# How was your trading in 2013?



## skc (20 December 2013)

2013 is coming to an end, so here's a thread to share some of your own thoughts on the year.

1. How's your overall performance?
2. What did you achieve vs your goals?
3. What were the most memorable events?
4. What are the lessons learnt?
5. What are your goals for 2014?
6. Any other thoughts?

P.S. While there are plenty of personal matters that can be included, please keep it on the topic of trading / investing as much as possible.

P. P.S. In the spirit of the holiday seasons, please keep it all friendly and supportive to anyone who share their thoughts. Think of these as semi-casual Xmas party conversations amongst the ASF community.


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## VSntchr (20 December 2013)

Calendar 2013? Or the financial YTD? 
Ill go for Calendar as the other questions are more relevant to that.

My portfolio started off the year still pretty small by what I imagine many other investors here have (I'm only 23), so I managed to have a pretty satisfying year...without taking overly high risk adjusted returns. That said, the concentrated nature of my portfolio tends to be far riskier than the average portfolio - measured in the usual terms anyway.



1. Return CYD ~60% depending how you measure it (I saved and added quite a chunk of funds this year).

2. Performance goal is set to 15-30%pa so that was satisfied. My learning goals have also been satisfied, with major refinements to my modelling and valuation skillset (this was my biggest goal of the year). Have also implemented a new strategy with a smaller portion of my portfolio which has been performing slightly below expectations - I intend to pursue and improve this once market activity picks up in the new year.

3. Memorable events this year for me included being able to post a great return, despite being subjected to a number of downgrades in companies held. My refined investment plan  has allowed me to exercise a greater degree of risk management by getting out quickly when a criteria no longer exists (hint: management credibility; CDA, CIX etc)

4. Lessons learnt are too many to number, the words already scribed in this post allude to a few. I have amassed substantial knowledge by reading posts of my favourite ASFers..whom I remain forever indebted to for providing such lessons and allowing us all to engage in meaningful discussion.

5. Goals for 2014 are to ensure that my performance is not a fluke and to knuckle down and make sure I consistently perform. I have already begun working on this by spending a substantial amount of time on portfolio management and more in-depth investment analysis. I also have a goal to have my second strategy produce sustainable 15%+ returns.

6. The market has been a wild ride this year and to me it feels its getting wilder as we come to the end. 
Thanks for a great year ASF, especially those posters that have provided me with help, its most appreciated!


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## CanOz (20 December 2013)

Well i didn't have a great year. My intra-day trading, despite several attempts was flat to down. My long term systematic futures portfolio was down 10-15%.

On the bright side i realized that intra-day trading is just not for me and position trading spreads is something that i will put more effort into in the new year. I just feels right, for the first time in three years it just feels like the right time frame, the right risk. Its feels easy....boring but easy...

I have always been honest with myself and those around me about trading. My wish for the new year is that others can be more honest to themselves and others in regards to trading. Too many crooks in this business.

All the best for everyone in the new year! oh... and Merry Christmas!


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## Trembling Hand (20 December 2013)

My year..... Crap... I mean I have to come back next year and do it so it couldn't have been too successful could it..   (Which by the way has just been dramatically pulled forward due to a dislocated shoulder on Monday.  There goes the 6 months of adventure I had planned )

Return?.... Whatever + / 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 is?

What I learnt? Well same thing that I learnt the year before and every year before that. That locals look at the same thing at the same time. Ya just gotta anticipate it and get a position early and ride baby ride. :bowser:

Next year same same but bigger..... (or is that better?... yeah its better (here is a good one I heard recently [_Volume is vanity profit is sanity_]))


Merry F'in X m a ss  :santa:


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## tech/a (20 December 2013)

Good enough.


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## skyQuake (20 December 2013)

In terms of p/l it was great.

However the bread and butter strategies show considerable less profit. Lots of 'one offs'.

Added a few things to the playbook and found a few promising leads on new strategies which is always nice to have.

Memorable? NCM today


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## ROE (20 December 2013)

There my IRR taken from 01/01/2013 - 31/12/2013 including dividend, and options premium
hopefully CFDs will contribute to this fund next year...

I have the best month this December rack in a fair bit of profit
and you guys probably know my style, I don't go by charts.

I go with what I know information wise and guts and when 
I think the price is good I get in and I get out when I am happy with the profit.

