# PEN - Peninsula Energy



## dingos

does anyone know whats going on with these guys, good looking projects in south australia, wa, fiji, and most importantly South africa uranium, massive volumes yesterday but a subdued looking chart, pretty samll cap too 500million shares at 3.8c ~20mill


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## marc1

*Re: PEN-peninsula minerals*

They were mentioned in the fin review in April 06 in an article re one of the top five micro caps with strong prospects. Big move today in price and volume. Might be caught up in uranium hype re South African exploration projects. Hope so, I have a small holding! No other info.  Regards Marc1.
Vol 73 Mil today, Price 0.044


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## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

pen / After hours news release 4.39p.m. on 27/11/06.
Uranium / molybdenum prospecting rights granted in south africa.
up 11% in yesterdays trade.


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## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

need to hold above 0.05 for a good run, imo.


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				ezyTrader said:
			
		

> need to hold above 0.05 for a good run, imo.




Any close at or above 4.7c will maintain the uptrend and is a break into all time highs.

5.1 is all time high intraday, broken today.


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## ironchef

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

These guys get very good trading volumes per week. And they've been making some good moves as a company (have a look at thier last 2 months worth of announcements)


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

those currently buying PEN please feel free to continue. :


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## Rafa

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> those currently buying PEN please feel free to continue. :




please explain


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thought that was obvious I hold it.

Just being my normal sarcastic self.

Duck with attitude!!


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## Rafa

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Oh ok...
I thought it was one of those subtle warnings to stay away from it! 
hehe


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This chart is looking very nice.


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> This chart is looking very nice.




Nicer today 

I cant believe you and I are the only ones trading this?


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Nicer today
> 
> I cant believe you and I are the only ones trading this?




Yeh i know. The run is far from over with this one i feel.

Tech, when u have time, im keen to hear your thoughts on FML, another one im trading.


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Tech/A

How did you spot the breakout at 5.5c, with which tool or were you just scanning with the eyes... does the asx monitor tool catalyst started developing have the feature or is it more expensive to like marketcast...


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## ironchef

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I hold this too! They're recent uranium prospect post was awsome. 

They have a huge volume of trading per day for a company of thier size

I'm hoping they are the type of company that will hit above the 50 cent mark by mid next year... fingers crossed.


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> Tech/A
> 
> How did you spot the breakout at 5.5c, with which tool or were you just scanning with the eyes... does the asx monitor tool catalyst started developing have the feature or is it more expensive to like marketcast...




Break of 4.7c was significant, break of all time highs.
Volume scans wouldve picked up the previous days and put it on the radar.
Thats how it worked for me.

Yesterday AM is was dead 280k volume after half an hour. Couldve took a position at 4.6, stop 4.2. If it broke i would get the upside. But how long until it broke?

Checked again before close it was 5c+ and volume was there. Clearly a signal to jump in. I did.

Well thats how it worked for me.

Like tech said, i couldve anticipated a breakout and took half a position before the breakout and then the other half on confirmation.

Tech's got heaps of expensive tools probably made it alot easier for him


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Tek This is a one minute chart showing my 2 buy points.
Iron bloody hell I hope your right---doubt I'll hold it that long.
Nizar Ill have a look.



> Tech's got heaps of expensive tools probably made it alot easier for him



$2000 a year is not expensive. Seriously If you were a Carpenter would you buy crap gear??


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## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Yeh i know. The run is far from over with this one i feel.
> 
> i hope your right nizar . did you notice the interest go up betwwen 11.30 to 12.00pm this morning. same thing happened yesterday . head office in perth , maybe western aust buyers 3hrs behind east coast . do they know something we dont????
> 
> cheers


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



> Volume scans wouldve picked up the previous days and put it on the radar.
> Thats how it worked for me.
> 
> Yesterday AM is was dead 280k volume after half an hour. Couldve took a position at 4.6, stop 4.2. If it broke i would get the upside. But how long until it broke?




Nizar,

What software do you use to perform such a volume scan. And what parameters do you look for in volume? ie daily vol vs average daily for the past 5? 20? 50? days, or percentage increase on yesterdays? etc.

thanks


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks Nizar for that detailed reply...see I aska basic questions, so still plenty to learn 4 me...


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> What software do you use to perform such a volume scan. And what parameters do you look for in volum? ie daily vol vs average daily for the past 5? 20? 50? days, etc.
> 
> thanks




ASX website and/or people posting in the breakout thread. I think it was actually tech riding this last week and he posted it (when it was around 3.5-4c). It wasnt a breakout* then though. But that got it on my radar. It wasnt a breakout*, BUT the volumes were encouraging and 4.7 (the all time high was in sight).

(*sorry it meant it wasnt a firm entry criteria for the system im trading. Kennas is correct, its a clear breakout)

I look at the last few days volume but also the longer term volumes. The latter is like ~5mil/day. Breakouts, well the best of them, come with a VERY OBVIOUS increase in volume. Look at AUZ, AIM, DYL, etc etc when they first broke out.

So yeh, my tools are VERY primitive, really not ideal for short-term trading.


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## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

The first breakout was actually at $0.032/3 ish. On big volume. 

The rest is as indicated. 

Missed it.   

Watching too many things...


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## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I probably got this link from somewhere in the forum.

http://clients.weblink.com.au/clients/equitiesinfo/

Lists all 52-week highs and lows (20 minutes delayed, I believe). Guess this is how to get the stats every 20 minutes.

SevenFX/toc_bat,
If you have IC (incredibleCharts), you could do a scan for increased volume(%,quantity) to locate potentials, plus others. It's actually quite a nifty application.


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

A Q for the experinced ones,

Say you came accross PEN today, like me. On what basis do you decide to get in or not? Wait till end of day? Or watch it like a hawk and get in if it starts to bolt? probobly both, no.

I was considering this at 5,8c but thought it didnt have much more left in it. How wrong. but now im thinking the same at 6,3.

bye all


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## Raging Bull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> A Q for the experinced ones,
> 
> Say you came accross PEN today, like me. On what basis do you decide to get in or not? Wait till end of day? Or watch it like a hawk and get in if it starts to bolt? probobly both, no.
> 
> I was considering this at 5,8c but thought it didnt have much more left in it. How wrong. but now im thinking the same at 6,3.
> 
> bye all




Toc,

I sooo feel the same way!!


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> A Q for the experinced ones,
> 
> I was considering this at 5,8c but thought it didnt have much more left in it.
> 
> How wrong. but now im thinking the same at 6,3.




I'm not so experienced, but 5.8 could of being that magical .618 fib ratio, hence being a stronger rally back up...????

5.8 was also a low on the rsi, and macd, but these are all just lagging indicators.


