# Stock Doctor



## WaySolid

Does anybody have any feedback on Stock Doctor? 

I think the $50 trial for one month (refundable off the purchase price if you buy) is a tempting choice as the software looks excellent from the demo's I have seen.

WaySolid


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## GreatPig

WaySolid,

While I have no experience with it personally, I've heard it's quite good but also rather expensive.

You could try asking Aceyducey (back in Somersoft, as I haven't seen him post here for some time) as I think he has it.

Cheers,
GP


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## sichy

Though i might revive this thread after 7 years... Surely someone here is using this software? Any comments?


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## titl4

sichy said:


> Though i might revive this thread after 7 years... Surely someone here is using this software? Any comments?



 I haven't used their software but I do have units in their managed fund.  In that investment I'm still way behind par since the GFC although some ground has been made up.


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## tinhat

sichy said:


> Though i might revive this thread after 7 years... Surely someone here is using this software? Any comments?




I am using Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor. I started subscribing in November 2010. I'm new to stock investing so I can't really give a perspective on how well it has served me yet. I was googling one day looking for "fundamental analysis" and came across something by Alan Hull and he mentioned Stock Doctor in on his website and that is how I found it.

It has to be appreciated for what it is. It is not a buy/sell recommendation service. It applies a mainly statistical analytical process to company financial data to rate a company's health (strong, satisfactory, early warning, marginal, distressed). It then also identifies "star stocks" that meet certain criteria, ROA, EPSG, and so on and which are deemed (constantly healthy). For those companies that are "star stocks" Lincoln analysts provide an ongoing valuation and in-depth analysis with is reviewed in a timely manner in response to announcements and developments.

The software provides detailed financial info on all ASX stocks including broker consensus forecasts. This data comes from Reuters Thompson and Morningstar I believe. It has a decent charting tool and the ability to create detailed and complex filters for both technical analysis of share price and fundamental analysis of company finances. The most simple filter to run is an "undervalued star stock" filter. This will produce a report of those star stocks that are trading at a discount to the Lincoln valuation. I then run this list through a technical filter which applies the Alan Hull ActVest system which in a nutshell gives me financially healthy stocks potentially trading at a discount to true value that are in a sustained share price up-trend. 

While "market sentiment" is listed as one of the Lincoln nine rules of investing, Stock Doctor doesn't provide any analysis if timing. It will identify stocks trading below Lincoln valuation and below broker consensus valuation. It does provide very functional charting application and technical filters to help you decide on buy/sell timing but provides no system for deciding. Buy and sell timing is up to you and Lincoln make no suggestions. It is not an advisory nor a financial planning service.

One criticism you will hear of Stock Doctor is that it doesn't alert you early enough to emerging opportunities. For example, MCE, a stellar performer and a company with solid fundamentals and great prospects only became a Star Stock this reporting season. By definition, it could not have been a star stock prior to this because one of the star stock criteria is EPS growth over 8% for at least 18 months, and MCE only listed mid 2010. So, by definition, stocks are not going to be identified as star stocks until they have been emergent and growing strongly over the medium term. So, for the conservative active investor, stock doctor identifies those companies with the strongest fundamentals (lowest risk of suffering financial hardship in a downturn, going broke) that are achieving solid sustained growth.

Another criticism of Stock Doctor that users have been providing feedback on in their investor network has been the churn rate of Star stocks in and out. Especially this reporting season. Some stocks have come in too late in their growth cycle and their subsequent performance disappoints. One bad reporting season and a star stock is out.

There has also been a lot of discussion recently on the investor network about the number of mining and mining related stocks have come in as star stocks this reporting season. Just some examples are OZL, MGX and FMG. This raises all sorts of questions that investors should already be addressing in their investment strategy anyway; where in the price cycle is iron ore, copper, etc; what are their long term outlooks; volatility of prices and profits and share price risk.

I would imagine that most conservative active investors such as myself hold a certain proportion of stocks that are not currently stock doctor stocks but are blue-chips, a certain proportion of stock doctor stocks (low fundamental risk high growth stocks) and a possibly certain proportion of more speculative plays.

In any case, even if you ignore the Lincoln "star stock" methodology, Stock Doctor excels as a information source for fundamental and technical analysis of ASX listed stocks. it provides detailed financial information for companies beyond what you can get for free on the web. Things such as PEG (PE to Earnings Growth ratio), ex dividend dates, links to all company ASX announcements. Furthermore, all the data is available to run through the filters.

Another part of the service is access to the Lincoln analysts. As a subscriber you can telephone and talk directly with the relevant analyst for a company or sector. I've telephoned and spoken with the analysts several times and this has been invaluable in making decisions. Lincoln constantly publish analysis for subscribers on their investor network too. This includes a daily stock market chat with subscribers, weekly stock market reviews, general economic commentary. From time to time analysts will also publish commentary on non-star stocks which they identify as potential out-performers. In the recent past these have included Legend and Silver Chef.

In terms of customer support Lincoln are very responsive. They hold regular coaching seminars including webinars. Their technical support is very responsive and their analysts are always available on the other end of the phone to subscribers.

My objectives in subscribing to stock doctor can be summed up as:


Fundamental analysis of the financial health a company and the intrinsic value of its shares.
Identify companies with solid growth/outperform potential both within and importantly outside of the S&P 200.
Outperform alternative investment options without taking on excessive risk.

I'll come back in a year's time and update my findings on how Stock Doctor has actually my stock investments perform.


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## sichy

Thanks Tinhat! Very concise and enjoyable read. Thanks for taking the time to write such a detailed review.


