# RAU - Republic Gold



## Caliente (9 July 2007)

*RAU - REPUBLIC GOLD LTD*

hello all - here's another interesting micro-cap to watch. 

Tungsten/Moly/Gold play with several announcements coming over the next two months...

Getting a lot of HC attention - and will require a speeding ticket or ann pretty soon at this rate. 

Keep it on the radar.

Has FPO and options RAUO (2.5 cent ex. Nov08)

Cheers
-Cali


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## moses (9 July 2007)

I mentioned this stock in the "Potential Trend Reversals" thread a couple of days ago and since then it has consolidated and is looking better than ever. Its up 27% today again, and oppies up 54%, with nicely increasing volume.


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## moses (10 July 2007)

The company got a speeding ticket this morning and said it knew nothing to explain the rise in SP. Luckily for me I had already sold at its peak   but I'll be watching to see if I should buy back in.


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## moses (11 July 2007)

Evidently I wasn't watching carefully enough...its back up by 20% and oppies by 28% already. I know they have tungsten interests, but would somebody mind doing a but of fundy analysis of this stock to see what might be going on and what we might expect from it please?

thanks.


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## sydneysider (11 July 2007)

moses said:


> I mentioned this stock in the "Potential Trend Reversals" thread a couple of days ago and since then it has consolidated and is looking better than ever. Its up 27% today again, and oppies up 54%, with nicely increasing volume.




Busted over 3 cents. Has a three month reversal pattern pointing at +6 cents. Volume on the breakout looks very healthy. Fundamentally the move is connected to option to purchase Mt Carbine tungsten mine in Queensland and succesful exploration for tunsten? on other Queensland leases. Throw in a major gold project 500-750,000 ounces and a shares in a SA U project all for about A$13 million. Looks very interesting.


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## porkpie324 (11 July 2007)

I got some RAU as an entitlement from another company (can't remember who though) but had an unmarketable lot, anyway I noticed the spike up during May then bought some more at about 2c to make up a saleable lot. Looks as if there is some intrest on ASF and the SP has increased on good volume so I might just keep them a bit longer. porkpie


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## sydneysider (12 July 2007)

Technicals on the daily chart now indicate a breakout from a base W formation. The OBV pattern on the chart below indicates that the rush of buying started 6 days ago. The break on very hi volume above 3.3 clearly shows a trend reversal and the pattern points to +6 cents.


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## j4mesa (12 July 2007)

Would be interesting to see how it holds for the closing time period....
If it holds 0.033, that would be good.....


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## sydneysider (13 July 2007)

*Re: RAU - Republic Gold-Valuation*

Issued shares 431,000,000 (and 151,000,000 oppies ex @ 2.5 in late 2008) trading at 3 cents for an undiluted valuation of A$12,930,000.

Operations run from reg'd office located in Mareeba which sits in the midst of most of current leases and operations. Palmer River goldfield is nearby. Most of the current interest IMHO stems from the fact that RAU has ramped up its Tungsten exploration program in this district. It has a number of large tenements that surround the Vital Metals Tunsten Mine (under development and valued at $75,000,000). 

Several months ago RAU announced that they had identified an anomalous structure called anomaly B which RAU claimed about the same size as Vital Metals anomaly but with higher grades indicated from surface sampling. At that time RAU completed a nightime reconnaisance to identify the extent of the surface expression of the tungsten ore zone (scheelite/tungsten glows under ultra violet light). From these various exploration efforts RAU identified a target length of 2,000 meters x 1,000m (several months ago) and since then that length has substantially expanded to now include approximately 4,000 m x 1,100m AND three other new zones one of which has both molybdenum and scheelite over 400 meters. The interesting point here is that the target zones and their numbers get bigger and bigger and the potential richness has increased with the discovery of moly in one of the zones. 

Then throw in the fact that RAU now has an option over the old Mt Carbine Tungsten Mine which is a fully developed mine with declines into 7,000,000 tonnes (non jorc subject to verification)) of ore containing tungsten. On surface they have 670,000 tonnes of open pittable ore ready for production along with over 1,000,000 tonnes of tailings containing tungsten. The mine produced 13.5 million tonnes for 2,000,000 MTU's of tungsten. 

One MTU is currently worth US$250 / A$287. Drawing a long bow we might still have at least 1,136,300 MTU's = A$326,000,000 plus exploration potential. Assume the mine produces 1,000,000 - 1,500,000 tpa = 148,150 - 222,225 MTU's pa = A$42,500,000 - 63,750,000 pa. There is also a rock crushing business operating from Mt Carbine that comes with the deal and it is anticipated to cover current office and management costs. This also provides valuable infrastucture of trucks and some crushing equipment that can serve as the starting point for much larger mining and milling operations in the area for both gold and tungsten. 

There is upside for exploration success plus production from Mt carbine which values RAU at 2 x Vital Metals $75,000,000 longer term BUT short term say 1/3 of this valuation = A$50,000,000 or 11.6 cents per share.  

RAU gold assets are substantial. They have a number of resources around Mareeba and nearby Palmer River that are quoted at around 500,000 ounces of measured, indicated and inferred resources of around 2 g/t most of which is near surface and open pittable and will be drilled shortly to increase tonnage and measured grade and resource. Say we value this resource at A$20 oz x 500,000 with potential of 750,000 ozs = $10,000,000 - 15,000,000 or 2.3 - 3.45 cents per share. 

U assets and other leases not valued at this time which may include recovery of funds from Luzon. 

Cash is about $3,500,000 

Valuation is 13.9 - 15.05 cents per share. 

Current price is 3 cents. Upside potential on shares is 465 - 501%. Potential on oppies (from 1.7 cents and 1.3 cent premium) is 741 - 808%. 

Comments?


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## motion (13 July 2007)

Hi Sydneysider, 

Great write up…... 

The reason this caught my radar was the increased volume which lead me to some other news on RAU movements.

Republic Gold announced that it has signed a 3- month exclusive option agreement to review the assets of the Nicholson group of companies, which include the mining leases that cover the former Mt Carbine tungsten mine, with a view to making an offer to purchase these assets. The company will pay $15,000 and issue 500,000 shares for this exclusive option.

And on the 07/06/07

Republic Gold has completed its initial field programme on the new Whumbal West tungsten prospect in Far North Queensland. The Whumbal West scheelite-bearing prospect has been sampled over a strike length of 3,500m on 7 sample lines across 1,100m of the mineralisation covering the two zones of mineralisation that had been previously identified - see the plan on the following page. A total of 372 gridline soil samples, along with some additional crosscheck soil and rockchip samples, were taken which have been dispatched to the assay laboratory and results are expected in 6 to 8 weeks.

So an ann should be coming out soon with some new results. I think this has a big upside at 3c...


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## sydneysider (13 July 2007)

motion said:


> Hi Sydneysider,
> 
> Great write up…...
> 
> ...




U are right about the upside. Since this report they have found three additional tungsten zones of which at least one contains moly.


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## sydneysider (16 July 2007)

motion said:


> Hi Sydneysider,
> 
> Great write up…...
> 
> ...




U.S. Geological Survey identifies the geology at Mt. Carbine and states that these type of deposits could hold hundreds of millions of tonnes of low grade ore. They go on to state that current resources are (my comment, cannot construe as jorc) 13,000,000 tonnes @ .1% WO3 with a richer core of 8,400,000 tonnes @ .12% WO3. Historically the mine produced 16,694 tonnes of tungsten concentrate @ a grade of 68.8% and in its final year of operation produced 1,646 tonnes @ 68.2% of tungsten concentrate. Reduced to to-days numbers and pricing that is equivalent to about US$42,000,000 in annualized revenues IF the production rate picks up from the last year of prior production


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## sydneysider (18 July 2007)

We now have a major breakout on the chart. Projection on this formation points to +6 cents. IMHO fundamentals indicate a much higher price level. See prior comments. Good luck to all longs.


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## Caliente (18 July 2007)

agreed - looks like speculation over Carbine/updates etc. is taking place earlier than I thought. 

My original thoughts were that my entry may have been too early, but todays action suggests this one has caught sufficient market attention to keep it bouyant above the 3+ level.

Cheers
-Cali


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## sydneysider (18 July 2007)

Caliente said:


> agreed - looks like speculation over Carbine/updates etc. is taking place earlier than I thought.
> 
> My original thoughts were that my entry may have been too early, but todays action suggests this one has caught sufficient market attention to keep it bouyant above the 3+ level.
> 
> ...




I suspect that the frenetic buying that kicked off two hours may be connected to the pending assays from the Whumbal West prospect. Recall that detailed sampling on this prospect started a few months ago. At that time RAU alluded to the fact that the size of the target zone was about the same as the nearby Vital Metals tungsten prospect but of a higher grade. Vital has a resource that is around 13,000,000 tonnes at a grade of .35% WO3. Since that time the target zone under sampling has expanded PLUS four other zones of mineralization has been identified AND one of those zones carries moly combined with tungsten. 

IF the grades are high and potentially very large then it might be possible to open pit the resource and ship the ore 45 kms South to Mt. Carbine for treament. IMHO it might be possible to blend the hi and low grade ore found at Mt Carbine. These are my speculations and may sound premature as Whumbal West has not yet been drilled BUT whatever is going on here is very positive for further appreciation in the RAU SP. IF the assays from the Whumbal sampling are positive i believe that the RAU SP should run to much higher ground possibly to +6 cents.


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## Caliente (18 July 2007)

nice - cheers for that. I've actually had a look at Vital in the past. Seems like a very reasonable although short-life project they're getting going over there - last I checked they were sorting out some environmental approvals and economic factors. In fact if it really is close to Vitals deposits, Vital may even make a play for RAU's tungsten somewhere down the line in order to extend the life of the mine. This is *pure *speculation.

But you've got me excited over a new "med/hi-grade" tungsten prospect - I was just hoping for a go ahead on Carbine!

edit - you might want to have a look over in Outstanding Breakout Alerts as well. I'm bollocks on the technical side of things and the authority (in my mind =) ) Kennas has put up a chart on the matter.


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## motion (19 July 2007)

Hey guys, what are you making of RAU up from 0.29 yesterday to 0.04.. and with 44 million shares tradded this morning something is cooking... maybe the  Mt Carbine tungsten mine is going forward any comments...


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## kanaida (19 July 2007)

i'm very new at this but something fishing going on with the buyers and sellers....11 mil buy orders on one side, and one mil on the sell side...yet it never gets knocked over...and 1 mill sell always maintained even though about 60 mil shares have changed hands gradually... then all of a sudden11 mil buyers get knocked over


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## motion (19 July 2007)

kanaida said:


> i'm very new at this but something fishing going on with the buyers and sellers....11 mil buy orders on one side, and one mil on the sell side...yet it never gets knocked over...and 1 mill sell always maintained even though about 60 mil shares have changed hands gradually... then all of a sudden11 mil buyers get knocked over




Hi Yep, I think you are right.. it looks like a Pump and Dump day .. Kennas you where right watch out for this one... was really looking forward to some news on the mine... But you never know still might be something in the wind..


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## Caliente (19 July 2007)

you'd better believe that when a small cap goes ballistic there will be DT P&D activity. This is where the money is made. 

As an investor I make my money by holding through the swells, although a clear case can be made for the DT activity as well, the daily swing on this one today has been quite incredible to watch.


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## sydneysider (19 July 2007)

Caliente said:


> you'd better believe that when a small cap goes ballistic there will be DT P&D activity. This is where the money is made.
> 
> As an investor I make my money by holding through the swells, although a clear case can be made for the DT activity as well, the daily swing on this one today has been quite incredible to watch.




I published a chart on RAU yesterday and clearly it has broken out of a basing pattern on hi volume. I am sure there are going to be many "feints" where large parcels of stock flow into the market. I am not so sure this is a typical "pump and dump" because of the fundamentals. 

RAU has a very heavily mineralized tungsten prospect about 10 x 20 kms and about 20 kms West of Vital's Watershed tungsten mine development. This area contains Wharumbal ( 1,300m x 1,100m) along with four other surface expressions of tungsten and moly mineralization that all carry much higher surface grades than did Watershed. In total Wharumbal looks to be about four times larger than Watershed (my spec deduction) AND the RAU target zones run along about 15 kms of mineralized shear heavily laced with tungsten.

IMHO the fact that RAU is capped at about $15,000,000 which is only 20% of the cap of VML makes it a very attractive punt. Throw in the Mt Carbine option and discount the 500,000 ozs of au and a 3-4 cent SP looks awfully undervalued

So IMHO there is a very viable reason why RAU is now heading North.


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## sydneysider (20 July 2007)

The last two days of trading activity saw about 220,000,000 shares change hands. The turnover rate has gone stratospheric. Notwithstanding the comments about pump and dump the technicals are superb. The RAU chart that follows is a 2 year odessey of misery with a three month W bottom and breakout on heavy volume. I have superimposed a 100 day moving average which we have very clearly penerated on massive volume, pullback and lunge forward (which also barely modestly penetrated the 200 MA). 

The point of the long term chart is merely to illustrate the reason why there is such a heavy "churn rate" on the breakout. Very long suffering shareholders recently had a chance to "average down" at 1.3 cents plus one oppy for each two shares. At yesterday's late day pricing they got 3.5 cents for each share + 2 cents for each oppy. For a recent investment of 1.3 cents the total return was 4.5 cents or 345%.  

IMHO we might continue at the current rate of rise until resistance at 5 is broken and an assault on 8 cents is launched. This is entirely possible in the short term althou i doubt we can get above 8 in the very short term. 

This view is entirely consistent with targets from the W pointing to +6 cents. Fundamentally 8 puts at a market cap of $33,680,000 which is entirely consistent with decent results from tungsten/moly? assays coming from Whumbal, more news on Mt Carbine and gold drilling and puts us into the bottom tier of the better tungsten explorers i.e VML at $75,000,000. 

Good luck to all longs


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## SevenFX (23 July 2007)

Anyone else in on this little runner....Doing well today, 

Good movement in the last 1/2hr so perhaps one to watch if not in yet.

SevenFX


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## Caliente (23 July 2007)

yes - as my previous posts would indicate, quite heavily in and also doubled my exposure on the dip on Friday.

hope ur in SevenFX, havent seen you on the boards in a while, hope all is going well!


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## SevenFX (23 July 2007)

Caliente said:


> yes - as my previous posts would indicate, quite heavily in and also doubled my exposure on the dip on Friday.
> 
> hope ur in SevenFX, havent seen you on the boards in a while, hope all is going well!




Well Done Caliente.

I'm only recently in and just in profit, but I like it based on speckie.

Have been around, with few passive investments, but not so active on boards... 

Hope the markets have been good to U2.

Cheers
SevenFX


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## greggy (23 July 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Well Done Caliente.
> 
> I'm only recently in and just in profit, but I like it based on speckie.
> 
> ...



Yes,welcome back SevenFX.  RAU looks very strong today, up over 10% on turnover of over 20 million shares.
DYOR


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## SevenFX (23 July 2007)

greggy said:


> Yes,welcome back SevenFX.  RAU looks very strong today, up over 10% on turnover of over 20 million shares.
> DYOR




I should also welcome you back 2 Greggy, as per your last message...????

Got an Iron in CUL as well, but tis havin a breather for 2day.


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## sydneysider (23 July 2007)

greggy said:


> Yes,welcome back SevenFX.  RAU looks very strong today, up over 10% on turnover of over 20 million shares.
> DYOR




Technically RAU has broken out and up on a daily chart from a very short consolidation patern. 

I have printed a 10 day hourly chart that focusses in on the constant accumulation and bullish breakouts to the upside that have been underway during this short period. The moving average is 15 days and clearly indicates the direction of the trend. This is a momentum traders picnic. 

The bullish pattern may be indicate that very good news is coming on Whumbal and Mt Carbine. IMHO there is potential for RAU to run to 6-8 and then into the teens if news is positive.

The oppies offer excellent leverage at 2.2-2.3 for a major move.


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## greggy (23 July 2007)

SevenFX said:


> I should also welcome you back 2 Greggy, as per your last message...????
> 
> Got an Iron in CUL as well, but tis havin a breather for 2day.




Yes,  my father did have his 3rd stroke a few weeks back, a very serious one involving bleeding of the brain, but hopefully now he's slowly on the path to recovery.  RAU looks very solid chartwise, SevenFX.  
DYOR


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## SevenFX (23 July 2007)

greggy said:


> Yes,  my father did have his 3rd stroke a few weeks back, a very serious one involving bleeding of the brain, but hopefully now he's slowly on the path to recovery.  RAU looks very solid chartwise, SevenFX.
> DYOR




Sorry to hear that Greggy, and hope he's well looked after.

Maybe not a strong close at this stage, though will def hold for while.


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## greggy (23 July 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Sorry to hear that Greggy, and hope he's well looked after.
> 
> Maybe not a strong close at this stage, though will def hold for while.




Thanks SevenFX.  RAU has drifted back a bit from its day high. Still RAU seems to be one of the daytraders' favourites at present.
DYOR


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## sydneysider (24 July 2007)

greggy said:


> Thanks SevenFX.  RAU has drifted back a bit from its day high. Still RAU seems to be one of the daytraders' favourites at present.
> DYOR




RAU has now run to 4.3 on hi volume and confirmed a major breakout from the W basing formation. Much higher targets now look increasingly attainable. The oppies are up 35% this morning to 3 cents indicating very bullish interest.


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## sydneysider (25 July 2007)

To-day's ASX report indicates that RAU has located a very substantial tungsten anomaly that is 3,500 meters long and open in all directions. The richer core zone (my speculative interpretation) is that the surface expression is about twice the size of VML's Watershed deposit of 22,000,000 tonnes of WO3 @ .25% and that the surface expression of Whumbal carries higher grades. 

IMHO RAU now has a very substantial upside potential based on this mornings report.


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## Caliente (25 July 2007)

Hi Sydney - I have to say that I disagree with you there. The report is promising yes, but the fact that they are still "searching" for a drilling rig doesn't fill me with confidence. 

My gut feeling has made me come temporarily out of RAU - I will wait for things to settle. Still believe in Mt. Carbine and Whumbal, just want to be on the sidelines for a few days/weeks till I can reassess the situation. If I have to pay a cent more for re-entry so be it...


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## sandlion (25 July 2007)

Hi Caliente,

I think that in the current climate with every man and his dog sinking holes in the ground, decent suitable rigs are at a premium (even groundwater ones! all the cockies are sinking new holes for water!)

If you look at say GDY and LNC and no doubt lots of others, they have gone to the extent of buying their own rigs so they can proceed at their own pace with their own configuration and protocol. The demand side for this type of equipment is through the roof and supply is not going to keep pace...so in the areas of interest, it may be that bigger fish are keeping rigs more than busy and any company (driller or not) is going to put the deep pocket clients first.

On the conspiracy theory side, maybe the majors are keeping rigs busy to hang the prospectors out to dry...then swoop for a takeover.. 

p.s that last bits a joke  google "rig shortage" on the australian google and at least the first 5 returns are directly  topical...I see that at least there are forecasts of shortages until at least 2011...which is probably when the forecaster put his pen down and said..."I'm off to start a drilling company"...lol


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## sydneysider (26 July 2007)

Caliente said:


> Hi Sydney - I have to say that I disagree with you there. The report is promising yes, but the fact that they are still "searching" for a drilling rig doesn't fill me with confidence.
> 
> My gut feeling has made me come temporarily out of RAU - I will wait for things to settle. Still believe in Mt. Carbine and Whumbal, just want to be on the sidelines for a few days/weeks till I can reassess the situation. If I have to pay a cent more for re-entry so be it...




This tungsten project is developing on a much larger scale than was originally proposed. Whumbal West was identified as a tungsten target in May of this year. The surface exploration program over the last few months doubled the size of the surface target zone AND yesterday's report clearly indicates that West Whumbal is increasing in size in all directions which inclues the identification of a richer northerly extension where the strongest surface assays run and are "open". 

Three new structures also have been identified within 7 kms of Whumbal, one of which carries moly values. It is obvious that RAU are pressing ahead with an active surface sampling program on ALL of these structures and their extensions AND all of this work has occurred within a period of about 12 weeks. I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that the next round of sampling on the North Extension of Whumbal is imminent and that the other areas are being sampled at this moment. My feeling is that an expidited and meaningful drilling program could get underway by the end of the current quarter. 

The technical chart data looks extremely positive. U must remember that at 4 cents RAU market cap is $16.8 million which is a low cap for the potential of the targets now identified. U could easily double the market cap and still have a very reasonable valuation in light of all the news that is on the table. This excludes any spec appeal in the negotiations to secure Mt Carbine, the   gold assets and u project in SA.


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## Purd2 (26 July 2007)

http://www.brr.com.au/event/RAU/1084/25742/wmp/2pq5sdooyk

for your interest, recorded today about 11am


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## SevenFX (26 July 2007)

Anyone else having trouble playing the brr link above...

Running IE7 & MP10

Damm... I gotto write some more in here...

Cheers
SevenFX


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## mick2006 (26 July 2007)

looks like some large buyers lining up again for RAU, with the US futures looking positive after massive earnings from Apple, RAU likes to run on a positive day, so expect some late buying today in anticipation of a strong run in the morning


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## mick2006 (26 July 2007)

just finished listening to the boardroom radio interview with RAU, with a few very interesting points raised.  

-They have an extensive database compiled by BHP for their NQ tennements
-Already have substantial Gold resources
-Some of the recent Tungsten readings were off the chart they were that high.
-Interesting to note how the price of Tungsten has risen 6 fold in the last five years
*-And finally the most important thing they are expecting a new set of assay results within a week from an area that is very prospective for tin/tungsten/molybdenum.  If they have any decent samples in this next set of assay results it could certainly drive this one higher*. 


I don't know about you guys but with the recent surge in interest in the spec. mining sector it maybe worth putting a few dollars into RAU.

I think I will grab a stake tomorrow in the hope the upcoming sampling assays will drive this one higher.

This is another one that will have plenty of news going forward with both extensive drilling/sampling programs.  

Also the results of the due dillegence on the Mt Carbine Tungsten project which could be a real company maker for RAU.


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## sydneysider (27 July 2007)

mick2006 said:


> just finished listening to the boardroom radio interview with RAU, with a few very interesting points raised.
> 
> -They have an extensive database compiled by BHP for their NQ tennements
> -Already have substantial Gold resources
> ...




IF u go back to the maps that RAU published from the old BHP data it becomes apparent that there is potential for a number of mines to exist on the RAU tenements (6,000 sq kms). BHP identified seven major anomalous areas for WO3. One of those is Watershed now owned by VML, the other six are all owned by RAU. 

It is interesting to note that RAU did detailed sampling on Whumbal because it was the EASIEST target to get to after the rainy season finished AND the sampling data already released IMHO is very impressive. They have also completed the first run of sampling on a number of the other anomalous areas identified by BHP and results are imminent, one of the areas carries moly values. 

The stock has held up very well to-day and the oppies have been extremely strong. I suspect that there may be parties trying to get a major position in the company which explains the strong interest.


