# MGW - McGuigan Simeon Wines



## Dutchy3 (19 March 2006)

Taking a LONG anchor position in this one


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## Dutchy3 (4 April 2006)

Need to see 3.20 hold comprehensively by the end of this week.

A solid move through 3.30 woulf be welcome by Friday


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## Dutchy3 (6 April 2006)

Looking good and loading up.

The gap up on the open on Wednesday is encouraging and it looks like 3.20 indeed will hold for the balance of this week.


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## Sean K (25 August 2006)

Any bottom pickers out there looking to get their fingers dirty?   

I nearly bought this at about $5.50. Fewwww!!!!

So just where is the bottom of this baby? Must be worth a punt soon. Probably up your ally Realist.


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## pch (25 August 2006)

Like all wine stocks they are bleeding badly but as a result the sector becomes contrarian. I've been looking for a while but not touching, but if you compare all of the listed companies in this sector, MGW tend to not look as bad as others - certainly nowhere the debt/equity problems of Evans and Tate.


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## Sean K (20 September 2006)

The contrarian is screaming out from inside me saying 'this has found a bottom!'  

Anyone else looking at this long term recovery story? Could it just be turning a corner, or, is destined for administration?


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## Dutchy3 (20 September 2006)

kennas

I failed to check the weekly situation when I took a position a few months ago. STOPPED out very quick.

What do you think on where IAG and MBP are in terms of their weekly charts? - tend to think there is more latent potential in their situation that MGW


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## Sean K (20 September 2006)

Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> kennas
> 
> I failed to check the weekly situation when I took a position a few months ago. STOPPED out very quick.
> 
> What do you think on where IAG and MBP are in terms of their weekly charts? - tend to think there is more latent potential in their situation that MGW




Dutchy, after a quick look IAG could go ANYWHERE, while MBP seems to have a floor at $0.38 but no indication of really rising to me. Chart wise, all different IMO.


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## Sean K (24 September 2006)

Perhaps a bottom was found. I didn't get on, but one to watch for the turn around artists I reckon. 

From The Age this am:

Investors who have watched their scrip in McGuigan Simeon Wines plunge from $6.30 to as low as $1.90 over the past 18 months might be put out of their misery soon.

The shares recently were fetching $1.94, but during the last couple of days they've got a real wriggle on, rising rapidly on Friday due to talk of an imminent takeover bid.

The shares opened at $2.38, hit $2.65 and closed at $2.50.

Anyone following ownership changes in the loss-incurring wine outfit would have noticed that there has been regular buying by a clutch of American fund managers.

Fidelity, with 9 per cent of the capital, the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio, with 5 per cent, and Brandes Investment Partners, with 11 per cent, are now all positioned on the register and they've all been buying recently.

Toss in a further batch of fund managers, such as Morgan Stanley, which owns 5 per cent of the capital, Schroder Asset Management with nearly 10 per cent, and Maple-Brown Abbott, which is sitting on 9.5 per cent of the register, and you have a total of 40 per cent of the shares in seven hands.

In its heyday, McGuigan was valued by the market at about $700 million, but recently had slipped as low as $227 million.

The company lost $11.5 million in the June year after a near $42 million stock write-down, and chairman David Clarke reckons the industry had not yet reached the bottom of the cycle, summing it up as: "There is just too much wine being produced around the world."

But he said that McGuigan was in reasonable shape and that cash flow was very strong.

Just what a takeover merchant would like.


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## Realist (24 September 2006)

I still do not like it...

They'd need to make a $20M profit for it to be fairly priced.  You're not getting proper dividends, and wine is still a problem industry much like telcos are. I can't see it changing overnight.

I like to avoid companies that make losses.

If they make another loss the shares will plunge. If they make a $20M profit the shares are fairly priced, and I really can not see them making more than $20M profit, so why buy them?

Besides all that I am not a fan of their wines, Fosters is the best wine company in Aus, and I like their wines, they make profits and pay good dividends...

MGW is a poor mans FGL.


