# GUD - GUD Holdings



## GreatPig (18 July 2005)

Another breakout pushing up nicely. Currently $7.13 as I write.

Cheers,
GP

[I hold]


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## clowboy (18 July 2005)

*Re: GUD*

GreatPig

For those of us who don't know (me) what makes this a breakout?

Gud entered a buy signal for me about a week or so ago and then I sold out of the posistion a few days later becuase it went no where and I decided to try my luck on another stock (no my stop wasn't reached and yes I am kicking myself now).

The trade was only on paper though so the more important learning side of things will be good on this trade.

anyway any explanation on what makes this a breakout for you would be apreciatied.

Volume and price increase of course are fairly obvious ones that I pick


Cheers


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## GreatPig (18 July 2005)

*Re: GUD*

Clowboy,

This is only my opinion, but...

It's a breakout because the price jumped above the top line I had drawn across the previous peaks.

Prices have a tendency at times to be bounded by straight lines, sometimes horizontal lines and sometimes sloping lines. That gives rise to the various patterns that technical analysts often talk about (resistance, support, triangles, flags, pennants, etc). There are "crowd" explanations for all these patterns (ie. what's happening between buyers and sellers), but of course none are totally reliable. They're just indications of points of higher probability, although many breakouts also fail and quickly reverse direction again.

In this case, the downsloping top line formed a resistance level, albeit a descending one with time. The general idea is that at this level there was enough selling volume to prevent the price going higher. It would rise to that level, get pushed down by the sellers, rise again to nearly the same level, get pushed down again, and so on until all the volume for sale around that price had been bought. Then, with no more volume for sale at that price, the price broke through that resistance level and pushed on up. This indicates that ultimately there was more buying pressure than selling, but it took a while for all the volume at the resistance level to get bought up. From a T/A point of view, top-side breakouts indicate a good possibility of further price rises, especially if accompanied by relatively high volume.

In GUD's case, the volume was not particularly high when it first broke my line, but today's was much higher as it pushed well clear of the line. Who knows where it will go from here, but I'll hold until I get a sell indication.

Attached is another example from a stock I hold. I bought when it first broke the top line, after which it retreated back under the line but is now poking back up again. I have reasonable hopes for this given that the third bottom didn't reach right down to the bottom line and this last dip only got down to $1.20. Again, no guarantees of anything, but I think the signs are positive.

As I said, all just my own interpretation, but hopefully it helps.

Cheers,
GP


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## clowboy (18 July 2005)

*Re: GUD*

GP

From what I have interrupted in basic essance it broke the trend line (which was a resistance trend).

In which case it is most helpful.

Thanks for the explanation.


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## Dutchy3 (6 January 2006)

*Re: GUD*

GUD repeating previous pattern today.

BIG WHITE into new air.

LONG on the close


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## Dutchy3 (7 January 2006)

*Re: GUD*

This forums better. Charts can be posted.

This is what I see:


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## rozella (7 January 2006)

*Re: GUD*

Good explanation Greatpig,

The other thing that would not be doing it any harm, is that it is due to report its dividend on or around 31st January (last years date) & exdiv around the 21st February.  Last years dividend was 23.0 cents fully franked.  The Chairmans address in October said that he expects "further dividend growth for shareholders"

It is also the next major company to report, so it would be on a few radars at present including mine.....I was hoping it would drop a bit yesterday with the market....around 765.0 would be okay, currently 780.0


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## Dutchy3 (5 July 2006)

If this one can hold this sort of advance on the close this Friday, future direction is in little doubt


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## Dutchy3 (29 July 2006)

How wrong can I be? Entry and exit marks tell the story.


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## finnsk (31 July 2006)

What would be the reason for the drop "11% or more" in share price over the last few days  
Also with a div. yield of more than 7% looks like a god long term investment


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## 3 veiws of a secret (26 September 2006)

I have had a serious look at this share tonight - paying some 33 cents (?)dividend and the price slides down to $6.75 today. What's going on, is there bad results on the horizon? Just cannot seem to find the link, unless I'm careless as usual.
I've been looking for a solid yeilding share....... grrrrrr
Anybody willing to read the 'shamemus riot act' as to what I glaringly have missed.


