# Greece default/exiting Euro?



## grandia3

Greetings fellow investors/traders,

It looks like the euro leaders are having trouble finding the solution for Greece and it seems that default is inevitable, continuous help/fund pouring into Greece is only delaying its default

It seems that the final devastating option for Greece to exit the euro starts to come into mind

Some Greeks also like the idea of exiting euro because they don't want the harsh austerity plan required by the euro

Will the euro finally give the go for Greece to exit?


Either way, the situation currently really bad in Greece (an online friend of mine told me)

Comments/thoughts/discussions are appreciated

edit: oh by the way, if Greece default then there will be blood on the street (c.f. Lehman Brothers 2008)
that is if Greece exit the eurozone, it will be on its own. Greece need to pay those debts, probably by printing money. But, these money will be worthless, and as a lot of banks hold Greece debts, these banks are likely to be doomed


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## nioka

grandia3 said:


> and as a lot of banks hold Greece debts, these banks are likely to be doomed




Why not have the banks that have made bad business decisions go broke. If I make a bad business decision then there is no way that the banks would have any sympathy for you and I. If Greece cant pay its debts then IT IS BROKE.


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## grandia3

that's true. however, it comes with the consequences

if suddenly a lot of banks collapse, then, logically people will be scared and take their deposit out of the existing banks (which is termed bank run)

then the economic theory says there will be recession since there is not enough saving for investment by firms

and, what is worse our ASX is highly likely to be affected (this is what all of us interested in, isnt it?  )


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## basilio

There is an excellent story in The Guardian which looks at what is likely to happen to Greece if/when it defaults. It uses the Argentina experience in 2001 as a model.

It doesn't examine the knock on effects on the banks in Europe. And of course in 2001 the rest pf the world was in nothing  like the current situation as far as sovereign and personal indebtedness. 

I think if Greece goes down we will all be tied  around necks with the same rope.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/06/euro-crisis-greece-bankruptcy-argentina


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## McLovin

I'm yet to see a credible plan of how to deal with an inevitable private sector default if Greece left the Euro. Almost every business loan, mortgage, credit card held by Greeks would be in default.


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## pixel

McLovin said:


> I'm yet to see a credible plan of how to deal with an inevitable private sector default if Greece left the Euro. Almost every business loan, mortgage, credit card held by Greeks would be in default.



According to Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2011/11/05/greeces-tiny-debt-load/ 
Greece's debt is about $500B; spread across about 11 Million Greeks, it means every Greek man, woman, child owes the world close to $50,000. I wonder if anybody has told them about that fact. What would happen if the Banks called in that debt?

On the other hand, Greece's size is about 130 Billion square-metres - covering the debt at about $4/sqm. : I'll take 10 sqm at the entry to the Acropolis  and charge each tourist a measly 10c toll...


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## tothemax6

They need to accept their mistake and take the medicine. They should never have joined the EU (and that includes all countries involved), which is a dangerous system of excessive political centralization, and they should 'man up' and leave it. 
Sure, the adjustments will hurt, but 'short term pain long term gain' as people used to say.


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## Whiskers

As I understand, Greece has something like $6 Billion in gold reserves. They stopped selling gold some years ago when their debt started getting to be a problem.

While the gov cannot direct their Res Bank to sell gold, I'm curious why their Res isn't selling now to save some pain on it's citizens? Is there some sort of acrimony between them?


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## satanoperca

My logical view of Greece and the EU.

1) Debt is growing faster than available funds to pay interest, no chance of repaying captial, f--kd sooner or later
2) 50% haircut offered as a once off get out of jail free card. Will it allow the Greeks to payoff the remaining debt without throwing their country to the wind, no. Sooner or later they will be back in the same situation as they are now, only a matter of time. 
So what is the next alternative?
3) Fallout of the EU? Well it seems logical that sooner or later this will happen, throwing Greece into turmoil, for the short term, but over time things will settle and the rebirth, growth process can and will occur again.

What does these mean for the rest of the world, who nows but truly an exciting time to live in, our current world economic systems are dying, just depends on how much life support govnuts are willing to provide couteous of tax payers pockets and increasing amounts of debt. 

Cheers


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## prawn_86

Working in currency, since 12 months ago i have said that within the next 4 - 5 yrs at least one country will have left the Euro currency.

All that has happened (at a very basic level) is that debts have been passed from private>government (bailouts) and is now being passed to global governance (eg IMF), but the debt still exists...