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## Sean K (24 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I still do not like it...
> 
> They'd need to make a $20M profit for it to be fairly priced.  You're not getting proper dividends, and wine is still a problem industry much like telcos are. I can't see it changing overnight.
> 
> ...




I like the takeover potential for this one Realist. 

Looks like a bottom found to me. Takeover rumours may have some legs.


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## Realist (28 September 2006)

Takeover rumous are over, MGW back down to $2.51.

It will hide and do nothing until we know more about next years earnings, and if they don't make nearly $20M NPAT then they are overvalued.  Which I suspect could be the case.


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## Sean K (16 November 2006)

Unfortunately, I think I did pick the bottom at $2.00 and haven't taken the risk to pick the dirty bottom of this turkey of the past 12 months. Things have changed by the look. 

I might be stretching it but there's a slight resemblance of an inverse H&S pattern here and it's either broken through one neck line, or just about to break through another. With the drought destroying about 20% of this years crop, prices are going to go up, while there is still the rationalisation of the industry going on. 

Still time for bottom pickers perhaps with a slightly contrarian view.


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## Sean K (17 November 2006)

This is just about to break resistance at $2.85. Surely it is primed. 

Anyone else out there game? 

Might be one to throw a CFD at I reckon. If the market holds up this weekend I might just have to. Although, this damn rain might be good for the grape harvest.


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## RichKid (17 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> This is just about to break resistance at $2.85. Surely it is primed.
> 
> Anyone else out there game?
> 
> Might be one to throw a CFD at I reckon. If the market holds up this weekend I might just have to. Although, this damn rain might be good for the grape harvest.




Just a view since I've been watching this stock from time to time as well: clearly there is lots of supply at 2.85 (on high volume) or this would have broken out sooner, but we also know there is support around 2.65 and below due to the rising prices. This upleg looks a bit odd, purely subjective view on my part, maybe just a counter trend or could be the start of an explosive move, who knows? Will be watching closely if we get a breakout, supply may have been soaked up so we could see some wide ranging bars.


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## Sean K (20 November 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Just a view since I've been watching this stock from time to time as well: clearly there is lots of supply at 2.85 (on high volume) or this would have broken out sooner, but we also know there is support around 2.65 and below due to the rising prices. This upleg looks a bit odd, purely subjective view on my part, maybe just a counter trend or could be the start of an explosive move, who knows? Will be watching closely if we get a breakout, supply may have been soaked up so we could see some wide ranging bars.



Might have broken through $2.85, up 10c at $2.95. I'm in.

AGM this week might bring a good or nasty surprise. Have parachute ready.


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## Sean K (20 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Might have broken through $2.85, up 10c at $2.95. I'm in.
> 
> AGM this week might bring a good or nasty surprise. Have parachute ready.




 

Looks like a breakout now. Hopefully I haven't jumped the gun. Needs to hold above by the end of play, but looking positive. Highest level in 6 months.


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## KIWIKARLOS (20 November 2006)

hey guys can someone give me a brief description on how these graphs work?

I sorta get the candle graph, it shows high, low open and close doesn't it so you can tell if a share is trending up or down.

Black means trend down and white means up.

With the graph that looks like a sin wave does that represent price trends?


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## Sean K (20 November 2006)

KIWIKARLOS said:
			
		

> hey guys can someone give me a brief description on how these graphs work?
> 
> I sorta get the candle graph, it shows high, low open and close doesn't it so you can tell if a share is trending up or down.
> 
> ...



Best you go to Charts School Kiwi.

Have a brouse through this site. Will explain everything:

http://stockcharts.com/education/

Cheers.


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## Sean K (20 November 2006)

Closed at $2.91 off day high $2.97 flirting with $3.00. Holding above $2.85 was very important here. Hopefully another up day tomorrow confirming breakout. I got in at average $2.93, initial stop around $2.65. The AGM could be a make or break short term. Hopefully they paint a light at the end of the grape glut tunnel for this sick wino.


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## Sean K (21 November 2006)

Cunning plan has worked to this point. Holding above old resistance. If it hold for 3 days I'll be happier, and will be wary of any surprises from AGM.....


