# Five year stocks



## chris bartlett (13 February 2007)

Any recomendations for  set and forget stocks for the next 5 years? Some with good dividends and some with good growth please.Thankyou.


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 February 2007)

chris bartlett said:
			
		

> Any recomendations for  set and forget stocks for the next 5 years? Some with good dividends and some with good growth please.Thankyou.




the usual suspects

BHP
RIO
PPT
WES
NAB
SUN


Garpal


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## imajica (13 February 2007)

For Growth

INL - now cash flow positive - emerging growth story
AAX - services the mining industry - smart management
ALB - sitting on a huge deposit - looks massively undervalued
AED - huge oil reserves


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## Ken (13 February 2007)

BHP - big berther
ACB - uranium potential
MFS - diversified financial
TLS - dividend to continue
NAB - bank cause i work there hehe
NXS - Nexus energy to grow substancially


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## Joe Blow (13 February 2007)

Gents, lets not turn this into a ramping thread please.

The criteria is: dividends and/or solid growth. Lets not just make a list of stocks we hold. 

It would also be nice to have a little more info than just the stock code if possible.


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## rederob (13 February 2007)

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Gents, lets not turn this into a ramping thread please.
> 
> The criteria is: dividends and/or solid growth. Lets not just make a list of stocks we hold.
> 
> It would also be nice to have a little more info than just the stock code if possible.



What are you smokin' Joe?
Not even krisbarry could get caught ramping 5 years ahead, surely?
The criteria are useful and useless.
Past performance (dividend) is no indicator of future profit, and growth can be stymied by any number of factors.
If China falters badly then the Big Berthas of the world might not look good in 5 years time.
If interest rates crash the housing market and bad debts hit the banks, then even their future might not look too bright - they have had a dream run for many years, so will they luck out.
Then there is the prospect your "good" equity will be bought out well before 5 years is up - let's face it, mergers and acquisitions are hot to trot right now.
Maybe there is a company making crystal balls worth a punt, or a rough diamond like Bluglass that can shed some new light.


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## doctorj (13 February 2007)

And for the rest of us that don't have access to a money-back guarantee crystal ball, they can back up their opinions with at least some analysis as to how their suggestions meet the criteria.


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## rederob (14 February 2007)

doctorj said:
			
		

> And for the rest of us that don't have access to a money-back guarantee crystal ball, they can back up their opinions with at least some analysis as to how their suggestions meet the criteria.



drj
The best stock to put away for 5 years are stock that you would now not be willing to invest in.
And you don't even have to go back 5 years for proof: Try PDN or ZFX just 3 short years ago.
It's a pure and simple exercise in analytical futility to pick a good growth or dividend stock from present knowledge: You might get a market outperform on a few with a bit of luck.
But to get a stellar outperform you need a supertanker more luck, aided and abetted with a dose of foresight, and a stock that is presently going nowhere fast.


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## doctorj (14 February 2007)

I agree, but the poster wasn't requesting a 10 or 100 bagger.  He wanted a "set and forget"







> Some with good dividends and some with good growth please



So, we're after stocks that are a good balance of growth and income currently who's prospects are solid over the next 5 years - not a lotto ticket.


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 February 2007)

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Gents, lets not turn this into a ramping thread please.
> 
> The criteria is: dividends and/or solid growth. Lets not just make a list of stocks we hold.
> 
> It would also be nice to have a little more info than just the stock code if possible.




Sorry mate, I don't hold PP, but do the all others.

Steady dividends, Nice long term charts, higher highs and higher lows on charts, good economic forecasts, make for my calls above.

Thanks for the wake up call.

Wish I'd bought PPT two years ago.

Garpal


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## Joe Blow (14 February 2007)

Just trying to make sure that people actually put some thought into their response rather than just rattle off a list of stocks that they hold.

Ramping is the easy option, but it's rarely - if ever - the most useful.

As the original post suggested, we are looking for five year set and forget stocks with good dividends and/or solid growth prospects. So with that in mind, suggest away.


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## chops_a_must (14 February 2007)

I'd be looking at energy and biotech sectors. I don't think resource stocks are a smart move right now if you want them for five years.

Energy being both renewables and non-renewables i.e. gas and oil.

Out of the renewables, BBW is the only one I can think of that pays dividends, and pretty good ones too.

AOE and QGC are good gas stocks with massive growth potential, although I favour AOE (seems to have more prospective upside).

Oil stocks... take your pic? Same with biotechs. May want to look at something like CSL or COH, who both pay dividends and also have massive growth potential. Or you may want to have a punt on a speccy like UNI, who have a guaranteed cash flow alongside a very soon to be marketed core product.


