has been classified as Indicated or Measured.

The Companys revised interim goal of reaching 30 Mt of Indicated resources within the CCP, as the basis

for the Definitive Feasibility Study, has been achieved.

The latest resource upgrades have also increased the belief within the company that ongoing work will lead to the definition of a 25-30Mt mineable reserve as the basis for an operation, centred at the E1 Camp, treating 2.5 to 3Mtpa over a 10-year project life.

With growing confidence in the resource and Exco's ability to define a mineable reserve and a sizeable 3mtpa+ operation at Cloncurry would also not be lost on Xstrata - with its Ernest Henry Operation - located just 8km to the east of Exco's CCP project.

Recently, Xstrata said, it "was looking at opportunities with juniors in the region to help bolster mill feed as the project transitioned to underground mining.

Xstrata's commitment to the Ernest Henry underground project could be a major catalyst to a potential deal with Exco having removed the uncertainty over their own future and longevity.

Conceivably, the proximity of the mineable resources at the CCP to Xstratas Ernest Henry Operation presents opportunities for the potential treatment of ore through that facility as an alternative to the development of a stand-alone concentrator operation by Exco. 

It would seem feasible for Exco to pursue a commercially acceptable ore supply arrangement with Xstrata, whilst continuing to progress the items that remain on the critical path for the stand alone concentrator option.

Michael Anderson, managing director of Exco is known to be bullish on the project's economics, with or without a partner. It's just that the economics of the Xstrata scenario are potentially so compelling.


----------



## financial chat (9 April 2010)

Wilson HTM  commence coverage

Part 1

Exco Resources Limited
First Impressions
Highlights

Exco Resources’ (“Exco”, EXS.AX) Michael Anderson, MD and Geoff Lang,
GM recently presented to Wilson HTM.

Exco Resources is a cashed up Copper/Gold explorer with exploration
tenements in Queensland and with imminent gold production from its White
Dam Gold mine in South Australia.

Exco are in the final stages of delivering a DFS on their Cloncurry Project. A
successful DFS will see the company transition into a junior copper producer
by late 2012. The project is targeting 25kt Cu pa for 10 years.

Key Points
The White Dam Gold Project is Exco Resources’ gold only project that is
currently being “fast tracked” to take advantage of the high gold price with
the intention of generating near term cash flow to fund the primary focus of
the company, the Cloncurry Copper Project (CCP). The White Dam Gold
Project is owned 75% Exco and 25% Polymetals. Polymetals is a privately
owned company and will be the operator allowing Exco to focus on
Cloncurry. Exco is targeting 50koz Au pa @ A$570 cash cost from April
2010.

On 11/9/09 Exco arranged financing with Barclays Capital for A$16m (100%)
through a Gold Repayment Facility. Exco has received A$12m (75%) in
deferred revenue. The loan comprises two tranches with a tenor of 2 years
with a pre payment of 20,915oz, approximately equal to the first year’s
production.

The CCP is Exco’s strategic long term play in Queensland, 40km from
Cloncurry. Exco have grown the CCP significantly over the past 18 months
and we anticipate further additions to the resources. Exco completed a prefeasibility
in June 2008 for CCP on a standalone basis. The company has
now undertaken a DFS on a 2.5-3mt pa plant that would produce 25kt of Cu
pa. Xstrata have left the door open for a junior to potentially feed the Ernst
Henry mill during the operation’s transition to underground mining. This
could potentially provide Exco with near term cash flow should Xstrata
partner.

Wilson HTM view
We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
the CCP. Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus
on the primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine
at CCP whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We look
forward to further increases in resource confidence as Exco moves towards
completing the DFS later in the year. In addition, we eagerly wait for a
commitment to a development scenario at the CCP.

Exco has been operating in the shadow of successful and well marketed
explorers such as Sandfire and Ivanhoe Australia. We see the current share
price as undervaluing the company on a multiples basis and an option play
into a soon-to-be junior copper producer.

White Dam – 75% Exco, 25% Polymetals
The White Dam Gold Project is Exco Resources’ gold only project that is
currently being “fast tracked” to take advantage of the high gold price and to
generate near term cash flow to fund the primary focus of the company, the
Cloncurry Copper Project.

The White Dam Gold Project is located 80km West of Broken Hill, SA and
consists of 4 tenements, EL3309, EL3257, EL4199 and EL4200.

The project is owned 75% Exco and 25% Polymetals. Polymetals is a privately
owned company. Polymetals will be the operator allowing Exco to focus on
Cloncurry.

Poylmetals is an established mining company and has previously operated the
Hellyer Zinc operation in Tasmania. Exco received numerous bids for the
operatorship and management have described their partners as a “well oiled
machine”.

Production scheduled for April 2010.
2.1mt pa @ 1.05 g/t Au with 70% recovery for 50koz
A$570/oz cash costs 1:1 strip, 2.5 year LOM

Current inventory consists of 75% oxide ore and 25% fresh “sulphide/refractory”
ore.

Exco believes there is significant potential to extend the mine life beyond the 2.5
years. There is an additional 87koz au at Vertigo located just to the south which
is 60% sulphide. Exco are currently applying for a mining lease over this
inventory.

Exco have significant tax losses and are not expected to incur any tax payable in
the near term.

On 11/9/09 Exco arranged financing with Barclays Capital for A$16m (100%)
through a Gold Repayment Facility. Exco has received A$12m (75%) in deferred
revenue. The loan comprises two tranches with a tenor of 2 years with a pre
payment of 20,915oz, approximately equal to the first year’s production (Delivery
schedule below).

Exco have purchased puts over 15,000oz at a strike price of A$1,100 and
has entered contracts for the forward sale of 5,000oz at a price of A$1,216.
Barclays have been granted 4.5m options at A$0.28 expiring on 10/9/10 in
exchange for fees.

We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
CCP.

Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus on the
primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine at
CCP whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.


----------



## financial chat (9 April 2010)

Part 2

Cloncurry
Overview
The Cloncurry Copper Project (CCP) is Exco’s strategic long term play in
Queensland. Exco have grown the CCP significantly over the past 18 months
and we anticipate further additions to resources.

The Cloncurry Copper project is within a 100 km radius of the town of Cloncurry
in NW Qld, Australia. It is made up of numerous tenements and mining leases
including the E1 Camp, Great Australia, Monakoff, Kangaroo Rat, and Mt Colin
deposits.

CCP is well positioned geologically, to infrastructure and to a permanent work
force. The main deposit is the E1 camp which is 8 kms from Xstrata’s Ernest
Henry mine.

The deposit consists of sulphide copper-gold mineralisation occurring mainly in
magnetite, pyrrhotite, and chalcopyrite-pyrite mineral assemblages.

The project sits in proximity to Ivanhoe Australia’s Cloncurry deposit and
Xstrata’s Ernest Henry mine.
Cloncurry - Ivanhoe Australia (IVA.AX) – Resource containing; 3.6mt Cu,
6.1moz Au, 23moz Ag, 91kt Mo and 152kt Re.
Ernest Henry – Xstrata (XTA.LN) – Resource containing; 1.3mt Cu, 2.3moz
Au, 27mt Fe3O4.
CCP – Exco Resources (EXC.AX) – Resource containing; for 457kt Cu,
367koz Au.

Cloncurry feasibility
Exco completed a pre-feasibility in June 2008 on a standalone basis. The
company has since undertaken a DFS based on a 2.5-3mt pa plant that
would produce 25kt of Cu pa @ US$1.5/lb for 10 years. Exco’s indicative
estimates value the project at A$256m using a 8.5% wacc.

Notes from the pre-feasibility
Mining operations will be from 6 deposits located at 3 separate areas.
Operations will centre on the E1 Camp and will utilise open pits using
conventional blast, excavate and haul mining techniques with a waste to ore
strip ratio of 4.5:1.

Pit shells were estimated at US$2/lb Cu with a total Mine Plan Inventory
(MPI) of 22mt @ 0.92% Cu, 0.25 g/t Au.

A 2mtpa plant is expected to utilise conventional methods of crushing,
grinding and flotation to produce a sulphide concentrate to be sold to third
parties for smelting and refining. Test work demonstrates recoveries of 92%
for Cu and 80% for Au. Tailings and waste rock will be placed in surface
dumps close to the processing plant. Water will be sourced primarily from
pit dewatering.

Projected plant output ~20kt pa Cu, 13koz pa Au (~500kt pa Fe3O4)

Total capex of A$208m. Exco have re-iterated that the DFS should return a
similar capex estimate.

Changes to the inventory

Exco has just moved part of the E1 Camp inventory to measured status.
The total tonnage at the E1 camp has increased by 7% to 48mt and grade
has declined slightly to 0.72%.

Exco has recently expanded the CCP inventory by adding the Mt Colin
underground deposit. This deposit is located between Mt Isa and Cloncurry
and is within an 80km radius from the E1 Camp. The deposit contains 1.5mt
@ 2.47% for 37kt Cu. Exco has commenced a study into the economics of
the deposit which has the potential to significantly enhance the economics
of the CCP. The haulage distance from Mt Colin to the planned E1 Camp
plant is the primary outstanding issue.

The resource at the time of the pre-feasibility was 35mt @ 0.92% Cu, of
which, 22mt was to be mined. This implies resource to MPI conversion of
60%.

Applying a similar conversion to the current resource at CCP of 55mt @
0.85% Cu, and assuming no increase to the copper price used in the cut off,
we infer an MPI at CCP of 33mt @ 0.85% for 280kt Cu. This is slightly
above managements expectations of a minable reserve of 25-30mt.

Scenarios for advancing CCP
1) Standalone development – Develop the operation independently,
targeting 10 year mine life with first production from 2012.

2) JV – Develop the operation in conjunction with a partner. Given the
Chinese appetite for investment in resources, it is our view that a Chinese
partner could likely assist in funding the development capital in exchange for
off take agreements.

3) Utilise existing infrastructure – Supply Xstrata’s Ernest Henry mill.

We see three primary reasons for Exco to send ore to Xstrata’s plant, 1) the
plant is within 10km of the E1 Camp, 2) the plant at Ernest Henry processes
similar ore and thus requires minimal modification and 3) the current open
pit at Ernest Henry is close to depletion and the underground production
profile will not be able feed the current mill to full capacity..

Milling at Ernest Henry would bring production forward and save Exco
significant development capital. Xstrata’s CEO Charlie Sartain, recently
spoke at the Austmine conference in Brisbane and gave the strongest
indication to date of the possibility of a junior supporting the Ernest Henry
Mill. Mr Sartain stated that Xstrata was looking at opportunities to partner
with juniors in the region to help increase throughput during the operation’s
transition to underground production. The underground at Ernest Henry
contains 90mt @ 1.2% Cu, 0.68 g/t Au and 25% Fe3O4. Production from the
underground will be materially lower than the previous open pit operation
thus potentially leaving capacity for a junior to partner.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We
look forward to further increases in resource confidence as the
company moves towards completing the DFS later in the year. In
addition, we eagerly wait for a commitment to a development scenario
at the CCP.

The E1 camp contains large tonnages at modest copper grades.
Mining at less than 1% copper does not preclude positive economics.

Our view is that mining from multiple pits, coupled with the haulage
distance from Mt Colin and Monakoff to the E1 Camp could potentially
reduce the overall economics of CCP.

