# CCL - Coca-Cola Amatil



## DTM (4 May 2005)

CCL dropping like there's no tomorrow.  Down 66 cents as I'm writing.  

Does anyone know why?


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## markrmau (4 May 2005)

*Re: CCL - Why is it dropping like a rock?*

Just what the market needed - another profit downgrade.

Flat sales and increased inventories.


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## Investor (6 May 2005)

*Re: CCL - Why is it dropping like a rock?*

Looks like it was oversold on that day.

When I read the announcement, I gathered that it stated the main competitor, Pepsi, had not passed on cost increases in its pricing yet and this might have affected the volume of CCL sales.

Pepsi will eventually raise its prices and the playing field will probably move towards normalcy. 

Possibility: Pepsi did not raise prices at the same time, to avoid attention of ACCC, which is currently in policing mode of price collusion.

There are several oligopolistic structures in the market. All have pricing power. Matter of time before they use it.


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## GreatPig (3 January 2006)

*Re: CCL - Why is it dropping like a rock?*

A possible double bottom completed today?

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway (3 January 2006)

*Re: CCL - Why is it dropping like a rock?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> A possible double bottom completed today?
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




wow, yep nicely picked up

however just looking at the CCL chart for the year, there seemed to be a double bottom in July, however its just dipped back down? How big does the "bottom" have to be?

Thanks

MS


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## Spiker212 (4 January 2006)

*Re: CCL - Why is it dropping like a rock?*

CCL is on my watch list but it has to clear $8.15 before I get serious. This is where long term support line meets current downtrend line.


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## slimtrader (4 January 2006)

*Re: CCL - Why is it dropping like a rock?*

Double bottom looking good. Got in at 771. Consensus Bloomberg target around 850


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## Scratch (19 February 2006)

*CCL*

Hot upon it's freefall into the basement it now has gone XD 20Feb06.   anyone have any words of encouragement and target entry.

Scratch

Who me give   advice??


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## zoo (20 February 2006)

Cant give advice, but after ex 17.5c div you are looking at 6.70 plus continued weakness in the short term...imo we will probably see under 6.50 ..we all have different investment ideas,risk and methods, the market is an unforgiving beast to pros and newbies alike...always have an exit plan no matter if its bhp or imp....cheers


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## Julia (20 February 2006)

Huntleys have a Buy on it today on the basis that the stock is now undervalued.

Julia


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## Ann (22 February 2006)

Hi Julia,

Interesting info, thanks. It certainly helped the price to bounce off a long term support/resistance line. It will be interesting to see if it is enough to keep the stock in an upward movement or will it consolidate for a while?


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## Gigabyte (4 May 2006)

AFR and SMH have posted articles today re: CCL stating profits will rise by  rise by 4.5%.  Which is minimal compared to their previous performance. 

The fizzy drinks company has forecast a 7 per cent increase in costs this year - at the higher end of its earlier guidance - due to higher prices for sugar, aluminium and PET resin, which is used to make plastic bottles.

Have held the stock for a while and don't like where its going.


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## Julia (4 May 2006)

Gigabyte said:
			
		

> AFR and SMH have posted articles today re: CCL stating profits will rise by  rise by 4.5%.  Which is minimal compared to their previous performance.
> 
> The fizzy drinks company has forecast a 7 per cent increase in costs this year - at the higher end of its earlier guidance - due to higher prices for sugar, aluminium and PET resin, which is used to make plastic bottles.
> 
> Have held the stock for a while and don't like where its going.




Hello Gigabyte,

Agreed.  It has wallowed around for too long now, and then this pessimistic outlook which has engendered several negative recommendations from analysts.  I'm going to put a sell order in now - think it will continue dropping.
Are you going to hold on?

Julia


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## twojacks28 (4 May 2006)

another thing is that you could possibly short the stock as all state schools are going to fade out all soft drinks and private schools are heading the same way.


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## Gigabyte (5 May 2006)

Hi Julia,

My brokers has a buy on the stock as they feels its undervalued. It also has an annual dividend of 0.31c.  

For now I'm going to hold......


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## ctp6360 (5 May 2006)

> another thing is that you could possibly short the stock as all state schools are going to fade out all soft drinks and private schools are heading the same way.




As well they should, have you seen how fat kids are these days? They should have the kids doing 30 mins compulsory exercise every morning and eliminate all sugary and salty foods from the canteen, if parents can't look after their kids at least the schools should!


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## Julia (5 May 2006)

Gigabyte said:
			
		

> Hi Julia,
> 
> My brokers has a buy on the stock as they feels its undervalued. It also has an annual dividend of 0.31c.
> 
> For now I'm going to hold......




Good luck with it Gigabyte.  A few analysts have had a Buy on it for quite a while.  That hasn't caused any consistent uptrend in the SP which is all I'm interested in.  Current forecasts are for little improvement until probably 2008.
In the meantime I can have that money in BHP e.g. which is what I did yesterday - sold CCL, accepted a loss, and bought more BHP while it was down.

Julia


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## Gigabyte (5 May 2006)

You make an extremely valid point, as you may tell I still rely on analysis recommendations being a newbie to the stock market.  However, slowly learning........

One thing, you used the term SP, what does that mean?  

Gigabyte


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## chansw (29 May 2006)

Alcohol may be on Coke's horizon
From:  By Katherine Jimenez
May 29, 2006 

http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19286361-462,00.html 

Coca-Cola Amatil chief Terry Davis yesterday confirmed the company, which already dominates Australia's $9 billion soft drink market through its soft drinks, water, sports drinks and juices brands, planned to enter the alcohol market.

"We've never ruled out being in the alcohol business," Mr Davis told Nine Network's Business Sunday program. 

"Given the strength of our distribution capability, the strength of our sales force capability and new product development, I would think over the next three to five years it is a fairly logical move for us." 

Mr Davis, who headed Foster's wine division for more than four years, did not say how CCA would enter the market or what type of alcohol it was interested in distributing. 

One clue might come from Coca-Cola Japan, which launched a low-alcohol beer-like beverage in 2004. 

Mr Davis said that entering the alcohol market was not on management's agenda today but that it was something CCA was going to "actively look at". 
Part of the reason CCA is interested in alcohol has to do with falling consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks. 

Coke has offset that slippage by entering into health and wellbeing drink markets, such as water, juice and sports drinks. 

In the past five years, revenue from non-carbonated beverages has grown from 5 per cent of group revenue to more than 20 per cent. 

Management pushed the boundaries even further last year when it acquired canned fruit and baked bean business SPC Ardmona for $500 million. 

Mr Davis said its newly launched Coke Zero - aimed at young men - had "exceeded our expectations". 

"It's grown the cola category by six to eight per cent just in the first few months," he said.


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## Gigabyte (11 August 2006)

*Coca Cola Amatil*

Hi All,

Has anyone being watching the price of CCL lately.  Its come down from $6.80 to $6.00 in the last 11 days.

Would love to know what your thoughts are on the stock, I know its had some bad publicitiy lately and thats probably driven the stock down but I wondering if its starting to look like a good buy.....

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Gigabyte


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## CanOz (11 August 2006)

Well its interesting because it looked like another exhaustion gap, but it set a new low today and from what i've read it could continue lower (continuation gap) if it sets a new low again on monday. It probed lower today but closed off the low, so thats a good sign.

It gapped down on high volume back in May (4th) too, but then the next day it looks like all of the sellers were removed and demand appears to have crept back in and the trend moved higher and filled in the gap.

Look to Monday to confirm the trend.

Thats the way i see it as an amateur with a short term technical interest.

I'm sure there must be some fundemental opinions about it too.   

Good luck.


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## Buster (23 February 2007)

This is a very quiet thread, particularly condisdering what CCL have been doing over the last week or so.. She's all over the shop like a mad woman, with no real news to speak of.. 

The results announcement didn't seem particularly impressive.. but she's been jumping all around the place with 30 cent price changes..

Anyone care to have a stab at the reason??

Cheers,

Buster


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## Buster (3 January 2008)

Wow,

Unbelievably quiet in this thread.. cant believe I was the last poster..

Anyway, similar question to my last.. everything red on the board today, except this stock up 22 cents..

What gives??

Regards,

Buster


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## CAB SAV (18 June 2008)

Judging by the stock slide, people must be sniffing coke not drinking it.
Looking for opinions on it. Lowest target price I've seen is $9.11 few months ago.

Thanks


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## gfresh (17 November 2008)

Takeover bid by LNN on the table.. 

$6.15 cash/share + 0.469 LNN shares for each CCL. 

Implied offer price of $10.35 based on Friday's prices.


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## prawn_86 (17 November 2008)

gfresh said:


> Takeover bid by LNN on the table..
> 
> $6.15 cash/share + 0.469 LNN shares for each CCL.
> 
> Implied offer price of $10.35 based on Friday's prices.




Obviously that is just for cokes Aussie and NZ operations yeh?

Is coka-cola listed in the US also?


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## gfresh (17 November 2008)

Yup, CCA is a separate company to the US listed co.. although the US owns around 30% of the local operations, so they would have to accept the offer. 

While CCA has rejected it as being too low, at the moment market seems to be hoping for a counter-offer.

LNN is in a trading halt, although looks like they are just about to come out of it in a couple of mins - refer to ann 

Multiple options, including an all-cash offer 



> The proposed consideration mix under the Base Offer (approximately 60% cash/40% scrip)
> would provide CCA shareholders with both an attractive cash premium and an ongoing
> participation in the benefits of the merged group.
> 
> ...


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## dink182 (17 November 2008)

What is this likely to do for LNN stocks when the offer is declined or taken up?


Also, CCL does local distribution for Jim Beam and various other Liquor and Beer brands. That is why LNN would be interested in buying them out.


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## skc (17 November 2008)

gfresh said:


> While CCA has rejected it as being too low, at the moment market seems to be hoping for a counter-offer.




What do you mean by counter-offer? Or do you mean higher offer?

CCL is trading below the implied LNN offer price which means the market on average thinks that the deal may not go ahead, or don't like the deal in it's current form.  

The encouraging aspect is that LNN acquisition funds are backed by Kirin in the form of equity above the current LNN share price, which is rare in this market environment where new equities are often heavily discounted.


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## alphaman (17 November 2008)

I think it just means he's hoping for a higher offer.

As a stand-alone CCL is expensive even at $8, so $10.8 will pay off only if LNN can realise the synergies. Financially I don't think Kirin has much room to go higher, but you never know, the corporate executives are very good at wasting shareholder funds.


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## AS414 (3 December 2008)

Some discussion on LN's (potential) motives here:

http://internationalbs.wordpress.com/2008/11/17/more-beer-moves-down-under/


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## AS414 (30 December 2008)

More action in the soft drink sector with Japanese brewing giant Asahi outbidding CCL for Cadbury's Aussie Schweppes business.  More discussion here: http://internationalbs.wordpress.com/2008/12/29/more-action-brewing/


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## AS414 (5 January 2009)

More on the manoeuvers in the industry: http://internationalbs.wordpress.com/2009/01/05/whose-shout-is-it-again/


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## gfresh (6 August 2009)

Boing!

Massive surge in the closing auction to finish at from $9.56 at 3:59p to $10.00 (+4.6%).. Or did somebody press the wrong button?   

Takeover must be on the cards? waiting for the ann.


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## gfresh (7 August 2009)

haha, looks like somebody f'ed up last night.. I can only guess, but the algorithm the big boys use to set the price they want it to close at (because the market isn't manipulated of course) forgot to place the matching sell orders in the que to balance it..so instead it matched at way above where it was supposed to. Lack of true liquidity probably didn't help in that situation. 

Corresponding dump this morning, like it never happened


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## bloomy88 (12 August 2010)

Good results for CCL today:

- Record first half net profit of $212.7 million, up 12.1 per cent on the prior corresponding half year. 

- EBIT was $373.8 million, up 10 per cent, and earnings per share rose 10.1 per cent to 28.3 cents.

- SP up 47 or 4.18% to $11.72.

- Interim dividend of 20.5 cps, up from 18.5 cps last year.

Looks like CCLs Indonesian operations are really taking off, with growth of 20%.

I have liked there growth opportunities for a while now and it looks like they are going to continue growing going from the CEO's comments.

Debt levels have been reduced steadily, falling from $2,159m in 06 to $1,710m now. With interest cover increasing from 3.8x to 5.6x over the same period.

Any other thoughts on CCL?


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## Buckfont (12 August 2010)

bloomy88 said:


> Good results for CCL today:
> 
> - Record first half net profit of $212.7 million, up 12.1 per cent on the prior corresponding half year.
> 
> ...




A world wide company as CCL will always survive. It is solid as long as there are people in the world that like brown fizzy non alcoholic drinks and mineral water. 

A company that was founded in 1886 and is still alive today is a testament to the product and its selling power. It is ingrained into almost every country in the world, and if it disappears so shall we all.


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## bjay51 (18 September 2010)

Hi,
I am new to this forum. Wasn't sure if to post on this thread or start a new one. Decided the former.
I hold CCL shares and was looking to accumulate more. However, I have been wondering why the share price has risen so quickly over the last week. That's good, but I wanted to buy in at a lower price. I haven't seen any announcements from CCL since the AGM. Does anyone else have any information that might explain the rise?
Rgds, bjay51


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## JTLP (8 November 2011)

This has been getting a bit of press action lately - saw it on SkyBusiness news being mentioned by a couple of analysts as a top 10 buy of the future.

Essentially they were saying that CCL is one of those true defensive stocks that has continued to rise in falling markets. People will always buy coke ra ra.

I'm pretty sceptical of the SPC acquisition - looks like it may cost a bit and not be that profitable...

Anyway down 1% today but trading close to 52 week highs.


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## ENP (29 October 2012)

Any one care to share a thought on why you would own CCL as opposed to the Coca Cola (KO) listed in the States?

CCL has limited exposure to growth economies, whilst the parent company in the US has exposure to India, China, Brazil, Russia, etc.


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## prawn_86 (29 October 2012)

ENP said:


> CCL has limited exposure to growth economies, whilst the parent company in the US has exposure to India, China, Brazil, Russia, etc.




Growth exposure in Asia such as Indonesia etc aren't enough? I saw something recently about them now having a manufacturing plant in Indonesia


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## barrisbear (21 January 2013)

been looking at CCL for a few months now. bargin blue chip that will remain forever with indo markets?

has it only dipped due to the announcement the health council is TRYING to enforce strictly sales/ marketing?


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## Ves (21 January 2013)

CCL has been a pretty reliable business over the long-term and has some fairly resilient revenue streams.

However, I don't believe it is a "bargain" and these prices.  At best it is probably fairly priced.

Reading the trading update in December 2012, I would assume EBIT will probably come in around the $880-910m range for the 2012 financial year.

Market cap is $10.2B and long-term debt is just over $2 billion in the 2011 accounts (the trading update says that 2012 will be in line with this). Enterprise value is about $12.2B.

EV / EBIT = approx 14 times.

Without looking too deeply into their cash flow or anything of that nature, some back of the envelop calcs tell me that ROIC is about 17% and the payout ratio is around 73%.   *If* they achieved similar returns on their retained earnings *going forward * that is an implied growth rate of about 4.5-5%.

I would suggest that for this to be a bargain they would need to be growing faster than 5% per annum if I was paying 14 times EBIT. 

Does their move into alcoholic beverages and Indonesia mean that they will grow in excess of 5%?


