# Australian Equities News and Views



## Sean K (12 October 2007)

I've really enjoyed bigdog's DJI finish up thread and thought this thread may be a good way of getting orientated before the open also. Will update it each morning, when possible. Cheers, kennas


0711 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks end lower, reversing from early gains that saw Dow hit a fresh record high of 14,198.10, with technology stocks hard hit by the mid-session swoon; "The epicenter was certainly technology, with Baidu taking the lead after J.P. Morgan shaved its third-quarter revenue estimate," said Jim Paulsen, at Well Capital Management. "Given that tech stocks have done so well, they have become sensitive to any negative news." Chinese Internet giant Baidu.com's ADRs ended down 10%, after being up as much as 4.7%, as word of Morgan's call got out; among other tech stocks Apple lost 2.7% after it had earlier been up 3.1% as Goldman Sachs lifted its price target and 4Q sales forecasts; PepsiCo fell 2.5% as the beverage maker's results beat Wall Street's expectations but the market noted weaker-than-expected volumes in North America. Wal-Mart gained 2.9% as the retailer boosted its 3Q earnings outlook, alleviating some concern about consumer spending; teen retailer Aeropostale added 9% as it posted a rise in September sales, while women's-wear retailer AnnTaylor Stores rose 5.2% as its sales also beat Wall Street's projections. But J.C. Penney dropped 7% as its same-store sales fell 4.6% in the month. In late trading Electronic Arts fell 0.5% as the videogame maker reached an agreement with Elevation Partners to acquire VG Holdings; content delivery netowork services provider Limelight Networks rose 9.5% on raising its 3Q revenue forecasts. Dow ended down 0.5%, Nasdaq down 1.4%, Philly Semicons down 2.3%. (SRO) 

0804 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD pushes into fresh 23-year highs in New York trade on strong Wall Street lead before pulling back on equities rally reversal, says Macquarie Bank foreign exchange associate director Jo Masters. Pair hit 0.9060, highest since May 1984. AUD/USD unlikely to breach recent high in Asian trade ahead of tonight's U.S. retail sales data but will move higher in longer term, Masters says. Expects support at 0.8980 level today. Weak Wall Street lead could weigh on Australian stocks, hindering AUD/USD push higher. Pair last at 0.9004.(SRH) 

0827 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS cuts CSL (CSL.AU) to Neutral from Buy and price target to A$105.32 from A$108.70 to reflect weaker USD/AUD. "Despite FX impact, we continue to rate CSL as a core portfolio holding given the rollout of liquid IVIG as a key catalyst," UBS says. "Over the next three years we expect core EPS to offer 25% compound annual growth rate with FY10 core net profit almost doubling. Liquid IVIG capacity could double again post 2010. Short-term catalysts include Gardasil September 2007 quarter sales result (Oct. 22), 3:1 stock split (Oct. 24) and 4.5% buyback (not commenced)." Last trade A$101.67. (ABH) 

0829 [Dow Jones] Weakness in Asian equities could push AUD/USD down to 0.8940, says National Australia Bank senior currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos. Wall Street rally reversal overnight pulled pair back from fresh 23-year high in late U.S. trade; Asian equities markets could follow weak U.S. lead, reducing risk appetite for high-yielding currencies. Kyriakopoulos says, "The yield story for the AUD remains supportive but will need to see an RBA hike to push AUD/USD up significantly." Pair last at 0.9015. (SRH) 

0835 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch cuts Qantas (QAN.AU) to Neutral, says stock trading above price objective of A$5.82. "We see potential for value creation from Qantas' planned restructuring but we think this is largely reflected in the current share price," analyst says. Sees risk that timing and value creation of restructure could fall short of some expectations. Also points to upside risk to market's fuel cost forecasts based on recent fuel price strength. QAN last at A$5.97. (LMF) 

0841 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch says while Bank Of Queensland's (BOQ.AU) FY result was solid on strong volumes, stock looks overvalued and there are no catalysts. "We struggle paying 19x (sector around 14x) for a stock delivering only marginally better than sector EPS growth historically," analyst says. Keeps Sell rating on BOQ, stock last at A$19.40. (LMF) 

0843 [Dow Jones] UBS raises Tattersall's (TTS.AU) FY08 and FY09 EPS estimates 1.7% to 21.9 cents from 21.5 cents and 0.6% to 25.6 cents from 25.4 cents to reflect lower depreciation and amortization costs in FY08 given a 10-year lottery license extension in Victoria state and the removal of costs associated with its instant lotteries business there. Tattersall's yesterday gained a license renewal for its lotto products in Victoria, but the instant lottery ticket license was awarded to rival Intralot (INLOT.AT). "Whilst the lottery monopoly was broken, we note the products foregone were more marginal in terms of profitability," UBS says. Keeps at Neutral, A$4.65 price target. Last trade A$4.13. (ABH) 

0853 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mixed. DJIA down 0.5% at 14015.12, Nasdaq down 1.4%, S&P 500 down 0.5%. Nymex crude up US$1.78 to US$83.08. Comex gold up US$10.70 at US$756.70. U.S. 10-year bond yield down 0.7 point at 4.64%. AUD/USD up at 0.9008. LME copper down 1.2%, nickel up 1.9%. London-listed BHP Billiton up 4.4%, Rio Tinto up 3.5%. SPI futures down 26 points at 6800. S&P/ASX 200 last 6771.9. (ABH) 

0858 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO cuts Austereo (AEO.AU) to Hold from Buy on the back of recent share price rally, which has pushed stock above broker's A$2.42 price target. "The stock is now trading in line with peers and we believe it is fairly valued at current levels," analyst says. AEO last at A$12.15. (LMF) 

0905 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD to hold close to 0.90 in Asia on scant local data, Citigroup director of economics Stephen Halmarick says; adds pair could be sold on weaker lead for equities but likely well supported by fundamentals in longer-term. "A lot of interest in the commodity price story and obviously the data flow suggests the RBA needs to put rates up again." Trade to remain subdued before U.S. retail sales, PPI date later, G7 meeting next week; pair now at 0.9011.(SRH)


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## dutchie (12 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*

g'day Kennas

Great post. Keep them coming.

Cheers

Dutchie


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## ta2693 (12 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*

Thank you. very helpful information.


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## Sean K (15 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*

0631 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures rose to new settlement record, gaining for 4th straight session on concerns of potentially big shortfall in supplies ahead of Northern Hemisphere winter; November Nymex up 61 cents to $83.69 /bbl, Brent on ICE up 40 cents to record-high $80.55. "We're still looking at a draw in inventories for the fourth quarter, which is constructive for prices," said Andy Lebow of MF Global. Gold futures down on profit-taking after recent highs; December gold down $2.90 to $753.80/oz on Comex, down $3.10 to $753.90 on CBOT. "Gold prices retreated from Thursday's lofty peaks as a mild bounce in the U.S. dollar tempered the bullish tone just a bit," said Jon Nadler of Kitco Bullion Dealers in research note. December silver down 8.2 cents to $13.903/oz on Comex, down 10 cents to $13.898 on CBOT; Nymex platinum, palladium fell on profit-taking; January platinum down $6.20 to $1,414.20/oz, December palladium down $6.45 to $379.50. LME base metals rallied on general USD weakness, but fundamental drivers expected to return this week, keeping metals mixed; more record highs ahead for lead, with stocks low, falling, although "there's a question of how much higher it can go," said Daniel Smith of Standard Chartered Bank. Copper down $15 to $8065, lead down $70 to $3820, zinc up $61 to $3125, aluminum up $39 to $2505, nickel up $505 to $32000, tin up $470 to $16445. (BRD) 

0637 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks rose Friday, helped by gains in blue-chips and better-than-expected September retail sales data; McDonald's rose 1.4% on 5.9% on-year rise in September global same-store sales; BEA Systems jumped 38% after Oracle made a $6.66 billion offer for the business-management software maker; Oracle shed 2 cents to 22.44. General Motors +6.6% on news its market share in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East increased to 17.5%, representing best 3Q share since 1997. General Electric lost 1.4% despite a 14% rise in 3Q profit as analysts noted that profitability in some of GE's divisions dipped a bit; Citigroup dropped 0.9% after Deutsche Bank cut its rating on stock to sell from buy following CEO Charles Prince's move to shake up Citigroup's top ranks; in late trade, Merck rose 1.5% on news an FDA panel had approved company's new type of HIV drug. Dow closed +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.2%, Philly semicons +1%. (SHN) 

0758 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD pushes to new 23-year high of 0.9071 in early Asian trade as investors focus on strong economic fundamentals, commodity price surge, notes Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts; says as-expected U.S. retail sales data, Wall Street strength are allowing AUD to rally on positive global growth outlook. Expect pair to trade in 0.9040-0.9070 range on day, unlikely to push above 0.9100. Roberts says Australian federal election date announcement is unlikely to have significant impact on AUD/USD. Pair last at 0.9067, up 20 points from Friday. (SRH) 

0835 [Dow Jones] Announcement of Australian election date for Nov. 24 could scale back expectations of November interest rate rise, says National Australia Bank senior currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos; adds AUD/USD pullback could be good buying opportunity, with "a lot of good news factored into the AUD". NAB says "RBA most likely to hike of major central banks," risk-appetite improved. Expect 1-month target of 0.9050. Pair last at 0.9062.(SRH) 

0837 [Dow Jones] Both Australia's ruling Liberal-National coalition, main opposition Labor party likely to spend "an awful lot of money" in attempt to secure victory in Nov. 24 federal election, says ICAP senior economist Matthew Johnson, lifting near-term inflation prospects, risking more RBA rate hikes in 2008. Adds that if, as opinion polls suggest, Labor wins and scraps Australian Workplace Agreements, or individual contracts, employment growth will probably slow but wage growth will be slightly higher - again risking higher rates. Thinks RBA will hold off on November rate hike, while campaign in full swing, but will hike in December. (RAP) 

0843 [Dow Jones]Goldman Sachs JBWere says September sales for board sport retailers in U.S were mixed. "It is encouraging to see a solid sales result in PacSun (given their issues) and continued strong momentum in Zumiez," analyst says. "However, we note that sales momentum for the Pacific Sunwear group remains patchy, with momentum declining over September and that the U.S. mall-based branded boardsports retailers reported mixed sales." Adds it will be very important for sentiment towards BBG that it maintains solid growth in the U.S. following the issues highlighted at its FY07 result and the general macro concerns over the U.S. consumer. Maintains Buy; price target A$20.91 vs last trade A$16.21. (SVM) 

0859 [Dow Jones] Australia's ruling Liberal-National coalition faces strong chance of defeat in Nov. 24 federal election, latest Newspoll published in the Australian newspaper shows. Main opposition Labor party maintains 12-point lead on two-party preferred basis of 56% vs 44% for coalition in poll taken Oct. 12-15 steady on previous poll Sept. 28-30; if repeated on election day Labor will win office in landslide victory. Analysts say election poses inflation, rate hike risk as both sides roll out generous spending packages in bid to win voter support. (RAP) 


0903 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD retreats 20 points from recent 23-year high on reduced expectations of 25bp RBA hike in November as Australian election campaign commences, says Westpac senior currency strategist Robert Rennie; adds U.S. data have been predominantly above expectations, reducing prospects of further Fed rate cuts. "Rogue low" 3Q NZ CPI earlier today prompting expectations Australian 3Q CPI due Oct. 24 could be also be low. "There's going to be turbulence and there's going to be airpockets, and I think we hit a bit of an airpocket this morning." AUD last at 0.9043.(SRH) 

0904 [Dow Jones]Merrill Lynch maintains buy on Perpetual (PPT.AU) after announcing its funds under management. "While up A$400 million or 1% on the A$39.1 billion balance at August 07, in our view, the result is disappointing in that the benefit of buoyant equity markets was largely offset by the impact of A$600 million in institutional outflows over the month," analyst says. However, expects 1H08 profit guidance due at PPT's AGM on Oct. 30 will surprise.(SVM) 

0911 [Dow Jones] AGL Energy (AGK.AU) downgrades its earnings guidance for FY08 as margins squeezed in its energy retail business. Now expects FY08 earnings between A$330 million and A$360 million; previous guidance for between A$380 million and A$400 million. AGL also cites strong AUD, lower oil profits from PNG, depreciation on its Torrens Island power station and higher wholesale gas costs. Earnings downgrade likely to weigh on shares at open. Investors may also react negatively to news AGL is now reviewing its outlook for medium term earnings per share growth of between 15% a year. AGL last traded at A$15.63.(APW)


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## Sean K (16 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*

0552 [Dow Jones] Global markets likely to remain volatile over coming weeks after Citigroup's (C) 57% slump in 3Q profits, dour comments on 4Q outlook, says ANZ Bank in report; "Further bad news could well trigger another round of risk aversion, with U.S. equities likely to bear the brunt given its sharp moves higher over recent weeks." Says warning from Citigroup that late payments on home loans, consumer credit may worsen in 4Q has spooked market; investors now likely on edge as Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase & Co, which have significant consumer, leveraged loan operations, due to report results this week. (SHN) 

0624 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude soared above $86/bbl, continuing Friday's rally as Turkey-Iraq tensions mounted, USD weakened, signs of tight supply situation ahead boosted prices to new records. November Nymex ended up $2.44 to $86.13, Brent on ICE up $2.20 to $82.75. Possible Turkish assault on Kurdish rebels in Iraq gives "image of troops waiting to go into northern Iraq, inflating expectations," said Brad Samples of Summit Energy Services; adds conflict is "probably what's giving us the impetus for this strong move up today." Combination of factors pushed spot gold to 28-year high, futures to 17-month high; weak USD, higher crude plus speculative buying supported. December gold up $8.40 to $762.20/oz on Comex, up $8 to $761.80 on CBOT; December silver down 4.8 cents to $13.855 on Comex, off 3.2 cents to $13.859 on CBOT after earlier $14.111 high; January platinum up $9.20 to $1,423.40, December palladium down $2.35 to $3.7715. LME base metals slipped from Monday's speculation-driven intraday highs as high crude price, precious metals strength added to bullish sentiment. Base metals "relatively bullish" after LME week, said Calyon Financial at Michael Widmer; added metal supply, demand going forward will largely be affected by China's metal consumption, production. Copper up $85 to $8150, lead down $5 to $3815, zinc up $10 to $3135, aluminum down $12 to $2493, nickel down $50 to $31950, tin up $105 to $16550. (BRD) 

0635 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD lower early in New Zealand on selloff in AUD/JPY in sympathy with rising risk aversion; traders say selloff in U.S. stocks overnight, Citigroup's dour 4Q outlook comments following sharp 3Q profit fall combine to weigh on high yielders. But AUD remains supported on dips with gold prices soaring to new highs overnight; pair last 0.8992 vs 0.9053 late in Sydney yesterday. Liberal-National coalition government's pledge of A$34 billion in tax cuts if re-elected next month also has slightly raised prospect of RBA hiking in November. AUD/JPY last 105.55 vs 106.49 in Sydney yesterday. (SHN) 

0730 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks finished sharply lower on worries sparked by disquieting comments from Citigroup; "I think people are wondering whether the message that Citigroup sent about uncertainty will be the exception or the rule during earnings season," said Larry Adam, chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank. "And oil at record highs stands to put pressure on corporate margins and the holiday shopping season." Citigroup lost 3.4% after the largest U.S. bank by market cap posted a 57% decline in 3Q profit, delivered lukewarm comments on its outlook and cautioned that the market for some fixed-income products may not rebound; other investment banks followed Citigroup lower with Lehman Brothers losing 3.6%, Merrill Lynch off 2.1%, and Bear Stearns down 2%. Surging crude oil prices pushed stocks of oil companies like ExxonMobil by 1.4%, while airlines suffered; US Airways slumped 6.5%. Strong gains were led by Biogen Idec, +19% as the maker of multiple-sclerosis drugs said it's evaluating a possible sale of the company after receiving several expressions of interest from potential buyers. Electronic test and measurement company Tektronix leapt 34% after its sale to industrial conglomerate Danaher; Danaher dropped 1.2%. Dow closed down 0.8%, Nasdaq off 0.9%, philly semicons flat at 487.37. (SHN) 

0809 [Dow Jones] Spot gold builds on strong overnight gains, up at fresh 28-year high of $758.90, up $2.00 vs NY close, gains on other commodity price rises, including oil scaling record highs of over $86/bbl; IMF states USD remains overvalued, pushing gold higher, notes HSBC analyst James Steel. Threat of Turkish invasion in Northern Iraq lends support. Creation of a $75 billion bank fund to buy mortgage-linked securities does little to stem safe-haven buying in gold, stirs disquiet on credit crisis fallout. (EFB) 

0816 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD likely to be capped at 0.9050 on weaker equities performance, National Australia Bank strategist John Kyriakopoulous says; adds AUD/USD hit fresh 23-year high of 0.9080 in U.S. trade on speculation of further RBA hikes fueled by government tax cut pledges. Soft guidance for CitiGroup in U.S. has weighed on equity markets, likely to add sell tone to Australian stocks keeping cap on AUD/USD. Pair last at 0.9001.(SRH) 

0832 [Dow Jones] Day 3 of Australia's federal election campaign has main opposition Labor Party under pressure to match ruling Liberal-National coalition's A$34 billion tax cut plan; both Labor leader Rudd, shadow Treasurer Swan agree lower taxes are good for economy, but say they need to study latest budget figures released yesterday before unveiling their own plan. While surprise announcement of coalition's tax plan may have given them upper hand early in campaign, it leaves room for Labor to trump the deal to secure its lead in recent voter surveys. That'll keep RBA on guard for impact of increased fiscal stimulus in already stretched economy. (RAP) 

0833 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere cuts AGL Energy (AGK.AU) target price to A$13 from A$16.36 on earnings downgrade. GSJBW also cuts earnings per share forecasts by 14% for FY08, 17% for FY09 and 15.9% for FY10. Says the downgrade seems to have surprised management, who have not yet quantified flow on effects for FY09 and beyond. "We believe the market will take time to get confidence back in the stock," GSJBW says. Maintains hold rating. AGL last traded at A$13.03. (APW) 

0836 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) to Neutral from Buy on the back of recent share price performance. Keeps 12-month share price target at A$60, notes stock is best performing bank year to date and since January, 2006 and is now on 5% premium to sector. "While we remain confident of CBA's outlook, this now appears to be reflected in its price," analyst says. CBA last at A$59.38. (LMF) 

0840 [Dow Jones] LME copper steady after initial strong start overnight on back of dollar weakness, higher oil prices, generally bullish sentiment following LME Week, says Standard Bank. But lower U.S. equities, concerns over credit crunch clip gains. U.S. data tonight include industrial production, expected up 0.1%; tomorrow sees release of CPI, housing starts, Fed's Beige Book. Optimistic bias will support base metals in short term, likely to shrug off inventory increases, react well to price-supportive news, says trader. Market will continue to eye fresh concerns from the credit sector, prompting metals price dips. LME 3-month copper last trade at $8,160/ton, up $10 vs PM kerb. (EFB) 

0841 [kennas] HLX looks set to run to about $26.00 on the back of the AQA JORC ann on the Yalleen JV. Better go out and sell a liver and put it on this baby. Those who have read to the end, I hope you've had a laugh. ;-) LOL.


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## nizar (16 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*



kennas said:


> 0841 [kennas] HLX looks set to run to about $26.00 on the back of the AQA JORC ann on the Yalleen JV. Better go out and sell a liver and put it on this baby. Those who have read to the end, I hope you've had a laugh. ;-) LOL.




Nice one


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## prawn_86 (16 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*

lol. so a gap up to $20 then up to 26 by the end of the day kennas? :


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## ta2693 (16 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*

Short sell one liver and buy back afterwards.


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## Sean K (17 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities (Pre Open) Roundup*

0620 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude hit intraday record of $88.20/bbl, higher for 6th straight session on Turkey-Iraq concerns, forecast 4Q supply deficit. November Nymex up $1.48 to $87.61, Brent on ICE up $1.41 to $84.49. "When we broke through the ($78-$84) trading range, we saw a lot of people covering shorts as well as new buying as we started another leg up," said Eric Wittenauer of A.G. Edwards. "The trend remains higher." Gold, silver futures pared overnight gains on profit-taking spurred by stronger USD; December gold down 20 cents to $762 on Comex, up 40 cents to $762.70 on CBOT; December silver off 19.7 cents to $13.658 on Comex, down 20.6 cents to $13.656 on CBOT. "Silver was under pressure a little more than gold," said Dave Meger at Alaron Trading. "Certainly, both had a bout of profit-taking on the slightly firmer dollar and weakness in the foreign currencies." January platinum down $1 to $1,422.40, December palladium off $1.85 to $375.30. LME base metals mostly lower on profit-taking sparked by weaker gold, lack of bullish news; "Weaker equity markets and a stronger U.S. dollar dealt metals a blow," said BNP Paribas analyst David Thurtell. "Comments by the U.S. Fed Chair (that slower U.S. housing growth likely to drag on economy next year) and rising copper and lead stocks did nothing to help." Copper down $100 to $8050, lead down $175 to $3640, zinc down $95 to $3040, aluminum up $6.50 to $2499, nickel down $155 to $31795, tin down $50 to $16500. (BRD) 

0637 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD hammered along with other high yielders as investors exit risky bets, with liquidation of yen-funded carry trades gaining momentum; Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton says comments from Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Shinohara, who reportedly said "Europeans have expressed concern about the EUR" appear to have triggered the carry trade liquidation. Weaker U.S. stocks, more bad news on U.S. housing, record high oil prices also heighten risk-aversion. AUD/USD trading at 0.8860 early in NZ vs 0.9004 late in Sydney yesterday after sliding to near 2-week low of 0.8824 offshore; AUD/JPY also down sharply, now 103.38 vs 105.76 yesterday. (SHN) 

0655 [Dow Jones] Asian stock markets likely to weaken today as Asian ADRs fell 2.3% during North American trading on renewed rise in risk aversion, says Brown Brothers Harriman in report; thinks U.S. stocks will remain volatile after falling overnight on ongoing concerns about weak earnings, while Fed Chairman Bernanke's warning of risks ahead also negative. Adds Indian ADRs hammered by news Indian regulators considering restricting offshore derivative-based participatory notes. (SHN) 

0734 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks closed lower for 2nd straight session as more bad news on housing front, renewed credit worries and high oil prices spooked market. Investors were rattled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson "saying housing is starting to impact everything else, because you usually don't get administration officials taking a more negative view," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald. "And every day oil hits a new record, which has become alarming." Most banking companies struggled with Wells Fargo off 3.9% as a 4.1% rise in 3Q profit was accompanied by mortgage-related write-downs, big reduction in value of mortgage-servicing rights. KeyCorp fell 5.9% after 3Q net income plunged 33%; Merrill Lynch lost 2.5% and Lehman Brothers dropped 2.7%. L.M. Ericsson Telephone's American depositary shares slumped 24% after saying fewer than expected capacity upgrades, lower software sales would hit profits; news hurt rivals including Nokia, down 3.1%. In late trading, shares of Intel rose 5% after posting 43% rise in 3Q earnings as strong demand for notebook computers drove sales of the company's microprocessors. Yahoo rose 8.8% as company's 3Q profit topped expectations, IBM fell 1.4% on news its 3Q gross profit margin fell to 41.3% vs 42% year-ago. Dow finished down 0.5%, Nasdaq off 0.6%, Philly semicons down 0.1%. (SHN) 

0806 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD expected to find base of about 0.8850 as risk aversion increases on more worries following U.S. bank results, says Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts; adds "credit crunch is going to be slow to go away". Wall Street slide prompts investors to pull out of high-risk currencies, weak Australian equities lead will add to sell tone. Pair pulls back from above 0.9000, plumbs to 0.8826. "Carry trades are on the nose for the time being." Roberts expects "very, very choppy" AUD/USD trend on more short cycles of risk aversion in near-term but for broad direction to be up. Pair last at 0.8887.(SRH) 

0817 [Dow Jones] Asia stock markets have negative cue from Wall Street fall overnight, but this may be offset to some extent by after-hours rise in U.S. stock futures; Nasdaq futures now +0.7% in screen trade. This due to after-hours gains in big techs including Seagate, Yahoo, Intel, on earnings reports; Intel shares gained 5% in late trade as 3Q net income jumped 43% amid strong worldwide demand for its chips and record microprocessor shipments, while it boosted full-year margin expectation. World's largest chipmaker is barometer for sector and results may thus support Asian names on expectation for solid seasonal demand in 4Q. For 4Q, Intel expects margins of 57% on revenue of $10.5-11.1 billion, vs Wall Street's revenue expectation of $10.42 billion.(RXM) 

0821 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) rating to Underperform from Neutral on back of recent share price strength. Keeps target at A$55.00 on 12-month view; CBA shares latest A$58.90. (LMF) 

0822 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD could make run for 0.8500 if it falls below 0.8820, says Suncorp treasury analyst Peter Pontikis; adds current risk aversion trends "should help the bears" this week. Bearish drivers include further oil price surge, comments from ECB's Trichet, weak U.S. data. Pontikis says "salient risk" exists that more bad news in equity markets could push AUD/USD below 0.8820. Expect wider range of 0.8845-0.8900 in Asian trade. (SRH) 

0827 [Dow Jones] Australian Finance Minister Nick Minchin attempts to discredit main opposition Labor Party's election pledge to improve housing affordability by releasing surplus government land; says A$6 billion figure quoted by Labor leader Rudd yesterday includes all land owned by government, not just surplus land; "Rudd has not grasped the detail and clearly has not grasped the difference between land owned by the Commonwealth and surplus land which might be available for housing." Adds housing policy appears to have been quickly put together to counter ruling Liberal-National coalition's A$34 billion tax cut plan announced Monday. Although voter polls show Labor will win landslide victory if election was held now, pressure is mounting for center-left party to match or better coalition's tax plan to cement its lead. (RAP) 

0827 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts Coates Hire (COA.AU) to Neutral from Outperform on back of recent share price strength; analyst says stock has gained 20.7% since Aug. 30, vs 9.1% rise for benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. Targets COA at A$6.60; last at A$6.46. (LMF) 

0902 [kennas] Had a tough day today. Did some Spanish study this am and some stock research before going out for a long lunch with Rach, and 2 friends. Watched Lost in Translation this arvo for the 100th time and now have Wall Street on in the background. LOL. Having a wine and cheese night tonight.....yum yum.


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## ToddPowers (17 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

Thank you for posting this information Kennas, it is much appreciated.
I also enjoy the personal touch at the end. 
Have a good trading day everybody.


