# CGF - Challenger Limited



## tmallie (20 October 2004)

Hi All,

I have been in CGF for a little while now and they have been steady around 55 and 56 cents but today its up to 59c.......there has been no announcements........anyone knows whats going on???  Is this the start of a good thing???

CGF had a big jump last month from 45c to 55c I am keeping my eye on them


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## tech/a (25 October 2004)

*Re: CGF.....Is this the start????*

CGF appeared on one of my scans when you saw it.
It historically a low volatility stock,pretty conservative
in price movement.
60c is a new recient high and I feel any trading beyond
61c is certaintly a sign of strength.
Could just as easily fall back into its 3 yr range though.
A return to around 55c I would also see as a normal retracement.
Trading below 52C would be seen as week and a stop level for me.

tech


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## tmallie (25 October 2004)

*Re: CGF.....Is this the start????*

I have just bought some more at 58c...............I am going for the long haul with them...........fingers crossed  

TM


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## tmallie (28 October 2004)

*Re: CGF.....Is this the start????*

They're up to 61c again,  I do hope this a sign of strength and good things to come.

TM


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## tmallie (5 November 2004)

*Re: CGF.....Is this the start????*

CGF are talking about consolidating 1:5....does anyone think that this is a good idea????   They have also sold some big property in US and UK. The share price seems to be going up steadily.  Anyone else got their eye on them, I surely am.


TM


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## tmallie (1 February 2005)

*Re: CGF.....Is this the start????*

CGF went up 20c in the last 2 days.  Any comments???


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## Julia (24 September 2005)

*CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

I've been looking at this for a while now.  Stayed flat for many months.
At present, the fundamentals are looking good for buying in.  As everyone knows, I don't have any technical know-how, but looking at a chart from the ASX website, my impression is that it shows the sort of pattern which would make buying attractive?  I might be way offbeam on this.  Would much appreciate any informed comments.

With thanks

Julia


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## tech/a (24 September 2005)

*Re: CGS   Challenger Financial Services Group*

Nice.


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## kerosam (24 September 2005)

*Re: CGS   Challenger Financial Services Group*

babcock and brown was apparently to be the next macquarie bank.... do any of you think CFS has got that potential to be in that league... though MBL is in a league of their own.... CFS seems to be on the same course as MBL buying income producing assets and sellin products.


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## Yippyio (24 September 2005)

*Re: CGS   Challenger Financial Services Group*

BNB has been going very strongly and CGS has performed alot better since Packer got a seat on the board. 

BNB the new MBL ???, the sp is certainly reacting that way. I have done very well from MBL, in the past but it is now getting to expensive to trade the multiples i.e. $ 20 970 on a margin ratio of 70% to buy 1000 shares. 

CGS & BNB could be cheaper alternatives, to MBL as strong investment bank growth stocks with good dividend payout ratios.


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## kerosam (24 September 2005)

*Re: CGS   Challenger Financial Services Group*

asked a friend who works in MBL and know allan moss personally to get an autograph from moss.... hope he delivers.

are there any broker recommendations for CFS? I was looking at it few months ago and thought nah, better value elsewhere. might keep an eye on them again.

bnb, bugga... wanted to get them when there were at about $12 but thought it'll retrace to the $10-ish line. if these major insituation continues their spending spree buying other companies/assets etc, it will just be a matter of time where every sector has a major insituation backing.

anyway, would be buy CFS or should you buy their products?


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## Julia (24 September 2005)

*Re: CGS   Challenger Financial Services Group*

I hope I haven't caused some confusion about this thread.  I've just noticed in the title that the code is printed as "CGS"  It should be CGF.  I must have mistyped it.  Many apologies if I stuffed anyone up.  However, from reading the responses It looks as though everyone has applied their thoughts to Challenger Financial Services Group, "CGF".

Will it be another MBL?  That's what I'm hoping of course.  However, at this early stage such an expectation seems to be a bit unrealistic.  I do think it's worth having a piece of at this stage.

Julia


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## Joe Blow (24 September 2005)

*Re: CGS   Challenger Financial Services Group*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> I hope I haven't caused some confusion about this thread.  I've just noticed in the title that the code is printed as "CGS"  It should be CGF.




Fixed.


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## Julia (24 September 2005)

*Re: CGS   Challenger Financial Services Group*



			
				kerosam said:
			
		

> asked a friend who works in MBL and know allan moss personally to get an autograph from moss.... hope he delivers.
> 
> are there any broker recommendations for CFS? I was looking at it few months ago and thought nah, better value elsewhere. might keep an eye on them again.
> 
> ...



Kerosam,

I would buy the parent company rather than their products.  The purpose of the holding company is to reap the profits from down the line.  Similarly, I'd hold Macquarie Bank rather than any of their subsidiary funds - all of those profits eventually find their way back to MBL.

Re Babcock and Brown:  I've had a disappointing buy into B&B Capital which is still languishing nearly 10% below what I paid.  My expectation was that it would do as well as the original B&B which it certainly hasn't so far.  Would be silly to sell at this stage.  The expectation (hope?) is that once they get some major projects under way the SP should start to move.

I also hold B&B Infrastructure (used to be Prime Infrastructure) which did poorly for a long time, but recently has moved up well, and in addition, pays a very healthy dividend.

Julia


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## kerosam (25 September 2005)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

any tech analysis out there to see it is still good to purchase MBL? i don't hold or intend to buy them. i already thought the bank shares are a bit expensive atm. 

will keep a look out on CFS.


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## Joe Blow (25 September 2005)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



			
				kerosam said:
			
		

> any tech analysis out there to see it is still good to purchase MBL?




Kerosam, we should probably keep all discussion of Macquarie Bank to the current MBL  thread, just to keep things nice and organised.


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## kerosam (25 September 2005)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

sorry joe. will do that.


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## Yippyio (28 September 2005)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

A pretty lack lustre performance by CGF, over the last two days of trade, considering the strong sentiment towards investment banks, specifically MBL & BNB (riding the coat tails)


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## BraceFace (21 March 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

CGF was a popular pick late last year and earlier this year as one of the "stocks to watch" in 2006.
So far, it has been underwhelming, to say the least.
After hovering around the $4.00 for most of the year, CGF has now dropped down to the $3.60's and is definitely trending downward.
Is this because of management changes perhaps?

I'd be interested to hear some opinions on this one if anybody is holding or watching it.
My broker is telling me to get the hell out!! (I think he might be right!)


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## Julia (21 March 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



			
				BraceFace said:
			
		

> CGF was a popular pick late last year and earlier this year as one of the "stocks to watch" in 2006.
> So far, it has been underwhelming, to say the least.
> After hovering around the $4.00 for most of the year, CGF has now dropped down to the $3.60's and is definitely trending downward.
> Is this because of management changes perhaps?
> ...