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

The safest way if a stock pulls away from you is to buy in smaller parcels as it breaks out from pockets of consolidation.This is hard to do if you dont have the gear.
BUT best to do ease in and if it does reverse quickly then it wont hurt as much.
Stocks dont generally rise more than 30% in a single day and are undr great stress to continue performing.
I personally have more congidence buying into a stock which has had a long consolidation and a steady rise.
PEN has not shown as yet a great deal of volatility and steady rising---a good sign for continuation----but that can change.

Here is a 1 min chart showing those breakouts that could have been bought.
If it was me I would just add at each point. You can then treat each buy or combination of buys as a singular trade.

Hope this helps.


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> I'm not so experienced, but 5.8 could of being that magical .618 fib ratio, hence being a stronger rally back up...????
> 
> 5.8 was also a low on the rsi, and macd, but these are all just lagging indicators.




thanks tekmann, 

beleive me, everyone here is more experienced than me. im rank beginner.

atm i think ive missed this one, wil watch it for the rest of the day to see close, maybe i can paper trade it. ive got badly stung in the last few trades by rushing in at the top, thinking it was middle, only to end up loosing on what would have been a super trade if only i was 3 days, even 1 day, sooner.


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> thanks tekmann,
> 
> beleive me, everyone here is more experienced than me. im rank beginner.
> 
> atm i think ive missed this one, wil watch it for the rest of the day to see close, maybe i can paper trade it. ive got badly stung in the last few trades by rushing in at the top, thinking it was middle, only to end up loosing on what would have been a super trade if only i was 3 days, even 1 day, sooner.




Make sure you use stops.
The key to successful trading (not that i classify myself as successful) is to only lose a little bit of money when you are wrong. Because you will be wrong often.

Look for volume breakouts. DYL, AUZ, AIM, etc all ran for several days. You could miss the first part of the move and still catch a major part of it, or some part of it.

But you must evaluate your psychology and trading style. Can you handle to make several losses but then you catch the big R-multiple move? Overall profitable but it means you will be wrong often. If being wrong alot on the same stock will make you hesitate on re-entry, then this type of entry is not for you.

ALternatively - Maybe use wider stops. You'll be "right" more often but no big wins but as long as its bigger than average loss and win% is greater than 50% (possible in short-term moves), its overall profitable. But make sure the stop means something ie. indicates a change in trend, whether that be the intraday trend, or daily, depending on your trading timeframe.

Daily is better. Most big moves take several days to play out if you want the big wins.

Just my opinion of course.


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

*wow nizar i appareciate your reply,*

but what about AEX, im looking at that since was it yesterday when tech mentioned it, looks like it has made move, first big vo,ume day for a while, strong up in price all day, would you go in that one for tomorow? just on the basis of price volume alone

also if Pen was to finish at 6,2-6,5 mark, would that be an indicator for you to hold? or buy? or would you wait and see in the morning to possibly avoid a sell off?

must reboot, pc is all over the sohw, maaan


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

What Nizar said is All Good,

Also add, that there *ALWAYS* another great trade tommorow, or the day after, *IF* you still have capital/trading left and haven't blown it.

Takes the urgency out of today, and tommorow a be another trade, only you will be the wiser.

Also trade for experience, not for profit initially...till your trades tell you otherwise.

EDIT: perhaps only research 1 (2max stocks) and get to know them well, b4 trading them, and don't get drawn away by other stocks flying through the roof as tempting as they seem.

SevenFX.


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

so purely on price and vol, which would you go for tek? PEN, AEX, INL

or all 3?

i think ill paper trade them all, 

now wheres that pesky pencil rolled off to .....


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

tech/a

thanks for your charting and insights and experience, much appreciated

so will you hold PEN? or is that a decision you make just prior to close, unless of course it started to collapse now


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> so purely on price and vol, which would you go for tek? PEN, AEX, INL
> 
> or all 3?
> 
> i think ill paper trade them all,
> 
> now wheres that pesky pencil rolled off to .....




I don't make recomendations because I'm 1st year apprentice here, and also strongly feel, each person should make those decissions on where the price action is.

This is all part of the art of trading, learning to find where the action/money is.

I prob asked the same q.'s and got few opinions which led to losses, but don't blame anyone but myself for any profits or loses.

SevenFX


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

out at .062 looking for pullback may re enter before close--may not.


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Update.


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

tech/a

by pullback you mean a bullish rise towards the end? to signal a resurgance in buying, which would indicate that the trend ought to continue tomorrow as well?


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> out at .062 looking for pullback may re enter before close--may not.




Me too at 0.059.
Came back from the gym its at 6.1, then 6.0, then im gone.

Tech 6.5c isnt an obvious resistance point, otherwise im sure you wouldve done a WMT job and exited at 6.5c


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

A pullback is whats happening now what Im looking for is how deep it falls and how well its bought back up toward the close---can tell a lot re tommorow.

The day traders are selling out now---what I want to see is if there is an abundance of new buyers willing to bid the stock back up.


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

not moving past .059


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yeh pretty average bought 1/2 a normal parcel at .058.
seems to have held the critical level.


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Strong battle going on between B's N B's, strangely enough same with MLS.


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## noobs

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Tech/a what size parcels do you normally trade?

$5000 - $10000


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				noobs said:
			
		

> Tech/a what size parcels do you normally trade?
> 
> $5000 - $10000




Noobs,

Most don't ask what $value parcels each other buys on forums, from what I gather, and the strategy is more important than the $value each one buys..

EDIT: Your risk management/money management should govern the size, instead of the direction & speed the share is going.


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks tech/a.

I ended up getting a bit of INL, i think the chart looks good plus their fundamentals are good for a longer term trade, basically i wont be in a position to trade every day pretty soon, gotta settle on some longer term holds.

Thanks for all the help everyone.


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> Strong battle going on between B's N B's, strangely enough same with MLS.




B's N B's ???


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## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> B's N B's ???




Bulls & Bears.


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## mildew79

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

not much happenin really.....

hopefully a few buyers towards close


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I been away for the last 3 or so hours and things have turned... damn,

still a snatch at this price


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

what happened today guys?


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## Wilson!

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It was all bad today for most of the ones i like...


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Sold the other 1/2 parcel at 56c today No support.Copped a small loss.


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## clowboy

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Sold the other 1/2 parcel at 56c today No support.Copped a small loss.




Tech,

Hardly a small loss at 56c


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hahaha I wish ----------- .056c
Pologies.