Exco are hopeful that a successful DFS will see the company
transition into a junior copper producer by late 2012.

Recent drilling at CCP
Drilling activity in the December quarter was limited due to seasonality.
Drilling has since re-commenced and Exco are now targeting further
deposits at CCP. Initial results have returned;

34m @ 0.7% Cu, 0.22 g/t Au from 22m at Eight Mile Creek East
6m @ 1.62% Cu, 0.44 g/t Au at Tanbah Prospect

6m @ 1.56% Cu, 0.71 g/t Au at Salebury Prospect

Joint Ventures
Ivanhoe JV – Exco 100%, Ivanhoe option to earn in 80%
Ivanhoe Australia is expected to earn-in its 80% share by May 2010.
The Ivanhoe JV was formed in May 2007 and covers 560km² of Exco
tenements in the Soldiers Cap and Tringadee Project areas. The tenements
are contiguous with Ivanhoe’s Cloncurry Project tenements in the Selwyn
district just to the south.

The initial option agreement required
An initial investment of A$7.92m for 12.2% of Exco’s issued capital, the
funds were directed to the company’s other projects.
A minimum of A$600,000 during the first 12 months, and
A further A$4.6m over 3 years to earn in 80% of the project.
Total investment at the project level of A$5m.

Liontown JV
The Liontown JV covers the Fort Constantine South Project which is
adjacent to Exco’s E1 Camp at CCP.

Exco has passed the first stage of the JV by spending A$200,000. Exco can
now earn-in up to 70% by spending A$1m over the next 18 months to earn
51%, followed by a further A$2m to earn an additional 19% to take total
interest in the project to 70%.

Four targets have been drilled with only low level intercepts. Exco is
planning further geological and geochemistry testing, to assess the level of
follow up required.


----------



## financial chat (9 April 2010)

Part 3

Financials
Share price A$0.28, Shares 326m
A$91m Market Cap, A$71m EV

A$(19.9)m net debt, A$19.9m cash, A$0m debt as at 31/12/09

A total of 21.05m options are outstanding. 2.5m A$0.20 options expiring at 30
April 2010 and 1.5m A$0.25 options expiring 30 August are all in the money.

22/11/09 The Company raised A$10.1m through the issue of 41.3m shares @
A$0.245.

2/12/09 the company issued 1.65m A$0.275 options which vested
immediately to Fox Davies in exchange for fees.

Exco have pre sold 15,687ozs. The ounces will be delivered from 31 Jan
2011 (see schedule on page 2)

Exco have highlighted a total of A$6.5m in cash burn over the next quarter,
comprising A$1m on exploration/evaluation and A$5.5m on development
capital.

Top 3 share holders, Ivanhoe Australia 20.2%, JP Morgan Nominees 9.5%,
Lion Selection 8.1%.

Valuation
Copper approach (excluding White Dam)
Exco is trading at a significant discount to its peers.

Based on 520kt Cu resource at CCP and using a conservative EV/Resource
of A$348/t, we can infer a value of A$180m. We are aware that 1/4 of the
CCP copper resource sits out side of the E1 Camp at neighboring deposits
up to 90km away. Valuing just the E1 Camp, we can infer a value of
A$120m.

Gold approach (excluding CCP)
Although Exco is a copper company with gold credits, and thus unlikely to
trade at gold multiples, we can still infer a value for the White Dam Gold
Project.

Using an EV/Resource multiple for a junior gold producer of A$125/oz, we
can infer a value of A$30m equity share for White Dam.

Adding back A$19.9m in cash we reach a market value of A$50m. This
implies that the market is only pricing in A$25m for CCP.

A$25m for CCP significantly under values the project. This value implies a
resource of only 80kt Cu @ A$312/t Cu, approximately 6x less than the
current JORC resource, 500kt Cu.

Copper EV/Resource – Australian explorers
Exco is trading at a significant discount to its peers

Going forward
We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
CCP.

Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus on the
primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine at CCP
whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.

The E1 camp at CCP contains large tonnages at modest copper grades.
Mining at less than 1% copper does not preclude positive economics.

Our view is that mining from multiple pits, coupled with the haulage distance
from Mt Colin and Monakoff to the E1 Camp could potentially reduce the
overall economics of CCP.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We look
forward to further increases in resource confidence as the company moves
towards completing the DFS later in the year. In addition, we eagerly wait for
a commitment to a development scenario at the CCP.

Xstrata have left the door open for a junior to potentially feed the Ernst
Henry mill during the operation’s transition to underground mining. This
could potentially provide Exco with near term cash flow should Xstrata
partner.

Exco are hopeful that a successful DFS will see the company transition into
a junior copper producer by late 2012.

Exco has been operating in the shadow of successful and well marketed
explorers such as Sandfire and Ivanhoe Australia. We see the current share
price as undervaluing the company on a multiples basis and an option play
into a soon-to-be junior copper producer.


----------



## financial chat (9 April 2010)

Now on the Exco website.



http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/100407_WilsonHTMResearchNote_ExcoResourcesLtd.pdf


----------



## financial chat (12 April 2010)

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Monday 12 Apr. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.90% yesterday from AUD 0.29 to AUD 0.31 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 24% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 101 790 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 948 435 shares for approx. AUD 294 015.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.29, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.35 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt. 

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.28  Resistance 1:  AUD N/A 
Support 2:  AUD 0.25  Resistance 2:  AUD N/A 
Support 3:  AUD 0.24  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A


----------



## financial chat (13 April 2010)

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 13 Apr. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 29.17% over the past 2 weeks. 

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited has broken the strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.28, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.32 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt. 

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.28  Resistance 1:  AUD N/A 
Support 2:  AUD 0.25  Resistance 2:  AUD N/A 
Support 3:  AUD 0.24  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A 

From Getagraph.com


----------



## financial chat (14 April 2010)

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Wednesday 14 Apr. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.45% yesterday from AUD 0.31 to AUD 0.33 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 32% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,25 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,15 million shares for approx. AUD 381 102.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.30, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.36 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt. 

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.31  Resistance 1:  AUD N/A 
Support 2:  AUD 0.28  Resistance 2:  AUD N/A 
Support 3:  AUD 0.25  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A


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## financial chat (15 April 2010)

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 15 Apr. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 43.48% over the past 2 weeks. 

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited has broken the strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.29, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.33 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt. 

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.31  Resistance 1:  AUD N/A 
Support 2:  AUD 0.28  Resistance 2:  AUD N/A 
Support 3:  AUD 0.25  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A 

From Getagraph.com


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## financial chat (15 April 2010)

fat prophets report


http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/100414_FatProphetsReportonExco.pdf


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## financial chat (27 April 2010)

From Getagraph.com - note the new target within 3 months:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 23 Apr. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 0% for the last 2 weeks.. 

3 MONTH TREND 
Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 60.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.45 and AUD 0.50 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.28  Resistance 1:  AUD 0.32 
Support 2:  AUD 0.25  Resistance 2:  AUD 0.33 
Support 3:  AUD 0.24  Resistance 3:  AUD 0.34


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## rule1110 (5 May 2010)

Anyone know whats going on with the sudden drop?
Is it the rudd tax? Yesterday it dropped the 22c then went back up to 25c. Was looking very strong in previous weeks?
I noticed in the accountments they raised $500K by selling 20c shares to employees and the director purchased a heap of shares, could this be the reason for the sudden drop?


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## financial chat (4 June 2010)

p48 of todays AFR:

Xstrata cancels projects worth $6.6b

.....But it could play into the hands of juniors Exco Resources and Cudeco, both of which are well positioned to supply copper to the Xstrata's Mt. Isa concentrator...


.... Exco said earlier this week that it was still keen to do a deal with Xstrata, as it is the closest known sulphide resource to the Ernst Henry Mine. ...


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## financial chat (14 July 2010)

Bullish signals

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSigna...lia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources rises 4.0% on high volatility and expanding price range Exco Resources, Australia's 113th largest metals/mining company by market capitalisation, traded between an intraday low of 25.0c and a high of 26.0c. The price range has expanded in the last two days (from 0.50c two days ago to 1.0c today) which, accompanied by a price rise, is a bullish signal. Since the start of trading its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 4.0% was 4.1 times the average daily volatility of 1.0%, up from 2.0% on Tuesday and 2.0% on Monday. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal. The stock price gained 1.0c (or 4.0%) to close at 26.0c, after a third day of trading unchanged at 26.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 77.3 points (or 1.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 2.2%.

Short-Term Rating (Technical): 5 out of 5
Its short term rises have been combined with strong volume resulting in strong momentum rises over 1 day. Significantly its price of 26.0c is at a premium of 4% to its 200-day moving average price of 25.0c. Its 52-week range has been 36.0c to 17.50c; it is trading at a discount of 27.8 % to its 52-week high and a premium of 48.6 % to its 52-week low. $1,000 invested exactly one year ago is now worth $1,106 of which $106 is a capital gain.
Recommended stop loss: 24.05c


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## financial chat (21 July 2010)

EXS mentioned in Shaws morning notes again referring to last weeks report. Makes specific point that they expect a substantial re-rating on the back of the forthcoming announcement of an off-take arrangement with Xstrata.

Hope that they have got good mail!


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## financial chat (22 July 2010)

Over the past 2 weeks or so there has been a consistent seller that reloaded between 30-75k at the top of the queue to sell.

Today that seller seems to have stopped, possibly having finished their line.

Talking to someone who has access to broker data, I understand that Pattersons have been the major seller over the last couple of weeks with 1.65m. So adding the last couple of days trades that have not yet settled and it was possible a line of 2-2.5m that has now been done.

If that selling has finished then we can expect the stock to firm over coming days.

Add to this that the quarterly report is due next week, which will most probably have decent production details in the report, (now that we are a producer), and possibly exploration results from Qld, all of which will add to the strength.

If Shaw's mail is correct with news of the offtake agreement being imminent, then life could be very rosy!


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## GumbyLearner (23 July 2010)

Hi fin chat.

Thankyou for the posts on this thread very informative.


Do you know what percentage stake IVA has in EXS? 
I know they signed a JV in 2008.
http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/080821_IvanhoeCompletesInitialJVEarn-In_FINAL.pdf

Do they have any options to buy more? 

Cheers
GL


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## financial chat (29 July 2010)

looking strong - clear 29c and we might be off and running

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf


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## financial chat (29 July 2010)

"Do you know what percentage stake IVA has in EXS?"

"Do they have any options to buy more?"



From today's quarterly report they have included an updated top 20 shareholder list and it says that IVA have 20.3%

They have no further options to exercise.


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## financial chat (5 August 2010)

Red hot commentary from Shaws today:

We have a BUY on EXS, and a A$0.50 target price.

We are beginning to believe that the White Dam gold project is even better than the
conservative picture the company is painting.

Michael Anderson is in Kalgoorlie, and it appears the story is gaining some
traction amongst the punters, judging by the buying interest today.

With a project design capacity of 50kozpa, the mine is reportedly running
at over 60kozpa, and we believe this could jump again to 80kozpa, and we
continually revise up our expectations. Why?