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## Sean K (22 November 2006)

AGM ann out this afternoon and MGW was hammered initially, and then pulled back up. There was nothing new in the AGM that had not been ann before so it's quite bizaar that the market reacted at all. Disappointing really. Analysts comments tonight may decide it's future. 

Finished right on what I hope is new support.


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## Sean K (23 November 2006)

Has NOT behaved how I wanted and is only just holding on for me. Any weakness here and I'm out.

How about the range over the past 2 days!!!!!

What it does tell me is that there are people in two camps out there. Neither has won the past 2 days. It's generally going up, so I expect the buyers to win. I hope. 

$2.85 ish is a bit of resistance still, as is $2.95. 

Interesting position at the moment. Not really happy with my buy at $2.90ish really. Was expecting a clean break up....


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## CanOz (23 November 2006)

Kennas they had a bit of bad press today, but unfortunatly i only caught part of it on the Australia network this morning. Sorry i couldn't get the whole story, but someone must have seen something on it.


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## Sean K (23 November 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Kennas they had a bit of bad press today, but unfortunatly i only caught part of it on the Australia network this morning. Sorry i couldn't get the whole story, but someone must have seen something on it.



Crazy C, I thought the info they provided at the AGM was just a rehash of their earlier guidance. Nothing new. I think analysts were hoping (like me) that they were going to provide a more upbeat forecast. I expected this because the sp had been slowly improving, but alas, not to be. From a TA point of view it's still in the zone for me. Not up or down. The next few days will tell.


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## Sean K (27 November 2006)

Surprsing strength in the sp with many commentators bagging it saying that the wine glut is still going to hold it back. The breakout has been definately confirmed and looking great. 

Sorry, this doesn't mine Uranium, or Zinc....


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## Sean K (27 November 2006)

Something dodgy going on at MGW today. Unusual rise for a wine maker throwing out grapes. Perhaps the takeover rumours are back in the wind. Yes, please!


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (27 November 2006)

Or the droughts put a rosy picture on some of their whites, have they got vineyards in nice rainfall areas. Seemingly whites are up 30 percent as a result of the eastern states drought affecting wine producers.

Just a thought and I know nothing about MGW vineyard locations.


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## mmmmining (27 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Something dodgy going on at MGW today. Unusual rise for a wine maker throwing out grapes. Perhaps the takeover rumours are back in the wind. Yes, please!




I was charmed by this stock when I met Brain McGuigan in person 9 years ago. He signed one red wine for me, and one white wine for my daughter (She was only a few days old by then). I kept the wine for x years when one day I decided to drink them. Here you go, the MGW share price, down to the drain... Anyway, I put it in the bottom bottom draw simple the wine taste so good...


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## Sean K (4 December 2006)

Finding some resistance at $3.30 ish, but good buying support over the past week keeping it strong. Notice the tails on all the candles the past few days?

Little bit of support developing at $3.15 ish, hopefully giving it the momentum to break through $3.30. Should be v g support down around $3.00, but I'm not sure if I'll hold if it breaks below $3.10 as I've CFD'd this. I'm hoping for an exit around $3.90, just under the next significant resistance level.


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## Sean K (6 December 2006)

I've decided to sell at $3.20 this afternoon. It traded under $3.10 today which I was not happy with. Looks like it might finish with a nice hammer but I'm just worried how this will respond to a general market downturn now. So, I'll wait again to see what the market's doing over the next few days. T/O will probably be ann tomorrow.


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## sheggie (23 January 2007)

Something interesting seems to be happening with MGW price and volume over the last few days. No please-explain from ASX. No announcements. Any guesses?


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## James Capel (11 April 2007)

Been little chat on this stock over the last few months. Any thoughts on this one's potential now that the wine exports are up again, I am thinking of jumping in although I am a newbie and have no idea


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## sheggie (11 April 2007)

I sold my shares in MGW but at the moment it looks like it might be a value buy. Its not paying dividends though. The last straw for me was the Chairman's Comments after the last GM. They sounded completely negative. Not only that. For some time they had been going on about how the grape glut was reducing their profits. In this address he says that the fact that the vintage was going to be smaller this year would reduce profits. Huh? You can't have it both ways mate. I'm still watching it and I'd be interested in other people's opinions.
PS. I'm no expert.


