# The World is on the brink!



## Sean K (24 February 2011)

A series of natural disasters causing massive destabilisation and economic hardship
A global financial crisis with potentially the worst to come
Dozens of States effectively bankrupt
Monarchies and Dictators being overthrown in the Middle East
Most of Africa is in dire straights
Al Qaida simply changed base to Africa and Pakistan
Ill-conceived and un-just wars
China developing a blue water navy
Mexico fighting a war that's killed 30,000 over drugs that make you feel good
Politicians create man made global warming to develop a speaking tour
Australia loses the Ashes again
Julia Gillard is PM 
Bob Katter controls the balance of power
Ricky Nixon. Well, Ricky!!
The list goes on....

Not just a perfect storm.


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## wayneL (24 February 2011)

kennas said:


> Politicians create man made global warming to develop a speaking tour
> Australia loses the Ashes again
> Julia Gillard is PM
> Bob Katter controls the balance of power
> ...




And we're just warming up for 2012??

Beggorah!


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 February 2011)

AND Collingwood won the premiership. 


Its over.


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 February 2011)

Do not despair.

We started off with a big bang from a black hole.

gg


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## Bill M (24 February 2011)

Just as all other wars, natural disasters, stock market crashes, currency meltdowns, Dictators and Prime Ministers, genocide etc. etc. we always move on, always. It is when one of those nutters start firing Nuclear missiles around then that will be game over. I am surprised no country has done that in recent times. (USA on Japan excluded) God help the world when that starts.


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## Sean K (24 February 2011)

Bill M said:


> Just as all other wars, natural disasters, stock market crashes, currency meltdowns, Dictators and Prime Ministers, genocide etc. etc. we always move on, always. It is when one of those nutters start flying Nuclear missiles around then that will be game over. I am surprised no country has done that in recent times. (USA on Japan excluded) God help the world when that starts.



Yep, but in living memory has there being a bigger set of prerequisites for disaster.

Add Danni Minogue judging a 'talent' show..


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## trainspotter (24 February 2011)

Kill yourself now and avoid the rush.

Seriously thinking of moving to Turi Beach Resort, Batam, Indonesia.

Meet me in the Emerald Pool. I will have a jug of Mojito's waiting.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 February 2011)

I have no idea how or why, but when anything trends strongly, it tends to continue that way, whether there is a logic behind the move or not.  

Natural disasters are on a very strong uptrend, which suggests we'll see a lot more of them.  They're also getting bigger, costlier and more destructive.  

Qantas' "chart" of aircraft problems broke out last year after a record flat spell, and has been in a massive uptrend with new problems now a regular occurrence.  They're not getting any more serious thankfully.  No way I'd fly Qantas with that sort of a recent trend though.

Trends do end however.  That's the saving grace - cycles.  Remember the 12 year drought?


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## Sean K (24 February 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I have no idea how or why, but when anything trends strongly, it tends to continue that way, whether there is a logic behind the move or not.
> 
> Natural disasters are on a very strong uptrend, which suggests we'll see a lot more of them.  They're also getting bigger, costlier and more destructive.
> 
> ...



Not sure if it's a trend GB, nor that any particular aspect of this is worse than any other time, just that there's so many different issues contributing to internal and global tension. 

Interesting times indeed.


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## tothemax6 (24 February 2011)

Nothing seems to have changed much here though, has it? Things are still pretty much the same. Few more cents to the litre maybe.
The world is always on a 'brink'. 

The issues we are going to face are bad yes, loss of US dominance, a future china crash, expanding islam etc etc. But there are always good things - technology is still progressing at a cracking pace, north africa might end up being less sh~t, etc etc.
Look on the bright side man!


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## Sean K (24 February 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Nothing seems to have changed much here though, has it? Things are still pretty much the same. Few more cents to the litre maybe.
> The world is always on a 'brink'.
> 
> The issues we are going to face are bad yes, loss of US dominance, a future china crash, expanding islam etc etc. But there are always good things - technology is still progressing at a cracking pace, north africa might end up being less sh~t, etc etc.
> Look on the bright side man!



What's the bright side at the moment?

Essendon in front of Melbourne?

I would like to see some analysis on how close we are to exploding. But that might not be handy...

I'm sure the ducks were lining up in 1939 ish...

The only thing that held the world together the past 50 years was MAD.

I think we might agree that's less likely at the moment.


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 February 2011)

I must admit to being mostly in Property, Cash and Physical Gold.
The fat lady has not even arrived at the opera house.

gg


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## tothemax6 (24 February 2011)

kennas said:


> What's the bright side at the moment?
> 
> Essendon in front of Melbourne?
> 
> ...



I am sure it will hold us for the next 50 years too. To commence a nuclear bombardment, you have to either be suicidal, or be damn sure your gear is way better than theirs. In the former case, this attitude is not conducive to a society technologically advanced enough to do much damage anyway. Your warheads still have to hit their cities to hurt anything, and there is plenty of time and many ways to kill such a missile, if they see it when it is launched. 
Yes, 'peace is the period between two wars', but there have been longer periods of peace than this.


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## Sean K (24 February 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit to being mostly in Property, Cash and Physical Gold.
> The fat lady has not even arrived at the opera house.
> 
> gg



It seems to be just a matter of when.

Like the 'severe and imminent correction' thread was always going to be correct, the timing was all that was suspect.


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I have no idea how or why, but when anything trends strongly, it tends to continue that way, whether there is a logic behind the move or not.



It's hard to explain but I know exactly what you mean. The same thing happens with all sorts of things.

I call it "rat theory". If you've found one rat, then the odds are high that there are plenty more not far away that you will soon also be finding. There's your uptrend...


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## prawn_86 (24 February 2011)

trainspotter said:


> Seriously thinking of moving to Turi Beach Resort, Batam, Indonesia.
> 
> Meet me in the Emerald Pool. I will have a jug of Mojito's waiting.




haha the mrs and I were just wondering tonight how long we could go and live in a 2nd world country for on our savings without having to work.

Let me know the costs and we might join you 



kennas said:


> Interesting times indeed.




And yet the AUD remains strong. Oh how i hope it tanks...


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## Sean K (24 February 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> And yet the AUD remains strong. Oh how i hope it tanks...



 Maybe, but

We seem to be one of the last safe bastions. 

I think it's a measure of your international safety rating. 

Who has beat us the past 2 years?


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2011)

From a practical perspective, one thing seems pretty clear. Consumers aren't likely to be opening their wallets much with all this going on.

Petrol getting more expensive. Electricity to get more expensive (carbon tax). Food. Wars. Earthquakes. Job losses in various industries. Government budget deficits. Various overseas financial crises. Another Qantas "news item" today...

What next? The bad news just keeps coming and that can't be good for consumer confidence.


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## Sean K (24 February 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> From a practical perspective, one thing seems pretty clear. Consumers aren't likely to be opening their wallets much with all this going on.
> 
> Petrol getting more expensive. Electricity to get more expensive (carbon tax). Food. Wars. Earthquakes. Job losses in various industries. Government budget deficits. Various overseas financial crises. Another Qantas "news item" today...
> 
> What next? The bad news just keeps coming and that can't be good for consumer confidence.



It seems to be just disaster after disaster. 

Maybe the media are responsible?


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## IFocus (24 February 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> And yet the AUD remains strong. Oh how i hope it tanks...





AUD has been an excellent measure of markets willing to take on risk..........


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## basilio (24 February 2011)

It is a scary list that Kennas puts out.  Even more scary is the reality that most of these havn't played out yet.

In particular  the squeeze on oil because of the Libyan crisis can only be starting. We haven't seen the effects of the recent jump in oil prices yet (inflation, more pressure on food prices, the  general squeezing of the masses) and we don't know how far it will go. 

Saudi Arabia says it will make up any shortfall... Well and good but there are more than a few analysts who believe the Saudis don't actually have any extra oil they can pump. If that turns out to be the case then peak oil will well and truly have arrived  -- with all the implications that carries.

Ah well... lets party likes it's 1999..


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## Slipperz (24 February 2011)

basilio said:


> It is a scary list that Kennas puts out.  Even more scary is the reality that most of these havn't played out yet.
> 
> In particular  the squeeze on oil because of the Libyan crisis can only be starting. We haven't seen the effects of the recent jump in oil prices yet (inflation, more pressure on food prices, the  general squeezing of the masses) and we don't know how far it will go.
> 
> ...




ASX is still kicking rocks.

Might as well rename it the ARX.. Australian Rock Exchange ( and side interests)


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## tothemax6 (24 February 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> And yet the AUD remains strong. Oh how i hope it tanks...



Why'd you want it to tank?


basilio said:


> Saudi Arabia says it will make up any shortfall... Well and good but there are more than a few analysts who believe the Saudis don't actually have any extra oil they can pump. If that turns out to be the case then peak oil will well and truly have arrived  -- with all the implications that carries.
> 
> Ah well... lets party likes it's 1999..



Dude, its already been established that we've passed peak oil. Our fate now rests with battery technologies.


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## Sean K (24 February 2011)

Slipperz said:


> ASX is still kicking rocks.
> 
> Might as well rename it the ARX.. Australian Rock Exchange ( and side interests)



There is quite a convergence between AS and Chinese interests at the moment. 

Strange. Since we are so fundamentally aligned with the US.

The US must be making some very serious representations under the table to stop us from assisting those nations from moving forward. 

Why should we send natural resources to China if they turn them in to rockets?

I suppose, once that is clear, we stop sending them IO...


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## Julia (24 February 2011)

kennas said:


> It seems to be just disaster after disaster.



That's a very scary list, kennas.  Cannot, however, argue with any item.



> Maybe the media are responsible?



They certainly don't help.  Just listening to one ABC Radio reporter interviewing the Mayor of Christchurch this morning, a bloke who has probably had minimal sleep and done hundreds of interviews amongst trying to contain panic in his city, she insistently, three times, said "how are the people coping?  it must be just dreadful for them", in a tone just really trying to drum up hysteria.

He essentially lost patience with her and said "They're coping magnificently.  They have no choice."

This is just one instance but it does seem the media go looking for misery and hysteria.   I suppose disaster sells, but they should have some sort of ethical responsibility not to inflame situations.

Re the comment (I think from GB?) about trends developing a life of their own or words to that effect, I agree.  It's as though a mood of pessimism and fear quickly pervades communities and it's very contagious.  I don't imagine, also, that I'm the only person in whom this provokes a sense of helplessness.


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## Gringotts Bank (25 February 2011)

So it's settled then.... we're going to buy a remote island off Tasmania and congregate there.  We shall call it Gringott's Island, if no one has any objections.  All donations to my Paypal account.  Thank you and goodnight.


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## skyQuake (25 February 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> So it's settled then.... we're going to buy a remote island _*called*_ Tasmania and congregate there.  We shall call it Gringott's Island, if no one has any objections.  All donations to my Paypal account.  Thank you and goodnight.




fix'd that for u


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## Smurf1976 (26 February 2011)

skyQuake said:


> fix'd that for u



Considering the way the state's economy seems to be going at the hands of our useless politicians from all sides, I suspect you wouldn't actually need that much money to buy Tassie these days.


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## trainspotter (26 February 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> haha the mrs and I were just wondering tonight how long we could go and live in a 2nd world country for on our savings without having to work.
> 
> Let me know the costs and we might join you
> 
> And yet the AUD remains strong. Oh how i hope it tanks...




Rent a local room with shared facilities in a village for $6 per night.

Breakfast = Fried banana and coconut juice = $1.50. Morning market

Lunch = Chicken Tepinyaki = $3.00. Cooked in front of you and struggling to eat all of it.

Dinner - Soto soup = $2.00. Cooked on back of cart and delivered to your front door.

Drinks = $100.00 because it is bloody hot work swimming in the Emerald Pool all day.

Let me know when I meet you over there.


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## Sean K (28 February 2011)

News update today that China is significantly expanding it's nuclear arsenal. Will match the US shortly, although much of their progress has not being as transparent as we'd have thought. Will get to the point when there are three great nuclear powers: US, Russia and China. Having three equal powers in this game is not cool. MAD does not add up.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (1 March 2011)

kennas said:


> News update today that China is significantly expanding it's nuclear arsenal. Will match the US shortly, although much of their progress has not being as transparent as we'd have thought. Will get to the point when there are three great nuclear powers: US, Russia and China. Having three equal powers in this game is not cool. MAD does not add up.



Did you see the missile launch off the coast of LA late last year?


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## Calliope (1 March 2011)

kennas said:


> News update today that China is significantly expanding it's nuclear arsenal. Will match the US shortly, although much of their progress has not being as transparent as we'd have thought. Will get to the point when there are three great nuclear powers: US, Russia and China. Having three equal powers in this game is not cool. MAD does not add up.




Even more scarier is the news that the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has now surpassed Britain's. And Pakistan is a very loose cannon.


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## Sean K (13 March 2011)

This is going to put Japan in bad shape for some time I think. 

Arab league now behind a no fly zone in Libya.

Mexico turning into a war zone.

PIGS not looking any better.

Prime Ministers in court.

Pauline back in Politics.

I suppose if the world finds a way through this almost perfect storm we'll come out stronger.


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## drsmith (13 March 2011)

kennas said:


> Pauline back in Politics.



You won't need to check the operational status of the can opener on that one.


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## Smurf1976 (13 March 2011)

kennas said:


> Mexico turning into a war zone.



Something that many have been predicting for quite some time as an inevitable output of that country's crashing oil production, the source of much wealth in Mexico, as the Cantarell field dries up.


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## Sean K (16 March 2011)

Add to the list the growing food crisis, which could be linked to quite a bit of what's going on.

High food prices feed unrest in developing world

AGAINST the backdrop of revolution in the Arab world and rising tensions in Asia, the International Monetary Fund warns that global food prices are likely to stay high for years, posing new economic and political challenges.


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## Mofra (17 March 2011)

We need a list to balance out the fear.

Human beings right now are happier, healthier and have greater means to support life than at any other stage in human history. 
Disasters that would have taken decades to recover from now only take years (or even months). 
Nations that face disaster now have international help available within hours.

In context, we have faced far, far bleaker times thorughout the course of our history, with less means to prevail, and we have thrived.


(In before someone raises the scary notion of peak phosphorus )


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## derty (17 March 2011)

I think peak oil and food prices/security pose the most imminent and severe threat to global economics and security.


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## prawn_86 (17 March 2011)

Mofra said:


> Human beings right now are happier, healthier and have greater means to support life than at any other stage in human history.




Tell that to the 2 billion + who live on less that $1 per day



Mofra said:


> Disasters that would have taken decades to recover from now only take years (or even months).




Looking at places that still haven't been rebuilt after disasters such as the Boxind Day tsunami so may also not agree with this.

Western society has it great, but i think their is a continually growing imbalance between rich and poor nations


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## Sean K (7 May 2011)

The global situation isn't getting any better and with the events of the past few days it's probably only got worse.

Pakistan is heading toward pariah status with it's obvious sheltering of OBL and then disgust at the US actually doing something about it. (if that's all true of course)

Syria is about to go pear. The world wont stand back much longer there.

The US is now in about $15T debt. Unemployment still around 9%. 

The EU has lost about $300B over the past year or so.

China inflation over 5%.


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## LifeChoices (7 May 2011)

kennas said:


> The global situation isn't getting any better and with the events of the past few days it's probably only got worse.
> 
> Pakistan is heading toward pariah status with it's obvious sheltering of OBL and then disgust at the US actually doing something about it. (if that's all true of course)
> 
> ...




My mum bought me some tablets from the TV - they were on special - so she bought a whole bunch. The directions say I'm meant to take 3 in the morning and 3 at night, but I couldn't be fagged.

What's your address - I'll send you them. I hate seeing good stuff go to waste.


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## Sean K (7 May 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> My mum bought me some tablets from the TV - they were on special - so she bought a whole bunch. The directions say I'm meant to take 3 in the morning and 3 at night, but I couldn't be fagged.
> 
> What's your address - I'll send you them. I hate seeing good stuff go to waste.



I'm all stocked up LC. Of whatever you are offering. Thanks for thinking of me.


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## Glen48 (7 May 2011)

Wait until May 16 when USA reaches it debt ceiling and see what they do and if QE2 runs aground on June 30 the we could be going to hell in a hand basket.

A dirty bomb is the main worry and when it will go off, I assume in some capital city New York, London  Paris.

OBL and his crew forced the Russian to fight an unwinnable war and that sent Russia bankrupt  and most of the troops back to Russia as drug addicts. OBL and crew then outlaid 500K   to send a few planes in to WTC and forced the western world into a war we can't win while we spend money we don't have the Taliban etc continue on watching us destroy our selves, our life style, our banking system and making fools out of elected officials.
 All good financial planning I reckon and the best trade in history.


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## tothemax6 (8 May 2011)

Just though I'd add that I am not seeing anything good in the world at the moment either. There is nothing indicating light at the end of the tunnel. Politicians are still doing everything they can to strangle their economies chance of recovering naturally. There is still way to much socialism in the world, and the direction of movement is not towards capitalism but towards more socialism. The Left are winning, even if you exclude social and demographic policies. 
It is proving difficult for me to work out what assets are actually safe. When China stalls, AUD will dive so cash is not safe. Stocks will dive, commodities (inc gold) will dive. Foreign currencies are not acceptable because they have negative rates of return. What to do, what to do...


Glen48 said:


> Wait until May 16 when USA reaches it debt ceiling and see what they do and if QE2 runs aground on June 30 the we could be going to hell in a hand basket.
> 
> A dirty bomb is the main worry and when it will go off, I assume in some capital city New York, London  Paris.



1) They will simply raise the debt ceiling. Yes that means the 'ceiling' is meaningless, but that's what they will do. Besides, no politician ever stuck to any rules, they always weasel around them (the US constitution being a good example). Also, QE2 will end in June, yes. There will then probably be a new round of QE after a short break. Keep in mind that monetary and fiscal stimuli are always 'hair of the dog', if the economy is broken after they stop, its already broken. The government does not produce anything, they can only expropriate and control things that are already made. 

2) A dirty bomb isn't that scary. Throwing bits of radioactive material into the air with a chemical explosive really isn't that dangerous as far as the radiation levels are concerned. The fallout is very minor and decontamination is straightforward.


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## Glen48 (8 May 2011)

Maybe I should make that dirty bomber some one who  has a piece of plutonium / radio active material, when cars coming out of Japan are registering on the Geiger counters it shows there is not much to nuke a few cities even a small amount would create havoc.

Beans and bullets look like a good investment.

Main concern when it starts how long will if go on for  1930's took 27 yrs to get back to where the market was originally.
 The other thing all modern technology using circuit board , parts or systems relying on tech's to repair will crash because the tech's will be looking for work else were or at home growing food and defending there patch.

Maybe write your self a poison pen letter and eat it.


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## Glen48 (8 May 2011)

Buy shares in Apple when they release the Iraq you will have some where to put all your obsolete equipment.


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## Wysiwyg (8 May 2011)

Glen48 said:


> Buy shares in Apple when they release the Iraq you will have some where to put all your obsolete equipment.



 Medical authorities warn that smoking is a health hazard.


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## Glen48 (14 May 2011)

www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24730

This press conference organized by Globla Research was held in the context of Helen Caldicott's public lecture to Montreal on March 18, 2011. 

First I want to present this report, produced by the New York Academy of Sciences, a report on Chernobyl.  It can be downloaded.(2)  They translated 5,000 articles from Russian for the first time into English.  It seems that nearly a million people have already died as a result of Chernobyl, despite what the WH0(3) says and the IAEA.(4)  This is one of the most monstrous cover-ups in the history of medicine.  Because everybody should know about this. 

Then we extrapolate through to Japan.  Japan is by orders of magnitude many times worse than Chernobyl.  Never in my life did I think that six nuclear reactors would be at risk.(5)  I knew that three GE engineers who helped design these Mark I GE reactors, resigned because they knew they were dangerous.(6)

So Japan built them on an earthquake fault.  The reactors partially withstood the earthquake, but the external electricity supply was cut off, and the electricity supplies the cooling water, a million gallons a minute, to each of those six reactors.  Without the cooling water, the water [level] falls, and the rods are so hot they melt, like at Three Mile Island, and at Chernobyl. 

So the emergency diesel generators, which are as large as a house, got destroyed by the tsunami, so there is no way to keep the water circulating in the reactors.(7)  Also, on the roofs of the reactors, not within the containment vessel, are cooling pools.  Every year they remove about thirty tons of the most radioactive rods that you can possibly imagine.(8)  Each one is twelve feet long and half an inch thick.  It gives out so much radiation, that if you stand next to it for a couple of minutes, you'll die.  Not drop dead.  Remember Litvinenko, the Russian, who got poisoned by polonium?(9)  You'll die like that, with your hair falling out, and bleeding with massive infection, like AIDS patients die. 

And [the spent fuel rods] are thermally hot, so they have to be put in a big pool, and continually cooled.  The pool has really no roof.

There have been three hydrogen explosions, blowing off the roof of the building, not the containment vessel of the core, but the roof.  And exposing the cooling pool.(10)  Two of the cooling pools are dry.  They have no water in them.  Meaning that the nuclear fuel rods are covered with a material called zirconium.  When zirconium is exposed to air, it burns, it ignites.  Two of the cooling pools at this moment are burning.  In the cooling pools are many times, like 10 to 20 times more radiation than in each reactor core.  In each reactor core is as much long-lived radiation as would be produced by a thousand Hiroshima-sized bombs.  We are dealing with diabolical energy. 

E=MC2 is the energy that blows up nuclear bombs.  Einstein said nuclear power is a hell of a way to boil water.(11)  Because that is all nuclear power is used for, to boil water through the massive heat, turn it into steam, and turn a turbine which generates electricity.  

Now when you fission uranium, 200 new elements are formed, all of which are much more poisonous to the body than the original uranium.(12)  Although uranium is pretty poisonous.  America used it in Fallujah, and in Baghdad.  And in Fallujah, 80 per cent of the babies being born are grossly deformed.(13)  They're being born without brains, single eyes, no arms...  The doctors have told the women to stop having babies.  The incidence of childhood cancer has gone up about twelve times.  This is genocide -- it's a nuclear war being conducted in Iraq.  The uranium that they're using lasts more than 4.5 billion years.  So we're contaminating the cradle of civilization.  "The coalition of the willing!"

In the nuclear power plants, however, there is a huge amount of radiation: two hundred elements.  Some last seconds, some last millions of years.  Radioactive iodine lasts six weeks, causes thyroid cancer.  That's why people are saying, "Better take potassium iodide," because that blocks the thyroid uptake of radioactive iodine, which later can cause thyroid cancer.  

In Chernobyl, over 20,000 people have developed thyroid cancer.(14)  They have their thyroids out, and they will die unless they take thyroid replacement every day, like a diabetic has to take insulin.  
      Strontium-90 will get out, it lasts for 600 years.  It goes to the bone, where it causes bone cancer or leukemia.  Cesium lasts for 600 years -- it's all over Europe.  40 per cent of Europe is still radioactive.  Turkish food is extremely radioactive.  Do not buy Turkish dried apricots, or Turkish hazelnuts.  The Turks were so cross with the Russians, they sent all their radioactive tea over to Russia after Chernobyl.(15)

Forty per cent of Europe is still radioactive.  Farms in Britain, their lambs are so full of cesium they can't sell them.  Don’t eat European food.  

But that's nothing compared to what's happening now.  One of the most deadly [nuclear byproducts] is plutonium, named after Pluto, god of the underworld.  One millionth of a gram, if you inhale it, would give you cancer.  Hypothetically, one pound of plutonium if evenly distributed could give everyone on earth cancer.  Each reactor has 250 kilograms of plutonium in it.  You only need 2.5 kilograms to make an atomic bomb, because plutonium is what they make bombs with.

So any country that has a reactor, works with your uranium.  You [Canada] are the biggest exporter of uranium in the world.(16)  Canada sells two things: it sells wheat for life, and uranium for death.  Plutonium is going to get out and spread all over the northern hemisphere.  It's already heading towards North America now.

Radioactive iodine, plus strontium, plus cesium, plus tritium, and I could go on and on and on.  When it rains, downs come fallout, and it concentrates in food.  If it gets into the sea, the algae concentrate it, hundreds of times.  And the crustaceans concentrate it, hundreds of times.  And then the little fish, then the big fish, then us.(17)

Because we stand on the apex of the food chain.  You can't taste these radioactive food elements, you can't see them, you can't smell them.  They're silent.  When you get them inside your body, you don't suddenly drop dead of cancer, it takes five to sixty years to get your cancer, and when you feel a lump in your breast, it doesn't say, "I was made by some strontium-90 in a piece of fish you ate twenty years ago."  

All radiation is damaging.  It's cumulative -- each dose you get adds to your risk of getting cancer.  The americium is more dangerous than plutonium -- I could go on and on.  Depends if it rains if you're going to get it or not.  If it rains and the radiation comes down, don't grow food, and don't eat the food, and I mean don't eat it for 600 years. 

Radioactive waste from nuclear power is going to be buried, I hear, next to Lake Ontario.  It's going to leak, last for millions of years, it's going to get into the water, and into the food chains.  Radioactive waste will induce epidemics of cancer, leukemia, and genetic disease for the rest of time.  This is the greatest public health hazard the world has ever witnessed, apart from the threat every day of nuclear war.  

Einstein said "the splitting of the atom changed everything, save man's mode of thinking" -- very profound -- "and thus we drift toward unparalleled catastrophe."  We are arrogant, we have a lot of hubris, and I think the reptilian mid-brain of some men's brains is pathological.(18)  

We are in a situation where we have harnessed the energy of the sun.  It is totally out of control.  And there's simply nothing we can do about it.


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## spooly74 (15 May 2011)

Glen48 said:


> www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24730
> 
> This press conference organized by Globla Research was held in the context of Helen Caldicott's public lecture to Montreal on March 18, 2011.
> 
> ...




What a load of absolute bollox


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2011)

Glen48 said:


> www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24730
> 
> This press conference organized by Globla Research was held in the context of Helen Caldicott's public lecture to Montreal on March 18, 2011.
> 
> ...




Helen needs to read Freud rather than Einstein.



spooly74 said:


> What a load of absolute bollox




I agree totally with your sentiments spooly.

gg


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## jbocker (16 May 2011)

Mofra said:


> ...
> (In before someone raises the scary notion of peak phosphorus )




No need to worry about peak phosphorus it looks like we are well short of peak BS?


----------



## burglar (16 May 2011)

jbocker said:


> No need to worry about peak phosphorus it looks like we are well short of peak BS?




Isn't BS a rich source of Phosphorus?


----------



## burglar (16 May 2011)

burglar said:


> Isn't BS a rich source of Phosphorus?




Oops sorry ... a bit slow on the uptake!


----------



## jaystar86 (16 May 2011)

Whilst I don't subscribe to fear mongering or conspiracy theories... here are my thoughts.