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

expect it to reach new levels today


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

increased my holding today due to director annoucnment


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

i noticed something this morning,

there were 800,000 selling at .051 now its down to 150k with buyers adding to .052


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## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> i noticed something this morning,
> 
> there were 800,000 selling at .051 now its down to 150k with buyers adding to .052



Maltesebull noticed the same thing yesterday on the sell side on 2 occasions 
4.5ml appeared, placed just above market and then removed with no change to volume or price ????? yesterdays total vol was 9,ml only.
this may be a common practice. if so could anyone please explain!!!!
cheers


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

As suspected support found at .049, next stage of the upward move should take it to .08 or more based on previous leg.


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN	0.058	0.059	0.059	+0.005	0.055	0.059	0.054	7,514,714

testing new record highs today

graph looks promising


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

these guys seem to have some good prospects, but from what i can tell they are in a very early stage. does anyone know if they are drilling yet or when we can expect some news on results


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				KIWIKARLOS said:
			
		

> these guys seem to have some good prospects, but from what i can tell they are in a very early stage. does anyone know if they are drilling yet or when we can expect some news on results



read the announcement regarding their grants


should see it hit 6cps


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

yeah i read that they had been given the grants, but am i wrong in thinking it could take a few months to get results back from whats actually in the ground?

Seems to be dying down this afternoon.


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## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> read the announcement regarding their grants
> 
> 
> should see it hit 6cps



You just got your 6cps maltesebull


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

On big volume confirming the trend upwards.


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

just bought in at 6c hoping this trend continues for the rest of the week. It would be even better if an ann came out 2


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN looking to continue its solid performance today

nice looking buyer depth pre-open


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## Bullion

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Nice guess Maltese


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

hopefully volumes pick up and it smashes through 6 c on toward 7 c :


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

down in early morning trading but no need to panic, it has been moving in line with the general market for a while now, which is a good sign


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				austcomp said:
			
		

> down in early morning trading but no need to panic, it has been moving in line with the general market for a while now, which is a good sign





what i noticed with this stock, like yesterday it opens very low and finishes on a high

pullback ......... spikes


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

yeah i got in at .06 yesterday i was surprised with the pullback this morning. hope your right M bull. 

This stock is still in early days i feel, reakon i might end up holding for a couple months, but ill see how things pan out.


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				KIWIKARLOS said:
			
		

> yeah i got in at .06 yesterday i was surprised with the pullback this morning. hope your right M bull.
> 
> This stock is still in early days i feel, reakon i might end up holding for a couple months, but ill see how things pan out.




if you look at the graph there has been a cycle


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

down to 5.6 then up to 6.1 , i hope it gets some legs and busts through the 6.1. looks to be a few buyers accumulating


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## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				KIWIKARLOS said:
			
		

> down to 5.6 then up to 6.1 , i hope it gets some legs and busts through the 6.1. looks to be a few buyers accumulating



Yeh good sigh kiwi , sub 0.06 mopped up very promptly this morning.
I think maltese was talking about the intra day behaviour of pen on the
previous post.
cheers


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

with the red and blue line on the chart, do they represent sellers vs buyers and the further apart they are red on top of blue is better?


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

good call Maltese Bull, stock is running


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## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

We have a potential double top.

However a break through will be an important developement.

Patients.


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

is exactly the same situation as the .05 point in the previous upward leg, confirmation in the upwards trend can be found when the downward leg stopped at 50% of the upward leg, if this went more than 50% the upward trend would be at risk, volumes are higher on up days confirming upwards trend also


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## Bullion

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Placement at 4.8c! ouchie...


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

yeah what exactly does that mean no trades seem to be going through now.

This may have just turned into a medium term investment for me


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## Bullion

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It's open again, basically means the company has made new shares available for another investor at a very cheap price... 4.8c


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

well i guess that has its  good and bad points.

the bad thing is it will decrease SP right?

the good thing is it looks like a better company with institutional investors getting on board

thoughts?


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

im gonna paper trade this, ok im pretending to buy at 6,2c just as i type

edit: quick get the rubber and change that to 6c,


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## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Did anyone else"s heart skip a beat in the last 10 mins


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

yeah i watched my 15% gain go down the dunnie. i'm not phased though, there are heaps of buyers and less sellers.

I'm making a prediction (with no real basis) that this stock will go up both today and continue upward trend


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

interestingly the sellers appeared at .046 which is what the placement was at, if the sellers have evaporated the stock should continue to climb. Hopefully the insto's clients that got shares are in for the long term because they see some potential in the stock.

FYI: I am not a daytrader, I have been sitting on this stock for months, bought in at .031


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

seems to be alot of hesitation around .06 . I'm thinkin alot of daytraders got the hebie jebies after what just happened

Just kidding guys, i like day traders . I just dont have the balls to be one atm  :


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

next couple of days will be interesting, may have to put off that new BMW for now  

need a positive announcement soon


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

its unusual there is heaps of buyers and few sellers, look like the flood waters are building behind the dam.

Just wanna see what happens when somebody makes the first move


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## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

mexican standoff at the moment, no shares are moving


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## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

ooooooooh 5.7 it hurts soooo bad


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## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

i think this is oversold and will bounce back up


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## Moneybags

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> im gonna paper trade this, ok im pretending to buy at 6,2c just as i type
> 
> edit: quick get the rubber and change that to 6c,




toc bat,

I wish I had a dollar for everytime you've cracked me up.........keep up the good work.   

MB


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## Georgeb

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I have heard though my networking we will see good things from PEN. Management is very good and well credentialed. My broker thinks this will reach 7.5c in the short term.


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## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Georgeb said:
			
		

> Management is very good and well credentialed.




Ah yes, i agree, after all only very good management would do a placement at a 27% discount to the market price.  

Come on people, if you want to ramp thats okay, but at least make them high quality ramps, like chickens...


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## Georgeb

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

If you are not impressed with management either get out of the stock or write to them and express your dissatisfaction.


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## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

up 10.5% so far

heading north

finish around 6.6 - 7.0 cps


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## Georgeb

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It is good to see some people have gone back into their box today. There is no comment on the credentials of management or the placement.


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## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Still have resistance levels 0.065/0.066 to prove, imo...


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

awesome announcements today!

10c here we come


----------



## greggy

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> awesome announcements today!
> 
> 10c here we come



Bullish call there.  On what basis do you make this call, for PEN shareholders I hope you're right.  PEN has a very interesting story.
DYOR


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> Bullish call there.  On what basis do you make this call, for PEN shareholders I hope you're right.  PEN has a very interesting story.
> DYOR




well i am not close from it now

6.6 cps

should open around 7-7.5 on Monday no doubt

i am going to accumulate more


----------



## toc_bat

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> awesome announcements today!
> 
> 10c here we come




maltese

why are these anns so good for PEN?  apart from only being able to read one of them so far, all i understand is that PEN have sold a potentially good gold project to SOMEONE ELSE! 

please tell this newbie why you see this differently, i wanna get educated 

cya


----------



## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Looks like retrace has been complete and volume is picking up.


