# Nickel is back!



## BREND

Prices already dropped to about $32,000 per metric ton recently from a peak of around $54,000 per metric ton in May, according to LME data. 

Nickel is getting to look like a bargain now. The metal has lost all its gains for 2007 and has retreated to November 2006 levels. Nickel bulls capitulated and the nosedive appears likely to reverse over the next few months. 

The Chinese haven't stopped using nickel and the government may soon nullify its export tax rebate on steel products. If this occurs, stainless-steel pricing could firm and then rebound in the fourth quarter and into 2008. This would help nickel rebound.

The LME implemented new rules aimed at preventing collusion between dominant players, and there's a threshold at which long positions are required to lend to the rest of the market, he explained. 

But looking further ahead, the world economy's demand for stainless steel will drive nickel demand, he said. And not just in Asia. The hybrid car market is expected to grow significantly. 

Also, take a look at how much investment bankers have been wrong in the past few years, he said. They are counting on some very large nickel laterite projects coming on stream over the next few years. Laterite is defined as a red soil produced in rock decay. 

Those types of projects are "much more expensive and challenging," Pinkowski said. "This perceived supply may not be as great as people think it will be." 

Earlier this week, Rosbaltnord.ru reported that Norilsk Nickel (NILSY) , the world's largest producer of nickel, plans to spend around $1 billion in its facilities in the Kola Peninsula in Russia by the year 2020. 

That confirms what Norilsk may portend for the nickel price.

_Vested in CVRD and looking to buy Nickel Sept call option_


----------



## rederob

It's been a long and winding road but with the metal mix in EV batteries changing to incorporate more nickel, demand estimates may have proven conservative.
Two of the most common rechargeable batteries are Nickel Cobalt Aluminium (NCA) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC), which previously used 80% and 33% nickel respectively, however newer formulations of NMC are approaching 80% nickel.
The EV market is still minuscule, and it presently accounts for a small fraction of total global nickel consumption.  Nevertheless, this component of demand never existed when the previous boom in prices occurred over 10 years ago, so its incremental increase will place a stress on supply in the next few years.
And when I saw this, I wondered:


	

		
			
		

		
	
 Are the EV battery gigafactories which are now under construction guaranteeing their supply, thus leading to the large cancellation in warrants in recent weeks?
If you do the maths on the 30 day chart above, then LME warehouses would be empty early next year.  I doubt that's likely to occur as metal inventories get volatile when stocks are getting low as more "trading" the market takes places as distinct from physical delivery.
In terms of equities, I haven't followed the ASX producers for a good while, so if any of you are onto something that's looking good, please post.


----------



## sptrawler

Obviously you don't read the stock threads, many threads have been going on about this for the last 12 months, maybe spend some time out of general chat.
Not being funny, but honestly we have been saying nickel is the boom commodity for ages.
Check the nickel threads, MCR, WSA, NIC etc


----------



## rederob

sptrawler said:


> Obviously you don't read the stock threads, many threads have been going on about this for the last 12 months, maybe spend some time out of general chat.
> Not being funny, but honestly we have been saying nickel is the boom commodity for ages.
> Check the nickel threads, MCR, WSA, NIC etc



I don't read a lot of the threads so thanks for mentioning the nickel equities you are following at ASF.
My post was very specific to a possible *reason *for this massive decline over an extremely short period'

It's one thing to say something is generally bullish, but it's another again to see something which has not been apparent - ie. different from the relatively "steady" LME inventory drawdowns:
	

		
			
		

		
	



In March this year I posted here at ASF general overview comments on the most traded metals, including nickel, as I watch commodities broadly rather than every metal-specific equity.
Most of the traded metals are near or at 5-year LME inventory lows with little sign of trends in recovery.
Low inventories are no guarantee of metals prices lifting higher, and zinc is an excellent case in point.
And my final point on nickel is that "fundamentals" - using LME inventories as a proxy - were not responsible for the 2 September spike in Oz nickel equities, and have not been reflected by an increase in the spot price:


----------



## sptrawler

There is only about one month's supply on the London metal exchange, most of the other materials required for battery production are in surplus.
The shortfall in nickel is due to mines being closed and Indonesia announcing the closure of its mines early 2020, so the price is rocketing on the expectations of further shortages.
Apologies for short answer, phones have small keys and I have big finger's.


----------



## rederob

Adding to the nickel for EVs theme is this recent graphic:


Presently around 4% of nickel is diverted to the battery sector as a whole, as distinct from solely EVs.
My belief is that the chart above is way too conservative in outyears.
First, the counter intuitive is occurring with luxury vehicles, which have been very quick off the mark to get new models out as EVs.  There's a few reasons.
First, many are not just high end, they were also very fast.  But Teslas are literally outpacing them, so that's one aspect of appeal that is now lost.
Secondly, as Teslas have proven, EVs can pack a massive amount of technology into a vehicle that gives you the option of almost carefree driving in luxury, or maxing out the responsiveness of the car at "normal" speeds.
Thirdly, and perhaps the biggie, luxury car owners don't like losing a fortune on their new purchase, and the resale vale of ICE luxury vehicles is extremely likely to plummet.
At the "average" buyer level, and perhaps more speculatively, I have a suspicion the "iphone" effect will bite more quickly than most anticipate.  That is, EVs are not just a novelty, they are a step change in technology *AND *safety.  Furthermore, while they might be a fair bit more expensive now as an upfront purchase, running costs will compensate if you hold the cars for a longer term than usual.  All the more compelling when the car you have today will have a poor resale value in a few years time.
At the bus fleet level, China leads the world in electrification.  Given western world concerns about CO2 emissions, it's not too hard for local municipalities and governments to mandate CO2-free public transport.
I'm ambivalent on the heavy vehicle sector as I see hydrogen as the better option down the track; a bit like a re-run of the Beta v's VHS competition which saw VHS win because it ran longer and cost less.

Back onto metal supply, its producers of nickel sulphide concentrate for the EV battery sector which will outperform in coming years, and this is not the type of nickel that has been coming out of Indonesia or the Philippines.  I see a reasonable chance that this distinction will see nickel prices divide for stainless steel supply and EV batteries respectively.


----------



## Padowan

rederob said:


> Adding to the nickel for EVs theme is this recent graphic:
> 
> 
> Presently around 4% of nickel is diverted to the battery sector as a whole, as distinct from solely EVs.
> My belief is that the chart above is way too conservative in outyears.
> First, the counter intuitive is occurring with luxury vehicles, which have been very quick off the mark to get new models out as EVs.  There's a few reasons.
> First, many are not just high end, they were also very fast.  But Teslas are literally outpacing them, so that's one aspect of appeal that is now lost.
> Secondly, as Teslas have proven, EVs can pack a massive amount of technology into a vehicle that gives you the option of almost carefree driving in luxury, or maxing out the responsiveness of the car at "normal" speeds.
> Thirdly, and perhaps the biggie, luxury car owners don't like losing a fortune on their new purchase, and the resale vale of ICE luxury vehicles is extremely likely to plummet.
> At the "average" buyer level, and perhaps more speculatively, I have a suspicion the "iphone" effect will bite more quickly than most anticipate.  That is, EVs are not just a novelty, they are a step change in technology *AND *safety.  Furthermore, while they might be a fair bit more expensive now as an upfront purchase, running costs will compensate if you hold the cars for a longer term than usual.  All the more compelling when the car you have today will have a poor resale value in a few years time.
> At the bus fleet level, China leads the world in electrification.  Given western world concerns about CO2 emissions, it's not too hard for local municipalities and governments to mandate CO2-free public transport.
> I'm ambivalent on the heavy vehicle sector as I see hydrogen as the better option down the track; a bit like a re-run of the Beta v's VHS competition which saw VHS win because it ran longer and cost less.
> 
> Back onto metal supply, its producers of nickel sulphide concentrate for the EV battery sector which will outperform in coming years, and this is not the type of nickel that has been coming out of Indonesia or the Philippines.  I see a reasonable chance that this distinction will see nickel prices divide for stainless steel supply and EV batteries respectively.





rederob said:


> Adding to the nickel for EVs theme is this recent graphic:
> 
> 
> Presently around 4% of nickel is diverted to the battery sector as a whole, as distinct from solely EVs.
> My belief is that the chart above is way too conservative in outyears.
> First, the counter intuitive is occurring with luxury vehicles, which have been very quick off the mark to get new models out as EVs.  There's a few reasons.
> First, many are not just high end, they were also very fast.  But Teslas are literally outpacing them, so that's one aspect of appeal that is now lost.
> Secondly, as Teslas have proven, EVs can pack a massive amount of technology into a vehicle that gives you the option of almost carefree driving in luxury, or maxing out the responsiveness of the car at "normal" speeds.
> Thirdly, and perhaps the biggie, luxury car owners don't like losing a fortune on their new purchase, and the resale vale of ICE luxury vehicles is extremely likely to plummet.
> At the "average" buyer level, and perhaps more speculatively, I have a suspicion the "iphone" effect will bite more quickly than most anticipate.  That is, EVs are not just a novelty, they are a step change in technology *AND *safety.  Furthermore, while they might be a fair bit more expensive now as an upfront purchase, running costs will compensate if you hold the cars for a longer term than usual.  All the more compelling when the car you have today will have a poor resale value in a few years time.
> At the bus fleet level, China leads the world in electrification.  Given western world concerns about CO2 emissions, it's not too hard for local municipalities and governments to mandate CO2-free public transport.
> I'm ambivalent on the heavy vehicle sector as I see hydrogen as the better option down the track; a bit like a re-run of the Beta v's VHS competition which saw VHS win because it ran longer and cost less.
> 
> Back onto metal supply, its producers of nickel sulphide concentrate for the EV battery sector which will outperform in coming years, and this is not the type of nickel that has been coming out of Indonesia or the Philippines.  I see a reasonable chance that this distinction will see nickel prices divide for stainless steel supply and EV batteries respectively.




Rederob I am also bullish nickel, the recently announced unrefined nickel ore export ban out of Indonesia at 31 Dec caught a lot of producers by surprise, tsingshan the worlds largest stainless steel producer sources a significant proportion of its required nickel from Indonesia, it has major investments in the production of nickel pig iron from laterite deposits in Indonesia 
There has been speculation that it has been buying nickel direct from LME over the last month with a targeted volume of between 30 to 80 Kt of nickel.
I’m looking forward to the EV revolution but stainless steel still currently represents about 70% of annual nickel consumption.
Nickel is used in the cathode component of EV batteries in the form of nickel sulphate. Nickel sulphate can be made from a range of nickel products including those sourced from HPAL laterite projects, HPAL laterite projects are more capital intensive and technically challenging to run so generally require a higher incentive price to motivate development over traditional nickel sulphide deposits which produce nickel in a concentrate. There are a lot more known undeveloped nickel laterite projects in the world than sulphide projects.
The batteries in an EV are a significant percentage of cost; current EV uptake is slow due to high sticker price, lack of  charging infrastructure and performance. As the production of EV batteries is optimised battery producers will look to control supply chains to manage costs; maybe direct investment or ownership of nickel companies, like happened in lithium. Otherwise if nickel price goes too high it could be substituted in the future for a different battery chemistry
If it wasn’t for the US - China trade war I would think nickel would be in an even stronger position


----------



## tinhat

I went long on nickel miners and prospectors a few months ago. I hold ARL (talk about volatile I was up 80% in 72 hours and am now underwater), CZI (disappointing market sentiment due to delay in PFS), IGO (Gold an nickel producer), MCR (volatile, done OK trading this), SGQ and WSA.


----------



## Padowan

tinhat said:


> I went long on nickel miners and prospectors a few months ago. I hold ARL (talk about volatile I was up 80% in 72 hours and am now underwater), CZI (disappointing market sentiment due to delay in PFS), IGO (Gold an nickel producer), MCR (volatile, done OK trading this), SGQ and WSA.



Good luck tin hat
I see the LME nickel stockpile closed at 98kt nickel on Friday, the lowest since April 2012.

From 16 September 2019 the LME nickel stockpile has fallen by 68Kt or 41%, that’s got to be good fundamentals or am I missing something?