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## Sean K (18 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0614 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude slightly lower after hitting new record intraday high of $89/bbl, as larger-than-expected increases in U.S. petroleum inventories outweighed worries about Iraq-Turkey tensions. November Nymex down 21 cents to $87.40, Brent on ICE down 68 cents to $82.91. "Finally we hit a price level that people decided all the worries were priced in, and decided to book some profits," said Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading Corp. Gold futures gave up early gains on long liquidation after initial support from softer USD, higher crude; December gold up 30 cents to $762.30 on Comex, up 80 cents to $763.20 on CBOT; December silver up 9.2 cents to $13.75 on Comex, up 9.5 cents to $13.749 on CBOT. "You saw the metals stall a little," said Charles Nedoss of Peak Trading Group. "They've had a very good run... The trend is still very strong (because of) tensions between Turkey and Iraq." January platinum up $15.80 to $1,438.20, underpinned by South Africa safety issues after accidental death of Northam mine worker; December palladium range-bound, up 10 cents to $375.35. LME inventory build pushed base metals prices down; lower-than-expected U.S. housing data added to bearish sentiment; copper down $90 to $7960, lead down $90 to $3550, zinc off $70 to $2970, aluminum up $11 to $2510, nickel unchanged at $31795, tin down $125 to $16375. LME copper still seeking direction as nearby support has eroded by rapidly increasing inventory stocks, end of strike action in Peru, said Walter de Wet at Standard Bank; added longer-term outlook bullish, with tight concentrates market underpinning prices. (BRD) 

0746 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD trades higher in Wellington early after another rocky ride offshore, recovering along with euro as USD struggled to make headway after weak U.S. housing market report; AUD likely to remain whippy today, investors probably eye Asian market for cues. Pair now 0.8901 vs 0.8824 late Sydney yesterday, but off overnight peak of 0.8970 as markets still nervous about credit conditions, while trepidation ahead of Friday's G7 meeting continues to pace trading. Another uninspiring Wall Street performance also keeps carry-trade demand at bay though these trades made partial comeback overnight. AUD/JPY now 103.92 vs 102.67 yesterday. (SHN) 

0731 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks end mixed after a volatile session as investors navigated through a confluence of positive and negative news; "we're in a very reactive market," said Bill Sutherland, director of equity research at Boenning & Scattergood. "So on a day like today with a lot going on, you're going to see a lot of bouncing around." Market was buffeted by some solid earnings, poor housing data plus prospect of military action by Turkey in Iraq that pushed oil briefly to the $89 a barrel mark. Mortgage insurer MGIC Investment plunged 15% after 3Q swung to a loss from profit year-ago, expects market conditions to affect results through 2008; diversified manufacturer United Technologies fell 3.6% on bearish outlook comments after posting 3Q profit rise of 20%. While Dow fell, tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied on back of strong 4.9% gain by chip maker Intel, 8.9% jump by Internet giant Yahoo; Intel posted solid 43% rise in 3Q earnings, with positive news pushing rival Advanced Micro Devices up by 1.1% Yahoo's earnings, which down on-year, exceeded Wall Street's forecast and CEO Jerry Yang remained upbeat on company's broad reorganization efforts. J.P. Morgan Chase gained 2.8% on 2.3% rise in 3Q profit as it managed to weather a turbulent market environment better than peers like Citigroup. In late trade, eBay advanced 3.2% after 3Q sales rose 30%. Dow closed down 0.2%, Nasdaq +1%, Philly semicons +0.1%. (SHN) 

0811 [Dow Jones] Weak U.S. data overnight "likely to equal a weak USD", says BNP Paribas. EUR/USD to re-test 1.4240/80 peaks, with break above that level creating potential for rise to 1.4545 in medium term; last quoted at 1.4212. GBP/USD also likely to benefit from USD weakness, given its high-yield status, solid U.K. labor market data, BNP says. Expects GBP/USD to target 2.0435/95. Global risk appetite on rise, implying bounce for high yielders. If AUD/USD breaks above 0.8965, would confirm corrective bottom has been established, with focus on recent high of 0.9080. Last quoted at 0.8917. In medium term, potential for rise toward 0.92/0.94. (ILM) 

0821 [Dow Jones] Resignation of Michael Kay, CEO of Suncorp Metway's (SUN.AU) AAMI business, is a negative for Suncorp and could drain morale at group at a critical time in merger of Suncorp and Promina businesses, Merrill Lynch says. Also says while not unexpected, there is anecdotal evidence of potential integration concerns at Suncorp. Keeps Neutral rating on SUN, says group's AGM is the next possible catalyst for stock. Shares yesterday down 1.6% at A$20.18. (LMF) 

0823 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Transfield Services (TSE.AU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS, noting purchases of Horizon and Whelan's, 2 U.S. east coast facilities management businesses, "seem to us to be excellent fits, both with each other and with U.S. Maintenance." Lifts earnings forecasts by up to 8% in first year of ownership, raising target price to A$15.25 from A$14.00, and says in "highly fragmented and immature" U.S. market, "TSE looks well placed to win large, relatively high-margin contracts." Shares yesterday up 3.0% at A$13.76. (WEL) 

0825 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD likely to get a boost once risk appetite returns via AUD/USD 2-year swap yield spread widening out to fresh 3-year highs above 240 bps, says NAB currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos. Stronger Asian stocks today could see test of 0.8950; now 0.8916. Investors will no doubt remain jittery about equity markets and any further sharp declines will weigh on AUD. Notes IMF World Economic Outlook overnight showed China and India making largest contributions to global growth, which supports bullish AUD view. AUD/USD latest 0.8915. (JEG) 

0827 [Dow Jones] If Australia's ruling Liberal-National coalition wins Nov. 24 federal election, delivers A$34 billion in tax cuts pledged earlier this week, there's a "very good chance" RBA will need to hike rates to at least 7.0%, says TD Securities global strategist Stephen Koukoulas. Notes Labor Party still to unveil its tax policy, though it's "indicated a more conservative approach to fiscal policy." Adds pre-election rate hike to 6.75% Nov. 7 "near certain" as a result of tax cuts announced in May budget, along with "other well-documented issues" adding to inflation pressures at present. (RAP) 

0833 [Dow Jones] Former RBA board member Bob Gregory has warned further RBA rate hike could be overzealous, undermining a historic chance to create full employment in Australia. Labor market academic Gregory argues that inflation remains meek. "Nobody is seeing big inflation rates, it's hard to see any evidence in the labor market, so we're only talking about small uplifts, if at all," Gregory told ABC radio. Comments come as markets price in 50/50 chance RBA will hike rates in November from current 10-year high of 6.50%. (JEG) 

0842 [Dow Jones]UBS says confirmation the ASX (ASX.AU) will offer trading in a range of CFDs from early November is positive for volumes. "When CFDs were introduced into Australia in mid-2002, ASX option volumes were impacted by some investors substituting towards the newer product. Moreover, OTC issuers typically only hedged their unwanted net exposure back to the options market," analyst says. "A successful exchange traded CFD offering should attract back some of this volume, and assist overall market growth, in our view." Maintains Neutral. "However, we recognise the valuation optimality of this initiative, which leverages ASX's regulatory and operational strengths." (SVM) 

0909 [kennas] Is watching Golden Eye at the moment. Brosnan was a good Bond. Today booked in to do a paragliding pilot course starting next week. Should be fun!


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## ta2693 (18 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

It would be better there are someone guru here help us how to understand the news above. I find we can not read the news by its word. e.g. gold price hit new high, does not necessarily mean gold share is going to have a good day.
I find the roundup is helpful but I still do not know how to use it.


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## Sean K (18 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



ta2693 said:


> It would be better there are someone guru here help us how to understand the news above. I find we can not read the news by its word. e.g. gold price hit new high, does not necessarily mean gold share is going to have a good day.
> I find the roundup is helpful but I still do not know how to use it.



For a start, Golden Eye is a good movie. 

The rest is just a news heads up. Orientation for the day...

For detail go to the threads... :dunno:


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## Sean K (19 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

Sorry, was out having drinks during pre-open. 


0941 [Dow Jones] Australian Treasurer Costello says the Coalition's proposed tax cuts are not inflationary. "I wouldn't have done it if it wasn't consistent with our other economic goals which are low inflation and continuing growth," he tells ABC radio in Melbourne. Costello says the drought will see food prices rise and that the proposed tax cuts will help people deal with the impact. "The best thing to do is to put the money back in people's pockets so they have the capacity to adjust," Costello says. Some economists disagree with Costello and have said the Coalition's tax policy could help tip the balance at the RBA toward further interest rate hikes. The RBA next meets Nov. 6 with markets pricing in a 40% probability that it will hike. (APW) 

0946 [Dow Jones] CSL (CSLDA.AU) may outperform Friday after strong 3Q results and improved FY earnings guidance from U.S. peer Baxter. Baxter shares rose 7.8% after company lifted FY guidance to US$2.75-US$2.77/share from US$2.65-US$2.70 previously. CSL retreated slightly yesterday after rising 8.5% from Tuesday's low of A$32.00 (deferred settlement basis). Expect test of next resistance at A$35.30 on break of A$34.74 today. Support now A$34.30. Analyst consensus price target A$35.84, based on Thomson ONE data. (DWR) 

0947 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citi downgrades Iluka (ILU.AU) to Hold, cuts target price to A$5.30 due to higher AUD. "Earnings could evaporate entirely on any further AUD appreciation," Citi says. Says upgrades to currency forecasts since its last note have driven a 50% earnings downgrade for 2007. Says 3Q production was steady but meeting shipping schedule may be a challenge in 4Q given tight ship availability and soaring freight costs. Iluka last traded flat at A$5.13. (APW) 

1000 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 should see early weakness in line with 21-point fall in overnight futures. Sale of A$590 million stake in Goodman Fielder will need to be soaked up. But traders are expecting good support on dips. Chart support 6725.0, resistance 6800.0. Surging oil prices may trigger short-term correction on Wall Street, but shouldn't derail global stock markets as Fed remains in easing mode. Local currency strength should help insulate Australian market. Strong results from Google - up 3.0% after hours - might help Wall Street tonight. And major drivers of yesterday's strength in S&P/ASX 200 - resources, banks, Woolworths - should be well supported. BHP Billiton comments on tight demand/supply conditions should underpin BHP , Rio Tinto and surging oil price should support Woodside. Woolworths strong before expected jump in sales data next week. Index last 6767.7. (DWR) 

1003 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan keeps Overweight rating on Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) with A$60.23 target, notwithstanding stock's strong performance so far this year. "CBA have potential sources of excess EPS growth from improving distribution performance, lifting operating cost efficiency, further leveraging retail deposits and longer term capital management," analyst says. CBA last at A$60.09. (LMF) 

1008 [Dow Jones] AWB (AWB.AU) clears up some uncertainty about fiscal performance, firming up guidance for underlying profit to a range A$80 million to A$90 million from February guidance at lower end of analyst's consensus of A$67 million to A$116 million. MD Gordon Davis attributes upgraded guidance to favorable international commodity trading operations, particularly towards end of fiscal year on Sep. 30. Investors, who drove AWB to an all-time low of A$2.23 early October, halving price in 3 months, on relentless spate of drought-related news, react positively, drive AWB 9.1% higher to A$2.51. (RCB) 

1014 [Dow Jones] New Zealand billionaire Graeme Hart has begun a selldown of his 20% stake in Goodman Fielder (GFF.AU), GFF spokesman confirms. Valued at A$591.0 million based on last market trading price of A$2.23, stake was released from escrow following Goodman FY result in August, so market was waiting to see what Hart would do with his holding. Stake is being sold in an institutional bookbuild from A$2.12 a share upward and is expected to be completed today, people familiar with situation say. GFF shares last traded on market at A$2.23. GFF requested a trading halt late yesterday, saying planned announcement about shares in company. Hart not immediately available for comment; has been buying up assets in packaging sector, is expected to continue to build on his portfolio. (RBT, SVM) 

1025 [Dow Jones] Iluka (ILU.AU) downgrades earnings guidance as profits come under pressure from strong Australian dollar and soaring shipping costs. Full year net profit guidance cut to between A$45 million and A$50 million, down from A$55 million to A$60 million. Shares down 4.3%. MD David Robb says the "challenging" conditions will not affect its commitment to growth projects. Some analysts tipping there may be further downgrades to come with Citi Friday warning that further appreciation of the Australian dollar could wipe out earnings altogether. (APW) 

1039 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citi cuts Cochlear (COH.AU) to Hold from Buy to reflect share price appreciation since initiating coverage in July. "The company's leading position as the world's top implant company, its accelerating growth profile, leading edge technology and strong management are key reasons we retain a positive outlook on COH," Citi says. "The primary risk for a device company is that a better device will replace the existing one. Future optically based cochlear implants (OCI) may stimulate nerve fibers more accurately because optical pulses in different places on the nerve wouldn't interfere with each other, allowing listening to more subtle tones and nuances. Because OCI can complement residual hearing a larger target population could be helped." Last trade down 1.0% to A$73.43. (ABH) 

1041 [Dow Jones]Citi notes the High Court appeals against the NZ regulator's decision to reject clearance to bid for the Warehouse (WHS.NZ) are due to start next week. Woolworths (WOW.AU) and Foodstuffs are both appealing the decision. "We believe the market is underestimating the potential for the appeals to succeed," analyst says. "We believe the Commerce Commission's findings are highly subjective and will be heavily contested in the High Court." Notes recent news including WHS decision to put on hold the roll out of further Extra format stores supports the appeals. "Moreover, the potential for international players to enter the NZ grocery market was highlighted last week when Costco announced its impending Australian entrance." Estimates WOW is best placed to acquire WHS, should the appeals succeed, for up to N$7.10 per share, (SVM)


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## Sean K (22 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0713 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks marked 20th anniversary of Black Monday by going into tailspin on Friday after Caterpillar warned of a recession and Wachovia said it sees more credit troubles ahead; DJIA ended off 2.6%, biggest decline since Aug. 9 as all 30 members fell (down 4.1% for week), Nasdaq off 2.6%, largest drop since Feb. 27 and down 2.9% for week, Philly semicons off 4.3%. "The comments out of Caterpillar put a spotlight on weakening domestic growth in the industrial sector, catching investors by surprise," says analyst; "it shows the tendrils of credit problems are becoming more invasive." Caterpillar lost 5.3% after saying U.S. economy has weakened in 2H07 and may be "near to, or even in, recession" next year. Vulnerability to a weak economy and competitive pressures in turn pushed 3M down 8.6%; it posted 7.4% rise in 3Q net income but said it'll cut prices on optical films for some customers. Wachovia off 3.6% as 3Q net income fell 10%; loan-loss provisions quadrupled and it recorded $1.3 billion in losses and write-downs, plus it signaled increasing credit troubles ahead. Majors mostly quiet in after-hours trade.(RXM) 

0715 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES SUMMARY: Crude took breather Friday after breaching $90 early in day, moving lower as traders took profits after week of stunning gains; November Nymex crude off 87 cents or 1% at $88.60/bbl, before expiry Monday, with Brent crude on ICE futures exchange off 81 cents at $83.79. Futures climbed to intraday record of $90.07 early Friday, briefly holding the level as USD hit all-time low vs EUR, but then oil pulled back; dollar is "the horse that's pulling the cart of crude oil," says analyst. Futures have been on upswing since cracking record $78.40 that had held for a year and piercing $80 in mid-September; perceptions of supply tightness, along with rising oil demand globally, have underscored higher prices. NY gold prices oscillated on both sides of unchanged before finishing near steady; December Comex gold off 30 cents at $768.40/oz, silver off 16.8 cents at $13.635. Metals prices higher early on weakness in USD but crude pullback dented sentiment and USD came off lows; "the market was very volatile. It's caught between a tendency for longs to take profits, as we've been up sharply in the last two weeks. But on the other hand, there are still compelling reasons to buy gold as a safe haven," says analyst. January platinum +$1 at $1,448.60; December palladium off $1.45 at $372.50. LME metals mostly higher though some warned recent inventory rises may weigh on some of complex in coming week; copper closed kerb +$9 at $7,869/ton with lead +$40 at $3,700, aluminum +$6 at $2,557, nickel off $300 at $32,200, zinc off $16 at $2,954. "We mainly attribute the strength of industrial metals to the rising oil price, the weak U.S. dollar and overall brisk demand for commodity derivatives," says Commerzbank.(RXM) 

0813 [Dow Jones] AGL Energy (AGK.AU) reportedly set to announce departure of Managing Director Paul Anthony in wake of last week's profit downgrade. Australian Financial Review says Anthony has lost support of board and senior management and departure will be announced today. AGL not immediately available for comment. Some analysts have been predicting Anthony's departure after embarrassing downgrade to earnings guidance last week. Sudden departure of its MD may further weigh on a stock that has been punished since the downgrade. (APW) 

0813 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD not expected to gain much ground in coming week as risk aversion, prompted by uncertain U.S. economic outlook, will temper any bid tone, says ANZ strategist Tony Morriss. Notes weak USD will lead to better JPY buying, unwinding of carry trades; countering any rush for AUD/USD. But expects firm bid support for AUD/USD on the dips. AUD/USD now 0.8888 from a high of 0.8920 overnight. (EGC) 

0848 [Dow Jones] Kevin Rudd, leader of Australia's main opposition Labor party attempts to boost his economic management credentials in 90 minute televised debate Sunday against PM John Howard; says Labor's election pledges more fiscally conservative than those of ruling Liberal-National coalition; adds if elected Nov. 24 Labor will aim to ease skills shortages, boost spending on infrastructure in effort to ease capacity constraints, inflation pressures. Howard struck back saying Rudd an "election eve convert to economic conservatism," but PM forced to defend the way coalition policy, particularly tax cuts, have contributed to domestic demand pressures, RBA's tightening bias. Some economists say spending promises from both side of politics may push RBA over line toward rate hike when it next meets Nov. 6. (RAP) 

0856 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD opens lower as traders take advantage of thin trading conditions ahead of Australian 3Q PPI data due 0130 GMT, say strategists at OzForex. Expects PPI to indicate any supply side inflationary pressures ahead of headline CPI data due Wednesday; CPI seen as make or break for RBA rate hike call. AUD/USD now 0.8877 from 0.8868. (EGC) 

0857 [Dow Jones] Departure of AGL Energy (AGK.AU) MD Paul Anthony may not quell investor fears in wake of last week's downgrade, one analyst says. Embarrassing downgrade followed quickly on from recent bullish comments, and has led to Anthony's replacement, effective immediately, with senior AGL executive Michael Fraser replacing. AGL is carrying out a review in wake of downgrade and one analyst says departure of Anthony of its own won't deal with concerns about impact of retail margin squeeze on future earnings. "I think that is going to weigh on a lot of people's minds - that there is still something worse out there," analyst says. AGL last traded at A$13.05. (APW) 

0902 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades Computershare (CPU.AU) to Buy. Analyst says CPU has significantly underperformed recently despite reporting a strong FY07 result. "A scale presence in the U.S., more diversified income streams, some countercyclical opportunities and more disciplined and rigorous management are some of the reasons for our improving comfort levels," analyst says. "Cyclicality remains a risk, however (for example) a 3% price rise across its registry services book would more than offset a 20% fall in corporate activity revenues." Price target A$11.25 vs last trade A$8.95. (SVM) 

0906 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse starts Australian Agricultural Company (AAC.AU) with an Outperform rating and A$2.85 12-month target price. "The key driver of future value increases is that we expect global consumption of meat will continue to increase at 3% per annum as it has for the past three decades, while available grazing land remains static or falls," analyst says. AAC last at A$2.54. (LMF) 

0907 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 set to suffer from Wall Street's plunge on weak earnings and high oil prices, with overnight SPI futures down 155 points or 2.3% at 6591.0. DJIA down 2.6% at 13522.02, Nasdaq down 2.7% at 2725.16, S&P 500 down 2.6% at 1500.63 on broad losses, with disappointing earnings and outlook statements from Catapiller, 3M, Honeywell and Wachovia. Catapiller predicted U.S. recession. Energy fell 4.3% while financials and industrials fell 2.9%. Base metals mostly up slightly. U.S. 10 year bond yield down 10 bps at 4.39% on safe haven buying/recession fears. AUD/USD down at 0.8876 vs 0.8968. Nymex crude down 87 cents at US$88.60 after hitting US$90.07 early Friday. Comex gold down 30 cents at US$768.4. BHP (BHP.AU) ADRs at A$46.55 vs A$47.10. Index last 6706.3. (DWR)


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## ta2693 (22 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

Can anyone here give me an answer on the following two question?
what makes investo give upgrade or downgrade advice without any charge?
When does this upgrade and downgrade advice from investos start?


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## Sean K (23 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0905 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL:Goldman Sachs JBWere downgrades Foster's (FGL.AU) to Hold from Buy. "Shift in Australian supply-demand cycle is positive for domestic pricing power but sharp currency appreciation cruels underlying double-digit earnings momentum," analyst says. Downgrades earnings forecasts, with broker now 3-6% below consensus for FY08-09. (SVM) 

0907 [Dow Jones]Goldman Sachs JBWere says Lion Nathan's (LNN.AU) revenue growth is likely to slow due to impact of smoking bans/equine flu impact on NSW/QLD pub market. "Drought impact on barley means worst-case FY08 COGS inflation outlook to become reality; with modest upside risk to NZ beer (July's 3.3% price increase appears to have stuck) not enough to offset," analyst says. Notes LNN to clarify position on M&A vs capital management by FY07 result on Nov. 21. Maintains Hold.(SVM) 

0908 [Dow Jones] Primary's (PRY.AU) intention to vote against Symbion's (SYB.AU) revised plan to sell its diagnostic assets to Healthscope (HSP.AU) is unlikely to derail the sale, says Merrill Lynch. However, value of Symbion's remaining vitamin-making and drugstore distribution assets may not be realized, given Primary's stated intention to also vote against this motion, ML says. "As the consumer and pharmacy portion of the offer represents less than half (about 41%) of the transaction, we expect that the emphasis of decision will reside with the diagnostics assets, and in the absence of a superior offer at the time of the shareholder vote expect greater than 50% approval," ML says. Keeps Neutral recommendation on SYB and HSP, Buy on PRY. SYB last trade A$4.05, HSP A$5.34, PRY A$11.77. (ABH) 

0909 [Dow Jones]Goldman Sachs JBWere says upgrades to broker's currency assumptions is a clear structural negative for McGuigan Simeon (MGW.AU) given around 60% of revenue is generated from exports & little (if any) pricing power in key export markets. "Profit outlook is out of MGW's hands as higher bulk wine prices not sufficient to overcome double whammy of lower volumes & stronger AUD," analyst says. "Key downside risk is failure of volumes to rebound if drought impacts 2009 vintage." Maintains Hold. (SVM) 

0912 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) says gold-copper output at Sepon steady during 3Q, to meet annual forecast on output and costs. Same for Gold Grove polymetallic mine; higher average gold, silver, copper prices during quarter offset lower average zinc prices. Unit costs at Sepon copper steady, direct cash costs forecast to remain within forecast 65-70 cents/lb range but costs for remainder of year to be slightly higher due to planned five-day maintenance shutdown. (EFB) 

0917 [Dow Jones] BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) posts record quarterly iron ore output, no nasty surprises on costs or timing of projects. Copper output 10% down on previous quarter, coking coal down 14%, thermal coal slips 8% and BHP says infrastructure constraints will continue to impact Australian coal sales. Petroleum production in line with previous quarter at 30.34 million barrels. No cost blowouts in development project pipeline; BHP says Neptune to be a little late and Stybarrow a little early. Market may be disappointed with copper and coal but maintenance of iron ore and petroleum output at times of high prices should be a positive. (APW) 

0921 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO downgrades Aristocrat (ALL.AU) to Hold from Buy. "Aristocrat's latest profit warning is disappointing but what is more problematic is predicting the next upturn in its operating cycle," analyst says. Notes Aristocrat's guidance that North American unit sales are likely to be 15-20% lower than in FY06 is a major concern. "We know the North American replacement cycle is weak and Aristocrat has cited a shift from video back to traditional stepper but the question is whether Aristocrat is now losing market share." Price target cut to A$13.35 from A$16.55 vs last trade A$11.55. (SVM) 

0926 [Dow Jones] BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) posts 1Q production lower than JPMorgan forecasts for many commodities. JPMorgan analysts David George says exceptions were petroleum, slightly above, and iron ore, in line. "Pretty much everything else was lightly softer than our forecast or a lot softer," he said. Says nickel, copper, coking coal and thermal coal production all below JPMorgan forecasts. "That is quote a chunk of their earnings." (APW) 

0930 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mostly bullish, with overnight futures up 47 points at 6660.0. DJIA up 0.3% at 13566.97, Nasdaq up 1.1%, S&P 500 up 0.4%. All major indexes closed near their highs amid mixed corporate results, albeit with optimism about Apple's results, which beat expectations after closing bell. Apple was up 6.0% after hours. LME copper down 1.4%, zinc down 2.5%, aluminum down 1.1%, nickel down 1.6%. U.S. 10-year bond yield down 0.8 point at 4.39%. AUD/USD near flat at 0.8886. Nymex crude down US$1.04 at US$87.56. Comex gold down A$8.40 at US$760.00. Index last 6577.3. (DWR) 

0932 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD losing ground early on, driven by selling from Tokyo as markets remain nervous, Macquarie Bank strategist Jo Masters says. Notes whilst all attention on 3Q CPI data due Wednesday, "bar is very high" for RBA to hike rates as prospects for Fed rate cut next week quicken, combined with Australian election mean no certainty that hike on cards. Says dip in AUD/USD no surprise as markets remain "fickle". Pair now 0.8877, below high of 0.8891. (EGC)


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## Sean K (24 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0852 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere upgrades Telstra (TLS.AU) to Hold from Sell, ups 12-month target to A$4.78 from A$4.69 after raising earnings estimates. Raises FY08 EPS forecast by 0.6%, FY09 by 4.8%, FY10 by 6.9 and FY11 by 2.8%, points to a number of factors, including changes to industry forecasts and incorporation of distributions from Foxtel, partly offset by higher business transformation cost estimates. Still, says a number of issues need to be resolved before can move to a positive recommendation, including near-term success of IT transformation, upcoming federal issues and technical issues associated with installment receipts in coming months. TLS last at A$4.64. (LMF) 

0853 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says Newcrest (NCM.AU) 1Q production is solid and the performance of the Telfer mine is set to continue improving. Says drilling at Goswong prospect has returned "fantastic intercepts" and further drilling is underway. "With likely reserve increases (Kencana and Cadia East), planned production growth (15% on-year) and robust gold and copper prices, we see further upside over the coming 12 months," ML says. Price objective set at A$30. NCM last traded at A$28.94. (APW) 

0854 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere downgrades Woolworths (WOW.AU) to Hold from Buy. Analyst says momentum in key business remains extremely strong, but notes Woolworths will start cycling strong comparable store sales growth over FY08; relative p/e also now trading near record levels at over a 30% premium to the Large Industrials ex-banks FY08 p/e. "The expected deceleration of a key retail metric like comparable store sales growth combined with high p/e rating is likely to be a negative catalyst over the coming six months." Price target A$32.55 vs last trade A$32.74. (SVM) 

0859 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO says acquisition of Rubicon by Allco Finance (AFG.AU) looks likely to benefit Rubicon's shareholders more than AFG's. AFG gains scale but Rubicon's trusts have underperformed substantially and deal is only anticipated by management to be EPS neutral for AFG. "With little chance of raising additional equity capital in the near term and debt financing almost exhausted, we believe that Rubicon's assets under management growth would likely have stalled in FY08." Keeps Hold rating on stock, lifts target price slightly to A$8.98 from A$8.82. AFG last at A$8.62. (RBT) 

0859 [Dow Jones]Credit Suisse upgrades Woolworths (WOW.AU) to Neutral from Underperform; price target raised to A$35.00 from A$30.30. "This rating reflects the offsetting nature of the company's high pricing multiple of 24x FY08 EPS against its strong strategic position in the Australian Food & Liquor market, potential for further upside from strategic acquisitions and the long-term potential for the group's financial services and international growth avenues," analyst says. Last trade A$32.74. (SVM) 

0900 [Dow Jones] Boral (BLD.AU) declines comment on a New Zealand newspaper report BLD will join with Fletcher Building (FBU.NZ) to bid for assets of Carter Holt Harvey being sold by NZ billionaire Graeme Hart. The Dominion Post reports, without citing sources, FBU plans to acquire the bulk of the NZ assets and BLD will pick up the Australian unit in a deal expected to top NZ$2 billion (A$1.69 billion). FBU and BLD's main competition comes from international buyout firm CVC Capital Partners, the newspaper says. BLD last trade A$7.11. (ABH) 

0900 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan reckons Ten (TEN.AU) has the capacity to undertake a capital return of A$700 million-A$975 million, expects company to announce capital management initiatives at tomorrow's annual result. Will also be watching for any commentary on major shareholder CanWest's intentions and strategy for group. Expects group to book FY television revenue growth of 4.8% on year to A$801.5 million, with television EBITDA seen up 1.3% on year to A$232.1 million. "We expect ongoing cost pressures to continue to impact EBITDA growth in the television segment," analyst says. Tips group EBIT at A$230.9 million, flat on year. Keeps Neutral rating on stock. TEN last at A$2.85. (LMF) 

0905 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere has cut its earnings forecast for BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) in the wake of weak 1Q production figures. "This was a weak quarter compared to our estimates, with copper and nickel particularly disappointing," GSJBW says. Cuts FY08 earnings by 3.8%. Says there is nothing structurally wrong at BHP and that tie-ins of new expansions and maintenance shutdowns are having an impact. Price target set at A$47.65. BHP last traded at A$46. (APW) 

0909 [Dow Jones] Australian core 3Q CPI expected +0.8% on quarter, +2.8% on year, making November rate hike line-ball call; most economists expect 0.9% rise to trigger hike but bar could be higher as RBA policy meeting is just 3 weeks before Nov. 24 election with credit concerns lingering. RBA clearly retains tightening bias, backed by domestic data; has warned election campaign no barrier to rate changes. Markets have priced in just over 50% probability of hike. Headline CPI expected to be +0.9% on quarter, +2.1% on year; data due 0130 GMT. (JEG) 

0909 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere says Newcrest (NCM.AU) 1Q output broadly in line with its expectations. "The absence of any negative operational news flow highlights that operationally things are improving," GSJBW says. Maintains Buy rating with A$35.00 target price. Newcrest last traded at A$28.94. (APW)

0940 [kennas] Great day in Lima today. Summer is on its way!!


----------



## Whiskers (24 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



kennas said:


> 0940 [kennas] Great day in Lima today. Summer is on its way!!




Same here near Bundaberg Queensland. Very comfortable now, not too hot.

Shaping up to be a good day in the market too. Should get a chance to take a bit of profit again in the next few days before things turn sour again.