----------



## mu5hu

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yeah thats wat i'm thinking too IMO
it mite have a small fall tm but should be on the move up. Looking at its depth, a few million sellers at different prices on the wai up but dun thikn it should be too hard to get thru those in a few days. 
Prob lookin at a high of 7.4-7.5 but could go a bit past maybe IMO
Volume is picking up too


----------



## SevenFX

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN moving along nicely up 15% and 25m in vol.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> PEN moving along nicely up 15% and 25m in vol.



All time high close yesterday, no overhead resistance now, im not suprised by the action.
DYL maybe the next one to go off...


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				toc_bat said:
			
		

> maltese
> 
> why are these anns so good for PEN?  apart from only being able to read one of them so far, all i understand is that PEN have sold a potentially good gold project to SOMEONE ELSE!
> 
> please tell this newbie why you see this differently, i wanna get educated
> 
> cya




did you see today's price, say no more

wish i was still holding though :-( killing myself


----------



## clowboy

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Maltese bull

What do you mean still holding? when did you sell?  I thought you where the only longterm bull on this stock?

I sold out 2/3 of holdings on friday thinking i was a gun getting 6.9cps - DOH

Aside from all that, what the hell?  No anouncement or anything and up 25%

Wheres the query?  Or do they only issue those for 50%+ gains now?


----------



## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Maltese interested to read you no longer held pen,i thought you were the leading bull when it came to pen.Anyway i hope you found a bigger fish to fry,and you made $$ on the way up.one would think a speeding ticket may be
issued tomorrow up from 0.061 to intra day 0.091 today, 3 days trading 50% gain and no announcements ?????  hmmm


----------



## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I pulled my partial sell order @0.085 and walked away for a while.
Came back and it's 0.09....  

Hmm, 50% in 3 days.... Maybe I should sell some tomorrow...


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hey everyone,

This one is breaking off a long term resistance.

I was lucky enough to go on holidays & came back this afternoon, if I was in any day last week I would've sold 

Volume is good but didn't explode as yet, tomorrow is a tuesday & possibly there will be some tricks played & may test new highs.

I'm happy i got in late 5c, even that I should've got in at 2c couple of months earlier    but looking at mid 7c & I can almost bet that there will be a good fight for these levels as a support, as far as we all can see.....it's all clear skies at the moment.

There is a rush to get more shares from big guys, they're taking on higher & they like big sell orders & not afraid of them, could easily tell that some news are on the way....may be after the speeding ticket!!   

cheers,


----------



## clowboy

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				IGO4IT said:
			
		

> tomorrow is a tuesday





Do you trade from america?  Or have you just forgotten what day it is in your excitment?


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> Do you trade from america?  Or have you just forgotten what day it is in your excitment?




 , no i'm in sydney, too much alcohol in NYE probably.

yes.....tomorrow is wednesday......could have some tricks as well 

cheers,


----------



## johnmwu3

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Speeding ticket to PEN.
Today's price may trace back, but from the volume of yesterday, the draw back will not be big.


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Gone out today on 9.2c, won't be shocked if it reaches 13c this week, so i'm willing to reenter if we could see some selling! so far all the buys are pushing it higher with no real sells, so i'm expecting a fall back to early 8c for profit taking then I can re-enter, on the same note, still won't be shocked if it kept going higher!

will be intersting to see if end of 7c will be tested or if buying power will push it higher without a test.

cheers,


----------



## johnmwu3

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Huge Uranium ?
PEN in its Nov.27 ann. :
 Site 22 :  18 sursace samples turn out average 1,899 ppm Uranium, including the Max. 27.780 ppm U., while Molybdenum averaged 373 ppm.
Site 29 : 17 sursace samples turn out average 3,231 ppm Uranium, including the Max.15,369 ppm U., while Molybdenum averaged 613 ppm.


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

From Friday's trading, sells are coming bigger & more than I expected, I'm actually starting to think that some big long termers are realising some profits not just the short term traders, which I can't blame them for since history shows that drops could go as ugly as 2c!

I was very close tor re-enter at end of 7c but i realised that more are pushing it lower & depth is not showing any real buyers, which imo means that it still has a bit to go downwards & no one is willing to support it as these levels as yet!

Technically, if last low was approx. 6c & since current high is higher than last high, then I think a drop up to 6.5c should still keep it intact although we all know it will shake a lot traders & longs in the way & it will look really ugly if it does go that low.

Another big week to come ahead in PEN imo, on the weekly chart there is a very tiny gap between 6.9 & 7c that could be filled & it had 2 consective white candles, which most likely will mean that at some point or another it may drop to even fill that small gap or to collect energy for another move higher ..... in both cases it would be only logical as we can't expect any share to just keep moving higher & higher on weekly chart with no pull back.

This week could have amazing opportunities to top up or re-enter imo & if we are to try to predict, it will have to slow down & move sideways for at least 2 days before it starts to move higher again.

cheers,


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Back in yesterday at 6.5c avg, gap is filled & I think this range holds some resistance. buys starting to appear which means if we're not at bottom...then we're close.

willing to take some paperloss if it dives as I think it won't be long before it goes up again.

cheers,


----------



## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

trend channel has been broken out of downwards which means caution needed. an article in the afr on the weekend was negative towards smaller uranium explorers which might explain sentiment this week.


----------



## mu5hu

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Looks like it has come out of the flag and has done a reversal. July 10 and 11 candlesticks created a bullish homing pigeon. of course DYOR


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				mu5hu said:
			
		

> Looks like it has come out of the flag and has done a reversal. July 10 and 11 candlesticks created a bullish homing pigeon. of course DYOR




  From what I remember from being on colours parades a flag is not allowed to touch the ground, and this one comes perilously close..    ..
  A bullish homing pidgeon ???? whats that.. ............I think its more like a McGrath-Peterson bouncer.. it will rise to around .08 before going down like it's been shot.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> From what I remember from being on colours parades a flag is not allowed to touch the ground, and this one comes perilously close..    ..
> A bullish homing pidgeon ???? whats that.. ............I think its more like a McGrath-Peterson bouncer.. it will rise to around .08 before going down like it's been shot.



Doesn't qualify for any 'reversal' that I know of. The two prior trading days could have been a harami, but the second last day had to be a positive candle. The bounce has been at support around $0.065 ish I think. The general short term uptrend is still in tact though. Needs to keep making higher highs, or it will then start to look vulnerable. Certainly, breaking down through $0.065 will be negative IMO. 

Happy to have the reversal identified explained in a little more detail so I understand though.....thanks. 

