# Fib Retrace and other pullback trades



## bowman (27 May 2009)

When breakout patterns are thin on the ground there's always the retrace trade.

Here's five contenders.


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## bunyip (27 May 2009)

Bowman

Beware of buying retracements in downtrending stocks - it's a recipe for losing money. Remember CMW?
AXO is the only clear uptrender of the five candidates you've mentioned. 
MIX is kind of in no mans land with no clear trend either way. The others have rolled over and are in the early stages of  new downtrends.
The trend is your friend. I love buying retracements during uptrends and shorting rallies during downtrends. I do it all the time in Forex and I did it in stocks for many years before that. 
If the retracement stops at one of the Fibonacci retracement levels or near a support or resistance level, better still.
*But my trade must be with the trend.*
Not for love nor money will I take a trade against the direction of the main trend....I leave those sort of adventurous trades for someone else.
Swimming with the current is a lot easier than swimming against it.


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## bowman (27 May 2009)

On the other hand, a downtrend at some point turns into another uptrend.


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## bunyip (27 May 2009)

bowman said:


> On the other hand, a downtrend at some point turns into another uptrend.




Indeed it does. And when that new uptrend begins, that's the time to look for pullback trades.
But buying pullbacks before the uptrend gets under way will only chew up your account. I speak from first hand experience over many years in the school of hard knocks!


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## bowman (27 May 2009)

I'd love to know how you apply 50% and 62% retrace levels.

Unless you use them on extremely short time frames I can't see how you can regularly find pullbacks to those levels without finding busted uptrends.

I understand you are a trend trader but please don't suggest it's the only way to trade.
My account balance is just fine thanks.

By the way I already made money on CMW by buying again at .56 (support level) and I expect to make more when I sell my original position.

Now if you'd like to contribute some pullback trading  ideas rather than just sermons, then be my guest.


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## bunyip (27 May 2009)

bowman said:


> I'd love to know how you apply 50% and 62% retrace levels.
> 
> Unless you use them on extremely short time frames I can't see how you can regularly find pullbacks to those levels without finding busted uptrends.
> 
> ...




Taking counter-trend trades like CMW will yield you a few crumbs in most cases, unless you strike it lucky by having the trend change in your favour shortly after you enter. 
On the other hand, trading with the trend will enhance the likelyhood of you taking a sizeable bite out of the loaf.
But if you can't see that then I'm not going to waste any more of my time trying to convince you.

Yes, I can show you how to trade 50% and 62% retracements. And I can contribute many valuable pullback trading ideas.
But in view of the terse tone of your last post, I feel disinclined to spend any further time sharing my knowledge and experince with you, or in any way trying to help you.
I wish you all the best in trading against the trend.


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## bowman (27 May 2009)

> I wish you all the best in trading against the trend.




Very droll bunyip.

When I realised on the Swing trade thread, that we were likely to be at odds with our approach to trading, I politely thanked you and moved on to this thread, which by it's title is quite broad and accomodating.

Yet you felt compelled to come over here and stalk me with your trend following mantra. If it's lonely in the Swing trade thread with just you and Stevo, then by all means start up some more threads of your own.

I believe there's plenty of room left in the forum.


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## skc (27 May 2009)

Here's one on Hills Industries... 

Can't say I feel like trading this one - it never got out of the long term downtrend, plus I just don't see the sale of Hills Hoist about to explode


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## skc (27 May 2009)

MGR... may be a bit late, may be not. 

To trade this one might place a stop a the pivot low which is some 20% below current price - so not exactly good value for trading capital. However, the upside could be $1.5 (based on wave equality) so R:R is 2.5.


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## bunyip (27 May 2009)

bowman said:


> Very droll bunyip.
> 
> When I realised on the Swing trade thread, that we were likely to be at odds with our approach to trading, I politely thanked you and moved on to this thread, which by it's title is quite broad and accomodating.
> 
> ...




I'm not stalking you mate. You put up some charts here presumably to invite comment and discussion. I gave it. Nothing more than that. That's what forums are for.


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## skc (27 May 2009)

NOD. A nice fall from high of $3.5 to ~15c - that's halved. then halved, and halved and halved again, followed by a 40% fall! Back from the brink in 2009 and now looking for the end of the retracement. 

Fundamentally the company is still profitable and pays dividend...


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## So_Cynical (27 May 2009)

bowman said:


> Very droll bunyip.
> 
> When I realised on the Swing trade thread, that we were likely to be at odds with our approach to trading, I politely thanked you and moved on to this thread, which by it's title is quite broad and accomodating.
> 
> ...




U cant expect the trendy's with all there rules, to buy into falling stocks.

I love it....and doing quite well at it lately.

Its good to find some people here i have something in common with.


