# Continuation breakout thread



## Nortorious (1 November 2014)

Hi All,

I'm hoping to start a thread and will aim to maintain the content (post regularly) of stocks that have a continuation breakout.

My definition of a continuation breakout is a stock in an uptrend that has consolidated in a trading range and then breaks above the trading range (ideally as a new 12 month high) and with a supporting increase in volume to support the move. 

Some examples of recent continuation trades I have taken CTD and API.

I will be adding content to the outstanding breakout thread for any stocks experiencing the initial breakout from the base trading range (following stabilisation after a downtrend). One such example NXR.

Hopefully have a few regular members contribute to the success of these threads and we can all enjoy the success together (no it isn't a club yet... Haha).


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## tech/a (1 November 2014)

Nortorious said:


> Hi All,
> I'm hoping to start a thread and will aim to maintain the content (post regularly) of stocks that have a continuation breakout.
> Myt definition of a continuation breakout is a stock in an uptrend that has consolidated in a trading range and then breaks above the trading range (ideally as a new 12 month high) and with a supporting increase in volume to support the move.
> 
> ...




Are you intending to find stock prior to the continuation breakout and analyze what's happening in any consolidation with the view of getting on a trade?

OR

Wait for the breakout and as a condition preferably on volume.
In which case your intending to----just follow it?

OR

??


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## tech/a (1 November 2014)

This sort of thing?

*Click to expand*


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## Nortorious (1 November 2014)

Hi Tech/A and thanks for the post.

In answer to what I'm looking for, it is a little from column A and a little from column B.

So, looking at potential trades of stocks that are hitting the upper limit of their trading range OR have crossed the upper limit of the range on the intraday... 

I think if we tracked all stocks in trading ranges it might not be effective but perhaps those that are showing signs of testing the upper limit and/or moving above it.... Does that make sense? Probably best to work off your experience on these things too as to what you see as being most effective and useful for us.

My intention is to be able to trade stocks we identify (based on my strategy) but also make others that follow similar entries aware of the opportunity. That way for stocks that don't come up in my scans, they might come up in others and vice versa.

Your FPH is probably a good example of the trading range developing but I would be looking for when it heads above that $5.00 with volume. Although, could potentially put in a buy-stop order above this range so the market takes me in when it moves that way....


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## tech/a (1 November 2014)

Nortorious said:


> Your FPH is probably a good example of the trading range developing but I would be looking for when it heads above that $5.00 with volume. Although, could potentially put in a buy-stop order above this range so the market takes me in when it moves that way....




That's what I'd do but wouldn't care about volume on the break.
It's what volume does during and coming into a top and then consolidation
That we should bewatching


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## Nortorious (1 November 2014)

Thanks Tech/A.

So you don't consider volume on the crossing as important? Is this just from what you have seen in the market or you think the trading range volume says more than the one bar that makes the cross?

My theory would be that as the price crosses and volume is behind it, demand is thus seen as being higher and pushing prices up... Pretty basic economics principle I know but I like a KISS strategy.


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## tech/a (2 November 2014)

Nortorious said:


> Thanks Tech/A.
> 
> So you don't consider volume on the crossing as important? Is this just from what you have seen in the market or you think the trading range volume says more than the one bar that makes the cross?
> 
> My theory would be that as the price crosses and volume is behind it, demand is thus seen as being higher and pushing prices up... Pretty basic economics principle I know but I like a KISS strategy.




Volume is simple but can be complex in text to a chart if you simply follow the "Text book" regurgitation that high volume indicates strength!
I don't disagree with your observation but I certainly wouldn't disregard price cross in resistance with very little volume.

I think it would be good to have an updated reasonably exhaustive volume tutorial on the "Introduction to Technical Analysis" thread. Will take sometime to do it properly.

In the meantime.

In *UP TRENDS*

High volume in an up trend indicates *DEMAND*
Range within a bar indicates *SUPPLY*
Close indicates *STRENGTH* of* EITHER*
Following Bars *CONFIRM PAST* price action and *ANTICIPATE FUTURE PRICE ACTION*

In *DOWN TRENDS*

High volume in a down trend indicates *SUPPLY*
Range within a bar indicates *DEMAND*
Close indicates *STRENGTH* of* EITHER*
Following Bars *CONFIRM PAST* price action and *ANTICIPATE FUTURE PRICE ACTION*

In *UP* or *DOWN TRENDS*
bars with very high volume generally anticipate price moves---it cannot be totally clear in* ALL* cases whether Very High Volume in itself supports the direction in which THAT bar has moved.
Other important factors need to be included.

*FOR EXAMPLE*

You have mentioned 1
A clear break of resistance/support is highly likely to be positive.
A stalling at or just above resistance/support is likely to be the exact opposite.

Not ALL HIGH VOLUME is equal!

This is my favorite topic and I think best supported with chart examples that everyone can look for and interpret IN CONTEXT with their trading.
This will take sometime---in fact a book would do it justice. While Ive read many on the topic I really do think that most fall sadly short!

Lets use the chart I've tossed up for discussion as a *VERY GOOD* example.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*




*EXAMPLE 1*




EXAMPLE 2




Take sometime to pull up a chart and see what the VOLUME/RANGE/and CLOSE was telling you from the HIGH VOLUME BARS to the BREAKOUTS?
Quite a story!


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## Nortorious (2 November 2014)

So tech/a you would be expecting the stock to continue heading upwards?

My confidence level in it heading north is probably not high enough to warrant trading it. If I was already in then it wouldn't matter so much, only when it starts to curve over and flatten out.

I look forward to hearing more on your thoughts with the matter of volume etc.

Here's a trade opportunity I see for tomorrow and the weeks ahead with the continuation breakout I look for. As this chart below shows, has closed above $5.80 on last weekly bar at $5.88. Rsi increasing, and moving average trending upwards (and price is above it). We'll see where it goes...