----------



## Sean K (25 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0550 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude shot higher on unexpected falls in U.S. crude, gasoline, distillate investories shown in DoE data; December Nymex up $1.83 to $87.10/bbl, Brent on ICE up $1.57 to $84.42. "I don't think anybody expected such a big draw in crude stocks - there's nothing bearish about this report," said Tony Rosado of IAG Energy Brokers. "Draws in all energy sectors caused a $2 push to the upside" from $85/bbl pre-data. Precious metals mixed as gold, silver recovered losses on rising crude price, but silver weighed by more industrial nature. December gold up $2.50 to $765.60 on Comex, up $2.60 to $765.60 on CBOT; December silver down 6 cents to $13.59 on Comex, off 4.5 cents to $13.591 on CBOT; Nymex January down $10 to $1,443, Nymex December palladium off $3.75 to $362.65. "Precious metals were mostly weaker today as the U.S. dollar firmed," BNP Paribas said in report. But "early losses were largely recovered, as a jump in oil prices encouraged those who like gold as an inflation hedge." LME base metals lower as credit crunch weighs on 3Q earnings, but losses likely limited; zinc followed LME copper to month lows; tin, aluminum dropped to 2-week lows. "There's still a lot a lot of uncertainty about the U.S. housing market and (September's 8% fall in house sales) doesn't ease concerns," related to demand for industrial metals, said analyst Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital. Copper down $104 to $7690, lead down $97 to $3493, zinc off $81 to $2830, aluminum down $25 to $2495, nickel down $950 to $30800, tin off $210 to $16090. (BRD) 

0721 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD opens stronger after wild ride overnight, tracking gyrations on Wall St. ANZ strategist Tony Morriss says upward momentum developing; increased likeliood of Fed cut Nov. 1, RBA hike Nov. 7 offering support. Only thing that could short-circuit bullish scenario would be renewed sub-prime strains. Morriss says Australian 3Q CPI data Wednesday presented compelling case for rate hike but ongoing U.S. market jitters may limit market moves to price in multiple RBA hikes. AUD/USD now 0.9027, up from overnight low of 0.8937. (JEG) 

0754 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD poised to rally sharply in Asia if risk appetite revives on back of speculation of 50bps Fed rate cut next month, says John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank. If China 3Q GDP healthy, indicating demand for commodities likely to stay strong, then risks are to upside. AUD/USD now 0.9038, up from overnight low of 0.8937. No major domestic data due today. (JEG) 

0810 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: DJIA ended flat after early 200 point fall though Merrill, Amazon.com remained weak; index finished off just 0.98 point with Nasdaq off 0.9%, Philly semicons off 3.5%. No clear catalyst spurred afternoon recovery in Dow but market did begin turning as talk spread Fed could step in with emergency rate cut; this not given much credence by traders as Fed already meeting next week, anyway. "Action by the Fed would certainly help because it would help spur the economy along," says analyst; "there has been a lot of concern about the quality of earnings and ongoing credit problems. But I would be shocked if the Fed did act before its meeting." Merrill off 5.8% as took write-downs of $7.9 billion for CDOS, subprime mortgages, in deeper-than-forecast hit that exceeded its earnings for all of 2006. Amazon.com off 12%, its biggest percent fall since July 2006, amid concerns about margins. Tough day for chips with Broadcom off 17% as reported 75% fall in 3Q profit amid higher R&D costs; Altera off 16% with 3Q earnings falling. Countrywide Financial off 8.1% on WSJ report subprime mortgages aren't only challenge - some loans classified as prime when they were originated are now going bad. Eli Lilly down 4% after-hours with WSJ reporting it's suspending two studies of most promising drug in pipeline; Microsoft flat in late trade on reports it'll take minority stake in Facebook.(RXM) 

0814 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bearish. DJIA little changed at 13675.25. Nasdaq down 0.9%, S&P 500 down 0.2%. Nymex crude up US$1.83 at US$87.10. Comex gold up US$2.50 at US$765.60. U.S. 10-year bond yield down 5.7 points at 4.35%. AUD/USD 0.9037. LME copper down 1.4%, nickel down 3.0%. London-listed BHP up 3.4%, Rio up 1.9%. SPI futures up 6 points at 6673. S&P/ASX 200 last 6634.4. (ABH) 

0831 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch cuts its forecast for Alumina (AWC.AU) 2007 underlying earnings by 10% to A$441 million on impact of strong AUD. Maintains Buy rating on Alumina for its pure play on an emerging shortage of bauxite and alumina. Target price set at A$8.20 versus last trade of A$6.61. (APW) 

0837 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch cuts Amcor (AMC.AU) FY09 and FY10 earnings forecasts by 3.1% to A$469 million from A$484 million and by 4.4% to A$543 million from A$568 million to reflect new currency assumptions and lower operating margins for Amcor's Australasian and Sunclipse units. "All divisions appear to be tracking in line with the commentary given at the FY07 result briefing in August," ML says. "Despite rising input costs (Flexibles) and soft demand (Australian fiber), all businesses are expected to post earnings growth in FY08." Keeps at Neutral, A$7.31 valuation. Last trade A$7.18. (ABH) 

0903 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 may rise 10-15 points led by banking and industrial stocks, despite a bearish leads from commodity prices and Wall Street. Lower metal prices may lead to a selldown of resource stocks, such as Rio (RIO.AU), although energy stocks, like Woodside (WPL.AU), may benefit from crude's overnight gain, says Ben Clark, private client adviser at TMS Capital in Sydney. Retail banks, such as ANZ (ANZ.AU), which earlier posted a 13% rise in FY07 net profit, may gain as the banks head into their annual reporting season and insurance stocks, which have been oversold in recent days, may also rise, he says. Allco Finance's (AFG.AU) AGM today may also shine light on investment banks, which have been under pressure on the back of US credit crunch, and their growth outlook, and may lead to buying in Macquarie Bank (MBL.AU) and others, Clark says. Index last 6634.4. (ABH) 

0907 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse restarts Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL.AU) at Neutral; price target A$10.30 vs latest A$9.35. Notes latest CPI data showed a deceleration of soft drink price growth to 4% in the third quarter on year. "The CPI requires closer scrutiny," analyst says. "We have been aware that the two major supermarkets have become more aggressive in certain categories in order to defend market share and avoid criticism of fueling inflation." (SVM) 

0920 [Dow Jones] ANZ (ANZ.AU) FY result looks roughly in line with forecasts, net profit rises 13% to record A$4.18 billion, cash profit up 9.4% at A$3.926 billion, just below consensus forecast of A$3.926 billion. However, investors could be disappointed by lack of guidance, new CEO Mike Smith tells journalists he doesn't believe in giving forecasts. Final dividend of 74 cents a share also at bottom end of analysts forecasts, which could create further pressure. Company says to continue to focus on growth domestically and in Asia, investors likely to want more information on strategy in upcoming 10.30 am (0030 GMT) analysts briefing. (LMF)


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0650 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude higher in 4th straight record high on temporary closure of Mexican oil production, weaker USD; December Nymex up $1.67 at $93.53/bbl, Brent on ICE up $1.63 to $90.32. "The feeding frenzy is immense; any bearish news is being totally ignored, while bullish news is magnified 10-fold," said Nauman Barakat of Macquarie Futures USA. "This is probably going to continue until Wednesday," when U.S. Energy Department inventory statistics, Fed rate call due. Gold futures neared $800 on weaker USD, stronger crude but pared gains on profit-taking as dollar came off lows; December gold up $5.10 to $792.60/oz on Comex, up $4.60 to $792.30 on CBOT. "Just some people taking a little money off the table ahead of the Fed," said Frank Lesh of Future Path Trading. "You get up here in the stratosphere, you're not going to be able to make as big of gains as we have been." December silver up 15 cents to $14.43 on Comex, up 14.8 cents to $14.436 on CBOT; January platinum down $3.60 to $1,465.50, December palladium off 55 cents to $375.20. LME base metals mostly lower on inventory rises after significant rally on weaker USD; tin bucked trend on strong speculative interest. "Prices still could work lower from here given the steep slowdown seen in housing sales and the explosive growth in inventories," said MF Global analyst Edward Meir. Copper down $15 to $7845, lead down $7 to $3648, zinc up $9 to $2904, aluminum down $12 to $2525, nickel off $250 to $31550, tin up $350 to $16800. (BRD) 

0820 [Dow Jones] Australia's ruling Liberal-National coalition claws back some ground in latest Newspoll published in the Australian newspaper, though main opposition Labor Party would still win office if election held now; Labor's lead on 2-party preferred basis narrows from 16 bps in last week's survey to just 8 bps at 54% vs 46%. Coalition plays down significance of poll, with Finance Minister Minchin saying many voters don't make up mind until final week of campaign. Much could happen between now and election, due Nov. 24, including likely RBA rate hike next week, which, if it occurs, will damage coalition's economic management credentials. (RAP) 

0832 [Dow Jones] BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) unlikely to succeed this year in its push for iron ore freight equalization, says Merrill Lynch. Says miner's drive to win higher prices to recognize higher shipping cost of Brazilian iron ore may also be unlikely to occur in next 2-3 years. Says BHP to sell excess tons of production into spot market, where prices are substantially higher than benchmark. BHP tells analysts on a visit to its Pilbara operations that its Rapid Growth Five and Quantum 1 & 2 expansions, which aim to take capacity to 300 million tons a year, will cost more than US$15 billion. ML maintains Neutral rating on BHP, which last traded at A$47.30. (APW) 

0851 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO cuts Perserverance (PSV.AU) to Hold from Buy after Northgate Minerals bid, sees limited potential for another bidder to emerge given conditions attatched to the bid and the acceptance of the Perserverance board. Also sees limited potential for broad-based shareholder support for any capital raising required to refinance company at a price comparable to the current offer. Targets stock at 20 cents; PSV last at 19 cents. (LMF) 

0900 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS ups Woolworths (WOW.AU) to Buy from Neutral, raises target to A$37.50 from A$34.80 after tour of new store format, which is "potentially the biggest in-store change in the last decade and could widen the gap" to Coles (CGJ.AU). Key differences with new format include 50% space allocation to fresh, vs 30% previously, new store livery and increased retail space. "We believe the additional space allocation could lift fresh sales by 20% with no negative impact on packaged grocery. In our view this format could drive an 8 percentage point increase in the group's fresh market share," analyst says. WOW last at A$33.01. (LMF) 

0902 [Dow Jones] Lihir Gold (LGL.AU) downgrades FY production outlook to 750,000 oz in wake of recent strike. Lihir had previously given guidance for 800,000-830,000 oz for the year, and earlier this month CEO Arthur Hood said this would now be close to 800,000 oz. Downgrade to 750,000 oz will disappoint some in the market, but negative impact on stock at market open likely to be balanced by a gold price that continues to climb closer to US$800/oz. (APW) Damn it!!

0807 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO raises Boral (BLD.AU) to Hold from Sell, cuts target price to A$6.20 from A$6.45. BLD said at annual meeting it expects FY08 profit down 15% from FY07 on U.S. housing weakness, high AUD; cuts FY08, FY09, FY10 profit estimates by 12% to A$255.6 million, 14% to A$301.3 million, 7.4% to A$397.6 million. "In spite of the downgrade we now believe much of the downside risk we identified with BLD will be getting priced in around current share price levels," ABN says in note. Stock last A$6.77. (ABH) 

0908 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mostly bullish, with overnight SPI futures up 18 points at 6840.0 after further gains in Wall Street and commodity prices. DJIA up 0.5% at 13870.3, S&P 500 up 0.4%, Nasdaq up 0.5% before expected Fed easing Wednesday. CBOE VIX up 0.3 point at 19.87. U.S. 10-year bond yield down 1.4 bps at 4.38%. AUD/USD at 0.9230. Nymex crude up US$1.67 at US$93.53. Comex gold up $5.10 at US$792.60. LME copper down 0.3%, zinc up 0.2%, aluminum down 0.5%, nickel down 0.6%. BHP ADRs at A$47.30 vs A$47.30 locally. Index last 6792.1. (DWR) 

0908 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse expects St George Bank (SGB.AU) to book FY cash profit of A$1.163 billion, up from A$1.026 billion a year ago, in line with market forecasts. However, analyst notes forecast of 85 cent final dividend at low end of expectations. Says key issues to watch for include capital pressures, back office efficiency program and rate of growth. Keeps Neutral rating on stock ahead of result with A$37.00 target. SGB last at A$36.35. (LMF) 

0813 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Jubilee Mines (JBM.AU) to sell from buy in wake of the A$23-a-share Xstrata (XTA.LN) offer. Ups target price to A$24 from A$20 reflecting 20% probability of a higher offer emerging. UBS says a counter offer is not out of the question, but would have 50% acceptance condition given the sale of management's 17.5% stake to Xstrata. "We believe Jubilee concentrate is highly sought after and no doubt all the majors would be interested," UBS says. Jubilee last traded at A$23.82. (APW)


----------



## Sean K (31 October 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0710 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude slumped, breaking 4-session rally as traders locked in gains, positioned for key inventory data plus Fed rate decision. December Nymex down $3.15 at $90.38/bbl, Brent on ICE down $2.88 to $87.44. Analysts cited market feeling prices rose too high too fast to be sustained above $93; "The market was very rich at $93, and a break below $90 could lead us lower" as many big traders bet there are sell orders to stop losses set just below $90, said Tony Rosado of IAG Energy Brokers. Goldman Sachs advised investors in note to speculators to take profits. Gold futures lower on uncertainty ahead of Fed rate decision, crude falls, stronger USD, profit-taking; December gold down $4.80 to $787.80/oz on Comex, down $4.50 to $787.90 on CBOT; pared some losses later in session as supportive sentiment re-emerged from "generally bullish bias" that Fed will probably ease rates 25 bps, said Stephen Platt of Archer Financial Services. December silver down 10.2 cents to $14.328 on Comex, down 10.7 cents to $14.33 on CBOT, "a laggard in the whole metals complex", said John Person of NationalFutures.com. Nymex January platinum off $24.60 to $1,440.90, December palladium down $3.40 to $371.80. Inventory rises again weighed on LME base metals; tin remains strongest metal, hovering just below August's record high $17,050/ton on stronger-than-expected Chinese September imports data; provisional Indonesia October export figures due next week also expected lower, said Peter Kettle of ITRI. Copper down $85 to $7760, lead down $65 to $3583, zinc off $64 to $2840, aluminum down $4 to $2521, nickel down $50 to $31500, tin off $150 to $16650. (BRD) 

0804 [Dow Jones] EUR remains well-bid vs USD early in Wellington after tapping yet another all-time high of 1.4442 late in New York trade; pair likely to continue rising after tonight's FOMC meeting, says Meg Browne, FX strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York; "We've still got credit market problems. Athough things have improved from the last meeting, the Fed isn't likely to abandon its easing bias and the trend is still for a weaker dollar." Says housing market has deteriorated more than expected, while consumer, business confidence also worse than expected; Fed statement likely to emphasize these downside risks to economy, which will keep dollar on sellers' radar. While euro may sell off ahead of Fed rate decision, up-trend for single currency intact given markets looking for ECB to tighten while U.S. rates expected to go lower over short term. EUR/USD last 1.4436. (SHN) 

0805 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD holds around 0.9200 with Fed meeting outcome in focus. WSJ report in last 24 hours that Fed is no sure thing to cut has created uncertainty about result. No Fed cut would likely see a rebound in USD so some heightened downside risk for AUD/USD exists for remainder of week. John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at NAB, says support around 0.9150, while overnight high of 0.9220 is initial resistance. Local data ahead likely to affirm view RBA will hike rates in November with prospect for a second hike in December or 1Q. AUD/USD now 0.9198. (JEG) 

0830 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse upgrades Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AU) to Outperform from Neutral on back of recent share price underperformance. Keeps 12-month target at A$12.60; ALL last traded at A$10.32. (LMF) 

0837 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks closed lower as investors remained anxious ahead of the Fed meeting tonight; "everyone was on Fed watch today; there was some anxiousness," said Phil Marber, head of trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. "And when people are nervous they sell stocks; they don't buy them." Merrill Lynch lost 2.8% after the investment bank said Chairman and CEO Stan O'Neal was leaving, making him the highest-profile executive to fall in the wake of mortgage-related losses on Wall Street. Qwest Communications International lost 14% to hit lowest level in nearly 18 months on lack of clarity about outlook, shelving of a dividend plan. Procter & Gamble fell 4% despite 14% rise in 1Q profit as company's 2Q projections appeared to disappoint expectations. U.S. Steel fell 7% after posting a 36% drop in 3Q profit as costs associated with an acquisition hurt results; among gainers, Saks rose 8.3% after Icelandic investment firm Baugur Group HF indicated it would like to explore prospect of acquiring the luxury retailer. Google +2.3% on a WSJ report it plans to soon unveil a proposal to bring Google-powered phones to the market. Dow closed down 0.6%, Nasdaq off 0.7%, Philly semicons +1.5%. (SHN) 

0838 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD continues to lose ground on a cross basis from its heady levels at the start of the week and continues to drain on its AUD/USD cross prospects as well, says Peter Pontikis, currency strategist at Suncorp. Profit-taking begun two days ago will likely continue into today and at least until FOMC statement tonight. Hard to see pair holding any gains above 0.9200. expect a close nearer to 0.9150. Major support at 0.9070 likely to be tested ahead of RBA meeting next Tuesday. AUD/USD now 0.9186. (JEG) 

0842 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts Transfield Services (TSE.AU) to Neutral from Outperform because of recent relative share price movements. "Since Oct. 16, TSE's share price has risen 19%, while the S&P/ASX 200 has risen 0.9%," CS says. "We believe that, short term, TSE now represents fair value." Keeps A$16.00 price target. "TSE's near-term growth prospects remain positive. Earnings growth of 20%+ should not be dismissed, in our view." Australian and NZ units well placed and Canada offers greatest growth potential with an expected A$1 billion revenue target over five years from Flint joint venture, which could more than double in next 2-3 years, CS says. Last trade A$15.90. (ABH) 

0845 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts Boart Longyear (BLY.AU) to Neutral from Outperform after BLY outperformed market by around 12% in past month. "We still remain long-term positive proponents of BLY and its opportunity to take fixed-cost savings out whilst executing a global drilling services roll-up strategy," CS says. Keeps A$2.75 target price. Last trade A$2.60. (ABH) 

0849 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS cuts Perpetual (PPT.AU) to Neutral after PPT said expects 10% 1H earnings growth; was below expectations, implies flat to negative growth on last FY2H. Cuts EPS forecasts by 5% for this FY08, 2% for FY09, FY10. "We have been concerned about PPT's lack of operating leverage and mixed fund flows for some time. We like the strong cash generation and consistent track record. However, given today's cautious outlook, we doubt the market's willingness to ascribe a premium to a business with optionality for diversification but limited evidence of traction for growth at this stage." Cuts price target to A$77.40 from A$86.00, vs stock last at A$73.76. (RBT) 

0911 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bearish, with SPI futures down 27 points at 6774.0 after overnight falls on Wall Street and in commodity prices. DJIA down 0.6% at 13792.47, Nasdaq near flat, S&P 500 down 0.7% after October consumer confidence fell. Proctor & Gamble fell 4.0% on weak results. CBOE VIC up 1.2 points at 21.07. U.S. 10-year bond yield down 0.2 point at 4.38%. AUD/USD near flat at 0.9191. Nymex crude down US$3.15 at US$90.38. Comex gold down US$4.80 at US$787.80. LME copper down 1.1%, zinc down 2.1%, aluminum down 0.1%, nickel down 0.3%. BHP ADRs at A$45.82 vs A$46.88 locally. Index last 6750.2. (DWR)

0955 [kennas] has found a nice wine bar in Cuzco to work out of tonight.


----------



## Sean K (5 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0716 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures sprinted to fresh record high, boosted by rosy U.S. jobs data plus outage at Petroplus' U.K. Coryton refinery after fire; December Nymex up $2.44 to $95.93/bbl, Brent on ICE up $2.36 to $92.21. "The big news (in Europe) has been the outages at the Petroplus refineries in the U.K. and Germany," said Rick Mueller at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in the Netherlands. "That's certainly going to support prices as we start heading into colder weather." Comex gold futures set new contract high on weaker dollar, higher crude; traders began pricing in inflation on U.S. jobs data, recent Fed rate cut plus 3Q GDP. December gold settled up $14.80 to $808.50/oz on Comex, after hitting $810.70, surpassing previous high of $808 set in May 2006; up $15.80 to $809.40 on CBOT. "They're starting to price in some inflation," said Bart Melek at BMO Capital Markets. Higher oil prices also supported gold, he said. Combined with lower interest rates "it certainly harkens us back to a time when inflation is again possible." December silver up 27.4 cents to $14.599 on Comex, up 40.8 cents to $14.733 on CBOT; Nymex January platinum up $11.90 to $1,462.70, December palladium up $1.50 to $377.40, all on stronger crude, gold plus weaker USD. LME base metals slightly stronger; copper continued to decline, market sentiment remains fragile on concerns over economic outlook. Traders, analysts said risk-averse herd mentality could drive metals lower; inventory builds weigh, especially for copper. Copper down $70 to $7435, lead up $140 to $3710, zinc up $33 to $2768, aluminum up $82 to $2622, nickel down $295 to $32150, tin unchanged at $16500. (BRD) 

0722 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks ended slightly higher Friday with a hard fought gain, as Merrill Lynch set off initial selling but Google marked its fourth record close of the week; the market bounced around because "investors are nervous that banks are in more trouble than anyone knows," said Tom O'Brien, chief executive at TFNN, a financial advisory firm. "The feeling is that another shoe may drop, and that's going to keep trading volatile." Merrill Lynch fell 7.9% as The Wall Street Journal reported it may have tried to delay taking losses by using off-balance-sheet transactions with hedge funds; however, the brokerage's shares rose 1.2% in after hours trading as it reiterated an earlier statement saying it hadn't engaged in any inappropriate transactions. Citigroup dropped 2% as Deutsche Bank cut its earnings estimates for Citigroup to reflect problems in the market for collateralized debt obligations; the drop followed a 6.9% fall on Thursday after downgrades by two analysts due to credit concerns. Google rose 1.1% as the Internet giant and social-networking site MySpace said they are teaming up for OpenSocial, a tool for building social applications across the web. Casino operator Las Vegas Sands lost 6.8% as it swung to a 3Q loss, blaming higher opening expenses and operating costs and a string of luck by gamblers. XM Satellite Radio Holdings was up 5.4% and Sirius Satellite Radio gained 5.1% after the broadcasters said an independent advisory service recommended shareholders approve the companies' merger; Ford Motor advanced 5.3% as negotiators for the auto maker and the United Auto Workers moved closer to a tentative agreement; Western Digital added 11% as the hard-disk-drive maker's 1Q earnings fell but still beat Wall Street's estimates. Dow closed up 0.2%, Nasdaq up 0.6%, Philly Semicons down 1.2%. (SRO) 

0803 [Dow Jones] Volatile equity markets dampen risk appetite as jitters surround major financials, capping AUD/USD gains, says RBC Capital, but expected RBA rate hike this week may boost. Notes spike might be limited as market already priced hike in. Focus will be on accompanying statement, hints on inflation outlook. AUD/USD last 0.9224, having touched 0.9343 last week. (EGC) 

0833 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD slips in early trade as Asian session reacts to weekend news of further credit crunch impact on U.S. financial stocks, with risk appetite softening on fears there may be further writedowns at Citigroup. "No surprise" pair is weakening in reaction, says ABN AMRO strategist Gregg Gibbs, but adds expected RBA rate hike and strong gold prices should add support. AUD/USD now 0.9209 from 0.9236 early in session. (EGC) 

0837 [Dow Jones] Nufarm (NUF.AU) close to accepting a buyout proposal from ChemChina, AFR reports. Without naming its sources, paper says an announcement could be made as early as today, with Nufarm managing director and shareholder Doug Rathbone offered an ongoing role. ChemChina and Blackstone are putting together a revised offer that could approach US$4 billion, people close to process told Dow Jones Friday. AFR tips potential counterbidders including Israel's Makhteshim-Agan (MAIN.TV) and buyout firm Permira. Nufarm wasn't immediately available for comment. (SVM) 

0838 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere downgrades Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN.AU) to Hold from Buy after Thailand increased its gold royalty rates. "There is no doubt that this change is a material negative for earnings and the share price reaction clearly reflects this," analyst says. "In our view, this action by the Thai government increases the risks surrounding the timing (and indeed the granting) for the mining lease extension." Price target A$5.50 vs last trade A$5.06. (SVM) 

0838 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch maintains Neutral on Tattersall's (TTS.AU) after downgrading its net profit estimates for FY08-FY10 by 2%-4%. Analyst says downgrades to forecasts for wagering due to Equine Influenza are partially offset by strength in Victorian gaming business. Last trade A$4.15. (SVM) 

0848 [Dow Jones] Odds of an RBA rate hike Nov. 7 very high with even PM Howard conceding the kind of inflationary pressures that would prompt further monetary policy tightening currently exist in Australian economy - despite fact that any hike would damage his ruling Liberal-National coalition's chances of reelection Nov. 24; "I don't like interest rates going up, but we have to ask ourselves, in the environment in which we now live... some inflationary pressure is unavoidable if you have a strong economy, you have high world oil prices and you have a drought, some inflation in the system is inevitable," Howard tells ABC television, adding: "yes, there may be upward pressure on interest rates, for the reasons I've outlined." Another RBA rate hike could be last straw for coalition, which was reelected 2004 on pledge to keep rates low; party has for some time been trailing main opposition Labor party in voter polls. (RAP) 

0850 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says it's difficult for Babcock & Brown Power (BBP.AU) to justify paying A$1,200/customer for AlintaAGL given it can't access the sort of retail scale benefits that were available to AGL (AGK.AU)/Origin in Queensland. "Even by applying full debt funding to this acquisition, our BBP price objective has fallen to A$3.40 (from A$3.75)," analyst says. Maintains at Buy. Last trade A$3.23.(SVM) 

0859 [Dow Jones] Australia's main opposition Labor Party on track for decisive victory in federal election Nov. 24; Galaxy poll in News Ltd. papers shows Labor leads ruling Liberal-National coalition by 54% to 46% on 2-party preferred basis, unchanged on poll taken mid-October. If repeated on election day, center-left Labor would win office in landslide. Still, with monetary policy likely to dominate week 4 of campaign - as most economists tip RBA will hike rates Nov. 7 to tame accelerating inflation pressures - PM Howard may take some heart from fact that voters won't blame current government if official interest rates do go up. Around 49% of electorate doesn't believe PM misled them on interest rates in 2004 election campaign, when government reelected on pledge to keep rates low. But 42% of voters believe he did. RBA has hiked rates 5 times since 2004, last time in August, and holds tightening bias. (RAP) 

0930 [kennas] is recovering from a weekend with a Shaman in the jungle outside of Cuzco.


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## moneymajix (5 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



> 0930 [kennas] is recovering from a weekend with a Shaman in the jungle outside of Cuzco.




WOW!


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## trinity (5 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



> Casino operator Las Vegas Sands lost 6.8% as it swung to a 3Q loss, blaming higher opening expenses and operating costs and a string of luck by gamblers.




  now now ... who just came from vegas???