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## noirua

:topic

:aus:

Voting at 'The Bull'.

ASF have as difficult a time as Greece at the moment and you are needed at the voting zone - it's not €500 billion Aussie Stock Forums needs, just a minute of your valuable time - a valuable vote indeed.

http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

:thankyou::aus:


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## wayneL

prawn_86 said:


> Working in currency, since 12 months ago i have said that within the next 4 - 5 yrs at least one country will have left the Euro currency.
> 
> All that has happened (at a very basic level) is that debts have been passed from private>government (bailouts) and is now being passed to global governance (eg IMF), but the debt still exists...





I have always questioned how you can have monetary union without fiscal union.

It cannot last long term IMO.


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## notting

Their starting to focus on Italy. Now it gets real.
Greece - I've never seen a prime minister look so happy at the prospect of leaving office!


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## Starcraftmazter

As always, the elites will do what benefits their criminal activities the most. If they wanted to do what is correct, Greece would have never applied for nor been accepted into the EMU.


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## noirua

I don't think Greece matters anymore as it looks as if Italy is all but gone. 
Debts exceeds $2 Trillion with $450 billion repayable in 2012, yes, all the debt is front loaded.
Present interest rate is 6.7% and rising fast.

I believe Germany will pull out of the â‚¬ as France is also in trouble.
The IMF have with-held funds waiting for Greece.

Only hope is a Chinese rescue of Italy who need a minimum $1 trillion backup .

 ASF are also in trouble at 'the Bull' voting zone. We know how Italy feels http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html  :thankyou:  :aus:


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## Aussiejeff

Greece will never default or leave the eurozone.

Why?

Because the Euroboffins have a plan.

The plan is to have no plan.

Brilliant!



> Europe's top economic official Olli Rehn said that *while the European Commission had to be ready for all eventualities, there was no study being conducted of how a country could leave the euro zone, which is not foreseen in the EU treaty.*



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-08/berlusconi-in-trouble-as-eurozone-crisis-deepens/3651304

We are all amused.....


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## grandia3

from what I understand, economy is about studying the past (regression analysis anyone?)

and often in economic books/articles, there is this sentence: "Learning from the XXX history, from XXXX yrs etc"

so when there is no past reference of similar event, they don't know what to do

sit back and relax, and the solution to this problem will be invented in the future 

edit:
additional note:
maybe those officials are too afraid to invent a revolutionary action
just like us, we are too afraid of a sentence which is often appear in law which says "must exercise care and diligence just like what a reasonable person in the position would do"
so what define a reasonable person?


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## pixel

grandia3 said:


> from what I understand, economy is about studying the past (regression analysis anyone?)
> 
> and often in economic books/articles, there is this sentence: "Learning from the XXX history, from XXXX yrs etc"
> 
> so when there is no past reference of similar event, they don't know what to do
> 
> sit back and relax, and the solution to this problem will be invented in the future
> 
> edit:
> additional note:
> maybe those officials are too afraid to invent a revolutionary action
> just like us, we are too afraid of a sentence which is often appear in law which says "must exercise care and diligence just like what a reasonable person in the position would do"
> so what define a reasonable person?



 First Law of Political Science:
*The terms "official administration" and "reasonable person" shall never ever be found in the same context. They are mutually exclusive.*


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## pixel

Aussiejeff said:


> Greece will never default or leave the eurozone.




That was a mere 3 years ago.
And now? There is increased speculation that Greece will be exiting the Euro.
Lots of talk about it in the media: 
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6c377...#axzz3OJuhyhBU
http://rt.com/op-edge/219883-greece-euro-possible-exit/

http://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...-would-look-like/story-e6frflo9-1227178728038

What would the consequences be? Does Greece have to leave the EU? Anyone game to speculate?


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## StockTrader010

pixel said:


> TWhat would the consequences be? Does Greece have to leave the EU? Anyone game to speculate?




If Greece leaves the Eurozone (or the EU), it will set a precedent. It's like opening pandora's box.

What we can be sure of, is that it would definitely lead to a run on the banks (Greek citizens won't want their deposits to be converted to the new Greek currency). At the same time, Greek banks' debt will remain EUR denominated, so any depreciation in the new Greek currency would increase their debt burden. The European banking sector would definitely suffer :.


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## germantrader

StockTrader010 said:


> If Greece leaves the Eurozone (or the EU), it will set a precedent. It's like opening pandora's box. :.