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## tech/a (3 November 2014)

This is as good a setup as any.

So Your trading this then in the weekly timeframe?

RSI and M/A's are simply tracking a bullish price action.
They have very little technically supportive usefulness---in my view.
They cant do anything else but support the clear price action.
To consider them as a confirmation that all is OK is pointless.

How would you set up your trade?

As Id expect this to be traded differently on a weekly basis to a daily basis---interested in how you'd handle it.

Position Sizing
Risk mitigation.

What is your exit strategy.

The *DAILY* by the way shows a really nice Bullish Micro pattern with a wonderful accumulation
bar in it.


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## VSntchr (3 November 2014)

Don't follow this type of trading strategy, but I noticed FPH which is a competitor to a stock I do hold: RMD.

Just had a look at the chart of RMD and noticed that today it broke resistance...perhaps it is a candidate also?

(this chart is on EOD data)4


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## Nortorious (6 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> This is as good a setup as any.
> 
> So Your trading this then in the weekly timeframe?
> 
> ...




Yeh that's right Tech/A, I'm working off the weekly charts and this does impact risk and also the way I trade it.

So regarding position sizing, I allocate a certain percentage of overall capital of my portfolio (obviously needs to be an amount that is in cash at the time), usually stick with a standard 10% on most stocks and less if more of a speccy stock. Basically, I size my position to ensure the overall portfolio risk doesn't exceed 3% but ideally I want it less than 2% if possible without making the position too small.

The risk mitigation (which I work into position sizing to determine the risk in the trade) is basically my ideal entry price minus the stop loss point that I identify. To find the stop loss point, I look at the moving average and the last point that the prior trading range and the bar the last bar that hit the bottom of this range. I then go straight below to the MA and look at the price at that section of the chart. Then, depending on the number, I place it below this point (subjectively) to give a little extra wiggle room.

My exit strategy consists of me tracking the progress of the stock and adjusting the trailing stop at points that become clear (whether it be trading ranges forming or shake out bars) and moving it as necessary. Once the stock starts to curve over, I will see the price hit the moving average and once this is penetrated, move my stock to below that bar. Sometimes the stock will head back up and I repeat the process until the trailing stop gets hit. Other times it may go sideways and eventually fall through the stop point and I'm out.... STILL REFINING THIS METHOD.

Whilst daily movement can not always be positive (such as today), I stick to the game plan and play the probabilities.... It's working for other stocks I hold so just a numbers game ultimately.....

Interested on your thoughts on the above methods.


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## Nortorious (6 November 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Don't follow this type of trading strategy, but I noticed FPH which is a competitor to a stock I do hold: RMD.
> 
> Just had a look at the chart of RMD and noticed that today it broke resistance...perhaps it is a candidate also?
> 
> ...




RMD looks ok but I personally would want to see it move above $6 with a bit more volume behind it...


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## Nortorious (14 November 2014)

HSN was a perfect example of a continuation breakout this morning. I unfortunately couldn't take the trade as I was in meetings all morning and hadn't put a conditional order in last night. Once it got above $1.60 it was off and running


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## tech/a (14 November 2014)

Nortorious said:


> HSN was a perfect example of a continuation breakout this morning. I unfortunately couldn't take the trade as I was in meetings all morning and hadn't put a conditional order in last night. Once it got above $1.60 it was off and running




They are all brilliant in hindsight.
If you had 20 on conditional orders few if any would be triggered.


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## Nortorious (15 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> They are all brilliant in hindsight.
> If you had 20 on conditional orders few if any would be triggered.




Agreed hindsight makes trading look simple (and unfortunately that's how many "make you rich overnight" systems are sold).

In most instances, I am able to trade the market at in this situation would buy at market as soon as I saw that it had jumped above the previous trading range. An example is my trade with CTD, bought at market at $8.23 and currently at $9.80 (and still looking good for further advancement).

When I know that I can't trade ahead of time, I will put conditional orders in. Sometimes they are hit, other times they aren't... Unfortunately for me, in terms of taking the trade, I was called into a meeting right on the open and it cost me the desired trade entry. It's important for me to take care of business for my primary means of income first...

Trading for me is an opportunity to bring in a second stream of income and fortunately the meeting for me was to discuss future opportunities with my organisation and becoming a part owner down the track.

That will see my opportunity to further progress my wealth creation journey and means the possibility to generate three streams of income: pay cheque (and bonuses), trading returns and dividends and dividends from being a part owner of a profitable business and proven business model.


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## Nortorious (17 November 2014)

New breakout opportunity presented today. ALU moved above the previous range where the high was $3.14. I got into the trade this morning with an at market purchase at $3.15. 

Following the entry, the stock moved to a intraday high of $3.24 and closed at $3.17 showing a small profit for the first session of the holding.

Trading off the weekly chart but took the entry using the daily. Weekly chart below shows the overall activity and the stop will sit around $2.68 for now. 

Weekly chart



Daily chart



Initial target is $4.00 from past action way back in 2001 and if it moves through this area, will be watching it again at $4.48ish.

We'll see what happens...


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## Boggo (17 November 2014)

Nortorious said:


> ...
> Trading off the weekly chart but took the entry using the daily. Weekly chart below shows the overall activity and the stop will sit around $2.68 for now.




Using a relatively similiar approach to yours in my SMSF.
I narrow the market down to around 480 stocks using StockDoctor.

Have had around 12 transactions (entries/stops) this FY, currently running double digit profits without taking dividends into account (including >15% yield on TLS by using instalment warrants).

The main advantage I have noticed is that you need to narrow the tradeable market down a bit by eliminating the wannabees (I use StockDoctor for this) and then apply a weekly scan to the remainder will throw up reliable entries such as CAJ, IFM, TNE etc.
If you are up to it you can also apply leverage on some of the majors using warrants etc. 