Braceface:

I'm also holding CGF and have been similarly underwhelmed in its performance.
It doesn't even have the compensation of a good yield.

Could some technical person be kind enough to offer an opinion on this one?

With thanks

Julia


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## Lachlan6 (21 March 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

Hello Julia. Well purely from a technical perspective, CGF is looking a little sick at the moment. What could be interpreted as a double top pattern is looking like possibly unfolding. However, support at $3.55 would need to be broken, before CGF would be a sell. CGF has been a successful stock since listing in 2003, rising from around $2.50, to the all time high of $4.21 in September last year. However, CGF's subsequent fall and rise back up failed to make new ground and break the old highs, a negative for the stock. 

This support at $3.55 is important however for two reasons. The aforementioned one, but also because this is where the long term uptrend line is currently and hence a break of this would signify a start of a down trend. OBV is still holding up on the weekly chart, but for CGF to turn its story around, support needs to hold coupled with a rise to new highs. If I were you, I would be watching the situation very closely, unless you are in for the long haul


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## Julia (21 March 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



			
				Lachlan6 said:
			
		

> Hello Julia. Well purely from a technical perspective, CGF is looking a little sick at the moment. What could be interpreted as a double top pattern is looking like possibly unfolding. However, support at $3.55 would need to be broken, before CGF would be a sell. CGF has been a successful stock since listing in 2003, rising from around $2.50, to the all time high of $4.21 in September last year. However, CGF's subsequent fall and rise back up failed to make new ground and break the old highs, a negative for the stock.
> 
> This support at $3.55 is important however for two reasons. The aforementioned one, but also because this is where the long term uptrend line is currently and hence a break of this would signify a start of a down trend. OBV is still holding up on the weekly chart, but for CGF to turn its story around, support needs to hold coupled with a rise to new highs. If I were you, I would be watching the situation very closely, unless you are in for the long haul




Hello Lachlan,

Thank you.  Appreciate your comments.

Julia


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## GreatPig (26 March 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

A current chart for CGF.

It's had good growth from Sept 04 to Sept 05 but has been flat since then, from a long-term hold point of view.

It currently seems to be finding support around $3.60, and I think if I was holding the stock right now, my sell point would be just below that. However, even if it didn't fall below that, I would want it to start heading up again soon, otherwise my money would be better utilised elsewhere.

Not falling is one thing, but there's also the opportunity cost to consider.

Cheers,
GP


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## Julia (26 March 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> A current chart for CGF.
> 
> It's had good growth from Sept 04 to Sept 05 but has been flat since then, from a long-term hold point of view.
> 
> ...




GP

"but there's also the opportunity cost to consider"
Yes, indeed.

My apologies.  I hadn't realised there was a CGF thread so I included comment on it within the current GTP discussion.

Thanks again for your input.

Cjeers
Julia


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## Lachlan6 (1 April 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

Bad day today for CGF. It has fallen through crucial support and may now be open to a good CFD short trade. I'm opening my account on Monday with FP Markets so may just do so. As I said in my last post re CGF, next support is 50% retracement at around $3.15.


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## Julia (1 April 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

Sold this 28.3.06.

Julia


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## BraceFace (3 April 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Sold this 28.3.06.
> 
> Julia



Ditto, once got to 3.50 it was time to bail.
Not looking too good at the moment.
Time to channel funds into resources sector methinks...


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## marc1 (20 November 2006)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

good morning all
Does anyone have any interest or hold cgf ?
At last, some price and volume movement in the right direction last week.
Would appreciate any tech thoughts on the stock or general comments.
Holding at moment 6.5k @ $3.25.
cheers a newie.


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## theasxgorilla (26 February 2007)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

My "law of inverse interest" is working well for CGF.  30% in 3 1/2 months from an ASXMidcap50 and still no posts since November last year, keep it up  

Anybody know WTF happened this morning???


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## kooka873 (24 May 2007)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

Yes all quiet on this one, but SP doing nicely - my patience of the past 5 years is now justified - finally. I expect Mike Tilley will be handsomely rewarded to with bonus as a result of SP rises. Well known defence lawyer Mr Murphy was pushing the positive aspects of the company at the 2005 AGM & bagging the critics.

Kooka


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## mrgroundwork (23 February 2008)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

anyone still holding this... i got margin called out of my position back in august 07 on this... hurt like hell at the time, but considering current SP it was a blessing in disguise... 

anyone explain to me why this has copped such a battering aside from the obvious (ie sentiment towards the sector)


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## agro (26 March 2008)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



mrgroundwork said:


> anyone still holding this... i got margin called out of my position back in august 07 on this... hurt like hell at the time, but considering current SP it was a blessing in disguise...
> 
> anyone explain to me why this has copped such a battering aside from the obvious (ie sentiment towards the sector)




this is old news (10/03/08) but thought i might paint the picture for fellow members:

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Cardiac Jolt Pty Ltd., which is linked to Sydney lawyer Chris Murphy, said Monday it has sold 15 million shares in Challenger Financial Services Group Ltd. for A$25.5 million.

Traders said there was speculation that existing Challenger shareholder and director James Packer may have bought the shares. Packer already holds a 20.6% stake in Challenger, through his private investment vehicle, Consolidated Press Holdings. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. is Challenger's second-largest shareholder, with a 6.4% stake.

A spokesman for Consolidated Press Holdings was not available for comment.

Speculation that Packer had increased his holding, and short-covering boosted Challenger Financial shares, traders said.

At 0255 GMT, Challenger Financial was up 16.3% at A$1.86.

"That's why the stock's running, because people think Packer's throwing some money at it," said Goldman Sachs JBWere senior institutional trader Patrick Crabb.

A Challenger Financial spokeswoman declined to comment.

The Australian newspaper reported on its Website that Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ.AU) exercised a margin call on Murphy's shares at A$2.50 a share. A spokesman for ANZ declined to comment and Murphy was not available for comment.

Prior to the share sale, Cardiac Jolt owned 28.6 million shares, according to Iress. The share sale notice sent to the Australian Securities Exchange by Cardiac Jolt was signed by Chris Murphy.


-By Lyndal McFarland, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-2-8235-2957; lyndal.mcfarland@dowjones.com


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## mrgroundwork (26 March 2008)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

yeah i figured something like that would be the case... has probably been hit by th3e short sellers too... just suprising that this shares fall from grace hasn't received anywhere near as much publicity as all the other financials...


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## agro (28 March 2008)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

i sold... at a loss why did i get into the financial sectors knowing whats going on atm!! 

never the less..

after i sold hugggggggge selling

3 million seller at 2.00!!! whoa 

next allco maybe?