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## mick2006 (27 July 2007)

I agree there with you Sydneysider the stock has held up extremely well today all things considered, infact the buying depth has increased as the day has gone on, certainly signs that this one wants to go higher.

I was lucky to jump on this morning at 3.3c plenty of upside left in this one.


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## Caliente (27 July 2007)

hey sydney - loved todays strength in the face of a bloody massacre. 

Got myself a nice parcel of options to boot/.


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## AussiePaul72 (27 July 2007)

I agree!! I took the dive and got into RAU today. Even after doing my research I still wasn't sure i did the right thing after purchasing today, but at close i felt very encouraged. There is obviously good support for this stock out there, particularly considering the day it was on the market. Hopefully there are good things to come once the announcements start flowing.
I'm quite a novice in the market but have done reasonably well since i started investing in shares back in late March. I haven't been on ASF that long but want to thank all of you experienced investors (both techies & fundies) as i have learnt a lot from all of you so far.......cheers and thanks for sharing your knowledge with others!!


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## gordon2007 (31 July 2007)

News out on RAU.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070731/pdf/313q8jh638tb21.pdf

Wonder how it will be received.


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## sydneysider (31 July 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> News out on RAU.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070731/pdf/313q8jh638tb21.pdf
> 
> Wonder how it will be received.




The technicals have now swung to the bullish side. Daily chart shows a breakout from a pennant that retraced to 3.2 and has now "broken" to the upside at 4.1. We have fairly decent volume confirmation that the upward trend is resuming. Watch volume carefully. A break above 4.3 will give us a count to 7.1 (counting from the base at 1.5 to the top of the pennant at 4.3 = 2.8 cents). So 4.3 + 2.8 = 7.1. 

Quarterly is still due. I heard that the local North Queensland paper has been touting RAU as a major tungsten discovery. Lots of interest in the stock with to-day's volume already a very healthy 37,000,000. The oppies hit 3 cents in an extremely bullish show of bravado. I suspect that the oppies are being accumulated for a possible "run at" or JV with RAU. My sense is that the buyers are predicting much higher prices for RAU. Good luck to all longs.


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## SevenFX (31 July 2007)

Looks like they're back from LATE lunch with large parcels of 1m-1.5m entering ther buy side.

Total b/s volumes starting to look better, with buyers churning through 4.1c

SevenFX


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## Caliente (31 July 2007)

Hey tekk - todays announcement gives RAU a concrete footing. They have a tungsten *deposit. *forget the gold, this is arguably their most important ann. so far...

edit - lol as soon as i say that, we need a competent person statement. hold onto your hats this will e a deposit yet!


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## SevenFX (31 July 2007)

Caliente said:


> Hey tekk - todays announcement gives RAU a concrete footing. They have a tungsten *deposit. *forget the gold, this is arguably their most important ann. so far...
> 
> edit - lol as soon as i say that, we need a competent person statement. hold onto your hats this will e a deposit yet!




Welcome C, Yes certainly looking much better from a chart n anns pov.

Though, as I type/speak it's getting heavily traded with lots of traders volume in the last hr.

ATM it seems range bound bet 3.9c & 4.1c so till we see heavy volumes above/below that, it may be channeling there for the rest of the day(S).

SevenFX


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## AussiePaul72 (31 July 2007)

sydneysider said:


> The technicals have now swung to the bullish side. Daily chart shows a breakout from a pennant that retraced to 3.2 and has now "broken" to the upside at 4.1. We have fairly decent volume confirmation that the upward trend is resuming. Watch volume carefully. A break above 4.3 will give us a count to 7.1 (counting from the base at 1.5 to the top of the pennant at 4.3 = 2.8 cents). So 4.3 + 2.8 = 7.1.
> 
> Quarterly is still due. I heard that the local North Queensland paper has been touting RAU as a major tungsten discovery. Lots of interest in the stock with to-day's volume already a very healthy 37,000,000. The oppies hit 3 cents in an extremely bullish show of bravado. I suspect that the oppies are being accumulated for a possible "run at" or JV with RAU. My sense is that the buyers are predicting much higher prices for RAU. Good luck to all longs.




Thanks for the charts and explanation Sydneysider! I bought in last Friday (nervously!!!) but the fundamentals look very promising, especially after todays announcement. Can we expect the quarterly this week?
I have a couple of questions that others may want to comment on: 
(1) Does anybody think it will be a big concern that RAU are finding it difficult to come up with a drill rig? 
(2) Will the approaching wet season slow their progress at all?
Just a few questions that i have been pondering. Regardless it was a very good day for RAU. Closed around 4.3 and hopefully a good day tomorrow and maybe we could be on our way. I hope your right sydneysider that we could be on our way to 7.1 if 4.3 is broken! That will be a celebration..... :band


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## sandlion (1 August 2007)

If anybody is really thinking there is some RAU specific problem with sourcing a drill rig, let me allay your fears:

1. Front cover story on Petroleum Mag was "Drill Rigs - The wait continues"
2. Feature Article in Mining Monthly was all about overall equipment shortages for exploration, specifically drill rigs.

I would hazard a guess that most drill rig operators have ongoing contracts and call-offs with majors, and thus smaller companies have to take their place in the queue as to availability.

Even booking one doesn't mean it will be available when you want it, just that you will get it when it's finished on the job before yours...it's a bit like trying to get a taxi anywhere but the CBD, Paddington and the Valley on a weekend night..which probably makes sense to the Brisbanites but you get the gist...

happy holding


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## AussiePaul72 (1 August 2007)

sandlion said:


> If anybody is really thinking there is some RAU specific problem with sourcing a drill rig, let me allay your fears:
> 
> 1. Front cover story on Petroleum Mag was "Drill Rigs - The wait continues"
> 2. Feature Article in Mining Monthly was all about overall equipment shortages for exploration, specifically drill rigs.
> ...




Sandlion, I wasn't thinking that it was an RAU specific problem sourcing a drill rig. Thanks for the info though and you confirmed what i was thinking. I wonder what sought of delay this may mean for RAU's timeline?

However, waiting for a drill rig doesn't change the fundamentals or analysis results to date. I'm in for the long term! :dance:


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## gordon2007 (9 August 2007)

Is it just me or are there some really large buys on this today. The total volume is nothing to brag about, but the purchase amounts seem larger than normal today.


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## AussiePaul72 (14 August 2007)

I am a little puzzled by the movement in RAU's SP lately. Results reported to date have been very promising. I thought the SP held up very well recently when the market was sliding. However, over the last couple of days the SP has taken a downturn. No news out and from my perspective the fundamentals still seem very promising and potentially exciting. I'd be interested to know what others read into this movement (if anything)?


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## prawn_86 (14 August 2007)

while i dont follow rau heaps closely, it is on my watchlist.

i dont think there is much to read into it as the whole spec market is taking a hit even the 'solid' co's. And it will probably be volatile for a while yet, until the confidence comes back

depending on your strategy but either time to hold on, sell off, or a buying opportunity.


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## AussiePaul72 (20 August 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Sandlion, I wasn't thinking that it was an RAU specific problem sourcing a drill rig. Thanks for the info though and you confirmed what i was thinking. I wonder what sought of delay this may mean for RAU's timeline?
> 
> However, waiting for a drill rig doesn't change the fundamentals or analysis results to date. I'm in for the long term! :dance:




Well todays announcement answered my previous query. Announcement with more good news today from RAU in that they have secured drilling rigs and are planning to commence a drilling programme this week on the gold and tungsten projects in North Qld and then plan to drill the Burraga project in NSW in 2-3 weeks.

Also, at the end of the announcement John Kelly indicated there is a number of announcements due SOON and over the next couple of months:

(1) Assay results from a number of areas adjacent to Whumbal West will be progressively available over the next 1-2 weeks

(2) Due diligence on Mt Carbine is progressing successfully and a further announcement on this work is expected shortly

(3) Second round of sampling at the highly prospective Whumbal West tungsten project was completed last week. Its anticipated that assay results will be available in 6-7 weeks.

Very good day for RAU SP today on the good news .... up 45% !!!


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## gordon2007 (24 August 2007)

New out today that they will commence drilling. Guess that is good news for those who had doubt. 


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070824/pdf/3144ps58vdwdc7.pdf





sandlion said:


> If anybody is really thinking there is some RAU specific problem with sourcing a drill rig, let me allay your fears:
> 
> 1. Front cover story on Petroleum Mag was "Drill Rigs - The wait continues"
> 2. Feature Article in Mining Monthly was all about overall equipment shortages for exploration, specifically drill rigs.
> ...


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## Whiskers (5 September 2007)

Hi AussiePaul



AussiePaul72 said:


> Also, at the end of the announcement John Kelly indicated there is a number of announcements due SOON and over the next couple of months:




I wonder if the repayment of the $2.3m debt from Luzon will be one of them? 

I also have only recently bought into them. I lost interest for awhile when the deal with Luzon started going wrong. Has anyone got any information how that's going? eg Is it an issue of Luzon contesting the debt or they can't raise the dough? 

The soil sample assays adjacent Whumbal West should be out any day now too.


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## gordon2007 (10 September 2007)

More news out. Up %23 percent today. Am I the only one holding this dog? 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070910/pdf/314g8zclbprllx.pdf. 


Anyone care to add their two cents to the news?


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## prawn_86 (10 September 2007)

im not a holder, but from a very breif look at the ann it seems that all they have done is used a different method to analyse the rocks. 

Seems a bit dodgy to me. IE - why did they need to use this method in the first place? what was wrong with the original way?

just seems as though they are trying to push the price. but i have very limited geo knowledge so dont take any notice of what i say.


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## sydneysider (10 September 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> im not a holder, but from a very breif look at the ann it seems that all they have done is used a different method to analyse the rocks.
> 
> Seems a bit dodgy to me. IE - why did they need to use this method in the first place? what was wrong with the original way?
> 
> just seems as though they are trying to push the price. but i have very limited geo knowledge so dont take any notice of what i say.




Dear Prawn,

Typically you use a very aggressive solution to dissolve your target metal and then assay the solution. Unfortunately much of the tin and tungsten failed to dissolve into solution thus giving a low reading. XRF is a more precise way of assaying for tungsten. Hazelwood Resources are using this technique in their tunsten assaying as well. The lab advised RAU to re-assay and the results increased by about 1000% for both tin and tungsten. IMHO RAU may be sitting on a very large and very rich tungsten target /deposit at Whumbal West. Good luck to all longs.


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## prawn_86 (10 September 2007)

ok thanks for that, like i said i dont know much geo stuff, but am trying to learn 

thanks again.


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## sydneysider (10 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> More news out. Up %23 percent today. Am I the only one holding this dog?
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070910/pdf/314g8zclbprllx.pdf.
> 
> ...




These re-assays from Whumbal are IMHO indicating that something very major may be happening at Whumbal West. The mineralized target zone is very large and may about three times larger than the surface signiture of VML's tungsten deposit next door (i am relying on my memory here and will recheck this fun fact). In fact RAU are saying that Whumbal may be much larger still because a number of soil assaying lines ended in mineralization extending both North/South and East/West. They are now saying that the soil samples that were originally assayed for tungsten are now about ten times richer than previously reported. 

The chart below is indicative of what may follow in a more balanced market


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## Whiskers (10 September 2007)

I reckon you're pretty right sydneysider 

I only got options. I had a sale price locked in just above todays high, but with more infill and extensional assays coming in a month or so, and drilling starting pretty soon, I think I'll hold onto them for a bit until I get a better picture of how big of a resource they are talking about.


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## AussiePaul72 (10 September 2007)

sydneysider said:


> Dear Prawn,
> 
> Typically you use a very aggressive solution to dissolve your target metal and then assay the solution. Unfortunately much of the tin and tungsten failed to dissolve into solution thus giving a low reading. XRF is a more precise way of assaying for tungsten. Hazelwood Resources are using this technique in their tunsten assaying as well. The lab advised RAU to re-assay and the results increased by about 1000% for both tin and tungsten. IMHO RAU may be sitting on a very large and very rich tungsten target /deposit at Whumbal West. Good luck to all longs.




Hey Sydneysider, thanks for your posts ......very informative. I am a holder of RAU and in my opinion i agree with your comments that the news today made an already promising Tungsten / Tin resource now seem more like a potentially very large rich resource (Tungsten results upgraded by over 1000% and Tin upgrade by 500-1000%) where there is still much potential for further upgrade once the physical size of the resource is fully explored. In today's announcement, the company mentioned that infill & line extension samples for Whumbal West were submitted mid August and they expect results to be available in 4-6 weeks (mid to late Sept).
As a holder i am very pleased with the way things are moving forward and obviously the market accepted todays news extremely positively by sending the SP up 20% on a day where the overall market slipped over 1%.


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## sydneysider (11 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Hey Sydneysider, thanks for your posts ......very informative. I am a holder of RAU and in my opinion i agree with your comments that the news today made an already promising Tungsten / Tin resource now seem more like a potentially very large rich resource (Tungsten results upgraded by over 1000% and Tin upgrade by 500-1000%) where there is still much potential for further upgrade once the physical size of the resource is fully explored. In today's announcement, the company mentioned that infill & line extension samples for Whumbal West were submitted mid August and they expect results to be available in 4-6 weeks (mid to late Sept).
> As a holder i am very pleased with the way things are moving forward and obviously the market accepted todays news extremely positively by sending the SP up 20% on a day where the overall market slipped over 1%.




There are also more assays coming on a number of other anomalies that are located generally in the Whumbal West area and include moly, tungsten, tin and antimony. These assays have been due foe well over two weeks. Lots of drilling underway as well, especially at Mt Carbine at this moment. 

The stock is holding up very well at 3.8 with few sellers at this level.


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## gordon2007 (11 September 2007)

Sydney....Care to take a guess as to what the the share price could do if all things fell into place nice and neatly? A short, medium, and long term price?


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## sydneysider (17 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> Sydney....Care to take a guess as to what the the share price could do if all things fell into place nice and neatly? A short, medium, and long term price?




There are short term factors to consider (leaving aside the the developing Whumbal project and potential of the surrounds) and that is Mt Carbine. The tungsten in the general area was mined from quartz systems BUT last year VML at Watershed which is a few miles North of Mt Carbine and a few miles East of Whumbal discovered significant quantities of tungsten in the granite which really opens up the potential in the whole area. VML postulates a very substantial deep underground source for the tungsten. 

We know that RAU are now drilling on a multi million tonne tailings pile at Mt Carbine and I assume that they are looking for both tungsten in both the discarded quartz and in the granite (that based on my research was completely discarded). RAU say that the tailings fluoresce with scheelite when exposed to UV light. 

Another very speculative angle at Whumbal, now that the soil sampling grades there have gone thru the roof is that they might have located a major granitic / quartz "feeder" system here. 

Some folk have said that the grades at Mt Carbine are too low BUT North American Tungsten (Canadian trade symbol NTC) is now mining the Cantung Mine up in the NW Territories. Where the grade is 1.17% of WO3 and they recover 77.5% to collect .9% of WO3. Indicated resources are 33 million tons. This is the identical historical recovery rate at Mt Carbine. The US geological survey pegs Mt Carbine at a potential 100 million tonnes of ore. Annualized gross profit at Cantung is A$20 million on a monthly production rate of 26,550 MTU's per month according to their SEDAR files (i have projected the most recent quarter to a year at an MTU of US$240). 

NTC is currently worth A$188.6 million undiluted at C$1.55 per share. IMHO we have potential of about 300-600% increase on RAU shares on good results at Whumbal and development of production at Mt carbine announced. There is lots of upside here and explains the Chinese interest in the stock and the very tight trading in the options (where you do not need to report any position to the ASX until u exercise).


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## AussiePaul72 (17 September 2007)

sydneysider said:


> There are short term factors to consider (leaving aside the the developing Whumbal project and potential of the surrounds) and that is Mt Carbine. The tungsten in the general area was mined from quartz systems BUT last year VML at Watershed which is a few miles North of Mt Carbine and a few miles East of Whumbal discovered significant quantities of tungsten in the granite which really opens up the potential in the whole area. VML postulates a very substantial deep underground source for the tungsten.
> 
> We know that RAU are now drilling on a multi million tonne tailings pile at Mt Carbine and I assume that they are looking for both tungsten in both the discarded quartz and in the granite (that based on my research was completely discarded). RAU say that the tailings fluoresce with scheelite when exposed to UV light.
> 
> ...




Thanks for your research & very informative post Sydneysider. I'm a holder of RAU and was initially attracted by the Whumbal project and future potential of it and its surrounds. I was one that wasn't that excited about the Mt Carbine work but you've put a new perspective on it and used a working example of how it is very economical elsewhere in the world. 
May i ask you to expand on what you know about the Chinese interest in the stock?


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## sydneysider (20 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Thanks for your research & very informative post Sydneysider. I'm a holder of RAU and was initially attracted by the Whumbal project and future potential of it and its surrounds. I was one that wasn't that excited about the Mt Carbine work but you've put a new perspective on it and used a working example of how it is very economical elsewhere in the world.
> May i ask you to expand on what you know about the Chinese interest in the stock?




Recently a Chinese investor from Hong Kong and a group from Malaysia agreed to take 60 million shares @ 85% of the ruling price in the week prior to a Shareholders Meeting set down for the first week in October. We assume that these folk are associated with Refinery interests (but i may be wrong). At the time this news was announced RAU was 2.8 now it just hit 3.8. Assays have been pending from a number of anomalies around Whumbal for tungsten, tin, moly and antimony and other metals. Worth watching carefully.


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## gordon2007 (20 September 2007)

Well it will certainly be interesting to see if it gets any play time. Someone's just bought nearly a million shares in one purchase. By the lack of posts in this thread I just don't think it's a very noticed entity though.


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## explod (20 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> Well it will certainly be interesting to see if it gets any play time. Someone's just bought nearly a million shares in one purchase. By the lack of posts in this thread I just don't think it's a very noticed entity though.





I recieved my first shares a few years ago as a spin off from another company which went broke.  A lot of that was due to management ramping and playing investors for suckers.   I am holding my few and watching, by all reports its looks like it may be OK, but caution is a good thing.


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## porkpie324 (20 September 2007)

Me too got RAU through another company, but can't remember who, but had an unmarketable holding so bought some more. But with all chatter here I have kept them hoping for a windfall. porkpie


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## gordon2007 (21 September 2007)

WOW...what was that all about. Some very odd price behaviours the last 10 minutes today. Few million shares in the last minutes of a friday. Sure does make one wonder.


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## Whiskers (21 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> WOW...what was that all about. Some very odd price behaviours the last 10 minutes today. Few million shares in the last minutes of a friday. Sure does make one wonder.




Yeah caught my attention too. About double normal daily turnover, 500,000 opts too in the last 10min and all finished on days high. Must be more news immiment!


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## AussiePaul72 (21 September 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Yeah caught my attention too. About double normal daily turnover, 500,000 opts too in the last 10min and all finished on days high. Must be more news immiment!




Wow .... what a surge by RAU! 
To quote some figures, approx 9.8 of the 11 million shares traded today (or over 88%) occurred in the last half hour of trading. More than a coincidence in my opinion!
The SP opened at 3.7c and with the big run of trading toward the close rose to 4.0c, an 8.1% surge for the day.
Anyone heard any news? Seems like something big caught the attention of those in the know .... maybe all will be revealed Monday??


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## gordon2007 (24 September 2007)

I know you can't really count on pre market sales depth, but if any of this morning holds true, could be in for a another surge like last friday's. If RAU has a really good day again, could it then be mentioned in "potential break out alerts"?  I suck with charts and backing anything up, so either way it wouldn't be me posting it.


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## gordon2007 (24 September 2007)

Something has got to be up. It's going crazy in volume and price yet no announcements or anything. I'm just wondering if it has been mentioned on another board or something. 6 million shares and up 7.5% already today.


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## AussiePaul72 (24 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> I know you can't really count on pre market sales depth, but if any of this morning holds true, could be in for a another surge like last friday's. If RAU has a really good day again, could it then be mentioned in "potential break out alerts"?  I suck with charts and backing anything up, so either way it wouldn't be me posting it.




G'day Gordon ....... won't be me posting either......lol ........but i'm on RAU and happy to be along for the ride ......wonder if news will be out today sometime?


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## gordon2007 (24 September 2007)

I should use this chance to properly understand charts and learn to post them. Excuses Excuses Excuses...I'm a bit pre-occupied at work to give it %100 attention.


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## gordon2007 (24 September 2007)

Ahh so there is news out.

RGL
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
24 September 2007
The Manager
Companies Announcement Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
DRILL RIG COMMENCES WORK AT MT CARBINE
The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) announces that it’s contract drill rig has set
up on its first diamond drillhole at the Mt Carbine mine and will commence drilling soon. Mt Carbine is
currently the subject of an option arrangement whereby the Company has been granted exclusivity by the
owner of Mt Carbine to assess the property.
FNQ drilling contractor Drill North Pty Limited completed drilling at the Company’s 75%-owned Northcote
Project on Sunday before moving to Mt Carbine.
The Mt Carbine drilling will see three targets drilled. The first target is the mineralised body beneath the
former open pit. Two diamond drillholes that are each approximately 350 metres long will be drilled from
the north-east corner of the pit through the mineralisation and pass into the South Wall Fault where the
holes will terminate. One of the drillholes will parallel an existing drillhole and the second will cross two
existing drillholes. Both drillholes will cross the projection of a number of mineralised zones mined in the
open pit.
The second target will be the No 4 tailings dam where visible scheelite mineralisation can be seen under
an ultra-violet lamp. Mine records indicate that there is approximately 2 million tonnes of tailings in this
dump. This dump will be targeted with six short drillholes.
The third target will be the reject crushed ore stockpile which contains approximately 7 million tonnes.
This dump will be targeted with a series of six short drillholes.
Yours faithfully
John Kelly
Managing Director
Republic Gold Limited
For personal use only


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## sydneysider (24 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> Ahh so there is news out.
> 
> RGL
> ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
> ...




RAU are drilling / targetting the granite "rejects" in both the tailings dam and crushed ore stockpile. This flows on from the work done by VML at neaby Watershed where they discovered significant quantities of tungsten in the granite. My understanding is that the original photometric sorting at Mt Carbine extracted most of the quartz that was the known carrier of tungsten in the area. Now RAU is targeting a reject pile probably containing significant quantities of granite of 7 million tonnes, tailings of 2 million and freah ore in the floor of the old open pit for 1 million tonnes.  

There could be very significant quantities of remaining tungsten. Assume a head grade of .075% v the old .9%  we get 16,500,000 pounds / 750,000 MTU's worth around US$180,000,000. Mining of crushed ore and tailings would be very cheap.


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## AussiePaul72 (24 September 2007)

Larger volume again today following on from a big move late in Friday's trading. IMO the announcement today in regard to drill rig commencing work at Mt Carbine isn't the reason for the increased volume and upward movement in SP.....lol !!
RAU tested the four month high of 0.043 in intra day trading a few times before settling back to 0.04 at close. Will be interesting to see whether an announcement follows soon!


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## Whiskers (24 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> IMO the announcement today in regard to drill rig commencing work at Mt Carbine isn't the reason for the increased volume and upward movement in SP.....lol !!