* Company being conservative, A$560/oz reported cash cost should
fall, and with only 2 out of 3 leach pads up and running, a 30% jump
on current production looks possible;
* At this rate existing reserves will run out within 2 years, that is why they are
mobilising drill rigs to expand the 170koz reserve and 330koz resource base-
either way, why not produce more gold now?;
* Cashflow to EXS will grow to A$2-3m/month by early next year (A$10m/quarter at spot?);
* Our valuation of A$52m for EXS's share is based on our conservative
US$900-950/oz gold price and a total mined reserve of 220koz. Both the reserve,
and the gold price could grow and we have an A$80m spot valuation on
EXS's 75% share.

Not too many companies are mining gold for A$560/oz or less recently, only
Lihir at Mt Rawdon, Newcrest at Cracow and Ramelius come to mind. Even Avoca
didn't cut it at Higginsville, recording A$671/oz cash cost last quarter.

A common mis-conception amongst non-industry types is you can't make money on 1g/t dirt. Wrong. Some of Australia's most profitable mines are at this grade (think Boddington, Lake Cowal, Mt Rawdon etc). Newmont's McPhillamy's will be in this highly profitable, sub A$500/oz camp in my view (ALK has 49%).

The real value driver of EXS, Cloncurry,continues to be progressed behind the scenes.
We believe the logic for someone to make a move on EXS is increasingly compelling,
particularly with copper at US$3.30/lb.

Even though formal enviro approval isn't due till December, we believe every month Xstrata
waits to do a deal on Ernest Henry offtake, it costs them A$4m. What I mean by this, is
if they wait until December/January to deal on EXS, then it could be too late: The Chinese
and others may have dealt on the project already (see CDU announcement). We believe
the logic of a stand-alone development is compelling, and can be easily funded,
hence the pressure really is on Xstrata to act in the near term.

When? hard to say, either way EXS is not sitting around waiting to be asked to the ball.
It is already fending off other suitors. What happens between now and Christmas
will be interesting, however its hard to see EXS shareholders coming off second best.

Major shareholder Ivanhoe Australia, with their A$1b market cap and 20.2% stake in EXS,
could also be weighing up their options. A scrip bid would be a nice way to throw a spanner in Xstrata's plans, and deliver them yet another production centre to complement Merlin and Mount Dore.

We see plenty of value in EXS, even taking a 50% risk discount to Cloncurry. As mentioned
previously, the stock is trading on 1yrs cashflow once Cloncurry is up and running (assuming
offtake deal) and a PE of 1.4x. Only two things can really happen here, either Xstrata has no interest
in a deal, and prefer to spend A$400m building a shaft at Ernest Henry and exploring for their own ore
or they see a free A$50mpa kick (including gross smelter benefits) from Exco's ore as a reasonable proposition.
If our thesis is correct, then there will be two winners: EXS shareholders +A$200m, Xstrata +A$500m.


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## financial chat (5 August 2010)

There is no doubt in my mind that the "interested parties" in negotiations at present are the Chinese.

There is also no doubt in my mind that Xstrata have waited too long to negotiate from a point of strength. We now have the situation as referred to by various analysts, that EXS are fending off offers, so the Board of EXS now have the upper hand.

Xstrata will now be forced to make a genuine offer at a suitably acceptable price. Even if the offer is higher than any offer coming from the Chinese, Ivanhoe could still trump it with a scrip offer.

Furthermore we know that the Chinese will pay top $ for Aussie resources. So Xstrata are going to have to pay up.

We must also be very grateful to the ASX. Michael Anderson must have been very happy to receive the query. That way he was forced by regulation to confirm that they are in discussions.

Two questions remain.
1. How much will the top bidder have to pay?
2. How long will it take to conclude?

I am tipping top dollar and very soon.


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## prgudula (11 August 2010)

good gain today today while overall market is down
#  last $0.395  today +$0.060 / 17.91% 

http://www.excoresources.com.au/documents/100716_ShawStockbrokingReportonExco.pdf


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## financial chat (11 August 2010)

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

"In the Australian market of 1,278 stocks and 39 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 97 which means it is beating 97% of the market."


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## financial chat (11 August 2010)

From Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Wednesday 11 Aug. 2010]: 

Exco Resources Limited is up by 17.65% yesterday from AUD 0.34 to AUD 0.40 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 42.86% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 16,44 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 19,83 million shares for approx. AUD 7,93 million.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.34, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.42 will be next possible trend top level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt. 


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.35 Resistance 1: AUD N/A 
Support 2: AUD 0.34 Resistance 2: AUD N/A 
Support 3: AUD 0.33 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


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## financial chat (11 August 2010)

Clock ticking as Cloncurry copper heats up BARRY FITZGERALD 
August 11, 2010 - 9:11AM
.Things are stirring up Cloncurry way in north Queensland. From the update file on the region's copper riches comes the news that Exco has raised $4.9 million from the placement of 5 per cent of its shares with the Singapore-based, and Chinese-connected, Sin-Tang Development.

More to the point is that the deal has started the clock ticking on a bigger deal in which Sin-Tang could buy an interest in Exco's Cloncurry copper project (CCP), as well as provide debt financing for its development.

The broader deal cuts across the on-again, off-again, on-again talks that Exco has had with Xstrata in the last five years for ore from a development of the CCP. Xstrata's Ernest Henry treatment plant sits 8 kilometers or so away and is operating at less than half capacity.

Does the Sin-Tang deal lock Xstrata out? It doesn't. But Big Mick Davis at Xstrata or more likely his Queensland minions will have to move quickly. And they will want to be talking to 20.2 per cent (pre-placement) Exco shareholder, Ivanhoe Australia.

IVA is happy with its investment in Exco. After-all, its el supremo, Robert Friedland, reckons we are heading off into uncharted territory in terms of copper demand and prices. But IVA has got enough going on elsewhere in the region to make the decision on letting Exco go an easy one, at the right price of course.

The betting is that Xstrata will move quickly to secure the CCP, either by taking over Exco or by bidding at the asset level. The latter would leave Exco cashed up and with its White Dam gold interest, plus lots of exploration ground.

The betting reflects the obvious. Xstrata will find it difficult to let go the chance of securing 348,000 tonnes of copper just 8 kilometres from a plant which desperately needs additional ore to keep operating costs at a reasonable level, let alone keep up copper concentrate supplies to its Mt Isa smelter/Townsville.

It's all a neat situation for Exco shareholders to be in. If Xstrata does not step up and do the obvious, Sin-Tang will fill the void. And if Xstrata does do the obvious, Sin-Tang will walk away with the second prize of a profit on its 30 cents a share subscription price. Could be a handy turn too.

Exco closed at 33.5 cents a share on yesterday, valuing the company at $110 million.


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## financial chat (11 August 2010)

"The betting is that Xstrata will move quickly to secure the CCP, either by taking over Exco or by bidding at the asset level. The latter would leave Exco cashed up and with its White Dam gold interest, plus lots of exploration ground."

If IVA are prepared to sell out at the right price, so would Lion so it would definitely be on the cards that a takeover is in the offing.


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## financial chat (11 August 2010)

At lunchtime I posted the following on another site:

"wont be able to hold them down now, buyer lets 400-500k build up on the offer then goes bang and cleans them out:

this is insto or corporate, private client brokers dont tend to buy like this."

What transpired later was amazing to watch. With a huge special sale taking place late in the day, it is likely that the buyer was also buying most of the other stock offered today.


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## prgudula (11 August 2010)

52 Wk Range:   0.175 to 0.395

Good buying volume building up for last few trading days.

    * Buyers        2,300,779 

    * Sellers            464,269

Macquarie Consensus recommendation: Strong Buy

Looking exciting days ahead.


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## financial chat (12 August 2010)

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 12 Aug. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited fell by -2.50% last day from AUD 0.40 to AUD 0.39. . In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 39.29% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the trading volume fell by -14,96 million shares and in total there was bought and sold 4,87 million shares for approx. AUD 1,90 million.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.35, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.43 will be next possible trend top level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt. 



Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.35 Resistance 1: AUD 0.40 
Support 2: AUD 0.34 Resistance 2: AUD N/A 
Support 3: AUD 0.33 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


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## financial chat (12 August 2010)

More bullish signals just released from the company:

Alisdair Cooke outlaying $320k to buy 1M shares. Talk about confidence


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## financial chat (12 August 2010)

Sitting back watching the action over last few days has been great theatre.

It started with interest being generated whilst the managing director was at Diggers and Dealers.  Then the ASX decided to query the company as to the reason for the initial price range.  The response became a catalyst to push things along, just to flush out and fire up those who have been sitting on the fence for a long time. 

A masterstroke of good corporate upmanship.

To put this in perspective:

05/08-2.6 mill shares traded
06/08-2.8 mill shares traded
10/08-3.3 mill shares traded
11/08-19.8 mill shares traded (includes 13 mill off market)

Today 4.8 million shares traded.

Stakes are being/have been built and by more than one player. And the share price is rising strongly reflecting the interest coming from all quarters.

First we have our new Singaporean investor who subscribed to the placement that, when announced sent others in a flurry to see just how many shares could be acquired on market.

We also have two unknown positions at present:
the first being whether Xstrata has shown their hand, and if not, in what form they are going to enter the fray. Are they buying on market, are they only interested in making an asset play (and if so, what assets - is it only E1 or the total Qld portfolio), are they interested in making a bid for the company as a whole, or are they going to let others steal it all from them?

The second is who acquired the Lion shares. Was it Xstrata, the Singaporeans or a new entrant to the field? And what is that entity's intention? Are they building a position to be able to block a bid or argue for a better price from a position of strength.

We also have our major shareholder Ivanhoe raising a heap of cash and also being in a position that they could also offer scrip for EXS if they so chose to do so. Given the sale of the 13M shares by Lion and the recent placement that has taken place, what is IVA's long term intentions?

Barry FitzGerald's article about things heating up in Cloncurry is right on the mark, and we are about to see it unfold before our eyes.

No doubt Xstrata would not have been happy to see the announcement of our new Singaporean investor being interested in assisting with a stand alone mine development, and I am sure that Michael Anderson will have fielded a phone call from Xstrata to enquire if it is not too late to arrange a deal so that their mine still has sufficient ore to process.

It all looks very promising to see all this interest appear at once, and presumably shareholders will be the winners in coming weeks.


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## prgudula (14 August 2010)

Washington H Soul Pattinson buys 21.4m Exco Resources shares
(Australian Stock Exchange)   08:13 AM


August 13, 2010 Friday

Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company Ltd bought 21,424,200 Exco Resources Ltd shares from August 6, 2010 to August 12, becoming a substantial shareholder with 21,424,200 shares (6.52%).

STOCK DASHBOARD: August 13, 2010

Exco Resources

Closing Price: 40.0c

Price change from previous trading day: 3.9%

Relative Strength (6 months percentile rank): 96.8

Market capitalisation: $131.4 million

Price/Earnings: -37.1 times

Turnover volume: 3,580,744.0

Volume Index (1 is average): 7.4

Turnover value: $1.4 million

Turnover period: 2 years 7 months

Value of $1,000 invested 1 year ago: $1,667

Source: www.BuySellTips.com

Terms & Conditions Privacy
Copyright  © 2010 LexisNexis, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.


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## financial chat (16 August 2010)

An interesting article from our friend Barry Fitzgerald at the Melbourne Age 16/08/2010.

We all know now the identity of the fourth player, so Game on!!

"COULD a four-way tussle be unfolding for control of Exco Resources (ASX: EXS) - or at least its Cloncurry copper project (CCP)?

