# SEN - Senetas Corporation



## Lachlan6 (21 October 2005)

Senetas continues to rise and gain strength, with today being very strong. I bought some a couple of days back at $0.43 and think this trend has a lot left in it. This week SEN broke important resistance at $0.37, it actually smashed through it on huge volume and with a nice white candle. It has formed a huge base from mid 2001 to late 2004, providing a good point for a strong trend up. It is also supported by a strong OBV. The points I like about Senetas, is it is very strong fundamentally with predicted further growth this year and next. Secondly the company is not a penny dreadful, actually it is in the top 300, while it pays a yield around 4% and is not overpriced with a PE of around 21. Really like this stock, Something for every one else to think about maybe.


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## johnno261 (22 October 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				Lachlan6 said:
			
		

> Senetas continues to rise and gain strength, with today being very strong. I bought some a couple of days back at $0.43 and think this trend has a lot left in it. This week SEN broke important resistance at $0.37, it actually smashed through it on huge volume and with a nice white candle. It has formed a huge base from mid 2001 to late 2004, providing a good point for a strong trend up. It is also supported by a strong OBV. The points I like about Senetas, is it is very strong fundamentally with predicted further growth this year and next. Secondly the company is not a penny dreadful, actually it is in the top 300, while it pays a yield around 4% and is not overpriced with a PE of around 21. Really like this stock, Something for every one else to think about maybe.




Stock worth thinking about, but try not to think about The Director too much!!!!! ha ha


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## Lachlan6 (22 October 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Why? What's wrong with him/her?


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## amohonour (26 October 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Personally was recomended to me around .30 waited waited and waited but finally got in at .50 idiot should have listened  great long term profit making coy. Northbound.


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## johnno261 (13 November 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				amohonour said:
			
		

> Personally was recomended to me around .30 waited waited and waited but finally got in at .50 idiot should have listened  great long term profit making coy. Northbound.




Amohonour, not so much of an idiot at all. You must be happy with progress of S/P. Do you have any idea of how many units are  left in the companys buyback? 
Cheers


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## trader10 (18 November 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Nice ann today IMHO.

SENETAS APPOINTS NEW DIRECTOR TO BOARD

Senetas strengthens its position in the global high-speed network encryption
market with appointment of military intelligence expert
Melbourne, 18 November 2005 – Senetas Corporation (ASX: SEN), the worlds leading highspeed
network encryption hardware company, is pleased to announce the appointment of
retired Major General J.M. Connolly, AO, CSC to the board.
Senetas’ Chairman, Mr Francis Gabally, said that Major General Connolly’s appointment is a
significant development for the company, and reflects Senetas’ continued strong focus on
building a leading global security and encryption company. His appointment is part of Senetas’
plans to strengthen the board and position the company for its next stage of growth.
“Having someone of the Major General’s calibre on the board will considerably boost Senetas’
capacity to expand its global market share in the military and government sector. He has led a
distinguished career over almost four decades in the Australian Defence Force and has
particular expertise in military intelligence and secure communications,” Mr Galbally said.
“In addition, Major General Connolly’s depth of knowledge and relationships in military
organisations around the world will be invaluable as the company aims to increase total
worldwide sales to A$250 million within the next three years. He will add considerable value to
our current relationship with our technology partner SafeNet, as we continue to expand our
current product road map.”
Major General Connolly has held a number of very senior positions in the Australian Defence
Force including Australian Theatre Commander at Garden Island, Colonel Commandment of
the Royal Australian Regiment, and Director of the Defence Intelligence Organisation. He has
played a key role in providing defence intelligence to the Australian Government and
maintaining Australian military intelligence links with allies.
Major General Connolly was awarded the Officer of the Order of Australia in 1995 for his
contribution to the Australian Defence Force in the areas of operations and military intelligence.
The appointment of Major General Connolly is another step in Senetas’ aim of becoming
Australia’s leading technology company, specialising in encryption security, with significant
global presence.

---------------------

Also interesting to notice that Safenet did very well on Nasdaq last night....

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=SFNT

SAFENET INC (RT-ECN)    
Symbol: SFNT 
Last Trade: 35.88 4:02PM ET 
After Hours Change:  0.01 (0.03%) 
Today's Change:  + $1.71 (5.00%) 
Bid: 25.00 
Ask: 36.57 

SafeNet to Present at the First Analysis Investment Conference in NYC
Wednesday November 16, 9:37 am ET 


BALTIMORE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 16, 2005--SafeNet, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFNT - News), setting the standard for information security, today announced that SafeNet will present on Thursday, November 17, 2005 at 2:45 p.m. EST at the First Analysis Investment Conference in New York City, to be held at The New York Palace Hotel.

Form 8-K for SAFENET INC 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17-Nov-2005

Entry into Material Agreement



Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. 
On November 14, 2005, SafeNet, Inc. ("SafeNet") entered into a Purchase Agreement with SafeNet Technologies, B.V., a subsidiary of SafeNet ("SafeNet B.V."), and the shareholders of Eracom Technologies AG, a company incorporated under the laws of Germany ("Eracom"), pursuant to which SafeNet B.V. will acquire all of the equity interests of Eracom (the "Acquisition"). The aggregate consideration to be paid to the shareholders of Eracom in connection with the Acquisition is approximately $25 million in cash. The Acquisition is subject to certain closing conditions and is expected to close in December 2005. Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. 
(a) Financial statements: None. 
(b) Pro forma financial information: None. 
(c) Exhibits: None.


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## amohonour (23 November 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

sorry johno i dont know at all and will say yes i am happy with progress atm


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## johnno261 (24 November 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				amohonour said:
			
		

> sorry johno i dont know at all and will say yes i am happy with progress atm




I bought a million units of this stock, this time last year at 18cents and sold out in the low 40's 2 weeks later. Just wished i had of held atleast a small portion. Never mind.Who knows, maybe trading at a great entry point now, but only time will tell!


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## tarnor (3 December 2005)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Amazing chart, kicked hard out of the flag on friday with huge volume..  Going to look back and see if this one leaks before news.. might have a stab on monday if it still looks solid


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## pete152 (1 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

It seems to going from strength to strength. Can it keep it up?
Cheers,
Peter


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## johnno261 (5 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				pete152 said:
			
		

> It seems to going from strength to strength. Can it keep it up?
> Cheers,
> Peter




I do believe we have not seen anything yet with this stock. Next few weeks will be interesting!!!!! T/O manouvres will ascend s/p into $$'s range!!


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## johnno261 (6 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Does anybody know if SEN has announced a government based contract with relation to "Centrelink"?


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## johnno261 (7 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Just read an interesting article that i found via google news page and typing in "SAFENET INC."  A top US analyst,Brean Murray stated on the 15th December, that a Safenet target of $48.00 on the DJIA was the outlook for 2006. Currently trading @ I think $31.00   His reason was the demand to being able to supply voice data and computer related data in a secure environment, was a key driving factor for worldwide demand.

Safenet to those whom know, sell SENETAS ENCRYPTORS. It will be really interesting to see as Senetas Encryptors which are used my the US military,Major US Banks etc etc, will be interesting to see this stock go from strenght to strength in 2006. I guess my view is similiar to many of the top analysts that placed Senetas as the no.2 pick for 2006!!!! I watch with great interest!!!!!!


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## johnno261 (9 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

SEN held ground very well today and having just perused @ the chart, tomorrow could be interesting, particulary if big bids come on pre opening @ 77.5/78 as a breakout above next resistance level of 80 cents means the skies the limit particulary if reinforcement of good news announcements regarding new contracts come to fruition!!
********WATCH THIS STOCK**********


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## TheAnalyst (9 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> SEN held ground very well today and having just perused @ the chart, tomorrow could be interesting, particulary if big bids come on pre opening @ 77.5/78 as a breakout above next resistance level of 80 cents means the skies the limit particulary if reinforcement of good news announcements regarding new contracts come to fruition!!
> ********WATCH THIS STOCK**********




This is a great stock...i wish i bought in at 29 cents...and believed the directors forecast in regards to earnings growth.


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## johnno261 (10 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> This is a great stock...i wish i bought in at 29 cents...and believed the directors forecast in regards to earnings growth.




I got in @ 18cents originally, and i have put my money where my mouth is and bought another few hundred thousand units last week at low 70's.  Todays depth was very bullish and hit 81 and closed at 79. The next few weeks will be very interesting and I do believe in SENETAS product and so does one of the biggest IT security company's in USA (SAFENET INC.)!!! SAFENET's forecast is very strong and I am sure this will have a flow on effect to SENETAS!!! 
My opinion is that this company's end is near due to a Takeover!! Just my opinion!!!! I maybe wrong!!


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## johnno261 (10 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

SENETAS had a mention today in The Herald Sun under the headline"CYBER TERRORISM". People are finally waking up to this stock!!!


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## johnno261 (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Indicative Price for opening appears to be 80 cents, however as I have been watching this stock closely the past week, have also noticed depth on buy side not big, but accumulation taking place from off screen!!!!
Volumes picking up gradually. I think 4 mill thru yesterday.


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## TheAnalyst (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Any one know off the top of their heads what the earnings forecast is and what the growth in earnings has been projected to be over the next few yrs??


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## slimtrader (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Latest management confirmation at $11m before tax for 2006 (June). expected to pay full tax thus $7.7m in NPAT. Relates to P/E of 47 at current levels.


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## TheAnalyst (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				slimtrader said:
			
		

> Latest management confirmation at $11m before tax for 2006 (June). expected to pay full tax thus $7.7m in NPAT. Relates to P/E of 47 at current levels.




Do u know the full year 2005 as well?


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## slimtrader (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

SEN did $7.4m before tax for 2005 FY. $11m after tax due to large tax credit


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## Profitseeker (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

On the chart it looks like it has broken out.


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## Profitseeker (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

I am new at this charting business so if this  is wrong forgive me but to me it looks like it has broken out with a price of 0.84 today.

I currently have a stop loss set at 0.75 I'm looking for some feedback on this (opinion only of course)


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## johnno261 (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

SEN just warming up. Strong day closing on daily high of 85 cents, with 6.5million units thru the doors!!!  Would expect it to "GAP UP" tomorrow morning with a scramble no doubt. Big Buy units going thru today.
Happy Viewing!!!!!


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## TheAnalyst (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

This stock is a "Raging Bull" if ever I've seen one...


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## TheAnalyst (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

I would like to purchase senetas, but my only concern is the p/e ratio being high...would appreciate further comment on this issue


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## johnno261 (11 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> SEN just warming up. Strong day closing on daily high of 85 cents, with 6.5million units thru the doors!!!  Would expect it to "GAP UP" tomorrow morning with a scramble no doubt. Big Buy units going thru today.
> Happy Viewing!!!!!




I know FG has been O/S and is due back 14/01/06. New is that he was in phase1 of neg. re SEN. A few admirers i hear, so i sit back and enjoy the view from the sidelines!!!!


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## johnno261 (12 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Another solid day of trading with roughly  nearly 6 million units thru and closed @ 86.5. Vols have definately picked up. Something interesting for those that cannot see individual breakdown of market depths. Two large parcels went thru after 16:00 at roughly 16:12. (2 parcels of 140,000).  Something is definately brewing and some pos. news cant be far off!!!
Tomorrow may push it within the 91 cent region and if it happens to break thru, could go anywhere!!!!!!


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## johnno261 (12 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Those whom are interested, go to HotCopper and peruse the target price a poster called "AIM FOR SIMON" has revealed for SEN. They are the exact same figures roughly that i have calculated, hence my bullishness for this stock, and why I really think a Take Over is iminent!!!!!


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## johnno261 (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Did anybody listen to ABC NEWSRADIO today between 17:00-18:00? The Business segment, was based on the world wide demand to prevent CYBER TERRORISM. It basically said that BIG corporations are only now realising how important it is to use Data Encryptors to prevent Hijacking of data information between transactions, which would be highly embarrassing. I hold SEN with much excitement!!!


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## TheAnalyst (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Check out the flags?????


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## johnno261 (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

How awesome does that look ANALyst!!!!! Very Bullish indeed!!! Was looking at it yesterday!!!! Very Cool!!!!!!


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## TheAnalyst (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> How awesome does that look ANALyst!!!!! Very Bullish indeed!!! Was looking at it yesterday!!!! Very Cool!!!!!!




its having a name change to "Flagnetas"


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## johnno261 (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

AAAAAAAAaaaaaahhhhhhh     Very Good ANALyst!!!!!!


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## TheAnalyst (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> AAAAAAAAaaaaaahhhhhhh     Very Good ANALyst!!!!!!




it is good ehhhhh JhOHMMo261


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## johnno261 (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Analyst, have you done your homework on the great SENorita!!!!  As per your BOX chart, Flag pole ready to go up and another flag at over $1.


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## TheAnalyst (14 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> ANALyst, have you done your homework on the great SENorita!!!!  As per your BOX chart, Flag pole ready to go up and another flag at over $1. My flag pole is ready to go up too!!!




wats with me name these days....u bored or something and want to start up the s*** again??

Its been on my watchlist also traded it numerous times in the dot.com era


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## johnno261 (15 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*

Just finished perusing at The Age Business Section. As a general perception amongst analysts, the IT/TECH sector will start to shine in 2006!! Go SENorita!


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## TheAnalyst (15 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Just finished perusing at The Age Business Section. As a general perception amongst analysts, the IT/TECH sector will start to shine in 2006!! Go SENorita!




Hi Johnno

Have you done any homework on what senetas yrl net profit increases are likely to be over the next 3-5 yrs?


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## johnno261 (15 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Hi Johnno
> 
> Have you done any homework on what senetas yrl net profit increases are likely to be over the next 3-5 yrs?




As the Company stated, they are expecting ann. profits to be $250mill within 3 years. As for trying to ascertain what the profit increases are likely to be over the next few years, well it is very much up in the air. Galbally stated that contracts will be "LUMPY". In other words may have a huge first half of each fin. year and minimal contracts for the remainding 6 months!!! or vice versa!!
You got to remember that this product is not an everyday requirement, however having said that, Businesses wordwide are realising that Corporate Data etc. needs to be very secure!!!!


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## TheAnalyst (15 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> As the Company stated, they are expecting ann. profits to be $250mill within 3 years. As for trying to ascertain what the profit increases are likely to be over the next few years, well it is very much up in the air. Galbally stated that contracts will be "LUMPY". In other words may have a huge first half of each fin. year and minimal contracts for the remainding 6 months!!! or vice versa!!
> You got to remember that this product is not an everyday requirement, however having said that, Businesses wordwide are realising that Corporate Data etc. needs to be very secure!!!!




Is that $250mil net profit or before EBITDA, EBIT?

Do Senetas have any competitors or any emerging competitors?

Also taken into account that it would be highly unlikely for an organisation to change providers once Senetas has established themselves with the customer


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## johnno261 (15 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Is that $250mil net profit or before EBITDA, EBIT?
> 
> Do Senetas have any competitors or any emerging competitors?
> 
> Also taken into account that it would be highly unlikely for an organisation to change providers once Senetas has established themselves with the customer




I, yes yes your last paragraph. You are correct and this is what makes this stock even stronger in terms of  loyalty sales


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## 123enen (15 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Is that $250mil net profit or before EBITDA, EBIT?




From my reading and understanding  of Senetas announcements the $250 Million is actually *world wide sales of security encryptor products*. 
They are hoping to increase world wide sales from $28 Million now to $250 Million in 3 years.

Total world wide sales of security products in 2005 financial year was $28 Million

*But total worldwide sales is a little misleading.* This is not necessarily Senetas sales/revenue, as a lot of Senetas’ product is sold by agents, particularly SafeNet in the USA. Of the total worldwide sales of  $28  Million: 
- $22 Million was sold by international agents. Sanetas royalties (revenue) for this was $7.6 million.
- $6 million was sold by Senetas within Australia/NZ.

This makes Senetas revenue from security product $13.6 Million ($7.6M + $6M)
So, in 2005, Sentas revenue was around 48% of world wide sales of $28 Million.  

refer to AGM address dated 27/10/2005. 
I could not copy the ASX link here sorry.

This is cool- my first post. Great forum, discovered it about 1 week ago.


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## crackaton (15 January 2006)

*URL WMT*

Anyone know much about these? I believe WMT have re listed after voluntary administration. From memory they had some decent assets and operations - is this still the case?


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## johnno261 (16 January 2006)

*Re: Senetas (SEN)*



			
				123enen said:
			
		

> From my reading and understanding  of Senetas announcements the $250 Million is actually *world wide sales of security encryptor products*.
> They are hoping to increase world wide sales from $28 Million now to $250 Million in 3 years.
> 
> Total world wide sales of security products in 2005 financial year was $28 Million
> ...




123enen I understand your line of thought regarding the Royalty money, however ther are some variants that must be taken into account, the first is that Mid December a new target price was put on SFNT being $48.00 which is more than 50% above the current trading price of $31.00. The reason for this is aggressive sales program for the near future based on what is worldwide demand for secure transmissions. Now because of this it is very hard to ascertain what value of that will be SONET based Sales and even they themselves could not answer that question!!!
Thanks for your post 123 as these are all question that need to be considered when purchasing a stock.


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## TheAnalyst (25 January 2006)

i have some concerns about this stock


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## Julia (25 January 2006)

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> i have some concerns about this stock




Hello Analyst:

How about expanding on your above particularly cryptic comment?
What are your concerns?

Julia


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## 123enen (25 January 2006)

I think Senetas has thrived on a recent run of news/announcements. Things are quiet now. 

Also I think it is almost fully and fairly priced for the expectations people have of it over the next few months. Think, at best, it will range between 75c and 80c until some good strong news comes forward. If there is no news for a while the short termers will get bored and sell out.


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## TheAnalyst (25 January 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Hello Analyst:
> 
> How about expanding on your above particularly cryptic comment?
> What are your concerns?
> ...




It's not so much maybe the short term its the medium to long term and there are comparable products now in the market...I know of people in the industry and have been doing some low to ground research and will be speaking to an IT engineer on friday as my IT sales manager mate is hooking me up to chat about it and a I know some other sh*t as well


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## 123enen (25 January 2006)

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> its not so much maybe the short term its the medium to long term and there are comparable products now in the market




SEN is about 12 to 15 months ahead of the competition technically.
Sales volume for security product will definitely increase but SEN are preparing themselves mentally for tougher competition and know that in time competitive market costings will force them to reduce the royalties they collect from safenet. 

Still good for a few years and even longer if ther continue to release ground breaking equipment.


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## TheAnalyst (25 January 2006)

123enen said:
			
		

> SEN is about 12 to 15 months ahead of the competition technically.
> Sales volume for security product will definitely increase but SEN are preparing themselves mentally for tougher competition and know that in time competitive market costings will force them to reduce the royalties they collect from safenet.
> 
> Still good for a few years and even longer if ther continue to release ground breaking equipment.




I am sure some very big government organisations including the RBA did not use Senetas and this is what concerns me and it was the names of them that also concerned me and the competition is a USA unlisted company i have just forgot the name of them but i will have it again tommorrow and will definitely post it as i only like to raise stuff which i have checked out as well. Also Ageas analyst report on the Senetas site had a target price of 75 cents in 2004 as a true valuation.


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## TheAnalyst (26 January 2006)

The name of the organisation is Neoscale Inc and the product is Cryptostore and the Australian representative is Dean Frye 0418 546 635 and the RBA used them and not even its own Aussie Senetas....thts concerning....


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## Julia (26 January 2006)

The January 2006 issue of "Smart Investor" included SEN in an article entitled "The Smart Set" - clever companies.

Others described in this article ate Objective Corp, Westfield Group, Iress Market Technology, Cochlear and Billabong.

Amongst the comments in the article are such as :"Senetas's CTAM product range protects critical data in high speed networks for the likes of the US Defence Department, The Australian Federal Police and the Australian Taxation Office" 
.......
"  In addition, Senetas has an IT solutions arm that is implementing the nation's largest business intelligence project for Telstra, involving a prodigious 44 terabytes of data across a multitude of disparate systems.  Senetas Solutions has a 15 year operating history and its other major customers include National Australia Bank, ANZ Bank, Visy Industries and Shell Australia.

So confident is Senetas in the outlook for its growth from the encryption side of its business that it recently declared its objective was to increase product sales from last year's $28 million to an astonishing $250 million within the next three years."


"Smart Investor" is not known for publishing baseless favourable reviews.

Julia


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## TheAnalyst (27 January 2006)

Thx Julia

But the question is; were smart investor aware of Neoscale? and yes fair enough Senetas has confidently forecasted the increase in sales over 3 years not just one year.

Believe me i am not against Senetas and if you remember my earlier post i said medium to long term. Also sales is gross receipts the next step is to deduct cost of goods sold (COGS) which gives Gross profit. Next deduct operating expenses which consist of selling expenses,  administration expenses and then financial expenses which when totaled is total operating expenses and the net profit before tax and before this we have EBITDA, EBIT.

So its ok to say sales will be $250 mill but how much will be net profit after fighting the competitors


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## TheAnalyst (27 January 2006)

They did during the dot.com era



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> The January 2006 issue of "Smart Investor" included SEN in an article entitled "The Smart Set" - clever companies.
> 
> Others described in this article ate Objective Corp, Westfield Group, Iress Market Technology, Cochlear and Billabong.
> 
> ...


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## TheAnalyst (27 January 2006)

" In addition, Senetas has an IT solutions arm that is implementing the nation's largest business intelligence project for Telstra, involving a prodigious 44 terabytes of data across a multitude of disparate systems. Senetas Solutions has a 15 year operating history and its other major customers include National Australia Bank, ANZ Bank, Visy Industries and Shell Australia.

Hi Julia were these customers quoted in the magazine article??


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## Julia (27 January 2006)

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> " In addition, Senetas has an IT solutions arm that is implementing the nation's largest business intelligence project for Telstra, involving a prodigious 44 terabytes of data across a multitude of disparate systems. Senetas Solutions has a 15 year operating history and its other major customers include National Australia Bank, ANZ Bank, Visy Industries and Shell Australia.
> 
> Hi Julia were these customers quoted in the magazine article??




Hello Analyst

Not sure what you mean?

The whole of the first paragraph , i.e. "In addition,........ through to .....Shell Australia"  was quoted directly from the magazine article.

Julia


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## Freddy (6 February 2006)

After their report on drop of earnings for Q4, what is the consensus for this stock now?  It also appears that they are expecting to turnover $250mill at end of three years from the recent press release.


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## Odysseus (7 February 2006)

It is very possible that this is a company which truly CAN deliver exceptional growth. However, as this whole discussion shows, people are more than aware of its potential, and expectations are so high that the stock price will take a real beating if some substantial disappointment occurs, or is felt to occur. It is, in many ways, an "improbable" stock. No good portfolio would include this as a major holding, though it might be worth including in a small way for its very real potential, and the momentum which it has on the whole sustained.


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## Profitseeker (21 February 2006)

Wow. This looks ridiculously sick. Been watching for a week for an entry point but not seen one. There could be some bad news about to hit.


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## Profitseeker (21 February 2006)

Well that announcement fixed it.


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## Profitseeker (23 February 2006)

Nice to see volume building back on this one. Also was interesting to see that the announcement that the company made was in response to rubbish being bantered about on other share forums which was actually quite rampant. I think it reflects positvely on this website that no one here particpated in those rumours on this webiste. Shows how well this forum i actually run. Congratulations.


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## Profitseeker (28 February 2006)

SafeNet plots channel plans
Rob Irwin, ARN

23/02/2006 06:52:09

US-based information security vendor, SafeNet, is planning to increase its channel sales following its acquisition of local security specialist, Eracom, in December. 