Greece total depts is 300 billion....and keeps growing.

Who's gonna pay it...the european tax payer.

Money wise, the Euro was not a good deal.

The "Euro-Zone" as such could be viewed as a "virtuell country" which creates a bigger political "importance".

I guess the founders back in 2000 dreamed of a united europe.......if that ever comes true?(and is desirable?)


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## pixel

germantrader said:


> Greece total depts is 300 billion....and keeps growing.
> 
> Who's gonna pay it...the european tax payer.
> 
> Money wise, the Euro was not a good deal.
> 
> The "Euro-Zone" as such could be viewed as a "virtuell country" which creates a bigger political "importance".
> 
> I guess the founders back in 2000 dreamed of a united europe.......if that ever comes true?(and is desirable?)




300 Billion Euros ! 
That's a lot of debt for a small country with a population of 11.03M (according to Wikipedia).



> Greece, officially the Hellenic Republic and known since ancient times as Hellas, is a country in Southern Europe and Balkans. According to the 2011 census, Greece's population is around 11 million. Athens is the nation's capital and largest city.
> 
> Related statistics
> GDP per capita 	$21,910.22 USD ‎(2013)
> Gross domestic product 	$241.7 billion USD ‎(2013)
> Life expectancy 	80.63 years ‎(2012)



Let's do some sums:
300B over 11M is 27,200 Euros per capita, or $32,000 USD (2015)

That means, every Greek - whether newborn or past use-by date - has to work 18 months for free to pay back that debt. *And that is the figure if they remain in the Euro-Zone.*
Were Greece to revert to their Drachma, they would still have to convert the repayments into Euros - and you can bet your life that the exchange rate wouldn't be pretty...

But has reason and Mathematics ever stopped a Politician promising prosperity and the brightest future, if only THEY get elected? ... *Nope!*


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## McLovin

pixel said:


> Were Greece to revert to their Drachma, *they would still have to convert the repayments into Euros* - and you can bet your life that the exchange rate wouldn't be pretty...




(my bolds)

They wouldn't necessarily have to convert payments into euros. The more likely outcome remains, imo, that Greek debt defaults by converting into the new drachma. Once they're freed of the euro there's very little the ECB can do to corral Greece into making payments in euros.


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## Klogg

McLovin said:


> (my bolds)
> 
> They wouldn't necessarily have to convert payments into euros. The more likely outcome remains, imo, that Greek debt defaults by converting into the new drachma. Once they're freed of the euro there's very little the ECB can do to corral Greece into making payments in euros.




I can't say I followed the formation of the EU, but I do have to ask - at the time, what was the incentive for countries to handover their ability to print money (i.e. control their own Central Bank/currency)?


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## pixel

McLovin said:


> (my bolds)
> 
> They wouldn't necessarily have to convert payments into euros. The more likely outcome remains, imo, that Greek debt defaults by converting into the new drachma. Once they're freed of the euro there's very little the ECB can do to corral Greece into making payments in euros.




Technically true; I should've said, as the debt is denominated in hard currencies (mainly USD and EUR) the lenders would want repayment of an equivalent amount.
I also left out the option of them simply defaulting. That has happened before with other debtors. But the consequences will be ugly for all involved.

That aside, I agree with our German Trader: The entire idea of a common currency without a common political unit has been an "Impossible Dream". Did Herr Kohl really believe the German economy could pull the rest of Europe out of their Siesta and Early Retirement? Did he believe France and Italy would help? ... Keep dreamn' :1zhelp:


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## McLovin

Klogg said:


> I can't say I followed the formation of the EU, but I do have to ask - at the time, what was the incentive for countries to handover their ability to print money (i.e. control their own Central Bank/currency)?




Boiled down it was about monetary stability and the European Exchange Rate Mechanism's inability to produce it. Going back further, this only became an issue after Bretton Woods collapsed. Europe was integrating (and EU integration was the big thing in the 80s and 90s) and the ERM was not producing the stability required for deeper integration. When Europeans looked across the Atlantic they saw a massive trading bloc (the USA) that they thought they could emulate except with a single currency. Ironically, for smaller countries, like Greece, the single currency in theory should have worked brilliantly; smaller countries tend to have volatile currencies that affect the cost of goods in the domestic economy more and make price stability harder. That worked well.

There's whole books that have been written about the reasons for integration but the above paragraph is my ham fisted attempt at brevity.