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## rhen (10 August 2008)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

The OBV (with MA) is positive.
First appearance of a technical buy (for me at least) occurred earlier (in July). It may be developing a positive trend from its "bottom"?? in March...certainly a simple view of volume shows positive interest may be returning. Other indicators I've used confirm a *short* term trend may be in place.
I do not own any CGF...but this may change.

rhen


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## Glen48 (20 December 2008)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

My Mother has some loot with challenger and ideas on what she should do?
Leave it there take out some take out all of it???


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## willemrt (16 February 2009)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



Glen48 said:


> My Mother has some loot with challenger and ideas on what she should do?
> Leave it there take out some take out all of it???




Well, they turned a profit in this environment!

http://www.moneymanagement.com.au/article/Challenger-still-in-black/438155.aspx


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## Prospector (16 February 2009)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



willemrt said:


> Well, they turned a profit in this environment!
> 
> http://www.moneymanagement.com.au/article/Challenger-still-in-black/438155.aspx




That's because their interest rates on mortgages are now much higher than the Banks, and they take weeks longer to implement the rate reductions.  I have two mortgages for an Investment Property with Challenger, I have now refinanced with NAB because they are now so much more competitive.  So in the long term their customers might disappear as people move towards the banks.


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## So_Cynical (15 June 2010)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

The CGF share price seems to be on a bit of a downer lately, even though the 1 year chart don't actually look that bad :dunno:there seems to be alot of interest around the 3.50 mark so maybe im seeing things...and the down turn is just general negative market sentiment for the financial's.

Anyone have an opinion..anyone following CGF
~


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## Boggo (16 June 2010)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*



So_Cynical said:


> Anyone have an opinion..anyone following CGF
> ~




I don't have an opinion as such other than it seems to be at a significant point at the moment and has popped up in my ABC scans over the last few days.

From this type of charting perspective it looks good IMO.

(click to expand)


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## chrisalex (7 July 2010)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Financial Services Group*

This may be a little encouragement. My Father-in-Law has held CGF for as least 12 years, probably longer, even in tough times they have still paid dividends and been very consistent. For security, you could do a lot worse. I'm a bit of a gambler, prefer the volatility of Materials.    Chrisalex


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## DB008 (5 January 2013)

Got in on this one recently.

Only doing this one as a short-term trade, not a long term super holding, my opinion only.

Up ~8% since l purchased around 1 month ago.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 January 2013)

DB008 said:


> Got in on this one recently.
> 
> Only doing this one as a short-term trade, not a long term super holding, my opinion only.
> 
> Up ~8% since l purchased around 1 month ago.




If it goes over $4.00 I would enter,

It is still in a downtrend but showing support. It could go to crap, but if it goes above $4.00 I would be more hopeful.

A monthly chart over 5 years.







gg


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## DB008 (12 April 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If it goes over $4.00 I would enter,
> 
> It is still in a downtrend but showing support. It could go to crap, but if it goes above $4.00 I would be more hopeful.
> 
> gg





How did you go GG?

Up over $4.20 with a high of $4.25 the other day. Glad I got in around the $3.25 mark. My mentor snatched a few million in the $2.99 area.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2013)

DB008 said:


> How did you go GG?
> 
> Up over $4.20 with a high of $4.25 the other day. Glad I got in around the $3.25 mark. My mentor snatched a few million in the $2.99 area.




I missed it mate.

gg


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## piggybank (6 January 2014)




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## AussieAustrian (9 August 2014)

*CGF - Challenger Bank*

His is the website about Brian Benari (CEO) that Challenger Bank tried to take down
http://www.challenger-info.com/

Do your own due diligence


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## AussieAustrian (9 August 2014)

Today's Australian article on Brian Benari allegations of dishonesty.

Perhaps this .......
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...p-butler-website/story-fn91v9q3-1227018472633

http://commbankdiaries.com.au/2014/08/challenger-decision-references-cba-scandal/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiALPDN7qsA

explains this .......
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ends-share-sales/story-fn91v9q3-1226871377724


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## qldfrog (9 August 2014)

*Re: CGF - Challenger Bank*

Joe can this be moved to the CGF proper thread:CGF - Challenger Limited ?
Many thanks


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## notting (20 February 2015)

No supply.
But I am looking forward to giving it some, when the delusion is realized.


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## peter2 (13 March 2015)

It seems that I'm following you around notting and I might buy what you're selling. If others do it first.


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## luvbhatnagar (20 November 2015)

Anyone knows whats causing the volatility with this one over the last few days?


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## skyQuake (20 November 2015)

luvbhatnagar said:


> Anyone knows whats causing the volatility with this one over the last few days?




Today cut to neutral from outperform by Macq, PT raised 13% to $9.03

Presented to UBS aus conference earlier this week

Added to MSCI Small cap (30th Nov)


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## luvbhatnagar (20 January 2016)

Anyone know whats happening with Challenger?  Horrendous start to 2016 (almost 7% down today alone!) - the company fundamentals still seem sound.  My guess is this in part a correction for the run over 2015 but still mental ...


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## Tightwad (20 January 2016)

getting lumped in with banks maybe, anz and cba down.  wouldnt read much into it


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## skc (20 January 2016)

luvbhatnagar said:


> Anyone know whats happening with Challenger?  Horrendous start to 2016 (almost 7% down today alone!) - the company fundamentals still seem sound.  My guess is this in part a correction for the run over 2015 but still mental ...






Tightwad said:


> getting lumped in with banks maybe, anz and cba down.  wouldnt read much into it




Downgrade by JP Morgan today. See a few post back how a Macquarie downgrade jolted it for a short period. The overall market weakness doesn't help, obviously.


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## peter2 (20 January 2016)

I sincerely hope that the Aussie market is not going to take notice of broker re-ratings like the US markets. 

CGF was good to me last year and I was waiting for its next buy signal. The CGF chart was showing a nice symmetrical abc correction right into the ambush buy zone (50-61.8% pullback level) and I was getting itchy fingers to buy some. Today's unusual price action will make me wait now for a HL to form.


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## luvbhatnagar (20 January 2016)

Great thanks.  Don't have access to the JP Morgan report - out of interest what was the rationale?  Would have thought if anything there is upside given the results of the FS inquiry (which wasn't that long ago!) and they definitely dominate the annuity market in Australia.  Outside of the recent market fluctuations + some potential correction for the run over 2015 wondering what the drivers are ...


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## luvbhatnagar (21 January 2016)

And the selling continues ... hmm will be interesting to see what comes out when they provide an earnings update in Feb.


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## skc (18 February 2016)

This stock has been volatile of late... I guess much of it was due to the massive volatility of the underlying instruments invested by CGF?