----------



## Sean K (8 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0803 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD retreats sharply after surging overnight to test fresh 23-year high of 0.9400; pair last 0.9292. John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at NAB, says fall likely linked to profit-taking after AUD followed EUR sharply higher late Wednesday, weakness in stock markets overnight likely fueling additional selling. Support at 0.9350. Employment data at 0030 GMT next major hurdle. (JEG) 

0821 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere includes Coles (CGJ.AU) acquisition into its forecast for Wesfarmers (WES.AU) following yesterday's shareholder vote. Notes with a turnaround in Coles expected to take 3-5 years, the transaction is earnings dilutive initially, with broker's FY08 and FY09 EPS forecasts reducing by 7.4% (6-month contribution) and 3% respectively. "We believe there remains significant scope to improve the performance of Coles," analyst says. "Nevertheless, we are cognizant of the difficulties involved and the considerable head start that key competitor Woolworths has in terms of costs and market share." Keeps WES at Hold; price target A$45.68 vs last trade A$42.91.(SVM) 

0823 [Dow Jones] Australian October employment set to show a 20,000 rise on month with unemployment set to remain at 33-year low of 4.2%. Data due at 0030 GMT. Strength in employment growth has underpinned RBA's concern about potential wages breakout. Further gains in October would throw spotlight on risk of December rate hike. RBA hiked yesterday to 6.75% from 6.50%, leaving door open to further tap on policy brakes. NAB debt strategist Peter Jolly says risks are for a 30,000 rise in jobs, with unemployment falling to 4.1%. (JEG) 

0830 [Dow Jones] RBA expected to deliver 25bp rate hike to 6.75%, then point way to likelihood of at least one more hike next year. Dow Jones survey of 16 economists shows consensus that cash rate target at 7.00% by March. 2 major banks tipping 7.25% by mid-2008. RBA's statements today, Monday expected to forecast underlying price pressures to exceed 2-3% target for next 6 months. Inflation at "elevated level" in October, more than 1 rate hike likely needed to hose down price pressures, says Joshua Williamson at TD Securities; "The current pace of inflation makes an interest rate hike...almost certain," he says; "Inflation is also more broadly based than was the case earlier this year. (JEG) 

0840 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere says AGL's (AGK.AU) joint venture with Arrow (AOE.AU) to buy gas merchant and pipeline business of Enertrade from Queensland government is a minor positive from both a strategic and an earnings perspective. But key news flow in the short term will be any outlook comments provided at AGL's AGM today including clarity on earnings post its recent guidance downgrade, analyst says. Maintains Hold; price target A$13.00 vs last trade A$12.89. (SVM) 

0845 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch cuts CSR (CSR.AU) earnings estimates for this FY by 6.8% to A$173.1 million from A$185.8 million to reflect lower sugar volume assumptions, higher milling costs and production issues at the Tomago aluminum smelter. Keeps at Neutral. "The short-term earnings outlook in both sugar and building products remains challenging, which we are balancing against the clear medium- to longer-term attractions of the glass business, a potential upward permanent shift in global sugar prices and a recovery in Australian east coast housing." Last trade A$3.26. (ABH) 

0846 [Dow Jones] Japan's Kirin (2503.TO) has made a formal A$2.6 billion-plus offer to buy 100% of dairy and juice producer National Foods from Philippines' San Miguel (SMCB.PH), AFR reports. Without naming its sources, paper says Kirin's move is in contrast to speculation several months ago it may only be interested in a 49% stake. San Miguel President Ramon Ang told reporters earlier this week that the board is scheduled to discuss the sale at its meeting today. AFR also notes talk possibility National Foods could be merged with Dairy Farmers. Lion Nathan (LNN.AU), 46% owned by Kirin, is also tipped as possible beneficiary from shakeup and could snare San Miguel's coveted premium brewer J Boag & Son. Comment from National Foods wasn't immediately available.(SVM) 

0919 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bearish, with overnight futures down 138 points at 6549.0 as stocks and commodity prices plunged. DJIA down 2.6% at 13300.02, Nasdaq down 2.7%, S&P 500 down 2.9% on credit crisis, USD weakness on Chinese comments about diversifying reserves, and record oil prices. Washington Mutual fell 17.3% after flagging continued loan defaults. GM fell 5.1% on 3Q loss due to accounting change. AIG fell 6.7% before 3Q results. Amex fell 5.5%, Citigroup fell 4.8%, Morgan Stanley fell 6.1%. CBOE VIX up 5.1 points at 26.49. U.S. 10-year bond yield at 4.33% vs 4.37%. AUD/USD at 0.9275 vs 0.9330. Spot gold up US$5.60 at US$830.1 after hitting US$845.40. Nymex crude down 33 cents at US$96.37 after hitting US$98.62 record high. LME copper down 2.2%, zinc down 2.1%, aluminum down 0.8%, nickel down 0.3%. BHP ADRs at A$43.31 vs A$44.86 locally. Index last 6692.4. (DWR) 

0920 [Dow Jones] Shares in Dyno Nobel (DXL.AU) may rise on news its 30%-owned associate FabChem China (I54.SG) EPS rose 15.8% in the Sept. 30 half-year. DXL says FabChem's EBITDA margins will improve further after it obtained an export license and FabChem's two brownfield site expansions come on line in 2008, tripling its detonator production and boosting explosives production by 60%. DXL bought its FabChem stake in January for US$31.8 million to gain access to the fast-growing Chinese market. DXL is seeking to reenter markets after its former owners sold its businesses outside of North America and Australia to rival Orica (ORI.AU). DXL last trade A$2.40, ORI A$29.65. (ABH) 

0928 [Dow Jones] News Corp (NWS.AU) 1Q net income falls 13% after year-earlier investment gains including from sale of shares in Sky Brasil, Phoenix, set high bar. Reports US$732 million net income, or 23 cents/share, down from US$843 million a year earlier. But revenue rose 19% to US$7.07 billion, and result is ahead of analysts' expectation of 22 cents/share earnings on US$6.5 billion revenue. Signals it's on track for full year, says it's "comfortable" with its expectation to increase operating income for FY08 by "low teens" percentage. But since NWS is highly market-sensitive stock, likely to be caught up in market fall today after U.S. stocks plunged overnight. (RBT)


----------



## Sean K (9 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0634 [Dow Jones] News overnight that BHP Billiton (BHP) has approached rival miner Rio Tinto (RIO) likely to dominate trading interest in Australia, flow through to NZ today, says Auckland-based trader at major brokerage. BHP Billiton last night ended months of speculation by confirming it had approached Rio Tinto in deal said to be worth more than $100 billion. "That's a massive deal no doubt, you are bound to see people tack on to this M&A story over the next several weeks," says trader; adds while Rio Tinto has rejected the offer, "it makes the prospect of a sweetened bid likely, and this will keep speculators pushing the stock price up." Says while Wall Street slump likely to keep equities markets under pressure, M&A set to pace activity. Rio Tinto shares raced up 22% in London overnight after closing up 1.1% at A$113.40 on ASX yesterday pre-bid confirmation. (SHN) 

0735 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures down as deepening worries about U.S. economy undercut price support from oil-supply disruptions; December Nymex down 91 cents at $95.46/bbl, Brent on ICE down 42 cents at $92.82. "I think the market is still bullish and wants to go higher, but there are considerable headwinds out there in worries about the U.S. economy and growth in the economy," said John Kilduff of MF Global. "This affects energy demand growth." Gold futures up on speculative buying due to inflation fears, weaker USD but pared gains later in session; December gold closed up $4 to $837.50/oz on Comex, up $3.80 to $837.20 on CBOT; December silver up 19 cents to $15.515 on Comex, up 23.8 cents to $15.539 on CBOT. Gold rose despite lower U.S. equities as traders bought it as safe-haven play, said Zachary Oxman of Wisdom Financial; added rotation out of stocks into gold "is the move that will define 2008". January platinum up $11.30 to $1,473.60, December palladium up 85 cents to $377.50. Copper led LME lower as players kept unwinding positions amid USD weakness, high crude, concerns broader credit-market contagion denting 4Q demand; copper slumped to 2-month low of $7,185/ton. Overall negative equity-market sentiment added to selling, BaseMetals.com analyst Will Adams said; added still thinks "global consumption is stronger than people are giving it credit for". Copper ended down $110 to $7200, lead down $115 to $3470, zinc up $10 to $2770, aluminum up $6 to $2629, nickel up $550 to $32750, tin down $150 to $16775. (BRD) 

0758 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD looking strong as Asia session gets underway. Gains on Wall Street have pushed pair up from 0.9229 to 0.9287 now. Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at CBA, says comments by Fed chief Bernanke overnight show central bank in two minds as market turmoil and inflation risks compete for its attention. Grace says data will show the way for Fed, but as yet there's no clear case for further U.S. rate cut. Local traders also watching reports BHP Billiton was rejected in a bid for Rio Tinto. Grace says takeover would create a mining behemoth but it's doubtful if any transaction would impact AUD/USD directly. Support now in place for AUD/USD, with U.S./Australia 2-year bond spread now gaping at 325 basis points. Test of 0.9300 likely. (JEG) 

0808 [Dow Jones]Goldman Sachs JBWere says David Jones (DJS.AU) 1Q sales growth of 9.7% was in line with its forecast, with like-for-like sales growth slightly above its estimate. Retains Hold recommendation. "We expect David Jones' EPS growth to remain in the low double-digits," analyst says. "In our view, this will result in a p/e which trades at a small discount to the Large Industrials ex-banks." Price target A$5.14 vs last trade A$4.80. (SVM) 

0825 [Dow Jones]Goldman Sachs JBWere says Lion Nathan's (LNN.AU) A$325 million acquisition of J. Boag is strategically sound, low risk but at a full price. "Whilst the Boag's acquisition is a strategic positive, full price means financial upside is long-dated," analyst says. Adds potential for capital management over next 2-3 years minimal, with EBITA interest cover steady at less than 5X. Maintains Hold ahead of FY results Nov. 21. Price target A$9.90 vs last trade A$8.99. (SVM) 

0826 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere upgrades Platinum Australia (PLA.AU) to Buy from Hold after it was granted New Order Mining Rights, or NOMR, for the Smokey Hills Platinum Project in South Africa. "The granting of the NOMR significantly lowers the company risk and thus we have upgraded our target price to A$3.00 (was A$2.25)," analyst says. Last trade A$2.55.(SVM) 

0838 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says AGL (AGK.AU) reaffirming FY08 guidance yesterday is positive but broker maintains its forecast at the lower end of management guidance to account for risks around a tight summer for power prices, customer churn issues. "AGL's medium-term outlook remains unclear," analyst says. Expects outcome of AGL's review will see it step away from its 15% medium-term EPS growth target and adopt a more realistic 5-10% target going forward. Maintains Neutral. Last trade A$12.97. (SVM) 

0845 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says Lion Nathan (LNN.AU) is paying a big price for J Boag, but the price isn't as big when you dig deeper. "Foster's currently distributes Boag's products in mainland Australia, and we believe that Boag's probably pays around A$5 million to A$6 million in distribution fees to Foster's - which will be eliminated after June 2008," analyst says. "In addition, we would expect the owner of Boag to be more incentivised to grow the Boag brand - as opposed to a competitor." Notes, consequently, LNN's EBIT for Boag will probably increase relatively quickly to around A$25 million and LNN has probably paid an EBIT multiple closer to 13x. Maintains Neutral. Last trade A$8.99. (SVM) 

0847 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD got a kick higher in early Asia trading as Wall St rebounded off earlier low to close largely flat. Greg Gibbs, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO, says getting a fix on near-term direction hard with a lot of factors washing through market and impacting sentiment. But overall, AUD/USD has held up well to a week full of fresh subprime concerns, with healthy yield spreads increasingly generating demand for pair. Gibbs expects range of 0.9220 to 0.9330 now 0.9271. Watch on BHP Billiton's (BHP.AU) bid for Rio Tinto (RIO.AU), but no immediate currency implications with bid rejected and no certainty a successful bid would wash through the AUD. (JEG) 

0849 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says Lion Nathan (LNN.AU) is paying a big price for J. Boag, but the price isn't as big when you dig deeper. "Foster's currently distributes Boag's products in mainland Australia, and we believe that Boag's probably pays around A$5 million to A$6 million in distribution fees to Foster's - which will be eliminated after June 2008," analyst says. "In addition, we would expect the owner of Boag's to be more incentivized to grow the Boag's brand - as opposed to a competitor." Notes, consequently, Lion's EBIT for Boag's will probably increase relatively quickly to around A$25 million and Lion has probably paid an EBIT multiple closer to 13X. Maintains at Neutral. Last trade A$8.99. (SVM) 

[0914] kennas can not believe he's just watched 20 mins of 'Girls of the Playboy Mansion'.


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## Bomba (9 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

"[0914] kennas can not believe he's just watched 20 mins of 'Girls of the Playboy Mansion'." LOL


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## Sean K (12 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0656 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD slips to 3-week low of 0.9030 in Wellington trade after tumbling offshore on renewed credit jitters, fears of further bad news in financial sector from U.S. subprime crisis; last 0.9043 vs 0.9290 late Friday in Sydney, with liquidation of yen-funded carry trades weighing; AUD/JPY suffers big loss, hits 3.5 week low of 99.93, last 99.98 vs 104.73 late Friday. Bank of NZ FX strategist says today's RBA quarterly policy statement will be main focus, but thinks AUD will stay pressured lower unless there's positive surprise from statement or Wednesday's 3Q wages report. (SHN) 

0713 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks tumbled Friday on escalating worries about U.S. economy; "I think escalating fear is behind the selling streak," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management; "there is a sort of universal opinion the U.S. economy is weakening and the Federal Reserve is on the sidelines and by the time it acts it will be too late." Mortgage-buying giant Fannie Mae fell 1.6%, to 49 after reporting additional unrealized loss of $955 million in the value of private-label securities backed by subprime and Alt-A mortgages through end of 3Q. Auction house Sotheby's fell 8.6% on 3Q net loss, extending prior day's 28% plunge when works by masters such as Van Gogh, Picasso and Monet went unsold at key auction. Walt Disney fell 2.6% as 4Q revenue undershot expectations. Technology stocks also fell, sustaining previous day's rout after Cisco Systems' disappointing revenue outlook. Cisco fell 3.5%, IBM off 5.5%. General Motors lost 5.6% as selling interest continue following company's biggest quarterly loss earlier in week. Merck rose 2.1% after drug maker agreed to pay about $4.85 billion to settle a large portion of the claims over injuries allegedly linked to its Vioxx painkiller. Dow closed down 1.7%, down 4.1% for week - 3rd biggest weekly decline this year. Nasdaq off 2.5%, Philly semicons flat. (SHN) 

0744 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude slightly higher in low volume on expectations options trading might inspire run at $100/bbl early this week, offsetting concerns about U.S. economic growth; December Nymex up 86 cents at $96.32, Brent on ICE up 39 cents at $93.18. Options on December crude futures expire Tuesday with high open interest in $100 call options; "A lot of the market focus is centering on these $100 crude options", if prices move closer to $100, options trading could provide added lift, said Andy Lebow of MF Global. Gold futures down slightly on stronger performance by USD, weaker equities; traders booked profits in atmosphere of general economic uncertainty. December gold down $2.80 to $834.70/oz on Comex, down $2.30 to $834.90 on CBOT; December silver up 3 cents to $15.545 on Comex, up 2.9 cents to $15.549 on CBOT; December palladium off $1.25 to $376.25; January platinum down $47.60 to $1,426. "Precious metals were generally weaker today, as the U.S. dollar made modest gains against the euro and carry trades were unwound," BNP Paribas said in note. "We suspect the gold - and hence silver - price is set for further losses in the short term." LME base metals mixed as credit-market concerns pressured LME copper below key support while nickel rose; broader financial markets expected to sway direction this week; "Credit markets still aren't functioning properly and lenders have tightened lending standards. The reality is starting to sink in that it wasn't just a one- or two-month wonder, it's a much more deep-seated problem, and that's why you've seen prices come off," said BNP Paribas analyst David Thurtell. Copper down $175 to $7025, lead down $70 to $3540, zinc off $50 to $2720, aluminum down $21 to $2608, nickel up $1050 to $33800, tin up $175 to $16950. (BRD) 

0810 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD falls to lowest since Oct. 25 on US "risk flare" after Wachovia Corp. is latest to announce writedowns, Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts says. Pair hits low of 0.9036 in early Asian trade. Weak Wall Street lead pushes USD/JPY to 18-month low, weighs on high-yielding currencies. Roberts expects "pretty bumpy" AUD/USD range of 0.9030-0.9100. Traders to take cues from RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy, due 0030 GMT. "Relatively hawkish" statement expected to support pair. AUD/USD last at 0.9070 from 0.9110 in late New York Friday.(SRH) 

0829 [Dow Jones] Shares in Primary Health Care (PRY.AU) may fall after 15.5 million new shares sold to institutional investors at A$11.90 each, 3.2% discount to the stock's last traded price of A$12.29, to raise A$184.5 million to fund expansion; last week it offered A$4.10/share in cash for stock in rival Symbion Health (SYB.AU) it doesn't already own. PRY has 20% stake in SYB, which has previously rejected offers by PRY, agreed to A$2.76 billion cash-and-shares proposal from Healthscope (HSP.AU), private equity partners. (ABH) 

0852 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch says National Australia Bank's (NAB.AU) plan to keep cost growth below inflation out to 2010 is "challenging" given current trends, but gives bank benefit of doubt and bumps up FY09 EPS forecast by 2%. "Despite this we don't find value in the stock and retain some caution on revenues and bad debts," analyst says, keeps Neutral rating on NAB. Analyst's large bank pecking order is St George (SGB.AU), Westpac (WBC.AU), ANZ (ANZ.AU), Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) then NAB. (LMF) 

0854 [Dow Jones] Orica (ORI.AU) may rise after posting record FY net profit of A$497.8 million, up 31% from a year earlier, and ahead of analysts' expectations of A$481.3 million. ORI, which has been benefiting from rising demand for mining explosives to meet China's growing needs for base metals and energy, expects earnings this FY before one-time items, to be higher because of an additional contributions from recent acquisitions and continuing demand for explosives. Last trade A$29.45. (ABH) 

0857 [Dow Jones] ABN AMRO raises National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) target to A$47.17 from A$44.00, keeps at Buy after FY result, which came in ahead of expectations. Says while the outperformance "was not A1 quality", key positive from result was the surprise rollout of expense growth within inflation for an additional two years. NAB now ABN AMRO's second bank pick behind Westpac (WBC.AU). "We consider NAB a leverage play on expenses together with exposure to a robust business-lending environment." (LMF) 

0902 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch lowers Brambles (BXB.AU) 12-month target price to A$13.21 from A$14.50, cutting EPS forecasts for FY08 and FY09 after lifting AUD assumptions to reflect spot rates around 92 U.S. cents. Retains Buy with BXB last A$12.30 and says "investors are getting a free option" on either a takeover bid, which "remains a real chance" from either Toll (TOL.AU) or Asciano (AIO.AU) despite AIO denial it's currently considering, or turnaround in European CHEP business. (WEL) 

0909 [Dow Jones] National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) appears to be in a sweet spot in terms of both revenue and costs, says Goldman Sachs JBWere. "The positive jaws between revenue and costs will see NAB exceed peer earnings growth in FY08 and FY09 by 3.0% and 1.5% respectively," analyst says. Says quality of FY07 result was high, bumps up forward earnings estimate. "Our forecasts now have NAB delivering EPS growth of 13.5% in FY08, 11.1% in FY09 and 9.1% in FY10," analyst says. Keeps Buy rating on NAB with A$47.27 target. NAB last at A$43.40. (LMF)


----------



## Sean K (13 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0758 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures fell to 1-week low as traders locked in gains on stronger USD, concerns slowing U.S. growth could hit energy demand; fall damped speculation that $100 call options may draw prices to that level before December contract expires today. December Nymex down $1.70 to $94.62/bbl, Brent on ICE off $1.48 to $91.70. "This market is maybe setting itself to turn over", start heading lower, said Eric Wittenauer of A.G. Edwards. "The options, and the realization we can't hit $100 before expiration, weighed on prices, as did U.S. and global economic worries and a strong day for the dollar." Precious metals fell as lower crude, higher USD sparker profit-taking across complex; December gold down $27.00 to $807.70 on Comex, down $26.80 to $807.80 on CBOT; December silver down 78.3 cents to $14.762 on Comex, down 78.2 cents to $14.771 on CBOT; January platinum off $35.20 to $1,390.80, December palladium down $4 to $372.25. "The market has really come a long way; it's time to take some profits," said Frank Lesh of Future Path Trading. "There weren't any buyers at the $840s. At these levels up here you have to expect this kind of volatility and these kinds of moves." LME copper continued falling as risk aversion weighed on base metals; if investors continue to trade broader macro outlook through copper market, further falls likely across metals, analysts, traders said. "The clear message from the respective price action of the base metals complex is that copper continues to be the main economic bellwether ... and the fact is that many investors continue to trade their broader macro outlook through the copper market," said JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen. Copper down $75 to $6950, lead down $76 to $3464, zinc off $89 to $2631, aluminum down $38 to $2570, nickel off $200 to $33600, tin down $50 to $16900. (BRD) 

0802 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD expected to remain under pressure following some further Wall Street deterioration, says TD Securities chief economist Josh Williamson says; pair has hit 3-week low of 0.8787. Expect range of 0.8750-0.8950. Risk aversion likely to remain key theme in Asian trade, with Australian equities likely to fall, weighing on pair. Williamson says commodity, oil prices also down on signs of "reduced demand from China". Notes most AUD/USD losses have been Asian investors pulling out of carry-trade positions. (SRH) 

0849 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD is on its way to fair value point of 0.8500, likely to get there in "matter of days" as risk appetite diminishes, says Suncorp treasury analyst Peter Pontikis. Expect range of 0.8720-0.8810 in Asian trade. Notes "overwhelming pressure" is for September, October gains in the EUR, AUD, other carry trades to continue to be wound back. Pontikis says "better support" for AUD/USD found below 0.84-0.85, "not here". Pair last at 0.8790. (SRH) 

0907 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ANZ (ANZ.AU) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Goldman Sachs JBWere, arguing its 16% discount to peers, the largest since October 1999 and above historical 7% average, is "overplayed," with little risk of earnings downside, despite uncertainties on the recovery of its institutional business and the form of its new Asian strategy. Tweaks EPS forecasts for each of next 3 years higher by less than 1%, with A$31.86 12-month target price vs ANZ last A$27.40. (WEL) 

0916 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bearish, with overnight futures down 38 points at 6446.0 amid further slide in Wall Street and commodity prices. DJIA down 0.4% at 12987.55, S&P 500 down 1.0%, Nasdaq down 1.7%; 4th straight fall on Wall Street amid credit crisis fallout with E-Trade flagging writedowns Friday. Countrywide said its credit rating may fall to junk. Times reported HSBC may be next with writedowns. CBOE VIX up 2.6 points at 31.09. Nymex crude down US$1.70 at US$94.62. Spot gold down US$28.30 at US$803.20. AUD/USD at 0.8787 vs 0.9107. LME copper down 1.1%, zinc down 3.3%, aluminum down 1.5%, nickel down 0.1%. London-listed BHP down 1.3%, Rio Tinto up 0.5%. BHP ADRs at A$40.40 vs A$41.70 locally. Index last 6455.3. (DWR) 

0919 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere raises FY08 earnings forecast for Computershare (CPU.AU) by 12% following yesterday's guidance upgrade. Notes based on its upgraded estimates, the stock is trading on an FY08 PE of 18x. "This is undemanding relative to the broader market and at the low end of the company's historical range," analyst says. "Given where we are in the cycle, we are not advocating a top of range PE. However, we still believe there is room for upside from current levels and would continue to buy the stock into the early A$10s." Maintains Buy. Raises target price to A$11.00 from A$10.60 vs last trade A$9.80. (SVM) 

0926 [Dow Jones] Macquarie Group (MQG.AU) net profit rises 45% to record A$1.06 billion in 6 months ended Sept. 30, up from A$730 million in 1H06. Result is ahead of MQG's own guidance in September that profit would rise 40% to A$1.02 billion. Also beats analysts' forecasts - median was A$1.03 billion, according to Dow Jones survey of 7 analysts, within tight A$1.02 billion-A$1.04 billion range. But MQG has reputation for under promising, over delivering, shares rallied yesterday on expectation of strong result, so some of good news could be factored in. And A$1.45/share 1H dividend is below median market forecast of A$1.64. Despite some analysts expecting MQG would hold off on giving specific guidance until later in year, CEO Allan Moss says expects 2H result to be at least in line with prior year's 2H result of A$733 million, but down on very strong 1H. (RBT) 

0929 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere says Flight Centre's acquisition of Liberty Travel in U.S. is into a market that's mature, highly competitive and facing a tough economic outlook. "By Flight Centre's own admission, Liberty has experienced flat revenues and declining margins in its retail operation in recent years," analyst says. "But Flight Centre achieves scale in U.S. retail/wholesale segments (Flight Centre's operation a perennial loss-maker), can leverage Liberty's retail shops into SME segment and lift margins by implementing its IT and retail systems." Maintains at Hold. Sees upside risk to earnings this FY given robust demand conditions but notes medium-term growth increasingly driven by M&A/capex rather than operating leverage/cost reductions. (SVM) 

0930 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan upgrades Lion Nathan (LNN.AU) to Overweight from Neutral due to improved valuation, an accelerating earnings growth profile from FY09, and defensive qualities of the business. "However, we also note that the stock is likely to remain weak in the near term due to the outlook for another year of low-single-digit earnings growth in FY08 due to commodity costs and dilution from the Boags acquisition, and the potential for an increasing perception of risk in the stock on the back of increased rhetoric from Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL.AU) on its intentions in the beer market at its upcoming trading update." Price target A$10.20 vs last trade A$8.83. "We would view share price weakness over the next few months as a good buying opportunity."(SVM


----------



## Sean K (14 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0738 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD pulls back losses in overnight New York session, buoyed by positive equities across Europe, U.S. AUD may get further support from 3Q wages index due 0030 GMT; market expecting wage gains of 1.0%, but anything above, on back of strong NAB business survey, means pressure will be on RBA for December rate hike. AUD/USD now 0.8947, from overnight low of 0.8888. (EGC) 

0740 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures sharply down on IEA's forecast of slower-than-expected world oil demand growth, expiration of options, startling traders who expected push towards $100/bbl. December Nymex down $3.45 to $91.17, Brent on ICE down $3.13 to $88.85. "Not only is the market not approaching $100, it's being exacerbated by the fact that the December crude options are expiring today," said Peter Donovan of Vantage Trading. Nymex gold, silver futures lower amid big fall in crude; platinum, palladium boosted by bullish forecast for platinum from Johnson Mathey; December gold down $8.70 at $799.00, December silver down 15.2 cents at $14.61; January platinum up $20.00 at $1,417.00, December palladium up $1.25 at $373.50. "A lot of today's weakness (in gold, silver) is profit-taking, and not a lot has changed in the market fundamentally," said Frank Lesh at Future Path Trading. LME base metals consolidated, lower prices attracted buyers; complex fragile, direction depends on equities; "Uncertainty continues to cloud sentiment and quiet physical markets are offering little in the way of support," Barclays Capital said; added aside from zinc, LME stocks increased across board, many deliveries to Europe, U.S. reflecting lower physical premiums, lackluster buying. Copper down $25 to $6925, lead up $18 to $3483, zinc up $4 to $2635, aluminum up $7 to $2577, nickel down $200 to $33400.0-33500, tin unchanged at $16900. (BRD) 

0808 [Dow Jones] AUD set for positive Asian session, helped by a rebound in stocks overnight boosting risk sentiment, says CBA strategist Richard Grace. Notes perception AUD had fallen too far, losing around 6.0% in past week, but fundamentals now driving AUD in all crosses. "I suspect the Aussie will continue to trend higher." Notes 3Q wages data due 0130 GMT "could certainly give the Aussie a boost". Expects AUD/USD resistance at 0.8990, support at 0.8930; pair now at 0.8972 from overnight low 0.8881. (EGC) 

0810 [Dow Jones] AUD picks up against USD, JPY, but fragile investor confidence means cautious times are ahead, say strategists at nabCapital. Note comments on JPY appreciation by Japanese PM helping lift AUD, but says another slide in global equities will trigger further carry trade liquidation. In Asian session, views AUD/USD bounce toward 0.8970 as selling opportunity, with initial support at 0.8880. Says 3Q wage index due 0130 GMT will have to be a "screamer" to prompt RBA December rate hike; market expects 1.0%. (EGC) 

0828 [Dow Jones] Australian PM Howard still under fire for spending promises that some say would reduce budget surplus in future years below ruling coalition's goal of 1% of GDP. Howard tells ABC radio he's "absolutely certain" surplus won't fall below that; says in past three years surpluses have been above forecast, although he's not banking on that continuing in order to satisfy goal. Coalition likely happy for focus to be on economic management, for which voters rate coalition more able than opposition Labor Party. But still no sign that voters are returning to coalition, which remains a long way behind Labor in opinion polls and set for big defeat on Nov. 24. (ILM) 

1004 [Dow Jones] Shares in Incitec Pivot (IPL.AU) are poised to rise after IPL reported net profit for last FY increased to $A205.3 million, from A$46.7 million a year earlier. IPL beat analysts' mean estimate of A$198.3 million. IPL's earnings have been boosted by record global ammonium nitrate prices because of shortages and rising demand as well as a restructure its business and its A$165 million Southern Cross Fertilisers acquisition. IPL expects continued strength in fertilizer prices, but anticipates difficult trading conditions for domestic sales and continued strength in the Australian dollar, says chief Julian Segal. Last trade A$87.00. (ABH) 

0905 [Dow Jones] Focus for AUD/USD gains switches to domestic data, with all eyes on 3Q wages due 0030 GMT, says RBC senior currency strategist Sue Trinh. Note while market expects 1.0% gain, a 1.1% reading would be enough to jolt the RBA, stoking the December rate hike debate, and lifting AUD. RBC expects AUD/USD to climb to 0.9200 by year-end, 0.9600 in 1Q 2008. Pair now 0.8954. (EGC) 

0907 [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse says its confidence in Newcrest (NCM.AU) management to deliver on its Telfer promises is growing. Investor confidence in Telfer mine has in the past been undermined by a series of downgrades and disappointments. On a site visit to the mine, CS analysts say management is confident it can now deliver. "We are increasingly comfortable that management are now in control of Telfer and the production and costs should be more predictable and stable," CS says. Maintains Neutral rating with A$28 target price. Newcrest last traded at A$32.81. (APW) 

0913 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bullish, with overnight futures up 104 points at 6625.0 as Wall Street surged. DJIA up 2.5% at 13307.09, S&P 500 up 2.9%, Nasdaq up 3.5%. First up day in five days after Goldman Sachs said doesn't expect big hit from subprime, Wal-Mart 3Q profit beat consensus and tipped strong 4Q, and crude oil prices plunged. August pending home sales edged up to 85.7 as expected. CBOE VIX down 7 points at 24.10. Nymex crude down US$3.45 at US$91.17. Comex gold down US$8.70 at US$799.00. U.S. 10-year bond yield up 4.4 bps at 4.27%. AUD/USD at 0.8973 vs 0.8787. LME base metals about flat. London-listed BHP down 1.0%, Rio Tinto down 4.7%. BHP ADRs at A$41.92 vs A$41.80 locally. Index last 6515.2. (DWR) 

0914 [Dow Jones] ABN AMRO says given rapidly rising commodity costs, an approaching AGM and a falling share price, it is prime time for Goodman Fielder (GFF.AU) to downgrade. But analyst says risk of a 5%-plus downgrade is limited, suggesting strong buying opportunity. "We believe the extent of the fall in GFF's share price in the past month is unwarranted," analyst says. "While we concur trading conditions have intensified, our analysis of what the present share price is anticipating with respect to FY08 suggests the market is factoring in a 13-15% downgrade to net profit after tax." Adds such a downgrade is unlikely and expects management will guide flat to modest growth in its AGM trading outlook update on Nov. 22. Maintains at Buy. Trims price target to A$2.60 from A$2.70 vs last trade A$2.01.(SVM)


----------



## Sean K (15 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0705 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude reversed previous session's options-related slide on expectations for colder-than-normal weather in U.S. northeast, plus traders bet on 4th consecutive fall in U.S. stockpiles; data due today. December Nymex up $2.92 to $94.09/bbl, Brent on ICE up $2.53 to $91.36. "Yesterday's sell-off was clearly driven by options expiration, and, apart from the IEA revisions, nothing has really changed" to alleviate perceived tightness, said Addison Armstrong at TFS Energy Futures; expects slowing demand to eventually push prices back down to $70, but not in near term. Gold futures up on stronger crude, weaker USD: December gold up $15.70 to $814.70/oz on Comex, up $15.30 to $814.30 on CBOT. Andrew Montano at Scotia Mocatta said gains come after liquidation earlier in week as participants got more risk averse; Bill O'Neill at LOGIC Advisors said market was due to correct; "It makes the market healthier and continues the long-term uptrend." December silver followed gold higher, up 45.5 cents to $15.065 on Comex, up 44.4 cents to $15.052 on CBOT. January platinum up $33.80 to $1,446.10, December palladium up 30 cents to $373.80. LME copper rallied after strong earthquake rocked northern Chile; market continues to watch for disruptions to local miners; alongside stronger equities, pushed rest of LME higher, tin rising to record high $17,575/ton on momentum, technical buying. Copper up $205 to $7,130, lead up $52 to $3,535, zinc up $25 to $2,660, aluminum up $32 to $2,609, nickel bucked trend, down $300 to $33,100, tin up $650 to $17,550. Investor sentiment towards base metals generally uncertain, said Barclays Capital; added direction dictated by equity movements. (BRD) 

