# International markets traders banter



## Trembling Hand

Guys thought I would start a thread where we can freely BS on about the trading of various International Markets and how we are seeing markets we are looking at. Pretty much the discussion going on in the S&P thread which is kinda off topic but still interesting.

Basically a thread to discuss any and all movement outside specific ASX stocks. And how they are travelling. I often have my usual rubbish banter to add most days but haven't anywhere to put it to have a "cohesive narrative". :

Have nothing brilliant to add to kick off except cept its a sea of green out there. Surprised me!


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## Timmy

I'll be right with you once I re-orient my screen to portrait.

I'm going to need some phone books to sit on if this continues.


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## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Guys thought I would start a thread where we can freely BS on about the trading of various International Markets and how we are seeing markets we are looking at. Pretty much the discussion going on in the S&P thread which is kinda off topic but still interesting.
> 
> Basically a thread to discuss any and all movement outside specific ASX stocks. And how they are travelling. I often have my usual rubbish banter to add most days but haven't anywhere to put it to have a "cohesive narrative". :
> 
> Have nothing brilliant to add to kick off except cept its a sea of green out there. Surprised me!




Thanks for starting the thread, I felt guilty about off topic too. 

She's running hard that's for sure, best not to stand in the way it seems. I heard Asian CB demand for AUDUSD down at 1.05 was advertised at least since Friday (e.g. http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/03/12/audusd-trade-recommendation/ and http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/...terest-yesterday-near-1-0500-was-very-strong/), they definitely look like they were hitting offers pretty hard in that zone today!

Thankfully, much more 'normal' trading today compared to last week. One loser and a couple of regular wins today, +10 all up, not sure I'm gonna bother with the afternoon session, might try for a couple more slugs around the London Open if it looks good...I'm not game to either try and fade here or wait to try and catch the continuation.


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## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> I'll be right with you once I re-orient my screen to portrait.
> 
> I'm going to need some phone books to sit on if this continues.




LOL. yep ES up 0.4% Z(Ftse) 0.5%, Asia 1-2% just another day hey!

Things look a little toppy for now (next hour!) probably need some more Euro juice to move higher............... today.


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## Starcraftmazter

Does anyone know where to find the amount of open short interest for AAPL & NASDAQ?


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## skyQuake

Starcraftmazter said:


> Does anyone know where to find the amount of open short interest for AAPL & NASDAQ?




U mean Apple on the nasdaq ? Or open interest on nasdaq?
Doubt theres any good free sources out there


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## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Does anyone know where to find the amount of open short interest for AAPL & NASDAQ?



APPL 
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/short-interest
NAS,
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/qqq/short-interest
and
http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/volume-open-interest/equity-volume.html


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## Starcraftmazter

skyQuake said:


> U mean Apple on the nasdaq ? Or open interest on nasdaq?
> Doubt theres any good free sources out there




Both Apple as a stock and NASDAQ as an index.



Trembling Hand said:


> APPL
> http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/short-interest
> NAS,
> http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/qqq/short-interest
> and
> http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/volume-open-interest/equity-volume.html




Cheers. Is there a way to get that data dating even further back?


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## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Guys thought I would start a thread where we can freely BS on about the trading of various International Markets and how we are seeing markets we are looking at. Pretty much the discussion going on in the S&P thread which is kinda off topic but still interesting.
> 
> Basically a thread to discuss any and all movement outside specific ASX stocks. And how they are travelling. I often have my usual rubbish banter to add most days but haven't anywhere to put it to have a "cohesive narrative". :
> 
> Have nothing brilliant to add to kick off except cept its a sea of green out there. Surprised me!




Whats happened to your blog?
Are you looking at bot trading or are you 
going to simply out perform them manually?
Have you any interest in developing Algos for
this sort of trading?

Personally I feel that unless you have an institutional pocket size
Joe average could be badly un stuck.

I can see neuro bots popping up.
(Adapting to other bots algos for profit).


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## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Cheers. Is there a way to get that data dating even further back?




Open interest for the index is everywhere. Like here,
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NQ

For APPL no idea. You'll have to have a hunt around. Sure its out there somewhere. Not that its much use in any case. Index OI waxes and wanes and most of its not directional trades. And then of course for every short there is a long so I wonder what your looking for?


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## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> For APPL no idea. You'll have to have a hunt around. Sure its out there somewhere. Not that its much use in any case. Index OI waxes and wanes and most of its not directional trades. And then of course for every short there is a long so I wonder what your looking for?




Trend I guess, to see when the trend of shorts will rise.


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## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Whats happened to your blog?



No time for it at the mo. May get back into one day but have bigger fish to flip than _trying _to post smart stuff for no one in particular.



tech/a said:


> Are you looking at bot trading or are you going to simply out perform them manually?
> Have you any interest in developing Algos for this sort of trading?




Not really. My head hurts enough as it is. And its hardly like my current methods are broken nor have I reached the limit of my current approach...... So do and do again.



tech/a said:


> Personally I feel that unless you have an institutional pocket size Joe average could be badly un stuck.



 Trading an algo? or futs trading in general?


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## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Trend I guess, to see when the trend of shorts will rise.




Actually short interest normally rise as a company approaches bankruptcies. That is once they have been in a long down trend.


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## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Have you any interest in developing Algos for
> this sort of trading?
> 
> Personally I feel that unless you have an institutional pocket size
> Joe average could be badly un stuck.
> 
> I can see neuro bots popping up.
> (Adapting to other bots algos for profit).




TT are developing a platform for traders that have no coding experience to create algos, called ADL I think(I think it's in beta stages now). Looks really interesting, it's all visual based, don't need to code(although I'm sure you can as well) and it seems pretty intense too as in you can do quite a lot. It might make things interesting, I know a lot of guys are pretty excited about it, so there could be a algo-mad period where guys that don't really have much idea are creating these crazy algos that might not work, could get some weird things going on......maybe 


EDIT: Haha getting off topic straight away, my bad. *ahem* Asia up between 1-2%. There we go.


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## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> No time for it at the mo. May get back into one day but have bigger fish to flip than _trying _to post smart stuff for no one in particular.




See your point. I dont and wouldnt without some reason for doing so,$s would be an influence.



> Not really. My head hurts enough as it is. And its hardly like my current methods are broken nor have I reached the limit of my current approach...... So do and do again.
> 
> Trading an algo? or futs trading in general?




Id say the In general guys would be at risk more so than those capable of testing and implementing an Algo bot.


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## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> TT are developing a platform for traders that have no coding experience to create algos, called ADL I think(I think it's in beta stages now). Looks really interesting, it's all visual based, don't need to code(although I'm sure you can as well) and it seems pretty intense too as in you can do quite a lot. It might make things interesting, I know a lot of guys are pretty excited about it, so there could be a algo-mad period where guys that don't really have much idea are creating these crazy algos that might not work, could get some weird things going on......maybe




Creating is one side of the Cube.
There are 7 others.


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## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> TT are developing a platform for traders that have no coding experience to create algos, called ADL I think(I think it's in beta stages now). Looks really interesting, it's all visual based, don't need to code(although I'm sure you can as well) and it seems pretty intense too as in you can do quite a lot.






tech/a said:


> Creating is one side of the Cube.
> There are 7 others.



And only takes 50 hours to be an expert. 

https://adlsupport.tradingtechnologies.com/Documentation/HowToLearnADL

ha!!


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## skyQuake

Apple shorts:




imo it really doesnt tell you much. After paying $$$ for accurate data: short interest, %lending available, %of lending used, etc, it didn't seem like there was any edge.

Its a very tricky area. Even with paid data


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## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> And only takes 50 hours to be an expert.
> 
> https://adlsupport.tradingtechnologies.com/Documentation/HowToLearnADL
> 
> ha!!




Haha exactly. Will be interesting to see what comes out of it, especially with our local stuff.


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## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> No time for it at the mo. May get back into one day but have bigger fish to flip than _trying _to post smart stuff for no one in particular.




Was/still is a great source TH.


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## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> Was/still is a great source TH.



 So you're the one.


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## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> So you're the one.




LOL! 

I tell my kids to visit on their iPhones too, sort of like pump and dump.


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## Starcraftmazter

skyQuake said:


> Apple shorts:
> View attachment 46412
> 
> 
> imo it really doesnt tell you much. After paying $$$ for accurate data: short interest, %lending available, %of lending used, etc, it didn't seem like there was any edge.
> 
> Its a very tricky area. Even with paid data




Cheers for that graph.


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## Trembling Hand

BOJ Monetary Policy Statement not doing the rally any favours. 
:


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## nomore4s

Bit of a down move in the last 10min or so, caught some of it but not enough.

Be interesting to see where the HSI heads into the close.


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## Trembling Hand

nomore4s said:


> Bit of a down move in the last 10min or so, caught some of it but not enough.
> 
> Be interesting to see where the HSI heads into the close.



 Going on recent form a fall into the DAX open to test the days lows then a rocket up to take out the days highs. Just another day on the psycho Seng 

Currencies all just lost a day of gains in 20 mins. And Nikkei about to go red.


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## notting

Markets rally as Greece is finally under control for the moment! 
Yeah right.  
I guess there's no need to worry about this either Spanish Standoff Over Budget Cuts Continues


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## Trembling Hand

LOL!! And the DAX gaps up to a new high!!


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## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL!! And the DAX gaps up to a new high!!




Is she leading, or following?





My usual hypothesis is more like 'cheap EUR = strong DAX', so I wouldn't just short 7000 off that chart but I thought it was pretty interesting.


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## Timmy

Retail sales in 10 mins ... FOMC later.


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## sinner

EURUSD pretty heavy tonight, but I was convinced there'd be a few pips long before anyone would get a chance for a clean 1.305 bid and managed to execute a good sized long exiting up into to 1.3066 after a couple of smaller spooked entries. Not a bad week so far 4 winners 3 losers (incl the spooked entries) with consistent execution of ideas.


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## Starcraftmazter

Markets don't like retail figures because it's bad for money printing?


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## Timmy

Starcraftmazter said:


> Markets don't like retail figures because it's bad for money printing?




Better than expected retail figs so from a trading perspective I'd say thats it spot on. Enough to spook a few longs and get them out. As I type the ES has just moved above the level it was at on the release so that trade is over, but was a goodie for the past coupla hours.

(Pls note my comments are from a day/v.short term trading perspective. Longer term players going to have different perspective)

ps/ Having said all this the business inventory numbers were higher than consensus, so mkt friendly in terms of increasing the potential for QE3 (is that the number we are up to now LOL?) ... The games we play ...


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## ThingyMajiggy

Dax smashes through 7000, SPI actually seems fairly strong too. Quite a night! Crude being crude, along with some nice 500 lot spoofing all the way up.

EDIT: LOL the farkin Dax, spikes through 7000 by 0.40% then straight back down and pokes below 7000 by 20 ticks!


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## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> EURUSD pretty heavy tonight.




Nutz night. But whats with AUD, CAD, etc going the wrong way(nowhere)?

PMs going south make sense but other commods? 

:silly:


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## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Nutz night. But whats with AUD, CAD, etc going the wrong way(nowhere)?
> 
> PMs going south make sense but other commods?
> 
> :silly:




The drill these days seems to be high asset class/class component correlation in down markets and low correlation in up markets.


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## sinner

Real tight in Tokyo today for AUDUSD, even if you catch the move there doesn't seem to be lots of meat in it. I was hoping for some more juice after the poor consumer sentiment and housing starts numbers.

A loser and two winners for +5 total, that'll do, might try and pick up a few more in London. Wednesday London my favourite trading session of the week!


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## Gringotts Bank

ThingyMajiggy said:


> TT are developing a platform for traders that have no coding experience to create algos, called ADL I think(I think it's in beta stages now). Looks really interesting, it's all visual based, don't need to code(although I'm sure you can as well) and it seems pretty intense too as in you can do quite a lot. It might make things interesting, I know a lot of guys are pretty excited about it, so there could be a algo-mad period where guys that don't really have much idea are creating these crazy algos that might not work, could get some weird things going on......maybe
> 
> 
> EDIT: Haha getting off topic straight away, my bad. *ahem* Asia up between 1-2%. There we go.




Sam, TT = Turbo Trader?

I'm a member of TT, but haven't seen anything about algos?


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## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sam, TT = Turbo Trader?
> 
> I'm a member of TT, but haven't seen anything about algos?




https://www.tradingtechnologies.com/

Mostly a prop and insto futs frontend.


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## skc

Would it be right to say that, the positions that pushed MF Global to bankruptcy have now all comeback?


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## sinner

skc said:


> Would it be right to say that, the positions that pushed MF Global to bankruptcy have now all comeback?




Hard to answer that q if you ask me skc, I mean it was all short term Gov debt, as long as those Govs didn't default there wasn't really a risk of MF bankruptcy...what caused the bankruptcy (imho) was the behaviour of JP Morgan and regulators. 

This article by London Banker says it best, I recommend both the article and the author.

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/survivor-bias-and-tbtf-tyranny.html

In regards to the securities themselves, most of the debt series they held have tightened the spread versus Germany again, but at the same time Portugal is significantly wider now than it was.


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## skc

sinner said:


> Hard to answer that q if you ask me skc, I mean it was all short term Gov debt, as long as those Govs didn't default there wasn't really a risk of MF bankruptcy...what caused the bankruptcy (imho) was the behaviour of JP Morgan and regulators.
> 
> This article by London Banker says it best, I recommend both the article and the author.
> 
> http://londonbanker.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/survivor-bias-and-tbtf-tyranny.html
> 
> In regards to the securities themselves, most of the debt series they held have tightened the spread versus Germany again, but at the same time Portugal is significantly wider now than it was.




From what I know it was the margin call that bankrupted them, not the realised loss (of which there wasn't any like you said if they are held to maturity).

I've never heard the theory of JPM doing them in before... I guess it isn't inconceivable in these times.

Anyway, it's all water under the bridge. But I think it gives a good illustration of the asymmetric nature of leveraged risk positions.


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## skyQuake

Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.


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## skc

skyQuake said:


> Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.




Is this movie tax deductible for the full time trader?

On second thought - Demi Moore? No thanks


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## Trembling Hand

Who through the spanner in? :grenade:


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## sinner

skyQuake said:


> Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.




I watched it. Thought it was O.K, especially for the directors first ever film. No trouble recommending it to watch.

Have you seen Rollover? 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083006/


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## Trembling Hand

just to add to my highly informative post above. China chart,


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## barney

I was going to say off topic, but I figure the topic here is "any thing goes"

AUD/USD just been hammered in the short term .......  Looks way overdone to me considering the rest of the market ...

I can't scalp to save my life, but it looks like an opportunity to scale some position/s to the "Long" side to me ............... Under 1.04800 I would re-assess that view


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## sinner

barney said:


> I was going to say off topic, but I figure the topic here is "any thing goes"
> 
> AUD/USD just been hammered in the short term .......  Looks way overdone to me considering the rest of the market ...
> 
> I can't scalp to save my life, but it looks like an opportunity to scale some position/s to the "Long" side to me ............... Under 1.04800 I would re-assess that view




Hmmm I dunno, I watch the SWFX market sentiment daily and 'liquidity providers' been net long (AUD 70% vs short 30% approx avg) for months now. Right when I look, liquidity providers have 
reduced AUD longs down to 50.13% i.e. barely net long!

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/

That is a large reduction for such a short duration, AUD position longs beware. Who knows, maybe the banks will increase to a larger net long again very quickly, but I would only be game to enter long position trades on a trendy breakout (which is quite a ways away yet).

EDIT: Whoops thats what you get for posting without looking at the chart, we are already down 1.047ish.


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## sinner

Psychology is a funny thing on the intraday, I find it very difficult to run an algo like I do on the daily for various models. Following hard rules on the very short term moves simply kills my account! 

Tonight on the EURUSD, 3 losers (small position size) and a winner (big position size). But the losers all came in a row, so when I finally got the move I wanted and sized for, was more concerned with getting back to even for the day than seeing where she would go. In the end it turned out ok for the night, but that concern got me out of the winner >10 pips earlier than otherwise.

The difference between an 'ok' night and a 'WooHoo Wednesday' night...


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## barney

barney said:


> Under 1.04800 I would re-assess that view





Note to self ...... Always go with Plan B 



sinner said:


> Hmmm I dunno, I watch the SWFX market sentiment daily and 'liquidity providers' been net long (AUD 70% vs short 30% approx avg) for months now. Right when I look, liquidity providers have
> reduced AUD longs down to 50.13% i.e. barely net long!
> 
> http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/
> 
> .




Thanks for the link Sinner.  

The GBP/JPY is interesting  ..... The Liquidity Consumers are overweight to the sell side but the Pair keep rising. Is that just the Punters hedging their positions?? (Prelude to a top??).......

Do you tend to follow the lead of the Liquidity Providers, or just look for imbalance in general?


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## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Psychology is a funny thing on the intraday.............
> 
> 
> Tonight on the EURUSD, 3 losers (small position size) and a winner (big position size).
> 
> In the end it turned out ok for the night, but that concern got me out of the winner >10 pips earlier than otherwise.




The 'trick' is to trade more. 4 trades in a day anything can happen. 100 trades in a day ya gotta be ahead . 

(assuming of course you find a system that can take that many trades profitably)


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## MRC & Co

See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!


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## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.




Def want to watch that one.


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## sinner

barney said:


> Thanks for the link Sinner.
> 
> The GBP/JPY is interesting  ..... The Liquidity Consumers are overweight to the sell side but the Pair keep rising. Is that just the Punters hedging their positions?? (Prelude to a top??).......




No that sounds about right, what it means is retail is stubbornly short while the instrument trends up.



> Do you tend to follow the lead of the Liquidity Providers, or just look for imbalance in general?




I don't follow their lead but I don't like being on the opposite side of a trade to them if my 'view' is expressed by the majority of retail and will generally size lower if so. I find it useful only for position/swing trades, I don't use it intraday. For example, I won't try and pick a bottom on a pair daily chart if that's what retail is trying to do.


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## MRC & Co

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sam, TT = Turbo Trader?
> 
> I'm a member of TT, but haven't seen anything about algos?




TT = Trading Technologies (I believe this is what Sam is talking about).

CQG also has a way of 'coding' which sounds similar to what TT is bringing out I believe.


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## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!



 Yeah two nasty days.

Will be interested to see where Asia goes today. We have had all sort of funky stuff going on. HSI, China etc tanked yesterday. AUD etc going south YM, Nas, Dax going up. 


What happened to the good old day when everything went up & down together. :


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## blue0810

MRC & Co said:


> See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!




i checked this morning  US:BND


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## sinner

MRC & Co said:


> See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!




I been waiting for the 2Y:10Y pair to move in line with the equity upmove/TED spread compression (or those two move back to meet the 2:10) for some time now! My perception was actually that bonds were signalling skepticism of the 2012 up-move. 

We haven't been here in the 2Y:10Y (front month rolling futs) since the start of Dec '11 or Oct '11 in the cash.


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## ThingyMajiggy

MRC & Co said:


> TT = Trading Technologies (I believe this is what Sam is talking about).
> 
> CQG also has a way of 'coding' which sounds similar to what TT is bringing out I believe.




Yep, Trading Technologies it is. TH posted a link earlier.


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## sinner

All over the shop today. I've taken a few ugly hits. 1.046 in the AUDUSD seems like it is becoming an important intraday line in the sand.


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## blue0810

MRC & Co said:


> See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!




Two  new  boring ( for share/indexes trader)  bond  ETFs  IAF & IGB are trading    on  the ASX . Both  of them are down    as it  was expected.


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## Timmy

The "Why I'm leaving Goldman Sachs" guy hasn't had much of a run on ASF. Pity, been some great work flowing from it. In the spirit of some banter ...

*Why I'm leaving Goldman Sachs *- Greg Smith
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?_r=2

*Why I am leaving the Empire*, by Darth Vader
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-i-am-leaving-the-empire,-by-darth-vader-201203145007/

*How to Quit a Job Without Publishing an Op-Ed* - Josh Brown
The paragraph starting with "2." contains the money quote  (language warning)
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/03/14/how-to-quit-a-job-without-publishing-an-op-ed/


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## skc

Timmy said:


> The "Why I'm leaving Goldman Sachs" guy hasn't had much of a run on ASF. Pity, been some great work flowing from it. In the spirit of some banter ..




This was a nice pickup from the Ian McIlwraith.



> ‘‘Anyone who feels otherwise has available to him or her a mechanism for anonymously expressing their concerns. We are not aware that the writer of the opinion piece expressed misgivings through this avenue.’’
> 
> Umm, but if it is anonymous, why would you be aware?
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/goldman-in-damage-control-mode-20120315-1v7hx.html#ixzz1pAMQyZxN


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## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> *Why I am leaving the Empire*, by Darth Vader
> http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-i-am-leaving-the-empire,-by-darth-vader-201203145007/




Good one


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## MRC & Co

sinner said:


> All over the shop today. I've taken a few ugly hits. 1.046 in the AUDUSD seems like it is becoming an important intraday line in the sand.




You should have been long bonds!    Never saw them dropping off a cliff like that!  

Luckily was all over the silver and gold shorts which were far larger contracts and so covered it, but still a painful experience.

Oh and tried to catch a falling knife on JGBs today, don't try it at home, doesn't end pretty!


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## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> You should have been long bonds!    Never saw them dropping off a cliff like that!




Didn't they break two nights ago?


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## barney

sinner said:


> No that sounds about right, what it means is retail is stubbornly short while the instrument trends up.





Cheers Sinner,

Considering Timmy's post above regarding the Goldman Sachs guy, it makes you wonder who's interests are being served by the Brokers and Hedgies holding shorts into this rally on the GBP/JPY

You'd say they had deep pockets to keep holding into the rise ..... but if they are using their clients money ............ no big deal

That being said though, there was a lot of money made on the short side on this pair not so long back.

A bit of a retrace going on tonight, but if the Banks are overweight on longs, they surely won't let this rollover for a few days yet ... then again, I thought the Aussie dollar was going to go up last night   ....... always a day early !! ..... if only I was born a day later, I would be a wealthy man


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## sinner

barney said:


> Cheers Sinner,
> 
> Considering Timmy's post above regarding the Goldman Sachs guy, it makes you wonder who's interests are being served by the Brokers and Hedgies holding shorts into this rally on the GBP/JPY
> 
> You'd say they had deep pockets to keep holding into the rise ..... but if they are using their clients money ............ no big deal




It's not like hedge funds and brokers are stealing their clients money to make the trade. It's more like the difference between weak hands and strong hands. 

Liquidity providers are just 'doing their job' taking the other side of a trade and running a book. They aren't under capitalised, or over leveraged. Liquidity consumers are trading for speculation, usually on leverage. As an aggregate, they tend more often to be wrong than right in that speculation, often spectacularly so. Because rather than deep pockets they have margin, usually when wrong they will be forced to exit at an unfavorable price.


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## barney

sinner said:


> It's not like hedge funds and brokers are stealing their clients money to make the trade. It's more like the difference between weak hands and strong hands.
> 
> Liquidity providers are just 'doing their job' taking the other side of a trade and running a book. They aren't under capitalised, or over leveraged. Liquidity consumers are trading for speculation, usually on leverage. As an aggregate,* they tend more often to be wrong than right* in that speculation, often spectacularly so. Because rather than deep pockets they have margin, usually when wrong they will be *forced to exit at an unfavorable price*.




Well described ..........  the Bold bits I am unfortunately too familiar with  ..... improving though


----------



## Timmy

Frikkin' internets. 
Drop-out city at my place tonight. 
Actually, not frikkin' internets, frikkin' phone line.

Gonna be an early night


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Didn't they break two nights ago?




Yep, this is on a daily strat, not intraday and unfortunately the daily strat used the initial break to pick up more longs!  EEEEK.

At least there is a bit more movement in markets now and not just binary accross the board moves.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> Frikkin' internets.
> Drop-out city at my place tonight.
> Actually, not frikkin' internets, frikkin' phone line.
> 
> Gonna be an early night



 Ha! Must be something in the air in melb.
Woke up to a fried computer this morn.
:shoot: c:

No trading today just a day to let the inner geek out with a screwdriver, put together manual & visa card.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Must be something in the air in melb.
> Woke up to a fried computer this morn.
> :shoot: c:
> 
> No trading today just a day to let the inner geek out with a screwdriver, put together manual & visa card.




My computers are all fine! :

I don't trade intraday on Fridays anyway. Geekery is my business, let me know if you need any help.


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Must be something in the air in melb.
> Woke up to a fried computer this morn.
> :shoot: c:
> 
> No trading today just a day to let the inner geek out with a screwdriver, put together manual & visa card.




I think I found the problem in my line. Funny knot. I replaced the string. If that doesn't work I might have to get a new tin can on one end, or even both.

Drop outs have halted. Still


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What time does Shanghai open?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What time does Shanghai open?




15 mins ago (12:30pm AEST). Hang Seng futures also open at 12:15pm.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Starcraftmazter said:


> 15 mins ago (12:30pm AEST). Hang Seng futures also open at 12:15pm.




Yeah that's what I thought, hmm chart isn't working properly 

Thanks


----------



## cynic

howmanyru said:


> Don't know about others but I am getting nervous about the DJIA approaching its pre GFC highs. I mean, what has actually been fixed since then?




Well apart from the significant inflationary impacts from the provision of liquidity via the various QE programmes, bailouts etc. several of  the pre GFC DOW components have since been substituted by better performers. In effect the USD has been devalued in real terms and in real terms the DOW is still a fair way down from its' pre GFC high. Whilst the DOW does still remain an index of 30 companies - they are not the same 30 companies! 



> ...   Bank of America and Chevron replaced Altria and Honeywell International on
> Feb. 19, 2008. Kraft Foods replaced American International Group  on
> Sept. 22, 2008. On June 8, 2009, Travelers Cos replaced Citigroup Inc ,
> and Cisco Systems replaced General Motors Corp.
> 
> Source: Thomson Reuters Data




Whilst I understand that the western financial world is in love with the mighty DOW, I am somewhat mystified as to the reason why anyone would consider this index as a reasonable measure of economic performance - especially given the  creativity with which it is modified, thereby maintaining its skyward bias. Having said all this, I do of course still avail myself of it's usefulness in predicting short/medium term trends/sentiment of the market "herd".  For an active trader to totally ignore the "herd's" faith in this indicator, no matter how misplaced, could be reasonably considered as hazardous to one's wealth.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Must be something in the air in melb.
> Woke up to a fried computer this morn.
> :shoot: c:
> 
> No trading today just a day to let the inner geek out with a screwdriver, put together manual & visa card.




Sorry to hear about your logistical mishap T/H. 

Given your well earned reputation as a successful trader, I was a little surprised that you didn't have more comprehensive contingencies in place for technological mishaps (which whilst regrettable can be reasonably expected to occur to anyone whom relies on such technology on a continual basis).

Whilst I am sure that your IT workspace is far more elaborate than my own, I would have thought that having replacement equipment prepped and on standby would have been a must for any day trader. Surely the proceeds of the one good day's trading that one could potentially miss out on (in the event of technological failure) would go a long way towards compensating for the cost of the duplicate computer equipment required, would it not?


----------



## sinner

Quiet today. I kind of get the feeling price is jumping around looking for some volume.


----------



## skc

cynic said:


> Whilst I am sure that your IT workspace is far more elaborate than my own, I would have thought that having replacement equipment prepped and on standby would have been a must for any day trader. Surely the proceeds of the one good day's trading that one could potentially miss out on (in the event of technological failure) would go a long way towards compensating for the cost of the duplicate computer equipment required, would it not?




It's less about missing a day's work. More importantly protection against failure when you have a full clip.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Interesting that the SPI has come off around 0.80% from the US high last night, currently down around 0.50% from that point while the Emini has come off around 0.20%. Although the AUD rallied last night, guess this has some impact?


----------



## MRC & Co

^^^^^

Yep, SPI always weak when AUD rallies.  Plus S&P never has as high beta to Asian indices during Asian timezone.  

Protection against failure when you have a full clip is your stop order or phone broking generally.  Never heard of anybody having 2 computers, 1 simply as a backup if the other fails (aside of course from insto who normally have many trading computers anyways).


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> Sorry to hear about your logistical mishap T/H.
> 
> Given your well earned reputation as a successful trader, I was a little surprised that you didn't have more comprehensive contingencies in place for technological mishaps (which whilst regrettable can be reasonably expected to occur to anyone whom relies on such technology on a continual basis).
> 
> Whilst I am sure that your IT workspace is far more elaborate than my own, I would have thought that having replacement equipment prepped and on standby would have been a must for any day trader. Surely the proceeds of the one good day's trading that one could potentially miss out on (in the event of technological failure) would go a long way towards compensating for the cost of the duplicate computer equipment required, would it not?




Na na na. I got plenty of redundancy. Three internet services, 2 desk tops fully loaded and ready to trade, plus a laptop always on and one in the cupboard, and a smart phone!!!!!

I think that's enough. It's just my main comp clapped out. Perfect excuse to go out and load up on a new latest fangdangled monster.

This baby is going to suck more power than the MCG light towers.
:knightrid


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

MRC & Co said:


> ^^^^^
> 
> Yep, SPI always weak when AUD rallies.  Plus S&P never has as high beta to Asian indices during Asian timezone.




Yeah, what about Wednesday night though? AUD falls 100+ pips and SPI was still weaker than S&P. What does it have the highest beta to? Nikkei? Shanghai? 

LOL TH, city lights go dim when you turn your machine on. I just got a new machine too, mine crapped itself the other day as well, must be this time of year! Gotta love a new PC though :bananasmi


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Na na na. I got plenty of redundancy. Three internet services, 2 desk tops fully loaded and ready to trade, plus a laptop always on and one in the cupboard, and a smart phone!!!!!
> 
> I think that's enough. It's just my main comp clapped out. Perfect excuse to go out and load up on a new latest fangdangled monster.
> 
> This baby is going to suck more power than the MCG light towers.
> :knightrid




Apologies T/H, I misunderstood your situation, so thanks for clarifying. My confidence in your foresight is restored.



MRC & Co said:


> ...  Never heard of anybody having 2 computers, 1 simply as a backup if the other fails (aside of course from insto who normally have many trading computers anyways).




Are you for real!?

What about a retail trader with three desktops, two laptops, two internet accounts (one wireless one landline), UPS and portable electricity generator (in case of power outages etc).. Have you heard of one of those?


----------



## MRC & Co

cynic said:


> What about a retail trader with three desktops, two laptops, two internet accounts (one wireless one landline), UPS and portable electricity generator (in case of power outages etc).. Have you heard of one of those?




Well I see some (TH and your eloquent self) do have an entirely replicated box.  A laptop is not going to do the job if your trying to replace a trading station for an entire day of proper work in the markets, you can't do the same job without the entire set-up.

Na, never heard of a UPS, don't even know what the acronym stands for, but I have heard of a portable electricity generator   (do I get a gold star?), but fortunately I don't trade from home so don't need to be in the know on hardware.


----------



## MRC & Co

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah, what about Wednesday night though? AUD falls 100+ pips and SPI was still weaker than S&P. What does it have the highest beta to? Nikkei? Shanghai?




I don't watch SPI intraday anymore, but I would go with any of the other Asian equity indices.  Watching S&P for clues on SPI movement is rarely useful (although sometimes it can pop and the SPI will try and follow).


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I just got a new machine too, mine crapped itself the other day as well, must be this time of year! Gotta love a new PC though :bananasmi





Got a new one myself about 12 months ago ..... so its now a bona fide dinosaur

Close to upgrade time so curious on what Comp setup others are running / IP speeds etc etc  

I just ran a 3MB speed test and got ... Line Speed 4.97 Mbps (4967 kbps)   Download Speed 621 KB/s (0.61 MB/s ........ Is that up to scratch?


----------



## skc

barney said:


> Got a new one myself about 12 months ago ..... so its now a bona fide dinosaur
> 
> Close to upgrade time so curious on what Comp setup others are running / IP speeds etc etc
> 
> I just ran a 3MB speed test and got ... Line Speed 4.97 Mbps (4967 kbps)   Download Speed 621 KB/s (0.61 MB/s ........ Is that up to scratch?




My line speed is 8.77Mbps, d/l speed is 1.07MB/s.

If you are using ADSL it depends mostly on your distance to the exchange. 

And unless you are doing some really quick scalps I wouldn't think it matters that much.


----------



## barney

skc said:


> My line speed is 8.77Mbps, d/l speed is 1.07MB/s.
> 
> If you are using ADSL it depends mostly on your distance to the exchange.
> 
> And unless you are doing some really quick scalps I wouldn't think it matters that much.




Cheers SKC  .......  Almost double my country NSW speed ..... you must be a City dweller:


----------



## cynic

MRC & Co said:


> Well I see some (TH and your eloquent self) do have an entirely replicated box.  A laptop is not going to do the job if your trying to replace a trading station for an entire day of proper work in the markets, you can't do the same job without the entire set-up.
> 
> Na, never heard of a UPS, don't even know what the acronym stands for, but I have heard of a portable electricity generator   (do I get a gold star?), but fortunately I don't trade from home so don't need to be in the know on hardware.




Yes , you are quite right, I can be a bit blunt when responding to posts where my opinion differs, so thankyou for demonstrating the diplomacy that my earlier post lacked. 

Apologies for not detailing the UPS acronym. The Uninterruptible Power Supply (if my foggy memory serves me correctly) is basically just a gadget that connects between the power point and the modem/computer/monitor (or other mains powered equipment) and ensures that power continues for at least a short period of time in the event of a power outage. This gives me ample time to start up the generator thereby ensuring zero downtime. Now that I am equipped with wireless broadband as well as ADSL, the portable generator is very probably redundant (unless of course the wireless service has an outage). 

I am not sure that you would want to receive an award (gold star) from someone with my reputation as you may be perceived in a similar vein. Having said that, I've read many of your posts and have rarely had cause to disagree with your insights and analysis. 

I am uncertain as to your definition of "proper work" but would agree that it is more comfortable (although not essential) trading with a well equipped work station rather than just a solitary laptop.



MRC & Co said:


> I don't watch SPI intraday anymore, but I would go with any of the other Asian equity indices.




+1

I quite agree - I experienced the SPI futures as very suitable for several of my scalping strategies up until mid 2007. During the GFC the intraday behaviour changed significantly and there was a corresponding change to my success rate. The rapid deterioration of my account balance during 2008 convinced me to let go of my determination to conquer the SPI futures and experiment with the trading of other instruments. For the past year my instruments of choice have been derivatives of the FTSE and the DAX. Although I have recently discontinued trading the DAX (volatility of the past six months was unsuitable for my preferred trading style), the FTSE has continued to exhibit behaviours that are within my comfort zone. If not for the unsuitability of the market hours I would happily trade Hang Seng (or possibly Nikkei) futures/derivatives, but with a slightly more aggressive strategy than that with which I trade the FTSE.


----------



## MRC & Co

What do you do for work out of interest cynic?  You have quite the writing style, interesting.

Mkts volatile again tonight!  Weak CPI and USD falls (standard), but then weak industrial production and capacity utilization, everyone loads up on more short USD and it rallies.  hahaha, standard, gotta be logical enough to avoid being completely logical, I think they call it contrarian!


----------



## cynic

MRC & Co said:


> What do you do for work out of interest cynic?  You have quite the writing style, interesting.




Thanks for your interest MRC. 

I've replied to your question in the General Chat thread entitled:

 "Interesting poll: What is your occupation?"


----------



## Timmy

> Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, and Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO, will host a Conference Call on Monday, March 19, 2012 at 6:00 a.m. PT to announce the outcome of the Company's discussions concerning its cash balance. Apple will not be providing an update on the current quarter nor will any topics be discussed other than cash.



http://investor.apple.com/

That's 9 am NY time.


----------



## skc

Timmy said:


> http://investor.apple.com/
> 
> That's 9 am NY time.




Free cash with every New Ipad purchase?


----------



## sinner

Timmy said:


> http://investor.apple.com/
> 
> That's 9 am NY time.




I wonder where Apple is holding all it's so called 'cash'? I doubt they actually have even 1% of that in real at call money, rather they have loaned 100 billion in short term loans to some entity like the US Treasury (such as buying and rolling 100 billion in 13 week bills). Someone who watches the Apple balance sheet could probably tell us what security they use to 'save'.

I wonder how that entity will cope if Apple decides to halve its loan? As an example, Democrats and Republicans currently fighting over the debt ceiling are arguing over just $19 billion in spending cuts which they argue *must be seen through* before the next debt ceiling raise.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Damn can you imagine if they decide to pay more dividends or do a large buyback? It will drag everything up so much. Complete market distortion.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> Damn can you imagine if they decide to pay more dividends or do a large buyback? It will drag everything up so much. Complete market distortion.




huh?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> huh?




I'm referring to Apple making up a lot of nasdaq and even sp500. A lot of this rally has been Apple so far, and this might simply magnify it's effect.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> I'm referring to Apple making up a lot of nasdaq and even sp500. A lot of this rally has been Apple so far, and this might simply magnify it's effect.




So why will that "drag everything up so much" or how will it completely distort the market?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> So why will that "drag everything up so much" or how will it completely distort the market?




Because it makes up a very large part of those indexes, so when it goes up the index is likely to go up (at least more so than otherwise).

It's like BHP and the asx200, but Apple is even bigger.


Then one failed product launch and bam.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> Because it makes up a very large part of those indexes, so when it goes up the index is likely to go up (at least more so than otherwise).
> 
> It's like BHP and the asx200, but Apple is even bigger.
> 
> 
> Then one failed product launch and bam.




I completely understand index components, and their size contribution moves to the overlying index. 

What I don't understand, and not sure why you keep talking about index component size, is why you think Apple using their 'cash' will drag everything higher or completely distort the market?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> I completely understand index components, and their size contribution moves to the overlying index.
> 
> What I don't understand, and not sure why you keep talking about index component size, is why you think Apple using their 'cash' will drag everything higher or completely distort the market?




No; I'm saying Apple's share price is already distorting the indexes to some degree since it has gone parabolic and is arguably in a bubble. Through this it has dragged up the US markets and other markets rather unwillingly.

Should Apple should to use their very vast cash reserves to boost their share price directly, then the above will be even more so.


----------



## sammy84

Starcraftmazter said:


> No; I'm saying Apple's share price is already distorting the indexes to some degree since it has gone parabolic and is arguably in a bubble. Through this it has dragged up the US markets and other markets rather unwillingly.
> 
> Should Apple should to use their very vast cash reserves to boost their share price directly, then the above will be even more so.




I'm with Sinner here. Nothing has been distorted.

Apple is a bull phase. They make up a large part of the NASDAQ. When they go up, so should the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ has not been distorted.

The fact that other companies which are constituents of other indexes also go up on the back of Apple's rise does not necessarily mean that they have been distorted. It just means that some companies trend in line with Apple.

Many companies that make up the Dow Transportation average haven't gone up, we can't blame Apple for that.


----------



## marknz88

sinner said:


> I completely understand index components, and their size contribution moves to the overlying index.
> 
> What I don't understand, and not sure why you keep talking about index component size, is why you think Apple using their 'cash' will drag everything higher or completely distort the market?




Talk is that if Apple do pay a dividend, it will open the flood gates for a whole new breed of investor. There are a lot of pension funds etc that only invest in dividend paying stocks. Guess who will be number #1 on their list if Apple do announce a dividend. This is also the primary reason for the current rush into Apple stock for hedge funds during the past quarter. 

Who would blame them if they can make 20%+ return while entering at all time high prices.

I guess you can say that all this blue sky talk in Apple is distorting what is really going on behind the scenes in the global economy. One company heading to the moon does not change the **** hole the global economy as a whole is in. However it sure as hell helps drag US indexes straight up as illustrated by the current quarters charts.

Edit: Obviously Apple isn't the only reason for stock indexes going straight up (Fed easing duh), but all one has to do is look at relative sector returns and tech is clearly out shining. And within tech, Apple is a clear leader this quarter and due to it's index weighting, has a decent flow on effect into other index components.


----------



## sinner

sammy84 said:


> It just means that some companies trend in line with Apple.




Thanks sammy. Even simpler than above is that:

NASDAQ (including Apple!) stocks trend in line with their corresponding portion of the economy. That is all. 

As quantitative financial research has indicated at least a few times, momentum is a stronger phenomenon in stocks which have no 'futures backing'. e.g. momentum is stronger (and actually profitable) in Consumer Discretionary than say, Copper Miners because unlike the miners, there is no futures market which allows a 'live' evaluation of input profits, etc.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

marknz88 said:


> I guess you can say that all this blue sky talk in Apple is distorting what is really going on behind the scenes in the global economy. One company heading to the moon does not change the **** hole the global economy as a whole is in. However it sure as hell helps drag US indexes straight up as illustrated by the current quarters charts.




That is precisely why I think it's a distortion. Then it becomes about analysing Apple more than the economy in terms of trying to figure out what the stock markets are going to do.


Furthermore, it is not only NASDAQ but the SP500 as well.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> That is precisely why I think it's a distortion. Then it becomes about analysing Apple more than the economy in terms of trying to figure out what the stock markets are going to do.
> 
> 
> Furthermore, it is not only NASDAQ but the SP500 as well.




lulwut? Come on dude. The 'index' is not the economy, it's just a set of rules. In this case, the index rules are the 100 largest companies by weighted market cap. Apple fits that rule. 

*That is all*.

If you find it problematic, why dont you use composite or equal weight indices instead, like NASDAQ composite, NYSE composite to 'analyse the economy'? For the record, the equal weight QQQ looks not that different from the regular Qs, so I'm not really sure how valid your Apple claims are.




Of course this is what happens when you take your view verbatim from the blogosphere without checking against reality...


----------



## Starcraftmazter

The issue is not the weighting so much as the fact that Apple stock is in a bubble.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> The issue is not the weighting so much as the fact that Apple stock is in a bubble.




Ok mate, no worries I am clearly having trouble understanding your point after a page of discussion.

I thought we were talking about this



> Damn can you imagine if they decide to pay more dividends or do a large buyback? It will drag everything up so much. Complete market distortion.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

That simply means at the most fundamental level that such actions by Apple will cause their stock price to rise much higher - well ahead of what it would be otherwise.

This in turn will push the sp500 and nasdaq higher than otherwise. None of this will have anything to do with future earnings growth which stock markets are meant to track.

Savy?


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> That simply means at the most fundamental level that such actions by Apple will cause their stock price to rise much higher - well ahead of what it would be otherwise.
> 
> This in turn will push the sp500 and nasdaq higher than otherwise. None of this will have anything to do with future earnings growth which stock markets are meant to track.
> 
> Savy?




Err right. Apple pays dividends, thereby reducing their market cap significantly, which in turn reduces their weighting on the indices, which in turn induces selling of Apple by recalibrating index funds...and somehow this process will shoot Apple shares "much higher". 

Buying back shares might boost EPS but I don't see how it will have any "much higher" affect on the share price.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

sinner said:


> Buying back shares might boost EPS but I don't see how it will have any "much higher" affect on the share price.




Speculative bubbles tend to do that.


----------



## skyQuake

An announcement of a buyback might have a positive effect initially, but after that why should it rally?

Share buyback means smaller market cap if prices stay the same... ie less shares on issue.


----------



## sinner

skyQuake said:


> An announcement of a buyback might have a positive effect initially, but after that why should it rally?
> 
> Share buyback means smaller market cap if prices stay the same... ie less shares on issue.




That's exactly what I'm having trouble with. The market has known of Apples large cash position for a long time now and speculation that they would do something with it for just as long. What possible announcement could occur that isn't anticipated?

Where is skc when you need him...


----------



## sammy84

sinner said:


> What possible announcement could occur that isn't anticipated?




They plan to use the excess cash to buy half of Google.


----------



## notting

sammy84 said:


> They plan to use the excess cash to buy half of Google.




No. They should buy Hollywood.
Apple TV - the last frontier.
Imagine if they did with that what they did to music!


----------



## professor_frink

I'm lightening positions up at the these levels. Recent rally has run up at a speed I'm not entirely comfortable with.

At best I reckon we track sideways for a couple of weeks


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Apple does a dividend and a share buyback - it's sp moves beyond $600, dragging everything up with it. See this is precisely what I meant.

Also, what sort of a company spends half of it's cash reserves propping up it's stock value? Like...what does that say about their capital management? Surely that money would have been better invested into something.


----------



## professor_frink

Starcraftmazter said:


> Apple does a dividend and a share buyback - it's sp moves beyond $600, dragging everything up with it. See this is precisely what I meant.
> 
> Also, what sort of a company spends half of it's cash reserves propping up it's stock value? Like...what does that say about their capital management? Surely that money would have been better invested into something.




Obviously not, otherwise they'd do that and not pay a dividend

Like...I think they may have thought a little bit about what to do with that large chunk of cash.


----------



## Timmy

Starcraftmazter said:


> More like because their products are insanely marked up. $500 for a Gig of ram? Please.




You are now trolling.
The topic of your misunderstanding of how indices are calculated and how individual company's share price can move an index may well be a topic for another thread, which you are free to start. 

This thread is for traders. Do not post in this thread unless you are willing to engage with reason.


----------



## sinner

Starcraftmazter said:


> You posted two stupid images




For the record, I thought the images were both great! 

Maybe it's a geek thing.

Nice move up in the EURUSD last night which I missed, because I was watching Spartacus: Vengeance.

frinky



> At best I reckon we track sideways for a couple of weeks




I tend to agree, but with a twist. Considering how low volatility has been (I see EURUSD, CL and ES all hitting twelve month ATR lows) will we get a volatility 'spike' that will act as the sideways range boundary? Much like the action pre/post flash crash and pre/post Jul/Aug 11.

Time to start lowering position sizes, increasing stops and generally being more careful/nimble on the discretionary side.


----------



## Timmy

sinner said:


> For the record, I thought the images were both great!
> 
> Maybe it's a geek thing.
> 
> Nice move up in the EURUSD last night which I missed, because I was watching Spartacus: Vengeance.
> 
> frinky
> 
> 
> 
> I tend to agree, but with a twist. Considering how low volatility has been (I see EURUSD, CL and ES all hitting twelve month ATR lows) will we get a volatility 'spike' that will act as the sideways range boundary? Much like the action pre/post flash crash and pre/post Jul/Aug 11.
> 
> Time to start lowering position sizes, increasing stops and generally being more careful/nimble on the discretionary side.




I thought the moves in AAPL on Thursday were suspicious, and when I heard the news there was to be conference call on Monday I was sure last night was going to see a sell-off in both it and the market. Wrong (yet again ).


----------



## notting

This morning I heard, “Apple Euphoria, all good things must come to an end, SP does an 8% dip, at some point during the year, from the years starting price.” 
When it starts to sound like that it’s getting closer.


----------



## blue0810

notting said:


> This morning I heard, “Apple Euphoria, all good things must come to an end, SP does an 8% dip, at some point during the year, from the years starting price.”
> When it starts to sound like that it’s getting closer.




Agree 100%.
When ?    That’s the $$$$ million question


----------



## notting

I must think it's NOW!
As I have started adjusting for it!!
However, in general I find it better to ignore myself!


----------



## blue0810

I’ve got it ! .  BTW I like fruits   i.e apple ,lemon  ,etc.


----------



## sinner

blue0810 said:


> I’ve got it ! .  BTW I like fruits   i.e apple ,lemon  ,etc.




hahahaha I dunno whether you're being serious or not, but *"LULU Lemon"* is one of the other (along with AAPL, CMG) momo stocks that everyone loves to hate.


----------



## blue0810

didn't know that  tacos   are  the basket that fruits


----------



## sinner

I am excited about tonights session, no idea which way I'm trading yet it seems.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I am excited about tonights session, no idea which way I'm trading yet it seems.



I'm excited already,




look at the volume too....... nice market.....


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm excited already,
> 
> View attachment 46500
> 
> 
> look at the volume too....... nice market.....




Those lines look kinda donchy to me : didn't expect to see those! 

I am guessing they are for fades since you mentioned getting caught short on that updraft the other day?


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> frinky
> 
> I tend to agree, but with a twist. Considering how low volatility has been (I see EURUSD, CL and ES *all hitting twelve month ATR lows*) will we get a volatility 'spike' that will act as the sideways range boundary? Much like the action pre/post flash crash and pre/post Jul/Aug 11.
> 
> Time to start lowering position sizes, increasing stops and generally being more careful/nimble on the discretionary side.




Sorry to quote myself but I just spotted a rather interesting and related (bolded above) chart on ZH. It's a table produced by GS and since I'm not sure about the legalities of posting it here, I'll just link instead. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/skewered

Chart title is "Global pricing (% spot): 1m-95% Puts"

ZH (or in this case Capital Context specifically) is highlighting skew and how cheap SPY puts are, but I noticed XJO puts are running even cheaper. 0.38% vs 0.47% for SPY. Qs are running much higher at 0.68%.

Aside from my often retarded speculation in cheap index puts (Taleb wannabe), I run a proper (long) volatility model on the meager sizes I can run, which limits me to only a few indices. Right now it's more interested in GDX than anything else. Seems like Oil is crucifying gold miners.


----------



## professor_frink

sinner said:


> For the record, I thought the images were both great!
> 
> Maybe it's a geek thing.
> 
> Nice move up in the EURUSD last night which I missed, because I was watching Spartacus: Vengeance.
> 
> frinky
> 
> 
> 
> I tend to agree, but with a twist. Considering how low volatility has been (I see EURUSD, CL and ES all hitting twelve month ATR lows) will we get a volatility 'spike' that will act as the sideways range boundary? Much like the action pre/post flash crash and pre/post Jul/Aug 11.
> 
> Time to start lowering position sizes, increasing stops and generally being more careful/nimble on the discretionary side.




I dunno, this recent acceleration of the rally doesn't really seem to happen very often, well at least not after such a shallow dip anyway, so I'm having a hard time framing any possible future patterns based on the way it has played out so far.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Those lines look kinda donchy to me : didn't expect to see those!
> 
> I am guessing they are for fades since you mentioned getting caught short on that updraft the other day?




Which line are you speaking of?


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Which line are you speaking of?




21147, 20754


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> 21147, 20754




Oh! No they are just the days high and lows. I was just referring to the expanding range of the 5 min bars and along with that the extra volume.


----------



## sinner

Aussie ready to pop! 

I took a nice one that ran much harder than anticipated, she's still running as I write this so I obviously got out too early. I didn't think R would fail.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Aussie ready to pop!



as has everything else!


----------



## sinner

Good intraday juice on the AUDUSD today. Both R and then S that I expected to hold ended up failing, but I'm doing ok today. Calling it quits until NY probably, lots of other stuff happening keeping me busy.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Some squggily lines,  

52 week highs healthy in the latest push up to now,





but my this squiggly Adv/Dec line looks like we have hit resistance,




Commods looking poor as well. I'd say Monday short the hell out of this sucker.


----------



## professor_frink

Trembling Hand said:


> Some squggily lines,
> 
> 52 week highs healthy in the latest push up to now,
> 
> View attachment 46517
> 
> 
> but my this squiggly Adv/Dec line looks like we have hit resistance,
> 
> View attachment 46516
> 
> 
> Commods looking poor as well. I'd say Monday short the hell out of this sucker.




Yen looked a little stronger last night too, might be one to keep and eye on over the next few sessions


----------



## MRC & Co

Most leading indicators still haven't picked up with the recent data, suggesting we will get a downward move in trend data over the coming months.  This could really flush out the market, given the move we saw in bonds on 'good data', the real scare may be to the equity longs and the bond move simply diverting the attention.

April is more bearish than May seasonally, so I could see some starting to frontrun the month of April (I'm starting to turn bearish right now, but frustrating to see Asia once again try to move these mkts up).  This all lines up with 52 wk highs/lows and adv/dec.  Look out below I think!


----------



## Trembling Hand

WOT the @#$% is that ?


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> WOT the @#$% is that ?




The rally?


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> WOT the @#$% is that ?




Yeeeeeeehawwwwww :cowboy:


----------



## Timmy

This?
HSBC Flash China Mfg PMI: 48.1 actual vs. 49.7 prior


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> The rally?




Nah the smack down. I'm short as short can be but I'd like to know what this is


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah the smack down. I'm short as short can be but I'd like to know what this is
> 
> View attachment 46519




HSBC Flash China Mfg PMI: 48.1 actual vs. 49.7 prior


----------



## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> This?
> HSBC Flash China Mfg PMI: 48.1 actual vs. 49.7 prior




Nah couldn't be....... could it?

Never mind I'm long now


----------



## Trembling Hand

Err spewed that up quick smart


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Err spewed that up quick smart




Cowboys only, bystanders stand aside!


----------



## MRC & Co

haha, I'm short to the **** also, but got flipped long on one possie right before tank.  Still luckily short about 12 diff mkts right now and long the bonds!  Asia was hurting my soul before that!


----------



## sinner

Well, that was sweet. I'm done for the week bwuahahahahah.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yesterday I posted my squiggly Adv/Dec using the Nasdaq data and didn't look at the NYSE. Have a look at how sick the rally has been from the nasty drop around the 8th,




Long the VIX anyone?


----------



## sinner

> Long the VIX anyone?




Better vol opportunities out there than the SP500, imho. Like I said, take a look at GDX or the Philly Gold/Silver Index ($XAU).


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Better vol opportunities out there than the SP500, imho. Like I said, take a look at GDX or the Philly Gold/Silver Index ($XAU).




Yeah I was more so just commenting on the chance of increased volatility rather than a direct trade.


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah I was more so just commenting on the chance of increased volatility rather than a direct trade.




Dang, I was actually musing a long vol trade yesterday. Prev settlement of 14.55 is lowest settle since June 2007 (13.01)


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Dang, I was actually musing a long vol trade yesterday. Prev settlement of 14.55 is lowest settle since June 2007 (13.01)




Is VXX the only instrument to get exposure on the VIX? (Aside from reconstituting a Put on S&P500).

I've bought a few VXX future options before and you can get pretty good leverage despite pretty average spread. The problem was they only trade in US market hours and I like my beauty sleep.


----------



## Trembling Hand

If you are really adventurous there is a HSI vix. No trades, no volume, huge spread!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/hangseng-volatilty-idUSTOE70U07G20110131


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> Is VXX the only instrument to get exposure on the VIX? (Aside from reconstituting a Put on S&P500).




A front month long ATM straddle is quite close. You can get them on ES so I assume they trade Globex hours. I have gained some experience with these now and like them, especially in regards to position sizing since the leverage is 'implicit' in the contract. mazza also mentioned variance swaps as the 'pure' instrument for use to me once but I haven't played with them. Bill Luby (from vixandmore) apparently prefers VIX fut calls but he does mention the straddle as the most liquid option and over the longer term more likely to trend than mean revert.

Good advice from him in this link on what is 'best' depending on the scenario (roll yield, length of trade, etc) 

http://www.optionpundit.net/interviews/bill-luby-talks-to-optionpundit

EDIT: Oops almost forgot, in regards to roll yield etc you can fit VIX futs exposure nicely into a model like this
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1127213


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee Taiwan and the Kospi really snuffed out that Monday morning rally.


----------



## Timmy

Got some liquidity-draining POMOs coming up today, then again on Thursday.
Unfriendly?


----------



## MRC & Co

This is about as quiet as it gets, even for Asia!  Quiet before the storm it feels......but which way?  I'm still bearish over coming few wks, but not quite as sure over next few days, wouldn't be overly surprised to see a real dash higher just to cause as much pain for potential shorts as possible.....


----------



## notting

Perhaps another sell off in the bond markets to remind the us all of the cost of being unable to pay interest on huge debts might be the trick!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bernanke saw that 'the market' was playing with his Treasury yields so had to do something, even though it was only rhetoric, at this stage anyway. Are we looking at some shorts going into the qtr close as they window dress? Long VIX and/or Short Dow anyone?? So tempting...the Dow is so out of align with everything??


----------



## MRC & Co

Yep, since Bernanke spoke last night, the broad based asset pump has come back to the fore, extending on into tonight so far also.


----------



## notting

Just heard that options that are used to hedge against S&P are at their highest level in *5 years!!!**:goodnight*


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Just heard that options that are used to hedge against S&P are at their highest level in *5 years!!!**:goodnight*




The markets just ignoring the internals....


----------



## skyQuake

Why wouldn't you? VIX at lowest in a long time, oppies are cheap!

I'm surprised IG has a tradable VIX. Might come in handy


----------



## MRC & Co

Yep, vol is very low which stacks up seasonally (in addition to the liquidity flush), but it seems intraday vol is still there, just not on a daily timeframe.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Yep, vol is very low which stacks up seasonally (in addition to the liquidity flush), but it seems *intraday vol is still there*, just not on a daily timeframe.





Come back to the dark side MRC :vader:


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Why wouldn't you? VIX at lowest in a long time, oppies are cheap!
> 
> I'm surprised IG has a tradable VIX. Might come in handy




I think that's just VXX (the ETF) with a bit more spread... but I could be wrong.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Shorting Apple will be the most lucrative trade of the year.

http://peterlbrandt.com/would-jesse-livermore-be-looking-to-go-short-apple/


----------



## skc

A rare(?) divergent day between XJO (+1%) and China (-1.5%)... thoughts?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> A rare(?) divergent day between XJO (+1%) and China (-1.5%)... thoughts?




End of quarter mark up by the locals?


----------



## MRC & Co

skc said:


> A rare(?) divergent day between XJO (+1%) and China (-1.5%)... thoughts?




I don't follow correlations as closely as I used to, but not to do with the weak AUD today?

:vader:  haha, love the Vader helmet and I do miss taking tiny bits of intraday vol when there is little to no vol elsewhere ATM!


----------



## sinner

MRC & Co said:


> I don't follow correlations as closely as I used to, but not to do with the weak AUD today?




Not just a weak AUD against USD, but also the HKD smashed the USD quite hard (for that pair anyway) yesterday, todays session did nothing to reverse that flow. If you look at the AUDHKD directly it looks like a nice rejection off 8.2...


----------



## Timmy

Europe's baaaaack .... Italy esp.

Doesn't matter until it does.


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> I think that's just VXX (the ETF) with a bit more spread... but I could be wrong.




Looks like its based off the futs

10bp spread. Not too bad.

Behaves like a stock. Moves around heaps. Whats not to love!


----------



## MRC & Co

USDA releases tonight are HUGE for grains if anybody trades them or their related stocks.  May want to be careful, these things can go on multi day gapping (I would know, and for some reason, it's always against you)!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ugly start to the week. Gap Up open for everything then a roll over into negative for a few markets with everything else to soon join? HSI getting a good old smack down.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Ugly start to the week. Gap Up open for everything then a roll over into negative for a few markets with everything else to soon join? HSI getting a good old smack down.




How much if any of the HSI relates to the Sun Hong Kai arrests? It's massive news there and it's like having the Lowy's arrested in Australia. Is the property sector getting an outsized kickdown?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> Ugly start to the week. Gap Up open for everything then a roll over into negative for a few markets with everything else to soon join? HSI getting a good old smack down.




Perhaps it's time for a bit of a correction.
http://www.avidchartist.com/2012/03/evidence-aplenty-that-s-500-has-made.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> How much if any of the HSI relates to the Sun Hong Kai arrests? It's massive news there and it's like having the Lowy's arrested in Australia. Is the property sector getting an outsized kickdown?




Yeah it's not helping. Add to it the closing down of Chinas "twitter" because of rumours of a attempted China coup + China market actually closed today so we have a bit less volume - all the more fun for the Boyz to push and pull as they please?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Perhaps it's time for a bit of a correction.
> http://www.avidchartist.com/2012/03/evidence-aplenty-that-s-500-has-made.html




Haha. Be careful follow trade ideas from a punter who cannot afford proper data to base their analysis on.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> Haha. Be careful follow trade ideas from a punter who cannot afford proper data to base their analysis on.




What's this about?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> What's this about?




Just an idea. Say you are an idiot. You decide to go looking around the internet for what you should do from random fools with blogs like mine. You stumble across one called "Avid chartist" and start reading their stuff as to how to trade. Remember now you're an idiot and it all sound pretty good. So without questioning their ability you take on board their stuff. They have left an impression on you. Remember you are an idiot.

But should their stuff influence you? Can they actually trade? Do they make money? At first guess the fact they they use free rubbish faux data would to me, just another idiot but one who has been around a while, would suggest a big NO.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> At first guess the fact they they use free rubbish faux data would to me




Yeh, that's the part I'm not clear on. Can you elaborate? Why is the data rubbish and false? What is wrong with free data?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Yeh, that's the part I'm not clear on. Can you elaborate? Why is the data rubbish and false? What is wrong with free data?




Just an assumption on my behalf. How much money must they have taken out of the market if they use rubbish from CMC as their data supplier?

The data is not from the exchange. its from the exchange + or - whatever stupid figure they decide is appropriate to not have to charge for exchange fees. It lacks order flow and volume. And mostly the rollover time at the end of each day doesn't even match the exchange closing time!!


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> Just an assumption on my behalf. How much money must they have taken out of the market if they use rubbish from CMC as their data supplier?
> 
> The data is not from the exchange. its from the exchange + or - whatever stupid figure they decide is appropriate to not have to charge for exchange fees. It lacks order flow and volume. And mostly the rollover time at the end of each day doesn't even match the exchange closing time!!




That's because of after-hours trading? Data on the SPX is not exactly secret, I'm pretty sure you can get it just about anywhere for free? What's the difference?

I am just not following you.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Just an assumption on my behalf. How much money must they have taken out of the market if they use rubbish from CMC as their data supplier?




IT Finance is a separate entity (I think) and supplies the package to a number of outfits including IG Markets. I don't think CMC uses them but it's been a while since I had a CMC account.

Looking at the screenshots on the blog you can't really make out who's data it is. But faux data is probably right.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> I am just not following you.




You posted a link to some dude that looks like he does this for a little hobby. If you want to follow some random hobbyist trade ideas knock yourself out.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> You posted a link to some dude that looks like he does this for a little hobby. If you want to follow some random hobbyist trade ideas knock yourself out.




Well I intend to, Avid Chartist is pretty good and provides very good insights at MB commentary. What I don't understand are the basis of your criticisms.


----------



## skc

Starcraftmazter said:


> Well I intend to, Avid Chartist is pretty good and provides very good insights at MB commentary. What I don't understand are the basis of your criticisms.




The data used by Avid Chartist is data that has been massaged / modified by another party (e.g. IG Markets) and are not official exchange data. This observation leads one to question their ability and experience in trading.

The same as you wouldn't follow someone's photography blog if they are taking pictures with a compact camera on auto mode, or follow someone's cooking blog if they are cooking nothing but canned tuna and 2minute noodles in the microwave.


----------



## Market Sniper

Trembling Hand said:


> Haha. Be careful follow trade ideas from a punter who cannot afford proper data to base their analysis on.




Hey TH

While we are talking about data, could you explain your setup with data, brokers, charting etc.

From what I have read and seen you chart with ninja, use IB as your broker with booktrader as your trading ladder and esignal for data? Was curious if you could make this work?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Market Sniper said:


> From what I have read and seen you chart with ninja, use IB as your broker with booktrader as your trading ladder and esignal for data? Was curious if you could make this work?




As of a few days ago I'm using TT.

Not sure what you mean by "make it work"?


----------



## Market Sniper

Trembling Hand said:


> As of a few days ago I'm using TT.
> 
> Not sure what you mean by "make it work"?




Oh ok cool - what I meant was, can you do this. esignal data feed into IB and then that data also feeding ninja?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Market Sniper said:


> Oh ok cool - what I meant was, can you do this. esignal data feed into IB and then that data also feeding ninja?




Nah they just both feed NT.


----------



## professor_frink

Starcraftmazter said:


> Well I intend to, Avid Chartist is pretty good and provides very good insights at MB commentary. What I don't understand are the basis of your criticisms.




I don't know if I would really call much of the info I just saw on that site insightful.

A couple of blogs you could have a look at that provide information that's a little bit more indepth if you are interested:

www.quantifiableedges.blogspot.com

www.dynamichedge.com/

www.traderfeed.blogspot.com


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Crazy stuff from Europe just now, huge push up with some serious size/spoofing in the book, what a night.....up 80 ticks, down 37 ticks then up to new highs +100 ticks LOL. Not sure what the catalyst was? Just watching it from home, last half hour funny buggers in Europe cash close maybe, was mental, the mini did nothing really relatively. *scratch that, it's catching up now


----------



## sammy84

Nuts. Surprised the US hasn't done more.

Do find moves like this unsettling.


----------



## Timmy

S&P500 did get through its last week's high. 
Highest since May 2008.


----------



## Timmy

Construction spending figs released in the US last night ... interesting detail in the value of construction put in place for manufacturing purposes. Up 40% over Feb. 2011.

+40%.




http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Or......Feb 2011 was a particularly bad period - <to make a comparison with>?


----------



## sinner

I am having trouble figuring out this chart...




shows EOD spot XAUUSD/AUDUSD ratio against GLD/FXA (supposedly equivalent ETFs). 

As of last nights NY close, GLD/FXA was worth $40 less than the equivalent spot transaction? 

Yet when you look at the individual ETFs versus their spot they seem to be tracking ok...

I threw it up on the long term, definitely looks like this 'spread' in 2012 is the widest it's been in a while.

$40 an ounce times 1000 ounces anyones?


----------



## Timmy

sinner said:


> $40 an ounce times 1000 ounces anyones?




Good spot (no pun intended) sinner - what a weird anomaly.
I can't figure it out either.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I am having trouble figuring out this chart...



A guess but maybe they "from time to time" don't back shares issued to actual holdings?

I think it makes sense looking here,
http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/sites/us/value/


----------



## Trembling Hand

What was that smack down on the Nikkei at 11:30? Kospi too


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> What was that smack down on the Nikkei at 11:30? Kospi too
> 
> View attachment 46635




Bloomberg reckons it was the Federal Reserve notes...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-04/asian-stocks-australian-dollar-drop-on-fed-won-falls.html


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> A guess but maybe they "from time to time" don't back shares issued to actual holdings?
> 
> I think it makes sense looking here,
> http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/sites/us/value/




Ah yep, thanks TH, for some reason I thought I had checked to verify GLD was the same "price" as XAUUSD but it is clearly the source of the discrepancy.


----------



## sinner

I thought this article was rather good, been a while since I hit safehaven. Some great breadth charts/analysis included along with index seasonality for election time.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/24984/technical-market-report-for-april-7-2012

Also, did anyone see the EURCHF on Friday night?

I found this exchange rather interesting




> There was a mini flash crash in the EURCHF cross yesterday.
> 
> I was watching markets on a screen. When I saw the EURCHF price break I called a lady I know on an FX desk. She picked up the phone after a few seconds and yelled at me:
> 
> *“We’re 16 bid. It’s a piece of ****!”*
> 
> and then hung up...
> 
> Translation:
> *
> “FX Bank is prepared to buy Euros and sell Swiss Francs at 1.2016 currently. There is no breach of the CHF peg at this time. It was just some computers gunning stop losses. Nothing to worry about. Please excuse me, as I have to take another call. Have a nice day!"*




For the whole article
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-06/markets/31297975_1_snb-markets-hard-landing

Bruce Krasting rocks on the Swiss Franc coverage.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Are we looking at some shorts going into the qtr close as they window dress? Long VIX and/or Short Dow anyone?? So tempting...the Dow is so out of align with everything??




Lovely!


----------



## sinner

Breadth starting to look reaallllyyy weak. T/H how's it looking in Aussieland?


----------



## sammy84

US futures are looking healthy currently. Wouldn't surprise me to see the US snap back up tonight. Would frustrate most who had their stops triggered in the last few days (including myself) and could see them rush back into the market in the coming days.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Breadth starting to look reaallllyyy weak. T/H how's it looking in Aussieland?



I'm in the middle of a move Sinner and haven't fully connected my bank of Super Computers yet  so I have no idea at the mo. The monkeys should have it up and running soon thou.

Looks like the North Korean fire cracker was a dud. Alls well in crack pot land.


----------



## Trembling Hand

12 Melb/Syd time there should be some more fire works today. Lots of "data" from China,


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> 12 Melb/Syd time there should be some more fire works today. Lots of "data" from China,
> 
> View attachment 46715




TH, is that a paid news feed or one off the inet? I use briefing.com but they dont do much with asia.....Also, how is the data out of china for punctuality? I always thought they seemed a bit 'flexible' with their data releases?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

Just watch the SPI/AUD and act accordingly 

GDP weaker 8.1 vs 8.3


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> 12 Melb/Syd time there should be some more fire works today. Lots of "data" from China,
> 
> View attachment 46715




Thanks. Very useful info. Made me a few $.

Come up to BrisVegas and drinks* on me.

*Limited to 1 drink under the value of $12.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> 12 Melb/Syd time there should be some more fire works today. Lots of "data" from China,




"data"??? Don't you believe them? Getting close to stall speed for them?

8.1 down from 8.9 - some nice waterfalls going around


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> TH, is that a paid news feed or one off the inet? I use briefing.com but they dont do much with asia.....Also, how is the data out of china for punctuality? I always thought they seemed a bit 'flexible' with their data releases?




Yeah Trade The News.

Spot on time wise but for things like that you hardly need the news. Just run with the nutz!!

Its of more use IMO for the surprises.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Why isn't the ASF chat room feature used for this sort of thing? No one in there last time I looked.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> "data"??? Don't you believe them? Getting close to stall speed for them?



Haha I actually put that in with you in mind :


skc said:


> Thanks. Very useful info. Made me a few $.
> 
> Come up to BrisVegas and drinks* on me.
> 
> *Limited to 1 drink under the value of $12.



 At least I've banked some profit on that move. :alcohol:

Surprised at how well HSI has been held up by those unfair bots!! Crack you Bi{@#


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Haha I actually put that in with you in mind :
> At least I've banked some profit on that move. :alcohol:
> 
> Surprised at how well HSI has been held up by those unfair bots!! Crack you Bi{@#




You were short??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> You were short??



 I've been playing mostly short on the HSI since open but had no position during the ann. Then only got a tiny amount filled cus it pretty much all happened in less than 15 sec!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> I've been playing mostly short on the HSI since open but had no position during the ann. Then only got a tiny amount filled cus it pretty much all happened in less than 15 sec!!




Any of you guys still fade those moves?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Any of you guys still fade those moves?
> 
> CanOz



 I've been fading so many moves. I've faded the fade and then had to fade that fades fade.

I think I've discovered a new dimension in space!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> I've been fading so many moves. I've faded the fade and then had to fade that fades fade.
> 
> I think I've discovered a new dimension in space!




LOL, you've torn a new hole in the fabric of the fade...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I've been playing mostly short on the HSI since open but had no position during the ann. Then only got a tiny amount filled cus it pretty much all happened in less than 15 sec!!




15 sec! If only you had your server in the exchange building in China


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> 15 sec! If only you had your server in the exchange building in China




I have. :

But besides that it actually was just a 15 sec fall. Looking at it now I'm surprised I got any fill.




And Howz that HSI and China go up after the data. Europe & US get a smack down


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> I have. :
> 
> But besides that it actually was just a 15 sec fall. Looking at it now I'm surprised I got any fill.
> 
> View attachment 46727
> 
> 
> And Howz that HSI and China go up after the data. Europe & US get a smack down




Hey TH,  Are you able to print the 1 second bars with volume for the quick move bit ... thanks?

Have you done many stats on the regularity of the range of these flash moves on the HSI particularly?  

I notice FX pairs are peppered with "regular" range/time moves which has been a revelation to me.  The more I study FX the more conventional indicators I remove from the chart .... and I note with exhuberance that you don't use many/any indicators  Cheers.


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> Hey TH,  Are you able to print the 1 second bars with volume for the quick move bit ... thanks?



 Here ya go. good luck with that! 


The problem with Honkers is the exchange is based on old Tech. When it goes nutz like that you cannot even get timely data, let alone get fills and feed back as to what you got filled and at what price. It really is poor.



barney said:


> Have you done many stats on the regularity of the range of these flash moves on the HSI particularly?
> 
> I notice FX pairs are peppered with "regular" range/time moves which has been a revelation to me.  The more I study FX the more conventional indicators I remove from the chart .... and I note with exhuberance that you don't use many/any indicators  Cheers



 Time is my most important "indicator", guaranteed to work every_time_.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Here ya go. good luck with that!




Haha ..... Just being curious

So it was pushed down "cheaply" about 70 points before it hit volume .... Would that volume have been visible in the DOM?  (I don't have DOM so forgive me if thats a dumb question)



Trembling Hand said:


> The problem with Honkers is the exchange is based on old Tech. When it goes nutz like that you cannot even get timely data, let alone get fills and feed back as to what you got filled and at what price. It really is poor.




How the McHell do you trade it on such short time frames with so much confidence ..... 





Trembling Hand said:


> Time is my most important "indicator", guaranteed to work every_time_.




mmmm ....... some elaboration on that would be wonderful, but I know you would have to kill all of us!!   ....... any advice via PM would be graciously and thankfully taken on board if offered

Cheers ...... and I trust that ticker is behaving itself !!


----------



## CanOz

Nice 250 point drop on the HSI today....y'all must be having some fun with that....

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Nice 250 point drop on the HSI today....y'all must be having some fun with that....
> 
> CanOz




I've been in SanFran since Saturday. Was sort of hoping to be able to trade NY hours instead of Tokyo but been super busy.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> I've been in SanFran since Saturday. Was sort of hoping to be able to trade NY hours instead of Tokyo but been super busy.




San Fran, nice airport...that's all I've seen of it and that was unscheduled!

CanOz


----------



## barney

Canadian Dollar going on a bit of a bender tonight on the back of improved economic outlook.

US housing starts down, but permits up 4.5% ........ so they'd rather spend more on building new houses than buy old ones at record low prices .... interesting.

Should put a Bullish undertone on markets for a day or two you'd reckon.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Open interest for the index is everywhere. Like here,
> http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NQ
> 
> For APPL no idea. You'll have to have a hunt around. Sure its out there somewhere. Not that its much use in any case. Index OI waxes and wanes and most of its not directional trades. And then of course for every short there is a long so I wonder what your looking for?




I used to refer to finviz a lot, but, the data is not totally kosher for say pre NFP plays and its summation daily not who's mounted the pre-cash.....be clear your context when looking at the data


----------



## Joules MM1

i think people just like using the word bot in a post and have little idea the value it poses when/where......all this amounts to jibba jabba for the sake of it if you have no idea how trade the set-ups.....there are extremely competent traders who see algo activity but it doesnt change the trade profile or order flow the way most speculate might happen......its still the same auction......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> i think people just like using the word bot in a post and have little idea the value it poses when/where......all this amounts to jibba jabba for the sake of it if you have no idea how trade the set-ups.....there are extremely competent traders who see algo activity but it doesnt change the trade profile or order flow the way most speculate might happen......its still the same auction......




Don't have to be all that competent.......if you can tell me what drove the Dow up 200pts on average data then????

AAPL had a good day though, must short again?


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> AAPL had a good day though, must short again?




Good luck with that?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Don't have to be all that competent.......if you can tell me what drove the Dow up 200pts on average data then????




I didn't think the housing data stuff was the mover. Rather the Spanish bill sale. Europe was well on its was before the housing data.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> I didn't think the housing data stuff was the mover. Rather the Spanish bill sale. Europe was well on its was before the housing data.



 Right after I posted my comment about the HSI the dax went up up and away.....filled the gap and more. 

So someone is still buying Spain's debt? The IMF got a few more blood donors too I heard.

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Definitely the Spanish auction had the most impact.


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Don't have to be all that competent.......if you can tell me what drove the Dow up 200pts on average data then????
> 
> AAPL had a good day though, must short again?




if you think the market (US or otherwise) needs to have good/bad data to move then you have much education to come or you're receiving it and not recognising the education within a seemingly "baseless" set of moves.....why does the market move up in a less than historic mean volume and on less than steller news, mostly because the news is already written into the price and options pit activity.....follow the options outcry and bonds and youre more likely to find the data you want......better still watch the ladder rather than counting waves or looking for shapes.....understanding basic supply demand of an auction, where positional players will take % bargain trades is likely to help much more than popular banter about algo's and bots.......think about the time of day when machinery is most effective and/or most effected, that is, if youre trading inside, otherwise if youre a daily pos player forget the debate completely

what's this weeks drug du jour? spanish fly .......majic lulz !


----------



## barney

:cuckoo:  ...... President Obama speaking on Oil ........ 

called for increasing penalties on oil speculators ........ as part of a plan to crack down on an "irresponsible few" who he says rig oil markets 

said Congress should boost enforcement staff at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ...... and increase penalties for market manipulation to $10 million from $1 million

He is also asking Congress to give the CFTC authority to raise margin requirements on traders who buy and sell oil futures. 


At first I thought he's finally lost it, then I realised ........ Election Year


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> So someone is still buying Spain's debt?
> CanOz




Yep.  Spanish banks, apparently!!:bounce:


----------



## Joules MM1

barney said:


> :cuckoo:  ...... President Obama speaking on Oil ........




in defense of oil specs....interesting article

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...snapshot-in_defense_of_oil_speculators-000000


----------



## Joules MM1

BerkshireHathaway:

article:

Warren Buffett has Prostate cancer

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2112296,00.html

(Doug Kass) video:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000084588&play=1


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> if you think the market (US or otherwise) needs to have good/bad data to move then you have much education to come or you're receiving it and not recognising the education within a seemingly "baseless" set of moves.....why does the market move up in a less than historic mean volume and on less than steller news, mostly because the news is already written into the price and options pit activity.....follow the options outcry and bonds and youre more likely to find the data you want......better still watch the ladder rather than counting waves or looking for shapes.....understanding basic supply demand of an auction, where positional players will take % bargain trades is likely to help much more than popular banter about algo's and bots.......think about the time of day when machinery is most effective and/or most effected, that is, if youre trading inside, otherwise if youre a daily pos player forget the debate completely
> 
> what's this weeks drug du jour? spanish fly .......majic lulz !




I have a good idea what the story is, have for about 10 years now, but how does 'the market' quantify 200 pts on such data, when if even just a cursury glance & primary school maths shows that the data (driving the market up) is flawed and or the fundamentals haven't changed if not gotten worse if anything? 

There is nothing good about the Spain story, even if they have 1 bond auction that was at the margin 'better than expected' - their financial system is deteriorating by the day but 'the markets' are no longer price discovery mechs but rather daily/minutely/secondly algo news driven. 

Look at the US retail sales figures - all the market want's to care about is the headline figures, even though it's basically a guestimate?? Same with the employment guestimate numbers - they will have to revise down their figures within months? Industrial production is flat etc etc

The best one is however the earnings guestimates - all low balled so they come in better than expected (although a lot are not even getting that mark) but still down on PCP's ie US earnings have tanked - this is as good as it get's, without more QE of course?

That's not to say I'm not part of it - I've never made so much money. I am pretty much am saying though that the market is in fact wrong and the further we go down the track the worse it's going to get - I am pricing that in every time I short at the tops. The funny thing is it's doesn't really matter what your (short) entry point is because eventually you will make a profit.......the fundamentals are saying as much?

PS Spanish bond yields going back up again - let's see how the real auctions go??


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> The funny thing is it's doesn't really matter what your (short) entry point is because eventually you will make a profit.......the fundamentals are saying as much?



 Long or short eventually you will make a profit! I love sideways markets! There so self perpetuating.:aus:
The stop is dead in the lost decade ahead.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Good luck with that?




Yes, 600's have been good hunting so far. Down again after hours.


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, 600's have been good hunting so far. Down again after hours.
> 
> View attachment 46764




Keep "hunting" then  ...I dunno which chart you're looking at.



> The funny thing is it's doesn't really matter what your (short) entry point is because eventually you will make a profit.




So if AAPL breaks the current seven day high, will you still be spouting this?

I mean, I'm not running longs, but I really am not seeing your confidence to short "no matter what price you're a winner" either. If you put a gun to my head and made me trade the AAPL daily, I'd be far more game for running a low risk long here.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sinner said:


> Keep "hunting" then  ...I dunno which chart you're looking at.
> So if AAPL breaks the current seven day high, will you still be spouting this?
> 
> I mean, I'm not running longs, but I really am not seeing your confidence to short "no matter what price you're a winner" either. If you put a gun to my head and made me trade the AAPL daily, I'd be far more game for running a low risk long here.




Low risk long? Well that's the game isn't it? It just happens to meet my (shorting) methodology - wait for the woody blow off after the long term run-up (my trading zone) then look for intra-day advances which exceed a % value. Works for me....


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> I have a good idea what the story is, have for about 10 years now, but how does 'the market' quantify 200 pts on such data,




those two sentences are odds with each other......if after 10 years your understanding of positional players and those who effect/affect order flow is rarely based on that days "data"......then again, we may both have diff ideas on what the word data actually is.....seems to me you're referring to news/fundamental theories of price discovery ......look deeper, look at function of the auction rather than the usual chat site goss of news......if youre trading from a chart actually back test the news as a value or pressure on price.....then ask at what price the new value kicks in, or, most likely where was the news written into the days set-up......i mean, when news is bad price climbs, when news is good price climbs in different congestions, diff size for diff time periods......a 10 year bond auction has some bearing on some players but i doubt youre ever going to quantify the extent, what you can do is to look and interpret the price data and see how the previous session(s) set-up uses the up-coming news.....that is, what is the set-up value not what is the mythical bond mathematic or whatever the news du jour is as its not like no-one knew the news was coming.....i think the whole news debate is a furffy and asking what is the theory behind the price moving whatever points is also a furffy, youre simply not going to trade the theory, youre always trading the current idea of price and value levels based on the market flow at the time, in the present, so, yes, you need to read the recent history that sets up the plays and project  a plan forward, but, rather than guessing what a news function might provide, ask where are the players positioned from data that is raw(er) such as options traded or expiring, adv/dec, time of year, who'd best gain from the timing of the news.......

10 years of trading doesnt mean squat really if youre still looking at the same ole and coming up with the same ole and 

to give you an idea of what i mean, take players whom only trade off the dom, they know the news is comming and theyre watching size come into the ladder, the news itself carries very little value, what theyre looking for is size and disguise .....that's it....theyre watching the 10 year note and some might even be watching a prop set of indicia for options activity but the further they look away from price itself the further they drift from discovery, so, if theyre drifting even when using raw data (intepretation aside) then how far is a trader by trying to analyse news ? What type of investment might be effected by news is a good question....the diff between deciding on an investment basis and a trading basis is like an F1 and a double decker bus


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules,
All taken on board, but the basic premise of mine was that the 'thing' that changes the pricing dynamics is incorrect ie the data/news is taken at face (headline) value not what it actually might be? Then there are the revisions/corrections a month or so later but by then the market has well & truly moved on. 

So take the Spanish auctions tonight - the market is already pricing in a successful auction, the critical word being _successful_, even if the yield is higher than 4.85% (10 year) and the country itself is in recession etc etc all just to kick the tin down the road a bit longer?

What do you see happening?

All *here

*The Spanish Treasury is looking to sell €1.5 billion ($2 billion) with a  maximum target of €2.5 billion ($3.3 billion) in bonds maturing 2014  and 2022.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Spain sold some more junk. Here comes the pop & fade?


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Spain sold some more junk. Here comes the pop & fade?




Nasty chop both ways but do expect it to fade...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Spain two-year auction yield seen at 3.46%-Yield at prior Spain 2-year auction 2.069%
Spain 10-year auction yield seen at 5.74%-Yield at prior Spain 10-year auction 5.403%


.....and fading still......


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Joules,
> All taken on board, but the basic premise of mine was that the 'thing' that changes the pricing dynamics is incorrect ..........




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-spooking-europe-morning

like that one......yessa.....knowing the roosters about to crow is a tuff one....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-spooking-europe-morning
> 
> like that one......yessa.....knowing the roosters about to crow is a tuff one....




Or.....Mr Market _finally_ pricing some things in...?

As bad as that situation is, the black swan will be China........?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

AAPL juice anyone


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A nice 70 pt tickle at the close to make things look a bit respectable?

There was nothing at all good about the data yet only down 70 pts as opposed to up 200 on _less good_ news?

One of my theories is that you know when bad data is coming by the magnitude of the previous rise??


----------



## Joules MM1

anecdotal stuff

Volker rule/effect.....

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04...-for-banks/?smid=tw-nytimesdealbook&seid=auto

microsoft

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-19/microsofts-design-drive

it's 21st April, like summer....a likely cause
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News022512-cme.html

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News041612-M1.7flare.html


----------



## sinner

Took a quick tourist snap outside the FRB SF before I left today, thought you guys might appreciate it



Who wants some Bennie Bux!


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Took a quick tourist snap outside the FRB SF before I left today, thought you guys might appreciate it
> 
> View attachment 46803
> 
> Who wants some Bennie Bux!



 Lol sinner...I did a double take on that one!


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> ...
> 
> One of my theories is that you know when bad data is coming by the magnitude of the previous rise??




twitter


			
				Walter Murphy said:
			
		

> Walter Murphy ‏ @waltergmurphy
> 
> Retweet
> 
> 
> The equal-weighted Continuous Commodity Index recorded its 8th strait weekly decline. That's the longest in our 14-year database.




 could be right


----------



## sammy84

There goes the risk trade.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sammy84 said:


> There goes the risk trade.




Nah its only Monday. Mondays don't count,


:bath:


----------



## Joules MM1

BAC seem content enough to say buy

http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa...tton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=moneygame

(cough)

facebook 1.06B in Q1

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312512175673/d287954ds1a.htm

gold and oil (packed lunch req'd)

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/?CFID=5285054&CFTOKEN=61686351

another rocket scientist with dire "potentials", convincing charts......nice

http://etfprophet.com/big-sis-joins...ks/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Rinse - repeat 




Apple Inc. reported a 93% earnings jump for the March quarter on  Tuesday afternoon, beating Wall Street's estimates thanks mostly to  strong iPhone sales. For the period ended March 31, Apple                                                                             AAPL                         +6.43%                                                     reported net income of $11.6 billion, or $12.30 per share, compared to  earnings of $6 billion, or $6.40 per share, for the same period last  year. Revenue jumped 59% to $39.2 billion. Analysts were expecting  earnings of $10.07 per share on revenue of $36.96 billion, according to  consensus forecasts from FactSet Research. The company said it shipped  35.1 million iPhones in the period, and 11.8 million iPads.

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y   -3.5%   -3.5%     -3.9% - unadjusted home prices lowest in a decade
Richmond Manufacturing Index   14         7            7 - 
CB Consumer Confidence           69.2     69.9        69.5
New Home Sales                      328K    321K        353K

This is what I have been saying - 

_Modern investing offers the promise that investors who "do their  homework" and use data more intelligently than the herd can gain a  valuable edge. But what if the underlying data available to the  investing public is fundamentally flawed? _

*Story*


----------



## sammy84

Uncle Festivus said:


> Rinse - repeat
> 
> View attachment 46832




Did you cover your short? The after hours trading is ominous.


----------



## skyQuake

Huge vol in after hrs, vwap around $600. Even pushed nasdaq futs up 1.3%


----------



## Uncle Festivus

sammy84 said:


> Did you cover your short? The after hours trading is ominous.




Yes, closed out - not going to hold a short when they announce earnings for the obvious reasons, so see how much follow through in the 600's this rotation......it's a wild ride this one


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bit of a smack down going on in the Asian futs. 

Probably should be buying it.

 :grenade:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Probably should be buying it.




yep


----------



## Timmy

Chatter about an easing coming from China soon, from Credit Agricole:


> an RRR cut is likely to come soon as the central bank needs to support the slowing economy via more liquidity.



http://www.efxnews.com/story/12239/...um=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Efxnews+(eFXnews+)


----------



## Timmy

Bellwether stock Caterpillar "smashed" its estimates pre-NYSE open and raised guidance. Lots of devil in the details, though ... some yucky numbers buried in there. Big case of DYOR methinks.

Anyways... FOMC statement due @ 2pm, press conference 15 mins later. Not expecting too much different from previous. Soon know.


----------



## sammy84

Apple currently up 9%. Lucky you covered that short Uncle.


----------



## notting

Jobs vision ends with apple TV - still largely in the pipeline. The short maybe a while off yet
@ 1000 in about nine months might feel safer.


----------



## sinner

Just looking at some breadth charts, I notice the NYSE Summation Index is still > 0 but the NASDAQ Summation Index crossed below 0 on the 10th April.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Just looking at some breadth charts, I notice the NYSE Summation Index is still > 0 but the NASDAQ Summation Index crossed below 0 on the 10th April.




Its a wishy washy mess again Sinner. I was short half a dozen US stocks before the AAPL ann. Got stopped out on most as they retraced past thier breaks and back into the patterns again, frustrating, Lost a grand overnight. 

You got Europe pulling one way, and the recovery pulling the other....

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Its a wishy washy mess again Sinner. I was short half a dozen US stocks before the AAPL ann. Got stopped out on most as they retraced past thier breaks and back into the patterns again, frustrating, Lost a grand overnight.
> 
> You got Europe pulling one way, and the recovery pulling the other....
> 
> CanOz



 Boy the DAX has been just nutz!! Shes a volatility honey trap. :badass:


----------



## Timmy

The rain in Spain falls mainly after the close.

These guys from Apr. 17. S&P catching up.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone for some cheap JP ¥, .


----------



## Joules MM1

Timer Digest 

http://yfrog.com/z/oc9x1yp

my fave one, NeoWave sell signal, *however,*....holding onto previous wave and may try to work higher....

brilliant.....top humour

--------------------------------------------------------

Walter Murphy ‏ @waltergmurphy


Both the daily and weekly NYSE all issue cumulative advance-decline lines are within a hair's breadth (pun intended) of an all time high.


--------------------------------------------------------
options

http://www.nasdaqomxtrader.com/content/phlx/MSCI_factsheet.pdf

--------------------------------------------------------
light-weight humour for bulls

http://photos.denverpost.com/mediac...t-cu-boulders-williams-village-dorms/34200/#3


----------



## Joules MM1

Rennie Yang said:
			
		

> Twitter Rennie Yang ‏ @MarketTells
> 
> S&P futures closed up <0.5% after being up >1% intraday. Since Nov '09 that's occurred 10 times, S&P higher 1wk later 9/10 $$




video

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/brea...ustrial-average-makeover-grave-180414652.html



			
				Matt Nesto said:
			
		

> Does the Dow Need a Makeover or a Grave?
> | Breakout – Mon, Apr 30, 2012 2:04 PM EDT






			
				Walter Murphy said:
			
		

> Twitter Walter Murphy ‏ @waltergmurphy
> 
> NYSE all-issue daily cumulative advance decline line recorded an ALL-TIME new high today. Not major market top here


----------



## sinner

Well, it's been ages (a month?) since I took a single intraday trade now. Due to the death of a friend, I don't like to trade discretionary if my mind isn't 100% in it. Was hoping to get back in the saddle after a bit of down-time post San Francisco, but just heard last night another friend of mine has passed away in a motorbike accident, definitely taking a further hiatus extension.

Nothing too unusual or interesting happening on the systems front...as long as you are willing to trade the numbers look good all round. I don't run mean reversion in the current market regime but surprised to see it isn't doing bad despite the low volatility. Also noticed the system I'm running on my superannuation account is doing pretty good after rotating into some SLF.ASX months ago...rather interesting action over the last 5-10 trading days. Hopefully some strong trend action comes soon so I can start trailing a useful stop.


----------



## CanOz

Sinner, that's sad to hear...make sure you reach out to your friends and family. 

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whats up with the Nikkei today? Down over 1% on open?


----------



## captain black

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats up with the Nikkei today? Down over 1% on open?




Holiday in Japan today and tomorrow?
Kospi futures down 1/3 to 1/4 percent on open.


----------



## Trembling Hand

captain black said:


> Holiday in Japan today and tomorrow?
> Kospi futures down 1/3 to 1/4 percent on open.




Yeah but why are their futs open


----------



## captain black

Not sure TH, I only trade the kospi during the day. 

IB is showing the NK225 futures through Osaka as closed but not sure what contract/exchange you're using.


----------



## Trembling Hand

captain black said:


> Not sure TH, I only trade the kospi during the day.
> 
> IB is showing the NK225 futures through Osaka as closed but not sure what contract/exchange you're using.




Yeah Ok. I was looking at the SGX ones. They are open but have gone to sleep now. No probs.


----------



## captain black

Trembling Hand said:


> They are open but have gone to sleep now




Kospi looking a bit like the SPI this morning, 11 tick range, might go to sleep here too...


----------



## sinner

5 day 15 min WTI and Brent, gotta hate missing out on these ones.


----------



## sinner

...and just for fun here are some oil FX pairs...I wanted to use NOKEUR but the data looked even more funny than NOKUSD. Was there some news out of Norway on Friday or something?

Good correlation between CADUSD and MYRJPY.


----------



## CanOz

The first day of systematic trading for me and i had three order executed just after the open of each the SPI, K200, and HSI.

One problem though...wrong account specified on each chart. My stocks account in IB does not have futures permission, and that's what Multicharts defaulted to...

I would have been short the SPI at 4330, long the K200 at 259.8, and short the HSI at 20458

Oh well. There are more markets opening later...:bonk:

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Well 6500 just gave way on the DAX, and 1.30 handle looks to fall on EUR...not sure if the US can pick this baby up or not tonight...Data out soon, maybe that will reverse it.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Well 6500 just gave way on the DAX, and 1.30 handle looks to fall on EUR...not sure if the US can pick this baby up or not tonight...Data out soon, maybe that will reverse it.
> 
> CanOz




Just a wash out. That should do until some more juice comes in around US open? But that may lift it.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Just a wash out. That should do until some more juice comes in around US open? But that may lift it.




Sure is choppy.....a light news day in the US, this could continue until some more good news...

German data was good...tough market.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Sure is choppy.....a light news day in the US, this could continue until some more good news...




Nah..... three pushes down with divergance. We are going up. Come on put some of _your _money on it.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah..... three pushes down with divergance. We are going up. Come on put some of _your _money on it.




I'm still short....can't interfere, it wouldn't be systematic if i did! 

CanOZ


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> I'm still short....can't interfere, it wouldn't be systematic if i did!
> 
> CanOZ




My shorts so far....

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

I may actually need to trade the DAX and EuroStoxx50 in two sessions. The morning as one session and then treat the open of the US markets as a separate session. I'll test this tomorrow and see if its logical.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah..... three pushes down with divergance. We are going up. Come on put some of _your _money on it.




Right you were, gave up 1700 EUR of open profit.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Right you were,




Surely you jest? Of course I was right..............


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Surely you jest? Of course I was right..............




Smartass!

Its gonna take a day or two to get over leaving that one the table.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Smartass!
> 
> Its gonna take a day or two to get over leaving that one the table.
> 
> CanOz




Yeah? Won't be the last time a fortune slips out of ya hand. 

Strangely its exposing your self to that type of pain that enables you to bag the really big ones.


----------



## skyQuake

Looks like it could really crap itself tonight corn:
test of 1342 and crack below imo


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah? Won't be the last time a fortune slips out of ya hand.
> 
> Strangely its exposing your self to that type of pain that enables you to bag the really big ones.




I know, i know...my weakness has always been NOT taking profits soon enough. One thing i am disciplned at though, and thats sticking with the system...Can't fault myself on that tonight!

Long the ZB from 144 9/32 


CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

The inevitable squeeze... and come on crack 1342!

Regardless of what happens tonight, anyone think Aus is due for a squeeze from late morning tomorrow?


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> I know, i know...my weakness has always been NOT taking profits soon enough. One thing i am disciplned at though, and thats sticking with the system.




Doesn't sound like much of a weakness to me. It's as hard to pick tops as it is
bottoms even harder in bull markets. Even Soros was out of gold at 1500!


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> I know, i know...my weakness has always been NOT taking profits soon enough. One thing i am disciplned at though, and thats sticking with the system...Can't fault myself on that tonight!
> 
> Long the ZB from 144 9/32
> 
> 
> CanOz




You are either a quick hitter or a longer trend rider. It's very difficult to be both.

In the current market I am pretty dedicated to quick hits. It chops around so much, at the same time the next opportunity is never far away. Combining smaller profits with higher frequency can build total profit just as efficiently.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> I may actually need to trade the DAX and EuroStoxx50 in two sessions. The morning as one session and then treat the open of the US markets as a separate session. I'll test this tomorrow and see if its logical.
> 
> CanOz




Trade the European open with European indices, trade the US open with US indices.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Trade the European open with European indices, trade the US open with US indices.




Hi Sinner, what i'm finding in my testing is that there is a sweet spot with correlated indices. The SPI for example, doesn't have its sweet spot until the HSI opens, could be related to Shanghai as well, not sure. 

For the DAX it has a sweet spot in the morning and then another one in the afternoon, as it changes from leading the ES to following it.


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> For the DAX it has a sweet spot in the morning and then another one in the afternoon, as it changes from leading the ES to following it.




Yeah this is the problem with intraday. The little intricacies are always changing. The DAX at the mo is just smokin'. Just out and out sweet spot for volatility but no sooner will you crack it, it will change. Believe me - have lost count 10 time over on how many times a repeatable pattern comes hangs around just so you get used to it then fades.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah this is the problem with intraday. The little intricacies are always changing. The DAX at the mo is just smokin'. Just out and out sweet spot for volatility but no sooner will you crack it, it will change. Believe me - have lost count 10 time over on how many times a repeatable pattern comes hangs around just so you get used to it then fades.




Yeah agree, You can see this in the equity curves of my system if tested over a longer period of time. This requires more frequent optimizations, on shorter windows....which in turn means you need to optimize more frequently...'perpetually optimizing....'

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Euro stinking up the place here.


----------



## CanOz

One thing i can't figure out about the Asian indices, is who is leading whom? I used to think that the HSI leads the SPI and the K200, but i don't have data for the Nikkei, so i can't be sure...OR is there no real lead at all???

All i watch are the SPI, the Kospi and the Hang Seng.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> One thing i can't figure out about the Asian indices, is who is leading whom? I used to think that the HSI leads the SPI and the K200, but i don't have data for the Nikkei, so i can't be sure...OR is there no real lead at all???
> 
> All i watch are the SPI, the Kospi and the Hang Seng.
> 
> CanOz




Today, right now we are following oil down - HHI then Kospi not helping. STW trying to hold up, and Shanghai. 

But thats now.


----------



## CanOz

Cool, thanks....whats the bet the HSI will be pulled towards 20,000?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Cool, thanks....




Hey you can get Nikkei (SGXNK) and Shanghai (XINA50) data for free via the SGX in IB.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey you can get Nikkei (SGXNK) and Shanghai (XINA50) data for free via the SGX in IB.




Done and dusted...:thankyou:....are they liquid enough to trade (checking)?

The XINA50 looks ok, but the NK looks a bit thin.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Done and dusted...:thankyou:....are they liquid enough to trade (checking)?
> 
> The XINA50 looks ok, but the NK looks a bit thin.
> 
> CanOz




Hey?


----------



## CanOz

oops, wrong expiry!


----------



## CanOz

Holy crap its crazy today!! The DAX is just nuts!corn:corn:corn:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Holy crap its crazy today!! The DAX is just nuts!corn:corn:corn:




Yeah? Come and throw a few around the boyz playing games on the HSI   :shoot::bunny:


EDIT; I'm the bunny!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah? Come and throw a few around the boyz playing games on the HSI   :shoot::bunny:
> 
> 
> EDIT; I'm the bunny!




Here comes the bounce!

Is that you on the BID still? LOL?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Here comes the bounce!
> 
> Is that you on the BID still? LOL?
> 
> CanOz




Geezus!! I'm feeling a little tenderised. Annoyingly I pick the top at 20200 but spewed it up way way too soon. 

Where is SCM to tell me how to do it?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Trembling Hand said:


> Where is SCM to tell me how to do it?




Not a single loss trade on the DAX for me this week - no troll'n.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Starcraftmazter said:


> Not a single loss trade on the DAX for me this week - no troll'n.




I've had 94 losing trades this week. What does that mean? nothing.


----------



## CanOz

Wow SCM, that's great considering the whipsaw volatility. :bowdown:Even experienced traders would struggle with this action. You must be very good at trading the DAX.

CanOz


----------



## notting

IBEX is looking somewhat telling!!


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Wow SCM, that's great considering the whipsaw volatility. :bowdown:Even experienced traders would struggle with this action. You must be very good at trading the DAX.
> 
> CanOz




I don't have a single losing trade in over 20,000 instruments this week. :


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> I don't have a single losing trade in over 20,000 instruments this week. :




I could easily get a win rate like that but i would need a stop 1000 times less than my profit target! lol!

CanOz


----------



## Starcraftmazter

skc said:


> I don't have a single losing trade in over 20,000 instruments this week. :




That is mad skills, you should PM me with your strategy.


----------



## notting

skc said:


> I don't have a single losing trade in over 20,000 instruments this week. :




You must have stolen my patented new tech trader program.
There is no way you could trade that many instruments without it.
I invented this program by using Microsoft's motion detecting gaming technology to place the trades as a keyboard, mouse and HFT Computer just isn't enough.
You need to use your entire body in order to maintain an edge over the machines.
I actually took a video of myself trading with it during a trading roadshow.
The music is only there to calm my mind, to maintain poise.
Please don't copy it.


----------



## CanOz

Bond Yields...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I could easily get a win rate like that but i would need a stop 1000 times less than my profit target! lol!
> 
> CanOz




Yes until that one that doesn't work out.  :
Win rate normally the least telling stat.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes until that one that doesn't work out.  :
> Win rate normally the least telling stat.




Yup, without a good ratio of win to loss, you'll never effectively pull out of a draw-down.

Personally I'm comfortable with a W/L rate from 40 - 60% as long as the Profit Factor and W/L Ratio are decent, and they all equal 1.2 or over when multiplied. Good rule of thumb as a starting point.

When was the last time you worked through your stats trading indices on the DOM TH?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yup, without a good ratio of win to loss, you'll never effectively pull out of a draw-down.
> 
> Personally I'm comfortable with a W/L rate from 40 - 60% as long as the Profit Factor and W/L Ratio are decent, and they all equal 1.2 or over when multiplied. Good rule of thumb as a starting point.
> 
> When was the last time you worked through your stats trading indices on the DOM TH?
> 
> CanOz




Yesterday, and the day before that, and the trading day before that....... you get the idea.

100 trades a day and you have some ongoing stats to work with often.


----------



## wayneL

Starcraftmazter said:


> Not a single loss trade on the DAX for me this week - no troll'n.




Easy for someone who doesn't trade.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yesterday, and the day before that, and the trading day before that....... you get the idea.
> 
> 100 trades a day and you have some ongoing stats to work with often.




Yeah at that rate every day is statistically significant!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> Easy for someone who doesn't trade.




Funnily the periods when I do manage to snag a close to 100% win rate are not good for my trading. You start to not take trades you would normally take to protect your win rate. End result you fail to take that next hard trade to only watch it run away to a multiple R winner.

Then because you have missed a good one you try fading it. Before long you're offside on a trade that you would normally been on in the other direction!!  

ya can keep your high win rate!!


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Funnily the periods when I do manage to snag a close to 100% win rate are not good for my trading. You start to not take trades you would normally take to protect your win rate.




That is so true... I find myself admiring my smooth equity curve more than focusing on the next available trade. Trade for profit, not the stats.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> That is so true... I find myself admiring my smooth equity curve more than focusing on the next available trade. Trade for profit, not the stats.




Only caveat I would but on that is if your win rate goes up and so too does your avg hold time goes way up with it. Clearly if your trading many multi-baggers your going to need to holdem'

For me avg hold time is a really telling stat when compared to overall P & L.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bloody hell! Honkers is really holding everything down here. All the makings of a upside running in Asia/FX yet some monkey is holding Honkers back.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody hell! Honkers is really holding everything down here. All the makings of a upside running in Asia/FX yet some monkey is holding Honkers back.




Yeah i see that, the Aussie really took off...with everything else...HSI only up .02%...lagging big time, and i'm long, wish it would hurry up...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yeah i see that, the Aussie really took off...with everything else...HSI only up .02%...lagging big time, and i'm long, wish it would hurry up...
> 
> CanOz




Nah its going to have a false break and then get smashed by all the prop traders.....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah its going to have a false break and then get smashed by all the prop traders.....





OR just a slow choppy grind all morning!


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> OR just a slow choppy grind all morning!




Broke low...looks like i might get stopped out this morning...bugger. 

Must have been some data out of china?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Broke low...looks like i might get stopped out this morning...bugger.
> 
> Must have been some data out of china?
> 
> CanOz




Did I get your stop then?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Did I get your stop then?





LOL, no, but i moved it up to under the flag, it was at 20082. I moved it up to 20106.

heading to 20070?

Well I'm done for the morning, good time to optimise my DAX afternoon system.

CanOz


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Well I'm done for the morning, good time to optimise my DAX afternoon system.




Come on over to the Kospi for the afternoon CanOz, we're much nicer over there....:engel:

(let us know where your stop is, we'll tap it in the lunch time grind   )


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Come on over to the Kospi for the afternoon CanOz, we're much nicer over there....:engel:
> 
> (let us know where your stop is, we'll tap it in the lunch time grind   )




Har dee har har har Captain!! 

You know i should have been in the SPI and the Kospi this morning, i had a dozen orders sent to TWS from my strategy.....but TWS logged itself out just after i re-started MultiCharts this morning, so i logged back in manually...and forgot to connect to MC!!

Anyway, its been a week of lessons learned on platform readiness.

EDIT: WTF happened to the HSI, got out just in time...TH, are you manipulating it again??

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> LOL, no, but i moved it up to under the flag, it was at 20082. I moved it up to 20106.
> 
> heading to 20070?




Hahahaha what about now?     :microwave






Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody hell! Honkers is really holding everything down here. All the makings of a upside running in Asia/FX yet some monkey is holding Honkers back.





Trembling Hand said:


> Nah its going to have a false break and then get smashed by all the prop traders.....




Who said DOM reading is a lost art?


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Hahahaha what about now?     :microwave
> 
> Who said DOM reading is a lost art?




Gosh this market is a bit fickled... turns on a dime so easily and regularly.

This can't be a sign of bullishness, can it .


----------



## peterfootwork

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah its going to have a false break and then get smashed by all the prop traders.....




Great to see what goes on here!

They just have been shaking around alot today.

Look at the 3yr bonds too ............


----------



## notting

skc said:


> Gosh this market is a bit fickled... turns on a dime so easily and regularly.
> This can't be a sign of bullishness, can it .



It's a sign of chaos instability.  A traders dream!  
One of the most beautiful things I have ever seen.
Surely about to rip my heart out and crush it in front of my face.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Gosh this market is a bit fickled... turns on a dime so easily and regularly.
> 
> This can't be a sign of bullishness, can it .




Very counter trend right now:hide:.

CanOz


----------



## skc

notting said:


> It's a sign of chaos instability.  A traders dream!
> One of the most beautiful things I have ever seen.
> Surely about to rip my heart out and crush it in front of my face.




Trader's dream. Also my broker's dream. Paid him more commission this week than I did for the whole of April...


----------



## Joules MM1

notting said:


> It's a sign of chaos instability.




lulz, ........a opposed to stable chaos ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone looking at the two Bots fighting it out on the HSI/HHI??!!

I know how this ends,


----------



## CanOz

LOL! where do you find this stuff?

I'm guessing its going down....

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> LOL! where do you find this stuff?
> 
> I'm guessing its going down....
> 
> CanOz




Surely it must end in some sort of climax?!

Or the bot doing the downward thrusts will get its head bashed in.


----------



## avion

Newbie like me is waiting for the ride back up... !?! Anyone?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Watch the EURO futs turn over here,


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Watch the EURO futs turn over here,




1.30 retest

CanOz


----------



## notting

skc said:


> Surely it must end in some sort of climax?!
> 
> Or the bot doing the downward thrusts will get its head bashed in.




There is no reason why it cannot end in mutual blowout profit taking on increased oil production. 
You just have to pick the right entry point.
It helps if you have studied bots.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Watch the EURO futs turn over here,




Scratch that!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Scratch that!




This isn't pretty...rally over!


----------



## Joules MM1

the new app: iSpit dummy ......gold/ftse


----------



## notting

Joules MM1 said:


> lulz, ........a opposed to stable chaos ?




You got it!


----------



## Joules MM1

got a smooth sailing icon to go with that ? 



> Sentiment extreme? AAII: Bulls 25.4 v 35.4, lowest since Sept. Bears 42.1 v 28.5, highest since Oct.




futes trying to break out of the stalls before the gun goes off



> Oil&Gas Investments ‏ @OilandGasInvest
> 
> The combined wealth of Asian millionaires increased to $10.8 trillion, topping Europe for the first time, in 2010.


----------



## notting

Joules MM1 said:


> got a smooth sailing icon to go with that ?




A picture of earth from space might do it.

Or screen shot of the IBEX Prior to it's open yesterday and now. You'd only need one picture despite the the 3% down and up!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

notting said:


> A picture of earth from space might do it.
> 
> Or screen shot of the IBEX Prior to it's open yesterday and now. You'd only need one picture despite the the 3% down and up!!!




i thought we'd get a rectum rocket on the news.......slowly squeezing seems to be the next best thing......long is as longingly does.......


----------



## Trembling Hand

JPMorgan stinking up the place,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-10/jpmorgan-chase-says-cio-unit-suffered-significant-loss.html



> “This portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the firm previously believed,” the New York-based company said today in a quarterly securities filing. JPMorgan declined 5.5 percent to $38.50 in extended trading at 5:55 p.m. in New York.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Here is a good one for you gents.

Last night at 12:30 am phone rings. Its my friendly risk manager asking me whats going on with the long position I'm carrying over from yesterday on the HSI thats way way offside?



What #$%&@ position? Had an order in I forgot to cancel! Left early on a hot new date, clearly my mind was somewhere else, and it got taged and then ran 100 points down!! Now waiting for the open to see the damage. Did put an ES hedge on, luckily close to last nights high. But Ouch!!

Amateur hour!!!!!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Lots of China "data" out today.

CPI and PPI @ 11:30 Syd/Mel time
Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales @ 3:30 Syd/Mel time


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Here is a good one for you gents.
> 
> Last night at 12:30 am phone rings. Its my friendly risk manager asking me whats going on with the long position I'm carrying over from yesterday on the HSI thats way way offside?
> 
> 
> 
> What #$%&@ position? Had an order in I forgot to cancel! *Left early on a hot new date*, clearly my mind was somewhere else, and it got taged and then ran 100 points down!! Now waiting for the open to see the damage. Did put an ES hedge on, luckily close to last nights high. But Ouch!!
> 
> Amateur hour!!!!!!!




I hope she was worth it... or was she the bot you showed yesterday?

There are so many jokes one can make about your nickname and your relationships 

The JP Morgan thing should pass today soon enough. It sounds reasonably contained to that company alone. Have no idea what data to expect out of China however.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Here is a good one for you gents.
> 
> Last night at 12:30 am phone rings. Its my friendly risk manager asking me whats going on with the long position I'm carrying over from yesterday on the HSI thats way way offside?
> 
> 
> 
> What #$%&@ position? Had an order in I forgot to cancel! Left early on a hot new date, clearly my mind was somewhere else, and it got taged and then ran 100 points down!! Now waiting for the open to see the damage. Did put an ES hedge on, luckily close to last nights high. But Ouch!!
> 
> Amateur hour!!!!!!!




I'm guessing it wasn't the 1 or 2 contracts that i'd be trading!!lol!

Maybe 70 points off the close and your out...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I'm guessing it wasn't the 1 or 2 contracts that i'd be trading!!lol!
> 
> Maybe 70 points off the close and your out...
> 
> CanOz




137 points down to start the day................. lovely............


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> The JP Morgan thing should pass today soon enough. It sounds reasonably contained to that company alone. Have no idea what data to expect out of China however.




Would have thought the same with the JP thing....

China data may surprise...woo hoo.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> 137 points down to start the day................. lovely............




All better now :homer:


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> All better now :homer:
> 
> View attachment 47064




well done.....take off the numpty badge now....new line for the rule book?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Dum de da.......anyone have a feeling of impending implosion? Or a relief rally?

China 'data' big yawn - they will tell us what they want us to know, not what actually is?

Tip of the iceberg for the 'market manipulators' JPM?? Looking a bit naked about now....

Perhaps just put a blindfold on adn hit 'short' button..............

Dreaming of QE4 :


----------



## CanOz

The Kospi and the STW are sure taken a beating this morning:hammer:...seem the worst of the bunch.

CanOz


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> The Kospi and the STW are sure taken a beating this morning:hammer:...seem the worst of the bunch.
> 
> CanOz




Kospi still heading lower 

Nice strong upthrust bar gave a solid short signal @27 minutes after the open.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> The Kospi and the STW are sure taken a beating this morning:hammer:...seem the worst of the bunch.
> 
> CanOz




Yep those and Honkers and Nk all at 3 month or greater lows.


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Kospi still heading lower
> 
> Nice strong upthrust bar gave a solid short signal @27 minutes after the open.




Find a bottom at 254.20?

My system went short at 256.10 and hot the trail at 255.40...missed the second leg!

CanOz


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Find a bottom at 254.20?
> CanOz




Yeah, looking like somewhere down there might be it. My labrador is chewing at my toes so must be time for me to close it out and take him for a walk. Nice to see some movement on the Kospi again the last few days


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Lots of China "data" out today.
> 
> Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales @ 3:30 Syd/Mel time




You enjoy that!!!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> You enjoy that!!!!




Surprise!!

I was flat and eating lunch...waiting for the DAX, AUD and FESX now...

I can see how you could make money off those moves...operative word is YOU here...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Surprise!!




ouch
[video]http://www.youtube.com/v/R_B1PkgA3kA?version=3[/video]


----------



## sinner

Futs term structure... SPX, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei

Cash/Cash, frontmonth/cash, all contracts/frontmonth



Nikkei and DAX look ok, no idea what is up with the SP and FTSE contracts! Correct me if I'm wrong but short the SPY long the futs (or FTSE equiv) looks like free funding to me?


----------



## Demiurgo

Trying to figure out where we are.
Russian market, as you know all the markets are more or less correlated.
I'm not good enough with the theory of Elliott to the count is reliable, but this is what comes to me.
C waves are impulsive waves, and as such are divided into five, so what more is expected soon to start a wave two, in order to start later the wave three of the C (surely the largest one as usual), and then we will read threads on the forums saying that the world is over, LOL


----------



## CanOz

Quite downdraft on the markets this morning....my system went long on the SPI and the HSI and got stopped out on both, luckily my Kospi short is holding up...so far.

Not a great way to start the week though:flush:, behind the eight ball already!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

I haven't been idling away all this time where I haven't been trading.

I've written a new prediction/forecast engine, using completely different method, to compare with the old one.

Just testing at this point, but tonights prediction for SPY is higher close than Fridays close. It does a magnitude (0.1% up) prediction but for now just working with direction as I iron out the kinks.


----------



## Joules MM1

tweet



> Katie Martin ‏ @katie_martin_FX
> 
> Citi traders' note: "Hollande has been sworn in; he is now off to Berlin to be told what to do by – sorry I mean have dialog with Merkel"


----------



## Joules MM1

....and this weeks interweb word du jour?



> *Grexit *




......think about it

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
tweet


> DJ FX Trader ‏ @djfxtrader
> 
> #Moody's reminds investors of #AUD's Achilles heel - #Australian banks' reliance on wholesale funding. More @djfxtrader


----------



## Joules MM1

downdraft .....some not happy jan stuff......and setting up to take out weak longs and intro weak shorts.......

 Grexit excuses anyone


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> downdraft .....some not happy jan stuff......and setting up to take out weak longs and intro weak shorts.......
> 
> Grexit excuses anyone




Them's are big candles!!!



> Headlines crossing that Greek anti-bailout conservative leader Kammenos says there is no deal on government
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/InPlayEq/InPlay/InPlay.htm#ixzz1uwWt6se2


----------



## Joules MM1

how sharp is that guillotine, Can ?

:axt:


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> how sharp is that guillotine, Can ?
> 
> :axt:




Gonna need to speed up the book trader to keep track of this drop Joules!!

opcorn:corn:opcorn:

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

i'm almost out of xjo shorts hanging onto added spot sells......i think SPX can reach still 23's.......way stretched outside bands on most desks i should think......will look like a psyhco day but mebe a very good set-up for longs......oh, yummy.......


----------



## Joules MM1

i bet we open outside 3 sigma level......watch the bouncing ball


----------



## CanOz

The S&P has got to tag the Globex low before it shrugs this off.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

look at the blue bar on the right ...a few manual trades....that's the reason for looking at automation......haha


----------



## CanOz

2 ticks off the bottom....not too bad!

Yeah i like the automation, I've got too many gray hairs for that crap!

Got the bot on the EMD, YG, and the TF tonight.

Its lying in the grass waiting....

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> The S&P has got to tag the Globex low before it shrugs this off.
> 
> CanOz




with tomorrow being VIX ops exp there's a few traps set........
the index pricing is as much to do with the ops auction as any voodoo about europe..........frankly, imho, the eurozone waffle is a nice smoke screen not that there arent genuine trades flowing as a result .......


----------



## Joules MM1

By Lucia Mutikani
Mon May 14, 2012 3:40pm EDT


> Traders see turbulence as U.S. data-release rules change




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/14/usa-economy-data-idUSL1E8G8D8X20120514

......should that be some see turbulence?......others see holes to leap thru


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI doing a good impersonation of a base jumper without a parachute.   :holysheep:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> HSI doing a good impersonation of a base jumper without a parachute.   :holysheep:




Why's the US overnight futures still holding up?!


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Why's the US overnight futures still holding up?!




Yeah, watching the TF in particular, it tends to lead in after hours...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy stinky old day. Whats going on in the world? Sun still came up today didn't it?


----------



## CanOz

No 3% losses yet....

Afternoon rally??

Bright and sunny here!!

CanOz


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy stinky old day. Whats going on in the world? Sun still came up today didn't it?




There's a case to be made that XJO needs to go back to 4300 and HSI to 20,000 at some stage before the major diarrhea...

May be we'd end the week in the green... who knows.


----------



## notting

skc said:


> There's a case to be made that XJO needs to go back to 4300 and HSI to 20,000 at some stage before the major diarrhea...



All you need is Greece to form Government and to get a few more concessions from Euroland and the demented sentiment will go positive again for another period of delusion.
Other than that, the US fed may see the major risks to growth coming with the US$ rising too much against the Euro so they do more easing, which will buoy stocks and even gold might eat a few bears!


----------



## CanOz

The EUR just dropped from 1.2725 to 1.27 in 3 minutes...:hammer:


----------



## skc

notting said:


> All you need is Greece to form Government and to get a few more concessions from Euroland and the demented sentiment will go positive again for another period of delusion.
> Other than that, the US fed may see the major risks to growth coming with the US$ rising too much against the Euro so they do more easing, which will buoy stocks and even gold might eat a few bears!




Agree these are pretty reasonable scenarios.

If I was Greece I would put all available money going long the most leveraged product (some idiots in Goldmans will be able to work that up), make some noise about how each part hates the other (and hence get a lower buy price), then collude between the various parties to form a government iafter 2 weeks.

Sell those insturments at a big profit as market bounces up on the news, then secretly buy up Greek debt CDS on the cheap. After enough has been accumulated, announce that they are defaulting.

Debt is cleared and they are left with hugh profits from those trades.

Greek proceeds to bail out USA with surplus cash.


----------



## Trembling Hand

So the DAX is sitting right on support as of yesterdays close? Makes for an interesting open.


----------



## CanOz

LOL, the Kospi is now down 3%


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> LOL, the Kospi is now down 3%




Oh was just about to ask if ya happy now?


----------



## CanOz

Yup, things are really getting nasty now...my DAX system doesn't trade until at least 10 am exchange time, so maybe by that time it will retrace just in time for a mighty down draft!!artyman:


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Yup, things are really getting nasty now...my DAX system doesn't trade until at least 10 am exchange time, so maybe by that time it will retrace just in time for a mighty down draft!!artyman:




Nasty indeed. I am scared even though I run a volatility-based system. The divergence between pairs are blowing wide open.

It's time to put on some converging pairs... geez it's quick and scary out there.

Can HK get to -1000?


----------



## CanOz

Yikes, my Eur system went long...


----------



## Joules MM1

bulls be encouraged by the current overnight in spx ......i was looking for 1323's and cfd hit 1322.80......first buys......not the low until cash opens.....

follow the poms, came the cry


----------



## CanOz

I've not had a good afternoon, my dax system wanted a long but i had a data spike that looked odd and was not on the book, so i cancelled the order and restarted the strategy...it took a short, got stopped out and when i restarted the strat, after talking to IB, i saw that the original long was profitable and the trail got hit....i'm pissed off:swear:

Of course thats when i tried my hand at making it back descretionary...it got worse. I just never learn:banghead
Its not been a good day...


----------



## Joules MM1

onto the next gig, Can 

i have a few old wallets that were worn to the nub, empty......you'll smash them in the teeth soon enough whomever the poor b'stards are at the time...... :sword::sword::sword::sword: 

parry thrust retreat


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> onto the next gig, Can
> 
> i have a few old wallets that were worn to the nub, empty......you'll smash them in the teeth soon enough whomever the poor b'stards are at the time...... :sword::sword::sword::sword:
> 
> parry thrust retreat




Thanks mate, I've got learn to detach from the market action :error: and let the expectancy:robot2: take over.

Perhaps i could consume myself with record keeping instead of being consumed with the development of candlesticks!!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

> FuturesTrader71 ‏ @FuturesTrader71
> 
> 3 minutes to open. Stick to ur risk limits & respect ur losses. A quick loss is a good loss as it allows u to move on to ur next trade




amen !


----------



## Joules MM1

closed my spx long at 38 ......weak, no follow-through vols, no fighting.....looks like a roller


----------



## Joules MM1

and no sellers......duh........fomc 4 am .....east


----------



## StumpyPhantom

Joules MM1 said:


> and no sellers......duh........fomc 4 am .....east




do you get any sleep at all?


----------



## Timmy

ECB cutting off some Greek banks.
ELA & Greek Central Bank now source for them. GL with that.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Funny day today. No games to be played with French & German Holiday. 

Flip floppy wish-washie?


----------



## skc

Timmy said:


> ECB cutting off some Greek banks.
> ELA & Greek Central Bank now source for them. GL with that.




Read the headline this morning and I am surprised there aren't bigger reaction to that.

Surely any reasonable Greek would go line up at the bank and get physical Euros out of the banks and put it under the mattress.

This is not like the Argentinan default where the old peso becomes stranded overnight... you just can't do that with the Greek Euros - not the physical ones anyway.

Without the ECB can they last until the re-election? 

And what about the Italians / Spaniards? Wouldn't you at least start doing the same thing?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Funny day today. No games to be played with French & German Holiday.




Huh German futs about  to open?


----------



## CanOz

While keeping my eyes off my system today i was quite happily losing money on the SIM, until the DAX opened...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz is that the Seng?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> CanOz is that the Seng?




oops, yes it is...forgot to mention that.

I showed you mine, can you show us your's??

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> oops, yes it is...forgot to mention that.
> 
> I showed you mine, can you show us your's??
> 
> CanOz




I can but then the black helis will descend from the sky and :aliena:

All part of the secretive world of market manipulation that I signed up for a few months ago........


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> I can but then the black helis will descend from the sky and :aliena:
> 
> All part of the secretive world of market manipulation that I signed up for a few months ago........




Are you with a prop shop now??


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Are you with a prop shop now??




Yep...    imp:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep...    imp:




Ahh, well done. Can you send us a photo of the 'desk' or the 'floor'?

CanOz


----------



## avion

Why the prop shop TH? What can they offer you that you do not have yourself? I am guessing more money to trade with, ie leverage, but we thought you already got the millions to play with, how big is your d**k now? :boy:


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Why the prop shop TH? What can they offer you that you do not have yourself? I am guessing more money to trade with, ie leverage, but we thought you already got the millions to play with, how big is your d**k now? :boy:




Why?

Unlimited size, *ZERO *risk, most of the profit............ whats not to love about it?



Chance to be a contender


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Chance to be a contender




Go get them TH!


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> I can but then the black helis will descend from the sky and :aliena:
> 
> All part of the secretive world of market manipulation that I signed up for a few months ago........




I knew there was a reason you were protecting those HFT firms with co-located servers.

In fact I suspect one of those servers is hollow and is really a workstation with you sitting inside.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> I knew there was a reason you were protecting those HFT firms with co-located servers.
> 
> In fact I suspect one of those servers is hollow and is really a workstation with you sitting inside.




Yeah its working well. All except this can here for....waste.... is getting a little full. Could you send someone around to empty it.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah its working well. All except this can here for....waste.... is getting a little full. Could you send someone around to empty it.




We'll send SCM over.....:run:.....he needs a top up...haven't seen him around for a couple of days.

CanOz


----------



## Starcraftmazter

CanOz said:


> We'll send SCM over.....:run:.....he needs a top up...haven't seen him around for a couple of days.
> 
> CanOz




"I have some spare time tonight, I think I'll check ASF, see what people have been upto".

This place never disappoints


----------



## CanOz

Starcraftmazter said:


> "I have some spare time tonight, I think I'll check ASF, see what people have been upto".
> 
> This place never disappoints




LOL, glad you could see the lighter side SCM!

CanOz


----------



## Timmy

skc said:


> Read the headline this morning and I am surprised there aren't bigger reaction to that.
> 
> Surely any reasonable Greek would go line up at the bank and get physical Euros out of the banks and put it under the mattress.
> 
> This is not like the Argentinan default where the old peso becomes stranded overnight... you just can't do that with the Greek Euros - not the physical ones anyway.
> 
> Without the ECB can they last until the re-election?
> 
> And what about the Italians / Spaniards? Wouldn't you at least start doing the same thing?




There was chatter about this a few hours before the news hit. So some of it was baked in already. 

As for your other points ... fair ones ... FIIK


----------



## CanOz

If 1315 on the ES doesn't hold then :hide: 1300...here we come!! Gotta catch a :bounce: there...


----------



## CanOz

Whoooooaaa! Surprise!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> If 1315 on the ES doesn't hold then :hide: 1300...here we come!! Gotta catch a :bounce: there...




-1400 on NYSE TICK $ES_F $$

:viking:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Ahh, well done. Can you send us a photo of the 'desk' or the 'floor'?
> 
> CanOz




Have a look yourself,

http://www.propex.net.au/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=90:experienced-traders&Itemid=165


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kospi down 3%. Nasty week there.  Dip buyers have been hammered all week :freak3:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Strangely Shanghai still not anywhere near lows,

Hasn't even taken out yesterdays low.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Strangely Shanghai still not anywhere near lows,
> 
> Hasn't even taken out yesterdays low.




Yeah I've noticed that too, its just sitting there...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Funny old start to the HSI. Someone has one of those evil sticky bots running............... going nowhere!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Funny old start to the HSI. Someone has one of those evil sticky bots running............... going nowhere!!




Calm before the storm...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Calm before the storm...




Maybe. Probably has more to do with the directional weekly pattern coming to a close. Lots of strong shorts, will not take much for them to hold this down and cover at the lows of the week,





Clearly !


----------



## CanOz

Great, hold it down will ya!:horse:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Great, hold it down will ya!:horse:




Actually I've done more longs than shorts so far. :luigi::rippergun


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Have a look yourself,
> 
> http://www.propex.net.au/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=90:experienced-traders&Itemid=165




nice


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> nice




Agree, nice little pad and the ability to learn from experienced traders.

TH, are all of the traders trading discretionary similar to you or are there guys/girls trading automated systems?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> TH, are all of the traders trading discretionary similar to you or are there guys/girls trading automated systems?
> 
> CanOz




I think mostly discretionary but I wouldn't know really. I'm doing it remotely. I've only spent a few days there. Most are doing spreading. That's why you see the screens with 10 different DOMs.



CanOz said:


> Agree, nice little pad and the ability to learn from experienced traders.



You would be surprised at how little there is to learn. In fact I remember what I learnt the first time that I tried out here about 80 years ago. Have a guess what it is?


----------



## CanOz

You mean 8 years ago

No idea...need a hint:dunno:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> You mean 8 years ago
> 
> No idea...need a hint:dunno:




Yeah I probably do mean 8 just feels like 80!

Secret is that there is not much to learn from good traders. ie no secret, just trade.


----------



## CanOz

Well TH must be hard at work by now, there is finally some HSI action. Hope ya had a good lunch!
Bit of bounce back into 18540 i reckon...Strewth...not to be for now..
CanOz


----------



## tech/a

FTSE 
tankin nicely


----------



## tech/a

33 ticks 20 min

Out for dinner


----------



## Joules MM1

tech/a said:


> 33 ticks 20 min
> 
> Out for dinner




WD, tech

and not surprising we're in Chef Sushi country on spx......we're at the bottom of 3 sigma, ops exp and outside 20/20 bolls.....extreming reaming.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Have a look yourself,
> 
> http://www.propex.net.au/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=90:experienced-traders&Itemid=165




*Q: Am I expected to cover losses?*

 No. We wear the loss unless you trade  outside of your contractual terms (eg. breaking stop loss limits or  *trading while intoxicated*). Fortunately this has not happened to date.


DOH!

Looks like a DCB or short covering any second now??


----------



## sinner

Carry traders getting pummelled, 100 day lows on the carry fund


----------



## Joules MM1

SML not supporting anything .......drag out shlup fest....no upside high beta leadership anywhere

call the sushi chef ....:sword:


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> SML not supporting anything .......drag out shlup fest....no upside high beta leadership anywhere
> 
> call the sushi chef ....:sword:




Its that bloody FaceBook!!:horse:


----------



## sinner

Back in the saddle today! First day in weeks. AUD looking real nice for moves, in fact everything looking real juicy with this vol.

I took a few pips on an intraday fade, bit 'trembling' myself trading at usual size after the hiatus so I might tone the size down a little after lunch.


----------



## sinner

Doesn't look like much was missed over lunch, and the range has turned crap. 



Things aren't looking good for the longs imho, especially if 0.99 isn't sticky for the next few hours. She's making a run for those lows as I type.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

.


.


----------



## sinner

Some nice moves in there, a bit of patience required considering how tight the daily ranges have become. Good warmup for Wednesdays!


----------



## Joules MM1

g'day to Dionysius Toast .......

nice of you to join the fraternity of, err, fraternity people 

:bekloppt: 

DT is an ardent user of the DOM and a smart operator........sure he'll have a good raport with us the same way he does the gang at T2W in the uk......well most of them :bbat:

ok, shpiel over.....oh, yeah.......we got better icons just ask jedi master,Can :robot2:


----------



## dionysustoast

lol @ Joules - how did you do that?

I just registered yesterday, had someone mention the forum, so thought I'd take a peek.

I feel semi-stalked already!


----------



## CanOz

dionysustoast said:


> lol @ Joules - how did you do that?
> 
> I just registered yesterday, had someone mention the forum, so thought I'd take a peek.
> 
> I feel semi-stalked already!




Good grief mate, don't you ever sleep?:shake:

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

China turns Kermit........... 

Weird stuff happens there!!


----------



## Joules MM1

bangkok, china, melbourne......the other vicious triad 

soft shoe shufflers, more like


----------



## sinner

What a day so far! Compared to the EUR, the AUD has been a unicorn ride. Loving it. Wasn't surprised to see the overnight massacre.



dionysustoast said:


> I just registered yesterday, had someone mention the forum, so thought I'd take a peek.




Welcome. Do you trade internationally from Bangkok? How's the latency to other exchanges? Or, are you trading the SET?


----------



## Trembling Hand

12:30 melb time - HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI. Been a mover last few times.


----------



## CanOz

Woo hoo! The DAX dropped 100 points in 9 minutes!!:nunchux:

Caught the break that time, took (SIM) profit too soon, it went clean through the prior close...

This is nasty!:fan

CanOz


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Woo hoo! The DAX dropped 100 points in 9 minutes!!:nunchux:
> CanOz




Market, quite understandably did not like this much!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47546752

In the spirit of McLovin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWuXmfgXVxY


----------



## CanOz

Europe was well on its way down about 20 minutes before that, but the pace of the decline increased when that crossed the wires.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Europe was well on its way down about 20 minutes before that, but the pace of the decline increased when that crossed the wires.
> 
> CanOz




Very resilient. FTSE just making new daily highs. DAX pushing up nicely as well. See Honkers broke a new short selling record yesterday. Bound to see even more erratic moves.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Very resilient. FTSE just making new daily highs. DAX pushing up nicely as well. See Honkers broke a new short selling record yesterday. Bound to see even more erratic moves.




Yeah the Dax is doing well in recovering that panic selling. There were no orders in sight when it dropped, just thin air...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Honkers broke a new short selling record yesterday. Bound to see even more erratic moves.






bring it, the squeeeeez


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yeah the Dax is doing well in recovering that panic selling. There were no orders in sight when it dropped, just thin air...
> 
> CanOz



 LOL I got short full size (first time ) at the top on the HSI @ the DAX open... Really really dark with myself, spewed it up  too soon when we started to get all messy before that second big drop.



Joules MM1 said:


> bring it, the squeeeeez




yeah it will come.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> See Honkers broke a new short selling record yesterday. Bound to see even more erratic moves.




I saw that on the Bloomy, they showed a pic of the exchange...i always chuckle when i see it because (I'm sure you must have been there) no one trades on the floor now. I asked them why there were only a few traders there, and the screens were so old? They said all the trading is done remotely of course, and that only people who wanted cheap seats were trading there and they we happy that they had a few traders on the exchange floor!

Nice area that, love honkers.

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Definitely not looking a gift horse in the mouth with that *loverly* squeeze into Tokyo open this morning. Take my profits and call it a week.




Yesterday was a shemozzle thanks to poor size control on my part, not from lack of opportunity.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Definitely not looking a gift horse in the mouth with that *loverly* squeeze into Tokyo open this morning. Take my profits and call it a week.
> 
> View attachment 47209
> 
> Yesterday was a shemozzle thanks to poor size control on my part, not from lack of opportunity.




What's the scale?


----------



## CanOz

Honker is bonkers this morning, WTF???

Saw you post sinner and was thinking short squeeze....!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> What's the scale?




Adjusted for account, so each line is one R calculated from the start of the week volatility. In this case that's about R=0.2%, with a net profit about 1.3% of the account. 

Just trying a few different styles out, usually I go with size+P/L columns rather than normal scatter so you can see the efficiency i.e. how much size was required to generate a particular run of wins/losses. Sometimes the chart function of Excel gets the better of me 



> Saw you post sinner and was thinking short squeeze....!




She came as quickly as she went, at least on the AUD...


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Adjusted for account, so each line is one R calculated from the start of the week volatility. In this case that's about R=0.2%, with a net profit about 1.3% of the account. .




Nice week. 3% week for me


----------



## CanOz

Woo hoo, bit of a squeeze on the DAX!:whip


----------



## CanOz

Well...the Dax turned bearish in a hurry again....


----------



## sinner

Lots of squeeze on the Monday open, but I did notice all the pairs still playing along with their sentiment nicely. AUD/JPY was good for shorts and GBP/USD good for longs. 

I'm carefully selling highs for a few pts in my favourite Tokyo pair with a good run so far. Don't usually like Mondays but it was too tempting this morning to not hit something.


----------



## Joules MM1

simple rotations......nice day......


----------



## Joules MM1

got this itchy feeling a close above 18850 honkers is a good launch pad......anyone ?

i'm mostly long side today......and locals liked the low after the cash open


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> got this itchy feeling a close above 18850 honkers is a good launch pad......anyone ?
> 
> i'm mostly long side today......and locals liked the low after the cash open




I wouldn't be waiting till then. But its a funny day everything else is running, STW, Kospi, SPI, Shanghai, HHI, But Hang Send still an inside day!?


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't be waiting till then. But its a funny day everything else is running, STW, Kospi, SPI, Shanghai, HHI, But Hang Send still an inside day!?




not keen to hang on overnight longs but every test so far today has lent to upward bias.....not manufactured i think......locals like what they see.....better than covering....so when the covering does come on honkers....be nice cheese


----------



## Joules MM1

nice slow take of the serious blag line of 23rd 8am line on honkers


----------



## sinner

9858 to 9868 in the AUD has become a serious fight over the last hour. Only a little bit of room to move about but enough to take a few when nobodies looking. She's running for it now, word on the wire is that sovs were offering bigtime yesterday and lots of buy stops above 9925.


----------



## sinner

First attempt to increase intraday trade frequency. AUDUSD, 3PM-7PM (Melbourne time):




Summary:
* A losing day. Worse, I was out of the money *all* day.
* Frequency is all that matters. Stop looking for outliers! Take what's on the table and wait for the next setup. All major losses were contributed by trades which while in profit at one point, I left them expecting a runner and then as they reversed held on expecting my previous gains. Control of these trades would have cleaned the <0 scatter considerably. Only one expected runner actually paid off as an outlier.
* Losers can be tightened considerably, if it doesn't go quickly, then just cut the trade as probability indicates an adverse movement will be a loser. i.e. tightening stops slightly should increase performance significantly. *Winners don't hang around at your entry price.*
* Stress is much worse than waiting for a high probability position trade. This is significantly amplified if you can't get in the money.
* Urge to fade both directions must be controlled: usually I don't mind trading counter-trend (especially as this happens a lot during Tokyo), but with mean reversion this can be a big issue. Performance was significantly higher on trades which were "in line" with my well quantified view of market sentiment, other trades could have been ignored safely but I took them anyway to my detriment.

I got better (at cutting losers and sizing on performance) as the day wound down but decided not to push it further and eat my loss.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> First attempt to increase intraday trade frequency. AUDUSD, 3PM-7PM (Melbourne time):
> * A losing day. Worse, I was out of the money *all* day.




Pretty tough day. One direction pretty much all day without a pull back. 

I got absolutely smashed


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Pretty tough day. One direction pretty much all day without a pull back.
> 
> I got absolutely smashed




So you must almost/actually be market making. 

I would've thought optimal strat was to only fade breaks which go against the trend/sentiment/whatever? Or if you don't wanna give up frequency buy a straddle and scalp the f out of gamma to take the whole days variance? You could be the ultimate delta hedger...

Can understand if the strat is MM or something very close to it why you would trade no matter what but otherwise assume you'd be aiming to optimise for these days. Either that or you don't care 'cos a few days of chop will make up the difference and then some?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just another day in paradise. Theories always good. Practise day in day out a little diff!


----------



## notting

sinner said:


> Performance was significantly higher on trades which were "in line" with my well quantified view of market sentiment




Dangerous, it rarely makes such consistent sense, so what metric of expectancy could you possibly be relying upon? Unless your radar is really fine tuned and that's one *major art*, Oh Master!
However, the easiest time to trade sentiment, in my experience, is when markets are setting up for a crash, or are crashing.  Which is kind of the case now looking toward those guys in tights flapping red sheets, dwarfed by the grizzly shadow behind them!


----------



## sinner

notting said:


> Dangerous, it rarely makes such consistent sense, so what metric of expectancy could you possibly be relying upon? Unless your radar is really fine tuned and that's one *major art*, Oh Master!




Relying on the sentiment component of my daily predictor, which gauges changes in various (public) FX sentiment/book aggregates and weights them by statistical significance for return prediction. 

As part of a larger model it does a pretty good job of moderating vol at tops and bottoms on the daily and I use it on it's own (with success) as a directional and sizing tool in my discretionary intraday trading. 

Today I didn't use it since I was trying to increase frequency of trades with a much 'faster' strategy. Only in hindsight did I note it would have helped.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> which gauges changes in various (public) FX sentiment/book aggregates and weights them by statistical significance for return prediction.




Cool...:brille:


----------



## notting

sinner said:


> As part of a larger model it does a pretty good job of moderating vol at tops and bottoms on the daily and I use it on it's own (with success) as a directional and sizing tool in my discretionary intraday trading.




I think that was what I needed to hear! Thanks for the reply.


----------



## CanOz

Honkers is taking a beating this morning...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Honkers is taking a beating this morning...




F me! Look at the volume!! Some serious work getting done.


----------



## Joules MM1

i bought 677's honkers

man waiting on side of mountain with mouth wide open waiting for roast duck to fly in......he waits a long time


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Honkers is taking a beating this morning...




Seeeh! I'm long big into that. Hold...... Please


----------



## CanOz

Watching that, the XINA50 and the ES....reluctant to go lower...

You guys might be ok LOL!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Watching that, the XINA50 and the ES....reluctant to go lower...
> 
> You guys might be ok LOL!
> 
> CanOz




F the VOL!!! iceberg city!


----------



## CanOz

LOL....

I've not got a chart up, only the book but I'm guessing it looks like this???



CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

popped the round number at 600 .....long tails.....holding


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> popped the round number at 600 .....long tails.....holding




What data is it your looking at?


----------



## Joules MM1

and gold still selling.......bout to pass the line of deliverance......


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> What data is it your looking at?




just sub 1 min charts...cfd's


----------



## Joules MM1

spx overnights holding steady and xjo refuses to make lower lows


----------



## Joules MM1

xjo goes bid.....think we can make green by close of cash session...... ?


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> LOL....
> 
> I've not got a chart up, only the book but I'm guessing it looks like this???
> 
> 
> 
> CanOz




That's a bull chart compared to the one that's running atm


----------



## CanOz

Things are pretty nasty, bad data out of the US tonight could really make a mess of this next leg down...

CanOz

edit...WTF??


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Things are pretty nasty, bad data out of the US tonight could really make a mess of this next leg down...
> 
> CanOz
> 
> edit...WTF??



 tweet


> Futures are ripping on this news: EU WILLING TO `ENVISAGE' DIRECT ESM BANK RECAPITALIZATIONS


----------



## Trembling Hand

Betcha it just spooks the market.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Betcha it just spooks the market.




Perfect time to short...

"Evisage". Lol.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ES, Euro,

Roly Poly


----------



## CanOz

I was making a lasagne...missed it. total selling into that spike, 2 big bergs on the ES just before the pivot retest...lots of icebergs on the bid though on the way down though...

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

spikes 10 full points on "envisage"....what the. 

lucky I had just got long at 20.75, pity it was in a spread though. Gotta love those WTF moments when all bids and offers disappear from the ladder LOL


----------



## Joules MM1

covering.......oh, let the praises begin


----------



## Joules MM1

poms want to cover the base of that release


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

anyone watching the ES? lots of spoofing and bergs(I think?) at 1321.75, seems to be anyway, flashing 2500 or so, then 1800, keeps hovering around there. See what it does from here I guess.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> anyone watching the ES? lots of spoofing and bergs(I think?) at 1321.75, seems to be anyway, flashing 2500 or so, then 1800, keeps hovering around there. See what it does from here I guess.




Both the Offer and the Bid, 8 so far...

I little com-bot?

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Both the Offer and the Bid, 8 so far...
> 
> I little com-bot?
> 
> CanOz




and gold going for the dummy spit.......which is nice


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee that all worked out well last night didn't it!!?? 

Envisage  LOL!

 :freak3:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee that all worked out well last night didn't it!!??
> 
> Envisage  LOL!
> 
> :freak3:




Envisage... that's a much higher level of conviction than "dreaming"...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Envisage... that's a much higher level of conviction than "dreaming"...




Oh, is it? Good. I'm always accused of sitting around doing nothing productive and dreaming all day.

I'm going to envisage things from now on.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh, is it? Good. I'm always accused of sitting around doing nothing productive and dreaming all day.
> 
> I'm going to envisage things from now on.




I am going to envisage myself dreaming... or should I dream about envisaging 

The SPI is showing plenty of strength so far this morning. Is the high in?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> The SPI is showing plenty of strength so far this morning. Is the high in?




Kospi same. HSI has been a real stinker lately. Today will be another goody for sure.

All leading up to official China PMI tomorrow.  :horse:


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> All leading up to official China PMI tomorrow.  :horse:




Turning quite neutral here personally. If I had to take odds on the next 6 months I'd be betting long, at least in the DAX and SPX.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Turning quite neutral here personally. If I had to take odds on the next 6 months I'd be betting long, at least in the DAX and SPX.




6 months!...... Won't we all be eating tinned apricots and hiding in bunkers by then?


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> 6 months!...... Won't we all be eating tinned apricots and hiding in bunkers by then?




I am waiting on one of those, but currently it's timed to start early 2013...

Personal preference here, but if it's apricots and bunkers time then I'd rather make my way towards the equator and do fresh mangoes and sleeping on beaches in FNQ


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> 6 months!...... Won't we all be eating tinned apricots and hiding in bunkers by then?




that's a great movie.......i wonder if i could eat gold bars if that happens......


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> that's a great movie.......i wonder if i could eat gold bars if that happens......




No you use them as a club to hit the marauding mobs with.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> No you use them as a club to hit the marauding mobs with.




You'll be overrun in minutes.

There is only one way to go


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> You'll be overrun in minutes.
> 
> There is only one way to go
> 
> View attachment 47246




so, is that like the desert version of yer grandmothers fireplace set?


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> so, is that like the desert version of yer grandmothers fireplace set?




Yerp except you can hedge it on the COMEX instead of having to take out contents insurance


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Yerp except you can hedge it on the COMEX instead of having to take out contents insurance




Wasn't that Saddam's or something like that?


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Yerp except you can hedge it on the COMEX instead of having to take out contents insurance




still....Brasso futes looking strong

:grinsking


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Wasn't that Saddam's or something like that?
> 
> 
> CanOz




If he wanted to keep it he shouldn't have sold all those calls against it!


----------



## Joules MM1

HSI got a little gas under it thru basic res levels......exhausted sellers

xjo looking like a long all day.....can we go green close today instead of yesterday?


----------



## CanOz

A little gas, f*** the ES took off with out even a retest...

Crazy markets....

A sniff of a rumor and whoosh off it goes!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

5:00pm (SYD time)	EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks

Wonder what great imaginings will come from that?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> 5:00pm (SYD time)	EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
> 
> Wonder what great imaginings will come from that?




I'm _envisaging_ all sorts.


----------



## CanOz

You know it makes the most sense for Germany to leave the Euro...imagine, they go back to the DM and they'd get heaps of interest. Leave the rest of Europe to sort themselves out:nosympath...I realize its not that simple but it still would be appealing if you were Germany i reckon...

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> A little gas, f*** the ES took off with out even a retest...
> 
> Crazy markets....
> 
> A sniff of a rumor and whoosh off it goes!
> 
> CanOz




I read today's action all wrong... I thought it was going to fold after lunch but it grinded up pretty well instead.

But overall a pretty nice double digit month for me


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> You know it makes the most sense for Germany to leave the Euro...imagine, they go back to the DM and they'd get heaps of interest. Leave the rest of Europe to sort themselves out:nosympath...I realize its not that simple but it still would be appealing if you were Germany i reckon...
> 
> CanOz




For a bit of conspiracy theory...
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/germany-already-printing-money…-deutsche-marks


----------



## Joules MM1

skc said:


> For a bit of conspiracy theory...
> http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/germany-already-printing-money…-deutsche-marks




hmmmm.....Phoenix Capital Research......renamed Phoney Carcus not longer after being left by all their customers for just making stuff up as they go along......no real evidence, as usual.....:shake:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Yawwwnnn. This the dead calm before ADP? Not much happening. :sheep:


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yawwwnnn. This the dead calm before ADP? Not much happening. :sheep:




Thankfully i am now having data issues....c:


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yawwwnnn. This the dead calm before ADP? Not much happening. :sheep:




Right on cue Sam; getting a little titchy.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Right on cue Sam; getting a little titchy.




Accidentally clicking at market on TT by dragging windows over the top is keeping me entertained


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Accidentally clicking at market on TT by dragging windows over the top is keeping me entertained




(dog backwards (try it)) its a piece of Sh!te isn't it?!


----------



## CanOz

Getting a little lift from that abc correction...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Love to see your TT DOMs...here is my NT DOM with the new tools.

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> (dog backwards (try it)) its a piece of Sh!te isn't it?!




It's excellent, I love it how SFE stuff is massively inaccurate too. Great feature. 

Hey isn't ADP usually on Wednesday nights? or am I having a brain fade? Day later because of the holiday or something maybe.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Love to see your TT DOMs...here is my NT DOM with the new tools.
> 
> CanOz




Ahh you got the Jigsaw DOM, how do you find it? Saw DT using that over on T2W. 

TT DOM....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Love to see your TT DOMs...here is my NT DOM with the new tools.
> 
> CanOz




LOL too much............ :emp:


----------



## CanOz

Well its better than trying to read an NT DOM, with the prints lingering a while. I can now look at a TWS DOM and at least i am looking for the same thing. Great training tool, why are the all not like this?

With a bad case of ADD i have a hard time watching anything for too long. I've got John Grady's video from TT on treasuries, can't figure how he recalls so much happen so quickly....and the bonds are relatively slow moving...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL too much............ :emp:




Whaaaaat?  Whats the problem with seeing someone elses setup?

Doh!

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Mm they aren't too bad, can get a move on sometimes. He's usually only going for a few ticks anyway and he likes the thicker markets to read the book. 

I like the CQG DOM actually, shows how much has traded at the current bid/offer on the left as well as the total cumulative on the right, quite a good feature when you get 1's spurting through like crazy on the ES or something.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Whaaaaat?  Whats the problem with seeing someone elses setup?
> 
> Doh!
> 
> CanOz




Gave me a headache just trying to figure out the pic. Would give me PTSD if I had to look at that all day.

And anyway we all know the DOM doesn't work.............................


----------



## CanOz

I like to the fact that you can customize it all. I like the two time and sales i can use for speed. It also reconstructs the sales, so its not all aggregated.

I've not seen the CQG DOM. I would have thought TT would be a little more innovative, didn't you say TH,that they patented the thing?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I've not seen the CQG DOM. I would have thought TT would be a little more innovative,




Yeah you would think so wouldn't you? But its not. IB's is better! 

And yeah they have the patent on the whole price ladder thing.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

NT has a static DOM, CQG has a static DOM, there must be some deal they're doing with TT to have it? Stuff all has changed with TT either, as far as features/layout go, for the cost of it and they have a patent, you'd think they'd be keeping up with the competition. 

Yeah DOM is useless, I just have mine up for the pretty colours.........


----------



## Joules MM1

ha, ADP ! ......much ado about zip


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Well that was a nice #@%$$^....I'll add it to the list. :bonk::bananasmi:chainsaw:


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Well that was a nice #@%$$^....I'll add it to the list. :bonk::bananasmi:chainsaw:




 LOL, i can never get on the right side of the ES on the open...Viscous downdraft.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

snippets of wise-isms



> Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass
> 
> Disappointing (across the board) economic stats this AM. Sitting on hands, because when wrong (as I am) it is the best policy.


----------



## CanOz

Unreal how the pros can sit there soaking everything up and turn a market around in the face of all that selling...

A ton of ice burgs, orders that hit the bid less than 500 and traded well over 1000 contracts.

Fascinating to watch!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Unreal how the pros can sit there soaking everything up and turn a market around in the face of all that selling...
> 
> A ton of ice burgs, orders that hit the bid less than 500 and traded well over 1000 contracts.
> 
> Fascinating to watch!
> 
> CanOz




yes, here's FT71's pre-prep study look at vpoc ......





http://screencast.com/t/n1T5HPmYNuY


----------



## sinner

Apparently lots of Sov buying in the AUD overnight down on the lows and as usual any specs who managed to catch a ride are liquidating as the sessions roll over.


----------



## Trembling Hand

China PMI really stinking up the place.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> China PMI really stinking up the place.




And now we have a "PMI-sucked-but-it-surely-means-a-better-chance-of-stimulus rally"?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> And now we have a "PMI-sucked-but-it-surely-means-a-better-chance-of-stimulus rally"?




Another China number @ 12:30 SYD/MEL


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Another China number @ 12:30 SYD/MEL




hsbc......should be quiet


----------



## Joules MM1

ever have one of those days....stuck on the bid side......baaaaaaaah


----------



## sinner

Blammmmm....what a great day for trading!

Missed the PMI drop, was in the middle of a phone conversation. Caught this in one at full size:




I love those clean swings without any DD on my side.

9675 is def the line in the sand.


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> Another China number @ 12:30 SYD/MEL




Well and truely priced in from the get go.
Wonder what the Yanks will do with it.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Blammmmm....what a great day for trading!
> 
> Missed the PMI drop, was in the middle of a phone conversation. Caught this in one at full size:
> View attachment 47270
> 
> 
> I love those clean swings without any DD on my side.
> 
> 9675 is def the line in the sand.




hang onto that thought.....playing dueling banjo's with the shorts


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> hang onto that thought.....playing dueling banjo's with the shorts


----------



## CanOz

LOL, Honkers is on crack!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> LOL, Honkers is on crack!




i think it's fairly common in a conjestion zone to fill the high of the gap and get shorters come in and swamp the upside after the stops have been triggered.......all in  days work.......hsi still in rotation.....so, question is, what are we trying to achieve down here? 

tasty lot of shorts getting tastier for the longs to chew on as it must be very tempting to add to shorts on a lazy up day......


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> LOL, Honkers is on crack!




As usual!


----------



## CanOz

Sheeesh, why is the TF off -.75%

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

The Dax is getting fleeced!:holysheep::badass:


----------



## Joules MM1

gold already dosed off 1550 prior to release.....a lot of lunches are getting regurged.....


----------



## CanOz

Waiting patiently for NFP!!corn:

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Waiting patiently for NFP!!corn:
> 
> CanOz




And we have... Carnage!


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> And we have... Carnage!




F*** me, the Dax dropped 50 points...got to be a fade in this, look at gold, QE3 here come!

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

That's a messy start to the month, we either have a massive tanking on our hands or the market shakes it off in favor of easing!

CanOz


----------



## Ves

CanOz said:


> we either have a massive tanking on our hands
> CanOz



Pretty please with a cherry on top?


----------



## Timmy

I'm hearing rumours that souvlaki shops in Marrickville will only be accepting drachma.

And the kebab shops are running out of chicken 'cause all the chooks are running around like chooks with their heads cut off.


----------



## notting

notting said:


> when markets are setting up for a crash, or are crashing.  Which is kind of the case now looking toward those guys in tights flapping red sheets, dwarfed by the *grizzly shadow *behind them!




Which turns out to have been the US NFP - the only hope left in the market. 
Gone.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> I'm hearing rumours that souvlaki shops in Marrickville will only be accepting drachma.
> 
> And the kebab shops are running out of chicken 'cause all the chooks are running around like chooks with their heads cut off.




Best post of the 520 in this thread. LOL!!

:jump:


----------



## Joules MM1

ex Walter Murphy blog


----------



## CanOz

ROFL! 

Good stuff!

CanOz


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Gold at $1m, love it


----------



## CanOz

Starcraftmazter said:


> Gold at $1m, love it




Seeing my tailor tomorrow...

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Opinions for today? On Friday my predictor spat out HSI (cash) down today and SPY up. That'd make Asia a a fade later on tonight if the prediction is correct.


----------



## sinner

Where is everyone?

