# Your day in the Market - Market Commentary



## Kimosabi (19 April 2007)

I thought it would be a good idea to start a thread where we can discuss how our day has been in the market. ie our wins/losses etc, and maybe blow a bit of steam.

This morning I was so much red, I thought I was swimming in the Red Sea .

But by lunch time I starting to a bit of black come across my stocks so I'm a little happier .


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## marklar (19 April 2007)

Mostly green, one red, some blue (sideways).  I have a strange portfolio, it tends to move opposite to the Index most days.

I'm just happy BPO, HLX, and YML are doing ok.

m.


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## chops_a_must (19 April 2007)

What the hell are you guys talking about? It's been a fantastic day.

My main hodings right now are in AOE, LHG and VRE with a smaller holding in ESG which is at record highs and looking like it may be a t/o target. So, nett, I am up for the day.

These are the days where you get your eye on quality stocks. If they are sitting at value already, they wont go down as much. And will be the first to recover.


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## CanOz (19 April 2007)

I'm sidelined still. Too much work and not enough time to plan trades.

I still watch the indexs though.

Cheers,


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## Kimosabi (19 April 2007)

I had a fantastic day two days ago, I thought I was flying to the moon, should have sold everything then and bought in again this morning


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## erictjie (19 April 2007)

Correction overdue. If tommorrow down again there will be panick sellers. 
I clean up my portfolio today. 
I think you should take your losses today and never too late to get in tommorrow if the market recovers.
But I think it is going to a free fall.


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## Kimosabi (19 April 2007)

erictjie said:


> Correction overdue. If tommorrow down again there will be panick sellers.
> I clean up my portfolio today.
> I think you should take your losses today and never too late to get in tommorrow if the market recovers.
> But I think it is going to a free fall.




Wow, great first post...


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## chops_a_must (19 April 2007)

Kimosabi said:


> I had a fantastic day two days ago, I thought I was flying to the moon, should have sold everything then and bought in again this morning




But if things aren't even near your get out points, then why should one sell?

If they start to tank, I will get out. However, my stocks have and continue to look very strong.

This is the best time to be looking at and picking new entries. Look at the stocks that are steady and or going up... and find out WHY! 

But panic everybody. The world is coming to an end! My stocks are directly related to US sub prime!!! ARGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!


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## motion (19 April 2007)

Well I had the best day yet since starting to trade... SLA was up a nice 8.6% which paid some good returns.... VPE also up did well for me giving me a nice break from the red... into the green and still going... 

I hope tomorrow is as good to me as today !


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## surfingman (19 April 2007)

My day finished nicely only hold 2 different shares at the moment OEL up 8.7% and ADI still patiently waiting.....


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## constable (19 April 2007)

the only excitement i had was watching some buy depth appear on rtl.
went to the movies and watched 300..(wait for the dvd imo).
apart from that 2 losing trades and 1 win (negligible really) .


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## Boyou (19 April 2007)

Nice idea...this mood thing!


My Gold is glittering a bit more than yesterday.Have small parcel in MON.And some GOLD with Perth Mint


HYO,which,I think most here describe as a Dog is still in its kennel.Sob Sob




Cheers Ya'll


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## BIG BWACULL (19 April 2007)

DOH!!!


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## nizar (19 April 2007)

Down for the day.
But im not going to sell everything because i think theres gonna be a correction.

Corrections come when people LEAST expect them.
Most of my holdings a long way above their stop/exit.

And im still buying JRL/EME looked the goods today i liked the way they bounced.


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## Kimosabi (19 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> But if things aren't even near your get out points, then why should one sell?
> 
> If they start to tank, I will get out. However, my stocks have and continue to look very strong.
> 
> ...




hahaha, everything will melt down related to sub-prime, but there's still money to made in the mean-time.

I'm waiting for a Private Equity accident next.  Maybe even the US defaulting on a loan repayment, wouldn't that put a cat amongst the pigeons.

What happens if the printing presses break down and they can't print anymore money?

I've got a bit of money in the market to play with but the bulk is still out for the moment.


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## Preppy (19 April 2007)

The bears aren't dancing - they're running from the bulls...  

I'm a newbie at this and I've tried to get a mixed portfolio like my share investing for beginners book recommends.  I finished with some up and others down today.  Would have been nice to have them all up but hey - tomorrow's another day!


