# Black September/October coming?



## Warren Buffet II (18 August 2006)

Hi guys,

I am starting to think that after all this reporting season we are going to have another correction in what is called the Black October. 

1) Thinking about it, October has been mostly a bad month for investing in the sharemarket and large funds will start doing some clean up towards the mid-September, preparing for that month.

2) Interest rates are looming again and probably going up again befoer the end of the year.

3) Resource shares losing their shine even with the best results ever. Look at RIO best results ever and is lacking there, ZFX stuck, OSH plunch, CBH stuck and I want to see what happens with BHP next week with the biggest Australian result ever (probably the price will go up 1%)

So here we are, no going up no going down at the moment but seems the direction is down in my opinion.

Any thoughts?

WBII


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## money tree (18 August 2006)

Actually, October is one of the best months.

September is the worst I think.


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## Warren Buffet II (18 August 2006)

Interesting article

http://www.fpb.org/YT-IW15o5lMmUA.html

September 'worst month' for stock market
10/08/2006 	

London traders and shareholders across the country should brace themselves for a rough September, according to research by stocks and shares website ADVFN.

A historical analysis of the FTSE 100, an index comprising the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), has found that, despite October’s reputation for market plunges, September is the month most prone to crashing.

ADVFN’s analysis found that the FTSE 100 drops an average of 1.37% during September, making it the month that sees the worst market performance of the year.

The research showed that the FTSE 100 has posted negative returns in 14 of the last 22 Septembers.

The study found that the much-maligned October has recorded an average index drop of just 0.25% over the same period, and if the effects of Black Monday in 1987, which helped account for the index plummeting 29.14% in a month, are excluded, October would see an average rise of 0.89%.

“Typically, investors get spooked by the month of October, with market events such as the stock market crash of October 1929, Black Monday in 1987 and the Asian currency crisis in October 1997 burned into their consciousness,” said Clem Chambers, chief executive officer of ADVFN.

“With so much focus on October, the poor returns of September are often overlooked. However, whilst it is interesting to note the worst and best performing months of the year, it pays for investors to remember that having a diversified portfolio will help defend them from crashes and other negative market anomalies.”

June is the second-worst performer, according to ADVFN, losing an average of 0.75% each year, while December is the best month for the FTSE 100 with the index climbing an average of 2.03%.


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## Realist (18 August 2006)

I tend to agree, September/October is usually a poor time.

And this one will probably be no exception.  May's correction was a nice reality check, and we could be in for another similar correction in the next 2 months.

Maybe you wanna short the SPI up to end of October?

And after the drop it'll be a great time to buy long.


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## Kauri (18 August 2006)

Something I came across a few years ago... is actually based on the ASX...


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## nizar (18 August 2006)

End of the year for funds in the US is september 30th, they will dump non-performers and lock in profits, no doubt


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## Big Jim (18 August 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> End of the year for funds in the US is september 30th, they will dump non-performers and lock in profits, no doubt



Which means they might pump them before dumping?


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2006)

Big Jim said:
			
		

> Which means they might pump them before dumping?



Fund managers tend to want to be seen as having been in the "right" stocks when they report, hence the desire to get rid of anything that didn't perform and keep those that did (whether or not they will perform well in the future being and entirely different matter).


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 August 2006)

I reckon the last few months have been pretty black. If we dont get a spike shortly of all the big boys, BHP etc and 'Black September" comes their SP would have done nothing for 6 months, despite the quite obvious profits they have been making. Maybe November will see the bull run from hell, otherwise how is their SP reflecting the Companies profit increases.


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## dubiousinfo (19 August 2006)

Ford move will loosen supply of commodities
By Tom Stundza 
Purchasing 
August 18, 2006  

Ford Motor Co. slashed its second-half production plans and announced that 10 North American plants will be shut for extended periods much of the rest of the year as it tries to trim costs and deal with slumping sales of its light trucks. Upshot: A substantial amount of steel, aluminum, plastics, copper wiring, electronic components and other production materials will be available to buyers through the rest of the year. The automaker said Friday its moves will result in a 21% drop in production in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, as it makes 168,000 fewer vehicles. The company also trimmed third quarter production by an additional 20,000 vehicles from its previously announced production target, leaving it 78,000 vehicles short of year-ago production. "We know this decision will have a dramatic impact on our employees, as well as our suppliers," said a statement from Chairman and CEO Bill Ford. "This is, however, the right call for our customers, our dealers and our long-term future." 