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## McLovin

pixel said:


> I also left out the option of them simply defaulting. That has happened before with other debtors. But the consequences will be ugly for all involved.




They are but they're also temporary. Surely it's better than a generation of Southern Europeans living in poverty. The problem is that without any other changes the cycle will just repeat.



pixel said:


> That aside, I agree with our German Trader: The entire idea of a common currency without a common political unit has been an "Impossible Dream". Did Herr Kohl really believe the German economy could pull the rest of Europe out of their Siesta and Early Retirement? Did he believe France and Italy would help? ... Keep dreamn' :1zhelp:




Weren't the French opposed to German reunification unless they agreed to come along on the euro ride? That's a pretty big carrot to dangle!


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## pixel

Klogg said:


> I can't say I followed the formation of the EU, but I do have to ask - at the time, what was the incentive for countries to handover their ability to print money (i.e. control their own Central Bank/currency)?




The incentive was a "United States of Europe" to follow the monetary Unity.
Reality bites:
A. Given the historic national differences, it could only have been dreamt of in the euphoria following the Fall of the Berlin Wall.
B. They put the cart before the horse. Political Unity, or at least common binding fiscal policy, is essential for a common currency. They couldn't even agree on a common design of the Euro banknotes and coins: Each country prints their own "National Treasures" on their bills.


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## Klogg

McLovin said:


> Boiled down it was about monetary stability and the European Exchange Rate Mechanism's inability to produce it. Going back further, this only became an issue after Bretton Woods collapsed. Europe was integrating (and EU integration was the big thing in the 80s and 90s) and the ERM was not producing the stability required for deeper integration. When Europeans looked across the Atlantic they saw a massive trading bloc (the USA) that they thought they could emulate except with a single currency. Ironically, for smaller countries, like Greece, the single currency in theory should have worked brilliantly; smaller countries tend to have volatile currencies that affect the cost of goods in the domestic economy more and make price stability harder. That worked well.
> 
> There's whole books that have been written about the reasons for integration but the above paragraph is my ham fisted attempt at brevity.




Oh awesome response, thanks! If you've read any of these books, are any that you'd recommend?

Thanks again.


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## germantrader

pixel said:


> B. They put the cart before the horse.





Nice way to put it  

Yeah sitting here in europe and seeing the swiss abandoning the euro support.......gives a "falling" feeling.
But well, which country does not increase dept every second? USA probably most.

I was just thinking of buying australen dollars .
Good idea?


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## qldfrog

germantrader said:


> Nice way to put it
> 
> I was just thinking of buying australen dollars .
> Good idea?



Here in australia, we are fleeing to the USD.
If i were you, buy CHF or gold, the economy is shot IMHO and interest rates can still go lower here.
I assume you mean not short term day/week trading but more medium term or long term (months)
And please note: DYOR, this is just what I would do: I am not a qualified advisor and am known as being mostly wrong!


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## StockTrader010

Greece had national elections on Sunday. I wonder whether (and if so, how) the outcome will change the current agreements with the 'trojka'


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## notting

StockTrader010 said:


> Greece had national elections on Sunday. I wonder whether (and if so, how) the outcome will change the current agreements with the 'trojka'




Let's just hope the anti austerity party are a pack of liars like the rest of em and don't follow through with their  pork barrel to oblivion. 
Given they only got the majority using independents, hopefully they can blame that for not doing what they pretended they would.
DAX is up so markets voting so so, so far.


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## StockTrader010

notting said:


> Let's just hope the anti austerity party are a pack of liars like the rest of em and don't follow through with their  pork barrel to oblivion.
> Given they only got the majority using independents, hopefully they can blame that for not doing what they pretended they would.
> DAX is up so markets voting so so, so far.




So far so good. But I guess the real impact will only become clear as they start (re)negotiating the terms of the bailout they received.


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## notting

Aw ASX looks for record highs in real AU$ terms (capital raisings and so ons included)

No worries.  She'll be right mate ~

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2941373/Do-not-humiliate-Greece-s-finance-minister-pleads-Germany-reminds-nation-debts-World-War-ahead-talks-debts.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline


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## pixel

from FNN Midday News: 







> Following negative leads from the US and Europe, the Australian share market opened lower and is half a per cent down at noon. A slew of half year earnings reports are also setting the market mood as investors digest the *potential showdown between Greece and the Eurozone.*



(my bolds)


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## DeepState

I liked this one from Mauldin:


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## StockTrader010

Makes sense. Almost all Greek debt is owned by the ECB and IMF. They are definitely in a better bargaining position now, compared to 2,5 years ago.