I'm inclined to agree AussiePaul. I suspect another lot of soil sample assays (abt 271) are due out from Whumbal West. The following extract is from the enhanced assay results announcement on 10 Sept.



> The Company submitted further samples for analysis for infill and line extension sampling at
> Whumbal West in mid-August. In the normal course of events, it would be expected that the
> results of this work would be available within 4 to 6 weeks.




Can't wait for them to surface.


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## sydneysider (25 September 2007)

Whiskers said:


> I'm inclined to agree AussiePaul. I suspect another lot of soil sample assays (abt 271) are due out from Whumbal West. The following extract is from the enhanced assay results announcement on 10 Sept.
> 
> 
> 
> Can't wait for them to surface.




There is also a second set of surface assays that are due from a number of anomalies located in the general area of Whumbal West. RAU reported them as due about three week/four weeks ago. They might have been held up after RAU were told by their consultants that the original aqua regia assays at Whumbal West were understated by about 90%. These assays are for moly, tungsten tin and possibly other metals.


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## gordon2007 (25 September 2007)

Another good day. Currently up %12.50. It is reaching highs now and yet for some reason it barely ever gets any mention on here.


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## SevenFX (25 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> Another good day. Currently up %12.50. It is reaching highs now and yet for some reason it barely ever gets any mention on here.




It did draw attention prior to market shakeup, but seems to have fallen under radar *for now*..

So many exceptional shares, may have pushed this of the stage..

SevenFX


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## explod (25 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> Another good day. Currently up %12.50. It is reaching highs now and yet for some reason it barely ever gets any mention on here.




If you can believe the reports coming through it may well be underpriced.  But due to past shennannigins by the previous management, investors are wary.  The chart would suggest something is afoot but with no announcement one should remain a bit sceptical.


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## gordon2007 (25 September 2007)

Yes I have heard and read about past problems. I also think things could be turning around. With that said, I cashed out today with a nice profit and also kept a fair few shares that are held free now. For me, this was a bit of a learning curve. I've held this one longer than any other shares I've had. I didn't panic when the market went haywire a couple of months ago. So for me, to come away with what I did I feel good about it. Good luck to anyone else holding.


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## explod (25 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> Yes I have heard and read about past problems. I also think things could be turning around. With that said, I cashed out today with a nice profit and also kept a fair few shares that are held free now. For me, this was a bit of a learning curve. I've held this one longer than any other shares I've had. I didn't panic when the market went haywire a couple of months ago. So for me, to come away with what I did I feel good about it. Good luck to anyone else holding.




Good for you on that.  You say that you ..."think things could be turning around".  Ponder this point,  it is dangerous to just think, you are playing with real money when you go into the market.  You must KNOW, have a read up on Warren Buffet the wealthiest investor in the world.  His motto, never buy something that you do not understand.  He did not get caught in the dot.com bubble because he did not understand IT, therefore had no holdings.   Stick to this to the letter and you will succeed as an investor


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## timelord (25 September 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> Yes I have heard and read about past problems. I also think things could be turning around. With that said, I cashed out today with a nice profit and also kept a fair few shares that are held free now. For me, this was a bit of a learning curve. I've held this one longer than any other shares I've had. I didn't panic when the market went haywire a couple of months ago. So for me, to come away with what I did I feel good about it. Good luck to anyone else holding.




I have cashed out today as well having been in for a few months also.  Has lots of potential and will see what evolves over the next few weeks.  Still uncertain what the market will do so wanted to at least have some cash on  the sideline.


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## AussiePaul72 (25 September 2007)

Its a shame that the boardroom interview released today was so brief with John Kelly. I'm sure many of us would have liked a range of other questions posed to John, particularly about Whumbal West analysis samples due any time now and also drilling sample results of possible new tungsten anomalies in the immediate area.
I can only presume that the big volumes since late Friday and increase in SP is a leak of this information into the market. If this is the case, at least it would appear that the news coming would be very good!!
I've been holding RAU for a couple of months now and its good to see interest and SP moving in a very positive direction as they appear to be sitting on a very promising tungsten resource at Whumbal West aswell as potential for discovery of new anomalies in the area, together with Mt Carbine and the Burraga copper/gold project.
Does anybody think RAU may get a speeding ticket shortly?  Or will they escape this because there has been a couple of announcements released this week to the ASX, even though it doesn't take Einstein to see that these announcements have nothing to do with the large volume and movement in SP?


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## Whiskers (25 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Does anybody think RAU may get a speeding ticket shortly?  Or will they escape this because there has been a couple of announcements released this week to the ASX, even though it doesn't take Einstein to see that these announcements have nothing to do with the large volume and movement in SP?




Yeah, I was thinking the same today, although I don't know the criteria, they must be getting close.

I bought the options as a short term play, but I also am going to hold for longer. I looked at getting into SDL earlier this year at about 7.5c, but left it too late. A WA newspaper broke the story that they were way undervalued and the rest is history. Early days yet, but I'm wondering whether we might have something of a similar sleeping giant when this resource is defined.


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## AussiePaul72 (25 September 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, I was thinking the same today, although I don't know the criteria, they must be getting close.
> 
> I bought the options as a short term play, but I also am going to hold for longer. I looked at getting into SDL earlier this year at about 7.5c, but left it too late. A WA newspaper broke the story that they were way undervalued and the rest is history. Early days yet, but I'm wondering whether we might have something of a similar sleeping giant when this resource is defined.




Hey Whiskers I certainly hope RAU is another sleeping giant like SDL. I got onto SDL at 23c and still hold and very happy with the current status  I bought into RAU at 3.5c and would be only to happy to see it take a similar track to SDL  I am very encouraged by RAU's current potential but way too early to get too excited yet ..... but if it comes off i'll shout :bier:


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## SevenFX (26 September 2007)

explod said:


> Warren Buffet the wealthiest investor in the world.  His motto, never buy something that you do not understand.
> 
> He did not get caught in the dot.com bubble because he did not understand IT, *therefore had no holdings*.
> 
> Stick to this to the letter and you will succeed as an investor




Needless to say he did not make any money on this dot.com boom, given how long it went for.

There is a lot of focus on how much people lost, but little focus on how much people MADE...

Guess WB is purely a fundermental trader, not technical analyst hence why he didn't enter this boom.

SevenFX


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## explod (26 September 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Needless to say he did not make any money on this dot.com boom, given how long it went for.
> 
> There is a lot of focus on how much people lost, but little focus on how much people MADE...
> 
> ...





Buffet as well as fundamental takes particular notice of trends.  When it is all stripped down, technical anaylsis has at its very core, the trend in price and volume.   What confuses is the different time frames.    When you trade/invest, taking all time frames and fundamentals together, then you can say you are approaching a WB.


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## gordon2007 (26 September 2007)

Interesting....as fast as it seems to have gone up the last few days....it's crashing back down too. Anyone else who follows this....are they aware if it was played on any other boards?


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## Whiskers (26 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> ..... but if it comes off i'll shout :bier:




I might just take you up on that AussiePaul. 

I got the options at .021. Hard to see us loosing at those prices.


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## AussiePaul72 (26 September 2007)

Whiskers said:


> I might just take you up on that AussiePaul.
> 
> I got the options at .021. Hard to see us loosing at those prices.




You would be most welcome Whiskers ...... and i agree .... hard to see things going pear shaped from the point where we jumped on board .... and now the train appears to be gaining momentum ... go you good thing!!!

RAU seemed to have a good consolidation day today IMO after its recent rapid rise. I was surprised once again that no announcement was forthcoming.....and for that matter no speeding ticket either (well that we are aware of anyway??). Drill results have got to be any day now!


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## Sean K (1 October 2007)

Looks like a more significant longer term breakout may be on the cards here. Cracking and holding above 5 cents will be very significant IMO.


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## sydneysider (1 October 2007)

kennas said:


> Looks like a more significant longer term breakout may be on the cards here. Cracking and holding above 5 cents will be very significant IMO.




This is a very intersting little "speccy" with a variety of interests. The core tenements are around Mareeba and built around a number of ex-BHP tenements (they were seeking high grade, large gold deposits). These leases are peppered with hi grade anomalies that have been mined for a variety of metals from (mainly) tin, tungsten, gold, antimony. RAU has an option over the Mt Carbine tungsten Mine which at one time was the world's largest producing tungsten mine and appox half a million ounces of gold nearby. Other assets include uranium leases in Central South Australia and copper gold in NSW.

Some of the projects have advanced significantly such as the hi grade Whumbul tungsten prospect. RAU is attracting significant interest from Asian investors and held its AGM to-day where the should have approved the issue of 60 million shares to Hong Kong and Malay investors. The Annual Report was issued this morning and it is a very interesting read. It helps to explain the bullish trend that has emerged.


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## Sean K (1 October 2007)

sydneysider said:


> It helps to explain the bullish trend that has emerged.



I would say a longer term breakout if it hold above 5 cents, but no long  trend yet. Certainly short term up trend with higher lows and highs in place...


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## sydneysider (1 October 2007)

kennas said:


> I would say a longer term breakout if it hold above 5 cents, but no long  trend yet. Certainly short term up trend with higher lows and highs in place...




Kennas i agree with u on the fact that this chart pattern does not confirm a long term uptrend. The fundamentals are a different kettle of fish. The XRF "re-assays" of the first round of soil sampling by Chemex of Brisbane, at Whumbal for tungsten pushed up the original agua regia assays by 1050%. Theses re-assays also confirmed the presence of significant amonuts of tin. 

The second round of assays was due several weeks ago and may have been subjected to a similar re-assay. These assays include tin, tungsten, antimony and gold and cover a number of large anomalies in the general Whumbal area. My sense is that the "totality" of this work is pointing to a significant number of substantial targets. This work is starting to attract Asian interest and a rising stockprice.


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## sydneysider (2 October 2007)

Some interesting tid bits from yesterday's Annual Report. RAU is in legal talks with Luzon Minerals to recover a registered charge over Luzon assets now totalling C$2,103,719 and growing at 15% pa interest. This follows on from their aborted attempt to takeover LZN. LZN has over one million ounces of hi quality gold in two projects in Bolivia AND yet its Canadian listed securities have completely collapsed to trade at 7 cents with a market cap slightly under C$4 million. 

LZN stockprice collapsed several months ago from its typical trading range around 10-12 cents and higher and at times was very well bid. Seems that the Canadian market must have got wind that RAU is attempting to collects its debt. LZN has very little cash and its two main assets are the leases that RAU was after. RAU says that the written agreement to amalgamate the two companies was illegally aborted by LZN. One of the projects is under terms from Vista Gold and LZN is under contract to produce a bankable feasibility study. RAU paid for and completed most of the BFS and is refusing LZN access until funds are repaid. 

One would assume that the demand for repayment of the unpaid C$2 million would also carry a heavier threat to seek substantial damages for the loss of the "bargain". One million ounces is a VERY substantial asset. There is comment about litigation on one of the Canadian penny stock threads but i cannot verify this other than RAU's comment about legal talks.


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## Whiskers (2 October 2007)

Hi sydneysider

I would imagine the canadian shareholders have got wind of a bad smell alright. RAU made a comment in a recent ann to the ASX that they were advised by their canadian lawyers that they had a strong case, but I have not been able to get any more information as to how things are proceeding in terms of whether Luzon is disputing that it owes RAU the money or is it that they don't have the cash to pay. 

I haven't had a thorough read of the Annual Report yet, but the impression I had was that RAU was withdrawing from those projects, because Luzon was too difficult to deal with, and focus on their Aus prospects. 

Is it your impression that RAU could, or is attempting to, acquire Luzons leases via the legal settlement, if successful?

That raises the questions:

What are the leases worth?

Does Luzon have any prospect of raising the cash to settle with RAU, if RAU wins, and keep the leases ?


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## sydneysider (2 October 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Hi sydneysider
> 
> I would imagine the canadian shareholders have got wind of a bad smell alright. RAU made a comment in a recent ann to the ASX that they were advised by their canadian lawyers that they had a strong case, but I have not been able to get any more information as to how things are proceeding in terms of whether Luzon is disputing that it owes RAU the money or is it that they don't have the cash to pay.
> 
> ...




I got the distinct impression that RAU is prepared to settle this matter by taking over at least one of the properties. In exchange RAU would turn over all of the BFS work on the Amayapampa property and discharge the debt. LZN needs the BFS work to comply with the option terms owing to Vista Gold. 

IF they let one of the properties go then they have a fighting chance of getting the shareprice higher. 

IF they dig in and fight then the stock price goes down and the Vista option will lapse and they loose the deal. 

The current miserly market valuation seems to indicate that LZN is truly between a rock and a hard place and RAU may be in the catbird seat to dicate terms. IF RAU goes to Court and wins then it will be nearly impossible for LZN to raise funds as its sole use will be to payout a C$2.1 million debt + court costs + potential damages that would probably exceed their current market cap.


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## sydneysider (3 October 2007)

To-day's report about Whumbal soil sampling indicates the following speculative conclusions (1) Soil sampling has indicated an anomaly that is about 5,000 meters long and 2,000 meters wide and is still open. This is a MASSIVE target (2) By comparison i superimposed this anomaly over the Watergarden tungsten project next door (Vital Metals 750 x 500m drilled out) AND Whumbal is ten times larger (3) The very high grade core is about 2,500 x 1,000m in size. Soil sampling at Whumbal is very extensive and very high grade whereas the earlier soil sampling at Watergarden was over a small area and much lower grade. 

Speculative conclusion is that we are onto a potential massive high grade target. Drilling starts in 2-3 weeks.


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## gordon2007 (3 October 2007)

I thought it was some good news, but the market isn't really reacting favourable to it. I wonder if the pending legal issues are still a deterrant.


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## sydneysider (3 October 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> I thought it was some good news, but the market isn't really reacting favourable to it. I wonder if the pending legal issues are still a deterrant.




The legal issue IMHO is not affecting the shareprice at this stage. The market has assigned this a nil value. HOWEVER there is some interesting stuff going on. Some months ago RAU served demands on LZN for the repayment of C$2.1 million of secured debt. Their AR says (from memory) that they are in discussions to recover this money. LZN does NOT have the money and their share price has collapsed as a result. I assume that the market in Canada anticipates a sorry result for LZN. It may be the case that RAU may be able to force LZN into bankruptcy or settlement and claim their assets/part assets in lieu of cash. That is one million ounces of high grade gold in Bolivia in two deposits with lots of extra potential.


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## gordon2007 (3 October 2007)

I understand what you're saying Sydney. But I still can't figure out why with what I thought was good news today the fall in SP. Seems to me the support level really fell today.


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## AussiePaul72 (3 October 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> I understand what you're saying Sydney. But I still can't figure out why with what I thought was good news today the fall in SP. Seems to me the support level really fell today.




I don't think there is reason to worry about the SP movement today Gordon. Fundamentals haven't changed, if anything, it has strengthened them. 
One reason for today's SP movement may have been that the announcement had already been factored into the SP on its recent strong movement up on no public news. Profit takers may have been cashing in today.
I agree with Sydneysiders comments in regard to the legal battle with LZN. By the sound of your research Sydneysider, if RAU ends up with some of the LZN gold projects in Bolivia as settlement, there may be additional upside yet to be determined from these prospects


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## dubiousinfo (3 October 2007)

sydneysider said:


> The legal issue IMHO is not affecting the shareprice at this stage. The market has assigned this a nil value. HOWEVER there is some interesting stuff going on. Some months ago RAU served demands on LZN for the repayment of C$2.1 million of secured debt. Their AR says (from memory) that they are in discussions to recover this money. LZN does NOT have the money and their share price has collapsed as a result. I assume that the market in Canada anticipates a sorry result for LZN. It may be the case that RAU may be able to force LZN into bankruptcy or settlement and claim their assets/part assets in lieu of cash. That is one million ounces of high grade gold in Bolivia in two deposits with lots of extra potential.




We dont have any details of the Vista Gold deal, although it would not surprise me if there was a clause that allowed Vista to declclare the deal void in the event of Luzon being placed into administration or receivership. This is a fairly common term included in contracts so that the surviving party is not dragged through the administration process, which can often go on for years.

This may be why RAU is stepping carefully and trying to negotiate rather than commence legal proceedings.

Holding


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## gordon2007 (10 October 2007)

It's been a bit quite here since the run up. Have noticed it's being mentioned on the possible breakout alerts.


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## gordon2007 (10 October 2007)

I may have spoken too soon. News out about some drilling and results. Could be another interesting day?


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## gordon2007 (10 October 2007)

RGL
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
10 October 2007
The Manager
Companies Announcement Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
DRILLING UPDATE – VISIBLE COPPER, GOLD AND TUNGSTEN MINERALISATION
ENCOUNTERED AT THREE PROJECTS DRILLED TO-DATE
The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces an update on its
drilling programmes. In Far North Queensland the latest phase of drilling at the Northcote Gold
Project has been completed and the drill rig is currently drilling at the Mt Carbine Tungsten
Project. In New South Wales a second drill rig is well advanced in the drilling programme at the
Burraga Copper-Gold Project
New South Wales - Burraga Copper-Gold Project
Drilling commenced at the 75%-owned Burraga Copper-Gold Project in September 2007. This
programme of 12 drillholes is testing a number of targets at and around the substantial historical
copper producer, the Lloyd’s Mine.
Exploration in the 1980’s indicated an extensive soil geochemistry anomaly associated with
geophysical features suggesting a larger mineralisation system than that mined previously. Initial
drilling at that period encountered mineralisation associated with these features and supported
the potential of the area.
Some of the current drillholes are twinning, i.e. being drilled adjacent to, old openhole percussion
drillholes from the 1980’s. Current RC and core drilling techniques are considered to provide a
better sample than earlier openhole techniques, so the new drillholes are being used as a check
on the older drillholes
Drilling on the current programme is expected to be completed in the next week.
Visible copper mineralisation has been reported from the field in a number of drillholes and
importantly, previously unknown zones have been intersected away from the historical mine itself.
Final analysis results will be available over the next 6-8 weeks.
Far North Queensland - Northcote Gold Project
Drilling has been completed at the 75%-owned Northcote Gold Project.
Drilling was in the vicinity of the East Leadingham deposit, the highest grade gold deposit located
on the site. Current programme drillholes intersected the main East Leadingham structure and a
structure further to the east. Visible mineralisation has been encountered in many of the
drillholes.
For personal use only


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## sydneysider (10 October 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> RGL
> ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
> 10 October 2007
> The Manager
> ...




These are very encouraging results. The Northcote gold drilling is getting very interesting IF they are getting visible gold in the core then it is much more than just a few grams per tonne AND it is shallow where they expected nothing AND it was encountered in "many" of the drill holes. This increases the grade, quantity of gold and the economics. Very good news.


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## gordon2007 (10 October 2007)

I must get that book that YT has suggested, something about valuating mines. Believe it was written by a victor or something. I shall look back and find it.


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## Whiskers (10 October 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> I must get that book that YT has suggested, something about valuating mines. Believe it was written by a victor or something. I shall look back and find it.




It may be a bit early to start calculating resource estimates, but it would be nice to get some drawings or photo overlays with the next results to get some mental idea of the sort of project sizes they are talking about.


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## Purd2 (10 October 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> I must get that book that YT has suggested, something about valuating mines. Believe it was written by a victor or something. I shall look back and find it.




I did a google for you...got me interested too!

Amazon.com: The Mining Valuation Handbook: Books: Victor RudennoThe Mining Valuation Handbook (Paperback) by Victor Rudenno (Author) ... Valuing Mining Companies: A Guide to the Assessment and Evaluation of Assets, ...
www.amazon.com/ Mining-Valuation-Handbook-Victor-Rudenno/dp/1875857818 - 123k -


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## Joe Blow (10 October 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> I must get that book that YT has suggested, something about valuating mines. Believe it was written by a victor or something. I shall look back and find it.






Purd2 said:


> I did a google for you...got me interested too!
> 
> Amazon.com: The Mining Valuation Handbook: Books: Victor RudennoThe Mining Valuation Handbook (Paperback) by Victor Rudenno (Author) ... Valuing Mining Companies: A Guide to the Assessment and Evaluation of Assets, ...
> www.amazon.com/ Mining-Valuation-Handbook-Victor-Rudenno/dp/1875857818 - 123k -




Guys, like most stock market related books, you can find this one at the ASF Investment Shop: http://www.moneybags.com.au/default.asp?d=0&t=1&id=2716&c=0&a=74


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## gordon2007 (10 October 2007)

Or perhaps Young Trader is hocking it on EBAY :iamwithst

Just kidding YT. Joe....thanks for the heads up.


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## SevenFX (12 October 2007)

RAU seems to be running Nicely... UP 12% (EDIT: make that 18%)

Where the sellers are holding stongly, while the buyers are chasing. atm...

Cheers
SevenFX


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## dubiousinfo (12 October 2007)

The opies have now lost all the  previous premium to the heads and are currently trading at parity..


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## SevenFX (12 October 2007)

dubiousinfo said:


> The opies have now lost all the  previous premium to the heads and are currently trading at parity..




Sorry DubiousInfo.

New to options (oppies) so can you explain what you mean, and why it would loose premium if they're gone up (heads..???)

Thanks
SevenFX


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## mr_delta (12 October 2007)

RAU looks happy today...hit 5.8c...if it closes above the resistance of 5.3c today it will be game on IMO....too many positives out here...market is realising the potential of RAU now


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## gordon2007 (12 October 2007)

arrrhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh darn darn darn. 

I just went back into this yesterday and day traded it. Frig when am I going to learn.


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## jonojpsg (12 October 2007)

Have to say I'm happy with this one!  Thanks for all the FA that people have posted on RAU - I for one am an FA man in preference to TA.  I would have to agree that a company with the *potential* resources that RAU has *seems* to be a bargain at $20m market cap.  Have been buying in from .037 up till yesterday at .047


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## Caliente (12 October 2007)

At a 2.5 exercise price, the total option value = 3.3 cents + 2.5 cents = 5.8cents. As the head price is also at approximately that level, the options are trading at parity.


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## SevenFX (12 October 2007)

Caliente said:


> At a 2.5 exercise price, the total option value = 3.3 cents + 2.5 cents = 5.8cents. As the head price is also at approximately that level, the options are trading at parity.




Thanks Caliente.

Made perfect sense the way you explained it.

So can you just REsell the option b4 expiry and not exercise the option (hence not taking ownership of the underlying stock)... just profiting in the option buy/sell price

EDIT: Also are these oppies only released on float, as I couldn;t find them on asx page.

Thanks Again


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## Whiskers (12 October 2007)

SevenFX said:


> So can you just REsell the option b4 expiry and not exercise the option (hence not taking ownership of the underlying stock)... just profiting in the option buy/sell price
> 
> EDIT: Also are these oppies only released on float, as I couldn;t find them on asx page.
> 
> Thanks Again




Hi SevenFX

The code is RAUO and you trade them just like a share. You can get their exercise price and expiry date from the financial report, website or share registry.

I'd say you made a good buy and just in time. Good Luck.