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## skc (28 May 2009)

BOQ. It looked like at one stage to be bouncing off the 61.8% retracement nicely. But it might not even hold today.


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## bowman (28 May 2009)

AUN consolidating around the 38% retrace ( forgot to include it on the chart ) and forming a cup and handle pattern.


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## bowman (29 May 2009)

Following on from yesterday, there's an AUN article in the SMH today.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/austars-ray-of-light-20090528-boyz.html

From todays charts, there's a bit of an insto buy/sell  tussle going on with PPX (current broker ave. price target is .76).


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## bowman (29 May 2009)

I'm hoping today is the day the AUN shorters burn.


In at .72 and looking for the covering rally.


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## Boggo (31 May 2009)

Potential ABC of W.2 completed, nice close on higher volume on Friday.

(click to enlarge)


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## saiter (31 May 2009)

When you are trying to buy into a downtrend/pullback, do you guys use really tight stops? If so, how often do you get stopped out before the trend changes?


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## Boggo (1 June 2009)

saiter said:


> When you are trying to buy into a downtrend/pullback, do you guys use really tight stops? If so, how often do you get stopped out before the trend changes?




I use MTPredictor to scan for these patterns but probably only one in every thirty found really stand out, JBH below was one of those.

The trick I find with these setups is to have a few things line up and in a stable market you can get the stop to breakeven quite often.
As with any system you will have more losers than winners but you can really minimise the amount of losers by getting as much as possible to "fit"

The example by skc in his chart of MGR in post #9 is a good example, the bar on the 20th was the turning point.

In the chart below of JBH I try to demonstrate what I mean, ie. the retracement is in the right area, the close on the bar on the 10th was where the reversal should occur, the pattern looks symetrical, it has closed the gap left in the 1 or A up leg and my indicator is coming off the bottom.

I am no pro by any means when it comes to this stuff but when I find these I go for them, I hope the charts are self explanatory.


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## So_Cynical (1 June 2009)

saiter said:


> When you are trying to buy into a downtrend/pullback, do you guys use really tight stops? If so, how often do you get stopped out before the trend changes?




8 or 10% stop...depending

haven't been stopped since Sept....i dont day trade or anything.


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## bowman (1 June 2009)

Re stop losses:

For daytrades I have virtually zero tolerance - if the entry is wrong I bail immediately and often re-enter lower down.

My other trades are usually initially entered with 1/3 to 1/2 of the total position. The stops are mostly based on previous technical supports or other technical analysis so the % varies.

If I get into a trade for fundamental reasons as well, and I'm confident of my research, then I may decide to not use a stop at all, especially if I only buy a 1/3 position. I'll re-examine my entry, look at other factors such as whether the stock is being heavily shorted, the state of the broad market, and then look at where to place a second entry.

In my last 60 trades,  I got stopped out 14 times and the majority were on daytrades.


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## bowman (1 June 2009)

I seem to have a pretty big pullback watchlist today and here's five from that list. RMD for the bottom pickers.


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## bowman (1 June 2009)

bowman said:


> I'm hoping today is the day the AUN shorters burn.
> 
> 
> In at .72 and looking for the covering rally.




Thank you shorters.More gains to come I would think.


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## skc (1 June 2009)

HVN. The last two candles signal a low risk entry imo. Should rise and fall with the overall market sentiment.


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## skc (1 June 2009)

ORG...Pretty deep retracement for a strong stock. May be coming to an end?


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## Real1ty (1 June 2009)

skc said:


> ORG...Pretty deep retracement for a strong stock. *May be coming to an end?*




That is my opinion and i entered today at $14.81


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## skc (1 June 2009)

Real1ty said:


> That is my opinion and i entered today at $14.81




Good on you. I am waiting for ~$15.5 the recent mini-high as confirmation the down leg is over.


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## Real1ty (1 June 2009)

skc said:


> Good on you. I am waiting for ~$15.5 the recent mini-high as confirmation the down leg is over.




That is the safer trade but lately riskier moves have paid off well for me, so i'm riding the wave while it lasts.

Hopefully we are both on this wave sooner rather than later :bowser:

Cheers


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## skc (2 June 2009)

PTM. Got in this morning on break of yesterday's high...

61.8% was tagged perfectly.


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## Boggo (2 June 2009)

Nice work skc, potential wave 3 target of over $6 there if everything holds up.


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## bowman (2 June 2009)

CSS may have support at these levels.


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## skc (2 June 2009)

Boggo said:


> Nice work skc, potential wave 3 target of over $6 there if everything holds up.




Is the $6 target based on wave equality? I remember seeing your other charts saying minimum vs typical target. How are they calculated?



bowman said:


> CSS may have support at these levels.