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## Knobby22 (14 February 2007)

WPL to me is the safest stock i can think of to set and forget for 5 years.
This is a big ask and many of the stocks mentioned in this thread do not past the test.

It has reasonable growth, good dividends and its market is nor going to disappear. Oil and gas are in fact very likely to increase in price a lot more.

AAC, an agricultural company would be my second pick.

Though Sun, COH and CSL are great companies and appear very safe, you would still need to keep an eye on them. 

I disagree with the other suggestions, you will have to keep an eye on them also and mining and emerging companies (even in energy) doubly so. Telstra is not a gimmee. 

With the financial stocks, there will probably be a downturn over the next 5 years and banks and insurance could be hit hard.


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## Broadside (14 February 2007)

LNG is worth a look if you have a 5 year time horizon, heavyweights on board and on register and a potentially great business model in a true growth area, LNG transportation.  No dividends in forseeable future but next 5 years should see their strategy bear fruit and after that it should boom.  I only hold a few but would like to add to that position if I get the opportunity...I don't see any urgency at the moment and have irons in other fires.


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## TheAbyss (14 February 2007)

I can only nominate 1.

FKP - 

Property investment and development across all facets - Residential, commercial and industrial.

They have funds management via property and equity trusts (property trust has over $200 million in property either owned, under development or committed). Equity trust is a JV with Macquarie and has 3800 retirement units under management in Aus and NZ.

They own and operate more than 5300 retirement units. Current market value of the retirement village property is >$1.1 billion.

Total Assets minus liabilities is $683 million.

In short they are active in aged care, property development and funds management. They are diversified enough in my view to provide a 5 year set and forget option to suit most tastes.

All data taken from their 2006 financial report. I hold FKP.


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## chris bartlett (14 February 2007)

Thank you for your thoughts.Imajica and Garpal AAX could be a new WOR BKN or United  and very strong recently. ALB-no knowledge. AED on the radar of Bell Potter in dec 06.INL local Tasmanian co and has potential if all goes well. BHP,MFS,TLS,NAB,TLS all speak for themselves. Thanks Ken.Any views on COA,BXB,WPL and a small timer GBT?Plan is to put $ into shares for two children for the next 5 years in small amounts.


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## Halba (14 February 2007)

AAX looks like it is getting ahead of itself


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## Knobby22 (14 February 2007)

chris bartlett said:
			
		

> Thank you for your thoughts.Imajica and Garpal AAX could be a new WOR BKN or United  and very strong recently. ALB-no knowledge. AED on the radar of Bell Potter in dec 06.INL local Tasmanian co and has potential if all goes well. BHP,MFS,TLS,NAB,TLS all speak for themselves. Thanks Ken.Any views on COA,BXB,WPL and a small timer GBT?Plan is to put $ into shares for two children for the next 5 years in small amounts.




Telstra doesn't speak , it says Woof!


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (14 February 2007)

Gee this ones not asking much.

Personally if you want to pick a stock, set and forget and 5 years later its a bagger, youve firstly got to do some serious research. My view would be:


Market Place: OK, what commodity is going to be in huge demand in 5 years time in what potential market end user and is the commodity difficult to access, takes significant ramp up time, huge infrastructure and in scarce supply. Take a lesson from the past and factor it into the future of youre chosen commodity. 
And the choice would be OIL and the market would be China and the reason would be a billion Chinese screaming for a buzz box car to get around in  


Now the Chinese aren't silly and they aren't going to get caught out like they did with materials (past few years) and are putting measures in place to guarantee state holdings in JV's within certain demograhic localities, ramping infrasture to refineries yada yada. The mid tiers are the ones they will follow through on, the bigger boys will just be too greedy long term.

So what mid tier oiler has potential to establish consolidation within the Chinese oil exploration marketplace. Well theirs a lot to sift through but IMO the pick of the bunch is ROC.


So the commodity is OIL and the stock would be ROC, now I will just confirm that with my crystal ball


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## Kauri (15 February 2007)

I was going to nominate WPL, but it will probably be a part of BHP well before the 5 years is up..


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## Knobby22 (15 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> I was going to nominate WPL, but it will probably be a part of BHP well before the 5 years is up..




Makes a lot more sense to me than Alcoa.
Only trouble is they used to own a third of WPL and sold out at $2.70, when I bought my first tranche It may be too embarassing to take it over. Secondly I doubt Shell will sell their third.


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## nevieboy (15 February 2007)

chris bartlett said:
			
		

> Any recomendations for  set and forget stocks for the next 5 years? Some with good dividends and some with good growth please.Thankyou.