Options can be issued by the company at any time.


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## SevenFX (12 October 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Hi SevenFX
> 
> The code is RAUO and you trade them just like a share. You can get their exercise price and expiry date from the financial report, website or share registry.
> 
> ...




Meaw Whiskers..

I wish I had oppies in these, as I've always bought and unfortunately sold the physical stock, hence didn't hold any on surge today.

Though interested to hold oppies instead, with longer expiry dates on these speckies...???

So can you REsell the oppies instead of exercising them...

Thanks
SevenFX


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## dubiousinfo (12 October 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Sorry DubiousInfo.
> 
> New to options (oppies) so can you explain what you mean, and why it would loose premium if they're gone up (heads..???)
> 
> ...




Sorry Tek was in meetings all afternoon, but Caliente did a good job of explaining it. I will just add a little more.

The options we are discussing for RAU are company issued options, these are different to exchange traded options (ETO’s).

The options for RAU have the code RAUO and can be bought and sold the same as shares, you don’t need a special account. They can be traded up to 1 week prior to the exercise date, from that time the only alternative is to exercise them, or let them expire worthless.

The options for each company have their own specific exercise price and expiry date. RAUO exercise price is 2.5c and the expiry date is 30 Nov 08.  Which means for each option held, the holder can pay 2.5c to the company and convert the option into 1 fully paid ordinary share.  This can be done any time up to the expiry date. There is no obligation to exercise the option, however, any options that are not exercised by the exercise date are cancelled and become worthless.

The price of options RAUO (3.3c)  consist of 2 parts, intrinsic value and extrinsic value, or premium as some refer to it.

The intrinsic value for RAUO is the SP of the shares (RAU ) less the exercise price. At closing today, this was 5.6c – 2.5c =  3.1c

The extrinsic value for RAUO is the price of the option (3.3c) less the intrinsic value 3.3c – 3.1c = 0.2c premium

When they are at parity, there is no extrinsic value, only intrinsic value. Generally these types of options will have a fair degree of extrinsic value or premium. 

Take LML for example, SP of 33c and option LMLO with an exercise price of 30c and expiry on 30 June 2010.  LMLO traded today at 14c, so the intrinsic value for LMLO is the SP of the shares (LML ) less the exercise price. At closing today, this was 33c – 30c =  3c  The extrinsic value is the price of the option less the intrinsic value 14c – 3c = 11c. So LMLO has a high extrinsic value, or premium.

Extrinsic value is made up of a number of things including time value.

As the time to expiry gets closer, the extrinsic value will drop until the option and heads are trading at parity. Its not quite that simple, but you get the picture.

The options for RAU still have a year to expiry, so with such a small premium, I would consider them cheap when compared to the heads. Back in August/September the premium was around 1.5c to 2c.

Hope this helps.


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## AussiePaul72 (14 October 2007)

G'day All,
I got on RAU a few months ago and am very pleased with the way things are going. We are really starting to see the SP move now and not on any particular news release, i think more due to the market discovering the potential of RAU. i'm strongly considering increasing my stake as i think there is a lot of upside.
However, I'd like to ask ASF members who have been following RAU a few questions:
(1) Where do you think the SP could be by end of this year and why? Could we see 10c?
(2) Where do you see the SP by end of 2008?
(3) What is the most likely outcome of the LZN dispute and will it have an effect on RAU's developments and therefore SP? (in my opinion i think the dispute has already been factored in and if there is anything that comes out of it, it can really only be positive upside for RAU....but thats just MHO)


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## SevenFX (15 October 2007)

Thanks for the replies Dubiousinfo, Whiskas & Candilite...

Clears thinks up. :

Appreciated
SevenFX


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## dubiousinfo (15 October 2007)

The opies are at a discount of 0.5c to the heads today.  That was too cheap for me and had to get some more.


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## gordon2007 (15 October 2007)

Having a rather nice run again today. Up 25%   I still own some shares that are no free but wish I hadn't sold all the others.


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## jonojpsg (15 October 2007)

Very interesting to watch this trade today - a good example of the law of supply and demand.  As there is only around 1.5m shares being offered for sale and people want to buy them, the price people are willing to pay just keeps rising - currently 8c (up 40% ) Nice to be on a winner


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## Risky Trader (15 October 2007)

Can anyone speculate what is the secret ingredients behind the SP jump? Striking more gold? 

Thanks


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## Sean K (15 October 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> Can anyone speculate what is the secret ingredients behind the SP jump? Striking more gold?
> 
> Thanks



There are some fundamentals with this stock, so I do not want to take away from that, but there seems to be a lot of momentum trading going on at the minute. There's been $$ sitting on the sides waiting for direction and the direction is UP. Ups finish in downs. Be a boy scout.


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## Whiskers (15 October 2007)

Well, that was an interesting day.  I inadvertantly missed todays trading, but I had a sell order for my opies hanging in the market and adjusting them upwards in case the market had a rush of blood one day. I moved the sell up to 6c late last week and blow me down, I see the market just took them out today. 

I'm not sure whether to be  or  that I didn't catch the market today and lift my sell price. I guess I'm hoping it was an aberation and they overcorrect a bit so I can get onboard again.  :

I see the company got a speeding notice and replied that they had nothing to report, so what is happening. Huge volume. 

Has anyone analyised the buyers? 

Is there a suiter on the prowl?


----------



## sydneysider (15 October 2007)

kennas said:


> There are some fundamentals with this stock, so I do not want to take away from that, but there seems to be a lot of momentum trading going on at the minute. There's been $$ sitting on the sides waiting for direction and the direction is UP. Ups finish in downs. Be a boy scout.




Kennas, the "momentum" trading has been underway for four months...suspect that it is not momentum / day traders here but mahjong players? get my drift? The chart certainly looks good. RAU also announced visible metal in their cores at three different projects...too much going on to stay down.


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## Risky Trader (16 October 2007)

Bad news?

With the prices enquiry from the ASX.. it seem that it will take the steam out of RAU.. .. very unfortunate.


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## AussiePaul72 (16 October 2007)

I may be completely wrong but i thought today was a very good consolidation day for RAU.
After a previous close of 8.1c, it opened today down at 7.3c and went as low as 7c (maybe due to the XAO being down as a flow on effect from the Dow being down significantly last night). However, it recovered the loss quickly and touched 9c well within the first hour of trading.
I think the most encouraging thing was that for the majority of the rest of the day the trading was consistently waivering in the low 8c range which was very good consolidation IMHO considering such a steep rise yesterday and a day where the XAO was down by as much as 80+ points at one stage and finished the day down 40 points.
I'd really like to know what has triggered the huge run this week. I agree with Sydneysider that it has shown good gains over the last months on some good fundamentals. Is it just that the market has become aware of RAU and (like me) considered it undervalued? And are we now seeing as a result of some big investors getting in on RAU .....a snowball effect with RAU now on many investors screens?
There was another possibility that crossed my mind as to the rapid rise this week in the SP. Does anyone know (Sydneysider???) if the case with LZN is any closer to being resolved? If LZN can only resolve by passing some of their projects on to RAU as settlement then this would obviously add value to RAU. If i recall correctly, i think Sydneysider stated that LZN had some highly prospective gold projects.
I'm holding and was considering buying more as noted in my post on the weekend and soooooooo wish i had bought more first thing Monday morning 
However, i am very pleased to be aboard!


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## Whiskers (16 October 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> I may be completely wrong but i thought today was a very good consolidation day for RAU.
> 
> I'd really like to know what has triggered the huge run this week.




Yeah I thought it held quite well too. It looks like someone buying up big or a lot of buyers coincidently buying at the same time on no news. 

I'm rather hoping for a bit of a market correction soon so I can get back on board again at a good price, since I left an order hanging in the market for my opies which got taken out at 6c. 

Nearly tempted to get them back again at 5.1c this arvo, but I think the US market will fall back a bit later in the week and take us with it.


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## sydneysider (17 October 2007)

RAU continues to run extremely bullishly and hit a nu hi at 9.3 earlier this morning. I have published below a 10 day chart with 15 minute counts. The "break-out" move to 9.3 was on the highest volumes in RAU history. Remember that "volume goes with trend".


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## Purd2 (17 October 2007)

A most erudite poster from another forum posted this:

RAU just keeps on going. Has now hit 10c.

So among the things that interest me:

1. From the potentially large copper/gold play at Burraga, NSW, covering the old Lloyds Mine and surrounds from the fact that:

"Visible copper mineralisation has been reported from the field in a number of drillholes and importantly, previously unknown zones have been intersected away from the historical mine itself...."

What interests me IS: 

1. What are the grades?
2. What are the width of these intersections?

Should there be any wide, high grade intersections then I think we will really be off to the races. 

Particularly as RAU reported last month about the mineralisation on their lease:

"The mineralisation is hydrothermal Cu-Au style with a suggested deeper porphyry intrusive source, similar to most of the major discoveries in NSW over the last 20 years." 

2. RAU has access to the BHP data base and so has access to the initial sampling results of Vital Metals emerging world class tungsten discovery. RAU has reported that the sampling results on RAU's ground surrounding Vital Metals discovery are superior. 

Are we going to see what seems the logical follow up - superior drilling results from RAU? 

3. Then of course there is the old Mount Carbine mine, closed due to the depressed prices at the time about 20 years ago. 

Has RAU's recent drilling given RAU confidence that there are plenty of easy to access, cheap to mine resources still there?

4. Then let us not forget about RAU's 500,000 plus ounces of gold. RAU are very confident this resource can be increased and will be very profitable at current prices. 

Plus let's not forget our overseas investor friends with financial backing who recently took a placement in RAU.

Thank you to Siamese Parrot....great post!


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## gordon2007 (19 October 2007)

Any thoughts on what todays dump was about? Normal market correction? Was it a good buying oppurtunity?


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## alankew (19 October 2007)

Sold mine earlier in the day but not at the topMy own personal feelings and watching the trades as much as i could,the trades were  mainly smaller parcels(100k ish with the odd 1Mill)but still within the realms of the ordinary punter.It has also had an incredible run(especially the options were i was)and its never wrong to lock in a profit.Add to that the nervousness surrounding the Dow and its was a pretty good reason to sell for me personally


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## iamtrueblue (20 October 2007)

Hello all. Any thoughts on RAU as where it will go now?? Would like to hear from some thoughts from of the more established traders who are just monitoring this thread. Kennas any thoughts.  

These are my thoughts. The pull back would be expected given the extreme run it has so far. Also a number of traders would cash out at the end of the week. Further I believe the all ords was in deep red and a had traders buying in late at upper ends of 10C to 12c causing selling due to unsureness. I would have thought this expected to happen. I brought in at 3.7cents and believe this stock may have big potential given other minesook the worth of the old OLD  want to let this run a bit more. 

This stock has a potentially large copper/gold investment at Burraga, NSW, covering the Old Lloyd Mine and surrounds which RAU have recently reported to the ASX

Visible copper mineralisation has been reported from the field in a number of drillholes and importantly, previously unknown zones have been intersected away from the historical mine.

The heavy asian investment is interesting they are pretty careful investors in this field.  

The repots show that Visible copper mineralisation and importantly, previously unknown zones have been intersected. 

The mineralisation is hydrothermal Cu-Au style with a suggested deeper porphyry intrusive source, similar to most of the major discoveries in NSW. 

There is a possibility that RAU are on to something substantial. Hopefully we will know more when some drilling results are released. 

It will be intersting to find out the grades and the width of the intersections?

It is not surprising given all that is going on with RAU that the trading volume is high on this spec stock and we see a rapid rise. My only concern here is the DOW and another major correction and ay thoughts on that would alos be interesting in regards to how it may affect this stock?


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## sydneysider (23 October 2007)

iamtrueblue said:


> Hello all. Any thoughts on RAU as where it will go now?? Would like to hear from some thoughts from of the more established traders who are just monitoring this thread. Kennas any thoughts.
> 
> These are my thoughts. The pull back would be expected given the extreme run it has so far. Also a number of traders would cash out at the end of the week. Further I believe the all ords was in deep red and a had traders buying in late at upper ends of 10C to 12c causing selling due to unsureness. I would have thought this expected to happen. I brought in at 3.7cents and believe this stock may have big potential given other minesook the worth of the old OLD  want to let this run a bit more.
> 
> ...




Lots of folk now following RAU and IMHO the Asian connection is manifest in the big turnovers in daily trading. The fundamentals are very interesting and have been repeated on this thread, so no need to rehash. The technicals look very bright. The retracement from the stellar run now looks like it had a bottom yesterday and the nu buyers are munching away on the profit takers at 9.9 and 10 cents. I have duplicated an hourly chart over the last ten days that clearly shows that some indicators are now turning positive, MACD, Stochastics and price is trending upwards


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## Spaghetti (23 October 2007)

When I first jumped on this stock someone was buying huge, really huge ie accumulating. The volumes in the depth were not so large. They could buy out numerous lines in one hit. I am not sure if this big accumulator is still around as the massive volumes now drown out such activity and also the affect of such activity. So whatever he may or may not do now will not affect the s/p as before. It is possible the accumulator does show his prescence when the s/p drop to the low .09,s as soon as there is a sunstantial price drop it just comes back again to about .10.


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## gordon2007 (24 October 2007)

Wow that was a massive crapola dump today. Wonder what that was all about. Any thoughts? I havne't seen any news come out.


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## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

I believe this slump relates to the news on New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co. will probably add $2.5 billion more in writedowns in the wake of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. 

This also caused the ASX slumped this afternoon.

Cheers


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## SevenFX (1 November 2007)

Announcements 
Date Time # pages Mkt Sensitive Description  

31/10/2007 6:43PM 1  Boardroom radio presentation http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20071031/pdf/00778216.pdf

31/10/2007 10:17AM 17  Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Reports end 30 Sept 2007 
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20071031/pdf/00777229.pdf

SevenFX


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## AussiePaul72 (3 November 2007)

From the drilling update announcement and boardroom radio interview with John Kelly, there is exciting times ahead for RAU.

There are many announcements that will be flowing through Nov & Dec that were outlined in todays announcement:

*Northcote Gold Project* (75% owned) - Last 6 drillhole results expected *1st/2nd week Nov*

*Barraga Copper-Gold Project* (75% owned) - 3 drillhole results expected *1st/2nd week Nov* & other 5 drillhole results expected *3rd/4th week Nov*

*Mt Carbine Tungsten Project* (Option to Purchase) - 8 drillhole assay results expected *late Nov*

*Whumbal West Tungsten Project* (100% owned) - 3 drillhole results expected *late Nov/early Dec*, remaining drilling to be completed next week

*Tregoora Gold Project* (100% owned) - Drilling will commence *next week*

Even though it wasn't stated in the drilling update, i would expect the remaining drillhole results for Whumbal West and drilling results for Tregoora to be expected in the period mid Dec through to mid Jan.

So a lot of potentially exciting results to be delivered between now and early in the new year. I topped up with some more earlier today at 0.088. Good luck all and DYOR (but its all laid out in the drilling update today and it was very plain to me the excitement in John Kelly's voice in the boardroom interview)


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## imaginator (5 November 2007)

Will this new announcement still push the price up more? 
It opened at 0.096 today, high of 0.105. 
Lots of volume. Looking good.

When do you think will we see 0.2?

Are you guys cashing out at 0.1 already or holding ???


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## Whiskers (5 November 2007)

I hold opies, toped up a few when they dipped to 4.5c a few days ago. The sellers are drying up for opies. 

Shares up 1 cent and opies up 2c.

What would they have done if we had the XAO and XMJ going in the positive!


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## AussiePaul72 (5 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Will this new announcement still push the price up more?
> It opened at 0.096 today, high of 0.105.
> Lots of volume. Looking good.
> 
> ...




Hi Imaginator ..... you'd be a game man to put money on when RAU is going to hit 20c!! The way its going we may even see it before the end of the year with some good drilling results. There is definitely a lot of interest in RAU now and if the announcements are positive anything could happen!!
Personally i am accumulating and holding. I first got on at 3.5c and just as i was considering accumulating some more the SP went almost vertical. I have waited for it to settle and decided to accumulate more last Friday at 8.8c with the drilling update announcement released and before the SP went on another big run.
The next couple of months will see many announcements released in regard to drilling results from most projects (see my previous post for list of upcoming announcements). There hasn't been a drilling result announcement yet since the update last Friday and the SP has already shot up over 20% since Friday to close at 11c today after 2 days where the market fell significantly on both days.
Please do your own research but IMHO there is lots of upside to this stock


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## Sean K (6 November 2007)

RAU looking like it's going to break up from what might be seen as a pole and pennant. Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break from the pennant. Just depends on your judgement of where the pole starts and finishes and where the break is....

(just probabilities, not certainties)


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## sydneysider (6 November 2007)

kennas said:


> RAU looking like it's going to break up from what might be seen as a pole and pennant. Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break from the pennant. Just depends on your judgement of where the pole starts and finishes and where the break is....
> 
> (just probabilities, not certainties)




16 cents projection, from 5 to 12 cents (speculatively speaking). Made a substantial placement this morning IMHO getting major support from Asian investors who may also be buying on market. Good luck to all longs


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## imaginator (6 November 2007)

kennas said:


> RAU looking like it's going to break up from what might be seen as a pole and pennant. Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break from the pennant. Just depends on your judgement of where the pole starts and finishes and where the break is....
> 
> (just probabilities, not certainties)




Hi Kennas, can you please explain what pole and pennant is, and what you mean by "Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break of the pennant".?


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## sydneysider (6 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Hi Kennas, can you please explain what pole and pennant is, and what you mean by "Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break of the pennant".?




Technical talk for a major eruption / re-evaluation of the share price. Stocks typically pause in the middle of a run and the weak bulls flee IF there is enough buying power then the stocks climbs above its previous hi..which just happened at 13.5. U can then measure the first run which went from 5 to 12.5 a distance of 7.5 cents. U then add this count to the "break point" at 9 cents, so 7.5 + 9 = 16.5 cents. This break has to come on substantial volume, we are around 43,000,000 at 13.5 so that certainly qualfies. I have printed a copy of a 10 day chart measured at 15 minute intervals where u cann see the very steady hi volume push from below 9 cents. Notice that it has gapped when it took off three days ago, this is a very bullish signal on a run.


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## Whiskers (6 November 2007)

sydneysider said:


> 16 cents projection, from 5 to 12 cents (speculatively speaking). Made a substantial placement this morning IMHO getting major support from Asian investors who may also be buying on market. Good luck to all longs




Thats about what I figured too sydneysider, and they are hireing another top class geologist too by the second ann. It seemed the market took a bit of an indifferent attitude to the placement at first as the price dropped back a bit, but since it stated it was to purchase the Mt Carbine project, and with the second ann engaging another geogolist, they started coming around in numbers.

I had a sell order hanging in there for some of my opies at 8.7c, to take a bit of profit, but this morning I frantically had another look at the chart and moved the price up to 10c... then pondered things a bit more jumped it up to 14c. The way things are going that could go in a day or two. 

Thanks for the chart and confirmation Kennas. It's always good to have some confirmation in volitile times.


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## wildmanchris (6 November 2007)

Question re the options on RAU - what is the option exercise price and what is the exercise date for the parcels on issue?


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## Whiskers (6 November 2007)

wildmanchris said:


> Question re the options on RAU - what is the option exercise price and what is the exercise date for the parcels on issue?




The listed options are RAUO with exercise price of 2.5c by 30 November 2008.

There are a number of unlisted options also. The most recent Appendix 3B will have the option details. Alternatively, the quarterly financial statement will have them at the end of the statement.


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## windyday (6 November 2007)

Hi

I am new for trading. Now the RAUO is trading at 10c/10.5c. What does it mean when the exercise price is 2.5 c at the end of this month for the trading price right now?

Thanks


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## Sean K (6 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Hi Kennas, can you please explain what pole and pennant is, and what you mean by "Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break of the pennant".?



For more info go to chartschool. I think this site is pretty good at explaining some of the basics of TA. Follow the links to find more detail. Cheers, kennas


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## Whiskers (6 November 2007)

windyday said:


> Hi
> 
> I am new for trading. Now the RAUO is trading at 10c/10.5c. What does it mean when the exercise price is 2.5 c at the end of this month for the trading price right now?
> 
> Thanks




Hi windyway

The exercise date is next year, November *2008*.

All it means is that you have an option to buy (convert to) a full ordinary share with the payment to the company of 2.5c per share. How it generally works is subtract the exercise price from the current share price to work out what the option is worth. 

There is a qualification to that. If the exercise price is well into the future and the company assets and or income are solid and expected to grow, sometimes the option + exercise price may be more than the current share price. Conversely, if the assets and or income is not looking good or there is not much time left in the option, the option price + exercise price may be less than the current share price.

It's a bit of a risk, but it can give you more leverage into the company if you buy the options before the company starts to do well. On the other hand if you happen to buy the options and the share price falls below the exercise price by the exercise date they virtually become worthless.


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## windyday (6 November 2007)

Hi Whiskers,

Thanks for your explanation. The company just only said it is going to be good one - but it seems the sp is up so much. What is the real value here for this stock? if the result is good then the sp will be more than 20c ???? Should I wait and see 

Cheers


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## Sean K (6 November 2007)

windyday said:


> if the result is good then the sp will be more than 20c ????



windyway, please ensure that if you nominate any target that you provide some rationale. Why should the 'good' results end up with more than 20cents? Cheers, kennas


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## Whiskers (6 November 2007)

Well, that was another solid performance on not too much at all. It was a bit of a hairy start just after the ann, when about 20m shares or 1/3 of the days volume traded from 12c on the way down to 8.8c and back again, but finished on a bit of a kick. The question is whether this is indicitive of buyers queing up again in the morning in expectation of more news, or whether they will go away over night.



windyday said:


> Hi Whiskers,
> What is the real value here for this stock? if the result is good then the sp will be more than 20c ???? Should I wait and see
> Cheers




That's the $64 question windayday. If I new the answer I wouldn't be wondering whether I should have sold today or tomorrow or not at all. I will have another look at all the data again tonight and see what transpires first thing in the morning. 

That's why they call them speculative stocks. Unlike blue chips that have earnings and dividend records etc that you can use as a barometer, all one can do at this stage of the company development is speculate about what might be. 

The best you can do is follow the stock, read all the announcements, get an understanding of the company and the people behind it, do some maths and study some charting etc like kennas and sydneysider outlined above and if you feel comfortable invest, if not don't.

Sometimes you will get some that really do well, most stagger around for a few years before they come good or go bust or get taken over and sometimes just when you think you have a little gem, it turns out to be smoke and mirrors or runs into a heap of troubles and falls in a big heap.

My golden rule is do your research, weigh up the risk and reward to decide how much you are prepared to risk. For example I watch numerous stocks at any one time, sometimes for months before I decide to buy, and sometimes I hold for a year waiting for them to come good (or not).


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## windyday (6 November 2007)

Hi Whiskers, 

Thanks for your input. I will take your input to think and learn seriously. 

Hi kennas,
This is the first time I have stock that jumps more than 30% in a few hours. For 20 cents, I just guess - no reason.  
Other stocks I have - moving up and down by less than 5%. This is new experience and I hope this is a good one too. 