Chart looks good, but I am allergic to seafood when it comes to trading


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## bowman (2 June 2009)

skc said:


> Chart looks good, but I am allergic to seafood when it comes to trading




LOL

CSS is not without risk. The recent sell off was on big volume.

Looking a bit fishy you think? :


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## Boggo (2 June 2009)

skc said:


> Is the $6 target based on wave equality? I remember seeing your other charts saying minimum vs typical target. How are they calculated?




My 
Five main price points on this pattern are at 4.39 (ABC complete), 4.55 (W.3 or B in progress), 5.15 (wave equality), 5.59 (area of resistance) and 6.15 (typical W.3).

(click to enlarge)


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## bowman (3 June 2009)

Five from todays watchlist.


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## skc (12 June 2009)

PPT traced out a text book ABC to tag 50%. Upside potential $38-$42


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## bowman (15 June 2009)

Five possibilities for this week.


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## bowman (22 June 2009)

I'm starting the week off cautiously with small positions (if any) going long. If there are any positive leads this week from the US at all, chances are they could be weak.

The last two charts below are based on the TD Sequential system which I stumbled across recently and have been trialling for the last three weeks with good success.

There's a PDF download describing the system on the first link on this Google page:

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=...+trading+with+TD+sequential&btnG=Search&meta=


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## bowman (23 June 2009)

bowman said:


> I'm starting the week off cautiously with small positions (if any) going long. If there are any positive leads this week from the US at all, chances are they could be weak.




Or they could just be cr@p. 

Nothing much to smile about today but possibly PAG could have a little run.


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## bowman (24 June 2009)

I'm having a look at PPX with the TD Sequential count system. The first 9 bar count (the setp) went pretty much nowhere and now the second, 13 bar count (the countdown) is complete and is a possible turning point.

The trend channel lines are mine and not part of the TD system.

There were three changes in holding announcements yesterday, (all increases) from Westpac, Orbis and BT Investments.


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## Boggo (24 June 2009)

MCR, seems to tick most of the boxes.

(click to enlarge)


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## Boggo (24 June 2009)

WPL, dependent on the POO etc but looks ok 
(I am long on WOK6.sfc)

(click to expand)


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## Boggo (25 June 2009)

PEM, seems to fit a standard 50% retracement.

(click to enlarge)


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## bowman (25 June 2009)

Boggo said:


> PEM, seems to fit a standard 50% retracement.
> 
> (click to enlarge)




Nice timing on PEM


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## bowman (29 June 2009)

PRW may have upport around the 200 day simple moving average.


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## bowman (1 July 2009)

Watching these today for a break up.


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## bowman (1 July 2009)

NAN is making a move - looking to get on if I can.

SSM is a possibility but there's insto's buying and selling so it may be a slow ride (like PPX).

Had a quick trade on ERJ and holding TOE.

BPT - would have like to seen this earlier.

Also watching ASL VMG NMS WHN JPR PRW FSE CXM SAE SUR ELK.


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## bowman (2 July 2009)

NGF USA and CUL

Maybe ERJ again today too.


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## skc (2 July 2009)

SKI...

The gap created by last month's breakout from a 2-month box has been filled.

Retracement is essentially 62%, and has been strong in the past couple of days, bouncing off 50 day SMA.

Fundamentally trading at >10% yield.

Disclosure: I have a few from the breakout.


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## bowman (7 July 2009)

skc said:


> SKI...
> 
> The gap created by last month's breakout from a 2-month box has been filled.
> 
> ...




SKI forming an ascending triangle pattern now. The Utilties sector is the strongest by far today so SKI could be in a good position to break up.

Just made a quick list of a few other Utilities stocks to keep an eye on - BBP ENV DUE EWC HDF TSI VIR.


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## skc (7 July 2009)

A few retracement trades for those who feel long...


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## skc (10 July 2009)

NOD. This one looks complete, but who knows.

Funnymentally PE is a super low 3.6 and pays a dividend apparently last year at 7.5c. They make demountable buildings for schools / miners etc so make your own judgement about their prospects.


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## bowman (24 July 2009)

skc said:


> NOD. This one looks complete, but who knows.




Sure was complete - nice swing up in NOD since this call 

Possible turning point in BLR with the TD Sequential count at bar nine.
First fib support is further down around .07c so that may be support if the TD count fails.


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## bowman (24 July 2009)

GRR is at 62% retrace.


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## Boggo (31 July 2009)

Just an interesting fib retracement chart.

(click to enlarge)


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## bowman (6 August 2009)

RCP back to 62% retrace.


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## skc (21 August 2009)

Bit quiet around here. I think there would be a few of these coming up...

LGL - ABC retracement down to 61.8%. Showing a tiny little bit of sign of life today... I don't really follow gold, but from what I know the gold price hasn't fallen to the same extent as LGL.