----------



## tinhat

Padowan said:


> Good luck tin hat
> I see the LME nickel stockpile closed at 98kt nickel on Friday, the lowest since April 2012.
> 
> From 16 September 2019 the LME nickel stockpile has fallen by 68Kt or 41%, that’s got to be good fundamentals or am I missing something?




Here is what I have picked up from my reading. E&OE.

- 75% of nickel production is used for stainless steel production. Use of nickel by the stainless steel industry follows a commodity cycle which sees the building up an running down inventories. Nickel bottomed in 2016, and nickel has rallied well this year, but to a large extent this is just reversion to the mean through the cycle.

- Indonesia has decided to bring forward its planned ban on nickel ore exports. Indonesia, through Chinese investment, is developing nickel pig iron smelter production (high pressure acid leaching process used to smelt nickel pig iron from nickel laterite ore). The economics of large scale high pressure acid leaching smelting that can produce nickel sulphate suitable for the EV battery industry is something that is debated amongst analysts. Some say it is too high and nickel sulphate miners will have a cost advantage. Others say that it will be become cost competitive.

- It is said that reserves of nickel laterite ore in the Philippines are running down.

- It's been reported that Tsingshang, the world's largest producer of stainless steel, is behind the recent plummet in LME stocks and that they are actually arranging for physical delivery of the nickel they have purchased from the LME. In practice, the LME stockpile represents a small portion of the amount of nickel held in inventory by industry, but obviously the run down of LME stocks gains the attention of the market.

- The electric vehicle thematic is no doubt exciting the market. Currently the preferred lithium iron battery chemistry being used in EVs uses more nickel than lithium or cobalt. EVs are copper and nickel dense. Nickel increases energy density of Lithium ion batteries which means EVs can store more energy by weight and go further between recharging.

- Bullish estimates predict that within a decade EV sales will reach parity with internal combustion engine vehicle sales and by 2050 half of the world's road transport fleet (car, bike, bus, haulage) will be EV. Nickel bulls see this as a seismic shift in the market for nickel.

- Of all the metals needed by the EV revolution, Nickel is the one forecast to be in deficit in the next couple of years.

- Despite the above, there are many options for EV battery chemistry. If nickel becomes too expensive, EV manufacturers may adopt less nickel intensive chemistry. Currently there is a huge investment going into Lithium iron battery mega factories globally that are gearing up around high Nickel density batteries but that could change.

- Liquid hydrogen may develop into a potential competitor to Lithium iron batteries for EVs in time.

- The recent run up in nickel prices is likely to see an increase in recycling and recovery of nickel in the short term. In the medium to long run recovery and reuse of nickel and other metals from Lithium iron batteries will form a significant supply into the manufacturing of new batteries.

- IMHO, the outlook, from what I have read, in the next couple of years looks bright, but markets never move in a straight line. Some of the nickel stock have run hard recently and are displaying some volatility.

- There is a lot of nickel in the earth's crust and a lot of nickel sulphide sitting close to surface in WA. Like all commodities its just a question of what market price is needed to bring new production on-stream and what price prospective miners should use to determine the economics of their prospective production. Right now a lot of Australian producers are bringing their mines out of care and maintenance and ramping up production again.

- In summary in the short term demand exceeds supply. It is predicted that this will persist into the medium to long term on the assumption that EV battery chemistry will remain nickel intensive as per the current global wave of battery mega factory ramp up.


----------



## sptrawler

Great summation Tinhat, you were very perceptive to mention the possibility of other options for E.V's and batteries in general, there is mega bucks being poured into battery design and development.
So as you mention it is a good bet at present, but what the future holds who knows, I have seen nickel boom and bust several times over my lifetime so IMO it is always one to keep a close eye on when buying but especially when holding.


----------



## rederob

*Metal News - Published on Wed, 16 Oct 2019*
Indonesian Government aims to build 31 nickel smelters by 2022, with 20 projected to open next year to help the production of electric car components. Head of the mineral exploration business at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Mr Andri Budhiman said at a recent seminar that with many smelters going into operation, there was no concern about the supply of electric car components. Mr Budhiman explained that Indonesia’s proven nickel reserves of 698 million tonnes could only guarantee the supply for refining facilities for 7.3 years. Meanwhile, the country’s estimated nickel reserves stand at 2.8 billion tonnes.

MEMR Regulation No. 4/2009 prescribes that mining companies are required to process and refine raw materials to raise added values. Then, the minimum processing and refining limits for metal minerals, non-metals and rocks have been regulated by the MEMR Regulations No. 5/2017 and No.25/2018.


----------



## rederob

LME warehouse data is always a few days old in real terms as they do not have live inventories.  So the most recent data is a few days out,
More importantly, it shows "closing" inventory, or total metal held.  This number excludes
Cancelled Tonnage.
Typically cancelled tonnage is a small fraction of what's still in the warehouse.  However, in the case of nickel at the moment, it is not.
Nickel warehouse have 42,594 tonnes sitting as "cancelled" with only 52,068 available for future purchase.
So in the near term nickel's fundamentals could see a lot more upside.
The demand response is in the wind as more mines are coming out of mothballs... but we ain't there yet.


----------



## rederob

COVID-19 might give unaffected Australian producers a lift as the Philippines suspends half its output.
Separately, Indonesia might have difficulty in funding their longer term plans to ramp up output if their mining sector is decimated as a result the economic impacts on local companies.
COVID-19 could be that cloud which has a silver lining for many Australian base metal producers, and with the top 2 nickel producing nations likely to be heavily affected (and them being at China's doorstep), nickel price increases could be disproportionately affected.
A good space to watch.


----------



## qldfrog

Nickel is known as the mineral of choice for war...


----------



## The Triangle

I still think the Aussie nickel plays are one of the big risks.   The overwhelming majority of nickel is used in stainless and that's not exactly a high performer in bad economic times.  (You would think 99% goes to Tesla batteries reading what others say).   Lots of SS used in cars - but not going to be seeing people buy new cars - especially electric ones when oil is this low.  I think the A$ with strengthen vs USD as well to offset any nickel gains which could occur once the world sees Australia is far better shape than everyone else.   People have been waiting a decade plus for nickel to rocket up.   It wont.   Indo nickel ban and electric cars are irrelevant.


----------



## sptrawler

The Triangle said:


> I still think the Aussie nickel plays are one of the big risks.   The overwhelming majority of nickel is used in stainless and that's not exactly a high performer in bad economic times.  (You would think 99% goes to Tesla batteries reading what others say).   Lots of SS used in cars - but not going to be seeing people buy new cars - especially electric ones when oil is this low.  I think the A$ with strengthen vs USD as well to offset any nickel gains which could occur once the world sees Australia is far better shape than everyone else.   People have been waiting a decade plus for nickel to rocket up.   It wont.   Indo nickel ban and electric cars are irrelevant.



The price of nickel has taken a real hammering, since the outbreak, as you say demand for stainless and vehicles has taken a real hit.
The high cost producers will be finding it difficult to make money at $5USD/lb, hopefully it rebounds when the World economy kicks off, but when that will be who knows?


----------



## The Triangle

Nickel never really came back after the gfc like a lot of people expected.   I think $5 -$6 is the new standard.   Low grade low tonne mines wont cut it as investment grade.   

We now see Panoramic shelving things - which was entirely predictable before corona.    Will mincore and wsa be next to can their projects?  Or will their mines hit production for a recovery?    I still believe that there is no long-term investment money to be made in WA nickel until there is massive consolidation.    If they could merge 3 of these players in to one - 5 to 10 m saved in exec and board fees.   All the support services would be combined for a few million in savings.    Capex and production profiles could be staged and optimized.

Interesting to know if PAN will be in the legal hot seat for rejecting the igo offer.


----------



## sptrawler

The Triangle said:


> Nickel never really came back after the gfc like a lot of people expected.   I think $5 -$6 is the new standard.   Low grade low tonne mines wont cut it as investment grade.
> 
> We now see Panoramic shelving things - which was entirely predictable before corona.    Will mincore and wsa be next to can their projects?  Or will their mines hit production for a recovery?    I still believe that there is no long-term investment money to be made in WA nickel until there is massive consolidation.    If they could merge 3 of these players in to one - 5 to 10 m saved in exec and board fees.   All the support services would be combined for a few million in savings.    Capex and production profiles could be staged and optimized.
> 
> Interesting to know if PAN will be in the legal hot seat for rejecting the igo offer.



PAN didnt reject the offer, IGO withdrew it after due dilligence, obviously a good move.
The producers around the goldfields IGO, WSA, MCR and BHP should be fine, established processing trains just  requiring demand to increase.
Which one would expect to happen, this speed hump has really put a damper on the short term outlook, but Im expecting demand to rise sharply in the next 12 to 18 months.
China has stated they are going to urbanise 100 million people in the next two years, BEVs will be pushed, to stimulate the car market IMO.
PAN really were between a rock and a hard place, in the Kimberlies, long haul to Wyndham port and a long drive to the new ore body. It was always going to be hard, but at $8/lb ok at $5 it is goodnight Irene.
Anyway just my thoughts.


----------



## peter2

Interesting price spikes in some nickel stocks last week.  MCR, NIC, SGQ, BSX.
Not supported by the major nickel producers, WSA, IGO.

Kitco price charts for nickel show a recent rally off yearly low.




Edit: Almost forgot to mention that Sth American production of nickel and other base metals have been significantly cut by corona virus outbreaks and subsequent lock downs of mining sites. (ie production cuts not just happening to iron ore producers)


----------



## sptrawler

peter2 said:


> Interesting price spikes in some nickel stocks last week.  MCR, NIC, SGQ, BSX.
> Not supported by the major nickel producers, WSA, IGO.
> 
> Kitco price charts for nickel show a recent rally off yearly low.
> 
> View attachment 105075
> 
> 
> Edit: Almost forgot to mention that Sth American production of nickel and other base metals have been significantly cut by corona virus outbreaks and subsequent lock downs of mining sites. (ie production cuts not just happening to iron ore producers)



It would be interesting to know what the LME reserve of nickel is, they seem to have stopped publishing it, but 6_12 months ago it was getting very low.


----------



## peter2

Kitco seems to have the LME charts. 

LME nickel stocks off the historic lows but have been stable in 2020 so far.


----------



## sptrawler

peter2 said:


> Kitco seems to have the LME charts.
> 
> LME nickel stocks off the historic lows but have been stable in 2020 so far.



Hi Peter, nickel is becoming an issue Elon Musk is giving it some airplay.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/musk-promises-giant-contract-for-efficiently-mined-nickel-1.1469461

It would also indicate, that the new battery technology he continually mentions, also is dependent on a high nickel content.
As he is calling for a 'Giant' contract, for a long period of time.


----------



## tinhat

Because of the age of my eyeballs, I use the enlarged Kitco charts:

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html
and for copper
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html

Nickel is so volatile and still mainly leveraged to the stainless steel industry cycle. I would not be surprised if we see a head and shoulders play out over the medium term (ie we see a retracement)


----------



## qldfrog

Nickel goes hand in hand with war cry.with the new cold war between US and China becoming warmer,i i s some good prospects for nickel.


----------



## sptrawler

BHP Kwinana refinery sulphate plant expansion looks close to finished.








						BHP nears completion of Nickel West plant - Australian Mining
					

BHP has confirmed that it will open its Nickel West sulphate plant in Western Australia this financial year after the development was delayed.




					www.australianmining.com.au
				




Also sounds as though the Kalgoorlie nickel smelter is to get a multi million dollar upgrade.








						News Wrap
					

BHP revs it up for Tesla-led nickel surge.




					www.miningmonthly.com


----------



## Value Collector

Elon musk begging miners to mine more nickel.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

> "Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and... go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way.”



ELON MUSK, TESLA INC.


> “The main trend is toward NMC,” Kaellenius said, referring to *nickel, manganese and cobalt*. “We saw a mix of 1:1:1 then we went to 6:2:2 and now some suppliers are even talking about 9:05:05,” Kaellenius said of the ratio of materials.



OLA KAELLENIUS, CEO DAIMLER


> “…the future will be electric in the passenger car world for sure. That’s pretty clear now. This train is moving. It’s gaining speed and getting momentum. We are preparing for this world. We will see a car that is emission-free basically.”