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## RandR (23 January 2013)

Ves said:


> CCL has been a pretty reliable business over the long-term and has some fairly resilient revenue streams.
> 
> However, I don't believe it is a "bargain" and these prices.  At best it is probably fairly priced.
> 
> ...




Hey V, 

Thanks for your input. EBIT growth in Indonesia and PNG was 19.3%, if that can be maintained as it grows as a percentage of their EBIT it would be quite impressive (obviously *quite unlikely*) but im sure theirs no end of dreamers that believe it probably could be.

I think its a little overpumped still at the moment (for me) I dont think its a deal until its below $11 personally. I like the reliable nature of the business and earnings but not interested much at all unless it heads below there.

The real key with this stock I think for the sort of investing you do is even if CCL does come down to a deal making price to always compare the purchase with that of KO. Obviously no point snapping up the bottler at a good price if you can get the concentrate/rights seller at a better deal. But then when purchasing KO over CCL direct currency exposure needs to be considered which could make the deal much more favourable atm

Id much rather own KO to CCL in the long term. (for what its worth KO is also trading at roughly about 14 times EV/EBIT at the moment aswell)


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## Ves (23 January 2013)

RandR said:


> Hey V,
> 
> Thanks for your input. EBIT growth in Indonesia and PNG was 19.3%, if that can be maintained as it grows as a percentage of their EBIT it would be quite impressive (obviously *quite unlikely*) but im sure theirs no end of dreamers that believe it probably could be.
> 
> ...



Thanks RandR - I think the comparison in investment between KO and CCL is a good point.  It's very interesting that they are trading on a similar earnings multiple.

Re the growth in Indonesia - this growth still has capex requirements (either funded by earnings or debt) and I don't see any reason why they would generate returns on incremental capital at a faster rate than their historical metrics in Australia.   19% EBIT growth p.a must mean they are throwing a fair bit of capital at it and I think this is highlighted by the recent acquisitions and purchases of plant.  I think the main worry is that the returns in Indonesia turn out to be sub-par down the track - that's the worst case scenario.  They seem to be fairly good capital allocators over the journey, so that may be seen as unlikely?

cheers
V


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## JTLP (9 April 2013)

Hey guys,

Been watching this one for a while...raced up to $15 now sitting mid $14's. They've experienced some pretty phenomenal growth over the last decade. I think once they fully implement the liquor side of the business they should see some pretty solid results; along with the Indo growth.

SPC section is a bit of a dog; yield isn't great...overall thoughts?


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## tinhat (9 April 2013)

JTLP said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Been watching this one for a while...raced up to $15 now sitting mid $14's. They've experienced some pretty phenomenal growth over the last decade. I think once they fully implement the liquor side of the business they should see some pretty solid results; along with the Indo growth.
> 
> SPC section is a bit of a dog; yield isn't great...overall thoughts?




Great defensive with two growth prospects. Ongoing opportunities for higher margin specialty beverages in Australia plus the same again as well as a lot of growth prospects for the core Coke brand in Indonesia.  I shake my head when I think that I sold this stock at $11 because it was "going nowhere"  with a dividend yield well below other defensive stock at that time. I still keep renewing my standing order with Commsec for a buy at $12. Great defensive stock - will wait for an opportunity to buy (probably not at $12 unless the Koreans pop a missile off but I live in hope - j/k).


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## JTLP (7 May 2013)

Hi Tinhat,

Are you in today?

I don't see a lot wrong with the announcement  as I believe it was what the market was expecting? (although clearly not!). EBIT down 8%-9%.

Special dividend (2.5cents) to cover the non-franked portion of divvie I believe.
Intraday low of $12.87 - currently $13.05.

See what happens at the close!


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## ROE (7 May 2013)

Coles and Woolies are on to them but I think they play it down..
The two giants want to squeeze ccl margin and they seem to be winning as demonstated in their 1st half

I have doubt about their second half forecast with coles and woolies on their tail easy days are over until
Coles and Woolies back off, not likely in next 12-24 months....


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## tinhat (7 May 2013)

JTLP said:


> Hi Tinhat,
> 
> Are you in today?
> 
> ...




My days of catching falling knives are truly over and I mean it this time (he says as he bought GRR a couple of days ago!).

A company that isn't growing earnings can't justify a PE of 20. I look at CCL as a long term defensive growth stock. The real story is the long term potential of the Indonesian market. I got shaken out of CCL at 11.00 in 2011. I'll certainly keep my eye on it if it gets down below 12.00

It might rebound in the short term but I can't see it being good value above the 11.00-12.00 range.

One thing that concerns me is why CCL is hanging onto the SPC Admona business. Surely they should have divested of it a few years ago now.

CCL does encounter some radical price moves that are quickly reversed every blue moon. Perhaps today is one of them. The share price has been drifting up on volume that has been waning this year so it may have peaked for the current cycle?


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## Gringotts Bank (7 May 2013)

A lot of bad press relating to the health effects of soft drinks has to impact sales at some point.


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## VSntchr (7 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A lot of bad press relating to the health effects of soft drinks has to impact sales at some point.




Yeah but even if thats true, its only at the expense of some of CCL's other brands which are perceived to be healthy....management is waay ahead on this one...


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## ROE (7 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A lot of bad press relating to the health effects of soft drinks has to impact sales at some point.




I don't buy this argument.... Coles and Woolie squeeze their margin is more pressing and more impact 
Most health studies barely change human consumption habit if it does it in low single digit.

If my stocks get hit for this sort of reason I load up 

The healthy guys already healthy and they know what they eat and drink, the other just doesn't care even if you throw 100 studies at them.

It is actually very hard to stay healthy and eat healthy, it required strict discipline just like money management and investing.
very small population can do this.


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## Gringotts Bank (7 May 2013)

How do other suppliers to Coles and Woolies combat this tactic?  Pull the product off the shelves until consumers complain?  Or would Coles/Woolies just push their home brand and win market share?


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## skc (7 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How do other suppliers to Coles and Woolies combat this tactic?  Pull the product off the shelves until consumers complain?  Or would Coles/Woolies just push their home brand and win market share?




There's no viable tactic. Branded producted who don't innovate and don't have brand power will get their margin and market share eroded over time. The structural decline of (most) FMCG brands is here to stay imo.

Coke is the biggest and baddest of them all when it comes to brand and marketing... and if they can't manage the supermarket channel's growing power, other suppliers don't have a chance.


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## ROE (7 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How do other suppliers to Coles and Woolies combat this tactic?  Pull the product off the shelves until consumers complain?  Or would Coles/Woolies just push their home brand and win market share?




Not much supplier can do here apart from regulator intervene (cant see that happening, they make a lot of noises and headlines but nothing ever happen for the last 10 years) just like the unhealthy habit of Dominos pizza and fast food...lot of noises and these sucker keep rake in the profit...

the only sure way is more retail competition and not let one or two retailer dominate the market....
so far Australia failed in this space....

it sometimes said we are usually a few years behind the American trend 

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/11...-cola-from-its-shelves-but-dont-cry-for-coke/
http://www.bevnet.com/news/2006/06-08-2006-wal-mart_coke_powerade_cce_private

I am surprise that management doesnt take this thing as a serious threat and splash extra cash on dividend when profit barely grow
and this stock is price for growth 5-10% a year....the time has come for a major re-rating...


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## Gringotts Bank (7 May 2013)

Sounds a bit grim.  Thanks skc, ROE.


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## ROE (7 May 2013)

Coke still a good business it just has been price too expensively

so the fall in stock price is just a correction to a normal level and the expectation of
it growing going forward has to put on hold while they fight Coles and Woolies.

If you bought it cheap many years ago then it just a normal process of the business going through
as they grow older, bigger, smaller etc..

but I certainly wouldn't buy at this sort of price, it just has no margin of safety and price for perfection
in my book that is a recipe for disaster as a stock holder...

Never buy any business price for perfection regardless of who they are is my moto...you can control the planet
but if there is no safety net, you will get tripped it is not if it's when....


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## Tyler Durden (7 May 2013)

ROE said:


> The healthy guys already healthy and they know what they eat and drink, the other just doesn't care even if you throw 100 studies at them.
> 
> It is actually very hard to stay healthy and eat healthy, it required strict discipline just like money management and investing.
> very small population can do this.




I agree. Soft drinks are somewhat addictive - and most people don't bother making the effort to quit their addictions. If people are going to continue smoking despite those horrific lung cancer ads on tv and buses, then they sure as hell aren't going to stop drinking soft drinks because it contains sugar.


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## JTLP (7 May 2013)

I actually work for a company that made some headlines battling with Woolworths recently...and have to admit it's a big bad world and FMCGs don't stand the greatest chance (read SKCs point).

If you look at the UK - there is really only room for 1 - 2 branded products and the rest homebrand. The 2 majors openly state that their ambition is to have 20% of own branded products on the shelves - it drives better $ and margins etc etc.

Coke continually innovates and does this very well, are clearly the #1 player and really nobody can hold a candle to them in terms of taste...however what they pull out in the guidance is interesting. Retailers use these huge brands all the time to get people through the door...1/2 price a coke 1.25L in Woolworths and you can guarantee their basket spends for that week will be huge..vice versa for Coles. Whilst there are only 2 retailers they will squeeze and squeeze to get more of these deals and more of these baskets. This is definitely going to have an impact on the bottom line.

If all else fails and the retailers are feeling greedy...they can just import :. I believe both majors have teams actively looking for import options...


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## chops_a_must (7 May 2013)

The other head wind they have, and it was raised at their AGM is the push towards a national container deposit scheme.

It will happen eventually. The research is pretty clear and it results in pretty large savings for government.


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## Tyler Durden (8 May 2013)

Bought in at $12.97 today. Disappointed to see it close at $12.70, but in for the long haul.


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## coolcup (9 May 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> Bought in at $12.97 today. Disappointed to see it close at $12.70, but in for the long haul.




Me too. Got in at $12.79, glad it is back up today, but happy to put in bottom drawer for a while.


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## herzy (9 May 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> Bought in at $12.97 today. Disappointed to see it close at $12.70, but in for the long haul.




Any reasons for either of you?


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## Tyler Durden (10 May 2013)

herzy said:


> Any reasons for either of you?




I'm always on the lookout for blue chip/defensive stocks that take a dive due to some (hopefully) momentary bad news/phase that will (hopefully) blow over in due course.


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## tinhat (13 June 2013)

Knife Catching Mode - automatic!

Have been renewing a small order to buy at $12 for months now. Got filled this morning. 7% grossed up yield for a "defensive" growth stock will sit nicely in the SMSF. Will wait before buying more. Between $11 and $11.50 would be nice (forward looking PE around 14-15).


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## JTLP (13 June 2013)

tinhat said:


> Knife Catching Mode - automatic!
> 
> Have been renewing a small order to buy at $12 for months now. Got filled this morning. 7% grossed up yield for a "defensive" growth stock will sit nicely in the SMSF. Will wait before buying more. Between $11 and $11.50 would be nice (forward looking PE around 14-15).




I just looked at this and saw the same thing...I guess I'll wait out what happens with the container deposit scheme.
Seems to have broken some support and probably needs to hang above the $11.50ish region in Dec 2011.

Like the CCL business but whilst it's sliding I'll bite my tongue and wait. 

PS divvie isn't fully franked!


----------



## tinhat (13 June 2013)

JTLP said:


> PS divvie isn't fully franked!




Dang! It use to be.


----------



## coolcup (13 June 2013)

tinhat said:


> Dang! It use to be.




I don't think it has helped that Terry Davis (CEO) and some directors sold a swag of shares following their recent profit downgrade. I would have thought the falling A$ would have helped some of their offshore earnings leading into results.


----------



## ROE (13 June 2013)

action speaks louder than words ....they talk up the second half while off loading a fair chunk of their holding.
This is one plus one = 1.5 -

Watch out if second half earning is not up to expectation ... I say 60% they wont achieved the desire 2nd half earning ....


----------



## Tyler Durden (13 June 2013)

tinhat said:


> Knife Catching Mode - automatic!
> 
> Have been renewing a small order to buy at $12 for months now. Got filled this morning. 7% grossed up yield for a "defensive" growth stock will sit nicely in the SMSF. Will wait before buying more. Between $11 and $11.50 would be nice (forward looking PE around 14-15).




Good job. If I had more cash I'd load up at this level too.


----------



## Ves (13 June 2013)

ROE said:


> action speaks louder than words ....they talk up the second half while off loading a fair chunk of their holding.
> This is one plus one = 1.5 -
> 
> Watch out if second half earning is not up to expectation ... I say 60% they wont achieved the desire 2nd half earning ....



Seems to have been two things happen in the last two months:   prices at both Woolies and Coles have decreased for Coke.  And secondly there seems to be more "special deals" on Coke products in both stores.

The trend of the big duopoly chipping away at Coke's margins seem to be getting worse before it gets better in my view.    I would be surprised if you weren't right about them missing guidance. 

I would be waiting until this got really sold-off before making any entries.   I think you need to be more conservative with this one going forward than a lot of analysts were thinking until recently.

Don't get me wrong it's a good business... but everything has it's price.  Still over 12 times EBIT with earnings uncertainty.


----------



## JTLP (13 June 2013)

tinhat said:


> Dang! It use to be.




I was wrong - their report says 100% franked however my broker says 75%?

Anywhoo a lot of other contributions; something else that has to be hurting them is the SPC business. Maybe if they offloaded that it would provide a jump in the SP


----------



## ROE (13 June 2013)

Ves said:


> I would be waiting until this got really sold-off before making any entries.   I think you need to be more conservative with this one going forward than a lot of analysts were thinking until recently.




When you have brokers and most people said this is the stock to have and
yadida and people see a price drop and they said let load it up it will takes sometimes
for the market to re-adjust its price.

CCL to me is expensive, they price for growth, defensive, good management, fund mangers and brokers love

Last half result see their growth gone, the good management bit actually not true, they have average management but because of coke position people think they got good management..look at 
Terry Davis when he was at Foster anything good happening there? ....

If they are good managers they would never bought SPC in the first place...
haven't they seen the cost of manufacturing in Australia for the last 10 years and the power of coles and woolies?

Fund managers still love them and the so called defensive.

the next 18 months will see if these still hold true, and if not quick and rapid price adjustment will follow

so at these price there is no margin of safety .....when you buy stuff without margin of safety 
things tend to go wrong more often than not


----------



## Ves (13 June 2013)

ROE said:


> so at these price there is no margin of safety .....when you buy stuff without margin of safety
> things tend to go wrong more often than not



Completely agree with your post.  Especially this part!


----------



## ROE (14 June 2013)

http://www.afr.com/p/business/sunday/coke_boss_is_fizzing_mad_at_major_EWA5cveP8ZXopDhn6bJ80O

When Coles said you are too expensive, lower your price you know whats coming....


----------



## VSntchr (14 June 2013)

ROE said:


> When you have brokers and most people said this is the stock to have and
> yadida and people see a price drop and they said let load it up it will takes sometimes
> for the market to re-adjust its price.
> 
> ...




A great post that contains wisdom that many can learn a lot from...

You have a knack of summing up the picture so well in a simple and concise format.


----------



## ROE (20 August 2013)

And so the re-adjustment of price begins as expected...


----------



## skc (20 August 2013)

ROE said:


> Watch out if second half earning is not up to expectation ... I say 60% they wont achieved the desire 2nd half earning ....