Lots of fun to be had today!


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Where is everyone?
> 
> Lots of fun to be had today!




I'm still here, trading honkers on the sim, crazy old market. :asdf:

It's range bound, no its going trend up, no its range bound...no its broken down....no its range bound...lol

TH, you are a prodigy.:bowdown:

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Where is everyone?
> 
> Lots of fun to be had today!




awaiting HSI to perform a little rollover......maybe a twist or two on the way


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> awaiting HSI to perform a little rollover......maybe a twist or two on the way




Yeah I managed to finally catch the break on the test...not without a little blood first though however...lol!

Heading for the S1...now trying to get back in...

CanOz


----------



## sinner

P/Lwise not a great day for me, but not bad either, definitely enough for beer money  ...winding down till London opens. Not game to trade in front of the RBA rates decision in 30 mins.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> P/Lwise not a great day for me, but not bad either, definitely enough for beer money  ...winding down till London opens. Not game to trade in front of the RBA rates decision in 30 mins.




lulz.....you mean the micro buzz of non-acitivity ?


----------



## prawn_86

CanOz said:


> Seeing my tailor tomorrow...
> 
> CanOz




I actually bought a damn fine, tailored suit from an upmarket boutique tailor in Syd, and it was around about the price of an ounce of gold. Obviously they are a lot cheaper in Asian countries though


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> lulz.....you mean the micro buzz of non-acitivity ?




Yeah crap I just remember still bank holidays. Might start at Frankfurt then and cut the day short.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Yeah crap I just remember still bank holidays. Might start at Frankfurt then and cut the day short.




Exactly what hours do you sleep, Sinner?


----------



## sinner

and that's with no rate change! Imagine if they'd bumped it 25bps in either direction...


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> Exactly what hours do you sleep, Sinner?




I am well beyond the days of staying up all night to try and catch every little thing skc...intraday I trade session opens (Tokyo and LO my favs, NY if the timezones are favorable but otherwise sleep) and if there are daily orders for NY then I will set my alarm for 10 mins before NY closes. For daily trades I generate decision tables beforehand, so I know exactly what I need to do for any given permutation of closing price.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> and that's with no rate change! Imagine if they'd bumped it 25bps in either direction...




Huh have I just travel to some parallel universe?


----------



## notting

skc said:


> Exactly what hours do you sleep, Sinner?




Haven't you heard? There is no rest for the wicked!:evilburn:


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> I am well beyond the days of staying up all night to try and catch every little thing skc...intraday I trade session opens (Tokyo and LO my favs, NY if the timezones are favorable but otherwise sleep) and if there are daily orders for NY then I will set my alarm for 10 mins before NY closes. *For daily trades I generate decision tables beforehand, so I know exactly what I need to do for any given permutation of closing price.*




All new traders should read that several times...



Trembling Hand said:


> Huh have I just travel to some parallel universe?




May be Sinner predicts that the banks are passing on 0 bps of the cut anyway.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Huh have I just travel to some parallel universe?




Sorry lads! 

I only checked after the fact, and mis-read the data.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL at the EUR





I think that IS a break down


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers....hows that for a roll 

edit.......dang......not as good as euro but


----------



## Joules MM1

anyone liking gold for a head south below 1610 ?


----------



## kid hustlr

euro chart is incredible


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hows that going?


----------



## CanOz

Far out, Dax downdraft!!


----------



## sinner

I don't like that the $NYSI dropped below -500 but shorter term breadth doesn't look horrible...




and the useful backtest tool from indexindicators.com provides us with the results for a pretty good swing setup (triggered last night, excludes overlapping signals).


----------



## sinner

Wednesdays, Whacky Wednesdays!


----------



## Timmy




----------



## skc

Timmy said:


>





Lol... still laughing as I type.


----------



## Timmy

skc said:


> Lol... still laughing as I type.




 Each time I watch it I laugh more ...


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI!!!!!!!!!!!!

:1zhelp:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> HSI!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> :1zhelp:




Big reversal day. I thought ti would happen post lunch for the SPI but it happened from the first minute...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Honkers loved the China rate cute.................... For about 5 min! LOL


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy I fat fingered into that HSI open full size short!! 
Lucky it stayed nutz and I was able to get it all back. Nearly set a new record for daily stop out..... 20 sec!


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Ahahahahah, trading - serious business.

I wonder if he did that as a dare - it all seemed too perfectly set up.


----------



## Trembling Hand

So how much time does 100 bil buy you? a few days? a week? 2 weeks? 

Anyone wanna place a bet?


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> So how much time does 100 bil buy you? a few days? a week? 2 weeks?
> 
> Anyone wanna place a bet?




It buys many, many roasted headless chooks.


----------



## Joules MM1

Timmy said:


> It buys many, many roasted headless chooks.




and a really big canon to fire them out of...... 

...take that tassie


----------



## Trembling Hand

very sus price action on the Seng coming into DAX open.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> very sus price action on the Seng coming into DAX open.




spanish flu?

gold got a spurt-on at 4pm too


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Decent size on the SPI for this time of night, gotta be some overseas fund or something?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> So how much time does 100 bil buy you? a few days? a week? 2 weeks?
> 
> Anyone wanna place a bet?




Bahahahaha. Try half a day.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Bahahahaha. Try half a day.




It was pretty much from the opening bell... How about the Spanish market went for a 7% reversal day.

ASX punters can thank the Queen for saving them from buying any spike yesterday.

The bailout is a bit like a person obtaining a credit card so he can fix his leaking roof. It adds to the Spanish national debt FFS...


----------



## Joules MM1

Fari Hamzei notes

tweet 25 mins ago



> Fari Hamzei ‏@HamzeiAnalytics
> 
> they smashed the JUN $VIX #PutCallRatio -- was 0.68 now 0.16


----------



## Trembling Hand

One-way street since 12:30 today.


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> One-way street since 12:30 today.




Europe's in soon. Once someone there is reported to have farted or something the volatility should start.


----------



## sinner

No intraday for me this week, busy with a few other things.

All I am hearing on the wire recently is *Sovereigns*! Out in force playing both sides of the fx, but a lot of USD selling from the 'producers', ME, Germany, Korea, China. Overall though, things are about the same, with liquidity providers still heavy net longs in the JPY and CHF, lightly short on the risk basket, and mostly neutral with a hint of shorts on the USD.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gold getting all funky here...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just went long AUD. I never trade breakouts. Watch this tank!!


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Just went long AUD. I never trade breakouts. Watch this tank!!




9955 was the break, what'd you get?


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> 9955 was the break, what'd you get?




I think the price read "never gunna work"

99575 on the pull back after 1:20


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> I think the price read "never gunna work"
> 
> 99575 on the pull back after 1:20




Not much risk in there imho, I would be in a similar trade right now, albeit at small size.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Not much risk in there imho, I would be in a similar trade right now, albeit at small size.




Nah its not a prop trade. just a tiny punt on the side.


----------



## nomore4s

Trembling Hand said:


> Just went long AUD. I never trade breakouts. Watch this tank!!




Forex

You bored?


----------



## Trembling Hand

nomore4s said:


> Forex
> 
> You bored?




Yep..... no vol on the HSI.

Stopped BE.... good old Breakout trades. works every time!


----------



## Timmy

Fellow Banterers - 

From OANDA:



> Dear  ,
> 
> Due to the extreme volatility some market analysts foresee could result in the coming days, OANDA fxTrade will not accept any trading activity from 6:00 AM EST until approximately 3:00 PM EST, on Sunday, June 17, 2012. OANDA believes the convergence of a major market event during off-market hours represents a potential trading risk and has taken this rare step to protect traders from excessive rate fluctuations.




Their website:
*Reasons behind our Sunday trading halt*
http://www.oanda.com/corp/oandainsights/2012/jun/14/reasons-behind-our-sunday-trading-halt-55514120/

Also this article:
*Oanda said halting forex trade during Greek vote*
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oanda-said-halting-forex-trade-during-greek-vote-2012-06-14


----------



## Trembling Hand

Wondering now if the Greek thing will be a non event. Even undiscovered tribes in the Amazon have sold out, gone to cash and waiting for the carnage.


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Wondering now if the Greek thing will be a non event. Even undiscovered tribes in the Amazon have sold out, gone to cash and waiting for the carnage.
> 
> 
> View attachment 47434




Think you are right.

& Latest polls are showing Ouzo well in front.


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Wondering now if the Greek thing will be a non event.




But ... just in case ... this a few hours ago from Reuters:



> Exclusive: *Central banks ready to combat Greek market storm*
> (Reuters) - Central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the outcome of Greek elections on Sunday causes tumultuous trading, G20 officials told Reuters.
> 
> A senior U.S. official cautioned that the Greek election will not provide "the definitive signal on what happens next" in the euro zone debt crisis.
> 
> *But if severe market strains emerge after an unusual confluence of three elections this weekend - there are important polls in Egypt and France as well - central bankers are on standby to ensure enough cash is flowing through the financial system.*



http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/14/us-eurozone-centralbanks-idUSBRE85D1FW20120614


----------



## Timmy

ps. More events coming up, including:



> G20 summit of world leaders, who will gather in Los Cabos, Mexico, on Monday and Tuesday,



http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/14/us-eurozone-centralbanks-idUSBRE85D1FW20120614

And FOMC June 19 & 20


----------



## Trembling Hand

Funny games going on the Seng open. Either we are in for a big Squeeze today or the Boyz are opening it up before the smack down. Tending to thing we are in for a squeeze.


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Tending to thing we are in for a squeeze.




ES certainly squeezing ATM, nice call TH


----------



## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> ES certainly squeezing ATM, nice call TH




Forget the ES have a look at the Hang Seng!! F me!


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Forget the ES have a look at the Hang Seng!! F me!




Dude, every time I look at the Hang Seng I end up hiding under the desk.
I'll leave it to you Ninjas.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> Dude, every time I look at the Hang Seng I end up hiding under the desk.
> I'll leave it to you Ninjas.




Could be an arvo of Ninja massacre too. The HSI has gone straight up since open, closing for lunch 1.6 % up. If Euro land open doesn't play out in its favour...... :hammer:

Then again if it does get going this thing will squeeze to the moon. 

Stay tuned!


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Could be an arvo of Ninja massacre too. The HSI has gone straight up since open, closing for lunch 1.6 % up. If Euro land open doesn't play out in its favour...... :hammer:
> 
> Then again if it does get going this thing will squeeze to the moon.
> 
> Stay tuned!




to slow squeez or not.....slow is going to get a better result, allows weaks to add to what they think is a higher sell opportunity.....then once that instant reactive crowd are seated in the cheap seats......whooshka......it's a  big play

(insert icon of nasty person with a time bomb)


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> Could be an arvo of Ninja massacre too. The HSI has gone straight up since open, closing for lunch 1.6 % up. If Euro land open doesn't play out in its favour...... :hammer:
> 
> Then again if it does get going this thing will squeeze to the moon.
> 
> Stay tuned!




Yeah, on a bit of a wild ride this arvo isn't it?  I would have faded that jump at 11.45, but my system doesn't enter that near the close...

TH, curious to get your insight into stops on HSI.  I'm currently getting filled 5-10 ticks the wrong side of my stops.  Is this normal, or are my stops being triggered when there is a lot of momentum in the market??

I'm thinking of changing my stops to stop-limits, the limit within 5 ticks of the stop, and then maybe add a second stop somewhere beyond that, just in case the market goes flying past my stop-limit.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Punta said:


> TH, curious to get your insight into stops on HSI.  I'm currently getting filled 5-10 ticks the wrong side of my stops.  Is this normal, or are my stops being triggered when there is a lot of momentum in the market??
> 
> I'm thinking of changing my stops to stop-limits, the limit within 5 ticks of the stop, and then maybe add a second stop somewhere beyond that, just in case the market goes flying past my stop-limit.




Nah that doesn't seem right. What is your broker? there has been a few sweeps last few days but you would be unlucky to be involved in all of them.

But then again I don't have any stop orders so.......


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah that doesn't seem right. What is your broker? there has been a few sweeps last few days but you would be unlucky to be involved in all of them.
> 
> But then again I don't have any stop orders so.......




Okay, good to know.  It was going to be hard to make money if every time my system loses, it gets hammered for an extra half dozen ticks.

I'm with IB.  It's a new trading system for me, so still getting the feel of the HSI.  Trying to work out whether I'm better off going with market orders for entries and stops, or whether I would be best off having a live BID/OFFER feed, and put in limit orders at the appropriate BID/OFFER when the system triggers.

Shouldn't make much difference, but the 5+ tick slide on stops was freaking me out...


----------



## Punta

Oop, I was short this current mini-rally.  Just got stopped out, and actually gained one tick slippage.  Okay, happy trader.

Back in short again now.


----------



## Punta

The massive slippage I was getting was paper trading (I sometimes bounce between the two, so loose track).

Real dollars seem to be a lot less slippery, which makes me happy...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Punta said:


> Oop, I was short this current mini-rally.  Just got stopped out, and actually gained one tick slippage.  Okay, happy trader.
> 
> Back in short again now.




LOL I hope that was on the sim account?


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL I hope that was on the sim account?




Nah mate, that was for real moolah.  Made cash though - system exited with 30 pt profit at 19065, just before prices jumped up again.  

Luckily that the latest price spike was after my cutoff time, otherwise I'd have been short this rally too...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Could be an arvo of Ninja massacre too. The HSI has gone straight up since open, closing for lunch 1.6 % up. If Euro land open doesn't play out in its favour...... :hammer:
> 
> Then again if it does get going this thing will squeeze to the moon.
> 
> Stay tuned!




Well I think we landed on the moon!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Fade-arama today you would think?


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Fade-arama today you would think?




I took a small fade just then on the Aussie after seeing how poorly she reacted to breaking intraday 1.0125...not really game to sit around and see what happens so took my few pips and ran.

Looks like liquidity sentiment is starting to turn around, retail is trying to catch tops and the banks are moving in longs.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Looks like liquidity sentiment is starting to turn around, retail is trying to catch tops and the banks are moving in longs.




Highs are in. Euro looking particularly disappointing for the longs.

Bring on next problem du Jour.... Spain, Italy [insert 10 other things].


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Highs are in. Euro looking particularly disappointing for the longs.
> 
> Bring on next problem du Jour.... Spain, Italy [insert 10 other things].




For the session? Day? Week? Seems I picked the intraday highs on that short, but as said I only took a few. Would be more comfortable longs here, trying to catch a few and let the rest run.

Personally, I don't think EURUSD is the correct instrument to trade bearish Eurozone and as a result, never do that anymore (since 2010). EuroStoxx 50 is a much better candidate IMHO.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> For the session? Day? Week? Seems I picked the intraday highs on that short, but as said I only took a few. Would be more comfortable longs here, trying to catch a few and let the rest run.
> 
> Personally, I don't think EURUSD is the correct instrument to trade bearish Eurozone and as a result, never do that anymore (since 2010). EuroStoxx 50 is a much better candidate IMHO.




Large Monday rallies are normally deadly for the longs - for the  week anyway. I don't really trade the Euro, or FX for that matter either but I do keep a close eye on FX.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Large Monday rallies are normally deadly for the longs - for the  week anyway. I don't really trade the Euro, or FX for that matter either but I do keep a close eye on FX.




Thanks for clarifying. A down week here would make the long term support at 0.96 look under threat, I'd honestly be surprised to see us challenge it again without another run at the weekly highs.

For some reason (perhaps oxygen not making it to the brain), I'm still viewing like this


sinner said:


> Turning quite neutral here personally. If I had to take odds on the next 6 months I'd be betting long, at least in the DAX and SPX.






(perf since post)

Pretty good performance considering the impending financial apocalypse...


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Highs are in. Euro looking particularly disappointing for the longs.
> 
> Bring on next problem du Jour.... Spain, Italy [insert 10 other things].




New high in the SPI...

May be the world is saved... we just don't know it yet.


----------



## Joules MM1

skc said:


> May be the world is saved... we just don't know it yet.




tops

utthedoor:


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> New high in the SPI...
> 
> May be the world is saved... we just don't know it yet.




yeah it could grind up until tomorrow morning. That still wouldn't make me bullish for this week. In fact I would probably get bullish if we retraced just* a bit* tomorrow into Wed. Then _maybe _ fade the faders.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Would be more comfortable longs here, trying to catch a few and let the rest run.




Mission accomplished. Back around London. Bid 10 lots 1.0095, just unloaded 5, holding the other 5, stops 1.009 now.


----------



## tech/a

Short FTSE 

Is fun

Closed 63 ticks

Off to dinner.


----------



## CanOz

HSI - :sleeping:

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Anyone here trade the K200 on NT through IB?

How do you load the symbol on the instrument manager? TH, perhaps you know?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Like the pic plus put K200 at the IB line in the symbol map.


----------



## CanOz

ahh, many thanks TH!!



CanOz


----------



## sinner

AUDUSD 1.018 looking pretty important right now,


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bloody hell that China PMI release is a reliable disappointment!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody hell that China PMI release is a reliable disappointment!




mmm, nice little downdraft there...


----------



## CanOz

3 drives to a low right on schedule too!

I wonder if this will just retest the second break or the market has really put in the LOD....

Lots of bergs on the bid..

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

lots of euro news plus the Euro markets reaction from last night should make the arvo HSI session a good one. low in for morning session. 

I have money on it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> low in for morning session.
> 
> I have money on it.




LOL. Well that was a waste of money.


----------



## CanOz

Yikes, i thought the low was in too, managed to get short again with a small loss. LOD 315 now ya reckon?

CanOz


----------



## Boggo

sinner said:


> AUDUSD 1.018 looking pretty important right now,




May have found a bottom at around 1.015 ?


----------



## sinner

Boggo said:


> May have found a bottom at around 1.015 ?




Yeah I got taken out on trails at 16.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy-O! Kospi new lows, China new lows, SPI two ticks off, Taiwan new low. Ugly old day.

What gives with the Nikkei? Going up since open


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> What gives with the Nikkei? Going up since open




BoJ Ishida:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/...ns-economy-has-started-to-pick-up-moderately/


> BOJ will continue to ease in order to achieve 1% inflation
> Overseas growth weaker but domestic side somewhat stronger since April forecast
> Economy likely to move in line with BOJ forecast unless Europe crippled
> Damage to Japan would be huge if US/Europe destabilized




JPY weakened on the news, good short term support for exporters. Oil prices which have been high even in JPY are now back near the lower end of the 3Y range, probably providing a little relief.


----------



## CanOz

Great day for DOM practice! After weeks of practice I'm starting to see the order pulling/stacking and icebergs much easier now. Still a long ways off being able to trade this effectively but the HSI no longer looks like stupid mess.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Far out, if i ever wondered how the big boys behaved i know now! Getting smacked around like a red headed step child!:1zhelp:

Bastards!

bugger, German PMI ... Doh!


> Germany Jun Manuf PMI 44.7 vs 45.2 prior  (20.33)
> This figure is geneally regarded as below expectations
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz1yPXVRyzt




CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Spanish Bond sale results due in soon...as if the DAX needs anything to perk it up!!! This is the most active day i've seen in a while...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

I haven't got the details yet but the bond auction went well, selling more debt than planned and the yield has come down to 6.2% ish...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Here are the auction results....



> Spain Bond Auction Results  (24.27)
> Sells EUR700 mln 3.40% Apr 2014 bonds; avg yield 4.706% vs 2.069% prior; BTC 3.97X vs 2.81X prior
> Sells EUR918 mln 4.00% Jul 2015 bonds; avg yield 5.547% vs 4.876% prior; BTC 3.18X vs 3.01X prior
> Sells EUR602 mln 5.50% Jul 2017 bonds; avg yield 6.072% vs 4.960% prior; BTC 3.44X vs 3.14X prior
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz1yPtVR98I




Talking to myself here it seems...

CanOz


----------



## StumpyPhantom

CanOz said:


> Here are the auction results....
> 
> 
> 
> Talking to myself here it seems...
> 
> CanOz




Take it as a compliment, CanOz.  We're listening to the guru here, so no need for response.  And unlike some of the argumentative, provocative types on the other threads, no need to give lip back either...

I just need to know from you when to break the piggy bank and buy all the put options because the market's going to tank 30% or more...


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Here are the auction results....
> 
> 
> 
> Talking to myself here it seems...
> 
> CanOz




DAX flat

All ho hum.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> DAX flat
> 
> All ho hum.




Its lunchtime, usually drifts lower or stays flat.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

StumpyPhantom said:


> Take it as a compliment, CanOz.  We're listening to the guru here, so no need for response.  And unlike some of the argumentative, provocative types on the other threads, no need to give lip back either...
> 
> I just need to know from you when to break the piggy bank and buy all the put options because the market's going to tank 30% or more...




LOL, i wish i knew...you'd reckon there would be another leg down, but don't get too bearish...lots of free money going around...

CanOz
PS...TH is the GURU...at least on the DOM


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kospi is flirting with the magical 3% level!!

Straight down today.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Kospi is flirting with the magical 3% level!!
> 
> Straight down today.




Just interested in how your Prop trading is going.
You enjoying it still?


----------



## CanOz

I'm now focusing on the Kospi as its so much thicker and easier to read than the HSI. Positions take longer to build and then tend to pop, like the ES.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I'm now focusing on the Kospi....Positions take longer to build and then tend to pop, like the ES.
> 
> CanOz




any particular phase of play, Can ?


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> any particular phase of play, Can ?




I was looking for the little rally to continue and thought there was a position being built around 246.25-30. This didn't hold so i exited and got short immediately.....the next area of consolidation confirmed the short and i held on as the buying was absorbed by 4 or five big bergs...I took profit when a big berg appeared at the measured move on the bid.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Just interested in how your Prop trading is going.
> You enjoying it still?




LOL I'm enjoying the challenge. Not so sure I can say the risk managers are enjoying my work


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I was looking for the little rally to continue and though there was a position being built around 246.25-30. This didn't hold so i exited and got short immediately.....the next area of consolidation confirmed the short and i held on as the buying was absorbed by 4 or five big bergs...I took profit when a big berg appeared at the measured move on the bid.
> 
> CanOz




nice read

......you ever film your ideas ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I was looking for




CanOz you havn't got enough indicators on your chart.  :


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> nice read
> 
> ......you ever film your ideas ?





No, i don't have the camcorder on my laptop at the moment. Once i get my new trading PC i will have the room to do it. Its a great idea though and i see many doing it.

It was only this week when the :dimbulb: went on finally. I could start seeing the auction process properly. I'm only using the chart for ideas now.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> CanOz you havn't got enough indicators on your chart.  :




Yeah, its allot barer than it was 9 months ago! I've actually got the buy/sell volume on the chart but i only look at what happened at the highs or lows to see how strong the buying/or selling was...No oscillator now either.

I have the DOM, and the Reconstructed Tape on my other screen.

Simple stuff now...

CanOz


----------



## avion

I recommend BB Flashback. It's free, records multiple monitors setup and can record external sound, ie swearing,  etc...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> No, i don't have the camcorder on my laptop at the moment.




when my camtasia suite went down with my other machine (we even tried the drive in a freezer to get the metal to expand...lol) i found this freebie....a tad clunky and no conversion.....easy as

http://www.thefreebiesblog.com/camtasia-studio-313-free/


----------



## CanOz

Thanks Avion, Joules...i have a free one now...just got to install again...

CanOz


----------



## Timmy

CanOz said:


> I was looking for the little rally to continue and thought there was a position being built around 246.25-30. This didn't hold so i exited and got short immediately.....the next area of consolidation confirmed the short and i held on as the buying was absorbed by 4 or five big bergs...I took profit when a big berg appeared at the measured move on the bid.
> 
> CanOz




Nicely done Can


----------



## CanOz

Timmy said:


> Nicely done Can




Carrying on with my training on thick markets...again i am getting beaten like a red headed orphan:twak: on the FESX!!!:grenade:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Carrying on with my training on thick markets...again i am getting beaten like a red headed orphan:twak: on the FESX!!!:grenade:




I don't see why you would trade that short term. The tick size and therefore move to get over the spread is 0.045 % And then you have far less increments to adjust target & stop.

Where the tick size on the Z or DAX is 0.008 %. 5 nearly 6 times smaller. Pushing 
	

		
			
		

		
	




	

		
			
		

		
	
 up hill short term trading that. IMO.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, sort of feels that way too, but was interested in seeing how the thicker markets move...thanks for the visual too by the way....really needed that !!!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

looks like the sell hooks are in on ftse and up weez go


----------



## CanOz

mmm, yeah your right...stick with the DAX...been a keen Daxer for 7 months...why change now...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> mmm, yeah your right...stick with the DAX...been a keen Daxer for 7 months...why change now...
> 
> CanOz




yes, whichever you read best/quickest ......also, no lift in call options pit last night with puts getting smashed and globex is likely to print +tive with spx cdf's showing 5 point lead-up....so +tive liquidity most markets and no set-up for news annocs......suspect a meek affair into US mid-day......most likely all the upside is in pre-cash


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> yes, whichever you read best/quickest ......also, no lift in call options pit last night with puts getting smashed and globex is likely to print +tive with spx cdf's showing 5 point lead-up....so +tive liquidity most markets and no set-up for news annocs......suspect a meek affair into US mid-day......most likely all the upside is in pre-cash





Seemed like lots of shorts getting burned on that last move...into the dinner drift now....

I should test it one day, sure we drift down on the dax every lunch time..

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I should test it one day, sure we drift down on the dax every lunch time..




das ist nicht sehr edge.....tzu klein !


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> das ist nicht sehr edge.....tzu klein !





LOL! i was short just then and bid thickened up and offer disappeared....UP!!!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> LOL! i was short just then and bid thickened up and offer disappeared....UP!!!
> 
> CanOz




i think i know the name of that song...."death by a thousand short sold cuts".....you can dowload it from your local long-sides butcher


----------



## CanOz

hmmm, some nice moves on the Asians this morning!!

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Bloody Kospi, mean revert or trend...make up your bloody mind!!!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Bloody Kospi, mean revert or trend...make up your bloody mind!!!
> 
> CanOz




You need to break the action down, intraday trends sometimes and mean reverts on the rest. Some valid breakdowns are volatility per time (e.g. Monday 9-10AM is quite different from Thursdays 11-12PM), volatility per absolute momentum (e.g. low vals follow through, high vals mean revert), or volatility per volume (follow when auction is unbalanced zone, fade when auction is balanced zone). Of course you can combine them all but they tend to show high correlation anyway. For the record I use volatility per momentum as well as per time (love them opens), and tend to follow rather than fade intraday.

This is only an example, but if you read this
http://trading-naked.com/library/Chap3.pdf
there is a good 'thought experiment' on breaking an intraday strategy down by time (near the end) which could give you a good idea of what I mean.

Or take a look at the (daily) returns of 'follow through' strategies using this volatility per momentum, broken down per percentile
http://cssanalytics.wordpress.com/2010/06/29/trend-strength-index-tsi-results-summary/


----------



## Joules MM1

fitting dynamism into neat boxes .......that's a tough way to achieve the task......


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> fitting dynamism into neat boxes .......that's a tough way to achieve the task......




I'll post my scatter gram at the end of the day, one the positive side I've managed to get my losses much smaller, one or two ticks now...

CanOz

EDIT: the HSI has put in a nice rising trend with some nice waves while the Kospi has just broken its AM range...


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Bloody Kospi, mean revert or trend...make up your bloody mind!!!
> 
> CanOz




What just happened in Korea? Did Godzilla team up with "the Host" and attacked the stock exchange?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> What just happened in Korea? Did Godzilla team up with "the Host" and attacked the stock exchange?




Haha good one. They don't run away very well do they? 

Funny day though. SPI and Kospi goes down in a straight line. HSI & STW does the opposite.


----------



## Joules MM1

skc said:


> What just happened in Korea[/video]




the use of the no-trumpet sign is the best bit......


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> fitting dynamism into neat boxes .......that's a tough way to achieve the task......




I trade intraday discretionary, so the 'boxes', as you call them, are guidelines, not signals. I suffered from the same problem as CanOz described until I started to quantify the intraday charts by robust metrics and use them as my map. At the very minimum you can see if today is the same as the recent past or the pattern is changing. 

Only trying to help. Would love to hear how your suggestions on how CanOz can 'easily' achieve the task if my suggestion is so tough.


----------



## CanOz

Darn near impossible to get a runner to hang on...maybe this  one!!!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> I trade intraday discretionary, so the 'boxes', as you call them, are guidelines, not signals. I suffered from the same problem as CanOz described until I started to quantify the intraday charts by robust metrics and use them as my map. At the very minimum you can see if today is the same as the recent past or the pattern is changing.
> 
> Only trying to help. Would love to hear how your suggestions on how CanOz can 'easily' achieve the task if my suggestion is so tough.




sure.....boxing dynamism isnt intended as an insult.....it simply means you are literally boxing price to come into a method ....trading with dynamism means interpreting price as it unfurls .....the leg work prior to cash is still needed and can be instantly dismissed inline with the how the open runs and the guideline might be when pros are running for the time they are active......robust metrics clearly work for you, hence your post......any auction i've ever been to and ever traded i'd be like a pig stuck on a roast applying a robust metric to.....but if i can figure what is being done within the auction process and by whom, at what levels, for which target and during which period then that works fine for me.......

that's a snap-shot.....unless youve got a cupla days spare......

good luck with......your style


----------



## CanOz

For the record Sinner, i am using the DOM on the SIM and a clean chart for the time being. I have systems to trade when they switch back on. I appreciate everyone's comments. 

Although i can't figure the K200 out today, every time i go to buy a pullback its the start of a new downtrend...the DOM is not giving the heads up today like it was the other day and i'm too slow to adapt to it.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Interesting...today the accumulation is totally different than Friday. Today instead of using big bergs, they're using a heap of little ones and then a couple of big sweeps will pop things off...i think I've learned something today...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

hmmm, battle of the bergs at 241.65 and 241.70....the offer won...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

What a scrappy day for me

-but i learned something new today! I've not noticed until today, how the sweeps will help accumulate or distribute before a big move or imbalance occurs. 
-this is really fascinating, it all occurs right here, the DOM is the coalface...its just one big d**k swinging match and the price will tear off in the direction of the winner for a little while...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

LOL @ the DAX! Relief rally over!!! 

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

hsi and everything else



sssssslooooowwwww


----------



## CanOz

Perfect for today's exercise...scalping two ticks at a time all morning...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Perfect for today's exercise...scalping two ticks at a time all morning...
> 
> CanOz




Hopefully not 2 ticks on the HSI?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Hopefully not 2 ticks on the HSI?




LOL! can you imagine it!!

Kospi...

I really like this market for the DOM...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Scalping 1 tick now...two ticks was nearly impossible for a while there...

CanOz


----------



## avion

Entertainment time... has anyone seen Wall Street Warriors season 1,2 on youtube? Stumbled on it by chance. Nothing special but it does give you a bit of an insight at different characthers. Any other ideas?


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Entertainment time... has anyone seen Wall Street Warriors season 1,2 on youtube? Stumbled on it by chance. Nothing special but it does give you a bit of an insight at different characthers. Any other ideas?




If i had access to the tube, then i would try and catch some DOM vids...

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> If i had access to the tube, then i would try and catch some DOM vids...
> 
> CanOz




Circumventing the firewall isn't too hard these days, I assume you've considered it and decided against?


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Circumventing the firewall isn't too hard these days, I assume you've considered it and decided against?




Only on the tablet....to keep in touch with family back home...


----------



## Joules MM1

not a major buy signal with gold and spx selling at same time


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> not a major buy signal with gold and spx selling at same time




Looked like a messy old night when I came to bed with crude giving everything up. Certainly was volitile after the consumer data came out....I'm short USO, and long GLD for a week or so....GLD is a pain though!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Looked like a messy old night when I came to bed with crude giving everything up. Certainly was volitile after the consumer data came out....I'm short USO, and long GLD for a week or so....GLD is a pain though!
> 
> CanOz




 .......been short gold for a few hours.....but lots of games going on here.......hooks everywhere


----------



## Timmy

Belt-o-rama - couple mins ago:



> ***German Chancellor Merkel says Europe will not have shared liability for debt as long as she lives*** /


----------



## Joules MM1

and now for the buy rips........


----------



## Timmy

Joules MM1 said:


> and now for the buy rips........




Its a beautiful thing


----------



## Joules MM1

nice 300 stair step on hsi......one tiny attempt head fake at gap close quickly smacked on the head......whooshka


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, nice 3 pointer on the K200 as well...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> ...long GLD for a week or so....GLD is a pain though!




added to sells on gold.....watch for death rolls....looking for poss 1653's level for a pop

wotya seeing, Can ?

----edit, 1663's not 53's .....if we blow through that level then some momentum exits are in the making.....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> added to sells on gold.....watch for death rolls....looking for poss 1653's level for a pop
> 
> wotya seeing, Can ?
> 
> ----edit, 1663's not 53's .....if we blow through that level then some momentum exits are in the making.....




My ETF is a position trade, but i will bail if its wrong...<148.43 ish...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> My ETF is a position trade, but i will bail if its wrong...<148.43 ish...
> 
> CanOz




how dya like that for a pop ?


----------



## Joules MM1

lol ......those euro folk at the mic again ?


----------



## Joules MM1

bond, jammy bond



> George Cavaligos ‏@GCavaligos
> 
> is it just me or are we needing more and more "dealer concession" dips to attract treasury auction buyers these days?




George, bonds spesh with CME group mrstopstep


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Can hardly even tell the EU summit is coming up/on....


----------



## CanOz

Unbelievable!!

70 points in 20 minutes on the DAX.

Crude's getting hammered well ahead of the DAX.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

That selling was really intense...got the first part of the first move but then of course i had to try and fade every impulse that hit a 10 multiple R1 and the PP...:frown:

I think that's a missing arrow in my quiver now...recognizing huge selling pressure and figuring out where to join in...

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Yeah was pretty much one way action! So easy to get caught up in reading the order flow when that happens, what seems like "big" size just gets blown away and it keeps going, go up and blow through the highs now by midnight probably? haha.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah was pretty much one way action! So easy to get caught up in reading the order flow when that happens, what seems like "big" size just gets blown away and it keeps going, go up and blow through the highs now by midnight probably? haha.




Oh dear!!




points not dollars,


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah was pretty much one way action! So easy to get caught up in reading the order flow when that happens, what seems like "big" size just gets blown away and it keeps going, go up and blow through the highs now by midnight probably? haha.




Yeah exactly, its just got no stopping power at all...i need to review that a few times so i recall what it looks like...that's the great thing about most good platforms nowadays, the recording capability.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh dear!!
> 
> View attachment 47673
> 
> 
> points not dollars,




What the?! I would have said more than Oh dear! Was that from this push just now? Hopefully it's not as bad as it looks, with TT doing the 5 ticks = 1 tick for the ES P&L and honkers being 7ish bucks/tick? 

I've made the switch to CQG now, hooray! Cheaper too.


----------



## Joules MM1

slave to the grind then slave to the faaaaaaaaaaark wots thaaaaaaaaaaat 

a lotta work for nada today


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What the?! I would have said more than Oh dear! Was that from this push just now? Hopefully it's not as bad as it looks, with TT doing the 5 ticks = 1 tick for the ES P&L and honkers being 7ish bucks/tick?
> 
> I've made the switch to CQG now, hooray! Cheaper too.




Is CGQ cheaper than IB? 

TH, you've probably already made that back!

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Is CGQ cheaper than IB?
> 
> TH, you've probably already made that back!
> 
> CanOz




Nah not cheaper than IB, it's cheaper than TT(X_TRADER)....although, buying a small island, a large boat and your choice of however many girls is also cheaper than what TT costs, and to be honest it's really nothing special at all. CQG has more features, better charts and better DOM....and cheaper than TT. Win. 

Yeah wait for his next screenshot, it'll be the same except green


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> CQG has more features, better charts and better DOM....and cheaper than TT.




I really like my Jigsaw DOM now....


----------



## avion

TH, just a small bump in the road. Big bump for me, same mistake, denying the obvious... Grrr, when will i learn!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> I really like my Jigsaw DOM now....




Yeah heard about Jigsaw a bit, CQG has the main DOM feature that I want from that anyway(cumulative on the bid AND offer as well as the total at each price etc).


----------



## CanOz

Lots of news today...good grief!!



> NYTimes reporting that JPMorgan Chase 'London Whale' trading loss could reach as much as $9 bln  (36.77)
> Click Here for the NYTimes.com Article
> 
> Briefing Note: Initial estimates for loss were around $2 bln.  On 6/20 there were reports that JPM has sold off 65-70% of its position.  JPM reports earnings on July 13th before the open where it is expected the company will give more color on this.
> 
> JPM shares are trading lower by 5% in early pre-market trading.  (XLF)
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz1z55qjj2s




Hmm, we may have put in the low...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Lots of news today...good grief!!
> 
> 
> 
> Hmm, we may have put in the low...
> 
> CanOz




looks so ......prob one more salvo at news release......

nice screens there, Can


----------



## Punta

Here comes the dax bouncing back.  My algo is trying to fade it.  And failing...


----------



## Joules MM1

Punta said:


> Here comes the dax bouncing back.  My algo is trying to fade it.  And failing...




algos eating algos


----------



## CanOz

wow, that was some pop...i was mucking around a bit and had 20 contracts long. Tried to get out at the PP but it didn't show up on NT's account performance...All news related...Bloody Europeans..

CanOz


----------



## Punta

By the way, I just switched from IB's "flat rate" to their "cost plus" tiered.  It's cheaper.  Why would anyone go for the flat rate???


----------



## CanOz

TWS caught it...NT completely missed this set of executions...what a heap of junk this platform is....

I hope this doesn't happen in RT...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

This is just farcical:



> Recent uptick in futures coincides with headlines out of Europe, suggesting Germany would be willing to move sooner on shared debt; other headlines suggest a fiscal union would be a precondition
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz1z5Ym3rRy




Dax shoots up 60 points...

and then...20 minutes later...



> Reuters reporting German finance ministry spokesman says Schaeuble did not say Germany will move sooner than expected towards shared liability for debt
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz1z5Ym3rRy




Dax drops 60 points...

ROTFLMAO...bloody European knuckleheads...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Has Crude always led the DAX?

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Has Crude always led the DAX?
> 
> CanOz




I've found depending on the night that crude can lead a lot of things......but other nights mean not much at all, welcome to correlations


----------



## Joules MM1

done for the day already.....stuffed as sitting through that spx mallarcky......and the tour is coming soon.....be some late night reruns........lol


----------



## CanOz

I was surprised the HSI rolled today....I was expecting Monday

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> done for the day already.....stuffed as sitting through that spx mallarcky......and the tour is coming soon.....be some late night reruns........lol




and zoom again

gangbusters........nice one hsi......thankyou europe


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

$#$! me! this is nuts


----------



## CanOz

300 points...WTF? 

Its in the middle of night Europe...what caused that?

I loaded the July HSI chart 2 minutes before that broke...wasn't even watching the DOM... Have to watch the tape later and see if the order book thinned...

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr

???


----------



## sinner

What fun!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> 300 points...WTF?
> 
> Its in the middle of night Europe...what caused that?
> 
> I loaded the July HSI chart 2 minutes before that broke...wasn't even watching the DOM... Have to watch the tape later and see if the order book thinned...
> 
> CanOz




Europe leaders announce plans for single financial supervisor; euro rallies
06/28/2012 10:57:42 PM


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

> European leaders have agreed to use the continent's permanent bailout fund to recapitalize struggling banks, and agreed to the idea of a tighter union in the long term.






> The bank decision at overnight meetings in Brussels on Friday was aimed at helping Spain, which sought a (euro) 100 billion rescue to help its troubled banks and is facing rising borrowing costs.
> 
> EU President Herman Van Rompuy called it a "breakthrough that banks can be recapitalized directly."
> He said leaders of the 17-nation eurozone also agreed to a joint banking supervisory body.
> He said the leaders of the full 27-member European Union agreed to a general long-term plan for a tighter budgetary and political union.





Quite the reaction!


----------



## drsmith

S&P futures as well.


----------



## Joules MM1

the real ? is how much is this spike to be sold into.........buahahamuahaha......


----------



## CanOz

I think its time i find a more 'international' news vendor... Briefing.com think that only US news is newsworthy....They're all ...:sleeping:

Maybe I'll check out IBIS...about the same cost i think.

CanOz


----------



## skc

That was quick and crazy.

The world collude to help the Aussie market dress up for the EOFY...

Took out a few of my standing sell orders and had to scramble to close my paired shorts.

Lucky I wasn't out for a Friday lunch...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

skc said:


> Lucky I wasn't out for a Friday lunch...




Haha same here, was JUST about to get up to go eat something then all hell breaks loose, our bonds dropped pretty much 15 ticks straight down, with an average range of about 4 ticks a day it was quite a sell off. Nabbed some SPI so was lucky. 

Be interesting to see what happens from now on...


----------



## Punta

I get no joy from fading the HSI on a up sweep....


----------



## Trembling Hand

My yesterdays F up all fixed plus a little bit.


----------



## Trembling Hand

WTF?  

You hack my account CanOz?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> WTF?
> 
> You hack my account CanOz?




ROTFLMAO

oops.....sorry mate...

Hit the wrong reply button LOL!!!

Fat fingers today!!

CanOz


----------



## skc

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha same here, was JUST about to get up to go eat something then all hell breaks loose, our bonds dropped pretty much 15 ticks straight down, with an average range of about 4 ticks a day it was quite a sell off. Nabbed some SPI so was lucky.
> 
> Be interesting to see what happens from now on...




Shorting from Europe's open would be the right play if history was a guide...


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> I think its time i find a more 'international' news vendor... Briefing.com think that only US news is newsworthy....They're all ...:sleeping:
> 
> Maybe I'll check out IBIS...about the same cost i think.
> 
> CanOz




Try MNI, I like them.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I think its time i find a more 'international' news vendor... Briefing.com think that only US news is newsworthy....They're all ...:sleeping:
> 
> Maybe I'll check out IBIS...about the same cost i think.
> 
> CanOz




http://www.tradethenews.com/  $170 a month.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> http://www.tradethenews.com/  $170 a month.




Thanks for the ideas guys...my Briefing.com subby runs out on Sept 01...as does my promise to my wife to be profitable in 12 months

IBIS looks ok and you can customize it...should be able to configure for what i need for 20-50 per month I'd reckon. Its an add-on to TWS too, so I'm keeping thing together.

Caught a nice pop off that first consolidation after the big move...makes me feel like i wasn't quite so 'left out'...lol!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

amazing.. i follow 19 talking heads on twitter....not a single murmer.....in fact dead space.....

here, take this wheel, well, youre asleep already so why not.....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> amazing.. i follow 19 talking heads on twitter....not a single murmer.....in fact dead space.....
> 
> here, take this wheel, well, youre asleep already so why not.....




Surely there is a half decent chat <something> that can be used ie yahoo, google etc instead of a forum thread?? A few of us did it a few years ago on here through Yahoo. Any takers?


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Surely there is a half decent chat <something> that can be used ie yahoo, google etc instead of a forum thread?? A few of us did it a few years ago on here through Yahoo. Any takers?





To be honest i sort of like this forum as i post when i have time...

Maybe Joe could start up a trading room!

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> To be honest i sort of like this forum as i post when i have time...
> 
> Maybe Joe could start up a trading room!
> 
> CanOz





There's already a chat function here on ASF - what about that?

Edit - there used to be one, just went looking, can't find it??


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> There's already a chat function here on ASF - what about that?
> 
> Edit - there used to be one, just went looking, can't find it??




I went with the last software update, Joe has mentioned he will look into another app for it...

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

I'm up for a chat room if others are, can just go make one? Plenty of free "Create a chat room" sites around.


----------



## Joe Blow

Uncle Festivus said:


> There's already a chat function here on ASF - what about that?
> 
> Edit - there used to be one, just went looking, can't find it??






ThingyMajiggy said:


> I'm up for a chat room if others are, can just go make one? Plenty of free "Create a chat room" sites around.




Hi guys, I'll be trialling a new live chat system over the weekend and will be interested in your feedback. It will be a Facebook style footer chat with both public chat rooms and private chat with those who are on your ASF friends list.


----------



## CanOz

Joe Blow said:


> Hi guys, I'll be trialling a new live chat system over the weekend and will be interested in your feedback. It will be a Facebook style footer chat with both public chat rooms and private chat with those who are on your ASF friends list.




I hope that its linked to any banned sites...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Joe Blow said:


> Hi guys, I'll be trialling a new live chat system over the weekend and will be interested in your feedback. It will be a Facebook style footer chat with both public chat rooms and private chat with those who are on your ASF friends list.




+1

 :kiffer:  ld: something for everyone including and not limited to some light hearted :bs:


----------



## Joules MM1

hsi moves back into launch mode 

spx 1346 cfd  with cash closed at 1,329.04


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> spx 1346 cfd  with cash closed at 1,329.04





Why the spread??


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Why the spread??




i dont  care....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> i dont  care....





Wow, the bucket shop actually takes a hit once in while? Is that because so many people had to cover their shorts?

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Man I really love throwing everything I've made down the drain PLUS some in the last half hour of the day in spectacular fashion by doing the stupidest thing ever. Really ends my week well! 

Wooossaaahhh *rubs earlobes*


----------



## Joe Blow

Joe Blow said:


> Hi guys, I'll be trialling a new live chat system over the weekend and will be interested in your feedback. It will be a Facebook style footer chat with both public chat rooms and private chat with those who are on your ASF friends list.




I have just activated this. Look for the little chat bar at the bottom of your screen off to the right. Feel free to go in and have a look around.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Man I really love throwing everything I've made down the drain PLUS some in the last half hour of the day in spectacular fashion by doing the stupidest thing ever. Really ends my week well!
> 
> Wooossaaahhh *rubs earlobes*




That last push higher on the Kospi was difficult too, i felt like buying it but yet couldnt resist fading the highs...gave some back...

Hope you make a little back before you knock off Sam...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Down goes the DAX...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Wow, the bucket shop actually takes a hit once in while? Is that because so many people had to cover their shorts?
> 
> CanOz




it's one of the upsides of reading what  "make a market" actually means for those who "make a market" and when you can use.......nice

one of the few advantages of not being a dma

of course the reverse is true........in this instance, know thy platform


----------



## Trembling Hand

FTSE look poorly.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> FTSE look poorly.




It's not that bad!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> It's not that bad!




Sure its green but its been going down since cash opened. Broke the low just after I made that comment. Though still up 1.25% thats still 1% off 3 hours ago.


----------



## CanOz

Whooosh...Crude's got a rocket up its butt...Shorts are hitting the exits!!!:run:


----------



## CanOz

DAX lagged Crude on this move...lunchtime in Frankfurt...

what a day, the FESX is up 4%, the US markets are up but still lagging into the open....


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> DAX lagged Crude on this move...lunchtime in Frankfurt...
> 
> what a day, the FESX is up 4%, the US markets are up but still lagging into the open....




nice looking set-up there, Can

twatter of the day award:



> Fari Hamzei ‏@HamzeiAnalytics
> 
> RT @innovinance: And don't forget: #Stocks will top out exactly when zerohedge reverses and goes long. LOL $ES_F // precisely sire




:


----------



## notting

Let me get this straight.  
Euroland moves toward less restrained unified ECB lending direct to banks which will be funded by hmmmm  Eurobonds one day - printing. 
Euro rallies against the US$.  
That makes sense.:screwy:
Oh yeah, it means there will not be bankrupt banks all over the E-shop, because they will just be able to be more indebted.
It's a bit like EU$ *jumping* for joy over a cliff.  Yippee!


----------



## Joules MM1

Can, you giving this book a rap.....you like it?


----------



## Joules MM1

.ah, there we go

http://nysetrader.net/wp-content/uploads/One_good_trade.pdf


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> Can, you giving this book a rap.....you like it?





That's the one...great book....you need to think a bit to apply it to futs but its all the same as far as dist and accum go. Also, i like their discipline and approach to trading in general, certainly something for me aspire to.

TH, if you have time i would love to hear your  on this book too.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Good morning all...So far today on the K200 I've tried to grab a trade at the gap close, backed off when the bid wouldn't hold. It seems every little pullback in this diminishing downtrend is sold with lots of bergs...are their still shorts to unwind from the other days big rally? Seems like it so far....

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## 5oclock

CanOz said:


> That's the one...great book....you need to think a bit to apply it to futs but its all the same as far as dist and accum go. Also, i like their discipline and approach to trading in general, certainly something for me aspire to.
> 
> TH, if you have time i would love to hear your  on this book too.
> 
> CanOz




Me too TREMBLING, would like your take on the book when time allows.


----------



## CanOz

> June ISM Index 49.7 vs 52.2 Briefing.com consensus; May 53.5
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz1zTQmZ1II




We'll see if it can shake that off....got to be a good sign if it can...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Some good news for Kospi traders...



> eSignal is proud to now support KOSPI Futures data.




may even get me back one day...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> TH, if you have time i would love to hear your  on this book too.




Haven't read it. Haven't read a trading book in years.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, its difficult for me to maintain an attention span in this action:sleeping:. Got a nice pop after a lethargic accumulation...I guess the whole week's gonna be like this...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee CanOz is that you with the world wide Bot? Its as jumpy and botchy as a  can opener!! 

Mini sweeps in every instrument simultaneously...... F'in messy!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee CanOz is that you with the world wide Bot? Its as jumpy and botchy as a  can opener!!
> 
> Mini sweeps in every instrument simultaneously...... F'in messy!!




Yeah...caught me! Taking advantage of noobie fut traders....

Everything is thin, thats saying something on the DAX.

I hope your not actually trading this mess are you?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Everything is thin, thats saying something on the DAX.




Yeah I think the jumpy-ness comes from some rocket scientist not adjusting their bots to the thin market. The assumption is they are always making money but I bet they lose with the same stats as every other type of trader. 



CanOz said:


> I hope your not actually trading this mess are you?




Sh!te yeah I am, just another day........... different to yesterdays


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> The assumption is they are always making money but I bet they lose with the same stats as every other type of trader.




It wasn't long ago where i read something exactly to that point. The article was saying that there are bots that take advantage of the other bots if they are not performing well in the market conditions...

I'm watching oil leading the DAX around like a puppy on a leash...

Its not every move but its got to 50% of the breaks..

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Well the rally is over...i repeat  :bekloppt:  "The Rally is Over"...i just heard this chick on the Bloomy say so  :karaoke:...

CanOz


----------



## notting

Good news is bad news cause no printing.
Bad news is good news because maybe printing.
We just don't know whats good and bad anymore.
It's a world without trend. 
The rally must end?


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Well the rally is over...i repeat  :bekloppt:  "The Rally is Over"...i just heard this chick on the Bloomy say so  :karaoke:...
> 
> CanOz




I like Bloomy chicks... 

They all look the same even though they are different. 

They look intelligent yet dumb at the same time.

They talk informatively yet convey nothing.

They are full of contradictions...

http://www.businessinsider.com/women-of-bloomberg?op=1


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> I like Bloomy chicks...
> 
> They all look the same even though they are different.
> 
> They look intelligent yet dumb at the same time.
> 
> They talk informatively yet convey nothing.
> 
> They are full of contradictions...
> 
> http://www.businessinsider.com/women-of-bloomberg?op=1




LOL! Now that's talent!!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> It wasn't long ago where i read something exactly to that point. The article was saying that there are bots that take advantage of the other bots if they are not performing well in the market conditions...





exactly ......a bot might be faster but why assume it's better?.....doesnt it just mean they lose faster too?

......and the pom100 looks like its a richter tremble for the last cupla hours.......from asimov's I Robot iv ......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Hey TH you've made the big time - Temper Trap have a song about you - 

http://wah.fm/upqx4c

Will we get the big drop Friday night.......


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hey TH you've made the big time - Temper Trap have a song about you -
> 
> http://wah.fm/upqx4c
> 
> Will we get the big drop Friday night.......



Hahah! love it. Good vid too. Broken down busted ar$e gym, reminds me of a few real life stories in the "Talent Code"

http://www.thetempertrap.com/videos/v/trembling-hands


----------



## CanOz

TH, your bloody HSI is stinking up the K200....it just wouldn't get on with it!!!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> TH, your bloody HSI is stinking up the K200....it just wouldn't get on with it!!!
> 
> CanOz




You didn't enjoy the ride?


----------



## CanOz

> Australia May Trade Balance (in AUD) -285 mln vs -26 mln in Apr  (22.18)
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz1zj46rUwk





Good grief, y'all love them imports!!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Good grief, y'all love them imports!!
> 
> CanOz






> Imports advanced 3 percent to a record A$27.1 billion on a 12 percent rise in industrial transport equipment and a 16 percent increase in fuels and *lubricants*,




We love our lube!! :blaah:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> We love our lube!! :blaah:




We'll lets bloody hope that oodles of lube is destined to free that great Aussie mining boom from the grips of that bloody labor party!!

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> We'll lets bloody hope that oodles of lube is destined to free that great Aussie mining boom from the grips of that bloody labor party!!
> 
> CanOz




About due for some Chinese lube....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Spoke too soon.....

 SHANGHAI””China's central bank has flooded the local money market  with cash in recent days, stoking expectations that it may be signaling a  broader monetary easing, just as it did two months ago. 


  Since  last week, the People's Bank of China has ramped up its use of  reverse-repurchase operations, an increasingly important tool for  pumping short-term liquidity into the banking system. It did something  similar in May, shortly before it cut banks' reserve requirements,  freeing up huge amounts of cash that banks could lend out to boost the  slowing economy.


----------



## CanOz

Crude is one hell of a run over the last 90 minutes...as is the DAX,

Could be a bullish July 5th!

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

BOE pops the market with another $50B in QE & times ann with China rate reduction - some nice woodies going around....grab some shorts there....


----------



## notting

What was that oil rally all about?
Euro strength?
finished for the moment, I hope.
I'm neither short nor long it but hated it just the same.
It's the killer.


----------



## CanOz

The Kospi is really flirting with the idea of making a low at 246.00...been buying these little lows and getting out with a few ticks...

Still a slowish day...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> ..... with a few ticks...
> 
> Still a slowish day...




hard to get a speeding ticket today......until.....gasp....nfp......


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> *Still a slowish day...*
> 
> CanOz




Understatement of the year. I am so bored I actually watched Joules' youtube clip.



Joules MM1 said:


> hard to get a speeding ticket today......until.....gasp....nfp......




Lol. Reminded me of this old lady who held a hairdryer to look like a radar gun on her street to stop the hoons.


----------



## Trembling Hand

what gives with the Kospi? One way street today.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> what gives with the Kospi? One way street today.




One eye focus on 245.00 and that prior low from a day or two ago...May test it again too...

Not sure what the skinny is on it...i've had the Bloomy off all morning.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Boooyaaahhhhh! 243.30 was a big number today and once it broke...look out below...

Bit of a range extension under way...

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Hey guys!

So I applied for a quant job recently and have been going through the interview process. During that period I abstained from most trading activities, I didn't want anything to influence my trading or the interview either way.

Today I found out I didn't get the job! Apparently I was impressive in the first two interviews but didn't manage to carry that through into the final interview. Mostly I feel if I had been a little less tired on the day of the final interview and had a better grounding in stats I would have been more confident/impressive.

So I'll be jumping back in the saddle next week. Hope everyone's been enjoying the rally!


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Hope everyone's been enjoying the rally!




we *were*....

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> we *were*....
> 
> CanOz




Oh, you think it's over already? I think this is only a very short pullback in the Qs and SPY.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Hey guys!
> 
> So I applied for a quant job recently and have been going through the interview process. During that period I abstained from most trading activities, I didn't want anything to influence my trading or the interview either way.
> 
> Today I found out I didn't get the job! Apparently I was impressive in the first two interviews but didn't manage to carry that through into the final interview. Mostly I feel if I had been a little less tired on the day of the final interview and had a better grounding in stats I would have been more confident/impressive.
> 
> So I'll be jumping back in the saddle next week. Hope everyone's been enjoying the rally!




Stuff em'

Get yourself along to a prop shop and have a trading ball. Not another crap job.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Oh, you think it's over already? I think this is only a very short pullback in the Qs and SPY.




Could be, we're at the bottom of that wedge on the SPX. I got a ton a sell signals on my Flipper again so i hope we don't chop around...sh** or get off the the bloody pot!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Could be, we're at the bottom of that wedge on the SPX. I got a ton a sell signals on my Flipper again so i hope we don't chop around...sh** or get off the the bloody pot!
> 
> CanOz




Up up and away! Who knows about the breadth side of things, as usual the index could drift up while the components weaken. But I'm more confident than that.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Funky action on the Honkers indexes. HSI going up HHI going down..... funky!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Funky action on the Honkers indexes. HSI going up HHI going down..... funky!!
> View attachment 47853




Cool, can you/do you spread trade that?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Cool, can you/do you spread trade that?
> 
> CanOz




yeah....... spread my profit to other traders!!

I don't like spread trades or arb stuff. I like just having a bet for a direction. Haven't got the brain for market neutral.


----------



## JLM Financial

Very interesting article for the bears out there.  With reporting season underway in the U.S and the huge drops in some of these stocks I wonder who will be next.
http://www.businessinsider.com/some..._campaign=Feed:+TheMoneyGame+(The+Money+Game)


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Cool, can you/do you spread trade that?
> 
> CanOz




Assuming you mean bet for the spread to narrow, why? You can see betting on the narrow has been a losing proposition for the last 20 mins of THs chart even as the potential 'reward' got bigger and bigger. Remember, you can be both long or short the spread - like the underlying - so you are exposed to directional risk of the spread. 

Good to try on the sim.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Assuming you mean bet for the spread to narrow, why?




Because i assumed that the market would revert to what it normally does, which is correlate.

No interest in trading a spread...just thought it was interesting.

CanOz


----------



## notting

JLM Financial said:


> Very interesting article for the bears out there.  With reporting season underway in the U.S and the huge drops in some of these stocks I wonder who will be next.
> http://www.businessinsider.com/some..._campaign=Feed:+TheMoneyGame+(The+Money+Game)




Quote from Business insider - 



> "The Fed is supposed to pump up the economy when it’s running too cold, with unemployment high and inflation low. That’s where we are right now, in the Fed’s own estimation. Yet the most recent minutes, from March, show Fed officials unwilling to take any further action to boost the economy."



The Fed is there to create liquidity when transactions become frozen due to fear and lack of confidence.  That way normal business transacting can continue in such an environment.  The fed is not there to "pump the economy when it's running too cold" unless of course it's Zimbabwe. Perhaps that's where business insider’s utopian economic principle guiding light comes from?


----------



## white_goodman

CanOz said:


> Because i assumed that the market would revert to what it normally does, which is correlate.
> 
> No interest in trading a spread...just thought it was interesting.
> 
> CanOz




two markets can be highly correlated but still have the spread widen..


----------



## CanOz

white_goodman said:


> two markets can be highly correlated but still have the spread widen..




Yes, obviously. That's what was happening...

Another good example is WTI and Brent. 

My point was that during an intra-day timeframe such as TH's was showing, the trade would have been to bet that the spread would narrow. I guess all divergences begin somewhere...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

hmmmm....retail traders trying to nail correlative patterns and trade the spread........WAFWOT !


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> hmmmm....retail traders trying to nail correlative patterns and trade the spread........WAFWOT !




LOL! Not me mate...got my hands full with directional bets!!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> hmmmm....retail traders trying to nail correlative patterns and trade the spread........WAFWOT !




Hey Joules, how much does 100,000USD cost to buy in EUR? 

Personally, the point I was trying to get across is that the idea *shouldn't be* to just bet on the spread reverting, it has its own directional risk! 

Correlation between correlated instruments has other uses though as when returns are 'normal' sectors tend to de-correlate, when returns are 'fat-tailed' correlation between sectors rises rapidly.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Hey Joules, how much does 100,000USD cost to buy in EUR?
> 
> Personally, the point I was trying to get across is that the idea *shouldn't be* to just bet on the spread reverting, it has its own directional risk!
> 
> Correlation between correlated instruments has other uses though as when returns are 'normal' sectors tend to de-correlate, when returns are 'fat-tailed' correlation between sectors rises rapidly.




nothin wrong with getting bias...... i like TLT v SPX spread....but it's womble bets from a retail perspective...... agree that the work that goes into there they go/now they dont has rubbish r/r and mostly because the context of spreads in the lead/lag is fuzzier for a retail player than a single instrument (nothing to lead or lag)

gad save me, i've fallen into academia.....again


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> nothin wrong with getting bias...... i like TLT v SPX spread




now we are talking!




I like this to measure relative preference bonds vs stocks. I find 60 days generally provides a good level of S/R to watch for preference changes. Done well over all the major market declines I've tested except the flash crash. Having tested a whole bunch of different instruments for bonds and stocks I picked SPY and BND (interchangeable with AGG). 

I've been working on a similar chart for the returns on a couple of bullish/bearish options strategies.

EDIT: Of course, before 2001, things between stocks and bonds were pretty much inverse to what they are now, so preference changing back then had lower utility and returns IIRC.


----------



## Joules MM1

my fave correlation pic


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just so we can all play the what if game. tomorrow lunch there is a heap of China news out. Mainly GDP.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Just so we can all play the what if game. tomorrow lunch there is a heap of China news out. Mainly GDP.




Sort of expecting a range day then yeah?

Whats the bet the Kospi has already put in the high and low for the day then? Waiting to see how the HSI opens..

CanOz


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Just so we can all play the what if game. tomorrow lunch there is a heap of China news out. Mainly GDP.




With the recent easing policies you'd think the headline figures can afford to be a little bit softer (without crazy market reaction)... but the Chinese market price action looks to me it is threatening a major break lower...


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Sort of expecting a range day then yeah?
> 
> Whats the bet the Kospi has already put in the high and low for the day then? Waiting to see how the HSI opens..
> 
> CanOz




The HSI opened bang on the high volume area for yesterday (POC), if that's not a sign of a balanced market then i don't know what is!!

Range day, looking to play the extremes of the ranges.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> The HSI opened bang on the high volume area for yesterday (POC), if that's not a sign of a balanced market then i don't know what is!!
> 
> Range day, looking to play the extremes of the ranges.
> 
> CanOz




F*** me...WTF??

Stopped on trying to fade both the K200 and the HSI....Done for the day.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

WTF is with china  Up 1 %

I'm full long HSI and trying to fix my day. But I'm gonna 

come on pop. I need it :arsch:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> WTF is with china  Up 1 %
> 
> I'm full long HSI and trying to fix my day. But I'm gonna
> 
> come on pop. I need it :arsch:





I'm gonna spew just thinking about it...:eek3:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I'm gonna spew just thinking about it...:eek3:




I haven't spewed it up totally but I was a little sick in my mouth  1/2 out will pick more up if we come back down to 19045 and push up.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> WTF is with china  Up 1 %




I think there was lots of overnight action as the FOMC minutes were misinterpreted by Bloomberg, then it went up today on reinterpretation short covers.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/07/11/bloomberg-overreaching-again-on-the-china-headline/


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> I haven't spewed it up totally but I was a little sick in my mouth  1/2 out will pick more up if we come back down to 19045 and push up.




Bid was held well at 50..


----------



## CanOz

Woo hoo, 19000 got defending with a couple of lots!!!

How many were THs?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> *Just so we can all play the what if game.* tomorrow lunch there is a heap of China news out. Mainly GDP.




Want to highlight a post to a gent who may be trading a market thinking about a way to approach it given some comments in another thread.

Just saying....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Want to highlight a post to a gent who may be trading a market thinking about a way to approach it given some comments in another thread.
> 
> Just saying....





I'll be ready this time....


Hopefully he will be too...



CanOz


----------



## Timmy

Its Friday the 13th.

Spooky.


----------



## CanOz

Timmy said:


> Its Friday the 13th.
> 
> Spooky.




Another Black Friday perhaps?


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Another Black Friday perhaps?




China GDP as expected... is that a buy, sell or hold?!

No one seems too enthusiastic about it yet.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> China GDP as expected... is that a buy, sell or hold?!
> 
> No one seems too enthusiastic about it yet.




Way too much vol into that pop. not a good sign. Boyz boyz boyz everywhere!!


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Way too much vol into that pop. not a good sign. Boyz boyz boyz everywhere!!




ES or HSI? Aus looks pretty good atm


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Way too much vol into that pop. not a good sign. Boyz boyz boyz everywhere!!




Moving back into the value areas. I'll be short under 19000, but I'll wait before i take any upside. 

235.65 is my short on the K200.

Its like they don't believe the number....i wonder why lol! Its got that too good to be true, must be much worse feel to it!!

I'm expecting a slow grind to the lows and then a fast break down there somewhere...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> ES or HSI? Aus looks pretty good atm




HSI

And it looks :bloated:


----------



## Joules MM1

i smell a rat in a trap.........

stinkin


----------



## CanOz

Distributing...I'm going to wait and see. We could stay in a range for a while...Bracketing.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Distributing...I'm going to wait and see. We could stay in a range for a while...Bracketing.




trap not quite sprung yet.......some days it's best to see if the second mouse who got the cheese didnt also get the booby-baite too ......


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> trap not quite sprung yet.......some days it's best to see if the second mouse who got the cheese didnt also get the booby-baite too ......




One things for sure its best not to take a bloody bias!!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> One things for sure its best not to take a bloody bias!!
> 
> CanOz




bias is normal, bias being another word for opinion......we discussed the imagination thing this morning.....distribution/accum are events by people, the question is, by whom and what's the gain, what's the target once it's completed, what's the point in distributing right here......who's taking up all that distribution.......what's the point of todays date if any......


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> One things for sure its best not to take a bloody bias!!
> 
> CanOz




Generally I find it's better not to simply ignore/exclude trades which go against your bias (personally I think bias is good), but rather to size trades which go with your bias differently from those which go against.


----------



## Timmy

Dudes - not the weekend yet 

Chatter that ECB deposit rates could turn negative by September

Any news on this around? Last I heard was a week ago


----------



## Timmy

Timmy said:


> Dudes - not the weekend yet




Yowza - not even close yet!!!!

Euro buying, big, the driver this morn


----------



## Uncle Festivus

So do we think that the Dow is used as a global proxy to pump global markets? The weekly loss just magically disappeared in the last half hour tickle up? 

JPM - The loss on the synthetic credit portfolio was offset by accounting  gains from adjustments in its debt valuation, an increase in the value  of some securities holdings and a reduction in loan-loss reserves. Overall, the bank’s second-quarter earnings fell 8.7% from the year-ago quarter, as the bank saw a *16% decline in revenue.
*
What a crock of sh*t! Apparently $5BILLION worth of 'adjustments'??? Welcome to 'The Emperor is naked' market.

China still contracting GDP 7.6% previously 8.1 
China Industrial Production y/y worse than expected @ 9.5%
UoM Consumer Sentiment worse than expected @ 72
etc etc

Moody’s Investors Service announced on July 12 that it was downgrading Italian government bonds  by two more notches in response to the continuing financial problems  plaguing the country. The Italian bond rating went from A3 to Baa2,  which makes the sovereign debt instruments of seventh largest economy of  the world just two notches ahead of junk bonds. Italy’s national debt is currently â‚¬415 billion, or one quarter of its GDP.

(Reuters) - Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro- zone countries, stripping France  and Austria of their coveted triple-A status but not EU paymaster  Germany, in a Black Friday the 13th for the troubled single currency  area.

Ho hum - like shooting fish in a barrel 

If my theory -  manipulated woodies because they know upcoming data is going to be bad - is correct then expect some more bad news next week and some big falls??


----------



## CanOz

Why can't it be a technical retest of the bearish wedge...made up of mostly shorts taking profits after days of declines...

Should this not be expected?

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Why can't it be a technical retest of the bearish wedge...made up of mostly shorts taking profits after days of declines...
> 
> Should this not be expected?
> 
> CanOz




I guess that's all it's got going for it then - a short covering rally worth 200pts?? Needs a dose of financial air freshener I think - something stinks about these markets? Did anyone, using any method, predict a 200pt rally?

Can anyone come on here and say with any confidence what the Dow will be this time next week, esp the techo's? I think the unpredictability of it all is a major reason why retail (traders) is largely absent these days (look at the volume?)?


----------



## notting

Although I'm not deluded enough to think I can predict anything,
I did go in pretty hard Thursday and a bit more Friday, because the moves by the ECB were quite significant last time we were at these levels.  
Yesterday was the first day of zero interest offered by the ECB for institutions to keep money with them,  and as that came on line a massive amount of cash was taken out and, well, must be put somewhere!! 
I also felt the JP Morgan Whale-gate was overplayed and that JP Morgan's reporting would give the US a lift.
Also felt that 7 days of decline is rather rare.
Also thought that the Italian Bond interest rate decline was a rather bullish indicator given it occurred after it was downgraded!
Also felt that the reporting season was entered into with low and negative expectations as was the expectations from China.
Seemed like there was only one way things could go.
Oddly the market actually did what it should have.


----------



## Trembling Hand

notting said:


> Oddly the market actually did what it should have.




nah mate it should go to zero.


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> nah mate it should go to zero.




What? On Monday?
Oh yeah it's 2012, didn't pick you for one of them TH


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> nah mate it should go to zero.




I'm not advocating that, although cant rule it out completely 

What I am saying is that all these measures are being taken exactly because things are so bad - it's not because all is sunshine & tim tams is it?

So obviously the various QE's etc go firstly into equity plumping coz there's pretty much nothing left to money shuffle. Just another opportunity to take advantage of the human condition of ignorance I guess.....

The challenge is still there - closing Dow value next Sat morning and more importantly, why. It's all very well to post in hindsight what was done _after_ the fact.........


----------



## Joules MM1

marketwatch


9:32p	
Australia's RBA: below-average rates appropriate
9:32p	
Australia's RBA: saw low inflation rate
9:32p	
Australia's RBA: Saw below average growth


----------



## Joules MM1

rat-trap sprung.......is the bull market in shorting the HSI over.......nah......not yet


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> rat-trap sprung.......is the bull market in shorting the HSI over.......nah......not yet




Bloody hell best 30 min of trending in a long time and I'm outta the game due to "tech difficulties"!!


----------



## CanOz

Check out the business done before that pop...


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> and I'm outta the game due to "tech difficulties"!!




Its OK, he's come back.


----------



## sinner

Good day to return to the market, but I always have this problem of confidence after a break. Liquidities f***all right now, which I assume is why we're still on the highs.


----------



## sinner

Bwuahahaha fading a high and winning is even better than a smooth clean trend!

Limit short 8 lots into 1.0307, TP just hit at 1.0287. Not as much love but much less stress on a 2 pip drawdown.

Calling it a day. Bring on Wednesday!


----------



## CanOz

Yikes...what a choppy day on Honkers...

Should have been bracketing the tape instead of trying for HR.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yikes...what a choppy day on Honkers...
> 
> Should have been bracketing the tape instead of trying for HR.




Whats HR?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats HR?





Home Run...:viking:


----------



## Joules MM1

hsi, generous mode.....and took some gold plays with it too.....nice


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> hsi, generous mode.....and took some gold plays with it too.....nice




Yeah, i guess lunch didn't agree...must have been the BBQ pork


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> hsi, generous mode.....and took some gold plays with it too.....nice




I was almost certain today would be an inside day. Had no friggin idea it would also have a range of 330 ticks!!


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> I was almost certain today would be an inside day. Had no friggin idea it would also have a range of 330 ticks!!




i was riding gold and thinking you'd be lapping the scalping in the early session ........looked like a small range day for sure

when hsi broke down i had to ride that in the arvo.....only a ton + .....oh well.....


----------



## Joules MM1

how ripping was the xjo ?.......:horse: 

not


----------



## CanOz

I'm just sooo happy not to be in this at the moment :nunchux:  ..you guys can have it..


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> i was riding gold and thinking you'd be lapping the scalping in the early session ........looked like a small range day for sure
> 
> when hsi broke down i had to ride that in the arvo.....only a ton + .....oh well.....



 Yeah I did good for the first 30 min of the arvo session. Then had a brainwave of going long........ _cucumber rumba _for me!



Joules MM1 said:


> how ripping was the xjo ?.......:horse:
> 
> not



 haha as always. the sooner they close the ASX the better


----------



## Joules MM1

gold smash in situ

money managers in action .........suspect commericals loading up on supply

nice

:


----------



## CanOz

300 point open drive on the HSI, wow...


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> 300 point open drive on the HSI, wow...




wait, wait, point or tick :S?!


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> wait, wait, point or tick :S?!




same


----------



## boofis

gees, no wonder you said 4 is the small of smallest moves  
Gotta get some HSI data and just start watching ey....tschuss


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> gees, no wonder you said 4 is the small of smallest moves
> Gotta get some HSI data and just start watching ey....tschuss



4 ticks on the ES is still 0.07% move. Noise.


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> 4 ticks on the ES is still 0.07% move. Noise.




Just having a read of your average daily range blog post, cheers.


----------



## Joules MM1

ah, mccains, ya did it again.........nice drag on gold ......$$


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> ah, mccains, ya did it again.........nice drag on gold ......$$




You trade CL (OIL)? Doing a good impression of here today,


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> You trade CL (OIL)? Doing a good impression of here today,
> 
> View attachment 47985




very rarely.....in the same way that sometimes i might lick a cheese grater


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> very rarely.....in the same way that sometimes i might lick a cheese grater




What about a go on here,


----------



## CanOz

LOL...where do you get this stuff


----------



## CanOz

> European markets near session highs while Spanish 10 yr just shy 7%
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/InPlayEq/InPlay/InPlay.htm#ixzz213QAfoWX




The DAX is moving but no opening drive like we saw in Asia...Spanish Auction results out later...

CanOz


----------



## notting

Spain's benchmark 10-year bond back above 7%. :22_yikes:


----------



## Joules MM1

this is the way we smash some shorts, smash some shorts, smash some shorts.......

:bananasmi


----------



## sinner

Wrapping up for my first week back in the saddle.

Got chopped up a bit on Wednesday looking for the wrong kind of AUD love, but did alright yesterday picking up points around hourly highs and lows on the 1 min.

A mild week overall despite good moves in the underlying on the daily  at least it wasn't a loser.

All scratches and commission today, no idea what I'm doing.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> All scratches and commission today, no idea what I'm doing.




yep, hung out with that crowd a few times 

regaining some muscle memory, sinner ?


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> yep, hung out with that crowd a few times
> 
> regaining some muscle memory, sinner ?




Definitely. 

Memory #1: Retail consistently sucks at AUD timing, fade moves that would turn retail sentiment profitable when they show up and scratch your balls the rest of the time. Much cheaper than trying to figure out what's going on, no excuses for picking tops when the boys are net long, even if it paid a little on Tuesday it cost me Wednesday.
Memory #2: If you have no reason to expect a 100 pip move in the next 3 minutes, why trade like you're about to pick one? (Corollary, it is *totally* ok to trade like that if you have a solid/confident reason size accordingly).
Memory #3: Tight horizontal action on the chart is a usually a free lunch on the breakout, *so JUST WAIT FOR THE BREAKOUT *

Hopefully next week the muscles kick in before I send any orders through to the broker, instead of pulling out the :bigun2: and then feeling like a puke on fills.


----------



## CanOz

Whew, all quiet now :sleeping: ...beer o:cuckoo:clock soon I think.


----------



## Joules MM1

Mass shooting at Batman premiere in Colorado

    News Limited Network
    July 20, 2012 7:03PM


> TEN people shot dead as masked gunman opens fire on patrons at a cinema in the US screening the new Batman movie.




http://www.news.com.au/world/mass-s...iere-in-colorado/story-fndir2ev-1226431167005


----------



## CanOz

We have some bad data this morning or something...good grief the markets have given back most of the last weeks gains...

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> We have some bad data this morning or something...good grief the markets have given back most of the last weeks gains...
> 
> CanOz




We had 3-4 days of "The world is going to be OK" so next up on the program is 3 to 4 days of "The world ends tomorrow", followed by a few days of "Let's pause and think about what we just did...".


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> We have some bad data this morning or something...




It was decided over the weekend that tomorrows China data will confirm they are stuffed also,

The US is stuffed,

also,

That the Greeks are stuffed,

and now that Spain's 7% + bonds will be a problem this week although they weren't last week!!


----------



## CanOz

Welcome back volatility then...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> It was decided over the weekend ....that Spain's 7% + bonds will be a problem this week although they weren't last week!!




shuffling the wording doesnt seem to change the irony and comedic value.......


----------



## Joules MM1

skc said:


> We had 3-4 days of "The world is going to be OK" so next up on the program is 3 to 4 days of "The world ends tomorrow", followed by a few days of "Let's pause and think about what we just did...".




not sure who it was who said "smooth sailing" recently.......i guess it's true if yer talking bout a skip down a waterfall....weeeeee


----------



## skc

Joules MM1 said:


> not sure who it was who said "smooth sailing" recently.......i guess it's true if yer talking bout a skip down a waterfall....weeeeee




Over here...



Gringotts Bank said:


> Switch on your long systems.  Smooth seas ahead.




Ok to make wrong calls. Hope he didn't lose his sails or keel.


----------



## Joules MM1

skc said:


> Over here...
> 
> 
> 
> Ok to make wrong calls. Hope he didn't lose his sails or keel.




a few people sayin the same thing.......no offence intended.....although, it's a good time to highlight to look tests of lows and not just pick them in isolation.......




> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> According to Barrons, Concensus bulls last week was 57%. It has not been below 50% this year


----------



## CanOz

Well the DAX is a choppy mess today, i guess i could have taken a long at 6518-6520 but it didn't look good at the time. Lots of big orders in the book today, 200+. they appear, the price seems to go the opposite way for a few points, then back towards the spoof...This is the first time I've noticed it. Mostly on the bid today.

CanOz


----------



## Punta

Looks like the dax just shat itself.  I tried a bit of discretionary trading this eve, got myself in a hole pretty sharpish.  Lesson learnt.  Let the computer make the decisions!!


----------



## CanOz

Punta said:


> Looks like the dax just shat itself.  I tried a bit of discretionary trading this eve, got myself in a hole pretty sharpish.  Lesson learnt.  Let the computer make the decisions!!




Yeah finally broke big time...glad i didn't try and lose my sim profit for the day...Great action though.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Yeah finally broke big time...glad i didn't try and lose my sim profit for the day...Great action though.
> 
> CanOz




action thus far fits the higher time frames........i'm buying spx at and above 39's


----------



## Joules MM1

be a few shorts caught off guard here.......expect some energy


----------



## Trembling Hand

Maybe a delay to the Honkers open today. Just a bit under the weather,

http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm

http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/market/typhoons/tradingarrangement.htm


----------



## skc

They've banned shorting in Italy and Spain. We should be fine now


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Maybe a delay to the Honkers open today. Just a bit under the weather,
> 
> http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm
> 
> http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/market/typhoons/tradingarrangement.htm




jeez, Vincent's going to be  a big boy when he grows up

utthedoor:


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> They've banned shorting in Italy and Spain. We should be fine now




Amazing, they did this during the GFC as well. Months after GS made a bloody fortune shorting AIGs stock as well as many other banks that they setup to fail. Then the Government bans short selling well after the banks had lost the bulk of their value to appear to be _doing something_. In the meantime their banking buddies ended up walking away with billions from that and the bailout they needed as well.

But nooo, ban short selling so the retail traders can't provide any liquidity and the stocks fall further as there are no buyers anywhere now, not even the short sellers can buy back...Totally political.

Anyway, you can still short country ETFs. 

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Amazing, they did this during the GFC as well. Months after GS made a bloody fortune shorting AIGs stock as well as many other banks that they setup to fail. Then the Government bans short selling well after the banks had lost the bulk of their value to appear to be _doing something_. In the meantime their banking buddies ended up walking away with billions from that and the bailout they needed as well.
> 
> But nooo, ban short selling so the retail traders can't provide any liquidity and the stocks fall further as there are no buyers anywhere now, not even the short sellers can buy back...Totally political.
> 
> Anyway, you can still short country ETFs.
> 
> CanOz




Wake me up when they ban these lol

http://www.theoptionsguide.com/synthetic-short-stock.aspx


----------



## Joules MM1

and a word from our sponsors ....


----------



## sinner

1.0269 ....driving me nuts. Thought I had it but someone just pushed it off again, not very inspiring reaction.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules why do you bother with CMC? They have a 12 point spread on Honkers!!


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Joules why do you bother with CMC? They have a 12 point spread on Honkers!!




yep, fair point.......i stay out of the chop on hsi which means missing a lot of moves, bad and good, i guess

......looking at ninja at the mo......taking my time, want to know all the ins n outs


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> yep, fair point.......i stay out of the chop on hsi which means missing a lot of moves, bad and good, i guess
> 
> ......looking at ninja at the mo......taking my time, want to know all the ins n outs




You can trade the MHI, 10 HKD per tick, 1-5 point spread, 1.5 ticks brokerage cost and you don't have to cross the spread on every trade.

I wouldn't use NT for honkers, Just IBs booktrader.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> You can trade the MHI, 10 HKD per tick, 1-5 point spread, 1.5 ticks brokerage cost and you don't have to cross the spread on every trade.
> 
> I wouldn't use NT for honkers, Just IBs booktrader.





got it, thanks....


----------



## Timmy

HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI to be released in a few minutes.

Forex Factory Eco Calendar the prev. number is 48.2

Here's a handy reference for the ASF Perma-Doomers, simply cut and paste according to the result:

--

<48.2  See, we're doomed, told ya so.

=48.2  See, we're doomed, told ya so.

<50  See, we're doomed, told ya so.

= or >50 These reports are just so rigged. We're doomed.

--

You're welcome.


----------



## CanOz

The Kos is just lonely without Honkers...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> The Kos is just lonely without Honkers...




You know where the players play...... artyman:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> You know where the players play...... artyman:




Someone just cleared a huge short position and now the market is rallying....WTF??


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Someone just cleared a huge short position and now the market is rallying....WTF??




Or is it?


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Someone just cleared a huge short position and now the market is rallying....WTF??






> the head fake we had to have



 paul keating, bacon futures


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> You know where the players play...... artyman:




They must be all taking cover...

*IB Notice - 13:00 start with no pre-open.*


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> 1.0269 ....driving me nuts. Thought I had it but someone just pushed it off again, not very inspiring reaction.





1.0269! F yeah!




Shame I didn't have a TP in place and it's already been sold hard while I was out for lunch...so my nice trade is up...6 points.


----------



## sinner

I guess if 75 holds maybe we can push higher in the very short term, but definitely not the sort of love you want to see holding into the next hour.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> They must be all taking cover...
> 
> *IB Notice - 13:00 start with no pre-open.*




UPDATE!!! Pre-open for HKFE at 12:30


----------



## sinner

To the tee! 

75s held, pushed to 86/87s where I unloaded.

Done for the day! Not exactly lots of size but good clean trade good clean profits.


----------



## sinner

How does it get any nicer than this?



> I guess if 75 holds maybe we can push higher in the very short term


----------



## CanOz

> China Jul HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 48.2 in Jun
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz21VjOvIzI




Yeah right....lol!


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Yeah right....lol!




I wasn't expecting the AUD to move react it did at all, quite surprised but on the sidelines till London so no skin off my back.


----------



## sinner

Shanghai, haven't looked at this chart in a couple of weeks.

Lower than this is six month lows. Rough!


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Shanghai, haven't looked at this chart in a couple of weeks.
> 
> Lower than this is six month lows. Rough!
> 
> View attachment 48089




Double bottom!! Woo hoo!


----------



## CanOz

> Eurozone Manuf PMI 46.4 vs 46.4 in Jun
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz21WcNPtg7




The market is feeling pretty good about this so far...

CanOz


----------



## notting

> Madrid stocks plummeted 3.58 per cent to their lowest level since April 2003. Milan shares ended down 2.7 per cent



:1zhelp:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> :1zhelp:




s-h-o-r-t  before the :sheep: get :badass:


----------



## Joules MM1

what's that skip? you can hear the Valkeries tune? smell of burnt shorts in the morning?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> what's that skip? you can hear the Valkeries tune? smell of burnt shorts in the morning?




F'in hell.

I hitout big long just before honkers cash open to find out that ABN's systems are F-up. Orders are going via carrier pigeon!!

So I'm full long without being able to close.  :bricks1: Call up risk desk. They go opposite with another account. So now on my screen I'm up in one account and down the same in another. Great day!!
:fu::arsch:


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> F'in hell.
> 
> I hitout big long just before honkers cash open to find out that ABN's systems are F-up. Orders are going via carrier pigeon!!
> 
> So I'm full long without being able to close.  :bricks1: Call up risk desk. They go opposite with another account. So now on my screen I'm up in one account and down the same in another. Great day!!
> :fu::arsch:




oh, bucket of puss nuts 

· · · ”” ”” ”” · · · (free morse code just in case)


----------



## CanOz

An un-hedged long would have been nice though....(in hindsight now)


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> F'in hell.




r kenny help her capten....sheez brekkin upwudds

tha sellaz r ..... well.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> An un-hedged long would have been nice though....(in hindsight now)




what you want me feeling worse?


----------



## sinner

Check it out, compared to yesterday! 

Large increase in AUD net longs, a bit hard to take the selling since Monday as seriously on that.


----------



## sinner

1.0234 looking pretty important right now. I'm selling a few piddling lots here with a stupidly tight manual stop at 37.


----------



## sinner

Might try and sell some more on a break down of 25 if I get stopped out.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> I hitout big long just before honkers cash open to find out that ABN's systems are F-up. Orders are going via carrier pigeon!!
> 
> So I'm full long without being able to close.  :bricks1: Call up risk desk. They go opposite with another account. So now on my screen I'm up in one account and down the same in another. Great day!!
> :fu::arsch:




Ever get the feeling the world actually is against you?

:dimbulb:


----------



## sinner

Stopped! As usual when I try to pick tops against sentiment.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Ever get the feeling the world actually is against you?
> 
> :dimbulb:




Ohh yeah...

Nice call going long though...

Have they fixed up they're issues yet?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Have they fixed up they're issues yet?




Yeah but I only got the last bit from 800 to 850!!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah but I only got the last bit from *800 to 850*!!!




You might get a chance at that one again...


----------



## notting

[/URL]







Uncle Festivus said:


> s-h-o-r-t  before the :sheep: get :badass:




Was kinda thinken along those lines around here dear~

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2508&p=695024#post695024

I like to run head first into the pack of sheep coming toward me when they look profoundly stupid.  
Guess I must be a Ram.


----------



## CanOz

My Deep Economic Sentiment Indicator (DESI) has taken a recent dive....

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL!


----------



## JLM Financial

IBEX up 1.7%? Yet Spanish 10-year yields at record highs?  Something is amiss. 
We might see the VIX jump again.


----------



## Trembling Hand

JLM Financial said:


> IBEX up 1.7%? Yet Spanish 10-year yields at record highs?  Something is amiss.
> We might see the VIX jump again.




Why would the VIX jump on a bullish move   

What time are you talking about?


----------



## CanOz

Explains the mystery rally...



> Federal Reserve officials, impatient with the economy's sluggish growth and high unemployment, are moving closer to taking new steps to spur activity and hiring.
> 
> Since their June policy meeting, officials have made clear””in interviews, speeches and testimony to Congress””that they find the current state of the economy unacceptable. Many officials appear increasingly inclined to move unless they see evidence soon that activity is picking up on its own.
> 
> Amid the recent wave of disappointing economic news, conversation inside the Fed has turned more intensely toward the questions of how and when to move. Central bank officials could take new steps ...




CanOz


----------



## notting

Hmmm let me think the way they might be thinking.
Earnings are down but profits are up.
Housing is showing signs of recovery so locally we have a bit of self sustenance.
However, due to rising dollar against the Euro multinational mega earnings might fall off a cliff as Euro goes below 1.2zero and we slip into techy recession, psychology takes hold and  inward even we fold.
Eeeeaaaazzzzy - eeeeeaaaazing, time to buy gold(for a very short hold)

And you'd imagine in a relativly short space of time 
'Well may we have said God praise the printeen, but nothing can save the pain of Spain.:goodnight


----------



## Trembling Hand

Honestly I'm a gunn!! I'm up exactly the same amount of points to the amount contracts i've done!! Expectancy of 0.000000001 

A gun without bullets today........ again.


----------



## CanOz

Someone does not want the DAX at this level...a ton of orders hitting the offer yet the market keeps dropping...


CanOz


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Why would the VIX jump on a bullish move
> 
> What time are you talking about?




I think what he's saying is IBEX bull move doesn't mesh with record high yields in Spanish credit, therefore VIX will jump when the market "returns to reality". Personally I think it's more sane to buy IBEX puts if that's the view.

From me, not much today AUD didn't touch sell limits I had set and couldn't get a grip on longs when the price turned. 1R down and a couple of scratches.

Cold and windy in Melbs today! I've been drinking lots of honey,lemon,ginger tea and chewing licorice root from one of the Chinese groocers at Preston Market. 

:cup:


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Someone does not want the DAX at this level...a ton of orders hitting the offer yet the market keeps dropping...
> 
> 
> CanOz




store that.......come back and look at it in a few days time......i think there's some key info in there.....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> store that.......come back and look at it in a few days time......i think there's some key info in there.....




Yeah totally, i went out on a bike ride after i posted that and the whole the way i was trying to think how many time i have seen that before....

I might post a blog entry on it too.


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Someone does not want the DAX at this level...a ton of orders hitting the offer yet the market keeps dropping...
> 
> 
> CanOz




Bumb....


----------



## avion

!Euro, shares rise and Bunds fall on Draghi comments


    LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - The euro and European shares 
rose on Thursday and German Bund futures fell after European 
Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the central bank was 
ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. 


Super Mario!!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Bumb....





Bumb?:arsch:

You mean bump??

Comments from Draghi...other market participants entered the market on that news and then shorts ran for cover...I missed the whole thing. Its a good idea to be flat whilst these guys are yapping i reckon.

Now we're at the other side of the range trying to decide if its worth higher prices...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Bumb?:arsch:
> 
> You mean bump??
> 
> Comments from Draghi...other market participants entered the market on that news and then shorts ran for cover...I missed the whole thing. Its a good idea to be flat whilst these guys are yapping i reckon.
> 
> Now we're at the other side of the range trying to decide if its worth higher prices...
> 
> CanOz




bump .....as in, so, no one knew the annoc was coming.........cough.......


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Bumb?:arsch:
> 
> You mean bump??




haha

maybe I did maybe I didn't! :silly:


----------



## Joules MM1

tw@ttosphere


----------



## Joules MM1

the Dougy was holding long yesterday......and the Fari was holding shorts this morning......hows them shorts looking now, Fari ?

Wonder what the Bernank is going to do now.......have a shave?


----------



## tech/a

BOOM!


----------



## notting

Draghi regurgitated.
He's amazing!!!:car::guitar::bananasmi:nuts::bonk::taz:


----------



## CanOz

6510 was a nice top and I was cooking...bugger...lots of fades in that move...


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> 6510 was a nice top and I was cooking...bugger...lots of fades in that move...




Fade ?
You seem hung up on fading
What the hells wrong with the trend!!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Fade ?
> You seem hung up on fading
> What the hells wrong with the trend!!




The plan was to fade up until 6480 to 6525 ish, then if it still wants to go higher look for pullbacks to go long with a target of 6630.

Our markets aren't that trendy on average Tech, esp the DAX, they're more mean reverting...

I'm not trying to trend trade intra-day, i have an automated system for that.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Just did a whole days SIM profits trying to join an uptrend....

Sold the next top and got my first to targets right away....

Fading is 100000 x easier than jumping on a trend intra-day.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

3M in the lead as all 30 Dow components trade higher in big Street rally; Exxon Mobil lags
07/26/2012 09:53:12 AM
marketwatch




> Fari Hamzei ‏@HamzeiAnalytics
> 
> for the record, I overslept and I am caught short ES during this move - at 0841 CT, I added to my shorts per our private Twitter Feed/Chat



 2 mins ago ........

one more ping, Vasilliev


----------



## notting

Exxons Lag. Whilst doing not to bad - 
"Exxon Mobil's profit surged 49% to $15.9 billion during the second quarter. The massive number -- which would be by far the highest quarterly profit ever for any company"
'What do they want from us!'


----------



## skc

Joules MM1 said:


> 3M in the lead as all 30 Dow components trade higher in big Street rally;




I total knew that the global post-it note demand was on the rise... I mean, they come with all sorts of shapes and sizes and colour these days, and they stick better than ever. Some even have words like "Sign here", "Draft only" and "Bite me" printed on them.

The innovations happening at the 3M post-it department is simply amazing.


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Just did a whole days SIM profits trying to join an uptrend....
> 
> Sold the next top and got my first to targets right away....
> 
> Fading is 100000 x easier than jumping on a trend intra-day.
> 
> CanOz




Hopping on a trend is similar in all timeframes.

I'd suggest the hard part is staying in the trend once on.


----------



## Joules MM1

skc said:


> I total knew that the global post-it note demand was on the rise... I mean, they come with all sorts of shapes and sizes and colour these days, and they stick better than ever. Some even have words like "Sign here", "Draft only" and "Bite me" printed on them.
> 
> The innovations happening at the 3M post-it department is simply amazing.




:1zhelp::1zhelp: surrounded by unwarranted cynics 



ah, good to be the king


----------



## Joules MM1

skc said:


> I total knew that the global post-it note demand was on the rise... I mean, they come with all sorts of shapes and sizes and colour these days, and they stick better than ever. Some even have words like "Sign here", "Draft only" and "Bite me" printed on them.
> 
> The innovations happening at the 3M post-it department is simply amazing.




post it note left on Draghi dinner table

"dad, make those comments again just like last time, ok"

(Draghi junior, long)


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Hopping on a trend is similar in all timeframes.
> 
> I'd suggest the hard part is staying in the trend once on.




I find that using the order flow to pick an entry point in a pullback much more difficult that fading a spike. That could be because the locals are a little more obvious and tend to show their hand. Whereas market orders hitting the bid or offer are more difficult to use for this. I could be wrong, just not sure how to articulate the reason why, but it's just something that I feel. There is also a reluctance to enter ona pullback because of the fear that the trend may have ended,  as they frequently do these days. As I said, indexes are mean reverting, and have been on the whole since 2009.

I will however, need the flexibility and skills to be able to identify potential in a new trend so that I can use that when it makes more sense than fading. This will take some time I feel. I believe that I correctly identified the possibility for a trend on my blog yesterday, but failed to capitalize on the trend once it showed its potential.

Live and learn...

attached from Jason Leavitt's site: Hard for swing traders in this crap...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Bugger, short the HSI and no Internet....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Shes a real grinder today on the Seng. 

They turned on the big stuff and buy walk-up switch thingo today,,


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Bugger, short the HSI and no Internet....




How do you post that then?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> How do you post that then?




iPad, 3G....

What's it at?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> iPad, 3G....
> 
> What's it at?




19268.

Why not get the ipad app? 

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/mobiletws/id426488571?mt=8&ls=1


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> 19268.
> 
> Why not get the ipad app?
> 
> http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/mobiletws/id426488571?mt=8&ls=1




Yeah, I've got it and would use it for my real account...good chance to test it again today I guess


----------



## Joules MM1

the live chat thing is very handy.....

a challenge for a lot of traders is trading out of context with the recent strength and being run over by strength ...a continuity in one side.....even tho there maybe distribution upwards...again, a ladder shows activity but the players who arent seen in the DOM until they want to do business needs thinking well outside of empiric or implied numbers.......easy to get trapped into fading as it becomes an emotive logic thing to do.....but the frame work for the whole move, which may take several days to play out, is with momentum......a lower risk side......


----------



## Joules MM1

as we move to lunch, HSI, we're more likely to get covering dips....but picking pockets against goliath


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> a ladder shows activity but the players who arent seen in the DOM until they want to do business needs thinking well outside of empiric or implied numbers.......




I guess that's pretty much it in a nutshell isn't it....sit and wait for them to hit the offer big and if its not absorbed then go with it...Be F***ed if I'm gonna buy breakouts, that a sure fire way to get :burn:!! Although there could shorts just beyond the breakout level that will , that could be another entry i guess...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I guess that's pretty much it in a nutshell isn't it....sit and wait for them to hit the offer big and if its not absorbed then go with it...Be F***ed if I'm gonna buy breakouts, that a sure fire way to get :burn:!! Although there could shorts just beyond the breakout level that will , that could be another entry i guess...




....phases....several phases of different players come to breach to pull the trigger, once the main business is done maybe there's lower tier money coming to play some traps but with rare event moves like this it's easier to get run over.....bracketing _when_ business one side or the other may become vital thought before the session opens......


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Be F***ed if I'm gonna buy breakouts, that a sure fire way to get :burn:!!




I do alright with them, it just requires a different way of thinking about things. Also, the symmetry for upside and downside breakouts is different depending on the market and if you don't take it into account then it seems like breakouts often suck. EURUSD intraday is a good example of this, I don't trade breakouts like that on GBPUSD.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Fades and breakouts are traded exactly the same way. Only dif is you hang onto the breakout longer.


----------



## sinner

I wish 1.046 would just give way and leave me in peace!


----------



## sinner

Give up and eat a small loss here, might be better to wait for London.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bit late I know but was going to say don't fight the strong locals on the last day of the month. Its pay day tomorrow.....


----------



## Joules MM1

cupla free lunches gold/silver longs....be quick


----------



## Joules MM1

thin chowder raiding party


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> thin chowder ..




tight, thin, small, miniscule.:1zhelp:.....no chowder at all.........payday reaped, no one wants to play now?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> tight, thin, small, miniscule.:1zhelp:.....no chowder at all.........payday reaped, no one wants to play now?




I'm not sure if you are talking about the market or your avatar?


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm not sure if you are talking about the market or your avatar?




ya, freudian....  ....raquel 

oh, took 3 points on xjo......sez it all really


----------



## Punta

Unusual to see the HSI and SPI fighting like this.  Which will crack first??


----------



## Joules MM1

Punta said:


> Unusual to see the HSI and SPI fighting like this.  Which will crack first??




more likely that money movers are shtum until most of the major talking heads are done with their annocs this/next week leading into jackson hole.....given the amount of data around suggesting we're heading higher no one wants to get heavy selling....cept maybe metals....


----------



## CanOz

I guess the market participants are thinking more stimulus is in store for ChinaWhooosh...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh Blooody heeell. TT is rubbish or maybe its mei!


----------



## CanOz

ahhh, 300 long at 820??


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> ahhh, 300 long at 820??




Nah opposite got short on the last push and went to lighten load once it was in my favour a bit but closed most of the position!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah opposite got short on the last push and went to lighten load once it was in my favour a bit but closed most of the position!!




Grrrr!! Hits target with practically sim quantity!


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Grrrr!! Hits target with practically sim quantity!




having a fat fingering  fella ?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah opposite got short on the last push and went to lighten load once it was in my favour a bit but closed most of the position!!




Was you at 828 LOL! 60 on the bid!

Nice picking that one. I tried the first one and  it up...the second one looked like it was going to go again...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Was you at 828 LOL! 60 on the bid!




Nah nice try but that wasn't me.. :


----------



## CanOz

WT ... heck

Did someone open their trap again??

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> WT ... heck
> 
> Did someone open their trap again??
> 
> CanOz




no, i said get rid of the cheese, not the cheats......we really shouldnt do business lunch in a strip club.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone see that crap by the Boyz on the HSI open! Got taken to the cleaners in the first 15 min. Day was about $1 away from being over on the daily stop.  Thankfully they kept up their nonsense after cash open. This time I played with them. Amazingly I'm now back up! by $6.  phew....


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, big opening drive lower into my first area, then another lower into the second area...got a little out of both but not the drop into the retest of the second level....got the third bounce into 686...

I've been trying to trade the open more after your comments about that being the best time to trade...

Practice...practice...

CanOz


----------



## yonobarn

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone see that crap by the Boyz on the HSI open!




It's far from scientific, but I was pencilling in for the HSI to open around 19,667 (give or take), as ES was down about 63bps from HSI close to HSI open (especially after HSI went so hard yesterday and there was no follow through in Europe or US overnight).  One way or another they got it there...

Has anyone ever looked into this - whether you can use moves in the ES overnight as a proxy, and trade the HSI open accordingly?  I guess it makes it tough too when your hands are tied 4 minutes before the opening match...


----------



## notting

US futures are swinging like monkeys in trees.
CAC, DAX, FTSE all up now heading for the sea bed!
Draghi on the soap box. 
We need John Kennedy, "Don't talk, *DOOOOO!*"


----------



## CanOz

What an amazing day on the DAX yesterday. Constant buying all session long...

A rare occurrence, one that's got the forums buzzing with questions and theories...

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> What an amazing day on the DAX yesterday. Constant buying all session long...
> 
> A rare occurrence, one that's got the forums buzzing with questions and theories...
> 
> CanOz




Did you fade it trade it or watch it?


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> What an amazing day on the DAX yesterday. Constant buying all session long...
> 
> A rare occurrence, one that's got the forums buzzing with questions and theories...
> 
> CanOz




lemons squeezed all day long...

impotent questions like when does the next series of Archer come out.....

was there a market that didnt go up......cept dx and 30year.....surprise! nah!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> impotent questions like when does the next series of Archer come out.....




Yes very important question. Whats the answer?


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes very important question. Whats the answer?




oh...oh.......like you care........and when you throw up can you get it in the trash can this time?


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Did you fade it trade it or watch it?




Well since i was in another city all day i had to settle for watching it on market replay...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> oh...oh.......like you care.......




Actually I do. I'm a big fan. Nothing like an episode of archer on the lunch break to reset the mind and relax.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually I do. I'm a big fan. Nothing like an episode of archer on the lunch break to reset the mind and relax.




lulz...i shoulda put my post in quotation marks...........he always misses the bin and his enemies....


----------



## Trembling Hand

There seems to be a trail of ants running across my screen!!


----------



## CanOz

Waiting, missed that double bottom...


CanOz


----------



## sinner

No trading today, I'm watching the NASA public stream as Curiosity lands in 15 mins.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> No trading today, I'm watching the NASA public stream as Curiosity lands in 15 mins.




for anyone curious

http://www.nasa.gov/externalflash/mars/curiosity_news3.html


----------



## sinner

Thanks Joules!

3 mins!

http://www.ustream.tv/nasahdtv

Squeeeeee


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> 3 mins!





opcorn:opcorn:

s'all lies i tell ya.....remember capricorn one, capricorn one!


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> 3 mins!




man, i go to the wrong parties......these guys get pretty pumped


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> man, i go to the wrong parties......these guys get pretty pumped




LOL see the hang seng react? Swept 35 points on contact. Did they see martians or something?  

:aliena:


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> man, i go to the wrong parties......these guys get pretty pumped




Childhood dreams coming true for many geeks on that ops desk.

I used to work an ops desk at Foxtel Joules, looks similar to this except the work is soul crushing because who really gives a f*** about Pay Per View and softcore pr0n in the grand scheme of things?

These guys built something together and sent it to *Mars*! If you were watching carefully you could see the various little teams getting pumped as the bit they were working on confirmed it was optimal. "Landing gear deployed successfully" the guys/gals who spent 8 years developing/building the landing gear for this mission creams their pants.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL see the hang seng react? Swept 35 points on contact. Did they see martians or something?
> 
> :aliena:




saw the alien dig of 20 grand .....a shake n bake ? kick the tyres of tiny stops


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually I do. I'm a big fan. Nothing like an episode of archer on the lunch break to reset the mind and relax.




Nobody knows when! 

But probably really really soon if the previous seasons production cycles are anything to go by.

You might like Frisky Dingo and Sealab 2021 if you haven't seen them as Archer is the stylistic progression of those two.


----------



## Trembling Hand

We done on the HSI now?


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> We done on the HSI now?




you mean, no quicky hooks like yesterday.......after lunch.....pacman in slowmo


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> you mean, no quicky hooks like yesterday.......after lunch.....pacman in slowmo




I mean I knew the ses high was in as I was trying to get a short fill on the ask and couldn't get the fill. 

 being a dick for a tic!!


----------



## CanOz

I got in but a bit late...on the Paper Trading account of course...


----------



## CanOz

Talk about the summer doldrums...:sleeping:

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What was with honkers just then? Push hard to the low, then immediately back up to break the swing high, looked like it was going to tank through that low. Europe open I guess?


----------



## Trembling Hand

DAX, gotta look at that


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> DAX, gotta look at that




Straight up, could be another big day...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Straight up, could be another big day...




Oh I'm thinking next up move i'll short, the DAX.  Honkers F knows where that is going into the close


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh I'm thinking next up move i'll short, the DAX.  Honkers F knows where that is going into the close




Watching for pullback into 6945....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh I'm thinking next up move i'll short, the DAX.



More love for that idea on the Z.


----------



## Joules MM1

beautiful

tweet reference to the "reverentially-held" zero hedge


> Fari Hamzei ‏@HamzeiAnalytics
> 
> come on -- ZH is a subcontractor -- sells a lot of our TICKETS ... rofl


----------



## sinner

I have a confession to make, in early Feb I read this post by Tom McClellan (maybe heard of the McClellan Oscillator or Summation Index, very good breadth indices, he is the inventors son AFAIK)

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...ndication_calls_for_big_stock_market_top_now/

and becoming convinced after quantitative research that there was something to it I adapted the time-series into my model. So all the below quoted posts were influenced by Toms genius discovery, which has been profitable all year. Even DAX which looked like it was going to be dragged into Euro hell has paid nicely in the end. 



sinner said:


> Turning quite neutral here personally. If I had to take odds on the next 6 months I'd be betting long, at least in the DAX and SPX.






sinner said:


> I don't like that the $NYSI dropped below -500 but shorter term breadth doesn't look horrible...
> 
> View attachment 47317
> 
> 
> and the useful backtest tool from indexindicators.com provides us with the results for a pretty good swing setup (triggered last night, excludes overlapping signals).
> 
> View attachment 47318



(I was looking at this date to see if Tom McClellans forecast using Eurodollar COT would be correct like previous forecasts...it was)



sinner said:


> Oh, you think it's over already? I think this is only a very short pullback in the Qs and SPY.








Time to cash in some of these chips, but the forecast is pretty clear for more upside so not taking everything off the table yet. My model would have been long but far less biased so without incorporating this time-series into the aggregate.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> and becoming convinced after quantitative research that there was something to it I adapted the time-series into my model.




Welcome to the real analysis's worlds.....


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Welcome to the real analysis's worlds.....




Har har TH, like all my other time-series were not real analysis :

This one is damn accurate forward shifted predictor, better significance than most I've seen, even aggregate scores from Decision Tree Bagging with fancy inputs.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> This one is damn accurate forward shifted predictor, better significance than most I've seen, even aggregate scores from Decision Tree Bagging with fancy inputs.




Some punters around here could do with an understanding of breadth indicators. Time and time again you see some get excited when the XAO has a good run only to step up and get their fingers burnt. A simple understanding of how breadth historically moves would show its only the rarest of rare markets that reward entry on an index going vertical as an ideal entry.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL at the Hang Seng. Someone turned on the opposite switch today!


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Some punters around here could do with an understanding of breadth indicators. Time and time again you see some get excited when the XAO has a good run only to step up and get their fingers burnt. A simple understanding of how breadth historically moves would show its only the rarest of rare markets that reward entry on an index going vertical as an ideal entry.




Yerp, for anyone who requires quantitative verification here are N day returns for the SPY after a close above the 50,2 bollingers.

http://ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/2012/07/30/spy-abnormally-bullish/

Returns generally flat (rather than negative) for the first 30 days after a breakout of this variety as shown in the blue line on the graph. 

Pretty good candidate for a bullish options diagonal spread.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Welcome to the real analysis's worlds.....




More "real analysis's worlds" spotted today on the "reverentially held" Zerohedge

http://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/analysis-concepts/intraday-time-analysis

I'm excited to have seen this today and will probably write some of my own code based on the concept tonight

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/primer-intraday-market-moves


----------



## Joules MM1

hft poll ......increasing cluelessness by asking the wrong questions.....

http://goldstocksforex.com/2012/08/...ency-trading-to-improve-stock-market-pricing/


----------



## tech/a

Joules MM1 said:


> hft poll ......increasing cluelessness by asking the wrong questions.....
> 
> http://goldstocksforex.com/2012/08/...ency-trading-to-improve-stock-market-pricing/




Did you read the comments!??


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> More "real analysis's worlds" spotted today on the "reverentially held" Zerohedge




if the zinspired one was to put "...and here's a cupla my traders showing what i mean" he'd get a tad more cred in the community where waffles mean something.....the trading community

(note, we can't call him  (zee)special one as some football numpty already took it....)


----------



## Joules MM1

tech/a said:


> Did you read the comments!??




thigh slapping.........


----------



## Timmy

Greetings banterers.

Line up of eco releases from China over the next few days:




Times are US EasternDST
Via the Forex Factory Economic Calendar:
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php


----------



## Timmy

Earwig o


----------



## Timmy

Result!





As you were.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/08/how-to-name-your-hedge-fund-most-common.html

chortle


----------



## Timmy

Joules MM1 said:


> http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/08/how-to-name-your-hedge-fund-most-common.html
> 
> chortle



Yep - this is great


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tooo funny this Chinese data!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Tooo funny this Chinese data!!




Woo hoo, got that nice break higher early and got out and then got short in time for that bid smash fest....I wish i could do that every time.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Woo hoo, got that nice break higher early and got out and then got short in time for that bid smash fest....I wish i could do that every time.




Same except my short trade was 2 ticks off the high but on tiny volume because I was *really *worried about the top blowing off... big time!!

Did manage to add a little to it after the push down but wasn't in the mood for hanging on with size after the ride I was taken on on the open....

I was short this.....!!!




Nothing like a 160 point sweep both ways in 1 minute! :22_yikes::silly:


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Tooo funny this Chinese data!!




You're welcome :
.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, thats ballsy...

I usually don't get so keen to reverse, but i just couldn't help it when i saw bids getting hit so hard. Then just after it topped, they really got hit, and the price just hung there...that's when i hit it...a little late.

Practice, practice....

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Timmy said:


> You're welcome :



Now if you really want to be helpful. tell us the way the market will go.  


CanOz said:


> Wow, thats ballsy...




nah dumb.... :goodnight


----------



## Timmy

Trembling Hand said:


> Now if you really want to be helpful. tell us the way the market will go.




Rest assured TH - if I knew ahead of time I would. I'd even PM you first!

Until then I'll just humbly pay attention to the mkt and let it tell me. Though sometimes it lies to me


----------



## CanOz

Today the DAX gapped open to 6980 ish, then after a bit, tested higher and higher towards 7000, finally 7005. I assume this is the locals bidding up the market in a test for buyers. Given that London hasn't opened yet, what are they trying to achieve? Are they trying to bid it up to 7000 to load up on shorts so when London opens they can unload a heap and get an early positive inventory? Whats the logic here? There is not allot of size in it, so I'm just guessing its the locals...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Today the DAX gapped open to 6980 ish, then after a bit, tested higher and higher towards 7000, finally 7005. I assume this is the locals bidding up the market in a test for buyers. Given that London hasn't opened yet, what are they trying to achieve? Are they trying to bid it up to 7000 to load up on shorts so when London opens they can unload a heap and get an early positive inventory? Whats the logic here? There is not allot of size in it, so I'm just guessing its the locals...
> 
> CanOz




churnathon


----------



## CanOz

Expecting a bounce here on the DAX, its on the edge of the abyss..6909 

Didn't like that last data release...

For a thin day its been pretty good.

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Today the DAX gapped open to 6980 ish, then after a bit, tested higher and higher towards 7000, finally 7005. I assume this is the locals bidding up the market in a test for buyers. Given that London hasn't opened yet, what are they trying to achieve? Are they trying to bid it up to 7000 to load up on shorts so when London opens they can unload a heap and get an early positive inventory? Whats the logic here? There is not allot of size in it, so I'm just guessing its the locals...
> 
> CanOz




Who are the "locals"? Domestic German instos as opposed to overseas based institutions? How are their considerations different to overseas ones (aside from the FX effect)...


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Who are the "locals"? Domestic German instos as opposed to overseas based institutions? How are their considerations different to overseas ones (aside from the FX effect)...




Liquidity providers....


----------



## Timmy

*Post Office begins selling mortgages in branches*



> The UK Post Office is taking on high street banks with the introduction of in-branch specialist mortgage advisers.



http://www.finextra.com/News/Fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=23968


Thats cool. What could possibly go wrong? :


----------



## Joules MM1

Timmy said:


> *Post Office begins selling mortgages in branches*
> 
> 
> http://www.finextra.com/News/Fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=23968
> 
> 
> Thats cool. What could possibly go wrong? :




........are they pushing the envelope, T ? 
.....it's not getting your stamp of approval, then?


----------



## Timmy

Dreadful Joules ... even for you 

Speaking of Twitter ... don't know what's going on ... really slow ... 
getting updates on the iPhone quicker than on the desktop client (Tweetdeck)


----------



## Joules MM1

your tweetness is my weakness (thanks, barry!)



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> FWIW our Pac Rim (ex Japan) a-d line is at an all-time high


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Liquidity providers....




Thks.



Timmy said:


> *Post Office begins selling mortgages in branches*
> 
> http://www.finextra.com/News/Fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=23968
> 
> Thats cool. What could possibly go wrong? :




Here's one postal service not doing too well.

http://www.dailyfreeman.com/articles/2012/08/09/news/doc502410992b714784096375.txt


----------



## Joules MM1

cny...trade balance ......? zip down......

edit:


MarketWatch
Bulletin


> China's July trade surplus prints well below forecast, as exports rise 1% vs. expected 8%
> 08/09/2012 11:04:06 PM


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hahah got the HSI on a string today.


----------



## CanOz

Well done, nice bit of patience too...

Back to 60 again...


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Hahah got the HSI on a string today.
> 
> View attachment 48556
> View attachment 48555




Sweet
Thats a lot of ticks for you T/H.
In one trade.


----------



## CanOz

Who says ya can't pick the highs and lows...

Nice job to get a fill at those points though!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Thats a lot of ticks for you T/H.
> In one trade.



That not the best trade today in ticks but,

Markets moving and you have the perfect entry, run with it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz you been looking at the amount of bergs on the Seng today? Strangely the volume is down.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> CanOz you been looking at the amount of bergs on the Seng today? Strangely the volume is down.




Only three showed today, sorry four, but I'm only set at 30 or greater (i.e. there needs to be a minimum of 30 traded)

You're saying there seem to be fewer bergs?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Only three showed today, but I'm only set at 30 or greater.
> 
> You're saying there seem to be fewer bergs?
> 
> CanOz




Nah heaps. Everything I hit just sits there same size!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah heaps. Everything I hit just sits there same size!




Have you got a rough idea of how much size typically gets absorbed? 

I should go through and replay the day (hopefully today or tomorrow) with different settings and get a rough idea of the best size setting to use to pick up the icebergs...I've never really tried to set it up properly on the HSI because of its flittery (new word) nature.

Curious to see what you saw yesterday.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Set on 10, we pick up 16 bergs for the day. That is the inside bid/ask gets hit with size greater than 10 and yet remains the same as it was before the order hit the bid/ask. 

There was a little cluster around the time you asked me about it though....

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## sinner

Hey TH,

Wondering if you wouldn't mind posting a year or two worth of A/D data for the HSI?


----------



## CanOz

What a morning on the HSI...drops like a rock to find a bottom at 20k (20001 to the the tick) and then bounces a little before catching a massive bid back to 20145 in 10 minutes...Sheesh...

This market is just crazy...

CanOz


----------



## Punta

CanOz said:


> What a morning on the HSI
> 
> This market is just crazy...
> 
> CanOz




Love the irrationality of the HSI.  Logged on this evening to find that my algo caught a piece of both those moves - happy days...


----------



## sinner

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/08/12/china-is-running-out-of-money/



> When shops close to avoid predatory officials, we know China’s coffers are almost empty.  And to make matters worse, the country’s financial problems will be harder to solve now that the country’s balance of payments has turned negative.  The net outflow in the second quarter of this year was the first since 1998.  The country’s reserves also dropped in Q2.  We should not be surprised: there was perhaps $110 billion of capital flight during that period, and the gusher outflow looks like it continued in June.  Chinese citizens are losing confidence fast.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Hey TH,
> 
> Wondering if you wouldn't mind posting a year or two worth of A/D data for the HSI?




I've only got it for ASX and US. they pretty much all show the same patterns.


----------



## Trembling Hand

These bots that stabilise indexes suk!!

Rocket scientist go back to NASA :321:


----------



## CanOz

Lots of bergs...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hahah! take that nerds!


----------



## CanOz

LOL, what a downdraft...

No news...?

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> These bots that stabilise indexes suk!!
> 
> Rocket scientist go back to NASA :321:





(will these little critters drown in a sea of red  .......or gulp in a field of gre......:bonk: )
http://s766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/?action=view&current=algaebot2000-1.jpg


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules You long. Cannot figure out what the blue triangles are? buys to open? Buys to close? Sells to open? 

Personally wouldn't be surprised to see this @ 19999 in the arvo ses.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Joules You long. Cannot figure out what the blue triangles are? buys to open? Buys to close? Sells to open?
> 
> Personally wouldn't be surprised to see this @ 19999 in the arvo ses.




bto 

suspect youre right..... a pop down to open second session


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Personally wouldn't be surprised to see this @ 19999 in the arvo ses.




the xjo holding up like a buy and the US overnights dont give a rats......interesting day......


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> bto
> 
> suspect youre right..... a pop down to open second session




EUROoooo is helpin' ya out here.......


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> EUROoooo is helpin' ya out here.......




paint-stripper arvo ......might get kicked in both cahunas = short gold


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> paint-stripper arvo ......might get kicked in both cahunas = short gold




macro v micro......got the entries wrong all day  .......otherwise 

see if we can make min cliff-tip 

http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/hsimicroentrieswrongmacroplayright.jpg


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> macro v micro......got the entries wrong all day  .......otherwise
> 
> see if we can make min cliff-tip




Big statement of the week.

Mark today as IMPORTANT.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Big statement of the week.
> 
> Mark today as IMPORTANT.




ok, ..........and ?


----------



## CanOz

> France Q2 prelim GDP +0.3% vs +0.3% in 2Q12
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz23UqbzToa




Caught a bid after that...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Caught a bid after that...




Actually it was selli9ng. IMO


----------



## white_goodman

can anyone reccommend a good squawk for euro/US sessions

ransquawk, tradethenews, livesquawk?


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it was selli9ng. IMO




still looking to clip that cliff edge....struggling all the way and good reason for that strong drop.......looks like a good call, TH



http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/scaledhsi140812.jpg


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> still looking to clip that cliff edge....struggling all the way and good reason for that strong drop.......looks like a good call, TH




Not sure but look at the volume holding that run up in check. Someone interested in doing some biz.


----------



## Trembling Hand

white_goodman said:


> can anyone reccommend a good squawk for euro/US sessions
> 
> ransquawk, tradethenews, livesquawk?




Don't know about US session but TTN is good for Asia and Euro for me.


----------



## white_goodman

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't know about US session but TTN is good for Asia and Euro for me.




cheers, ill see if i can trial them all see what floats my boat


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Not sure but look at the volume holding that run up in check. Someone interested in doing some biz.
> 
> View attachment 48582




The way I see it


----------



## CanOz

DPOC - Developing Point of Control 20115


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> The way I see it




Tech the way I see it is the dudes that did that volume from 3:30 don't give a toss which way the next 1% move goes.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Tech the way I see it is the dudes that did that volume from 3:30 don't give a toss which way the next 1% move goes.




Exactly - OTFP Other Time Frame Participant...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Big statement of the week.
> 
> Mark today as IMPORTANT.




i'm sorry, we didnt quite catch that........


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> i'm sorry, we didnt quite catch that........




waiting waiting ..... :knightrid


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> waiting waiting ..... :knightrid




Q Elevator music.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Q Elevator music.




LOL!

20047 - VPOC from Monday
20040 - Composite VPOC

This things (HSI) moving like every uptick is painful....


----------



## CanOz

Somebody is certainly enjoying pushing the HSI around today. That's the second violent break...

WTF

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Q Elevator music.




Tech I think you cued the wrong music ,


----------



## CanOz

Now that we've moved back to the composite value area at 20040 on the HSI, i would expect either a choppy afternoon around this area, or a bounce higher towards 20070 - DPOC. The Market is already off 1.3%.

If we break below 20020, then a bounce off 20000....if 20000 doesn't hold then look out below... Next support at 68 and 50, then fresh air until 19900 - 19880.

Lets see how we go!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Now that we've moved back to the composite value area at 20040 on the HSI, i would expect either a choppy afternoon around this area,




Come on Can, think big 



Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it was selli9ng. IMO


----------



## Punta

CanOz said:


> choppy, or a bounce higher
> 
> .. look out below ...  fresh air until 19900 - 19880.
> 
> CanOz




Yep, I'd say you've covered your bases pretty well there ...


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on Can, think big




I am afraid, recalling TH posting "cheap NikkeI shorts" a while back, the day of the high preceding a 1000pt decline.

:goodnight


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> I am afraid, recalling TH posting "cheap NikkeI shorts" a while back, the day of the high preceding a 1000pt decline.
> 
> :goodnight




be very afraid......while being very short

:kiffer:


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone for some cheap JP ¥, .
> View attachment 46873




...literally the last 2 day high for a month.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I am afraid, recalling TH posting "cheap NikkeI shorts" a while back, the day of the high preceding a 1000pt decline.
> 
> :goodnight




Huh? what did I do/say?


----------



## CanOz

DPOC just shifted 10 points down to 20060. Nice head and shoulders pattern too, if that's your thing...

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Huh? what did I do/say?




You posted Apr 27 with a chart implying shorting the Nikkei was cheap (at least that's how I read it), for my own amusement I often track peoples calls, yours coincided with a vicious 1000pt Nikkei decline. All the markets went down, but even the CAC managed a two day high in that decline.


----------



## white_goodman

sinner said:


> You posted Apr 27 with a chart implying shorting the Nikkei was cheap (at least that's how I read it), for my own amusement I often track peoples calls, yours coincided with a vicious 1000pt Nikkei decline. All the markets went down, but even the CAC managed a two day high in that decline.




50% chance of being right


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> You posted Apr 27 with a chart implying shorting the Nikkei was cheap (at least that's how I read it)




I do remember the call but unfortunately I doubt it was for any longer than the week ahead. But hey I'll take the Guru points thanks. ld:


----------



## sinner

Anyone think volatility is cheap as as all f right now? iVolatility has their IVX for SPX and ES running 13.~ with the 1Y low at 12....

Meanwhile:




I'm not bearish but might be time to start buying a few OTM puts and collar up momentum trades on the NYSE open, not game to exit the underlying positions but tightening what I'm expecting a little.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sinner how many different instruments and systems do you trade?


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Anyone think volatility is cheap as as all f right now? iVolatility has their IVX for SPX and ES running 13.~ with the 1Y low at 12....
> 
> Meanwhile:
> 
> View attachment 48610
> 
> 
> I'm not bearish but might be time to start buying a few OTM puts and collar up momentum trades on the NYSE open, not game to exit the underlying positions but tightening what I'm expecting a little.




ops exp thursday coming for US


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Sinner how many different instruments and systems do you trade?




There are seven EOD models/systems which I currently use, usually only one or two are actually running open positions at any given time depending on the volatility regime and trend. After a lot of research I am trying to reduce this down to just one or two systems all together that can handle regimes using options or futures.

Instruments for EOD trading is almost entirely equities and index futs and ETFs. 

Trend following: ASX equities
Momentum: ASX equities and a different momentum system for asset class ETFs (stocks, commodities, currency, credit at the highest possible aggregate levels)

Mean reversion: Basket of international indices.
Machine learning: SPY, QQQ, DAX generally but it can be plugged into most instruments and occasionally I will do that. I might enter on the futs if I miss the close or deem the futs price to be advantageous.
Pairs trading: NYSE/NASDAQ ETFs (I admit this is mean reversion but I'm using a different model for the pairs)
Delta neutral: long straddles in a small basket of NYSE ETFs

I know it sounds like a lot of work, but all the algorithms are very fast and robust, they spit out decision tables one day ahead so basically I am just looking to execute Market on Close orders around the EOD as specified by the program.

I execute with MBTrading for everything except the ASX stuff which goes through Comsec. Size is very dynamic but on average I'm allocating about equally between short term (<5days) and anything longer than that.

As an example, I've been running only machine learning since June and started running some momentum in July.

Also I like to think I'm an intraday gun, so sometimes foolishly play the intraday FOREX (usually AUD or EUR around their respective open) and there are two components of the machine learning system (sentiment and vol) which are provide my daily 'bias' rather than signals directly. I suck at intraday mechanical FOREX but seem to be able to scrape extra pips trading discretionary. I trade breakouts and fades around the hourly highs/lows.

EDIT: I also run the asset class momentum system in my super.


----------



## CanOz

Another warning sign?


----------



## CanOz

Which way will it break? I'm thinking up(probably break down!)


----------



## Punta

sinner said:


> basically I am just looking to execute Market on Close orders around the EOD as specified by the program.




If it's properly mechanical, why not just code a bot that does this for you, and you can log in every so often (from the pool bar) to check how it's getting on?


----------



## sinner

Punta said:


> If it's properly mechanical, why not just code a bot that does this for you, and you can log in every so often (from the pool bar) to check how it's getting on?




My day job is in systems Punta, so I know from personal experience that there is no substitute (at least, that I can afford) for human execution. 

What happens if the algo disconnects or faults at the moment it's supposed to place a trade? Or worse, exit a trade? 

Basically I don't trust the computer to do that part of the job, and prefer to be fully in control there.


----------



## Punta

sinner said:


> My day job is in systems Punta, so I know from personal experience that there is no substitute (at least, that I can afford) for human execution.
> 
> What happens if the algo disconnects or faults at the moment it's supposed to place a trade? Or worse, exit a trade?
> 
> Basically I don't trust the computer to do that part of the job, and prefer to be fully in control there.




Fair enough, it probably comes down to personal comfort.  Personally, I think there's ways around these problems, such as ensuring that you always have stops lurking etc.  

Actually, you should be able to make your system robust to most "conceivable" mishaps.  E.g. you can have your algos only in certain "states".  They do a periodic check on your portfolio, and if it doesn't match the expected state, they start exiting positions, and phoning/emailing/SMSing you.

But yeah, probably comes down to personal preference.


----------



## sinner

Punta said:


> Fair enough, it probably comes down to personal comfort.  Personally, I think there's ways around these problems, such as ensuring that you always have stops lurking etc.




A stop is just a market order. Depending on the market you're trading, and your personal experience of 'black swan' days is usually the factor on how much you trust a standing market order to get you out at the desired time, price and volume. 

I would say stops are trustworthy when the market is functioning fine, but this is precisely the time that I don't need stops!



> Actually, you should be able to make your system robust to most "conceivable" mishaps.  E.g. you can have your algos only in certain "states".  They do a periodic check on your portfolio, and if it doesn't match the expected state, they start exiting positions, and phoning/emailing/SMSing you.
> 
> But yeah, probably comes down to personal preference.




Not to sound rude, but who cares about conceivable mishaps? Those aren't the sort of problems that concern me. It's about being robust to the unexpected and unintended outcomes. My experience is that the only truly robust way of accounting for those is to size your positions properly.

Like I said, I work in systems, so this colours my view somewhat. I know exactly what true reliability is, and know that without a few million in infrastructure I could never hope to provide it. Considering human execution is free and takes about 10-30 mins per day...


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> A stop is just a market order. Depending on the market you're trading, and your personal experience of 'black swan' days is usually the factor on how much you trust a standing market order to get you out at the desired time, price and volume.
> 
> I would say stops are trustworthy when the market is functioning fine, but this is precisely the time that I don't need stops!




Most futs markets don't really have stop orders. IB and most brokers hold them as simulated at market orders.

Far from fail safe. And some exchanges, like Hong Kong you actually haven't even got market orders they are Limit + some amount that I cannot remember.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Most futs markets don't really have stop orders. IB and most brokers hold them as simulated at market orders.
> 
> Far from fail safe. And some exchanges, like Hong Kong you actually haven't even got market orders they are Limit + some amount that I cannot remember.




Exactly. Lock limit moves are another good example, where your stop order simply becomes another order in the queue of people trying to sell into a bidless market. What good is that? You're almost certainly never at the front of the queue.

Never happened to me, but I've imagined it, what happens if you get a margin call on a lock limit move? How can the broker exit your position if you refuse to stump up margin? It can't, best it could do is hedge in options or futs. 

This is the source of the traders term "getting carted out in a bodybag"....lock limit against your margined position.


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> Most futs markets don't really have stop orders. IB and most brokers hold them as simulated at market orders.
> 
> Far from fail safe. And some exchanges, like Hong Kong you actually haven't even got market orders they are Limit + some amount that I cannot remember.




Sure, but if your stop doesn't work because the market is fuggered, a properly written algo will still get you out faster than a human (by re-submitting orders).


----------



## Joules MM1

Punta said:


> Sure, but if your stop doesn't work because the market is fuggered, a properly written algo will still get you out faster than a human (by re-submitting orders).




how is an algo stop any diff to any other stop?


----------



## Joules MM1

Punta said:


> Sure, but if your stop doesn't work because the market is fuggered, a properly written algo will still get you out faster than a human (by re-submitting orders).




if you repeat the stop placement by an algo, regardless of speed, it's no diff to moving the stop as a discretrionary and writing off more cash in the process


----------



## Punta

sinner said:


> without a few million in infrastructure I could never hope to provide it. Considering human execution is free and takes about 10-30 mins per day...




I don't quite get this.  If your algo can't communicate with the exchange, then you the human can't either.  There's no loss of functionality in going to automation.  What's the few mil going to get you?

To be fair though, I was only suggesting it because your systems mostly sound like EOD, which should be particularly easy to code, and easy to check at a glance that everything has been submitted correctly.

I run algos because the trading I do requires decisions/executions faster than I can think and click buttons.  (They also don't get bored waiting for the right intraday patterns.)  So my trading requires automation, and some risk of system failure is unavoidable I guess.


----------



## sinner

Punta said:


> Sure, but if your stop doesn't work because the market is fuggered, a properly written algo will still get you out faster than a human (by re-submitting orders).




Look, no offense, but there is no way you're going to convince me. I work in the field of systems, I'm "academically qualified" and have been working in systems for my entire career. We are talking big systems, which run millions or in some cases billions in business.

*When it comes to system failure, I've seen it all.*

 Here is a post from howardbandy in one of your own threads, which I found myself nodding to as I read it and found myself wanting to paste in this thread right now



> Greetings --
> 
> If you are thinking about having an interface between your signal generation program and your brokers order entry facility, I recommend being very careful. In the US this is often referred to as "automated trading" or "a real-time trading interface", or something like that.
> 
> A few years ago I was a research analyst for a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) company and we had automated trading. We had live personnel at the computers every minute of every day that an order could be generated. We had *duplicate / redundant everything -- computers, power sources, data feeds, etc. We had excellent relationships with our brokers, so that when a trade was entered due to an erroneous tick, we could make a telephone call to the broker and get out of the trade as soon as possible. We tested everything regularly, and needed it more than once.*
> 
> 
> I do recommend that trading systems be formula-based. But I recommend that the orders be placed manually after a person has verified that the trade is OK.
> 
> Thanks,
> Howard




Listen to the man, he knows what he is talking about.


----------



## Punta

Joules MM1 said:


> how is an algo stop any diff to any other stop?




Exactly!


----------



## Punta

sinner said:


> Look, no offense, but there is no way you're going to convince me.




Not trying to mate, just interested to get your thoughts - I'm in the process of trying to "safe up" my algos at the moment, and always good to hear a bit of discussion on it ...


----------



## sinner

Punta said:


> I don't quite get this.  If your algo can't communicate with the exchange, then you the human can't either.  There's no loss of functionality in going to automation.  What's the few mil going to get you?




So if I'm hosting my algorithm on a virtual machine somewhere in NY and the network connection to the datacenter goes down, then what? You can't see how I as the human could manage that scenario, where the algo would fail?

Millions: Having a hosted algorithm automatically means I need a redundant hosted algorithm, redundant network links, redundant computer infrastructure, etc.

Free: Having my program setup the way it is means I can check what needs to be done in one concise page of of information and execute as long as I've got a working internet connection. The program is small and can probably even be run on an iPhone or something if necessary. Total cost of redundant infrastructure in this case is <500 for a netbook and USB 3G dongle.



> To be fair though, I was only suggesting it because your systems mostly sound like EOD, which should be particularly easy to code, and easy to check at a glance that everything has been submitted correctly.




In your mind, it seems the concept of a 

* Trading algorithm
* Risk management algorithm
* Order placement algorithm

Have all been conflated into a single thing. I do all the risk management and order placement myself.


----------



## Punta

sinner said:


> So if I'm hosting my algorithm on a virtual machine somewhere in NY




I was just thinking of running your algos on the same machine that you use for human trading.  That way the hardware side of things is equally reliable, at no extra cost?

I guess I thought from your original response that some of your strategies were purely rule based, and "could" be coded.  Hence the question.  I think it's a good discussion to have actually.  Pros: you can sit on the beach while your computer trades for you.  Cons: your beach excursion might be short lived because your computer empties your trading account...


----------



## sinner

Punta said:


> I was just thinking of running your algos on the same machine that you use for human trading.  That way the hardware side of things is equally reliable, at no extra cost?




So if the algo is running on my home machine and my network goes down I need to somehow get the machine connected to the internet while the algo itself remains in the correct state for all open trades (or write a chunk of code to constantly appraise the state of things and hope the code never breaks or has an edge case I've missed).

It's impossible to model all the potential state changes your system could go through in the event of an unexpected network failure or worse hardware failure. Everything needs to be redundant, including code that recognises the redundancies and kicks in at appropriate times.



> I guess I thought from your original response that some of your strategies were purely rule based, and "could" be coded.  Hence the question.  I think it's a good discussion to have actually.  Pros: you can sit on the beach while your computer trades for you.  Cons: your beach excursion might be short lived because your computer empties your trading account...




All I can say is, being a student at the school of hard knocks doesn't come cheaply. Being at the beach worrying about the robustness of my algo doesn't sound too good to me.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> All I can say is, being a student at the school of hard knocks doesn't come cheaply. Being at the beach worrying about the robustness of my algo doesn't sound too good to me.




tsk tsk.....get an algo that make phone calls to your broker.....he's an algo too, isnt he?


----------



## Trembling Hand

I've seen a few things in my time go wrong ld:. Two of the most common is having to call and close trades over the phone because of lack of internet. The second and more alarming one is exchange problems. I've seen the SFE go down about 5 times. Honkers close because of storms etc.

Only thing you can do is use a different broker and different instrument and try and get a hedge. Never a pleasant experience.


----------



## Punta

sinner said:


> If I lose connection, I have a problem.




Totally agree, massive problem for intraday.  Not so sure it's a problem for EOD.


----------



## sinner

Punta said:


> Totally agree, massive problem for intraday.  Not so sure it's a problem for EOD.




It's the same thing. If my program is managing the state of my trades then it needs to be robust to unexpected failure no matter what. Otherwise I somehow have to reconstruct the precise state and take over the job as soon as I notice failure. The only difference is that I've got a 24h (minus the time it takes me to notice the problem) lead on trying to restore state, intraday you've essentially got no time up your sleeve to get things sorted out.

24h might be enough, might not, you never know in advance because 9/10 the problem isn't any of the ones you conceived of happening.


----------



## Joules MM1

thanks for the HiSsI fit


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> thanks for the HiSsI fit




LOL the amount of time i nearl speeeeeewweed that up. hahaha luv it!!

More to come. IMO


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL the amount of time i nearl speeeeeewweed that up. hahaha luv it!!
> 
> More to come. IMO




suss youre right.....i'm closed now but it's clearly not a buying low, imo


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> suss youre right.....i'm closed now but it's clearly not a buying low, imo




Not too sure now. It might hold for today without the DAX getting funky. I just did buy. Stop at BE......


----------



## Trembling Hand

:emp:

:grenade:


----------



## Trembling Hand

haha

The milky bars are on me,


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> haha
> 
> The milky bars are on me




yeah, second mouse got the poisen cheese.......oh, is that you old: ) minus the hair ?


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> yeah, second mouse got the poisen cheese.......




oh, that's not happiness to see me......


----------



## CanOz

Dax wanting to test the LOD again i think...Lots to be said for only taking trades back towards value!

Keeps me out of trouble.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

This value area chop is annoying....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> This value area chop is annoying....




Keep an eye on China and the Kospi, pulling Honkers down,


----------



## skc

Is it conceivable that China's market stays low, commodity prices fall a bit lower than current levels, AND the Australian market moves higher?

Australia didn't always ride on the back of the mining boom...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Aussie dollar doing a good impression of a lead balloon today. ASX doing the opposite.


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> Aussie dollar doing a good impression of a lead balloon today.




Another 20c drop and i would be happy


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, whats with the HSI getting so excited

German PPI?


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Hmmm, whats with the HSI getting so excited
> 
> German PPI?




how hard is the bid chewing the ask on the dax, Can ?


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> how hard is the bid chewing the ask on the dax, Can ?




Pretty darn hard! Didn't like that last high at all! Returned to value quick smart, my candles look like HA candles!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Pretty darn hard! Didn't like that last high at all! Returned to value quick smart!
> 
> CanOz




yeah, not sure who's waiting on whom......i'm selling more gold right now......maybe the bid needs to soak up across most indecies today.....30p range on the dax!


----------



## CanOz

Big double top at 7032 now...

I hope it rolls over and dies...i just hate this bull market!

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Big double top at 7032 now...
> 
> I hope it rolls over and dies...i just hate this bull market!
> 
> CanOz




Bull market never dies when people hate it. It is always loved to death.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Bull market never dies when people hate it. It is always loved to death.




Yeah, having a bit of fun at that SKC, they've been calling it the most hated bull market in history on the bloomy!


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Big double top at 7032 now...
> 
> I hope it rolls over and dies...i just hate this bull market!
> 
> CanOz




Don't worry, oil's rising.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, the HSI looks a bit sick this morning...

Housing data or something? 

At one stage the market dropped like 40 points through the thin under 20010

Nice bounce though!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

China stocks continue to get hammered, meanwhile the REITs are still standing.





I wanted to display this chart differently but had trouble finding good instruments to use so had to settle for the ETFs I could find.


----------



## sinner

I just ate some serious **** on the AUD, wtfever that was! Goodbye August!


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I just ate some serious **** on the AUD, wtfever that was! Goodbye August!




Euro debt talks. Very choppy choppy.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I just ate some serious **** on the AUD, wtfever that was! Goodbye August!




But it was only 26 pips


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Euro debt talks. Very choppy choppy.....






> ECB may set limits on yields by buying unlimited amounts of bonds, according to reports
> Briefing Note:  Draghi received some support from Germany's Merkel earlier in the month, but it is notable that the Bundesbank remains against ECB action. The ECB meeting is set for September 6th.  As a reminder, during the last meeting, ECB President Draghi fell short of hopes/expectations for further action from the ECB to support markets. While Draghi reiterated that the ECB stands ready to act, but no definitive actions have been taken>
> 
> Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...Briefing.aspx?CustomPageId=3734#ixzz2450nNxs8




CanOz


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> But it was only 26 pips




Been a pretty crappy month with the holidays, and I'm just so smart at sizing like I picked the perfect price aren't I


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Been a pretty crappy month with the holidays, and I'm just so smart at sizing like I picked the perfect price aren't I




As was recently pointed out to me after a crap period,

"onto the next 1000 trades"

Here they are,


----------



## CanOz

TH, that's quite an impressive recovery there...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> TH, that's quite an impressive recovery there...




Nah its back to "normal" after going a bit tilt-ish after stepping up size.


----------



## sinner

Har, I dunno what's going on, but this time I was ready to get the f*** out of the way and sit tight. Didn't expect up but when I saw that small breakdown at 40 get slammed I had stops in place. Caught that last break from 45 to 55 just now on normal size.


----------



## CanOz

HSI - what a market...opens and drops 200 pts then comes back to test the HOD, all in less than an hour...

Unreal...never ceases to amaze me.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> HSI - what a market...opens and drops 200 pts then comes back to test the HOD, all in less than an hour...
> 
> Unreal...never ceases to amaze me.
> 
> CanOz




Real battle going on as I pointed out last week. That opening 15 min was the highest vol 15 min bar in a long time. Hard to a get position and hang on when they are hitting out so big and hard!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Real battle going on as I pointed out last week. That open 15 min was the highest vol 15 min bar in a long time. Hard to a get position and hang on when they are hitting out so big and hard!




Yeah i guess the drive was back to the high volume open, not the high. Seems bent on establishing value here. A ton of bergs around today too.

CanOz


----------



## avion

TH, can you give us your view what this battle is about... Markets have been in this weak bull, narrow range for more than a week, as if the big boys are waiting for something, just sitting there on the fence waiting and contemplating which way to jump. Do you think it's still the Europe? Supposed anticipated monetary easing which nobody is sure yet it's coming and if it does is it going to make any differrence... Or something else...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> TH, can you give us your view what this battle is about... Markets have been in this weak bull, narrow range for more than a week, as if the big boys are waiting for something, just sitting there on the fence waiting and contemplating which way to jump. Do you think it's still the Europe? Supposed anticipated monetary easing which nobody is sure yet it's coming and if it does is it going to make any differrence... Or something else...




Yeah, I've been wondering this too, its like the Asian markets want to sell off and price in the worst here while there is a bullish element leftover from the US.

Actually right now, the US markets are driving the global markets, without the US the global index would be down.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

The value area at 20092 seems like it wants to drop again...

I had planned on trading my live account today, but i just can't get a feel for who is in control...one minute it the buyers hit the book and you think its a good time to enter a long at this level, then the sellers slam it back into submission, there seems to be no desire to trade back to value. The DPOC keeps shifting. Time to stand aside and stay on the sim...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> TH, can you give us your view what this battle is about... Markets have been in this weak bull, narrow range for more than a week, as if the big boys are waiting for something.




Volume on the HSI has been good for a non roll period. Some 15 min bars have had huge range. They are not standing around waiting for anything. They never are. They are just not pushing in the same direction.


----------



## CanOz

LOL @ the HSI... guess someone got sick of hanging around 20090!


----------



## avion

Banging heads period then... :twak:  :burn:


----------



## CanOz

I'm setup for the MHI now, so i may try it later...Trade the mini for a while


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I'm setup for the MHI now, so i may try it later...Trade the mini for a while




Good idea. You can trade two contracts and play properly while getting confidence in your method.


----------



## avion

Nothing like placing real cash on the line Can. I am still fighting emotions deamons... :bigun2:
Best of luck with it. MHI is a good idea.


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Nothing like placing real cash on the line Can. I am still fighting emotions deamons... :bigun2:
> Best of luck with it. MHI is a good idea.




So true...when i come back at this fulltime i intend on stashing away enough capital so 1 bad day on the HSI doesn't destroy my spirit...i figure .5m should do!

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Anyone feel like 20000 after lunch?


----------



## CanOz

This is intense selling pressure...very difficult to fade this...


----------



## CanOz

Well igot beaten up a little on that downdraft around 20k but i made a bunch back on the bounce. I'm down 2000 HKD for the day, 1100 goes to the broker...

The part I'm happiest about is that i got back into it again and made some back. Just focus on the trades and not the P&L...

CanOz


----------



## avion

This is what the fear looks like... (the trade is live on dax, 1 car, sorry for the bad pic...)


----------



## CanOz

1 car = 1 contract??

So you were long and got stopped out?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> So you were long and got stopped out?




 I'd imagine.


----------



## CanOz

I reckon the DAX might tag 7100...


----------



## avion

I meant 1 contract.

Nope, i closed. Yes i do move stops but not straight away... Just chicken, that's all.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Howz this for a day!! First 5 contracts I was up 150 ticks next 158 contracts I've lost 114. LOL I'm a gun!!


----------



## avion

Nah mate, i am a bigger gun, here is another one...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Nah mate, i am a bigger gun, here is another one...
> View attachment 48678




Another long, looked like a sweet entry what happened that time?


----------



## avion

That's what two years of losing does to your mind Can. I will take me long time to crawl out of that hole. I've tried sim similar to you but it never did anything for me, ie no emotions. So decision was made to go with real cash knowing well that i will lose or shall i say pay for TH holiday two years in a row 
I am working on it, i am working on it...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> That's what two years of losing does to your mind Can. I will take me long time to crawl out of that hole. I've tried sim similar to you but it never did anything for me, ie no emotions. So decision was made to go with real cash knowing well that i will lose or shall i say pay for TH holiday two years in a row
> I am working on it, i am working on it...




Yeah i can relate...trading is a mind f***.

You know we all have our issues, mine is hanging on too long...i need to trade with at least 3 contracts, 1 for a quick profit, the next for 1r and then a runner. Otherwise i'll just hold the one contract for too long and then it comes back to take me out at even.

If i can't trade 3 then i won't bother. There is allot to be said for trading size. If i can trade 8 DAX then i can take 5 or 6 off at 5 ticks, then another couple at 10 then leave a runner. Does wonders for the win rate. You need to be confident of the trade though. Usually trading at my levels i can get 5 ticks 75% of the time or better.

CanOz


----------



## avion

Damn, dax is moving nicely but i feel spent, been trading all day...

Are you riding this Can?


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Damn, dax is moving nicely but i feel spent, been trading all day...
> 
> Are you riding this Can?




Only on the IB paper account. long at 7064.5


----------



## CanOz

When i come back at this, I'm starting with 100k and nothing less. Its pointless to try and trade small IMO, otherwise I need a DAX mini.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> When i come back at this, I'm starting with 100k and nothing less. Its pointless to try and trade small IMO, otherwise I need a DAX mini.
> 
> CanOz




Aw I don't know?

Biggest I trade is 3 contracts.

How much you want or think you'll make a month?
I'm happy with 5-8k--- £

Oh and the Dax hasn't done a lot since open--- if trend trading---


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Aw I don't know?
> 
> Biggest I trade is 3 contracts.
> 
> How much you want or think you'll make a month?
> I'm happy with 5-8k--- £
> 
> Oh and the Dax hasn't done a lot since open--- if trend trading---




Honestly Tech, its 1000 times easier to range trade...as you know ranges occur much more than trends.

Its not the money i want to make, but its much easier to take a few ticks off with several contracts and then try and get a free ride.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Honestly Tech, its 1000 times easier to range trade...as you know ranges occur much more than trends.
> 
> Its not the money i want to make, but its much easier to take a few ticks off with several contracts and then try and get a free ride.
> 
> CanOz




Exactly what I do.
Several contract won't cost you 100 k margin.


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Nah mate, i am a bigger gun, here is another one...
> View attachment 48678




So what was your target and stop when you entered and what is your "normal" win rate over 100 trades?


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Exactly what I do.
> Several contract won't cost you 100 k margin.





No, but i want to trade 8 * 8000 Eur = 68k. So i round up and risk (1%) 1000 EUR on each trade. 8 x 12.5 x 10 ticks = 1000 EUR.

CanOz


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> So what was your target and stop when you entered and what is your "normal" win rate over 100 trades?




I enter with bracket orders, my target is 8 points or 16 ticks on dax and 40 ticks on hsi from memory (i am at work). I move my targets depending on setup but then all of a sudden this gremlin straight out of Spielberg movie except much bigger and taller then me, with big nose, big ears, green and mean starts running towards me and the only way i can make him dissapear is by closing my order. I swear it works! I do it many times a day...

That's why i still hold full time job so i can pay for your next holiday TH.


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> all of a sudden this gremlin




Its no gremlin mate its a complete lack of positive expectancy record. Doing it once or twice every 20 or so trades is just one of the small mistakes that discretionary traders make. But doing constantly is just as bad as pulling stops. Ultimately it will end in failure.

If your plan was tested and you knew how to make the numbers work over 100 trades then bailing on a good entry that took no heat wouldn't even come into consideration.

Here is what I do when the feeling of wanting to spew up an entry starts wrecking my stats;

So you enter with a bracket order that has a stop 8 ticks below entry.

1. First thing I do is take note how many ticks below the last low my stop is.  In this case 7 ticks below the last low.

*2. Next thing is take note how long till the current bar is complete.*

3. Next then just concentrate on relaxing with breathing correctly and trying to keep the heart rate down.

4. *Once the first bar is complete* see if it had a lower low than the last bar. If it did, which this trade did, move your stop up by that amount, 1 tick.

5. Next thing is take note how long till the next bar is complete.

6. Next then just concentrate on relaxing with breathing correctly and trying to keep the heart rate down. Until the bar completes.

7. Once the second bar is complet see if it had a lower low than the last bar. If it did move your stop up by that amount.

etc etc until either you target is hit or your *reduced* stop is hit. The idea is to manage your stop not your target. Use your performance anxiety to reduce your average size loss (stop) which is far better trading rather than reducing your average win size which is an absolute certainty to failure.


----------



## 5oclock

Good post TH !


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL at the HHI.HK

Stops sweep much???!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

She's wild and wooly on the Seng today, even the arb bots cannot keep up!! 

Index in yellow,


----------



## CanOz

This is looking like we could take out the bottom of the range today....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> This is looking like we could take out the bottom of the range today....




Chinas PMI tomorrow will probably be the time to take it out if the data follows the last few months down.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Chinas PMI tomorrow will probably be the time to take it out if the data follows the last few months down.




Yup, good point...


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Its no gremlin mate its a complete lack of positive expectancy record.




Correct, i have negative expectancy, hence i am loosing but i am telling you it WAS HIM:



HSI is boring...


----------



## CanOz

M8 - that was a nice break!! Was that you leaning on it TH?

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

We could take out the low today

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> We could take out the low today
> 
> CanOz




Bid Bots!!!!

:aufreg:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Bid Bots!!!!
> 
> :aufreg:




yeah, what a grind!:chainsaw:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> yeah, what a grind!:chainsaw:




If I could pick up my screens I'd do this,

c:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> If I could pick up my screens I'd do this,
> 
> c:




Good thing they're super-bolted down!

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Well, the low got smashed hey! Didn't expect it to happen that way lol!!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

helmets, popcorn.....

12:30pm 	CNY 	HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI


----------



## CanOz

corn::cowboy:

Strapped in...


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> corn::cowboy:
> 
> Strapped in...




So what's the plan? What are the what-if's?


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> So what's the plan? What are the what-if's?




LOL! I've got zero plans....got a bloody 1 year old running around (not mine) and my wife and her mother here. I can't even hear myself think!

When things settle down i may take a trade but tis environment is hardly conducive to winning trades!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

so, anyways......next

5:30pm 	EUR 	

German Flash Manufacturing PMI


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> so, anyways......next
> 
> 5:30pm 	EUR
> 
> German Flash Manufacturing PMI




LOL! Yeah not much of a move this time...Back to the value area for now....


----------



## CanOz

:sleeping:

This value area action can be so mind numbing...but if i go do something else I'll miss a move, happens every time!

TH, what do you do during these choppy periods?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Come on, someone tell me that there isn't a BIG battle going on on the Seng!!??


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on, someone tell me that there isn't a BIG battle going on on the Seng!!??




I wish I could comment....out of town...am I missing something??


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I wish I could comment....out of town...am I missing something??




Same thing since my comment on the 14th. Two bots going hammer 'n' tongs at each other, sell bot has the edge so far.... 



Trembling Hand said:


> Big statement of the week.
> 
> Mark today as IMPORTANT.






Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it was selli9ng. IMO


----------



## CanOz

That's a near perfect flag!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> That's a near perfect flag!




That must be a T/A thing as i have no idea what that is. really


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> That must be a T/A thing as i have no idea what that is. really





Lol! No worries, but a pretty impressive consolidation for the HSI nonetheless!


----------



## CanOz

Whoa, but of a nasty Lag/Spread between the HSI and MHI today...


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Same thing since my comment on the 14th. Two bots going hammer 'n' tongs at each other, sell bot has the edge so far....





Thanks for the interesting observation TH. Let's see how it develops...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Vicious action on the Seng and China.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Vicious action on the Seng and China.




that's the Kholer, Potts and Greenwood hft......


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> Vicious action on the Seng and China.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 48743




Samsung Vs Apple
East vs West Mentality.
Go Apple, as if they are not knock offs.  Gimmie a break.
Good ruling, about time.


----------



## boofis

Nice move short ES on open, 15 ticks to start the sesh.


----------



## CanOz

That was a nice move on Honkers!


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> That was a nice move on Honkers!




Did you get on board for the move Can?


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> Did you get on board for the move Can?




Yeah, actually caught half of it. Not a bad run since i went live on the mini and the FESX. I'm actually profitable on my last week of trading...


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> Yeah, actually caught half of it. Not a bad run since i went live on the mini and the FESX. I'm actually profitable on my last week of trading...




Goood stuff, next thousand trades underway! Market profile + chart + DOM what you're happy with?


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> Goood stuff, next thousand trades underway! Market profile + chart + DOM what you're happy with?




Yeah, really Volume Profile to structure the market, identify some potential rejection/acceptance areas and the volume footprint/ladder and DOM to enter the trades. 

I'm happy with this combination and i think i can apply this method to whatever market i want to trade. I would just need some time on Sim to setup the trade size. I'll continue to trade on SIM from my new office when i have time just to keep me interested and my stuff up to date. But i won't be at this full-time again for 14-24 months.

Good luck to you mate!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

so, how ya liking ya sushi so far ?


----------



## boofis

:dunno:
Where's all the action gone on the ES? Tick charts are moving slower than my pretend equity curve


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> :dunno:
> Where's all the action gone on the ES? Tick charts are moving slower than my pretend equity curve




From yahoo...







> . Markets have slipped into a late-summer lull. Indexes have barely budged amid some of thinnest trading days this year. After three days of minuscule moves, the S&P 500 index is down less than one point for the week.
> 
> Just over 10 billion shares have been traded on the New York Stock Exchange over the past four sessions, the slowest stretch since the last four days of 2011. One measure of stock-market volatility, the Vix, recently sank to a five-year low.




CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

boofis said:


> :dunno:
> Where's all the action gone on the ES? Tick charts are moving slower than my pretend equity curve


----------



## Trembling Hand

I :blover: the HSI!!


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> I :blover: the HSI!!




Moved so fast... You got in full size TH judging by the size of your grin!?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Moved so fast...




235 ticks in 4 seconds! Now thats a move!!



avion said:


> You got in full size TH judging by the size of your grin!?




Nah not the down move but the spring back up. Now playing old school scalping. Hasn't been like this for years.


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> 235 ticks in 4 seconds! Now thats a move!!
> 
> 
> 
> Nah not the down move but the spring back up. Now playing old school scalping. Hasn't been like this for years.





Spring back happened in less than a second!!!! You did not have any limit orders waiting did you? You just fired... Amazing!

I agree, totally different character market today.


----------



## skc

Haven't seen this volatility for weeks...

Stocks are all over the shop...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Mark today as IMPORTANT.