Even if the world is on the 'brink'.  I have to ask the 'brink' of what.  Destruction? Obliteration? Poverty? or perhaps, change? redesign? Evolution? (god forbid the argument that might ensure from using that word)

All civilisations will most likely (can't say for sure) end and be superceded by a newer, stronger more developed civilisation (not always ethicaly, morally or spiritually). 

In my opinion (even I take my opinion with a grain of salt), this worlds economy is just changing it reliance and with this change will come geopolitical and societal change across the glove.  It's not something to run around with our heads cut off (mainly because we won't be the civilisation being destroyed, for lack of a better word), it is just something to be aware of so that we can adapt, change and move forward into a new world.

My 

Jayvan


----------



## Uncle Festivus (16 May 2011)

Perhaps we are about to see what the 'mean reversion' of humanity looks like?





Time for Carousel?

[video]http://youtu.be/xSnLU9nyFSA[/video]


----------



## Glen48 (16 May 2011)

Maybe listen to this and it may help to form an opinion.

http://clicks.dailywealth.com//t/AQ/AAVTzA/AAVfNw/AAPtig/AQ/AtrGvg/quSJ


----------



## sammy84 (16 May 2011)

Glen48 said:


> Maybe listen to this and it may help to form an opinion.
> 
> http://clicks.dailywealth.com//t/AQ/AAVTzA/AAVfNw/AAPtig/AQ/AtrGvg/quSJ




Since I have joined this forum you have always been a perma bear. I remember you once bought shares in frustration a few years ago but was quick to sell on noise for a loss. You're judgement seems extremely clouded. Have you actually profited at all since the GFC or have you been stocking up on backed beans and bomb shelters?


----------



## Glen48 (16 May 2011)

Sammy 84
 Sold one house for $296 an 8 yr later it was worth $900 result of a divorce
 Paid 96K for one house sold it 10 yr later for $95K due to CSA.
Purchased my house for 80 sold it for 250 and few yrs later brought Gold At 500 600 an oz Silver for about 8 10 still have.. I am not saying this will happen its up to the individual to decide, although I firmly believe it will , always ask yourself  one question _What if?????_ 
Like the Jews in Germany they knew it was OK to stay.

I predict OZ house prices will follow USA, PM's will go up after June, QE 2 will be re-name some thing else and started up again and USA will continue to print money until the plug is pulled.
 Inflation is/ will take of.
Me I an just getting prepared because I asked what IF.
You only have to look at the quality and values of the people running the economy to see we are in trouble, every 75 yrs or so there has been a depression type event.
Tell me were I am wrong in all this, where is the good news what good news has there been since you have known me.
 The IMF. Fed Res. ECB are only there to stop their banks tanking nothing else even now little Timmy is telling USA to lift the ceiling days before it hit the ceiling debt level..

If I am wrong in a few yrs time I will be apologizing here.


 Watch the _Grapes of Wrath _or read the book to see what happens in a depression .
 Thanks for your input it is one of the things about Humans we can debate and decide like religion all think they are correct..


----------



## explod (16 May 2011)

Glen48 said:


> Sammy 84
> Sold one house for $296 an 8 yr later it was worth $900 result of a divorce
> Paid 96K for one house sold it 10 yr later for $95K due to CSA.
> Purchased my house for 80 sold it for 250 and few yrs later brought Gold At 500 600 an oz Silver for about 8 10 still have.. I am not saying this will happen its up to the individual to decide, although I firmly believe it will , always ask yourself  one question _What if?????_
> ...




Agree totally and have done virtually the same.  Funny I read the Grapes of Wrath (back in 1982) too.

And for those who do not ponder and investigate the "what if" there could be some nasty shocks and soon IMHO.   Two great books I read in the last 10 years, "Financial Armageddon" and "Conquor the Crash". the latter called things a bit early but have been spot on in predicting the way it is all now going.   The great thing about those reads is that they *help you understand *what is going on, why and *how to defend yourself *financially.  Also owe a huge debt to "The Privateer Newsletter", Jack Buckler is one of the best informed economists I have known.

I post these things up to help others and in recent times many ASF'ers have pm'd appreciation.   It feels good to give.    

And I would not joke about the canned food and vegie patch either.  Rampant inflation is showing signs of hitting all the stores near you *now*.


----------



## Glen48 (16 May 2011)

Thanks explod.
One thing about the movie was the way people turned on each other when they thought they would loose some thing and hunted others away.

 A forum is suppose to be a platform to float ideas and you make up your own mind.

 There have ben good time to trade mainly on bad news and there be a lot of bad news to come and a lot of money to be made and starting with in weeks.


----------



## Aussiejeff (18 May 2011)

Maybe the world is closer to the brink (economic collapse) than we think....especially if the drought situation in China was to continue for another year or more..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ower-shortages/2011/05/16/AFZPLL5G_story.html


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## Glen48 (18 May 2011)

Not only is China low on H2O but they have power cuts as well, diesel is not allowed to be exported and the Big Four banks who can never fails with the best bank system and Wayne Swan gentle hand on the rudder are in trouble with the first of many down grades by the ratting agency.
 Just one ,ore piece of evidence the world is on the brink.


----------



## bandicoot76 (18 May 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Do not despair.
> 
> We started off with a big bang from a black hole.
> 
> gg




true!.... then they said we would all die from AIDS, which all started off from a big bang IN a black hole!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (20 May 2011)

The lovely Leanne.........explains it all.......

[video]http://youtu.be/FXhPqywdEg4[/video]


----------



## damien275x (22 May 2011)

Too many  idiots screaming the sky is falling lately. I'd say this is the trend that is likely to continue. But the world will keep spinning. They have been predicting the end of the world since the beginning of time. So what if a currency collapses? So what if a war breaks out. Chances are you will live through it all with a front row seat. The amount of fools on Youtube working themselves into a frantic panic is ridiclious. They might as well just stick a bullet in their head now.


----------



## noco (22 May 2011)

damien275x said:


> Too many  idiots screaming the sky is falling lately. I'd say this is the trend that is likely to continue. But the world will keep spinning. They have been predicting the end of the world since the beginning of time. So what if a currency collapses? So what if a war breaks out. Chances are you will live through it all with a front row seat. The amount of fools on Youtube working themselves into a frantic panic is ridiclious. They might as well just stick a bullet in their head now.




Yeah, some BODGIE said it would happen today; like big Earth Quakes all over da
 world.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (23 May 2011)

damien275x said:


> So what if a currency collapses?



In the case of the $USD, YOU pay more for everything, until you can't pay for anything?



damien275x said:


> So what if a war breaks out.




The price of oil goes up, meaning YOU pay more for everything, until you can't pay for anything?

I don't think you can link crack pots who predict the end of the world with those who use data & common sense to work out that the world is stuffed financially. Ignore (from your front row seat?) at your peril?

The irony is that intrinsically there is no real global recovery as it's all premised on activity funded by hugely increased government & central bank debt, that will never be payed back ie massive defaults globally. 

We are about to enter GFC part 2 by the looks of things in the Euro zone............


----------



## Sean K (21 June 2011)

Events keep getting closer.

If the Saudi people rise up (probably unlikely, as they have been sufficiently bribed), or the Russians accept intervention in Syria (unlikely, unless Iran do not support them and Russia grows a brain), or Nth Korea sinks another Sth Korean war ship (hmm, likely) or the US gets out of debt (unlikely), or the rest of the despot countries in the Middle East do not continue to rise and seek a voice (unlikely) then ....

I'm not sure what that adds up to really.


----------



## Sean K (6 August 2011)

kennas said:


> Events keep getting closer



And closer.

We are really heading into some previously charted territory here.

The world is doomed.

Humans have almost failed. 

Not many chances left.


----------



## wayneL (7 August 2011)

kennas said:


> And closer.
> 
> We are really heading into some previously charted territory here.
> 
> ...






Do you know something we don't?


----------



## Sean K (9 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Do you know something we don't?



Maybe that one was a bit over the top... 

I didn't think that 'London Burns' would be added to the headlines though. 

Syria just about to collapse into civil war.


----------



## basilio (9 August 2011)

Really wonder how the current financial systems will handle the stresses on the collapsing stock markets and loan pressures.  I understand that margin calls are sharply rising.  

It will also be interesting to see how the nominal asset values of institutions are going to compare to liabilities.  Might not be a good look.


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 August 2011)

basilio said:


> Really wonder how the current financial systems will handle the stresses on the collapsing stock markets and loan pressures.  I understand that margin calls are sharply rising.
> 
> *It will also be interesting to see how the nominal asset values of institutions are going to compare to liabilities.  Might not be a good look.*




Well, instos certainly didn't like "the look" last time the accounting firms tried to introduce stringent "mark to market" valuations, before being backed right off. Some say "what they saw" was so horrific that it was a major factor in spooking shaky companies & bringing on GFC1.

Best to keep it all swept under the flea-bitten bear rug.

LOL


----------



## Glen48 (9 August 2011)

With about 17% of USA voters approving of the QE 1 & 2  the rest are smart enough to realise it has a been  a failure  and Big Ben ready to pump more gasoline on to the fire will the voters react and say we have had enough stop the madness.


----------



## basilio (9 August 2011)

Laughing as you sink.. A lighter look at lengthening losses.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3UAyXao


----------



## James58209 (10 August 2011)

You can count on Max to provide some extreme speculation about how far the Pentagon will go to hold onto their military budget after threatened cuts.


----------



## basilio (11 August 2011)

That was a very interesting Kaiser report. Worth a look.

Thanks


----------



## James58209 (11 August 2011)

basilio said:


> That was a very interesting Kaiser report. Worth a look.
> 
> Thanks




Max is great fun, and seems appropriate for a "World is on the brink!" thread. 

I watch the Keiser Report, mainly for its entertainment value, but he's a smart guy who knows a lot about financial markets, and a lot of what he says makes sense to me:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/max-keiser/the-market-is-a-hologram_b_660277.html


----------



## xyzedarteerf (11 August 2011)

US Debt Crisis Explained.


----------



## Glen48 (1 September 2011)

The word is QE3 will start on 21 September B S Ben will announce 1.4 trillion to bail out 10 Million homes in USA and all will be refinanced at 4%. The Feds will pick  up the tab so that should make the market rocket the DOW will be 20K in no time.


----------



## nulla nulla (1 September 2011)

kennas said:


> And closer.
> 
> We are really heading into some previously charted territory here.
> 
> ...




All will be resolved. Just go and see the movie "Rise of the Planet of the Apes".


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2011)

More signs of the coming disaster with increased unrest around the world, particularly the situations in Libya and Syria. Syria is especially problematic because they actually have some decent military assets perhaps well paid enough to remain loyal to Assad, and have some backing from Iran. 

Next on the block may actually be Iran and if general unrest starts there then Western Asia might be in real trouble. 

On top of that Turkey (one of the only sane Muslim countries in the world - because they are constitutionally secular thanks to Ataturk) has cut off diplomatic dealings with Israel because they won't apologise for killing the activists trying to illegally enter their sovereign country. 

Now, today I see protests in Italy about austerity measures to cut their debt. Greece almost collapsed into anarchy for the same reason. 

And, most worrying to me, is that today New South Welshmen were marching because they were getting hard done by for some reason. At the same time, the government is getting into more and more debt.

Have people no idea about what is going on in the world?

Humans are just so selfish an animal, and hardly moral. 

The only true motivation proves to be survival.


----------



## sptrawler (8 September 2011)

Interesting what John Howard said on Lateline last night.
He was very concerned about the unrest in and around Pakistan, as they have nuclear weapons. Like he said, it would be a grave situation for Australia if they fell into terrorist control


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2011)

sptrawler said:


> Interesting what John Howard said on Lateline last night.
> He was very concerned about the unrest in and around Pakistan, as they have nuclear weapons. Like he said, it would be a grave situation for Australia if they fell into terrorist control



Yep, and Libya's chemical and anti-aircraft weapons have just fallen into the hands of who? 

Arab Muslims without a job.


----------



## LostMyShirt (8 September 2011)

May I ask; what _is_ going to happen to the world exactly?


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> May I ask; what _is_ going to happen to the world exactly?



Double dip, probably depression, major conflict.


----------



## LostMyShirt (8 September 2011)

kennas said:


> Double dip, probably depression, major conflict.




Oh.

You made the original post sound as if there was an impending doom and disaster about to strike in the hearts of men globally! Ivasion from above perhaps?

They are just market conditions that require different strategies - dip away, let the shorters go nuts and the longs pick up the pieces.


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Oh.
> 
> You made the original post sound as if there was an impending doom and disaster about to strike in the hearts of men globally! Ivasion from above perhaps?
> 
> They are just market conditions that require different strategies - dip away, let the shorters go nuts and the longs pick up the pieces.



The financial calamity created by greed, despotism, nepotism, corruption, unemployment, disenfranchisement, information available to the oppressed, loss of leadership legitimacy due to the previous, civil unrest, rebellion, civil war, external interference, ethnic-historical-cultural-political-religious-economic allegiances, survival imperative. 

Aliens will actually unite the world.


----------



## Julia (8 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Oh.
> 
> You made the original post sound as if there was an impending doom and disaster about to strike in the hearts of men globally! Ivasion from above perhaps?
> 
> They are just market conditions that require different strategies - dip away, let the shorters go nuts and the longs pick up the pieces.



You might perhaps look back on this post in about a decade when you might realise Kennas is right.
The world is indeed in a perilous state and not just as it relates to financial markets.

The most concerning aspect is that when we are so in need of proper leadership it seems not to exist in any country, let alone the ineffectual U.N.


----------



## tech/a (8 September 2011)

*The World is on the brink!*

*CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS*

Thats all.
It really is.


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> *The World is on the brink!*
> 
> *CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS*
> 
> ...





Part of the greed bit, I think.


----------



## sptrawler (8 September 2011)

I don't think there's a problem, we will be bred out. Our birthrates are falling the rest are increasing.
We will all be third world countries, it's only a matter of time.


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2011)

sptrawler said:


> I don't think there's a problem, we will be bred out. Our birthrates are falling the rest are increasing.
> We will all be third world countries, it's only a matter of time.



Increased population is one of the results of our nature and a compounding effect on our disunity. Yes. 

However; 1000 poor people = 1 rich person. (for arguments sake)

The first people to be abolished will be the uneducated and poor. They are just making up the numbers really, and taking a disproportionate amount of wealth from what we deem to be 'successful' society. Make sense of $500m ish pa to PNG for negative effect. What a waste. 

We need to adapt to our condition or we really will die because the water level is rising by 0.0000001 mm per year.


----------



## sptrawler (8 September 2011)

Thank god for vocational swimming classes. The good thing about the slow raising of sea levels, is that it will give us time to evolve and return from whence we came.


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2011)

sptrawler said:


> Thank god for vocational swimming classes. The good thing about the slow raising of sea levels, is that it will give us time to evolve and return from whence we came.





Yep, the answer now is how to survive. 

If global warming can't be stopped, why not just start building cities on higher ground to survive this period of increased global temperature. 

Australia is currently the driest continent on the planet. 

Perhaps in 100,000 years we will be the greenest.

I don't care if Humans are ruling at that point. It will just be according to the natural adjustment of our our Universe in order to survive. 

Ride the wave. Adapt. Overcome.


----------



## Happy (9 September 2011)

kennas said:


> Yep, the answer now is how to survive.
> 
> ...
> 
> Ride the wave. Adapt. Overcome.





Dispersed particles to reflect some of the sunrays were not accepted, as we don’t know if they won’t make catastrophic change. 
On the other hand there is catastrophic change coming because of CO2.

Just cannot accept that TAX is the best method to prevent it.

(Yes I am for conservation of natural resources and I am also not convinced that little bit of extra CO2 will kill us, and definitely against TAX to be given away as subsidy to those WORSE OFF)


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 September 2011)

Happy said:


> Dispersed particles to reflect some of the sunrays were not accepted, as we don’t know if they won’t make catastrophic change.
> On the other hand there is catastrophic change coming because of CO2.
> 
> Just cannot accept that TAX is the best method to prevent it.
> ...




Nooooooo!

I think political rhetoric is our best medicine.

Look at what Mr Obamasan just did to Mr Market with his blast of hot air....

Kind, honest, generous pollies will save us all from ourselves.


----------



## LostMyShirt (9 September 2011)

Julia/Kennas;

Sorry - but there is no impending doom on the way, unless you know of an asteroid on it's way (besides Apophus)...

Increased population - National unrest etc. These things have existed all through time. Increased population is due to the ability to sustain it. The Earth is NOT running out of room and Nature is not going to be eaten up from a mere 6b.

If I do read the news from a decade ago, untill now, it will begin with 911, and end here. There is nohting abnormal happening to this world - and I am going to be bold and say; Kennas, I do believe you are indirectly reffering to what some con-theorists call, "NWO" (New World Order). The deliberate creation of unrest in order to whisk the world into some totalitarian single Governmental state, but not before the break-out of harsh war.

Sorry, Pish-Posh... We were never settled to begin with to take notice of a sudden shake-up of our peace.

There _will_ be change - big ones. No doom. The world, is on the brink of nothing. The world has been said to be on the brink on so many different occasions. There is no brink - only change.


----------



## drsmith (9 September 2011)

kennas said:


> Perhaps in 100,000 years we will be the greenest.
> 
> I don't care if Humans are ruling at that point.



In 100,000 years, we might be like this fellow,


----------



## disarray (9 September 2011)

hell yeah



p.s. kennas i got this for you ...


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 September 2011)

disarray said:


> p.s. kennas i got this for you ...




[size=+1]AAARGHHHH!!![/size]

[size=+2]YOUR SIGN DIDN'T WORK!!!![/size]

[size=+3]*RUN AWAAAAAYYYYY!!!!!*[/size]


----------



## Sean K (11 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Julia/Kennas;
> 
> Sorry - but there is no impending doom on the way, unless you know of an asteroid on it's way (besides Apophus)...
> 
> ...



LMS, Not saying that the Earth will explode, more like the Earth will win over Humans. 

At the moment, 'the brink' is more to do the the culmination of geopolitics, world economics, globalisation, natural disasters, and overpopulation. Overpopulation being the key imo.


----------



## sptrawler (11 September 2011)

kennas said:


> LMS, Not saying that the Earth will explode, more like the Earth will win over Humans.
> 
> At the moment, 'the brink' is more to do the the culmination of geopolitics, world economics, globalisation, natural disasters, and overpopulation. Overpopulation being the key imo.




No apparently they think our population will peak in 50 years time, food is the key, we will not be able to grow enough to feed everyone so it will all implode.
Obviously they haven't seen McDonalds business plan.


----------



## LostMyShirt (12 September 2011)

sptrawler said:


> No apparently they think our population will peak in 50 years time, food is the key, we will not be able to grow enough to feed everyone so it will all implode.
> Obviously they haven't seen McDonalds business plan.




Indeed.


----------



## wayneL (12 September 2011)

Maybe this is more likely? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> Maybe this is more likely? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy






> From that Wiki article - "Two ordinary people... awaken 500 years in the future...They discover that the world has degenerated into a *dystopia where advertising, commercialism, and cultural anti-intellectualism run rampant and dysgenic pressure has resulted in a uniformly stupid human society devoid of intellectual curiosity, social responsibility and coherent notions of justice and human rights. Rather, this future society emphasizes anti-intellectualism, popularity, sexual attraction, and hedonism.*




LOL. I could have sworn that description pretty much fits TODAY'S world, let alone 500 years from now! LMFAO


----------



## Happy (12 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> LOL. I could have sworn that description pretty much fits TODAY'S world, let alone 500 years from now! LMFAO




Not happy, but must agree.

Somehow our generations managed to compress time.


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 September 2011)

> *World Must ’Get House in Order,’ [size=+3]Not Rely on China[/size]: Wen*
> 
> Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, facing calls to widen support for indebted European countries, signaled that developed nations should cut deficits and create jobs rather than relying on China to bail out the world economy.
> 
> “Countries must first put their own houses in order,” Wen said today at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China. “Developed countries must take responsible fiscal and monetary policies. What is most important now is to prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.”



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...must-cut-debt-and-deficits-increase-jobs.html

Oopsies! 

Them's fightin' words, mister! Doesn't this guy realise the WHOLE WORLD is relying on China to bail it out?

What hope now?

"Game overr, man.... game _overrrr...._ "


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 September 2011)

> *More Americans are living in poverty than at any time in the past 50 years, according to the latest US Census Bureau report.*
> 
> The figures paint a grim picture, with 46.2 million Americans, or just over 15 per cent of the total population, now living below the poverty line.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-14/more-americans-living-in-poverty/2898076

Appalling. Obviously, we too should aspire to be as wealthy as our American cousins. 

Apply GFC 2+3 and imagine the result...


----------



## Sean K (14 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> Maybe this is more likely? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy



Yep. Human society has generally peaked by proportion of intelligence to stupidity. It's a downhill ride from here into oblivion.


----------



## disarray (14 September 2011)

i don't know why you are so worried about the world being on the brink, we've got a bigger problem now 



> A CSIRO study has shown why the lights are going out in the Universe. The Universe forms fewer stars than it used to, and a CSIRO study has now shown why: the galaxies are running out of gas.


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 September 2011)

disarray said:


> i don't know why you are so worried about the world being on the brink, we've got a bigger problem now




More gas needed?

Hurry! Eat those beanz....beanz meanz.....


----------



## Sean K (14 September 2011)

disarray said:


> i don't know why you are so worried about the world being on the brink, we've got a bigger problem now



Since we're going to collide into the Sun one day, why do we bother at all!!


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 September 2011)

kennas said:


> Yep. Human society has generally peaked by proportion of intelligence to stupidity. It's a downhill ride from here into oblivion.



 It was the beginning of the end from the first thought. The planet and life on it would have been better off if we didn't start thinking.


----------



## disarray (14 September 2011)

kennas said:


> Since we're going to collide into the Sun one day, why do we bother at all!!




breasts!*

*individual results may vary


----------



## Sean K (14 September 2011)

disarray said:


> breasts!*



Why does anyone think breasts are better large?

There's no more milk in there.


----------



## disarray (14 September 2011)

you're far too practical. no wonder you're such a pessimist :


----------



## Knobby22 (15 September 2011)

DEVO had it right!

One of new wave's most innovative and (for a time) successful bands, Devo was also perhaps one of its most misunderstood. Formed in Akron, OH, in 1972 by Kent State art students Jerry Casale and Mark Mothersbaugh, Devo took its name from their concept of "de-evolution" -- the idea that instead of evolving, mankind has actually regressed, as evidenced by the dysfunction and herd mentality of American society. Their music echoed this view of society as rigid, repressive, and mechanical, with appropriate touches -- jerky, robotic rhythms;

The trio adapted the theory to fit their view of American society as a rigid, dichotomized instrument of repression which ensured that its members behaved like clones, marching through life with mechanical, assembly-line precision and no tolerance for ambiguity. The whole concept was treated as an elaborate joke until Casale witnessed the infamous National Guard killings of student protesters at the university; suddenly there seemed to be a legitimate point to be made.

http://www.allmusic.com/artist/devo-p4080/biography


----------



## AubreyThompson (26 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> And we're just warming up for 2012??
> 
> Beggorah!




We only have 15 months to December 2012. What more will happen?


----------



## drsmith (26 September 2011)

Some interesting thoughts in this article,

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2941610.html

On China,



> China's headline debt to GDP ratio of 17 per cent (around $1 trillion) is misleading. If local governments, its state controlled banks, state owned enterprise, and other government supported debt are included, then debt levels increase to 60 per cent ($3.5 trillion), compared to America's 93 per cent of GDP. Some commentators argue that China's real level of debt is far higher in reality, well above 100 per cent.




And more generally,



> The most likely outcome is a protracted period of low, slow growth, analogous to Japan's Ushinawareta Jūnen – the lost decade or two. *The best case is a slow decline in living standards and wealth as the excesses of the past are paid for.* The risk of instability is very high; a more violent correction and a breakdown in markets like 2008, or worse, is possible. Frequent bouts of panic and volatility as the global economy deleverages – reduces debt - are likely. Problems created gradually over more than the last three decades can only be corrected slowly and painfully.




To me, the bit in bold it to me is what the major western governments are aiming for through increased inflation. The problem as highlighted above is whether it can be done orderly and whether the middle classes are expected to take a disproportinate amount of the pain. If so, this will only increase the gap between the rich and the rest with obvious implications for social unrest.


----------



## disarray (26 September 2011)

drsmith said:


> The problem as highlighted above is whether it can be done orderly and whether the middle classes are expected to take a disproportinate amount of the pain.




it's the young who will be expected to carry the burden. how gracefully they do it remains to be seen. this is more than a class conflict, its a generational conflict.


----------



## prawn_86 (26 September 2011)

disarray said:


> it's the young who will be expected to carry the burden. how gracefully they do it remains to be seen. this is more than a class conflict, its a generational conflict.




Totally agree with this. Why should our taxes pay for the baby boomers health/aged/medical care and pay off all the debts they have ran up? Its not as though they have left the World in a stable place for us to take over from, and those in power still cannot admit that they mave made continuous mistakes since their generation came to power.

(Generalising obviously, but thats my thoughts)


----------



## sptrawler (26 September 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> Totally agree with this. Why should our taxes pay for the baby boomers health/aged/medical care and pay off all the debts they have ran up? Its not as though they have left the World in a stable place for us to take over from, and those in power still cannot admit that they mave made continuous mistakes since their generation came to power.
> 
> (Generalising obviously, but thats my thoughts)




On behalf of my generation I would just like to say "sorry". LOL,LOL,LOL. Give me a glass of water I'm choking.
You younger generation need to get over yourselves, get of your ar@%e and stop being a bunch of babies.
Where ever I look there is young people sitting around sipping latte, filling fast food outlets or pubs and clubs. There has never been a more affluent  group of young people, they have been over indulged by their baby boomer parents.
That is the biggest continuous mistake the baby boomers made.

(Generalising obviously, buts that's my thoughts)


----------



## medicowallet (26 September 2011)

sptrawler said:


> You younger generation need to get over yourselves, get of your ar@%e and stop being a bunch of babies.
> Where ever I look there is young people sitting around sipping latte, filling fast food outlets or pubs and clubs. There has never been a more affluent  group of young people, they have been over indulged by their baby boomer parents.
> That is the biggest continuous mistake the baby boomers made.
> 
> (Generalising obviously, buts that's my thoughts)




This is one of the best statements on ASF I have ever read.

We ALL contributed to the good and the bad.

The BB MADE the lifestyle that the younger generation inherited, but the BB also created the problems we have today, and more importantly we will be faced with tomorrow.

I think there is a deleveraging the world has to have.

I think that there needs to be worldwide re-evaluation of retirement ages.

I think that there will be massive pain felt by the younger generations, BUT remember that the BB felt a lot of pain whilst building up the world for the younglings.