As previously mentioned in Garimpeiro, the pot first got stirred when Exco raised $4.9 million from the placement of 5 per cent of its shares with the Singapore-based, and Chinese-connected, Sin-Tang Development.

Sin-Tang also got an agreement under which it could negotiate to acquire an interest in the CCP, as well as provide debt financing for its development.

The Sin-Tang deal cut across talks that Exco has had with Xstrata in the last five years about ore from a development of the CCP going to Xstrata's Ernest Henry treatment plant. So we now have Sin-Tang and Xstrata on high alert from here on in. The same can be said for Exco's biggest shareholder with its 20 per cent holding and its own big time copper ambitions in the region, Ivanhoe Australia.

The fourth player in all this has yet to declare their hand.

But based on volumes in Exco shares last week, we could be seeing a substantial shareholder notice early this week. We're told we will all find interesting the name behind last week's buying."


Barry must have written the article on Friday prior to the announcement of SOL coming onto the register.

However, I think that there is either the potential of a 5th player, or SinTang or Xstrata have also started to make a move, as the unaccounted volumes for the last week surely dould not be traders.

I recall that IVA are sitting on 20.2% prior to any dilution coming into efffect from the placement of shares to SinTang.

But IVA would be permitted to increase their holding by 3% each 6 months. So IVA may have been a buyer in the last few days.

Like a number of others, I wouldn't rule out IVA making a scrip bid to start proceedings. 

Especially as Robert Friedland is so bullish on copper.

However if IVA purely wanted to see EXS sold at the highest price, a scrip bid launched now would ensure a much higher price for their shares should another bid come along from the likes XStrata. No doubt others would come out of the woodwork.

Just like any successful property auction, having a number of keen bidders ensures a good final price.

It might be that Xstrata and anyone else contemplating making a bid might have a window of opportunity to do so without competition from IVA until mid Sept.

IVA's fund raising is due to close then.

If they were to act before then, I think that they would be required to submit a supplementary or replacement prospectus for the fund raising.


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## financial chat (19 August 2010)

what does a 35% price movement mean?

If EXS share price increases from 44.5c to 60c (possibly with an early bid from just one of the likely bidders lining up)

AND

if CDU share price falls the same percentage to $1.50

THEN the market cap of EXS will be greater than that of CDU.

31Mt at 0.8%Cu and 0.1 g/t Au is actually less valuable than the pit inventories for the Cloncurry Project!

Surprised CDU haven't been slammed harder. But more falls should be expected in my opinion.

No way they should be worth what they still are. 

Whereas our share register goes from strength to strength with the quality and reputation of the latest entrants.

And the quality of the management make the clear distinction between the companies.

It gives little pleasure to say we told everyone so!


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## financial chat (22 August 2010)

Substantial Target Increase leads to buying?

On Friday afternoon we witnessed a strong upward movement in the price for EXS shares. Why?

There are a few plausible reasons that come to mind:

1. Michael Anderson, the Managing Director was delivering a presentation to a wholesale investment forum;

2. Shaw Stockbroking released a report late last week substantially updating its target price for EXS;

3. The continuing fall of popularity of a Cloncurry stablemate, CDU.

Shaw Stockbroking has substantially updated its target price for EXS from 50c to 80c at the end of last week, and coupled with some other factors, it can be expected that this review from Shaws is going to lead to significant amounts of buying in the next couple of weeks in my opinion.

Geoff Muers, the analyst for Shaws has for sometime believed that a deal with Xstrata for an ore agreement has looked imminent but his latest report suggests that he now expects Ivanhoe and Xstrata to slug it out by way of a hostile bidding war, and I tend to agree with that chain of thought. For a long time Xstrata have had the opportunity to strike a deal but they have elected to play a game of wait and see what will transpire. Unfortunately for Xstrata, the waiting game has now expired and other parties including Sin-Tang, have entered the game to try to secure a deal.

Soul Pattinson has jumped onboard, seizing a position in the top 20 shareholder list and looks as though it has been buying more shares in recent days.

Ivanhoe have seized the opportunity to increase its position to just under 23% of the register.
Geoffs valuation is based on the belief that a hostile bid may emerge in the short term from either player, looking to take full control of the asset via either a cash or scrip bid.

Elsewhere in the Cloncurry region it has been en eventful week for copper hopefuls with Cudeco's disapointing resource announcement. At the time of Geoff Meurs writing his report he pointed out that the share price of CDU had fallen by nearly 50% in the last month, whilst the share price of EXS had increased 70%. Since writing that report the figures have become even more dramatic with CDU continuing to fall, and EXS continuing to rise. The figures as of Fridays close are a 86% rise for EXS and a fall of 52% for CDU. 

If the amount of critisizm being registered on share market chatroom sites over the weekend against CDU is anything to gauge this coming weeks likely share price direction on, I think that we are about to witness a tsunami of selling there. The exit of shareholders from their register is likely to be linked to a certain extent to an increase in buying for EXS.

CDU's resource of 31Mt @ 0.67% Cu and 0.11g/t Au (plus cobalt credit?)compares to EXS with 61Mt @ 0.85% Cu, 0.25g/t Au. The market capitalization of EXS is still only 57% of CDU. As Geoff Meurs points out in his report, something is not right here, either EXS remains substantially undervalued, or CDU will find a lot more high grade ore. Geoff is of the view and so am I, that the former is more likely.

In the report Geoff goes on to state that Xstrata could pay up to A$1.28ps for EXS and still retain value as he is of the opinion that the Cloncurry project to be worth up to twice as much to Xstrata than EXS under a tolling arrangement (as Xstrata could charge more than A$30mpa above cost-rates) exluding any flow-on benefits from full mill utilisation at Ernest Henry. 

He ends his report saying that This indicates there is still plenty of room left on the A$100m value implied by the current market price of EXS (taking off A$50m for White Dam). The only question now is, who will be first to act? There is plenty of room between A$0.44ps and A$1.28ps.


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## financial chat (31 August 2010)

from Getagraph.com last night.

The upper target keeps getting higher!

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Monday 30 Aug. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 9.3% over the past 2 weeks. 

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 68.7% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.59 and AUD 0.93 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.47 
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.48 
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD 0.53


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## financial chat (1 September 2010)

exs superior to cdu says strachan 

Peter Strachan from Stock Analysis has just released a report that states "Unless there has been some serious and systematic error in sampling and assaying, the higher grade portion of (CDU's Rocklands) deposit turns out to be quite small and relatively low grade overall, compared to peers in the area, such as Exco Resources.


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## financial chat (1 September 2010)

"3mth price likely between 65c & 98c "

from Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Wednesday 1 Sep. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited fell by -2.13% last day from AUD 0.47 to AUD 0.46. The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 2.22% for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -389 548 shares and in total there was bought and sold 610 798 shares for approx. AUD 280 967.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 74.9% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.65 and AUD 0.98 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.47 
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.47 
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD 0.53


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## financial chat (2 September 2010)

On HC last night there was a reference to Goldmans being sellers of EXS of late and Iress confirms this.

This is very interesting information.

Given that Goldmans had not been active in the stock before, that suggests to me that SOL are trying to cap the price in a major way.

that would also tie in with the facts released by EXS. SOL had continued to increase their holding up until the time of the last set of presentation notes, and were not far away from having to submit a new Substantial s/h notice. 

this suggests to me that SOL are keen to buy more but want to do so at cheaper prices if they can.

Prior large buyer Goldman Sachs have been largest seller during the period 21/8/2010 to 27/8/2010.

Goldman Sachs Sold a net 812t. 1 buy and 116 sells.

Largest net buyer was Shaw with a net 2.419mil.  This is understandable given that they recently substantially upgraded their target price from 50c to 80c.


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## Jako (2 September 2010)

I have a lot of respect for Robert Milner at SOL.

They have a stack of cash available & have been looking to use it for about 18 months.

Robert Milner rarely trades in stocks, he is a long term holder or project builder.

I wonder if he is looking to finance the CCP, for a stake in the project ?

What SOL have done with NHC is an example of what may happen.

NHC could not find a lender to develop their project, SOL became the sole financier ( with a 60+ % holding ) & turned the project into reality.

NHC have risen from 0.40ps to 4.70ps over about 10 years with a high well over 5.00.

NHC have also paid dividends over this period of 1.45ps

this whole saga is going to become even more interesting.

Cheers


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## wagonredwheels (4 September 2010)

SOL is a 53% owner of copper chem (google it not publically listed) which is based in Cloncurry.  SOL now own close to 20% of Exco, and want to be the major player.


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## Jako (4 September 2010)

Thanks  WRW, I did not know that,

While we dont know Robert Milners ( SOL ) true reasons for taking the stake in Exco, we can speculate.

If he wasnt in it, as an all in takeover, perhaps he is after supply.

Copper is going to be in short supply over the next few years, & a supply contract could be a reason for the stake.

Still maybe he could just make a bid for the CCP & leave the rest, Exco would then have the gold project to finance exploration in their other leases & plenty of cash in the bank.

I guess it's just all speculation, untill we are told otherwise.

Cheers


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## financial chat (4 September 2010)

wagonredwheels said:


> SOL is a 53% owner of copper chem (google it not publically listed) which is based in Cloncurry.  SOL now own close to 20% of Exco, and want to be the major player.




From the latest presentation notes from EXS last month, SOL own 7.2%, not 20%.  IVA own 23% and JP Morgan 9%.

However, I can see the merit with SOL coming onboard now, and then offering to fund a stand alone plant so that they can get their hands on the ore.


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## wagonredwheels (5 September 2010)

my mistake 7.2% about 18 million, SOL don't want to take over, bu they would like to have a say in what's going on.  If you have a look at copper chem, which is located close by, they are currently expanding their plant and this would be an ideal acquisition.


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## financial chat (9 September 2010)

We have a very keen buyer today

This morning I initially thought that the share price may just rest until something triggered a move. The trigger might simply be an announcement that SOL have continued to buy.

On the chart that would look to be not too far away.

Additional results could not be too far away either.

I also note that the IVA share price is moving back up. I am inclined to think that $3 might trigger something.

But after looking at this morning’s trades I think that a trigger has been pulled.

SOL look to be buying again.

I think that they have held back as long as they can, but have now reached a point where they will have to declare that they own another 1%, and know that this is going to generate more buying, so they are starting to move ahead of the pack.

It started at 47 and has kept moving up, even clearing out lines so that they can get hold of stock

on another forum, another poster remarked that he thought that this was the start of the next upward leg. He was of the opinion that EXS will be above 60 this time next week.


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## Jako (9 September 2010)

I think Robert Milner (SOL) is buying up tp $0.50 at the minute.

The buying seems to stop at that level.

Maybe after an announcement of Substantial Shareholder, will trigger a rise, and a new buying level will be supported, $0.55ish ?????

Anyway watching the Big Boys operate is always interesting.

Cheers


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## financial chat (14 September 2010)

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources, Australia's 115th largest materials company by market capitalisation, has strengthened above its trend. The MACD indicator (12 day EMA-26 day EMA) is positive, a bullish signal. In the past 26 days this indicator was positive for 22 days, suggesting further
upside. The stock price climbed 2.50c (or 5.1%) to close at 51.50c, ending a two-day streak of losses. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 14.9 points (or 0.3%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 4.8%.