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## 2020hindsight (19 April 2007)

How was today? - ahh just bludy fantastic lol. like, I'm busy filling up the spa with champagne right now as I type (not) lol - down about 3% on portfolio overall.

Trying to pick which of these is most relevant :-  



> http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Latin_proverbs
> Fluctuat nec mergitur
> Translation: "Shaken by the waves, but it will not sink" (inscription on Paris' coat of arms).
> 
> ...



Think I like the last one - just go out and get blind


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## chops_a_must (19 April 2007)

Kimosabi said:


> hahaha, everything will melt down related to sub-prime, but there's still money to made in the mean-time.



Oh yes. My stocks that have exposure purely domestically will tank without a doubt.



> I'm waiting for a Private Equity accident next.  Maybe even the US defaulting on a loan repayment, wouldn't that put a cat amongst the pigeons.



Probably not. The IMF is run by the US. The money markets are structured in a way where this wont happen. 



> What happens if the printing presses break down and they can't print anymore money?



Gold will go up and I'll start selling my 20c coins for 25.



Kimosabi said:


> I've got a bit of money in the market to play with but the bulk is still out for the moment.



But you can't see any opportunities for that money? 

The reality is, if the market tanks, I'll probably only lose a month worth of gains. At the moment, my stocks are defensively targeted. I bet the only people packing themselves are those with a lot of U stocks.

No financials, no retail and no property stocks. My portfolio right now is all domestically oriented, or non volatile.

If you are that keen on a crash, why not buy physical gold and silver? It'll perform better than cash.


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## ta2693 (19 April 2007)

marklar said:


> Mostly green, one red, some blue (sideways).  I have a strange portfolio, it tends to move opposite to the Index most days.
> 
> I'm just happy BPO, HLX, and YML are doing ok.
> 
> m.




YML -7.7%, are you happy about it? I do not get it.


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## erictjie (19 April 2007)

I am happy to know that everybody doing very well here. I hope only the best for all of you.
I used to be a stockbroker specialising emerging markets and have ride many boom and bust in my life, but it looks the ball is rolling bigger n bigger. There are alot of money out there hungry to be invested, but alot of people don't know what to do/ invest. 
You can say the mining boom this time is for real (Uranium). it looks to me no different like during tech boom or whatever boom we have before. By the end of the day you have to come down to reality that what is real or what is not.
During tech boom I made $7 figures on papers but lost $200k when it bust. The lesson is get out when you are on high. This uranium cylce will end this year if not very very soon. I am not comfortable with the look of AUD$ and PEAK commodity prices. Inflation is on the rise. 
China sharemarket has double the past 4 months but the chinese gov know it is not sustainable, because so much money try to invest in china (speculation). I will see big correction this year in china for sure, the last minor correction is nothing. I hope before that time you guys have your money parked in the bank.
cheer
invest smartly


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## >Apocalypto< (19 April 2007)

erictjie said:


> I am happy to know that everybody doing very well here. I hope only the best for all of you.
> I used to be a stockbroker specialising emerging markets and have ride many boom and bust in my life, but it looks the ball is rolling bigger n bigger. There are alot of money out there hungry to be invested, but alot of people don't know what to do/ invest.
> You can say the mining boom this time is for real (Uranium). it looks to me no different like during tech boom or whatever boom we have before. By the end of the day you have to come down to reality that what is real or what is not.
> During tech boom I made $7 figures on papers but lost $200k when it bust. The lesson is get out when you are on high. This uranium cylce will end this year if not very very soon. I am not comfortable with the look of AUD$ and PEAK commodity prices. Inflation is on the rise.
> ...




Do you have any technical evidence on your charts to back up any of your calls?

If you don't use tech analysis will have to see if it happens.

Cheers
Joseph


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## Ken (19 April 2007)

I believe for every stock we see doubling, and tripling, on the new ipo's there are stocks out there slowly etching there way down into insignifance.

The money will come and go from the markets.

Do what you do best.


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## erictjie (19 April 2007)

Trade_It said:


> Do you have any technical evidence on your charts to back up any of your calls?
> 
> If you don't use tech analysis will have to see if it happens.
> 
> ...




I don't have any technical chart knowledge, but thru my previous experiences, I feel we are walking on a thin line at the moment. Market crash come suddenly, how do tech chart know?