Turns out to the be correct call. Full year guidance lowered from flat to "-4% to flat".

Literally running out of fizz. Trouble spot is definitely Australian supermarket channels, offset by growth in Indonesia.

Low of $11.76 back in June cuold be reached over the next few sessions one would think, and further support below at $11.50 is well within sight, especially if we get a few analyst downgrades tomorrow.


----------



## Ves (20 August 2013)

ROE said:


> And so the re-adjustment of price begins as expected...



I still think it's expensive -  $10-11 looks more reasonable to me.  But it's a large cap - the price of these always seems close to "perfection" for mine (outside of utter panic, which is rare).  Hard to see why people were paying 14x EBIT for this when I last posted.


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## ROE (20 August 2013)

The beauty of the stock market unlike other asset like housing is you don't have to do any thing when you 

don't like the price, many other opportunities pop up to deploy your cash all the time...its not like if you miss one it gone forever.....there are opportunities in bull and bear market so you really NEVER miss out on anything ....

just wait until the price is right and with the stock market there is always something available for the price you want to pay


----------



## Sparx (26 September 2013)

So CCL will be re-entering the brewing/alcohol market in December. Any thoughts on what effect this will have on SP, etc. I see they have appointed a new director.


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## coolcup (26 September 2013)

Not sure it will have a massive impact. It will take time for new brands to make a meaningful impact on this monster's earnings. The key headwind for this stock is, and will remain, their ongoing battle on margins with the supermarket majors.


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## notting (27 September 2013)

It's had a good 4 days and is posturing.
Don't underestimate Indonesia.  200mil compared to our 24


----------



## skc (27 September 2013)

notting said:


> It's had a good 4 days and is posturing.
> Don't underestimate Indonesia.  200mil compared to our 24




IMO dental services in Indonesia may be worth a punt...


----------



## notting (27 September 2013)

LOL.

Jenny Craig.


----------



## coolcup (27 September 2013)

notting said:


> It's had a good 4 days and is posturing.
> Don't underestimate Indonesia.  200mil compared to our 24




Agree. This is the massive longer term demographic underpinning for the CCL stock price.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (16 October 2013)

coolcup said:


> Agree. This is the massive longer term demographic underpinning for the CCL stock price.




I've briefly looked at CCL as a possible acquisition.  I understand that CCL has been building its Indonesian operations for some time.  Without the benefit of looking at the split between revenue from local operations and from international operations, I wonder just how much profit the Indonesian operations actually contribute to CCL's bottom line.

I'm also a bit leery of their move back into alcohol.  Their acquisition of SPC Ardmona has been a bit of a disaster, and I wonder whether the alcohol move will open up another opportunity for the duopoly of WOW and WES to squeeze CCL again.


----------



## DJG (7 November 2013)

Can anyone give rationale as to why they think CCL has dropped 2%? - They've released their: *CCA Indonesia Investor Trip - November 2013* today if that's any reason? - It seemed pretty good to me.


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## notting (7 November 2013)

They recently downgraded profit and today fell through the top end of a support line at 12.20 which held yesterday.
It's now sitting right on weekly entrancement of 61.8.  If buyers don't come in now with volume it's looking at $10 technically.  
Today was a very week day, not good but if your longer term go back to sleep.


----------



## ROE (7 November 2013)

DJG said:


> Can anyone give rationale as to why they think CCL has dropped 2%? - They've released their: *CCA Indonesia Investor Trip - November 2013* today if that's any reason? - It seemed pretty good to me.




Market adjusting its price since the 5-7% down grade....

They missed their own guidance ...said flat profit this year when they announce a shock drop in profit in first half
but maintain second half will make up for it but second failed to deliver ...now likely to be down 5-7% for the year

I express my doubt when they said profit going to be flat after first half profit is down 
Coles and Woolies the 2 giants want Coke to drop price, Schweppes 
discounting their drink 30%-50% cheaper than Coke .... and they think they can go against that trend?

I think the market will reprice this stock down at some stage, they still got the benefit of the doubt but another down grade or two
it sure wont be trading close to this price


----------



## ROE (7 November 2013)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I've briefly looked at CCL as a possible acquisition.  I understand that CCL has been building its Indonesian operations for some time.  Without the benefit of looking at the split between revenue from local operations and from international operations, I wonder just how much profit the Indonesian operations actually contribute to CCL's bottom line.
> 
> .




Not much I dont think because they grow that market but it doesn't add to bottom line or Coles and Woolies squeeze their ball harder than they want to admit ... 

it becomes a new normal I dont buy cokes until Coles and Woolies discount them 40%-50% and it happen fairly often 
then I load up 2  cases or so that will last me a few months till the next discount else I go Pepsi


----------



## DJG (7 November 2013)

Ah yes, I knew about the guidance but didn't think it would effect a day or two later.
I didn't bother checking out the charts for any support areas.

Could be a decent buy fundamentally if it does sit around the $10 area. They've still got plenty of Indonesia kicking into gear around the '14/15 year and not yet in full swing I believe (from the small amounts of research I've done).


----------



## jdenhaan (18 November 2013)

Anyone else think this stock is a tad oversold? It's trading way below the 5 year trend line. Looks like a very tempting long term buy at the moment.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 November 2013)

ROE said:


> Coles and Woolies the 2 giants want Coke to drop price, Schweppes
> discounting their drink 30%-50% cheaper than Coke .... and they think they can go against that trend?



I would think that Coke has a significant extent of brand loyalty and thus pricing power and their market isn't just supermarkets.

Sure, there are some who will just buy whatever brand is on special this week but Coke is one of the most immediately recognised brands (of anything) just about everywhere in the world. Nobody asks for Pepsi as a mixer with alcohol, for example, it's always Coke.

There would be a limit, but the brand itself would seem to have significant value associated with it. That plus McDonald's sells Coke but not rival products and they are (I assume) a significant seller of soft drinks.

PS - I'm told that Woolworths has recently changed thier home brand soft drinks and that the new cola drink is, well, undrinkable unless you really are dying of thirst. I generally not a drinker of such things but was persuaded to try a glass of this stuff after a friend was complaining. Took one sip and spat it out - dreadful stuff. And that's from someone who can't normally tell the difference between major brands of soft drinks. Woolies seem to have lost the plot with this one so presumably that will drive at least some customers back to the major brands be it Coke, Pepsi or whatever.


----------



## DJG (19 November 2013)

I'm hoping to get in with a long term buy shortly. Might suss out if it drops any further since I think there is one more support level it is around (by memory) and below that is somewhat of a technical free-fall (not so bad for fundies).

Remember CCL's not so positive SPC business will also soon prosper from Woolies using 100% SPC fruit for their home brand products.

The Indonesian expansion is looking positive with lots of developments to come on board in '14, '15 (and I believe one or two buildings in 2016).

As mentioned above, I still don't know of any alcohol that you can buy mixed with Pepsi (unless you do it yourself).
I highly doubt Pepsi will be able to continue the discounting for a prolonged period,plus not everyone cares about saving a $1 and therefore need to drink something inferior (unless of course you like Pepsi  ).
Also mentioned above, I don't know if there will ever be a day that Macca's offers Pepsi. Village Cinemas & Hoyts also offer Coca-Cola. Correct me if I'm wrong but is KFC the only seller of Pepsi?

It's beer division hasn't even kicked into business yet so that's still ahead in coming years.

I think it's been largely sold down due to a missed profit guidance (plus probably another variable or two). Which I believe is vastly sold down and oversold.

Once my last exam is done, I'll be looking to dig into the annual report and take a decent look at it.


----------



## robusta (9 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> The share price appears to have plenty of fizz lift in it
> 
> View attachment 56225




Is that the right chart? The CCL I'm looking at is trading at $12.07 ??


----------



## piggybank (9 January 2014)

robusta said:


> Is that the right chart? The CCL I'm looking at is trading at $12.07 ??




Sorry Robusta - wrong thread


----------



## robusta (30 January 2014)

ROE said:


> Market adjusting its price since the 5-7% down grade....
> 
> They missed their own guidance ...said flat profit this year when they announce a shock drop in profit in first half
> but maintain second half will make up for it but second failed to deliver ...now likely to be down 5-7% for the year
> ...




The above post from early November last year. With the write down to come from SPC side of the business;

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...-cocacola-amatil/story-fni0dcne-1226814370633

A price around $10.00 or low $9.00 might be interesting as a long term investment. Probably won't fall that far however.


----------



## notting (31 January 2014)

SPC Ardmona decision helping this short.
Indonesia  is hardly looking like the road to riches at this point.
Stop to break even 12.20.


----------



## jdenhaan (18 February 2014)

Whoever's in balls deep... You better hold on. This thing is going to be a roller coaster this week.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-...fit-slumps-83-per-cent-to-20-year-low/5266372


----------



## ROE (18 February 2014)

They missed their own guidance again, here comes the re-price ...people still look at this thing in the rear mirror and refuse to accept what is coming after the 1st half result.


----------



## jdenhaan (18 February 2014)

ROE said:


> They missed their own guidance again, here comes the re-price ...people still look at this thing in the rear mirror and refuse to accept what is coming after the 1st half result.



The problem is in that writedown in VIC; manufacturing in Oz is simply not sustainable with wages the way they are.


----------



## McLovin (18 February 2014)

What's the deal in Indonesia?

35% increase in the minimum wage.


----------



## notting (18 February 2014)

stop to 11.80 on the short.
Was hovering to close out if it reacted positivity today which would have indicated to me that the bad news was priced in and if the market was still happy with the 22m from Hockey and not worried about a further 80m spend for jam!!
Will be watching the way it closes today to see if the negativity follows through or it's a final capitulation.
$10 or there about, still the target.


----------



## jdenhaan (19 February 2014)

Up 0.76%. Most of the misery was already in the price?


----------



## So_Cynical (20 March 2014)

In with the super fund today at $10.97 ~ with the recent good luck i have experienced with my super fund trades i don't expect this trade to be as successful, as fast, but you never do know...happy to wait 10 days or 10 months or whatever for this to come good.

To be honest i have never followed CCL as it was always to expensive to get my attention but the recent string of 52 week lows have stirred my interest, my 3 year chart shows the SP to be currently hitting 31 month lows, opportunity's to cheaply buy into big dominant players are rare outside of GFC type events so its hard to pass this up.
~


----------



## DJG (20 March 2014)

Nice move So_Cynical - I was waiting to see if it would manage to get under that $11 mark that it just seemed to be teasing for months! If I had the cash, I'd also be in.


----------



## notting (21 March 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> In with the super fund today at $10.97 ~ with the recent good luck i have experienced with my super fund trades i don't expect this trade to be as successful, as fast, but you never do know...happy to wait 10 days or 10 months or whatever for this to come good.
> 
> To be honest i have never followed CCL as it was always to expensive to get my attention but the recent string of 52 week lows have stirred my interest, my 3 year chart shows the SP to be currently hitting 31 month lows, opportunity's to cheaply buy into big dominant players are rare outside of GFC type events so its hard to pass this up.
> ~




Nothing wrong with that for the long term.
Short term obviously risky.


----------



## DJG (23 March 2014)

Giving CCL's new import a crack!


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## jdenhaan (26 March 2014)

Got in at ~11.79 and looking to double up. In this one for the long haul; looks like a great backbone for a fresh new portfolio


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## VSntchr (11 April 2014)

ROE, as time goes on I think your call about CCL being squeezed by the SUPER-chains is getting more and more prevalent. Another trading update today which indicates expected H1 EBIT over PCP down around 15%.

But the problems seem wider spread with non-grocery channel suffering aswell.

Indonesia and PNG look to be growing, but as we know growth doesn't always equal value and can just as easily destroy value. Wage cost pressures (or is that wages rising to a somewhat more realistic level?) and intensifying competition keeping a lid on any value add from this section of the biz.

But these sections are pretty small in the scheme of things and its the grocery and non-grocery markets in Aus that matter most, if I were invested in CCL however - I think that I'd be placing less and less confidence in the potential upside value that the Indo market provides...


----------



## ROE (11 April 2014)

ok I dipped my toe in today, under $10 I now factoring in a lot of bad news...Can average down from here...
I use based earning of 55c from here on...


----------



## McLovin (11 April 2014)

This has shades of 1999-2000. CCL shares got ahead of itself then, shares halved to ~$3.50 over the next 18 months because there was some difficulty in the Philippines.


----------



## notting (11 April 2014)

Taking profits at 9.80.
Someone asked me to show how I would trade it so that is why I have updated at the appropriate times.
I thought it was in this thread but unless it's been deleted it may have been in another thread regarding CCL.
10 was my target. So implementing discipline.


----------



## ROE (11 April 2014)

VSntchr said:


> ROE, as time goes on I think your call about CCL being squeezed by the SUPER-chains is getting more and more prevalent. Another trading update today which indicates expected H1 EBIT over PCP down around 15%.
> ..




All the pro CCL fund managers and analyst will get frustrated soon
For ignoring the warning signs - and start reversing the trend 

That when I start to load up big


----------



## DJG (11 April 2014)

I'm actually quite surprised at how large the price drop was. I thought most of it would've been 'expected' except for perhaps the 'non-grocery' channel part.


----------



## VSntchr (11 April 2014)

ROE said:


> All the pro CCL fund managers and analyst will get frustrated soon
> For ignoring the warning signs - and start reversing the trend
> 
> That when I start to load up big




Listen to the investor conference call, this is already occuring...I had a big LOL when Gino Rossi came on and got quite emotional....


----------



## ROE (11 April 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Listen to the investor conference call, this is already occuring...I had a big LOL when Gino Rossi came on and got quite emotional....




yeah I read that little review on AFR .... Nothing pissed you off more when you are so pro CCL and you got slapped down with a downgrade a few weeks out of your myth buster series and latest result  and my short on AZJ going no where, should have short CCL instead when I have that bearish view

That would have been an awesome combo short it to a level you like, close the position and start going long

too many fund managers and analyst pro AZJ, one man cant beat an army


----------



## Tyler Durden (11 April 2014)

So much for Warren Buffet's advice to choose stocks that you wouldn't mind holding if the market closed for 10 years...


----------



## ROE (12 April 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> So much for Warren Buffet's advice to choose stocks that you wouldn't mind holding if the market closed for 10 years...




A man with reasonable intelligent wouldn't follow someone advice blindly, a lot of his advice are general principles rather this is what one must do.

What he mean by that statement is you buy business that are sound and attractive and can last a long time and you not worry or get freak out about day to day price movement.

How much you pay, whether it is over price, when you buy up, let go, is something you have to sort it out for yourself.

At a certain price and when I load up big on coke, I wont mind holding it for 10 years even if the market close 

A lot of people love to have a go at him when stuff go wrong but seriously his general principles are very very good if you understand them and apply it properly.

when you buy stock even if Warren Buy them and it went wrong it is your fault no one else..why is it your fault? 
1. because you stupid to follow someone else advice
2. you didnt do enough research
3. you over pay
4. you follow the hype 
5. XXXX reasons end of the day you pull the trigger and buy so its your decision, take responsibility for it else throw the money into bank term deposit account.

by you I dont imply it is you personally, it can be me, you or anyone else.


----------



## McLovin (12 April 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> So much for Warren Buffet's advice to choose stocks that you wouldn't mind holding if the market closed for 10 years...




