# PAV Technical Analysis and Trades



## pavilion103 (14 June 2022)

Hello all,
Many of you would not know me.
I was very active on this forum around 2011-2014.
I traded the FTSE Futures.
In 2015 I experienced a chronic illness (Lyme Disease and CFS).
This left me mainly housebound, unable to look at electronic screens.

I never thought I would trade again.
After the COVID crash I ventured into some investing (a handful of stocks including NAB @$15) and entered an Oil ETF (OOO) @ $2.90.
I have since exited the ETF at $6 (50%) and $9 (50%). I sold all my stock, including NAB @ $31.

*In this thread I will post technical analysis from time to time, with various thoughts* (just my )

I recently decided to place some medium term positions on ETFs to making money shorting the markets.
BBUS and BBOZ.
I entered on 6/6/22 after the push up from the lows.

I am holding two for the medium term and just about to exit a position today on a short term one.

Rather than posting the BBUZ and BBOZ charts I will post ASX200 and DOW. This will give an idea of the markets at large.


I will post charts and do analysis from time to time.
Feel free to join in the discussion


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## pavilion103 (14 June 2022)

This is my exit.
Although there was no signs of a bottom, my intention was to exit around the previous lows.
With such a sharp move down, I am happy to take such a decent profit with such a small initial risk.
FED meeting this week too. Lots of volatility. Just want to bank that one, and hold the medium term ones.

DOW Chart below.


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## pavilion103 (14 June 2022)

In future posts I will include WHY I entered where I did, and what I look for. 

I won't post all the time due to still managing my energies with my illness, but I will do my best. 

I hope this thread is helpful. 

Matt


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## pavilion103 (16 June 2022)

Here are a couple more trades. 
After the move down, I'm taking a long position on the US500 cash (A$1) CFD and the Australian 200 Cash (A$1) CFD. 
8 contracts on each = $8 per 1 point move. 

These are the daily charts below. 
I would consider it a reasonably aggressive move. 
It's just below the previous lows from May on the US chart, and a bit lower on the AUS. 
After a sharp move down I'm looking for a good RR long in the short term. 
A few bars have held at this level so far. 

If it moves in my favor I will look to get my stop to B/E (breakeven) as soon as I can, and reassess the trade each day. 

My main goal is not to be right... it is to get into good RR positions, so as to build a positive expectancy over time. 
I don't mind losses, as long as the trade fits my criteria and is in a good RR position.


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## pavilion103 (16 June 2022)

I ended up closing out for -$200.

Not looking strong at this level.


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## DaveTrade (16 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Here are a couple more trades.
> After the move down, I'm taking a long position on the US500 cash (A$1) CFD and the Australian 200 Cash (A$1) CFD.
> 8 contracts on each = $8 per 1 point move.
> 
> ...




Matt what does 'RR' stand for? It's used a lot in this post but I can't see where you have defined it, maybe It's there and I missed it or maybe it's a term well used in your circle.


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## peter2 (16 June 2022)

RR = Reward for Risk, Risk:Reward.  Saves typing.


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## DaveTrade (16 June 2022)

peter2 said:


> RR = Reward for Risk, Risk:Reward.  Saves typing.




Thanks Peter.


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## pavilion103 (17 June 2022)

Given how insane this market is getting, I am not going to attempt to trade dips! I’m only going to short rallies!

The last long trades were a good lesson in risk management. I saw things turning quick yesterday and I just got out. -$200 is a great result given how someone holding longs could have been slaughtered had they not reacted.

My strategy will be to look for short entries in the first 15-60 mins of trading. The RR is enormous right now. Even 25% accuracy would result in massive profit!

We’ll see where things go from here.

I’m still in BBUS and BBOZ.
They are the ETF’s that are shorts magnified 2.5x those markets.

$20,000 +$20,000

On open today I will be up around $15,000 total from my entry on 6th June.

That will be a hold.


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## tech/a (17 June 2022)

Pav 

You noticed the turn
Why didn’t you reverse 
Your position?


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## pavilion103 (17 June 2022)

tech/a said:


> Pav
> 
> You noticed the turn
> Why didn’t you reverse
> Your position?



Very good question mate. I asked myself this!


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## pavilion103 (17 June 2022)

I just got in on the Aussie $200 ($1 spot CFD)

What I’m doing in this market is being aggressive at market open, or within the first 30 to 60 minutes. If I think it’s in a spot where it’s just going to drop I’m prepared to take a position, a small one. Here is the chart for the market this morning. I actually took this entry on the first one minute bar. It was a 10 point risk, $5 per point (5 contracts).

If that had failed, I would’ve looked the price to set up a bit further up and then taken a better set up for 10 contracts. I’m actually going to try to do this in conjunction with the daily chart in terms of identifying good spots to get in for a position that I might be able to hold. I’m planning to do this with the FTSE also. My aim is to build up contracts in good positions so that if this thing tanks I can ride a big wave with many contracts. I’m aware that this could and will cost me money that I could’ve cashed in on a shorter term move. But I’m really trying to take advantage of this rare opportunity with the way the market is at the moment. 

I also plan to do the same thing when this bottoms out eventually and I get back into the long side. I want to accumulate contracts. The small losses will be tiny in conjunction with any contract that I do manage to enter in strong spots that don’t get taken out by larger market moves. Depending on where the daily chart is at and how good or speculative any movies, will determine how many contracts I take. But I will not be betting the house on any one position.


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## tech/a (17 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Very good question mate. I asked myself this!




It's something I do myself when I see *overwhelming evidence* in a timeframe I'm trading
that challenges my bias. (Futures).

This could be and often is a very high volume and range spike in my direction (If I'm on the opposite side to a prevailing strong directional move) and an immediate reversal Back towards the prevailing strong direction.
Can also be a tight consolidation and then a convincing move in the Prevailing strong direction.


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## pavilion103 (17 June 2022)




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## pavilion103 (17 June 2022)

tech/a said:


> It's something I do myself when I see *overwhelming evidence* in a timeframe I'm trading
> that challenges my bias. (Futures).
> 
> This could be and often is a very high volume and range spike in my direction (If I'm on the opposite side to a prevailing strong directional move) and an immediate reversal Back towards the prevailing strong direction.
> Can also be a tight consolidation and then a convincing move in the Prevailing strong direction.



That’s the problem with any bias. But I think one good rule of thumb is that if the trade is not behaving as it should, then consider if the opposite trade is a good one. Much easier said than done when the mind is in a place of cognitive dissonance!

Huge volume, and tight consolidations are two things that you drilled into me, and two things that serve me very well.

I think my lesson from those trades yesterday is be very careful when trading against the market, particularly one that is moving ferociously. And if deciding to take a trade (in the opposite direction) after a market move, wait for sufficient confirmation. 
When trading IN the direction of the strong trend waiting for too much confirmation can pose the opposite problem.


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## pavilion103 (17 June 2022)

Stopped out of today’s


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## pavilion103 (18 June 2022)




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## pavilion103 (18 June 2022)

After spending a couple of days at the screen, I've realised that I don't want to be worrying about intra-day moves at the moment.
My goal is to try and accumulate some contracts, ready for a larger move if things completely crash.
I am going to turn my focus to the S&P500.
Because this is half the level of the FTSE and Aussie 200, I can get 2x the bang for my buck, with only half the margin requirement.

I will be analysing the bigger picture, from the daily chart, and then using the 4 hour mainly, in conjunction with the 1 hour, and possibly 15 min if I want to maximise the setup in a higher RR place.

The 4 hour chart is my preferred time-frame here and my intent is to short rallies. The better the position on the longer term chart, the more contracts I will be prepared to take. I might take a position with a stop 50-80 points away. 5 contracts for a good setup ($250-400 risk). 10 for a great setup ($500-800 risk).

On the 1 hour chart, I can take more aggressive entries with less risk per trade if there is a really good setup. (for example 15-40 point stops. $75-400 risk). 

In this market it is very much worth the risk. I want to wait for decent setups, but not be so selective that I risk missing the next down move.

I will continue to post my analysis.


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## barney (18 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I will continue to post my analysis.