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## jkool (6 January 2007)

Well this stock had cetainly had pretty good run since Sept (as did most of the ASX though). I have purchased it around $7.3 and its currently trading at almost $9!

I have also done some basic fundamentals analysis of GUD for the laymen on my website check it out and let me know if I missed something substantial. The link is http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/01/01/australia-gud-holdings-limited/


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## jkool (16 January 2007)

GUD again in record levels now around $9.1 so breaking $9 comfortably. Its trading at around 13.5 PE so there may still be quite a bit of upside IMHO. 

But I was wondering if someone running technicals over this stock could tell me how does this stock look from technical point of view (ie. next resistance, supports etc.)

Thanks

jkool
sog.shopinthemall.com


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## shinobi346 (18 January 2007)

Since plunging from a high of around 11 in Dec 2004 this share has hovered around the $8 mark. I notice when dividends are about to be distributed it surges to around $8.5. This time it seems to be going to 9 but another thing I've noticed is it seems to be having quite a bit of resistance keeping its head above that price, getting there twice these last couple of weeks and then falling sharply. Dividends are nice and this share has one of the highest (with the last announcement saying more to come) but for me I'm better off with capital profit so I got out on Monday.

I can't see things getting easier for them with all the cheap no-name chinese goods they have to compete with in kmart target etc. Suburban backyards with nothing but grass and a hills clotheslines in the middle are getting fewer.


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## jkool (19 January 2007)

shinobi346,

I would perhaps agree with your argument about the potential problems with their mowers in Australia but GUD is not only mowers nowadays. And not only Australia, roughly looking at their last annual report i found that:

#Consumer Products (brands Sunbeam, Victa, Oates Clean) bring in about 60% of total revenue
# Water Products (Spa Quip, Davey, Monarch Pools) about 21% of total revenue
# Automotive Products (brands Ryco, Wesfil) making about 15% of total revenue
# Security Products (Lock Focus) about 3% of total revenue
(my little analysis of GUD is located at http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/01/01/australia-gud-holdings-limited/
if you are intrested)

As to the argument of cheaper imported goods - well i think GUD is trying to get their stuff made in China also (if thats not already happening). So in my opinion they should be doing ok in that department also.

Having said all this, taking advantage of current market hights is by no means bad decision. GUD now trades around 14-15PE so should it return to its historical average PE of 11, you could re-purchase for handsome profit.

Good Luck
jkool


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## jkool (6 February 2007)

Interim results released on 29 January were not what market expected -> price back to its more traditional $8 levels. 

Not only, as predicted, the mower division suffered (due to drought), but also their cleaning business and forex hedging policies were disapointing.

Company does plan a share buyback so thats a little plus I guess, but whatabout the dividends? I mean earning 25 cents and paying dividend of 27 cents does not really sound very apealing for the long run. For more details look here http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/02/05/australia-gud-holdings-limited-–-interim-results-fy2007/

Good Luck
jkool


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## Kremmen (3 July 2007)

jkool said:


> I mean earning 25 cents and paying dividend of 27 cents does not really sound very apealing for the long run.




I would tend to agree. ... yet it's now over $9.50 and has traded over $9.80. Does anyone have any suggestions as to why the sudden upward movement?


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## Kremmen (10 July 2007)

Okay, it's now trading at $10.77, its highest point in the last year, close to its highest point ever, and up 6.7% for the day so far.

This sort of rise always makes me suspicious, especially on such huge volume as today. Maybe something's happening that the market hasn't been notified about yet?


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## Kremmen (18 July 2007)

Looks like I was right. On the same day I posted last, the board made an announcement that they had "recently received approaches in relation to the ownership of GUD". Perpetual have sold off 2M+ of their shares in the company, no doubt for a very nice profit. On 12/7, Harbinger Capital Partners announced that they had acquired over 5% of the company.

I guess the big question now is whether Harbinger and/or others will continue to buy and attempt a hostile takeover?