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## Noddy

Tinhat,
Thanks for the info re Stock Doctor, very comprehensive summary.
One thing you didn't mention though, was the cost.
From memory it is somewhere between $1500 and $2000 per year, depending on whether you subscribed at the regular or discounted price.
Is that still the case ?


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## tinhat

I subscribed for $1,595 for 15 months (one year plus a promo bonus of 3 months), but I see on the website the subscription is now $1,895 for one year. They have a national road show of "user group meetings" every year and I went to one last October and they had the special then. You can subscribe to a 30 day demo for $50.



Noddy said:


> Tinhat,
> Thanks for the info re Stock Doctor, very comprehensive summary.
> One thing you didn't mention though, was the cost.
> From memory it is somewhere between $1500 and $2000 per year, depending on whether you subscribed at the regular or discounted price.
> Is that still the case ?


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## Noddy

tinhat said:


> I subscribed for $1,595 for 15 months (one year plus a promo bonus of 3 months), but I see on the website the subscription is now $1,895 for one year. They have a national road show of "user group meetings" every year and I went to one last October and they had the special then. You can subscribe to a 30 day demo for $50.




Thanks for the info Tinhat.
Wasn't aware of the monthly trial. Must be new.
Have been to one of their seminars and thought their system was very good, but a bit expensive. May try out the 30 day demo.


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## Boggo

tinhat said:


> They have a national road show of "user group meetings" every year and I went to one last October and they had the special then.




I would recommend attending one of those meetings, there is no hard sell, just a very professional presentation.

I have had StockDoctor with my SMSF for about six years, I didn't renew last year as I found that using my own trading system on the ASX300 seemed to suit me better while I have the time to actively monitor my holdings with a charting approach.

An interesting area that often amuses me is when I hear or see the fundamentalist investors talk about the likes of WOW and TLS etc, most of them have never heard of the really fundamentally sound stocks that StockDoctor identifies such as MND etc. but that's another story.

If you are running your own SMSF etc with a fundamental investment approach then StockDoctor is an essential piece of software imo.


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## Cazz42

tinhat said:


> I subscribed for $1,595 for 15 months (one year plus a promo bonus of 3 months), but I see on the website the subscription is now $1,895 for one year. They have a national road show of "user group meetings" every year and I went to one last October and they had the special then. You can subscribe to a 30 day demo for $50.




Hey tinhat, what's your feedback on Stock Doctor two years down the track?

Are you still using it?

Cheers
Cazz42


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## tinhat

Hi Cazz42

As I started thinking about a reply, the first thing I realised was just how much the company and the service has developed in the past couple of years. I've just renewed again so am now into my third year of subscription.

Over the past couple of years Lincoln have tweaked their metrics a couple of times here and there. They seem to be in the background running things through their models and they back-test any changes they make to their financial health model. So they have slightly different financial health models which they apply to banks, miners, small caps and everything else. 

They now have a "borderline star stock", which it took them a while to giggle around with to get the concept right, but these are stocks which don't meet the criteria to become star stocks just now, but which  the analysts forecast will do so in future. Usually, these are companies which haven't attained EPS growth of 8% or higher but which are forecast to do so in future periods.

The "star stock" model basically aims to find those companies with strong balance sheets (low risk of failure) with strong growth profiles and strong growth potential. It is mainly geared towards finding medium term strong growth prospects. The analysts for the company will then provide a fairly conservative valuation for the company. This year especially, many stocks have overshot their Lincoln valuations and we are now starting to see some come back - such as BRG (which they de-stared as a start stock yesterday - won't meet their EPS growth requirements). It is also interesting to see some star stocks like MND which have over the past couple of years traded very close to their Lincoln valuation but both have risen fairly much lock-step each half year as it has reported and as Lincoln has increased its valuation.

On occasion there have been star stocks which have come in because they meet the metrics but for which the analyst has given prescient analysis about the inherent risks in the company that don't show through in the fundamental analysis. An example was MGX, which became a star stock but the analyst was never a fan of the management and said so in his analysis.

The mining price boom saw a lot of miners become star stocks and drop out not long after. I think this was a problem for Lincoln as the valuations they put on a lot of these companies were revised down heavily as prices fell.

Due to the rise of SMSF and the age of their clients and the flight to yield, Lincoln have now introduced preferred income stocks. These are stocks which pass Lincoln's model of financial health but which might not meet their growth metrics but instead they feel pay good sustainable yields. These include the big four banks, TLS, TGA and others.

Lincoln now also analyses and provides valuations for all the ASX20 companies as well.

A while ago they launched an online version of Stock Doctor. It has all the basic fundamental analysis for each company as well as all the basic metrics (including thompson reuters consensus forecasts), a very basic chart and all the analyst commentary. The PC version of Stock Doctor continues to have much more in depth data including historical data. The charting program in the PC version is quite good - it has almost everything you would want (no P&F charting though). I use the charting program a lot, and one thing I like about it is that there is a side panel with a summary of the fundamental data of the company being charted so you can get a good snap-shot of both the technicals and fundamentals on one screen.

There are some very rich filtering tools in the PC application. There is a fundamental filter which screens stocks based on fundamental data. There is also a technical filter which applies technical rules and you can even edit your own formulas to run in the technical filters (advanced pointy head stuff). I have been playing around with a momentum filter I have developed of late. I run a fundamental filter to give me just the stocks with a strong or satisfactory financial health rating and then run them through the technical filter to try and identify stocks with upward momentum that have reached a good entry point. Very experimental.

Another good thing about the fundamental filter is that you can create custom reports and run your own portfolio through them to come up with a spreadsheet full of fundamental data for your own portfolio or watchlists. I've just recently created one that provides me with a good overview of my income portfolio which I export to excel and which helps me forecast income.