Howdy @pavilion103 

Firstly welcome back.  I did wonder what had happened to you when you suddenly stopped posting "way back then"

I always remember you were super methodical about your trading so I expect any input you add to ASF will be greatly appreciated by many punters.

The main thing is your health has improved. All the best.


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## pavilion103 (18 June 2022)

barney said:


> Howdy @pavilion103
> 
> Firstly welcome back.  I did wonder what had happened to you when you suddenly stopped posting "way back then"
> 
> ...



I really appreciate that mate. Thank you. I find it weird when people remember me because I have been gone for so long. But I guess I did post many threads which live on.

I am no expert but I will certainly share many things that I have learned which have brought me success!


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## pavilion103 (21 June 2022)

So I've decided on a trading strategy that suits my preference to not spend hours a day in front of the screen. 

I am looking to use the daily chart (in conjunction with the 4 hour chart) to identify and attempt to enter positions as a trend is beginning or just under way. 

My goal is to trade in that direction and hold positions for a number of days to ride the trend up to my target level (support or resistance) or when I see signs that I should exit. 

This is a rough idea of the types of trends I am attempting to capture (FTSE daily chart below).

Of course, I will not be able to get on and off every trend as easily as I've marked up the chart below but I aim to capture what I can, which I think will be incredibly profitable. 

This allows me to place trades, be very hands off and achieve big R:R. 
Of course the risk is that I give back decent profits at times, which I believe is well worth the potential benefit (in the long run) of holding during a trend.


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## pavilion103 (21 June 2022)

KEY RULES:
- KNOW which way I want to trade prior to the session.
- KNOW the KEY LEVELS (support/resistance).
- Look to be aggressive where necessary at the open.
- Get on a trade in the first hour at the  high/low of the day.
- MOVE stop to BREAKEVEN ASAP (as soon as the chart allows it).
- Set and forget (profit limit order if necessary). Turn off computer and don't think about it.


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## pavilion103 (21 June 2022)

Today I entered on the FTSE (FTSE Cash A$1) CFD
Below is 3 min chart

I was very certain that I wanted to be long prior to the trade. 
First bar was a HUGE push down. 
I opened the 1 min chart in conjunction with the 3 min. 

The numbers below correspond to the numbers that I have marked up on the chart. 

1. I actually entered on the 1 min chart as it showed signs of the down bar halting. 
Enter- 7121, Stop - 7114 (7 point risk).
I was very aggressive because I knew that if this was the low of the day the RR would be MASSIVE!
Because it was so aggressive I only took 10 contracts (not the usual 20).

2. Price rose and pushed down to 7125. I strongly considered adding another 10 contracts @ 7127. 
It was a 13 point risk which I knew would be a good spot but I hesitated unfortunately.

3. Once this bar closed and price started pushing up, I moved stop to BE. Turned off platform. Will relax and enjoy the evening. Job done for tonight!

Of course there is a chance I could be stopped out but this is my process. 
Attempt to get in at the potential high/low of the day in the first 30-60mins, limit risk. Let it run...


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## pavilion103 (21 June 2022)

Target for the trend, on the daily and 4 hour chart would be around 7300. 
That would be 180 points, $1,800. That would be huge RR for the initial risk of $70. 
Had I taken the second position that would be 360 points, $3,600 for initial risk of $200. 
Of course this won't always come off, and will result in $0 many times but over time it will be an enormous positive expectancy.

I was strongly considering a long yesterday but was hesitant about the direction because the week before I had attempted longs on the S&P500 and ASX200, but they reversed and fell sharply (managed risk well for only $200 loss). 

This what psychology can do. 
I saw it all there yesterday. Could have easily claimed 100 points but a bad experience the week before was the reason I didn't enter. 

Now I DIDN'T enter all these BUT... Here is the potential (won't hit them all the times but many times I will).
Had yesterday been entered 20 contracts $7020, and IF (big IF) the trend hypothetically went up to 7300, then that's. 
Yesterday 280 points (20 contracts) $5,600. 
Today 180 points (had I taken 20) $3,600
Total $9,200 (not including any trades in the following days for potential additions. Although the later the entry in the trend the more risky, the less RR, and the better the opportunity has to be).
$9,200 for a risk of maybe $400. Not bad RR. 

Like I said, I didn't all these trades, AND, the chart could reverse any time to the downside, BUT this is my mindset in how I want to profit from the markets!!


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## pavilion103 (21 June 2022)

Even getting on one decent trade @10-20 contracts for any given trend of 200-300 points is a great result.
You could miss a number of opportunities (and be stopped out of a number of trades for a small loss) and still make big profit.

My goal is then to get comfortable with trading more contracts.
For example 50 contracts for a 200 point move = $10,000.
That could easily be achieved a few days/week at times WHEN the market is moving.
As long as losses are minimized and there's no overtrading, it's going to work very very well.


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## barney (21 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Even getting on one decent trade @10-20 contracts for any given trend of 200-300 points is a great result.
> You could miss a number of opportunities (and be stopped out of a number of trades for a small loss) and still make big profit.
> 
> My goal is then to get comfortable with trading more contracts.
> ...



I like the way you think Pav .....  

Just to state the obvious for anyone bedazzled by the potential gains;  

Taking large/multiple contracts of course requires a large/larger trading "bank"

With that in mind; each Punters trading bank should realistically be "X" amount (percentage) of their overall "wealth"

ie. Don't bet the house on a short time frame (unless you have a **** load of houses to risk, lol)

It seems obvious to seasoned traders, but the lure of great returns whilst ignoring the potential risks can cause life long consequences.

Some may suggest .... What gives me the right to "preach" such "condescending", I know better/holy joe talk? (not my intention btw)

Anyone who genuinely wants to know the answer to that is welcome to "private message" me


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## pavilion103 (21 June 2022)

barney said:


> I like the way you think Pav .....
> 
> Just to state the obvious for anyone bedazzled by the potential gains;
> 
> ...



Managing risk is very important. People should only take a risk that they are comfortable with and which is appropriate for their situation.

It never hurts to post the reminder that you have. There definitely is a lure of potential life changing gains which can make people act irrationally to try to achieve it.

I actually spent the best part of four years learning how to trade before I even put a dollar in the market. I’m not saying that everyone has to go to that extreme, but what I’m saying is that I understand the importance of getting one self prepared before they put their money on the line.


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## barney (21 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I actually spent the best part of four years learning how to trade before I even put a dollar in the market. I’m not saying that everyone has to go to that extreme, but what I’m saying is that I understand the importance of getting one self prepared before they put their money on the line.




100% Pav .... My previous comment was in no way directed at yourself.  Your methodology is something that new punters in particular should take note of!  

Looking forward to your next period of input on ASF.  Many will benefit I'm sure.


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## pavilion103 (22 June 2022)

Trade stopped at breakeven.
It got as high as 70 points up ($700).
I’m not fussed in the slightest. That’s a price I’m willing to pay to get on a decent trend (200-400 points) from time to time.

I’ll move my stop loss within the trend to lock in profit where appropriate. But only after a decent correction within the trend. 

A stop too tight will lock in some profit but will get taken out too easily. Defeats the purpose of the strategy!

My focus is on managing risk on entry and then getting stop to BE.


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## pavilion103 (22 June 2022)

I’m quite bearish overall at the moment for FTSE, ASX200, S&P500.

Price has trickled up over this past week and I’m looking for the next shorting opportunity.


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## DaveTrade (22 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I’m quite bearish overall at the moment for FTSE, ASX200, S&P500.
> 
> Price has trickled up over this past week and I’m looking for the next shorting opportunity.



 Short squeeze at moment, could go to the end of the week.


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## ducati916 (22 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I’m quite bearish overall at the moment for FTSE, ASX200, S&P500.
> 
> Price has trickled up over this past week and I’m looking for the next shorting opportunity.




Pav, nice thread.

I'll definitely follow along as I trade the US.

Echo @DaveTrade, SPY is bouncing currently. Therefore new short positions are potentially in the wind currently until the trend re-establishes itself.

jog on
duc


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## pavilion103 (22 June 2022)

This is something I'm grappling with...
I'm uncertain how aggressive or patient to be. 
I want a good setup. I also am a bit worried about missing if it does push straight down. 
Either way I need to manage risk!