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## notting

Greek used car salesman prime minister starting to look very stupid.
No stagger left just a knitted brow.
Should go down in history as a buffoon who took a cheap shot to become the idiot prime minister for a moment.


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## Bintang

notting said:


> Greek used car salesman prime minister starting to look very stupid.
> No stagger left just a knitted brow.
> Should go down in history as a buffoon who took a cheap shot to become the idiot prime minister for a moment.




Notting, why do you say this just now?
All the players in this saga look pretty stupid to me.
But the 'fat lady hasn't sung yet' so the question still is,  'how is this gonna end'?


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## Bintang

Some kind of 'deal' has supposedly been worked out between EU and Greece but I'm struggling to make any sense of it. I think it just means the can has been kicked down the road for another 4 months.
I feel sorry for the can. It's really taking a beating.


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## StockTrader010

Bintang said:


> Some kind of 'deal' has supposedly been worked out between EU and Greece but I'm struggling to make any sense of it. I think it just means the can has been kicked down the road for another 4 months.
> I feel sorry for the can. It's really taking a beating.




I think we'll see increased volatility again in the coming weeks, once it becomes clear that the new Greek governement hasn't the faintest idea what they are actually doing


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## drsmith

How long do the Greeks have to get their euros out of the banks and under the mattress ?

To referendum day or less ?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...-to-decide-countrys-fate-20150628-ghzpoh.html


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## waterbottle

drsmith said:


> How long do the Greeks have to get their euros out of the banks and under the mattress ?
> 
> To referendum day or less ?
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...-to-decide-countrys-fate-20150628-ghzpoh.html
> 
> View attachment 63170




It's now a question of how many Euros does the Greek central bank have left?

ECB has axed emergency liquidity assistance to Greece.


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## qldfrog

Bank are closed and currency control on; grexit is finally here...


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## Wysiwyg

Indices gapped down on open today. Idiots over reacting.


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## Trembling Hand

Wysiwyg said:


> Idiots over reacting.




Really!? I reckon its a rather tame response so far. What makes them "Idiots over reacting"?


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## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Really!? I reckon its a rather tame response so far. What makes them "Idiots over reacting"?




Cause china is expected to gap up 2.3% (IG) :


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## Wysiwyg

Trembling Hand said:


> Really!? I reckon its a rather tame response so far. What makes them "Idiots over reacting"?



This Greece news has been expected for weeks. Nothing "unexpected".


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## Trembling Hand

Wysiwyg said:


> This Greece news has been expected for weeks. Nothing "unexpected".




Err thats just not right.


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## luutzu

Hear that next up will be France exiting the Euro. Then Spain then it's the end of the Euro and austerity.
That or they forced the Greeks to an early election and vote this "fringe" gov't out like they did Italy.

Interesting to see if taxpayers will once again bail out the banks that lend to Greece. You can bet on that though.


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## CanOz

> 08:05(GR) Greece govt discloses formal capital controls; Bans bank payments and transfers abroad - financial press- Confirms â‚¬60 daily ATM withdrawals.- Banks to remain closed until July 6th - Source TradeTheNews.com




Should be an interesting open....


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## tech/a

DAX is currently off 470 or 4.5%
75 Off its lows.


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## CanOz

tech/a said:


> DAX is currently off 470 or 4.5%
> 75 Off its lows.





What is your reference Tech? Is that a CFD? 

So how does IG calculate where a market is without having the actual future as a reference? They must have an algorithm that calculates it based on several international indices...

IG Markets German 30 CFD

The ES 09-15 has gapped down and is currently *-1.32%*


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## tech/a

http://www.investing.com/indices/germany-30-futures


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## CanOz

Well the HSI and HHI are selling off so fast now i can even see the depth in the book...


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## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Well the HSI and HHI are selling off so fast now i can even see the depth in the book...




Too many books open...

Interesting how they come up with this when the real futures market (the Eurex) doesn't have a session open right now...must be their brilliant risk managers on the their calculators....

Isn't referring to it as a futures, as well as a CFD an oxymoron?


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## CanOz

Two different quotes....


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## skyQuake

What? I thought DAX futs opens at 4pm

Edit: I see its cfd too


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## sinner

Greece will default. There is no choice on that matter, it's simply mathematics.

