# "Missed the Boat" Syndrome



## roland (30 June 2008)

Reading the forums on winning stock picks, that we are not part of, fillls some of us with regret that we "missed the boat"

As each day or week goes by we revisit that thread and shake our head in disbelief that the stock SP is still going up - we know we could probably get on board but don't. 

Instead, some of us go around looking to "catch falling knives", watching for "dead cat bounces", that elusive "rebound" or a "good stock due for a turnaround".

I wonder what it is that makes some of us ignore the obvious and invest more wisely?

I wonder how many of us (I know I have), have watched FMG, for example and others, continue their upward march and do nothing about it?


How odd is it that we are keener to grab a bargain stock than one on a winning run?


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 June 2008)

roland said:


> How odd is it that we are keener to grab a bargain stock than one on a winning run?




Somewhere tied to this mentality is the 'skadaglad' (WayneL, what's the borrowed German word again???) where we find glee in the loss of others and discretely (or not so discretely) conduct bear dances hoping to bring prices down to 'I told you so' levels.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (30 June 2008)

Schadenfreude is enjoyment taken from the misfortune of someone else.

Try a new tactic - enter with low volume then gradually increase as long as the sp keeps rising - set trailing stops?


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 June 2008)

For me it`s fear of buying at the top.The further or harder the trend run, the greater the fear.


----------



## So_Cynical (30 June 2008)

I know i have a bargain buying mentality and i know ive missed a couple of good 
things, LNC comes to mind...i added it to a watchlist in like November or so at 
75 cents...i remember the chart was already running so i felt i had missed the 
boat. never thought it would see $4.

Spent a whole nite researching it to.

I find it very hard to buy when the chart shows a rise that i missed. :dunno:


----------



## nioka (30 June 2008)

Think of it like you would a Sydney ferry. If you arrive late you miss the ferry but, if you wait, there will be another coming along soon. You can't catch them all. Don't cry over spilt milk.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (30 June 2008)

I remember a few years ago printing out a broker report on a promising junior who's share price had just hit 15 cents - Paladin or something like that . Bought in again at 50c then out again for 20c profit and thought that was a good run..........doh!

Although, I think it's on the boil again, so who's not missing the boat this time????


----------



## dj_420 (30 June 2008)

I do know that catching a run early is important, I for instance try not to lament over a missed 20-50% rise when the stock may go on and continue on a sound run.

For example INP had run hard to 90 odd cents from 55-60 cents, I caught it on the retrace and got on at 0.83, was able to sell well over $1 for a good profit. If I had of been too worried about the missed 50% run already had I would have missed out.

In saying that I should have listed to my own advice on POS, I looked at 90 cents and could not understand the sudden interest. Now look at it!!!


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 July 2008)

nioka said:


> Think of it like you would a Sydney ferry. If you arrive late you miss the ferry but, if you wait, there will be another coming along soon. You can't catch them all. Don't cry over spilt milk.




Wisdom.  I like it.


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 July 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> For me it`s fear of buying at the top.The further or harder the trend run, the greater the fear.




That's a reasonable concern.  So you either have to wait for a dip, if indeed you know how to identify one, or accept that you may get involved and happen across one.


----------



## nizar (1 July 2008)

I'm more than happy to buy "tops".
Often in a few weeks/months/years down the track, a significantly higher "top" is made and your price suddenly looks "cheap"


----------



## prawn_86 (1 July 2008)

There is actually a fund manager who will only purchase shares when they break new highs, and only add to his postion when that share does the same thing, he achieved good results in the bull run, not sure about now though, although i guess he wouldnt be buying much. His name escapes me at the moment though.

personally whenever i buy something that has gone on a run, it virtually assures the fact that the share will then drop and consolidate, rather than going on another leg up


----------



## Nyden (1 July 2008)

Roland, you're always beating yourself up over stocks! I think the only syndrome I have lately is the _thank goodness syndrome_! So many stocks that I sold out of / came close to buying (heck, was even close to buying the stock GOLD when POG was something like 1030 - only to see it plummet days later; another thank goodness moment!) -  falling heavily months down the track.

I guess my point being is that fear can be a useful tool - it can be used to at least partially negate the dangers of greed, & stupidity. For mine; I much rather prefer the feeling of missed profits ... as opposed to money lost.

Always easy to wish you had bet on a horse after the Melbourne cup is over


----------



## roland (1 July 2008)

Nyden said:


> Roland, you're always beating yourself up over stocks! I think the only syndrome I have lately is the _thank goodness syndrome_! So many stocks that I sold out of / came close to buying (heck, was even close to buying the stock GOLD when POG was something like 1030 - only to see it plummet days later; another thank goodness moment!) -  falling heavily months down the track.
> 
> I guess my point being is that fear can be a useful tool - it can be used to at least partially negate the dangers of greed, & stupidity. For mine; I much rather prefer the feeling of missed profits ... as opposed to money lost.
> 
> Always easy to wish you had bet on a horse after the Melbourne cup is over




You're right Nyden, I do!

The thing is, if I don't understand something and am pretty sure others have the same issues, then I start a thread.

The high level of wisdom that comes out of the ASF members is astounding


----------