Actually, doesn't it make his point? If you paid a fair price and the company is sound then you don't need to worry about day to day price movements. The business will do the heavy lifting for you, not the share price and you don't need to worry over that ten year period that a company destroying event will occur. Of course if you overpay then it doesn't matter how great the business is, you will degrade your return. By way of example, Microsoft still hasn't returned to its peak price in the 2000 tech boom, in fact the SP would need to rise 50% to get back there. MSFT still fits in to what Buffet was talking about, that is a business you'd not be worried about owning with no way of exiting for ten years.

The reality is that these guys are still selling Coke. So the market ran ahead of itself (like I said upthread it is very similar to what happened to CCL in 1998-2000). Does that mean the company won't exist in ten years? Unlikely. And I'd say with a very high degree of confidence that in ten years time CCL will have higher revenue, higher profits and higher dividends.

A long term investment is two pronged questions:

1) Is this a business I want to own?

2) What price should I pay for it?

You can't ignore the price, because there is a price at which any business becomes an investment candidate, and similarly even the best businesses are not worth an stupidly high price.


----------



## icemanmelb (13 April 2014)

CCL like any other business has great assets and great people. Unfortunately like many established business, it's been sitting idle while it's competition has gone pass them. So it's time for a spring clean, write downs and profit warnings by the new CEO. Will Coke exist in another 10 years. Im pretty sure it will exist in 10 yrs time but what form will it be in? That's the million dollar question so I'll have to wait for more info.

Also regarding Buffett, I don't have deep pockets like him nor do I have the edge like him so I can't invest like him. With limited funds, I can only invest within my limited funds means. He also read 1000s of Quarterly and Annual reports every year. He also said he doesn't mind buying a great company at a fair price.

In the current CCL report, the analyst were expecting 71 cps but I worked out as approximately 50 cps. Hence the shocker on Friday. It's PE might need to be revised down as well. So let's see where Analyst such as Gino Rossi thinks fair value should be. Until then, some of the rides in Wet & Wild might more suitable for me.

Ice


----------



## tinhat (13 April 2014)

To buy or not to buy, that is the question. It depends on your objectives and your outlook. Management have performed poorly over the past few years looking at the fundamentals. Flat earnings (declining EPS in real terms) but the company has a solid balance sheet with a healthy return on assets and very good return on equity. The fact that they have constantly come to the market with bad news over the past couple of years highlights that strategically, they haven't been on the game and haven't been able to anticipate and address the challenges they have faced in the market.

I don't follow this stock so I don't know the answers to these questions to work out where the problems lie.

Is there a problem with the brand? Is the flagship Coke brand in decline? If fragmentation in the packaged beverage market is increasing, can the same volumes be sold with the same economies and margins as before? If the market is becoming fragmented (be geographic region and/or demographics) and fashion driven does the business retain a competitive advantage? To me this is the most fundamental question to ask about this business. The main asset that this business is leveraged off is the Coke brand.

Are there problems with the structure of distribution channels and are they shifting power away from the manufacturer?

I don't know what their strategy is for Indonesia, but looking at the bottom line performance of CCL over the past few years, they don't appear to be punching the lights out, yet one would expect this market to be the engine room of growth for packaged beverages. This is a mark against the management.

Another issue that I mark down management over is the SPC Admona business. This has been a dog of a business for years. CCL should have got out of thus business a few years ago when it had a chance, or alternatively, come up with a plan to completely restructure the business from the ground up. Management don't seem to have had the capability to identify and implement the sort of radical restructuring that the industry has needed.

I also question whether management have been tough enough and flexed enough market power when dealing with the big retailers. Remember when Fosters pulled VB from Coles and Woolworths a few years ago because the supermarkets were wanting to trash the VB brand through below-cost discounting? Is Coke letting the major retailers erode its brand and it margins?

In essence my assessment of management is that the value of their flagship brand and their market power within key distribution channels are waning in their primary market (Australia) and they are not performing in their growth market (Indonesia) to anywhere near what I had expected them to.

From a fundamental/medium-term income investing point of view, I don't know if a grossed up yield of only 7% in a company (albeit with a sound balance sheet) that has performed poorly and has a stable but poor outlook (flat earnings), in the context of my personal assessment of management's performance, warrants my investment at the current price. I don't think at the current price the market has overshot to the downside.

Would I be happy to buy CCL at the current price and walk away for ten years? No. I'd say the only stocks in my portfolios that meet that test are WOW, WES, CBA and to a lesser extent ANZ and RIO.


----------



## icemanmelb (13 April 2014)

tinhat said:


> Another issue that I mark down management over is the SPC Admona business. This has been a dog of a business for years. CCL should have got out of thus business a few years ago when it had a chance, or alternatively, come up with a plan to completely restructure the business from the ground up. Management don't seem to have had the capability to identify and implement the sort of radical restructuring that the industry has needed.
> 
> In essence my assessment of management is that the value of their flagship brand and their market power within key distribution channels are waning in their primary market (Australia) and they are not performing in their growth market (Indonesia) to anywhere near what I had expected them to.
> 
> From a fundamental/medium-term income investing point of view, I don't know if a grossed up yield of only 7% in a company (albeit with a sound balance sheet) that has performed poorly and has a stable but poor outlook (flat earnings), in the context of my personal assessment of management's performance, warrants my investment at the current price. I don't think at the current price the market has overshot to the downside.




I agree that they should have done something with SPC but now that they are going to keep going with this, I think it's a hard one if they are going to compete just on price ONLY. That ship has sailed and Gen Ys & Zs nowadays are more organic focus and environmental focus. That being the case, examples such as this is something management need to focus on besides cost cutting which contributes to the massive write down.

It's very competitive in Asia business wise. PNG & Indonesia is not exactly developed nations so strategy needs to include political risk, currency risk etc. Management was asleep behind the wheel when they didn't even put in a hedging plan when emerging markets fell due to QE (infinity) cut backs. Just look at most of the Gold Producers operating in those countries for some hints.

So currently it's not the kind of stock stable enough which one can buy and leave under the drawer for 10 years IMHO.

Ice


----------



## Julia (13 April 2014)

tinhat said:


> Would I be happy to buy CCL at the current price and walk away for ten years? No. I'd say the only stocks in my portfolios that meet that test are WOW, WES, CBA and to a lesser extent ANZ and RIO.



Any reason you've omitted WBC from that list, tinhat?   I'm not questioning the absence of NAB, though it's done quite well for me and the yield is good.

Agree with you on the others, except that I avoid all miners.  
PS  Wouldn't even consider touching CCL.


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## tinhat (13 April 2014)

Julia said:


> Any reason you've omitted WBC from that list, tinhat?   I'm not questioning the absence of NAB, though it's done quite well for me and the yield is good.
> 
> Agree with you on the others, except that I avoid all miners.
> PS  Wouldn't even consider touching CCL.




Julia, the reason for omitting WBC is that it is currently not in my portfolios. I've held WBC and NAB over the past few years but I don't hold either at the moment.


----------



## ROE (14 April 2014)

The tides has turn Analyst now reverse the trend and say sell
Was it better to sell at $15 when they say Buy


----------



## McLovin (14 April 2014)

That's a pretty big thud for a large cap. Down 13% on Friday and then another 7% today.


----------



## ROE (14 April 2014)

McLovin said:


> That's a pretty big thud for a large cap. Down 13% on Friday and then another 7% today.




I pulled the rigger a bit early should have waited till today, at least my short doing better


----------



## McLovin (14 April 2014)

ROE said:


> I pulled the rigger a bit early should have waited till today




I reckon there will be a bit of time with this, and what do they say about bad news?


----------



## ROE (14 April 2014)

McLovin said:


> I reckon there will be a bit of time with this, and what do they say about bad news?




Yah could be more bad news but I think other wise that why I buy.

The previous CEO is sleeping just like he did at Foster, he rode the trend but did little else, one of the reason
I didn't buy coke because of him.

I buy now for the new CEO, My theory she just clean the deck, set low expectation, so she can go about making thing right... she has a bit of work cut out for her...Coke has not been managed well... and if she can steer coke like she did at GrainCorp, coke will be ok and more prosper in the future.

Graincorp is an average business and she did a decent job there..Coke is a superb business with unrivalled distribution network so hopefully she can pull some magic with this asset.

and that what the market do to your SP when you came out with a downgrade surprise no one, even the bear wasn't even anticipate...


----------



## Ves (14 April 2014)

McLovin said:


> I reckon there will be a bit of time with this, and what do they say about bad news?



I still need to do a fair bit of digging to make sense of the alcohol side of the business and its earnings contribution going forward (from memory this will start increasing with a view to 2015?) and also SPC Ardmona.  

But EBIT in 2014 if my calculations are correct will be about $708m   (85% of 833m in 2013).   Assuming that they can rebase their earnings over the next few years and recover in the range of 850-900m EBIT  by 2018, and say 4% profitable growth then at $9 a share you'll probably get a total return of around 10%pa as a shareholder.

I would demand a higher return than that because there is no buffer in the event that earnings do not recover over the next few years (or worse there is further long-term deterioration) and profitability growth long-term is very limited.  In other words,  if their competitive position never recovers,  there is little solace at current market price.


----------



## McLovin (14 April 2014)

ROE said:


> Yah could be more bad news but I think other wise that why I buy.
> 
> The previous CEO is sleeping just like he did at Foster, he rode the trend but did little else, one of the reason
> I didn't buy coke because of him.
> ...




I agree with you. I like women CEO's. It's a lot harder for a woman to get to the top, so they usually get there because they are a genuinely good leader, not just because they're a member of the right boy's club.

Like Ves, I need to go and do some more work on this. I do remember thinking how ridiculous CCL's sp was at $15.


----------



## skc (14 April 2014)

McLovin said:


> I reckon there will be a bit of time with this, and what do they say about bad news?




They say bad news come in three. This is already the 3rd bad news.

1. 7 May 2013 - AGM trading update. H1 FY13 EBIT to be 8-9% down on last year. Full year FY13 to be flat. Reason: Indonesia was strong, grocery channel difficult with competitor discounting. SPC impacted by importing.

2. 4 Nov 2013 - Trading update. FY13 EBIT to be 5-7% down on last year. Reason: No post-election uplift in consumer spending. More aggressive competitor pricing. Indo demand slowed.

3. 11 Apr 2014 - Trading update. H1 FY14 EBIT to decline 15% compared to pcp. Reason: Grocery channel continue to struggle. Non-grocery channel soft. Cost inflation in Indo + currency depreciation. SPC improving.

While the usual 3-count is in, there's certainly no sign of a turnaround yet. Several aspects of these updates were quite concerning imo.
- The reason for the decline has changed every time. It feels like they don't know where the next fire will be.  
- They actually experienced flat/rising volume. So margin is eroding (as opposed to people suddenly got healthy and stopped drinking coke). This just spells classic manufacturer squeeze. 
- H1 numbers were against a weak pcp. Given that H1 FY13 was already a drop of 8-9%, a further 15% fall means that EBIT has fallen from $402 to $318. That's a major fall considering this business is supposed to be stable

Oh.. Alison Watkins lost a heap of points in my eye by saying this in the first paragraph of Friday's announcement.



> “*I am delighted *to be on board and have covered a lot of ground in my first six weeks having visited each of CCA’s major businesses and met with many of our key stakeholders. I am impressed with the calibre of the people at CCA, the strong competitive position we enjoy in our businesses and the strength of the relationship we have with The Coca-Cola Company.




Really? You are delighted?! You must be ecstatic now that the share price has fallen 20% in 2 sessions and close enough to a 5-year low.

Do I think she's being conservative and clearing the deck? Yes, most probably.

Do I think she's got an answer to the structural headwind? Nope. 



Ves said:


> But EBIT in 2014 if my calculations are correct will be about $708m   (85% of 833m in 2013).   Assuming that they can rebase their earnings over the next few years and recover in the range of 850-900m EBIT  by 2018, and say 4% profitable growth then at $9 a share you'll probably get a total return of around 10%pa as a shareholder.
> 
> I would demand a higher return than that because there is no buffer in the event that earnings do not recover over the next few years (or worse there is further long-term deterioration) and profitability growth long-term is very limited.  In other words,  if their competitive position never recovers,  there is little solace at current market price.




+1. $7.50 then it starts to get interesting. $9 doesn't quite do it for me.


----------



## Ves (14 April 2014)

McLovin said:


> do some more work on this. I do remember thinking how ridiculous CCL's sp was at $15.



I find it that when I need to go do a heap more work to figure out if I am missing much from my research  (unless it is obvious) that I'm more likely to make a mistake.... almost as if psychologically you want the company to be a "buy."

I'm a little hesitant to dig much deeper at the moment for this reason, and as you said,  it's probably not going any where fast at the moment (maybe lower...).   The whole "this is a great company and now it's 30-40% cheaper" mixed with a confirmation bias you never realised you had can be dangerous!   I'd prefer to wait until there is absolutely no noise and no one is talking about it.

Not saying that this happens to you, by the way.


----------



## ROE (14 April 2014)

Julia said:


> Any reason you've omitted WBC from that list, tinhat?   I'm not questioning the absence of NAB, though it's done quite well for me and the yield is good.
> 
> Agree with you on the others, except that I avoid all miners.
> PS  Wouldn't even consider touching CCL.




Shorting banks will be a better idea as we approaching May 13th
if there is any cut back on negative gearing as reported banks will get hit hard and could be a trigger point
for properties in Australia.

I closed my CBA short before XD and I short it again above $77 recently, I expect an easy 5-10% dropped
if there is change to NG in May budget


----------



## icemanmelb (14 April 2014)

Most guys have the attitude that if you don't sell, you haven't loss a thing saying.

The other being most bad news comes in 3's so now it's a good time to buy.

Both saying are just that and I personally think are traps.

Ice


----------



## McLovin (15 April 2014)

Ves said:


> I find it that when I need to go do a heap more work to figure out if I am missing much from my research  (unless it is obvious) that I'm more likely to make a mistake.... almost as if psychologically you want the company to be a "buy."
> 
> I'm a little hesitant to dig much deeper at the moment for this reason, and as you said,  it's probably not going any where fast at the moment (maybe lower...).   The whole "this is a great company and now it's 30-40% cheaper" mixed with a confirmation bias you never realised you had can be dangerous!   I'd prefer to wait until there is absolutely no noise and no one is talking about it.
> 
> Not saying that this happens to you, by the way.




Great post, V. I agree. When you start from a position of this company is now on sale you can end up looking for little nuggets that confirm it is unjustly cheap while ignoring the elephant in the room.

Sometimes you just gotta listen to the little man inside you...


----------



## Ves (15 April 2014)

Thanks mate -  that's half the battle.  

Whilst I have not looked at it in any detail,   I would not be surprised if CCL has enjoyed fairly high margins by world standards for bottling and distribution and long-term mean reversion (your old chestnut?) could be very possible.

This company is robust enough to survive,  but lower margins means more bottles need to be sold and capital intensity in the long-term increases to maintain the same total return.  Not ideal if you pay too much,  multiples can contract very sharply.

You'd imagine if this can happen in Australia that PNG / Indonesia could bear fruit initially,  but competitors will want a piece of that pie too.   Incumbents can generate excess returns for a very long time,  as is the case here (and my still be),  but it can unwind quickly.

Being stuck in the middle of Schweppes' heavy discounting and WES / WOW bargaining power has not helped at all.  Then there is the issue of health consciousness being detrimental to fizzy drink sales.  Bottled water is a good substitute but Coles and Woolies do those for under a $1,  not $3.50!  When elephants throw their weight around there are usually no big winners,   but often some big losers.