Nothing special like most year, it becomes a routine, stack away saving, invest and trade
win some lose some but over all positive return...the only thing I notice that change over 
the year for me is  the longer I am in the market, the more knowledge I accumulate and I dissecting information better  and act accordingly and without fear....

Next year will be the same, hope to accumulate more knowledge, start shorting stocks using CFDs. My theme still long term investing in good business with trading on the side.

my annual family holiday in some far away land from Australia is near at hand so I wish everyone a merry xmas
and a happy new year and may 2014 be a profitable year for all of you.


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## minwa (20 December 2013)

Pretty satisfied but lots of lesson to learn.

I will post in quarters as I assess in quarterly not yearly. Q4 still going got a few sets of trades left

Q1 



Q2



Q3



Had a great ride in Q2 for gold just kept piling on short term high gamma puts as it falls and rolling them. Q1&3 were pretty average nothing stood out in terms of trades had a big dip at the end of Q3 as VIX jumped a little fast caught me off guard did not manage delta neutral trades well.  Compounded to about 67% for 3 quarters satisfied but could've done better if trades were managed properly. 

Lesson for the year is definitely management, keeping on top of markets and trades. Missed some great obvious runs on smaller sectors of the market as I did not diligently look through them routinely. 

Another regret/mistake is cash withdrawals. Really should be cash inflow rather than outflow to build the account.

Looking forward to 2014, I reckon we may see a major turning point in market cycles. Will be looking at smaller portions of trading in equities into better opportunities in other areas of market. Need to focus on catching the few major trends and pyramiding into it

Happy holidays and have great trading in 2014.


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## cynic (20 December 2013)

> 1. How's your overall performance?



Financial Year to date - sswwweeeettttt!!!!!!
Calendar year to date -barely breaking even on account of having been stitched up by the FTSEing DAX earlier this year! 



> 2. What did you achieve vs your goals?



Primary goal achieved. i.e. still trading!
Secondary goal also achieved, namely, improvement of trading performance via refinement of risk management mechanisms within my preferred trading methodologies.
Other goals are still works in progress(.i.e. become the world's richest alien, win gold at the downhill olympics, topple a major bank, persuade Kraft to package their Caramello Koalas right way up etc.) 



> 3. What were the most memorable events?



Winning an email debate with a "Trading Consultant" after he tried to sell me a $4,995.00 weekend forex seminar. 
I now have written proof of the fact that these self proclaimed "Forex Education Specialists" are oblivious to the risks inherent to trading with leverage and are also ignorant of the content of their recommended forex broker's PDS documentation. (I just wish that we had a real financial regulator that I could foward this evidence to and shut these conmen down before they have the opportunity to burn even more members of the unsuspecting populace!).



> 4. What are the lessons learnt?



Don't taunt the DAX! He doesn't take kindly to insults and he has one hell of a ferocious bite!



> 5. What are your goals for 2014?



Continued improvement to my training methodologies and associated outcomes.

Deliver the DAX a long overdue lesson in bourse behaviour!




> 6. Any other thoughts?



Many, but it's best that I save them for a more appropriate thread.


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## So_Cynical (21 December 2013)

Very quiet year for me, i bought a Condo (apartment) in Manila late last year and spent 2013 paying it off and i found it impossible to trade normally and pay for the condo at the same time, i sold about 20% of my portfolio to part fund the purchase so have realized some significant % profits.

YOY total portfolio profit of around 15% down from the 22% average of the last 3 years....back to normal in 2014.


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## kid hustlr (21 December 2013)

skc said:


> 1. How's your overall performance?
> I can't complain, made the move to prop early in April, treaded water/learned the game for the first few months, then took the plunge and struggled initially yet the last couple of months I truly I feel I've had some 'aha' moments and the results have turned around accordingly. It's now time to take the next step and my confidence is sky high. It's nice to know 'I can do this' given the fact that 3 months ago I wasn't sure if I would still be in the game come Xmas
> 
> 2. What did you achieve vs your goals?
> ...






Trembling Hand said:


> *
> What I learnt? Well same thing that I learnt the year before and every year before that. That locals look at the same thing at the same time. Ya just gotta anticipate it and get a position early and ride baby ride.*
> 
> This This This




...


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 December 2013)

Better than 2012.

Not struggling as much with whipsaws. 

Consistent profits and small losses.