The portfolio manager is adequate for my needs and I use it extensively to keep track of my trades and portfolios. I export the data to spreadsheet to give to the accountant for the SMSF.

Lincoln do aim to move everything into the cloud eventually and to run all the software through web services.

In launching the web based version of stock doctor, Lincoln were able to segment different membership levels. There is a basic subscription which provides access to the online data only. I have the platinum membership which allows me to call and speak with the analysts which I do from time to time. It can be very handy to clarify an analyst's thinking on a specific stock and stocks within a sector.

Most of my portfolio are Lincoln star stocks. borderline star stocks or income preferred stocks. These are the stocks that the analysts know inside out and keep on top and provide valuations and regular updates for so it makes sense to make use of their footwork.

I have stocks which are not Lincoln preferred stocks but which I like for income, or am looking for a shorter term trade in. I do, however, generally stick to stocks that have a strong or satisfactory financial health rating. Examples of income stocks in my portfolio that Lincoln do not cover are GZL, BYL, DWS.

Finally, Lincoln make a point of saying that they do not provide any technical analysis or advice on timing entry and exit. Yet, unless you are prepared to hold for the long term and switch the market off, this has been the challenge of this sideways trending secular bear market with a commodity price boom thrown in. Stocks like WEB, REA, IIN, TPM, FLT and even CCL have been Lincoln star stocks for the past few years and for a long time there they languished well below their Lincoln valuations until they took off over the past few months. So the old adage that the market can be wrong longer than you can remain solvent still applies even to Lincoln's pick of the best.

On the flip side, during the 'Taking Stock' weekly vodcasts leading up to reporting season, Lincoln has been reminding its shareholders that a lot of stocks have run up hard and well past their Lincoln valuations and that a bit of prudent profit taking going into reporting season might soften the blow of any market disappointments and free up some cash for further opportunities. This has been good advice.

Premium members also get to attend a monthly "CEO insights" webinar with CEO Elio d'Amato. I generally listen to the recording after the event. Elio seems very in tune with where his clientele are at - conservative risk takers looking to out perform the market through prudent active investing - and has been pretty good at giving macro-level analysis of events impacting on the market and where the market is going. During every webinar, Elio goes over changes and updates to Lincoln's stock universe and provides a good catch-up overview of the stocks under their analysis.

If you were to use Lincoln's stock doctor as a crude tool to just find stocks at high discounts to their Lincoln valuations and invested in them with a scatter-gun approach, you might not do so well. Yet, Lincoln maintain that by simply investing with equal weighting in all their star stocks (entering when they become a star stock and exiting when/if they become "de-starred") you will out-perform the market - which is not far from how the Lincoln share fund operates. I think, better yet, is to use the Lincoln data for fundamental analysis of companies' financial health and earnings outlooks but time entry and exit based on a broader analysis of market sentiment, share-price momentum and macro-risks.

The short answer to your question is that I still subscribe and I find it a valuable service. The price for subscription is quite reasonable for anyone managing a modest size SMSF or a decent size personal portfolio. I hope that helps.


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## Cazz42

Many thanks tinhat for your comprehensive update on Stock Doctor. It is most helpful.

I have subscribed to the Stock Doctor Essentials free trial for 2 weeks and will give consideration to the Gold or Platinum service based on your description of the support.

Cheers and thank you for your detailed reply
Cazz42


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## Julia

Tinhat, can you say what their current view of MND is?


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## tinhat

Julia said:


> Tinhat, can you say what their current view of MND is?




Hi Julia, I'll do this as a once-off for educational and demonstration purposes as I don't want to be in breach of the terms of the subscription. Lincoln have just downgraded their valuation of MND from 25.61 to 22.74. The Thompson Reuters consensus target (of sixteen analysts) is 23.50. As I don't own any MND I'm keeping it on my watch-list in case there is a deeper correction to the share price. MND is both a Lincoln star stock and income preferred stock.

For me personally, a solid performing stock that doesn't have strong growth projections needs to be yielding at least 6% before franking credits for me to consider it. MNDs earnings growth outlook for 2014 is looking the softest it has been for years and margin compression in the industry still is a risk, so I would probably have an entry target price of somewhere close to $21 which gets it closer to 7% yield.


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## Julia

Thank you, tinhat.  Sorry, I was overlooking the copyright obligations.  The info is appreciated.  This is one I regret selling some while ago.  The guidance last week doesn't make it attractive right now and the Stock Doctor comment bears this out.


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## velcronator

Are there any others that are similar to Stock Doctor?


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## dchass

tinhat said:


> Hi Cazz42
> 
> As I started thinking about a reply, the first thing I realised was just how much the company and the service has developed in the past couple of years. I've just renewed again so am now into my third year of subscription.
> 
> Over the past couple of years Lincoln have tweaked their metrics a couple of times here and there. They seem to be in the background running things through their models and they back-test any changes they make to their financial health model. So they have slightly different financial health models which they apply to banks, miners, small caps and everything else.




Hey tinhat,

I have been impressed by your posts.

Do you have any further update observations over the last two years since your last post?

Would you consider Stock Doctor is a worthwhile investment for someone who has two quite large portfolios (several million $'s, one of them an SMSF) but who is primarily set and forget using a broker, with blue chip stock and trading only say 6-10 times a year?


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## Boggo

dchass said:


> ...
> Would you consider Stock Doctor is a worthwhile investment for someone who has two quite large portfolios (several million $'s, one of them an SMSF) but who is primarily set and forget using a broker, with blue chip stock and trading only say 6-10 times a year?