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## financial chat (14 September 2010)

This looks ready to rock and roll big time:

From Getagraph.com

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 14 Sep. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.12% yesterday from AUD 0.49 to AUD 0.52 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 13.04% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,80 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,15 million shares for approx. AUD 598 704.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays in the lower part of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good buying opportunity. A break down the bottom trendline at AUD 0.50 will in first place indicate a slower raising rate, but may as well be a early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 112.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.06 and AUD 1.29 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.53 
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD N/A 
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


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## financial chat (16 September 2010)

More evidence that we are still outperforming and bullish:

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources hits year-high 6th time in one month and 10th time in three months

Exco Resources, Australia's 114th largest materials company by market capitalisation, hit a 52-week high of 55.0c during the day, but closed lower at 51.0c. In the last one month the stock has hit a new 52-week high six times and in the last three months ten times, pointing to a significant uptrend. The stock price plunged 4.0c (or 7.3%) to close at 51.0c, ending a two-day streak of rises. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which fell 52.7 points (or 1.1%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -6.2%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.1 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.5 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price added 3.0% in the last week and soared 18.6% in the last month.

This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.4 times average for the week and by robust volume 2.8 times average for the month.

Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.6% for the week and 4.1% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 2.4% for the week and 14.5% for the month.

In the Australian market of 1,327 stocks and 77 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 96 which means it is beating 96% of the market.

The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.3 29 times suggesting further upside.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 38.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c.

In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high ten times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 51.0c and a high of 55.0c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.

Moving average price (MAP) [with equal weightage to prices at close] The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.81, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.81 nine times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 38.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c, another bullish indicator.

Exponential Moving Average Price (EMAP) [with higher weightage to recent prices]
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.3 29 times suggesting further upside.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

Relativities
Today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 5. In the Australian market of 1,327 stocks and 77 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 96 which means it is outperforming 96% of the market.


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## financial chat (16 September 2010)

And from Getagraph.com suggesting that further rise is signalized:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 16 Sep. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited fell by -7.27% last day from AUD 0.55 to AUD 0.51. . In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been falling in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is down by -1.92% in this period. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -809 517 shares and in total there was bought and sold 783 678 shares for approx. AUD 399 676.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 120.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.01 and AUD 1.36 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.52 
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.53 
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD 0.55


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## financial chat (17 September 2010)

expected to rise 122.1%:

From Getagraph.com

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 17 Sep. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 3.92% yesterday from AUD 0.51 to AUD 0.53 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 6% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day by -508 440 shares and in total there was bought and sold 275 238 shares for approx. AUD 145 876. You should note that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 122.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.04 and AUD 1.40 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.53 
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.55 
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


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## financial chat (17 September 2010)

copper-gold company Exco Resources (up 94%):

From MiningNews.net

Early pacesetters in the shareholder returns stakes 

Monday, 13 September 2010

ALLAN Trench identifies the early leaders who have posted impressive share price gains since the end of June for each of nine commodity groupings across the 200-strong Top Resources Stocks 2010 watchlist. 

 Several stocks have set the bourse on fire with their July and August shareholder returns. After a March quarter in the doldrums for many companies, the beginning of the 2010 financial year saw a number of stocks come out swinging, posting major gains for their shareholders. 

Those investors who subscribe to the mantra of the trend is your friend will pay particular interest to the list of companies who are out-performing their peers.

The honour roll is a lengthy one. Here are those companies on Strictly Boardrooms watchlist that led the field for the 2010-11 financial year to end August across each of the commodity groupings.

In Gold the prizes for the financial year to date go to Andean Resources (up 47% to the end August before the release of takeover offers for the company), to Integra Mining (up 42%, also seen as a takeover play) and to explorers Auzex Minerals (42%) and Austral Gold (39%).

In Copper/lead/zinc, the honours thus far go to minnow China Yunnan Copper Australia (up 65%); to South Australian copper-gold explorer Rex Minerals (65%) and not wishing to be left out, also to 2009 standout stock Sandfire Resources (58%). Thundelarra Exploration has also set the bourse racing, up 78% to end August from end June courtesy of strong drilling results.

The eclectic group of companies classified as Diversified miners and explorers have achieved several impressive performances. Chief among these were Brumby Resources (up 117% on encouraging manganese and gold results), Sandfires near neighbour Talisman Mining (up 95%) and copper-gold company Exco Resources (up 94%). 

Uranium has had a fair share of share price action too. NGM Resources (not on the Strictly Boardroom watchlist) receipt of a bid from Paladin Energy has seen its share price rise 69% to end August. Of those companies who are on the watchlist, Western Australian hopeful Energy and Minerals Australia climbed 61%, in so doing just edging out fellow uranium hopeful Energia Minerals which posted an impressive 56% gain.

Things have been a little quieter in Nickel where Western Areas led the field with a gain of 36%, out-performed only by Metals X, up by 56%.

Oil & Gas companies are struggling to make headway this year, with Elixir Petroleum (31%) and Karoon Gas Australia (12%), the best performers on the watchlist across a quiet sector.

Coal Fe Resources has more than doubled its share price (141%) followed by takeover target Continental Coal (66%) among Coal stocks.

Iron ore companies have generally had a quiet start to the new financial year perhaps related to the ongoing uncertainties over Labors future tax grab. 

The standout company of course was Mauritania-focused Sphere Minerals (up 107%), again showing the benefits of corporate appeal in lifting a share price as Xstrata unveiled a $2.50 per share cash offer for the company.

Finally, the rest of the Periodic Table, assigned to the Other metals/minerals category in the Strictly Boardroom watchlist, has had some star performers. 

Tin hopeful Kasbah Resources delivered a pretty impressive 80% gain in the two months to end August matching the rise of Lynas Corporation which rode the rare earth metals investment wave some 80% higher. 

Arafura Resources posted a 73% gain providing further evidence that rare earths are now firmly on the investment radar across Australia.

The share price race has only just commenced for this year but those companies listed above have already set the standard for other companies to follow. 

Good hunting.

Allan Trench is Adjunct Professor at the Western Australian School of Mines and a Non-Executive Director of several resources sector companies. He is the Perth representative for CRU Strategies, the consulting division of independent metals & mining advisory CRU group (allan.trench@crugroup.com).


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## financial chat (17 September 2010)

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources, Australia's 114th largest materials company by market capitalisation, has strengthened above its trend. The MACD indicator (12 day EMA-26 day EMA) is positive, a bullish signal. In the past 26 days this indicator was positive for 23 days, suggesting further upside. The stock price added 1.50c (or 2.9%) to close at 52.50c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 35.1 points (or 0.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 2.2%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.2 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.5 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price jumped 7.1% in the last week and soared 19.3% in the last month.

This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.3 times average for the week and 1.8 times average for the month.

Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.8% for the week and 4.0% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 5.3% for the week and 15.3% for the month.

In the Australian market of 1,326 stocks and 78 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 96 which means it is beating 96% of the market. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.

The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.3 26 times suggesting further upside.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 39.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c.

In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high ten times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 51.0c and a high of 52.50c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.

Volume and turnover period
There were 275,238 shares worth $142,579 traded. The volume was 0.4 times average trading of 631,030 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 48.1% (or a turnover period of 2 years 29 days).


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## wagonredwheels (17 September 2010)

financial chat & jako I have a few thoughts what are your e-mail addresses.  I am going to be watching the footy tonight, however would mind speaking with you tomorrow


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## Jako (17 September 2010)

No worries RW

grab@twpo.com.au

Only 2 points in it for wests, would have been a good match
or
Collingwood thrashed Geelong, hope it wasnt this one you wanted to watch, unless you support the Magpies.


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## wagonredwheels (18 September 2010)

have responded.  my teams are out of NRL so watched the AFL with my wife who loves the pies. Good to see the wobbles get in


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## wagonredwheels (18 September 2010)

financial chat.  I can't reply to your personal e-mail as I do not have enough posts.  Plaese tell me your e-mail and I'm more than willing to chat


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## Miner (18 September 2010)

Jako said:


> No worries RW
> 
> grab@twpo.com.au
> 
> ...






wagonredwheels said:


> have responded.  my teams are out of NRL so watched the AFL with my wife who loves the pies. Good to see the wobbles get in






wagonredwheels said:


> financial chat.  I can't reply to your personal e-mail as I do not have enough posts.  Plaese tell me your e-mail and I'm more than willing to chat





Folks

Hope you are well and probably running out of gas.

I noticed last few pumps there was no mention about Exco Resources.

AM I lost or visited wrong thread.

On Exco and investment of Robert Milner I would like to mention that SOL is a great investor in many companies. Robert has invested lot of money in few stocks which have no relation with Pharmaceuticals. But I do not think in any of them he has inclined to take over. As far as my reading is concerned he invests on good stocks. The plus sign is that if Robert invests then we can consider EXS is a good stock.

DYOR and DNH


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## Jako (18 September 2010)

miner,

Yes Robert Milner  has proven to be a good stock picker over the years.

As far as takeovers go SOL themselves have not takenover any companys.

Some of SOL's major & minor companys have been involved in takeover bids,  NHC bid for MCC, when Peabody were also bidding.
It did not come off though as MCC wanted more than either company were prepared to pay.
TPM (TPG Telecom) did takeover PWK (Pipe Networks) earlier this year though.
TPM are about 27% held by SOL, (off the top of my head)

As for Exco, SOL hold a stake (53%) in a company called CopperChem ( as was mentioned earlier on this thread), we consider his investment in Exco is to gain a supply of ore for CopperChem in some sort of deal, yet to be announced.

Time will tell.....

cheers


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## financial chat (20 September 2010)

hits year-high 11th time in three months

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources hits year-high 11th time in three months

Exco Resources, Australia's 110th largest materials company by market capitalisation, hit a 52-week high of 57.50c during the day. In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high eleven times, pointing to a significant uptrend. The stock rose for a second day on Monday bringing its two-day rise to 6.0c or 11.8%. The stock price surged 4.50c (or 8.6%) to close at 57.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which fell 8.0 points (or 0.2%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 8.7%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.4 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.5 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price soared 10.7% in the last week and 28.1% in the last month.
This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.9 times average for the week and 1.8 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.5% for the week and 4.8% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 10.2% for the week and 23.3% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,325 stocks and 78 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 97 which means it is beating 97% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 13 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 41.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 39.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high eleven times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 52.50c and a high of 57.50c. The price range has expanded in the last two days (from 4.0c two days ago to 5.0c today) which, accompanied by a price rise, is a bullish signal. Today its volatility of 9.5% was 6.7 times its average volatility of 1.4%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.

Volume and turnover period
There were 2,145,072 shares worth $1.2 million traded. The volume was 3.4 times average trading of 629,150 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 48.5% (or a turnover period of 2 years 22 days).

% Discount to high
The last price is at a discount of 0.9% to the 12-month high of 57.50c.


