# SMY - Sally Malay Mining



## BraceFace (2 November 2005)

Has the steam completely run out of the Nickel Sector!? Over the last 12 months Nickel companies like Jubilee and Sally Malay have done OK, but it seems that SMY in particular has experienced quite a significant downturn in recent times. Is this a reflection of world Nickel prices or is there something else going on here? At 64c SMY seems like pretty good value to me. Any takers?


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## markrmau (2 November 2005)

*Re: Sally Malay SMY*

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html

Looks like nickel is in abundance. 

Zinc and Aluminium are my favourite metals for now.

Zinc stocks seem pretty fully priced but I will be buying AWC in dips (my opinion only, not fin advice etc.)


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## BraceFace (24 January 2006)

*Re: Sally Malay SMY*

SMY has surged up 8.5% on a day when the market was down pretty much across the board. Closed at 83c. Is some sort of a breakout forming?
I hope so. I have been sitting on this one very patiently for some time, waiting for a move in the Nickel sector.
No announcements today so perhaps the market is bullish on Nickel?

Maybe someone more clever than I can post a chart/analysis


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## brerwallabi (26 January 2006)

*Re: Sally Malay SMY*



			
				BraceFace said:
			
		

> SMY has surged up 8.5% on a day when the market was down pretty much across the board. Closed at 83c. Is some sort of a breakout forming?
> I hope so. I have been sitting on this one very patiently for some time, waiting for a move in the Nickel sector.
> No announcements today so perhaps the market is bullish on Nickel?
> 
> Maybe someone more clever than I can post a chart/analysis




Does look good after 90cents $1.05 next barrier, the chart looks interesting when viewed from January 2003 to current as well.


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## GreatPig (26 January 2006)

I'm only a novice at this Elliot Wave thing, but it looks to me like it could also be into a new wave one.

Cheers,
GP


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## brerwallabi (26 January 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> I'm only a novice at this Elliot Wave thing, but it looks to me like it could also be into a new wave one.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP



Thats precisely what I was looking at too.


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## Nick Radge (27 January 2006)

Looks good to me too. According to page 109, one should be long at $0.74






_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


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## BraceFace (28 January 2006)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Looks good to me too. According to page 109, one should be long at $0.74





Sorry Nick, can you please explain exactly what you mean by this?


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## Nick Radge (28 January 2006)

On page 109 of my book I discuss a trading system that is useful for active investors. That is, it holds poistions for 12 - 24 months and utilises a specific stop point, unlike buy and hold. SMY recently came up as a buy on that system and was recommended by me at $0.73. Others that have come up are listed below. Whilst no trading system will be 100% accurate this will provide a high risk/reward equation for those that do not wish to be bothered looking at prices every day.


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## BraceFace (28 January 2006)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> That is, it holds poistions for 12 - 24 months and utilises a specific stop point




Thanks Nick, seems fair enough.
Does this mean your exit point is determined by a predetermined time interval and not the actual share price?
If you have a exit point based on share price (assuming positive price movement) what would it be?
Appreciate the shared knowledge


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## brerwallabi (29 January 2006)

The factors to consider in SMY are a huge significant step up in production over the next two years, if all according to their plan happens on time, then the ramp up will occur commence over the next 4 to 6 weeks. SMY has been unfancied for a while now because of the word DEBT. Management intention is reduce this debt to a level of $20mil from $40mil by this financial year end, they have also declared that this will allow a maiden dividend to be paid December 2006 if all works out.
The dumping of their shares by the impatient shareholders Roche and Mineral Securities is now over, with mining there is always a risk factor and Roche and MS it seems were fed up with delays at the Lafranchi operation. SMY has been lagging lately but may suprise very shortly.


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## Nick Radge (29 January 2006)

BraceFace,
The exit point for this particular systematic approach is the old high. However, this is the start of a potential large wave-(3) which, if correct, will take prices well beyond those highs.

Nick


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## BraceFace (12 April 2006)

Well done to everyone who bought into SMY earlier this year when it was floundering in the 70-80c range.
I'm pleased to say I hung in there and have recently sold out after some very positive news last week.
Now sitting above $1.10.

This one always seems to pull back in weeks/months after positive news.
Keep and eye on it and buy back in sub $1.00 I reckon.


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## crackaton (12 April 2006)

BraceFace said:
			
		

> Well done to everyone who bought into SMY earlier this year when it was floundering in the 70-80c range.
> I'm pleased to say I hung in there and have recently sold out after some very positive news last week.
> Now sitting above $1.10.
> 
> ...



Brace I've had these for some years, around .54, not many but am happy. I know I should have traded but with this i have been lazy. Might sell when it goes to 1.50$


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## rederob (12 April 2006)

crackaton said:
			
		

> Brace I've had these for some years, around .54, not many but am happy. I know I should have traded but with this i have been lazy. Might sell when it goes to 1.50$



You might not sell when you see the company dividend policy, plus its capacity to pay dividends based on its outperformance against pro-forma.
This is a $2 stock in waiting, and will only fall short if the @rse falls out of world markets.
SMY's best results are yet to come as it has not reached full production, plus its copper/cobalt byproduct sales are now significant earners in their own rights.


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## brerwallabi (13 April 2006)

BraceFace said:
			
		

> Well done to everyone who bought into SMY earlier this year when it was floundering in the 70-80c range.
> I'm pleased to say I hung in there and have recently sold out after some very positive news last week.
> Now sitting above $1.10.
> 
> ...



Oh why, I guess we all like to take a profit and there is nothing wrong with that
but I know where my stop is. I am prepared to give SMY a few more months possibly yet.


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## BraceFace (13 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Oh why, I guess we all like to take a profit and there is nothing wrong with that
> but I know where my stop is. I am prepared to give SMY a few more months possibly yet.




You are right BW, there is more potential upside in this one.
I needed to take a profit, but I fully expect to buy back in at some stage.
I have my eyes on other companies  at the moment and I am please to take the money and run.


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## sunboy (24 April 2006)

Last week we reached a new alltime high are we are going on. Next target is 1,80 $. The profit is high and there ´s no better chance for nickel fans. If you search for a top gold stock, take Barbara Mining.


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## Nick Radge (24 April 2006)

We exited 1/2 at $1.14 as per the plan. The remaining balance is left to run with the current trailing stop at $1.11.


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## GreatPig (24 April 2006)

Unfortunately I exited a while ago as part of my selling down before going on holiday, and haven't bought back in.

Still I can't complain, as what I kept and have bought since returning is going okay too.

Cheers,
GP


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## brerwallabi (24 April 2006)

Still holding, I feel it still has some way to go after the nickel comeback and we have a lot of troublesome nickel producers currently. For those who want exposure to the upside in nickel this may be the one.


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## rederob (26 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Still holding, I feel it still has some way to go after the nickel comeback and we have a lot of troublesome nickel producers currently. For those who want exposure to the upside in nickel this may be the one.



Ummmm
What does understatement mean?

Ni prices over $20k/tonne and rising.
Looking at NI @ $25k/t given every other base metal has had its day in the sun and that does not even represent parity.
If so, then we are looking at SMY at a conservative $2/share by year's end.
Any bets against me?


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## rub92me (26 April 2006)

Just sold some of my holdings - couldn't resist after buying at 0.67   
Still remain positive that there is some wind left in this one...


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## rederob (26 April 2006)

rub92me said:
			
		

> Just sold some of my holdings - couldn't resist after buying at 0.67
> Still remain positive that there is some wind left in this one...



Never regret taking a profit, especially as you did well.
And don't kick yourself in a few weeks if the stock goes into orbit: You did what was best for you today...and who knows what tomorrow brings, anyway.
I have added to my SMY holdings on at least 5 occasions over the past 3 years, and my average price is around 80cents.  But I believe the real upside will occur next year when it will start to pay dividends as part of its declared policy.  If present nickel prices hold, then the divs will be generous (I don't think we will see $20,000/tonne holding for too long, but I reckon a ceiling around $17,000 is building).
Well done rub92me!


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## brerwallabi (26 April 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Ummmm
> What does understatement mean?
> 
> Ni prices over $20k/tonne and rising.
> ...




It means the $2 that you are looking for by years ends might be a lot sooner then when you might expect.


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## rub92me (27 April 2006)

Thanks rederob. It's heading south today so I guess I wasn't the only one taking some profit. Quietly sitting on the rest: long may the run continue into the $2 range..


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## sunboy (28 April 2006)

I guess will reach 2$  next week, the stock is still cheap and has a lot of power.There is no resistance in the chart. Get it!!


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## rub92me (11 May 2006)

In a trading halt this morning. Sitting on some good news hopefully that's going to lift it again?