The company operates a largely indirect model across Asia-Pacific but had its local figures skewed by the acquisition. With Eracom now accounting for a large percentage of its Australian operations, SafeNet regional sales director, Michael Ho, said indirect sales had dropped to about 40 per cent of its business. 

"We currently have a mixed model in Australia because, to date, organisations such as banks have preferred to buy direct from Eracom," Ho said. "It was an Australian company and they had good relations with it. 

"We would now like to flip that to 60 or even 70 per cent channel by the end of this year. The rest of Asia-Pacific is almost 100 per cent through the channel already." 

Ho didn't envisage banks minding the switch to dealing with resellers in the future once they were made aware of the added value that could be derived from such a relationship. 

SafeNet products are distributed locally by ACA Pacific and LAN Systems. Traditionally, it has also worked closely with Melbourne-based integrator, Senetas. 

Ho said he was currently in discussions with LAN Systems to work out which resellers would be coming onboard to sell its full range of products.


----------



## Profitseeker (2 March 2006)

Half year reports out.


----------



## Profitseeker (3 March 2006)

What do you think about this?



Senetas 1H NPAT drops 84%
2/03/2006 By: Stephen Blaxhall

IT security solutions company, Senetas Corporation Limited (SEN) reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $917,745 for the six months ended 31 December 2005, representing a 84% decrease from the previous corresponding period’s (“pcp”) result of $5.05 million.   



The group noted that the fall in NPAT was associated to one off charges incurred from the extraordinary general meeting held during December 2005 and additional outsourced costs related to the Senetas Shareholders Action Group (“SSAG”), estimate at approximately $550,000. 

The Senetas Chairman and Group CEO, Mr Francis, reiterated that the group still forecast a full year profit before tax in excess of $11Million. 

“These half year results confirmed our previous guidance and reflect a period of delayed sales internationally, due to US Congress and US Senate delays in processing the Federal US budget, which are now coming through.” commented Mr Galbally. 

The company reported that the result was based on revenues of $7.2 million for the six-month period, with the result impacted by the failure of the group to book a multi million dollar sale prior to 31 December 2005, which the company now forecast would be delivered this quarter. 

“If not for these costs and the delayed Government order the Senetas profit would have been closer to $3Million and our operating cashflow would have exceeded $4Million,” 

“Whilst revenues will improve considerably our concentration is in insuring that we retain profit margins,” said Mr Galbally. 

The company declared an unfranked interim dividend of 0.75 cents per share.


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## 123enen (3 March 2006)

SEN has reported $1.75 Million NPAT on $7.2 Million Sales. This includes the $550,000 SSAG value

In order to reach its full year forecast of $11 Million NPAT SEN needs another $38 Million of sales by end of June.
That is nearly $10 Million per month. That is a HUGE ask, but I am sure they have already accumulated some sales since 1 January - soon to announce. 

It boils down to whether you have faith in the compay /CEO. He has re iterated time and again that first half is down BUT lots of work in the pipeline and second half will recover all.

So, assuming  you believe the companty the big announcements should flow thick and fast . 
Add a series of announcements for new security system integrator distribution agreements, and cypher blade switching developments, and we can expect much good news over the next four months. 


It is the distribution and cypher blade developments that should theoretically add the greatest value to the share price because the $11 Million NPAT should already be priced in to the share price.
Personally I think every new announcement will add anyway to the share price as people become aware of SEN for the first time.


----------



## warney (3 March 2006)

Ferret's Stock to Watch: SENETAS CORPORATION LIMITED
08:59, Friday, 3 March 2006

A COMPANY OFFERING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DUE TO ADVERSITY

Sydney - Friday - March 3: (RWE Aust Business News)
***************************************************

OVERVIEW
********

A company that suffers adversity sometimes offers a rare buying
opportunity that does not often occur.
You could put IT security group Senetas Corporation (SEN) into
this category.
The company yesterday reported that net profit had fallen 84 per
cent to $798,636 in the six months to December 31 from $5.05 million in
the previous year.
Revenues fell 40 per cent to $7.22 million from $12.01 million.
Operating profit was down 68 per cent at $1.17 million from $3.71
million.
At first glance it was not a good set of numbers to give
investors confidence in the company.
But the punchline was that a sizable piece of business failed to
materialise in the December half.
The company told the ASX in its interim statement that there was
a delay in a multi-million dollar sale due for the latest period and it
will now be booked in the current quarter.
However, the profit was affected by one off-charges relating 
to the extraordinary general meeting held during December.
On a normalised basis, operating profit would have been around $3
million.
Trading in the third and fourth quarters of 2006 are expected to
be strong with increasing demand for both the company's SONET products
and new Ethernet products.
Senetas reiterated its guidance that operating profit for the
full year would be $11 million.
During the year the company generated other income from the sale
of software and investments amounting to $800,000.
Directors are confident enough to declare an interim dividend of
a steady 0.75c, unfranked, payable on March 31.

SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS
*********************

Shares of Senetas yesterday rose 6.5c to 63.5c. Rolling high for
the year has been 91c and low 20c. Dividend is 0.9c to yield 1.42pc.
Earnings per shares is 2.08c while p/e ratio is 30.53. The company has
462.9 million shares on issue and market cap is $263.8 million. 
Senetas recognised in the last half the issue of the lumpiness of
sales due to the nature of its market.
It decided the only way to address this effectively is through
multiple routes to market.
Senetas has worked with its partner SafeNet on this issue and the
result is an agreed strategy whereby Senetas has become more directly
involved in sales and marketing activities in Asia and the Middle East
which will show immediate financial impact.
Senetas confirmed in its latest release that it has been working
closer with SafeNet over the last two months.
The market opportunities for Senetas are exciting and expanding
rapidly.
The company has continued increasing its R&D investment in order
to sustain its planned revenue growth.
Having launched its new Ethernet encryptor range of products 
in late 2005, Senetas expects significant revenue expansions from this
new range of products over the next few years.
The company has also commenced work on its new CypherBlade
product range and will be advising the market further about this product
range and new developing business opportunities.
CypherBlades are specifically designed to be integrated into 
network switches and routers which is a multi-million market.
The company is working on a joint development with two US-based
companies and will provide a further detailed briefing to the market
towards the end of this quarter.

BACKGROUND
**********

Senetas Corporation Ltd listed on the Australian Stock Exchange
as an IT-related venture capital investor in 1999, known as Secure ID-Net
Ltd.
Based in Melbourne with offices in Sydney, Senetas Group employs
80 people.
The company is debt free and growing strongly, delivering a 
maiden profit of $3.2 million in FY04 on revenues of $16.5 million. 
Following a number of successful investments that included 
CTAM, IBK Enterprise Management Systems and Datum Group, Senetas has 
transitioned into an operating company focused on two main areas of 
business:
* Senetas Security products and solutions, and
* its security enterprise management expertise which includes
hardware encryption devices; systems availability; data storage 
control: physical location; security management (including access and 
identity management); systems connectivity and communications.
Senetas security offering consists of the CTAM CypherNet range of
hardware encryption products that provide highly efficient, fast and
secure data encryption to protect sensitive data while in transit across
private and public networks.
Senetas is also a SafeNet partner, selling and implementing
SafeNet security products and solutions. Customers include the Australian
Federal Police, the Australian Tax Office, a number of agencies of the US
Department of Defence and Fifth Third Bank in the US.
Senetas Enterprise Information Professional Services deliver 
tangible and significant business benefits for its customers. Customers
include Telstra, National Australia Bank, Coles Myer, Harvey Norman, NSW 
Attorney General's Department, Visy Industries, Centro Properties and 
Newmont Mining Company.
Security violations, whether they are deliberate, accidental,
friendly, malicious, for personal or commercial gain, continue to grow
worldwide.
They represent a significant challenge to business and 
government organisations.
The security focus for most organisations is on keeping hackers
out of their network and preventing systems from being compromised by
worms and viruses.
There is usually not the same level of focus on protecting 
data whilst it's in transit over private and public networks.
Senetas CTAM CypherNet hardware encryption overcomes many 
limitations, transmitting encrypted data at up to 10 gigabits per second 
while reducing required bandwidth by up to 40 per cent.
The CTAM CypherNet products are enhanced, integrated and marketed
around the world via a technology partnership with SafeNet.
In Australia, CTAM CypherNet customers include the Australian
Taxation Office and the Australian Federal Police.


----------



## Profitseeker (9 March 2006)

Ok. I am getting fustrated with this stock.


----------



## warney (9 March 2006)

patience is needed profitseeker. we have been through the downside of the "lumpinees of sales"the upside is Q1 and Q2 so dont worry,this company has a great future through there technology.


----------



## Profitseeker (9 March 2006)

I know but so many other opportunities out there... and people obviously have their doubts as other wise the share price would not be what it is. Are their doubt justified? Maybe because all the company has got at the moment are useles anouncements. What do you make of the announcements.  :swear:


----------



## warney (9 March 2006)

those who are in for a quick profit are probly getting bored and selling,but this will leave investers.why sell?just wait and see.the anns lately have been more about channels sen is operating through,to have our tech sold through safenet insures we are at the forefront.buy a nice bottle of red with your dividend check and relax. cheers


----------



## Profitseeker (9 March 2006)

You've sold me on the bottle of red idea mate. I'll watch a while longer.


----------



## Porper (13 March 2006)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> You've sold me on the bottle of red idea mate. I'll watch a while longer.




Time for a chart on my pick for the month, even though I do not hold.

Get the feeling something is going to happen shortly, but not sure which way.I like it because you can trade it with cfd's, and being volatile it is a good day trade.

Seems to be consolidating at present.Also fairly obvious with a good announcement about contracts it will surge, no news I feel it will fall heavily after this period of consolidation.I am looking for a break below 0.55 to short it , or go long with a  descent break up with good volume.One thing for certain, it wont do nothing


----------



## Lachlan6 (16 March 2006)

Well I must admit SEN is giving me a little worry at the moment. Since reaching highs in January this year, it has been hit hard falling by 40%. Today has been a bad day with volume picking up slightly with a 3c fall to 51c. Importantly however in the last couple of weeks, it has fallen through the 30 week EMA which probably means a retest of the uptrend line currently at 44c. If this is breached convincingly (which I dont think will happen), then an exit point will be needed. OBV has fallen a little with the recent fall however the stock may have been a little oversold. Still holding, but nervous times ahead.


----------



## Profitseeker (20 March 2006)

Good announcement. Should move up from here.


----------



## Fab (22 March 2006)

Odysseus,

I just read your last post and it appears that you read very well into this stock. Some disappointment has indeed occurred recently and the stock went strongly down. What are your thoughts about future movement of this stock? I hold 10000 shares and I am not too sure if I should wait or sell.


----------



## 123enen (22 March 2006)

Are we all a little bit happier now?

I expect a lot more from this company over the next two weeks. I think they will finally announce a conclusion to many of the things they have been working on over the last few months.
I have doubled my holdings over the last week.


----------



## sangshim (3 April 2006)

SEN on trading halt...
Does anyone have any idea?


----------



## Profitseeker (3 April 2006)

My guess is a take over. Seems a bit extreme if they are just going to announce a new contract or partnership.


----------



## Porper (3 April 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> SEN on trading halt...
> Does anyone have any idea?




Yes, there must be big news !!

Or not :bad:


----------



## sangshim (3 April 2006)

Doh! big news? 

Would it be a good one or bad one? it makes me nervous...


----------



## Porper (3 April 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> Doh! big news?
> 
> Would it be a good one or bad one? it makes me nervous...




Well there are 3 scenarios Sangshim.

1. It will be good and the price will go up.

2.It will be "who cares" news and the price will do nothing.

3.It will be bad and the price will plummet into the abyss.

Too risky for me, I no longer hold but have traded SEN, not particularly successfully.Good luck to holders.I like to sleep at night though.


----------



## sangshim (3 April 2006)

I guess.. this trading halt is regarding to the appointment of the new CEO... :goodnight


----------



## Porper (4 April 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> I guess.. this trading halt is regarding to the appointment of the new CEO... :goodnight




I would guess that it certainly isn't.Why would they do a trading halt for 2 days for a nothing announcement.(Maybe not 2 days but could be).


----------



## Profitseeker (4 April 2006)

I guess it is about this: 

Crescent Technology Agrees $6M Agreement With Senetas
Edited Press Release 

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Crescent Technology Ventures (CTV) announced Monday that it has entered into a $6,000,000 binding Heads of Terms agreement with Senetas Corporation Limited whereby CTV will acquire from Senetas the whole of the issued share capital of eCryp. 


As part of the Acquisition, Senetas said that it will offer CTV licenses that can utilize Senetas' high-speed network encryption technology in certain of the security technology applications deployed by companies associated with CTV. 

eCryp said that it is developing a proprietary and highly secure remote authentication technology incorporating all forms of biometrics that provides unprecedented security of biometric data through a patented one-time authentication technology. 

The proposed consideration will be satisfied by the issue of New Ordinary Shares in CTV, or at CTV's discretion a mixture of share and cash. 

The company's said that the agreement is conditional upon the satisfactory completion of legal and financial due diligence on eCryp by CTV, CTV shareholder consent and CTV raising sufficient funds to meet any additional working capital requirements. 

The Agreement calls for Mr Francis Galbally, chairman of Senetas, to join the CTV Board of Directors at completion.


----------



## warney (4 April 2006)

did you enjoy your bottle of red profitseeker? nice days ahead for senatas after todays anns.cheers


----------



## sangshim (4 April 2006)

GOOOOOOOOOOOOD!!! not just one but two good announcements for SEN~


----------



## georgee (4 April 2006)

I dont like the way this company grand stands announcements........and note that they have relegated their silly "about senetas" statement to the tail-end of this release. It also deleted the company objectives (that was included at the start of announcements) stating their of them increasing sales from 28mil to 250mil in 3 yrs.....interesting.


----------



## Profitseeker (5 April 2006)

warney said:
			
		

> did you enjoy your bottle of red profitseeker? nice days ahead for senatas after todays anns.cheers




I've got a glass poured but still waiting for the share price to do what it should!


----------



## warney (5 April 2006)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> I've got a glass poured but still waiting for the share price to do what it should!



yeah,seems a bit strange that it isnt climbing? early days yet,im in long term so ups and downs dont worry me,the new contracts are great and sooner or later the sp will rise.remember we have no debt.cheers


----------



## sangshim (5 April 2006)

:swear: Down 4C today after 2.5c up yesterday. Why sp keeps falling even after a couple of good announcement? is SEN overvalued?


----------



## Julia (5 April 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> :swear: Down 4C today after 2.5c up yesterday. Why sp keeps falling even after a couple of good announcement? is SEN overvalued?




imo it's yet another stock which experienced a disproportionately rapid gain in previous months.  Now some degree of realism is returning.  I bought it a couple of weeks before it peaked.  Sold a few weeks ago.  Don't want to hold a falling stock.  Better to buy in again if and when a definite uptrend is established.  I put those funds into more BHP.  No regrets!

Julia


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## Profitseeker (6 April 2006)

I am close to being stopped out. At least systems release the emotion of the desicion :goodnight


----------



## Fab (19 April 2006)

Why does it keep going down after what I thought were good announcements?


----------



## sangshim (19 April 2006)

New CEO Appointment Announcement released.
A Former SAP Executive will get Options at .80, 1.00, 1.20 in 6 months interval. Do They Think the SP will go up to 0.80 + in next 6 month?


----------



## stiger (19 April 2006)

With the activity of the last few week  i.e. directors selling, share buy backs etc . Could there possibly be a smell of  "takeover target" in the air?


----------



## Profitseeker (20 April 2006)

It looks like a dog at the moment. Chart is awful and the share price does not get excited with anything sustainable even when good announcements are made. I'll wait to renter when I see a turn around. Then it should boom but for the moment there are better opportunites else where.


----------



## Fab (24 April 2006)

*SEN- Senatas*

Is there any reasons of the fall of this stock in recent weeks ?


----------



## Fab (24 April 2006)

SOunds like a fair statement from Profittaker. I don't want to sell this stock at a loss therefore I will keep it for the long term. It can not be that bad. My understanding is that share buy back means less share on the market therefore likelihood to go up in the future


----------



## Profitseeker (25 April 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> SOunds like a fair statement from Profittaker. I don't want to sell this stock at a loss therefore I will keep it for the long term. It can not be that bad. My understanding is that share buy back means less share on the market therefore likelihood to go up in the future




Sounds good in theory but it has not worked in the last four months.


----------



## TheAnalyst (27 April 2006)

Has any one got any news on sen at the moment or an idea as to why the share price is continuing its capitulation??


----------



## Profitseeker (27 April 2006)

Analyst,

It is all a bit of strange debacle. The only two reasons that I have pinpointed for a decline ( to be polite) in  the share price are the following:

- A director who I think used to be the CEO ( I think) sold shares.
- The company realeased a statement about "lumpy sales" in the first quarter.

However there have been a series of  positive annoucements that should have more than offset these including:
- A new ceo who bought shares and has options at 60, 80, 1.2
- A statement saying that forecast earnings were on track.

I think the turning point will be when the next results are released. Does anyone know when this is?


----------



## warney (27 April 2006)

it has been a while since the last time i saw 500,000 plus in the buyer depth,maybe they are seeing how cheap it is now?


----------



## Devil_Star (27 April 2006)

Shoot! I was stopped out 40% of my SEN holdings today. I feel very bad to become an investor from a trader for this one. The effects of good announcement didn't hold for even 2 days long early this month. Just dun understand why people dumped its share like crazy.


----------



## sangshim (27 April 2006)

I gave up.. I'll just hold my holding and won't check the SEN SP for a month.. wish 40c range is the floor for it.


----------



## sangshim (28 April 2006)

Earning Forecast Confirmation Released. Jumped 6.5c to 47c with volume over 3 mil.


----------



## pete152 (28 April 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> I gave up.. I'll just hold my holding and won't check the SEN SP for a month.. wish 40c range is the floor for it.




Looks like you may have gotten your wish! Lets hope so any way,
Peter


----------



## Fab (28 April 2006)

Yep looks like SEN is finally boucing back. I have been puzzled as well but the recent slump in this share.


----------



## Profitseeker (28 April 2006)

The positive effect of announcements have not lasted long recently on this stock. Hope I am proved wrong this time.


----------



## pete152 (28 April 2006)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> The positive effect of announcements have not lasted long recently on this stock. Hope I am proved wrong this time.




So do I 
Cheers,
Peter


----------



## 123enen (28 April 2006)

There was nothing in this announcement to give the price lift any longevity.
It was just a confirmation that they would achieve thier forecasts.
No big deal as far as I am concerned.
I suspect thet will start to come back in price next week.


----------



## sangshim (28 April 2006)

sounds like you guys are all passimistic... hmmm but don't you think this ann. is enough to regain investor's confidence to the 55~60c range where it was a couple of months ago?

I think the drop from 80c to 55~60 area can be some kinda price adjustment but 55~60c to 40c has no explanation.

Wish it can go up and stay at 55~60 area until the furthur ann.


----------



## Devil_Star (28 April 2006)

I observed the sp uprising today, but it is just movement with no ground but setiment of good feeling. I won't consider any more contribution unless a real good news comes up. Hope the new CEO can bring some new business to the company soon.


----------



## sangshim (29 April 2006)

Just wondering if SEN's products and technologies have anything to do with the federal government's $1bill smart card plan. I don't know much about the company's product except that it makes some network encrytion stuff.. so just curiuos if SEN's product can play a role in the upcoming project.


----------



## Profitseeker (1 May 2006)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> The positive effect of announcements have not lasted long recently on this stock. Hope I am proved wrong this time.




Seems to have been the case again.


----------



## Devil_Star (2 May 2006)

It looks like throwing money into a swamp, Very few wants to back it up.


----------



## warney (2 May 2006)

Devil_Star said:
			
		

> It looks like throwing money into a swamp, Very few wants to back it up.



the buyers are outnumbering the sellers 3 to 1 atm,good anns. lately and more to come. the future looks up imo.cheers


----------



## jiggy (3 May 2006)

I think this stock is way undervalued and once the contract announcements start to come through this stock will really start to move


----------



## sangshim (3 May 2006)

jiggy said:
			
		

> I think this stock is way undervalued and once the contract announcements start to come through this stock will really start to move



  I really wanna see that... before I decide to sell off everything to stop-loss.


----------



## sangshim (16 May 2006)

SEN has been very quiet in last couple of weeks.. going down slowly.. but 2.5 mil orders backing up at 38.5...
Any news?


----------



## stiger (18 May 2006)

1 word     DOOMED.


----------



## TheAnalyst (18 May 2006)

35 cents 35 cents 35 cents 35 cents and looking worse.....


----------



## sangshim (18 May 2006)

Good Bye Cruel World!!!!


----------



## Mumbank (18 May 2006)

Hang in there, this stock should bounce back before fye.  Market is out of control anyway


----------



## Fab (18 May 2006)

35 cents sounds like a good buying opportunity to me. The problem is you don't want to pick up a stock that has not finished yet its fall. 
I believe tomorrow the stock market should bounce back so.Good day to pick up some bargain.


----------



## TheAnalyst (18 May 2006)

What a wild ride to just below 35 cents...........


----------



## TheAnalyst (18 May 2006)

Actually does any one see the resemlence of the sen chart and this etw chart etc the nice downward slide and just as it looks like it has ended it slides again.


----------



## TheAnalyst (19 May 2006)

well....finally the most positive chart signals for sen have finally arrived as of yesterday:

>firstly it hit 35 cents and just below and where it hit and bounced was the first positive this year as it hit the fibonacci spiral right on target after it did not it did not consolidate at the one before roughly between 45 and 49 cents.  

>The next positive was one of the very highly statistical singe bar patterns as you can see on the chart a very long tail and above average stopping volume and a very narrow open and close daily trading range. 

>The next fundamental positive has finally arrived as well and the brokers who have been appointed to handle and manage the sen share buyback have came in and started buying at the same place..what a lovely coincidence hey??

>The final one at this stage is the per ratio..it is now at its lowest and there is the highly likely scenario of a massive increase in sales revenue forecast over the next couple of years..the only thing to beware of here is it most likely will have a per that matches the risk of a gradual decline in product sales revenue.

Conclusion 

Sen will most likely reach new highs but come down as well and probally the best thing to do is take profits at certian periods and then get out of the stock before it blows you up again.

If it does not hold at the 35 cents support then i am sorry but the stock is in great trouble and there are things going on that are not really being made available at this stage.


----------



## sangshim (20 May 2006)

Does anyone make an investment based on the chart? How useful are they?


----------



## TheAnalyst (20 May 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> Does anyone make an investment based on the chart? How useful are they?




Not on a chart alone


----------



## gordangekko (21 May 2006)

Analyst,

What are you saying is the next fundamental positive that has arrived?

Cheers


----------



## TheAnalyst (21 May 2006)

Yes....at the moment this is the best time to buy that has presented itself....but if it drops lower then it is more than likely other problems abound that the market is not fully aware of yet.

45 to 49 cents was the prior place to buy if it held and showed support but it did not and began to show more weakness and the next spot was 35 cents give or take 10% tolerance to 35 cents....it also happens that the fundamentals look nicer at that price as well as the buy back being more aggressive especially with the brokers paid to manage it......notice that they too waited to this level before buying accumulation began.

It will be good to get another long tail candle with a small range in the open and close price range as well...which of course will help with another strong indication.

Its not the charts but the chart patterns actually say what is psychologically going on with those who make proffessional decisions on the stock.