0727 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD starts Asia day weak following last-minute retreat on Wall Street. USD strength on back of firm strong U.S. retail sales and benign PPI data overnight also putting cap on AUD for now. Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at CBA, says Wall Street still seems to be driving sentiment. No major Australian data scheduled, so quiet session likely in Asia. Grace expects support at 0.8950. Now 0.8968. (JEG) 

0742 [Dow Jones] Kevin Rudd, leader of Australia's main opposition Labor Party, sticking to line that his center-left party heeding warnings from RBA on impact of public spending on inflation; tells ABC radio A$2.3 billion in new spending pledges unveiled at yesterday's campaign launch in Brisbane focused on easing infrastructure bottlenecks, addressing skills crisis, rather than fueling domestic demand. But Rudd swats away question on how previously announced plans for over A$30 billion in income tax cuts over next three years can avoid stoking already overheated economy, potentially pushing up interest rates further. Instead, claims economic high ground over ruling Liberal-National coalition, which promised new spending costing around A$9 billion Monday. Still, most economists think mounting spending tally from both sides of politics ahead of Nov. 24 federal election will play a role in likely 1Q08 rate hike. (RAP) 

0757 [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse reaffirms Overweight stance on Australian banking sector, has a positive view on banks due to their defensive appeal in an environment of slowing economic growth. "We see banks as offering at least fair value within a domestic market context, with consensus EPS growth that is competitive with the non-bank market," analyst says. Says ANZ (ANZ.AU) is its top sector pick, reckons stock has been oversold on Asia acquisition concerns. National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) second pick, followed by Westpac (WBC.AU), St. George (SGB.AU) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU). (LMF) 

0758 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Cabcharge (CAB.AU) upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan. Analyst says it's modestly upgrading FY08 and FY09 earnings forecasts following a recent catch-up with management and release of July-September 2007 JV results. "We believe the recent fare hike in NSW will combine with stronger-than-expected payment momentum in bank-issued cards and Cabcharge accounts to produce upside to our prior earnings forecasts," analyst says. Price target A$11.60 vs last trade A$10.24. (SVM) 

0759 [Dow Jones] UBS says it has a 5.09% stake in Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) held for various custodians, signaling investors are taking positions in the hope of a higher offer than current BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) all-shares bid. "Funds can see there is a game on and it is by no means over yet," Stock Resource mining analyst Steve Bartrop says. UBS stake bought between August and November. (APW) 

0800 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD fair value model shows AUD/USD as cheap below 0.8950 and expensive above 0.9300. The point estimate of "fair value" of 0.9120 would rise to 0.9230 if risk appetite returned to its level of Oct. 31, when the Fed cut rates, says NAB strategist John Kyriakopoulos. Asian equities will be the guide to investor risk appetite and carry trade demand on the day. The maturity of A$650 uridashi bonds could damp upside potential for AUD/USD, especially coupled with late Wall Street weakness. Expects support at 0.8940. Any gains to struggle ahead of 0.9000. Now 0.8955. (JEG) 

0809 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO reckons further capital raisings could be on cards for St. George (SGB.AU) after company announced share placement yesterday. Person familiar with situation told Dow Jones Newswires company placed 21.9 million shares at A$35 each via bookbuild overnight; unconfirmed by company. ABN AMRO notes in SGB estimates additional capital raised via share placement provides buffer to risk-weighted asset growth of around A$8.5 billion. "However, this represents only 13.5% growth," analyst says. "Given the current cost of securitization is less attractive versus the rates achieved prior to the credit crunch, we believe SGB may require additional capital prior to the end of FY08, potentially resulting in further dilution." Keeps Neutral rating on SGB, says with stock trading at premium to peers, plus further capital raisings likely, "we continue to rank the bank as our least preferred bank in the sector". Targets stock at A$37.60; closed yesterday at A$38.20. (LMF)


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## Sean K (20 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0805 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD is "passed its best", showing early signs of long decline with recent falls in U.S. equities heralding further slowdown in global growth, says Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts. Pair retreats well back from 0.9000 after Goldman Sachs downgraded Citigroup to Sell on estimates of greater writedowns, triggering further pullback in risk appetite. Roberts expects pair in 0.8820-0.8865 range in Asian trade. AUD/USD likely to fall below 0.8000 by end of 2008. Notes commodity prices starting to decline with "economic growth outlook just starting to fade." Pair last at 0.8840.(SRH)

0822 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures higher in quiet trade, supported by colder-than-normal temperatures in U.S. northeast plus OPEC-inspired uncertainty about USD; January Nymex up 80 cents to $94.64/bbl, Brent on ICE up 66 cents to $92.28/bbl. "A lot of the strength seems to be coming from the colder weather, and the OPEC (heads of state) meeting at the weekend" is also helping, said Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading Corp. Gold futures down as equities slumped, USD provided little guidance, traders booked profits; December gold down $9 to $778/oz on Comex, down $8.30 to $778.70 on CBOT. Trader said gold will likely fall $20 or $30 before Thanksgiving holiday; said trading-floor sentiment "not looking good", with light trading, fund-selling pressuring gold from near-steady levels earlier. Silver futures also lower on profit-taking; December silver down 35 cents to $14.16 on Comex, off 33.4 cents to $14.185 on CBOT; January platinum up $3.90 to $1,457.10, December palladium down $4.55 to $361.30. Lead plummeted close to $3,000/ton on technical weakness, long liquidation; zinc similarly slipped before recovering; "For the time being, metals seem to be on the defensive, as increasing stocks and concern about weakening demand seem to be trumping just about anything else, including the weaker dollar," said MF Global analyst Ed Meir. "In such an environment, rallies will continue to be prove vulnerable, especially given that we have no macro news of import this week." Copper down $50 to $6,790, lead off $70 to $3,040, zinc down $170 to $2355, aluminum down $41 to $2,509, nickel off $1,050 to $30,200, tin down $600 to $16,750. (BRD) 

0823 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere says Computershare's (CPU.AU) planned acquisition of German corporate actions bank VEM makes a lot of sense from strategic perspective and looks likely to be accretive. Lifts price target 2.7% to A$11.30 on back of deal. "This reflects the likelihood of healthy EPS accretion if it succeeds, offset by the fact that completion is not yet certain and our impression that the target's risk profile is somewhat higher than CPU's," analyst says. Maintains at Buy. Last trade A$10.33. (SVM) 

0824 [Dow Jones] Expected weakness in Asian equities today likely to keep AUD/USD, AUD/JPY on back foot, says National Australia Bank senior currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos. NAB "fair value" range at 0.8860-0.9215, with near-term resistance at 0.9000, then 0.9070. Equities market participants anticipating FOMC minutes for clues on December Fed funds decision. Notes "equities may not like the message from the Fed" with risk appetite likely to remain under pressure, potentially weighing on AUD. Break through 0.8750 would push AUD/USD to 0.8500. Pair last at 0.8837.(SRH) 

0832 [Dow Jones] Asian steel makers voicing concerns over BHP (BHP.AU) takeover of Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) as BHP's CEO Kloppers arrives in Seoul to promote deal. Kloppers spoke to Japanese customers Monday, but buyers remain unconvinced; also met Japan Iron and Steel Federation Chairman Hajime Bada, who still believes deal would promote further dominance of supply from a few large players. After Seoul, Kloppers visits Shanghai Wednesday, Beijing Thursday before returning to Australia for annual meeting next week. (APW) 

0834 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts United Group (UGL.AU) to Neutral from Outperform on recent relative share-price movements; "Since Nov. 7, UGL's share price has fallen 3.6% while the S&P/ASX200 has fallen 2.3%," CS says in client note. "Credit Suisse's current 12-month total projected return for UGL of 10.6% implies a projected excess rate of return relative to the market of -4.1%." Keeps A$22.00 12-month price target; stock last A$20.82. (ABH) 

0835 [Dow Jones] Australia's main opposition Labor Party maintains election-winning lead in latest Newspoll issued today; Labor has 54% support on 2-party preferred basis, after preferences from minor parties, ruling Liberal-National coalition has 46%. Suggests coalition gained little ground from A$9 billion in new spending promises unveiled at campaign launch in Brisbane last week, which dwarfed Labor's A$2.3 billion in launch promises. Still, whoever wins election Nov. 24, election promises will be important for RBA policy, with central bank last week warning public spending a key factor contributing to domestic demand pressures; analysts put total cost of election promises unveiled by both sides during the 6-week campaign at up to A$65 billion for the coalition and over A$50 billion for Labor. (RAP) 

0838 [Dow Jones]Goldman Sachs JBWere trims forecasts for Goodman Fielder (GFF.AU) following yesterday's earnings downgrade. Cuts EPS estimates by 8% in FY08, 3% in FY09, 2% in FY10. Highlights GFF's challenge in price realization; private-label retail prices in many of GFF's key divisions falling - notwithstanding record commodity costs. Maintains Hold, target price A$2.20. Stock last A$1.98. (SVM) 

0843 [Dow Jones] Citi maintains Sell rating on Woodside (WPL.AU) despite announcement of Browse gas deal with Taiwan's CPC. Says preliminary agreement will help underwrite a final investment decision on Browse but doesn't change its view on the stock. Says Woodside could need as much as A$26 billion to fund capex on its LNG projects to 2013/14 and this could test its balance sheet. "LNG is a growth industry and LNG prices have risen strongly in recent times but the massive initial capital costs, compounded by cost inflation, continue to constrain the internal rates of return of offshore LNG projects," Citi says. Says production forecasts remain a concern. Target price set at A$46.20; Woodside last traded at A$48.50. (APW) 

0844 [Dow Jones]Merrill Lynch says Computershare's (CPU.AU) plan to buy German corporate actions bank VEM appears to be a departure from CPU's traditional hunting ground. "However, the key attraction lies in VEM's access to Clearstream - the system used for dividend and other financial distributions in Germany," analyst says. "This provides CPU with a stronger platform for its German operations and further bolsters its already impressive global credentials." But notes price paid is full given soft corporate action outlook. Maintains Neutral; last trade A$10.33. (SVM)


----------



## Sean K (26 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0822 [Dow Jones] Clear result in Australian election puts focus back on the economy, say strategists at nabCapital. Notes clear mandate for Labor; says briefing for new Treasurer Wayne Swan would likely have focused on threat from inflation. Says 2008 budget unlikely to be as "voter friendly" as in the past; Treasury likely briefing Swan fiscal policy needs to pull in inflationary pressure. Clear election result and U.S. Thanksgiving sales initially pushed AUD/USD off lows, but slipping back; now 0.8813 from high 0.8844. (EGC) 

0828 [Dow Jones] Key driver for AUD this week is message from U.S. Fed speakers on chances of another Fed Funds cut, says nabCapital strategist John Kyriakopoulos. Notes worsening risk sentiment on back on volatile credit markets; says any recovery in risk appetite would provide "much welcome relief" to AUD. Says launch of US$4.5 billion in Japanese global investment trusts this week will weigh on JPY, but risks from U.S. housing and credit markets continuing. AUD/USD now 0.8817, from high of 0.8845. (EGC) 

0838 [Dow Jones] Australian Labor Party's victory at weekend election likely to be talk of market this morning, focus could be on Telstra (TLS.AU) given Labor's differing policy on broadband. Prime Minister elect Kevin Rudd has promised to spend around A$5 billion in a national fiber broadband network, which will be subject to an open access regime. Telstra unlikely to be any less vocal in its push for regulations it wants with a Labor government than it was under the Coalition. Coalition government had been calling for tenders to build a privately owned network, but Australian newspaper says panel to consider issue will be immediately disbanded. Labor expects to begin its own tender process soon, which it expects will take six months, although there are some doubts in market over that. (LMF) 

0855 [Dow Jones] Next step for Australia's PM-elect Kevin Rudd, after winning decisive election victory for his center-left Labor party Saturday, is to name cabinet, possibly later this week after party caucus Thursday. Though Rudd has already confirmed Wayne Swan as Treasurer, Julia Gillard as deputy PM and likely Employment Minister, all other jobs are up for grabs. Local media suggest Lindsay Tanner in line for Finance Minister role. Rudd promising to continue conservative economic policies of ousted 11-year-old Liberal-National coalition government, but investors will be looking for any areas of difference as new ministers look to put their own stamp on various portfolios. (RAP) 

0909 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere says electronic gaming machine revenue rose 6.8% in October, according to the Lastest Victorian data. "While this data point is positive, we maintain hold recommendations on both Tattersall's (TTS.AU) and Tabcorp (TAH.AU)," analyst says. "In our view, while value is beginning to emerge for TAH in an uncertain market, it remains a 2-year turnaround story." Adds for TTS, it continues to question whether its premium rating is sustainable over the longer term. (SVM) 

0913 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bullish, with overnight futures up 86 points at 6440.0 after solid bounce on Wall Street. DJIA up 1.4.% at 12980.88, S&P 500 up 1.7%. Retailers surged on hopes of strong post-Thanksgiving retail sales. E*Trade rose 25% on sale hopes. Financials also rose, with Citigroup up 3.2%, and Fannie Mae up 10% after CEO increased stake. AUD/USD up 52 points at 0.8820. Comex gold up US$26.10 at US$824.70. Nymex crude up 89 cents at US$98.18. LME copper up 2.2%, lead up 3.5%, zinc up 2.6%, aluminum near flat, nickel up 1.0%. BHP ADRs at A$41.28 vs A$40.27 locally. Index last 6330.2. (DWR) 

0919 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS raises Dyno Nobel (DXL.AU) price target to A$2.50 from A$2.20 in anticipation of a bid from Incitec Pivot (IPL.AU). UBS expects DXL to update the market on its Moranbah plant within the next two weeks. "This is likely to be a catalyst for action by IPL, which we estimate can afford to pay A$2.50," UBS says in a client note. UBS also raises its Moranbah cost estimate to A$750 million, up from A$680 million, and cuts its EPS forecasts for this FY and next FY by 2%-3%. "The new forecasts still see healthy 11% annual average growth in AUD EPS, and remain highly sensitive to currency and DXL's guidance on cost cutting," UBS says. Keeps Neutral. Last trade A$2.36. (ABH) 

0920 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO upgrades Spotless (SPT.AU) to Hold from Sell given likely increased investor interest in a potential turnaround story. "Recent board-driven change has progressed, with the company reaffirming its cost savings target and committing to an improved financial performance," analyst says. Price target raised to A$4.24 from A$3.75 vs last trade A$4.29. (SVM) 

0925 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD retracing early gains, slipping back as market had taken very short positions, says Westpac strategist Jonathan Cavenagh. AUD/USD earlier picked up on positive U.S Thanksgiving sales, clear result in Australian election. Says AUD/USD has tested resistance for today's session. AUD/USD now 0.8790 from 0.8845 early on. (EGC) 

0925 [Dow Jones] UBS upgrades STW Communications (SGN.AU) to Neutral from Sell on back of recent share price weakness, notes stock has lost 13% since end of July. Keeps 12-month target on stock at A$2.65, shares last at A$2.41. (LMF)


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## Sean K (27 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0743 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD hit hard overnight as weaker Wall Street drives investors away from high-yield currencies; risk appetite dwindling. Continued weakness in USD not helping, says ICAP chief economist Matt Johnson; "FX is once again trading in the 'carry unwind pattern'." AUD/USD now 0.8718 from overnight high 0.8815. (EGC) 

0808 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures down slightly as traders balanced possibility of OPEC output hike next week against forecasts of cold weather; January Nymex down 48 cents at $97.70/bbl, Brent on ICE down 51 cents at $95.25 after hitting record intraday high of $96.65. "There's a lot of OPEC chatter in the market," said Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas Commodity Futures. "I'm not sure it's going to be enough to make that much of a difference." Gold, silver futures higher but pared most overnight gains on profit-taking, options-related activity plus pullback in crude; December gold up $1.80 to $826.50/oz on Comex, up $4.50 to $826.70 on CBOT; December silver up 9.5 cents to $14.83 on Comex, up 11.7 cents to $14.84 on CBOT. "We made new lows on the dollar on Friday and there has been little if any bounce," Future Path Trading's Frank Lesh said. "That continues as an influence in the base metals and the precious metals." January platinum down $11.90 to $1,468.60/oz, March palladium off $2.25 to $364.25. LME lead, zinc rebounded on talk of possible changes to China's export duties; analysts, traders said sentiment likely to remain fragile given ongoing credit concerns; "We're probably going to continue to see this level of choppy trade for the next few months as long as these worries in the credit markets and concerns of a slowing U.S. housing sector remain," said Barclays Capital analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan. Lead up $80 to $3000, zinc up $114 to $2388, copper up $40 to $6750, aluminum up $17 to $2510, nickel down $250 to $28850, tin down $75 to $16600. (BRD) 

0809 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD slides below 0.8700 level, weighed down by weak end on Wall Street as U.S. equities are sold off. Fears surrounding ongoing impact of credit crunch, Goldman Sachs downgrade of HSBC send U.S. stocks lower, dragging down AUD/USD. CBA strategist Richard Grace says AUD/USD should recover some ground in Asian session, sees key support level at 0.8650. Pair now 0.8685 from high 0.8813 overnight. (EGC) 

0838 [Dow Jones] AUD rally of recent days is "over", with the focus on AUD/USD 0.8655 lows of recent weeks, says Suncorp strategist Peter Pontikis. Says both short- and longer-term pressures remain on AUD/USD to return to "better-value levels" of 0.8500 in next 1-2 weeks. AUD/USD now 0.8710. (EGC) 

0858 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse upgrades Macquarie Airports (MAP.AU) to outperform from neutral on the back of recent share price weakness. Analyst notes stock has lost 9.1% since Oct. 18 vs 4.4% fall for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. Keeps 12 month target on stock at A$4.83, MAP last at A$4.22 (LMF) 

0859 [Dow Jones] Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) likely to ease to around A$135 after falling 1.6% to 5,232 pence in London overnight, as its investor briefing, outlining defense strategy to BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) takeover bid, fails to continue momentum that saw it add 7.5% locally yesterday. Rio pours water on prospects of entertaining rival Chinese bid, with CEO Tom Albanese saying while it's being contacted by potential suitors, "we're not necessarily engaging," instead outlining Rio's plans to triple iron ore output, raise ordinary dividends 30% this year and sell off up to US$15 billion in assets to pay down debt. Suggests final dividend of at least A$1.15/share likely in March. (WEL) 

0900 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Australian Labor Party's win in weekend's election will "bring with it one of the most radical changes to the telecommunications industry seen since the era of telegraph," Citi analyst says. "While positive for Australia, the risk to Telstra's dominance across fixed telephony and broadband has increased markedly." Adds near-term earnings risk minimal and any new regime won't impact TLS earnings until FY11 at the earliest, although sentiment risk is likely to increase. Keeps hold rating on TLS with A$5.00 target. Stock last A$4.70. (LMF) 

0911 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bearish, with overnight futures down 116 points at 6374.0. DJIA down 1.8% at 12743.44, S&P 500 down 2.3%. Citigroup said it's looking to cut costs and HSBC said it planned to bail out two of its funds, costing US$45 billion. NY Fed said it planned more repos before year-end, after injecting US$8 billion Wednesday. Citigroup fell 3.2%, Lehman Bros fell 5.6%. Home builders plunged. CBOE VIX up 3.3 points at 28.91. U.S. 10-year bond yield 3.85% vs 4.00%. AUD/USD down 102 points at 0.8706. Comex gold up US$1.80 at US$826.50. Nymex crude down 48 cents at US$97.70. LME copper up 2.2%, lead up 2.7%, zinc up 5.0%, aluminum up 0.7%, nickel up 0.9%. BHP down 1.7% in London, Rio Tinto down 1.6%. BHP ADRs at A$40.76 vs A$42.11 locally. Index last 6471.4. (DWR) 

0913 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere raises earnings forecast for Wesfarmers (WES.AU) coal division, based on a significant upgrade to the broker's coal price assumptions. "While the enhanced coal price outlook is a positive for WES, our target price and recommendation remains unchanged pending the comments at the WES operational briefing day being held (today)," analyst says. "In particular, we will be looking for further visibility regarding the Coles turnaround, along with any developments from the feasibility studies into the possible expansion of coal operations at Bengalla and Curragh." Maintains Hold; price target A$45.68 vs last trade A$45.52. (SVM) 

0924 [Dow Jones] JPMorgan downgrades net profit forecasts for Aristocrat (ALL.AU) by 2.7%, 10.4% and 16.4% in 2007, 2008 and 2009, after a further review of ALL's North America and international markets. "However we retain our overweight recommendation as we believe the stock has been oversold relative to valuation," analyst says. "We continue to believe that the current market dynamics are largely a timing issue which will recover in the medium term leaving ALL well positioned to benefit from the global growth in gaming." Price target A$12.80 vs last trade A$10.41.(SVM)


----------



## Sean K (30 November 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0806 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD settles into 0.8760 top 0.8860 range for now with rising risk appetite putting a floor under pair through the second half of the week. But Westpac's FX strategy team says outlook for pair looks cloudy after Wall Street has just had its best two days in four years. Despite this, pair has been unable to break up to around 0.8900. Bounce in metals prices this week can also be described as less than inspiring. With RBA on the sidelines rallies may be fragile. Westpac expects a move back to 0.8650/0.8700. Now 0.8821. (JEG) 

0839 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) to Neutral from Buy, cuts target to A$42 from A$48.50 after bank agrees to buy U.S. regional lender Great Western for US$798 million. Analyst says acquisition raises a number of concerns, including whether deal is strategically relevant and on price. "NAB has a track record of consistently underperforming overseas, especially in the US. Remember HomeSide?" Says investors now likely to build an offshore acquisition discount into NAB's share price, similar to ANZ (ANZ.AU). "This is likely to be the first of several acquisitions in NAB's expansion strategy," analyst says. "Hedge fund short interests in NAB may rise if the US economy stalls. Unfortunately, this overrides the good work being done in its key market, Australia." NAB last at A$39.08. (LMF) 

0845 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO cuts National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) target to A$44.54 from A$47.17 after bank announces deal to buy Great Western Bank in U.S. for US$798 million. "We believe that in the short term the risks outweigh the rewards for NAB's foray into U.S. agribanking," ABN says. "While the transaction is small, sentiment is likely to cap some of the fundamental upside." Still, keeps Buy rating on stock. NAB last A$39.08. (LMF) 

0846 [Dow Jones] Spot gold lower on NY close after pulling back overnight on stronger dollar, oil softening but stays within recent range. Gold trades below $800/oz; oil at $91.05/bbl, up 43 cents on the day but off intraday high of $95.17. Dollar trades at $1.4740 against euro. The $800-$810/oz area could become ceiling for time being given absence of large influx of investment money, says analyst Jon Nadler at Kitco. Gold to meander around ongoing resistance in $800 area as speculation on another rate cut plays out until the Fed meeting on Dec. 11. Adds several more closes below $800 level could signal lower prices, pointing to initial support at $770. Spot gold is down $2.85 vs NY close at $792.35. (EFB) 

0847 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO upgrades Perpetual (PPT.AU) to Buy from Hold on share price weakness; says although substantial increase in write-downs from Exact Market Cash Fund is disappointing, most of this should flow back into future years' earnings so has little impact on broker's valuation. Has A$79.50 price target; stock last A$67.40. (RBT) 

0857 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200, last at 6444.5, likely to stay in the black after US market consolidates biggest 2 day gain in 5 years overnight by edging higher, DJIA up just 0.2% at 13317.09 but fluctuated either side of flat throughout session, while S&P 500 up 0.1% and Nasdaq up 0.2%. Local SPI futures up 22 points to 6499, however pre-weekend jitters unlikely to see extensive gains, despite strong rise in London for BHP (BHP.AU), up 3.1%, and Rio Tinto (RIO.AU), up 4.4%. Comex gold down US$5 or 0.6% at US$795.30, while oil adds 0.4% to US$91.01/bbl. LME copper up 2.5%, zinc adds 0.8%, aluminum off 0.2%, nickel down 4.1%. (WEL) 

0858 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch says National Australia Bank's (NAB.AU) deal to buy Great Western Bank in the US for US$798 million looks like a good opportunity, but disappointed on the price. "While we are not surprised by NAB's decision to acquire in the US agri market, the price appears full and we are somewhat disappointed NAB expects the acquisition to only be EPS neutral by year three," analyst says. Keeps Neutral rating on bank. (LMF) 

0907 [Dow Jones] Base metals steady after extending gains overnight on positive cue better-than-expected US 3Q GDP reading of +4.9%, equity markets in positive territory; helps to allay short-term concerns over impact on metal demand due to slower U.S. growth. Short-term direction on metals to remain dominated by U.S. economic news, supply side developments such as strike at Grupo Mexico's Cananea copper mine dragging on, says trader. Longer-term fundamental story for copper still appears intact, forward prices still holding up, indicating firm outlook. LME bellwether 3-month copper contract down $10 vs PM kerb at $6,870/ton. (EFB) 

0918 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: U.S. stocks rose for third day, with DJIA notching its best three-straight-day gain in more than four years; market was seeing carry-over strength from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn's "interest-rate friendly comments on Wednesday," said Eric Barden, president of Barden Capital. "But we're still kind of in a holding pattern, with a tug of war between the Fed cutting interest rates to create liquidity and more write-offs by financial companies, which highlight solvency risks. If we can go through a period without more big write-downs, then investors' confidence should return." MGI Pharma leapt 19%; the biopharmaceutical company is evaluating possible strategic alternatives and has hired Lehman Brothers as financial advisor to assist the process. WellCare Health Plans rose 9.7% as the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services renewed a contract with the managed-care service provider's WellCare Prescription Insurance unit. E*Trade Financial dropped 8.7%; hedge fund Citadel Investment Group threw the distressed online broker a $2.55 billion lifeline to stabilize the company, but shares turned around as shareholders recognized the deal carries a high cost in terms of dilution. Shares of Sears were off 11.1%. after the retailer offered disappointing results and said that it doesn't anticipate any near-term improvement. In late trading, shares of Dell Inc. fell 8% after the computer-systems company released 3Q earnings slightly below Wall Street estimates, despite higher-than-expected revenue. Dow closed up 0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Philly Semicons down less than 0.1%. (RSH) 

0922 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO ups GrainCorp (GNC.AU) target to A$13.76 from A$12.73, keeps Buy. "We continue to believe drought years are when investors should buy quality agricultural stocks," ABN says. "When favorable seasonal conditions return, we estimate GNC should be trading more in line with our revised price target." Says value should also be realized from GNC's restructuring program, likely changes to Australia's wheat marketing; "In our view, there is significant unrealized value held in GNC's storage and handling network, which includes nine ports." GNC last A$9.20. (LMF)


----------



## Sean K (6 December 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0756 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD to remain rangebound in day ahead, as stiffening greenback provides some resistance despite rally on Wall Street, says ANZ strategist Tony Morriss. Notes "big moves" on crosses; AUD/GBP higher on weak U.K. housing data, AUD/NZD weaker on RBNZ's hawkish economic outlook. Expects AUD/USD to struggle to hit 0.8750; pair last 0.8699 vs low 0.8666 in New York. (EGC) 

0802 [Dow Jones] Shares in SP Telemedia (SOT.AU) may rise after Sydney Morning Herald reports 46% owner Soul Pattinson (SOL.AU) in talks to sell cellphone company; says SOT's board under pressure to sell after failing to reinvent itself after May sale of TV assets, struggling to gain customers. SingTel's (Z74.SP) Optus unit could be interested, stands to lose most if SOT fades further; Australian telco provides Optus with up to A$100 million a year in revenue from sale of cellphone services using Optus's network. SOT closed yesterday flat at 38.5 cents. (ABH) 

0807 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures fell to fresh 1-month low, shrugging off both OPEC refusal to raise output, big slump in U.S. crude oil stockpiles; traders focussed on growing gasoline, distillate inventories plus potential easing in tensions over Iran's nuclear program, concerns U.S. economic growth may slow; January Nymex down 83 cents to $87.49/bbl, Brent on ICE off $1.04 at $88.49. "The geopolitical landscape has quieted a little, people are concerned about the economy and I think the market has run out of steam for now," said Steve Bellino at MF Global. Gold futures down as bullish economic data supported USD, threw likelihood of further Fed rate cut into question; February gold down $3.90 to $803.70/oz on Comex, down $4.60 to $802.90 on CBOT; but close above $800 may mean gold can "start chipping away at $815, $820," said Sean Bilello of B&C Trading. March silver near steady, down 0.5 cent at $14.46/oz on Comex, down 0.1 cent to $14.473 on CBOT; Nymex January platinum off $4 to $1,468.30, Nymex March palladium up $1.05 to $354.45. LME base metals mostly recovered from losses, buoyed by spillover sentiment from equities, however without more Chinese consumer buying, traders expect metals to drift lower into year end. After few days of relatively sharp selling which brought values close to bottom of trading ranges, "we could see a modest recovery set in, assuming that U.S. macro numbers do not derail things," said Ed Meir of MF Global. Copper down $5 to $6685, lead down $49 to $2835, zinc off $15 to $2410, aluminum down $2 to $2465, nickel up $110 to $25800, tin down $150 to $16450. (BRD) 

0815 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD lacking direction in Asian session, with any gains capped around 0.8720, says RBC strategist Sue Trinh. Moves on the major crosses mean AUD "will struggle to maintain rallies." Focus now on rate moves by Bank of England, U.S. Fed. Pair now 0.8696 from low in New York trading 0.8664. (EGC) 