Jerome Powell testifies 9:30am Wednesday morning US time. 
Will be interesting to see his tone, and any potential impact on markets!


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## bk1 (22 June 2022)

US futures just turned bearish for the open, and the Aussie market has turned over.


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## pavilion103 (23 June 2022)

ASX200. 
I'm new to attempting these types of trades on a larger time frame but I'm seeing how it works. 

I looked for an intraday entry as price pushed up to 6550. 10 contracts x 35 point risk = $350 risk. 

The high from Tues 21 June is 6583. 

This has been rejected a couple of times on the 1 hour chart. 

I feel like this is the earliest spot to take an aggressive trade to the downside. 

What do you think? Too risk? or worth it for the RR?


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## tech/a (23 June 2022)

Pav

Try not to trade noise.
Not every day is a trading day on the Futs in the timeframe your trading.
Look for opportunities out of consolidation.


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## pavilion103 (23 June 2022)

tech/a said:


> Pav
> 
> Try not to trade noise.
> Not every day is a trading day on the Futs in the timeframe your trading.
> Look for opportunities out of consolidation.



Yeh I’m finding that it’s easy to overtrade!

I’m trying to find potential short entries at the top of these consolidations so that it’s in the best spot not to get taken out! 

Definitely fear of missing out is my biggest enemy at the moment. Need to get on top of that.


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

Trying to get on a short in case this market collapses downward. 
Past few days uneventful. 
Yesterday ASX200 - breakeven (was 30-40 points in my favor)
FTSE - breakeven (was 30-40 points in my favor)

All with good setups. 
Didn't have time to post the charts.


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

I'm on this trade now.


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

Here is the entry. Can't get the chart to fill the screen properly to give a better perspective. But you get the picture. 
I anticipated potential for a down move. 
10 contracts @6683 (stop 6691).

Of course wish I took double position! Did this with FTSE yesterday for B/E in the end.


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

Was I not playing for a larger time frame down move, I would have lifted at 6575 for 108 points ($1,080).

But I'm sticking with the strategy for now because I think there is potential for a crash. Can I guarantee it? NO


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

FTSE has already moved a lot before the open but I am looking for a short. 
I took only 5 contracts @ Position 1 on the chart. 
I took an additional 5 contracts @ Position 2 on the chart. 

Much wider setup, so I took caution. ENTRY 7184 and 7185, STOPS both @ 7209. 
Max risk 49 points x 5 contracts = $245.


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

Moved stop to 7902. 
14 points saved. 
Max risk now 35 points = $165


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

Stop moved 7195


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

Stopped out. 
loss 10x5, 11x5
$105 loss.


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## pavilion103 (30 June 2022)

I'm thinking I should have just left the initial stop. It's good to manage risk and try to get a trade to B/E but I think I didn't give enough room for the initial trade to still "make sense." Leaving it above the high of the day probably would have been the best move. 

I got back in a bit later on for only 5 contracts. 14 point risk = $70 risk. 
I put the stop right to the high of the day. This meant more points risk which is why I took a 1/2 position of only 5 contracts. 

This has been trading in a range all session. 
I don't know which way it will eventually break but if it breaks down I will be happy!


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Today's trade on AUSSIE 200 CASH (A$1). 
This is around a resistance level on the 4 hour chart. 
I'm using that in conjunction with the intraday chart to identify good entries.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

At some stage I want to post the types of setups that I look for. This was a failed two bar consolidation at resistance. Hopefully I get the chance to show exactly what I look for. I have about 3 types of long setups and 3 types of short setups. The bulk of my trades come from two of those setups for each long and short.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Initial stop moved to BE. 
Annoyed to miss the other trade but I can’t be at the screen for everything.


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## Haxorus (4 July 2022)

Do you reckon the RBA news coming tomorrow will have an impact such towards bbus or bboz etc?


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Haxorus said:


> Do you reckon the RBA news coming tomorrow will have an impact such towards bbus or bboz etc?



I’m waiting to see…


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## Haxorus (4 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I’m waiting to see…



Same here lol, It has been slowing down abit. Could it potentially go up? Who knows.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Haxorus said:


> Same here lol, It has been slowing down abit. Could it potentially go up? Who knows.



We need the markets to have another leg down!


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Two trades this evening on the FTSE. 
Both trying to short from resistance on 4 hour chart. 
1. Failed attempt (minus 10 points)
2. Second attempt with a stop above the high (12 point risk).

I always find it more psychologically challenging taking a trade after the previous trade has failed in the same session. 
This will be my final trade for the evening whether it fails or does well.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Trade on AUSSIE 200 from earlier today... still holding.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Exits have been my issue. 
I've been up plenty on trades the past week and given it back. 
I was up 180 points ($1,800) on ASX200 and ended up getting out for measly 30 points ($300).
I did close out one intraday on the ASX200 for 35 points last Thursday for $350. 
But apart from that I've given back way too much.


I'm feeling like these plays have some downside if they move but I have changed my tune a bit in thinking that I do need to bank some profits as I go. I won't go broke doing that. I probably will lose money however holding too long and giving back good profit from good trading on the entry.


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## Haxorus (4 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Trade on AUSSIE 200 from earlier today... still holding.
> 
> View attachment 143642



What's your thought process behind this trade from today? Why did you entry at that point of this graph? Why did you even enter this trade at all, etc.. I'm not digging into you btw lol. I'm completely a newbie, and you're literally light years ahead of me in terms of trading.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Stop on FTSE moved to BE.

Edit: stopped out.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2022)

Haxorus said:


> What's your thought process behind this trade from today? Why did you entry at that point of this graph? Why did you even enter this trade at all, etc.. I'm not digging into you btw lol. I'm completely a newbie, and you're literally light years ahead of me in terms of trading.



Price moving up into a resistance area on the 4h, so I'm bearish overall.

After a big bar pushes up, we see two small range bars closing near the low (the second bar on very small volume)
That's one of my mini-consolidation setups.
Then I enter below the low of those bars, with an initial stop above the high of the high bar.

The most important thing is the background context. 
If you need to understand this when considering the direction of any trade, and where to look for the trade. 
Then you need to learn some good setups that you can take in those places!
(and then good risk management i.e. moving stop loss).


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2022)

Stopped out of AUSSIE 200 for BE.

Not getting much reward at the moment!


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2022)

2 trades today. 
I took one on the ASX200 for $120 profit. 
1 took another on the FTSE100 for $650 profit. 

I'm looking to trade the first 1.5 hour or so now. 
Usually I identify a trade within 30-45 mins.


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2022)

I feel that this has a way to go still to the downside and to be honest I just couldn't hold my nerve after giving back so much in the past week. 

There was a bit of a support/resistance on the 4 hour chart around 6170ish. 
But my profit target originally was 6100. I had planned to set a limit order there for profit take.

So the most I've left on the table is 70 points.

I don't think it was a great trading decision to exit the trade where I did BUT a 65 point move (5R profit) is always a good night at the office!


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2022)

Taking a look at the chart there really is a zone between 7100ish-7140ish where it could be reasonable to exit for profit.
Unless one was holding with the push of price smashing through this area then that's the exit zone.
I probably should have held an extra 30 points at least. And usually I would.

But I think 7140 would have been my preferred exit over 7100.
Consistently taking good profit is much better in the long run than trying to maximize every move.
That said, my exit was definitely too early.


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2022)

Price found temporary support in that support zone that I identified above. 
Before I was about to turn my phone off, I saw that price was setting up at this level for a potential long.
Initial risk 13 points. 
This is a classic failed retest of the low. 

Stop now to B/E so no stress. 
I will probably have to let this run overnight because it's getting late. 
Worst case scenario is breakeven so I'll sleep well!


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2022)

Stopped at B/E


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## pavilion103 (6 July 2022)

Two attempts on FTSE. 
I'm not hiding my messy first attempt


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## tech/a (6 July 2022)

Nice entry Pav
like the B/E stop
makes the trade no stress
youll get a really good one soon enough!


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## pavilion103 (6 July 2022)

tech/a said:


> Nice entry Pav
> like the B/E stop
> makes the trade no stress
> youll get a really good one soon enough!