Cheers

it is really nice to have forum so, we can get someone to talk to...
God saves this forum then...


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## Sean K (7 November 2007)

kennas said:


> RAU looking like it's going to break up from what might be seen as a pole and pennant. Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break from the pennant. Just depends on your judgement of where the pole starts and finishes and where the break is....
> 
> (just probabilities, not certainties)



I hate it when I see these things and don't commit. 

Hope you other guys are enjoying the break...


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## imaginator (7 November 2007)

Hey I see a cross at the top. 

Is that a sell trigger?

Today the price was 0.16, then its 0.14 now.

Anyone see it may go 0.2 or retrace back to a support?


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## Whiskers (7 November 2007)

kennas said:


> I hate it when I see these things and don't commit.
> 
> Hope you other guys are enjoying the break...




So far so good kennas. 

But it's testing times controlling the impulses and trying to rationalise out the best way to go. Last kick I traded the cycle and got away with it nicely. Not sure if I will try it again cos I'm thinking maybe it will not settle back this time with so much news expected. 

The other side of the coin is as you would know, sometimes good initial soil samples turn out to be precious little when it is drilled, but although the MD is pumping out the news, and despite my bit of a loss of confidence in the company when the Luzon deal went sour, my gut feeling so far is pretty good.

I still worry a bit about the degree of Aisian investors and whether they are working of similar values to me or more inflated 'Chinese' style valuations.


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## Whiskers (8 November 2007)

Well, I decided to cash in and take my profit again. I reckon the XAO is trending down on the weekly chart and I was feeling nervous about the Dow.

By early afternoon it was becoming apparent that volume was falling off and the most likely candle formation was somewhere between a symmetrical Doji and a Hanging Man. If the market fell off a bit as I was expecting it was probably going to be the second leg of an Evening Star. All things considered it looked like it had hit a top for now so if I took my profit again, as I figured there was a better than even chance that it would come back a little.


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## Superfly (8 November 2007)

First post for this newbie....

Just wanted to send my thanks to Sydneysider on this stock... bought in large for me, under 3.4c months ago. Holding my breath on this one... been following ASF for about a year, and it really helps get an insight for the likes of myself. 
Wow....waiting on these upcoming drill results & Mt Carbine...

Sawasdee to all...


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## razsta (8 November 2007)

Hey,

Im a uni student who has always been intrested in the stock market but did not have the knowlege and more importantly the capital to get started until Jan this year. I took a look several sub 5c companies. Cheap to play around with. RAU looked the most attractive and recently has turned out to be a great start to this game. 

Thanks to RAU and its activity this year like its renouncable share offer back around April/MAy or so and reading what you guys have had to say objectively as possible. I have learnt so much in the last 6 months. But I am still trying to learn as much as I can and want to ask a question related to recent oil prices.

Does a high oil price effect gold? If so how will it fair with Republic? Or will there be no relation whatsoever? Or may it effect the market generaly in turn having an effect on RAU?

I am in no rush with this company and since this is not my living yet. I think this one might be a good one to hold on for a while.

Cheers

From a cautiously optimistic first time investor


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## Sean K (8 November 2007)

razsta said:


> Does a high oil price effect gold? If so how will it fair with Republic? Or will there be no relation whatsoever? Or may it effect the market generaly in turn having an effect on RAU?



Higher POO increases inflation causing interest rates to rise. POG appreciates as gold is bought as a hedge against inflation. All things being equal, gold shares should also eventually go up with rising POG. However, not all shares are equal...


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## imaginator (8 November 2007)

Looks like RAU is going up even today. Support of 0.14? 

It is 0.155 now on a red ASX day. Good stuff.

Does anyone know are there anymore reports coming out soon?


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## alankew (8 November 2007)

Taken from another board,person spoke to someone at the company who told him results were due Friday so would expect some nervous sellers but also peole awaiting results and maybe even buying


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## imaginator (9 November 2007)

Guys,

A director (newly appointed?) bought 45,000 units of RAU today.

Is that indicating something, or perhaps he's a new director just gotto buy some?

Anybody know anythign about this?


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## SevenFX (9 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> A director (newly appointed?) bought 45,000 units of RAU today.?




Thats only $7200 bucks, and say tis loose change for them.... so not reading much into it... unless more parcels are bought.

Don't see much more of a rise and perhaps see bit of a pullback

SevenFX


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## imaginator (9 November 2007)

Appendix: they are releasing new issues at 0.23 - 0.3 cents

Is that good news or not so good news?


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## rub92me (9 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Appendix: they are releasing new issues at 0.23 - 0.3 cents
> 
> Is that good news or not so good news?



Neither good news nor bad news. It's just an exercise of options, for which they need to issue shares.


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## jacko1986 (10 November 2007)

hi guys, i'm a newbie here and i was monitoring the progress of rau when it was at its low of 3.9 cents and at that time was pondering over purchasing it but was taken a back by the Luzon deal but my oh my, i have to hit myself hard enough now when i see its share price at 0.16 today. I think this company has potential and does anyone here thinks that it's a bit too late to enter the fray now? From my own research, which is not that professional, I reckon it could go all the way up to some way near 0.3 cents with the backing of foreign investors. But that also depends on the success of their projects and drilling report.


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## Sean K (10 November 2007)

jacko1986 said:


> hi guys, i'm a newbie here and i was monitoring the progress of rau when it was at its low of 3.9 cents and at that time was pondering over purchasing it but was taken a back by the Luzon deal but my oh my, i have to hit myself hard enough now when i see its share price at 0.16 today. I think this company has potential and does anyone here thinks that it's a bit too late to enter the fray now? From my own research, which is not that professional, I reckon it could go all the way up to some way near 0.3 cents with the backing of foreign investors. But that also depends on the success of their projects and drilling report.



jacko, welcome. No one can tell you when to buy or sell here, just what they think a company might be worth. Your research has it at 30 cents? How do you come to that target? Perhaps if you post up the info we can attempt to dissect it and see if your analysis and assumptions are valid. Cheers, kennas


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## jacko1986 (10 November 2007)

thx kennas for the warm welcome.

I see the share price soaring to some where near 0.3 cents because:

1. With the devaluation of the US dollar and the concerns surrounding it, the demand for gold will definitely increase and the last I checked the gold price has soared to USD 832/ounce with experts predicting it to reach USD 880-890/ounce.

2. The confidence shown by the foreign investors indicates that the company might have some "goods" up its sleeve that is yet to be announced. I think those foreign investors are not "no brainers" to simply put their money on a company.

3. The drilling report for Mt. Carbine and if this project turns out to be succesful, it will be the key for the soaring of the share price.

Hope my amateur-ish analysis is not too amateur. thank you.


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## AussiePaul72 (10 November 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> From the drilling update announcement and boardroom radio interview with John Kelly, there is exciting times ahead for RAU.
> 
> There are many announcements that will be flowing through Nov & Dec that were outlined in todays announcement:
> 
> ...




Well ..... RAU just continues to have an amazing run .... what a gem! ....we haven't even seen any of the above listed drilling result yet this month and since i topped up last Friday its gone up almost another 80%. Gotta be happy with that  It will be interesting to see how the market responds to the drilling results and whether some of the upside may have already been factored in.
Seeing as we didn't see any drill results last week, it would seem that there are two sets of drilling results due this coming week. These are from the Northcote Gold Project and also from Barraga Copper-Gold Project. Good luck to all fellow holders of RAU! Here's to another very interesting week ahead for RAU


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## Whiskers (10 November 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Well ..... RAU just continues to have an amazing run .... what a gem! ....we haven't even seen any of the above listed drilling result yet this month and since i topped up last Friday its gone up almost another 80%. Gotta be happy with that  It will be interesting to see how the market responds to the drilling results and whether some of the upside may have already been factored in.
> Seeing as we didn't see any drill results last week, it would seem that there are two sets of drilling results due this coming week. These are from the Northcote Gold Project and also from Barraga Copper-Gold Project. Good luck to all fellow holders of RAU! Here's to another very interesting week ahead for RAU




It sure has been a solid performance, AussiePaul.

It gained a tad more since I took my profit. But mind you I'm ready to get back in pretty smartly. My main concern as you hint to, is what is the valuation going to be when the drill results come out, cos they have more than 597m shares and 214m options in the money and if exercised worth abt$6.5m to the company. 

As I noted earlier, with a lot of Aisian investers jumping on board and my concern about their valuations relative to ours, I wondered if the price might fall just as spectactularly if either the market crashed or the results were not up to expectations. 

I obviously had to take a best guess as to when the drill results would be out, and anticipating a correction if not another mini crash in the market I chickened out and took my profits.

I'm thinking monday should be a pretty subdued day unless some results come out, by the way the FTSE and Dow finished last week.


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## RP_Automotive (12 November 2007)

up 2c and looking pretty solid there. I'm really hoping for some drill results soon. Its certinally an interesting ride.


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## wildmanchris (12 November 2007)

Agree interesting.  I didnt think it would run this far, and am a bit worried that is has gone too far too fast.

Does anyone think that average drill results could result in a pullback?


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## mr_delta (13 November 2007)

20c milestone reached today at 10.50 am.....guys any idea where this is heading to? I am in since 3.6c & as I do not book in profits (no free-carry stuff for me), just wondering whats next here? I know the announcements have been fast & furious & very very good & with Asian money backing this up are we looking at some serious $$$ figures here? I have never been on a ride in a speccie from a few cents to 20c, hence just want to know if you guys have been in similar rides before & what to expect ....


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## Sean K (13 November 2007)

mr_delta said:


> 20c milestone reached today at 10.50 am.....guys any idea where this is heading to? I am in since 3.6c & as I do not book in profits (no free-carry stuff for me), just wondering whats next here? I know the announcements have been fast & furious & very very good & with Asian money backing this up are we looking at some serious $$$ figures here? I have never been on a ride in a speccie from a few cents to 20c, hence just want to know if you guys have been in similar rides before & what to expect ....



Been there before and have ridden the stock all the way to the edge, and over, and back to the bottom. I've also sold on 200% gain, and watched a 500% run follow. I've also sold half on a 100% gain, gone free carried, and been very happy. The profits go into the next spec that hasn't run. My current policy on specs. Each to their own.


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## gordon2007 (13 November 2007)

This was my first real good winner. But with that said, I'm still  kicking my self because I sold out way too early. I still have some free carried now but still I've really missed out big time. Oh well, such is life. 



kennas said:


> Been there before and have ridden the stock all the way to the edge, and over, and back to the bottom. I've also sold on 200% gain, and watched a 500% run follow. I've also sold half on a 100% gain, gone free carried, and been very happy. The profits go into the next spec that hasn't run. My current policy on specs. Each to their own.


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## Sean K (13 November 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> This was my first real good winner. But with that said, I'm still



Who was to know Gordon? Anything else could have happened to stop the run. If you are 'trading' specs, then I think you need to have a solid exit plan. Being 'greedy' and holding on for just a bit longer, can be a traders failure IMO. I think having a target, or a 'valuation', and holding on to that number and then moving on, is a decent plan. But I am not really a 'trader' so....

This will go to $10 now. LOL


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## imaginator (13 November 2007)

kennas said:


> Who was to know Gordon? Anything else could have happened to stop the run. If you are 'trading' specs, then I think you need to have a solid exit plan. Being 'greedy' and holding on for just a bit longer, can be a traders failure IMO. I think having a target, or a 'valuation', and holding on to that number and then moving on, is a decent plan. But I am not really a 'trader' so....
> 
> This will go to $10 now. LOL





Is today's rise supported by any expectations or results? 
Just wondering if they will be releaseing anything out soon?

How is volume today?


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## RP_Automotive (13 November 2007)

42mil volume and up 3c today - with no news. I was told that there were results due out last friday, so they cant be far away.

Its my opinion that alot of the people that are on this stock are in for the medium term, in regards to so many drilling results due out over the next few months. In my opinion, even if the next drill result was not so spectacular we wouldn't see a major drop because people are there to 'ride it out' through all the drill results. I could be wrong.


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## rapture2002ca (13 November 2007)

I'm absoulutely loving today. Over 70 million traded and still no ann.

I thought 11c was too high, I'm glad I just on this tram.

I can imagine you guys who bought this at 3.5c. What a ride!


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## jonojpsg (13 November 2007)

OK people, here's a stab at some FA based on RAUs Whumbal West tungsten deposit (at least the potential??)

At current WO3 prices of $23/kg, and a strike length of 3km x 200m (average width) x 20m (this is the guesswork, along with grade) x 2 tonnes/m3 x 0.2% WO3 gives us...  24 million tonnes x 0.2% = 50000 tonnes of WO3 @ $23000/tonne = $US1.15 billion 

That is extremely rough, as I'm sure all you other FA experts will tell me, with the main points to get from the upcoming assays being the grade and depth of intercept.

As a comparison for mining costs, the Tiberon Minerals Nui Phao tungsten mine in Vietnam, which has one of the lower mining costs in the world tunsgten market, is $US8 per tonne.  If we take a 20% markup on that and say $US10 per tonne, for 24 million tonnes we have a cost of $US240 million.  


http://www.metalsnews.com/include.aspx?webpage=/public/tiberon/TiberonMinerals_TungstenMarket.htm


Then add in capital costs of ???? maybe $100 million????? and that leaves us with about $US700 million net income over the next ?? say 15 years at $US45 million per year.  

So, when we get assay results, we will be able to firm this up, but if this is in the ball park, then it still makes the current market cap of $US120 million a reasonable price, considering the other projects RAU has on the go.

Feel free to comment - in fact I'd appreciate some!!


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## Whiskers (13 November 2007)

RP_Automotive said:


> Its my opinion that alot of the people that are on this stock are in for the medium term, in regards to so many drilling results due out over the next few months. In my opinion, even if the next drill result was not so spectacular we wouldn't see a major drop because people are there to 'ride it out' through all the drill results. I could be wrong.




Well Automotive, we have two major shareholders on board, Zeus and Citicorp Nominees, who hold something like 20% now. I took my profit in the options and got back in the FPO where stock is moving faster and I can exit quickly if need be.

The valuation is the $64 question, and some people might feel reassured that there are buyers taking a significant holding, but sometimes they are just in it for the investment and if they see the frenzy taking the price to a level where there short term gain is better than what they might expect over a longer term, I have seen them exit just as quickly. 

So I am keeping a very close eye on things.


----------



## sydneysider (13 November 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Well Automotive, we have two major shareholders on board, Zeus and Citicorp Nominees, who hold something like 20% now. I took my profit in the options and got back in the FPO where stock is moving faster and I can exit quickly if need be.
> 
> The valuation is the $64 question, and some people might feel reassured that there are buyers taking a significant holding, but sometimes they are just in it for the investment and if they see the frenzy taking the price to a level where there short term gain is better than what they might expect over a longer term, I have seen them exit just as quickly.
> 
> So I am keeping a very close eye on things.




I took all of my "core" money off this table to-day. Have traded RAU all the way from 2.5 cents on the shares and 1.5 cents on the oppies. Technically RAU looks very overstretched to me. Some speccy money went into MKY who are next door to RAU in the Palmer River and are getting extrmely hi U grades.


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## porkpie324 (13 November 2007)

Technically RAU has been a classic since 12th Oct, a 100% SP rise on heavy volume, then a consolidation phase on low volume, and now another 100% rise on heavy volume. A few more of these and I can have another holiday!!. porkpie


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## wildmanchris (13 November 2007)

sydneysider said:


> I took all of my "core" money off this table to-day. Have traded RAU all the way from 2.5 cents on the shares and 1.5 cents on the oppies. Technically RAU looks very overstretched to me. Some speccy money went into MKY who are next door to RAU in the Palmer River and are getting extrmely hi U grades.




I agree that this share has run pretty hard and is probably due for a breather at some stage as most shares are - but as far as I can see, the company listed early 2005 at 20 cents, and has only just reached the levels at which it listed.  

I guess my question is, why did it run down so low - and why is it stretched if it only listed at 20 cents in the first place?

Sorry if this question has an obvious answer that I am missing.


----------



## RP_Automotive (13 November 2007)

wildmanchris said:


> I guess my question is, why did it run down so low - and why is it stretched if it only listed at 20 cents in the first place?
> 
> Sorry if this question has an obvious answer that I am missing.




Maybee nobody wanted to put their coin into a stock that had no pending drill results / upcoming news. Now that everything is on the horizon people have jumped on, and many other have sat up and taken notice. At first it would have looked great but people probably got fed up with waiting??


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## Whiskers (13 November 2007)

wildmanchris said:


> I agree that this share has run pretty hard and is probably due for a breather at some stage as most shares are - but as far as I can see, the company listed early 2005 at 20 cents, and has only just reached the levels at which it listed.
> 
> I guess my question is, why did it run down so low - and why is it stretched if it only listed at 20 cents in the first place?
> 
> Sorry if this question has an obvious answer that I am missing.




Hi wildmanchris.

Firstly the company listed in 2004, I think, with about 58m shares. It has been around a bit and had some problems and a huge capital and share increase back in June. See earlier posts. 

This chart shows why sydneysider says (and I agree) that it is looking pretty stretched, or over bought and due for some consilidation or a correction.


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## shaunm (13 November 2007)

Hi Whiskers,

What do you mean when you use the term "stretched" and why now is it due for a correction?


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## explod (13 November 2007)

explod said:


> If you can believe the reports coming through it may well be underpriced.  But due to past shennannigins by the previous management, investors are wary.  The chart would suggest something is afoot but with no announcement one should remain a bit sceptical.




On what has now emerged I see no reason for the teand not to continue.  I just wish I had not sold down most of my holding back then at 5cents.  Still smiling with what I have left, my addage is usually to follow, 'the trend is your friend untill the bend'.  

But I still insist on chickening out.  But there is another one that gets in the way,  'any profit is a good profit'


----------



## Whiskers (13 November 2007)

shaunm said:


> Hi Whiskers,
> 
> What do you mean when you use the term "stretched" and why now is it due for a correction?




Hi shaunm.

Sydneysider started his sentence with the word technically, as opposed to fundamentally, because we have to speculate at this stage about the fundamental values. But technically, we can gauge a number of things, relative to past performance, including buying intensity. 

Stockastics and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) give an indication of buying intensity. When the stockastic indicators go over 80%  it is generally considered as getting overbought. Conversely when it is under 20% it is considered oversold.

My chart shows a bit different indicator, the RSI as it is more definitive in this case. Similar thing though, getting close to 100%. The price is also getting further outside the Bollinger bands, which is a less precise indicator, but supports that the price is getting overbought. 

It could be that after a couple days consilidation it might get going again. When the RSI gets this high it can fall back quite a bit if buying volume and or bidders price fall. It is all going to hinge on what the assay results bring.


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## AussiePaul72 (13 November 2007)

WOW .... when will this baby take a rest???? 
There is definitely a big tug-o-war between fundamental analysis vs technical analysis for die hard investors on RAU, of which i am one of them! After jumping on board at 3.5c and then again at 8.8c when it took a short breather, i am now in a dilemma as to whether to take profits, and if so, when and how much?? One school of thought is that a lot of the increase in SP has factored in positive drill results. However, I really do like the fundamentals and if the drilling results are positive .... well there is no reason why RAU may run again, particularly with the amount of interest in this stock now!
As i keep harping on about in my posts .... hold on guys and strap yourself in if you are willing to take a risk & possibly a wild ride.... as there are lots of drilling results due over the next month (timing & detail outlined in detail in my previous posts) .... first of these due out ANY DAY NOW and highly likely before the end of the week as indicated in RAU's last drilling update announcement.
I'm holding on for the moment .... for better for worse .... will re-assess as some of the big key drilling results are released!


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## wildmanchris (13 November 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Sydneysider started his sentence with the word technically, as opposed to fundamentally, because we have to speculate at this stage about the fundamental values. But technically, we can gauge a number of things, relative to past performance, including buying intensity.




Good point - I think techincal has a place in trading for sure.....

I work for a company where there are WAY too many technical analysts and asked them for their opinion (these are guys that shorted the spi august correction to the hour and value) - they think that its really hard to track a speccie on technical grounds as the things that are driving them are hard to understand sometimes - this to me seems to be fundamentals driving the run.  

I mean, with three sets of drill results due this month and the potential buying of a tungsten mine - it might just be time that it woke up!!!!  

Having said that - I am no expert and these guys could be wrong.  I have made a fair whack in it already and everything points to taking profit, but I just havent mastered the trading psych side yet.......


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## mick2006 (14 November 2007)

wow can't believe how far this one has run, although not complaining have been trading in and out from about the 3.3c level, making an absolute killing.

Would be very careful buying in at these levels as has been mentioned by others it is overdue for a break.

I have been switching some funds back into EXM which has the first set of results due from Tennant Creek in two weeks, with some amazing historical gold results this one could be the next one to take off following in the footsteps of RAU and PRE.


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## imaginator (14 November 2007)

mick2006 said:


> wow can't believe how far this one has run, although not complaining have been trading in and out from about the 3.3c level, making an absolute killing.
> 
> Would be very careful buying in at these levels as has been mentioned by others it is overdue for a break.
> 
> I have been switching some funds back into EXM which has the first set of results due from Tennant Creek in two weeks, with some amazing historical gold results this one could be the next one to take off following in the footsteps of RAU and PRE.




Still no report or announcement yet for RAU. This morning volume already hits 30 million? In Comsec it is entered the 'Most Buy' list in the morning. Why the sudden public confidence in this one?
Price shot to 0.29, not at 11am is 0.255


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## shaunm (14 November 2007)

mick2006 said:


> I have been switching some funds back into EXM which has the first set of results due from Tennant Creek in two weeks, with some amazing historical gold results this one could be the next one to take off following in the footsteps of RAU and PRE.




Hi Mick,

Thanks for the tip. 
Yeah this is quite a lot of fun to watch and be part of.

Re EXM, when you say "amazing historical results" are you saying you expect this or it has been announced by the company?

I'm off to do some research.


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## imaginator (14 November 2007)

Hi guys

Is today extraordinary or what? Wow the volume is sky high.

Was there a radio interview or something going on?

Have millions waiting at each price.


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## rapture2002ca (15 November 2007)

Bad start for RAU today, down 5c already.

Well I guess it had to have a correction sometime considering the super run it has had. Lucky I'm in this one for the long term.


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## Whiskers (15 November 2007)

rapture2002ca said:


> Bad start for RAU today, down 5c already.
> 
> Well I guess it had to have a correction sometime considering the super run it has had. Lucky I'm in this one for the long term.




Yes, the correction was expected. But since no assay results are out yet I wouldn't expect it to fall much more. Still looking good for the longet term though.


I took profits yesterday and got over into the KAL camp for a bit. I'm thinking I'll probably get back into the RAU camp later today though.


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## shaunm (15 November 2007)

"Correction" is really such a negative word.
It's just people taking some of their "hard-earned" profits which is OK.:kiffer:


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## imaginator (15 November 2007)

Guys it is at 0.19

ANyone topping up again?