0829 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere says Mirvac's (MGR.AU) development business, which accounts for about 30% of earnings, would be the attraction for Lend Lease (LLC.AU) in any potential linkup. "We estimate the Mirvac development pipeline to be about A$15.8 billion, split 70/30 between residential and nonresidential development," broker says in client note. With LLC's Delfin unit focused on land subdivision for housing and MGR more focused on the development of high-density apartments, a combination of the two units would make sense, it would also enhance the construction pipeline for LLC's Bovis unit, broker says. "A key risk is that LLC would become a lot more exposed to the New South Wales state residential property market." Keeps LLC at hold, A$19.88 12-month price target. Last trade A$19.74. (ABH) 

0836 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD needs to hold above 0.8650, with any dip below "very negative", say nabCapital strategists. NabCapital notes RBA "blinking" and moderating hawkish outlook has lowered yield support for AUD. Expectations for higher rates have slipped, could prompt a sharp decline in AUD. Says all down to credit markets. Expects AUD/USD support at 0.8695 and resistance 0.8856. Pair now 0.8697. (EGC) 

0837 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere cuts Cola-Coca Amatil (CCL.AU) to Hold from Buy as the stock is now within 2% of broker's A$10.50 price target. Last trade A$10.32. (ABH) 

0838 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere cuts Flight Centre (FLT.AU) to Sell from Hold after shares outperformed S&P/ASX 200 by 37% in past three months and now trading at 29% premium to GSJBW's A$22.65 valuation. "After losing its way in FY05-06, FLT has improved its revenue model (shift to fee for service, tougher negotiating stance with airlines) and tightened up on cost control," GSJBW says. Expects about 5% upside risk to this FY EPS "given robust demand conditions and FLT's high fixed-cost leverage model... FLT also continues to target a solution that eases regulatory restrictions on its gearing levels, freeing up funds for bolt-on acquisitions from next FY," GSJBW says. Keeps A$24.84 12-month price target. Last trade A$29.15. (ABH) 

0850 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse upgrades WA News (WAN.AU) to Neutral from Underperform, notes stock has lost 8.1% since Nov. 21, vs 1.9% gain for benchmark S&P/ASX 200. Keeps A$12.90 12-month target on stock, WAN last traded at A$11.95. (LMF) 

0856 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Lend Lease's (LLC.AU) potential acquisition of Mirvac (MGR.AU) would increase LLC's proportion of Australian earnings, particularly in the medium term, as LLC's UK pipeline comes to fruition and alleviate any potential UK housing and construction business headwinds in the near term, UBS says in client note. Values MGR at A$5.73/share, after applying recent takeover multiples paid for Investa Group and Multiplex, calculates A$6.50-$7.00 price "would not be unfair or unreasonable," UBS says. Keeps Neutral, A$5.92 12-month price target. Last trade A$5.90. (ABH)


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## Sean K (7 December 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0802 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures sprang back as USD weakened, traders had second thoughts about depth of selloff earlier in week; OPEC report forecasting stronger economic growth in China may also have fired up market, traders said; January Nymex up $2.74 at $90.23/bbl, Brent on ICE up $1.69 at $90.18. "Clearly, the market is trying to show a little bit of bounce," said Peter Donovan at Vantage Trading. "Whether it's going to work or not remains to be seen." Gold, silver futures higher as market recovered from early weakness on technical bounce, plus turnabouts in currency, energy markets. Gold market could be choppy going forward as both shorts, longs square positions in final trading month of year, trader said, but for now, all eyes on U.S. November payrolls due 1330 GMT, plus USD response. February gold up $3.40 to $807.10/oz on Comex, up $3.80 to $807.10 on CBOT; March silver up 16.5 cents to $14.625 on Comex, up 16.2 cents to $14.627 on CBOT; January platinum up $1.90 to $1,470.20, March palladium down $2.75 to $351.70. LME lead tumbled more than 8%, further losses expected, but U.S. payrolls should determine near-term direction; steady tone in copper stopped bearish sentiment taking hold in rest of complex; copper up $30 at $6725, lead down $145 at $2690, zinc down $16 at $2390, aluminum down $16 at $2448, nickel up $200 at $26000, tin up $150 at $16600. (BRD) 

0816 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD sharply higher as U.S. plan to freeze mortgage rates for 5 years lifts risk appetite; John Kyriakopoulos, strategist at nabCapital, says pair around 1 U.S. cent higher, but approach of U.S. payrolls data could cap rally at around 0.8810-20; key support at 0.8650. nabCapital's risk index now at 1-month high, Kyriakopoulos notes Wall Street's solid response to U.S. President Bush's mortgage plan. AUD/USD last 0.8788. (JEG) 

0853 [Dow Jones] Australia's economy is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2008, OECD says in report. It forecast in May GDP of 3.3%. Strong growth likely to see rate hiked from 6.75% to contain inflation within 2%-3% band. Expects CPI to rise to 3.2% in 2008. Unemployment is forecast to remain near current 33-year lows in 2008, averaging 4.4%, but slower growth will increase the ranks of the jobless to 4.8% by 2009. Outlook suggests new Labor government won't have much of an economic honeymoon and will confront rising rates and inflation. (JEG) 

0900 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch initiates Centrebet (CIL.AU) coverage with a Buy recommendation, A$2.25 price target. "In our view double digit earnings growth with a 5.8% dividend yield is attractive," ML says in client note. "We are forecasting adjusted earnings growth of 11%, 12% and 12%" this FY, next FY and FY10, ML says. "These earnings forecasts don't factor in potential growth options for CIL including the launch of CIL product on affiliate websites, the German harness racing initiative (Taberliga) or growth in market size post the initiation of mobile phone betting." Last trade A$1.85. (ABH) 

0904 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Sims (SGM.AU) acquisition of an Indian electronics recycler is "strategic move to set up a platform in what is likely to become a substantial growth market for electronics recycling," UBS says in client note. "It is consistent with SGM's proven e-recycling strategy of growth via bolt-on acquisition, and is likely to ensure SGM has an advanced position in the Indian e-recycling market." Keeps Sell, A$24.65 price target. Last trade A$26.38. (ABH) 

0920 [Dow Jones] Plans by NSW government to cut maximum slot machine number by about 5% will have little effect on industry or Sydney-based slot maker Aristocrat (ALL.AU) because the actual number of slots operating in NSW is fewer than the current cap. Sydney Morning Herald reported NSW government will announce plans today to lower ceiling to 99,000 slots from 104,000. Fewer than 99,000 slots currently operating in NSW, but it will mean the gambling industry won't have the capacity to increase machine numbers, the newspaper says. ALL last trade A$11.49. (ABH) 

0918 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: U.S. stocks extended gains for a second day after the White House offered its plan to curb home foreclosures, bolstering financial shares battered for months by the subprime mortgage crisis and related credit crunch. "The main catalyst today was the government providing certain relief for homeowners in the subprime market," said John Twomey, head of trading at Merriman Curhan Ford. "This should be a plus for consumer spending and help avoid costly foreclosures and more inventory on the market." Toll Brothers rose 13% despite the home builder posting its first quarterly loss as a public company; Toll, like other housing stocks, was caught up in optimism over the government's mortgage plan. Retailers delivered November same-store-sales results that were mixed, with Nordstrom gaining 4.9% and Gap up 5.2%; Target dropped 7.6% after saying it expects December sales to be "well short" of its prior view. Rambus rose 7.4% as the memory-technology concern said it was notified by the Securities and Exchange Commission that it had ended its formal investigation into the company's past stock options practices and recommended no action be taken. Tribune rose 7.8%; closing in on its $8.2 billion deal to go private, the media company plans to reduce the amount of debt it will borrow for the transaction by up to $500 million. Dow up 1.3%, Nasdaq up 1.6%, Philly Semicons up 1.7%. (RSH) 

0921 [Dow Jones] S&P has announced December quarterly rebalancing of S&P/ASX indexes effective Dec. 21. No surprises according to traders and no market impact expected. Riversdale Mining (RIV.AU) will be added to top 200, while Wesfarmers PPS (WESN.AU) will be cut along with API (API.AU) and Energy Developments (ENE.AU). (DWR) 

0922 [kennas] Booked flights and accommodation for his 'Christmas in Cartagena' holiday in Columbia today. Whooohooo!! 

0933 [Dow Jones] Toronto-listed First Quantum Minerals (FM.T) says overnight it now owns 17.27% in Equinox Minerals (EQN.AU) after adding 7.3% Dec. 5; says might add to stake; Equinox shares rose 20% yesterday on speculation Swiss miner Xstrata (XTA.LN) will acquire its advanced Lumwana copper project; First Quantum's Kansanshi copper-gold mine is 65 kilometers west of Lumwana. Equinox expects to commission 170,000-ton Lumwana mine by June 2008, as sector struggles to bring sizable new mines on stream. (EFB)


----------



## Sean K (19 December 2007)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0749 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD dips overnight, giving up gains after hawkish RBA minutes, but set to fall further heading into Christmas, says Suncorp strategist Peter Pontikis. Notes thin volume, tips support for pair around 0.8550, likely to hit 0.8500 at Christmas; says pair risks falling below 0.8500 if breaks key 0.8550 support. Expects 0.8555-0.8650 range today; last 0.8605 vs New York low 0.8556. (EGC) 

0823 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD set for 1-cent range in Asian session, following trend of past week, nabCapital strategist John Kyriakopoulos says; notes little in way of data so it's "hard to know what it will trade off." Expects big intraday moves on thin liquidity, gappy trading. AUD/USD to trade in 0.8550-0.8620 range, pair last 0.8607 vs overnight low 0.8557. (EGC) 

0828 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Strong share price rises among coal stocks over last month ahead of contract negotiation period has led UBS to downgrade Centennial (CEY.AU) Coal & Allied (CNA.AU) and Gloucester Coal (GCL.AU) to Neutral from Buy. However broker says global production growth is unable to keep pace with demand, particularly from China and India, so tight conditions expected to continue; coal stocks still look cheap on FY10 PE multiples, while key risk to neutral call is higher-than-forecast contract prices. (WEL) 

0830 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: Crude futures at 1-week low, closing slightly down in thin, volatile trade as Turkish troop withdrawal from northern Iraq, continued concern over U.S. economy weighed. January Nymex down 14 cents at $90.49/bbl, February, which is front-month contract today, off 97 cents at $90.08, Brent on ICE down $1.17 at $90.12. "I get the feeling we're going to stay in a range between $87 and $94 until the end of the year," said Tom Bentz at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures. Precious metals futures up; platinum hit fresh record highs on supply tightness, gold gained on higher crude, short covering before profit-taking pared gains. Nymex January platinum up $11.70 at $1526.40; analysts said metal supported by expectations of further supply disruptions in already tight market, plus aggressive borrowing by banks, industrial users. February gold up $8.10 to $807.40/oz on Comex, up $8.30 to $807.50 on CBOT; March silver up 18.5 cents to $14.165 on Comex, up 20.4 cents to $14.181 on CBOT; Nymex March palladium up $1.60 to $362.95. Better-than-expected U.S. November housing starts fueled short-covering rally on LME but gains likely short-lived; signs U.S. economy may not be sinking into recession would buttress metals demand going forward but also help USD regain footing, keeping base metals under pressure, said Standard Chartered analyst Daniel Smith. Copper unchanged at $6380, lead up $25 at $2445, zinc up $19 at $2318, aluminum up $3 at $2411, nickel up $250 at $25900, tin down $50 at $16000. (BRD) 

0855 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Allco Finance (AFG.AU) cut to Neutral from Buy by UBS, with 12-month target price lowered to A$6.00 from A$9.00 on view that Centro Properties' (CNP.AU) refinancing difficulties has negative market sentiment implications for companies like AFG with its "complex structures, coinvestments and related party transactions." Cites as example AFG managed vehicle Allco Hybrid Investment Trust (AHI.AU) issuing non-recourse hybrids (AHUG.AU) and (AHUGA.AU) to fund purchase of preference shares in unlisted Allco Principal Trust and Alleasing Trust. Says with APT's primary asset being 45.8 million AFG units that have fallen 25% in 4 days to A$5.88, "a simple mark to market on AFG brings into question APT's net tangible assets, while Alleasing Trust was already negative NTA at 30 June 2007." (WEL) 

0904 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse upgrades Wattyl (WYL.AU) to Neutral from Underperform, but cuts target to A$2.55 from A$2.70; says still has number of concerns, including continued weak demand environment, subdued pricing growth, rising raw material costs; "For us, underlying market conditions need to improve significantly before WYL can realize a further earnings step change." WYL last A$2.43. (LMF) 

0905 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse raises BlueScope (BSL.AU) recommendation to Outperform from Neutral to reflect recent relative share price movements. "Since Nov. 20, BSL's share price has fallen 10.6% while the S&P/ASX200 has fallen 2.9%," CS says in client note. "Credit Suisse's current 12-month total projected return for BSL of 25.5% implies a projected excess rate of return relative to the market of 6.1%." Keeps A$10.50 price target; stock last A$8.90. (ABH) 

0910 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL:Credit Suisse upgrades Lihir Gold (LGL.AU) to outperform from underperform on recent share price movement. Since Nov. 27 Lihir shares have fallen 22.2% while the Australian market has dipped 3%. Lihir last traded at A$3.18. (APW) 

0911 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Australian Infrastructure Fund (AIX.AU) upgraded to Buy by Merrill Lynch after 8.3% fall to A$2.86 in last three days puts it on "much more attractive multiples" relative to MAP (MAP.AU). Says operational performance at Perth, Gold Coast and Melbourne airports remains strong, and argues AIX is "very conservatively geared" at 3.3 times interest coverage ratio, with "very limited refinance exposure in the short term" with only A$540 million at Melbourne Airport maturing over next 12 months. (WEL) 

0912 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citi says while ANZ (ANZ.AU) boss Mike Smith has emphasized he expects organic growth to be key driver of targeted strong growth in Asia, group unlikely to hit "aspirational" targets without significant M&A. ANZ said yesterday it wants to double profit over next 5 years, with 20% of earnings to come out of Asia; "By our rough estimates, this will require up to A$10 billion in acquisitions over the period." Says while only time will tell if company will hit longer-term targets, ANZ well-placed in short term to benefit from Basel II, as well as turnaround in institutional arm. Keeps Buy rating on stock with A$31.00 target, ANZ last A$27.24. (LMF)


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

Well, it's not pre-open, but the usual tidbits of info to raise the attention and see what the brokers are saying.



DJ MARKET TALK: Australian Equities Roundup24/01/2008 10:21AM AEST  

0836 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse upgrades AXA Asia Pacific (AXA.AU) to Neutral from Underperform based on recent share price weakness. Analyst notes stock has shed 19.3% since Jan. 8, vs 11.7% drop for benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. Keeps A$7.50 12 month target on stock, AXA last at A$5.61. (LMF) 

0843 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch cuts Oxiana (OXR.AU) earnings on 4Q production results and higher interest payments. Says 4Q result was fair but production from Golden Grove was disappointing. Cuts 2007 net profit forecast 12% on lower production and higher costs. Also cuts 2008 by 4% for 2008 and 6% for 2009 on higher interest payments. With no significant production growth expected until 2009, Merrill Lynch says commodity prices continue to be the major driver for Oxiana, which last traded at A$2.90. (APW) 

0851 [Dow Jones] NZ shares rally early, aided by strong Wall Street, now +1.3% at 3662.76 on low volume, set to remain strong today. ABN AMRO Craigs adviser Alexandra Dalzell says "selective buying, especially on blue chips" supporting market. Adds market likely to remain strong through the day, with major stocks getting sentiment boost after Fed's surprise rate cut. Fisher & Paykel Appliances (FPA.NZ) +3.2% at NZ$2.95. Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) +2.36% at NZ$2.62, SkyCity (SKC.NZ) +0.5% at NZ$4.15, while Telecom (TEL.NZ) +1.5% at NZ$4.05. Dalzell also says low liquidity may exaggerate volatile trade across market. (TIF) 

0926 [Dow Jones] COMMODITY SUMMARY: Base metals slide back into negative territory in step with lower equity markets across Europe, late surge in U.S. stocks on oversold readings led by banks too late to boost metals prices. "The focus is on equities," said BaseMetals analyst Will Adams. "Equities are the barometer at the moment." FTSE down 2.3%, other European bourses also sharply lower. Metals' fundamentals still stack up on the back of tight supplies, but much will depend on investor confidence, says Adams. LME 3-month copper falls $150 overnight to close at $6,870/ton at PM kerb, last trades at $8,865, down $5 vs Wednesday PM kerb. LME aluminum at $2,403, down $11, lead at $2,510, up $5, tin at $16,400, down $150, zinc at $2,200, down $10. Spot gold higher, trades at $890.55/oz, up $5.75 vs NY close, late surge in equities offers relief from margin-call related selling in gold, above resistance at $890. Gold should benefit from wider financial turmoil but for now dogged by margin requirements elsewhere. Crude oil futures slump to 3-month low on views of cooling oil demand growth. Nymex March contract down $1.30 at $87.91/bbl on 6.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. (EFB) 

0928 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS raises Ramsay Health Care (RHC.AU) to Buy from Neutral, cuts price target to A$12.49 from A$13.15. "Market multiple downgrade to price target outstripped by magnitude of fall in share price," UBS says in client note. RHC has a large nominal amount of debt maturing during this FY but it has dealt with the issue, UBS says. Last trade A$10.11. (ABH) 

0931 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS raises Sonic Healthcare (SHL.AU) to Buy from Neutral, cuts price target to A$16.59 from A$16.94. "Strong Australian and U.S. contribution expected; FX risk to EBIT, but low FX risk to EPS; debt facility allows ongoing offshore acquisitions. SHL does not have a formal foreign exchange hedge policy; but has natural hedges in place. The impact in USD is largely limited to translation - SHL repatriates only limited foreign profits to Australia - accordingly currency fluctuations do not have a material cash impact," broker says in client note. Last trade A$15.05. (ABH) 

0933 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS lowers target price for Oxiana (OXR.AU) to A$4.15 from A$4.80 after a mixed 4Q production report. Says 4Q figures slightly below expectations; lowers earnings by 13% in 2007. UBS says Oxiana will see strong earnings growth when Prominent Hill comes on line late 2008. Maintains buy rating. Shares last A$2.90. (APW) 

0936 [Dow Jones] Mirvac (MGR.AU) may rise on news of its strategic partnership with Dubai-based developer Nakheel (NAK.YY) through a A$300 million placement. The capital raised will cut Mirvac's debt gearing to 30% from 35% at Dec. 31, with only A$138 million of debt maturing in the next 12 months, MGR says. MGR and NAK have had talks to identify opportunities, including participation with Leighton's (LEI.AU) bid for Sydney's Barangaroo, or East Darling Harbour, project, the company says. MGR also reaffirmed its existing earnings and distribution guidance for the year ending June 30. Last trade A$4.84. (ABH) 

0938 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS trims its forecast for Billabong's (BBG.AU) U.S. sales in 2H08 and FY09 to 5% growth from 15%, in constant currency terms. UBS economists now expecting U.S. recession in 2008 albeit milder than the average of previous recessions given cuts to interest rates and taxes. Maintains Buy. "The share price already incorporates lower expectations for earnings from the Americas, in our view," analyst says. Price target cut to A$16.35 from A$18.80 vs last trade A$11.55.(SVM) 

0939 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO upgrades Austbrokers (AUB.AU) to Buy from Hold on the back of recent share price weakness, keeps target at A$4.58. "AUB represents an excellent defensive play within the small-cap diversified financials sector during the current equity market volatility," analyst says. "AUB earns the majority of its earnings through general insurance broking, with less than 1% of revenue exposed to equity markets." AUB last at A$3.97. (LMF)


----------



## MR. (24 January 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

Now nobody panick!....................


----------



## MR. (25 January 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



MR. said:


> Now nobody panick!....................




So everyone panicks............ 8% up in 2 days...


----------



## Sean K (12 February 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

DJ MARKET TALK: Australian Equities Roundup12/02/2008 09:04AM AEST  

0807 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD set to consolidate post-RBA gains in Asia today, unlikely to climb much higher as further hikes now priced in, bigger picture remains global risk appetite, says Macquarie Group strategist Joanne Masters. Notes AUD/USD gains overnight capped by further negative credit news, with little data to provide direction. Says key is strength of JPY, and whether investors pour into it after Tokyo holiday yesterday. Expects AUD/USD selling at 0.9060, buying at 0.9010. Pair now 0.9037. (EGC) 

0812 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD gains overnight capped on another round of negative credit headlines, and direction in Asia session will be steered by equities performance, says Bank of New Zealand strategist Danica Hampton. Notes credit news means equities likely softer, leaving AUD/USD trading in tight range; AUD/USD selling expected at 0.9050, buying at 0.8950. Pair now 0.9047. (EGC) 

0815 [Dow Jones] UBS says despite forecasts of a slowdown in consumer spending, it still expects David Jones (DJS.AU) to grow, as it has in the past, in a slower sales environment. "Key drivers will be 'high-value' store refurbishments, new store roll-out, the release of the general purpose credit card, further cost-out plans and a gross margin enhancement plan driven by more favorable terms with suppliers," analyst says. Maintains at Buy; price target A$5.00 vs last trade A$4.00. (SVM) 

0839 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO ups Amcor (AMC.AU) to hold from sell. AMC growth remains under threat from cost pressures, ABN says in client note. Forecasts AMC will report 1H net profit of A$175 million, down 5% from a year ago. Cuts this FY EPS forecast by 1.8% to 45 cents to reflect ongoing raw material cost pressure compressing 2H margins and slower growth in its US Sunclipse unit, adverse exchange rates and the disposal of European PET and the Australian steel can units. Raises next FY and FY10 estimates by 4.1% to 50.7 cents and by 5% to 55.1 cents to reflect A$350 million share buyback, which ends 2H. Keeps A$6.90 target. Last trade A$6.60. (ABH) 

0840 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere raises FY forecast for Ansell (ANN.AU) to US EPS of 61.4 cents vs management's upgraded guidance of 58-62 cents. "While we are very comfortable in underlying operations (particularly FY08 guidance where we have moved to the top end of the range), the broader macro uncertainty into FY09, and a lack of compelling valuation support (our A$12.79 price target implies a total return of 9.7%) prevent us from adopting a more positive view," analyst says. Maintains Hold. Last trade A$11.90.(SVM) 

0842 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS tips Boral (BLD.AU) will post 1H profit of A$143 million, EBIT of A$248 million and interim dividend of 17 cents. UBS expects strong results for Australian construction materials (with EBIT up 11% from a year ago) and quarry end use (with EBIT being pushed forward into the first half), housing products to be flat from last FY 1H and the US to be down significantly, with EBIT down 75% from FY07, it says in client note. "We expect the US to continue to weaken in the second half. We continue to believe that Hanson's US brick business and Carter Holt Harvey's timber business still represent potential investment opportunities for Boral." Keeps Buy. A$9.00 target. Last trade A$5.59. (ABH) 

0846 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere downgrades targets for Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index, "in light of the RBA's more hawkish stance." Cuts end-June target to 6,100 points from 6,500, and trims end-December target to 6,350 from 6,800. Also cuts 2009 expectations, expects benchmark index to be at 6,400 points by end June, 2009, and 6,600 by end Dec. 2009. "The key risk to these forecasts remains the earnings outlook in light of the more hawkish stance the RBA has adopted," analyst says. "We continue to recommend a defensive bias in portfolios with our preferred sectors being: consumer staples, telecoms, healthcare, utilities," analyst says. Benchmark index last at 5,537.6 points. (LMF) 

0848 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch forecasts Leighton (LEI.AU) to report 1H net profit of A$253 million, up 33% from a year earlier, "implying accelerating growth in 2Q08" and an interim dividend of 60 cents. "Key drivers of the result will be higher sales and margins partially offset by one-off costs associated with the A$870 million acquisition of 45% of Al Habtoor Engineering," ML says in client note. "LEI could well raise its FY guidance at the interim result, as it did in the previous two years." Keeps forecast of 44% earnings growth versus LEI's guidance of more than 30%. Keeps Buy, A$71 target. Last trade A$49.45. (ABH) 

0850 [Dow Jones] JB Hi-Fi (JBH.AU) forecasts FY net profit to rise as much as 49% to A$57 million-A$60 million vs analysts consensus average of A$57 million. Forecasts provides room for upgrades, but some analysts may remain cautious given expectations for further interest rate rises to damp consumer spending. JBH's 1H net profit up 60% at A$41.9 million, exceeding JPMorgan's expectations of A$38.8 million and Credit Suisse at A$39.2 million. "Sales in January and February to date have continued the strong momentum of the first half of the year," CEO Richard Uechtritz says. Last trade A$12.64 - well shy of record high A$17.00 hit in December. (SVM) 

0854 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Several broker upgrades this morning could help support United Group (UGL.AU) shares. Citi upgrades UGL to Hold from Sell on back of "severe" recent share price underperformance, although cuts target to A$12 from A$14.55 after weaker-than-expected 1H result. Analyst cuts EPS forecasts by 7% for FY08 and 3% for both FY09 and FY10. Still, says UGL's valuation now reflects lower growth assumptions. UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral, with revised A$15.50 12-month price target, down from A$17.00 previously, also points to near 50% slump in UGL share price in last 10 weeks. ABN AMRO also sees value, upgrades UGL to Buy from Hold, but slashes target to A$13.20 from A$21.05. "An oversold share price, a 50%+ order book upgrade and a strong start for the major UNICCO property services acquisition have prompted us to upgrade our call to Buy," analyst says. UGL last at A$10.89. (LMF)


----------



## ithatheekret (12 February 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

Crikey Kennas , what in the mystic pizza are you doing in Darfur ?


----------



## Sean K (12 February 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



ithatheekret said:


> Crikey Kennas , what in the mystic pizza are you doing in Darfur ?



LOL. Didn't go. Should have. Although, I wouldn't have met my wife in Honduras....


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## ithatheekret (12 February 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



kennas said:


> LOL. Didn't go. Should have. Although, I wouldn't have met my wife in Honduras....




Should have       ..........   Good idea meeting your wife .

Strewth mate I assumed the only high speed traffic over there were bullets , nah stay with wife and avoid volcanoes , muggers and earthquakes . Much easier to get insurance that way ...............


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## Sean K (15 February 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0713 [Dow Jones] Auckland City Council appears to have snubbed Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's partial takeover plan for Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ); NZ Herald newspaper says in unsourced report council, which has 12.8% stake in AIA, confirmed it won't sell its shares to CPP; while news won't come as big surprise, such a move raises hurdle for CPP as it aims to get 40% of airport company. CPP offer closes March 13; AIA shares, which closed NZ$2.95 yesterday, could come under some pressure though downside may be limited as investors have already reduced M&A premium built into stock. (TIF) 

0828 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Lion Nathan (LNN.AU) to Neutral from Buy, says 1Q trading update reassured, but valuation is full. Notes update implied a 1.5% upgrade to underlying earnings. "LNN remains a low risk, domestic defensive with a robust balance sheet and therefore favored in current market conditions," analyst says. However, since early November the stock has outperformed the All Ords by 22% and now trades at a 15% PE premium to market-based brokers' FY08 forecasts. Price target A$10.06 vs last trade A$9.40.(SVM) 

0840 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch downgrades its net profit estimates for Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AU) for 2008-10, by 12%, 9% and 5% respectively. Expects Aristocrat's "other international" division will struggle in 2007 with less casino openings anticipated in Macau. Now sees between 800 and 1200 slots will be added to Macau in 2008 vs around 8,000 in 2007. Also says U.S. will struggle in 1H08, with video replacement cycle to remain soft. Maintains Neutral. Last trade A$9.43. (SVM) 

0841 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS cuts Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) target to A$47.00 from A$60, keeps Neutral rating after group's disappointing 1H result earlier this week; says bank is its least preferred in sector. Says group's bad and doubtful debts a concern, notes company didn't provide much clarity on its position. Says CBA's earnings outlook particularly sensitive to single name risks, such as Centro (CNP.AU) and Allco Finance (AFG.AU). CBA closed Thursday at A$47.05. (LMF) 

0842 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: *Citi raises Leighton (LEI.AU) recommendation to Buy from Hold and target price to A$57.40 from A$49.30 *after LEI posted 1H core net profit of A$237 million, or 4% ahead of Citi's forecast and upgraded full-year guidance to "at least 30%" from previous "30%". "While this was viewed as falling "short" of market expectations of 35% growth, the long-term outlook commentary remains bullish across all segments," Citi says in a client note. "We are confident LEI is well-positioned to weather tightening credit markets and the impact of a potential US recession." Also boosts EPS forecasts for this and next FY by 4.7% to A$2.19 and by 7.9% A$2.60 to reflect increased confidence in the outlook for LEI's key markets. Last trade A$49.00. (ABH) 

0843 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: *ABN AMRO cuts Leighton (LEI.AU) to Hold from Buy and target to A$45.00 from A$51.10 *after Leighton posted 1H earnings of A$250.3 million, below ABN's forecast of A$255 million. "We saw no major issues as to quality, and group EBIT margins showed significant year-on-year improvement," ABN says. "The result also reflected a four-month contribution from the Al Habtoor joint venture, which looks to be tracking ahead of acquisition budget estimates. Whilst we remain comfortable that the size, composition and diversity of the Leighton works portfolio will mitigate some business risk, our longstanding Buy thesis has been premised on consensus expectations lagging the earnings trajectory of the company and significant upgrade surprise." Latest trade A$49.00. (ABH) 

0905 [kennas] STOCK CALL: kennas initiates coverage on Leighton (LEI) with a 'could be a buy, hold, or sell,' depending on the weather. Recommends punters get a third opinion before committing their Super. 