Taken out at B/E.
Brutal!


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## tech/a (6 July 2022)

Pav 
How long is your timeframe on a 3 min chart?

I think a 15/30 min maybe better have you looked at that?
Have a look at the Dax 
I found FTSE difficult and choppy 
Dax is more consistent i need only get on a good 
hour for a good return.


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## pavilion103 (6 July 2022)

tech/a said:


> Pav
> How long is your timeframe on a 3 min chart?
> 
> I think a 15/30 min maybe better have you looked at that?
> ...



Really I’m trying to get back to placing a trade on open and taking profit when it gets to a decent S/R.

I’m kicking myself for not lifting when the price  started to top out.

My goal is going to be taking 30 to 60 point profits and increasing the amount of contracts over time as I get used to it. Holding longer just ends up giving back too much profit.

I’m really frustrated that I didn’t get out when I was up 60 points.


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## pavilion103 (6 July 2022)

I knew that it had to correct but I thought price was too far away from my stop to worry about being taken out. I could have even exited and shorted given how much the market has been moving in both directions in this range recently.


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## pavilion103 (6 July 2022)

The other night I took 65 points off the table with a short so that I could lock it in. That is the exact mindset that I want to take. If I trade three times as many contracts that’s $2000 for very little effort. 

Anyway, a frustrating learning experience…


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## pavilion103 (6 July 2022)

I came into the open thinking that a push-up like that one was definitely on the cards. I was also torn because I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a breakdown on the longer time frame. I feel like I’ve missed a really good shorting opportunity now.

I just have to switch it all off now and forget about it until next session!!


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## tech/a (6 July 2022)

Good mindset.
Hows your current closed position RR?


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## pavilion103 (7 July 2022)

tech/a said:


> Good mindset.
> Hows your current closed position RR?



I have just started recording my statistics this week. Because I have been trying to figure out what time frames I want to trade everything has been all over the place and I wasn’t keeping track!

I will most likely provide a summary of my statistics in here at some point.


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## pavilion103 (7 July 2022)

I’ll check out the DAX

I remember years ago when you told me about it it seemed like it was a wild horse to me. Any tips to trading it compared to FTSE and ASX200?


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## tech/a (7 July 2022)

I look for unusual Price and Range action.
Tests of highs and lows. Every few sessions there will be 
very strong and very fast moves in one direction.
These are what I want. Often 60+ points.
In out and done


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## pavilion103 (7 July 2022)

tech/a said:


> I look for unusual Price and Range action.
> Tests of highs and lows. Every few sessions there will be
> very strong and very fast moves in one direction.
> These are what I want. Often 60+ points.
> In out and done



I’ll check it out. I can always load up the DAX as I’m reading the FTSE.

I do find with the FTSE that there are enough 30 to 60 point moves to make it very profitable when the initial risk is usually only 10 points or less.

I am happy to be on for the first 1.5 hours of the markets. Usually there’s a trade within that time frame and if I have not exited the position yet I can set alerts. It really is a good way to make money with very little time commitment.

Even so, time is not my issue at the moment. I have a Christian YouTube channel with 35K subscribers which gives me about half of an income. Plenty of time to be able to trade the opening parts of the markets and likely earn a full-time income doing that.

My main goal is to continue to increase the number of contracts and then even a 40 point move  for 50 contracts on the $1 spot would be $2000. I’m not gonna worry about the idea of looking for bigger moves of 100+ points. A recipe for frustration. I can make far more taking 40-60 point profits with SIZE. 

I’ll check out the DAX!


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## barney (7 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I do find with the FTSE that there are enough 30 to 60 point moves to make it very profitable when the initial risk is usually only 10 points or less.




Hi Pav. Curiously have you done any testing to determine the optimum Range (Daily/Hourly etc) that best fits your objective

Given your obvious ability to pick pretty good entries etc, perhaps chasing big daily moves of 100 points /1.5% moves, which are historically less likely to eventuate, may not be your best bang for the buck?

Thinking out loud, after eyeballing the FTSE, the  0.5% level seems the sweet spot for intra-day winners (around 30 points is very common)

Perhaps a scaling out/locking in X amount of profit when tightening Stops etc plan could better optimize your longer term bottom line? 

ps Appreciate your input/detail on the Thread.  pps What is your You tube channel?  I'd like to have a look


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## pavilion103 (7 July 2022)

barney said:


> Hi Pav. Curiously have you done any testing to determine the optimum Range (Daily/Hourly etc) that best fits your objective
> 
> Given your obvious ability to pick pretty good entries etc, perhaps chasing big daily moves of 100 points /1.5% moves, which are historically less likely to eventuate, may not be your best bang for the buck?
> 
> ...



I agree with you exactly.
Coming back to trading I was really trying to determine what type of trading would suit my circumstances. I originally thought I would try to go for longer moves, less frequently.

But recognising how much I was giving back, and that I only have to spend the first 30 to 90 minutes at the screen for either the ASX or FTSE, for a good intraday profit with size, got me back to thinking that’s how I want to trade.

I agree that 30 points is quite common. Anything from 30-50 would give me regular opportunities. Risking 7-12 points per trade. Limiting risk at BE asap. Then taking profit as a trend begins to lose legs near the target S/R level. 

I’d love to work from 10 contracts (on the spot $A1) up to 50+ which would really net a good income with little screen time.

My YouTube channel is: Lion of Fire Ministries.


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## barney (7 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I’d love to work from 10 contracts (on the spot $A1) up to 50+ which would really net a good income with little screen time.
> 
> My YouTube channel is: Lion of Fire Ministries.




Thanks for the link Pav. Will have a squiz.   I was bought up in a "Christian environment" as a young fella, but in my older age, am a bit "alternative", lol.  I do however respect anyone who has found their "path" in life, irrespective of where that path has manifest from. I have in recent times been listening to Jordan Peterson who I find quite compelling both intellectually and spiritually 


Re the Futs, obviously you are very methodical Pav, and as  @tech/a suggests, its only a matter of time before you work out a really good plan of attack to cash in on your abilities.

I wish I had your determination and patience because I do appreciate the concept of trading Futs since way back in the "Trembling Hand" era

Alas, as Dirty Harry suggested, A man needs to know his limitations, lol.   You seem very well adapted for the Futs "swing trading" arena, so I hope you end up achieving your plan Cheers.


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## pavilion103 (8 July 2022)

barney said:


> Thanks for the link Pav. Will have a squiz.   I was bought up in a "Christian environment" as a young fella, but in my older age, am a bit "alternative", lol.  I do however respect anyone who has found their "path" in life, irrespective of where that path has manifest from. I have in recent times been listening to Jordan Peterson who I find quite compelling both intellectually and spiritually
> 
> 
> Re the Futs, obviously you are very methodical Pav, and as  @tech/a suggests, its only a matter of time before you work out a really good plan of attack to cash in on your abilities.
> ...



I'd be interested to get your thoughts.
Truth is truth. It's a matter of who we trust to tell us the truth.
I trust the one who is most reliable; who fulfilled hundreds of prophecies written hundreds of years before his birth, claimed to be God in the flesh, and historically rose from the dead.
I don't trust Christianity, I trust Christ!
I certainly don't put my trust in the popular pseudo-scientific nonsense of the day, that our ancestors are bacteria!! 

Re Jordan Peterson he seems close to accepting Christ. He isn't quite there yet but grappling with it.
He is a good voice for sanity in today's insane world!
Even since I was last on ASF things have changed drastically. People have lost their collective minds!!

With the futures, I'm really learning a lot getting back into it.
I have a trading plan which I have been refining over the past few weeks and it's coming together nicely.
Now that I have clarity, I just need to execute it well


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## pavilion103 (8 July 2022)

A couple of losses on the Aussie market today.
Really this is not the type of conditions conducive to a whole lot of profit these past couple of days!
Lots of chop.
Just need to back off when it happens, and be very selective if I see an opportunity.
I didn't bother loading up the FTSE tonight. Took the chance for a Friday night off!


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## pavilion103 (9 July 2022)

It could be an important week for the indices. I’m watching S&P500, ASX200, FTSE.