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## badmarty (3 July 2007)

I recon that below $2.2 this stock is a buy, with wine exports to increase this year and the drought looking like its over. Just wondering what other people think?


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## sheggie (3 July 2007)

You would have to be taking a very long term view to consider this stock. They are deep in the red (!) and not paying dividends. They've gone from a wine glut to a wine shortage and they still seem to be struggling. Still they used to be good and if you've got the patience and the risk appetite, wine not.
PS. I'm no expert. But I do like to have a wine.


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## Sean K (29 September 2007)

Fat Prophets slapped a sell on this last week after recommending it about $4.00. LOL  One of their better picks!! Since they've put a sell on it, it's now on my radar for a turnaround! he he.

It's now hitting 10 year lows. They will probably either go into administration, or someone with some spare change will buy them out. The wine glut etc, is surely just a cyclic thing and they will eventually come good. The world needs wine! :alcohol:


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## Chief Wigam (29 September 2007)

Yeah I short sold at 1.83 a couple of weeks ago. Still short and hoping for more southward movement.


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## Brengun (29 September 2007)

I thought MGW might be on the turnaround and bought on 16/7 for 2.22.
I sold on 8/8 at 2.04. Thank goodness I sold and only lost $1100. The shareprice now is 1.69 and still heading south. Could be quite a while before I get in again.


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## Sean K (29 September 2007)

Gents, when it gets to 50 cents, lets all chip in a take 30% ish. Then we can drink the profits...or at least have some nice real estate to retire on. 

One to watch for a turn around I think. Or, if we notice some unusual volume, a takeover perhaps. I wouldn't touch it until I see some higher lows and highs at this point however....


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## michael_selway (29 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Gents, when it gets to 50 cents, lets all chip in a take 30% ish. Then we can drink the profits...or at least have some nice real estate to retire on.
> 
> One to watch for a turn around I think. Or, if we notice some unusual volume, a takeover perhaps. I wouldn't touch it until I see some higher lows and highs at this point however....




Hm which companies do you think may takover thsi one?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -4.8 3.2 11.8 19.5 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 *

thx

MS


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## Sean K (29 September 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hm which companies do you think may takover thsi one?



I think FGL would be held up by the anti competitive mob. Maybe even Lion Nathan. Perhaps then an offshore...San Miguel? Pernod Richard?


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## Sean K (16 October 2007)

This is getting pretty ugly for long term holders. 

Anyone still hanging in there?

Will be interesting to see what happens with this.


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## Chief Wigam (16 October 2007)

The perfect down trend. You would have to have nads of steel to be long on this. Sell. imho. Good luck to all but I am short.


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## Rainmaker2000 (16 October 2007)

I'm not sure what the chart or the tea leaves tell us........but I cut my losses on MGW a while ago, and quite unhappily..........I bought it as a contrarian play as it was trading around 'asset value', I had been following since it traded at 6$ and I still believe it to be one of the best and lowest cost operators in the industry.....however.........when I was comparing the past profit statements to the cash flow statements, a very, very rude picture was appearing........it appeared that our pal Mr McQuigan and the employed family members weren't exactly giving shareholders an accurate picture....infact McQuigan has not been positive cash flow for years even through acquisitions and takeover speculation.....and I didn't appreciate Mr McQuigan selling all his stake by way of a cunning put option for reason of 'illness'....I know it may appear to late to sell but unfortunately there are honest companies and then there are the others....


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## Chief Wigam (26 October 2007)

I agree with you rainmaker. Too many other good opportunities out there. This bull market has more to run. I am still short MGW.


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## pch (26 October 2007)

I almost bought these back over a year ago near the last $2ish bottom and of course glad I did not..

The loss this year is actually a bit worse IMO because it doesn't involve a major inventory write down. (Operational performance was actually better in 06 than 07, its just they wrote down 44mil of inventory)

Who think the assets are fair value now? I still worry about the remaining inventory (177mil) and I can see this one dropping further, simply because of the uncertainty over the value of these assets - its hard to pick a bottom.