Independent automotive market analyst Dennis DesRosiers e-mails Purchasing that “what’s behind the Ford move is that the U.S. market is very soft and is paying for all the foolish incentive dollars poured into the market over the last few years. Pay me now or pay me more later. Well, it is later and the U.S. market is not going to get better without major incentives--and nobody can afford big incentives and nobody has the appetite for big incentive money.” Besides the fact the marketplace pie is shrinking, Desrosiers says that  “Ford continues to struggle in the market.” While the Dearborn, Mich., firm isn’t losing a lot of market share in North America, “they are losing some share and this creates a doubling up of the problem. To lose share in a declining market forces companies to react.”

Among the products targeted for production cuts is the F-series pickup truck, the nation's best-selling vehicle, but one which has seen its sales hurt by high gasoline prices. Ford's sales of the pickup were off 46% percent in July compared to a year earlier; for the year, sales are down 12.5%. The companies four F-series plants--in Kansas City, Mo., Norfolk, Va., Dearborn, Mich. and Louisville, Ky.--are among the plants that will see the additional downtime between now and the end of the year. The other six plants that will see periods of closure are in Chicago, St. Paul, Minn., Wayne and Wixom Mich., St. Thomas, Ontario, and another Louisville plant that makes the Ford Explorer and Mercury Mountaineer.

Some of the plants with additional downtime this year have already been identified by Ford for eventual closure as it tries to trim costs long term. The company plans to close 14 plants in the coming year as part of an effort to cut costs and return to profitability.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (19 August 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Something I came across a few years ago... is actually based on the ASX...





If you notice July had an 80% + probability of rising and it didn't so I wouldn't place too much value in the probabilities (ie they are not to be taken as testimonial)

The only way I can see a correction again in Sep/Oct is if there is a bit of a rally in the lead up, the mkt got whacked in May and has been going sideways for 3 months now, to fall again in Sep/Oct without a preceeding rally would signal a bear mkt, ie fall in may, then stagnent, then fall again,

Given the profit reports being released I find this hard to believe so while anything could happen, I think that we may see a rally into Sep/Oct, with a subsequent correction, the size of the correction will depend on the size of the rally.


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## Warren Buffet II (21 August 2006)

I actually believe the "rally" is happening now and will continue until the end of august beginning of September and then the market will go down.

Everything everywhere is slowing down, for instance US is going down (there are even worries of how fast) and China trying to slow down(interest rates up last friday), I believe something will happen soon.

Another problem which affects the mining companies are the costs, they are skyrocketing and those without enough diversification will suffer the most. I saw  this interview with the WPL CEO yesterday and even they are in the GAS/OIL mining industry their costs have increased 67%, and the CEO says we need to check exactly where we are spending each dollar we put in because of costs issues, I guess that statement is against any boom market that I can believe exist.

So, I believe a mini-rally in the next 2 3 weeks and then what I will call a September/October correction.

WBII


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## noirua (21 August 2006)

The problem with people all thinking something will happen, is they act together and create the situation themselves.


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## nizar (21 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> The problem with people all thinking something will happen, is they act together and create the situation themselves.




Precisely; the market works in mysterious ways...

Corrections become a self-fullfilling prophecy - last year the correction began on October 1


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## Dr Doom (21 August 2006)

I reckon we are already in a bear market, it's just that very few realise it. Just waiting for an X factor to tip the balence.

Whilever oil prices are above (_insert your price above $50 here_) there will be continual cost increase pressure on everything that is associated with oil use, which is pretty much everything.
The saving grace for Aust markets is the 'weight of super money' argument, holding the market together. Untill such time as there is a meaningful deteriation in the employment rate, the market will at worst tread water, go sideways, at best it will have spurts of pent up fund buying. All of that super money flooding in every week may even be finding a place in cash at 6%, but who wants to borrow in this climate (rising interest rates)?. 
Lots of money looking for a place but no one wants it. Sounds like we need a purging recession. (or a war, see how the US offloads excess money).