I have been using it in my SMSF for many years now and firmly believe that it has paid for itself many times over.
Rather than the general method of ruling in stocks to buy, it does the opposite and actually keeps you out of those with less than average fundamental support.

I know bugger all about fundamentals, I let StockDoctor keep me away from the risky investment stocks by applying their filter to reduce the market to (currently) 456 stocks that are what they refer to as Strong and Satisfactory.
I then apply technical analysis (usually weekly charts) to those 456 stocks and so far have achieved very acceptable returns without stress or difficulty.

I have included a pic extract as an example of a basic summary analysis page of one of their stocks that my SMSF has been in and out a few times since around 2010.

(click to expand)


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## dchass

Thank you Boggo for that helpful response.
The program has superb graphics and seems to be very sophisticated. I have also viewed the videos on the Stock Doctor website.
I have a couple of questions
- I have essentially a blue chip portfolio and for someone who is not planning to do much trading, I guess its value would then be mainly in monitoring the portfolio for potential problem areas. As the cost is say $1600 pa, I am wondering if this is a worthwhile investment in that type of situation.
- I noticed in tinhat's post that he referred to Thompson Reuters Consensus forecasts. Have you found these helpful?
Many thanks


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## Boggo

dchass said:


> Thank you Boggo for that helpful response.
> The program has superb graphics and seems to be very sophisticated. I have also viewed the videos on the Stock Doctor website.
> I have a couple of questions
> - I have essentially a blue chip portfolio and for someone who is not planning to do much trading, I guess its value would then be mainly in monitoring the portfolio for potential problem areas. As the cost is say $1600 pa, I am wondering if this is a worthwhile investment in that type of situation.
> - I noticed in tinhat's post that he referred to Thompson Reuters Consensus forecasts. Have you found these helpful?
> Many thanks




Because I use tech analysis it quite often gets me ahead of the game a bit, IFM being a recent example where I got out but then after the dip got back in (about 20c less than where I exited) based on my indications which just happened ahead of an email from StockDoctor spelling out the potential advantages of their recent news and a new target valuation.

My tech analysis I think eliminates the need for taking notice of consensus reports so I don't really use that.

Without the tech analysis you will get a heads up that all may not be well and that alone can easily save you $1600.

They keep you updated sometimes three times a day with emails especially during reporting season. If you enter your holdings into their online portfolio section then you will get references to your holdings in the daily emails that could highlight any potential negative effects on your positions.

Extract from a recent email, as soon as a review is completed you get another email with the outcome.


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## tinhat

As Boggo states, the core value is that they run every ASX listed company through fundamental analysis model to provide it with a financial health rating of distress, marginal, early warning, satisfactory or strong. The interesting this is that this model shows that only 25% of ASX listed companies are satisfactory or strong according to their model and this result has been consistent over time. At its core, this is what the service is about.

The metrics they use to decide if a stock comes in as a growth star stock or a borderline growth star stock means that sometimes a stock will come in after having had a meteoric rise which has made me wonder whether I've missed out on the party. What I have noticed over the years though is that a strong growth company will often see its Lincoln valuation rise from review to review too, so although it might not seem like value according to the Lincoln valuation the price runs ahead and the Lincoln valuation catches up next reporting season. Sometimes stocks come in as a star stock, having met the criteria but at price premium to the fundamental valuation Lincoln gives to the stock.

Stock Doctor doesn't provide you with a strategy or timing. Their model picks up the occasional stock that turns out to be a disaster, such as FGE and BCI, due to events that lie outside their methodology. That said, they do provide more qualitative analysis of company outlook these days and they do provide warnings where the analyst thinks there is risk in the outlook for the company. Speaking with the analysts is very helpful.

One lesson I have learnt is that if Stock Doctor drops a stock, take it as a sell recommendation and sell it. There will be better opportunities for your money. Discipline and strategy are in the hands of the investor. I learnt this the hard way last year with BCI. I was buying after they had dropped it as a star stock in late August. What a fool I turned out to be.

It's a good service. It's worth the money. It does require a more active investment management strategy but this could be a weekly review or monthly review or reporting season review strategy. It doesn't have to be daily.


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## dchass

tinhat said:


> Stock Doctor doesn't provide you with a strategy or timing. Their model picks up the occasional stock that turns out to be a disaster, such as FGE and BCI, due to events that lie outside their methodology. That said, they do provide more qualitative analysis of company outlook these days and they do provide warnings where the analyst thinks there is risk in the outlook for the company. Speaking with the analysts is very helpful




Thank you for your considered and detailed response.

From your posts you have obviously been using Stock Doctor for several years. As a matter of interest, have you noticed whether Stock Doctor has often (or ever) issued concerns or warnings on say any top ASX 100 stocks?


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## tinhat

dchass said:


> From your posts you have obviously been using Stock Doctor for several years. As a matter of interest, have you noticed whether Stock Doctor has often (or ever) issued concerns or warnings on say any top ASX 100 stocks?




Well, in a sense that is what the financial health model which is at the core of their service does. For example, MQG has had an "early warning" health rating (which places it one step below investment grade) in Stock Doctor since September 2008. They crunch the numbers on every ASX listed stock each reporting season and run it through their model. 

If I remember correctly, they use to rely on consensus data for forecast earnings and profits which meant that there would be stocks that were technically star stocks that they felt had high downside risk in their outlook. One example was Iluka. It was a star stock a few years ago but when I spoke with the analyst at the time he raised warnings. These days they provide their own forecasts for star stocks, but at the end of the day, they are relying on the guidance the company provides them for forecasts.