----------



## gordangekko (21 May 2006)

Thanks. 
It will be interesting to see then how tomorrow and the next few days play out. I beleive that the directors are back on the 24th 25th from o/s. I am expecting some news soon after that. Interesting time ahead. Pitty we have to wait till August to get full results. I am also waiting with baited breath what the new CEO's guidance is for 2007 moving forward. I am also hoping to see news on this 2nd major govt. tender. Sensitivity in this area may be holding back an update. I have been trying to research if this tender has even been awarded yet but I'm having no luck.
Here's hoping then for another long tail candle with a short range open and close price.  
Till Monday then.


----------



## 123enen (21 May 2006)

Analyst,

Have you been banned again from H/C??


----------



## 123enen (21 May 2006)

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> It will be good to get another long tail candle with a small range in the open and close price range as well...which of course will help with another strong indication.
> 
> Its not the charts but the chart patterns actually say what is psychologically going on with those who make proffessional decisions on the stock.




A very positive chart pattern but how much of it's success was due to the buy back. This pattern was not created by a fair and open market, some of it's success is due to the buy back.

I agree anyway that this is the correct price for someone to enter into SEN.
Do not expect a solid increase  until GOOD announcements are made. 
SEN are typically bad at making good announcements -even when the content is good.


----------



## TheAnalyst (21 May 2006)

Yer...i think it is roughly the right price and i just think it will gradually swing up from here but i expect it to get really slammed some where before end of 2008.....as it will lose its growth stock status and it will be expected to have future earnings declines......as for H/C it just aint me but a group of us from uni who use the name and we take it in turns responding.....although it is a bit of fun.

Would not there do it on this forum as this is a very clean cut place to post as others on the sen thread on h/c would get banned within minutes of entering ASF.


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## 123enen (21 May 2006)

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> i expect it to get really slammed some where before end of 2008.....as it will lose its growth stock status and it will be expected to have future earnings declines.




Yes, SEN will need to reinvent itself or continuously develop new and unique products. This company should always fear redundancy.


----------



## TheAnalyst (21 May 2006)

123enen said:
			
		

> Yes, SEN will need to reinvent itself or continuously develop new and unique products. This company should always fear redundancy.




Exactly.....and how do the BOD find another product such as ecrypt again....with the huge spin off that it gave sen.....probabilities are against them.......time is not on their side in this department...love to see a statement from the BOD on this very close future situation and what strategy they are goiing to take to stop it or will they be selling up say to microsoft or another big IT company that will eventually just incude ecrypt/cyberblade as part of a hardware and software bundle at first point of sale.

When is BBB coming on with her specialty being the latest announcement date??


----------



## TheAnalyst (21 May 2006)

123enen

I have missed what is going on with safenet overseas the last few days could you please give a bit of a run down


----------



## 123enen (21 May 2006)

They have got themselves in trouble with the authorities.
Some growing pains mixed with a little incompetence and maybe a liitle bit of pushing the accounting envelope.
They also had to make some ammendments to June 2005 ans Sept 2005 annual reports. Sloppy work.
Doubt that it will have any impact on SEN

SafeNet, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFNT), announced that it received a subpoena from the office of the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York relating to the Company’s granting of stock options. The Company also announced that it has received an informal inquiry from the Securities and Exchange Commission requesting information relating to stock option grants to directors and officers of the Company, as well as information relating to certain accounting policies and practices. The Company is actively engaged in responding to these requests, and will cooperate fully with both offices.


In your post you mention BOD. What is BOD?

IMO SEN will get e-crypt back. They now own 30% of the company that purchased e-crypt from them. I think that was just step one to getting a UK company and maybe ultimate takeover and UK AIM listing for SEN.


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## TheAnalyst (21 May 2006)

Thx 123enen

BOD=Board of Directors..........They seem to be going ape over this on h/c.....how much revenue does sen gain from safenet anyway?? and what would the impact ne on sales say on a worst case scenario??

cheers


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## 123enen (21 May 2006)

SEN total world wide sales of security products in 2005 financial year was $28 Million

Of the total worldwide sales of $28 Million: 
- $22 Million was sold by Safenet. Senetas royalties (revenue) for this was $7.6 million.
- $6 million was sold by Senetas within Australia/NZ.

This makes Senetas revenue from security product $13.6 Million ($7.6M + $6M)

SEN get 30% royalty from Safenet. I bet that this was reduced last year but being commercially sensitve - and likely to worry investors - we have not been officialy told.


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## TheAnalyst (21 May 2006)

123enen said:
			
		

> SEN total world wide sales of security products in 2005 financial year was $28 Million
> 
> Of the total worldwide sales of $28 Million:
> - $22 Million was sold by Safenet. Senetas royalties (revenue) for this was $7.6 million.
> ...




123enen

This is really bad.....honestly  really bad especially of what has been going on over the last few months and sentiment....this equates to more than half of their revenue.....like i said if 35 cents does not hold then there is something else going on that the market is not fully informed to....what do u think???


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## 123enen (21 May 2006)

An enormous amount of dependence on Safenet BUT SEN know it and are actively working to spread the load. They are doing a good job so far.

Biggest problem is a competitor coming up with similar product or development of alternate technology, eg embedded microchips incorporating encryption logarithm - or other forms of embedded hardware.

I will not be surprised if that competition / alternative comes from Safenet itself. 

One thing is for sure - SEN will not tell us if that happens - or is happening.


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## TheAnalyst (21 May 2006)

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> well....finally the most positive chart signals for sen have finally arrived as of yesterday:
> 
> >firstly it hit 35 cents and just below and where it hit and bounced was the first positive this year as it hit the fibonacci spiral right on target after it did not it did not consolidate at the one before roughly between 45 and 49 cents.
> 
> ...




I was not aware of the news regarding Safenet over the week end so the last paragraph is now applicable...good luck cos u will need it


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## Fab (22 May 2006)

What is happening with SEN it is again being massively sold today ? Is there something that is not being disclosed to shareholders about this stock ?? Can anyone explain ?


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## redandgreen (22 May 2006)

"Lemming" behaviour  ....this is exactly why traders lose their heads and their money....rumour and innuendo and following the irrational herd..


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## Fab (22 May 2006)

IF that is the case then It might become a very good buy soon ???


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## redandgreen (22 May 2006)

God knows?    maybe there is some catastrophic bad news lurking... sufficient to justify a 20% fall in the SP for today alone..not to mention the preceding days and weeks....(I wouldn't have a clue)


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## sangshim (22 May 2006)

hitting 0.300~0.305.
 :swear:  :swear:  :swear:  :swear:  :swear:


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## Fab (22 May 2006)

Redandgreen,

This sounds like insider trading to me ?

Cheers


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## Profitseeker (22 May 2006)

Just fear. All this is based on a rumor. Don't they say buy on the rumor? Sell on the news.


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## redandgreen (22 May 2006)

what are your thoughts on the director communique regarding recent SP action?
Comments please.....


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## Fab (22 May 2006)

After this announcement I am now a buyer on the stock. Just placed on order at 0.295 which I believe should be the low point.


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## sangshim (22 May 2006)

redandgreen said:
			
		

> what are your thoughts on the director communique regarding recent SP action?
> Comments please.....



One page long comments from directors but I can't find any value in it.
It might prevent further SP falling but.. I'M DOOOOOOMED ALREADY!!!!!


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## Fab (22 May 2006)

What do you mean by I'M DOOOOOOMED ALREADY!!!!! 
I guess if the director says that sales are on track it is a good sign to me that this is an over reaction from the market.


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## sangshim (22 May 2006)

There has been a couple of announcements confirming sales forecast in last couple of months but the +ve effects lasted for a couple of days only in each time.
SP has dropped more than 30% already... therefore I'M DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED.. don't think it can go back up to 50~60c range in short term... maybe in Aug or Sept... but not in near future...


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## redandgreen (22 May 2006)

bear in mind that Sen is caught up in the rush to the exit door with a lot of small/micro caps atm.
How much of this selling is Sen specific, who can tell?


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## Fab (22 May 2006)

I agree it won't go back to 50-60 cents right now. At least not before July but they are a fair bit of order at 0.30 cents which tells me there might be a long term resistance there. Maybe the bottom of this downtrend cycle . Who knows. My view is if this company has no major issues and has some good sells in the pipe line it sounds like a short term reaction from the market. As I invest mid term to long term I am happy to enter at this level.


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## redandgreen (22 May 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I agree it won't go back to 50-60 cents right now. At least not before July but they are a fair bit of order at 0.30 cents which tells me there might be a long term resistance there. Maybe the bottom of this downtrend cycle . Who knows. My view is if this company has no major issues and has some good sells in the pipe line it sounds like a short term reaction from the market. As I invest mid term to long term I am happy to enter at this level.



Agree.......  Enter not exit!


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## gordangekko (22 May 2006)

Wow what a day. Each and everyone of my watchlist was in the red today in a big way. How much of this was the market? How much of this was the Fear with whats happening to SFNT? I wonder if the announcement had come before open if the sell off would have been as big because the buyers certainly came marching back just after the ann.? How Much of this was Lemming behaviour? Who Knows? 
I sold My parcel I baught recently at 40c just to take some back off the tax man and I baught straight back in. 
So far my Senetas experience is not the best but I spoke to my sources again today, they did not foresee this panic today but see it as a bonus and are still suggesting accumulate, big news coming soon I am being told which is very much to do with what was talked about in the ann. today. Heres hoping.
HC went off today with abuse back and forward it was amusing but not informative in anyway. Must be some seriously burnt people out there.


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## TheAnalyst (22 May 2006)

I found a before and after shot of a lady...i think her name is Betty.....who bought senetas shares and what it has done to her health and appearance.


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## gordangekko (22 May 2006)

Lol Is that Betty Boo?.


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## 123enen (22 May 2006)

Add that to your signature so it appears on H/C


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## gordangekko (22 May 2006)

Interesting perspective posted on SS


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## 123enen (22 May 2006)

Is there any chance you can copy the SS post on here?


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## gordangekko (22 May 2006)

from My earlier posts

"But price and trend are strong anchors many will not buy ( esp the traders ) till it starts going up again... So where IT does start to go up again will indicate the technical strength
And it will be the investors who maybe start buying first and absorb all the eager sellers.
And there are sellers and they are having to reach to find buyers ATM.. "

Buyers turned up today.. absorbed all offerings and wanted more


"watch for a volume surge.. "

And it came ( because the buyers turned up )today's action was equal to many recent days action .. intrinsic time ( market time ) sped up significantly....Today was a selling Climax... with demand being seen to overcome supply +
significant transfer of ownership..

"Look left and notice it is back were the last action sprung from look further left and there is the large horizontal Zone around .32"

good context with the volume here significant..

"But you still want to buy at favourable prices...If the stock is in a red column ..and trending down it is not a time to buy.... " "I would wait for some buy signals "


OK with time speeding up We have to go with the flow.. and not be caught in a clock based rhythm

dropping down to a hand drawn 1 box reversal intraday tic chart ( point and figure )

very clear fulcrum base formed... with the catapult point at .32

Very clear buy signals.. No need to wait anymore.. Indications are that here is bang for buck.. high probabilty ..lower risk..


So took position at .32 today...intraday fulcrum gives upside target to .44 cents
( fulcrum and target negated and fail with a close below .295 )

Nothing certain ...But good close was good confirmation..

See tomorrow...hopefully We get multiple buy signals.. and a profitable campaign..

hopefully charts will confirm in the coming days.. No point posting one atm


I hold SEN

motorway


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## stiger (23 May 2006)

I doubled up on my investment cos it makes good sense at this moment in time.The only way out is up.


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## gordangekko (23 May 2006)

Equity

Another follow up from y'day's post on SS

let's have a look here....

first

"The low pole reversal pattern begins with a long column of Os down, which is considered the low pole. A low pole is defined as a column of Os that drops more than three boxes below the previous column of Os. In the chart below, you will see that the last column of Os falls below the previous column of Os by seven boxes. The Os represent supply and eventually the selling will subside and demand will resurface causing the chart to reverse up in to a column of Xs. If the initial amount of demand in this reversal is substantial, often times it indicates a low is in place for the stock. The initial demand is considered substantial if the column of Xs that follows the low pole retraces the low pole by more than 50%. To determine the 50% level one would add up the number of Os in the low pole column. In the chart below there are twelve Os in the low pole. Therefore, the next column of Xs needs to retrace it by more than 50%, or by at least six Xs. That happened at .34 (intraday). "

Ok in a down trend reversal against the trend should be insignificant as long as the bearish 
consensus is in train....And look at the chart there is not one double top buy signal in the chart since the breakdown from the top..( that is a column of X's has not been able to make a new high against a previous column of X,s ) There are all double bottom sell signals.

However there have been two previous pole reversal signals

the first... early in the trend...( P&F orthodoxy says ignore early signals against the trend wait for confirmation ).. The second was still above support and failed also...

The failure point is a 3 box reversal occurring before a double top buy.. ( a double top buy would be at .375 )

Ok unambiguous and clear signals for confirmation or failure..


This time ?....A point and figure chart... is a chart of activity.. it is imo price and volume woven together...And confirmation builds with each posting..

But We can step back and look at price and Volume on there own as well if it helps us see things in a particular moment..On an bar chart..look at yesterdays volume... look at the price bar and look at the close........ The pole signal , given the participation ( volume and activity ) gains credence... If I poll 2 people
on an issue...the significance is much less than if I poll 20 million.....

A selling climax is where trend changes ( even if it is not confirmed till later )

it is where weak hands who bought at higher prices finally sell out to stronger hands

weak hands are holders under water with high cost base.. ( how long can they hold their breath ? ) who wish they had not bought ( So not the real long term investors )
Strong hands finally acquire those shares maybe at .295...Their cost base puts them in a totally different psychological outlook... they are looking ahead to future profits not looking back with regret...

If you look left on the chart.. SEN is also back to long term support...either it is a bull**** stock .. or it is very very over sold one...

over sold is Not any indicator.. it is where the price causes a surge in Volume to occur.. because the buyers can not hold back.. Without the volume surge it is only a possible oversold situation...

The large volume is reflected in the reversal off the bottom with the formation of the pole .
And with subsequent postings the real story will emerge..

I have bought one position... until the stock ''By it's own action " confirms. I will not add another ..

We should soon see.....

The chart below is a high low chart...it does not display the intraday reversal..This chart will eventually display that if it is confirmed.. hence why it is said H/L charts are 80% accurate with the 20% being corrected in the next day ( or two )...

With such speeding up of time ( look at the activity.. the number of trades the volume )
yesterday might well be equal to 20 previous days... So when looking for the base.. it is in the pole ( hence why poles are significant ) and is only displayed in detail on an intraday chart and why I used it... ( the tick chart has a base of ~ 20 columns )

I feel here We have a logical unambiguous entry point.. the chart as they say is "urging Us to buy " ... But step by step and let the urging build from a whisper to a roar...

The pole was formed when the intraday reversal closed yesterday at .34
The intraday one box tic chart gave the signal at .32

If on the way back to the high there are as many buy signals as there were sell signals on the way down... We will need a lot of money to take them all and the results will be as they say "more than satisfactory"

Atm looks ok a bit of backing and filling is fine...

Nothing certain...Just My views
If it falls below .295 there will be other things to buy
and Sen maybe next time 

On this chart next buy signal at .375
( though it is wise to look at the 1 box chart as well for other signals )



motorway 

Attached Image (Click thumbnail to expand)


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## Julia (23 May 2006)

stiger said:
			
		

> I doubled up on my investment cos it makes good sense at this moment in time.The only way out is up.




Why do you think the only way out is up?

Julia


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## gordangekko (23 May 2006)

My last post I meant for you 123enen I wrote equity as I was reading his post on H/C lol


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## gordangekko (23 May 2006)

Chart now attached this time.. hopefully


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## 123enen (23 May 2006)

Yes, Equity sure is a character on H/C isn't he!
This motorway guy seems to know his technicals doesnt he.

If we are smart we can combine his tech knowledge with the fundamentals as we know them and with the expectations of the upcoming SEN announcements and have a fair bit of confidence now.

But the longer SEN leave it the harder it will become. There will continue to be downward pressure on the price until the market sees a good solid announcement. Until this announcement, the weak hands, as Motorway puts it will continue to be underwater and will eventually sell. 

The weak hands of two months ago probably sold out to the buyers then who may have become the next generation of weak hands now , ready to sell.

You can see how quickly people are willing to sell from the fact that the price dropped to 29.5 cents in one morning on panic of bad safenet news.  
We could probably get that low again if we go for a month with no news -and then more weak hands wil sell.


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## TheAnalyst (24 May 2006)

Good tech analysis gekko......from what i see and have predicted the best entry so far has now appeared for sen......safenet...well.....that put the spanner in the works a little on the weekend...and those who were privy to its actual affects would have accumulated as for the rest of the market they were living in a blind spot.


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## gordangekko (24 May 2006)

Good positive start to the day. That definate buy signal at .375 is close.


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## sangshim (24 May 2006)

need one damn good ann to boost it up!!!!


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## gordangekko (24 May 2006)

I agree although the buying never seems to last long after any announcements by sen that are there just to reassure their shareholders.

This latest one is similar but has a bit more to it and creates anticipation and expectation with whats coming and we are too close to end of FY for them to get the forecast wrong or they would be in deep ****. 
Sentiment is no doubt coming back and the charts finally providing a positive signal. 

Lets hope there is some market surprise well over the 11m and then the word will be out..I do believe there was recent meetings with those that we need to take notice..now why would they try unless they could sell the future of sen,  particularly at a time they are telling us they are in advanced stages of talks with two telcos and a cypherblade deal.  

We do need a damn good announcement. A $$$ one...a big order...a huge sale....I can smell one coming...

Have we got another trading year ahead similar to the last?? and just a matter of picking which 1/2 any lumpiness may effect and getting out before the panic sets in again lol??


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## sangshim (24 May 2006)

Senetas (SEN) 34c
CRITERION
Tim Boreham 
May 24, 2006
NEW Senetas chief John DuBois is baffled about the dearth of market confidence in the purveyor of high-speed encryption devices. "I don't think the market understands us, to be honest," he laments.
But as DuBois knows, the market is all-knowing and never, ever wrong - especially day-traders, who account for about one third of the Senetas register and often punt big volumes on any given day. 

Investors have sent Senetas shares 27 per cent lower since April 28, despite the company affirming its profit expectation on that date. 

Earlier in April, chairman Francis Galbally offloaded 2 million of his Senetas shares at 60c, which didn't exactly go unnoticed. 

In the latest setback, Senetas has been tainted by some bad odours emanating from its US distributor, SafeNet. Regulators are probing SafeNet over options granted to executives, as well as "accounting irregularities". 

SafeNet has been a vital conduit for Senetas to win sensitive military and government contracts, but failed to deliver targeted sales in the first half. 

DuBois says Senetas no longer relies on SafeNet, as it increasingly wins sales through direct channels. Senetas will continue to work with SafeNet, but is having talks with other US-based entities. 

According to one Senetas watcher, chopping and changing US distribution isn't as easy, given the sensitive nature of the contracts. He also questions whether the Senetas product suite is as unique as the company claims it is. 

To be fair, Senetas has been winning a number of contracts elsewhere and expects to sign a distribution deal with two telcos. 

SafeNet expects an $11 million pre-tax profit in the year to June 30. Given that it posted only $917,000 in the first half, it needs a monster second half. 

Galbally says management realised last November that SafeNet wasn't going to be the revenue generator it had assumed. Senetas argued that the loss of contracts was a timing issue only, and that the cash would flow in the second (current) half. 

Senetas was Criterion's glamour stock last year, hitting a peak of 91c in early December. 

DuBois says the "real value" of Senetas stock is around 55c, but Criterion remains cautious. 

We last rated Senetas as a HOLD at 63.5c in early March, and will continue to do so, at least until DuBois holds a strategy briefing within the next three weeks.


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## TheAnalyst (25 May 2006)

Nice post on the point and figure ghekko.....still trying to get my head around the poles though.....would enjoy a bit more explanation...

cheers


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## krisbarry (25 May 2006)

SEN has certainly fallen hard over the past few months, a bit of a concern!


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## ALFguy (25 May 2006)

Yeah but looks like we're hitting that magic (?) .375 figure now  

Are we looking at renewed interest?

edit: make that* .385* now


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## Profitseeker (25 May 2006)

Has to close above .375 though.


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## Fab (25 May 2006)

Why is 0.375 the magic figure ?


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## gordangekko (25 May 2006)

Was a solid day. Held strongly at .38 for a while then finished weaker. Sellers seem to be coming back in especially towards the end of the day. I believe some traders will play with this now for a bit until a good  $ announcement comes out. I will hold through this till then and accumulate if in the low 30's. If buyers are strong enough now and absorb the sellers coming back in then we will be in for a ride again. If the institutions they spoke to take notice then this will happen. Big question is will they?
This could end up similar to the last few ann.'s and just a temporary bounce although this time with what seems to be a definite bottom. I think those that hold medium to long term will be rewarded well. All IMHO of course.


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## gordangekko (25 May 2006)

http://www.wsw.com/webcast/mk12/sfnt/


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## gordangekko (30 May 2006)

Another update for you from ss

OK From a technical perspective... A road map for the way ahead...
So We can tell if SEN is on or off course.........

A selling climax is the final panicky unloading of shares, which are snapped up by more savvy operators... On a bar chart , a selling climax is indicated by a sudden abnormally large surge in volume , sellers frantically unloading their losing positions..The price range drops and widens , at the lows professionals rush in and the selling climaxes with the closing price occurring near the high of the bar.. The volume and price action alone indicate an oversold condition.....

OK clear and unambiguously seen on the SEN chart below ..(marked SC )

A technical rally follows , volume dips and the price jumps higher on a rally.... (marked TR )

The market seems to have turned suddenly bullish... BUT...In actuality It is the ensuing secondary reaction which will show where the market is most likely headed...because it will reveal the conviction and intent of the buyers who bought in the selling climax..

IF the buyers during the selling climax do not intend to hold onto their purchases.. Then those stocks will be thrown back onto the market... Often in the technical rally...

If this new supply is too large for buyers to absorb , the market reacts with prices dropping lower than the extreme low of the selling climax.. and a new decline is most likely going to follow...

How ever if the market reacts to the initial rally with shrinking volume and prices hold above the selling climax low..It indicates that the selling spree has stabilized and with buying power again coming into the market an upturn most likely, is on the way...

(The buyers ARE savvy and will use any lower prices to buy more...)

If the reaction low holds above the climax low.. It indicates the decline has bottomed and final confirmation of the reversal would be prices rising above the technical rally's high..

The technical rally's high point is a critical point of resistance .. it is at .385
The climax low is a critical point of support.. it is at .295

breaching either of these points with rising volume is an especially significant indication..

If the current reaction low holds... then the support is broadening into a zone..

OK ( orthodox Wyckoff ) Purchase points ?

Within the climax itself....that was I judged confirmed at .32

As this secondary reaction low forms and volume and price expand upwards....

And last ( but coming third ) A breakout above the technically rally high which would be at .39

If the reaction low holds and volume dries up.. Then the signs are that the selling pressure has exhausted...and that it will be the buyers that have to start to reach

The stock then is said to be on the springboard or at the hinge..
Or to have arrived at dead centre...



OK where are We ? Right at this moment, on track..

Volume and price are following the script

We saw a large volume climax..The close was at the highs... Then followed a small rally with falling volume ( fewer sellers ? )
Now a small reaction ( yes so far ) and even lower volume (today's action would confirm that trend if the chart was updated )

OK so We see

important points .295...and ...385....in the context of accompanying volume...