Bottom line - US consumers are in debt so deeply that a syncronised world downturn is a distinct possibility, with ramifications for Australia's resources, and in particular Perth.


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## Realist (12 September 2006)

It seems our predictions are proving to be correct.


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## nioka (12 September 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> The problem with people all thinking something will happen, is they act together and create the situation themselves.



a most correct ststement of this weeks events.Stop loss selling creates the trend that creates the trend etc. etc,( and don't the brokers love it.)


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## Realist (12 September 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> a most correct ststement of this weeks events.Stop loss selling creates the trend that creates the trend etc. etc,( and don't the brokers love it.)




Yes a self fulfilling prophecy!!

And yes stop-losses and people buying in agains suits the brokers just fine!


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## juddy (12 September 2006)

A market 'crash' just before the US mid-terms? I don't think the Republicans would let that transpire. 

Who believes in the PPT?


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## wayneL (12 September 2006)

juddy said:
			
		

> A market 'crash' just before the US mid-terms? I don't think the Republicans would let that transpire.
> 
> Who believes in the PPT?




Good point Juddy  

It's interesting that only the resource sector is being crunched (why the ASX is screwed). Otherwise, in the industrial stocks, it's business as usual.

Oil selling off, along with gold (will only hurt those pesky lefty liberal pinko apocalypic types) may actually be good for the Neocons.


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## GreatPig (12 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> It's interesting that only the resource sector is being crunched (why the ASX is screwed). Otherwise, in the industrial stocks, it's business as usual.



Yeah, most of my investment stocks were up today, BHP being the concrete boots until I cut the rope early this morning.

The other couple of resource stocks I had in my trading portfolio took a hammering, one down around 8% and the other around 4%. In fact, the trading portfolio had an overall bad day today in that everything was down - including the put warrant  (just my luck to take a put warrant on one of the few stocks to hold its price during a 2.5% drop in the XAO)!

GP


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## Out Too Soon (13 September 2006)

I'm down 5% on BHP at the moment (silly me for buying when I did), but it's only giving me the jitters, i.e it don't hurt 'cause I wont sell this Blue chip at a loss Black October or not, (at least not until next year some time), what does hurt is those @*$%%# CCL shares I've started to ditch after 12 months of misery. If I was patient enough I suppose I should hang onto the coke shares too, but to hell with that, I'm a lot more patient than ppl that r ditching BHP at the moment.  
 :they say patience is a virtue, others say it's just a good strategy.


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## GreatPig (13 September 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> they say patience is a virtue



They also say there's just the quick and the dead...


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## Realist (15 September 2006)

another poor day today...

Bad week overall for the ASX despite a good week in the US.


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## Halba (15 September 2006)

yes what is happenin..my portfolio is trashed


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## Realist (15 September 2006)

Halba said:
			
		

> yes what is happenin..my portfolio is trashed




People are predicting a fall in commodity prices, a fall in the ASX, and bad times ahead.

The very fact that so many people are talking about it gives me alot of confidence.

When people say things like "this will go on forever", or "everyone will be rich" or "it can only go up" is when you need to worry.


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## wayneL (15 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> People are predicting a fall in commodity prices, a fall in the ASX, and bad times ahead.
> 
> The very fact that so many people are talking about it gives me alot of confidence.
> 
> When people say things like "this will go on forever", or "everyone will be rich" or "it can only go up" is when you need to worry.




Note on contrarian theory: It is now so well known it is in danger of becoming a cliche'. In fact it is now so depreciated as an indicator that I no longer take any notice. I am seeing that any more than two people with the same opinion and people are invoking the contrarian indicator.

The truth is, people are still unbelievably bullish on resources... particularly where I live.

Before invoking the the "contrarian indicator"... and indeed before we see any new continuation of a possible bull market in resources, we need to see a capitulation sell-off.

That ain't happened yet. A few more down moves should break the heart of the numpties that I know, going by there emotions/nervousness at the moment, but the Chindia perpetual boom theory is still strong (and wrong).