0906 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere says ASX (ASX.AU) 1H result just ahead of consensus, no major surprises. Analysts say the "problem" is that its PE ratio is still sitting at around 20-21X. "This multiple is not by any means unreasonable from a longer term perspective," analyst says. "But, in the near term, it is likely to leave the stock vulnerable to emerging pressures (real and perceived)." Maintains at Hold. Adds the opportunity to chip away at the stock comes in the weeks when the broader market "falls out of bed" - because most traders significantly over-estimate its EPS leverage to a falling market and the stock tends to be over-sold. Price target A$48.00 vs last trade A$45.13.(SVM) 

0907 [Dow Jones] WA News (WAN.AU) shares likely to come under pressure after weaker-than-expected 1H result and lower-than-anticipated interim dividend. Company says net profit fell 21% to A$44.3 million, result impacted by accelerated depreciation of Herdsman printing press equipment. Normalized profit comes in at A$59.7 million, below A$64.3 million forecast by JPMorgan analysts. Dividend of 21 cents a share also well below JPMorgan and ABN AMRO's expectation for 31 cents and UBS's 30 cent prediction. Lack of specific FY guidance could also disappoint. Company has now finished writedown of presses, which could be good news. WAN shares last traded at A$11.20. (LMF) 

0910 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS lowers its target price for Paladin Energy (PDN.AU) to A$7.50 from A$9.05 after trimming earnings forecasts. Says earnings cut on a later start date for the Kayelekera project, higher costs and lower uranium price forecasts. Cuts FY08 profit forecast by 182%, FY09 by 67% and FY10 by 13%; 1H loss of US$25.8 million was worse than UBS' forecast for a loss of US$2 million. Maintains Buy rating. Paladin last traded at A$6.00. (APW) 

0913 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO says ASX (ASX.AU) has delivered a strong 1H result, but cyclical growth likely to hamper growth. "Despite the high levels of volumes that have gone through the market so far in FY08, we remain reasonably cautious given the uncertain economic outlook internationally, which is weighing on the domestic market, which in turn weighs on the dollar value of turnover," analyst says. "Overall we remain relatively cautious, with a Hold recommendation and the lowered price target of A$48.15 from A$53.90." Last trade A$45.13. (SVM)


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## TheAbyss (15 February 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

is this a test to see if we are paying attention Kennas?

0905 [kennas] STOCK CALL: kennas initiates coverage on Leighton (LEI) with a 'could be a buy, hold, or sell,' depending on the weather. Recommends punters get a third opinion before committing their Super.


----------



## Sean K (15 February 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*



TheAbyss said:


> is this a test to see if we are paying attention Kennas?
> 
> 0905 [kennas] STOCK CALL: kennas initiates coverage on Leighton (LEI) with a 'could be a buy, hold, or sell,' depending on the weather. Recommends punters get a third opinion before committing their Super.



 I thought it was amuzing that Citi and ABN were adjusting their recommendations in the opposite direction to each other.


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## Sean K (27 March 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0745 [Dow Jones] NZ shares to "have a day in the red," pulled down by poor sentiment offshore and local recession worries, says Forsyth Barr institutional broker David Price. Expects volumes to remain low as local players cautious amid rising fuel prices, high interest rates and offshore investors to continue to be focused on their home markets. Fletcher Building (FBU.NZ) and Fisher & Paykel Appliances (FPA.NZ) could give back some of yesterday's gains. The NZX-50 Index closed 0.1% down at 3,425.44 yesterday.(RSH) 

0912 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO raises SP AusNet (SPN.AU) to Buy from Hold after SPN guidance upgrade. "While the new numbers appear only modestly ahead of the market, we continue to like the Alinta-related optionality that SPN offers and the stock remains our top pure regulated pick." Has A$1.38/share target price, vs stock last A$1.25. But adds on a 12-month view, sees significantly more absolute upside in "the more bombed out stories" like Babcock & Brown Power (BBP.AU), APA Group (APA.AU), Babcock & Brown Infrastructure (BBI.AU). (RBT) 

1226 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mostly bearish, with SPI futures down 38 points at 5419.0 after moderate falls on Wall Street. Oracle down 8.6% after hours on weaker-than-expected sales. DJIA down 0.9% at 12422.86, S&P 500 down 0.9%, Nasdaq down 0.7%. February durable goods fell 1.7% vs 0.8% consensus. February new home sales fell 1.8% to 590,000. Financials hurt by Paulson's comment that U.S. Govt should increase investment bank regulation, plus Oppenheimer's move to cut 1Q profit forecasts for major U.S. banks by average 84%. Citigroup fell 5.9%, JPMorgan fell 4.2%, Bank of America fell 2.8%. WSJ report of likely collapse of US$19.5 billion private equity buyout of Clear Channel saw that stock down 17.3%. U.S. 10-year bond yield down 2 bps at 3.51%. AUD/USD up 26 points at 0.9200. Nymex crude up US$4.68 at US$105.90 on lower-than-expected U.S. inventory. LME copper up 1.3%, zinc down 0.2%, aluminum up 1.3%, nickel up 0.9%. BHP (BHP.AU) ADR's at A$35.41. Index last 5381.4. (DWR) 

0933 [Dow Jones] UBS maintains David Jones (DJS.AU) at Buy after 1H result. Analyst says on a 12-month view, any share price weakness over the coming months is a buying opportunity. "Specific cost out projects, gross margins largely underwritten by suppliers and a floor under credit card growth provides a relatively high degree of earnings visibility," analyst says. "We feel the stock can trade at a premium to the market despite the slowing retail environment." Price target A$5.00 vs last trade A$3.71. (SVM) 

0934 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks fell as heightened concerns over potential write-downs in financial sector, rising oil prices hurt; consumer stocks lost ground on news Feb new-home sales at lowest mark in 13 years, orders for durable goods unexpectedly dropped 1.7% in Feb. "These data points are rear view mirror, as we go through a grinding period, I'm less concerned about data being an issue and more focused on what the earnings numbers and guidance look like out of the financials," said Scott Billeadeau, portfolio manager for Fifth Third Asset Management. JP Morgan fell 4.2%, Citigroup down 5.9% after an Oppenheimer analyst cut 1Q earnings estimates on U.S. banks by an average 84%. Deutsche Bank lost 1.1% on bearish FY comments. Clear Channel ended down 17.3% on reports company's buyout by private-equity firms Bain Capital, Thomas H. Lee Partners may collapse. Airline stocks mostly fell with Continental down 8.9%, American Airlines parent AMR declined 11% after canceling 300 flights to re-inspect bundled wires on MD-80 aircraft. Dow down 0.9%, Nasdaq down 0.7%, Philly semicons down 1.4%. (RSH) 

0940 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse upgrades CSR (CSR.AU) to Neutral from Underperform, raises target to A3.60 from A$3.10. "CSR should perform relatively well versus its building peers in CY08," analyst says. "This is largely due to it having the least building exposure, particularly in the form of US housing." Cuts FY08 and FY09 earnings forecasts by around 2%, but raises FY10-FY12 estimates by around 6%. Says while another tough year is likely, in the longer term, sugar and aluminum commodity markets are looking more favorable. CSR last at A$3.34. (LMF) 

0947 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere keeps David Jones (DJS.AU) at hold despite strong 1H. "In the short term, we expect the news flow regarding the consumer spending cycle to be poor (possible further interest rate rise, slowing ABS retail sales etc)," analyst says. "This is likely to weigh on DJS share price." Price target A$4.29 vs last trade A$3.71. (SVM) 

0950 [Dow Jones] COMMODITY SUMMARY: Metal prices rally overnight, gold punching above resistance tracking euro strength against the U.S. dollar, market participants say further currency weakness could see gold go higher in the coming sessions. But the same people warn precious metals in the short term are still vulnerable to further profit-taking as book squaring is seen before month, quarter end. Near-term upside potential is returning to the market, says Standard Bank analyst Manqoba Madinane; signals that credit market crunch persists, to support near-term investment demand for precious metals. Spot gold unchanged vs NY close at $954.00/oz, silver at $18,44, up 3 cents, platinum at $1,997.50, down $2.50, palladium at $452.50, down $2.50. LME metals continue rebound, LME copper inventory falls, higher energy prices, lower USD support market. Gains come despite bearish U.S. data for durable goods, post fall. But traders said the weak U.S. dollar was attracting fund investors back. "With respect to the short term outlook in metals, we still are not sure that last week's commodity correction has fully run its course despite the recent blips higher," says MF Global analyst Edward Meir. LME three-month copper last at $8,225/ton, up $25 vs PM kerb after $105 rally overnight, aluminum at $2,950, up $6, lead at $2,784, down $15, zinc at $2,345, up $20, nickel at $29,800, up $25, tin at $20,350, up $50. Nymex crude futures rally $4.68 to $105.90/bbl. (EFB) 

1000 [kennas] Unfortunately, has to fly to the Galapagos Islands this weekend and go on a 4 day cruise around the islands on a luxury boat, for free. Aaaaah, the hassles of been married to the travel industry. 

1001 [Dow Jones] Spot gold steady, rally overnight on increased risk aversion, "sobering" speech by Treasury's Paulson offering no solution to housing, credit crisis, says HSBC analyst James Steel. Bearish U.S. durable good data, sinking new home sales increase prospect of another Fed rate cut, boosting precious metals price, says Steel. Commodity prices, notably oil and food, continue to soar, providing yet more support for gold; Paulson warns number of U.S. households with negative equity to rise, further correction in housing necessary, remarks could mean there's probably no imminent solution to credit, housing crisis, signals higher goldd prices, says Steel. Oil sharply higher as U.S. petroleum inventories fall, among other factors. Spot gold at $954.30/oz, up 30 cents vs NY close. (EFB) 

1004 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 should fall 40-50 points today, according to traders. Unwinding of recent outperformance could see yesterday's low of 5322.30 tested. Oracle's 8.6% after hours fall on weaker-than-expected sales will also generate fear of another down night on Wall Street. Steep falls in U.S. financials should see major banks decline about 1%-3%, while Macquarie (MQG.AU) could fall 3%-5%. Resources should outperform after commmodity prices mostly rallied overnight. However, except for oil, which rose 4.5%, commodity price gains weren't overly large and oil stocks rose strongly yesterday in advance of oil price surge. A$556 million bid for Programmed Maintainence Services (PRG.AU) by Spotless Group (SPT.AU) isn't big enough to have significant positive impact on sentiment. Some traders calling bottom on Wall Street and Australian shares, mainly because of recent Fed action. But negative reaction to weak U.S. data suggests markets remain vulnerable. Index last 5381.4. (DWR)


----------



## Sean K (28 March 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0728 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup lowers 12-month target on Hallenstein Glasson (HLG.NZ) to NZ$3.95 from NZ$4.60, reduces FY08 net profit estimate by 4% to NZ$19.9 million, FY09 by 12% to NZ$20.6 million, "to reflect increasingly challenging environment in both New Zealand and Australia." Retains Hold rating as HLG is "best of class operator in New Zealand retailing" though now high risk as opposed to medium risk as "deteriorating retail environments in both markets suggest further downside risk to earnings." Stock closed at NZ$3.60 yesterday. (RSH) 

0738 [Dow Jones] NZ shares likely to open in negative territory, weighed down by "rocky night" on Wall Street, says Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird. Expects Fisher & Paykel Appliances (FPA.NZ) to stay under continued pressure after yesterday's news that company opted not to sell finance business, though expects FPA to revisit sale possibility when current credit climate stabilizes. Telecom (TEL.NZ), Fletcher Building (FBU.NZ) could lose more ground on prevailing weak sentiment. Says 4Q GDP data could boost sentiment if outcome stronger than market views. NZX-50 closed down 0.6% at 3405.55 points yesterday. (RSH) 

0829 [Dow Jones] Centro's (CNP.AU) financiers have given the troubled company a six month extension to repay A$4.2 billion of debt, the Sydney Morning Herald reports without citing sources. CNP not immediately available to confirm or deny the report, but if true it should give a boost to CNP shares, which last traded at 24.5c, after slumping from more than A$5.90 in Dec. (MCE) 

0900 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO downgrades Ten (TEN.AU) to Sell from Hold, cuts target to A$2.00 from A$2.75 after group's weaker-than-expected 1H result. "We estimate that TV EBITDA fell around 4% in 2Q, which is disappointing given the good first quarter," analyst says. Cuts FY08 profit forecast by 9% and FY09 forecast by 29%, analyst now factoring in an advertising downturn in FY09. "Ten is positive on current trading, but visibility past May is limited," analyst says. Ten shares closed yesterday at A$2.20, down 2 cents. (LMF) 

0903 [Dow Jones] Failure of AUD/USD overnight to sustain 0.9200 does not bode well for the Australian currency. The past three-to-four-day short squeeze from its pre-Easter falls appears to have ended with the prospect of a return to the 0.8960 lows to follow soon, says Suncorp strategist Peter Pontikis. Expects a close nearer 0.9150 as part of a broader move to return to push pair down to fair value zone of 0.8500 to 0.9000. AUD/USD weakness should be well aligned with like moves in all major currency crosses to the USD. AUD/USD now 0.9190. (JEG) 

0906 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO cuts Babcock & Brown (BNB.AU) to Hold from Buy. Says increase in debt facility announced yesterday should give some financial flexibility "but we have reservations around the equity raising." Adds A$220 million was raised near 12-month lows, does little to improve BNB's gearing, is 4-5% EPS dilutive in 2009. "Asset divestments over the next few months seem likely to raise far more than A$220 million, so the timing of the raising suggests the capital may be used for short-term funding requirements rather than to boost balance sheet flexibility." Cuts share price target to A$15 from A$20 vs stock last at A$14.21. (RBT) 

0908 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks fell as disappointing revenue for Oracle, concerns that Google may be in similar situation dragged techs, while financials like Lehman exacerbated market declines; "the next hurdle for investors is the pre-announcements on earnings season. You heard from Oracle today and I don't know if that's a prelude to what we're going to see," said Steven DeSanctis at Merrill Lynch. Oracle fell 7.2% after reporting growth below Wall Street expectations; Google off 3.1% on concerns it may fall short of Street's 1Q revenue targets. Lehman off 8.9% as credit concerns and potential write-downs worries continued. Clear Channel Communications +10%; said it was granted temporary restraining order against syndicate of Wall Street banks, stopping them for time being from taking any actions that would hurt company's buyout deal with private-equity firms. eBay +4.3 after Piper Jaffray said the electronic-commerce company's 1Q listings were tracking ahead of Piper estimates. ConAgra Foods rose +7.1% after the packaged-food giant said it will sell commodity trading and merchandising group for $2.1 billion. Dow ended off 1%%, Nasdaq 1.9%, Philly semicons down 1.5%. Accenture +4% after-hours; 2Q net income +37%, boosted in part by weaker USD.(RSH) 

0909 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mostly bearish, with SPI futures down 41 points at 5384 after technology-led selloff on Wall Street after disappointing 3Q from Oracle and weak monthly traffic numbers from Google. DJIA down 1% at 12302.46, S&P 500 down 1.2%, Nasdaq down 1.9%. AUD/USD down 11 points at 0.9189. Nymex crude up US$1.68 at US$107.58 and Comex gold just marginally lower at US$948.80. Better day for resources sector likely with strong gains across LME base metals, copper up 4%, zinc +3.2%, aluminum up 2.9%, nickel up 5.4%. BHP (BHP.AU) ADRs at A$35.41 vs A$35.76 locally, but were up 1.6% in London, where Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) also rose 2.1%. Index last 5371.6. (DWR) 

0923 [Dow Jones] Though RBA confident that Australia's banks highly profitable, with minor exposure to U.S. housing sector, it's calling on federal government to beef up regulatory environment against possible bank failures. Council of Financial Regulators, chaired by RBA, wants government to set up facility that'd bail out depositors with an early repayment of up to A$20,000 if a bank collapses - enough to cover entire deposits of 80% of depositors. Also wants boost to Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority's powers to deal with distressed financial institutions. Council's recommendations based on "possible lessons" from recent troubles at U.K.-based lender Northern Rock, which ended with U.K. government nationalizing the bank, exposed shortcomings of U.K.'s financial regulator, FSA. 
(RAP) 

0926 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades Alumina (AWC.AU) to Buy from Neutral, raises target to A$6.70 from A$6.10 after increasing aluminum price forecasts, resulting in pretty significant increases to earnings forecasts for group. UBS raises price deck for aluminum and now expects US$1.45/lb in 2008, up from US$1.24/lb previously; US$1.60 in 2009, up from previous forecast of US$1.30/lb; US$2.00 in 2010, up from US$1.40/lb previously. Raises AWC FY08 profit forecast by 41%, FY09 by 75% and FY10 by 91%. "The changes see our earnings forecasts at the high end of the consensus range," analyst says. AWC last at A$5.46. (LMF)


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## Sean K (3 April 2008)

*Re: Australian Equities Pre Open Roundup*

0756 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD rallies on fall in USD following Fed's Bernanke comments on possibility of recession but expected to hold limited range over next two days, says ANZ senior interest rate strategist Sally Auld; expects pair to find cap at 0.9200 but notes strong buying on dips by exporters expected to keep well supported above 0.9000. Markets likely to hold in this range until RBA Stevens testimony and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data tomorrow. Commodities also giving AUD/USD strength. Shift by RBA to softer tone in recent months reducing momentum for AUD against most crosses in medium-term. "Whereas the bond market is supported by a buy on dips, I think the Aussie is a sell on the rallies," Auld says. Notes AUD/USD unlikely to stage another run for 0.95 any time soon. Pair last 0.9133.(SRH) 

0822 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks fell after several economically sensitive stocks dipped on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's 1st public mention that U.S. recession is possible; still, many observers noted Bernanke's comments served only to acknowledge what investors already believed was true. "He's not saying anything really new, but that things are working out in terms of bailing out the financial institutions and the risk of default for any of these major financials is seen as basically zero," said Lorenzo Di Mattia, manager of hedge fund Sibilla Global Fund. Financials ended lower after ticking up at start of Bernanke's comments; Bank of America lost 1.4%. Merck down 3.2% as continues to hurt from fallout over call for curtailment of cholesterol drugs Vytorin and Zetia. Exxon Mobil gained 1.7% on rise in crude oil futures, but airline stocks declined rapidly on expected subsequent jump in fuel prices, with Continental Airlines losing 5.4%, American Airlines parent AMR Corp. down 2.6%. In late trade, Research In Motion +5% after solidly higher 4Q profit. Dow down 0.4%, Nasdaq off 0.06%, Philly semicons +0.8%. (SHN) 

0832 [Dow Jones] COMMODITY SUMMARY: Spot gold moves back above $900/oz level as speculative buying returns, and on slip in USD, bounce in crude oil. Testimony on the economy from Fed's Bernanke was probably constructive, traders say. Fed chief says economy could contract in 1H; USD slips, with the market expecting more interest rate cuts. Spot gold at $903.50/oz, down 50 cents vs NY close after near-$20 rally overnight; silver at $17.30, up 9 cents; platinum at $1,949.50, down $13.50; palladium at $439.50, down 50 cents. LME metals mixed overnight, signs of slowing global growth, some consolidation expected before 2Q demand ramps up to full speed, analysts and traders say. LME copper charges to strong close above $8,500/ton, shorts forced to cover, raising prospects the metal could eclipse its record $8,820 high from last month in near term. LME 3-month copper last at $8,550, up $1 after $204 rally in London trading; aluminum at $2,944, up $12, down $27 overnight; lead at $2,880, up $12; zinc at $2,358, up $4; nickel at $28,600, up $300 after $1,000 overnight drop; tin unchanged at $20,100. Nymex crude futures settle up $3.85 at $104.83/bbl. (EFB) 

0835 [Dow Jones]Centro Properties (CNP.AU) has reportedly received six bids, with the interest understood to be around buying up Centro shares at a maximum of 90 cents a share. Without citing its sources, The Australian Financial Review reports the bids value the company at a fraction of the price its lenders had hoped to achieve. While the price is big premium to Centro's close yesterday at 29.5 cents, its well shy of the A$5.70 the stock was worth in December and unlikely to spark a rally. Potential investors include Blackstone, the Citadel Investment Group, Lighthouse Partners and Macquarie Group (MQG.AU), the newspaper says. Comment from Centro wasn't immediately available.(SVM) 

0841 [Dow Jones] Spot gold lifts back up above $900/oz level, but further U.S. economic data still due before weekend, and depending on what the numbers reveal, bulls may attempt a push back to higher levels, says Kitco analyst Jon Nadler. But adds sentiment has taken a beating across the board in commodities, further deleveraging could still hit prices. Gold sees some mild bargain-hunting overnight from physical buyers but Indian buyers remain cautious, awaiting still lower values before shopping for the upcoming April/May wedding period. "The specter of deleveraging still looms large above the markets despite calls for the commodity supercycle to continue indefinitely," says Nadler. Fall toward $850/oz previous all-time high still possible. Gold at $903.50, down 50 cents vs NY close, up nearly $20 overnight. (EFB) 

0846 [Dow Jones] Sentiment in base metals cautious, market players continue to act carefully amid improved global market sentiment, says Standard Bank. Improved sentiment comes on back of a marked easing in risk aversion in financial markets since beginning of the week, prompting fund money flowing out of commodities. But despite this fund rotation between different asset classes, base metals remain well supported. U.S. ADP jobs survey saw unexpected rise of 8,000 jobs, advancing general feeling in financial markets that the worst of the credit market writedowns by major banks might have passed. "It remains to be seen how long this optimism can last," says Standard. Fed's Bernanke acknowledges that a U.S. recession is likely as construction is slumping, job creation in general is slowing and consumer spending is on a decline. Next major data release is Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll data. LME copper well supported on news of a possible strike by contract workers at Chile's Codelco, world's number one producer. LME three-month copper at $8,550/ton, up $1 vs PM kerb. (EFB) 

0851 [Dow Jones] Resistance for AUD/USD around 0.9180 in Asian trade with support around 0.9020 today, National Australia Bank Senior Currency Strategist John Kyriakopoulos says. Notes, however, while risk appetite has improved from five-year low in mid-March, is yet to break convincingly higher. Continued pricing for 25 basis point RBA cut before year end still providing headwinds for AUD. "Some recovery in the greenback may be evident in the near-term if news on the U.S. economy continues to beat expectations." AUD/USD last 0.9142. (SRH) 

0908 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mixed, with SFE 200 futures up 21 points at 5584 as commodity price gains offset modest falls on Wall Street. DJIA down 0.4% at 12608.92, S&P 500 down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.1%. Fed's Bernanke says U.S. recession possible; Feb U.S. factory orders fell 1.3% vs expected 0.8% drop. 10-year bond yield up 2.8 bps at 3.57%. AUD/USD up 70 points at 0.9140. Nymex crude up US$3.85 at US$104.83 after U.S. Energy Dept reported higher than expected gasoline demand. Spot gold up US$20 at US$903.50. LME copper up 2.4%, zinc up 1.9%, aluminum down 0.9%, nickel down 3.4%. London-listed BHP Billiton up 2.2%, Rio Tinto up 2.4%. BHP ADRs at A$37.11 equivalent vs A$36.75 locally. S&P/ASX 200 last 5502.9. (DWR) 

0909 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts Bank of Queensland (BOQ.AU) to Underperform from Outperform after recent share price strength. Analyst notes BOQ shares have gained 25.7% since March 17, benchmark S&P/ASX 200 up 8.2% in same time. Keeps A$17.00 target on stock, BOQ last at A$17.08. (LMF) 

0917 [Dow Jones] ABN AMRO keeps Buy rating on Telstra (TLS.AU) after Australian government scraps A$958 million regional broadband funding contract with rival SingTel (Z74.SG); analyst says only TLS can deliver a single national broadband network. "To make the national broadband network work and achieve the government's targets as far as possible requires all traffic and all customers on a single network, at least in regional areas. To do this, we think it needs to work with Telstra. Any alternative - finding a way to migrate up to 4 million broadband customers and possibly 9.5 million PSTN customers onto a rival network - looks too risky," analyst says. But reckons the network won't be sorted out until late 2008. Targets TLS at A$5.38, stock last at A$4.50. (LMF)


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## Sean K (4 April 2008)

0720 [Dow Jones] OVERNIGHT SUMMARY: Nymex crude ended $1/bbl lower after a volatile trading day, with prices led by US gasoline and the dollar. May crude settled $1 lower at $103.83, after trading as high as $106.44 then weakening toward settlement. It was recently trading at $104.28. ICE Brent crude fell $1.23 to $105.52. Talk of a slowing global economy also weighed and all eyes will be on US jobs data today. US gasoline fell 4.93 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.7243/gal and heating oil ended down 2.82 cents, or 1%, at $2.9228. For more information, keyword search OIL FUTURES or Top Energy (MCE) 

0845 [Dow Jones] Consolidated Media (CMJ.AU) shares likely to jump on open on speculation Lachlan Murdoch's bid for group is back on track. Shares rallied yesterday on heavy volumes amid hopes of a revived deal. A report in The Australian newspaper says Murdoch close to signing deal with Providence Equity Partners to replace SFO Partners, who pulled out of his A$3.3 billion privatization plan for CMJ at last minute. Report says Murdoch could get Providence to sign as soon as next week; if so, would likely go back to CMJ board to ask to do more due diligence, but not alter original proposal to offer A$4.06 cash per CMJ share plus 0.1116 Seek (SEK.AU) shares. Spokespeople for Murdoch or Providence not immediately available for comment. Providence has shown solid interest in Australian media previously; firm reportedly was one of losing bidders when James Packer sold majority of PBL's media assets to CVC; U.S.-based firm also backed Independent News & Media's failed tilt to takeover APN News & Media. (LMF) 

0850 [Dow Jones] Newcrest Mining (NCM.AU) could raise between A$320 million and A$350 million from the sale of its Cracow gold mine, Credit Suisse says. Says the consideration is likely to be cash and that Newcrest will not proceed with a sale unless it is value-accretive. Says Newcrest needs to manage a disproportionate growth in its copper earnings relative to gold earnings in the future. "An acquisition by NCM of Lihir Gold (LGL.AU) would rebalance NCM's copper to gold inventory and largely alleviate NCM's medium-term copper production growth dilution issue," CS says. Maintains Outperform rating with A$45 target price. (APW) 

0900 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD unlikely to be driven too much by RBA Stevens' statements to parliamentarians today, though February retail sales data could provide some catalyst for selling, says Macquarie Bank FX associate director Jo Masters. Results significantly below +0.3% on-month consensus forecast for retail sales could push AUD/USD down to support level of 0.9092, with resistance likely at 0.9190. "If you get a weaker-than-expected number, it will cement people's views that the RBA is done or on hold for the moment." Ahead of payrolls data in U.S. likely to stay in recent ranges. AUD/USD last 0.9162. (SRH) 

0911 [Dow Jones] Newcrest Mining (NCM.AU) is close to naming Beadell Resources (BDR.AU) as the top bidder for its Cracow gold mine with a bid close to A$200 million, Australian Financial Review reports. Beadell is a junior gold explorer with a market cap of A$16.7 million, but the newspaper says company plans to raise equity to fund the purchase through Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Lion Selection (LST.AU), which has 30% stake in Cracow, has right to match any bids and is keen to secure control of the mine. Beadell and Newcrest not immediately available for comment. (APW) 

0913 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads slightly positive, with SFE 200 futures up 14 points at 5679.0 after slight gains on Wall Street and flat night on commodity prices. DJIA up 0.2% at 12626.03, S&P 500 up 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.1%. Consumer discretionary stocks fell after U.S. jobless claims hit 407,000, highest since 2005. Best Buy down 3.2%. ISM March services sector index rose to 49.6 vs 48.7 consensus. Merrill Lynch CEO repeated last month's comment that Merrill didn't need to raise fresh capital. Merrill rose 1.2%. Alcoa rose 5.8% amid strength in miners. 10-year bond yield down one basis point at 3.58%. Constellation Brands rose 5.3% after beating 4Q consensus profit forecasts. AUD/USD up 22 points at 0.9164. Nymex crude down US$1.00 at US$103.83. Spot gold near flat at US$903.00. LME copper near flat, zinc down 1.4%, aluminum down 0.8%, nickel up 2.1%. London listed BHP (BLT.L) up 2.1%. Rio (RTP.L) up 1.5%. BHP ADR's at A$38.49 vs A$38.09 locally. Index last 5608.9. (DWR) 

0919 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks end higher after report that Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain doesn't think bank needs to raise fresh capital. "We have plenty of capital going forward, and we don't need to come back into the equity market," Thain told Japan's Nikkei newspaper; Merrill Lynch +1.2%. Rising commodity prices also helped offset weak jobless data but market waiting for U.S. nonfarm payrolls report Friday EDT. "Even with the news this morning, people are waiting to see nonfarms - that's the most important," said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading. Aluminum giant Alcoa +5.8%, Amazon down 3.1% after Piper Jaffray reduced estimates on Internet retailer to reflect expected "sluggish" online spending for US consumers. Cisco Systems shed 2.9% with UBS downgrading stock to neutral from buy on concerns about softening demand. Research In Motion +5.9% after BlackBerry maker said 4Q profit, revenue more than doubled. Schering-Plough +11% after pharmaceutical company launched cost-cutting plan. Spirits and wine company Constellation Brands +5.3% on 4Q profit beat analysts' forecasts. Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Philly semicons +2.5%. (RSH) 