The younger generation has less opportunity, but a better starting point, and a bleaker outlook.. I don't know which one I would prefer, but I DO know that hard work will prevail.    I just think that the govt needs to get their head out, and INCREASE the RETIREMENT AGE before it is too late.

ALSO, means tests should include housing as an asset, to limit pensions to people who actually need them.


----------



## Julia (26 September 2011)

medicowallet said:


> ALSO, means tests should include housing as an asset, to limit pensions to people who actually need them.



Strongly agree with this.   We should not be having elderly people (or anyone else for that matter) sitting on million dollar homes and drawing on the public purse.

sptrawler:  thanks for saying what I wanted to but lacked the courage!   I am so utterly sick of Gen Y blaming baby boomers for everything.


----------



## Samson 9 (27 September 2011)

(Strongly agree with this.   We should not be having elderly people (or anyone else for that matter) sitting on million dollar homes and drawing on the public purse.)


And while your at it don't forget a *Inheritance Tax* would be also handy for Father State.


Sam


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 September 2011)

medicowallet said:


> ALSO, means tests should include housing as an asset, to limit pensions to people who actually need them.



But how does one define "need"?

If I work all my life and save for retirement, then why should I pay to provide a pension to someone else who had the same opportunities but who spent everything they earned?

It's like those damn "seniors card" discounts. Why should I pay more in order to provide a discount to others, many of whom are reasonably wealthy, simply based on their age? Would a discount for the genuinely poor or otherwise disadvantaged, of any age, not be a better outcome? 

We seem to have become a society where practically everyone is receiving some form of welfare either directly, or through various bonuses, discounts etc. The majority are being propped up by an increasingly small number of hard workers who receive no handouts or discounts.


----------



## Sean K (28 September 2011)

Libyan missiles and uranium taken by Iran. Anarchy looms. 

Pakistan still housing various militant groups in the NW raiding NATO in Afghanistan. US attacking sovereign Pakistan by the day. And night.

Syrian rebels about to establish a separate state on the border with Turkey led by a former General. Will consolidate to build strength and attack Assad no doubtably with Western backing.

EU is CRAZY to back the PIIGS and should kick them out. Stop putting band aids on people who are so insolent.  

Germany will end up owning Europe at this rate. We know what they are capable of.


----------



## Julia (28 September 2011)

kennas said:


> EU is CRAZY to back the PIIGS and should kick them out. Stop putting band aids on people who are so insolent.
> 
> Germany will end up owning Europe at this rate. We know what they are capable of.



I agree.  I have much sympathy for the German taxpayers.


----------



## disarray (28 September 2011)

> Germany will end up owning Europe at this rate




well after so many shots at it they deserve a payoff for their determination :


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 September 2011)

I wonder what the futures indexes are telling us?

Perhaps, the possibility of a brief rally in the short term followed by a sharp collapse to an even lower low?

How low might it go in the rollercoaster yo-yo...

Looks a tad grim IMO


----------



## IFocus (29 September 2011)

disarray said:


> it's the young who will be expected to carry the burden. how gracefully they do it remains to be seen. this is more than a class conflict, its a generational conflict.






prawn_86 said:


> Totally agree with this. Why should our taxes pay for the baby boomers health/aged/medical care and pay off all the debts they have ran up? Its not as though they have left the World in a stable place for us to take over from, and those in power still cannot admit that they mave made continuous mistakes since their generation came to power.
> 
> (Generalising obviously, but thats my thoughts)




Totally agree but then I think of this

"The young do not know enough to 
be prudent, and therefore they attempt 
the impossible -- and achieve it, 
generation after generation." 
- Pearl S. Buck


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2011)

The word 'brink' is creeping into the vernacular in all sorts of places. 

Europe is obviously on a path to self distraction. They can only hold it together for a short time longer. Eastern Europe is being dragged in. It's just looking completely brinkish really.

The Muslim world from Morocco to Pakistan is just plain defunct. Imagine when the oil starts running out. Millions of people with no functional economy and eventual MASS unemployment. That's a few years away though.... maybe  

Once the spot light is put back onto the US we will see them having to raise the debt level once again. And probably again.  

The solutions across the board are not solutions at all, but just plain dumb Band-Aids.


Replacing autonomous dictators with military rulers is not a fix.
Printing money to buy private debt is not a fix.
Imposing taxes to halt unstoppable cyclical climate change is not a fix.
Implementing consumer democratic politics in an ancient tribal structure is not a fix.

Blah. blah. blah, ....

Now, watch out for Japan being the next disaster to not be able to service debt.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 November 2011)

kennas said:


> Replacing autonomous dictators with military rulers is not a fix.
> Printing money to buy private debt is not a fix.
> Imposing taxes to halt unstoppable cyclical climate change is not a fix.
> Implementing consumer democratic politics in an ancient tribal structure is not a fix.



Like any chronic disease, the only real solution is to not do the things which cause it in the first place.

In my opinion, 5 things come immediately to mind (no doubt there are others):

1. The need for an honest money system. That is, a gold standard or something similar.

2. Globalisation is inherently flawed as a race to the bottom in everything from incomes to environmental standards. It will not work this time just as it did not work last time it was tried. 

3. Reliance on a small number of countries for supplies of key natural resources is a problem, with oil and gas heading the list. Since these resources will also run out sooner or later in additon to the economic and geopolitical risks they present, minimising their use through the use of currently available alternatives and development of new technology is a priority.

4. Recognition that the planet is a finite resource and that the notion of constant GDP growth is inherently flawed and must at some point cease. This relates directly to point 1 above - we need a system that does not require constant growth in order to avoid outright collapse.

5. Smashing windows (or starting wars) in order to fix them adds to GDP but does not create real wealth. The economic system needs transformation to reflect this with a consequent shift away from producing products designed to break (relates to all points above in some way as well as being an issue in itself).

Address that lot (and no doubt a few others) and then we'll stop causing the disease in the first place. Prevention is always better than trying to effect a cure.


----------



## drsmith (25 November 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> 4. Recognition that the planet is a finite resource and that the notion of constant GDP growth is inherently flawed and must at some point cease. This relates directly to point 1 above - we need a system that does not require constant growth in order to avoid outright collapse.



In terms of fossil fuel reliance from one planet as a closed system, that's true, but the universe is a big place. 

Growth drives innovation and technological advancement, but the other settings also have to be right as you have noted above.


----------



## skc (25 November 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> 4. Recognition that the planet is a finite resource and that the notion of constant GDP growth is inherently flawed and must at some point cease. This relates directly to point 1 above - we need a system that does not require constant growth in order to avoid outright collapse.




The ruling elites of this planet seem unable to understand or unwilling to care about the difference between growth and better standard of living...


----------



## kavla1970 (25 November 2011)

kennas said:


> The word 'brink' is creeping into the vernacular in all sorts of places.
> 
> Europe is obviously on a path to self distraction. They can only hold it together for a short time longer. Eastern Europe is being dragged in. It's just looking completely brinkish really.
> 
> ...




Yeap agree.


----------



## Sean K (25 November 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> 4. Recognition that the planet is a finite resource and that the notion of constant GDP growth is inherently flawed and must at some point cease. This relates directly to point 1 above - we need a system that does not require constant growth in order to avoid outright collapse.



I doubt we will recognise the planet as finite until it is way too late. We won't be able to change anything by then anyway. 

We think we're in charge at the moment, but we aren't really. 

There has been, and probably still is, an assumption that we can grow forever:  Probably linked to the bamboozling ridiculous belief in life after death. 

Humans think they are the smartest creature in the Universe yet believe they can keep digging forever and the dirt will just keep on giving... 

I think humans may have peaked about 2500 years ago and we've been in a steady decline since then.

We are just another transitional species controlling this rock in our own minds for this slight moment. 

I think the answer may be to just accept that we are not in control.   

The multiverses are.


----------



## tech/a (25 November 2011)

kennas said:


> I doubt we will recognise the planet as finite until it is way too late. We won't be able to change anything by then anyway.
> 
> We think we're in charge at the moment, but we aren't really.
> 
> ...




Hell Kennas we agree.


----------



## Sean K (25 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Hell Kennas we agree.



And, now I believe in God. We agree.


----------



## Struzball (25 November 2011)

skc said:


> The ruling elites of this planet seem unable to understand or unwilling to care about the difference between growth and better standard of living...




I'm really trying to live my life in a more sustainable simple way, but this damn society just makes it too damn easy to live an unsustainable stressful life.  It doesn't make sense.


----------



## tech/a (25 November 2011)

kennas said:


> And, now I believe in God. We agree.




Don't know about a God
Consciousness after death is the question.


----------



## drsmith (25 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Consciousness after death is the question.



A question we all get an answer to. 

I'll worry about it when I get there, or perhaps not!

Who cares ?

No hard evidence, no god.

I'll have a doozie of an argument with the so-and-so, if in any afterlife, tries to tell me that I have sinned for my perspective.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 November 2011)

drsmith said:


> A question we all get an answer to.
> 
> I'll worry about it when I get there, or perhaps not!
> 
> ...




Agree Doc,

As Kerry Packer said to a young reporter, after his heart stopped for a few minutes.  



> I've been to the other side, and let me tell you son, there's f...ing nothing there




gg


----------



## IFocus (25 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Hell Kennas we agree.





me too.......


----------



## Sean K (30 November 2011)

Syria almost at civil war.

Significant Iranian nuclear and missile facilities have had 'explosions' occur the past  2 weeks. lol

Egypt....well, where is that going?

Yemen, disaster.

The list goes on.

The only thing keeping the world stable is the US. 

Where it all ends up depends on global geopolitical interests. 

What teams are developing? 

Who is on who's side?


----------



## Glen48 (1 December 2011)

I was listening to  report were the Russian have a large fleet off the coast of Syria.

I don't know how USA can fight a war with out money and China won't be funding them it is on.


----------



## Sean K (19 September 2012)

South China Sea heating up.

China and Japan in significant dispute over a few rocks.

A crap C grade movie puts Australian Muslims on war footing.

US starts printing money indefinately.

EU youth unemployment rate about about 50%. 

Pavlich misses AA team. 

It's getting uglier.


----------



## explod (19 September 2012)

kennas said:


> South China Sea heating up.
> 
> China and Japan in significant dispute over a few rocks.
> 
> ...




Good one to dust off there Kennas.

But we cant help pal, 

just party in the veggie patch and your tomatoes will go through the roof.


----------



## Porper (19 September 2012)

kennas said:


> South China Sea heating up.
> 
> China and Japan in significant dispute over a few rocks.
> 
> ...




Summer is arriving.

The Snapper will be back in the pan.

Gold is breaking higher...again.

World Equity markets are heading higher.

All is well!!


----------



## drsmith (19 September 2012)

To the above I would add that the X-Factor has become a pain to watch.


----------



## MrBurns (19 September 2012)

Things seem ok, we are better off in health terms etc but in reality we have lost too many core values so things are actually getting worse.

It's a changing world influenced by the media and now by the social media shock.


----------



## dutchie (25 September 2012)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/25/us-china-japan-taiwan-idUSBRE88O02C20120925

The start of world war three or at least the catalyst for a large wave C?


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 September 2012)

oh.......is this the thread where free meds get handed out......nurse......nurse!!


----------



## Sean K (1 May 2013)

Mass unemployment adds another significant factor to mass conflict. 

*Eurozone hits record with 19m unemployed*
From: AFP May 01, 2013 10:54AM

EUROPEAN unemployment hit a fresh record in March with more than 19 million people out of work as Italy's new premier Enrico Letta added his voice to calls for an end to punishing austerity in favour of policies to spur growth.

As recession continues to sap the eurozone and wider EU, the Eurostat data agency reported an extra 62,000 people joining unemployment queues in just four weeks in the 17-nation eurozone as the jobless rate climbed for the 23rd consecutive month - hitting 12.1 per cent in March.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...h-19m-unemployed/story-e6frg6so-1226632927179


----------



## Sean K (27 August 2013)

Nothing really changed much; except, Syria has probably used chemical weapons on it's own people, and Russia says don't retaliate, or else. 

Tipping point. 

Maybe.


----------



## MrBurns (27 August 2013)

kennas said:


> Nothing really changed much; except, Syria has probably used chemical weapons on it's own people, and Russia says don't retaliate, or else.
> 
> Tipping point.
> 
> Maybe.




Probably inevitable.


----------



## wayneL (27 August 2013)

kennas said:


> Nothing really changed much; except, Syria has probably used chemical weapons on it's own people, and Russia says don't retaliate, or else.
> 
> Tipping point.
> 
> Maybe.




K, just a yes or no answer will do based on what you know... Is Russia in a position to say "or else"?


----------



## Porper (27 August 2013)

kennas said:


> Nothing really changed much; except, Syria has probably used chemical weapons on it's own people, and Russia says don't retaliate, or else.
> 
> Tipping point.
> 
> Maybe.




Tipping point for what? The end of the world...or a world war? Not a cat in hells chance. If a conflict transpires it will hardly have any effect on the rest of the world at all. Look back in history, wars are soon old news and have a positive effect on economies over the longer term.

Not great for the country getting a pasting but Russia wont interfere. They aren't a world power for one thing.


----------



## chiff (27 August 2013)

If Assad did use chemical weapons it would be a strange strategy.The ones more likely to use chemical weapons,that is those with the motive and most to gain, would be the rebels.
Their hope and pleas from getgo have been to get US/foreign intervention.
Assad seems to be surviving OK,so why would take this risk?
I hope it is not a WMDs in Iraq scenario repeating.


----------



## bellenuit (27 August 2013)

chiff said:


> If Assad did use chemical weapons it would be a strange strategy.The ones more likely to use chemical weapons,that is those with the motive and most to gain, would be the rebels.
> Their hope and pleas from getgo have been to get US/foreign intervention.
> Assad seems to be surviving OK,so why would take this risk?
> I hope it is not a WMDs in Iraq scenario repeating.




I tend to agree with you. Assad has a lot to lose by using chemical weapons particularly as he has the upper hand at the moment.  This smells a lot like the WMD issue in Iraq. Some of the rebel extremists would have little concern about murdering their own so long as it is in the name of Allah.


----------



## moXJO (27 August 2013)

*Sorry couldn't post this before, it could be propaganda for all I know*

At 7.20 am 21 August in East Ghouta began a large-scale counter-terrorist operation. Strategically important area of Ghouta - Jobar is the key to Damascus. At the end of last year, it's was captured by the elite forces of the Al-Nusra Front. Because of the ongoing fighting all civilians has left this area for a long time. Now there only militants - not civilians. Consequently, there is not, and cannot be any womens and childrens, whose bodies are now showing the Western media. 
Attack was preceded by a powerful 45-minute barrage. Under air and artillery strikes the foreign militants began to bear huge losses, actually faced the threat of encirclement and annihilation.
At 8 am the infantry approached the enemy and all along the contact line began fightings. Fights go inside the buildings, killing dozens of militants. Therefore quite clear their desperate appeal to sponsors in the West under any pretext to stop an offensive. In this case, under the pretext of a mythical use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army on a proven model of earlier intervention of UN observers, when at 10 am with a Saudi, American and Israeli mass-media began stuffing misinformation about the use of Army chemical weapons. In the early hours by the nonsense or desperation militants openly pointed Jobar as the area of ​​application of chemical weapons.
We continuously document the entire course of the operation by dozens of cameras from different directions. Any expert by the nature of blasts can clearly say that the army used only standard ammunition. No fumes creeping along the ground. Taking into account the windy weather conditions, fightings at short range and the absence of the gas masks for soldiers, inevitably massive loss among soldiers and journalists who are at the forefront from chemical weapon. But none of that. And this is another argument for the falsity of the media reports on the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army.
About fierce fighting says increased use of heavy weapons by terrorists - rockets, recoilless rifles, anti-tank missiles and mortars, modern air defense systems. On the first day, militants hit the IFV and tank. Killed a tank driver - Zeid Afifi, who has a small child. Was killed and 1 infantryman, 17 soldiers were wounded. On the second day a few steps away from the operator of our crew was killed by shrapnel from missile a young crew member recoilless guns B-10. On the third day, about the same picture. Needless loss ratio indicates a high efficiency of counter-terrorist operation.
At the same time, the alleged sarin slacked off militants engaged in an intensive back fire, and this is another argument that the Syrian army has not applied chemical weapons against them.
In impotent rage fighters deliberately shelled from mortars and rocket launchers the journalists and adjacent residential neighborhoods of Damascus, inhabited by peaceful citizens. A few mortar rounds precisely hit the street Fares al Khouri near Al-Abbasyeen square, which at this point were walking women and children. 
Loss of Jobar - key to Damascus - before Geneva-2 is political death for the Al Nusra Front. In a desperate attempt to save the remnants of professional terrorists in Eastern Ghouta, the U.S. State Department made an unforgivable mistake. Running the worn-out record provocation with chemical weapons, the West has actually signed the open support for Al Qaeda.


----------



## Julia (27 August 2013)

moXJO, what is the source of the above.  It is less than literate which provokes suspicion imo.


chiff said:


> If Assad did use chemical weapons it would be a strange strategy.The ones more likely to use chemical weapons,that is those with the motive and most to gain, would be the rebels.
> Their hope and pleas from getgo have been to get US/foreign intervention.
> Assad seems to be surviving OK,so why would take this risk?
> I hope it is not a WMDs in Iraq scenario repeating.



Agree.   As I listened to this on the news where John Kerry was assuring us the evidence was incontrovertible that the Assad government had used chemical weapons against the people, I thought, hell, we can all remember similarly incontrovertible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  And we all know how that turned out.


----------



## moXJO (27 August 2013)

For anyone interested in whats going on over there, this thread is more or less videos + insights from people on the ground.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?204322-Syrian-Uprising-Photos-amp-Videos-only-no-commentary-or-discussion&

Might be propaganda throughout

- - - Updated - - -



Julia said:


> moXJO, what is the source of the above.  It is less than literate which provokes suspicion imo.
> 
> Agree.   As I listened to this on the news where John Kerry was assuring us the evidence was incontrovertible that the Assad government had used chemical weapons against the people, I thought, hell, we can all remember similarly incontrovertible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  And we all know how that turned out.




It was translated from abkhazian news from what I think was a govt soldier (video via the site  I posted). No idea how reliable the source is so take it as bs.
Worth digging around before the US causes another war though


----------



## DB008 (28 August 2013)

US to strike Syria 'as early as Thursday', senior defence officials report

http://www.news.com.au/world-news/middle-east/us-to-strike-syria-8216as-early-as-thursday8217-senior-defence-officials-report/story-fnh81ifq-1226705827932#ixzz2dFZ9cEsM



Went long on oil yesterday, fingers crossed...


----------



## havaiana (28 August 2013)

DB008 said:


> US to strike Syria 'as early as Thursday', senior defence officials report
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/world-news/middle-east/us-to-strike-syria-8216as-early-as-thursday8217-senior-defence-officials-report/story-fnh81ifq-1226705827932#ixzz2dFZ9cEsM
> 
> ...




I have nothing to contribute, just wanted to point out the quality headline for that story, great work...


----------



## qldfrog (28 August 2013)

Julia said:


> moXJO, what is the source of the above.  It is less than literate which provokes suspicion imo.
> 
> Agree.   As I listened to this on the news where John Kerry was assuring us the evidence was incontrovertible that the Assad government had used chemical weapons against the people, I thought, hell, we can all remember similarly incontrovertible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  And we all know how that turned out.




+1
another good job by the military lobby playing the bleeding hearts in the west


----------



## chiff (29 August 2013)

Gore Vidal for years stated,with all of his certainty, that the US was out to get Syria.
From the very start of this uprising against Assad it seems that he was right on the money.


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2013)

And, the world stands by, again. 

Like we did in Cambodia, Rwanda and Kosovo. 

Those people claiming sovereign rights, hidden behind blind indifference and stupidity should be shamed. 

We live in a global society now.

Let's not keep turning a blind eye.   

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/07/politics/us-syria-chemical-attack-videos/index.html?hpt=hp_t1


----------



## CanOz (8 September 2013)

kennas said:


> And, the world stands by, again.
> 
> Like we did in Cambodia, Rwanda and Kosovo.
> 
> ...





This is just more media horse crap Kenna's! Why is no one demanding to know for certain who did this? Would you strike back at an accused murderer without knowing for sure if they did it?

If is entirely probable that the gang of muslim thugs called rebels has done this to bring in the yanks, gullible war mongers that they are. 

I have no trust left to accept that the US will do the right thing in the name of justice....


----------



## moXJO (9 September 2013)

kennas said:


> And, the world stands by, again.
> 
> Like we did in Cambodia, Rwanda and Kosovo.
> 
> ...




You need solid proof before putting even more lives on the line. Bombing targets wont do alot when Assad will just pack targets with human shields. And if Assad was to lose we then have a greater number of chemical weapons in the hands of an even greater threat.
At this stage you need to question who is the bigger threat to stability in the area on any evidence we have. Maybe Russia should step in and regain control. imo US just makes it worse. Bombing Assad risks dragging the west into a full blown war, in an effort that will change little on the ground in Syria.

While something needs to be done, dropping a few bombs on them will cause a lot more trouble.


----------



## waza1960 (9 September 2013)

> And, the world stands by, again.
> 
> Like we did in Cambodia, Rwanda and Kosovo.
> 
> ...




+1.


> You need solid proof before putting even more lives on the line.




 There's enough proof IMO. What happens when nothing is done and more children are killed?


----------



## moXJO (9 September 2013)

So lets drop bombs on them and kill em ourselves.
 Can you say for sure which side killed those kids? 
Cause the proof is real vague at this time.
 How many died in Iraqi after we went in on proof, look at the mess in Egypt or Libya. 
How much more killing goes on if the rebels do get the upper hand and start killing Assad supporters families without discretion, or don't they matter?
How many of our young men should we tally up to be allowed to die in another useless conflict.

If Assad is Russia's 'backed man' then they should be pushed to provide stability instead of the west going in and setting off WW3. That or the UN needs to push for a decision. 

It's not as easy as just dropping bombs on them to sort out this mess. What kind of f*cking long term plan is that seriously and what exactly do you think it's going to achieve. From what I know the US is just going to drop some bombs on them then watch the mess from afar. How exactly does that stop any killing?
Yes something needs to be done. But a longer term plan involving Russia would more than likely provide a solution that may not be ideal for anyone but would be better then any alternatives at this time.

Don't drop that "think of the children crap on me either. Because I want the least amount of pain for them in a bad situation. Weighing up Assads position of more then likely wanting to limit civilian casualties because the world is watching and the rebels position of do what is needed to take out Assad using any means, becomes making the best of a bad situation.
I do not support one side or the other in the conflict.

I hope you lot are thinking of the children starving in third world countries and are supporting charities that feed them. Because that is an action you can have a direct part in to save lives without starting a fricken war over.

It's not as simple as lets drop bombs on them.


----------



## chiff (9 September 2013)

kennas said:


> And, the world stands by, again.
> 
> Like we did in Cambodia, Rwanda and Kosovo.
> 
> ...



Not to mention Vietnam,Iraq etc...perhaps they do not suit this righteous scenario.Is the US responsible for the most killing in the last fifty years?At last their propaganda has not got the same credibility as it once had.


----------



## CanOz (9 September 2013)

Charlie Rose interviews Assad, to be broadcast Sunday night in the US on Bloomberg radio. Check Bloomberg for listings....should be available as a podcast after as well.

All of this as the Obama PR machine goes to work to change the minds of the people...


----------



## Calliope (9 September 2013)

CanOz said:


> This is just more media horse crap Kenna's! Why is no one demanding to know for certain who did this? Would you strike back at an accused murderer without knowing for sure if they did it?
> 
> If is entirely probable that the gang of muslim thugs called rebels has done this to bring in the yanks, gullible war mongers that they are.




Who cares which side did it. If they want to kill each other that's their business. I think most of those who are scared of the murderous thugs on both sides have already fled the country. I saw on the news the other day a guy with two wives and 10 kids had fled to Lebanon. Thank god they won't be coming here now.

A lot of Syrian thugs from here have gone over there to fight for one side or the other. I hope the Abbott government has the guts to refuse them re-entry.

However if the Americans can't decide which side to bomb, I suggest they write on the sides of their Smart Bombs "BADDIES ONLY" and let them decide if they're so smart.


----------



## Sdajii (9 September 2013)

Calliope said:


> Who cares which side did it. If they want to kill each other that's their business.




Right or wrong, the argument for taking action is that if we stand by and do nothing when someone carries out a chemical attack, it sends the message to others that we will stand by if they too break international convention and use chemical weapons to attack people.

I don't know who attacked whom or if the entire thing is fictional propaganda from those wanting to go in for their own reasons, but if someone actually did use chemical weapons to attack people it does make sense for action to be taken against them. If no action is taken and others start attacking their enemies with chemical weapons, or if other governments control protestors with chemical weapons, and it gets out of hand, action will need to be taken, and the question will be asked "Why now and not earlier?" and it will certainly seem that whoever is hit first is being treated as the enemy while all those before are being given immunity.

It's a messy situation. Either a chemical attack was carried out, which necessitates action which will be difficult, or someone is being framed, which is even messier.


----------



## Calliope (9 September 2013)

Sdajii said:


> Right or wrong, the argument for taking action is that if we stand by and do nothing when someone carries out a chemical attack, it sends the message to others that we will stand by if they too break international convention and use chemical weapons to attack people.




Okay Sdajii. I guess you are suggesting a limited surgical missile strike to remove the cancer. What are your targets? I think the likely outcome of such an adventure would be a retaliatory strike on Israel. Assad, Iran and the Hamas are itching for an excuse. 

The Middle East is a powder keg just waiting for some idiot to light the fuse. America always seems to be the idiot that puts its hand up, even when their citizens are against it.


----------



## nioka (9 September 2013)

Calliope said:


> America always seems to be the idiot that puts its hand up, even when their citizens are against it.




I'm glad they were idiots during the second world war. You'll be lucky if, in your life time, you will not need them to be idiots again in the same way.


----------



## CanOz (9 September 2013)

There are a wider range of Geo-political considerations at stake here. As usual the US will go into this with the "humanitarian" flag waving proudly...then go about killing and maiming just as many innocent unarmed civilians as whomever perpetrated the gas attack, with their stray smart bombs and missiles. 

This conflict will end up being more about Iran and Israel, than Syria at some stage...


----------



## Calliope (9 September 2013)

nioka said:


> I'm glad they were idiots during the second world war. You'll be lucky if, in your life time, you will not need them to be idiots again in the same way.




Nit picking again.They didn't do it for us mate. It was Pearl Harbour that forced them to get involved and we were just lucky that they did. So it was self interest for them and luck for us. Who in the Middle East is is threatening American Borders? And who will get lucky if they attack Syria? Us again?


----------



## MrBurns (10 September 2013)

Syria have agreed to surrender all chemical weapons, I hope the US back off, Obama has little support for a strike.

I just don't want another war.......I'm sick of it, if there is another solution go for it.