We are right at a resistance but price action appears bullish. Will we see price break out of this range?

An important point in the markets...


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## pavilion103 (10 July 2022)

It's an interesting right now. 
There seem to be some nice bases forming on the indices and a number of stocks which have fallen significantly already. 
I've been thinking that there is potential for a collapse but at the same time I don't want to miss a potential bottom because on longer term investment potential because I was holding out for a bigger crash. 

What do people think? Interested in any thoughts?


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## tech/a (10 July 2022)

Let the price action answer.
Volume and Range.

The crowd will show the way. 
Remember The crowd that moves 
the market aren’t mum dads and you or I!

You should look deeply into yourself and
know when your guessing. ( pre empting)

Its ok to be wrong 
How long you remain wrong is a different matter!


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## pavilion103 (10 July 2022)

tech/a said:


> Let the price action answer.
> Volume and Range.
> 
> The crowd will show the way.
> ...



Yeh that’s the key isn’t it!

I saw the statement “react don’t predict” - says it all!

This past week price has been trending up slowly but steadily. This is what makes me think it looks bullish. But one bar at a time!

I have had a really good read on the direction of market action most days. 
It’s easy to think that I need to get it right every time, when I clearly don’t. Good RR setups and risk management creates positive expectancy, not 100% winning ratio!


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## peter2 (10 July 2022)

As soon as we're uncertain, we're doomed.

IMO we need to be prepared to trade in both directions using objective patterns. 
When trading in the direction of our overall bias aim for a little bit more (take some at our average profit and trail the rest). 
When trading against our trend bias, take average profits asap. 

We must keep stats so that we know our average wins and losses.


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## pavilion103 (11 July 2022)

peter2 said:


> As soon as we're uncertain, we're doomed.
> 
> IMO we need to be prepared to trade in both directions using objective patterns.
> When trading in the direction of our overall bias aim for a little bit more (take some at our average profit and trail the rest).
> ...



Thanks mate. Great comments.


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## pavilion103 (12 July 2022)

Good day on the ASX
$700 profit from $180 initial risk. 
20 contracts x 9 point risk. 
70 points profit. 

FTSE I lost 8 points ($80).
Too choppy. 
No point trading such wide patterns.


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## peter2 (13 July 2022)

I appreciated that you liked my comments, so I'll add a little more for you to think about. 

The best trading reversals start at the high or low of a session (Aus, UK, US). Can be High or low of the day also but not necessarily. The high of a UK session can be lower than the high of the prior Aus session. 

eg If my trend bias for oil is down I'll look for a reversal setup at the high of the UK or US session to short it. 
eg If my trend bias on the USDJPY is long, I'll look for a reversal pattern to go long at the low of the UK or US session. 

The large market participants have a tendency to trap less experienced traders at these highs and lows.

This process saves me time as I only need look for the strongest and clearest trends with current pull-backs. I arrange the 4 - 6 charts to observe them all and wait for the reversal patterns to form near the high/low of the UK/US sessions. 

Very occasionally the trend will move in the AUS session but that's rare. If I miss out then I'm looking for a trend continuation pattern to get in. The AUS session is a low volume one and frequently has a narrow range increasing the odds of a winning break-out opportunity in the UK session.  Once price makes a new high (if it was a BO up) be on the lookout for the reversal trap. If you trade the daily trend then you're less likely to be trapped. 

Your nice ASX winning trade started soon after the open. Where? At the high of the day. Many of your FTSE reversals form soon after the London open. Where? At the HOD or LOD.


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## pavilion103 (13 July 2022)

I


peter2 said:


> I appreciated that you liked my comments, so I'll add a little more for you to think about.
> 
> The best trading reversals start at the high or low of a session (Aus, UK, US). Can be High or low of the day also but not necessarily. The high of a UK session can be lower than the high of the prior Aus session.
> 
> ...



 I appreciate this. Thank you.

I am with you on this!
I like to be at the screen for the first 1.5h max because I know the best setup for a move most often comes within that time (often in the first 30-60 mins).
Then I can turn it off and set alerts or limit order etc.

I’ve definitely also noticed the reversal traps! 
That’s why I like to be clear on support and resistance levels. It also makes it a challenge to hold overnight unless it’s in a really good spot!!

I have not ventured into commodities or forex but that sounds very interesting how you approach it in conjunction with the indices!


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## pavilion103 (13 July 2022)

Question for anyone experienced @peter2 @tech/a 

Do you avoid trading a particular day prior to major news? eg. CPI, GDP etc

How do you trade around this news?

For example, on the FTSE, if there is news coming out 1-2 hours after the start of the session, would you simply not trade before that?


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## peter2 (14 July 2022)

I didn't respond as we each have to make our own decisions and I thought the question had an obvious answer.  I always close open positions before important news. I won't even start one in the hour before because price can meander sideways. Here's an example of why I chose the close my open trades before news. Check out the price spike after the US CPI news. 

*AUDUSD*:  My trend bias is up (based on the 4hr chart as the daily trend is unclear). I started this trade after the reversal formed at the low of the UK session. I earned ~2.5R on this trade. There was more available but I'm happy with this above average result before the news.




 Just about every market had a huge spike in response to that news.
Reversal setups formed in the US session (again at the low of the session) but my focus had shifted to the US after the news.

The hardest part of this business is being patient and waiting for the perfect setup. Yesterday I traded three reversal setups in one market and two in another. I lost on all five. On review, three of those "setups" were less than perfect. I was a little impatient but the market finally gave me a winning trade later on. We all have bad days and good days.


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## peter2 (14 July 2022)

Re: Your question on the FTSE. This index does get quite volatile an hour before open and then immediately after the open. I prefer to let it settle so if there's important EU news later I'll not trade it.


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## pavilion103 (14 July 2022)

I stayed up for the news and allowed it to drop and then traded a reversal on the FTSE. 

I wasn’t awake for the other moves but it looks like some great setups. 

I’ve never really had a strategy to trade around news. The reason I asked the question is that I wondered if people held prior to news if they anticipated a certain move, or if it’s just too unpredictable to benefit from an open position!


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## KevinBB (14 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Do you avoid trading a particular day prior to major news? eg. CPI, GDP etc
> 
> How do you trade around this news?



None of my back tests take news or daily events into account, so, it follows that my trading should not take these into account either.

I use trend following methods to trade futures when my signals tell me to trade. Price is the only factor, news isn't taken into account at all.

KH


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## pavilion103 (14 July 2022)

Tonight's trade. Very clean. Simple. 
I was looking for a short. 
After the pushdown on the open I was looking for the push up to be halted with action looking weak. 
I got a nice little 2 bar setup. Great RR. 
I sold near a profit target. I didn't have the guts to hold longer until there was a clearer halt to the downward momentum. 
But I am content with 49 points from a 10 risk. 
I don't need to maximize every move. In fact, trying to do so will probably cost me dearly. 
That's a good chunk profit for me!


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## pavilion103 (14 July 2022)

I held a position on the ASX200 all day with a stop above the highs. I then sold out after the Aussie market close for a 6 point loss. 
I'm still unclear about holding trades after the session heading into the next market. The stop was wider (16 points) so I didn't want to take any unnecessary risk. 

Unfortunately the trade has moved 65 points since then. My profit target was 50 points. Annoying but that's ok. 
I need to learn what to do... should I hold in future or not?!


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## pavilion103 (14 July 2022)

I'm a bit nervous. I have two big (for me) open profit positions on S&P500 and NASDAQ. 
I got in a few days ago at resistance on the 4 hour chart, with a play to capitalize on a push down to lower lows on the daily chart. 
Initial risk was about $2,000. 
Stops to B/E so no stress. 
Open profit is:
S&P500 = $1,040
NASDAQ = $1,600


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## pavilion103 (14 July 2022)

I actually closed them out a support level on the 4 hour chart.

I may regret it but I’m happy to cash in $2,400.

Almost $3,000 profit locked in this evening so I’ll rest content!

I just didn’t have the nerves to hold it!


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## barney (14 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I’ve never really had a strategy to trade around news.