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## Realist (15 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> The truth is, people are still unbelievably bullish on resources... particularly where I live.





But Wayne, BHP and RIO both have P/E ratios less than 9 based on conservative 2007 estimated earnings, and a PER of about 10 for FY06 earnings.


If you think PER's of 9 are overly bullish you are dreaming!!    

Look at some of the US PER's of major companies, they make BHP and RIO look as cheap as chips!

not only that, but they have cash to burn.....


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## swingstar (15 September 2006)

Is _everyone_ bearish? The thread _Why all the red?_ indicates to me that people are actually bullish. There's not much in the news, except for housing. Journos are bullish or bearish depending on the day. 

There were some wild bearish comments (well, enough to invoke responses like these) like there are now before the 30s, so I agree with wayneL re: contrarian view. 

"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, *such as (bears) have predicted.* I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

Edit: Ok, it's not the Why all the red? thread I was talking about... I'm sure there was a thread I saw the other day of people quite bullish, maybe on another forum.


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## professor_frink (15 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> But Wayne, BHP and RIO both have P/E ratios less than 9 based on conservative 2007 estimated earnings, and a PER of about 10 for FY06 earnings.
> 
> 
> If you think PER's of 9 are overly bullish you are dreaming!!
> ...




Just out of curiosity Realist(or any other fundies out there),

What has been BHP/RIO P/E ratios at the top of other bullmarkets?

Is there anywhere I can find out what a companies EPS is going back for the last 20 years to find out for myself?


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## Realist (15 September 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Just out of curiosity Realist(or any other fundies out there),
> 
> What has been BHP/RIO P/E ratios at the top of other bullmarkets?
> 
> Is there anywhere I can find out what a companies EPS is going back for the last 20 years to find out for myself?




I do not know, but Commsec shows up to 10 years of EPS. So you could work it out I suppose.

Either way a PER of 9 or 10 is obviously low, and a commodity price drop is already built into the price. What if commodities go up?  They are tremendously undervalued if that happens, and it is not impossible - nobody knows but everyone seems to be guessing they'll drop.


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## professor_frink (15 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I do not know, but Commsec shows up to 10 years of EPS. So you could work it out I suppose.




Cheers. I'll go have a quick peak(just gotta try and remember what my login used to be!)



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> Either way a PER of 9 or 10 is obviously low, and a commodity price drop is already built into the price. What if commodities go up?  They are tremendously undervalued if that happens, and it is not impossible - nobody knows but everyone seems to be guessing they'll drop.




At face value, a PER of 9-10 does appear to be low. Not being heavily into fundamental investing, that doesn't really say much though.


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## wayneL (15 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I do not know, but Commsec shows up to 10 years of EPS. So you could work it out I suppose.
> 
> Either way a PER of 9 or 10 is obviously low, and a commodity price drop is already built into the price. What if commodities go up?  They are tremendously undervalued if that happens, and it is not impossible - nobody knows but everyone seems to be guessing they'll drop.




Realist.

Commodities markets are way different to stock markets. Pull up any long term chart of any commodity and you will see periods like this in the past.

You will also see evidence of the truism that commodities will eventually collapse under their own weight. All bull markets correct, many to their "nominal" mean, i.e. not even allowing for inflation. The only exception possible is oil, being a finite resource, and seemingly coming to the end of its supply possibilities (even this is arguable)

Gold for example, *still* hasn't taken out it's 1980 high (and might not in this cycle, we shall see). Adjusted for inflation, we are nowhere even close. That can be interpreted bullishly of course and it is a valid view.

The thing is, commodity traders know this. The public don't, apparently.

In any investment, particularly anything to do with commodities (which Buffett won't touch I believe, nor any commoditized industries such as airlines) there must be a *substantial* *risk premium* for smart investors to be involved.

At a PE of 10, there really isn't adequate risk premium... in fact the risk has been discounted IMO. As China implodes, people will learn this lesson.


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## dubiousinfo (15 September 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Just out of curiosity Realist(or any other fundies out there),
> 
> What has been BHP/RIO P/E ratios at the top of other bullmarkets?
> 
> Is there anywhere I can find out what a companies EPS is going back for the last 20 years to find out for myself?