Discl. I am long LGL as part of a pairs trade


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## skc (21 August 2009)

GNC

Pulling back to fill the gap at ~$7.5 which coincide with 61.8% of the recent up leg. Also matches the resistance from recent break out at $7.6. So a few things in alignment here.


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## bowman (21 August 2009)

skc said:


> Bit quiet around here. I think there would be a few of these coming up




Been too busy trading those mad but lucrative news driven spikes like SSC, ACS and GDA, but here's one that spiked a couple of weeks ago and is now back to the 62% Fib.

I'll dig through my watchlists over the weekend and no doubt unearth a few more.


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## bowman (23 August 2009)

Maybe some possibilities here.


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## So_Cynical (23 August 2009)

DXS - Dexus property caught my attention.
.


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## bowman (27 August 2009)

Bit of a buy/sell tussle going on here for a few days and it's hard to know whether todays opening gap will get filled later in the day.


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## skc (27 August 2009)

MCR... hitting 38.2% retracement from recent high. Hasn't got much immediate support below current price level to trade off however.


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## Kryzz (3 September 2009)

DOM is around the 50% retrace level, nearing previous support/resistance, falling wedge pattern seen on weekly chart, volume has been picking up a bit the last month however with the recent decline, stock up >6% today though.


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## bowman (10 September 2009)

UNX has come back to the 50% retrace and there was a bit of volume there yesterday (along with most U stocks).

Looking for a move up to the 38% level at around 37c, before a further break up.


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## Boggo (10 September 2009)

CSR may be reversing around the 38% level too...

(click to expand)


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## Boggo (16 September 2009)

CVN is in the right area, have we seen the low or is there more downside to come ?

(click to expand)


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## skc (16 September 2009)

Boggo said:


> CVN is in the right area, have we seen the low or is there more downside to come ?
> 
> (click to expand)




Looking promising. High volume reversal today on some good drilling results. 

Any gap fill might offer very low risk entry.

I hold a few.


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## Boggo (16 September 2009)

skc said:


> Looking promising. High volume reversal today on some good drilling results.
> 
> Any gap fill might offer very low risk entry.
> 
> I hold a few.




Agree, may be a bit of resistance around the 57 to 58 area that needs to be overcome.


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## skc (16 September 2009)

AXA - 50% retracement holding well on today's bar.

PGA - not the cleanest of patterns, but in the 61.8% retracement zone. Someone fatfingered a trade today by the looks. Recent 1-for-2 placement done at $1.5


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## skc (17 September 2009)

NUF. Retracement at 61.9%. The gap is only half filled, however.

Take over discussions are ongoing one presumes.


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## skc (30 September 2009)

skc said:


> NUF. Retracement at 61.9%. The gap is only half filled, however.
> 
> Take over discussions are ongoing one presumes.




This turned out quite to the script...


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## skc (5 October 2009)

Two biggest gold players showing similar patterns. Great gap fill on LGL, but not quite there yet for NCM. 

All depends on the spot gold price I suppose.


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## johnnyg (7 October 2009)

skc said:


> Two biggest gold players showing similar patterns. Great gap fill on LGL, but not quite there yet for NCM.




I think these 2 will be up up and away now skc. Disappointed I didn't set-up a reentry on LGL after getting stopped out on the 25/9/09.


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## skc (7 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> I think these 2 will be up up and away now skc. Disappointed I didn't set-up a reentry on LGL after getting stopped out on the 25/9/09.




I got stopped out at $2.92, re-entered at $2.86 with super tight stop $2.79... pure luck.

For a goldy yet to reach new high, check out MDL.


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## skc (8 October 2009)

MMX Reversal seems to be playing out, although it dipped deeper than the 62% fib level.

Not sure how high it will go. Wave equality suggests ~$2.40, but that means it needs to power through $2.15 resistance which has held it back for last few months.

Either way the current R:R is still acceptable. I am riding this as of today.


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## skc (12 October 2009)

SGM is at a place where it should turnaround *if *it is to turnaround.

- 61.8% retracement of last leg up
- Last pivot high at ~$20.3
- Psychological $20 mark has some importance?

If you care about fundamentals, however, scrap metal price is the key.
http://www.purchasing.com/blog/Comm...scrap_prices_dominate_marketplace_chatter.php


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## lukeaye (12 October 2009)

skc,

Funny you should put that up, beat me to it!

not quite on the 61.8% level but on major S/R line.

i bought in today.

As to fundamentals, if i had my ears open to that all the time, id still be short everything


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## skc (12 October 2009)

lukeaye said:


> skc,
> 
> Funny you should put that up, beat me to it!
> 
> ...




With charts like this I will only trade when it starts to show sign of turning around... that also makes stop placement easier.

Where do you place your stop if you don't mind sharing? May be on your trading thread if you wish.