Remove some of the chaff from the existing 2000 or so stocks and you will find that you may be on the right track and your failed trades will also reduce significantly.

I haven`t traded ALU but the chart is below as an example what you can do with seven transactions to maintain a position in the trend.

(PS. bear in mind that I am an amateur at this and what works for me may not work for you)

(click to expand)


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## VSntchr (18 November 2014)

Boggo said:


> Using a relatively similiar approach to yours in my SMSF.
> I narrow the market down to around 480 stocks using StockDoctor.




Hi Boggo,
Your approach is interesting and I always have a look at the weekly charts you throw up now and again.
I think a strategy such as this would be suitable for my father. Low maintenance and he can't get himself in too much risk like he has in the past with several option strategies 

*Just wondering:* are those signals automated by software, or are you simply entering once a string of red bars turns to a green....and selling when a red bar occurs?


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## Boggo (18 November 2014)

VSntchr said:


> *Just wondering:* are those signals automated by software, or are you simply entering once a string of red bars turns to a green....and selling when a red bar occurs?




They are generated by the software. The scan of the shortened list identifies any stocks that have just created a signal.

The entries and exits don't always occur on the bar following the signals, they are usually just a heads up. The exit is usually a result of observing daily and weekly stock behaviour but is often within a bar or so of the signal.


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## >Apocalypto< (18 November 2014)

Boggo said:


> They are generated by the software. The scan of the shortened list identifies any stocks that have just created a signal.
> 
> The entries and exits don't always occur on the bar following the signals, they are usually just a heads up. The exit is usually a result of observing daily and weekly stock behaviour but is often within a bar or so of the signal.




Boggo,

how does that method handle slower markets? I know it would suffer in ranges. Do you have a criteria for keeping yourself out or damaging market behavior? Looks very nice.


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## Boggo (18 November 2014)

Generally if they are not performing or if the market is flat I have no hesitation in going to cash.

Sometimes I do get a bit too trigger happy and bail out too soon, MNF being a recent example which has continued on without me but that if more of a psychological disappointment than a financial failure. 
Having said that it only costs brokerage and a bit of slippage to get back in whereas hanging on when they are going nowhere will cost you especially if the funds can be used elsewhere ( I didn't get back into MNF).


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## Nortorious (20 November 2014)

Nortorious said:


> New breakout opportunity presented today. ALU moved above the previous range where the high was $3.14. I got into the trade this morning with an at market purchase at $3.15.
> 
> Following the entry, the stock moved to a intraday high of $3.24 and closed at $3.17 showing a small profit for the first session of the holding.
> 
> ...




ALU heading the right way as expected, high for the week has been $3.31 and happy with the volume activity. Let's see where it ends the week.


VOC also doing well despite the overall market condition, showing good Relative Strength. Hitting new highs and expecting this to launch soon. Should be an interesting session tomorrow.


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## tech/a (22 November 2014)

3 weeks down the track.

*I still maintain that volume plays a much 
less part than the general public think. Indeed EXPECT.*

Here I look at FPH which I bought up for discussion (There wasn't any!)
and VOC which Notorious bought up.







I cant see a difference in one over the other.


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## Nortorious (24 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> 3 weeks down the track.
> 
> *I still maintain that volume plays a much
> less part than the general public think. Indeed EXPECT.*
> ...





Thanks for the post T/A. I think it is possibly a misunderstanding that's the issue here.

See the attached chart for reference. Whilst I agree this is tradeable see my thoughts for the three bars that are up for discussion....

Bar A = I consider this a false breakout as there was no volume behind it. I wouldn't trade this yet...

Bar B = Another false breakout due to the close, volume was a little better but I still wouldn't trade it...

Bar C = This would be the entry as it hits a new high and volume is massive relative to the past bars. This bar indicates it is heading higher....




The weekly chart is another story... I would trade the second last bar after it moved above previous high with petrol behind it...


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## tech/a (24 November 2014)

No no mis understanding

All valid comments and qualifications.
I don't disagree.
But to say that all breakouts on high volume will be 
successful and all on low volume un successful I've found
To be incorrect.

As for breakouts on volume largely being more successful than those without.
I've not found conclusive evidence to support that either.

But you have an excellent rule set.
My only comment is to suggest you don't discard breakouts
On low volume--- particularly gaps and wide range breaks of resistance.


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## Nortorious (25 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> No no mis understanding
> 
> All valid comments and qualifications.
> I don't disagree.
> ...




Ok thanks T/A.

I guess it comes down to expectations for me. Although the set up I look for and entry criteria is consistent, the outcomes are not. When I enter a trade there is no way of knowing if it will be a 20% profit or 200% profit trade. Despite set ups looking the same etc, every result will be different and I respect that. I'm trying to play it like a casino and trade the probabilities that will hopefully make me a winner long term.

Now as to trading gaps or wide range bars that burst through the ceiling, I haven't put much attention into this but always willing to expand my context. I'll keep on the lookout for some of this activity.

I appreciate your post as it starts me thinking in an area I may not have considered and having a narrow context can be limiting...


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## tech/a (5 December 2014)

*Update*

Cant understand why there is no interest in this thread.
6 weeks down the track.

Both very interesting charts.

*Click to expand*


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## Craton (6 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> *Update*
> 
> Cant understand why there is no interest in this thread.
> 6 weeks down the track.




FWIW, plenty of interest here.


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## Nortorious (7 December 2014)

Hey T/A, thanks for posting the charts and keeping the discussion alive.

I have been watching FPH and it's moving as expected given the breakout etc. As you say, ease of upward movement is good when compared to VOC.

VOC on the weekly still looks healthy to me. FPH as an entry candidate would be a better choice than VOC at the moment. 

Let's keep watching and chatting to see what transpires...


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## Nortorious (12 December 2014)

Nice pick on FPH T/A.