Profit warnings and other downgrades in forecasts get dealt with promptly and if the stock doesn't look like it is going to continue to meet star stock criteria in the future they drop it fairly quickly these days. FLT was one example, they removed it as a start stock last month based on the downgraded guidance given during the AGM. Another is CCL which they threw out as a borderline star stock in May 2013 when they gave a downgraded outlook at their AGM. 

They advocate a diversified holding of their star stocks to mitigate against unforeseen disappointments such as FGE or MCE which were both star stocks that crashed.


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## dchass

tinhat said:


> Another is CCL which they threw out as a borderline star stock in May 2013 when they gave a downgraded outlook at their AGM.




That's interesting. My broker recommended buying CCL in Aug 2013, which I did after they had fallen, but they fell a long way from there over the following 6 months. Perhaps that is a good example for me of one of the benefits of Stock Doctor.

There again, CCL is starting to regain momentum again, and as many say about blue chip stocks, perhaps it's not about timing the market as much as time in the market!


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## So_Cynical

$1600 for a 12 month subscription...that's a sizable chunk of money.

Cant help but think that if one could afford to pay 1600 annually for this service then you already have money and probably don't need help getting more.


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## dchass

So_Cynical said:


> $1600 for a 12 month subscription...that's a sizable chunk of money.
> 
> Cant help but think that if one could afford to pay 1600 annually for this service then you already have money and probably don't need help getting more.




On the other hand, my paper loss from the CCL purchase was $7,000 in one transaction, which potentially makes Stock Doctor pretty cheap


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## So_Cynical

dchass said:


> On the other hand, my paper loss from the CCL purchase was $7,000 in one transaction, which potentially makes Stock Doctor pretty cheap




7K loss, so a 50K approx trade? what can i say, that's a third of my entire portfolio.

On the subject of CCL, i have 2 parcels, 10.97 and 9.07 - in profit this week for the first time.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1280&page=6&p=818892&viewfull=1#post818892


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## Boggo

So_Cynical said:


> $1600 for a 12 month subscription...that's a sizable chunk of money.
> 
> Cant help but think that if one could afford to pay 1600 annually for this service then you already have money and probably don't need help getting more.




I look at it as cheap insurance for my SMSF, there hasn't been a year yet when it has not paid for itself.


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## dchass

Boggo said:


> I look at it as cheap insurance for my SMSF, there hasn't been a year yet when it has not paid for itself.




Yes, this seems to be a good summary assessment of Stock Doctor's benefits.

I am not a user yet but am currently attempting to study the usefulness of the program for my purposes, by evaluating the 14 day trial. It appears that Roger Montgomery's Skaffold is an alternative and Skaffold has it's own thread on this forum which I have perused. As a matter of interest, is anyone aware of a detailed comparative analysis between Stock Doctor and Skaffold?


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## brianwh

Have found this thread very interesting. I currently am using their free trial and while I am seeing plenty to like, I have two main problems. Firstly, I imagine most people will come to Stock Doctor with an existing portfolio with little or no spare cash to add to holdings. Thus to adapt an existing portfolio to one based on Stock Doctor recommendations will require a major reshuffle - moving some stocks in and selling others. Not everyone would see this necessarily as a bad thing but I'm not sure I'm up for such a move. This is particularly the case since I can't see the track record of their recommendations to get an idea of how successful they are in identifying better performing stocks. Secondly, many of their recommendations are fully (or over) valued suggesting that much of the gains have already been made.

I have been running a moderately successful equities portfolio as part of my SMSF for some years but have come to the conclusion that I don't have the resources (particularly time) to adequately analyse 15-20 stocks on an ongoing basis so if Stock Doctor (or similar) could do at least some of the work for me, and perhaps better than me, it might be worth the money.


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## Funda-Struck

Yo.

Considering a subscription to SD, was gonna ask them a question but thought I might try here first from Stock Doctor users...

Which valuation method is used by stock doctor, is it Discounted Cash flow?
If so, do they allow you to see the cash flow assumptions and discount rate they have used to come up with their figures, and can you throw in your own figures to adjust to your own liking??

Cheers!


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## ThirtysixD

Seems like an expensive way to get a robo-advisor?

With an account of 100k it would be the same as paying 1.5% in fees.


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## So_Cynical

ThirtysixD said:


> Seems like an expensive way to get a robo-advisor?
> 
> With an account of 100k it would be the same as paying 1.5% in fees.




For a portfolio of 500K it might seem reasonable, but then it's 500K that usually hasn't just appeared from nowhere, once people have money they seem to be prepared to part with some of it in some strange wealth preservation/expansion exercise.


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## lauriejay

Trying the 10 day membership now too.
Hopefully it bears some fruit.
The yearly subscription seems steep for someone who's new to trading.


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## tippergreen

lauriejay said:


> Trying the 10 day membership now too.
> Hopefully it bears some fruit.
> The yearly subscription seems steep for someone who's new to trading.





Well, after paying $1500 for the annual subscription and sticking with purely star stocks, I've lost 8% of my life savings, wasted $1500 on this meme service, and missed out on a guaranteed 4% I would have made if I'd just left my money in an online high-interest savings account. The only reason I didn't make even heavier losses is because I sold out of a couple of positions early. How the overall market can be positive or flat with my entire portfolio plummeting just baffles me; considering these securities are apparently a result of sound fundamentals analysis. Perhaps I'm just really, really unlucky. But this will be my one and final foray into the securities market; my SD subscription is up in 8 days and I can't think of a rational reason to renew it.