Waiting a wave 3

< 15% profit but more than 10% overall.

gg


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## RADO (21 December 2013)

1. How's your overall performance? - pretty good better than last year 

2. What did you achieve vs your goals? - created my first automated trading system and ran it on MT4            

3. What were the most memorable events? - Watching my MT4 EA place its first trade on its own  and using Multicharts for the first time awesome platform!

4. What are the lessons learnt? - don't trade FX and Futures during the Xmas period (markets are to crazy) I'm  better off using that time to relax or travel


5. What are your goals for 2014? To run my Futures trading strategy as an automated one at least partially.

6. Any other thoughts? Keep doing what I'm doing try not to procrastinate to much.


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## skc (24 December 2013)

Thanks every for their response so far. It's great to see many people being happy with their year.

Here are my own responses.

*1. How's your overall performance?*
Overall I give myself B+. I made more absolute profit in 2013 than any previous years, but that's mostly a function increase in size traded rather than actual % return. The % return was probably a few points below average but certainly well within acceptable ranges. The equity curve was pretty smooth.

*2. What did you achieve vs your goals?*
I achieved the absolute $ profit goal so that was good. I also wanted to improve my directional trading (in addition to my usual pairs trading) which I think I am getting better at.  I probably didn't size up as quickly and confidently as I wanted to, so that's the main focus area for next year.

*What were the most memorable events?*
FGE and MMS were the two names that come to mind.. We all know that anything is possible in the market - but ASX200 company that gaps 50% and 90%... it almost broke my correlation calculator (I think the divergence was like a 15-sigma event or something like that). There were also a few near misses - like holding a large line on WRT when the merger proposal was announced. Having so much money on the line meant that I wasn't able to assess the announcement with a clear head. Boy did I stress about it for an hour before it opened... 

*4. What are the lessons learnt?*
- Getting out when there's potential market moving news is one of fundamentals of my risk management. I broke that rule once and it result in my largest loss for the year. It was an expensive lesson.

Other than that, nothing too specific but really just need to trust myself, keep calm and keep trading even in the face of a bad trade/day/week. 

*5. What are your goals for 2014?*
- Trade bigger. Sizing up has been a constant struggle in 2013. There's the mental adjustment in P&L and there's the actual entry/exit execution of a larger line which becomes tricker the bigger you trade. By the end of 2014 if I can trade another 2.5x my current size comfortably I'd be pretty happy.
- Go harder at the start. I have been reasonably good at interpreting specific news and reaction correctly. But it's a complete waste of an opportunity if I don't put a decent size on in such events. I should build position up to my limit and ride it.
- There's a specific $ profit goal as well.

*6. Any other thoughts?*
2014 will be a busy year. We are moving early in the year, and we will have a new addition to the family mid year. So while the goals above are important, there are plenty of other stuff to take care of. Need to get the balance right.

Anyhow... Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to you all.


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## waza1960 (24 December 2013)

Re: How was your trading in 2013?
1. How's your overall performance?  Continued Improvement which is all one can ask really!

2. What did you achieve vs your goals? - pretty well achieved goals as wisely didn't have any goals relating to a level of profit. 

 3. What were the most memorable events? - Selling out my AUD-USD positions (short) after 9 mths of holding and then watching AUD dropping like a rock two weeks later.

 4. What are the lessons learnt? - too many to list but ..................
    Automated Trading=trusting the strategy totally and allowing for do not trade conditions during some news announcements.
 Discretionary Trading= don't hang onto losing positions i.e. respect holding times


 5. What are your goals for 2014? To increase trade size in both systems and discretionary trading= make a crapload of money

 6. Any other thoughts? Improve life balance have a bit more fun life's short


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## Klogg (24 December 2013)

This is a great idea for a thread!

My answers below:

*1. How's your overall performance?*
Probably give myself a 70% here... My returns were good, but that wasn't the problem. I found myself not going in hard when opportunities slapped me in the face (40-50% MOS, but just too scared to go with my analysis TBH).

*2. What did you achieve vs your goals?*
I've learnt MUCH faster than expected (thanks to the people on these forums mostly) and beat the index, although I had no specific goals in mind at the start of the year.
However, I do now have a process that is clearly defined for achieving a valuation.

*3. What were the most memorable events?*
For me, probably watching MMS and FGE plummet and cursing that I hadn't done my homework. The trading halt was warning enough for me to do map out the potential outcomes and plan my actions accordingly.