So many variables at play here.  A simple business model with a mass of dynamic interference. Yep,  the little guy tells me to tread lightly.


----------



## RandR (19 April 2014)

RandR said:


> Hey V,
> 
> 
> 
> I think its a little overpumped still at the moment (for me) I dont think its a deal until its below $11 personally. I like the reliable nature of the business and earnings but not interested much at all unless it heads below there.




posted this about 13months ago. As yet I have not entered into the stock, have a small amount of money I am setting aside and waiting to see how things unfold. I don't believe this is going to reverse and head back up in a hurry, so see no need to jump in right now. Happy to wait and move, the trading update in may should be interesting. I will most likely wait till then unless things get real cheap in the meantime.


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 May 2014)

jdenhaan said:


> Got in at ~11.79 and looking to double up. In this one for the long haul; looks like a great backbone for a fresh new portfolio



Ughhh. How do you feel mate. Announcement of management shuffle today might garner some confidence back. Could be a bounce here but I have my doubts that $9 will hold as support for the medium term. Plenty of stabilising to do. Just sayin'.


----------



## So_Cynical (13 May 2014)

I took an average down today @ 9.07 increased my position by about 20% .. first and last CCL average down.


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## So_Cynical (21 May 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> I took an average down today @ 9.07 increased my position by about 20% .. first and last CCL average down.




Great timing, 8 days later and CCL touched $9.97 and i have a cheap parcel. 

Yet another double bottom as well, so many stocks and so many double bottoms.


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## ROE (21 May 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Great timing, 8 days later and CCL touched $9.97 and i have a cheap parcel.
> 
> Yet another double bottom as well, so many stocks and so many double bottoms.




Yeah I jump in there too when all the Analyst say sell  everyone got frozen  but they happy to pay up when its $13-15


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## rimtas (8 June 2014)

I think it is not worth buying CCL at this stage as wave structure looks incomplete. It is in a progress of correcting a recent steep decline in wave 4 and later CCL should be heading to new lows in wave 5, most likely to $7-8 area, where a buying opportunity will arises for  multimonth pullback. 

The main concern is that  from 2000 bottom CCL failed to advance in Impulsive manner and wave structure looks corrective towards $16 top in March 2013, so it could be headed below $2 in a years to come which is quite frustrating given the fact that Australia is in a multiyear bull market right now and second half of 2014 should be very impressive for Aussie stock market overall.


----------



## neilza (16 June 2014)

*Monster 1 day volume on Coca Cola Amitil - trend change?*

Did anyone see the massive volume on Coca Cola Amitil on Friday?  10 x the average daily volume.  I'm pretty new to this game but when you see volume like that, you've got to take notice.  The stocks been declining for over 12 months and the fundamentals are pretty ugly but perhaps it's oversold and due a rally? Thoughts anyone....


----------



## skc (16 June 2014)

*Re: Monster 1 day volume on Coca Cola Amitil - trend change?*



neilza said:


> Did anyone see the massive volume on Coca Cola Amitil on Friday?  10 x the average daily volume.  I'm pretty new to this game but when you see volume like that, you've got to take notice.  The stocks been declining for over 12 months and the fundamentals are pretty ugly but perhaps it's oversold and due a rally? Thoughts anyone....




Most of the volume was done via a special crossing (as opposed to on-market trades) so most likely some into shifting their portfolio. It's a big line and done at recent support so it probably means the support would hold for a little while longer.

But other than that I don't know if it necessarily means too much.


----------



## neilza (16 June 2014)

*Re: Monster 1 day volume on Coca Cola Amitil - trend change?*



skc said:


> Most of the volume was done via a special crossing (as opposed to on-market trades) so most likely some into shifting their portfolio. It's a big line and done at recent support so it probably means the support would hold for a little while longer.
> 
> But other than that I don't know if it necessarily means too much.




Cheers SKC. I've decided to go long with a stop underneath that resistance level around 900 so hopefully a bounce will play out for a nice short-term gain.  ECHO looking good after monster volume on May 26th.  Looks like a nice cup and handle pattern has formed.


----------



## ROE (16 June 2014)

*Re: Monster 1 day volume on Coca Cola Amitil - trend change?*



neilza said:


> Did anyone see the massive volume on Coca Cola Amitil on Friday?  10 x the average daily volume.  I'm pretty new to this game but when you see volume like that, you've got to take notice.  The stocks been declining for over 12 months and the fundamentals are pretty ugly but perhaps it's oversold and due a rally? Thoughts anyone....




According to afr a fund manager wants an exit block trade with $9 the absolute floor price ... 250 new investors took up that block trade so some investors has some serious money -


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## rimtas (19 July 2014)

In most cases when big volume is generated Not in an Impulsive wave, it means nothing. The money has been spent and the buyer is once again at the mercy of the market.  There has been no any Impulsive advance from the 8,993 bottom, market is moving sideways in "threes", so the main trend is still down. Expect CCL to see in a 7-8aud range late in the year(or even 6,5 support) where I think a medium term bottom will be and a multimonth rally starts.


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## So_Cynical (19 July 2014)

rimtas said:


> There has been no any Impulsive advance from the 8,993 bottom, market is moving sideways in "threes", so the main trend is still down. Expect CCL to see in a 7-8aud range late in the year(or even 6,5 support) where I think a medium term bottom will be and a multimonth rally starts.




4 months of sideways averaging at around $9.40 with a triple bottom at 9.05 ish...the bottom is in, my opinion is as good as yours, i have 5K in this how about you?


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## ROE (19 July 2014)

I have around 3200 shares, I got room for a lot more at those $7-8 or $5-6 price 
I am patiently waiting


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## rimtas (19 July 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> the bottom is in, my opinion is as good as yours, i have 5K in this how about you?




It could be that  Triangle is developing, but early to say...could easily trend sideways another 4 month before decline resumes. 





And yes, your opinion is good, the difference from mine is that it is not my opinion. I am looking at the market and reading what it says, and at this stage it says-no "five" up from the bottom-means no further rally.
It is very dangerous and extremely unprofitable "to think" about market. There should be an analytical approach which eliminates "thinking" and leaves only probabilities based on facts.

I will buy CCL only when there is perfect setup which will eliminates a risk of an upcoming drop. Money is too dear for loosing because of "thinking", witch more often than not is incorrect.


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## Ves (19 July 2014)

ROE said:


> I have around 3200 shares, I got room for a lot more at those $7-8 or $5-6 price
> I am patiently waiting



$6-7 sounds a lot more interesting to me.   Honestly it probably won't ever get there.   But I am sure that lots of other opportunities will present themselves outside of this stock.   I'm with Warren on this one,   you get to choose when you swing.


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## So_Cynical (19 July 2014)

rimtas said:


> It is very dangerous and extremely unprofitable "to think" about market. There should be an analytical approach which eliminates "thinking" and leaves only probabilities based on facts.




I've done ok thinking over the last 7 years, did ok out of WTF the other week no waves needed...saw the obvious and acted accordingly, thinking can often allow the thinker to see things/come to the obvious conclusion.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5163&page=7

I have spent some time thinking about bottoms recently...triple bottom is a very good sign, superior to 5 waves IMO.


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## ROE (20 July 2014)

rimtas said:


> I will buy CCL only when there is perfect setup which will eliminates a risk of an upcoming drop. Money is too dear for loosing because of "thinking", witch more often than not is incorrect.




Is there such a scenario? just wondering how you would eliminate risk in the stock market? 
if you eliminate risk of the stock from dropping then it is a 100% guarantee win isn't it?

I can manage risk but I cant work out how to eliminate it


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## rimtas (20 July 2014)

well, maybe i should have said not "eliminate" but reduce to a minimum at a certain point where many factors are pointing to a turn. There is no such thing as 100% in the markets, there are only probabilities and possibilities with a certain amount of confidence. The good thing is that the market (i.e humans) is always the same, following the same nature rules all the time.


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## Miner (9 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> I think it is not worth buying CCL at this stage as wave structure looks incomplete. It is in a progress of correcting a recent steep decline in wave 4 and later CCL should be heading to new lows in wave 5, m*ost likely to $7-8 area, where a buying opportunity will arises for  multimonth pullback.
> *
> The main concern is that  from 2000 bottom CCL failed to advance in Impulsive manner and wave structure looks corrective towards $16 top in March 2013, so it could be headed below $2 in a years to come which is quite frustrating given the fact that Australia is in a multiyear bull market right now and second half of 2014 should be very impressive for Aussie stock market overall.
> 
> View attachment 58261






rimtas said:


> It could be that  Triangle is developing, but early to say...could easily trend sideways another *4 month before decline resumes.
> *
> View attachment 58740
> 
> ...






rimtas said:


> well, maybe i should have said not "eliminate" but reduce to a minimum at a certain point where many factors are pointing to a turn. There is no such thing as 100% in the markets, there are only probabilities and possibilities with a certain amount of confidence. The good thing is that the market (i.e humans) is always the same, following the same nature rules all the time.




I was searching posts on CCL and found some interesting charts as attached. At the outset I am not chartist because of my poor excel skills and lack of mathmatics/statistics (grade D in Uni) .
However could not see the reasons for seeing the sharp down trend in your chart towards $7 to $8 which is yet to be seen  in practice. I do not know how correlation in the graphs were used or any regression analysis to suggest the predicted price. No I am not suggesting a down ramping but curious to know how come charts since June 2014 yet to satisfy the trend  ?? As I said being a D grader in maths and stat - not competent to draw the same excepting reading them.


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## DJG (9 September 2014)

Miner said:


> I was searching posts on CCL and found some interesting charts as attached. At the outset I am not chartist because of my poor excel skills and lack of mathmatics/statistics (grade D in Uni) .As I said being a D grader in maths and stat - not competent to draw the same excepting reading them.




Side note: I don't think you need a PhD in mathematics or science to read charts. I'm no professional but although some chartists will like to call themselves 'artists' or 'scientists'...they largely aren't either (that's my view anyway, which I'm sure will strike a chord with some). I know for a fact it definitely doesn't require Excel anyway - that'd be more fundamental analysis.

I'll be interested to see the replies to your post regardless.

It also appears everyone got pretty excited over the double-bottoms etc. What about now? I see lots of range trading!


----------



## rimtas (9 September 2014)

Yeap, totally agree... To read charts you don't need to be a PHD, Bachelor or even finished high school, every one can do it . You don't need excel skills also. Actually, you don't need anything, except a specific knowledge about how markets behave. 
 This knowledge is acquired by getting familiar yourself with a theory and then follows three steps-practice, practice, practice.  At least five years everyday observation/trading in different kind of markets until you start to notice that markets are not random and that they do not follow fundamentals-it's all way around-fundamentals follow the markets. 

Back to CCL-we just have a 5 wave drop to new lows-this could be a 1st wave decline and 2nd wave correction is now unfolding.  A 3rd wave crash should cover the vast amount of price territory in the next step.


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## galumay (9 September 2014)

I will leave the wave structures to the surfers! 

I had another look into CCL when it hit $9 recently, but I still have enough concerns about the underlying business that it still didnt provide a satisfactory MoS for me at that price. 

I may be wrong and the company may recover from its current issues, but if I am right there is still some downside until it reaches its IV.


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## So_Cynical (9 September 2014)

Triple - quadruple bottom its all good...bottom consolidation, its a big stock and maybe it takes awhile to shake out the uncomfortable, i remember with CSL back in the day it took a good 8 months (from memory) to see off the $28 bottom.


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## DJG (9 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> At least five years everyday observation/trading in different kind of markets until you start to notice that markets are not random and that they do not follow fundamentals-it's all way around-*fundamentals follow the markets. *




Do you mind elaborating on the bold part? Perhaps examples of where this has happened.


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## Smurf1976 (9 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> fundamentals follow the markets.




I'm not convinced on this one.

I contend that in practice, the market tends to foresee things but not cause them. Eg the market foresees a drop in wheat production due to weather and the price of wheat rises in anticipation of this. So the price has indeed lead the fundamentals as such. But the rising price of wheat didn't cause a drought etc to occur in the first place, the market is simply foreseeing and/or reacting to something that is going to happen anyway.


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## rryall (11 September 2014)

Pay freeze for employees next year and a 38% cut in wages for future employees. Thoughts?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...ployees-to-work-for-less-20140910-10exj8.html


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## Wysiwyg (11 September 2014)

$9 support level was breached and bought up but there have been more refusals to go higher since then. 



rryall said:


> Pay freeze for employees next year and a 38% cut in wages for future employees. Thoughts?



Shareholders may see this as a good move. An employee may not.


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## rimtas (11 September 2014)

DJG said:


> Perhaps examples of where this has happened.




It is happening everywhere. I do not point to particular stock, but the market as a whole.  Social mood is the major driving force which moves everything, and the stock market is the only indicator which has the ability to record what kind of mood is in the market right now. 

All fundamentals are just  a statistical information of what has already hapenend, it does not have anything to do with what will happen next. 

 And by the way -The drought will not cause the weat prices to rise, there a heaps of examples when it drops on this kind of event. It just people who wants to rationalize and see everything as the cause, because human mind just can't accept ilogical events. Rationalization after the fact is on everyday news and forums, everyone can find "a cause"- there are plenty to chose from and explain wherever the market goes.


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## galumay (11 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> All fundamentals are just  a statistical information of what has already hapenend, it does not have anything to do with what will happen next.




Thats so funny, coming from a proponent of TA! Aghh the irony.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> All fundamentals are just  a statistical information of what has already hapenend, it does not have anything to do with what will happen next.




Another factor is how you define the terms. "Fundamentals" means different things to different people.

To some, fundamentals means real, tangible stuff. What the business actually does, what assets it has and so on.

To others, fundamentals is a purely financial question based on the company's accounts.

Both can be relevant, either individually or combined, depending on context.


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## jdenhaan (26 September 2014)

$9 support is gone. Has to be a solid buy for B&H.


----------



## tech/a (26 September 2014)

Sounds like punter logic.

Support gone-----Brilliant.

Go to the JBH thread might want to jump on those as well.


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## Wysiwyg (28 September 2014)

jdenhaan said:


> $9 support is gone. Has to be a solid buy for B&H.



The faithful are still in. Hoping the break will be just a small one and price will turn up again. Company wise coke is a household brand name and one would think the long term coke story isn't over yet.


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## Miner (28 September 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> The faithful are still in. Hoping the break will be just a small one and price will turn up again. Company wise coke is a household brand name and one would think the long term coke story isn't over yet.




Both Coke and Pepsi have agreed to fight calories and bring down the calorie level to a significant level in next 10 years. It will be a make and break for them as the main market for Coke and Pepsi is US and they love the sugar . So reduction of sugar could mean reduction of sales. 
What we could speculate on PMV and Solomon Lews's massive cash in hand situation. Lew may heal up his wound to offer  a take over of CCL when the price still slides. So from speculation perspective only there is a merit for CCL or a massive shake up with current market.  There is no fundamental support I see for CCL in immediate future in Australian market also because we are more calorie and fitness conscious here than I have seen in USA.  If Starbucks come then I could see a massive downfall of CCL investors in favour of Starbucks . THis is however no science and my wishful thoughts only. So as always treat your own money for growth not gamble


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## galumay (28 September 2014)

Miner said:


> If Starbucks come then I could see a massive downfall of CCL investors in favour of Starbucks .