KevinBB said:


> None of my back tests take news or daily events into account, so, it follows that my trading should not take these into account either.




I'm certainly no expert on trading Futures even though I still dabble (it could be a disease I think, lol! )

Anyway, I remember "Trembling Hand" speaking of the potential of being "swept" away (price wise), at certain times of the year,

I know for sure, if you trade Forex, and don't "respect" the NEWS, you will be crucified,  unless you have a bank the size of Bill Gates nephew!

And for the record, I don't like Bill Gates, lol!  

Basically, respect and "be aware" of the NEWS!  Particularly if you intend trading any substantial "size"


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## barney (14 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I don't need to maximize every move. In fact, trying to do so will probably cost me dearly.




A wise summation methinks Pav! 

Well done on the "win"


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## barney (14 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I just didn’t have the nerves to hold it!




If the nerves kick in, close* at least *1/3 or maybe 1/2 of the position in my experience.

The "nerves" are a reflection of your "experience"

Trust your nerves ... at least to some degree!


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## pavilion103 (14 July 2022)

Isn’t it funny… I hold those US positions and I get nervous about the open profit. I sell those positions and I get nervous that the market will crash and I’ll regret exiting them 😂

If there’s one lesson that’s hit me since I’ve been back trading it’s that a bird in the hand is better than two in the woods.

I’m much more relaxed entering my setups on open and taking my 30-50 point profits and going to bed content!
Add size to that with more contracts and there’s no need to chase bigger moves for more profit.


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## KevinBB (15 July 2022)

barney said:


> The "nerves" are a reflection of your "experience"






pavilion103 said:


> I’m much more relaxed entering my setups on open and taking my 30-50 point profits and going to bed content!



I've been auto trading for the past year. Actually, the one year anniversary is today! (happy birthday to me!)

Auto trading has taken all decisions out of my hands, but I still get nervous about the positions I hold. So, risk management is very important for my trading. I apply a 5% maximum risk to account size, no exceptions.

There was one, and only one, occasion where I became so nervous that I took matters into my own hands and closed almost all positions, and that happened late February 2022 after up days of 2.7%, 1.8% and 3.8%, all well above the 2 standard deviation level. One of the worst decisions I've made because after a while prices kept going in my favour. Live and learn.

KH


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## pavilion103 (15 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> I've been auto trading for the past year. Actually, the one year anniversary is today! (happy birthday to me!)
> 
> Auto trading has taken all decisions out of my hands, but I still get nervous about the positions I hold. So, risk management is very important for my trading. I apply a 5% maximum risk to account size, no exceptions.
> 
> ...



Ouch… tough lesson!

Having rules (where possible) makes it so much easier. When we learn to trust our rules it makes it even easier!

I lost 12 points on a bad trade on the ASX200 this morning.

I then got in a good one. My profit target was around 35 points. I got up 20 and then chased it in because of the previous loss. Of course sit comfortably reached the profit target.
Just a small example of emotions getting in the way of rules!


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## pavilion103 (15 July 2022)

I got a great long on the FTSE this evening. 
Entry 7090, stop 7077.
I put stop to BE after it moved up and I went to dinner. 
I had an alert set at 7139. 
Price only reached 7135 on a high volume, wide bar, and then fell. 
So annoying!
Lost all those points. 
Should have had an alert a bit lower (maybe a max 35 points away next time, 49 was a bit much even though I predicted where it would peak fairly well). 

So many 30-50 point moves this week. 
Feeling good. 
I'm planning to go from 10 to 15 contracts next week. 
If I trade well then go to 20 the following week. 
Then sit there for a while!


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## tech/a (16 July 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Price only reached 7135 on a high volume, wide bar, and then fell.




You saw it albeit in hindsite 
hard the trade longer term with short term timeframes.

I have always found the FTSE difficult and stopped trading it .
I find the DAX easier and more conforming to analysis.

I think the Germans are more compartmentalised in their thinking!😀


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## pavilion103 (16 July 2022)

tech/a said:


> You saw it albeit in hindsite
> hard the trade longer term with short term timeframes.
> 
> I have always found the FTSE difficult and stopped trading it .
> ...



That particular trade was actually an intra day trade. I was out at dinner. I should have set an alert that wasn’t as far away given that I wasn’t able to watch the screen. When I’m at the screen, as soon as that type of volume comes in I am out of the trade!

I have added the DAX to my watch list.
I have looked at a few charts and it does seem like it moves quicker. Although the initial risk is more points.

I think I’m going to leave the Aussie market alone and give myself the day to do other activities. Then I can load up the FTSE and DAX in the evenings.

Only need two good trades in a week. I’m trying to get into that mindset. It makes things far more simple!


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## tech/a (16 July 2022)

Yes similar 
if it (DAX) doesn’t set up and trade well in the first few 
hours I’m looking at it. I walk away. Don’t force a trade or guess one.

As you say only need a couple of good ones and the occasional great trade.
Im a little different to you in that if a trade doesn’t move immediately in my direction 
then I’m out I won’t wait for a stop to be taken out I’ll wait for a new set up. Sometimes
those setups just don’t play out or show themselves.

futures are great to trade with volatility—- in out — long/short with a click


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## pavilion103 (16 July 2022)

tech/a said:


> Yes similar
> if it (DAX) doesn’t set up and trade well in the first few
> hours I’m looking at it. I walk away. Don’t force a trade or guess one.
> 
> ...



I do agree that most of the best trades move immediately.
I have also found though that if I have my stop  above and upthrust for a short, or below a spring for a long, it often holds.

The thing is that is it triggers my entry and then pulls back down a bit, if I were to exit then I’ve lost half my initial risk, and quite often price might play around for a few bars before moving in my favour. In those instances I feel the risk to reward is better for me to remain in the trade if I’m confident of the direction.

I have thought about this a bit and have ended up being burnt at times when I’ve got out of a trade and then back in and then out and back in. I’d rather just leave it!


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## pavilion103 (16 July 2022)

Last night's trade on FTSE


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## pavilion103 (16 July 2022)

My frustration was compounded here...


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## pavilion103 (16 July 2022)

Plenty of frustration and missed dollars, but no loss, which is what matters most. 
THIS is why risk management is #1!


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## Modest (16 July 2022)

Hi Pav glad you're doing better mate. I remember way back when I first started out trading I scoured ASF and read all your and Trembling Hands posts, I was like a info sponge back then. 

I like the thread and will be following along!


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## pavilion103 (17 July 2022)

Modest said:


> Hi Pav glad you're doing better mate. I remember way back when I first started out trading I scoured ASF and read all your and Trembling Hands posts, I was like a info sponge back then.
> 
> I like the thread and will be following along!



Hope you enjoy the thread!
Glad my posts helped at the start of your journey!! 😃


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## barney (17 July 2022)

The moral of the story Pav.   When trading Futures, don't eat, and don't go to the dunny!


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## pavilion103 (18 July 2022)

FTSE trade. 
Price broken above the resistance on 4h chart. 
Some consolidation happening just above my BE stop. 
I was hoping it wouldn't pull back so close to my stop and put me at risk but ah well. 
Some room above for the FTSE to move. So I traded this as a potential continuation.


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## pavilion103 (19 July 2022)

Stopped at BE.

I was awake for the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
Took a trade on each to the short side. 
Stop to BE.
Woke up with markets heavily down but my BE stop taken out 😩😡


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## pavilion103 (19 July 2022)

I also had a losing trade on both FTSE and DAX in between that. 
Price came back down to below where my original entry was. A nice little spring and consolidation. 
It wasn't a bad setup. It did push up a little. 
It didn't hold and I lost my initial risk ($200 total). 

It seemed to me after this that the market wasn't behaving as I expected for a breakup above the 4h resistance. 
Then I saw the US charts and it was right at resistance so I decided to short. 
Nailed the direction but unfortunately my BE stop took me out. 
Originally I had left the stop above the high of the day and had planned to. 
But I think I made the right decision moving stop to BE, even if it cost me approx $1,700. 
Better in the long run to do the right things than to reinforce bad risk management. 
I could have left it, it wouldn't have been terrible but either way I'm content in the end!