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## financial chat (20 September 2010)

from Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Monday 20 Sep. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 7.55% yesterday from AUD 0.53 to AUD 0.57 , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike or take a minor break for the next few days. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 18.75% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 1,87 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 2,15 million shares for approx. AUD 1,22 million.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 126.7% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.18 and AUD 1.45 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.48  Resistance 1:  AUD N/A 
Support 2:  AUD 0.47  Resistance 2:  AUD N/A 
Support 3:  AUD 0.43  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A


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## financial chat (21 September 2010)

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 21 Sep. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited fell by -5.26% last day from AUD 0.57 to AUD 0.54. . In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 14.89% over the past 2 weeks. Volume increased last day by 0,52 million shares, but on falling prices. This is may be an early warning and risk is increased a bit for the next couple of days. In total there were bought and sold 2,66 million million shares for approx. AUD 1,44 million.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 128.6% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.12 and AUD 1.49 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.48  Resistance 1:  AUD 0.55 
Support 2:  AUD 0.47  Resistance 2:  AUD 0.57 
Support 3:  AUD 0.43  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A


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## financial chat (21 September 2010)

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources hits year-high 5th time in one month and 12th time in three months
Exco Resources, Australia's 112th largest materials company by market capitalisation, hit a 52-week high of 59.50c during the day, but closed lower at 54.0c. In the last one month the stock has hit a new 52-week high five times and in the last three months twelve times, pointing to a significant uptrend. The stock price slid 3.0c (or 5.3%) to close at 54.0c, ending a two-day streak of rises. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which fell 12.2 points (or 0.3%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -5.0%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.2 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.5 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price soared 11.3% in the last month.
This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.8 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 4.5% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 6.8% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,334 stocks and 78 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 96 which means it is beating 96% of the market.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.3 25 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 42.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 40.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high twelve times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

Bearish Signals:
The price decreased 1.8% in the last week.
This has been exacerbated by robust volume of 2.4 times average for the week.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which fell 0.1% for the week, this represented a relative price decrease of 1.7% for the week.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 53.50c and a high of 59.50c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 11.2% was 6.9 times its average volatility of 1.6%. A price fall on high volatility is a bearish signal.

Moving average price (MAP) [with equal weightage to prices at close]
The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.92, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.92 just thrice suggesting a resistance level. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 40.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c, another bullish indicator.


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## financial chat (21 September 2010)

3rd highest closing high - all very impressive to me.

a new all time high of 59.5c

and whilst there was some selling, that is to be expected. there would be some holders who would be prepared to sell regardless of the near future prospects. 

Afterall, we have doubled in two months, but some charts are suggesting that we might double again in the next 3 months.


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## financial chat (23 September 2010)

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above Exponential Moving Average Price 12-day EMAP outperforms 26-day EMAP
Exco Resources, Australia's 109th largest materials company by market capitalisation, has strengthened above its trend. The MACD indicator (12 day EMA-26 day EMA) is positive, a bullish signal. In the past 26 days this indicator was positive for 23 days, suggesting further upside. The stock price advanced 3.50c (or 6.5%) to close at 57.0c, ending a two-day streak of losses. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 5.3 points (or 0.1%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 6.4%.


RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.4 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.6 for the Total Australian Market.



RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price surged 8.6% in the last week and soared 18.8% in the last month.
This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.0 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.6 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.6% for the week and 4.9% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 7.9% for the week and 13.8% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,292 stocks and 74 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 97 which means it is beating 97% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 19 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 43.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 41.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 29.0c.
The 200-day MAP has increased to 29.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high twelve times, pointing to a significant uptrend.



PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 53.50c and two-day high of 58.0c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 8.4% was 6.3 times its average volatility of 1.3%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.

Volume and turnover period
There were 815,017 shares worth $458,901 traded. The volume was 1.3 times average trading of 637,349 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 48.7% (or a turnover period of 2 years 18 days).

% Discount to high
The last price is at a discount of 4.2% to the 12-month high of 59.50c two-days ago on 21 Sep, 2010.


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## financial chat (23 September 2010)

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 23 Sep. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 5.56% yesterday from AUD 0.54 to AUD 0.57 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 16.33% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 493 504 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 815 017 shares for approx. AUD 464 560.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 185.9% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.52 and AUD 1.66 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1:  AUD 0.48  Resistance 1:  AUD N/A 
Support 2:  AUD 0.47  Resistance 2:  AUD N/A 
Support 3:  AUD 0.43  Resistance 3:  AUD N/A


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## wagonredwheels (26 September 2010)

Jako,
been doing some research and can't get through to you on your e-mail
Cheers
Redwheels


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## financial chat (30 September 2010)

StockAnalysis have just lifted their valuation target to 92 cps. So they would have been happy to see some stock become available for sale, so that their clients could avail themselves of the opportunity.

Exco has been a long-time StockAnalysis favourite and they are particularly pleased as to how well the White Dam gold project is progressing. They note how the cash flow is increasing the freedom for EXS to explore the options for the Cloncurry project.

As StockAnalysis state, Exco is now focused on expanding nearby gold mineralisation in South Australia so that it can extend mine life beyond 3 years, while moving towards an investment decision at its Cloncurry copper project. StockAnalysis expects that the White Dam gold project will run until at least early 2014, with potential for a follow-on copper/gold project likely, once the gold rich oxide cap is removed.

When you consider that in addition to the cash flow being generated at White Dam, that there are parties lining up to assist with the development at Cloncurry, any finance concerns that might have existed some time ago, look to have now disappeared.


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## financial chat (30 September 2010)

We now know that JP Morgan has been a seller in recent days, and quite possibly were selling some more yesterday afternoon. I did take a few from the sellers, but not as many as I should have.

I suspect it may be a quarterly balance of portfolio performance; they may have needed to book some profits. If so the sell-off is likely to be short-lived but still annoying.

One has to think that the selling was forced upon them by their mandates, because they would be aware that the clock is about 5 minutes to midnight, from the time when a very important decision (about moving to production one way or the other) is going to be made. Those that bought yesterday, might make some very quick profits.

Perhaps that crossing was the last of the parcel available for sale.

Now to see how much damage they have done - will it meet with much resistance to get back over 53c?


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## financial chat (6 October 2010)

October 5, 2010


This story makes EXS look very profitable.

Copper Will Trade at $11,000 in a Year, Goldman Says



Copper will trade at $11,000 a metric ton in a year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said as it raised price estimates because of swelling demand.

The forecast implies a 35 percent gain from the metals current price. The bank had predicted on Sept. 17 that copper would trade at $8,050 a ton in 12 months. Goldman today advised investors to buy the December 2011 contract as increasing demand leads to shortages of the metal.

Copper for three-month delivery traded on the London Metal Exchange jumped 23 percent in the third quarter, the most in a year, helped by falling stockpiles and a weaker dollar. LME inventories shrank by 17 percent in the period, and the U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks strength, slid 8.5 percent, the most since 2002.

Supply-demand deficits look set to grow on emerging- market strength and improving demand from developed economies, which we expect to significantly outpace supply growth, drawing down inventories and creating market shortages,analysts including London-based Jeffrey Currie said in the report. We don't believe that the market is fully pricing these shortages and the potential for demand rationing that lies ahead in 2011.


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## financial chat (6 October 2010)

Extracted comments from this morning notes from Shaw Stockbroking:

Exco Resources

Value Compelling

Target 80c

Spot valuation is $1.60

EXS recently announced impressive drill results from Salebury ? we anticipate growth in resources ? several rigs active in the area ? we believe that value of the ground is further indicated by the recent results.

We still believe that a deal on the CCP with one of the active players in the area is highly probable and could lead to a substantial re-rating of EXS. Our valuation of 81cps is based on relatively conservative price forecast (Cu @ US$2.61 vs spot @ US$3.50 lb and gold at 10% below spot for the next 2 years US$850 long term).


buying pattern this morning suggests to me that it is extremely similar to what it was like when Shaws were very active in the stock previously.


with copper currently sitting at US$3.73 and gold at US$1343, their valuation for EXS is way too conservative.


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## financial chat (6 October 2010)

This is all coming together nicely for EXS as they sit down at the boardroom table to determine which offer for the Cloncurry project gives holders the best outcome.

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFLDE6940UJ20101005

METALS-Copper at two-year high on monetary easing bets
Tue Oct 5, 2010 5:08pm GMT


By Marie-Louise Gumuchian and Melanie Burton

LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Copper hit its highest in more than two years on Tuesday, as Japan unexpectedly lowered interest rates, raising expectations of further easing in other major economies, and the dollar dropped against the euro.

Benchmark copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange rallied to $8,229 a tonne, the highest since late July 2008, from a close of $8,064 on Monday. The metal used in power and construction closed at $8,175.

"Everything is just exploding on the upside. The new event really overnight was the BOJ saying it was going to ...ease monetary conditions. We've obviously also had the Fed say it's going to embark on new easing measures - who's next?" said analyst Robin Bhar of Credit Agricole. Tin rose to a new all-time high at $26,010 a tonne on persistent supply worries from top exporter Indonesia while zinc, lead and nickel and aluminium touched their highest in five months.

"Further dollar weakness is certainly driving things and that is really a response to (a) strengthening euro," Daniel Brebner, analyst at Deutsche Bank, said. "The market is reacting to further monetary accommodation out of Japan.

"We've seen very strong pricing in the precious metals and there's a bit of a sympathetic move on the base metals complex because they do react to macroeconomic policy."

The Bank of Japan pledged to pump more funds into the struggling economy and keep interest rates virtually at zero, surprising markets and stealing a march on the Federal Reserve in providing a fresh dose of economic stimulus.

The euro jumped against the dollar on reported Asian buying, pushing the greenback to an 8-1/2 month trade-weighted low.

Metals tend to benefit as the dollar falls, because a weaker dollar makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies.

In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management said its U.S. monthly non-manufacuring business activity index hit its lowest level since January.

Investors will also look out for a key jobs report later this week for further clues on the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy.

If the economic data remains lacklustre, it will likely reinforce bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on more monetary easing, which should erode dollar values further and bolster the appeal of metals as a hedge against inflation.


SUPPLY TIGHTNESS
Market balances in copper have been tightening for many months, with stocks in LME warehouses tumbling more than 30 percent since the middle of February. Tuesday's data showed LME stocks down 350 tonnes to 374,100 tonnes.

Zinc closed near five-month highs of $2,313, at $2,312, up 3.7 percent from its $2,230 at the close on Monday. Among other metals, aluminium hit $2,388.75 a tonne, its most expensive since mid-April, before finishing at $2,380 a tonne, up from $2,363.

Battery material lead rallied to $2,340, its highest since April 27, and wound up at $2,311 from $2,277, while stainless steel ingredient nickel ended at $24,700 versus $24,140 after hitting $24,800 a tonne, its highest since early May.

Tin registered a four percent rise to finish at $25,900, as against $24,900 at the close on Monday. Indonesia's refined tin output may fall nearly 6 percent this year as heavy rains hit mining and more easily mined onshore reserves are being depleted, an analyst at the International Tin Research Institute said.


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## financial chat (6 October 2010)

All bullish signals tonight!

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources increases 2.0% on high volume rising for a second consecutive day, a two day rise of 6.2%

Exco Resources rose 1.0c (or 2.0%) on high volume to close at 51.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 77.4 points (or 1.7%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 0.3%. The stock rose for a second day on Wednesday bringing its two-day rise to 3.0c or 6.2%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.1 lower than average of 3.9 for the Materials sector.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price added 3.0% in the last week and increased 2.0% in the last month.
This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.2 times average for the week and 1.4 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.9% for the week, this represented a relative price increase of 2.1% for the week.
In the Australian market of 1,326 stocks and 73 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 94 which means it is beating 94% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.2, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.2 44 times suggesting further upside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 46.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 30.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high twelve times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 50.50c and five-day high of 53.0c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.