I sold half yesterday at 0.26 luckily. Am holding this other half for already 2x more profit than i paid for.

Hands getting itchy to buy more again.........

Im wondering, everyone was expecting some sort of result, but did RAU said they are gonna release or announce anything soon?


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## X888 (15 November 2007)

> From the drilling update announcement and boardroom radio interview with John Kelly, there is exciting times ahead for RAU.
> 
> There are many announcements that will be flowing through Nov & Dec that were outlined in todays announcement:
> 
> ...




imaginator you should do your research


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## rapture2002ca (15 November 2007)

Very dissapointing day for RAU. 

I'm a newbie to trading and have just recently become Chess sponsored. 

Unfortunately when I bought RAU last week it was under an SRN. As I don't have my SRN statement yet I was unable to sell out at 22c due to not having the SRN number.

So I've been burned literally today. I can't wait to convert this thing to Chess when finally I get my statement. Too little to late I'm afraid.

Anyone else get caught in this rout?


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## alankew (15 November 2007)

Ann out,heres the link,http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071115/pdf/315vd48z0cct8v.pdf  wont copy and paste for some reason.Pity they didnt bring it out a few hours sooner


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## rapture2002ca (15 November 2007)

The ann hasn't made much of an impact yet. 

I'm betting they just released it to stop the panic that is going on today.


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## Broadside (15 November 2007)

rapture2002ca said:


> The ann hasn't made much of an impact yet.
> 
> I'm betting they just released it to stop the panic that is going on today.




that's a fair assumption, anyway if you're a newbie this is a crash course in speccies, RAU has been on steroids the past week, win / lose / draw you'll be the better for it.  I hold but took some profits yesterday.  Good luck.


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## sydneysider (15 November 2007)

rapture2002ca said:


> The ann hasn't made much of an impact yet.
> 
> I'm betting they just released it to stop the panic that is going on today.




AS I warned three days ago a correction was warranted and it has been a severe high volume one (so far). Volume tends to run with trend and a down volume day of over 125,000,000 shares has smashed up all of the technical signals and sent them into the basement. My personal opinion is to stay way from this type of behavior until all of the panic (including T3 traders) washes out of the stock. Trying to guess up or down now is like picking red or black at the casino. 

I was very pleasantly suprised at how quickly RAU "blew up". I suspect that a bunch of Asian money blew thru the stock and sucked in a lot of daytraders along the way. Will come back to look at this late next week.


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## imaginator (15 November 2007)

X888 said:


> imaginator you should do your research




Thanks! 
hehe, i was too caught up with the numbers and volume 

But ended at 0.17, did anyone pick up more today?

It's strange, why so much interest from the public yesterday, but today they seem to cool????? Very very strange! EXM too!


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## shaunm (15 November 2007)

Well hey, the market is well and truly down today.
Who would have thought on a day when the US finished positively we are in the red.


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## Aargh! (15 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Thanks!
> hehe, i was too caught up with the numbers and volume
> 
> But ended at 0.17, did anyone pick up more today?
> ...




I had been holding for a month and sold yesterday at 27c with a tidy profit.
I bought back in today at 16c.


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## dubiousinfo (15 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Thanks!
> hehe, i was too caught up with the numbers and volume
> 
> But ended at 0.17, did anyone pick up more today?
> ...





Today had nothing to do with fundamentals or long term holders. Today was all about traders taking profits off the table. This will always happen when a stock runs as hard as this has recently.

Traders have no interest in the long term potential of a stock. They just ride the wave, take a profit and move on.

Its all just part of the overall market.


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## shaunm (15 November 2007)

Today I learned the value and importance of placing conditional orders for a "stop loss". The damage was minimised...phew!:bowdown:


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## porkpie324 (15 November 2007)

Looking at the buy & sell quotes today there's lots of small lots on the buy side, on the sell side it looks like large lots, more than likely an institution(s) averageing down there exposure. porkpie


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## AussiePaul72 (15 November 2007)

dubiousinfo said:


> Today had nothing to do with fundamentals or long term holders. Today was all about traders taking profits off the table. This will always happen when a stock runs as hard as this has recently.
> 
> Traders have no interest in the long term potential of a stock. They just ride the wave, take a profit and move on.
> 
> Its all just part of the overall market.




I totally agree with you Dubiousinfo!

The fundamentals of RAU have not changed one iota from yesterday to today. We all knew there was going to be a correction soon. It happened today and RAU was one of a number of stocks (including MHL) where traders moved in to take profits.

I guess if you're a very short term trader then today was a disappointing day. However, for med-long term holders i don't think there is reason to panick at all. We need to keep in mind that this amazing run has been virtually on the back of little or no significant news. We are expecting a raft of drilling results over the next month and if the news is positive the RAU train will continue to march on to greater heights!

Have confidence and don't get caught up in the hype! Thats my view and advice. Good luck to all


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## Whiskers (15 November 2007)

Back on the 7th Nov when I took my profits it looked like an Evening Star might form. It didn't quite form then, but a weak shooting star did and the stock took a breather and I got back onboard. As I said earlier I took profits again yesterday as it looked like a classic Shooting Star forming. Today it did form the third leg of a solid Evening Star pattern, with avengence.

I thought about getting back in late this afternoon, but as the market was taking a bit of a dive and expecting more bad news from the US could hold us back again tomorrow, discretion was the better part of valour.

PS: You make a good point Aussiepaul that no results are in yet and the long term prospects are still good, however it looks like the price needs to cool off for awhile.


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## Whiskers (15 November 2007)

Good to see the mods are everywhere and fast under foot. 

I was wondering what 'that' post was all about  and next thing it was ... gone. :axt:


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## Pommiegranite (15 November 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> I totally agree with you Dubiousinfo!
> 
> *The fundamentals of RAU have not changed one iota from yesterday to today. We all knew there was going to be a correction soon. It happened today and RAU was one of a number of stocks (including MHL) where traders moved in to take profits.*
> 
> ...




..but wouldn't you say the recent run was due to traders in the first place? It would be incorrect to think when the SP went up, it was due to investors, and when it went in reverse it was down to short term traders.


I would like to know more about Mt Carbine. From what I see, *should *RAU aquire Mt Carbine, they will probably have a massive resource. What I dont understand is the rate of production, and why its not discussed.

I may be wrong on the following, and am happy to be corrected:

Historically, Carbine produced 1 million MTU over the whole 15 years that it was open.

1,000,000MTU x $250 per MTU(current price) = $250million

Now, if thats the revenue that RAU would earn over 15 years, it is certainly far from impressive, now matter how long the minelife.

So this leads me onto 2 questions:

1. How much Tungsten would be in demand on an annual basis ? (China produces 60K tonnes per annum, Carbine's production was 10K tonnes).

So on these facts, how much demand would there be for a ramped up Mt Carbine, or Whumbal.

and

2. Wouldn't it be better to invest in an Iron DSO company that can dig up and ship Iron within a matter of months. There are plenty out there that can produce 2million tonnes pa for 10 years @ $60pt = $120million revenue per annum, and at half RAU's market cap.

Am I missing something?


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## sydneysider (16 November 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> ..but wouldn't you say the recent run was due to traders in the first place? It would be incorrect to think when the SP went up, it was due to investors, and when it went in reverse it was down to short term traders.
> 
> 
> I would like to know more about Mt Carbine. From what I see, *should *RAU aquire Mt Carbine, they will probably have a massive resource. What I dont understand is the rate of production, and why its not discussed.
> ...




U have not missed a thing and made a very perceptive comment. Tungsten mines do NOT carry massive valuations, nor do they produce massive volumes of metal due to grade distribution of tunsten. At 2-3 cents RAU was IMHO a massive buy AND at current levels a major sell. This may change if they make a major strike on one of their other properties where they are drilling for gold and copper BUT they are already very richly valued on their drilling at Whumbal and option to buy Mt Carbine.


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## imaginator (16 November 2007)

sydneysider said:


> U have not missed a thing and made a very perceptive comment. Tungsten mines do NOT carry massive valuations, nor do they produce massive volumes of metal due to grade distribution of tunsten. At 2-3 cents RAU was IMHO a massive buy AND at current levels a major sell. This may change if they make a major strike on one of their other properties where they are drilling for gold and copper BUT they are already very richly valued on their drilling at Whumbal and option to buy Mt Carbine.




Sydneysider, what do you mean "at 2-3 cents massive buy and major sell"? Do u mean its good to buy now, and its also good time to sell now?


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## Pommiegranite (16 November 2007)

sydneysider said:


> U have not missed a thing and made a very perceptive comment. Tungsten mines do NOT carry massive valuations, nor do they produce massive volumes of metal due to grade distribution of tunsten. At 2-3 cents RAU was IMHO a massive buy AND at current levels a major sell. This may change if they make a major strike on one of their other properties where they are drilling for gold and copper BUT they are already very richly valued on their drilling at Whumbal and option to buy Mt Carbine.




Thanks SS,

I'm now out of RAU....again...lol. I've noticed on the other forum that nobody seems to be taking this into account. Its all "Quick...buy..the Chinese are coming..(with briefcases full of cash)"

Market Cap of RAU is now $150million. I know of many other companies with higher NPVs at 1/4 the market cap.


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## Aargh! (16 November 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> Thanks SS,
> 
> I'm now out of RAU....again...lol. I've noticed on the other forum that nobody seems to be taking this into account. Its all "Quick...buy..the Chinese are coming..(with briefcases full of cash)"
> 
> Market Cap of RAU is now $150million. I know of many other companies with higher NPVs at 1/4 the market cap.




Care to elaborate on these other companies Pommiegranite?
I jumped out of RAU Wednesday @ 27c and Jumped back in yesterday @ 16c.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (17 November 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> From the drilling update announcement and boardroom radio interview with John Kelly, there is exciting times ahead for RAU.
> 
> There are many announcements that will be flowing through Nov & Dec that were outlined in todays announcement:
> 
> ...




G'day All ..... another update on RAU
After Thursday's correction from profit takers, IMHO Friday was a strong consolidation day. After closing previously at 0.17, it opened at 0.185 and traded up to close on the intra-day high of 0.215 on good volume of 78 million.
First drilling results expected on Monday from Barraga Copper Project in NSW. This was indicated by John Kelly in the boardroom radio interview last Thursday.
Below is a quote out of the drilling update (2nd Nov) after drilling at the Barraga Copper Project:
"Significant copper mineralisation as chalcopyrite, associated with lead and zinc sulphides, has been reported from the field in a number of drillholes. Chalcopyrite is one of the major economic copper minerals. The presence of intrusive porphyries has also been noted, which supports the interpretation that mineralisation could be related to a larger deeper seated intrusive system. Importantly, previously unknown zones have been intersected away from the historical Lloyds Mine. Analysis results are awaited."
I'm looking forward to seeing whether the drill results on Monday confirm the above potential.....good luck to all holders!


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## Whiskers (20 November 2007)

It's going to be a significant day for RAU today I think. It is worth noting that citicorp sold down about 36m shares to take their stake from abt 12% to abt 6%.

That evening star still bothers me a bit. The third leg, the big down day was overdone a bit and accounts for a little rise back before another down day yesterday. 

If good assays are posted today I think the price will probably hold above .20, but if they don't get those assay results sorted out and reported this morning, I can see the last of the DT's moving on and the price coming down further... maybe even to .10 to .12 area. 

That would be my cue to get back in.


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## Aargh! (20 November 2007)

I sold my holding Wednesday last week @ around 26 cents and bought back in @ 16 cents the following day. I sold yesterday @ 23 cents in the absence of any news.
Whiskers if they do drop (seems unlikely) to 10-12 cents I wont hesitate to jump back in. I don't think it will drop below last Thursday's low of 16 cents.
I've been enjoying the Republic ride, its been several Christmas presents come at once.


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## calabrese (20 November 2007)

What did you think of today's report?      It seems that the market was not impressed.     On the other hand the negativity may be due to what happened in the US and UK overnight.


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## Whiskers (20 November 2007)

calabrese said:


> What did you think of today's report?      It seems that the market was not impressed.     On the other hand the negativity may be due to what happened in the US and UK overnight.




Hi calabrese.

Todays report relates to a very small part of the project. It doesn't highlight any obvious economic resource yet, but a few small economic sections seems to confirm some optimism about the project. I think the market was probably expecting more from the first announcement due to the fact that, as I pointed out earlier, John Kelly has been pumping the news at every possibility and a lot of excited investers and DT's jumped on board.

One should keep an eye on all the factors affecting the share price. Cu has been weakening of late and Au is weakening still. I think Cu might have bottomed out but Au may fall to the low 700's before it kicks on. Also the US market is continuing to sour. All of this will have a dampening effect on the share price for awhile, despite DT's trying to pump it up.

The evening star is a bear signal which I lodged firmly in my psyce and so I am expecting the price to trend a bit lower than, and look for support below the recent high's. I am still keen on the company, but also as mentioned earlier they have a lot of shares on issue and options in the money which I think makes the recent prices overvalued at this stage of development, so I will be watching for the cycle to overcorrect and buy back in again.

Good work Aargh.

I was tempted to try to emulate your nice work, but I turned my interest elsewhere for the time being.


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## hardcoremike (21 November 2007)

Hi whiskers. I'm a noobie at this, when you mean you'll wait for things to correct and buy back in, isn't the SP already fairly low atm so wouldn't around .19 be a low price

cheers.


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## prawn_86 (21 November 2007)

Mike,

To what reference to you think the share price is low? Ie - is it market cap, or based on the projects the companies projects?

The price of an individual share has no effect. A co coule have 1billion shares @ 20c meaning 200mill market cap or 500mill shares @ 20c meaning 100mil market cap. 

Share price really means nothing unless it is in relation to something. 

Hope this helps


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## SevenFX (21 November 2007)

hardcoremike said:


> Hi whiskers. I'm a noobie at this, when you mean you'll wait for things to correct and buy back in, isn't the SP already fairly low atm so wouldn't around .19 be a low price
> 
> cheers.




Hi Mike.

RAU has risen *rapidly* in the last month and may have some more retracement to fill, as not long ago it was trading at 2.9c 

These movements may be compounded or further rises may be hindered given the choppy market were in atm.

However the right sort good news has been known to rally stocks desipte the rest of the market free falling IMO.

Welcome to ASF.
Cheers
SevenFX


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## Whiskers (21 November 2007)

hardcoremike said:


> Hi whiskers. I'm a noobie at this, when you mean you'll wait for things to correct and buy back in, isn't the SP already fairly low atm so wouldn't around .19 be a low price
> 
> cheers.




Hi hardcoremike.

I see Prawn and SevenFX have summed it up pretty well. 

There has been a about a five times increase in the share price and fundamentally as well as techinically I feel it is getting a bit ahead of value for the stage of development of the projects. I don't discount the prospects of the company. It's just that for me it was overbought for the time being.

This is how I did the rough valuation to determine my value. There are about 597m shares on issue and 214m options mostly exerciseable at 2.5c. 

At 20c per share the market cap is abt $119.4m. Fully diluted, (all options exercised) will bring in abt $6.5m to the company, and increase FPO shares to abt 811m and a market cap to $125.9m. 

*BUT* because the exercise price of the options is so low the effect is a net dilution of value per share. The market cap is marginally increased to $125.9m. Upon exercise of the options, divide that by the new number of FPO shares and the value of a share becomes $125.9m / 811 = 15.5c per share.

At 20c I see their actual (diluted) value discounted to 15.5c because it seems inevitable that the options will be exercised. The higher the price goes the wider that difference will become. Conversely the lower it falls the less the gap.

So, in summary it is a matter of working out the market cap, checking that against the value of the assets of the company and in this case discounting for the exercise of options.


----------



## SevenFX (28 November 2007)

RAU still not what I call tanked, and seems to have little more to go... if it's going to recover to it's highs...

Bargin Basement or Premium Pirces...????

SevenFX


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## sydneysider (28 November 2007)

SevenFX said:


> RAU still not what I call tanked, and seems to have little more to go... if it's going to recover to it's highs...
> 
> Bargin Basement or Premium Pirces...????
> 
> SevenFX




MACD is stll in its "rollover phase" indicating further weakness ahead. I would stand aside and watch the distribution phase finish its work. Another point that might be relevant to the golds is that the US$ may be attempting a rally that will send down the gold price. I do not hold any golds at this time. I did a very interesting switch from RAU into MKY which holds adjoining leases to RAU in the Palmer River (for uranium) and which has much better technical action. So a switch in the RAU oppies from the 20-22 cents level to MKY at 5.1 to 5.5 is paying handsome dividends (now 6 cents). The Palmer River area may turn out to be a treasure trove of various metals.


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## louisapple (28 November 2007)

rollover phase quite right but i believe the price drop mainly reflect  investor lack of enough confidence dut to external element follow asx index drop(also successive bad news from american) whenever they wake up the price will rise after all RAU is a good one with good outlook.by the way i believe gold price will last rising until next year may be after march because chinese and indian traditional new year high demand for gold also due to high oil price


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## rapture2002ca (29 November 2007)

Seems like more downward selling pressure for RAU today, everyone must be waiting for the deal about Mt Carbine to be released.


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## AussiePaul72 (30 November 2007)

rapture2002ca said:


> Seems like more downward selling pressure for RAU today, everyone must be waiting for the deal about Mt Carbine to be released.




Mt Carbine news due any day now. I expect it to be positive and that they will aquire it as everything that John Kelly has mentioned about it has been positive right up to the boardroom radio interview yesterday.
There are also more drilling results due in the near future from a number of prospects.
I sold a portion of my holding at 20c and am not panicking at all with the SP back at 15.5c currently. I still believe there is a lot of upside potential for RAU and am in for the long term.


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## Aargh! (30 November 2007)

It's an exciting day for all holders. Approval (or less likely disapproval) of Mt Carbine will happen today. 

I have been on and off the RAU ride and I'm back on board


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## Superfly (30 November 2007)

Called Republic today, John Kelly answered...asked him about when drill results next out, he said should be soon, maybe next week .....didnt ask him about Carbine, forgot to !!...must admit it I did not expect JK to answer, thought a secretary, maybe it was the o/s number I called in on, but he seemed like a real nice guy and had time to chat.


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## Aargh! (30 November 2007)

Superfly said:


> Called Republic today, John Kelly answered...asked him about when drill results next out, he said should be soon, maybe next week .....didnt ask him about Carbine, forgot to !!...must admit it I did not expect JK to answer, thought a secretary, maybe it was the o/s number I called in on, but he seemed like a real nice guy and had time to chat.




Yeah he is a good guy. Talked to him also. The decision on Carbine is being made today. Not sure if they'll release to market this afternoon or on Monday.


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## rapture2002ca (30 November 2007)

RAU finished 1.5c down today, seems like more sellers than buyers at the moment.

I wonder if it is the calm before the storm, hopefully we will get some good news next week.


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## Whiskers (1 December 2007)

Been trying to get a handle on when to get back in here. I initially indicated 10 to 12c based on previous support in that area.

However it looks like a Bearish pennant has formed, albeit pretty minimalist, and unsure how reliable, but pointing to a low around 5c.  

As mentioned earlier there was a bearish evening star that halted the bull run. A Dark Cloud formed on the 21st and an engulfing Bearish candle on the 26th, albeit on a doji, so again not sure how reliable, but all in all the indicators seem to be pointing to more downward movement to an intraday low abt 5c.

5c seems a bit severe, but still leaves a fully diluted MC abt $40m which upon further concideration seems reasonable at this stage of development for what is known and reasonably able to be estimated compared to similar companies. eg I recently did a guestimate valuation for KAL which has a similar MC but has 1.2 m oz Au compared to an estimated .75m oz with a bit more drilling for RAU. Both also have good relatively undrilled prospects.

Am I missing something? I don't have any figures on the possible or potential sizes and values of the so far non JORC recources and prospects. Do they warrant a higher share price for the moment? 

Anyone got better data to suggest otherwise?


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## Whiskers (3 December 2007)

Announcement from RAU this morning. I guess that confirms my analysis a bit. I wasn't surprised to see this extension of time because it seemed to me that a lot of things had to fall into place pretty well first shot to live up to the timeline expectations that were generated. I can understand that because there are certainly some good looking prospects if we are to believe what we are being told. 

Still those interesting assay results to come though. But anticipating a pre xmas glut at the labs, they might take a bit longer too.



> PURCHASE OFFER MADE FOR MT CARBINE
> The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces that it has made an
> offer to purchase Mt Carbine and the associated quarrying businesses. The vendor has agreed to
> a further extension of the exclusivity arrangement to enable the parties to hold discussions on a
> mutually acceptable purchase price and to draw up the sale documentation.


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## rapture2002ca (3 December 2007)

Another radio broadcast my John Kelly this evening about the Mt Carbine deal. 

Looks like they are in the final stages but just need a proposal to be signed off which may take another few weeks. It looks lik a goer once done.

What do you techie's think about the news on Mt Carbine so far?


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## Whiskers (3 December 2007)

Citicorp Nominees have reduced their holding by another 7m shares on 30 Nov - ASX after market announcement.

No doubt taking a bit more profit... or are they loosing confidence? 

Given the failed deals that RAU have had in the past, despite confidently talking up the prospects, I start getting worried when an important deal like Mt Carbine is extended for a third time.

I guess I have a bit of a lawyer mind  but Kelly said they have made an offer and need more time to decide on a mutually agreeable price. That's a long way from 'we have a deal but we just need to get the paperwork done'. I worry that could be as close to doing a deal as the Luzon arrangement was. 

I hope my concerns are proven wrong, but it's a worry in the meantime.


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## sydneysider (4 December 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Been trying to get a handle on when to get back in here. I initially indicated 10 to 12c based on previous support in that area.
> 
> However it looks like a Bearish pennant has formed, albeit pretty minimalist, and unsure how reliable, but pointing to a low around 5c.
> 
> ...




Whiskers, I think many of the punters who are playing this stock have failed to observe that the gold price has taken a hit over the last few weeks and the fact that we may have a US$ rally of some kind may pull the rug from under gold stocks. RAU is still known as a gold with some decent assets here. Your technical interpretation IMHO is fairly reasonable although i think 7-10 cents may be a more reasonable base.  

See chart below, technicals are oversold but uniformly bearish both on MACD and stochastics which may "cleanse" all of the stall bulls into support at 7-10 cents.


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## AussiePaul72 (4 December 2007)

sydneysider said:


> Whiskers, I think many of the punters who are playing this stock have failed to observe that the gold price has taken a hit over the last few weeks and the fact that we may have a US$ rally of some kind may pull the rug from under gold stocks. RAU is still known as a gold with some decent assets here. Your technical interpretation IMHO is fairly reasonable although i think 7-10 cents may be a more reasonable base.
> 
> See chart below, technicals are oversold but uniformly bearish both on MACD and stochastics which may "cleanse" all of the stall bulls into support at 7-10 cents.