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## stockmaster (12 July 2006)

*SMY - SALLY MALAY MINING LIMITED*

Company Overview
Sally Malay Mining Limited (SMY) is a nickel sulphide producer as well as an exploration company searching for copper, nickel and cobalt. SMY's key project is the Sally Malay nickel-copper-cobalt project, located in the Kimberley Region of Western Australia. 

Differentiating Factor
The company has two projects currently in production: the Sally Malay Project and the Lanfranchi JV and has become a significant player in the Australian nickel sulphide mining industry. The nickel sulphide orebody at Sally Malay contains 3.74 million tonnes of ore grading 1.74% Ni, 0.72% Cu ands 0.09% Co. 

The announcement confirmed the high grade at Lanfranchi
"27-Jun-06 12:14  	SMY 	High Grade Intersections at Lanfranchi"

On top of the nickel rally from yesterday, there is a high potential that it will  continue to rise and may maintain for the next few days.


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## stockmaster (12 July 2006)

There has been a 33% increase in nickel discovery for SMY, price of nickel are in a hot running for the past week, i believe this will help the price even more after a 15% increase today.


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## stockmaster (13 July 2006)

It has been a strong day for SMY, up by 12.5% at the close of the day , touch a high of 1.39. However i believe the bull run is not over yet, there is still a high potential left for few days, esp for tomorrow. The rally follow after an announcment of "significant resource upgrade at Lanfranchi-33& more Nickel"

"The Upgraded Winner resource of 110,500t at 5.56% Ni for 6100 Ni is a 33% increase on previous resource." On top of that it also included 0.46% of Cu. 

Also nickel price has surged for the 12th consecutive times due to the restriction in supply and rise of 25% from china for the use of stainless steel. "Nickel prices have shot higher in the past month, gaining 45 percent, as funds and consumers have bought on supply fears." 

Both facts shall support the rise in SMY, there shall be another good day for SMY tomorrow and with an approximately 12% increase in the opening price.


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## rederob (13 July 2006)

Just remember that nickel prices dropped slightly overnight, so don't expect a miracle every day.


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## brerwallabi (20 August 2006)

Sally Malay looks all set for another run. With the price of nickle where it is and the continuation of lack of supply, I think we could see SMY touch a $1.40 again.(it could spike higher)
I hold this stock and state that you should DYOR.


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## BraceFace (22 August 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Sally Malay looks all set for another run. With the price of nickle where it is and the continuation of lack of supply, I think we could see SMY touch a $1.40 again.(it could spike higher)
> I hold this stock and state that you should DYOR.





Nice graphic. I have traded this one a few times, and have been holding out to get back in at sub $1.00. Unless things really turn pear-shaped, doesn't look like that will happen. Maybe 1.20 is a good buy after all.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 August 2006)

BraceFace said:
			
		

> Nice graphic. I have traded this one a few times, and have been holding out to get back in at sub $1.00. Unless things really turn pear-shaped, doesn't look like that will happen. Maybe 1.20 is a good buy after all.




Got in and out of these a few times since May. I have only had an entry into these guys at $1.15 (lowest), when did you squeeze out a dollar entry?

Been waiting for the last week for the usual entry price but resorted to  15000 of these this arvo at $1.23. I was hopin to get back in again at $1.18, ur dreamin at a $1.00 entry.

Nickel stockpiles are suffering at the moment, SMY has had a few upgrades of its deposit and is quite an efficient low cost operator.

This is only my opinion.

PS just read the previous posts, sorry I'm just rehashing them.


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## Prospector (23 August 2006)

I have held SMY for some time (entry round 75cents), but in a cleanup a few months ago I sold out.  Of course that was the trigger for the latest run.  If i do get back in again, and the price falls, sorry guys - my fault!

Freeball - love the name but coming from a surfing family, probably TMI :   I have visions of zips.......


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 August 2006)

Prospector said:
			
		

> I have held SMY for some time (entry round 75cents), but in a cleanup a few months ago I sold out.  Of course that was the trigger for the latest run.  If i do get back in again, and the price falls, sorry guys - my fault!
> 
> Freeball - love the name but coming from a surfing family, probably TMI :   I have visions of zips.......




lol, Zips are on the back, mine dosent quite reach that far (so i'm safe).

SMY has a couple of large sell parcels up today.


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## Kipp (23 August 2006)

I have long held MCR in higher regard than SMY (though I've sold out now) primariliy due to hitting (even exceeding) production forecasts & better track record (they've been around for a few more years) but I can't fathom why SMY isn't going crazy with Ni at $15/lb   

My (very limited) understanding is that SMY is suffering a little bit because production for 06 was 7,500t vs a forecast of 8,500t.  But even so they are 90% unhedged so they're making squillions I'd imagine... 
The othe Nickel boys are having a good time (even MRE).. it's weird sort of like CBH vs. the other Zinc producers.


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## porkpie324 (23 August 2006)

i agree with kipp i'm a long term mcr holder, another of my nickel favorites is igo, porkpie


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## rederob (23 August 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> My (very limited) understanding is that SMY is suffering a little bit because production for 06 was 7,500t vs a forecast of 8,500t.  But even so they are *90% unhedged * so they're making squillions I'd imagine...
> The othe Nickel boys are having a good time (even MRE).. it's weird sort of like CBH vs. the other Zinc producers.



SMY is 60% hedged at an average US$5.18/lb to May 2008.
Their managers are not too bright given the spot price is currently 200% higher.
How about this for one of the silliest hedging policies you would read about during a boom in prices:


> The Company has continued to deliver into its hedge book during the quarter. In May, the Board approved an active Hedging Policy allowing additional nickel hedging to a maximum 24 month forward horizon on up to 50% of payable contained nickel metal provided the forward nickel price  achieved, when matched with US$ forward currency contracts, is A$8/lb or better.



I hold SMY and am selling it down to replace it with MRE which is totally unhedged.


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## rub92me (24 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> SMY is 60% hedged at an average US$5.18/lb to May 2008.
> Their managers are not too bright given the spot price is currently 200% higher.



Well, that's still 40% unhedged. Risk averse, sure, but also reassuring for investors with a longer term view.


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## dubiousinfo (24 August 2006)

rub92me said:
			
		

> Well, that's still 40% unhedged. Risk averse, sure, but also reassuring for investors with a longer term view.





Any drop in production would make things mighty ugly for them.


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## porkpie324 (4 September 2006)

have been buying smy last week on tue,wed, thur. have been lagging other nickel producers of late, good rise last last fri on heavy vol, also looking good today, any other takers. porkpie


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (4 September 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> have been buying smy last week on tue,wed, thur. have been lagging other nickel producers of late, good rise last last fri on heavy vol, also looking good today, any other takers. porkpie




Thursday, and Friday, all I could get my hands on Friday Morning


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## stiger (10 September 2006)

sally malay has nice ring to it.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (10 September 2006)

stiger said:
			
		

> sally malay has nice ring to it.




Sounds like an Asian prostitute, should go up & not down though!


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## rederob (10 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Sounds like an Asian prostitute, should go up & not down though!



Wrong gender, wrong ethnic origin and wrong occupation.



> Sally Malay was an Aboriginal/Afghan stockman born under a bough shed at Sally Malay bore, about 12 kilometres from the proposed mine site, on the 24 December 1924. His mother Juno was on holiday from Bedford Downs Station and she had been walking in the area of Greenvale Station, now part of Violet Valley.
> 
> Sally was named after his father Sallay Mahomet, an Afghan cameleer and hawker who travelled between Wyndham and various East Kimberley and Northern Territory stations. He traded with the Lee Tongs, an old Chinese family in Wyndham whose store still stands on the main road to the Wyndham port. Sallay used the area near Fletcher Creek as a depot when he was passing through. He was a friend of Joe Bridge’s who owned Mabel Downs Station at the time, the station on which the Sally Malay orebody is located.




Lucky there is no "3-strikes" rule!


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (10 September 2006)

lol


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## porkpie324 (11 September 2006)

rererob, thanks mate for the history lesson, as long as Sallay Mahomet not related to Bin Ladin i,ll hold these for a bit longer, (picked up a few more this morning). porkpie


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## petee (11 September 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> rererob, thanks mate for the history lesson, as long as Sallay Mahomet not related to Bin Ladin i,ll hold these for a bit longer, (picked up a few more this morning). porkpie



born under a stockshed and was in flight 93 looking for investors in the twin towers


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## porkpie324 (13 September 2006)

seems to be weakness in SMY, inspite of a good exploration an recently, looking at the quotes the support has dropped off too. porkpie


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (13 September 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> seems to be weakness in SMY, inspite of a good exploration an recently, looking at the quotes the support has dropped off too. porkpie




I still like them porkpie324, happy to be a holder.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (5 October 2006)

If SMY goes through $1.32 with volume they might grow some legs and start running.