HERBERT DIESS, CEO VW


----------



## The Triangle

Value Collector said:


> Elon musk begging miners to mine more nickel.




Smart man.   Nickel demand is not good enough at the moment to justify these prices.    Hammer home the message and get all these companies to raise capital and then sink it in to marginal projects!   Why else would he be on about nickel?    He needs it as cheap as possible.   “The real limitation on Tesla growth is cell production at affordable price,” Musk said, 

Simple internet searches show nickel will finish the year in surplus, and will be in surplus next year, and surplus again the year after that.   Long-term fundamentals usually win out over hype.  BHP are talking about mid 2020s for nickel jump.  Europe is heading to lockdown again, the US will probably be in full civil war in a month.  

...At some stage over the next 50 years I might be correct about nickel falling...  Have not done well lately on predictions.   Tesla should just raise capital and buy BHP's nickel division and build a battery plant here in WA.


----------



## Value Collector

The Triangle said:


> Smart man.   Nickel demand is not good enough at the moment to justify these prices.    Hammer home the message and get all these companies to raise capital and then sink it in to marginal projects!   Why else would he be on about nickel?    He needs it as cheap as possible.   “The real limitation on Tesla growth is cell production at affordable price,” Musk said,
> 
> Simple internet searches show nickel will finish the year in surplus, and will be in surplus next year, and surplus again the year after that.   Long-term fundamentals usually win out over hype.  BHP are talking about mid 2020s for nickel jump.  Europe is heading to lockdown again, the US will probably be in full civil war in a month.
> 
> ...At some stage over the next 50 years I might be correct about nickel falling...  Have not done well lately on predictions.   Tesla should just raise capital and buy BHP's nickel division and build a battery plant here in WA.



Tesla are getting into lithium mining.
They also seem to think they have found a way to lower production costs of nickel refining.


----------



## sptrawler

Nickel has cracked $8 U.S/lb things could very well be on the move IMO.


----------



## sptrawler

More reports of the pending nickel shortage due to the E.V revolution.








						Nickel demand for EVs expected to shoot up over next 20 years
					

A report commissioned by the European Union forecasts nickel demand to grow globally by 2.6Mt Ni to 2040, up from only 92kt Ni in 2020.




					www.mining.com
				




Meanwhile Indonesia is getting on the front foot with nickel processing.








						Nickel price: Indonesia halts deep-sea mining disposal
					

The world’s biggest nickel producer has not officially banned deep sea tailings  but by not issuing new permits could delay planned projects.




					www.mining.com
				



From the article:
_Once the world’s biggest exporter of nickel, Indonesia banned ore exports last year amid efforts to develop a full nickel supply chain, starting from extraction, processing into metals and chemicals used in batteries, all the way to building EVs.

At least four high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants, which process nickel laterite into chemicals used in batteries, are being constructed in Indonesia led by Chinese investors. Most planned to dispose waste in the sea.

HPAL projects in Morowali, in Sulawesi, have decided to drop DST, said a source familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, an HPAL project in Obi Island is still waiting for the government’s decision._
_China-led investment_​_Despite obstacles, Indonesia is expecting investment in nickel processing to double from 2020 to $35 billion by 2033, led by Chinese stainless steel producers and battery makers.

The country also signed a $9.8 billion EV battery deal with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution in December.

Indonesia has also been wooing Tesla, which has been looking to find reliable sources of nickel globally after warning the current cost of batteries remains a hurdle to growth. Tesla has sent an investment proposal and the government will meet with the company next week, Septian Hario Seto, the deputy head for investment and mining coordination said on Friday_.


----------



## rederob

*The big picture - 25 year nickel price chart:*



*And the finer detail since 2 September 2020 spike:*


(ps, even gold has a silver lining today)


----------



## barney

Brilliant Thread name!!  Pity @BREND is no longer with us apparently?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

sptrawler said:


> _....At least four high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants, which process nickel laterite into chemicals used in batteries, are being constructed in Indonesia led by Chinese investors. *Most planned to dispose waste in the sea.*_ .....



this is what you're up against


----------



## sptrawler

Dona Ferentes said:


> this is what you're up against



Yes, the only saving grace is magnetite nickel is difficult to make into battery grade, but quality that hasn't worried them in the past. At least it may differentiate the BEV market i.e battery quality (cycle life, storage capacity etc)


----------



## rederob

sptrawler said:


> Yes, the only saving grace is magnetite nickel is difficult to make into battery grade, but quality that hasn't worried them in the past. At least it may differentiate the BEV market i.e battery quality (cycle life, storage capacity etc)



This article gives further insights.  It was interesting to note that only 2 major nickel finds have been made in the past 10 years. 
I know that Western Areas is a nickel sulphide producer so there us a chance its ore might attract a premium as BEV numbers ramp up. 
WSA's announcement today was somewhat flat, however it has a strong growth pipeline and looks well placed to supply into increased demand in coming years.


----------



## peter2

Nickel producers and explorers were sold off hard today as the price of nickel fell overnight. Seems nickel supply at the LME warehouse has increased rapidly (ref Kitco). Good, as I've been waiting for a significant dip to start buying nickel producers and some soon to be producers. 

*WSA:* Has too many price spikes for me. A tough one to trade.
*PAN*: Started nibbling at 0.13 today. 
*NIC:* Bought some at 1.30. 
*MCR*: I like it under 1.00 
*BSX*: I'm interested down at 0.40
*POS:* Too many shares issued, spec trade only with perfect setup.


----------



## qldfrog

peter2 said:


> Nickel producers and explorers were sold off hard today as the price of nickel fell overnight. Seems nickel supply at the LME warehouse has increased rapidly (ref Kitco). Good, as I've been waiting for a significant dip to start buying nickel producers and some soon to be producers.
> 
> *WSA:* Has too many price spikes for me. A tough one to trade.
> *PAN*: Started nibbling at 0.13 today.
> *NIC:* Bought some at 1.30.
> *MCR*: I like it under 1.00
> *BSX*: I'm interested down at 0.40
> *POS:* Too many shares issued, spec trade only with perfect setup.



About nickel: New Caledonia is a key producer and Inco then Vale spent billions of USD..no typing mistake..billions  .creating the Goro processing center in the south of the usland.i was part of this project so my awareness .
Well this is all down the drain.the local politics in NC are such that the plant is down and has been for sale with no western buyer in his sane mind  jumping in.
I can see the whole lot bought by at a huge bargain by the Chineses once the island is "made independent from France"..and that nickel source becoming part of China domestic production.with a serious impact obviously on NC but also on nickel mining all over the world.
You can not have long term nickel analysis wo taking the NC factor into account
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel_mining_in_New_Caledonia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goro_mine
In a nutshell, an enormous production capacity which can be released in a few months if China takes over,with a let's call it, efficient policing in place.


----------



## peter2

A want to note the significant drop in the nickel price over the past few weeks. 




The drop is due to news that Tsingshan (large Indonesian nickel producer, Chinese owned) is about to supply 100,000t of nickel "matte" converted from lower quality nickel pig iron (NPI) to Chinese battery manufacturers. 

This lower quality nickel is more expensive to convert to higher quality nickel and has been avoided until now. Smelting of Ni-laterite ores is associated with some of the highest CO2 emissions in the industry.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

peter2 said:


> The drop is due to news that Tsingshan (large Indonesian nickel producer, Chinese owned) is about to supply 100,000t of nickel "matte" converted from lower quality nickel pig iron (NPI) to Chinese battery manufacturers.
> 
> This lower quality nickel is more expensive to convert to higher quality nickel and has been avoided until now. Smelting of Ni-laterite ores is associated with some of the highest CO2 emissions in the industry.



Key out-take ... don't buy Chinese Li-ion batteries?


----------



## peter2

Dona Ferentes said:


> Key out-take ... don't buy Chinese Li-ion batteries?




This is going to be the key problem for EV manufacturers. Pay more for ESG batteries or pay less for "dirty" ones. 
IMO profit usually decides, but will investor ESG activism influence mgt decisions?


----------



## rederob

peter2 said:


> This is going to be the key problem for EV manufacturers. Pay more for ESG batteries or pay less for "dirty" ones.
> IMO profit usually decides, but will investor ESG activism influence mgt decisions?



If the nickel content is not the same, then respective battery performances  will differ, so I suspect that battery manufacturers will be ensuring their brand remains favourable by ensuring the highest available quality of nickel is used.  
Anyway, this article gives some really good background on the issue.
On the topic of "brands and ESG," it's likely that only China will think little of the negative sentiment that attaches, as in the west it will be increasingly more difficult for miners/producers to get project financing.


----------



## sptrawler

Nickel price seems to be on a bit of a run, I wonder if the tightness of supply is beginning?








						MINING.COM
					

No 1 source of global mining news and opinion




					www.mining.com


----------



## peter2

It's interesting that many of the current nickel producers are seeing their share prices fall. I've been waiting to buy the dip but the dip is getting larger. I'm puzzled by the size of the fall in the share price of the Indonesian nickel producer *NIC*. *MCR, PAN* not going up. *WSA* stagnant.


----------



## sptrawler

peter2 said:


> It's interesting that many of the current nickel producers are seeing their share prices fall. I've been waiting to buy the dip but the dip is getting larger. I'm puzzled by the size of the fall in the share price of the Indonesian nickel producer *NIC*. *MCR, PAN* not going up. *WSA* stagnant.



It certainly is an interesting situation, when one would expect with all the rhetoric around BEV's and grid connected batteries, that there would be a rush to the materials required.
It is certainly confounding me, but I'm still holding.
One thought i have had, is many will think hydrogen is going to be the go to renewable, but that will take a long time IMO.
Batteries are going to definitely be the go to power source for normal cars, for quite some time, also home storage will definitely be batteries due to their convenience, maybe there is a lag between the science and the public's understanding.


----------



## qldfrog

sptrawler said:


> It certainly is an interesting situation, when one would expect with all the rhetoric around BEV's and grid connected batteries, that there would be a rush to the materials required.
> It is certainly confounding me, but I'm still holding.
> One thought i have had, is many will think hydrogen is going to be the go to renewable, but that will take a long time IMO.
> Batteries are going to definitely be the go to power source for normal cars, for quite some time, also home storage will definitely be batteries due to their convenience, maybe there is a lag between the science and the public's understanding.



could also be that money is realistic: EVs numbers overall are still negligible, and will be for probably at the minimum 5y.
In the coming 5 y, you can expect a crash..so if you really want nickel miners in your portfolio, get them at the next crash, in the meantime, buy Zoom or other crap stock, or trade cryptos


----------



## rederob

peter2 said:


> It's interesting that many of the current nickel producers are seeing their share prices fall. I've been waiting to buy the dip but the dip is getting larger. I'm puzzled by the size of the fall in the share price of the Indonesian nickel producer *NIC*. *MCR, PAN* not going up. *WSA* stagnant.



I have been watching LME and SFE stock levels .
Plenty nickel around so hard to see sustainably strong price rises for the time being.
I hold WSA, and they are probably going to stay stagnant until their new mine is producing.


----------



## sptrawler

It sounds as though Elon may have given the Indonesian nickel the flick, which will be good for Australian producers, it may all be a marketing ploy though with Elon things can change rapidly.








						Tesla to inject $1 billion annually into Australia – report
					

Australia set to benefit from Tesla's sales success, thanks to local mining standards.




					www.drive.com.au
				



*Tesla says it will spend more than $1 billion annually on raw materials sourced from Australian mining companies, *used to create batteries for its electric vehicles (EVs).
At a Minerals Council of Australia event in Canberra, Tesla chairwoman Robyn Denholm told the audience the electric car company was expecting to spend in excess of $1 billion on lithium, nickel, and other raw materials mined in Australia, according to the _Sydney Morning Herald._
Australia is rich in natural resources used in the production of EV batteries, but local mining companies attracted the US car maker due to their high standards in environmental, social, and corporate governance.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> It's interesting that many of the current nickel producers are seeing their share prices fall. I've been waiting to buy the dip but the dip is getting larger. I'm puzzled by the size of the fall in the share price of the Indonesian nickel producer *NIC*. *MCR, PAN* not going up. *WSA* stagnant.




maybe the last great buy-in opportunity ?