Bulls don't complain about not being given the heads-up....





Just sayin'


----------



## CanOz

You Don't get too many calls like that, at least a temporary top!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

...thanks, Ben......free walk-away trade......nice


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> ...thanks, Ben......free walk-away trade......nice




What happened? Can I see a chart? I'm in the dark...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> What happened? Can I see a chart? I'm in the dark...




spx cash opens up hits 1410.5 ish ......gets str down to 1399.5ish ......i was short dax......boohooyootee

was a set-up for a walk away trade for the long weekend.....standard fair


----------



## Joules MM1

lol.....whipper snipper gold......crikey


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> spx cash opens up hits 1410.5 ish ......gets str down to 1399.5ish ......i was short dax......boohooyootee
> 
> was a set-up for a walk away trade for the long weekend.....standard fair




Lol, enjoy yer weekend!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Lol, enjoy yer weekend!




sorry chap.....lots on here.....this is the cash


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Bulls don't complain about not being given the heads-up....
> 
> View attachment 48774
> 
> 
> Just sayin'




Just sayin', picked the top again :

When TH says "careful boys", I start digging the foxhole.

What did Joules say again? Be afraid, while being very short?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Euro is in a hurry to somewhere for sleepy old Asian session.


----------



## avion

I am not receiving DAX index data trough IB, does anyone else have same problem?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> I am not receiving DAX index data trough IB, does anyone else have same problem?



Fine here.


----------



## avion

Restarted TWS, fine now. Thanks.


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Restarted TWS, fine now. Thanks.




You can also click on TWS then press "Ctrl" "Alt" and "f" to reset all data connections. Quicker than re-starting TWS.


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> You can also click on TWS then press "Ctrl" "Alt" and "f" to reset all data connections. Quicker than re-starting TWS.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Looks like the world is coming to an end again...........


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Looks like the world is coming to an end again...........
> 
> View attachment 48839




23thrd December evidently.
Get short!!


----------



## CanOz

I'm lovin' it!!!


----------



## CanOz

Interesting how the Asian markets didn't respond as well to the news out of Europe. 

Someone was looking for the definition of sterilized in regards to the ECBs actions...

"The bond purchasing plan is said to be "fully sterilized" meaning that all liquidity injected into the financial markets will also be taken out of the markets elsewhere." 

The US housing index, as well as the equity indexes are traveling quite well. Asia is still struggling. China needs to come to the party somehow....perhaps they'll wait until the leadership change to do anything big on stimulus. 

I feel a little short term divergence on the Asians compared to the Europe and the US.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I feel a little short term divergence on the Asians compared to the Europe and the US.
> CanOz




A little!! 




China in blue.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kospi opens up 2.5%. LOL squeeze much?!

Oil last night looks suspiciously unperturbed by Euro news and new US jobs? How is it so?


----------



## Joules MM1

who stole the ant-rid ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> who stole the ant-rid ?




Joules another reason why you should pay for good data....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ya gotta admire those hedgies that just take on 1000s of contracts while been sold into continually for the first 30 min. Then to just push harder and get all the gap fillers off side. 






Maybe I should ask to get my size increased to play as well. Reckon it probably takes only 10,000 contract pos!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

China up 4 %. they love their road projects!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...plan-to-build-new-roads-to-boost-economy.html


----------



## tech/a

Im in Civil Construction and Id love their Road works!
Even .001% of them


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> China up 4 %. they love their road projects!




Then why did we just retraced all the way and printed a new low?! (Along with my week's P&L  )

Big divergence between the ASX and the China market today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Then why did we just retraced all the way and printed a new low?! (Along with my week's P&L  )
> 
> Big divergence between the ASX and the China market today.




Yep, see my post in the XJO thread. Gap fills win one out of 10 markets.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Then why did we just retraced all the way and printed a new low?! (Along with my week's P&L  )
> 
> Big divergence between the ASX and the China market today.




Shake out the longs???

Maybe the close will tell?


----------



## Punta

skc said:


> Big divergence between the ASX and the China market today.




Yeah I pulled my pairs trading algo for HSI/SPI today.  Thank fark!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> China up 4 %. they love their road projects!




Over 5% now!


----------



## avion

With the iron ore bubble burst the aussie is looking a bit shaky...., your thoughts gents?





"The high dollar is bedevilling economic management.

Normally when resource prices climb, the dollar climbs to spread some of the benefits (via lower import prices) and move labour and capital away from competing trade-exposed industries (by making them less competitive).

When resource prices slide, the opposite is supposed to happen. The lower dollar is supposed to spread the pain via higher import prices and make previously uncompetitive trade-exposed industries competitive again.

That's the theory. This time, the Aussie has stayed resolutely high in defiance of convention. Since July 1, the iron ore price has slid from $US127 a tonne to less than $US87. The Aussie remains about where it was on July 1, at a touch about US102 ¢ (although, in the meantime, it had climbed as high as US105 ¢). Not only is Australia being denied the government spending shock absorber, it is also being denied the exchange rate shock absorber.

It's been happening because foreigners love our high interest rates and our triple-A credit rating. McKibbin is among those urging the RBA to buy foreign assets with Australian dollars in order to nudge the Aussie down, although there were signs emerging this week that it might not need to bother.

Foreign buying of Australian government bonds fell to its lowest point in three years in the June quarter. The proportion held by foreigners slipped from 79 per cent to 77.5 per cent. Although the iron ore slide itself hasn't hurt the dollar, if foreigners start to believe it will, they could desert it en masse, leaving little holding it up.

Brian Redican of Macquarie Group says it could be the Aussie's ''Wile E. Coyote moment''.

''What we are referring to here is the well-known cartoon character who, when he's chasing the Road Runner, frequently runs off the edge of a cliff,'' he wrote to clients.

''Initially, at least, he doesn't fall. His legs are still running as if he is on land and he remains suspended in midair. But then he looks down and realises that there is nothing supporting him and it is only then that he succumbs to the forces of gravity and plunges towards the valley floor.''

On Thursday, the chief economist at AMP Capital, Shane Oliver, spoke of an US80 ¢ dollar. He said, if needed, it would fall to US60 ¢.

Full article: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...turns-off-swans-money-tap-20120907-25kb7.html


----------



## notting

avion said:


> With the iron ore bubble burst the aussie is looking a bit shaky...., your thoughts gents?
> 
> Normally when resource prices climb, the dollar climbs to spread some of the benefits (via lower import prices) and move labour and capital away from competing trade-exposed industries (by making them less competitive).
> 
> When resource prices slide, the opposite is supposed to happen. The lower dollar is supposed to spread the pain via higher import prices and make previously uncompetitive trade-exposed industries competitive again.
> 
> It's been happening because foreigners love our high interest rates and our triple-A credit rating.




Seems to be  contradicting itself.
The later is the value maker.
When we stop making so much money, interest rates will come off and so will the $.


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> Ya gotta admire those hedgies that just take on 1000s of contracts while been sold into continually for the first 30 min. Then to just push harder and get all the gap fillers off side.
> 
> View attachment 48870
> 
> View attachment 48871
> 
> 
> Maybe I should ask to get my size increased to play as well. Reckon it probably takes only 10,000 contract pos!!




Haha, what'd the risk manager say about a 10,000 contract pos?!


----------



## Punta

The HSI is going up again?!  Are they on crack?  If I were a discretionary directional trader, I would be betting that puppy will see a bit of a draw back from Friday.  Mind you, if I were a discretionary directional trader, I would probably be broke, so we'll see ...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sell bot turned on the HSI. Chance of it winning? :bad:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Sell bot turned on the HSI. Chance of it winning? :bad:




Some nice size hitting the offer just then....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Some nice size hitting the offer just then....



Yeah some of them mine 

EDIT offers that is


----------



## Trembling Hand

China has a bit of a hangover from Fridays 5% up party. Been going straight down since open. -1.5%


----------



## avion

EDIT?


----------



## Punta

HSI thinking better of that pullback??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Good day to go max size all day.

Well not good for the heart thou!!


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> Good day to go max size all day.




That would be two contracts for me then


----------



## Trembling Hand

Punta said:


> That would be two contracts for me then




Gee its hard to trade big moves like this when you are almost making binary decisions. Much better to be able to let one go every few minutes rather than just being in or out.

Having said that I'd my P&L would be off the charts had I not spewed up the long I got into at 3:22 for a few ticks!!


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee its hard to trade big moves like this when you are almost making binary decisions. Much better to be able to let one go every few minutes rather than just being in or out.




I'm binary all the way at the moment mate.  Hard to backtest the impact of increasing/decreasing size mid-trade.


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> my P&L would be off the charts had I not spewed up the long I got into at 3:22 for a few ticks!!




Guttored!

This is one of the reasons I couldn't do discretionary.  Not only sweating the losses, but ruing the might-have-beens.  I'd lose sleep.

To be fair, not much sign it was going to go this nuts??


----------



## Punta

Trembling Hand said:


> Having said that I'd my P&L would be off the charts had I not spewed up the long I got into at 3:22 for a few ticks!!




I would have thought you might have got your fade on at 16:37 anyway??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Punta said:


> I would have thought you might have got your fade on at 16:37 anyway??




Nah mate I *mostly *played that one long, did give too much back on the break down @ 5:30.

Just another day of shouldas, couldof and what the F was I thinking, add it to other 3000 days of feeling sh!te after a day of trading!!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah mate I *mostly *played that one long, did give too much back on the break down @ 5:30.
> 
> Just another day of shouldas, couldof and what the F was I thinking, add it to other 3000 days of feeling sh!te after a day of trading!!





Why do you do it if you feel ****e after it?
Last time I felt like that I was boxing!
Didn't like hurting people.
Stopped----


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Why do you do it if you feel ****e after it?




Makes you wonder doesn't it? But its nowhere near as bad as having to look at one of these things twice a day.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Makes you wonder doesn't it? But its nowhere near as bad as having to look at one of these things twice a day.
> 
> View attachment 48935




That's the single biggest motivator for me to be successful at this one day....freedom.


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> That's the single biggest motivator for me to be successful at this one day....freedom.




I've found freedom is something you take.
You may think you earn it but in my
Experience if you don't own it ( freedom )
You won't make or enjoy it.

You can have freedom when ever you choose it!!
Regardless of what you do in life.

You get to a point where you can have
All the freedom you want but choose that
Which you take.

I get the guilts when I take mine.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> ...freedom.




Probably an easier path is some smart planing towards a business.

IMO


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Probably an easier path is some smart planing towards a business.
> 
> IMO




Not so sure about that.
Unless your business is big enough to support you
The silent partner.
Freedom is a distant dream!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Probably an easier path is some smart planing towards a business.
> 
> IMO





Motivator, the vision. Smart planning is part of a strategy.

Vision - mission - strategy - plan


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Not so sure about that.
> Unless your business is big enough to support you
> The silent partner.
> Freedom is a distant dream!




Who knows really but the probability of success as a fulltime trader long term is grim.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Who knows really but the probability of success as a fulltime trader long term is grim.




Yup, totally agree. Slim.

I'm positive that's why even many successful traders eventually end up with some kind of sideline. Writing a book or three, a website, trading room.

It's not just because they're all great people and they want to share....it's another income stream.

Anyway, it's for another thread, but nice diversion.

Good luck today folks!

CanOz


----------



## artist

Quote Originally Posted by Trembling Hand View Post
Who knows really but the probability of success as a fulltime trader long term is grim.


Yup, totally agree. Slim.

TH ? CanOz ? Why do you conclude this?


----------



## Joules MM1

artist said:


> (How)Why do you conclude this?




most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and wont have enough money to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and wont have enough money to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......




the post i answered had a question that started with why not how

i stuck in the word "how"

i think that's pretty clear

(  per the email request )


----------



## Joules MM1

s'all about focus......what one is focused on.....what matters and what doesnt.......that's the difference.....some can fly a plane stick/rudder some have to have lots of dials or they get stuck and even then they get caught up on an idea and can't let go.......


----------



## artist

Joules MM1 said:


> the post i answered had a question that started with why not how
> 
> i stuck in the word "how"
> 
> i think that's pretty clear
> 
> (  per the email request )




It has been established previously in this forum that editing and altering another member's post is unacceptable. If you have a point to make, take the time to express it in a separate post, not by presuming to alter, much less "correct" (as per your response to my Private Message to you), what someone else wrote or how that was expressed.


----------



## Joules MM1

artist said:


> It has been established previously in this forum that editing and altering another member's post is unacceptable. If you have a point to make, take the time to express it in a separate post, not by presuming to alter, much less "correct" (as per your response to my Private Message to you), what someone else wrote or how that was expressed.




yep, got it, thanks


----------



## avion

Joules MM1 said:


> most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and wont have enough money to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......




Joules, very true but the statement from was from TH about long term carrer as a trader, ie 'looking grim'. TH is very much so beyond that particular hurdle, so yes i am looking for more explanation/clarification as to why it would be not viable in the long term or why is it looking 'grim' expecially for someone with consistent profitablility. TH over to you?


----------



## tech/a

Joules MM1 said:


> most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and *wont have enough money *to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......




With trading as s business like most businesses.
*undercapitalisation* will be the main downfall.

On the flip side with consistent profit and good 
capitalisation then you have just as much chance
of continued success as any business.

If the "business" alters significantly then 
adaptation is required if you cannot successfully
adapt then failure is not far away.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Who knows really but the probability of success as a fulltime trader long term is grim.




Hey TH ......  

You talking literally(financially) here, or referring to the physical stress/toll associated when trading with size:horse: :rippergun


Just curious, especially after your recent "ticker flicker"

Cheers.


----------



## Joules MM1

german court decision.....pos buying......


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> If the "business" alters significantly then
> adaptation is required if you cannot successfully
> adapt then failure is not far away.






avion said:


> Joules, very true but the statement from was from TH about long term carrer as a trader, ie 'looking grim'. TH is very much so beyond that particular hurdle, so yes i am looking for more explanation/clarification as to why it would be not viable in the long term or why is it looking 'grim' expecially for someone with consistent profitablility. TH over to you?




My point is about consistent profitability. Since starting what is scarily over 10 years ago I've been here,
2001-2004 idiot punta
2005-2006 Stock/CFD/FX trader with a "rough" discretionary system profiting from an early bull market
2006-2008 SPI scalper trading smallish lots with lots of success
2009- early 2010 Struggling SPI trader making 40% of previous years as a percentage of capital.
2010 - NOW nuts HSI trader trying to increase my size to stupid levels to milk what is a definite edge but one which will, if it goes the same as other "edges"/market conditions, I suspect disappear.

So already I've faced 4 major shifts in markets where I've had to relearn my game. Anyone of these could of  taken me out. Now here is the kicker. Full time traders have one big disadvantage to part-timers. They have a continual drag on their accounts from having to live like a rock star, pay tax out of etc. Few will be able to survive a year where their account is down after living expenses and your market is forcing you to reassess your approach or face another down year.

Thats why there is no more SPI locals.



barney said:


> Hey TH ......
> 
> You talking literally(financially) here, or referring to the physical stress/toll associated when trading with size



 See above


----------



## artist

Thanks for the elaboration TH.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> My point is about consistent profitability.






Cheers M8 .......... I was a bit concerned your ticker might have needed a Defib with the size you are trading atm .... all is good as long as you are healthy .....  Don't want you leaving all that cash to your Dog just yet:


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> My point is about consistent profitability. Since starting what is scarily over 10 years ago I've been here,
> 2001-2004 idiot punta
> 2005-2006 Stock/CFD/FX trader with a "rough" discretionary system profiting from an early bull market
> 2006-2008 SPI scalper trading smallish lots with lots of success
> 2009- early 2010 Struggling SPI trader making 40% of previous years as a percentage of capital.
> 2010 - NOW nuts HSI trader trying to increase my size to stupid levels to milk what is a definite edge but one which will, if it goes the same as other "edges"/market conditions, I suspect disappear.
> 
> So already I've faced 4 major shifts in markets where I've had to relearn my game. Anyone of these could of  taken me out. Now here is the kicker. Full time traders have one big disadvantage to part-timers. They have a continual drag on their accounts from having to live like a rock star, pay tax out of etc. Few will be able to survive a year where their account is down after living expenses and your market is forcing you to reassess your approach or face another down year.
> 
> Thats why there is no more SPI locals.
> 
> See above




Aw I dont know my tax bill was spiked due to my trading
takes the fun out of it --- not happy.
As for living like a rock star--I can but impersonate Gene Simmons!


----------



## 5oclock

Hey , TH thanks for the no BS glimpse at your tradeing career, as always your posts and techs posts provide a lot of food for thought for us lesser mortals. Makes a big difference when you know that the posters tell it like it really is.


----------



## Joules MM1

bought to open gold cfd at 31's hit at 22's rebought at 25's ........this ones for tech/a 

(benny boy is stoking the fires)


----------



## boofis

US treasuries have been a trend followers dream!


----------



## Joules MM1

fat boys fat boys wotchya gonna do.....


----------



## Joules MM1

the real reason he went broke?: wrong phone.....



having a flat hair day today obviously


----------



## Joules MM1

big snp comments


----------



## Joules MM1

Can, did you watch that little swap of drivers pos's in the DAX......shorts on


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 49078
> 
> 
> Can, did you watch that little swap of drivers pos's in the DAX......shorts on




Not on the Dax but caught the top on the FESX. I'm on sim though, no confidence in the Internet here to live it. Sellers swamped it though!

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Evening traders!

Got a new job about a month ago, been travelling and having fun doing cool geeky stuff. Back in Melbourne for a couple of days of work before more travel.

Just thought I'd drop in and say hello, noticed some interesting discussion going on here. Reminds me a lot of Talebs discussion about the Arc Sine Law, I couldn't find the paper after a quick google but did find this blog about the topic from Risk Latte:

http://www.risklatte.com/Articles/QuantitativeFinance/QF_204.php



> This means the probability that in a time interval , where we have approximated the as , denoting a time period of one year, the probability that is always be positive or negative is 0.64%. This is quite a small probability. In other words, it is highly unlikely that over a period of one year a trader will consistently make profits or losses. His skill – or, the lack of it – is completely negated by the arc sine law. Instead of one year, change the time interval to 5 years, i.e. choose . The probability comes out to be 0.13%, even smaller. A trader’s luck has to run out somewhere.
> 
> Assuming that the trader started out with a very modest capital (this is an assumption to make the process consistent with ) and built his fortune over time, then over a 5 year period, i.e. the probability that , that is the trader will lose his shirt, is given by
> *
> This means that there is a big possibility – nearly certain – that all profits made by the trader will be wiped out in a 5 year period. *




(you should really click the link to read the article as I can't paste the equations here without taking a screenshot)

Hope everyone is doing well and enjoying the trends out there.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> http://www.risklatte.com/Articles/QuantitativeFinance/QF_204.php
> 
> Hope everyone is doing well and enjoying the trends out there.




$hit! 97% chance of losing my shirt in 5 years. And I've been trading for 4 years and 3 months


----------



## avion

Jeeeez, this has become a depressing thread lately...

Skc, i am willing to bet that you will not loose your shirt in 9 months,

TH, your post reads nothing more than evolution of a trader, markets change you adapted. As for 'could of' being wiped out, you 'could of' been hit by bus.

And Sinner thanks for asking, yes i am enjoying the ride i hope you are too.


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Jeeeez, this has become a depressing thread lately...




Hell you want depressing. Should see my friggin P & L today. 

Daily Stop........ BOOM!!!

:flush:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Hell you want depressing. Should see my friggin P & L today.
> 
> Daily Stop........ BOOM!!!
> 
> :flush:




Yikes...probably the equivalent of a weekly or monthly stop for me!

Must feel good to get that bad day out of the way TH!

CanOz


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Hell you want depressing. Should see my friggin P & L today.
> 
> Daily Stop........ BOOM!!!
> 
> :flush:




One of the many good things about being a day trader. Hit the daily stop = early beer (if you want).

For a position trader like me having a bad day... I just keep looking at the clock waiting for the trading day to end, keep breathing and telling myself "It will mean revert. It will mean revert."


----------



## waza1960

> For a position trader like me having a bad day... I just keep looking at the clock waiting for the trading day to end, keep breathing and telling myself "It will mean revert. It will mean revert."




Can relate to that LOL


----------



## Joules MM1

spx needs to hold 1429's. attempting to bounce here, again, not getting any sense of buying the low......

------------------

twitterated


> Bespoke‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> The technicals for the Nasdaq went from looking pretty good at this time yesterday to looking absolutely horrible now. $QQQ $$




woops, there it is......







> Bespoke‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> Spain down nearly 4%, Italy down 3%+. Uh-oh. $$


----------



## Joules MM1

1429's 1430's merely previous daily volume nodes......


----------



## CanOz

I'm guessing TH and the other HSI traders are having a few days off?

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I've never posted on this thread, but have often read it.

It's a fantastic study of human behaviour.  Many months ago a guy calling himself Trembling Hand came back to ASF after a long break.  Apparently the rumours are true that he is a gun trader.   He set up the "international traders banter thread", and people came out of the woodwork to talk with him.  It was like the second coming!  Flattery and "welcome back TH" messages popped up everywhere, and he ignored them all!  

Now it seems he is gone, and the whole thread, its regular contributors have followed suit.  Is that the definition of a leader, or what?  He didn't even say goodbye!

Something similar happened on Hotcopper a few years ago, when one of the leaders in the popular daytrader threads by the name of "iPod" picked up his bat and ball and left.  The HC guys didn't know what to do with themselves for quite a while, and I don't think the day trader threads have ever been the same since.  One really interesting point about such guys is that when they make a big decision, it seems to coincide very closely with large turning points in the market.

So let's see.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank your " fantastic study of human behaviour" is about as good as your reading of the market I would say. China week long holliday...... nothing doing till today mate. 


But welcome to the realist thread.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> Gringotts Bank your " fantastic study of human behaviour" is about as good as your reading of the market I would say.




So, pretty accurate then, yeh?


----------



## Boggo

It's easy to see why people with good intentions just give up.
Too many knob jockeys who can talk the talk but can't walk the walk turn up with a "if I can't eat it then I will **** on it" fruit bat mentality.

Have a look at the TGA, RED and PEN etc threads for some examples of what I mean.


----------



## kid hustlr

Not sure why you would post that GB


----------



## Gringotts Bank

kid hustlr said:


> Not sure why you would post that GB




Just saying some posters are very influential.  The guy I mentioned on HC was so influential that about 80% of the stocks he said he was buying (as day trades) would immediately jump a few price levels.  I've never seen that before.  It reminded me of some of the characters in Gladwell's book "Tipping Point" - the 'connectors' and the 'Mavens'.

I argue with TH quite a lot, but I respect what he does.  There's no disrespect there.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've never posted on this thread, but have often read it.
> 
> It's a fantastic study of human behaviour.  Many months ago a guy calling himself Trembling Hand came back to ASF after a long break.  Apparently the rumours are true that he is a gun trader.   He set up the "international traders banter thread", and people came out of the woodwork to talk with him.  It was like the second coming!  Flattery and "welcome back TH" messages popped up everywhere, and he ignored them all!
> 
> Now it seems he is gone, and the whole thread, its regular contributors have followed suit.  Is that the definition of a leader, or what?  He didn't even say goodbye!
> 
> Something similar happened on Hotcopper a few years ago, when one of the leaders in the popular daytrader threads by the name of "iPod" picked up his bat and ball and left.  The HC guys didn't know what to do with themselves for quite a while, and I don't think the day trader threads have ever been the same since.  One really interesting point about such guys is that when they make a big decision, it seems to coincide very closely with large turning points in the market.
> 
> So let's see.




WTF?

You turn a holiday into a study in human behavior and a turning point in the market....ROTFLMAO!

Even after i hinted about the holiday!!

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> WTF?
> 
> You turn a holiday into a study in human behavior and a turning point in the market....ROTFLMAO!
> 
> Even after i hinted about the holiday!!
> 
> CanOz




Well from what I've seen he is the only one who trades the HSI.  Everyone else sees it as too volatile.  TH had a week off, and everyone else stopped posting.  That much was obvious.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Well from what I've seen he is the only one who trades the HSI.  Everyone else sees it as too volatile.  TH had a week off, and everyone else stopped posting.  That much was obvious.




I think we could qualify that with "TH is the only on ASF trading the HSI"....

I'm sure there's a few at Propex trading it...

But why would they hang out here? They get to hang out with actual traders...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I think we could qualify that with "TH is the only on ASF trading the HSI"....




Hasn't Punta got a system running on it?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Hasn't Punta got a system running on it?




Maybe on and off?


----------



## Joules MM1

dax holds ground


----------



## CanOz

FESX looking to tag the PD VPOC.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> FESX looking to tag the PD VPOC.




kardashian charts.....oh.....nice.... 

usual hesitate at the prev closing cash level.....well into the session, looks like we have a base/demand area to build on......


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> kardashian charts.....oh.....nice....
> 
> usual hesitate at the prev closing cash level.....well into the session, looks like we have a base/demand area to build on......




LOL, 

shes fighting a thousand bergs and some mighty tick divergence on the way to 91.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Gotta love a DPOC shift in your trade direction! FESX now 2486...


----------



## CanOz

Well there's 91 tagged...


----------



## CanOz

Next stop 2500....


----------



## Joules MM1

debates

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...ming_n_1937698.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012

potus needs to show some arrogance...stop giving pussy responses or romney is going to win......


----------



## Joules MM1

anyone got a handle on Japan release times today ?


----------



## Joules MM1

where to DAX ? ......small series of higher highs in the cash ....just stopped at ratio resistance......suspect waiting the non-farm release.......looking to BTO above 7355......

anyone?


----------



## Joules MM1

dax, next blow-thru 7375's .....that'd be nice.....

sehr gut


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> dax, next blow-thru 7375's .....that'd be nice.....
> 
> sehr gut




next target 7418's cash.....


----------



## Joules MM1

i'm thinking, a little proviso in here, although i suspect i'm wrong this time around....in previous occasions when futes lift just 30-40 mins out from a major release like nonfarms or ism's/ppi's etc ....the lift usually assists/set-up shorts....v.v for longs......weaks on  the wrong side


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> BTO above 7355......




STC 7378's 

bwark


----------



## Joules MM1

twittshnellshnell


> Fari Hamzei ‏@HamzeiAnalytics
> 
> Good Morning All .... welcome to the most critical NFP trade in the history of the most powerful empire




huh?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

starting from today I'm trying to get back to basics and have a decent go at a few things, mainly understanding and implementing positive expectancy, need to learn more about time and breadth analysis and getting my head in the right spot as far as thinking about only being as good as my average, concentrating on minimising the losing side etc. 

This is from the morning session of the HSI, just on sim obviously. Wouldn't mind others opinions about how this looks as far as results go, trying to fully understand positive expectancy, I focused more on my averages today, kept an eye on avg win/loss ratio, rather than T/A patterns etc. 

I know its only one session but might as well get stuck in and find out what I can improve from the get-go. Main problem I feel I had today was when I had a runner going I was trying to concentrate on my stop loss, and when to move it, I moved it once I got to 1R so I locked that in, then 2R and so on, but not sure when to take it off and move it, say I'm up over 2R and it's hovering around 3R, do I move it there as soon as its beyond it, but that would be at risk of getting taken out straight away and I could potentitally miss a 4 or 5R winner?

1m chart.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Too much trading. If you told yourself you only had 5 trades per morning sess how would you trade it? For a start you wouldn't go chasing moves. You would take trades based on expected range and anticipate that you'll be in trades for some time while managing your trailing stops until it extends and builds a decent R:R.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Too much trading. If you told yourself you only had 5 trades per morning sess how would you trade it? For a start you wouldn't go chasing moves. You would take trades based on expected range and anticipate that you'll be in trades for some time while managing your trailing stops until it extends and builds a decent R:R.




What do you mean? Do you mean expected range for the morning session(that you've gotten from historical data?), or expected order of moves(I expect downturn on open then pullback 50% type thing) or just avg range is X so when it gets beyond that I start fading? Also what about when you're completely wrong with so few trades you would have less chance to make it back? Seems hard to make so few trades and hold them, especially with the way honkers moves, like we sell off 80 ticks then it'll rally back 60 immediately, I guess that's what managing the trailing stop is all about.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What do you mean? Do you mean expected range for the morning session(that you've gotten from historical data?), or expected order of moves(I expect downturn on open then pullback 50% type thing) or just avg range is X so when it gets beyond that I start fading? Also what about when you're completely wrong with so few trades you would have less chance to make it back? Seems hard to make so few trades and hold them, especially with the way honkers moves, like we sell off 80 ticks then it'll rally back 60 immediately, I guess that's what managing the trailing stop is all about.




Sam good to see your still trading. all I can tell you is trading 1min off a chart is freaking hard man...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

>Apocalypto< said:


> Sam good to see your still trading. all I can tell you is trading 1min off a chart is freaking hard man...




I haven't been for a while, been thinking about what to do for a long time, but I think it's too much of a waste to not do something to do with trading because of what I know and the time I spent learning it all, plus I think I'll always love it and want to do it. I figure starting a business or anything other than trading(have thought about programming, either to do with trading or something like making apps) has just as much risk of failure and I don't have to start from scratch with trading like I would with something else. 

and yes I know, I actually want to try some longer term trades, hold for a day or two to see how it goes, but I thought I'd have a go at honkers today and got carried away I guess, trying to figure out some kind of structure to base larger trades on, I'm used to banging away one trade after the other


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Too much trading. If you told yourself you only had 5 trades per morning sess how would you trade it? For a start you wouldn't go chasing moves. You would take trades based on expected range and anticipate that you'll be in trades for some time while managing your trailing stops until it extends and builds a decent R:R.




What have you become TH!?! For somebody who used to bang out 300-400 trades per day advocating that 21 trades is too much..!!! I can't recognize you man, what happened....

Must be that institutional size you are trading with!!  Another step in the evolution of a trader...


----------



## Joules MM1

ThingyMajiggy said:


> starting from today I'm trying to get back to basics t.





what was the prep work for the session, Sam ? 

was a gentle down day easy valleys....those chops you sold, i've seen several guns trade those moves that kept going and going and get beaten the whole day long only because they werent doing any prep work.....what is the context of the trade set-up and the relative size is the content of prep-work, (for me, anyways)

i think it's important to find what works for you, for sure....

edit: for the sake of blah blah, i did trade the hsi today, 4  x 5 sell to open, 3 x 5 close take profit (buy to close; 2 at market and one take profit close) and one broken into 5 parcels....no draw-downs, wasted time .......

edit 2 : the point is, imho, anyone who tells how to trade is only  telling half the story and only from their own perspective and at that point in their own trading game.....


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Main problem I feel I had today was when I had a runner going I was trying to concentrate on my stop loss, and when to move it, I moved it once I got to 1R so I locked that in, then 2R and so on, but not sure when to take it off and move it, say I'm up over 2R and it's hovering around 3R, do I move it there as soon as its beyond it, but that would be at risk of getting taken out straight away and I could potentitally miss a 4 or 5R winner?
> 
> 1m chart.




Sam, i thought you would know this one... multuple contracts! Even if it's just two, close one let the other one run... Or am i missing something?


----------



## boofis

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I know its only one session but might as well get stuck in and find out what I can improve from the get-go. Main problem I feel I had today was when I had a runner going I was trying to concentrate on my stop loss, and when to move it, I moved it once I got to 1R so I locked that in, then 2R and so on, but not sure when to take it off and move it, say I'm up over 2R and it's hovering around 3R, do I move it there as soon as its beyond it, but that would be at risk of getting taken out straight away and I could potentitally miss a 4 or 5R winner?




If you're trying to catch longer moves you will nearly always give back some unsecured profit, if you're just catching smaller moves then you'll nearly always leave some profit on the table.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Joules MM1 said:


> what was the prep work for the session, Sam ?
> 
> was a gentle down day easy valleys....those chops you sold, i've seen several guns trade those moves that kept going and going and get beaten the whole day long only because they werent doing any prep work.....what is the context of the trade set-up and the relative size is the content of prep-work, (for me, anyways)
> 
> i think it's important to find what works for you, for sure....
> 
> edit: for the sake of blah blah, i did trade the hsi today, 4  x 5 sell to open, 3 x 5 close take profit (buy to close; 2 at market and one take profit close) and one broken into 5 parcels....no draw-downs, wasted time .......
> 
> edit 2 : the point is, imho, anyone who tells how to trade is only  telling half the story and only from their own perspective and at that point in their own trading game.....




No prep work, what's the point when the outcome is random? I've done prep work before and to be honest I have no idea what to do, come up with scenarios? expected range? Did that, then didn't even look at it the whole time I was trading, just forgot about it completely pretty much, if it doesn't get implemented into the trades, then why bother? Besides, what happens when its wrong? Say you have multiple scenarios played out and it's half of one and the second half of another one you drew/thought up, you might chase the first one for the rest of the day because that was playing out....until it didn't. 



avion said:


> Sam, i thought you would know this one... multuple contracts! Even if it's just two, close one let the other one run... Or am i missing something?




Yeah agreed obviously its easier with multiple contracts, but adding size shouldn't be a solution to a problem just because it makes it easier, I'm trying to find the best way to ride those runners....



boofis said:


> If you're trying to catch longer moves you will nearly always give back some unsecured profit, if you're just catching smaller moves then you'll nearly always leave some profit on the table.




....and this is the answer.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> No prep work, what's the point when the outcome is random? I've done prep work before and to be honest I have no idea what to do, come up with scenarios? expected range? Did that, then didn't even look at it the whole time I was trading, just forgot about it completely pretty much, if it doesn't get implemented into the trades, then why bother? Besides, what happens when its wrong? Say you have multiple scenarios played out and it's half of one and the second half of another one you drew/thought up, you might chase the first one for the rest of the day because that was playing out....until it didn't.




Man if you cannot work out a basic play book for the day and how its actually going to look as the chart progresses then you actually haven't got anything to trade. 

You are just throwing random orders around reacting to noise. I guess it can work that way but its a very thin idea.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Man if you cannot work out a basic play book for the day and how its actually going to look as the chart progresses then you actually haven't got anything to trade.
> 
> You are just throwing random orders around reacting to noise. I guess it can work that way but its a very thin idea.




How do you begin to have an idea on what kind of day it's going to be though? Open to ideas/suggestions, hence why I'm here. 

It's not like I have no idea how to read the market, I don't see any advantage in having an expectation laying in front of me(that will most likely be completely wrong) vs reading it as it happens where I've seen it before, can get a good idea/feel when it's going to take off or come back etc. But I'm more than likely all wrong about this, because it hasn't seemed to work in the past obviously, I've never really done longer term stuff, longer term being 15 minutes out to a whole day/session, hence why I need help. I've pretty much just done scalping, which seems for the most part to be dead nowdays.


----------



## boofis

First part of my prep before a session consists of running through a monthly/weekly/daily chart to see if we're near any significant s/r levels for longer term players to be making moves. If so, keep it in mind approaching those levels when watching the action.
Also, what makes you say that scalping is dead :S?


----------



## Joules MM1

ThingyMajiggy said:


> No prep work, what's the point when the outcome is random? .




i see


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hey boofis you know your pic isn't showing up?

What do you see?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

boofis said:


> First part of my prep before a session consists of running through a monthly/weekly/daily chart to see if we're near any significant s/r levels for longer term players to be making moves. If so, keep it in mind approaching those levels when watching the action.
> Also, what makes you say that scalping is dead :S?




Yeah well how long does that take? Is that really "prep"? That's just keeping an eye on S/R levels, I have 60m/daily up anyway so I can see if its coming to or near a big level on the fly, I can't see how writing that down in a plan in the morning will help me? 

and because I've tried it, had no success and everyone I know that used to be a scalper, is no longer a scalper, sure it might be ok when the conditions suit, but not all the time I don't think. 



Joules MM1 said:


> i see




Elaborate? What "prep" work do you do? As I've said, let me know what sort of stuff is "prep" work, I might be looking at it the wrong way, I'm used to scalping and thinking in the now, reading what is happening now because I figured some big dick can come in and blow any prep or plans or expectations I had out of the water at any moment if the business needs to be done now.


----------



## Joules MM1

?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Huh?


----------



## Joules MM1

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Elaborate? What "prep" work do you do? As I've said, let me know what sort of stuff is "prep" work, I might be looking at it the wrong way, I'm used to scalping and thinking in the now, reading what is happening now because I figured some big dick can come in and blow any prep or plans or expectations I had out of the water at any moment if the business needs to be done now.




i wrote a long-winded post....i'll send it.....it's patronising, so pulled it before the expiry time......lulz 

my prep work is also long winded and i aint giving it away.....also nuances of different plays, diff tiers of plays, i dont think, can be just put into text.....

as for any dick can come and blow thru, well, yeah, but again, depends youre play, not just theirs, how you frame the game youre in.....you can't beat supply and demand so everything is relative to the game youre running and how you read the guy on the other side of your trade.......


----------



## boofis

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah well how long does that take? Is that really "prep"? That's just keeping an eye on S/R levels, I have 60m/daily up anyway so I can see if its coming to or near a big level on the fly, I can't see how writing that down in a plan in the morning will help me?
> 
> and because I've tried it, had no success and everyone I know that used to be a scalper, is no longer a scalper, sure it might be ok when the conditions suit, but not all the time I don't think. .




Not having a crack at you, but it seems that at present you're a bit frustrated and it may appear as though nothings working etc. so that's prob something to look at imo before trading again.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Joules MM1 said:


> i wrote a long-winded post....i'll send it.....it's patronising, so pulled it before the expiry time......lulz
> 
> my prep work is also long winded and i aint giving it away.....also nuances of different plays, diff tiers of plays, i dont think, can be just put into text.....
> 
> as for any dick can come and blow thru, well, yeah, but again, depends youre play, not just theirs, how you frame the game youre in.....you can't beat supply and demand so everything is relative to the game youre running and how you read the guy on the other side of your trade.......




Okay


----------



## Joules MM1

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How do you begin




maybe propex is the go, Sam


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just posting this in here for you big boyz,



craft said:


> I like these loser threads because they get the closest to the right approach.
> 
> Risk by its very definition is being exposed to a possible negative outcome.
> 
> You can’t be successful if you don’t take on risk.
> 
> You can only do two things to control risk.
> 
> 1)	Take risk on when it’s priced favourably.  (according to your strategy)
> 
> 2)	Managing the negative outcomes.
> 
> Do these two things and you will have a positive expectancy  - All that remains is to be exposed to risk for long enough for any negative randomness to be overcome by your expectancy and you have a plan to win.
> 
> Lots of people talk about an edge but I suspect some don’t actually understand what it is – Its whatever address 1) above.   Generally there’s not much to do with an edge after you have worked yours out except, scan/wait until your criteria is met, and then take a position.
> 
> After nailing down 1) The real work of being in the market is 2) managing negative outcomes (the positive takes care of itself) and that means being immersed in your mistakes.  I know personally that I spend so much time concentrating on managing negative outcomes that it generally comes some what as a shock when the big picture is tallied up – all of which that leads me to the clip below which sums it all up for me.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Joules MM1 said:


> maybe propex is the go, Sam




Been there done that. No comment. 

As you were, this is going away from trading and becoming about me, I'll stop asking for help.


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> As you were, this is going away from trading and becoming about me, I'll stop asking for help.





Because the real answer is YOU Sam and you probably know this... The rest of the traders here are just a mirror for your ideas that clarify it a bit hopefully and bounce it back to you which is totally valid thing to do. And in this case most fingers are pointing at you. All the best with your trading, keep us posted...


----------



## avion

Brilliant post above by Craft (thanks TH), here is the link for video he is reffering to:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45mMioJ5szc


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI is being very annoying today. China must be about to announce some more fuel to the fire.

:frown:


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> HSI is being very annoying today. China must be about to announce some more fuel to the fire.
> 
> :frown:




be a lot of small early shorters getting burnt today....(cough) .....until,  eventually......

n tricky US overnights did nice swing through stop sells and now up with hsi


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> be a lot of small early shorters getting burnt today....(cough) .....until,  eventually......
> 
> n tricky US overnights did nice swing through stop sells and now up with hsi




If I'm not careful I'll be accused of posting just to move the HSI........


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> If I'm not careful I'll be accused of posting just to move the HSI........




lulz......i got long just prior to the break-up just closed for lunch.....sure there'll be a minor smack down at resump.......

note the xjo opened downish relatively small for a heavy nasdaq morning but was pretty strong most of....pos back grounds


----------



## avion

It just seems hell bent to close that gap...


----------



## avion

could not read HSI today...


----------



## Trembling Hand

How bully is the Seng this week. H shares even more so!


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> How bully is the Seng this week. H shares even more so!




nah....that's _you_ doin that mate......stop buyin and they'll crumble 

they gotta do business and not wait for the other elephant to finish gargling election razerblades.....


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> How bully is the Seng this week. H shares even more so!




Same can be said about us. Rate cut definitely helped but we just kept brushing off negative leads like they don't matter.

Isn't there some research out there that suggests market usually rise after a holiday because peple are in a good mood (or something like that). The Chinese must have had a good golden week.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> The Chinese must have had a good golden week.




They always do.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> How bully is the Seng this week. H shares even more so!




I should sell this stuff to the punters with a $12,000 weekend course.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> I should sell this stuff to the punters with a $12,000 weekend course.




You can't do that! You are quite simply not qualified! 

You need to be a totally dysfunctional trading loser before anyone will pay to attend your weekend workshop.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> You can't do that! You are quite simply not qualified!
> 
> You need to be a totally dysfunctional trading loser before anyone will pay to attend your weekend workshop.




hahaha


----------



## Trembling Hand

Should get some fire works at 12:30. China CPI and PPI


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Should get some fire works at 12:30. China CPI and PPI




lulz....wet fuse


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> lulz....wet fuse




LOL!

Nice ABC into support at 21050...

Got a week off at home....woo hoo!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> LOL!
> 
> Nice ABC into support at 21050...
> 
> Got a week off at home....woo hoo!
> 
> CanOz






> don't get cocky, kid



 han solo

hsi/xjo ....hard hitters on xjo this morning....but nothing.... even with globex smashing some points below.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Chop Chop today.:behead:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Chop Chop today.:behead:




Yeah, trading in a range smack in the middle of this big value area....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just LOL at the Seng.

Too funny!! How could you ever trade anything else?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Just LOL at the Seng.
> 
> Too funny!! How could you ever trade anything else?




Haha was thinking of you through that LOL'ing  there's the gap close, continue on further or rally and flat?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha was thinking of you through that LOL'ing  there's the gap close, continue on further or rally and flat?




Who cares I'm off to order the Learjet.

haha


----------



## havaiana

Really wondering why i am trading the Aussie 10 year these past few days when the volatility has been so crap.

Hopefully there is a decent move when this range breaks


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> Really wondering why i am trading the Aussie 10 year these past few days when the volatility has been so crap.




Interesting. Why did you pick that instrument to trade? Are you ex prop?

Personally I'd prefer to be a unicorn farrier, more to do.


----------



## white_goodman

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting. Why did you pick that instrument to trade? Are you ex prop?
> 
> Personally I'd prefer to be a unicorn farrier, more to do.




ill be stealing that analogy


----------



## CanOz

WTF???

what happened? Good news i guess??

Must have been G.Sachs earnings....looks like it got some shorts on the run...

CanOz


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> WTF???
> 
> what happened? Good news i guess??
> 
> Must have been G.Sachs earnings....looks like it got some shorts on the run...
> 
> CanOz




Not entirely sure, but whatever it was, it just wiped out a third of my profits from the past week (Damn it!).


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting. Why did you pick that instrument to trade? Are you ex prop?
> 
> Personally I'd prefer to be a unicorn farrier, more to do.




Ha ha. Not prop, I did a month of online training/sim with propex and we could only trade US/Aus Bonds. So it just meant i had a couple of months experience in Bond futures and nothing in any other futures (previously traded forex).

I have a pretty small account and transaction costs are pretty cheap for the 10 year if you have a small retail account and no minimum volume requirement (10 year i can get commission for about 6% of a tick value versus about 9% of tick value for SPI). Also margins are very low compared with tick size and i can use that margin because it moves so slow can keep my average loss to around 1.5 ticks or less. 

But i guess i didn't anticipate the volatility would be such a factor, i'm just not finding enough trades. Considering a switch, my broker only offers Nikkei, SPI and MSCI, going to have a look into them over the weekend. Mind you this morning look promising in XT, unfortunately it Gapped outside the range though so i couldn't trade through it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI is like trading the SPI today!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> HSI is like trading the SPI today!




Kospi is making it worth while


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Kospi is making it worth while




Funny old market aint it? This is why daytrading is hard. One day you are faced with a rip roaring one thats flowing 20 to 40 or more points a min then the very next day you get a 80 point range for the whole morning session.

Ya gotta know what game you're playing before you are told.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Funny old market aint it? This is why daytrading is hard. One day you are faced with a rip roaring one thats flowing 20 to 40 or more points a min then the very next day you get a 80 point range for the whole morning session.
> 
> Ya gotta know what game you're playing before you are told.




Yeah and different periods during the day too, like the last 3 days haven't done much from after the first hour or two till the close, fairly quiet relative to what it can do when you look back further, but I guess the longer it's quiet the bigger the bang when it goes off.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Pretty much sums up the seng today! :behead:


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Pretty much sums up the seng today! :behead:




There goes my perfect October...... :frown:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> There goes my perfect October...... :frown:
> 
> View attachment 49356




Looks like its NetJets for you!


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> There goes my perfect October...... :frown:
> 
> View attachment 49356





Godamn it TH ... you'll have to put retreads on the Lear Jet now ....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

HSI has me buggered today, thought it would do this yesterday


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> HSI has me buggered today, thought it would do this yesterday




That last big push higher before the top was tempting...i guess thats why it was the HOD lol!

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Wow, a pile of sellers just got absorbed and then the price rocketed up thru the HOD...nice.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Wow, a pile of sellers just got absorbed and then the price rocketed up thru the HOD...nice.
> 
> CanOz




I'd been trying to play that move all friggin day. CUT TO BITS!! By the time it happened I've only got back half my days losses.

Here is what my transport will be looking like now,


----------



## CanOz

LOL! Nice wheels...

Been watching the HSI most of the morning while puttering away...Took a few trades on the sim and got chopped up as well. Messy old trend...

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Executing through NT on sim I managed to get short at 21428 lol.....now that's skill, seeing as we didn't even trade down there!  so that kinda ruined my day.  

Anyone else with IB and got a frozen Eurex feed? Dax/Bund etc. haven't moved for half hour for me


----------



## captain black

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Anyone else with IB and got a frozen Eurex feed? Dax/Bund etc. haven't moved for half hour for me




Yeh, same here Sam.


----------



## captain black

..and we're away again


----------



## havaiana

Bonds not moving in correlation to the rest of the market last night, interesting to see how that plays out today


----------



## boofis

US bonds smashed me last night, that bounce on the announcement was ridiculous


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Yeh, same here Sam.




I switched to kinetick for Eurex...so far so good.


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> US bonds smashed me last night, that bounce on the announcement was ridiculous




Lol, did you get goggled by google?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> I switched to kinetick for Eurex...so far so good.
> 
> 
> CanOz




Just for Eurex? Will check it out. 

It came back online not long after that so wasn't too bad, still crap but least it didn't die for hours like it can sometimes, managed to make back all I had lost from my spastic Asian session, love the dax :blover:


----------



## CanOz

Yup, ten deep on the DOM too.

Esignal has no depth at all. IB. Has too many in between the bid and ask.

CanOz


----------



## havaiana

sounds like he had it tough...

*The $665 million man: 41-year-old 'Wizard of Oz' returning to Sydney with a fortune*

"He demanded that a cup of coffee be delivered to his desk at the same time every day, even if he wasn't in."

"...his wrath towards cleaners who moved the carefully arranged mini-bottles of vodka on his desk"


http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...h-a-fortune-20121019-27uz8.html#ixzz29hWVHakH


----------



## havaiana

Nice options attack...

*Mystery trades hit ANZ, CBA stocks*

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/mystery-trades-hit-anz-cba-stocks-20121018-27ssj.html


----------



## Gringotts Bank

havaiana said:


> sounds like he had it tough...
> 
> *The $665 million man: 41-year-old 'Wizard of Oz' returning to Sydney with a fortune*
> 
> "He demanded that a cup of coffee be delivered to his desk at the same time every day, even if he wasn't in."
> 
> "...his wrath towards cleaners who moved the carefully arranged mini-bottles of vodka on his desk"
> 
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...h-a-fortune-20121019-27uz8.html#ixzz29hWVHakH




Interesting article thanks.

He had two good years (50+%), the rest were poor or mediocre.

And at 41 he retires with $665mill?

Someone got screwed.... and I guess it's the investors.  Do these guys just take whatever cream they like off the top?

"Coffey, whom billionaire founder Louis Moore Bacon called "one of the most impressive traders in the world" when he hired him four years ago, *has had mixed performance since joining the New York-based fund.* That had fuelled speculation among investors that he might leave".


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> Lol, did you get goggled by google?




I got goggled alright, was waiting for the unemployment claims announcement and then bam I'm on the wrong side of the market haha.


----------



## havaiana

I had a goal this week of keep my average loss to less than 1.5 ticks (1 tick in the 10 year is .005). Looks like i have blown it in one of my last trades for the week with this 3 tick loss! Now i need another loss to fix it

Goal next week, find more trades...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

havaiana said:


> Goal next week, find more trades...




Good luck with that. Have you ever tried our curve? Spreading 3s10s? Might be more opportunities is all, or with the bills. 

Other than that, TH's analogy is pretty much spot on. Unless you're sitting on the exchange hitting into numbers(like most prop guys do) then it's like watching paint dry, but if you can make it work then go for it


----------



## havaiana

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Good luck with that. Have you ever tried our curve? Spreading 3s10s? Might be more opportunities is all, or with the bills.
> 
> Other than that, TH's analogy is pretty much spot on. Unless you're sitting on the exchange hitting into numbers(like most prop guys do) then it's like watching paint dry, but if you can make it work then go for it




I tried spreading for a bit on demo, definitely was not one of my strengths. I figure if i need to go down the spreading path it will just be easier to learn a new instrument.

I don't see that much of an advantage being prop in terms of how i can trade (obviously there are other advantages), the speed is a factor, but the treasuries move pretty slow in asia. Transaction costs are not a factor, they were very similar to what i get now with a no min volume retail account. Having never been prop myself or personally know anyone who has, is there something else i'm missing in terms of the actual trading?

If I can squeeze in a few more trades a day would be plenty to make a living on, there has been no volatility this past week either.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

havaiana said:


> I tried spreading for a bit on demo, definitely was not one of my strengths. I figure if i need to go down the spreading path it will just be easier to learn a new instrument.
> 
> I don't see that much of an advantage being prop in terms of how i can trade (obviously there are other advantages), the speed is a factor, but the treasuries move pretty slow in asia. Transaction costs are not a factor, they were very similar to what i get now with a no min volume retail account. Having never been prop myself or personally know anyone who has, is there something else i'm missing in terms of the actual trading?
> 
> If I can squeeze in a few more trades a day would be plenty to make a living on, there has been no volatility this past week either.




Yeah fair enough, I was the same re spreading, just offered it in case you hadn't tried it/thought of it yet, plus that was what a lot of the prop guys were doing, those who traded bonds(most of the floor). 

The advantage of prop other than speed/knowledge is size and you're trading their money, if you do well they will up your size significantly and they take the losses, not you personally, where as you willl have to pay expenses to live etc. from your account now, so if you make a mistake it could stuff things up. 

The thing is, this is fairly volatile for our bonds, I was told it was not uncommon to see 1.5-3 tick daily ranges before the whole GFC/Europe nonsense and volatility come on the scene.


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> Having never been prop myself or personally know anyone who has, is there something else i'm missing in terms of the actual trading?




Chances of making money long term are weighed very much in favour of prop. Most traders blow up after drawdown periods makes their position size not viable for a living. That doesn't happen with prop. Your takings (bills living money etc drug habit),tax, drawdowns do not effect position size.

if you have ever traded as long as this old timer you will realise what a MASSIVE advantage prop has over their retail  competitors in a zero sum game.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, whats with the one way street in Europe today??

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

4 up days in a row and near daily highs is what I put it down to


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> 4 up days in a row and near daily highs is what I put it down to




And here was I thinking that it was attributable to the silver anniversary of the '87 crash!


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> I'd been trying to play that move all friggin day. CUT TO BITS!! By the time it happened I've only got back half my days losses.
> 
> Here is what my transport will be looking like now,
> 
> View attachment 49370




Nice wheels!

I hear those things have great fuel economy when driven off the edge of cliffs.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

cynic said:


> And here was I thinking that it was attributable to the silver anniversary of the '87 crash!




Of course it was that and also this 12K system I subscribed to said the bearish stars aligned.


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Of course it was that and also this 12K system I subscribed to said the bearish stars aligned.




Yes! 

That explains it! 

It certainly makes much more sense than those bollocks bands, Fibber Nachos, so spastics, and mooing beverages (not to mention that surfie named Elliot). Definitely 12K well divested!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> And here was I thinking that it was attributable to the silver anniversary of the '87 crash!





I think 25 has enough stat probability to enable a trade on this .....

I have the data, I should check later how many days were red candles....


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI and EURO having a rather Bully run today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ya gotta love when they turn on that churn Bot, should be all over in 4 mins


----------



## CanOz

Wow, the Kospi caught a bid from 253.40!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Wow, the Kospi caught a bid from 253.40!




keh? show me, quando.....got  a piccy?


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Wow, the Kospi caught a bid from 253.40!




lulz....i'm riding todays mini death roll on the xjo....it's like syrup


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> lulz....i'm riding todays mini death roll on the xjo....it's like syrup




The XJO!! What exactly were you thinking at the time? I haven't traded that wee beastie since 2009. You're a braver trader than I am...


----------



## Joules MM1

cynic said:


> The XJO!! What exactly were you thinking at the time? I haven't traded that wee beastie since 2009. You're a braver trader than I am...





1 hsi closed, no pos bias

2 already in a minor retracement

3 us futes overshot (presi debate) and sagging into the debate time

4 weight is down

5 bar over bar, a sell........juuuuuust enough for a cuppalattefroth no bigger than my thumb


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> keh? show me, quando.....got  a piccy?




Sorry, it was lunchtime... Too hungry to post a piccy.


----------



## Joules MM1

cynic said:


> The XJO!! What exactly were you thinking at the time? I haven't traded that wee beastie since 2009. You're a braver trader than I am...




death roll into close of trade 20 mins after cash close (4.10 inc post-cash auction)


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Sorry, it was lunchtime... Too hungry to post a piccy.




S

did you trade that?


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> S
> 
> did you trade that?




Just simming mate.... Back to work in backwater PRC this week!


----------



## Joules MM1

weak bounce cooked in overnights....dax making hay unable to make a low 7260's  .....smash......


----------



## Joules MM1

that woz the day that woz but not in....



> Bespoke‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> Since ZIRP began in Dec. '08, the S&P 500 has been up on 4 out of 5 Fed Days that were preceded by a 1%+ down day like today. We shall see.


----------



## Joules MM1

flash pmi's as far as the eye can see.....

12.45 next


----------



## CanOz

What a battle that was on the Kospi for 251.15....the bulls lost...for now.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Trading the FESX on sim, the ES opens and tests the Globex high before dumping everything on the bid...i love sitting up in bed and watching the DOM at the ES open


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

US overnights very bullishnessnessness

hit me with your rhythm stop!


----------



## Joules MM1

prep .....DAX

basic Wolfe wave tested yesterday, exp continuation today.....larger day ratios look complete in retracement daily basis

bases loaded on shorts for most small  accounts judging by sentiment in most public places

metals look like they ready to reverse....liquidity can go where it wants....easy to flex price against weak shorts

no agreement downside from hsi (in fact hsi contender for blow-off)

the day opens typically, i'm looking for upwards momentum, forced up, poss covering spike, 

normal pullback starts to roll, suspicious when covering long bar comes in near 2/3 retrace of the low to high spike, stand aside

buying comes in....again.....now we are half way back to double high....price is acting smooth, impulsvely
faulters just for a moment and as small sells hit i can see buys hitting.....very quickly, orderly we move to 3rd
high.....no such thing as triple tops....we're buying, i'm buying....first pullback is normal......exit....next upmove comes with strength, smooth, impulsive character i miss low but get bulk of move....look immed for ratio.....we hit exact 100% of impulives take off buys....makes me suss it's a hook, i exit.....but, it does this little give-away of making a tiny higher high, it's a fhead fake.....elliotts b wave thingy.....i look ratio, of the first move down the second downm from the headfake high is exactly 161.8% .....boo-fekkin-yah.....it's a buy place stop 1 buck below (cfd) ........buy that with all pos size allows......run you fekker run!


----------



## Joules MM1

looking for general shape acc to regime im following...this is vital.....whether you diss elliott or whomever, doenst matter....wot works is wot works for you from the history of proof....call it eperience, whatever.....

i like how the dailys cross both the dax and spx look the same, to me bullish....also see my pullback chart for daily view on spx on twitter.....

i want to see how close to the pin i can nail sentiment....so easy to sway small accounts into shorts over leveraged or over margined....fodder.....that's the easy part....the part i want to see to confirm my work is the price action......no DOM....must know the action and quickly place into context......doesnt matter that i might be in a larger hook to set me up to buy a lot of volume that someones else doesnt want...the key for me is to be ready for that with a plan and then see if that plan is just not fitting, what are the markes i should know, cos, really, no plan means distraction.......being wrong is good if my plan allows me time...thinking time, i mean, i'm only struggling with less dimension....i'm not looking at anything other than applied ratios, 2 charts of time and a cupla select charts of other liquidity vehicles (like xjo or spx)

running session, dax:
when i'm not sure, the time on the chart needs to be changed, i see price diff, i react diff, i see context and size diff.....how this level gets halted but not rejected.....how come price pauses but no real sell hits, can't be any size here.....again, we move close to opening highs for 3rd time, that's wrong for sellers, they'll cover, i'm buying.....look at the bigger chart, how much can we go analogous on impulsive buy....mebbe 40 points, nothing for dax....pullbacks are orthodox....miniature trend.......ticking right boxes....just telling the story.....ratios allow level to exit or rev pos.....once i've got most of the move into next congestion zone i can take off bulk and allow to run


----------



## CanOz

FESX, same story....sort of.

Actually these days with a high DPOC from a lower open are tricky. The Kospi ended up on a tear right to the end today. Expect the same here, 2500 the DPOC...data out tonight tho but expect most of the action around 2500 to hold unless we see other time frame players.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Nice P day for the DAX yesterday, doesn't get much more bullish than that.


----------



## CanOz

Dax - Double Distribution. First one I've seen for a while...Value has been accepted lower...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Dax - Double Distribution. First one I've seen for a while...Value has been accepted lower...




second on news strength eh.....now that's out of the way.......


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> death roll into close of trade 20 mins after cash close (4.10 inc post-cash auction)
> 
> View attachment 49423




Great analysis Joules!

Apologies for having a dig at you, it's just that I'd mistaken this for the International markets "Banter" thread.


----------



## cynic

Ahh, the glorious DAX! I sometimes wonder why I bother to even analyse this index. 

Observations over the past few years seem to suggest that patience will readily reward trades in either direction! 

Fun for all the family!


----------



## CanOz

Wow, what a one way street on the Seng today!! Nice gap fill and then 'Lead Balloon' impersonation!


CanOz


----------



## notting

Yeah, felt like something bad was going around all over.
Just don't know what it is!


----------



## CanOz

Seems whatever the sellers are excited about, its just got worse...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Back to basics on my DOM reading, got the easy read DOM hidden and the IB DOM looks like part of NT now

All this on my laptop for practice!

CanOz


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Yeah, felt like something bad was going around all over.
> Just don't know what it is!




Oh it's a fricken hurrican in NY!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ha! Looks like TTN servers are in NYC!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

From Yahoo...



> 12:45pm: In New York City right now: All tunnels and bridges in and out of Manhattan are reported to be closed. *There are reports that the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange is under 1 metre of water. *There are photos of water flooding into subway stations and into the construction site at Ground Zero.




I would imagine that might take a while to clean up/fix?!


----------



## Trembling Hand

geesuz! I thought today was going to be slow!  Feels like 2008 all over again!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> geesuz! I thought today was going to be slow!  Feels like 2008 all over again!




Tell me about it, been a great day for DOM practice on the SIM! K200 was all over the shop and then i swapped over to Honkers and it was paying out all over the place....

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Well i totally stuffed up my perfect day...I missed the news at 4pm and managed to fade against a totally impulsive move into 2503 to the tick...in the process giving back all the days points. 

Every time this has happened to me, i think "WTF" and then "Sh**, news....!" and sure enough there has been some bullish news that I've missed and instead of trading with that flow, I'm trying to fade it...

Using the IB DOM has been great today though, i'm seeing orders being pulled and stacked, bergs etc., much easier than before.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Can anyone explain the recent rocket under the Asian markets butt?

There are other time frame participants entering the market in a big way... 

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Can anyone explain the recent rocket under the Asian markets butt?
> 
> There are other time frame participants entering the market in a big way...
> 
> CanOz




buyings not exclusive to asia


----------



## Joules MM1

of course, 5k bigs doesnt tell us if it was an account buying to get long or close shorts.....i'm guessing longs


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Well hello Honkers!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Well hello Honkers!!




Yes, its some sort of sick joke surely?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes, its some sort of sick joke surely?




Yeah its hard to tell sometimes between a sick joke and the HSI being the HSI....for me anyway! 4 lots riding it down from 22030's, I was more concerned about exits than causes! 

Few things getting some random spikes, ES and AUD. 

I'm guessing this is part election nonsense going on? First election I've watched on the markets I think.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I'm guessing this is part election nonsense going on? First election I've watched on the markets I think.




yep it will milk the uncertainty and rally on the result,


----------



## sammy84

US futures don't like Obama:

DJIA INDEX	 Dec12	 13,109.00	-92.00


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

sammy84 said:


> US futures don't like Obama:
> 
> DJIA INDEX	 Dec12	 13,109.00	-92.00




Yeah ES is down nearly 20 full points from last night's high. Tonight will be interesting.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Guys I don't think its a vote against anyone. Its just the game. Increase the volatility, increase the uncertainty, increase the volume, increase the people who will blow up today..........


----------



## notting

Obama won.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> yep it will milk the uncertainty and rally on the result,




Mitt concedes US futs back to flat (almost) everything else well into the green.

This games easy............


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> .i'm guessing longs




certainty or uncertainty......i'm certain the points are there.....several uncertain long swings today, thankyou very much


----------



## Aussiejeff

Trembling Hand said:


> Mitt concedes US futs back to flat (almost) everything else well into the green.
> 
> This games easy............




Yup.

Big rally there, Trembler....


----------



## CanOz

Crude oil was crazy last night! 4 percent down, tons of volume in the first few.hours...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Aussiejeff said:


> Yup.
> 
> Big rally there, Trembler....




Dude ya wanna look at the data before ya come and play. Over 1% rally after my comment. But sorry I'll try and add every move 10 steps in advance for those who just watch and don't play.


----------



## CanOz

Aussiejeff said:


> Yup.
> 
> Big rally there, Trembler....




Pretty much up and up until the close yesterday.

BTW, public holiday in Seoul today?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> BTW, public holiday in Seoul today?
> 
> CanOz




Opens 1 hour late today.

really..


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Opens 1 hour late today.
> 
> really..





Right, have they all got like a "No.1 Ally election party" hangover and wanted a little lie in??

Weird....


----------



## CanOz

Wow, turn your head for a second and wham!

Must be a Greek thing or something?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Must be a Greek thing or something?




LOL. Yeah the longs got it Greek style !


----------



## boofis

Is there something happening in the US of A at the moment? I got back from 3 weeks away and there's no volume on the treasuries :S


----------



## kid hustlr

boofis said:


> Is there something happening in the US of A at the moment? I got back from 3 weeks away and there's no volume on the treasuries :S




markets were open but it was some type of holiday today (can't remember which one)


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> markets were open but it was some type of holiday today (can't remember which one)




Its called Remembrance Day...

The bonds were closed, bank holiday.

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Hey kids,

Just thought I'd drop in and say hello. Been extremely busy in my new job and I'm moving back to Sydney this week to be closer to the base of operations and provde technical input in client meetings. I am going to miss a lot of things about Melbourne, but the temperature won't be one of them.

I'm looking at the current retracement in equities and thinking if it was a serious bear down move then credit would be leading a move to show it (like the TED spread stubborn rise in 2011). So where does that leave us? With one last leg up into the end of the year and probably an ugly blowoff top very early next year I guess. 

Of course there is always the chance that on the one time I decide not to play "Taleb" off this pattern it does a 1987 on us, but them is the tough decisions of a trader : 

I'm recently long a couple of Feb '13 straddles in XLF and XLE on the NYSE and also holding longs STW and SLF on the ASX from much earlier in the year (Jul and Feb respectively), trailing stops on those. I've refined my strategy down to basically a long volatility and a "short volatility" system and kicked out all the highly correlated stuff.

That's about it from me. Hope everyone is getting along well in the markets and enjoying the opportunities out there.


----------



## Trembling Hand

So another Japanese government/prime minister is good? NIKKEI up 1%


----------



## wayneL

Trembling Hand said:


> So another Japanese government/prime minister is good? NIKKEI up 1%




WAR IS PEACE, FREEDOM IS SLAVERY, and IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

All Proles know these things.


----------



## Trembling Hand

:frown:

Daily stop........ BOOM!!

Grrrrrr!

:alcohol:


----------



## notting

Palestinians picking a war with the Jews is hardly helping matters.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Daily stop........ BOOM!!
> 
> Grrrrrr!
> 
> :alcohol:





Lol ..... If I'm any reader of "Smiley" language TH ...... You had a crapper of a day, but a very good week!!


Can you share the trade (or the gist of it) that crapped the day out??   Understand if not, but if so ... much appreciated ... Cheers


----------



## notting




----------



## CanOz

Definatly due for a bounce...retest of the wedge break and then resume the downtrend. Maybe this will be the Santa Claus rally.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> Can you share the trade (or the gist of it) that crapped the day out??   Understand if not, but if so ... much appreciated ... Cheers




No single trade wrecks my day. Got to be a whole heap of crap trading. In Fridays case was a matter of just putting on a position a bit too soon and getting stopped out. Then it rolled back to my initial entry so I tried again which of course got stopped out again. This happened for about an hour either side of lunch. Finally I did the old flip-a-roo and of course you know what happens.  It breaks big time as per my first position. BOOM....sweep...cannot get out ..... All over Rover.....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> No single trade wrecks my day. Got to be a whole heap of crap trading. In Fridays case was a matter of just putting on a position a bit too soon and getting stopped out. Then it rolled back to my initial entry so I tried again which of course got stopped out again. This happened for about an hour either side of lunch. Finally I did the old flip-a-roo and of course you know what happens.  It breaks big time as per my first position. BOOM....sweep...cannot get out ..... All over Rover.....




Did you happen to catch that big break after lunch today? 400 i think...man that got thin in a hurry...then again after the retrace.

Of course i was a spectator

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Did you happen to catch that big break after lunch today




 yep


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> No single trade wrecks my day. Got to be a whole heap of crap trading. In Fridays case was a matter of just putting on a position a bit too soon and getting stopped out. Then it rolled back to my initial entry so I tried again which of course got stopped out again. This happened for about an hour either side of lunch. Finally I did the old flip-a-roo and of course you know what happens.  It breaks big time as per my first position. BOOM....sweep...cannot get out ..... All over Rover.....






Thanks for the rundown TH ...... sounds like my standard Forex trade ..... although my one buck per pip is a bit different to your mega contracts!!  

Actually looked a bit unlucky to get taken out on those first two trades. If one of those had stuck it would have been a totally different story.


----------



## boofis

How's the trading going Amegos? 




Not that I use anything like that for my own trading, I'm hoping some pattern (or variation) like that is going to bring some long term monies action into the treasuries one of these coming nights for what will hopefully be a nice trending night.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Honkers  Largest range day for 6 months?


----------



## avion

Got dragged down by China, missed most of it... How did you go TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> How did you go TH?




Best $ of the year actually.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Best $ of the year actually.




Goes to show...those daily stops really do let you play another day! 

Well done mate.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Got to admire the run this little puppy has put in.....

Dax Daily...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

New high......

wow...

CanOz


----------



## cynic

Tell me about it!

DAX has been trying to punch a hole in my grail for over a week now! 

Should it succeed - I'll have a wholly holier holey grail! 

Luckily my goose has been producing some lovely gold after grazing on the FTSE. That which was spilt by the grail has been saved by the goose! 

Thank heavens for the goose! It really saved my bacon!


----------



## CanOz

What the heck is going on at honkers today?

Someone likes stripping everything on offer, just cleaning out the offers for 30 points at a time....

CanOz


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Someone likes stripping everything on offer, just cleaning out the offers for 30 points at a time....




Sorry CanOz, the Kospi's been a bit boring today so thought I'd come over and play in the big boyz sandpit...


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Sorry CanOz, the Kospi's been a bit boring today so thought I'd come over and play in the big boyz sandpit...




Well you were certainly buying the dips with fervor! That's actually the first time in over 15 months of screen time that I've seen a buyer lift the offers for 30-40 levels like that. Pretty amazing to watch. If you were not watching the DOM you may have mistaken it for news, but the offers never thinned out like they do during news releases.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

What just happened to Gold?


----------



## CanOz

I guess the market likes the PMI number lol!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I guess the market likes the PMI number lol!




which one ?


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> which one ?




China services PMI i guess...? Thats the only number i have for his morning...

The HSI has been straight up since 930.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> China services PMI i guess...? Thats the only number i have for his morning...
> 
> The HSI has been straight up since 930.




hmmmm.....do i need a new calendar.....



> Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> Since 2009 Shanghai Comp. has been up 3% 20 times. Average return over next month = 4.8%.
> Expand
> 14m Bespoke Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> There have only been 2 other days this year (1/17 & 9/7) where the Shanghai Composite has been up 3%+.
> 
> Joules MM1 ‏@joulesmm1
> 
> HSI inv head and shoulders looks impulsive...XJO held up versus the SPX overnight which is prob probing stops...still leaning on pos signs


----------



## avion

China PMI was released last Saturday... what are you guys looking at?


----------



## CanOz

I don't know, i have no news feed but the market has gone one way today and its doesn't do that unless influenced by news...normally. Shanghai is up over 4%.

What are you trying to say there Joules...?

CanOz


----------



## avion

Phew, what a day, have not seen anything like this, well... since Monday!?! What, do we go short now!!!


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Phew, what a day, have not seen anything like this, well... since Monday!?! What, do we go short now!!!




bergs at 140....look out..


----------



## Trembling Hand

It was the HSBC China services PMI. It wasn't on the Forex Factory Calendar.

Though I think the move has more to do with talk out of China.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> It was the HSBC China services PMI. It wasn't on the Forex Factory Calendar.
> 
> Though I think the move has more to do with talk out of China.




I reckon 177 has the top


From www.tradingeconomics.com

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I don't know, i have no news feed but the market has gone one way today and its doesn't do that unless influenced by news...normally. Shanghai is up over 4%.
> 
> What are you trying to say there Joules...?
> 
> CanOz




poles apart on that one, mister C

how far do you have to go back to fish a story that says/drives a market is going up......nope to that one.....more buyers than sellers...makes an uptrend..... how many times do we see hard down days on good news.....a lot


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> poles apart on that one, mister C
> 
> how far do you have to go back to fish a story that says/drives a market is going up......nope to that one.....more buyers than sellers...makes an uptrend..... how many times do we see hard down days on good news.....a lot




I've not seen this kind of buying on no news Joules. I agree that there is aggressive buying and that explains the one way street but usually there is a reason that brings buyers in so aggressively. Other time frame players...

CanOz


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> It was the HSBC China services PMI. It wasn't on the Forex Factory Calendar.
> 
> Though I think the move has more to do with talk out of China.




Yep. Mr Xi...


----------



## Trembling Hand

H   S   I


L   O   L   !


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> how far do you have to go back to fish a story that says/drives a market is going up......nope to that one...




It was set up on Monday.

And when I say set up you know what type of _*setup*_ I'm referring to


----------



## avion

Go on TH, enlighten us newbies...


----------



## CanOz

There's been some huge size today....someone's gotta unwind a bit of this before the market closes...


----------



## CanOz

The HSI takes an hour for lunch....Does everybody get flat before lunch?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Me.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Me.




I wonder if they'll ever get rid of that silly lunch break....?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I wonder if they'll ever get rid of that silly lunch break....?




Hope not. I love it. 1 hour off to clear the head and relax.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Hope not. I love it. 1 hour off to clear the head and relax.




LOL, most exchanges stall for lunch anyway...


----------



## PinguPingu

'boom goes the dynamite'


----------



## cynic

PinguPingu said:


> 'boom goes the dynamite'




Looked to me more like a party popper than dynamite!

My grail's still holding, despite DAX best efforts to topple it, and the FTSE just can't quite seem to cook my Auric goose, try as it might.


----------



## CanOz

Italy's Monti has quit....







> European Market Outlook: Italy Set For Polls As PM Monti Resigns




CanOz


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Italy's Monti has quit....
> 
> CanOz




Aha! So that's why the P&L in one of my trading accounts just increased by over 1000 Euros. If only Monti could resign every day, my security in retirement would be assured!


----------



## CanOz

Well that was quite a spike...the HSI 301 to 428 in a few minutes

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Well that was quite a spike...the HSI 301 to 428 in a few minutes
> 
> CanOz




Thats a swift rejection of the previous high...we could see a move to the downside quickly here...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Thats a swift rejection of the previous high...we could see a move to the downside quickly here...




hope not......


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Thats a swift rejection of the previous high...we could see a move to the downside quickly here...




Good call! I got all messed up playing long on the arvo open.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Hey those who are with IB, has it been upgraded recently? Watching the ladder seems quicker than what I remember, like as though it's not 1 minute snapshots or whatever it is they use. Am testing TWS out on Linux but wouldn't have thought that would change how the data is recieved. Strange.

Might be wrong section for this admins, but figured more likely to be someone watching IB ladder in here than IB thread.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Hey those who are with IB, has it been upgraded recently? Watching the ladder seems quicker than what I remember, like as though it's not 1 minute snapshots or whatever it is they use. Am testing TWS out on Linux but wouldn't have thought that would change how the data is recieved. Strange.




Not sure just compared it to TT About the same. Though the T & S data from IB is just rubbish.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Not sure just compared it to TT About the same. Though the T & S data from IB is just rubbish.




Hmm interesting, yeah T&S has always been rubbish from IB, but speed on ladder definitely seems more "live", smoother and faster than what I remember, maybe I just haven't looked at it for a while. Cheers for checking TH 

I'll suss it out on the Dax in a bit and see how it goes.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Those big bids/offers of 100+ common on honkers? they mean anything or just spoof?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Those big bids/offers of 100+ common on honkers? they mean anything or just spoof?




Spoof head!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Spoof head!




Boo hiss! They never mean anything


----------



## Joules MM1

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Boo hiss! They never mean anything




not sure why it is but a slow death fade o the HSI is very satisfying to watch..... 

death race 2012 for slugs.....nice


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> not sure why it is but a slow death fade o the HSI is very satisfying to watch.....
> 
> death race 2012 for slugs.....nice




Did you see that 30 lot or so at 520? It managed to keep a floor under there for about 8 minutes before they pulled the rug out...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Did you see that 30 lot or so at 520? It managed to keep a floor under there for about 8 minutes before they pulled the rug out...
> 
> CanOz




ah...never pull the rug out till an idiot with too much size goes first.....sell the previous strength.....but.....sloooowly


----------



## Joules MM1

nadgers.....got the second sell wrong but it's running...not bad for cr@p data.....eh


----------



## CanOz

Well done....

I like how that push into 500 from that size in the bid sort of cleaned out the sellers for a bit...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Well done....
> 
> I like how that push into 500 from that size in the bid sort of cleaned out the sellers for a bit...
> 
> CanOz




you are _Ladder Giant_ 

you should consider making some vids....serious blag, man! 

..makes a diff when you look back at them......you could do some edu stuff.....for the folks on the 'homework' thread .......ahem


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> you are _Ladder Giant_
> 
> you should consider making some vids....serious blag, man!
> 
> ..makes a diff when you look back at them......you could do some edu stuff.....for the folks on the 'homework' thread .......ahem




You know I've actually got a Pro Copy of BBflashback now...I've made a few but i always seem to miss the best ones, wrong place wrong time...once I'm back doing this fulltime (soon i hope) I'll be able to do a bunch more. Then i've got to try and upload them, its a pain here in the PRC. 

The Dax is great DOM fodder these days..especially after it slips into a value area, that's when the boys like to play around a bit on the DOM.



CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Whoahhhh

Kopsi up!!

Mannnn, DOM moving about.  What's with the SENG?  Oh mannnn..... I'm such a hot shot!


Hang on!   Up she goes!

Whoahhhh

Great thread guys.  Joules get some charts happening please.  And don't forget Tremblers drink.  You're his b1atch remember.


----------



## CanOz

LOL...ok, nuff said GB....carry on.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> Whoahhhh
> 
> Kopsi up!!
> 
> Mannnn, DOM moving about.  What's with the SENG?  Oh mannnn..... I'm such a hot shot!
> 
> 
> Hang on!   Up she goes!
> 
> Whoahhhh
> 
> Great thread guys.  Joules get some charts happening please.  And don't forget Tremblers drink.  You're his b1atch remember.




Come on GB we all know you cannot afford the $50 bucks a month for that data.

Whats the RSI look like thou?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

fraak, joke session is moving around asf at the moment

Is FX counted as a international market?

EUR GBP all moving to the USD.... AUD is not following... and of course I'm long as it offered a better set up on the 2pm close!


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Come on GB we all know you cannot afford the $50 bucks a month for that data.
> 
> Whats the RSI look like thou?




TH, didn't you read the homework thread? You don't need data if you're confident!


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> TH, didn't you read the homework thread? You don't need data if you're confident!




Ohh... yes that magic juice is wonderful stuff apparently.


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> . AUD is not following... and of course I'm long as it offered a better set up on the 2pm close!



Getting some action now the Aussie bankers have gone to the pub.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Getting some action now the Aussie bankers have gone to the pub.




so true! feeling better about this trade going to let it run into EURLON session. SL basically at BE so not to lose.


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> so true! feeling better about this trade going to let it run into EURLON session. SL basically at BE so not to lose.




This aint helping you or my longs.....


----------



## CanOz

Quite a battle going on around 22480...once the shorts started to unwind it made for a nice grind up...


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> This aint helping you or my longs.....
> 
> View attachment 49947




Yikes...FFS!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> This aint helping you or my longs.....
> 
> View attachment 49947




that long was hit by the sellers.  what news service is that TH?

Took a GBPJPY 21 ema bounce that was good for 23 pips. salvaged the day. see chart. I am starting to wind up for the year, volumes will start to shrink. dose anyone trade up till last week before Christmas? Normally I close shop next week and come back 9th 10th Jan


----------



## >Apocalypto<

just sold the E$ @ 1.30694 .2 lots SL 1.30834 TP 1.30494 range break off a double top with lower high.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy that was a strange delayed reaction to the China PMI.  was long through it but let it go 10 minutes later for 70 points to then watch it explode another 100  

Sums up my year


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> just sold the E$ @ 1.30694 .2 lots SL 1.30834 TP 1.30494 range break off a double top with lower high.




short stopped, for 13 pips. Long now at the open of the 1 pm bar.  .3 lots


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy that was a strange delayed reaction to the China PMI.  was long through it but let it go 10 minutes later for 70 points to then watch it explode another 100
> 
> Sums up my year




Sums up my morning as well.

Bought something at 12c... held for 30 minutes and sold at 12c. Now 14c.

You just have to say, sometimes you are too quick for the market.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

skc said:


> Sums up my morning as well.
> 
> Bought something at 12c... held for 30 minutes and sold at 12c. Now 14c.
> 
> You just have to say, sometimes you are too quick for the market.




yeh feel u guys. i try to be as picky as i can, hate over trading... but its always the ones u leave or bail on that rub it in. been some hot cold results in the last quarter. great week washy one (repeat repeat) when i think i get in trouble when i am a robot that trades off a signal with no thought i normally do ok. love hate relationship this game.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Sums up my morning as well.
> 
> You just have to say, sometimes you are too quick for the market.



Ha! Why am Cursed so?



>Apocalypto< said:


> love hate relationship this game.




Yep after 10 years of this silly game I would have to report that the main emotions are,

80 % frustration, 
19 % feeling like I'm going to spew :crap:
2  % satisfaction. 











see why I'm a traders not an "invester"


----------



## tech/a

> 80 % frustration,
> 19 % feeling like I'm going to spew
> 2 % satisfaction.




Did you mean to do that---Trading 101!----%


----------



## skc

>Apocalypto< said:


> love hate relationship this game.




Sums it up well. Although I am having my best week this financial year + sitting at new equity high... so probably shouldn't complain too much 



Trembling Hand said:


> Yep after 10 years of this silly game I would have to report that the main emotions are,
> 
> 80 % frustration,
> 19 % feeling like I'm going to spew :crap:
> 2  % satisfaction.




I feel that, the longer I've traded (almost 4 yrs now), the more frustration comes. When you see more, you miss more (or you know you are missing more rather than completely ignorant about it).

I see increasing % of frustration as signs of progress...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

skc said:


> Sums it up well. Although I am having my best week this financial year + sitting at new equity high... so probably shouldn't complain too much




nice well done!

been a down up week for me. very different to last week. see how this eur long works out and tonight's LON US session.

The JPY has and is taking a beat down.


----------



## Trembling Hand

China up 5%  Now thats a Xmass rally!

What did the SPI do today? Oh yeah down 0.15% lol when are the closing the Aussie market its a joke.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Long now at the open of the 1 pm bar.  .3 lots




tp hit plus 21... taken a new long under the 21 but only a micro trade of .05 just for the reason the signal was there but due to the last 1 hour bar sell off, i am a little weary of how much drive the buyers have left. ent @ 1.30850

could also take a small long on GBPJPY at the close of current hour bar if it holds this low.


----------



## CanOz

DAX rejected 7621 for now and has gone back to 7600 ish....its like a magnet.

FYI,


canOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> DAX rejected 7621 for now and has gone back to 7600 ish....its like a magnet.
> 
> FYI,
> 
> 
> canOz




watching, thanks mister C

lookng for spx to make a slpash dash to 1403 is can make it will be nice set-up for a climb 1416 right now.....not far to go


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> watching, thanks mister C
> 
> lookng for spx to make a slpash dash to 1403 is can make it will be nice set-up for a climb 1416 right now.....not far to go




lulz....reindeer games


----------



## cynic

T'was the month before Christmas and all through my shacks

Not an index was stirring , not even the DAX!

So I decided to go short
And was suddenly caught 

By that jolly old man with the fat belly
Who'd decided to fly in with a ten percent rally!

As my shorts blew past the North Pole
I examined a great hole!
In one of my ledgers
I even had to hedge my own hedges! 

As my grail was squashed flat 
I said that's that!

But he suddenly let loose
Upon my golden goose!

Though I'd warned him never to pluck it
All he could say was oh ohh ohhh, .... it!

As I turned red
To Santa I said

'tis the season to forgive
And I know where you live!

So get ready to practice forgiveness!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> T'was the month before Christmas and all through my shacks
> 
> Not an index was stirring , not even the DAX!
> 
> So I decided to go short
> And was suddenly caught
> 
> By that jolly old man with the fat belly
> Who'd decided to fly in with a ten percent rally!
> 
> As my shorts blew past the North Pole
> I examined a great hole!
> In one of my ledgers
> I even had to hedge my own hedges!
> 
> As my grail was squashed flat
> I said that's that!
> 
> But he suddenly let loose
> Upon my golden goose!
> 
> Though I'd warned him never to pluck it
> All he could say was oh ohh ohhh, .... it!
> 
> As I turned red
> To Santa I said
> 
> 'tis the season to forgive
> And I know where you live!
> 
> So get ready to practice forgiveness!





LOL!


----------



## captain black

cynic said:


> T'was the month before Christmas and all through my shacks
> 
> Not an index was stirring , not even the DAX!
> 
> So I decided to go short
> And was suddenly caught
> 
> By that jolly old man with the fat belly
> Who'd decided to fly in with a ten percent rally!
> 
> As my shorts blew past the North Pole
> I examined a great hole!
> In one of my ledgers
> I even had to hedge my own hedges!
> 
> As my grail was squashed flat
> I said that's that!
> 
> But he suddenly let loose
> Upon my golden goose!
> 
> Though I'd warned him never to pluck it
> All he could say was oh ohh ohhh, .... it!
> 
> As I turned red
> To Santa I said
> 
> 'tis the season to forgive
> And I know where you live!
> 
> So get ready to practice forgiveness!




Lol +1 

Great to see some humour around the place, good stuff cynic 

Merry Xmas to all the other traders out there


----------



## avion

Merry Christmas!  :jump: :guitar: :xmastree


----------



## nysefloortrader

avion said:


> Merry Christmas!  :jump: :guitar: :xmastree




Looking at the S&P 500 and the inverse head and shoulder!

It doesnt look like it will be a merry xmas for the bears....or a happy new year. 

I think we are gunna see 1490 on the S&P very soon! If that happens, the BEARS WILL BE SPITTING CHIPS! haha.


----------



## Trembling Hand

nysefloortrader said:


> Looking at the S&P 500 and the inverse head and shoulder!
> 
> It doesnt look like it will be a merry xmas for the bears....or a happy new year.
> 
> I think we are gunna see 1490 on the S&P very soon! If that happens, the BEARS WILL BE SPITTING CHIPS! haha.




Oh no not the H & S call!!!

Sorry nysefloortrader as you are new around here I'll point out the rules. Firstly the H & S call is running at a woeful 14% correct rate across ASF. Secondly its banned from the big boys thread here . And thirdly I'm not so sure technically you can have a  H & S pattern taking the classic setup (but hey you're welcome to join the 86%).


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, Merry Christmas everybody!:wreath

CanOz:santa:


----------



## notting

Yes it's looking kinda strong.
However, just getting a little concerned about the new posturing over the cliff.
It almost looks like the Republicans are trying to *look like they are doing everything to compromise * without actually compromising anything that they know might actually get through the house. 
This way they can blame Democrats for sending the US over the cliff and call his administration a disaster for America, like Bushes actually was, without the help of the Democrats.  They have to get some kudos back some how.
Markets are not fearful because everyone thinks a solution will be brokered at the final hour.
But the way it's going, it might get a bit tense to say the least as C day dawns.
With capital gains likely to increase, me think it silly not to take a bit of that before Uncle Sam can.

Merry Cliffmess.:chimney


----------



## nysefloortrader

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh no not the H & S call!!!
> 
> Sorry nysefloortrader as you are new around here I'll point out the rules. Firstly the H & S call is running at a woeful 14% correct rate across ASF. Secondly its banned from the big boys thread here . And thirdly I'm not so sure technically you can have a  H & S pattern taking the classic setup (but hey you're welcome to join the 86%).




banned! LOL. what's this? Another trader bagging technical analysis, and giving stats, without knowing the first thing about TA in the first place?


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Yeah, Merry Christmas everybody!:wreath
> 
> CanOz:santa:




you too, mister C





hat tip 3bg for the find


----------



## Trembling Hand

The cliff!!


----------



## notting

Laughing!!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Well that was fun  just perfect timing for IB to have no orders going through lol, wishing I was back in the office for that one.


----------



## CanOz

Yup....Fiscal Cliff

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Why is the December contract (HSI) showing so much size? It seems like its rolling already?

Same yesterday.

I wish these guys would get three month contracts.

CanOz


----------



## skc

This fiscal cliff reminds me of the debt ceiling. Everybody seems to think that common sense would prevail.

But if they do resolve the cliff issue, it means the US balance sheet is going to be in worse shape... 

It's a bit like a sick person celebrating he doesn't need to take a bitter medicine.

So it wouldn't surprise me that we are set up for a fall either way (then again, there's no such thing as a surprise in the market...)


----------



## cynic

Dear Santa,

It took you a few days, but I am very glad to see that my message has been finally received and understood. 

As you are now only too well aware, I also have a team of little helpers. 

Mine happen to be highly skilled in the medieval art of renegotiation. 

I'm sorry that I had to instruct them to pay your quaint little cottage up north an unannounced visit this week (if only you'd taken me just a little more seriously - this courtesy may well have been avoided). 

As is evident by the cessation of your jolly laughter, I can see that you appreciated the generous serving of cocktails (you know the ones I mean, named after that Russian guy "Molotov")

Anyway, now that we have reached this new understanding I trust that you'll abstain from any further rallies until after I indicate that my short exposure is amply covered.

I've always been of the understanding that you differentiate between naughty and nice when making your annual deliveries.

As recently demonstrated by the immediacy of your response to the actions of my little helpers, it is now clear to me that you show greater respect for naughtiness, so I shall endeavour to accommodate your wishes throughout the coming years.

Merry Christmas and Happy new Year Santa!

P.S. I trust that the repairs to your cottage are progressing well.


----------



## nysefloortrader

skc said:


> This fiscal cliff reminds me of the debt ceiling. Everybody seems to think that common sense would prevail.
> 
> But if they do resolve the cliff issue, it means the US balance sheet is going to be in worse shape...
> 
> It's a bit like a sick person celebrating he doesn't need to take a bitter medicine.
> 
> So it wouldn't surprise me that we are set up for a fall either way (then again, there's no such thing as a surprise in the market...)




i love how they did this on a FRIDAY, and a friday that was OPEX friday, and then wait for it. On the date the world was meant to end!!!

Sneaky sons of beeeetches! 

Wonder what they have for us next week! ::::


----------



## Joules MM1

nysefloortrader said:


> i love how they did this




http://www.mrtopstep.com/headlines-or-algorithmic-trading/
excerpt


> ...two days of going up and 36-plus handles, the S&P futures got stretched out, meaning when the the S&P sells off and people get short they cover and get long. With the ranges as small as they are, the selling pushes the futures down into the sell stops and the short covering / buying pushed ....


----------



## cynic

nysefloortrader said:


> Looking at the S&P 500 and the inverse head and shoulder!
> 
> It doesnt look like it will be a merry xmas for the bears....or a happy new year.
> 
> I think we are gunna see 1490 on the S&P very soon! If that happens, the BEARS WILL BE SPITTING CHIPS! haha.




I think some of the bears may have had their prayers answered after all! (Mine certainly were-for the moment at least).

By the way, I notice you've met Trembling Hand. Did you happen to know that he trades professionally (i.e. he makes a comfortable living from trading) ?

P.S. Welcome to ASF!


----------



## notting

A Presidents Christmas break to remember.




Unfortunately the presidents Chrismas holiday was cut short when security discovered some shady looking characters sneaking up behind him.

Concerns were alleviated, however, when the shady looking characters clarified that they were just republicans looking to see if Obama was ready to cooperate over a cup of T.

"And we wish you a happy inauguration too Sir.  God bless The United States America."

John Boehner could not make the trip as he had already had too much to drink.


----------



## boofis

Nice trend on the Seng, anyone else getting a chunk of this? Who spoofed the 120 lot....T/H


----------



## notting

US House just passed the Bill
Now for the Debt Ceiling!


----------



## boofis

Anyone want to fund my drawdown? I'm trying to single handedly pay off US debt


----------



## Trembling Hand

Surprised there is no talk of a gap fill..!?





Maybe Tuesday night?


----------



## boofis

My crystal ball says how on earth did you deduce Tuesday night?
Drawdown real account so decide to trade sim mini honks today instead of giving any more back to the market and pick up 80 odd ticks: damn.


----------



## cynic

boofis said:


> Anyone want to fund my drawdown? I'm trying to single handedly pay off US debt




Much as I'd love to be able to assist, I am still recovering from the 4% gap in the DAX futures when the market reopened last Wednseday.

There's nothing quite like watching 6,000 Euros vanish from one's account. All in less time than it takes to blink an eye!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Much as I'd love to be able to assist, I am still recovering from the 4% gap in the DAX futures when the market reopened last Wednseday.
> 
> There's nothing quite like watching 6,000 Euros vanish from one's account. All in less time than it takes to blink an eye!




Ya know, that's what finally made me stop trading intra-day systems. I could't stand the ridiculous things that happened in front of my eyes...At least when you're trading discretionary you have an intuitiveness that algoes just can't replicate (yet).

EOD, no problem. Maybe its because I've been trading EOD for 7 years...

CanOz


----------



## skc

cynic said:


> Much as I'd love to be able to assist, I am still recovering from the 4% gap in the DAX futures when the market reopened last Wednseday.
> 
> There's nothing quite like watching 6,000 Euros vanish from one's account. All in less time than it takes to blink an eye!




That hurts... but why would you hold over the holidays when you know there was a big market event over that time...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> That hurts... but why would you hold over the holidays when you know there was a big market event over that time...




Cuz ya think its gonna go your way?


----------



## cynic

skc said:


> That hurts... but why would you hold over the holidays when you know there was a big market event over that time...



I'm dedicated to trading my systems and flatly refuse to let those petty little things like fiscal cliffs, GFC's and European defaults dissuade me.


----------



## skc

cynic said:


> I'm dedicated to trading my systems and flatly refuse to let those petty little things like fiscal cliffs, GFC's and European defaults dissuade me.




How many fiscal cliffs and GFC's were back tested in your system?


----------



## cynic

skc said:


> How many fiscal cliffs and GFC's were back tested in your system?




None whatsoever!


----------



## boofis

cynic said:


> Much as I'd love to be able to assist, I am still recovering from the 4% gap in the DAX futures when the market reopened last Wednseday.
> 
> There's nothing quite like watching 6,000 Euros vanish from one's account. All in less time than it takes to blink an eye!




If 6000Euros vanished from my account, well, there wouldn't be an account haha
Next 1000 trades, your system will make it back!


----------



## cynic

boofis said:


> If 6000Euros vanished from my account, well, there wouldn't be an account haha
> Next 1000 trades, your system will make it back!




Thanks for that boofis. Luckily I've already managed to recover approx. 2-3K already. Another week or two and I'll probably be back in clover.


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Thanks for that boofis. Luckily I've already managed to recover approx. 2-3K already. Another week or two and I'll probably be back in clover.




Kudos Cynic...you got a good stomach on ya!


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Ya know, that's what finally made me stop trading intra-day systems. I could't stand the ridiculous things that happened in front of my eyes...At least when you're trading discretionary you have an intuitiveness that algoes just can't replicate (yet).
> 
> EOD, no problem. Maybe its because I've been trading EOD for 7 years...
> 
> CanOz




The additional flexibility offered by discretionary trading certainly has its advantages - particularly with respect to the application of intuition. 

One of the most efficient stock pickers I ever met knew virtually nothing about the stockmarket (or the stocks she selected). She'd simply say there's something about the sound of that company's name that I like, and sure enough, a month later there'd be an announcement and it'd rocket to the moon!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> One of the most efficient stock pickers I ever met knew virtually nothing about the stockmarket (or the stocks she selected). She'd simply say there's something about the sound of that company's name that I like, and sure enough, a month later there'd be an announcement and it'd rocket to the moon!




Women's intuition on steroids, a god!...:venus:


----------



## boofis

HSI: 
23 385 is like


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bit slow but Bot fat finger yesterday on the Kospi,



> Good morning,
> 
> Regarding the futures fat bid incident yesterday, here we summarize a related article from a local business press, Money Today.
> 
> Around 2pm on January 7th, there emerged 120,000 contracts of KOSPI200 index futures at 268.20pt.
> 
> The trading amount was KRW 15.6 trillion, and the order was from Hong Kong DMA account, using the DMA pipeline of KB Investment & Securities ("KB I&S", the KRX member firm).
> 
> According to one person at KB I&S, "The accident was due to a foreign investor's trading system glitch. KB is now discussing related issues such as margin with KRX."
> 
> 
> As between 20,000 and 80,000 contracts were filled due to this system glitch, the buyer will have to deposit the futures margin by noon on January 8th.
> 
> The 13.5% margin on the filled buy orders are estimated to be maximum KRW 2 trillion.
> 
> If the trade is not liquidated by 12pm, KB I&S must deposit the margin, and the investor needs to pay the margin to KB I&S.
> 
> 
> One person at KRX said, "There will be no obligation if KB I&S unwind the buy trade before 12pm tomorrow. There is no regulatory measure to help them to be exempt from the margin requirement."
> 
> However, since the daily volume of KOSPI200 futures is between 100,000 and 200,000 contracts, it is not going to be easy for the investor to liquidate the open position at one time.
> 
> One derivatives analyst commented, "It would not be easy to liquidate the whole open position by 12pm. If there is unwinding action tomorrow morning, this will end up with sharp basis decline that may trigger massive program selling."
> 
> 
> Seeing the pattern of the issued trades, the error trade continued to be filled, not cancelled immediately. Total 76,000 contracts were filled out of the whole 120,000 contracts until the end of the market.
> 
> Market experts attributed that it took lengthy to cancel the erroneous trades becasue the orders were filled by 1 lot (total 120,000 times) due to algorithmic logic bug.
> 
> 
> We will keep paying attention to this issue, and give you heads-up.
> 
> Thank you very much.
> 
> 
> Best regards,
> 
> Derivatives Sales & E-Trading
> 
> Samsung Securities Co., Ltd.
> 
> 11/F, Samsung Main Building


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Bit slow but Bot fat finger yesterday on the Kospi,




I was worried it was you...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> I was worried it was you...




"20,000 and 80,000 contracts were filled due to this system glitch"

Thankfully my recent "glitches" are not 80,000 contracts! LOL what a f up.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> "20,000 and 80,000 contracts were filled due to this system glitch"
> 
> Thankfully my recent "glitches" are not 80,000 contracts! LOL what a f up.




It's all good if he can put up the KRW 2 trillion margin needed. That's only less than A$2B.

Peanuts really...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Peanuts really...




Yep I'm sure his "algorithmic logic bug" can sort out 2Bill from somewhere....


----------



## boofis

Did the market at least bounce after finding that much size at one level?


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Did the market at least bounce after finding that much size at one level?




For less than 2 min........

Traders are pretty good now at playing bot fat fingers..... in spite of the media hysteria.


----------



## boofis

Ouch. I guess that's the end of his trading. 
It seems that ordinary people just want something to blame for their losses and the media is choosing Bots lately.
MHI: Short 238 covered 194. 
I hate my mental shift after making a few good trades I start to worry about losing it and then trade poorly and do lose some of it; Must change this.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Surprised there is no talk of a gap fill..!?
> 
> View attachment 50243
> 
> 
> Maybe Tuesday night?






This is looking like a distinct possibility...1451 atm.

Maybe not tonight, but the other markets look intent on filling the gap.

CanOz


----------



## cynic

skc said:


> It's all good if he can put up the KRW 2 trillion margin needed. That's only less than A$2B.
> 
> Peanuts really...




Quite right!

As we always say, what's a couple of billion bucks between bots?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Surprised there is no talk of a gap fill..!?
> 
> View attachment 50243
> 
> 
> Maybe Tuesday night?






CanOz said:


> This is looking like a distinct possibility...1451 atm.
> 
> Maybe not tonight, but the other markets look intent on filling the gap.
> 
> CanOz




Well after I turned on my sell bot Tuesday as promised  and we only dropped a bit clearly it will need a couple of trill $ more to really do its job.

hey I tried.....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Well after I turned on my sell bot Tuesday as promised  and we only dropped a bit clearly it will need a couple of trill $ more to really do its job.
> 
> hey I tried.....




The DAX filled it, all but a tick or two anyway...


----------



## Trembling Hand

H
S
I

LOL


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> H
> S
> I
> 
> LOL




How's that for some new highs lol.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> H
> S
> I
> 
> LOL




FFFF a-r-k


----------



## boofis

Were there any announcements or was it purely trader driven lol?
Where's them darth faders at?


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Were there any announcements or was it purely trader driven lol?




China new exports up 14%...


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> China new exports up 14%...




That'll do it, guess I gotta find me a more asia region specific news source lol, glad I wasn't trying to get short before that


----------



## Trembling Hand

big divergence/spread between cash and futs on the HSI.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> big divergence/spread between cash and futs on the HSI.




How does this happen? I figured there was enough people out there keeping an eye on things like this that arbitrage is near impossible?


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> How does this happen? I figured there was enough people out there keeping an eye on things like this that arbitrage is near impossible?




Not enough bots???


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> How does this happen? I figured there was enough people out there keeping an eye on things like this that arbitrage is near impossible?




Nah in a market that moves like this where futs stops are going off like nutz they will get way out of wack in a thin market like HSI.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah in a market that moves like this where futs stops are going off like nutz they will get way out of wack in a thin market like HSI.




If there were more bots, couldn't they keep up with this?


----------



## boofis

uneventful open on the seng.


----------



## boofis

Momentus occasion on the treasuries, I just witnessed the single biggest order I've seen of 5090 contracts which hit the bid milliseconds after I got a fill phew!


----------



## cynic

Bit of a bizzare night! I've been yo yoing in and out (of profit for 2013) all session long! Still, I've seen bigger swings in my time so I'm not complaining.


----------



## McLovin

Trembling Hand said:


> "20,000 and 80,000 contracts were filled due to this system glitch"
> 
> Thankfully my recent "glitches" are not 80,000 contracts! LOL what a f up.




The guy who owns the firm concerned was on a plane at the time. I guess ignorance is bliss, until you land at least.


----------



## Trembling Hand

McLovin said:


> The guy who owns the firm concerned was on a plane at the time. I guess ignorance is bliss, until you land at least.




Its gone against him ever since too. Ouch!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> If there were more bots, couldn't they keep up with this?



Here is another example. Wasn't a nasty run but the Index was 15 points behind for 10 min on the down move and then the same on the bounce.





Index in Blue futs gold.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Aint honkers funny. 15 minutes to put on 250 points then the next day and a half to grind back. Luv it...


----------



## CanOz

I'm guessing you've been short since the open...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I'm guessing you've been short since the open...




As usual CanOz I've managed to pick the right game to play on the day but haven't hung in there all the way. Including hitting out short in the very first few seconds........ covered 3 minutes later.......


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> As usual CanOz I've managed to pick the right game to play on the day but haven't hung in there all the way. Including hitting out short in the very first few seconds........ covered 3 minutes later.......




I'm starting to see some things on the open now, but its still quite erratic...

The GAP fills are most reliable signal I've found by far on the DAX and HSI, one today on the HSI and one on the DAX yesterday, good for a few points if not a trend change. Do you trade the gap fills often?

There is sometimes some size on the book where the prior close was and if it gets hit and not pulled then the market can reverse...Probably your 100 lot too i suppose...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nah I haven't the concentration to hang on all day for a gap fill. That's long term investing......


----------



## cynic

God bless the DAX gap fills! 
They've rescued my grail from the brink of extinction.  
It's now all but fully recovered from the impact of the New Year's DAX gap!


----------



## notting

cynic said:


> They've rescued my grail from the brink of extinction.




Glad to hear u survived.
Take it easy!


----------



## cynic

notting said:


> Glad to hear u survived.
> Take it easy!




Thanks for your good wishes notting.


----------



## boofis

When trading a market in a foreign currency and you get a little bonus because of the exchange rate coming back to AUD, does this have tax implications I should be keeping track of? 
Ignorance is bliss


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> 1. When trading a market in a foreign currency and you get a little bonus  2. because of the exchange rate coming back to AUD, does this have tax implications I should be keeping track of?
> Ignorance is bliss




1.) Not always. When trading US stocks long only the DX tends to correlate opposite to the equity markets, whereas the AUD tends to correlate, so once you take you profits they are repatriated at an FX loss.

2.) I'm almost positive that if its capital gain they'll be interested.....move to Thailand.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> When trading a market in a foreign currency and you get a little bonus because of the exchange rate coming back to AUD, does this have tax implications I should be keeping track of?
> Ignorance is bliss




The FX P&L goes to your overall trading P&L which is what the Tax man wants to know, and tax.


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> The FX P&L goes to your overall trading P&L which is what the Tax man wants to know, and tax.




Thanks mate.


----------



## boofis

Some fairly serious buying on that up move on the Seng. Retests incoming?


----------



## boofis

boofis said:


> Some fairly serious buying on that up move on the Seng. Retests incoming?



No retests of highs at least haha.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Another rather ugly pull back from new highs.





No idea what it was doing up there anyway. Kospi down 0.8% Nk down 1.1%


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Another rather ugly pull back from new highs.
> 
> No idea what it was doing up there anyway. Kospi down 0.8% Nk down 1.1%




Yeah, was surprised at the spike...no news either, other than car sales...

Given it all back again...

CanOz


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> God bless the DAX gap fills!
> They've rescued my grail from the brink of extinction.
> It's now all but fully recovered from the impact of the New Year's DAX gap!




The new years DAX gap is now behind me and I've also retrieved the profits spilled when "not so jolly now" Santa flattened my grail! 
(I do wonder how the repairs to his cottage are progressing.)

Happy 

days 

are 

here 

again!...


----------



## boofis

What does one conclude when the tape shows big lots coming through (multiple 2000 and 3000 lots) but no price movement in the slightest even after most announcements finished for the day and they were positive for US currency.... 
"Accumulation"? For a clear out of everyone's stops when they try and short this... 




Volume hasn't been anything to write home about but there's just been big orders in no short supply for the past couple nights. 

Well, I guess that's how I would think if I had millions and wanted to get myself some more LOL (Disclaimer: this 'speculation' could be why I don't have millions  ).


----------



## cynic

Boofis, that sounds like a job for VSA experts!

Personally, I am a little wary of reading too much into price action now that the World's printing presses are working overtime replenishing waning economies. 
However, I am by no means the best person to ask, the reason being that my trading strategies only require a sufficiently liquid market (irrespective of trend) to be practicable. 
(I won't elaborate too much on my methods here as many would be mortified by my divergence from more fashionable practices).


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> (I won't elaborate too much on my methods here as many would be mortified by my divergence from more fashionable practices).




Ya never know though.


----------



## boofis

Sengs liking those 500s and the STW followed the theme of strength this morning with a nice move up.



Anyone know of a free online site that gives semi reliable Nikkei updates? Even better if it has all the asian region like investing.com does for the rest of the world.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Ya never know though.



Very prescient T/H! I didn't realise that you were also accomplished in IA (Intuitive Analysis)-Gotta love those sheep entrails!

To those ASFers that bravely PM'd me, I'll respond in the next day or two but please be aware that I still consider myself a "wannabe" trader. 

My trading methodology embodies CA (Cynical Analysis). In effect my systems are designed by cynic for cynic. I will consider offering my perspectives to those that enquire, however, specifics of the systems that I am trading will not be offered, and please remember what I said - I'm still a "wannabe" !
So, in effect,  me telling you how I do it may be tantamount to instructing you on how :
"You too can become a "wannabe" trader just like cynic!".


----------



## cynic

What the DAX giveth one session, the DAX doth taketh away the next!

1,200 Euros!! Bummerrr! 

The goose is still enjoying the FTSE though-thank god for geese!


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI action in 3 mins.


----------



## boofis

Gotta love a 150tick range on a 5min bar haha.


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Gotta love a 150tick range on a 5min bar haha.




Oh yeah....  was long into the ann. Then went all in just as it reversed.....!! 

Had to do the dump and flip..... Ouch.... 

All better 1 min later... hahah..

I feel a little sick now.... :freak3:


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh yeah....  was long into the ann. Then went all in just as it reversed.....!!
> 
> Had to do the dump and flip..... Ouch....
> 
> All better 1 min later... hahah..
> 
> I feel a little sick now.... :freak3:




haha you're a mad man. I just went short once the dom pulled up in the upper atmosphere lol.


----------



## CanOz

WTF...the STW is so difficult to setup on NT

What is the bloody front month of this stupid contract anyway??? Is it January or not????

Turns out i need to use the 24/7 session template, bloody hopeless, how the h*** are you supposed to know that crap without spending all morning on the NT forum....:frown:

Arrrrrgggghhh.....

CanOz


----------



## notting

Christine Lagarde's done her best to put a wet hand on all the happiness over night.
Still a most hated rally sure is continuing to twist the knife.
My suspicion that the consensus is, 'that bond money will have to go somewhere.'


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> WTF...the STW is so difficult to setup on NT
> 
> What is the bloody front month of this stupid contract anyway??? Is it January or not????
> 
> Turns out i need to use the 24/7 session template, bloody hopeless, how the h*** are you supposed to know that crap without spending all morning on the NT forum....:frown:
> 
> Arrrrrgggghhh.....
> 
> CanOz




Everything i read says that March is the current contract, however the volume doesn't look right....:frown:


----------



## Trembling Hand

STW.... Nin...ing





Its a monthly, Use Jan.


----------



## CanOz

Thanks TH, why don't they just say 'monthly' instead of this crap 







> 2 nearest serial months and 12 quarterly months on a March, June, September and December cycle.





Are you using a Kospi session template??? OR 24/7?

CanOz


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> What the DAX giveth one session, the DAX doth taketh away the next!...



and doth giveth back again! Hooray!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Something of a trend developing with the delayed China PMI action. I spewed up my position last month too early.... not this time......


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> Something of a trend developing with the delayed China PMI action. I spewed up my position last month too early.... not this time......




 hit my daily stop trading STW open. To the victor go the spoils


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee there is some volume being done on the Seng today. Two very angry gentlemen going at each other!!  


EDIT: Talk about manipulation!


----------



## CanOz

Wow, some serious people have turned bullish...must have been the Tuna


----------



## burglar

CanOz said:


> Wow, some serious people have turned bullish...must have been the Tuna




Wow! Do you have an extra screen with a fish finder?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Wow, some serious people have turned bullish...must have been the Tuna




Yeah its a funny day. Nk just been sitting on a pile of bids all day - up 2.5%

Kospi been going down all day (after Samsung rolls over) down 1.25% on vol three days in a row.

Honkers looks to be caught in the middle.

wondering is thats where the extra vol is coming from. Some poor old index arb bot cannot make sense of it all and has become angry,


----------



## CanOz

There was 1100 contracts sitting at 900 on the NK. I thought it would have been a spoof for sure, then it got tested with a few and then completely destroyed...so much stuff from off market, big volumes. Not what i'm used to seeing at all.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

For all the monkeys who think insto's waste their time running bots on $200,000 stocks need to have a look at this,







$2,500,000,000 worth of business done in 40 min!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

To add some meat, have a look at the bid stuffing and the sweeps to hit the stops.... Impressive!



I want one......


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Reminds me of the DAX, seen some BIG sweeps in that before. 

Wonder what the process is of actually implementing a bot is, from creating it to "turning it on" and trading with it, very curious to find out if anyone knows, lemme know


----------



## Gringotts Bank

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Reminds me of the DAX, seen some BIG sweeps in that before.
> 
> Wonder what the process is of actually implementing a bot is, from creating it to "turning it on" and trading with it, very curious to find out if anyone knows, lemme know




I imagine the very first stage would be to wine and dine the finance and technology professors of the top Ivy League colleges and tell them in no uncertain terms that it would be very worth their while to identify emerging talent as soon as it appears... wink wink.  

When you have your man identified, rip him out of college, pay him a huge salary and get him developing algos for your fund before he realizes he could have made more working for himself!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> When you have your man identified, rip him out of college, pay him a huge salary and get him developing algos for your fund before he realizes he could have made more working for himself!




These bots which trade 100s of mil in minutes are not the work of *a* person. They require teams and teams of teams, programmers, traders, risk managers etc. Thats why you can be sure they don't waste their time on the stocks that the punters are always complaining about. A team with an annual salary of millions cannot waste their time on $250,000 a day turnover.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Blissful! Good old fashion Honkers action.


----------



## CanOz

Amazing how dependent the AUD and the Chinese markets are, even the K200...The NK on the other hand didn't blink and has been range bound all morning. As far as i can tell the only thing that's correlated at all to the NK is the Yen...Is there any other instrument that i should keep an eye on while focusing on the NK?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Blissful! Good old fashion Honkers action.
> 
> View attachment 50726




Looks like all the fellas who got long decided to jump ship together


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Blissful! Good old fashion Honkers action.




Bit of a delayedd reaction?! Didn't the PMI came out at 12:15? Yet the move really only started at ~12:20.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Bit of a delayedd reaction?! Didn't the PMI came out at 12:15? Yet the move really only started at ~12:20.




Yeah. And it really messed me up. The ann was actually at 12:00, so before the open. i got knocked around in the first 15 min but when it got going it soon fixed me up.  



CanOz said:


> T As far as i can tell the only thing that's correlated at all to the NK is the Yen...Is there any other instrument that i should keep an eye on while focusing on the NK?




Thats pretty much been a theme since "Abenomics" came in. Been just doing its own thing in La-La-land. It will come back in line after time.



kid hustlr said:


> Looks like all the fellas who got long decided to jump ship together




LOL, anyone that got long the first stop sweep woulda been out 1/2 a day latter. That volume this morn wasn't johnny come late punters - that was 'real police'


----------



## sinner

Things that make you go hmmm....


----------



## kid hustlr

God how good is the wire


----------



## notting

Spanish shorters have been let out of their cages.
Gone straight for the banks.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Been a wonderful time on the EURUSD&EURJPY last few days... a real run away trend. AUDUSD still stuck in nowhere land


----------



## CanOz

Bill Gross just thinned out the DAX.

Well done...

CanOz


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Bill Gross just thinned out the DAX.
> CanOz




Also Bill said bond inflows have been great in January meaning stock buying paper is coming in from cash and money market funds!
My God! It hasn't even started!!!


----------



## tech/a

notting said:


> Also Bill said bond inflows have been great in January meaning stock buying paper is coming in from cash and money market funds!
> My God! It hasn't even started!!!




Some are going to be badly smashed this year.
Who's selling to who?


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> Some are going to be badly smashed this year.
> Who's selling to who?




So you'd short at this point having still not re entered your momentum system?
The smart money will just stay in Bonds and is still flowing into bonds from smart stock selling into the rally?


----------



## tech/a

notting said:


> So you'd short at this point having still not re entered your momentum system?
> The smart money will just stay in Bonds and is still flowing into bonds from smart stock selling into the rally?




Still trading the DAX and FTSE.
No interest in a portfolio.

Your right when you say



> My God! It hasn't even started!!!



.

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/02/01/bill-gross-economy-is-headed-for-credit-supernova

There *WILL* be a time for a good Short.
Around May now when the FED has to cough up or shut up!

So they have until May to minimise exposure.
Smart money selling into Dumb Money. (Stocks).


----------



## notting

Fuel for your fire!

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000145182[/video]


----------



## tech/a

My fire?


----------



## notting

Sell off in May, I guess being a short on the DAX!


----------



## tech/a

May----- be


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> Still trading the DAX and FTSE.
> No interest in a portfolio...




+1

That wasn't you on the other side of my FTSE trades last month was it?

My goose got thoroughly plucked!


----------



## CanOz

Interesting comment from Jason Leavitt in regards to drawing trend-lines on daily charts....



> I'm going to continue not drawing trendlines on the daily charts because I don't think there are obvious lines which do a good job graphically representing where support or resistance are likely to be. Other than a 1-week dip in late December, the market has rallied uninterruptedly for almost three months. I don't think trendlines will tell us when or where the move will end.




He's heavily driven by the market internals when doing a weekend summary in prep for the week ahead. Relies less on trend-lines now, the market just seems to blow through them so often.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Interesting comment from Jason Leavitt in regards to drawing trend-lines on daily charts....
> 
> 
> 
> He's heavily driven by the market internals when doing a weekend summary in prep for the week ahead. Relies less on trend-lines now, the market just seems to blow through them so often.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Trend line or S&R lines?
When you say blows through them that to me 
seems to be an S&R line rather than a trend line.?



> That wasn't you on the other side of my FTSE trades last month was it?



My Size wouldnt sap up much Im afraid!
Youll only see me around for the first Hr and a half.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Trend line or S&R lines?
> When you say blows through them that to me
> seems to be an S&R line rather than a trend line.?




He's referring more to diagonal trend lines on daily's. He still uses them on the weeklies. The point he's trying to make is that the technical (trend lines) don't seem to matter as much on the daily charts...to much upward momentum at the moment. 

CanOz


----------



## sinner

First day back in the discretionary seat for 2013.

Managed a quick 2:1 short on the EURUSD at full size. Having been watching the charts for a week or two now I am loving the current "type" of patterns in the FX. Very consistent and clean low vol->high vol transitions in the EUR and AUD, easy pickings using a channel breakout and MA for trails.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> easy pickings using a channel breakout and MA for trails.




Wish I could say the same about my part of the world! VERY extended.......


----------



## CanOz

Nothing like sweeping the bid with some size and nothing happening...


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> View attachment 50732
> 
> 
> Things that make you go hmmm....




Buy ALL the straddles!


----------



## sinner

Must have all indexes *NOW*...except the DAX...she can wait...


----------



## CanOz

Sinner i'm a complete numpty with options...but are you betting that the indices will do anything BUT range?

CanOz


----------



## notting

sinner said:


>




Laughing. 
Great picture
Reminds me of something I saw the day after I got married!


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Sinner i'm a complete numpty with options...but are you betting that the indices will do anything BUT range?
> 
> CanOz




I'm basically betting realised vol in a day/week/month from now will be higher than todays implied vol. On the Qs.

Term structure charts were just for fun.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> I'm basically betting realised vol in a day/week/month from now will be higher than todays implied vol. On the Qs.
> 
> Term structure charts were just for fun.




That's gotta be a sure thing?? Or very high probability...yeah? What about historical examples of this, what was the probability then?

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> That's gotta be a sure thing??




Generally not, no? Vols generally mean revert from high levels to low levels, just look at VXX. Even the Nikkei volatility index does it like that.



> Or very high probability...yeah? What about historical examples of this, what was the probability then?
> 
> CanOz




I calculate it on a more heuristic than historical basis, except for comparing realised vol to its long term average as a filter. I used to only trade on one side of the long term avg but now I implement a confidence model instead. I would say, roughly, more of my straddles fail than succeed. 

Here is an example quote from a NYorker article about Taleb and Empirica
http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm


> At Empirica, by contrast, every day brings a small but real possibility that they'll make a huge amount of money in a day; no chance that they'll blow up; and a very large possibility that they'll lose a small amount of money. All those dollar, and fifty-cent, and nickel options that Empirica has accumulated, few of which will ever be used, soon begin to add up.
> 
> By looking at a particular column on the computer screens showing Empirica's positions, anyone at the firm can tell you precisely how much money Empirica has lost or made so far that day. At 11:30 A.M., for instance, they had recovered just twenty-eight percent of the money they had spent that day on options. By 12:30, they had recovered forty per cent, meaning that the day was not yet half over and Empirica was already in the red to the tune of several hundred thousand dollars. The day before that, it had made back eighty-five per cent of its money; the day before that, forty-eight per cent; the day before that, sixty-five per cent; and the day before that also sixty-five per cent; and, in fact-with a few notable exceptions, like the few days when the market reopened after September 11th -- Empirica has done nothing but lose money since last April. "We cannot blow up, we can only bleed to death," Taleb says, and bleeding to death, absorbing the pain of steady losses, is precisely what human beings are hardwired to avoid.




I am quoting this mainly to give you an idea of the expected probability of structural long vol success, not necessarily touting the idea of always being long vol.


----------



## CanOz

So unless you are doing this regularly, the chance of success is pretty slim...?

Interesting to see how you go...Taleb is always betting on the swan yeah?

Love to see his record....

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> So unless you are doing this regularly, the chance of success is pretty slim...?




?? It's a bet on the tails rather than the mean. That's all. You size it like a regular position. I have a model for trading long straddles on a small basket of ETFs. It loses more than it wins but the winners win more than the losers lose. 



> Interesting to see how you go...Taleb is always betting on the swan yeah?
> 
> Love to see his record....
> 
> CanOz




Define record? The whole idea of Empirica (someone correct me if I'm wrong) was simply to provide a cheap tail hedge against regular investments. So their returns aren't as important as whether or not they were a good tail hedge. I am pretty sure Empirica is closed up shop now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

low volume HSI open. Beware of the rocket.


----------



## tech/a

Contagious
SPI just got one--(a rocket)


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Contagious
> SPI just got one--(a rocket)




Oh dear...


Spew-a-rama!

:bloated::flush:


----------



## sinner

Watching paint dry on my AUD longs, gonna kill them here and call it a week. I think I netted 2 points today all up.


----------



## cynic

sinner said:


> Watching paint dry on my AUD longs, gonna kill them here and call it a week. I think I netted 2 points today all up.




2 points, eh!

Well make sure you don't spend them all at once!!

The cheek of this market! 

How dare it make you sweat for your profits!!


----------



## cynic

The FTSE's had my goose in a flap for most of this week!

It was looking pretty sickly last thursday, but seems to have turned the corner and is now (hopefully) on the mend.

My grail on the other hand, just reached a 20 week record! Yippeee!

It's now time for me to open that bottle of savings brand lemonade - the one that's been kept on ice for celebration of such momentous occasions!


----------



## sinner

Anyone got an opinion on the London Open for AUDUSD? wtf was that? I guess an ugly distribution?


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> The FTSE's had my goose in a flap for most of this week!
> 
> It was looking pretty sickly last thursday, but seems to have turned the corner and is now (hopefully) on the mend.
> 
> My grail on the other hand, just reached a 20 week record! Yippeee!
> 
> It's now time for me to open that bottle of savings brand lemonade - the one that's been kept on ice for celebration of such momentous occasions!




Looks like I'm going to have to replenish my lemonade stores (savings brand of course!) since the grail has managed to achieve yet another high. So it appears to be reasonably well suited to the DAX at this early stage. Could the next drawdown be it's Waterloo?

The goose did briefly surface for air during the past few days, but only to get dunked again - !@#$ing FTSE!


----------



## cynic

The Grail seems to be having a flat night tonight but the Goose has managed to resurface yet again! Now let's see if it can regain it's previous altitude before a black swan comes along and tries to !@#$ it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> Now let's see if it can regain it's previous altitude before a black swan comes along and tries to !@#$ it.




Ha! Gee first day back after a little hol getting powder up my nose and it was a nasty one!

F knows why!?


----------



## CanOz

lulz...you've been boarding you **ick!

Got any happy snaps?


----------



## kid hustlr

Got up early to watch the US markets today.

Absolutely loving it, shame about the horrid timezone.

Trying to do it old school today.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Gee first day back after a little hol getting powder up my nose and it was a nasty one!
> 
> F knows why!?
> 
> View attachment 51041




It's good to have you back T/H and also great to see that the markets have provided a nice calm day for you to gently ease yourself back into work after your holiday break.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> The Grail seems to be having a flat night tonight but the Goose has managed to resurface yet again! Now let's see if it can regain it's previous altitude before a black swan comes along and tries to !@#$ it.




I think the Brits must have declared open season on geese recently - my Goose just got dunked again!

And as for my Grail, the DAX has belted it pretty hard over the past couple of days, leaving a 6,000 Euro dent in the open profits! !@#$ing %^&#$s!

It looks like that next bottle of savings brand lemonade is going to be staying on ice for quite a while longer!


----------



## kid hustlr

US markets getting hit hard into the close.

On volume to.


----------



## havaiana

Commodities hammered, rumours there may be a commodity hedge fund that blew up and the predators have come in to help finish them off


----------



## skyQuake

FOMC minutes were a bit of a surprise to the downside. Lots of talk about not just if QE is ending, but HOW.


----------



## Trembling Hand

F me!  Not often you have the pleasure of hitting your daily stop in the first 40 secs of the day!!

Welcome back hey!


----------



## Trembling Hand

HA! Not often you get to tickle it back to green in a few minutes of play either! Pheww 







I need a holiday.


----------



## kid hustlr

Ridiculous open.

For those trading Asian markets, what are the major ones to keep an eye on for lag/lead indicators?

If I'm watching Taiwan for example (STW), I'll keep an eye on the hang seng, the kospi, the SPI and the nikkei.

Any other I've missed?

chop fest at the moment btw.


----------



## CanOz

Shanghai is a little on the nose this morning....lol...


----------



## Trembling Hand

This is what I look at,


----------



## kid hustlr

Is that the German Bund in there? You are keen.

Cheers mate.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Is that the German Bund in there? You are keen.
> 
> Cheers mate.




I gotta say there isn't a huge amount of lead from anything at the moment. Open and re-opens at lunch times give you a bit but its pretty wild and wooly the last month or so.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> I gotta say there isn't a huge amount of lead from anything at the moment. Open and re-opens at lunch times give you a bit but its pretty wild and wooly the last month or so.




Yeah ok, I'm just trying to get a feel for how the all intertwine.

I do feel a lot more comfortable if I'm leaning towards a short on the STW and then I look across and K200, NK and the HSI are all pushing their lows though.

This is a sample size of about 4 trades mind you.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> I do feel a lot more comfortable if I'm leaning towards a short on the STW and then I look across and K200, NK and the HSI are all *pushing their lows* though.




Oh!? Thats when I'm getting long.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh!? Thats when I'm getting long.




Yeah but you trade the HSI. I assume you look like this:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Jeesuz that seller on the Seng is vicious. 2000 contracts in a minute. 

Then follows it up with 3000 3 minutes later! :1zhelp:

Talk about manipulation!


----------



## kid hustlr

So the Kospi is fun


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> View attachment 51085
> 
> Jeesuz that seller on the Seng is vicious. 2000 contracts in a minute.
> 
> Then follows it up with 3000 3 minutes later! :1zhelp:
> 
> Talk about manipulation!




Good thing you're getting long !


----------



## cynic

I'm not quite sure what it is that they've been smoking in Deutschland lately, but my grail's copped one hell of a hiding this past week.

Shame on you DAX! How dare you do mean and nasty things to my precious Grail! How's an honest trader to earn a dishonest Euro when you misbehave so? Naughty, naughty DAX! It's about time that you started behaving yourself because I am now keeping a much closer eye on you! Consider yourself warned!


----------



## kid hustlr

Didn't they sell off ES today. Bonds up big (after opening lower to) and then there's the JPY. Nikkei should be fun today, over/under 5%?

Do any big funds still run the carry trade through the JPY? Anything leveraged just would have been creamed last night.

EDIT: Z/H has nikkei down 6% based on correlations looks my line is off


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> So unless you are doing this regularly, the chance of success is pretty slim...?
> 
> Interesting to see how you go...Taleb is always betting on the swan yeah?
> 
> Love to see his record....
> 
> CanOz




Hohoho up ~30% on the VXN


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Didn't they sell off ES today. Bonds up big (after opening lower to) and then there's the JPY. Nikkei should be fun today, over/under 5%?
> 
> Do any big funds still run the carry trade through the JPY? Anything leveraged just would have been creamed last night.
> 
> EDIT: Z/H has nikkei down 6% based on correlations looks my line is off




6%!! I wouldn't be trading that idea! Thats a 1 in 10 year event.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone notice how strong the AUD was last night?   What have we become the new flight to safety currency?


----------



## tech/a

We're not diluting ours!

Once the printing stops--if it stops---when it stops--then youll see a strengthening in that currency.
In the meantime--


----------



## kid hustlr

Could be that no overseas investors are unwinding positions in our market also.

Some serious support shown on the SPI over the last few days. (1 week/30 min bars)


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee the Italian voters may like more Bunga Bunga parties but the traders certainly don't! Euro Stoxx futs down 3.5%


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee the Italian voters may like more Bunga Bunga parties but the traders certainly don't! Euro Stoxx futs down 3.5%




and an Italian bond auction coming up later....


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee the Italian voters may like more Bunga Bunga parties but the traders certainly don't! Euro Stoxx futs down 3.5%




For each of the last 3 years, selling at first sign of Europe troubles has been the right strategy. These usually build up over a few months leading to sharp retreats around May-Oct. 

Do people expect a repeat of what happened in the past 3 years, or will it be different this year? Will "what ever it takes" continue to hold the confidence up? 

And here's some great bunga bunga party pics

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...erlusconis-bunga-bunga-pictures-revealed.html


----------



## notting

I have found that sitting back on the couch whatching TV and counting to 3 is often quite accurate.
I'm up to 2.
It's not 1,2,3 and she goes at 3eeeeee - like chucking your fat cousin into the dam.

It's woaw *1*, talking heads - "it's ok", waaaaaw *2*, talking heads "it's ok,"  waaaaahw *3*, talking heads "it's ok."  *AAAAAHHHHHHHH*

Top got taken out again in the states last night which means there needs to be a very much heightened theme or new one to get some action back, Itally will do for a starter.

I'm really, really enjoying watching Switzer.  
He's done this big boast add 'we were right' about having done the white knuckle ride.  The swaggers looking a little shaky!!!  
Not looken so cocky right now!


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> For each of the last 3 years, selling at first sign of Europe troubles has been the right strategy. These usually build up over a few months leading to sharp retreats around May-Oct.
> 
> Do people expect a repeat of what happened in the past 3 years, or will it be different this year? Will "what ever it takes" continue to hold the confidence up?
> 
> And here's some great bunga bunga party pics
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...erlusconis-bunga-bunga-pictures-revealed.html




I've always thought you should post more


----------



## havaiana

Not much of a bounce in risk in Europe/US overnight, it's all still looking pretty pretty weak


----------



## skc

notting said:


> I have found that sitting back on the couch whatching TV and counting to 3 is often quite accurate.
> I'm up to 2.
> It's not 1,2,3 and she goes at 3eeeeee - like chucking your fat cousin into the dam.
> 
> It's woaw *1*, talking heads - "it's ok", waaaaaw *2*, talking heads "it's ok,"  waaaaahw *3*, talking heads "it's ok."  *AAAAAHHHHHHHH*
> 
> Top got taken out again in the states last night which means there needs to be a very much heightened theme or new one to get some action back, Itally will do for a starter.




I couldn't understand what you are trying to get across 



kid hustlr said:


> I've always thought you should post more




More post on the market or more post with bunga bunga party pics?


----------



## notting

skc said:


> I couldn't understand what you are trying to get across




I'm saying you often get three kind of pre-shocks then the earthquake.  
I’ve never looked for it technically it's just something I've observed from the news flow.  
So far I've counted 2.

And I was talking about the DOW which made a new high before it slipped on Silvio.


----------



## Trembling Hand

EVIL rollover on the new contract!! 

Yesterdays in blue,


----------



## nysefloortrader

*Just in the last few days, the S&P summation is clearly on a SELL THIS MARKET signal. 

Summation is very good, and I am sure we are going to see some trouble for the markets in MARCH / APRIL

Check out the chart below. *




You do not even need the summation, you can clearly see the last week or so, big money is coming out of stocks and equities and into USD and BONDS. 

My guess is this will continue for the next several weeks, and I do not want to be long the market for at least MARCH / APRIL.... my thoughts are a good sized dip is coming.

I am currently short some of my portfolio and looking for more downside in the next several weeks. Patience will be needed, but My guess is you do not want to be long the market the next few months....that could mean pain for you.


----------



## notting

It would seem highly unlikely that there is not a third wobble on the international markets tonight given the way the ASX performed today.
ASX has been outperforming ever since the last rate cut was factored in.
Even with a weaker AU today we still managed to tank harder than some of the big boy dividend payout %s,

I doubt very much that there will be a rate cut tomorrow but if there is we will be below parity very shortly as opposed to shortly.

The reaction on our markets can also be partly blamed on the Chinese capping housing speculation which is a good move.  However, we seem to have forgotten that the Chinese are pouring billions and billions into the bottom end new housing which will require plenty of resources.
It's a tiger economy.  Don't believe anything else.  
The market tells us that every time they try to do something mildly sensible. 
When the internal building of ghost cities stops. 
It will stop. 

People are likely to react to the sequester regardless of recent attempts to water it down.  Republican hatred for democratic moves usually expresses itself with tantrums on the Big Board.  The techies may then confirm it's a secular bull in a bigger bear, still.

Then all we need is a bit more crap out of Europe and things could be looking dark again for a while.

When are the German elections anyway?  
Once there over there will not be such a concerted need to paint everything so rosy.

Another interesting thing is that it is "new money" behind much of the rally not, "the great rotation."
That may be a powerful force but it's usually where the seasoned pros get all their profits from!

If markets US and FTSE (FTSE is the only sensible market in Europe) wobble tonight, it will be my *no 3.* in the count down till severe correction.

"There is just nothing we can see that could really bring this market down at the moment." has become quite the quotation lately and we all know what that means.


----------



## chops_a_must

Well, they're trying pretty hard at the moment.


----------



## notting

chops_a_must said:


> Well, they're trying pretty hard at the moment.




People talking it down or for markets to wobble?


----------



## sinner

nysefloortrader said:


> *Just in the last few days, the S&P summation is clearly on a SELL THIS MARKET signal.
> 
> Summation is very good, and I am sure we are going to see some trouble for the markets in MARCH / APRIL
> 
> Check out the chart below. *




Are you actually a NYSE floor trader? Why do you use NASDAQ breadth lol. I am a Summation Index user, not sure I agree with your interpretation of what a PSAR swing from here means (2 months of poor returns?) or even why you're using PSAR on it?

Not hard for the Summation Index (basically the 19,39,1 MACD of Cumulative Ratio Adjusted A/D) to turn off its swing after being at such elevated levels for so long. 

I'd note the NYSE Cumulative A/D is still quite strong and along with NASDAQ Cumulative A/D still remains above its 19EMA.


----------



## sinner

This is a good topic on the article, hope you appreciate it, took me 10 mins of googling to find one which explains it the way I think is right.

http://dkreport.blogspot.com.au/2007/06/market-breadth-does-it-really-matter.html


----------



## notting

notting said:


> The reaction on our markets can also be partly blamed on the Chinese capping housing speculation which is a good move.  However, we seem to have forgotten that the Chinese are pouring billions and billions into the bottom end new housing which will require plenty of resources.
> It's a tiger economy.  Don't believe anything else.




It's all been about building China.  
The people are irrelevant, leadership hasn't cared about what happens to them, who wins, who loses.  
Politically connected developers make the money. What happens after that?
Doesn't matter.  
Build China make money out of the people and rule is what matters
One day China's so called immerging middle class with their 'limited' choice for investestment will realise they are just slaves too.


[video]http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CBSNewsVideo+%28News+Video%3A  +CBSNews.com%29[/video]


----------



## nysefloortrader

sinner said:


> Are you actually a NYSE floor trader? Why do you use NASDAQ breadth lol. I am a Summation Index user, not sure I agree with your interpretation of what a PSAR swing from here means (2 months of poor returns?) or even why you're using PSAR on it?
> 
> Not hard for the Summation Index (basically the 19,39,1 MACD of Cumulative Ratio Adjusted A/D) to turn off its swing after being at such elevated levels for so long.
> 
> I'd note the NYSE Cumulative A/D is still quite strong and along with NASDAQ Cumulative A/D still remains above its 19EMA.




Hi, Im a full time trader yes, in the morning I look at lots of things that help me analyse the markets. The summation is just one, but if you ask any good trader, it is not 100% accurate (nothing is) but its very very good. Like I said I look at lots of things on the market, and have done so for many years. Its always better to do lots of analysis and a few solid trades.   PSAR has nothing to do with it, if you understand how breadth charts work, and the equation and my time guesstimates are going on past and previous moves which are relative too. 

Even if the S&P / Nasdaq goes up some more, the summation and key breadth charts are saying there is trouble coming. I do not like being short in a bull market, but I do play these sell offs, and any little spurt of green higher, I think will be a bull trap, and think the bears can really do some damage in the next several weeks if they want. 

Again these are all guesses, but we will see what happens.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Thats some ambush on the lunch open. Was expecting it to get extended but not that fast and far!!


----------



## CanOz

Shanghai too, obviously happy with the exports?

Why wouldn't the AUD rally to that?


----------



## CanOz

The FTSE, DAX and Co., gap up pre cash, open and see the DAX tag 8000...then start to sell off...is this a classic blow off top?


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Shanghai too, obviously happy with the exports?
> Why wouldn't the AUD rally to that?




People don't seem to equate Raw material imports with Chinese exports.
The Raw materials are largely to do with the big build.
That's my guess.

Is a little strange that 6 Trillian dollar pipeline of building to come isn't getting any one too excited yet.
People not believing it will get done?


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> People don't seem to equate Raw material imports with Chinese exports.
> The Raw materials are largely to do with the big build.
> That's my guess.
> 
> Is a little strange that 6 Trillian dollar pipeline of building to come isn't getting any one too excited yet.
> People not believing it will get done?




Yeah, tend to agree, When they announce a major infrastructure project the AUD and the SPI do nicely.

On your second point i think again that its more of the "concrete"  announcement to go ahead...Specific.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Good old fashion smack around going on in the HSI. It's been years since this constant sloppy execution has been happening! Who said bots control the market. This has been dudes with fingers.:shoot:


----------



## Trembling Hand

The crickets and I are enjoying this nonsense anyway...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> The crickets and I are enjoying this nonsense anyway...




Anyone been looking or trading this nut bags game last few weeks? No bots??!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

As an example of the change. From a quick eye balling of a long term 1 min chart with a 40 Bar ATR the lowest March reading has not gone below the average 40 Bar ATR for Feb! Happy times...


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> As an example of the change. From a quick eye balling of a long term 1 min chart with a 40 Bar ATR the lowest March reading has not gone below the average 40 Bar ATR for Feb! Happy times...




Yeah, been watching the NK a bit and trading the TW here and there...The swings are better on your market though. 

Whats the increase in volatility from? All the jawboning at the CPCC?

Also, why do you reckon there aren't as many bots? They just shut them off?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Whats the increase in volatility from? All the jawboning at the CPCC?




Dudes just getting stuff done, without bots locking it up is what it feels like.



CanOz said:


> why do you reckon there aren't as many bots? They just shut them off?




They just blow up I reckon. She aint an easy road to riches, especially when we keep getting nutty futs rollovers. Last time it rolled there was a 100 point gap. Thats gotta hurt the arb algos..... especially when ya talking a few 1000 contracts...


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Dudes just getting stuff done, without bots locking it up is what it feels like.
> 
> 
> 
> They just blow up I reckon. She aint an easy road to riches, especially when we keep getting nutty futs rollovers. Last time it rolled there was a 100 point gap. Thats gotta hurt the arb algos..... especially when ya talking a few 1000 contracts...




Time to re-program ya reckon...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Whats the increase in volatility from? All the jawboning at the CPCC?




Hey, thinking of this whats the chances of some rousing speech over the weekend that lifts Honkers and Shanghai come Monday?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey, thinking of this whats the chances of some rousing speech over the weekend that lifts Honkers and Shanghai come Monday?





Oh no, you thinking of holding over the weekend?

I honestly don't know what they're up to. I know that they announce Premier today, but it's all done I think....

Will see if I can find out when it wraps up.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Oh no, you thinking of holding over the weekend?




Nah just playing. Wouldn't surprise me though.


----------



## avion

'The decision by the euro zone* to force* bank depositors in Cyprus to contribute towards a bailout, a first in the euro zone debt crisis, could hurt other peripheral nations, the euro and the global stock market rally, analysts warned.'

Wouldn't this p**s you off as a depositor. Looks like down week!


----------



## notting

There is the huge population of 1 million is cyprus, how many of those who have over $100,000 in the banks, which is what is going to be taxed, would be so small it's a joke.


----------



## Trembling Hand

notting said:


> There is the huge population of 1 million is cyprus, how many of those who have over $100,000 in the banks, which is what is going to be taxed, would be so small it's a joke.




It will raise EUR5.8bn so it not too small. And everything under 100,000 still gets hit  6.75%!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> There is the huge population of 1 million is cyprus, how many of those who have over $100,000 in the banks, which is what is going to be taxed, would be so small it's a joke.




No joke - Russian tax haven.....


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> No joke - Russian tax haven.....




Laughing!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee the HSI has been smashed lately. the Daily looks real sick..


----------



## CanOz

Doesn't it look ill, almost no warning either, one nasty candle after the 24000 and then boom, down she goes...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Doesn't it look ill, almost no warning either, one nasty candle after the 24000 and then boom, down she goes...
> 
> CanOz




Yeah its been real nasty selling too. I was thinking about my comment that it has seemed bot free lately. I'm pretty sure there is less Arb Bots locking it up than there was a few months ago but what if the Hedgies are now running bots so good they look like old school mongrels?? Why fight the prop traders when you can get them onside and work with them??  Now that would be a smart bot.


----------



## kid hustlr

notting said:


> There is the huge population of 1 million is cyprus, how many of those who have over $100,000 in the banks, which is what is going to be taxed, would be so small it's a joke.




What about the impression this gives to other smaller EURO nations?

if Im a local Spaniard with money in the bank I'd be getting pretty nervy.

Risk off pretty hard today, only outlier being gold which rallied early but then reversed through the day.


----------



## CanOz

Just listening to the Bloomy, basically this is the only solution. If they don't approve this there could be one Bank go under straight away, total loss of deposits and another one shortly after.

It could be a better deal than the alternative.

Markets looking to open down 2% according to the spread betters...

I don't think it will be too bad, until its voted on.

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Just listening to the Bloomy, basically this is the only solution. If they don't approve this there could be one Bank go under straight away, total loss of deposits and another one shortly after.
> 
> It could be a better deal than the alternative.
> 
> Markets looking to open down 2% according to the spread betters...
> 
> I don't think it will be too bad, until its voted on.
> 
> CanOz




I think it'd be worse if they voted against it. At the end of the day the average citizen is screwed either quickly via the deposit tax, or slowly over time via higher taxes / lower welfare payments. Obviously the slow medicine seems more palatable but the effect is the same ultimately.

I posted an article on the Cyprus thread. 

We should see calm in our markets by tmr and then prob buying by Wed lunch.


----------



## CanOz

Bond yields are up...



> 15:09(IT) Italy 10-year gov't yield tests 4.75%, higher by over 15bps from Friday's close
> 15:08(ES) Spanish 10-year gov't yield moves above 5%; higher by over 15bps from Friday's close (related EWP )
> 15:05(ES) Spanish 10-year gov't yield at 4.95% vs. Friday's close of 4.90% (related EWP )
> 15:05(IT) Italy 10-year gov't yield at 4.68% vs. Friday's close of 4.60% (related EWI )
> 15:04(DE) German 2-year Govt yield moves back into negative territiory; first time since early Jan - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## sinner

I had it rough in the markets today.

Total 6 trades placed in AUDUSD. First 5 trades all losers.

Sixth trade I caught long at 70% of full size, 1.0352 almost perfectly on the current intraday swing low. Just covered 80% of my position now which paid off all my losers and got a tiny parcel left over to run, with stop at 1.0353.

:bonk:


----------



## sinner

Just to clarify, my style is generally to pick the middle of a movement rather than the tops or bottoms so this was almost certainly luck on my part, I found today to be rather exhausting.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I had it rough in the markets today.
> 
> Total 6 trades placed in AUDUSD. First 5 trades all losers.




Boy I love those days  I set a new record earlier this year. 17 trades in a row went bad!!


----------



## Vixs

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy I love those days  I set a new record earlier this year. 17 trades in a row went bad!!




To someone that's not making a hundred trades a day that'd be enough to pack your bags and go home haha.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sheeish its getting ugly in euro land. ...... and i'm getting cut to bits in honkers!!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheeish its getting ugly in euro land. ...... and i'm getting cut to bits in honkers!!




Woo hoo, bring it on...

In the middle of script updates on Ami so totally blind at the moment:scratch:


----------



## Trembling Hand

What a bloody dogs breakfast that was today!


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> What a bloody dogs breakfast that was today!




lulz.....you werent alone !


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Anyone on this dax? Having a nice slide!


----------



## tech/a

FTSE.


----------



## Trembling Hand

The Ruskis have pulled the plug on their side of the bail out!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

pretty easy short on the seng opening at last weeks high, at least for a little while


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> pretty easy short on the seng opening at last weeks high, at least for a little while




Yeah and it keeps on giving. Too bad I flipped half way into it....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah and it keeps on giving. Too bad I flipped half way into it....




Yeah I chickened out around 257


----------



## sinner

I managed to scrape a few good pips today, nothing really exciting though, to suit the chart. All the fun happened last night?


----------



## Trembling Hand

There goes the Euro!

Take that HSI longs..............


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Take that HSI longs..............




Take that longs alright  not far from the weeks low now, dafaq


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Take that longs alright  not far from the weeks low now, dafaq




Sheeshish!! She's getting killed by someone...... insatiable seller!!

Wish I had the nackers to hang, would of been a nice end to the month...... 

Look at China................. 3.66%........ down


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheeshish!! She's getting killed by someone...... insatiable seller!!
> 
> Wish I had the nackers to hang, would of been a nice end to the month......
> 
> Look at China................. 3.66%........ down




Reckon, seller is giving it a thrashing! So persistent, been waiting for it to flip around, still waiting, just keeps getting smashed.


----------



## sinner

Yeeehaw, I caught this one right on the cuff and riding it down with a tight trail. 

A whole 10 pts on the AUDUSD, :badass:


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Yeeehaw, I caught this one right on the cuff and riding it down with a tight trail.
> 
> A whole 10 pts on the AUDUSD, :badass:




it's still going.......


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> it's still going.......




Re-entered on the lows with another tight stop, probabilities are less on this one though so at much lower size.

Liquidity providers remain strong AUD net longs.


----------



## sinner

I reckon I'm gonna have to stop trading AUDUSD and find another pair or instrument for my discretionary activities soon. It's not as risk on/risk off sort of trade as it used to be, more like USDJPY now. I like and understand FX, so any suggestions on a pair anyone likes to trade during Asia hours would be appreciated.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I reckon I'm gonna have to stop trading AUDUSD and find another pair or instrument for my discretionary activities soon. It's not as risk on/risk off sort of trade as it used to be, more like USDJPY now. I like and understand FX, so any suggestions on a pair anyone likes to trade during Asia hours would be appreciated.




Agree its a completely different instrument to what it has been right up to 6 months ago.

What about AUDJPY?


----------



## sinner

I do actually get very good spreads on AUDJPY so should consider it. The other thing I was considering was to find a large cap stock I like and trade that, but after having traded 24h FX markets for a while now I find it very difficult to get a hold of the intraday charts for stocks and the gapping messes up my technicals.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> I do actually get very good spreads on AUDJPY so should consider it. The other thing I was considering was to find a large cap stock I like and trade that, but after having traded 24h FX markets for a while now I find it very difficult to get a hold of the intraday charts for stocks and the gapping messes up my technicals.




Why not trade an ETH contract like the ES?


----------



## sinner

If I were to trade index fut I would like to pick an Asian one. 

My main issue with indices is that they generally move counterintuitively to what I'd expect as an intraday FX trader, a lot of the setups I like appear with less frequency and the profitable ones end up having a much higher correlation to my EOD signals so it's better to just keep my index trading to EOD. Also it's very easy for me to get relatively high frequency sentiment data on FX, I can't do that on index futs.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> For each of the last 3 years, selling at first sign of Europe troubles has been the right strategy. These usually build up over a few months leading to sharp retreats around May-Oct.
> 
> Do people expect a repeat of what happened in the past 3 years, or will it be different this year? Will "what ever it takes" continue to hold the confidence up?




It's looking like history repeats for the time being. The European markets have moved down and needs to hold the current resistance level. The XJO is clearly marking 5000 as resistance. China has been moving down since Feb as well...

Cyprus is going to grab the headline for the next week or two, and the real crunch may come if another country gets dragged into it. 

I am still holding some longs but only at ~50% size compared to Feb - and it wouldn't take long for me to get out of there completely...


----------



## nysefloortrader

skc said:


> It's looking like history repeats for the time being. The European markets have moved down and needs to hold the current resistance level. The XJO is clearly marking 5000 as resistance. China has been moving down since Feb as well...
> 
> Cyprus is going to grab the headline for the next week or two, and the real crunch may come if another country gets dragged into it.
> 
> I am still holding some longs but only at ~50% size compared to Feb - and it wouldn't take long for me to get out of there completely...




yes, is it just me or are the major news channels getting really BULLISH out there right now. 

We all know what happend last time everyone got bullish. 

The second quarter is well known to be a profit taking quarter on the market, but we shall see.


----------



## Joules MM1

there's something in that for all of us.....


----------



## crown

Joules MM1 said:


> there's something in that for all of us.....





Hahahaha.......


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Looks like I'm going to have to replenish my lemonade stores (savings brand of course!) since the grail has managed to achieve yet another high. So it appears to be reasonably well suited to the DAX at this early stage. Could the next drawdown be it's Waterloo?
> 
> The goose did briefly surface for air during the past few days, but only to get dunked again - !@#$ing FTSE!




After numerous dunkings throughout most of the past quarter, my prize Goose has finally taken flight, regaining its former altitude just prior to its ascension to a new annual high.

Regretfully, that bottle of savings brand lemonade is going to have to remain on ice for quite a while longer as the DAX Grail has a grimmer tale to tell. 

Yes! The DAX has indeed struck yet again and the unthwartable has somehow been thwarted!

Vale DAX Grail. You were mighty. Unfortunately the DAX proved mightier!

(Future Attractions: The Grail Phoenix - Coming soon to a bourse near you!)

On a happier note, it just so happens that the recently deceased Grail is survived by a twin named AbiGrail.
AbiGrail has now been deployed and is thus far finding the FTSE (to which she is better suited) modestly rewarding.

Meanwhile, I've set the meanest grandmother of all my geese onto that dastardly DAX. 
So DAX, don't bother crying to me in the coming months! You brought this all on yourself when you dis'd my precious Grail!!
(Who was it that said revenge wasn't sweet?)


----------



## skc

Joules MM1 said:


> there's something in that for all of us.....




Awesome. This clip never gets old. 

Now is there a version about flow / mood trading out there?


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> I reckon I'm gonna have to stop trading AUDUSD and find another pair or instrument for my discretionary activities soon. It's not as risk on/risk off sort of trade as it used to be, more like USDJPY now. I like and understand FX, so any suggestions on a pair anyone likes to trade during Asia hours would be appreciated.




Trade balance numbers come in significantly better than forecast and previous. I am long. AUDUSD moves only 10 pts.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Trade balance numbers come in significantly better than forecast and previous. I am long. AUDUSD moves only 10 pts.




I'm interested to see how the AUD moves this week as the nonsense with N.Korea plays out. Will tell a lot as to how far away the Skippy has moved from a risk trade to the new world currency! 

D and I'm only half joking!)


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm interested to see how the AUD moves this week as the nonsense with N.Korea plays out. Well tell a lot as to how far away the Skippy has moved from a risk trade to the new world currency!
> 
> D and I'm only half joking!)




It's getting full retard out there, with ACBs stepping in on any low they can spot as a buying opp for Aus govvies and the RBA sitting on all the highs trying to "smooth" them out.

I don't think the AUD is designed for this sort of action without commensurate increases in export flows. Somethings gotta give.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Extraordinary smash down on The HSI this morning!






Look at the volume!!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Extraordinary smash down on The HSI this morning!
> 
> 
> View attachment 51642
> 
> 
> Look at the volume!!




Yeh it got Nuked!


----------



## sinner

JPY got nuked too last night by the BoJ it seems. I haven't placed any discretionary trades today but my FX EOD model has me unlevered long SEKJPY this month. TBH I was expecting the short JPY trade to get killed after March performance, pleased to see it's still got some legs.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> JPY got nuked too last night by the BoJ it seems. I haven't placed any discretionary trades today but my FX EOD model has me unlevered long SEKJPY this month. TBH I was expecting the short JPY trade to get killed after March performance, pleased to see it's still got some legs.




The Jap market has gone into a QExtreme frenzy. I have never seen a day where the Jap goes up 3% while HK is donw 2.5%. The whole region is feeling the Jap earthquake it seems.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> The Jap market has gone into a QExtreme frenzy. I have never seen a day where the Jap goes up 3% while HK is down 2.5%. The whole region is feeling the Jap earthquake it seems.




Yeah and add the 3% move up yesterday from lows to close on the NK. Kospi opens down a tad and does a pretty good impression of a lead balloon too. Have a look at the vol on the Seng.... morning sess has done a full days biz. Gee someone is doing some work.........! ....... my head hurts


----------



## kid hustlr

lol @ the JGB!

cant post a pic but 10 year jap bonds traded limit down twice (almost 3 times) then ran 200 ticks the other way, finally settling down now.


----------



## baby_swallow

SGXNK
After it went to stratosphere this morning, it eventually fell and just awhile ago filled the
overnight high gap.
The day candle looks like a shooting star.


----------



## Joules MM1

best clueless quote of the day "hangseng goes down on birdflu fears" cnbc


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> best clueless quote of the day "hangseng goes down on birdflu fears" cnbc




Speaking of headless....




 I've been trading like a headless chook today. 20 mil turn over....... 200 bloody dollars profit  IDIOT!!


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Speaking of headless....
> 
> View attachment 51652
> 
> 
> I've been trading like a headless chook today. 20 mil turn over....... 200 bloody dollars profit  IDIOT!!




http://vimeo.com/17477153


----------



## CanOz

On no news...


----------



## chops_a_must

"Bird flu." Lmao.


----------



## skc

Can someone explain the potential short term consequences of BoJ's QE-to-the-extreme actions?

I know it will drop the Yen, raise Japanese equities and reduce Jap bond yields. But what about other markets? From what geographies and asset classes will the funds flow to / from?

For instance, I'd expect the $A / yen or $NZ / yen carry trade to dial back up by the millions of Mrs Watanabes.
I also thought that local institutions might shift weight into Japanese equities to chase the gain. While non-Japan institutions might want to withdraw their Yen exposures before the currency plunges even more...

But these are just my uninformed guesses. 

Anyone like to explain better or seen a good article?



chops_a_must said:


> "Bird flu." Lmao.




Actually read that somewhere else so it's not just CNBC... although I doubt that's the reason for today's fall. SARS may be. H7N9? Not likely.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Speaking of headless....
> 
> View attachment 51652
> 
> 
> I've been trading like a headless chook today. 20 mil turn over....... 200 bloody dollars profit  IDIOT!!




Hows that work
230 contracts $10 hk a tick / contract.
$230 profit?
Isn't it moving $2300 a tick?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Hows that work
> 230 contracts $10 hk a tick / contract.
> $230 profit?
> Isn't it moving $2300 a tick?




You need a maths teacher.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> You need a maths teacher.




Nah still don't get it nor does the maths guy?

Happy for you to show me the fool.----- anyone


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> Can someone explain the potential short term consequences of BoJ's QE-to-the-extreme actions?
> .




I have a lot to say on JPY, but will just say in relation to other assets: 

So long as JPY remains a risk off currency, declines in JPY will work their way through to most asset classes as a decline in volatility == "BoJ put" sort of action. The big risk arb models will continue to push other assets to where the new JPY price implies they "should be".


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Nah still don't get it nor does the maths guy?