Now, my understanding of annuity is that, the investor pay a lump sum of money, CGF _guarantees _a certain return over a fixed period (or for lifetime products, over the life expectancy). Obviously money doesn't grow on trees, so CGF needs to invest the money in various asset classes. And if there's a shortfall in the investment returns vs the guaranteed return, CGF will need to make up the difference.

It smells like there is a big fat tail risk in this. Is anyone here willing to share what is a potential Armageddon scenario for CGF? Is the Government right in pushing retirees into annuity products, when the guarantee return is actually only guaranteed to the extent of CGF's credit worthiness?


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## kermit345 (22 February 2016)

Hi skc,

Haven't posted in these parts in a long time but took an interest at your post given I've been invested in CGF previously and we use their products in our financial planning office. Annuities can be structured in a few different ways but basically you put $x amount in, and you can choose the period of time to receive payments and whether there is any residual at the end of that time. So you might have a 5 year annuity starting with $100,000 and finishing with $0 receiving payments monthly with no indexation of payments. I just quickly ran a quote based on this setup and the payment was $1,795 a month with an earnings rate of approximately 3.00%.

This earnings rate is pretty typical of annuities at the moment and so you can see they don't have to invest the money very aggressively to earn the amount required to pay the annuity and still make a nice margin on the annuity for themselves. And because everything is fixed when the annuity is put in place they can easily manage their risk levels etc based on performance of their investments.

As you say if there is a shortfall they would need to make up said shortfall themselves however given they run the funds management section of the business as well as making a decent margin on the annuities historically I don't think they'd struggle too much to meet the annuity payments in these down markets. 

My original thesis for investing in CGF was the aging population which has less tolerance for risk following the GFC and the benefits of having a funds management arm that will likely steadily increase as people are required to receive 9.5% SGC each year anyway. I sold my holding after making a decent gain thinking they were starting to get a little overvalued and that was when they were around $6.50 just a year or so ago and it seems I was wrong. I still think my investment thesis stands but whether they are value or not at the current price is another question.


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## skc (10 March 2016)

kermit345 said:


> Hi skc,
> 
> Haven't posted in these parts in a long time but took an interest at your post given I've been invested in CGF previously and we use their products in our financial planning office. Annuities can be structured in a few different ways but basically you put $x amount in, and you can choose the period of time to receive payments and whether there is any residual at the end of that time. So you might have a 5 year annuity starting with $100,000 and finishing with $0 receiving payments monthly with no indexation of payments. I just quickly ran a quote based on this setup and the payment was $1,795 a month with an earnings rate of approximately 3.00%.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the information and insight. I read your post soon after you posted, didn't have the time to post an intelligent response.

I guess what I am thinking is that... to generate any return, there has to be risks (given we are in the negative rates era). Even a 3% guaranteed return for the next 25 years is hard to achieve without risks. It will most certainly involve credit risks, currency risks and counterparty risks. The question of course is what a "blow up" scenario looks like and how (or if) one should discount for that...


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## greggles (3 May 2018)

Dividend darling Challenger Limited has copped a flogging in 2018, sold down from $14.25 to $10.50 in the space of four months. However, the pain now appears to be at an end with a solid bounce back over the last week.

It gapped up nicely this morning with yesterday's price action setting the stage for today.


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## mcgrath111 (1 December 2018)

CGF down to 9.50 at last close, can't see any recent news as to what might explain the downtrend? Is it just mimicking the ASX 200?


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## Miner (23 January 2019)

mcgrath111 said:


> CGF down to 9.50 at last close, can't see any recent news as to what might explain the downtrend? Is it just mimicking the ASX 200?



Astrologers @mcgrath111 and @greggles 
Good morning and your fear has come to truth unfortunately with market announcement and punishment by market. Probably it will be more severe once people get more panicked with rest of market
DNH


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## bigdog (23 January 2019)

23/01/2019 9:18:11 AM * Earnings and guidance update

Share price crash today follow ASX ann below*
According to the release, the company expects to report a normalised net profit before tax of $270 million and a normalised net profit after tax of $200 million for the first half of FY 2019. This will be a 1.8% and 3.8% decline, respectively, on the prior corresponding period*.
*
Management advised that its first half earnings have been impacted by increased market volatility during the half. This includes lower cash distributions on Life’s absolute return portfolio, which was $13 million lower than the prior corresponding period.

In addition to this, the company experienced a $4 million decline in Funds Management performance fees compared to the same period last year.

On a statutory basis its result looks much worse as it includes valuation movements on assets and liabilities supporting the Life business, which results in investment experience.

Challenger expects to report a first half investment experience of negative $194 million (after tax), resulting in a statutory net profit after tax of just $6 million.
*














*


----------



## mcgrath111 (23 January 2019)

Shorts did there homework.
Could be seeing a close under $8.


----------



## So_Cynical (23 January 2019)

7 something now - back to where i wanted to buy it 4 or 5 years ago, prob should be buying this.


----------



## Miner (23 January 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> 7 something now - back to where i wanted to buy it 4 or 5 years ago, prob should be buying this.



 
It is still just below $8. Was $7.7 the lowest in the morning.
Generally market is down so that could have added to CGF.
Would you now buy it at $7.9?


----------



## So_Cynical (23 January 2019)

Miner said:


> It is still just below $8. Was $7.7 the lowest in the morning.
> Generally market is down so that could have added to CGF.
> Would you now buy it at $7.9?




Thinking about it - IOOF has gone up steadily since that one bad day. 4.28 to 5.38 over about 7 weeks.


----------



## tinhat (23 January 2019)

I've had CGF on my watch list for a while now so I bought a small parcel today.


----------



## Miner (23 January 2019)

Partners in crime @tinhat and @So_Cynical .
I did not want to wait too long and bought a small parcel of CGF just now.


----------



## So_Cynical (23 January 2019)

Ok ill put a low ball buy order in and see if i get filled tomorrow.


----------



## mcgrath111 (23 January 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Thinking about it - IOOF has gone up steadily since that one bad day. 4.28 to 5.38 over about 7 weeks.



Agreed, yet CGF is far stronger on fundamentals.

Think you may get your order filled, some big orders went through at closing.


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## So_Cynical (23 January 2019)

mcgrath111 said:


> Agreed, yet CGF is far stronger on fundamentals.
> 
> Think you may get your order filled, some big orders went through at closing.




IOOF was and perhaps still is bleeding FUM, CGF is just having a bad year same as all the other managers, can an annuity be cancelled or handed back? i wouldn't of thought so but dont know.


----------



## tinhat (23 January 2019)

Miner said:


> Partners in crime @tinhat and @So_Cynical .
> I did not want to wait too long and bought a small parcel of CGF just now.




