# Investing in the Banks



## S73417H (27 January 2009)

Right now I am preparing to invest in the banks. My current plan is to make my move mid February after the Aussie financials are released. Whilst I have a good mind of which banks I will be investing in, I was curious as to other peoples' views of which are likely to be the performers in the coming years.

If you are investing or planning to invest in the banks, who have/would you choose?


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## Joe Blow (27 January 2009)

S73417H said:


> If you are investing or planning to invest in the banks, who have/would you choose?




For those participating in this thread don't forget to add "why" you would invest in a particular bank.


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## marklar (27 January 2009)

BEN - It's been trading in a channel between $9 and $14 for the past 12 months, it's approaching $9 at the moment, not directly impacted by sub-prime mess, well supported by the local community, purchase of Macquaries' margin loan portfolio is a positive.

m.


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## S73417H (27 January 2009)

Joe Blow said:


> For those participating in this thread don't forget to add "why" you would invest in a particular bank.




Cheers! Of course the "why" is the most important part of the entire equation.


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## So_Cynical (27 January 2009)

Suprised no one has posted this story yet...

_Big Four Australian banks join global elite...the crisis in the financial system catapulted 
all four majors into the ranks of the top 20 global banks for the first time.

As a result Australia's big banks are expect to grab new business opportunities and draw 
the attention of more international investors, The Australian reported.

On stock market capitalisation, Westpac is now considered the world's ninth-largest bank, 
with a worth of $US28.2 billion ($43.2 billion), ahead of Commonwealth Bank  at No15, 
National Australia Bank at No17 and ANZ at No19. _

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24963177-14334,00.html

Personally i would tend to avoid Westpac because there product range is just not 
competitive with the commonwealth and id avoid ANZ simply based on how they 
handled the whole OPES prime mess.


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## MrBurns (27 January 2009)

CBA simply because it's the bank of the Govt and should be the last to go.


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## MrBurns (27 January 2009)

Joe Blow said:


> Want to talk about Aussie Property? Visit Aussie Property Forums!




I really recommend you incorporate property within this site, and rename this site if need be.
Even though I want to talk about property I want to remain within this site . I think most would agree


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## S73417H (28 January 2009)

It would seem from these poll results that there is some good support both for investing in the banks and for staying out of them.  I guess this issue will just come down to timing in the end.


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## honey85 (28 January 2009)

CBA! Because it was my first investment and was a positive one

If you really need to invest in banks, I will still choose CBA.


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## Go Nuke (29 January 2009)

WBC because I think it has less exposure to bad debt than some of the other banks.

Just aquired a whole lot more customers too through the SGB takeover.


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## S73417H (29 January 2009)

Go Nuke said:


> WBC because I think it has less exposure to bad debt than some of the other banks.
> 
> Just aquired a whole lot more customers too through the SGB takeover.




This reasoning seems to be in line with many of the opinion articles and professional recommendations that I have come across.  And for that matter, I tend to agree.  WBC seems to be in a fairly strong position.  That said, I would more than likely split an investment between WBC and CBA in order to diversify in that sector a bit more.


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## dmagnus (30 January 2009)

lately CBA has just been pissing everyone off and commsec really sux too so boo, cant believe Im the only one that picked NAB


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## agathos (30 January 2009)

For my 2 cents worth of opinion,
I was with a doctor this afternoon, having a chat.

He mention that he has been picking up WBC since year 2000.
That was when WBC was about AUD$12-13 bucks.

I bought some WBC twice recently.
But I plan to exit the bank market soon.

My reason being - a friend in Citibank says - the bank bad debt in US has only reached Round #1.  Next round , Ding ! Ding! , Round #2, have not come about yet!

I personally think bank will fall even lower................
Not stuff that people want to hear about these days..........

But I think Oil & Gold are better bets (just purely my personal opinion).

Again, opinion is just one thing........

Just 12 months ago, everyone was banging and harping on banks to go balistic
Each and every bank has gone down bang bang bang.......

So, only TIME will tell..............cheers mates...........Agathos.


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## marklar (20 February 2009)

marklar said:


> BEN - It's been trading in a channel between $9 and $14 for the past 12 months, it's approaching $9 at the moment, not directly impacted by sub-prime mess, well supported by the local community, purchase of Macquaries' margin loan portfolio is a positive.



Yeah, what would I know? It closed today at $7.62.

m.


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## nunthewiser (20 February 2009)

marklar said:


> Yeah, what would I know? It closed today at $7.62.
> 
> m.




 i stopped out from 8.50 to 8.10

entrys 10.06, 9.50, 9.00




loss ....not happy as was entering for investment purposes and it cost me a penny in fact a few

sheet happens , teach me to not regard "investment " entrys and stop triggers the same as normal trade discipline useage


live and learn


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## roofa (20 February 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Suprised no one has posted this story yet...
> 
> _Big Four Australian banks join global elite...the crisis in the financial system catapulted
> all four majors into the ranks of the top 20 global banks for the first time.
> ...




This is one of the reasons that I went for all four recently.
It will be interesting to see the Moodys grading update.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25080195-664,00.html


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## doctorj (20 February 2009)

Moody's press release



> Sydney, February 18, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service commented that it is to reassess Australian bank ratings in light of the deteriorating economic outlook.
> 
> The Australian banking system remains one of the highest-rated in Moody's coverage, with the four major banks carrying Bank Financial Strength ratings of B and deposit and debt ratings of Aa1.
> 
> ...


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## S73417H (20 February 2009)

If WBC hits the 13.50-14.00 dollar mark, im in like wildfire. :


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## doctorj (21 February 2009)

roofa said:


> It will be interesting to see the Moodys grading update.



Bank CDS spreads are blowing out across the world, but it's interesting to see what rating they imply for banks (data provided by Moody's).

Bank Name : Current Rating, CDS Implied Rating, difference between current & implied rating
National Australia Bank : Aa1, Baa1, -6
Commonwealth Bank : Aa1, A3, -5
ANZ : Aa1, Baa1, -6
Westpac: AA1, A3, -5

Bond Implied spreads seem to fit in somewhere in the middle of the two, so I'd take it as a rough rule of thumb.  CDS-market specific issues are probably widening the Current/Implied spread at the moment.


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