How do Starbucks have anything to do with CCL? I thought they just made really bad coffee?


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## Miner (28 September 2014)

galumay said:


> How do Starbucks have anything to do with CCL? I thought they just made really bad coffee?




Good point. Tastes differ. There are lots of people love Tim Hortons and McCafe Coffee - I hated them because of loss of apetite after consuming them. That does not mean I am right . 

What matters for business is the marketing hype capitalising consumers money with high profit margin. 

IMO we in Australia are some what crazy to imitate US fashion though on face of it we pretend to show our hatred towards Yankees (lets face it - we do the same attitude to others be a South Africans or Pom ) . Sorry to digrace but I am bringing out the point of marketing hype, product marketing and marketing strategy aspect to understand a market . 

If I may give a similar example with HM fashion coming to Australia if not come already. In USA and CANADA this is just another chain - no difference there but here it does. We are just crazy about showing off and spending . Ha Ha. I am no difference. 

So bottom line of my comparison was to illustraate customers preference in Australia  towards Coffee than Coke. Americans in USA are hooked up consumption of Coke. Starbucks has a great marketing appeal with his cup and logo.  Tastes vary and see their share price in NYSE. 

So my one cent guess is those people who just want some drink to kill the boredoom will go for coffee. A great chunk of customer base in Australia is generation Y. Starbucks is famous to offer their premises for free Wifi - and a good joint for chat with IPad and laptops. There is no such thing with Coke premises (you could argue they have low capital base but each Starbuck coffee will cost $5) . So a chunk of coke lovers will spend at Starbucks shop and buy the products.  Obviously hot and cold do not go together.  How many people in street we see carrying a coke can ? We do carry coffee. Plus starbucks make a great hype with their coffee beans. THat is another market for people going to use branded coffee beans in their coffee machines. 
That was my wishful thought that with Starbucks coming to Australia will snatch not only Coke market but also some of the known coffee chains.


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## galumay (28 September 2014)

Miner said:


> .....
> That was my wishful thought that with Starbucks coming to Australia will snatch not only Coke market but also some of the known coffee chains.




Ok, I see your logic! Cant say I agree, i dont think a chain like Starbucks would take off here, they make woeful coffee from grossly over roasted beans, I think the coffee market in Australia is way too sophisticated for SB's. Even in America they are know as Charbucks for their burnt beans!

I also just cant see the market for take away, fizzy, cold, super sweet soft drinks being replaced by sit down hot coffee. I think there will be a move of market share to more healthy drinks - although that has probably already happened and its only the locked on soft drink consumers that are left and I am not sure they know or care about health issues!


----------



## Miner (28 September 2014)

galumay said:


> Ok, I see your logic! Cant say I agree, i dont think a chain like Starbucks would take off here, they make woeful coffee from grossly over roasted beans, I think the coffee market in Australia is way too sophisticated for SB's. Even in America they are know as Charbucks for their burnt beans!
> 
> I also just cant see the market for take away, fizzy, cold, super sweet soft drinks being replaced by sit down hot coffee. I think there will be a move of market share to more healthy drinks - although that has probably already happened and its only the locked on soft drink consumers that are left and I am not sure they know or care about health issues!




Personally I will be very happy to see what you said is going to happen in Australia. Because that means my south looking CCL investment through  superfund will look better. Who knows ? 

I will send you a no string attached and thanks note with full 30 pack coke cans (seriously)  should CCL price  rise to a respected level at least 10% return in next 12 months. 

Cheers


----------



## galumay (28 September 2014)

Miner said:


> Personally I will be very happy to see what you said is going to happen in Australia. Because that means my south looking CCL investment through  superfund will look better. Who knows ?
> 
> I will send you a no string attached and thanks note with full 30 pack coke cans (seriously)  should CCL price  rise to a respected level at least 10% return in next 12 months.
> 
> Cheers




Remember, you can never go wrong by underestimating the general populaces lack of common sense and taste! In all likelihood CCL will recover with bogans continuing to drink gallons of coke and also charbucks will take off because really crap coffee is the next sizzlers!


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2014)

I don't see how Coke and coffee are competitors.

Perhaps I'm biased in that I can't stand the taste of coffee but think Coke is OK (though I don't drink much of the stuff) but I can't see how a coffee shop diverts people away from drinking Coke. It seems to be a very different market to me.


----------



## Miner (28 September 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't see how Coke and coffee are competitors.
> 
> Perhaps I'm biased in that I can't stand the taste of coffee but think Coke is OK (though I don't drink much of the stuff) but I can't see how a coffee shop diverts people away from drinking Coke. It seems to be a very different market to me.




Surf1976 - I do not want to digrace from CCL topic but this is my response .
You, I and others must have different tastes, likes and that's how market survives with differentiating products. So you were on the money by stating your disliking on coffee. Put in this way  there are many who do not like beer and prefer wine/spirit instead. Same way we have different likings for different beers. All are coexisting and some are making more money than others . 50 % is driven by individual tastes and 50%  is through marketing. See how lovely calendars come with famous spirits. Not because of their sole taste but largely on marketing.

Coffee and Coke both are non alcoholic caffiene based beverages. One is more sold during summer than others. Now think of cold coffee during summer ?? Now probably you see how a coffee can take market share from a cold drink - that is fundamentally. Then product marketing comes to differentiate one brand of coffee than the others  and so are cold drinks. Sorry - not lecturing or suggesting I know a lot here but sharing my thoughts to support the orginal statement how I could see CCL shares could go down unless they make serious  proactive effort to lift the marketing strategy to position themselves in Australian market - it is a very small cherry compared to North American apple Coke enjoys.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2014)

Iced coffee seems to be big business already judging by the amount of marketing effort put into it. Farmers Union being the main brand at least around here.

But CCL isn't just Coke. It's also various other soft drinks, they jumped on the bottled water bandwagon successfully and so on. 

They do seem to have an interesting pricing strategy however, and that goes for all the soft drinks companies. Buy a 600mL bottle at a supermarket or you could pay less and get 2 litres instead. I don't mean the price per litre is lower in the big bottle, I mean the actual shelf price is lower. 

If someone wanted a 600mL drink then logically they'd buy the 2 litre one and either keep the rest for later or simply drink a third of the bottle and throw the rest away. That the high priced 600mL size actually sells says an awful lot about marketing and how consumers think.


----------



## Miner (28 September 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> Iced coffee seems to be big business already judging by the amount of marketing effort put into it. Farmers Union being the main brand at least around here.
> 
> But CCL isn't just Coke. It's also various other soft drinks, they jumped on the bottled water bandwagon successfully and so on.
> 
> ...




100% AGREED. I chose the example of Coke and coffee  for the sake of comparison specially every one including a child loves coke and the brand is well known. Not many of us probably are aware that Mt Franklin is also owned by CCL and it has acquired most of other competitors including KIRK (used to be cheapest priced lemonade).

http://ccamatil.com/OURBRANDS/Pages/Australia.aspx - all products from CCL are listed in the link.

That is the key point - product diversification from CCL and thrust to make it known that we just do not make only coke. I am only a small holder of CCL and would consider the million dollar paid executives would consider to change the product mix and marketing strategy to uplift the profitability. I would stop it here and hopefully one bright guy from CCL would invest time to read our posting here and do some thing to make money for all of us.

Just one pun here considering I am an investor of CCL not a trader. What I personally like is immaterial also. I do not take a single drop of coke . So my personal choice of beverage does not matter even if I want to make  money from my investment . It is like one vegan is investing on beef cattle firm !!!!!


----------



## skc (28 September 2014)

Miner said:


> That was my wishful thought that with Starbucks coming to Australia will snatch not only Coke market but also some of the known coffee chains.




Starbucks had already come to Australia, failed and retreated! Where have you been since 2003?

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...cks-in-australia/story-fnkgdftz-1226934958931



> Getting similar growth from the Starbucks assets will be major challenge given the US chain has struggled since opening its first store in Sydney in 2000.
> 
> After years of losing money, the company closed about 60 stores and sacked 685 staff, leaving its current stable of 24 stores along the east coast




Offering free Wi-Fi in Starbucks was like a wonderful tactics back in 2001. Today I doubt it is important at all.

Sol Lew isn't that cashed up. They talked about him taking over Myer which is barely worth $1B. CCL despite a fallen share price is still worth $6.8B. Not to mention the fact that it's 30% owned by Coca-Cola Holdings Ltd (the US mother brand) so no one will be taking over CCL except them.



Smurf1976 said:


> I don't see how Coke and coffee are competitors.




+1. Completely different markets and occassions. I drink both and I really don't think I've ever thought of one as the substitute for another.


----------



## Miner (28 September 2014)

skc said:


> Starbucks had already come to Australia, failed and retreated! Where have you been since 2003?
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...cks-in-australia/story-fnkgdftz-1226934958931
> 
> ...




Dear SKC

I always adore your postings and thanks for reading the posting.
In 2003 I was busy in digging gold  in Telfer Mines and did not bother of learning about Starbucks. In fact had no interest on them until last three years spent in Canada and US . 
I do not know how come Soleman Lew associated with CCL ? Surely you did not mix up with few products of CCL while writing on the thread 

Mate, we all are entitled of our opinions and I have been penning purely from marketing perspective. There are always different perspectives of life. Who knew about Alibaba or Google before they came in the market. Some stupid thougths create innovations and product niche. Always unconventional routes. As I have put the caveat in the fortfront, I was sharing my wishful thoughts in the forum and never claimed to be expert - never before you however at least (not pun - I do mean it).
Bottom line - I want to see rays of hope to get my CCL shares paid off at my retirement and not just a trading gain. 

Good night to all - it is almost 11 PM.


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 September 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> If someone wanted a 600mL drink then logically they'd buy the 2 litre one and either keep the rest for later or simply drink a third of the bottle and throw the rest away. That the high priced 600mL size actually sells says an awful lot about marketing and how consumers think.



Tapping the "convenience" factor. The 600ml are  cold at the checkout entrance where as the shelf bottles are hot. One has to be conscious of such traits so as to not bow to the desire. I watch other peoples actions a lot and if they want a shelf item then the reach is for between hip and shoulder height. Few bend to view lower shelves or reach above head height for items. The modern day illness of backache.


----------



## skc (29 September 2014)

Dear Miner,



Miner said:


> I do not know how come Soleman Lew associated with CCL ? Surely you did not mix up with few products of CCL while writing on the thread




I was following on from your mention of PMV and Solomon Lew.  



Miner said:


> What we could speculate on PMV and Solomon Lews's massive cash in hand situation. Lew may heal up his wound to offer  a take over of CCL when the price still slides. So from speculation perspective only there is a merit for CCL or a massive shake up with current market.






Miner said:


> Mate, we all are entitled of our opinions and I have been penning purely from marketing perspective. There are always different perspectives of life.




Of course! But when you offer an opinion on the forum, I assume you are also interested in feedback which may either verify or dispute your view. 

Coffee is not a problem for Coke... it's really much closer to a fact than a perspective. 



Miner said:


> Who knew about Alibaba or Google before they came in the market. Some stupid thougths create innovations and product niche. Always unconventional routes. As I have put the caveat in the fortfront, I was sharing my wishful thoughts in the forum and never claimed to be expert - never before you however at least (not pun - I do mean it).




Thanks Miner. You have always been so polite! Yes, stupid thoughts are often the grandmother of innovation. But random postulations are often the Mother of bad investments! 



Miner said:


> Bottom line - I want to see rays of hope to get my CCL shares paid off at my retirement and not just a trading gain.




I have offerd you one - the Coca-Cola company taking it over. 

And I will offer you a second one... it's the cheapest Coca-cola bottler in the world in terms of earnings multiple. 
- The "health trend" is somewhat structural but a slow decline. It can be diversified given time.
- Woolies/Coles problem is also structural but will find a bottom somewhere. There will always be coke in supermarkets.
- The price competition from Pepsi is mostly cyclical market dynamics. There will be times when competitions are worse than others (not helped by Woolies/Coles).
- The problems in Indonesia are pretty standard in an emerging market. There are risks and there are rewards.

So....either an operational turnaround or may be even a private equity firm taking it over (after getting the nod from the US) if the $A falls low enough.



Miner said:


> Good night to all - it is almost 11 PM.




It's now past 12pm  Good night!


----------



## McLovin (29 September 2014)

skc said:


> +1. Completely different markets and occassions. I drink both and I really don't think I've ever thought of one as the substitute for another.




+2

I drink one and don't touch coffee.

And in the spirit of this thread, it's coming up on 1am. Goodnight.


----------



## burglar (29 September 2014)

McLovin said:


> +2
> 
> I drink one and don't touch coffee.
> 
> And in the spirit of this thread, it's coming up on 1am. Goodnight.




The first one (Coke) is possibly good for you. 

The first coffee, as a heart starter, is probably good for you.

The first spirit* of the day, may also be good for you.

It's coming up 1:00 am local time, so Good Morning!






*I like Jim Beam and Coke.


----------



## VSntchr (30 October 2014)

Review announcement out and I really don't think I can make it through 93 pages...
Basic run down is that TCCC is injecting half-a-bil into Indo to try and get things moving. Oh and CCA announced some cost savings yesterday...

I am watching CCL, but so far I haven't seen anything enticing enough to start counting my dollars for an investment.

But don't listen to me, I didn't even read the presentation!


----------



## ROE (30 October 2014)

McLovin said:


> +2
> 
> I drink one and don't touch coffee.
> 
> And in the spirit of this thread, it's coming up on 1am. Goodnight.




+3 I drink both, I always like coke doesn't matter the price as I dont drink a lot 
a drink here and there but I like its taste well before I was a shareholder 

Coffee get me going in the morning, coke for hot summer day or when I feel like a bit
of sugar after a long run 

have both RFG and CCL and you are covered coffee and coke


----------



## skc (30 October 2014)

Green coke anyone?





I don't know about the packaging.... feels like the wrong shade of green!


----------



## TPI (30 October 2014)

ROE said:


> +3 I drink both, I always like coke doesn't matter the price as I dont drink a lot
> a drink here and there but I like its taste well before I was a shareholder
> 
> Coffee get me going in the morning, coke for hot summer day or when I feel like a bit
> ...




ROE, did you pull the trigger on more CCL today?

Coke Life will be interesting, only just released in UK and US soon I think, and already in some South American countries but slightly different flavour there apparently.

April launch date will give more time to see the overseas response.


----------



## So_Cynical (30 October 2014)

I have seen a lot of these ads around town over the last 2 weeks, Coke changing things up...good to see the marketing guys having a go, Coke has one of the biggest merchandising and marketing teams in the country.
~


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 October 2014)

Every time I go shopping at Woolies, the softdrink aisle has boxes of Coke and associated brands stacked up along the aisle floor in front of shelves. Maybe it's an oversupply issue and the company needs to throttle back on production for a bit and let the cravings build up in customers. Well with Christmas soon and the rise in parties/barbies etc., Coke and associated brands might get a sales lift.


----------



## burglar (30 October 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> I have seen a lot of these ads around town over the last 2 weeks, Coke changing things up...good to see the marketing guys having a go, Coke has one of the biggest merchandising and marketing teams in the country.
> ~




A distinctive bottle, drawn on the otherwise plain can! QI


----------



## So_Cynical (30 October 2014)

burglar said:


> A distinctive bottle, drawn on the otherwise plain can! QI




That distinctive bottle (thinking about it) is probably one of if not the most recognisable bottle in the history of bottles, with just a silhouette and no branding at all every body knows what it is...that's an amazing level of brand recognition.