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## Wysiwyg

tippergreen said:


> How the overall market can be positive or flat with my entire portfolio plummeting just baffles me; considering these securities are apparently a result of sound fundamentals analysis. Perhaps I'm just really, really unlucky.



The All. Ords. last peaked in April 2015 and many stocks have been stuck in a long term sickly range so you could be buying at the top of a market up swing. It would be interesting to know when the star stocks are announced, like at the top of an upswing or at apparent under value. Everyone's portfolio goes underwater at some stage.


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## So_Cynical

tippergreen said:


> How the overall market can be positive or flat with my entire portfolio plummeting just baffles me; considering these securities are apparently a result of sound fundamentals analysis. Perhaps I'm just really, really unlucky.




Fair to say you haven't been lucky so lets go with unlucky  super bad timing for star type stocks, 12 months ago they were very popular as bond/income proxy's, now not so...timing is really very very important, December last year was a great entry for many stocks (Mining - Coal - Oil - Gold) the type of stocks that dont get stars.


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## tinhat

tippergreen said:


> I've lost 8% of my life savings, wasted $1500 on this meme service, and missed out on a guaranteed 4% I would have made if I'd just left my money in an online high-interest savings account.
> View attachment 69040




If you owned an investment property, say an apartment in Sydney or Melbourne and the going price of similar apartments fell by 8% in one year would you sell? Investing in stocks is not for everyone. Very few people who stick with share investing would set a stop-loss at 8%. Many long term investors are sitting on dividend yields that exceed 8%. I don't even look at the market price of the CBA shares sitting in my portfolio. Why do I care what the market price is?

A lot of the Lincoln star growth stocks are mid-caps which are coming off some amazing runs post-GST, for example TPM, VOC. They don't pick or forecast sector or market cycles. They are bottom up. Some of their start stocks remain unloved for years before the market catches on, for example Iinet and TPG. Some don't live up to the promise and crash and burn. That's the risk of investing in the stock market.

I use their service. I use the fundamental analysis. I pay attention to their start stocks and their analysis. I make use of their analysts for insights. At its core, their fundamental analysis model consistently identifies about 25% of all listed stocks as investment grade on a bottom up basis. From that universe they then run these companies through another model of analysis which essentially screens for growth potential (and more recently, in the case of their income stocks, for sustainable dividend yields at or above market average yield).

Their stock doctor system is a great way to research companies too. If mention of a company peaks my interest I can go to Stock Doctor and look through years and years of the historical data for key financial measures all tabulated.

Of course they seek to outperform the market but there will be times when they underperform the market as their bottom up fundamental analysis results in mix of large, mid and small caps making up their star stocks in comparison to the composition and weighting of the major indices.


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## systematic

If this was the Beginner's forum my reply would be much kinder.  But it's not, so here are my observations...



tippergreen said:


> Well, after paying $1500 for the annual subscription and sticking with purely star stocks, I've lost 8% of my life savings, wasted $1500 on this meme service, and missed out on a guaranteed 4% I would have made if I'd just left my money in an online high-interest savings account.




- You've been at it for 16 months.  So you have the patience of a child (or a typical investor).

- You're comparing a loss in equities over 16 months to what you could have made in fixed-interest over that time period.  If you've ever even looked at something like an All Ords chart or whatever, you'd be well aware that the market fluctuates and doesn't dish out a fixed-rate.  Say, what?




tippergreen said:


> The only reason I didn't make even heavier losses is because I sold out of a couple of positions early.




...You're unable to stick to a system.  Selling positions early could hurt you on another occasion.




tippergreen said:


> How the overall market can be positive or flat with my entire portfolio *plummeting *just baffles me;




...Plummeting?  Are you serious?  My portfolio (admittedly no doubt more volatile than many would be happy to invest in) could (and does) fluctuate that amount in a day!  Often in seemingly the opposite direction to whatever the market is doing (_not quite correct, but that's how it often feels_)




tippergreen said:


> Perhaps I'm just really, really unlucky.




...You really haven't looked at a basic chart of the All Ords, have you?  It's not that you're really, really unlucky.  You may or may not be invested in a good system (I have no idea re: stock doctor) to begin with - but it doesn't really matter.  You could be given a 'winning system' and it wouldn't make a difference.  You'd still lose and claim bad luck.  A good investment strategy will try the patience of a saint.




tippergreen said:


> But this will be my one and final foray into the securities market




...It may well be, and might be a good thing in your case!  One positive is that you are admitting you can't handle it, and that's a _good_ thing.  You _should_ be able to sleep at night, and honestly - if only fixed-interest will do that for you, that's fine.  Better than losing money in the market through bad decisions.  Knowing yourself, is half the battle in investing.  I'm serious about this.  My brother, despite me explaining much over the years, has only ever made one stock trade in his life - when someone might have put him onto something (I worked in the mining industry back then) and it turned out a ten-bagger.  He lives really well, has a very good career and productive life - and only invests in fixed-interest (to my knowledge, that hasn't changed).  If I mull over it, I can despair about how well he could do / could have done considering his starting capital was waaay better than mine.  But, he sleeps at night and has a great life - who could complain?
Just a story to share that I'm not actually having a go.  We're all different, and knowing who you are in investing is, as I said, half the battle.  If you do know who you are (like my brother) - that's a good thing.  But know that you _will_ be (just like my brother - who could probably have added a zero to his wealth by now) missing out on opportunity.  It's up to you whether that's okay.



tippergreen said:


> I can't think of a rational reason to renew it.




...Me neither!  For two reasons.  1) All of the above, and 2) You are obviously not comfortable that this Stock Doctor system is a winning one to begin with (by the sound of it).