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## Kryzz (12 October 2009)

skc said:


> With charts like this I will only trade when it starts to show sign of turning around... that also makes stop placement easier.
> 
> Where do you place your stop if you don't mind sharing? May be on your trading thread if you wish.




skc, 

what signs do you look for of a turn around? Would you prefer an immediate V shape reversal, consolidation etc? I notice you have the parabolic SAR on your chart, do you use this for entries/stops also? Seems to be a bit of increase in volume on the last couple down days, would that be of concern?

cheers,
shaun


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## lukeaye (12 October 2009)

Hi guys,

What im excited about on this chart, is the last four bars and the volume associated with it. i dont usually try and predict swing points, but this chart is screaming at me to buy.

My entry was at 21.11, my stop loss is at 20.40 based on s/r. my exit strategy is a swing low stop.

My initial profit target is $25. I expect to see a real explosive move to the upside either tomorrow or the next day. i really think its going to be tomorrow though, based on my volume, range analysis. 

But now that ive said it, it probably wont happen! you know how it goes!

i usually wait for a next bar confirmation, but given the tight stop im able to run i have decided to run with it.


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## lukeaye (12 October 2009)

o and here is my chart


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## skc (13 October 2009)

Kryzz said:


> skc,
> 
> what signs do you look for of a turn around? Would you prefer an immediate V shape reversal, consolidation etc? I notice you have the parabolic SAR on your chart, do you use this for entries/stops also? Seems to be a bit of increase in volume on the last couple down days, would that be of concern?
> 
> ...




The end of the run of red bars, and end of the lower daily high would be a must for starters. The sign of a pivot low would also make sense.

I am no expert in reading the volume so no comment on that front.

I use para SAR as a guide only. 

It is very possible that prices keep drifting lower, reaches ~$20.40, trigger everyone's stops (because it's so obvious) and forms a blow off low. That would be a good buy then.



lukeaye said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> What im excited about on this chart, is the last four bars and the volume associated with it. i dont usually try and predict swing points, but this chart is screaming at me to buy.
> 
> ...




That's aggressive. Good luck with the trade. 

I haven't actually decide to trade this yet. The gap on 1 Oct might be closed and price may resume downward from there. My stop entry would be ~$22.5 but even that isn't perfect confirmation that gap close - reverse won't happen. My target would be $30 so the R:R is still there.

I assume Luke you could just go breakeven if that's the case.

I also see no imminent signs of scrap prices turning around. Although I appreciate the often dislocation between fundamental drivers and share price.


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## lukeaye (13 October 2009)

skc said:


> it is very possible that prices keep drifting lower, reaches ~$20.40, trigger everyone's stops (because it's so obvious) and forms a blow off low. That would be a good buy then.
> 
> That's aggressive. Good luck with the trade.
> 
> ...




Yeah i totally agree with you skc, it is an obvious stop out point. and what you have just said, is a very likely scenario.

Well the scrap prices have been absolutely hammered, i agree, but its from this extreme selling that extreme buying may now occur.

I dont usually execute such bottom picking strategies as this, but my volume spread analysis is telling me to buy, so i am following it!

I will run the stop back just under breakeven though, because any reversal from here could see that 20.40 and lower hit pretty easily as you said


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## johnnyg (13 October 2009)

Some good discussion. I like skc think SGM's got potential, but for myself I would wait to see some signs of strength returning.

I feel there is definitely someone happy to take stock on these high volume days, but I just wonder the selling has finished?


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## lukeaye (13 October 2009)

Hi johhnyg,

Yeah i think skc's approach is prob more sensible, and has a higher probabilty,

i just thought id be a bit more aggressive the trade was giving me pretty good R/R.

And my analysis yesterday told me that those large volume small spread days were an indication of short supply and new demand comming in. So far todays move has complied well with the analysis. But the move will need to continue strong tomorrow.


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## skc (13 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> *I like skc *think SGM's got potential, but for myself I would wait to see some signs of strength returning.
> 
> I feel there is definitely someone happy to take stock on these high volume days, but I just wonder the selling has finished?




Today's bar may be the turnaround. Up ~3%... 

Here's another potential setup: MEO

3 wave retracement to ~32% of last leg in a strong trend. Held up well at pyschological 50c level. The decline was sharp and has been only 3 weeks against the uptrend of ~5 months. So the dotted lines are what may happen. If it actually pans out that way it would be a minor miracle.


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## lukeaye (13 October 2009)

Yeah i wouldnt be entering that anytime soon. obeyed 50% level well though.

that stock has had an awesome run. needs a big a-b-c correction

agree with your chart to some extent


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## Boggo (13 October 2009)

Been having a play on the retracements with a few of the bigger stocks using ASX CFD's.