This share could easily drop into sub $7

I want to repeat that I bought a small holding today. I aim to hold shares for the medium term and I add to and cull holdings as needed. In the past few days I have sold out of IRI and CGC, both at profit.







All cool but I would absolutely hate to be even remotely seen as a part of any sort of sentiment. I'm just an anonymous fool in a hat.

Buying a falling knife right now is fraught with risk.

Each to their own. As a disclaimer, I run three portfolios, one for my mum which is in pension mode, so most of the shares I manage are for dividend. Also, I invest according to the thesis that the return from owning shares in the bank is superior to holding deposits with the bank, but that carries risk. Long story short, I am probably happier to carry more risk than others. Not because I am managing more money than most (far from it) but because of this God-damned hat.


----------



## Miner (24 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> This share could easily drop into sub $7
> 
> I want to repeat that I bought a small holding today. I aim to hold shares for the medium term and I add to and cull holdings as needed. In the past few days I have sold out of IRI and CGC, both at profit.
> 
> ...




Mate @tinhat
If I am reading between lines, rest assured my decision to buy a small parcel today was not driven by your decision. It was a pun to say partners in crime.
Ironically I put another parcel at the lowest price it closed today thinking it will not achieve but that was also bought and shares would most likely to fall more tomorrow. Technically CGF though was recommended by few brokers, would get a southface warning from today's fall (and tomorrow). Brokers can only predict as they are told and as they want to manipulate the market.
When I reviewed some of the substantial holder purchases by CGF was sour. We may ask the question these companies are also driven by so-called professionals who also have lots of tools, research and how come they make mistakes? That is the game unfortunately and otherwise, everyone would have made money.
I would be watching on CGF to re-enter into more opportunities taking my emotion out of it.
On the hindsight, I was to enter into at $8+ figure because one so-called financial expert broker advised me to BUY but I stayed away until today. I always considered CGF has fundamentals right and I will never able to predict the bottom most price.  It is within ASX 200 so surely the financial institutions will buy and keep it alive if not immediately but in this financial year for sure. 
So enjoy the market tomorrow once again, we all do our own risks and decisions.


----------



## tinhat (24 January 2019)

Miner said:


> Mate @tinhat
> If I am reading between lines, rest assured my decision to buy a small parcel today was not driven by your decision. It was a pun to say partners in crime.
> Ironically I put another parcel at the lowest price it closed today thinking it will not achieve but that was also bought and shares would most likely to fall more tomorrow. Technically CGF though was recommended by few brokers, would get a southface warning from today's fall (and tomorrow). Brokers can only predict as they are told and as they want to manipulate the market.
> When I reviewed some of the substantial holder purchases by CGF was sour. We may ask the question these companies are also driven by so-called professionals who also have lots of tools, research and how come they make mistakes? That is the game unfortunately and otherwise, everyone would have made money.
> ...




 Hi @Miner

I have been reading your posts here for some time. I am just mindful about people reading the last few posts about this stock and thinking that this is a buy in the current sentiment not understanding the downside risk. As I said above all cool.

My aim is to hold stocks for the long term but I find that hard to do. Essentially annuities are all about charging a premium to the depositor for taking on the risk of a fixed rate of return. Assuming that the business is being managed well, that is the side of the ledger I want to be on understanding that the ride will be bumpy.


----------



## Miner (24 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> Hi @Miner
> 
> I have been reading your posts here for some time. I am just mindful about people reading the last few posts about this stock and thinking that this is a buy in the current sentiment not understanding the downside risk. As I said above all cool.
> 
> My aim is to hold stocks for the long term but I find that hard to do. Essentially annuities are all about charging a premium to the depositor for taking on the risk of a fixed rate of return. Assuming that the business is being managed well, that is the side of the ledger I want to be on understanding that the ride will be bumpy.



Hello @tinhat
I am listening to what you are trying to convey and value your concerns.
People who are reading this and other threads are all sensible people.
This is a free website and no one puts recommendation here excepting sharing their own research and comments.
So I am not worried if someone makes a judgment on them. Yes, if someone tries to ramp up or down a stock that will be in my opinion totally unethical and against the intent of this lovely forum. I really like this forum.
Now, look at those paid newsletters. Share Advisor of MF - has not scored positive more than 10% of their recommendations in the 2018 calendar year. They charge a fortune among some 12 different newsletters. No one complains there even if MF clearly says buy this and that. So why should people complain here?  HC gets all goss and they have thousands of followers.
On the contrary, many of the posters in ASF are bloody intelligent and smart. They share their knowledge freely for a broader community and most of the times excepting a like comment, many of us do not even thank them.
So I would not make any drama on our postings so long our intention is right and transparent as well as seen to be transparent and honest.
As far as my postings on this thread are concerned, they were my thoughts and comments with sounding from others either for or against. I consider you did the same on CGF. Sometimes I do PM to some of the stalwarts. They are always nice to share their thoughts and I learn from their thoughts shared through PM as well as on this forum. I am greatly thankful to them without any caveat.
So - let us move and no stress.
Sorry folks to digress from CGF. But  I thought it is important to share our intent openly so that anyone on the sideline must not read between the lines.
I will take a break from the CGF   thread until 27 Jan. For any comments, PM is welcome.
Cheers
disclaimer - holding CGF  from today with the intent to hold for 12 months unless it goes below my stop loss target.


----------



## So_Cynical (24 January 2019)

Essentially Challenger is a fund manager with a difference, the difference being product, an annuity is more like a contract or commitment - a kind of promise like insurance, i imagine that annuity money is stickier than FUM for a normal manger like Platinum etc.

Their customers are different too because they are all pretty much retirees that need retirement income.



			
				https://www.challenger.com.au/personal/products/lifetime-annuities said:
			
		

> If you would like to *cancel* your *annuity*, in most cases you *will* receive a return of your investment but you may receive back less than you invested originally and less than you would have received had you held the *annuity* for its agreed term.


----------



## So_Cynical (24 January 2019)

Miner said:


> Now, look at those paid newsletters. Share Advisor of MF - has not scored positive more than 10% of their recommendations in the 2018 calendar year. They charge a fortune among some 12 different newsletters. No one complains there even if MF clearly says buy this and that. So why should people complain here?  HC gets all goss and they have thousands of followers.




Bell Potter our preferred stocks for calendar 2019: Challenger is one of the 10 picks, experts get it wrong all the time..

https://www.belldirect.com.au/smart...ell_Potter_End_of_Quarter_Review_Dec_2018.pdf


----------



## So_Cynical (30 January 2019)

$7.20 is the bottom so far and today is 1 week since the big fall - is the bottom in?


----------



## tinhat (30 January 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> $7.20 is the bottom so far and today is 1 week since the big fall - is the bottom in?