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## >Apocalypto< (20 April 2007)

erictjie said:


> I don't have any technical chart knowledge, but thru my previous experiences, I feel we are walking on a thin line at the moment. Market crash come suddenly, how do tech chart know?




I respect and enjoyed your posts, just hoped to see some charts. 

You can see signs of major weakness emerging in a chart, but it is up to the chart reader to be able to listen to what it's telling him/her and not just look for what they want to hear. I am very guilty of this sometimes!

Currently I have no index trades on,

Few top 50 stocks are looking good depending on todays action. 

Dow still looks like it just pushing with out any strength. But it can bust out at these situations.

IGXJO drop looked like getting back to its trend line but with another recored posted on Wall street it came around last night with a lot of bargain hunters / short coverings, looks like a normal correction retracement right now. Still looking for confirmation to enter long.

AUS/USD placed another 2 x long last night after i saw it bounce of the trend on a 4 hour 3 month, that trend is very strong now with entry on the 9 touch. Stop under the trend line. Come on Aussie!


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## ta2693 (20 April 2007)

erictjie said:


> I am happy to know that everybody doing very well here. I hope only the best for all of you.
> I used to be a stockbroker specialising emerging markets and have ride many boom and bust in my life, but it looks the ball is rolling bigger n bigger. There are alot of money out there hungry to be invested, but alot of people don't know what to do/ invest.
> You can say the mining boom this time is for real (Uranium). it looks to me no different like during tech boom or whatever boom we have before. By the end of the day you have to come down to reality that what is real or what is not.
> During tech boom I made $7 figures on papers but lost $200k when it bust. The lesson is get out when you are on high. This uranium cylce will end this year if not very very soon. I am not comfortable with the look of AUD$ and PEAK commodity prices. Inflation is on the rise.
> ...



I have the same feeling. the market is a little bit hot. But i think it would be crazy in this year. Not many people in my community(Chinese) are trading or even holding a share in asx. Some of them are wealthy people or have some spare money to invest. I want to know the situation in other community. Are they involved in?
If the answer is yes. I am going to run away. Please let me know the situation around you. 
If the answer is no, i believe one day they will be involved, because of the fantastic story of making easy money. They will come to make the final push of market. I am waiting for that day and sell my holding to the people who love uranium story but come late and give them the chance of being absolutely wealthy.  I may be wrong, if there is a lot of  people like you who have wisdom in investing.


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## >Apocalypto< (20 April 2007)

ta2693 said:


> I have the same feeling. the market is a little bit hot. But i think it would be crazy in this year. Not many people in my community(Chinese) are trading or even holding a share in asx. Some of them are wealthy people or have some spare money to invest. I want to know the situation in other community. Are they involved in?
> If the answer is yes. I am going to run away. Please let me know the situation around you.
> If the answer is no, i believe one day they will be involved, because of the fantastic story of making easy money. They will come to make the final push of market. I am waiting for that day and sell my holding to the people who love uranium story but come late and give them the chance of being absolutely wealthy.  I may be wrong, if there is a lot of  people like you who have wisdom in investing.




What makes it hot or over valued?

Please explain yourself!

Its all good to call crash no probs there at all, but you need some reasons to back it up!

My mother bought in before the All Ords hit 4000 and when they hit 4000 she told me that no one thought it would hold. Same things you say, to hot over valued

but as we speak it's over 6000. So I say again, why? What makes it unable to reach 7000?

Cheers
Joseph


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## Kimosabi (20 April 2007)

Trade_It said:


> What makes it hot or over valued?
> 
> Please explain yourself!
> 
> ...




I can't see any imminent reason why the market should start heading south, yet...


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## >Apocalypto< (20 April 2007)

Kimosabi said:


> I can't see any imminent reason why the market should start heading south, yet...




I am with you,

But I am a little weary now on our market some short term weakness creeping in.

DOW is really going to be interesting it looks like its running out of pace but I have seen it blow out, at times like this before. 

I can't see a major crash coming. A very solid correction or consolidation yes, but when, don't know.

But that's my opinion.


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## chops_a_must (27 April 2007)

Waaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Panic panic panic!!! The sky is falling!!! Sell! sell!!! Sell!!!!!


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## Kimosabi (27 April 2007)

Luckily I'm color blind, so down days don't look so bad...


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## BIG BWACULL (27 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Waaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Panic panic panic!!! The sky is falling!!! Sell! sell!!! Sell!!!!!