NWS example (click to expand)


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## lukeaye (13 October 2009)

nice chart boggo, could have told me about that earlier!

Ive never really followed that stock, wouldnt know the first thing about it,

looks like a good setup though


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## Boggo (13 October 2009)

lukeaye said:


> nice chart boggo, could have told me about that earlier!




There ya go, just to rub it in


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## skc (14 October 2009)

Boggo said:


> There ya go, just to rub it in




Some street rumours on AMC might generate the next leg up. Let's see.

Chart for today... COF

3 wave retracement into 50-62% zone, pyschological $2 mark approaching. The volume trend not textbook however. This stock can be quite thin and sizable spread...


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

Skc, have also got this one in my watchlist.

I was looking at it two days ago, on its high volume at what i thought to be "support" but i was waiting for a lower spread bar up, on lighter volume, didnt occur. although now it looks very encouraging, i will buy tomorrow if criteria is satisfied.


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## skc (14 October 2009)

lukeaye said:


> Skc, have also got this one in my watchlist.
> 
> I was looking at it two days ago, on its high volume at what i thought to be "support" but i was waiting for a lower spread bar up, on lighter volume, didnt occur. although now it looks very encouraging, i will buy tomorrow if criteria is satisfied.




May be we should swap watchlists 

Still quite thin even on those high volume days... It went ex-div on 12 Oct for 4.5c, probably explains the longer bar and higher volume.

Yielding 4.5% while growing EPS, one could probably buy on fundamentals alone.


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

skc said:


> May be we should swap watchlists
> 
> Still quite thin even on those high volume days... It went ex-div on 12 Oct for 4.5c, probably explains the longer bar and higher volume.
> 
> Yielding 4.5% while growing EPS, one could probably buy on fundamentals alone.




Yeah thats what i like to see though. those thin days show me strong accumulation. The only thing i dont like, is todays price action, low volume and small spread. does this mean we have run out of buyers? or sellers? tomorrows price action will reveal, and if its moving up im gonna be all over it. Gives fairly good R/R as well dont you think


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## Boggo (14 October 2009)

Sometimes the weekly chart gives a better view, a recent example a few days ago was DEX.

This is the weekly of COF 
.


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

Boggo said:


> Sometimes the weekly chart gives a better view, a recent example a few days ago was DEX.
> 
> This is the weekly of COF
> .




From a weekly perspective the a-b-c decline looks almost complete. c is now equal to a.

It just hasnt been a very big decline


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

Heres one i entered today, It isnt textbook but its pretty close.

Once again an aggresive trade, although provides great R/R.

Running very tight stop. noticed some accumulation in the blue highlighted areas.

Stock has been providing some nice micro patterns as well (triangles)

Out of interest anyone end up entering SGM?


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## skc (14 October 2009)

lukeaye said:


> Out of interest anyone end up entering SGM?




Got into SGM yesterday at $21.65. Stop to breakeven now. It should come off clean and not look back.


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

50% level acted as support, nice accumulation occuring. 

Got confirmation from support, will enter tomorrow


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

skc said:


> Got into SGM yesterday at $21.65. Stop to breakeven now. It should come off clean and not look back.




I hope your right. Its funny scrap metal prices acutally dropped again last night.

Just goes to show, that fundamentals are uselss in the current market.

i also owned an oil company, and oil went through the roof last night, yet the **** came out of it today.


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## johnnyg (14 October 2009)

Good work on SGM. Today's bar is probably the best the stocks seen in weeks.


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

fortunetly it set up really well. best stock in my port at the moment


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## skc (14 October 2009)

lukeaye said:


> fortunetly it set up really well. best stock in my port at the moment




So you didn't catch the gold trades!

Anyway, is this one on your watch list? From the healthcare sector as well. The strong Aussie hurts this guy a bid though. I will be more interested closer to $13, or may be even a gap fill at $12.9.


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## lukeaye (14 October 2009)

na i pulled out emotions got the better of me. Started to listening to everyone.

True story, somebody showed me a list of all professional trades/forecasters,

technical analysists and fundamental, and the question was, when will we get our pullback? 35 out of 40 said now, and that was when the market was pulling back a few days ago.

So my emotion got the better of me, and i locked in my profits, and unfortunately (loss) on gold.

I dont listen or read anybodys elses opinion anymore, and i will never again.

SHL no i dont have that one! i was following csl, but see if you can pick whats going on there, the dollar also really hurts it as well.

SHL is looking much better then csl though. i guess we will want to see a volume increase and small spread now for some support aye SKC


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## bordercityfirm (15 October 2009)

Hi this my first post on this thread so please be gentle with me!  I have held TEX now for some time and have great feelings about it at the moment, as you can see from the chart below they are currently at 100% retrace???(please tell me if I'm wrong, kinda of learning as I go along).  Also could you say there is a triple bottom accompanied with high volume (daily chart) or I'm I clutching at straws.  Constructive critisim very welcome. Thanks


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## bordercityfirm (15 October 2009)

sorry here is the retrace chart:


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## Boggo (15 October 2009)

lukeaye said:


> i was following csl, but see if you can pick whats going on there,




ABC completed, ready to turn imo.