But this isn't a mining stock, so I guess most of you don't care.


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## YELNATS (18 July 2007)

Kremmen said:


> But this isn't a mining stock, so I guess most of you don't care.




I certainly care. I've had a substantial (for me) holding in GUD for about 3 years. They've been an excellent yield stock paying a good fully franked dividend.

I was attracted to GUD as they have become a well-diversified consumer goods business, and because of this they are able to ride out short term declines in any parts of their business.

It's not clear to me how a takeover could improve their business greatly, as current management seem to have done a reasonable job so far.

regards YN.


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## shinobi346 (18 July 2007)

Interesting to see that perteptual have pulled out of this. Will this get taken over as well like what happened to Rinker. GUD owns some famous aussie brands that have been around for a long time. It will be sad to see them go overseas as well.


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## Kremmen (19 July 2007)

YELNATS said:


> I certainly care. I've had a substantial (for me) holding in GUD for about 3 years. They've been an excellent yield stock paying a good fully franked dividend.




Just kidding. It seems that most of the avid posters here are all leaping about over every mining stock in sight and ignoring stocks such as this.

I bought into GUD a few months ago, because I wanted to add to my high-dividend fully-franked income. GUD seemed much better value than, say, banks, which are traditionally great dividend payers.

I quite agree with you that a takeover could not improve their business greatly. Indeed, I don't think it would improve it at all. I was expecting this to be a keeper that would pay me dividends for years. I'm reconsidering this though. If a takeover bid occurs, I think the short-term will be wonderful (more of what it is doing now). Of course, if it's a private equity takeover and it's successful, we'll have nothing to think about, because we'll get bought out. Otherwise, the share price will probably fall back. Hence it seems the most likely result is to get out with a hefty profit and look to re-invest it somewhere else.


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## bloomy88 (10 January 2009)

Hi all,

Have just been doing some research and came across this stock.

Huntley's recommendation on ETrade seems to be very upbeat about the stock

It is also paying a fully franked dividend of 11.9% at the moment.

I realise GUD sell comsumer discretionary items so that they are unlikey to have great results during this period but i still think as a long term hold they would be an attractive stock.

Any thoughts are aprecited

Cheers


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## Kremmen (9 October 2009)

Now I'm kicking myself. While GUD has been rising nicely, the big profit in the short term is in their takeover target, Breville. (BRG)

We should have seen that coming. Although, seeing there is no BRG forum on this site, I guess nobody here was watching the GUD/BRG action.


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## Out Too Soon (30 October 2009)

Kremmen said:


> Now I'm kicking myself. While GUD has been rising nicely, the big profit in the short term is in their takeover target, Breville. (BRG)
> 
> We should have seen that coming. Although, seeing there is no BRG forum on this site, I guess nobody here was watching the GUD/BRG action.




Well it looks like you'd be kicking harder if you bought & held 'til now. I wonder if this is a buying opportunity or just back to normal now the takeover hype is over


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## YELNATS (30 October 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> Well it looks like you'd be kicking harder if you bought & held 'til now. I wonder if this is a buying opportunity or just back to normal now the takeover hype is over




Seems like an attractive offer for BRG holders although their directors have advised holders to "take no action" at present.

I wonder if the ACCC would have any issues with both Breville and Sunbeam small appliance brands being controlled by the one player.


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## McCoy Pauley (16 December 2009)

YELNATS said:


> Seems like an attractive offer for BRG holders although their directors have advised holders to "take no action" at present.
> 
> I wonder if the ACCC would have any issues with both Breville and Sunbeam small appliance brands being controlled by the one player.




The ACCC certainly does have issues, announcing that it would block a hostile takeover offer from GUD for Breville.



> The ACCC said GUD and Breville are "by far" the two largest players in Australia's small appliance market.
> 
> "Between them they account for the majority of sales of many product categories and for some products they have a dominant sales share in excess of 90 per cent," ACCC chairman Graeme Samuel said in a statement.