You can say that Again 


> Luckily I'm color blind, so down days don't look so bad...



 Me too but when the graphs start sloping down from left to right  AAARRRGGGGHHH.  Might have to turn my screen upside down AH thats better PHEW


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## Kimosabi (27 April 2007)

BIG BWACULL said:


> Might have to turn my screen upside down AH thats better PHEW




I have found it is always best to turn your screen on it's side, then your graphs look great, always blue sky...


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## rub92me (27 April 2007)

Looks like a low volume trading day for most of the stocks I hold. Down today, but still a good week. Still 30 minutes to go though. Stop losses firmly in place.


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## chops_a_must (8 May 2007)

Was a rather frustrating day today. Looked to be rather indiscriminate selling, with stocks with a strong recent performance the worst hit on my watchlists. Looks to be people locking in and taking profits, so it could have been worse. Might be a pretty flat and boring rest of the week on the markets I reckon.


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## Kimosabi (8 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Was a rather frustrating day today. Looked to be rather indiscriminate selling, with stocks with a strong recent performance the worst hit on my watchlists. Looks to be people locking in and taking profits, so it could have been worse. Might be a pretty flat and boring rest of the week on the markets I reckon.




I suspect it may have been a pre-budget sell-off.

The current market is making me so nervous at the moment.

I'm tempted to forget about long-term investing for the majority of stocks and focus on short term trading on a couple of stocks that until the seemingly inevitable blow-off/up happens.

It doesn't help when just about everything I'm reading say's it's all going to go pop...


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## nizar (8 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Was a rather frustrating day today. Looked to be rather indiscriminate selling, with stocks with a strong recent performance the worst hit on my watchlists. Looks to be people locking in and taking profits, so it could have been worse. Might be a pretty flat and boring rest of the week on the markets I reckon.




Pre-budget nerves.

Also the US FED will make an interest rate decision 2mrw.
So DOW will be nervous most likely down tonight.

But some sweet words from Ben and a super-incentive budget and we are still all systems go.

Im up for the day 1.12% in main portfolio - Thanks MPO


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## constable (8 May 2007)

Actually had a good trading day came out approx 1k on the following trades
nxs  +3 ticks
ady  +1 tick   o/nite
esg  +1 tick
tas  - 1 tick
nxs -2 ticks
far  +1 tick
inl  o tick
Holding far o/nite.


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## nizar (8 May 2007)

constable said:


> Actually had a good trading day came out approx 1k on the following trades
> nxs  +3 ticks
> ady  +1 tick   o/nite
> esg  +1 tick
> ...




My ESG is unchanged. Pity though. Looks bullish yesterday.


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## constable (8 May 2007)

Came out swinging with good vol but certainy died in the ****! I tried to upload the intraday of westpac but the file was too big. Basically sp came out swinging hit 47c twice ,tanked to 45c then spent most of the morning ranging between 455c and 46c then down to 45c to 455c after lunch, before dropping off after 3pm.


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## chops_a_must (8 June 2007)

Wasn't a bad day in the end. Most of my stocks showing great strength. Some were even up... AOE, QGC, VRE and VREO namely. On volume as well.

I said about a month ago somewhere... that I thought retail and bank stocks would find it hard as there has been no fundamental reason for them to join in the bull run since the end of last year. To me, a lot of resource stocks are quite undervalued, and so far they haven't been hit as hard as other stocks (the ones I have on my watchlists anyway). I for one will be targetting dividend yield over the next few weeks.


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## rub92me (27 June 2007)

So did anybody have a _good_ day today I wonder? Even my strongest performers got hit a bit today. Still up for the week (thank you Admiralty), but don't want to see another day like today thank you very much


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## UPKA (27 June 2007)

rub92me said:


> So did anybody have a _good_ day today I wonder? Even my strongest performers got hit a bit today. Still up for the week (thank you Admiralty), but don't want to see another day like today thank you very much




i've been hit pretty hard this week, things seemed sweet till monday!! managed to pull few out be4 the losses got too great. i guess good to offset against CGT...


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## CanOz (27 June 2007)

The only way to describe my run lately is RED. I'm trying to develop a system, but managing stop losses is a full time job. Because of internet problems and changing brokers i recently just got back into the market. A new strategy has just seen nearly 18 consecutive losses in a row. My win/loss rate is appalling. I'm not even opening any new positions, just gradually getting stopped out of my portfolio, even lost TAP today after i moved the stop to breakeven the other week.  