(not holding)


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Doesn't qualify for any 'reversal' that I know of. The two prior trading days could have been a harami, but the second last day had to be a positive candle. The bounce has been at support around $0.065 ish I think. The general short term uptrend is still in tact though. Needs to keep making higher highs, or it will then start to look vulnerable. Certainly, breaking down through $0.065 will be negative IMO.
> 
> Happy to have the reversal identified explained in a little more detail so I understand though.....thanks.
> 
> (not holding)




   From what I understand of bullish flags the pole should consist of 1 or more days of consecutive rises on high vol. The flag usually has decreasing vol, and be of 3-10 days duration. The b/o should occur on increased vol and the point at the top edge of the flag where it breaks should not be below 50% of the poles height. So basically I don't see a flag here.

  As for the reversal, I don't usually chart the specs but for some reason I did with Pen when it was around the 7c mark. So far it has performed as expected. I don't hold now but did take a bite from .72 to .9.... Have been tracking it since out of interest to see if I can work out a method of trading these minnows.


----------



## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



> candlesticks created a bullish homing pigeon



From litwick.com (candlestick patterns illustrated there...)


> *Homing Pigeon Bullish*
> Pattern: Reversal
> Trend: *Bullish*
> Reliability: Moderate
> 
> How to Identify it
> The first day is a long black day
> The second day is a smaller black day that is within the body of the first day
> 
> What it Means
> In a downtrend, the bears continue to have their way. However, the second day opening and closing within the body of the first day suggests an erosion of the downtrend. Ensuing sell-offs, followed by buy-ins could result in a bullish reversal.



Then, again,


> *Harami Cross Bullish*
> 
> Pattern: Reversal
> Trend: *Bullish*
> Reliability: Low
> 
> How to Identify it
> A long black day occurs
> The second day is a *doji *within the real body of the previous day
> 
> What it Means
> After a long black day at the low end of a downtrend, the market opens higher than the previous day’s close and closes at the open. The Harami Cross indicator is more definite than the basic Harami indcator, and signifies a reversal for the bulls.




Note: Reliability moderate and low. Would wait for further confirmation, imo, esp. after such a volatile week.


----------



## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Kauri,
Just curious which software do you use with the Fibs?

Cheers, ezy.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Ezytrader, So the 'Homing Pigeon Bullish' fits the mould, with a moderare reliability? Perhaps it was confirmed with the positive day yesterday? The Harami Cross doesn't fit. Interesting, I hadn't read about this pigeon before, must look it up. Thanks.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

A good site for candle patterns... 
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bull/abandoned_baby_bullish.cfm


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> A good site for candle patterns...
> http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bull/abandoned_baby_bullish.cfm



Kauri, thanks for this link. Love the 'abandoned baby' pattern. Noise!!! Anothing one I must learn!!!!! No, haven't been there yet and not planning to. That is, abondoning a baby - because I don't have any. Just soft toys...


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> From what I understand of bullish flags the pole should consist of 1 or more days of consecutive rises on high vol. The flag usually has decreasing vol, and be of 3-10 days duration. The b/o should occur on increased vol and the point at the top edge of the flag where it breaks should not be below 50% of the poles height. So basically I don't see a flag here.
> 
> As for the reversal, I don't usually chart the specs but for some reason I did with Pen when it was around the 7c mark. So far it has performed as expected. I don't hold now but did take a bite from .72 to .9.... Have been tracking it since out of interest to see if I can work out a method of trading these minnows.




Hi Kauri,

From your graph, I don't see a reason for your prediction for your mentioned fourth wave to stop at 8c. do you any reasoning for it?

last high was a new high at 9.4c & last low was 6.4c which is higher than previous low of 5.9c, which in theory, should mean that we're on the way to retest last high of 9.4c....failing, in case of failure, should be around mid or end of 8c & most likely early 9c......don't forget.....many are stuck at the top & have to exit ...... or make some profits 

if we use your waves theory, we could also assume that last wave (which you mentioned to be wave 3) could be wave 4 or 5....depends on how far will we start counting.

I always support the theory of the retest to highs regardless of the sitiuation, as long as last high is record high & most likely any failure to achieve it could be viewed if increase stops around 5-10% before it reaches the record high & of course it will be followed by the fast volume charged decline.

But from what I see, its a simple retest to the highest level reached, if it succeeds, then an increase to 10-10.5c is immenent (depends on volume) & if it fails then a high of I would assume 9c will be reached first then followed by a fast volumed decline.

but as far as I can see, there's more evidence to support a new highest high is coming (which is the higher low achieved) than to support the theory of a failure to a retest that hasn't officially started as yet   

In my understanding, if we had a "lower" low (below 5.9c) then we could simply say that coming higher will be lower than previous high & a downtrend will begin!

would like to hear everyone's opinion.

cheers,


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				IGO4IT said:
			
		

> Hi Kauri,
> 
> From your graph, I don't see a reason for your prediction for your mentioned fourth wave to stop at 8c. do you any reasoning for it?
> 
> last high was a new high at 9.4c & last low was 6.4c which is higher than previous low of 5.9c, which in theory, should mean that we're on the way to retest last high of 9.4c....failing, in case of failure, should be around mid or end of 8c & most likely early 9c......don't forget.....many are stuck at the top & have to exit ...... or make some profits
> 
> if we use your waves theory, we could also assume that last wave (which you mentioned to be wave 3) could be wave 4 or 5....depends on how far will we start counting.
> 
> I always support the theory of the retest to highs regardless of the sitiuation, as long as last high is record high & most likely any failure to achieve it could be viewed if increase stops around 5-10% before it reaches the record high & of course it will be followed by the fast volume charged decline.
> 
> But from what I see, its a simple retest to the highest level reached, if it succeeds, then an increase to 10-10.5c is immenent (depends on volume) & if it fails then a high of I would assume 9c will be reached first then followed by a fast volumed decline.
> 
> but as far as I can see, there's more evidence to support a new highest high is coming (which is the higher low achieved) than to support the theory of a failure to a retest that hasn't officially started as yet
> 
> would like to hear everyone's opinion.
> 
> cheers,



Well, I'm no EW fan, but I've punched this out to see what could occur before the next sustained uptrend. 

I've chosen around 6 ish as the bottom on support levels as it's about a 50% fib retractment but 5 might be a possibility too. 

(generally speaking)


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Kauri's lines are not predictions purely a representation that most corrective patterns are in 3 waves.

However if a forth wave developes then it will turn into a 5 wave pattern of which the completed 5 waves could be wave 1 of a 3 wave pattern.
Complex wave corrections are common.

The correction will be more prolonged obviously than a simple 3 wave pattern.

Elliot Wave analysis is a facsinating subject and for those who are interested in taking the time (usually a couple of years) to learn it the Bible is

" Dynamic Trading" by Robert Miner ISBN 0-934380-83-X

and if your really interested Join Nick Radges "The Chartist" for a year or so.