----------



## bellenuit (10 September 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Syria have agreed to surrender all chemical weapons, I hope the US back off, Obama has little support for a strike.




I agree. This is an opportunity that should not be discarded.

I heard Obama on the radio this morning. This is how I remember what was said.

Obama: We have overwhelming proof that chemical weapons were used.
Reporter: Used by the Assad regime?
Obama: Used full stop.

That answer doesn't sound convincing to me that it was Assad's side that used them.


----------



## MrBurns (10 September 2013)

bellenuit said:


> I agree. This is an opportunity that should not be discarded.
> 
> I heard Obama on the radio this morning. This is how I remember what was said.
> 
> ...




It probably was Assad but if there's anyway of preventing it happening again besides starting another war they should at least try it.
If Assad is willing to hand over all chemical weapons that's an admission of defeat and that should do for now.


----------



## CanOz (10 September 2013)

This is getting interesting, Russia could come out smelling like a rose if they can broker a deal here, that will piss off the Obama administration. Is see the Rebloodlicans are backing down now saying Obama didn't handle it properly and he should withdraw the request from Congress. 

Every time Kerry opens his pie hole i trust him less and less.


----------



## Julia (10 September 2013)

CanOz said:


> Every time Kerry opens his pie hole i trust him less and less.



+1.  Even in the face of Russia's suggestion he was trying to suggest they didn't really mean it, that it was just a throw-away comment.  He and Obama seem intent on rushing to bombing which hardly seems an answer and is almost certain to spark wider conflict.   It's so like a re-run of the Iraq con.


----------



## CanOz (10 September 2013)

Julia said:


> +1.  Even in the face of Russia's suggestion he was trying to suggest they didn't really mean it, that it was just a throw-away comment.  He and Obama seem intent on rushing to bombing which hardly seems an answer and is almost certain to spark wider conflict.   It's so like a re-run of the Iraq con.




Absolutely Julia, i can't believe their PR people can't pick up on that...They're so dismissive of any contrary opinions.

Its really annoying that world leaders behave this way...not surprising but just annoying...disturbing actually.

They may have forgotten history but the masses haven't...


----------



## chiff (10 September 2013)

I heard this morning that the last president of the US not to invade or attack another country was Eisenhower.


----------



## satanoperca (10 September 2013)

Hi,

Change your view of the situation.

USA : men in suits sitting behind closed doors, we really need a fight somewhere in the world, we just need to have a somewhat valid reason.

Syria situation fires up VIA some nasty chemical weapons

USA : finally a situation that allows us to get into a fight, load the guns and get ready.

The real question is :-
Why would America desire a military strike on Syria? What have they to gain? Ultimately it is financial driven as they don't have the finances to look after the massive underclass that exists 

We need to ask ourselves this, as they are hardly a country that is prospering right now.

PS I don't have the answers.


----------



## moXJO (10 September 2013)

satanoperca said:


> Hi,
> 
> Change your view of the situation.
> 
> ...




US at the moment has its dirty little fingers in everything. The fact they target Australians in their data mining exercise should put them at arms length when it comes to trust. Id be following blackwaters little holy crusade through the middle east and asking questions


----------



## Sdajii (11 September 2013)

Calliope said:


> Nit picking again.They didn't do it for us mate. It was Pearl Harbour that forced them to get involved and we were just lucky that they did. So it was self interest for them and luck for us. Who in the Middle East is is threatening American Borders? And who will get lucky if they attack Syria? Us again?




It's hardly a trivial issue. As I said, I'm not sure what the USA's motives are in this case or who used the chemical weapons or if chemical weapons were used, but, we are lucky that there is someone there to step in if someone does the wrong thing. It may not have been you or your family, and it may not be you or your family next, but don't you think the concept of someone stepping in when someone does the wrong thing is nice? What you're saying about no one in Syria attacking the USA in this case is a bit like saying that since some guy in Sydney murdered his wife the police shouldn't bother investigating because the woman wasn't in the police force and the man had no interest in taking action against the police, and since you are not a target you don't care if they leave him alone.

We don't step in when someone does the wrong thing because we are directly threatened by that incident, we do so because it keeps everyone safer. If chemical weapons are used with no response, others will do the same. If there is a murder and no one bothers to do anything, there will be more murders. If any crime goes without response, that crime will become more common. It's nice to live in a relatively safe world. I think as Australians we often take that for granted and just assume that peace is a guarantee even if we stop working to maintain it. That simply isn't the case. We're just so fortunate that the maintenance of peace has been so effective that some of us seem to think that system is unnecessary. I assure it, it is as necessary now as it has ever been.


----------



## chiff (11 September 2013)

Did we step in when the US used chemical weapons in Fallujah or when the Israelis used white phosphorus in Gaza.
Of course not!It did not suit our politics.If you control the media, one can by propaganda-emphasis and repetition- sway the way that most people think.Goebells got this down to an art form.
This time it is not working.
Look up which countries will not get rid of their chemical weapons.


----------



## MrBurns (11 September 2013)

chiff said:


> Did we step in when the US used chemical weapons in Fallujah or when the Israelis used white phosphorus in Gaza.
> Of course not!It did not suit our politics.If you control the media, one can by propaganda-emphasis and repetition- sway the way that most people think.Goebells got this down to an art form.
> This time it is not working.
> Look up which countries will not get rid of their chemical weapons.




I don't think Obama will do this, people don't want any more war unless absolutely necessary and this is not a popular cause if Syria gives up his weapons.


----------



## chiff (11 September 2013)

I hope you are right Mr Burns.


----------



## Calliope (11 September 2013)

Sdajii said:


> As I said, I'm not sure what the USA's motives are in this case or who used the chemical weapons or and since you are not a target you don't care if they leave him alone.
> 
> We don't step in when someone does the wrong thing because we are directly threatened by that incident, we do so because it keeps everyone safer. If chemical weapons are used with no response, others will do the same. If there is a murder and no one bothers to do anything, there will be more murders. If any crime goes without response, that crime will become more common.




I can see what you are on about Sdajii, but America can't punish all the villains. The drug trade across the Mexican  Border is a bigger threat to American society than Assad's chemicals ever were. This is also a form of chemical warfare. By your reasoning, I guess Obama should do a bit of selective bombing in Mexico, Columbia and Cuba to scare the baddies.

Anyway you know as well as I do, that this idiotic Syrian adventure is not going to happen. The American public are opposed to butting into another foreign debacle, when Obama can't get out of Afghanistan quickly enough... and leave the Taliban back in control... business as usual.


----------



## moXJO (11 September 2013)

Probably won't get much airtime and as he admits no where near solid proof, but the amount of propaganda the press is pushing for war I'm glad some doubt is out there.



> Domenico Quirico, an Italian journalist, and Pierre Piccinin, a Belgian teacher, disclosed a grim account of their captivity in Syria as well as potentially new information about the chemical weapon attacks, upon their return to Rome Sunday.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




http://www.usnews.com/news/newsgram/articles/2013/09/10/freed-hostages-reveal-information-on-chemical-attacks-in-syria

Bit more from the same hostage



> "Our captors were from a group that professed itself to be Islamist but that in reality is made up of mixed-up young men who have joined the revolution because the revolution now belongs to these groups that are midway between banditry and fanaticism," he said.
> 
> "They follow whoever promises them a future, gives them weapons, gives them money to buy cell phones, computers, clothes."
> 
> ...



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24039309

Funnily enough the BBC doesn't mention the chemical weapons.



> “During our kidnapping, we were kept completely in the dark about what was going on in Syria, including the gas attacks in Damascus”, Quirico said. “But one day, we heard a Skype conversation in English between three people whose names I do not know. We heard the conversation from the room in which we were being held captive, through a half-closed door. One of them had previously presented himself to us as a general of the Syrian Liberation Army. The other two we had never seen and knew nothing about”.
> 
> “During the Skype conversation, they said that the gas attack on the two neighbourhoods in Damascus had been carried out by rebels as a provocation, to push the West towards a military intervention. They also said they believed the death toll had been exaggerated,” Quirico said in his statement.
> 
> “I don’t know if any of this is true and I cannot say for sure that it is true because I have no means of confirming the truth of what was said. I don’t know how reliable this information is and cannot confirm the identity of these people. I am in no position to say for sure whether this conversation is based on real fact or just hearsay and I don’t usually call conversations I have heard through a door, true,” Quirico said.




http://www.lastampa.it/2013/09/09/esteri/quirico-it-is-madness-to-say-i-knew-it-wasnt-assad-who-used-gas-FjJDJ8oeEI19AZbyKIVBHJ/pagina.html

Little bit more detail on the event.


----------



## MrBurns (11 September 2013)

moXJO said:


> Probably won't get much airtime and as he admits no where near solid proof, but the amount of propaganda the press is pushing for war I'm glad some doubt is out there.
> 
> .




There's no doubt he did it, who else would have done it ?

There will be no military retaliation if he gets rid of his chemical weapons.


----------



## moXJO (11 September 2013)

MrBurns said:


> There's no doubt he did it, who else would have done it ?
> 
> There will be no military retaliation if he gets rid of his chemical weapons.




The rebels were getting hammered right before the attack. IMO its not clear cut if he did it or not.




> Leaked Iranian letter warned US that Syrian rebels have chemical weapons
> According to leaked diplomatic correspondence, Iran has been warning Washington since July 2012 that Sunni rebel fighters have acquired chemical weapons, and called on the US to send “an immediate and serious warning” to rebel groups not to use them.



http://news.yahoo.com/leaked-iranian-letter-warned-us-syrian-rebels-chemical-184400423.html



Hey all you lefties wanna stop a war, join the campaign



> Human Shields-Campaign to protect Syria against a baseless war of aggression.
> Many people around the world are asking themselves what they could do to stop the madness of a war of aggression against Syria.
> I receive continuously emails with this question, too. Activists have now found an answer, namely to go to Syria as human shields and to stand there as potential targets of American bombs and missiles. Thus, they hope to prevent the attack.
> The “Human Shield Movement” initially received the worldwide attention in 2003 when several hundred Western activists consisting of all ages, professions and nationalities went to Iraq in order to try to prevent the bombardment and the invasion by U.S. forces and to stand in their way.




http://www.syrianews.cc/prevent-war-human-shields-syria/


----------



## CanOz (11 September 2013)

The next thing we'll hear is that the bloody CIA helped the rebels, essentially al Qaeda, obtain the chemical weapons in order to make it look like Assad gassed his own people so the US would get involved with the full blessings of their people....

This Farking government is more crooked the any dictatorship in history...I wouldn't put anything past them anymore...


----------



## Sean K (2 January 2014)

I'm not sure how long this 'brink' will be but it's creeping up.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/wo...and-2014-present/story-fni0xs61-1226793586357


----------



## McLovin (2 January 2014)

kennas said:


> I'm not sure how long this 'brink' will be but it's creeping up.
> 
> http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/wo...and-2014-present/story-fni0xs61-1226793586357




The problem with that scenario is that China has never been an expansionary power. The Europeans all were. Really, European wars were more like family feuds, given how inbred they all were.

Plus, America still has such a huge military advantage over everyone else, an advantage that far outstrips Britain's advantage over Germany in 1914. China knows that.


----------



## CanOz (2 January 2014)

McLovin said:


> The problem with that scenario is that China has never been an expansionary power. The Europeans all were. Really, European wars were more like family feuds, given how inbred they all were.
> 
> Plus, America still has such a huge military advantage over everyone else, an advantage that far outstrips Britain's advantage over Germany in 1914. China knows that.




There would be no way the PRC military machine would be reliable enough to compete...in a conventional confrontation. Seriously, they cannot maintain anything...everything looks good on the outside, but its all just a facade...hidden are the defects, the malfunctioning components, the rusty guts...


----------



## Sean K (2 January 2014)

McLovin said:


> The problem with that scenario is that China has never been an expansionary power. The Europeans all were. Really, European wars were more like family feuds, given how inbred they all were.
> 
> Plus, America still has such a huge military advantage over everyone else, advantage that far outstrips Britain's advantage over Germany in 1914. China knows that.



Good points, but not sure about history of Chinese expansionism. Has never a Chinese society had any expansionist ideas? And, not sure about relative forces is 1914. Surely the US is overall more powerful now, but they are spread pretty thin. 

I think the article only gives a hint at what is going on around the planet. There are a number of other factors drawing us to conflict that have been discussed elsewhere. I hope that a balance of power is maintained somehow, because I know humans can't deal with otherwise.

Benevolent despotism seems quite fanciful.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 January 2014)

kennas said:


> Good points, but not sure about history of Chinese expansionism. Has never a Chinese society had any expansionist ideas? And, not sure about relative forces is 1914. Surely the US is overall more powerful now, but they are spread pretty thin.
> 
> I think the article only gives a hint at what is going on around the planet. There are a number of other factors drawing us to conflict that have been discussed elsewhere. I hope that a balance of power is maintained somehow, because I know humans can't deal with otherwise.
> 
> Benevolent despotism seems quite fanciful.




The Chinese always go home for New Year, so, any wars can only last 11 months.

gg


----------



## Sean K (2 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> There would be no way the PRC military machine would be reliable enough to compete...in a conventional confrontation. Seriously, they cannot maintain anything...everything looks good on the outside, but its all just a facade...hidden are the defects, the malfunctioning components, the rusty guts...



Agree, not right this second, but they are developing at such a rapid pace, aren't they? The number of active ships and aircraft and missiles they are developing is pretty impressive. Yes, can not compete with the US, but which part of the US?


----------



## McLovin (2 January 2014)

kennas said:


> Good points, but not sure about history of Chinese expansionism. Has never a Chinese society had any expansionist ideas?




Not really. It's pretty interesting to have a look at how powerful China was economically and militarily in the 15th/16th century, and did not become like a European power trying to annex other countries, even though they completely dwarfed the rest of SE Asia and could have marched in without too much difficulty. Even the treasure voyages of the 14th century were largely peaceful, even though the Chinese had assembled the largest group of warships the world had ever seen. The Chinese just aren't that interested in projecting themselves around the globe. Why bother with the barbarians etc. I think they're more pragmatic than often given credit for.

Now, all the stuff happening with Japan is kind of understandable. China is an emerging super power and currently _all_ its eastern approaches (ie the way for it to trade with the world) are controlled by the US. The US has air bases in Korea, Japan, The Philippines, and has Taiwan on its side. I think China has a legitimate claim that the US is trying to contain and control them (have a look at map to see what I mean), afterall, America didn't take too kindly to the Soviets putting missiles in Cuba.



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> And, not sure about relative forces is 1914. Surely the US is overall more powerful now, but they are spread pretty thin.




The US has 11 aircraft carriers, China has one, and it's an ex-Ukrainian job from the Cold War, and they don't have any planes to land on it. China's ability to project force isn't a shade on the US, for now.



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I think the article only gives a hint at what is going on around the planet. There are a number of other factors drawing us to conflict that have been discussed elsewhere. I hope that a balance of power is maintained somehow, because I know humans can't deal with otherwise.




It seems to me that the world is adjusting back to a multipolar power system.


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2014)

Is it really converging, or is disaster just well communicated in this age?

I'm not sure. 

Sides are forming around the old Russia and US ideology at this point, which is troubling. Russia are back in the game because of oil and gas. And US weakness. Add China to Russia equals, oh crap.  

Some additional disasters waiting to form their own out-of-state momentum:

Ukraine
Thailand
Argentina
Venezuela
North v South Africa (Islam v Christianity - eeek)
South China Sea

The world is on the brink. 

Button up people.


----------



## rumpole (20 February 2014)

kennas said:


> Is it really converging, or is disaster just well communicated in this age?
> 
> 
> The world is on the brink.
> ...




We shoulda had nukes years ago


----------



## Sean K (1 March 2014)

Eventually, I'll be right, like every economic forecaster...

The Crimea is the latest hot spot, but Russia is smart enough to know they don't have the strategic support to make an impact, yet. But if another significant power backs them, it could be troubling. The only one who people might think about is China, but they are not ready. Not enough strategic lift by sea or air. Maybe.    

While the US and NATO have total control of international security, all OK. 

When that breaks down, take cover peeps.


----------



## db94 (1 March 2014)

kennas said:


> Eventually, I'll be right, like every economic forecaster...
> 
> The Crimea is the latest hot spot, but Russia is smart enough to know they don't have the strategic support to make an impact, yet. But if another significant power backs them, it could be troubling. The only one who people might think about is China, but they are not ready. Not enough strategic lift by sea or air. Maybe.
> 
> ...




Crimea is predominantly resided by Russian people so Russia will move in there and take that. Apparently the residents of Crimea want the Russians there, from what I've on the net etc. Here's some helicopters moving in:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865

They wont be foolish enough to try all of Ukraine. The US will step in well before that even looks like it happens. If a war does erupt, it wont be a long one.

Nothing really to worry about


----------



## basilio (2 March 2014)

Given the Russian civilian presence  in the Crimea and the importance of the Black Sea naval fleet it would be ridiculous to expect Russia not to protect its interest in that area.  If the new government won't acknowledge that point than Putin will simply make it clear on the ground.


----------



## chiff (2 March 2014)

I think that you have got it Bas...Russia has to have its space,as do all big powers, and encroach on that at your own risk.This will all be solved diplomatically.
When the west got too involved in Georgia-on Russia's border-Putin solved the problem.
We are badly served by mainstream media .


----------



## Sean K (14 March 2014)

Yes, Crimea is Russian as is other states on the eastern side on Ukraine. There lies the problem. Russia is now in control of Crimea and will take the other states that are ethnically Russian. This is illegal against international law. Much like us invading Iraq. However, no one can oppose the US, with some other uniforms hanging on. This is Russia, flying solo, with not even China making a statement. This is so outlandish it could be trouble. In a geo strategic sense, the Ukraine is incredibly important, along with Poland. Poland must be on the edge right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see major exercises occurring around there now with NATO. Oh dear. 

Put this on top of everything else going on....

Mali
CAR
Egypt
Venezuela
Thailand
Yemen
Iraq
Sudan
Afghan

Essendon v ASADA....


----------



## Ves (14 March 2014)

kennas said:


> Essendon v ASADA....



Boy oh boy.... woweee....   step up Stephen Dank.   I agree,   the world must be on the brink if he has anything to do with it.  

Good to see you have kept your sense of humour, Kennas!


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2014)

Russia is really pushing the boundaries here. They are making NATO and the US look weak. Which can only go for so long, because they are not. Tread carefully Putin. 

I'm concerned that a few countries are starting to have a common enemy: Russia, China, Nth Korea, Syria, Iran. 

All giving the bird to the West.


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2014)

NATO deploying all around Russia. Start of a new Cold War, at best.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/...itain-France-Deploy-Jets-Boost-Baltic-Patrols

This is WW1 like, where we have a few micro States, like the Balkans, with strategic agreements with major powers who have guaranteed their security.

Add Syria, the troubles in Africa, and China competing with everyone else in the South China Sea and ...


----------



## Knobby22 (30 April 2014)

I don't think Russia really want to go through the pain and takeover the eastern half of Ukraine, however the majority Russian population want to change because Russia is wealthier.  

Russia needed the Crimea so they had access to a winter port.


----------



## Sean K (8 June 2014)

The converging conflicts of ideology, economics and territory are so reminiscent of WWII it's got to be concerning for students of history. For those thinking this is a storm in a tea cup, read up.


----------



## prawn_86 (16 June 2014)

A reported 1700 massacred in Iraq by ISIS and 49 dead in Ukraine after a military plane shot down.

More media coverage or are things really getting 'worse'?


----------



## trainspotter (16 June 2014)

prawn_86 said:


> A reported 1700 massacred in Iraq by ISIS and 49 dead in Ukraine after a military plane shot down.
> 
> More media coverage or are things really getting 'worse'?




Compared to over 230,000 Indonesians getting wiped out in the Boxing Day Tsunami this is a paltry amount.

Considering that 35,000 people per annum die in the USA from a motor vehicle accident then once again the amount is minuscule.

In Australia 290 people die from smoking every week. 

Things are decidedly getting 'worse' in the war zones (this week)


----------



## sydboy007 (17 June 2014)

http://ourfiniteworld.com/author/gailtheactuary/

quite sobering reading

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/05/0...ome-connection-to-world-oil-and-gas-problems/


----------



## Sean K (21 June 2014)

prawn_86 said:


> A reported 1700 massacred in Iraq by ISIS and 49 dead in Ukraine after a military plane shot down.
> 
> More media coverage or are things really getting 'worse'?



More media, but media only go to the stories that will sell more papers and ultimately look after themselves. Like a lot of NGOs...

This all goes back to crap Western decisions in the carve up of Africa and the Middle East post WWII, religion, unemployment, and just too many humans on the planet!

But yes, things are getting worse, IMO...


----------



## Judd (21 June 2014)

kennas said:


> More media, but media only go to the stories that will sell more papers and ultimately look after themselves. Like a lot of NGOs...
> 
> This all goes back to crap Western decisions in the carve up of Africa and the Middle East post WWII, religion, unemployment, and just too many humans on the planet!
> 
> But yes, things are getting worse, IMO...




I put the blame on the decision to build the Tower of Babel.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 June 2014)

> This all goes back to crap Western decisions in the carve up of Africa and the Middle East post WWII, religion, unemployment, and just too many humans on the planet!




Not to mention the world wide arms trade which makes it more likely that people will kill each other to resolve their differences rather than negotiate.


----------



## chiff (21 June 2014)

I heard a Jordanian diplomat the other night speaking on the problems in the region.He stated that the majority of people in the Middle East blamed the US military-industrial complex with their bases and aircraft carriers in the region.Also that people thought that the region was used as testing ground for the new US weapons.The situation would be much better in the middle east if the US had never got involved he stated.


----------



## sydboy007 (29 June 2014)

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46219.html

quite sobering reading.  certainly seems that the situation in Iraq is much worse than I had thought.


----------



## noco (30 June 2014)

What a terrifying summary of what is happening around the world today.

Why in the hell people cannot live in peace and stay in their own backyards is beyond comprehension.

The killings and the total waste of money being spent on arms could have fed and clothes millions of people in poverty.

Is there a GOD????? if there is why is all this tragedy being allowed to happen?

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/wo...the-brink-of-war/story-fni0xs61-1226971975158


----------



## sydboy007 (30 June 2014)

noco said:


> What a terrifying summary of what is happening around the world today.
> 
> Why in the hell people cannot live in peace and stay in their own backyards is beyond comprehension.
> 
> ...




strangely you have no problem with the capitalist USA pretty much spending more than the rest of the world combined on it's military???


----------



## noco (30 June 2014)

sydboy007 said:


> strangely you have no problem with the capitalist USA pretty much spending more than the rest of the world combined on it's military???




They are your words not mine.

Can you provide a link or some statistics on your claim that the USA is spending more than the rest of the world combined on it's military......I think you may be exaggerating a little..... don't you?

IMHO I believe the USA should have kept out of the Middle East instead of trying to preach democracy in the Islamic states.......democracy will never work in the Middle East and perhaps they may have been better off under a dictatorship.....Unfortunately, because of the fanatical status of Islam,  where Shiites and Sunnis cannot agree on their political beliefs apart from their religious beliefs, they know one way only on how to speak and that is with the gun.....in consequence, many lives are lost through ethnic cleansing.

I believe if the USA had stayed in their own back yard and had let Islam sought out their own problems of various Islamic factions, we would have less terrorist  operating around the world today...they would have been too busy fighting amongst themselves.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 June 2014)

noco said:


> I believe if the USA had stayed in their own back yard and had let Islam sought out their own problems of various Islamic factions, we would have less terrorist  operating around the world today...they would have been too busy fighting amongst themselves.




But would these factions fighting amongst themselves have kept the oil flowing?

Therein lies the problem. Natural resources are behind quite a bit of this I think.


----------



## sptrawler (30 June 2014)

noco said:


> I believe if the USA had stayed in their own back yard and had let Islam sought out their own problems of various Islamic factions, we would have less terrorist  operating around the world today...they would have been too busy fighting amongst themselves.




The problem was, the Islamic militants started playing in the U.S backyard on 9/11,


----------



## So_Cynical (30 June 2014)

noco said:


> They are your words not mine.
> 
> Can you provide a link or some statistics on your claim that the USA is spending more than the rest of the world combined on it's military......I think you may be exaggerating a little..... don't you?




Exaggerated a little, but not far from the truth...its a well known fact that the US military spend is enormous in comparison to all other country's.

Ships like this are not cheap.






http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
~


----------



## sptrawler (30 June 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Exaggerated a little, but not far from the truth...its a well known fact that the US military spend is enormous in comparison to all other country's.
> 
> Ships like this are not cheap.
> 
> ...




And from Australia's perspective, the problem is?


----------



## noco (30 June 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> But would these factions fighting amongst themselves have kept the oil flowing?
> 
> Therein lies the problem. Natural resources are behind quite a bit of this I think.




This is something I cannot quite understand.......I once read where the USA has enough oil in their own back yard to last 1000 years, so why are they so concerned about middle east oil?

Does the USA want to use up all the oil in the middle east first and later on be the major oil supplier of the world?


----------



## sydboy007 (1 July 2014)

noco said:


> They are your words not mine.
> 
> Can you provide a link or some statistics on your claim that the USA is spending more than the rest of the world combined on it's military......I think you may be exaggerating a little..... don't you?
> 
> ...




http://www.globalfirepower.com/defense-spending-budget.asp

the graph isn't every country, but you get the picture non the less.

Well, Australians marched against sending in troops to Iraq, yet Howard was all the way with Dubbya with troops over there.  All because a few neocons just had to go and invade with no real reason.  You can't even argue it was a humanitarian decision because the death rate hasn't been reduced.


----------



## prawn_86 (18 July 2014)

Malaysian passenger plane shot down over the Ukraine. 300 people suspected dead.

Unclear as to if it was Russia or Ukraine rebels with Russian technology, either way it is not good for Putin as this was meant to be an 'internal' conflict


----------



## Sean K (21 July 2014)

Not a tipping point yet, because the world economy is, as advertised, supposedly improving. But, the debt! It will only take the economic situation to really implode that the security situation will implode. You know the potential black swans. 

At the moment, the West doesn't have the appetite to challenge Russia with force. And this was not enough. If it had have been an AA flight, hmm. Even then, hmm. 

In regards to the questions about Sunni v Shia and the West being a participant in that. Go back to the history books. We're just supporting whichever side is our friend of the moment. In WWII we, along with China and the Russians, fought Japan and Germany... We generally fight against common enemies in a particular phase of social and political development.   

America no longer needs Middle East O&G but many more European countries do. And many more need gas from Russia. 

The chess pieces keep moving around the board. 

Are we watching Game of Thrones?


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 July 2014)

kennas said:


> America no longer needs Middle East O&G but many more European countries do. And many more need gas from Russia.




America, as in the USA, is still a major oil importer despite their own production rising in recent times. They've reduced the problem of depending on imports but they haven't eliminated it. Meanwhile rising consumption in China etc and an imminent peak of production in Russia (according to their own forecasts) mean that the likes of Saudi Arabia won't have any trouble selling as much oil as they produce. 