What form that default will take is a completely separate consideration. People think default will be some audacious thing, but it can be very stealthy. 

I think the probability of them exiting the Euro is rather low, I assign it to less than 10%.


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## Wysiwyg

Debt forgiveness would be welcomed for this due payment but really this race of people going back thousands of years needs to file for bankruptcy and start again. 

This present scenario has little economic effect on most of the world but regardless, the psychology manifested is mass fear.  It's disappointing but it's what happens when budgets aren't balanced.


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## Tyler Durden

Just wondering why the market has reacted so sensitively to Greece? Surely this wasn't unexpected or unforeseen - the date for payment had been known well ahead of time and the market should've known. Even someone on here a few months back said it would be interesting come the date for payment.

It's almost as if the market has gone "omg Greece may be defaulting!" and reacted, whereas I think the market should've known this all along. And if an individual investor was aware of it, why would they keep buying prior to this date?


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## avion

My feeling was that expectation was that there would be last minute deal as that is the 'usual' outcome of such meetings. So no it was not expected. Nobody knew Tsipras was going to call it to vote.


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## pixel

avion said:


> My feeling was that expectation was that there would be last minute deal as that is the 'usual' outcome of such meetings. So no it was not expected. *Nobody knew Tsipras was going to call it to vote.*




Nobody could reasonably expect that to happen. To the rest of Europe, it's all Greek to them.
What that referendum boils down to: "Do you want to pay your debt? Yes/No."

Sure, it was widely known that Greece would be unable to make the scheduled repayments. For any Lender doing proper Due Diligence, the writing was on the wall for years. Recent discussions and demands were never about that. The Creditors finally demanded, "If you continue to keep asking for extensions, at least start to fix your budget. Cut spending. Stop blustering. Convince us you're worth the additional risk!"


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## Trembling Hand

LOL! Everyone help out can you?  

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story







> The European Union is home to 503 million people, if we all just chip in a few Euro then we can get Greece sorted and hopefully get them back on track soon. Easy.


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## CanOz

lol...Thats a great idea TH...I wonder if Tsipperass would just take the money and run? I mean whats to say he hasn't got some prop jobber making a personal fortune from all these swings and round a a bouts anyway!!


TH, you haven't got a new job working for Greece have you


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## luutzu

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL! Everyone help out can you?
> 
> https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story
> 
> View attachment 63203




The funny thing is the people of Europe will be paying for Greece soon enough - there will be hundreds of billions to bail out the banks that's been lending and playing with Greek assets and bonds.


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## Ald123

Varofakis strikes me as a very sane sober thinker.

Money unfortunately is produced from thin air these days. It is given to the rich to do something with as there is the assumption they can be trusted. These guys spread it amongst themselves but give the debt to the people .
.
If the people were smart they would transfer the risk back to the loan provider. Change the law in Greece. If someone is bankrupt their debts are cancelled.  The lender made a bad investment decision.


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## artist

avion said:


> So no it was not expected. Nobody knew Tsipras was going to call it to vote.




On the contrary, Tsipras and others have been constant in this. They told the Greek electorate what they hoped to achieve vis a vis Greek debt and the austerity regime, and the reasons for their stance - the Greek electorate voted them into power with the expectation that the new government would pursue these goals. 

As negotiations unfolded and it became clear that the troika would not allow the democratically elected government of Greece to fulfill its election pledge Tsipras and others stated publicly, in April 2015 - “If the solution falls outside our mandate, I will not have the right to violate it, so the solution to which we will come to will have to be approved by the Greek people,” Tsipras said. http://fortune.com/2015/04/28/greeces-pm-signals-a-step-back-from-the-brink-with-referendum-talk/ 

Again "Tsipras threatened to call a referendum if lenders insist on demands deemed unacceptable by his leftist government, elected to scrap austerity." and "Pressed on options if no deal were found, Tsipras ruled out snap elections but said the government did not have the right to accept demands "outside our mandate", and any deal that required such terms would have to be put to Greeks in a referendum."  http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/28/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0NJ0FT20150428

In holding the referendum, Syriza is keeping faith with the Greek electorate.

The referendum cannot have come as a surprise to anyone who was paying attention.


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## Logique

I'd forgotten this old Monty Python sketch until the SMH mentioned it today, very funny. Greece and Germany play a football match.   

Using the Insert Video icon didn't embed the Youtube as I'd expected.