*4. What are the lessons learnt?*
Along with the point mentioned in Q3, I've also learnt to go with my analysis. I'm sure I'll question it again in the future, but I'm far more confident in myself now than I was this time last year.

*5. What are your goals for 2014?*
Keep digging, keep learning - and eventually aiming to test myself in overseas equity markets.

*6. Any other thoughts?*
Just to thank skc, McLovin, ROE, Ves and craft. Your expertise and willingness to help a newbie like me is why I come here.


Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all.


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## MichaelD (28 December 2013)

I haven't posted here since 2010. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. I thought I'd share a little of my journey and this thread seemed to be the most appropriate to post in.

It was always my goal to make trading my full-time occupation. It took me 5 years, but I think I can safely say that I have achieved this in 2013.

I have fully replaced my existing income and then some.

I take a wage out of the markets virtually every single week.

I have all but completely ceased my old job.


Some comments on how I did this:

 - I trade the ASX200, completing anything from 2 - 20 trades per day. This allows for a weekly income stream.

 - I trade long and short.

 - This year I made almost equal money long and short but I spent most of my time long.

 - The more I concentrated on trade management the more profitable I became. More precisely, the better I controlled my risk the more profitable I became.

 - My trade entry has virtually *nothing* to do with my profitability. I use no indicators other than price. If the price is going up, I buy. If the price is going down, I sell (or short sell).

 - I automate my trading as much as possible. I don't need to screen watch 24 hours a day, but I do need to have ready access to a trading platform at all times.


Goals for 2014:
- The system I trade has scaled 10 fold this year in position size. I suspect it can't scale too much further, so I need to deal with that.
- I'd like my trading to be even more automated than it already is.
- I will continue to develop and improve my risk control.


ps it's good to see many of the old, familiar faces are still here, and still getting what they want out of the market.


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## CanOz (28 December 2013)

Wow, amazing, welcome back MichaelD...i recall your posts very well. Hope you stick around a bit this time!


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## galumay (28 December 2013)

1. How's your overall performance?

I only entered the market in June, and as my strategy is basically long term value investment I am not sure how much emphasis can be put on my performance. I have bettered the market by a nice margin FWIW.

2. What did you achieve vs your goals?

I think in the context of my strategy, any time I beat the index it means i am heading in the right direction to achieving my goal

3. What were the most memorable events?

Getting into MMS at a good price!

4. What are the lessons learnt?

The biggest lesson was when i fell for the FOMO, broke my personal strategy rules, took an incorrect position size in the wrong place! Luckily realised my mistake and sold out the next day for a small profit. 

5. What are your goals for 2014?

Pretty low key for me, I am fully invested in terms of my asset allocation and I have a year of massive change in other areas of my life.

6. Any other thoughts?

My 'success' is as much a result of what I have learnt from the members of ASF as anything else. I have read more books this last 6 months than the previous 6 years and read more than half of the whole intrawebs thingy - but its you guys that have provided most. Thanks in particular to ROE, Ves, Craft, SKC, Robusta, KTP, Value Hunter, McLovin, Klogg, thanks also to traders like CanOz, Tech/a and Pavillion103 - you guys have also helped me even though your philosophy is very different.

ASF is a truly wonderful resource for the investor.


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## Newt (11 January 2014)

Ramped up position sizes after starting small in trend trading.  Returns nothing spectacular but very pleased my education didn't include going backwards, and not that far off what was expected.

Soaked up stacks of valuable info - what a great forum.

Liked this TH quote:

_"The NEED to learn SOMETHING inside and out till its mastered then move on to adding another trick. Year after year its an unbelievably powerful process."_​
Starting to survey the terrain for my next trick when time allows.  Expect I may end up with different ideas or strategies than I expected right now at this moment.  In the meantime stay consistent with what I've learned and developed and build up the war chest slowly.


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## matty77 (11 January 2014)

*1. How's your overall performance?*
Good and bad...
Sold 60% of portfolio and bought another house, break even sale here, sold some winners and some losers.
Other 40% I kept and they are up about 100% end of financial year.
Got lucky with early buy in with TPG @ $1.48 on above helped a lot, sounds better then it is but still happy overall.
Cashed out on big $ shares within a business with nice return of approx 200% over the last 5 years. That money to purchase another house in 2014 and a fair wack back into shares again.
Overall not a bad year, I am hoping 14 to be better.