Their has been some money made on this one in the last few weeks and after the big volume day last week it looks like the consolidation of the past few days might be leading to some movement soon IMHO.


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## porkpie324 (5 October 2006)

yes has been a nice earner, sold SMY CFD long pos's last Friday. Picked up somemore during yesterdays selloff and have just closed out. porkpie


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## rub92me (6 October 2006)

On 14 September they announced that drill results were 'imminent' from several projects. Could be ominous rather than imminent since we haven't heard since? (Or too good to be true so they're double checking...   ).


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (7 October 2006)

Did  grow a few legs on Friday.Not quite running, but a fast walk!
Well extended though and probably only another day before the profit takers kick in.
Passed a key resistance point though, might defy momentum and keep going.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (9 October 2006)

Still going!.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (10 October 2006)

Yep, its running


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## rub92me (10 October 2006)

Excellent! Some more good exploration news. Let's see if it can break the 1.60 barrier and keep going. I'm holding on for now..


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## mlennox (10 October 2006)

FOR ALL YOU SMY & CFD DOUBTERS!!!

Bought 6,000 SMY:xasx CFDs @ 1.2356
Sold 6,000 SMY:xasx CFDs @ 1.6800

Profit - $2,636

Whose laughing now!


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (10 October 2006)

mlennox said:
			
		

> FOR ALL YOU SMY & CFD DOUBTERS!!!
> 
> Bought 6,000 SMY:xasx CFDs @ 1.2356
> Sold 6,000 SMY:xasx CFDs @ 1.6800
> ...




6000 SMY LOL.


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## mlennox (12 October 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> 6000 SMY LOL.




sorry i don't see you quoting how many you own ?


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## porkpie324 (12 October 2006)

yes me to been using CFDs for SMY, but not as profitable, I closed earlier. porkpie


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## alankew (30 October 2006)

anyone any news on SMY-says call on IG,is it in a trading halt


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## porkpie324 (30 October 2006)

The only a/n that I can see is quartily report.porkpie


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## alankew (30 October 2006)

Thanks for replying-not sure what it was but it is now a bit lower


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## porkpie324 (30 October 2006)

Yes but looks like good uderlying support at 1.75 / 1.76, I'm looking at a CFD trade at 1.76. porkpie


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## rub92me (31 October 2006)

Cleared its all time high today. Still holding and still smiling! :


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## porkpie324 (31 October 2006)

SMY was much stronger than its peers today, not sure why the quartely was good but not any more than other nickel miners. Closed my CFD trade today. porkpie


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 November 2006)

The banks initially seemed to have a bit of say in SMY's hedging and general exploration process considering the debt funding during their jump into mining and not just an exploration play.

SMY'S management seem to be growing a few balls and eating into their hedge book. Once they have cleared their debt facility and hedge book, their exploration targets will probably already have commenced mining and their tonnage rate should be considerable.

Although the current SP has enjoyed a great run, I think theirs lots more room to move on the Horizon and SMY is on its way from a fairly speculative producer to a decent midcap one with a bit of history behind it.

SMY is a lot like KZL in its early days, good management and sound exploration direction should see its market cap at least double in a year IMHO ( If Nickle holds up!)..


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## tech/a (1 November 2006)

Bought this today at $1.945.

From a technical breakout will post some analysis later if anyone interested.


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## Sean K (1 November 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Bought this today at $1.945.
> 
> From a technical breakout will post some analysis later if anyone interested.




Courageous. 

I've not the guts to jump on board Zinc now, even if there's none in the warehouse! 

I know the believers will tell me there's still time.....


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## CanOz (1 November 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Bought this today at $1.945.
> 
> From a technical breakout will post some analysis later if anyone interested.




I'm very interest T/A.....and i'm thinking you might say something about the price action in relation to supply and demand...? 

Looking forward to your analysis.

Cheers,


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## Caliente (30 November 2006)

sally rears her head over $2 again.  welcome back baby ^_-


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## chops_a_must (30 November 2006)

Has some good things going on with PLA up north. Should be going well from about March onwards when pre-feasibility comes out I think.


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## rub92me (1 December 2006)

Tech/a are you still on this? Looks like it is having another run after it came close to my stop at 1.55 a couple of weeks ago.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 December 2006)

First of the Nicklers to hit highs since the pullback  . Nice effort the last week and a half.


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## Caliente (1 December 2006)

Sally Malay is a gem. A run at the start of next week would not be off the cards either. 

Best of luck to all holders
-Caliente


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## rub92me (1 December 2006)

Whoa, Sally    an all time high 2.25 close. Likely to pull back a bit with profit taking next week. I won't be one of them though.


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## porkpie324 (1 December 2006)

I took profits today on my CFD pos's a nice earner opened on 14,15,16,17, & 20 Nov, closed the lot today, Also closed MCR pos. But still have some physical shares in both.
  Just have to wait know for a pull back. porkpie


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## Caliente (6 December 2006)

Lanfranchi Project – Deacon Zone– Additional Resource Potential

From todays announcement...

Drilling to test the true thickness and extent of the newly discovered Deacon mineralised zone has commenced

• Results for first two holes in this programme are 11m at 2.25% Ni and 17.1m at 4.12% Ni

Definitely economic grades, but underground,

Just out of interest, what is the approximate relative cost difference between mining open cut nickel and underground? (i.e. twice or three times as expensive?)


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## rederob (6 December 2006)

Caliente said:
			
		

> Just out of interest, what is the approximate relative cost difference between mining open cut nickel and underground? (i.e. twice or three times as expensive?)



There may be none!
And, it depends on many things.
High strip ratios can determine where (at what depth) mining underground becomes cheaper than open cut.
Where narrow, high value mineral veins exist, mining underground can be immediately cheaper than an open cut option.
As "cut-off" grades become economic due to rising metal prices, what may have been an underground mine could change into an open cut mine until the new cut-off grades are mined out.


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## jet328 (8 January 2007)

Anyone got an idea why SMY has taken a 9% hit this morning?

Cheers


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## porkpie324 (8 January 2007)

What ever it is it's on big vol, all nickel miners are down today but SMY seems to be hit harder than others.porkpie


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (8 January 2007)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> What ever it is it's on big vol, all nickel miners are down today but SMY seems to be hit harder than others.porkpie




What are you talking about Porkpie. SMY has shown the greatest SP strength of the midcap Nicklers in recent weeks, the only one to hit blue sky, albeit on low volumes.

A hard hit Today and Friday for SMY was overdue considering the share prices of its peers. Further weakness could be expected from SMY to bring it in line withe MCR/MRE and the like as it is overpriced, comparitively!.

I recently sold out of SMY and will follow it closely. Re-entered MRE and MCR today  


Cheers.


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## porkpie324 (9 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> What are you talking about Porkpie. SMY has shown the greatest SP strength of the midcap Nicklers in recent weeks, the only one to hit blue sky, albeit on low volumes.




Freeballer, I was talking about today (yesterday now) also down today more in percentage than its peers, still like you I have been accumulating during this selloff, also buying MCR. porkpie


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## mick2006 (12 January 2007)

With the cash nickel price now over US $16lb, some of the junior nickel miners such as SMY, MCR are starting to look well priced once again.  Picked up some SMY over the last couple of days, production rising to 12,500 tonnes this year and 18,500 which is larger than JBM forecasts.  Also expecting drilling results from the Deacon exploration which produced stunning first off results with hits of 111 m at 2.9% and 91 m at 2.3%.  The drilling results are expected to increase reserves at the Lanfranchi mine by at least 15000 tonnes or over $600 million at todays nickel prices.

With the upcoming release of the drill results, which could lead to a re-rating of the stock currently trading at a p/e of around 4 for 06/07 financial year so certainly not expensive.

Does anyone hold currently and what are your short term thoughts on this one?


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## porkpie324 (12 January 2007)

Mick, I picked up some on Mon & Tues, although yesrerday I was concerned on further weakness with nickel going up overnight, today seems better, (also did the same on MCR & IGO), IGO have been sold off heavily over the last 6 weeks)
 Where are they going short term, hopefully up towards the $2 :40 mark, there seems to be some new year blues with most miners at the moment. porkpie


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## rub92me (12 January 2007)

mick2006 said:
			
		

> Does anyone hold currently and what are your short term thoughts on this one?



Short term it looks like it found support around 2.00, so I've moved my stop for part of my holdings to just below that level. So far they have delivered on their promises and are reducing the hedgebook. Longer term future also looks good so I'll continue to hold, as long as Nickel doesn't get too fickle...


