# Easier for SP to go up or go down?



## Tyler Durden (18 March 2011)

Just been wondering, do you think it is easier for a SP to go up, or to go down? Or would it be the same? My friend said he was given an exercise where he had to pick which stocks would go down, and he said it wasn't as easy as it seemed.


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## Noddy (18 March 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Just been wondering, do you think it is easier for a SP to go up, or to go down? Or would it be the same? My friend said he was given an exercise where he had to pick which stocks would go down, and he said it wasn't as easy as it seemed.




Easier and quicker to go down.
Have a look at a share like PEN. Took a long time to go up, but no time at all to go down1.  Market doesn't always react to good news, but always reacts to bad news.
2. As share prices rise, punters will often buy more (top ups) and push price up.
    But as the share price falls they'll invariably sell the lot.


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## So_Cynical (18 March 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Just been wondering, do you think it is easier for a SP to go up, or to go down? Or would it be the same? My friend said he was given an exercise where he had to pick which stocks would go down, and he said it wasn't as easy as it seemed.




This is share market 101 stuff Tyler...you really need to do some work.


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## Julia (18 March 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> This is share market 101 stuff Tyler...you really need to do some work.



You're right, but Tyler is trying to learn from this forum, so if you are telling him to '
do some work' maybe point him in the right direction.

Tyler, I doubt that it's overall possible to generalise and say stocks are more likely to go either up or down.  There are so many variables, both in global and national conditions, and as regards individual companies.

How about you think about it?   What do you think will influence the SP of any given company?  Come up with , say, 5 companies, and tell us why you think they are a buy or a sell.   

I'm sure several forum members will be happy to comment on your suggestions.


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## Sean K (18 March 2011)

Up by the stairs and down by the elevator.


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## Tyler Durden (18 March 2011)

Julia said:


> You're right, but Tyler is trying to learn from this forum, so if you are telling him to '
> do some work' maybe point him in the right direction.
> 
> Tyler, I doubt that it's overall possible to generalise and say stocks are more likely to go either up or down.  There are so many variables, both in global and national conditions, and as regards individual companies.
> ...




Well that's the thing. I always thought it was harder for it to go up, but now I'm not so sure. If I had to bet my life that BHP would go up or down on Monday, I'm not so sure it'd be an easy decision. It's almost the same odds as black/red in roulette.


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## Wysiwyg (18 March 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> It's almost the same odds as black/red in roulette.



There's your system. Then simply add some technical/fundamental analysis and there is the basics of securities trading. Mind you a 5% gain overnight in the U.S. I would be bias up.


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## Julia (18 March 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Well that's the thing. I always thought it was harder for it to go up, but now I'm not so sure. If I had to bet my life that BHP would go up or down on Monday, I'm not so sure it'd be an easy decision.



OK, so what do you think are the factors that will influence what the SP of BHP will do on Monday?


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## skyQuake (18 March 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> There's your system. Then simply add some technical/fundamental analysis and there is the basics of securities trading. Mind you a 5% gain overnight in the U.S. I would be bias up.




That would be a gap up and massive fade, probably close down knowing the SPI


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## Wysiwyg (19 March 2011)

skyQuake said:


> That would be a gap up and massive fade, probably close down knowing the SPI



 Silly question to begin with really. :


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## Tyler Durden (19 March 2011)

Julia said:


> OK, so what do you think are the factors that will influence what the SP of BHP will do on Monday?




I don't know?


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## wayneL (19 March 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Just been wondering, do you think it is easier for a SP to go up, or to go down?





IT DEPENDS!

There are dozens of dynamics to this question; certainly when the sky is perceived to be falling, the price will fall much quicker than it will ever rise.

But how common is that? 

In general, people WANT to buy and only really sell concurrently with a purchase of a new pair of underpants.

Down moves, though often violent are shorter than up moves. Look at SP500 and how it has grinded upwards for months with scarecly a retracement in sight. The most successful investing protocol over the long term has been "buy dips".

Nope, I reckon price moves more easily upwards, with down-moves only associated with wailing and gnashing of teeth.


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