Avg Buy 21893.1 X 230 contracts X $50 HKD = $251,770,650
Avg Sell 21894.03 X 230 contracts X $50 HKD = $251,781,345

Sells 251,781,345 less Buys 251,770,650 = $10,695 HKD Gross Profit

$10,695 HKD to AUD = $1325 AUD less brokerage of approx $1100

=

$200 profit!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Avg Buy 21893.1 X 230 contracts X $50 HKD = $251,770,650
> Avg Sell 21894.03 X 230 contracts X $50 HKD = $251,781,345
> 
> Sells 251,781,345 less Buys 251,770,650 = $10,695 HKD Gross Profit
> 
> $10,695 HKD to AUD = $1325 AUD less brokerage of approx $1100
> 
> =
> 
> $200 profit!




17 HKD RT for brokerage?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> 17 HKD RT for brokerage?




hey? per side


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> hey? per side





Oops, still!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Avg Buy 21893.1 X 230 contracts X $50 HKD = $251,770,650
> Avg Sell 21894.03 X 230 contracts X $50 HKD = $251,781,345
> 
> Sells 251,781,345 less Buys 251,770,650 = $10,695 HKD Gross Profit
> 
> $10,695 HKD to AUD = $1325 AUD less brokerage of approx $1100
> 
> =
> 
> $200 profit!




Thanks
I don't need a maths guy
I need glasses.
Average---missed it.


----------



## nysefloortrader

sinner said:


> I have a lot to say on JPY, but will just say in relation to other assets:
> 
> So long as JPY remains a risk off currency, declines in JPY will work their way through to most asset classes as a decline in volatility == "BoJ put" sort of action. The big risk arb models will continue to push other assets to where the new JPY price implies they "should be".




yes, I think u are right. 

Alot of people saying the indicies have dipped and u should buy it  up here. I think that is dangerous and the markets, and asian markets are going to sell off alot more from here. Just a guess.


----------



## sinner

Just for ****s and giggles, P/E ratios for FB and LNKD.


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> http://vimeo.com/17477153





Lol ..... Just watched this video Kid/H ...... Nice to start Monday morning off with a laugh .... brilliant!


----------



## Trembling Hand

China looks to be in for ANOTHER smack down! Taiwan opens down 1.6% China futs down 2%!


----------



## CanOz

Spoos went parabolic overnight and after the cash close....nice recap here...



K200 did the same then gave it all back, suspect TH is working the same move on the HSI now....

Lots of emotions in these markets!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> suspect TH is working the same move on the HSI now....




was given the cucumber rumba on the China CPI data. I let her run for a bit then kept on shorting it bigger and bigger all the way up.... OUCH!!

Nearly back flat now........One more trade should fix it........ Should of actually hit out harder.......... though bit hard to hold when your first trade is 100 points off side.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Should of actually hit out harder.......... though bit hard to hold when your first trade is 100 points off side.



\

I broke into a sweat just reading that...


----------



## CanOz

The move on the Spoos was low volume, as was the SPI move this morning...


----------



## nysefloortrader

CanOz said:


> The move on the Spoos was low volume, as was the SPI move this morning...




yes very good eyes, 

I think that cnbc keep going on about how we are in a bull market that is a big sign not to be LONG right now. LOL. Yes they have a tendancy to BS and throw you the wrong way. 

Even though we have sold off a little, the stocks are still way to high up past instrinsic values and we are going to see more down draft come on the markets in the next few weeks.  The breadth charts do not look good, and that nice run up we had lately was on weaker volume. 

The bears are really snarling here, and can do some real damage if they want.


----------



## sinner

What news just came out?

I was busy getting shat on by the EURUSD when all of a sudden my long position finally broke good more than 10pts in a minute.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> What news just came out?
> 
> I was busy getting shat on by the EURUSD when all of a sudden my long position finally broke good more than 10pts in a minute.




US Pit open....


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> US Pit open....




Must be 'cos I can't see anything else except some comments from Bullard?

Liquidity does look to be exceptionally high right now in FX.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Must be 'cos I can't see anything else except some comments from Bullard?
> 
> Liquidity does look to be exceptionally high right now in FX.




Cables up, bonds up, gold up...DX is dropping


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Cables up, bonds up, gold up...DX is dropping




If we are going back to NY opens where the EUR actually moves I am going to be a happy man.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> If we are going back to NY opens where the EUR actually moves I am going to be a happy man.




Well its looking like an interesting night already...the ES is looking to take out the Globex high again before the open, and its not the DAX driving the bus this time.


----------



## sinner

OK I am *out* for the night!

All horrible and disgusting, everything crazy! Only saved by those last two moves in EURUSD holding on longs from 1.3045.

:freak3:


----------



## sinner

Not exactly TH turnover, but we are talking about 9.5 million in turnover for 83USD profit for the night


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Not exactly TH turnover, but we are talking about 9.5 million in turnover for 83USD profit for the night





Beer money anyway


----------



## nysefloortrader

CanOz said:


> Beer money anyway




I hear beer money goes well with tiddy bar money. hehe LOL. 

Lots of bull traps I can see in the indicies, I think the market is set for more pulling back soon, lots more but first you know the drill, rope more bulls in, and then they have most right where they need them. *rubs hands together*


----------



## chops_a_must

I hope you're trading what you see, and not what you think floor trader.

The US looks VERY bullish to me. 

All my stats and recent wins point to the buy side as the way forward, and a breakout outside of the ranges on open tonight.


----------



## sinner

JPY murder continues today...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone been following the Korean Won.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone been following the Korean Won.
> 
> View attachment 51727
> View attachment 51728




Just the usual Bank of Korea action isn't it?

They happily and often intervene in the KRWUSD and KRWEUR rates and then recycle their intervention dollars, euros and won into more liquid markets later in the day as reserves.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Just the usual Bank of Korea action isn't it?
> 
> They happily and often intervene in the KRWUSD and KRWEUR rates and then recycle their intervention dollars, euros and won into more liquid markets later in the day as reserves.




Nah report of N.Korea lifting one of their rockets to launch mode.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah report of N.Korea lifting one of their rockets to launch mode.




North Korea can lift itself out of povety by placing a few bets on the WON / Kospi then spreading a few more rumours.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> North Korea can lift itself out of povety by placing a few bets on the WON / Kospi then spreading a few more rumours.




Yeah thats what I have been thinking too. I wish I had my own country.... :samurai:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah thats what I have been thinking too. I wish I had my own country.... :samurai:




You don't need your own country. Just need your own missile launcher to issue semi-credible threats.


----------



## Trembling Hand

OMG! The HSI is trading out of hours................. 

No wonder my daily charts have been weird the last few days.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> OMG! The HSI is trading out of hours.................
> 
> No wonder my daily charts have been weird the last few days.




Well i'll be dambed....now you have an O/N low to use as support/res...!


----------



## Lone Wolf

Trembling Hand said:


> OMG! The HSI is trading out of hours.................
> 
> No wonder my daily charts have been weird the last few days.




Out of curiosity... what effect does the introduction of out of hours trading have on the trading activity during regular hours? Does it make any difference to you?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Lone Wolf said:


> Out of curiosity... what effect does the introduction of out of hours trading have on the trading activity during regular hours? Does it make any difference to you?




Not much, A few more numbers to have a look at in the morning thats probably it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh and the relief of having an open market to close a position if anything goes a·wry on the cash close. that would of saved me a few thoudy over the years.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh and the relief of having an open market to close a position if anything goes a·wry on the cash close. that would of saved me a few thoudy over the years.




Or if you forget you have a position on and go on a hot date....


----------



## Lone Wolf

Trembling Hand said:


> Not much, A few more numbers to have a look at in the morning thats probably it.




Thanks. I'm not really up to speed with who moves the market out of hours. I thought you might get less players during the regular session. But I guess the out of hours volume is really nothing compared to the regular session.

Nice that you gained some added peace of mind though.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Or if you forget you have a position on and go on a hot date....




F me I've spent some money on some lovely ladies before but I never knew how much that one was costing me! 



Lone Wolf said:


> Thanks. I'm not really up to speed with who moves the market out of hours. I thought you might get less players during the regular session. But I guess the out of hours volume is really nothing compared to the regular session.
> 
> Nice that you gained some added peace of mind though.



You may actually get more. It enables new strategies like arbs that need 24 hr markets etc.


----------



## CanOz

Who says the ETH levels don't work?


----------



## Lone Wolf

CanOz said:


> Who says the ETH levels don't work?




You could argue that it was actually testing the high of the regular session made right around 16:00. I'm not making that argument, just saying. :


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf said:


> You could argue that it was actually testing the high of the regular session made right around 16:00. I'm not making that argument, just saying. :





Oh, good point indeed...i missed that, what with my crappy TWS...:frown:


----------



## sinner

Goin to 'merica, back in a week, don't miss me too much.


----------



## nysefloortrader

notting said:


> Sell off in May, I guess being a short on the DAX!




Well we all know that saying SELL IN MAY AND WALK AWAY!

Sometimes it doesnt work, but this year It probably will. 

The weeklies are overbought, bonds are very strong, and I think people are starting to get wayyyyy too bullish again, so that could mean something.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> ...
> Meanwhile, I've set the meanest grandmother of all my geese onto that dastardly DAX.
> So DAX, don't bother crying to me in the coming months! You brought this all on yourself when you dis'd my precious Grail!!
> (Who was it that said revenge wasn't sweet?)




Ohhh, DAX, DAX wherefore art thou DAX?

3% down, 2% up, 4% down, then 3% up and 3% down again!

Whom do you think you're kidding, DAX? GrannyGoose isn't fooled for a minute!

C'mon DAX I know you can do better than that! (You're not going to let that wizened waterfowl beat you so easily, are you?)

C'mon DAX, Bring it on!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy that was a smack down on the DAX!! F me...... 2.5% in 1/2 an hour. 




EDIT German credit down grade coming.... OUCH!!


----------



## cynic

It's nice to see that I've caught your attention DAX, but really, another piddly 2-3% down - hardly worth the effort!

That barely even ruffled Grandma's feathers. (Nought more than water of a Goose's back.)

C'mon DAX! Stop trifling with me!! Show me what you've really got this time!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

german pmi, ptuh!


----------



## peterfootwork

Joules MM1 said:


> german pmi, ptuh!





Great watch when you are only on the Sim!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

peterfootwork said:


> Great watch when you are only on the Sim!!!




lulz, quit hurting yaself


----------



## kid hustlr

Fun action overnight thanks to a fake tweet.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-23/ap-reports-two-explosions-white-house-obama-injured


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI- high vol open and no one has won yet. Both sides are really going at it. She'll pop soon.


----------



## nysefloortrader

all I want for xmas is a hacker to tweet some bad new for us, or a north korea attack...LOL. 

This market right here is a BULL Trap! 

hourly overbought, and some down is due anyway. They are just keeping this up so the slam down is much harder and faster, you know....that old chestnut, that is the drill these days.


----------



## Trembling Hand

nysefloortrader said:


> This market right here is a BULL Trap!
> 
> hourly overbought, and some down is due anyway. They are just keeping this up so the slam down is much harder and faster, you know....that old chestnut, that is the drill these days.




Can we order a different narrative for our money. This is become a bit same same blah blah..... Where is the great info for our price of entry??


----------



## white_goodman

nysefloortrader said:


> all I want for xmas is a hacker to tweet some bad new for us, or a north korea attack...LOL.
> 
> This market right here is a BULL Trap!
> 
> hourly overbought, and some down is due anyway. They are just keeping this up so the slam down is much harder and faster, you know....that old chestnut, that is the drill these days.




jump on we're nearly half way there


----------



## sinner

Heh. Last night before bed I rebalanced my FX carry/momentum doublesort model out of SEKJPY and into NZDJPY. Woke up this morning to place some trades on the NYSE, to discover I'd perfectly top ticked my NZDJPY long and in drawdown equal to last months SEKJPY returns.


----------



## sinner

Trading, I've been doing it wrong;

SWISS FRANC TRADER: can u put 6m swiss libor in low pls?... 
PRIMARY SUBMITTER: Whats it worth 
SWSISS FRANC TRADER: ive got some sushi rolls from yesterday?... 
PRIMARY SUBMITTER: ok low 6m, just for u 
SWISS FRANC TRADER: wooooooohooooooo. . . thatd be awesome


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> It's nice to see that I've caught your attention DAX, but really, another piddly 2-3% down - hardly worth the effort!
> 
> That barely even ruffled Grandma's feathers. (Nought more than water of a Goose's back.)
> 
> C'mon DAX! Stop trifling with me!! Show me what you've really got this time!!!




So who's a clever little bourse then!

So DAX! Now that you've shown that you've got what it takes to put Grandma under water, have you also got what it's going to take to keep her there?
Well? Have you?

I should warn you that she's a pretty tough ol' bird, dat dere, Granny Goose!


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> I should warn you that she's a pretty tough ol' bird, dat dere, Granny Goose!




Ha never mind. Its a job of keeping spirits above water (without being deluded i should add). I had a month of philanthropic endeavours.......... enriching my bloody clearer...... *thats all.*.... :frown:


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha never mind. Its a job of keeping spirits above water (without being deluded i should add). I had a month of philanthropic endeavours.......... enriching my bloody clearer...... *thats all.*.... :frown:




Thanks for offering your condolences T/H and thank you so very much for sharing. I've often heard it said that misery loves company. That is why I am now recommending the DAX to all market newcomers! (Who was it that said I was selfish!)

As an accomplished OTC CFD "wannabe" trader, fully equipped with absurd trading strategies and miniscule funding, I expect nothing less than for the major bourses to tremble at the mere thought of my approach!

Despite that minor technicality of OTC instruments being traded "off exchange", one could hardly describe these sentiments as delusional!

Now I must take a closer look at the FTSE! This year, for some elusive reason, my geese have been getting thoroughly constipated whilst grazing on it, and we all know how difficult it can be to take flight when full of $#!7.

On a happier note, FTSE's behaviour has been extremely favourable to AbiGrail who is continuing to flourish.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL talk about walking off a cliff!


----------



## sinner

Carry trade back in business after a good end to last week.



I've been sick since I got back from the US, so out of action on the discretionary stuff for the last couple of weeks. Hope to get back in the saddle at some point this week.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, Crude's gone for a nice gap n run already too...


----------



## boofis

Lovely start to the morning.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Yeah, Crude's gone for a nice gap n run already too...




Short term look at CL and some AUD carry


----------



## kid hustlr

Huge USD rally last night, something feels fishy


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> something feels fishy




Like what?


----------



## avion

Maybe Soros is not done yet shorting the Aussie dollar...


----------



## peterfootwork

avion said:


> Maybe Soros is not done yet shorting the Aussie dollar...




He can't effect changes like that . 
He just sees the writing on the wall, and his 50 or so years experience in the market..........
 Gotta love those sweep orders today!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## sinner

Nearly perfect!

BoJ is paying the bill for carry traders at an amazing rate over the last couple of weeks!! Selling vol on all declines.

EDIT: Against the AUD too


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Like what?




No idea, not my job to predict, I need to react.

A lot of excitement in the markets I watch today fwiw!


----------



## avion

kid hustlr said:


> A lot of excitement in the markets I watch today fwiw!




And i am bored with HSI, narrow range... what are you trading?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> And i am bored with HSI, narrow range... what are you trading?






Seriously?


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> And i am bored with HSI, narrow range... what are you trading?




lol...what month are you trading?


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Seriously?




Yep, not yet at your level TH... 100 point range so far...


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Yep, not yet at your level TH... 100 point range so far...




Mate its averaged 200 points per day for the last 10 days. So in the first hour its already done half the days range. in the next 45 min its done another 100 points back the other way. 

What type of set ups are you trading? There is not much more you can ask for. Unless you are looking for the 1 in 20 days where you get a runner in 1 direction. But, IMO, you'll go broke looking for them.


----------



## avion

As always, your words are full of trading wisdom... 

I agree, i am still trading and today was a good day but because we had such tight intraday ranges lately i am missing some of the old action... So 1 in 20 you reckon, damn we still have to wait then... 

I will probably eat my words come Monday


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

How does one trade volatility? Is it even possible? Say I think the market will increase in volatility tonight, is there a volatility index I can get long on so to speak?


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How does one trade volatility? Is it even possible? Say I think the market will increase in volatility tonight, is there a volatility index I can get long on so to speak?




The VIX? CBOE Volatility Index....Currently 15.3

Sam, what going on?....You think Ben jawboning tonight might cause some volatility?

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> The VIX? CBOE Volatility Index....Currently 15.3
> 
> Sam, what going on?....You think Ben jawboning tonight might cause some volatility?
> 
> CanOz




Yeah but is that actually tradeable or just viewable? 

Ben jawboning always does doesn't it?  Nah I'm curious as well, heard of the VIX etc. but thought it was just a viewable thing.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah but is that actually tradeable or just viewable?
> 
> Ben jawboning always does doesn't it?  Nah I'm curious as well, heard of the VIX etc. but thought it was just a viewable thing.




Nah, its there to trade, here....


----------



## sinner

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How does one trade volatility? Is it even possible? Say I think the market will increase in volatility tonight, is there a volatility index I can get long on so to speak?




You can buy an ATM straddle and run a delta hedging regime for a close synthetic.


----------



## sinner

P.S Trading VIX futures is not the same thing as trading VIX.

http://www.theoptionsguide.com/vix-future.aspx


> Depending on how the market perceive volatility, the price of a VIX futures contract can be lower, equal or higher than the VIX spot price. Often, due to the mean-reverting nature of the VIX, when the VIX is low, VIX futures trade at a premium and when the VIX is high, VIX futures trade at a discount.




Spot VIX is implied vol on near dated options, i.e. the market forecast for realised volatility ~30d in the future. VIX futures are actually the market forecast for VIX, so the forecast for the forecast for realised volatility. Calls on VIX futures are again another step removed.

If you're looking for a cash underlying to trade off spot VIX signals, then I suggest SPY.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

sinner said:


> You can buy an ATM straddle and run a delta hedging regime for a close synthetic.




....what?


----------



## CanOz

JGB trading has just been halted as the exchanges circuit breakers kicked in...Yields are surging higher...


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> ....what?




+1   :alcohol:


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> ....what?




Me too......what?

I admire these options guys...


----------



## sinner

ThingyMajiggy said:


> ....what?




Something like this

http://www.optionetics.com/marketdata/article.aspx?aid=24567


----------



## sinner

Maybe too complicated

http://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concepts/strategies/long_straddle.html



> A long straddle is a combination of buying a call and buying a put, both with the same strike price and expiration. Together, they produce a position that should profit if the stock makes a big move either up or down. Typically, investors buy the straddle because they predict a big price move and/or a great deal of volatility in the foreseeable future.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Maybe too complicated
> 
> http://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concepts/strategies/long_straddle.html




Ah, is that what Taleb was doing all the time? Looking to profit from extreme moves...that way he had a predetermined amount of risk and a potentially large reward...?


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Ah, is that what Taleb was doing all the time? Looking to profit from extreme moves...that way he had a predetermined amount of risk and a potentially large reward...?




The Empirca and Universa underlying model is essentially long volatility, but its significantly more complicated than simply purchasing long straddles. My impression was that they generally buy OTM puts rather than both legs of the straddle.

Check out papers from Spitznagel, who was Empiricas head trader for Taleb, to see what triggers them to start longing volatility like this one

www.universa.net/UniversaSpitznagel_research_20110613.pdf

Hint: they are akin to value investors, starting to buy vols as the market becomes extremely expensive on valuation basis.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

So what would you buy this straddle on? SPY?


----------



## sinner

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So what would you buy this straddle on? SPY?




Any index instrument? SPY/ES, QQQ/NQ, etc.

Depends on the size. Underneath a certain size it is probably most convenient to just buy VXX.

Long volatility isn't an easy game, the market is almost always in contango. You need to be comfortable with trend following batting averages.

I very rarely do long vol against the overall market, my model tracks a small basket (<10 assets) of sector ETFs and indices.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

sinner said:


> Any index instrument? SPY/ES, QQQ/NQ, etc.
> 
> Depends on the size. Underneath a certain size it is probably most convenient to just buy VXX.
> 
> Long volatility isn't an easy game, the market is almost always in contango. You need to be comfortable with trend following batting averages.
> 
> I very rarely do long vol against the overall market, my model tracks a small basket (<10 assets) of sector ETFs and indices.




Ok thanks. 

So you do long vol against a handful of stocks instead? What's the benefit? More chance to be volatile?


----------



## sinner

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ok thanks.
> 
> So you do long vol against a handful of stocks instead? What's the benefit? More chance to be volatile?




No, like I said, I trade on a basket of sectors.

Gold Miners
Energy
Financials
Tech

etc


----------



## chops_a_must

sinner said:


> The Empirca and Universa underlying model is essentially long volatility, but its significantly more complicated than simply purchasing long straddles. My impression was that they generally buy OTM puts rather than both legs of the straddle.




Yeah, that was my impression.

My basic understanding of going long straddles, is that it is best in flat conditions, when expecting a break either way.

Thanks for the article.


----------



## sinner

> My basic understanding of going long straddles, is that it is best in flat conditions, when expecting a break either way.




As always with options, it completely depends on a myriad of factors. Holding till expiration or not? Delta hedging or not? etc...

Since volatility is priced on a demand basis, being correct in your forecast of volatility is generally what drives returns, rather than any market inefficiencies. Even if a large break doesn't happen you can still profit handsomely from the IV increase on the options you hold. Conversely a crunch in IV and/or contango in volatility can decimate the value of your position even if a break occurs. 

Looking through my notes, Bill Luby from vixandmore seems to consider (nondirectional) volatility a buy only when the following two conditions are met:
Volatility forecast: Low -> High
Directional forecast: Ranging

If anyone was curious, my model is currently taking small profits rather than looking for new entries, across all sectors.


----------



## nysefloortrader

LOVE the smell of a gap down Sunday, can I get an amen. 

I also love the bantering going on about the fed and ending quantitative easing, havent we heard that same ****E for the last few years. LOL. 

more rabbits out of hats coming, get ready.


----------



## cynic

I've just discovered a new four letter cuss word beginning with the letter "F". 

FTSE this FTSEing rally and FTSE the FTSEing bourse that it FTSEing sailed in on! This rally has totally FTSEed up my year!

Anyone whom disagrees with my post is perfectly welcome to go FTSE themselves!


----------



## sinner

BoJ seems to be directly targeting USDJPY for intervention and ignoring other currencies (which surprises me as I thought they would target EURJPY). I have observed NZDJPY has been sold consistently from ~84.8 for the last while, which is incidentally where I managed to enter for this "monthly period" in one of my portfolios (FX carry/momentum). My worry is that what comes next with the JPY is largely unknown, and any profits which I might get paid for selling the JPY are going to be denominated in such. As the account is only lightly leveraged on most trades, I have already taken a significant hit on profits from JPY devaluation since the intervention began.

I already knocked the CHF out of my FX universe in 2011, am I going to have to take the JPY out as well on fears of serious market structure issues? 

If there is a marketwide risk off move where momentum and carry are taken out behind the shed to be shot, will JPY be a risk off or risk on currency at this point? 

I do not like this and am settling all my FX positions for the short term (about 15% of total equity) until I can decide what's what. This will be only the second time since I've overriden the system.


----------



## boofis

Was that 336 print on the seng very early roll over or legit ... :O ?!?!


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Was that 336 print on the seng very early roll over or legit ... :O ?!?!




If you didn't see it in the depth it was a roll over or IB data error. I'd put my money on IB data error...


----------



## boofis

Cheers, it was in the depth but I'll put it down to data error as it seemed erroneous compared to the rest of todays volume.


----------



## nysefloortrader

cynic said:


> I've just discovered a new four letter cuss word beginning with the letter "F".
> 
> FTSE this FTSEing rally and FTSE the FTSEing bourse that it FTSEing sailed in on! This rally has totally FTSEed up my year!
> 
> Anyone whom disagrees with my post is perfectly welcome to go FTSE themselves!




hehe hilarious.


----------



## nysefloortrader

anyone notice the triangle / pennant pattern on the hourly that broke to the upside on ES. 

Interesting. Upside target is 1640 - 1650. Guess we shall see.


----------



## white_goodman

nysefloortrader said:


> Interesting.




it really isnt


----------



## CanOz

nysefloortrader said:


> anyone notice the triangle / pennant pattern on the hourly that broke to the upside on ES.
> 
> Interesting. Upside target is 1640 - 1650. Guess we shall see.
> 
> 
> View attachment 52180




Bugger, i thought it was an expanding triangle and i shorted it....,,,worked for a while....


----------



## boofis

No K200 or STW coming through, anyone else getting data? :dunno:


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> No K200 or STW coming through, anyone else getting data? :dunno:




The Birthday of the Buddha

No honkers or Korea, not sure about Taiwan but that wouldn't be open yet anyway.


----------



## boofis

Damn holidays, now what to do with my day


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Damn holidays, now what to do with my day


----------



## Gringotts Bank

boofis said:


> Damn holidays, now what to do with my day




Bueller?....Bueller?.....Bueller?


----------



## boofis

Gringotts Bank said:


> Bueller?....Bueller?.....Bueller?




:


----------



## peterfootwork

Black rain in HK ?????


----------



## Trembling Hand

peterfootwork said:


> Black rain in HK ?????




Yep..... Not as good as purle rain..


----------



## Trembling Hand

Going by this,
http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/market/typhoons/TradingArrangement.htm

And the latest from here,
http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm

There will be no morning session. Will be confirmed in 50 minutes.


----------



## peterfootwork

Trembling Hand said:


> Going by this,
> http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/market/typhoons/TradingArrangement.htm
> 
> And the latest from here,
> http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm
> 
> There will be no morning session. Will be confirmed in 50 minutes.





Cool, cheers for the info. And the link!!!!

_AHHHHHHHHHH My Ribs_


----------



## Trembling Hand

Man thats some funky action on the Seng this arvo. Looks like some Muppet has been told to fit 1 days worth of selling into half a day!


----------



## havaiana

Some big moves in equities overnight, interesting theory about the reason behind some of the selling:

"There is some chatter about a large sell program that was triggered today when the dividend yield on the S&P 500 matched the yield of the 10-year Treasury note."


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/...-be-the-cause-of-the-stock-market-turnaround/


----------



## peterfootwork

havaiana said:


> Some big moves in equities overnight, interesting theory about the reason behind some of the selling:
> 
> "There is some chatter about a large sell program that was triggered today when the dividend yield on the S&P 500 matched the yield of the 10-year Treasury note."
> 
> 
> http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/...-be-the-cause-of-the-stock-market-turnaround/




I just recon the tap on Methadone supply (QE) is slowly being closed.


----------



## white_goodman

peterfootwork said:


> I just recon the tap on Methadone supply (QE) is slowly being closed.




its not, not until they meet the 'evans rule'... we are in a state of QE till they meet unemployment and inflation thresholds


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee they really are smashing it after that China PMI. Bloody honkers exchange is just rubbish. They REALLY need to upgrade their String and Tin cans. SLOW....


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee they really are smashing it after that China PMI. Bloody honkers exchange is just rubbish. They REALLY need to upgrade their String and Tin cans. SLOW....




How slows the latency today? 


Apparently string and tin can is only tier 1
*WET *string and tin can be used for internet.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> How slows the latency today?
> 
> 
> Apparently string and tin can is only tier 1
> *WET *string and tin can be used for internet.




I thought it was just me...i had to shut it down, IB with the HSI was just unusable.

Onto homework and stats i guess....

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> How slows the latency today?
> 
> 
> Apparently string and tin can is only tier 1
> *WET *string and tin can be used for internet.




It got smashed 10 min after the initial PMI drop with about 2500 contracts in a min. I was pretty short but it was going so fast and my orders to add where SO slow into the market I got spooked and in stead of adding to full size + some I covered..... 

To then have the pleasure to watch it drop another 200 points........

Somewhere in a parallel universe far far away there is a copy of me doing just the right things at the right time. He looks like this,





I look like this,


----------



## CanOz

I think i'll give lunch a miss today


----------



## boofis

-20 tick stop = - 60 tick fill


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> I think i'll give lunch a miss today




Lol!

Geez I hope the crapper in the background of TH's picture has been reinforced


----------



## Trembling Hand

Abenomics looks to have ran into a brick wall at 16000!




Nasty!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nikkei down 6 %


----------



## kid hustlr

lololol seriously wtf @ today.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nikkei down 6 %




I wonder where the limits switches are? What level, any idea? No wonder Hav got burned on the Yen!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I wonder where the limits switches are? What level, any idea? No wonder Hav got burned on the Yen!




Think its 10%. shouldn't get there before close...... ?


----------



## CanOz

> (JP) NIKKEI Futures halted - Source TradeTheNews.com




That was at 1333....


----------



## Trembling Hand

$15 off record day for the year................. Watch me root this up.... :microwave


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> $15 off record day for the year................. Watch me root this up.... :microwave





Go go go go !!!!corn:

NK down over 7%...7.3


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> I wonder where the limits switches are? What level, any idea? No wonder Hav got burned on the Yen!




If i was smart it should have been the easiest day to make money of the year. Really need to work on my trend trading.  F me, it must have turned at the 50% retracement level about 40 times on the way down, what was i thinking...

Edit: Nikkei biggest 1 day percentage fall in 2 years (easiest day to make money in 2 years?)
Edit 2: i think usd/yen about to reach 0


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> If i was smart it should have been the easiest day to make money of the year. Really need to work on my trend trading.  F me, it must have turned at the 50% retracement level about 40 times on the way down, what was i thinking...
> 
> Edit: Nikkei biggest 1 day percentage fall in 2 years (easiest day to make money in 2 years?)
> Edit 2: i think yen about to reach 0




Fark, if i had a dollar for everytime i thought that...lol

Yeah, sometimes you get so wrapped up in the now you forget to think "which way is the market going, and how good a job is it doing trying to go there?"


----------



## skyQuake

Lets see where the NKY reopens.

Cash closed so that should be a quick bounce imo


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sheeish. The order books getting very thinnnnnnn.    :holysheep:


----------



## CanOz

Crude is getting hammered, good volume and volatility for this time of day....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> $15 off record day for the year................. Watch me root this up.... :microwave




Smashed it.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Smashed it.
> 
> View attachment 52356




Ill have what your having.


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> Smashed it.




Your round


----------



## baby_swallow

Trembling Hand said:


> Abenomics looks to have ran into a brick wall at 16000!
> 
> View attachment 52350
> 
> 
> Nasty!




I have some shorts last night but I covered at open early this morning...


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Smashed it.
> 
> View attachment 52356





Fark me.................:bowdown:

Well done....love your work:cowboy:

Yeah, your shout!:drink:


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Ill have what your having.




Today a bloody headache developing into a tumour it feels like!



prawn_86 said:


> Your round





I've already started Prawn. See you in the park.


----------



## sammy84

Trading had been feeling far too easy recently


----------



## tech/a

sammy84 said:


> Trading had been feeling far too easy recently




Currently long term Short Indexes
DAX / FTSE
3 rd time lucky!

Off to a Fund Raiser
Would rather be home!


----------



## skyQuake

Beautiful moves on the Nikkei again


----------



## havaiana

skyQuake said:


> Beautiful moves on the Nikkei again




CME puts Nikkei margin up to $3,300 after today's (friday) session


----------



## Trembling Hand

I'm having something of a big day hang-over. 




Cannot hang to anything today. High win but going nowhere!


----------



## havaiana

I'm having a big bad day hangover. Today the yen has been a little bit nicer to me today, had nearly made up yesterdays losses. Decided I was pretty much the best trader in the world and it was time to step things up a notch (or 5), then copped an absolute schooling on AUD.


----------



## kid hustlr

Nikkei.

It's happening again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Did somebody shout マージンコール?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm having something of a big day hang-over.
> 
> View attachment 52378
> 
> 
> Cannot hang to anything today. High win but going nowhere!




Well done TH nice shooting!


----------



## havaiana

I'm exhausted. Wonder why they have been waiting for so late in asia the past couple of days to start getting busy? Kuroda had well and truly finished his speech before it started to hit the fan

Edit: he spoke in parliament after, maybe that was it


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheeish. The order books getting very thinnnnnnn.    :holysheep:




orderbooks thin again, yen beginning to look like crude


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> orderbooks thin again, yen beginning to look like crude




Yeah.... Come over and have a look at the Seng. The order book looks like the SPI used to back in 2004 at 3 am..... nothing in it. 

EDIT;Anyone watch the HSI? after my post?


----------



## Trembling Hand

BIG CALL FOR THE MONTH (if its right I'll make it for thr year)

Global Buy Bot.... Turned on. 

We are going Kermit all over.


----------



## kid hustlr

Kermit?

edit, just got it.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> BIG CALL FOR THE MONTH (if its right I'll make it for thr year)
> 
> Global Buy Bot.... Turned on.
> 
> We are going Kermit all over.





Go Green Go!:bowser:

corn:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> BIG CALL FOR THE MONTH (if its right I'll make it for thr year)
> 
> Global Buy Bot.... Turned on.
> 
> We are going Kermit all over.




i'm also buying, EURUSD in at 1.29263 looking for a range top push/test 1.29468TP


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm having something of a big day hang-over.




Ha! hair of the dog worked.... 





I'm lovin May. Now off to work on a real hang-over. :alcohol:


----------



## boofis

Looks like I missed some fairly smooth long action this arvo! Nice hangover recovery


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I_ saw following link about Asian markets. Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which plummeted more than 7 percent Thursday, bounced back a sizeable 2.8 percent on Friday. Benchmarks in Indonesia, Taiwan and mainland China also rose. Benchmarks in the Philippines and New Zealand fell. Among frontier and emerging markets Philippines were one of the top performing markets so far.

http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2013/...as-benchmark-bond-yield-spikes/#axzz2UGaED6R3

Asia stock markets edge up after big sell-off

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites_


----------



## >Apocalypto<

long worked well on eurusd jumped on short but didn't get the carry through i hoped for... still in praying for a gap down monday morning... fair amount of late us session buyers came in still looks bullish on 1 hour to me atm.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I found some information about global stock markets from the following links today.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...rise-to-seven-week-high-on-economic-outlook\\

Vietnamese Stocks Rise to Seven-Week High on Economic Outlook

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/27/markets-southeastasia-stocks-idUKL3N0E81LD20130527

SE Asia Stocks-Weak globals knock region off highs; Philippine lags
http://uk.reuters.com/news/video

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Please see following link about European markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-28/european-stock-futures-advance-gdf-raiffeisen-may-move.html

European Stocks Advance for a Second Day; Basilea Climbs

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

According to following link 

The MSCI Frontier Market index has gained 13.3 per cent in the first five months of the year.

Frontier markets such as United Arab Emirates, Bulgaria, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam – made up the seven top-performing markets this year.

The nine worst-performing markets are: Peru, Czech Republic, Colombia, South Africa, Egypt, Russia, Poland, Chile and Morocco – are from the emerging world.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3e183a4-cc9e-11e2-bb22-00144feab7de.html#axzz2VLACtadF

Frontier markets on track for record year
.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Currently long term Short Indexes
> DAX / FTSE
> 3 rd time lucky!
> 
> Off to a Fund Raiser
> Would rather be home!




Tech is this still in play or did you get stopped out? I don't have the FTSE in front of me but I'm assuming its traded along a SIMILAR path to the Dax/S&P. 

That wide range, big reversal bar from the 22nd may is looking like a pretty good sell signal now.


----------



## CanOz

Looks like the NK has put in a bottom for now....wonder of the rest of Asia will follow?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Looks like the NK has put in a bottom for now....wonder of the rest of Asia will follow?




Big call considering how its daily ATR is about 4 % the last 2 weeks!


----------



## white_goodman

CanOz said:


> Looks like the NK has put in a bottom for now....wonder of the rest of Asia will follow?




BOJ needs to restep on the gas and realise QE isnt meant to lower the long end of the curve, rather the opposite


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Big call considering how its daily ATR is about 4 % the last 2 weeks!




Yup, spoke too soon, closed below 13000 too....


----------



## sinner

Finally back in the discretionary chair today after a long hiatus since I went to the US. With liquidity very low this morning, made out like a bandit on the AUDUSD. Looks like there is plenty of EU/UK news out tonight so I will be switching to EURUSD in a couple of hours.


----------



## CanOz

Far out...the NK is a one way elevator up at the moment...don't get in the way!


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Finally back in the discretionary chair today after a long hiatus since I went to the US. With liquidity very low this morning, made out like a bandit on the AUDUSD. Looks like there is plenty of EU/UK news out tonight so I will be switching to EURUSD in a couple of hours.




She is a pretty wild ride today on all instruments. Lots of biz being done. Not sure about FX land but the index futs has given me quite the headache


----------



## MARKETWINNER

We cannot expect rapid rise in employment in Europe or USA within the short period. We will see gradual improvements there. Germany will lead in Europe. German industrial production  has surged in April.USA also will have gradual recovery. Definitely Australian job market is going to become weak due to poor performance in the commodity market in the short run. Lower interest rate and lower commodity prices will improve profits margin of many listed companies in global markets in this quarter. We can expect much improved earnings from many companies.

Despite gloomy forecasts always there will be some economic activities in addition to demand for products and services from population growth globally. For example many countries want to drink New Zealand milk (Anchor) and Asian economy will have to import some commodities from Australia in the coming decade. There are economic activities in less known market in Asia and Africa as well. They also like to use APPLE computer now. Their education level is improving and they also want to surf internet just like emerging and developed world. In addition they want to eat more meat and drink more milk, want to use mobile etc. NEST is expanding even in frontier world. Now Star buck is going to explore emerging world such as India and China with their tea and coffee plan. Unilever also has some plan. They are trying to identify opportunities in emerging and frontier world.

Next week is crucial for the global markets. Current down turn in market will give some opportunities globally. Even Japanese market can go up.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_When other market tumbles Vietnam frontier market had the biggest increase in Asia, at a one-week high of 520.9. Just like Philippine market there can be volatility and pull back even in Vietnam market during next one year. 

We may see few bull markets in Asia, East Europe and Africa just like Vietnam in the coming months and years. We can see foreign inflows in some Asian frontier markets now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/vietnam-eyes-foreign-investors-to-expand-stock-market.html

Vietnam Eyes Foreign Investors to Expand Stock Market

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...fund-cutting-local-bonds-to-buy-equities.html

Japan’s Pension Fund Cutting Local Bonds to Buy Equities

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100798036

Stocks Soar; Dow Gains 200 Points on Jobs Data

http://www.timesonline.com/news/wor...cle_a6770bff-469b-53ab-bb0e-28cb1414a7a4.html

Global markets rise after US jobs report 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites._


----------



## CanOz

Here's a strange one for y'all........Eurex products have 20 on the depth now...lol


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Why's that strange?


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Why's that strange?




Well most retail traders don't have the ultra book access. We're not sure we do now actually...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sheesh Ugly day in Asia today....




Lots of support breaking down today.


----------



## CanOz

The NK and the JPY just re-tested a break of the recent trends, pretty decent rejection on the NK too...

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheesh Ugly day in Asia today....
> 
> Lots of support breaking down today.




Cleaned up on the AUDUSD so far, straightforward action from the Sydney open all the way up until lunch when I stopped. Even had a couple of good longs in there.


----------



## CanOz

I may have posted this before, but anyone that trades the late arvo or evening could benefit from this free Eurex briefing...just so to their site and sign up. 

Good for DAX/FTSE/FESX/6E traders...


----------



## sinner

Good times:

* Switching from AUDUSD to EURUSD for the night
* See a great setup
* Limit sell 8 contracts of EURUSD
* Limit filled
* Ah **** I just sold 8 contracts of AUDUSD
* Scramble to cover position
* AUDUSD and EURUSD both drop 10+ ticks


----------



## peter2

Noticed that the AUD dropped 40p. Bugga.


----------



## Trembling Hand

peter2 said:


> Noticed that the AUD dropped 40p. Bugga.




AUDJPY down 2%!!


----------



## skc

It really feels like some sort of unknown monster has been created since mid May and causing all sorts of chaotic volatility in international markets. One couldn't help but think that the US is at least partly responsible for the monster's creation, yet it's market is actually the most stable and least volatile thus far.

Or may be the monster comes from 6 months of trible-dose steroid injections to the Japanese economy... those injections now have a life of its own and one just doesn't know where it's going to pop up and cause panic - be it buying or selling.

AUD was the last to join the currency war and it's winning the battle handsomely and almost uncontested...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> It really feels like some sort of unknown monster has been created since mid May and causing all sorts of chaotic volatility in international markets.




Yeah good ain't it? :jump::blover:



skc said:


> AUD was the last to join the currency war and it's winning the battle handsomely and almost uncontested...




V.Good point.


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> AUD was the last to join the currency war and it's winning the battle handsomely and almost uncontested...




Dunno about being last, various FX newsires which notify of RBA actions in the market, my notes indicate they've been selling highs since we broke back above 0.8 in 2009! I certainly have a lot of notes for the RBA selling around 1.06 as well. I know they have also been taking a lot of the action for AUD (bonds) off market.


----------



## boofis

Certainly alot of red flashing about the asian markets today, ouch SGXNK!


----------



## sinner

**** I was up until 2AM last night trading the EURUSD, good bread to be had last night.


----------



## sinner

It seems that I have become unstoppable mwuahahahaha

:robot2:


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> It seems that I have become unstoppable mwuahahahaha
> 
> :robot2:




Show us!


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> Show us!




Trailing 10 trades...


----------



## skyQuake

sinner said:


> Trailing 10 trades...
> 
> View attachment 52784




Make hay while the sun shines! Great moves in almost everything (except stocks)


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Trailing 10 trades...




 Those orange bars look nice and tall!



skyQuake said:


> Make hay while the sun shines! Great moves in almost everything (except stocks)




Stocks have made a pretty decent intraday comeback. Got a tick or two out of the yield stocks...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy.... Me mid morning,





Me Mid arvo,




Me at close,




Huge trading day and I end up $120...:bad:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Huge trading day and I end up $120...:bad:




Lol. Got my highest turnover day ever today and got something like 13 bps.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Lol. Got my highest turnover day ever today and got something like 13 bps.




Better than any amount in the red.

Wax on, wax off........


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Better than any amount in the red.
> 
> Wax on, wax off........




Killing it today


----------



## Gringotts Bank

skc said:


> Killing it today




That doesn't surprise me at all.  Your vibration has been very positive the last few days.  It has to attract money.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> That doesn't surprise me at all.  Your vibration has been very positive the last few days.  It has to attract money.





And how would you describe my profitably today in spite of my general grumpiness?


----------



## skc

Gringotts Bank said:


> That doesn't surprise me at all.  Your vibration has been very positive the last few days.  It has to attract money.




Lol. With my pairs trading I normally do very well when the market turns (like today). I am not sure my good vibes can influence the market of the entire world.

Perhaps the good vibes are the result of good trading, rather than the other way round...


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> And how would you describe my profitably today in spite of my general grumpiness?




You haven't said anything much yet but you don't seem grumpy to me.  Maybe confidence is a better word than positivity.  I'd guess you're up a few K so far.  Maybe $2500.


----------



## skc

Gringotts Bank said:


> You haven't said anything much yet but you don't seem grumpy to me.  Maybe confidence is a better word than positivity.  I'd guess you're up a few K so far.  Maybe $2500.




Add a few more zeros...


----------



## mr. jeff

skc said:


> Add a few more zeros...





I am humbled to be in your presence. 

$2.5 M in one day of trading is not too shabby.

I am looking for a breakdown of the longs though so am probably trying to get back some of the $2.5M shortly.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

mr. jeff said:


> I am humbled to be in your presence.
> 
> $2.5 M in one day of trading is not too shabby.
> 
> I am looking for a breakdown of the longs though so am probably trying to get back some of the $2.5M shortly.




TH trades OPM in prop, so it could have a few more zeroes.  I was thinking more of a personal account.


----------



## skc

mr. jeff said:


> I am humbled to be in your presence.
> 
> $2.5 M in one day of trading is not too shabby.
> 
> I am looking for a breakdown of the longs though so am probably trying to get back some of the $2.5M shortly.




Lol. It was just a joke. It'd probably be like $2500.000. I like to show 3 decimal places for my P&L.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> You haven't said anything much yet but you don't seem grumpy to me.  Maybe confidence is a better word than positivity.  I'd guess you're up a few K so far.  Maybe $2500.




GB I hope you are better at speculating stocks rather than my going ons. Ya pretty much have been wrong since your first ever post. 

:


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> GB I hope you are better at speculating stocks rather than my going ons. Ya pretty much have been wrong since your first ever post.
> 
> :




ok now you're grumpy!  (+$300??)


----------



## mr. jeff

Still waiting for the shorts to fall down. 
As far as this rally goes, I am seeing the potential for a mid size pull back on wall street over the next few days - I don't think their sell down has moved down far enough yet, especially if you compare with the Aus market. I expect something like 14,800 to be revisited.

It seems that the Aus market has moved down to a support level, but looking at the chart, it appears that the next level down could easily see 4560 if the level at 4690 is broken.
thoughts?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just your typical Monday morning open on the Seng. 230 points up in the first 15 min 150 points back in the next 5!


:22_yikes:
:bbat:
:freak3:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hahaha and up another 200 points! LOL


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> Hahaha and up another 200 points! LOL




what a ride lol!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...etreat-after-imf-sinks-u-s-as-yen-climbs.html

Global Stocks Rise While Yen Slides on FOMC; Corn Drops


----------



## sinner

Extremely low liquidity tonight on the EURUSD, even for a Monday. 

Single trade for the day was a long on the EURUSD, exited at 1:1 R on expectations of small moves, price managed to jump another R after a retrace though. I'm not comlaining, considering the crappy liquidity.

Starting to look pretty distributiony on the hourly chart there. Time for a relief rally in the USDX?


----------



## sinner

Aussie dollar desperately searching for a bid in 0 liquidity.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Aussie dollar desperately searching for a bid in 0 liquidity.




Gee ya got that right. The USD is getting smacked around against everything cept the AUD & NZD.

Poor little skippy,


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee ya got that right. The USD is getting smacked around against everything cept the AUD & NZD.
> 
> Poor little skippy,




From what I can see it is real money doing the selling and specs trying to get back into their carry trades. So probably it'll go until it doesn't anymore. Obviously any USD strength in the face of this kind of AUD weakness is going to do some serious damage.

I've been trading EURUSD tonight and seeing the same signs as I saw in the AUD market today, definitely looks like there just aren't any bids for EUR around.

The week so far...


----------



## sinner

Deceptacons out in full force tonight, taken a loss on trying to outsmart them...


----------



## mr. jeff

sinner said:


> Deceptacons out in full force tonight, taken a loss on trying to outsmart them...




Sitting on a short.
It may hurt.
Can't outsmart the market.


----------



## skyQuake

mr. jeff said:


> Sitting on a short.
> It may hurt.
> Can't outsmart the market.




Hope it was AUD shorts!


----------



## kid hustlr

skyQuake said:


> Hope it was AUD shorts!




Didn't they come after it. I was looking for some kind of a bounce off the low and it just never came.

Haven't had a good look through the minutes/speech yet, too busy trying to trade the vol!


----------



## peterfootwork

Do ya recon everyone is just waiting for China PMI???


----------



## Trembling Hand

peterfootwork said:


> Do ya recon everyone is just waiting for China PMI???




To do what?


----------



## peterfootwork

Trembling Hand said:


> To do what?




To wake me up today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

peterfootwork said:


> To wake me up today.




You're not looking at the June SPI are you?


----------



## peterfootwork

Trembling Hand said:


> You're not looking at the June SPI are you?




I have graduated from being a noob, from the last contract roll!!

It just seems (to me) to want have a small range until it has permission to do otherwise. 

Cheers


----------



## boofis

So much red through the entire watchlist LOL.


----------



## skc

Something might go haywire soon?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-19/china-interbank-market-freezes-overnight-repo-explodes-25



> It seems liquidity (or counterparty mistrust) is beginning to reach extreme levels in China as the nation's banking system is now quoting overnight repo transactions at 25%. The explosion in funding costs echoes the collapse in trust (and surge in TED spread) among US banks in the run-up to the Lehman bankruptcy.


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> Something might go haywire soon?
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-19/china-interbank-market-freezes-overnight-repo-explodes-25




Yerp! and if you're a long time ZH reader, you will notice that the last time Chinese interbank yields were spiking like this was 2010, right when the Shanghai Comp was running ~3100.


----------



## CanOz

Looks like FXI has taken a beaten lately too...too late to get short...need a PB.


----------



## kid hustlr

asdfs;dofkjs;dlfkjsd;flkj

My god I got carted today. Great day for trading too, theres just too many big boys + better players than me!


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Something might go haywire soon?
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-19/china-interbank-market-freezes-overnight-repo-explodes-25






> Thursday, 20 June 2013 3:51:36 PM  (CN) PBoC meets banks and informs them not expect liquidity help - financial press- PBoC will NOT blink first in any serious confrontation - Certain banks need to do a self-criticism, would like to see them cut loans to sectors with overcapacity, cut leverage, and curb bill financing **Reminder: On Jun 20th PBoC official said that banks were being starved of liquidity in order to make them more responsible about their lending **Note: China overnight repo rate continued to rise, currently near 25% (highest in more than ten years); O/N rate fixes at 12.85% (record high) - Source TradeTheNews.com




Figured TTN would have the unbiased story...Zero is a little bearish...all the time lol...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_If we analyze emerging markets it's been fairly violent and extreme during last couple of days. Emerging market currencies, stocks and bonds suffered a fierce sell-off on Tuesday.

Both The Brazilian real and South African rand touched four-year lows against the US dollar on Tuesday. The Indian rupee fell to a record low. Even countries like the Philippines and Mexico have been hit by heavy selling. Some central banks have begun to intervene to control the currency slides. If I am correct The FTSE Emerging Markets index fell 1.7 per cent on Tuesday. 

We have to accept USD dollar was underperforming against some currencies both hard and soft currencies such as NZD, AUD, and Indian rupee due to over speculations. As I said before it has become bull currency now. In other words the dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle. USD is number one reserve currency in the world. 

As I said every asset has cycles. We have to identify this cycles before others. Both NZD and AUD have appreciated more than 50% against some south Asian currencies during last five years. Now cycle has reversed and both NZD and AUD should depreciate not only against USD but also some emerging and frontier markets currencies in Asia. Few Asian currencies including India rupee will go up against NZD, AUD and CAD in the coming quarters. They will go down against USD. On the other hand USD will appreciate not only against emerging currencies but also against currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD.

We can expect some volatility in some assets. Today Indian rupee and their market and Korean won down. In commodity market both Gold and Corn down.

It is time to do serious research on stocks, markets, currencies and commodities. There will be some of the best life time opportunities in global markets. Always there will be bull market somewhere. Lower currency rate in some countries will benefit their export companies in the coming months. Lower raw material cost will benefit some companies globally. 

In short I am bullish on selected commodities, selected sectors, USD, some markets including few frontier markets. In the medium term I am bullish on Asian currencies against CAD, AUD and NZD. New development will have positive effects on some sectors in Australia and New Zealand. There will be life time opportunities in global markets including emerging markets and frontier markets in the coming months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...es-fall-on-credit-crunch-bernanke-signal.html

China Stocks Fall to 6-Month Low on Credit Crunch,Manufacturing

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...before-u-s-housing-manufacturing-reports.html

Dollar Rises on Fed Before U.S. Data; Aussie Falls to 3-Year Low

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites_


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Yerp! and if you're a long time ZH reader, you will notice that the last time Chinese interbank yields were spiking like this was 2010, right when the Shanghai Comp was running ~3100.




Actually I first saw this mentioned in Charlie Aitken's email so I thought Zerohedge would definitely have something on it. It was just easier to post ZH's link as Charlie doesn't seem to like people re-telling his thoughts.

I used to read ZH a fair bit but now I only go there when I want to look for specific topics. Reading ZH too much is definitely bad for going long in anything (except gold, of course).


----------



## Trembling Hand

MARKETWINNER said:


> Corn down.




Great I love corn. opcorn:


----------



## mr. jeff

skyQuake said:


> Hope it was AUD shorts!




XAO shorts but this is the international markets thread....
On the Nikkei short looking for a break down below 13000
anyone else trading it ?
Haven't had trading like this for a long time
Shorts are very satisfying for some reason.
Something about spending so much time hoping the market was up in the US overnight when trading stocks and then being disappointed... when you are short, every bit of bad news means profit. 

Will the pressure let up or last through until the weekend ?


----------



## mr. jeff

mr. jeff said:


> XAO shorts but this is the international markets thread....
> On the Nikkei short looking for a break down below 13000
> anyone else trading it ?
> Haven't had trading like this for a long time
> Shorts are very satisfying for some reason.
> Something about spending so much time hoping the market was up in the US overnight when trading stocks and then being disappointed... when you are short, every bit of bad news means profit.
> 
> Will the pressure let up or last through until the weekend ?




Carnage again. 
All my trades hit their limits except one lonely XAO contract that I left to run past what I thought was possible.


----------



## kid hustlr

Interesting to see how long the keep dumping both stocks and bonds for. Obviously it's a liquidity/QE thing right now but at some stage there's a lot of big players out there who need to put their money somewhere.


----------



## CanOz

Always get a buzz out of a good short trade, stocks are more difficult than indices because the damage is done when they open, some gaps are not filled. 

The profits come faster, you need to be nimble as shorts cover quickly too.

CanOz

case in point - FXI jumped my stop order


----------



## avion

C'mon TH, make the HSI move....!


----------



## avion

Good lad.


----------



## Trembling Hand

I tried and I tried and I tried. In the end I just gave up and went of a :cup:

Here is my first hour and a bit work, 



Has got a bit better since but :horse:


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> I tried and I tried and I tried. In the end I just gave up and went of a :cup:
> 
> Here is my first hour and a bit work,
> View attachment 52912
> 
> 
> Has got a bit better since but :horse:




I know you never hold overnight.
But--say--200 ticks x 100 contracts = 200,000HKD

You could then buy the coffee shop next door!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> I know you never hold overnight.
> But--say--200 ticks x 100 contracts = 200,000HKD




Nah its a mil HKD

200 X 100 contacts x 50 HKD per point = $1,000,000



tech/a said:


> You could then buy the coffee shop next door!




I used to own 3 cafes and a bakery....... Never again. This is much easier


----------



## avion

And once you vent for a coffee that's when it broke out. I've had so many expensive toilet breaks that i am seriously thinking about buying one of those portable camping toilets for my trading room. Ah, the smell of it, huh...:disgust::flush:


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah its a mil HKD
> 
> 200 X 100 contacts x 50 HKD per point = $1,000,000
> 
> 
> 
> I used to own 3 cafes and a bakery....... Never again. This is much easier




Hell yeh.


----------



## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> Hell yeh.




Certainly not in that league but I have tripled my account this week
Still short into the afternoon but heeding your suggestion of a rebound overnight T/A


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Something might go haywire soon?
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-19/china-interbank-market-freezes-overnight-repo-explodes-25




http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ch...quidity-report-2013-06-20?link=MW_latest_news



> HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The People's Bank of China injected 50 billion yuan ($8.17 billion) into the financial system on Thursday after a cash squeeze pushed money-market rates to record highs, Bloomberg News reported, citing an official at a state-owned bank. The money was supplied to a single lender through short-term liquidity operations and more lenders were in talks with the central bank to obtain financing, the report said




Look like they fixed the problem for may be 2 hours.



mr. jeff said:


> Certainly not in that league but I have tripled my account this week
> Still short into the afternoon but heeding your suggestion of a rebound overnight T/A




That is never a good thing... :frown:


----------



## Trembling Hand

mr. jeff said:


> ...... I have tripled my account this week




How is that possible without having nutz position size?


----------



## boofis

mr. jeff said:


> tripled my account this week




I had 20c in my wallet on wednesday and found $1.05 in my coat jacket Thursday. My best trading results by far, SCORE.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ch...quidity-report-2013-06-20?link=MW_latest_news
> 
> 
> 
> Look like they fixed the problem for may be 2 hours.
> 
> 
> 
> That is never a good thing... :frown:






> Friday, 21 June 2013 11:46:21 AM  (CN) Reports related to move by PBoC to ease liquidity shortage said to have been not accurate - Chinese Press- Says the PBoC did not inject funding into the interbank market through reverse repos on Thursday. - Earlier reports suggested that the PBoC had provided window guidance to the larger banks aimed at freeing up cash in the financial system; Also, on yesterday's session there was speculation that the PBoC supplied CNY50B in targeted liquidity; On Thursday, the PBoC also auctioned CNY40B in 6-month MoF deposits at 6.5% v 4.8% in May. - China's overnight rate has declined by over 300bps on the session. - Source TradeTheNews.com




FYI


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> How is that possible without having nutz position size?




A very small account??

Im actually an expert in small business.
I generally start with big businesses!


----------



## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> A very small account??
> 
> Im actually an expert in small business.
> I generally start with big businesses!




A small account. Not very small. 
Can't handle too many zeroes - it is life altering which prevents sleep.
I trade very aggressively when the probability is high and "pyramid" as you call it.
Although last night I slept easy with markets sitting just below resistance prior to US opening (XAO,Nikkei) stops moved near break-even and just let it unroll. 
1/3 of my account at risk. 

I had a long on AUD/USD which I closed when no reaction materialized for a very small gain.That was the riskiest trade all week which was in hindsight stupid.

No doubt it will be a fleeting win. 
Credit to these threads for helping with direction and commitment - thanks.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee the HSI order book anit very thin!!!


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee the HSI order book anit very thin!!!
> 
> View attachment 52917




Ha was just about to post that, a couple mins ago, the spread on the mini was nearly 15 ticks with only a couple bids


----------



## kid hustlr

Fought back today. Still a rubbish week but im a noobie so I need to take the good with the bad. SFE bond as thin as I've seen them. Quite a sell off.


----------



## boofis

kid hustlr said:


> Fought back today. Still a rubbish week but im a noobie so I need to take the good with the bad. SFE bond as thin as I've seen them. Quite a sell off.




 Feel ya pain fellow newbie  Keep fighting!


----------



## skc

Today's profit / turnover....

2.27579E-05

The number was actually ~100x bigger at 3:59pm, but those stupid rebalance closing matches knocked me stupid.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> The number was actually ~100x bigger at 3:59pm, but those stupid rebalance closing matches knocked me stupid.




They probably will all come out in the wash just fine Monday......... unless you where closing them too??


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> Today's profit / turnover....
> 
> 2.27579E-05
> 
> The number was actually ~100x bigger at 3:59pm, but those stupid rebalance closing matches knocked me stupid.






Trembling Hand said:


> They probably will all come out in the wash just fine Monday......... unless you where closing them too??




Darn kids.. Get off my crowded trade lawn!


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> They probably will all come out in the wash just fine Monday......... unless you where closing them too??




Had a couple of directional stuff that I closed cos I didn't want to be naked into the weekend so gave a bit of profits back. The pairs stuff are fine. I just want my weekly P&L to look better than it is.



skyQuake said:


> Darn kids.. Get off my crowded trade lawn!




Lol. I am starting to think that no one is actually rebalancing on the day. It's all smaller traders like us trying to front run the rebalance bidding up/down the price leading into the close, then having to spill it all back out at the match.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> I just want my weekly P&L to look better than it is.




I just spat half chewed banana all over my screen. 

Piss off - I've wanted mine to look better for 13 years..... :


----------



## mr. jeff

T/A I know you were on the FTSE recently
Looking at the current daily action I see a break below a very significant level at 6220
What do you think of continuation on the short side down to next level ? 
My brain says it is the logical trade down to 6082 and then 6000 but other parts say the last 2 days have seen it over extend. 
When it is not clear you should never take the trade... but interested in interpretations.


----------



## tech/a

Here is one interpretation.


----------



## CanOz

Is that a-b-c apparent on the other indices Tech? I actually haven't checked yet, but quite often there can be those types of confluence during corrective moves.

CanOz


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Here is one interpretation.




And a second one based on the weekly, all bets are off if 5989 doesn't hold.


----------



## Trembling Hand

China opens down a tad and drops in a straight line. Now down 2.3% HSI following close behind.... nasty start.


----------



## Trembling Hand

My god! What is happening in China? Surely it cannot be that the dodgy pawn brokers come bankers are going bust?!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> My god! What is happening in China? Surely it cannot be that the dodgy pawn brokers come bankers are going bust?!
> 
> View attachment 52955




hehe, finally coming home to roost yeah!

I don't think China will be the only one in the red today once South America opens...

Like dominoes once the funds start moving the deck chairs.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> hehe, finally coming home to roost yeah!
> 
> I don't think China will be the only one in the red today once South America opens...
> 
> Like dominoes once the funds start moving the deck chairs.
> 
> CanOz




Monday gaps down have been pretty well bid up flat the last few weeks once the US opens. Though once that pattern fails she may really get ugly


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Monday gaps down have been pretty well bid up flat the last few weeks once the US opens. Though once that pattern fails she may really get ugly




Watching the ES and its looking to test the low from Friday in the EU session, lets see if that wedge plays out....not that you follow that type of thing

CanOz


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Watching the ES and its looking to test the low from Friday in the EU session, lets see if that wedge plays out....not that you follow that type of thing
> 
> CanOz




Things look to be getting quite ugly... we have US tapering, EU bailout season returning, credit crunch Chinese style, and mis-firing of Japanese arrows.

Feels like a biggish wave coming soon.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Things look to be getting quite ugly...




And how is poor old Skippy

Starting to look like Road Kill,


----------



## CanOz

The HSI was only down a lazy 450 points after China slid so hard...wow

Cooler heads prevailing

CanOz


----------



## mr. jeff

skc said:


> Things look to be getting quite ugly... we have US tapering, EU bailout season returning, credit crunch Chinese style, and mis-firing of Japanese arrows.
> 
> Feels like a biggish wave coming soon.




I see down trending triangles on several indices as well.
Whether the move is down or we see a refusal I do not know. Not long to wait before something is going to happen though...thoughts ?


----------



## boofis

Wow, that was a one way street. HSI packed them bags and headed 400 points south.


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Wow, that was a one way street. HSI packed them bags and headed 400 points south.




yep.... boy I fluffed that up..... was a good day....... 

Its sooooooo unfair!!


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> yep.... boy I fluffed that up..... was a good day.......
> 
> Its sooooooo unfair!!




Glad I'm not alone. Hindsight is the devil, got short at 940 but had a fairly rangebound bias doh.



"If only I let it run" haha.


----------



## avion

Same here, positive turned negative. One way train. What looked like range bound... sheesh....!


----------



## sinner

After suffering yet another incapacitating short term illness, I am starting to think that intraday discretionary trading is far too stressful for me, worse, it appears that winning seems to cause me more stress than losing (gotta keep winning). So I'm giving her up!


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> After suffering yet another incapacitating short term illness, I am starting to think that intraday discretionary trading is far too stressful for me, worse, it appears that winning seems to cause me more stress than losing (gotta keep winning). So I'm giving her up!




Sorry to hear that Sinner, you still system trading?


----------



## boofis

sinner said:


> After suffering yet another incapacitating short term illness, I am starting to think that intraday discretionary trading is far too stressful for me, worse, it appears that winning seems to cause me more stress than losing (gotta keep winning). So I'm giving her up!




For real Sinner? Sorry to hear your health is copping a beating!


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Sorry to hear that Sinner, you still system trading?




Yep absolutely CanOz. All my EOD systems still running, and still ongoing with the process of refining those systems down into the least correlated, lowest turnover set that I can achieve, basically trying to achieve something very similar to John Hussman.

- - - Updated - - -



boofis said:


> For real Sinner? Sorry to hear your health is copping a beating!




boofis, for real reals. On Thursday night, after an extremely profitable session spanning Tokyo and London, I was closing off a trade when I felt a very short but sharp twinge in my stomach. Shortly after I got nauseous, and very sick. For the next several days I was bed bound, eating only a very small amount of food, unable to think straight. The last few days I've been forcing myself to think less and less about the markets, actively avoiding stress, etc and my health has regained proportionally.


----------



## Trembling Hand

HAhah

100 points down and 100 points up in 15 min will fix any bad day! 

HSI


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> boofis, for real reals. On Thursday night, after an extremely profitable session spanning Tokyo and London, I was closing off a trade when I felt a very short but sharp twinge in my stomach. Shortly after I got nauseous, and very sick. For the next several days I was bed bound, eating only a very small amount of food, unable to think straight. The last few days I've been forcing myself to think less and less about the markets, actively avoiding stress, etc and my health has regained proportionally.




That sounds terrible! Look after yourself.

I rather be a healthy idiot than a stressed out gun trader.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Shortly after I got nauseous, and very sick. For the next several days I was bed bound, eating only a very small amount of food, unable to think straight. The last few days I've been forcing myself to think less and less about the markets, actively avoiding stress, etc and my health has regained proportionally.




Sounds about right. If you want to trade and can see a way around active intraday trading why wouldn't you. It is of no use trying be be perfect at everything when we all know its friggin' hard to get just one right.

And who wants to be a punch drunk grumpy crack addict with Turrets come down time.


----------



## boofis

This seng action is amazing.


----------



## CanOz

How many times do you or have you seen this move? The first leg is strong, longs can't out fast enough and they sell like crazy, shorts jump on for the ride. The market stops at a nice solid number, then the selling starts again, but this time there's a low/pause and some massive short covering begins...then a retest of the break, from now on every dip is a bounce with shorts covering....the market is too short, and a rally begins.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> How many times do you or have you seen this move? The first leg is strong, longs can't out fast enough and they sell like crazy, shorts jump on for the ride. The market stops at a nice solid number, then the selling starts again, but this time there's a low/pause and some massive short covering begins...then a retest of the break, from now on every dip is a bounce with shorts covering....the market is too short, and a rally begins.




Aren't you just describing the Frankfurt Open/hour before London open? :::


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Aren't you just describing the Frankfurt Open/hour before London open? :::




lol...same thing with more volume


----------



## avion

Was crying out loud for days like these only to fall like house of cards...

Unfrigginbelivable....

What do'ya reckon TH... start of a new leg up... is this one of those days to remember!!!!


----------



## CanOz

woo hoo, a little jaw boning to add some volatility to the day!



> (CN) China equity markets off session lows on rumors that PBoC, CSRC and CIRC might hold a joint new conference at 02:30 ET (06:30 GMT) to address recent market turmoil and liquidity issue (related CNY/USD CYB FXI USD/CNY ) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> What do'ya reckon TH... start of a new leg up... is this one of those days to remember!!!!




I'll remember it!!

My P & L


----------



## avion

Good one...

Hey i see new pattern: it's called Aries:


----------



## CanOz

The NK looks like it wants to take out 12800, maybe not today, but its a large consolidation pattern for those of you that like them!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> The NK looks like it wants to take out 12800, maybe not today, but its a large consolidation pattern for those of you that like them!




Give it 5 mins CanOz!!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...or-second-day-as-philippine-shares-rally.html

Emerging Stocks Rise Most in 2 Months as Philippine Shares Surge

http://www.iol.co.za/business/inter...s-for-frontier-markets-1.1536914#.UcqvejmN3IU

Less liquidity a plus for frontier markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...utures-are-little-changed-sap-might-move.html

European Stocks Climb as China Cash Crunch Eases


----------



## mr. jeff

MARKETWINNER said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...or-second-day-as-philippine-shares-rally.html
> 
> Emerging Stocks Rise Most in 2 Months as Philippine Shares Surge
> 
> http://www.iol.co.za/business/inter...s-for-frontier-markets-1.1536914#.UcqvejmN3IU
> 
> Less liquidity a plus for frontier markets
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...utures-are-little-changed-sap-might-move.html
> 
> European Stocks Climb as China Cash Crunch Eases



HS42 sitting right on the cusp
Could see a move up or a rejection shortly -  currently bullish


----------



## Trembling Hand

mr. jeff said:


> HS42 sitting right on the cusp
> Could see a move up or a rejection shortly -  currently bullish




What is HS42


----------



## mr. jeff

Hong Kong market
Sitting at 20,380 and building to a move - waiting patiently.


----------



## CanOz

The FTSE was a perfect SuperTrend trade today...

- - - Updated - - -



mr. jeff said:


> Hong Kong market
> Sitting at 20,380 and building to a move - waiting patiently.




Hope this wedge waits a while....


----------



## mr. jeff

mr. jeff said:


> Hong Kong market
> Sitting at 20,380 and building to a move - waiting patiently.




Just moved up through now  - along with XAO
it seems the markets like bad news in the US - more money printing...
 Stops above break-even.


----------



## Trembling Hand

mr. jeff said:


> Hong Kong market




LOL gee is that a good market to trade. Never seen it. 
Or maybe its the CFD name for something else?


----------



## mr. jeff

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL gee is that a good market to trade. Never seen it.
> Or maybe its the CFD name for something else?




Ha! seems to be the Hang Seng 40.
But yes named differently on my account to ensure confusion.
Wasn't much point in trading it with a massive commission.


----------



## Trembling Hand

mr. jeff said:


> Ha! seems to be the Hang Seng 40.
> But yes named differently on my account to ensure confusion.
> Wasn't much point in trading it with a massive commission.




Especially out of hours. If you hold from night session into the close you will be smashed anywhere up to 200 points or even more. The HSI has NO respect for US closes recently.

Hasn't it also got some nutz huge spread?


----------



## mr. jeff

Trembling Hand said:


> Especially out of hours. If you hold from night session into the close you will be smashed anywhere up to 200 points or even more. The HSI has NO respect for US closes recently.
> 
> Hasn't it also got some nutz huge spread?




yeah 40 pt spread that took half of the initial breakout last night which I posted. Pain in the $@# !


----------



## Trembling Hand

mr. jeff said:


> yeah 40 pt spread that took half of the initial breakout last night which I posted. Pain in the $@# !




F'n WHAT!!! 

Man you have to be kidding! You trade that? Futs are 1 - 3 points.... just lol!


----------



## sinner

mr. jeff said:


> yeah 40 pt spread that took half of the initial breakout last night which I posted. Pain in the $@# !




If breakouts succeed less than 50% of the time on average, and you're spending half your potential wins to enter a trade, how do you expect any edge to actually perform?


----------



## mr. jeff

sinner said:


> If breakouts succeed less than 50% of the time on average, and you're spending half your potential wins to enter a trade, how do you expect any edge to actually perform?




You are right
Won't happen again!
excessive


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> F'n WHAT!!!
> 
> Man you have to be kidding! You trade that? Futs are 1 - 3 points.... just lol!




yup 40pts. I had the unfortunate experience of holding a possie past 6pm and suddenly it was a 40 pt spread :bad:

In market hours however its a 12 pt spread... which can be fairly decent as executions are 'live' even when the futs are slow! ...and on wild days 12pt spreads are a bargain


----------



## sinner

Just saw this fantastic tweet:

 Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1h

ASX rises at an annualised pace of 2,500% under Treasurer @Bowenchris


----------



## avion

CNBC reported earlier this month that ISM's manufacturing data was inadvertently sent out early by Thomson Reuters on June 3rd to its high-speed clients, many of whom immediately traded on the information. There was a sharp market reaction to that burst of trading, which prompted downward moves in the SPY ETF, which serves as an investing tool for traders to bet on the overall direction of the market. That downward surge came *15 milliseconds* ahead of the official release time for the data. In an era of super-fast computer trading, 15 milliseconds is more than enough time to profit from early knowledge of market moving information.


----------



## Trembling Hand

So today is the last trading day of the financial year. Time to square off books. How is this for a trade. All, yes all, my years profit is still in HKD. Without even trying I've had a 12% increase in my account the last month! What a trade. ::


----------



## CanOz

Whats that strategy called, "Get Lucky Arb"?


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> So today is the last trading day of the financial year. Time to square off books. How is this for a trade. All, yes all, my years profit is still in HKD. Without even trying I've had a 12% increase in my account the last month! What a trade. ::
> 
> View attachment 53049




I'm squared as of Friday last week. I already ate my losses of converting JPY profits into AUD


----------



## avion

Something for charity....


----------



## Mel1974

sinner said:


> I'm squared as of Friday last week. I already ate my losses of converting JPY profits into AUD




sounds a bit risky to me


----------



## kid hustlr

That could be a very big brag or a very small brag.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ok gents I've had the market on a string this month. 

I was going for a gold stamp for worlds most consistent daytrader but this was my morning,





 Looks like a great way to finish EOFY.  

But now I'm back......




Where is my stamp?


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

Very impressive run there T/H (and a very impressive turnaround too!)


----------



## CanOz

Well done! Excellent work, take the rest if the day off!:bier:


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Ok gents I've had the market on a string this month.
> 
> I was going for a gold stamp for worlds most consistent daytrader but this was my morning,
> 
> View attachment 53061
> 
> 
> Looks like a great way to finish EOFY.
> 
> But now I'm back......
> 
> View attachment 53062
> 
> 
> Where is my stamp?




They must love you!

How did you get so far down in the morning?
Did you do more trades on the way down or up?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> They must love you!
> 
> How did you get so far down in the morning?
> Did you do more trades on the way down or up?




Its the benefit of trading prop. You end up like a violent wife beater. Don't like the market price you are getting??? Hit her harder.......  :badass:


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Its the benefit of trading prop. You end up like a violent wife beater. Don't like the market price you are getting??? Hit her harder.......  :badass:





I suspect it may have been your "Shane Warn Trade" TH


----------



## mr. jeff

Japan market possible entry at top of range - 13750




If the level holds there could be the opportunity for a move as far as 12450 - likely target 12900.
If it breaks out of this range, it could be quite a strong move up towards 14600.

Anyone trading the Nikkei ? 

I have opened a short with a tight stop at the outside of the range.


----------



## CanOz

mr. jeff said:


> Japan market possible entry at top of range - 13750
> 
> View attachment 53104
> 
> 
> If the level holds there could be the opportunity for a move as far as 12450 - likely target 12900.
> If it breaks out of this range, it could be quite a strong move up towards 14600.
> 
> Anyone trading the Nikkei ?
> 
> I have opened a short with a tight stop at the outside of the range.




Yup, watching for a bull trap here...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Yup, watching for a bull trap here...




I was initially thinking fade any jump but the more I look at it the more I'm thinking an upside is more likely. A couple of very high volume bars which might snap the elastic and cause some shorts to cover. Not a trade I'd take but it might be there.




Edit:

might of just popped a little now, interesting to see how it plays out


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, the NK broke out, see what happens into the cash close...


----------



## skyQuake

Only marginally related to discussion, but you should be looking at Nikkei on SGX. It does way more value than globex, marginally less than Osaka (but more volume), tick are 5pts compared to 10pts on N225, (8pts on IG Mkts)


----------



## kid hustlr

skyQuake said:


> Only marginally related to discussion, but you should be looking at Nikkei on SGX. It does way more value than globex, marginally less than Osaka (but more volume), tick are 5pts compared to 10pts on N225, (8pts on IG Mkts)





tx sky, i dont trade the NK, just keep it there for when I'm having a look at whats going on in the world scene. globex is 5 pts/ a tick as well but I hear what you are saying about SGX having the superior contract.

Just as a follow up - likely failed break out.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Volatility rise anyone? Good old fashion stop sweep...... Just like in the old days pre bots 




My head is about to explod!


----------



## fiftyeight

TH or anyone else, are there any articles or books you can recommend on how bots have/have not changed the markets?


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> TH or anyone else, are there any articles or books you can recommend on how bots have/have not changed the markets?




Would be a waste of time. unless you are scrubbing for ticks its not going to effect you.


----------



## fiftyeight

Nope, after reading your posts and other reading scrubbing for ticks is not for me.

That surprises me. I assumed the amount of money they seem to be (annecdotally) controlling would be enough to change markets like the flash crash in 2010. Or did the better bots just make money out of it?

Thoughts for another thread which I will start.

Fiftyeight


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> TH or anyone else, are there any articles or books you can recommend on how bots have/have not changed the markets?




This one was pretty interesting, better if you can understand the depth of market a little bit first...


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Nope, after reading your posts and other reading scrubbing for ticks is not for me.




I don't know anyone here who scalps?!


----------



## avion

Hey TH, give us your p&l graph for this morning session, just for some inspiration


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Hey TH, give us your p&l graph for this morning session, just for some inspiration




How's this look,


----------



## fiftyeight

Haha I am sure if I looked real hard I could find somebody who scalps, not saying they do or do not scalp profitalby.

Excuse my less than perfect terminology, but anything that requires me spending extended periods watching the markets live does not suit me. At this stage, I have changed a few times so who knows

Fiftyeight


----------



## avion

A black hole... can't be that bad mate, you said you seen this before, a classic old fashioned stop sweep... i have no idea what you mean but assuming you've seen it before is should look like this:


----------



## avion

Here is mine, down there somwhere:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Looks like red is in this season!


----------



## mr. jeff

Hey CanOz just shifting over to this thread
Yeah I think a strong move lower after a fake push higher
But I can't see the future, so really it is heads / tails except taking into account disruptions in Euro and Egypt which skews the market towards selling - if I were a trader in the US with open longs, I would start selling going in to a holiday and such risky events unfolding...

What do you mean by ES?


----------



## mr. jeff

mr. jeff said:


> Hey CanOz just shifting over to this thread
> Yeah I think a strong move lower after a fake push higher
> But I can't see the future, so really it is heads / tails except taking into account disruptions in Euro and Egypt which skews the market towards selling - if I were a trader in the US with open longs, I would start selling going in to a holiday and such risky events unfolding...
> 
> What do you mean by ES?




I'm looking to play short FTSE's tonight at 6187 looking for 6156 ... if it ever manages to finish this battle going on - very interesting on the 30 minute chart with big long tails up and down but closing almost flat.


----------



## mr. jeff

And some minor US data gives a spike up
At least the range is broken
Whether it holds up I can't tell. 
I have taken the entry for a short with a stop just above the recent trading
A bit opportunistic but easily defined risk


----------



## CanOz

yup, the ADP number was betterthan expected, threw gold down on the floor too...

Now the initial jobless claims, and theyre slightly better...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I expect some rebound in stocks in frontier and emerging world sooner than later. On valuations some sectors especially consumer staples in frontier world are very attractive now. Some Asian export sector too will benefit due to depreciation of their currencies agents USD. We will see bull markets in few sectors and few Asian and African frontier markets in 2013 and 2014.

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-selloff-dip-toes-back-051658575.html

After selloff, some dip toes back in emerging markets.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MARKETWINNER said:


> I expect some rebound in stocks in frontier and emerging world sooner than later. On valuations




Ouch! Nothing but grumpy sellers today on the open....


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Ouch! Nothing but grumpy sellers today on the open....




Don't call others grumpy just because you are!

For the first time since a while, the US market moved up despite higher tapering expectation (due to strong NFP)... I thought that was a pretty bullish sign. Yet it seems the bullishness didn't translate to Asian markets. May be it means foreign money will more likely find its way back into the stronger $US domestic markets?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Don't call others grumpy just because you are!




Normal me 

After first 30 min today 



skc said:


> For the first time since a while, the US market moved up despite higher tapering expectation (due to strong NFP)... I thought that was a pretty bullish sign. Yet it seems the bullishness didn't translate to Asian markets. May be it means foreign money will more likely find its way back into the stronger $US domestic markets?




It is Monday morning though. They rarely count for anything that resembles reality.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> It is Monday morning though. They rarely count for anything that resembles reality.




Told ya! Monday mornings don't count......  




450 Down, 540 back up...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...mp-on-stimulus-view-as-asia-futures-fall.html

Europe Stocks Gain as Asia Shares Fall While Bonds Rise


----------



## Trembling Hand

MARKETWINNER said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...mp-on-stimulus-view-as-asia-futures-fall.html
> 
> Europe Stocks Gain as Asia Shares Fall While Bonds Rise




Dude we all have access to Blomey. You got an opinion or trade or original observation?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Grrrr! These butter bids on the HSI are some what annoying!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Grrrr! These butter bids on the HSI are some what annoying!




lol, whats a butter bid?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> lol, whats a butter bid?




Apply heat and watch them melt!!


----------



## CanOz

Ahh like a spoof, they just disappear..

I saw a flip yesterday...there was 23 showing on the inside bid (i think it was the Dax or CL, so larger than normal the time). He obviously wanted a fill a little higher, because after the market popped a few points he pulled the 23, which was replaced by 5 or something, then hit swept offer for 23. Happened very quickly.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Any bets on the NK breaking out beyond 14500 this morning?

CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Any bets on the NK breaking out beyond 14500 this morning?
> 
> CanOz




Reckon sheer variance will get us there, been a small range in the morn so far


----------



## CanOz

Far out, trying to build up a decent set of stats on my practice account and i cant even get connected to take the most obvious trade the whole week.

Going to have to swap the router out when i get back, my new 20g connection is useless.

I hate this place, nearly time to move i reckon.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ok its now official. HSI has completely lost its mind!!


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Ok its now official. HSI has completely lost its mind!!




Further confirmed 10 minutes later on the trade data print. I was caught a bit long on the equity side...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Further confirmed 10 minutes later on the trade data print. I was caught a bit long on the equity side...




When i grow up i wanna be like one of those dudes that walk-up an index 250 points before data knowing its a crap number then smash it back 400 points the other way....... RESPECT!! :bowdown:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> When i grow up i wanna be like one of those dudes that walk-up an index 250 points before data knowing its a crap number then smash it back 400 points the other way....... RESPECT!! :bowdown:




Go ask the boss for a limit increase. Would 1000 contracts be enough?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Go ask the boss for a limit increase. Would 1000 contracts be enough?




Ha! No I don't think it would be!!!

And not sure I have the balls,




Clearly that was the play coming into the ann. I could see a dude empting into the ann and decided to put in a feible order short. Ha what a sook. I scratched it with 1/2 a second to go.... 


300 points later......


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Clearly that was the play coming into the ann. I could see a dude empting into the ann and decided to put in a feible order short. Ha what a sook. I scratched it with 1/2 a second to go....
> 
> 300 points later......




You can't win them all everyday...

Me: 10 winning days out of last 11


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Me: 10 winning days out of last 11




Nice one. 

Ya gotta admit though this trading gig is like soooooo easy.......


----------



## CanOz

Well done guys...that's why you're pro's and were just wanna be's!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Well done guys...that's why you're pro's and were just wanna be's!




Oh you have no idea how smug I'm feeling at the mo. Watch me size up and BLOW UP.....


----------



## MARKETWINNER

What we are seeing now is natural correction in an overall bull market. June sell off have created some of the great opportunities in Asian region.

Exporters in Asia will benefit in the coming months and quarters due to new development. If I am correct JPMorgan Asset Management and Charlemagne Capital Ltd have some interest in Korean market after seeing great value. Soft and food and hot beverage based commodity producers, electronics and auto exporters should benefit in Asia. Valuations are very cheap and there are excellent opportunities in Asian emerging and frontier Export sector now. 

In addition Asian consumer staples sector will outperform other sectors in the coming years and decades due to higher number of mouths in the in future. Asian and pacific region will have more demand for protein based products, food and beverage products in the coming two decades. Some multinational companies operating  in Asian region, USA and Europe will have strong demand for their tech and food based products in the coming two decades.

It is time to identify companies in USA, USA, UK, Germany, Netherland, Australia, New Zealand, frontier and emerging world especially Asian region  to get above average results in the future from mega trend in Asia.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## kid hustlr

Marketwinner are you a bot?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh you have no idea how smug I'm feeling at the mo. Watch me size up and BLOW UP.....




And right on cue I get a call from the big man up above...... "easy does it tiger"


:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Ya gotta admit though this trading gig is like soooooo easy.......




My daily from June... not bad after a flat May.






Trembling Hand said:


> Oh you have no idea how smug I'm feeling at the mo. Watch me size up and BLOW UP.....




Another downside of having a good run... I used to be very happy with $X profit, but now I shift my expectation towards the top end of the bell curve everyday and really I am just setting myself up for disappointment.



kid hustlr said:


> Marketwinner are you a bot?




Took the words right out of my mouth. Or may be he gets paid per post or something...


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> My daily from June... not bad after a flat May.
> 
> View attachment 53264
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Another downside of having a good run... I used to be very happy with $X profit, but now I shift my expectation towards the top end of the bell curve everyday and really I am just setting myself up for disappointment.
> 
> 
> 
> Took the words right out of my mouth. Or may be he gets paid per post or something...




Interesting, the only trading that our capital is doing for real at the moment would have a P/L a little like yours...that choppy period in May/June really drew down the funds...:frown:

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> My daily from June... not bad after a flat May.
> 
> View attachment 53264




Yeah V.nice. With a month like that your confidence will really grow and then you will be able to control the market by just thinking about it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah V.nice. With a month like that your confidence will really grow and then you will be able to control the market by just thinking about it.




Careful not to be overconfident.  That might cause you to bolw up.


----------



## avion

MARKETWINNER said:


> What we are seeing now is natural correction in an overall bull market. June sell off have created some of the great opportunities in Asian region.....






> Marketwinner are you a bot?




Marketwinner, just ignore this bunch...
Reading bar by bar on one minute chart often hides the bigger picture... can't see the forest from looking closely at the trees someone once told me 

Keep your posts up mate, they are interesting read.


----------



## skyQuake

post market bernanke comments...

Risk ON!


----------



## sinner

Just my  on last nights 2008esque move:

Before I went to bed (and the EURUSD was trading on 20day lows) liquidity sentiment was not exactly giving away any clues to direction, with providers only 3% net short. To give you an idea how narrow this sentiment is, liquidity providers are >70% net short on AUDUSD.

However this morning it's more like 0.5-1% net short, so liquidity providers definitely got the short end of the stick and forced to cover a fair chunk of the net position. My guess is retail traders made out like bandits last night.

An interesting note: if you want to know what 400 points of EURUSD is worth, it's about 2% of the liquidity provider net position it seems


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Interesting, the only trading that our capital is doing for real at the moment would have a P/L a little like yours...that choppy period in May/June really drew down the funds...:frown:
> 
> CanOz




This is our fund performance as i mentioned above. Some nice open profit to get us back to where we started. Obviously we might be giving some of that back soon but hopefully we can max this run out...This is a portfolio of 12 futures systems from Strategic Capital Management in NZ. Start with a nice temper testing draw-down right from the beginning.


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> post market bernanke comments...
> 
> Risk ON!




"We *will *taper if the economy turns up..." = Risk OFF.

"We *won't *taper unless the economy turns up..." = Risk ON.

No wonder the market is referred to as feral pig.


----------



## mr. jeff

skc said:


> "We *will *taper if the economy turns up..." = Risk OFF.
> 
> "We *won't *taper unless the economy turns up..." = Risk ON.
> 
> No wonder the market is referred to as feral pig.




This is a pic of the Fed's main liquidity control panel




Except you don't get penalized for tilting the table if you are the fed.


----------



## CanOz

lol....well done Jeff!


----------



## tech/a

> Strategic Capital Management in NZ




Is that Andrew?


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Is that Andrew?




Yes it is.


----------



## notting

My assessment of Bens comments last night was a reaction to the numbers coming out of China.
People are betting the Chinese will stimulate.
This is a mistake.
China has overcapacity in infrustructure and just about everything else.
It also has massive property bubble.
They are about to learn the true genius of free markets from bottom up supply demand as apposed to the mistake of thinking communist visionaries can create/manipulate/manufacture the whole thing from the top down.

Prior to the recent spike in oil due to the Egypt issue, China's inflation was getting out of hand again!
With oil up, the most powerful fuel for China's food inflation and more stimulus will just inflate the thing for an even bigger explosion.
They will not stimulate unless it's out of total desperation in which case the catastrophe will all ready be playing out.
Not good for ausi resources, apart from gold maybe.


----------



## mr. jeff

Very interesting comments Notting and there has barely been a thing said about $100 oil and what it will do to inflation - I guess it is of little concern to most economies that have little inflation at all - China being the exception but even with all the recent data from China, the market moves up - not much effect recently. 
Maybe storing the downside for a shock move precipitated with a further growth revision?


----------



## MARKETWINNER

avion said:


> Marketwinner, just ignore this bunch...
> Reading bar by bar on one minute chart often hides the bigger picture... can't see the forest from looking closely at the trees someone once told me
> 
> Keep your posts up mate, they are interesting read.





Thanks avion. I just write my ideas based on my analysis. Global bull markets still have legs. In addition there will be volatility in all types of markets.

In a roaring bull market volatility and disruptions create buying opportunities. I became bearish on Gold, AUD and NZD and bullish on USD before others. I also see some great long term opportunities in developed markets if we analyze five to seven year time horizon. In short we have great opportunities in almost all types of markets such as currency, commodity and stock markets in developed, emerging and frontier world. I have done more study on USA market and frontier market. Later I decided to to follow other markets. At the moment I am exploring coming opportunities in Australasia. After USD there will be few more bull currencies. It is time to identify next most bullish stocks, commodities, currencies before others.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## Aussiejeff

Potential spanner in the worx?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Aussiejeff said:


> Potential spanner in the worx?




Bad news is good.....


Good news is probably bad....


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100873587

Russell 2000: Small-Cap Stocks Rally””New Market Highs Ahead?


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...index-futures-fall-ericsson-sap-may-move.html

Most European Stocks Gain as Publicis Climbs


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ignal-stock-rebound-on-u-s-as-wti-climbs.html

Asian Futures Signal Stock Rebound on U.S. as WTI Climbs

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1197...sh-for-axjs.html?puc=tsczacks&cm_ven=TSCZACKS

IShares MSCI All Country Asia Ex Japan Small-Cap Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average - Bullish For AXJS


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Where's Canoz?  He's normally here all day every day.  Chinese authorities must have caught up with him.


----------



## Trembling Hand

NK getting absolutely smashed. 2 % in 10 min!!!!


----------



## avion

Gringotts Bank said:


> Where's Canoz?  He's normally here all day every day.  Chinese authorities must have caught up with him.




Stuck in transit lounge, seeking asylum in Russia perhaps...:1zhelp:

HSI, yeah but quick to slow down again after hitting support....

EDIT: TH, thought you are referring to HSI, similar story... how did you go?


----------



## CanOz

Lol....should be asleep but couldn't resist a late night ham, cheese and dill pickle Sanger before bed....in gorgeous clean, clear and very green New Brunswick Canada!

Lurking as wifi allows


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...on-Stock-Exchange-sees-40pc-revenue-jump.html

London Stock Exchange sees 40pc revenue jump

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4768e30e-f04d-11e2-929c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Zg2qOfoh

London’s FTSE falls as miners weaken


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> Lol....should be asleep but couldn't resist a late night ham, cheese and dill pickle Sanger before bed....in gorgeous clean, clear and very green New Brunswick Canada!
> 
> Lurking as wifi allows




Doing any casting and blasting(?)?


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-22/european-stock-futures-are-little-changed-ubs-may-move.html

European Stocks Rise for Fourth Day as UBS, Philips Gain

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...tures-rally-on-abe-win-after-u-s-advance.html

Copper Leads Metals Higher as European Stocks Rise

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...s-maintain-winning-streak-113072000097_1.html

Weekly: FMCG rally helps markets maintain winning streak
India's benchmark share indices surged for the fourth straight week amid a rally in FMCG stocks and upbeat earnings from software major TCS


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...near-two-month-high-as-fed-concern-eases.html

Asian Stocks Advance on China Growth, Fed Stimulus


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ha! Finally a spoofter gets the cucumber rumba!!



> The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Monday that it had set penalties of $2.8 million on Panther Energy Trading for a practice known as “spoofing,” in which bogus orders are used to draw in other traders. The firm and its owner, Michael J. Coscia, were also barred from trading for a year.
> 
> The agency said it was the first case to be brought using new rules against spoofing contained in the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation.




http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/07...is-fined-and-barred/?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Finally a spoofter gets the cucumber rumba!!
> 
> 
> 
> http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/07...is-fined-and-barred/?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1




Just wait a couple of years and the ASX/SFE will follow suit!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...futures-little-changed-syngenta-may-move.html

European Stocks Advance as Volvo, EasyJet Shares Jump


----------



## havaiana

Heads up to anyone on YEN or NIKKEI, Kuroda talking in 10 mins

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/...ank-of-japan-head-kuroda-to-speak-at-0330gmt/


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Finally a spoofter gets the cucumber rumba!!
> 
> 
> 
> http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/07...is-fined-and-barred/?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1




Watch microstructure in these markets "devolve" to the way they were just a few years ago!

Great news for free markets imho.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Watch microstructure in these markets "devolve" to the way they were just a few years ago!
> 
> Great news for free markets imho.




So any idea what markets are most affected Sinner? I guess energies and the other US markets? Does this mean we will see less spoofing, fewer iceberg, etc? 

FWIW, i've seen less spoofing in CL and GC but i just thought it was summer activity.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> So any idea what markets are most affected Sinner? I guess energies and the other US markets? Does this mean we will see less spoofing, fewer iceberg, etc?
> 
> FWIW, i've seen less spoofing in CL and GC but i just thought it was summer activity.




I think it'll happen first with firms which are most worried about getting the same treatment as Panther, i.e. their closest competitors. Rather than a particular market, it's more about which markets those firms are trading in? Hope that makes sense.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> I think it'll happen first with firms which are most worried about getting the same treatment as Panther, i.e. their closest competitors. Rather than a particular market, it's more about which markets those firms are trading in? Hope that makes sense.




Yeah, makes sense.


----------



## sinner

After 2 weeks in India for work and only minimal trading access, I am back in the seat and looking at all the new highs on the indexes I track, and wondering how sustainable it is, then I look at breadth and it's telling me still not yet, we just aren't seeing the deterioration which we saw running into the flash crash or 2011 ugliness and definitely nothing like the insane breadth weakness running into the GFC. Even the Aussie market seems "healthy" in this respect, with indices retracing on resources pain, rather than pushing higher.

I also note some of my more predictive stuff (an example of which I posted not long ago in its own thread) concurs that these new highs aren't especially dangerous, with focus on various market fundamentals playing a much greater role than macro scare risk.

For long term stuff this is definitely not the place to be initiating new longs, but on the short term I would not fight the trend and look for little swings here and there as well as trying to capture those wonderful low volatility drifts when they come about.

I'll be on holidays off work from Monday for a week or two, so you guys will probably have to put up with some heavy posting volume from me :


----------



## CanOz

Looking like a pretty good start to the month so far, equity markets up, CL and GC up....:bananasmi

I will have put the mozz on it now...

Seems risk is truly on the menu...



> *(ES) SPAIN DEBT AGENCY (TESOSO) SELLS TOTAL â‚¬3.22B VS. â‚¬2.0-3.0B INDICATED RANGE IN 2016 AND 2018 BONDS - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...dex-futures-rise-before-ecb-boe-meetings.html

European Stocks Advance before Central-Bank Meetings

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...llar-by-most-since-january-as-oil-climbs.html

Stocks Beat Bonds by Most since January as Crude Oil Climbs

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...vance-after-fed-maintains-bond-buying-program

Asian Stocks Climb as China PMI Expands, Fed Maintains Stimulus


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://heraldbulletin.com/breakingnews/x738615911/S-P-500-crosses-1-700-points-for-the-first-time

S&P 500 crosses 1,700 points for the first time


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nk taking it all very bad.


----------



## CanOz

nothing like a few 80 point swings in the first 20 minutes of HSI action:viking:


----------



## JLM Financial

Put/Call ratios in the US for equities have stayed at 0.58 whereas put/call ratios for indices have increased from 1.15 to 1.24 in the past two weeks. 

The market is probably bullish on US equities. At the same time, they are hedging their bets with index puts.


----------



## CanOz

Just saw a hundred lot on the offer on the HSI....TH are you spoofing?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Just saw a hundred lot on the offer on the HSI....TH are you spoofing?




Worked a treat didn't it....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Worked a treat didn't it....




Scared the crap out of the bids...:22_yikes:


----------



## skyQuake

Looks like someone fat fingered in the SHCOMP today

Funny that the HSI is still going!


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Looks like someone fat fingered in the SHCOMP today
> 
> Funny that the HSI is still going!




hmmm, Kospi too


----------



## Trembling Hand

Usual China rate cut rumours. What a trap.... 







There was a blatant and nasty seller on the Seng right from the open. Either he was pushing and loading up or he is feeling very ill at the mo.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Usual China rate cut rumours. What a trap....
> 
> 
> 
> There was a blatant and nasty seller on the Seng right from the open. Either he was pushing and loading up or he is feeling very ill at the mo.




Just before the close for lunch i noticed some size on the bid that was quite happy to be continually filled. Not icebergs but just big bids at different levels under the high, kept getting filled...


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> ... pushing and loading up ...




Does this mean pushing it down to get long?


----------



## CanOz

lol, indigestion again!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Just before the close for lunch i noticed some size on the bid that was quite happy to be continually filled. Not icebergs but just big bids at different levels under the high, kept getting filled...



yes and for that I thank him.... 







havaiana said:


> Does this mean pushing it down to get long?




Well who knows. A lot easier said than done. It was a very high volume sess even before the take off. And the last of the action was a 100 point push and ripper of a sweep to close a gap right to the tick. The way its opened back up looks like a genuine **** fight.


----------



## havaiana

More earthquakes in NZ, hopefully nothing too big


----------



## havaiana

from forexlive relating to shanghai comp

"Further to previous posts/comments there does indeed seem to be increasing substance to the story that Everbright Securities prop desk were allegedly the guilty party of a fat-fingered CNY 7 bln trade

Their shares have been suspended amidst talk now that regulators are investigating the incident"


----------



## Trembling Hand

Howz china futs??  from -1,2 to 5.5% higher then back to flat. 

must of been bots.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Howz china futs??  from -1,2 to 5.5% higher then back to flat.
> 
> must of been bots.




LOL it was a bot.  

Ill go back in my hole now....... :bunny:


----------



## kid hustlr

This 6% fat finger, whats the recourse from that?

I mean Im thinking something like that could literally wipe out locals?

Is it possible careers got ended yesterday? (not just the everbright securities guy)


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> This 6% fat finger, whats the recourse from that?
> 
> I mean Im thinking something like that could literally wipe out locals?
> 
> Is it possible careers got ended yesterday? (not just the everbright securities guy)




Nah. It would hurt but if you cannot fix a 6% swing against you then you wouldn't be a local. Couple of weeks to fix even if it was worst case short at lows cover at highs.


----------



## havaiana

Here's another article from bloomberg re: everbright fat finger

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-18/everbright-trading-error-adds-to-china-broker-s-woes.html

What's interesting is because they were hoping the contracts would be broken and they weren't, they now still hold all these long positions and everyone knows it and knows they need to liquidate them at some point


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Here's another article from bloomberg re: everbright fat finger
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-18/everbright-trading-error-adds-to-china-broker-s-woes.html
> 
> What's interesting is because they were hoping the contracts would be broken and they weren't, they now still hold all these long positions and everyone knows it and knows they need to liquidate them at some point




An Arb trade?



> Everbright’s trading system placed an accumulated 23.4 billion yuan of buy orders, of which 7.27 billion yuan was transacted. The brokerage sold 1.85 billion yuan in exchange-traded funds, along with short-selling 7,130 contracts of index futures, according to the statement on the CSRC website.




What were they trying to accomplish here, like a spread trade? Long the equities, which i assume were lagging and short the ETFs and the Index futs...?

In the process they spiked all three?


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> An Arb trade?
> 
> 
> 
> What were they trying to accomplish here, like a spread trade? Long the equities, which i assume were lagging and short the ETFs and the Index futs...?
> 
> In the process they spiked all three?




Think their buy order was probably a magnitude or two bigger than expected, and the REAL arb bots had a field day.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Think their buy order was probably a magnitude or two bigger than expected, and the REAL arb bots had a field day.




Too funny...why in the world would you even allow these cowboys:cowboy: to have a Prop Desk in such an immature and corrupt market?


----------



## CanOz

Just heard on the TTN squawk that there was a bond error on todays trading...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Just heard on the TTN squawk that there was a bond error on todays trading...




Yeah the same blokes haha


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah the same blokes haha




Crazy stuff, so much for the prop desk being closed! Maybe they fat fingered a client trade or something


----------



## havaiana

I know this isn't the right spot to post this, but couldn't figure where else to put it

"We are happy to announce the certification of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform by Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). "

source http://www.metaquotes.net/en/metatrader5/news/4025

Never seen an announcement like this, does asx do this for other platforms? what exactly does it mean?


----------



## CanOz

Asia sold off nicely today...wow


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Asia sold off nicely today...wow




Yeah whats going on?

I read your post about india, is that it?

to use an old expression, its very risk off in here today!


----------



## CanOz

Not sure what the catylst was, but the K200 and the Seng topped out and sold off pretty quick...got a nice video of it all, the rollover on both.


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah whats going on?
> 
> I read your post about india, is that it?
> 
> to use an old expression, its very risk off in here today!




The QE taper is going to create some breakdown in cross-market correlations...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-economies-as-capital-flows-back-to-u-s-.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nk approaching 3% down!


----------



## CanOz

Again....



> (CN) Daily Shibor fixings- O/N: 3.8540% (highest since June 30th) v 3.4030% prior- 1-week: 4.4280% (highest since July - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL at the HSI. Only a 600 odd Tick intra day range....


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe some economies in emerging markets and frontier markets would prove resilient. Current sell off in some emerging markets create great mid and long term opportunities. Companies with strong local demand, export companies with permanent customer base and consumer staples sector in emerging world will become great winners in the future. They will earn in good times and bad times. Cyclical sectors will under-perform in the short run. As a result of slow down in some emerging markets commodity producing countries too will have some slow down in the short run.
,
We cannot ignore the strong and attractive longer term demographic and growth profile of most emerging markets, especially in Asia.  

Those markets which had great rally can have correction one by one and those markets which under-performed during last couple of years will outperform others in the coming quarters. Some markets are building their base now. It is time to identify next bullish sectors, commodities, currencies and markets before others. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/20/us-markets-global-idUSBRE96S00E20130820

Asia stocks slide as Fed easing outlook frays nerves

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ferocious selling on the SENG.......


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> Ferocious selling on the SENG.......




LOL, thought that was you. China enterprise was trying to hold but away we go again.


----------



## skyQuake

boofis said:


> LOL, thought that was you. China enterprise was trying to hold but away we go again.




jeeze that volume!

I bet those that bought a "bargain" after the 600pt fall are being forced out right now.

Edit: Looks like cap vol low now?


----------



## peterfootwork

boofis said:


> LOL, thought that was you. China enterprise was trying to hold but away we go again.




Interactive Brokers can't handle it either. HK and Au offline . 

Just closed Spi trade 5 mins before.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Edit: Looks like cap vol low now?




Yeah you can thank me for a bit of that. Got long a 60 points too soon............. 

- - - Updated - - -

Volume? you want Volume!!


----------



## havaiana

peterfootwork said:


> ...
> Just closed Spi trade 5 mins before.




SPI holding up surprisingly well


----------



## havaiana

interesting post "Comparing the vulnerability of Asian markets in 1997 to now"

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/21/comparing-the-vulnerability-of-asian-markets-in-1997-to-now/

edit: probably best just to read the article it's based on, it highlights differences as well as similarities

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/08/20/the-vulnerability-of-asian-markets-then-1997-and-now-2013/


----------



## peterfootwork

Sorry to Interactive Brokers. 

IINET and Internode have Asia link (routing??) problems.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-first-time-in-five-days-as-pension-buys.html

Indonesian Stocks Climb First Time in Five Days as Pension Buys

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...eal-the-show/article5044199.ece?homepage=true

Sensex up 182 points; Bank, consumer durables stocks steal the show


----------



## blue0810

peterfootwork said:


> Sorry to Interactive Brokers.
> 
> IINET and Internode have Asia link (routing??) problems.




You can close your positions now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Very interesting how the Kospi, HSI and in part the Nk has taken a battering and the SPI and  Shanghai have done little the last few days. Who/which one will win out here?


----------



## peterfootwork

Trembling Hand said:


> Very interesting how the Kospi, HSI and in part the Nk has taken a battering and the SPI and  Shanghai have done little the last few days. Who/which one will win out here?




I have observed that when Gold price moves/QE easing is in the news, and we (AU) are in earnings season, we are not strongly correlated with ES and AUD moves. 

Can't talk for Shanghai though.....


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...-global-cues/article5044199.ece?homepage=true

Sensex down 112 points on global cues; FMCG, oil & gas stocks slip


----------



## avion

MARKETWINNER said:


> http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...-global-cues/article5044199.ece?homepage=true
> 
> Sensex down 112 points on global cues; FMCG, oil & gas stocks slip




Marketwinner, why do you think this is important? Whole bunch of markets were down yesterday and some were up... While i encouraged you to post and i am always looking forward to your opinion i will have to agree with others that simply posting a link and sentence that certain market is up is clogging up the thread. We all scan general news and come to the discussion for extra ideas, interesting trades and opinions, not for more general market news. (That and the fact i hate seeing people being abused on the board.)

I would love to know what are you trading, how did you go with the last few trades and perhaps a reason you think a certain opportunity is looking good. For example the latest Fed notes gave no clue as to QE tapering. I expect volatile Asian session today, perhaps a range bound because markets lack direction, dont forget HSBC PMI today which may give it a bit of a interesting twist. But all this is my opinion but it is an opinion and that's what i and others are looking for. Please don't take this the wrong way but just a gentle push for more of your own ideas that you are happy to share.

Happy trading.


----------



## Trembling Hand

PMI got things going hey!?

Aussie bonds loved it........


----------



## CanOz

The Kospi seems lazy yet and i thought we might get a bit more shorts covering on the Seng, sort of fizzled out now...


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> PMI got things going hey!?
> 
> Aussie bonds loved it........
> 
> View attachment 53964




Im surprised the seng didn't jump more.

This is just a rout in the bonds now. Our long end is so highly correlated to the us 10 year and its just broken through a pretty big level to.

Got this meeting thing tomorrow morning as well so its all a bit of a perfect storm!

Feels over done right now but long term more pain im guessing!


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> The Kospi seems lazy yet and i thought we might get a bit more shorts covering on the Seng, sort of fizzled out now...




Nikkei could get a lot of shorts covering if it goes up a bit more, hopefully one will pop and drag the others, might have to wait till after lunch


----------



## avion

kid hustlr said:


> Im surprised the seng didn't jump more.





Same here, the news was rather positive...


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Im surprised the seng didn't jump more.




Think who/whatever has been responsible for that nasty selling the last few days just protected yesterdays close. Lot of bullets fired in the 15 after the PMI and effectively they got nowhere!


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> Think who/whatever has been responsible for that nasty selling the last few days just protected yesterdays close. Lot of bullets fired in the 15 after the PMI and effectively they got nowhere!




Hasn't retraced much yet, if it gets back up there again can't you just sweep through it for us all please?


----------



## MARKETWINNER

avion said:


> Marketwinner, why do you think this is important? Whole bunch of markets were down yesterday and some were up... While i encouraged you to post and i am always looking forward to your opinion i will have to agree with others that simply posting a link and sentence that certain market is up is clogging up the thread. We all scan general news and come to the discussion for extra ideas, interesting trades and opinions, not for more general market news. (That and the fact i hate seeing people being abused on the board.)
> 
> I would love to know what are you trading, how did you go with the last few trades and perhaps a reason you think a certain opportunity is looking good. For example the latest Fed notes gave no clue as to QE tapering. I expect volatile Asian session today, perhaps a range bound because markets lack direction, dont forget HSBC PMI today which may give it a bit of a interesting twist. But all this is my opinion but it is an opinion and that's what i and others are looking for. Please don't take this the wrong way but just a gentle push for more of your own ideas that you are happy to share.
> 
> Happy trading.




Hi Avion

Thank you for your concrete ideas. I really appreciate. I would like to contribute more in the future. Everyday we can learn something. Even from some articles. Yes Whole bunches of markets were down yesterday and some were up.

My general idea is market players have overreacted to tapering. These types of situations create opportunities for some intelligent players. Remember lower currency will benefit some sectors in India. For example if I am correct Tata Tea beverages (Tata Tea) up yesterday in India. Even today at this moment it is up. Please note at the moment I don’t have any position in this stock. I am following all market such as emerging, frontier and developed markets especially few important markets. I joined this forum to learn about Australian market while contributing my knowledge and skills in other areas. I feel this forum in very comfortable for me.

I believe there will be opportunities in developed, frontier and emerging markets in the coming decade. Time to time there will be market hiccups. Those are part of market journey.*

I believe that we are having a market correction in some emerging markets.*In every situation some sectors will outperform others. It was same during period of world wars. Those investors who invested in some exports companies with strong export market will benefit lot in emerging world due to new development. Different funds mangers and investors will have different types of portfolios. Fund managers with right portfolio will outperform others in emerging world. We can expect more volatility in emerging markets in the short run.

Definitely some emerging currencies will have volatility in the coming days and weeks. In the long run there will be more opportunities in emerging world. Emerging world is not dead. We should not forget their huge populations and mega trends in the coming decade*

It is surprise to see frontier markets have seen some positive inflows over the past few weeks.

Please see fowling link.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100976786

Frontier markets feel the love as emerging peers crumble

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## avion

Very good MW. Thanks for your input/overview, that's more like it. While my 'investing' is measured in minutes I suspect you are the next Jim Rogers  Where are you based?


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> Hasn't retraced much yet, if it gets back up there again can't you just sweep through it for us all please?




China now under the mark where the PMI came out and heading to take out lows into the close.


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> China now under the mark where the PMI came out and heading to take out lows into the close.




Did you mean to say to take out the *high*? (of the day)

EDIT: Oops, you said China...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy just NO one is playing in the seng today. Just moving up on no volume........... 

This is one of those low volume breaks that just keep going.


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy just NO one is playing in the seng today. Just moving up on no volume...........
> 
> This is one of those low volume breaks that just keep going.




boy do i feel stupid for cutting those longs at brkeven cause of 'no vol' followthru


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> boy do i feel stupid for cutting those longs at brkeven cause of 'no vol' followthru




Yeah moves like that always leave you looking stuuupid. I got more ticks in the bank now than at the start of the arvo session but holy clap I've left the good part of a bond car to someone else.

My thoughts 1/2 hour into the arvo sess,





350 points later..... 

:millhouse


----------



## MARKETWINNER

avion said:


> Very good MW. Thanks for your input/overview, that's more like it. While my 'investing' is measured in minutes I suspect you are the next Jim Rogers  Where are you based?




Thanks Avion.

When I joined this forum I introduced myself in the Beginner's Lounge. I am based in New Zealand. I would like to visit Australia so that I can get some ideas.

Just like emerging world Australia and New Zealand too will have long term growth. 

We will discuss more in the future.


----------



## havaiana

haha Seng. Lull everyone into a false sense of security before the weekend and then...




SPI still holding really well this week, just as i post this it will probably pop


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> haha Seng.




Just LOL!



Why would anyone bother trading stocks?


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Just LOL!
> View attachment 53992
> 
> 
> Why would anyone bother trading stocks?




Wow

I gotta get some time to trade this!


----------



## boofis

IB's been doing some funky stuff lately but this tops the lot  lol


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> IB's been doing some funky stuff lately but this tops the lot  lol
> 
> View attachment 53993




Bars wrong colour?


----------



## boofis

Yeah, it's been full of glitches for me lately, going to do a wipe and reinstall this w/e. That's the first bullish down turn I think I've seen lol.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Bars wrong colour?




Shanghai style!


----------



## burglar

boofis said:


> Yeah, it's been full of glitches for me lately, going to do a wipe and reinstall this w/e. That's the first bullish down turn I think I've seen lol.




And all this time, I thought the colours were significant?


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Globally some stock markets, sectors, currencies, housing markets and commodities are over priced now. Definitely NZD and AUD are two of the overpriced currencies in the world. Even Australian and New Zealand stocks markets are somewhat overpriced now. Still over priced markets can go up due to crowd behavior and other factors. On other hand there are undervalued markets, sectors, currencies and commodities. It is time to identify and rotate stocks and commodities in next promising markets, commodities, and currencies.

Globally we had strong rally in some developed, emerging and frontier markets during last two years and what we are seeing now is market correction and pullback. We will see more volatility in markets in the coming weeks. 

For some falling currency is a boom for them. For example Indian textile, garment, tea and information technology sectors are going to benefit lot. They will have smile in their face. On the other hand their import oriented industries will hit hard.

There are market cycles, business cycles and industrial cycles. Who know our next attractive investment will have in our breakfast, lunch or dinner or may be in our next province? 

When markets are hot many will neglect under-appreciated assets and out of favour sectors. These types of assets and stocks’ will become next great winners.

In advance I expected gold and currency crisis. We are having some sort of currency crisis as well. These types of pull backs, correction, and crisis are part of market journey.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## minwa

That's what the colors are in Asia, red is for uptrend and green for downtrend. Maybe IB are adjusting to it.

I think red symbolises wealth(or good fortune) in Asia.


----------



## Trembling Hand

minwa said:


> That's what the colors are in Asia, red is for uptrend and green for downtrend. Maybe IB are adjusting to it.
> 
> I think red symbolises wealth(or good fortune) in Asia.




Nah its a fault. Some of the bars are correct some are not.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy i needed that to fix my crap morning!



	

		
			
		

		
	
  :bunny:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy i needed that to fix my crap morning!
> 
> View attachment 54064
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> :bunny:




That looks like a massive "WTF was wrong with us this morning" opening, or was there an actual reason?


----------



## CanOz

Love that lunch...


----------



## kid hustlr

See of red last night.

Volatility is back up!


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> See of red last night.
> 
> Volatility is back up!




Indices still right at their lows, barely a bounce in sight, hopefully will make for an interesting session in Asia

Shanghai Composite taking it like a boss


----------



## Trembling Hand

Not sure what the position limits on the HSI are but gee that sell dude must be getting close. Relentless Iceberg stuffing on the Ask.


----------



## boofis

Honestly, nice divergence on the lows but it's been a long grind up. Closed out once that pop above 540 was so short lived.


----------



## havaiana

Found this article interesting, 30 years monthly seasonal patterns for US stocks and some currency pairs

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/29/stocks-are-a-bad-bet-in-september-what-it-means-for-foreign-exchange/


----------



## boofis

Fading and Friday seem to go hand in hand :


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Fading and Friday seem to go hand in hand :




Yeah don't see many 15 minute bars like that!




WTF.....


----------



## CanOz

China Everbright Securities has gone into a trading halt...lol...i wonder what the news is...


----------



## CanOz

*Syria - Sentiment into the weekend*

I'm curious about the sentiment going in to the weekend, its the end of the month too and a long weekend in the US. I don't think anyone is going to be too committed going into it, long or short. Even though its highly unlikely the US or her allies will do anything with UN support this time. The US has said it won't act unilaterally already. The UK will not be participating without a UN resolution, which will not be forthcoming given Russia and China's veto powers...

So I'm still guessing that there may be a neutral to long bias, but not a short bias...

Anyone?


----------



## kid hustlr

*Re: Syria - Sentiment into the weekend*



CanOz said:


> I'm curious about the sentiment going in to the weekend, its the end of the month too and a long weekend in the US. I don't think anyone is going to be too committed going into it, long or short. Even though its highly unlikely the US or her allies will do anything with UN support this time. The US has said it won't act unilaterally already. The UK will not be participating without a UN resolution, which will not be forthcoming given Russia and China's veto powers...
> 
> So I'm still guessing that there may be a neutral to long bias, but not a short bias...
> 
> Anyone?




I'm unsure of the specifics in regards to the possible Syria attack but surely you wouldn't want to be long equities (or short bonds) going into the weekend?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Syria - Sentiment into the weekend*



kid hustlr said:


> I'm unsure of the specifics in regards to the possible Syria attack but surely you wouldn't want to be long equities (or short bonds) going into the weekend?




So you're thinking the safe bias is short to neutral?


----------



## kid hustlr

*Re: Syria - Sentiment into the weekend*



CanOz said:


> So you're thinking the safe bias is short to neutral?




Yeah I guess so, I mean everyone would be thinking the same thing, regardless of what actually will/wont happen and as far as Im concerned, I doubt many would be too keen being long equities over this weekend.

As an aside, I remember a couple of months back (end of may?) the SPI had some HUGE MOC orders to sell, it dumped the SPI like 40 points in the final 10 min of trading, was a pretty good indication of what was to come both in the euro/American session that night as well as the trend for the next month or so. Will be watching that closely this afternoon.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Syria - Sentiment into the weekend*



kid hustlr said:


> Will be watching that closely this afternoon.




yeah, me to...curious to see how most of Asia closes...


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> China Everbright Securities has gone into a trading halt...lol...i wonder what the news is...




They are due to announce that they DID NOT do a fat finger trade for the week.



CanOz said:


> So I'm still guessing that there may be a neutral to long bias, but not a short bias...
> 
> Anyone?




I don't think there will be a huge or lasting influence either way. The threat and uncertainty of war tend to bring market lower. Once war actually happens market may actually move up...


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> I don't think there will be a huge or lasting influence either way. The threat and uncertainty of war tend to bring market lower. Once war actually happens market *may actually move up*...




the old defense contractor rally hey....

From a personal POV, they should stay out of it...the farkin Saudi's need to do something for a change..

The US and her allies should stay the hell out of the Middle East. There's no reason to become involved in that region any more...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> I don't think there will be a huge or lasting influence either way. The threat and uncertainty of war tend to bring market lower. Once war actually happens market may actually move up...




Yep that is the "War Trade". Increased volatility with a downward bias leading into it with a rally on the report of the first cracker going off. 

Reminds me of my first account I blew up in Gulf War 2. Short the moment the news announced missiles hitting Baghdad. 30% of account gone by the end of the day, virtually all gone by week later.... haha they were days!!   :bazooka::freak3::shoot::bunny:


----------



## boofis

Asia not putting on much of a show for the arvo open :bad:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Reminds me of my first account I blew up in Gulf War 2. Short the moment the news announced missiles hitting Baghdad. 30% of account gone by the end of the day, virtually all gone by week later.... haha they were days!!   :bazooka::freak3::shoot::bunny:




Well in a sense you weren't wrong. The 2nd war on Iraq put a fair bit of debt on the US which probably led to the GFC (or something).

You just needed to stay solvent for another few years and you would have made millions.



CanOz said:


> The US and her allies should stay the hell out of the Middle East. There's no reason to become involved in that region any more...




Well such conflicts have been around for what, a thousand years? It's probably in the DNA of both sides to have a go at each other every so often.


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> Asia not putting on much of a show for the arvo open :bad:




 Came back from lunch and everything blew up, and up...


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> Came back from lunch and everything blew up, and up...




haha didn't even get 100 ticks out of it, psh!
SPI's enjoying a nice day in the clouds however.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> As to how much I made last month? here is the bottom line from my statement.
> ...................................Contracts traded........... P & L
> 
> 
> 
> LOL hey..... ya win some ya lose some




So a somewhat better month.


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> So a somewhat better month.
> 
> View attachment 54132




Contracts traded this month?


----------



## Trembling Hand

boofis said:


> Contracts traded this month?




About a thoudy less than last month.


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> About a thoudy less than last month.




Kudos, crushed it!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe we will see at least 10% correction in global stock markets. Next month is very crucial. There may be life time opportunities in some markets and sectors and commodities. Even now there are opportunities in stock, commodity, currency and bond markets. They are not dead. Markets, commodities, stocks, properties and currencies never go straight up and down and never stay the same. There are cycles such as business cycles, economic cycles and industrial cycles etc. Just like human beings these assets also have personalities.

Now some markets have come down due to panic situation and they have become more attractive. We should not forget USD was stagnated or went down against basket of currencies during last couple of years. Some wanted to dump the USD. Now it is one of the darlings in the market. Now USD has its day.

Similarly we will see bull trend for some currencies including emerging currencies when we see next cycle. It is time to study positive affects of tapering rather than taking it negatively. Markets, financial systems, interest rates, policies never stay the same. There were so many hiccups and crises in the global markets in the fast. Still markets rebounded strongly. Tapering is not the end of the world. Actually some areas in the global economy will benefit lot after this tapering. It is time to identify coming bull sectors globally in developed, emerging and frontier world. In short tapering will bring sustainable development. This is good for mid and long term developments in all types of assets markets. Sooner we see tapering it is better. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## Boggo

About three weeks old analysis but interesting and relevant.

Video link
http://www.mtpredictor.us/3046/wave-5-hit-now-what/


----------



## nysefloortrader

Some good analysis guys in here lately. 

Just my   2 cents. 

1) The US and the syria crisis is going to help the bears case the next few weeks I think. They can do more damage on the downside if they like. 

2) The tapering, or slowing down of QE is being priced in on the S&P on this drop, and while as in 1) I hinted the bears can do some more damage on the downside, I would NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH THE DOWNSIDE yet, we are still in a bull market. 

3) The next week with the US holiday, market tends to be very low volume so I would not expect to many violent moves. Infact as you read this, there are lots of SMART MONEY / FUND MANAGERS who take holidays and are not participating in the moves of the last several weeks. 

4) Q4 the smart money comes back, and normally like to put money to work into XMAS / The new year, and it is sometimes why you see healthly rallies into XMAS, sometimes called XMAS rally or santa clause rallys as cash is put to work, as the smart money returns. 

All In all, I think there is still a nice rally coming back to us on the S&P later in the year after this drop. It will catch many bears off guard, as people think the market is about crash. I think we are repeating  a pattern a few years ago, and we have not seen a major top yet. I think the bulls will be back soon, but not until we get more of a dip in SEPT 2013. 

Always good to remember Bottoms are an EVENT and TOPS are a process. But even if we drop down more on the S&P I would not be falling in love with the downside just yet. BS Tapering talks and Syria tensions are going help pricing in of tapering, and it could set itself up for MAJOR rally into the end of the year. Guess time will tell.


----------



## nysefloortrader

alot of traders will be looking at the JOBS report this friday to see what the fed is likely to do. 

However, remember right now, the FED has done nothing more than SPREAD rumors as to what is happening. Has any tapering actually been done, no, at this stage the market has been moving violently on just rumors. No action has actually been taken. 

For those that PM'ed and asked, we are still in a bull market. This image tells it all. And telling up that we are STILL in a BUY THE DIPS market. 







*So I think the DIP we are getting right now, is a dip that will continue, but will set up for a very NICE major buying opportunity maybe by the END OF SEPTEMBER 2013 or START OF OCTOBER 2013. *

Time will tell.


----------



## boofis

Sheesh, noone seems keen to play this arvo after a beautiful morning open. yawn.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe we are closer to end of current bull cycle for some markets. However there may be great opportunities in some sectors. I expect volatility and correction in the short run. In the mid term and long term almost all markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets including New Zealand market will have bull markets time to time. Even in secular bull market there may be so many short term bear markets, correction and pull backs.

We will see new bull currencies in the currency market.  Both AUD and NZD will continue their bear journey. There may be great demand for New Zealand milk and meat from all over the world in the coming decades.

Remember always there may be bull markets somewhere. Some commodities will have bull trend. It is time to identify next bull currencies, commodities, stocks and sectors. There are cycles for every type of assets. Tapering is not the end of world.

There are positive affect in tapering. Tapering may benefit exporters in Asia Pacific region. USA consumers may create more demand for product and services. There may be some support for commodity prices. Actually tapering will benefit the markets.

 I believe oil may come down below $100 in 2014. There may be short term spike in oil prices due to short term events. I don’t think anybody can predict market top and bottom 100% correctly.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## avion

Bet 50K to win or loose 27 million in 2 weeks on VIX, how about that apples...  

http://www.cboeoptionshub.com/2013/09/05/vix-spread-trade-still-pit-buzzing/


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Bet 50K to win or loose 27 million in 2 weeks on VIX, how about that apples...
> 
> http://www.cboeoptionshub.com/2013/09/05/vix-spread-trade-still-pit-buzzing/




W -T -F ???

Who would want to do this, someone hedging a large portfolio?


----------



## avion

Maybe it's someone betting on Syria strike or someone with inside information


----------



## havaiana

avion said:


> Maybe it's someone betting on Syria strike or someone with inside information




Maybe it's another everbright bot gone wild


----------



## boofis

Fade it Friday yet again offers up a couple pennies and still no runners ha. Thought we might see some range after watching the SPI and NK open but alas.


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> Fade it Friday yet again offers up a couple pennies and still no runners ha. Thought we might see some range after watching the SPI and NK open but alas.




The Kospi has been un-fade-able...


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> The Kospi has been un-fade-able...




Just looking at the chart there were at least 2 good fades for you this morn! :


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> Just looking at the chart there were at least 2 good fades for you this morn! :




When price is riding up outside the 2nd Std Dev of a VWAP i'm not thinking of fading...i'll leave that to those who can afford to average in with other peoples money


----------



## CanOz

Woo hoo, that kospi finally rolled, you bitch!


----------



## boofis

gah the pressure I wish this thing would crack short back to value, I need a weekend after this...oh  woo hoo.


----------



## CanOz

Wouldn't have wanted to try for a pull back on that opening range in Europe!!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe some food and energy based commodities will outperform others in the short run due to new development in currency market, tapering and crisis in Syria. 

As I expected currently pull backs, corrections and volatility is taking place in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontiers markets. We may see volatility in commodity, stock and currency markets in the short run. Even if Syrian crisis and tapering postpone until 2015 still markets will readjust while having pullbacks, correction and volatility. 

There may be life time opportunities in some sectors globally for intelligent investors including contrarian intelligent investors. This is the time to look for undervalued consumer staples globally in emerging, developed and frontier world.

During war period consumer staples and energy may do well. War is not good for consumer discretionary industries, airlines and finance etc.

Remember in good and bad times people have to eat and drink. Even during world wars some sectors will outperform others. If I am correct In Iceland during their financial crisis their fish industry did well. 

Time to come Middle East counties will have to import more food products from western and Asian countries in the future due to short supply. Even Asia will struggle to product some food due to their large population and lack of arable land. Remember these people need more coffee, tea, coco, sugar, nuts, oil, gas, Boeing planes, some tech products, potatoes, meat, egg, fish, health products and other services in the coming two decades. 

Events such as short term political crisis and tapering create great opportunities. Actually tapering is very good for some sectors. Development in developed world means more opportunities for emerging world and frontier world. More economic activities in emerging world and frontier world means more opportunities for European and American companies such as Boeing, general electrical and some food companies. Some food companies have advantage over others due to their ability to get raw material easily and due to competitiveness where others will struggle to get some raw materials in the coming decades.

Finally still stock markets, commodity markets and currency markets are not dead. We had two world wars, financial crisis, credit crisis, currency crisis and asset crisis etc in the past. Still we had some of the greatest bull markets all over the world. As I said before this is the time to identify next bullish markets, sectors, currencies, stocks commodities globally. We may find life time opportunities in emerging world, frontier world and developed world.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

China is once again coming through with some good news. The oldest of old players, Japan is also not bad. We cannot forget South Korea as well. These three players are some of the active economic players in the world.  We have got some source of stability. Frontier markets are in the initial stage of their economy and capital market developments. Some emerging markets and developed markets may have some volatility. Overall we may see gradual demand for some commodities. The trend has shifted in stock, commodity and currency market. Therefore new sectors, out of favour commodities, currencies and stocks including emerging stocks, currencies and commodities will lead markets in the coming years. Emerging markets will readjust again.

If we believe in stronger economic growth, then it is time to increase our exposure to the good commodity stocks.

As I said before I believe this is the time to identify the next most bullish markets, sectors, stocks, commodities and currencies before others. 

The current environment has opportunity. We can see the extremes of undervaluation for commodity stocks and some emerging markets now.

I think that the commodity stock rally is just getting started, and they should outperform the broader stock markets at least for some selected commodities including emerging commodities.

Some emerging market stocks trade at attractive valuations relative to developed market equities. Some Chinese Stocks And Commodity Stocks Are Bargains now.

Value orientated contrarian investors may identify cheap valuations in emerging and frontier world including Indian and Chinese equities and commodity stocks combined with extreme negative sentiment and improving fundamentals.

During last couple of days we saw lot of activities in emerging markets including Indian market. Among Asian developed market we saw lot of activities in South Korea. Tapering will benefit commodity producers in Asia. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...re-record-foreign-inflows-of-3-6-billion.html

South Korea Stocks Lure Record Foreign Inflows of $3.6 Billio

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## kid hustlr

Summers pulls the pin over the weekend and all of a sudden we have ourselves a MONDAY!


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Summers pulls the pin over the weekend and all of a sudden we have ourselves a MONDAY!




I didn't know the market was that upset about the potential of Summers...


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> I didn't know the market was that upset about the potential of Summers...




Either did I.

He was the most hawkish over the possible candidates to replace Ben so with out of the picture I guess we are back to free money!


----------



## captain black

Happy Holidays to any other Kospi traders out there. Nice to finish the week on a Tuesday 

:bier:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

captain black said:


> Happy Holidays to any other Kospi traders out there. Nice to finish the week on a Tuesday
> 
> :bier:




Noticed your dp, you trading on a linux machine? If so what are you using to do so? Pity it's not more developed for in the trading world, I love it


----------



## captain black

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Noticed your dp, you trading on a linux machine? If so what are you using to do so?




No, trading on a couple of Windows 7 machines. I use Interactive Brokers TWS and ZeroLine Trader which both have Linux versions that work well. Unfortunately I need Amibroker as well which only has a native Windows version. It mostly works in Wine but I haven't got it working well enough for day trading 




ThingyMajiggy said:


> Pity it's not more developed for in the trading world, I love it




Yeah, trading is the only thing I use Windows for. Everything else is done on Linux machines. Linux Mint with Cinnamon desktop is my favourite at the moment. One of the beauties of Linux, so much choice  (Not to mention very few worries with Malware, Viruses, Trojans etc.)

I started off with a Knoppix CD about 8-9 years ago after a friend pointed me in the right direction. I think I've tried every flavour distro available since then  Gotten used to the Debian/Ubuntu way of doing things and find Linux Mint does every thing I need (apart from trading unfortunately).


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

captain black said:


> No, trading on a couple of Windows 7 machines. I use Interactive Brokers TWS and ZeroLine Trader which both have Linux versions that work well. Unfortunately I need Amibroker as well which only has a native Windows version. It mostly works in Wine but I haven't got it working well enough for day trading
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, trading is the only thing I use Windows for. Everything else is done on Linux machines. Linux Mint with Cinnamon desktop is my favourite at the moment. One of the beauties of Linux, so much choice  (Not to mention very few worries with Malware, Viruses, Trojans etc.)
> 
> I started off with a Knoppix CD about 8-9 years ago after a friend pointed me in the right direction. I think I've tried every flavour distro available since then  Gotten used to the Debian/Ubuntu way of doing things and find Linux Mint does every thing I need (apart from trading unfortunately).




Yeah same, tried pretty much all of them and have ended up with Mint too, but stuck on windows for all the trading stuff


----------



## captain black

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah same, tried pretty much all of them and have ended up with Mint too




Yeh, Mint is great, everything just works out of the box. Using Mint with XBMC for my media centre as well although hoping to pick up a RaspberryPi soon to try out with OpenElec or Raspbian with XBMC.


----------



## notting

skc said:


> I didn't know the market was that upset about the potential of Summers...




It was interesting to see how it behaved as he is considered a taper fan a real market man.
The talk all over market land has been that the market has priced in tapering and that it is not really needed any more any way.
So it was interesting to see that that assumption on sentiment was not reflected in the Summers bow.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

captain black said:


> Yeh, Mint is great, everything just works out of the box. Using Mint with XBMC for my media centre as well although hoping to pick up a RaspberryPi soon to try out with OpenElec or Raspbian with XBMC.




Yeah I've got 2 Raspberry Pi's, I love them, got one set up as my media center with XBMC, its the best! Got the other to play with, was hoping to make one into a fully portable system, but just need the time to get it all together


----------



## captain black

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I've got 2 Raspberry Pi's, I love them, got one set up as my media center with XBMC, its the best!




Nice!
What OS are you using on the Pi? I've been told that OpenElec is quite snappy with XBMC.


----------



## skc

notting said:


> It was interesting to see how it behaved as he is considered a taper fan a real market man.
> The talk all over market land has been that the market has priced in tapering and that it is not really needed any more any way.
> So it was interesting to see that that assumption on sentiment was not reflected in the Summers bow.




I think the possibility of a strongish downturn after tapering starts is higher than most people like to think. It took a week or two after QE1 and QE2 finsihed for the market to fall... and like the debt ceiling talk a couple of years ago - everyone knew it was coming, yet the market still shaked quite violently afterwards.

Probably a good breather in response to the current strength anyway.



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I've got 2 Raspberry Pi's, I love them, got one set up as my media center with XBMC, its the best! Got the other to play with, was hoping to make one into a fully portable system, but just need the time to get it all together






captain black said:


> Nice!
> What OS are you using on the Pi? I've been told that OpenElec is quite snappy with XBMC.




Get a room, you two


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

captain black said:


> Nice!
> What OS are you using on the Pi? I've been told that OpenElec is quite snappy with XBMC.




Raspbian version of XBMC, runs pretty nice, it's fantastic with the extra programs you can download via wifi through the pi, and all works through the TV remote for user input too, pretty neat system, gotta love open source/linux 

haha skc, we can't now we're on a roll, the juices are flowing! Nah we'll shut up now.........crude is heading back up everyone!! There we go, back on topic


----------



## notting

skc said:


> I think the possibility of a strongish downturn after tapering starts is higher than most people like to think. It took a week or two after QE1 and QE2 finsihed for the market to fall... and like the debt ceiling talk a couple of years ago - everyone knew it was coming, yet the market still shaked quite violently afterwards.
> 
> Probably a good breather in response to the current strength anyway.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Get a room, you two




Awesome post

When you've run 600 billion worth of deficits added to a Trillion of QEs and achieved growth around 300 billion.  
Ya gotta be geten a little shaky with ya bluff and all those chips on the table.

Might be time to head for the Bar and ask for a short of DAX


----------



## captain black

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Raspbian version of XBMC, runs pretty nice, it's fantastic with the extra programs you can download via wifi through the pi, and all works through the TV remote for user input too, pretty neat system, gotta love open source/linux




Thanks for that, perhaps we need to start the ASF Traders LUG..lol 

- - - Updated - - -



skc said:


> Get a room, you two




lol, sorry SKC, the Kospi is closed for the rest of the week so I'm off to the beach for a holiday, no more Off-Topic posts


----------



## notting

The tension is palpable!!

(I know that's a very small post but even throughout the GFC I don't think there was so much focus on a single event before the fact.)
However markets say 'meh' and even the Ausi $ which is quite a good barometer of risk sentiments is hanging around even slightly positive.


----------



## PinguPingu

I get the feeling throught the minutes the Fed's been trying to beat the market over the head, so to speak, that the taper will come and it will come because of overall good reasons. If everyone knows its coming, more likely that its priced in - but no one really knows how all the 'rational decisions makers' will act


----------



## MARKETWINNER

This is the time to make some vital adjustments globally. Now is not the time to run and hide and it is time to take some bold action.

Actually tapering is good for some sectors globally. In addition different markets will benefits different sectors. For example emerging market and frontier markets including India will benefit their export sector and some commodity producers. Some Financial institutions in USA, Corporate Pension Funds, money market funds and some foreign markets etc should benefit from tapering. We need more study to identify clear winners in the market. Globally consumer staples sector may shine after tapering. I believe after tapering Money will flow back from gold, corn, soya bean and oil to other bull commodities and other bull stocks globally.  

Bull Sector hunting is a must now. We should avoid coming bear sectors, bear commodities and bear currencies and  should identify bull sectors, bull commodities and bull currencies before others. USD will shine strongly from 2015 onwards.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## avion

avion said:


> Bet 50K to win or loose 27 million in 2 weeks on VIX, how about that apples...
> 
> http://www.cboeoptionshub.com/2013/09/05/vix-spread-trade-still-pit-buzzing/




So the options expired worthless as i understand since VIX went nowhere...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> So the options expired worthless as i understand since VIX went nowhere...




Hopefully the vix went down....


----------



## boofis

sheesh, that's nearly 400 ticks up on yestys close  why won't it put that range in during trading hours ha!


----------



## skc

Very surprising, isn't it?!

So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?

The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Very surprising, isn't it?!
> 
> So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?
> 
> The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).




Even worse is now you have a full schedule of Fed jaw boning to get through....eg, Friday



> Speakers
> 12:30EDT/16:30GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George speaks on "The Federal Reserve and the Economy" before the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research Shadow Open Market Committee meeting
> 
> 12:40EDT/16:40GMT US Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo Speaks on Challenges in Global Financial Services (New Haven, Connecticut)
> 
> 12:55EDT/16:55GMT US Fed's Bullard Speaks on "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" before a New York Association for Business Economics Luncheon
> 
> 13:45EDT/17:45GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota gives academic talk at NYU Stern - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## boofis

skc said:


> Very surprising, isn't it?!
> 
> So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?
> 
> The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).




I really have very little understanding of how the taper is supposed, or actually going, to play out in real terms in the market. Just being wary, relatively tight ranges and low participation in my chosen markets.


----------



## notting

skc said:


> Very surprising, isn't it?!
> 
> So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?
> 
> The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).





*Two things.*

1.) the Fed has not moved from it's original statement about tapering schedule. Ben said employment 6.5%.  He reiterated that. This could take quite some time!


2.) He has consistently said there needs to be structural reform and responsible governance regarding the debt ceiling debates and so on which is now more polarized than ever.

We should not have been surprised.  (I got sucked in by all the TV experts too.)


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> I really have very little understanding of how the taper is supposed, or actually going, to play out in real terms in the market. Just being wary, relatively tight ranges and low participation in my chosen markets.




Low participation? I'd think so, the HSI is open but its mid-autumn festival in China...the Shanghai market is closed.


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> Low participation? I'd think so, the HSI is open but its mid-autumn festival in China...the Shanghai market is closed.




ha, yeah not just today. Have a look at how september opened (with a bang) then look at the daily ranges since the 5th.


----------



## CanOz

boofis said:


> ha, yeah not just today. Have a look at how september opened (with a bang) then look at the daily ranges since the 5th.




hmmm, good excuse to test out my Pats feed again...


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> After 2 weeks in India for work and only minimal trading access, I am back in the seat and looking at all the new highs on the indexes I track, and wondering how sustainable it is, then I look at breadth and it's telling me still not yet, we just aren't seeing the deterioration which we saw running into the flash crash or 2011 ugliness and definitely nothing like the insane breadth weakness running into the GFC. Even the Aussie market seems "healthy" in this respect, with indices retracing on resources pain, rather than pushing higher.
> 
> I also note some of my more predictive stuff (an example of which I posted not long ago in its own thread) concurs that these new highs aren't especially dangerous, with focus on various market fundamentals playing a much greater role than macro scare risk.
> 
> For long term stuff this is definitely not the place to be initiating new longs, but on the short term I would not fight the trend and look for little swings here and there as well as trying to capture those wonderful low volatility drifts when they come about.




Since I last checked in, cumulative NYSE breadth is certainly starting to look interesting compared to the NYSE broad ETF, third push without a new high...you can see it as weakness on the Summation Index, barely registering above 100!





NASDAQ cumulative breadth definitely a lot stronger, and again you can definitely see it reflected in the appropriate Summation Index.




Also interesting to note that most historically reliable valuation measures for the SP500 (CAPE, MV/GNP, Tobins Q, etc) seem to be in the top 5-10% most expensive of all available measurements and these expensive areas have always led to poor long term returns for investors and good opportunities for those with long volatility and value type strategies.

EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

sinner said:


> Since I last checked in, cumulative NYSE breadth is certainly starting to look interesting compared to the NYSE broad ETF, third push without a new high...you can see it as weakness on the Summation Index, barely registering above 100!
> 
> View attachment 54429
> 
> 
> NASDAQ cumulative breadth definitely a lot stronger, and again you can definitely see it reflected in the appropriate Summation Index.
> 
> View attachment 54430
> 
> 
> Also interesting to note that most historically reliable valuation measures for the SP500 (CAPE, MV/GNP, Tobins Q, etc) seem to be in the top 5-10% most expensive of all available measurements and these expensive areas have always led to poor long term returns for investors and good opportunities for those with long volatility and value type strategies.
> 
> EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.




What do those charts mean sinner? In lamens terms


----------



## sinner

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What do those charts mean sinner? In lamens terms




It's the 19,39,1 MACD of cumulative daily advance/decline. The number is "ratio adjusted" to ensure the number of stocks in the index doesn't affect the signal.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/kb/mcclellan_oscillator/


----------



## notting

Quote of the week.

You going to need to sit down to digest this.
It's extremely profound and gives gives a powerful insight into what direction you should take next.



> Babobank: Fed will taper sooner or later.




I can see why CNBC have flagged it in their "Investment Edge" window.
With an edge like that, you can be sure you'r ahead of the game.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.




Pretty happy with the way this worked out, declines across everything I track was all intraday.

My systemic risk indicator starting to flash a warning (not a sell yet) as well.


----------



## notting

I'm finding it quite amazing how quickly Greece has jumped back into the headlines as soon as the German elections are over.


----------



## notting

"The White House on Saturday said President Barack Obama would veto House Republican legislation that would delay much of the president's health-care overhaul for a year and cancel a tax on medical devices."
That's exactly what he should've done.
He was *voted* in with that agenda.
One for democracy and a display showing the system is not broken.


----------



## havaiana

Currencies acting a bit funny this morning, AUD has been thinner than usual but volume traded pretty good so far, reckon we could get some volatility today

On another note, how people in a democratic country can let Berlusconi happen, i don't know...


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Currencies acting a bit funny this morning, AUD has been thinner than usual but volume traded pretty good so far, reckon we could get some volatility today
> 
> On another note, how people in a democratic country can let Berlusconi happen, i don't know...




We've opened "out of value" with gap down on some markets, this is usually a good sign for a volatile or trend day (not always)...


----------



## notting

I think were are going to need a black swan on top of the shut down to really get a bit of action.  Unless the shut down itself shows up some ugly crack.
Most are still focusing on fundamentals of individual companies.
Not enough selling yet.


----------



## skc

30 minutes countdown to shutdown.



notting said:


> I think were are going to need a black swan on top of the shut down to really get a bit of action.  Unless the shut down itself shows up some ugly crack.
> Most are still focusing on fundamentals of individual companies.
> Not enough selling yet.




Yes... if the market over react to the shutdown then there will perhaps be an opportunity for a quick bounce trade.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/30/us-shutdown-explainer-non-americans



What is the shutdown all about?

In a word, money. The US financial year ends at midnight on Monday. Under US law a new bill to approve funding for the next financial year is required, which must have been approved by the House of Representatives, and the Senate, and the president. This has yet to happen.

Why not?

In two words, politics and Obamacare. The core problem is that the Republican party controls the lower house, or House of Representatives, while the Democrats control the Senate.

Republicans have been pushing for the budget to include cuts to Barack Obama's healthcare bill. Key parts of the Affordable Care Act kick in on Tuesday, so this is a last-ditch attempt to thwart the legislation.

Early on Sunday morning, the House approved legislation that would delay the act by a year. The Senate has refused to meet to discuss it. It's deadlock.

Would the shutdown mean the entire US government grinds to a halt?

No, it's not an anarchist's (or libertarian's?) dream. Essential services, such as social security and Medicare payments, would continue.

The US army would keep operating, even if pay packets are suspended. But hundreds of thousands of workers at non-essential services, from Pentagon employees to rangers in national parks, would be told to take an unpaid holiday (full breakdown here).

This sounds unprecedented. Is it?

Nope. The US government has shut down 17 times since 1977. However, it has not happened for 17 years, since the historic face-off between Bill Clinton and the Republican-controlled House halted services for 28 days in 1996.

Why doesn't it happen in other countries?

The shutdown situation is a product of the US democratic system. The president is both head of state and head of the federal government, without a guaranteed majority in either of the legislative bodies where new laws are debated and voted upon (because presidents, congressmen and women and senators are elected separately). The president can't simply ram laws through Capitol Hill.

In Britain, for example, tax and spending policies are outlined in the budget, presented to parliament by the chancellor of the exchequer. These changes are brought into law in a finance bill in the House of Commons. That's in effect a confidence vote in the government, and even the most fractious backbench MP would balk at rebelling on it.

Finance bills are also one area where the elected House of Commons has the upper hand over the unelected House of Lords. The Lords have no power to reject a money bill; they can only delay it for a month.

How does the US shutdown row tie in with the debt ceiling battle?

They are separate issues.

The shutdown battle is about approving future spending. The debt ceiling is another problem facing Washington – America has a legal limit on its borrowing of $16.7tn dollars, and it's likely to hit that point in mid-October.

If a deal isn't reached, then America would run out of borrowing room, meaning the world's biggest economy would default on its debts. Both problems need solving – and a shutdown would eat into valuable time to fix the debt ceiling.

Why can't they just raise the debt ceiling?

It's up to the House of Representatives and the Senate. And you will never guess what the Republicans want in return (yup, cuts to Obamacare).

Is the shutdown going to cause a stock market crash?

Investors are certainly worried. A short shutdown of a few days probably wouldn't have much impact on the US, but if it dragged on then the row could quickly hit economic growth.

Moody's, the rating agency, calculates that a two-week shutdown would cut 0.3% off US GDP, while a month-long outage would knock a whole 1.4% off growth.

Stock markets are down on Monday because of the risk of a US government shutdown and the danger that the Italian government may collapse. It's not a panic. Yet.

How could the Shutdown deadline be broken

Congress could pass a new "clean" funding plan, which didn't include a delay to the Affordable Healthcare Act. Or the Senate and the White House could accept such a delay. Or a compromise between the two positions could be finessed.


----------



## CanOz

Some cool stats here....


----------



## Boggo

Carolyn Borodens' take on it at the moment...
http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/public/SPparameters1022013.cfm


----------



## CanOz

Boggo said:


> Carolyn Borodens' take on it at the moment...
> http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/public/SPparameters1022013.cfm




Thanks for that Boggo, i agree...I tend to think that last nights rally was mostly short covering...but we'll see...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe we may see strong rally in few more stocks markets just like Dubai, Japan and Philippine sooner than later. Dubai’s stock index climbed to the highest in almost five years. I heard even Jim Rogers is bullish on frontier markets such as North Korea and Myanmar.

In Thailand 10-year government bonds had a rally as foreigners increased holdings. After big selloff, Indian stock market rebounded strongly. There may be few more hidden markets.

As I said before it is time to identify next most bullish markets, sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies and other assets before others.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, currency or any other asset. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## havaiana

Buy risk today?

"US Senate majority leader Reid says he and republican  McConnell have made “tremendous progress” towards debt limit,  government funding deal, but “we are not there yet”

As far as i can understand meetings are postponed until 11am (US eastern time), but an agreement is looking closer


----------



## CanOz

To me, these types of conditions are difficult to trade but the overnight prices need to be taken in context....think about anyone who went home short...

They're trapped now and any little push higher should see them want to cover quickly...so I'd be careful fading at the highs today...

In addition there could be new longs today as the news rolls out about a possible resolution.

As it is now, we have a very narrow opening range, how likely is it that it will remain narrow through the whole day?


----------



## havaiana

Things getting a little crazy, there is a rumour about the bill every few minutes. Very jumpy, I want in, but am standing aside for the moment because I'm too scared

I want to get something on in anticipation of the deal going through, but it seems everyone is/has already jumped on that wagon, just doesn't feel right. Deal goes through nearly everyone already has position banking on it, deal doesn't go through and.... :bad:


----------



## CanOz

Good volume on the NQ tonight...

[video=youtube_share;9O4AfHmHVo0]http://youtu.be/9O4AfHmHVo0[/video]


----------



## CanOz

Classic double distribution on the DAX last session. You can clearly see by the volume that the market has set value higher, rejecting price in between. 

The lower value area typically gets revisited sooner rather than later. At the moment we only have references under the market, and very few above, other than 8900 and 9000.

I would be happy to see more volume in today's session.


----------



## notting

Maybe just wishful thinking but the market reaction has been pretty muted and gold hasn't tanked.
Suppose it was priced in and Fed may delay tapering due to less confidence less growth scenario.
So boring.


----------



## CanOz

I sort of have the feeling its priced in as well...

Anyway, my feelings are usually wrong....

I'll let todays activity tell me the story when Europe opens...


----------



## havaiana

notting said:


> ...Suppose it was priced in and Fed may delay tapering due to less confidence less growth scenario.
> So boring.




I reckon you'll be exactly right with this.

It's crazy how early and fast the market started to price it in. Imagine what would have happened if one of them threw a hissy fit at the last minute and the deal didn't go through, could have been chaos

I wrote something about this the other day, the market is so inclined to price in things so early these days that the only time anything happens is when the very unexpected hits. Or maybe it's always been like that and i just hadn't noticed.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> I reckon you'll be exactly right with this.
> 
> It's crazy how early and fast the market started to price it in. Imagine what would have happened if one of them threw a hissy fit at the last minute and the deal didn't go through, could have been chaos
> 
> I wrote something about this the other day, the market is so inclined to price in things so early these days that the only time anything happens is when the very unexpected hits. Or maybe it's always been like that and i just hadn't noticed.




there has been some articles around about this particular event being priced in earlier and earlier each time they do it. The premise of the articles was that the market is getting used to this concept of last minute "on the brink" types of behavior by the politicians so its getting better at having the faith that they will do the right thing and kick the can at the least.

One of these days though, as you say, we will have a black swan type event when the totally expected and anticipated event doesn't happen as expected....

FWIW, the S&P internals are not looking too healthy...but thats could have been in anticipation of this event as well so we need to see these improve...Otherwise we could be in for a proper correction. 

In terms of my only market that i trade live, the DAX, it could fall 200 points without much trouble. I would expect a bracket after that though. In the meantime its really onwards and upwards until we see some cracks appear. After all we are at all time highs.


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> t...
> 
> FWIW, the S&P internals are not looking too healthy...but thats could have been in anticipation of this event as well so we need to see these improve...Otherwise we could be in for a proper correction.
> 
> In terms of my only market that i trade live, the DAX, it could fall 200 points without much trouble. I would expect a bracket after that though. In the meantime its really onwards and upwards until we see some cracks appear. After all we are at all time highs.




I'm getting the same feeling with AUD. I have been pretty bullish as I think we are approaching the end of the interest rate cutting cycle and I think it's being priced in and then obviously the uncertainty is finished with the US. But now it seems to be struggling to make any more ground. I can't imagine what other good news can come out that can help it now (edit, maybe China GDP tomorrow!)

It feels like we need at least some sort of retracement before it can keep on carving up like it has been. It's also interesting that the high AUD might influence the chances of another cut. We know the RBA want the AUD lower and the only way to do it is more cuts. If it's already rising so much now, imagine where it could get to if the RBA turns more hawkish, damned if they do, damned if they don't


----------



## CanOz

Maybe it needs to break down so it can rally (i don't even know what the chart looks like). Sometime you see markets get too long or too short and they need to clear out the weak hands before they can carry on, if you know what i mean?


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> ...
> In terms of my only market that i trade live, the DAX, it could fall 200 points without much trouble...




Nice call, really hope you're on it!


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Nice call, really hope you're on it!




No, as a matter of fact I've been thoroughly reemed out trying to fade half of my levels, ignoring the fact that the index was one time framing it down...

Gold and Bonds bolted, so i should have known something was up...


----------



## CanOz

Funny how the FTSE is not taking it as bad now...yet the DAX and FESX are, last week the FTSE always seemed overdone....


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> No, as a matter of fact I've been thoroughly reemed out trying to fade half of my levels, ignoring the fact that the index was one time framing it down...
> 
> Gold and Bonds bolted, so i should have known something was up...




I got reemed on YEN, had been having such a good day before that too


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> I got reemed on YEN, had been having such a good day before that too




Me too, i was up nicely on the day, didn't expect that sell off at all...

Bloody markets, here to drive us completely crazy it seems.


----------



## CanOz

I've had this NinjaTrader indicator for a while now and not had much time to play with it until last week. Its called Pace of Tape and it measures the speed that the orders are hitting the market. It s quite handy as you'll see. There are lots of uses for it and the alerts that it produces. I changed my alert file to something a little less annoying though.

oh, its FREE.

Cheers,


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I'm wondering if someone could help me with SPI data from 2005 to present.  Just after daily bars.  TIA.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm wondering if someone could help me with SPI data from 2005 to present.  Just after daily bars.  TIA.





Shouldn't you be saying what format?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Shouldn't you be saying what format?




Day and night if possible, continuous rollover.  Not sure how that works with daily bars.  Do they get compressed into one 24 hr day?


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Day and night if possible, continuous rollover.  Not sure how that works with daily bars.  Do they get compressed into one 24 hr day?




But what format? comma separated value? Metastock? 

I don't have have much and what i do have is from Premium data, in Metastock format. 

I don't even think i can identify it in my files.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> But what format? comma separated value? Metastock?
> 
> I don't have have much and what i do have is from Premium data, in Metastock format.
> 
> I don't even think i can identify it in my files.




Metastock format is fine.  Most formats I can probably sort in a spreadsheet before importing if necessary.

Anything you have would be appreciated.  Thanks Can.

Don't spend time searching if it's difficult.  I can always ask on another forum.


----------



## CanOz

Sent you a PM GB...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Dow may break even 16,000 and S & P 500 1800 respectively during next six months depend on some factors. Still we may see bull markets in some sectors, commodities and some markets in 2014. In some point there may be correction in DOW. As I said before we may have opportunities in developed, emerging and frontier markets. We have to do home work to identify future bullish markets, sectors, commodities and currencies before others.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Korean's Won has some strength today. Yen down against all its major peers. Japanese shares up more than 1%.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## havaiana

Text of Yellen speech. Good to get some action so early for a change!

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/11/13/yellen-full-text-of-speech-out-now/

Missed getting a fill to fade on AUD by 2 bloody ticks


----------



## kid hustlr

one of these days ill get on one of these ****ing moves


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> one of these days ill get on one of these ****ing moves




Not again.....

PERSISTENCE. underrated quality.
You will nail one soon.


----------



## kid hustlr

Ah this was a different type of trading. US notes going through the roof I should have just bought on open and gone for a beer. not usually how I trade the bonds though so its hard to just sack and go balls to the wall.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Dow may break 16,000 and S & P 500 1800 respectively again. Up to August 2013 among frontier markets countries such as Pakistan, Bulgaria, UAE and GHANA had some of the strongest uptrend. During period of speculation on tapering not only emerging markets including India had big sold off in their currencies and stocks but also in some other markets. This situation made opportunity for intelligent players.  Later emerging markets including India rebounded strongly. If I am correct while $2.1 billion exited emerging market funds between January and mid-August, frontier market funds saw inflows of $1.5 billion in the same period. If we study Frontier markets they are very much focused on internal demand other than some export such as food  items including  Tea, garments, fruits  and spicy  products  and tourism. Globally some markets are topping up now.

Lists of frontier markets to watch are:

Trinidad and Tobago
Romania
Sri-Lanka
Bangladesh 
Qatar
Pakistan
Argentina
Ghana
UAE
Kenya
Bulgaria

Which frontier markets, currencies, commodities and sectors will have strong uptrend next?