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## bk1

sptrawler said:


> It sounds as though Elon may have given the Indonesian nickel the flick, which will be good for Australian producers, it may all be a marketing ploy though with Elon things can change rapidly.



They are worried about supply of class 1 Nickel for battery production. This was announced just after Tsingshan Group informed the world that they had invented a new way to refine laterite nickel from deposits in Indonesia. Nickel price has still not recovered from that news.

As already stated, its highly energy intensive and i can see problems with passing an ESG test with potential auto makers...
I think Tesla is going to buy up as much high quality Nickel deposits required for the necessary scaling involved, there is simply not enough battery grade Nickel feed to go round.


----------



## sptrawler

bk1 said:


> They are worried about supply of class 1 Nickel for battery production. This was announced just after Tsingshan Group informed the world that they had invented a new way to refine laterite nickel from deposits in Indonesia. Nickel price has still not recovered from that news.
> 
> As already stated, its highly energy intensive and i can see problems with passing an ESG test with potential auto makers...
> I think Tesla is going to buy up as much high quality Nickel deposits required for the necessary scaling involved, there is simply not enough battery grade Nickel feed to go round.



I agree 100% with your reasoning, there is no point in trying to get cleaner vehicles, by using dirty product, it isng a good look.
The CC crew will be all over it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

sptrawler said:


> I agree 100% with your reasoning, there is no point in trying to get cleaner vehicles, by using dirty product, it isng a good look.
> The CC crew will be all over it.



What do you reckon are The Australian nickel stocks most likely to rise from Tesla interest in Australian miners. I'm a bit out of the loop on this metal atm. 

gg


----------



## bux2000

Garpal Gumnut said:


> What do you reckon are The Australian nickel stocks most likely to rise from Tesla interest in Australian miners. I'm a bit out of the loop on this metal atm.





Not sure if this helps








						Nickel stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide
					

In this report on ASX listed nickel stocks we look at which companies are exploring and mining the commodity, including a market overview of nickel demand.




					smallcaps.com.au
				




A lot to choose from I hold VMY CNJ not that I know anything.

IMO Copper is another one 💡 








						How Much Copper is in an Electric Vehicle?
					

Have you ever wondered how much copper is in an electric vehicle? This infographic shows the metal's properties as well as the quantity of copper used.




					www.visualcapitalist.com
				




In a recent post by @ducati916 Ford sold more electric Mustangs than petrol in the first quarter of 2021 .....what is the world coming too, I can only presume there is a vroom vroom button on the dash. They will be making electric Bentleys next. 









						Bentley Continental Is a $488K Sacrifice on the Electric Conversion Shrine
					

Sure, breathing new life into old classics is much easier with an electric drivetrain than a conventional one. Sure, it’s trendy to be the owner of...




					www.autoevolution.com
				




My point being it is not only Tesla looking to Australia for electric car componentry (Lithium, carbon, copper, tin etc. ........Oh and carbon fibre shame about recycling that, perhaps we could  just burn it to generate power in order to charge all our electric vehicles.









						How Is Carbon Fiber Made?
					

Carbon fiber, a lightweight and useful material, is manufactured through precise processes. Learn how carbon fiber is made.




					www.thoughtco.com
				




bux


----------



## peter2

Joules MM1 said:


> maybe the last great buy-in opportunity ?







The price of nickel has been slowly rising since the unsettling news earlier in the year. It seems that whenever China tries to depress rising commodity prices that it's a good buy the dip opportunity. Currently China is trying to lower the copper price by releasing copper from their strategic stockpiles. 

Good day for the ASX listed nickel producers *PAN, MCR, NIC, WSA*.


----------



## divs4ever

will need to be a miracle  day today for PAN and WSA for  they both have been underwater for me for years 

 was hoping to rescue the cash investment in MCR ( and keep a few shares  to let run ) but maybe not today ( but it got real close )

 i am of the view it is the $US plunging in real terms that is lifting commodities , but time will tell


----------



## Value Collector

peter2 said:


> View attachment 127740
> 
> 
> The price of nickel has been slowly rising since the unsettling news earlier in the year. It seems that whenever China tries to depress rising commodity prices that it's a good buy the dip opportunity. Currently China is trying to lower the copper price by releasing copper from their strategic stockpiles.
> 
> Good day for the ASX listed nickel producers *PAN, MCR, NIC, WSA*.



The only real cure for high commodity prices is increased supply, and the best trigger to increase supply is higher prices, when China tries to suppress prices all that does is deter people from investing in new supply, so ultimately it has the opposite effect, and creates higher prices.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> View attachment 127740
> 
> 
> The price of nickel has been slowly rising since the unsettling news earlier in the year. It seems that whenever China tries to depress rising commodity prices that it's a good buy the dip opportunity. Currently China is trying to lower the copper price by releasing copper from their strategic stockpiles.
> 
> Good day for the ASX listed nickel producers *PAN, MCR, NIC, WSA*.




when governing bodies (in this case the big cheese) impose a limit-up, price will go to that limit, cept they didnt give  a limit...
so, yep, that's a hey gang moment


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> will need to be a miracle  day today for PAN and WSA for  they both have been underwater for me for years
> 
> was hoping to rescue the cash investment in MCR ( and keep a few shares  to let run ) but maybe not today ( but it got real close )
> 
> i am of the view it is the $US plunging in real terms that is lifting commodities , but time will tell



Panoramic have finally closed in on their Savanah North deposit, that should be good news, the night is always darkest just before dawn, as they say. 
6m shares traded today, closed at 17c, it isn't anyware near their hay days, but they haven't been producing much either. Whether they get back up to the dizzy heights without Langfranchi who knows, but at least they are now into a decent ore body.








						Panoramic, Primero and Barminco get to work on restarting Savannah nickel operation - International Mining
					

Barminco and Primero benefit from Panoramic's restart decision at Savannah Nickel Operation in Western Australia




					im-mining.com


----------



## divs4ever

has been a l-o-n-g night for me at PAN , averaging down didn't work ( it finally has at MCR )

 PAN still done 65% for me while WSA is down 56% for me .... and MCR is up 128% for .. not that much of a difference is there ??

 as a comparison BHP is up 77% ( not counting the bonus S32 ) ( and about the same effort in averaging down in all 4 shares )


----------



## Tropico

Nickel USD19480, up 3.22%. looks promising for Nickel miners on Monday.


----------



## divs4ever

i have an order in to reduce MCR   , but might edge it a little higher

 i am still cautious on battery tech  , i hold RFX ( very much in the red ) and watch AVL , iam not convinced lithium tech is the answer to all problems ( ESPECIALLY if it become widely used )  

 PS i also hold WES which has some exposure


----------



## greggles

Nickel at $US19,833/T and at seven year highs.  It's only a matter of time until it's over the psychological $US20,000/T barrier. Nickel stocks looking good with the bull run far from over IMO.




LME Warehouse Stocks Declining


----------



## sptrawler

Nickel cracked US $9/lb, things are heading in the right direction. a lot of our producers quote production costs in $/lb from memory.


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> Nickel cracked US $9/lb, things are heading in the right direction. a lot of our producers quote production costs in $/lb from memory.




This Scoping Study was based on $7.50 US$/lb. No wonder it's gone para.


----------



## divs4ever

Western Australia takes step-up in battery chemicals production​








						Western Australia takes step-up in battery chemicals production
					

Western Australia is preparing to take a bigger slice of the booming global battery market, forecast to grow to $150 billion by 2030, as it moves beyond mining lithium and nickel into chemical processing.  Three big battery chemicals plants are set to come on line in coming months, while...




					au.finance.yahoo.com
				




 blah , blah , blah 

 if it was viable despite all the red-tape , WES  would have had a  project in the planning ( say scoop up BCI  and start from there )

 WES already grabbed Kidman Resources so it IS interested in the sector 

 and SVW    might have made bigger efforts  , than just a major stake in BCI

 the local cash is there ( in WA ) all you need is the viability


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> Western Australia takes step-up in battery chemicals production​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Western Australia takes step-up in battery chemicals production
> 
> 
> Western Australia is preparing to take a bigger slice of the booming global battery market, forecast to grow to $150 billion by 2030, as it moves beyond mining lithium and nickel into chemical processing.  Three big battery chemicals plants are set to come on line in coming months, while...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> au.finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> blah , blah , blah
> 
> if it was viable despite all the red-tape , WES  would have had a  project in the planning ( say scoop up BCI  and start from there )
> 
> WES already grabbed Kidman Resources so it IS interested in the sector
> 
> and SVW    might have made bigger efforts  , than just a major stake in BCI
> 
> the local cash is there ( in WA ) all you need is the viability



The really interesting part is, the BP refinery, which adjoins the lithium hydroxide plant and nickel wests battery quality processing plant, is closing. 
So it would make perfect sense to build a battery giga factory there.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

It's interesting with the '_rush to EV'_ end users (or ESG, or whatever) are needing to green up (green wash; greenmail) their credentials, and the supply lines, or the investors still won't tick that box.

BHP, for example, with Nickel West, is eyeing several locations for a 40 to 50 megawatt wind farm close to its nickel mining operations in the northern Goldfields region of WA.  Last week, Nickel West announced a deal with TransAlta Energy to build a 27.4 megawatt solar farm at Mt Keith and a 10.7 megawatt solar farm and 10.1 megawatt battery at Leinster to displace diesel and gas generation.

It is the cost of doing business if you boost production by making  agreements with the likes of Tesla that include targets for reducing emissions in mining and processing.


----------



## divs4ever

Mining Magnate Standoff: The Race to Secure the Next ‘Critical’ Mineral​








						Mining Magnate Standoff: The Race to Secure the Next ‘Critical’ Mineral
					

Forget about the standoff between state premiers, the real drama is happening in the mining sector! If you haven’t already caught wind of the ongoing fracas, Andrew Forrest and Mike Henry are in quite the bitter battle at the moment.



					www.moneymorning.com.au
				




 now , of course there is a BIG difference  between the magnates  , one APPEARS to be funding the acquisition  using  a PERSONAL investment vehicle , and the other is using a very large corporation's war chest  for the funding

 having been an investor in several nickel miners in the last 10 years  , i would suggest nickel is NOT the place to be throwing new cash at  , surely other minerals with  a better history of profitable returns should be selected


 the world in normal times seems to exist quite happily without a heavy focus on nickel production  , now IF power costs could be maintained or even reduced  , maybe it would be a time for aluminum refining and use  , but of course that would ignore the current 'battery technology race '

 now given Andrew Forrest has also grabbed a holding in WSA , is he just opportunistically investing in likely take-over targets hoping for a nice profit when the take-over completes.

 ( i hold BHP , FMG and WSA )


----------



## Tropico

Nickel futures have a run at USD20000/tonne.


----------



## sptrawler

As we have said on numerous occasions, a lot of the hype around nickel, is driven by the hype around batteries.
 Here is an article on the current state of play with batteries, it all boils back to energy density and how important weight and size is to the application the battery is going to be used in .
https://www.canarymedia.com/article...hium-ion-batteries-battling-for-market-share/


----------



## Tropico

Seems to be holding above 20k, for now anyway:


One cannot argue the price.


----------



## greggles

Nickel prices continue to firm as the market continues to tighten. I think nickel is going to be the best performing base metal as we head towards 2022.









						Column: Shanghai squeeze revitalises flagging nickel market
					

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month nickel hit a seven-year high of $20,225 per tonne on Thursday morning and has a new-found spring in its step after collapsing in February.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## bk1

How to get round a possible "green Premium" on Nickel?
Indonesian Investment Minister talking about a ban or tax levy on products with nickel content of less than 70%.

"Indonesia’s processing industry is dominated by low-nickel content products such as nickel pig iron or ferronickel. It halted exports of unprocessed nickel ore last year to support its “downstream” supply-chain ambitions."

Probably find out Monday if it squeezes an already elevated Nickel price...


----------



## basilio

sptrawler said:


> As we have said on numerous occasions, a lot of the hype around nickel, is driven by the hype around batteries.
> Here is an article on the current state of play with batteries, it all boils back to energy density and how important weight and size is to the application the battery is going to be used in .
> https://www.canarymedia.com/article...hium-ion-batteries-battling-for-market-share/




Outstanding article. Well worth a quiet read to understand the range of alternatives in the battery industry,


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Recommendations from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), which guide the final list likely to be released by the Department of Interior later this month, show *nickel *and graphite should be added to the list of minerals deemed critical for the economic and national security of the US.