I'm out or getting out of a lot of positions as I am not happy with the overall tone of the market. Moving out of positions with profit despite that starting to turn downwards. Still a couple that I'm in that are on the border of being sold...

Happy to preserve capital whilst I wait for a less riskier market to be in...


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## Nortorious (22 December 2014)

Lots and lots of stocks registering this type of pattern today!

I'm trying to get through my analysis quickly so that I can maximise the opportunity.

I was bearish on the overall market last week but my sentiment has changed after seeing how many stocks are poised to extend and extend further....

Interesting few weeks ahead!

Good first day off of work for three weeks with a market that is very fruitful at the moment.......

Will post some stocks on the move later today once my trading is done and I have some time to post up charts etc.


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## Nortorious (22 December 2014)

Nortorious said:


> Lots and lots of stocks registering this type of pattern today!
> 
> I'm trying to get through my analysis quickly so that I can maximise the opportunity.
> 
> ...




3 stocks entered today, CBA, GPT and TIX.

Lowest risk opportunities from the analysis that I have done thus far.

GPT and TIX both offer upcoming dividends which further reduce their risk. 

CBA offered a position risk of 5.91%
GPT offered a position risk of 10.34% (taking into account dividend, adjusted risk = 7.93%)
TIX offered a position risk of 7.51% (taking into account dividend, adjusted risk = 5.51%)

The size of each position is adjusted to ensure that no single position exceeds a total capital/portfolio risk that is greater than 2%.

Let's see where these go....

Other opportunities analysed include:

*ASX Code % risk*
CMW  	7.98%
SLF	        8.21%
TLS	        8.27%
GMG	        9.34%
GHC	        9.74%
BWP	      11.07%
ANN	      11.18%
SYD	      11.50%
HSN	      13.37%
AMC	      14.72%
MFF	      15.82%
RMD	      16.37%
AIA	      16.71%
CTX	      17.87%


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## Nortorious (11 January 2015)

Happy new year to those following this thread. Doesn't seem to be much interest at all other than myself and tech/a trading posts. Would love to see some more get involved with their thoughts or identifying potential trades.

From the watchlist I had posted in my last post on 22 Dec 14, 10 stocks are up and 7 are down but all look fine if I was in them. I'm only in TIX, GPT (both which went ex-dividend on 29 Dec 14) and also CBA.

I spent some time developing my first watchlist for the year (have got back from some nice beach time) and came up with a list of 27 stocks that fit my criteria. Now I am not going to post all of these stocks as it is too many to track, my top 10 though from a risk point of view (risk being calculated as the difference from the last price to the 30 week weighted moving average ---> I do this as a preliminary risk rating but then if selected, a stop point is found using a different method):

*Stock code and then risk below:*
MGR 7.07%
DLX 7.60%
TLS 7.74%
FDC 8.50%
CMW 9.20%
SYD 10.51%
LLC 10.87%
CCP 10.93%
RHC 11.31%
ANN 12.96%

Now out of these, the best pick for my purposes is FDC. This is a true continuation breakout trade, with it being its highest high and everything still point upwards.

Interested to hear others thoughts on the stocks identified above and hopefully some debate as to what is a good breakout trade, where stops should go, calculating risk etc...

With my quarterly bonus from last year coming through this week, I should be able to boost my trading capital again and expand my activities further. Rinse and repeat and hopefully will have my money working, just as hard as I am, in no time!

2015 will be a big year!


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## Nortorious (11 January 2015)

tech/a said:


> *Update*
> 
> Cant understand why there is no interest in this thread.
> 6 weeks down the track.
> ...




Latest charts for FPH and VOC that we were tracking, both still look ok on the weekly. I got out of VOC and didn't stick to the plan of getting out with a trailing stop. Decided to liquidate as I was anticipating things rather than reading the play that was happening on this stock. Anyway, will continue to watch with interest...


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## Nortorious (7 February 2015)

Nortorious said:


> 3 stocks entered today, CBA, GPT and TIX.
> 
> Lowest risk opportunities from the analysis that I have done thus far.
> 
> ...




Updating my post from just before Christmas to see how the various stocks I had done a risk/reward on for trading. Here's an update on there performance. The first three are positions I hold (but don't necessarily reflect my entry price or take into account any dividends paid):




Interesting to reflect on this and have confidence in my method for identifying potential trades using this strategy.


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## Wysiwyg (7 February 2015)

Nortorious said:


> Interesting to reflect on this and have confidence in my method for identifying potential trades using this strategy.



Look good when the tide rises don't they?


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## pavilion103 (7 February 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Look good when the tide rises don't they?




Just got to put yourself in the position.

I've been out of stocks for 9 months. I see potential opportunity so I'm back in.


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## Nortorious (7 February 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Look good when the tide rises don't they?




This is true. But it is even better when you have positioned yourself to take advantage of when the tide does rise...

I have been fully invested since late December and early Jan waiting for the latest action. 

After updating my trailing stops, I only have a 6% at risk component left in the market for my entire portfolio... Meaning if everything was to drop overnight, the worst outcome would be minus 6% of my portfolio as it stands.

6% vs the probabilities of things continuing to head North, I like this bet.


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## Wysiwyg (7 February 2015)

Nortorious said:


> This is true. But it is even better when you have positioned yourself to take advantage of when the tide does rise...



Now that is showing some real market know how.


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## Nortorious (7 February 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Now that is showing some real market know how.




Maybe... but the tide can always turn quickly too.

Complacency is something that one needs to avoid in all areas of life.


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## Nortorious (19 November 2015)

Not wanting to compete with peter2 and his thread but thought people may like to have regular postings on this thread of stocks that are showing up as continuation breakout opportunities. I don't want to be the administrator of the page but more a contributor. 

The purpose would be to post charts that show recent activity, once a continuation breakout has occurred (not when it is setting up to occur).