[video]https://youtu.be/B6nI1v7mwwA[/video]


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## satanoperca

I think this whole thing is **** end about. 

It should be the 500 million people in the EU Who should be voting to allow Grrece to stay in the EU or give them the boot.

Greece will never and can never repay it debts. It is about time the world started growing some balls and making countries and companies responsible for their actions and debts. These same entities expect people to honour their actions and payback the debts.

Why worry about Greece when China has wiped off the whole capitalization of the ASX in 30 days. Makes Greece look like a tiny pimple on a teenages acne face.


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## notting

notting said:


> Greek used car salesman prime minister starting to look very stupid.
> No stagger left just a knitted brow.
> Should go down in history as a buffoon who took a cheap shot to become the idiot prime minister for a moment.




Four months later.  So it was!

They will vote "Yes", stay in the Euro and adjust their behavior a little toward what they agreed upon in the first place in order to be in the Euro.

Varoufakis and Tsipras should have been locked up for treason and embarrassing the country with the rubbish they were saying even before the 'terrorist comment' which is the ultimate insult and most harmful thing any representative could have stated on behalf of the Greek people.


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## luutzu

notting said:


> Four months later.  So it was!
> 
> They will vote "Yes", stay in the Euro and adjust their behavior a little toward what they agreed upon in the first place in order to be in the Euro.
> 
> Varoufakis and Tsipras should have been locked up for treason and embarrassing the country with the rubbish they were saying even before the 'terrorist comment' which is the ultimate insult and most harmful thing any representative could have stated on behalf of the Greek people.




When something can't go on forever, it will stop. Didn't some wise man said that?

You can't make loans on harsh terms where it would be impossible for people to pay back, and keep at it hoping they can't pay back so they'd have to sell their assets.

Watched interviews with Yanis (something), the Finance Minister... They want to stay in the Euro, want to pay back their debt... but do it by changing their policies. For example, raise tax on the rich, on corporations... the troika said no, they demanded cutting public spending, cut support to employment benefits, no investment to create jobs. They want austerity because it works so well like never before.

It's one thing to lend and expect repayment, it's quite another to expect repayment made through ways you want. That's like the bank lending people and then tell them to have to work at this job and not another job... when they tried and can't repay, tell them to sell their car to you for nothing, or eat less or sell their clothes too.

Well, if it's capitalism and free market... when you make bad loans, you suck it up.


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## wayneL

Sub Prime lending to brokeners in the US.

Sub Prime lending to Greece in the EU.

Same result eventually.

The more they kick the can down the road the worse it will be IMO.


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## cynic

Straw polling indicates that the "OXI" ("NO") vote may be leading by somewhere in the vicinity of 8-10 points.


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## waterbottle

61% voting NO with 35% of the vote counted.

Congratulations? to Greece.

Now to sit back and watch the SHTF in China from any flow on effect


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## CanOz

This is going to be a crazy week......


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## pixel

An interesting spread of views - from noco to luutzu and lots in between.
I guess it will create a burst of volatility in international markets, starting on the ASX in a couple of hours.
How much of that is caused directly by Greece? Or is it simply a case of the Media homing in on any bad news, like -
China's jitters: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=CN:SHCOMP&insttype=Index
Abbott's bad Budget: https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/28677153/budget-at-risk/

Oil down to $55; AUD down to 74c.

It may be prudent to stay calm and wait for the dust to settle and a clear trend to emerge.
The very nimble among us could however take advantage of volatility and snip lots of points from swings.


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## Knobby22

wayneL said:


> Sub Prime lending to brokeners in the US.
> 
> Sub Prime lending to Greece in the EU.
> 
> Same result eventually.
> 
> The more they kick the can down the road the worse it will be IMO.




I agree.
Voting no, the Greeks have acted in their own interest and allowed the Government to force the Euro nannycrats to strike a better deal which should include wiping out some of the debt. Good on them.


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## CanOz

Knobby22 said:


> I agree.
> Voting no, the Greeks have acted in their own interest and allowed the Government to force the Euro nannycrats to strike a better deal which should include wiping out some of the debt. Good on them.




I don't think the general population knows what their doing, i think they're going the route of Argentina. Good luck...

I feel bad for the investors that believed in them. The Greeks are happy to have their comfy state pensions, new infrastructure, but they don't stop and think where its all coming from.