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## lukeaye (15 October 2009)

COF took off today as discussed, i am innnnnn


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## lukeaye (15 October 2009)

and tap oil, gee things are linely up nicely, almost a little to well


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## lukeaye (15 October 2009)

Was looking at the 1 min from sims today, and noticed some fairly large volume sells and buys. Could the first move have been a bear trap? that was bought up buy the "professional" after nobody joined in selling?

Or have we reached a point where some sellers/buyers are going to have to be knocked out of the market before we can continue higher or lower?

probably not the right thread but i figure we are all following this stock anyway


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## skc (15 October 2009)

bordercityfirm said:


> Hi this my first post on this thread so please be gentle with me!  I have held TEX now for some time and have great feelings about it at the moment, as you can see from the chart below they are currently at 100% retrace???(please tell me if I'm wrong, kinda of learning as I go along).  Also could you say there is a triple bottom accompanied with high volume (daily chart) or I'm I clutching at straws.  Constructive critisim very welcome. Thanks




A mandatory feature I look for is that the stock must be in an uptrend. There is no retracement / pull back to speak off unless there was nice clean strong moves beforehand.

I don't see it in TEX. It still might be a valid trade, but not something I would go for on this criteria.

Welcome to the thread and keep them coming


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## lukeaye (15 October 2009)

bordercityfirm said:


> Hi this my first post on this thread so please be gentle with me!  I have held TEX now for some time and have great feelings about it at the moment, as you can see from the chart below they are currently at 100% retrace???(please tell me if I'm wrong, kinda of learning as I go along).  Also could you say there is a triple bottom accompanied with high volume (daily chart) or I'm I clutching at straws.  Constructive critisim very welcome. Thanks




hi there,

If something retraces 100%, then it is not a pullback, its a failure.

The reason a stock will pullback to a 50% level or a 61.8% level is because there is "demand". if a stock gets to these levels and then continues to move down then it has failed to find support or demand.

There is no way i would enter the stock at this stage. BUT having said that,
if i was holding the stock, i wouldnt sell either.

That high volume could be some accumulation occuring, so it is very likely it could see higher prices soon. so good luck!


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## beerwm (15 October 2009)

so with trading pullbacks... where are we all setting our stops?

I usually wait for some support to settle; then a retrace up [ reversal ]
then place the stop at a low of the pullback.

--- with the difference between reversal and entry being between 1-2 ATR.


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## So_Cynical (15 October 2009)

bordercityfirm said:


> Hi this my first post on this thread so please be gentle with me!  I have held TEX now for some time and have great feelings about it at the moment, as you can see from the chart below they are currently at 100% retrace???(please tell me if I'm wrong, kinda of learning as I go along).  Also could you say there is a triple bottom accompanied with high volume (daily chart) or I'm I clutching at straws.  Constructive critisim very welcome. Thanks




Its a 6 million dollar oil speckie...whats gona drive the price up?, sometimes there's valid / fundamental reasons for sustained SP declines.

----------------------

Meanwhile ive got a Pull back trade in the making (i Believe) one of my well watched holdings has paid its latest divi and is heading south.

Ill be looking to buy in again, and under 84 would seem to be the go.IMO
.


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## lukeaye (15 October 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Its a 6 million dollar oil speckie...whats gona drive the price up?, sometimes there's valid / fundamental reasons for sustained SP declines.
> 
> ----------------------
> 
> ...




wowa look at those volume spikes, do you know what is causing that? thats some serious buying. Id be happy with a 90 cent entry? and a stop at 88 cents, then if triggered id just rebuy at 86 if 84 held. but thats my agressive style  based on a 40 - 50% retrace for wave 4

But yes looks to be setting up well


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## skc (3 November 2009)

Thanks to the overall market in the last week, there are quite a few of these popping up. The question is whether they can turnaround enough for a trade, or will they tag your stop entry and head South straight away...

NOD. Are we due for a wave V swing up? Or is it further SP decline after the completion of an ABC counter trend up swing? Either way, 70c feels important.




PPX. 5-wave advance followed by a smooth slippery slide back to 62% level.


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## Boggo (3 November 2009)

ABY may be a candidate perhaps...

(click to enlarge)


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## skc (3 November 2009)

DOM. It's a 6 month ascend followed by a solid 6 month decline. Don't these guys mine gold? Curious they don't seem to correlate to the gold price at all.