I suggest that there is absolutely no way to tell from the chart that the bottom is in. Volume is still relatively high so this stock may be in accumulation.

[edit] I have been accumulating.


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## So_Cynical (7 February 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> $7.20 is the bottom so far and today is 1 week since the big fall - is the bottom in?






tinhat said:


> I suggest that there is absolutely no way to tell from the chart that the bottom is in. Volume is still relatively high so this stock may be in accumulation.



 Higher highs and lower lows on falling volume, the bottom is certainly in for now with the BRC uncertainty lifted, will crack 8 dollars early next week i would think.
~


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## Miner (17 April 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Higher highs and lower lows on falling volume, the bottom is certainly in for now with the BRC uncertainty lifted, will crack 8 dollars early next week i would think.
> ~
> View attachment 91996



SC and all
Good morning on this thread.
I could  be 'cynical' today to make a speculation that CGF would see the bottom today after closure of market after publishing this report
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190417/pdf/444csnv0vb7b5p.pdf
I would be pleasantly surprised to see the price going north.
Have a nice day.
disclaimer : a holder and having patience tested on CGF at the moment


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## So_Cynical (18 April 2019)

Patience is a virtue, the SP has gone thru $8 a few times and retreated down again and got close too but not tested the $7.20 low, still would only take one
or 2  bad days to see that happen, long term the fundamentals are good, it will take a while to work thru the current advise industry problems, FF dividend
yield of around 4.4% better than a bank TD easy, little risk at this price i would think.
~


----------



## JTLP (14 June 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Patience is a virtue, the SP has gone thru $8 a few times and retreated down again and got close too but not tested the $7.20 low, still would only take one
> or 2  bad days to see that happen, long term the fundamentals are good, it will take a while to work thru the current advise industry problems, FF dividend
> yield of around 4.4% better than a bank TD easy, little risk at this price i would think.
> ~
> View attachment 93895




Does it get better for you now it’s in the $6s? The interest rate headwinds and that revenue drop, coupled with what looks like a smaller dividend isn’t looking too favorable. 

Thoughts?


----------



## Miner (14 June 2019)

JTLP said:


> Does it get better for you now it’s in the $6s? The interest rate headwinds and that revenue drop, coupled with what looks like a smaller dividend isn’t looking too favorable.
> 
> Thoughts?



Shaw Wallace declared CGF a sell.  One can argue why they did not say yesterday  ? Common sense prevails to assume first the exited their own fund, then advised their sophisticated investors and finally en masse to slide the market.
Bell Potters and rest of the broker community also declare sale.
Unfortunately I coughed my stop loss and exited.
My gut feeling the Norwegian exit will also drive lot many fundies share prices just on news as well EOFY. That should give opportunity to pick up some good stocks at depressed price.


----------



## JTLP (14 June 2019)

Miner said:


> Shaw Wallace declared CGF a sell.  One can argue why they did not say yesterday  ? Common sense prevails to assume first the exited their own fund, then advised their sophisticated investors and finally en masse to slide the market.
> Bell Potters and rest of the broker community also declare sale.
> Unfortunately I coughed my stop loss and exited.
> My gut feeling the Norwegian exit will also drive lot many fundies share prices just on news as well EOFY. That should give opportunity to pick up some good stocks at depressed price.




We’ll see. This has been quite a ride since the GFC - I’m sure there will be value at some stage. I remember thinking the annuity business would be tough in a low growth environment though...


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## kahuna1 (14 June 2019)

Hmmm ....

well the update was not great. Its been written on the wall the difficulties it has been under for some time.
It is NOT worthless despite the current spate of selling.
It makes money, just not as much a growth story as it once was thought to be.
Retirement and annuity funds are a much needed tool with longer life expectancy.

That said, I don't think their dividend is too much under threat. Much like my views on banks pre election. One hand the 7% dividend there unlikely to grow over time and ... well say under $25 for some a couple of times it was a buy and feeling like a bank teller with all the financials and magic rallies of 10% .... only to be hit with reality as we are seeing now. Banks well off highs and new capital requirements the latest impost. Suspect we revisit those old lows .

CGF, whilst the absurd strong buy calls and targets of $12 now replaced with 8-9 ones. The share price obviously has had a cow at $6.50 as though the world has ended. We seem to be seeing this with a lot of stocks from AGL going maybe we buy a telco for 20% of market cap and shedding 10% in the blink of an eye MORE than the bloody thing would cost. WES another doing much the same with the Lynas deal which by the way would have been brilliant had they done it given the uncertainty over those minerals and the price shed for a massive company 20%  to absurd levels only to rally as they gave out a massive bonus to now .... Retail side and even Bunnings sales not so hot. Again suspect they revist the $32- levels .... irrespective of the ASX.

CGF as opposed to banks has a brighter long term outlook for profits as its product is so niche and specialized and likely in more and more demand all be it slowly, they eventually will get their game sorted. So ... for me ...  its much like some other absurd price flops a BUY down here and lower.

SGR similar, Star Casino and whilst a love rally as Packer seemed to sell well above market, only to fall through, casinos are if decently run hard to loose on. Trump did but was so stupid and leveraged as well as a crook they failed. Something worth $5.50 absurdly 12 months ago but above $4.50 at $3.60 low is ignoring all else, eventually as your paid a decent dividend becoming cheap.

CGF ... well at $5.60 a 5.4% yield and fully franked. Things obviously not so good and they can only improve. I note for most of the stocks mentioned above CBA and Now perpetual announcing its sold out.

Nothing like taking your loss.
Not sure ... they are correct.
I own and will slowly add as I did with say APA as it was shredded 15% to $8.50 and now is at $11=

Levels ... and risk size small given the current state of affairs there. Not trading, its longer term for better or worse. Bigger holds if I should be so lucky to get re-entry into say some banks I lightened up upon of late. As for APA I have reduced and taken most off the table with a mere core token holding.

Take care


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## So_Cynical (15 June 2019)

JTLP said:


> Does it get better for you now it’s in the $6s? The interest rate headwinds and that revenue drop, coupled with what looks like a smaller dividend isn’t looking too favorable.
> 
> Thoughts?




I wasn't actually bullish before just not bearish/negative, broadly i think the whole market has started to seriously price in a recession, sentiment has turned a bit, with Challenger
perhaps some people are looking at industry super funds pension phase as a kind of annuity, many stocks falling.


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## tinhat (10 July 2019)

I got out on 13 June at $7.044 average price. No point owning a share with negative earnings growth, forecast negative earnings growth and that has lost market sentiment.


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## So_Cynical (11 July 2019)

Bounced off the bottom of 2 weeks ago, they also have a newish listed (managed) Bond Fund (XARO) that is core to their Annuity business - AMP 
and IOOF were a big sales channel for their annuity's though not so much any more, i expect a big splashy new ad campaign, they should get stuck 
into the SMSF and direct retail sales channel.