I define a continuation breakout as a stock that hits a new historical high with no overhead resistance in the background (meaning there is nothing in the past that will delay further progress in the upward movement of a stock).

Rules for the continuation breakout include:

1. Hitting new historical high
2. Stock can be in an uptrend or trading sideways, before hitting the new high
3. The move to the new historical high needs to be fuelled by an increase in volume (it doesn't need to be significant, just an increase on normal activity)

I will post charts as I come across them and disclose whether I have a position in the stock or not for transparency sake.


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## Nortorious (19 November 2015)

An example is NTC

Has moved above previous high of $1.785 with an increase in volume (and one day remaining to close out the bar on the weekly chart).

Disclosure: I do not hold NTC


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## Nortorious (25 November 2015)

Nortorious said:


> An example is NTC
> 
> Has moved above previous high of $1.785 with an increase in volume (and one day remaining to close out the bar on the weekly chart).
> 
> ...





Anyone checked out NTC since raising as an example in this thread?

It closed today at $3.49 or 66% up from when I mentioned it last week.


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## pixel (25 November 2015)

LVT may fit the pattern as well.




I happened to catch it at 31 (thanks, Sue, for the heads-up)
traded a few swings, but kept a half position for longer. (Lesson learned from selling LYC far too cheaply.)


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## pixel (25 November 2015)

I have also set an alert for RYG. 




A break above 5.7c (top of the current Darvas box) could cause considerable excitement.
Until that happens, I only take small bites and play intraday swings.


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## Nortorious (25 November 2015)

pixel said:


> LVT may fit the pattern as well.
> 
> View attachment 65108
> 
> ...




Thanks Pixel. LVT is a nice pattern and the activity is looking really good. I'd probably classify this as an initial base breakout rather than a continuation breakout but either way, it is a great one to look at trading. Thanks for bringing this to my attention (it showed up in my scans today but I hadn't actually looked into it further as yet).


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## Nortorious (25 November 2015)

pixel said:


> I have also set an alert for RYG.
> 
> View attachment 65109
> 
> ...




Another good opportunity you have identified here Pixel with RYG. 

If these are the types of set-ups you like, you might like to check out CCF also.


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## Nortorious (25 November 2015)

TWE ripe for further extension North. A really positive day today with a new high achieved with some increase in the volume activity supporting the move.


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## Nortorious (30 November 2015)

MYX looks like a good opportunity for a run.

Disclosure: I have just purchased for my super account.


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## Nortorious (20 December 2015)

Pretty choppy market at the moment but the two charts posted in this thread previously (TWE and MYX) have continued their trend. 

MYX now up to $1.435 and TWE at $8.26. I expect both these to continue on their trajectory until something changes that momentum.

A few stocks showing potential for the continuation breakout setup:

ARB
BGA
CSL
HSN
ALL
NPX

There is also another that I'm going to be buying tomorrow at the open but I'm wanting to hold back on posting that chart until I'm in it.


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## pixel (21 December 2015)

Not sure whether this qualifies as a continuation; but in any case it's a breakout alright.
Last week's announcement about a German Insurance company choosing their encryption puts more credibility to their product. Germans can be quite paranoid, especially after they discovered the sneaky tactics of US services. If they choose CVT, it's a big tick in my book.

Technically, this morning's pullback appears to have found support at the old resistance, then reversed up.




I'm buying. Tight stop (29c) with possible swinging opportunities.


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## pixel (21 December 2015)

... and another one; in spite of those low gaps - some would say, *because* of them - GXY looks like a proper continuation break. If 10c holds, I stop swing-trading and only accumulate. Maybe the Market finds Canaccord's target of 16c credible?


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## Nortorious (23 December 2015)

Nortorious said:


> Pretty choppy market at the moment but the two charts posted in this thread previously (TWE and MYX) have continued their trend.
> 
> MYX now up to $1.435 and TWE at $8.26. I expect both these to continue on their trajectory until something changes that momentum.
> 
> ...




I got into the other stock I mentioned so happy to reveal now. AGL.

I'll post some charts up so you can all see what I'm seeing...


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## Nortorious (23 December 2015)

pixel said:


> Not sure whether this qualifies as a continuation; but in any case it's a breakout alright.
> Last week's announcement about a German Insurance company choosing their encryption puts more credibility to their product. Germans can be quite paranoid, especially after they discovered the sneaky tactics of US services. If they choose CVT, it's a big tick in my book.
> 
> Technically, this morning's pullback appears to have found support at the old resistance, then reversed up.
> ...




Thanks Pixel. Interesting chart to look at for CVT. It looks like it is going sideways a bit after declining a fair bit. I would be waiting until it was above 0.36 to get in but too much noise in the background for my liking.

With a tight stop though, your risk v reward is hopefully healthy.


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## Nortorious (23 December 2015)

pixel said:


> ... and another one; in spite of those low gaps - some would say, *because* of them - GXY looks like a proper continuation break. If 10c holds, I stop swing-trading and only accumulate. Maybe the Market finds Canaccord's target of 16c credible?
> 
> View attachment 65378




I like this one Pixel. First target would be 14c for me and then onwards to 23c. Risk is probably a bit high for me but it is definitely turning upwards and has volume to support the story of higher prices in the future. Definitely an accumulation type trade rather than a swinger.


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## Nortorious (23 December 2015)

Basic analysis of AGL. Moved above res. point from way back and increasing volume. I like the breakout.


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## pixel (23 December 2015)

I am now more confident that GXY has left (yet another) continuation gap and is less likely to drop below 10c.




Breakout supported by high volume counts even more at this time of year when many traders have already left the building for the rest of the year.


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## pixel (23 December 2015)

Here is one I missed when it happened. 
I did scan for trend breaks, but failed to follow up with the watch list on Monday.




Good Luck and Congrats anyone who caught it in time.