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## notting

The vote is meaningless if the 'no' does not mean leaving the Eurozone.
They may as well not have had a referrendum.
Europe should now ask the Greek people if they want to accept the rules and live according to their means or leave the Eurozone.  

Vote on that.


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## avion

CanOz said:


> I don't think the general population knows what their doing, i think they're going the route of Argentina. Good luck...
> 
> I feel bad for the investors that believed in them. The Greeks are happy to have their comfy state pensions, new infrastructure, but they don't stop and think where its all coming from.




Well said Can.

Tsipras played 'pride' card and won. Just another politician with no spine to admit music have stopped. What a disaster. Just another sign of things to come.


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## CanOz

avion said:


> Well said Can.
> 
> Tsipras played 'pride' card and won. Just another politician with no spine to admit music have stopped. What a disaster. Just another sign of things to come.




Yup....

Now lets move over to the HHI, HSI, and the XINA50 and see if the Chinese can hold the market up today


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## notting

The great face saving victory leads Yanis Varoufakis to resign the following day. :screwy:
Nothing hollow about that.

One to go.


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## drsmith

Can they now lift banking restrictions to any significant extent without a run ?


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## Knobby22

notting said:


> View attachment 63300
> 
> 
> 
> The great face saving victory leads Yanis Varoufakis to resign the following day. :screwy:




I love how he left.
On a motorbike with a blonde on the back.


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## McLovin

It's so simple...


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## notting

After a magnificently proud moment of voting against austerity and being boyed to go in and 'get some' off Mum and Dad (Euro) little Mr Tsipras strides confidently into the negotiating room to be met with -



> You have 48 hours to strike a new bailout deal with eurozone creditors or face a banking collapse, a humanitarian emergency, and the start of an exit from the single currency,





What a hero  :behead:


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## waterbottle

notting said:


> After a magnificently proud moment of voting against austerity and being boyed to go in and 'get some' off Mum and Dad (Euro) little Mr Tsipras strides confidently into the negotiating room to be met with -
> 
> 
> [/SIZE]
> What a hero  :behead:




And how do they plan on forcing Greece out of the Euro?

EDIT: In regards to the guillotine, I am surprised none of the politicians that pushed for a referendum haven't had any "accidents"


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## Garpal Gumnut

From the Townsville Magpie. 



> Things have gotten so bad in Greece that they have stopped production of taramasalata and humous!!
> 
> It’s a double dip recession!!




gg


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## notting

waterbottle said:


> And how do they plan on forcing Greece out of the Euro?




We will give you a bit of emergency funding to feed the starving when you have got the Drachma up and running until then.......

It's an offer they can't refuse. 

I now think from yesterdays retoric that some kind of deal will be done.


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## notting

What you get when a prime minister tells you that voting "No" will get you your leg over the EURO, in order to bolster his pride.' 

[video]https://video-lax1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xap1/v/t42.1790-2/11232911_10153456730681323_1431829724_n.mp4?efg=ey  JybHIiOjY2OSwicmxhIjoxNzM1fQ%3D%3D&rl=669&vabr=372&oh=3c5b7e02d58f98a7652f62ecf633e88e&oe=559E2FBC[/video]


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## pixel

notting said:


> What you get when a prime minister tells you that voting "No" will get you your leg over the EURO, in order to bolster his pride.'
> 
> [video]https://video-lax1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xap1/v/t42.1790-2/11232911_10153456730681323_1431829724_n.mp4?efg=ey  JybHIiOjY2OSwicmxhIjoxNzM1fQ%3D%3D&rl=669&vabr=372&oh=3c5b7e02d58f98a7652f62ecf633e88e&oe=559E2FBC[/video]




Eftpos, Credit and Debit cards would come in very handy; but if you have a burgeoning cash economy, you've got a problems when the banks are closed. Either way, Banks have you by  the short and curlies.


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## CanOz

The cost of the shutdown in Greece....



> 03:15 (GR) Three week shutdown of Greece banks cost the economy an estimated â‚¬3B, not counting lost tourism revenue - press - Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry (EBEA) says some 4,500 containers with raw materials and finished products are blocked at customs. Additionally, â‚¬6B in business transactions were frozen by the bank shutdown.- Retailers lost about â‚¬600M in business, with apparel taking the main blow. Exporters lost â‚¬240M. - Source TradeTheNews.com


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## notting

notting said:


> One to go.







Gone and not a minute too soon.

Yes that's what Tsipras looked like before the hair cut!


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