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## havaiana

Not sure what the equities volume is looking like, but some decent business being done in the currencies from europe open


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Not sure what the equities volume is looking like, but some decent business being done in the currencies from europe open




Choppy and nasty...back in yesterdays value area. Slow agreeable trade at this stage...

Edit: wow...what a pop


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Choppy and nasty...back in yesterdays value area. Slow agreeable trade at this stage...
> 
> Edit: wow...what a pop




Currencies haven't moved much yet and volume slowed now, but I suspect they'll make a move soon. If equities keep going up USD/JPY will take off the roof I reckon. Someone soaked up a heap of contracts under the asian lows

Edit: or not!


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> wow...what a pop




Now a pop on the opposite side!


----------



## havaiana

Gold struggling, fat finger or just a heap of stops? over 7000 contracts hit the bid in the futures

edit for chart


----------



## Joules MM1

there was a lift last week in Commercials buying but the institutionals still out-weigh them on sells side.....nothing like a flush to get the retail buy-buy-buy become bye bye bye





holding sells in this 

http://www.dailyfx.com/devisenhande...el/2013/11/20/ND_Retail-Position_EURUSD_.html
XAU / USD - The ratio of long and short positions in the XAU / USD is trading at 1.82. 65% of traders are long positions. Yesterday, the ratio was 2.03, and the retail traders were positioned at 67% Long. Open long positions fell by 0.5% compared to the previous day and are 6.4% below the level of last week. Open short positions rose by 10.8% compared to the previous day and are 8.0% higher than last week. Open interest is 3.2% compared to the previous day and noted increased 3.8% over the monthly average. The SSI is a counter-indicator and the majority long position indicates a bearish trend. The retail traders reduced their net long position in comparison to the previous day and compared to last week. The combination between the current sentiment and the last position change results in a neutral trading trend.


----------



## havaiana

I don't trade gold but have it as one of my background charts, jeez it hit quick. I imagine there will be a few of those 500:1 margin retail brokers having a few of their clients accounts in negative balances after that (unless they gave generous fills of stops, either way will cost them a bit)



Joules MM1 said:


> ...holding sells in this ...




I saw in the other thread, nice trade, looks like christmas will be good for your friends and fam!

1250 looking very close


----------



## Joules MM1

havaiana said:


> I don't trade gold but have it as one of my background charts, jeez it hit quick. I imagine there will be a few of those 500:1 margin!




ouch .....true ......i read a lot of "i bet the house on it" posts this week.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Since its trendy (yet wrong!) to be bearish this anit good,




S&P500 making new highs and the 52 week new highs (yellow bars and 20 day avg blue line) very much lagging and even looks to have rolled over.


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> ... S&P500 making new highs and the 52 week new highs ....




Just in case I'm not the only slow one that didn't understand and had to look it up:

NNYH = total issues of index hitting new highs


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ha! Now that is a gap close!!


----------



## cynic

That FTSEing DAX just FTSEed me over again!

Another 3,000 FTSEing Euros down the gurgler!

FTSE it!  FTSE it!  FTSE it!

FTSE the FTSEing DAX!

That DAX is one FTSEing mean motherFTSEing  son of a bourse!!!


----------



## Joules MM1

u.s. exchanges closed tomorrow

core durables at 12.30am release

http://www.nyx.com/holidays-and-hours/nyse
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php


----------



## Joules MM1

twooter



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy 5m
> 
> II bears lowest since April 1987


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Definitely financials and technological stocks are over valued now. Even in technology stocks in frontier and emerging world are over valued now. We may see correction in technology stocks sooner than later. We should avoid overvalued markets, sectors, commodities, currencies and other assets and it is time to go behind undervalued out of favour sectors, stocks, commodities, and currencies. For example some commodity stocks are cheaper than commodities now. Both NZD and AUD are over valued now. We may see sell off in stocks during next six months. In short we can see some bubble in few sectors. 

I believe we may see some sell-off in overvalued markets sooner than later.

I will take the funds from selling some shares and redeploy them into the new stocks I have researched and written about.

In any market be it developed, emerging or frontier market we need seasonal adjustments to our portfolios. I believe this is the time to readjust portfolios, do some rotation and identity next winners in the commodity, stock and currency markets globally. Globally some markets, sectors, commodities and currencies are under valued. Similarly some markets, some sectors, commodities and currencies are over valued.

We may have correction in some overvalued markets during next six months. It is time to identify next winners.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## Trembling Hand

MARKETWINNER said:


> In any market be it developed, emerging or frontier market we need seasonal adjustments to our portfolios. I believe this is the time to readjust portfolios, do some rotation and identity next winners in the commodity, stock and currency markets globally. Globally some markets, sectors, commodities and currencies are under valued. Similarly some markets, some sectors, commodities and currencies are over valued.
> 
> We may have correction in some overvalued markets during next six months. It is time to identify next winners.




So your contribution would be similar to this,


----------



## avion

Wild ride on HSI!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yep, China is on a runner too!


----------



## kid hustlr

It is F*&%ing incredible how often I manage to sum up a situation perfectly and not make money


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> It is F*&%ing incredible how often I manage to sum up a situation perfectly and not make money




I find thats the problem I have when I trade and wait for chart setups rather than trading ideas.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> I find thats the problem I have when I trade and wait for chart setups rather than trading ideas.




if this was FTSE fair call but this was in the bonds, different kettle of fish


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> It is F*&%ing incredible how often I manage to sum up a situation perfectly and not make money




edit: TH beat me to it and said it a lot less words than me

Not making assumptions about how you trade, but I had this problem for a while. It was mainly due to searching for setups too specific before trading my idea or to put it another way, getting stuck with the fallacy of A+ setups.

How I solved this was to scale in with an entry not too far from the mean and the second one further, so if it is unlikely to take off without me, and if it moves too much the opposite way to my idea at least my average price isn't too bad.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> if this was FTSE fair call but this was in the bonds, different kettle of fish




Are you saying you use fewer chart patterns on the bonds and more "ideas" involving context?


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> Not making assumptions about how you trade, but I had this problem for a while. It was mainly due to searching for setups too specific before trading my idea or to put it another way, getting stuck with the fallacy of A+ setups.
> 
> How I solved this was to scale in with an entry not too far from the mean and the second one further, so if it is unlikely to take off without me, and if it moves too much the opposite way to my idea at least my average price isn't too bad.




see below.



kid hustlr said:


> if this was FTSE fair call but this was in the bonds, different kettle of fish




rough gig this!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> rough gig this!




Yes! yes it is..... 

٩(๏̯͡๏)۶


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Are you saying you use fewer chart patterns on the bonds and more "ideas" involving context?




short answer yes with an if long answer no with a but.

Hard to explain and I'm to annoyed to bother but I just didn't make money when I should have.


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> if this was FTSE fair call but this was in the bonds, different kettle of fish





Are you trading them outright or spreading?

I reckon bonds suck for trading outright, particularly Aussie bonds 

You're either flipping for ticks, but there is too much competition in trading them that way which is why there is the tiny range forever than straight line to next tiny range area as every man and his dog flipping races to cover.
Or dying a slow death trying to trade breakouts


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> Are you trading them outright or spreading?
> 
> jobbing around the curve in the main, I guess you call it spreading? we lean against the curve a lot but theres also the 10s10s the bills etc, a lot of what Sommi spoke about in his thread but probably a shorter time frame (at least for now for me)
> 
> I reckon bonds suck for trading outright, particularly Aussie bonds
> 
> I agree in the main
> 
> You're either flipping for ticks,
> 
> true
> 
> but there is too much competition in trading them that way which is why there is the tiny range forever than straight line to next tiny range area as every man and his dog flipping races to cover.
> 
> also true, doesn't mean that's not an opportunity in itself. DUCY?
> 
> Or dying a slow death trying to trade breakouts
> 
> As discussed in the futures thread I've come to the conclusion that break out trades aren't ideal for futures, doesn't mean they don't exist but its not as simple as buying the 52 week high!!




RED


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> I find thats the problem I have when I trade and wait for chart setups *rather than trading ideas*.




An example could be time when the market is due for a short covering rally?


----------



## avion

CanOz said:


> An example could be time when the market is due for a short covering rally?




Can, i think today is prime example, today ideas won, chart setups lost...


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, one of the "patterns" i used to watch for is a little difficult to describe....say the market has sold off hard like it has for a couple of days...then the market gaps down like today and every little dip lower gets covered with shorts taking profit....The market just can't seem to break lower and has this feeling of being "too short" to drop any further, its almost like its needs to rally a bit. That's when to look for a long opportunity. I mentioned it before, a few times i think. The opposite is true too when the market gets "too long"...


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Since its trendy (yet wrong!) to be bearish this anit good,
> 
> View attachment 55459
> 
> 
> S&P500 making new highs and the 52 week new highs (yellow bars and 20 day avg blue line) very much lagging and even looks to have rolled over.




Nice indicator TH...


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> also true, doesn't mean that's not an opportunity in itself. DUCY?




Not really, I still don't see how that makes them good to trade outright. because they still need to breakout enough and far enough to cover all the fakeouts. In saying that, I'm sure there are people who can trade them outright just fine.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> I find thats the problem I have when I trade and wait for chart setups rather than trading ideas.




I don't know about you but charts give me an indication that something is about to happen or happening before its crystalizes on the screen.


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> Not really, I still don't see how that makes them good to trade outright. because they still need to breakout enough and far enough to cover all the fakeouts. In saying that, I'm sure there are people who can trade them outright just fine.




Yeah I mean opportunity in every market.

except gold because the central banks control them


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> except gold because the central banks control them




ohh no...


----------



## avion

tech/a said:


> I don't know about you but charts give me an indication that something is about to happen or happening before its crystalizes on the screen.




Agreed Tech, on most days charting works well (otherwise how do you trade...) but on odd days may as well toss the coin unless you have an 'idea' what's going on.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> An example could be time when the market is due for a short covering rally?




I'm talking about that little man that always giving you an excuse why you shouldn't do something, Shouldn't enter, shouldn't hang on for more etc because there is a possibility you may be wrong!

For example here is my day,




1.	Pre-open. What are these jokers up to? 200 point gap?! I’m going in long and strong on the open.
2.	Perfect, in here
3.	I’m a farking genius!!
4.	That should of popped : (
5.	Fark… scratch and reverse. This looks now like a gap and run open. $$'s to be made here!
6.	Haven’t got much volume here…. Grr!!
7.	Suck it up sook and get more. (Little man in head “******** there is no logical stop here it could whip back against you and it’s the start of ANOTHER crap day”)
8.	Piss off little man I want more of this we have a runner…..I add to short (Little man “I’ll be saying I told you so soon”)
9.	Ha! See comment 3 little man!! (Little man “You are an idiot, we are 300 points down and your adding to shorts, Man its way over sold!!”)
10.	Look at the P&L. I do have a lot and that’s a nice 8 minutes work.
11.	OK I’m feeling sick now, I have tunnel vision and if he is right and it whips back I’ll be scrabbling. 
12.	Start taking some off.
13.	Whoa here comes the whip back I’m in trouble! (Little man "HA i told you so")
14.	Close close close, here here and here. Very nice start. (｡♥‿♥｡)
15.	Ok next trade, 
16.	Lets think about getting long,
17.	Faaark!! I missed 100 points. That’s a stop sweep. Get in long man, get in long & hard (little man “wait to the higher low; it will come”)
18.	Fark its running!!!! (little man “wait wait wait for the set up)
19.	(Little man “patience, you know its abou……) Oh will you pissoff!!
20.	Rest of the rise I play chew and spew!!


----------



## CanOz

lol...brilliant! Well narrated.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm talking about that little man that always giving you an excuse why you shouldn't do something, Shouldn't enter, shouldn't hang on for more etc because there is a possibility you may be wrong!
> 
> For example here is my day,
> View attachment 55681
> 
> 
> 1.	Pre-open. What are these jokers up to? 200 point gap?! I’m going in long and strong on the open.
> 2.	Perfect, in here
> 3.	I’m a farking genius!!
> 4.	That should of popped : (
> 5.	Fark… scratch and reverse. This looks now like a gap and run open. $$'s to be made here!
> 6.	Haven’t got much volume here…. Grr!!
> 7.	Suck it up sook and get more. (Little man in head “******** there is no logical stop here it could whip back against you and it’s the start of ANOTHER crap day”)
> 8.	Piss off little man I want more of this we have a runner…..I add to short (Little man “I’ll be saying I told you so soon”)
> 9.	Ha! See comment 3 little man!! (Little man “You are an idiot, we are 300 points down and your adding to shorts, Man its way over sold!!”)
> 10.	Look at the P&L. I do have a lot and that’s a nice 8 minutes work.
> 11.	OK I’m feeling sick now, I have tunnel vision and if he is right and it whips back I’ll be scrabbling.
> 12.	Start taking some off.
> 13.	Whoa here comes the whip back I’m in trouble! (Little man "HA i told you so")
> 14.	Close close close, here here and here. Very nice start. (｡♥‿♥｡)
> 15.	Ok next trade,
> 16.	Lets think about getting long,
> 17.	Faaark!! I missed 100 points. That’s a stop sweep. Get in long man, get in long & hard (little man “wait to the higher low; it will come”)
> 18.	Fark its running!!!! (little man “wait wait wait for the set up)
> 19.	(Little man “patience, you know its abou……) Oh will you pissoff!!
> 20.	Rest of the rise I play chew and spew!!




Post of the year!


----------



## avion

Hahaha, classic TH, thanks, you are giving a lot here... all the while i was thinking your 'idea' was a predetermined test of some low only guys like you can see.

On the other hand i was almost opposite thinking it will be down day, only to get chewed up on that rise...


----------



## tech/a

Great post love it.

But man am I glad I'm not in your head!!

But in all seriousness as you point out your trading the little man.
The stop sweep you were right on top of and were looking for a better setup.

I often get caught when I see a move that has flown just as I sit at the computer.
I will at times play it and set the stop to B/E as soon as practical---Did that a few nights ago on the FTSE.

But agree entirely.
I shut my little man off by leaving the screen.


----------



## CanOz

TH, you just using your chart as a reference at a glance...occasionally right? Your entire focus is on the TT DOM and time and sales...or just the DOM?


----------



## avion

Does it look like him:


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> ohh no...




I was joking...



skc said:


> Post of the year!




agreed.

TH, did you get long and hold (ie. whats chew and spew)?

That's an incredible stop sweep by the way


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> But in all seriousness as you point out your trading the little man.
> The stop sweep you were right on top of and were looking for a better setup.



It gets a bit gnarly as that was right on Cash open. Not uncommon for some really nasty nasty business to be done there. I usually have no problems jumping on but alas was too soft!!



CanOz said:


> TH, you just using your chart as a reference at a glance...occasionally right? Your entire focus is on the TT DOM and time and sales...or just the DOM?




T&S hasn't anything in it on the HSI (that I can see outside of the DOM) I spend most of the time looking at the DOM but thats not to say thats where everything is. Like I have been saying Trade idea> Chart pattern/setup as management of idea> DOM for execution and feedback (similar to techs supply/demand he gets from charts vol) 



avion said:


> Does it look like him:



 No he is much uglier nasty rank little man!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> TH, did you get long and hold (ie. whats chew and spew)?




Chew and spew?!!Ha get a position exit it 20 -30 ticks higher then take the same position again sometimes lower than last exit but mostly higher than you last got out. So you start thinking damn! I should of held I bet its about to reverse if I do hold so spew it up>wait>Chew at it again a little higher spew it out> repeat!!

Basically bad trading. : /



kid hustlr said:


> That's an incredible stop sweep by the way




Only 110 points in 40 seconds!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nothing doing on the Seng today!!! NO volume.


----------



## avion

Yep, giving up...

Few times i did that only to find it exploded an hour later, huh...


----------



## avion

avion said:


> Yep, giving up...
> 
> Few times i did that only to find it exploded an hour later, huh...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee someone had some business to do on the open!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL and they were not finished.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL and they were not finished.




Was juuuust about to say the same thing!


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Was juuuust about to say the same thing!




That looks like a global attack from hedgies.... BIG ones. Nk, Kospi,Taiwan, China!! Everything and especially the Seng have BIG sell programs.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh and as usual the SPI is just farting around!  Why would you bother I guess!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> That looks like a global attack from hedgies.... BIG ones. Nk, Kospi,Taiwan, China!! Everything and especially the Seng have BIG sell programs.




No news?


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> No news?




Not really, just a repeat of the same old song... tapering, blah, blah, blah...

More of a technical sell off.


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> More of a technical sell off.




What is that?


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> What is that?




Obviously just something in my head... :


----------



## avion

C'mon TH, what are the chances of retracement up half way (to that congestion...)? Yes, no? Depending on Europe?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> C'mon TH, what are the chances of retracement up half way (to that congestion...)? Yes, no? Depending on Europe?




Will be luck if we don't finish at zero at this rate!


----------



## avion

As Kanye would say: YEEZUS!!!


----------



## avion

Here is my profit for the day:




On a day likes this!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Who says you cannot pick tops!


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Who says you cannot pick tops!
> 
> View attachment 55809






Was that 23035 your entry and 22993 your stop!?! 160 points profit!?


----------



## havaiana

avion said:


> Was that 23035 your entry and 22993 your stop!?! 160 points profit!?




23195 was the entry!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Actually I was getting in long from 20380 and higher but all out at 23195 ... literally perfect  The Horizontal lines are open high low.

Quite the day on the Seng. Been reading like a book..... a comic book.


----------



## avion

Sheesh, ofcourse... been busy reading it like a cup of coffee:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Interested to see what the likes of TH and tech/a do (if anything) on the weekend or when the market is closed, prepare for the week ahead by checking weekly supp/res? see what data is coming out during the coming week? Review your trades from the previous week? Maybe nothing? Longneck and watch the cricket?


----------



## tech/a

I don't do a lot.
Being purely a technical pattern trader
Currently only trading the FTSE and on 
Occasion the DAX on an irregular basis.

I don't trade for a living --- nor do I want to.

One of the reasons I trade as I do.
Don't have the time.

If I was trading stock I'd b systems trading.
Again --- time---- best for me.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> I don't do a lot.
> Being purely a technical pattern trader
> Currently only trading the FTSE and on
> Occasion the DAX on an irregular basis.
> 
> I don't trade for a living --- nor do I want to.
> 
> One of the reasons I trade as I do.
> Don't have the time.
> 
> If I was trading stock I'd b systems trading.
> Again --- time---- best for me.




No time around christmas for the old duck to have a trade by the sounds? Thanks for sharing, interesting to know  I always like to do something towards my trading when I have "spare" time, usually I play back market replay at 10x speed and trade like a man possessed


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Interested to see what the likes of TH and tech/a do (if anything) on the weekend or when the market is closed, prepare for the week ahead by checking weekly supp/res? see what data is coming out during the coming week? Review your trades from the previous week? Maybe nothing? Longneck and watch the cricket?




I Close this DOM on the Friday Arvo 



And move onto this DOM for the weekend,.


----------



## kid hustlr

How bout that sweep in the Mini!

Wooshga


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> How bout that sweep in the Mini!  Wooshga  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=55838"/>




What's going on?

I'm checking the FTSE and that fell from 6450 to 6401 reasonable quickly!


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> What's going on?
> 
> I'm checking the FTSE and that fell from 6450 to 6401 reasonable quickly!




No idea what it could be, big stop, algo gone wrong, someone knows something, all the classics. Every now and then on a Monday morning the FTSE gets stop hunted but I don't usually see one that big on the mini. Nikkei been heavy all day today fwiw


----------



## kid hustlr

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-15/sp-futures-nikkei-slide-large-block-trade


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks. 

I guess we will see in a few hours of the market responds


----------



## Trembling Hand

Very similar coordinated attach during Asia like last Wednesday. The Nikkei futs were actually the lagger in that move.

just to add Monday gap opens on the Euro and US markets have a woeful record of carrying on in the same direction. But when the do watch out.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> And move onto this DOM for the weekend,.
> 
> View attachment 55837




I would suggest only 1 contract at a time on that "Index" TH .......  if you take a little heat on the retrace ....... grin and bear it:  

What are ya gona do if she "breaks out"   .... You don't normally go for breakouts


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> I would suggest only 1 contract at a time on that "Index" TH .......  if you take a little heat on the retrace ....... grin and bear it:




Yes its an expensive index to position size!



barney said:


> What are ya gona do if she "breaks out"   .... You don't normally go for breakouts




One must adapt to the market one wants to trade.........


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes its an expensive index to position size!
> 
> 
> 
> One must adapt to the market one wants to trade.........





LOL .... I just hope your Risk Manager is keeping a close eye on you  .... Wouldn't want to see you get into Margin Call territory by over leveraging into such a thin market


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> LOL .... I just hope your Risk Manager is keeping a close eye on you  .... Wouldn't want to see you get into Margin Call territory by over leveraging into such a thin market




Hahah very thin market my friend..... :blover:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Just like riding a bike!!...........or just getting lucky, nice ride on the DAX


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Hahah very thin market my friend..... :blover:




 .... Indeed!

Do I sense romance in the air TH  ..... If so good on ya .... Nothing like a good lady to make sense of the universe

Just for the record, I say that with hindsight as I have a wonderful lady already (just in case she reads all this


PS. Nice trade Sam ....... The Monday 1/2% drop into last weeks lows on low volume after last weeks Down week looked ripe ..... Hindsight for me though, so no value in that


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Just like riding a bike!!...........or just getting lucky, nice ride on the DAX
> 
> View attachment 55840




Nice Sam but which arrow is which?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Nice Sam but which arrow is which?




Arrows underneath(blue) are getting long and arrows above(pink) are getting short(or exiting in my case).


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Arrows underneath(blue) are getting long and arrows above(pink) are getting short(or exiting in my case).




Yeh see that
But in the middle they seem to 
Give both buy and sell signals on the on bar.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Yeh see that
> But in the middle they seem to
> Give both buy and sell signals on the on bar.




That was just a bit of scalping, then I slapped myself and went for the longer trade option again


----------



## avion

Great trade Sam, especially in savage DAX. You managed to hung in there...


----------



## Trembling Hand

What extraordinary action on the Seng yesterday. Did anyone trade it? I played most of the gap fill then took the day off thinking it would just flop around or drift back up towards the open. When I got back I couldn't believe it had ran another 400 friggin points down and blown support to bits!!   




Was a nice day on the bay though


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> What extraordinary action on the Seng yesterday. Did anyone trade it? I played most of the gap fill then took the day off thinking it would just flop around or drift back up towards the open. When I got back I couldn't believe it had ran another 400 friggin points down and blown support to bits!!
> 
> View attachment 55888
> 
> Was a nice day on the bay though



What's this ?!!

Do you really expect us to believe that you weren't the orchestrator of that plunge?

Could it be that there's another trembler in the works?

Personally I prefer to avail myself of the DAX for my daily dosage of self flagellation.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> What extraordinary action on the Seng yesterday. Did anyone trade it? I played most of the gap fill then took the day off thinking it would just flop around or drift back up towards the open. When I got back I couldn't believe it had ran another 400 friggin points down and blown support to bits!!




Well I didn't trade it and I regreted looking at it all afternoon, thinking that it will drag the ASX down with it. It didn't and I wasted all my beautifully positioned longs opened early in the morning.



Trembling Hand said:


> Was a nice day on the bay though




You can't win them all  My mind is no longer on the market either so it can go another 500 pts and I wouldn't know it.


----------



## avion

After the fed announcement and subsequent rally in US was expecting positive day. Played fade and lost, gave up. Was amazed but that's your HSI, always serving surprises one way or another. Apparently something to do with a spike in short term interest rates in China when rest of the world was pointing up not to mention technical support, even the chart looked like it wanted to rally. What a lesson. You can never be prepared enough it will do complete opposite.  Grrrrrr...@#$%^&*


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy oh Boy its not much diff today. I, for once... wish it would slow down so I could walk away and have a :alcohol: or 10


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy oh Boy its not much diff today. I, for once... wish it would slow down so I could walk away and have a :alcohol: or 10




Nah, you can't do that. If you do it will jump 300+ points, guaranteed! Besides i thought you switched to Dom and more sophisticated company on weekends  or are Fridays reserved for mates and biers...


----------



## barney

avion said:


> Besides i thought you switched to Dom and more sophisticated company on weekends  ..





Yeah, exactly ..... I bet the nice day on the Bay included more than just looking at the seagulls:


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> or are Fridays reserved for mates and biers...




Thats how they start anyway....


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I have written more about tapering before. Without studying coming opportunities markets players including some analysts globally in all types of markets spent lot of time on tapering. Tapering will benefit some industries in all types of economies. Even some commodity companies will benefit. There will be some upside for USD in 2014. 2015 will be year of the dollar. Because some over valued currencies may tumble against USD in 2015 when we see next currency cycle. We may see some volatility in 2014. Currencies such as NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now. Yesterday not only US market other markets including few frontier markets under my radar also went up. Despite tapering or not we may see shift in markets, commodities, currencies sooner than later. This is the time to rotate stocks, commodities, markets, sectors and identify next great opportunities in global markets. We may see bull markets in some countries even in 2014 and 2015.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

DOW, S&P 500, S&P/ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 will touch 16500, 1850, 5400 and 16300 sooner that later. 

If markets develop into bubble scenario we may have another financial crisis worst than 2007. As you can guess, a “melt-up” could lead to a “melt-down,” as happened in the past. There may be some volatility in 2014 still global stocks will give higher return for those who did home work. Asian and European stocks did not perform well when compare with U.S. stocks in 2013, with the notable exception of Japan. It is time to identify next winning markets, sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies and other assets globally. We may have correction in overvalued stock markets in 2014. Long term players may have another opportunity in 2014 and 2015. Bull will continue in undervalued global stocks markets in 2014. Remember intelligent investors will identify opportunities in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. They outperformed others in all types of markets in 2013. They will do it in 2014 as well. In the currency market USD will outperform other currencies such as NZD and AUD in 2014 and 2015. More than USA stocks USD dollar is damp cheap now. In commodity market Gold, corn and soya bean will go down further in 2014.

Tapering is good for Asian export companies. For example yesterday Toyota, the world’s biggest car maker, appreciated 3.3 percent in Tokyo. Most commodities will still do well such as meat, milk, iron ore etc as the world economy improves.

The big debate among some market players is whether international markets will have bull market in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013...onia-at-a-outlook-stabl-idUSFit68025120131212

Fitch Affirms Estonia at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/12/24/hello-2014-ems-still-have-room-to-boom/#!

Hello 2014: EMs still have room to boom

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## CanOz

Getting some really weird stuff happening on my IB/NT HSI charts today, spikes down 60 points on the chart but not the DOM....


----------



## CanOz

Kospi getting beat around like a red headed step child...:silly:


----------



## MARKETWINNER

So far both Thai and Korean markets are down by more than 2% and Frontier markets such as Pakistan, Sri-Lanka, Indonesia and Philippines are up strongly. Nikkei225, Sensex and Hong Kong markets are also up. 

http://www.firstpost.com/economy/no...ging-markets-may-rebound-in-2014-1319007.html

No more ‘fragile’: India and other emerging markets may rebound in 2014

http://lk.duinvest.com/portal/LKCSE...85598&goToHomePageParam=true&siteLanguage=en#!

Sri Lanka stocks gain amid record capital raisings in 2013

http://tribune.com.pk/story/653599/pakistan-stock-market-not-really-a-gambling-den/#!

Pakistan stock market: Not really a gambling den

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Global markets are down. Some markets such as Nikkei225, New Zealand 50 gross index and Karachi KSE100 are up.  Both Vietnam VN-index and Sri-Lanka All share index are flat. So far European stocks are little changed and it is look like they are going to have their day today. In the commodity market gold, Sliver, copper and zinc are up. Very interesting. Is this something to worry about? 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Canadian stock market came down on Friday. Hong Kong stock market slumped more than 2%. Not a good day for energy sector especially for oil. Cattle futures rose. It was nice day for Gold and sliver. Ag markets mixed on Friday morning. Some markets, sectors stocks and commodities are resilient globally.  It could be different picture next week. Have a great week!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## avion

Wowza on HSI! R u trading this TH, anyone...?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Wowza on HSI! R u trading this TH, anyone...?




Yes. its only January and I'm sitting in front of a friggin computer.


----------



## tech/a

Could be worse.

No clients
No phones
No employees
No compliance
No overheads

Could be better

-----you know Janurary in Japan.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes. its only January and I'm sitting in front of a friggin computer.




Sounds like you love what you do lol


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Sounds like you love what you do lol




Not that much.......  :


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Not that much.......  :




Why keep going if you're not enjoying it? Surely you've got enough to hike/sail/fly/parachute the world without a worry with all your skillz and time doing this   :


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Why keep going if you're not enjoying it? Surely you've got enough to hike/sail/fly/parachute the world without a worry with all your skillz and time doing this   :




Stacked my bike a few weeks ago...... sitting up in the sick bay instead of the Hokkaidō powder.....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Stacked my bike a few weeks ago...... sitting up in the sick bay instead of the Hokkaidō powder.....




Struth TH, must have been quite a 'stack'


----------



## barney

CanOz said:


> Struth TH, must have been quite a 'stack'




Tell the truth TH  ... you were just showing off to those "Dom Girls" again


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Struth TH, must have been quite a 'stack'




Dislocated shoulder! Makes it hard to go back country powder puffin..... 



barney said:


> Tell the truth TH  ... you were just showing off to those "Dom Girls" again




They don't look like DOM girls they look like KFC girls....... :


----------



## McLovin

Trembling Hand said:


> They don't look like DOM girls they look like KFC girls....... :




That's not an ar$e, this is an ar$e...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/a...t-doors-says-hopes-inspire-larger-ladies.html


----------



## skc

McLovin said:


> That's not an ar$e, this is an ar$e...
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/a...t-doors-says-hopes-inspire-larger-ladies.html




Why did I click on that link   

Anyhow... shorting the SPI as a positional play for the next few weeks.

Feels like something's brewing in China.. not sure it'd amount to anything but the iron ore companies have been shot first.


----------



## Trembling Hand

McLovin said:


> That's not an ar$e, this is an ar$e...
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/a...t-doors-says-hopes-inspire-larger-ladies.html




'My bottom is 7ft wide and I'm proud of it!' LOL!  errrrrrr




skc said:


> Why did I click on that link
> 
> Anyhow... shorting the SPI as a positional play for the next few weeks.
> 
> Feels like something's brewing in China.. not sure it'd amount to anything but the iron ore companies have been shot first.




Yep 2014 ya picked the theme I reckon... Forget the tapper.... watch the black swan hit the fan in China.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> They don't look like DOM girls they look like KFC girls....... :




Lol  ..... That's just plain cruel !! .... 

I think the KFC girl's older sister was watching your "style" from behind the scenes ..... Pity you had to be carted off to Hospital


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ok since I've had a day of floating in the bay and getting somewhat lubricated :alcohol: I've been lazily thinking about this years markets,

US all good internally.... Bears continually calling for the end of this madness and still being wrong. :

Euro slight amount of trouble (outside Germany) and a slow slide into deflationary troubles....

ASX stock traders looking for longer term momentum will again be disappointed :horse:

:fan Will be China's credit problems.... bad debts... shadow banking... Credit squeeze... etc

Gold cracks recent significant lows and heads to $1000 area (this could be soon).

Currencies, AUD smash-a-rama (hopeful I'm very short via an exotic ), JPY wins the race to zero.

Most likely trade will be huge increase in volatility why I'm on long hols, April-May & July-August (just so if I'm right I'll miss it all )

Outside trade... real long shot..... Blues for the flag... And Richie Porte & Cadel Evans go 1,2 in the Giro.


----------



## kid hustlr

TH,

with all the concerns about China (as you mentioned above) are you concerned at all about the Yuan getting creamed and having your trading profits eroded? From memory I thought you said you keep all your profits in Yuan?

NB: I know nothing about the Yuan (Do they peg it to the USD?) nor your trading!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> TH,
> 
> with all the concerns about China (as you mentioned above) are you concerned at all about the Yuan getting creamed and having your trading profits eroded? From memory I thought you said you keep all your profits in Yuan?
> 
> NB: I know nothing about the Yuan (Do they peg it to the USD?) nor your trading!




Its kinda liked to the US, see here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi#Value. And the Yuan normally refers to their old money. Current currency is the Renminbi

And my profits are in Honker $'s. Which are linked to the USD. So its likely to go up significantly if they run into trouble.


----------



## kid hustlr

jeez they don't make it easy do they.

Either way sounds like you are ok and quietly hoping for a disaster (and a fat year..)


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Most likely trade will be huge increase in volatility why I'm on long hols, April-May & July-August (just so if I'm right I'll miss it all )




I am going to be away around late April/early May as well... so that HAS to be when the volatility starts.


----------



## baby_swallow

Looks like the Wall Street boyz are back from their holidays...errr... vacation!.
I didn't expect such price action occurring this early in the new year.
I have a gut feeling that this is a precursor to an action packed 2014.
My strategy is to stay nibble...taking profits as they occur


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Anyhow... shorting the SPI as a positional play for the next few weeks.
> 
> Feels like something's brewing in China.. not sure it'd amount to anything but the iron ore companies have been shot first.





Still Short?


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Still Short?




Stopped out about 140 ticks ago... it went 2 ticks above my stop  

And I took money out of IB as I need to settle on a property in a couple of weeks... so I don't even have enough cash in there to re-open 

P.S. Had one of my busiest days trading pairs... a new record in terms of open exposure. But today's P&L was 0.00000016% of that exposure. Now you can't get more delta neutral than that!


----------



## tech/a

skc said:


> Stopped out about 140 ticks ago... it went 2 ticks above my stop
> 
> And I took money out of IB as I need to settle on a property in a couple of weeks... so I don't even have enough cash in there to re-open
> 
> P.S. Had one of my busiest days trading pairs... a new record in terms of open exposure. But today's P&L was 0.00000016% of that exposure. Now you can't get more delta neutral than that!




That's a real bugger.
I really thought you still had that!
I was lambasting myself for not doing the 
Same thing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Stopped out about 140 ticks ago... it went 2 ticks above my stop
> 
> And I took money out of IB as I need to settle on a property in a couple of weeks... so I don't even have enough cash in there to re-open
> 
> P.S. Had one of my busiest days trading pairs... a new record in terms of open exposure. But today's P&L was 0.00000016% of that exposure. Now you can't get more delta neutral than that!




 yep of course, always the way . I too have had a record day.... of red!!!.... (only for the year though )

Go ask the boss for some futs limits......


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> That's a real bugger.
> I really thought you still had that!
> I was lambasting myself for not doing the
> Same thing.




Hopefully there'd be a bounce in the next day or two. I'd take another shot at it if I can sell some stock to free up the capital, albeit with less favourable RR. 



Trembling Hand said:


> Go ask the boss for some futs limits......




Nah. I trade so small and so infrequently there's barely enough to pay for the data/platform fees. It is most rare that I don't have enough cash in my IB account to trade even 1 contract. Plus my pairs limit just got doubled so I am going to have my hands full just trying to fill that.



Trembling Hand said:


> yep of course, always the way . I too have had a record day.... of red!!!.... (only for the year though )




Record day in red... Those days really help build your character! I had 3 of those in December alone... but that came after 15 days of straight green so I knew I had it coming.


----------



## havaiana

TH

What do you reckon the maximum spread would need to be to be able to profitably trade the Seng actively/intraday through a CFD assuming no commission (if it would be possible at all)?


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> TH
> 
> What do you reckon the maximum spread would need to be to be able to profitably trade the Seng actively/intraday through a CFD assuming no commission (if it would be possible at all)?




HA funny you should ask.. Was talking about the HSI CFD with a friend on the weekend. Once upon a time back when there used to be Unicorns in the fields and $100 bills laying in the gutters the spreads were 2 points. Someone managed to turn $1000 into 50g in a week. 

but alas.... the world is much nastier now and I think its 12 points. Pretty much removes any chance of anything but position trading. But you could always trade the Mini HSI fut (MHI) which is only $1000 AUD margin or even mini HHI which is only $500 AUD.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Hopefully there'd be a bounce in the next day or two. I'd take another shot at it if I can sell some stock to free up the capital, albeit with less favourable RR.




Well... we are now back to the level 2 days ago. But taking a short here would be quite aggressive. High so far today printed at 5264... may be I will wait for a lower high.


----------



## kid hustlr

craziness across the aussie curve today!. yesterday everything went bid on the sh*thouse u/e figure. today we've continued to go bid but there's big orders flying everwhere. I just pulled my bid as they lifted an offer I have no idea whats going on??!!

big boys are back in town!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> craziness across the aussie curve today!. yesterday everything went bid on the sh*thouse u/e figure. today we've continued to go bid but there's big orders flying everwhere. I just pulled my bid as they lifted an offer I have no idea whats going on??!!
> 
> big boys are back in town!




 They will be doing something and the good thing is they cannot hide it. Jump there is a ride to be had somewhere!


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> craziness across the aussie curve today!. yesterday everything went bid on the sh*thouse u/e figure. today we've continued to go bid but there's big orders flying everwhere. I just pulled my bid as they lifted an offer I have no idea whats going on??!!
> 
> big boys are back in town!




Setting longs.
Id be surprised if the west or the 
world doesn't resume  long tonight
at best.
Range around again at worst.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> They will be doing something and the good thing is they cannot hide it. Jump there is a ride to be had somewhere!




Lately I've had a really good 'feel' (market context!!!!) as to what's going on but today its just been completely out the door.

I'm pretty sure there's either a couple of big boys repositioning after the number yesterday (shorts covering?) and there's a few guys taking profits in there as well.

Feels likes on the back end of our curve they are TRYING to sell it and they hold it down hold it down then something like yesterday happens and they scramble, cover and then try to build again. It's like they are thinking 'well rates are low and can't get much lower so the bonds have to be a sell' but then you get the random triggers + data points which keep hurting them. I think I agree with them in that long term rates are on the up but trying to time it in the market is next to impossible.

remind's me of the aussie, Stevens was jawboning that thing for months and couldn't push it down, you just couldn't sell it, then finally it cracks and now im sitting here going man why did I sell the aussie 9 months ago it was soooo obvious..


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Setting longs.
> Id be surprised if the west or the
> world doesn't resume  long tonight
> at best.
> Range around again at worst.




talking bonds not stocks tech

but I do agree with u on that front to!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Lately I've had a really good 'feel' (market context!!!!) as to what's going on but today its just been completely out the door.
> 
> I'm pretty sure there's either a couple of big boys repositioning after the number yesterday (shorts covering?) and there's a few guys taking profits in there as well.
> 
> Feels likes on the back end of our curve they are TRYING to sell it and they hold it down hold it down then something like yesterday happens and they scramble, cover and then try to build again. It's like they are thinking 'well rates are low and can't get much lower so the bonds have to be a sell' but then you get the random triggers + data points which keep hurting them. I think I agree with them in that long term rates are on the up but trying to time it in the market is next to impossible.
> 
> remind's me of the aussie, Stevens was jawboning that thing for months and couldn't push it down, you just couldn't sell it, then finally it cracks and now im sitting here going man why did I sell the aussie 9 months ago it was soooo obvious..




Yeah looks like a game changer to me. Break-outs but Curve - yeah holding so far.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah looks like a game changer to me. Break-outs but Curve - yeah holding so far.




Maybe that fella over in Singapore is just back from holidays and is squeezing everyone out


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah looks like a game changer to me. Break-outs but Curve - yeah holding so far.




agree short term im definitely playing the long side.

NFI on the curve.


----------



## kid hustlr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Maybe that fella over in Singapore is just back from holidays and is squeezing everyone out




I don't care how big K and his mates are he can't control the back end of the curve, the bill spreads maybe but out in XT land there's plenty of guys having a say.


----------



## CanOz

Did we just get some news? The Kospi just broke out of a two day balance and a six day uptrend...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> I don't care how big K and his mates are he can't control the back end of the curve, the bill spreads maybe but out in XT land there's plenty of guys having a say.




I know, wasn't being serious


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> NFI on the curve.




You just summed up perfectly my skill level on such matters.......


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Did we just get some news? The Kospi just broke out of a two day balance and a six day uptrend...




No idea but on the Seng all the offering is being taken and won't follow...... interesting......


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> No idea but on the Seng all the offering is being taken and won't follow...... interesting......




Yeah, someone likes though lower prices...i wonder if they'll bail if it gets pushed down to the lows again...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yeah, someone likes though lower prices...i wonder if they'll bail if it gets pushed down to the lows again...




nah back at 922 before the next 5 min is out.....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> nah back at 922 before the next 5 min is out.....




Its struggling either way...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Its struggling either way...




22910........ 

That ill do.....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> 22910........
> 
> That ill do.....




Messy ole day on the Seng...again...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Messy ole day on the Seng...again...




You were saying what?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> You were saying what?




Wow....i knew it would happen...'cos i left and went for a peddle


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Wow....i knew it would happen...'cos i left and went for a peddle




Gee I should trust my Fibonacci/MACD/Stochastic Absorption Indicator more often......


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee I should trust my Fibonacci/MACD/Stochastic Absorption Indicator more often......




You mean this one?



> No idea but on the Seng all the offering is being taken and won't follow...... interesting......




I like it, can we code it?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yeah already have,





You like?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah already have,
> 
> View attachment 56355
> 
> 
> You like?




ROTF....

I think price is on that chart somewhere...


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL even for the Seng this is a nutz-o day.....


----------



## CanOz

From a normal Friday to an outstanding one...i was thinking before i went for my ride that you'd be at the pub by the time i came back...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> From a normal Friday to an outstanding one...i was thinking before i went for my ride that you'd be at the pub by the time i came back...




After today I could buy the pub..... :alcohol:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> After today I could buy the pub..... :alcohol:




lol...well done...can you get the first round then?


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> After today I could buy the pub..... :alcohol:




Free drinks on TH for all members! :alcohol:

Had my busiest week in volume terms... made something like 2.6bps in profit.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Free drinks on TH for all members! :alcohol:
> 
> Had my busiest week in volume terms... made something like 2.6bps in profit.




Oh cool change is that you??? 

Ok stuff the last hour I'm stepping across the road for a dip in the crystal clear waters of Port Phillip 

Then my shout at the Pier Hotel.... C ya there


----------



## >Apocalypto<

kid hustlr said:


> Lately I've had a really good 'feel' (market context!!!!) as to what's going on but today its just been completely out the door.
> 
> I'm pretty sure there's either a couple of big boys repositioning after the number yesterday (shorts covering?) and there's a few guys taking profits in there as well.
> 
> Feels likes on the back end of our curve they are TRYING to sell it and they hold it down hold it down then something like yesterday happens and they scramble, cover and then try to build again. It's like they are thinking 'well rates are low and can't get much lower so the bonds have to be a sell' but then you get the random triggers + data points which keep hurting them. I think I agree with them in that long term rates are on the up but trying to time it in the market is next to impossible.
> 
> remind's me of the aussie, Stevens was jawboning that thing for months and couldn't push it down, you just couldn't sell it, then finally it cracks and now im sitting here going man why did I sell the aussie 9 months ago it was soooo obvious..




don't try to work out why KidH just roll with the flow....

check out the 1 hour GBPJPY i was short... then that happened... i have no idea why.. (news maybe) but now all i am thinking is if it holds high at bars close i will be going long.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Among Asia pacific market Pakistan, Sri-Lanka and Vietnam had strong up trend during last six days exception is Sri-Lanka had a minor correction on Friday. Both Mongolia and Hong Kong market were also up on Friday. Very interesting. In Europe markets such as UK, Germany, and Austria were resilient on Friday.  Estonia and Iceland markets did well. Ghana had a very good day on Friday. Not a good day for S&P 500. This situation could change during next week. Both USD and Gold up. I believe Intermediate trend for stock markets could be different from one area to another area. In other words some markets could have strong up trend and some markets could have some sort of correction or volatility.  Despite some setback in global stocks markets some individual stocks maintained their uptrend. Some of the top winners on Friday were Visa Inc, American Express, Admiral Group, Glencore Xstrata, LXS: GR, Mitsubishi Motors, Fujikura Ltd, Korea Green paper, Don Won Fisheries, DIL:NZ and GMT:NZ

In the meantime Ireland’s credit rating was restored to investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service since the debt crisis erupted in 2009. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) is also going to withdraw from participating in setting gold and silver benchmarks in London. It is following Investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley on cutting back in some commodities. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Well someone wants the seng to break 23000....before we fly back up lol


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Anyone else get the 180 tick candle on the open for the seng??


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Anyone else get the 180 tick candle on the open for the seng??




Yep that was legit!!


----------



## avion

Blink of a eye...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep that was legit!!




Any ideas what that was all about?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Any ideas what that was all about?




Yeah a 1000 lot sweep.  

and this,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-speculation-central-bank-will-add-funds.html


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah a 1000 lot sweep.
> 
> and this,
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-speculation-central-bank-will-add-funds.html




Thought about putting in a bid in the open but decided against it 
I was under the impression it was well known already since the first article came out at 3am!




> PBOC Adds Cash to Banks as Money Rates Jump Most in Seven Months
> 2014-01-20 16:01:00.2 GMT
> 
> 
> By Bloomberg News
> Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank pumped funds
> into the financial system and expanded a lending facility to
> include smaller banks as rising cash demand before the Lunar New
> Year drove money-market rates up by the most in seven months.
> The People’s Bank of China supplied money to the largest
> commercial banks using its Standing Lending Facility and will
> auction reverse-repurchase agreements today, it said yesterday
> on an official microblog without giving details of the amounts
> involved.
> Small- and medium-sized banks in 10 regions will be able to
> tap the SLF for loans of up to two weeks on a trial basis,
> according to a statement published on the PBOC’s website. The
> funds can be tapped when money rates breach certain thresholds,
> a separate document showed. A 120 billion yuan ($19.8 billion)
> quota has been set aside for the trial, according to two traders
> familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as the
> information is confidential.
> “It’s a good move in terms of liquidity management,” said
> Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
> The expansion of the PBOC’s lending facility will also make the
> market “fairer” for smaller banks, she said.
> The benchmark seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of
> interbank funding availability, jumped 153 basis points
> yesterday to 6.32 percent, according to a daily fixing compiled
> by the National Interbank Funding Center. That was the biggest
> increase since June 20 and the highest level since Dec. 23. The
> week-long Lunar New Year holiday starts Jan. 31 and is a period
> in which cash gifts are made and families get together for
> celebratory feasts.
> 
> Rate Thresholds
> 
> Smaller lenders can seek funding before the holiday via the
> SLF trial when the seven-day repo rate exceeds 7 percent,
> according to a document signed by the monetary authority’s
> Guangzhou branch and obtained by Bloomberg News. Other
> thresholds are for the overnight repo rate to breach 5 percent
> and the 14-day to climb above 8 percent. Local branches of the
> PBOC will supply cash at those rates, the document said.
> The overnight repo rate increased 93 basis points, or 0.93
> percentage point, to 3.78 percent yesterday and the 14-day rate
> dropped 47 basis points to 5.53 percent, separate fixings show.
> China’s interest-rate swaps extended declines late
> yesterday after details of the central bank’s measures were
> reported. A one-year contract that exchanges fixed payments for
> the floating seven-day repo rate, fell 13 basis points to 5.02
> percent in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
> 
> Beijing, Shenzhen
> 
> The PBOC will conduct the SLF trials in the cities of
> Beijing and Shenzhen, as well as Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong,
> Hebei, Shanxi, Zhejiang, Jilin and Henan provinces, according to
> the statement on its website.
> “It’s correct to target the smaller banks as they are the
> ones that always face cash shortages before the Lunar New
> Year,” said Tse Kwok Leung, the Hong Kong-based head of policy
> and economic research at Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. “That
> is helping ease market concerns over liquidity and hence the
> swaps decline. The facility is more effective than injections
> via reverse repos, which usually guide funds toward the major
> banks.”
> The PBOC gauged demand yesterday for 21-day reverse repos
> at auctions to be held this week, as well as its regular
> offering of seven- and 14-day agreements, said two traders at
> primary dealers who bid at the auctions. It also assessed demand
> for 28-day repurchase contracts and 91-day bills, they said.
> 
> For Related News and Information:
> China’s Economy Grew 7.7% in Fourth Quarter, Topping Estimates
> NSN MZOFY96KLVRD <GO>
> Cash Crunch Seen Complicated as Money Funds Double: China Credit
> NSN MZJL6Q6S973J <GO>
> China Money Rate Surges on Cash Demand Amid Trust-Product Risks
> NSN MZJHEQ6K50YP <GO>
> China bond stories: TNI CHINA BON <GO>
> PBOC OMO amount: PBOCNET <INDEX> HCP W <GO>
> China money-market rates: BTMM CH <GO>
> China’s government auction calendar: ECO20 CHINA <GO>
> 
> --Helen Sun, with assistance from Fion Li in Hong Kong and Xin
> Zhou in Beijing. Editors: James Regan, John Liu
> 
> To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
> Helen Sun in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-3029 or
> hsun30@bloomberg.net
> 
> To contact the editor responsible for this story:
> James Regan at +852-2977-6620 or
> jregan19@bloomberg.net


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

When's rollover? It sure has died in the ar$e since the open


----------



## avion

After 22 trips i think i had enough:

Grand total profit:


----------



## kid hustlr

F&*%ing hard day today in the bonds and I finally do something right for a change and my system crashes and I still don't make any money asfjkasdhlfkjashdfljkasd


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> F&*%ing hard day today in the bonds and I finally do something right for a change and my system crashes and I still don't make any money asfjkasdhlfkjashdfljkasd




What do you actually do with the bonds? Trade the curve or outright on the 10s? You hold more than one day? Surprised you can stay awake long enough to see them move that much, I do like the idea of trading them though, just got SFA about how to go about it.


----------



## kid hustlr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What do you actually do with the bonds? Trade the curve or outright on the 10s? You hold more than one day? Surprised you can stay awake long enough to see them move that much, I do like the idea of trading them though, just got SFA about how to go about it.




Bit of everything but mainly just (try) to job around the curve.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> Bit of everything but mainly just (try) to job around the curve.




Which means what? Position yourself for a trade that lasts a week based on a curve view, or just day trade when things may get out of whack on the opens or something? Having much success? With how little they move I'm surprised the bond guys don't go back to the SPI and "job" around on that?


----------



## kid hustlr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Which means what? Position yourself for a trade that lasts a week based on a curve view, or just day trade when things may get out of whack on the opens or something? Having much success? With how little they move I'm surprised the bond guys don't go back to the SPI and "job" around on that?




the XT can get going at times.

Mate to be honest I don't even know what the f&*% I do. Generally I just look at the curve market then look at the 3's and 10's and see if I can somehow make money.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> the XT can get going at times.
> 
> Mate to be honest I don't even know what the f&*% I do. Generally I just look at the curve market then look at the 3's and 10's and see if I can somehow make money.




Okay then....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Can anyone tell me why markets often do this on the open? Like the seng just now, opens, pushes lower to some random no support area then just goes beserk and shoots up to close the gap, anyone got any theories to why and how it does that, and why turn at THAT point? Makes it a bitch to try and pick the bottom, was expecting this to happen but just turned lower than I thought, or later should I say, chop chop chop nom nom mince screaming puke....then turns


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can anyone tell me why markets often do this on the open? Like the seng just now, opens, pushes lower to some random no support area then just goes beserk and shoots up to close the gap, anyone got any theories to why and how it does that, and why turn at THAT point? Makes it a bitch to try and pick the bottom, was expecting this to happen but just turned lower than I thought, or later should I say, chop chop chop nom nom mince screaming puke....then turns
> 
> View attachment 56449




Yeah its the magic Bol Band man!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah its the magic Bol Band man!




Yeah it's T/A, nah it's not T/A, yeah it's T/A. Whatever suits, maybe I should use fibs, then at least there'll  be a line that could be the reason it bounced furiously from that point lol


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah it's T/A, nah it's not T/A, yeah it's T/A. Whatever suits, maybe I should use fibs, then at least there'll  be a line that could be the reason it bounced furiously from that point lol




Actually it bounced cuz I went long and strong at that point. 




I have the Magic


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it bounced cuz I went long and strong at that point.
> 
> I have the Magic




Yep well you certainly have something I don't, and after 6 years of searching for what it is, I'm doubting if I ever will.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can anyone tell me why markets often do this on the open? Like the seng just now, opens, pushes lower to some random no support area then just goes beserk and shoots up to close the gap, anyone got any theories to why and how it does that, and why turn at THAT point? Makes it a bitch to try and pick the bottom, was expecting this to happen but just turned lower than I thought, or later should I say, chop chop chop nom nom mince screaming puke....then turns
> 
> View attachment 56449




Maybe its in the volume? The market tested a high volume node from a coupla sessions back. Does it all the time. It left value, tested old value and got firmly rejected...


----------



## CanOz

On another topic, i recall Boofis talking about the HSI_HHI spread. There are some nice opportuntities around the morning and afternoon opens to fade this spread. I suspect getting a fill is going to be the hidden caveat here...


----------



## kid hustlr

anyone heard from boofis lately?

t/h what did you do to him?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> anyone heard from boofis lately?
> 
> t/h what did you do to him?




Last I heard he off working and trying to get a bit more cash to trade.


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yep well you certainly have something I don't, and after 6 years of searching for what it is, I'm doubting if I ever will.




Sam, T/A is mostly a distraction IMHO. Yes, basics apply (have a look at 30min chart, you can see basic support trend line) but nothing is set in concrete, i think TH said it nicely T/A just frames the trade and you have to jump in, reading in afterwards is where the skill is. I still suffer from premature exits because of fear but i am mercyless when it comes to exits hence my bottom line is crap. I have no choice because the trick is to survive long enough to get the 'feel' developed. I suspect your 6 years was partially wasted because you jump from instrument to instrument. You have to pick one and stick with it no matter what and be tempted by the grass looking greener on the other side. I do dabble in other stuff but thats pure punting if i happen to luck out. I still urge you to stick it out mate.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Last I heard he off working and trying to get a bit more cash to trade.




ta mate.

was worried u and the seng had put him in a mental asylum


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> ta mate.
> 
> was worried u and the seng had put him in a mental asylum




Yes that's where all Seng traders end up. Never mind there is still plenty of room in here. :nuts::nuts:


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> ta mate.
> 
> was worried u and the seng had put him in a mental asylum






Trembling Hand said:


> Yes that's where all Seng traders end up. Never mind there is still plenty of room in here. :nuts::nuts:




Yep. DAX traders all end up there too!  (With the obvious exception of a certain T/A duck.)


----------



## tech/a

avion said:


> Sam, T/A is mostly a distraction IMHO. Yes, basics apply (have a look at 30min chart, you can see basic support trend line) but nothing is set in concrete, i think TH said it nicely T/A just frames the trade and you have to jump in, reading in afterwards is where the skill is. I still suffer from premature exits because of fear but i am mercyless when it comes to exits hence my bottom line is crap. I have no choice because the trick is to survive long enough to get the 'feel' developed. I suspect your 6 years was partially wasted because you jump from instrument to instrument. You have to pick one and stick with it no matter what and be tempted by the grass looking greener on the other side. I do dabble in other stuff but thats pure punting if i happen to luck out. I still urge you to stick it out mate.




I certainly agree with this.
One of the few real challenges in life that keeps on keeping on.
Truth is You'll never defeat it.
Just win the odd bout!

The most perfect transformer to exist.

 (With the obvious exception of a certain T/A duck.)

Nah Im here


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can anyone tell me why markets often do this on the open? Like the seng just now, opens, pushes lower to some random no support area then just goes beserk and shoots up to close the gap, anyone got any theories to why and how it does that, and why turn at THAT point? Makes it a bitch to try and pick the bottom, was expecting this to happen but just turned lower than I thought, or later should I say, chop chop chop nom nom mince screaming puke....then turns





Courtesy of ideas from both TH and Frank D over the years, I find the 50% zones in all time frames can make sense of what appears random. Having the ballz to take the trade is a different scenario however:1zhelp:  I don't have DOM, but its "behaviour" right before the turn would tell some stories I imagine.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Courtesy of ideas from both TH and Frank D over the years, I find the 50% zones in all time frames can make sense of what appears random. Having the ballz to take the trade is a different scenario however:1zhelp:  I don't have DOM, but its "behaviour" right before the turn would tell some stories I imagine.




Is that supposed to have any relevance in that chart? Because I can't see anything important bounces/trend changes off those 50% lines.


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Is that supposed to have any relevance in that chart? Because I can't see anything important bounces/trend changes off those 50% lines.





Sorry if it wasn't clear; thought it was obvious  ..... The spike down/reversal area you were "going crook about" was pretty much the 50% level of last weeks range  ..... to the tick!   (i.e. where the pink lines meet  ... Just an observation)


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Sorry if it wasn't clear; thought it was obvious  ..... The spike down/reversal area you were "going crook about" was pretty much the 50% level of last weeks range  ..... to the tick!   (i.e. where the pink lines meet  ... Just an observation)




Ahh sorry, didn't see the candle that touches it nearly to the tick, blended in with the next day dotted line separator. Might be a coincidence more than anything as the last two weeks didn't seem to have anything outside in regard to the 50% lines.

But yeah, it is something I already keep an eye on. Not quite on that large of a scale though.


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ahh sorry, didn't see the candle that touches it nearly to the tick, blended in with the next day dotted line separator. Might be a coincidence more than anything as the last two weeks didn't seem to have anything outside in regard to the 50% lines.
> 
> But yeah, it is something I already keep an eye on. Not quite on that large of a scale though.




As you say probably coincidence hitting the exact 50% tick.    I don't have the kahunas to trade the HSI, but flicking back through the chart there seem to be a fair amount of spikes into that 50% weekly area .... not always to the tick but close.  Cheers.


----------



## CanOz

WTF? I went to have a shower and came back to an open profit of over 4000 HKD (sim) on my HSI_HHI spread trade.....news???


----------



## kid hustlr

pmi


----------



## CanOz

Here are the two Hong Kong contracts as well as the spread....this really takes some of the volatility out of the HSI by trading it with the HHI. You can see that the spread trends much better than the outrights...

Its very easy to construct this spread on IB.

I would encourage anyone interested in trading Asia indices to look at this spread instead of the outrights. 

Today on the open i took two sim trades, I sold the spike up on the open and rode it down, then exited and bought the bottom...it usually returns to a 'mean'. At one to one the HSI is more volitile and tends to recover quicker than the HHI. I don't know if my thinking is right here yet, still just playing around really.

- - - Updated - - -

Here are the two Hong Kong contracts as well as the spread....this really takes some of the volatility out of the HSI but trading it with the HHI. You can see that the spread trends much better than the outrights...

Its very easy to construct this spread on IB.

I would encourage anyone interested in trading Asia indices to look at this spread instead of the outrights. 

Today on the open i took two sim trades, I sold the spike up on the open and rode it down, then exited and bought the bottom...it usually returns to a 'mean'. At one to one the HSI is more volatile and tends to recover quicker than the HHI. I don't know if my thinking is right here yet, still just playing around really.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> I would encourage anyone interested in trading Asia indices to look at this spread instead of the outrights.
> 
> Today on the open i took two sim trades, I sold the spike up on the open and rode it down, then exited and bought the bottom...it usually returns to a 'mean'. At one to one the HSI is more volatile and tends to recover quicker than the HHI. I don't know if my thinking is right here yet, still just playing around really.




You realise you wrote everything twice in that post? 

That spread is interesting, is it an actual spread "product" that you can enter or do you have to leg in manually, because if so, then screw trying to do that with those two crazy markets! But if it's a tradeable from as one product then I might look into it, certainly seems to trend well  and looks good to fade? 

Now to try and get spread charts in NT.........something it MASSIVELY lacks in its features.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> You realise you wrote everything twice in that post?
> 
> That spread is interesting, is it an actual spread "product" that you can enter or do you have to leg in manually, because if so, then screw trying to do that with those two crazy markets! But if it's a tradeable from as one product then I might look into it, certainly seems to trend well  and looks good to fade?
> 
> Now to try and get spread charts in NT.........something it MASSIVELY lacks in its features.




lol...yeah, i don't know what happened when i tried to edit the spelling mistakes...

You can construct the spread on IB as i showed in the video i did a while back...will find that link. You can even specify how many contracts of each to trade, but i use 1:1 on this spread. I'm not sure though how realistic it is to use the new 'product' to enter and exit trades. I fear there could be some slippage and to leg it manually you'd need a quiet spell with no bid/ask spread...

At 1:1 the HSI_HHI is a fractional spread that isn't perfect but it does make for rational behavior...

I have a spread indicator for NT that i had coded. Boofis also gave me one. Neither are easy to use so i abandoned them in favor of IB for indices and eSignal for calendars.


----------



## CanOz

Here is a link to constructing the spreads Sam....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27182&p=809378#post809378


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Nice trend on the 2:1 chart too for pretty much the entirety of this expiry.....interesting, playing around with it in esignal.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nice trend on the 2:1 chart too for pretty much the entirety of this expiry.....interesting, playing around with it in esignal.
> 
> View attachment 56494




Cool, how did you input the ratio? When you put multiple contracts in IB it doesn't chart the spread any different...from what i've seen so far anyway. I've only tried 5:2 on the FESX_Dax.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Here is a link to constructing the spreads Sam....
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27182&p=809378#post809378




Did you delete my post just now?? Seems to have vanished 


EDIT: ooops never mind! It just appeared again haha, ASF having a fit.

Thanks for the link. 

In esignal just do whatever number * whatever contract. So for a 1 HSI - 2 HHI spread I do "HSI F4-HKF - 2 * HHI F4-HKF". Spaces seem to be very important. Got a couple DOM's up now and playing away, could get used to this


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Did you delete my post just now?? Seems to have vanished
> 
> 
> EDIT: ooops never mind! It just appeared again haha, ASF having a fit.
> 
> Thanks for the link.
> 
> In esignal just do whatever number * whatever contract. So for a 1 HSI - 2 HHI spread I do "HSI F4-HKF - 2 * HHI F4-HKF". Spaces seem to be very important. Got a couple DOM's up now and playing away, could get used to this




Ahh, right in the 'spread expression' itself, of course that makes perfect sense..lol

Thanks!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

The perfect way to have a spread trade, the amount of times I've seen the awesome spread traders have both legs in profit, pity it doesn't last long with a honkers spread haha, pretty crazy 

I must say I much prefer playing around with spreads than outrights, the way you can juggle the positions, job in and out and play with it to better your position as it moves about is great


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I must say I much prefer playing around with spreads than outrights, the way you can juggle the positions, job in and out and play with it to better your position as it moves about is great




Yeah, i'm guessing thats why most Pros are spreaders....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Not a bad first day on that 2:1 spread, I think I got 40-50 points on it, kinda tricky to work out in NT. HHI playing a bit of catch up just now, good to see the relationship between the two at different times throughout the day, HHI underperforms the HSI then from about 4:40 onwards it outperforms it, good opportunities at the open and close of the sessions, as with all markets I suppose 

EDIT: Just comparing the two spreads, 1:1 and 2:1 together, looks as though maybe there is something in going long the 1:1 when it goes the opposite way from the 2:1, seems to play catch up a bit, interesting nonetheless, see what happens from here on in


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hello Groovers

Wondering if anyone can do me a fav and send me todays and next Mondays tick data in NT format if anyone has it. (clearly at the end of trade Monday )

That would be cool. Happy Aussie weekend 

lata mate.


----------



## pavilion103

Pardon my ignorance. I'm assuming this is simply a banter thread? Is there one to actually discuss the international markets in a more analytical way?

Surprised after last night that no one seems to be getting interested!!!!!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

It is going to be very interesting next week. What a week was for global stock markets. Friday was not a good day for many markets exceptions are markets such as Tanzania, Sri-Lanka, Vietnam and UAE which had uptrend. Markets such as Bulgaria, Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, China, Mongolia, Philippines and Taiwan were resilient on Friday. In the meantime South American markets were in downtrend. 

If we analyse global markets we could see few frontier bull markets in 2014 and 2015. Globally current situation could create another opportunity for intelligent investors. There could be valuable sectors and stocks in countries such as USA, Germany, UK, India, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, New Zealand and Australia. Some of the top gainers in the global markets on Friday were:

MSFT,PG:US,BDSI:US,RSA:LN,FRSE:LN,OMH:AU,PRU:AU, AOR:NZ, SEA:NZ

I am slightly bullish on undervalued global commodities stocks now. Some commodities could have strong uptrend and some commodities could go down further. In the currency market Aussie dropped below 87cents. Some Asians currencies such as Won, Malaysian ringgit, Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiahs fell. The Turkish lira plunged and South Africa’s rand tumbled. USD number one bull currency in the world could advance further. Both NZD and AUD could go down further. 

Let markets to fall or go up. Mr Market will decide where to go. It is time to identify coming bull markets, sectors, stocks, commodities and currencies.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Pardon my ignorance. I'm assuming this is simply a banter thread? Is there one to actually discuss the international markets in a more analytical way?
> 
> Surprised after last night that no one seems to be getting interested!!!!!




Analysis is sssoooooo overrated!!!

This thread is well suited to those whom want to vent after the market, despite all their cunning analysis, tears them a new one!

Having said that, I am sure that many will welcome analytical discussion alongside the usual banter.


----------



## pavilion103

Haha Funnily enough my analysis works quite well for me!

But I always enjoy venting too!!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

There's no "Dribble BS and rave on about all sorts after you've done trades" thread, so here it is :


----------



## pavilion103

ThingyMajiggy said:


> There's no "Dribble BS and rave on about all sorts after you've done trades" thread, so here it is :




Haha I guess it all has its place.

I'm just annoyed at the lack of serious analysis and enthusiasm in here but this obviously isn't the thread anyway!

But this is a good, relaxed, fun thread. I do enjoy it!


----------



## havaiana

Interesting times ahead...

China halting domestic transfers for 3 days before their biggest holiday

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/26/china-halts-bank-cash-transfers-2/


----------



## satanoperca

havaiana said:


> Interesting times ahead...
> 
> China halting domestic transfers for 3 days before their biggest holiday
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/26/china-halts-bank-cash-transfers-2/




Now that is interesting, how to piss of the people. Sorry your money is our money until we deem it fit to allow you some access to it. 

HSBC has withdrawn it's own withdraw limits on savings accounts after consumer backlash. More like everyone running to the bank asking for their money, Cyprus must still be in peoples minds and when a banks limits the amount of cash you can withdraw, I to would be concerned if my money/savings were safe.

US debt ceiling coming to town again in the next week.

All very interesting, can feel a chill coming over the global markets again.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

satanoperca said:


> Now that is interesting, how to piss of the people. Sorry your money is our money until we deem it fit to allow you some access to it.




The entire global banking system relies on people not wanting their money at the same time. Google "run on the bank"....

I don't think a crisis will be as bad here as the last GFC...there are no derivatives to systematize the risk...its just good ole fashion bad loans that will never be paid back.

A run on the banks can be thwarted easier here than overseas, the people would almost expect it. A daily withdrawel allowance for food etc....

My wife is going to the bank today actually....nothing wrong with keeping a little extra cash handy...

IT will be interesting to see if a panic starts, how it shows up in the indices.


----------



## burglar

ThingyMajiggy said:


> There's no "Dribble BS and rave on about all sorts after you've done trades" thread, so here it is :



Next best thing:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15435


----------



## CanOz

Well that's a nice gap down 2% for both the HHI and the HSI ....


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> The entire global banking system relies on people not wanting their money at the same time. Google "run on the bank"....
> 
> I don't think a crisis will be as bad here as the last GFC...there are no derivatives to systematize the risk...its just good ole fashion bad loans that will never be paid back.
> 
> A run on the banks can be thwarted easier here than overseas, the people would almost expect it. A daily withdrawel allowance for food etc....
> 
> My wife is going to the bank today actually....nothing wrong with keeping a little extra cash handy...
> 
> IT will be interesting to see if a panic starts, how it shows up in the indices.




Good to get your insight on it, had tried to ask you actually but wouldn't let me edit the post, said something about suspicious content coming from my network


----------



## CanOz

Sam, have a look at the ES,NKD spread as well.....


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Well that's a nice gap down 2% for both the HHI and the HSI ....




Nice for the shorties, but say "so long!" to the longs!


----------



## CanOz

The H shares are now down 2.5%, the HSI only 2.23%


----------



## CanOz

Ya know, i reckon half the battle with these intra-day spreads are not when you enter, but when you start to average in again....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Sam, have a look at the ES,NKD spread as well.....




Haha I'm totally baboozled today, thinking it's Monday all the time and wondering why there's so much activity and posts on here then I remember again that yesterday was Monday and the overseas markets were open 

What's NKD? Nikkei?


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha I'm totally baboozled today, thinking it's Monday all the time and wondering why there's so much activity and posts on here then I remember again that yesterday was Monday and the overseas markets were open
> 
> What's NKD? Nikkei?




lol...

yeah NKD is the dollar denominated Nikkei contract on the Globex...I'll be spending the morning working on some energy spreads, will post them up in the spread trading thread...


----------



## sinner

> nteresting times ahead...
> 
> China halting domestic transfers for 3 days before their biggest holiday
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonch...h-transfers-2/




Yeah, no.

Best keep an eye on those crazy conspiracy websites that do actual journalism

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-26/no-there-no-stoppage-cash-transfers-china

But don't worry, you're in good company, even the best and brightest will believe just about anything they're fed 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...a-hoax-story-dennis-gartman-completely-fooled


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Yeah, no.
> 
> Best keep an eye on those crazy conspiracy websites that do actual journalism
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-26/no-there-no-stoppage-cash-transfers-china
> 
> But don't worry, you're in good company, even the best and brightest will believe just about anything they're fed
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...a-hoax-story-dennis-gartman-completely-fooled




Yeah, that was weird. Even made the news feed on IB...i showed my wife and she just brushed it off, said it just looked like what the banks did normally this time of year. With the default looming we did withdrawal some extra cash though...

Good to see you again Sinner.


----------



## CanOz

Here is the ES, seasonal trends... Courtesy of SeasonAlgo.

That pull back was in line with the 15 year average.


----------



## CanOz

Fark me its getting nasty out there...even the Swiss Frank is rallying with the gold for safety...


----------



## cynic

Good to see that the DAX is back to its former self!

Those moves really set my grail a rattling and a ringing.

If a certain little black duck reports a 2,000 euro profit from tonight's trading then I shall definitely know who's to blame!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy the Seng is gonna be hot on the open.....  


Half day today too!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Boy the Seng is gonna be hot on the open.....
> 
> 
> Half day today too!




Living up to your expectations so far

Lunar new year rally? Shorts covering before the holiday..!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Living up to your expectations so far
> 
> Lunar new year rally? Shorts covering before the holiday..!!




Yep was expecting that but some how managed to get a little bit out of shape there in the end..... 



Wait for it.....


----------



## CanOz

ROTF....

Well i hope you ended the session in the green...

Good luck for the year of the Horse!


----------



## Trembling Hand

yeah all goooood. Just the usual shoulda been betta..... 

Hope its not a horse like this.. :horse:....


----------



## notting

Might be more of the bucking kind.
Watching to see if the S&P 100 day holds again.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

It was some frontier markets which had some resilient to some of the biggest drops recently. However both developed and emerging markets have outperformed the frontiers markets during last two days. It is very interesting. What a day was for USA stocks. It was a day for Nikkei 225 as well. Some of the top winners were Boeing and ATHN: US and 9501: JP.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

At this time of writing china stocks rises one month high. They are having nice day today. Asian and Russian stocks have become very attractive now. Some short sellers probably have lost betting against S & P 500. Surprisingly New Zealand market ended in negative territory today. At this moment both Pakistan and Sri-Lanka markets also in red. Emerging market crisis is just a talk. Declines in stocks, bonds and currencies are a buying opportunity. At the moment some small markets are having troubles due to short term events. They too will go up sooner than later. Today’s some undervalued red markets also are a buying opportunity. 

There were so many crisis such as banking crisis, credit crisis and property crisis etc during last couple of years. Still we saw bull markets in crisis hit countries such as UAE, Pakistan, Japan, UK and USA. Similarly tapering is not the end of the world. It is good for the global economy in the mid and long term. Just like other crisis speculation on tapering also create opportunities even in emerging markets. Crises are opportunities for intelligent market players. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## havaiana

Was anyone trading currency futures or any futures around 3pm today? any problems with you execution?

Wont bore you too much with the details, but I had some problems with my broker with orders not executing/cancelling and when I called them up to go flat/cancel pendings they couldn't do it because I was flat on their screen. Turns out I wasn't flat and it cost me money. They are blaming a "problem with the world wide web"

Anyone else have issues? Would I have the right to claim the cost back from my broker here?


----------



## barney

havaiana said:


> Was anyone trading currency futures or any futures around 3pm today? any problems with you execution?
> 
> Wont bore you too much with the details, but I had some problems with my broker with orders not executing/cancelling and when I called them up to go flat/cancel pendings they couldn't do it because I was flat on their screen. Turns out I wasn't flat and it cost me money. They are blaming a "problem with the world wide web"
> 
> Anyone else have issues? Would I have the right to claim the cost back from my broker here?





I only trade bucket shops, but that sounds pretty dodgy Hav .... Who are you with??


----------



## havaiana

barney said:


> I only trade bucket shops, but that sounds pretty dodgy Hav .... Who are you with??




I'm going to wait for their response first before giving the name. If it's a good response (or if it was 'a world wide web problem') I will let it pass. If the response is not good I will give the full details of what happened (and maybe complain to CFTC), cause it's feels very dodgy right now.

Orders were taking like 5 minutes to cancel/place. I realised when I was flat and had an order away from the market which I had pressed cancel on minutes before the market got there, execute.

So I tried to close the position, but didn't work, so I try another closing order, didn't work.

Call tech support in a panic (number in my phone is US hours only, out of hours number on website has no international number so takes a few minutes to work out the international codes). In the meantime the first exit order appears, takes me out, but also the second order appears and puts me in the other way. (i had pressed cancel all orders when they didn't work hoping not to have random orders just appearing minutes later on delay, obviously didn't work

Tech support tells me i am flat, I open another platform of the same account, one shows me flat other shows me in a position that could take my account in 75 ticks going against me. WTF do you do in that situation? Ended up getting out with a loss less than i had made for the day, but that was just lucky and the money although not much is still a decent amount to me.

Funny thing is this is a Chicago based futures broker, never had this problem with a bucket shop

Edit to add, my internet was working fine with other stuff, so problem was not with my PC or internet, when i tried to open up the second platform the first few times it told me it couldn't contact their server.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Edit to add, my internet was working fine with other stuff, so problem was not with my PC or internet, when i tried to open up the second platform the first few times it told me it couldn't contact their server.





Sounds like AMP


----------



## nulla nulla

havaiana said:


> Was anyone trading currency futures or any futures around 3pm today? any problems with you execution?
> 
> Wont bore you too much with the details, but I had some problems with my broker with orders not executing/cancelling and when I called them up to go flat/cancel pendings they couldn't do it because I was flat on their screen. Turns out I wasn't flat and it cost me money. They are blaming a "problem with the world wide web"
> 
> Anyone else have issues? Would I have the right to claim the cost back from my broker here?




Dunno if this would affect you but between 2:15pm and 2:45pm today the ASX had a dummy spit.


----------



## qldfrog

on a different matter:
news US STOCKS-Wall St sells off after Fed sticks with stimulus cuts dated 29/01
todays news:
US STOCKS-Wall St advances as Yellen keeps Fed policy intact
basically very same  news and 2 opposite move of the market

what I do not currently undertsand is the dow up 1.3 % again while at the* same time *both gold and bonds are rising  1.5% too????
This goes against all what I have learnt.
I understand that everything can rise as the US (and others) are printing monopoly money all the time but still.
Anyone whop has a clue, please help
I remain a short term bear but the market teachs me otherwise..it hurts


----------



## barney

havaiana said:


> . (i had pressed cancel all orders when they didn't work hoping not to have random orders just appearing minutes later on delay, obviously *didn't work*
> 
> *Tech support tells me i am flat*, I open another platform of the same account, one shows me flat other shows me in a position that could take my account in 75 ticks going against me. WTF do you do in that situation? Ended up getting out with a loss less than i had made for the day, but that was just lucky and the money although not much is still a decent amount to me.
> 
> Funny thing is this is a Chicago based futures broker, never had this problem with a bucket shop
> 
> Edit to add, my *internet was working fine *with other stuff, so problem was not with my PC or internet, when i tried to open up the second platform the first few times it told me it *couldn't contact their server*.




Not good.  All points to their end.  

Had a couple of similar issues a few years back with two separate bucket shops  .... Both of them honoured the "problem" and reimbursed my account for losses  .....  Not sure whether you'll get the same service from Chicago though ..... If they are not reasonable, you may need to talk with your feet Hav.


----------



## havaiana

barney said:


> Not good.  All points to their end.
> 
> Had a couple of similar issues a few years back with two separate bucket shops  .... Both of them honoured the "problem" and reimbursed my account for losses  .....  Not sure whether you'll get the same service from Chicago though ..... If they are not reasonable, you may need to talk with your feet Hav.




I had a small issue with a bucket shop once and they too reimbursed me.

Their response overnight was ridiculous, they are suggesting I had a firewall problem even though their tech support was having the same issues. They are also denying that they have any records of any issues or complaints over the time from any clients. Lucky I have the phone convo on my phone and have an email from their tech support, just flat out dishonest. Just waiting for another response tomorrow then will name them and give full details. Going to send complaint to CFTC too, why they would do this over such a small amount of money i don't know. If they had just been honest with me I probably would have just worn the cost as it will cost that much to move money around to a new broker anyway

Anyway, will not block up this thread anymore with broker issues


----------



## cynic

havaiana said:


> ...
> Anyway, will not block up this thread anymore with broker issues



I am sure that I am not alone in wanting to hear of any further developments as broker issues are of interest and concern to many traders.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

What a beautiful Friday was for DOW, S & P 500, and my favourite NASDAQ. Now the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is within 10 points of its all-time high. Nasdaq is up for sixth straight day. It looks like just like people like to eat chicken they like to taste some soup as well. Consumers could taste more and more hot beverages too in the coming decade. Campbell soup Company is doing well. Simple people like simple companies. It is not too big to fall. Both Hyatt Hotels Corp and Campbell soup became market movers. It is good to see new market movers in markets. Other wise market could become boring. We could see new market movers time to time in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets in the coming years. It is time to identify new market movers before others. It was not a Good Friday for Japanese stocks. In Indian market Tata motors rose more than 3%. In New Zealand Sky City, Telecom, Trade me and OceanaGold stocks etc outperformed other stocks on Friday. We could see some sudden surge in Chinese stocks.  

As I said before some pullbacks are opportunities and we should not ignore any market. Because when the bull starts we could miss the train. Many missed the train in the USA, Greece, UAE, UK, Germany, New Zealand, Australia, Philippines and  Vietnam etc. Some trains are closer to their current destination and next destination could begin after 2015.These days some frontier markets are having pullbacks. In the meantime I still maintain that we could expect some sort of correction in overvalued markets including stock market in UAE in 2014. Therefore some sort of rotation is very important. There are plenty of undervalued markets, sectors, commodities and currencies in the world. These are great opportunities and some could have life time opportunities. 

I believe some frontier and emerging stocks, currencies and their commodities are very attractive on valuations now. Mid term and long term players could benefit lot.
Most of the market players will follow today’s hot stocks and nobody wants to do study on out of favour hidden gems. We could gain some capital gain by identifying correct markets, sectors, currencies and stocks before others. Markets, commodities, stocks and currencies never stay in the same place. Normally many will avoid sick ones. They will go behind hot ones. When sick become healthy it could become too hot and all will go behind it. Many invest through funds and ADRs in emerging and frontier markets although there are opportunities of direct investment in firms or sectors in those economies. Direct investment has flexibility to pick stocks. On other hand funds invest only stocks known by foreigners. So they miss some of the outstanding companies in markets. 10 years back XERO listed in the New Zealand market was a hidden gem. Not many funds wanted to try this beautiful company with beautiful story.  Profitable investments can be made by taking a long term investment perspective.  Any business takes time to establish and expand.

Just like human beings we should identify personality of the market that we are following. Different market and different stocks have different personality. If we apply correct strategy while having patience and discipline then we are already right in our first stage. In commodity market we can see some sudden surge in silver. Volatility could be normal in the coming years. Still asset prices could go up in the coming decade. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Just like we had some opportunities in emerging and developed markets sell off we could have some great opportunity in some undervalued frontier markets now. Some frontier markets in Africa and Asia are having pullback and volatility now. It is very interesting. It looks like after strong rally both Pakistan and Vietnam markets are searching for new direction. We could see some correction in 2014 in above two markets as well. In the meantime Chinese stocks are shinning. AUD is hovering around 90c. It is very interesting year for global stock, commodity and currency market in 2014. There could be opportunities and setbacks. At some point even we could see correction in developed markets. UAE market too is looking for direction now. Once we see correction in some developed markets, Will market players take some of their funds to Africa, Asia and South America? Will Brazil shine again? There are so many ways to analyse global markets. Value masters could hide in their great value businesses with great potential in the coming decade. In the meantime the Nasdaq Composite rose for an eighth straight session. NASDAQ too could have correction. In the long run it will shine never before. We can see mixed signals in commodity market. Oil has some short term support now. Soya bean prices could come down more than corn in 2014 and 2015. Beef prices could stay high in 2014. There is a possibility global tea and coffee output could come down in 2014 and 2015. The USA could produce more oil in the future. 2014 is a good period for grain elevators and meat producers. Countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Netherlands and the USA could benefit lot. Once we see lower NZD and AUD some industries could have rapid growth in Australasia. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just LOL hey....


----------



## Trembling Hand

And howz the gap on the Seng Index.......... 





Only 100 points in an instant... :1zhelp:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> And howz the gap on the Seng Index..........
> 
> Only 100 points in an instant... :1zhelp:




You reckon you can make a living just trading the PMI once a month?


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> You reckon you can make a living just trading the PMI once a month?




whoever has the algo that sweeps the SFE bonds. incredible


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> You reckon you can make a living just trading the PMI once a month?




Depends...... If you trade like a good trader or you trade like me!!


----------



## avion

What a day!!! Managed to turn substantial profit into substantial loss, grrrr...! As they say, next 1000 trades...


----------



## kid hustlr

snooze fest today


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> snooze fest today




Yep, I predicted it in my morning notes "expect quiet low volume and range day", and somehow still well and truly smoked my daily stop trying to hit runners all day.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

What a week of volatility for global markets? We also saw some sell off in stock markets. Now we are in the stage of volatility in all types of markets. These are normal events not only in stock markets but also in other markets such as commodity and currency market. As I said before volatility could become normal in the coming decade. Why do worry about volatility if you could find great businesses before others. We had credit crisis, banking crisis, property crisis, currency crisis and commodity crisis etc in the past. Didn’t markets recover later? Market volatility, pull backs, crash, correction or other types of crisis bring opportunity for other players. Latest noise is tapering. Markets could go down not because of tapering but because of market cycles, and other factors such as over valuation and panic etc. Even tapering is very good for certain industries including Asian export companies. In the meantime Chinese consumers bought over 20 million vehicles in 2013. It is the world’s second-largest auto market. Boeing expects  to  deliver 140  planes  to  China in 2014. . Not  bad. 

There are lot of noises in global markets. They say some top players are betting against S&P 500 and they love put options. According to some they want to forget emerging markets and should look for frontier markets because they are still rising. Some say frontier markets are very attractive. Not all frontier markets are rising. Even in frontier markets we cannot expect bull markets from each and every market at once. Those markets witch had bull markets could have correction. Some could build their base before their great bull markets. Some frontier markets could have volatility and pull backs before their bull market. Some frontier markets could have bull markets instantly.

In the currency market, the pound had its biggest weekly decline against the dollar in three months. Meanwhile Italy’s 10 year government bonds advanced for a fourth week. I found following interesting article on NZD.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11204126

Inside Money: An Irish view of the NZ dollar

In commodity markets I just looked at some of the following forecasts. Corn prices could drop to an average of $3.90 a bushel in the 2014-2015 marketing year from $4.50 the previous 12 month. Soybean prices could average around $9.65 a bushel, down from $12.70 a bushel in 2013-2014, while wheat is seen averaging $5.30 a bushel versus $6.80 the previous year. Cotton prices will fall to 68 cents a pound, down from 76 cents in 2013-2014. Some are expecting grain prices to fall five year lows. According to latest forecast, soybeans, plantings should set an all-time high of 79.5m acres. Who’s right about corn prices? There is considerable difference of opinion about the prospects for future corn prices. According to the USDA projections that the average farm price of corn will be around $3.50 for the next five years. The current futures market indicates average corn price between $4.40 and $4.50 over the next four years. Other projections are very extreme and expect corn price below $ 2.80 for the next five years. More about other commodities, bull currencies and bull markets later. 

Finally let us find new market movers, bull markets, bull sectors, bull commodities, bull currencies and bull stocks in the coming years in global markets. 2014 could be year of another opportunity. Have a nice week end.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


----------



## Trembling Hand

A bit hot but this doesn't look like a weak market.


----------



## kid hustlr

I do enjoy the T/H internals post. But wheres the 52 week highs/lows?

perhaps mkt takes a breather before kicking higher?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> I do enjoy the T/H internals post. But wheres the 52 week highs/lows?
> 
> perhaps mkt takes a breather before kicking higher?




Yeah was a bit rushed. Named it all wrong. Will update it tomorrow..... To busy smashing my head against the  and throwing the c: because I sold out a full lot hun-gie odd points ago......

Again!


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah was a bit rushed. Named it all wrong. Will update it tomorrow..... To busy smashing my head against the  and throwing the c: because I sold out a full lot hun-gie odd points ago......
> 
> Again!




if you're anything like me you'll think about it all night and not sleep.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah was a bit rushed. Named it all wrong. Will update it tomorrow..




As promised. The 52 week highs (yellow line) and the 20 day avg (blue line) against the S&P500.




I'm not too worried about the lower 52 week highs as its something of a lagger on the swings but the breadth (last chart posted) is showing a hot market. Certainly not one with underling weakness. Nowhere near the type of market we had in 2007-8 like this, 



from some smart guy and "It is all over" in Dec 07.  



Bears ya got anything for us?


----------



## kid hustlr

Gee I'm quite surprised how weak the 52 week highs looks.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> As promised. The 52 week highs (yellow line) and the 20 day avg (blue line) against the S&P500.
> 
> Bears ya got anything for us?




The US is not where the problem is. It's China that's quite wobbly. And really the ASX is simply torn between the two.




P.S. Something is happening soon... Yuan largest drop against $US in 7 years...


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> The US is not where the problem is. It's China that's quite wobbly. And really the ASX is simply torn between the two.
> 
> View attachment 57007
> 
> 
> P.S. Something is happening soon... Yuan largest drop against $US in 7 years...




Yeah, TH said the same thing yesty...


----------



## CanOz

Nick got me inspired to play with some trend filters recently and I've always used the ES/NQ spread as a heads up for a turn in the market. Here's the spread with a trend filter on it, used to paint the bars of the ES, with an ES coral filter on it as well (the line).

Still the coral filter works earlier than the NQ....its working on the slop of the average alone.

Still green!

I might try one with the FTSE as well, the financials are supposed to lead.


----------



## CanOz

Here is the ES:Z spread, in this case there are many instances where the spread indicates a change in trend before the ES filter.


----------



## CanOz

Here is the ES and the FTSE, with a MACD of the spread. Still no signal to reverse the current trend in the spread but it looks immanent, who will win this one? The coral filter or the MACD?


----------



## CanOz

More interesting trend filters....the ES:6A and the ES:6J spreads....almost identical.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Intelligent market players could have opportunities in all types of markets provided they do home work. Global market behaviour in February was mixed. We saw volatility; sell off, some of the biggest one day drops and some of the biggest one day ups. Even some markets had all time high. Markets go up and down in stages. Some markets are closer to the top and some markets are about to begin their bull. When compare with developed and emerging markets frontier market performed poorly in February. Of course they had some volatility. Month of March could be different ball game.

If I am correct Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank may change its strategy for reducing asset purchases if they see weakness in the economy. She has very sensible and responsible approach to the global economy and markets. So far S&P 500 up 175 percent from a 12-year low. Not bad. Emerging market stocks advanced 3.2 percent in February, the first monthly gain since October. As I said before we should not ignore any market. Friday was a very good day for Asian pacific markets. We saw strong rally in developed, emerging and frontier markets there. Global stocks, bonds and commodities rose together in February for the first time in seven months. Asian stocks completed the first monthly advance since October. Sofar New Zealand market is doing well.

In the commodity market we can see some surge in some commodity prices due to short term factors. In the meantime the euro gained against 14 of its 16 main peers. NZD still has its short term strength due to short term factors. Sooner than later it could become one of the bear currencies in the world. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## kid hustlr

You looking for the gap(s) close here TH or does this Ukraine stuff have some weight to it?


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> You looking for the gap(s) close here TH or does this Ukraine stuff have some weight to it?




Wondering the same thing, I don't reckon the weekend developments were priced in much, but don't think anyone expects all out war still. I'm thinking maybe will end a bit like the Georgia stuff which didn't have too much of an effect on the markets.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> You looking for the gap(s) close here TH or does this Ukraine stuff have some weight to it?




That would seem like the play but which time zone is it going to kick in. Probably not enough short yet to squeeze back to flat yet... Come Euro or US open that may be the trigger though.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> That would seem like the play but which time zone is it going to kick in. Probably not enough short yet to squeeze back to flat yet... Come Euro or US open that may be the trigger though.




ta mate

SFE bonds are still bid and the 10 year treasuries still quite bid at this stage, following that theme Nikkei and mini v v heavy at this stage. it will turn at some stage as you said


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Current situation could create another great opportunity. Global stocks fall yesterday. In the meantime Chinese stock market was a clear winner yesterday together with commodity market. In Asian pacific region stocks Markets such New Zealand, Pakistan and Thailand were resilient. Some frontier markets too were resilient globally. I believe some frontier markets could have some limelight in the near future due to new development.

Both Ukraine and Russian markets went down very badly. Ukraine crisis has taken seriously at least for the short run.  I don’t think this will develop like crisis in Middle East. These are short term events. If war continues for the next five years to ten years still there could be great demand for some products including selected commodities.

We are seeing some surge in commodity prices due to short term factors. Even if we see some settlement to Ukrainian crisis still there could be opportunities in some commodities globally. We may see shortage or lower inventory in some commodities towards end of this year. As I said before we should not ignore any market and even some commodities. 

In the currency market the Ruble went down more than 1 percent against the dollar. US dollar got some life again.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## havaiana

MARKETWINNER said:


> ...Both Ukraine and Russian markets went down very badly. Ukraine crisis has taken seriously at least for the short run.  I don’t think this will develop like crisis in Middle East. These are short term events. If war continues for the next five years to ten years still there could be great demand for some products including selected commodities.
> 
> We are seeing some surge in commodity prices due to short term factors. Even if we see some settlement to Ukrainian crisis still there could be opportunities in some commodities globally. We may see shortage or lower inventory in some commodities towards end of this year. As I said before we should not ignore any market and even some commodities.
> 
> In the currency market the Ruble went down more than 1 percent against the dollar. US dollar got some life again.
> ...




Looks to me like it's not really in anyone's interest to take any serious stance against Russia with this. I reckon it goes like one of these 2 scenarios:

1. Russia enters into talks with whomever and leaves or makes some type of agreement to officially leave but keep navy base there and unofficially remain in control of Crimea
2. Russia takes Crimea by force and aside from some posturing and appearing to do something through half hearted sanctions and halting joint military exercises etc (just enough posturing so as not to make Russia cut off EU of oil, energy etc), no one really does anything about it.

Either way don't see a huge impact on the markets.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, i sort of agree/hope it goes like No.1

To be honest, the media is playing this typical pro US. They have all but failed to mention the fact that Russia's only warm water navel base is in Crimea. I really can't blame Putin for wanting to exert some control over that area, as the only other choice is to lose the base, and the assets. In reality what he's done is likely a more peacful solution that what could happen if he didn't do it and the base was taken at some stage by a Pro Nato UKR government. Now that would have been sour. I just hope no one gets hurt in a ll of this. Putin has taken a big risk here, his economy will suffer for this and he's not stupid.


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Yeah, i sort of agree/hope it goes like No.1
> 
> To be honest, the media is playing this typical pro US. They have all but failed to mention the fact that Russia's only warm water navel base is in Crimea. I really can't blame Putin for wanting to exert some control over that area, as the only other choice is to lose the base, and the assets. In reality what he's done is likely a more peacful solution that what could happen if he didn't do it and the base was taken at some stage by a Pro Nato UKR government. Now that would have been sour. I just hope no one gets hurt in a ll of this. Putin has taken a big risk here, his economy will suffer for this and he's not stupid.




Totally agree. I'm not supporting Putin's actions or anything but few of the media articles comparing him to Hitler mention the fact that Crimea is actually 60% ethnic Russian and they see it as their duty to protect their people.


----------



## McLovin

It's funny how the Western media is supporting the protesters who removed a democratically elected president.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boo yah!!

all over.


----------



## cynic

Now watch the DAX as it unceremoniously rips off everyone's shorts!

Way to go DAXie bourse!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Boo yah!!
> 
> all over.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 57077





Ahhh, thats what it was, i just missed the news on the Bloomy....

Sneaky little fellow....is he just saving face?


----------



## McLovin

Trembling Hand said:


> Boo yah!!
> 
> all over.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 57077




Hmmm..there's two things going on though.

1) Military exercises inside Russia but close to the Ukrainian border.

2) Russian troops inside the Ukraine occupying Crimea.

It looks like he's just said (1) will stop.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Ahhh, thats what it was, i just missed the news on the Bloomy....
> 
> Sneaky little fellow....is he just saving face?




Ha! Gold ...... smack down.

Oil............ Face plant.

ES......rocketing. 

That was fun.   


Cannot wait for Marketwinner to post saying "there will be some opportunities in selected instruments."


----------



## Trembling Hand

McLovin said:


> Hmmm..there's two things going on though.
> 
> 1) Military exercises inside Russia but close to the Ukrainian border.
> 
> 2) Russian troops inside the Ukraine occupying Crimea.
> 
> It looks like he's just said (1) will stop.




Yep correct. Wait for the faders to fade the fading faders..... :


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Wait for the faders to fade the fading faders..... :




Errr Drrrrr....


----------



## CanOz

DAX gaps open 1%, the FTSE .73% should be an interesting session. .... now it'll likely slosh around like a fish outta water


----------



## CanOz

Awaiting fireworks on the HHI/HSI/AUD/SPI this morning....


----------



## CanOz

Quite a divergence in our BID_SPY indicator

BID is Sotheby's, on the top, the bottom is the SPY etf.... the theory (i think i read it in TASC) i read several years ago is that a weak market shows up first in the art auction markets....


----------



## qldfrog

not sure if it is the best place as more trend/general in context but for the bear in me:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-04/us-macro-data-starts-year-worst-2008-goldman-admits-broad-based-slowdown
Hope some will find it interesting as opposed to the pink lenses view of general media....


----------



## CanOz

Some pretty big size being chucked around on the offer on the HHI today...10s of 100 lots...


----------



## CanOz

HHI and the HSI are would up like a top now...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Emerging markets hard currency debt was the best performing fixed-income asset class in February despite some political tensions in several countries, especially Ukraine and Russia. . Institutional investors are back in the business while retail investors that continue to exit emerging markets bond funds. I think EM FX, rates and credit have become cheap enough to attract interest from non-dedicated EM investors. Indian shares rallied to record highs on Friday. We cannot expect fully-fledged war between Russia and Ukraine. There was some relaxation in recent market tensions over Ukraine. Just like some investors and other market players who over reacted to India on Indian rupee and worries there, this time too they over reacted to the Ukraine situation. We saw temporary rise in prices of some commodities despite higher inventory level and expected higher supply in 2014. This situation created some opportunity for some market players. MSCI's emerging markets index is headed for the fifth straight week of gains. Indian markets posted their biggest weekly gain since early 2013. On the other hand picture was gloomier in emerging Europe.

South Asian region should do well in the coming months. Already Pakistan had one of the best bull markets in the world. Along with India, frontier markets such as Bangladesh and Sri-lanka too are looking for market direction now. In short some emerging and frontier markets in Asia especially south Asia should outperform other emerging and frontier markets in the coming months due to new development. Similarly there could be some opportunities in some sectors in developed markets. In the meantime the dollar climbed on Friday. Actually dollar rose to six week high versus Yen. Asian currencies too had the best week since September 2012. There is a speculation that the Federal Reserve will slow further stimulus cuts. We have to wait and see. Have a nice week end!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting that the DAX was the worst hit yesty, down 1.4%, seems worries about gas supplies into Europe are weighing on the market a bit, the Eurostoxx down nearly 1% as well. The FTSE only down .64% and the US markets basically flat.


----------



## qldfrog

let's not forget China please: this is the real elephant in the room 
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/03/08/china-posts-unexpected-trade-deficit-government


----------



## Trembling Hand

Monday gap downs have a poor record of sticking, like last week, they normally finish higher but how many more can the dudes lift. The other thing with Monday gaps is when the few that do carry on down they really get nasty. Its probably due for one of those............... Isn't bears?


----------



## satanoperca

Trembling Hand said:


> Monday gap downs have a poor record of sticking, like last week, they normally finish higher but how many more can the dudes lift. The other thing with Monday gaps is when the few that do carry on down they really get nasty. Its probably due for one of those............... Isn't bears?




Come on TH, the world is about to collapse, has been going to do so since the dawn of time, so it is all just a matter timing?

Is it this time?

On a lighter note : 
Buy yourself one of my all telling crystal balls. A 50% discount applies to those ASF members for the next twenty hours* 

*unless China collapses before hand. **
** But as you are well aware, my crystal ball has told me China is going to be okay for the foreseeable future.


----------



## Trembling Hand

satanoperca said:


> On a lighter note :




What about this. First 8 seconds of the day the HSI does 270 points high to low. then nothing for the rest of the day. 




8 seconds


----------



## notting

There is little fundamental about the rally in US and European stocks.
It's simply that there is so much money with no where to go that they simply buy stocks.
You can't make anything buying bonds or even gold for the last 12 months.
It's got little to do with value.
It's kind of odd they don't buy our market which is far more reasonably valued.


----------



## Trembling Hand

notting said:


> There is little fundamental about the rally in US and European stocks.
> It's simply that there is so much money with no where to go that they simply buy stocks.
> You can't make anything buying bonds or even gold for the last 12 months.
> It's got little to do with value.
> It's kind of odd they don't buy our market which is far more reasonably valued.




Why do you say that there is no fundamental reason for the rally? The data out of the US has been getting better for a year now. And on a long term PE ratio that has been floating around its at its historical average. Not too hot, not too cool.


----------



## qldfrog

Th,
are you actually serious?
how many americans have a job in march 2014?
How many are  homeless or living on food stamp;
the market needs to be a few steps ahead and it has doubled post gfc crash  already but the economy has not followed.
Reality will have to sink in!
anyway, the market is always right....


----------



## CanOz

qldfrog said:


> Th,
> are you actually serious?
> how many americans have a job in march 2014?
> How many are  homeless or living on food stamp;
> the market needs to be a few steps ahead and it has doubled post gfc crash  already but the economy has not followed.
> Reality will have to sink in!
> anyway, the market is always right....




qldfrog, the market can only go by the data that is published. Regardless whether or not you believe the numbers, the numbers are showing an improving economy. Same as Europe and if you don't believe the numbers you should believe the bond yields of Spain and Italy.


----------



## CanOz

Let the short covering begin!


----------



## Trembling Hand

qldfrog said:


> Th,
> are you actually serious?
> how many americans have a job in march 2014?
> How many are  homeless or living on food stamp;
> the market needs to be a few steps ahead and it has doubled post gfc crash  already but the economy has not followed.
> Reality will have to sink in!
> anyway, the market is always right....




You are not trading the food stamp market Qldfrog, this is what you are trading,

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...FcGFkgWXh4C4BA&ved=0CCoQsAQ&biw=1328&bih=1055


----------



## CanOz

This short covering rally is a bit of a fizzer....


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> Why do you say that there is no fundamental reason for the rally? The data out of the US has been getting better for a year now. And on a long term PE ratio that has been floating around its at its historical average. Not too hot, not too cool.




I'm not saying it's out of the ordinary, surprising, unexpected or anything like that.  
I'm just saying it's got little to do with genuine value.  It's just that they have so much of it they have to put it somewhere and the market is the best bet until they do another navel contemplation and realize the worthlessness of it all.
A vote for the momentum people I guess and perhaps a little hint to stay on your toes!!!!!


----------



## qldfrog

Trembling Hand said:


> You are not trading the food stamp market Qldfrog, this is what you are trading,
> 
> https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...FcGFkgWXh4C4BA&ved=0CCoQsAQ&biw=1328&bih=1055




and that is why the stockmarket went ahead in the last 5 years but now we are trading the hope that the same will happen again  in the coming years..and here I believe dream on....
PS not a personal attack


----------



## havaiana

What's everyone's plan for today?

I was expecting a decent range yesterday in Asia then nothing happened (at least in AUD & YEN)

Kind of feels like we are in the same position today, some of the commodities dropped pretty big overnight again on China worries, so today we....

1. Same as yesterday flop around and do not much
2. Follow through to the downside
3. Short covering rally

I'm thinking it will be 1, but I'm hoping for a 2 followed by a 3


----------



## Trembling Hand

qldfrog said:


> and that is why the stockmarket went ahead in the last 5 years but now we are trading the hope that the same will happen again  in the coming years..and here I believe dream on....
> PS not a personal attack




Yeah fair call but why does it have to be doom? Why can't it just flop around for a while. Why do we have to be re-running the GFC every 6 months?


----------



## havaiana

Heaps of volume early, more than i've seen in ages, my no 1 option becoming less likely


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> ...
> 
> 1. Same as yesterday flop around and do not much
> 2. Follow through to the downside
> 3. Short covering rally
> 
> I'm thinking it will be 1, but I'm hoping for a 2 followed by a 3






havaiana said:


> Heaps of volume early, more than i've seen in ages, my no 1 option becoming less likely




 call it right then miss getting any


----------



## qldfrog

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah fair call but why does it have to be doom? Why can't it just flop around for a while. Why do we have to be re-running the GFC every 6 months?



because people are edgy, and scared/with scars 
and most of trading is done by computers
so quite irrational (both ways)
time will say but these are my current consideration, 
PS I am still more or less bulish on the long term but I forecast a nasty fall very soon couple of months max, and that is maybe what we need here:
a AUD collapse, a bit of inflation(link to aud down and the fact we do not produce much anymore) to ease the debt burden and lean the population(inc you and I) without raising taxes, and bring house prices to a decent real level..
a clean  new start
maybe not the best thread fopr this talk???


----------



## Trembling Hand

How ordinary can China be with their data releases. FFS!!!!!


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> How ordinary can China be with their data releases. FFS!!!!!




yeah thats pretty bad. we were closed so didnt really effect us but we got retail sales @ 4.51 lol


----------



## havaiana

Currencies still looking pretty risk averse early this morning. My first thought is to always fade the overnight, but I don't imagine a lot of people wanting to buy risk going into the weekend at the moment


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Currencies still looking pretty risk averse early this morning. My first thought is to always fade the overnight, but I don't imagine a lot of people wanting to buy risk going into the weekend at the moment




Struth, the US really sold off after the opening range.


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Struth, the US really sold off after the opening range.




Yep. Plenty of people seem to be stepping up to buy in Asia so far, I was expecting so see red but only see it on my P&L right now


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone been looking at the HSI/HHI spread. been doing some f'in funny stuff last few weeks. HHI trending, HSI range bound


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone been looking at the HSI/HHI spread. been doing some f'in funny stuff last few weeks. HHI trending, HSI range bound




spoke to your boy boofis last night quickly. hes working hard do constructive things and building a future. happy with the mrs. happy with life. not even thinking about trading and the screens.

I asked him how that felt.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> working hard do constructive things and building a future. *happy with the mrs. *happy with life. not even thinking about trading and the screens.




Oh that sounds terrible.........


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone been looking at the HSI/HHI spread. been doing some f'in funny stuff last few weeks. HHI trending, HSI range bound




Yeah i noticed that one day last week....the spread is more volatile lately. I'd love to post a chart but i'm afraid Ninja might have kittens if i whip the customized spread indicator on IB data

I could plot it once i disconnect for lunch...


----------



## CanOz

Here's the spread, the last three months including the ATR(14) which has clearly increased as the HHI has outperformed the HSI. Why is that anyway... Why would the HSI underperform when its only partially weighted with HHI components? Is that due to a general route of emerging market assets as well as China?


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Here's the spread, the last three months including the ATR(14) which has clearly increased as the HHI has outperformed the HSI. Why is that anyway... Why would the HSI underperform when its only partially weighted with HHI components? Is that due to a general route of emerging market assets as well as China?




Shouldn't you plot the ratio rather than the spread?

HSI trades at around 21000, HHI at ~9000. Spread = 12000, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.

Both falls 10%. HSI = 18900, HHI = 8100. Spread = 10800, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.

So the spread changes from 12000 to 10800 while both indices simply moved by the same percentage wise... and just because the spread has reduced doesn't mean HSI has underperformed.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Shouldn't you plot the ratio rather than the spread?
> 
> HSI trades at around 21000, HHI at ~9000. Spread = 12000, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.
> 
> Both falls 10%. HSI = 18900, HHI = 8100. Spread = 10800, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.
> 
> So the spread changes from 12000 to 10800 while both indices simply moved by the same percentage wise... and just because the spread has reduced doesn't mean HSI has underperformed.




I can only plot the price difference. Maybe TH can plot the ratio with his proprietary trading tools, but Ninja is quite limited unless you can code.


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> I can only plot the price difference. Maybe TH can plot the ratio with his proprietary trading tools, but Ninja is quite limited unless you can code.




Don't worry about the plot. Think about the maths and whether it makes sense. It's pretty important when you are trading spread directionally to understand what you are actually trading.

A quick glance shows that HSI has gone from a recent high of 23000 to 21500 (6.5%), while HHI has gone from ~10000 to 9230 (7.7%). So the HHI has indeed underperformed, contrary to the observation you've made based on the spread. 

Over the same period, the spread has gone from 13000 to 12300. If you long the spread thinking China should fall more than HK, you'd be trading the wrong direction. 

Anyway... we have the making of a massive black Monday imo. And it'd be time to buy probably looking for a highly close by Friday.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Anyway... we have the making of a massive black Monday imo. And it'd be time to buy probably looking for a highly close by Friday.




Nice one. Will be waiting and ready to throw my  into the mix.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Don't worry about the plot. Think about the maths and whether it makes sense. It's pretty important when you are trading spread directionally to understand what you are actually trading.
> 
> A quick glance shows that HSI has gone from a recent high of 23000 to 21500 (6.5%), while HHI has gone from ~10000 to 9230 (7.7%). So the HHI has indeed underperformed, contrary to the observation you've made based on the spread.
> 
> Over the same period, the spread has gone from 13000 to 12300. If you long the spread thinking China should fall more than HK, you'd be trading the wrong direction.
> 
> Anyway... we have the making of a massive black Monday imo. And it'd be time to buy probably looking for a highly close by Friday.




Yeah, i realize that if you're going to trade the spread then you need to figure in the price ration as well as an allowance for volatility. Then you end up trading a quantity of contracts to reflect the best spread. Most of my calendar spreads are 1:1.

Thanks for explanation anyway SKC.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

We are seeing more volatility in all types of market. Even in volatile markets some sectors, commodities, currencies, stocks and markets could outperform others. On Friday Indonesian market was a clear winner in the Asia and Pacific Region. It went up by more than 3%. Argentinean market in South America too had a good day. Markets in India, Pakistan and were steady.  Nikkei fell more than 3%. There could be some bull markets in South Asia, South America and East Asia sooner than later due to new development.

We have to wait and see effects of increased OCR (The Official Cash rate) in New Zealand. There could be short term support for NZD. It also could affect export sector negatively if NZD stay high. Despite increase in interest rate still I maintain my bearishness on NZD. Sooner than later other developed markets too will increase their OCR. I believe interest rate policy could affect negatively or positively to the economy depend on the situation at that particular time.  There are so many ways to control higher housing prices than making use of interest rate. If interest rates stay very high in the short run we may see many mortgage defaulters. As a result of this scenario we may even see housing crisis in some countries. Because we should not forget about fragility of the housing market globally. In some situation interest rate could become mass of destruction.

In the Agri commodity market both corn and soya bean didn’t have strong support this week except wheat which had good support. Globally we could see more grain harvest in the second half of this year. Among commodity future contracts livestock futures are having less volatility and they are in a clear uptrend. Most of other commodities are having volatility and they are in down trend except sudden surge in few commodities due to short term factors. Despite short term Ukraine crisis Oil prices are weak.

In the meantime Ireland’s 10-year securities went up for a ninth week as the nation auctioned its first bonds since 2010.  

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Don't worry about the plot. Think about the maths and whether it makes sense. It's pretty important when you are trading spread directionally to understand what you are actually trading.
> 
> A quick glance shows that HSI has gone from a recent high of 23000 to 21500 (6.5%), while HHI has gone from ~10000 to 9230 (7.7%). So the HHI has indeed underperformed, contrary to the observation you've made based on the spread.




Here's the ratio......


----------



## CanOz

Margin-Debt Records Point to U.S. Stock Gains: Chart of the Day
By David Wilson



> March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Record amounts of borrowing to buy U.S. stocks may be a forerunner of higher prices if the past is prologue, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC.
> 
> The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fared after total margin debt at New York Stock Exchange member firms set records for five straight months, according to data compiled by Bespoke and Bloomberg. The period matches the length of the current streak, which started in September.
> 
> There were 11 instances between 1963 and 2000 when records occurred five months in a row or more, based on Bespoke’s data. In all but one case, the S&P 500 was higher three months after the fifth record. The exception occurred in the first quarter of 1994, when the index dropped 4.4 percent. The S&P 500 also had gains most of the time after six months and one year, as the chart illustrates.
> 
> “We wouldn’t go so far as to say that record margin-debt levels are a buying signal,” the Harrison, New York-based firm wrote yesterday in a report. Even so, history shows they “have not been a very good sell signal either.” About 25 percent of monthly totals since 1980 have been records, the report said.
> 
> The track record contrasts with concern expressed by Richard Fisher, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and others that record borrowing may set the stage for stocks to fall.
> 
> Margin debt is among indicators that are worth watching “very carefully so as to ensure that the ghost of ‘irrational exuberance’ does not haunt us again,” Fisher said in a March 5 speech in Mexico City. He was referring to a phrase used by the Fed’s former chairman, Alan Greenspan, in 1996 about the effect of investor sentiment on stock values.
> 
> ----------
> 
> Sincerely,
> David Wilson
> 
> Chart of the Day, Bloomberg News
> Stocks Editor, Bloomberg Radio
> 
> Author, Visual Guide to Financial Markets
> http://www.wiley.com/buy/1118204239


----------



## kid hustlr

i cannot take a trick at the moment.

was having a really good day then Westpac opened up their mouths and I got run over 

long week ahead!


----------



## havaiana

Markets trading kind of flicky this morning. Haven't really moved anywhere but have moved a lot and quickly, if that makes sense.

Not quite sure what to expect today, hopefully something happens cause I need to make up for my crap morning so far.


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> Markets trading kind of flicky this morning. Haven't really moved anywhere but have moved a lot and quickly, if that makes sense.
> 
> Not quite sure what to expect today, hopefully something happens cause I need to make up for my crap morning so far.




Yeah  Anyone have an idea what Mr Bot is up to on the Seng today..... F'in all over the place!! Up- Down-Up back down.... think he has a loose capacitor....


----------



## kid hustlr

Bonds are quite coz all the locals are trading the spi roll but the last hour or 2 its been pretty frantic price action a lot of bond buying going on.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah  Anyone have an idea what Mr Bot is up to on the Seng today..... F'in all over the place!! Up- Down-Up back down.... think he has a loose capacitor....




Looks like smash down day..... lots of vol.... if she sticks it will be a stinker..... hang on. 

:shoot:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Looks like smash down day..... lots of vol.... if she sticks it will be a stinker..... hang on.
> 
> :shoot:




lol....then straight back the other way 100 points


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> lol....then straight back the other way 100 points





Funny old day... good volume but we seem to be going nowhere after all that. 


I'm trying not to be a scalper but I've had 10 trades and half of them have been 3 tick winners ( because they were scratched!)

Though cannot complain only 1 loser.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Funny old day... good volume but we seem to be going nowhere after all that.
> 
> 
> I'm trying not to be a scalper but I've had 10 trades and half of them have been 3 tick winners ( because they were scratched!)
> 
> Though cannot complain only 1 loser.




You ever trade the HHI? I've been having some success on it...until the last 45 minutes....

Its a little thicker than the Seng, sometimes the fills seem easier. Its almost like the DAX


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> You ever trade the HHI? I've been having some success on it...until the last 45 minutes....
> 
> Its a little thicker than the Seng, sometimes the fills seem easier. Its almost like the DAX




No, very few contracts traded on that one. Its a bit more chewy. That seems to not suit me. Although I complain about the thin book on the HSI daily secretly I think I like it like that..... :whip


----------



## CanOz

I thought i'd put this here for us to enjoy....TH was that you?

VIX Trader Pays $8 Million on Bet Gauge to Rally 60% by May



> An investor paid about $7.95 million for a trade that will pay off if the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rallies at least 60 percent by May.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I thought i'd put this here for us to enjoy....TH was that you?
> 
> VIX Trader Pays $8 Million on Bet Gauge to Rally 60% by May




Nah I've stopped taking little trades....


----------



## CanOz

Bracket mode...nearly time for a directional day


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Funny old day... good volume but we seem to be going nowhere after all that.






CanOz said:


> Bracket mode...nearly time for a directional day




Following up from yesterdays volume. looks to be a gap and run directional day..... very rare.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, interesting how the HSI has taken out the bracket low but the HHI has yet to take out support at 9200. Pretty good battle going on in the opening swings!corn:


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Following up from yesterdays volume. looks to be a gap and run directional day..... very rare.




you suggesting theres a pretty big downside risk here?

Nikkei looks sick too fwiw


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> you suggesting theres a pretty big downside risk here?
> 
> Nikkei looks sick too fwiw




Fark! The markets are jumping over complete ranges of offers...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Fark! The markets are jumping over complete ranges of offers...




Yeah its the battle of the bots.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, wow, recorded that too! I've some some weird stuff on these markets but that's my first gap up during trading seemingly absent of any news...

hmmm, grind up...maybe a short opp later...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just LOL.

Who said Bots are a bad thing????!! I'm having a day out... and thats just 45 min....


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> Just LOL.
> 
> Who said Bots are a bad thing????!! I'm having a day out... and thats just 45 min....




Rub it in...


----------



## kid hustlr

just got me a free trial to have a look at the seng. not gonna trade it just want to see what all the fuss is about. if TH makes money cant be that hard.

edit is it 50 bucks a tick?


----------



## Trembling Hand

prawn_86 said:


> Rub it in...




Yeah I think I will.  Feeling good about myself.... I have been stuck between those two lines for months being too scared to put on new full volume. 




Now to build.....


----------



## CanOz

Here ya go...jumped the offers

[video=youtube_share;9X3ItMNf2yc]http://youtu.be/9X3ItMNf2yc[/video]


----------



## kid hustlr

yeah wow looks fun. in that clip looks like it actually went twice someone lifted the book then it quickly got lifted again.

Quiet time but HSI looks so this lots of 1/2 lotters around I assume if you have any type of size to do you have to just lift the book


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> yeah wow looks fun. in that clip looks like it actually went twice someone lifted the book then it quickly got lifted again.
> 
> Quiet time but HSI looks so this lots of 1/2 lotters around I assume if you have any type of size to do you have to just lift the book




Actually its rare to do size by hitting out against yourself like that. Think that was more a sweep to get it somewhere after all that opening volume was absorbed. IMO. If you traded size like that and got out like that every time you were wrong you would soon be back to trading 1/2 lots.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually its rare to do size by hitting out against yourself like that. Think that was more a sweep to get it somewhere after all that opening volume was absorbed. IMO. If you traded size like that and got out like that every time you were wrong you would soon be back to trading 1/2 lots.




yup fair point.


----------



## CanOz

Well now that we've got that pesky gap filled on the H - Shares can we please carry on our merry way!


----------



## notting

Markets were feeling a bit dizzy and drunk.
And went to bed with what it thought
Was a beautiful white dove.

It all just seemed so easy. 
And more easiness was expected to come.

Oh Janet!

Then it woke up

Morning dear - 




You haven't seen my testicles have you?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Just LOL.
> 
> Who said Bots are a bad thing????!! I'm having a day out... and thats just 45 min....




Yeah you actually know what you're doing. Have you ever felt like everything is against you at any point in your life? Or has everything gone super smoothly and successfully like it seems to with your trading, impressive


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah you actually know what you're doing. Have you ever felt like everything is against you at any point in your life? Or has everything gone super smoothly and successfully like it seems to with your trading, impressive




Sh!te Sam anit nofin easy in this world.

Most people who look like they have made it and done it easy have in fact failed a few 100 times before. Yet still pick themselves up, brush off he dust and bruises and then throw themselves into something again and again with 100% effort. While most just have half a whack, hit a rough spot and give up. 

Ya gotta enjoy the struggle to conquer the struggle.  :whip


----------



## havaiana

Tokyo on holiday today, no news, Friday..... fade everything?

Think it would take something unexpected in China today to move anything


----------



## CanOz

HHI wants to leap into a short covering rally but the HSI is cramping its style...


----------



## CanOz

I should have been thinking short once we failed to take out the high....the Seng wants to fill that gap now...


----------



## kid hustlr

any chance this seng opens gives a clue where this pmi number will come in?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> any chance this seng opens gives a clue where this pmi number will come in?




More likely to be opposite.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> More likely to be opposite.




had the 1m chart open on the seng.  doesn't look like a place for resting orders over that number


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> had the 1m chart open on the seng.  doesn't look like a place for resting orders over that number




OMG! That sets a new precedent for *crazy out of control*!! :eek3:


----------



## kid hustlr

yeah crazy stuff.

T/H my spiny senses are tingling here, horrid number and the equities have turned bid and now the treasuries and our bonds look sooo heavy.


not saying we wont turn around a fraction from here but just seem as if 'something is up'


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> yeah crazy stuff.
> 
> T/H my spiny senses are tingling here, horrid number and the equities have turned bid and now the treasuries and our bonds look sooo heavy.
> 
> 
> not saying we wont turn around a fraction from here but just seem as if 'something is up'




Apparently some dude from HSBC is saying, the more disappointing the economic numbers, the more chances of a targeted stimulating measures.

It's like much of pre-taper action when bad economic news = taper delay = equity rally.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Apparently some dude from HSBC is saying, the more disappointing the economic numbers, the more chances of a targeted stimulating measures.
> 
> It's like much of pre-taper action when bad economic news = taper delay = equity rally.




Yep we have had a month now of these poor China numbers and are 12-14% lower than when they started. The "surprises" are now being read as consistently bad enough for stimulus.


----------



## notting

It's interesting to be observing just how much worse than expected data they are allowing to come out in a row.
Usually they drip two negs out then a surprise positive to stem the blood flow.

Perhaps it is so bad that it's just not possible to hide it any more with government backed over building.

There will no doubt be stimulus at some point.  
As we all know they have reserves.

It's just how long they allow it to run down.

But in the end they will not be able to control it.

It's ridiculous that people try to think of possible scenarios trying to make out there is not a property bubble like the world has never seen before. It's so obvious, so in your face, it beggars belief!

What's unique about it is that it is not all credit so the pressure will not necessarily be on having to sell but simply on holding a bad investment forever which is what they will do, apart from the ones who get out first.

The hard part will be what to do next in order to fake growth because it aint going to be a consumer society.

So what will it be? A 1000 years of stagnation?


----------



## kid hustlr

Anybody got a website which has clock for all the major timezones in an easy to view manner?

Like imagine if you were sitting at a proper trading desk and you'd have all the clocks up on the wall saying 'Tokyo/china/sydnye/London/new York etc' im looking for one of those in internet web page form.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Anybody got a website which has clock for all the major timezones in an easy to view manner?
> 
> Like imagine if you were sitting at a proper trading desk and you'd have all the clocks up on the wall saying 'Tokyo/china/sydnye/London/new York etc' im looking for one of those in internet web page form.




Here is mine,

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/personalapplet.html?cities=240,195,102,179,248,136


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Anybody got a website which has clock for all the major timezones in an easy to view manner?
> 
> Like imagine if you were sitting at a proper trading desk and you'd have all the clocks up on the wall saying 'Tokyo/china/sydnye/London/new York etc' im looking for one of those in internet web page form.




May be something like this? It's a desktop widget.

http://addgadgets.com/clock/

And some old suff here

http://www.techsupportalert.com/content/best-free-multiple-timezone-world-clock.htm


----------



## CanOz

My versions of win7 have the gadgets already. You can have as many clocks as you like....


----------



## kid hustlr

handy ta.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> handy ta.




What did you end up doing? Doesn't every copy of Win7 have the clocks in gadgets?


----------



## kid hustlr

http://www.premiumdata.net/support/worldmarkettimes.php

that works pretty well for now. ill get something set up like T/H in time

Risk on in the markets!


----------



## CanOz

Sheeesh that 9780 level had me sweating for a bit....icebergs everywhere....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Well I dunno about anyone else but I thought the Dax was going to do the exact opposite to what it's done, thought the down push would keep going, but alas, plan b! Bit of short covering maybe?


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Well I dunno about anyone else but I thought the Dax was going to do the exact opposite to what it's done, thought the down push would keep going, but alas, plan b! Bit of short covering maybe?




I posted this on our chat....same thinking...



> The DAX is looking a bit bearish...having said that I'm long the open, as we saw a nice b pattern into yesterdays close and we're getting some short covering, but watching how we treat this current bracket nonetheless..


----------



## CanOz

Its like the DAX wants to drop but the FTSE keeps it going...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> I posted this on our chat....same thinking...




On our chat? Yeah I was half expecting some short covering too, but to me it seems fairly strong, 50% or so of yesterdays entire range seems like severe short covering


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> On our chat? Yeah I was half expecting some short covering too, but to me it seems fairly strong, 50% or so of yesterdays entire range seems like severe short covering




Jigsaw Chat...

Its rotating now, lets see if the VWAP holds it or its going to other side of the bracket...


----------



## CanOz

Actually Peter is starting up a Eurex Trading room soon too....Then maybe Asia next


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Jigsaw Chat...
> 
> Its rotating now, lets see if the VWAP holds it or its going to other side of the bracket...




Yeah how'd you get the login for that? Would like to see him tackle the DAX and Seng  :1zhelp:


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah how'd you get the login for that? Would like to see him tackle the DAX and Seng  :1zhelp:




The Chat? I just sent him an email...i think the chat uses your Jigsaw login anyways...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> The Chat? I just sent him an email...i think the chat uses your Jigsaw login anyways...




Yeah tried that but it was a no go, I'll shoot him an email


----------



## CanOz

Whats with all the big lots traded this morning on the HHI and HSI, they starting to roll or something?


----------



## CanOz

This little selloff on the HHI and the HSI could get interesting....yesty was an inside day and we've got a gap from 9700...load em'up!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> ....yesty was an inside day




Was it?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Was it?





Yes, on the HHI...


----------



## CanOz

I wonder if these guys are spreading thier short postions out against the HHI and driving the short covering rally in that even more? 

Given its the end of the month, whats the odds of a decent retreat at the end of the day or Monday??

China’s Stubborn Short Sellers Take on World’s Best Rally 



> The world-beating rebound in Chinese equities is failing to scare off short sellers.
> 
> The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which led declines among global equity gauges this year through March 20, has since rebounded 7.3 percent for the world’s biggest gain. Traders who piled on bets against the iShares China Large-Cap exchange-traded fund during the rout have maintained those wagers even as stocks jumped. Short interest hit a record 29 percent of shares outstanding on March 24 before slipping back on March 26 to match its level before stocks began rallying, Markit data show.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I wonder if these guys are spreading thier short postions out against the HHI and driving the short covering rally in that even more?
> 
> Given its the end of the month, whats the odds of a decent retreat at the end of the day or Monday??
> 
> China’s Stubborn Short Sellers Take on World’s Best Rally



There has been a funky arb bot running the rollovers for the last 6 months or so. We have runs that get way over-extended. I haven't completely figured out what the hell its does but Its something like running the heavier month aggressively while using the other three contracts to stay flat... 

Either way don't stand in its way..... or better still load up and go for a ride.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> There has been a funky arb bot running the rollovers for the last 6 months or so. We have runs that get way over-extended. I haven't completely figured out what the hell its does but Its something like running the heavier month aggressively while using the other three contracts to stay flat...
> 
> Either way don't stand in its way..... or better still load up and go for a ride.




And on and on it goes...... 




I love bots.... :robot2:


----------



## CanOz

...might see 10100 on the HHI if this bloody keeps up...


----------



## CanOz

Bloomy headline....







> Stock market, Australian dollar buoyed by China stimulus hopes




Should read....







> Stock market, Australian dollar buoyed by massive hedging as short sellers rush to cover their A**es!


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Bloomy headline....
> 
> Should read....




Ever look at spreading $A and HHI? Cointegration seems good on a casual glance.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

According to following link Asia Pacific is now the most undervalued region. 

http://news.morningstar.com/articlen...aspx?id=640171

Stock Market Outlook: Time to Play Defense

In a market leaning toward the overvalued side, investors must dig deeper to unearth buying opportunities.

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.


----------



## CanOz

MARKETWINNER said:


> According to following link Asia Pacific is now the most undervalued region.
> 
> http://news.morningstar.com/articlen...aspx?id=640171
> 
> Stock Market Outlook: Time to Play Defense
> 
> In a market leaning toward the overvalued side, investors must dig deeper to unearth buying opportunities.
> 
> Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.




That link is dead for me...


----------



## kid hustlr

upside push might be on s+p new highs


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> upside push might be on s+p new highs




LOL that is one nasty short squeeze!!! 

HSI, HHI, Kospi, China..... no volume either she aint gonna stop here.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Think I need a :alcohol:

Just got short at 22742ish with a nice hand full on the cash open. Then got a little worried about a blow off through the high so dropped a few contracts at 22724 to only find out I had just did the mother of all fat fingers!! and was now long close to full size!! Opposite to the direction I wanted...... 

But wait it gets better.......

Then 5 seconds after the fill my internet drops out!! WTF!!! :22_yikes:

Ring Ring, "Risk its me the idiot... close me out NOW!! "


:frown:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Think I need a :alcohol:
> 
> Just got short at 22742ish with a nice hand full on the cash open. Then got a little worried about a blow off through the high so dropped a few contracts at 22724 to only find out I had just did the mother of all fat fingers!! and was now long close to full size!! Opposite to the direction I wanted......
> 
> But wait it gets better.......
> 
> Then 5 seconds after the fill my internet drops out!! WTF!!! :22_yikes:
> 
> Ring Ring, "Risk its me the idiot... close me out NOW!! "
> 
> 
> :frown:




Ouch, hope they got ya out on that little bounce...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Ouch, hope they got ya out on that little bounce...




Yeah no real damage done beside to my heart. Though goes 100 points left on the table.....


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Think I need a :alcohol:
> 
> Just got short at 22742ish with a nice hand full on the cash open. Then got a little worried about a blow off through the high so dropped a few contracts at 22724 to only find out I had just did the mother of all fat fingers!! and was now long close to full size!! Opposite to the direction I wanted......
> 
> But wait it gets better.......
> 
> Then 5 seconds after the fill my internet drops out!! WTF!!! :22_yikes:
> 
> Ring Ring, "Risk its me the idiot... close me out NOW!! "
> 
> 
> :frown:




Ouch! I had my first fat finger last month as well. I was long 1000 shares of something, went to close it but put an extra zero on the order... so I ended up net short 9000 shares instead of being flat. And it was done at closing auction so I had to hold overnight. Thankfully it wasn't a particularly volatile stock, but I can still remember that chill-down-the-spine feeling when I discovered what I had done.


----------



## CanOz

I'm guessing you are having a better afternoon TH...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I'm guessing you are having a better afternoon TH...






Feeww. I nearly wet myself waiting for that break down to 22530! About time.... :flush:


----------



## MARKETWINNER

There are sell off in global tech stocks now. Technology stocks from Google Inc. to Yahoo Inc. has plunged. The Nasdaq Composite Index went down the most in two months. Biotechnology Index too dropped badly. Market players are moving away from overvalued sectors and stocks now.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wall-street-20140404,0,7001918.story#axzz2xy8jOLGh
Tech stocks, once highfliers, drop; Nasdaq sinks

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles...847804579479750391310982.html?mod=europe_home

Value Stocks Head Higher as Growth Companies Look Pricey.

Finally will there be 10% to 20% correction? 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikehelv...et-correction/

How to prepare for the Next Stock Market Correction

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## anny

Hi guys,

I am new in the forum as well as in stock investing. I am interested in some Canadian mining stocks. Has anyone had any experience in investing in Canadian stocks? Which online brokers do you use? I know there are brokers like IB or Etrade. I do not have much confidence in US dollars, so I try to avoid holding stocks in USD. 

I did do some research on some Canadian online brokers, currently I am interested in RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) direct investing and BMO InvestorLine, both backed up by big banks in Canada. Just contacted both brokers by email to see if they open trading account for Australians, have not got reply yet. 

My concern is that will it cost me a fortune to convert between AUD and CAD when I transfer money to and from Canadian online broker? Any suggestions?

Thanks a lot

Ann


----------



## CanOz

anny said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I am new in the forum as well as in stock investing. I am interested in some Canadian mining stocks. Has anyone had any experience in investing in Canadian stocks? Which online brokers do you use? I know there are brokers like IB or Etrade. I do not have much confidence in US dollars, so I try to avoid holding stocks in USD.
> 
> I did do some research on some Canadian online brokers, currently I am interested in RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) direct investing and BMO InvestorLine, both backed up by big banks in Canada. Just contacted both brokers by email to see if they open trading account for Australians, have not got reply yet.
> 
> My concern is that will it cost me a fortune to convert between AUD and CAD when I transfer money to and from Canadian online broker? Any suggestions?
> 
> Thanks a lot
> 
> Ann




Just open an account with Interactive Brokers Canada, if you are permitted as a foreigner to open an account with a broker then IB the way to go. They'll nominate a Canadian Bank, i assume. You going to need to assume some currency risk, but AUD/CAD would be better than AUD/USD i would think...


It is kind of funny that you see so much risk in the US dollar yet the majority of big investors don't, otherwise the cost to finance their huge debt would be sky rocketing...that hasn't happened YET...

Canadian banks used to be among the safest in the world, maybe not as profitable as Aussie banks but certainly safe by lending practices.


----------



## pavilion103

You trading FTSE on it?
Sorry I haven't read the whole convo.


----------



## avion

Stop buying TH... , c'mmon let's go the other way a little bit...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Stop buying TH... , c'mmon let's go the other way a little bit...




Yeah unreal huh....virtual one way street for the HSI, the HHI has been a little tamer and easier to fade, but i wasn't going to step in front of the HSI train today!!


----------



## CanOz

An opportunity or a deeper correction?

Dennis Gartman: ‘Scared’ and getting out of stocks for now



> The recent pullback for markets, driven by momentum-stocks in the technology and biotech space, has just scared one big bull out of the markets.
> 
> Dennis Gartman, who edits the Gartman Letter, told CNBC in an interview late Monday he recently ‘got scared’ and moved his equity exposure to near zero from 100%. He said he’s sticking with gold and cash to ride out the “long-awaited and much-needed correction.”
> 
> Gartman, who earlier this month was still holding his bullish stock stance, basically got freaked out by 15 minutes on the markets Friday. In that short space of time, he said the market turned like he’d never seen it turn before. Friday was quite a day, with heavy selling of biotech and Internet stocks, pushing the Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.82% to its worst day in two months. The S&P 500 SPX +0.38% and Dow industrials DJIA +0.06% also dropped 1.3% and 1%, respectively, that day.
> 
> “Friday morning I came back from the gym, and I was very comfortable: I owned aluminum, I owned coal, I owned money-center banks. Then between 11 a.m. and 11:15 a.m. it was as if they flipped the switch. Everything changed: stocks changed, bonds changed, gold changed, currency changed ”” the whole world switched,” recalled Gartman.
> 
> Gartman said he won’t be buying stocks again until they get much cheaper.
> 
> He said Friday’s action was worth noting because it was a so-called outside reversal day, when both the high and the low price for the day, for a stock or index, exceeds those levels on the previous day. If there is downside follow-through, as Barron’s explained on Monday, it can also signal a market top. The Nasdaq logged a 1.2% drop on Monday, and a 4.6% fall over three sessions, to mark the worst three-day loss since November 2011.
> 
> Reversal days are common ”” they happen, said Gartman. However, reversal weeks are rare, and reversal months are rarer still. “It’s really, really important … we don’t get outside reversal months, where you make a new high and close below the previous month.”
> 
> Over on Twitter, there was plenty of eye-rolling going on, given that on April 1, Gartman was touting a bullish stance on stocks to CNBC.
> 
> Gartman may be missing out on a bounce, though, according to some. Milton Ezrati, market strategist and economist at Lord Abbett, told CNBC he expects earnings won’t disappoint and will “show people that the world’s not going to come to an end, just because names in social media are blowng up.”




The VIX is _almost_ due for a 'pop' ...


----------



## notting

Remaining mindful that there is some floats of Chinese internet stocks going on in the US including Alibaba which is massive.  So some of the weakness will be fundies making room for that.


----------



## kid hustlr

Interesting time in the risk proxy currency that is the YEN/USD right now.



	

		
			
		

		
	
.

Line up pretty well with a big support level in the S&P as well

:microwave


----------



## MARKETWINNER

anny said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I am new in the forum as well as in stock investing. I am interested in some Canadian mining stocks. Has anyone had any experience in investing in Canadian stocks? Which online brokers do you use? I know there are brokers like IB or Etrade. I do not have much confidence in US dollars, so I try to avoid holding stocks in USD.
> 
> I did do some research on some Canadian online brokers, currently I am interested in RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) direct investing and BMO InvestorLine, both backed up by big banks in Canada. Just contacted both brokers by email to see if they open trading account for Australians, have not got reply yet.
> 
> My concern is that will it cost me a fortune to convert between AUD and CAD when I transfer money to and from Canadian online broker? Any suggestions?
> 
> Thanks a lot
> 
> Ann




When you deal with foreign markets it is better to have very good understating about currencies. Even if you make capital gain by investing in foreign stocks we may lose that if the currency rate is not favorable at that time. Did you try some local brokers and banks? They should be able to give some ideas. To be frank couple of years before I opened an on line account with Australian firm and I didn't operate it. In future I myself will personally meet brokers or anybody before trading with them.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Not only Nasdaq but also key Japanese index and major European indexes slid more than 1% on Friday. S & P 500 also had a worst week since January. Even commodity market hit badly on Friday. We saw weakness in agri, metals and energy markets on Friday. Valuation is the matter now. In the short run market may go down. In the long run market will go up. Stocks holding hedge funds too have come down. It looks like hedge funds have been forced to reduce their long positions. This could lead to further selling in stock and commodity futures markets in the coming weeks. As I said before this could be time to hide in attractive consumer staples globally. Consumer staples are ideal for all types of situations as long as we see great story, value and growth. Bad news for the market is good news for the dollar. Will this be reversal for both NZD and AUD? Is  a larger downturn ahead for NZD and AUD?  I reasonably think so.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/04/11/stocks-friday/7587759/
Stock plunge continues, Nasdaq drops below 4000

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Technology is currently experiencing a setback. Is the selling over or has it just begun? The stock market didn't have meaningful correction since 2011. Is broader general market correction underway? Since tech stocks also were market leaders. I believe a 10%-15% correction is possible. I also believe global central bank policies have largely been responsible for the current bull market in stocks. The coordinated efforts of global policy makers have so far provided for low interest rates and added liquidity. In short the sell-off in technology may be portending a further market correction. Definitely high-valuation stocks are under pressure now. High-growth companies, mostly in the tech and biotech sectors, led 2013’s rally and their valuations stretched to the extreme level. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## kid hustlr

startd pretty damn well today then got caught, then missed the stop, so got murdered, then throw in an error and ive just been murdred today in the end. in shock!


----------



## avion

Bonkers on Honkers!!!


----------



## barney

avion said:


> Bonkers on Honkers!!!




Lol ... nicely put.

JPY Housing Starts out at 3 pm ..........   First negative forecast for a while. Price action could get even more interesting


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Few months back and in 2013 Pakistan market was one of the star performers in global stock markets. Market players didn’t’ pay much attention to some markets in Asia like India. In addition we saw heavy selling in emerging markets as a result of speculation on tapering. Wise intelligent market players took advantage in these types of situations and some emerging markets like India are having great run now. We may see strong up trend in few more emerging and frontier markets. We can see some downtrend in Vietnam market now. Though current bull market is intact in DOW, S,& P 500 and Nasdaq  it is due for at least 10% correction. Overvalued tech stocks are more vulnerable. USD should start to go up especially in the second half of this year and we may see beginning of strong down trend for currencies such as NZD and AUD. These days Pound is rising against Euro. In addition to pound emerging currencies too are recovering now. In the mean time there could be some short term support for some commodities and some commodity prices could go down further when we see above average harvests and when inventory level improve further in the second half of this year.

http://qz.com/208437/indias-markets...on-rally-but-its-foreigners-doing-the-buying/

India’s markets are having a pre-election rally, but it’s foreigners doing the buying.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.


----------



## avion

Where is everybody!? Is there another tread discussing international markets...

What happened with Duck, TH etc... CanOz, are you still around?

Crazy markets, some good trading happening around, surely somebody must make a few bucks...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Where is everybody!? Is there another tread discussing international markets...
> 
> What happened with Duck, TH etc... CanOz, are you still around?
> 
> Crazy markets, some good trading happening around, surely somebody must make a few bucks...




I'm still around...for the time being. Back to sim though now...still love the practice though. Got the HHI and HSI up at the moment...


----------



## avion

Good, keep plugging Can. Have you heard from TH?


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Good, keep plugging Can. Have you heard from TH?




No not at all....he's vanished again...maybe he's taken some time off to do the Greenland trip.


----------



## avion

Nice. The only trip i can afford at the moment is local kebab shop:


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Nice. The only trip i can afford at the moment is local kebab shop:
> 
> View attachment 58037




Today has been a bit tricky...trading in value, range bound


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Among tech and bio tech sector, analysts are bullish on GW Pharmaceuticals plc (ADR). We have to wait and see how Xero is going to perform in the market in the short run. According to some market analysts Sweden, Canada, UK, Switzerland, U.S and Germany markets are negative because the stock markets in these countries are trading above historical means. For developing countries, Indonesia and Mexico are negative. On the other hand some market players like Japan, U.S., select Asian countries and the U.K. Some are expecting higher returns from Russia and China too.

Still I believe there are opportunities in individual stocks having value and growth though overvalued markets have some risk of correction especially towards second half of this year. Meat companies are not as exciting as biotechnology or social media stocks. But there are great opportunities. Even there are meat wars in ETF. SAFM listed poultry company in the USA was one of the clear winners in the meat sector and in the broader stock market there. Globally listed meat stocks could have strong run in the coming months. There are listed meat companies with attractive valuations in other parts of world as well. 

In the currency market The Canadian dollar traded at almost a one-month low The dollar gained against the euro after positive job reports. Finally it is time to identify emerging stocks, currencies and commodities. It is also time to pay attention to valuations. Rich valuations can be found in Stock markets which didn't have bull market yet. In the commodity market, Soybean production is expected to reach another record in 2014, Grain supplies are expected to keep rising in the coming year as well. The outlook for world grain supplies in 2014-15 has improved considerably. The market for dairy commodities is readjusting after exceptionally high prices in 2013 and early 2014. Dairy prices are falling now. NZD and AUD too will follow dairy prices.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## avion

When are we going to get out of this spaghetti!!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Emerging market returns in this year is not as bad and some thought. Turkey is the emerging markets leader, up 13.9% followed by India up 10.9 % during past three months. Russia has gained buy 10.7%. Brazil’s shares has risen an average 8.9 this year. Even in China it is up by 4.1 %. Some emerging and frontier markets have seen a huge flow of foreign investment in May. Since the start of last year among frontier markets Bulgaria’s market has soared 91%, Pakistan’s has jumped 88%, and Nigeria’s has risen 47% by May 2014. In the meantime Vietnam’s stock markets plunged by 15% between early April and mid-May this year. We can clearly see as long as value is there investors are willing to invest in frontier and emerges stocks markets now. Among emerging market stocks, selected Russian energy, banking and telecommunication stocks and Indian tea stocks could do well in 2014. 

I found following link posted on March 31St.

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_31/Time-to-buy-Russia-Jim-Rogers-1172/

31 March, 13:40

“Time to buy Russia!” - Jim Rogers

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/market-pares-gains-114062000445_1.html

Tea stocks were in demand.
In the mean time Germany’s DAX 30 index penetrated the 10,000 level and on Thursday. Rolls-Royce rallied by 8.1%.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## avion

I think they saw my post above... 




...and it was spectacular!


----------



## DeepState

MARKETWINNER said:


> Emerging market returns in this year is not as bad and some thought. Turkey is the emerging markets leader, up 13.9% followed by India up 10.9 % during past three months. Russia has gained buy 10.7%. Brazil’s shares has risen an average 8.9 this year. Even in China it is up by 4.1 %. Some emerging and frontier markets have seen a huge flow of foreign investment in May. Since the start of last year among frontier markets Bulgaria’s market has soared 91%, Pakistan’s has jumped 88%, and Nigeria’s has risen 47% by May 2014. In the meantime Vietnam’s stock markets plunged by 15% between early April and mid-May this year. We can clearly see as long as value is there investors are willing to invest in frontier and emerges stocks markets now. Among emerging market stocks, selected Russian energy, banking and telecommunication stocks and Indian tea stocks could do well in 2014.
> 
> I found following link posted on March 31St.
> 
> http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_31/Time-to-buy-Russia-Jim-Rogers-1172/
> 
> 31 March, 13:40
> 
> “Time to buy Russia!” - Jim Rogers
> 
> http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/market-pares-gains-114062000445_1.html
> 
> Tea stocks were in demand.
> In the mean time Germany’s DAX 30 index penetrated the 10,000 level and on Thursday. Rolls-Royce rallied by 8.1%.
> 
> My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.




Got any views/insight on the debt side of EM?  Both Local Currency and USD denominated...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

What a day was for global stocks markets. Asian markets too followed the U.S shares. Both Japanese and Hon Kong market were very active. Even European stocks climbed. Suzuki Motor rose in Japan.  Among Asian emerging market India market has a good day. There is a demand for banking, infrastructure and tea stocks in India. Among Asian frontier market finally Sri-Lankan market is showing some strength. This could be one of the markets to watch in the coming months. Just like India, there could be great demand for banking, infrastructure and tea stocks in the coming months in Sri-Lankan market. In addition consumer staples stocks will have great demand in Asian emerging and frontier markets specially for meat and beverages related stocks.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/07/02/markets-sri-lanka-stocks-close-idINL4N0PD2QM20140702

Sri Lanka bourse at over 1-yr high on Keells; Hemas boosts turnover, inflows

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/02/markets-india-stocks-close-idUSL4N0PD2GY20140702

India shares surge more than 1 pct to record high

In the meantime Corn futures dropped to a five month low. Soya bean also fell. We can expect favourable growing conditions in the U.S., the world’s top Corn exporter. Globally grain prices are under pressure now. This will lead to lower inflation.  In the currency market there is some strength for both NZD and AUD due to short term speculation.USD will start its bull journey sooner than later.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

The US dollar strengthened. DOW passed 17,000. Stock markets in Germany, France, Iceland and Ireland also had a good run.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/stock-futures-inch-higher-1404389747

Dow Jones Industrial Average Closes Above 17000 for First Time

Corn futures entered the bear market. Oil, gold, soya bean and rice all went down. Cattle futures extended a rally to a record. Good time ahead for listed meat companies especially for poultry companies globally. Prices for wholesale beef went up 24 percent this year. An all-time high of $2.4865 for a pound of beef reported today. Cattle prices have climbed 15 percent. We’re going to see beef as the rich man’s meat. This new development will lead to more demand for poultry. 

Among South Asian emerging and frontier markets, Pakistan stock market was in the limelight in 2013. Next we saw it in India. There is a great demand for defensive stocks and Tea stocks these days in Indian market. We are seeing some uptrend in Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) now. Even Bangladesh stocks made modest gains last week. We can see foreign fund entering market such as Colombo Stock Exchange and Dhaka Stock Exchange now.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/markets-sri-lanka-stocks-close-idUSL4N0PE2YG20140703

Sri Lanka stocks hit over 13-month high on financials, foreign buying

http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/2014/06/28/41861

Share prices end higher

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

If we analyse global markets there is a demand for consumer staples stocks now. Lower grain prices will benefit European and American Food processing companies in the coming years. As I expected grain prices are falling rapidly now. What a week was for commodity market. Soybean futures posted the longest slump in 41 years. Corn fell to a four-year low. Other grains such as wheat, oat, rice and canola etc also slumped last week. Global soya bean and corn supply will climb in the coming years. The grain entered a bear market this month. SAFM was one of my favourites companies that I followed in bad and good times. Global poultry companies listed in other markets such as emerging and frontier markets too will have great run in the coming months and quarters. 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1277...new-lifetime-high.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Sanderson Farms (SAFM) Hits New Lifetime High

Among commodities selected soft commodities such as Tea and Cocoa and live stocks will maintain their uptrend. We will see rally in listed tea companies and tea related companies in India, Sri-Lanka, Kenya and other global markets due to favourable industry prospects.

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/nQ...n-tea-pri.html

McLeod Russel India sees profit reviving on rally in tea prices

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0PJ38120140708

Bangladesh tea prices up on strong demand for quality leaf

currently we can see strong tea prices for high quality tea in Sri-Lanka. Tea prices have picked up even at the Mombasa Tea auction in Kenya.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/emerging-markets-chocolate-lovers-boost-cocoa-prices-1404849640

Emerging Markets' Chocolate Lovers Boost Cocoa Prices

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

USA stock advanced despite Geo political crises. Lately among Asian markets, emerging and frontier market such as China and Sri-Lanka are showing some strength. Grain is in bear market territory now. Sooner than later commodity currencies such AUD, NZD and CAD too will go to bear market territory. Among commodities tea, coco and live stocks will have demand.  Listed Meat stocks are going to shine more in the coming quarters. These type of commodities have become emerging commodities now. In addition, there is some hope for aluminium too. In the mean time dairy producers will have lower margin as dairy prices remain under pressure. Fall of NZD is imminent.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...-problem-hits-us-chicken-supply-lifts-prices/

Roosters' fertility problem hits U.S. chicken supply, lifts prices

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## kid hustlr

Anyone in here got the data/ability to put together a market breadth type analysis of the S+P? Advance/Decline, 52 week high type stuff? Trembling Hand used to do it from time to time but he's MIA these days.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Anyone in here got the data/ability to put together a market breadth type analysis of the S+P? Advance/Decline, 52 week high type stuff? Trembling Hand used to do it from time to time but he's MIA these days.




i can do this kid, will have a go when i get home tonight...


----------



## qldfrog

Thanks Canoz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> i can do this kid, will have a go when i get home tonight...




How do you do it Can? Always wanted to do this too but couldn't find much on it, or anywhere to get the data.


----------



## CanOz

Here is the advance declime line, cumulative...and the 52 week highs, both compared the SPY...

In Amibroker with Premium Data you subscribe to the indicators, then you chart them using Price (foreign).

I'm not sure if this is exactly what TH did, but if you're looking for divergences then they're there...


----------



## kid hustlr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How do you do it Can? Always wanted to do this too but couldn't find much on it, or anywhere to get the data.




TH used to do it on ninjatrader I think. If you've got data for US equities I'd say its pretty easy to do. From memory there's a formula for 52 week highs on ninja so you'd just need to build your own formula which culminated it on each day. ie on the 20th July xyz stocks are 52 week highs. Wouldn't be that hard I would think.

The other one he used to like was the 10 day average of up stocks - down stocks. Once again if you have the data I'm sure its not that hard to whip a nifty little formula in ninja trader



CanOz said:


> Here is the advance declime line, cumulative...and the 52 week highs, both compared the SPY...
> 
> In Amibroker with Premium Data you subscribe to the indicators, then you chart them using Price (foreign).
> 
> I'm not sure if this is exactly what TH did, but if you're looking for divergences then they're there...




Thank's Can, super helpful.


----------



## kid hustlr

52 week high chart looks super sick. cumulative advancers still holding strong though


----------



## havaiana

The Seng looking a little bullish today


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe globally stocks with lower valuations will outperform the market. There could be some pressure on S & P 500, NASDQ and Dow in the short run. Still value stocks especially some consumer staples will have demand. Among Emerging and frontier Asian markets both China and Sri-Lankan markets will have some great value opportunities. Even in Bangladesh market there will be some opportunities.  Undervalued consumer staples will be the place to watch. We cannot simply ignore large population and number of mouths in Asia in the future. In addition to multi national companies operating in Asia, well managed locally grown companies will maintain their growth.  In the currency market US Dollar hit eight month high against Euro. NZ dollar could fall further in the coming weeks.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/4-consumer-staples-for-earnings-beats-earnings-esp-cm373579

4 Consumer Staples for Earnings Beats - Earnings ESP

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Outlook-for-Sri-Lanka-banking-system-stable--PR_302924

Moody's: Outlook for Sri Lanka banking system stable

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ongest-growth-since-1980-as-unrest-eases.html

Bangladesh Forecasts Strongest Growth Since 1980 as Unrest Eases

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

There may be another opportunity for bargain hunters and value hunters from the current global selloff in stocks. More investors will go behind value investment now. They will prefer undervalued markets, sectors, commodities, currencies and stocks to overvalued markets, sectors, commodities, currencies and stocks now. USD is an undervalued currency and NZD is number one overvalued currency in the world. Some markets including frontier markets are less correlated to current turmoil in markets and their coming bull markets are still intact as they didn’t have bull market yet. We didn’t see bigger selloff in markets such as Poland, Oman, Kenya, Sri-Lanka, Philippines, Romania, Tanzania, UAE, Jordon, Hungary, Brazil, Mexico, Iceland, Egypt and Bulgaria etc. Most of these markets were up or flat on Friday.

In the meantime oil is heading for the biggest weekly drop in 7 months. There is a sharp drop in soyabean prices as well. Among soft commodities quality tea and coffee will have demand and prices will appreciate accordingly. There were some supports for Gold as well.  

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-g...rcentage-gains-on-the-final-frontier-cm370552

The Global Guru: Double-Digit Percentage Gains on the 'Final Frontier

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...for-weekly-drop-as-u-s-data-boost-dollar.html

Asian Currencies Complete Weekly Drop as U.S. Data Boost Dollar

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-china-hydro-curbs-coal-imports-freight.html

Shipping Rates Drop as China Hydro Power Cuts Coal Need

Have a nice week end!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

What a Friday for DOW and S & P 500. DOW and S&P 500 are trading above 17,000 and 2000 respectively now.

Among emerging and frontier markets in Asia pacific region, we can see continuous strength in stock markets such Vietnam, Sri-Lanka and India. After some pull backs The Philippine Stock Exchange index added 13.26 points or 0.19 percent to close at 7,146.35, the highest finish for 2014 by 26th August 2014.Curently their index is trading around 7050. In the meantime after recent sell off Pakistan stock market went up strongly on Friday. We are seeing some strength in Chinese stock market as well. In the mean time the main index of the Nairobi stock market is up 15 per cent so far this year. Some of these markets still have legs due to attractive valuations. It is time to avoid extremely overvalued markets and focus on undervalued markets and undervalued assets globally.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/markets-southeast-asia-stocks-idUKL3N0QY3JQ20140828

SE Asia Stocks -Philippine shares retreat on rate outlook; Thai PTT drops

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## avion

Marketwinner, how are those emerging markets going, what's your take on Russia sanctions, USD is surging, do you see it continue? I am sensing quite a shift in the markets... Are we going to CRASH!?   Let's get this thread going again...


----------



## avion

*Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion
*

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...bet-on-the-sp-500-to-the-tune-of-1-3-billion/


----------



## avion

I guess the markets are only pricing in the end of the Fed bond buying. I am just amazed after so much printing the effect on inflation in US was virtually non existent. Is it true the US exports the inflation across the world (due to everything being priced in US$) thereby minimizing the impact on its own soil? Is the rest of the world subsidizing US? Now that BRIC countries have their own international reserve bank and China is agreeing to price oil with Russia in Yuan does that mean those countries are trying to limit US$ as a reserve currency? Is that a good thing? Don't know...


----------



## DeepState

avion said:


> 1. I guess the markets are only pricing in the end of the Fed bond buying.
> 
> 2. I am just amazed after so much printing the effect on inflation in US was virtually non existent.
> 
> 3. Is it true the US exports the inflation across the world (due to everything being priced in US$) thereby minimizing the impact on its own soil? Is the rest of the world subsidizing US?
> 
> 4. Now that BRIC countries have their own international reserve bank and China is agreeing to price oil with Russia in Yuan does that mean those countries are trying to limit US$ as a reserve currency?
> 
> 5. Is that a good thing? Don't know...




1. The US bond curve is being weighed down by increasingly easy monetary conditions in the EZ that are seeing negative yields in a range of countries over two year tenor.  This is also the case with Japanese liquidity looking for a home that generates something other than outright negative real returns.  There are other reasons that are influential too.  Perhaps another post.

The weighing down of the curve is contrary to the actions that would most likely be prevailing if the Fed was tightening as they are expected to do and US domestic conditions are on the trajectory they have currently found themselves on, without external monetary influences.

The end of bond buying by the Fed, in isolation, is more likely a catalyst for re-assessment of the weak outlook for US equities than it is for spurring another rally. 


2.  It is clearly present in asset inflation which is also harmful to an economy if not well handled.  The circumstances of this print were also very different to that for other debt monetization in history that did lead to high inflation on consumption goods.  Oils ain't oils. Prints ain't prints.


3. To the extent that tradeables are experiencing high inflation on US soil, inflation can be exported elsewhere.  This is a normal activity.  

The rest of the world actually subsidizes the US in financial terms due to the centrality of the USD.  However, the US has a price to pay for this exorbitant privilege.


4. There is a move on to break the link between oil and USD by trading it in currencies other than USD.  This is a key connection to the USD that gave it reserve status post the dissolution of the convertibility to gold under Nixon.  However, the specifics of the situation between Russia and China in relation to their long term energy contract are such that the direct impact on the USD is negligible.  It just cuts out double FX transitions that hold USD for less than a microsecond, in effect.