Moving average price (MAP) [with equal weightage to prices at close]
The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.69, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.69 33 times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 46.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 30.0c, another bullish indicator.

Exponential Moving Average Price (EMAP) [with higher weightage to recent prices]
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.2, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.2 44 times suggesting further upside.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

Relativities
Today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 67. In the Australian market of 1,326 stocks and 73 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 94 which means it is outperforming 94% of the market. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.


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## financial chat (27 October 2010)

Exco has been awarded 2010 Queensland Explorer of the Year this evening in Brisbane.


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## mr. jeff (7 November 2010)

financial chat said:


> Exco has been awarded 2010 Queensland Explorer of the Year this evening in Brisbane.




also re comments on "outstanding breakout alert" thread, EXS have a good presentation which has done the rounds of the latest "Mining 2010 Resources Convention Presentation" and I assume there will continue to be support of their SP from the IVA proximity and accrual of shares related to this....I have been accumulating heavily as this seems like a much lower risk buy of a solid producing company with good prospects and with a bit of takeover support thrown in. Not to mention that they play with the 2 most popular (currently) metals around and looking for more with 3 drill rigs.

note also this announcement:


			
				ASX release said:
			
		

> 4 November 2010
> Market Release (via electronic lodgement)
> EXPLORATION UPDATE
> FURTHER POSITIVE RESULTS AT SALEBURY & FISHER CREEK
> ...


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## Jako (8 November 2010)

I agree mr. jeff

Exco is well managed & with the cashflow from White Dam (Gold Project) now flowing, they can do all the drilling they want.
This company has often had a tight cash flow in the past, this may now be over.
The decision on the CCP should come by years end & will set the business up to have a good cash flow from both Gold & Copper.

cheers


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## financial chat (9 November 2010)

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above 50 day Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources has strengthened above its trend. The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator.

In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 six times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 46.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator. The stock advanced for a fifth consecutive day on Tuesday, its longest such streak since 23 Aug, 2010. The stock price climbed 3.0c (or 5.2%) to close at 61.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which fell 34.5 points (or 0.7%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 5.9%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.7 higher than average of 2.8 for the Total Australian Market and 2.8 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bullish Signals:- The price soared 17.3% in the last week.
This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.4 times average for the week.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.0% for the week and 1.7% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 16.3% for the week and 19.1% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,344 stocks and 68 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 95 which means it is beating 95% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.4, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.4 six times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 46.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 52.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 34.0c.
The 200-day MAP has increased to 34.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high fourteen times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 58.50c and a high of 62.50c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 6.8% was 4.1 times its average volatility of 1.7%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.

Volume and turnover period
There were 974,892 shares worth $587,101 traded. The volume was 1.5 times average trading of 652,940 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 49.98% (or a turnover period of 2 years ).

% Discount to high
The last price is at a discount of 2.4% to the 12-month high of 62.50c.

Volume weighted price (VWP)
The price is at a premium of 13.1% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of 54.0c. Given that this premium has been under 13.1% ninety-four times and over 13.1% twenty-seven times in the last year, the downside:upside probability is estimated at 94:27 or 3.5:1.

Beta is 3.4.


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## financial chat (9 November 2010)

from Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 9 Nov. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 5.17% yesterday from AUD 0.58 to AUD 0.61, and has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and a day or two with fall should be expected. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 17.31% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 71 883 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 974 892 shares for approx. AUD 594 684.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 22.9% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.64 and AUD 0.79 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD N/A 
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD N/A 
Support 3: AUD 0.47 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


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## financial chat (9 November 2010)

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Another buy call.

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.


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## financial chat (11 November 2010)

Exco Resources hits year-high 15th time in three months

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf


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## financial chat (11 November 2010)

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages
Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands
EXS.AX has closed below upper band by 2.7%. Bollinger Bands are 64% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to EXS.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 1 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.


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## financial chat (11 November 2010)

From Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 11 Nov. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 3.33% yesterday from AUD 0.60 to AUD 0.62 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 16.98% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day by -55 126 shares and in total there was bought and sold 393 037 shares for approx. AUD 243 683. You should note that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trendline at AUD 0.64 will in first place indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 21.6% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.63 and AUD 0.78 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD N/A 
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD N/A 
Support 3: AUD 0.47 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


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## financial chat (19 November 2010)

From Shaws research this morning:
EXCO RESOURCES (EXS) @ $0.55 ST: Buy 

* Recent drilling results point to significant growth potential in resources at Cloncurry. 
* Eight Mile Creek showing potential for a moderate tonnage IOCG deposit. 
* Decision on development progress regarding partnership arrangements imminent. 
* Recommendation remains BUY, price target A$0.80ps. 

EXS continue to announce encouraging drilling results at the CCP and we anticipate significant growth of the existing resource of 61Mt to 100Mt. This would place the resource well into the regionally significant category, and comparable to IVA's resources such as Mt Dore, however with better grade.

MD, Michael Anderson yesterday at the AGM remarked that a decision on development of Cloncurry is imminent. We have previously said the logic for an off-take deal with the Ernest Henry mine is compelling for both parties, however we remain uncertain of Xstrata's willingness to deal, and believe it may take a competitive offer from either IVA or a proposal from SinTang to provide a catalyst for the project/stock to be put in play. Either way, when you consider out spot valuation of A$1.60 ps and the A$1.3b market capitalization of IVA, there is plenty of leverage and potential synergy available for IVA shareholders. We believe that the patience shown by EXS shareholders will be rewarded shortly.


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## mr. jeff (19 November 2010)

financial chat said:


> From Shaws research this morning:
> EXCO RESOURCES (EXS) @ $0.55 ST: Buy
> 
> * Recent drilling results point to significant growth potential in resources at Cloncurry.
> ...




Well that is fantastic. It sounds overly optimistic: $1.60 ps !
Nevertheless it would be quite satisfying. The news has been reasonable lately, I wonder if IVA would move earlier or pull an OZL on them and just watch the price get out of reach ? Perhaps OZL will buy a 20% stake?!

I guess that report explains the jump in sp today up 6% after lunch...
Good luck everyone, I have a lot of things crossed that this comes off, I have never had 3 positions on one stock before!


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## GumbyLearner (19 November 2010)

$1.60ps sounds a little unrealistic from what I can see.

Does EXS have anywhere near the infrastructure and management knowhow of the IVA team? Seems a bit assumptive if you factor in what IVA have in the Cloncurry region. eg. Merlin, Little Wizard, Elliot, Dore etc... 

Where would EXS process their ore? Osborne? 

IVA already holds 22.8%. So they are certainly in the box seat on any deals IMO

DYOR


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## financial chat (21 November 2010)

I think that the 1.60 valuation is before applying a discount.

Re where the ore will be processed.  That is the big question that is yet to be answered.  Will it be through Xstrata, or will it be through a new plant?  Only time will tell.  but it won't be long to find out and then we will see the rerating.

The EXS team are first rate, and would match any other team in the area.


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## financial chat (24 November 2010)

Update from Fox Davies

BUY
Price: A$0.59
Target Price: A$0.85

Market Cap (M): A$204.4
EV (M): A$194.4

Event
Exco has announced that it has today made the last repayment in respect of the gold loan which was provided by Barclays Capital PLC to finance Exco?s share of the development cost of the White Dam Gold Production Joint Venture in South Australia.

Comment
Repayment has been completed thirteen months after project commencement and only seven months after first production. A combination of better than expected production rates and higher gold prices has allowed the loan to be paid off two months before the first of three scheduled part-delivery dates.

This is excellent news for EXCO as it is now essentially unencumbered and can look forward to benefitting from the high gold prices now pertaining. Further, the JV partners are currently completing an exploration and resource development programme for the nearby Vertigo deposit and White Dam North, White Dam South and Ambush prospects with the objective of extending the life of the mine and increasing life of mine production. In addition to these resources, extensions to the current pit are also being investigated. 

Recommendation
We retain the Buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of A$0.85/share. 



http://www.uploadlibrary.com/foxdavies/ExcoFlashnote23Nov2010.pdf


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## mr. jeff (24 November 2010)

hi financial chat,

Re. FD Capital research note;

Of course it's easy to say that they are right when you hold, but it seems that at the moment EXS are going through a good transition. Will be interesting to see whether they start generating more interest now that they are building a positive cash position or whether they will be sold off due to the lack of exploratory excitement. (In spite of still drilling)

See chart, note a bad market day yesterday, EXS up 0.5 c. There seems to be a slight reduction in volume in the last 2 months. volume yesterday 1M. MACD crossing to the upside currently. Anyone have further analysis?


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## financial chat (7 December 2010)

Minesite Article

News
December 02, 2010

Exco Resources Finds Favour With The Banks And The Chinese, But The Views Of Near-Neighbour Xstrata Remain A Mystery
By Alastair Ford



It’s no wonder Exco’s Michael Anderson and Geoff Laing always go out for dinner with their bankers at Barclays Capital whenever they come through London – the combination of Barclays finance and Exco’s White Dam gold project has proved so successful that you almost have to pinch yourself when you read the numbers. For starters, there’s the cash that’s now coming in. Exco currently has about A$11.5 million in the bank. But according to Michael Anderson, that sum should have risen to around A$60 million by this time next year.
That’s not a bad result for a small-scale gold project that’s not even Exco’s main asset. More to the point, though, as far as the bankers are concerned, all the project debt has now been paid off – and in double quick time. The US$16 million White Dam financing was put together back in the early part of 2009, when the world was an even more miserable place to be in economically than it is now, but at a time too when the gold price was strong. So it made sense for Barclays to be looking at gold deals, however small. Still it’s not every day that you put up financing for a gold mine that ends up getting paid off in full within thirteen months, just seven months after first production, and before the first mandatory payment was even due.

Certainly such a result is worth a celebratory dinner, or two. “From start to finish, it’s hard to see how White Dam could have gone any better for us”, says Michael Anderson. At the last official production update, which was released back in September, the company stated that production rates were running 30 per cent ahead of target, while operating costs of less than A$600 per ounce and an average sale price of over A$1,380 per ounce meant that margins were “very healthy”. At that stage the company reckoned it was on track to repay the Barclays loan by the first quarter of next year.

At some stage Exco will stop being able to surprise shareholders with good news, but the recent strong run of news may have a little way to go yet. The success of White Dam has all sorts of implications for the longer term. One is that if and when Exco needs to borrow money again, it’ll have a decent track record. “It’s a fantastic thing to have on Exco’s CV, for the next time we go in front of a credit committee”, says Michael Anderson. For the more immediate term, though, with White Dam running ahead of expectations, and the company now debt free, the focus can once again shift back to Exco’s main project, the Cloncurry copper project in Queensland.

Exactly how development will proceed at Cloncurry is currently the subject of delicate negotiation, and has been for some time. And it’s because the future of Cloncurry is still very much in the balance that getting White Dam right was so important. With a cash pile that’s set to increase in value almost by a factor of five over the next 12 months, there’s no likelihood of Exco being boxed into a corner by a bigger, nastier potential partner. Funding squeeze? – not with White Dam throwing off cash merrily, the company’s bankers well and truly satisfied over the port and cheese and the end of a tasty meal, and the gold price heading back towards US$1,400.