I dont know about BHP & RIO specifically, but in 87 I remember the blue chips were averging a PE of around 20+


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## nioka (15 September 2006)

Halba said:
			
		

> yes what is happenin..my portfolio is trashed



Remember you will lose if you sell. You may not if you hold. This will apply to most stocks all you need to know is which ones.


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## nioka (15 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Realist.
> As China implodes, people will learn this lesson.




If China implodes India will probably take over. I live in hope not despair. But then I don't risk anything I can't afford.


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## dubiousinfo (15 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Realist.
> 
> Commodities markets are way different to stock markets. Pull up any long term chart of any commodity and you will see periods like this in the past.
> 
> ...






The thing is, will it happen next week,  next month,  next year,  2yrs time ??

It will happen but until it does, there is money to be made. (Money to be made when it does happen too, but thats another topic)

I got gun shy for a while after 87 and missed out on profits by getting out too soon. And again after the property crash.

Now, I dont care which way I have to jump what ever is on offer I will take. The market up or down (though I find up easier) - Property - commercial, industrial or residential (one of them is usually moving at any given time)


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## nioka (15 September 2006)

Is there anywhere I can find out what a companies EPS is going back for the last 20 years to find out for myself?[/QUOTE]

WE have the future to look towards, the past may not be relevant.


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## nizar (15 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> People are predicting a fall in commodity prices, a fall in the ASX, and bad times ahead.
> 
> The very fact that so many people are talking about it gives me alot of confidence.
> 
> When people say things like "this will go on forever", or "everyone will be rich" or "it can only go up" is when you need to worry.




Agree 100% Realist

My views on the way the DOW will play out:

The DOW is looking so bullish, any sort of weakness is used as a buying opportunity and buying begets more buying. Typical bullmarket behaviour.

Tonights CPI data is partially factored in. If oil remains in the 65-70 range, which is a fair drop from its highs, and the CPI is bullish ie. slow steady growth, inflation contained, then we will break through 12,000 by end of the year easily IMO

And seriously - with sooo many technical analysts calling for a fall, it seems like the perfect time to be buying stocks or going long. Remember the "guru" that called 10,000 for the NASDAQ back in the dot.com fever?? And when every1 is saying buy, buy, buy, the DOW will reach 13,000 in the next month or so, and u get the masses buying and so much euphoria, thats when u sell. Its contrarian investing at its finest.

*This correction (september/october) is so eagerly anticipated by just about EVERYONE that (i think) its reasonable to expect it wont happen? Since when do corrections come right when u expect them to? * 

But having said all that, CPI which shows glass "half empty", and it could all start tumbling down..

For now im on the bulls side 

This has nothing to do with us of course, as we tend to ignore the US lead the last few months, and we are lagging behind everything FTSE, DAX and DOW.. but after leading the gains for the last few years, i guess the good times cant last forever

As for the XJO: there is already so much money on the sidelines since may-june, and u cant have a crash if ur not even rallying or in a bullmarket. Any selling will be limited.

As u say Realist, people are predicting commodity prices to fall and that they are at the top of their cycle. The thing is, historically, gold/commodity bullmarkets have coincided with bear markets for stocks... so how does that work in terms of where we go from here?

ANd also - how far does every1 here think oil is gonna fall?
The bottom i think will be us$60/barrel coz thats probably the point where OPEC decides to turn off the taps.


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## Halba (15 September 2006)

i have some good stocks that are showing big losses. i also have some stocks showing big losses which i am prepared to wait for as their problem is not due to the company (i.e. it is outside their control)

just time to wait i guesss, let time in the market hopefully solve my dilemma


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## wayneL (15 September 2006)

There is a factor in the financial markets that has not been present in previous cycles...............

.................actually there are two. One however was present, but a long time ago.

1/ Bubblevision (Bloomberg et al)

2/ Credit expansion.

I leave the ramifications of these to y'all as self evident.


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## Private Investor (15 September 2006)

Looking at global and local fundamentals, I don't think we are heading for an '87 style crash any time soon.

Below is the weekly XJO chart.  I think we will just continue to track sideways, but with a negative bias though imo,  for the next 2-3 months within the current trading range from last June.  