5. It would increase US borrowing costs and may reduce the borrowing costs of other nations.  There are many other considerations.  Nonetheless, the currency hub has moved from Sterling to USD in the last century.  The Euro was founded partly to be a balance against USD and Yuan is emerging as a major currency in the future.  Nothing terrible has occurred in the FX markets (on a global basis) - yet.


----------



## avion

Thanks RY, your reply is gold as usual...



DeepState said:


> The end of bond buying by the Fed, in isolation, is more likely a *catalyst* for re-assessment of the weak outlook for US equities than it is for spurring another rally.




In a nutshell probability of correction is strong, you would agree...? We are just waiting for the next catalyst..

I just find myself in constant struggle with how much all of this seems so darn artificial. Sky high equities without true underlying fundamentals, (despite rhetoric 'US economy is in the recovery mode'), the printing of money, China's ghost cities, etc, etc... Feels as if we are teetering on the wire. Compared to prior 1929 crash which was largely driven by market euphoria ('irrational exuberance' a'la Greenspan) today is driven by the governments and hence i feel it's far more serious. Soup kitchens anyone...?


----------



## avion

Honkers delayed/closed due to:


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Thanks RY, your reply is gold as usual...
> 
> 
> 
> In a nutshell probability of correction is strong, you would agree...? We are just waiting for the next catalyst..
> 
> I just find myself in constant struggle with how much all of this seems so darn artificial. Sky high equities without true underlying fundamentals, (despite rhetoric 'US economy is in the recovery mode'), the printing of money, China's ghost cities, etc, etc... Feels as if we are teetering on the wire. Compared to prior 1929 crash which was largely driven by market euphoria ('irrational exuberance' a'la Greenspan) today is driven by the governments and hence i feel it's far more serious. Soup kitchens anyone...?




Are you not trading short term though?


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Are you not trading short term though?




Welcome back TH!

Yes, i am. Only daytrading, no overnight positions. Still like to keep an eye on macro conditions which are unnerving sometimes to say the least. This big lie out there with the markets does makes me crazy enough to argue with everybody around me. At the same time it almost makes me feel guilty how good i feel by not having to worry about the exposure, and having the good night sleep is worth absolute gold. Love the trading just wish i was better so i could do it full time. Not quite there yet. While i maintain full time job i was able to trade HSI morning session in the past. Now i can't (the boss finally put his foot down..). So only can catch part of arvo session. So trying to track DAX with mixed results on sim so far. Miss the HSI big time.

You been away for a while... Anything worthwhile, done the Tibet, experienced ZEN, achieved higher level of self-awareness, become one with nature, dispensed with earthly needs for possessions...???

...or just had few beers every evening in some resorts with mates and girlfriend :bier: :band:


----------



## avion

Mind you, this 'big lie' has been going on for what... 5 years now, and some people made fortune out of it. If you were just passive index investor you would done well. So it's only a matter of perception. It's the $$ at the end that count, and i certainly being smartarse i was (am) got the ass end of it. One of the best bull runs in history and i decide i want to learn trading... naaah, investing is just so boring.... Sheeesh!! If it was not for this knowledge i have now i would become buddhist monk or join the army... polar opposites, who cares!

So the future is looking bright chaps, just in case i got you worried...

PS: Markets don't lie, i am referring mostly to fundamentals.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL


> “The market sees the letters ’Q’ and ’E’ combined with China and it’s Happy New Year to the money printers and that’s what the jump is,” Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Chatham, New Jersey-based Themis Trading LLC, said via phone. “They want the game to continue. They may not know how or why it’s happening but get some new QE money in there and that’s how the market reacts.”



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...xed-amid-tech-slump-before-fed-oil-drops.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> You been away for a while... Anything worthwhile, done the Tibet, experienced ZEN, achieved higher level of self-awareness, become one with nature, dispensed with earthly needs for possessions...???
> 
> ...or just had few beers every evening in some resorts with mates and girlfriend :bier: :band:




All of the above.


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> All of the above.




Ha, ha...., i truly, truly wonder what's in store for you in the near future, perhaps few years... Either be recruited for a hedge fund or start you own. What about your own prop shop? I know of a trader who started his own broking house. Or are you just content to plug along which is perfectly fine. (i am sure this theme was revisited in the past...)

Was reading story about Steve Cohen from SAC, recently renamed to Point72 after the accusation of insider trading (wasn't him). Took home 2.8 billion last year. He actually trades with his team around him. Low key management style and actually mostly trades. Simply amazing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Ha, ha...., i truly, truly wonder what's in store for you in the near future, perhaps few years... Either be recruited for a hedge fund or start you own. What about your own prop shop?




 God no. I'd have to buy a suit and actually commit to turning up each day and all for a pay cut..... I don't think so.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tightest Arvo range on the HSI for at least 90 days, even after the PBOC add some more funny money to the fire. 




Morning ses wasn't much either! end result? Whipsaw Willie!!!


----------



## DeepState

Trembling Hand said:


> Tightest Arvo range on the HSI for at least 90 days, even after the PBOC add some more funny money to the fire.
> 
> View attachment 59439
> 
> Morning ses wasn't much either! end result? Whipsaw Willie!!!
> 
> View attachment 59440




What do you make of the injection?

Does not appear to be anything related to solvency and appears more akin to a TLTRO arrangement.  Targeted stimulus. Scalpel rather than broadsword.  Arrangements have already been put into place for a similar purpose, if required, for the various local government financing bodies.  Surprising HSI did not express a view one way or the other.  Less than 1% of GDP in terms of monetary stim.  

Welcome to QE/Credit-easing/expanding-the-monetary-base China-style.


----------



## avion

'Alibaba IPO seen sucking money out of Hong Kong stocks'

'...Those stocks have suffered a pullback in recent days, he said, perhaps because some Hong Kong traders are selling them in order to ”” you guessed it ”” buy into the Alibaba IPO.'

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/al...of-hong-kong-stocks-2014-09-17?dist=afterbell


The show starts on Friday. Would you invest in highly regulated, censored, government strangled internet market... One change in policy and you are stuffed. But then again when did share price have anything to do with common sense... This will be interesting.


----------



## Trembling Hand

DeepState said:


> What do you make of the injection?




The junkies have been demanding another hit and they got a wiff of smoke from a second-hand pipe. Don't think they are happy with such a small response.

Considering the volume yesterday and tight range the jump higher was being very well capped by sellers. Either waiting for disappointment from last nights fed statement or pegging it for another go lower. Chinese stocks had an even worse reaction. They spent half the day in the red. It has been a strong run since May for the Seng on the back of the news about the stock link up with Shanghai. So hard to tell if the underlining Chinese worries are starting to be a concern or we are just taking a breather.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Considering the volume yesterday and tight range the jump higher was being very well capped by sellers. Either waiting for disappointment from last nights fed statement or pegging it for another go lower.




Well that mystery has been solved


----------



## avion

Good call TH. Next question: will 24140ish hold? My call: small bounce... and then another push lower...


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> The junkies have been demanding another hit and they got a wiff of smoke from a second-hand pipe. Don't think they are happy with such a small response.




I thought the Chinese usually inject some liquidity ahead of the 1 Oct national holidays week... so I really didn't think it was anything too much out of the ordinary :dunno:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What the hell was that? Thought I heard the squawk guy say something but didn't quite catch what it was, or was it not news/data?


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What the hell was that?




Whatever it was, I was unfortunately on the wrong side of it  ....


ps. At least I had the common sense to close my positions  .... this time


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Whatever it was, I was unfortunately on the wrong side of it  ....
> 
> 
> ps. At least I had the common sense to close my positions  .... this time




Yeah I had offers up above the market when it exploded, not quite high enough though, was around 80 ticks or so on the dax, it reacted like it was some news, but didn't catch what the guy said on the squawk, might have just been a big sweep, but he said something right when it happened, so not sure what triggered it.


----------



## captain black

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I had offers up above the market when it exploded, not quite high enough though, was around 80 ticks or so on the dax, it reacted like it was some news, but didn't catch what the guy said on the squawk, might have just been a big sweep, but he said something right when it happened, so not sure what triggered it.




AFAIK that spike was related to an ECB announcement regarding voting rotation for monetary policy meetings.

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2014/html/pr140918.en.html

Busy night!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

captain black said:


> AFAIK that spike was related to an ECB announcement regarding voting rotation for monetary policy meetings.
> 
> http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2014/html/pr140918.en.html
> 
> Busy night!!




Yes, that's what it was, he mentioned something about ECB and voting, cheers for the link. 

I think I need to read up on that stuff because I don't get why that would cause an 80 tick spike


----------



## captain black

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yes, that's what it was, he mentioned something about ECB and voting, cheers for the link.
> 
> I think I need to read up on that stuff because I don't get why that would cause an 80 tick spike




This piece from a CNBC article might explain it better:



> The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index shot higher in mid-morning trade on Thursday after the ECB said that members of its Governing Council would used on a rotation system. Crucially this means that Jens Weidmann, governor of the German Bundesbank and traditionally against aggressive stimulus measures, will sit out the meetings in May and October next year.
> 
> Traders from IG Markets told CNBC that this raised the possibility that a quantitative easing (QE) program could be announced in May next year, in his absence, and markets surged higher on the news.




http://www.cnbc.com/id/102011153

For European futures it's worthwhile to keep an eye on when ECB meetings/reports/speeches are coming up.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/events/calendar/mgcgc/html/index.en.html


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> Whatever it was, I was unfortunately on the wrong side of it  ....
> 
> 
> ps. At least I had the common sense to close my positions  .... this time




You weren't alone Barney! 

I had a !@#$% of a time trying to meet the margin thanks to my FSP failing to keep me informed of changes to their platform.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

captain black said:


> This piece from a CNBC article might explain it better:
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/102011153
> 
> For European futures it's worthwhile to keep an eye on when ECB meetings/reports/speeches are coming up.
> 
> https://www.ecb.europa.eu/events/calendar/mgcgc/html/index.en.html




Ahhh I see said the blind man! That explains it  

Yeah there's a lot on this week to keep an eye on! 

Thanks for the links captain


----------



## DeepState

skc said:


> I thought the Chinese usually inject some liquidity ahead of the 1 Oct national holidays week... so I really didn't think it was anything too much out of the ordinary :dunno:




I think that this was seen to be different because the injection was pushed into the major banks.  SHIBOR O/N and 1 week actually rose to indicate that this injection is expected to remain outside of the system in that it is expected to be lent out with funding coming in at favourable levels.  This is akin to TLTRO more than Open Market Operations where PBOC is providing (presumably) cheap finance to the majors for targeted lending.  It was also channeled via the medium term SLF rather than injected into the Open Market Operations mechanism where most liquidity style operations in the interbank market take place - at least in Developed Market monetary systems.

Such a move is a response to declining credit stimulus.  The targeting nature of the lending is the sort of thing you'd expect to see from a command economy and some would criticize this on the basis that the demand for credit is not satisfied via a market based method (what? Like the last seven years has been a great advertisement of that method).

This is a step up in monetary support mechanisms due to the targeted nature of it.  It directly impacts the narrow money base, whereas RRR movements impact the multiplier and lending more broadly.

If I was to read into it, this is what I see.  PBOC understands that credit is extended and wasted in significant ways.  A broad brush approach and one channeled through local governments has led to overinvestment in capital works.  Their pricing mechanism doesn't work because incentives are stuffed (unlike Greenspan's view of the world in relation to self interest...yeah).  So they need to support the economy and are doing so fiscally, but need monetary support.  So, like Chinese, they move to tighter lending and take a controlled deployment of resources.

You can take the view that this move is a concerning one because it indicates that PBOC is showing that credit is reaching tipping points.  Alternatively, it is a more targeted way of addressing falling credit growth and hopefully lifting credit quality of loans offered.

This is a big dollar move, but small monetary stimulus in the scheme of things (including to the recipient banks).  I would guess that they are 'crossing the river by feeling the stones' and will give this a whirl. So you could take the positive view that they are being proactive to a problem that seemed to have no solution other than a bad one.

A case of watch this space, I guess.  At least they are experimenting with new ideas in a measured way.


----------



## DeepState

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ahhh I see said the blind man! That explains it
> 
> Yeah there's a lot on this week to keep an eye on!
> 
> Thanks for the links captain




For this explanation (Governing Council etc.) to be reasonable you will need to explain why:

1. The Euro strengthened
2. German yield curve steepened and Italian short end was where it was a week earlier.

The Fed actually announced a more hawkish move which seems somewhat poorly reported and lost in the fact that there was no direct answer to the time frame for tightening in the speech.  The 'dots' for 2015 are unambiguously to the hawkish side since the June announcement.  Further, the Fed offered greater guidance on what policy normalization would look like. In relation to securities held in the SOMA, coupons and principle payments would not be reinvested. The rate of wind-down of the Fed SOMA was not really expected.  This all caused a surge in USD vs ROW. The yield curve popped upwards. As you would expect. Further, although growth expectations for 2015 were up slightly, the unemployment figures were not moved in a meaningful way, indicating that there is a belief that structural bounds might be closer rather than further (despite Janet Yellen arguing a balanced case in Jackson Hole recently) with pass through implications for potential growth. In combination, these do not offer a reason why markets in Europe would be up as the export channel is simply not that strong.

The ECB Governing Council argument does not fit.  Further the ECB announcement, on 4 Sept, that more stimulus was coming way was made with "A comfortable majority".  That is, without Germany's support.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell from a record. Asians markets were active on Friday. China and Sri-Lanka late starters to the current global market uptrend are showing gradual strength in their markets now. At least they have 20% upside potential. These are the two stocks markets to watch in the coming weeks and months as they have more value stocks. Even in other Asian markets such as Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Philippine and India also were very active. Investors are leaving gold and invest in stocks now. Asian food and hot beverages sector should outperform other sectors in the coming years. Asia’s growing demand for high quality food products will create opportunities for share market investors and private equity investors in the coming years. In addition there will be acquisitions opportunities in food and beverage sector in Asia Pacific region in the coming years. 

The U.S. Dollar Index advanced for a 10th straight week, the longest since at least March 1967. Grain prices are tumbling further. Finally Commodity currencies such as NZD and AUD also have started their bear journey now. Fall of NZD and AUD will accelerate further in the coming months and next year. 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-...amb-and-poultry-surges-ahead-of-weste/5570328

Asian demand for beef, lamb and poultry surges ahead of western markets

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nasty Monday,




They normally fail to follow through. I think I've said it a few 100 times mostly they are a buy but when they do keep on going they make for really bad weeks ahead.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Nasty Monday,
> 
> They normally fail to follow through. I think I've said it a few 100 times mostly they are a buy but when they do keep on going they make for really bad weeks ahead.




:bowdown:


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> :bowdown:




Not so sure yet skc. Still looks like a pretty weak response to the China PMI.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Not so sure yet skc. Still looks like a pretty weak response to the China PMI.




{Bowdown} retracted!

Yes it jerked me around pretty good. I am trying to put on some hedge for my long portfolio (with some index CFD shorts) and ended up short term trading them 

Hedging is hard! Unplanned random hedging is harder...


----------



## cynic

For a fast education on the merits of unscheduled hedging, may I, yet again, recommend the trading of that maniacal son of a bourse from lower Hades - the demonic DAX!!

Happily, I seem to have stumbled onto a new career path this morning!

I received a promise of payment for my non attendance/participation in a 3 day market trading course!

If only I'd known sooner, I'd have made a point of pursuing such career opportunities earlier and negotiated a healthy rate of remuneration in return for my non attendence/participation in as many trading courses as inhumanly possible!


----------



## skc

cynic said:


> For a fast education on the merits of unscheduled hedging, may I, yet again, recommend the trading of that maniacal son of a bourse from lower Hades - the demonic DAX!!
> 
> Happily, I seem to have stumbled onto a new career path this morning!
> 
> I received a promise of payment for my non attendance/participation in a 3 day market trading course!
> 
> If only I'd known sooner, I'd have made a point of pursuing such career opportunities earlier and negotiated a healthy rate of remuneration in return for my non attendence/participation in as many trading courses as inhumanly possible!




DAX doesn't really correlates to my portfolio I don't believe.

You can earn pretty good money by being a farmer not growing things.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...en-grass-nicholas-schoon-reports-1429787.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL

http://www.rattraders.com/methodology

[video=youtube_share;rgViYOGQnTs]http://youtu.be/rgViYOGQnTs[/video]

I'm wasting my time.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL
> 
> http://www.rattraders.com/methodology
> 
> [video=youtube_share;rgViYOGQnTs]http://youtu.be/rgViYOGQnTs[/video]
> 
> I'm wasting my time.




That's nothing.

They've already done it with turtles!


----------



## pavilion103

So what are people's thoughts on international markets. 

Big knock in Europe last night. 

DOW looks a little interesting too. 

Increased volatility may create opportunities.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> ...
> I had a !@#$% of a time trying to meet the margin thanks to my FSP failing to keep me informed of changes to their platform.




I sure am glad that my FSP found an interim work around last week. This enabled me to fund my account and hold my DAX shorts.

Although knowing the DAX, I may have typed too soon!


----------



## skyQuake

False break on the ES, looking for it to go lower.

Also, 6 out of 10 rats confirm the leg down.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> I sure am glad that my FSP found an interim work around last week. This enabled me to fund my account and hold my DAX shorts.
> 
> Although knowing the DAX, I may have typed too soon!




I did indeed type too soon!

My DAX shorts just got Draghi'd again!!

Every time that !@#$%^& opens his gob my accounts cop a hammering. I hope he succumbs to a very nasty case of chronic laryngitis!


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> I did indeed type too soon!
> 
> My DAX shorts just got Draghi'd again!!
> 
> Every time that !@#$%^& opens his gob my accounts cop a hammering. I hope he succumbs to a very nasty case of chronic laryngitis!




Yep the pleasures of trying to make a buck hey!! In spite of having a good start and the right plan for a gap fill I just got spanked on god knows what other than a good trap when the HSI closed the ON gap and keep going.....


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep the pleasures of trying to make a buck hey!! In spite of having a good start and the right plan for a gap fill I just got spanked on god knows what other than a good trap when the HSI closed the ON gap and keep going.....




Ouch!


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Ouch!




Yep..... just another day.. just another good day for the broker....


----------



## pixel

This morning I came across this assessment by the Thomas Bulkowski


> 09/12/2014 Some of the indices are headed lower, clearly, while others are still trying to make up their minds. Overall, I expect weakness over the next two weeks. That will put us into October. We could resume an upward move then if Q2 earnings show improvement.



http://thepatternsite.com/

By the looks of today's record, he definitely got the first part right:


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bit of unrest in Honkers this morning. Should make for a hot open. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...e-rally-illegal-urge-protesters-to-leave.html


----------



## peterfootwork

tech/a said:


> That's nothing.
> 
> They've already done it with turtles!




Rats = HFT , Turtles = Hedge/Super funds.

[video]https://gataplex.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/mindblown_st.gif[/video]


----------



## Trembling Hand

Who would be the guys stuffing the bid today on the XINA50 and HSI?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Who would be the guys stuffing the bid today on the XINA50 and HSI?




I noticed a bit of that on the SPI this morning too...every time they spoofed the market higher it got sold into...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> I noticed a bit of that on the SPI this morning too...every time they spoofed the market higher it got sold into...




Usually can only hold for so long though...


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Usually can only hold for so long though...




We just popped higher actually, bit of a wedge there, still thinking we test 5233 before we get any short covering really...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> We just popped higher actually, bit of a wedge there, still thinking we test 5233 before we get any short covering really...




Yeah was referring to the selling you mentioned


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah was referring to the selling you mentioned




Yeah got that, it was like someone got shook out...


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Who would be the guys stuffing the bid today on the XINA50 and HSI?




Who, really?? Instos, algos...

So, you are implying more selling ahead?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Who, really?? Instos, algos...
> 
> So, you are implying more selling ahead?




This guy.....


----------



## avion

..he, he... very good TH. Another way to crush morale in Honkers i guess. Business elite seem to be supporting him as expected. What a mess.


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> ..he, he... very good TH. Another way to crush morale in Honkers.




Hey? They were bids. Being supported not sold.


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey? They were bids. Being supported not sold.




My bad, by 'stuffing' i assumed *phantom* bids which translates into cumulative volume on bids much higher than ask and vice versa. In my experience price tends to gravitate towards higher cumulative volume. The bids get crushed like in a bowling alley. Quite contrary to intuitive expectation. You would think higher number of bids we are going up but end up going in opposite direction. There was a bloke in Europe that built his entire trading career on that observation called The Flipper.

Got a polish up on my jargon if i want to engage with you hot shot traders :


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> My bad, by 'stuffing' i assumed *phantom* bids which translates into cumulative volume on bids much higher than ask and vice versa. In my experience price tends to gravitate towards higher cumulative volume. The bids get crushed like in a bowling alley. Quite contrary to intuitive expectation. You would think higher number of bids we are going up but end up going in opposite direction. There was a bloke in Europe that built his entire trading career on that observation called The Flipper.




Oh no I find that as well. Volume in the ladders will attract action rather than repel. But what I reckon I was seeing was an accumulation algo running. They gents were giving their all to sell it down and in spite of some decent volume thrown onto the bids it held up pretty well. 

Then again I did read zerohedge yesterday so i would be thinking conspiracy! :hide::vader:


----------



## avion

I see, thanks. Mind you, it is sitting on fairly strong support atm... hence the buying algos perhaps. It seems to be shaping up for a volatile period. Looks like you are in for a good times after a few flat days you had....

Forgot it is a two day holiday in Honkers...


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Then again I did read zerohedge yesterday so i would be thinking conspiracy! :hide::vader:




... have you got the link to the article? I wonder how will this pan out. At the end Xi is the guy with the gun.


----------



## DeepState

Does someone have any details about the nature of restrictions for loans to property developers and property itself via the banking system in China?  Further, to the extent that the total funding needs which are not available via the official banking system moves into shadow banking as essentially mezz debt, in the even of inability to roll the mezz, what happens - in reality?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> But what I reckon I was seeing was an accumulation algo running. The gents were giving their all to sell it down and in spite of some decent volume thrown onto the bids it held up pretty well.




Don't stuff with the Global Macro gents hey? They always get what they want...........


----------



## cynic

Holidays are supposed to leave one feeling refreshed! 

However, given that this NFP night coincides with a holiday closure of the DAX, my currently open DAX positions might be feeling somewhat less than sprightly when trading resumes next monday!


----------



## noirua

UK trading and the rest of Europe excluding Spain:

On Monday 6th October 2014, most European exchanges including those in the UK will change from a 3 day standard settlement to 2 days. 

The European Commission has published regulations aimed at harmonising the rules for Central Securities Depositaries operating in Member States. These industry-wide changes are designed to improve efficiency within the settlement process and provide a sounder financial system across Europe.

European exchanges with the exception of Spain will be moving to a two day standard settlement period from 6th October 2014. Standard settlement for Spanish equities will remain T+3.

Limit orders placed on the impacted exchanges before 6th October 2014 will be amended on your behalf, from T+3 to T+2 settlement.

From 6th October 2014, the standard settlement period for trades on the impacted exchanges will change from T+3 to T+2. This means that both purchases and sales will settle one day faster than they do today. Extended settlement such as T+10 is not impacted by these industry-wide changes to standard settlement.


----------



## DeepState

Anyone have colour on the FTSE 'flash' dumping at Japan open (11am ESDT)?


----------



## skyQuake

DeepState said:


> Anyone have colour on the FTSE 'flash' dumping at Japan open (11am ESDT)?




posted about it in the other thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26509&page=179&p=844096#post844096

Since everything happened about a second after the open, it could be stops, or someone was a fraction too late in putting orders into the opening match...


----------



## DeepState

skyQuake said:


> posted about it in the other thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26509&page=179&p=844096#post844096
> 
> Since everything happened about a second after the open, it could be stops, or someone was a fraction too late in putting orders into the opening match...




Thanks SQ.  However, I'm still puzzled.  This incident occurred at TSE open, not FTSE open.  Nothing like it occurred for other major markets even Japan or Australia  Something happened at TSE open to smash FTSE whilst it was out of session.  Stops can be hit anytime, why then? There was no opening match for FTSE at that time.

It has the look of a major order hitting it.  If not stops then phat finger?  Wanted to sell TSE not FTSE?  Wow..could be.


----------



## DeepState

DeepState said:


> Thanks SQ.  However, I'm still puzzled.  This incident occurred at TSE open, not FTSE open.  Nothing like it occurred for other major markets even Japan or Australia  Something happened at TSE open to smash FTSE whilst it was out of session.  Stops can be hit anytime, why then? There was no opening match for FTSE at that time.
> 
> It has the look of a major order hitting it.  If not stops then phat finger?  Wanted to sell TSE not FTSE?  Wow..could be.




Uhhh. Yeah, like you said.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

New lows for this year on the DAX tonight, we've gone through the March/August lows, FESX hasn't yet though, and obviously ES is no where near it.


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> New lows for this year on the DAX tonight, we've gone through the March/August lows, FESX hasn't yet though, and obviously ES is no where near it.




The glorious DAX! 

Casually drops a little over 10% in just a mere few weeks. 

Fortunately there is a limit to how far this can go! 

Just another 8800 points to go before the DAX is unable to go lower!! (Wotcha gunna do then ey, DAX?!)


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

cynic said:


> The glorious DAX!
> 
> Casually drops a little over 10% in just a mere few weeks.
> 
> Fortunately there is a limit to how far this can go!
> 
> Just another 8800 points to go before the DAX is unable to go lower!! (Wotcha gunna do then ey, DAX?!)




LOL. It's likely to do a complete turn around now that it's gone to yearly lows and head straight back to 10K, just to catch people out, that's it's favourite thing to do  :shoot: :bananasmi


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> LOL. It's likely to do a complete turn around now that it's gone to yearly lows and head straight back to 10K, just to catch people out, that's it's favourite thing to do  :shoot: :bananasmi



Yes!! It's played that trick several times this past year, however, if you know the DAX well, you'll have probably noticed that it's a lot more than just a one trick pony! 

When everybody catches onto its current behaviour, its tendency is to then morph into an entirely different beast.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

What a week for global stocks market? We saw market drop and volatility not only in European market but also in the USA and Asia pacific region. The S & P 500 index fell 3.1 percent for the week. I believe there may be support at 1,900 for S & P 500. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/10/us-markets-stocks-idUSKCN0HZ0ZQ20141010

Chipmakers lead Wall St. selloff; S&P lowest since May

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2025285-investors-take-refuge-in-large-cap-consumer-staples

Investors take refuge in large cap consumer staples

Zack Industry Rank

Among consumer staples The Food – Meat Products industry is the best placed with a Zacks Industry Rank #14, which places it in the top 1/3rd of the 260+ industry groups. It is followed by Beverages with a Zacks Industry Rank of #88 and #43, respectively.

Iran is going to sell its oil to Asia in November at the biggest discount in almost six years, matching cuts by Saudi Arabia. So Iran has matched Saudi Arabia by cutting oil prices. Gold prices could fall further in the coming months. In the meantime corn and soya bean prices are plummeting due to expected bumper crop globally.  The expected record corn and soybean harvest will be slightly bigger than previously estimated.

Among currencies both AUD and NZD are depreciating against USD and their bear journey will start sooner than later. 

Overall there are still some opportunities in global markets and this is the time to rotate sectors.  Overvalued currencies, commodities, sectors, stocks and markets should replace with undervalued currencies, commodities, sectors, stocks and markets now. Current selloff will create another opportunity as well. Asian Frontier markets are the places to watch in the coming months specially markets which are due for great uptrend. In sector wise Asian consumer staples sector will have growth more than other sectors in the coming years due to increased population in Asia. They will eat more protein such as meat and egg and will drink more coffee, tea and milk in the coming decade. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What a great trend day on the DAX so far, looks to have finally found a pause at the moment but just been chugging away all evening, anyone been riding some of it? I've been jumping in and out, doing okay. Going to need to print this one off and add it to the trend days pile I think. Need to try and find a way to anticipate the type of day better, I don't feel very good in those areas yet, was one of the main things that great traders have all said, try and get an understanding of what kind of day we are going to have. Where to start? 





Wonder if this will be the high of the week being set today, looking on the daily we are to new yearly lows, this might be the run back up to test, then down into the weekend. We'll see


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI doing the WTF trade again?


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> HSI doing the WTF trade again?
> 
> View attachment 59822




4 minutes of vertical with Volume.
With a massive exhaustion.
You'd have been all over it!
And its not over yet long.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> 4 minutes of vertical with Volume.
> With a massive exhaustion.
> You'd have been all over it!
> And its not over yet long.




Actually it chopped me up a bit.  

Smashed on shorts at or about A, B and C! Wasn't until I got one to stick at D and then again at E was I able to fix up my mess.




Not that unusual when out of nowhere it runs 300 points in 30 minutes.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it chopped me up a bit.
> 
> Smashed on shorts at or about A, B and C! Wasn't until I got one to stick at D and then again at E was I able to fix up my mess.
> 
> View attachment 59825
> 
> 
> Not that unusual when out of nowhere it runs 300 points in 30 minutes.




Interested TH, did you/can you or do you usually anticipate big moves or is it more of the reaction to it afterward like a fade, instead of seeing it coming? ie. were you expecting something like that to happen today? I kinda guess you're always expecting stuff like that with honkers.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Interested TH, did you/can you or do you usually anticipate big moves or is it more of the reaction to it afterward like a fade, instead of seeing it coming? ie. were you expecting something like that to happen today? I kinda guess you're always expecting stuff like that with honkers.




I was expecting a push up to flat or a bit past but because of yesterdays large move I couldn't find much in the way of push down into support to get long, outside the first minute of the day, which I missed. So my plan on the day was good but they just gave me nothin' to play with. 

The drop back down just befor and after arvo on the other hand.......


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> I was expecting a push up to flat or a bit past but because of yesterdays large move I couldn't find much in the way of push down into support to get long, outside the first minute of the day, which I missed. So my plan on the day was good but they just gave me nothin' to play with.
> 
> The drop back down just befor and after arvo on the other hand.......




Ok cool, do you ever just jump in straight on open in that case like today in case you don't really get a chance otherwise, or is it too risky? I often find that on the DAX it will have a little run the opposite way(even if it's just a little spike up on one or two bars) before heading towards a gap close, or at least an attempt to.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it chopped me up a bit.
> 
> Smashed on shorts at or about A, B and C! Wasn't until I got one to stick at D and then again at E was I able to fix up my mess.
> 
> View attachment 59825
> 
> 
> Not that unusual when out of nowhere it runs 300 points in 30 minutes.




Seems the volume picked up right before the actual move up, was this some u saw or some thing you look for in anyway, try to understand why I'm asking. It's more of a "Is this the way you trade technique " Because if it was that would be a good method. Techa always mentions momentum ... volume in this case was the momentum indicator.
Amazing you held on to come out on top .. nice


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ok cool, do you ever just jump in straight on open in that case like today in case you don't really get a chance otherwise, or is it too risky? I often find that on the DAX it will have a little run the opposite way(even if it's just a little spike up on one or two bars) before heading towards a gap close, or at least an attempt to.




Yeah if something is setup just right from the start but I'm doing it less and less. Its really thin and was ok if you are only looking for a few contracts but .....

Also there is so much on offer during the day with these moves I don't want to force it and start the day 400 ticks down in the first 5 minutes just getting chopped to buggery on craziness...... Like I did a few times last week.... 

Hows this HSI going? Up 400 points then right back down. Too much fun!


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> Seems the volume picked up right before the actual move up, was this some u saw or some thing you look for in anyway, try to understand why I'm asking. It's more of a "Is this the way you trade technique " Because if it was that would be a good method. Techa always mentions momentum ... volume in this case was the momentum indicator.




Nah that is just the pic a little screwy. Volume came with the move.



	

		
			
		

		
	
..



dlineinvestor said:


> Amazing you held on to come out on top .. nice




Oh no, I was hitting the liquidate button like it was a game of snap. :twak:

I just also re-entered each time until it stuck.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah that is just the pic a little screwy. Volume came with the move.
> Oh no, I was hitting the liquidate button like it was a game of snap. :twak:
> I just also re-entered each time until it stuck.



Good one ..  
game of snap, funny I've spilt my coffee doing just that in those  wtf moves


----------



## Trembling Hand

Speaking of good ones,

*Beware…………………………….. it’s Correction Twitter!*

http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/10/13/beware-its-correction-twitter/



> 10. Scary sh*t will be heavily retweeted. This is a guarantee – the scarier headlines will have the most RTs. Human beings have evolved, over the course of hundreds of thousands of years, through the natural selection of specific traits that aid in survival. One of those traits is alarmism. The Neoliths who saw something and said something when relaying risks back to the tribe were the ones who lived longed enough to pass on their genes. The ones who kept quiet about terrifying stuff like volcanoes and sexually aggressive wooly mammoths didn’t pass on their DNA at all, they were melted alive or mammoth-raped. When you think about it, what we are, as a species, is the distillation of the loudest screamers and most easily frightened people who ever lived. Of course we’re gonna retweet Zero Hedge and John Mauldin links!
> Being aware that this is the social media environment you’re going to be in for now is half the battle. The other half is being able to contextualize it without falling into the rabbit hole entirely.




Perfect!!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah that is just the pic a little screwy. Volume came with the move.
> 
> View attachment 59830
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ..
> 
> 
> .




Not what the ONE MINUTE chart shows.
I think it was telegraphed.
Was all over in 4 min but momentum kept
Going where you were shorting it.

I'm a builder your a prop trader.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Not what the ONE MINUTE chart shows.
> I think it was telegraphed.
> Was all over in 4 min but momentum kept
> Going where you were shorting it.




Here is the one min,





Are you saying the volume was telegraphing the move before the bar I have marked? For me once it started it had a clear run up to and beyond the gap close but could of just as easily swung back 50 points the other way so I just stepped aside for that fast 4 min period. I don't chase strength on the HSI unless I already have a position. Way too easy to get pushed out on a swing back.


----------



## tech/a

No

The first bar would have flown up to and beyond short term resistance.
An aggressive trader may have initiated a trade on that bar.
The next bar would also have flown through short term resistance and Id have thought
one would have initiated on that bar at least.
The 4th bar is ultra high volume and as is pretty normal with these bars it indicates a reversal
and as such a closing of the trade.

Plenty of points in that move.

Edit:
The final impulse move on the bar between 13.30 and 13.45 is also very high volume and 
indicates the turn around at the time you got on.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I believe still some markets have their legs. There will be opportunities in market pullback time to time.  Selected emerging and frontier markets in Asia and South America region could have more growth in their stock markets in the coming quarters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/markets-emerging-idUSL2N0SC1XY20141017

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam markets rebound as global markets recover

http://money.cnn.com/2014/09/10/investing/argentina-stock-market-gains/

Sizzling: Argentina's stock market is up 100%

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I found very interesting link.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/...r-bull-market/

A Stock Market Pullback Should Fuel The Next Leg Of This Secular Bull Market

Among commodities we may see further weakness gold and grain prices in the coming months. On the other hand there could be demand for emerging commodities in the coming years. As I expected oil is trading around $80 per barrel now. USD should become number one bullish currency in the world toward end of 2015. On the other hand currencies such as NZD, AUD could fall further toward end of 2015 and in 2016.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...-positive.html

Australian Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise After ECB Bank Tests

I believe it is time to identify next winning markets, sectors, commodities and currencies globally. It is also time to avoid overvalued markets, sectors, commodities and currencies. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.


----------



## Wysiwyg

DOW up massive on the futures. All time high.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Listening to Bloomberg radio, those seppo's are all back slappin', figjams. America is great, I am great. Planet America forever. Boom Boom.


----------



## barney

Wysiwyg said:


> Listening to Bloomberg radio, those seppo's are all back slappin', figjams. America is great, I am great. Planet America forever. Boom Boom.




Time to short the next higher high


----------



## Wysiwyg

barney said:


> Time to short the next higher high



I shorted gold but the broker has opened the spread to $4. IC Markets are the thieves. 

p.s. they closed the spread back to 50c now after price bounced up.

pps that was an 8 dollar drop and I have had to close at B.E.. That is thievery from the broker.


----------



## barney

Wysiwyg said:


> I shorted gold but the broker has opened the spread to $4. IC Markets are the thieves.
> 
> p.s. they closed the spread back to 50c now after price bounced up.




That gives you the absolute craps


----------



## Wysiwyg

barney said:


> That gives you the absolute craps



You betcha amd I have to submit an e-mail complaint with trade details. IC Markets then contacts the liquidity provider to confirm spread variation and they get back to me. Filthy at the moment.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-gold-etfs-sank-after-the-end-of-qe-cm408555

How Gold ETFs Sank After The End Of QE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-31/gold-miners-plunge-toward-12-year-low-as-metal-drops.html

Gold Miners Plunge to 12-Year Low as Metal Drops

This is not the time for gold stocks. 

As I said before still global markets have their legs. What a week for global stock markets. Fortunately we escaped from October selling. U.S. stocks jumped, sending indexes to records, thanks to stimulus from the Bank of Japan. Europe and Asia pacific region stocks also jumped. 

Asian stocks markets could appreciate further over the next six to eight months.  Among frontier market in Asia, Sri-Lankan stock market could do well in the coming months. I expect selected sectors and stocks to outperform over the next six months given attractive relative valuations. Consumer staples, infrastructure sectors are two of the places to watch in frontier and emerging markets in Asia. Listed meat, hot beverages stocks, selected IT stocks, agri stocks, travel and tourism stocks and infrastructures stocks should outperform other stocks in Asia.

http://www.marketpulse.com/20141030/goldman-bullish-asian-stocks/

Goldman Bullish on Asian Stocks

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonspringer/2014/10/30/ten-reasons-to-invest-in-sri-lanka/

Ten Reasons to Invest In Sri Lanka

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## dlineinvestor

MARKETWINNER said:


> http://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-gold-etfs-sank-after-the-end-of-qe-cm408555
> 
> How Gold ETFs Sank After The End Of QE
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-31/gold-miners-plunge-toward-12-year-low-as-metal-drops.html
> 
> Gold Miners Plunge to 12-Year Low as Metal Drops
> 
> This is not the time for gold stocks.
> 
> As I said before still global markets have their legs. What a week for global stock markets. Fortunately we escaped from October selling. U.S. stocks jumped, sending indexes to records, thanks to stimulus from the Bank of Japan. Europe and Asia pacific region stocks also jumped.
> Asian stocks markets could appreciate further over the next six to eight months.  Among frontier market in Asia, Sri-Lankan stock market could do well in the coming months. I expect selected sectors and stocks to outperform over the next six months given attractive relative valuations. Consumer staples, infrastructure sectors are two of the places to watch in frontier and emerging markets in Asia. Listed meat, hot beverages stocks, selected IT stocks, agri stocks, travel and tourism stocks and infrastructures stocks should outperform other stocks in Asia.
> 
> http://www.marketpulse.com/20141030/goldman-bullish-asian-stocks/
> 
> Goldman Bullish on Asian Stocks
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonspringer/2014/10/30/ten-reasons-to-invest-in-sri-lanka/
> 
> Ten Reasons to Invest In Sri Lanka
> 
> My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.




MW .... this video address's your point but more in relation to the China and Australia relationship. very informative video, I agree a paradigm shift is coming.
http://www.afr.com/videos/business/stephen-roachs-red-alert-vnbtcxbtp3jx1hiqcp0npzf3yz7gphwu


----------



## Trembling Hand

Wysiwyg said:


> I shorted gold but the broker has opened the spread to $4. IC Markets are the thieves.






Wysiwyg said:


> You betcha amd I have to submit an e-mail complaint with trade details. IC Markets then contacts the liquidity provider to confirm spread variation and they get back to me. Filthy at the moment.




Wysiwyg it seems you have been complaining about CFD providers since the day you came on this forum. Why the hell do you keep on using them? 

You keep on doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome? For god sake open a futures account and be rid of their dodgy BS......


----------



## Wysiwyg

Finished reading a book published near the end of 2009 and the comments made on future U.S. market direction after a low became apparent in March. The author's sentiment was bearish with a retest of the March low likely. Research had shown that no bear market in history had ended in a V bottom but admitted there was always a first time. 

Present time and three Quantitative Easing programs later, U.S. markets have hit all time highs. I suppose the author was like most people at the time thinking cautiously and those at the time that had been stripped of large sums of money. One could guarantee that next bear market the intensity and duration will be different again.


----------



## avion

Honkers gone crazy


----------



## dlineinvestor

Wysiwyg said:


> Finished reading a book published near the end of 2009 and the comments made on future U.S. market direction after a low became apparent in March. The author's sentiment was bearish with a retest of the March low likely. Research had shown that no bear market in history had ended in a V bottom but admitted there was always a first time.
> 
> Present time and three Quantitative Easing programs later, U.S. markets have hit all time highs. I suppose the author was like most people at the time thinking cautiously and those at the time that had been stripped of large sums of money. One could guarantee that next bear market the intensity and duration will be different again.




It would be interesting to find out how many where waiting for a re-test this time.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Well that is it for me. End of the year is now 1 hour away. I'm off to complete(hopefully) my first (and last) Ironman and then 4 months of rolling around in Hokkaido Powder. 

At the start of the year I threw out some ideas. Lets see,




Trembling Hand said:


> I've been lazily thinking about this years markets,
> 
> US all good internally.... Bears continually calling for the end of this madness and still being wrong.




Yep, Bears still being slaughtered trying to re-live the GFC they missed. 



Trembling Hand said:


> Euro slight amount of trouble (outside Germany) and a slow slide into deflationary troubles....




Has basically gone nowhere. That is the market, economy and we are still looking at deflation being the problem. 



Trembling Hand said:


> ASX stock traders looking for longer term momentum will again be disappointed :horse:




Yep 



Trembling Hand said:


> :fan Will be China's credit problems.... bad debts... shadow banking... Credit squeeze... etc




Hmm still same problems on the door step but only light smoke certainly no fire. :bad:



Trembling Hand said:


> Gold cracks recent significant lows and heads to $1000 area (this could be soon).




Not really although it has mostly been a bear market in PMs this year the Jan/Feb run up at the start of the year has saved Bulls from most of the real pain. Though we are closer to $1000 than the $10,000 gold is supposed to be at. 



Trembling Hand said:


> Currencies, AUD smash-a-rama, JPY wins the race to zero.




Again Kinda right, kinda wrong.



Trembling Hand said:


> ... And Richie Porte & Cadel Evans go 1,2 in the Giro.




Didn't get close. 

So that is it. Be back too soon in 5 months : }

Will leave ya with this,



> A young boy traveled across Japan to the school of a famous Martial artist. When he arrived at the Dojo he was given an audience by the Master.
> "What do you wish from me?" the Master asked.
> "I wish to be your student and become the finest Karate-ka in the land," the boy replied "How long must I study?"
> "Ten years at least" answered the Master
> "Ten years is a long time," said the boy. "What if I studied twice as hard as all your other students?"
> "Twenty years" replied the Master
> "Twenty years!" "What if I practice day and night with all my effort?" the boy said
> "Thirty years," was the Masters reply
> "How is it that each time I say I will work harder, you tell me that it will take longer?" the boy asked.
> "The answer is clear. When one eye is fixed upon your destination, there is only one eye left with which to find the way."
> ~ Text from: Zen and the Martial Arts (1979 edition)




And this one,



> Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than the things you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. - Mark Twain


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Well that is it for me. End of the year is now 1 hour away. I'm off to complete(hopefully) my first (and last) Ironman and then 4 months of rolling around in Hokkaido Powder.
> 
> At the start of the year I threw out some ideas. Lets see,
> 
> 
> ,




I remember that post many months ago!  I believe you were looking at the mermaids on the harbour at the time

ONLY 4+ months off !!   If you had traded a bit better you could have had 5 

Try not to end up a statistic!


----------



## CanOz

Safe Travels TH!


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> At the start of the year I threw out some ideas. Lets see,




Not a bad scorecard. Enjoy the holiday... just don't exchange your Yen until the minute you need to use it...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Those who panicked when they heard QE must be regretting now. Although the Federal Reserve has now ended its quantitative easing (QE) program, the stock market is still rising. 

It is interesting to see that U.S. equities recorded their fifth-straight week of gains. There are bull markets even in Asian and pacific region including frontier markets. Actually every pullback has created opportunities for stock market players in the current global bull market. Despite gloomy prediction by some it is going to be one of the longest bull markets that we ever had. Eventually this should reverse at some point and we cannot say when. 

I think this powerful bull market is not going to end easily and we may see year end rally as well. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## rimtas

MARKETWINNER said:


> I think this powerful bull market is not going to end easily and we may see year end rally as well.




From a long term perspective I would project  All Ords in a 30.000-40.000 range in the 15-25 year period. Despite short-term fractal fluctuations, there is one long term  Copy Fractal pointing to the upcoming advance. 

So maybe it is better to say not "going to end easily", but instead-"it has a difficult start". Because we probably are nowhere near the finish but rather closer to the start, and it is a tough one. But it will catch a speed in the years to come.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Not that I'm living by it ... but if there is to be the "so called xmas rally" it's not looking good with all the neg data for Australia. 
The US markets to me look overbought and upon opening Monday, we shall see if this bull run continues.

Oil down
AUD down
Iron Ore down
Gold down

ASX in poor health
Where is the catalyst for a possible xmas rally ? 
Subject for banter 
for sure


----------



## Wysiwyg

> Not that I'm living by it ... but if there is to be the "so called xmas rally" it's not looking good with all the neg data for Australia.




It is a figment of imagination. There is no difference in price action to any other time of year.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Wysiwyg said:


> It is a figment of imagination. There is no difference in price action to any other time of year.



You mean you don't believe in Santa ?
Shame on you ... lol

Surely your familiar with the concept (XMAS rally ? seasons in the markets ?) 
All to be taken with a grain of salt or two mind you but surely a valid subject for conjecture.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Finally DOW passed 18,000 for the first time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-match-for-blue-chips-as-dow-tops-18-000.html

2014 Headwinds No Match for Blue Chips as Dow Tops 18,000

Rise of USD is likely to accelerate in 2015 and 2016 as well. On the other hand currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD will depreciate against USD and emerging currencies in 2015 and 2016. US stock market and other developed markets may have strong pullback or correction in 2015. There will be volatility in both stock and commodity market. Best places to park money in 2015 are less appreciated markets, assets, emerging sectors, currencies, assets, commodity and stocks. Consumer staples, emerging commodity stocks, currencies and selected consumer discretionary stocks should outperform the market in 2015 and 2016. China and India is likely to drive the Asian region to particularly strong growth. Selected Asian frontier and emerging markets are poised to outperform in 2015. Their currencies also should stay strong especially against commodity currencies such as NZD, AUD and AUD. 

Have a great Christmas and Happy New year 2015!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## waterbottle

Does anyone have any explanation as to just WTF was happening in the world when this occurred:



*That is an almost 50% drop in valuation in approximately 15 minutes*. R.I.P stop loss, I hardly knew thee.
As I write this, IB is showing that the AUDCHF pair has lost 13% - I have never seen a double digit % loss for any pair.

EDIT: Just checked google finance. Swiss franc has decoupled from Euro. Interest rates heading deep into negative territory. Reserve bank of India also decides to cut rates.
References:
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/business/swiss-national-bank-euro-franc-exchange-rate.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/b...-chief-backs-growth-policies-in-the-modi.html


----------



## waterbottle

waterbottle said:


> Does anyone have any explanation as to just WTF was happening in the world when this occurred:
> View attachment 61140
> 
> 
> *That is an almost 50% drop in valuation in approximately 15 minutes*. R.I.P stop loss, I hardly knew thee.
> As I write this, IB is showing that the AUDCHF pair has lost 13% - I have never seen a double digit % loss for any pair.
> 
> EDIT: Just checked google finance. Swiss franc has decoupled from Euro. Interest rates heading deep into negative territory. Reserve bank of India also decides to cut rates.
> References:
> http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/business/swiss-national-bank-euro-franc-exchange-rate.html
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/b...-chief-backs-growth-policies-in-the-modi.html




It seems like quite a few traders have blown their accounts over this. There was massive volatility in the AUDUSD today and this seems to be its origin. Other pairs experienced the same thing. I'm not sure if other instruments were also exposed.

If you have made substantial losses or blown your account, please pause before doing anything drastic.

*LIFELINE Ph 13 11 14*


----------



## waterbottle

Here's the big one. I have no words.




*LIFELINE Ph 13 11 14*


----------



## CanOz

My goodness, what a day for the FX traders....I was short CAD, but that's it. Had a trailing stop and got taken out.....lucky it wasn't a CHF trade!


----------



## waterbottle

CanOz said:


> My goodness, what a day for the FX traders....I was short CAD, but that's it. Had a trailing stop and got taken out.....lucky it wasn't a CHF trade!




There was lots to be made on the AUDUSD after the volatility ended but I was too clenched up to make a move


----------



## CanOz

waterbottle said:


> There was lots to be made on the AUDUSD after the volatility ended but I was too clenched up to make a move





F*** me, I bet you were!


----------



## waterbottle

So what does this mean in the short term? I would imagine that alot of money would be heading outside of Europe?


----------



## CanOz

waterbottle said:


> So what does this mean in the short term? I would imagine that alot of money would be heading outside of Europe?




Well, some has gone to the other safe haven....gold


----------



## waterbottle

Some talk about brokers going under because of the move


----------



## avion

Skimmed some of DAX last nite. The DOM was moving so fast i could not execute with mouse, had to use hotkeys and i have a 30" monitor with large DOM. You don't see that very often


----------



## waterbottle

avion said:


> Skimmed some of DAX last nite. The DOM was moving so fast i could not execute with mouse, had to use hotkeys and i have a 30" monitor with large DOM. You don't see that very often




I hope someone captured this and puts it on youtube. Probably just a blur of red and blue.

One of the FX brokers has already thrown in the towel



			
				EXCEL Markets said:
			
		

> ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------
> 
> 
> The dramatic move on the Swiss franc fueled by the Swiss National Bank's unexpected policy reversal of capping the Swiss franc against the euro has resulted in rare volatility and illiquidity. Both our primary and backup liquidity providers became unresponsive or illiquid for hours after the event. The majority of clients in a franc position were on the losing side and sustained losses amounting to far greater than their account equity. When a client cannot cover their losses it is passed onto us.
> 
> ALL OPEN POSITIONS MUST BE CLOSED BY 5PM NEW YORK TIME OR THEY WILL BE AUTOMATICALLY CLOSED AT THAT TIME. NEW POSITIONS CANNOT BE OPENED AS OF THIS TIME.
> 
> ALL CLIENT FUNDS ARE IN SEGREGATED ACCOUNTS AND NEVER USED FOR LP MARGINS. 100% OF POSITIVE CLIENT EQUITY OR BALANCE IS SAFE AND WITHDRAWABLE IMMEDIATELY.
> 
> Global Brokers NZ Ltd. STP's 100% of order flow and has sustained a total loss of operating capital. GBL can no longer meet regulatory minimum capitalization requirements of N$1,000,000 and will not be able to resume business. Losses incurred on trades that could not be exited due to illiquidity were losses incurred directly with the liquidity provider and we do not have the ability to reimburse those. Please note the interbank market for francs was illiquid for hours after the event and no traders with an open franc position were able to close it for a significant period of time, at any broker.
> 
> News of the impact of this event on companies and traders is just beginning to come to light. As Directors and Shareholders we would like to offer our sincerest apologies for this devastating turn of events, and to thank you for being such a supportive group.
> 
> We ask that you place withdrawal requests for your account balance at your earliest convenience and allow for minor delays as our team begins to experience higher than usual service volumes.
> 
> Best Regards,
> 
> Excel Markets, Global Brokers NZ Ltd


----------



## waterbottle

So what happens if 22 Jan comes around and the ECB doesn't print?


----------



## CanOz

FXCM is now in trouble as well.....

I've taken no chances and cleaned out my brokerage accounts...

CanOz


----------



## waterbottle

CanOz said:


> FXCM is now in trouble as well.....
> 
> I've taken no chances and cleaned out my brokerage accounts...
> 
> CanOz




CanOZ are you referring to IB?
They plan on increasing margin requirements for any instrument that is CHF exposed. It seems that the only brokers to have gone under are those that are FX-specific. Even then, not all FX brokers have closed.


----------



## skc

Crazy night. That's what happens when a synthetic market is made (CHF pegged) and then natural forces takeover. 

It's been described as an FX tsunami.... I think it's more like the SNB blowing up a dam (to the surprise of everyone downstream).

I had a pairs trade going long CSL... took some damage there.


----------



## waterbottle

waterbottle said:


> CanOZ are you referring to IB?
> They plan on increasing margin requirements for any instrument that is CHF exposed. It seems that the only brokers to have gone under are those that are FX-specific. Even then, not all FX brokers have closed.




Zerohedge is reporting a run on two of Greece's banks. Their source is a Greek newspaper (http://www.ekathimerini.com/) although it has pulled the article. Relevant sections from zerohedge are below:



			
				zerohedge.com said:
			
		

> Two Greek systemic banks reportedly submitted the first requests to the Bank of Greece for cash via the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) system on Thursday, in response to the pressing liquidity conditions resulting from the growing outflow of deposits as well as the acquisition of treasury bills forced onto them by the state.
> 
> 
> 
> Banks usually resort to ELA when they face a cash crunch and do not have adequate collateral to draw liquidity from the European Central Bank, their main funding tool. ELA is particularly costly as it carries an interest rate of 1.55 percent, against just 0.05 percent for ECB funding.
> 
> 
> 
> The requests by the two lenders will be discussed by the ECB next Wednesday.
> 
> 
> 
> Bank officials commented that lenders are resorting to ELA earlier than expected, which reflects the deteriorating liquidity conditions in the credit sector.
> 
> 
> 
> Besides the decline in deposits, banks were dealt another blow on Thursday with the scrapping of the euro cap on the Swiss franc. Bank estimates put the impact of the euro’s drop on the local system’s cash flow at between 1.5 and 2 billion euros.
> 
> 
> 
> Deposits recorded a decline of 3 billion euros in December – a month when they traditionally expand – while in the first couple of weeks of January the outflow continued, although banks say it is under control.
> 
> 
> 
> A major blow to the system’s liquidity has come from the repeated issue of T-bills: In November the state drew 2.75 billion euros in this way, in December it secured 3.25 billion euros, and it has already tapped another 2.7 billion in January. Of the above amounts, a significant share – amounting to 3 billion euros according to bank estimates – was in the hands of foreign investors who will not renew them, so they have to be bought by the Greek banks.
> 
> 
> 
> Local lenders had also resorted to ELA in 2011 to cope with the outflow of deposits and consecutive credit rating downgrades of the state (and the banks) that made Greek paper insufficient for the supply of liquidity by the Eurosystem. In May 2012, due to the uncertainty of the twin elections at the time, local banks drew 124 billion euros in ELA to handle the unprecedented outflow of deposits.


----------



## waterbottle

Alpari UK now insolvent due to CHF volatility


----------



## waterbottle

Interactive Brokers records $120 million dollar loss due to CHF volatility
Price was down 6.8% at the time of the press release.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Seems to have officially died in the bottom around here lately regarding futures trading etc. Anyone out there still having a go? Or you all sailing around in your yachts still?


----------



## avion

The only sailing i do is in a bath tub... :bath:

How r u going TM?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

avion said:


> The only sailing i do is in a bath tub... :bath:
> 
> How r u going TM?




EDIT: ahh nevermind you updated it haha

Yeah I'm going good, still trading away on the DAX when I can, going to watch replays of the market and record turning points and key moments so I can just watch back those moments, might help get my eye in more at the key times  what are you trading av?


----------



## avion

Still plugging HSI, i am the stage where i have 8 consecutive winning days only to blow it in 2 days. Now if i could take those two days off somehow...:dunno:

BTW, today is one of those days... :bonk:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

avion said:


> Still plugging HSI, i am the stage where i have 8 consecutive winning days only to blow it in 2 days. Now if i could take those two days off somehow...:dunno:
> 
> BTW, today is one of those days... :bonk:




Tried a daily stop limit? Like down a grand and you stop type thing. So easy to do with these fast markets though hey, can move so quick either way and you're day can be stuffed before you know it, or vice versa


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Tried a daily stop limit? Like down a grand and you stop type thing. So easy to do with these fast markets though hey, can move so quick either way and you're day can be stuffed before you know it, or vice versa




Ah, but that would take a *disciplined* trader..., none of that here, just a pure emotion. Knowing myself, trading is about the worst profession i could of picked for myself. And yet i think i may succeed exactly because of it... you know, push yourself out of the comfort zone, etc. Bring it on! 

Are you trading full time or still have a day job?


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Seems to have officially died in the bottom around here lately regarding futures trading etc. Anyone out there still having a go? Or you all sailing around in your yachts still?




Yes!

I've been cruising on the SS (So Short) DAX Titanic as it sailed straight into a 1.1 trillion QE iceberg!


----------



## avion

cynic said:


> Yes!
> 
> I've been cruising on the SS (So Short) DAX Titanic as it sailed straight into a 1.1 trillion QE iceberg!




That sucks cynic! How come you are holding overnight, are you trading cfd's?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

avion said:


> Ah, but that would take a *disciplined* trader..., none of that here, just a pure emotion. Knowing myself, trading is about the worst profession i could of picked for myself. And yet i think i may succeed exactly because of it... you know, push yourself out of the comfort zone, etc. Bring it on!
> 
> Are you trading full time or still have a day job?




Haha know the feeling, high of highs and low of lows this trading business   

Yeah still got a part time job, its early rise early finish so most of my day is free, should actually look at some Asian markets more, but the DAX is my baby, I know it better than any other market and its at a pretty good time to trade, although I do miss the US trading session as I have to goto bed early for early rises for work  

Haha hasn't the DAX had an insane 2015 so far cynic! It's really gone mental, never thought a couple years ago when it was around 8000 or something that I would see it up here this quick.


----------



## cynic

avion said:


> That sucks cynic! How come you are holding overnight, are you trading cfd's?



My strategies are predominantly inter day rather than intra day and yes I am CFD trading.


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> ...Haha hasn't the DAX had an insane 2015 so far cynic! It's really gone mental, never thought a couple years ago when it was around 8000 or something that I would see it up here this quick.



Insanity is synonymous with DAX behavior. 

Any level between zero and infinity is fair game!


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha hasn't the DAX had an insane 2015 so far cynic! It's really gone mental, never thought a couple years ago when it was around 8000 or something that I would see it up here this quick.




Bloody QE, it was so predictable what it did, looking what it did in US. Seem like another missed opportunity of a lifetime. But cynic missed it with inter day strategy, what chances do daytraders have - zilch, nada...


----------



## cynic

avion said:


> Bloody QE, it was so predictable what it did, looking what it did in US. Seem like another missed opportunity of a lifetime. But cynic missed it with inter day strategy, what chances do daytraders have - zilch, nada...



Tell me about it!

I valiantly counteracted my short exposures by opening long positions on another account. Those sharp (several hundred point) dips along the way achieved their primary objective of blowing away my long exposure prior to continuation of the uptrend.

There have been many opportunities of a lifetime in recent years. Based upon the global economic climate, I strongly suspect that there are many more yet to come. 

In my opinion, any trader capable of fast adaptation to changing circumstances, will likely find many opportunities for generation of phenomenal returns.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Russia boosting business relations with Vietnam to build their first nuclear power plant and hydrocarbon exploration in Siberia among other significant deals. Russia bypassing sanctions?



> Vietnam is currently implementing about a hundred projects with Russian investment. Russia hopes to shortly start building Vietnam’s first nuclear power plant and create a Center for Nuclear Science and Technology, Medvedev said.




http://rt.com/business/247033-russia-vietnam-trade-cooperation/


----------



## skyQuake

HSI freaks must be having fun with the 1300 pt range!

Southbound flow looks like set to be done before arvo cls


----------



## Wysiwyg

> HSI freaks must be having fun with the 1300 pt range!




Read a rumour that Trembling Hand was net short after Christmas and has now returned to his humble existence living in a tent at Byron Bay.

:cuckoo:


----------



## crown

Any of you fellas in on or observe the nice smooth buying action in the circled bit before the breakout?
Hope it repeats more often.
Makes the HSI that little bit more trader friendly with less of this


----------



## avion

skyQuake said:


> HSI freaks must be having fun with the 1300 pt range!




Darn, missed some good action lately... School holidays so not trading...


----------



## avion

Bit quiet lately at this thread....


----------



## barney

Indeed ........


----------



## cynic

avion said:


> Bit quiet lately at this thread....
> 
> View attachment 62642




That image gives a pretty accurate description of the condition of most of my trading accounts this year! Caught short and long on the DAX too many times to remember. I've bailed on longs when I should have held, held onto shorts when I should have bailed. 

I think I need to improve my analysis by investment in some superior technology!

Has anybody got a spare  "two up" penny that I could borrow? 
(With the aid of such advanced technology, I could expect to make the correct call approximately half the time! This would represent a dramatic improvement on my year to date performance.)


----------



## avion

cynic said:


> That image gives a pretty accurate description of the condition of most of my trading accounts this year! Caught short and long on the DAX too many times to remember. I've bailed on longs when I should have held, held onto shorts when I should have bailed.




Not much help here Cynic, sorry... I think Sam gave best description for DAX: It's like being in a cage with lion. You never know when it's going to rip your head off.

I do believe there are more rewarding opportunities on DAX than HSI (considering they seem to be two craziest indexes around as far as i know...) but understanding the beast is a challenge to put it modestly.

...


----------



## avion

Wysiwyg said:


> Read a rumour that Trembling Hand was net short after Christmas and has now returned to his humble existence living in a tent at Byron Bay.
> 
> :cuckoo:




Heard any more rumors Wysiwyg? I wonder, it's been a while...


----------



## avion

Buddha Birthday today so no trading on some Asian markets.


----------



## Trembling Hand

No deal from the Greek creditors,




rather tame response to be honest!!


----------



## CanOz

> 17:36*(GR) GREECE PM TSIPRAS SAID THAT CREDITORS HAVE NOT ACCEPTED GREEK PROPOSALS - Greek govt officials (related EUR/USD BUNDS EZU GREK) - Source TradeTheNews.com




Yeah, i was hoping for more, still got a runner on though


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yeah, i was hoping for more, still got a runner on though




I certainly cannot complain about lack of movement on this sucker since I've been on it. :bonk::bricks1:


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> I certainly cannot complain about lack of movement on this sucker since I've been on it. :bonk::bricks1:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 63146




How do you find it V the HSI
Seeing the same or similar faces or are 
The Asians and Europeans different
Cats ( Lions )?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> How do you find it V the HSI
> Seeing the same or similar faces or are
> The Asians and Europeans different
> Cats ( Lions )?




The DAX and HSI are surprisingly similar. Not exactly the same but close enough to feel like I can see my way around. The Dax doesn't have the nasty 100-150 point sweeps like the HSI which is welcome. Because the book is a bit thicker it seems to cascade more once it gets nasty which leaves room for your stops to be hit with nowhere as gnarly slippage if your are on the wrong side. Pattern wise there seems to be very similar faces popping up.

I'm liking the DAX a lot from what I have done on it but thats not surprising after how stale I was towards the end of last year. Amazing what a good holiday can do for your wallet.


----------



## Trembling Hand

China taking it in the neck today. 7% down after yesties 4%!! :behead:


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> China taking it in the neck today. 7% down after yesties 4%!! :behead:




More suicides....

What an open drive...300 points....

What's up with the Dax? Eurex a bit thin?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Well that was interesting......


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Yeehaaaa, good fun! Gapped down a smidgen  How long do we have to hold on for again? 7 seconds was it?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Well that was interesting......
> 
> 
> View attachment 63178




The bonds aren't as bullish as i was thinking they might be, i heard there was a  long Que to cover....

I never traded the DAX before the cash opened, always seemed too illiquid, do you trade before the cash opens TH?


----------



## avion

Awesome!! But i think my eyes hurt from that crazy DOM at the opening...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Awesome!! But i think my eyes hurt from that crazy DOM at the opening...




lol....i know right! I got some on video, will see how it looks when the cash opens


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I never traded the DAX before the cash opened, always seemed too illiquid, do you trade before the cash opens TH?




I do a bit...... but probably shouldn't!


----------



## fiftyeight

Damn

Some people must of made some serious $$$


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Damn
> 
> Some people must of made some serious $$$




Was chatting to a guy that trades prop today, said he knows some guys that will make 6 and 7 figures today...


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> Was chatting to a guy that trades prop today, said he knows some guys that will make 6 and 7 figures today...




Crazy amounts of money. Could not imagine holding that kind of position in to the weekend.

I didnt even want to hold a EUR5 CFD haha


----------



## Wysiwyg

Europe bulls trying to close the gap in contrast to the weak Aussie bulls.

Euro economic health okay according to PMI.


----------



## tech/a

Smells like a bull trap


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Smells like a bull trap





Yeah, exactly...i've been watching short cover all day, once they stopped. .....hello...buyers?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Smells like a bull trap




Monday gaps down never follow through.......


Other things that never work are absolute statements.


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Was chatting to a guy that trades prop today, said he knows some guys that will make 6 and 7 figures today...




I am sure I made way more than that today (in currencies such as Korean Won, IDR or VND).



Trembling Hand said:


> Monday gaps down never follow through.......
> 
> Other things that never work are absolute statements.




Tend to agree. Greece isn't that important and there's been little contagion this time. The worry last few times was about Spain or Italy $het hitting the fan. Nothing like that this time round.

China is probably the bigger worry for Oz.


----------



## CanOz

> 20:18(GR) Greece said to transfer â‚¬50K to EFSF to avoid default - German press (related EZU GREK) - Source TradeTheNews.com




Shoot, i hope they had a bit more than 50 grand...


----------



## CanOz

For those interested, there is a cool podcast by a young Australian called "Chat with Traders". It's quite worthwhile and he has had some very interesting people on the show. The last guy was a prop trader from Chicago....You can find it easily on iTunes podcasts.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What a magnificent session to trade! One of those everything-works poster shots with all the testimonials underneath it


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What a magnificent session to trade! One of those everything-works poster shots with all the testimonials underneath it
> 
> View attachment 63204




Yeah, behaved really well didn't it....

You trialing out the CQG platform from AMP?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Yeah, behaved really well didn't it....
> 
> You trialing out the CQG platform from AMP?




Yeah used to use it a few years ago, best platform IMO


----------



## CanOz

This morning should be interesting on the HHI, HSI, and Xina50. These are basically the only way to access the China futures market for foriegners. The news is saying they're going to buy equities this morning to stop the plunge, the question is will this/can this work? 

At the same time, they're making the same old mistake: 



> 06:52 (CN) Several major brokerages to suspend lending securities to clients for short selling purchases - Chinese press - Including Gotai Junan, Changjiang Securities, China Merchant Securities, Founder Securities, Donghai Securities and Essence Securities. - Source TradeTheNews.com




Without shorts sellers to buy back thier positions, the market will have less liquidity buying until the big boys step in because they see value again....that's the bottom. Short sellers take profit on the way down, to do this they have to buy back their equities that were borrowed and sold. By removing this option, the markets drop will be sharper...

Lets see what the morning brings....Gap up 6% to start as the Xina50 opens....


----------



## CanOz

Hindsight trade of the year: 

After the Asian markets nearly bottomed out today before the noon break, it became obvious to me that the trade of the year was short Hong Kong and long China. The theory being that HK would react more to Greece (being a more Global economy) and China would have the support of the brokers to intervene when the sell off got too nasty....

I pull a 1:1 spread chart up and sure enough, its sold off all day. Now i just wish i could think more like a spreader...less like an outright trader....

Actually, on the Greece thing...there's a couple of spread trades there too i reckon. The market will gap down, that's a sure thing. The ES has already likely priced this in, so the obvious trade is to short the ES and go long the Dax or Eurostoxx, at the proper trade ratio.



CanOz


----------



## tech/a

DAX off around 3%


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Hindsight trade of the year:
> 
> After the Asian markets nearly bottomed out today before the noon break, it became obvious to me that the trade of the year was short Hong Kong and long China. The theory being that HK would react more to Greece (being a more Global economy) and China would have the support of the brokers to intervene when the sell off got too nasty....
> 
> I pull a 1:1 spread chart up and sure enough, its sold off all day. Now i just wish i could think more like a spreader...less like an outright trader....
> 
> Actually, on the Greece thing...there's a couple of spread trades there too i reckon. The market will gap down, that's a sure thing. The ES has already likely priced this in, so the obvious trade is to short the ES and go long the Dax or Eurostoxx, at the proper trade ratio.




Sounds good in theory but how do you know why HK has such outsized fall today? My guess is that there's some Greece in there, but probably mostly China. E.g. No one's protecting the HK market so may be a short there (on some of the A-shares?) could be a hedge against China? I can only imagine how poor the liquidity is on individual stocks on this plunge in China.

Pure speculations of course... these two markets are kind of beyond rationality.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Sounds good in theory but how do you know why HK has such outsized fall today? My guess is that there's some Greece in there, but probably mostly China. E.g. No one's protecting the HK market so may be a short there (on some of the A-shares?) could be a hedge against China? I can only imagine how poor the liquidity is on individual stocks on this plunge in China.
> 
> Pure speculations of course... these two markets are kind of beyond rationality.





Yeah true, but there is the HHI which is the China H class shares. The Hang Seng is less weighted towards mainland sticks than the HHI even...Even that had the spread blown out today...


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> The Hang Seng is less weighted towards mainland sticks than the HHI even




Are you sure your general hypothesis is correct? I can't seem to find the link but I read something just today about how the Hong Kong market is where a lot of the larger Chinese companies are, with the mainland exchanges more dominated by smaller firms.

I am not sure it is safe to make macro bets on an intraday scale, so I wouldn't worry too much about missing out, could just as easily have cut you up the other way.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Are you sure your general hypothesis is correct? I can't seem to find the link but I read something just today about how the Hong Kong market is where a lot of the larger Chinese companies are, with the mainland exchanges more dominated by smaller firms.
> 
> I am not sure it is safe to make macro bets on an intraday scale, so I wouldn't worry too much about missing out, could just as easily have cut you up the other way.





Macro bets are executed intraday sinner...


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Macro bets are executed intraday sinner...




Uh, sure, aren't all trades executed intraday? 

I was only trying to point out that it doesn't seem safe to evaluate the outcome of "the trade of the year" on an intraday basis, but whatever, I'll leave you to your hindsight trades of the year, enjoy.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Uh, sure, aren't all trades executed intraday?
> 
> I was only trying to point out that it doesn't seem safe to evaluate the outcome of "the trade of the year" on an intraday basis, but whatever, I'll leave you to your hindsight trades of the year, enjoy.





I was trying to engage conversation on what i believed to be a great trade related to the context currently. The Short ES long FESX trade worked as well. Spreads like this are executed intra-day and may only be held for the day until the spread turns again....or they could be held longer as a swing.

Enjoy your life mate...

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Brrrr! 

Tune in tomorrow folks for the latest episode of Days of our Forums, will they kiss and make up? Or will the bitter feud continue? 

See local guides for details.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Brrrr!
> 
> Tune in tomorrow folks for the latest episode of Days of our Forums, will they kiss and make up? Or will the bitter feud continue?
> 
> See local guides for details.




Whats the point to tune in at all mate, i offered an interesting trade and called it 'hindsight' and then offered the possibility that another one might be about to offer up another opportunity...all i get is some grief about not taking a trade intraday using macro context....WTF????? Isn't that what the spreaders do???


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Whats the point to tune in at all mate, i offered an interesting trade and called it 'hindsight' and then offered the possibility that another one might be about to offer up another opportunity...all i get is some grief about not taking a trade intraday using macro context....WTF????? Isn't that what the spreaders do???




Haha all good mate, just trying to lighten the mood in here  How can you soar like an eagle when you're surrounded by turkeys huh?  I was reading and enjoying, don't let one stone throw you off the rails!


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Whats the point to tune in at all mate, i offered an interesting trade and called it 'hindsight' and then offered the possibility that another one might be about to offer up another opportunity...all i get is some grief about not taking a trade intraday using macro context....WTF????? Isn't that what the spreaders do???




You have raised some interesting observations... and finding the right trading opportunities in different market conditions is definitely a key attribute of successful traders.

I remember (now) back in 2011 when the Euro crisis was in full force... every weekend there was some silly news that gets generally mis-priced early on Monday. And as TH pointed out earlier, Monday gaps don't often follow through. The long DAX short ES trade was perhaps a decent "partially hedged" trade to capture the Monday gap reversal. Although I don't believe it's a true "spread". One would expect Greece to impact Germany more than US so I wouldn't really bet on mean reversion.

What's the "on the ground" feeling in China with the market wobbling? It's hard to imagine any retail holder still game to buy around this level. All these new rules about relaxing margin lending just sounds ridiculous. And reducing transaction costs... doesn't that make selling cheaper as well? How on earth does that promote more buying


----------



## CanOz

SKC, Lots of chatter on WeChat about suicides, jumpers mostly. But to be honest i'm not much in touch with the average punter here. My wife's father was virtually begging us to invest, at the top of the market mind you, but i managed to convince him otherwise. That was just before it made another high and collapsed. 

I guess by suspending trading in a third of the stocks, then buying another 15% you can slow the bleeding, but for how long....



> 08:41(CN) 769 companies halt trading as of today, approx 27% of total listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen - Chinese press - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> My wife's father was virtually begging us to invest, at the top of the market mind you,




How is he?


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> How is he?




Well he had all his money tied up in a project deposit, so he had no money to invest...which is lucky...


----------



## CanOz

From StockTwits...I'm a little pessimistic that a country can manipulate its markets in the short term...long term yeah, QE etc...

But do they really think this will stop the bleeding....


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Well he had all his money tied up in a project deposit, so he had no money to invest...which is lucky...




That's a good.  Lesson learned with no cost!!


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> SKC, Lots of chatter on WeChat about suicides, jumpers mostly. But to be honest i'm not much in touch with the average punter here. My wife's father was virtually begging us to invest, at the top of the market mind you, but i managed to convince him otherwise. That was just before it made another high and collapsed.




What has the government done over there?! I never quite understand why they manufactured that big rise... Was it really to prop up the property market? 

P.S. I found it very hard to discuss anything shares related with friends and relatives... and particularly the in-laws. Most certainly don't understand how, as trader, my opinion may change between the start of a sentence and the end of it.



CanOz said:


> From StockTwits...I'm a little pessimistic that a country can manipulate its markets in the short term...long term yeah, QE etc...
> 
> But do they really think this will stop the bleeding....




The Chinese have a lot to learn about market manipulation!


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> My wife's father was virtually begging us to invest




A few investment newsletters (Big Investment houses - not talking Motley Fool here) were starting to recommend investing into China a few weeks ago...as a loose follower of all markets I couldn't believe the timing. At best it was a very late call to an uptrending market and at worst it was a call to go long at the top of a bubble...what changed (other than price) that caused recommendations to send investment capital to China? The HK link has been up and running for a while now so they can't use that excuse!


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> A few investment newsletters (Big Investment houses - not talking Motley Fool here) were starting to recommend investing into China a few weeks ago...as a loose follower of all markets I couldn't believe the timing. At best it was a very late call to an uptrending market and at worst it was a call to go long at the top of a bubble...what changed (other than price) that caused recommendations to send investment capital to China? The HK link has been up and running for a while now so they can't use that excuse!





Not sure, i know MSCI was looking to include exposure through stock connect to the Shanghai markets for their ETFs, but then they decided they wanted to see some reforms first i think....


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Not sure, i know MSCI was looking to include exposure through stock connect to the Shanghai markets for their ETFs, but then they decided they wanted to see some reforms first i think....




Full statement on ZH http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-09/msci-track-china-inclusion-warns-liquidity-remains-issue

The 3 main issues:


> 1. Quota allocation process.   Global investors told MSCI that having reliable access to quota is a critical requirement. They believe that large investors should be given access to quota commensurate with the size of their assets under management. This is especially important for passive investors, whose investment processes replicate benchmarks. In addition, all investors said that they need sufficient flexibility and assurance to secure additional quota should the need arise. Most international investors have indicated a preference for a more streamlined, transparent and predictable quota allocation process.
> 
> 2. Capital mobility restrictions.  Liquidity is a critical component of the investment process. Regardless of the channel they use, investors say that they need access to daily liquidity. They believe that this access should apply to all investment vehicles, including open?ended funds, ETFs and separate accounts. Some investors have continued to express concerns about restrictions on capital lock?up and the limit on the amount of repatriation. Finally, in the context of Stock Connect, investors feel that the daily limit imposed on the “northbound access” (access to Shanghai?listed A?shares through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange) should be lifted because it is a great source of trading uncertainty for passive investors, who typically trade on market close.
> 
> 3. Beneficial ownership. MSCI applauds CSRC’s recent clarification on the Stock Connect beneficial ownership issue. MSCI expects this clarification to make international investors more confident in using the Stock Connect scheme. Time and actual experience, however, are needed for investors to provide their final assessments. A large number of asset owners invest through separate accounts. Because they typically delegate investment and operational decisions to their fund managers, recognizing clear title to ownership for the ultimate beneficial owners is a crucial concern.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Most certainly don't understand how, as trader, my opinion may change between the start of a sentence and the end of it.




Ha! Good one. I often get the what's good to buy now question. 

I normally answer the HSI. Buy it then sell it 5 min later then sell it again  and buy it back 3 min later.


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, thanks Sinner. Appreciate the link.


----------



## Wysiwyg

America down, Europe down, Gold down, Oil down,  AUS/USD down. Will ASX bozos dump on cue today? Yes.


----------



## notting

Wysiwyg said:


> America down, Europe down, Gold down, Oil down,  AUS/USD down. Will ASX bozos dump on cue today? Yes.




Gold down :dunno:


----------



## luutzu

Wysiwyg said:


> America down, Europe down, Gold down, Oil down,  AUS/USD down. Will ASX bozos dump on cue today? Yes.




The beginning of GFC II? Or that'll take another six months?


----------



## sinner

Wysiwyg said:


> America down, Europe down, Gold down, Oil down,  AUS/USD down. Will ASX bozos dump on cue today? Yes.




Lots of red, but looks like the real move is in silver, whoosh! Other industrial metals copper/plat getting spanked too.




(h/t finviz.com)


----------



## crown

Anyone watching Xina50 when it did this and flashed down 25%(day change) for the day
Bids also were not present on the DOM.
Any ideas what went on?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

You confirmed it with other sources? To make sure it wasn't just an IB thing.


----------



## crown

ThingyMajiggy said:


> You confirmed it with other sources? To make sure it wasn't just an IB thing.




IB have clarified it as correct.


----------



## CanOz

This is from eSignal:

1 contract traded at 8880, a lucky number

10250 dropped higher up


----------



## crown

CanOz said:


> This is from eSignal:
> 
> 1 contract traded at 8880, a lucky number
> 
> 10250 dropped higher up




Quite strange to see/not see bids showing up on the DOM.
One of those market anomalies that show up every now and then


----------



## jmg86

crown said:


> Quite strange to see/not see bids showing up on the DOM.
> One of those market anomalies that show up every now and then




A50 was limit down at 10% so no bids as market can't move any lower for 10 mins.  HHI got bid straight away as people hedged/covered were the volume was.


----------



## crown

jmg86 said:


> A50 was limit down at 10% so no bids as market can't move any lower for 10 mins.  HHI got bid straight away as people hedged/covered were the volume was.




Cheers


----------



## CanOz

jmg86 said:


> A50 was limit down at 10% so no bids as market can't move any lower for 10 mins.  HHI got bid straight away as people hedged/covered were the volume was.




Wow, i can't believe i missed all that...napping, litterally. jmg, what do you think that large bid was after it popped back up? What do you make of those large trades that have been going through? Hedges from the brokers?


----------



## Wysiwyg

China -- 6 month sell ban for Company Management holding more than 5% shares in their company! 45% of exchange frozen.

Source - SkyNews.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Jon Hilsenrath (WSJ) quote -- If the Fed. doesn't cut rates once it's unlikely to cut rates twice this year. Lol


----------



## Trembling Hand

Been looking at HSI and XINA50 for the first time in 6 months today. Bloody hell I've missed out on some amazing trading. Book is nice and thin though!


----------



## skyQuake

July nearly limit up!

Sept doing a good job of closing that spread

Iron ore/copper/commds provided a good hint overnight.


...and as for having those stocks frozen. People desperately wanting to sell are now people desperately wanting to buy!

Though I see the policy of preventing >5% substantial holders from selling will be VERY damaging in the long term. Only the very very long term buy and holds would be comfortable with that kind of crap


----------



## jmg86

CanOz said:


> Wow, i can't believe i missed all that...napping, litterally. jmg, what do you think that large bid was after it popped back up? What do you make of those large trades that have been going through? Hedges from the brokers?




Not 100% sure but some participants were ban from shorting Naked futs in CSI 300/500 in the mainland so i dare say all the hedging is being done on the SGX/HKFE thus the volume & covering.


----------



## CanOz

jmg86 said:


> Not 100% sure but some participants were ban from shorting Naked futs in CSI 300/500 in the mainland so i dare say all the hedging is being done on the SGX/HKFE thus the volume & covering.




Ahh makes sense, thanks for that.

Some nice short covering now!


----------



## fiftyeight

What makes you think short covering?

Maybe someone knows what is going to be in Greek reform plan tonight?

EDIT: I was talking about the DAX


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> What makes you think short covering?
> 
> Maybe someone knows what is going to be in Greek reform plan tonight?
> 
> EDIT: I was talking about the DAX




Well I was referring to the Xina50. You can tell on the DOM when shorts are covering or longs are liquidating, it's emotional  "get me out at any price" type of orders hitting the bids or offers. I just got out of a long from 3240 on the FESX hoping that we'd see some short covering if we took out today's highs, no such luck, no interest in covering shorts there yet. So it's nap time for me now....


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> it's emotional  "get me out at any price" type of orders hitting the bids or offers.




So these kinds of rallies will be fast with heaps of bids going through on the bid or offers.

Something to look out for.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> So these kinds of rallies will be fast with heaps of bids going through on the bid or offers.
> 
> Something to look out for.




The market took out 3360 (FESX) and the shorts have been spewing since. That's what i wanted to see today but i just didn't the stamina to sit and wait for it (getting too old)...when you see it, you'll remember it, and you'll know as a minimum that *you don't fade it.* 90% of the time now, i don't fade it...but i only catch it, 5% of the time. 

That's got to improve.

Edit: i sort of knew it might happen today because it happened in Asia all afternoon...but with the context i wasn't sure how short Europe was. When the market gapped up in pre-cash, the reaction was not as supportive as i had hoped when the cash opened....plus the Bund wasn't cooperating either.


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> The market took out 3360 (FESX) and the shorts have been spewing since




This is what I still cannot identify. I get a feeling but nothing I could write down on paper and thus am probably just guessing. 

I am watching intermittently and I have not switched to the FESX as you have previously suggested. It MIGHT help me identify things like "spewing" "smashing the bid/offer" "sweeps" "pulling bids" a little more clear. With the thin markets I have been watching like the DAX and HSI I have found it difficult to distinguish between these. 

Easier to blame IB data and CFDs 

I also got bored and started watching the footy. I never average down on shares but have averaged down twice on the Pies to win haha


----------



## avion

What's with DAX...any news?


----------



## captain black

avion said:


> What's with DAX...any news?




http://news.forexlive.com/!/eu-summit-reaches-an-agreement-on-greek-deal-20150713


----------



## avion

captain black said:


> http://news.forexlive.com/!/eu-summit-reaches-an-agreement-on-greek-deal-20150713




Thank you Capitain!


----------



## avion

SPI looks nice today:


----------



## sinner

A bunch of US charts. Doesn't look awesome. :grenade:

Volatility at lows, this is good, at least until it spikes. If you understand how the annualisation works for volatility, you can assume the line in the sand to be about 15, anything above that and you can look at ways to proportionally reduce your exposure (e.g. 15/VIX).




Breadth. Man this looks horrible. This is just one example, but you can take it from me that participation is *crap* amongst the board for US sectors and stocks! I checked, the breadth divergence leading into 2008 was about 1 year long (peak breadth v peak price)...we are well past the 1y mark by now. 



TED spread, an oldie but a goodie. Unfortunately it has lost some meaning as the banks no longer use the Eurodollar in the same fashion they used to pre GFC. But regardless both its position in the range and slope provide some valuable info still. The natural range is like between 10-50bps (normally only see it spike above 50 during really bad events) but the rising slope is not promising. 



Crude ratio of high yield to 10y Gov. Easier than going to the St Louis Fed website and getting the proper "BBB options adjusted" chart. You get the drift, not awesome, but it has come in off the lows.



Industrial metals. Does this look like investment in economic growth to you?


----------



## sinner

Brent. I guess it depends on how you look at oil, this could be considered bullish from a "cheaper input cost" perspective but bearish from a "holy crap where is demand?" perspective...



BDI, another oldie that people forgot after the GFC. Look, it's going up! 



AAI investor sentiment (http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey) 6 month outlook. Bears and bulls alike continue to migrate into the "wtf is going on, neutral" column.



Valuations, hoo boy. Now keep in mind that these don't dictate short term outcomes (that's what all of the above charts do), but do keep in mind the forecast 10y nominal return based on John Hussmans shorthand valuation model using below or similar metrics is <1% pa at this point. 

Given the above charts, it does seem less likely that we would be flat for the next 10y to get to that valuation...most likely outcome would be a nasty decline to below long term average valuation then a climb back to the current price level over a long time.
(chart from http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150720.htm)


----------



## avion

sinner said:


> A bunch of US charts. Doesn't look awesome. :grenade:




Good reading Sinner, thanks.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

It is high time to diversify investment and other businesses among basket of regions including frontier markets.

Every situation is an opportunity for intelligent investors. When market players are in buoyant mood they think this time is different. No it is not. Every asset has its own short term and long term cycles. Few years back USD stayed very low for a considerable period not only against high flying currencies such as NZD and AUD but also against frontier market currencies. Now it is other way. Those currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD which appreciated rapidly against USD and frontier market currencies during last five years are depreciating against USD and frontier market currencies now. Lately emerging currencies such as Indian rupee and South African currencies had some sell off. India rupee had settle down somewhat. South Asia is more stable than other Asian regions. 

Out of all currencies frontier market currencies are less vulnerable to any hiccup. They always traded very low against hard currencies and emerging currencies. On top of that, time to time they were devaluating their currencies against USD. 

This is the time to diversify and identify undervalued markets and other undervalued assets including under valued currencies and emerging commodities. 

Those who advised others to dumb USD will have to think twice now. By 2017/18 USD should become very strong. GOLD will crush further. Higher USD also will benefit some sectors in other countries. Higher USD means more demand for good and services as well. 

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment...rontier-markets

How new political regimes are helping Asia’s frontier markets

Michael Levy, investment manager, EMEA and global frontier markets equity team at Barings, looks at companies set to outperform on the back of new and more focused political regimes
.
While the performance of emerging markets over the past few years has been weak, frontier markets have been relatively more robust, particularly in Asia. This is not to say they have become impermeable to volatility: frontier market equities have come under pressure recently due to the plunging oil price – particularly in oil exporting markets such as Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

The companies which are likely to deliver the most attractive long-term returns are well-managed, and the potential for strong earnings growth for multiple years can be seen.

But in recent months, a strengthening political background in many frontier markets has become a key indicator of the continuing rise of the asset class into the investment mainstream.

In Asia, an example of the democratic process functioning well in a frontier economy was seen in Sri Lanka, which elected and installed a new president in January. The New Democratic Front – led by Maithripala Sirisena was declared the winner after receiving 50% of the votes. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern markets posted mixed returns of late, Saudi Arabia performed strongly despite the passing of King Abdullah in January – helped by the fact that his successor, King Salman, set out a clear roadmap for future succession.

While they will not be totally immune to significant developments in the global economy, frontier markets are expected to continue to be primarily driven by domestic issues.

Indeed, they do have a lower correlation with developed markets than their emerging counterparts – just 0.49 compared to 0.84. This means frontier markets tend to be driven much more by local factors than large-scale macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

Solid growth across the frontier market universe is expected this year, significantly ahead of most developed or emerging economies, the growth is expected to continue through the medium to long term – over a three- to five-year time horizon – helped by supportive demographics.

For instance, while many investors have assumed the drop in the oil price is negative for frontier markets, we believe this concern is misplaced. Many frontier market countries are net oil importers, positioned to benefit from the oil price fall. This combination of a supportive economic environment and lower energy costs should be positive for Asia – particularly companies in countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Stronger growth 

The companies which are likely to deliver the most attractive long-term returns are well-managed, and the potential for strong earnings growth for multiple years can be seen. Examples include Brac Bank and Masan Group.

The first of these is a bank in Bangladesh with good exposure to the fast-growing small and medium-sized enterprises market. It also operates Bangladesh’s leading mobile payments platform.

Masan Group, on the other hand, is Vietnam’s second-largest food and beverage company with dominant positions in seasonings, noodles and instant coffee. The company has exciting expansion plans and is looking to increase product offerings in new categories.

Share price valuation

It is worth highlighting the share price valuation for frontier markets, which is attractive in absolute terms and relative to emerging markets. As can be seen below, the MSCI Frontier Markets index offers more than twice the return on equity than the MSCI Emerging Markets index for a lower price/earnings ratio.
pg33-graph


http://fortune.com/2015/07/24/chinas-slowd...es-to-new-lows/

China's slowdown pushes commodity prices to new lows

Metals prices in particular are tanking as the long-held belief in limitless Chinese demand evaporates.

Fresh evidence of the slowdown in China’s industrial sectoris pushing the prices of gold and other commodities to new multi-year lows Friday.

Gold has slumped another 1.1% to a new five-year low of just over $1.080 a troy ounce, while prices for copper hit a six-year low below $2.36 a pound. Nickel and aluminum, two other base metals that also historically serve as good indicators of demand from global industry, also came close to new six-year lows, as traders increasingly lose faith in the main factor that has supported prices for the last decade–supposedly limitless demand from China.

The news is bad news for the global economy in general, as Chinese demand for raw materials has been a major prop to emerging markets for the last 20 years. Countries from Chile and Angola to Australia and New Zealand have come to depend on Chinese demand for their natural resources, and all are seeing their economies falter and their currencies fall as the biggest engine of global growth struggles. The International Monetary Fund earlier this month revised down its forecast for global growth this year to 3.3% from 3.5% (although that was mainly due to a weak first half in the U.S. rather than to Chinese factors).
Copper prices can’t stop falling. Source: Investing.com

Sentiment in global commodity markets has taken a turn for the worse in the wake of China’s second-quarter gross domestic product data and the drastic measures taken to control the deflation of a stock market bubble. The annual growth rate of 7% announced by the authorities seemed to be at odds with economists’ assessment of other indicators, prompting fears that the country is massaging its data. At the same time, the widespread suspension of stocks on the mainland market, coupled with heavy-handed measures to support prices and stop investors selling, has fostered doubts as to the authorities’ stated commitment to market-oriented reforms.

Markit’s flash estimate of its purchasing managers index, which is based on anecdotal replies from businessmen across the country rather than the calculations state-appointed statisticians, fell to a new 14-month low of 48.2 in July from 49.4 in June, while the manufacturing output sub-index fell to a 16-month low of 47.3 from 49.7. A reading of 50 typically reflects the line between growth and contraction.

Cold comfort for commodities – Chinese manufacturing is trending down.Markit

That was short of market expectations, and markets were alarmed by how broad-based the deterioration was. New orders, export orders, employment and prices all fell, while inventories of unsold goods rose
.
The Shanghai Composite index, despite the heavy restrictions on trading now in place, fell 1.3% in response to the news, but is still up more than 25% from its recent bottom, thanks to buying funded by state-backed entities. Even so, analysts have started to worry that the amount of wealth destroyed by rout since mid-June may be having knock-on effects at national level by depressing spending and consumer confidence.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## CanOz

Bullish or Bearish for this international index?

Would like to hear your opinion, bullish or bearish and why do you hold that view?

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Bullish or Bearish for this international index?
> 
> Would like to hear your opinion, bullish or bearish and why do you hold that view?
> 
> CanOz




the first question an accomplished actor asks: what is the subtext
if you dont know the subtext, you dont know the intent of the character

Was ist der Zeitrahmen,  herr Can?


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Bullish or Bearish for this international index?
> 
> Would like to hear your opinion, bullish or bearish and why do you hold that view?
> 
> CanOz




Without seeing the price it's difficult to tell because you can't tell the scale of the chart at all.

But, I would hazard a guess that since the entire year of 2014 was spent in a distribution looking pattern rather than making new highs would indicate the resulting rally was due to an exogenous factor (probably Government intervention) and therefore unlikely to be sustainable in the long term.

On a betters basis I would assign:

* 65% probability of retesting the current high
* 35% probability of being higher than the current high in 6 months.
* 65% probability of retesting the high of the distribution pattern within 6 months.

But I wouldn't place any bets without a better shot of the chart.


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> the first question an accomplished actor asks: what is the subtext
> if you dont know the subtext, you dont know the intent of the character
> 
> Was ist der Zeitrahmen,  herr Can?





Lol ....   Ach tung ... Where u bin Joules??    Still trading/killing Gold??  .....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

That would have to be the DAX with the way that's accelerated in the last 12-24 months?


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> That would have to be the DAX with the way that's accelerated in the last 12-24 months?




I came to a similar conclusion when I saw "DAX_CCB" on that chart.


----------



## Joules MM1

barney said:


> Lol ....   Ach tung ... Where u bin Joules??    Still trading/killing Gold??  .....




barney !!

....applying the defib machine this week, as it goes 

and why not....




credits to Jason Goepfert for the above view

you can get basic data from www.timingcharts.com that gives comparable contract sizes

metals are international markets, too


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> you can get basic data from www.timingcharts.com that gives comparable contract sizes
> 
> metals are international markets, too




here's a cupla studies i did last few days, looking for a weekly swing low ....


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> barney !!
> 
> ....applying the defib machine this week, as it goes
> 
> and why not....





Haha .... make sure you hook the paddles up the right way round

I don't have any in depth analysis, but when Gold made that aggressive lower low last Monday, a few bells started to ring.  (The Traders in pain indicator ... I know that Indicator well)


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> I came to a similar conclusion when I saw "DAX_CCB" on that chart.




Yes, my mistake cynic....thought I got rid of any dax references...

I'm with sinner...looks bullish to me, is the QE fully priced in then? Perhaps not...


----------



## Joules MM1

liking hsi to make 24200's after lunch

xjo req'd lunch .....rofl


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Bullish or Bearish for this international index?
> 
> Would like to hear your opinion, bullish or bearish and why do you hold that view?
> 
> CanOz




a wot-happens-next post .....we should do more of these (without the obvious accents next time  )
an observation:





Joules MM1 said:


> t
> Was ist der Zeitrahmen,  herr Can?


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> a wot-happens-next post .....we should do more of these (without the obvious accents next time  )
> an observation:
> View attachment 63605




Agree, perhaps a Test of that lower value area...no charts from me for a few weeks. Sydney tonight, Noosa tomorrow and Brisbane next week!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Agree, perhaps a Test of that lower value area...no charts from me for a few weeks. Sydney tonight, Noosa tomorrow and Brisbane next week!




ifo, ifo, it's sell the dax we go ...#'s good, but we have much to do ....




below 11150's would be nice ....


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> I'm with sinner...looks bullish to me, is the QE fully priced in then? Perhaps not...




Sorry, maybe I communicated poorly, but only really a tiny bit bullish in that I think there would be a good chance of retesting the current high, but otherwise not super bullish on prospects.

Also, I looked it up! October 2 was the day Mario Draghi announced the ECB would begin buying Asset Backed Securities soon.

Please excuse my crude drawing which tries to demonstrate what I was describing. A 35% chance of it being higher in 6 months is another way of saying "I think it will go down after testing the high anyway".

I reckon early August is just about gonna be it (time to put dem hedges on), short of another Central Bank front lawn dump.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Here we go again. A panic sell off on a bunch of stocks and the whole world goes into melt down sell off mentality. Next, the extremity gets bought with the ning nongs that sold at the low getting another lesson.


----------



## Joules MM1

#hsi #xjo

take the trade that makes you puke, day ...P T Jones days


----------



## avion

Joules MM1 said:


> #hsi #xjo
> 
> take the trade that makes you puke, day ...P T Jones days




Tell us more Joules... what went wrong?

I watched youtube video where he lost 5 mil in one day in the 80's but made it back few weeks later and then some.


----------



## Joules MM1

avion said:


> Tell us more Joules... what went wrong?
> 
> I watched youtube video where he lost 5 mil in one day in the 80's but made it back few weeks later and then some.




arrived early, the party goers were snobs   ....




gotta like that momo


----------



## avion

Joules MM1 said:


> arrived early, the party goers were snobs   ....
> 
> gotta like that momo






Feel u man, frustrating eh...

What are those triangles, did you enter again?


----------



## Joules MM1

day 2 of 9 days without sugar or carbs....try it   



again, thought yesterday was going to deliver the swing, so today, thus far, looks nice






avion said:


> Feel u man, frustrating eh...
> 
> What are those triangles, did you enter again?



arrows denote BTO up or STO down they are open posies.....some scaled


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> day 2 of 9 days without sugar or carbs....try it




Why?


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Why?




Ketogenic diet.

Can help with concentration/alertness and sustain energy levels rather than sugar highs/lows with a traditional high carb diet.


----------



## tech/a

skyQuake said:


> Ketogenic diet.
> 
> Can help with concentration/alertness and sustain energy levels rather than sugar highs/lows with a traditional high carb diet.




Is that similar to the 5/2 diet---more so way of systematic under eating?


----------



## skyQuake

tech/a said:


> Is that similar to the 5/2 diet---more so way of systematic under eating?




Yeah more systematic. Energy supposed to be more 'stable' after you go on keto, since brain starts using fat via Gluconeogenesis for energy, rather than carbs which are spiky and you get the ups and downs


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Yeah more systematic. Energy supposed to be more 'stable' after you go on keto, since brain starts using fat via Gluconeogenesis for energy, rather than carbs which are spiky and you get the ups and downs




Oh I know all that. It's just that I think its BS. You are going to be in a fog for a long time, longer than a few days and whats wrong with a sugar kick?? One of life's great pleasures  and rescue mechanisms when you're reaching for a bit of a boost.  If you have problems with spiking insulin from sugar and are not diabetic - exercise and add some muscle mass. 

:bounce::sheep:


And of course beer is full of carbs .... :bier:


----------



## Joules MM1

pmi ...battle of midway


----------



## avion

Joules MM1 said:


> pmi ...battle of midway
> 
> View attachment 63704




And then a persistent push back up... what say you Mr Joules?


----------



## Joules MM1

avion said:


> And then a persistent push back up... what say you Mr Joules?




apparently not .....limp biscuits with coffee anyone


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> apparently not .....limp biscuits with coffee anyone




What type of biscuit? Golden rough perhaps?!


----------



## Joules MM1

cynic said:


> What type of biscuit? Golden rough perhaps?!




crepe-du-long, followed by trape-du-long ....2 servings


----------



## Joules MM1

some cafe this turned out to be :eek3:

....truffle, not trap!


----------



## CanOz

I believe there could be a nice swing trade setting up on the BOBL. About 200 EU of risk...

Wait until NFP is outta the way....


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> I believe there could be a nice swing trade setting up on the BOBL. About 200 EU of risk...
> 
> Wait until NFP is outta the way....
> 
> 
> CanOz




Well the Bobl didn't setup as expected, but rocketed higher, so now we'll have to wait for another opportunity at a swing trade here...


----------



## CanOz

Back on deck after a successful house hunting trip in Brisbane!

Today's Dax and Eurostoxx levels for August 17 2015...On the equity indexes I'm looking for the possibility of a short covering rally to build today/tomorrow if we can stay in the lower end of the prior days range, sort of like channel lower...so expecting a rotational day slightly lower if Asia is tame...not a huge news day in Europe. If we take out the value area low of the composite I'll look for shorts then....I won't post the bonds but basically the Bund and Bobl are both sitting on the bracket VAH, so looking for longs off that and then short under it...


----------



## CanOz

*One-In-A-Billion "Hiccups" Are Happening All The Time, Citi Warns Something Is Wrong*

One-In-A-Billion "Hiccups" Are Happening All The Time, Citi Warns Something Is Wrong

Could explain some of the crazy moves we've seen this year....


----------



## CanOz

Yesterday played out as expected, rotational lower into a channel. The market appears to be getting too short and we could have a covering rally to the 3550 area as minimum. On the Dax this would be 11135 area. So we'll look to buy in and around the channel on supporting orderflow....of course This could involve another third probe lower first, or not.


----------



## CanOz

We're still consolidating in the small value area on the DAX and FESX. I'm still expecting a short covering rally targeting 3580 as minimum. 

3510 could be a buy zone to catch this as are levels 3484 to 3468. We may not even get to catch this move during the EU cash session, but we'll be watching for it regardless. I did manage to get 6 contracts on at an average of 3488 yesterday for a quick profit as the market auctioned up into the 3509 area, before rotating back toward the value area lows of the current range. However having left a 5 lot on my DOM i inadvertently scaled out all remaining at once instead of gradually as per my plan. Given the market retraced the move, i was none worse for the mistake this time.

You can see on the daily FESX (monthly VWAP), how the channel is developing, trapping shorts hopefully.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> trapping shorts hopefully.




Think they won that battle.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Think they won that battle.




Missed that, was eating dark chocolate Tim tams....


----------



## avion

Got chopped on DAX yesterday. How did you fella's go?


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Got chopped on DAX yesterday. How did you fella's go?




I was only looking for longs so i didn't get any setups....There were plenty of opportunities for little adhoc plays but i managed to stand aside, for once.

I really despise trading these grind lowers scenarios, its not easy to stay in a trade. Every time the market pops lower, it spikes to cover.



> Yesterday we pushed lower again for a third solid drive lower on the indices. Looking for these levels to hold and to try and buy one of these levels. However, 3392 on the FESX and 10636 are the zones where i'll change my view and look for shorts as we would have left value on the composite, taking out the bracket low on the DAX, which should see us head much lower. Yesterday i managed to stick to my plan and i had no planned setups occur.


----------



## avion

CanOz said:


> I really despise trading these grind lowers scenarios, its not easy to stay in a trade. Every time the market pops lower, it spikes to cover.




Yeah, staying in a trend is a challenge. I guess you have to have conviction/faith, macro outlook, whatever... to stick it out. Have not graduated to that level yet, eh...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Yeah, staying in a trend is a challenge. I guess you have to have conviction/faith, macro outlook, whatever... to stick it out. Have not graduated to that level yet, eh...




Yeah, exactly. You've really got to have confidence in the trade. When the market is not auctioning in one direction with allot of confidence, i find it impossible to read the order flow. That is usually when i find its time to sit out and wait until one of my plays sets up at a level that seems more structurally sound...Anyway, that's just my observations.


----------



## Joules MM1

ops exp thursday/friday this week for US http://www.cboe.com/tradtool/expirationcalendar.aspx

cupla things bout the trendy thing....in my tool bag..

similar qualities occuring cross several indexes give small tell on strength

just works for me....just saying...xjo and china h shares index both displayed same structure
hit the ratio, lift, fail, swing down to  next same ratio, lift, sells on strength down we go
as they brk the levels we head for bigger levels the risk actaully increases as the larger ratios 
attract heavier selling they are also met by deeper pockets who can pull the buy trigger and rip that faces of shorters .....




obviously, seeing and executing are and have always been two separate things


----------



## Joules MM1

this smaller exe hasnt played out yet.....trying to post and punch at the same time for the exercise

in real time .....you have to have your eye in on smaller bars, look for how bid gets smashed, maybe gives a small tell on who's rushing the sell ...volumes should lift in the peak of swells, dom players be like Marty Feldman




each day i drop a chart into a file and keep Brett Steebargers jpeg inside it...at the end of each week i clean 
out the file and review the charts, what's left inside is this:


----------



## CanOz

Thanks Joules, interesting.


----------



## Joules MM1

to round off ....scale em




closed out most shorts to get best of long

once the next ratio is hit reverse with larger trend


----------



## Joules MM1

last one

the challenge with any technique that has a linear frame work is that i need to keep several zone lengths in my head
so as size correctly (like the current play in the gif) and keep clear on what phase or how far pric eis likely to travel within each context ... not a small study, for sure


----------



## CanOz

Pretty nasty sell off going on, must be down 10% since Monday

I certainly didn't get the setup for a short covering rally and don't think i will this week...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Pretty nasty sell off going on, must be down 10% since Monday
> 
> I certainly didn't get the setup for a short covering rally and don't think i will this week...




yeah, spx cash futes just broke retested yesterdays cash pivot....a shift....

...isnt September worst  month of all months for longs?

lol, can never tell if US always manages to hold up for highs and hold down to lows into ops expiration thurs/fridays

edit



> More than 100 years of data show that the worst month for stocks is September




ha! ...and guess who put out these numbers 

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...Months-October-Think-Again.aspx#axzz3jLirGDA1


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> yeah, spx cash futes just broke retested yesterdays cash pivot....a shift....
> 
> ...isnt September worst  month of all months for longs?
> 
> lol, can never tell if US always manages to hold up for highs and hold down to lows into ops expiration thurs/fridays
> 
> edit
> 
> 
> 
> ha! ...and guess who put out these numbers
> 
> http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...Months-October-Think-Again.aspx#axzz3jLirGDA1




German bonds were starting to look bearish, until the equities hit that sweet spot and then rallied quick smart...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> German bonds were starting to look bearish, until the equities hit that sweet spot and then rallied quick smart...




maxwell smart?

11:45am 	CNY 		Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> I reckon early August is just about gonna be it (time to put dem hedges on), short of another Central Bank front lawn dump.
> View attachment 63611




...and now we await the lawn dump.


----------



## avion

Quite a day/night yesterday, wonder if it's beginning of something bigger...

Talk of correction has been happening for a while now.


----------



## notting

I don't think it's in anybodies interest to bring on a couple of state bankruptcies.
There should be a collective agreement to cut back a bit of oil production to bring things back on the level.

Kicking off the GFC, oil was at $160, there was a related food crises and the affordability for many basic services to transport goods in undeveloped and emerging markets.
It's all about oil and the setup is the opposite to what happened during the GFC, Perhaps we're on the cusp of the GFMB.  
Global Financial Mega Boom.

Oh yes and to all those pundits who chant like a frickin mantra that the Fed is desperate to "normalize" rates.  Ummm, no it isn't. 'Oh they need room to move in case there is a crisis!?' Ummm no.  They could do more QE even though it doesn't work, people love it, or they could cut interest rates down to -1,-2,-3,-4,-5,-6%>>>>>>
No one has to do anything and there is as much flex as you want!


----------



## PinguPingu

notting said:


> Oh yes and to all those pundits who chant like a frickin mantra that the Fed is desperate to "normalize" rates.  Ummm, no it isn't. 'Oh they need room to move in case there is a crisis!?' Ummm no.  They could do more QE even though it doesn't work, people love it, or they could cut interest rates down to -1,-2,-3,-4,-5,-6%>>>>>>
> No one has to do anything and there is as much flex as you want!




Yeah, the Swiss are already doing negative interest rates. Plus, the Fed could always go full Japan


----------



## CanOz

Big selloff yesterday certainly wiped out the chance of a short covering breakout of the channel. We've now left the value area on the composite (FESX) and are at unfair lows. We'll look for buyers on the lower end of the next value area and sellers above as the longer term bracket comes into play. I took no trades as my setups did not materialize. Nonetheless, there were plenty of opportunities for discretionary traders to sell pull backs to the VWAP.


----------



## CanOz

I see the PMI figure went over well....



> 09:45*(CN) CHINA AUG CAIXIN/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.1 V 48.2E (lowest since Mar 2009)- Output 46.6 (lowest since Nov 2011) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> I see the PMI figure went over well....




LOL


----------



## Joules MM1

cupla twitter "personalities" buying the dip 

obviously seasoned traders :bayer:

= well cooked


----------



## avion

Pheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewww! 

Got your longs Can?


----------



## Wysiwyg

I took on Planet America single handed. Wonder Woman zapped me, Captain America whacked me, Cyclops zapped me and Batman kapowed me. Foundations were shaking. Tall buildings came crashing down (again). How sad.


----------



## Joules MM1

and here come the stats..

Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader 4m4 minutes ago



			
				Jason Goepfert said:
			
		

> This is the highest the CBOE total put/call ratio has been this far into the day since at least 2004.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Seppo comments "it is officially risk off", "we are in bear market territory", "fear of the Feds rate rise", "I am a teapot", "I control the world", "I am good, just ask me", "China, we want you to base your economy on consumption"


----------



## Joules MM1

Wysiwyg said:


> Seppo comments "it is officially risk off", "we are in bear market territory", "fear of the Feds rate rise", "I am a teapot", "I control the world", "I am good, just ask me", "China, we want you to base your economy on consumption"




media flippancy






			
				McEnroe said:
			
		

> ...you can't be serious!


----------



## CanOz

Good Morning Europe...have fun!


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Good Morning Europe...have fun!




Misery certainly does like company!


----------



## notting

One stock in the Euro 600 in positive. ONE!!!


----------



## cynic

notting said:


> One stock in the Euro 600 in positive. ONE!!!



Don't tell me! Let me guess! Funerals r us!


----------



## PinguPingu

Feel like taking a sneaky long on the DAX given the capitulation last week. Too chicken.


----------



## Trembling Hand

PinguPingu said:


> Feel like taking a sneaky long on the DAX given the capitulation last week. Too chicken.




Tomorrow mornings DAX low would be the trade I reckon....... :grenade:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Tomorrow mornings DAX low would be the trade I reckon....... :grenade:




What's the stat for a Friday higher weekly close on a Monday gap down on the DAX?


----------



## Wysiwyg

U.S. Index Futures down massive again. There must be some large losses being booked. Me 4k down so far since the free dive.  The lesson is market irrational v trader solvent again. Boring.


----------



## kid hustlr

This is getting out of hand now


----------



## CanOz

9500 has a real chance if we can take out the low of today


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> 9500 has a real chance if we can take out the low of today




At this rate I don't think I will be getting any sleep tonight.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> At this rate I don't think I will be getting any sleep tonight.




Don't tell me your spreading US equities now?


----------



## Auslad

The icing on the cake will be when hostilities break out in the Korean Peninsula. It will be hard to imagine how far all markets globally would fall after this event. Should a nuclear device(s) be detonated, regulators of markets all around the world would close the markets completely.


----------



## kid hustlr

So where to from here? You'd imagine we get a short squeeze at some stage but what about medium/long term? Charts have just broken down to such a point where it's hard to see any value in 'investing?'


----------



## baby_swallow

I just sit back and let the Big Boyz battle tonite......I just count the dead bodies


----------



## notting

It's not a financial crises or debt crises.
Europe has learned to print, balance sheets are strong, there's no inflation and where swimming in cheap oil.
It couldn't be better........
Well, China may not be buying so much stuff and a few Countries could go under on the oil price.
Guess that's a bit of something to worry about.  Oil seems to have paralleled China's slow down.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Gotta be a spring near.


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Don't tell me your spreading US equities now?




Nah... just playing around with the futures on my personal account.

It's felt crashy all week last week so I had a few index shorts on to hedge my longer term investment portfolio. Managed to salvage ~50% of the losses on those longs.



kid hustlr said:


> So where to from here? You'd imagine we get a short squeeze at some stage but what about medium/long term? Charts have just broken down to such a point where it's hard to see any value in 'investing?'




I am guessing there will be policy response soon enough. China has plenty of scope to cut rates, EU will say "whatever it takes" again, Yellan might not raise in Sept... Those headline bots will be buying like it was 2012.


----------



## Firefly_au

notting said:


> It's not a financial crises or debt crises.
> Europe has learned to print, balance sheets are strong, there's no inflation and where swimming in cheap oil.
> It couldn't be better........
> Well, China may not be buying so much stuff and a few Countries could go under on the oil price.
> Guess that's a bit of something to worry about.  Oil seems to have paralleled China's slow down.
> 
> View attachment 63996




What we have here is your typical WW cyclical bear market, so we either need to sit on the sidelines or learn to short if we haven't before now, as that is the way to play profitably until the trend changes 

The commodities slump including the price of oil has been indicating for some time now that a bearish correction was coming due to a faltering real world economy including China and it appears the correction is under way now.


----------



## baby_swallow

Nasdaq O/N market just been suspended


----------



## PinguPingu

Nearest policy maker speech is the Fed's Lockhart at 3:55pm ET (US) or 5:55am AEST. 

This is what he said last:

"It will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead" with a rate hike vote.


----------



## notting

Firefly_au said:


> What we have here is your typical WW cyclical bear market, so we either need to sit on the sidelines or learn to short if we haven't before now, as that is the way to play profitably until the trend changes
> 
> The commodities slump including the price of oil has been indicating for some time now that a bearish correction was coming due to a faltering real world economy including China and it appears the correction is under way now.




So it's a cyclical bear market and a correction may be under way?  Think you need a stock dictionary.


----------



## baby_swallow

Things are really getting pretty ugly out there....
The Nikkei futures is now down almost 10%  even exceeding Shanghai..
Nasdaq is on limit down.

I have a gut feeling the US market will retest the low of Oct 2014 - same interest rise fear


----------



## satanoperca

skc said:


> China has plenty of scope to cut rates, EU will say "whatever it takes" again, Yellan might not raise in Sept... Those headline bots will be buying like it was 2012.




Cut rates is the problem, it doesn't work, it is like smoking, in the short to medium term no real negative effects on health, long term you are f---kd, same with rates. 

We are in a massive deflationary cycle, this is evident by the lack of inflation after massive printing/moeny supply.

Yallan will never ever ever raise rates, it will never happen, the US is f---kd. 

The real future play is how will China deal with this current crisis, my money is still on them.

They are at war, it is just a trade war, will they make the same mistakes as the US and Europe or are they smarter.

Time will tell.

Cheers - my brother is coming soon, Snr GFC.


----------



## skc

baby_swallow said:


> Things are really getting pretty ugly out there....
> The Nikkei futures is now down almost 10%  even exceeding Shanghai..
> Nasdaq is on limit down.
> 
> I have a gut feeling the US market will retest the low of Oct 2014 - same interest rise fear




And now Dow Jones and S&P all shut.

That's how you stop the selling!

SPY still going though.


----------



## skyQuake

when it moves it moves...


----------



## notting

skc said:


> I am guessing there will be policy response soon enough. China has plenty of scope to cut rates, EU will say "whatever it takes" again, Yellan might not raise in Sept... Those headline bots will be buying like it was 2012.




Yep!

It's possibly the best thing that could have happened to make China role out the real emergency measures and sell bonds and build mega what ever.  That'll fix oil, fix commodities and fu(k China even harder in the long term.
It's a beautiful thing!

Buffet made his biggest purchase ever just before this.

5% drop last week which history shows is usually followed by this -




Meanwhile on the emotional front OMG DOW Futures are -852 points (after no correction in 7 years it needs this so bad!!!)


----------



## Modest

ES just locked @ 1870


----------



## waterbottle

AUD getting smashed and US markets getting halted.

I am scared


----------



## Modest

The bloody month I start trading the futures the world markets crash.. LOL Lucky I am still in sim mode! Far out!


----------



## notting

DOW down 1000 points.  All those cashed up Chinese immigrants must have been playing the DOW too and still suffering from brainwashing.



> Chinese state media all blame Western economy for Chinese stock market crash!




Like yeah, we went first right!?

It's just the perfect Selling opportunity for a Commie to sell some 10 Year bonds, don't ya think?

Watch out for all those people that missed out on the Bull market,  here they come!


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> DOW down 1000 points.  All those cashed up Chinese immigrants must have been playing the DOW too and still suffering from brainwashing.
> 
> 
> 
> Like yeah, we went first right!?




Any chance of a S.E Asian conflict as a result of this? considering the recent moves by China & North Korea


----------



## notting

waterbottle said:


> Any chance of a S.E Asian conflict as a result of this? considering the recent moves by China & North Korea




China needed a distraction, North Korea does everything China tells it to do, in private.
China did not want the FED to raise rates.  Not sure they will achieve that.
World needs to re learn to 'ignore the little boy who cried wolf.' -China


----------



## shouldaindex

Huge declines based on speculation, creating a nice vacuum to suck back up.

Dow made up 5% in 30 minutes.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Think my head is about to explode...... the DAX!! :aliena:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Think my head is about to explode...... the DAX!! :aliena:




Some crazy $hit tonight. This is what happens when the whole market is traded by bots of various kinds that probably didn't include the last 10% correction in their backtest.

I can't decide when to go to bed....


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Some crazy $hit tonight. This is what happens when the whole market is traded by bots of various kinds that probably didn't include the last 10% correction in their backtest.
> 
> I can't decide when to go to bed....




Looks like the panic is over.   :couch:hide:


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Looks like the panic is over.   :couch:hide:




Not only was DOW open down 1000 pts, there were DOW component stocks down 15-20%. No sane person trade like that...

Latency was a huge issue tonight...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> No sane person trade like that...




No sane person would do this for a "Job"........  surely!


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Think my head is about to explode...... the DAX!! :aliena:




Currencies went crazy! Thanks to bots, some German dual listed stocks were briefly UP on the day


----------



## skc

skc said:


> I can't decide when to go to bed....




Time for bed. It won't surprise me if I wake up and US finish on the green... or down 8.2%.



Trembling Hand said:


> No sane person would do this for a "Job"........  surely!




It's not a job if you have a "passion for trading"!



skyQuake said:


> Currencies went crazy! Thanks to bots, some German dual listed stocks were briefly UP on the day




On a brighter note... the SPI is only down another 4% tomorrow, making my prediction looking better by the day.



skc said:


> For this year, I am picking XAO to finish at 4533, with a low of 4182.


----------



## sinner

Best lolchart of the day:

Volatility sellers anonymous. 




Down "only" 30% on a 5 day basis, was 50%.


----------



## wayneL

Waaay off those spectacular lows. Strong hands buying? Dead cat bounce due?

Hope?

PPT?

Why can't we just have a decent crash without the nonsense? :


----------



## satanoperca

wayneL said:


> Why can't we just have a decent crash without the nonsense? :




One step at a time, nothing ever moves in a straight line. I would expect a reasonable bounce today or tomorrow. 

To many see this as a buying opp, let them buy, we dont want things declining to fast.

Cheero


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Best lolchart of the day:
> 
> Volatility sellers anonymous.




Yeah thats a good one. I reckon the pre-market limit down rules added to the panic.


----------



## sinner

I can't go into details on the exact formula used in this graph, because I am actually using this one. But let's just say it compares a few different assets on their short term pairwise covariance and averages them.

Now normally I don't look at this graph, it's actually just a single component in part of a larger model and I basically only care about whether it is above or below a particular number. But I thought I'd whip it out since it is fun to look at during market crashes.

But as you can see, the so called carnage so far barely registers as a blip. Personally I'm a little surprised and would expect a this thing to spike on a VIX of 50 but the chart does not lie so I would argue based on this chart that there is likely to be a small retracement followed by some more pain.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> But as you can see, the so called carnage so far barely registers as a blip. Personally I'm a little surprised and would expect a this thing to spike on a VIX of 50 but the chart does not lie so I would argue based on this chart that there is likely to be a small retracement followed by some more pain.




Actually it was a wild ride but it was a long way away from a disorderly market. Have all the bots finally learnt how to behave?


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it was a wild ride but it was a long way away from a disorderly market. Have all the bots finally learnt how to behave?
> 
> View attachment 64007




i was  surprised by how orderly both sides are/have been ......which is nice


----------



## Joules MM1

passengers in the :22_yikes: short vix x3 fund


----------



## notting

Joules MM1 said:


> i was  surprised by how orderly both sides are/have been ......which is nice




Bots are losing on gaps between sessions.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it was a wild ride but it was a long way away from a disorderly market. Have all the bots finally learnt how to behave?




Nope, they just couldn't trade...





Peak liquidity in ES yesterday was the same as the lowest liquidity in ES in 2010 flash crash.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...een-flash-crash-august-24-2015-and-may-6-2010

From the snippet quoting CNN (other awesome snippets, tweets, pics in the link above)


> The circuit breakers were implemented more than 600 times on ETFs, the increasingly-popular securities that trade like stocks. ETFs hold a basket of stocks, removing the risk of betting on a single company. ETF.com examined the pricing action and discovered at least eight ETFs that showed "flash-crash" style drops at the opening of trading.
> 
> ETFs that experienced panic selling are far larger and wouldn't be expected to have that kind of turbulence. For example, the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY)* plummeted as much as 35% at its lows.*
> 
> That's a stunning move considering this BlackRock (BLK)-backed ETF is worth over $13 billion and is focused on stable American stocks that have a long history of paying dividends.
> 
> None of this ETF's top holdings -- like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Philip Morris Internationa (PM)l and McDonald's (MCD) -- suffered losses north of 11%.  It was even worse for the Guggenheim S&P 500 equal weight ETF (RSP). The $10 billion fund, which holds some well-known stocks like Chipotle (CMG) and ConAgra (CAG),* plummeted nearly 43% at one point on Monday.*
> 
> Another popular ETF that seeks to capitalize on the booming cybersecurity business *plummeted as much as 32%*. The ETF, PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK), has a market value of more than $1.2 billion.




I remember us arguing in past years about HFT and its impact on the market microstructure. Here is a post I made on ASF over 1 year ago:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28334


> If the microstructure of markets are broken, the pricing mechanism for capital assets is broken, which means information that the price imparts to the market is that much more noise and that much less signal.
> 
> ...
> 
> In complex systems consequences are almost always unintended, largely "unexpected" and failure modes therefore spread across the entire system instead of only affecting the perpetrators of any given action to which meaningful consequences can be ascribed.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sinner its a shame you got cooked on trading short term because I think you cannot look at this topic objectively. To suggest because the order book spreads out over 50 levels when they would normally be compacted into 10 during a fast market is proof that bots were not present is just wrong. They spread their quotes out further to compensate for the extra risk. That is just trading 101. I was casing them all night on the dax trying to get a fill and I can tell you it was not prop that produced the extra volume.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Sinner its a shame you got cooked on trading short term because I think you cannot look at this topic objectively. To suggest because the order book spreads out over 50 levels when they would normally be compacted into 10 during a fast market is proof that bots were not present is just wrong. They spread their quotes out further to compensate for the extra risk. That is just trading 101. I was casing them all night on the dax trying to get a fill and I can tell you it was not prop that produced the extra volume.




Apologies if I miscommunicated, I was not attempting to state the bots were not present, just that liquidity was much much lower (and hence the bots unable to transact as they normally do). 

It's hardly a controversial statement anymore! There is even recent academic research covering the recent reduction in liquidity across asset classes. Not to mention public statements about the huge drop in credit market liquidity have been made by BIS Shrapnel, BlackRock and various large fund managers. Equity market turnover in the US is down hugely from 2010 levels, basically back to 2000s level. In other countries it is actually lower. Don't even get me started on the growing relationship between corporate yield spreads, share buybacks and equity breadth. You don't have to agree or can interpret differently but those observations are all factual and objective.

It's obvious to see that if there was enough liquidity for bots to transact normally, the spread on liquid ETFs and their underlying would not have exploded to the extent that it did. 

Nor was I attempting to suggest the auction depth should be narrower than it was during rough sessions, I was merely sharing a chart comparing last nights auction depth with the auction depth of a (IMHO) much crazier market event (May 6 2010). As noted, there are other pics linked in the original link which provide other interesting examples of low liquidity trading in the NYSE pre-open auction.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> . As noted, there are other pics linked in the original link which provide other interesting examples of low liquidity trading in the NYSE pre-open auction.




Yeah that was what my post earlier about the pre-market limit down adding to the panic. I reckon if we weren't limit down on the futs what bot were running would have had a better idea of true prices.

You cannot blame them for pulling orders for the first 15 min because the regulations had taken away their pricing and input levels.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah that was what my post earlier about the pre-market limit down adding to the panic. I reckon if we weren't limit down on the futs what bot were running would have had a better idea of true prices.
> 
> You cannot blame them for pulling orders for the first 15 min because the regulations had taken away their pricing and input levels.




Don't get me wrong TH. I don't like HFT, but it isn't personal. It doesn't stop me from transacting in the market when I want/need to, and I am not afraid of it.

I am making a "macro"  statement: HFT is here and now the microstructure is f****d. It impacts me in that I am part of the whole. That's why I care.

Take a closer look at the snippet from CNN I quoted earlier. RSP moved 43%. This is a fund that holds nothing but S&P 500 component stocks. Not mentioned is SPLV, an ETF that holds the 100 lowest volatility S&P 500 component stocks. The previous closing price was $36.9 and it moved to a low of *$20* in the first 15 minutes of trading. How's that for an unleveraged large cap low vol fund!

It's not about "blame" per se. At least, if anyone/thing is to blame, it is us, for letting this happen.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yeah but how can all that be sole fault of bots. The regulations ensured that they couldn't participate in the open so humans panicked and hit what little was there. If it wasn't that it would of been something else. Just another day in paradise.


----------



## cynic

A certain FX provider that I, despite my past reservations, made the grievous error of giving another chance, somehow managed to delay the crediting of my account with a deposit by over four hours yesterday!!

By the time the money finally appeared in my account (early hours this morning), my positions had, of course, been long since toasted! 

My Germany30 long positons were autoclosed at the delightful price of 9347!


----------



## notting

Astoundingly most of the market safety triggers on the US exchange where hit as the market bolted up!  The 5% moves in 5mins kept the circuits breaking as massive short covering hit the boards. During this green event - 




One Insurance stock went from around the 40 to 5 to 35!!!
If only I'd seen that live!!!


----------



## avion

I feel like part of history now, witnessing all this. One day i will be telling my grandchildren... 'errr, i was there that day...' and survived to tell... ld:


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> I feel like part of history now, witnessing all this. One day i will be telling my grandchildren... 'errr, i was there that day...' and survived to tell... ld:




How do you know that tomorrow won't be worse........


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> How do you know that tomorrow won't be worse........




Sure, all part of it..., the key is to survive. This could last for a while.

Good times really, such volatility is welcome, shame i do not have experience to fully take advantage of it. Tell us TH how did you fare... you must of had a fabulous time?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> This could last for a while.



Hope so!



avion said:


> Good times really, such volatility is welcome, shame i do not have experience to fully take advantage of it. Tell us TH how did you fare... you must of had a fabulous time?




Very welcome moves. I've done all right but I'm not trading well. Reading it well just haven't been trading that well. Started a new gig and a little more worried about not making a fool of myself rather than hitting out large. And the DAX is getting big as far as AUD daily risk amounts.


----------



## shouldaindex

Shanghai -7.5%
Dow Jones -3.5%
Nikkei -4%
Hang Seng +0.5
All Ords +2.5
DAX + 3

That's a busy 24 hours, and I'm still yet to figure out what it was all about.


----------



## CanOz

Here's an article i wrote for a website on the Eurostoxx50 after yesterdays sell off.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Here's an article i wrote for a website on the Eurostoxx50 after yesterdays sell off.




Hi Can, what duration do you use for your VWAP? In the screenshot it says 255, is it 255 day VWAP?


----------



## Modest

What the hell is going on with the order flow on the ES???


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Hi Can, what duration do you use for your VWAP? In the screenshot it says 255, is it 255 day VWAP?




There are two continuous VWAPs, one has one years worth of rolling data (365 days), the other has 1000 days.


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> What the hell is going on with the order flow on the ES???






> 8:16*(CN) CHINA PBOC CUTS KEY RATES (both RRR and 1-year rates)- Cuts 1 year deposit rate from 2.00% to 1.75%- Cuts 1-year lending Rate from 4.85% to 4.60% more... (related USD/CNY FXI EUR/CNY EEM CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com




Bonds just sold off and the equity indices all spiked.


----------



## PinguPingu

Lol China, so much for holding off on ammo


----------



## CanOz

Same old same old, shorts run for cover and new weak longs jump in....then the market says "" it must be bad!

Shorts run out of steam, no new longs? WTF! New shorts initiate, weak longs liquidate....


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> There are two continuous VWAPs, one has one years worth of rolling data (365 days), the other has 1000 days.




But there aren't 365 trading days in one year? There are (at most, excluding holidays) five (one week of trading days) multiplied by fifty-two (one year of weeks) which equals 260. The other common "rule of thumb" calculation is twenty-one (one month of trading days) multiplied by twelve (one year of months) which equals 252...


----------



## sinner

Here is another weird observation.

Normally when there is marketwide trouble, money flows out of risk and into the USD and JPY. Even the USD runs to JPY.

Except...except this time.

This time it was EUR and JPY.

Weird...


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> But there aren't 365 trading days in one year? There are (at most, excluding holidays) five (one week of trading days) multiplied by fifty-two (one year of weeks) which equals 260. The other common "rule of thumb" calculation is twenty-one (one month of trading days) multiplied by twelve (one year of months) which equals 252...




No Reason Sinner. I don't trade off that chart i only use it for context. I'll post the 252 and the 260 for interest.


----------



## cynic

sinner said:


> Here is another weird observation.
> 
> Normally when there is marketwide trouble, money flows out of risk and into the USD and JPY. Even the USD runs to JPY.
> 
> Except...except this time.
> 
> This time it was EUR and JPY.
> 
> Weird...
> 
> View attachment 64025




Is it really that weird when you've got whatever it takes Drag it on with all fingers hovering above the mo money button?


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Here is another weird observation.
> 
> Normally when there is marketwide trouble, money flows out of risk and into the USD and JPY. Even the USD runs to JPY.
> 
> Except...except this time.
> 
> This time it was EUR and JPY.
> 
> Weird...




I guess this time the long USD was the very crowded trade. The trouble was essentially a growth scare, which potentially pushes back the USD rate rise... so the long USD hoard needs to unwind. But seriously, how's pushing back a 25bps rate rise by a few month actually mean in terms of returns?

Definitely not as much as the 3% rise in EUR/USD cross rate suggested.


----------



## CanOz

Just thinking of context here Sinner, but could the USD be experiencing outflows in this context, the Fed will delay the rate rise, the USD sells off...The EUR is negatively correlated.


----------



## CanOz

Here are the three VWAP Charts, 260, 252, 365.


----------



## notting

China cuts rates by .25 basis points and 15mins into trade there is not one stock on the S&P in the red and only four neutral.  Fricken unbelievable.
BHP looks at 5% gains in London.
After the worst 3 days ever, we have the best day of 2015 right now. 
What's the Shang Bang Dang going to do tomorrow? A rally of %12? I hope not.
We told you not to panic - CCP.  It's your fault now.
Wait till September .

.25 is a spud gun.  They better be about to role out something much bigger.


----------



## cynic

Can anybody here confirm whether or not the .HK 40 cash opened anywhere near or above 21953?
I seem to have gotten a very dubious fill on some limit orders this morning.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Can anybody here confirm whether or not the .HK 40 cash opened anywhere near or above 21953?
> I seem to have gotten a very dubious fill on some limit orders this morning.



CFD provider just acknowledged their error and corrected the fill. After all what's a mere 600 points between friends!?


----------



## notting

Chinese Dictatorship is pretending its not going to support the stock market any more but it's in there this morning!!
Trying to get the people imagining the market is ok on it's own now!


----------



## CanOz

Is that necessary Notting?


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Is that necessary Notting?




It's better to see what's happening but this probably isn't the place to debate that.  It's up to you.


----------



## avion

Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasurys In The Past Two Weeks

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...s-dumped-100-billion-treasurys-past-two-weeks

Crazy times indeed... 

Now they talking hyperinflation.


----------



## notting

> There you have it: in the past two weeks alone China has sold a gargantuan $106 (or more) billion in US paper just as a result of the change in the currency regime!




They are using their own stock market crash, to unsettle markets, so they can sell treasuries when everyone else is buying them.  This is typical of the Chinese.  They get the best price this way!  This is predictable if you know them!
Throughout the rising of the US$ they have kept the Yuan peg which is the surprising thing.  But not really.  It's food inflation they they have little control over, other than keeping the Yuan strong ,against the US$, dropping that is going to leave an awful lot of em very hungry!!!
If your starving and the jails are full, hurling yourself in front of a dictators tank isn't such a difficult decision.


----------



## tech/a

DAX

We resume normal programming
Following the scheduled pause.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> CFD provider just acknowledged their error and corrected the fill. After all what's a mere 600 points between friends!?




After this incident I decided it would be a good idea to reexamine some of my recent trades. It looks like something similar may have occurred yesterday. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the .HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20711 yesterday?


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> After this incident I decided it would be a good idea to reexamine some of my recent trades. It looks like something similar may have occurred yesterday. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the .HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20711 yesterday?




CFD provider has acknowledged an error and have adjusted the fill, however, their newly adjusted price still seems a long way shy of the open. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20820 yesterday?


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> CFD provider has acknowledged an error and have adjusted the fill, however, their newly adjusted price still seems a long way shy of the open. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20820 yesterday?




Can't comment on the CFD Cynic, but the actual futures opened at 21153 yesterday on the HSI.


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Can't comment on the CFD Cynic, but the actual futures opened at 21153 yesterday on the HSI.




Many thanks. I'll be taking this one further with them.


----------



## Joules MM1

t. minus .....and we're in launch positions already ?


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> CFD provider has acknowledged an error and have adjusted the fill, however, their newly adjusted price still seems a long way shy of the open. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20820 yesterday?




Hey Cynic  ...... two questions;     

Name of the CFD provider, and

Do you have Charts of the prices they filled you at?


Make it three questions   .... "City"??


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> Hey Cynic  ...... two questions;
> 
> Name of the CFD provider, and
> 
> Do you have Charts of the prices they filled you at?
> 
> 
> Make it three questions   .... "City"??




Yes and no. 

Yes it was indeed "City" (which as we already know was acquired by "Gain" last year),

and no I don't have charts, but I can tell you the erroneous prices I was given along with the subsequent amendments.

Firstly for the purpose of completeness, I make mention of the fact that,  inside of market hours, spreads of 10 and 20 points respectively apply to the Cash and Aug 15 CFD contracts for this particular CFD provider. This information should be taken into account when comparing with prices offered elsewhere. 

On the 26th I had limit buy orders for their Hong Kong 40 Cash CFD filled minutes after the open at prices ranging from 21480 to 21973.  The size of the gap down at open combined with the range of levels on my limit orders alerted to the fact that something was clearly amiss. So I challenged the validity of same and thankfully it was promptly acknowledged to be an error and the four incorrect fills were all amended to 21376. At this point I was delighted that my provider had responded promptly and had accepted responsibility for their product performance.

If it hadn't been for the fact that the market had clearly gapped below at least three of those limit orders my suspicions might not have been so thoroughly aroused , and upon reflection, I started to get the distinct feeling that I could vaguely remember having noticed something similar at least once before. So I decided to investigate further by examining some recent trades.

Sure enough, seconds after the open on the 25th (previous day), a short limit order for the Aug 15 CFD had filled at 20691.  Again I asked to have this investigated. Again an error was acknowledged and the price amended to 20800. 

This last one will be queried further, as the price still seems somewhat inferior to the price that I would have expected based upon the market open of the actual futures contract.

The fact that I have now encountered this error on two consecutive days (I haven't looked back much farther ) leads me to wonder whether this has occurred by genuine mishap or intentional design! Much as I sincerely hope it is the former, I am becoming increasingly fearful that it may be the latter.


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> t. minus .....and we're in launch positions already ?




we have separations...........


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> A bunch of US charts. Doesn't look awesome. :grenade:




sinner macro update (click the little green arrow from above quote to see the previous charts)

VIX - if you pay heed to the 15/VIX exposure rule mentioned in previous post we'd be looking at 50% maximum asset allocation to stocks at the current implied vol of 30:




Breadth. Looks even more horrible than it did before. But at least the index is catching down with reality:



TED spread, that rising slope mentioned previously definitely caught up with the markets, I could talk for days about what that blip at the end means:



sinners crude credit ratio JNK to IEF, nothing good to see here, we might speculatively be at some form of short term support:



Industrial metals, starting to get a little nuts. I reckon we will bottom soon and range for a year or ten:


----------



## sinner

Brent. Last time it was "cheaper input costs" vs "holy crap where is demand?" ...um...demand? hello? where are you? I heard a few traders say this is really bearish and the whole cheaper input costs meme is stupid (because a growing economy commands higher energy prices, not the other way around). $50 is not looking like support:



Baltic Dry Index BDI. Dry shipping down ~30% off the recent highs:



AAI investor sentiment (http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey) 6 month outlook. Looks like the previous migration has reversed, with bulls and bears alike departing the neutral category in ~equal amounts:



No valuations chart this time. Market Cap/GVA was a little bit higher than 1.8 as of last post, so you can approximately impute the current valuation based off the SP500 decline.


----------



## CanOz

Thanks sinner....much appreciated


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Thanks sinner....much appreciated




sticking with index longs hsi/spx/xjo until price says otherwise ......looked to me like some major lifting got done this morning.....the immediacey of it says stick with the levels 

and on we go


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> sticking with index longs hsi/spx/xjo until price says otherwise ......looked to me like some major lifting got done this morning.....the immediacey of it says stick with the levels
> 
> and on we go




I'm a bit long, a tad under 30% net long in mostly megacaps everywhere but the US. a splash of REIT. The rest is in cash and gold. But then again, that's not too different from my allocation for the last few months.


----------



## Joules MM1

pats pockets....it was here last time i looked.... 

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/a-team-of-traders-at-goldman-sachs-lost-50-million-2015-8


> Goldman Sachs’ distressed debt trading team is hurting.
> 
> The team has lost between $US50 million and $US60 million
> so far this year, according to Laura J Keller and Michael J Moore at Bloomberg.
> 
> The distressed debt trading team sits inside the bank’s fixed income
> unit in the securities division.
> 
> The U.S. investment bank lost money on a positions in the energy
> sector and on the bonds of paper producer Verso Corp., according to the Bloomberg report.





and


> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.



well, derr

:bekloppt: bye bye team


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Yes it was indeed "City"
> 
> On the 26th I had limit buy orders for their Hong Kong 40 Cash CFD filled minutes after the open at prices ranging from *21480 to 21973*.
> 
> the four incorrect fills were all amended to *21376. *
> 
> Sure enough, seconds after the open on the 25th (previous day), a short limit order for the Aug 15 CFD had filled at *20691*.  Again I asked to have this investigated. Again an error was acknowledged and the price amended to 20800.





Figured it might be City!

They were taking a few liberties with the gaps!    At least they adjusted it once they were sprung but typically dodgy.


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> Figured it might be City!
> 
> They were taking a few liberties with the gaps!    At least they adjusted it once they were sprung but typically dodgy.




Customer service were quick to investigate and remedy the fills and were also very patient when handling my complaint. So I am thankful for that aspect of the situation.


----------



## CanOz

Second leg to the bottom nearly ready.....Europe is showing signs that the rally is losing steam. The US however could be better supported on the next leg down....

So all eyes on Asia to day to kick things off...like this:



> 09:30*(CN) CHINA JULY INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: -2.9% V -0.3% PRIOR; YTD: -1.0% V -0.7% PRIOR (related EUR/USD USD/CNY AUD/USD PGJ FXI EUR/CNY EEM RUB/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com




Anyway, lets see how things pan out, but I've kept lots of powder dry for this next one...


----------



## skyQuake

Reckon that shakeout last night on the ES as very bullish. All the short term longs get stopped out, only to see the market much higher.
Retail will then start shorting which will help fuel the next leg up


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Reckon that shakeout last night on the ES as very bullish. All the short term longs get stopped out, only to see the market much higher.
> Retail will then start shorting which will help fuel the next leg up




Yup...I was in some nice profits with some DJIA longs when I checked it at 4am. 

I woke to find my stops 200 pts below triggered.

Thanks Mr Market.

P.s. Made up for it with some crude long on the break of $40.


----------



## Joules MM1

skyQuake said:


> Reckon that shakeout last night on the ES as very bullish. All the short term longs get stopped out, only to see the market much higher.
> Retail will then start shorting which will help fuel the next leg up




#spx ....that ya standard pully on the halfway mark? ..still looks like plenty of fuel there
and plenty of nervous nellys for a slopnchop fest 

....so, who wants to hold over the weekend eh?


----------



## Joules MM1

#xjo ....had all its chances....even tho happy retail longs getting their fills

blame the sugar industry, mkay


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> #xjo ....had all its chances....even tho happy retail longs getting their fills
> 
> blame the sugar industry, mkay




Let me try my hand at this cryptic/gibberish useless post thing:

$dax...............likes chicken feet....meanwhile the bucket is full

blame Joules MM1, mkay :dunno:

Take a reality check: you trade CFDs with City Index. You're not whoever you follow on twitter.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Let me try my hand at this cryptic/gibberish useless post thing:
> 
> $dax...............likes chicken feet....meanwhile the bucket is full
> 
> blame Joules MM1, mkay :dunno:
> 
> Take a reality check: you trade CFDs with City Index. You're not whoever you follow on twitter.




well done

youre getting there

...never traded city index 



			
				google said:
			
		

> ban·ter
> ˈban(t)ər/
> noun
> noun: banter
> 
> 1.
> the playful and friendly exchange of teasing remarks.
> "there was much singing and good-natured banter"
> synonyms:	repartee, witty conversation, raillery, wordplay, cut and thrust, kidding, ribbing, badinage, joshing
> "a brief exchange of banter"
> 
> verb
> verb: banter; 3rd person present: banters; past tense: bantered; past participle: bantered; gerund or present participle: bantering
> 
> 1.
> talk or exchange remarks in a good-humored teasing way.
> "the men bantered with the waitresses"
> synonyms:	joke, jest, quip; More
> informaljosh, wisecrack
> "sightseers were bantering with the guards"
> 
> Origin


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> well done
> 
> youre getting there
> 
> ...never traded city index




OK I picked the wrong bucket, but you trade the bucket. You're not the guy watching the order flow, to actually know when retail is bidding or not, or whatever your cryptic gibberish is insinuating you think you know. 

How do you know it wasn't some algo on the long getting filled? Or the Norwway SWF? Or me, as retail, but I'm really unhappy about it? 

You don't. It's gibberish with 0 utility.

I, for one, assume you actually have a brain, and would prefer to see posts that reflect the use of alleged brain.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Let me try my hand at this cryptic/gibberish useless post thing:
> 
> $dax...............likes chicken feet....meanwhile the bucket is full
> 
> blame Joules MM1, mkay :dunno:
> 
> Take a reality check: you trade CFDs with City Index. You're not whoever you follow on twitter.




You've got a mean streak in you at times haven't you sinner? Is it just after you get your head handed to you in an FX trade or something?


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> You've got a mean streak in you at times haven't you sinner? Is it just after you get your head handed to you in an FX trade or something?




Yeah that must be it? 

sinners trading checklist:

* Trade an instrument that I wouldn't touch with a 10m pole these days.
* Lose big.
* Come on ASF and exercise the mean streak to make myself feel better.

Can't go home till I've ticked off all three.

Why not consider all the possibilities? Perhaps I'm not mean? Perhaps I call things as I see them? Perhaps that actually represents a better grade of content than Joules mythologising the market for...I dunno what useful purpose?

Who knows


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Yeah that must be it?
> 
> sinners trading checklist:
> 
> * Trade an instrument that I wouldn't touch with a 10m pole these days.
> * Lose big.
> * Come on ASF and exercise the mean streak to make myself feel better.
> 
> Can't go home till I've ticked off all three.
> 
> Why not consider all the possibilities? Perhaps I'm not mean? Perhaps I call things as I see them? Perhaps that actually represents a better grade of content than Joules mythologising the market for...I dunno what useful purpose?
> 
> Who knows





Fair enough....


----------



## skc

I want to be this guy!



> As financial markets got crazy this week, many people turned cautious. Some were paralysed. Not the 36-year-old day trader known by the Internet handle CIS.
> 
> CIS had been shorting futures on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average since mid-August, wagering it would fall. By the market close on Monday, a paper profit of $US13 million was staring him in the face. He kept building the position. When he cashed out late that night, a collapse in New York had caused his profit to double.
> 
> Instead of celebrating, he kept trading. He started betting the market had bottomed. When he finally took his winnings off the table on Tuesday, he tweeted, "That's the end of my epic rebound trade." His profit, he said, had almost tripled.
> 
> "It was a perfect trade," said Naoki Murakami, who follows CIS on Twitter and whose markets blog has made him a minor celebrity in his own right.
> 
> Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-m...akes-48-million-20150828-gja58s#ixzz3k5bfBDVw


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> I want to be this guy!




Bloomberg did a long piece on that guy laat year. Apparently he is famous amongst traders there.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-moving-japan-made-more-than-1-million-trades

From what I remember it was short term mom style, I guess the microstructure in Japan equities must be quite unique.


----------



## cynic

sinner said:


> OK I picked the wrong bucket, but you trade the bucket. You're not the guy watching the order flow, to actually know when retail is bidding or not, or whatever your cryptic gibberish is insinuating you think you know.
> 
> How do you know it wasn't some algo on the long getting filled? Or the Norwway SWF? Or me, as retail, but I'm really unhappy about it?
> 
> You don't. It's gibberish with 0 utility.
> 
> I, for one, assume you actually have a brain, and would prefer to see posts that reflect the use of alleged brain.




We don't always get what we want, but if we try sometimes, we just might find, that we get what we need!!


----------



## nulla nulla

cynic said:


> We don't always get what we want, but if we try sometimes, we just might find, that we get what we need!!




Hmmmm, hum a few bars and i'll remember who wrote it. I'm sure it was in my past somewhere.

Rolling Stones.


----------



## barney

nulla nulla said:


> Hmmmm, hum a few bars and i'll remember who wrote it. I'm sure it was in my past somewhere.
> 
> Rolling Stones.




Classic stuff indeed

To put it into Mick's real words however  ... this is how he pronounced it ...


"You caint always git wat you wan" ......   The English language at its best


----------



## cynic

nulla nulla said:


> Hmmmm, hum a few bars and i'll remember who wrote it. I'm sure it was in my past somewhere.
> 
> Rolling Stones.




Darn it! I've been sprung plagiarising! I knew I should have used quote tags!!


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Bloomberg did a long piece on that guy laat year. Apparently he is famous amongst traders there.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-moving-japan-made-more-than-1-million-trades
> 
> From what I remember it was short term mom style, I guess the microstructure in Japan equities must be quite unique.




Yes... it was mentioned in another thread... probably whilst you were taking a break from ASF.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28911&p=842333&viewfull=1#post842333


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> Yes... it was mentioned in another thread... probably whilst you were taking a break from ASF.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28911&p=842333&viewfull=1#post842333




A modern day Livermore, pyramids the hell out of winning possies!


----------



## SuperGlue

Latest article about the super trader in the recent market crash.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...-trader-makes-48-million-20150828-gja58s.html


----------



## sinner

Could we bounce for a bit from here? Sure, I guess anything is possible. 

But I'd say the probability of further rises is dropping each day, it wouldn't be too surprising if last weeks high was the highest high for the next 21-42 days.

So far, no signs of a lawn dump/money cannon by the CBs, pretty much the only thing I think will save last weeks entire move from getting faded.


----------



## montauk66

dow down 1%


----------



## shouldaindex

I'm leaning towards just a mini-bear of around 6 months which most of it has already happened. 

That's predicated on China not causing a major economic event (earnings), and using 12 month PE multiples and not Shiller 10 year (price).

I would love to see another 10% off due to China/Fed worries in the volatile September/October period.


----------



## sinner

shouldaindex said:


> That's predicated on China not causing a major economic event (earnings), and using 12 month PE multiples and not Shiller 10 year (price).




Using TTM earnings has a major issue: the assumption that future earnings will be the same or higher, regardless of how high or low profit margins are. Profit margins are highly mean reverting.

I'd advise using a valuation metric that takes the mean reverting nature of the business cycle (and hence profit margins) into account. CAPE, Market Cap/GDP, Price/Revenues, etc all seem to provide much more useful forecasts than TTM P/E or FOPE.


----------



## PinguPingu

Anyone explain why the VIX futures are going crazy? Its higher than the black Monday last week.


----------



## sinner

PinguPingu said:


> Anyone explain why the VIX futures are going crazy? Its higher than the black Monday last week.




Got a screenshot or something? I have it quoting under 30. 

ES futs are only down about 50 points off last nights NY open, nothing to warrant a doubling in VIX.


----------



## sinner

Ah, nevermind buddy, I see what you are talking about, VIX futs not the actual VIX.

Remember, VIX futs are speculations on where the VIX will quote on expiry, and the VIX is itself a market implied forecast for volatility.


----------



## PinguPingu

sinner said:


> Remember, VIX futs are speculations on where the VIX will quote on expiry, and the VIX is itself a market implied forecast for volatility.





Ahh yeah, so basically more people are thinking that short term (Sep, Oct) VIX is likely to print even higher. You can roll them over indefinitely though?


----------



## sinner

PinguPingu said:


> Ahh yeah, so basically more people are thinking that short term (Sep, Oct) VIX is likely to print even higher. You can roll them over indefinitely though?




No. The contango will break you in no time flat. 

I had to logscale this chart to make it viewable. 

VXX ETF invests in weekly (used to be monthly) VIX futs to try and replicate the intraday return of VIX futs.

As you can see...down 99.8% from inception in 2009.





Admittedly not the most conducive environment to be long vol, but the principle holds across most investments.

Being systematically long (or short!) vol is *not* going to win in the long run. This is options trading, need to know the ropes.

EDIT: I meant to say *NOT*


----------



## Wysiwyg

A fairly significant drop unfolding. :badsmile:


----------



## sinner

> So far, no signs of a lawn dump/money cannon by the CBs, pretty much the only thing I think will save last weeks entire move from getting faded.




Associated Press already banging on the drum

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/wobbly-euro-economy-bigger-push-central-bank-33446420



> Analysts are already talking about when and how the European Central Bank might extend its 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) stimulus program that has been running for the past six months in an attempt to boost the modest recovery in the 19 countries that use the euro.
> 
> They say ECB President Mario Draghi will likely use his news conference Thursday to underline the bank's willingness to increase its efforts, if needed, to push up stubbornly weak inflation or limit any damage from the economic troubles in China.




Sorry Mario, but $1 trillion over 3 years is not going to cut it anymore.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Wysiwyg said:


> A fairly significant drop unfolding. :badsmile:




Nah bottom in.......


----------



## PinguPingu

sinner said:


> No. The contango will break you in no time flat.
> 
> I had to logscale this chart to make it viewable.
> 
> VXX ETF invests in weekly (used to be monthly) VIX futs to try and replicate the intraday return of VIX futs.
> 
> As you can see...down 99.8% from inception in 2009.
> 
> Admittedly not the most conducive to be long vol, but the principle holds across most investments.
> 
> 
> It is a weird situation. Sure, growth is anemic but numbers coming through lately are not catastrophic. US is ok, Germany holding everyone up, everyone knew China was fibbing a little (more). Fed will say whatever it takes to placate. I don't see the catalyst.
> 
> Being systematically long (or short!) vol is going to win in the long run. This is options trading, need to know the ropes.




Right. So in this case with VIX in 'contango', could it be a viable strategy to short VIX futs (assuming you could withstand a bigger 2011 style or GFC spike situation arose ) as eventually Vol must drop? (in the general sense and to meet the spot price), and given its market allows you to roll each month. 

But I would think less risky would be to do it through options as you say.

It is a weird situation. Sure, growth is aenemic but the numbers coming through lately are not catastrophic. US ok, EU still struggling but Deutshie holding everyone up. Everyone knew China was fibbing a little (more). Fed will say whatever to placate. I don't see the catalyst other than shakeout.


----------



## sinner

PinguPingu said:


> Right. So in this case with VIX in 'contango', could it be a viable strategy to short VIX futs (assuming you could withstand a bigger 2011 style or GFC spike situation arose ) as eventually Vol must drop? (in the general sense and to meet the spot price), and given its market allows you to roll each month.




Sorry, I meant to say being systematically long or short vol *not* going to win in the long run. Edited the above quoted post.

The VIX is never in contango. VIX futs are sometimes in contango and sometimes in backwardation. Currently backwardated.

Yes, if you think realised volatility will be lower than implied vol or backwardation to change back to contango, then short VIX futs. There is an ETF for this as well, SVXY and XIV. Shorting vol when it's low and rising is bad for your health, just like buying vol is bad when it's high and falling.

There's nothing magical about VIX trading strats, it's more complicated in every way than trading the underlying. If you want to bet on the VIX it is not just about the direction of the market but the absolute and relative (to historical and forecast) levels of the index, which basically tracks implied volatility. So, to win, you need to correctly predict the markets direction, volatility, and so on. 

Need to know the ropes.



> But I would think less risky would be to do it through options as you say.




Might be worth learning the basics, VIX is the volatility forecast as implied by a large range of short term options on the big SP500 futures. It *is* options.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah bottom in.......



Duration and intensity --- gets me every time.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

can't see this volatility ending until US raise rates, we have had Greece, China and just waiting for the US interest rate issue to clear

think they missed an opportunity a few weeks ago


----------



## sinner

Toyota Lexcen said:


> can't see this volatility ending until US raise rates, we have had Greece, China and just waiting for the US interest rate issue to clear
> 
> think they missed an opportunity a few weeks ago




I don't disagree that we might continue seeing a period of high volatility. It's possible!

But bets on volatility taken now will only be profitable if volatility rises at a faster rate than the market has already discounted. If volatility remains high but not rising (fast enough), long vol bets are mathematically gonna lose. The fun thing about options is that this doesn't mean that short vol bets are mathematically going to win either.

Where's wayneL or mazza when you need them.


----------



## PinguPingu

Appreciate the explanations, sinner. 





sinner said:


> The fun thing about options is that this doesn't mean that short vol bets are mathematically going to win either.




I'm going to guess this is because of the risk by the nature of vol. if its low, it at any time could simply spike again? Or this just a general options thing. 


(Also sorry for possibly derailing banter)


----------



## sinner

PinguPingu said:


> Appreciate the explanations, sinner.
> 
> I'm going to guess this is because of the risk by the nature of vol. if its low, it at any time could simply spike again? Or this just a general options thing.
> 
> 
> (Also sorry for possibly derailing banter)




Options have a bunch of attributes referred to as "the greeks" or "options greeks":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeks_(finance)

Without getting too deep into it (and it goes real deep lol), some of these attributes, mostly theta (time decay), can cause long vol options to lose value, even if the volatility is rising.


----------



## hhse

What is the reason for wanting to go bullish on the VIX when it is currently in backwardation?
The VIX is usually in contango, so wouldn't it be better to go bearish on the VIX instead...


----------



## sinner

hhse said:


> What is the reason for wanting to go bullish on the VIX when it is currently in backwardation?
> The VIX is usually in contango, so wouldn't it be better to go bearish on the VIX instead...