*2. What did you achieve vs your goals?*
Didnt plan on selling ANY shares so bit disappointed I did, but then again I bought a house so ... meh.

*3. What were the most memorable events?*
TPG and my tax bill..

*4. What are the lessons learnt?*
I don't care how much you pay me, working in a job I enjoy is priority. Best thing I ever did this year was change jobs completely to spend more time with the kids. 

*5. What are your goals for 2014?*
Buy another house and hopefully still hold a nice diverse portfolio of shares.
Complete the budget and stick to it this year!!!!

*6. Any other thoughts?*
nope.


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## tech/a (12 January 2014)

Matt
With such an impressive return on share investment/Trading
Why the heavy diversification into property?


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## matty77 (12 January 2014)

The big one was because I was working for the business and had shares in it, but recently changed jobs so had to cash out of those shares. Recently moving to Melbourne decided to put some against the house and some back into other shares. Also will leave an amount aside for investment into another business or if opportunity knocks from somewhere else. TBA on that.

I'm comfortable with my diversification at the moment, but over the next 5-10 years will be putting additional into shares as well to level against too much property and try and get back to level pegging on those 2.

The share return sounds more impressive then it is, its good yes for sure but there is no way I will repeat it again, absolutely not, was very lucky in a few situations, everything came my way and I put my nuts on the line.. plus having shares in a business that you work for means you can increase value by working your @#%$ off. This is also one of the reasons I left, dont like having that hanging over your head when you are working - its not a good feeling IMHO...


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## VSntchr (12 January 2014)

matty77 said:


> plus having shares in a business that you work for means you can increase value by working your @#%$ off. This is also one of the reasons I left, dont like having that hanging over your head when you are working - its not a good feeling IMHO...




Personally I have a complete opposite mantra and love nothing more than the motivation and satisfaction and eventual security that the above conditions would lead to.


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## galumay (13 January 2014)

matty77 said:


> T This is also one of the reasons I left, dont like having that hanging over your head when you are working - its not a good feeling IMHO...




I am with you there, did it once and at the end of the day its a conflict of interest, company's priority is always the shareholder interest and thats different to employee interest. I found I was sacrificing quality of life and family time and in reality the company didnt give a &$*% and were never going to reward me at shareholder's expense.

Its a clever ploy by big companies in particular, to try to get the employees to be shareholders and utilise the inherent conflict of interest to their advantage.


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## matty77 (13 January 2014)

yup 100% correct there.

its all good nowdays, new job, very happy! 

should have done it years ago..


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## AlterEgo (14 January 2014)

*1. How's your overall performance?*
I made a 59.6% return on my trading account equity over the course of 2013.

*2. What did you achieve vs your goals?*
Exceeded my goals.

*3. What were the most memorable events?*
Most memorable event was probably just in seeing the work I have put in to my trading system finally starting to pay off, and producing the largest yearly return that I have had to date.

*4. What are the lessons learnt?*
I learnt that I need to take every trade that the system says. When I first started trading this system I would often not enter certain trades (or take a smaller position size in) trades that looked too risky. Since I have learnt to trust the system and take all trades, my returns have improved substantially.

*5. What are your goals for 2014?*
Goal for 2014 is to try to make a similar return to what I made in 2013 and compound those profits!

*6. Any other thoughts?*
I'm not looking forward to my tax bill.


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## tech/a (14 January 2014)

AlterEgo said:


> *1. How's your overall performance?*
> I made a 59.6% return on my trading account equity over the course of 2013.
> *2. What did you achieve vs your goals?*
> Exceeded my goals.
> ...




Tremendous result

Your trading stock or futs?


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## AlterEgo (14 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Tremendous result
> 
> Your trading stock or futs?




Stocks


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## tech/a (14 January 2014)

AlterEgo said:


> Stocks




I'm interested that your taking *EVERY* signal.
What's your average hold period and average 
number of open positions.

60% from a system is a remarkable return!


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## Porper (14 January 2014)

AlterEgo said:


> *1. How's your overall performance?*
> I made a 59.6% return on my trading account equity over the course of 2013.




Trading the U.S markets this was achievable but I can't see it trading the ASX. Mind you we are on a forum so anything is possible.