The USGS said in its report that greater reliance on foreign supplies and limited _end of life_ recycling, had “_elevated the risk of a supply disruption_” of critical minerals essential for both established and emerging technologies, and that recent events, including *trade disputes, resource nationalism, and the global coronavirus further highlight the risk of disruptions to the US economy and national security*.

The USGS identified supply chains where there was risk of a single point of failure (SPOF), naming nickel and graphite as minerals where this could be the case. Nickel is a key component in lithium ion batteries, used in electric vehicles and military technology.

_"Demand for nickel for use in lithium-ion batteries is currently only a small percentage of its total demand, but that demand is expected to grow markedly"_, the USGS report authors Nedal Nassar and Steven Fortier wrote.


----------



## Ann

Dona Ferentes said:


> _"Demand for nickel for use in lithium-ion batteries is currently only a small percentage of its total demand, but that demand is expected to grow markedly"_, the USGS report authors Nedal Nassar and Steven Fortier wrote.




I can't see too much negativity on the Nickel futures chart, nothing I can draw either way to make a positive or negative case currently.

A comment from Trading Economics tends to suggest a bit of caution to me in the short-term as I understand it....

"Nickel futures have been trading around the $18,000 a tonne level, the lowest since July amid concerns over demand from stainless steel mills due to power shortages in China. At the same time, the demand from the Chinese property sector, which accounts for about 10% of nickel demand, is seen falling due to looming debt crises following potential Evergrande insolvency. The global nickel market is forecast to move to a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in 2022 from a deficit of 134,000 tonnes in 2021, according to the International Nickel Study Group."


----------



## sptrawler

Ann said:


> I can't see too much negativity on the Nickel futures chart, nothing I can draw either way to make a positive or negative case currently.
> 
> A comment from Trading Economics tends to suggest a bit of caution to me in the short-term as I understand it....
> 
> "Nickel futures have been trading around the $18,000 a tonne level, the lowest since July amid concerns over demand from stainless steel mills due to power shortages in China. At the same time, the demand from the Chinese property sector, which accounts for about 10% of nickel demand, is seen falling due to looming debt crises following potential Evergrande insolvency. The global nickel market is forecast to move to a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in 2022 from a deficit of 134,000 tonnes in 2021, according to the International Nickel Study Group."



As with every resource Ann, it will be the low cost high quality producers, that will benefit from the current nickel bounce IMO.
Battery manufacturers will want reliable high quality spec nickel, for top end EV's, so as with anything research is paramount IMO.


----------



## qldfrog

Ann said:


> I can't see too much negativity on the Nickel futures chart, nothing I can draw either way to make a positive or negative case currently.
> 
> A comment from Trading Economics tends to suggest a bit of caution to me in the short-term as I understand it....
> 
> "Nickel futures have been trading around the $18,000 a tonne level, the lowest since July amid concerns over demand from stainless steel mills due to power shortages in China. At the same time, the demand from the Chinese property sector, which accounts for about 10% of nickel demand, is seen falling due to looming debt crises following potential Evergrande insolvency. The global nickel market is forecast to move to a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in 2022 from a deficit of 134,000 tonnes in 2021, according to the International Nickel Study Group."



And nice to see your posts back Ann


----------



## sptrawler

Interesting article on the state of play with battery materials.








						Electric vehicle surge hit by nickel shortage
					

A report out of Europe shows rising demand for metals in lithium-ion batteries could push up the prices of electric cars. Global demand for a precious




					www.drive.com.au
				



From the article:
Global demand for a precious metal necessary for advanced battery technology could push up the cost of electric vehicles, and slow the recent surge in sales. 
A report from Rystad Energy – a Norway-based consultancy firm – suggests international demand for nickel, an important metal in the makeup of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, will be close to 3.4 million tonnes by 2024.
This is an increase of 25 per cent on current demand with no new identified supply methods to meet this sudden increase in demand.
The use of nickel is a key element in determining the driving range of an electric vehicle.
Range anxiety is one of the main challenges facing electric vehicle and vehicle manufacturers are continuing to eke out extra kilometres through battery improvements.
According to the Rystad report, the shortage of nickel coupled with various policy settings by governments around the world to prioritise electric vehicle use, could result in an increase in the price of electric vehicles.


----------



## rederob

Nickel presently trading at a 10 year high:


Inventories are also dropping quickly:


BHP is likely to do well, anticipating around 90K tonnes in FY22.  Plus BHP has produced the first nickel sulphate crystals from its nickel sulphate plant at Kwinana.  The nickel sulphate plant is an Australian-first and will produce 100,000 tonnes of nickel sulphate per year when fully operational.  85% of BHP nickel goes to the EV market.


----------



## greggles

There is talk of a nickel squeeze as demand outpaces supply. Possible cuts to production in Brazil and the Phillipines as well as possible export cuts from Indonesia is putting upward pressure on prices. Nickel might just be the metal of 2022.









						The Commodities Feed: Bullish EIA report
					

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views




					think.ing.com
				






> Nickel surged by more than 4.5% yesterday and the LME 3M price touched an intraday high of US$21,235/t. In an interview on Tuesday, the Indonesian President said that the government wants to 'hit the brakes' on exporting raw materials. He mentioned the earlier ban on nickel ore exports and said that they may halt bauxite exports next year or 'something else'. He didn't mention nickel pig iron. However, earlier this year, there was speculation that Indonesia was looking at potentially banning nickel pig iron exports, sparking cocerns of a raw material squeeze for stainless steel mills outside of Indonesia. Nornickel said in a statement yesterday that production of all metals decreased in the first nine months due to the temporary suspension at three operations. Total production volume of saleable nickel and copper declined more than platinum group metals. However, the Russian producer reiterated its 2021 production guidance for nickel and copper to be unchanged. This would be 190-200kt for nickel and 335-355kt for copper in 2021. Brazilian miner Vale trimmed its production guidance for nickel from a prior projection of 200kt to 165-170kt. Moreover, nickel production from the Philippines is expected to be 10% lower than the annual average, due to frequent rainfalls and fewer vessels coming in, according to the CEO of Global Ferronickel.


----------



## Sean K

Back to $50k please.


----------



## peter2

There's going to be some consolidation amongst the nickel producers in Aust. There's already a lot of cross ownership. 
*IGO* is eying off *WSA,* who owns 20% *PAN*. Meanwhile A. Forrest's Wyloo is in a battle with *BHP* for a Canadian nickel resource. Regardless if it wins or loses Wyloo already owns some *MCR* and *WSA* (incl *PAN*).


----------



## Sean K

peter2 said:


> There's going to be some consolidation amongst the nickel producers in Aust. There's already a lot of cross ownership.
> *IGO* is eying off *WSA,* who owns 20% *PAN*. Meanwhile A. Forrest's Wyloo is in a battle with *BHP* for a Canadian nickel resource. Regardless if it wins or loses Wyloo already owns some *MCR* and *WSA* (incl *PAN*).




Didn't see those connections. Thanks for the heads up.


----------



## sptrawler

Interesting to see where nickel is going, is it a demand issue, or a supply issue?


----------



## Sean K

Nickel still has a way to go to some all time highs, although that blip about 35000 from Dec 06 to Jul 07 looks like an anomaly.


----------



## sptrawler

Nickel still looks as though it has legs.


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> Nickel still looks as though it has legs.
> 
> View attachment 136463
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 136464




Crikey, those supplies look horrible when demand is just going to grow and be locked in while there's hardly anything coming on. Same with Copper I guess.


----------



## sptrawler

The trend on nickel is still positive, for now nickel bulls will be happy.





Interesting article from last month on the state of play with nickel.








						Nickel price buoyed by strong demand, dwindling stocks
					

Nickel prices held near their highest in more than two months on Monday, boosted by demand from the electric vehicle battery sector lowering stocks held in London Metal Exchange (LME) approved warehouses.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> The trend on nickel is still positive, for now nickel bulls will be happy.
> View attachment 137295
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting article from last month on the state of play with nickel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nickel price buoyed by strong demand, dwindling stocks
> 
> 
> Nickel prices held near their highest in more than two months on Monday, boosted by demand from the electric vehicle battery sector lowering stocks held in London Metal Exchange (LME) approved warehouses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com




Battery metals have only one way to go in the short term I think. I've been waiting for a correction in lithium to go a bit more in, but it just keeps going. Must be a time when supply catches up with demand for Li, Ni, Co at some stage. Haven't seen a decent analysis of the sector that points to a nexus when that will occur though.


----------



## sptrawler

@peter2 it might be worth doing some charting analysis on nickel, it seems to be ready to break through US$11/lb from memory US$5-6 is where Australia's miners start making real money. Just a thought.


----------



## Sean K

Let's go for an April 07 high during this run. Thanks.


----------



## rederob

Kitco had it over $11/lb last night:


And for the month:


Meanwhile LME warehouses have more than half of their stock committed for the first time in years:


China's SFE warehouses have a tad over 3k tonnes available and steady outflows continue daily.
A takeway from this trend is that lithium ion batteries for EVs with nickel content are going to cost a lot more than lithium iron phosphate batteries, and it may steer away some of the intending battery manufacturers to the cheaper product, thereby going some way to addressing the present supply squeeze.


----------



## sptrawler

The thing is ATM in the EV uptake curve, energy density i.e range, is still a huge selling point, over time as the public becomes adjusted to E.V's maybe not. But for the moment?


----------



## rederob

sptrawler said:


> The thing is ATM in the EV uptake curve, energy density i.e range, is still a huge selling point, over time as the public becomes adjusted to E.V's maybe not. But for the moment?



LFP batteries don't mind going from fully charged to dead flat, whereas lithium ternary batteries wouldn't last long if such cycles were regular.  Also, if you are wanting a used EV's battery for a home battery, then LFPs are a better option due to a cycle life about four times greater.  But yes, for sheer power and relative lightness lithium ternary batteries are the go.  So Tesla's Plaid and Cybertrucks will definitely consume decent amounts of nickel, and therefore so will every high performance EV.

Changing the topic to nickel uses, this long read covers many of the areas of nickel use - aside from the obvious - which people generally never think about.  So as quality lifestyles get more important in future, nickel will play an increasingly important role.


----------



## sptrawler

rederob said:


> LFP batteries don't mind going from fully charged to dead flat, whereas lithium ternary batteries wouldn't last long if such cycles were regular.  Also, if you are wanting a used EV's battery for a home battery, then LFPs are a better option due to a cycle life about four times greater.  But yes, for sheer power and relative lightness lithium ternary batteries are the go.  So Tesla's Plaid and Cybertrucks will definitely consume decent amounts of nickel, and therefore so will every high performance EV.
> 
> Changing the topic to nickel uses, this long read covers many of the areas of nickel use - aside from the obvious - which people generally never think about.  So as quality lifestyles get more important in future, nickel will play an increasingly important role.



Yes I know, the son has gone off grid, he and I have been over it endlessly, eventually decided on LFP batteries(actually BYD) for the reasons you mention.

I was more referring to perceptions, where a Tesla model three long range and a Tesla model 3 normal range, might be just the battery chemistry, at this moment in time range may be a major deciding factor, in the future once E.V's are mainstream it may not be so.

I guess it is the same as when solar HWS came out, everyone installed a 300litre two collector system, even if they were a retired couple.
Practical application of common sense, isn't a strong point in humans, you only have to read what some on a stock forum write.

I once called out a person who sold a multi million dollar programme to a company where I was employed , for just selling a software package of common sense, " absolutely true" he said, "it is one of the rarest commodities on earth".
I thought touch'e, If the management is prepared to try and buy it, rather than employ people with it, more fool them.

In 20 years time they may well have a small city car, with collision avoidance 8G software and a 70Klm range battery that will get you there and back from anyware in Sydney for $5k.

If there is zero% chance of an accident, they could make them out of recycled plastic with a cpu and an electric motor, you put in the destination drag your fat ar$e into the passenger seat and get your daily programming from the SMH.