The direction of shipping might be changing, but the world as a whole is still very much dependent on ME oil.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2014)

Russia invading the Ukraine wasn't really on the radar not long ago.

Taking advantage of the West still engaged in Afghanistan and concerned about the Middle East. 

Nice work Putin.


----------



## SirRumpole (29 August 2014)

The US imports a large amount of oil from Canada, followed by Saudi Arabia, and so is less dependent on oil from Iraq these days. It probably wouldn't be worth going to war in Iraq just for the oil.

http://www.npr.org/2012/04/11/150444802/where-does-america-get-oil-you-may-be-surprised


----------



## Sean K (3 September 2014)

No, we won't go to save the Ukraine. Even if we do like their Chicken Kiev. You need to study history to see how this might be ok, but in the modern world, changing boundaries is really dodgy. There's all sorts of precedents being set that might flow on. It's now ok to annex another country and the rest of the world says ok? Huh?? I think Russia has only got away with this because of the distractions in the Middle East. And the US handing over their position of the global super power. They are looking weak. 

The Islamic State is something else entirely. This is really, really, changing the ball game. A very long term conflict is emerging.


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2014)

Now, while the world is distracted by Syria, Ukraine, Boko Haram, Gaza, Afghan (we're still there), China building plots in the Sth China Sea, and this little Iraq adventure, what happens next? Ebola anyone?

Most of this is only happening because we're getting distracted and not focussing on any one thing. 

Perfect opportunity for someone else to step up to the plate.

What's next I wonder.


----------



## Sean K (17 December 2014)

Interesting article (although a little self serving) regarding the effect of decisions post past conflicts and how they have made the world what it is now. Eg, the lack of foresight in carving up the Middle East post WW1 and not supporting Russia after the break up of the Soviet Union. That has significantly contributed to what we all face now. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30483873


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2016)

OK, thread started a little while ago. Like someone calling a crash every year for 5 years and it being right 5 years later... lol

The teams are shaping up, and it looks bad.

The three reasons why major conflicts start are:

1. Resources
2. Alliances
3. Religion

We're already in the major conflict part really.

Why are we really ever at conflict:

1. Too many humans.


----------



## luutzu (20 January 2016)

kennas said:


> OK, thread started a little while ago. Like someone calling a crash every year for 5 years and it being right 5 years later... lol
> 
> The teams are shaping up, and it looks bad.
> 
> ...




Not really.

Humans have been at war since they were apes and only a few on them were around.

Conflict tend to happen when resources are not distributed fairly or equally.

If you could convince the masses that inequality is acceptable, that them having less and them other having more... though unequal, but fair, then no conflict. But if unequal but unfair, then all you need is a spark and it'll be time for new monuments and new masters.

So take Australia... we know there are rich people and they seem to have it good. Most Australians are fine with that because it's good on 'em lucky bastards, we'll just have to work harder and find opportunities and we too could do alright for ourselves.

Egalitarian, merit-based, equal opportunity for all etc. Fair dinkum.

But if the masses keep working and keep labouring and getting nowhere, they will start to not blame themselves for being lazy (because they're working day and night)... and if they see that the system is rigged and stopped buying the bs about Muslims and immigrants/refugees taking their lunch and dinner, that's when you either feed the masses to free footies and crickets and some handouts or else they'll be marching.

See, when you extract everything from a stone then kick it around after you're done... there will be some who will pick it up and crack your head with it. Rich people got to learn that and we'll all live in peace and enjoy the footies (why or how people could enjoy that is another story).


----------



## SirRumpole (20 January 2016)

luutzu said:


> See, when you extract everything from a stone then kick it around after you're done... there will be some who will pick it up and crack your head with it. Rich people got to learn that and we'll all live in peace and enjoy the footies (why or how people could enjoy that is another story).




Rich people get rich because of the consumer base of the mass market.

Unfortunately we seem to be importing more consumers at the same time that we are exporting jobs so less consumers are being paid so they can't afford to buy the rich people's products.

Bad luck for both the rich and everyone else. The rich will then try to chase the international markets and will try to depress the wages of the workforce so they can be "internationally competitive". Less wages, less consumption in this country, more unemployment, stock market crashes, recession.

We have got away with it so far but the boom times are over and we will either muddle through or come crashing down.


----------



## luutzu (20 January 2016)

SirRumpole said:


> Rich people get rich because of the consumer base of the mass market.
> 
> Unfortunately we seem to be importing more consumers at the same time that we are exporting jobs so less consumers are being paid so they can't afford to buy the rich people's products.
> 
> ...




That's one way. There are others: tax codes; financial speculation/bail-out; good accountants; economic/fiscal policies; monetary policies that give them free money at the poor buggers' savings...

It's understandable they do what they do, just there need to be a leader who would rein them in to save them from themselves.

Say I'm the only rich guy in the country. It just make no sense for me to make all my potential consumer base poor. If they're poor how can they pay me for my stuff? if their job are not secure, how could they be happy and spoil their family with gifts and turn up to work doing their best? If I ship their jobs away, where are they going to get pay to buy my bacon?

The solution seems to be that yea... so they are poor and can't afford much, so let them get their other spouse to work. Since their job is insecure, they'll work for less; Since the states have been selling all these assets and the costs of living has gone up; let them borrow more of my money and I can charge them at cutthroat rates.

But I guess it will eventually work out somehow, if not then they'll just build higher fences or something.

----

Hope the boom will come back... but man. Keynesian policy would tell the gov't to invest freely during recessions. I have not heard or seen much at all past few years.

The NBN was promising, then Abbott came along and now Turnbull and I think Murdoch and Telstra won the day with NBN.

Maybe the federal highway expansion under Gillard/Rudd is still going; WestConnex in Sydney is going ahead and a few minor tram lines. Not many projects that grabs the headline and inspire the heck out of the people that's for sure. Well there's the submarines but we're told our builders aren't up to scratch.

There should be a lot more investment and activities. Hope it's all because I haven't been paying enough attention. All I seem to see in the headlines are rejigging the tax codes and calling up a few corporations to ask them why they pay so little tax and then bring them lunch for their trouble.


----------



## Tom32 (21 January 2016)

luutzu said:


> Hope the boom will come back... but man. Keynesian policy would tell the gov't to invest freely during recessions. I have not heard or seen much at all past few years.
> 
> The NBN was promising, then Abbott came along and now Turnbull and I think Murdoch and Telstra won the day with NBN.
> 
> Maybe the federal highway expansion under Gillard/Rudd is still going; WestConnex in Sydney is going ahead and a few minor tram lines. Not many projects that grabs the headline and inspire the heck out of the people that's for sure. Well there's the submarines but we're told our builders aren't up to scratch.




yes the gov in an ideal world smoothed out both the peaks by saving and the troughs by spending.

Nowadays in the peaks we say let the markets determine economic activity and in the troughs we have nothing to spend. 

I Like your sentiment about infrastructure. I do think the right project can bring a city out of economic doldrums. A real nation building project is what we need. For selfish (among other) reasons I would be happy if 10pc of mine and everyone's super (if forced to  ) was put into it.

Imagine 200bn of dams ports roads rail water power and heck even cultural infrastructure around the country. Who doesn't want another opera house?


----------



## basilio (21 January 2016)

If we wanted to create new* valuable *infrastructure to keep the economy going and people employed you couldn't go past fast tracking renewable energy projects across teh country.

Second option would be new generation electric transport , cars, trucks, tractors. Either new or retro fitted where that made sense

Then start looking at how to protect cities that are coming under pressure from rising sea levels, repeat flooding ect.

Or of course we could just pump a few more billion into the investment banks to create another round of share (paper) based profits. Just like the last 8 years


----------



## Junior (21 January 2016)

Ultra fast rail Melbourne>Canberra>Sydney>Brisbane would bring massive long-term benefits in my opinion.

Places on the rail route such as Albury-Wodonga could be transformed into new cities.  This would take the strain of population and jobs growth off our capital cities as other rural centres become within easy commute of Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney.  It would reduce pressure on airports with Melb>Syd being one of the busiest flight paths on the planet.  Also a boost to tourism.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 January 2016)

basilio said:


> If we wanted to create new* valuable *infrastructure to keep the economy going and people employed you couldn't go past fast tracking renewable energy projects across teh country.




With our current rate of debt and deficit, where's the money coming from ?

Hey, I've got an idea. Tax polluting fossil fuelled big business and subsidise renewable energy !

Na, that'd never work.


----------



## basilio (21 January 2016)

SirRumpole said:


> With our current rate of debt and deficit, where's the money coming from ?
> 
> Hey, I've got an idea. Tax polluting fossil fuelled big business and subsidise renewable energy !
> 
> Na, that'd never work.




Glad you put in the eye roll Rumpy.  Would have been hard to see the sarcasm.. not.

In fact all we would have to do was remove the subsidies to fossil fuels and the market place would jump into action. The figures are compelling.


----------



## Tisme (21 January 2016)

basilio said:


> If we wanted to create new* valuable *infrastructure to keep the economy going and people employed you couldn't go past fast tracking renewable energy projects across teh country.
> 
> Second option would be new generation electric transport , cars, trucks, tractors. Either new or retro fitted where that made sense
> 
> ...




Some would say that increasing gross capital formation as the rate of GDP growth declines might just be a problem in the making, especially when consumer spending drops off.


----------



## luutzu (21 January 2016)

Tom32 said:


> yes the gov in an ideal world smoothed out both the peaks by saving and the troughs by spending.
> 
> Nowadays in the peaks we say let the markets determine economic activity and in the troughs we have nothing to spend.
> 
> ...




I guess the thinking around Canberra and Sydney is if there's too many great stuff, we wouldn't treasure it as much 

Was on a stopover in Shanghai and a colleague was saying how there's like 8 bridges as big or bigger than Sydney's Harbour in the city and they don't think much of it. We on the other hand...

But yes, we need a few major project to wrap a few flags around. Inspire the next generation of engineers, scientists, dreamers/dol-pludgers 


Keep imagining I guess. 

When I was in HS and our English teacher organised a trip to watch Death of a Salesman at the Sydney, fricking , Opera House... more than a few of us were excited at the idea of seeing being inside a landmark.

We turned up and the show's in some small basement with a few actors and a few chairs on a grey empty stage.

Not impressed. I could watch Dustin Hoffman and John Malchovich on VHS at home for $1 dude.


----------



## luutzu (21 January 2016)

basilio said:


> If we wanted to create new* valuable *infrastructure to keep the economy going and people employed you couldn't go past fast tracking renewable energy projects across teh country.
> 
> Second option would be new generation electric transport , cars, trucks, tractors. Either new or retro fitted where that made sense
> 
> ...




Too farsighted Basillo. Our leaders tend not to think of rainy days, and on sunny days they don't make hay either but head to the beaches.

Cheap oil will mean Tesla and alternatives to fossil won't be doing too good for a while. 
Hear GM in the US is doing great with new sales. Forget about fuel efficiency too.

Read that the Vline in Victoria is cancelled and replaced with buses now.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 January 2016)

luutzu said:


> Was on a stopover in Shanghai and a colleague was saying how there's like 8 bridges as big or bigger than Sydney's Harbour in the city and they don't think much of it. We on the other hand...
> 
> But yes, we need a few major project to wrap a few flags around. Inspire the next generation of engineers, scientists, dreamers/dol-pludgers




Instead of BIG infrastructure maybe we should consider developing our own computer/moblile tablet industry to suit local conditions.

There are many people in the older age ranges who would benefit from mobile devices but are afraid of the technology. Filling a market niche by making a product that they can easily use could be a world beater. 

We have an aging society, and a lot of them are routinely ignored by marketeers in all industries, except for funeral homes.


----------



## Tom32 (22 January 2016)

SirRumpole said:


> Instead of BIG infrastructure maybe we should consider developing our own computer/moblile tablet industry to suit local conditions.
> 
> There are many people in the older age ranges who would benefit from mobile devices but are afraid of the technology. Filling a market niche by making a product that they can easily use could be a world beater.
> 
> We have an aging society, and a lot of them are routinely ignored by marketeers in all industries, except for funeral homes.




I don't think peeps appreciated broadband because it is hard to see the tangible benefit to it. You have to connected to computer science in my view otherwise your Telstra 500gb pm adsl connection seems way more than adequate.

Creating fertile land from arid land for example is easy to explain. It isn't cheap storing water and moving it but if we tell people a new food bowl will be created from average land (aka snowy river scheme) people know this must mean more jobs and more exports. 

I guess I have my own vested interests to push but I was pretty dark with labours ideas for nation building in gfc in that none were inspirational to me. Don't expect inspirational nation building from the Libs anyway so no surprises there.


----------



## explod (22 January 2016)

Tom32 said:


> I don't think peeps appreciated broadband because it is hard to see the tangible benefit to it. You have to connected to computer science in my view otherwise your Telstra 500gb pm adsl connection seems way more than adequate.
> 
> Creating fertile land from arid land for example is easy to explain. It isn't cheap storing water and moving it but if we tell people a new food bowl will be created from average land (aka snowy river scheme) people know this must mean more jobs and more exports.
> 
> I guess I have my own vested interests to push but I was pretty dark with labours ideas for nation building in gfc in that none were inspirational to me. Don't expect inspirational nation building from the Libs anyway so no surprises there.




You have hit the nail on the head,  its going to be food.  

This mornings local paper saying growing water shortage west of Melbourne impacting 50% of our main fresh vegitables,  collie flower,  broccoli etc.,


----------



## luutzu (23 January 2016)

Some insight from Chomsky on how to ruin the world: Do exactly what the Western world has been doing since the GFC.

Idle hands eager for work; much work is needed to be done; money is available to have it done but is given away and concentrated at the very top and in the big banks so nothing is getting done (besides stock buybacks, bonuses and financial speculations).


----------



## luutzu (23 January 2016)

Tom32 said:


> I don't think peeps appreciated broadband because it is hard to see the tangible benefit to it. You have to connected to computer science in my view otherwise your Telstra 500gb pm adsl connection seems way more than adequate.
> 
> Creating fertile land from arid land for example is easy to explain. It isn't cheap storing water and moving it but if we tell people a new food bowl will be created from average land (aka snowy river scheme) people know this must mean more jobs and more exports.
> 
> I guess I have my own vested interests to push but I was pretty dark with labours ideas for nation building in gfc in that none were inspirational to me. Don't expect inspirational nation building from the Libs anyway so no surprises there.




When Turnbull took over, first press conference was all about optimism and how there's never been a better time to be an Australian... Kind of hollow singing such praises and having nothing to back it up with.


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2016)

The world is catching on to this confluence of geopolitical and social upheaval. We had MAD as a security blanket to rely on for no WWIII which I think still holds true for the prospect of 'total war', but this is adding up to long, long term proxy war. Let's hope the nukes stay in the armory.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...t/news-story/708f76752b9ca0631b8598e7773a6cf8


----------



## luutzu (16 February 2016)

kennas said:


> The world is catching on to this confluence of geopolitical and social upheaval. We had MAD as a security blanket to rely on for no WWIII which I think still holds true for the prospect of 'total war', but this is adding up to long, long term proxy war. Let's hope the nukes stay in the armory.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...t/news-story/708f76752b9ca0631b8598e7773a6cf8




With the arsenals that's out there, all that stands between a Nuclear Winter is a rouge general with access to the red button.

Saw it in Stanley Kubrick's Dr Strangelove.   Where Jack Ripper thought to shut his base, send a wing of B-52s into Russia and then inform the president he better get ready to follow through with all they got else the Soviets will retaliate and America is all doomed.

In case we think it's just a movie... Have heard that in real life there's at least 4 instances of the world about to go to heck due to wrong/malfunction signals or intentional provocation where, thank all gods, there happen to be a clearer head at the moment to stop it going nuclear.


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2016)

The next WW might have already started with the proxy war going on in the Middle East between the West and Russia but it's so complicated with Islamic State that it could go anywhere. 

Now China and Russia are doing joint exercises while the US, Japan, Sth Korea and allies are training together around the East and South China Sea...

Then, Russia might just tip everyone over the edge with their encroachments into old Russian Empire territory in the Baltics. Already pushed the boundaries in the Ukraine and got away with it, just. If the US had a more Hawkish leadership at the time, who knows. 

What's next:

http://www.news.com.au/world/europe...t/news-story/aabc3af37bc0630d1636ac5a0435ac6a


----------



## moXJO (23 November 2016)

kennas said:


> Then, Russia might just tip everyone over the edge with their encroachments into old Russian Empire territory in the Baltics. Already pushed the boundaries in the Ukraine and got away with it, just. If the US had a more Hawkish leadership at the time, who knows.
> 
> What's next:
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/world/europe...t/news-story/aabc3af37bc0630d1636ac5a0435ac6a




Trump leadership might nullify Russia/US tensions (although he is back flipping on promises)

US / China will be the one to watch. If US puts tariffs on trade with china, it may start the slide. Asia is probably more volatile then we would like to admit.


----------



## moXJO (23 November 2016)

luutzu said:


> With the arsenals that's out there, all that stands between a Nuclear Winter is a rouge general with access to the red button.
> 
> Saw it in Stanley Kubrick's Dr Strangelove.   Where Jack Ripper thought to shut his base, send a wing of B-52s into Russia and then inform the president he better get ready to follow through with all they got else the Soviets will retaliate and America is all doomed.
> 
> In case we think it's just a movie... Have heard that in real life there's at least 4 instances of the world about to go to heck due to wrong/malfunction signals or intentional provocation where, thank all gods, there happen to be a clearer head at the moment to stop it going nuclear.



I drank with a lot of US generals and high rankings back in the 90's. Talk about some war thirsty attitudes. Everyone had an interesting story though


----------



## SirRumpole (23 November 2016)

moXJO said:


> I drank with a lot of US generals and high rankings back in the 90's. Talk about some war thirsty attitudes. Everyone had an interesting story though




War is fine if you're not on the front line.


----------



## Tisme (23 November 2016)

moXJO said:


> I drank with a lot of US generals and high rankings back in the 90's. Talk about some war thirsty attitudes. Everyone had an interesting story though




The most disturbing I had whispered in my ear was by a Jewish fella who insisted his mates in Israel had an itchy finger on the button during the second gulf war. No telling how close that came.


----------



## luutzu (23 November 2016)

Tisme said:


> The most disturbing I had whispered in my ear was by a Jewish fella who insisted his mates in Israel had an itchy finger on the button during the second gulf war. No telling how close that came.




Don't they have itchy fingers all day, everyday?

They took out a few Iranian nuclear scientists; then took out Iran's IT system... all the egg an Iranian response so that the US would go in, take out the Mullahs and keep the entire region "peaceful" for itchy fingers and lawn mowing.


----------



## luutzu (23 November 2016)

SirRumpole said:


> War is fine if you're not on the front line.




Yea, they're much braver sitting in bunkers and willing to sacrifice other people and their kids.


----------



## luutzu (23 November 2016)

moXJO said:


> I drank with a lot of US generals and high rankings back in the 90's. Talk about some war thirsty attitudes. Everyone had an interesting story though




Servants get to drink at the adult table? 

Saw a John Pilger doco where he said US high rankers consider Australian their... what's the word for Indian coolies. Is that true?

You know how we like to believe we're their "partner", we're not really are we?


----------



## Knobby22 (23 November 2016)

The word is Satrap. A lot of the Roman Satraps didn't fair too well.


----------



## macca (23 November 2016)

In WW11 we were UKs a**wipes, it was only that an Aussie general ordered troops home and then to PNG that we were not invaded.

The UK could not have cared less about us colonials, which is why we should be a republic IMO

I imagine the USA would only help us if it suited them to fight the war on our soil rather than theirs. They would send over some hardware though, they have plenty to spare and would love to test it in real conditions on real people so it could report back.

They have lots of drones that need further testing 

In spite of all this, I do think we need Allies and the USA is probably the best fit to our beliefs and lifestyle.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 November 2016)

macca said:


> In spite of all this, I do think we need Allies and the USA is probably the best fit to our beliefs and lifestyle.




Either that or develop our own nuclear deterrent so we don't have to worry about people like Trump. If Israel can do it I don't see why we can't. I think Japan will probably do it as well so maybe we can form a strategic alliance with them.


----------



## moXJO (24 November 2016)

luutzu said:


> Servants get to drink at the adult table?
> 
> Saw a John Pilger doco where he said US high rankers consider Australian their... what's the word for Indian coolies. Is that true?
> 
> You know how we like to believe we're their "partner", we're not really are we?



They love us, but- yeah we are viewed as the token effort. We would joke that our navy consisted of a tugboat with 3 guys standing on deck hurling bad language at the enemy.
Their military would defend us all day everyday. The politicians would leave us to rot


----------



## luutzu (24 November 2016)

moXJO said:


> They love us, but- yeah we are viewed as the token effort. We would joke that our navy consisted of a tugboat with 3 guys standing on deck hurling bad language at the enemy.
> Their military would defend us all day everyday. The politicians would leave us to rot




More love than Mother Britannia during WW2 then?

I like Paul Keating's view than Howard's on the relationship. Any alliance is a good thing, but too much reliance on that great protector and we'd be screwed the moment they're busy elsewhere. We might be up a creek on that canoe with no paddle.


----------



## luutzu (24 November 2016)

SirRumpole said:


> Either that or develop our own nuclear deterrent so we don't have to worry about people like Trump. If Israel can do it I don't see why we can't. I think Japan will probably do it as well so maybe we can form a strategic alliance with them.




Why not ey. We already got the nuclear test sites the Brits used in the 60s or whenever it was.

Japan is pretty much a colony of the US. Same with S.Korea and Australia. 

Sure it's call a partnership and an alliance, but the way it's structured... well we're the luckier kind of colonies but one nonetheless.

Japan, so I heard, has been trying to repeal American influence and control. The PM that goes too far astray tend to get replace real smart... but efforts are being made by the Japs though. An example seems to be its push to nationalised those few rocks on the East China Sea. That give it excuse to ramp up its military. Though that could be with the approval of the US ally but yea, could go either way depends how to coin land.

Be hard for Japan to do much without invading some place... its fuel supplies, and practically most of its supplies, are at the mercy of those who control the high seas. That was part of the US grand strategy after WW2 - that Japan must not be the technological and economic hub of Asia - else it would mean Japan have practically won its war objectives anyway, and we can't have that.


----------



## luutzu (24 November 2016)

Knobby22 said:


> The word is Satrap. A lot of the Roman Satraps didn't fair too well.




I was thinking of another word, but Satrap is much better.


----------



## explod (1 December 2016)

Things turning nasty:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-worst-ever-meltdown-as-bull-market-shows-age



> Global Bonds Suffer Worst Monthly Meltdown as $1.7 Trillion Lost
> Garfield Clinton Reynolds  and Wes Goodman
> November 30, 2016 — 10:16 PM EST
> The 30-year-old bull market in bonds looks to be ending with a bang.




And back home, housing approvals down 24% the last 12 months.  Combine that with growing unemployment from manufacturing and mining then the loss of jobs coming in the building industry will spell big issues for all of us.

Ha haaaarr, but we have Turnbull's "jobs and Growth x 100" and allowing tax breaks to the wealthy, so where's the problem Ralf


----------



## explod (6 December 2016)

"where there's smoke there's fire"   I have little doubt in spite of the source that there is a lot of truth here:



> Make No Mistake: Russia Remains The Only Target Country Of NATO's Nuclear Weapons
> 
> Tyler Durden's picture
> by Tyler Durden
> ...




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ins-only-target-country-natos-nuclear-weapons


----------



## luutzu (7 December 2016)

explod said:


> "where there's smoke there's fire"   I have little doubt in spite of the source that there is a lot of truth here:
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ins-only-target-country-natos-nuclear-weapons




Why are these psychos playing with our world like that?

NATO has been war gaming in Poland or just West of the Ukraine earlier this year. The war in the Ukraine is still going on right? Just we haven't heard, like Yemen.

If you're Russia, what would you do. Just let a superpower and its allies move right next door? You'd want some buffer room; want some extra few minutes of warning... you would never allow your potential worst enemy to practise and gear up right next door. I mean, Stalin permit that in WW2 and look what Hitler did.


You probably heard that Trump's call to Taiwan wasn't accidental. It was planned and thought about for a couple weeks.

So there's a bunch of wars in the ME. Libya is still being blown the bits. Egypt is now cool since the US put a more understanding guy in charge. Somalia just got underway... there's planning for war in Eastern Europe for "defence" against Russian aggression

... and the president-elect thought to start screwing around with China while all these are happening. 

Divde to conquer does not mean divide the world into different fronts and take on all of it at once, right?


----------



## noco (7 December 2016)

explod said:


> Things turning nasty:
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-worst-ever-meltdown-as-bull-market-shows-age
> 
> ...




Like the workers friends the Green/Labor left socialists coalition killing of jobs at Hazalwood and  business leaving South Australia due to lack of continuity of power.

The good old working  friends in the unions have slowing killed our manufacturing over the past 60 years.....Made it too expensive  to make anything here so the good old unions forced the manufacturing jobs off shore.....So don't complain about the loss of jobs.

The mining industry is governed by commodity prices and would you believe the price of coal is rising which means more jobs...Now ain't that good news?

Is it any wonder building approvals are down when the CFMEU helped to add 30% more cost to build.....The good old unions, the friends of the workers, have made housing affordable.

There is the problem my friend.


----------



## luutzu (10 December 2016)

It is as scary as hell.

Available on ITV or torrent.


----------



## Tisme (10 December 2016)

Pundits are predicting we won't see Xmas:


http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/planetx


----------



## luutzu (11 December 2016)

Tisme said:


> Pundits are predicting we won't see Xmas:
> 
> 
> http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/planetx




It's "Holidays". Will accept "Season's Greetings".


----------



## luutzu (11 December 2016)

luutzu said:


> It is as scary as hell.
> 
> Available on ITV or torrent.





There was a segment in the doco where, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, China was one click away from having some five of its cities wiped off the map from Okinawa.

Apparently, some rogue commander on Okinawa ordered the six nuclear tipped missile - one was directed at Russia - be hot and ready. He was going to have it launched but some duty officer override the command by ordering two of his own troops to blow anyone who touches the button. Then senior command got hold of it and arrest the rogue.

And I thought Dr. Strangelove was some Hollywood fiction. 


Then there's the treatment and experiments on the Marshall Islanders. Guinea pigs for nuclear weapons. What crazy fark would do that to people. It's Nazi concentration camp experiment shiet. 

Honestly, no wonder the US people are screwed.


----------



## nioka (11 December 2016)

noco said:


> Like the workers friends the Green/Labor left socialists coalition killing of jobs at Hazalwood and  business leaving South Australia due to lack of continuity of power.
> 
> The good old working  friends in the unions have slowing killed our manufacturing over the past 60 years.....Made it too expensive  to make anything here so the good old unions forced the manufacturing jobs off shore.....So don't complain about the loss of jobs.
> 
> ...