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## pavilion103 (19 July 2022)

I had previously asked a question about trading, or not trading prior to news. Is something like the news below reason enough to not trade the FTSE open?


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## pavilion103 (19 July 2022)

I also have a question about the gaps on smaller timeframes. Is it best to always wait for gaps to get filled regardless of the time frame? Say for example there is a gap on the three minute chat but not on the five minute or 10 minute chat. Is this reason to wait for the gap to be filled?


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## pavilion103 (23 August 2022)

I have been a bit busy over the past month so I haven’t posted.

I finally got into trading the DAX.
There definitely are incredible opportunities there…
I got on a trade last week and actually held it until last night.

Getting in at good RR positions on the daily really allows for good profit when you can let it run 3-4 days!

I wasn’t prepared to take any further risk with open profit even though this down move could have a little bit to go.


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

Here are some trades on the FTSE from last night that I'm holding into tonight.


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

Another two positions taken tonight. 
One I've exited for profit. 
The other is still running.


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

This is how to look for shorts in a down trend.


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

This was one on the DAX - Tuesday 30/8/22. 
I didn't get this in a good enough place on the hourly chart to let it run any longer, so I took profit after letting it run overnight.


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

Key Zones
FTSE 100 - 4 hour chart


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

I actually had multiple contracts on the DAX last week LONG. 
I was 170 points open profit x 20 = $3,400. 
This was prior to Jackson Hole speech. 
I anticipated price to push up a little bit further. 

I learnt my lesson. 
Better to play it safe prior to such an event that can (and did) move the market. 
My stop got taken out RAPIDLY, and I was left with only $400 profit from the $3,400. 
If I had my time again, I would have closed out of the position prior to the meeting. 
Also a good lesson to scale off a position too. 
I've learnt from that this week and had a good balance between leaving open profit, as well as locking in profit.


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

$1,500 -FTSE (entry 30/8/22)
$750 - DAX (entry 30/8/22)
$750 - FTSE (entry 31/8/22)
= $3,000 locked in since yesterday's open.

$2,000 - FTSE (entry 30/8/22)
$2,000 - FTSE (entry 30/8/22)
$700 - FTSE (entry 31/8/22)
= $4,700 still running since yesterday's open. 

I feel that the next couple of days will be very important. 
I will report further on these positions...


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

I'll start to use points instead of dollars when talking about numbers. 
That might be easier for people to follow along with


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## pavilion103 (31 August 2022)

I just closed the other position that I opened today. 
75 points profit.


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## tech/a (1 September 2022)

Pav

You still trading?

Miss your commentary


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## qldfrog (1 September 2022)

tech/a said:


> Pav
> 
> You still trading?
> 
> Miss your commentary



Hi @tech/a , Pav was posting last night so i assume he he still on, well and alive


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## tech/a (1 September 2022)

Ah My mistake I was referring to a past post.

Cheers


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## pavilion103 (1 September 2022)

tech/a said:


> Pav
> 
> You still trading?
> 
> Miss your commentary



Hey mate.
I hadn’t posted for about a month or so in this thread. There has been some interesting activity over the past two weeks and I’ve been getting a bit more involved again.


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## tech/a (1 September 2022)

Life happens


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## Roller_1 (1 September 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> This is how to look for shorts in a down trend.
> 
> View attachment 146185




Great work Pav. Are you looking for price to pull back to specific levels or are you waiting for the pullback, waiting for price to stall and then looking for a tight entry on the three-minute charts.


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## pavilion103 (1 September 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> Great work Pav. Are you looking for price to pull back to specific levels or are you waiting for the pullback, waiting for price to stall and then looking for a tight entry on the three-minute charts.



Both. 
First I identify key levels.
Then I observe how price reacts at those levels. 

Levels are of utmost importance. A good setup at a level that doesn't make sense can lose a lot of money over time.
It doesn't have to be exact, but I want it to be around an area that makes sense!


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## pavilion103 (1 September 2022)

tech/a said:


> Life happens



Yeh the good thing about trading is that it isn't a 9-5 job. 
I don't have to turn up any day, or even week. 
If trading well the profits sustain me. 
And the bonus is that most of my trades come in the first hour, and then I can sit back and either set an alert of let it run overnight if I want. 
Great flexibility to give me the opportunity to work on other things!


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## pavilion103 (1 September 2022)

@tech/a 

I remember a decade ago (yeh, it's been that long), when I was starting out and nothing made sense. Everything that seemed like it should work didn't. I remember when it finally clicked. I owe much of that to your guidance. 
I paper traded 4 years without a cent in the markets!!! (I don't know how I managed that).
I read about 30 books, I studied Wyckoff. 
VSA made the most sense to me despite some of the haters on this thread. 
And now it's happy days!

I'll scale up within reason (maybe 3 times size what I'm trading now) over the next 6-12 months and that will be more than I need!


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## Roller_1 (1 September 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Both.
> First I identify key levels.
> Then I observe how price reacts at those levels.
> 
> ...




Thanks Pav. i've been lurking on the thread while i am doing paper trading mainly on the Nikkei but also on the 6A recently. similar style to you, hopefully heading in the right direction with my trading!


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## pavilion103 (2 September 2022)

Another win last night. It's been a great week. 
The initial risk was larger than I'd like in that spot - 13 points, but rangers are larger right now. 
I only took 10 contracts rather than the usual 20 because the downtrend is over extended and I wasn't 100% confident on the direction. 
I exited because the downtrend on the daily is already overextended and the US market looked like it was struggling to push down. 
Happy to pocket the profit. 

I like these setups near open. If it pushes down, rather than chase it with a wide stop, I wait for it to push up and fail and then I short it below the low of the failure with my stop above the high! Had this been a 9 point risk, or if it wasn't so extended to the downside already, I would have taken my usual 20 contracts.


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## pavilion103 (2 September 2022)

This week has been win after win.
Much easier when such a tend occurs.
Need to capitalize on it.
It won't always go so well!


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## pavilion103 (2 September 2022)

Is the FTSE finding a bit of temporary support?


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## pavilion103 (2 September 2022)

Tonight's trades. 2 x 10 contracts. 
Risk is currently down to 10 points with 1st trade stop moved to BE. 
The question is, do I let this run?
There is big news out in the US in a few hours with unemployment and non-farm payrolls. I'm less likely to want to hold during news which can move the market.

But IF this is a support base and I hold there is good R/R for a decent move up.
Tough decision...

Edit: trade now 28+37 = 65 points.


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## pavilion103 (2 September 2022)

Sold for +36 points total.
I don’t want to hold a long position over the weekend so I decided to close it.


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## pavilion103 (2 September 2022)

Well this is annoying…
Why does it never work out well when I go against my instincts 😩
The R/R for a good move over 2-3 days in this spot is just so good!
I sold out for 36 points! 
Didn’t want to hold over weekend but, I’m wondering how I’ll look back on this.

I guess we’ll see how it pans out.


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## pavilion103 (2 September 2022)

I feel like my best strategy at times is:
Place trade
Adjust stops
Turn off phone so that I can’t change my mind!


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## frugal.rock (2 September 2022)

Well, to be fair on yourself, you don't want to be in the market in front of announcements. 
That was part of your trade plan, right?!

It's a shrug the shoulders moment. 
It could have easily been the other way round, ponder that for a moment...


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## InsvestoBoy (3 September 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> I feel like my best strategy at times is:
> Place trade
> Adjust stops
> Turn off phone so that I can’t change my mind!




Just wait until the next trade where you think it's a runner and turns and eats your stop before you even get the chance to adjust it.

Then you'll feel like your best strategy is whatever you did today.

The joys of trying to apply daily+ timeframe thinking (where trends have a chance to develop amongst the noise) to intraday trades.


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## pavilion103 (3 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, to be fair on yourself, you don't want to be in the market in front of announcements.
> That was part of your trade plan, right?!
> 
> It's a shrug the shoulders moment.
> It could have easily been the other way round, ponder that for a moment...



Yeh, the emotions of trading…

I had reason to not want to be in it over the weekend too.

Price fell sharply after it shot up.

That post of mine was a good example of emotions!!