Point and figure chart shows the same dynamics...the pole reversal at .34 was confirmed with the intraday price of .385 ( remember it is a High low chart )

The current reversal ( red column ) At the moment is healthy...
A double top buy signal if formed at .39 will confirm a trend change and activate a Vertical count projection of .53

But a step at a time... and ... we need to see confirmation...

Thought I would get this on the forum...ahead of time So has to give the market plenty of 
opportunity to prove me wrong in calling SEN a buy...
In any case people are not going to hold off buying and let this fall below .295 ...if they really want the stock ( and 20+ million shares traded is saying that they do )
Just to thwart Me...

The above dynamics are from the methodology of Richard D. Wyckoff

Circa 1873 ~ 1933

matches with much modern thinking eg..

"when our results here are combined ......... they suggest two basic conclusions about the dominant influences on price formation. First, the balance between liquidity taking and liquidity provision is key. As a result of this imbalance shifting,( shares from the panicky to the savvy ? )
( Then ) for a given transaction size prices can change more or less easily, and the size of the ( subsequent ) changes can vary. ( same volume same transactions but it goes up now )................ Second, the market displays interesting dynamics on long time scales that cause this imbalance to vary in a highly correlated manner. ( There is a pattern ... Accumulation.. leading to Markup..then on to distribution leading to markdown )....

taken from ( brackets My comment ) Gillemot, L., J. D. Farmer, and F. Lillo. -Circa 2005

(Hmmm... A tape reader from the turn of the 20th century in agreement with a 21st century academic ...)

Of course there is No certainty...And SEN has been in a confirmed downtrend.. That makes it a little different to something like AMP in a confirmed uptrend and which has displayed the same dynamics in a mini cycle....

So We have the hurdles ...let's see if SEN is up to the task...


""any lower than this and it confirms the downtrend. ""

At this stage I would say not So... and at .295 We would have to examine the context.
The action ATM is in that Selling Climax... The whole tone of the technical position hinges there...until that is negated the downtrend is not confirmed..

We can be 100% ceretain only after the event...


motorway


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## gordangekko (31 May 2006)

http://www.brr.com.au/event/SEN/1542/11362


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## ALFguy (2 June 2006)

gordangekko said:
			
		

> http://www.brr.com.au/event/SEN/1542/11362




Did they cancel this broadcast? Doesn't seem to be accessable now.


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## gordangekko (2 June 2006)

Senetas suggested it was prematurely announced by boardroom radio and are not sure when it is going to be rescheduled for. Another blemish from senetas in their investor relations imo.


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## sangshim (8 June 2006)

gone back down to 0.315...


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## gordangekko (9 June 2006)

Time to accumulate then imho.


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## sangshim (9 June 2006)

what's imho?


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## Porper (10 June 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> what's imho?




IMHO means in my humble opinion.

I wouldn't be too quick to jump in with SEN.I've traded it a few times but due to the past volatility it is too easy to get stopped out.

My theory is when the trend does change there will be plenty upside available, so trying to pick the bottom is futile imho.


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## Fab (19 June 2006)

I bought 14000 at 0.30 last week actually by mistake as I  did not realize that I had an order left hanging. Luckily it looks like 0.30 might be the bottom as it is bouncing back strongly today in good volume +11%.
I guess SEN has fallen enough in recent month and this must be a buying opportunity. Any comments on this are welcome .


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## sangshim (19 June 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I bought 14000 at 0.30 last week actually by mistake as I  did not realize that I had an order left hanging. Luckily it looks like 0.30 might be the bottom as it is bouncing back strongly today in good volume +11%.
> I guess SEN has fallen enough in recent month and this must be a buying opportunity. Any comments on this are welcome .




0.30 looks like a good price to buy.. and I'm happy with SEN gaining over 15% in last one week... but... I think sp will go down to 0.285~0.315 again unless there's announcement on the sales from the alternative channels they have been building.


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## Warren (23 June 2006)

I have been following this stock for a while, and really like it.  I have done a small summary piece on it if anyone is interested.  The key to this stock is achieveing distribution success, and I am confident it will.  Food for thought on this stock below. Note these are only my opinions.

SEN

Background

•	Leading global supplier of high speed hardware encryption technology.
•	Products have the highest international levels of accreditation – US EAL and US FIPS standard.
•	High speed military grade encryption provided over copper wire and fibre optic networks
•	Clients include: US Govt, US Military, Australian Govt, Australian Military, Saudi Military, large financial institutions, commercial and govt clients in Middle East.
•	Key products: 1Gbs Ethernet encryptors, Cypherblade, SONET encryptors

Competitive Advantages

•	Key competitive advantage is accreditation at US EAL and US FIPS standards.  As it takes approximately two years for competitors to achieve similar levels of accreditation, SEN has at least two years to maintain its dominant market position once a competitor announces its intention to obtain accreditation.  To date, SEN are not aware of any competitors that have applied to begin the accreditation process.
•	Established relationships with partners in key markets – Safenet in US and now Cybernet ($US 1bn revenue p.a.).  Potential for distribution agreement with IBM still in negotiation stage.
•	Established credibility in U.S and are leveraging that in negotiations throughout Australia, New Zealand, Middle East, Asia.
•	Commitment to R&D has ensured regular release of new products or upgrades to existing products: ATM to SONET to ETHERNET within 18 months.  Puts competition a long way behind given the two year proving period.

Strengths

•	Strong cash flow
•	Debt free
•	Significant operating leverage – only 16 full-time programmers/engineers.  Negligible capex required per additional client/contract.
•	Customer stickiness – significant investment in deploying SEN “boxes” throughout client network.  The technology is proven, and given mission critical nature of data protected makes it difficult and unlikely that client would put the contract out to tender unless there was a major failure by SEN.
•	Daily share buy-back/capital management
•	Payment of all profits as dividends.

Weaknesses

•	Sales “lumpiness” – SEN to take more direct control of sales and marketing of product in Asia and Middle East. 
•	To get access to US markets and gain credibility during SEN’s early corporate life, particularly US military, SEN needed to form a strategic partnership with Safenet.  Safenet was given exclusive distribution rights for SEN products in the US and Asia/Middle East.  Safenet have not proved to be particularly effective in expanding the sales base beyond the US military.  As having exclusivity over SEN products is clearly very valuable to Safenet, they are unlikely to be willing to renegotiate the deal (ie exclusivity) without something in return – most likely a lower royalty payment to SEN.  However, sales made through other avenues generate almost double the revenue relative to sales through safenet.

Opportunities

•	A recent discussion with the investor relations manager indicated an emerging opportunity exists in mobile phone encryption.  No detail on potential market size etc, but given mobile phone penetration as well as rapidly progressing technology, the potential is obvious.
•	Distribution – this is a key to the success of the company.  New deals with Cybertrust, possibly IBM and reduced reliance on Safenet for sales in US a step in the right direction.  In addition, recent agreement with Crescent Technologies that provides a $3 million upfront payment plus ongoing royalties of 15% of all sales that incorporate SEN technology.  They have the product, they just have to get it out to the market. Revenue from non-Safenet sales is roughly double – obvious opportunities to expand revenue base if  effective distribution network is built.
•	Recent agreement with Crescent technologies not only provides additional royalty payments but has also opened up new high level security and defence contracts. 

Risks

•	After speaking with contacts at the company, it was indicated that while the company should achieve its stated earnings this year, the quality of the result may be a little weaker than usual.  He explained that given the poor performance of Safenet, sales that were expected to materialise have been lost.  The shortfall (approximately $2 million) is expected to be made up predominantly of asset sales rather than additional product sales.  Hence, some weakness following the coming result could be possible.
•	Key risk is that distribution network does not develop as hoped.  Reliance on one partner has so far proved ineffective.  Effective distribution network is critical.  At the moment they are rapidly developing this.  They have stated on numerous occasions that achieving “multiple routes to market” is now a priority.
•	The revenue model currently does not have a significant annuity component, so steady revenue is reliant on continued and regular sales.  Risk is very lumpy sales (currently being experienced).
•	Technology obsolescence. Competitive advantages in relation to accreditation generally ensure that this is less of an issue than for other companies, but when a competitor does emerge, this should be monitored closely.

Selected Financials

•	PE: 23 x ’06, 17 x 08 vs sector average of approximately 18-19 times ’06.
•	ROE: 25% in FY06 growing to 50% in FY08 and 60% in FY11.  Makes sense given high operating leverage, strong forecast profit growth and daily share buy-back program.
•	ROA: approximately 30-40% for FY06 – FY11 (forecast horizon).
•	NPAT margin: generally around 30%
•	Dividend yield: approximately 5% on FY07 numbers.
•	Valuation (DCF): $0.58
•	Market Cap: $187m



Conclusion

•	Very strong competitive position
•	Very positive financial characteristics: no debt, strong cash flow, dividend paying, high operating leverage, daily capital management.
•	Significant “flagship” clients – eg Pentagon
•	Key risk is distribution failure.  Significant inroads being made into achieving more diverse “routes to market” to mitigate this risk – new partnerships with Cybernet, Crescent Technologies, potentially IBM, Safenet.
•	2 year accreditation period provides protection against technical obsolescence
•	Possibly some weakness going into full year ’06 result given potential earnings quality issues, but longer term (6-12 months) there is significant upside.  Price target of $0.60 not unreasonable.


----------



## 123enen (23 June 2006)

You have written an excellent summary of Senetas. 
I feel that you are a little too generous on your assesment of SEN's leadership position. I suspect there are several competitors closing in on SEN's first mover advantage.

Thales, AT Media and perhaps even Safenet themselves will be working on development of high speed Ethernet encryptors, and don't wait for SEN to tell you so. All of a sudden a competitive product will be available and the advantage will be gone.

Recently the US NSC agency requested that Safenet develop a classified Type 1 version 10Gbs SONET encryptor. Safenet will use its subsidiary company, Mykotronx to develop the item.
The encryptor product range is a little difficult to comprehend but why wasn't SEN involved? Does the SEN SONET encryptor lack CCEP approval, or are NSA so paranoid that they will not have a non USA company develop their security product?


IN FY 2005 total worldwide sales of SEN security product was $28M, Safenet was responsible for $22M, nearly 80%,for which Senetas received royalties of $7.6M. 
I am not sure that sales made through other avenues generate almost double the revenue relative to sales through safenet but I do agree that SEN must reduce their dependance on Safenet and develop their distribution channels.

You mentioned possible weakness in the 2006 FY results. When did you speak with the company to discuss the FY results? They actually admitted this weakness to you?
If it was some time ago I wonder if the sales have improved since?
I also presume the assett sales they refer to is the sale of the eCrypt business to CTV.


----------



## Warren (23 June 2006)

They didn't admit the weakness directly.  I gathered that as NPAT forecasts were unchanged from a recent meeting, asset sales were likely making up for a shortfall in product sales.  It will be a cold day in hell when management actually admit low quality earnings.

I gave gathered that new distribution agreements are not likely to be as lucrative for the distributors as that which was signed with Safenet.  Given SEN needed Safenet to gain credibility and access to high level clients in the US, this is understandable.  

The advantage in the leadership position mostly pertains to government and military clients that require the EAL and FIPS accreditation.  Granted, defense of its competitive position in markets that don't require such accreditation is essential and is always under threat.


----------



## sangshim (23 June 2006)

BTW, Don't you guys think recent sp movement is rather promising?

In last 6 months, sp never been rising for more than 2~3 days. But in last 10 days, sp has been going up up up up~ from 30c to 39c..

I wish this means the change of the trend...


----------



## Warren (23 June 2006)

There has been no news that warranted the initial fall to $0.30.  I am assuming that when the market started its tumble, people panicked and sold out of positions perceived to be risky - eg tech stocks.  Price movements on no news mean nothing, other than that the stock may have been oversold relative to its intrinsic value.


----------



## 123enen (23 June 2006)

Warren said:
			
		

> They didn't admit the weakness directly.  I gathered that as NPAT forecasts were unchanged from a recent meeting, asset sales were likely making up for a shortfall in product sales.  It will be a cold day in hell when management actually admit low quality earnings.




Yes, quite right. They are not the most informative of companies.

Have you actually seen the SEN forecast 2006 NPAT figures printed anywhere? How do you know they are unchanged from 2005?
I have not seen them and I have questioned SEN directly on 2006 NPAT and EPS but they will not reply.

I imagine that one of the NPAT challenges they will have in 2006 is that the tax break benefit of $2.6M they received in 2005 will not be duplicated in 2006. They wil not get a tax break this year and will in fact pay tax this year.
Additionally their 2006 EPS will be challenged due to the increase in weighted shares outstanding.


Sangshim,
The recent price increase is partly a reflection of an oversold position, although there was no justification for the price to get as high as it did earlier this year.
The price increase is also going to be bosted by another round of takeover rumours, once again.


----------



## Warren (23 June 2006)

I am going on their 28 April 2006 statement to the ASX citing confirmation of NPBT of $11 million.


----------



## 123enen (23 June 2006)

Warren said:
			
		

> I am going on their 28 April 2006 statement to the ASX citing confirmation of NPBT of $11 million.




That's not NPAT - that's NPBT = before tax, not after tax.

2005 NPBT was $7.3M. 2006 NPBT forecast at $11M


----------



## Fab (23 June 2006)

Good day + 10% today and going


----------



## sangshim (23 June 2006)

I'm lost here... What's going on?
There was an ann yesterday and the sp dropped from 2.5c gain to 0.5c gain.
And today.. all of sudden sp rises 15%.
What's going on?


----------



## Warren (23 June 2006)

I am aware that NPBT is before tax.  This is the metric that SEN provide guidance on.  My point was not that this figure was unchanged from the previous year but that it was unchanged following lost sales in 1H06. As NPBT is post abnormals I assumed that the sale of cybertrust (?) must make up the difference.


----------



## 123enen (23 June 2006)

Warren said:
			
		

> As NPBT is post abnormals I assumed that the sale of cybertrust (?) must make up the difference.




Yes there will be a larger that normal contribution from that sale and other licence fees.


----------



## sangshim (25 June 2006)

---------------------------------------------
ASX:SEN   Hope to see upside
Post #35562 by: ausgeo   Reads: 49   Position: Unknown   Report Abuse 23-06-2006 15:33
IP 139.168.xxx.xxx  

Market happy with anns.
Hope to see uptrend.
Fund are interested to jump in.If takeover news is to be true, sp will usually go up.

Not bad for short to mid term.IMO 

-----------------------------------

Found this interesting post in topstock.
Is there takeover rumour going on?


----------



## sangshim (26 June 2006)

up 10%+ again today...
I don't think the last announcement is good enough to push sp more than 20%. There must be something else going on...


----------



## Warren (26 June 2006)

More buyers than sellers


----------



## Fab (26 June 2006)

Yep. GOing up again after a long long downtrend. I am starting to feel happy that I top up at 0.30. The problem is I also top up ENG at 0.30 at the same time and ENG is following the same downtrend that SEN


----------



## sangshim (26 June 2006)

It surely was an exciting day.
went upto 0.490 and ended at 0.465 (3.5c up) with over 14m trading volume.
Should I take some of the profits now? or waits?


----------



## stiger (26 June 2006)

Patience will be rewarded.


----------



## 123enen (26 June 2006)

I would not sell my shares yet


----------



## sangshim (26 June 2006)

: me neither.. but since I've been accumulating my shares since it was 55c... I feel a bit nervous.. (Even though I've recovered all the loss)


----------



## sangshim (27 June 2006)

Down 4c (9%) today...  
Should have taken some profit yesterday and bought it back today or later..


----------



## Fab (27 June 2006)

Yep. Unfortunately what goes up goes down almost as fast with SEN


----------



## stiger (29 June 2006)

Parting is such sweet sorrow See what tuesday brings.


----------



## sangshim (30 June 2006)

+ve ann released today... but seems like the market's not responding just yet. 
Would it take a day or two for the traders to move in as it did with the ann released last week?


----------



## Mumbank (31 July 2006)

Up 11% this morning - no announcement - any hints????


----------



## warney (31 July 2006)

Mumbank said:
			
		

> Up 11% this morning - no announcement - any hints????



im hopeing its a great profit statement above 11m, also they were negotiating with 2 telcos as well? it has been quiet of late.......


----------



## Fab (31 July 2006)

Yep. I have noticed that . Very good volume. It is about time that the SEN trend changes


----------



## Fab (31 July 2006)

WOW. Up almost 20% in big volume today. It looks to me there might be some insider trading going on. I won't complain about this sudden rise as I just topped up SEN at 0.30


----------



## Fab (1 August 2006)

Big volume again but going downtrend today


----------



## Fab (7 August 2006)

Another good day for SEN with big volume. Results are due in September my belief is that SEN might jump again specially after the result.


----------



## warney (7 August 2006)

they were buying decent chunks today,it was a pleasure to watch. a lot of good vibes around atm


----------



## borg (14 August 2006)

Is it time to jump in on senetas?


----------



## Fab (1 September 2006)

Borg,

I believe you are right buy now before the result announcement. Trade is good today, moving up nicely on good volume


----------



## Fab (1 September 2006)

Closed at its highest today in the last few weeks in good volume. Looks very good and a strong result might be around the corner. Looks to me like quite a cheap stock at this level.
Who else is following SEN ???


----------



## betrade (1 September 2006)

Yep,

Have a few through my SMSF, feeling a lot better than a month or so ago.  Heard whispers of very good results.  Will know for sure on the 8th when they report.  Not too worried if they miss their figures, as heard another whisper of bigger things to come

B

PS DYOR the whispers I am hearing could be totally wrong.


----------



## Fab (1 September 2006)

Betrade,

Where are the whispers from ?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (4 September 2006)

Healthy pullback today. Momentum looking good for another run this week.


----------



## Fab (4 September 2006)

Yes. I like that too but no real strong direction will happen before the results are announced then we might have a free fall or a big jump.


----------



## betrade (4 September 2006)

Hi there,

Heres hoping for the rise!!!  Will see then, how good the rumour mill really is!!  and that is all it is at this stage, so dont invest hard earned money on whispers!

B


----------



## Mumbank (11 September 2006)

Any ideas of why the financials weren't released on Friday as stated on 1.8.06? Noticed a littlepullback today but that may just be the state of the market???


----------



## warney (11 September 2006)

Mumbank said:
			
		

> Any ideas of why the financials weren't released on Friday as stated on 1.8.06? Noticed a littlepullback today but that may just be the state of the market???



wednesday they are out


----------



## betrade (12 September 2006)

Hi there,

Announcement of yesterday was more important than most punters realise.  Multiple ways to market.  No more reliance on Safenet, it would seem that Safenet need Senetas more than the other way round now.

Could be interesting day tomorrow.

Regards

B


----------



## Mumbank (13 September 2006)

I can't believe it - all morning I've been watching for the financial report.  I go to lunch - they release the report, which doesn't seem that bad except for the no dividend part - and the shares take a 18% drop while I'm eating !!!!!!!!!!

AAAHHH


----------



## pete152 (13 September 2006)

I think, after a brief reading of the report,that the no dividend is the main reason for the drop.
Cheers,
Peter


----------



## Fab (13 September 2006)

Why is it going down so hard ???? The results do not appear to be that bad .


----------



## betrade (13 September 2006)

Hi there,

Yes somewhat puzzling.  They did say +\- 15% which they are.  No Divs, sure that doesnt help.  We knew the sale was in the figures, remembering how far behind we were first half with the Lumpy sales.  

Doesnt hurt me, this was play money, and always throught that this was a 3-4 year investment.  Still holding, and will do so for a couple more years yet.  I just guess the traders want their money yesterday, and are selling heavy today.  Maybe still an announcement or two to go yet??

Good luck to all holders

B


----------



## betrade (13 September 2006)

Hi again,

Posted on another site, which sort of explains the big sell off.  Numbers do not look good to me, though I dont have time myself to work them out myself

"Their NTA backing is down 11%.
Gross profit is down 10%.
Other income saw them earn $3.6 million from the sale of shares - hardy a core business activity or generic growth for an IT business.
Other expenses were up 27%.
Net profit for the period was down 5%.
Net profit attributable to members of parent was down 6.4%.
Cash & cash equivalents are down 59%.
Total current assets are down almost $12 million.
Basic EPS down.
Sale of goods was down 47%
Provision of services was down 20%
Other overhead expenses were up 34%
Net cash from operating activities down 24%"



B


----------



## Fab (13 September 2006)

End of the year is normally their best period. I am willing to keep put as I believe in this company and it shares price might become very attractive for top up


----------



## Fab (14 September 2006)

20% down yesterday and 10 % up today looks like the result issued yesterday might have not been that bad. I am holding on to this one as being in IT they appear to be a good company


----------



## Fab (15 September 2006)

Back up again. Maybe the correction of the misleading report announcement is helping this change


----------



## ALFguy (15 September 2006)

This was rather interesting at the end of the announcement:

*Senetas advised the market in its preliminary profit report that it is progressing a corporate
alliance and strategic investment the nature of which is commercially sensitive, but which will
have a significant impact on the value of the company and which will be announced to the
market as soon as practicable.*

Question is, do they mean significant positive impact?


----------



## warney (15 September 2006)

they wouldnt spend our divvy money on a corporate allience that would be detrimental to the company,it cant be anything but positive.....right?


----------



## Fab (18 September 2006)

Something must be happening on this stock as the volume is quite high. Already over 3 000 000.


----------



## Fab (20 September 2006)

Up in big volume today. Announcement must be due soon.


----------



## Fab (28 September 2006)

Anybody knows when results announcement are due?


----------



## Fab (24 October 2006)

In Trading Halt. From previous rumours it should be an annoucement of partnership


----------



## Fab (24 October 2006)

Any idea why this one is in Trading Halt


----------



## betrade (24 October 2006)

hi there,

46 Million placement @ 55 cents to IKL something or the other.  Big one is still ahead

B


----------



## Fab (24 October 2006)

Is that good news ???


----------



## Fab (25 October 2006)

Not sure why they went in trading halt yesterday to announce their annual report that I received in the post a couple of days ago.


----------



## Mumbank (25 October 2006)

Perhaps that's not the only announcement - they are still in trading halt.


----------



## betrade (25 October 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Is that good news ???



  Price at close was around 46 cents.  Someone has confidence in the stock.

Regards

B


----------



## Fab (26 October 2006)

suspension of official quotation now. Not sure if that is good or bad


----------



## redandgreen (26 October 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> suspension of official quotation now. Not sure if that is good or bad



What are the implications of a suspension versus a trading halt?. 
feeling a bit nervous..... got a shock when I l  ooked at my position statement this morning.


----------



## Go Figure (26 October 2006)

I am led to believe that Senetas, is waiting on funds for placement of app. 46 million shares @ .55c per share with IKL Management (not sure who they are nothing on the web) per annual report to land into their bank account could be today or the next few days afterwhich trading should resume.


----------



## Fab (26 October 2006)

Yep I am a bit worry now.


----------



## Ken (27 October 2006)

i think if your holding your on a good thing.

the potential for this company is enormous. 

maybe some one has seen it, and decided to get on.

i was reading in a share magazine that they looking 250 million in revenue within the next few years....

they are also doing the nations largest intelligence project for telstra.


----------



## Fab (30 October 2006)

Sounds good let's see if that can translate into a much higher share price when it re-opens. The big question is when will they trade again


----------



## lbaz9 (30 October 2006)

What I am confused with, that announced in their annual report about the share placement, but they haven't specifically told the market (through a specific announcement) about the placement.  I would have thought this is pretty major news, to announce it in a minor line item in the annual report isn't very professional.  

Now lets see them re-open.


----------



## Fab (30 October 2006)

A placement does not really require a share suspension to my knowledge. I think it is more important than that.