----------



## ROE (30 October 2014)

TPI said:


> ROE, did you pull the trigger on more CCL today?
> 
> Coke Life will be interesting, only just released in UK and US soon I think, and already in some South American countries but slightly different flavour there apparently.
> 
> April launch date will give more time to see the overseas response.




I pulled the trigger a while ago from low 9 and bag first dividend and average down to low 8

I keep buying as I got cash come in didn't worry me too much a business like Coke
the fact is these business are best buy when they have negative sentiments, any other times you be paying a much higher price


----------



## ROE (30 October 2014)

skc said:


> Green coke anyone?
> 
> View attachment 60064
> 
> ...




Agree, I like the red and white colour better, probably one of a very simple yet very recognisable
brand.

I hope they dont go overboard because of the pressure they are under and start playing with all sort of
stuff, even stuff that are still very good and need no touching... red and white label brand is perfect no need to mess with it.


----------



## JTLP (30 October 2014)

ROE said:


> Agree, I like the red and white colour better, probably one of a very simple yet very recognisable
> brand.
> 
> I hope they dont go overboard because of the pressure they are under and start playing with all sort of
> stuff, even stuff that are still very good and need no touching... red and white label brand is perfect no need to mess with it.




Hi ROE,

They've actually been running this 'Coke Life' in Sth America and a few other markets, and it's tested very positively for them.

The core of this product will be 
A) How cannibalistic it is to their core?
B) Does it deliver a better margin?
C) Is it enough to regain lapsed coke users/non buyers?

I find Coke interesting because they're a beverage company that I would assume have quite a few brands playing in the same occasions?

Anyway I'm yet to see price realization on many supermarket categories so I guess this is a wait and see...under $8.50 though would have been a good pick up!


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 October 2014)

One bar up doesn't make a trend change.


----------



## TPI (30 October 2014)

ROE said:


> I pulled the trigger a while ago from low 9 and bag first dividend and average down to low 8
> 
> I keep buying as I got cash come in didn't worry me too much a business like Coke
> the fact is these business are best buy when they have negative sentiments, any other times you be paying a much higher price




Thanks ROE, very true. I wasn't game to buy till after the strategic review was released, though in hindsight some of the likely key features were already dripping through into AFR in the weeks and months prior.


----------



## dlineinvestor (3 November 2014)

If the recent change in sentiment can maintain itself. CCL may even fill the previous gap down. (from 10.88) seen on daily chart
Expanding into Indonesian must not be a bad thing.
Weekly chart looking good
*Volume on gap up (Daily chart)
*Pos Divergence 

Moving today .... 
Looking like a good position "TPI"


----------



## peter2 (22 March 2015)

Sorry, missed this one Fri. The chart shows the high close to a new high with above ave volume, that I like. 

Damn, and I drink the main product too.


----------



## PeterJ (22 March 2015)

Peter
had this one in a watch list for awhile
line charts have been helping me recently

Ps


----------



## Gordon7 (28 March 2015)

This is my take on CCL since there has been mostly short term analysis on it here and elsewhere and since my initial post here :
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29451

In the larger picture CCL has been through a severe bear trend, a basing period which commenced in April 2014 through around January of this year and is now in the early stages of a bull run/decent run up. I bought the break out at $9.40 as per the reasoning in the above mentioned post. 

This week when the ascending triangle breakout failed to proceed in a timely manner to its measured target at around $11.30 I drew in the resistance line just under $11.00. This looks very formidable. Whilst the overall upward momentum still remains intact I would not be surprised to see some range bound trading for a while. I am maintaining a trailing stop (based on ATR) as per my original trading plan, which is currently around $10.40. A break below $10.00 would certainly be bearish.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 June 2015)

CCL Australia trying different colour, size and sugar hit to encourage product consumption. I went grocery shopping at Woolies this morning and the softdrink shelves were full with cartons stacked in the aisle as well. In my opinion there is definitely a move away from sugary drinks at present but this is a cyclical consumer thing.


----------



## So_Cynical (11 June 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> In my opinion there is definitely a move away from sugary drinks at present but this is a cyclical consumer thing.




Enjoying a ZICO Coconut water the other day, while reading the packaging was surprised and happy to see that the product is 100% sugar free, packaged sold by Coca-Cola Amatil.

Coke is more than just sugary drinks, has been that way for quite a while.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZICO_(beverage)


----------



## Value Collector (11 June 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> Enjoying a ZICO Coconut water the other day, while reading the packaging was surprised and happy to see that the product is 100% sugar free , packaged sold by Coca-Cola Amatil.
> 
> Coke is more than just sugary drinks, has been that way for quite a while.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZICO_(beverage)




As a Berkshire Hathaway share holder, I indirectly hold shares in the Coca cola company, so have looked at their businesses, and with Cola products representing  more than 70% of sales, Coke won't see growth unless the "soft drink business sees growth, I believe there will be solid growth over the future years though, it will probably stagnate or grow very little in the developed world, but the emerging markets have a lot of space to grow the soft drink market, Eventually the world will add another USA worth of consumers to the category.



> ZICO Coconut water the other day, while reading the packaging was surprised and happy to see that the product is 100% sugar free




Maybe it said no added sugar, because coconut water does contain sugar, I think about 14grams in a 300ml serving.

But there is nothing wrong with sugar anyway.


----------



## So_Cynical (11 June 2015)

Value Collector said:


> Maybe it said no added sugar, because coconut water does contain sugar, I think about 14grams in a 300ml serving.
> 
> But there is nothing wrong with sugar anyway.




Added sugar is the only sugar that interests me, the only drink that doesn't have natural sugar is water.


----------



## Value Collector (11 June 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> , the only drink that doesn't have natural sugar is water.




Coke Zero has zero sugar, so do a lot of other drinks.


----------



## symmetry (25 December 2015)

cca - something up - price down -  inside company is losing a lot of money. jobs going and lots of manufacturing down - sales down ...  really bad - some news is evident in new year ..   someone big is shorting too so lets see . company  had $9  as a target to stay above!   so maybe CEO to resign ?

be interesting to see -  3 months research on this BTW


----------



## Ann (26 December 2015)

G'day All

Best wishes to you and good trading in 2016

This is just for a bit of fun, I don't hold nor plan to hold. These are both long term charts set on a monthly view.

Sometimes I can see a clear pattern on a chart pointing in a certain way....and sometimes I can see an equal and opposite pattern on the exact same chart. With CCL this is one of those occasions where I can see as much negative as positive. 

On the first chart drawn in Candlesticks I can see a stock which has been traveling in a very long term channel and it is now touching the bottom line of the channel, which in theory should offer a good buying opportunity for future rises.

On the second chart set in EOD for ease of viewing but otherwise the same chart, I can see a fully formed and bearish Head and Shoulders pattern which is right at the point where it could show quite a bit of downside.  

I can hear people saying, "Well what is the point of charting? Flip a coin!" I can see their point but if I was going in at this time I would know there is a visible risk and I would know to set my stops to compensate and watch them closely or just not go into the buy until I felt the H&S risk was gone.


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## Gringotts Bank (23 April 2017)

Sugary drinks seem to be quite poisonous for the body, according to new research (no, you look it up yourself).  I'm noticing soft drink and potato chips are piling up in supermarkets.  No buyers.

CCL looks to be in trouble.


----------



## AlwaysBeClosing (24 April 2017)

According to research we did in primary school the past thirty years (coin in Coke).  No buyers?  I think you're mistaken.


----------



## Miner (24 April 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sugary drinks seem to be quite poisonous for the body, according to new research (no, you look it up yourself).  I'm noticing soft drink and potato chips are piling up in supermarkets.  No buyers.
> 
> CCL looks to be in trouble.



If people behaved nicely for health then the alcohol and smoker sales would have bottomed down.
Ccl makes coke and other stuff. So even coke has sugar it will be consumed and Ccl would go up. 
dont hold


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 April 2017)

Miner said:


> If people behaved nicely for health then the alcohol and smoker sales would have bottomed down.
> Ccl makes coke and other stuff. So even coke has sugar it will be consumed and Ccl would go up.
> dont hold




Good points, but I think it's much more about image than health.  Being fat attracts a lot more shame than being a smoker/drinker.  There's the onslaught of cooking shows and Jamie Olivers and god-knows-what cooking healthy food.  That makes it cool.  There's also those fat buster TV shows - a lot of media pressure for correcting fatness, where there's no such pressure for correcting alcohol or nicotine use.  

@Always - no buyers?  Visit a supermarket.  Every week, the sugary drinks and chips are piled up in the "please buy me" sections.


----------



## AlwaysBeClosing (24 April 2017)

Of course, they're always on offer to encourage buyers; that doesn't mean they're not selling though - check trolleys and the checkouts, people are definitely buying; they're (CCL) not going anywhere.  Remember that soft drinks are the main drink products sold in fast food restaurants, which seem extremely busy (at least in the CBD) whenever I walk by. 

I think you underestimate how few people watch TV and those programs.

You can still drink and eat indoors but you can't smoke, they've been relegated to smoking outside as it affects others, whereas being fat does not (well, in terms of passive fatness anyway).  I eat crisps and don't get fat, and sometimes drink soft drinks but again, I don't have that issue.  Moderation is key for weight, and I can't see this drop being long-term at all - I'm going to buy in as soon as I feel it's hit the bottom.


----------



## peter2 (25 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> CCL looks to be in trouble.




CCL struggling with anti-sugar sentiment and now can't get (or won't pay for) shelf space in Woolies. 
Large supermarkets have been squeezing our farmers for years. Now they're squeezing all producers.


----------



## skc (25 July 2017)

peter2 said:


> CCL struggling with anti-sugar sentiment and now can't get (or won't pay for) shelf space in Woolies.
> Large supermarkets have been squeezing our farmers for years. Now they're squeezing all producers.
> 
> View attachment 71997



Since the profit downgrade back in April the negative news flow hasn't abated. I expected more weakness today but it wouldn't surprise me for this to test the key $8 mark before the end of the week. 

The supermarkets have been squeezing suppliers for a long time... but Coke used to be able to stand up for itself. It's major battle was against Pepsi's pricing. But now clearly their wholesale customer is also their competitor in categories like bottled water. It will only be a matter of time before we see Mount Franklin being replaced by private label water in the convenience cold fridge near the checkouts.


----------



## peter2 (27 April 2018)

CCL is one of many companies I've decided to avoid. In CCL's case, any tax on sugar would hit their earnings and the share price. 

Since the 7.50 low, price has stubbornly pushed higher (corrective pattern). The recent daily chart shows a great BO-HR setup that is perfect with a recent HL forming before the BO. I saw it and decided "no deal".

Of course  price continues higher. I'm showing this chart as an example of how our personal biases can make us ignore a perfectly good setup. If price goes back to the old highs near $10.50 I'll raise an ice-cold Coke to it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 April 2018)

I like the chart, and I think at some point - not sure when - they will say 'we were wrong about sugar' because that's what happens to almost all research findings at some point.  All findings get revised, and often replaced entirely.  The only sure bet is that it will happen.  Medical researchers are almost on a par with economic forecasters.


----------



## So_Cynical (27 April 2018)

On the plus side of the ledger CCL have reduced debt and the Indo adventure is starting to pay off, larger CAPEX this year but with significant scope to fall in following years...glass half full.


----------



## greggles (5 July 2018)

12 month highs for CCL today as it punches through $9.50 to $9.525, beating the previous high of $9.50 made on 8 May.

I thought sugar laden fizzy drink was out these days? What are CCL doing right?


----------



## greggles (30 November 2018)

The Coca-Cola Amatil share price has plunged today after announcing that it is selling its loss making SPC fruit and tomato business.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/spc-to-be-sold-by-coca-cola-amatil-20181130-p50jbc.html

CCL is currently down 13.37% to $8.75. Six months worth of share price gains erased in one day.


----------



## Miner (30 November 2018)

greggles said:


> The Coca-Cola Amatil share price has plunged today after announcing that it is selling its loss making SPC fruit and tomato business.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/spc-to-be-sold-by-coca-cola-amatil-20181130-p50jbc.html
> 
> ...



Greg
What the chart is telling us today - opportunity or further crash ?
As a company CCL is world wide so they would not be letting it go down in Aus. But how much blood shed for that ? The current CEO is obviously not working. Ethically companies like Coco Cola only increase calories.
What do you and others eg Ann, T/A, So Cynical, Bearney, SKC say ?
Could CCL have taken the opportunity to export fruits like Costa instead of selling out ?
DNH
Cheers


----------



## sasch (30 November 2018)

Miner said:


> Greg
> What the chart is telling us today - opportunity or further crash ?
> As a company CCL is world wide so they would not be letting it go down in Aus. But how much blood shed for that ? The current CEO is obviously not working. Ethically companies like Coco Cola only increase calories.
> What do you and others eg Ann, T/A, So Cynical, Bearney, SKC say ?
> ...




Hi Miner,

CCL looks like it has been in a holding/ranging pattern for the last four years. On the monthly chart, it has failed to reach the last monthly high, which is a worrying sign, as it could be heading for another leg down - possibly ~$6.

In my opinion, the chart represents the fundamentals of the company. A company currently selling outdated products and in need of transition. SPC/canned foods is a category that is not popular anymore, as can be seen in the shrinking amount of shelves in the supermarkets.

Soft drinks are also on the nose at the moment, and this is a worry for the hero product.

However, they have a great distribution network and infrastructure for getting there products on the shelf/display. But, have to spend more money on future products/drinks to transition into a modern beverage company, and to proceed to the next growth phase. Unfortunately, they are heavily reliant on the parent company in this regard.

Just my take.


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## Miner (30 November 2018)

sasch said:


> Hi Miner,
> 
> CCL looks like it has been in a holding/ranging pattern for the last four years. On the monthly chart, it has failed to reach the last monthly high, which is a worrying sign, as it could be heading for another leg down - possibly ~$6.
> 
> ...



Thanks Sasch
Very pertinent points. I am trying to be more forthcoming to sound on ASF for stopping me some of the hasty decisions taken in the past.
Your posting has put a right brake avoiding going into a ditch.
Have a nice weekend and thanks again.


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## Ann (16 April 2019)

This is a good move, there is just so much waste and pollution with plastic bottles. I would love to see Victoria put a deposit on bottles again. I used to make quite a few bob as a kid gathering up and selling the bottles. We invested in a Soda Stream at home, it is so much easier than carting home mountains of Soda water bottles and then filling my recycle bin with empty plastic bottles. 
I think the heading is a bit misleading they aren't going to cut plastic use, just use recycled plastic.

*Coke to cut plastic use by 16,000 tonnes *

_Beverage giant Coca-Cola is doubling the amount of recycled plastic it uses across its Australian beverage arm, with seven in 10 drink bottles to be made from 100 per cent recycled materials by the end of 2019. 

All small packages 600ml and under, including brands such as Coca-Cola, Sprite and Fanta, will be made entirely from recycled plastic, reducing the amount of new plastic resin the company uses by an estimated 16,000 tonnes each year from 2020.More..._
*
*


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## rnr (1 December 2019)

On November 18th CCL closed a gap dating back to April 2014 and as can be seen on the daily chart above, resistance appears to be forming support as CCL consolidates below the overhead resistance of yet another unfilled gap dating back to Feb 2014.