With a basically even balance between potentially good and bad global economic scenarios I just don't see any reason for our market to break out of the current trading range until something "unusual" happens, +ve or -ve.


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## KaneX (15 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> At a PE of 10, there really isn't adequate risk premium... in fact the risk has been discounted IMO. *As China implodes, people will learn this lesson*.




WayneL,

Dont want to steer too far off course here but am just wandering why this opinion on China?


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## Knobby22 (15 September 2006)

I'm on the bulls side. The commodity boom is not ready to end yet.

Bears always predict something happening sooner than reality.


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 September 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> I'm on the bulls side. The commodity boom is not ready to end yet.
> 
> Bears always predict something happening sooner than reality.



My apologies for the late reply @Knobby22.

I'm no genius on markets but the NYSE is what guides me in September and October and it is not looking good overnight. 

My pockets are zipped tight shut and I will await a lead from Wall St. 

Our Quarry which is keeping the country afloat while the baristas starve in our cities is headed for further low commodity prices.

Save for Gold imo. Then I like Gold so ignore that.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (9 September 2021)

bought in May and went astray?


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## Craton (9 September 2021)

= Just my thoughts.

On the local front, surely a correction is in play, long overdue me thinks as from around 25 Oct 2020 our market has been climbing plus there seems to be a few too many head winds going forward (trade, climate change, commodity prices, pandemic et al) and from the chart, since Oct 2020 there doesn't seem to be anywhere near a 10% correction.




Globally, as we mostly take our lead from Wall St, not looking good there either, no major correction since around the same time, 25 Oct 2020. Anyways, what do I know, the Fed will continue to print fiat paper, so all's good and full steam ahead right? (insert cynic smillie here)




I'm with GG, am keeping the powder dry for some bottom feeding to come. The questions are when, how long will it take and at what level will a perceived bottom be found or worse, will there be a protracted bear market coming?

Problem with that is, without the clarity of a crystal ball and the ability to time travel into the future, who knows huh? 🤭


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## Greynomad99 (9 September 2021)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I am starting to think that after all this reporting season we are going to have another correction in what is called the Black October.
> 
> ...



Like "go away in May" I think some of these theories about certain times of the year being particularly bad are overstated. 

I just had a quick look at the last 5 years and here is what it showed

YearSept openOct closeChange%2019​6812​6688​-124​-1.8%​2018​6319​5830​-489​-7.7%​2017​5714​5909​195​3.4%​2016​5433​5318​-115​-2.1%​2015​5207​5239​32​0.6%​

2018 was a standout bad year when prices fell for 4 months in a row starting with September. Every year (apart from 2018) if September was down then October was up. Probably more data required to definitively say September/October is a time to crawl into one's cave.


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## Craton (9 September 2021)

Speaking in terms of Wall St, one thing that often isn't mentioned is the fact that the USA has a Jan/Dec financial year as opposed to our Jul/Jun financial year. From my understanding there's "triple witching" at the end of every quarter so end of Sep could impact adversely on Oct and the remaining quarter of the year.
Again, just my


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## Knobby22 (9 September 2021)

Yes, well a very red day today. 
I suppose the highly geared will have to get out and exacerbate this.


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## wayneL (9 September 2021)

Anyone who was on this forum 15 years ago (holy sh¹t) no set I was a mega bear and the time and that the GFC was really no surprise whatsoever... Although it did come some years after I thought it would.

But I never accounted for the interference of Central banks in the business cycle.

Accordingly all day I was still notionally bearish even after GFC, I learnt that Central Banks could kit the can down the road a hell of a lot longer than I thought, and probably would do so for some time to come.

Since then, let's just say I have been a bullish bear.

But I am now coming around to the opinion that the ultimate Reckoning is coming. It might not, is probably not imminent. But it is getting closer.

Hence, I really do think it is @ss covering time now.

FWIW


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## StockyGuy (9 September 2021)

Waaay too early to say we're there yet, but question is "when to say when" to start buying again once a clear move down is evident.  Say we're down 15%, is that too early?  You don't wanna be waiting for 50% correction, only to see it reverse back up at a rate of knots after hitting 49% (or awaiting 20% and it turns around at 19% etc).  Obviously this is an unanswerable question and is different according to every big downturn in history.