----------



## constable (30 October 2006)

I have to agree with fab I think that there must be something more serious ie, a proposal put to the company  that is obviously going to affect the company's value by more than 10%- 15% thus the suspension until they are in a concrete position to release it. They cant let the stock trade without eveyone knowing what they know! And yes im one of the punters caught holding the great unknown and talking to their investment answering machine!


----------



## Go Figure (30 October 2006)

I think we could here more tommorrow the Managing directors 1,250,000 share options exercisable @.80c expire 1/11/06. However in saying this the board have indicated that talks and the transaction being undertaken are extremely sensitive, what this means well most shareholders do not have a clue....All holders will have to sit and wait patiently....


----------



## 123enen (30 October 2006)

GO FIGURE said:
			
		

> I think we could here more tommorrow the Managing directors 1,250,000 share options exercisable @.80c expire 1/11/06. However in saying this the board have indicated that talks and the transaction being undertaken are extremely sensitive, what this means well most shareholders do not have a clue....All holders will have to sit and wait patiently....




No, this is often misunderstood.
The options vest on 31/10/06...... they expire June 2011.


----------



## Fab (30 October 2006)

123enen said:
			
		

> No, this is often misunderstood.
> The options vest on 31/10/06...... they expire June 2011.




I suppose at least this must mean that the company won't announce that they are broke


----------



## Fab (31 October 2006)

Is there a maximum time that a stock can go into Suspension for??


----------



## Fab (31 October 2006)

I understand before annoucing the suspension of their share trade they have annouced their annual meeting on the 23/11. This tells me that they are unlikely to go bust and that they will at least have to be re-open for trading before the 23/11.


----------



## Fab (2 November 2006)

Does anyone know what is going on here ???


----------



## constable (2 November 2006)

they are finalising a large transaction it is taking longer than expected was ment to be complete by now but will take at least another week maybe 2 (wouldnt commit for obvious reasons) transaction does have a large affect on co's value couldn't get much more out of them. you holding fab?


----------



## Fab (2 November 2006)

Constable,

Thanks for that ? How did you find that out ? Did you call them ? I tried to call their investor information line on 1300 787 795 but could not get through.  What you are saying is very interesting as I believe this is likely to push this stock higher. 
I have bought into SEN last year and own few thousands of those to answer your question.
Do you own any ?


----------



## constable (2 November 2006)

yeah its been the same for me, "shannon" keeps puttting you thru to an answering machine but this time i demanded to speak to a real person and the bloke i got was fairly helpful. Sitting on 120000 @ .48 myself and looking forward to some action.(i called there melb office!)


----------



## SevenFX (2 November 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> Sitting on 120000 @ .48 myself and looking forward to some action




I don't blame you at that quanity & price.....

I be gettin kinda nervous...but I'm sure it will soar.


----------



## Fab (2 November 2006)

Yep sounds like exactly like me I am sitting on around 25000 (can't remember the exact number) @.48  too. This annoucement will either tip me into profit or loss


----------



## constable (2 November 2006)

gee whiz were you still sitting on them after they hit 80 cents through dec jan! you must be paying a lot tax already?


----------



## Fab (2 November 2006)

What do you mean ? With 120 000 you have almost 6 times more than me.
I bought some at the peak around 80 something and then bought some at the bottom at 0.30 so my average is 0.48.
I am happy to sit on it, I am in the IT industry and SEN sounds like a good company, also few months ago when their share price went up they mentioned that this could have been caused because of rumours about a deal therefore what you mentioned in your last post is not surprising and should very welcomed by the market when it re-opens. It is now a question of how welcome this is.


----------



## Fab (6 November 2006)

I just talked to their investor line and they mentioned that they are in trading suspension because they are waiting for a contract to signed for the value of $25 000 000 at 0.55 cents per share. Until the money is in the bank and everything is done signed and deliver I believe the share will be in suspension. Looks to me that they will be some upside when it re-open but probably not as much as I would have like as 0.55 might be the limit . Sounds all positive to me anyway


----------



## constable (8 November 2006)

sen ann


----------



## Fab (8 November 2006)

Coming soon but before they need to trade again. Hopefully all the waiting game will have been worthwhile


----------



## Fab (13 November 2006)

This one should come out of trading suspension today or tomorrow. This should be very interesting


----------



## 24797 (13 November 2006)

Has anyone else heard the trading suspension was a result of a deal that would see Senetas's U.S partner, Safenet taking over Senetas and offering one of their shares for every 20 of ours as well as 30 cents per Senetas share?


----------



## constable (13 November 2006)

24797 said:
			
		

> Has anyone else heard the trading suspension was a result of a deal that would see Senetas's U.S partner, Safenet taking over Senetas and offering one of their shares for every 20 of ours as well as 30 cents per Senetas share?



what's "1 of their shares" worth ?


----------



## constable (13 November 2006)

24797 said:
			
		

> Has anyone else heard the trading suspension was a result of a deal that would see Senetas's U.S partner, Safenet taking over Senetas and offering one of their shares for every 20 of ours as well as 30 cents per Senetas share?



Sounds like fiddle faddle to me. safenet shares are worth $22.81 which would mean , with what your rumour is saying they are offering 3x the last close price!  Is there an ounce of credibility to your rumour?


----------



## Fab (14 November 2006)

Does not sound right to me. Where did you get this infomation from ?
We should know tomorrow at the latest anyway. A form 484 has just been released my understanding of this form is someone got allocated or bought over 296000 SEN shares.


----------



## bigdog (14 November 2006)

Fab you picked it right

SEN ANN just issued for form 484 "Change to company details"

Issue of 296687 shares at .455


----------



## slimdusty96 (14 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> We should know tomorrow at the latest anyway.




I would hope so, though it's only an anticipated date, which mean we might have to wait further....  :whip


----------



## bigdog (14 November 2006)

I have been researching Investorvillage forum links for Safenet in the US
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=3716&clear=1&pt=m


Safenet has a few problems in the US:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
where investigation of the the Company's stock option granting practices conducted

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060928/safenet_restatement.html?.v=1
Safenet Sees Restatement Charges of $20M
Thursday September 28, 11:27 am ET  
Safenet Expects Charges of Under $20M for Option-Related Restatement for 2000 to 2005 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Safenet Inc., a provider of security software, said Thursday in a regulatory filing that the total non-cash charges it expects to include in upcoming financial restatements should be less than $20 million for the period 2000 to 2005.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Investorvillage forum links to read if interested by "arbpro"
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=3716&clear=1&pt=m&SearchBy=AuthorID&SearchFor=24287

------------------------------------------------------------------
There are also problems when strategic partner Senetas reports a royalty shortfall from its licensee, SFNT, there is actually objective to suggest that SFNT will disappoint again. With this group, anything is possible. 

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=3716&mn=36&pt=msg&mid=447040
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Suggested mis-calulations o royalities

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=3716&mn=39&pt=msg&mid=449998

Very interesting. Thanks for the information. Remember about a year ago when IBM/SFNT were rumored joined at the hip? Nothing came of those rumors that I know. Now SEN. I wouldn't be surprised at anything SFNT management does or doesn't do, but intentionally miscalculating royalties to drive the price of SEN down for a buyout would be asking for jail time. I know 2 things about Caputo; one, he wants as much money in his pocket as possible, but two, he knows he can't spend it in jail. So I would say the possibility of royalty understatement to manipulate the market value of SEN is highly unlikely. Obviously the volume in SEN today, with the stock moving only slightly, says nobody really knows what is going on with SEN


----------



## Fab (15 November 2006)

I am expecting SEN to start trading again today


----------



## Fab (15 November 2006)

Still not trading ?!!!!


----------



## slimdusty96 (15 November 2006)

Doesn't surprise me; I generally take the phrase "It is anticipated that...." fairly lightly; more waiting for now.... :sleeping: , but I would say it's worth it.


----------



## Flathead Flick (15 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Still not trading ?!!!!




I've just joined this forum and read through all the SEN posts. Unfortunately, I know how you guys feel - I went through this myself in 2000/01.   SEN is dodgy at best.  

Look into the history of the company and the directors. They have done this before to investors and will do it again. You are being taken for a ride with their rumours and 'announcements' so they can make some cash. I will say no more.   

FF


----------



## SevenFX (15 November 2006)

Flathead Flick said:
			
		

> SEN is dodgy at best.
> 
> Look into the history of the company and the directors. They have done this before to investors and will do it again. You are being taken for a ride with their rumours and 'announcements' so they can make some cash.
> 
> ...




That's funnnnnny, you won't need to say anymore, as I'm sure all those holding would be more stressed if you did...ouch  

EDIT: FF don't get me wrong I'm not having a go at you, esp because your new, but some people may have a lot of money riding on this, and any information crediting/discrediting should really be back up if it needs to be said, so theirs no unneccessary panic selloff when it opens.


----------



## constable (15 November 2006)

Flathead Flick said:
			
		

> I've just joined this forum and read through all the SEN posts. Unfortunately, I know how you guys feel - I went through this myself in 2000/01.   SEN is dodgy at best.
> 
> Look into the history of the company and the directors. They have done this before to investors and will do it again. You are being taken for a ride with their rumours and 'announcements' so they can make some cash. I will say no more.
> 
> FF



Ff im interested in some fact to support these notions you have!


----------



## bigdog (15 November 2006)

Two ASX ANN for SEN

1. Update
The Senetas Board of Directors are considering further terms of the capital raising transaction, as a result, the company has requested an extension of the suspension period. The company is confident that it will be in a position to make an announcement on or before the 22 November 2006.
The Annual General Meeting of the company is to be held on the 23 November 2006.


2. Shareholder News
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00668188


----------



## constable (15 November 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> Ff im interested in some fact to support these notions you have!



Here mr facty facty, are you there mr facty facty?.....im over here now mr facty!


----------



## Kauri (15 November 2006)

Is this the same company that blew its share registry out to over 1 billion shares by issuing script all over the shop before having a share consolidation??


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

Are they suppose to start trading again today ?


----------



## bigdog (22 November 2006)

Notice of Annual General Meeting to be held Thursday 23 November 2006

You would expect some good news to be issued yoday prior to AGM tomorrow

Maybe today!


----------



## redandgreen (22 November 2006)

This SEN story has become so tiresome.    
The moment they start trading again I'm OUT!!!!!! :


----------



## bigdog (22 November 2006)

Just ANN to ASX

SHAREHOLDER UPDATE
Senetas anticipates that the capital raising will be completed by 5pm Wednesday 22 November 2006, in the event that the capital raising is not fully completed by this time the company will withdraw resolution 5 from the business of the Annual General Meeting on the 23 November 2006 and will immediately inform the market of its decision to do so. Senetas will request the ASX to lift the suspension on Thursday 23 November 2006.


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

This very long trading suspension is very annoying I have to say. It better be good news when the share re-start trading tomorrow.


----------



## bigdog (23 November 2006)

ASX ANN today states:
Senetas has requested the ASX to lift the suspension period and expects to resume trading on Thursday 23 November 2006.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061123/pdf/3zqm30rw62rp4.pdf

SHAREHOLDER UPDATE
Senetas advises that, as at this time, the company has not completed its proposed capital raising with IKL Management Co. Ltd, the company withdraws Resolutions 3 and 4 from the Business of the Annual General Meeting (AGM) to be held on 23 November 2006.

Resolution 4 was an incident of the capital raising and predicated completion by the AGM. Due to both the nature and size of the proposed investment it was not possible for IKL to complete by the 23rd November 2006. Resolution 3 was to facilitate a possible restructuring of the Senetas board associated with the strategic investment.

We regret the Capital raising project has not been finalized. Both parties are working to complete the transaction as soon as possible.

Senetas has requested the ASX to lift the suspension period and expects to resume trading on Thursday 23 November 2006.


----------



## bigdog (23 November 2006)

Smuggler from HotCopper posts:

anyone seeing any good in this are persons desperate because of their holdings.

this is as close to the biggest sham the ASX has seen its not funny.

In fact would not surprise me to see and ASX and ASIC investigation into this entire matter.

where this goes now is anybodys guess.

There has been NO news on any contracts and all this fiasco has done is to take scrutiny of the business off itself.

Now everyone has to focus on what SEN has or is doing in terms of revenues.

I would say this also could be another reason why the placement collapsed.

Did the "investors" get to see how bad things are at SEN???

there are too many red flags on this now.....and has danger written all over it until there is more clarity on the business and this transaction.


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

Note that they did not say that the capital raising was off but was just not finalized at this stage.
I agree there was no real reason to keep the share in trading suspension for that long.
Let's see what the agm brings but the opening will probably not be very favourable to SEN


----------



## constable (23 November 2006)

bigdog said:
			
		

> Smuggler from HotCopper posts:
> 
> anyone seeing any good in this are persons desperate because of their holdings.
> 
> ...




Must admit they've made all the investors wait a month for no result and certainly looks embarrassing for the company. There has been no real information released which is frustrating and as investor i have found their behaviour towards shareholders contemptuous.

That aside im not going to jump on the cynic bandwagon. Suggesting this is a big sham, suggesting that their deal has failed and whatever else people can conjure up, really is just their temporary replacement for the want of FACT.


----------



## Ken (23 November 2006)

feel for investors here. i suspect sharp drop in share price is on cards??


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> feel for investors here. i suspect sharp drop in share price is on cards??



I am not sure about that. It is very annoying way of treating investors but the company fundamentals have not changed at all


----------



## bigdog (23 November 2006)

down 9 cents to 37.5 and now 38.5

Not good


----------



## bigdog (23 November 2006)

I believe that SEN business has great potential and is exciting stuff

AGM is undeway and presentation posted ASX

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00670742

CHAIRMANS ADDRESSS – 23 NOVEMBER 2006
SENETAS HIGHLIGHTS FULL-YEAR TO 30 JUNE 2006
Highlights for the 2005-2006 year included the following:
• $9.7 million Net Profit Before Tax - up over 25%
• Increases Total Revenue: $23.6 Million – up 4%
• New strategy being implemented to improve product distribution
• Earnings affected by lower than expected O/S distributor results
• Increased R&D investment to maintain market-leading CypherNET technology
• Proof of concept shown for encryption of popular microwave networks
• New Senetas CEO completes restructure to build multi-channel sales
• Suspension of dividend policy due to a planned corporate alliance and strategic investment

A significant part of the profit last year was a result of our sale to InfoProtect. I will say more about this later but it does highlight the need for broadening Senetas’ strategic approach and freeing itself up to and then finding new distribution channels.

The company remains debt free with $5.5 million cash at bank.
We also had a number of significant strategic achievements for the year.
ACHIEVEMENTS FOR 2006 FY
• Completed Proof of Concept for encrypted microwave data
• SONET encryptor gains US FIPS accreditation
• RTM improved with new SafeNet agreement
• Senetas extends Signalguard reseller agreement for Asia
• Nextgen to market Senetas-encrypted VPLS service
• CypherBlade technology under development
• Senetas developing Quantum Cryptography solution


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

I think there is a bit of over reaction in this morning sell off. It might offer some good opportunities to buy back at a good price. SEN is debt free which is quite valuable


----------



## constable (23 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I think there is a bit of over reaction in this morning sell off. It might offer some good opportunities to buy back at a good price. SEN is debt free which is quite valuable



hmmm.....i wonder if the panic merchants, who listened to the doomsdayers, are buying back their stock? Herd mentality never ceases to amaze me!


----------



## betrade (23 November 2006)

Struggler is possibly the biggest loser of all.  What ever this guys says do the opposite!  Read some of the QTK thread on HC.  He has bought 3 million of these shares which he is a LONG way down on.  He is desparately trying to ramp up this stock. 

Apparently has done the same a couple of times before.  I believe BQT is anoter one of his investments that have gone horribly wrong.  Struggler is articlular, researches hard, and then always seems to buy at the wrong time.  

He is also extremely arrogant, and never ever wrong.  Of course.
Follow this snake oil charmer at your own peril!!!!!

Regards

B



			
				bigdog said:
			
		

> Smuggler from HotCopper posts:
> 
> anyone seeing any good in this are persons desperate because of their holdings.
> 
> ...


----------



## bigdog (24 November 2006)

Todays Australian reported
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20812298-23634,00.html

Senetas back on the boards
CRITERION
Tim Boreham 
November 24, 2006
Senetas (SEN) 42c 

THEY'RE baaaack! After a five-week absence from the boards, the IT house and day traders' favourite resumed trading just as the faithful gathered for yesterday's AGM.  With expected news of the $26 million capital raising and accompanying strategic investment failing to materialise, the shares did well to lose only 4.5c, or 10 per cent. 

There's a profit warning as well: first-half profits will be down by "more than 15 per cent" on the previous $1.2 million. Given the length of the self-imposed suspension, management had desperately wanted to seal the deal before the AGM. "We turned out to be wrong, by perhaps days," said chairman Francis Galbally. 

So with the vaunted 55c-a-share raising not going "as smoothly or expeditiously as we would have liked", all management could offer holders was "short-term pain for mid to long-term gain". 

Galbally maintains the nub of Senetas's revenue problems - its underperforming global distributor SafeNet - has been fixed. After a SafeNet management reshuffle, a "mutually more collaborative" relationship is showing results. Alas, these aren't showing on the sales line - or at least, not yet. 

"Senetas expects far better results in the second half as the expanded business model begins to affect results for product sales," Galbally says. 

Management yesterday was mum on strategic investment - confidentiality reasons and all that - but reassured folk the investment would "further enhance our penetration of key markets". 

Despite the share suspension, Senetas has remained a hot topic in share chat rooms. Many holders remain convinced about the market prospects of the company's home-grown high-speed encryption products, but some have been convinced (probably wrongly) that Senetas will be taken over. 

Criterion backed Senetas last year when the company appeared to have a decent head of revenue steam, selling to high-security customers such as police and military authorities. 

These home-grown products could still be the best thing since the last best thing, but Senetas simply isn't selling enough of them to justify a $190 million market valuation. 

It's possible the proposed transaction will be a company-transforming (that is, big) deal, given Senetas has no debt and $5.5 million of cash. 

Criterion rated Senetas an AVOID at 35c on September 14 after the lacklustre full-year results. We misjudged investor willingness to give Senetas the benefit of the doubt, but see no reason to change that call. 

Senetas has emerged as an accident-prone disappointment, but we remain open to evidence to the contrary.


----------



## Mumbank (24 November 2006)

Gee that's encouraging!


----------



## Fab (24 November 2006)

Holding nicely after all the negative information


----------



## constable (29 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Holding nicely after all the negative information



Little rally going on here......suprising as i would have thought the longer they prolong the ann. the more damage to the sp. ,may well be an air of expectation creeping in . Still holding at 48.5 waited this long im beyond frustration !


----------



## Fab (29 November 2006)

My update shows 0.44 not 0.485 but I have a 15 mns delay as I am watching it from work on the asx website


----------



## constable (29 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> My update shows 0.44 not 0.485 but I have a 15 mns delay as I am watching it from work on the asx website



fab thats the price i paid for the stock b4 they went into suspension they are currently at .445 @ 3.06pm ( i wish they were at 48.5!)


----------



## Fab (29 November 2006)

Constable,

They should go back there that is my belief as I am expecting that the deal that they were talking about will go through it is a question of time now.
If and when it goes through then this one should shoot up and that is why I am keeping it.


----------



## constable (29 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Constable,
> 
> They should go back there that is my belief as I am expecting that the deal that they were talking about will go through it is a question of time now.
> If and when it goes through then this one should shoot up and that is why I am keeping it.



one million buyers at 43.5 im about to cry tears of joy!


----------



## Fab (5 December 2006)

Capital raising finalized today at 0.55 cents. Now it should run at least to 0.55. At least that is what I am expecting as they are even more cashed up


----------



## constable (5 December 2006)

Well to the market its like being slapped with a lettuce leaf, hard to believe holders have waited over a month for this groundbreaking news and once its released nothing happens!


----------



## bigdog (5 December 2006)

The winners were Directors Galbally, Lunt and another shareholder that sold 21 million shares at 55 cents to IKL

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00675145


----------



## SevenFX (5 December 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> Well to the market its like being slapped with a lettuce leaf, hard to believe holders have waited over a month for this groundbreaking news and once its released nothing happens!




There's only one way to punish the Company....

I feel for you guys, and was nearly tempted some time back.


----------



## Fab (5 December 2006)

Actually after today's result annoucement I would have expected a bigger correction. It makes me feel better so that IKL bought at 0.55 which means to me that they value the company at more than 55 cents


----------



## constable (5 December 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Actually after today's result annoucement I would have expected a bigger correction. It makes me feel better so that IKL bought at 0.55 which means to me that they value the company at more than 55 cents



I like how they released the "good news" first followed by a "profit downgrade" chaser.... these guys are unreal!


----------



## bigdog (5 December 2006)

There were two ASX ANN today

1. directors sell 2.1 million at .55 cents

2. profit downgrade

Sounds like doom and gloom to me

Big problems with Safenet USA partner
-- does not pay royalities 
-- in trouble with US gov for options
-- CFO fired

Suggest that you SELL ASAP


----------



## constable (5 December 2006)

bigdog said:
			
		

> There were two ASX ANN today
> 
> 1. directors sell 2.1 million at .55 cents
> 
> ...



if someone is willing to put 40mill on the line i dont mind putting 20k on the line (as much as these pricks frustrate me)!!!


----------



## bigdog (6 December 2006)

Well done ASF members for reporting the following observations yesterday which has been reported in the Australian today

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20879229-643,00.html

Senetas investors 'gobsmacked'
Michael West 
December 06, 2006
IRATE investors in data security company Senetas watched their stock get thumped yesterday as Senetas revealed a profit downgrade just one hour after declaring its chairman and others had sold a large stake.
At 11.48am, Senetas announced chairman Francis Galbally, director Ron Lunt and "another associated Senetas shareholder" had sold 21 million shares at 55c apiece to a mystery offshore company, IKL Management. 

One hour and 20 minutes later at 1.08pm, Senetas gobsmacked its investors with a profit downgrade. The stock slumped from 46c, hitting a low of 40.5c after the bad news, before closing at 42.5c. 

"Are these guys taking control without offering other shareholders the same deal?" asked one angry stockbroker who had clients in the stock. The Australian was unable to contact Senetas last night. 

Although the company's announcement does not indicate when Mr Galbally and Mr Lunt struck their deal, it was part of a broader $40 million capital raising for the "purposes of a future strategic investment" through a combination of a private placement of 46.02 million shares at 55c a share and a convertible note for $14.72 million in a transaction managed by Shaw Corporate Finance. 

The nature of the investment, said the announcement cryptically, would be "commercially confidential for some time". 

"In preparation for the investment, Senetas had entered into a strategic alliance with IKL Management Group." 

Then, adding to the mystique: "IKL is a special purpose investment company representing significant investors based in the US and several other countries." 

Besides the 46 million share placement, and the 21 million shares from the principals, IKL will take a $14.72 million convertible note (whose terms were not made public yesterday). 

One investor said Senetas shareholders would have been buoyed at the news that a placement had been done above the market price, only to discover, little over an hour later, an earnings downgrade. 

Senetas, which made a $1.2 million net profit for the first half last year, conceded this year's first half would be a loss of $1.5 million to a $400,000 profit before tax.


----------



## bigdog (6 December 2006)

The Australian today suggest punters take the directors' hint and SELL. 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20878279-23634,00.html

CRITERION
Tim Boreham 
December 06, 2006

Senetas (SEN) 42.5c 

THERE'S good and bad news from the high-speed encryption outfit and - once again - the sum effect is that holders are none the wiser. 