 "Is it any wonder building approvals are down when the CFMEU helped to add 30% more cost to build.....The good old unions, the friends of the workers, have made housing affordable."

And another 30% has been added by bureaucracy with red tape, council charges, contributions and regulations.


----------



## Tisme (11 December 2016)

nioka said:


> "Is it any wonder building approvals are down when the CFMEU helped to add 30% more cost to build.....The good old unions, the friends of the workers, have made housing affordable."
> 
> And another 30% has been added by bureaucracy with red tape, council charges, contributions and regulations.





Yes that's correct. While labor input cost as reduced in real terms over the past decades, the amount of overhead has increased. e.g:

Allowance for affordable housing;
Road infrastructure is only partially subsidised whereas it used to the council or main roads activity;
Reticulation of water and power is on the developer (used to council or electricity provider);
New technologies readiness, e.g. NBN;
Certifier fees;
Engineering fees;
Increased onerous regulation through the Building Code of Australia (BCA);
More tiers of consultancy and authorsisations;
Greater desire for higher profits by developers;
licencing of trades and prohibition of the jack of all;
etc.

The labour component has actually reduced as a % of the build and mechanisation has enabled that as has better methods and materials of the build.

THe J section of the BCA has put a lot of focus on energy efficiency and that means lots of architectural considerations, aspect orientations, low capacitance materials, high insulation properties,etc.

The modern building has loads of technology ready infrastructure.

Anyone who really wants to know why things cost so much more than when dinosaurs walked the earth,  just have to compare a residential/commercial building of the 70s to their counterparts now to see there are loads more features and build components.


----------



## explod (30 December 2016)

Looks like the US Empire is gasping its last:



> *What The Russian Hacking Report DOESN'T Say*
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Just crap for the sheeple

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-29/what-russian-hacking-report-doesnt-say


----------



## Tisme (31 December 2016)

explod said:


> Just crap for the sheeple




That's what the Russians want you to think.


----------



## explod (31 December 2016)

Tisme said:


> That's what the Russians want you to think.



When people realise its the CIA behind ISIS the game will be up.

Weapons of massive destruction anyone.  When people are in real trouble nowhere to be seen.  But to control oil, gas and arms supplies the US is all over it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 December 2016)

The world is not on the brink comrades. You are all very pessimistic. I remember Joe, Winston and Franklin sitting down at Yalta in 1945 and sorting out Europe. Now those times were scary. Very scary. Once ole Obama is out of the way and Trump and Putin get together it will be all good. Dismantle the UN, contain China and have many of our exports go to the UK and USA and we'll be sweet.


----------



## luutzu (31 December 2016)

Tisme said:


> That's what the Russians want you to think.




I thought Putin was quite clever not kicking US "diplomats" out of Russia in retaliation to US outrage at being spied on.

Show he's not one for political theatre. Guess that's why the Yanks don't like him too much.


----------



## moXJO (1 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> I thought Putin was quite clever not kicking US "diplomats" out of Russia in retaliation to US outrage at being spied on.
> 
> Show he's not one for political theatre. Guess that's why the Yanks don't like him too much.




Made Obama look like an idiot. Glad Obama is going, he rubbed the rest of the world the wrong way with lies and deception. Australia has firmly had it's nose shoved up America's ass for too long.


----------



## prawn_86 (1 January 2017)

moXJO said:


> Made Obama look like an idiot. Glad Obama is going, he rubbed the rest of the world the wrong way with lies and deception. Australia has firmly had it's nose shoved up America's ass for too long.




Living in America the last three years, Obama has been way better than any alternative. I hate to discuss politics (as they are all useless) but in such a divided nation like the US you need someone calm and collected who is actually trying to do what is best for the country (not himself or lobbyists)


----------



## moXJO (1 January 2017)

prawn_86 said:


> Living in America the last three years, Obama has been way better than any alternative. I hate to discuss politics (as they are all useless) but in such a divided nation like the US you need someone calm and collected who is actually trying to do what is best for the country (not himself or lobbyists)



I agree that there hasn't been an alternative. I think the pc echo chamber that was built by the dems will cause a lot of division in the future. 

 On the world stage he has pushed some very questionable directions.


----------



## prawn_86 (2 January 2017)

moXJO said:


> On the world stage he has pushed some very questionable directions.




I dont know much about foreign policy so cant really comment on it.

But within the US he has tried his hardest to improve the life of average Americans, and constantly been blocked by others who are not willing to even try and work with him


----------



## MrBurns (2 January 2017)

prawn_86 said:


> I dont know much about foreign policy so cant really comment on it.
> 
> But within the US he has tried his hardest to improve the life of average Americans, and constantly been blocked by others who are not willing to even try and work with him




That's been my observation also 
Gun control blocked
Universal health care blocked
A lot of people think Trump will be good I'll believe it when I see it


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 January 2017)

No talk of the NK intercontinental ballistic missile goal near completion? The threat to oust U.S. from Asia? This dude is loose cannon no. 1 in the world.


----------



## Tisme (3 January 2017)

MrBurns said:


> That's been my observation also
> Gun control blocked
> Universal health care blocked
> A lot of people think Trump will be good I'll believe it when I see it




Taking the mature city states like New York out of the equation, American do tend to imitate and take cues from an all powerful consumer and entertainment industries. This is really hard for Australians to understand because we are inherently a cynical bunch. There are some really great things we would do well to copy,  for instance the willingness to have a crack at wealth creation, the genuine capacity to have a conversation amongst themsleves, but there are some really dumb characteristics that would be at home in nonsense hero movies where individual freedom comes at any cost to the rest of the community.


----------



## luutzu (4 January 2017)

Tisme said:


> Taking the mature city states like New York out of the equation, American do tend to imitate and take cues from an all powerful consumer and entertainment industries. This is really hard for Australians to understand because we are inherently a cynical bunch. There are some really great things we would do well to copy,  for instance the willingness to have a crack at wealth creation, the genuine capacity to have a conversation amongst themsleves, but there are some really dumb characteristics that would be at home in nonsense hero movies where individual freedom comes at any cost to the rest of the community.





I don't think Americans are having much freedom at all. They think they do, but not really. And that's how the ruling elite likes it.

That's why the gov't, in the name of freedom and liberty, set out to destroy all kind of social safety nets; where it's dog eat dog; greed is good; every man for himself. 

So while it sounds like it's to advance individual freedom... you're not free if education costs your parents a fortune, healthcare can bankrupt you, and nobody nohow will lift a finger for you if you got no cash. 

Americans are being duped, big time.

Unfortunately it worked so well over there our own captains are emulating the worst aspects of it in their attempt to let freedom reign for those with cash and slavery for those who are too lazy or too far from power and privileged to enjoy all them user-pay where it's obvious, and payers can't get "hand outs" when they most needed it.


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> Unfortunately it worked so well over there our own captains are emulating the worst aspects of it in their attempt to let freedom reign for those with cash and slavery for those who are too lazy or too far from power and privileged to enjoy all them user-pay where it's obvious, and payers can't get "hand outs" when they most needed it.



Capitalism has wealth for those that take advantage of it. The rest of us help make it work. Filing for bankruptcy is a way out if things go wrong and American Presidency is a reward. How many people do you think he hurt along the way? You will never right all the injustices in the world and if there is a financial payoff people will turn a blind eye. It is ALL about money.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> healthcare can bankrupt you,



That can work two ways in Aust. It can be an incentive for people with low self health habits to look after themselves. For those that do care for their health it can be a real annoyance especially when one has payed for example $1500/year insurance (medicare) and still have to fork out on top of that albeit with a percentage reimbursement for some services.


----------



## luutzu (5 January 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> That can work two ways in Aust. It can be an incentive for people with low self health habits to look after themselves. For those that do care for their health it can be a real annoyance especially when one has payed for example $1500/year insurance (medicare) and still have to fork out on top of that albeit with a percentage reimbursement for some services.




Some illness you just can't exercise away man. Some injuries and accidents; old age and other physical frailties... can't prevent it, not even with Olay and that "because you're worth it" concoction.

I'm not sure why anyone would rather pay the insurance companies "health insurance", then claim tax on it, but then don't like paying the same amount to a public system. It's not thought through properly.

Say you pay $1500 in premium.. .and you don't use most of it each year. That premium goes directly into insurer's pocket. But the same premium you pay through Medicare will at least help some other Australian in need of it.

But there's that rebate or whatever... But if you're a taxpayer, isn't that just taking money out of your own pocket?

But it's other people's money out of their own pocket... yea true. So it's everyman for himself and while it's good for you now, there might be a time in some distant future where you're broke, got a few kids that's ill, family members in need of some treatment... can't afford health insurance and Medicare is a distant memory. Then what? Exercise?

Some things are better if they're socialised. And that's not because it's some ideology bs... we live in a society, where we can we ought to socialise a few things, take care of a few other people.


----------



## luutzu (5 January 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Capitalism has wealth for those that take advantage of it. The rest of us help make it work. Filing for bankruptcy is a way out if things go wrong and American Presidency is a reward. How many people do you think he hurt along the way? You will never right all the injustices in the world and if there is a financial payoff people will turn a blind eye. It is ALL about money.




Seem that Trump's past 70 years of screwing people over was just his beginning. His cabinet picks so far have an estimated wealth of $US17B.. Once these guys are sworn in, that's about $2B in potential tax revenue he just lost for the country. Then the looting will really start.

Don't think the kind of capitalism out there at the moment are that idealised entrepreneurial, risk taking, innovating, garage start up kind of stuff. They're just risk miminised, corporate welfare bailout kind of business where the captain of industry get to keep all the profits they make, but taxpayers will pick up the tab if something goes wrong.

It's almost like those guys wrote the rules themselves and have some idiot sign it.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> Some things are better if they're socialised. And that's not because it's some ideology bs... we live in a society, where we can we ought to socialise a few things, take care of a few other people.



Yes I agree but people abuse the free stuff. What about the overpayment of 4 billion dollars to welfare recipients. That 4 billion is probably conservative since the money missing is only what they know of. People rip the system. It's a fact. It's the lucky country mentality where I do the work and you enjoy a good life.


----------



## luutzu (5 January 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes I agree but people abuse the free stuff. What about the overpayment of 4 billion dollars to welfare recipients. That 4 billion is probably conservative since the money missing is only what they know of. People rip the system. It's a fact. It's the lucky country mentality where I do the work and you enjoy a good life.




It's not free. It's paying now with expectation to use it for "free" later when it's needed. Or use it for "free" now but pay later when we earn income.

Just like when we were young and have no kids but our tax dollars fund somebody else's kids education. Then when we have kids but theirs are grown, etc. etc.

If the gov't does stupid things like playing with, threatening, or are breaking that social contract... then nobody would want to pay tax. Not that people want to pay tax anyway, but if gov't keep demanding taxes but start removing social services... there's only so long they can do that kind of crap before the plebs start to realised that it's time for a change.

If those $4B are known to be overpaid, trust me, it will be reclaimed. 

It's a bit unreal to here gov't acting like they're weak innocent victims being taken advantage of by the nasty welfare bloody suckers.

What can't be reclaimed are those oil and ores being shipped off for dirt cheap, with profits stored offshore and our Gina telling us we ought to cut more taxes for her kind of business so they'd then have more to trickle down to us.


----------



## OmegaTrader (5 January 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes I agree but people abuse the free stuff. What about the overpayment of 4 billion dollars to welfare recipients. That 4 billion is probably conservative since the money missing is only what they know of. People rip the system. It's a fact. It's the lucky country mentality where I do the work and you enjoy a good life.





All people are corrupt.
It is human nature.

Is has been the same of human history.
Only the shades change

Pensioners with $$$$+ exempt houses
Multinationals avoiding taxes
Taxes supporting bailouts
CEO's,Lawyers and Doctors pay packets
People doing cash jobs


One just chooses the level they are comfortable with.


----------



## luutzu (6 January 2017)

OmegaTrader said:


> All people are corrupt.
> It is human nature.
> 
> Is has been the same of human history.
> ...





People are self-interested, not really corrupt.

Way I defined it, corruption are self-interested behaviour done when you are entrusted with responsibilities other than your self-interests. Hence, politicians being public servants, being leaders of the state and head of the country... they ought to abandon their self-interests and use that office to advance the interests of the nation, not their own. To do otherwise is corruption, legal or otherwise.

Or take CEOs... their job description is to advance shareholders interests. If they start to play nice and go all sweet on hippies and the community at the expense of shareholders, they're corrupt. Hence, capitalism where you pass costs on to others and take the bottom line as the last measure is awesome.

Now... this is why it's being driven into the dumb plebs of Western democracies that all these nice socialism stuff are all bad for them. Welfare is bad because they're only for druggies and Muslims and poor people; who not only use it to live in luxury but cheats it. So why welfare? Get that old granny back to work and that kid idling around to do a few jobs since one ain't going to pay his way to a mortgage.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> People are self-interested, not really corrupt.
> 
> Way I defined it, corruption are self-interested behaviour done when you are entrusted with responsibilities *other than your self-interests*.



Communication would be confusing with out definitions and I do get your point but money is at the core. Be that the dole bludging welfare cheat or a billion dollar Funds Manager



> corrupt
> kəˈrʌpt/
> _adjective_
> 
> ...


----------



## OmegaTrader (6 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> People are self-interested, not really corrupt.
> 
> Way I defined it, corruption are self-interested behaviour done when you are entrusted with responsibilities other than your self-interests. Hence, politicians being public servants, being leaders of the state and head of the country... they ought to abandon their self-interests and use that office to advance the interests of the nation, not their own. To do otherwise is corruption, legal or otherwise.
> 
> ...





Wysiwyg said:


> Communication would be confusing with out definitions and I do get your point but money is at the core. Be that the dole bludging welfare cheat or a billion dollar Funds Manager





A rose by any other name will still smell as sweetly.

Corrupt, self interest, gaming the system, surplus.

It just describes people gaming the system for their own game at the expense of the honest people, who just go about their own business.

Not thinking about loopholes or how to get as much money as they can from the government or the organisation they represent. At the expense of others.

It reminds me of a study on monkeys bodies where the alpha male was healthy and had a strong bone structure and the monkeys lower down the chain had more brittle bones and unhealthy organs.

We are still the same but getting there, hopefully the tide of progress continues to raise all boats, even at different rates.

You just have the accept that people are corrupt and do the best you can.


----------



## luutzu (6 January 2017)

OmegaTrader said:


> A rose by any other name will still smell as sweetly.
> 
> Corrupt, self interest, gaming the system, surplus.
> 
> ...





Not really.

Self-interested people can be convinced to do what is good for both themselves and others; corrupt people do things that enriches themselves alone, leaving the costs for someone else to pick up.

Say we're not psychotic but are self-interested... As long as we're not being screwed over, other people being helped or living in health and safety... that's all good. We might even find it to our own personal benefit that the kids across the streets are educated, have a good future ahead, are not sick and be looked after... all because if that bastard were not in school, he might be out there pushing drugs and breaking into houses like ours. So we're willing to have some of our tax dollars helping the other guy out.

If we're psychotic, i.e. corrupt... we not only want everything, but even if there are things we don't really want or need... we still want it anyway and do not want other "less deserving" parasites to have it. Why? Does it do us any harm? Does more tax and welfare cheques into our corporations make any difference to our lifestyle and millions already at the bank? Nope... so why do we care that people have some welfare, widows and orphans not having a trust fund ought to get off their behinds and head to the coal mine. 

People who does that for kicks aren't normal.


----------



## OmegaTrader (6 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> Not really.
> 
> Self-interested people can be convinced to do what is good for both themselves and others; corrupt people do things that enriches themselves alone, leaving the costs for someone else to pick up.
> 
> ...






> Does more tax and welfare cheques into our corporations make any difference to our lifestyle and millions already at the bank?




I don't have millions in the bank. If you don't care about your millions then give me some money.


Yes  High personal income tax burdens

Yes  Deficit levies, if we keep going on or economic flow on effects

yes opportunity cost of the funds being used in beneficial activities

yes Wasteful bureaucracy pushing paper around, instead of meaningful production 

Every person is not immune from the greed at some point.



> so why do we care that people have some welfare,




It is not some people, it is major wroughting of people who do not need it.

Have you seen Australia's expenditure on welfare??


----------



## luutzu (6 January 2017)

OmegaTrader said:


> I don't have millions in the bank. If you don't care about your millions then give me some money.
> 
> 
> Yes  High personal income tax burdens
> ...





Welfare for corporations or for the Sheiks around Bankstown and Lakemba?

As I've said over the years, if the country does not spend its taxpayers cache on welfare for the people, then what is it supposed to spent it on?

So I don't really mind corporate welfare either - corporations are people too. Just make sure that those welfare cheques pays a dividend. i.e. if the likes of BHPs were to get concessions, maybe it's only fair that they bloody pay a fair share of the earnings they mined. Not have loopholes where they make less profit (hence less tax) by selling it to their subsidiary (in another low taxed foreign country) which then jacked the profit up on the same cheap stuff as it transit to China and other suckers.

If you think about it, we're being fed bs so that we'll want things that will eventually screw us. Unless we're heir to some great fortune, or just big enough that we'll never ever need to worry about money... the idea that we're to pay our taxes but expect nothing in return... how did we ever really buy into that kind of rubbish?

Oh yea, the gov't cut our taxes by a pip, then they take it back again through privatisation of all public monopolies. Take it back when our kids, our relatives kids and ourselves needing to pay for everything luxurious like healthcare and proper education and training.

That and of course whistling that all these welfare are for the lazy, coloured, cheats... That it's for everyone else but "us" - the good guys who don't want anything from the gov't.

It's like some jackass were to tell us, after we've paid them our money, that ey... they can't really provide us anything in return because come on... Muslims are taking over man. But here's two bucks in return. Come again next year.


----------



## SirRumpole (6 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> As I've said over the years, if the country does not spend its taxpayers cache on welfare for the people, then what is it supposed to spent it on?




If there are more job seekers than jobs then people need welfare as long as they are willing to accept and keep a job when it's offered.

We don't need to offer middle class welfare like negative gearing, family tax benefits and superannuation concessions to people who don't need it.

I'm with you a bit on corporate welfare if it's to help our industry compete on a level playing field ie to offset subsidies that other countries give to their farmers/industries etc. 

There is good and bad welfare . Unfortunately we are letting too many people into the country who will inevitably end up on welfare.


----------



## luutzu (6 January 2017)

SirRumpole said:


> If there are more job seekers than jobs then people need welfare as long as they are willing to accept and keep a job when it's offered.
> 
> We don't need to offer middle class welfare like negative gearing, family tax benefits and superannuation concessions to people who don't need it.
> 
> ...




There's a lot more to job vacancies than with comparing them to the numbers of unemployed. There's location - we can't all afford to pick up and go work at some part time casual jobs out in the country, then move elsewhere later. There's skillset and training - something we're working hard to gutting the funding for. There's the "experience". 

I can definitely guarantee you that Australia will not let in any migrant who even have a chance of being a bum. There are exceptions, but those would be family/marriage, refugee and other humanitarian grounds. No one gets to enter Australia just to live off of its welfare.

As to refugees being on the dole for life... the statistics just don't show that at all. For the first few years, for sure. A decade or two later and most would be opening some sort of small business or trade.. .then there's their kids. No kids from refugee background get to lounge around... that just does not happen. Their parents will be the first to kick their hinnies if they were to even think about not relaxing a little, taking it easy and enjoy the dole.


----------



## OmegaTrader (6 January 2017)

luutzu said:


> Welfare for corporations or for the Sheiks around Bankstown and Lakemba?
> 
> As I've said over the years, if the country does not spend its taxpayers cache on welfare for the people, then what is it supposed to spent it on?
> 
> ...




Take it easy mate 

Your gonna have a heart attack :s

I do not endorse your views of racism.

I think I have said enough.

Do not want to fuel the fire.


----------



## luutzu (7 January 2017)

OmegaTrader said:


> Take it easy mate
> 
> Your gonna have a heart attack :s
> 
> ...




Not to be a nazi about it, but I don't have any view of racism to endorse. People can mistake that to mean you think I'm a racist... which would be wrong because I don't trust nor like anyone of any race, all equally  

Heard a piece of wisdom from this comedian with a show on YouTube... that each time you find yourself punching down on people lower on the ladder than you, you're being tricked by some prick higher up than you. And who probably held the same view towards you as you do towards those below you [I added the last bit]


----------



## SirRumpole (14 July 2017)

A pretty pessimistic view of world affairs from a former defence chief.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-14/sleepwalking-to-world-war-three-stan-grant/8710390


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## MrBurns (14 July 2017)

Yes Rumpy it's all there for all to see but it's like watching grass grow, it will happen just like the bursting of asset bubbles when we least expect it but I don't think we'll have to wait more than 12 months


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2017)

The most likely origin of WW3 will be when North Korea establishes a ICBM capability with a nuke. The US (and partners) respond. This will happen around Jul, 2018. Then, everyone takes sides. We're on the winning side at the moment.


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## SirRumpole (29 July 2017)

kennas said:


> The most likely origin of WW3 will be when North Korea establishes a ICBM capability with a nuke. The US (and partners) respond. This will happen around Jul, 2018. Then, everyone takes sides. We're on the winning side at the moment.




Maybe someone as flaky as Trump might decide to wipe China out while the US still has a military superiority over them.


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## Wysiwyg (29 July 2017)

Yes that decision point is getting closer. Obviously China has zero influence over the kim jong regime as NK proves with continued testing. Japan, South Korea, U.S. are so restrained. Pre-emptive is not an option with millions of civilians so near the war zone.


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## SirRumpole (29 July 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes that decision point is getting closer. Obviously China has zero influence over the kim jong regime as NK proves with continued testing. Japan, South Korea, U.S. are so restrained. Pre-emptive is not an option with millions of civilians so near the war zone.




China actually wants NK to scare the shite out of the US. It keeps the US resources tied up and out of the South China Sea. I think China is sitting back laughing at the west getting their knickers in a knot over NK.


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## luutzu (30 July 2017)

SirRumpole said:


> Maybe someone as flaky as Trump might decide to wipe China out while the US still has a military superiority over them.




Some US brass recently answered a hypothetical about nuking China if Trump so ordered. 

Now that is scary in more ways than one.


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## luutzu (30 July 2017)

SirRumpole said:


> China actually wants NK to scare the shite out of the US. It keeps the US resources tied up and out of the South China Sea. I think China is sitting back laughing at the west getting their knickers in a knot over NK.




The West know though. They just want to use NK, too, as an excuse for all that THADD and new military bases and weapons to point at Beijing and all its coasts.


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## CanOz (30 July 2017)

luutzu said:


> The West know though. They just want to use NK, too, as an excuse for all that THADD and new military bases and weapons to point at Beijing and all its coasts.




Rubbish, thhad is being requested...you cannot "point" thaad at Beijing.


----------



## Tisme (30 July 2017)

luutzu said:


> The West know though, as does Tisme...has anyone asked Tisme, coz he knows for sure.




Of course you are correct right there and thankyou for the opportunity to speak luutzu. You see it goes like this : there were once a short hairy legged white European bogan people with relatively huge brains, but lacking self control called Neanderthals (pronounced knee and her talls), who made a big no no by breeding with some black fellas while vacationing in the middle east and viola .... modern man was made. Ever since then the European blokes and the Asian dudes have been wrestling with the worm inside their head that forces them to do bogan things like gang warfare escalating into all out national wars and going to Bali without condoms, but drugs instead..... proof that making contact with inbred, primitive foreign countries and giving them a bit of knowledge can result in the undesirable spread of ar5eholes


----------



## qldfrog (30 July 2017)

I think we tend to reject too quickly the idea of a preemptive attack by the us: it is [Trump or not] a very valid option for the US, and we could blame Trump or the Russian after anyway if it causes more casualty than planned
Would not be idiotic as once NK has its nuclear warheads on and can wipre Seattle or Tokyo, it becomes impossible to control..I would not take bets on a that.and am cancelling a potential trip to Seoul..


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 July 2017)

MrBurns said:


> Yes Rumpy it's all there for all to see but it's like watching grass grow, it will happen just like the bursting of asset bubbles when we least expect it but I don't think we'll have to wait more than 12 months




As a clarification, you're saying within 12 months for a war? Or within 12 months for bursting of present asset bubbles? Or both?

My own thought is that there's enough tension rising everywhere that we'll see some sort of major "event" before too much longer. Keep building up the pressure and at some point the boiler does blow up. Details are anyone's guess but the way things are I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by the end of 2018.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 July 2017)

I wonder if NK would be behaving like this if Trump wasn't in power.  It seems to be a very personal thing.  One way to dismantle tensions would be to have Trump ousted.  Play nk with the old 'good cop, bad cop' routine.  But the 'good cop' would have to be legitimately good - you couldn't have someone like Hillary or Obama.  Who could it be?


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## SirRumpole (30 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I wonder if NK would be behaving like this if Trump wasn't in power.  It seems to be a very personal thing.  One way to dismantle tensions would be to have Trump ousted.  Play nk with the old 'good cop, bad cop' routine.  But the 'good cop' would have to be legitimately good - you couldn't have someone like Hillary or Obama.  Who could it be?




Bernie !


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## SirRumpole (30 July 2017)

Tensions are escalating on the Korean Peninsula.



*US flies bombers over North Korea after missile launch; Donald Trump 'disappointed' with China*



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-...sts-see-us-bombers-fly-over-peninsula/8757500


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## MrBurns (30 July 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a clarification, you're saying within 12 months for a war? Or within 12 months for bursting of present asset bubbles? Or both?
> 
> My own thought is that there's enough tension rising everywhere that we'll see some sort of major "event" before too much longer. Keep building up the pressure and at some point the boiler does blow up. Details are anyone's guess but the way things are I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by the end of 2018.




Both I think, but Trump will be removed before war breaks out, I hope so anyway, that nut case in North Korea needs to be brought down but I'm not sure how without outright war. Russia is just standing on the sidelines waiting for Trump to do their dirty work,


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## Tisme (30 July 2017)

http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison.asp


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 July 2017)

What does kim actually want?  Or in other words, what would make him stop?


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## SirRumpole (30 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What does kim actually want?  Or in other words, what would make him stop?




A nuke up his backside.


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What does kim actually want?  Or in other words, what would make him stop?



Another flare up due to Americas presence a long way from home. They are arrogant, they fuel fires and they are conflict seeking. I don't want to be around the day America gets its ass kicked. Lies and propanda to justify Iraq war was enough evidence for me of the American idiots in command.


----------



## MrBurns (30 July 2017)




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## luutzu (30 July 2017)

CanOz said:


> Rubbish, thhad is being requested...you cannot "point" thaad at Beijing.




Pretty sure you can.

THAAD wasn't requested. The US dropped off a couple of systems into South Korea without its president knowing. And it's not because he just came to the job that he doesn't know.