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## AlterEgo (14 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> I'm interested that your taking *EVERY* signal.
> What's your average hold period and average
> number of open positions.
> 
> 60% from a system is a remarkable return!




I actually wasn't aware that my 2013 return was quite as high as that until I checked my statements for this thread, as I've been tracking my performance on a financial year basis rather than calender year. Last financial year I returned around 35%, but most of that return was in the second half of the financial year after loosening one of my system filters to get more trades, as it was producing few trade signals before that. It's done well in the first half of this financial year - was up over 42% at one point, but now, in the new year, it's gone in to drawdown. Hopefully it recovers from the drawdown quickly and makes a strong finish for the financial year. Time will tell though.

Well I am position sizing to hold up to around 6 positions. At any one time I could be holding no positions, or up to around 10 if I'm getting lots of signals around the same time, using margin to take the extra signals. Most of the time I'm probably only holding up to 3-4 at any one time though.

Average holding period is around 5 days.

Well I don't quite take EVERY signal. There is the odd occasion that I won't take a trade, such as not having enough equity to take it, stock going ex-div, stock under takeover offer, things like that. Otherwise I'll take every signal that I can. When I tried to cherry pick, I found that I would then miss the most profitable trades.


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## Porper (15 January 2014)

AlterEgo said:


> Last financial year I returned around 35%.




So again are you trading the ASX or overseas markets?


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## AlterEgo (15 January 2014)

Porper said:


> So again are you trading the ASX or overseas markets?




Just the ASX at the moment. I've been meaning to get some US data to test the system on to see if it works on their market too. Since the stocks often don't have a great deal of liquidity, the system is not likely to scale up well, so at some point (assuming that the system continues to perform) I'm going to need to diversify in to other markets, and or other systems.


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## Porper (15 January 2014)

AlterEgo said:


> Just the ASX at the moment.




Well done, a near 60.0% rise is exceptional on the ASX...that's almost too good to be true from a Systematic system. Must be one hell of a system.


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## beachlife (15 January 2014)

Porper said:


> *that's almost too good to be true *from a Systematic system.




Why?


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## Porper (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> Why?




Take a look at the XSO chart and you'll see.


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## Trembling Hand (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> Why?




...from a Systematic system.


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## elbee (15 January 2014)

Porper said:


> Well done, a near 60.0% rise is exceptional on the ASX...that's almost too good to be true from a Systematic system. Must be one hell of a system.




That sort of return is quite possible for ASX mechanical systems. I have traded a system taking weekly signals that has returned from 15% to 120% in each of the last 6 years. However these returns are only available to smaller accounts (in my case 50-75K with up to 10 open positions) due to low liquidity on some of the traded stocks. Such systems rely on being in the market at the right time and going to cash (or short index positions) when market momentum declines.


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## cynic (15 January 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> ...from a Systematic system.




Has anyone ever been able to achieve greater than 0% returns from an unsystematic system?


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## beachlife (15 January 2014)

Porper said:


> Take a look at the XSO chart and you'll see.




Index results are irrelevant to active traders.

Have a look at some stocks, BHP, WOW, CBA, AMP, TLS.  I see lots of short term trades.

Systematic doesnt necessarily mean black box or scripted.

AlterEgo, dont let these guys pull you down, you have a great result to build upon this year.  Well done!!


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## Trembling Hand (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> Systematic doesnt necessarily mean black box or scripted.




Err *yes *it does!!!!! 



beachlife said:


> AlterEgo, dont let these guys pull you down, you have a great result to build upon this year.  Well done!!




I am not trying to "pull down" anyone. Just saying that a 60% return on an EOD system is at the upper end, especially the ASX the last few years.


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## Porper (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> Index results are irrelevant to active traders.




You really believe that? if using a mechanical system the performance of the relevant index has a major bearing unless you are a very short term trader.




beachlife said:


> AlterEgo, dont let these guys pull you down, you have a great result to build upon this year.  Well done!!




I don't see anybody trying to pull anyone down. Asking questions and even questioning results is part and parcel of being involved in a forum; especially when you post strong results.


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## tech/a (15 January 2014)

Porper said:


> Well done, a near 60.0% rise is exceptional on the ASX...that's almost too good to be true from a Systematic system. Must be one hell of a system.