Yesterday Senetas came good with its long-awaited capital raising: $40 million at 55c apiece and a $14.7 million convertible note issued to a mysterious offshore investment company, IKL Management Group. 

The long-awaited strategic investment for which the funds were raised "will be commercially confidential for some time". 

It's jolly good to see IKL expressing such a vote of confidence in Senetas's prospects. If only the same could be said for chairman Francis Galbally and director Ron Lunt, who are lightening their holdings to the tune of 21 million shares sold to IKL. 

And what's this "results guidance" pointing to a first (December) half result of between $400,000 and a $1.5 million loss? 

Technically, its consistent with last month's warning of a result "at least 15 per cent below" last year's $1.2 million. 

Senetas promises a better second half as royalties flow in from rejigged distribution arrangements, but it's just not good enough for a $200 million market cap stock. 

We suggest punters take the directors' hint and SELL. 

mailto:borehamt@theaustralian.com.au


----------



## SevenFX (6 December 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> these guys are unreal!




I assuming this a typo, and you mean *"Unbeleivable" "UnEthical" "UnScrouplas" and perhaps "UnAttractive Investment".*



			
				bigdog said:
			
		

> The Australian today suggest punters take the directors' hint and SELL.






			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> There's only one way to punish the Company....




EDIT: This this not the *Honerable* "Francis Gallbally" founder of "Gallbally & Associates" the law firm in Melbourne...????


----------



## constable (6 December 2006)

SevenFX said:
			
		

> I assuming this a typo, and you mean *"Unbeleivable" "UnEthical" "UnScrouplas" and perhaps "UnAttractive Investment".*



You do have to add a great deal of sarcasm to  "unreal " !! But yes any of these other woulds would fit in quite easily.


----------



## breakeven (6 December 2006)

I don't like or trust that the terms of the  convertible note are withheld!  Whats the bet, going on SEN's past record of distain for shareholders, that they are very favourable to make up for the 'gift' to directors?  I once held this and got out for a small loss. If you can't trust the management don't go near the company!


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

I hold SEN and I don't like what I am reading at the moment


----------



## constable (6 December 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I hold SEN and I don't like what I am reading at the moment



ditto , now they're in pre open again , what next? Lets see if they can do any more damage to the share price!


----------



## slimdusty96 (6 December 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> ditto , now they're in pre open again , what next? Lets see if they can do any more damage to the share price!




I must say that it's hard to imagine any news that can be worse than a profit downgrade we just received (in the positive background of someone investing 46 mils at 55c), so we could be looking forward to something positive!


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

slimdusty96 said:
			
		

> I must say that it's hard to imagine any news that can be worse than a profit downgrade we just received (in the positive background of someone investing 46 mils at 55c), so we could be looking forward to something positive!




I agree with the reasoning, at least I am hoping you are right. Anyway they appear to be abusing a bit of trading halt.


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

The SEN annoucement has just been made after trading halt and it is not really  the positive announcement I was hoping for.


----------



## bigdog (6 December 2006)

SEN ASX ANN just posted

SEN 4:21 PM  Clarification re Capital Raising 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00675682


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

Bigdog,

What do you make of it ? Does not sound very positive to me ?


----------



## bigdog (6 December 2006)

FAB - Took much time to find copy to paste from Westpac Broking ANN
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00675682

Covering bases and trying to tell us that things have not happened yet and they screwed up the ANN by not consulting SHAW Stockbroking 

Clarification re Capital Raising
Senetas wishes to clarify its announcement to the market on 5 December, 2006.

The Placement Offer and Convertible Note Agreements were *executed * by the parties to the transaction on *19 September 2006*.

Senetas and IKL will *not exchange counterparts of those Agreements unless and until IKL has deposited monies * into a trust account. Shares will not be allotted until the funds have been received into trust.

Due to an oversight the company did not provide SHAW Corporate Finance Pty Limited nor SHAW Stockbroking Limited with an opportunity to review the announcement before it was made yesterday.  *The announcement was made as a result of a misunderstanding relating to the transmission of the funds.*

*No element of the transaction has been completed * including the transfer of shares from Senetas Chairman, Francis Galbally, Director Ron Lunt and another associated Senetas shareholder.

*To date, the monies have not been received * into the trust account. Senetas will advise the market when the funds are received.
The Company is in compliance with the Australian Stock Exchange Listing Rule 3.1.


----------



## bigdog (7 December 2006)

SEN have been queried by ASX

Frank's G response advised and covering bases and their arsx

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00675872


----------



## Go Figure (7 December 2006)

Some Questions for anyone who can answer them.......

1. Who is the person, persons or firm buying this stock today 7/12/06 and why (considering what we the shareholders have been told)?

2. Do the directors of this company know where Rodney Adler resides?

3. What is the ASX doing if anything regarding mistakes or timliness of these current and prior announcements?

Thanks


----------



## constable (19 December 2006)

A lot of build up in buyers happening here. As much as I hate this share it can run pretty quick when it breaks, worth keeping an eye on it.


----------



## Fab (19 December 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> lot of build in buyers  happening here. As much as i hate this share it can run pretty quick when it breaks, worth keeping an i on it.




Yep I noticed that too that is why I am not selling I believe when they receive the money from whoever was offering them 0.55 by shares this should bring the share price much higher


----------



## constable (5 January 2007)

Did my bickies on this share but glad i got out when i did (44 cent from memory) then i went back in and lost another k.
Anyway she's lost all credibility now imo. 
Am i right in saying they still haven't actually confirmed the "deal/capital raising" after all the drama ,f ups and trading halt?
"Senetas will advise the market when the funds are received"
No funds yet would mean to me no deal yet. Share price at 34.5c would suggest that holders have lost confidence. dyor


----------



## bigdog (5 January 2007)

ASX Ann today that might please some!

Galbally steps down as Chairman and replaced by politician Stockdale

SEN 4:12 PM   Senetas Announces Restructure of Company Board 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00683402


----------



## bigdog (9 January 2007)

ASX announcement Jan 8
SEN 1:07 PM  Senetas Withdraws from Capital Raising Transaction 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00683630

Todays newspaper provide update on ann and covers prior events leading up to today.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21029955-664,00.html

"Senetas in share slump"
Mathew Charles
January 09, 2007 12:00am

SHARES in hi-tech Victorian company Senetas were pummelled yesterday after it revealed a $40 million capital raising had been abandoned.

The news wiped 12.5 per cent from the company's share price, which closed down 4.5 to 31.5. 

The crunch coincided with new chairman and former Victorian treasurer Alan Stockdale's first day on the job after Senetas announced his appointment Friday afternoon. 

Although the raising was first proposed more than two months ago the plan was affected by a series of postponements and involved an extended trading halt. 

Senetas told the share market yesterday it cancelled the transaction because it had not received required funds from the proposed investor, IKL Management. 

"While the strategic objective behind the transaction remains a key corporate objective of the company, the board believes that the planned transaction cannot presently be completed on a basis and on timelines acceptable to Senetas." 

Company secretary Andrew Wilson said he was unable to add any further detail to the ASX announcement. 

Exactly what the "strategic objective" involved has not been disclosed to the market for reasons of commercial confidence. 

On December 5, in a statement to the market regarding the capital raising, the company said "the nature of the future investment will be commercially confidential for some time". 

At that time it said that in preparation for the investment Senetas had struck a "strategic alliance" with IKL Management Group. 

Exactly what IKL does or who it involves has not been revealed. 

According to the December 5 announcement: "IKL is a special purpose investment company representing signficant investors based in the US and several other countries." 

The transaction was mentioned in the notice of the annual meeting on October 24. 

It said IKL would be issued with 46,020,443 shares at 55 each in October/November 2006 "for purposes of a future strategic investment placement". 

Then, two days later, trading in Senetas shares was suspended. 

Despite subsequent announcements to the market that it expected its shares to return to trade, the suspension remained in place until November 23. 

When Senetas returned to trade it said the placement had still not occcurred. 

On December 5, it told shareholders IKL would be issued with 46.02 million shares at 55 each and take up a convertible note for $14.72 million. 

At the time it told shareholders it had already raised the $40 million. 

In addition it said IKL "will also acquire 21 million shares" from then chairman and company founder Francis Galbally, former director Ron Lunt and "another associated Senetas shareholder". 

The next day it clarified the announcement, saying the transaction would not proceed until the funds were deposited into a trust account.


----------



## UMike (17 January 2007)

It Is still dragging along below the 30c mark.


----------



## constable (31 January 2007)

UMike said:
			
		

> It Is still dragging along below the 30c mark.



well i couldnt help but notice the share price now....26c after a low of 25.5c.
Bargain or bottom? 
Cant help myself im holding sen "again"


----------



## Fab (31 January 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> well i couldnt help but notice the share price now....26c after a low of 25.5c.
> Bargain or bottom?
> Cant help myself im holding sen "again"



Not sure but this one is a lemon @ the moment. I think we need an announcement to get it back on track and we might need to be very patient. Some dividend payment would help but some how I don’t think this will happen


----------



## constable (31 January 2007)

Fab said:
			
		

> Not sure but this one is a lemon @ the moment. I think we need an announcement to get it back on track and we might need to be very patient. Some dividend payment would help but some how I don’t think this will happen



Fab are they still paying a div or has this been suspended looking at westpac broking forecasts they are still saying $0.003c, (third of a cent)?


----------



## Fab (31 January 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> Fab are they still paying a div or has this been suspended looking at westpac broking forecasts they are still saying $0.003c, (third of a cent)?



I don't think they paid any last time around but if they could pay even that little this time. This might help to ease the pain


----------



## Lert (31 January 2007)

SEN paid me 0.75 cents/share on 31/3/06.. presume it will be something like that this year.. I hope.


----------



## bigdog (31 January 2007)

ASX ANN today - some news is better than no news!!

SEN 3:56 PM  10 Gigabit high speed Ethernet Encryptor 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689297


----------



## UMike (31 January 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> ASX ANN today - some news is better than no news!!
> 
> SEN 3:56 PM  10 Gigabit high speed Ethernet Encryptor
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689297




:lol: So thats why it went up a cent after the close.

Here's hopeing.


----------



## UMike (31 January 2007)

Lert said:
			
		

> SEN paid me 0.75 cents/share on 31/3/06.. presume it will be something like that this year.. I hope.



 I got that also. 

I'd rather the share price go up by 1c.


----------



## Fab (2 February 2007)

Finally some news and it seems like it is good news from SEN today


----------



## UMike (2 February 2007)

Fab said:
			
		

> Finally some news and it seems like it is good news from SEN today



Yep and opened higher. 

But closed lower. Yet more losing shares bought today


----------



## CanOz (2 February 2007)

UMike said:
			
		

> Yep and opened higher.
> 
> But closed lower. Yet more losing shares bought today




Too many weaker hands keen to unload shares IMO. Should consolidate for a while, take out some more supply before it can move up again.

 

Cheers,


----------



## UMike (2 February 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Too many weaker hands keen to unload shares IMO. Should consolidate for a while, take out some more supply before it can move up again.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers,



True. But today they were very big weaker hands.


----------



## Mumbank (9 February 2007)

God could the news get any worse!!  What will the price drop to now?


----------



## silence (9 February 2007)

25.5c seems to be support...anyone buying up?


----------



## UMike (9 February 2007)

Really..... I have no luck with this Share.   

I nearly sold half my holdings last night and today I almost bought at my long standing order of 25c.   

Really the ann was what I expected (although not when I expected it) and if the loss was within the forecast range the SP may have even got back up to a respectable amount.


----------



## UMike (13 February 2007)

Last 2 days has really fired up.

Closed at 31.5c now.

Any clues????


----------



## Fab (16 February 2007)

UMike said:
			
		

> Last 2 days has really fired up.
> 
> Closed at 31.5c now.
> 
> Any clues????




When are the half yearly result due and next dividend? My thought on the one is that the  worst of the news is behind us and SEN were positive about the second half of the year. The problem is I don't know if I can wait for this one to bounce back in the current market.


----------



## UMike (16 February 2007)

Fab said:
			
		

> When are the half yearly result due and next dividend?



 You do know they issued a Royalty/profit downgrade with one of their partners SafeNet.
I haven't got my research handy but I believe there will be no divided. 



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> My thought on the one is that the  worst of the news is behind us and SEN were positive about the second half of the year. The problem is I don't know if I can wait for this one to bounce back in the current market.



I was hoping It'd get back to the 40- 50 cent mark but after the positive run it has now closed at 28c.  

I'm gonna wait.... But it is more my stubbornness to recover my losses than smart business sense.

This is my highest loss company ever in my share trading.
I belive I'll be proved right one day and I wana be holding some shares at that time.


----------



## Fab (17 February 2007)

UMike said:
			
		

> You do know they issued a Royalty/profit downgrade with one of their partners SafeNet.
> I haven't got my research handy but I believe there will be no divided.
> 
> 
> ...




I am a bit like you there but the problem I am having is why not sell take the loss and invest in a good company like BHP for example which is almost certain to go up.


----------



## LifeisShort (17 February 2007)

Fab said:
			
		

> I am a bit like you there but the problem I am having is why not sell take the loss and invest in a good company like BHP for example which is almost certain to go up




I think thats the problem with investors who hold on too long and have attachments to the company. One needs to be unemotional when making investment decisions and a lot of punters suffer when they hold onto a stock that keeps pumping out bad news hoping for a turnaround. Like u mentioned its better to make a small loss andinvest into something different then a big loss and waste investment time.

Thats what I think anyway


----------



## UMike (17 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> I think thats the problem with investors who hold on too long and have attachments to the company. One needs to be unemotional when making investment decisions and a lot of punters suffer when they hold onto a stock that keeps pumping out bad news hoping for a turnaround. Like u mentioned its better to make a small loss andinvest into something different then a big loss and waste investment time.
> 
> Thats what I think anyway



 I totally agree. I won't invest in API for this reason.

However.

There is nothing wrong in buying SEN for 27.5c or 25c and selling them for 30c or 31c. Then buying them back when they drop to 27.5c or 25c again.  

I intend to make up my losses in dribs and drabs and this strategy is working for this share only.


----------



## stiger (17 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> I think thats the problem with investors who hold on too long and have attachments to the company. One needs to be unemotional when making investment decisions and a lot of punters suffer when they hold onto a stock that keeps pumping out bad news hoping for a turnaround. Like u mentioned its better to make a small loss andinvest into something different then a big loss and waste investment time.
> 
> Thats what I think anyway



Well said! Sen to me is just a curiosity now and taught me a lesson .Never  ever believe drawn out convoluted stories like sen.Cheers[there is a hundred mobs just like sen out there and some of the stories are very similar be very wary and dodge the hype]dyor


----------



## Frank D (20 February 2007)

Last report in August 2006 needed SEN to close above 49 cents at the end of the month after the 3-week cross over, but it failed to do so….







If we follow the steps in the above chart…

#1 breakdown of the 3-week trailing lows in January 2006 (white step formation)

#2 breakdown of the 3 month trailing lows, and now trading below the 3-quarterly dynamic 50% levels (yellow dotted line)

#3 cross over the 3 week trailing highs, bouncing off the 3-quarterly dynamic lows in May 2006

#4 failure at the 3-month highs in August 2006

Now…. Bouncing off the 3-quarterly lows once again in January 2007.. 

What traders need to see is the 3-week
highs break again, and then for price to 
move back above the forward projected
3-quarterly 50% levels From 1st April March 2007 
(.035 cents)

A major breakout would see a breakout of .0048 in the following quarter from April 2007, confirmed with a monthly close above .0048 cents. 

Expectation is then to move towards the highs in the following quarter from July-September 2007 (2-3month rally)

The critical technical level using the AMT model is the next quarterly dynamic 50% level starting in April 2007.

*Frank Dilernia.

Not trading advice just use for educational purpose *


----------



## bigdog (22 February 2007)

ASX ann today
SEN 10:06 AM  Half Yearly Report/Half Year Accounts 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00695646

SP today with no change
SEN   $0.265    $0.00  0.00  357,663 shares $96,245  @ 22-Feb 11:09:40 

Senetas reports half-year results and restructures for growth

Half-year results to 31 December 2006:
• $1.5 million Net Loss

• Earnings affected by
o $500K lower than expected O/S distributor results
o $500K M&A costs
o $400K compliance cost
o $1.4 million R&D investment to maintain market lead

• Well positioned for growth by 2008
o Restructure complete, Senetas remains debt free
o Expanded global sales channels
o New world-leading products in development

Senetas Corporation Limited (ASX: SEN), today announced a loss of $1.5 million on total revenues of $5.7 million for the period to 31 December 2006.

The latest result was affected by significantly lower than forecast royalty payments from its overseas distributor and a series of one-off expenditures.  
The non-recurring costs mark a new strategic emphasis on building distribution channels in new markets whilst maintaining Senetas’ market-leadership in encryption technology.  
They include: merger and acquisition costs associated with the discontinued capital raising, research and development expenditure of $1.4 million on high speed network encryption and an investment of $400,000 to complete re-design of the company’s technology platform so as to be fully compliant with directives necessary to continue and increase sales to the EU.

While Senetas received a $1.7 million R&D payment from its US partner during the half year to December 2005, no R&D payments were received for the half year to December 31, 2006. After deducting the effect of the $1.7 million R&D payment, Senetas revenues for the 2005 half year rose from $5.5 million to $5.7 million for the same period in 2006, reflecting significant improvements in consulting services revenue through new business and re-engagements by clients.

Senetas CEO John DuBois described fiscal year 2007 as “a year of consolidation, building fundamentals for future growth through the balance of 2007 and, especially, from Fiscal 2008”.


----------



## UMike (22 February 2007)

Closed half a cent lower.


----------



## doyoureallycare (3 April 2007)

*SEN-SENATAS*

Ok i'll try again.


I have noticed a slight increase in volume and share price in SEN over the past week, especially today.

From what I've noticed in the past when this happens, an announcement shortly follows.

Just my opinion!


----------



## LifeisShort (3 April 2007)

*Re: SEN-SENATAS*



doyoureallycare said:


> Ok i'll try again.
> 
> 
> I have noticed a slight increase in volume and share price in SEN over the past week, especially today.
> ...




Who cares, its a dog who one shouldn't touch until fortunes have turned around.....one announcement means nothing when it has had a series of bad ones. Stick right away from this one IMO.


----------



## UMike (3 April 2007)

Yea it might be a dog but it is an oversold dog.


----------



## doyoureallycare (4 April 2007)

Strong buying again today. I bet we'll see an announcement shortly.

It's 10.5c from its low not long ago.

Watch this one!


----------



## Fab (27 April 2007)

Up 7% today in good volume that is a bit new for SEN. Is there something happening behind the scene that we don't know about ??


----------



## Mumbank (27 April 2007)

Fab, I honestly hope so. This is THE most frustrating share to own, however, we live in hope and its now such a small part of the portfolio the world won't come to an end it nothing happens but GEE it showed promise and then just kept going south!!!!  We must be due for a change of direction surely.


----------



## motorway (28 April 2007)

Hello Sen watchers and followers

It is the sort of stock that could be a good turnaround

What do I see 

I see the downtrend becoming dubious
I see at this stage a successful test of the recent low
With some Volume off the bottom
I see  SEN finally ( maybe ) found some equilibrium where a potential move can build , A trading range...

Now all We have to do is be sure of our time frame ( A short termer maybe had a buy signal already ) and identify the right hand edge.. Where range gives way to trend..

The red channel was a valid downtrend channel
The blue channel was created by a  reverse use of trend line..
As was the green channel..

A shallower Valid downtrend channel could be drawn using the last two rally peaks.. This is the main one I would be working with ( But I thought I would leave the chart as I had been working with it )..

I can draw support and resistance lines also now in Brown
these maybe the most important.

The price action in the circle looked positive
But it was really nothing.. 
It showed little demand and sellers waiting to pull the trigger.
The last three bars are positive
We see a sign of strength ,of demand being seen to overcome the supply at that point... It Sets up our trading range..

The secondary test had a lower volume and a higher price.
Good action in the last bar..

The lines are all valid... They are to judge character...
But like a carpenters straight edge.. They don't construct anything on their own... But If We want to see the straight in the curved and the curved in the straight .. If  We want to judge Where the character changes...
We almost can not do without them ( Some pretty wonky buildings would result if the straight edge was not the guide )

cheers
motorway


----------



## irish (29 April 2007)

Hi there, I'm interested in this share, read your posting but frankly I'm out of my depth trying to decipher it.
could you state your view a bit more easily for me?
Thanks


----------



## motorway (29 April 2007)

Hello irish 

While at every trade the number of shares bought and sold is the same..
The eagerness of buyers or the distress of sellers means that
beyond that simple fact.. or above and below the last price  there is always  buying and selling pressure..

If supply exceeds demand it will continue to overcome demand..

Prices will FALL... But they will not just fall immediately or smoothly in a straight line... Prices travel in WAVES as in turn buying and selling gathers and loses a following...

All those buying and selling have their reasons..

They all have different time frames, information and a stating point ( Their cost price ) .

A sequence of waves make up a trend...
As Trends unfold they run their course .. Information is behind them .. Information  is dispersed by them..

Everyone knows at the top What they should have bought
Everyone knows at the bottom what they should have sold

Only those who really  know , know in between or at or near the beginning of the trends.

The SEN chart has been in a downtrend 
The people buying have not initiated any new trends.

There as been little sign of a reality here that says Good things are here and they are near..

My comments are observations about the trend and the waves in the trend.
The selling and buying pressure .

You see the lowest point on the chart
Volume increased but the price moved up off that low..

How ?  Buying pressure ... DEMAND

You see the current low ?
Again  You see the volume increase
A slightly HIGHER low ? Slightly LOWER volume ?
AGAIN demand , buying pressure.

But this time more URGENT... Buyers did not wait for lower prices
And When they bought there was less quantity to buy..

SO signs of Buyers becoming more keen and urgent and the sellers LESS..

The down waves at this moment are losing a following
the up waves are gathering a following

That is what was the successful test of the low..
( _A secondary test _)

Think of the tides of the sea

The waves go back and forth but the tide surges in
At the peak The tide is stationary  Waves still go back and forth.

But their _behavior changes_ 

My post is a comment on the waves and the tide
Not with any theoretical overlay ( elliot ) But as they are..
I can only catch real waves and real tides.

Each wave is a test of demand and supply
Richard Wyckoff in the quote from below 
states that the responses reveal the technical position

When all who would sell have sold
Then We will have a strong technical position
The waves will look different when there is no longer any selling pressure.

there will be a trading range ..

Now We look to  the response from this test.. What happens in the rally .. How much of a following will _it_ gather ? What response will it in turn generate ? duration , Volume ,the relative strength compared to previous  ..

This form of analysis 

Is called the Wyckoff Method
named after Richard Wyckoff

hope that helps..



cheers
motorway


----------



## irish (29 April 2007)

thankyou very much for all that.

you certainly put it all very eloquently.  Much appreciated.  

Irish


----------



## motorway (30 April 2007)

> A shallower Valid downtrend channel could be drawn using the last two rally peaks.. This is the main one I would be working with ( But I thought I would leave the chart as I had been working with it )..




So here is everything as I see  made sensitive..

I posted some links to accumulation / distribution schematics

briefly

Preliminary support.... First sign of strong demand .. Doesn't turn the trend
But someone is buying and the continuation of the trend is now qualified..

Selling Climax.... Point where  where demand was seen to overcome supply.. and maybe is the termination point.

Automatic rally.... Drift upwards created by the vacuum in selling pressure. No strong demand

secondary test.... A test of the buying that was in the climax .. Is the stock being bought and held .. Do We see continued sign of change in demand supply equation... ( At this stage yes )

The last bar shows strength .. It is a strong bar .. good response from the test..