Meanwhile you listen to the dulcet tones of Waleed telling you how fortunate and underserving you are, they will come equiped with a remote birch branch that whips your back on the way to work, because you are so fortunate to have a job, while others have to languish at home watching t.v.
Yep the future is starting to look like a great place. 🤣


----------



## sptrawler

A good article on E.V battery materials.








						Global EV sales jumped in 2021, as did deployment of high nickel battery chemistries
					

Adamas Intelligence reports that 54% of battery capacity deployed onto roads globally in new plug-in electric vehicles was powered by high nickel cathode chemistries.




					www.mining.com


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> A good article on E.V battery materials.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Global EV sales jumped in 2021, as did deployment of high nickel battery chemistries
> 
> 
> Adamas Intelligence reports that 54% of battery capacity deployed onto roads globally in new plug-in electric vehicles was powered by high nickel cathode chemistries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mining.com




I was wondering what was going to win out in the EV battery markets. Li or Ni/Co. Seems both are going to be required going forward.


----------



## sptrawler

Sean K said:


> I was wondering what was going to win out in the EV battery markets. Li or Ni/Co. Seems both are going to be required going forward.



Yep, not everyone buys cheap and cheerful, or everyone would be running around in a Mitsubishi Mirage.


----------



## sptrawler

Nickel is definitely having a run, the Aussie producers will be well in the black.


----------



## rederob

Overnight $12/lb was breached:


SFE and LME warehouses have a little over 50K tonnes of nickel available and outflows, albeit low, continue to outpace inflows on a regular weekly basis.  To say the market is tight is an understatement as SFE's 3k tonnes could disappear in a flash.
As you can see from the chart below nickel prices skyrocket on demand squeezes so the race to another all time record high is underway.


----------



## rederob

Well, days later and $13/lb has been breached:


Not much more needs to be said.  This is craziness!


----------



## peter2

rederob said:


> Not much more needs to be said. This is craziness!




Agreed, but when will the insanity stop?  I've got copper, some lithium but no nickel currently. I don't want to chase these higher prices but they keep going higher.  We've seen the huge rallies in *MCR* and *NIC*. Now *PAN* has jumped up. 

I've been watching (not trading!)* JJN*.


----------



## rederob

peter2 said:


> Agreed, but when will the insanity stop?  I've got copper, some lithium but no nickel currently. I don't want to chase these higher prices but they keep going higher.



Russia's Norilsk has 20% of the nickel market and I don't think anyone wants to touch further dealings with them until the Ukranian fiasco is sorted out.
The question then is: Will Norilsk keep producing and stockpiling until then?  Or will it go into care and maintenance?
If the former than we get one almighty crash in the nickel price.
If the latter then PON will dip sharply, but not crash.

ps. I have nickel exposure via S32.  They will keep going gangbusters because because they also have other non ferrous minerals plus coking coal and a fair bit of silver.


----------



## Sean K

peter2 said:


> Agreed, but when will the insanity stop?  I've got copper, some lithium but no nickel currently. I don't want to chase these higher prices but they keep going higher.  We've seen the huge rallies in *MCR* and *NIC*. Now *PAN* has jumped up.
> 
> I've been watching (not trading!)* JJN*.
> 
> View attachment 138596




Just about all commods have run. I've had FOMO for months and missed some very good opportunities, but been slowly adding to positions on any weakness. Thought we'd see a deeper general market correction, which hasn't appeared as yet. All these commodity gains are going to feed into even more inflation over the coming months. I reckon we could see double figure inflation later this year.


----------



## charlsie

I don't know where the price of nickel will go, but i've been bullish on MCR for a couple of years now.
not withstanding their market cap (1.085B) ....I still think there is more room for a sp increase. They have agreements with BHP and operations have started. Elon Musk will take as much green nickel as he can get. Dividends should see a comeback and the company will stay in profit for quite a while if the price of nickel holds. If the world keeps away from Russian nickel for the foreseeable future, I can't see why MCR can't hit the highs of the earlier part of the century, $4.00 at least and possibly $5.00.
The next problem I have is buying the dips and watching the cycle, as all commodities eventually fall and i have no reason to believe nickel is any different


----------



## Sean K

charlsie said:


> I don't know where the price of nickel will go, but i've been bullish on MCR for a couple of years now.
> not withstanding their market cap (1.085B) ....I still think there is more room for a sp increase. They have agreements with BHP and operations have started. Elon Musk will take as much green nickel as he can get. Dividends should see a comeback and the company will stay in profit for quite a while if the price of nickel holds. If the world keeps away from Russian nickel for the foreseeable future, I can't see why MCR can't hit the highs of the earlier part of the century, $4.00 at least and possibly $5.00.
> The next problem I have is buying the dips and watching the cycle, as all commodities eventually fall and i have no reason to believe nickel is any different




Half way through this commodities bull I reckon.


----------



## Sean K

Probably need to rationalise some of these Nickel threads.

Might be a good day for Ni miners on Monday.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Probably need to rationalise some of these Nickel threads.
> 
> Might be a good day for Ni miners on Monday.
> 
> View attachment 138648
> 
> 
> View attachment 138647



Imho
It takes 5 to 10y to develop new mines.lets say 5y if not in western countries
Market will look ahead but,as we are in a wide commodities boom, substitution is not really going to happen.
So 3 to 4 minimum good years ahead.
If overall Market crashes, it could reduce the jump but your shares should ar least beat inflation
10 to 15% growth a year


----------



## rederob

Apparently Nickel does not recognise the numbers 14,  and 15, so one trading day later here we are at 16+:


	

		
			
		

		
	
I think one of the dumbest decisions made by any company last year WRT its shareholders was made by WSA.
Today I reckon it would be trading at over $5 instead of being trapped by a board decision to sell to IGO for a bargain basement price.
Little wonder so many shareholders are pissd off by ridiculously high director's fees and share allocations, when they put us last.


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Yep, I made that point Rederob in the WSA thread when the deal was announced.

I could not understand why they decided to take $3.35 a share. You’re right, WSA should be sitting well above $4 atm.


----------



## sptrawler

rederob said:


> Apparently Nickel does not recognise the numbers 14,  and 15, so one trading day later here we are at 16+:
> I think one of the dumbest decisions made by any company last year WRT its shareholders was made by WSA.
> Today I reckon it would be trading at over $5 instead of being trapped by a board decision to sell to IGO for a bargain basement price.
> Little wonder so many shareholders are pissd off by ridiculously high director's fees and share allocations, when they put us last.



I just checked the shares, public holiday over here in the West, PAN 30c 30million shares traded, you little ripper. 🤪 
Just wish I had bought more, nothing changes, woulda, shoulda, coulda.


----------



## Tropico

Hmmm...
Is Ni up.


----------



## sptrawler

Tropico said:


> Hmmm...
> Is Ni up.











						LME nickel soars by a record 30% on Russia supply concerns
					

London nickel prices soared as much as 30.7% on Monday, their biggest daily percentage gain on record, as supply disruption fears gripped markets amid an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and mounting sanctions against Moscow.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## frugal.rock

Make that 40% 
Nuts.
Sustainable?


----------



## Tropico

+50K, unbelievable.


----------



## rederob

Tropico said:


> +50K, unbelievable.



Biggest 24 hour price increase  on record:


Beyond craziness!
*$20,000*  added overnight to reach over *$50,000/lb* before falling back slightly:


----------



## rederob

Here's LME's situation today.   First backwardation:



And now inventory:



And at SHFE's warehouses we have a touch over 4K tonnes:


----------



## sptrawler

Fellow nickel bulls, strap yourselves in, this could by an exciting ride.🥳


----------



## rederob

sptrawler said:


> Fellow nickel bulls, strap yourselves in, this could by an exciting ride.🥳



It's the mother of all roller coaster rides.
Helmet and disposable underwear needed.


----------



## Tropico

rederob said:


> It's the mother of all roller coaster rides.
> Helmet and disposable underwear needed.



Nickel and Wheat, who would have guessed.
Waiting to see what happens tonight.


----------



## rederob

Tropico said:


> Nickel and Wheat, who would have guessed.
> Waiting to see what happens tonight.



Already dropped $5 from its high yesterday, but I think it will remain well above last week's prices and stay for weeks or months ahead - at least until the Russians get an ability to use SWIFT again.


----------



## Tropico

Holy frique! Is that 81000USD/tonne


----------



## sptrawler

London metal exchange suspended trading in Nickel, when it hit $100,000 tonne. OMG


----------



## waterbottle

Which ASX miners would be best exposed to this? I imagine that none of the miners have supply contracts based on the current spot price...


----------



## Tropico

sptrawler said:


> London metal exchange suspended trading in Nickel, when it hit $100,000 tonne. OM



I'm stating to think this is in part due to LME itself.
From Reuters this morning:
"The LME, which clears all trading of its metals contracts, said on Friday it was raising margin requirements for nickel contracts by 12.5% to $2,250 a tonne. The extra charge kicks in at close of business on Tuesday, March 8."

From LME, the notice


----------



## Sean K

I thought this was a practical joke when I first looked at the chart this am.


----------



## Tropico

sptrawler said:


> Fellow nickel bulls, strap yourselves in, this could by an exciting ride.🥳



This is not going to be resolved quickly.
If Tsingshan and their brokers default (as well as others that have shorted Nickel futures) then LME Clear is going to suffer some really serious pain.


----------



## Tropico

LME has spoken, at least there is some positive news:

_At the current time, all Clearing Members have met their margin requirements to LME Clear in full. However, the LME understands that credit conditions in the broader commodities markets have been placed under stress due to geopolitical events and rising prices_.



			https://www.lme.com/api/sitecore/MemberNoticesSearchApi/Download?id=fbdadbfd-bc73-4637-b817-0675b8280308
		


Opening TBA.


----------



## ducati916

jog on
duc


----------



## wayneL

Deeper stuff behind this runn and suspension of trading

Thread:


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> Deeper stuff behind this runn and suspension of trading
> 
> Thread:




Crikey!!


----------



## greggles

Looking very messy indeed.



> (Bloomberg) -- The tycoon whose big short bet on nickel helped trigger one of the most dramatic price spikes in history has told his banks and brokers that he doesn’t intend to reduce his position, according to people familiar with the matter.
> 
> The move is a characteristic display of self-confidence from Xiang Guangda, the owner of Tsingshan Holding Group Co., and means that the nickel market could be set for more fireworks once it reopens.
> 
> The London Metal Exchange halted trading in nickel on Tuesday morning after prices spiked as much as 250% in two days, driven by brokers rushing to close out short positions after holders of bearish bets including Tsingshan struggled to make margin calls.












						Nickel Tycoon Tells Banks He Wants to Keep Shorting
					

(Bloomberg) -- The tycoon whose big short bet on nickel helped trigger one of the most dramatic price spikes in history has told his banks and brokers that he doesn’t intend to reduce his position, according to people familiar with the matter.Most Read from BloombergRussia Devises Plan to Seize...




					ca.finance.yahoo.com


----------



## waterbottle

Well if he wants to be stupid, he can be stupid with his own money


----------



## Tropico

Sean K said:


> Crikey!!




Yep!
Due to confidentiality it is not named, but speculation has it that a major counterparty to Tsingshan 's shorts is Glencore.
Also not confirmed and is speculation, is that Glencore owns between 50 & 80% of the Nickel held in LME warehouses.
LME warehouses also hold some Russian Nickel, which is effectively frozen due to sanctions. This reduces the actual available warehouse stocks that can be traded.
Very deep doo-doo


----------



## sptrawler

I still can't get excited about pig nickel, just my opinion. It may be a great trading opportunity, but for me as a buy and hold for a while person, it just doesn't fit for me. It's only one Gretta from disaster. 🤣


----------



## Tropico

LME to resume trading Nickel Contracts at 08:00 London time on Wednesday 16 March 2022, with daily price movement limits for all base metals.

TRADING 22 064 NICKEL MARKET UPDATE RESUMPTION OF TRADING


----------



## Sean K

Tropico said:


> LME to resume trading Nickel Contracts at 08:00 London time on Wednesday 16 March 2022, with daily price movement limits for all base metals.
> 
> TRADING 22 064 NICKEL MARKET UPDATE RESUMPTION OF TRADING




Can we assume PON is going limit down until it gets back to where it was before the big short backfired?