He ordered an investigation etc. etc.... I guess he's been informed by his generals that South Korea is a vassal state and you know, invite it in please. 

Saw doco where North Korea was bombed by the US so bad they ran out of targets within a week. Then they started on the dams, flooding all those downstream... Who knows how many North Koreans were starved as a result of the flooding killing the year's harvest. 

That's not to say North Korean gov't is nice and all that. Just dude, they're not the one sanctioning trade against the West. They want trade, make money. And their troops on their border... it's their border, right?

But of course they're crazy and suicidal, as always. Wanting to take over the world when they can hardly feed their own people. It's like an Austin Powers movie... just take over the world, blow stuff up for fun?


----------



## luutzu (30 July 2017)

Tisme said:


> Of course you are correct right there and thankyou for the opportunity to speak luutzu. You see it goes like this : there were once a short hairy legged white European bogan people with relatively huge brains, but lacking self control called Neanderthals (pronounced knee and her talls), who made a big no no by breeding with some black fellas while vacationing in the middle east and viola .... modern man was made. Ever since then the European blokes and the Asian dudes have been wrestling with the worm inside their head that forces them to do bogan things like gang warfare escalating into all out national wars and going to Bali without condoms, but drugs instead..... proof that making contact with inbred, primitive foreign countries and giving them a bit of knowledge can result in the undesirable spread of ar5eholes




Were you calling me names there McGee? I'd be quite unhappy about it if I understood what you wrote.


----------



## luutzu (30 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What does kim actually want?  Or in other words, what would make him stop?




Money. And and maybe off that axis of evil stuff so they can trade. Selling drugs and illegal arms aren't what they're used to.


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## luutzu (30 July 2017)

SirRumpole said:


> Tensions are escalating on the Korean Peninsula.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




A nutjob just threatened to nuke your country so you send bombers over their sky? 

Anyone up top ever thought you don't tease crazy people with nukes like that? They might get seriously nervous and press that button?

You're the United States, there's no need to show your capability like that. Just send them a few YouTube links of a few other places you've been.


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## CanOz (30 July 2017)

Lu, you are an abnoxious little internet troll with no agenda other than to annoy others with your ideological rants and i'm sick of you. Pick a f***ing side mate.


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## luutzu (31 July 2017)

CanOz said:


> Lu, you are an abnoxious little internet troll with no agenda other than to annoy others with your ideological rants and i'm sick of you. Pick a f***ing side mate.




Side of humanity? 

Outside of family, only an idiot would pick sides to defend. Oh... my country, right or wrong. It's not even "our" country the US, is it? Leave that kind of sucking up to politicians shall we.

So one country blowing the crap out of another country, killing countless innocent people. The other side does killings too... but one side is better than the other?

And yea, a little "troll" like me is what annoys you. Way to know your priorities mate.


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## qldfrog (31 July 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Another flare up due to Americas presence a long way from home. They are arrogant, they fuel fires and they are conflict seeking. I don't want to be around the day America gets its ass kicked. Lies and propanda to justify Iraq war was enough evidence for me of the American idiots in command.



no no it is Trump's fault, or the Russians...Bad bad Russians who do not want muslim migrants, or US oil/mining company to bleed them dry;
But I know for sure that in NK we have reached a point when even Trump's way of dealing with issues could actually be the best option;not good at all, maybe the reset the world needs but I would have preferred a different type of reset. a nice revolution to get rid of the west rotten dual parties would be better than a nuked Seoul.ill have to start looking at atmospheric air currents soon


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## Wysiwyg (1 August 2017)

qldfrog said:


> no no it is Trump's fault, or the Russians...Bad bad Russians who do not want muslim migrants, or US oil/mining company to bleed them dry;



The collective ego is massive, like their mouths, their money, their expectations, their military, their vanity, their delusions, their lies. It is gonna require a massive humble pie to feed all those mouths.

I think the Western alliances went wrong when Americas allies were tarred with the same brush for Americas war mongering stupidity. Without question the WW alliances were needed at that time but the expectation to follow them nowadays on their war mongering campaigns ("rotations" into various parts of the world and vengeance operations) as part of an alliance is friggin insane.


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## Wysiwyg (4 August 2017)

Rex Tillerson offering some peaceful words to North Korea. If they are by his choice he could be a real peace deal breaker in the world. Like a breath of fresh air after that Trump flaming garbage.


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## luutzu (11 August 2017)

Interesting interview on Nuclear weapons and the bombing of Japan.


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## crackajack (11 August 2017)

well no war no army lol who gives a rats we need another war, too many people on this planet.


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## crackajack (11 August 2017)

crackajack said:


> well no war no army lol who gives a rats we need another war, too many people on this planet.


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## crackajack (11 August 2017)

crackajack said:


>


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## Smurf1976 (11 August 2017)

Pardon my cynicism but we've had a prolonged bull market in US stocks with the market now at valuations that can only be described as extremely high by any measure. Pick a measure, any measure, and valuations are right up there among the highest on record.

Now we have sabre rattling looking to start a crisis.

The details are anyone's guess but I've seen this plot before. All that's different is who the actors and director are and where they did the filming but it's the same movie as such. Once the economic goose is just about cooked someone starts a war. Seen this one.


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## noirua (11 August 2017)

If America attack North Korea they have to knock everything out at once.  One error and it's goodbye South Korea.
I doubt North Korea will make the same mistake as Saddam Hussain when he doubted President George W Bush.


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## qldfrog (11 August 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> The details are anyone's guess but I've seen this plot before. All that's different is who the actors and director are and where they did the filming but it's the same movie as such. Once the economic goose is just about cooked someone starts a war. Seen this one.



Fully agree, and look at it that way, now everyone can feel good on blaming it on Trump if they (aka army, republicans, democrats) have even a bit of remaining conscience brake, so it is really all steam ahead from here  in my opinion.Market crashing in the us?


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## moXJO (11 August 2017)

North Korea has reached a point where something has to happen. I think everyone in Australia has been to preoccupied with gay marriage to notice.

If war starts it could change everything. China's involvement will ultimately end up as a land grab. I think the markets only just realized that something unpalatable will need to happen now nukes are involved.


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## crackajack (11 August 2017)

moXJO said:


> North Korea has reached a point where something has to happen. I think everyone in Australia has been to preoccupied with gay marriage to notice.
> 
> If war starts it could change everything. China's involvement will ultimately end up as a land grab. I think the markets only just realized that something unpalatable will need to happen now nukes are involved.



who cares all the leaders in this world are jerks


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## moXJO (11 August 2017)

crackajack said:


> who cares all the leaders in this world are jerks



Thats the problem....
Casualties are just numbers.Civilians will be the ones that suffer


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## Wysiwyg (11 August 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> All that's different is who the actors and director are and where they did the filming but it's the same movie as such. Once the economic goose is just about cooked someone starts a war. Seen this one.



The Yanks were onto it and pushed the market higher all previous sabre rattles. Kim Young Gun's short positions got smoked every time.


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## Tisme (11 August 2017)

If these two go to war........

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-idUSKBN1AO1D4


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## SirRumpole (11 August 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Rex Tillerson offering some peaceful words to North Korea. If they are by his choice he could be a real peace deal breaker in the world. Like a breath of fresh air after that Trump flaming garbage.




Sounds like a "good cop , bad cop" duet to me.


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## tech/a (11 August 2017)

China has said they will remain neutral if Korea start firing 
But will back Korea if the yanks shoot first 

This equals stalemate


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## CanOz (11 August 2017)

We are really seconds to midnight...so many serious situations and so many loose canons....


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## Gringotts Bank (11 August 2017)

Guamites would be feeling very unsafe.  

Still possible to de-escalate tensions.  Stop firing missiles and we'll remove our military presence.  That sort of deal.


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## luutzu (12 August 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Guamites would be feeling very unsafe.
> 
> Still possible to de-escalate tensions.  Stop firing missiles and we'll remove our military presence.  That sort of deal.




Not that I'm picking sides, right Canny?   But the reason lil Kim test his missiles might have a lot to do with the presence of military bases all over its neighbourhood. 

Imagine if New Zealand has its military bases in Tasmania, Fiji, Indonesia... with its weapons, we believe, pointing at us; with their Kiwi leader after leader threatening to invade like they did in the 1940s to 1950s, flattening practically our entire country... call us crazy, and maybe we are, but we'd want a nuke too. 

Is the nuke an offensive or defensive move? IT cannot be offensive unless we're suicidal.

But accidents do happen... chubby and tiny fingers do make mistakes.

On the bright side, the US and South Korea is going to conduct a war game around the Korean peninsular next week or so. I know practice makes perfect but now might not be a good time to see how you best take out a country that threatens you and you threatens them.


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## Tisme (12 August 2017)

crackajack said:


> well no war no army lol who gives a rats we need another war, too many people on this planet.





You mean too may of "those" people?


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## wayneL (12 August 2017)

So who had a years supply of baked bean in the back shed?


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## McLovin (12 August 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Guamites would be feeling very unsafe.
> 
> Still possible to de-escalate tensions.  Stop firing missiles and we'll remove our military presence.  That sort of deal.




The DPRK doesn't care about US military bases in Asia – that's China's problem. They're just building regime insurance.


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## basilio (12 August 2017)

*Where are we now with North Korea and how did we get there ?*
I thought this analysis had merit.

* Trump has taken us to the brink of nuclear war. Can he be stopped? *
Jonathan Freedland
In previous nuclear standoffs, Trump’s predecessors knew when to hold back from further antagonising the other side. But now there is no such certainty
 
* Comments*
 2,364 
Contact author

 
@Freedland

Wednesday 9 August 2017 21.39 AEST   Last modified on Thursday 10 August 2017 02.47 AEST

This was the moment many Americans, along with the rest of the world, feared. This – precisely this – was what alarmed us most about the prospect of Donald Trump becoming president of the United States. Not that he would hire useless people or that he would tweet all day or use high office to enrich himself and his family or that he’d be cruel, bigoted and divisive – though those were all concerns. No, the chief anxiety provoked by the notion of Trump in the White House was this: that he was sufficiently reckless, impulsive and stupid to bring the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Of course, cooler heads might soon prevail. China might find the diplomatic back-channel that persuades North Korea to step back from the current clash with Washington. The Pyongyang regime might calculate for itself that, despite its latest threat to attack the US airbase in the Pacific island of Guam, further escalation risks its own survival. Or the generals that now flank Trump – John Kelly as chief of staff, Jim Mattis as defense secretary – might succeed in talking their boss down from the ledge.
*

But make no mistake. Trump’s remarks on Tuesday have pushed the US to the precipice of nuclear confrontation with North Korea. We have to hope that both parties will step back, but be under no illusion that the brink is where we stand. And Trump put us there.*

*The form of words the president used made the critical difference. Threatening Kim Jong-un with “fire and fury” was bellicose enough. But adding the words “the likes of which this world has never seen before” left no doubt that he was talking about a nuclear strike against North Korea.*

It’s worth pausing to consider the obvious consequences of such an action. Seventy five million people live on the Korean peninsula. There are also 30,000 US servicemen and women stationed there. How many would die if Trump made good on his threat? And that is to reckon without further retaliation and escalation, as Russia or China unleashed their own nuclear arsenals. This is why all previous US presidents have used only the most sober language when speaking of North Korea. They have understood the human stakes. They have sought to reduce tension, not ratchet it up.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/09/trump-brink-nuclear-war-stop


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## Tisme (12 August 2017)

WASHINGTON:  India is "behaving like a mature power" in the Doklam standoff in the Sikkim section and making China look like an adolescent throwing a tamper tantrum, a top American defence expert has said.

India and China have been locked in a face-off in the Doklam area for the last 50 days after Indian troops stopped the Chinese People's Liberation Army from building a road in the area.

Praising India's behaviour over the matter, James R Holmes, professor of strategy at the prestigious US Naval War College, said, "New Delhi has done things right thus far, neither backing away from the dispute nor replying in kind to Beijing's over-the-top rhetoric."


"It is behaving as the mature power and making China look like the adolescent throwing a temper tantrum," Mr Holmes said. He said it was 'weird' that China wanted to keep alive a boundary dispute with its most formidable neighbour. "If China wants to pursue an assertive maritime strategy, it needs secure borders on land so it doesn't have to worry about overland aggression from its neighbours," Mr Holmes said.

"In other words, confronting India in the Himalayas is not a purely rational course of action driven by rational cost/benefit analysis," said the professor from the US Naval War College.


When asked why the US has remained silent so far on this issue, he said the current administration has too much on its plate.

"It's also possible Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and his advisers don't want the United States involved in a Himalayan dispute it has little way of influencing. If the dispute escalates, chances are Washington will come out in support of New Delhi," Mr Holmes said.


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## CanOz (12 August 2017)

Regarding the NK / US confrontation:

NK will likely hold its promise and launch multiple missles towards Guam. The US/Allies have a quick choice to make after determing the trajectory. 

1.) Knock them down with THAAD, Aegis, or Patriot missles. Risk here is missing altogether and showing weakness.
2.) if determined to be on the promised course of landing harmlessly in the ocean off Guam, let them land and assess the intelligence that can be gathered from such an excersise. Risk here is that they get the path wrong....

Either way it will be an interesting week ahead.


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## Darc Knight (12 August 2017)

Thread started in 2011 - "World on the brink" .... again? Not again!!!!


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## luutzu (12 August 2017)

basilio said:


> *Where are we now with North Korea and how did we get there ?*
> I thought this analysis had merit.
> 
> * Trump has taken us to the brink of nuclear war. Can he be stopped? *
> ...




And just yesterday, the Yellow Emperor threaten Venezuela with a "military option" unless Venezuela bring democracy back to its people. 

To anyone watching any independent news sources or read the most basics of history on the country's coup attempt on then-president Chavez, the idea that Trump or the US want democracy or civil order in Venezuela is just a joke.

Reminds me of an old Chomsky lecture he gave some 20 years ago... He actually predict that Venezuela will be toppled and bring into line "in the near future". Why? It has the world's largest oil reserves.

Freaking psychos. Literally playing with the world like it's some toy of theirs.


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## Tisme (13 August 2017)

luutzu said:


> And just yesterday, the Yellow Emperor threaten Venezuela with a "military option" unless Venezuela bring democracy back to its people.
> 
> To anyone watching any independent news sources or read the most basics of history on the country's coup attempt on then-president Chavez, the idea that Trump or the US want democracy or civil order in Venezuela is just a joke.
> 
> ...






You probably missed out on the Social Studies we had to endure as kids, which included things like the Monroe Doctrine, which has shaped foreign policy to this day. So some light reading I came across:

http://latinamericanhistory.oxfordr...99366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-41


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## McLovin (13 August 2017)

CanOz said:


> Regarding the NK / US confrontation:
> 
> NK will likely hold its promise and launch multiple missles towards Guam.




I think it's just posturing. So far that's all that has happened. Neither side looks particularly ready or willing for a fight, and actions speak many volumes louder than words. If you accept the raison d'être for NK's ICBM program is for Kim to maintain his family dynasty, from domestic and foreign threats, it doesn't make sense to provoke a conflict in which he would be wiped out in a few days.

If we start seeing US military families in SK and Japan being told to leave, a naval buildup off the coast of the Korean Peninsula, or the North mobilising ground forces along the SK border those would be actions that signify a ratcheting up beyond trash-talking each other. And I think we'd have to raise our level of concern.

The problem with all this talk is things can easily be misinterpreted.


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## basilio (13 August 2017)

McLovin said:


> If we start seeing US military families in SK and Japan being told to leave, a naval buildup off the coast of the Korean Peninsula, or the North mobilising ground forces along the SK border those would be actions that signify a ratcheting up beyond trash-talking each other. And I think we'd have to raise our level of concern.
> 
> The problem with all this talk is things can easily be misinterpreted.




At that stage it will probably be too late to start seriously worrying. Let's also remember that the US and South Korea are about to start a huge joint military exercises in a week or so.  I wonder how that will look to North Korea in the current situation ?

* US and South Korea to stage huge military exercise despite North Korea crisis *
Tens of thousands of troops to take part in joint drill this month, while Trump adds to war of words with ‘locked and loaded’ tweet

*Shares*
1535

Oliver Holmes and agencies

Friday 11 August 2017 17.37 AEST   Last modified on Friday 11 August 2017 21.48 AEST

US and South Korean militaries will go ahead with massive sea, land and air exercises later this month, despite a spiralling situation in which North Korea has threatened to fire missiles towards a US Pacific territory.

The annual joint exercises, named Ulchi-Freedom Guardian, have long been planned for 21-31 August, but now come at a time when both Washington and Pyongyang are on heightened alert, raising the spectre of a mishap or overreaction.

The timing is doubly concerning as it is within a timeframe in which Pyongyang says it will be ready to fire four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward the US-run island of Guam, an unusually specific threat against the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/north-korea-us-south-korea-huge-military-exercise


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## luutzu (13 August 2017)

The devastation in North Korea in the 1940s and 1950s made MacArthur threw up. Flattened 18 of its 22 provinces. Wow.


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## luutzu (13 August 2017)

Tisme said:


> You probably missed out on the Social Studies we had to endure as kids, which included things like the Monroe Doctrine, which has shaped foreign policy to this day. So some light reading I came across:
> 
> http://latinamericanhistory.oxfordr...99366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-41




Great article. Only up to the Monroe Doctrine bit. 

So there's already the Monroe Doctrine before Monroe? Man, all these time I really didn't think much about people saying that the Monroe Doctrine was simply to keep other "great" powers out of the Western Hemisphere. Which does kind of make sense. 

They never follow with the natural consequences of keeping out peer competitors, leaving weak and defenceless nations to fend for themselves: They get to become Banana republics, now serving both bananas and minerals for a complete diet.


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## Tisme (14 August 2017)

luutzu said:


> Great article. Only up to the Monroe Doctrine bit.
> 
> So there's already the Monroe Doctrine before Monroe? Man, all these time I really didn't think much about people saying that the Monroe Doctrine was simply to keep other "great" powers out of the Western Hemisphere. Which does kind of make sense.
> 
> They never follow with the natural consequences of keeping out peer competitors, leaving weak and defenceless nations to fend for themselves: They get to become Banana republics, now serving both bananas and minerals for a complete diet.




The US entered a period of paranoia that took WW2 to soften


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## Wysiwyg (14 August 2017)

luutzu said:


> The devastation in North Korea in the 1940s and 1950s made MacArthur threw up. Flattened 18 of its 22 provinces. Wow.



So maybe a touch of bitterness from the U.S. destruction during that era which explains fatboy's discontent with the U.S.?


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## luutzu (14 August 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> So maybe a touch of bitterness from the U.S. destruction during that era which explains fatboy's discontent with the U.S.?




Technically the Korean War haven't ended. So given the firepower that was brought onto North Korea, it'd be insane for them to not have a nuke, just in case.

I heard that Kim the Elder as well as Lil' Kim have made attempts to neutralise relation with the US/West. Just the US does not see it to their national interests to forgive the North Koreans for their transgressions  

I don't think the Kims don't want to neutralise relation because they forgot what was done to their country, but dynastic security mean they need to trade and get into the international system. So to sanction and further isolate North Korea as Trump did recently... It's beyond my pay grade. I mean, what if there's a revolt and those nuclear material disappear somewhere?

That and sanctions has never hurt the ruling elite. It'll just starve and kill the poor and the weak.


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## luutzu (14 August 2017)

Tisme said:


> The US entered a period of paranoia that took WW2 to soften




I don't think they soften up. It's just that after WWII, all the major powers in the world are destroyed and became its vassal states or arch-enemy.


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 August 2017)

luutzu said:


> Technically the Korean War haven't ended. So given the firepower that was brought onto North Korea, it'd be insane for them to not have a nuke, just in case.



Still need the subservient to be programmed for kamikaze type war. Memories of the 40's - 50's would be great motivators for a mostly imprisoned society.


----------



## luutzu (14 August 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Still need the subservient to be programmed for kamikaze type war. Memories of the 40's - 50's would be great motivators for a mostly imprisoned society.




Not sure if North Korea has an air force. I saw pictures of one of its "drones", so I guess they do have an air force, sort of.

No need for Kamikaze though. Heard that they have crap loads of conventional artillery pointing south. It's all on hair trigger alert and some expert and US general was saying as far as they know, there's really no way of stopping them once the proverbial hits the fan. 

But according to that crazy warmonger US Senator Graham, if the war takes place it'll be away from US soil... so it's alright I guess. I mean, there's only some 20,000 US soldiers (and families) in the firing line, there's Seoul... the potential to draw in China and Russia.

North Korea is locked up, but not so sure if it's just the Kim or also locked in by other more powerful states as well. I mean there's China, there's Russia and the US. 

Seems NK is one of those buffer zone country, no man's land where each major power draws a line. So it's between a rock and a hard place.


----------



## McLovin (16 August 2017)

McLovin said:


> I think it's just posturing. So far that's all that has happened. Neither side looks particularly ready or willing for a fight, and actions speak many volumes louder than words. If you accept the raison d'être for NK's ICBM program is for Kim to maintain his family dynasty, from domestic and foreign threats, it doesn't make sense to provoke a conflict in which he would be wiped out in a few days.




Like I said, posturing. Behind the rhetoric of imperialist Yankees with their heads in nooses, cancelling the launch is probably as good a sign you will get from NK that it is willing to talk.



> SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea appeared on Tuesday to pause its threat to launch ballistic missiles toward Guam, saying it would wait to assess “the foolish and stupid conduct” of the United States before carrying the launchings out.
> 
> The statement came as the United States and South Korea were preparing to conduct joint military exercises on the Korean Peninsula and surrounding waters starting on Monday, despite North Korea’s vehement opposition to such drills.
> 
> ...




https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/...s&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

Next flashpoint...China v India.


----------



## Tisme (16 August 2017)

luutzu said:


> I don't think they soften up. It's just that after WWII, all the major powers in the world are destroyed and became its vassal states or arch-enemy.





Well they did have a policy of isolationism that persisted until after the war.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2017)

From Shakespeare, Richard 11  ( 1595 )

As Shakespeare said 422 years ago.

_The bay-trees in our country all are wither'd
And meteors fright the fixed stars of heaven;
The pale-fac'd moon looks bloody on the earth
And lean-look'd prophets whisper fearful change;
Rich men look sad and ruffians dance and leap,
The one in fear to lose what they enjoy,
The other to enjoy by rage and war._

War is a constant state of humanity.
Prepare and be vigilant.

gg


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 August 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> From Shakespeare, Richard 11  ( 1595 )
> 
> As Shakespeare said 422 years ago.
> 
> ...




I'm gonna dance like a ruffian.


----------



## luutzu (16 August 2017)

Tisme said:


> Well they did have a policy of isolationism that persisted until after the war.




I think they were more hemmed in rather than isolated. They didn't have much of a Navy, at least none that matches the British or the Spaniards to make much waves. 

But even as early as John Adams, the Yanks was just biding its time until those old decrepit European empires decay and collapses. Until then, as the plan goes, there are plenty of land to grab and not much else beside bows and arrows, and a few scalping, trying to stop that march from seas to shining seas.

So the Louisiana Purchase doubled the size of those 13 colonies. Next came half of Mexico then Florida and the Caribbeans soon after. They also purchase Alaska from the Tsars for some reason. Teddy was busy taking out the French from their Panama Canal... paving the way for complete Naval dominance (defence ) of the two continents. 

So they weren't isolationists. If they were, then the Chinese can be believed to also be isolationist... starting out "uniting" a bunch of states then spreading that peace up, down and sideways of the Yangtze and beyond, way beyond.


----------



## Tisme (18 August 2017)

luutzu said:


> I think they were more hemmed in rather than isolated. They didn't have much of a Navy, at least none that matches the British or the Spaniards to make much waves.
> 
> But even as early as John Adams, the Yanks was just biding its time until those old decrepit European empires decay and collapses. Until then, as the plan goes, there are plenty of land to grab and not much else beside bows and arrows, and a few scalping, trying to stop that march from seas to shining seas.
> 
> ...




In the absence of my Social Studies B book from high school, this might help a bit:

http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1601.html


----------



## luutzu (18 August 2017)

Tisme said:


> In the absence of my Social Studies B book from high school, this might help a bit:
> 
> http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1601.html




They defined "isolationism" as not wanting any contact with Europe. That's like calling Mongolia under Genghis Khan an isolationist until he knocks on Europe's doors. That and it's a bit different to the usual definition of a hermit/isolationist country - where they just mind their own business, secure their borders and not expanding it etc. 

btw, how come your school texts focuses on US history? This imperial outpost and its colonial schools weren't good enough that you were sent to the new Rome?


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## Sean K (24 August 2017)

Are there any countries on the brink that are not Islamic or Socialist?


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## luutzu (24 August 2017)

kennas said:


> Are there any countries on the brink that are not Islamic or Socialist?




Communism is not Socialism. Likewise, Capitalism isn't Democracy... without a fairly healthy dose of Socialism, Capitalism is a Dickensian nightmare.


----------



## Tisme (25 August 2017)

luutzu said:


> btw, how come your school texts focuses on US history? This imperial outpost and its colonial schools weren't good enough that you were sent to the new Rome?




Contrary to the rubbish you might hear on shows like the Drum about twisted history, we were well schooled in world politics and social studies from Primary school on. We were knowledgable about Indonesia, S/E Asia, the USA, Europe, etc and a big focus on Australian explorers ... NZ didn't matter apart from being Anzacs.

It was a different world back then, when we were proud of being Australian with a pedigree of being the child of the biggest, most successful empire the world has ever seen, but also proud to knock the POMs for being arrogant overlords. We actually played weekly sport on school time too!!!


----------



## Sean K (3 December 2017)

Anyone else sitting happy and content with current events?

The sides are taking shape for a massive conflict. I’m not asking for it, just commentating.

At the moment we are on the winning team, again. Thanks entirely to the US. 

Geostrategic luck has us in the same spot as the Americans, the Canuks and the UK. Isolatated Islands with massive moats around us. No one can invade the five eyes.

China is dreaming that they can ever take over any region again due to long range missiles and tech. If we really wanted to, the Spratlies would be obliterated in seconds. Strategic thinkers know this, that’s why we’ve  allowed them to waste resources on developing them. How stupid are the Chinese to think putting a few guns on remote islands would be of any concern? The US could destroy them tomorrow. 

However,

It’s better that we get this next war over and done with before too many more countries take sides.

Right now it’s China, Russia and Shiite countries v the rest. We must take the upper hand, right now, or we will suffer more greatly. 

I’m not a war monger.

This is the way. 

The US needs to regrasp its position and control world order in line with our values or we are headed towards armageddon.


----------



## CanOz (3 December 2017)

Jeez kennas.....

Pretty dire...

Makes me want to dig a bunker and hoard tinned food


----------



## Knobby22 (3 December 2017)

USA values? I remember them.