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## grah33 (29 December 2015)

i think i should start following this thread as well.

just wondering, do you people also buy stapled securities, areits etc?  they come up all the time in my scanned lists.


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## Nortorious (29 December 2015)

Stocks identified on 20th Dec 2015, performance since then...

ARB = down 0.01
BGA = up 1.14 (18.5%)
CSL = up 1.26 (1.21%)
HSN = up 0.18 (5.55%)
ALL = up 0.11
NPX = up 0.15 (3.4%)

Good advances on most and likely to continue.

I'm sensing a change in the market but too early to call that we are heading upwards. Either way, current market action is favourable for long positions.


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## Nortorious (29 December 2015)

grah33 said:


> i think i should start following this thread as well.
> 
> just wondering, do you people also buy stapled securities, areits etc?  they come up all the time in my scanned lists.




Not sure what they are grah33 so I'm guessing not....

ASX equities is all I need to trade at the moment.


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## pixel (31 December 2015)

VSC:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/asset.php?fid=63568&uid=33483&d=1451515691

For chart and rationale, see VSC thread.


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## Nortorious (4 January 2016)

WAX presented as a good opportunity... See chart below for more info. You can see that it extended beyond a previous high on last week's action. volume was lower last week due to the reduced trading hours but was still better than the previous week.

I entered this stock this morning for my trading account and managed a nice entry of 1.295. Risk on the position sits at around 4% and given it is a continuation buy, I would be hoping to get around 30% or more profit but you never know where these can end up given there is no real price target to gauge from background activity at higher levels (blue sky above).


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## Nortorious (8 January 2016)

Nortorious said:


> Another good opportunity you have identified here Pixel with RYG.
> 
> If these are the types of set-ups you like, you might like to check out CCF also.




Hopefully you jumped onboard CCF Pixel...

It shot up today by 72% and since the date I mentioned it, it is up 131%. 

I bought in at 0.048 at the start of November and since then have received a healthy profit of 295%!!! And it is still pointing further North.

If only the overall market was looking as healthy.


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## Nortorious (17 May 2016)

Nortorious said:


> TWE ripe for further extension North. A really positive day today with a new high achieved with some increase in the volume activity supporting the move.
> 
> View attachment 65110




TWE has been a good earner. 60% growth plus dividends.


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## Nortorious (17 May 2016)

Nortorious said:


> So tech/a you would be expecting the stock to continue heading upwards?
> 
> My confidence level in it heading north is probably not high enough to warrant trading it. If I was already in then it wouldn't matter so much, only when it starts to curve over and flatten out.
> 
> ...




Another trade that I identified, got in, got out and stayed out... only to see it up at $9.00 today!


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## Nortorious (17 May 2016)

Nortorious said:


> New breakout opportunity presented today. ALU moved above the previous range where the high was $3.14. I got into the trade this morning with an at market purchase at $3.15.
> 
> Following the entry, the stock moved to a intraday high of $3.24 and closed at $3.17 showing a small profit for the first session of the holding.
> 
> ...




ALU now up around $6.35.... Reviewing these opportunities tells me I need to be trading these!


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## Nortorious (17 May 2016)

Nortorious said:


> View attachment 65389
> 
> 
> Basic analysis of AGL. Moved above res. point from way back and increasing volume. I like the breakout.




AGL a slow and steady climb plus dividends. Currently at 18.71


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## Nortorious (17 May 2016)

So after looking at this thread and the slow death it had thanks partly to me not adding anything new and a pretty slow market for these trades, I'll be trying to revive this and get it going again. It should work in well with peter2's thread given they types of trade set ups.


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## Boggo (17 May 2016)

Doesn't seem to be much commentary on poor old TLS amidst all the doom and gloom.

(click to expand)


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## Nortorious (19 May 2016)

Boggo said:


> Doesn't seem to be much commentary on poor old TLS amidst all the doom and gloom.
> 
> (click to expand)




I would say this is still feeling the impact of the doom and gloom that hit TLS and some of the other larger stocks over the past few months.

Looking at the weekly chart, I would have no interest in buying this until it got above the highs for early 2015. Only then would it become a continuation breakout trade. Given the inability to break through the short term resistance (at this stage), it could quickly head back down so if you are trading it, keep a tight stop on it...


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## Boggo (19 May 2016)

Nortorious said:


> ...
> Looking at the weekly chart, I would have no interest in buying this until it got above the highs for early 2015. Only then would it become a continuation breakout trade. Given the inability to break through the short term resistance (at this stage), it could quickly head back down so if you are trading it, keep a tight stop on it...




In theory expecting a dip into the sub 5.53 area followed by a turn back up. My weekly system may trigger a signal when it breaks above 5.79, until then short term hit and run seems to work. Time will tell I guess.

(click to expand)


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## Nortorious (21 May 2016)

Boggo said:


> In theory expecting a dip into the sub 5.53 area followed by a turn back up. My weekly system may trigger a signal when it breaks above 5.79, until then short term hit and run seems to work. Time will tell I guess.
> 
> (click to expand)




Ok so you are trading with a short term view for this and a potential long term hitter if it rises well. Nice idea and with dividends that are usually pretty good, if you can get on a long term trend you will be laughing. 

Nice signature by the way


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## Toyota Lexcen (21 May 2016)

I switched some money from a reit into tls, got them at 5.15 about 3 weeks ago,

Hoping it keeps going to high $6's, fingers crossed they announce an extra dividend


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## Wysiwyg (21 May 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> I switched some money from a reit into tls, got them at 5.15 about 3 weeks ago,
> 
> Hoping it keeps going to high $6's, *fingers crossed they announce an extra dividend*



Sorry mate. No special divvy because the extra cash will be used to placate angry Telstra network subscribers after another outage.