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## porkpie324 (17 January 2007)

I have noticed with SMY and other nickel miners have been reasonably well supported then around 4:15 the buy quotes seem to disappear this has been going on since the new year, although looking at the quotes now 4:30 some support has re-emerged today, is it me or anyone else noticed? porkpie


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## porkpie324 (18 January 2007)

Closed my SMY open positions, some late yesterday rest this morning. They're looking a bit toppy today, thought they might get to 2:40, sold most at 2.34. Still a nice earner. porkpie


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## mlennox (23 January 2007)

wowser drill results!

• Best intersections at Deacon include 30.5m at 4.5% Ni and 32.85m at 3.88% Ni
• Two zones of massive sulphide returned high tenure nickel grades of 3.6m at 10.4% Ni and 5.05m at 9.68% Ni
• Maximum estimated true thickness of intersections is 30 metres
• Latest results provide further confidence that Deacon is a significant zone of Ni mineralisation with the potential to significantly increase the Lanfranchi nickel resource inventory

this things going to fly!


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> The banks initially seemed to have a bit of say in SMY's hedging and general exploration process considering the debt funding during their jump into mining and not just an exploration play.
> 
> SMY'S management seem to be growing a few balls and eating into their hedge book. Once they have cleared their debt facility and hedge book, their exploration targets will probably already have commenced mining and their tonnage rate should be considerable.
> 
> ...




SMY have shown some great strength in recent weeks, in fact they've had a great year and particularly since September. 
Reaching a profit target ATM if youre trading them, if youre holding them as a long term investment I cant see any reason to offload as 07 should be a bumper.

$2.40ish should now provide support but if Nickel holds up, SMY's SP certainly has room to move.


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## rub92me (23 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Reaching a profit target ATM if youre trading them, if youre holding them as a long term investment I cant see any reason to offload as 07 should be a bumper.



 I'm sooo tempted to take some profit now. But I won't. I've shut down my broker website until close today..


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## Halba (23 January 2007)

wow is all i can say. this is the best drill results i have seen for a long time.


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## michael_selway (23 January 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> wow is all i can say. this is the best drill results i have seen for a long time.




Hi

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 12.1 35.4 54.8 58.9 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * 

not bad

thx

MS


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## chops_a_must (23 January 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> wow is all i can say. this is the best drill results i have seen for a long time.



Anyone prepared to put a value on this one?

Already have a fair amount of nickel but just interested.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (24 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Anyone prepared to put a value on this one?
> 
> Already have a fair amount of nickel but just interested.





EPS: MRE and MCR top SMY. SMY comes up trumps for future exploration and potential for increased tonnages with MCR a close second. 
MRE has a long mine life and is laterite with their leach plant still uneasy in many an investors minds. IGO's EPS represents a premium to MCR and SMY and their mine life and exploration targets are inferior in my opinion, still decent earnings though.

SMY has always been my choice of the midcap Nicklers, but they have just about aproached fair value in my opinion. I was hoping for a $3.00 dollar SP before June and their just about their. My fundamental holdings in them are past CGT so will be considering selling them in the not to distant future, will still trade them though.

All of them track Nickle spot to an extent with MRE the most reliant on spot and not quite the market darling, still hard to shake the 'annaconda sting',  .

SMY has always been my favorite so if you were going to hold only one Nickler, that would be my choice but they are pretty fairly valued ATM


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## porkpie324 (24 January 2007)

Interesting comparasion Freeballer, if what you say is representive of the market, thats why SMY is tops followed by MCR with IGO lagging. porkpie


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (30 January 2007)

Yep it was on the cards, woosh


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## Halba (30 January 2007)

I reckon 30,000t nickel discovery at deacon

Production for smy is rising

9000 to 12000 to 18000 to 20000-22000 in the next 4 yrs

Even if nickel price falls eps will  stay around the 60c-70c range, an attractive 4.5 times earnings

This is why exploration hits impact on SMY the most, it stands to benefit the most as is highly leveraged to exploration success (as it impacts on their forward production profile)


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (30 January 2007)

This is my read on SMY ATM, should help a few punters. Both SMY and MCR have had a stellar 06, well run companies!.


*SMY 07 Profile:*

Sally Malay Mine: This has at least another 10 years in general terms. 
SMY have found additional ore in the upper sections of Sally Malay in the east and the western zones, adding a few more years. 
As such, The Sally Mallay ‘deposit’ would appear to have another four to five years
minimum mine life not including the Sally Malay Deeps. 
SMY have been mining this ripper for two years and always find more ore to increase the reserves.

IMHO Corpenicus will be the next one to come on line for SMY, its close proximity to Sally Malay’s plant makes ramp up easy

Corpenicus: SMY could be in a position to start pre-strip in the next dry
season and get into production in the second half of 2007. It’s a tight schedule,
but it is possible. That could mean first ore into the Sally Malay mill by the
September quarter 2007.

SMY Tonnages: SMY should  produce close to 12,500 tonnes of Nickel IC and ore in 06/07.
With Winner  coming online around Sep 07. that should take Lanfranchi
up to a rate exceeding 7,500 tonnes of contained nickel per annum. 
If Corpenicus comes online (ML’s approved)  SMY should nudge past 16,000 tn of Nickle IC  , in 07/08


I agree that recent Deakin results were a positive but SMY for the most part come up trumps on exploration plays.


As for the reason for their recent share price rise, insto’s are taking positions and most of the profit takers from recent months are probably out….simple. SMY’s forward earnings/Management performance/Exploration plays have been known for some time, as has Nickle’s tightness as a commodity.


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## porkpie324 (30 January 2007)

Good analysis freeballer, and look at the price action today, JBM & MRE down, IGO,MCR&SMY up. My IGO positions looking good all long at about $3.80. porkpie


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## rub92me (14 February 2007)

SMY has consolidated nicely above $3 in the past 2 weeks, with an all time high close today. Recent Deakin drill results were again excellent. These guys haven't put a foot wrong in the past 12 months, and with continuing strong nickel prices  I think there is significant further upside in the next couple of years.


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## michael_selway (14 February 2007)

rub92me said:
			
		

> SMY has consolidated nicely above $3 in the past 2 weeks, with an all time high close today. Recent Deakin drill results were again excellent. These guys haven't put a foot wrong in the past 12 months, and with continuing strong nickel prices  I think there is significant further upside in the next couple of years.




yeah not bad

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 31.5 9.9 159.9% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 65.8 4.8 108.9% * 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 12.1 31.5 65.8 58.8 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * 

thx

MS


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## Seneca60BC (24 February 2007)

Went past $4 - good buy still?


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## Halba (25 February 2007)

Deacon looks awesome. Look at the widths and grade of mineralisation. 

Somebody is talking $4.50 plus.

SMY mineral discovery of the yr?


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (4 April 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> This is my read on SMY ATM, should help a few punters. Both SMY and MCR have had a stellar 06, well run companies!.
> 
> 
> *SMY 07 Profile:*
> ...




SMY look like trumping the previous Septembers forecast.

*SMY announcement just out Winner resource upgraded, IC upped 13 percent (online August)*

SMY are a forward production cash cow, 07/08 will see thier production exceed the likes of MCR and IGO by 30 percent odd.........and some dividends


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## prophet174 (10 April 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> SMY look like trumping the previous Septembers forecast.
> 
> *SMY announcement just out Winner resource upgraded, IC upped 13 percent (online August)*
> 
> SMY are a forward production cash cow, 07/08 will see thier production exceed the likes of MCR and IGO by 30 percent odd.........and some dividends





Great run today...looks like everyone read your post over easter...


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (16 April 2007)

Deakin upgraded again, 60k NI/2.4B in ground value! 

If Corpicenus comes online in 07 should see full capacity of 950k through the mill at Sally Mallay

Lanfranchi uses the Kambalda (BHP) Concentrator so recent Deakin resource upgrades present no SMY mill pressures.

Thats not to mention resource upgrades at Winner and Helmut and first ore out of Winner in August.

SMY have an outstanding forward production profile and have easily now surpassed MCR, JBM and IGO on mine life and aren't far off Lion Ore none are even close to the NI production levels of SMY for 07/08.




Deakin Announcement Link
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070416/pdf/00711549.pdf


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## chops_a_must (16 April 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Deakin upgraded again, 60k NI/2.4B in ground value!
> 
> If Corpicenus comes online in 07 should see full capacity of 950k through the mill at Sally Mallay
> 
> ...




I can't understand how you could even say that something like AGM is even in the same league as SMY. These results are crazy stuff...


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## chris1983 (16 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I can't understand how you could even say that something like AGM is even in the same league as SMY. These results are crazy stuff...