Proficient understanding doesnt come easy---nothing worth doing in life normally is.
Its not something you'll pick up in a few weeks---well not to a degree that will give you the edge that this form of analysis can give those who become expert.

Its not voodoo (once you gain an understanding) but has been around since the early 1900s,Miner has taken the analysis into the 21s century.

Not for everyone but generally followed by those who notice that Elliot Analysis has a habit of getting it right so often that you just have to know more.

How much of a difference would it make to your trading if you had the ability to know before hand with above average accuracy where a trade was going to go and how long it would take to get there?

Kennas---your analysis may well be close as fib is definately part of the use of Elliot Analysis.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Kennas---your analysis may well be close as fib is definately part of the use of Elliot Analysis.



Hi Tech, Intersting without any real true  understaning of EW I have the bottom at somewhere between 5 and 6 - say 5.5. Kauri's EW target is 5.3, but I have the bottom *approximate * spt line at 5......I should really learn some of this EW stuff one day....  

I have actually noticed over the last little while that support and resistance lines are appearing around 38%, 50% and 62% quite consistantly......Self fulfilling prophecy maybe??


----------



## ezyTrader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Same here, Kennas.

Am currently reading Nick Radge's book "Adaptive Analysis" which discusses the EW trading with Fibs. Certainly, a refreshing style. I'd probably need to read his book a few times tho...


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Playing PEN likes playing fire. Trading maybe OK if you know what you are doing. But for investment purpose, this stock may not have the grade comparing other uranium stocks. Just be careful.


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Kauri's lines are not predictions purely a representation that most corrective patterns are in 3 waves.
> 
> However if a forth wave developes then it will turn into a 5 wave pattern of which the completed 5 waves could be wave 1 of a 3 wave pattern.
> Complex wave corrections are common.
> 
> The correction will be more prolonged obviously than a simple 3 wave pattern.
> 
> Elliot Wave analysis is a facsinating subject and for those who are interested in taking the time (usually a couple of years) to learn it the Bible is
> 
> " Dynamic Trading" by Robert Miner ISBN 0-934380-83-X
> 
> and if your really interested Join Nick Radges "The Chartist" for a year or so.
> 
> Proficient understanding doesnt come easy---nothing worth doing in life normally is.
> Its not something you'll pick up in a few weeks---well not to a degree that will give you the edge that this form of analysis can give those who become expert.
> 
> Its not voodoo (once you gain an understanding) but has been around since the early 1900s,Miner has taken the analysis into the 21s century.
> 
> Not for everyone but generally followed by those who notice that Elliot Analysis has a habit of getting it right so often that you just have to know more.
> 
> How much of a difference would it make to your trading if you had the ability to know before hand with above average accuracy where a trade was going to go and how long it would take to get there?
> 
> Kennas---your analysis may well be close as fib is definately part of the use of Elliot Analysis.




Tech/a,

I have to admit that I've never been a fan of EW, specially into the current mining industry as fundemental events are often & market reaction is not usually logical to event, as you & many will know.....forces of an inc. or dec. or even favoriting most of mining stocks are coming from base metals markets increase & decrease & of course each company's case is differnet but mostly for instance if zinc producers are favourites for a prediction of zinc increase then all smalls & bigs will have a share of the fun, same with Uranium producers, etc...

I read a couple of books on EW & I found them to be more appropriate to what I call "basic blue chip companies" , retailers, banks, etc....
the reason I thought it will only fit such industries is that market dynamics of buy/sell is usually based on forcasted profits/dividends & general market/economy indicators could give investors indication to what's coming up.

In mining section, specially specs., there's no such "organised" buy/sell dynamics as fundemental events & speculations of what could come up is what controls the predicted profitablity of the company NOT a calculated measure of profits as retailers/banks/etc...

For instance, you have DYL which is almost 50c now.......for no particular reason other than the interest of big companies in it, EXT, AEX, PEN, AAR WMT,etc.... all these if weighted on general calculated buy/sell dynamics...they won't be worth 1c, they haven't produced 1c as yet of their expected productions even some are back to drawing board & have years of loss to come before they make any profits.

That was my idea on EW, I think its generally implemented on stable buy/sell demand with basic profit/loss/dividend expectation, but mining companies buy/sell dynamics are based mainly on fundemental events that could double the company price overnight just because another big player bought $1M worth of shares in it  , not to mention that if a broker is stuck in at a high avg, then most likely it will move higher at some stage....again for NO fundemental/logical reason.

Sorry to go a bit off topic, but as you can tell, EW theory is not my favourite when it comes to mining...of course I could be wrong.

would also love to see if anyone has any example of how EW ever worked on any mining stock in the period after 2003.

cheers,


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> From what I remember from being on colours parades a flag is not allowed to touch the ground, and this one comes perilously close..  ..
> A bullish homing pidgeon ???? whats that.. ............I think its more like a McGrath-Peterson bouncer.. it will rise to around .08 before going down like it's been shot.




   Playing out so far, has turned at .08.....


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN is up  12.82% today.    Sorry I can't post a chart don't have the software or no how at the moment.


----------



## krisbarry

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yes PEN has been moving up of late with very large volume too.

I love this Uranium hype, anything and everything that has a wiff of Uranium is moving, hard and fast


----------



## krisbarry

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

6 Month Chart


----------



## krisbarry

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

After several attempts at the 9 cents mark, PEN looks set to smash through 9, heading toward double digits.

Uranium is hot, and all uranium stocks have been running.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Distinctly trending upward with sideways movement atm.....PEN is setting for another run and seems to have hit support level. Looking very positive indeed.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

What no posters about the PEN breakout today?
Volume 30,916,869
VWAP now at .088

Lower level of the linear regression channel was respected at .080 
my call at the .080 bottom proved correct it seems.....  

Hope someone is enjoying the ride...I am


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Are you all having a sleep?

2 days in a row PEN has broken away  ....and not a word?


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yes...it breakouts....

If it could stay on the current level for couple of days would build up support around 9 - 9.5 c

The next short term resistance is  10 c , past that resistance would be beneficial for the holders as the movement will be 0.5 c compare to current movement of 0.1 c


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Does anyone else think that PEN rise lately may be related to the South African Govts ann. of a second nuclear plant to be built with their preferred supplier to be announced soon?


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				mickqld said:
			
		

> Does anyone else think that PEN rise lately may be related to the South African Govts ann. of a second nuclear plant to be built with their preferred supplier to be announced soon?





what ann would that be?


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				rockingham178 said:
			
		

> what ann would that be?