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## Toyota Lexcen (21 May 2016)

no way, stuff em


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## History Repeats (21 May 2016)

I think i read somewhere business insider i think Yesterday TLS going to be short of 2-3 billion on profit for the next few years due to NBN. BTW great post by TA on page one.


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## Nortorious (6 July 2016)

A few stocks either setting up or already in continuation breakouts: RMS, AGL, AWV.

Sending from my phone so can't post charts sorry.


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## grah33 (16 July 2016)

Hi Nort,
been a while . this is another thread i've got to catch up on.  was just wondering, as a trend follower, do you have a high take profit, something like e.g. 5R , or perhaps you just let them run as far as they can go (possibly higher, wait till the trailing stop loss calls for an exit) ? just curious as to what you do.  i know there are no rules as such, but i'm just wondering. thx


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## Nortorious (17 July 2016)

grah33 said:


> Hi Nort,
> been a while . this is another thread i've got to catch up on.  was just wondering, as a trend follower, do you have a high take profit, something like e.g. 5R , or perhaps you just let them run as far as they can go (possibly higher, wait till the trailing stop loss calls for an exit) ? just curious as to what you do.  i know there are no rules as such, but i'm just wondering. thx




I tend to hang on until the trailing stop takes me out. It means that you don't sell at the highest point but trying to pick that is a fools game. I usually use a 30 week weighted moving average as my sell indicator, once it has dropped below that, I watch the action and then either sell or hold (as it can quickly rebound from this point).

No hard and fast rules you are right, but this is one I use and it seems to go alright. I'm sure there are better methods but this one was thanks to Stan Weinstein's book...


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## grah33 (17 July 2016)

ok.  was unsure if there might be some advantage in snagging it when it's high, as trading literature seems to suggest taking a profit (either small or high), and something you wrote once mentioned a take profit (a high one). anyway, thanks for your answer.

hey, have you ever thought about a stock market crash scenario, how you will avoid losing all your money?  i'm thinking as traders , if it's something like 2007 we would be okay. a few market down days  would occur and there would be enough liquidity for us to exit our positions as they would get to our stop levels. we might already be out b4 liquidity dries up.  or perhaps it could happen suddenly like 70% on the first day?  in that case we would all get smashed. there is much talk about shares being overpriced and many people are expecting a crash.


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## History Repeats (18 July 2016)

You can't protect against a sudden gap down or drop of 70% unless you hedge.


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## Nortorious (18 July 2016)

grah33 said:


> ok.  was unsure if there might be some advantage in snagging it when it's high, as trading literature seems to suggest taking a profit (either small or high), and something you wrote once mentioned a take profit (a high one). anyway, thanks for your answer.
> 
> hey, have you ever thought about a stock market crash scenario, how you will avoid losing all your money?  i'm thinking as traders , if it's something like 2007 we would be okay. a few market down days  would occur and there would be enough liquidity for us to exit our positions as they would get to our stop levels. we might already be out b4 liquidity dries up.  or perhaps it could happen suddenly like 70% on the first day?  in that case we would all get smashed. there is much talk about shares being overpriced and many people are expecting a crash.




The literature will probably tell you that "you can't go broke taking a profit" right? Sorry to smash your dreams, this is only true if you are the broker processing the orders to buy and sell... I'll only ever take profit when my trailing stop takes me out or if I'm selling to shift the capital to something moving faster (a discretionary exit based on whether the position is either currently in a loss position or progress upwards has been slow).

Regarding the stock market crash, believe it or not, some of these "crashes" happened after an already substantial fall in the market. If you look at 2007/08, for the XAO, and apply a 30 week weighted moving average, you will see that the XAO fell through the weighted average initially, rose back above it and then fell back through... then the downward slide started. 

If it dropped 70% in one day, I would probably suggest you aren't in a very good stock (technically) anyway! For the whole market to be hit with such a drop is unlikely without a few warning signs prior to it happening (in my opinion). 

My advice to you would be don't listen to what many people say (you referred to many people expecting a crash). If you follow the many, you'll never beat them or the market. Every expert has tipped a housing market crash for the last 20 years.... and you know what. If they keep saying it, one day they will be right. The same as if you said "I'm going to die today" every day. Eventually you too would be right....


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## grah33 (20 July 2016)

thank you Nort for some more helpful tips.  lately i've been a little worried about what can happen to my money 'suddenly' , so i have to ask  these survival types of questions. you know though, other leveraged instruments like currency, are riskier.  they had a 'flash crash' jan 15th last year - 4000 pips gap (worst case of one of the cross currencies). it blew people's accounts , and many had massive debts. leveraged instruments are more dangerous by nature since you have to use leverage to trade.

another good indicator is 30ema. i use this one when assessing the daily share trends. if it's within 30ema, the pullbacks aren't too deep, it tends to be a nice candidate for a trend trade.


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## grah33 (21 July 2016)

to be fair though, there still may be some catastrophe type of risk to us traders. i looked at the daily chart (online) and there wasn't a great deal of warning before it occurred.  it was going up, then a usual consolidation, a few down days (just a few), then a big down day, then the gap...so, be careful everyone. and if you lose all your money, don't worry about it.  worrying doesn't help.  or put some of your eggs in a different basket if you're very worried

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...hWBEpQKHX9kDOUQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=jjUXhXYEWg-0uM:


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## Triathlete (22 July 2016)

grah33 said:


> to be fair though, there still may be some catastrophe type of risk to us traders. *i looked at the daily chart (online) and there wasn't a great deal of warning before it occurred.*  it was going up, then a usual consolidation, a few down days (just a few), then a big down day, then the gap...so, be careful everyone. and if you lose all your money, don't worry about it.  worrying doesn't help.  or put some of your eggs in a different basket if you're very worried
> 
> https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...hWBEpQKHX9kDOUQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=jjUXhXYEWg-0uM:





I have to disagree with you. 
With the chart you posted .