Those who hold off buying till close to the bottom, and then buy like a maniac, are either very lucky or very intelligent/skilled.  Some would contend only very lucky lol.  If one was THAT good they'd maybe be shorting all the way down.  The latter kind of posts tend not to age very well.


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## Joules MM1 (9 September 2021)

Craton said:


> Speaking in terms of Wall St, one thing that often isn't mentioned is the fact that the USA has a Jan/Dec financial year as opposed to our Jul/Jun financial year. From my understanding there's "triple witching" at the end of every quarter so end of Sep could impact adversely on Oct and the remaining quarter of the year.
> Again, just my




next friday 17th last hour of trade on that day (US time)


			https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/options/Cboe2021OPTIONSCalendar.pdf


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## Gunnerguy (9 September 2021)

StockyGuy said:


> Waaay too early to say we're there yet, but question is "when to say when" to start buying again once a clear move down is evident.  Say we're down 15%, is that too early?  You don't wanna be waiting for 50% correction, only to see it reverse back up at a rate of knots after hitting 49% (or awaiting 20% and it turns around at 19% etc).  Obviously this is an unanswerable question and is different according to every big downturn in history.
> 
> Those who hold off buying till close to the bottom, and then buy like a maniac, are either very lucky or very intelligent/skilled.  Some would contend only very lucky lol.  If one was THAT good they'd maybe be shorting all the way down.  The latter kind of posts tend not to age very well.



I've been selling AXJO 8,500, 8,200, and 7,800 (Oct/Nov/Dec) puts since mid August.
...... but I got busted with the massive fall in BHP due to the London news a couple of weeks ago.
Gunnerguy.


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## wayneL (9 September 2021)

This should probably go in the David Hunter thread, but equally apt here IMO


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## DannyB0000 (9 September 2021)

There’s are a risk inflation might be persistently high instead of transitory like the US Fed is insisting to calm the markets.  If the US Fed loses control of inflation towards the end the year, it will force central banks to raise interest rate much quicker.  If interest rates rise to high it could bankrupt the US govt. 

US national debt is currently 23 trillion dollars, it was 6.3 trillion in 2008.  You had double digit interest rates and inflation in the 1970’s, great for Gold prices, but not great for the Stockmarket.


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## qldfrog (9 September 2021)

DannyB0000 said:


> There’s are a risk inflation might be persistently high instead of transitory like the US Fed is insisting to calm the markets.  If the US Fed loses control of inflation towards the end the year, it will force central banks to raise interest rate much quicker.  If interest rates rise to high it could bankrupt the US govt.
> 
> US national debt is currently 23 trillion dollars, it was 6.3 trillion in 2008.  You had double digit interest rates and inflation in the 1970’s, great for Gold prices, but not great for the Stockmarket.



Just remember that if markets crash, gold will also initially crash..
So either you buy gold now and keep hanging..i have been heavy gold and silver.. physical... Or you try to time to buy at the lows


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## divs4ever (10 September 2021)

*** Like "go away in May" I think some of these theories about certain times of the year being particularly bad are overstated.  **

 i believe the REST of the quote is ' come back St. Leger Day '  St.Leger Day   relates to a major horse race ( held in several nations )  but from memory is held mid-September   ( very convenient for those that like a nice Northern Hemisphere Summer holiday  )

 Sooo  considering there is a slide in the appropriate  time ( you wouldn't want to be buying in at the absolute top of the market , when you return for vacation , would you  ?? )  i would be watching September  contracts and options expiry dates   for a signal on what could happen 

 now while we are in truly 'uncharted territory '  should we completely ignore history   history MIGHT rhyme since it is unlikely to be an exact repeat  .

 yes i believe the market will CRASH , eventually  ( assuming it didn't actually implode in September 2019  , and we have all been living in a sideshow  , and that IS possible , as well  )

 so we are led to believe  the global economy is being kept up by extraordinary gymnastics 

 i have a loose strategy  for a big down ( correction or full-blown crash ) but also intend to keep some skin in the game  , just in case the market keeps climbing up to Xmas ( via a few bumps )