The only way that this COULD occur is taking every trade/compounding
Cherry picking trades would mean that the trades taken are being perfectly filtered into the very best trades by a discretionary filter.
These trades would be reflected in the higher end results returned from Monte Carlo analysis.(Where you would see if it were indeed even possible).

Then if he was to design a Neural network system Vanstone has proven a 100% and better return from even mediocre systems--here 60% would not be un common---particularly in very short timeframe design.


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## beachlife (15 January 2014)

LOL...ground hog day.


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## tech/a (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> LOL...ground hog day.




So it appears.
Tends to flush us out!


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## beachlife (15 January 2014)

yep always the same 3 people.

Check this out, these guys made around 26% in 3 months, fully audited....I guess these results will be rejected because it's just a game, even though they are mirror trades.
https://www9.asx.com.au/smg/newsletter.htm


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## Trembling Hand (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> yep always the same 3 people.
> 
> Check this out, these guys made around 26% in 3 months, fully audited....I guess these results will be rejected because it's just a game, even though they are mirror trades.
> https://www9.asx.com.au/smg/newsletter.htm




Groundhog day indeed.

Funny thing is beachlife you ask a question then refused to even try to understand where the answer is coming from. NO ONE is saying that 60% is not achievable.


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## beachlife (15 January 2014)

No its never said it out right.  The implication that the results are untrue comes through from rubbish like 

"Mind you we are on a forum so anything is possible"
"the only way this could occur.."
"too good to be true"

and usually from the same people.


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## tech/a (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> No its never said it out right.  The implication that the results are untrue comes through from rubbish like
> 
> "Mind you we are on a forum so anything is possible"
> "the only way this could occur.."
> ...




Yeh comments like that come from experience.
Lots of it in those selected.

AE himself admits to current drawdown.
Im sure he knows exactly where we are coming from.
He would also understand our trepidation and I'm sure would hold 
a similar view himself with regard to many comments on this and any other forum.

Ill give YOU cred when you trade live 
In the meantime -----


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## elbee (15 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> The only way that this COULD occur is taking every trade/compounding
> Cherry picking trades would mean that the trades taken are being perfectly filtered into the very best trades by a discretionary filter.




Not so.
I trade a 100% mechanical system on the ASX without using margin or compounding and achieve results in line with those reported by AlterEgo.

Attached is a part of my IB statement for the period July- Dec 2013.
The statement shows the individual stocks traded and the profits and losses generated from each.
This is a $100,000 account. $60,000 is used to finance the ASX trades (up to 10 positions at $6,000 each). The remaining $40,000 is used for margin for short term SPI futures trading (up to 5 contracts. Profit from the ASX system for the 6 months is $17K which is 28% for the period or 56%pa. Futures trading produced annualised return of 80%.

Now before anyone gets too excited most of the profits from tha ASX system are unrealised at 31 Dec and this is only a 6 months period. Also you will see that many of the stocks are small capital stocks and so the system is restricted in scaleability.

However the point is that these results are consistent with what I have seen over a number of years and confirm that 60%pa is achieveable from the ASX.  

Internet forums attract all sorts of self-professed experts. There is an old saying that goes something like "those who can - do,  those who can't - go on the internet."


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## tech/a (15 January 2014)

elbee said:


> Not so.
> I trade a 100% mechanical system on the ASX without using margin or compounding and achieve results in line with those reported by AlterEgo.
> 
> Attached is a part of my IB statement for the period July- Dec 2013.
> ...




Annualised return are you kidding!
Including Futures are you also kidding.
The points in question are with regard to a 12 mth method 
IE last 12 mths, and Stock!

*Talk about cherry picking.*
Now its results.

My trade on the DAX tonight gives me an annualized return of $375000 with $34000 starting equity.(1,100% annualized)
Can oz hasn't a chance!!!

Read what T/H has said---again.



> NO ONE is saying that 60% is not achievable.




So why the angst???


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## IFocus (15 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> No its never said it out right.  The implication that the results are untrue comes through from rubbish like
> 
> "Mind you we are on a forum so anything is possible"
> "the only way this could occur.."
> ...




To be fair over the years (some of us have been at this + 20 years) there has been x amount of scamers etc turning up with claims that have failed to be substantiated. 

There are always exceptions and outliers hopefully you are one.


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## AlterEgo (24 February 2014)

I just thought I'd post a quick update. I was in drawdown when I posted before, but things have really turned around over the last few weeks!! See attached.


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