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## Boggo (18 December 2019)

Regardless of all the fundamentals when my system says buy and it passes the "eyeball" test then I buy.
Going the right way so far.

(click to expand)


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## Boggo (11 January 2020)

Amazing. Three separate letters from Computershare in my post box re CGF.
(happens with every purchase as you all know !)

One is an ASX Chess holding statement, one a confirmation of my email address and another confirming my banking details. You would think that they could at least put them all in one envelope !

Who is paying for all of this outdated nonsense ?


----------



## Miner (12 January 2020)

Boggo said:


> Amazing. Three separate letters from Computershare in my post box re CGF.
> (happens with every purchase as you all know !)
> 
> One is an ASX Chess holding statement, one a confirmation of my email address and another confirming my banking details. You would think that they could at least put them all in one envelope !
> ...



@Boggo - I believe clever automated software with no cost to the sender but costing the readers to read multiple messages. 
Outside Computershare like companies I got messages from Qantas to remind of my boarding time for flights to be departed and then again saying flights have departed - whereas the fact was the flight was cancelled due to Newman airport damage. Once again the cost of the anxiety of such messages lies on the reader. I am now buying pink salt and lemon pickle on such messages


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## Boggo (11 February 2020)

Follow on from #94 above.

It's busted through the expected resistance at $9 and is on it's way to the next level.
It may spend a bit of time at or between the next two decision making lines.

There will be some profit takers along the way but the report sounds positive for the long term.

(click to expand)


----------



## bigdog (11 February 2020)

ASX announcements today included "1H20 results" (uploaded) and SP up 12.68% and hit 12 month high today
















Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Richard Howes said Challenger is on track to achieve 2020 full year normalised net profit before tax around the top end of its guidance range of $500 million to $550 million.

Outlook
Challenger remains well positioned to optimise performance while also positioning for future growth. FY20 normalised net profit before tax is expected to be around the top end of Challenger’s guidance range of $500 million to $550 million.

Challenger is also on track to achieve its normalised return on equity target of the RBA cash rate plus a margin of 14%.

The full year dividend is expected to remain unchanged from FY19 at 35.5 cents per share, which is above the target dividend payout ratio of 45% to 50% of normalised net profit after tax, reflecting Challenger’s strong capital position and confidence in future growth.

250


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## So_Cynical (11 February 2020)

Time passes and the market comes around, under $7.50 was the buy zone, i loaded up and i'm looking sweet, i waited 5 years to buy this stock.
~


----------



## So_Cynical (13 March 2020)

Incredible VFC induced price action today,  Low 5.38 ~ High 6.27


----------



## JTLP (15 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Incredible VFC induced price action today,  Low 5.38 ~ High 6.27




You been buying more? You said you waited 5 years and it got even cheaper...


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## So_Cynical (16 March 2020)

JTLP said:


> You been buying more? You said you waited 5 years and it got even cheaper...



Everything got cheaper - i would of bought more at under 5.50 but it only traded there for a couple of hours on Friday, other 
than that CGF is trading where it was in July/Sept 2019, so not crazy cheap at the moment compared to other stocks.


----------



## JTLP (16 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Everything got cheaper - i would of bought more at under 5.50 but it only traded there for a couple of hours on Friday, other
> than that CGF is trading where it was in July/Sept 2019, so not crazy cheap at the moment compared to other stocks.




What else do you have your eye on? Agree everything got “cheaper” but what is fair?


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## Dona Ferentes (16 March 2020)

Annuities provider and funds management group Challenger has warned its statutory profit will be impacted as rising credit spreads impact the fair value of the assets on its balance sheet.

According to the group the Covid-19 panic over the creditworthiness of certain borrowers has seen the spreads on investment grade fixed income debt more than triple to 140 basis points as investors dump riskier high-yielding debt for the safety of investment grade treasuries.

Management reported normalised earnings that largely exclude rises or falls in the valuation of assets on its balance sheet (alongside swings in mark--to-market investment gains and losses) are still expected to be in the range of $500 million to $550 million over the full year.


> Chief Executive Officer, Richard Howes said: “Challenger is well placed to manage through the current market volatility. We have a strong capital position, a robust risk management approach, an experienced team and an excellent track record of delivering for our customers, shareholders and employees."




_- yeah, but the markets have gone against you. All the platitudes in the world, but what happens when 'normalised' is redefined_


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## mikeroxoz (16 March 2020)

Down 17.32% today...$5.49 close


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## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

Annuities would be a scary thing to be underwriting at the moment. IMO


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## So_Cynical (17 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Annuities would be a scary thing to be underwriting at the moment. IMO



There must be an out for Challenger? surely there is a mechanism for them to reduce the payout on annuities? the Challenger 
listed bond fund XARO hasn't fallen, its currency hedged and only holds govt bonds so will continue to yield regardless.


----------



## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> There must be an out for Challenger? surely there is a mechanism for them to reduce the payout on annuities? the Challenger
> listed bond fund XARO hasn't fallen, its currency hedged and only holds govt bonds so will continue to yield regardless.



I might be wrong, but I would have thought they are a fixed contract, they would just have to write the risk into their forward estimates.
I haven't looked into them recently, when I looked a long time ago, the return was pretty low for how much they cost. But I think they were used by those on part pensions, as it was treated favourably.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I might be wrong, but I would have thought they are a fixed contract, they would just have to write the risk into their forward estimates.



Ok so i/we know that the bond component of their payout is covered (XARO), can we assume that they have long index puts to cover their market exposure? surely they do, thus the sell off is way over done, market is pricing risk where there is none or little.


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## So_Cynical (17 March 2020)

Googling - Challenger Life is Australia’s leading provider of annuities, providing reliable guaranteed (5)  incomes to approximately 60,000 Australian customers

(5)  The word ‘guaranteed’ means payments are guaranteed by Challenger Life Company Limited from the assets of its relevant statutory fund.~~
~






Equity exposure is very small, about 10% or so...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 March 2020)

about 10%?

Banks are funded thus


----------



## So_Cynical (17 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> about 10%?
> 
> Banks are funded thus
> View attachment 101418



Wrong thread maybe? Challenger isn't a bank.


----------



## mcgrath111 (17 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Wrong thread maybe? Challenger isn't a bank.



I've only ever speculated/dabbled with CGF, as I don't hold the proper understanding on annuities / how it all works...As a bit of a veteran around here, are you using this as an averaging opportunity or greener pastures elsewhere?


----------



## So_Cynical (17 March 2020)

mcgrath111 said:


> As a bit of a veteran around here, are you using this as an averaging opportunity or greener pastures elsewhere?