See for yourself 

https://marketsci.wordpress.com/201...dly-following-the-vix-futures-term-structure/
https://marketsci.wordpress.com/201...ing-volatility-etps-term-structure-following/


----------



## sinner

Unless right now is the capitulation high in the USD (seems unlikely!), I am not really sure how this support can really hold for AUDUSD. At best we get a messy range here.

1h AUDUSD spot


----------



## hhse

sinner said:


> See for yourself
> 
> https://marketsci.wordpress.com/201...dly-following-the-vix-futures-term-structure/
> https://marketsci.wordpress.com/201...ing-volatility-etps-term-structure-following/




As acknowledged by study, it's too simplistic to verify. Things that were not considered were: negative roll yields on volatility products; volatility tends to spike, and not gradually creep up. Also, entry/exit points - it's easy enough to pick in hindsight.

Having said that, I'm sure there are people trading it successfully. However, it would be easier to go bearish volatility during times of backwardation as these last for shorter time frames as can be seen from the urls graph.


----------



## sinner

hhse said:


> As acknowledged by study, it's too simplistic to verify. Things that were not considered were: negative roll yields on volatility products; volatility tends to spike, and not gradually creep up. Also, entry/exit points - it's easy enough to pick in hindsight.
> 
> Having said that, I'm sure there are people trading it successfully. However, it would be easier to go bearish volatility during times of backwardation as these last for shorter time frames as can be seen from the urls graph.




marketsci trades about half of their client money using a strategy based on this foundation with good results. I think the other half uses the same foundation as a partial signal on VIX ETP mean reversion trades. The required refinements to turn it into a proper strat are not too hard to find in the blogosphere, lots and lots of people researching the VIX ETPs now 

Term structure (buy backwardation, sell contango) is a valid signal in a lot of commodity futures as well (decent results had from doublesorting with momentum). The basic premise is that backwardation is the result of current demand being higher than future demand, so if you can catch the instrument as the term structure turns you will probably be able to front-run a bunch of demand. (here is a realtime example of demand causing backwardation http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...a-distorts-mid-east-oil-price-baffles-traders)

What you're describing is essentially the ability to pick tops and bottoms in the term structure, but these other strategies are simply betting on the momentum of the current term structure.

--
On another note, it looks like another night of weakness in US markets == EUR strength. By my available measurements (SWFX Sentiment Index), it doesn't really look like the market is crowded, so I doubt this is a short squeeze or anything. Money flowing in weird directions.


----------



## CanOz

I'm guessing the bund /eurostoxx is showing a similar correlation...where is the risk off trade going if it's not into interest rate products?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wicked selloff U.S. near the close. Didn't know their match up was before close as opposed to our 10 mins. after the close match up.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> I'm guessing the bund /eurostoxx is showing a similar correlation...where is the risk off trade going if it's not into interest rate products?




Was thinking the same thing. ZH (take it with a grain of salt obviously) suggested mechanics seem to be different at the moment. Where is everyone running for cover?

EDIT: Then again why would you buy a bond yield nothing


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> I'm guessing the bund /eurostoxx is showing a similar correlation...where is the risk off trade going if it's not into interest rate products?




90 day bills? physical cash? gold? overseas? credit money doesnt have to slosh around in the system, paying off debt causes it to be destroyed.

theres no meaningful long term negative correlation between stocks and gov bonds, the relationship youre expecting only really got underway in 2007. keep in mind that the long term return for US stocks and US bonds since 1982 is actually pretty similar.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> where is the risk off trade going if it's not into interest rate products?


----------



## shouldaindex

Off August Lows:

Hang Seng 0%
ASX 3%
FTSE 3%
Dow Jones 4%
Shanghai 11%

Europe, U.S expected looking at gains tonight based on futures.


----------



## CanOz

shouldaindex said:


> Europe, U.S expected looking at gains tonight based on futures.




A gap open you mean?


----------



## shouldaindex

An hour ago it looked like it, looks like futures have pared back some of the expected gap.


----------



## Smurf1976

sinner said:


> 90 day bills? physical cash? gold? overseas? credit money doesnt have to slosh around in the system, paying off debt causes it to be destroyed.




I don't have any figures, but if the market loses say $10 billion of total value then that's really just a reflection of the current price of shares. There doesn't need to be anywhere near $10 billion of money actually removed from the market, all it needs is a few keen sellers and a lack of buyers.

Borrowed money is another one. If you've got debt and can't find a means to invest it profitably then simply handing the money back to the bank, thus making it effectively disappear, is a very valid option.


----------



## sinner

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't have any figures, but if the market loses say $10 billion of total value then that's really just a reflection of the current price of shares. There doesn't need to be anywhere near $10 billion of money actually removed from the market, all it needs is a few keen sellers and a lack of buyers.




Yup, didn't we have a conversation about this re Gina Reinhart in another thread yesterday? 

The market losing $10b is, as you say, a valuation not cashflow metric. But regardless of volume, those who sold will receive a credit for their sale. If the purchase was on margin then a goodly chunk of that credit will be returned to the margin lender. The rest has to go somewhere, it's an axiom of accounting.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

According to Goldman Sacks group, S&P 500 would approach its all-time high in December 2015 and their year end target is 2100. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...history-shows-u-s-stocks-rebound-needs-months

When Will It End? History Shows U.S. Stocks Rebound Needs Months

Others are even more optimistic. For example Oppenheimer is calling S & P 500 at 2311.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/02/s-bold-call-2311-for-the-sp-500-by-year-end.html

Oppenheimer's bold call: 2,311 for the S&P 500 by year-end

After this selloff, globally markets should rebound strongly in the coming weeks and months. I believe current global selloff and volatility has created opportunities in almost all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontiers markets. Frontier markets have more opportunity on valuation and growth. Within 2 decades, the Frontier Markets will be home to nearly half of the world’s population.

Why invest in frontier markets?

They have rapidly rising middle class 

They are some of the world’s fastest growing economies

They have more undervalued stock markets in the world 

Some investors view Asian and African frontier markets as a more attractive investment destination than emerging markets. There are great opportunities in frontier markets such as Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nigeria and Kenya.

In addition, current situation has created another great opportunity. We should not forget following two things as well.

•Interest rates low
•Commodity inflation nil

Companies in some industries such as Grain Elevators, meat companies, Airlines, ship and aircraft builders etc will be next winners in the global markets. Commodity currencies will go down further. Frontier markets will have more opportunities due to attractive valuation. Their currencies are also stable. 

There will be great opportunities in DOW and NASDAQ as well. In addition, there will be emerging commodities such as Tea and solar. Finally there will be more demand for defensive stocks such as health care and food related stocks. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Associated Press already banging on the drum
> 
> http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/wobbly-euro-economy-bigger-push-central-bank-33446420
> 
> Sorry Mario, but $1 trillion over 3 years is not going to cut it anymore.




Warming up the money cannon:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ummets-commiting-to-more-QE-if-necessary.html


> Mr Dragh repeats his comments on QE flexibility. The ECB is ready to "adapt the parameters of the programme" if needs be.





> The ECB has shifted the issue share limit of bonds it is able to buy from 25pc to 33pc, in order to ensure "smooth" and "complete" execution.




Nice try Mario, but I think you and Janet are going to end up wheeling out the big gun.


----------



## sinner

EDIT: LOL ignore me, I forgot to have my coffee this morning.


----------



## shouldaindex

So what are the chances of Yellen doing QE4 instead of a rate hike?


----------



## sinner

shouldaindex said:


> So what are the chances of Yellen doing QE4 instead of a rate hike?




Rate hike is not happening man.

I remember I was in Hong Kong about 6 months ago for work, was watching Bloomberg with a colleague and all the talking heads were giving off very convincing noises about rate hikes and so on.

At the time the market implied probability of rate hike in September was like 70-80%.

I was trying to explain to him how they can't hike rates, because it would entail a reduction in their balance sheet (or significant real GDP growth) and I just couldn't see balance sheet reduction (or GDP growth) happening.

Fast forward to today, market implied probability of rate hike in Sept is <20%, basically the market is now pricing for March 2016 rate hike. Most everyone betting on the curve to steepen also got creamed as it continued to flatten.

Ask yourself, do you think the Fed balance sheet will contract or expand by March 2016? GDP to contract or expand? Because however you answer that is also the answer to the probability of rate hike.

As for QE, well, so long as the US Federal budget has a deficit larger than the trade deficit, I think we can expect more QEs and POMOs from the Fed. The less Treasury flow the rest of the world buys, the more flow the US corporate sector and Federal Reserve itself must buy.


----------



## PinguPingu

No rate hike = no change in liquidity for EM's = Shanghai bounce next weel?


----------



## shouldaindex

I'm unsure how the U.S Market reacts to either a hike or no hike.  

Like to hear any further opinions.

It may even be a lose-lose or win-win scenario, people just want the news either way.


----------



## sinner

shouldaindex said:


> I'm unsure how the U.S Market reacts to either a hike or no hike.
> 
> Like to hear any further opinions.
> 
> It may even be a lose-lose or win-win scenario, people just want the news either way.




US dollar, US credit, US stocks just spent the last 6-9 months "pricing in"/anticipating a rate hike! 

I think there would need to be a surprise decision to move the markets significantly, either a hike or a cut  ...25bps either way ain't gonna move much at this point.

I also assume the market will probably punish any perceived inaction, so a "no hike" move will not be good for sentiment. Better to do anything than nothing, I am sure the market will be thinking.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> US dollar, US credit, US stocks just spent the last 6-9 months "pricing in"/anticipating a rate hike!
> 
> I think there would need to be a surprise decision to move the markets significantly, either a hike or a cut  ...25bps either way ain't gonna move much at this point.
> 
> I also assume the market will probably punish any perceived inaction, so a "no hike" move will not be good for sentiment. Better to do anything than nothing, I am sure the market will be thinking.




It's a tough one. In traditional market theory... it's priced in. But the market action in the last 3 weeks tell a different tale. 

It feels to me that the market overall is getting dumber in the sense that it really is very short term focused. Institutions are buying and selling to maximise return for the next month, based on history of the last 12 months and forecast/extrapolation for the next 4 weeks (all numbers simplified, but that's the gist of it).

So everyone is looking at what the other person is doing and thinking that the other person has it all priced in... and it turns out nobody has it priced in.

So I am keeping my eyes wide open on this one.


----------



## shouldaindex

10 of last 12 initial Fed hikes have had negative returns in the following 3 months (mostly single digits).


----------



## sinner

shouldaindex said:


> 10 of last 12 initial Fed hikes have had negative returns in the following 3 months (mostly single digits).




Be careful which conclusions you draw from that though. What are the returns following Fed cuts? I remember they cut non stop during 2008 and the market followed the cuts down every step of the way.

The short term relationship between interest rates and stocks is not as strong as most people think.

It is just me or is the intraday Dow futures chart looking pretty bullish? 




Further buying above ~16200 would be supportive.


----------



## shouldaindex

FTSE -2% 
Dow -1%

XJO Futures only down 15 points.

Data from U.S just out.  I think the market wants it's 20% decline done and will use NFP and Fed to accomplish it, regardless of the actual information, hence a possible win-win or lose-lose no matter what they decide.


----------



## kid hustlr

SPi Futures.

Interesting they didn't try to jam it through the support over Payrolls - Wonder if this is just a Friday night hangover after a long week or perhaps there's a hint of bullishness in that?

Regardless Monday will prove interesting given the levels. We could get the old gap open lower and go again here given the 'thin air' below. Alternatively if there's bullishness a foot it wouldn't surprise me if 5300 was re-visited quite quickly.

For me personally, looking at the charts I don't think the banks have bottomed and the immediate risk still appears to be the downside.




EDIT:

AUD hammered overnight, overseas fundies hit the sell button monday morning?


----------



## kid hustlr

It really is shaping up to be an interesting week.


----------



## qldfrog

unless mistaken, I believe there is a public holiday in the US on monday? and China will reopen next week too which may influence the US too
so the effect on the local ASX may not be nice to see on Monday at least .
I expect solid hammering for our local market


----------



## kid hustlr

qldfrog said:


> unless mistaken, I believe there is a public holiday in the US on monday? and China will reopen next week too which may influence the US too
> so the effect on the local ASX may not be nice to see on Monday at least .
> I expect solid hammering for our local market




I keep making cases to be bearish which makes me think I should be leaning the other way. Trading plan: If we gap lower Monday morning look for more carnage if not stand aside.


----------



## CanOz

Chinese regulators have raised the margin requirements for shanghai futures to a level beyond that of the private trader. My good friend and exceptionally talented outright directional futures trader Xiao Jun is out of work. Sidelined by ridiculous margin levels.....

There goes the liquidity  way to go knuckleheads!

CanOz


----------



## gartley

kid hustlr said:


> SPi Futures.
> 
> Interesting they didn't try to jam it through the support over Payrolls - Wonder if this is just a Friday night hangover after a long week or perhaps there's a hint of bullishness in that?
> 
> Regardless Monday will prove interesting given the levels. We could get the old gap open lower and go again here given the 'thin air' below. Alternatively if there's bullishness a foot it wouldn't surprise me if 5300 was re-visited quite quickly.
> 
> For me personally, looking at the charts I don't think the banks have bottomed and the immediate risk still appears to be the downside.
> 
> View attachment 64185
> 
> 
> EDIT:
> 
> AUD hammered overnight, overseas fundies hit the sell button monday morning?




 I reckon so, probably a re test of lows and then rally back up into the range.


----------



## shouldaindex

*2011 XAO*




Wonder what will be similar / different from the August low this time.


----------



## CanOz

Well done Kinetick for having continuous Xina50 contract data! I'm thinking we might test 9800 or maybe even 10000 again!


----------



## Logique

Just tooling around with the long term US S&P500 (SPX). I was struck by the tech similarities to two previous corrections.  Not much joy in this for the Bulls I'm afraid.

If it continues down - support at ~1800 and below this ~1550, look to be the areas to watch.


----------



## kid hustlr

What a difference a day makes


----------



## sinner

kid hustlr said:


> What a difference a day makes




One saying that I remember from 2008 is that on the way down, the market trades heavily on technical levels.

Presenting, the 24h Dow cash and its 400 point drop perfectly off the 10 day highest close. Just a pretty chart, no opinion here.




I never used to pay much attention to the Dow, being partial to the SPY ETF. However recently I've grown affinity for it, being a very old and simply constructed index of 30 very large multinationals. Good example that you don't need to hold 500 stocks for diversification!


----------



## Modest

What just happened to all the liquidity on the ES


----------



## PinguPingu

As our good friend would say: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_djk1RQ2Ew


----------



## sinner

This flow chart from Eric Hussander @ NANEX provides a useful guide for retail traders outside the US who aspire to succeed:



https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/642065792029343750/photo/1


----------



## CanOz

I guess the HFT dudes have bigger pockets with which to lobby...money talks


----------



## shouldaindex

One possibility I'm thinking about is a final surge up (About 6-10%) for the U.S Market on the back of a favourable Fed decision, before commencing the major leg of a bear.

Comparison is from the ASX in February upon the RBA's last favourable decision.


----------



## Logique

I was surprised at the strength of the overnight rise on the SPX, up 25 to 1978 (+1.28%), especially with the FOMC yet to announce on interest rates.


----------



## db94

shouldaindex said:


> One possibility I'm thinking about is a final surge up (About 6-10%) for the U.S Market on the back of a favourable Fed decision, before commencing the major leg of a bear.
> 
> Comparison is from the ASX in February upon the RBA's last favourable decision.




I think the fed will have to raise rates to show that things are back on the mend and improving; or if not they'll have to be very clear as to why not to avoid market disruption.  If they do raise rates, which I suspect as unemployment has also decreased a lot, the markets will rise (IMO the markets have factored in a rise in rates; buy the rumor, sell the news) and continue to do so with no bear leg. Just my opinion of course :


----------



## cynic

Crickey!!!

My mate Seng's hanging my shorts out to dry!!


----------



## skyQuake

XU1 and IFB1 moved 6% in a straight line
#justchinathings


----------



## cynic

skyQuake said:


> XU1 and IFB1 moved 6% in a straight line
> #justchinathings




Is that what people mean when they describe things being like "a bull in a China shop"?


----------



## skc

So who's up for a late night / early morning?

I hope you've all got your popcorn / coffee / redbull / vodka / marshmallows / sleeping bag etc ready.

Even if you are not trading... it'd be a historical event just to witness.

My prediction: 12.5bps raise followed by very dovish commentary. Market sells off initially on the back of rate rise for may be 8-12 minutes, then rally hard into the close.

If rates are not raised... expect the opposite.


----------



## Modest

That will be two historical market events I get to witness in the span of a month. Damn straight I will be there with a couple of Carlton middies.


----------



## cynic

skc said:


> So who's up for a late night / early morning?
> 
> I hope you've all got your popcorn / coffee / redbull / vodka / marshmallows / sleeping bag etc ready.
> 
> Even if you are not trading... it'd be a historical event just to witness.
> 
> My prediction: 12.5bps raise followed by very dovish commentary. Market sells off initially on the back of rate rise for may be 8-12 minutes, then rally hard into the close.
> 
> If rates are not raised... expect the opposite.




I'll be genuinely surprised if they don't raise by a smidgin. 

Is 12.5 bps the least increment available ?


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> So who's up for a late night / early morning?
> 
> I hope you've all got your popcorn / coffee / redbull / vodka / marshmallows / sleeping bag etc ready.
> 
> Even if you are not trading... it'd be a historical event just to witness.
> 
> My prediction: 12.5bps raise followed by very dovish commentary. Market sells off initially on the back of rate rise for may be 8-12 minutes, then rally hard into the close.
> 
> If rates are not raised... expect the opposite.




There's no way i'm staying up, or getting up for that crap. Easier to just stay flat until this non-sense is over. I'm flat intra-day and have been since Monday afternoon, flat my swing trade account and will be until next week.

Next up, the fiscal cliff IIIVIXIIIIVIII


----------



## shouldaindex

I'm more a fatalist, so think we're just playing out time before certain levels are hit on the downside.

What it does in the meantime I have no idea.


----------



## CanOz

Mods, please edit my double quote, a symptom of living behind the VPN....


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> There's no way i'm staying up, or getting up for that crap. *Easier* to just stay flat until this non-sense is over. I'm flat intra-day and have been since Monday afternoon, flat my swing trade account and will be until next week.
> 
> Next up, the fiscal cliff IIIVIXIIIIVIII




Easier but much less exciting


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> I'll be genuinely surprised if they don't raise by a smidgin.
> 
> Is 12.5 bps the least increment available ?




Well I was right - I am genuinely surprised that they didn't lift!


----------



## qldfrog

not surprised actually, they can not unless they willingly want to crash the market, but what I am surprised by, is the absence of at least a minimal jump up in the US, at least pretending to be happy about it....
Gold went up, and the stock market down;
we may go straight down whereas i was expecting a rebound before the fall
interesting to see oz today, especially once the asia market opens;
if you have to sell, sell early today is my 2c view


----------



## notting

I thought they would hike but didn't think they should.
Definitly a sensible decision.
People need to stop looking backwards and assuming there is anything normal about lending rates having to be higher than 2.5% or something. 
Zero is ideal, with no inflation nothing is wrong with that!


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> Zero is ideal, with no inflation nothing is wrong with that!




Fed inflation expectations for PCE in 2016/17 are in the high end of 1-handle.  On a real interest rate basis, the current settings are extremely accommodative.  A counter-argument is that there is deleveraging going on from overly indebted positions in which case these settings are ideal to create a soft landing.  This argument, however, is not being made by the Fed as yet.


----------



## notting

The FED is making a lot of sense now.

Have a look at this rant which was many months *before* the GFC when the FED wasn't making so much sense to those on the front line.

Pretty incredible considering what happened next


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Rate hike is not happening man.
> 
> I remember I was in Hong Kong about 6 months ago for work, was watching Bloomberg with a colleague and all the talking heads were giving off very convincing noises about rate hikes and so on.
> 
> At the time the market implied probability of rate hike in September was like 70-80%.
> 
> I was trying to explain to him how they can't hike rates, because it would entail a reduction in their balance sheet (or significant real GDP growth) and I just couldn't see balance sheet reduction (or GDP growth) happening.
> 
> Fast forward to today, market implied probability of rate hike in Sept is <20%, basically the market is now pricing for March 2016 rate hike. Most everyone betting on the curve to steepen also got creamed as it continued to flatten.
> 
> Ask yourself, do you think the Fed balance sheet will contract or expand by March 2016? GDP to contract or expand? Because however you answer that is also the answer to the probability of rate hike.
> 
> As for QE, well, so long as the US Federal budget has a deficit larger than the trade deficit, I think we can expect more QEs and POMOs from the Fed. The less Treasury flow the rest of the world buys, the more flow the US corporate sector and Federal Reserve itself must buy.




market still looks like it's pricing a March 16 hike (using CME FedWatch). However the market has been consistently wrong on this for a year now. No real growth, no hike (since the balance sheet ain't shrinking).


----------



## DeepState

sinner said:


> market still looks like it's pricing a March 16 hike (using CME FedWatch). However the market has been consistently wrong on this for a year now. No real growth, no hike (since the balance sheet ain't shrinking).




FWIW:

T-Bills are pricing a Dec 2015 Hike of 0.25%.  Expectations have certainly been moved out for years though.  This was just the latest instalment.

Puzzled abt no real growth comment.


----------



## notting

Some times the market offers you gifts!
There all over the joint at the moment.


----------



## sinner

DeepState said:


> FWIW:
> 
> T-Bills are pricing a Dec 2015 Hike of 0.25%.  Expectations have certainly been moved out for years though.  This was just the latest instalment.




I'm just going off FedWatch and using a 60% threshold. I think they use FFR futs to calculate.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/fed-funds-flash.html

Dec prob: 41%
Jan prob: 50%
Mar prob: 64%



> Puzzled abt no real growth comment.




There is a tightly coupled relationship between the short term rate and the ratio of monetary base per dollar of nominal GDP which implies that increases in the rate must be met by either a commensurate rising in nominal GDP or decline in the monetary base. Above when I said "real growth" I was referring to nominal GDP growth at a rate greater than the increase in monetary base. 

In this case I am merely commenting that I feel it's unlikely for near term future nominal GDP growth to exceed near term future increases in the monetary base. So assuming that the relationship between rates and the ratio continues, I doubt the Fed could hike rates (and if so only by the smallest of fractions).


----------



## PennD

End of the bull market?
http://northmantrader.com/2015/09/20/game-over/


----------



## qldfrog

Thanks for thearticle, I believe we start seeing some acknowledgement of these long term trends which are massive wealth destroyers and in some case end up as society destroyers
no middle class anymore, deflation yet higher cost of living , and loss of jobs to outsourcing/automation now reaching white collars..not much left....


----------



## CanOz

qldfrog said:


> Thanks for thearticle, I believe we start seeing some acknowledgement of these long term trends which are massive wealth destroyers and in some case end up as society destroyers
> no middle class anymore, deflation yet higher cost of living , and loss of jobs to outsourcing/automation now reaching white collars..not much left....




I think you should change your Avatar QLDFROG.....


----------



## Logique

PennD said:


> End of the bull market?
> http://northmantrader.com/2015/09/20/game-over/



Good contribution PennD.  An informative article, and as the author says, there isn't much room left for easing policy!



> Game Over
> by NORTHMANTRADER, SEPTEMBER 20, 2015
> http://northmantrader.com/2015/09/20/game-over/
> 
> ..The reality is all these bubbles and subsequent economic disasters have been managed by one primary tool: Long term reduction in interest rates..


----------



## Wysiwyg

The DOW's (4 hr chart) ascending triangle against the backdrop of the cascade sell off in August looks scary.


----------



## shouldaindex

Fantastic article by Northman, or should I say could be.

I noticed in one of his graphs, the -26% from peak coincides with the previous S&P peak in 2007.

It caught my eye because I had marked on the Dow Jones -26% from peak hitting the 2012 peak, which was the last one before a final surge that began a 30 month rally.

I don't see how major markets can be spared a bear market (-20%), so setting potential levels is going to be an interesting exercise in the coming months.

If trend lines continue, -30% fits the timeframe by end of year.


----------



## sinner

Rather large miss on the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index number that just came out now. Forecast was 4, previous print was 0 and the number for today was -5, i.e. a -9 delta on forecast.

Market looked like it was a little bid in the 30 min leadup to the news and so far holding steady.

I am guessing the new post FOMC logic is (not that I necessarily agree):

Bad news => Fed will have to print => Better frontrun the Fed => Buy risk


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Market looked like it was a little bid in the 30 min leadup to the news and so far holding steady.




lol, well that evaporated pretty quickly.


----------



## Logique

An ordinary night on European markets.

If the US and Asia Pacific are dithering around, wondering which way it will break, Europe might have made it's own decision, based on last night's action.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> sinner macro update




sinner macro update (click the little green arrow from above quote to see the previous charts). Executive summary for the bored: still not looking great, basically a month of consolidation on all inputs.

VIX. Simply does not want to return to the good old days. This is not a great sign, IMHO. This kind of higher volatility can lead to a medium term (6-12months) structural uptrend in vols, the sort of thing we saw leading the GFC. I like the VIX as a global proxy for vols, compared to other measures I have tested like bond market IV or ASX IV.



Breadth. Definitely no signs of "breadth divergence" or similar signals of bullish marginal risk preference. Other breadth measures actually look worse and are signalling trouble ahead. During strong trends, "oversold/overbought" indications (even in measures as simple as RSI14) normally indicate a consolidation rather than reversal, so further lows would be a good indication that this is the beginning of a longer trend.



TED making new 3y highs now. As per the VIX comment, high spreads here can lead to structural uptrend in the spread. 0.5 is really the historical line in the sand marking the difference between "natural business cycle low point" and "holy crap oh no" moments. So we still have a little breathing room here, but making highs is never good in the short term.



Credit. Dead cat bounce? Building a base? Too early too tell I think. But what we can definitely see is no demand on the part of the marginal investor.



Industrial commodities, looks like a dead cat to me.


----------



## sinner

Brent. One thing to note is that if you compare this to the industrial commodities chart above, oil is showing considerably more strength than the complex as a whole. My guess is that this is because malinvestment was so much higher in the industrial metals than energy, where demand has not really changed *that much* compared to say 3y ago. I guess the combo of Iranian sanction lifting plus the fight between the Saudis and US shale is the primary driver of this decline. The worlds biggest game of chicken, right there but my guess is the Saudis will win and the US oil miracle will fade significantly (allowing the Saudis to cut back on their own production to support future prices). Give it another year or so I guess.



BDI. Still looking kind of good from a very low base. I continue to watch with interest.



Sentiment (AAII investor 6 month outlook http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey). Bulls are slightly more bullish, but the real big move here is that the bears have migrated significantly out of the bear camp and into neutral. In case you didn't check, the previous reading I posted was 38% for the bears, that's a pretty big move away from bearish. If this is a downtrend, we are obviously nowhere near anything resembling capitulation lows.


----------



## CanOz

Sinner, thanks for your analysis!

Regarding the Dax, i reckon we're getting the makings of a strong counter trend rally soon, perhaps we need to test the low at 9317 first, ideally that would give us three drives to a low as on the hourly...

So just a heads up that in my view we could have a nice shirt covering rally coming. I'm looking at levels around 9580, 9490 and 9400...9380 FWIW


----------



## CanOz

Anybody get onto that nice rally on the Dax yesty?


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Anybody get onto that nice rally on the Dax yesty?




Managed to take a few EUROS out of it. Was my best night to date for this quarter (DEC15) and a nice ending to another turbulent week.


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Managed to take a few EUROS out of it. Was my best night to date for this quarter (DEC15) and a nice ending to another turbulent week.




Good to hear cynic!


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Anybody get onto that nice rally on the Dax yesty?




Does it count if one is always a little bit long? : I've been running about 30% net long (with about 30% of that in Germany) for over a year now


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Does it count if one is always a little bit long? : I've been running about 30% net long (with about 30% of that in Germany) for over a year now




Well the Dax is an index, so if you're long it or a constituent then I guess you caught the rally!


----------



## CanOz

Well there's the Aug low in pre cash on the Dax....can we retest in cash?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Well there's the Aug low in pre cash on the Dax....can we retest in cash?


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> Well there's the Aug low in pre cash on the Dax....can we retest in cash?



I made a mistake and tried to trade the down trend.  Continuing to short sell the DAX against this persistent cover rally which I hope the longs are making a motza.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Wysiwyg said:


> I made a mistake and tried to trade the down trend.  Continuing to short sell the DAX against this persistent cover rally which I hope the longs are making a motza.




Looks like you were standing in front of Mr Global Macro.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Yeah the DAX bounced over 200 points. Massive effort Mr. Macro.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trembling Hand said:


> Looks like you were standing in front of Mr Global Macro.



Come the EOFY I don't mind 'cause any losses are a deduction from gross income so the Puppet Master and his puppets can rip up or down as much as they want.


----------



## sinner

Wysiwyg said:


> Come the EOFY I don't mind 'cause any losses are a deduction from gross income so the Puppet Master and his puppets can rip up or down as much as they want.




There's no puppet master, you are just gambling!


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> Does it count if one is always a little bit long? : I've been running about 30% net long (with about 30% of that in Germany) for over a year now



Don't gamble on market direction!  Oh but you're net positive of course 'cause you're a good f.i.g.j.a.m.


----------



## sinner

Wysiwyg said:


> Don't gamble on market direction!  Oh but you're net positive of course 'cause you're a good f.i.g.j.a.m.




I'm net positive mostly just because concentration of my entire net worth into cash and gold makes me uncomfortable, it's not a claim that I'm "a good f.i.g.j.a.m" (which doesn't even make sense if you expand the acronym )

Blind Freddy could see that maintaining any equity net long position over the last year has been a losing proposition, so not really sure how that makes me out to look good.


----------



## CanOz

Today was a gift. I traded like a dog today, I mean seriously a dog could have done better. I'm quite pleased though because the market taught me a valuable lesson today.....and it didn't cost me a fortune because even though I traded like crap, I still managed my risk....

Had another dozen disconnections today from both data suppliers....also got stuck in an IG trade, or so I thought. I hedged it off only to find out I wasn't still in the trade after all, platform error....what a day


----------



## shouldaindex

Through everything so far, the S&P500 is only down -10% from peak after gaining +200%.

I'm not sure if that indicates the upside or downside.


----------



## CanOz

I'm going to go out on a limb here and call this correction over, based on the SPI on the Eurex equity products. The only caveat i have is the gap created from yesterdays session open.....Otherwise, very bullish above yesterdays highs and not bearish unless we close the gap and continue lower....

anyone else with me?


----------



## CanOz

Gotta love CFD providers....


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> anyone else with me?




Oink


----------



## barney

notting said:


> Oink





LOL ....... 

I'm actually trading the best I have in months this week ....... Mainly because I've been away for a few days and stopped trading altogether ..... Sometimes the recipe for success is simple


----------



## Modest

I am glad I don't trade NFP


----------



## skyQuake

Modest said:


> I am glad I don't trade NFP




Why not? Already popped some E 

Here's a fun exercise: what happens if you trade every NFP 'surprise' move on the ES (x % above/below consensus) with first entry at the end of a 5min bar, and pyramid every 5min bar after that ? Out on a retrace that breaches the prev bars range


----------



## fiftyeight

skyQuake said:


> Why not? Already popped some E




Had 2, now have mad shutter vision and can not see the screen. Best I have ever traded


----------



## skyQuake

fiftyeight said:


> Had 2, now have mad shutter vision and can not see the screen. Best I have ever traded



Oh dear, hope those green numbers dont turn out to be red the next day


----------



## cynic

Modest said:


> I am glad I don't trade NFP




I'm really glad that I do! It's often my best day for the month.


----------



## Modest

cynic said:


> I'm really glad that I do! It's often my best day for the month.




I tip my hat to you sir but it just feels like it's pot luck unless you've got a 'mate' working at the ABS or something if you get my drift


----------



## sinner

skyQuake said:


> Why not? Already popped some E
> 
> Here's a fun exercise: what happens if you trade every NFP 'surprise' move on the ES (x % above/below consensus) with first entry at the end of a 5min bar, and pyramid every 5min bar after that ? Out on a retrace that breaches the prev bars range




Try the 2 bar high aka 10 min bar for entries and exits or better yet a Chandelier style exit and entry. My experience has been that on news dayscthat kind of trading really helps to have a simple algorithm handle the work for you as the breakout and exit points can often come and go quite fast. Using risk informed targets like 1:1 with limit orders to exit is also effective.


----------



## cynic

skyQuake said:


> Oh dear, hope those green numbers dont turn out to be red the next day




A regular occurrence for those possessed of a sufficient level of insanity to trade the Demonic DAX!


----------



## Modest

"Hanging by a thread" 

http://northmantrader.com/2015/10/04/hanging-by-a-thread/


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah bottom in.......




Any chance of knowing what your thinking was behind this?


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Any chance of knowing what your thinking was behind this?




Guestimate of breadth divergence on any further declines outside of the big one that is just around the corner. 

Has been for the last 8 years apparently.....


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Guestimate of breadth divergence on any further declines outside of the big one that is just around the corner.
> 
> Has been for the last 8 years apparently.....




So I had to find out what breadth divergence is, but still in the dark sorry.

So unless the August low was "the big one" it was a likely low based on the breadth divergence?


----------



## sinner

fiftyeight said:


> So I had to find out what breadth divergence is, but still in the dark sorry.
> 
> So unless the August low was "the big one" it was a likely low based on the breadth divergence?




During bull markets, lows in most technical measures (especially weekly/monthly frame) represent an oversold status which is close to the bottom - a wise place to buy. Breadth is a good one as it often leads index price movements.

However if bear momentum picks up then the lows merely represent the start of a protracted downtrend. 

There have been multiple occurrences post GFC of the technical oversold state which many (including myself on one or two occasions!) claimed as the potential beginning of a new bear only to see new highs attained shortly thereafter.

TH is poking fun at those people


----------



## sinner

Of course, it depends on your perspective I guess. A new high steamroller driven by huge demand for claims against real assets is not really that optimistic.





Not that I'm claiming that is the case for the larger global indexes, which I think have mostly been influenced by FASB mark-to-unicorn rule relaxation in 2009 than anything else.


----------



## fiftyeight

sinner said:


> mark-to-unicorn rule relaxation in 2009




And back to google we go, such a newb

Cheers for the reply sinner, your detailed replies are greatly appreciated


----------



## sinner

fiftyeight said:


> And back to google we go, such a newb
> 
> Cheers for the reply sinner, your detailed replies are greatly appreciated




Basically, in 2009 the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (and equivalent organisations in other developed countries) changed a simple but important accounting rule which essentially used to be: your assets are valued conservatively, either the price you paid or the current price (mark to market). According to that previous rule, most major financial institutions, globally, would be considered insolvent based on GFC "asset" (in this cases, mostly liabilities in the form of securitised debt) prices.

The new rule (known jokingly as mark to unicorn) allowed financial firms to declare the value of their assets to be what they (not the market) believed the assets to be worth. So let's say a Mortgage Backed Security or Municipal Bond is trading at 7c on the dollar, but you think that (under a whole host of assumptions) that it should be worth two dollars on the dollar. So you note it down in your balance sheet as $1.50 and call it a weighted measurement of value.

Now having said that, obviously the point of what caused the 2009 bottom is under heavy contention and in all likelihood we will never know for certain. Some will say TARP and QE and the road to ZIRP drove liquidity which drove prices, others will say that Obama fixed the US economy and so on. And to top it off, obviously those who claimed there were systemic issues got handwaved or laughed away as markets bottomed and proceeded to rip higher.

But I do believe that the change of this rule was really what allowed postponing of what is essentially inevitable (mathematically speaking) and shifted investor risk preferences back into bullish mode (technical oversold = buy signal) because the cornerstone of credit economies (read: our global economy) is the banks and financial system that they operate.



(h/t hussmanfunds.com)


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> TH is poking fun at those people



 Who? me? Nooooo!  



fiftyeight said:


> So I had to find out what breadth divergence is, but still in the dark sorry.




Here is what I was anticipating but in reverse. (that is bullish rather than bearish setup)

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad....009/10/interesting-rollover-on-the-cards.html

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2009/11/the-back-end-of-a-bull.html

(I'm not saying its the same situation that will lead to a 50% index move. Rather just the fact that breadth as Sinner said turn before the Indexes do)


----------



## sinner

> (I'm not saying its the same situation that will lead to a 50% index move. Rather just the fact that breadth as Sinner said turn before the Indexes do)




Those are some good old blog posts that I remember reading and wish I had paid more attention to back then, would have saved me a motza on puts in proceeding years (although admittedly some did work out OK thanks to Deepwater crushing BP and GBPUSD).

Re "broad advances sign of a healthy market" interesting this phrase triggered my memory, as AFAIK the McClellan Summation Index (basically the 19/39 EMA of cumulative Advance Decline) uses a similar concept - moves above 500 indicate a liquidity wave (i.e. broad advances indicating more bull to come) and moves below -500 indicate the inverse.

Make of the following charts what you will


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Rather just the fact that breadth as Sinner said turn before the Indexes do






sinner said:


> Breadth is a good one as it often leads index price movements.




Finally the holy grail, a leading indicator 

Cheers guys a fair bit there for me to look at tonight and digest.


----------



## sinner

fiftyeight said:


> Finally the holy grail, a leading indicator
> 
> Cheers guys a fair bit there for me to look at tonight and digest.




It won't lead in such a way that it allows you to print money, the correlation with actual index movements is higher than that, everyone with market experience knows about breadth so you aren't going to generate post-tax alpha just by following it.

But I do find that it (along with other measures) provides a decent (and rational!) proxy for investor risk sentiment. As do yield spreads on different grades of corporate and quasi-Government debt, diversification measures (high or low correlation between sectors and indices), volume measures (up volume as a ratio to down volume) and so on.

It can also act as a decent input signal for short term EOD trading, i.e. rather than betting on mean reversion of the index price you can bet on mean reversion once a majority of stocks are making 5 day lows, or similar signals (reverse for momentum).

As an example: http://ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblo...g-indicator-signaling-breadth-bounce-is-near/


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Guestimate of breadth divergence on any further declines outside of the big one that is just around the corner.
> 
> Has been for the last 8 years apparently.....




Do you have internals for Europe as well TH?


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Do you have internals for Europe as well TH?




Can get some for free on indexindicators.com (DAX, CAC and a few others IIRC).




If you have the data, not too difficult to build yourself in R. Realistically, for 30 stocks in the DAX or whatever, can even do it manually.


----------



## fiftyeight

I was attempting humour, newb looking for the holy grail. 

Cheers again Sinner. I am going to log off before you give me even more to read


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Can get some for free on indexindicators.com (DAX, CAC and a few others IIRC).
> 
> View attachment 64603
> 
> 
> If you have the data, not too difficult to build yourself in R. Realistically, for 30 stocks in the DAX or whatever, can even do it manually.




Thanks Sinner, Particularly interested in an NYSE style tick index for the Xetra....Having a look around, they must have one, but it might be called something different....

edit: Apparently the tick index for the Dax Xetra is the TICK-IBIS


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Thanks Sinner, Particularly interested in an NYSE style tick index for the Xetra....Having a look around, they must have one, but it might be called something different....




Interactive Brokers has it as a product, the code is TICK-IBIS.

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=2222&ns=T&exch=ibis&showcategories=


----------



## CanOz

I now have my Tick indicator....thanks for making me look for this Sinner....


----------



## sinner

ECB announces they will be conducting the anticipated traditional Christmas "dumping [of cash] on your front lawn" early this year

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2015/html/mg151008.en.html



> With regard to the pace of purchases under the APP, the ECB had undertaken – as would be published on Monday, 7 September 2015 – purchases of â‚¬51.6 billion in August. Given the modest frontloading of purchases in previous months, the Eurosystem had now bought assets amounting to, on average, around â‚¬60 billion per month over the first six months of the APP. Purchases under the third covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3) had amounted to â‚¬7.5 billion in August, with the book value of CBPP3 holdings having stood at around â‚¬111.5 billion at the end of that month, and with primary market purchases amounting to a share of 17.9%. With regard to purchases of asset-backed securities (ABS), the Eurosystem had bought â‚¬1.3 billion of such securities in August, bringing the book value of holdings under the ABS purchase programme to â‚¬11.1 billion at the end of that month, with 27.2% purchased in the primary market.
> 
> From September to November 2015, purchases under the APP would again be somewhat frontloaded to prepare for the expected decline in market liquidity in December.



(h/t ZH)


----------



## shouldaindex

U.S Markets now only 6% from previous peak.  

Thoughts about the direction for the next 3-6 months?


----------



## Trembling Hand

shouldaindex said:


> U.S Markets now only 6% from previous peak.
> 
> Thoughts about the direction for the next 3-6 months?




"Well, you know this is a bull market!" - Jesse Livermore


----------



## CanOz

shouldaindex said:


> U.S Markets now only 6% from previous peak.
> 
> Thoughts about the direction for the next 3-6 months?






CanOz said:


> I'm going to go out on a limb here and call this correction over....




I'm not all skittles n beer, we've got hurdles yet before a larger correction is ruled out....


----------



## CanOz

This looks interesting....

TH, any idea on this?

 Deutsche BÃ¶rse launches Intraday Volatility Forecast for Futures of DAX, EURO STOXX 50 and Euro-Bund


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> This looks interesting....
> 
> TH, any idea on this?
> 
> Deutsche BÃ¶rse launches Intraday Volatility Forecast for Futures of DAX, EURO STOXX 50 and Euro-Bund




Oh great another chart! 

I would be sceptical. These new products have a way of being duds. I'm also pretty sceptical of being told by a quant that this addition will help my disc trading :


----------



## shouldaindex

Just doing some research on the S&P500 historical.

Over a rolling 25 year holding period (encapsulating 1926-2015), 95% of the time you returned 7 x your original investment or more.


----------



## CanOz

Range day today or yet a third NR day?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Range day today or yet a third NR day?




Ha! Got your answer yet..


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! Got your answer yet..




Indeed, thankfully my trusty CFD platform worked a treat today too, as both CQG and IB had connectivity issues. CQG wouldn't stay connected and IB would give me depth, but no prints....

I managed to open at 10090 and cover at 10023.


----------



## sinner

SPY 100 day correlation between single day return and previous single day return...record breaking would be the correct way to describe it.





mmm...64 slices of American momentum...


----------



## CanOz

I know i bled like a stuck pig after yesty's swing fest...:frown:


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> SPY 100 day correlation between single day return and previous single day return...record breaking would be the correct way to describe it.
> 
> View attachment 64662




Interesting. Could you post a shorter time frame of that chart? (18 months or so)

EDIT: Actually never mind. Just had a better look at it.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting. Could you post a shorter time frame of that chart? (18 months or so)
> 
> EDIT: Actually never mind. Just had a better look at it.




For those playing at home




and a freebie, FXE


----------



## sinner

A longer study, using S&P500 index data


----------



## DeepState

sinner said:


> A longer study, using S&P500 index data
> 
> View attachment 64671




Please condition by aggregate return over the rolling window.  High correlation probably occurs when there are particularly weak returns.  XY plot with Y = 100 day correlation and X = 100 day return might be revealing.  Would also correlate with Volatility.  I'm quite sure that Howard Brandy (and probably yourself) can explain why this occurs in tractable terms (non-stationary mean during estimation window, with lower underlying mean during stressed times).


----------



## sinner

DeepState said:


> Please condition by aggregate return over the rolling window.  High correlation probably occurs when there are particularly weak returns.




Will check to confirm but don't think so. High correlation in daily returns happens on momentum runs (i.e. if yesterday was up today is up) and low correlation during mean reversion microstructure aka chop.



> XY plot with Y = 100 day correlation and X = 100 day return might be revealing.  Would also correlate with Volatility.




Will check but don't think so. The future 100 day correlation mostly influenced by past 100 day correlation (high if low, low if high). You can see the most recent decline was quite momentumish, but GFC and tech crash was very mean reversionish. This borne out by equity curves for systems designed to capture short term fluctuations. Think you'll find high vol correlates with extremes in this measure, high or low.



> I'm quite sure that Howard Brandy (and probably yourself) can explain why this occurs in tractable terms (non-stationary mean during estimation window, with lower underlying mean during stressed times).




My 2c is that this is influenced by strategy demand or lack thereof. You can see the correlation has always been on the low side, even when high. The microstructure at least since 90s has been very mean reversion supportive. But as demand for strategies to profit off this goes up it forces profitability down (correlation reverses off lows). Exogenous shocks to the market (either up or down) will show up as high correlation while the market drives to new level over consecutive days at which point the demand for short term mean reversion slowly drives it back to lows.

I have a link I want to share but typing this from phone away from desk so this will have to do until I return to my notes

https://quantivity.wordpress.com/2011/07/03/mean-reversion-redux/

EDIT: all applies only to SP500, other markets like FX and commods all behave differently, please don't extrapolate to other markets if you're watching this discussion.


----------



## DeepState

Don't bother, Sinner.  On reflection, I think your thoughts are closer to the truth on this.  Might look into it a little more given I was off on my assertions.  Opportunity to learn something. Thanks.


----------



## sinner

Some messy scatters for DS 

100 day rolling returns against 100 day previous day return correlation



100 day historical volatility against 100 day previous day return correlation



These are for SPY not SP500 index data (i.e. only going back to the 90s).

EDIT:

here is the promised link

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1573164
*
Evaporating Liquidity
*


> The returns of short-term reversal strategies in equity markets can be interpreted as a proxy for the returns from liquidity provision. Analysis of reversal strategies shows that the expected return from liquidity provision is strongly time-varying and highly predictable with the VIX index. Expected returns and conditional Sharpe Ratios increase enormously along with the VIX during times of financial market turmoil, such as the financial crisis 2007-09. Even reversal strategies formed from industry portfolios (which do not yield high returns unconditionally) produce high rates of return and high Sharpe Ratios during times of high VIX. The results point to withdrawal of liquidity supply, and an associated increase in the expected returns from liquidity provision, as a main driver behind the evaporation of liquidity during times of financial market turmoil, consistent with theories of liquidity provision by financially constrained intermediaries.


----------



## DeepState

sinner said:


> Some messy scatters for DS
> 
> 100 day rolling returns against 100 day previous day return correlation
> View attachment 64673
> 
> 
> 100 day historical volatility against 100 day previous day return correlation
> View attachment 64674
> 
> 
> These are for SPY not SP500 index data (i.e. only going back to the 90s).
> 
> EDIT:
> 
> here is the promised link
> 
> http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1573164
> *
> Evaporating Liquidity
> *






Thanks.  Was looking at stuff over a 20 day horizon this arvo as a result of your posts.

Found as follows:

Returns when auto-correl>0.3 (or thereabouts) are meaningfully lower than when they are <-0.3
 - Weaker markets happen with sequences of poor returns. 
 - Stronger markets tend to occur when prices move more randomly or exhibit day to day over-reaction.
 - I was expecting this outcome.

Volatility is clearly inversely related to returns.  Market falls tend to be bigger than market rises. I was expecting this outcome.

Yet, Volatility and Auto-Correlation are negatively related.  I was not expecting this outcome.  In a fit of rushed thinking, I was, instead, thinking about how cross-sectional vol and correlation commove and confusing this with the example you provided which is about auto-correlation and vol.  

It would seem that low auto-correlation, then, would be related to high correlation within the market constituents.  When macro stuff is moving the entire market around, it is more prone to be over-reacting.  This is also what I understand, but this is the first time I have taken this route and seen it this way. 

---

Interesting hypothesis in the paper.  Turnover jumps a lot during VIX spikes.  So it is odd to claim that returns from reversion strategies are attributable to liquidity provision at first glance.  I suppose there is money to be made by taking the opposite side of markets whipping around if they mean revert.  If there is a lot of panic in whipping around, then the cooler hands will make money.  High volume would be the result of high demand for liquidity which is being supplied with a large premium.

Naturally, it is one thing to say we can make money in XYZ market state and predicting that we will remain in that state.  

Given volatility persistence, position sizes during these times of high volatility and low auto-correlation would generally be much lower than average, making harvesting dollar profit more difficult than might first appear on a straight conditional sort assuming fixed position sizes in all market regimes.

Provide liquidity when there is blood on the streets....and you know that the blood will stay flowing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

> The results point to withdrawal of liquidity supply, and an associated increase in the expected returns from liquidity provision, as a main driver behind the evaporation of liquidity during times of financial market turmoil, consistent with theories of liquidity provision by financially constrained intermediaries.




I think that is a dodgy conclusion. They are saying that because a broken market such as CDO's etc stopped trading there was a equal reduction in equities. You only have to pull up a chart to see that aint right. 

There are times when a unit of volume can produce a greater or lesser move/volatility. That is clear for anyone who participates in the market. To claim that a lack of liquidity increased volatility ignores the fact that a greater unit of volume found counter participants. It is not the lack of volume that increase volatility/VIX as they are always associated with increased participation on comparable time frames. 

(only read the first few pages)


----------



## skc

US market at a key juncture now.





Back in September with ES ~1900 level, I remember telling myself "Don't short now, it will most likely retest the level where it broke down". 

Well, 2040 was the that level... and we are right there. It means we are only 5% down from all time high.

The question is:

1. Do you short the market now?
2. Do you wait for a reversal back below 2000?
3. Do you wait for the Fed meeting on 27/28 Oct?

It feels like no one trust this rally (as indicated by everyone panicking on the first sign of it ending back in late Aug), yet everyone still want to be part of it. Sort of like you have to keep dancing as long as the music is playing.


----------



## Logique

Yes a very interesting juncture for the SPX.  The run up this month has been so rapid, you'd think that gap would need to be filled in technically i.e. ST rollover of some degree.

I'm still afraid of a Bear trap here.  I mean, what have the FOMC done but kick the can down the road on interest rates.


----------



## CanOz

SKC, the question is how to play the break, if it shall occur....

I have some ideas...

For 1, it's quite likely that when a break higher or lower occurs, it will be during the globex hours. Generally though it would be the Retest where you could look for enough information to take a position....

Love to post some volume profile charts to show where all the volume has been done at....unfortunately I'm sick in bed with severe food poisoning....maybe later today.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

The second thing to watch for here I reckon is a fundamental news event to trigger selling....or buying. It's always places in time like this where markets always seem to be positioned poorly for absorbing news....


----------



## CanOz

Well, I think we could see another drive higher, ideally into 2050. Shorts under 2000 though....definitely running out of steam here though.

Edit, sorry logique, wasn't my intention to exclude you when I replied...


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> 1. Do you short the market now?
> 2. Do you wait for a reversal back below 2000?
> 3. Do you wait for the Fed meeting on 27/28 Oct?




Tom McClellan who has been doing a pretty good job at calling turning points latest weekly note
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/mcclellan_oscillator_interpretation/



> Now we are in a downtrend, and the countertrend rallies have been able to take the Oscillator up to a level which would otherwise be an indication of strong new upward initiation.  But the lack of follow through reveals those high readings to be markers of blowoff tops instead of strong new initiation.  The latest Oscillator peak rose all the way up to +303, and we thus far are not seeing follow-through.
> 
> If the Oscillator continues falling and goes back down through the zero line without building any complexity up above zero, then that will be a “tell” that the recent bounce has been just a countertrend rally, and is not the start of a new uptrend.  That is the outcome which I expect to see, and so the Oscillator serves as a great tool for confirmation of expectations.






> It feels like no one trust this rally (as indicated by everyone panicking on the first sign of it ending back in late Aug), yet everyone still want to be part of it. Sort of like you have to keep dancing as long as the music is playing.




Well, there are not very good indications of positive investor risk sentiment across the board. Normally bull markets have strong uniformity across those indicators since, generally speaking, when investors are willing to take risk, it shows up everywhere. 

A new rally to all time highs without supportive increases in preference for risk would only broaden those concerns rather than alleviate them and I'd be adding significant hedges on such a move, perhaps even enough to produce a modest net short position. 

Shifts in trendfollowing and breadth measures towards a more positive indication would be my personal signal to adopt a 70-100% net long. Valuations remain too elevated in the markets I track for me to adopt a leveraged bullish stance.

FWIW my current exposures at the asset class level from last nights mark-to-market, which under the current volatility regime is getting rebalanced about once a month (next rebal coming up shortly but I don't anticipate any major shift):



EDIT: it says cash/bonds but it's mostly cash with a smallish amount of AU gov bond exposure (5-10y).


----------



## kid hustlr

what currency is the gold in


----------



## sinner

kid hustlr said:


> what currency is the gold in




Everything is marked to the AUD value using the latest NY closing price for the appropriate FX cross. In the case of gold it's the NY close for XAUAUD.

99% of the gold is physically held by me or held in AUD denominated allocated accounts.


----------



## sinner

Here's just one small study of investor risk sentiment, the S&P Global 100 priced in various currencies and trend:

* SP Global 100 priced in USD, currently below 52 week SMA
* SP Global 100 priced in JPY, currently below 52 week SMA
* SP Global 100 priced in EUR, currently below 52 week SMA
* SP Global 100 priced in CHF, currently below 52 week SMA
* SP Global 100 priced in GBP, currently below 52 week SMA
* SP Global 100 priced in AUD, currently above 52 week SMA
* SP Global 100 priced in CAD, currently above 52 week SMA


----------



## CanOz

The Dax and the eurostoxx are diverging again....


----------



## Valued

It's not just the US market at an interesting turning point. Other weaker markets are in similar technical positions but arn't experiencing high growth like the US. 

It's a tough one since on one view the world markets are doing better than the world economy suggests that they should. The US has pretty good growth but other countries are doing it tough. On the other hand, bull markets can just run and run even if the fundamentals don't necessarily support it and at some point also the fundamentals may catch up with the market if economic recovery catches up (I believe that's outside standard academic theory, it's just my belief on how markets work). If that happens then we won't see a bear market, we may just see the stock markets around the world stagnate for a bit, unless there is something wrong specifically with the country (such as Russia because of sanctions and low oil price). 

I guess that's the problem with trying to capture a big move right now. No one seems to know wtf is going on. For every economist that says the world is coming to an end, buy gold, there is another that says we are going to recover.


----------



## sinner

Valued said:


> I guess that's the problem with trying to capture a big move right now. No one seems to know wtf is going on.




Short term, for those putting actual money on the table, it's all a coinflip. Nothing new there.

Long term, I think it is obvious that passive returns for most asset classes at current prices will be lower in the future than the past. This might be a matter of contention for equities but it is not so for bonds, where the nominal return is essentially locked in at current low yields. You won't hear any experts or analysts calling for a doubling of the global equity market in the next 5 years (and if such an event took place it would be on the backs of something very inflationary rather than healthy growth driven). At least from my perspective, the exception here would be gold but I am aware of being in the minority on that.

The current business model driving prices higher is essentially that of decamping, with businesses returning capital to shareholders at staggering rates. Investment in the future, especially future growth, is muted or going backwards. Economists everywhere have been forced to revise growth targets down every year since the GFC as the mirage evaporated. So big moves higher from here will really only widen existing divergences, otherwise the capital markets and capitalism more broadly are simply broken.

This obviously sounds all very gloom and doom, but I am not bearish against humanity. I think plenty of opportunity will abound for traders and investors alike, especially given the prospect of lower equity prices and higher interest rates. But until then, it is what it is.


----------



## Trembling Hand

> So big moves higher from here will really only widen existing divergences, otherwise the capital markets and capitalism more broadly are simply broken.
> 
> This obviously sounds all very gloom and doom, but I am not bearish against humanity. I think plenty of opportunity will abound for traders and investors alike, especially given the prospect of lower equity prices and higher interest rates. But until then, it is what it is.




Trading is in a sweet spot from here to eternity  (that's measured in trader lives which are very short  ) heap of uncertainty and a heap of cash looking for a return. 

Humanity and investors needs a real disruptive boom. Not a funny money one. Couple of hopes/wishes along the lines of renewables boom, African boom based on corruption reduction and investment not aid, china shift to consumption and spacemen bringing new peaceful technology and cool flying cars.

(Last one the most probable)


----------



## sinner

Looks like some big EUR volatility today, not too many days over the last 5y with this kind of single day return (although obviously today isn't finished yet).

At least, I'm attributing EUR since JPY, AUD and GBP didn't weaken as badly against the USD (although JPY did move a fair chunk).


----------



## sinner

I look at a lot of charts, looking to understand the returns for concepts and so on. A lot of charts.

Often this means I will recognise the return profile for a particular strategy which turns out to be driven by another factor.

Tonight I found a rather interesting, new to me, relationship.

Below is the ratio chart for NYSE ETFs TIP and IEF. Their duration is pretty closely matched so the chart can be considered a crude proxy for 7y  market implied US inflation expectations.



Does this look familiar to you? As soon as I saw it, it looked pretty familiar to me. Here are a few comparison charts

TIP/IEF vs WTI cash (Brent cash looks identical)



TIP/IEF vs Goldman Sachs Commodity Index cash (heavily weighted to WTI)



TIP/IEF vs EURUSD



TIP/IEF vs AUDUSD


----------



## sinner

TIP/IEF vs Gold in USD (XAUUSD)




TIP/IEF vs JPYUSD



This last one is pretty interesting, you can see JPYUSD leading the ratio by about 2 months lead, from 2011-2014.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> US market at a key juncture now.
> 
> Back in September with ES ~1900 level, I remember telling myself "Don't short now, it will most likely retest the level where it broke down".
> 
> Well, 2040 was the that level... and we are right there. It means we are only 5% down from all time high.
> 
> The question is:
> 
> 1. Do you short the market now?
> 2. Do you wait for a reversal back below 2000?
> 3. Do you wait for the Fed meeting on 27/28 Oct?
> 
> It feels like no one trust this rally (as indicated by everyone panicking on the first sign of it ending back in late Aug), yet everyone still want to be part of it. Sort of like you have to keep dancing as long as the music is playing.




Haha... let's try this again.




We are now ~3% off all time high. What I left out in the question set was 4. Punch higher!

FWIW, I actually took option 1 and shorted at around 2038. I closed the position before Mario spoke to avoid the volatility and pocketed a small profit. Then for some reason I went to bed instead of going long...

With Google and Amazon reporting well after market, it should be another strong night. Then I guess it's likely consolidation until the Fed meeting...


----------



## Valued

skc, your trend lines are amazing lol. 

I am still watching this closely. I am waiting to see what happens tonight. I am interested in what the volume is going to be since it looks like volume was cooling off on the rise up yesterday. If it is even less impressive after tonight then congestion or a fall are the most probable. The problem with a large move down right now before any fundamental news is that earnings reports have been positive and the market has reacted like a charging bull. Google shares are up 10 - 12% based on 5 billion dollars of share buy backs and slightly more earnings. I am not sure that is worth over 20 billion dollars but apparently it is. 

Time will tell. We will know a little more tonight and a lot more by the end of the month.


----------



## PennD

Feeling toppy? 

http://safehaven.com/article/39338/...rket-well-2015-is-looking-a-lot-like-20072008


----------



## Logique

CanOz said:


> Well, I think we could see another drive higher, ideally into 2050. Shorts under 2000 though....definitely running out of steam here though.
> 
> Edit, sorry logique, wasn't my intention to exclude you when I replied...



Hey no sweat CanOz


----------



## Logique

PennD said:


> Feeling toppy?
> 
> http://safehaven.com/article/39338/...rket-well-2015-is-looking-a-lot-like-20072008



Uber bearish isn't it, but some nice charts!  We're in for a rough few months if their analog is correct.


----------



## CanOz

PennD said:


> Feeling toppy?
> 
> http://safehaven.com/article/39338/...rket-well-2015-is-looking-a-lot-like-20072008






Everyone tries to be the clever one that called the retrun of the bear. If they're wrong, you never hear of them again, if they're right they're a legend for a single call.

If anything we look more like October 2005

Danny Riley thinking the bears have finally turned bullish....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Everyone tries to be the clever one that called the retrun of the bear. If they're wrong, you never hear of them again, if they're right they're a legend for a single call.
> 
> If anything we look more like October 2005




They always play the same game. Add a heap of charts with lots of commentary to make it look smart, so much so you actually cannot see the price action and then try to shoehorn the current situation into a past one that they missed and still want to play out.


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> sinner macro update (click the little green arrow from above quote to see the previous charts).




sinner macro update (click the little green arrow from above quote to see the previous charts). 

First up is VIX. Positive signs here for the equity and short vol bulls, if you recall the last post my major concern was the elevated VIX becoming structural but it looks like vols have been crushed which provides the necessary foundation for either a "low volatility drift higher" like early/mid 2014 (good for equity bulls) or "low volatility consolidation" like early/mid 2015 (good for short equity vol bulls).

One does get the impression of "busting at the seams" from this chart (at least, my  ) and I would ask, given the state of the global economy are equity vols priced appropriately? Taking a look at the CBOE put/call ratios, equity put/call ratio is still elevated but total put/call ratio is coming off some.




Breadth. Big change in participation since the last post, with the % of SP500 components above their 200SMA almost doubling (prev 27.6 cur 47.4). If the improvement carries into next month I might be adopting some more longs,but for me this is still on the fence. Other breadth measures are certainly weaker.

Also, consider how much higher participation was in 2013, that giant divergence is still sitting there.



TED spread still on the highs, no narrowing here, still cautious about this becoming structural (elevated, but not above 0.5).



Credit. Actually widened since the last measure before coming back in a little. The broader message is that we are still much narrower than the GFC, but the propensity towards widening is concerning. Not much in the way of "demand for risk" on show here.



Industrial metals look like they are consolidating. Optimistically, we can say, "at least the freefall has been arrested for now", but on the other hand this doesn't really look like a base from which new demand is built (opinions appreciated there).


----------



## sinner

Brent. Actually a good sign here that $50 is some kind of support. Volatility is still relatively high compared to 3y ago. It doesn't look like the beginnings of a rally to me, but I get the impression that most oil market participants would just settle for some short term price stability and are very tired of the rollercoaster.



BDI. Shipping has come way off, which is not a great sign, looking back on the chart it does look like a number above 800 has been supportive of equity prices so will be watching this level closely to see how we move around it.



No major updates to sentiment as only small shift has occurred with some investors moving away from a bearish 6 month outlook into neutral. 

No major updates to valuations, although it will be interesting to see updated data as the US earnings season rolls through.

Bonus chart: total US capacity utilisation YoY % change, from FRED.


----------



## sinner

PennD said:


> Feeling toppy?
> 
> http://safehaven.com/article/39338/...rket-well-2015-is-looking-a-lot-like-20072008




How many "analog" chart analysis have been blown out of the water since 2009? I would say: all of them. 

How many more would it take before people start to accept that it's not a valid forecasting method purely on empirical outcomes? Even if it turns out that this particular analog forecasts the next crash perfectly, at best we can say a broken clock is right twice a day, considering how many similar analysis have turned out bunk.

Safehaven has a small handful of good contributors on their blogroll (those who are already widely read elsewhere), but otherwise it is a great place to visit if you want to lose some money (speaking from experience).


----------



## PennD

sinner said:


> How many "analog" chart analysis have been blown out of the water since 2009? I would say: all of them.
> 
> How many more would it take before people start to accept that it's not a valid forecasting method purely on empirical outcomes? Even if it turns out that this particular analog forecasts the next crash perfectly, at best we can say a broken clock is right twice a day, considering how many similar analysis have turned out bunk.
> 
> Safehaven has a small handful of good contributors on their blogroll (those who are already widely read elsewhere), but otherwise it is a great place to visit if you want to lose some money (speaking from experience).




All good points Sinner. Thanks for replying. 

First time i've seen safe haven, but not the first doomer post thats for sure. THey still get me from time to time


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone been looking at this one? 




"Well, you know this is a bull market!"


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone been looking at this one?
> 
> "Well, you know this is a bull market!"




I'm holding a bunch of the NQ component stocks, Apple, Ebay, Gilead, Garmin, Intel, NetApp, Seagate, Western Digital and a few other tech stocks.


----------



## sinner

Spotted this on VICE today, 

http://motherboard.vice.com/en_ca/r...he-war-in-syria-complex-systems-theorists-say

*Commodity Traders Helped Spark the War in Syria, Complex Systems Theorists Say*

The title is obviously a little sensationalist but the research covered (and link to abstract) is interesting enough. I'm asking around my academic friends for a copy of the full paper.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> *Commodity Traders Helped Spark the War in Syria, Complex Systems Theorists Say*




The sooner they pull the 1000 or so keyboard warriors out of their homes, line them up against the wall and put a bullet in their heads the better!! Damn day traders!!


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> The sooner they pull the 1000 or so keyboard warriors out of their homes, line them up against the wall and put a bullet in their heads the better!! Damn day traders!!




hehe, the abstract claims



> The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns.




So apparently not just daytraders up against the walls.

I got a copy of the paper but haven't had a chance to read it yet.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> I got a copy of the paper but haven't had a chance to read it yet.




OMG! Its spreading,

*Georgia Man Smashes Door at Waffle House After the Price of Sausage Biscuits Goes Up By 50 Cents*

Go long gold and guns.......


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone who trades with AMP futs ever get "NFA rebates"? Just noticed it today on my statement and no idea what it is?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone who trades with AMP futs ever get "NFA rebates"? Just noticed it today on my statement and no idea what it is?




typo.  Should say NFI.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone who trades with AMP futs ever get "NFA rebates"? Just noticed it today on my statement and no idea what it is?




Did you get overcharged or overpay for something to the National Futures Association?


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> Did you get overcharged or overpay for something to the National Futures Association?




No idea. That would seem to be what happened but no word from AMP. They probably saw my last months trading and felt sorry for me so decided to give me back some bro....


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> No idea. That would seem to be what happened but no word from AMP. They probably saw my last months trading and felt sorry for me so decided to give me back some bro....




Lol. The Futures Association recognises that futures trading is a zero sum game. There are no winning traders without the losers. The NFA rebate was introduced in order to acknowledge the contribution of losers to the industry as a whole... 

P.S. I can't shake the feeling that the second day reaction to the FOMC change of stance would be negative...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Lol. The Futures Association recognises that futures trading is a zero sum game. There are no winning traders without the losers. The NFA rebate was introduced in order to acknowledge the contribution of losers to the industry as a whole...




Makes sense! 



skc said:


> P.S. I can't shake the feeling that the second day reaction to the FOMC change of stance would be negative...




The DAX is setting it up for ya nicely then.


----------



## VSntchr

skc said:


> P.S. I can't shake the feeling that the second day reaction to the FOMC change of stance would be negative...



+1 
Haven't acted on it...but got "them feels".


----------



## Valued

Well I will let you guys know if I go bankrupt.* I have shorted multiple markets, not the dax though. If the markets now rally hard you know I was wrong and you can all beat me with a big stick. It's a longer term trade though, holding time probably weeks unless I get stopped out. The bulls may run me over yet


*not really, but I might blow most of my profits from a recent excellent trade.


----------



## CanOz

Saw this on the twatter, thought I'd share....

Gurus and thier recent calls....


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Saw this on the twatter, thought I'd share....
> 
> Gurus and thier recent calls....




I recognise Janjuah, Gartman, Gross and Cramer.

Who are the other heads?

Funny pic but I imagine it's forcing the point a little, as Gartman flips positions every other day, he was probably long stocks and short bonds the day before and the day after that call :

I think it always pays to remember that the outcome of any individual trade, position or call is always 50:50 (or close) unless you believe that they can predict the future. These guys aren't pushing their entire AUM to be long or short based on what they call on Bloomberg or CNBC, they're pretty much always long bonds and short equity vol (or equivalent).


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> I recognise Janjuah, Gartman, Gross and Cramer.
> 
> Who are the other heads?
> 
> Funny pic but I imagine it's forcing the point a little, as Gartman flips positions every other day, he was probably long stocks and short bonds the day before and the day after that call :
> 
> I think it always pays to remember that the outcome of any individual trade, position or call is always 50:50 (or close) unless you believe that they can predict the future. These guys aren't pushing their entire AUM to be long or short based on what they call on Bloomberg or CNBC, they're pretty much always long bonds and short equity vol (or equivalent).




All i recognized were Gartman, Ichan, Gross and Cramer...i just thought it was a funny chart


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> All i recognized were Gartman, Ichan, Gross and Cramer...i just thought it was a funny chart



Carl Icahn's attempt to suck in the newbies.



> When Carl Icahn put together an elaborate presentation on why he thought the stock market was in trouble, investors took notice ”” and started buying.
> 
> In fact, Icahn's doom-saying seems to have had just the opposite effect, with the market staging its strongest run of the year just as the famed activist investor pushed the opposite case.
> 
> Since his video, titled "Danger Ahead," hit Sept. 29 ”” followed by a CNBC appearance the following day ”” the S&P 500 has been on something of a tear, gaining about 7 percent and making a run at turning positive for the year.




Newbies ----- it's all about the churn.


----------



## notting

To put it nicely ~ Icahn is a total d h., 
He has big bets on the banks.
He needed a rate rise so they can get a bit of space for margins.
So when the fed pulled out of the September rate rise ruining his big bets that the banks would eventually start a bit of a run up, on the back of a rise, he went all out video trashing the market trying to make out that the fed was ruining the world by not rising rates.  You know, Fed causing all kinds of bubbles cause money is too easy.  Him and Trump should go off and live on a desert Island together with a bottle of baby oil and get out of our faces.


----------



## cynic

It's only taken me 10 days and several hundred trades to recover from my last heavy dosage of post Draghi drawdown. Now I see that he's due to flap his gums yet again!

Will my account survive to see the next sunrise?


----------



## Wysiwyg

notting said:


> Him and Trump should go off and live on a desert Island together with a bottle of baby oil and get out of our faces.



Very large stacks always command attention no matter how much BS passes their lips. Are his client all cash? Oh that's right "it's when it will happen".


----------



## notting

Don't forget the facts - such as the majority of pundits and big wigs were predicting the Fed would move in September.
Fact - August was when the market began to rupture in anticipation of that.
Fact - Markets began to recover when the Fed didn't.
Icahn had bet on the rise and subsequently (when the Fed didn't) came out with all this crap about how the fed had to raise because he was on the wrong side of the trade.
He has no conscience and is as ruthless as you can be, totally motivated by his position regardless of what happens to the economy or anyone else.  He will just say what he wants to support his bet.  This guy is not someone you should listen to for some kind of general overview.
All along Buffet was saying the market was not overvalued.  Listen in that direction for a balanced overveiw if you need one.


----------



## CanOz

Looks like we could be in a spot of bother for a while....


----------



## Valued

China news comes out tonight and tomorrow night as well. Expect some volatility!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Valued said:


> China news comes out tonight and tomorrow night as well. Expect some volatility!




Industrial Production? Its been undershooting for years. Ya reckon it would be baked in as another disappointment which would need to be calamitous to actually be bad or chance of it surprising on the upside?


----------



## Valued

Trembling Hand said:


> Industrial Production? Its been undershooting for years. Ya reckon it would be baked in as another disappointment which would need to be calamitous to actually be bad or chance of it surprising on the upside?




In addition to industrial production there is also retail sales data. I think though because of the sell off yesterday and bad trade data from China the market may be more sensitive to bad news. I also think it will be used as an excuse for people to throw their weight around in the fx markets. Bad news of any kind would be a problem for the AUD and NZD.


----------



## sinner

The last handful sessions have contained mighty interesting moves in the measure of how many S&P500 component stocks are above their 200SMA. Both up and down moves in this measure have been pretty volatile recently, indicating a lot of stocks are experiencing choppy conditions near their yearly means. I added the ROC1 to demonstrate but the line is a little crowded out from the bigger move in Aug. 




Besides the volatility, the trendline is what interests me most. Keen to hear others opinions of fewer names joining the party on each run on the index. Sign of weakness to come? Headroom for a rally? New normal where a handful of names run higher while the rest of them hold steady? 

Let's just say, this is the good breadth chart, because outside of the large cap sector things seem a lot weaker. Anecdotally, my US holdings aren't participating (mostly flat), and I do hold some Berkshire so I did note those good quality companies picked by Buffet and Munger are in the same boat.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Industrial Production? Its been undershooting for years. Ya reckon it would be baked in as another disappointment which would need to be calamitous to actually be bad or chance of it surprising on the upside?




And it plays out that way. A slight miss followed by a fall in Shanghai and HSI which results in a buying opportunity now back to flat, no move in AUD ...... Next


----------



## sinner

sinner said:


> Besides the volatility, the trendline is what interests me most. Keen to hear others opinions of fewer names joining the party on each run on the index. Sign of weakness to come? Headroom for a rally? New normal where a handful of names run higher while the rest of them hold steady?




Answering my own question after spotting this on Dana Lyons' twitter today
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/132922686075/another-less-than-meets-the-eye-nasdaq-rally




It's a NASDAQ study but I'd guess the general rule applies: possible for the index to make significant runs without majority participation.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> It's a NASDAQ study but I'd guess the general rule applies: possible for the index to make significant runs without majority participation.




Yeah I find its only a few rare times that breadth signals a big turn - it has to really line up clearly with lots of other stuff. Mostly its a good indication of small cycles 5-20 days but not amplitude of the cycles.

Up>down>up can represent the same breadth pattern as,
up>consolidate>up on the index.


----------



## skc

Interesting article on Bloomberg about "strange things" in the market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...that-have-been-happening-in-financial-markets

Unintended consequence of Central Bank dominated markets? Early signs of something's about to break? Or just markets evolving and moving on from data of the past?


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah I find its only a few rare times that breadth signals a big turn - it has to really line up clearly with lots of other stuff. Mostly its a good indication of small cycles 5-20 days but not amplitude of the cycles.
> 
> Up>down>up can represent the same breadth pattern as,
> up>consolidate>up on the index.




Pretty good analysis from GS here on breadth stuff, including a bunch of things I had never considered like "which factors do best in narrow breadth" (hint, the only one I'm still heavily weighted on does poorly).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...-very-worried-about-collapsing-market-breadth


----------



## DeepState

skc said:


> Interesting article on Bloomberg about "strange things" in the market.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...that-have-been-happening-in-financial-markets
> 
> Unintended consequence of Central Bank dominated markets? Early signs of something's about to break? Or just markets evolving and moving on from data of the past?




Found this interesting. Thanks for posting it.

My take is that these are caused by:
- increased capital charges for market making activity at deposit-taking institutions following Dodd-Frank and Basel recommendations and laws....making markets more jumpy due to lower liquidity...and increasing the premium required for bearing illiquid assets; and
- changes in settlement procedures....taking credit risk out of swaps.

These are not really the outcomes of central bank actions.  In general, the central banks have helped to contain volatility since the GFC, in my view. The central banks are still there to offer liquidity over good collateral.  However, it is now well accepted that the loss of market making capability has led to a reduction of 'deep' liquidity.  The market still looks liquid at touch-to-touch, but doesn't handle large trades as well any more.

This matters a lot when you are setting stops. The effective embedded cost of these stops is now materially higher than it was previously.  

All things equal, the market is now more fragile than it had been.  Thankfully, the banking system is less levered than it had been.  I am concerned that there is risk arising of some other LTCM out there.  An entity too-big-to-fail but which is not regulated or subject to capital buffers etc. Where there is a regulation, there will be regulatory arbitrage.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting gap down today. We have a Monday gap, that in my experience usually gets filled the same day if not the next, if not by the end of the week. Then we have a global geopolitical event, the Paris attacks. We know from the past that, as horrible and despicable these attacks are, the effect they have on financial markets is not sustained. With this context in the background, we can then look for longs above the session low, in my view.


Actually i wouldn't be surprised if the finance arm if ISIL/IS or whatever is covering their shorts as the markets open....:frown:


----------



## Valued

CanOz said:


> Interesting gap down today. We have a Monday gap, that in my experience usually gets filled the same day if not the next, if not by the end of the week. Then we have a global geopolitical event, the Paris attacks. We know from the past that, as horrible and despicable these attacks are, the effect they have on financial markets is not sustained. With this context in the background, we can then look for longs above the session low, in my view.
> 
> 
> Actually i wouldn't be surprised if the finance arm if ISIL/IS or whatever is covering their shorts as the markets open....:frown:




The thing at the back of my mind though is that the markets were already going down prior to the attacks, for a whole week. If the conditions that were causing that are still going to continue, any filling of the gap is also likely to be short lived. I think the assessment you have to make is whether you think the sell off would continue if the Paris attacks did not happen. There are arguments either way.


----------



## CanOz

Valued said:


> The thing at the back of my mind though is that the markets were already going down prior to the attacks, for a whole week. If the conditions that were causing that are still going to continue, any filling of the gap is also likely to be short lived. I think the assessment you have to make is whether you think the sell off would continue if the Paris attacks did not happen. There are arguments either way.




Yeah, too right. There is still a technical argument for shorts that needs to be proved. I'll leave that up to my profiles...


----------



## shouldaindex

U.S Markets have been pretty much range bound for the past 24 months (Dow Jones 16000 to 18000).  

I think technical people would say expect a breakout of similar range.

So if the Fed rise in December, that could give it clear air to pick in a direction (14000 or 20000).


----------



## Logique

Certainly not easy to predict market action lately. The scenario this guy presents is one possible interpretation. 



> *Why the global market is surprisingly resilient after Paris attacks*
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...after-paris-attacks-2015-11-16?dist=countdown
> By Joseph Adinolfi  Published: Nov 16, 2015
> 
> Financial markets have been surprisingly resilient despite Friday’s attacks in Paris. And market strategists think they have an explanation.
> 
> Markets have been resilient, several strategists said, because low interest rates and loose monetary conditions in Europe have already depressed investors’ appetite for risk to a surprising degree.
> 
> And investors’ increased optimism that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December policy meeting, has only widened the gulf between the eurozone’s policy outlook and the that in the U.S.
> 
> Because of this, risk assets like U.S. and eurozone stocks have sold off so far this month as investors brace for a coming interest rate increase from the Fed, a move many believe will rattle markets.
> 
> This has left little room for a further decline, the strategists said...........


----------



## CanOz

*NYSE to eliminate "stop orders" from February*

Held at the broker now?


----------



## CanOz

Lots of bearish wedges around still, i wonder if we'll trap longs on a break of the consolidation just above the current prices...?


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> *NYSE to eliminate "stop orders" from February*
> 
> Held at the broker now?




Presumably that would be at the discretion of the broker. I'd expect that some may facilitate the translation of contingent orders into market orders when the stipulated price level is touched.


----------



## Valued

CanOz said:


> *NYSE to eliminate "stop orders" from February*
> 
> Held at the broker now?




I bet the brokers will advertise stop orders as some special feature with new and extra fees...


----------



## kid hustlr

Really surprised by the stop loss news.


----------



## CanOz

Divergence between the DAX and Eurostoxx again, we're due for a pullback.


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Divergence between the DAX and Eurostoxx again, we're due for a pullback.




That'd be right! The day after I dump a truckload of short exposure right near the qtr high!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> That'd be right! The day after I dump a truckload of short exposure right near the qtr high!




Might only be a session or two, some pretty good resistance has been crushed lately...i guess it should be good support now.


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Might only be a session or two, some pretty good resistance has been crushed lately...i guess it should be good support now.




I'm actually hoping that you're right and that the market subsequently validates my decision to bail. It would make for a nice change from the usual experience of seeing the market go exactly where I needed it to shortly after conceding defeat.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Divergence between the DAX and Eurostoxx again, we're due for a pullback.




There often is because of the different sector weightings. Especially lately with the Yuan, VW, EURO$ & Rates stories effecting different stuff.


----------



## CanOz

Yes i understand TH, my evidence is only from observations. The CAC and FTSE are also heavily divergent. In my experience continuation is better if they all agree.


----------



## cynic

Correct me if I am mistaken on this, but I was of the understanding that the DAX is a bit unusual on account of being a price weighted accumulation index.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> Correct me if I am mistaken on this, but I was of the understanding that the DAX is a bit unusual on account of being a price weighted accumulation index.




Thats the DOW


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> There often is because of the different sector weightings. Especially lately with the Yuan, VW, EURO$ & Rates stories effecting different stuff.
> 
> View attachment 65056
> View attachment 65057




I suppose if I'm going to post the divergences i should test to see if statistically there is any merit to the DAX making a higher high and the others lagging....

I'll put this on the list for my statistician....


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats the DOW




Does that mean that the DAX isn't PWI or isn't an accumulation index or both?


----------



## CanOz

I was thinking about a short of a couple contracts at 11049 on the DAX, with a stop above 11000. Then, considering its Friday and I'll be doing :drink:, while Draghi is doing :karaoke:, you'd have to be :screwy:

So I'll sit and watch this for a while....maybe read my new book


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> I was thinking about a short of a couple contracts at 11049 on the DAX, with a stop above 11000. Then, considering its Friday and I'll be doing :drink:, while Draghi is doing :karaoke:, you'd have to be :screwy:
> 
> So I'll sit and watch this for a while....maybe read my new book




Short at 11049 and a stop at 11000, have you already had a few :drink: haha


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Short at 11049 and a stop at 11000, have you already had a few :drink: haha




its well within my risk if i use the mini


----------



## CanOz

looks like we might challenge that little gap around the 11200 if we can keep this bid going through the cash...

Obviously that urge to short has passed...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> its well within my risk if i use the mini




You sure


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> looks like we might challenge that little gap around the 11200 if we can keep this bid going through the cash...
> 
> Obviously that urge to short has passed...




Are you referring to the little gap waaaay back in August?


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Are you referring to the little gap waaaay back in August?





mmm, 12th of August


----------



## cynic

Just when I thought the extraordinary run of disruptive events was finally behind me, my power company decides to let me down. 

I am now in the midst of my third power outage today. Fortunately the second one was reasonably quickly remedied, and my UPS and batteries should hopefully see me through to the end of my trading session. 

However, I must say that the number of diverse and annoying things I've had to contend with this past couple of weeks is severely testing the last vestiges of my somewhat limited patience!


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Just when I thought the extraordinary run of disruptive events was finally behind me, my power company decides to let me down.
> 
> I am now in the midst of my third power outage today. Fortunately the second one was reasonably quickly remedied, and my UPS and batteries should hopefully see me through to the end of my trading session.
> 
> However, I must say that the number of diverse and annoying things I've had to contend with this past couple of weeks is severely testing the last vestiges of my somewhat limited patience!




Hooray!!

Power has just resumed, and my power company actually managed to comfortably beat their previous record by a couple of hours!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Cynic, do you believe in that whole 'law of attraction' thing?


----------



## CanOz

Interesting charts from a well known poster on another forum...


----------



## cynic

Gringotts Bank said:


> Cynic, do you believe in that whole 'law of attraction' thing?




Unfortunately yes.


----------



## VSntchr

cynic said:


> Just when I thought the extraordinary run of disruptive events was finally behind me, my power company decides to let me down.
> 
> I am now in the midst of my third power outage today. Fortunately the second one was reasonably quickly remedied, and my UPS and batteries should hopefully see me through to the end of my trading session.
> 
> However, I must say that the number of diverse and annoying things I've had to contend with this past couple of weeks is severely testing the last vestiges of my somewhat limited patience!




Certainly a good reminder to have redundancy plan! Laptop fully charged in case of power outage, phone with hotspot for internet, gas powered generator, windmill and solar panels  :


----------



## cynic

VSntchr said:


> Certainly a good reminder to have redundancy plan! Laptop fully charged in case of power outage, phone with hotspot for internet, gas powered generator, windmill and solar panels  :




Yes. My UPS was fully exhausted along with my first laptop before yesterday's close. Luckily I had an additional 3 laptops charged and ready of which only one had to be deployed. However, trading from laptops via candlelight is not nearly so romantic as it sounds!!


----------



## Modest

cynic said:


> Yes. My UPS was fully exhausted along with my first laptop before yesterday's close. Luckily I had an additional 3 laptops charged and ready of which only one had to be deployed. However, trading from laptops via candlelight is not nearly so romantic as it sounds!!




What kind of redundancy do you have in place for your Internet connection?


----------



## cynic

Modest said:


> What kind of redundancy do you have in place for your Internet connection?




I have both ADSL and wireless broadband services and usually keep a couple of prepaid wireless USB modems with another carrier as a precautionary measure. In all my years trading I've only ever had to temporarily use an alternative carrier once.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

cynic said:


> Unfortunately yes.




Me too.  Hard to prove, but seems likely that's how things work.


----------



## CanOz

Holy smokes, i might have to work today, the Chinese market dropped 2%+


----------



## Modest

Do you guys think the market has changed after the August 24th  flash crash? Just a general question, purposely vague and curious to see what you guys think...


----------



## explod

Modest said:


> Do you guys think the market has changed after the August 24th  flash crash? Just a general question, purposely vague and curious to see what you guys think...




I feel a contolled calm in western,  US,  EU,  markets since then.  Have been pondering the subject myself.  Markets are going up at quiet times of trade which could well be pumping. 

MSM business media has become rehashed BS with little tangible substance. 

Be very interested in the views of the prime traders on here.


----------



## CanOz

Waiting for the prime traders to show up....corn:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Anyone know much about month-end trades? Today being the last day of the month I remember hearing something about they push it higher to balance the books or something, but wasn't sure if that was just bonds etc.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Anyone know much about month-end trades? Today being the last day of the month I remember hearing something about they push it higher to balance the books or something, but wasn't sure if that was just bonds etc.




Well there as always the 'month end window dressing' that was supposed to happen. This is something else we can get some data on...


----------



## minwa

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Anyone know much about month-end trades? Today being the last day of the month I remember hearing something about they push it higher to balance the books or something, but wasn't sure if that was just bonds etc.




From Larry Williams: from about 18th TRADING day (not calendar) of the month, bonds tend to rally into month end. Not sure if the idea came from him but that's where I heard it from.

Not sure if there's anything specific for being last day of month for day trading purposes, but Mondays are generally bullish if bonds are in uptrend.


----------



## skyQuake

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Anyone know much about month-end trades? Today being the last day of the month I remember hearing something about they push it higher to balance the books or something, but wasn't sure if that was just bonds etc.




MSCI rebalances at close today. Lots of flows and adds/dels


----------



## Wysiwyg

skyQuake said:


> MSCI rebalances at close today. Lots of flows and adds/dels



Second highest daily volume for the All Ords today for the calendar year. Don't know what that means.


----------



## cynic

Trading by candlelight again!!

Hopefully the power company will be able to improve on the 16 and a bit hours they took to fix the last outage!


----------



## Modest

cynic said:


> Trading by candlelight again!!
> 
> Hopefully the power company will be able to improve on the power16 and a bit hours to fix the last outage!










Should be tax deductible?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Wysiwyg said:


> Second highest daily volume for the All Ords today for the calendar year. Don't know what that means.




The words "China slowdown" and "end of the mining boom" seem to be sinking into the financial media's consciousness quite deeply.  I can't see anything good to buy.  It might just be me, that part is always hard to work out.

Gold stocks maybe.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Trading by candlelight again!!
> 
> Hopefully the power company will be able to improve on the 16 and a bit hours they took to fix the last outage!




Lights back on in less than an hour!! I'm both relieved and impressed! Anyhow, back to trading the daemonic bourse.


----------



## cynic

Modest said:


> Should be tax deductible?




Certainly would be, but first a taxable income to deduct against would need to be generated!


----------



## CanOz

Not sure how much the market will be moving today before the announcement, but I'm not anticipating allot.

This should be the day that MArio announces more stimulus for the EU. Likely bonds are going to go off later...anyway I'll wait and keep the powder dry for the fireworks latercorn:


----------



## CanOz

Stellar opening drive and NT is freezing up like a woman after the 5th kid....c:


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Stellar opening drive and NT is freezing up like a woman after the 5th kid....c:




Crappo, this is woeful, another re-start....must be the connectivity tonight.:frown:


----------



## CanOz

I've never seen an announcement play so much havoc with the markets, ever....


----------



## qldfrog

indeed what a kick in the antnest, oil surging up, wall street serious fall, will be interesting on the xao....


----------



## CanOz

The ECB has stuffed up again. Clearly not only have they under delivered but they showed no clue on managing expectations. That's one thing i'll give the Fed, they've learned how to manage expectations so that the markets can gradually price them in. The ECB has not got a clue on this. This view is also shared by Blanchflower...

Did the ECB Get Cold Feet?

Now, the other thing that had me going last night was that the market were clearly reacting to this well before the rate announcement and the following the press conference. 

I couldn't get short if i wanted to as the data just wasn't coming in fast enough for me to execute anything. If i had the experience again i would have been better prepared for this, with all my platforms open. I only had NT open. There were numerous places to get short on the sell off, i'm sure if i were better prepared i could have got in with either a CFD or a single Dax contract. This was the most volatile event that i have ever witnessed in the book, bar none.

The good news for intra-day punters is this should give us a higher level of volatility in the weeks leading up to Christmas, especially with lower liquidity.

Anyway, more fireworks tonight with a huge job number out. If its a good number, the DX should move into short covering mode, taking a bunch of stuff with it. I don't think the ES has a fully priced in rate rise, so it could get hit harder. Technical patterns are looking pretty bearish but we should get a retest of all the wedge breaks. 

So I'm expecting a short covering rally then perhaps Mario could be looking like the Grinch that stole Christmas!:shoot::chimney:


----------



## Chris.M

CanOz said:


> Now, the other thing that had me going last night was that the market were clearly reacting to this well before the rate announcement and the following the press conference.




CanOz, maybe this had something to do with it:
Accidental Financial Times tweet rocks world markets


----------



## CanOz

Chris.M said:


> CanOz, maybe this had something to do with it:
> Accidental Financial Times tweet rocks world markets




Yup, that's it, thanks mate. I was scouring the news trying to find out what the heck was going on. This kind of thing happens far too often, without consequence.



> “Due to an editing error it was published when it should not have been. Automated feeds meant that the initial error was compounded by being simultaneously published on Twitter.” “The FT deeply regrets this serious mistake and will immediately be reviewing its publication and workflow processes to ensure such an error cannot happen again,” it added.




 I can get indicted for throwing a 250 lot on the CL offer, yet if i make a mistake and tweet something like this i don't even get fired!:frown: Total BS.


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> I've never seen an announcement play so much havoc with the markets, ever....




Wait till we see Yellen announces a rate rise... :couch


----------



## CanOz

Well the Santa Claus rally might not happen, most markets are definetly posturing bearishly more than bullishly.

Where is Sinner with his indicators?

I'd say we're looking at a gap down in Europe today unless the Asian markets make up ground lost on the back of the news


> 09:56*(CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE: CNY343.1B v CNY407.5Be- Exports Y/Y: % v -5.0%e- Imports Y/Y: % v -11.9%e - Source TradeTheNews.com




The other news thats affecting the Yen is 



> 07:50*(JP) JAPAN Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.0%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: 1.0% V 0.2%E; Japan AVOIDS technical recession- Nominal GDP: 0.4% v 0.2%e- GDP Deflator: 1.8% v 2.0%e - Source TradeTheNews.com




So its caught a bid this morning too....

So might be the time for some longs to liquidate! Sorry Santa :ak47: :xmaswave:, you're not welcome here this year, especially in the classroom!


----------



## Modest

Is the AUD against the USD rising because of the expected rate rise(s) locally or some other thing all together? I'm not complaining, I'm an importer!


----------



## CanOz

The 6J has really got a bid this morning, bad data again out of China and Abe hinting that his economy is no longer deflating seem to creating a nice storm to roll across the markets today, the first day of trading for the new year. 

Its 2016 and we welcome the volatility!


----------



## CanOz

Shanghai getting messy, must be the smog...:bad:



> 13:34(CN) Chinese equites halted for 2nd time in session after 7.0% decline; Shanghai and Shenzhen market now closed for the day (related SPY PGJ DIA FXI EEM) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

Yeah just amazing, the down up down up looks set to roll on


----------



## qldfrog

blood snd tears today?
last check this morning..I am ready


----------



## Logique

What a bizarre start in China.   



> Opinion: China’s rigged markets could fall much further, much faster
> By Craig Stephen - Published: Jan 4, 2016
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ch...further-much-faster-2016-01-04?dist=countdown
> 
> ...The black start to January trading had its roots in the controversial government intervention last summer to rescue stocks from a rout, which wiped over $4 trillion off share values and sent shock waves around global markets.
> 
> This appeared to have paid off after a subsequent partial market rebound, yet it always left a worrying overhang both from resulting heavy state ownership and the imposition of a *six-month ban on major shareholders (over 5%) from selling* positions.
> 
> With that* six-month moratorium ending this coming Friday*, investors were spooked that there could be an avalanche of pent-up selling.
> 
> And this time around will the government still be around to come in as buyer of the last resort?...


----------



## Modest

George Soros sees echoes of 2008 crisis



> Global markets are facing a crisis and investors need to be very cautious, billionaire George Soros told an economic forum in Sri Lanka on Thursday.
> 
> China is struggling to find a new growth model and its currency devaluation is transferring problems to the rest of the world, Soros said in Colombo. A return to positive interest rates is a challenge for the developing world, he said, adding that the current environment has similarities to 2008.
> 
> Global currency, stock and commodity markets are under fire in the first week of the new year, with a sinking yuan adding to concern about the strength of China's economy as it shifts away from investment and manufacturing toward consumption and services. Almost $US2.5 trillion was wiped from the value of global equities this year through Wednesday, and losses deepened in Asia on Thursday as a plunge in Chinese equities halted trade for the rest of the day.
> 
> "China has a major adjustment problem," Soros said. "I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008."
> 
> Soros has warned of a 2008-like catastrophe before. On a panel in Washington in September 2011, he said the Greece-born European debt crunch was "more serious than the crisis of 2008".
> 
> Soros, whose hedge-fund firm gained about 20 per cent a year on average from 1969 to 2011, has a net worth of about $US27.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He began his career in New York City in the 1950s and gained a reputation for his investing prowess in 1992 by netting $US1 billion with a bet that the UK would be forced to devalue the pound.
> 
> Measures of volatility are surging. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the fear gauge or the VIX, jumped 21 per cent on Thursday in New York, to lift it 36 per cent so far this year. The Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index, which measures the cost of protection on Japanese shares, has climbed 43 per cent in 2016 and a Merrill Lynch index of anticipated price swings in Treasury bonds rose 5.7 per cent.
> 
> 
> China's Communist Party has pledged to increase the yuan's convertibility by 2020 and to gradually dismantle capital controls. Weakness in the world's second-largest economy remains even after the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates to record lows and authorities pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. Data this week reinforced a sluggish manufacturing sector.
> 
> At the closing bell in New York on Thursday, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 2.4 per cent. The index is down 4.9 per cent this year, its worst start in data going back to 1928. The Dow slumped 2.3 per cent, while the Nasdaq lost 3 per cent.
> 
> The selling began in China, where stocks plunged 7 per cent after the central bank cut the yuan's reference rate by the most since August. The rout this year in Europe surpassed 6 per cent, as Germany's DAX fell below 10,000 for the first time since October. The DAX was down 2.6 per cent at 9953.33 at about 4.15pm in Frankfurt.




http://www.afr.com/markets/george-soros-sees-echoes-of-2008-crisis-20160107-gm1jgb


----------



## shouldaindex

Outstanding U.S Jobs report, but sentiment seems to be that it could lead to a faster Fed Hike timeline which will affect the 35% overvalued CAPE.

Oil also back down to $32.

Funny how all the mechinations work.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Many talk about China chaos and global market drop. But there are opportunities even in markets like today.

Globally, listed poultry stocks are doing well despite global market selloff. Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC) up by more than 3% on a volume of 2667628. TSN and SAFM are also resilient. Shares in Shenzhen-listed (China) poultry producers also went up on a volume of 3645184. Lay Hong Berhad listed poultry company in Malaysia is also up by more than 3% on Friday. Chicken and egg stocks could outperform others in 2016 due to strong poultry market outlook. 

Listed Asian poultry producers also should do well in 2016 due to tight poultry supply situation and demand for poultry products. Lower oil and feed prices are benefiting their industry lot. Many countries in Asia and Middle East have banned or suspended poultry products import from France as well.

Finally, we should see strong rebound in global markets sooner than later. South Asia has more edge over other Asian region. There will be opportunities in markets such Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Europe and the USA in selected sectors. Among frontier markets, Sri-Lanka is attractive on valuation and we can see some strong activities in the coming months. Chinese consumer sector and internet sector will have more growth over other sectors. Both Australia and New Zealand will have more opportunity to export meat to China in the coming decade.

We should see more weakness in commodity prices in 2016 as well. After long period gold should trade below $1000.Oil importing countries and commodity consuming companies will become winners. Global consumers will have more money in their pocket thanks to lower oil and gas prices. They will create demand for other products. 

Asian currencies especially south Asian currencies should appreciate against basket of currencies including NZD and AUD in 2016.USD also will stay strong. 

We are not going to see end of easy money policy in this year. FED might have cautious approach to their rate decisions. Still there will be demand for stocks globally in 2016 as well. China chaos is opening up another great opportunity for global investors in global stock market. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## shouldaindex

Does this mean my $2 meal deal from KFC is going up?

How about that turn overnight on the markets, I was in my pajamas at 4am watching google finance.


----------



## shouldaindex

Saw something on CNBC worthwhile (I know I'm surprised too).

Extremely strong correlation between the S&P 500 and the Yuan and Oil price depreciation over the past year.

Also showed there could be a short-term bounce off a range, but ultimately the big picture on current fundamentals and technicals looks down.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting.......

The bottom must be getting close, the fund managers are getting out I heard Gartman was bearish now too...



> 11:01RBS said to have advised its clients to "sell everything" but high quality bonds - financial press (update)- Warns major stock markets may fall by as much as 20% and oil could fall to $16/brl.- Seeing s more... (related USO SPY IYM EEM) - Source TradeTheNews.com




Interbank rates in HK...



> 11:21(HK) Offshore overnight yuan HIBOR 66.82% (fresh record high) v 13.4% yesterday - Source TradeTheNews.com





USD/CNH - the CNY off shore rate


----------



## Logique

CanOz said:


> Interesting.......
> The bottom must be getting close, the fund managers are getting out I heard Gartman was bearish now too...



JP Morgan too.  

We just need the taxi drivers to start telling us to sell, and the criteria for a turnaround will be met!

Not sure if the same rule applies to Uber drivers.


----------



## cynic

Trading by candlelight again!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Trading by candlelight again!




how romantic!


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> how romantic!




Yep! A definite love  hate relationship. I now love to hate my power supplier!


----------



## CanOz

Logique said:


> JP Morgan too.
> 
> We just need the taxi drivers to start telling us to sell, and the criteria for a turnaround will be met!
> 
> _Not sure if the same rule applies to Uber drivers_.




lol....Well the ones I've met have been brighter, that's for sure.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Yep! A definite love  hate relationship. I now love to hate my power supplier!




Only took em 4 and bit hours to fix this one and get the lights back on.


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Only took em 4 and bit hours to fix this one and get the lights back on.




Have to go solar Cynic!


----------



## CanOz

I always hate to be too bullish or bearish, it tends to cloud your judgement for too long and as an intraday outright trader, i need to be able to flip...well right now, holy crap i'm bearish and i just can't shake it Every equity index chart i open has lower extensions ending 7-10% lower from current closes....


----------



## Modest

I just put 96% of of my super in cash option....better safe than sorry I say!


----------



## shouldaindex

DJI can't buy a good start!

By my calculations out of 9 trading days this year, 6 have opened positive and all 6 turned negative at some stage intraday.


----------



## shouldaindex

Dow Jones: 3 hours to go, -460 down.

Wonder if it's brave enough to stage a comeback.


----------



## notting

One stupid comment being repeated in the media at the moment, by fools all over the place, is that the globe is in for trouble because China has been contributing 50% to the insipid growth for the last 5 years or so and so if China is not growing then we're all headed for the GFC replay.

What a load of absolute crap.

China has simply being peddling out BS figures, whilst ratcheting up in house debt since the GFC.

A China collapse is not the disaster, sure it matters a bit and some exporters are gonna lose some numbers, but it's the US driving global growth and the US will continue to.

The fact that growth has been conservative and steady is a good thing too.  The US recover, thus, hasn't gone too far too soon and still has plenty of room to climb on a steady plane, hence!
Historically, we get a 15% correcting every 300 trading days.  We haven't had one since the GFC.  It's about time and it's not the end of the new world, it's just the end of Chinese bullsh1t!


----------



## shouldaindex

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/when-the-fed-raises-rates-heres-what-happens.html

How soon do Recessions occur after the First Rate Rise in the USA, within:

1 year - 1
2 years - 3 
3 years - 2
4 years - 3 
5 years - 0
6 years - 1
7 years - 1  
8 years - 2 

(non accumulative)

The average drawdown from these is about -35%, so you need to make about +50% before this occurs to just end up with the same amount of money.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Is lower oil good for the Economy? Yes
Are interest rates low? Yes. Still it is historically low.
Are valuations too high? No. Globally there are plenty of value markets, sectors and stocks 
Can we expect higher earnings from listed companies globally? Yes.

Strong fundamentals are still intact. Therefore, year of 2016 is going to be another year of opportunity. 

There are two types of fear in the market

•The fear coming from unknown news
•The fear of missing out gain 

Latter is going to be very strong in the coming weeks

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/14/2016-rout-not-end-of-stock-bull-market-tom-lee.html
2016 rout NOT end of stock bull market: Tom Lee

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## shouldaindex

Binary outcome for me.

U.S Recession type event based on worsening Commodities and China in the next 18 months YES or NO.

That result probably swings the market by about 40% (-20% vs +20%) using a general estimate based on historical data.


----------



## CanOz

MARKETWINNER said:


> •The fear of missing out gain
> 
> Latter is going to be very strong in the coming weeks
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/14/2016-rout-not-end-of-stock-bull-market-tom-lee.html
> 2016 rout NOT end of stock bull market: Tom Lee




MARKETWINNER -- FOMO or Fear of Missing Out is commonly assocated with tops, not bottoms....The herd, captivated by stories from taxi drivers, plough into the market, buying from those who seek to either go to bonds or cash, or short....

Here's my 

For the SPI - if we take out 4665 then we test the August low for sure. If we fail to find initiative buyers at that low, then were testing 4635 for sure. If we fail there, the SPI is going to 4420 and most likely to 4300.

If the ES tests the Friday low again, in the event of a failure there then most certainly the August low which is the most likely scenario. A failure there could find buyers at 1775, or 1717. My most bearish view would be 1150...

The Dax, as per the chart. 

This all depends allot on some fundamental issues too. Such as:

1.) a reasonably poor GDP number out of China tomorrow (this means a number that seems real).
2.) No intervention, stimulus or any kind of easing from the ECB, BOC or the Fed

Of course it will be easier to anticipate continuation as continuation unfolds. But for now, that's my downside potential.

Somethings I'll look to do when i feel we have a bottom in would be to take more positions on my swing portfolio. I have not taken many shorts in equities, other than one of Nick's and the ETF HYG.

I don't see anything at the moment that says these declines are ready to establish some kind of bullish balance area before a push higher...


----------



## CanOz

China GDP is Tuesday at 10:00 AM Shanghai time...


----------



## shouldaindex

It'll be 'fixed' at 6.9% I assume.

Just for fun, a few graphs where you can use your intuition, where do they look like going?


----------



## CanOz

Not enough information, nice try though...

There's allot of banter at the moment among macro traders about the GDP number....china knows the world knows that they've been sprung. There's a good article on seeking alpha regarding what the number could mean. 6.5-7.0 and they're still faking it, 6.0-6.5 could be realistic. Less than 6 and it's likely even worse than they're saying.


----------



## CanOz

shouldaindex said:


> It'll be 'fixed' at 6.9% I assume.
> 
> Just for fun, a few graphs where you can use your intuition, where do they look like going?
> 
> View attachment 65565
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> S&P 500
> 
> View attachment 65566
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> XJO
> 
> View attachment 65567
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FTSE 100
> 
> View attachment 65568



  and the Hang Seng

Every one of these markets is going lower, if you want to know the potential of the move, targets along the way or levels where we could see short covering rallies, let me know. I can't give you too much info as i am a little busy. But i am happy to give you a few on a market and you can watch for yourself...


----------



## CanOz

FWIW, i think we're very close to a decent bounce/short covering rally. So keep a look out if youre trading indices. I'd ideally like to see a little probe lower first to find some buyers....The yen looks like its due for a rest as well...We'll see. Keep an eye on CL as well.


----------



## Modest

I'm always on a lookout for a bounce


----------



## CanOz

IG has the Dax opening at 9630, we might see an open drive higher but i really hope we sell off to the prior close and pick up some buyers there in RTH


----------



## sinner

Here's a quick update:

Volatility: elevated in the bad way. ~60% allocation maximum.
Breadth: Craptastic all over. The collapse in NASDAQ-100 breadth since 2016 kicked off has been staggering.
Credit: Even Investment Grade is starting to feel the pinch. The BBB options adjusted spread is well into wides we saw in 2011 and 2008 now.
Industrial commods and oil: Y'all know this already. Busted and the Baltic Dry is on the same road. Liquidity provider positioning for the AUD has *not budged* from the sort of extremes which normally precede a reversal. But in comparison to the CAD, could be worse.
Valuations: still obscenely expensive. Coupled with volatility measures and forecast against a 10Y Tbond, a *Sharpe based allocation would be 0% or close*.

ES technicals:
* daily oversold
* weekly oversold
* monthly oversold

No indicators of increasing risk sentiment from investors.

Enjoy.


----------



## shouldaindex

Just doing some sums for the past 3 days (plus weekend futures):

Oil +15%
------------
FTSE +5%
ASX +3%
Dow Jones +3%
Hang Seng +3%

Shows that Oil is a very good indicator of market direction, but it's actual impact might be overplayed in current narratives.


----------



## cynic

shouldaindex said:


> Just doing some sums for the past 3 days (plus weekend futures):
> 
> Oil +15%
> ------------
> FTSE +5%
> ASX +3%
> Dow Jones +3%
> Hang Seng +3%
> 
> Shows that Oil is a very good indicator of market direction, but it's actual impact might be overplayed in current narratives.




Well knock me down with a feather!

That's what caused the rally!!

And here I was thinking that it was all to do with strong hints of more QE from around the globe!


----------



## VSntchr

http://quantifiableedges.com/long-term-implications-of-last-weeks-breadth-thrust/

I know there's at least one well known trader here that considers breadth to be worthy of consideration.


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> http://quantifiableedges.com/long-term-implications-of-last-weeks-breadth-thrust/
> 
> I know there's at least one well known trader here that considers breadth to be worthy of consideration.




This is quite interesting as well as the ES looks to have tested the 1885 area that it broke out of last week. So if that could be considered bullish, if it holds, then the ES and US markets are postured more bullishly than the EU markets which look like they have a little more downside into NFP.

I am just guessing, but i bet that the sell the close (ES) buy the open might be working for a while, as well perhaps sell the open (DAX) buy the open (ES) trade as the two seem to diverge. Just an observation more than anything but it could be traded through the ES/FESX spread easy enough. If what I'm thinking is right, then the spread should rally when the FESX sells off, and visa versa...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Has anyone had any experience with Phillip capital Singapore? Cost, bro, speed, support etc. For futs trading and can you use their CQG connection for ninja trader?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Has anyone had any experience with Phillip capital Singapore? Cost, bro, speed, support etc. For futs trading and can you use their CQG connection for ninja trader?




I did a trial with them a while back through an association with thier Chicago office, but i was with PAT Systems for the HSI. The trial failed as the data was unreliable. I didn't try CQG but i think 58 just opened an account with them....

I know that at the time they were very keen to corner the market in Asia for index products. They had some customer service issues and office politics out of Singapore as well which p*ssed me off. 

I see no reason why CQG wouldn't work into NT though. Have you asked them for a trial? What advantages are there going though Phillip as opposed to AMP? Have you considered MacQuarie futures?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I see no reason why CQG wouldn't work into NT though. Have you asked them for a trial? What advantages are there going though Phillip as opposed to AMP? Have you considered MacQuarie futures?




They still have to open the NT port  for it to work. Simple but something they like doing!



CanOz said:


> What advantages are there going though Phillip as opposed to AMP?




Looking for a non IB HSI connection to NT




CanOz said:


> Have you considered MacQuarie futures?




No. Figured they would be rubbish....


----------



## CanOz

Well, they claim to have all the exchanges and cqg data....I have a mate that's ex propex just opened a private account with them, he's got a name of a guy that looks after him, shall I get it for you?


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> I didn't try CQG but i think 58 just opened an account with them




Still on site so I have not signed up yet. Will get it sorted in a few weeks


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just L O L at the DAX. That wasn't half telegraphed hey? stops going back over a year being singed!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Just L O L at the DAX. That wasn't half telegraphed hey? stops going back over a year being singed!




I wondered what was going on, been short the ES CFD....out now


----------



## Logique

Bears in the ascendancy in the US.  Head and Shoulders, a classic chart pattern. 

SPX 1,600 ?..ouch. That would be a long way further down.







> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...e-turmoil-in-stocks-2016-02-09?dist=afterbell
> Here’s what technical analysts are saying about the turmoil in stocks  - By Anora Mahmudova - Feb 9, 2016
> 
> Some chart watchers say a recently completed bearish pattern could portend more pain for stock investors over the short term.
> 
> These technical strategists are pointing to a so-called head-and-shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.07%   that has formed over 15 months and was completed last week....J.C. Parets, founder of money manager Eagle Bay Capital and a prominent market commentator, suggests the index could fall a further 13%, based on the S&P 500’s level of 1,847 at midday Tuesday.
> 
> “When [the pattern is] completed and confirmed, it dictates the price target. We think the *next price target is 1,600 on the S&P 500*,” he said...


----------



## sinner

My favourite pot to watch these days:



Couldn't help myself:


----------



## notting

Clearly markets are anticipating that Janet Yellen is going to come out tonight and set fire to the room, then blow herself up.


----------



## daytradeprofit

*Global markets entered to A panic what the jpy could tell us about the future....*

Global markets entered what could end up being called a true panic, much of the credit expansion of the last few years has been misallocated towards emerging markets and commodities.  The long-term thesis is that much of the global expansion of production for the last few decades has been based on an unsustainable expansion of credit. Productive economies such a Germany and China, in particular, have employed a vendor financing model where their reserves were re-lent to their customers at ever diminishing rates to consume more production. It is worth noting the state of the global banking shares, they are along with general stock markets are showing a severe crisis may now be underway. Credit default swaps for banks are rising and in particular, Deutsche Bank in Europe is now under severe pressure

From close look on the COT data usdjpy we see occurrence Surprising, Since the beginning of upward movement In 2012 the margin was more or less the same level, And now we are witnessing a fork returns, whether this heralds a return the jpy to Safe haven…….
USD/JPY has been known as a currency pair because of its close correlation with U.S. treasuries. When treasury bonds, notes and bills rise, USD/JPY prices weaken. This is a long position. The logic is that the U.S. would never default on its bond obligations, known as defensive assets, hence its safe haven status is secure.
Interest rates in both Japan and the U.S. This means that the pair is a measure of risk that determines when to buy or sell the USD/JPY, in terms of interest rates. Knowing where interest rates are heading will determine the direction of this pair 

U.S. stock markets, treasury bonds and the USD/JPY also have inverse relationships. When stock markets rise, bond prices fall, yields rise and the USD/JPY should be sold because investors are more willing to trade risky assets. Stocks are viewed as risky assets and not backed by a government with the ability to turn if fear grips the market. Liquidity here takes on risk rather than the safe status of treasuries.
Changes in correlations may occur for many reasons, U.S. issues more debt by sales of treasury bonds and adds money to the system - if U.S. buys back treasury bonds and adds money to the system ….. . Recessionary times are quite different. What if the U.S. dollar and the yen are both in a downtrend?
The traditional correlative points are: bonds up; USD/JPY up; USD down; yields down and stock markets up.
From looking at the charts we can see the relationship between index and currency (sp500 vs usd/jpy ) We can see something interesting: while the usdjpy went up 106 level to 123 the sp500 didn’t made the same move, was traded between 1815 to 2130 price levels
What we can conclude from this break down the 1815 area at the sp500 could send the usdjpy down easily to 106 area, correlation between the two staying at 114.80 usdjpy 1815 sp500
Bearish on the dollar
The markets have factored in further FRB rate hikes, but there are doubts about the figure of four hikes within 2016.Amid a lingering sense that further easing by the BOJ is approaching its limits, the dollar/yen pair’s movements are marked by a sense of fulfilment in relation to Japanese-U.S. interest-rate differentials. The dollar is expected to slide as real-demand investors build up hedges and speculators close out their dollar positions
The dollar/yen pair’s rise is likely to be kept in check by risk-evasive yen buying on the long-standing bearishness of crude oil prices; concerns about a Chinese economic slowdown; and ongoing concerns about geopolitical risk, with several regions across the globe at risk of terrorism. The next U.S. rate cut is likely to take a place from March or later, so the dollar is not expected to appreciate much on the back of rising U.S. interest rates
Bullish on the dollar
The theme will remain the pace of U.S. rate hikes. There is a gap between the forecasts of FOMC members and market participants when it comes to the pace of rate hikes, so the dollar/yen pair is likely to search for a sense of direction this month while taking on board the U.S. employment results and other data
http://www.*********************/


----------



## sinner

Repeat of Aug '15 again in EURUSD, panic in the market = Euro goes up. Somehow trading at 1.13 handle from a 1.09 handle at the start of Feb while the S&P500 cash trading at 1815 from 1940 at start of Feb.


----------



## Trembling Hand

hahah Remember the good old days when a selling point for Forex was it was too bid to be manipulated....




Yen takes a hit on rumours of BOJ intervention.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> hahah Remember the good old days when a selling point for Forex was it was too bid to be manipulated....
> 
> Yen takes a hit on rumours of BOJ intervention.




It doesn't seem that long ago that BoJ intervention was the laughing stock of FX land and always good for a fade! 

USDJPY order book on the ECNs used to be often one of the thickest with billions on either side.

No surprise that USDJPY book got a lot thinner around 2011/2 when the BoJ finally started to get their way. I am sure the EURCHF fiasco mark 1 in 2011 also helped convince a lot of traders to get out of the way of CBs determined to bork their local currency.


----------



## skyQuake

Anyone else think the yen move was a bit dodgy today? Public holiday in Japan so they decided to do a run on some stops is my guess


----------



## sinner

skyQuake said:


> Anyone else think the yen move was a bit dodgy today? Public holiday in Japan so they decided to do a run on some stops is my guess




Alternative hypothesis is that because it was a public holiday, the market was mostly robots, the chart looks funny when there's no humans to fleece? :


----------



## sinner

Last night Rate of Change plots compared to recent history:

VIX:



TIP/IEF ratio:



JNK/IEF ratio:



(h/t stockcharts.com)


----------



## Wysiwyg

Looks like DOW futures are going to fall over.


----------



## sinner

Wysiwyg said:


> Looks like DOW futures are going to fall over.




Not sure what inspired this post, maybe a chart next time, especially after I showed a considerable short term narrowing of credit problems and hefty drops in vol...


----------



## notting

I was surprised that the markets completely ignored the plunge Shanghai stocks on Thursday.
Up until that point it seemed to be what was also weighing on oil until the Russians started blowing rainbows.
Seems like people are not ignoring it today though.


----------



## sinner

Beware the Ides of March, Eurodollar COT commercials positioning lagged by 1 year is starting to top out.

US equity index highs sometime between early next week until a week after, followed by a move lower into April 20th or so.

For the bulls following this metric, potential good news as looks like could be a sustained move upwards from late April until mid August 2016.

Can read about the metric here (older posts linked at the bottom of the post), Mr McClellan has had a pretty good track record of market timing thanks to this metric:
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...llar_cot_says_ugly_drop_is_still_ahead_of_us/

Can catch the relevant COT chart with a quick google.


----------



## shouldaindex

Is it odd that bad economic news regarding Non-Farm Payroll will be the more favourable to the U.S Market?

IE. Markets are prioritising interest rates over the actual health of the economy.


----------



## fraa

Nope he threw in the towel


https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/eurodollar_cot_throws_a_curveball/




sinner said:


> Beware the Ides of March, Eurodollar COT commercials positioning lagged by 1 year is starting to top out.
> 
> US equity index highs sometime between early next week until a week after, followed by a move lower into April 20th or so.
> 
> For the bulls following this metric, potential good news as looks like could be a sustained move upwards from late April until mid August 2016.
> 
> Can read about the metric here (older posts linked at the bottom of the post), Mr McClellan has had a pretty good track record of market timing thanks to this metric:
> http://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...llar_cot_says_ugly_drop_is_still_ahead_of_us/
> 
> Can catch the relevant COT chart with a quick google.


----------



## Modest

US Fed 'Emergency' Meeting today

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20160411advexp.htm


----------



## cynic

Modest said:


> US Fed 'Emergency' Meeting today
> 
> https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20160411advexp.htm




Could it be that their economy hadn't actually recovered sufficiently to absorb the impact of even the tiniest of rate rises?


----------



## Modest

> 10:44 ET - US oil prices rise above their 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-2014 in a key bullish technical signal amid an unconfirmed report that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached an agreement on a production freeze.




CL went bid hard...What's the saying... Buy the rumor sell the news? Hehe


----------



## skc

Modest said:


> CL went bid hard...What's the saying... Buy the rumor sell the news? Hehe




Big Doha meeting coming up this weekend. It would be a semi miracle if anything can be agreed at that meeting... and even if agreement was struck, my guess is that the world will be skeptical on whether those agreements would be followed.

There's a bit of divergence between oil stocks (in Australia anyway, I haven't looked elsewhere) and spot oil movements of late which is quite unusual. May be an arb between the two into the weekend would be fun.


----------



## Joules MM1

breadth via $NYAD and $BPSPX still reads v healthy
but mother trin sez youre eating too fast...buying needs to be kept at ARMS length





no pun = no fun, ok


----------



## CanOz

These guys are unreal, hows this gonna end?



> The Tokyo Whale Is Quietly Buying Up Huge Stakes in Japan Inc.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> These guys are unreal, hows this gonna end?




more videos on shorting jgb's or govt debt.... http://www.shortjapandebt.com/#welcome

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE5ohHO7t0g

when the punchline is "soon" or "it's unhealthy" head for another channel
if soon and it's unhealthy are the extent of the analysis.....meh... :bekloppt:


----------



## kid hustlr

High range High volume day.

Guys front running sell in May and go away?

markets love to prove people wrong might be heading higher ??!!!


----------



## CanOz

Massive volume on the ES, huge open interest on the Vix (this contract has an ETH element now) and its hit support....plus its month end and Japanese have stopped adding to the punch bowl. Oh, the Chinese have stepped in to curb speculating in the commodity markets as well....plenty of themes


----------



## Wysiwyg

Looks like America is letting go but as we all know tops/distribution can take awhile. That's an each way bet.


----------



## Quant

Wysiwyg said:


> Looks like America is letting go but as we all know tops/distribution can take awhile. That's an each way bet.





First chink in Bull armour this week with SPX weekly LH/LL and looking like close under last weeks low , Been waiting on this for weeks . The lowest dynamic 5 day range of year this week was a big tell at 24 points , managed to short a few at top of range on that day , taken most of but leaving some to run next week   

edit as above not calling a top but today leaves unfilled bearish cash gap , the first box to tick of at tops , "If" we leave a second gap monday confidence grows


----------



## kid hustlr

Is the ftse closed today?


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> These guys are unreal, hows this gonna end?




Who would of thought, the logical extension of capitalism is the morphing into socialism.


----------



## captain black

kid hustlr said:


> Is the ftse closed today?




May Day in the UK today.


----------



## Joules MM1

Australian entrepreneur Craig Wright has publicly identified himself as Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36168863

#classic


----------



## Joules MM1

stuff found on the hint-a-web

http://www.optionstrategist.com/blo...394569658&mc_cid=88e0ade73d&mc_eid=c5d2a13444



> A couple of weeks ago, we mentioned that the highest “stocks only” breadth oscillator reading in history had taken place.  In fact, the top three readings of all time occurred on March 3rd, 4th, and 7th of this month (March, 2016).  In addition, the 15th and 17th most extreme readings of all time occurred on March 2nd and March 11th, respectively.  We wanted to study the other extreme readings to see what happened after those.  Is this a significant longer-term indicator, or is it just indicative of the fact that short-term momentum is strong?  The complete "Top 20" is shown in Table 1.


----------



## Joules MM1

can i get a little "boom" ?

Joules MM1
2016-May-03 14:29:17
	just bought some xjo longs at 5269's
Joules MM1
2016-May-03 14:28:36
	silver being the exception, probably.....industrial metal in good demand at the mo
Joules MM1
2016-May-03 14:28:02
	suspect gold will also continue with downward pause it started yesterday .......aussie rate cut impies more deflation....more deflation means less demand for PM's
Joules MM1
2016-May-03 14:27:08
	if no rate cut watch fins go down like a stone
Joules MM1
2016-May-03 14:26:32
	$XXJ is currently +1.4% .....rate cuts means more borrowing, means more income for fins ...is my guess
Joules MM1
2016-May-03 14:25:38
	finanacials are 1.7% ish .......i think that shows players keen on rate cut and theyre buying the bank fear
hondy
2016-May-03 13:52:40
	be nice wouldnt it
Joules MM1
2016-May-03 14:22:24
	i'm thinking rate cut and xjo shoots up 35 points



https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat


----------



## CanOz

Well done Joules, i'm not familiar with the liquidity of the SPI during rate announcements, especially ones like this, so i stayed out of my live account!


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> i'm not familiar with the liquidity of the SPI during rate announcements, especially ones like this...




yeah, you know, at 81% STO's combined cfd's in the front month contract you know they were wheezing for a squeezing at the least and the recent smack down and sentiment of the fins with todays purchases tells you who was best dressed


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> yeah, you know, at 81% STO's combined cfd's in the front month contract you know they were wheezing for a squeezing at the least and the recent smack down and sentiment of the fins with todays purchases tells you who was best dressed




I said to the missus on Friday that a rate cut wasn't priced into the AUD, today the SPI was already at 2x its daily range, but still it wasn't that excited about it....more on ANZ news.

Anyway, its a start, but got to get more practice...i can see some situations meriting some risk on RBA day...

Here's the RBA statement


----------



## CanOz

5400 is the next target for the SPI, top of the channel....5403


----------



## Joules MM1

both honkers and yonkers in (swing?)sell mode puting drag on locals



small divergences going into price highs for $SPX and $SML via $NYAD/$BPSPX (stockcharts.com)
current pullback looks inline with rotation within an uptrend if viewed thru the breadth lens

$TRIN 10sma has shot upto 1.19, in the hitting zone for bids to step in already

speaking of hitting zone: may the 4th be with ! https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/727722422074478592


----------



## Joules MM1

nice picture

dollar-weighted put/call ratio (the amount of dosh spent on puts and/or calls, not the contract sizes)





bulls would be happy to see that

edit: the above image is from Fari Hamzei, for fridays $spx


----------



## notting

What was different about the fall in US equities last night?

The fell on bad fundamental news.  Up until now since the GFC markets have been loving the bad news! 

Game Changer


----------



## Wysiwyg

notting said:


> What was different about the fall in US equities last night?
> 
> The fell on bad fundamental news.  Up until now since the GFC markets have been loving the bad news!
> 
> Game Changer



 Regarding TA, a reversal pattern (I hate this one myself) head and shoulders is forming but (and a big butt) I have seen these things become corrections just as easily with the neckline as support. Alternatively again one last run up before falling away. Take your pick.


----------



## Modest

Investors dump stocks at fastest rate since August 2011 - BAML


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets-flows-idUKKCN0Y40V0


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Don't quite understand this German holiday, still getting eurostoxx futs data but not dax? Weird.


----------



## Modest

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Don't quite understand this German holiday, still getting eurostoxx futs data but not dax? Weird.




Yeah most of Europe on holiday... Slow ass day. No trading for me. 

Anyone hear about the mini flash crash in Hong Kong?







http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-roils-china-h-shares-as-futures-volume-soars


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> Yeah most of Europe on holiday... Slow ass day. No trading for me.
> 
> Anyone hear about the mini flash crash in Hong Kong?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-roils-china-h-shares-as-futures-volume-soars




Struth, that's the H shares....170 odd point move in minutes....


----------



## ggkfc

not sure but im starting to feel uneasy with the market.. little blips here and there.. foreboding something ominous


----------



## Modest

Soros Fund Management doubles bet against S&P 500

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/17/soros-fund-management-doubles-bet-against-the-sp-500-in-1st-qtr.html


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> Soros Fund Management doubles bet against S&P 500
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/17/soros-fund-management-doubles-bet-against-the-sp-500-in-1st-qtr.html




Poor fella, needs a bra for his eye bags....


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> Poor fella, needs a bra for his eye bags....



Evidence shows that skin moves toward the ground as the body ages. Poor bloke is 85 so it is more evident.


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> Poor fella, needs a bra for his eye bags....



Mind you, Bill Evans from the Westpac bank, who comments on Sky Business, should invest in match sticks to prop his eyelids up.


----------



## CanOz

Wysiwyg said:


> Mind you, Bill Evans from the Westpac bank, who comments on Sky Business, should invest in match sticks to prop his eyelids up.




Must be from too much screen time


----------



## Modest

ES Below 2036 before cash open... This looks nasty (plunge imminent?)


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> ES Below 2036 before cash open... This looks nasty (plunge imminent?)








balance


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 66729
> 
> 
> balance




Text book Minwa trade!

Very nice... I took a long in FESX approx the same time as you. 

EDIT: Is that tonight?


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Text book Minwa trade!
> 
> Very nice... I took a long in FESX approx the same time as you.
> 
> EDIT: Is that tonight?




yep, current BTO pos

take a gander at this bias positional summary


----------



## Joules MM1

extra vix vapo rub even on a current upday




freshly squeezed $SPX ......$RUT, $SML and $NDX high betas still signal rubbish leadership with daily  LH's


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> yep, current BTO pos
> 
> take a gander at this bias positional summary
> View attachment 66730




I will be honest, I don't know how to read that sentiment indicator. Is the IG Markets sentiment indicator useful/okay to use? I check it every now and then...


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> I will be honest, I don't know how to read that sentiment indicator. Is the IG Markets sentiment indicator useful/okay to use? I check it every now and then...




just shows extreme bias and tendency for retail to get trapped or whipped.....the IG is prob similar basis.....

liking this one at the moment for quick view on sev diff times even tho lags:

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx


----------



## Modest

IG Reading US 500 70% Short

Would you consider that an extreme bias? Worthy of a squeeze? 

Cos it looks like that's exactly what is happening.


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> IG Reading US 500 70% Short
> 
> Would you consider that an extreme bias? Worthy of a squeeze?
> 
> Cos it looks like that's exactly what is happening.




absolute!

actually the reading on spx cfd via cmc has been above 90% past few days 

when it gets that high and you see it pullback then that's the most likely time you'll get a squeez when the capitalutaion to the opposite direction occurs


----------



## Joules MM1

indexes at a (almost an altime) high and more than 90% are short .....yeah, right.....squeez me tight baby


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> indexes at a (almost an altime) high and more than 90% are short .....yeah, right.....squeez me tight baby



Squeeze em til their margins pop.

Nobody on the other side of those contracts?!

And here I was thinking it was a zero sum game!


----------



## Joules MM1

futes at the mo aest

:1zhelp: said the bishop to the actress
	

		
			
		

		
	




http://finviz.com/futures.ashx


----------



## Joules MM1

A-vix locally, some writings on some walls for some time




http://www.asx.com.au/products/sp-asx200-vix-index.htm


----------



## Wysiwyg

Not jumping your posts (if you thought that) but simply adding to the threads. Anyway some past obs. on the ASXVix. Post GFC anomaly, the average for our Vix is around *16*. This linear regression overlay starts at the uptrend in July 2014 with a 2 and a 5 standard deviation. Bit Harry Hindsight but sought of shows the past limits.


----------



## Joules MM1

Wysiwyg said:


> Not jumping your posts (if you thought that) but simply adding to the threads. Anyway some past obs. on the ASXVix. Post GFC anomaly, the average for our Vix is around *16*. This linear regression overlay starts at the uptrend in July 2014 with a 2 and a 5 standard deviation. Bit Harry Hindsight but sought of shows the past limits.
> 
> View attachment 66745




cheers, Wysiwyg

ample room to move upside there eh


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Did I miss something? Tom Petty put on a trade?


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Did I miss something? Tom Petty put on a trade?
> 
> View attachment 66747




DAX on DAX off.

Does it need a reason! Just DAX it!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

cynic said:


> DAX on DAX off.
> 
> Does it need a reason! Just DAX it!


----------



## Modest

cynic said:


> DAX on DAX off.
> 
> Does it need a reason! Just DAX it!




All aboard!


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> indexes at a (almost an altime) high and more than 90% are short .....yeah, right.....squeez me tight baby




Joules what is your read on this? 






I am thinking this increases the probability of a shake out occurring (before a continuation up)...To get a shakeout we're going to need a sell off in GC.

Typically (from my limited experience) when GC is selling indexes are rising, so I'm thinking to fade the first rally I see in the indexes (FESX) tonight.


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Joules what is your read on this?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am thinking this increases the probability of a shake out occurring (before a continuation up)...To get a shakeout we're going to need a sell off in GC.
> 
> Typically (from my limited experience) when GC is selling indexes are rising, so I'm thinking to fade the first rally I see in the indexes (FESX) tonight.




def a continuation of the current sell phase .....one big retracement....retail are uber bully 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=12971&page=18&p=907209&viewfull=1#post907209 culprit


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> def a continuation of the current sell phase .....one big retracement....retail are uber bully




How do you take into account time in your analysis of sentiment. For instance you notice retailers 'extremely' bullish....

Is it more of a clue over longer term time frames or can you use sentiment intraday? 

Thanks


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> How do you take into account time in your analysis of sentiment. For instance you notice retailers 'extremely' bullish....
> 
> Is it more of a clue over longer term time frames or can you use sentiment intraday?
> 
> Thanks




think how traps get set, whether by intent or extreme of liquidity drying up, so must move in the opposite direction 
...sells side dries up over a small period of time then price travels ....then diff players rip into the game for short periods of time to get the disparity that weak shorts practise

retail is likely to join at the end of a swing...doesnt mean the arent going down just not in the timeframe everyones hangin out for....


----------



## Joules MM1

and  gooooo dax


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> How do you take into account time in your analysis of sentiment. For instance you notice retailers 'extremely' bullish....
> 
> Is it more of a clue over longer term time frames or can you use sentiment intraday?
> 
> Thanks




think about how many accounts might make those %'s tho ....if there's only half a doz at play then it looks special so can be deceiving but of the % fits where price is in a larger swing you can get a sense of where people are emotively logic

anecdotal guesstimation at best, still, if you see the same numbers in the same patterns then youre seeing a pattern of its own


----------



## Modest

Thanks Joules!


----------



## Joules MM1

trap set n munch

shorts get smashed #dax #spx #xjo


----------



## peter2

What, another bear trap, false break, "wash and rinse", nick reversal!  

Do you think that pattern could have an edge for a prepared, disciplined trader?


----------



## cynic

So DAX , tell me what motivated this sudden change in attitude after such a decisive downward plunge?

DAX typically replies:"Because I could! Do I need any other reason?"


----------



## Modest

cynic said:


> So DAX , tell me what motivated this sudden change in attitude after such a decisive downward plunge?
> 
> DAX typically replies:"Because I could! Do I need any other reason?"




WallMart beating earning expectations ?


----------



## cynic

Modest said:


> WallMart beating earning expectations ?




Yesh that too!


----------



## Wysiwyg

peter2 said:


> Do you think that pattern could have an edge for a prepared, disciplined trader?




Only if it happens.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> What, another bear trap, false break, "wash and rinse", nick reversal!
> 
> Do you think that pattern could have an edge for a prepared, disciplined trader?




maybe ....this one was a good one 




res 9902 front month


----------



## cynic

peter2 said:


> What, another bear trap, false break, "wash and rinse", nick reversal!
> 
> Do you think that pattern could have an edge for a prepared, disciplined trader?




Are you contemplating joining the ranks of DAX traders?

In addition to preparation and discipline, lunacy can also be helpful when riding the Daemonic bourse. Golden RR ratios tend to hit the fan very quickly once that beastie starts to dance.


----------



## Joules MM1

crunchy apple




US cash about to open .....jack be nimble


----------



## peter2

> Are you contemplating joining the ranks of DAX traders?




No. I trade these nick reversals and get alerts when price trades across the previous days high and low in eight markets. The DAX has reversed after hitting the PDL in both the last two days. Both opportunities provided acceptable RR results. 

ES and CL produced the same pattern latter in the US session.


----------



## kid hustlr

Is something out?? what's going on?


----------



## Modest

> YouGov ‏@YouGov  12m minutes ago
> EU referendum bombshell data coming soon...





https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/733585189427810304


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Is something out?? what's going on?




At a guess the G7 meeting combined with a triple witching.


----------



## kid hustlr

Stitch up I had a wonderful short well int he money and got tagged nicely. Now spite sold it at a much worse price for small size out of anger.

Not happy.


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Stitch up I had a wonderful short well int he money and got tagged nicely. Now spite sold it at a much worse price for small size out of anger.
> 
> Not happy.



As I wasn't on the winning side of your short trades, you have my sympathy.

The market doth giveth and snatcheth away again and does so far more often than one might prefer.


----------



## kid hustlr

Not sure if it's the nature of the market at the moment but I seem to have my stop taken a lot and then have the trade go my way. Anyone else experiencing this or am i just horrid?

Perhaps its the nature of the current market - choppy price action, looking for longer term winners might be an error - i should be taking 10-15 point winners rather than reaching for 30's and 40's and also be more patient when entering trades, god knows im getting the opportunities.


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Not sure if it's the nature of the market at the moment but I seem to have my stop taken a lot and then have the trade go my way. Anyone else experiencing this or am i just horrid?




I don't know whether this is applicable to yourself, but it is a disturbingly common experience for those trading OTC derivative products where the broker/provider is the counterparty.


----------



## fiftyeight

I switched back to CFDs due to reduced funds while building.

When stopped out on a fut to the tick or 2 its super frustrating but it happens.

CFDs it just feels much more sinister. Was that legit or did I just get fu...?


----------



## kid hustlr

I'm trading the real thing. Still on the learning curve I think. Left a huge amount of open profit on the table the last fortnight.

Wait for retests, stop looking for home runs etc etc


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> I switched back to CFDs due to reduced funds while building.
> 
> When stopped out on a fut to the tick or 2 its super frustrating but it happens.
> 
> CFDs it just feels much more sinister. Was that legit or did I just get fu...?



One can anticipate trades failing with that spooky degree of precision every now and then.

When it starts happening to every second or third trade, then it seems pretty clear that somebody (presumably the counterparty) is profitting by targetting the stops.


----------



## Wysiwyg

kid hustlr said:


> Wait for retests, stop looking for home runs etc etc



That has been my greatest shortcoming. Holding for the longer move that doesn't eventuate. Well, not while you're holding on anyway. The game "they" play is no obvious moves and shake holders out before the larger move. If they know you know it is different again. :bad: One option is to take half or more off and close the rest at a pattern or trend breakdown or trail price with a stop exit. No prisoners.


----------



## Joules MM1

and this

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...24462&page=196&p=907218&viewfull=1#post907218
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...24462&page=196&p=907115&viewfull=1#post907115


----------



## kid hustlr

J,

You talk in native speak either on purpose or not I'm not sure. That being said I hear you and your point on this occasion and came to the same conclusions at 6am this morning.

The concern now is she adjusts again to a different beast and I don't adapt, looking to play last weeks game in this weeks tournament.


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> J,
> 
> You talk in native speak either on purpose or not I'm not sure. That being said I hear you and your point on this occasion and came to the same conclusions at 6am this morning.
> 
> The concern now is she adjusts again to a different beast and I don't adapt, looking to play last weeks game in this weeks tournament.




the challenge i find, largest, is reading the context of some moves to tell me if there is a decent shift is at hand, typically the lens is volatitility thru options, as a first hint, that in the immediate session ahead traders "seeing" and adjusting to liquidity needs, meanwhile there is a fundamental shakeup in commodities going on, while  many(i included) expected more of the same in deflationary terms, there is clearly a buy-side liquidity move into commodities, there is clearly an uptick in equity/index volatility, typical expanding price with, typically catching most players in a dream-state of old price swings....typically i get caught in a cupla traps and snap out of my dream-state to ask the correct questions about how liquidity is travelling and refocus on what needs to be done......generally speaking ....at the same time, as i've placed in this thread, retail has had an extreme sell bias seen thru the cfd lens in the region of 80 to 90% sell positions, so did i expect the swings to be wider, yup, do retail get trapped selling way too early, yep, buying rebounds way too late, yup...

context and relative size ....everyone gets comfortable to some extent in yesterdays context and relative price sizes


and sometimes i get lost on the etiquette of chat sites


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> and this
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...24462&page=196&p=907218&viewfull=1#post907218
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...24462&page=196&p=907115&viewfull=1#post907115
> 
> View attachment 66773




This is really valid, one can avoid this chop with a bigger account and just trading value....


----------



## kid hustlr

No need for etiquette we are all numbers in the screen. The value of those numbers to me just vary (you and TH on one end GB on the other).

Your musings here like often do little but confuse me though, yes there's plenty going on across the globe driving forces but for me most don't matter, we're trying to buy high and sell low intraday and all I care about is what's working in the now. 

I'm confident my plan and style is fine it's just understanding how that style operates in different conditions which is the key. There's a level of manoeuvrability which is required.

I see my old posts in the ftse thread and laugh how far away I was. I guess that's the 10000 hours thing. Like the market itself im cautiously bullish my ability


----------



## Wysiwyg

Joules MM1 said:


> context and relative size ....everyone gets comfortable to some extent in yesterdays context and relative price sizes



I notice the CBOE Vix has been in a tight range of 5 points for a few months now with no real sign of a break out in volatility yet. Will be looking for that break out and post it up here for viewers in the future.


----------



## Wysiwyg

In a longer term view I could take a guess at comparatively stable conditions for some time but knowing that predicting the future is not possible, I won't guess at all..


----------



## fiftyeight

Joules MM1 said:


> ]
> 
> View attachment 66773




Great illustration of key point I am trying to work on atm


I also find your posts very interesting but often I am not quite sure what I am looking at or reading haha


----------



## Modest

2nd photo looks like a classic distribution pattern (to me  )


----------



## kid hustlr

Was long that FTSE twice and couldn't hold on then she rips like that. Net even for the night hate to think what happens when I'm trading the wrong direction


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Was long that FTSE twice and couldn't hold on then she rips like that. Net even for the night hate to think what happens when I'm trading the wrong direction




Is there a right or wrong direction? It seems there are small opportunities for both directions at present.


----------



## Userman

New Carolin Gold - News - Completes Private Placements

LAD-TSX.V



Completes Private Placements



May 19, 2016 -- New Carolin Gold Corp. (the "Company" or "New Carolin") (TSXV: LAD): Further to its news release of April 18, 2016, the Company is pleased to announce that it has completed its two concurrent non-brokered private placements of units totalling 14,690,000 units in the capital of the Company for gross proceeds of $1,028,300.

The proceeds from the offering will be used for exploration on the Company's Ladner Gold project and for general working capital and corporate purposes.


About New Carolin Gold Corp.

New Carolin Gold is a Canadian-based junior company focused on the exploration, evaluation and development of our strategic 144 square kilometers of contiguous mineral claims, collectively known as the Ladner Gold Project. The project is located near Hope, BC, in the prospective and under-explored Coquihalla Gold Belt, which is host to several historic small gold producers including the Carolin Mine, Emancipation Mine, Pipestem Mine and numerous gold prospects.


Mr. Robert Thast CEO Video http://www.newcarolingold.com/blank-page/

For additional information, please visit the Company's website at www.newcarolingold.com.


----------



## kid hustlr

cynic said:


> Is there a right or wrong direction? It seems there are small opportunities for both directions at present.




Agreed.

It's actually a pretty good market at present in my view


----------



## CanOz

Composite profiles for the FTSE, ES, SPI, and FESX


----------



## kid hustlr

I feel like good traders are on the right side of these consolidation break outs more often than not. For me right now I have no idea which way its going to break


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> I feel like good traders are on the right side of these consolidation break outs more often than not. For me right now I have no idea which way its going to break




I wonder how many take the retest instead of the break though? It seems you take less heat on retest....


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> I wonder how many take the retest instead of the break though? It seems you take less heat on retest....




Yeah fair point and that's my 'plan'. The good ones don't test though


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah fair point and that's my 'plan'. The good ones don't test though



 well I reckon they do, but it's a lift in a couple levels of the offer or a few bids hit, not a few candles on a 1 minute


----------



## Joules MM1

shorts just got told to shut the front door


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> shorts just got told to shut the front door




And today's price action is proudly brought to you by the letters "W", "T" and "F"


----------



## Wysiwyg

cynic said:


> And today's price action is proudly brought to you by the letters "W", "T" and "F"



Obligatory one last short squeeze before falling away is seen often on topping patterns and makes the H&S pattern a lot. The fake breakdown of neck support (bear trap) was noted the other day. It's a hell of a manoeuvre and you would think traders are aware that this does happen. Even this short squeeze could turn into a rally to new highs. Mr. Market isn't a nice person if you tell it what you want to happen next. It seems to have a strong dislike of in too soon.


----------



## PennD

Wysiwyg said:


> Obligatory one last short squeeze before falling away is seen often on topping patterns and makes the H&S pattern a lot. The fake breakdown of neck support (bear trap) was noted the other day. It's a hell of a manoeuvre and you would think traders are aware that this does happen. Even this short squeeze could turn into a rally to new highs. Mr. Market isn't a nice person if you tell it what you want to happen next. It seems to have a strong dislike of in too soon.




Even my dog and my aunties Budgie were talking about the head and shoulders on the s&p. Was never going to happen. I mentioned it last week when I said to start soaking your keyboard I'm not trying to be a smarty here but we need to learn to fade the obvious.


----------



## CanOz

PennD said:


> Even my dog and my aunties Budgie were talking about the head and shoulders on the s&p. Was never going to happen. I mentioned it last week when I said to start soaking your keyboard I'm not trying to be a smarty here but we need to learn to fade the obvious.




Lol...it was pretty obvious. Still, it seems a hard trade to take yet has the best risk reward. I tried fading the spi yesterday into 5300, not exactly sure yet but I think I was stopped out by a tick.....cfd.


----------



## CanOz

Yup, tried to fade that move into 5300 with a coupla Aussie 200 micros, stopped out by one tick, lol...my bad, should have had a wider stop.


----------



## PennD

CanOz said:


> Yup, tried to fade that move into 5300 with a coupla Aussie 200 micros, stopped out by one tick, lol...my bad, should have had a wider stop.



There is an art in stop placement on its own. Tight stops and re enter, or wider stops and let it sort itself out. I've had success and losses with both. Still not sure whsts right for me but sticking with the first one gor now. Less damage if im wrong.


----------



## CanOz

PennD said:


> There is an art in stop placement on its own. Tight stops and re enter, or wider stops and let it sort itself out. I've had success and losses with both. Still not sure whsts right for me but sticking with the first one gor now. Less damage if im wrong.




True and lately i've been giving things a wide berth with a 24 period ATR on an hourly and also considering the average daily range...not sure why i didn't this time! The ATR was at 13.4 and i used a 10 tick stop. I was in a hurry to get to an appointment and clearly didn't apply my initial stop properly. In this case i would have been still in the trade.


----------



## PennD

CanOz said:


> True and lately i've been giving things a wide berth with a 24 period ATR on an hourly and also considering the average daily range...not sure why i didn't this time! The ATR was at 13.4 and i used a 10 tick stop. I was in a hurry to get to an appointment and clearly didn't apply my initial stop properly. In this case i would have been still in the trade.




Bummer!!


----------



## fiftyeight

Will it break out? 

Will I be at the screen to see this break out?

Will I fade this breakout?


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Will it break out?
> 
> Will I be at the screen to see this break out?
> 
> Will I fade this breakout?
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 66823




I've got an order in to fade it....


----------



## CanOz

Posted this in the XAO banter thread but it really belongs here....i determine the trends by just a glance at the charts, but if i need to get picky i use averages.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Will it break out?
> 
> Will I be at the screen to see this break out?
> 
> Will I fade this breakout?
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 66823




Fade CL as well?


----------



## CanOz

interesting how much momentum the DX has now....roll on 96.5


----------



## cynic

PennD said:


> There is an art in stop placement on its own. Tight stops and re enter, or wider stops and let it sort itself out. I've had success and losses with both. Still not sure whsts right for me but sticking with the first one gor now. Less damage if im wrong.




There sure is an art to it! Non DMA CFDs and stops are quite simply not a good mix!


----------



## Joules MM1

cynic said:


> There sure is an art to it! Non DMA CFDs and stops are quite simply not a good mix!




that's an all-knowing all-seeing confident comment

......care to expand ?


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> that's an all-knowing all-seeing confident comment
> 
> ......care to expand ?




I grant that I didn't examine the specifics of the recent example reported in this thread, so I cannot say with certainty that the stop was nefariously exploited on that occasion. However, my years of experience of trading OTC CFDs, have taught me exactly what to expect when using stop orders with such products.

If somebody is somehow managing to enjoy the protection, afforded by stops, without having them precisely triggered more often than seems probable, then I, for one, will be genuinely surprised!


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> Fade CL as well?




I did pretty well on the run down  leading up to xmas but I generally don't look at it.

It is on my ever growing to do list.


----------



## Modest

Banking Holidays for UK and USA this coming Monday. I won't be looking for shorts until Friday going into the long weekend.


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Banking Holidays for UK and USA this coming Monday. I won't be looking for shorts until Friday going into the long weekend.




am thinking, bullish bias most long weekends....that would translate to swing risk for open longs on wednesday ?

have you done a history on long weekends during strong upswings, M ?


----------



## Joules MM1

oil is the last commod of signif (to me) to make a retracement of the current up-phase... with metals





and this


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> have you done a history on long weekends during strong upswings, M ?




Yeah good point... No I haven't - I'll shut up now.


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> Yeah good point... No I haven't - I'll shut up now.




Highs and lows for the week are more often than not on a Monday or Friday....fwiw


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> No I haven't




keep at it....and _keep at it_ 

let us know what you discover, yes, i know, there's a  plethora of waffle about cyclicality and stuff, still, tendencies of people and liquidity are what they are


----------



## Modest

Joules MM1 said:


> keep at it....and _keep at it_
> 
> let us know what you discover, yes, i know, there's a  plethora of waffle about cyclicality and stuff, still, tendencies of people and liquidity are what they are




Hey Joules, 

What do you make of this:






That is extreme to me (% Short for Wall St and US 500). 

I am going to keep an eye on this to see what happens to the price structure when short % above goes back to around 50% - this would indicate that most shorts have been squeezed out and maybe a drive back down may be likely?


----------



## Joules MM1

Modest said:


> Hey Joules,
> 
> What do you make of this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That is extreme to me (% Short for Wall St and US 500).
> 
> I am going to keep an eye on this to see what happens to the price structure when short % above goes back to around 50% - this would indicate that most shorts have been squeezed out and maybe a drive back down may be likely?




reckon mate

https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat
(cmc)


> Joules MM1
> 2016-May-25 04:48:34
> and off course 80% BTO for gold cfd ....rofl
> Joules MM1
> 2016-May-25 04:47:50
> killem, Skip
> Joules MM1
> 2016-May-25 04:47:43
> and 78% for all accounts STO A200 ($XJO)
> Joules MM1
> 2016-May-25 04:46:51
> $SPX cfd for the front month contract shows a whopping 93% in STO positions......wow.......mass squeez operation


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> Highs and lows for the week are more often than not on a Monday or Friday....fwiw




I have been thinking about this.

Are highs and lows more likely on a Monday or Friday or are they more likely at the start and end of any 5 day period. The test would have to eliminate this, possibly by testing all 5 day periods.

Just had a look at TH's old blog as he ran this on the HSI, does not look like he tested for this. Someone in the comments had a similar thought but there is no reply


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> I have been thinking about this.
> 
> Are highs and lows more likely on a Monday or Friday or are they more likely at the start and end of any 5 day period. The test would have to eliminate this, possibly by testing all 5 day periods.
> 
> Just had a look at TH's old blog as he ran this on the HSI, does not look like he tested for this. Someone in the comments had a similar thought but there is no reply




Ole Troy at Rancho likes his stats....

Most probable days of the week for highs and lows


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> Ole Troy at Rancho likes his stats....
> 
> Most probable days of the week for highs and lows




Hmmm, cannot really tell from the discription but



> I recorded which days set the high and low price for that *week*




Is there any particular reason a Monday to Friday week is important? 

I would like to see the numbers run on a 5 day period say Wednesday to Tuesday.

All we can say at the moment is that the first and last day of this 5 day period show more highs and lows

Monday and Friday may well still have more highs and lows but it may not be as significant or they may not be significant at all.

I assume I am missing something as usual haha

Next break I will get some data and have a look.

Or if anyone has the appropriate .csv file, email it to me and ill try do it at work


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> Hmmm, cannot really tell from the discription but
> 
> 
> 
> Is there any particular reason a Monday to Friday week is important?
> 
> I would like to see the numbers run on a 5 day period say Wednesday to Tuesday.
> 
> All we can say at the moment is that the first and last day of this 5 day period show more highs and lows
> 
> Monday and Friday may well still have more highs and lows but it may not be as significant or they may not be significant at all.
> 
> I assume I am missing something as usual haha
> 
> Next break I will get some data and have a look.
> 
> Or if anyone has the appropriate .csv file, email it to me and ill try do it at work




Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend, what sort of actions might those traders typically take on a friday? And those same traders on the following monday will then want to...


----------



## fiftyeight

cynic said:


> Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend, what sort of actions might those traders typically take on a friday? And those same traders on the following monday will then want to...





So if they are net long (and assuming the smart are correct the market should be trending up) and do not want to hold over the weekend they will sell on Friday sending the price down. Then would buy on Monday sending the price up. This suggests the opposite to the data we have so far. There would be a lot of selling pressure on Friday therefore it should be very similar to Thursday.

A standard week is obviously important to the psyche, so there would be case as to why Monday and Friday are significant, I am just not sure the data has conclusively shown this yet


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> So if they are net long (and assuming the smart are correct the market should be trending up) and do not want to hold over the weekend they will sell on Friday sending the price down. Then would buy on Monday sending the price up. This suggests the opposite to the data we have so far. There would be a lot of selling pressure on Friday therefore it should be very similar to Thursday.
> 
> A standard week is obviously important to the psyche, so there would be case as to why Monday and Friday are significant, I am just not sure the data has conclusively shown this yet




If it's over 80% then it's pretty conclusive. 

In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved, in bear markets people don't want to hold through the weekend....Fridays close lower. that's from Larry Williams I think...must look it up.


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> So if they are net long (and assuming the smart are correct the market should be trending up) and do not want to hold over the weekend they will sell on Friday sending the price down. Then would buy on Monday sending the price up. This suggests the opposite to the data we have so far. There would be a lot of selling pressure on Friday therefore it should be very similar to Thursday.
> 
> A standard week is obviously important to the psyche, so there would be case as to why Monday and Friday are significant, I am just not sure the data has conclusively shown this yet




I do admire your critical angle on this.

And in your bull market example, the counterparties to those net long would be...


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> If it's over 80% then it's pretty conclusive.




The numbers may not be so strong after further analysis



> In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved, in bear markets people don't want to hold through the weekend....Fridays close lower. that's from Larry Williams I think...must look it up.




The smart money moves the market? So they have been watching youtube all week and then realise **** we forgot buy. Hmmm

People not wanting to hold over the weekend in a bear market seems to make a bit more sense to me.

I expect to be wrong on this one, I am just not convince yet as I think there might be a few holes which I will look in to.


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved






cynic said:


> Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend





Hang on hang on

Can is saying in a bull market everyone is rushing to buy on a Friday. cynic is saying that traders are trying to get net flat. Surely at best this supply and demand would roughly equal out.

Additionally, if this edge was as significant and obvious would it not be traded out

Someone send me a csv file so I can figure this out, I am going round and round in my head now haha

There is a comments section on Rancho, hopefully we get a reply


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> The numbers may not be so strong after further analysis
> 
> 
> 
> The smart money moves the market? So they have been watching youtube all week and then realise **** we forgot buy. Hmmm
> 
> People not wanting to hold over the weekend in a bear market seems to make a bit more sense to me.
> 
> I expect to be wrong on this one, I am just not convince yet as I think there might be a few holes which I will look in to.






It might comfort you to know that I share some of your uncertainty and have genuine admiration for your willingness to view those statistics critically.

Are you certain it's the smart money buying the weekly high or selling the weekly low ? Sounds to me more like another kind of money operating at those extremes.


----------



## fiftyeight

cynic said:


> It might comfort you to know that I share some of your uncertainty and have genuine admiration for your willingness to view those statistics critically.
> 
> Are you certain it's the smart money buying the weekly high or selling the weekly low ? Sounds to me more like another kind of money operating at those extremes.




It definitely does help. Hopefully I will have some meaningful results soonish.

Hmmmmmm good point let me ponder this.......

First thoughts, no the smart money is not buying the weekly high in a bull market, especially if it obviously on a Friday. Then that just leaves traders trying to get flat (again assuming the big guys are correct and were long), which drives the price down.

Traders trying to get flat however may provide the smart with enough liquidity to get on large size which could change things..... maybe haha


----------



## Joules MM1

@Modest

a motley monthly manicdote at best, yeah, sure, but it's interesting if the psychology behind the print is considered

for your consideration (russian doll thing):


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved, in bear markets people don't want to hold through the weekend....Fridays close lower







cynic said:


> Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend




For both these to hold true then there should be an increased volume on Mondays and Fridays?

Rancho's relative volume should reveal this on a daily chart Can, is the relative volume increased on Mondays and Fridays?


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> For both these to hold true then there should be an increased volume on Mondays and Fridays?
> 
> Rancho's relative volume should reveal this on a daily chart Can, is the relative volume increased on Mondays and Fridays?




Rancho's study tool can give you the data we need, exported to excel. Will do once I'm in the office later!


----------



## CanOz

58 i'm going to need your email to send you the XL files. While i'm waiting i'll do a heap of studies and then zip them up ready for email....

Edit, PM sent you 58!


----------



## Wysiwyg

Must be close to a U.S. Index short sell.  The Soros Put Options bet on the S&P 500 ETF bearing fruit?


----------



## Joules MM1

stuff #oil $dx
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/theres-been-a-shift-in-the-way-global-markets-are-behaving-2016-5

“We think the relative stability in the CNY, oil price, and credit market are all sending potentially important signals which will have important implications for both the breadth and momentum of the USD rally from here,” he says.


----------



## CanOz

Great timing Joules, i was pondering this yesterday as i watched CL blaze higher with a stronger dollar...However, that said, this morning CL has popped the stops on 49.5 and the DX has broken its trendline higher, so the negative correlation looks to be coming back in style again? The USD weakness seems to be coming from JPY strength?