All the best with whatever way you go in the future.


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## tippergreen

So_Cynical said:


> Fair to say you haven't been lucky so lets go with unlucky  super bad timing for star type stocks, 12 months ago they were very popular as bond/income proxy's, now not so...timing is really very very important, December last year was a great entry for many stocks (Mining - Coal - Oil - Gold) the type of stocks that dont get stars.




Timing seems to be at the core of my problems. I lost count of the amount of times I would buy into a gold/green star stock and within 1 week it suddenly falls off a cliff and loses10-50% of it's value for "no particular reason". Compounding this frustration was the fact that often the stock doctor analysts weren't able to tell me why this happened and the stock retained it's rating. And to make matters worst when I decided to apply a stop loss, the next day the stock magically bounces back 15% or more, again for no particular reason. This happened constantly, and seemingly with no logic, reasoning and against the tech. analysis. I made so many poor entry/exit timing decisions that it was basically a travesty by the end. And after going into the red another $1500 on the final day of my ill-fated trading experiment, I got online the next morning, sold everything, and by the afternoon the stocks of course had made a sudden and incredibly powerful recovery. For no particular reason.

I tried securities for a year, after researching it for two, and my conclusion is that the only people making money in this game are insiders and those in the financial markets. For the rest of us, even with the likes of Stock Doctor, you're basically reading tea leaves. I'm sure the average punter armed as well as I was probably wouldn't do quite as badly, but there you go.


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## McLovin

tippergreen said:


> Timing seems to be at the core of my problems. I lost count of the amount of times I would buy into a gold/green star stock and within 1 week* it suddenly falls off a cliff and loses10-50% of it's value for "no particular reason"*. Compounding this frustration was the fact that often the stock doctor analysts weren't able to tell me why this happened and the stock retained it's rating. *And to make matters worst when I decided to apply a stop loss, the next day the stock magically bounces back 15% or more, again for no particular reason.* This happened constantly, and seemingly with no logic, reasoning and against the tech. analysis. *I made so many poor entry/exit timing decisions that it was basically a travesty by the end. *And after going into the red another $1500 on the final day of my ill-fated trading experiment, I got online the next morning, sold everything, and by the afternoon the stocks of course had made a sudden and incredibly powerful recovery. For no particular reason.
> 
> I tried securities for a year, after researching it for two, and my conclusion is that the only people making money in this game are insiders and those in the financial markets. For the rest of us, even with the likes of Stock Doctor, you're basically reading tea leaves. I'm sure the average punter armed as well as I was probably wouldn't do quite as badly, but there you go.




I think the core of your problem is using business performance to enter a stock but using price performance to exit. You've got to pick one or the other. As you observed, stock prices will move 10%-15% for no particular reason and using a stop loss without any other technical analysis seems doomed to failure.


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## pblain

I’ve been using Stock Doctor for a few years.  I find it useful in three ways:

Identify stocks that, after more research, I might buy  
Analysts reports on covered stocks

Quick at-a-glance view of financial health
I do my own research and I don’t make buy/sell decisions purely on the basis of Stock Doctor - but it’s always important to get a second opinion.  

I’ve also tried similar offerings such as Team Invest’s CI and Skaffold (which originated from Roger Montgomery). Stock Doctor compares well.  For the record, I really like CI, but it’s way more expensive.

I would also note that Stock Doctor is best suited to long term fundamental investors.  It doesn’t predict short term swings in price - nothing does.


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## stevo2

WaySolid said:


> Does anybody have any feedback on Stock Doctor?
> 
> I think the $50 trial for one month (refundable off the purchase price if you buy) is a tempting choice as the software looks excellent from the demo's I have seen.
> 
> WaySolid




I have used Stock Doctor for a couple of years and am about to renew subscription.

There are millions of pieces of data there which I don’t use or pretend to understand.

The way I use it is to take their rankings, Star – Satisfactory – Marginal and use these to create my universe of eligible stocks.  The ranking also affects my position sizing; Star ranked stocks can have a larger position size than Marginal

Their ranking of Early Warning or Distress probably keeps me out of a couple of dud trades per year.

Then I apply fairly simple trend following techniques for entry and exit using weekly charts.

Its probably not much help if you want to trade short term.

Works for me, might not work for you

Cheers Ian


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## samved

Good day everyone,
I am new to share market investment and have been interested to sign up with Stock Doctor.
Could anyone please provide advise on what sort of technical filter you apply for the selection of stocks?
Thanks


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## tinhat

samved said:


> Good day everyone,
> I am new to share market investment and have been interested to sign up with Stock Doctor.
> Could anyone please provide advise on what sort of technical filter you apply for the selection of stocks?
> Thanks




Hi samved, sorry it's taken me so long to reply 

I'm still using the "original PC" version of stock doctor and have not installed the stand alone charing application for PC, but I assume that the charting application in the original PC version is the same as that in the stand alone PC version currently available. I haven't started using the technical filters of the web based version of Stock Doctor yet, so I don't know if the below can be translated over into the web application and/or whether this can be done in the current stand-alone charting software.

Here is a technical filter I run from time to time. It is basically a very crude upward momentum scan which scans for bullish MACD and filters for a multiple moving average upward price trend (along similar lines to the Guppy multiple moving averages charting technique and similar).