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## Rainmaker2000 (27 October 2007)

Tough to know the value of 'assets' in this industry as the entire sector seems subeconomic.......MGW is one of the sectors better performers and have a query over whether its assets and shareholder funds have made a profit in any of the last 5 years....cashflow should be the key indicator for this dishonest company


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## pch (27 October 2007)

indeed - at least operational cashlflow is positive (but thats the one that is much sicker this year than last and worries me). I tend to look at that, from the perspective that investment cashflow 'should' derive benefits in later years.


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## Sean K (27 October 2007)

No matter what the funnymentals say this stock is going in either one of two directions IMO:

1. Takeover
2. Administration

Worth watching the volumes to capitalise on a takeover.


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## barrett (27 October 2007)

Kennas was that comment purely from a technical point of view?  Because on the fundamentals another cause for concern is that current cash flow won't even nearly cover the interest payments on their $153M debt.. can't keep that going for too long, unless they sell some more assets


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## Sean K (28 October 2007)

barrett said:


> Kennas was that comment purely from a technical point of view?  Because on the fundamentals another cause for concern is that current cash flow won't even nearly cover the interest payments on their $153M debt.. can't keep that going for too long, unless they sell some more assets



I'm only assuming that because the sp has come off so far that their assets will becoming more and more valuable. Perhaps someone maybe looking to purchase them, keep the best bits, and sell off the rest....


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## Sean K (14 November 2007)

Chart update.

Nothing to see here, just a company imploding.

Move on, move on... 



One of FPs best picks that I've seen. Reco at $3.00 ish.....


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## Sean K (19 November 2007)

1005 [Dow Jones] JPMorgan says current McGuigan Simeon (MGW.AU) share price assumes company will fail, given that broker's estimate of current liquidation value on MGW's asset base is A$1.85 per share. "This underpins long-term value in the stock," analyst says. "It also means that the company's banks are unlikely to wind the company up, as they have more than enough asset backing to allow MGW to trade its way out of the current industry difficulties." Adds, however, until earnings recover, the stock is unlikely to perform. "Hence we believe MGW remains a stock for deep value investors with long investment horizons (3 years)." Maintains at Overweight; last trade A$1.22, down 1 cent. (SVM) 

Any 'deep value investors' out there? LOL

So, current asset base valued at $1.85, and it's current sp is $1.22. Someone just has to be looking at em....

I'm just watching with interest, I'm not a 'deep value investor' at the mo.


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## blaze87 (19 November 2007)

i think what they meant by deep value investors are those who only looks for a baragin without looking at the company...
obviously this company do not have a competitive advantage..
long term debt piling up
profit going down
go figure it out urself


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## Rainmaker2000 (19 November 2007)

I can't believe I'm defending these guys but here goes...hehe....I would not consider buy as its a dishonest company, but for those who follow listed wine stocks, MGW is a better performer and may be the only one left on the ASX after all this...hehe.....they actually operate off some of the lowest cost bases in the world, its just that their more expensive wines cost $15 full price........they do a lot of bulk wine too, which Woolies and Coles has been killing them on....but once other less efficient operators go belly, yes I referring to you Evans & Tate, MGW might actually have some bargaining power

Either way, stay away in this market, there are gems falled from the sky every week......I've recently been buying a stock on a PE of almost 2.....now I've never seen that before..hehe


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## ScottAnders (21 November 2007)

Any discussion on MGW after yesterdays efforts? Seemed like a pretty strong day (and close) to me. I'd love to hear some opinions.


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## Sean K (21 November 2007)

ScottAnders said:


> Any discussion on MGW after yesterdays efforts? Seemed like a pretty strong day (and close) to me. I'd love to hear some opinions.



Seemed to be a pretty positive ann yesterday, indicating that the worst _may_ be over. 



> Australian Wine Industry Showing Signs of Recovery:
> McGuigan Simeon trading positively through difficult conditions​




The market obviously thought so. Up 13% on huge volume.