*Daily Price Limits *

10. In Notice 22/055 the LME confirmed its intention to set a daily maximum limit-up and limit-down for order submission (“daily price limits”). 

11. Whilst price moves in the Nickel market have been a key focus, the LME has observed high levels of volatility across the base metals markets more broadly. Market participants have raised concern regarding the risk of sudden, extreme price moves in other metals, particularly given the geopolitical backdrop. Having regard to such concerns and its own assessment of market conditions, the LME has taken the decision to set daily price limits in either direction for all base metal outright Contracts, on all Execution Venues. 

12. The LME will apply daily price limits in either direction for all base metal outright Contracts except Nickel, with effect from the start of trading on 15 March, and will apply daily price limits in either direction for Nickel outright Contracts with effect from the start of trading on 16 March. Paragraph 13 specifies precise daily price limits for all metal outright Contracts except Nickel, and provides an indicative range in relation to Nickel. The precise levels of these limits for Nickel will be confirmed by Notice, by 14:00 London time on 15 March. 

13. The upper daily price limit for any outright Contract will be the previous Business Day’s Closing Price for that contract, plus (i) for Nickel, at least 5% having previously guided 10%, and will keep under Page 3 review in light of market conditions, or (ii) 15% for all other base metals, in both cases of the previous Business Day’s Closing Price for the 3-month Contract for the relevant metal. The lower daily price limit for any outright Contract will be the previous Business Day’s Closing Price for that Contract minus (i) for Nickel, at least 5% having previously guided 10%, and will keep under review in light of market conditions, or (ii) 15% for all other base metals, in both cases of the previous Business Day’s Closing Price for the 3-month Contract for the relevant metal. For the avoidance of doubt in relation to Nickel, the previous Business Day’s Closing Price for these purposes shall be the Closing Price on 7 March 2022. The Notice referred to in paragraph 12 shall also confirm the USD values for the Closing Price curve, as at market open on the Resumption Date.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

*Can the London Metal Exchange restart trading in the nickel contract after a week of suspension to allow a big Chinese company to be bailed out from a multibillion dollar mistake?*

Traders will again be watching the nickel contract on the London Metal Exchange where the LME plans to restart trading on Wednesday (8am London time). Hundreds of companies large and small, including miners, brokers, traders, advisers of all types and majors like BHP, Vale (which owns the old Inco mines in Canada), Nickel Mines, Glencore, Western Areas and IGO will be watching to see how prices move.

They will be watching to see if a truce struck between the Chinese company at the centre of the trading debacle, Tsingshan Holding and its banks holds or whether it fails if there is another rapid price movement – almost certainly a fall initially. Banks including JPMorgan Chase and Standard Chartered have agreed not to close out Tsingshan’s position or make further margin calls — demands for extra cash to cover losses.

The _Financial Times _reported that other bank counterparties to Tsingshan’s huge (and failed) bet on lower nickel prices are Chinese lenders ICBC and China Construction Bank which means the Chinese government has been involved in the talks

The standstill agreement will give the two sides time to reach a deal on a new secured credit facility that the world’s biggest stainless-steel producer can use for its “nickel margin and settlement requirements”.

In a rare public statement, the privately owned company said an “integral feature” of the agreement was a “provision for the existing hedge positions to be reduced by the Tsingshan Group in a fair and orderly manner as abnormal market conditions subside”.

The LME suspended dealings in nickel last Tuesday and cancelled thousands of trades after its benchmark contract doubled to a record above $US100,000 a tonne, bringing global trading in the metal to a halt.

The LME will introduce daily price limits for all of its metals including nickel. Members will also be asked to disclose all Over the Counter positions in nickel greater than 100 lots until further notice.


> _“The LME notes in particular that a large client of the market has now published details relating to the support of a banking consortium, which could suggest that the potential for further disorderly conditions may be mitigated_,” the exchange said in a statement, its third since the crisis emerged on Tuesday of last week.












						All Eyes on Nickel Ahead of LME Reopening – ShareCafe
					

Enormous pressure on global commodity markets with traders big and small watching what will be a huge test of faith as the LME restarts trading in the nickel contract tomorrow, London time.




					www.sharecafe.com.au


----------



## sptrawler

London Metal Exchange to start trading nickel again, apparently measures have been put in place to control price swings, including reporting trades of more than 600T and where the material is sourced from and limits on daily price movements.
High quality known reserves should benefit IMO, it sounds as though there is way too many smoke and mirrors trades going on.  









						London Metal Exchange to resume nickel trade
					

LONDON (AP) — The London Metal Exchange plans to resume trading in nickel, a week after it was suspended when the price of the metal surged to over $100,000 a ton.  Trading will resume at 8 a.m.




					apnews.com
				



From the article:
LONDON (AP) — The London Metal Exchange plans to resume trading in nickel, a week after it was suspended when the price of the metal surged to over $100,000 a ton.

Trading will resume at 8 a.m. London time on Wednesday, the LME said in a statement, saying a major market client had confirmed it had gained support from banks that might forestall further “disorderly conditions.”

That followed an announcement Monday by Tsingshan Holding Group, a Chinese metals giant, that it had struck a deal with a consortium of its creditors on a “standstill arrangement.” It said the banks agreed not to make margin calls or close out their positions against Tsingshan while the company is resolving its nickel margin and settlement requirements.

“As an integral feature of the agreement, there is provision for the existing hedge positions to be reduced by the Tsingshan group in a fair and orderly manner as abnormal market conditions subside,” it said.

Before trading was suspended, nickel prices had quadrupled in a week amid widening and severe economic sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

The LME said it would specify precise levels for daily price fluctuations later Tuesday.

Prices for copper, zinc and aluminum have fallen this week along with the price of oil and other commodities.


----------



## Tropico

5% for Nickel, 15% for other base metals. I think they will review Ni daily.



			https://www.lme.com/api/sitecore/MemberNoticesSearchApi/Download?id=ac564a6b-b70f-4ae9-9f0d-d9e5decdea6e


----------



## rederob

Nickel will be back in 2 hours hours from now!
Who is betting on firmness, and who thinks there's going to be a price collapse?
LME and SHFE warehouses barely have a day's worth available, so whatever happens today we still don't get any more metal to play with.


----------



## sptrawler

I think there will be a run on 99.8% grade1 nickel, now these contracts have to be transparent, long term contracts will be required to get price and supply certainty.
I would think it will be impossible to quickly change most production processes, or to change chemistries, it will be very interesting .


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> I think there will be a run on 99.8% grade1 nickel, now these contracts have to be transparent, long term contracts will be required to get price and supply certainty.
> I would think it will be impossible to quickly change most production processes, or to change chemistries, it will be very interesting .




I'm not sure how a nickel developer does a DFS at the moment. On $20K a ton, or $40K? It's a slightly different parameter on the economics of a project. CTM did their scoping study on 7.50/lb, it's now 21ish. They might have to plug in a range from 7.50 to 21, which is nuts.


----------



## sptrawler

Sean K said:


> I'm not sure how a nickel developer does a DFS at the moment. On $20K a ton, or $40K? It's a slightly different parameter on the economics of a project. CTM did their scoping study on 7.50/lb, it's now 21ish. They might have to plug in a range from 7.50 to 21, which is nuts.



Very true, but I think it is more a concern for the Li ion battery producers, they need some certainty on the price of a major part of their process, imagine if you produce batteries and lock in contracts at a certain price to supply them, then one of your core materials eg lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite goes through the roof.
Some devices need the energy density of lithium ion batteries, as they are high current draw, even as we have said with E.V's at the moment the long range vehicles and definitely heavy vehicles will still need the more expensive materials.
The other thing is, I wouldn't think if you have a factory that rolls up Li ion batteries, you can just say to the production  team, tomorrow we are changing to Li fe po batteries.
So I think the only option, will be to lock in a contract with a reliable producer, like I said I think BHP's nickel west will be getting a lot of knocks on the door. 
Lets be honest, the shenanigans going on with major share holders shorting and not covering, makes you wonder how reliable they would be to source your material from IMO.


----------



## wayneL

Absolute coin toss with no skin in the game here.... Politics and whale ass covering... Gap lower and  angry longs.


----------



## Sean K

So, Nickel down to $25K by 5% increments per day perhaps...


----------



## sptrawler

There is a reason, Elon Musk last year was running around locking in contracts, for nickel IMO.


----------



## Country Lad

_LONDON -- Nickel trading in London was suspended Wednesday shortly after it resumed following a weeklong halt as the exchange investigated a glitch.

The London Metal Exchange said it had to pause trading to investigate a “system error” that let the price fall below a lower daily limit.

The exchange brought in daily price limits to reduce volatility as part of efforts to restart trading for the nickel contract, which was first suspended last week when the price skyrocketed to over $100,000 per ton.

The exchange said it “allowed a small number of trades” to be carried out below the lower price limit. It vowed to reopen trading “as soon as possible.”_


----------



## Padowan

sptrawler said:


> Very true, but I think it is more a concern for the Li ion battery producers, they need some certainty on the price of a major part of their process, imagine if you produce batteries and lock in contracts at a certain price to supply them, then one of your core materials eg lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite goes through the roof.
> Some devices need the energy density of lithium ion batteries, as they are high current draw, even as we have said with E.V's at the moment the long range vehicles and definitely heavy vehicles will still need the more expensive materials.
> The other thing is, I wouldn't think if you have a factory that rolls up Li ion batteries, you can just say to the production  team, tomorrow we are changing to Li fe po batteries.
> So I think the only option, will be to lock in a contract with a reliable producer, like I said I think BHP's nickel west will be getting a lot of knocks on the door.
> Lets be honest, the shenanigans going on with major share holders shorting and not covering, makes you wonder how reliable they would be to source your material from IMO.



@sptrawler agree that medium to longer term the LME debacle potentially damaging for the use of nickel as a key ingredient EV batteries, all European car manufacturers  would be not liking the thought that a Chinese billionaire that likes to make big bets can massively influence the cost of one of their key raw commodity inputs, more longer term investment in LFP batteries as you say could ease the squeeze


----------



## sptrawler

Padowan said:


> @sptrawler agree that medium to longer term the LME debacle potentially damaging for the use of nickel as a key ingredient EV batteries, all European car manufacturers  would be not liking the thought that a Chinese billionaire that likes to make big bets can massively influence the cost of one of their key raw commodity inputs, more longer term investment in LFP batteries as you say could ease the squeeze



I would think so, but the grade1 nickel will be reserved for high spec batteries IMO.
A lot more transparency in the trading of some materials will be the result IMO
Already LFP blade batteries are getting a lot better, but that will in turn cause advancement in LNCM batteries, things don't improve untill they have to.


----------



## rederob

Maybe not too many trades overnight, as noted from a post above.
Nevertheless, the closing price dipped only 43 cents/lb, so bullish sentiment has barely waned for nickel:


----------



## rederob

This *Bloomberg *article details the present issues with nickel's pricing on the LME.
It's a long an interesting read.  Here's a snippet:
_*The nickel market, as I hope I have conveyed, is weird. But at a high level it is not that weird. Nickel was bopping along at some normal price. Nickel producers and users and traders and speculators were trading nickel futures to hedge their price risk or to bet on price moves. They all had to post margin to secure their obligations under the futures contracts, and as prices moved one side had to post more margin (and the other got some margin back). The traders and their brokers and the exchange all had models about how much prices typically moved, and those models affected their risk management decisions: how much margin to demand, how many futures to sell to a client, how much cash to have on hand to meet margin calls, etc.*_​​*And then a big surprising geopolitical event — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — pushed up the price of nickel more and faster than people expected. Traders were not ready for it; they did not have the cash on hand to meet margin calls, so they were forced to buy back contracts and the price went up in a vicious cycle that left the price of nickel futures “disconnected from physical reality.” *​​The question arising from LME's nickel pricing rules, as noted in the article, is when will traders etc. decide they must have metal for delivery and therefore have no other option and buy back into the market.  And, does that then become the so called "real price" or has Russia's move and subsequent sanctions thrown a curve ball that will continue to have everyone bamboozled?