Well, this is what day traders and momentum can do to a companies SP. RAU went through a period there of being one of the biggest traded stocks on the ASX and with the momentum saw phenominal moves in SP.
I got on early and reduced my holding by half at 20c. My remaining holding i am in for the long term. RAU has now demonstrated that it is a diversified company with gold, tungsten and copper anomolies. To me it carries reduced risk through this diversification. 
I know this phrase is used a lot, but 'the fundamentals of RAU have not changed' from when the company SP hit 29c to where it is at close of day today at 12c.
It would seem to me that Mt Carbine will go ahead as soon as they settle on a price. We still have a number of drilling results due including the very exciting Whumbal West tungsten anomaly.
To me the SP is just settling out to a range where it should be, prior to the short term trader momentum and SP exageration. Good luck to all fellow long term holders and don't be dis-heartened by the SP settling! This is all only IMO, so DYOR!


----------



## Whiskers (6 December 2007)

Nice little rally from yesterday to this morning. Would have been a good trade if I saw it coming. 

Not sure that it has bottomed out yet.

Looks like today could end with a shooting star. That being the case likely down a bit tomorrow.


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## Bowey (7 December 2007)

*Re: RAU - Republic Gold - Change of Director`s Interest Notice*

7 Dec 2007 12:02 Change of Director`s Interest Notice 

It appears 2 directors have jusst exercised some options
 G.Barns acquired 2M shares @ 6.25c (under his name) = cost $125K
 J.Kelly acquired 765K shares @ 2.5c (via Zeus Pty Ltd) = cost $19K

Given current SP of 13c, now worth $260K and $99k respectively - nice profit!

It may not mean much, but I get nervous when directors exercise options when the share price is currently so low. Does it mean they think the SP will go down even lower, I don't know? Anyone?

I saw some obvious fanboy ramping on HC yesterday made it jump a little, can't help thinking what's going on with this stock. Does it have any confirmed resources etc etc?

PS - I still hold some from 21c


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## Whiskers (7 December 2007)

*Re: RAU - Republic Gold - Change of Director`s Interest Notice*



Bowey said:


> 7 Dec 2007 12:02 Change of Director`s Interest Notice
> 
> It appears 2 directors have jusst exercised some options
> G.Barns acquired 2M shares @ 6.25c (under his name) = cost $125K
> ...




Hi Bowey.

I suspect it has more to do with maintaining control of the company. I mentioned earlier that two companies, Zeus and Citicorp had acquired about 20% of the company. Although Citicorp has sold down it stake a bit since, they still have a very substantial voting position. 

I think the exercise of these options to fully paid shares has probably been bought on out of concern for loosing control of the company.

EDIT: Just checked the numbers. Citicorp had nearly 13%, but as I said sold down some. Possible they could be buying back now at lower prices. Zeus is associated with some of the directors and it's interest got watered down a bit by the recent placement, so you would assume that it would support RAU.


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## X888 (7 December 2007)

actually this is a good thing :

1. shows confidence in the company
2. directors will try to exercise as close to the lowest price as possible to minimise taxes

DW im in for much higher a T+3 trade gone bad...


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## Bowey (7 December 2007)

Yep, both replies make sense.

I would like to know, is there a minimum volume or % at which director transactions are announced, or is the company obliged to announce ALL director buy/sell transactions? I ask this because it would be good to know whether the directors cash out immediately after exercising the options or if they keep.


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## mr_delta (10 December 2007)

Good start to the week….ip 1.5c to 14.5c….the sell-off on Friday looks like profit taking from the run from 10.5c to 16c last week….

When do you guys reckon will we see the next batch of announcements re drilling & the biggest one of them – Mt Carbine?

Too many things to look forward to out here and the two-way movement of the past 8-10 trading days has kept the holders nervous IMO….


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## rapture2002ca (10 December 2007)

The Burraga drills results have been released today with some encouraging results. We will probably get a radio ann out sometime today or tommorrow to further elaborate. That's why I think the SP has jumped a bit today.

On Mt Carbine it doesn't look like anything will be signed until early in January 2008 as John Kelly tries to finalise the deal. I think the vendor might be trying to squeeze as much out of RAU as possible.


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## powerkoala (10 December 2007)

anyone knows what happen to RAU?
is it citicorp reducing its shares again?
seems twice HUGE transactions wipe out all buyers to 10.5c.
any ideas?


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## Whiskers (10 December 2007)

powerkoala said:


> anyone knows what happen to RAU?
> is it citicorp reducing its shares again?
> seems twice HUGE transactions wipe out all buyers to 10.5c.
> any ideas?




Don't know yet powerkoala, but one would expect it is citicorp.

Todays ann wasn't very flash. Had a look at the charts again and I'm afraid there is more downside coming I think.

I think after all the optermistic expectation furnished by John Kelly, they will need to pull something pretty spectactular out of the hat now to turn the share price around. Maybe the gold prospects will provide that for them.

Problem is if citicorp decide to evacuate totally we could see the share price beat down under 10c... maybe to that 5c that I came up with earlier.


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## porkpie324 (10 December 2007)

With a 'yet to dig anything out of the ground mining company', whenever there's a spike in the share price it pays to flog your holding this works  about 9 times out of 10, you can always buy in again later, usually at a much lower price. porkpie


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## Bowey (12 December 2007)

*Re: RAU - Chinese Investors*

Today's release by RAU, not sure if a turnover of AUD$3B would be considered a "major" mining group in China, seems overstated to me. Anyway, market has already factored this into the current pricing and I don't think it will do much today, given the state of the market.

Cheers,


HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE VISIT BY CHINESE DELEGATION 


The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces that over the past weekend the Company hosted a delegation of senior executives from a major Chinese mining group.  This mining group has an annual turnover of approximately AUD$3B.   

The members of the delegation expressed great interest in investing outside of China and in Republic’s prospects in particular.  This company has two investments already outside of China, both in Africa.  The delegation travelled to Australia with the sole purpose of visiting the Company to view its projects and hold preliminary discussions on a possible involvement with Republic.  A 
follow-up visit has already been agreed and will take place in the New Year. 

The delegation was particularly interested in the Company’s gold projects in Far North Queensland and in the Burraga Copper Project.  This is an excellent compliment for the Malaysian Chinese investors who have predominantly invested in the Company because of the tungsten 
projects. 

Yours faithfully 
John Kelly


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## hardcoremike (17 December 2007)

seems like we're starting to lose interest in this company..
Does anyone here know when new announcements will be up?

i've still got holdings from when the shareprice was in the 20s


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## Whiskers (17 December 2007)

hardcoremike said:


> seems like we're starting to lose interest in this company..
> Does anyone here know when new announcements will be up?
> 
> i've still got holdings from when the shareprice was in the 20s




Don't know when more announcements are coming Mike, but my reading of the charts hasn't changed much from sydneysiders earlier chart. Still looking south and no sign of turning yet, for me.

I'm feeling a bit tempted to buy back in under 10c at the moment.


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## SevenFX (17 December 2007)

Hey Mike,

Bare in mind part of this selloff being based on Overall downward market pressure, and till that is lifted sellers are likely to selldown.

Perhaps we could see some releif should XAO bounce off 6000 and RAU news hits soon after.

OR perhaps XAO will test the Aug lows of around 5450...????

SevenFX


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## Doris (20 December 2007)

Just out...

20 December 2007
The Manager
Companies Announcement Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited

FURTHER HIGHLY ENCOURAGING MULTIPLE MINERALISED ZONES ENCOUNTERED AT BURRAGA

KEY POINTS
♦ Best intersections of 3.9 metres at 1.48% Zn, 0.93% Pb & 8.3 g/t Ag, 2.5 metres at 0.97% Cu & 9.4 g/t Ag and 2.35 metres at 0.95% Zn, 0.72% Pb & 6.1 g/t Ag.
♦ The range of base & precious metals mineralisation encountered in the initial
drillholes at Burraga continues to be encountered – copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), gold (Au) and silver (Ag)
♦ Best individual analyses of 7.56% Zn, 3.20% Pb, 3.08% Cu, 0.28 g/t Au and 22.4 g/t Ag
♦ The 3.9 metre intersection equates to 2.75 g/t Au and the 2.5 metre intersection equates to 2.85 g/t Au at current metal prices
♦ Further Burraga analysis results are awaited
♦ Burraga is a large target with dimensions of up to 4,000 x 900 metres. Drilling to-date now confirms base and precious metal mineralisation over a strike length of 850 metres on the western limb of the syncline
♦ A stage 2 drilling programme will be designed following the receipt of the remaining analysis results.

The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces that it has received the third batch of analysis results from the recently completed drilling programme at the 75%-owned Burraga Copper Project that is located in mineral-rich Central New South Wales.

The results continue to confirm the potential for a large scale body of mineralisation at Burraga. 

These new analysis results are for part of drillholes RCR-002 and RCR-003. These analysis results continue to confirm the polymetallic nature of Burraga.
Managing Director of Republic Gold, Mr John Kelly said “These analysis results are the highest combined metal grades encountered in this drilling programme to-date and indicate that Burraga has the potential to host an economic body of polymetallic mineralisation. The positive results in RCR-003 mean that the mineralised structure that this hole is drilled on is now extended to 850 metres in length when the results of four other holes are taken into account.”


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## mr_delta (21 December 2007)

Any geologist out here? Please comment on these grades....I am so blind with these grades that I wouldn't understand a word out of it all....these are just a lot of numbers for me....sorry about that as I am just a humble IT guys & all the numbers I understand is IP addresses....


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## sydneysider (21 December 2007)

mr_delta said:


> Any geologist out here? Please comment on these grades....I am so blind with these grades that I wouldn't understand a word out of it all....these are just a lot of numbers for me....sorry about that as I am just a humble IT guys & all the numbers I understand is IP addresses....




These results are not exciting, values are low, interesctions are thin. RAU is now captive to firming US$ and bearish trends in gold. The whole gold sector has been "whacked". RAU was a wild ride on the upside and same on the downside. Recent placement was at 7.5 cents which IMHO represents reasonable "fair value". Stay way from stocks that look like "falling knives" as the turning point could be quite bloody.


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## shaunm (21 December 2007)

I reckon they could find football sized lumps of gold but the way the market is right now I don't think that would raise an eyelid
I think there is a collective "just get me to the christmas holidays now" feeling out there at the moment.


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## Doris (27 December 2007)

X888 said:


> actually this is a good thing :
> 
> 1. shows confidence in the company
> 2. directors will try to exercise as close to the lowest price as possible to minimise taxes




Please explain...
Why would it be a tax advantage?  The exercise price is the cost base. So how does the market price affect their tax?

  Unless they on-sell on market...


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## AussiePaul72 (27 December 2007)

Wow ...... big surge on descent volume of 44 Million today. RAU opened in low 8's today and closed at 11c .....UP OVER 30% on no news! Quite a turn around to the down-ward settling trend it was on.
I wonder if the market considered it was oversold at a SP under 10c? or i wonder if there is positive news on the way? or i wonder if overseas investors are buying in (possibly Chinese after recent visit)? ......i'd like to know what others think is the most likely!!! 
I'm holding ...


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## jonojpsg (28 December 2007)

My take on RAU is that the Whumbal West deposit was the project that the SP took off on - others have posted that Burraga or other gold deposits were the attraction.  If it is WW that is attracting attention then it may be that people are positioning in anticipation of those results, which are due out any day.  As I am holding it is obviously my hope that these results are V good


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## powerkoala (28 December 2007)

jonojpsg said:


> My take on RAU is that the Whumbal West deposit was the project that the SP took off on - others have posted that Burraga or other gold deposits were the attraction.  If it is WW that is attracting attention then it may be that people are positioning in anticipation of those results, which are due out any day.  As I am holding it is obviously my hope that these results are V good




uhm.. if i were correct,
there is a high speculation on RAU at the moment regarding tungsten mine, in mt Carbine which the result will due in early january (rumors).
this may trigger the buying on rumors.
cheers


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## AussiePaul72 (28 December 2007)

There has been a lot of increased interest in RAU over the last 2 days trading. 

We've now seen a very impressive SP increase over 60% in 2 days from an intraday low of 8.1c yesterday to an intraday high of 13.5c today on good volumes of 44 million yesterday and 51 million today.

There is still a lot of news pending for RAU and from my reckoning this is what is still to come:
* Northcote Gold Project - drilling results for remaining 6 holes
* Mt Carbine Tungsten Project - drilling results from 8 holes
* Whumbal West Tungsten Project - full set of drillhole results
* Tregoora Gold Project - drilling results

Aswell as these significant drilling results there are also plenty of other things happening for RAU:
* Expected purchase agreement to be finalised for Mt Carbine Project
* Strong interest from Chinese mining company delegation who visited some projects recently and intend coming back to visit in the new year again

I think the current RAU share price run may be related to the purchase of the Mt Carbine Project together with the pending Whumbal West drilling results as this tungsten anomoly could be proven a very significant resource!

Its easy to see that there is potentially a LOT of upside to RAU in the future! However, this is all IMHO........before investing DYOR!


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## AussiePaul72 (4 January 2008)

AussiePaul72 said:


> There has been a lot of increased interest in RAU over the last 2 days trading.
> 
> We've now seen a very impressive SP increase over 60% in 2 days from an intraday low of 8.1c yesterday to an intraday high of 13.5c today on good volumes of 44 million yesterday and 51 million today.
> 
> ...




RAU continues to march forward closing at 13.5c yesterday on an ordinary day. Quite fascinating to watch the market depth. There are high numbers on the sellers side at each level (I'm assuming from short term traders that got caught on the last rise and fall and now want out) ..... however even with these large numbers on the sellers side, the buyers are steadily chomping away at each level. I actually feel much more comfortable with the share price steadily rising this time, instead of the VERY rapid rise last time and hence the falling back last time. Fundamentals have not changed and there is lots of news to come!
How do other RAU holders and watchers perceive this movement and market depth?
Best of luck to all


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## Doris (5 January 2008)

AussiePaul72 said:


> RAU continues to march forward closing at 13.5c yesterday on an ordinary day. Quite fascinating to watch the market depth. There are high numbers on the sellers side at each level (I'm assuming from short term traders that got caught on the last rise and fall and now want out) ..... however even with these large numbers on the sellers side, the buyers are steadily chomping away at each level. I actually feel much more comfortable with the share price steadily rising this time, instead of the VERY rapid rise last time and hence the falling back last time. Fundamentals have not changed and there is lots of news to come!
> How do other RAU holders and watchers perceive this movement and market depth?
> Best of luck to all




It was between RAU and EXM yesterday.  EXM won because of the sell volume lined up on RAU... and my chart said if EXM went above .034 yesterday it would break out. I waited.  .035 then .034 and I got it!  At .037 close today I was right. It's off.  Anns coming soon should fuel it.

With the vol of RAU I was right not to buy yesterday despite the initial drop to .105.  It went down from .135 to .12 today due to those backlog sellers.  The prices are even now in the top five lines but the .15 and up sellers (probably buyers from 20-28 Dec) have to retreat to tempt me in.  I hope I have a week to get more $ so I can pick it up about 10-11 before an ann comes in!

Only three weeks left to sit all day and try to daytrade!  Then back to school!


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## Whiskers (12 January 2008)

Doris said:


> ... have to retreat to tempt me in.  I hope I have a week to get more $ so I can pick it up about 10-11 before an ann comes in!
> (




Might even tempt me back in if they get down into the 8c again, now that the POG has risen and copper seems to have bottomed. But I would really feel more comfortable if they had that luzon business completed and Mt Carbine signed and sealed just to improve the balance sheet a bit and get rid of some of the uncertainty and speculation.


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## AussiePaul72 (12 January 2008)

Whiskers said:


> Might even tempt me back in if they get down into the 8c again, now that the POG has risen and copper seems to have bottomed. But I would really feel more comfortable if they had that luzon business completed and Mt Carbine signed and sealed just to improve the balance sheet a bit and get rid of some of the uncertainty and speculation.




I think RAU has suffered from the uncertain market lately. I'm no TA expert but to me it would seem to have good resistance at around the 8.5c level. If the uncertainty continues (as you would expect Monday to be a down day) we may see RAU get down to those levels again. However, with so much news pending on significant projects I'd be surprised if it didn't at least hang around the 10c level as larger volumes of sellers seem to be reluctant to go under 10c.
Hopefully some news soon on Mt Carbine and Whumbal West!!


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## Bowey (17 January 2008)

*TUNGSTEN MINERALISATION ENCOUNTERED IN 11 OUT OF 13*

Released this morning, good news to hear they have hit Tungsten!
Anyone care to interpret the results and whether it's a substantial find?


KEY POINTS 
    Best intersections of 4 metres at 0.09% WO ,8 metres at 0.08% WO , 1 metre at 
3   3
, 1 metre at 0.35% WO , 3 metres at 0.09% WO ,2 metres at 0.10% 
0.40% WO
3 3 3  
WO
, 1 metre at 0.15% WO  and 1 metre at 0.14% WO . 
3 3 3   The previously defined Whumbal West scheelite geochemical anomaly has been 
drilled with 1,456 metres of RC and diamond drilling.    Of the total of 13 completed exploration holes drilled; 11 holes encountered 
tungsten mineralisation and only 2 were barren.    The previously defined 3,500-metre long tungsten anomaly was drilled over a 
very wide-spaced section spacing of 350 metres in the central portion of the 
anomaly over a strike length of approximately 1,300 metres.  The drilling leaves 
the mineralisation open to the north and the south.    The anomaly has been drilled for 300 metres across strike on two drill sections.    Highly favourable geological setting, with coincident geology, geochemistry and 
geophysics being confirmed by positive drilling results.    A Stage 2 drilling programme will now be designed with drilling to take place 
following the wet season.


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## Aargh! (25 January 2008)

New Ann. Great results.

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
25 January 2008
The Manager
Companies Announcement Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
REGIONAL EXPLORATION DRILLING AT TREGOORA
INTERSECTS 6 METRES AT 8.47 G/T AU

KEY POINTS
♦ Best intersections of 6m @ 8.47 g/t Au, 30m @ 0.64 g/t Au, 4m @ 3.64 g/t Au, 8m @ 1.67 g/t Au,
20m @ 0.63 g/t Au and 4m @ 2.57 g/t Au.
♦ Drilling confirms the importance of the Tregoora region to the Company’s FNQ operations.
♦ Drilling results have sufficient width and grade to add to the resource base for the proposed heap
leach operation at Tregoora that is the subject of a Feasibility Study in 2008.
♦ These results extend known mineralisation 7 kilometres north of the Retina open cut workings
and extend known mineralisation to 10 kilometres along the Retina Fault within EPM 13937.
♦ Five areas were drilled, with strong indications of potential resources for two of these areas.
♦ The geology of this region is now better understood with distinct structural bedding plane faults off
the main Retina Fault being seen as the loci for mineralisation.
♦ A stratigraphic geological target at the Red Dam Prospect has demonstrated continuous
mineralisation in the drilling and exhibits similarities to a VMS setting.
♦ A review of the drilling programme has now commenced and additional drilling will be designed to
increase the confidence of the interpretations in two of the areas in order that new resources can
be calculated, with drilling to take place following the wet season.
♦ The Company is in a strong financial position to accelerate development, moving towards
production.

The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces the results of December’s
drilling programme at the Tregoora Gold Project in Far North Queensland.
The drilling programme focussed on five target areas along the Retina Fault and has been successful in
intersecting gold in three of the five areas. Intersections and historic mining along the Retina Fault is now
known to cover a distance of 20 kilometres of strike demonstrating that this fault is a major regional
mineralising structure.

Republic said that the strong results are very encouraging and confirmed the importance of the Tregoora
region to the Company’s Far North Queensland operations.

Republic today announces that planning for the next stage of drilling at Tregoora is well advanced and would
commence shortly, weather permitting.

Managing Director of Republic Gold, Mr John Kelly said “The Company is embarking on a Feasibility Study for
its gold projects in Far North Queensland. A number of these results will be followed up with additional
drilling in order to achieve a drilling density that is sufficiently close to calculate new gold resources.
“Many of these results would be economic at the current gold price in any projected operation at Tregoora
for either oxide or sulphide mineralisation Heap leaching treatment of both oxide and sulphide
mineralisation is expected to have an attendant low unit cost base. The results of this drilling are a strong
step towards production on this very important tenement. Highly positive drilling results have been achieved
by the Company after a significant exploration effort at Tregoora in the past three years, not only along the
Retina Fault, but on other geological structures just a few kilometres to the east.
With over $9 million in the bank the Company is in a very strong position to accelerate development at
Tregoora.”

The drilling was done on five distinct prospects, which are from south to north; Retina North, Jack’s Dam
South, Terrace Creek, West Ridge and Red Dam. All of the drilling targeted geochemical anomalies, with
some areas following up older drilling as well.

The figure below shows a plan of the drillhole locations at the various prospects north of the existing
156,000 ounce indicated and inferred gold resource at Tregoora, extending the mineralisation in a northerly
direction to eight kilometres of strike length along the regionally significant Retina Fault.

Terrace Creek Prospect
The Terrace Creek Prospect is the site of the Company’s initial drilling success in this area in 2006 with
FN006 intersecting 12 metres at 2.88 g/t Au. The 2007 drilling programme saw seven new holes follow-up
this success. The best hole in the new programme, FN014 (6 metres at 8.47 g/t Au), is 100 metres north of
FN006. Hole FN031 was terminated prematurely and will require a diamond tail. The geology of this zone
now demonstrates continuity for 300 metres and is open to the north and south. The 2008 drilling
programme will in-fill drill this area to enable a resource to be calculated.

Retina North Prospect
Retina North sits at the southern end of the area drilled in 2007 amongst a nest of open pits mined in the
1990s and a series of holes drilled in the 1980s. The recent drilling has better defined the geology of this
northerly region and it is now understood that there is a series of bedding-related splay faults off the main
Retina Fault at which host mineralisation. This area now shows distinct structural similarities to the
Fosterville Mine in Central Victoria, which is the Company’s geological model for the region. Fosterville’s
historic and current resource inventory exceeds 3 million ounces of gold. There are two bedding-related
splay faults at Retina North that will be in-fill drilled in the 2008 drilling programme to enable gold resources
to be calculated in this area.

Red Dam Prospect
The Red Dam Prospect lies on a bedding splay fault at the northern end of the zone drilled. This geology
consists of a basalt /chert contact zone on the splay fault. Eight holes were drilled and all intersected
mineralisation, albeit generally narrow. Most holes have multiple intersections. The positive results and
intriguing geology with similarities to a VMS (Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide) setting means that this area
will see additional drilling in the 2008 drilling programme. If this geological setting proves to be correct this
could have very positive implications for the base metals in the area.

Jack’s Dam South and West Ridge Prospects
The Jack’s Dam South and West Ridge Prospects returned no significant intersections and will be reviewed.
General
A total of 2,327 metres of RC drilling was completed in 32 holes in the programme. Only seven of the 32
holes failed to intersect any mineralisation. Drilling intersections quoted are all downhole widths, which in
general are targeted to intersect postulated mineralised zones at angles of greater than 30°, i.e.
approaching perpendicular as far as practicable.
Planning for a 2008 field season drilling programme has commenced and will be targeted at extending and
better defining these new areas of mineralisation with a view to developing resources in these areas to feed
into the Feasibility Study for Tregoora.
The Tregoora exploration licence, EPM 13937, is 100% owned by Republic.