Still, if Exco’s short-to-medium term position is strengthened by the White Dam production, it does still have to get a deal done at Cloncurry. This, says Michael Anderson, is “imminent”. Cloncurry is a good-looking property in its own right, given that it boasts a resource of 55.7 million tonnes of ore containing 472,000 tonnes of copper and 394,000 ounces of gold. What makes it even more of an intriguing proposition, though, is its proximity to the famous Ernest Henry mine, which is operated by Xstrata. Xstrata’s processing facilities at Ernest Henry look tailor-made to treat the Cloncurry ore, and are likely to be significantly under-utilised now that the Ernest Henry open pit is virtually mined out.

Xstrata, though, is being rather coy about its position on whether or not it’s interested in the Cloncurry ore, at least in public. But it had better make up its mind one way or the other fairly soon, because Exco has been cracking on with pit design and environmental work, and is unlikely to hold off the design and costing of a plant at Cloncurry much longer. Geoff Laing speaks abstractly of the phenomenal growth that he’s witnessed on recent trips to China. Chinese growth is, of course, part of the rationale for buying into a copper story, but Geoff’s not been to China merely to form a view on the global economic outlook. As has happened with so many other Australian companies, a Chinese partner may very well come in and make the running at Cloncurry.

“We expect a little bit of competitive tension to emerge”, says Michael.  “But someone has got to make the first move”. The hope among investors is that it’ll be Xstrata. But if it isn’t, Exco is already gearing up with alternative development plans. Because make no mistake, the Chinese interest is very real. “The interest is absolutely there”, says Michael. “They want o come and work on our pipeline. They want to come in, on the register, and on a project basis.” With the copper price riding so high, now is the time.


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## financial chat (7 December 2010)

From Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 7 Dec. 2010]: 
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 7.27% yesterday from AUD 0.55 to AUD 0.59 The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 3.51% for the last 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,74 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,41 million shares for approx. AUD 834 006.

3 MONTH TREND 
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 12.3% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.60 and AUD 0.72 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s 
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD 0.60 
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD 0.61 
Support 3: AUD 0.51 Resistance 3: AUD 0.62 



http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Short term rating 5 out of 5

Exco Resources strengthens above 50-day Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources has strengthened above its trend. The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.1 22 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 53.85c. An increase is another bullish indicator. The stock price jumped 4.0c (or 7.3%) to close at 59.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 36.6 points (or 0.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 6.5%.



http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.


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## grandia3 (20 January 2011)

seems that this topic is a bit outdated

for those on the same boat, there's a new analyst coverage regarding exco dated 17 January 2011
http://www.excoresources.com.au/DownloadAsset.ashx?aid=7bf4001f-a515-4977-ad08-cb00bf84f9ed


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## financial chat (14 February 2011)

Resistance point smashed now.


From Getagraph.com
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: 
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 11 Feb. 2011]: 

Exco Resources Limited fell by -3.13% last day from AUD 0.64 to AUD 0.62. . In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 14.81% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -40 560 shares and in total there was bought and sold 403 487 shares for approx. AUD 250 162.


3 MONTH TREND 

Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and horizontal trend up. Breaks like this is often followed by swift and strong movements, and any correction down to the breakline at approx. AUD 0.60 is considered to be a "second chance" to hit a potential runner. It is, however, important that volume does follow the price as false breaks may appear and it may move back into the horizontal trend. Based on the rectangle-formation theory the stock is predicted to reach AUD 0.70 sometime during the next 3 months. 


Support/Resistance |s 

Support 1: AUD 0.61 Resistance 1: AUD 0.63 

Support 2: AUD 0.59 Resistance 2: AUD 0.64 

Support 3: AUD 0.54 Resistance 3: AUD N/A


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## mr. jeff (31 May 2011)

A bit of commotion around EXS and their neighbours with a bid for the copper assets in Cloncurry. $175M for the ground I believe, with IVA wanting a capital return to the tune of 100M (as they are a 20% shareholder (plus creep?)) and EXS talking about spending the rest on drill bits. 
Further info in the AFR today, discussing the potential takeover from IVA before 30th June. Looks like EXS will have some decent upside until then in its SP. 

Good luck to all holders, lets see where this takes us.


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## My Mate Said (8 March 2012)

hi not much chat on tis one.. and ages since last post..what do people think as to why it is not moving ? it is sittting at its ....what do you call it ? NAV and no-one buying.it  has had a great report since the the big payback and the copper more that thought  whta going on?


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## mr. jeff (9 March 2012)

My Mate Said said:


> hi not much chat on tis one.. and ages since last post..what do people think as to why it is not moving ? it is sittting at its ....what do you call it ? NAV and no-one buying.it  has had a great report since the the big payback and the copper more that thought  whta going on?




I sold out when the asset takeover was announced and haven't looked since as it was ranging until the capital return. Now I don't know what the prospects are looking like....perhaps check it out and let us know - they must have released a report since late last year ?


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## Bibimbap (28 March 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> I sold out when the asset takeover was announced and haven't looked since as it was ranging until the capital return. Now I don't know what the prospects are looking like....perhaps check it out and let us know - they must have released a report since late last year ?




Price seems to be downwards since the dividend return/capital return ... reached it's lowest price of 17.5 cents in the past 2 days... 
?worth buying now for upside potential
Results seem ok, and seems to be finding more resources...


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## springhill (25 July 2012)

*MC - $55m*
SP - 15.5c
Shares - 356m
Options - 11m
*Cash - $58m

**Northwest Queensland Projects*
Exploration
• Drilling on new regional targets (tier one potential) has commenced and three drill rigs are currently in operation on the company’s tenements.
• Drilling at Wallace South is in progress. Results from initial phases will be reported separately once finalised.
• Drilling is in progress at the Turpentine Deposit targeting down dip extensions to the current resource.

Resource Development
• Exco continues to de-risk and add value to two wholly owned projects, the Mt Colin Underground Project and the Kangaroo Rat Open Pit Project.
• A 3,000m diamond drilling programme at Mount Colin commenced towards the end of the quarter. A resource update will be completed once results from drilling have been received.
• Ten infill diamond drill holes for approximately 700m were completed at Kangaroo Rat during the quarter. A resource update is expected to be completed by September 2012.
*
White Dam Gold Project, South Australia*
• Gold production Joint venture production for the quarter at 4,437 ounces (100%) was down 1,146 ounces from the previous quarter. The expected run down of Hannaford pit production was offset by the start of production from Vertigo ore. Leaching continues with recovery levels continuing to exceed initial predictions.
• Vertigo development and exploration: Mining of the Vertigo deposit was completed in early May. Production will continue until the December quarter. The joint venture partners continue to explore for other opportunities in the Drew Hill area.
• Cash flow: Exco received $3.4m in revenues for the three months at an average price of A$1,588/oz. Unit cash operating costs were slightly lower than the previous quarter as expected with the cessation of mining activities at Vertigo. Operating margins continue to be healthy.

*Corporate*
• Board Changes: On 3 July 2012 the board announced the resignation as a non-executive director of Ivanhoe Australia’s nominated representative, Mr Peter Reeve. Mr Mike Spreadborough, currently COO of Ivanhoe Australia has been nominated to replace Mr Reeve.
• Great Australia Royalty: On 19 July 2012 the Company informed the market that CopperChem Ltd was disputing the Company's entitlement to the Great Australia Royalty under the 2009 Alliance Agreement. Exco intends to initiate discussions with CopperChem with a view to resolving the matter as soon as possible.

What is the deal here? Cash in excess of its MC.
Gold production is expected to continue until the December Quarter 2012. Is there anything beyond this?


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## springhill (6 August 2012)

*QUEENSLAND EXPLORATION UPDATE*
Drilling at Wallace South confirms significant mineralisation

•Diamond Drill hole WSDD002 has intersected significant gold mineralisation including:
−40m @ 2.93 g/t Au from 150m,
−Including 17m @ 5.95 g/t Au from 150m
−And 8m @ 1.68 g/t Au from 176m.
•Results from the four recently completed diamond holes will be incorporated into the resource model to enable targeting of possible additional supergene and primary mineralisation.


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## pixel (6 August 2012)

springhill said:


> *QUEENSLAND EXPLORATION UPDATE*
> Drilling at Wallace South confirms significant mineralisation
> 
> •Diamond Drill hole WSDD002 has intersected significant gold mineralisation including:
> ...




Promising results giving me hope that I didn't keep them in vain.
This is about the break-even level after last year's capital return. Any move North would be a bonus for me.


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## springhill (6 August 2012)

What was your motive for original purchase pixel, and how long ago? Has that original purchase criteria changed over time?


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## Bibimbap (7 August 2012)

Ivanhoe mines n Sol pattersons have a significant holding in EXS.


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## pixel (7 August 2012)

springhill said:


> What was your motive for original purchase pixel, and how long ago? Has that original purchase criteria changed over time?




As to when and why, see the weekly chart:





Yes, I've traded some in 2010 and 2011, but accepted the cap return and dividend, which allowed me to hold my current position. While, from a "had I sold at the very top"-perspective, that position is currently 3c under water, I am taking the view that a team that delivered a multi-bagger once, can do so again.


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## mr. jeff (8 August 2012)

The results are good but nowhere near exciting yet and not much to create great excitement. I expect that many rode EXS  into the IVA action and then moved on to more prospective companies. Management did very well and have shown skill, but now there is no easy gold and proximal copper things have changed. Perhaps for the better, but the chart shows that most of the larger people have moved on.


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## Bibimbap (23 August 2012)

Take over bid by Sol Pats today at 19cents.

IVA has sold its shares to Sol Pats...


still below my cost though ... crappy price.


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## pixel (24 August 2012)

Bibimbap said:


> Take over bid by Sol Pats today at 19cents.
> 
> IVA has sold its shares to Sol Pats...
> 
> still below my cost though ... crappy price.




Same thoughts here;
and then I saw the Board came out with a "take no action" advice. Somewhat more comforting.

A friend reckons Sol simply has to make this offer because they hold over 20% - but they don't really want any more than a seat on the board and a piece of the action. In any case, the 19c bid is ludicrous when we look at the cash the guys have in the bank, plus royalties rolling in...

To me, all of that is funnymental - the chart tells me trading went already well above those 19c, so it's unlikely it'll succeed. Let's just hope the board doesn't waste any money on a defense - there shouldn't even be the need for an "independent valuation" to find out that the offer is neither fair nor reasonable.


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## springhill (7 September 2012)

*MOUNT COLIN DRILLING UPDATE
New drilling intersects higher grade and thicker zones of copper in deepest holes.*

HIGHLIGHTS
•Results for two extensional and three infill diamond drill holes received:
•EMCDD051: 9m @ 1.67% Cu & 0.18 g/t Au from 372m (5.6m true width)
•EMCDD052: 22m @ 2.27% Cu & 0.25 g/t Au from 366m (15.5m true width)
•EMCDD053: 8m @ 2.04% Cu & 0.27 g/t Au from 246m (5.9m true width)
                 6m @ 1.08% Cu & 0.18 g/t Au from 257m (4.4m true width)
•EMCDD054: 14m @ 2.50% Cu & 0.18 g/t Au from 261m (9.7m true width)
•EMCDD056: 15m @ 5.78% Cu & 0.53 g/t Au from 308m (9.0m true width)
                  Including 6m @ 11.29% Cu & 0.79 g/t Au from 310m (3.6 true width)
•Mount Colin deposit remains open at depth – further down dip drilling is in progress.

Buy v sell depth of nearly 11:1


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