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> For both these to hold true then there should be an increased volume on Mondays and Fridays?
> 
> Rancho's relative volume should reveal this on a daily chart Can, is the relative volume increased on Mondays and Fridays?




Not necessarily! Have you heard about the practice of ratcheting?


----------



## fiftyeight

cynic said:


> Not necessarily! Have you heard about the practice of ratcheting?




No I have not???

OK, what I surprise I am having a few issues with looking at this, including but not limited to not having excel, not having a working network and not having any Excel skill.

Working on all 3. Will post when I do eventually have a result


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> No I have not???
> 
> OK, what I surprise I am having a few issues with looking at this, including but not limited to not having excel, not having a working network and not having any Excel skill.
> 
> Working on all 3. Will post when I do eventually have a result




It was a technique that some participants have been accused of using to manipulate price action during periods of low volume.

I only mention it, because it highlights (amongst other things) that extreme prices can, and often do, occur during periods of low volume.


----------



## fiftyeight

cynic said:


> It was a technique that some participants have been accused of using to manipulate price action during periods of low volume.
> 
> I only mention it, because it highlights (amongst other things) that extreme prices can, and often do, occur during periods of low volume.




All I can find is something relating to dilution. Will have a look tomorrow when a page might actually load in less than 5 mins.

I accept that extremes can and do often happen during low volume. But that is not what you implied. If there is a larger number of traders trying to get net flat towards the end of the week to avoid the weekend, volume should be high. This makes a very very big assumption that they are long in a bull market though....... hmmmm


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> All I can find is something relating to dilution. Will have a look tomorrow when a page might actually load in less than 5 mins.
> 
> I accept that extremes can and do often happen during low volume. But that is not what you implied. If there is a larger number of traders trying to get net flat towards the end of the week to avoid the weekend, volume should be high. This makes a very very big assumption that they are long in a bull market though....... hmmmm




I think we might be on a slightly different page here. Volume traded and number of traders don't typically correlate.

A possibility to consider (just one of many):

There are two parties to each transaction, some long, some short, some large, some small, some smart, some dumb and a deadline looming (i.e. the weekend). Some dumb shorts are desperately buying back their position, for whatever price they can get and the smart longs may well be the ones squeezing those exorbitant prices out of the dumb shorts.


----------



## fiftyeight

cynic said:


> I think we might be on a slightly different page here. Volume traded and number of traders don't typically correlate.
> 
> A possibility to consider (just one of many):
> 
> There are two parties to each transaction, some long, some short, some large, some small, some smart, some dumb and a deadline looming (i.e. the weekend). Some dumb shorts are desperately buying back their position, for whatever price they can get and the smart longs may well be the ones squeezing those exorbitant prices out of the dumb shorts.




They would be dumb shorts, apparently there is high chance Monday will put in a low :

I take what you are saying onboard and simple assumptions like it takes volume to move the market will not always stand up


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers got nice bid on

------------




Ned Davis Research ‏@NDR_Research 5m5 minutes ago

#Stocks can rise within a tightening cycle. When bond yields <4%, #equity returns positively correlated with yield.


----------



## Joules MM1

front contract on cmc shows $SPX all-clients at :1zhelp: 95% sell to open and (that's 5% long  )

HSI players backed right off their bullish stance to be just 51% longs

lemony squeezy rockets, anyone?


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> They would be dumb shorts, apparently there is high chance Monday will put in a low :
> 
> I take what you are saying onboard and simple assumptions like it takes volume to move the market will not always stand up




It is theoretically possible, that strong, weeks long trends, can produce a bias towards weekly extremes falling on mondays and fridays when measured based upon a Monday to Friday week. In an uptrend the weekly highs will fall on Friday and the lows on the Monday and vice versa in a downtrend.

Your suggestion about examining the results based upon a different starting point for the week, (i.e. wednesday to the following tuesday,  instead of monday to friday) might help to resolve the question of whether the results have been biased by the prevailing trends.


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> front contract on cmc shows $SPX all-clients at :1zhelp: 95% sell to open and (that's 5% long  )
> 
> HSI players backed right off their bullish stance to be just 51% longs
> 
> lemony squeezy rockets, anyone?
> 
> View attachment 66860




Some prefer counterparty raspberry flavour as it is so much sweeter blowing raspberries than sucking lemons.


----------



## kid hustlr

one for the intra day traders out there:

In a raging bull market does your set up and trading style change?

I'm not saying we are running into a bull But recent events have got me thinking that at some stage we will. I feel in the last 2-3 years of atleast having some exposure to intra day mkts (but no success mind you) I've seen grinds higher, consolidations and bear periods. I feel my 'playbook' atleast has some pages for each of these themes, ranging from looking for a fake out every time in a quiet mkt to sacking up and selling the first bar in strong bear. 

Traditionally I feel good sell trades rarely 'retest' and move quickly. Hard to get on and violent movements. Alternatively most (not all) bull opportunities provide some type of decent confluence to get in. Basing patterns, certain times of the day, retests etc. 

Now I'm wondering if this view is perhaps warped by the fact I haven't witness all mkt themes?

In a raging bull is it just close your eyes and buy buy buy?


----------



## fiftyeight

So this where I am at so far.

Turned out to be much more difficult than expected so I have had to get a Freelancer. 

Still having issues with that data not in the same format and still yet to run it for a different 5 or 6 day period.

Also the data includes ETH, yet to have a think about if this should be included or not or it does not matter


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> one for the intra day traders out there:
> 
> In a raging bull market does your set up and trading style change?
> 
> I'm not saying we are running into a bull But recent events have got me thinking that at some stage we will. I feel in the last 2-3 years of atleast having some exposure to intra day mkts (but no success mind you) I've seen grinds higher, consolidations and bear periods. I feel my 'playbook' atleast has some pages for each of these themes, ranging from looking for a fake out every time in a quiet mkt to sacking up and selling the first bar in strong bear.
> 
> Traditionally I feel good sell trades rarely 'retest' and move quickly. Hard to get on and violent movements. Alternatively most (not all) bull opportunities provide some type of decent confluence to get in. Basing patterns, certain times of the day, retests etc.
> 
> Now I'm wondering if this view is perhaps warped by the fact I haven't witness all mkt themes?
> 
> In a raging bull is it just close your eyes and buy buy buy?




A couple of my observations/thoughts about bull markets compared to bear markets....in Bull markets , prices move up slower because punters like to hang onto profits, where as in bear markets, prices decline swiftly as fear sets in, so the theory goes. So from my point of view 'value' as expressed by the most highly traded price should be constantly accepted higher through consolidations (Brackets) and breakouts. An aging trend should have value area grinding higher as the auction struggles to attract more bidders. I should be able to illustrate this using my TPO momentum indicator. Also, we can plot an ATR to show lowering volatility as the market accepts higher value in bull markets and higher volatility as the market searches for value lower during bear markets...

So what should we expect from intra-day price action during bull markets? I think it would mean more rotational days, narrower ranges, fewer large range extensions. Some nice short covering rallies, as well as a few good breaks as longs liquidate but some solid excess lows where lower prices are firmly rejected at the value area highs of previous brackets. 

The average daily range is shrinking in a bull market, so is the opportunity for large moves. Perhaps larger size and smaller targets should be considered, rather than smaller size and bigger targets... 

The chart shows the ATR as a measure of volatility and the TPO momentum which shows the change in the 'most agreed' price of the day, as defined by the amount of time it spends at that price, not volume.

This is a really interesting topic and the above are only my thoughts in answer to your question. I would love to be able to quantify it more. An interesting note on quantifying this type of thing, i found through extensive testing of an open range breakout system (SPI) that during bear markets the opening 5-10 minute range could be traded quite profitably, presumably because of the gaps. Going back over time, it worked better in very volatile markets, for obvious reasons, urgency and fear.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, the greenback is on fire today:burn:


----------



## CanOz

The FTSE is set to gap open with everything else in Europe, plus its got this bracket that will result in some imbalanced price action and with that, opportunity. There few scarios, an open drive is possible, an open test drive is likely too. Determine where you think the lines in the sand would be for one or the other. Personally i think and open test drive might occur if the market gaps up but not higher than 6269, but if it gaps above this, we could see shorts cover all the way to 6296, which is the target for this.

If we do open/test drive then one wouldn't want the market to test below 6244

Reminder: Holiday in the US


----------



## CanOz

The Yen has taken a pounding today with the Government set to delay the implementation of a sales tax....and the US closer to a rate hike. This is certainly helped my Yen pairs that i held over the weekend.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> A couple of my observations/thoughts about bull markets compared to bear markets....in Bull markets , prices move up slower because punters like to hang onto profits, where as in bear markets, prices decline swiftly as fear sets in, so the theory goes. So from my point of view 'value' as expressed by the most highly traded price should be constantly accepted higher through consolidations (Brackets) and breakouts. An aging trend should have value area grinding higher as the auction struggles to attract more bidders. I should be able to illustrate this using my TPO momentum indicator. Also, we can plot an ATR to show lowering volatility as the market accepts higher value in bull markets and higher volatility as the market searches for value lower during bear markets...
> 
> So what should we expect from intra-day price action during bull markets? I think it would mean more rotational days, narrower ranges, fewer large range extensions. Some nice short covering rallies, as well as a few good breaks as longs liquidate but some solid excess lows where lower prices are firmly rejected at the value area highs of previous brackets.
> 
> The average daily range is shrinking in a bull market, so is the opportunity for large moves. Perhaps larger size and smaller targets should be considered, rather than smaller size and bigger targets...
> 
> The chart shows the ATR as a measure of volatility and the TPO momentum which shows the change in the 'most agreed' price of the day, as defined by the amount of time it spends at that price, not volume.
> 
> This is a really interesting topic and the above are only my thoughts in answer to your question. I would love to be able to quantify it more. An interesting note on quantifying this type of thing, i found through extensive testing of an open range breakout system (SPI) that during bear markets the opening 5-10 minute range could be traded quite profitably, presumably because of the gaps. Going back over time, it worked better in very volatile markets, for obvious reasons, urgency and fear.




This is really really good stuff. Also you unfortunately confirmed some of my views with regards to bull vs bear markets


----------



## kid hustlr

is the ftse closed?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> is the ftse closed?




Yeah holidays in US and UK today/tonight.


----------



## kid hustlr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah holidays in US and UK today/tonight.




Guess I'll go home and talk to the (sigh) wife.


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Guess I'll go home and talk to the (sigh) wife.




Well if the market is not there to FTSE you, then that may be your next best option.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah holidays in US and UK today/tonight.




Shame that!


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Shame that!




The DAX side is still rockin'


----------



## Modest

CanOz said:


> A couple of my observations/thoughts about bull markets compared to bear markets....in Bull markets , prices move up slower because punters like to hang onto profits, where as in bear markets, prices decline swiftly as fear sets in, so the theory goes. So from my point of view 'value' as expressed by the most highly traded price should be constantly accepted higher through consolidations (Brackets) and breakouts. An aging trend should have value area grinding higher as the auction struggles to attract more bidders. I should be able to illustrate this using my TPO momentum indicator. Also, we can plot an ATR to show lowering volatility as the market accepts higher value in bull markets and higher volatility as the market searches for value lower during bear markets...
> 
> So what should we expect from intra-day price action during bull markets? I think it would mean more rotational days, narrower ranges, fewer large range extensions. Some nice short covering rallies, as well as a few good breaks as longs liquidate but some solid excess lows where lower prices are firmly rejected at the value area highs of previous brackets.
> 
> The average daily range is shrinking in a bull market, so is the opportunity for large moves. Perhaps larger size and smaller targets should be considered, rather than smaller size and bigger targets...
> 
> The chart shows the ATR as a measure of volatility and the TPO momentum which shows the change in the 'most agreed' price of the day, as defined by the amount of time it spends at that price, not volume.
> 
> This is a really interesting topic and the above are only my thoughts in answer to your question. I would love to be able to quantify it more. An interesting note on quantifying this type of thing, i found through extensive testing of an open range breakout system (SPI) that during bear markets the opening 5-10 minute range could be traded quite profitably, presumably because of the gaps. Going back over time, it worked better in very volatile markets, for obvious reasons, urgency and fear.




Are there stats out there about periods of low volume and whether the price tends to go in the direction of the prevailing trend (higher tf, 2hr or daily?) during low volume periods   ?


----------



## cynic

Modest said:


> Are there stats out there about periods of low volume and whether the price tends to go in the direction of the prevailing trend (higher tf, 2hr or daily?) during low volume periods   ?




And whilst you're taking requests CanOz, could I have a side order of fries!


----------



## Modest

Fuu can't edit it, maybe I shouldn't have quoted CanOz directly... It is more a question to anyone reading. Something I have been finkin` about lately amongst other things. 

Sorry CanOz did not mean any disrespect! 

Anyway.... Retail keep on piling short US... I reckon we'll make an ATH on ES before we go the other way...


----------



## CanOz

Regarding low volume you would have to devis a query based on volume, perhaps starting with low volume days then a trend overlay. Happy to provide the data

Holidays though, where the holidays are only in the US tend to create illiquid opportunities where stops get run with no one to use the extra liquidity, like the US dollar today....I'll be looking to get out tomorrow before it gets pounded the opposite direction....


----------



## kid hustlr

When is the traditional quiet period for overseas markets?

CanOz I know you've mentioned at some stage it quietens down for a few months.

Is that around this time? and when does it usually last to?


----------



## CanOz

Ahh, the summer doldrums, or from our pov the depth of winter....it usually is at its worse from August until the labor day weekend in the US....but perhaps a long term ES chart can show something....good question and stay tuned.....


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> When is the traditional quiet period for overseas markets?
> 
> CanOz I know you've mentioned at some stage it quietens down for a few months.
> 
> Is that around this time? and when does it usually last to?




Ok just eyeballing a weekly ES chart you can see that while not a hard and fast rule, the volume drops off in Mid July and picks up again after the first week in September....thats when we're going back behind the wall for a few weeks...


----------



## Joules MM1

:

honkers heavy lifting locals waited .....trap set ?


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 66900
> 
> 
> :
> 
> honkers heavy lifting locals waited .....trap set ?




I notived the SPI sold off with that DPRK announcement and wondered if the HKFE would change things...still busy mucking around with my connections...


----------



## CanOz

With IG pegging the open of the FTSE at a bid of 6254, the bracket breakout is still in play...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> With IG pegging the open of the FTSE at a bid of 6254, the bracket breakout is still in play...




Do you think the day of leads there to be more or less chance of them running it?


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Do you think the day of leads there to be more or less chance of them running it?




There is no way I'll be good enough to get on this if it breaks to the upside - don't really have a playbook plan for this one.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> There is no way I'll be good enough to get on this if it breaks to the upside - don't really have a playbook plan for this one.




Is that another holiday there??


----------



## Joules MM1

mid year lemony snickets...last days of periods tend to be a rind....grind....


----------



## Joules MM1

bet the futes open sucked in a few ...the cfd positions are fairly balanced so no easy gimme's with that play
but there was an extension ....coincidence, yeah,  maybe


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> bet the futes open sucked in a few ...the cfd positions are fairly balanced so no easy gimme's with that play
> but there was an extension ....coincidence, yeah,  maybe




got me the first time but i got them the second time.

same old story, be patient, maybe try selling the high instead of buying it etc etc


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> got me the first time but i got them the second time.
> 
> same old story, be patient, maybe try selling the high instead of buying it etc etc




[video]https://youtu.be/eKgPY1adc0A[/video]

here's my mumbo jumbo on making a sale




and as i type an archway opens and downhill we go


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> bet the futes open sucked in a few ...the cfd positions are fairly balanced so no easy gimme's with that play
> but there was an extension ....coincidence, yeah,  maybe




Just on this.

If last nights FTSE price action isnt a classic example of how brutal these markets are then I don't know what is.


----------



## CanOz

Nice GDP number for Australia, beating the estimate



> 11:30*(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.1% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 3.1% V 2.8%EGDP Contributions q/q: - Final Consumption: +0.7% v +0.7% prior- Capital Formation: -1.7% more... (related AUD/JPY AUD/NZD AUD/USD EWA NZD/AUD) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Just on this.
> 
> If last nights FTSE price action isnt a classic example of how brutal these markets are then I don't know what is.




theyre out to get you .....true story 

------------------
write your own bots
https://cryptotrader.org/ 

monkeys got a bitcoin angle to make it nice and digital fuzzy....or cloudy, something !


----------



## CanOz

'Poweder Keg' trade setting up on the HHI and HSI....getting pretty full, just need a spark now:grenade:


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Not sure if it's the nature of the market at the moment but I seem to have my stop taken a lot and then have the trade go my way. Anyone else experiencing this or am i just horrid?
> 
> Perhaps its the nature of the current market - choppy price action, looking for longer term winners might be an error - i should be taking 10-15 point winners rather than reaching for 30's and 40's and also be more patient when entering trades, god knows im getting the opportunities.




Back to this again it seems.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> 'Poweder Keg' trade setting up on the HHI and HSI....getting pretty full, just need a spark now:grenade:




Boom! Unfortunately I wasn't there......


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Boom! Unfortunately I wasn't there......




sorry, Can
we swapped kegs ......now some unsuspecting waiter is about to pepper-grind extra hot condiment onto pasta
:couch

emoji's are making a come-back:brille:


----------



## minwa

S&Ps very fun day of manipulation to take liquidity.


----------



## Joules MM1

minwa said:


> S&Ps very fun day of manipulation to take liquidity.




hmmmm....wonder what those muggers thought would allow them to raid the fridge ?





> Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader
> 
> Smaller futures traders are really not buying this rally. Almost back to a record short position.


----------



## notting

The employment figures in the states were not that bad.  Market is treating this as big blow and the US economy isn't as strong as thought - gold.  That is rubbish.
Just remember that most of the financial media in the states are Republican C0ck suckers and want to make Obamas perfect record look bad, somehow. That way Gumboot Mouth may get a vote.

*The fed should raise at the next meet regardless.*

First of all there is no fundamental reason why the FED should not, with full employment pretty much in place.  The second reason is that the election is still far enough away and they should get it out of the way now and give themselves some breathing space.
I will be very disappointing if they don't, market is now assuming they won't.


----------



## Modest

CL

Quoted for truth:


----------



## CanOz

Smelling like a top in is in, going through the VIX and the ATR's for the US, its the quietest its been (in terms of volatility) for years....Thanks to Quant as well for pointing out something so obvious, I always used ATR for stop loss calculation but I'd not though of it for broader tops and bottoms.


----------



## Modest




----------



## kid hustlr

any thoughts on the attached?

am i understanding market profile correctly?


----------



## kid hustlr

Maybe I should simplify the question - is it common for the VPOC to get tested?


----------



## kid hustlr

Also if someone could explain to me why the FTSE melted up just before the roll ended that would also be appreciated


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Also if someone could explain to me why the FTSE melted up just before the roll ended that would also be appreciated




Tis Friday and moreso, third of its kin upon the month. Thy seers, with their orbs of crystal wrought, beseech thee tread warily lest one be smitten by unseemly happenings so portended.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Maybe I should simplify the question - is it common for the VPOC to get tested?




Yeah, they get tested all the time....they're one of those levels that the market seems to trade to allot. You need to put the profiles into some time frame though, either one profile for each day, or a profile for a lengthy period or time to catch the most recent bracket or range. This will help develop context and allow you to see where the auction is considering 'value'.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Yeah, they get tested all the time....they're one of those levels that the market seems to trade to allot. You need to put the profiles into some time frame though, either one profile for each day, or a profile for a lengthy period or time to catch the most recent bracket or range. This will help develop context and allow you to see where the auction is considering 'value'.




Thanks mate - this is my understanding I mean I've always worked off the concepts that high volume areas are tested but in my limited Market Profile reading on the web it doesn't come up much.

I'm not sure I'm going to use it extensively, it may just assist me with my pre-market framing. I think using the higher volume areas on the histogram will let me better define support + resistance areas rather than lines on a chart. 

Last night for example I got it completely wrong. My view was if price fell back into that 5935 area range below a couple of highs from the past week that it would likely be a sell/range day. In actuality we got almost a perfect cash open gap fill and then drive higher.

If I'd looked at MP - I could have seen that anything above the 5915 area was still on the upside of the high volume area, so when we get a gap fill and a huge bullish reversal its actually extremely bullish. It was just 'testing' the high volume.

Obviously a different story if it opened around recent value and just potters around the mean, perhaps slowly grinding up, then I would have been looking more for a bracket type day.


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> this is my understanding ......




view from 38th min onwards .....the video is as valid today as in 2012......repeatable example
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0HSgU8lZVg

ft71


----------



## kid hustlr

Not bad J,

I laughed when he got run over on the DOM.

For me these concepts aren't that different to the VSA thinking. I do like the pre market planning though and as I touched on I think this is a better method of defining levels compared to drawing lines on a chart


----------



## Joules MM1

are we over breakfast, break fluid, rhymes with rex-mex ...... 







blue arrows = buy to open
orange arrows = sell to open

levels context size 

 mondays


----------



## kid hustlr

Having a go and holding over the weekend by the looks!

I like the S&P trade, if you were going to have a go at holding anything over the weekend I think that one shaped up quite well.

The question is what SIZE J?


----------



## CanOz

Anyone game to fade the gap open in Europe today? 

Remember what TH used to say? Monday Gaps don't hold!


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Anyone game to fade the gap open in Europe today?
> 
> Remember what TH used to say? Monday Gaps don't hold!




He also said when they do hold watch out, although I believe that has more application on the downside.

I have no idea with today - i think the action will be fast however FTSE is going to open some 2% higher than it closed Friday - not exactly a standard gap....

Buy dips (cautiously???)



EDIT: Also my new super duper volume histogram goes out the window given the gap and the contract period.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> He also said when they do hold watch out, although I believe that has more application on the downside.
> 
> I have no idea with today - i think the action will be fast however FTSE is going to open some 2% higher than it closed Friday - not exactly a standard gap....
> 
> Buy dips (cautiously???)
> 
> 
> 
> EDIT: Also my new super duper volume histogram goes out the window given the gap and the contract period.




You trading the FTSE or the DAX?


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> You trading the FTSE or the DAX?




You're joking aren't you?

FTSE is plenty a big enough beast for me!


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> You're joking aren't you?
> 
> FTSE is plenty a big enough beast for me!




IG's opening calls....


----------



## kid hustlr

Do they price off the index or the futs though?

Either way I have ftse Sep trading 6116 (actually sliding off as I type).

I've got several possible trade ideas today but it might end up being a no trade day for me.


----------



## CanOz

Over 5 years of data on this long term composite....


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Do they price off the index or the futs though?
> 
> Either way I have ftse Sep trading 6116 (actually sliding off as I type).
> 
> I've got several possible trade ideas today but it might end up being a no trade day for me.




Generally, fair value adjustments are removed from forward/futures prices to calculate the cash price.

Outside of futures market hours, some providers quote a greymarket for their products.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Anyone game to fade the gap open in Europe today?




it's an "interesting" idea, or, i could do this instead: :bonk:


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Having a go and holding over the weekend by the looks!
> 
> I like the S&P trade, if you were going to have a go at holding anything over the weekend I think that one shaped up quite well.
> 
> The question is what SIZE J?






> Final #SPX #MOC Imbalance is $1907 Mil to BUY



, ex BarCap

amongst many....they were giving "it" a go ...i was merely tagging along


----------



## CanOz

Now that we've got the gap firmly in place, we've got a nice reference area. A break back below 2900 that is persistent says the short covering is over...Will we just drift until the vote though? We're smack in the value area though, any move up and through 3100 would be very bullish. Frankly, I'm just not feeling that bullish!


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice charts Can.

Feels like the market has run it's race and its now just going to flop around until the vote. I view recent action as bullish but my underlying view for the past several months has been US/Euro markets are going higher.

Trading plan for tonight I'm still unsure.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Nice charts Can.
> 
> Feels like the market has run it's race and its now just going to flop around until the vote. I view recent action as bullish but my underlying view for the past several months has been US/Euro markets are going higher.
> 
> Trading plan for tonight I'm still unsure.




My guess is something like this...

I reckon we might grind higher and then lots of volitility while the vote is being counted (our Friday late morning until late afternoon) and every little rumor sparks a flurry of sweeps as the lack of liquidity plays with the market makers heads....

Then, the vote is announced, its majority to stay in the EU, we spike higher and then resume the sell off....


----------



## Joules MM1

brexit ......no one cares .....they just dont.......the media and retail, on the other hand, well, let's get busy, huh!

due to watching CanOz top repost of a top strike i missed the entry .....was worth it!

https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/745433607297208320 thanks, S


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> brexit ......no one cares .....they just dont.......the media and retail, on the other hand, well, let's get busy, huh!
> 
> due to watching CanOz top repost of a top strike i missed the entry .....was worth it!
> 
> https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/745433607297208320 thanks, S
> 
> View attachment 67172





Go Argentina!


----------



## rvm

Agree - nobody cares about brexit. Charts are indicating downside for USD and markets look they would go parabolic in couple weeks. SPX shorts are toast. If Britain chooses to stay, I expect a short-term relief rally which will squeeze out the shorts, though Europe's problems remain.

From my commsec one report yesterday - 
For the UK, the vote will have a raft of consequences. Businesses and consumers in the UK will have to adjust to the decision whichever way it goes. The UK Treasury warns a vote to exit would cause a year-long recession, but private sector economists doubt this. For consumers and businesses here in Australia and in other parts of the world, life will go on, they will continue to spend, invest, travel, trade and hire new workers, and no doubt they will start focussing on the next ‘event’ such as the US election in November.

-- Just watch for some 'red october' headline in few months. I predicted this here first


----------



## kid hustlr

Market Profile Pic below.

Is this profile common for a market which is shifting higher or can this be viewed as 'divergence' (for lack of a better term) as the market moves higher with value areas having less trade?

My gut feel is its just a function of a natural bullish market (how can there be volume there if it hasn't traded there) but figured I'd ask the question.


----------



## kid hustlr

All things considered I think the FTSE chart fought back pretty well compared to most.

Weak GBP assists exporters I guess?


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> All things considered I think the FTSE chart fought back pretty well compared to most.
> 
> Weak GBP assists exporters I guess?




My guess is central bank interventions.


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> My guess is central bank interventions.




Nah, a weak GBP has to drive some interest in exporters....plus Carney hasn't allot left to be spending on equity market saves....

There are some interesting scenarios now....wish I had time to write and discuss....the GBP might not end up looking to bad as a reflection of choices in the eu region....


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> All things considered I think the FTSE chart fought back pretty well compared to most.
> 
> Weak GBP assists exporters I guess?




Yes it was a remarkable come back.... it came back to the point that it was not even a 3 day low. It felt like a no brainer short at ~6200 (I was asleep by then).

I think the UK market is in denial and still doesn't know what's hit it.

A LOT of trade and investments will freeze in the face of uncertainty. Who's going to put money into UK when the currency can have a 10-15% range in months, while accessible markets can potentially change from the whole EU to just UK (or even just England).

The numbers will start to show in the next quarter or two, and the market will price in a recession in good time.


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> Yes it was a remarkable come back.... it came back to the point that it was not even a 3 day low. It felt like a no brainer short at ~6200 (I was asleep by then).
> 
> I think the UK market is in denial and still doesn't know what's hit it.
> 
> A LOT of trade and investments will freeze in the face of uncertainty. Who's going to put money into UK when the currency can have a 10-15% range in months, while accessible markets can potentially change from the whole EU to just UK (or even just England).
> 
> The numbers will start to show in the next quarter or two, and the market will price in a recession in good time.




Yep - Agreed we've still go to sell rallies but the turn around was quite significant. That being said with GBP -10% and FTSE -8%, overseas fund managers are getting stock a heck of a lot cheaper than they were 24 hours earlier. If they liked them then they must love them now!


----------



## Joules MM1

mondays



			
				Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader Jun 24 said:
			
		

> Of the 17 times the S&P futures or SPY gapped down 3%, the best results were from the open to 4 days later, up 14 times avg 6.5%.


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> mondays




What's the definition of a gap? is it simply an opening price different to the closing price or is it an opening price outside of yesterdays range??


----------



## notting

FTSE futures down over 4%!


----------



## notting

skc said:


> Yes it was a remarkable come back.... it came back to the point that it was not even a 3 day low. It felt like a no brainer short at ~6200 (I was asleep by then).
> 
> I think the UK market is in denial and still doesn't know what's hit it.
> 
> A LOT of trade and investments will freeze in the face of uncertainty. Who's going to put money into UK when the currency can have a 10-15% range in months, while accessible markets can potentially change from the whole EU to just UK (or even just England).



FTSE headline number can be deceptive.
It is a market that is dominated by defensive nature stocks.  If you look at the financials in isoation and other sectors like materials you see plenty of double digit decemation.


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Nah, a weak GBP has to drive some interest in exporters....plus Carney hasn't allot left to be spending on equity market saves....
> 
> There are some interesting scenarios now....wish I had time to write and discuss....the GBP might not end up looking to bad as a reflection of choices in the eu region....




Did you notice the SNB activity on that day?


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Did you notice the SNB activity on that day?




Yeah, i figured that and the Yen might attract some attention. The Yen might get some love this week. I don't expect much in the way of the GBP or equity markets tho...


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> What's the definition of a gap? is it simply an opening price different to the closing price or is it an opening price outside of yesterdays range??




yes and yes ......plus all the rest


----------



## Joules MM1

nothing to see here....







> You told me I was the neatest thing
> You even asked me to wear your ring
> You ran around with every girl in town
> You didn't even care if it got me down
> 
> Uh huh, hmm hmm
> Gonna get along without you now
> Mhm mhm, hmm hmm
> Gonna get along without you now






			
				Carlo Perrotta ‏@carloper Jun 26 said:
			
		

> The last 2 days of English politics have been the most tragic display of ineptitude I've ever seen in my life, and I am Italian.


----------



## notting

Two things to remember. The 24 hour 2 Trillion global sell off after the Brexit announcement was the biggest in history.
Second remember what the markets used to do over Greece!
China has been sneaking down the Yuan too and remember what that did in Jan, Feb.
The carnage hasn't even started.


----------



## notting

Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland getting another QTR of their value smashed for a second day in London.  
Banks are the life blood of any economy and these are two of the biggest banks in Europe and the world.


----------



## notting

Also re this -



skc said:


> Yes it was a remarkable come back.... it came back to the point that it was not even a 3 day low. It felt like a no brainer short at ~6200 (I was asleep by then).
> 
> I think the UK market is in denial and still doesn't know what's hit it.
> 
> A LOT of trade and investments will freeze in the face of uncertainty. Who's going to put money into UK when the currency can have a 10-15% range in months, while accessible markets can potentially change from the whole EU to just UK (or even just England).




Something like 80% of major company earnings for companies listed on the FTSE come from Euro zone so the fall in the pound is a pretty big bonus for these companies.
Still going to be a big mess cause Euro is weekened big time without GB on board.


----------



## rvm

Any thoughts on gold?

As per instos guidelines 1320 is the gold peak value after brexit (credit suisse brexit playbook) - COT report suggests that commercials are short gold and retail is bullish. Whenever I have seen sharp divergence between commercial Vs retail positioning, commercials have been right.
Another interesting activity is VIX behavior - it turned negative and stayed negative as wall street was down more than 300 points overnight.
Goldman and the rest have advised clients who want to purchase gold to do so using GBP and EUR as they don't see any upside in USD gold trade. This seems sensible considering that markets expect a rate cut from BOE and corporate bond purchases. It looks like currency trade rather than bullish gold trade(you can argue that gold has always been currency trade).
Coupled with above factors and the strong USD, gold should get weaker as paper gets stronger.


----------



## CanOz

No sure about gold but i smell a short squeeze cooking on the indices.......


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> No sure about gold but i smell a short squeeze cooking on the indices.......




Some big buying came in at 10:30
Gold not powering on and some weakening


----------



## rvm

CanOz said:


> No sure about gold but i smell a short squeeze cooking on the indices.......



Thanks for the reply  Europe futures looking green - Quarterly options expiry in couple days US. Sold small gold this morning - barring some ugly political news, I expect gold to take it on the chin.


----------



## CanOz

rvm said:


> Thanks for the reply  Europe futures looking green - Quarterly options expiry in couple days US. Sold small gold this morning - barring some ugly political news, I expect gold to take it on the chin.




Yeah, i'd be inclined to think it might test 1300 ish again, since it failed at the composite value area high at 1360 ish....


----------



## notting

Perhaps the silver lining is this -
After what has happened to the pound, the financial markets, the financials and property stocks in GB, Euro is now stronger because no one wants to leave and have it happen to them.  Spanish elections seemed to indicate they are going to stick with the status quo.  So maybe it will end up being a blessing in disguise and a change in sentiment over the whole Euro basket.

Meanwhile lets go and have some fun in London!


----------



## CanOz

Might have seen the end of the short covering....Yen rising, Gold Rising, Indices pulling back...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Might have seen the end of the short covering....Yen rising, Gold Rising, Indices pulling back...




Yeah,

Just to confirm here no one thinks this is over do they? Surely there's still far more pain to come. Most indices still look pretty sick - FTSE probably the healthiest of them all but I'm still expecting another down draft soon


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah,
> 
> Just to confirm here no one thinks this is over do they? Surely there's still far more pain to come. Most indices still look pretty sick - FTSE probably the healthiest of them all but I'm still expecting another down draft soon




I read somewhere that the market was actually higher at the end of the week when Lehman blew up. It didn't know how to price that event and thought that was some kind of low in terms of bad news....

There's talk that there's going to be a 2nd referendum after EU make some concession to UK... so may be the market is just rallying on that hope?


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> I read somewhere that the market was actually higher at the end of the week when Lehman blew up. It didn't know how to price that event and thought that was some kind of low in terms of bad news....
> 
> There's talk that there's going to be a 2nd referendum after EU make some concession to UK... so may be the market is just rallying on that hope?




some of this must be short covering...


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> some of this must be short covering...




Seems this has gone beyond short covering.....month end/start should be interesting.


----------



## notting

skc said:


> There's talk that there's going to be a 2nd referendum after EU make some concession to UK... so may be the market is just rallying on that hope?




That would be perfect!
Push out the the letter to leave for 2 or more years and pull an early election with the options on the table.
US banking futures got a big kick up this morning after the very positive stress test results came in.


----------



## CanOz

The Hang Seng looks set to break out out of its consolidation...Will it fail or break out? We should see today, the first day of July.


----------



## CanOz

PMI Day too.....


----------



## Modest

Yesterday was EOM ES, how about that Monthly bar close on the ES? What plunge?


----------



## CanOz

HKFE closed today...


----------



## CanOz

Interesting how the risk/off/risk/on type trades are consolidating while the indices get have the bid. So Gold has broken out, the 6A looks ready to make a move...RBA i suppose, the Bonds are ready to move higher on any poor data and the Yen looks ready for a pop higher....btw the measured move for GC is 1356


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Interesting how the risk/off/risk/on type trades are consolidating while the indices get have the bid. So Gold has broken out, the 6A looks ready to make a move...RBA i suppose, the Bonds are ready to move higher on any poor data and the Yen looks ready for a pop higher....btw the measured move for GC is 1356




Time to short the Footsy me reckons. @ 6,534

(For a change that's a joke misspell.)


----------



## CanOz

There are a ton of currencies and commodities setting up for some nice trades, i'll try and post some charts later.


----------



## Wysiwyg

> Indeed, at the end of June Fitch Ratings estimated the total value of negative-yielding sovereign debt had surged to $11.7 trillion following the Brexit vote.




The stock market is no place to be?


----------



## daytradeprofit

Half year has passed and nothing has changed, but......
Now it seems that the decision is in the final stages
Quite a few speaker and writer on interest rate increases and reductions worldwide.
A year and a half, if we look at, the number of instruments, and examine them in depth it appears that there is a contradiction between the expectations of the situation on the ground, or alternatively a lack of clear direction
I wrote a review earlier this year, arguing that this would be a challenging and difficult year, at the beginning, we received strong declines in the markets and stock exchanges
The truth is that, in October 2014, the markets are wide strip shuffle - Let's take for example the SP500 index:
we can see clearly the congestion range from 1850 to 2100
The range has been tested several times both from above and from below.
Technically net, without regard to the environment and other variables,
The target is 150 basis points, breaking the support level, or alternatively breaching the resistance level
Now lets test and look on the  Dow Jones
If we look at the index, we can see an interesting pattern
Unlike the SP500 Index
Here the picture looks rather more positive
Assuming that the pattern does indeed exist
There are three options that can be seen in the graph
Let's say that the region of 19,600 points in the first phase will provide me
And last for today
Nasdaq 100 Index
Here you can see a diamond pattern
This pattern is also similar to the SP500 has not yet formed into a decision
There is a probability of 50-50
Breaking the pattern area over 4530 points get higher target
Conversely breaking 4030 points get a lower target
There should monitor


----------



## Modest

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-systemic-banking-crisis-socgen-chairman-says

"Italy’s banking crisis could spread to the rest of Europe and rules limiting state aid to lenders should be reconsidered, Societe Generale SA Chairman Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said."


----------



## Modest

Lehman and $DB comparison chart 






Bail out soon?


----------



## Joules MM1

oh my




2% :grinsking 

98% :viking:


----------



## Joules MM1

> Hamzei Analytics Retweeted Pirouz_Hendi
> 
> ROFLOL
> 
> Hamzei Analytics added,
> 
> 
> 
> Pirouz_Hendi @StockDoctor68
> @HamzeiAnalytics ZeroEdge has been running a successful Diaper Fund since 2009
Click to expand...



everyone still staring at the sell side ?

how early is too early ?


----------



## notting

So here's my new theory - 
There is just too much money everywhere.
Bonds are beyond exploding points at the same time as stock markets at the same time as Gold.
What's next?   Just wait till it hits the streets. 

Hyper inflation!

Why hasn't it hit the streets?
Why are top line earnings still shrinking especially in world banks?
Well they have all had to do this deleveraging and balance sheet shoring up to new rules.
When that's all finished, like about now............
Does it matter? :dunno:


----------



## kid hustlr

Been some chat about the 'quiet months' coming up. Any explanation to this? Is this the July-sep period for the American summer?

How are intraday mkts influenced? Thinner trade? Small ranges? More suck outs stop runs?


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> So here's my new theory -
> There is just too much money everywhere.
> Bonds are beyond exploding points at the same time as stock markets at the same time as Gold.
> What's next?   Just wait till it hits the streets.
> 
> Hyper inflation!
> 
> Why hasn't it hit the streets?
> Why are top line earnings still shrinking especially in world banks?
> Well they have all had to do this deleveraging and balance sheet shoring up to new rules.
> When that's all finished, like about now............
> Does it matter? :dunno:




Not time to be pessimistic....fund managers just off record cash holdings...


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Been some chat about the 'quiet months' coming up. Any explanation to this? Is this the July-sep period for the American summer?
> 
> How are intraday mkts influenced? Thinner trade? Small ranges? More suck outs stop runs?





Crude and gold were all over the place yesterday....stop runs or thin liquidity or both. Fx should be fine.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Crude and gold were all over the place yesterday....stop runs or thin liquidity or both. Fx should be fine.




How about major European equity Indices? (Indici?)


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> How about major European equity Indices? (Indici?)




From memory the Dax gets a bit thinner and Peter from Jigsaw usually sends out a warning about liquidity on the ES.


----------



## Modest

$DB Deutsche Bank AG said Wednesday that its second-quarter net income fell 98% from a year earlier.


----------



## Modest

Modest said:


> $DB Deutsche Bank AG said Wednesday that its second-quarter net income fell 98% from a year earlier.




What do you do when you are one of the biggest indices in Europe and are unable to rise simply because two of your biggest constituents?

Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse Kicked Out Of Stoxx Europe 50 Index

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...redit-suisse-kicked-out-stoxx-europe-50-index


----------



## kid hustlr

FTSE distribution last night, I can't recall seeing one like this.

With NFP tonight and a distribution like that I'd imagine one would be thinking fade extremes for trade ideas pre NFP?


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, looks like trying to find some balance there. You'd be a able to get some long term levels off a composite profile to give you hints where the market will balance


----------



## CanOz

Buyers really responded to yesterday's vpoc......

Correction, looks like that is yestys value are low.


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> FTSE distribution last night, I can't recall seeing one like this.
> 
> With NFP tonight and a distribution like that I'd imagine one would be thinking fade extremes for trade ideas pre NFP?
> 
> View attachment 67974




Just to follow this through - the FTSE had a HUGE reversal on Friday.


----------



## kid hustlr

Can Oz / Other Market Profilers.

What's your experience with double distribution set ups like the attached? Do you find they 'fill in' or the node (6840 in this case) continues to act as a key level?

Starting to like this MP stuff it's fitting in ok with some of the concepts I'm looking for.


----------



## CanOz

Depends on the duration there but quite often the market will revisit a lower distribution...


----------



## notting

A couple of cracks - http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/26/deutsche-bank-slides-6-on-report-merkel-wont-help-the-troubled-lender.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/26/deutsche-bank-slides-6-on-report-merkel-wont-help-the-troubled-lender.html


----------



## kid hustlr

That's quite the offer.

"Who cares just get them done"


----------



## Wysiwyg

Getting to the business end of the U.S. election and I would like to know whether the large position holders are pro Frump. We have all seen the markets spooked before and just wondering if Frump scares the pants off investors.


----------



## kid hustlr

Is it just punting to want to trade the futures pre the cash open? feel like this FTSE is a slam dunk sell right now.


----------



## Wysiwyg

It is a ceiling but is it glass? Certainly a valid short entry level.


----------



## Wysiwyg

kid hustlr said:


> Is it just punting to want to trade the futures pre the cash open? feel like this FTSE is a slam dunk sell right now.



You saw it.


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1
2016-Oct-03 16:49:38
	old addage goes sell Rosh buy Yom (Kipppur)

this week thin trade, believe me, i know, seen lots of thin trades, then, after the skull caps finish, it goes bigly, yooj, bigly yooj, i know a guy who knows a guy, never pays tax, smart man, Bills and Hills pay tax, sad.....


----------



## Wysiwyg

FTSE looking at that resistance level again.


----------



## CanOz

Oil's gone off, as well as the Eurostoxx...Good PMI's i guess


----------



## kid hustlr

USA on holiday tonight?


----------



## SuperGlue

kid hustlr said:


> USA on holiday tonight?





Columbus Day - October 10 - Monday


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> USA on holiday tonight?




kid, columbus day nyse open, bonds closed


----------



## rvm

La Femme Nikkei-ta is very enticing

Specs are long - history on their side based on cursory reading



Boat's overloaded on one side.... but hedge funds and instos are starting to get long


----------



## rvm

Leveraged money convinced about USD strength.... 




Rate hike in December?

thanks to Joules for introducing me to timingcharts!


----------



## Wysiwyg

rvm said:


> thanks to Joules for introducing me to timingcharts!



I find it incredible they are selling backtested simulations with potential 37% drawdown, a fixed $40 slippage, no commision (LOL) and in 25 years their backtest turned $50 thousand into $355 billion. Niiice. 

Lol, there isn't enough room on the stats. graphs to fit all the zero's.


----------



## Quant

Wysiwyg said:


> I find it incredible they are selling backtested simulations with potential 37% drawdown, no commission and in 25 years their backtest turned $50 thousand into $355 billion. Niiice.
> 
> Lol, there isn't enough room on the stats. graphs to fit all the zero's.




And its only 50 bucks lmao  , they do mention 40 bucks for commish and slippage to be fair .


----------



## Wysiwyg

Quant said:


> And its only 50 bucks lmao  , they do mention 40 bucks for commish and slippage to be fair .



Okay I see that is per contract. I better get started tomorrow then. Will drop back in 25 years to say hello.


----------



## Joules MM1

rvm said:


> Leveraged money convinced about USD strength....
> 
> View attachment 68443
> 
> 
> Rate hike in December?
> 
> thanks to Joules for introducing me to timingcharts!




no worries ...and for the folks who arent being muppets and enjoy *free* COT representational charts only

simply select from C.O.T drop down
select from the Symbol drop down
select from the lower time frame (how many years) 
then draw the horizontal bar to pin point the study period you want
and scroll across the chart to pop up a position size for any specific week you want

simple, free....here's a useable example https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=12971&page=16&p=903841&viewfull=1#post903841


----------



## Wysiwyg

This pattern appears a lot. The formation of a smaller and smaller range followed by a breakout (down in this example) that attempts to go higher but hits the lower trend line and chucks a whoopsy. Don't get me wrong. i want the ASX to rise but the U.S determines such things


----------



## kid hustlr

For the Auction market theorists - how do you see the FTSE? What clues do you look for which lead to a break of a balanced market?


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> For the Auction market theorists - how do you see the FTSE? What clues do you look for which lead to a break of a balanced market?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 68475




That 6898 level is quite critical and a trade level. For me i can't just buy it or sell it. I need to see some trade at that level. If it took it out convincingly that i'd consider selling the inevitable retest. Look for a tail if you want to buy it. You should be watching the GBP or 6E while trading the FTSE The UK data has spiked gold, which would indicate further easing....which should be bullish for equities right.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tx Can, agreed I need a set up.

I watch the gbp but I try to use it to confirm rather than lead my decisions


----------



## Joules MM1

honkers held back today

https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/789151261664825344

that was caused by this

WSJ China Real Time ‏@ChinaRealTime 37m37 minutes ago

A giant outdoor air purifier has been installed in Beijing, but residents are skeptical http://on.wsj.com/2edgztJ

(no, really, true story ....23 foot tall ....next time youre out driving hang your fake leather-smell out the window...)


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> honkers held back today
> 
> https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/789151261664825344
> 
> that was caused by this
> 
> WSJ China Real Time ‏@ChinaRealTime 37m37 minutes ago
> 
> A giant outdoor air purifier has been installed in Beijing, but residents are skeptical http://on.wsj.com/2edgztJ
> 
> (no, really, true story ....23 foot tall ....next time youre out driving hang your fake leather-smell out the window...)




Yeah i heard the thing actually generates compressed carbon (diamonds)...


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Yeah i heard the thing actually generates compressed carbon (diamonds)...




yeah, you know, it's jina, ok, i mean, they invented global warming so crooked hilary can wear cheap diamonds, i know, believe me, those dire.munds.are.yooj (make ok signal with fingers) ....when i get in power i'm going to ban all airconditioners and build a wall around america to stop hurricanes and i'll make jina pay for it...


----------



## rvm

rvm said:


> La Femme Nikkei-ta is very enticing
> 
> Specs are long - history on their side based on cursory reading
> View attachment 68440
> 
> 
> Boat's overloaded on one side.... but hedge funds and instos are starting to get long
> 
> View attachment 68441




Since that post, Nikkei up 750 points. Timing charts more useful than gurus claiming that Nikkei was doomed


----------



## rvm

kid hustlr said:


> For the Auction market theorists - how do you see the FTSE? What clues do you look for which lead to a break of a balanced market?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 68475



 If you are day trading, you may need session volume profile and the ability to create volume profiles over areas of your choice where price has visited before. Key is to capture longer timeframe view, which cannot be derived from that chart.

I'd look at Market delta, Sierra Charts or tradingview pro, which support these features. 

That volume blob is not suitable for day trading IMO


----------



## Wysiwyg

Haven't had a decent single session point move on the DOW for awhile. Must be something brewing for a big session either way.


----------



## Quant

Just a quick chart of interest  seeing as next week its on , might be conicidence but elections seem to mark multi month/year swing high/lows


----------



## Quant

Given NFP tonight this is another interesting chart of US unemployment rate with SPX overlay


----------



## Wysiwyg

That is a very very interesting extrapolation.


----------



## notting

Nealy every little change in Florida vote count is moving futures and the Mexican Peso dramatically
This is trader heaven!!


----------



## CanOz

The book is extremely thin on the 6m futures....be careful if you're trading this....


----------



## notting

Right about here you can start to see that people will actually start to think Trump will not be too bad(hurd mentality), people will like the fact that Republicans could now break the deadlock. If Hillary wins we're back to where we were yesterday.  It's a win win you can't lose!


----------



## notting

Understanding America


----------



## kid hustlr

OMG FTSE is just sooo thin - incredible


----------



## kid hustlr

FTSE almost completely round tripped.

Someone stuff a bid for 50 in the ladder and the market all just jumps in front and it runs 80 points haha


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> The book is extremely thin on the 6m futures....be careful if you're trading this....






kid hustlr said:


> OMG FTSE is just sooo thin - incredible






kid hustlr said:


> FTSE almost completely round tripped.
> 
> Someone stuff a bid for 50 in the ladder and the market all just jumps in front and it runs 80 points haha




Does this mean the big players have not decided on the market direction going forward?


----------



## tech/a

Think its all a bit of Ho hum.
Dow was -700 now -320

Life WILL go on.


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Right about here you can start to see that people will actually start to think Trump will not be too bad(hurd mentality), people will like the fact that Republicans could now break the deadlock. If Hillary wins we're back to where we were yesterday.  It's a win win you can't lose!




Bonds have pretty much given it all back already.  Unbelievable!!


----------



## notting

US Steel up 18% right now.  Unbelievable!


----------



## kid hustlr

Any views on Stock Indices out there?

My muted views on FTSE below - at key resistance I'm finding myself turning quite bearish short to mid term.




Seems to be we need to go up to go down in this game - some for of low volume upthrust day in the coming weeks would be a slam dunk for me. Might not get the chance?

Edit: it goes against my feel to want to trade in the opposite direction of the big Trump spike however to me this bar in the overall chart context is less relevant. If we had come off a 30% decline and I saw action I'd like that I'd be thinking the low is in but middle of the range I don't give it as much weight.


----------



## notting

kid hustlr said:


> Any views on Stock Indices out there? ..........Seems to be we need to go up to go down in this game




Hunting for a view is the game of a loser addict. 

The media, commentators and sellers of trading tips, methods and tricks, always want you to have a view or have you think they always have something for you.  They need something to say so they have something to sell. (Even if it's just a trend or pattern without a view.)

The seasoned trader knows he has no solid idea about the 99.999999% of stocks and what they are doing at any given moment other than mildly consistent probability price moving trends and value trends. 

The winning trader knows this also, however every now and then he sees the clear play, it stars him in the face.  
He/she doesn't have to go looking for it.  
He/she needs however to always be in the game so that he is present to take it when it hits him/her in the face.
It's most often an insight that others are obviously missing during particular tumultuous times when ordinary thinking is thrown out the window and technical damage for the time frame you know you are good at playing is  rampant.

They say no one can do it consistently.  It's true.  

How could it be consistent when it never happens the same way! That's part of the trick.
No one can teach it to you or sell it to you.

In this case all the poles where wrong and we'd 'never seen an election like it.'
Everyone was focused on the theater and overlooking the biggest roadblock of all that had just been cleared - the gridlock in the senate and the deflationary implementation of 'over regulation!' 

Epiphany rises - Jesus they just dropped a bull in the china shop! BANG!

What will the next one be? We don't know until it's happening! It could be tomorrow it could be in 18 months time.
And when it arises for the taking, trust me, you're on your own when you press the button! 
Then suddenly your not!

Oh and one more thing, whilst it's exiting to watch the Bull in the china shop, it tends not to end well and it won't!


----------



## kid hustlr

Unsure if you were replying to me Notting you've been on my ignore list for some time.


----------



## Userman

*PyroGenesis Canada (TSXV: PYR) is Poised to Capitalize on 3D Printing’s Potential*

PyroGenesis Canada (TSXV: PYR) is Poised to Capitalize on 3D Printing’s Potential

http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=5356168835571328&qm_symbol=PYR


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PyroGenesis Canada (TSXV: PYR) is Poised to Capitalize on 3D Printing’s Potential*



Userman said:


> PyroGenesis Canada (TSXV: PYR) is Poised to Capitalize on 3D Printing’s Potential
> 
> http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=5356168835571328&qm_symbol=PYR




as well as ASX:A3D is in aus ?

nice trend


----------



## notting

Whilst the financial media is bathing in the hope of the giant bullshi7 artist, now leading the unrestrained Republican party, is going to do economic wonders. 
Maybe just keep a lazy eye on  the The biggest bubble in the history of the world and the biggest debt load ever carried by any nation in terms of size, wobble.
How long will it take for the US bond market to become a junk bond market 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 years?

Make an educated guess, watch - 

A true genius don't you think?

This walking pyramid scheme unto himself has reached the pinnacle of his expansionism and is now  to incorporate the united states to keep it going, then it can only be the world or bust!


----------



## notting

Enter the statesman -


----------



## kid hustlr

Whoosh.

All the signs were there for this this morning. I got a ridiculously small piece of it because I'm a pansy. Higher volatility = higher stops, something I'm still struggling with and it proved costly today.


----------



## lRichards

i live in Aus and im interested in trading US stocks mainly under $5. does anyone on here have experience doing this? i found a broker called halifax, they claim to provide access to trade on ASX and US markets has anyone had any experience with them ? any feedback is appreciated


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Anyone heard from the man whose hand trembles?


----------



## barney

Gringotts Bank said:


> Anyone heard from the man whose hand trembles?




Yes Gringott ..... TH is still alive and kicking but it's not my place to elaborate ...... I agree his input around here is very much missed  I for one owe him a great debt of gratitude and I'm just one of many .... i hope he ventures back at some point .... his pearls of wisdom were invaluable


----------



## Wysiwyg

Didn't he turn $1k into $10 million?


----------



## barney

Wysiwyg said:


> Didn't he turn $1k into $10 million?




He probably could Wys!

I've never met him in person but I had the privilege of seeing one of his "CFD exploits" a few years back where he increased an account balance by just shy of 2000%  in 4 days ..... scary ability


----------



## rvm

Those charts from October worked 

Now, timingcharts is flashing a warning - everybody is flat as pancake at the highs









rvm said:


> La Femme Nikkei-ta is very enticing
> 
> Specs are long - history on their side based on cursory reading
> View attachment 68440
> 
> 
> Boat's overloaded on one side.... but hedge funds and instos are starting to get long
> 
> View attachment 68441






rvm said:


> Leveraged money convinced about USD strength....
> 
> View attachment 68443
> 
> 
> Rate hike in December?
> 
> thanks to Joules for introducing me to timingcharts!


----------



## kid hustlr

Any thoughts on the volume recently on the DOW?

Are we asleep at the wheel?


----------



## Lone Wolf

Rather than asleep at the wheel, I'm picturing more of a Thelma & Louise style, holding hands and smiling as we floor it towards the edge of the cliff.

I'd like to know where that volume is coming from too. After a strong move up, extreme volume that fails to move the price to new highs. At the very least, after such a hard run you'd expect further consolidation if not a decent pullback.


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Any thoughts on the volume recently on the DOW?
> 
> Are we asleep at the wheel?
> 
> View attachment 69308




Further to the above, the volume is still high and we now have several other confirming factors:






I'm no COT expert and I don't know how much weight should be placed on the COT for the Dow Jones however extremes not seen since the GFC also paint a concerning picture.

Add to that the fact we have a very expensive market:

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

and the warning bells are starting to ring. High's can take months to play out and at this stage price action has not confirmed my views - I am watching with interest though.


----------



## Wysiwyg

I thought it ridiculous the DJIA stall a strong run up at 19999.63. How freakin bizarre yet typical of the 'game'. No wonder people don't trade when there is such exact control over price.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Anyone game to call a top for the major indices?


----------



## CanOz

What's the date Trump gets sworn in?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Too obvious CanOz. It is rarely as proposed. The U.S. has been range bound for a month but I can't tell if this accumulation for another run higher or distribution at the top of a trend.


----------



## Joules MM1

...this is you, isnt it, Mycroft ?

Sherlock


----------



## kid hustlr

Can any of you smart people explain why index volume and futures volume don't track each other really closely? As an example the volume on the S&P and Dow Index's have been up quite substantially in recent weeks yet the volume on the fut's contracts is relatively benign?


----------



## Joules MM1

are you asking about total equities volume....there is no total index volume, it is the equities within the index so theyre the cash component not the "view of the future(s)" volume like the spi etc ......two wholly different ball games


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> are you asking about total equities volume....there is no total index volume, it is the equities within the index so theyre the cash component not the "view of the future(s)" volume like the spi etc ......two wholly different ball games




Yes talking total equities volume.

Agree different ball games but the two are heavily linked. Do you not find it surprising that there is a large difference in volume at recent times? ( I recognise things like quarterly rollovers etc will skew the difference but in the main my experience has been if theres a heavy day of volume in the futs contract the index has also had a heavy day volume wise.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Yes talking total equities volume.



Show us ya charts. Sometimes its the data.


----------



## Joules MM1

i never expect any correlation in eq vol and futes vol .....keeping in mind one is/can be a hedge and a cupla large onmarket trans or large sector post divi sales fattens eq vol but meaningless to futes direction


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Show us ya charts. Sometimes its the data.




Should have done that from start!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Should have done that from start!



Yeah that index data looks wrong.

same as this data...
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts

My data from CGQ and Kinetick don't have index volume so how knows whats going on?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yahoo one looks better
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/^GSPC#


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Yahoo one looks better
> https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/^GSPC#




Maybe for the S&P but for the dow the volume still seems extreme.

Weird link I'm not sure why:

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/^DJ...pbmVDb2xvciI6IiM0NWUzZmYiLCJyYW5nZSI6IjF5In0=

You're right there's probably some data glitch or reason for it


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Maybe for the S&P but for the dow the volume still seems extreme.
> You're right there's probably some data glitch or reason for it



Yep pretty sure the Dow volume hasn't increased 2-3 fold over Jan. Wish it would though!!


----------



## dutchie

CanOz said:


> What's the date Trump gets sworn in?




First time in 50 years that US market went up on Inauguration Day.


----------



## Wysiwyg

DJIA having yet another look at the poisonous 20000 points level. Looks like some sort of swing up for a break higher.


----------



## Wysiwyg

An inglorious moment I suppose.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Geez I reckon Trump's dump has killed the Trump bump here.

Rejection of new highs....


----------



## kid hustlr

Agreed T/H but for the last 7 years we are supposed to buy it here.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Agreed T/H but for the last 7 years we are supposed to buy it here.



Yeah but this time it's different..........


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah but this time it's different..........




There was always a lot of worries in the market... China, end of QE, Brexit, Trump etc. But now there seems to be lots of optimism. Trump will be good for growth. Yes he's a nut but he will be good for growth. That's all I can hear these days.

When all the optimism is priced in the market is euphoric, that's obviously the danger time.



kid hustlr said:


> Agreed T/H but for the last 7 years we are supposed to buy it here.




Yes... that's the magical thing about the market. Even though there is really only one market for everyone, it somehow magically knows that if *you *buy here (like you should have for the past 7 years), it will crash 30% just for you.


----------



## CanOz

Volatility is the lowest it's been for a while....


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> When all the optimism is priced in the market is euphoric, that's obviously the danger time.




I like that point and I agree with it. Longer term I'm only 50% invested here and feel like it's too much...

I believe there are signs it's turning. FTSE printed a big reversal on the monthly, USD looks like an incredible fake out to the upside, gold looking as strong as it has in a long time (assuming this is a lower high forming). Not to mention the rates discussion. Tide feels like it may be turning.

For so long the game has been buy the USD buy America stocks despite everything being broken.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> There was always a lot of worries in the market... China, end of QE, Brexit, Trump etc. But now there seems to be lots of optimism. Trump will be good for growth. Yes he's a nut but he will be good for growth. That's all I can hear these days.
> 
> When all the optimism is priced in the market is euphoric, that's obviously the danger time.



Ha funny you should say that. Had a bbq with two accounts on the weekend, ultra conservative, they were telling me that they are thinking of putting money into the USA market because of Trump will be good for.... something, not sure as I stopped listening and had another beer. 

Probably need a little panic here to smack down the market to actually change anything first.


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> Volatility is the lowest it's been for a while....



We have just had 4th consecutive SP500 close inside a 0.1% band , thats crazy


----------



## Wysiwyg

The market has been enthusiastic with the Trump Presidency and is now pricing in a Golden Age of prosperity. Hint of cynicism.


----------



## Wyatt

Another view on things FWIW



It sits in a group of other videos about the upcoming crash. Listening to this stuff really gets your biases going


----------



## kid hustlr

So I feel as though in recent months I've really started to get my head around the intra day thing on the FTSE.

When I look back this has been a years in the making (and I mean years) but I'm finally at a point where I feel like I have a level of trust in what I'm doing.

Coming from the bond futures market making/scalping background I've always found it hard to be able to 'let it run'. In effect i had 18 months drilled into me of "if you are wrong get out" which is correct thinking but in those markets it was the next price. Very short term. Over the last several months I've finally been able to place trades, set the stop and be willing let it go without watching it tick for tick and panicking every time I see a 100 lot in the depth. In fact outside of key areas I try not look at the tape and truth be told it doesn't play a key part in my thinking - completely different to what I used to do.

The other thing I've been able to do is define my plan better. I think this has simply come from time & experience and whilst I would still class myself as discretionary, in effect I have a number of 'rules' which need to check out before I enter a trade. In fact the discretion only really shows itself in 2 ways, defining my levels pre market where I will be interested and then secondly what type of market are we in (up trending? balanced? etc). The rest I could probably code if I wanted to or atleast get pretty close.

In effect a trade sequence for me might be:

- define levels pre market
- define current market context and trading behaviour
- based on the above points outline the trade types I'm looking for
- look for price action which supports said trade types
- execute

I guess the point I'm making is up until recently the execute portion I've really struggled with, but I believe that's because I hadn't properly defined what I'm trying to do. In the past I used to just be like "it's bearish look for excuses to sell it" whereas now I need to justify my trades far better.

My recent results have not been stellar, but in thinking in a manner of "did I trade this correctly" rather than "did that make money" atleast I now have a good informational diary which allows me to understand my strengths/weakness and find what works

sorry for the ramble.

EDIT: A big shout out to Pav (I wonder if he reads this occasionally) because the time we spent on skype was very helpful to me. I could never 'get over the hurdle' whilst trading with him and it was entirely my fault, I've had to work through this on my own.


----------



## kid hustlr

The other thing I'd like to add to the above is that there will come a time when I really need to find some longer systems which work well. my longer term investment plan is to have a chunk of buy and hold for income and then have a chunk of trend following. Been with radgey for 18 months and have results have been sub par (altho admittedly short sample size) but I'd love a manner in which I could confidently take 15% a year out of the market on a longer term system - maybe i could pay peter 2 and 20


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> S
> When I look back this has been a years in the making (and I mean years) but I'm finally at a point where I feel like *I have a level of trust in what I'm doing*.
> 
> The other thing I've been able to do is define my plan better. I think this has simply come from *time & experience *
> 
> In effect a trade sequence for me might be:
> 
> *- define levels pre market
> - define current market context and trading behaviour
> - based on the above points outline the trade types I'm looking for
> - look for price action which supports said trade types
> - execute*
> 
> in thinking in a manner of *"did I trade this correctly" rather than "did that make money*" atleast I now have a good informational diary which allows me to understand my strengths/weakness and find what works





Great post Kid  and certainly not a ramble at all.  I've bolded out some of your  points for easy reference in the future.  

I never personally followed through on Futs/ FX trading after failing so many times, but interestingly enough I use 'unwritten rules' not that dissimilar to yours when trading "specs with potential" which has worked out very well over the last 3 years ..... 

I think your "ramble" is a very good blue print for success. Cheers and well done on arriving at a relaxed trading position.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wyatt said:


> Another view on things FWIW
> It sits in a group of other videos about the upcoming crash. Listening to this stuff really gets your biases going



Can't compare the distant past too closely I reckon. For example population, wages, technology, Presidents, market sentiment, regulations and conflict all contribute to the present and future being different.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> So I feel as though in recent months I've really started to get my head around the intra day thing on the FTSE.
> 
> When I look back this has been a years in the making (and I mean years) but I'm finally at a point where I feel like I have a level of trust in what I'm doing.
> 
> Coming from the bond futures market making/scalping background I've always found it hard to be able to 'let it run'. In effect i had 18 months drilled into me of "if you are wrong get out" which is correct thinking but in those markets it was the next price. Very short term. Over the last several months I've finally been able to place trades, set the stop and be willing let it go without watching it tick for tick and panicking every time I see a 100 lot in the depth. In fact outside of key areas I try not look at the tape and truth be told it doesn't play a key part in my thinking - completely different to what I used to do.
> 
> The other thing I've been able to do is define my plan better. I think this has simply come from time & experience and whilst I would still class myself as discretionary, in effect I have a number of 'rules' which need to check out before I enter a trade. In fact the discretion only really shows itself in 2 ways, defining my levels pre market where I will be interested and then secondly what type of market are we in (up trending? balanced? etc). The rest I could probably code if I wanted to or atleast get pretty close.
> 
> In effect a trade sequence for me might be:
> 
> - define levels pre market
> - define current market context and trading behaviour
> - based on the above points outline the trade types I'm looking for
> - look for price action which supports said trade types
> - execute
> 
> I guess the point I'm making is up until recently the execute portion I've really struggled with, but I believe that's because I hadn't properly defined what I'm trying to do. In the past I used to just be like "it's bearish look for excuses to sell it" whereas now I need to justify my trades far better.
> 
> My recent results have not been stellar, but in thinking in a manner of "did I trade this correctly" rather than "did that make money" atleast I now have a good informational diary which allows me to understand my strengths/weakness and find what works
> 
> sorry for the ramble.
> 
> EDIT: A big shout out to Pav (I wonder if he reads this occasionally) because the time we spent on skype was very helpful to me. I could never 'get over the hurdle' whilst trading with him and it was entirely my fault, I've had to work through this on my own.




Much envy, well done kid, awesome to hear  would kill for it to be as clear as you seem to see it now, I constantly feel like I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing/looking for, in a state of paralysis and unsure where to look or what to work on. Feels like I'm throwing darts at a board. Timing, patterns, 1m, 15m, daily, I see nothing, except big volume seems to make things pause or change direction. Blind as  a bat, too thick to recognise the face in the crowd haha  So it's good to hear of those who figure it out! Keep it up!


----------



## kid hustlr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Much envy, well done kid, awesome to hear  would kill for it to be as clear as you seem to see it now, I constantly feel like I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing/looking for, in a state of paralysis and unsure where to look or what to work on. Feels like I'm throwing darts at a board. Timing, patterns, 1m, 15m, daily, I see nothing, except big volume seems to make things pause or change direction. Blind as  a bat, too thick to recognise the face in the crowd haha  So it's good to hear of those who figure it out! Keep it up!





Far from figured it out matey but i feel as though I have a sense of of understanding and a plan for a change!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

34 Points Range!!!!


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> I have a sense of of understanding and a *plan for a change*!!




Interested KH ... re the change part.  Are you meaning simply a change re your approach to your rules/entries etc as you mentioned above or are you looking to trading different instruments/different strategies to previously?  Cheers.


----------



## barney

Current move on the DOW feels unnaturally steep but hard to say if or when the retrace will happen ... i wonder if this guy is holding DOW futures! 

Lol ... I like the way they have the top of the ladder "roped" from above but no safety ropes for old mate who is a thousand metres high and a couple of seconds from permanent disability


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> Current move on the DOW feels unnaturally steep but hard to say if or when the retrace will happen .




Interesting stuff about the "melt up" last night from the nutbags over at ZH

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ltdown-here-reason-markets-inexplicable-surge


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting stuff about the "melt up" last night from the nutbags over at ZH
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ltdown-here-reason-markets-inexplicable-surge



What are your thoughts TH? ... Is the short covering scenario a possibility given the exponential curve of the DOW, or are the big boys simply taking the opportunity to push it to the limit with all the unabated exuberance in the market, and likely scaling into short positions on every higher high over the next X months?

I dont have true volume with my bucket shop data ... Is the volume telling a story at the moment?


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> What are your thoughts TH? ...



Sounds and looks reasonable but thats just the way of a bull market. Bears get slaughtered. Nothing new about that. 'Smart money' F-up just as often as 'Dumb money'.

Must be time for this one...


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Sounds and looks reasonable but thats just the way of a bull market. Bears get slaughtered. Nothing new about that. 'Smart money' F-up just as often as 'Dumb money'.
> 
> Must be time for this one...





Lol ....... 

Interesting that while the DOW holds firm the FTSE has taken a bit of a bath so far tonight relatively speaking yet the Pound is the currency of "choice" ..

I guess mean regression will set in and the FTSE will likely rebound 30 ticks after the US open and the pound will resume its downtrend into next week  .... Who knows


----------



## barney

barney said:


> I guess mean regression will set in and the FTSE will likely *rebound 30 ticks* after the US open and the pound will resume its downtrend into next week




Nice 3 day  "Mirror" pattern repeat on the FTSE last night ...

The Open to Open on Tuesday/Thursday was near enough to a 1% total move ..... and last nights 40 point move down was almost exactly to the 3 day 50% level ...... be worth testing some of this stuff ... if I knew how


----------



## kid hustlr

barney said:


> Interested KH ... re the change part.  Are you meaning simply a change re your approach to your rules/entries etc as you mentioned above or are you looking to trading different instruments/different strategies to previously?  Cheers.




Just approach barney - a little more rigid with my set ups and also defining them better. less reliant on how i good i think the trade is at the time and more reliant as to whether this set up meets my criteria


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> Just approach barney - a little more rigid with my set ups and also defining them better. less reliant on how i good i think the trade is at the time and more reliant as to whether this set up meets my criteria




Ok Thanks Kid.  

Just thinking about 'rigidity' in relation to trading, its an interesting thing.  If it comes from being dogmatic and stubborn its basically useless, but what you have found is rigidity borne out of experience creates strength and calmness .....   Makes total sense!


----------



## kid hustlr

barney said:


> Ok Thanks Kid.
> 
> Just thinking about 'rigidity' in relation to trading, its an interesting thing.  If it comes from being dogmatic and stubborn its basically useless, but what you have found is rigidity borne out of experience creates strength and calmness .....   Makes total sense!




Yeah it's a fine line and all trading is a ridiculous mind f*** at the best of times. Myself personally I find my trading is greatly influenced by my mood - if im feel frisky i'll be very active and look for excuses to get in, heck even on friday my stats say I trade more. Compare that to when I'm uncertain of myself and I can pretty much always find an excuse to not take a trade - or even worse get out early.

By having a better defined plan i just read the map and execute, none of this crap about how I'm feeling, is the market super bullish, or just a bit bullish or maybe somewhere in between, i needed to define things better.

Last night as an example the FTSE has been in this painful choppy uptrend of late, the old me would have said 'ok look for bullish entries but be weary of market conditions'. The new me says 'it's crap conditions, unless you get criteria a, b, c, d then don't trade it. But by the way if you do get those criteria then you have to take it'

It's subtle but for me its a key change and it also lets me outline where I'm going wrong vs where I'm not. In the past I couldn't really *measure* what I was doing wrong, now I'm finding it easier to outline if it's my execution, my pre market planning/trade ideas or my overall context & understanding which could be leading to problems.


I'd be interested to know how the likes of T/H who have been around forever approach things, my feel is the more natural you are at this and the better you are at managing risk/emotion the more you can afford to play the hand as it comes, whereas those earlier in the beginner cycle should know how they are going to play the hand before it's dealt, even if most of the time that means folding.


----------



## barney

Kid/TH other futs traders .... Only ever tried futs in a gambling fashion so keen to give it another try if I can find something that makes sense. Currently just bouncing around ideas to confuse myself, but I wonder if any useful patterns might emerge when back testing a  large amount of data on the kind of stuff like the chart below.  Its a simple box overlay of weekly percentage ranges on the FTSE since Xmas so nothing special, but I wonder about the kind of questions that might be answered by knowing more about a larger amount of data?  

for eg ... "Week A" has a high range uptrend finishes near highs.  The following Monday initially rises but then closes near its lows ... is this more likely to be a reversal than a follow on week?  

Or, after the high range week,  Monday is flattish but forms a double bottom on Tuesday and rises into the Tuesday close ... probability that Wednesday will trend higher? .. etc etc  Lots of other questions!

Is this the kind of research you guys would recommend pursuing at this stage?  Cheers.


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah it's a fine line and all trading is a ridiculous mind f*** at the best of times.




Gotta head out in a minute but thanks for the detailed post KH .... Will digest it later tonight after a customary Friday beverage! Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> Or, after the high range week,  Monday is flattish but forms a double bottom on Tuesday and rises into the Tuesday close ... probability that Wednesday will trend higher? .. etc etc  Lots of other questions!



You can do this kind of stuff in excel pretty easily. Only trouble is as you get more specific with the setup the less it happens, so lower amount of signals therefor you cannot have confidence in the stats holding up next time it shows up.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL at the DAX hey!!


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> You can do this kind of stuff in excel pretty easily. Only trouble is as you get more specific with the setup the less it happens, so lower amount of signals therefor you cannot have confidence in the stats holding up next time it shows up.




OK Thanks TH,  I remember you were saying something like that a couple of weeks back ...... you found a 90+%? success rate on a trade that basically never triggered!


There has to be some merit in the concept of having a rough ides whether the market usually does A or does B when it has did C the week before though doesn't there? ..... 

I'm not looking for anything definitive (Im not that regimented!) ... for eg. even on that tiny 7 week sample there are questions which could be asked/answered for the short term. Simple things like after a large % move the next week is generally a lot smaller range even if in the same direction, and the large range up move (top) was followed by an equally large range retracement.  Not rocket science of course but if the Instrument being traded has a history, it could be useful knowledge perhaps?   (That knowledge might be more useful in keeping you out of bad trading decisions maybe)

Anyway, just babbling on at the moment .... Spec trading has been good to me recently .... for a start I'd be happy to trade Index futs and just break even! lol


----------



## fiftyeight

Dax started Friday drinks early today


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> my feel is *the more natural you are at this and the better you are at managing risk/emotion the more you can afford to play the hand as it comes*,
> 
> whereas *those earlier in the beginner cycle should know how they are going to play the hand before it's dealt, even if most of the time that means folding*.




Great post Kid and really interesting last paragraph.  

To paraphrase your whole post into a nut shell ..... "experience" is the key!  

You may be a part time Buddhist you realize ...... Two of the keys to enlightenment ..... Wisdom and Simplification


----------



## Trembling Hand

Geez very bullish start to the week in DAX land..... must be the top


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Geez very bullish start to the week in DAX land..... must be the top




Novice boy here ... but short both the SPI and the DOW ..... Scaling in with a swing trade on both ... if wrong will wear it on the chin!!


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Novice boy here ... but short both the SPI and the DOW ..... Scaling in with a swing trade on both ... if wrong will wear it on the chin!!



Closed all that at break "evenish" ..... looking for more shorts on next high if it looks sensible lol ...


----------



## skc

barney said:


> Closed all that at break "evenish" ..... looking for more shorts on next high if it looks sensible lol ...



Why not just long to the next high?!?!


----------



## barney

skc said:


> Why not just long to the next high?!?!



Recent tops on the DOW just haven't felt natural SKC and breakouts into higher highs make me suspicious at the best of times ..... 

Only scaling into shorts so just having an each way punt at the moment and shorting higher highs is where I seem to lose the least from past experience


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee Barn hope you weren't short the DAX
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
 ... 

Good old fashion stop sweep..... welcome back..... !!


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee Barn hope you weren't short the
> Good old fashion stop sweep..... welcome back..... !!




LOL .... Nah mate .... I ducked at the right time tonight  ..... its still going too!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> LOL .... Nah mate .... I ducked at the right time tonight  ..... its still going too!!




Yep.  Put that one in the play book Barn. Seen it a few times. Strange (Monday) morning premarket push on higher than normal vol to take out old highs then a roll back to fill the gap over the next few days. Then Boom straight through and off to the moon.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep.  Put that one in the play book Barn.




Duly noted ... thank you sir ..... Spec trading is so much easierlol


----------



## CanOz

I was impressed today when i had my oldest son on my knee in front of the screens and he was able to tell me which markets were which, just from memory. Even i had to out the labels on them after a recent shuffle. As i pointer to each screen he said, Bund, Gable, Oyl, Dax...he missed gold. Happy to see a good start to understanding international markets!


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> I was impressed today when i had my oldest son on my knee in front of the screens and he was able to tell me which markets were which, just from memory. Even i had to out the labels on them after a recent shuffle. As i pointer to each screen he said, Bund, Gable, Oyl, Dax...he missed gold. Happy to see a good start to understanding international markets!




Lol... Isn't your son like 3 years old or something? If he becomes an expert trader by 4 years old, would that debunk the 10,000 hours myth?!


----------



## Valued

CanOz said:


> I was impressed today when i had my oldest son on my knee in front of the screens and he was able to tell me which markets were which, just from memory. Even i had to out the labels on them after a recent shuffle. As i pointer to each screen he said, Bund, Gable, Oyl, Dax...he missed gold. Happy to see a good start to understanding international markets!




If he is doing that after you shuffled them and just looking at the candlesticks that's unbelievable.


----------



## CanOz

Nah valued, he's just going on the position of each one I reckon....

lol @ skc


----------



## CanOz

Here ya go TH.....TT is showing off how resource light it's new desktop application is....not cloud but desktop.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Here ya go TH.....TT is showing off how resource light it's new desktop application is....not cloud but desktop.



12 screens, 175 DOMs, where is the rest of the it? 

LOL


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hey what version TT is that?


----------



## kid hustlr

Feel like I need to be more aggresive if I think the big push is on. Last night's action me looking for shorts but looking for the ideal set up is going to leave me missing plenty.

In a spot like this I almost just need to go for it if I think the potential is there


----------



## Quant

APPL down 1% premarket , maybe canary in the mine  . i think its topped myself  , my bullcount is going to flip today


----------



## Trembling Hand

Quant said:


> APPL down 1% premarket , maybe canary in the mine  . i think its topped myself  ,



Probably the mess the Euroland indexes are in are a pretty good indication its gonna be a bad looking week.


----------



## kid hustlr

Every market in the world rallying to the moon except the market I'm long (sigh)


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Every market in the world rallying to the moon except the market I'm long (sigh)



Lumber or Lean hogs?


----------



## kid hustlr

So as if some cruel twist of fate if I'd left my stop it would have come within a tick before rallying 70 points.

Actual exit at the time was good just after PMI we started reversing and my figuring was if we weren't rallying with other mkts before we won't now.

Wrong wrong 'well it is a bull mkt you know'


----------



## Quant

Rare event recently with a VIX/SPX correlation coefficient reading in the positive , cant see an edge in it just an interesting occurrence  , Many swing highs have a brief correlation but not every positive correlation is a swing high


----------



## kid hustlr

How we seeing it sports fans? 10 year bonds on the verge and equities markets retraced most (if not all) of the push from last week. One more quiet day before we get Draghi Thurs and NFP Fri or is the move to be had now?

I still prefer the upside at this stage - especially on the mkts I follow.

SPI looking as bullish as anything right now in my view (first time in 12 years)


----------



## barney

Got home this arv after a seeing the Quack for yet another ailment! ... Gotta love getting older

I didn't have any trades on so no need to ring anyone to get the problem fixed .... this time! .... but the charts below are a perfect example of why trading small size (on Index's) as a Neville nobody with dodgy data has its own set of difficulties ...

I just wonder how many retail "Nevilles" may have got caught ... and whether this rogue data is a genuine "accident" (I've seen it many times) .... or perhaps a chance for the bucket shops to catch a few retailers who aren't actually paying attention??

I'm not whinging ... I know if I play on their turf I expect to be "tested" ... but its one of the reasons I went back to trading "slow motion Specs"


----------



## barney

Charts


----------



## barney

Daily


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL They have to be taking the piss?


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL They have to be taking the piss?




 ... yeah, I remember I got caught on the wrong side of one of those "sweeps"  a few months back and rang the Co. ... to be fair they admitted rogue data and fixed the error, but I just wonder how many punters take the loss without checking whether they have been screwed or not ....It's a bit scary if you were holding a large position though


----------



## kid hustlr

Surely that's dodgy data.

Should of had a couple of bids in


----------



## Trembling Hand

I like.

*How to go balls deep on your trading*

Especially the sentiments in the last line.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Historic event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day. 
All about this,




If ya wanna know more have a look here,
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2017/03/that-is-how-they-do-it.html


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Historic event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day.
> All about this,




Intentional 7 years to the day or coincidence?


----------



## barney

fiftyeight said:


> Intentional 7 years to the day or coincidence?




Its a Trend !!!!


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> Surely that's dodgy data.
> 
> Should of had a couple of bids in




Yeah I thought that myself re the bids  The data hasn't been fixed either ..... I couldn't be bothered ringing them about it so in the end I just went into the Meta trader history and deleted the 2 rouge bars myself cause it was screwing up my visuals


----------



## Quant

Trembling Hand said:


> Historic event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day.
> All about this,
> View attachment 70465
> 
> 
> If ya wanna know more have a look here,
> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2017/03/that-is-how-they-do-it.html



Interesting stuff  and possibly a watershed moment in time  , thank you


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Intentional 7 years to the day or coincidence?



Hey don't you plan ahead 7 years?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Hi Trembling Hand, good post with some interesting charts, thanks.

One comment though, you say there was no reason but I think there was one and it was discussed beforehand by David Stockman (who was, amongst other things, Director of OMB under Reagan).

I don't follow him closely at all (I'm a leftie!), but a couple of weeks ago did see him make the prediction of trouble for the market after March 15th which was the date the US debt ceiling would be hit and wrote it in my notepad of pundit predictions which is a fun game to see who actually makes useful calls.

https://dailyreckoning.com/countdown-to-crisis/ (just one of the many posts about this he seems to have made in the weeks preceding the debt ceiling issue).

If you had sold the US market on the 15th, which was a decent up-day, it would have been the recent swing high.


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey don't you plan ahead 7 years?




True but I am sure you found  lots of interesting things in the past 7 years but you chose this one too return.

First of many blogs is probably a better question???


----------



## kid hustlr

So If i had to sum up my trading I would say I have a list of 6-8 trades in total which I look for. There's a base concept and chart pattern behind each trade and then the more confirming factors I can find to support the set up the better I deem the trade to be. I should also note that of the 6-8 sets ups, only certain ones apply in certain conditions, for example if we are trending down, there's several bullish set ups which are *'not applicable'* and are to be ignored given the current market condition. 

As a reminder of my context/style, I'm looking for swing style trades, risk 6-8 to make 30 type thing, hold period 15 minutes to several hours.

What I'm finding, and whether this is to do with current market conditions or just how I'm 'seeing it' at the moment, is that some of the trades which are *'not applicable' *seem to be working quite well and by not taking them I'm leaving money on the table, as well as finding myself at times going a little longer than I would like between trades as I patiently stare at my screen waiting for my areas of interest to into play. There's something to be said for 'being in the market' to assist with how well you are seeing it in my view.

Example is tonight: Given mkt conditions I'm only really looking to come from the short side as I deem it to be the better R:R scenario at this stage, yet when I see a set up like the attached I feel I need to take it.
If I deemed this a balanced or bullish mkt this is a slam dunk buy and hold, yet due to conditions it was not in my pre market play book.

Thinking I'm going to make a slight adjustment. Namely to still take these entries where the R:R looks ripe and I think its a good set up and just be willing to exit for a scalp type trade (although still need good R:R). In effect be willing to risk 3-4 to make 8-10, capture the initial swing then limit exit rather than look for the larger swing run. I'm wanting to introduce a scalp type trade which is trading against what I deem to be the broader market but the short term set up is just to good to pass up. 

Saying it another way - if I think the trend is down, short trades should be held for a long period of time, long trades should be very selective and held for only brief periods.

Interested in thoughts from those in the room - Am I kidding myself and inherently trying to move back to my short term bond scalping ways, or is there something to be said for trying to vary my planned hold time given my market perception.


----------



## kid hustlr

P.S T/H you should go back to blogging


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Interested in thoughts from those in the room - Am I kidding myself and inherently trying to move back to my short term bond scalping ways, or is there something to be said for trying to vary my planned hold time given my market perception.



Absolutely. You are not trading the same market from day to day. It literally is a different game from today to tomorrow and your setups/targets/frequency has to change to match IMO.

You just have to watch that your changes are a positive response rather than negative. Some good tells are the trade taken per day to daily range (ie more range, more opportunity, more trades) and the average win size increases with range. Otherwise you're cutting short to manage the volatility rather than the opportunity.

IMO.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Absolutely. You are not trading the same market from day to day. It literally is a different game from today to tomorrow and your setups/targets/frequency has to change to match IMO.
> 
> You just have to watch that your changes are a positive response rather than negative. Some good tells are the trade taken per day to daily range (ie more range, more opportunity, more trades) and the average win size increases with range. Otherwise you're cutting short to manage the volatility rather than the opportunity.
> 
> IMO.




Yeah I like that metric.

Make no mistake, if I'm using the above concept as a way of getting out of trades early, not being tough mentally and not capturing the bigger moves that I should be then it's a mistake to be doing so. I need to be treating these scalp type trades as an addition to my arsenal, rather than excuse for not holding longer.

Also, apart of me thinks that for my development, and even in trading in general, if I'm not constantly trading new things then I may as well give it up anyway because you just cant rest on your laurels anyway.

I should also note these trades are likely a little more ladder/tape based rather than chart. They are naturally shorter term.

Another example was last night, we opened up and headed lower. Then right at 7250 (which was a bit of a longer term support zone anyway) someone came in and swept size 4-5 ticks on volume and then stuffed the bid and continued to wear it. Now longer term the trend is still down and that order doesn't change the market, but there's enough justification to risk a couple of points looking for that to be the initial swing low and maybe collect 6-7 points leaning against him. The key difference is if I view the market is balanced or up trending I need to sit there and run it, whereas in a fleety, down trending mkt taking the 6-7 and moving on is probably the correct play.

Thinking out loud - feel free to post opinions


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOLz at the DAX......


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Historic event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day.
> All about this,




Just an observation re your blog TH ..... Very similar range/price/volume action back on 9th-13th September.

Back in Sept it ranged for about 8 weeks after the initial retrace before the sweep/spike to new highs (9th-10th November) ....

If a similar pattern follows through it could range between 20500 and 20900 over the next few weeks??

If it moves too quick out of the range (either direction) I'd be backing a downside move ..... but I'd give myself a 50% chance of getting that right


----------



## barney

View attachment 70481


Trembling Hand said:


> LOL They have to be taking the piss?




A quick follow up on this ......

Today Axi had another 100 tick rogue spike to the downside.  I emailed the Co. and asked for clarification.

They admitted an issue with a third party data provider, and assured any clients adversely affected would have been reimbursed ....

Fair enough I guess .... i asked if they could tell me the third party provider (knowing too well they wouldn't  ..... they advise they cannot disclose ... as expected.

Anyway, off the back of the spike I shorted the several other Index's for a short term swing figuring a rogue spike in any direction must mean something ..... Closed all those for a small profit but still holding an SPI short till a half hr after the US open or until stopped out ....

Only peanut trades but nice to get a couple in the right direction for a change lol ...  open SPI trade below ... Obviously it will blow out now its public knowledge


----------



## Quant

From ZH  , the news is in the price , much same today probably  ...


----------



## Quant

This last week is the first instance of bearish range expansion on rising volatility since the Nov election , also noted the treasury to junk bond spread has widened also  . Really is the first significant risk of to be seen since the Orange oracle took power


----------



## kid hustlr

Rate my trade - interested in thoughts and try to generate some discussion.

I recognise it's in a vacuum.

One other point to note is that i did pick up anything 'obvious' watching the tape. Price moved but it was orderly, didn't feel like a huge push. I would describe the volume as still above average thouh


----------



## kid hustlr

I would be REALLY interested in hearing from others who have done some statistical work on their respective equity indices if they trade futures. Looking at some FTSE data and I'm kind of blown away with what I'm seeing. Note this is cash hours only, 6 years of data.

- average range 75 points, slightly higher than I expected but there is a long tail in there. 72% of days have a range of between 33 and 95 points

- yesterday's high is broken 53% of the time
- when the high is broken the average new high is 38 points (skewed by several big moves). 64% of the time the new high is 40 points or less but there were far less false break's (say 5 points or less) then i was expecting. *Overall I'm surprised how bullish it is when we break y/d high.*

- yesterday's low is broken 46% of the time
- when the low is broken the average new low is 47 points (skewed by several big moves). 55% of the time the new low is 40 points or less but there were far less false break's (say 5 points or less) then i was expecting. *Overall I'm surprised how bearish it is when we break y/d low.
*
The other thing I did do was the break data into up trending vs not uptrending. Now this was just looking at the run up between 2012 and 2015 vs the rest and i was shocked that the figures/statistics above didn't really change. Perhaps this is because it was a pretty choppy run up in the FTSE or perhaps regardless of the bull/bear market the figures quoted above remain the same.

Will continue to research but woudl enjoy thoughts on other mkt's and experiences.


----------



## kid hustlr

I have a statistics question.

If i flip a coin it's 50/50 whether its heads or tails. The chances of flipping 2 heads in a row is 25%.

Noting the above, if i flip a head the first time, the chances of a head the second time is still 50/50 as each is independent.

Now on the FTSE, i have data which tells me based on 1000 days, (fake data btw):

# of times last nights high is broken (1 day in a row) = 500
# of times the next nights high is broken (2 days in a row) = 200
# of times the next nights high is broken (3 days in a row) = 50
# of times the next nights high is broken (4 days in a row) = 10

If we had 3 new highs in a row, what's the chance of a high on the 4th day?


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> I have a statistics question.
> 
> If i flip a coin it's 50/50 whether its heads or tails. The chances of flipping 2 heads in a row is 25%.
> 
> Noting the above, if i flip a head the first time, the chances of a head the second time is still 50/50 as each is independent.
> 
> Now on the FTSE, i have data which tells me based on 1000 days, (fake data btw):
> 
> # of times last nights high is broken (1 day in a row) = 500
> # of times the next nights high is broken (2 days in a row) = 200
> # of times the next nights high is broken (3 days in a row) = 50
> # of times the next nights high is broken (4 days in a row) = 10
> 
> If we had 3 new highs in a row, what's the chance of a high on the 4th day?




20%?


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> 20%?




That's what I'm thinking as well - in the case of the market they aren't independent events? (I Think?)

Edit:

Based on my data there might be something there for me which will help my trading, but I want to make sure my understanding of the maths is correct


----------



## OmegaTrader

kid hustlr said:


> I have a statistics question.
> 
> If i flip a coin it's 50/50 whether its heads or tails. The chances of flipping 2 heads in a row is 25%.
> 
> Noting the above, if i flip a head the first time, the chances of a head the second time is still 50/50 as each is independent.
> 
> Now on the FTSE, i have data which tells me based on 1000 days, (fake data btw):
> 
> # of times last nights high is broken (1 day in a row) = 500
> # of times the next nights high is broken (2 days in a row) = 200
> # of times the next nights high is broken (3 days in a row) = 50
> # of times the next nights high is broken (4 days in a row) = 10
> 
> If we had 3 new highs in a row, what's the chance of a high on the 4th day?







1) Assumption, there is no pattern and it is randomness, independence  500/1000 =50%

2)   Assumption 3 already  dependence given your stats   10/50= 20%

The assumption is the hard part...

Are you hoping that 80% of the time the trend will die out or...


----------



## Quant

kid hustlr said:


> I would be REALLY interested in hearing from others who have done some statistical work on their respective equity indices if they trade futures. Looking at some FTSE data and I'm kind of blown away with what I'm seeing. Note this is cash hours only, 6 years of data.
> 
> - average range 75 points, slightly higher than I expected but there is a long tail in there. 72% of days have a range of between 33 and 95 points
> 
> - yesterday's high is broken 53% of the time
> - when the high is broken the average new high is 38 points (skewed by several big moves). 64% of the time the new high is 40 points or less but there were far less false break's (say 5 points or less) then i was expecting. *Overall I'm surprised how bullish it is when we break y/d high.*
> 
> - yesterday's low is broken 46% of the time
> - when the low is broken the average new low is 47 points (skewed by several big moves). 55% of the time the new low is 40 points or less but there were far less false break's (say 5 points or less) then i was expecting. *Overall I'm surprised how bearish it is when we break y/d low.
> *
> The other thing I did do was the break data into up trending vs not uptrending. Now this was just looking at the run up between 2012 and 2015 vs the rest and i was shocked that the figures/statistics above didn't really change. Perhaps this is because it was a pretty choppy run up in the FTSE or perhaps regardless of the bull/bear market the figures quoted above remain the same.
> 
> Will continue to research but woudl enjoy thoughts on other mkt's and experiences.





My experience with fading X consec green days is there is no edge BUT i do see an edge fading X RED days and the best edges come at extremes ,  i do believe taking context into it will refine the edge ( depth of move and position in range  )  , when i got my net back ill share some data , Brisbane here and i still have no wired net  and using phone hotspot and rationing data atm  ..


----------



## CanOz

Did you lose Internet in the storm quant?


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> 20%?




Just to finish this discussion.

Looking at my data again there's nothing too crazy there. In effect there is no real tell that after x days we are likely to have y happen. It's pretty much 50/50 from one day to the next.

5 up days in a row to 6 up days in a row is 16/32 = 50% for example.


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Just to finish this discussion.
> 
> Looking at my data again there's nothing too crazy there. In effect there is no real tell that after x days we are likely to have y happen. It's pretty much 50/50 from one day to the next.
> 
> 5 up days in a row to 6 up days in a row is 16/32 = 50% for example.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 70611




These numbers look a bit too neat? It's so close to 50% even with the small sample size... probably worth a quick check of the excel formula used...



kid hustlr said:


> That's what I'm thinking as well - in the case of the market they aren't independent events? (I Think?)




Remember the difference between probability and statistics. In a coin there's a known probability and the statistics over the long term will be the same as the probability. In social science, there is only statistics. We might imply probability from statistics but we could easily be wrong when something changes fundamentally. I think that's how lots of quant funds blow up... thinking that they are trading with probability on their side.

How does that translate to your FTSE statistics? :dunno:


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> These numbers look a bit too neat? It's so close to 50% even with the small sample size... probably worth a quick check of the excel formula used...
> 
> 
> 
> Remember the difference between probability and statistics. In a coin there's a known probability and the statistics over the long term will be the same as the probability. In social science, there is only statistics. We might imply probability from statistics but we could easily be wrong when something changes fundamentally. I think that's how lots of quant funds blow up... thinking that they are trading with probability on their side.
> 
> How does that translate to your FTSE statistics? :dunno:




I checked the data as I thought the same thing but I'm confident it's correct. It is very clean across the board isnt it.

There's some practical help for me here - the discussion above about highs and lows in a row doesn't give me much, but the stats I've looked at about how often y/d highs, lows (or both) are broken and the mean result when it occurs is telling.

I naturally want to fade most intraday and previous day highs and lows but working through this I'm a little more inclined to 'go with it' a fraction more when y/d highs & lows are broken


----------



## OmegaTrader

1) Is it random
2) Is it cause or an effect of an underlying process
3) Is the sample enough
4) Will the past repeat itself

60% prob looks good haha

but only 185 sample

looks like follow the high ...






Which in the long term makes sense if the market is going up long term anyway?

economy is inflating, population growth, technology growth, efficiency, profits, survivorship bias etc etc 

Idk


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> Did you lose Internet in the storm quant?



Yeah still no wired net , Optus tech due today but not holding my breath , imagine they be very busy . My phone data fees will be through the roof .

Ok here is a chart with the consecutive days marked , pretty plain to see that fading green looks less meaningful  but as i stated above fading extremes of red consec looks to have merit with quite a few marking significant multi day swing lows once the count ends , combined with a filter or 2 i can see a distinct edge potential . Once i have my internet back i will do some explorations  .

The point to consider is not the result the next day but the result over the next 5-10 days


----------



## Quant

Quant said:


> Yeah still no wired net , Optus tech due today but not holding my breath , imagine they be very busy . My phone data fees will be through the roof .
> 
> Ok here is a chart with the consecutive days marked , pretty plain to see that fading green looks less meaningful  but as i stated above fading extremes of red consec looks to have merit with quite a few marking significant multi day swing lows once the count ends , combined with a filter or 2 i can see a distinct edge potential . Once i have my internet back i will do some explorations  .
> 
> The point to consider is not the result the next day but the result over the next 5-10 days




OK nets back , spent about 5 minutes coding this and with no filters and zero money management the results are encouraging enough to continue on . this test is from april 2009 which seems cherry picking i know but it tests back to 1984 with positive returns , not difficult to filter out the crashes , with additional filters and risk management this has good potential i think  . Curve is smooth and steady and will get significantly  smoother with some risk control & additional filters , enough so as to Amp up size and get exponentially better returns.

This is using 5 and above consecutive red days as baseline , will expand the range  in time , will also test the consec green days scenario  .. 

since 2009 2 years have outperformed 2009 fwiw with another 2 very close to 09 returns


----------



## kid hustlr

Here's one that threw me.

Chart below is 6 years of FTSE daily data.

Blue line = index
Orange line = close - open (cumulative) 
Grey line = open - previous close (cumulative)

By definition Orange (during the day) + Grey (during the night) = Blue (and it does)

In mid 2013 something definitely changed. In effect the market has a HUGE sell bias during the cash hours then an EVEN BIGGER buy bias after the close.

USA dragging up the mkt out of hours?






Even more confusing is I did some study around gap fills (I defined a gap as above y/d range) and I found no clear edge or obvious tendencies (apart from the fact Monday gaps fill more often than the rest of the week).

I feel I need to go back and look at this more closely - especially gap up days.

Any thoughts/comments??


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Here's one that threw me.
> 
> In mid 2013 something definitely changed. In effect the market has a HUGE sell bias during the cash hours then an EVEN BIGGER buy bias after the close.



That's a well-tested feature of markets. You get paid for taking on risk, holding while markets are closed, and get punished while taking the 'safe' route - day trading long.

You will find that showing up in most bull markets. In all types of instruments. Punters rushing to get in on the open after realising they should have bought yesterday or last month!

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Here's one that threw me.
> 
> Chart below is 6 years of FTSE daily data.
> 
> Blue line = index
> Orange line = close - open (cumulative)
> Grey line = open - previous close (cumulative)
> 
> By definition Orange (during the day) + Grey (during the night) = Blue (and it does)




You should also plot daily Grey minus Orange. That way you will pick up any change in this observation quicker than a cumulative plot (and month tickers on the X-axis just so one can see the dates)..



Trembling Hand said:


> You will find that showing up in most bull markets. In all types of instruments. Punters rushing to get in on the open after realising they should have bought yesterday or last month!
> 
> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html




I was going to point kid to this blogpost but just couldn't find it...


----------



## kid hustlr

Here I am doing work when all I had to do was read the blog.

Thanks for making me feel inadequate all


----------



## kid hustlr

What I do find is that gap fills aren't that profitable. I need to do more work here but you can't just sell the open when we gap up and profit, there's more to it than that


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> What I do find is that gap fills aren't that profitable. I need to do more work here but you can't just sell the open when we gap up and profit, there's more to it than that



Cannot remember actually doing the work/stats/backtests but large gaps obviously are where the R:R is and from memory of something I cannot remember testing  large down gaps in equity indexes are better R:R and win rate ideas. For fundamental reasons too.


----------



## fiftyeight

AHHH this is why this **** is so difficult at home alone haha.

Once I finally did have time, I wanted to replicate KH study on the NK. I was expecting even more gaps and less mid day range. 

Spent way too much of today trying to get RTH hours into a spreadsheet rather than Daily Bars out of Sierra Charts. It will be something simple I know, but another day.................


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Spent way too much of today trying to get RTH hours into a spreadsheet rather than Daily Bars out of Sierra Charts. It will be something simple I know, but another day.................



Like ask the Python programming Oracle.


----------



## fiftyeight

That is my new ZEN emoji!!!!!! Something else that is proving elusive, actually much harder to achieve than expected???

I knew ASF would come through with the goods and if it was re data probs TH. Trying to be self sufficient is time consuming and annoying haha

Family is in town for a wedding, I am hungover as 33 year old who thinks he can keep up with a 20 year old cousins but I will look at the data. Cheers TH


----------



## CanOz

The US has attacked Syria....GC and CL going nutz....


----------



## CanOz

That low in the dax just then, is not insignificant. Don't be short now....


----------



## Quant

Whilst the media is France centric atm i think the Trump tax / reform overhaul to be ann next week is way way more important market wise .  IF trump does enable US companies to repatriate profits held overseas at heavily reduced tax rate what will this do to markets and currency markets ? A way more pertinent question than any election result in france by a huge amount imo  .

" The US president has promised that he will get America’s biggest companies to bring their vast offshore cash piles back to US soil by offering a one-off tax holiday. The plan is to tax repatriated money at 10% rather than at the statutory rate of 35%."   now if this occurs what will a rush of 1.6 trillion $ back to the US do to currency markets and secondly Equity markets with the inevitable accelerated share buy back schemes that would inevitably come with such a rush of funds . What currencies would these repatriated funds be coming from ?

Anyway food for thought & potential opportunity imo , interested in any  informed thoughts .

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-trump-idUSKBN17O0KY

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/21/trump-says-he-will-release-tax-reform-package-next-week.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/12/trump-tax-holiday-us-companies-apple-oxfam-tax


----------



## CanOz

The Frexit is just one trade Quant. 

There's also the gov'mnt shutdown looming, could be interesting. Its all news...


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Can the snap general election be a “game-changer” for both the UK's Brexit negotiations and sterling? I think so. The pound surged to a six-month high last week after announcement of a general election on June 8th.


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> The Frexit is just one trade Quant.
> 
> There's also the gov'mnt shutdown looming, could be interesting. Its all news...




Yeah good point re govt debt ceiling


Absolutely , anything that gives extra volatility is a good thing   .


----------



## Trembling Hand

Quant said:


> now if this occurs what will a rush of 1.6 trillion $ back to the US do to currency markets



Isn't that just 20% of the daily turnover?


----------



## Quant

Trembling Hand said:


> Isn't that just 20% of the daily turnover?





Not sure about 20% but thats equal to about one days overall spot volume , but given most of its churn a huge amount in 1 direction should move markets but i suppose a lot depends on what currency these ofshore profits are held in , may well be already USD and be a simple bank transfer with no effect on FX swaps .


----------



## Quant

SPX looking to gap up 30 which in itself is a rare event , not exactly a raft of previous similar events to gauge a probability  . Last 2 gap up opens >15 finished with days of positive 46 and 32 finishes respectively  . I think i might have the night of or maybe just trade the last 2 hours of US session . Crowded trade has been massacred  today , i was pretty lucky to get away with a couple trades today , not pushing my luck any more today


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah if any body made money today good luck to them FTSe has just been brutal since the vote announement last tuesday


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah if any body made money today good luck to them FTSe has just been brutal since the vote announement last tuesday




By the way the FOMC hike on the DXY chart is really good


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/top-fund-manager-pound-rises-will-brexit-basket-stocks/


----------



## Quant

Trump always in the headlines and seems the reason for this Globex SPX smashing  , this actually might have legs and not be such " fake " news   , been a great morning for me on this ... SPX , XJO getting sold and the shiny stuff on a tear

*Trump Should Worry: Comey Memo *


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social


----------



## CanOz

Yeah wish I'd been home...makes me wonder if Trump is trying to get impeached!


----------



## kid hustlr

Probably just the excuse the S&P needs to rally to be honest


----------



## SuperGlue

Just notice that Dow Futures is down more than 100 points.
Is this normal?

US an d EU market closed.


----------



## skc

SuperGlue said:


> Just notice that Dow Futures is down more than 100 points.
> Is this normal?
> 
> US an d EU market closed.




Not normal.. market bit edgey probably over the latest Trump news.


----------



## SuperGlue

Thanks skc.

Looks like a higher low pattern has form in the short timeframe chart.. Let's see if it will hold.


----------



## Quant

Well this sh!ts getting real , ATH 1 day , 3 week lows next , filled the gap SPX from 24 april  just now and lower a big chance rest of week , been a good week , looking like one of these breakaway gaps I love so much


----------



## CanOz

Welcome back volatility! You've been missed in the equity space.

Nothing like that period of calm that makes a market ripe for a catalyst.....any catalyst.


----------



## CanOz

The Vix spiked almost high enough to test the gap, but not quite. The ES is just a few points away from the prior POC at 2353.75. Lows are a made at night, will this stay true?


----------



## CanOz

The Dax should bounce here, if not, or if it takes out 12448...look out below. The Yen is still sceaming...


----------



## CanOz

Gold near a key POC as well.


----------



## CanOz

Bonds breaking out....Looks like they have legs. Bunds too.


----------



## CanOz

Let the bounce begin


----------



## pixel

CanOz said:


> Let the bounce begin



The bounce will only last until the POTUS makes the next gaffe.
He is sanity-im*peared fruit-cake* and needs to be im*peached*. Then and only then is there a chance that "she'll be *apples".*


----------



## Quant

Got to say tad surprised the SPX 16 may gap filled so quickly with 21 april gap fill stellar support/rejection . Momentum waning last couple days  . Back to home on the range with bullish  fake break stop runs to fade back on my agenda  . I'd suggest id have been stopped out of a couple fades this last 3-4 days if I hadn't been down coast on a break


----------



## CanOz

massive flash crash on the Dax


----------



## Quant

Bit of trivia , we have had 7 consecutive green days SPX and as I have stated previously there is no edge in fading consecutive green runs  , only red . But thought id post it anyway ( its a quiet day ) I put my bullcount on bottom for the visual on how it ignores inconsequential bars

PS last time there was 8 consec green days was July 2013 , interestingly enough 2013 has a large cluster of big green runs


----------



## kid hustlr

My stats say the same on the FTSE fwiw. 6 green days in a row gives no insight into where the 7th will go etc etc


----------



## Quant

kid hustlr said:


> My stats say the same on the FTSE fwiw. 6 green days in a row gives no insight into where the 7th will go etc etc



Ftse actually looks a tad more useful than SPX as far as potentially fading the large count consec green days tbh just on a straight chart visual , when I have some spare time I will run some code/backtests over it  , probably amount to nothing but I have to know now


----------



## Quant

Might amount to nothing but ive put a calendar alert in for daytrading at this time 

""  Former FBI dir James Comey testifies before Senate Intel committee on Thursday at 12pm aest ""


----------



## Logique

Likely hung Parliament in the UK.  This can't be good for market certainty.

Let alone where it leaves Brexit.


----------



## Quant

Logique said:


> Likely hung Parliament in the UK.  This can't be good for market certainty.
> 
> Let alone where it leaves Brexit.



Meanwhile its a sea of green short squeeze all over  , Cable is getting hammered  . I think that's the real way to trade UK these days  , FTSE is incredibly irrational


----------



## CanOz

Carnage....


----------



## Boggo

A bit of fun chart that may be of interest on the S&P 500.
The weekly and the daily have fairly similiar patterns. Not as well defined on the daily but they both have a "typical" target area around 2700.
On the weekly we still have a W.3 within the W.5 to form so there may be a correction to come even though it has reached the min Wave 5.
Let's see how it plays out, time wise there is still 6+ months left in it to the typical W.5.


----------



## kid hustlr

Usdeur is a slam dunk long here. Months of usd sell off ending in a climax over war. Great area long term as well.


----------



## CanOz

Isn't it usually expressed EUR/USD?

If so does that mean its a slam dunk short?


----------



## kid hustlr

Possibly.
You catch my drift on the concept tho


----------



## CanOz

Your not alone kid!


----------



## kid hustlr

Might land me a chat with traders interview


----------



## Wysiwyg

Many a blatherer have done.


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Might land me a chat with traders interview



Please explain?


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> Please explain?




Just a joke - no substance


----------



## notting

Which mind set are you trading?

Was last nights Wall Street sell off really because people are genuinely worried about China's stooge leader in North Korea - Fat Ugly Toadman (translated into English)? or was it more about this -



> There is a cruel irony in the fact that the *US bond market *gave up any lingering hope in the "Trump trade" - the dream that US President Donald Trump would move quickly to implement policies that would boost US growth and inflation - on exactly the same day as the White House scrapped the *"Dreamers" *immigration program.
> 
> Overnight, the Trump administration further antagonised the US business community - and* particularly the tech sector* - by announcing it would begin to unwind the "dreamers" program which allows immigrants who arrived in the US illegally as children, to remain and work in the country.
> 
> Meanwhile, the US *bond market has lost its optimism* that the Trump administration will introduce policies - such as tax cuts and a big lift in infrastructure spending - that would boost economic activity, and fire up inflation, causing bond yields to rise.


----------



## Joules MM1

stuff
from people who do ...stuff

$SPX #sentiment


----------



## Joules MM1

and this bit of stuff too


----------



## notting

Was watching some pale old c^nt on CNBC, telling us that we were only half way through the secular bull market and we were just starting out on the biggest leg.  Well f^ck me!
Think I'll tun my screen upside down to make me feel like buy en something


----------



## notting

The reality of BREXIT begins to take hold.
'Well, we managed our way through avoiding telling the British electorate, who voted for this, that they have set Britain back about a century.  Now, how to frame a catastrophe and try to look like a pig can fly.'


----------



## Wysiwyg

Break out all time high on the FTSE 100 then?


----------



## Wysiwyg

DOW leaping ahead in 1000 point blocks in this perma (excluding Aust.) bull market. 24000 points next target when the fat cats get their tax break and employ more people for the masses to pay off the national debt. There isn't any giving without some taking elsewhere.


----------



## daytradeprofit

*Is this the next move in the markets, a hint of a stock that has already done so*
*focus on the stock that may be the one that shows us what will happen next….and this stock is AXP – American express - just look and tell me what you see 
above is the DOW JONES  and below is AMERICAN EXPRESS so far so good right
Well, why am I showing you those charts - because if we will take the trends in AXP we can see in 2015 the fast collapse from 96$ +_ price area to almost 50$ 
my guess is that the same move will appear on the DOW JONES when the decline will come, but first, we need to wait for some clues or evidence before start making shorts, for my opinion Right now I think in terms of risk and chance of investing long in the markets The potency is limited
	

		
			
		

		
	





*


----------



## Joules MM1

hey, it could be.....err......boolish

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/924211122768621569


----------



## notting

A little pale around the gills -


----------



## CanOz

Heads up on the dax, could be an open drive play brewing. The es is up 3.5 points since this am and the dax has been consolidating....it could gap open and either test then resume, or range then continue after the cash opens....I'll be knee deep in kids most likely


----------



## Joules MM1

more stuff

rofl 1,000 dollar bagel "Another-Stock-Market-Sentiment-Measure-Hits-a-17-Year-Extreme?"

http://www.elliottwave.com/en/Asset...reme?sc_camp=35B8054D98B84555A2326B9F058BC909


----------



## CanOz

Parabolic move on the nikkei then reversed it....wtf


----------



## CanOz

There are some interesting bearish patterns about, especially among the European indices....last week's declines were pretty significant in the velocity in which they sold off. The vix has also put in a bullish candle after the inverted hammer that has been a bearish sign in the past....what's brewing in Europe? Long vix might be the go...tad expensive. The bund looks set to continue a decline as well...volatility might be here for a while yet!


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> DOW leaping ahead in 1000 point blocks in this perma (excluding Aust.) bull market. 24000 points next target when the fat cats get their tax break and employ more people for the masses to pay off the national debt. There isn't any giving without some taking elsewhere.



Dow 24000 passed. Looks likt U.S. markets are getting bullish.


----------



## notting

Last nights tax bill euphoria turns out to be a premature ejaculation

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/30/gop-sen-cornyn-trigger-proposal-in-unworkable.html


----------



## Joules MM1

trading term of the day

in like Flynn


----------



## notting

I declare the US Republican Party officially - INSANE -



> "Sadly, the whole thing looks like a prelude to a financial crisis and an economic downturn that could relegate America to long, long years of economic stagnation and serious security challenges."




https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/03/gop-tax-plan-is-a-gift-to-china-japan-and-germany--commentary.html


----------



## Joules MM1

futures ripped in some gaps ...now the (US)ABC debacle is over $spx likely another altime high cycle then retracement time fill the gaps while knobs go on hols

Goldwater rule of thumb for dumb-dumb is probably about to be thrown out followed by the big baby in the bigly white house bath 

"Trump says that the FBI's reputation is in 'tatters' "
i know tatters, no ones as good at being in tatters.....
not like taiters..no theyre irish. sad .....but, folks, when you need someone to be in tatters i'm your man...i am tatter-man .....no cape just capers.....haters hate capers..
and if Flynn squeals he'll be a rat, a ratter-tat-tat ..see how i did that, folks......hello...anyone


----------



## notting




----------



## Wysiwyg

> Meanwhile, we are piling on net foreign liabilities — $7.93 trillion at the latest count — failing to even out the playing field for American companies in the key world markets and tolerating trade imbalances that are killing our exporters and import-competing industries.
> 
> That's not what Trump promised. Remember, *he pledged to fight for lower trade deficits and a more liberal access to foreign markets by American exporters. That would have been a better and a more sustainable economic stimulus than the destabilizing and deficit-financed tax cuts the U.S. can't afford.* But that's not what we are seeing.



Gee whiz. All that pent up anxiety being manifested in the market. Show - Me - The - Money.


----------



## notting

Wysiwyg said:


> Gee whiz. All that pent up anxiety being manifested in the market. Show - Me - The - Money.




Here tis ----  http://www.usdebtclock.org/


----------



## notting

notting said:


> The reality of BREXIT begins to take hold.
> 'Well, we managed our way through avoiding telling the British electorate, who voted for this, that they have set Britain back about a century.  Now, how to frame a catastrophe and try to look like a pig can fly.'
> 
> View attachment 73079





Pig still No Fly!  Why?


----------



## Joules MM1

tiny generics say tiny pullback/rotation en mode

4th v 14th $nyad




brokers




$spxadp


----------



## Joules MM1

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gf...dex.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

the above has some interactive stuff....


----------



## Joules MM1

hemline index says markets too high?
how about skyscraper index ?
art sales index say markets too high?

nope, there's a new kid in town

selficinno indicator

seriously ....no, really


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Isn't this weird?


----------



## helpme

This year, international markets performed wonderfully well. In fact, I would say Australian stock market was the laggard. Hope 2018 will be a better one for Australia.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> Dow 24000 passed. Looks likt U.S. markets are getting bullish.



25000 very close. 1000 points per month is good going.


----------



## greggles

Wysiwyg said:


> 25000 very close. 1000 points per month is good going.



...and it has happened. DJIA closed at 25,075.13. This rally continues to legs in spite of its apparent irrational nature. Interesting times.


----------



## notting

When trump made the tax announcement and signed the bill into law with a little speech.  He repeated the same speech twice on live television and global media that was broadcast around the world.
At the time I though it was odd.
But figured that perhaps he was using the marketing technique of saying something enough times and people would believe it.  But it was still odd because there was no real thing he was selling it was a bit jumbled and more explanatory about the timing and so on.  Not really a sell and the deal was already done anyway- no need to sell it again.

However, the Fire and Fury book has lead me to believe that Trump has dementia!
The context of the speech wasn't really selling anything it was just showing off the formality.
So he was literally repeating the same speech, not recalling he had already said it!!  So the Fire and Fury book is accurate, if you want to know what is going on with his in coherency and repeating himself in meetings.
Trump is being managed, no wonder he is playing so much golf, they are working around him!!


----------



## Logique

Not my words, but if Trump is crazy, let's hope it's contagious. Best President since Reagan.


----------



## notting

*Some leadership - *
*





Thankss Lloyd.*
*It's getting a bit hard to see however.*


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> 25000 very close. 1000 points per month is good going.



Dow closing in on 26000. 1000 points in 8 days. Anyone dare shorting greater than a 5 min. time frame.


----------



## Joules MM1

akka dax


----------



## Joules MM1

ftse not arguing with the 144 week cycle, in sell mode


----------



## Joules MM1

France cac is on a 144 week cycle this week same ftse, dax over by 2


----------



## notting

Excessive use of ETFS has likely lead to over leverage in that part of the market.
Velocity Shares XIV which is an ETF that inversely tracks the VIX, with leverage. collapsed after hours in the US.
When markets are volatile ETF redemption's get a little more tricky as their balancing acts are larger and easier to identify by traders looking to front run them and hence make their losses excessive.
This seemed evident last night about an hour before the close when when the market selling flew from 900 points on the DOW to 1600 and back again in about the space of 10 minutes -The rush to redeem.
Hilarious to watch!
Finally we see the issue with ETF excesses and a market made by central banks.
It's all up to Bitcoin to save the markets now!


----------



## notting

The hour upon us -


----------



## notting

I had a short ready on Tesla at 361 it went to 360 before heading down to 315 where it is now.






Teach me to bet against the Lord our Savior.


----------



## kid hustlr

I would argue the Australian market is in for more pain or at least some sideways movement however it's not farfetched to suggest the low is in for the USA. Time will tell but key levels + high volume + daily bullishness atleast lends hope to the bulls that the dream ain't over


----------



## notting

Yep and this week it went down 1600 points in a single intraday spanking!
And again the Dow dropped 1,032 points Thursday and the average posted its *worst point drop in history on Monday,* closing 1,175 points lower.
Monday's decline of 4.62 percent was also its worst daily percentage drop since Aug. 10, 2011, when it also fell 4.62 percent.
*Before this weeks performance, Trump boasted about the stock market once every 35 hours*

Go Donny Little Hands, can't wait to see what happens next.................


----------



## CanOz

I reckon we might trade around and try to fill in some value area between 25253 and 23100 on the Dow....YM that is.... on the ES 2726 to 2531


----------



## noirua

Probably best to do a sector analysis whether that be America, Europe, Japan, China etc.,
Changing methods of trading to smaller caps is one to look at or even the micro caps if solid enough in assets and cash requirements. Particularly mining, graphene, and the newly arrived gold and silver backed cryptos linked to Bank debit cards and similar.
Of course a micro-cap in the states is around $50m to $200m and a lot less in other domains.


----------



## Modest

FTSE looking a little sick, dare I say she might puke tonight. I’m positioned appropriately with a tight leash. Show me the money.


----------



## notting

Footsy can be a little contrarian, to the rest of Euro because of it's defensive nature weighting kind of stocks.


----------



## peter2

US holiday and all the desperates are watching the DAX and FTSE. Hmm. 
The DAX puked and the FTSE has been sympathetic.


----------



## Modest

Modest said:


> FTSE looking a little sick, dare I say she might puke tonight. I’m positioned appropriately with a tight leash. Show me the money.




She puked alright, good start to the week.


----------



## Modest

$ES 

Couldn't resist going long and heavy here. Target 2734 ish going into the open. 

ES.....


----------



## Modest

Good girl ES






Scaling out of size here


----------



## peter2

Modest said:


> $ES
> 
> Couldn't resist going long and heavy here. Target 2734 ish going into the open.




Good one, target hit.


----------



## Modest

Cheers, I am all scaled out of the long into the target. I wonder what "they" are going to do with it now? Can someone say..... Dump


----------



## notting

Yes this really happened -
SNAP took a 10% hit last night because this bimbo of kardashian fame tweeted this-







I think I'm starting to hate America. Superficial overconfident celebrity loving tools.
The chicks over there are getting ars implants so their butts are bigger like that fat arse - Kim.  A big arse is the worst thing on earth.






Noooooooooo!

Any way, back to SNAP. Buy the F out of it, it could do a FB from here 17.51


----------



## notting

Back on Trend.  A stupidly strong trend at that, it's a very average correction of the ridiculousness that kicked in at the start of the year so far.
THAT'S ALL!


----------



## notting

With metal more expensive and North Korea pretending to befriend Trump whilst he has an aircraft carrier docked in Vietnam, maybe shorting some US defense stocks would be a good short term trade!!!!
Remembering of course that the military has just received a big budget boost from Trump, surely however, that is priced in at this point!






Double top?


----------



## notting

This time it closes below the trend.
Some people argue that the 200 day moving average is not important because it often shows no resistance.  
I beg to differ.  
When it breaks, it tends to stay broken for some time so that is an indicator worth watching.
Will it break this time.  It looks like it will all things considered.


----------



## kid hustlr

S&P 500 For Reference

It's just an indicator but it has held pretty strong in the past. Classic Self Fulfilling Prophecy


----------



## Joules MM1

the original members of the Band of Ardent Bears led by Doc Bob are at it...again

https://www.elliottwave.com/Stocks/...rown?sc_camp=0224DB592825464C88A4B91F1C18C2FA

"R-I-P-Bull-Market-What-the-Throw-Over-Has-Overthrown"


----------



## Joules MM1

inside


----------



## CanOz

Some DAX context....


----------



## CanOz

ES Context....


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> ES Context....
> 
> 
> View attachment 86857
> View attachment 86856




the possibilities are as good if not better of the $es making new 
altime high on strong chopped thru-a-cheese-grater distribution and THEN coming back to fill that gap .....how say you ?


----------



## CanOz

Really tough call given we're dealing with an un-confident market that's dealing with a very unpredictable, but yet ever influential "tweeter"...basically. 

All i can say for certain is that the low at 2552 and the more recent tweezer top high at 2672 are in play and worthy of decent attention.


----------



## CanOz

If the FDAX can spend some time staging at the current levels, there is a very good possibility of a decent break higher, with decent risk reward available. Mondays being rotational days typically...the break may happen O/N or the following session, if the upper ranges are respected.


----------



## notting

(unrelated to other posts above IMHO)

No.  No you're wrong. 

It's not bitcoin -






It's the DOW.


----------



## CanOz

As a heads up, oil is getting a good bid...reckon its in anticipation of a reciprocal attack on on Syria. I've got long orders on gold, considering the Bund as well,  but i'm staying out of equities until that threat is better understood.


----------



## notting

Oooh.  I shorted a few goldies today thinking things might settle down with Xi.
Wasn't thinking much about the Putin put.  Probably should have waited till they nuke that cutn in Syria.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Bear flag forming on CL.  WIll take it to the trendline.


----------



## CanOz

Usually these direct advances fail....lets see. It it accepts value just below then then its going higher...


----------



## Joules MM1

another bear!
#spx
for market students this is worth watching for the data points:
http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2018/04/18-04-13-Webinar-Invitation-EWI.php


----------



## Joules MM1

1 Draghi speaks
2 zero hedge in rapid rabid fire tweeting mode
3 = meh! ..nothing to see here


----------



## Joules MM1

topped out? hoonoze...






pysho .....undiscovered version of psycho .....


----------



## notting

Better than bitcoin - 

I actually thought this was an opportunity and bought some given how appalling the timing was, trade wars and China tanking, for the float and that they halved the valuation for the float.  Even though it's probably a long term rip off or Apple is still cheap as chips! 

Co-founded by billionaire Lei Jun, Xiaomi has a market value of about $50 billion, a far cry from the $100 billion touted last year. The 1.2 percent slide at the close of trade is the worst first-day performance for a $1 billion-plus Hong Kong IPO since 2015.

"After raising $4.7 billion in an initial public offering selling stock at the bottom of its marketed range, the first day of trade saw the shares slide as much as 6 percent in Hong Kong. The IPO had been touted as the culmination of a remarkable turnaround and the starting gun for a clutch of mega debuts but it came amid sliding markets and an escalating trade spat between the U.S. and China."







Going alright so far - 1810 HK


----------



## CanOz

Possibilities for the FDAX are looking tasty from a volatility POV.....Monthly Dax H&S and then the Intraday level


----------



## CanOz

The S&P500...bear wedge monthly


----------



## CanOz

The NQ might outperform if we get another leg up or sideways on the other indices before a major correction....3 drives to a high?


----------



## CanOz

The most obvious thing that stands out to me regarding these US charts is the thin volume at these tops....These ranges need to be filler out before we can go much higher....we need new buyers to keep buying.


----------



## scholesy

Looks to me that there needs to be a lengthy period of horizontal consolidation before any up move can begin.


----------



## notting

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/16/trading-nation-stocks-in-rally-mode.html


----------



## CanOz

Do or die for the FDAX...bullish above 12850


----------



## CanOz

I guess its die....most of the decline in US hours. H&S retest complete.


----------



## notting

Early polling shows Dems are going to take back the house.
The US$ immediately sells off against the basket of currencies.
US Futures sell off also.
All week people have been expecting this anyway and it doesn't make much difference because Trump has pushed through all the major things he could prior and there is bipartisan support of the stance against China!!
If the house tries to take back some tax, Trump will veto it.
So nothing changes, even if the Dems were to take back the senate as well, which is highly improbable and not anticipated.


----------



## Joules MM1

observation
i trade off these a lot.....if nothing else, when pos'd the opposite direction, these can be used for risk


----------



## daytradeprofit

Time to evaluate the situation
http://www.daytrade-profit.com/2019/01/is-it-time-for-change-in-markets-to.html


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 91147
> 
> 
> observation
> i trade off these a lot.....if nothing else, when pos'd the opposite direction, these can be used for risk




and we check what's in the oven, et voila!






#caveats


----------



## MARKETWINNER

https://www.sharecast.com/news/market-report-close/london-close--3828773.html
London close: Stocks end week on an up note, even as pound falls back


----------



## noirua

A bid for Red Rock Resources LSE:RRR is an increasing possibility at the low market cap compared to the guestimate value of Musonoi, DRC alone. There are a lot of options and warrants though the 1.4p 30 April 2019 warrants ran out of time. Recent warrants created were at 0.75p, and CLNs at 0.8p.
Any bid, if it ever arrives, is likely to be lower than expected but probably in the range 1.5p to 3p a share. A bidder is likely to retain the company to use tax losses and sell off all other quoted assets, Jupiter, Para etc., except Migori, Kenya.
A clever bidder could make a move very soon. Katanga are favourites as part of Glencore but at the same time are known to be under-bidders.

A direct bid for Red Rock would give Katanga a controlling 50.1% interest in Musonoi. A bid for Musonoi alone would prove much more expensive. AB has noted in his broadcast that the company has received interest which would surprise.

RRR liabilities would be lower on CLNs being converted on a bid arriving.

AREA 1 PE4962: -- Formation of a joint venture company between Red Rock, BRO and local partner Vumilia Pendeza SA in the proportions 50.1%: 29.9%: 20%. https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/l...rces-plc-Cobalt-Copper-Joint-Venture/78743093



http://www.rrrplc.com

Red Rock Resources Area 1 is sandwiched between Glencore's Areas 5 and 2 with Gecamine's area 6 below. Likely interested parties are Katanga ( Glencore), ERG Metalcol, Ruashi Mining ( Jinchuan Group) and Kolwezi Copper Mines ( Zijin Mining Group ).

Similar adjoined area: AREA 5: Katanga, subsidiary of Glencore resource. T17
Http://www.katangamining.com/media/news-releases/2017/2017-02-1b.aspx
Https://miningdataonline.com/property/1070/Musonoi-Project.aspx
Proved and probable resource 11.3mt 3.65% Cu --- Measured and Indicated 13.6mt 3.89%Cu


----------



## notting

The thing that should be on everyone's mind is the fact that Trumps tax cuts have caused* the US deficit to skyrocket and even the author of GOP tax bill admits cuts 'may' not pay for themselves*
They are no where near being made up for by growth which was what was supposed to happen.

The US economy is showing signs of a slowdown in fact.
Trump has effectively pulled growth from a potential second term into his first term in order to be re-elected on the basis of first term economic performance!

Thus even if Trump gets re-elected, which will be a short term relief for the markets, he cannot pull on the next term and will have no incentive to!  In fact he will have all the incentive in the world to act on his world vision rather than economic performance.

If a democrat gets in they will surely cut back on the tax cuts as they should but the economy will have slowed and a democrat being elected will in itself gut the market.  This is only year off.
We are in an epic euphoric value trap moment before a plunge.


----------



## Logique

The expected US Fed rate cut will make things interesting!







> By Matthew Lynn, SMH: July 27, 2019  -OPINION: https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...-market-party-gets-rowdy-20190727-p52bbf.html
> *Fed cut will add vodka to the punch just as market party gets rowdy*
> ...The last time the Fed cut rates with the equity markets at an all-time high was way back in January 1996...And what happened? After *each and every one* of those 17 rate cuts, the market was* higher a year later*, and often very significantly so...Overall, the median gain in the year after the Fed pumped up a bull market with extra rate cuts was 10 per cent, and the market has *never fallen*...


----------



## notting

With US budget deficits exploding catalysed by the lunatic tax cuts implemented by Trump this one is going to be hard to see how they come back from.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/...actor-in-the-yield-curve-inversion-roach.html


----------



## notting

*QUOTE OF THE CENTURY - '*what happens when there is a bubble in the risk free asset class'
LISTEN TO THIS -


----------



## notting

Then balance it up with this -


----------



## notting

The hot spot


----------



## Joules MM1

$hsi, breaks prior ratios price lengths from a vpoc zone

no more easy supply

nice big up impulsive bid day, rotation is in

blood in the streets etc etc


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Another 20 points to fill a whole collection of upside targets.  Then down.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

All time highs.  A break below 3023 would see a harsh sell off, but I can't see it happening at the moment.


----------



## barney

FTSE is off it's face tonight …… Markets are not making sense …. time to get vigilant


----------



## Joules MM1

!


----------



## lindsayf

Thanks..I couldnt find anything obvious on line to explain the missing feeds.  Couldnt even get into the Eurex website.


----------



## Joules MM1

"McMillan Analysis Corporation

For now, $SPX has tentatively found support near 4435. But that only occurred this week, so it is hardly seasoned or tested. The first truly tested support area is still the major one at 4370, and that is not too great of a distance from today's levels. As long as the support at 4370 holds, the bulls are still in control although it might not completely seem like it right now. A violation of that support area, though, would change things in a negative manner.

Equity-only put-call ratios are split in their outlook at the present time. The standard ratio (Figure 2) has been declining and thus has been on a buy signal since early August. It just dropped to a new relative low, so that buy signal has strengthened. The weighted ratio (Figure 3), on the other hand, is meandering sideways and recently has been rising (hence it is marked with an "S" for "sell").

Breadth continues to struggle. *Both breadth oscillators are on sell signals at the current time.* The "stocks only" breadth oscillator fell into deeply oversold territory, which is a precursor to a buy signal, but that buy signal has not been forthcoming.

The $VIX "spike peak" buy signal of August 19th remains in place. As one can see from the chart in Figure 4, $VIX has risen a bit, but there is definitely no spike. The trend of $VIX remains friendly to stocks as well.

In summary, we will retain a bullish attitude as long as $SPX remains above support. However, if support is broken, we will begin to accumulate put bear spreads. "

About Lawrence G. McMillan​
Founder Lawrence G. McMillan has over 35 years of experience trading options and is also well known for his educational.....
charts: optionstrategist.com/weekly-charts?goal=0_2f928c56ef-35331f10f7-394569658&mc_cid=35331f10f7&mc_eid=c5d2a13444
​


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> "McMillan Analysis Corporation
> 
> 
> Breadth continues to struggle. *Both breadth oscillators are on sell signals at the current time.* The "stocks only" breadth oscillator fell into deeply oversold territory, which is a precursor to a buy signal, but that buy signal has not been forthcoming.
> 
> ​











						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




as noted in the Trading the XJO with cfd, signal was there - when the channel breaks




__





						Trading the XJO with CFDs
					

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3OWbsvMk/  still a lot of upside price length to the channel roof  cfd's all clients regularly running around 20-30% sell to open positions, assuming that's not the same meat each week  insert Larsen man giggle




					www.aussiestockforums.com


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




in the above chart:
market trivia, $NYA and $DJT spirt into a high at 3 x Sept 2000 high > Oct 2007 high = Nov 2021 highs








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




(altime peak high x altime peak high = altime peak high) with transports peaking same time

complete tosh maybe, just thought, oh, trans peak at the same time on a  weak-az set of substandard breadth numbers hoodathunk


----------



## Joules MM1

> Stocks have been down and volatile for the last week -- an unusual time of the year for that to be the case. The new omicron COVID variant is being blamed, but that was merely the catalyst for unleashing a lot of selling that has been building up. Market internals have been deteriorating for a long time.
> 
> The $SPX chart turned negative when it broke below 4630 on November 26th. In order for that chart to return to bullish status, $SPX is going to have to break out to new all-time highs (or work much lower and build a base). As a result, the entire area from 4630 up to the 4705 level is resistance. There is support in the 4500 - 4550 area. If that support gives way, there really isn't another support area until 4300, because the market rose so swiftly in October that it did not do any backing and filling to create support.
> 
> The equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals and are racing higher on their charts, as put buying has picked up dramatically. These ratios will remain on sell signals as long as they continue to rise. Judging by the fact that previous buy signals this year (see Figures 2 and 3) have come at much higher levels, one would presume that these ratios need to get quite a bit higher before one can begin thinking about buy signals.
> 
> The market internals have been poor, and one might say they've been poor since about mid-June. One example is the put- call ratio signals above. But an even more glaring internal indicator failure is market breadth. Our breadth oscillators remain on sell signals, although they did drop into deeply oversold territory. But oversold does not mean buy.
> 
> This in the stock market decline has seen $VIX explode to the upside, and that has set off some reactions. First and foremost, the trend of $VIX is now higher. That is, the 20-day Moving Average of $VIX and also $VIX itself are both above the 200-day MA. That defines an uptrend for $VIX, in our terminology, and issues an intermediate-term sell signal. This crossover is marked on the chart in Figure 4 with a green circle.
> 
> There is one bullish thing that doesn't seem to be working too well: the usually seasonal pattern between Thanksgiving and the beginning of the new year. There is still time for this seasonal pattern to play out, although this is certainly its worst start ever.
> 
> In summary, we are no longer recommending a "core" long position



Lawrence G McMillan @optstrategist email


----------



## mullokintyre

From  Wall Street on Parade


> Last Friday, December 3, 2021, the Nasdaq stock market recorded 12 stocks setting new 52-week highs in contrast to 585 stocks setting new 52-week lows. Let that sink in for a moment. There were 48.75 times more stocks setting new 52-week lows than were reaching new 52-week highs. That extremely negative reading of market breadth came on a day when the Nasdaq closed down just 1.9 percent. Imagine what the breadth would have looked like if the percentage decline on the overall market had been worse.
> 
> Yesterday, Monday, December 6, with the Nasdaq closing _up_ 139.6 points, the new 52-week lows still swamped highs, with 137 new lows and only 53 new highs.
> 
> Unfortunately, Americans never see headlines in their newspapers about the deterioration in the stock market’s underpinnings. What they do see on a regular basis are headlines about the market setting a new high. This has the intended effect for Wall Street manipulators of sucking the little guy in at market tops as the smart guys “distribute” their inflated shares to the less informed.
> 
> The one thing that will be different when this giant bubble finally pops, is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, unlike former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, will not be able to tell Congress that nobody could have seen this market crash coming. There is now a loud chorus of veteran Wall Street investors who are calling this the biggest bubble of all time, or words to that effect.
> 
> Just last week, Charlie Munger, the 97-year old Vice Chairman of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, stated at an Australian investment conference that he considers “this era even crazier than the dotcom era.”
> 
> In a “Wall Street Week” interview on November 12, 83-year-old Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and Investment Strategist of the investment firm Grantham Mayo van Otterloo & Co. (GMO), stated that “This is more extreme in scale and size of market cap than anything that occurred in 1929, even adjusted for the size of the economy.”



The boom seems to be concentrated in such a few areas. Just  on that last comment that compared current conditions to 1929,
In todays  Daily Pfenning, Chuck Butler pointed out that 


> Did you know that the U.S. Treasury’s long bond, the 30year is now
> trading at a yield that’s lower than it was during the great recession? And that’s with inflation on the rise, and a disruption of the supply chain, and a Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel that’s slower than molasses in responding to these problems… It just tears me up that the 30 year yield is paying just 1.68%, which by the way is less than the 20 year bond’s 1.71% yield… What’s up with that? There’s so much yield manipulation going on in Bonds from the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel, that the bond boys can’t even get a normal yield curve in place!



These are strange times indeed.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever

*** Did you know that the U.S. Treasury’s long bond, the 30year is now
trading at a yield that’s lower than it was during the great recession? And that’s with inflation on the rise, and a disruption of the supply chain, and a Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel that’s slower than molasses in responding to these problems… It just tears me up that the 30 year yield is paying just 1.68%, which by the way is less than the 20 year bond’s 1.71% yield… What’s up with that? There’s so much yield manipulation going on in Bonds from the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel, that the bond boys can’t even get a normal yield curve in place!  ***

did they ever launch the 100 year bonds ( US or EU   Treasuries ) ??

 i choked with laughter  when i saw that suggestion , and knew the global economy was really messed up


----------



## Joules MM1

divs4ever said:


> *** Did you know that the U.S. Treasury’s long bond, the 30year is now
> trading at a yield that’s lower than it was during the great recession? And that’s with inflation on the rise, and a disruption of the supply chain, and a Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel that’s slower than molasses in responding to these problems… It just tears me up that the 30 year yield is paying just 1.68%, which by the way is less than the 20 year bond’s 1.71% yield… What’s up with that? There’s so much yield manipulation going on in Bonds from the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel, that the bond boys can’t even get a normal yield curve in place!  ***
> 
> did they ever launch the 100 year bonds ( US or EU   Treasuries ) ??
> 
> i choked with laughter  when i saw that suggestion , and knew the global economy was really messed up




bonds are as bonkers as every other liquified instrument with a fraction of the yield/cap gain ratio


----------



## Joules MM1

> @profgalloway concentration of the 5 largest stocks in the S&P 500





			https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGQnSegXoAoMKmI?format=jpg&name=medium
		


what happened in 1964 thru 1974 to the $SPX ?








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




what this does do is highlight the probability of a solid snap back, probably short-lived due the credit debt across the whole planet


----------



## Joules MM1

..and







> @charliebilello S&P 500 closes at an all-time high for the 67th time this year. Only 1995 has had more all-time highs in a single calendar year. $SPX



$spx still saw another 5 years of consecutive altime highs into the 2000 > 2009 rendition of the 64 > 74 market


----------



## Joules MM1

from @LizAnnSonders



> S&P 500’s real earnings yield has plunged to a new record low of -2.8%


----------



## JohnDe

There is just too much uncertainty across the globe, and too many false starts is causing investment anxiety and fatigue.

China: a few countries trying to sort out the China issue is not going to work, instead it is causing investor caution across the globe.

World governments need to bring back confidence. Decide what the China plan is and let everyone know, any decision is better than the current wait and see.


----------



## Joules MM1

pretty sure that's the ghost of xmas past .....like year 2000 .....cough
👻


----------



## mullokintyre

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 134334
> 
> 
> 👻



Its probably someone from the Plunge Protection Team making sure all that work is worthwhile!
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

So the Fed has seen the writing on the wall and announced an acceleration of tapering as Inflation expectations just keep going up.
From Zero Hedge 
Last night FOMS meeting  came out with 


> The Fed statement and economic projections saw the central bank *double the pace of its asset purchase tapering* to USD 30bln per month (consisting of USD 20bln Treasuries, USD 10bln MBS – this will be doubled again in January, with similar reductions likely be appropriate each month thereafter), which puts it *on course to conclude asset purchases by March, from the prior landing zone of around June*, although this could be adjusted if warranted.
> Its updated projections *now see three rate hikes in 2022*, revising up its view from one hike pencilled in at the September FOMC (recall that September, the Committee was essentially split on the potential need for a second 2022 rate hike); longer-term, it has left its terminal rate view unchanged, however.
> *Inflation forecasts were revised up* to 2.6% for headline PCE by the end of next year (prev. 2.2%), while the core measure is seen at 2.7% by end 2022 (prev. 2.3%).
> On the labour market, the Fed sees *the jobless rate return to the 3.5% mark next year (prev. saw 3.8%), where it is likely to stay over its forecast horizon*.
> The bottom line is that this was *largely in line with what the market was expecting* (accelerating taper, raising inflation forecasts, seeing continual progress in the labour market), where the Fed sees the economy continuing to grow (its growth view for next year was revised up, although 2023’s pace was revised down a touch).
> ​



And from Kitco


> (Kitco News) - Gold prices remain under pressure, as the Federal Reserve further reduces the level of bonds it purchases every month and continues to signal three rate hike next year.
> Following its monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve as expected left interest rates unchanged at the zero-bound range; however, the central bank continues to adjust its monetary policy as it acknowledges growing inflation pressures.
> “In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in January, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $40 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $20 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook,” the monetary policy statement said.
> The gold market continues to struggle as the Federal Reserve moves closer to pivoting on interest rates. February gold futures last traded at $1,759.80, down 0.63% on the day.
> According to some market analysts, gold investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate projections, also known as the dot plots, which have jumped from September’s forecast. The committee sees the Fed funds rate at 0.9% next year, indicating at least three rate hikes, up sharply from September’s forecast for interest rates at 0.3%.
> The U.S. central bank also sees interest rates moving to 1.6% in 2023 and rising to 2.1% by 2024, up from the previous forecasts of 1.0% and 1.8% respectively.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Federal Reserve sees slightly slower growth prospects in the next few years as the economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal Reserve sees the U.S. gross domestic product growing 5.5% this year, down from 5.9% forecasted in September. Economic growth next year has been revised higher to 4.0%, up from the previous projection of 3.8%. The economy is expected to grow 2.2% in 2023, up down from September’s estimate of 2.5%. The economy is expected to grow 2.0% in 2024, unchanged from the previous forecast.
> While the Fed continues to see positive economic growth it did highlight that the COVID-19 pandemic remains a concern.
> “The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus,” the central bank said in its monetary policy statement.
> The U.S. central bank sees a slightly stronger labor market in the next two years. For 2021 the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.3%, compared to September’s forecast of 4.8%. For next year, the unemployment rate is expected to be 3.5%, down from previous forecast of 3.5%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.5% through 2024, unchanged from the previous projections.
> While the Federal Reserve has acknowledged that inflation has proved to be stickier than expected, the committee doesn’t expect it to be a major issue after this year.
> 
> The projections show that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) is expected to rise 5.3% in 2021, up from September’s estimate of 4.2%. However, inflation pressures are expected to level off in 2022, rising 2.6%, up from September’s estimate of 2.2%. In 2023, the Federal Reserve expects inflation to rise to 2.3%, up from the previous estimate of 2.2%. By 2024 consumer prices pressure are expected to rise to 2.1%.
> Core inflation expectations, which strip out volatile food and energy prices, are expected to rise 4.4% this year, up compared to the previous estimate of 3.7%. Next year, core inflation is expected to rose 2.7%, compared to September’s forecast of 2.3%. In 2023, inflation is expected to rise to 2.3%, up from the previous estimate of 2.2%. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.1% in 2024.
> Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the Federal Reserve appears to be slightly more hawkish than expected; The U.K-based research firm noted that it sees three rate hikes next year but Pearce added that it is unlikely that the central bank will raise interest rates before June.
> “Overall, the Fed has effectively abandoned its average inflation targeting framework and is moving fast to get policy back to a more neutral setting, which reduces the risks that inflation remains meaningfully above 2% over the longer term,” he said.



I keep scratching me head.
The market response to an admission that inflation is  here to stay and that there will be rate hikes was:
1. Gold and Silver got hammered.
2. The AUD rose nearly 1% against the USD.
3. The US stock market was largely flat.
In years gone by, any of the above would be strange, but all three?
Economic theory 101  seems to be completely thrown out the window.
mic


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> A bid for Red Rock Resources LSE:RRR is an increasing possibility at the low market cap compared to the guestimate value of Musonoi, DRC alone. There are a lot of options and warrants though the 1.4p 30 April 2019 warrants ran out of time. Recent warrants created were at 0.75p, and CLNs at 0.8p.
> Any bid, if it ever arrives, is likely to be lower than expected but probably in the range 1.5p to 3p a share. A bidder is likely to retain the company to use tax losses and sell off all other quoted assets, Jupiter, Para etc., except Migori, Kenya.
> A clever bidder could make a move very soon. Katanga are favourites as part of Glencore but at the same time are known to be under-bidders.
> 
> A direct bid for Red Rock would give Katanga a controlling 50.1% interest in Musonoi. A bid for Musonoi alone would prove much more expensive. AB has noted in his broadcast that the company has received interest which would surprise.
> 
> RRR liabilities would be lower on CLNs being converted on a bid arriving.
> 
> AREA 1 PE4962: -- Formation of a joint venture company between Red Rock, BRO and local partner Vumilia Pendeza SA in the proportions 50.1%: 29.9%: 20%. https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/l...rces-plc-Cobalt-Copper-Joint-Venture/78743093
> View attachment 110123
> http://www.rrrplc.com
> 
> Red Rock Resources Area 1 is sandwiched between Glencore's Areas 5 and 2 with Gecamine's area 6 below. Likely interested parties are Katanga ( Glencore), ERG Metalcol, Ruashi Mining ( Jinchuan Group) and Kolwezi Copper Mines ( Zijin Mining Group ).
> 
> Similar adjoined area: AREA 5: Katanga, subsidiary of Glencore resource. T17
> Http://www.katangamining.com/media/news-releases/2017/2017-02-1b.aspx
> Https://miningdataonline.com/property/1070/Musonoi-Project.aspx
> Proved and probable resource 11.3mt 3.65% Cu --- Measured and Indicated 13.6mt 3.89%Cu



What happened to Musonoi Area 1 in DRC a former colony of France, 51% owned by Red Rock Resources LSE:RRR. Well, its partner VUP SA illegally sold the tenement to _Gécamines_  and took US$5 million as part payment. RRR obtained DRC court orders that VUP should pay US$4.505 million - not yet paid. _Gécamines_  are now in discussions with Red Rock's CEO Andrew Bell and his lawyers to obtain up to US$10.00 million or/and a replacement tenement - includes costs and compensation.




__





						IN BRIEF: Red Rock has second court victory against DRC partner
					

Red Rock Resources PLC - London-based gold-focused exploration company with projects in Africa ...




					www.morningstar.co.uk
				





			https://twitter.com/RRR_RedRock
		

The market cap is £4.5 million at 0.375p a share.

GECAMINES SA of DRC
	

	



__





						Gécamines SA
					





					www.gecamines.cd


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> What happened to Musonoi Area 1 in DRC a former colony of France, 51% owned by Red Rock Resources LSE:RRR. Well, its partner VUP SA illegally sold the tenement to _Gécamines_  and took US$5 million as part payment. RRR obtained DRC court orders that VUP should pay US$4.505 million - not yet paid. _Gécamines_  are now in discussions with Red Rock's CEO Andrew Bell and his lawyers to obtain up to US$10.00 million or/and a replacement tenement - includes costs and compensation.
> 
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> IN BRIEF: Red Rock has second court victory against DRC partner
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> Red Rock Resources PLC - London-based gold-focused exploration company with projects in Africa ...
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> www.morningstar.co.uk
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> https://twitter.com/RRR_RedRock
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> The market cap is £4.5 million at 0.375p a share.
> 
> GECAMINES SA of DRC
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> Gécamines SA
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> www.gecamines.cd




3:46 PM GMT · Jun 28, 2022


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## mullokintyre

Chuck Butler made some interesting obs this morning.
I have been watching the Fed's balance sheet for signs that they weren't holding to their promise of tapering it, and allowing bonds to mature without rollovers to new bonds... I shake my head in disgust there folks, because remember two weeks ago when I talked about how the yield on the 10-year was dropping, by large pieces every night, and that it had to be a very large entity buying large amounts to move yields like that? I questioned then that maybe the Fed wasn't tapering after all... 

So, June 1 was the start day of the tapering, right? Well, then maybe someone over at the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel might explain how the Balance Sheet grew larger the first two weeks of June! They just couldn't keep their hands out of the cookie jar, could they? I think that when the reports are issued for the last two weeks of June they will reflect a drop in the Balance Sheet... The reason I say that is because bond yields are rising again, which means bonds are getting sold... 

Remember when I was so adamant about the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel not wanting to raise rates too much, as the cost of servicing the debt would rise about tax receipts, and then they wouldn't be any money left over to pay for other things... Well, I found this on Twitter yesterday... " Interest expense on Government debt has already exceeded 30% this year" Tweet by: Sven Henrich

I know what some of you might be saying right now, "But Chuck, doesn't the interest that's paid get returned to the Treasury, so it's a zero sum game" To that I would say, yes, that's correct, for the bonds the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel hold, which accounted for 38% of the total at year end, so what we're talking about here is the remaining 62% of the total bonds that the Fed heads don't hold... That interest gets paid out of the coiffures and is never seen again! 

So who owns that other 62%, Foreign holders or Americans?
mick


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## noirua

Below is as I posted in the UK - parts deleted and added as and where not acceptable in Australia. The share mentioned is very high risk so beware - only for gamblers.

This might be a great heads up but nothing is certain with Red Rock Resources PLC RRR = so your decision. Listen carefully and advisory only to also check out: ( deleted as a rival website )
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-25jWgrZDs

The very basics are as follows and in the podcast above. Red Rock held 50.1% of Musonoi Area1 in DRC.
VUP SA held 49.9%.

VUP illegally sold Musonoi Area 1 for $20 million to a subsidiary of Gecamines.

RRR won two court cases in DRC and was awarded $4.505 million including compensation. This money has not yet been paid to Red Rock.

Gecamines subsidiary sold on the tenement for US$200 million. ( as mentioned in the podcast above ).

Red Rock with its legal advisors is in talks with Gecamines on compensation plus a replacement tenement.

Talks are ongoing in Kinshasa, DRC, and are in their second week.
Https://www.gecamines.cd/


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## qldfrog

noirua said:


> Below is as I posted in the UK - parts deleted and added as and where not acceptable in Australia. The share mentioned is very high risk so beware - only for gamblers.
> 
> This might be a great heads up but nothing is certain with Red Rock Resources PLC RRR = so your decision. Listen carefully and advisory only to also check out: ( deleted as a rival website )
> Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-25jWgrZDs
> 
> The very basics are as follows and in the podcast above. Red Rock held 50.1% of Musonoi Area1 in DRC.
> VUP SA held 49.9%.
> 
> VUP illegally sold Musonoi Area 1 for $20 million to a subsidiary of Gecamines.
> 
> RRR won two court cases in DRC and was awarded $4.505 million including compensation. This money has not yet been paid to Red Rock.
> 
> Gecamines subsidiary sold on the tenement for US$200 million. ( as mentioned in the podcast above ).
> 
> Red Rock with its legal advisors is in talks with Gecamines on compensation plus a replacement tenement.
> 
> Talks are ongoing in Kinshasa, DRC, and are in their second week.
> Https://www.gecamines.cd/
> 
> View attachment 143464​



Admire the smile of rhe local lawyers who are on for a life changing streak of 10y of unlimited fees, appeal commussions bribes and bribes on commissio,the real estate agents in Geneva are already lining up to settle their soon purchase of an hotel particulier😂
I do not hold nor eant to touch with any extended pole...


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## noirua

The last post on this one until there is an outcome. Previous posts may have been confusing so this should partially, at least, clarify the situation.

Https://youtu.be/M-25jWgrZDs

28 June 2022 -
Musonoi Area 1 is 5 minutes 18 seconds in and runs until 7 minutes 16 seconds.

This is now the key expected financial outcome for Red Rock Resources LSE:RRR.

The basics are that VUP SA sold Musonoi Area 1 back to Gecamines subsidiary illegally for US$20 million.

US$5 million has been paid to VUP SA.

Red Rock has been awarded US$4.05 million by DRC courts against VUP SA which includes costs.

Red Rock has been in talks with its lawyers for compensation for the illegal transaction with Gecamines for several weeks. Andrew Bell CEO talks in this podcast about hundred of millions of dollars lost by Red Rock.

The outcome should/will mean a payment to Red Rock plus a compensatory asset ( from podcast ).


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## noirua

qldfrog said:


> Admire the smile of rhe local lawyers who are on for a life changing streak of 10y of unlimited fees, appeal commussions bribes and bribes on commissio,the real estate agents in Geneva are already lining up to settle their soon purchase of an hotel particulier😂
> I do not hold nor eant to touch with any extended pole...



Chart of Red Rock Resources PLC LSE:RRR so far. News is yet to be released. Shares are up 57% so far - a gamble from here to riches or the poor house, your call!


			http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5ERRR&p=4&t=46&vol=1


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## frugal.rock

Hope it doesn't rub off...


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## peter2

You've been keeping this one from me. I had to read about this stock on the Fly blog. 

*HKD* (AMTD Digital Inc.) - Some low float Hong Kong stock listed on the Nasdaq. 
Opened 15 July at $13.00 and last closed at $1679 having traded at $2555 during the day 2 Aug.


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## peter2

This *HKD* story gets funnier by the minute.  There's another Nasdaq stock with the same stock code (*AMTD)* as the company name of *HKD* (AMTD Digital). The retail traders scrambling to buy *HKD* bid up the stock code *AMTD* by +400%. Needless to say it closed lower and will close much lower next day.  But it's funny.

_Edit: My US broker won't let me short AMTD. Currently  9.20._


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## moXJO

peter2 said:


> This *HKD* story gets funnier by the minute.  There's another Nasdaq stock with the same stock code (*AMTD)* as the company name of *HKD* (AMTD Digital). The retail traders scrambling to buy *HKD* bid up the stock code *AMTD* by +400%. Needless to say it closed lower and will close much lower next day.  But it's funny.
> 
> _Edit: My US broker won't let me short AMTD. Currently  9.20._



They are trying to blame wallstreet bets redditors. Pretty sure it was some kind of Insider trading/ manipulation.

WSB is angry about getting blamed


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## peter2

One of the deadbeat "meme" stock has gone for another run. *BBBY* from $5 to $27 in two weeks. Yes, *AMC* and *GME* have perked up a bit.


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## noirua

noirua said:


> Chart of Red Rock Resources PLC LSE:RRR so far. News is yet to be released. Shares are up 57% so far - a gamble from here to riches or the poor house, your call!
> 
> 
> http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5ERRR&p=4&t=46&vol=1



Following on from the latest podcast covering Red Rock Resources:


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## noirua

noirua said:


> Following on from the latest podcast covering Red Rock Resources:




There is much comment about this which came up at the start of the above podcast. Some say it breeches confidentiality before an RNS is announced.  There is a long delay before the above podcast starts - it can be shunted forward.


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## frugal.rock

Well, what's going on here?
Obviously, whilst dheriving, the horn is broken, so everyone must be using this company... 🤪


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## noirua

noirua said:


> There is much comment about this which came up at the start of the above podcast. Some say it breeches confidentiality before an RNS is announced.  There is a long delay before the above podcast starts - it can be shunted forward.
> View attachment 145950




This podcast is far more important than it appears. This share might make you a fortune but maybe not - your call.


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## frugal.rock

Has AT&T hit it's bottom?


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## frugal.rock




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## InsvestoBoy

picture me, a genius, deciding in early 2021 that a USD funding crisis was likely to occur

also picture me, a genius, deciding that I'd do my emerging markets exposure using VAE, because "Asia is less USD sensitive than LatAm/Emerging Europe and VAE is a few bps cheaper than VGE"...


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