From Reuters Soth Africa

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - South Africa will build a second conventional nuclear power station in a bid to boost lagging energy supplies, Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin said on Monday.

"The decision to build the second plant has been taken... the technology has been evaluated and we hope to make a decision on the preferred bidder in the first quarter of this year," Erwin told a news briefing at parliament.

Africa's economic giant, South Africa currently operates the only nuclear power station on the continent at Koeberg, about 50 km (31 miles) outside Cape Town.

The country is facing a serious energy crisis, which has seen intermittent blackouts as the national grid struggles to cope with increasing demand.

Energy utility Eskom has predicted that the country could face power shortages as it prepares to host the 2010 Soccer World Cup.

Besides Koeberg, which is a conventional nuclear plant, the government has committed billions of rand to developing experimental nuclear technology in the form of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, which counts America's Westinghouse as one of its development partners.

Japan's Toshiba Corp owns a majority stake in Westinghouse.

While South Africa says the Pebble Bed model may be a long-term solution to its energy problems, Erwin said the plant now being planned would be built along conventional lines.

"The technology we've chosen would be conventional... These are technologies in use elsewhere in the world," he said.

South Africa has identified uranium as a strategic mineral as it finalised a national nuclear energy strategy.

"Over the long term, given that South Africa is a key uranium producer, and if we do a much bigger build, we would have to give thought to how we supply our plants," he said, adding that the mineral was increasingly in short supply.

Last year South Africa committed itself to switch from using highly-enriched uranium to a process where more lowly-enriched uranium could be used in nuclear power facilities.

Highly-enriched uranium can be used in nuclear weapons, and Erwin emphasised the government was not considering the military uses of uranium, but only planned for the mineral to be used in power plants.



 © Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				mickqld said:
			
		

> From Reuters Soth Africa
> 
> CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - South Africa will build a second conventional nuclear power station in a bid to boost lagging energy supplies, Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin said on Monday.
> 
> "The decision to build the second plant has been taken... the technology has been evaluated and we hope to make a decision on the preferred bidder in the first quarter of this year," Erwin told a news briefing at parliament.
> 
> Africa's economic giant, South Africa currently operates the only nuclear power station on the continent at Koeberg, about 50 km (31 miles) outside Cape Town.
> 
> The country is facing a serious energy crisis, which has seen intermittent blackouts as the national grid struggles to cope with increasing demand.
> 
> Energy utility Eskom has predicted that the country could face power shortages as it prepares to host the 2010 Soccer World Cup.
> 
> © Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.




Cheers for that Mick,
I didd see that but I didn't relate it to PEN being the preferred bidder.
The preferred bidder in this ann refers to the builder of the plant I believe. However supply will be the next ...and it is not by accident that PEN have two leases on the rail line from Beaufort to Cape Town on the doorstep and it is close to Cape Town.

PEN will not have any problem at all having approvals in place to get this U out of the ground and it seems a lot of it at high grades. This won't go unnoticed for long.

Good find though, thanks again Mick.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Watch PEN closely tomorrow.

Huge at close today with 4.77m shares traded within 14 minutes of close with a big run up from .093 to close at .097. Over half the days trades within the last 15 minutes.  

Heaps of cross trades toward close.

Something may be up so just keep watch....may or may not be the next big run that may just break the .105 barrier.

I for one hope it does and just keeps on going......up of course.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Well is anybody watching??????

tried to tell you...


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Rockingham,

I am watching this share.....it has been running for quite a while


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				j4mesa said:
			
		

> Rockingham,
> 
> I am watching this share.....it has been running for quite a while




And it is going to run very hard today......huge buy build in the last hour and most of the big buys that have occurred are offscreen

I buy yesterday 3.9m shares.


----------



## Techbuy

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN is in a trading halt and the IAP is at 10.5c


----------



## Rob_ee

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

*<<i buy yesterday 3.9m shares>>*

WOW rockingham , thats about $400,000 worth

You must have very deep pockets and some excellent information.

Big Volume spike yesterday and up substantially... now at 3pm in a trading halt.

Lots of people must have kno... I mean expected good news.

Good luck to you and all the holders


----------



## austcomp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PMH requested a trading halt at 2.38pm, something is going on between the two


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Rob_ee said:
			
		

> *<<i buy yesterday 3.9m shares>>*
> 
> WOW rockingham , thats about $400,000 worth
> 
> You must have very deep pockets and some excellent information.
> 
> Big Volume spike yesterday and up substantially... now at 3pm in a trading halt.
> 
> Lots of people must have kno... I mean expected good news.
> 
> Good luck to you and all the holders




Rob_ee .....et al

My sincere apologies I wasn't saying I bought 3.9m shares (I wish) it was a typo by me. I was saying 1(one) buy went through at 3.9m shares.

But I do have a very nice parcel.

Trading halt is all good news.....PMH went into trading halt within 2 minutes with the same ann. AS mentioned on HC, PEN are about to aquire the Pacmag U assets.....PMH have openly disclosed they were going to do so and this will be it.

The recent trading activity has all been positive and someone knew of this in advance (as is always the case). So PEN holders and the lucky few who bought over the last couple of weeks you are about to have a big win! 

Why this didn't get more attention on ASF is beyond me.....maybe people thought I was having a lend of them who knows?? 

Good luck to all.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This is definately it, PEN is going to be huge people.....Uranium assets in the US and Sth Africa........I am so excited.

See the PacMag ann:

06 Feb 2007  PacMag secures Wyoming uranium project 

In part.....

KEY POINTS
• PacMag has secured exclusive rights to portions of the advanced Sundance uranium project in Wyoming USA, including major parts of the Oshoto uranium deposits.
• Historical drill intersections from the area acquired include; 3.8 metres (12.5 feet) @ 0.243% eU3O8, 3.5 metres (11.5 feet) @ 0.159% eU3O8, 6.2 metres (20.5 feet) @ 0.083% eU3O8 and 9.1 metres (30 feet) @ 0.056% eU3O8, with local vertical stacking of uranium roll fronts.
• Previous trial mining has demonstrated that the Oshoto uranium mineralisation is amenable to in-situ leaching. Wyoming is host to several former and currently operating uranium mines owned by companies such as Cameco, Rio Tinto and Cogema.
• Technical data covering the project, including a drilling database, is owned by PacMag, which will facilitate conversion of the previous resources and reserve estimates to JORC compliance.
• As previously foreshadowed, in order to focus on its advanced copper-molybdenum assets, PacMag is progressing negotiations regarding the possible divestment of the Company’s uranium portfolio, including this Wyoming uranium project.


----------



## happytown

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

as rockingham alluded to (from the asx ann from pacmag dated 06/02/07):

"...