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...bid-for-breville/story-e6frg9h6-1225810999696


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## tinhat (19 April 2012)

Not much lovin going on here for GUD. I had a look at the share price and chart just now thinking about selling down my holding to buy up some more TLS for the SMSF. Just noticed its on a rip. Might have to let it run.


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## tinhat (11 July 2012)

GUD share price is still running up nicely yet still yielding around 7.4%. It might get a nice run up to reporting season before going ex-dividend in August. On the weekly chart it has broken above the previous recent high back in May and this week it has bumped up against the upper bollinger band (on the weekly chart) so there might be a bit of retracement back to around the $8.40 mark in coming weeks. Around $8.80 is the 50% retracement level back to the high of $10.74 in November 2011. Price is rising on low volume so I am hopeful that it will find a new support level between $8.40 and $8.80.









The chart is looking good, it will be interesting to see the full year report. On the fundamentals, EPS have been falling over the past two years (forecast result for 2012 FY was 5.16% EPS contraction) and ROE has been falling over the past three years too. It's PE is currently at 13.67 (as of yesterday's close) so it's trading a little high on PE for a consumer discretionary in the current environment indicating that the market is looking for a earnings turnaround this year.

It's a good income earner for the SMSF although not an exciting business (its businesses sell very generic, highly substitutable consumer goods and I am concerned about long term competitive advantage). That said it is run well although profits have been held up by cost control rather than sales growth in the past couple of years. I'll wait for reporting season and the fully franked dividend and then decide on a price target for the medium term.

Is any one else following this company?


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## Gringotts Bank (11 July 2012)

Been thinking how good the charts looks for the last 5 days or so.  If it doesn't break 8.88 very soon, I'm going to lose interest.  But I'd say a very good low risk bet.


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## tinhat (25 January 2013)

Some heavy selling off the last few days. Disappointing half year results. They should have hung onto their stake in Breville!

They are dropping prices on Sunbeam products. They are losing sales in the Oats business from the small shop trade to the big grocers and hardware chains.

Not a positive outlook. Could be a dividend trap.


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## tinhat (10 April 2013)

Massive sell-off in the first quarter of this year. GUD needs to keep above long term support at around the $7 mark. It will take a good half year report I would imagine (which I don't think the market are expecting) to turn the share price around from here. If they can maintain margins and at least maintain real earnings a share price 20-40% above where it is now might be justified (PE 12-14).

Good dividend but a high payout ratio. Still could be a value trap in the long run.

They need an industrial designer to remodel their kitchen appliances too. Other than the espresso machines, their appliance designs are tired.


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## ukulele (27 January 2016)

The market certainly didn't take too kindly on GUDs results released today, which is probably fair. Could be a short candidate if it closes below the 7 dollar mark.


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## peter2 (20 March 2017)

The short term chart of GUD shows a recent break-out to a new high. 





It certainly looks good, but this chart doesn't show the BIG picture.

GUD is now at all time highs. The $11 level has been as high as it got in the past. Kudos for the management team as they've had a rocky journey.


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## charlsie (29 November 2019)

wondering if anyone is watching this thread anymore. the price action over the last couple days seems strange. are there any thoughts?


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## Dona Ferentes (5 August 2021)

The number of cars on Australia’s roads is projected to grow by 7 per cent and the average age of vehicles will increase to 10.9 years by 2025 in part because of COVID-19 fallout as households hold on to older vehicles for longer in the pandemic.

This is proving to be a boon for GUD

_Strong sales drove a record result, slightly above underlying EBIT guidance ($98-100m)_
_Resilience of the automotive aftermarket reinforced by strong end user demand_
_Cost inflation and supply chain pressures remain challenging with operational fitness initiatives to mitgate_
_Confident in business positioning for FY22 but alert to COVID-19 uncertainties_
_Focus for Automotive and Water remains on continued execution of core business and growth strategy _
_Acquisitions successfully integrated and meeting expectations; appetite remains unchanged_
GUD, which sells Ryco oil filters and air filters, Goss fuel pumps and hoses, Narva automotive lighting and electrical parts and a range of disc brakes products, almost tripled its final dividend to 32¢ per share after a 40 per cent hike in net profit to $61 million for 2020-21.