MACD:=EMA(CLOSE,Short) - EMA(CLOSE,Long);
Signal:=EMA(MACD,Sig);

MACD > Signal & 
MACD > 0 & 
WMA(CLOSE,8) > WMA(CLOSE,13) & 
WMA(CLOSE,13) > WMA(CLOSE,15) & 
WMA(CLOSE,15) > WMA(CLOSE,34) & 
WMA(CLOSE,34) > WMA(CLOSE,55) & 
WMA(CLOSE,55) > WMA(CLOSE,150) &
WMA(CLOSE,150) > WMA(CLOSE,200);​
I set the following parameters:
Long = 65
Short = 15
Signal = 35

Here is how I use it. From time to time, I run a filter that creates a watchlist for all companies currently with a "strong" or "satisfactory" financial health score. I then run the above filter on that watchlist to give me a short list of stocks in uptrend. The parameters are set-up to use against the daily price and because I generally analys the market from a weekly perspective, I set the filter to search through the last five day's data. I then eye-ball the charts of those companies thrown up by the scan. I generally refer to weekly price charts and then if there is chart that looks interesting, I will look at daily and monthly charts and then, if still interested short list the company to look into the fundamentals on the stock doctor website.

I've been reluctant to post that code because I really threw it together one weekend years ago, don't use that often, and I can't remember why I chose those MACD parameters (65,15,35) and whether a knowledgeable technical analyst would consider them suitable. Also, as mentioned above, I'm still using the old PC based version for this and don't know how it translates into the web based app and/or the stand alone charting software.

It's crude but it works in filtering stocks with upward momentum. Below are the results from running the fiter today:

Code
ABA
ABC
ALU
AMI
ANN
AOF
APD
APO
APX
AQG
AQZ
ARB
ASX
BPT
BWP
BWR
CAR
CCL
CDA
CHC
CMW
CPU
CQR
CSL
CTD
CVC
CWN
CWY
CYB
DXS
EGG
EHL
EQT
EZL
FPH
GDF
GDI
GMG
GOZ
GRB
GTY
GUD
HIT
IAG
IDR
IDX
IEL
IFM
IFT
IGO
IOF
JIN
KMD
LEP
LIC
MAI
MAQ
MGX
MQG
MRN
MWY
MYE
NAN
NBL
NEC
NGI
NHC
NSR
NST
OCA
OCL
OMH
ORA
ORG
OSH
PLG
PMV
PWH
REA
RHP
RMD
RRL
RSG
SCG
SCP
SDA
SDF
SDG
SHL
SKC
SMR
SNZ
SOL
SRH
SRX
SSL
SUN
UNV
VGL
WES
WHC
WOW
WPL
WTC
ZEN


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## samved

Tinhat, 
thanks for the detail response. 

In your response I only confused with your following parameter settings.
'_I set the following parameters:
Long = 65
Short = 15
Signal = 35_'

On stock doctor, study for MACD parameter requirements are 'Fast MA Period, Slow MA Period and Signal period'. To match with your explanation, it looks like your Long parameter sets to SD's Fast MA Period and your Short parameter sets to SD's Slow MA Period. With this assumption, I set the study for MACD to MACD(15,65,35) which signifies 15 as fast MA period, 65 as Slow MA period and 35 as Signal period. Please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks!!


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## tinhat

samved said:


> Tinhat,
> thanks for the detail response.
> 
> In your response I only confused with your following parameter settings.
> '_I set the following parameters:
> Long = 65
> Short = 15
> Signal = 35_'
> 
> On stock doctor, study for MACD parameter requirements are 'Fast MA Period, Slow MA Period and Signal period'. To match with your explanation, it looks like your Long parameter sets to SD's Fast MA Period and your Short parameter sets to SD's Slow MA Period. With this assumption, I set the study for MACD to MACD(15,65,35) which signifies 15 as fast MA period, 65 as Slow MA period and 35 as Signal period. Please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks!!




Hi, yeah, that sounds right. My technical analysis skills are non-existent but I recall that what I wanted to do was apply a MACD filter to the daily data but with the parameters adjusted to resemble what it would look like applied to weekly prices, if that makes sense. I actually got the basics of this momentum scan from another stock doctor user on their investor network discussion board.

I suspect that Lincoln doesn't offer an equivalent to the technical filter functionality that is in the old desktop PC software which I don't think is available from them any more. This is one of the reasons I haven't swapped over to the new stand alone charting program and don't use all the online analysis features. I like the old technical analysis filter which you can write you own code for. An alternative would be to use something like amibroker for technical analysis scans.

The chart below is a proxy for the technical filter:




You can see why WPL comes up in the scan results: each MA is higher the next longer MA and the MACD signal is currently positive.


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## Linus van Pelt

For those who have used Lincoln Stock Doctor:  although it's not strictly an educational product, would you say that Stock Doctor has made you a smarter investor overall?  Say by reviewing how they analyse a stock, videos or podcasts available to members, ability to chat with analysts, etc, etc?


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## Country Lad

I joined a local SD group just for fun about 17 years or more ago. I had many disagreements with the local SD guru and the group became more interested in my methods and how charting worked to the point the guru challenged me to see who would have the best results over a month.  After a couple of weeks of being well ahead, I left and quite few of the group wanted me to start a separate group on technical analysis. 

I have not looked at SD since so possibly it may be to my liking a bit more now if the analysis has improved substantially.


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## noguru

sichy said:


> Thanks Tinhat! Very concise and enjoyable read. Thanks for taking the time to write such a detailed review.



Good analysis as I am thinking of joining, undergoing a trial. It certainly looks comprehensive and offers much more than others I use/have looked at. Morningstar has been my staple for many years and it provides comprehensive and detailed coverage of the main stocks on the ASX but omits some that I would have thought they should cover. Their fair value valuations are conservative and have always been my guide. Stock Doctor offers a lot more but is expensive. I am still evaluating.


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