The blue channel is defining the immediate trend
The green trend line is a reverse use of trend line
It is the angle where demand the opposite force has been seen to emerge.

The interaction with the upper channel line will set up a possible apex..

Do I have a Buy signal 

For me NO..

But strong signs that the downtrend is dubious
and nice action in the last bar

( limited downside is good to see.. But I need to see signs of possible upside too
or why buy SEN ? )



> Up 7% today in good volume that is a bit new for SEN. Is there something happening behind the scene that we don't know about ??




Exactly... And the subsequent action will reveal..

SEN is atm in a trading range
further tests will reveal if it is accumulation

If so the action from the PS is generating the potential that will power a mark up phase.

I have various things to look at from this point..

cheers
motorway


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 May 2007)

I hate to disagree with your analysis but SEN has a history of disappointing people over many years. Its a wet pessimistic doggie with an optimistic board whose tail keeps on wagging in the face of  a relentless downward trajectory.

The asx announcements on this stock over the last two years read like a Monty Python sketch with losses and mistimings being explained with a vigour befitting a brace of Brians.

Any in depth analysis of SEN over the past few months should be accompanied by a look at its performance since 2000, as displayed on this weekly chart.

My guess would be and I hope I'm wrong for its supporters is that it will dribble along this level or a lower support for a long time before it moves up again, if it ever does.

Sorry to be so pessimistic , but all I can see on this weekly chart are lower lows and lower highs with a dramatic falloff in volume signifying that buyers are scarce and that sellers may become desperate in the weeks to come.


----------



## motorway (27 May 2007)

> Do I have a Buy signal
> 
> For me NO..
> 
> ...





Still watching still waiting
one thing with stocks in SENs situation is 
TAX loss selling ..
Always a two sided coin
represents opputunity 
for those that might see value..

I still have NO buy signal
last bar made a lower low
with reasonable spread down
good volume and a close at the low

This IS a good test
Next week We see the response...

At the moment At best I see SEN still in a trading range..
See what the response is  next week...



> SEN is atm in a trading range
> further tests will reveal if it is accumulation




Still to pass the test


motorway


----------



## motorway (27 May 2007)

Another important point 
regarding the chart..

Is that the last attempted rally was so weak
It could not make it at least to the red trend line..

Significant sign of weakness

motorway


----------



## Mumbank (6 June 2007)

This just keeps on dropping with quite a lot of volume today, particularly since 2pm.  Anyone know what's going on or why so many are bailing out?


----------



## UMike (6 June 2007)

As a past SEN holder I'd think that this is as low as they'd ever go.(I haven't checked out for any ann's for this stock recently.)

However I just don't trust this Company anymore and reckon there are too many traders with inside info for a general trader to confidently pick the bottom of this stock.

I really feel for any holders.


----------



## Fab (7 June 2007)

UMike said:


> As a past SEN holder I'd think that this is as low as they'd ever go.(I haven't checked out for any ann's for this stock recently.)
> 
> However I just don't trust this Company anymore and reckon there are too many traders with inside info for a general trader to confidently pick the bottom of this stock.
> 
> I really feel for any holders.




Yes I am starting to be feeling like that too. I believe the selling is more due to end of year selling to offset possible CGT as SEN must have one of the worse performing stock this year on the ASX


----------



## Lachlan6 (7 June 2007)

Technically (SEN) is very sick. It has just completed a descending triangle pattern with the bearish break through it yesterday to close at $0.16 on big volume. I am thinking that all time lows are not out of the question with SEN, but regardless, this is not one that I would want to be in at the moment. Notice how there really is not that much volume on those little rallies up in March and April, yet the volume on the downward moves is huge. A real sign the smart money is getting out of SEN.


----------



## Fab (18 June 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Technically (SEN) is very sick. It has just completed a descending triangle pattern with the bearish break through it yesterday to close at $0.16 on big volume. I am thinking that all time lows are not out of the question with SEN, but regardless, this is not one that I would want to be in at the moment. Notice how there really is not that much volume on those little rallies up in March and April, yet the volume on the downward moves is huge. A real sign the smart money is getting out of SEN.




Does not really look good indeed. I am wondering if the downtrend in not amplified by the fact that there is some loss taking sell to offset the gain of this financial year which makes the share price going further down.


----------



## motorway (22 June 2007)

But where is volume located  in those down waves 

Is it initiating or is it stopping

I would argue their has been accumulation since the 9th Jan

That does not mean prices go up it is
better in fact that it goes down.

what about Now
A Final culmination ?

We what to see at least a lateral move that now respects support
Or some sort of bounce...............

too early for Me to start buying
But obviously not for others

Just a view and opinion..

motorway


----------



## bigdog (29 August 2007)

SP is above 52 wk low
SEN   	0.097  	  -0.001   	  -1.02%   	563,137 shares $53,577 @  	29-Aug 04:10:38 PM
52-wk High	0.5200
52-wk Low	0.0770

SEN asx ann today
29/08/2007	Preliminary Final Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00753748

*Senetas reports FY 2007 results
Full year results to 30 June 2007:*
• $14.2 million net loss before tax
• Earnings affected by below budget royalties, one off and recurring costs:
o $1.5 million lower than expected O/S distributor results
o One-off costs

$9.6 million write-down of InfoProtect investment
$800K write-down of US manufacturing licence
$500K M&A costs
$400K technology compliance cost
o Recurring costs
$2.0 million R&D investment to maintain market lead
o Expanded global sales channels
o New world-leading products in development
The Board of Senetas Corporation Limited (ASX: SEN), today announced a loss before
tax of $14.2 million on total revenues of $11 million for the period ended June 30, 2007.Senetas reports FY 2007 results
Full year results to 30 June 2007:
• $14.2 million net loss before tax
• Earnings affected by below budget royalties, one off and recurring costs:
o $1.5 million lower than expected O/S distributor results
o One-off costs

$9.6 million write-down of InfoProtect investment
$800K write-down of US manufacturing licence
$500K M&A costs
$400K technology compliance cost

o Recurring costs
$2.0 million R&D investment to maintain market lead
• Restructure complete, Senetas remains debt free
o Expanded global sales channels
o New world-leading products in development

The Board of Senetas Corporation Limited (ASX: SEN), today announced a loss before tax of $14.2 million on total revenues of $11 million for the period ended June 30, 2007.

Outlook
Senetas Chairman, Alan Stockdale said that the normal cycle for sales of Layer 2 encryption devices into the enterprise and government markets is generally around 12-18 months. As a result, the company expects the reseller agreements negotiated through 2007 to begin generating revenue from the 2008 year.

He said Senetas was generating new revenues from maintenance support now sold to users of the CypherNet platform - which includes SafeNet’s licensed high speed encryptor technology.

This is already flowing to Senetas and will deliver significant revenue during 2008. Mr Stockdale said the Board expected sales revenue to grow throughout the year, with the company returning a profit FY2008. He said more specific guidance will be provided at the Senetas AGM in October.


----------



## black_bird2 (29 August 2007)

Post from an inexperienced 'investor', but I have watched these guys for about 6 weeks or so and coming from an IT background, they appear to have a very good product technically speaking. I stress I do not hold yet, I am waiting on at least two ann's that they have good customers on deck first. However technically, the explanations they have produced within their briefs through ann's have appeared technically correct and appealing to certain markets - European defence comes to mind. As always I have not come to the table with good fundamentals in the form of charting etc as I have no experience in that arena, however technically, they appear to have a good product and I continue to wait.


----------



## Fab (6 September 2007)

I don't know their product but I have held SEN for over 1 year and it has been one of my worst performing stock having said that it looks like it has found a bottom around 10 cents and is turning back at the moment so it might be a very good entry point.

I am holding


----------



## moneymajix (6 September 2007)

Up over 12% to 13.5c. Next seller at 14c.

Lot of volume today.

Director buying recently.


http://www.senetas.com/

Senetas Corporation Limited, the world’s leading developer and supplier of high speed network encryption hardware, today announced it was awarded the prestigious Australian Information Industry Association (AIIA) iAward for its security technology. 

Senetas was nominated for its Gigabit Hybrid Quantum Encryption technology developed with its Swiss technology partner, id Quantique... More >


----------



## juw177 (6 September 2007)

Wow, thanks for the heads up. This setup is tip top technical wise showing stopping volume on down days and a reversing falling wedge (i think thats the name) in the last months. The director buying only makes this more attractive. In I go on the intraday high close.


----------



## Fab (6 September 2007)

Indeed that is a very good sign up almost 21% today with directors buying into it. It must be going up again


----------



## SevenFX (6 September 2007)

Fab said:


> It must be going up again




Fab,

Can you tell me which way the *Daily, Weekly & Monthly Trend is heading*, or what are the confirmation signs you are looking at...????

As I can see all the trends pointing in the same direction...????

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## juw177 (6 September 2007)

True Tek.
But MACD has crossed over, it has broken out of its trading range and on good volume today. Looking for breaking 15c and confirmation of support at 15c then it will have broken out.


----------



## SevenFX (6 September 2007)

Opps... looking at the right share chart may be a good idea...so appologies.

Anyway though SEN looks good, it hasn't had much good news lately and will have a lot of overhead resistance ahead, not to mention market pressure.

It may be good for a short run, but short these days differs greatly from short 6months ago... IMO

Back onto the right stock 
Cheers
SevenFX


----------



## motorway (7 September 2007)

A couple of charts to look at..

Daily Bar Chart

Two points of significance
The first large Volume Bar
In context has a climatic look about it.

What was the follow through on the downside since all that selling(?)

What context does the subsequent action provide
esp todays bar ?

The last bar sits at the top of a rally from the low

The horizontal line second from the bottom looks significant
A little upthrust at resistance and then a little jump..

Could all the action now seen to be accumulation ?
Is there a change of behaviour

Taking those points off the Bar chart

What do We see on the P&F chart

early days 

Congestion tighter ?
Some change to sideways ?

motorway


----------



## Fab (7 September 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Fab,
> 
> Can you tell me which way the *Daily, Weekly & Monthly Trend is heading*, or what are the confirmation signs you are looking at...????
> 
> ...





My main sign was that I think the bad news are behind them surely it can not get worse for them. Also 2 directors have recently purchased some more SEN shares so I believe this might be a strong sign of a positive change of fortume for SEN. About time I think


----------



## moneymajix (7 September 2007)

16c

Up over 10% this morning. The move north continues.

Still no news. Interesting that directors are buying, too.


----------



## Fab (7 September 2007)

Another 14% up at the moment. Something is happening there. Big volume too for the second day in the row. Not sure yet what is going on but it looks like I am not the only one who think that they were bottoming 2 days ago


----------



## moneymajix (10 September 2007)

Announcement 

Speeding Ticket response

Not aware of any reason for recent trading activity.


Currently 15.5c


----------



## juw177 (10 September 2007)

Looks like we will be looking at the third day in a row where this closes on its intraday high. I was expecting a bit more consolidation on a day where the DOW got smashed. Anyone know of any pending news?


----------



## motorway (23 September 2007)

> early days




Looking now for a "last point of support"

The Green uptrend channel is anticipatory of that "point" of support.

The points of interest on the Bar chart are the reference points for the upside "implication" on  the P&F chart .

A last point of support
Is needed to confirm the Sign of strength

A SOS and a  LPS 
are one way a zone of congestion can be confirmed as in fact being accumulation and for that accumulation to seen to be concluded.


motorway


----------



## juw177 (27 September 2007)

The support point in Motorway's post has held and now that the shakeout is done, the SP is bouncing back strong. Up 17% today at 14c.


----------



## motorway (16 October 2007)

Hi juw

In a sense it is still early days

BUT ! imo  There is a clear pattern of accumulation happening..

To focus on that pattern here is a 1 box reversal P&F chart
With just the fluctuations as demand and supply meet and take it in turns to overcome each other...

sequence

supply overcoming demand - the flow of prices moving down the trend channel.
demand meeting supply - support visible , mid pattern rally , higher supports, the flow of price has a floor and is moving sideways ( from the support line to the resistance line )  

EQULIBRIUM...

early days because the question is how close is the chart to the Right hand edge, where accumulation ends because there is no-more supply at these prices and some degree of mark up must  follow..

Buyers at this stage are still finding sellers .

One good sign is the drying up of volume with the higher supports holding..

So it comes down to a timing issue
and opportunity cost..

The tentative trend channel on the vertical Bar Chart
Did not define a line of least resistance
Because there was too much resistance ( selling pressure.. supply )..

The pattern on this chart is called a Fulcrum ( called "Ideal" )

"a  support  that supplies a capability for action "

It's name is unimportant
The demand and supply relationships it signifies are..

The pattern  so far has taken 5 mths to form... ( It unfolds in it's own time )

5 mths for fundamentals to be  seen to be changed
5 mths for change of ownership to occur
5 mths for sentiment and contingency to crystallize..

I am Holding some... In on the ground floor ? We will see .
When ( IF ) the mid pattern rally is cleared...It is called a catapult point
At that point The upside implication in the pattern becomes  triggered... ( 45 degree Movement )

Then the price volume relationships become very important..

motorway


----------



## motorway (17 October 2007)

> The tentative trend channel on the vertical Bar Chart
> Did not define a line of least resistance
> Because there was too much resistance ( selling pressure.. supply )..




Well It really is not making a bad fist of it. So maybe I was a bit harsh in that judgement. Still only a tentative trend channel But it was a  nice demand bar today.

Still Early Days 

motorway


----------



## motorway (8 January 2008)

When dealing with a stock in a determined downtrend..

Tactics must be appropriate ( as always  )

I do not wish to follow or fade the crowd

Or to esp engage the bears when they have the upper hand..

We need the tactics of a Joseph Eggleston Johnston rather than John B. Hood

( military campaigns have much in common with stock market ones..All about demand and supply lines  )

There is price volume and time... These alone indicate the critical junctures.
Like Johnston I see the task as only engaging ( in the trade ) when the probability of success is high... Keeping ones powder dry till then is paramount ..



> The most important goal is the preservation of capital.  Every time a market is entered capital is put at risk. Richard D Wyckoff




Some charts of interest
A "test" of the August lows


Still early days
tentative proved to be so

after this test ?

Nice pattern on the 1 box chart ?

3box ( rev ) chart displays that bulls have been up against William T. Sherman.  LOOK at those downtrend lines...
recent action is suggestive of "finding a bottom" 

Now a SOS would be nice ( sign of strength )
motorway


----------



## bandicoot (19 February 2008)

Nice charts. 

Senetas doesn't know how to market itself in the big league. That's why the stock has gone into the toilet. Wiring up a voting booth in Switzerland?  Flogging a couple of boxes to some slack-jawed, damp-collared politicrat in Vietnam? They must be joking. This is the result of Senetas 'not needing' Safenet (or a replacement). Senetas believed that having world class tech, meant they could succeed on the world market alone, all on their lonesome, on the big bad sea. Now they're on a slow boat to commercial irrelevance. 
Have a look at a recent presentation to analysts, mapping out their 'strategic vision.' 
I don't remember all the phrases used, but it's just as well because I nearly shat myself laughing (not as amusing as it may sound).

The same management who straight faced presented that 'going forward' double speak are the same bunch of monkeys steering the company's marketing efforts and R&D. 

It's a waste, because behind those powerpoint-pin-heads there are some genuinely smart people. Power Geeks, I think they're called. 

In the US, Senetas would have seen ten dollars before being snapped up by HP, EMC, or CSCO at twenty dollars. As of date, Senetas is trading just above six cents. What a bunch of losers.


----------



## UMike (19 February 2008)

Dunno about that. They have been historically marketing themselves highly but not delivering the results.

I have no doubts that the company should be higher than it currently is but they need to prove they are capable of and will deliver profitable results.

until then SEN will languish around the sp that they are.


----------



## Fab (28 February 2008)

Finally this one is going up today after annoucing a profit. Can you believe it. I have looked at it fall from 0.8 to 0.06. Looked cheap at current price I have to say. That result is certainly re-assuring the market


----------



## Fab (16 April 2008)

Looks like SEN is willing to move today. Up 10% in good volume. Still a long way to go so. Any idea when the next set of results is due for SEN


----------



## motorway (21 May 2008)

> When dealing with a stock in a determined downtrend..
> 
> Tactics must be appropriate ( as always  )
> 
> ...




From My last comment on this stock...

If you compare this chart to SSI....
While the earlier zone looked promising (.27 objective )

masses of volume 
little price headway

Price Weakness ----------> distribution

and doesnt the announcement out today confirm ?

But that is a classic scenario... price weakness and then the disappointing news....

I will be looking for signs of accumulation
( Would there be a better time ? )

But at this stage , only looking

You can make a lot of $ getting in on the ground floor of something "good"

But it has to turn out good and there has to be a floor..

So now to see if there is some accumulation
to take this out of this downtrend
and negate the downside objective at .03

Just look at the 2% x 3 for a determined down trend.


Again note the 45 degree movement
Congestion zones have exhausted demand instead of supply.

Accumulation =  (informed) early birds...


motorway


----------



## motorway (9 August 2008)

Thought I would update this chart

One might ask update what ?

Not much change ?


Well

The downside objective is fulfilled

And the "character" of the boxes is changing..
it is always the character that makes the difference

I wonder if
 Joseph Eggleston Johnston , ever gets his chance with this one :
... I think he was someone, one could learn from.

 That would be how to conduct a  campaign Successfully ( Or not all all  )

I would look at the .005 x 1 chart as well now

motorway


----------



## motorway (9 August 2008)

I Might as well up date

The 2% x 3 chart as well 

You would expect this too be too noisy..
*it isn't !*

character ?  


motorway


----------



## motorway (27 August 2008)

> Well
> 
> The downside objective is fulfilled
> 
> ...





Highlight that change on this chart ( very sensitive )
 It is 2%x1

The three arrows point to the beginning of 
June July and August

( As far as this chart of SEN is concerned )

Where will September be found ?

There is PRICE
VOLUME and TIME

Waves of BUYING and SELLING
Which we can measure

They build followings 

and responses   So it is always 







> The study of responses






motorway   dis--- I hold


----------



## motorway (14 January 2009)

When is a bottom a bottom ?

Significant halfway point

The thick red line
is a 45 degree diagonal from the ultimate top

( old P&F saying is never buy a stock going down, if it has been going down
only buy it if it has used up all the energy that is behind the downtrend
ie that it has gone sideways as much as it has gone down ( and of course forms a reversal ) and of course it is the principle not the literal that matters)

sounds like Gann ?  But it can't be because it  pre dates Gann 

the herd gets hypnotized by the extreme swings
but the whose hand holds the pendulum itself 

The action at half way points 
is key



motorway


----------



## paulchow2k (7 February 2009)

Hey Motorway,
My chart shows that this security has dropped way below it's listed price. would u expect a very long term consolidation to build up the cause? ie: to long the stock I mean.

In the mean time, I expect it got range a lot. Is that your thinking too.



motorway said:


> When is a bottom a bottom ?
> 
> Significant halfway point
> 
> ...


----------



## motorway (7 February 2009)

paulchow2k said:


> Hey Motorway,
> My chart shows that this security has dropped way below it's listed price. would u expect a very long term consolidation to build up the cause? ie: to long the stock I mean.
> 
> In the mean time, I expect it got range a lot. Is that your thinking too.




Hi Paul

You can not understand a move unless you see it in total context

A great and powerful tool is comparative relative strength

Here are some log P&F charts both 8% x 1
one is the relative chart to the XAO

Rel Str can help define Acc & Dis , Over Bought & Oversold ... Bubble and anti bubble......Whether a move is a deviation back-to  or away-from..

Every box in each chart is 8%  We can look at thrust halfway points
congestion...

But a simple start is to look at the number of boxes ( ground gained or lost )

on the various phases

Rel chart has 46 boxes down on total move down
normal chart has 49

What would this suggest  ?

On the move up from the bottom
both charts have 10 boxes 

The rel chart makes a higher high
and pulls back one box...


Congestion on the charts
= differences of opinion

differences of opinion that relate to value

What is value and what determines it ?

Yes those things called fundamentals. But those of tomorrow !

What else ?

The Technical Position 

This relates to Who is holding

A congestion zone builds a cause because it creates or destroys value
By resolving the differences of opinion
In part by change of ownership

( strong and weak hands )

What is a something worth if you need to sell it yesterday to pay a mortgage

the magic is that when it changes hands ( weak to strong )
The value changes too... The chart will breakout of the congestion zone
and move to a new zone where once again differences of opinion will emerge

Every Box = an agreement on price , but a disagreement on Value



It is starting to rally with the overall market
and hold ground when the market declines

I will be looking for this to continue..

Both charts display a grinding downtrend
from 2006

The relative chart
shows a reversal

A SOS would be very 
significant Now

A move to .05 would be significant


motorway


----------



## paulchow2k (8 February 2009)

I understand what you mean Motorway however what I am not clear about is the fact that the security did not rebound until late december rather than in November. Do you then say that this security is not as strong as the index? Granted that the bounce is stronger when it did.

Do you pay more attention to those which bounces earlier than the index? I'm thinking along the lines of the stronger stocks are held by the strong hands and supporting it on every fall while the weaker ones are supported later. Therefore in my interest to what those closely.

regards

paul



motorway said:


> Hi Paul
> 
> You can not understand a move unless you see it in total context
> 
> ...


----------



## motorway (8 February 2009)

In going long esp look at the down waves

Always look for hidden demand and supply

At the other side becoming active....

eg in looking at thrust observe when it shortens
Then watch the half way points

Same principles apply to Relative Strength..

When the market moves down then look for strength
When the market is moving up then look for weakness

 Looking for strength or weakness  to emerge...

So August 2008 is where the downtrend ended
and where the demand Volume became evident...

The technical position of the Market is important
( new strength old strength  eg rel strength at a market top Vs bottom ?
So not all strength is good strength)

After Aug 08 both charts move up to a Sept high


*Now measure the boxes on the move down to the Dec low*



> But a simple start is to look at the number of boxes ( ground gained or lost )
> 
> on the various phases




What Index in the USA is strongest ?



Paul you will recognize this quote
you read recently




> Here is the SECRET--CORRECT FILTRATION/SELECTING





The waves of buying and selling
of the composite man are the key
it is they that reveal ( They are the reality )

Bar charts are a linear filter with respect to time
But a non linear filter with respect to the waves of the CM
( The real point of interest is looking at the volume, really filtering with volume )


P&F is a non linear filter with respect to time but a linear filter with respect to the CM.. It moves across lockstep with the moves of the CM whatever the time.

SEN might need to see a 300 pt rally in the XAO to get going
( as many small and micro stocks might need )

inorder to see a significant SOS... 

demand met supply from July 08
the DEC low was after the November panic
on lower volume and higher relative strength

Now does the stock become active and respond along with the broader market while retaining relative strength ?

If so there could be a good story unfold


DYOR 




motorway


----------



## genus (17 February 2009)

Judging by the technical babble still going on regarding Senetas, clearly there's still some speculators out there that haven't yet done their nuts on this one. Agreed DYOR. Read the past annual reports and note how excessively directors pat themselves on the back for making and paying relatively insignificant gains and dividends. If at all.


----------



## motorway (28 February 2009)

genus said:


> Judging by the technical babble still going on regarding Senetas, clearly there's still some speculators out there that haven't yet done their nuts on this one.




Only ones that do not look at charts

or better and more accurate  what they reveal

Another look at the relative strength



motorway


----------



## Freddy (24 March 2009)

What is the latest chart details on this one.  I have 40,000 shares but am considering averaging down.  With a price of 2.7cents it MAY be a bargain......