----------



## sptrawler

I would be surprised if there isn't a scramble, to lock in long term supply contracts, at a negotiated price.


----------



## rederob

Reality finally bites and nickel takes a few steps down:


Very little traded, and no inventory builds have occurred, so the march upwards should resume soon enough.
Even if it does not, the boom in lithium ternary battery manufacturing that will continue to at least 2024 should ensure that any future trips to the downside will be quickly reined in.


----------



## rederob

Nickel now practising the 2 step:


This is going to be fun.
Usually took months to see these movements which are occuring within a day.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:


> This is going to be fun.
> Usually took months to see these movements which are occuring within a day.



Déjà vu all over again ...


Looks like its close to LME's limit up, so should flatline from here.
Monday will give another clue to IGO's Western Areas bid still being regarded as fair by the independent expert.  Given the present price is close to double that of a year ago IGO's bid looks more like highway robbery.


----------



## divs4ever

maybe IGO should offer a scrip component  ( instead of extra cash )

 that would be the deal more acceptable to me


----------



## rederob

divs4ever said:


> maybe IGO should offer a scrip component  ( instead of extra cash )
> 
> that would be the deal more acceptable to me



The problem for we small investors is that it's the major shareholders who get a disproportionate, ie undemocratic, vote which is effectively based on wealth.  For example, as nice as Twiggy is (via Wyloo), he has at least a million times more voting power as an individual than I have.  Combine that with a select few institutional decision makers, who are likely already heavily invested in IGO and therefore will be bigger winners again, then it's easy to see how when the *takeover *matter comes to a vote, then we are little more than nuisance value.

We are almost a full month since nickel prices went ballistic and the present price is about $12k/tonne higher:


While nickel prices are unlikely to remain as elevated as present (ie above $37k) over the longer term, it is somewhat farcical for IGO to present their takeover price as representative of a long term value proposition, and therefore they would not make a higher bid.  All WSA investors knew that its project pipeline was still years away from maturing *and *that the transition to a greener future would continue to increase nickel demand, thus leading to much higher and more sustainable long run prices.  How did the so called independent expert not work this out?

Right now there are two important questions:

how much longer before price volatility dissipates and we reach a steady state, and
what will the average price be when that happens?
I personally see $25k/tonne as where "support" should sit in the longer term, and until the Ukranian fiasco is sorted out I won't be surprised to see a plus $30k price ticker hanging out its window of opportunity.  In IGO's takeover context a fairer price for WSA is well over $5/share.


----------



## sptrawler

I agree with you @rederob , also with regard WSA,  from memory their reserve were of % nickel. That was affecting their recovery rate, pre the takeover offer, I may be wrong, but I think that was what was happening.


----------



## rederob

I think you missed the number "1" above - yes, at 1% nickel WSA will not be as profitable as previously.  However, its *contained nickel* pipeline gives it a long life cycle and over a decade of further exploration to add to its resource base:



IGO's offer was never generous as it barely incorporated the hundreds of millions WSA already spent to get to its new growth pipelines, *and *about $150 million in cash reserves (ie., about 45cps).


----------



## greggles

Nickel facing a liquidity crisis as trading volumes collapse on the LME.









						Nickel paralysis deepens as battered LME market barely trades
					

The market has remained in near-paralysis, even on days when prices have been trading within the 15% daily limit.




					www.mining.com
				




The LME has lost a lot of credibility over this nickel short squeeze. How can large players confidently hedge metal price risk with an exchange that arbitrarily cancels trades?


----------



## sptrawler

greggles said:


> Nickel facing a liquidity crisis as trading volumes collapse on the LME.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nickel paralysis deepens as battered LME market barely trades
> 
> 
> The market has remained in near-paralysis, even on days when prices have been trading within the 15% daily limit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mining.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The LME has lost a lot of credibility over this nickel short squeeze. How can large players confidently hedge metal price risk with an exchange that arbitrarily cancels trades?



I would think buyers will have to lock in log term supply contracts, with reliable suppliers.


----------



## Sean K

Nickel looks like it's stabilising a little, but well above the prices before the short squeeze. You'd expect it to go back to the 25K mark at some stage, unless something fundamental has happened in the market. Is the Russia sanctions and less supply going to change the price longer term? What price does a company doing a DFS on a nickel mine plug into the spreadsheet? At the moment the range is $25K to $35K, but a company like CTM had a number way down around $15K for their scoping study. I suppose it depends on what they could reasonably get in an off-take agreement. How much will Elon pay I wonder.


----------



## rederob

*This *is a must read for anyone investing in mining companies.
Specifically related to nickel, it says:



While I think the Quarterly report from the Chief Economist is on the money here, I reckon their EV outlook is significantly off.
Bottom line here is that the continuing incremental increased demand for BEV nickel is likely to keep nickel prices elevated until a better battery technology takes it place in terms of *energy density*.


----------



## sptrawler

Nickel has finally settled down, which IMO is good for the industry, having crazy swings causes a loss of confidence.  









						Nickel price back to where it started before March chaos
					

Nickel futures finally tumbled back below the level where the London Metal Exchange market closed March 4.




					www.mining.com


----------



## rederob

Column: Nickel demand boomed in 2021; this year it will be supply​Headlines are interesting things, and this one is backed by some good data.  The problem is the assumptions underlying it: are they sound?
The *INSG *does not actually have the best record of getting its numbers right, despite being the principal nickel industry commentator:


So here we are 5 months into 2022 and *LME *+ *SFE *warehouses have a grand total of 63500 tonnes available, and have not shown any signs of inventory build of substance this year.
Indonesia is leading the supply side response, but largely via nickel pig iron. It will send its nickel matte and MHP to China for further processing to be suitable for BEVs.
Problematic in the INSG's forecast is how China, which fell away in stainless output last year, might bounce back.  That said, given covid lockdowns to date, it's unlikely China's 2022 numbers will look as impressive as last years.  While on the other hand the rest of the world grew stainless production by over 20% in 2021.  Just maintaining that increase dents the INSG's forecast, while a further increase cannot be ruled out, notwithstanding the disruptions from Ukraine. 
But the real issue is how BEV numbers are consistently and significantly above forecasts, potentially nullifying INSG's 2022 supply surplus.  And a possibly hidden factor is if the many planned and soon to be in production ternary battery gigafactories have already locked in supply so they they don't get caught short.  If that's the case then we are likely to see a another deficit in 2022.


----------



## sptrawler

A good article on nickel, for those interested.








						Why miners are racing to produce one of the world's most in-demand metals
					

Nickel is a critical metal in batteries, and the world's miners are struggling to keep up with booming demand as consumers switch to renewables.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Sean K

BHP are clearly trying to consolidate in the Cu and Ni space and they seem pretty light on for Ni compared to other commods. Only $0.4bn compared to IO $21b and Cu $8.6b. I don't think West Musgrave will be the end of their adventures into Ni. I'm expecting CTM to be one of the projects of sufficient scale that BHP could go after. I thought OZL actually would as they operate in the region of the future CTM mine. It'll have about a 25 year mine life so could fit the bill. I'm hoping for something like that anyway.


----------



## JohnDe

Tesla may have started a Nickel rush amongst vehicle manufacturers - 



> *Tesla needs nickel to dominate the car industry. It just signed a $5 billion deal with the metal’s largest source*
> 
> If Elon Musk wants to sell 20 million cars a year by 2030, he’ll need a lot of nickel—a key metal used in the electric batteries that power Tesla cars. And now, after years of wooing, the largest source of the metal seems to have won the Tesla CEO over.
> 
> On Monday, an Indonesian cabinet minister told CNBC Indonesia that Tesla had agreed to buy $5 billion worth of nickel products from the Southeast Asian country over the next five years. Indonesia is the world’s biggest source of nickel, with about 23.7% of the world’s reserves, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. (The U.S. imports most of its nickel—which is also used to make alloys like stainless steel—from Canada, Norway, Finland, and Australia).....


----------



## frugal.rock

Deja vu


----------



## qldfrog

frugal.rock said:


> Deja vu
> 
> View attachment 146392



Us market closed so could it be JP Morgan and friends are not suppressing the market today?


----------



## noirua

Always a small chance of something like this happening again.








						50 years ago, Poseidon made today's WAAAX look waned
					

If you think those darlings of the ASX, the WAAAX stocks, have the most spectacular valuation excesses, how about 80 cents to $280 in a few months? Poseidon was the biggest of all, and we don't learn the lessons.




					www.firstlinks.com.au
				











						50 years after Poseidon, big nickel is back
					

The electric car boom has brought a new buzz around nickel, reviving memories of a global investment sensation that took place two years before Elon Musk was even born, writes Brad Thompson.




					www.afr.com


----------



## Sean K

noirua said:


> Always a small chance of something like this happening again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 50 years ago, Poseidon made today's WAAAX look waned
> 
> 
> If you think those darlings of the ASX, the WAAAX stocks, have the most spectacular valuation excesses, how about 80 cents to $280 in a few months? Poseidon was the biggest of all, and we don't learn the lessons.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.firstlinks.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 50 years after Poseidon, big nickel is back
> 
> 
> The electric car boom has brought a new buzz around nickel, reviving memories of a global investment sensation that took place two years before Elon Musk was even born, writes Brad Thompson.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.afr.com




Yes, but are the circumstances the same? Poseidon 40c to $280... Haven't seen that yet. 

Not sure what the fundamentals were on nickel back then.


----------



## Sean K

Nickel has quietly risen from around 22k to 30k over the past couple of weeks. Might explain some of the rise in things like NIC, CHN, CTM, MCR.


----------



## peter2

Agreed @Sean K . I was aware of the rally in my nickel position (*NIC*). Should have looked at the nickel price. 
This is a chart of the nickel ETN - *JJN *that reflects the price rally.


----------



## Sean K

peter2 said:


> Agreed @Sean K . I was aware of the rally in my nickel position (*NIC*). Should have looked at the nickel price.
> This is a chart of the nickel ETN - *JJN *that reflects the price rally.
> 
> View attachment 149685




It's quickly dropped back to $25Kt the last few days but that still means companies like CHN, with 2Mt of contained NiEq, and CTM with 1Mt Ni, have about $50b and $25b of $$ in the ground.


----------



## JohnDe

> A traditionally "spiky" commodity could be Tasmania's ticket into a booming industry, according to the general manager of the state's first and only nickel mine.
> 
> The Avebury Nickel Mine, about 10 kilometres from Zeehan on Tasmania's West Coast, reopened and began producing in September after sitting in care and maintenance for 13 years.


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon

Nice succinct article written by Garimpeiro’ columnist Barry FitzGerald yesterday (10/12/22), about Nickel and some nickel stocks to watch in coming months.









						Barry FitzGerald: Lithium is dead; long live these nickel juniors in 2023 - Stockhead
					

Nickel supply needs to increase four-fold over the next 30 years if energy transition targets are to be met.




					stockhead.com.au
				




Not holding ASO, NIS or NNL.  Kindly conduct your own due diligence.

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## divs4ever

lithium  out of favor , is it ?

 might revisit IGO ( for some research )

 i had a nice run  but exited when they sold their interest in Tropicana , maybe there is an interesting re-entry point 

 i hold OZL ( free-carried ) , MCR ( free-carried ) and PAN  ( and WES for a little lithium exposure )


----------



## qldfrog

Nickel has been the war commodity for eon.no reason with Ukraine for it not to remain #1
The whole US and NATO stocks are being sent there to be exploded in a global warming attempt and needs to be replaced in their respective homes.
That plus EV,and copper looks like a poor cousin ..long life Nickel


----------



## Sean K

Solid long term uptrend since Feb 16. Disregard the short squeeze and it's a pretty sight. I thought 25,000 would have been nice to settle on with current producers and near developers reaping benefits. But, looks like 30,000 could be a new benchmark shortly if this trend continues. A couple of Ni explorers putting together feasibility studies will need to up their price assumptions I think making their projects look extremely valuable. For eg, CTM have 1Mt Ni in Jaguar. They might have been doing a DFS on 15-18K a ton for Ni, do they now make that 25K or even 30K as upside? At 30K that's $30b in the ground. They won't mine the entire resource of course, but even half of it, it's looking pretty good at these prices.


----------