AGM contains 158,000 tonnes Ni in resources. This will increase and is all in very close proximity to their mine.  Operating costs are a lot cheaper in Tasmania than WA also.  Their inground value for AGM is a lot larger than SMY.  Yes SMY are producing right now but what happens when AGM starts producing?  They will overtake SMY.  Thats my guess.

_"Allegiance Mining has made a significant nickel sulphide discovery at Avebury located 8km west of Zeehan on Tasmania's mineral rich West Coast. The mineralisation is essentially remobilised pentlandite and is of simple metallurgy, producing the world's highest grade nickel sulphide concentrate."_


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## chops_a_must (16 April 2007)

Ah yeah.

Well, if you can see the links between Poseidon and AGM, and still see nothing, then good luck to you.

Like I said in the AGM thread, SMY will be producing at around 20,000 tonnes P/A. That is about 3 times the amount that AGM will be doing. You need to do the figures based on that. If we valued every company on in ground resource rather than production, we would have a very strange market.


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## chris1983 (16 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Ah yeah.
> 
> Well, if you can see the links between Poseidon and AGM, and still see nothing, then good luck to you.
> 
> Like I said in the AGM thread, SMY will be producing at around 20,000 tonnes P/A. That is about 3 times the amount that AGM will be doing. You need to do the figures based on that. If we valued every company on in ground resource rather than production, we would have a very strange market.




AGM's is onsold   Whats to stop AGM from ramping up production further if their resource continues to grow.  We will let this rest for the time being..but we will monitor market caps and see what happens.


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## chops_a_must (16 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> AGM's is onsold   Whats to stop AGM from ramping up production further if their resource continues to grow.  We will let this rest for the time being..but we will monitor market caps and see what happens.



See, I don't think their resources are as good as speculated on. I'm confused as to how you can do calculations on figures in excess of 158,000 tonnes etc when their resource is actually DECREASING. Any valuations at this stage should only be taking into account the 38,900t of contained nickel. Especially as sulphide ores normally are only viable above 6% let alone below 1.

And what's this? Tony Howland-Rose playing around with results again? NEVER!!!! Where have I heard this before!



> However, Allegiance said that due to its adoption of "more stringent resource classification procedures", some of the resources at Avebury that were previously included in the indicated category had been reclassified as inferred resources.
> 
> This brings its ore reserves at the mine to 38,900t contained nickel in 3.35Mt of ore at 1.16% nickel with an 0.85% nickel cut-off grade. Last year, the company estimated it had 51,000t of contained nickel at the same cut off grade.
> 
> http://www.miningnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=97153&sectionsource=s0


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## gringokonyo (16 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Especially as sulphide ores normally are only viable above 6% let alone below 1.




I'm not sure if your statement is correct.  I found this article that suggests otherwise.

http://www.minerals.org.au/education/secondary/secondary_resources/factsheets/nickel

In the examples provided in the article, the highest grades of nickel concentrate are obtained from lower grade of Ni content in the ore.  I'm not sure how that works out.  

I'm no expert on the ore processing, so perhaps this is irrelevant to your comment that Sulphide is only viable above 6%.

Quote from the article:

After mining, the sulphide ores are transported to a concentrator to upgrade their nickel content. The ores are first crushed and ground, liberating the sulphide minerals from worthless rock, or gangue. The sulphide minerals are then separated from the gangue, by flotation, and dried. 

Ores mined at Kambalda grade about 3% Ni content and the concentrates produced after treatment in the concentrator grade around 11% Ni. By comparison, Leinster ores contain about 2% Ni and concentrates produced there have about 12% Ni. Mt Keith ore grades at 0.6% and concentrates at 20% Ni.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 April 2007)

Good support for SMY today off the break, decent volume and those taking profits short, soaked up!.

Thin spreads and no real resistance, should see some positive momentum if general market sentiment......... dosen't go south  .


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## PeterPan (26 April 2007)

Hi Freeballing, 

As you know I'm new of the market/jargon. What do you mean by "this spreads" for SMY?

Many thanks
Cheers
PeterPan


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## The Barbarian Investor (9 June 2007)

*bump*

SMY seems to be in a downtrend at the moment any thoughts why?

It's a stock that i've just started looking at, amongst a few others such as OXR


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## rederob (10 June 2007)

The Barbarian Investor said:


> *bump*
> 
> SMY seems to be in a downtrend at the moment any thoughts why?
> 
> It's a stock that i've just started looking at, amongst a few others such as OXR




TBI
I think that nickel's 20% price decline from its recent highs is a BIG factor.
Although I am a BIG nickel fan, I will not be surprised to see prices dip a heck of a lot further in weeks to come.
Nevertheless, in the longer term expect this kind of volatility as inventories build, and decline, again and again.


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## michael_selway (10 June 2007)

rederob said:


> TBI
> I think that nickel's 20% price decline from its recent highs is a BIG factor.
> Although I am a BIG nickel fan, I will not be surprised to see prices dip a heck of a lot further in weeks to come.
> Nevertheless, in the longer term expect this kind of volatility as inventories build, and decline, again and again.




Hi Red

do you think at current prices, is zinc or nickel going to do better in the MT?

thx

MS


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## rederob (10 June 2007)

MS
I think that nickel is overstretched, and has been for months now.
Whereas zinc prices are lower now despite inventories making daily record lows.
So the upside is with zinc in my estimation.


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## CanOz (13 June 2007)

I got stopped out of this today as well. But to me it looks like its being accumulated as it falls. What else could explain the increase in price after the open lower?

I'll be watching this for a reversal of the trend.

Cheers,


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## porkpie324 (16 June 2007)

I think chart wise SMY could be worth a long pos, look at the volume around $4.00 and the MACD is set to go north from a minus position, I'll be looking at SMY very closely next week. porkpie


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## smoothsatin (17 June 2007)

Guys get your pens out and draw a horizontal channel, we just hit the bottom side, with this increase in volume, this has a very high probability of going north immediately, with a high reward relative to risk (a very tight stop can be set here), will be opening up a long pos tommorrow.....


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## rederob (17 June 2007)

smoothsatin said:


> Guys get your pens out and draw a horizontal channel, we just hit the bottom side, with this increase in volume, this has a very high probability of going north immediately, with a high reward relative to risk (a very tight stop can be set here), will be opening up a long pos tommorrow.....



Good luck!!!
I think a safer re-entry is at the lower end of the 30 January high of $3.03 -$3.39 as nickel can fall a long way further yet: $30k is a reasonably good price on historical bases.
I also think your charting skills are either lacking, or you are just very dangerous with a pen.
On a longer term basis a fall into $2 range cannot be discounted - which is still well above support on a 3-year log chart.
I like nickel for the very long term, but I do think that anyone wanting to short SMY could do better than the longs in the near term.


----------



## Lachlan6 (17 June 2007)

Smoothsatin,  can see the downward trendline you have drawn. However I would personally not be entering a long position as yet as it still is showing no real sign of reversing and would instead wait for a definent sign. It is though now at an important junction being the 38.2 retracement level from June 06 lows to this year's double top. Furthermore this region coincides with a strong cluster (actually not too dissimilar from the BMN chart), so it may accumulate a bit here before heading higher. However if this level is broken to the downside, it shows the market doesn't like it in the short term and lower levels beckon.


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## smoothsatin (17 June 2007)

rederob said:


> Good luck!!!
> I think a safer re-entry is at the lower end of the 30 January high of $3.03 -$3.39 as nickel can fall a long way further yet: $30k is a reasonably good price on historical bases.
> I also think your charting skills are either lacking, or you are just very dangerous with a pen.
> On a longer term basis a fall into $2 range cannot be discounted - which is still well above support on a 3-year log chart.
> I like nickel for the very long term, but I do think that anyone wanting to short SMY could do better than the longs in the near term.




Hi,

I was talking about the horizontal lines drawn at 3.9 and 5.5. Both are very significant for this stock.

I am not sure your charting skills are too flash either Rederob? If your long term support is the upward sloping trendline last approached Sept 22 2006, the price has since nearly quadrupled, so i suspect the line is no longer relevent? Anyway, i am not fussed if the price drops back to $2, if support looks like holding up at 3.9 during trading tomorrow, i begin to enter, if it then fails this support level - i will sell, i am looking at trading the stock not marrying it.


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## rederob (17 June 2007)

smoothsatin said:


> Hi,
> 
> I was talking about the horizontal lines drawn at 3.9 and 5.5. Both are very significant for this stock.
> 
> I am not sure your charting skills are too flash either Rederob? If your long term support is the upward sloping trendline last approached Sept 22 2006, the price has since nearly quadrupled, so i suspect the line is no longer relevant? Anyway, i am not fussed if the price drops back to $2, if support looks like holding up at 3.9 during trading tomorrow, i begin to enter, if it then fails this support level - i will sell, i am looking at trading the stock not marrying it.