However, as evidenced in the weekly chart below, CCL still has some significant gaps to contend with above the current closing price of $11.38.


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## Trav. (1 December 2019)

@rnr is that a DOS based system you are running your charts on ? 

Gaps are interesting and I often think how long they are viable for?

Is the one on your daily chart 15-18 Novemeber ( 5 cents or  ) more relevant than a gap in 2014 ??

I suppose it might depend on the time frame that you are working with.


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## rnr (1 December 2019)

Trav. said:


> @rnr
> 
> Gaps are interesting and I often think how long they are viable for?
> 
> ...




Hi Trav,

I treat past gaps as a potential area of either support or resistance, obviously depending on whether price is moving up or down.  
When reviewing a chart I endeavor to mark any gaps on a daily chart so that these gaps are obvious, even when switching from a daily to a weekly chart. As an example the gap down on Nov 30th 2018 from a close of $10.10 (29/11) to a close of $8.64 (30/11) included a gap down of 50¢ but does not show up on a weekly chart.
Whether I am trading off a daily chart or a weekly chart I would sooner know that info in advance.

The magnitude of the gap may obviously impact the ability of price to overcome the S or R but I don't think the gap in time has that much relevance. Observing the volume action around the time of the gap is definitely of more significance.

I must remember to congratulate @joeblow on that new auto delete function when a USER has been a bit cheeky on a post to which you are responding. 

Cheers,
Rob


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## Miner (9 May 2020)

I was wondering how can CCL make a money with winter coming, people are conscious of calories and sugar . Interestingly I found Bell Potter and another Sydney broker have recommended CCL as a buy whereas the below article says CCL is a buy.
So confusing and my gut feeling says, CCL is a sell regardless what charts appearing.
Your thoughts please
Regards
BROKER SAYS :
 coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (CCL) $8.66. *Up 2.97% *(please see chart attached or below).

 On the 1:2 Trend Line (= 1 unit of Price to 2 units of Time)

Double Bottom Reversal Pattern

Peter Steidelmayer b-Formation (= Buy the Lower 1/8)









Trade Idea:

*Buy the June 1 Cent Call*

 Mental Sell Stop Limit Below (at $8.00 or Above)


*For Example – General Advice Only:*
*isk if sold at $8.00*: ($8.66 – $8.00) x 2,500 =  *$1,650.* More if sold below $8.00 (plus transaction costs).

================


*Sell - broker 2 *
*Coca-Cola Amatil*
*(CCL.AX)*
*Raising debt, withdrawing dividend guidance as COVID-19 impacts*
18 April 2020 | 12:12PM AEST

CCL provided an update to market, post the end of peak summer trading (marked by Easter) and leading into Ramadan trading peak in Indonesia. Group volumes increased low single digits in 1Q20 but fell 30% in the first two weeks of April. Australian volumes declined 15% in April with On-The-Go (OTG) down 50%. EBIT declined mid teens percentages in 1Q20. CCL will provide another COVID-19 update at its AGM on May 26.

The outlook was modestly more adverse than anticipated in our note, Exposed to lock downs from April 6. Loss of high margin OTG sales will be a significant earnings headwind in 2020, though partly offset by forecast cost reductions of A$140mn (mostly temporary).

The telling feature of this update is the effort CCL is going to in order to bulk up its defences through increased debt funding (A$200mn raised and another A$150mn anticipated in this half), reduced capex guidance (from A$300mn to A$200mn) and withdrawal of its dividend payout ratio guidance (previously "above 80%"). CCL has a strong balance sheet with BBB+ credit rating (S&P), and we forecast this to remain the case over 2020, before improving in 2021. In our view, the preemptive fundraising highlights how unpredictable conditions are for CCL currently.

NPAT forecasts have been revised -2% in FY20 but FY21 forecasts are unchanged. GSe was 15% below consensus in FY20 into this update, so we expect a greater earnings impact to consensus forecasts. EPS of A$0.443 implies a 2020 PE of 19.5x. Our 12-month target price is at A$8.90 implying upside of +3.1%. We are Sell-rated on CCL.

*Trading update shows material step down*
CCL reported low single digit volume and revenue growth, EBIT was down by a mid-teens percentage for the quarter due to bushfires in Australia, additional marketing expenditure in Indonesia and impact of social distancing restrictions across various regions, with positive impacts in supermarkets unable to offset the detrimental trends in On-The-Go channels.


*Australia *volumes were down 1% in 1Q20 but with mid-teens percentage impact on EBIT. Volumes were however down -15% in the first two weeks of April, mainly led by decline in OTG by -50% (GSe base case impact -55%). Alcohol volumes in the region were also down 20% due to stronger on premise declines.


*New Zealand and Fiji* revenue was up low single digits and EBIT up low teen percentage in 1Q20. The first two weeks of 2Q20 however registered a 25% decline in volumes.


*Indonesia and PNG* volumes were up mid single digits in 1Q20, but resulting in an EBIT loss due to increased wage and marketing costs. Trading in the first 2 weeks of April was down c.50% in Indonesia and -40% in PNG.


*COVID-19 response: *Management has guided on FY20 capex target being reduced to A$200mn (vs. A$300mn earlier). Additionally, the group is also targeting cost savings of A$140mn, before the benefit of government support.


*Balance Sheet: *The group has successfully placed 10-year notes of A$200mn on 6th April 2020 and is looking to raise another A$150mn. As at 31 March 2020, the group also had c.A$1.8bn of debt facilities (A$2.6bn of committed facilities) and A$920mn of cash.


*Dividend *payout ratio guidance has been withdrawn.


*Earning changes*
We revise our group EBIT estimates for FY20 by -3.2% and FY21 by -0.2%. These changes are largely driven by:


*Indonesia and PNG: *Sales volumes in this region has been reported to be down -50% and -40% respectively in Indonesia and PNG during the 1st two weeks of April. These declines are well ahead of our earlier expectations and we expect this to remain significant through the key Ramadan trading period. Resultantly, we revise our FY20 sales estimates by -18.5% and EBIT estimates by -35.4%, the higher impact of operating leverage being partially offset by the cost savings initiatives.


*Australia and NZ and Fiji:* We revise the Australia estimates by +4.4% and New Zealand and Fiji by +0.8% for FY20 accounting for the larger-than-expected cost savings initiatives announced. However, we expect this to be largely temporary and do not forecast these cost savings to be continued in FY21 and beyond.

*Exhibit 1 : CCL: Summary of earnings revisions*

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Overall, we revise our NPAT forecasts by -2% in FY20 but maintain FY21 forecasts unchanged.

We also revise FY20 capital expenditure forecasts to be in line with management guidance of A$200mn due to reduced spending on discretionary projects.

*Balance Sheet:* Despite the significant earnings uncertainties seen for CCL in the near-term, we remain comfortable regarding the group's balance sheet position. The group has debt maturities worth A$305mn coming up for repayment in FY20 and A$310mn in FY21.

We expect dividend to be reduced to A??37 in FY20 vs. A??47 in FY19, with payout at c. 84% (despite withdrawn payout guidance of "more than 80%"). Post dividend payment, we forecast Free cashflow to be positive at c. A$74mn (inclusive of A$60mn reduction in tax due to utilisation of deferred tax assets). Lease adjusted net debt to EBITDA is forecast to increase to c. 2.7x (adjusted for the cash deposit in Indonesia and PNG) in FY20, below S&P's 3x threshold for CCL's BBB+ credit rating.

*Exhibit 2 : Free cash flow post dividend obligations is expected to remain skinny in FY20*

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

*Exhibit 3 : CCL's leverage for FY20 is expected to increase to 2.7x on a lease adjusted basis, but reduce beyond that*

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

*Valuation and Risks*

Our fundamental valuation for CCL (85% weighting) remains based on a 50/50 weighted split of EV/EBIT-based SOTP and DCF valuation. Our FY20 EV/EBIT-based SOTP valuation is at A$7.40 (vs. A$7.50 earlier). Our DCF implies a net present value of A$10.30 (vs. A$10.10 earlier). In addition to the fundamental valuation, we include an M&A value of A$9.30 (vs. A$9.50 earlier) (15% weighting) which is based on the historic peak P/E multiple for the stock (21x). Our 12-month target price remains at A$8.90 implying upside of +3.1%. We are Sell-rated on CCL.

*Exhibit 4 : Our Target Price on CCL remains unchanged at A$8.90*

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

*Key upside risks are:* Less competition in the grocery channel, better CSD category growth, larger than expected cost savings, and successful implementation of the 'Beverages for Life' strategy.

Andrew McLennan
+61 2 9320-1488
andrew.j.mclennan@gs.com
Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd
Darshana Nair Syama
+61 2 9320-1395
darshana.nairsyama@gs.com
Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd


Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.


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## makteb (24 June 2020)

If your bearish, did you mean sell the call?


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## qldfrog (24 June 2020)

CCL has always been a disappointment for me each time ...
A go nowhere company whose only excitement comes from its name.
Never understood why it never does or did better.. maybe wrong management or falling asleep at the wheel..


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## Miner (24 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> CCL has always been a disappointment for me each time ...
> A go nowhere company whose only excitement comes from its name.
> Never understood why it never does or did better.. maybe wrong management or falling asleep at the wheel..



People are primarily responding to a better health style with lesser sugar on daily intake.
This is winter. 
The adverts for coke and peppy are not the same.


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 June 2020)

Miner said:


> People are primarily responding to a better health style with lesser sugar on daily intake.
> This is winter.
> The adverts for coke and peppy are not the same.



I would agree @Miner . CCL have taken their eye off the ball. An example.

One rarely sees cars, vans or trucks with the Coke logo all over them.

In the supermarkets people are concentrating on price per litre rather than "big buys". Admittedly they have diversified in to energy drinks and water. 

I have diversified in to tap water. 

gg


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## qldfrog (25 June 2020)

Miner said:


> People are primarily responding to a better health style with lesser sugar on daily intake.
> This is winter.
> The adverts for coke and peppy are not the same.



At at a stage they had a 300million market who does not get a sxit about sugar level in Indonesia and surrounding Melanesia and they blew it a big way.They should be a money printing machine but somehow lost their way; most of the pseudo healthy food in supermarket are CCL bottling, flavored water etc yet; and Coke is replaced by Gatorage...sugar branded for sport people..same sxit different branding /image
I saw a couple in their 40s on breakfast this week: lady buys water, man Gatorade, he was waking up, not back from a marathon...
I think CCL just lost their way...


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## Trav. (23 October 2020)

I hold CCL as part of my CAM strategy and today they are in trading halt.

You can't test this in a system, but hopefully this is a positive move by the company.


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## Trav. (25 October 2020)

"Potential material transactioninvolving the company"

Well I read that like CCL was going to buy another company, not the other way around...it is interesting how we put our own twist on a couple of words.. Unconscious Bias ?









						Coca-Cola European Partners in talks to buy Coca-Cola Amatil
					

A deal would be the largest involving an Australian company this year, Bloomberg said




					tbsnews.net


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## aus_trader (25 October 2020)

I wander if there was some information circulating around before the trading halt, you know hush hush insider stuff , as there was a steep rise in share price:


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## Trav. (26 October 2020)

Update on the offer released today






If CCL trades at the proposed offer then that will be a nice little profit for me here and I will probably exit the trade at this point. 

My entry was @ $9.90 so I will have to wait and see what happens when trading resumes

In regards to system trading this is where I haven't got any rules and obviously haven't back tested this sort of issue. I think that the normal SP action is that it rises to the offer level and sits there for a period of several weeks due to approvals etc so I think that utilising the money in another trade would be more beneficial.


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## aus_trader (27 October 2020)

Trav. said:


> Update on the offer released today
> 
> View attachment 113690
> 
> ...



Nice premium and well done for getting in under 10 bucks.

But I also feel a lot of the good long term dividend paying blue chips such as CCL are getting taken over and disappear from the ASX. So that's the sad part, as it leaves the ASX even more concentrated to the big4 and miners as other good companies get taken away.


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## tinhat (27 October 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Nice premium and well done for getting in under 10 bucks.
> 
> But I also feel a lot of the good long term dividend paying blue chips such as CCL are getting taken over and disappear from the ASX. So that's the sad part, as it leaves the ASX even more concentrated to the big4 and miners as other good companies get taken away.




What nonsense. Are we to lament that idiots that treasure sugar water as a valuable commodity sold out their loly water rights to some sort of global lolly water... look if you want to invest your money in lolly water then you are a bit stupid.


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## aus_trader (27 October 2020)

tinhat said:


> What nonsense. Are we to lament that idiots that treasure sugar water as a valuable commodity sold out their loly water rights to some sort of global lolly water... look if you want to invest your money in lolly water then you are a bit stupid.



I am not going to get into the ethics etc. So you could be right on that front and I might even agree that sugary fizzy drinks cause more harm than good.

But from an investment point of view these are the sort of companies you want for long term dividend investing. Warren Buffet became the greatest investor by buying and holding companies like Coca Cola and collecting truck loads of dividends along the way.


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## Dona Ferentes (27 October 2020)

aus_trader said:


> But I also feel a lot of the good long term dividend paying blue chips such as CCL are getting taken over and disappear from the ASX. So that's the sad part, as it leaves the ASX even more concentrated to the big4 and miners as other good companies get taken away.








						ASX 20 List - Data for ASX Top 20 Companies
					

Download an up-to-date list of Australia's top 20 companies. Constituent data includes GICS Sectors, market cap and index weighting.




					www.asx20list.com
				





CSLCSL LtdHealth Care129,254,000,000CBACommonwealth Bank of AustraliaFinancials113,118,000,000BHPBHP Group LtdMaterials105,196,000,000WBCWestpac Banking CorporationFinancials62,698,800,000NABNational Australia Bank LtdFinancials57,372,200,000ANZAustralia and New Zealand Banking Group LtdFinancials51,193,000,000WESWesfarmers LtdConsumer Discretionary46,101,900,000WOWWoolworths Group LtdConsumer Staples44,561,800,000TCLTransurban GroupIndustrials39,358,100,000MQGMacquarie Group LtdFinancials39,155,600,000TLSTelstra Corporation LtdTelecommunication Services38,296,400,000RIORIO Tinto LtdMaterials36,093,400,000GMGGoodman GroupReal Estate28,139,300,000NCMNewcrest Mining LtdMaterials25,395,500,000WPLWoodside Petroleum LtdEnergy21,883,400,000BXBBrambles LtdIndustrials17,635,900,000AMCAmcor PlcMaterials14,532,200,000IAGInsurance Australia Group LtdFinancials13,935,600,000SUNSuncorp Group LtdFinancials11,588,100,000SCGScentre GroupReal Estate11,366,900,000


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## Trav. (28 October 2020)

A good article on the take over offer









						Coca-Cola Amatil to consider $9.3 billion takeover offer from Coca-Cola Europe
					

Iconic drinks giant Coca-Cola Amatil (ASX: CCL) has agreed to consider a $9.3 billion takeover bid from UK-based Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP) for the acquisition of 69.2% of issued shares not owned by The Coca-Cola Company.




					smallcaps.com.au


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## Dona Ferentes (28 October 2020)

No one else was going to be in the action


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## System (13 May 2021)

On May 11th, 2021, Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between CCL and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in CCL by Coca-Cola European Partners plc.


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