If there was ever a bad time to re enter the market i picked it.

I'll be lucky to recover from this emotionally. All the reading you do does not prepare you this.

This really sucks.


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## Gundini (10 August 2007)

Might as well fire this thread back up, more blood on the streets...

I suppose the question again is, "Shopping day or Stay away"...

Fortunately, not too exposed myself, picked up RMD and TLS after their huge falls, so sheltered to a certain extent.

Interested on Techs view, think he will be in the Stay away boat. I cleared out my portfolio after he unloaded his long term holdings. Very good reading of the market and excellent timing. Thanks for the heads up Tech...


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## insider (10 August 2007)

I'm getting rid of everything I own... MTN and CTS... I Had enough with this US crap... XAO will fall more and I can see MTN falling down about a dollar today


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## black_bird2 (10 August 2007)

BOHICA - bend over here it comes again.


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## justjohn (10 August 2007)

black_bird2 said:


> BOHICA - bend over here it comes again.




Black bird you forgot two words BRACE YOURSELF


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## nioka (10 August 2007)

My theory of "buy on Fridays and sell Tuesdays or Wednesdays" has some validity so far this week. Everything I have is in the red today ( except for ESI which is in a trading halt) after a good week up till now. Guess I'll go fishing. A bad day fishing is better than a good day at the office anyway.


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## hector (10 August 2007)

CanOz said:


> The only way to describe my run lately is RED.
> I'll be lucky to recover from this emotionally. All the reading you do does not prepare you this.
> 
> This really sucks.




Hi Canuckie,

I remember your post just prior to then that you were largely in cash because of your concerns of overheating in Shanghai Market. So you can't be too far off the mark with your trading.

I've been largely out of the market since Feb 28th. I was day-trading between jobs and although I averaged 10% a week for February, I lost a good part of that by not setting stops before going out for coffee on the 27th. 'The market looks strong', I thought, and left for the afternoon!

I found the emotional energy required for day-trading was very demanding, and then to lose my winnings was quite a knock, as you are experiencing now. So for me it was back to work and I've held only one stable long-term position since then (5% per month).

I've missed out on some excellent trading opportunities in this time but needed to take a clean break. Time and other recreations are a great restorative - I'm now ready to re-engage and will use a time-frame less demanding for my personality-type.

So, you won't be out for long, but you should probably take a break. The best advice I received recently for Bullish and volatile conditions is to take smaller positions with wider stops.

All the best,
hector


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## hector (10 August 2007)

Sorry, Canuckie, I just realised this reply is 6 weeks late!
hector


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## Gundini (10 August 2007)

What a crappy day, all too familiar of late. Survived the open, but gave back a bit trying to pull out somes day trades on ZFX and BHP. Unfortunately they didn't recover as I expected, so another donation made by me... Alot of people feeling a lot of pain today I would think.

Is it over? Doubt it....


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## CanOz (10 August 2007)

Gundini said:


> What a crappy day, all too familiar of late. Survived the open, but gave back a bit trying to pull out somes day trades on ZFX and BHP. Unfortunately they didn't recover as I expected, so another donation made by me... Alot of people feeling a lot of pain today I would think.
> 
> Is it over? Doubt it....




I know if i were still holding any longs, i would want to be hedging them with CFDs. 

Luckily the market is giving some back to me now...and so it should!

Cheers,


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## MS+Tradesim (10 August 2007)

Well, I made 32% last week and 22% this week on my trading account. Long only, shares only. A couple of open trades floundering but even if they swing all the way to stop losses will not dent the returns much.

In this environment day trading is leaving my mechanical trend system for dead. When the market finally turns I'll have a nice addition of capital to put into trends again. IMI, EGO, and MBL have all added nicely for short term moves.

Sorry to hear others have not fared so well.


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## Boyou (10 August 2007)

RED and Gold today 

Red for my small miners and Gold for my physical gold shares

Thinking I should have got out on 26 July..but hung in to see how scary it could get....not even raising a sweat ..yet!

I'm backing gold to go ballistic soon..then I can get rid of my nappy!

Cheers Ya'll


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## nizar (10 August 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Well, I made 32% last week and 22% this week on my trading account. Long only, shares only. A couple of open trades floundering but even if they swing all the way to stop losses will not dent the returns much.




Good effort brother.


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