----------



## motorway (25 March 2009)

Freddy said:


> What is the latest chart details on this one.  I have 40,000 shares but am considering averaging down.  With a price of 2.7cents it MAY be a bargain......






Maybe --

POSITION

Where from and where to

How quick is the shadow of the past left behind
This prior down trend and overall mkt too ---Ever ?

IT takes _WORK_

That is what the chart ,charts ---work

Work done is ?

Price has fallen from the recent congestion

( Expected ? first moves up in many small caps will find sellers )

But at the moment has formed a higher LOW
And is building potentially a reversal formation

If you are correct " maybe a bargain"
This zone is a buy zone ( generic chart pattern )

But is it in this particular example

Your call  

Two charts

3 and 1 reversal

BASE BUILDING

Buying in a BASE ( only if it is a BASE  )
Is a primary buying set up

A point of support after a sign of strength

1 rev chart is potentially breaking a diagonal line

( see how price moved along those diagonals in the _past_ )

The work also needs to clear the over head resistance

motorway

I am holding some atm


----------



## Freddy (30 March 2009)

Thanks Motorway, I am going to buy, can't help myself with this one, they have to turn the corner soon and have released some good products recently.  2.9cents is my favourite as I bought a stack of CXY and sold out at 25cents.  Let's hope the same works with this one.

Freddy


----------



## motorway (3 May 2009)

Freddy said:


> Thanks Motorway, I am going to buy, can't help myself with this one, they have to turn the corner soon and have released some good products recently.  2.9cents is my favourite as I bought a stack of CXY and sold out at 25cents.  Let's hope the same works with this one.
> 
> Freddy




Well at this Stage .029 was a good entry

Definitely the behaviour has changed

ATM no more down trend

Accumulation 

I hold But it is early 

motorway


----------



## Freddy (21 May 2009)

Slowly starting to look a bit better.  Almost double the 0.028 I bought at.  What does Motorway think of this one in the current climate?


----------



## motorway (23 May 2009)

Freddy said:


> Slowly starting to look a bit better.  Almost double the 0.028 I bought at.  What does Motorway think of this one in the current climate?




Just one more column since the last chart

I have marked the main swings that have made "THE BOTTOM" dyor

I think it looks positive
With support coming in at higher levels
But It is still early
 A move back to .05 without a move back below .04
would be a sign of strength
and form a pattern that suggest active accumulation
The quicker that happens the stronger the signal
from there it could back and fill again in one box moves
or move above .05 and make things really interesting 

motorway


----------



## Freddy (4 June 2009)

Thanks for that.  They appear to be obtaining more contracts but nothing happens to the share price....keep watching.  My big one is CXY at present, up from 2.8cents last year...


----------



## Freddy (28 July 2009)

Their patent on the encryptor granted in Australia only, but that's a start.  Stock moving nicely today.  I bought 80,000 more to average down to $.268.

Do we see a breakout starting here?


----------



## vxleather (4 August 2009)

Interesting read, this thread shows how the newbie gets sucked in (newbie being me) Read a few articles in papers and magazines about this share and how great the company is bla bla bla... just as I was starting to look at the share market. So me being me bought a few at $0.66 and ever since have given up on the stockmarket... 

Now have a little more interest again and have been still watchin this share with a lot of disgust over the last 12 months. I have now managed to average down the value of my shares to $0.441.

I am now thinking I am starting to see a up trend, and thinking of bying some more to bring my average down to about the $0.10 mark. 

Are we seeing a up trend with this share???

Or is it just a little lump in its down ward run??

what do you guys who follow this share think of its current spike in price???


----------



## jonojpsg (4 August 2009)

vxleather said:


> Interesting read, this thread shows how the newbie gets sucked in (newbie being me) Read a few articles in papers and magazines about this share and how great the company is bla bla bla... just as I was starting to look at the share market. So me being me bought a few at $0.66 and ever since have given up on the stockmarket...
> 
> Now have a little more interest again and have been still watchin this share with a lot of disgust over the last 12 months. I have now managed to average down the value of my shares to $0.441.
> 
> ...




INteresting to read your situation vx - I too have watched SEN over the last couple of years although haven't traded it (or maybe I did once?).  Their product certainly looks the goods and they continue to develop new aspects of it to keep up with the times.  From what I can see they were burnt by the single spruiker syndrome ala Biota - one main reseller that didn't really produce the sales that were expected.

I too have noted the run up over the last week or two and wondered if I might jump in?  They are still making a profit which is always a good thing 

Probably worth waiting until they release final results for 08/09 IMO


----------



## nevieboy (4 August 2009)

Yeah well I purchased 6,600 of these bastards (on stockbrokers advice) back in Jan 2006, at .76c ea. They are now about 93% down. Thank God I don't need the money. They are sitting in the bottom draw for the time being. 
What a dog.


----------



## motorway (29 August 2009)

Is everybody happy ?

I see lots of potential overhead resistance
But continuing good news can render resistance futile
very quickly

at micro-micro caps

cycles are that close to each other
that the "Primary Trend" is almost "The Speculative Trend as well )

14% x 1 chart is a speculative trend chart
But where all other cycles have resolved atm


At important potential breakout level

This IS possibly    The GROUND FLOOR ( give or take 14%  )

motorway


----------



## Freddy (8 September 2009)

They were featured on Today Tonight last week with one of their encryptors, hence the jump to 7 cents.


----------



## motorway (30 September 2009)

motorway said:


> Is everybody happy ?
> 
> I see lots of potential overhead resistance
> But continuing good news can render resistance futile
> ...




Last Three Columns are very strong

Box size = 14%

= unit of directional change = unit of _intrinsic _ *T*ime

Movement in a column in excess of the Box Size = _ The overshoot_

This defines something important



> The price
> overshoot is of particular interest as it measures the excess price move . It is  used as a market activity quantifier.





Excess price move in relation to ---

Again
Event driven chart
A chart of EVENTS (  _real effective ones_ )

Looks good ?

One of those show it to a _" 7 year old charts_ ? maybe ?

PROBABILITIES 
dyor

Where to from here ?
let's see

motorway


----------



## vxleather (14 April 2012)

*Is SEN just down or on  the way out???*

Have been keeping a eye on SEN for years, Is it a good time to bye at there low at the moment, by comsec site 4 byers and 30 sellers...

Or are they on the way out??

Any thoughts....

Shane


----------



## piggybank (29 August 2013)

Freddy said:


> Their patent on the encryptor granted in Australia only, but that's a start.  Stock moving nicely today.  I bought 80,000 more to average down to $.268.
> 
> Do we see a breakout starting here?




Well 16 months on and they are still with us - if only just!! The stock closed today @ 0.024c which is a 100% rise from it's opening price on Monday. Lets see what tomorrow brings.............


----------



## vxleather (10 September 2013)

Now me be kicking myself for not buying another 5K worth the other week at 1cent.....  well I have got mine down to owing me $0.064 cents. They are sitting around the 2cent mark, with the little knowledge I have the 12months ahead dosnt look to bad for them, I would hope for a positive profit this FIY.


----------



## vxleather (10 September 2013)

Maybe I expexct to much of this share, I really keep my thoughts on it basic. The company remains debt free and has cash on hand at year‐end of $4,091,013. There seems to always be more share quantity wanting to be purchased than what is available, and often seems a more purchases than sellers, and they are also progressing in there certification quest etc etc... maybe I dont look deep enough into a company, maybe I look at it to simply.


----------



## piggybank (29 October 2013)

Well it's still moving in the right direction - unless you are shorting it (if that is possible?)


----------



## vxleather (30 October 2013)

So then up up and away... 

Question 1. what is driving it, 

Question 2. what will stop it,

question 3. Will we see it make highs that allow dividend payment if they return to profitable buisness.


----------



## nomore4s (7 November 2013)

Bit surprised this stock and thread hasn't received more attention. Moving very nicely.


----------



## vxleather (9 November 2013)

just needs $0.01c more movement and I will be a happy man, only taken 9 years...


----------



## David123 (9 November 2013)

vxleather said:


> just needs $0.01c more movement and I will be a happy man, only taken 9 years...




My advice is get to know the tech/a side of the sharemarket that way your not waiting nine years again to make a coin! 

DYOR but i think you will be very happy during the coming week ;-)

All the best


----------



## vxleather (9 November 2013)

David123 said:


> My advice is get to know the tech/a side of the sharemarket that way your not waiting nine years again to make a coin!
> 
> DYOR but i think you will be very happy during the coming week ;-)
> 
> All the best




Currently in the process of reading and reading and learning... and reading and reading... and more learning. Books and forums... etc etc... life experience has also helped, actually it has been one of the most helpful..


----------



## Buckfont (9 November 2013)

I am not very savvy with the tech side of things but looking at the chart from mid august indicates up, up and away. There have been no announcements but my gut feel and looking at various charts helped me decide to pick it for the comp this month. 

If it breaks through 0.06 which it reached last week who knows where it will go. The vol. has been HUGE this week.

Any smarter folk than me to shed light on SEN's performance would be gratefully appreciated.


----------



## piggybank (9 November 2013)

P&F Daily


----------



## pavilion103 (12 November 2013)

This is one in the sub10c thread that we have been discussing. 

Presented a reasonably opportunity at around 2.6c. Since then this has really taken off, closing at a high of 7.1c today. 

This is one that I will be following with interest. 

I have no idea about the fundamentals of this company. 

Is anyone else in this one? If so why? FA or TA?


----------



## piggybank (12 November 2013)

I'm not in it but here is some TA & FA.


----------



## David123 (12 November 2013)

vxleather said:


> Currently in the process of reading and reading and learning... and reading and reading... and more learning. Books and forums... etc etc... life experience has also helped, actually it has been one of the most helpful..




There ya go vxleather, hope ya in profit? ...


Cheers


----------



## Country Lad (13 November 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> Is anyone else in this one? If so why? FA or TA?




pav, have commented on the  over here  in the < 10 cent thread.


----------



## vxleather (13 November 2013)

David123 said:


> There ya go vxleather, hope ya in profit? ...
> 
> 
> Cheers




Yep, I stopped out at .065 this morning, my goal has been achieved.


----------



## Country Lad (13 November 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> Is anyone else in this one?




Not any more but it was good fun while it lasted.


----------



## Buckfont (13 November 2013)

Never was a holder, but picked it cause I saw it had legs to run. Needs more gym work obviously.

How much of an influence on the 1.5% or so drop today influenced the move or would it have happened anyway?


----------



## David123 (13 November 2013)

vxleather said:


> Yep, I stopped out at .065 this morning, my goal has been achieved.





Fantastic work. she dropped like a lead weight after that..


----------



## vxleather (5 November 2014)

Anyone still following this company?


----------



## vxleather (22 January 2015)

Anyone notice the 40 odd % increase is share price yesterday, on profit increase etc...


----------



## pixel (22 January 2015)

vxleather said:


> Anyone notice the 40 odd % increase is share price yesterday, on profit increase etc...




Sure did; but today's Harami tells me it's time to take profit.


----------



## Freddy (9 August 2015)

Senetas has risen from 2 cents to 20 cents over the past couple of months.  I have been watching for many years and hold a swag of their shares.  With computer hacking on the rise I believe their encryptors should be a must for all major enterprises.  What do the chartists see in Senetas?


----------



## peter2 (23 November 2016)

Skimming through my favourites watch list and I see a few old fav's that have been good to me in the old days. 

*SEN* is another company that should be booming. Online security should be a highly desirable service. What are these guys doing? All research with no product? I doubt that.  

I got a bit excited July 16, but nothing's happened since. * SEN* will stay in my reversal and spec watch lists. One day, maybe.


----------



## peter2 (27 April 2017)

Very suspicious price movement yesterday. I looked for news, but there was none.
News of much needed certification is released today. Yesterday's buyers were lucky.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 April 2017)

Hi Peter2,

Wow I didn't know that Senetas was listed! 

There is a free podcast on the internet called Risky Business, it's really popular and very well known amongst "information security" circles (information security is the fancy term for professional hacking stuff, for example if you're a bank and want to hire some hackers to test the security of your systems). It's free because it's sponsored by security companies and Senetas is one of the sponsors and it was their turn this week for the "sponsor interview". During the interview they mentioned they were partnering with an optical fiber company called ADVA and responded pretty well to a grilling on backend technologies they use by the host Patrick Gray.

If you're interested you can listen to the last 15 minutes of the podcast here for the sponsor interview: https://risky.biz/RB452

That might be why the price jumped. We use Senetas at our work, if I had known they were listed I might have bought some shares!


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2019)

I thought Id run a couple in my watch-list in their Threads
SEN is one.
Will follow.


----------



## Ann (11 May 2019)

Tech/a 

Had a look at this one, tend to think it might make a better short candidate as that big volume spike on Thursday looks like it is money moving out according to the Twiggs weekly money flow which appears to have been falling since Friday May 3rd. I checked the notices, nothing so far so maybe the money moving out is inside info.
It appears to be hitting against an overhead resistance line from way back beginning 2015 there is also a falling overhead resistance line coming from Feb 2018. Interesting to see how it goes.


----------



## tech/a (13 May 2019)

Ann You maybe right 

BUT

Not triggered but still interested 
will follow up if anything develops

Triggers or drops out.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

I just looked at thread and was wondering if large volume bar at 2 was extra large volume exhaustion?
and possible continuation down.
if we see low volume up bars or average volume down bars wouldn't that be indication of continuation down?


----------



## Ann (21 May 2019)

Tech/a let's look at SEN again if you are still interested...
SEN is part of the Info Tech sector and the XIJ Info Tech sector chart just keeps going up and is in blue sky territory and has been since around February this year.

I see the Twiggs Weekly Money flow is starting to level off to a degree, the 21dsma has crossed above the 50dsma. There are a lot of overheads it needs to fend off as in the 200dsma, an horizontal overhead resistance coming from 2015 and a falling overhead coming from Feb 2018.
On the plus side it hasn't fallen below a straight line of .075 since we last looked and it is sitting above the 21dsma and may ride up on it through the various overheads on the results of others in the sector.
I feel there are more interesting stocks around to get high on, check out some of the Cannabis stocks!


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## tech/a (21 May 2019)

Nothing has really changed from my view point.
Still a setup but weakening. I still have a buy at .082


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## tech/a (23 May 2019)

Ann

For me SEN has broken down from my technical watch list criteria
so I am no longer following it--if another signal appears then it may
find its way back into a watch list.  Until then---


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## greggles (18 July 2019)

SEN moving north over the last couple of days after announcing that Thales, acquirer of Gemalto, will continue to be Senetas' exclusive global distributor and will continue to distribute the Senetas high-speed network encryption product portfolio, including the virtual network encryptor CV1000 under the brand SafeNet High Speed Encryptor (HSE).

Double bottom at 6c and a nice move through 8c today on solid volume.


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## willoneau (28 July 2019)

Looking like possible leg up.


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## peter2 (19 June 2020)

In light of the news of the "state" based cyber attacks on Aust Gov't Depts and companies, I had a look at our cyber security companies.

SEN: Interesting large volume price spike today with no news.  (TNT also).

Edit: The "cybersecurity" ETF, HACK is just another Nasdaq tech ETF.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 August 2020)

peter2 said:


> In light of the news of the "state" based cyber attacks on Aust Gov't Depts and companies, I had a look at our cyber security companies.
> 
> SEN: Interesting large volume price spike today with no news..



and again. up 20% *today*.
and TNT also. And AR9 some 15%. And WHK up 15%. And VOR some 10%. Perhaps the "relative lack of specialist investors to pick-up on the opportunities being presented" is being addressed by institutional managers just buying the sector?


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## Dona Ferentes (10 August 2020)

six cyber related stocks over the last 3 months
https://finfeed.com/small-caps/technology/recent-cyber-attacks-reveal-opportunities-asx-investors/

https://starinvesting.com.au/the-as...enefit-from-a-156m-cybersecurity-cash-splash/

Senetas SEN ..... (red) ........... 67%
Vortic VOR .... (green/blue) ....... 92%
Houston We Have HWH (magenta) 126%
Whitehawk WHK ... (grey) ........ 300%
Tesserent TNT ...... (blue) ........ 382%
ArchTIS AR9 ...... (green ) .......... 540%


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## finicky (10 August 2020)

Houston We Have (*HWH*) haha, what cards.
Anyone fancy any of these after such rises? Getting a faddish feel about it.  Can't value them.
Thinking of taking some profit for first time today in AR9 to pay back my stake and fund MBK over subscription - cash, an under appreciated financial asset. The daily chart of AR9 makes me uncomfortable.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 August 2020)

finicky said:


> Houston We Have (*HWH*) haha, what cards.
> Anyone fancy any of these after such rises? Getting a faddish feel about it.  Can't value them.
> Thinking of taking some profit for first time today in AR9 to pay back my stake and fund MBK over subscription - cash, an under appreciated financial asset. The daily chart of AR9 makes me uncomfortable.



a lot of catch up being played (by others). Of course they will overshoot. Mmmm.... but if good news comes (contracts, engagement with industry and govt) there may be some more gasps. Not many insto's on these companies' registries.

And it is amazing the difference from 11 months ago: 







> Looking at the Australian stock market, though, you would not know that cyber security is a growth business. The ASX does host cyber security companies, but sadly, it is a desert in terms of investment success. Is this because of the technology offerings being lacking in some way, or the relative lack of specialist investors to pick up on the opportunities being presented, and give them some market support and impetus? That appears to be a big problem....



_- James Dunn_


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## Dona Ferentes (7 September 2020)

Life yet ...up 18%

_SEN has entered into a supplier agreement with Verizon Australia Pty Limited, which will see Verizon distribute Senetas’s certified high-assurance encryptors as part of Verizon’s managed security offerings for its government and enterprise customers_.


> Verizon has provided managed network and security services to Australian government departments and businesses for over 20 years including more than 75 national and state government agencies. Notably, in 2017, Verizon opened a state-of-the-art Asia-Pacific Advanced Security Operations Centre in Canberra. It is also a panellist on the Whole-of Australian-Government Telecommunications Services Panel, providing coordinated telecommunications services.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 February 2021)

SEN market guidance coming through .... up 15%

_• Underlying Senetas business segment revenues expected to be up over 30% 
• Underlying Senetas business EBITDA expected to be up over 170% 
• Consolidated group revenue (including Votiro revenue) expected to be up over 30%  
• Consolidated group EBITDA (including Votiro EBITDA) expected to be up significantly on HY2020 
• Statutory consolidated net profit after tax expected to be in the range of between $0.1million and $0.2 million_.

but will it just be more whip-sawing ?
Earnings (LHS) and Return on Equity (RHS) hardly moving the dial, in previous period.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 February 2021)

or is there hope?

*Votiro *is a world leader in the development of cybersecurity technology to protect governments and other organisations from malware and ransomware. Ransomware is estimated by NASDAQ listed cybersecurity company, CrowdStrike to be 81% of global financial cyber crime in 2020.  CrowdStrike further forecasts that the frequency and risk to government agencies and enterprises world-wide from malware and ransomware will grow significantly in the future.   This risk has increased as a result of COVID-19 bringing forward the move to remote offices as government and enterprises move their applications to the cloud.



> Senetas Chairman Francis Galbally commented: “_The demand for software protection against such threats is now only starting to emerge and Senetas believes this growth will be considerable and will translate into an opportunity to grow a substantial annuity business.”_ Mr Galbally added,_ “the board is pleased that Votiro is achieving the expected results and growth that it targeted when we made our initial investment_.”



Votiro is currently in trials with a number of large North American organisations to deploy its cyber security technology.  In addition, Votiro’s Secure File Gateway has recently been selected by a Fortune 500 company to protect it from malware attacks. This customer has deployed the technology to over 50,000 users, and the revenue to Votiro from this contract is expected to be in the order of approximately USD$250,000 per annum for 3 years.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 February 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> six cyber related stocks over the last 3 months
> Senetas SEN ..... (red) ........... 67%
> Vortic VOR .... (green/blue) ....... 92%
> Houston We Have HWH (magenta) 126%
> ...





and lets see how we are going, 6 months afterwards

WHK .... +130%
TNT ...... +48%
HWH .... + 14%
SEN ....... -6%
AR9 ....... -20% (long rest in naughty corner for 2A breach)
VOR ....... -28% (no longer a player; sold their 2 cyber firms)


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## Go Figure (26 May 2021)

The wide range in the Senetas Product Suite continues to service current customers and ensures continued future growth. The share price performance has been disappointing, the addition of Votiro products will bring about exposure and increase awareness of the quality of products on hand.


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## peter2 (27 May 2021)

I've been watching *SEN* for over a decade now and to say the performance of their share price is disappointing is a gross understatement. It's been terrible. Companies, governments all over the world should be scrambling to ensure their networks are safe. If *SEN* products are so good why haven't customers been beating at the doors over the past ten years? I don't know and must assume that their products are either not good enough or not ready for commercialisation. 

Their 1Gbps didn't excite the market. Their 10Gbps didn't excite the market, now they've progressed to 100Gbps. They even say they've got a quantum resistant network encryption solution. 

The poor performance of the price of *SEN* shares is one of the many mysteries in life I'll never understand.


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## Dona Ferentes (15 June 2021)

peter2 said:


> I've been watching *SEN* for over a decade now...... Companies, governments all over the world should be scrambling to ensure their networks are safe. If *SEN* products are so good why haven't customers been beating at the doors over the past ten years? I don't know and must assume that their products are either not good enough or not ready for commercialisation.



the story continues (it would seem) ....

_Senetas subsidiary, Votiro Cybersec Global Pty Ltd, has successfully raised US$4.6 million in a recent rights issue, with Senetas investing US$4.1million with the balance raised from Votiro’s minority shareholders and associated parties 
• Proceeds from the capital raising are expected to meet Votiro’s funding requirements for sales, marketing and engineering expansion until the end of CY2021  
• Senetas’s recent investment will increase its full diluted ownership of Votiro to approximately 70% _
*• Votiro’s revolutionary technology proactively eliminates all known and unknown threats hidden in files.  Ransomware  !!...*
_• Votiro was recently named a Gold Winner in the Content Disarm and Reconstruction (CDR) category by the 2021 Cybersecurity Excellence Awards and in the Secure File Transfer category by The Globee Awards® 17th Annual 2021 Cyber Security Global Excellence Awards® 
• Outlook for the Votiro business in CY2021 continues to be very positive – the North American market remains Votiro’s key focus, and is expected to contribute over half of its CY2021 billings, with Q2 CY21 seeing the largest level of Proof of Concept (POC) trials in Votiro’s history including the commencement of a POC in one of the US Department of Defence largest Agencies. _



> Founded in Israel, Votiro has developed revolutionary technology recognized for its ability to proactively eliminate all known and unknown threats hidden in files. By leveraging Positive Selection® technology, Votiro’s Secure File Gateway is the only SaaS-based file security solution that ensures *all *files coming into an enterprise are safe from malware threats and particularly ransomware.



... a bold claim


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## Go Figure (31 July 2021)

Seneta’s addition of Votiro and it’s products should present a healthier looking Profit & Loss, Balance Sheet for financial year ended 2021. 
Long time patient shareholders of this stock are due for some rewards, this reporting season should hopefully bring some positive outlooks. I have made Senetas my August Competition tip.


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## Dona Ferentes (3 May 2022)

Trading Halt for a capital raising.

Serial underperformer, to date


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## greggles (27 October 2022)

Substantial turnaround this month. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) of Votiro business was up 83% in FY2022 and new customer pipeline has grown by over 60% since July 2022.

Is there hope for this old dog?


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