Both but selectively, big downturns like this (GFC) are the golden opportunity to buy the big quality stocks cheap, i have a small pile of cash that i have started moving into 
my broking account, the plan is to average into a few key holdings and enter a couple of new big quality stocks, one of the gaming stocks probably and APA or a bank.


----------



## sptrawler (22 April 2020)

Challenger third quarter report.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200422/pdf/44h4lr77xmxd5g.pdf

Funds under management down 10%, the standout from the report.


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## Trav. (3 June 2020)

I entered CGF today @$5.01 based on the following

- Pull Back signal on scan
- Got through $5 and ended up holding which will hopefully be the new support
- Nice upside until $5.53 which may provide some resistance but will be 10% gain


----------



## Trav. (9 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> Nice upside until $5.53 which may provide some resistance but will be 10% gain




I decided to close my trade today @ $5.50 after the mornings opening run. Not trying to pick the top but happy with the trade so locking in the profit. And yes another Rabbit for Trav.


----------



## Trav. (11 June 2020)

Just updating thread as sell came through on system today.

I did exit early as posted above due to SP going for a run, and although exited a tad earlier the system exit would have been very frustrating as pretty much all the profits would have disappeared.


----------



## JTLP (22 June 2020)

Challenger Cap Raising. I felt like they did one not long ago? Or am I thinking someone else.


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## So_Cynical (22 June 2020)

Placement at $4.89 and SPP resulting in an increase of shares on issue of about 9%, or a 9% dilution for shareholders that dont participate.


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## Dona Ferentes (11 August 2020)

Challenger was stung by a $750 million collapse in the value of its investments, pushing the company into the red, as the group looks to reinvigorate its flagging annuities business in Australia, where sales sunk by more than $1 billion.
Challenger revealed a full-year loss of $416 million compared with a profit of $308 million the year before. Revenue [halved], falling to $1.13 billion from $2.37 billion, the company said on Tuesday.

As flagged earlier in the year, Challenger decided against paying a final dividend.

Profit was hit by “losses resulting from the major COVID-19 market event”, chief executive Richard Howes said, as he pointed to growing funds under management as a sign of the business’ resilience.

Assets under management grew 4 per cent to $85 billion, as major superannuation funds parked assets in Challenger’s managed funds as part of a strategy to deal with liquidity requirements during the government’s early super release program.

“Normalised” net profit, stripping out asset price volatility to zone in on ongoing operations, fell 13 per cent over the year to $343 million on an after-tax basis. It expects a full-year normalised profit of between $390 million and $440 million this year.

Sales of life insurance rose 13 per cent with strong results from its Japanese operations. The company is Australia’s biggest seller of annuities, a form of longevity insurance, but said the domestic market was a sore point, with “structural changes to the wealth management market” and new age pension means test rules combining with the coronavirus economic crisis to dampen sales.

Local sales of annuities fell by $900 million over the year.






https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...fter-750-million-value-plunge-20200811-p55khc


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## So_Cynical (24 December 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Wrong thread maybe? Challenger isn't a bank.



9 months later and Challenger is a bank, coincidently while bored out of my mind at work today im going thru my portfolio stocks thinking what needs to be culled and i though - Challenger needs to buy something, like a small banking operation and or a retail super fund, and now boom.

Challenger Limited (ASX: CGF) today announced it has entered into an agreement to acquire MyLifeMyFinance Limited, an Australian-based customer savings and loans bank.  https://www.challenger.com.au/shareholder/market-announcements/mylife-myfinance-bank-acquisition

MyLife MyFinance - terrible name https://www.mylifemysuper.com.au/

I was thinking that the annuity market is kind of dead and Challenger really need to do something, the Vanguard entry into retail super is really going to shake things up and maybe CGF can be a part of that disruption, rename the fund (Catholic super) and turn it into a simple low cost indexing type of fund and bundle a simple online only banking offering.

Challenger do retirement income really well already so now they can launch a super pension product that will basically just bundle their funds together in the one vehicle but available thru the super system as a pension, this could be a big winner.


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## Dona Ferentes (9 February 2021)

a poorly received 1H21 has clipped what was only ever a lukewarm recovery from Covid. Low interest rates must be cruelling their model


_• Strong growth and diversification providing business momentum 
• Life book growth 4.7% in 1H21 
• Funds Management net inflows $6.4 billion in 1H21 
• Group assets under management up 13% to $96 billion in 1H21 
• Bank acquisition to drive medium-term growth 
• Performance in line with expectations 
• Normalised net profit before tax (NPBT) $196 million reflects progressive deployment of excess liquidity 
• On-track for full year normalised NPBT guidance 
• Statutory net profit after tax $223 million with positive investment experience _



> _ • Strongly capitalised
> • Challenger Life Company Limited excess capital above top end of target range
> • Dividend 9.5 cents per share fully franked_











(DNH)


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## Dona Ferentes (20 April 2021)

_And still getting it wrong?  But then with short term pricing and long term commitments, how can they ever hope to be right_


Challenger comes unstuck amid credit spread crunch


> Challenger has lowered its profit forecast and pledged to rein in overly-generous annuity pricing after it was wrong-footed by an unexpected crunch in credit spreads as the economy rebounds out of COVID-19.


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## greggles (7 July 2021)

CGF rallying this morning after news that Athene Holding Limited has agreed to acquire a 15% minority interest in Challenger from Caledonia (Private) Investments Pty Limited.



> Challenger’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Richard Howes said: “Today’s announcement by Athene is a strong endorsement of Challenger’s market position and long-term growth prospects from a leading international retirement services provider. We look forward to working with Athene and Apollo as we continue to pursue our shared purpose of providing customers financial security for a better retirement.”




CGF currently up 11.7% to $6.11. It's recent low of $4.79 on 5 May looks to be a distant memory now. Sentiment has turned and CGF is looking bullish once again.


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## So_Cynical (11 November 2021)

Noticed that Australia's only big contrarian fund manger Allan Gray has taken a position.
Blog post link below outlining their investment rational.









						Can Challenger face its challenges?
					

Analyst Tim Morrison details our investment thesis for Challenger Limited and the reasons we are attracted to the company.




					www.allangray.com.au


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## finicky (27 March 2022)

Thought I'd put it here. Video from 2015.

Rog's choice was  CGF back in Aug *2015 *at 2.34m. The stock did rally 100% in +2 years but today is roughly at the price it was when Rog did his pitch.

More entertaining though is the rave these two institutionalized guys did for Isentia (ISD) - "a company with bright future prospects" - late in the video. Most would be familiar - after reaching almost $5 in late 2015 Isentia went into severe decline  and was bought out by 'Access Intelligence' for $0.175 beginning June 2021 and that was at a 157% premium to the last closing price before the offer.


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