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## skc (8 December 2009)

Been quiet around here... plenty of these popping up. Due to softness in overall market, however, they are not moving up as clean as they did a few months ago.


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## skc (8 December 2009)

And a few more...

I like PTM... based on what it's peer PPT has done off the recent low.


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## skc (7 January 2010)

With the market moving up quite a few of the recent picks are finally turning around, but some sank lower before turning around. 

LNG came up today as a fib retracement completed, recent gap fill, tight stop opportunity.


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## Kryzz (7 January 2013)

Time to bump this thread, especially in current market conditions, many opportunities popping up. 

Already holding AUT.

AWE, an order is pending.


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## Kryzz (6 July 2018)

How about another crack at bumping this thread! The potential breakout thread and related threads seem to garner some interest, not so much pullbacks though.

NWL is one of my long term holds, got in close to the IPO date. Has been taking a breather the past six weeks, in a strong industry. Is up +8% this week.


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## barney (6 July 2018)

Just noticed your "bump" Kryzz ….

Retracement trades are pretty much all I'm interested in the bulk of the time (On Specs that is) so I'm definitely interested in the thread …  (Forex can be a totally different kettle of bananas!)

@tech/a has the momentum trading down pat when buying highs that extend ….. I cant seem to get that style of trading correct enough so prefer buying when a stock with obvious potential has temporarily been "forgotten" by the market ….. 

For me it represents less risk … but the downside is you generally need to allocate more time for a trade to develop ….. The upside is, (assuming your analysis is good/correct), you can scale into a trade more easily …. Horses for courses I guess


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## Kryzz (6 July 2018)

barney said:


> Just noticed your "bump" Kryzz ….
> 
> Retracement trades are pretty much all I'm interested in the bulk of the time (On Specs that is) so I'm definitely interested in the thread …  (Forex can be a totally different kettle of bananas!)




If you have any specs you're keeping an eye on Barney from a retracement perspective, would be great if you could post a few of the names you're keeping an eye on!


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## Kryzz (8 July 2018)

Another one for the list here, BAP. Tagged the 50day on Thursday after taking out a prior pivot low, would need the most recent low to hold.

I have also included SBM which had a similar setup too, where the 50day was tagged after taking out a pivot low and shot higher.


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## Kryzz (10 July 2018)

ANN another one for the watchlist for a potential pullback setup to the 50day and support zone.


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## Wysiwyg (11 July 2018)

Kryzz said:


> Another one for the list here, BAP. Tagged the 50day on Thursday after taking out a prior pivot low, would need the most recent low to hold.



Be interesting to see if this is tradeable and goes on from the 6.97 top. 6.93 was turned away recently too.


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## Wysiwyg (11 July 2018)

Kryzz said:


> ANN another one for the watchlist for a potential pullback setup to the 50day and support zone.



Lower trend line is 27.05 - .10 so trade wise it could be an entry. Break that with momentum and not so i.m.o.


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## Kryzz (12 July 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Lower trend line is 27.05 - .10 so trade wise it could be an entry. Break that with momentum and not so i.m.o.




Bounced off the 50day on Wednesday but a weak close today.

ALX another code that came up in a scan today (have just got onto Pro Realtime, lots to learn!)

Price tightening up above support


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## Kryzz (14 July 2018)

SAR came up when browsing today. Heavy volume on Wednesday and also undercutting the lows set in June. Seems to fit the definition of a pocket pivot. I've only  across William O'Neil and Mark Minervini in the past few weeks and must admit have been glued to YouTube videos since. 

Would love to hear @Tech/as thoughts on with regard to a VSA opinion!


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## bngood (15 July 2018)

FMG here's a great FIB chart.  Low on 21.1.2016 High on 22.2.2017 and now has retested the 50%  fib line twice.  Still under a downward trend line.  Interesting to watch.


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## bngood (15 July 2018)

PAB retraced to the 50% Fib line and tested it. Also the VCB is right on the 50% fib line. Interesting.


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## tech/a (15 July 2018)

Kryzz said:


> Another one for the list here, BAP. Tagged the 50day on Thursday after taking out a prior pivot low, would need the most recent low to hold.
> 
> I have also included SBM which had a similar setup too, where the 50day was tagged after taking out a pivot low and shot higher.
> 
> ...




Why and how would you have placed a buy on the green arrowed bar
And not the other similar bars before it?
The only bar that shows a confirmation is the current bar
The only condition I see as possible to set a trade with least
Risk and confirmation is a break of the high.


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## Kryzz (24 July 2018)

Kryzz said:


> ANN another one for the watchlist for a potential pullback setup to the 50day and support zone.
> 
> View attachment 88270



ANN took off today after bouncing out of the support zone nicely. 

APX been down for four weeks in a row now with declining volume, have to see how this weekly bar closes.


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