Revenue for GUD increased by 27 per cent to $557 million as demand from mechanics expanded in the pandemic. Inflation is hitting the car parts sector. Mr Whickman said a series of price rises had been implemented from the start of July which averaged out at between 3 to 4 per cent across the portfolio. Some prices were up between 6 to 7 per cent, others at 2 per cent-plus.


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## Sean K (5 August 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The number of cars on Australia’s roads is projected to grow by 7 per cent and the average age of vehicles will increase to 10.9 years by 2025 in part because of COVID-19 fallout as households hold on to older vehicles for longer in the pandemic.




GUD was the first stock I ever bought, back in 1996. I think it was because I had a Victa lawnmower. Started to follow again.


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## sptrawler (5 August 2021)

Good points @Dona Ferentes, I haven't looked at them for a long time, but the car issue is worth thinking about IMO.
There will be a big push toward BEV's and they are a lot dearer than ICE vehicles, so maybe over the next short period of time there will be a propensity to keep what you have, how long that lasts for will be the issue but it may give GUD a sugar hit.
I would expect long term the ICE parts, to go the way of the coal power stations, in a lot of ways it is past the point of applying logics to the outcome, IMO it is a done deal in Australia. 

It has actually become a competition to see who can get there first IMO. 🤣


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## Dona Ferentes (5 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> There will be a big push toward BEV's and they are a lot dearer than ICE vehicles, so maybe over the next short period of time there will be a propensity to keep what you have, how long that lasts for will be the issue but it may give GUD a sugar hit.
> 
> I would expect long term the ICE parts, to go the way of the coal power stations, in a lot of ways it is past the point of applying logics to the outcome, IMO it is a done deal in Australia.  It has actually become a competition to see who can get there first IMO. 🤣



CEO Graeme Whickman also said that GUD is future-proofing itself from a slow and steady shift towards electric vehicles as the world’s major manufacturers eye various targets to move away from combustion engines.

He said in the group’s automotive business, the _product mix had shifted in the past three years to about 60 per cent of items now being unrelated to the combustion engine_. The company also runs a water pumps division, which suffered a 45 per cent drop in annual profits.



> _But the longer-term structural demand for the group’s products is robust as car owners look to keep their older models in the best shape. He said there were about 19.3 million cars on the road in 2020, and that is projected to increase by 7 per cent to 20.6 million vehicles by 2025._





> _The average age of cars in Australia is forecast to increase to 10.9 years by then, from 10.4 years old in 2020. Mr Whickman said the “sweet spot” for the group in the car parts aftermarket is vehicles more than five years old. That segment is projected to grow to about 16.2 million by 2025, from 14.4 million in 2020._


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## DrBourse (5 August 2021)

??


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## Dona Ferentes (5 August 2021)

*THESE CALCULATIONS ARE FOR MY USE ONLY..*

then what's your point?


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## Dona Ferentes (18 April 2022)

_GUD have a 'deep dive' look at their businesses, a 124 page investor update from last week. Their positioning has to account for fundamental change in vehicle markets._

GUD is looking for a bigger share of the more complex car parts and accessories market for electric vehicles which is projected to be worth $1 billion by 2030 in Australasia, up from just $50 million now.

A business called Innovative Mechatronics Group, acquired by GUD in 2017, is at the centre of the push to expand in providing parts and services to the electric vehicle market.

The electric vehicle _mechatronics _business, known as IM Group, is positioned strongly to take advantage of what GUD expects will be high double digit, year on year growth in demand for electric vehicle parts and accessories, which are more complex than those for traditional internal combustion engines.

IM Group CEO Gino Ricciuti said in his investor presentation that GUD aimed to scale and rapidly expand the electronics repair and re-manufacturing operations. Mechatronics is where mechanics and electronics intersect. "_Electric vehicles have more and more complex electronics than equivalent internal combustion engine cars"_, he said.

He said genuine replacement batteries for Hybrid Electric Vehicles are expensive, and sit at about 25 per cent of the entire value of a vehicle at the time of failure


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