Could it be a bottom? Time will tell. 

Would like to see their AGM presentaion coming up.


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## badmarty (21 November 2007)

I would stay away from this stock! I'll tell you guys about my dealing with them. I am currently working in Poland and we are doing a fitout for a supermarket chain, I spoke to one of their managers about why they dont stock Australian wine and he said he would be interested in looking at it especialy cheaper lines and cask wine. I contacted MGW and spoke to their a/c manager for Europe who said he would send me some prices but never did. I tried to contact him a couple more times but never got an answer. I contacted a couple more wine producers and they were more than happy to do a deal. It seams crazy for me for a company like MGW that is strugling with their sales to ignore any opportunity like that.


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## Sean K (21 November 2007)

badmarty said:


> I would stay away from this stock! I'll tell you guys about my dealing with them. I am currently working in Poland and we are doing a fitout for a supermarket chain, I spoke to one of their managers about why they dont stock Australian wine and he said he would be interested in looking at it especialy cheaper lines and cask wine. I contacted MGW and spoke to their a/c manager for Europe who said he would send me some prices but never did. I tried to contact him a couple more times but never got an answer. I contacted a couple more wine producers and they were more than happy to do a deal. It seams crazy for me for a company like MGW that is strugling with their sales to ignore any opportunity like that.



I'm not sure if one isolated incident in Poland is an indication of the companies overall management, business model, and future prospects. Nice story though. Perhaps if we get a hundred or so of these we can slap a sell on it?   Cheers, kennas


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## badmarty (21 November 2007)

kennas said:


> I'm not sure if one isolated incident in Poland is an indication of the companies overall management, business model, and future prospects. Nice story though. Perhaps if we get a hundred or so of these we can slap a sell on it?   Cheers, kennas




I dont know about an insolated incident "where there is smoke there is fire" if someone wants to do business with you and you cant be bothered following up on it then you have a problem. There is the old saying in sales "fix your follow up fix your business"


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## Rainmaker2000 (21 November 2007)

I love first hand intelligence.....but ironically MGW is not struggling for sales, especially in Europe.....although they are far more keen on UK than other areas....maybe they just can't be arsed with Poland....not knocking that region, I'm a big fan of their alternative social and tax policy


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## RichKid (21 November 2007)

badmarty said:


> I dont know about an insolated incident "where there is smoke there is fire" if someone wants to do business with you and you cant be bothered following up on it then you have a problem. There is the old saying in sales "fix your follow up fix your business"




There may be a reasonable explanation for this but eitherway it doesn't sound like they have a proactive sales culture if that anecdote is as it sounds. 

Does anyone have any recent reports by Fat Prophets or Macquarie on MGW of late? CommSec has noted that it's trading below NTA, as many have, and expects it to underperform for at least a year. 

There is no way a medium to long term TA trader such as myself would buy this purely on price until there is a strong breakout from the weekly downtrend and a convincing retest of support- just my way of looking at it. 

I have been watching this stock since last year and have been practising my very poor shorting skills via a a loose form of paper trading, not much good for profits but educational. Sharp rallies are common in even the strongest bear markets, no evidence of a trend change here, still no upward momentum imo.


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## Sean K (29 November 2007)

Looks more and more like a bottom. Potential breakout from long term downward trend perhaps. Still, has disappointed again and again, so I'd be wary.

Perhaps Poland has it wrong.


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## Trader Paul (27 December 2007)

Hi folks,

MGW ..... we will be alert for some negative news, soon and
other MGW time cycles in January/February 2008, may be: 

          04-07012008 ... negative news expected here

              16012008 ... 2 cycles ... negative spotlight on MGW

              21012008 ... minor cycle ... finances???

         13-15022008 ... 2 significant and negative cycles ... finances???

             18022008 ... minor and positive

More later ..... 

happy days

 paul



=====


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 December 2007)

Personally I wouldnt touch it with a barge pole, but Kennas may be on the money, unless ASF members got into the turps and bought up yesterday.

Ouch its dropping as I post.

gg


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