What is significant is what drives the price of SMY - that's the price of nickel.
You can twist and turn any which way, but presently nickel is both fundamentally and technically weak.
I don't expect that to change until there is a good reason for either to turn, and presently a prayer may not cut it.

On the issue of charting, by all means disregard what is no longer relevant, but a long term trend channel is exactly as it says - long term.
Its relevance is due to the fact that the channel supports itself, often time and again.  In SMY's case the chart's support is maintained 5 times and broken twice intraday in around 2 years.  Log charts have a tendency to better approximate a company's steady growth and there remains in SMY's case considerable downside given its present position in the upper portion of its channel.
I also compared the 2-year and 3-year regression lines and found that for the 2-year, we are on the money at around $4.  
While that's a good sign, the reality is that prices move about the mean: And in this case a downside movement equivalent to its distance on the upside suggests SMY has a chance of dipping below $3. 
The 3-year regression lands us around $2.70 at the moment.


----------



## nioka (18 June 2007)

rederob said:


> What is significant is what drives the price of SMY - that's the price of nickel.
> You can twist and turn any which way, but presently nickel is both fundamentally and technically weak.
> I don't expect that to change until there is a good reason for either to turn, and presently a prayer may not cut it.
> 
> ...




You make a mistake in reading a 3 year chart for SMY without taking into account a few other factors.
1. SMY weren't in production 3 years ago.
2. The amount of production which was subjected to price hedging at the start of production.
3. A break down of production in the early production stage.
4. The rates of production.
 The chart is only relevant if those factors had been constant.
IMO fundamentals are more important than the charts and charts must always be viewed taking the fundamentals into account.


----------



## porkpie324 (18 June 2007)

Yes I agree Noika allways check the fundementals first SMY is totally different from 3 years ago, SMY is also increasing production, technically they are I believe looking attractive infact I have gone long on 2 CFD contracts today, nothing to big haven't loaded up the truck! BTW have also gone long IGO & MCR, porkpie


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## Col Lector (18 June 2007)

Giddy Porkpie, Mmm going long MCR/IGO/SMY.....What's your reasoning here?? Are you expecting a rebound in Nickel price? see them as oversold? takeover fodder? or that growing production will offset NiP pullback?? All of the above?? More??


----------



## porkpie324 (18 June 2007)

Hi col. I see them as oversold at the mo especially SMY & IGO, so made the decision to start accumalating. If all goes south I take the loss. But all 3 have been great perfomers in the past for me, nothing ventured?porkpie


----------



## stockGURU (18 June 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> Hi col. I see them as oversold at the mo especially SMY & IGO, so made the decision to start accumalating. If all goes south I take the loss. But all 3 have been great perfomers in the past for me, nothing ventured?porkpie




Porkpie, could you please state your reasons for SMY being oversold. Saying it is one thing, but providing some specifics is another.

Would appreciate you explaining your view in more detail here. Thanks!


----------



## porkpie324 (18 June 2007)

OK Guru, I'm obviously in your headlights, all 3 are well run companies with excellant management all paying divs which will probably increase, also all 3 companies are inreasing production and ore resoures, thats the fundementals.
  Technically look at some of the previous posts with charts all 3 are similar especially SMY&IGO, so looking at the above I'm going from a completely cashed up position to accumalation.
 Of coarse nothing in this world apart death&taxes is certain but I'm prepaired to risk these trades, I could be wrong and be buying to soon, time will tell. porkpie


----------



## rederob (18 June 2007)

nioka said:


> You make a mistake in reading a 3 year chart for SMY without taking into account a few other factors.
> 1. SMY weren't in production 3 years ago.
> 2. The amount of production which was subjected to price hedging at the start of production.
> 3. A break down of production in the early production stage.
> ...




*1.* Mining prestrip began in March 2004 - over 3 years ago and first ore was shipped in September that year. So its a wee bit pedantic to quibble over a few months in relation to a 3-year chart.
However, its not clever to consider the timeframe irrelevant when in fact 12 months after the processing plant was commissioned the stock price had risen only 12 cents.  In fact SMY was in the doldrums for a considerable period and after falling below $1 on 12 April 2005, it was not able to break the shackles of $1 again until 28 March 2006.
Were we to extrapolate that trend SMY would still be in the dollar range today.
*2. *In relation to "hedging", you have again missed the relevance.  When SMY hedged 7,000 tonnes in February 2004 (now that would be over 3 years ago!) they got a price of US$10k/tonne.  Just in case it escaped your attention, this was some 30% higher than the prevailing spot price:  And Spot nickel only breached $10k/tonne in May 2006.
*3.* Your point about the processing plant (girth gear) breakdown is marginal given only a month was lost.
*4.* And your point about "production" is not moot as mined output of contained nickel was about 25% greater than reserve estimates in 2004.

So your contention that the fundamentals seem only important when you choose to see them as important.
Presently the fundamentals of nickel - the underlying commodity that drives SMY's price - are not good.  Indeed, there are many analysts - folk that have watched the market much longer than me - suggesting that $30k nickel is a high probability given the demand destruction that occurred when nickel prices recently held near the $50k mark.
Given that I am a fundamental analyst by nature, you might like to temper your ardour a little if you misread or misinterpret SMY's past.


----------



## Sean K (18 June 2007)

rederob said:


> Presently the fundamentals of nickel - the underlying commodity that drives SMY's price - are not good.  Indeed, there are many analysts - folk that have watched the market much longer than me - suggesting that $30k nickel is a high probability given the demand destruction that occurred when nickel prices recently held near the $50k mark.



I agree things are looking ordinary at the moment for Nickel stocks that ran up with the price and are now going to come back to the mean. I have seen $30K as a long term price as well (in the Fin this weekend) but we need to take one analyst's forecast FWIW. Having said that, they are usually pretty conservative. Events could unfold to change the supply demand mix of course. 

General point reading through this thread: there seems to be a bit of emotion hanging on this. Untidy.

Chart wise, this is going down until it makes a higher low and high. That means breaking $4.50 on the way up, for a start. Confirmed break down through $4.00 could send it to $3.15 ish, IMO.  

The fundamentals are factored into the chart - long term, and short term. Along with the sentiment.


----------



## porkpie324 (18 June 2007)

Even if nickel does fall to 30k ton and there's opinions on that, SMY on its forecast production will turnover 600 mil per year.
 Check the SMY website and read the broker reports they all but one rate SMY a buy, there could just be some end of financial year institution selling here which makes a great accumalation period, as I said I hav'nt loaded up the truck yet and yes this $4.00 level is important, there seems plenty of support just below $4.00.porkpie


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## porkpie324 (19 June 2007)

Well looks like my analysis was wrong tried to get in to soon, have closed my pos at a loss, fortunately I went long on JML so have offset my losses a bit, but I'll be watching the nickel for a turnaround.porkpie


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## Col Lector (19 June 2007)

Gidday Porkpie...a bit of pain today...but interesting to note that despite Barclay's capital apparently turning bearish last night citing pig-iron production/lme stock rebuilds/stainless production stalling in Europe.....the Barclay's Group have been accumulating MCR (to 9.26% on 1/6/07) and IGO (to 8% on 23/05/07). Unsure if they are in SMY, but these are significant strategic stakes and selling today doesnt suggest that they are offloading. A big question.....are they buying the dribs & drabs?? MCR & IGO have been touted as key companies in any consolidation of the Kambalda Ni region by commentators on the CSM/Pallinghurst proposal. However...would be a concern if Barclays do dump onto the mkt though
Good move on JML anyway..I've been bullish on these guys for the last month. & CSM holding up despite Zn exposure. Might duplicate this post on the Ni thread...see if anyone biting out there


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## porkpie324 (19 June 2007)

Hi Col, yes read that article too, I just wonder if there's some manipulating going here with nickel and sound nickel stocks, anyway  I was'nt going to risk it so sold closed my open positions, was tempted to short but I still feel positive on nickel stocks and reluctant to do so. Also have closed my MCR head shares, held for about 2 years so really in the money there.
 As for JML hold the head shares,  in the money there too, you can now trade JML with CFDs so opened a pos last week with them.
  As for my MCR, IGO&SMY analysis you can't be correct all the time and there will be other oppotunities i'm sure. porkpie


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## Col Lector (19 June 2007)

Porkpie...those JML are flying!! Still hold some of my original IGO/MCR....but have reduced bigtime over last month....cant feel the pain though....the JML offset effect I guess


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## rub92me (19 June 2007)

No expert on the fundamentals, but accepting that SMY sp and Nickel prices are closely linked. With SMY sp at 4.00 it has come off close to 30% of the high, and Nickel about 20%. Following that train of thought the SMY sp had perhaps a bit 'overreacted' to the price decline in Nickel?  I'm still in this long term for the dividend (free carried after selling only about 20% of my original holding ).