We could already see that the market had begun to top out in August 1987 at least two months before the crash in Oct 1987.

I would say that many experienced technical traders at the time would have either hedged their positions or closed out. Some would have also taken some short position based on what they were seeing.

*''Trade on what you see not what you think."*

We could see an EW5 had formed which had definitely moved beyond what is usual for that wave structure , so that would have also warned us of a correction was very likely. IMHO


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## grah33 (22 July 2016)

just wondering Nort and other share traders , what is your approach to scheduled news (since reporting season is upon us).   are u avoiding getting into trades with earnings etc reports coming up on known dates?  or u don't care if shares  start gapping (up or down) the next day on you?


TRI: i'll be looking at that soon (avoiding catastrophes comes first)


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## Nortorious (24 July 2016)

Triathlete said:


> I have to disagree with you.
> With the chart you posted .
> 
> We could already see that the market had begun to top out in August 1987 at least two months before the crash in Oct 1987.
> ...




+1 for this post


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## Nortorious (24 July 2016)

grah33 said:


> just wondering Nort and other share traders , what is your approach to scheduled news (since reporting season is upon us).   are u avoiding getting into trades with earnings etc reports coming up on known dates?  or u don't care if shares  start gapping (up or down) the next day on you?
> 
> 
> TRI: i'll be looking at that soon (avoiding catastrophes comes first)




I personally don't follow/worry about the news as I'm too busy to be paying attention on reporting dates etc.

With the right position size and risk management, it's not an issue. You might get stopped out even if you weren't expecting it or you may have a nice run that you didn't foresee. Most charts are able to put you in favourable situations when you can read them but there are also times when you can be blindsided.... that's trading.


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## grah33 (26 July 2016)

Makes sense Nort, makes  sense.  generally speaking why on earth would I consider exiting b4 reports when the  investors aren't even doing that? They're waiting for the news, and hoping it's going to be good.  Thank you.



Tri: Nort knows more so  listen to him of course... although I do see that around September consolidation occurs, and in the bigger picture it's when 2480 is broken that the heavy selling for a few days occurs.  I don't know if all of your long term investing positions would have hit stop loss by then, in that heavy week of selling before the gap occurred (hopefully they would). but the gap doesn't seem too big.   Perhaps it's the people who don't bother with stop losses that get into trouble.  And that is why i suspect many people lost lots of money in 2008 crash – they assumed the market would turn around.


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## Triathlete (26 July 2016)

grah33 said:


> Tri: Nort knows more so  listen to him of course... although I do see that *around September consolidation occurs*, and in the bigger picture it's when 2480 is broken that the heavy selling for a few days occurs.  I don't know if all of your long term investing positions would have hit stop loss by then, in that heavy week of selling before the gap occurred (hopefully they would). but the gap doesn't seem too big.   Perhaps it's the people who don't bother with stop losses that get into trouble.  And that is why i suspect many people lost lots of money in 2008 crash – they assumed the market would turn around.





The consolidation that you mention in my opinion was the *Distribution phase at the market top* as players where starting to exit the market.....remember using the wave theory we had reached the peak....

 I said previously that the chart you put up was on an EW5,so if the wave theory holds up we should be on the lookout for the market to retrace, so now would be looking for an exit.

 Since you like using daily charts here are some of the exits that could have been taken at the time prior to the crash.

after the high of 2736.61 On the 25/08/1987

1. 3 bar count back or a Swing exit  @ 2634.57 on the 1/09/1987

2. Dow exit @ 2499.36 on the 21/09/1987.

If using the weekly chart we would have exited as below...

1. 3 bar count back @ 2592 on the 02/09/1987.

2. Dow exit @ 2499 on the 21/09/1987.


In Nov 2007 the XAO peaked on a wave 5 and the market retraced as expected.   

I like using the wave theory because although not full proof it can give a guide as to the likely direction of the market and price levels it could reach and when used with other techniques can be quite handy in your trading.


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## Boggo (26 July 2016)

Triathlete said:


> I like using the wave theory because although not full proof it can give a guide as to the likely direction of the market and price levels it could reach and when used with other techniques can be quite handy in your trading.




Seems to be more stability and consistency in the weekly charts at the moment, or for a while now.

The XAO turned around on the min Wave C on the way down, it's in a similiar area on the way up but generally it seldom repeats the down pattern.

Decision time at the moment but I am leaning towards continuation towards 5900 area.

Just my 

(click to expand)


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## Triathlete (27 July 2016)

Boggo said:


> Seems to be more stability and consistency in the weekly charts at the moment, or for a while now.
> 
> The XAO turned around on the min Wave C on the way down, it's in a similiar area on the way up but generally it seldom repeats the down pattern.
> 
> ...





Nice looking inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. If the pattern holds we can extend price 100% of the range between the head and the neckline which brings us towards 6120 that would be nice....Time will tell..!!


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## grah33 (28 July 2016)

tri: you seem to trust in those indicators a lot . don't know if that is a good thing...  i don't think though personally if i would follow those wave predictions and start exiting all my positions. to me there isn't much forecast of it happening before it did in that daily chart. but i think many or most of my positions may have stopped out by then.


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## Wyatt (10 August 2016)

Hi All,

IFN looking to bust out towards old highs. Better still to infigen and beyond. What a great stock.




Cheers,


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## Wyatt (12 August 2016)

Hi All,

Looks like SSM is a fair chance to run higher, nice volume today. Great long term chart, one of the rare few that starts in the bottom left and ends at the top right of pane.




Fortunately I do own this one.

Cheers,
Wyatt


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## Trendnomics (12 August 2016)

Wyatt said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Looks like SSM is a fair chance to run higher, nice volume today. Great long term chart, one of the rare few that starts in the bottom left and ends at the top right of pane.
> 
> ...




Currently riding this one nicely in both my portfolios.


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