Mt Carbine Purchase Option Update
Work continues on the purchase of the Mt Carbine Project.

Further Drilling Results
Further drilling analysis results for the Northcote Gold Project in Far North Queensland and the Burraga
Polymetallic Project in NSW are either being examined by the Company’s geologists or are expected from the
laboratory soon.


----------



## mr_delta (25 January 2008)

Can anyone please comment on the significance of these findings. 8g/t - is this a good gold grade at this depth? Please share your thoughts so that novice like me can get some education on how to interpret these results in the future....

Many thanks in advance!!!!


----------



## hardcoremike (29 January 2008)

Sorry for being offtopic. I remember there was a thread which mentioned how to interpret the grades of gold/minerals etc.

Does anyone know the post?


----------



## Whiskers (29 January 2008)

hardcoremike said:


> Sorry for being offtopic. I remember there was a thread which mentioned how to interpret the grades of gold/minerals etc.
> 
> Does anyone know the post?




I think this might be the thread you're looking for.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=250557#post250557


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## Viginti (1 February 2008)

Mt Carbine has (temporarily??) fallen through...

RAU ann certainly suggests talks still possible...

any other thoughts??


----------



## Whiskers (1 February 2008)

Viginti said:


> Mt Carbine has (temporarily??) fallen through...
> 
> RAU ann certainly suggests talks still possible...
> 
> any other thoughts??




Not surprised they couldn't get an agreement following the Luzon debarkle.

Firstly, I wouldn't have raved on so excitedly about the project until I had it in the bag. All that has done is allow the seller to lure you up to a higher price.

Now the market is open to all comers, but RAU might have a little up their sleave from purchasing some previous records, but they would want to seal this one fairly quickly or loose investor confidence again.

The script element of the deal is probably the problem.


----------



## rapture2002ca (1 February 2008)

Well today was a real debacle for all RAU holders.

If the market didn't end up the way it did, I reckon RAU would have suffered a lot worse.

What does everyone else think about RAU situation? Is it a sinking boat?

I still believe in there other projects just that they seem pretty premature at this stage and will take years to get off the ground. 

Not sure if I should sell and try to make back my money elsewhere or put them in the bottom draw.


----------



## porkpie324 (2 February 2008)

This is just another example of my trading rules, "when a yet to dig anything out of the ground miners shares spike flog them off", this wirks 9 times out of ten, RAU is a classic, porkpie


----------



## mr_delta (3 February 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> This is just another example of my trading rules, "when a yet to dig anything out of the ground miners shares spike flog them off", this wirks 9 times out of ten, RAU is a classic, porkpie




Excellent words of wisdom Porkpie....lesson learnt the hard way in RAU for me now....bought in at 3.6c & was jumping with joy to see it hit 29c in a matter of weeks (my biggest ride on a speccie so far & I had bought a really biiiiig parcel - compared to my other holdings)....then when it started slipping from 29c to 20s & teens & low 10s I couldn't flog them off....& now this announcement :-( 

Not sure of how to play it now !!!!!


----------



## AussiePaul72 (3 February 2008)

mr_delta said:


> Excellent words of wisdom Porkpie....lesson learnt the hard way in RAU for me now....bought in at 3.6c & was jumping with joy to see it hit 29c in a matter of weeks (my biggest ride on a speccie so far & I had bought a really biiiiig parcel - compared to my other holdings)....then when it started slipping from 29c to 20s & teens & low 10s I couldn't flog them off....& now this announcement :-(
> 
> Not sure of how to play it now !!!!!




Hi Mr Delta!
Keep in mind that you have still done very well even at the current SP level. I bought RAU at 3.5c and then again at 8.8c on its way up. I sold half at 20c and free-held the rest, predominantly waiting for Whumbal West results & Mt Carbine purchase when i thought the SP might start running again. However, sellers are lined up very heavily from 10c upwards and when the news of WW was released the SP just hit the 10c barrier and went no further, in fact declined to about 9c from memory the same day. I sold remainder of my holding at 9.4c. I'm still a keen follower of RAU as i think there is still a lot of potential down the track, its just that market depth is very lop-sided at present toward sellers. 
If you're in for the long term i'd be holding but if not i'd be maybe looking for an out maybe at any level above 8c. Just my thoughts and should be taken with a grain of salt!!!!!! (Disclosure: no longer a holder)


----------



## Talia (19 February 2008)

Hi guys,


There was positive news from RAU this week how come the share price isn't increasing??
Is there a chance this share will go up to about 15c?


----------



## porkpie324 (19 February 2008)

In this currant equity climate I think it will take take a lot to shift a specky, just look at the deal Micheal Keirnan had to take with MON to raise working capitol. porkpie


----------



## Aargh! (3 April 2008)

Seems to be some buying going on, closed up strongly the last two days and currently up 13.6% after being up tp 18% up. I cant think of any updates off the top of my head that are due... Anyone able to shed any light here?


----------



## Aargh! (4 April 2008)

No-one following RAU?

Well its currently up 9% today and has a strong run this week from ~5c to 8.4c. Now my charting abilities are as good as t!ts on a bull but it looks as though its breaking through trendline convergence...

Volume seems to be increasing.


----------



## henry vanderhave (4 April 2008)

Hy guys.Im one of rau followers.Been in and out several times.This time oppies at 0.04average so looking good at moment,now 0.059.Not sure whats driving it,but could be the china visit,that is return visit, by the ceo.Something in the wind?


----------



## Viginti (4 April 2008)

Trading halt @ 15:54 this arvo.

Hoping for big things to make up for 10c entry price.....

Anyone else got any info?


----------



## Viginti (7 April 2008)

Interesting, price query AND an ann

Obviously the ann didn't excite - currently down 6.8%.

One point of interest was the reference by RAU in response to price query regarding certain other web forum...interesting that ramping in online forums is [potentially!!] influencing the market.

Luckily ASF doesn't seem to attract the same issues!!


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## Aargh! (16 April 2008)

Some strong buying today has pushed RAU up over 25% with over 23 million shares traded. Perhaps pricing in the new 720,000 oz gold acquisition?


----------



## Aargh! (18 April 2008)

Up strongly 27% today on large volume. Announcement out about 3rd visit from chinese including chinese polly.


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## CATAPILLAR (19 May 2008)

Does anyone have any new news on Republic. Was a good little mover 5-6 mths ago and ever since BLUB BLUB BLUB BLUB (that's the sound a share makes when it's going down)
CATAPILLAR


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## rx1 (26 June 2008)

Up by 1c or 15% to $0.075 before market closed. Been real quiet on the announcements side of things for the last couple of weeks. Does anyone know if they are expected to have any announcements soon? If so... i hope that they are favourable.

Been watching for a while... took the plunge the other day...

Any insights would be good...

Thanks


----------



## noirua (30 January 2009)

December Quarterly Report from Republic Gold:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090130/pdf/31fszg48mf5kkz.pdf

A quite extensive report for a Quarterly that needs a lot of studying.


----------



## Viginti (15 May 2009)

Anyone still holding, like me???

Intrigued by today's ann - very cryptic without context of what was reported in Bolivian press.  I tried to Babelfish a Bolivian news site but very patchy.  It inferred (but could be in translation) that JK was forced (by a mob) to sign some sort of deal giving up the land rights!!

Happy to trust ann that all is still OK.

Also pretty happy about the rights issue - shares issued @ 2c, currently trading 2.6c + some oppies for next year @ 3c + the year after @ 4c.  If this thing picks up I could make some nice cash!!


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## Aargh! (3 June 2009)

I have been absent from my portfolio for sometime and all of a sudden some new shares have popped up in it!

Can someone please be kind enough to share what these RAUR coded guys are from?


----------



## Cink (30 July 2009)

Currently hovering around 0.22-0.23. 

Anyone still holding?

Got in @ 2c


----------



## AussiePaul72 (30 July 2009)

Hi Cink ........ i think you mean hovering around 0.022-0.023.

I made some good money on RAU in the past. Not a current holder but i personally think at these levels they are good buying again with the projects they are holding and potential they have. The downside is that there are probably a lot of investors that got caught at higher buy in levels that may be looking to get out once the sp starts making a move.



Cink said:


> Currently hovering around 0.22-0.23.
> 
> Anyone still holding?
> 
> Got in @ 2c


----------



## jc_trader (1 September 2009)

Hmm.... there's a sudden surge in price.  Anyone have any ideas on what's causing this?  Tempted to sell as i bought at 0.026


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## fzbkk (1 September 2009)

I was watching RAU all day, as I was going to buy some at .025-.027 guess I missed the boat bad! Looks like no reason at all, it was up from .027 yesterday and closed at .031 maybe that got people interested and this is just a chase the trend up type of thing.


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## Cink (1 September 2009)

Closed at 0.045. Maybe its time to let go  

Anyone else planning to keep on holding out ?


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## Viginti (1 September 2009)

Word has it there has been a fair bit of accumulation happening over the last few weeks.....whether this surge is pump-and-dump, or people buying because they are in the know, remains to be seen.

I'll continue to hold for some time - plenty o' cash, no debt, sitting on some solid deposits - will come good eventually (either in take-over or make it happen themselves).


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## jc_trader (2 September 2009)

Hopefully not just a PnD...

I agree, strong cash flow and not much debt makes this a definate Hold for now!


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## kiddz7 (17 September 2009)

hi guys, im quite new to this forum, just wondering if you guys know what triggers the price and volume rise today?

any chance of breaking 0.06?


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## happytown (17 December 2009)

re 30/11/ ann, letter of intent signed with regional govt in bolivia and in discussions with bolivian govt re approval to explore up to 50% of el mutun - amongst world's largest underdeveloped fe projects

potential to host target resource of up to 40Bt @ 50% fe

i say, i say, i say ... 40 *billion* t (up to 50% being up to 20Bt)

indian co currently developing other 50% of project

rau currently has gold project in bolivia

sp currently 0.028

marketrazon has landed
asf 100% el mutun


----------



## sydneysider (18 December 2009)

happytown said:


> re 30/11/ ann, letter of intent signed with regional govt in bolivia and in discussions with bolivian govt re approval to explore up to 50% of el mutun - amongst world's largest underdeveloped fe projects
> 
> potential to host target resource of up to 40Bt @ 50% fe
> 
> ...




These projects are in Bolivia which is run by Morales who is a "soul mate' of his neigbor Hugo Chavez. Chavez has a habit of taking other peoples assets such as most of the resources industry in Venz. He took Las Christinas from Crystallex which is a 12 million ounce gold orebody. Both of these characters are now in Copenhagen singing the praises of Communism and death of capitalism. There are videos on You Tube of the delegates cheering wildly to the death of capitalism. IMHO this might explain why the Bolivian assets of RAU are only worth 2.7 cents because of the political risk involved. No-one can judge what will eventually happen in Bolivia if Morales stays on and becomes more like Chavez, but the risk IMHO is too high. Good luck to RAU longs, this is all a question of measuring risk. Better to be in places like Brazil which is a stones throw away.


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## wanlad1 (19 December 2009)

Yes I would agree with the accumulation and commencement of a new uptrend occuring.  I have attached a chart and some caluclations over the last 17 days which show significant accumulation in my view.

Firstly (Picture 1) I have posted the Green days as up days, Red is down days there is significant more accumulation than distribution







Next (Picture 2 chart 1) is the chart showing accumulation via the OBV, on balance volume indicator and most likely supports.  It is worthy to note a new uptrend is in the progress of forming, which will be demonstrated in chart 3






Finally (Picture 3 chart 2) shows the emerging up trend (current primary trend up) now testing supports (secondary trend down)





One would have to consider this maybe a good entry point, for the on coming year.  Drilling results Far Nth Qld, expected mid to late January 2010; production to commence 1st Qtr and then Bolivier by end of 2010 so should be  a steady stream of anns comming out during the year from begining to end.  

Yes is speculative, however when buying on support risk is minimised.  

Have a great Christmas and New Year 

P.S. Do your research and make your own decisions, this is not deamed in any way shape or form to be financial advice


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## jonojpsg (21 July 2010)

Worth keeping an eye on RAU too with Amayapampa in Bolivia moving forwards - once DFS is finished they should get a bit of a boost with fairly low cost (not sure of $/oz?) production a positive.

Reasonably priced atm IMO.


----------



## jonojpsg (1 November 2010)

Thought I'd bump this again - I don't hold but I'd like to hear opinions about why the SP hasn't appreciated more since release of the BFS.

Essentially the NPV shows $366m at $1200/oz and the company's MC is currently $20m????

Cash costs are forecast at under $400/oz, capital cost of $140m which they are going to issue $100m in bonds to cover most of at "very competitive rates".

Yes they have 1.7bn shares issued and are looking at another 400m in a SPP at 1c to raise $4m more.  Then they are looking at an equity component of the financing for another say $40m which at 1c/share would mean another 4bn shares  Still while that means a total of 6bn shares on issue, if they are making $800/oz and producing 90koz a year that is $72m a year or say $50m a year after tax and royalties, which is 0.8c per share.

Given their current SP of 1-1.1c, it seems like they have some serious rerating ahead over the next 12-18 months...with a conservative PE of 5 gives a SP of 4c!  

Any comments?


----------



## jonojpsg (4 February 2011)

Another update for anyone interested

Latest ann stated they have appointed the top bond financier in Bolivia to arrange $100m bond issue to finance Amayapampa.  Still looking pretty attractive around 1.2-1.3c with a MC of only $25m.  Producing 80k oz of gold at $450/oz makes for some nice margins even if gold drops back to $1000 (which I don't think anyone is forecasting atm)


----------



## desjosie (24 May 2011)

Very Interested in this stock.. latest report sounds promising..
http://www.republicgold.com.au/documents/announcements/980718.pdf


----------



## desjosie (27 May 2011)

More news that some may find some interest in

http://www.brr.com.au/event/81337/r...eb-zurkic-technical-director?popup=true&wl=39


----------



## desjosie (7 June 2011)

More drilling results.. if anyone intersted

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110607/pdf/01187106.pdf


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## noirua (28 September 2011)

More drilling results due as Republic Gold, ASX:RAU, move to becoming the largest gold miner, with their Amayapampa Gold Mine, in Bolivia.
http://www.republicgold.com.au
An interesting company website to browse for a while.


----------



## noirua (7 October 2011)

noirua said:


> More drilling results due as Republic Gold, ASX:RAU, move to becoming the largest gold miner, with their Amayapampa Gold Mine, in Bolivia.
> http://www.republicgold.com.au
> An interesting company website to browse for a while.




A massive drilling campaign is taking place at Amayapampa to prove up and extend Bolivia's biggest gold project. Drilling started in August and results are expected from the three drilling rigs from October to December - the tension mounts.


----------



## noirua (12 November 2011)

noirua said:


> A massive drilling campaign is taking place at Amayapampa to prove up and extend Bolivia's biggest gold project. Drilling started in August and results are expected from the three drilling rigs from October to December - the tension mounts.




Batting in three directions are Republic. 
1). Massive drilling campaign underway last August to extend and prove up resource.
2). Fund raising to be finalised for $136m plant.
3). Maintaining the Governments quest to improve the position of people in and around the Amayapampa future mine.

Voting for favorite stock forum is at: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html


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## mr. jeff (13 November 2011)

noirua said:


> Batting in three directions are Republic.
> 1). Massive drilling campaign underway last August to extend and prove up resource.
> 2). Fund raising to be finalised for $136m plant.
> 3). Maintaining the Governments quest to improve the position of people in and around the Amayapampa future mine.





Whats your interpretation of the results so far noirua, are they looking for higher grades or for an economic, large open pit with low costs ?


----------



## noirua (16 November 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Whats your interpretation of the results so far noirua, are they looking for higher grades or for an economic, large open pit with low costs ?




mr.jeff et al, as you may know Amayapampa has a chequered history and under the previous government there was a massacre at this gold mine as the army was sent in. It was in 1996 but this has always made this an environmental headache and memories run very deep - the reason the stock price is so low though a $136m cash raising is also needed.
At 0.4c a share the market cap is around $14m for a future gold mine that has a bankable feasibility study completed and reserves to last 10 years already.
At the moment there is a 3-phase drilling plan underway that started in late August and the plan is to widen and firm up the resource - results are due anytime now though RAU from past history give out results over a long period that may run to the next Autumn, in Australia that is.

Take away the Latin American risk factors and funding, then this stock is already worth far more. Risk factor about 75% and maybe 90% when drilling results are known.


----------



## noirua (1 April 2012)

noirua said:


> Batting in three directions are Republic.
> 1). Massive drilling campaign underway last August to extend and prove up resource.
> 2). Fund raising to be finalised for $136m plant.
> 3). Maintaining the Governments quest to improve the position of people in and around the Amayapampa future mine.




As most will know, everything fell apart as far as Republic are concerned at Amayapampa. Now negotiating the sale of the mine with a number of companies and from a fairly weak position; MD in Bolivia has resigned with the MD of Republic and the CFO taking over, it seems, for the final run in.

A gamble here with it likely to turn out OK for those paying just 0.2c for their stock and who knows what the price may be in the end.

It looks as if Republic should get work for the handover of the company for 12 to 18 months.


----------



## noirua (21 April 2012)

noirua said:


> As most will know, everything fell apart as far as Republic are concerned at Amayapampa. Now negotiating the sale of the mine with a number of companies and from a fairly weak position; MD in Bolivia has resigned with the MD of Republic and the CFO taking over, it seems, for the final run in.
> 
> A gamble here with it likely to turn out OK for those paying just 0.2c for their stock and who knows what the price may be in the end.
> 
> It looks as if Republic should get work for the handover of the company for 12 to 18 months.




... and so it is coming to pass. An announcement at 3pm on Friday (strange time) says, that a non-binding agreement has been reached for the sale of the company's Bolivian subsidiary; owns 100% rights over the Amayapampa future gold mine.

RAU have had to sell, with the company's market cap only $7 million at 0.2c a share and development costs at around $136 million, hardly a goer. 

Rumours in the Bolivian press say the agreement is around US$34 million which covers exploration expenditure. Some might say 'great' but I doubt any money will arrive that easily and may only be paid once certain hurdles are crossed. We all know that cash in a company is often discounted if it is going partly on overheads and a gamble on a future mine.

However, Republic at 0.2c might be seen as a fair gamble.


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## Chasero (21 April 2012)

Just wondering, the cheapest a stock can go is 0.001?

I've never seen shares this low.


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## noirua (22 April 2012)

Chasero said:


> Just wondering, the cheapest a stock can go is 0.001?
> 
> I've never seen shares this low.




I think the ASX should wake up to the problems of shares reaching such low levels. The stock traded recently at 0.1c bid - 0.2c ask, quite ridiculous, and brings something into disrepute here.

All it needs is to let stocks trading below 1c trade in 0.01c increments; this is done in some other markets, UK AIM for instance.


----------



## Chasero (22 April 2012)

noirua said:


> I think the ASX should wake up to the problems of shares reaching such low levels. The stock traded recently at 0.1c bid - 0.2c ask, quite ridiculous, and brings something into disrepute here.
> 
> All it needs is to let stocks trading below 1c trade in 0.01c increments; this is done in some other markets, UK AIM for instance.




So everyone buying in at 0.001 is basically break even or 100% profit? That's weird.

This is the penny of all pennies I guess, I'll just watch.


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## noirua (3 May 2012)

Republic Gold Limited RAU is Australia's lowest quoted stock having trade between 0.1c and 0.3c a share in recent months.  - currently 0.2c and market cap A$6.8 million. 

Basically, the company can't borrow the $136 million needed to develop the Amayapampa Gold Mine in Bolivia.

RAU have completed a preliminary non-binding agreement to sell Amayapampa. It is not known who the company is or what is involved in the purchase.

Guess is that Bolivia's State controlled mining company is involved in the bid. Top estimate so far is at $35 million but more realistic views see a figure far lower than that. 

Yes, 'you pays your money and takes your chance', that is, if you want to gamble.


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## noirua (4 October 2012)

RAU have proposed a reverse-split of 1 for 20. They appear to think they will now get their US$5.4m worth of Lion Gold of Singapore stock: downside is that this may not happen and Lion shares have fallen.

Company plans, it is thought, to raise cash fairly shortly. Odds are that Republic will survive with a mammoth loss in shareholder value.


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## noirua (21 December 2012)

noirua said:


> RAU have proposed a reverse-split of 1 for 20. They appear to think they will now get their US$5.4m worth of Lion Gold of Singapore stock: downside is that this may not happen and Lion shares have fallen.
> 
> Company plans, it is thought, to raise cash fairly shortly. Odds are that Republic will survive with a mammoth loss in shareholder value.



http://www.republicgold.com.au/docu...mpletion of sale to Liongold Corp 12Dec12.pdf

Republic Gold Ltd
http://www.republicgold.com.au/

Now Republic will get their payment in Lion Gold shares although some will be held in escrow for 3 years, a blip, a problem, an ann is expected soon as Lion Gold are insistent.
Escrow amount is US$1.566m in Lion Gold shares.
Loan amount increased to US$1.97m approx owing to Lion Gold plus interest which comes out of the US$7m offer price. ( US$5.03m will be paid to Republic Gold -- 6,481,757 shares in Lion Gold will be issued to RAU -- 2,017,752 held in escrow [conversion rate S$1.003 per share])



LionGold Share Price Chart | A78.SI - Yahoo! UK & Ireland Finance
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


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## noirua (16 June 2013)

The interesting upshot now is that that Republic Gold RAU have enough financing for their current exploration campaign in Mozambique and all liabilities are cleared with Lion Gold. They have $1.9m in Lion Gold shares that can be sold for any future financing. The Mozambique prospect was negotiated at the bottom of the market.

The issue of two free options for every RAU share is priced at 1c and 2.5c for future conversion - very interesting with Republic's closing price at 1.4c.

A micro-cap goldie priced below its 1.9m Lion Gold shareholding with no value for cash held and new Mozambique assets.

Needs your perusal, me thinks.


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## wallishking (20 September 2013)

noirua said:


> The interesting upshot now is that that Republic Gold RAU have enough financing for their current exploration campaign in Mozambique and all liabilities are cleared with Lion Gold. They have $1.9m in Lion Gold shares that can be sold for any future financing. The Mozambique prospect was negotiated at the bottom of the market.
> 
> The issue of two free options for every RAU share is priced at 1c and 2.5c for future conversion - very interesting with Republic's closing price at 1.4c.
> 
> ...





What does it mean for the issued option? How should we use that? And should we sell or hold that? I am Little confused.


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## noirua (6 October 2013)

wallishking said:


> What does it mean for the issued option? How should we use that? And should we sell or hold that? I am Little confused.




The 191,689,857 options are due to convert by 31st October 2013 and would, if converted, be worth A$1,916,985 much needed for continued diamond drilling that is taking place right now.
Gold is not the in commodity these days and all-in-costs need to be well below $1,000 per oz with the bear factors on futures coming out of the United States. The bombed out Aussie goldies does not auger well - unless this is a true bottom for the sector?


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