0923 [Dow Jones] COMMODITY SUMMARY: LME mixed overnight, all eyes on tonight's U.S. jobs data for further signs of U.S. recession. LME copper peaks at $8,629/ton on short covering, before retreating, less than $200 from March record high. Given deteriorating picture for U.S. demand, markets will be closely watching payrolls data tonight, say traders. Rise in both LME and weekly Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks subdue upside momentum. LME 3-month copper last at $8,527.50, down $22.50 on PM kerb; aluminum at $2,910, up $2; lead at $2,943, down $7; zinc unchanged at $2,320; nickel up $160 at $29,060; tin down $5 at $20,200. Spot gold recovers from early weakness, trades above $900/oz level as USD gives up some initial strength. Platinum firm, safe-haven buying along with gold; fears of political instability that could affect supplies in platinum producer Zimbabwe, worries that electrical shortages could persist for some time in key producer South Africa. Spot gold trades at $905.00, up $1.70 vs NY close; silver at $17.36, up 3 cents; platinum at $1,984, down $2; palladium at $435.50, down $3.50. Nymex crude futures down $1 overnight at $103.83/bbl. (EFB) 

0940 [Dow Jones] LME erratic, cautious trading continues amid renewed optimism that worst of the credit crisis is over. Cautious trading activity also prevalent in other commodities as well before payroll data; markets seem to overreact to any news, especially economic data out of the U.S., says Standard Bank. ISM non-manufacturing composite index edges higher from 49.3% in February to 49.6% in March. But March figure still indicates probable contraction in non-manufacturing sector, says Standard Bank. Non-manufacturing constitutes, by far, the largest part of U.S. GDP, but market reacts positively after very bad readings of December, January; LME copper reacts positively to ISM data. LME 3-month copper at $8,527.50/ton, down $22.50 vs PM kerb.(EFB) 

0943 [Dow Jones] RBA Stevens' opening statements are balanced, confirming previous comments by central bank that suggest RBA now likely on hold, says Lehman Brother Chief Economist Stephen Roberts. AUD/USD slightly weaker, 3-year bond futures climb 3 bps to 93.80 after statement but since retraced gains; AUD/USD down 15 pips at 0.9140. (SRH)


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## Sean K (7 April 2008)

0813 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks were mixed Friday as consumer stocks and large financials sold off after employment data reignited recession fears; energy and materials stocks continued to surge, with commodities such as gold, silver and copper, all trading higher as USD weakened. For March, nonfarm payrolls fell by 80,000, the biggest decline in 5 years, while the unemployment rate jumped to 5.1%. "They're really not good numbers, but they suggest we're more comfortable with our forecast for a 50-basis-point rate cut from the Fed," said Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers, who now thinks there's a "good chance" Q1 GDP will be negative. Car maker General Motors shed 4.7% as the Chapter 11 case of supplier Delphi took a sour turn, with a lead investor looking to pull out of an equity investment agreement. Financial stocks traded lower on the recession fears with Bank of America down 2.4%. Technology stocks were among the better performers; solar wafers maker LDK Solar gained 15% fueled by increasingly optimistic estimates for solar demand; First Solar was up 10.5% and SunPower added 10.2%. Gap dropped 3.6% after Credit Suisse cut its rating on the retailer to neutral from outperform. Bucking the trend among financials, UBS rose 3.6% as a former president of the bank pushed for change that could result in a breakup of the firm. Dow closed down 0.1%, Nasdaq +0.3, Philly semicons down 0.4%. (RSH) 

0832 [Dow Jones] Chairman of retail giant Myer Group has reportedly petitioned RBA Governor Glenn Stevens directly about the deteriorating economic conditions saying multiple rate hikes since mid-2007 have divided the country. According to a report in The Australian newspaper, Bill Wavish's letter to RBA's Stevens says rate hikes have "hollowed out" the economy. Official cash rate target now at a 12-year high of 7.25%. Wavish says resources sector booming, but manufacturing and retail sectors now in a slump. RBA now under considerable media attack after four rate hikes since August 2007. Wavish comments follow consecutive monthly falls in retail sales and survey data showing sharp drops in consumer and business confidence. (JEG) 

0917 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads neutral/bullish, with SPI futures up 39 points at 5693.0 after flat close on Wall Street and modest gains in commodity prices. DJIA down 0.1% at 12609.42, S&P 500 up 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.1%. February US jobs fell 80,000 (biggest fall in 5 years) vs 15,000 fall expected. US 10-year bond yield down 11 bps at 3.46%. AUD/USD up 54 points at 0.9220. Nymex crude up US$2.40 at US$106.23. Spot gold up US$10.50 at US$913.70. LME copper up 1.3%, zinc up 1.9%, aluminum up 1.5%, nickel up 0.4%. CBOT wheat up 3.9%. BHP (BHP.AU) ADRs at A$39.71 vs A$38.60 locally. Index last 5619.6. (DWR) 

0935 [Dow Jones] COMMODITY SUMMARY: LME metals strong despite a large drop in U.S. jobs figures, gains expected to continue into next week. Third straight sharp drop in U.S. payrolls added weight to Fed's Bernanke's recent warning that the U.S. economy may be in recession, helped cap metals' rally. Despite the jobs report, a third straight daily build in LME stocks; LME copper holds up well, says Base Metals.com analyst William Adams. LME copper likely to eclipse contract high next week, traders say; prices peak Friday at $8,695/ton, just $125 shy of March's all-time contract high. LME 3-month copper PM kerb at $8,665, up $115 on previous kerb, lead up $10 at $2,940, zinc up $45 at $2,365, aluminum up $45 at $2,953, nickel up $105 at $29,200, tin up $45 at $20,150. Spot gold bounces higher as USD falls, but poor U.S. payroll numbers not quite bearish enough to ignite fresh buying in gold, says BNP Paribas. Gold set to move higher again: "Gold is in a bull market," trader says. "Everybody knows there's going to be another rate cut." Gold trading at $915.42/oz, up $1.72, silver at $17.83, up 9 cents, platinum at $2,012, down $6, palladium at $439, down $5. Nymex crude futures up 22 cents at $106.45/oz. (EFB) 

0937 [Dow Jones]Goldman Sachs JBWere says the spread paid on Wesfarmers' (WES.AU) U.S. bonds has been more than offset by the upside from higher coal prices. "Furthermore, it is likely that the average rate on the remaining A$3.3 billion of debt to be refinanced by October 2008 will be lower than that achieved on the U.S. bond issue," analyst says. WES paid around 11% on the U.S. bonds, financing around 18% of its total A$4 billion. Maintains Buy. Price target A$47.67 vs last trade A$39.44. (SVM) 

0954 [Dow Jones] Spot gold higher after weak U.S. employment data, strong commodity prices; platinum prices firm as supply worries continue to concern market, says HSBC analyst James Steel. Escalating commodity prices are likely to set stage for further precious metals gains, particularly gold, says Steel. Grain futures up as violent protests erupt over rice prices in Philippines. Higher food prices, says Steel, are supporting gold prices, by raising global inflation, increasing social unrest in emerging world. Spot gold at $915.30/oz, up $1.60 vs NY close, platinum at $2,015, down $3. (EFB) 

0958 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs JBWere raises forecasts for coking coal but trims thermal coal price forecast. Says the coking coal market is structurally undersupplied with ongoing shortages for premium high grade coking coal for the seaborne market. Increases hard coking coal price forecast for 2008/09 by 16% to US$290/metric ton, semi-soft by 20% to US$180/ton and low-vol PCI by 18% to US$200/ton. However, GSJBW trims contract thermal coal price forecast by 8% to US$120/ton; says spot prices have fallen from highs as supply side concerns gradually abate. (APW) 

0958 [Dow Jones] Australian building survey joins the recent spate of indicators flagging some slowing in economy, with construction sector contracting in March for the first time in seven months, says AiG-HIA's monthly Performance of Construction Index. Weakening consumer sentiment, rising rates and caution from property developers is impacting, survey found. But likelihood is for PCI to soften further, as rising cost of funds and recent rate hikes will crimp development, says AiG Associate Director, Economics and Research, Tony Pensabene. March PCI slipped 5.5 points to 48.4 points. (EGC) 

1004 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 likely volatile after ANZ said 1H credit provisions will exceed market consensus due to higher collective provision charge. ANZ flags A$975 million total 1H provision for credit impapirment vs A$567 million for FY07. But ANZ says underlying business performing well with revenue growth of 11% vs 1H 2007. Banks likely to spike down in sympathy with ANZ. However, resources and other major stocks may surprise on upside because Wall Street held up despite worse-than-expected jobs data, leaving pressure on short sellers. DJIA looks to be forming bullish flag pattern that could generate temporary push through major resistance at 12767.0. U.S. investment bank results next week will be obstacles. But there's lack of U.S. data this week, so shorters may be squeezed. Resources should offset financials weakness today after BHP Billiton ADRs rose and commodity prices rallied. S&P/ASX 200 early up 0.3% at 5634.4. (DWR) 

1007 [Dow Jones] Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ.AU) likely to be hurt early due to trading update flagging credit provisioning above market expectations. Despite underlying business performing well, global market turmoil to impact credit quality of institutional portfolio, bank says. Increases collective provision to reflect risks "which are yet to crystallize". Total provision for credit impairment in first half likely around A$975 million, up from A$567 million for previous FY. Further details likely during investor call by CEO Mike Smith at 0045 GMT. (ILM)


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## Sean K (9 April 2008)

0824 [Dow Jones] Australian-listed shares of BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) likely to extend surge to new 2008 high above A$42.00 (closed yesterday at A$40.40), after 4.6% increase in London-listed shares on report in Australian newspaper that China is mulling a bid for a stake, larger than 9% stake that state-backed aluminum producer Chinalco took in Rio Tinto (RIO.AU). Local traders likely to echo London traders view that report is vague, with report citing unnamed sources in Beijing and emerging just as Prime Minister Rudd prepares to meet Chinese leaders; paper says Beijing hasn't yet determined which state-owned financial institution or steel mill might take lead role in buying a stake. Still, traders likely won't want to be caught short. BHP ADRs also firmer, +5.2% to A$42.40 equivalent.(WEL) 

0833 [Dow Jones] Westpac (WBC.AU) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) likely to follow ANZ Bank's (ANZ.AU) lead and raise provisioning levels for bad and doubtful debts, UBS says. Raises WBC's bad and doubtful debt charges by A$150 million, says with a newly appointed CEO "we see an opportunity for WBC to follow ANZ's lead." Says CBA appears to be suffering heavily from "bad boys" (debts) so far, and analyst tops up CBA's BDD charges by a further A$120 million for FY08. "With thin BDD cover, we see further earnings risk to CBA into FY09," analyst says. Now expects zero EPS growth for sector in FY08. Also says Friday will be a critical day for banks, as the review period for Allco Finance Group's (AFG.AU) senior bank facilities is due to expire. "At this time the lenders must determine whether they will appoint a receiver to AFG or further extend this facility," analyst says. (LMF) 

0837 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD's break above 0.9270 overnight significant as it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the slide from 0.9471 to 0.8955, says John Kyriakopoulos, head of FX strategy at nabCapital. Better news on commodity prices and higher risk appetite are more than offsetting an accumulation of economic reports pointing to slower domestic economic growth in Australia. Unless traders price more easing by the RBA than currently, a sharp pullback in the AUD will require renewed risk aversion and a slump in commodity prices. NAB's fair value estimate now 0.9610. Now 0.9309 compared with 0.9220 at the start of the week. (JEG) 

0852 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks fell after 1Q earnings shortfall for Alcoa, Advanced Micro Devices' projection for revenue below market expectations gave rise to fears about economy; financial stocks also hurt on dividend cut and projection of wider-than-expected losses for Washington Mutual, which fell 10.2%; Attention now turning to other earnings reports as investors brace for potentially bad news; "The real focus is going to be on some of the other companies, especially industrial and energy," said Cleve Rueckert, research analyst for Birinyi Associates; "Then we'll really see how much of an impact the subprime and credit crisis had on the broader economy." Alcoa off 0.7% after 1Q profit dropped 54%, AMD fell 4.9% on news it will cut 10% of its work force, plus reducing 1Q revenue forecast below market expectations; Intel also lost 3.1%. Homebuilder Lennar down 8.3%, KB Home down 4.9% after February home-sales data fell shy of expectations Dow off 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.7%, Philly semicons down 2.8%. (SHN) 

0857 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Dexus (DXS.AU) cut to Sell from Neutral by UBS, which lowers 12-month price target to A$1.62 from A$1.71 on view the premium it's enjoyed, with 3.4% relative outperformance over the last quarter, on its perception as a defensive property portfolio underwritten by M&A appeal is "at risk, with several misunderstood risks" set to weigh on DXS. Notes its international exposure is underestimated, with 27% of EBIT from U.S. industrial property and its domestic cap rates are under pressure. DXS last A$1.685. (WEL) 

0908 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD strength over the last 24 hours mostly linked to rising investor risk appetite, but news that China may move to buy a substantial stake in mining giant BHP Billiton also bolstering sentiment, says Sue Trinh, currency strategist at RBC Capital. According to a report in The Australian newspaper, China is seeking to buy a multibillion dollar stake in BHP. Next topside target for AUD/USD is 0.9400. Now 0.931. (JEG) 

0911 [Dow Jones] Chinese plan to buy stake in BHP (BHP.AU), as reported in The Australian newspaper, would make strategic sense for the Chinese, says Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken. "In our view it does make strategic sense for the Chinese to own some part of BHP, but we are still not pro any government owning a stake in BHP," says Aitken. Speculation of Chinese interest in BHP comes before 2008 iron ore price settlement. A Chinese stake in BHP could allow China to save face on conceding to higher iron ore prices. BHP last A$40.40. (DWR) 

0912 [Dow Jones] China would have to pay a significant premium for any stake in BHP (BHP.AU), says Charlie Aitken, executive director at Southern Cross Equities. Follows report in the Australian newspaper that China is planning to buy stake in BHP, larger than 9% stake that state-backed aluminum producer Chinalco took in Rio Tinto (RIO.AU). Aitken says China would have to pay bigger premium for any stake in BHP. "I wouldn't sell them a share below A$50.00. They paid a 20% premium for RIO. The stock is obviously worth more than A$50/share to the Chinese so anywhere under A$50.00 is cheap today." Says rumor has been around for some time. BHP ADRs close at A$42.40 vs A$40.40 locally yesterday. (DWR) 

0923 [Dow Jones] COMMODITIES SUMMARY: Base metals lower overnight, weighed by USD rebound, and further consolidation may be in order before attempting new highs, say traders. Money markets under stress, trading volumes across base, precious metals fairly light as markets wait for clearer sense of direction; risks to global financial stability have "increased sharply," says IMF, noting potential losses from write-downs of bad debt approaching $1 trillion. Unless an outside factor - like CESCO copper conference underway in Chile - provides some bullish news, base metals could see further pressure, says BaseMetals.com analyst Will Adams. LME 3-month copper at $8,535/ton, down $185, lead off $65 at $2,895, zinc off $64 at $2,350, aluminum off $12 at $2,986, nickel down $175 at 28,850, tin off $50 at $20,400. Spot gold, silver lower overnight, but tick higher in early Asia; crude oil down overnight, too. "Gold and silver don't have any sponsorship right now," says Larry Bilello, MD at B&C Trading; "the dollar feels like it's bottoming a bit. There was no follow-through on yesterday's rally." IMF decision to sell some gold has limited impact, though may have muted recent rally; IMF plans have been afoot for some time, still need approval from U.S. Congress; officials presumably will undertake sales in a manner that won't cause havoc to market. Spot gold at $917.00/oz, +$1.60 vs NY close, silver at $17.73, +6 cents, platinum at $2,017.50, down $10.50, palladium at $449, down $5. Nymex crude futures up 33 cents at $108.83/bbl.(EFB)


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## Sean K (11 April 2008)

0757 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD expected to consolidate around current levels in Asia ahead of G7 meeting this weekend, says Macquarie Bank associate FX director Joanne Masters. AUD/USD sidelined in European, U.S. sessions but well supported. "It's caught by conflicting pressures", with USD recovering against EUR, JPY after upbeat sentiment on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs CEO comments suggesting end for credit woes may be near. However, AUD resilience driven by strong coal contract gains, speculation about mining stocks. "Those sort of things have kept the Aussie on the radar and provided some support when other currencies have weakened against that stronger U.S. dollar." Expects AUD/USD to make move back up to 0.9350-0.9360 "but not through that". Latest 0.9315. (SRH) 

0828 [Dow Jones] Shares in Tatts (TTS.AU), Tabcorp (TAH.AU) poised for heavy falls on yesterday's decision to abolish their pokie machine duopoly in Victoria post-2012. But trading likely to be volatile, given the decision was such a surprise and the huge uncertainty now surrounding their future revenue streams. Tatts and Tabcorp both expected to pursue legal action for compensation. Pre-market trades suggest both stocks to fall more than 13%. TTS last trade A$3.66, TAH A$14.37. (SVM) 

0840 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks up but ended off highs, weighed by some late selling in financial names; DJIA ended +0.4%, Nasdaq +1.3%, Philly semicons +1.8%. "The credit crisis is still very much with us," says one strategist; Fed "action has allowed financials to take more time with this, but it's still a process and not an overnight process." Merrill Lynch, which will report 1Q earnings next week, fell 2.9%; Lehman off 0.7% after liquidating 3 investment funds after stressed markets caused funds' assets to decline in value. Techs helped by jump in chip shares after Banc of America upped sector to overweight; Intel +3.1%, Analog Devices +5.1%. Yahoo +3% after WSJ reported it and Time Warner's AOL are closing in on deal to combine Internet ops, in bid to thwart Microsoft's effort to buy Yahoo. However, Microsoft is recrafting its plan by talking with News Corp. Wal-Mart +1%; it boosted 1Q earnings forecast after reporting 0.7% rise in U.S. same-store sales, excluding fuel. Transport stocks perked up with index +1.4% amid a halt to recent surge in oil price. Millennium Pharma +49% on deal to be bought by Japan's Takeda. Majors mostly quiet after-hours.(RXM) 

0853 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citi cuts Tabcorp (TAH.AU) to Sell from Hold on surprise decision by Victorian Government to move to a venue-owner model of gaming machine licensing. However, analyst says removal of the gaming license eliminates the conflict that precluded Crown (CWN.AU) from bidding for TAH, and the opportunity for further corporate action could keep a floor under TAH. "But, CWN has other large acquisitions underway, and capital market conditions are not conducive to a raising of size, limiting near term potential for a bid," analyst says. Expects TAH will pursue compensation from the Victorian Government for refund of license payment. Price target cut to A$11.17 from A$14.80 vs last trade A$14.37. (SVM) 

0854 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS cuts Bank of Queensland (BOQ.AU) target to A$15.75 from A$19.50, but keeps Neutral rating, after bank's 1H result. Says result looks reasonable, but outlook remains difficult. "BOQ appears to be bunkering down to ride out the tougher environment," analyst says. Cuts FY09 EPS estimate by 3% given ongoing funding pressures, tips 23 basis points in margin pressure for FY08 and a further 18 bps for FY09, which analyst notes will be partially offset by strong lending growth. BOQ last at A$15.75. (LMF) 

0857 [Dow Jones] Citi says Tatts (TTS.AU), Tabcorp (TAH.AU) will likely pursue compensation from the Victorian government for refund of license payments. "The claim by the Victorian government that neither operator is entitled to a refund may be "posturing", in order to appease anti-gambling groups, as to make a refund after being ordered to by a court is politically more saleable than to hand over money willingly and without putting up a fight," analyst says. Maintains TTS at Sell; TAH cut to Sell from Hold. (SVM) 

0857 [Dow Jones]Citi says changes in Victorian gaming will impact Woolworths (WOW.AU) as the largest gaming machine operator in that state (44% of hotel machines). "While details are limited, we fail to see benefits to WOW because gaming licences will be costly and taxes favor small hoteliers," analyst says. Based on results in Queensland, estimates licences may cost A$150,000 to A$200,000 each, implying an outlay of A$850-$1,150 million for WOW's ALH business. "WOW will receive more gaming machine revenue given the operator has been cut out of the process," analyst says. "However, WOW will incur costs in buying and operating machines, amortising the licences and interest costs in servicing the debt to acquire the licences." Estimates WOW's pre-tax profit could fall by A$33-$121 million. Maintains WOW at Hold. (SVM) 

0904 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mixed, with SPI futures up 2 points at 5481 amid modest gains on Wall Street and falls in commodity prices. DJIA up 0.4% at 12581.98, S&P 500 up 0.5%, Nasdaq up 1.3%. U.S. 10-year bond yield up 6.4 bps at 3.53%. AUD/USD up 41 points at 0.9324. Nymex crude down 76 cents at US$110.11. Spot gold down US$4.90 at US$928.80. LME copper down 1.0%, zinc down 1.0%, aluminum near flat, nickel up 0.5%. BHP Billiton ADRs at A$41.85 equivalent vs A$42.00 locally. S&P/ASX 200 last 5446.4. (DWR) 

0905 [Dow Jones] Bank of Queensland's (BOQ.AU) 1H result provides a mixed read-across for the sector, says Merrill Lynch. Says while BOQ's margin result will create concerns for all banks, analyst notes BOQ has a greater and increasing reliance on the wholesale funding markets compared to peers "and may be suffering from being crowded out as larger and more highly rated banks tap these markets more aggressively." Analyst says offsetting this, the retail & SME asset quality performance is "reassuring for all banks." Keeps Sell rating on BOQ after the result. (LMF) 

0912 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO downgrades Tabcorp (TAH.AU) to Sell; price target cut to A$10.77 from A$15.55. "We would expect TAH to maintain its wagering monopoly from 2012, although we believe this will not offset the loss of around 25% in revenue/EBITDA from Victorian gaming and the loss of around A$700 million in licence expiry payments," analyst says. Last trade A$14.37. (SVM)


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## Sean K (16 April 2008)

0740 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks rose as financials like JPMorgan Chase clawed back some losses while oil's record price run helped Exxon Mobil even as it damped enthusiasm about an airline merger deal; many midsize banks and financial firms rose as investors took heart from earnings reports, hoping credit problems were not as systemic as feared after Wachovia reported Monday. Larger financials also benefited with insurance giant American International Group up 1.9% and JPMorgan Chase adding 1.5%. Charles Schwab gained 9% after the discount broker reported 1Q earnings growth, helped by new client assets; M&T Bank added 6.3% after the bank posted higher 1Q profit boosted by a gain related to its interest in credit-card Visa's IPO; Northern Trust gained 4.7% after its 1Q profit was also buoyed by the Visa debut. However, State Street fell 9.9% despite posting earnings growth as Fitch Ratings placed the money manager's credit ratings on watch due to subprime mortgage loan concerns. Among oil majors Exxon Mobil rose 1.2% as oil futures closed at yet another record high. However, rising fuel costs weighed on airlines with Delta Air Lines down 13% and Northwest Airlines down 8.4% even after they unveiled a merger deal; Continental Airlines was down 7% and United Airlines parent UAL fell 5.5%. Dow closed up 0.5%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Philly Semicons down 0.2%. (SRO) 

0831 [Dow Jones] Citi says QBE (QBE.AU) could raise offer for IAG (IAG.AU) to as much as A$4.50/share and still generate EPS accretion of 10% in FY10, assuming synergies could be raised to A$400 million. Doesn't see significant scope for competing bids, and no obvious candidates. "Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU), Allianz, Zurich and a Chinese insurer could be on a list of possibilities, but none seems that likely given QBE potentially has higher synergies," analyst says. Raises IAG target to A$4.00 from A$3.60, keeps at Hold. Also says while some time is needed to digest the transaction from QBE's perspective given a potential significant increase in shares on issue, cuts target to A$24.00 from A$28.00, keeps at Hold. IAG last at A$4.19, QBE at A$22.90. (LMF) 

0842 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse upgrades David Jones (DJS.AU) to Outperform from Neutral due to recent relative share price movements. "Since March 6, DJS's share price has fallen 15.2% while the S&P/ASX 200 has fallen 0.6%," analyst says. Price target A$4.50 vs last trade A$3.40.(SVM) 

0856 [Dow Jones] QBE's (QBE.AU) A$7.4 billion takeover approach to IAG (IAG.AU) likely to be "step one" in what might prove to be a long, drawn out battle, Merrill Lynch says. "Strategically we find it difficult to believe QBE would bring a takeover offer that is masquerading as a nil premium merger that is (in QBE's view) in the best interest of all parties to the table, up the bid with a modestly higher second low-ball offer, make it all public to engage IAG shareholders in the debate and pressure IAG's board and then walk away from the whole thing without lifting the offer on 21 April when the offer folds," analyst says. Still, says QBE may have delivered IAG "the perfect get out of jail free card", notes proposal will underpin IAG shares irrespective of whether QBE pulls out. "The completion of the deal would no doubt see significant, perhaps necessary change forced upon IAG and could result in the businesses capital issues being resolved." Has Buy rating on QBE with A$30 target vs last trade A$22.90, and Neutral rating on IAG. (LMF) 

0906 [Dow Jones] Tabcorp (TAH.AU) to begin a cost-cutting program as well as freezing capital spending in its gaming division following the loss of its Victorian gaming machine license after 2012, The Australian Financial Review reports. Without citing its sources, the newspaper says Tatts (TTS.AU) is believed to have also halted capital spending in its gaming division, and is looking to increase the role of its Maxgaming monitoring business. No real surprises, with TTS, TAH expected to cut spending. Near-term focus likely to remain on their chances of recouping compensation. TTS and TAH weren't immediately available to comment. (SVM) 

0909 [Dow Jones] ABM AMRO says recent weakness in Amcor's (AMC.AU) share price suggests the stock is approaching good value. AMC's restructuring of the European flexible packaging business will be a key factor behind a sustained recovery of its shares, ABN says in client note. Tuesday's sale of two plants was another important step forward and makes strategic sense as the plants are positioned at the commodity end of the market, ABN says. AMC aims to cut European plant numbers to 27 from 36, which means a further five will be sold or closed over the next 2 years. Keeps Hold, A$6.90 target. Last trade A$6.67. (ABH) 

0911 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads mostly bullish, with SPI futures up 71 points at 5519.0 after Wall Street rose amid strength in oil stocks and financials, offset by fall in airlines. DJIA up 0.5% at 12362.47, S&P 500 up 0.5%, Nasdaq up 0.5%. March PPI rose 1.1% vs 0.6% consensus, but core PPI met expectations of 0.2%. Johnson & Johnson fell slightly despite 40% rise in 1Q profit. NY Fed said regional manufacturing expanded slightly. Intel was up 7.9% in after hours trading on forecast higher 2Q profit margins. 1Q profit met expectations. U.S. 10-year bond yield up 6 bps at 3.57%. AUD/USD down 10 points at 0.9258. Nymex crude up US$2.03 at US$113.79, hitting record high of US$114.08 in after hours trading. Spot gold up US$3.50 at US$927.40. LME copper down 1.5%, zinc near flat, aluminum down 1.5%, nickel near flat. BHP (BHP.AU) ADRs at A$43.07 vs A$42.00 locally. Index last 5400.4. (DWR) 

0916 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ABN AMRO trims target price for Energy Resources of Australia (ERA.AU) to A$23.74 from A$23.78 as 1Q production disappoints. Says uranium output was 8% below ABN forecasts. "There is now pressure on the mill to perform throughout the remainder of 2008, although we remain positive on Ranger's expansion potential," ABN says. Maintains buy rating but says a further decline in the spot uranium price could lead to share price weakness in the near term. ERA last traded at A$20.08. (APW) 

0918 [Dow Jones] COMMODITY SUMMARY: LME copper lower on technical selling, further losses are possible this week; market closely watching USD movements. Business out of China, other parts of Asia still slow for 3rd week in row. "We're not seeing any Far East or Chinese buying," says London-based trader; "Upside remains a stiff hurdle at the moment." Copper consolidating in $8,500-$8,800/ton range, says JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen. LME tin bucks trend, hits new record high on continued concerns about output from Indonesia, world's largest tin exporter. Government plans to limit mining area available to new exploration and exploitation projects for metals including tin. LME 3-month copper down $130 at $8,420, aluminum down $46 at $2,999, lead down $77 at $2,838, zinc down $5 at $2,300, nickel down $5 at $28,895, tin up $180 at $20,975. Spot gold retreats from overnight highs, stays in range; sign of more consolidation to come considering precious metals unable to benefit more from record highs in crude oil, surge in U.S. PPI data indicating rising inflation. "It (gold) can't get out of its own way," says Tom O'Brien, precious-metals analyst and editor of The Gold Report newsletter; "Gold should have moved big time because of what the crude did and because of the PPI." Spot gold at $926.50/oz, down $2.20 vs NY close, silver at $17.78, down 7 cents, platinum at $1,974, down $2, palladium at $448.50, down $3.50. Nymex crude down 20 cents at $113.59/bbl, after topping record high of $114.08 overnight. (EFB) 

0918 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citi boosts United Group (UGL.AU) to Buy from Hold and target price to A$16.00 from A$12.00 to reflect share price decline. "Despite hiccups, business fundamentals remain strong - UGL shares fell 45% on market weakness, 1H miss, and US recession concern," Citi says in client note. "But key elements of the UGL story remain sound - domestic infrastructure/resources spending remains robust, Unicco is highly defensive, and valuation is finally attractive." UGL trading at 13x forward PER and at parity with S&P/ASX 200, Citi says. "The story has been tainted, but the risk/reward is immensely better than just a few months ago." Last trade A$12.35. (ABH)


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## Wysiwyg (15 May 2018)

*Stock Investors May Have Missed the Boat on Australia’s Rally*
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...obe-could-cut-8-of-finance-jobs-jpmorgan-says


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