  ** Just remember that if markets crash, gold will also initially crash..
So either you buy gold now and keep hanging..i have been heavy gold and silver.. physical... Or you try to time to buy at the lows  **

my tweak on this  is nibbling away at gold and iron producers  , but watching for BIG drops 

 but yes history implies when a dip is obviously serious   , there is a rush to cash ( with a preference for US dollars ) which i take as a signal SOME folks are deleveraging positions  (  in an 'easy credit' world )

 some would already declare the US bankrupt BUT it is still officially the world benchmark currency ( despite Chinese efforts  to  move away from a Petrodollar centric world )

 so if the benchmark currency has no underlying trust in it where do we go  , some would say bitcoin ( or similar non-government crypto  ) some are pushing for issued digital currency  ( an investors nightmare , think of policy moves  without the burden of changing bank-notes and coins  , you could wake up tomorrow to  find two or three zeros  wiped off your savings  by a decision made during the night  and  some keystrokes at the Central bank 

 DYOR


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## frugal.rock (10 September 2021)

I saw the thread title and thought a particular individual, who seems to want the market to crash, had revived the thread.
But no. It's the honourable gold bug.😘 Mr GG.

I see that the gold price dropped because of the Fed news that there not really tapering yet, interest rates on hold.
My take is the market decided it was risk on again, despite punching new seemingly gravity defying highs lately, after all, gold is seen as a safe haven.

A sell down also in cryptos might confirm that, or may have just been coincidental, my take is confirmation.

Japan's all smiles. 😁
The China boat is a bit of a worry, but is anticipated to give a reprieve on commodity and PM's highs.
Bigger AUS companies generally overall have better bottom lines than they have had, probably thanks to stimulus. Record levels of divvys flowing back, again, I see that as stimulus finally making it back to the "patient" investors.

So, I expect a reprieve from the market anticipated taper tantrums.
Aus market today was due for a decent down day as there's a lot of skittish dumb money in the market at the moment, 9/11 remembrances today etc, and the skittish dumb money will inherently follow the lead it's given by the market.

Some money flows have gone back to banks and oil and what else I haven't worked out, staples I think?

I'd like to think that my thoughts of late of Aus market potentially  disconnecting from the US might come into play soon enough, but really, markets are so intertwined these days, I think that's a long shot, but not impossible.

Just my musings, and I'm not sure how long it is before next major meetings regarding tapering and QE etc, which the market will no doubt prepare for again in its usual timely fashion.

Cheers.


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## Greynomad99 (10 September 2021)

From a charting perspective there is no argument (well not in my mind anyway) that (a) we are due for a correction and (b) said correction will surely come as day follows night. But when is the unknown.
If we look at the XJO for the past 12 years it shows price has respected a large price channel and since the March 2020 Covid crunch try price has been respecting a tighter steeper channel as prices head back to where they might have been without the Covid anomaly (charting doesn't provide for anomalies - so this is a tag of my own). 


If we look at the recent price action in more detail it shows we have hit the ceiling and while a small overshoot is not impossible, the most likely scenarios from here are that price will seesaw sideways along the top channel of that larger price channel until something comes along to push the market into a correction or a bear market.  At the moment a fall to 6900 (XJO) would see a 9% fall from the recent highs which is close to the technical 10% correction. 


The red dashed line is a line of support that price has held above since February and yesterday price bounced ever so slightly off that support. I expect price will recover today but any recovery is being squeezed between said red support line and the top boundary of the large price channel - so I'd see a significant recovery unlikely. 
In short I see the start of lower prices has probably started. As always there will be the odd stock that goes against the flow and the occasional pattern break that results in short sharp gains for some stocks that are not near their highs. But when the market as a whole moves down those speculative rises are usually more restrained because they are swimming against the current.
Once we have a correction then there will be a period of recovery and new trading opportunities - before we do it all again!


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## over9k (10 September 2021)

We are now heading into what are being dubbed "post-growth economies" at a time when the mother of all debt chickens is coming home to roost. 

I got the overwhelming majority of my capital out of AU in the crash of last year. I only have degen spec plays outside of USA now.


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