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## pavilion103 (3 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Just wait until the next trade where you think it's a runner and turns and eats your stop before you even get the chance to adjust it.
> 
> Then you'll feel like your best strategy is whatever you did today.
> 
> The joys of trying to apply daily+ timeframe thinking (where trends have a chance to develop amongst the noise) to intraday trades.



Yeh.

Amazing how price falls sharply overnight from after it shot up, and all of a sudden I don’t feel so bad 😂 

A hold from where I was would have been a bit of a hit and hope. Waiting for a base to form is best.

The momentum is still down obviously! 

Next week will be interesting…


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## pavilion103 (3 September 2022)

These levels are the toughest for me when the momentum is still down but the move is so extended without much relief.

After the rejection of the upside last night, for now it will be looking for intraday shorts until something changes.


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## pavilion103 (4 September 2022)

This is good.


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## pavilion103 (5 September 2022)

Not trading this evening.
US public holiday and don’t expect the EU markets to be too exciting.
Not in a great spot anyway on charts.
Back tomorrow!


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## pavilion103 (6 September 2022)

FTSE has pushed up as I anticipated last week.
I’m a bit annoyed that I didn’t trade last night because I had identified the area where it found support as a good buy.

I am waiting to see how price plays out now.


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## pavilion103 (7 September 2022)

I lost 10 points last night.

I had some positions on the FTSE and the DAX. I got out of the DAX at break even.

FTSE I wanted to hold but the price action was just too choppy. I probably did well in the end to come away with a small loss.

Had I left my original trade, I would be up around 90 points now, which is huge. But given that it did not move straight away, they would certainly have been an element of gambling to that, and that’s not how I want to trade.

It’s always encouraging to be able to identify the direction of the moves even if on nights like last night I don’t come away with any profit.


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## pavilion103 (7 September 2022)

Just the one trade this evening, on the DAX.
Really tricky to know where to exit because we are really in a bit of a kangaroo market right now. 
I took one off before the Euro GDP announcement to pocket $430. 
Stop to other position to BE.


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## pavilion103 (7 September 2022)

The 1 hour chart shows how much this chart is hopping around.
I'm glad I took that profit, it's too choppy right now to be sure about larger targets. 
There aren't too many clear zones here...


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## pavilion103 (7 September 2022)

Target 12,900 for second position (if it even gets close!!)


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## pavilion103 (7 September 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Target 12,900 for second position (if it even gets close!!)



I’m stopped out. 
12797.
29 points profit. $145.


I attempted one more at 12809, stopped 12797. 12 point loss. $60


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## Cam019 (7 September 2022)

You trade currencies Pav?


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## pavilion103 (7 September 2022)

Cam019 said:


> You trade currencies Pav?



I haven’t.
I’d be interested though!
Only indices and dabble in commodities


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

I took a short on the DAX. 
Stop to BE. 
Not sure if this will go down or hold at these levels now. But BE so all good!
13000 is a good technical level.


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

FTSE is looking a bit uglier. 
I jumped in and out for two BE trades because it wasn't dropping. 
I got back in for 12.5 risk (would have liked less). 
Now I'm going to hold it. 
Could go either way though. Not convinced!


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

One of the greatest ways that I have thrown away money over my time trading has been getting in and out of positions in ranges like the FTSE chart above. There are so many natural fluctuations within such a range, and I find it's better for me to just leave it and cop the 10 or so point risk. It's easy for emotions to take over each time it gets to the top or bottom of the range. I get in and out and end up losing more than had I just held originally. 

So as long as my larger time frame analysis is good, and I'm at a good support or resistance level, I like to set it and leave it.


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

FTSE OUT BE.
Really doing nothing. 
Would just be gambling now!


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

1x5 DAX contract exited for 56 point profit = $280


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

Hard to know what to do with that DAX position. 
I'm holding 5 contracts. 
But the 5 I exited... price wasn't moving much. Really stalling.
But the chart is in a good place where IF it falls, it's going to be a big move. 
If this collapses, I'll regret lifting for such a small gain. 
But this is the balancing act of trading!


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

I exited.
12882
106 points profit - $530

$290+$530 
= $820


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)




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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

No technical reason to exit.
I’m thinking that some European news and Powell speaking tonight could potentially cause some movement.

I’m disappointed with my first exit. 
Really out of fear of taking nothing away from the evening!

My plan at the start was to HOLD. In a good place on the chart for resistance. 
I just didn’t have the courage to hold.

We are around a bit of a support level but not a major one. 

I might wake up shaking my head if this pushes down overnight!!


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## pavilion103 (8 September 2022)

I plan to post losses also. 
I have had a really good run lately and the losses have only been small.

I’ll try to post some of these failed setup‘s also so that people can see how I am managing risk to the downside.


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## pavilion103 (9 September 2022)

Wow what an day!
Huge move down. Huge move up. Huge move down. Then back up.


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## Roller_1 (9 September 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Wow what an day!
> Huge move down. Huge move up. Huge move down. Then back up.



I know I was surprised when I open the screens this morning!


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## pavilion103 (12 September 2022)

Just a quick trade on the FTSE. 
I was expecting it to push up, so I waited for the push down on open, then a retest of this area. When price looked like holding, I entered. 
There was no technical reason for me to exit there exactly but I'm not looking for running profits here. Sharp move up. Probably could have held the first one another 10 points like the second one but I wanted to take some off. 
If I were to have set a target based on the best technicals probably around 7440. 
Happy to make 64 points ($640) from 14 risk, in 45 mins. 
Now I can turn it off for the evening and have dinner. Happy!!


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## pavilion103 (12 September 2022)

Actually I'm looking at a potential short here...
That will be the last one. Small risk (7.5 points x 10 contracts).


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## pavilion103 (12 September 2022)

I wanted to take a long on the DAX also. But didn't want that much risk in one evening. 
That would have been a nice 70 point win. 
Too much initial risk for me with all three positions.


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## pavilion103 (12 September 2022)

Short orders cancelled - pattern invalidated.


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## Roller_1 (12 September 2022)

Do you use a mix of LMT and Stop orders for entries Pav? or depends on the setup


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## pavilion103 (13 September 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> Do you use a mix of LMT and Stop orders for entries Pav? or depends on the setup



Both depending on the setup. Mainly stop orders. Last night I used LMT.


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## pavilion103 (13 September 2022)

With the CPI announcement out tonight it might be a good day for me to sit on my hands. This rally is becoming a bit extended now. This is an interesting area. I’m waiting to see if price finds resistance over the next few days. Then I will be potentially looking for the next down move (if it looks weak).

I have found that it is most profitable to get on trades at the major support and resistance levels and let it run for a week or so. Of course plenty of trading in between, but getting on one of those moves really boosts profitability.


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## pavilion103 (13 September 2022)

I am also keeping an eye on gold at the moment. I want to see if it really find support at these levels. I don’t usually trade commodities but I’m interested. I did make a lot of money on oil holding an ETF from mid 2020 until early this year. That was around triple my money.


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## pavilion103 (13 September 2022)

Last night I came back on the FTSE and placed a short trade. I ended up cutting my losses at -13 points. That is an example of me trying to overtrade. 

I find that trading outside of the opening couple of hours never really works well for me. Also that trade was against the general trend and was really a bit of a hit and hope. I need to learn to completely turn it off and not even look at it until the next day once I’ve made my profit. The good thing is that with risk management he didn’t do much damage.


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## Roller_1 (13 September 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Both depending on the setup. Mainly stop orders. Last night I used LMT.




Thanks Pav. I find it tough to choose between the two. With stop the risk is larger but price is heading the right direction vs Lmt tight entries but entering either on pull backs or into strength/weakness.


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## pavilion103 (17 September 2022)

It’s been a really profitable week!
Some very clear setups.
I’ll see if I can go back and post some if I get time!

I traveled from Adelaide to Melbourne the past few days to go see the mighty Geelong Cats!!!


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## tech/a (18 September 2022)

Think Geelong is very bullish with a very clear breakout after a long run of consolidating wins.
Cats will be just too good.

Not a Magpie lover but think it would have been a far better GF had they got over the line.


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## Roller_1 (26 October 2022)

You still putting on any trades Pav? Hopefully no health issues have risen again


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