----------



## luutzu (3 December 2017)

kennas said:


> Anyone else sitting happy and content with current events?
> 
> The sides are taking shape for a massive conflict. I’m not asking for it, just commentating.
> 
> ...




Yea, the world looks to be heading for massive collision between China/Russia/USA and allies.

China is (re)starting its games of creating vassal states and coalition of the willing. Already had a hand in Zimbawe, I think South Sudan, and Myanamar. It already own Laos, Cambodia's in the pocket.

As to its bases in the South China Sea... I don't think it'd be that easy for the US to take them out. I mean it's technically easy... strategically, not really.

I mean any state with a few jets can take out US military bases or enter its territory, just none dare do it because they know what the consequences would be.

So would the US bet on China not doing anything in return if their military bases are flatten? Even if the comrades would permit it, I don't think the ordinary Chinese citizen would... that century of shame need to be cleanse. And if war breaks out, hard to say who will win because both can't fight each other directly or go nuclear on each other.

The only war with nuclear powers like China is through trade and economics. I think the Comrades have learn from the Soviets how not to let its capital fly West and the rest be sold off to foreign interests. 
 That and China have learned from its losses during the GFC, the sinking US dollar that almost halved the debt owed to China; a few games by US controlled IMF and World Bank... it's creating its own bank and investing in its own initiatives around the world.

With those, they will gain a few friends and more influence. Then Australia will just fall towards China. There's no need for them to militarily takeover. They can't do it as you say, but they can buy what they need - at mate's rate.


----------



## sptrawler (3 December 2017)

All we need is Malcolm (while he still has some say) to back KEV for the U.N.
Then they will have another fruit loop in the mix, for a really good xmas pudding, you have to be barmy army to think this isn't orchestrated.


----------



## qldfrog (4 December 2017)

am I the only person around who believe we have now more probabilities of a conflict with North korea then avoiding it?
I would say 60%;
Trump did his tour and got all the Russia/China answers he needed,talked to Japan/Korea any extra pretext is not needed anymore with the last NK test;
what next and when ? with the winter OG due to start soon: start strike after? before?
time is running out and the US can not afford another iraki style **** up..
In the meantime, the market is going higher and higher


----------



## luutzu (4 December 2017)

qldfrog said:


> am I the only person around who believe we have now more probabilities of a conflict with North korea then avoiding it?
> I would say 60%;
> Trump did his tour and got all the Russia/China answers he needed,talked to Japan/Korea any extra pretext is not needed anymore with the last NK test;
> what next and when ? with the winter OG due to start soon: start strike after? before?
> ...




Trump's going to hit Iran first.

Hitting NK might bring in the Chinese and the Russian. And that's after NK take out a fair couple millions of South Koreans and US personnel. 

But then again it's Trump and his tiny hands at the red button so who knows. He might wake up one day to a rude text from lil Kim and goes nuclear.


----------



## luutzu (7 December 2017)

Interview with Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers.

He was a Nuclear War planner? His take on the Doomsday Machine and how nuclear war would take place.


----------



## basilio (7 December 2017)

The decision to  recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel takes the Middle East and the world a few extra notches to a shooting war that will solve all our other problems permanently.

The utter madness of the decison, (apart from virtually declaring war on 1.5 billion Muslims ) is managing to alienate every other country in the world (except Israel ) at a time the US is trying to justify a challenge to North Korea. 

Donald Trump is insanely dangerous and incompetant.


----------



## AlexDrys (7 December 2017)

Why worry about these extraneous issues when you live in a safe and prosperous country like Australia?

Why not just focus on picking winning stocks with multiple upside and limited to no downside?

Macroeconomic concerns usually have little to no impact on the value of businesses or, more precisely, pieces of businesses known as stocks.



basilio said:


> The decision to  recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel takes the Middle East and the world a few extra notches to a shooting war that will solve all our other problems permanently.
> 
> The utter madness of the decison, (apart from virtually declaring war on 1.5 billion Muslims ) is managing to alienate every other country in the world (except Israel ) at a time the US is trying to justify a challenge to North Korea.
> 
> Donald Trump is insanely dangerous and incompetant.


----------



## basilio (7 December 2017)

AlexDrys said:


> Why worry about these extraneous issues when you live in a safe and prosperous country like Australia?
> 
> Why not just focus on picking winning stocks with multiple upside and limited to no downside?
> 
> Macroeconomic concerns usually have little to no impact on the value of businesses or, more precisely, pieces of businesses known as stocks.




Are you serious ? Or is this just a clever wind up? 

Any significant war in Korea would  wreck the South Korean  industry and economy - which coincidentally is well embedded in Asia and Australia.  The risk of any exchange going nuclear is now at its highest point with the US threatening to wipe N Korea off the map and N Korea not entertaining that thought. 

Israel has nuclear weapons and has made clear it it will use them as it sees fit. The remainder of the Arab world is appalled at the US decision to so clearly support the Israeli government on a critical issue like Jerusalem. 

100 years ago a war on the other side of the world could be limited in its effects. Not now Alex.


----------



## AlexDrys (7 December 2017)

Ben Graham's famous quote comes to mind:

'A strong-minded approach to investment, firmly based on the margin-of-safety principle can yield handsome rewards...In 1900 none of us had any inkling of what the next fifty years were to do to the world. Now, in 1949, we have deeper apprehensions but no more knowledge of the future. Yet if we confine our attention to American investment experience there is some comfort to be gleaned from the last half-century. Through all its vicissitudes and casualties, as earth-shaking as they were unforeseen, it remained true that sound investment principles produced generally sound results. We must act on the assumption that they will continue to do so.'
Benjamin Graham, writing in the Introduction to 'The Intelligent Investor', first published in 1949.







basilio said:


> Are you serious ? Or is this just a clever wind up?
> 
> Any significant war in Korea would  wreck the South Korean  industry and economy - which coincidentally is well embedded in Asia and Australia.  The risk of any exchange going nuclear is now at its highest point with the US threatening to wipe N Korea off the map and N Korea not entertaining that thought.
> 
> ...


----------



## luutzu (7 December 2017)

AlexDrys said:


> Ben Graham's famous quote comes to mind:
> 
> 'A strong-minded approach to investment, firmly based on the margin-of-safety principle can yield handsome rewards...In 1900 none of us had any inkling of what the next fifty years were to do to the world. Now, in 1949, we have deeper apprehensions but no more knowledge of the future. Yet if we confine our attention to American investment experience there is some comfort to be gleaned from the last half-century. Through all its vicissitudes and casualties, as earth-shaking as they were unforeseen, it remained true that sound investment principles produced generally sound results. We must act on the assumption that they will continue to do so.'
> Benjamin Graham, writing in the Introduction to 'The Intelligent Investor', first published in 1949.




Would have been better to quote Fisher regarding the need to study the business and ignore the macro.

For instance, Fisher said that stocks are said to be risky due to war. However, if war were to break out where the US homeland are under threat of extinction, the world will go to heck anyway (Fisher put it better).

But as Basillio alluded to above, the world of America in the 50s and 60s aren't the world of today. American, hence Western, position in the world aren't the same where they were after total victory and dominance of the world after WW2. 

For one, the sick man of Asia is fast rising. If current trajectory continues for another couple of decades, Western influence (forget about domination) of Asia, Africa is minimal to non-existence. Asian trades alone accounts for a fairly large chunk of world trade. Losing access and influence in that one region alone and it'll be pretty difficult to service them couple dozen trillions in debt.

So while Graham, Fisher, Buffett are right that the investor ought to focus on the business in making investment decisions, knowing the broad macro geopolitical and economic grand strategy does give insight into the overall direction of the world.

It help decides whether a sure bet is tinned cans, water, or Versace and JimmyChoo shoes. Also help the investor decide what companies, industry and what type of management can better cope with the coming changes.

That and it's a way to read history as we live it.


----------



## sptrawler (20 December 2017)

luutzu said:


> But then again it's Trump and his tiny hands at the red button so who knows. He might wake up one day to a rude text from lil Kim and goes nuclear.




Well that would write all the money printing, off the ledger, "we have spent 2billion trillion zillion on the war with North Korea".
Now we need to focus and rebuild, this great nation. The war cost a lot, but we built a great manufacturing base, that saw us through.
Now we need to re group and build up from this base, there is a lot of rebuilding required and we are the nation who can supply the goods.
Hope it doesn't play out that way, but with the press we have, there is no quiet way of doing it.


----------



## luutzu (20 December 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Well that would write all the money printing, off the ledger, "we have spent 2billion trillion zillion on the war with North Korea".
> Now we need to focus and rebuild, this great nation. The war cost a lot, but we built a great manufacturing base, that saw us through.
> Now we need to re group and build up from this base, there is a lot of rebuilding required and we are the nation who can supply the goods.
> Hope it doesn't play out that way, but with the press we have, there is no quiet way of doing it.




If war breaks out with North Korea, the world will be rebuilt from the nuclear dust up. 

Heard an interview recently where the egghead said there's some 220,000 Americans living in S.Korea. They include the troops, their families, citizens etc.

There's some 1 million Chinese living and working in Seoul. There's another 1M Japanese; another 1M Taiwanese etc.

You can't warn those people, or evacuate them out of range. If you do, the North Korean will know, they they will strike.

So somebody will get nuked and the rest will be dragged in. 

Given how NK was bombed by the US during the Korean War to the point that literally there's almost no man-made structure left standing... I'm sure the NK also have the Samson principle: Try again and we bring down the entire place.


----------



## sptrawler (20 December 2017)

luutzu said:


> If war breaks out with North Korea, the world will be rebuilt from the nuclear dust up.
> 
> Heard an interview recently where the egghead said there's some 220,000 Americans living in S.Korea. They include the troops, their families, citizens etc.
> 
> ...




One would think that whatever NK has, the U.S has 100 times more, it may sound all good but it won't end that way.
Also China has come a long way since the Korean War, they no longer are the impoverished hordes to the North, they now are one of the Worlds power nations and sell $hit loads of stuff to the U.S, U.K and Europe.
I don't know how much they rely on trade with NK.
I would expect that if NK decides to go to war, they will be on there own, if not it will become a World War.
Then it would become really interesting, because it would become about debasing the $US as the reserve currency, then we would come into play due to our gold reserves.
Ah speculation, isn't it great, what fun. lol


----------



## wayneL (20 December 2017)

Ww3 will ruin Chinese plans for the Chinese century.

They may threaten, but a real war with the US won't go well for them. (won't go well for anyone really)

I tell you,  war is not in the plan for Chinese economic hegemony.


----------



## sptrawler (20 December 2017)

China has done extremely well, in the last 20 years, selling $hit to everybody.
It has built them from a second world economy, to almost leading, the first world.
There is no way they are going to risk continuing growth, by backing North Korea, unless they feel they can gain some financial strategic advantage.


----------



## Sean K (23 December 2017)

Now we have the Taiwan factor coming into play. 

China has become so bold as to say that US ships entering Taiwan is an act of war. 

On the grand scheme of things, strategically thinking, we are approaching disaster. These events take years to metastasise. 

It will take just one seemingness innocuous event for the cards to fall. 

It's only a matter of what, not when.


----------



## luutzu (23 December 2017)

sptrawler said:


> One would think that whatever NK has, the U.S has 100 times more, it may sound all good but it won't end that way.
> Also China has come a long way since the Korean War, they no longer are the impoverished hordes to the North, they now are one of the Worlds power nations and sell $hit loads of stuff to the U.S, U.K and Europe.
> I don't know how much they rely on trade with NK.
> I would expect that if NK decides to go to war, they will be on there own, if not it will become a World War.
> ...




Yea, NK won't have a chance against the US. But its strategy is not to take on the US, just merely Seoul or Tokyo and thereby, potentially, dragging the US, SK, Japan into war with China and Russia. 

Or it could just threaten and strike Japan, giving Japanese imperialists a fairly reasonable excuse to rebuild its military to not just protect but project power. 

A resurgent Japan, probably SK too, could lead to a big headache for American influence (control) over those two colonies. 

So it's not the size, it's how you use it


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 December 2017)

So many sovereignty issues have led to fighting it is a given it will happen in the future. Human has come a long way since the rock throwing days.


----------



## Sean K (26 February 2018)

The three theatres that are likely to open up will be centered on Syria, Ukrain and Nth Korea. Hard to see what kicks off first (perhaps the Israeli jet being shot down is the start), but they will probably ignite around the same period and draw all the major powers in, forcing sides to be taken. We are not ready.


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## Sean K (30 March 2018)

World strategic thinkers are counting down to when this kicks off. You read it here first. The world is in perile. Tasmania might be safe.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...-tensions-with-west-rise-20180330-p4z719.html


----------



## CanOz (30 March 2018)

Safe from what Kennas?


----------



## MrBurns (30 March 2018)

Tasmania is the punishment.


----------



## SirRumpole (30 March 2018)

MrBurns said:


> Tasmania is the punishment.




Nah, they have a Liberal government, what could go wrong ?


----------



## luutzu (3 April 2018)

Who says OZ manufacturing is dead? 

Ramping up arms exports now.

"Lowest morals are just the beginning"... classic.


----------



## basilio (4 April 2018)

Great cut-through ad there Luutzu. As per all the ones produced from this group.

I just wonder how long these characters will be allowed to get away with such devestating skewerage of the Government.


----------



## Sean K (6 April 2018)

After the next meeting between the relevant partners, the Nth Koreans will say, ‘we have stopped developing nuclear weapons.’ But they wont!

This combined with Russia taking over parts of their old home land, staking claim in Crimea and Syria, China staking claim all over the SC Sea, and the US being pussies. Massive arms race taking place across the globe.

The next world war started years ago. 

I am thankful that Australia will be relatively save.


----------



## CanOz (6 April 2018)

Safe from what Kennas? Invasion? Direct nuclear attack, fallout?


----------



## Joules MM1 (6 April 2018)

kennas said:


> The next world war started years ago.
> 
> I am thankful that Australia will be relatively save.




a pretty good movie i reckon http://moviesonline.la/watch/Ed9ERadY-tomorrow-when-the-war-began.html
"tomorrow-when-the-war-began"

oh, you are being serious .....


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Safe from what Kennas? Invasion? Direct nuclear attack, fallout?



Smurfs.


----------



## luutzu (6 April 2018)

basilio said:


> Great cut-through ad there Luutzu. As per all the ones produced from this group.
> 
> I just wonder how long these characters will be allowed to get away with such devestating skewerage of the Government.




They're pretty good aren't they. Too good the government is taking notice.

You probably saw the ones where the gov't sent them a letter about the "Australien Government" logo they use - it's too similar to the real government logo and they better change or else!


----------



## luutzu (6 April 2018)

kennas said:


> After the next meeting between the relevant partners, the Nth Koreans will say, ‘we have stopped developing nuclear weapons.’ But they wont!
> 
> This combined with Russia taking over parts of their old home land, staking claim in Crimea and Syria, China staking claim all over the SC Sea, and the US being pussies. Massive arms race taking place across the globe.
> 
> ...




The US aren't being pussies. They're just overstretched and can't just drone China like they could all over the Middle East and Africa.

So they're (very slowly, maybe even too late) in their pivot to Asia.

The US is trying to win friends and influence (minor) Asians in... Asia    But so far, not many are falling into their arms.

Those that are already owned, with the exception of Australia, Singapore and Taiwan... are looking for an excuse to rearm themselves and kick the US out. i.e. S.Korea and Japan.

In SE Asia, Laos has long been owned by China; Cambodia's Hung Sen is already in their camp - hence the US listing on war criminal evil doer guy list.

China is trying to get their generals back online in Myanmar. The generals were being coaxed by the US back into democracy but I guess it didn't work out, hence US outrage at their genocide against the Rhohinga Muslims.

Vietnam is trying to win both sides. Which mean they'll fail and you can expect another war there in short enough while.


China is surrounded by a lot of countries. That's a lot of potential enemies. It's a dictatorship, a godless commie... Yet for some reason, they managed to win friends a whole lot easier than the greatest democracy on Earth.

There's Russia being pushed into China's energy-hungry arms. If only the Russians were permitted to sell their gas into Europe and keep a couple of ports and no sanctions.... half of China's borders will be potential staging grounds to keep Beijing dispersed.

Instead, while the US are busy with the M.E., Africa... the Chinese give them more reasons to keep on being busy there.

With a few pallets of cash to the right people, crap load of investment to the upper crust... a lot of Africa's resources are being owned and shipped. With plenty left over for the new Silk Road - further winning hearts and minds, creating jobs and "help" neighbours building "their" infrastructures (for future cheap Chinese export) and importation of riches back to the Middle Kingdom.

Then, with relatively free reign, they just took over the seas around them without much trouble at all.

If China can continue their current policies... ie. steal crap without being hated too much. They might dominate most of the world in 50 years... unless we go nuclear, in which case we're alls tuffed.


----------



## CanOz (6 April 2018)

One thing i realised today was that Musk's Live roadster in space will provide for excellent viewing once nuclear wars breaks out. So we should have a great vantage point until comms are wiped out, at which point i recommend putting your head between your legs and kissing your sorry a$$ good bye....


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> One thing i realised today was that Musk's Live roadster in space will provide for excellent viewing once nuclear wars breaks out. So we should have a great vantage point until comms are wiped out, at which point i recommend putting your head between your legs and kissing your sorry a$$ good bye....




hungry Can is a grumpy Can
feast your eyes on this


----------



## Tisme (7 April 2018)

You guys are so negative. 

With people like Di Natalie and strategic alliances like the LGBTxyz, youtube cute pussycats., etc. surely no power on earth would dare trying to upset our age of enlightenment?


----------



## Sean K (14 April 2018)

So Russia will have to relaliate now. Putin is an alpha and can’t be seen to be week.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 April 2018)

kennas said:


> So Russia will have to relaliate now. Putin is an alpha and can’t be seen to be week.



The question is what will he do?

Military attack on something?

Turn the gas off to Europe?

Try to force the oil price sharply higher or lower?

Something less visible but nonetheless effective?


----------



## notting (14 April 2018)

The Trump Pee tape is top billing I'm told.

Hey, they raided his lawyer, so what was there to lose now anyway?


----------



## noirua (14 April 2018)

*Historian Marc Faber: Nuclear War With Russia Will End Civilization*


----------



## moXJO (15 April 2018)

kennas said:


> So Russia will have to relaliate now. Putin is an alpha and can’t be seen to be week.



The bigger threat is Iran resuming its nuke program


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 April 2018)

moXJO said:


> The bigger threat is Iran resuming its nuke program



Iran is still seen as the baddies because the leadership fears the country being conquered or at least attacked or are they perceived by the "West" as evil, uncivilised war mongers?


----------



## albaby (15 April 2018)

Tisme said:


> You guys are so negative.
> 
> With people like Di Natalie and strategic alliances like the LGBTxyz, youtube cute pussycats., etc. surely no power on earth would dare trying to upset our age of enlightenment?



Age of Entitlement?


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## Tisme (15 April 2018)

albaby said:


> Age of Entitlement?




Sarcastic satire?


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## Tisme (15 April 2018)

*Donald J. Trump*‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
A perfectly executed strike last night. Thank you to France and the United Kingdom for their wisdom and the power of their fine Military. Could not have had a better result. Mission Accomplished!


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## moXJO (15 April 2018)

We verified that chemical attack before dropping bombs?


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## moXJO (15 April 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Iran is still seen as the baddies because the leadership fears the country being conquered or at least attacked or are they perceived by the "West" as evil, uncivilised war mongers?



The threats  they drop on the west ain't helping. Israel wants a crack at them if there is any hint of nuclear weapons.


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## explod (15 April 2018)

Anyole how, dumidity dum dum down the road with flag flying.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...oxin-used-skripal-poisoning-usuk-produced-not

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...arned-about-false-wmd-claims-iraq-war-are-now

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...es-and-propaganda-started-nearly-every-war-us


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## moXJO (15 April 2018)

The Clintons, Bush, Obama and now Trump, all wanted in on the middle east. Lately they Syria has been the target. Trump lost a lot of his base by bombing Syria.


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## Tisme (16 April 2018)

"War.
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing, listen to me
it ain't nothing but a heart-breaker"


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## cynic (16 April 2018)

A little off topic perhaps, but something about a recent post, reminded of a particularly prophetic passage.
Courtesy of somebody, or other, who really knew some stuff:



> I have a fairy by my side
> Which says I must not sleep,
> When once in pain I loudly cried
> It said "You must not weep"
> ...


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## luutzu (7 May 2018)

*Daniel Ellsberg @Google.*

The Doomsday Machine, war, colonialism, American (covert) imperialism, nuclear war plans. 

Dr. Strangelove was a documentary. Funny and scary.


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## Darc Knight (7 May 2018)

Thread started in 2011. Is this Apocalypse a slow burn or something?


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## Joules MM1 (7 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Thread started in 2011. Is this Apocalypse a slow burn or something?




lulz ....someones getting burnt alright ....all the helena handbasket crowd ..the muppets who have been 80%+ short local indexes in cfd's ....._the_ smart crowd


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## luutzu (7 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Thread started in 2011. Is this Apocalypse a slow burn or something?




Threat started in the 1950s, according to Ellsberg. 

Various other documented facts showed that there have been about a dozen saves over the decades. As in the protocol order a strike but the guy in the room with the button refused to have it pushed.

According to Ellsberg, who was a Pentagon nuclear war planner... the somewhat outdated war plans between the US and Russia would kill about 99% of life on earth. 

There's a study of nukes between Pakistan and India dropping a hundred or so... tat would only kill about 2 billion.


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## MrBurns (7 May 2018)

I'm going broke leaving money in the bank a 2.5% waiting for a decent correction to jump in on.


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## satanoperca (7 May 2018)

Mr Burns, better than being impatient and going broke at -2.5% on your investments.


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## explod (7 May 2018)

Need a roof full of solar panels, front lawn in veggies, chooks and a stil out the back, a bomb shelter below and a good water tank.

Oh, and a 20 foot solid concrete fence with electric lightning spikes at the top and water proof against the rising tides.


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## basilio (7 May 2018)

luutzu said:


> Threat started in the 1950s, according to Ellsberg.
> 
> Various other documented facts showed that there have been about a dozen saves over the decades. As in the protocol order a strike but the guy in the room with the button refused to have it pushed.
> 
> ...




Great man Daniel Ellsberg. I don't know how much members on ASF know about his life but  checking  out his story on Wiki is captivating.  Many comparisons with our current situation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg


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## luutzu (7 May 2018)

basilio said:


> Great man Daniel Ellsberg. I don't know how much members on ASF know about his life but  checking  out his story on Wiki is captivating.  Many comparisons with our current situation.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg




One of the rare patriot and humanitarian. The two tend not to go together but somehow a man like Ellsberg fit that ideal vision of a patriot who devote his protect his country and held its leadership to that moral high ground. 

Contrast that to a psycho like Bibi... in the compilation below, pushing for war with Iran since... ever.

Bibi (2000?): I guarantee you that if you take out Saddam's regime there will be enormous, enormous positive reverberation throughout the region. 

Fark me. Didn't work out that way did it. Some 2 million Iraqis dead, millions more displaced; the entire region thrown into a shiet storm. 

And now he's pushing for war with Iran, again.

With Iraq II he found his idiot president; this time he appear to have found a second idiot in the WH.


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## greggles (16 May 2018)

Middle Eastern prophecy: Is Trump a reincarnated King Cyrus, destined to herald the end of days?

More chaos and bloodshed in Israel. Trump seems intent on fanning the flames of religious hatred and has evangelical supporters behind him urging him to continue, hoping he will bring on Armageddon.

With a fool like Trump in the White House, the world is truly on the brink.


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## Smurf1976 (16 May 2018)

Interest rates rising - check

Stock market at extreme high valuation - check

Oil prices rising - check

Must be time for a war then.

Pretty sure I've seen this movie before. Same old story.


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## greggles (16 May 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Interest rates rising - check
> 
> Stock market at extreme high valuation - check
> 
> ...




Oh, it's going to happen. Trump will be a one term President, and there's no way he's going to leave office without a good war under his belt.


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## Tisme (16 May 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Interest rates rising - check
> 
> Stock market at extreme high valuation - check
> 
> ...





Big social adjustment if that comes, might wipe out all the gains the SJWs have made.


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## grah33 (19 May 2018)

It's not looking good. Last time I checked Iran and Israel have had an exchange. Things have seemed one sided for a while, but you know how it is with the “surprise factor”... Russia's helping Iran.  The stronger side doesn't necessarily win.


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## noirua (17 January 2021)




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## Sean K (3 March 2022)

Has the last decade been like the 1930s? Or, is this just the start?

Or, does MAD mean a global war is not possible?

Or, does Russia just take the Russian part of Ukraine (east side) and we all live happily ever after?

Or, does China now have a guide book on how to invade Taiwan and get away with it because the West doesn't have an official defence agreement with them? 

And, where the F*CK is the United Nations? International law means nothing to this paper tiger.


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## SirRumpole (3 March 2022)

Sean K said:


> And, where the F*CK is the United Nations? International law means nothing to this paper tiger.




Good question.

It's time the democracies pulled out of the UN and created a new organisation just for those with Western values.


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## IFocus (3 March 2022)

The real question is who is going to die for the cause?

If so what is the cause? (serious question)

Défense of billionaires perhaps?


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## Sean K (11 April 2022)

The Ukraine thing is putting us into a real bind. BJ standing next to the Z man at a presser saying they are behind them is going to galvanise Russia, China and the other autocrats. This is not going away and we're backing Vlad into a corner. That's trouble.


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## sptrawler (12 April 2022)

Sean K said:


> The Ukraine thing is putting us into a real bind. BJ standing next to the Z man at a presser saying they are behind them is going to galvanise Russia, China and the other autocrats. This is not going away and we're backing Vlad into a corner. That's trouble.



If Russian public opinion does rise against Vlad. IMO it will get messy. The upside is we will probably get some second hand subs, while we wait for our order to be made. 🤣


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## IFocus (12 April 2022)

Sean K said:


> The Ukraine thing is putting us into a real bind. BJ standing next to the Z man at a presser saying they are behind them is going to galvanise Russia, China and the other autocrats. This is not going away and we're backing Vlad into a corner. That's trouble.





Do you meet aggression with strength appeasement or weakness?

Not sure Putin is in the Hitler mould but longer term it looks grim, I remember a nice quote about why Russians accept Putin, because they could end up with someone worse!


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## sptrawler (12 April 2022)

sptrawler said:


> If Russian public opinion does rise against Vlad. IMO it will get messy. The upside is we will probably get some second hand subs, while we wait for our order to be made. 🤣



Meant to say if public opinion doesn't rise against Vlad, it will get messy. There is very little chance of him backing down without concessions or unless the Russian public turn against him, but I don't know enough about Russia or he people to have any idea whether the public have an affinity with Ukraine, or dislike the Ukraine.
Went to St Petersburg pre covid, nice place but the locals didn't appear overly interested in tourists, unlike Europe where people are peddling junk from pop up stalls.


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