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## porkpie324 (20 June 2007)

I definitely got back in too early with SMY and IGO & MCR, I did exactly the same with KZL in Jan. I've had 3 months off from trading and was to eager to open positions againporkpie


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## porkpie324 (5 July 2007)

What a great bounce off the $4.00 area, lots of support there so pushed the boat out last Thurs/Fri, really made up those previous losses, may take Mrs pork out for dinner tonight on the proceeds (RSL of coarse).porkpie


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## smoothsatin (6 July 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> What a great bounce off the $4.00 area, lots of support there so pushed the boat out last Thurs/Fri, really made up those previous losses, may take Mrs pork out for dinner tonight on the proceeds (RSL of coarse).porkpie




Are you still in Porkpie? 
I have been stopped out of my second half today, good return for such a liquid stock.


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## prophet174 (6 July 2007)

The Australian Financial Review | 06 Jul 2007 | Companies and Markets 
Takeover speculation is gathering over nickel producer Sally Malay Mining after its shares bounced back strongly. 
In the month after a production downgrade in May, the shares fell below $4 as the nickel price dropped more than 25 per cent from record levels. 
Sally Malay rose 31 ¢ to $4.74 yesterday, and is up 60 ¢ so far this week. 
The only news the company has released this week was drilling results from the Copernicus project, which one analyst said was negligible to its valuation. 
There was talk that more drilling results were imminent from the Lanfranchi venture in Western Australia, amid speculation of a takeover. 
Sally Malay has an open register and significant production coming online. Despite being a fairly high-cost producer, it is considered one of the more likely nickel targets, behind Jubilee Mines and Minara Resources. 
Managing director Peter Harold said a recent four-day North American roadshow was very positive and could explain the increased buying.


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## porkpie324 (6 July 2007)

No Smoothy I closed yesterday at 4.83/4.84, did look at opening again today but did'nt. What I did do was open on MCR yesterday and closed today for another good earner, all I want now is for IGO to increase and I've got the hatrick.

I consider all the above nickel miners to be well run profitable companies which I believe are certs to buy on any weakness. porkpie


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## Nick Radge (6 July 2007)

*BOTTOM LINE* 
6/7:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
6/6:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS	*
6/7:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 52 secs) Long video. Expect extended download time
We reviewed SMY exactly 1-month ago and suggested that a move toward $5.00 was then probable. Yesterdays highs was $4.87 and showed some minor supply entering the market. This area respresents minor price resistance as well and could be a level whereby prices start to fail. The larger picture is assuredly bullish but the pattern indications, both short term and long term, suggest that significant gains are not going to made any time soon. We may see short term strength continue from here if this supply abates but speaking in the context of the next few months I'd suggest SMY will be hard pressed to make new highs. That said, with the quite obvious, and strong, buyer demand back in early June it's also highly probable that significant weakness will not be forthcoming either. My analysis suggests that a broad sideways range will develop over the next few months before we start moving higher again in the multi year uptrend. Bullish, but don't be in too much of a hurry to jump on board.
6/6:
Prices have been trending lower of late and whilst I do expect a bounce in the near term I am not confident that the bounce will be sustained. This chart is the daily chart. Our last review discussed an extended sideways period from a weekly perspective and I believe that scenario to still be unfolding for a few months yet. SMY is a nickel stock but appears to have just got ahead of itself from a fundamental perspective. The longer term trend remains upward but we need a lot more sideways movement, possibly till near end of 2007, until prices are ready to start higher again. In the interim I am expecting an advance back toward the $5.00 area before weakness sets in again. If you are holding the stock as a trading position then you may wish to review volume characteristics at that level to determine continued strength or resumption of weakness - which I favour. Longer term holders simply require patience, although further weakness cannot be overlooked.

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION	*
6/7:
The wave-(4) is taking shape and there is clear evidence that it may be a broad consolidation pattern of some type. I say this for several reasons; firstly the decline down to these recent lows took the shape of a 5-wave impulse which at this stage of the trend can only be a wave-A. It cannot be the completion of a wave-(4). The weekly chart (refer video) points to a complex pattern because the wave-(2) was a simple zig zag and according to the Law of Alternation we should expect the complete opposite here at wave-(4). The complete opposite would be a broad sideways consolidation, possibly a triangle or even a flat pattern of some type. The demand volume seen at the recent lows adds weight to the argument that's its unlikely that we'll travel any lower from there. It may well be that we see a period of re-accumulation at these major highs and as we know, a wave-(4) is a byproduct of a re-accumulation phase. Because the weekly chart points to a longer time period for resolving this pattern we should now expect choppy activity between these levels for the next two months. These swings will offer trading opportunities, but longer term investors will require patience.
6/6:
The weekly chart suggests a major degree wave-(3) is in place so the wave-(4) should start taking shape. With the 5-wave pattern down off those highs I think it accurate to suggest that we're nearing the completion of a wave-(a) of a larger corrective pattern. The 5-waves down, so far, terminate near the lower side of the channel, but more importantly is the volume. Look at that volume starting to spike. I think buyers are in and if buyers are in then we may be due for the wave-(b) bounce. That bounce should take prices back to $5.00 being 50.0% retracement of the wave-(a) decline and coincide with the wave-iv of one lower degree. Bottom line here is that we should expect a bounce very soon that can be traded, but don't get to absorbed by the strength because I feel it will fail and lead to new lows.



_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


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## TheRage (7 July 2007)

Nick Radge said:


> *BOTTOM LINE*
> 6/7:
> EW Trend: Corrective
> Price Trend: Up
> ...





Thanks for the analysis Nick. I enjoy reading your posts. I have re-read adaptive analysis recently and I am starting to get a little bit of an idea on how to apply EW properly. I still use fundamental analysis for my long positions but I have been definately applying better risk management than what I use to thanks in part to your book.
Cheers Ryan


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## eMark (10 July 2007)

With the nickel price down a further 3% or so last night, and talk that it has further to fall. It appears that SMY has failed to hit $5.00 again, and has retracted 28c today as of this post. I'm feeling this could be a short term sell. I got in at $4.14 a short time ago, and I don't want my profits to erode much further. The above post from Nick Radge seems to say it all.


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## porkpie324 (10 July 2007)

I'm not sure of SMY being a shot sell,the SP has come off some yes with the price of nickel, but look at the price action SMY bounced off the $4.00 mark mid June went $4.50 then back to the $4.00 area were the support was good (thats where I opened Fri 29 june), went straight upto 4,85 (where I closed last Thursday),  as at writing over 50k shares have come on the sell side lets see what happens now, if there absorbed at about that price SMY is probably worth a long pos. porkpie


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## PeterPan (19 July 2007)

Guys, what’s happening with Sally Malay? I can’t work it out! It’s debt free, plenty of cash in the bank, turnover of around $100 Million, 13,000 tonnes of nickel produced, will pay a nice dividend in 2007-08, should have around 0.46c EPS, there is still this rumour about being targeted for takeover, the price of nickel looks like is going to stay around the $30,000 mark  …. but SMY price is still going down, slowly but steadily down!!! 

Does anyone have any idea?????


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## porkpie324 (19 July 2007)

You and me both with that pete, It's the same with all nickel miners at the mo, IGO, MCR, MRE, SMY, JBM all off since May, there's low volume so some volatility showing, But I'm sure it will be worth waiting,  some of the above are  recomended buys by brokers, it's a good time to accumalate I've been picking up all except JBM even picked up some AGM. porkpie


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## PeterPan (19 July 2007)

Hi Porkpie, do you think the herd is now hunting in the Uranium field and therefore money has all flown there? Pete


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## porkpie324 (19 July 2007)

No I don't its a different fish in different pond. Have just read this article on 'Kitco' which goes with my thinking.
'1648 GMT [Dow Jones] LME nickel prices will be dominated by technical moves in the short-term but after the summer slowdown the market will focus on Asian steel mills expected to crank up output, Standard Bank says. Adds nickel prices may have found support at current levels but there are signs that "sentiment is turning" with an increase in consumption anticipated towards the end of the year. LME nickel trades at $32,700/ton, up 3% from Tuesday's low. (DNM)' porkpie


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## PeterPan (19 July 2007)

I had read this article this morning myself too and I was feeling quite confident at open (especially because it opened +0.06!), but then downhill again!