What about the big four banks and 1 or 2 of the smaller banks.
Dividends are very good, and growth is good. 
Example November 2005
Adelaide Bank $12.77 yesterday $14.44
Anz               $22.96               $29.46
Ben               $11.65               $14.10
Cba               $40.25               $51.35
Nab               $31.59               $41.08
Wbc              $21.56               $25.49


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## stevo (15 February 2007)

I couldn't buy a portfolio and just ignore it for 5 years! Why not assess the portfolio every year and make adjustments based on some sort of criteria.

I have a system that works on a monthly timeframe (ie check it at the end of every month) and have considered a longer time period but 5 years is probably a little longer than I would contemplate.

regards


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## Judd (15 February 2007)

One share that I have been reading about.  ASX Code: STW.  Gets 95% of the market.  Winners go in, losers drop out and $2.30 distribution paid last fin year.  Only cost is brokerage and an the internal cost is 0.29%


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## PJ83 (28 February 2007)

Hmm

ROC (ROC oil) is a goer.

Top no bull-crap management, sensible aquisitions, excellent prospective drilling program and the oil price isn't going anywhere but up over the longer term.

I own shares in ROC


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## AnalysisParalysis (3 March 2007)

How about WOW?

Unless people decide to stop eating etc, this company should stay in business.

I don't hold any, but wish I bought when it was $18 like I was going to.


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## Julia (3 March 2007)

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> Though Sun, COH and CSL are great companies and appear very safe, you would still need to keep an eye on them.
> 
> I disagree with the other suggestions, you will have to keep an eye on them also and mining and emerging companies (even in energy) doubly so. Telstra is not a gimmee.
> 
> .



I don't think there would be any stock which I'd be happy to literally "set and forget" for five years.  Probably the question wasn't asked in a completely literal way.

The nearest I'd go would be Woolworths - but that's on the assumption that some fantastic new competition doesn't come up and diminish their returns -,
the big banks, but again as Knobby has pointed out, you couldn't just not watch them for extended period, either Allco Finance or MBL, a property trust for some growth plus good dividends, and infrastructure, perhaps BBI.
Agree with suggestion of FKP , particularly given their increasing involvement in the retirement industry.

Anyway, lucky kids to have shares bought for them.  Great idea.

Julia


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## 3 veiws of a secret (3 March 2007)

AnalysisParalysis said:
			
		

> How about WOW?
> 
> Unless people decide to stop eating etc, this company should stay in business.
> 
> I don't hold any, but wish I bought when it was $18 like I was going to.




Ahhhh but do we recollect to what happened to Burns Philp in its heyday .....but at least the funeral parlours don't go broke either. Invocare....?


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## justjohn (3 March 2007)

AnalysisParalysis said:
			
		

> How about WOW?
> 
> Unless people decide to stop eating etc, this company should stay in business.
> 
> I don't hold any, but wish I bought when it was $18 like I was going to.



 :iagree: WOW seems to have all bases loaded with there food ,grog & petrol is moving ahead in leaps & bounds .Another retailer going well at present is The Reject Shop (TRS) ,in the last 12 months has gone from $4.75 - $10.35  : DYOR


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## nioka (3 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Gee this ones not asking much.
> 
> Personally if you want to pick a stock, set and forget and 5 years later its a bagger, youve firstly got to do some serious research. My view would be:
> 
> ...



 Agree with the reasoning added India and I came up with AOE (coal seam gas), EDE or TAS ( Hithane) and BLG (semiconductors)
Can you put that to the crystal ball.


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## nizar (3 March 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> drj
> *The best stock to put away for 5 years are stock that you would now not be willing to invest in.*And you don't even have to go back 5 years for proof: Try PDN or ZFX just 3 short years ago.
> It's a pure and simple exercise in analytical futility to pick a good growth or dividend stock from present knowledge: You might get a market outperform on a few with a bit of luck.
> But to get a stellar outperform you need a supertanker more luck, aided and abetted with a dose of foresight, and *a stock that is presently going nowhere fast.*




Exactly spot on.
PDN 3 years ago a nice downtrend.

ZFX floated for $2 and a year later it was still $2.

Now look at them.


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## imajica (3 March 2007)

if AAX is too expensive (P/E of about 30)

WDS is in the same industry and is only on a P/E of 12

has BHP, RIO etc as its clients

looks like a great growth story


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## chris bartlett (9 October 2016)

*Five Year Plan*

From time to time I am able to put some small amounts of cash away for children. Most goes into shares, but my skills as a stock selector are limited. I have punted on SXY MLX MBE SHJ and Tissue Therapies and others, as well as recently GMC. My current thinking is set and forget for growth. What are contributors recommendations for the 5 years ahead? Thank you in advance.


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## skc (9 October 2016)

*Re: Five Year Plan*



chris bartlett said:


> From time to time I am able to put some small amounts of cash away for children. Most goes into shares, but my skills as a stock selector are limited. I have punted on SXY MLX MBE SHJ and Tissue Therapies and others, as well as recently GMC. My current thinking is set and forget for growth. What are contributors recommendations for the 5 years ahead? Thank you in advance.




None of these companies are set and forget type shares... SXY, MLX and GMC are all cyclical commodity companies which have a range of risks (commodity prices, explorations, operations, balance sheet etc) that require ongoing monitoring.

Tissue Therapies is an early stage medical device / drug company... To "set and forget" a company of this nature requires a lot of research and specific knowledge about the IP, the market and the management's competency. One investing (using set and forget) is this field could have picked a range of companies from PXS to SRX and unfortunately TIS turns out to be one very close to the disaster end of the scale. But overall the failure rate of these companies are very high... so if you have a 5 stock portfolio you need to be wary of this fact.

Perhaps set-and-forget isn't always the best strategy. "Set-and-check" might be more appropriate, together with a dose of "set-and-don't-over-react-to-share-price". This can see you ride through the major growth period while weeding out the losers.


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## GlobeTrekker (15 October 2016)

I think the best 'set & forget' stocks have to be Listed Investment Companies (LICs) like AFIC (AFI), Argo (ARG), Milton (MLT) and the like (there's over a hundred of them but these three are the biggest and arguably 'safer' than others).  These companies just buy/own shares in other big companies (like the big 4 banks, Telstra, Wesfarmers, BHP etc) and other smaller companies, so you effectively spread the risk over lots of stocks by owning just a few.  That way you're not exposed to the vagaries of just a couple of stocks in your portfolio.  The bigger LICs tend to follow the ASX200.  There are some more specialised LICs that own shares in overseas companies (PMC, TGG, MFF, PGF) if you want to spread your risk even further.  Alternatively you could just invest in a bunch of ETFs which have a similar effect, spreading the risk.  They're not likely to surge in price, but they're not likely to completely crash and burn either, making them ideal for a 'set & forget' strategy.


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## chris bartlett (8 November 2020)

In 2007 I posed my question. There were recommendations for BHP at $27, now $35 and there were others. They were:
RIO $80 now $94
SUN $20- $8 now
PPT $80-$28 now
NAB $40-$20 now 
WES $45-$47 now

AFI $6.75-$6.75 no change
ARG $8 and the same, no change

SXY $.40-$.32 now 
WPL $40-$19 now

Interesting,  the two big miners gained and the rest were also rans. BHP left WPL alone. I accept most paid dividends, save SXY, now maturing and to shortly pay a dividend. 

It is now a different world with tech shares and EFT’s.

Any fresh ideas for growth and the future, not so much dividends, in the next 5+ years? Please advise your thoughts and recommendations when you have time to reflect.


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## rnr (8 November 2020)

chris bartlett said:


> In 2007 I posed my question. There were recommendations for BHP at $27, now $35 and there were others. They were:
> RIO $80 now $94
> SUN $20- $8 now
> PPT $80-$28 now
> ...




Hi @chris bartlett,

In all fairness, when comparing stocks over a time period of approximately 13 years, it would be reasonable to add to the current price such items as:-
Return of Capital
The spin off of any company stocks via a share issue
Bonus share issues
Share buy-back where applicable.

As an example have a look at WES over that period and see what affect it has had over that time.

Cheers,
Rob


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## Dona Ferentes (8 November 2020)

As they say. ... _*Price;  easy. Value; hard*_.

Your original question was based on 5 years, it's now 13. Since then, GFC and Covid retraces, with 10 year bonds and all debt costs dropping. 

Dividends/ yields ignored, capital raises, dilutions, buybacks ignored. 

Rather than asking for ideas and recommendations, why not look back and see what's still around 13 years on. This may give you an inkling of an idea what may be around in five years time. Otherwise you're just guessing.


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## Chronos-Plutus (8 November 2020)

Trying to look at buying more silver bars from the Perth Mint but nothing is on sale?

Why?


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## finicky (9 November 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Trying to look at buying more silver bars from the Perth Mint but nothing is on sale?
> Why?




In the past this sort of event has just been down to a run in sales depleting inventory or fabrication not keeping up, not some shortage of silver itself.




__





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## Chronos-Plutus (9 November 2020)

finicky said:


> In the past this sort of event has just been down to a run in sales depleting inventory or fabrication not keeping up, not some shortage of silver itself.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




No good, all sold out across Australia.

I hope we get a Universal Basic Income (UBI) now that Biden has been declared the President of the USA. I will use the UBI to buy silver.


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