It's 3 times now that SMY opens + but then ends -. How come ????


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## porkpie324 (19 July 2007)

Its just market forces, right now there's low volume with more sellers than buyers, until the buy side strenghthens it will continue.porkpie


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## Gundini (9 August 2007)

Have to say I am very happy to get a piece of SMY at these prices. You gotta love it when the market throws a sale! 

Based on future earning and growth potential, debt free, this stock seems very good value.

Sitting nicely on long term support seems a reasonable entry point for mine.


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## Gundini (9 August 2007)

Must say I may have been a bit rash in my decission to buy SMY.

Can't get over the LME stockpile and how fast it is growing, and conversly how fast the price of Nickel is falling! 

I can see Nickel getting back to $5 USD a pound at this rate.

Ironically, SMY is semi hedged at $5 USD a pound til 2008.

It's the unhedged part I am more concerned. 

Great support level, but that chart scares me. I'm out with a 3 cent profit.


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## joeljp (9 August 2007)

Nickel sure is plummeting like a lead balloon. It will slow down toward the Northern hemisphere winter when the Ruskies won't be able to ship out Nickel due to ice blocking the shipping lanes. I hope it wil be a cold, long winter up there


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## michael_selway (13 September 2007)

Just wondering if SMY has a limited mine life?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 58.1 61.8 78.0 69.3 
DPS 12.0 14.0 19.5 14.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 61.8 6.4 6.3% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 78.0 5.0 26.2%* 

thx

MS


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## brerwallabi (14 September 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Just wondering if SMY has a limited mine life?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Michael
You will find that Sally have a 10 year mine.
The resource has been continually added to and its quite possible it could extend further in the surrounding areas.


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## fmf (17 September 2007)

joeljp said:


> Nickel sure is plummeting like a lead balloon. It will slow down toward the Northern hemisphere winter when the Ruskies won't be able to ship out Nickel due to ice blocking the shipping lanes. I hope it wil be a cold, long winter up there




latest news from sally
17 September 2007
Manager Announcements
Companies Announcements Office
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
10th Floor, 20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
• Broad intervals of high-grade massive nickel sulphide mineralization intersected down plunge of Lanfranchi
• Best results, 33m @ 11.3% Ni, 13.8m @ 7.46% Ni, 24.1m @ 5.37% Ni (true width 1-2m)
• Nickel sulphide mineralisation extended by 60m down plunge
• Lanfranchi Nickel deposit remains open down plunge
Sally Malay Mining Limited (ASX Code: SMY) is pleased to announce the results from an ongoing resource delineation
drill program to evaluate the down plunge extension of the Lanfranchi Nickel deposit. Of particular significance are the
broad intervals of a high-grade massive Ni sulphide mineralisation in three drill holes along the western side of the
projected extension of the Lanfranchi deposit.
To date, 27 holes have been completed as part of the Lanfranchi resource extension drill program with nickel sulphide
mineralisation being extended 60 metres down plunge from the lowest production level and across widths of 200
metres. The Lanfranchi Nickel deposit remains open at depth and drilling is ongoing. Assay results for the program are
reported in Table 1.
Grades and thicknesses encountered in the drill program are consistent with past production experience at
Lanfranchi. Under the previous operator, the Lanfranchi deposit produced 1.4 million tonnes of ore grading 2.32% Ni,
along a 1.4 kilometre plunge extent, with true thickness generally ranging from 1 to 3 metres. Mining widths across the
deposit have historically ranged between 100 to 200 metres.
Three drill holes along the western margin of the drill program have intersected broad intervals of high-grade massive
nickel sulphide mineralisation. Results for the three holes are 24.1m grading 5.37% Ni from hole LAN127, 13.8m
grading 7.46% Ni from hole LAN137 and 33m grading 11.3% Ni from hole LAN148. An initial interpretation suggests a
very low intercept angle for the three intersections with the mineralisation situated in the footwall basalt sequence
marginally below the normal ultramafic/basalt contact target horizon and with an estimated true thickness of 1-2
metres. The massive Ni sulphide zone appears open both up and down-plunge and possibly to the west.
The Lanfranchi Joint Venture is currently completing the initial 40-hole Lanfranchi resource delineation drill program.
Once the program is completed all results will be modeled for a better understanding of the extent and orientation of this
high-grade mineralised zone.


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## agro (20 December 2007)

Hi all,
might i add my first post ever to these forums..

SMY has tickled my fancy of late with the ZFX proposed takeover of AGM:
"Argonaut Securities said the bid was good news for all nickel juniors because the acquisition of Allegiance would not be Zinifex's last. "The 8500 tonnes of (annual) production from Avebury is too small to form a meaningful business unit within a $7 billion company. By taking out Allegiance, Sally Malay (10,000 tonnes) and and Albidon (8500 tonnes), Zinifex could provide Jinchuan with 27,000 tonnes a year of nickel from the one mining house," it said."
http://business.smh.com.au/zinifex-starts-nickel-chase-with-hostile-bid/20071217-1hmq.html

also, for those watching did anyone else notice a couple of bids over 200,000 fluctuate between 4.77 and 4.78 today?


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## aaronphetamine (20 December 2007)

Hey agro I'm also a share holder of SMY, My average price of entry is 5.15 at the moment and i really wished I could have had some funds to pick up some more the other day when it dropped sharply early morning.

I do like this stock though and I like how it has big price fluctuations daily, Ill be happy once the SP is back up over 5.20 !


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## agro (21 December 2007)

aaronphetamine said:


> Hey agro I'm also a share holder of SMY, My average price of entry is 5.15 at the moment and i really wished I could have had some funds to pick up some more the other day when it dropped sharply early morning.
> 
> I do like this stock though and I like how it has big price fluctuations daily, Ill be happy once the SP is back up over 5.20 !




if u read the smart investor magazine 'takeover targets' issue, SMY is mentioned as a potential target and second largest nickel producer behind Minara


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## denny.wang (24 January 2008)

fat prophets is suggest buy at $4.00 and stop loss at $3.50, now the price is $3.77, not sure would it still go down trend.


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## nioka (24 January 2008)

agro said:


> if u read the smart investor magazine 'takeover targets' issue, SMY is mentioned as a potential target and second largest nickel producer behind Minara



I'm surprised that Zinifex hasn't made a bid for SMY before this. Their bid for AGM will cost them more than the current market cap of SMY and they say that AGM has yet to prove it's potential. SMY has proved itself. They must have it in their sights, particularly when AGM are not cooperating and will not give in easily.


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## porkpie324 (24 January 2008)

Yes I agree 'Nioka,SMY is not the only nickel miner to be looking good either, IGO,MCR,&WSA would be my preverance, but I guess ZFX no more than us. porkpie


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## oldblue (2 February 2008)

Pretty solid quarterly report from SMY.
I might buy a few more next week if the sky doesn't fall meanwhile!


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## Julia (3 November 2008)

What happened to this company?  I owned it some while ago and when attempting to see what the SP is now, E-trade shows no such company,
ditto Mineral Resources.


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## lazyfish (3 November 2008)

Julia said:


> What happened to this company?  I owned it some while ago and when attempting to see what the SP is now, E-trade shows no such company,
> ditto Mineral Resources.




I heard that they changed their name to Panoramic Resources after getting sued for using the name Sally Malay. Their website can be found here.


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## Julia (3 November 2008)

Thank you, Lazyfish.  And now I will keep typing to comply with the 100 character rule.  Seems so silly when I just wanted to say thank you for your trouble.


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## Sean K (3 November 2008)

Julia said:


> Thank you, Lazyfish.  And now I will keep typing to comply with the 100 character rule.  Seems so silly when I just wanted to say thank you for your trouble.



That's almost worth an infraction Julia! 

Maybe even suspension.

Or, I may be making a joke to comply with the 100 character rule.


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## oldblue (3 November 2008)

Good to see PAN's SP have a nice bounce today. PoN -related, no doubt.

Memo - Joe Blow.
1. Could we have name of this thread changed to "PAN Panoramic Resources " please?
2. Is there a system problem at present? Slow response times ( only seem to apply to this site, as least as far as my machine's concerned.)
Cheers.


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## Joe Blow (3 November 2008)

oldblue said:


> Good to see PAN's SP have a nice bounce today. PoN -related, no doubt.
> 
> Memo - Joe Blow.
> 1. Could we have name of this thread changed to "PAN Panoramic Resources " please?
> ...




oldblue,

I have started a new thread which you can find here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13201

Discussion on Panoramic Resources (PAN) will continue there.

This thread will now be closed.

No current system problems that I am aware of but will take a look to see if there are any issues. If you continue to experience slowness please let me know via PM.


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