As previously foreshadowed, in order to focus on its advanced copper-molybdenum assets, PacMag is progressing negotiations regarding the possible divestment of the Company’s uranium portfolio, including this Wyoming uranium project. The consideration for any divestment will include a substantial number of ASX listed shares, the majority of which the Company would intend to distribute to PacMag shareholders in-specie, subject to shareholder approval. The Company will release further details on the divestment should all pre-conditions be met, on execution of binding agreements.

..."

cheers


----------



## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				rockingham178 said:
			
		

> This is definately it, PEN is going to be huge people.....Uranium assets in the US and Sth Africa........I am so excited.
> 
> See the PacMag ann:
> 
> 06 Feb 2007  PacMag secures Wyoming uranium project
> 
> In part.....
> 
> KEY POINTS
> • PacMag has secured exclusive rights to portions of the advanced Sundance uranium project in Wyoming USA, including major parts of the Oshoto uranium deposits.
> • Historical drill intersections from the area acquired include; 3.8 metres (12.5 feet) @ 0.243% eU3O8, 3.5 metres (11.5 feet) @ 0.159% eU3O8, 6.2 metres (20.5 feet) @ 0.083% eU3O8 and 9.1 metres (30 feet) @ 0.056% eU3O8, with local vertical stacking of uranium roll fronts.
> • Previous trial mining has demonstrated that the Oshoto uranium mineralisation is amenable to in-situ leaching. Wyoming is host to several former and currently operating uranium mines owned by companies such as Cameco, Rio Tinto and Cogema.
> • Technical data covering the project, including a drilling database, is owned by PacMag, which will facilitate conversion of the previous resources and reserve estimates to JORC compliance.
> • As previously foreshadowed, in order to focus on its advanced copper-molybdenum assets, PacMag is progressing negotiations regarding the possible divestment of the Company’s uranium portfolio, including this Wyoming uranium project.




I hope your right rockingham, i think some irish luck may have come through
for me here, i've been trading in and out of PEN since nov last year. I jumped
back in last week @ .096 on the back of those big volume days. Just luck to be in atm.
Anyway good luck guys, lets hope its all good news, roll on next tuesday!!!
cheers marc


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				marc1 said:
			
		

> I hope your right rockingham, i think some irish luck may have come through
> for me here, i've been trading in and out of PEN since nov last year. I jumped
> back in last week @ .096 on the back of those big volume days. Just luck to be in atm.
> Anyway good luck guys, lets hope its all good news, roll on next tuesday!!!
> cheers marc




Marc...so do I

Just speculating, although I don't think unrealistic, PMH are focussed solely on copper and molybdenum....PEN want to be a U producer and have Molybdenum in South Africa.

What are the possibilities that this will include a share/resource swap arrangement?

Also if the ann is about the US Wyoming Sundance Uranium assets they are already able to be advanced to Jorc compliance. The U assets of PMH also include Sth Australian leases and they have indicated "others" but no details.

I know I am speculating.... but I find the posibility of this all quite exciting!


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This is old but still relevant...I am very glad Warwick Grigor is the Executive Director of PEN...

http://strategypage.com/militaryforums/69-26217.aspx


----------



## pennystock

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Guy's
Just reading your posts on PEN. I have held this stock @ 5.4c from Nov 2006. Volumes have been very strong since then but one thing that really got me excited was one buyer on the 13th of Feb 07, 5 million @ .099c I felt then that something was a foot, now we have a trading halt. Did people know before hand about this mmmm maybe, I'm happy I hold and looking forward to Monday-Tuesday, hope the news is good


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Far better than expected....

This one is a gem and already eluded to...but this is the one that will make PEN holders very wealthy indeed. JORC pending....

From todays ann....

The Sundance district hosts a significant amount of uranium mineralisation over a large
area (35 kilometres by 8 kilometres). The mineralisation, which is related to an extensive
system of roll fronts, is hosted in several discrete uranium deposits, and along the
oxidation-reduction interfaces throughout the area. The uranium mineral deposits in the
area of Oshoto, where the claims are situated, are amenable to in-situ leaching, as
demonstrated by the results of the pilot plant program undertaken in the late 1970’s.
Technical data covering the project including drilling database is owned by PacMag,
which will facilitate conversion of the previous resources and reserve estimates to JORC
compliance.
The technical data purchased by PacMag and to be acquired by Peninsula covers the
full extents of the roll front systems in the Sundance district, whilst the mineral rights
(~1000 acres) cover important parts of two of the Oshoto deposits, and further state
mining leases (1500 acres) cover portions of the projections of the roll fronts south of the
deposits.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yep they got some great assets just wish they didnt have so many shares on offer but have got a good management team


----------



## wotthe

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Just wondering how far people think PEN could go, following the recent announcements ...


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				wotthe said:
			
		

> Just wondering how far people think PEN could go, following the recent announcements ...




At the risk of being accused of ramping and getting far too excited in the past, I would suggest a simple comparison of other U stocks

Look closely at WMT, BMN, BLR in particular ( I will exclude UKL only because it has a low number of shares on issue)...not identical by any means but a lot of similarities. I favoured PEN for what that had before let alone what they now have. 

In addition to current holdings of advanced exploration at Karoo province in South Africa (govt actively promoting and encouraging U mining), the Raki Raki Gold project (cash flow with update ann due) and just have a little look at the potential of nickel exposure in WA. $4.5m cash at bank, nil debt. Add in they have exceptional management and geologists.

The latest aquisitions now takes PEN to a much higher plain:

# Jorc compliant database for the Sundance project in Wyoming a recognised uranium mining province in the US (ready access to road, rail and infrastructure).
# Australian U leases in SA.

If more is required to make PEN move upward then I am obviously missing something. PEN should alreeady be at least in the teens now...conservatively speaking. They will have ~800m shares on issue (including ops) after this is sealed but they have a jorc compliant lease in the US, what value do you place on an asset like that? IMO when the details of this database are made public (which obviously the board of PEN must know) then PEN will be in double digits.

IMHO I believe the PEN sp is still being manipulated and the current environment is perfect for whoever has been doing so now for over 5 weeks that I am aware of. 

Selling atm is obviously personal choice, but think what is about to eventuate with this company, a sleeping giant IMHO.

Please DYOR and do not take this as a recommendation to buy/sell/hold. This is my opinion only and a brief summary of the reasons I hold.


----------



## wotthe

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I have to say your enthusiasm for PEN helped feed my interest Rockingham ...I bought a few shares (very smalltime and new player) after the announcement but was doing comparisons with UNX until I realised that UNX had only 50 million shares.

That's what got me wondering as to how big an effect this would have on it's potential.

The timing of the announcement couldn't have been any worse, could it ... although the share turnover has been pretty spectacular!


----------



## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				wotthe said:
			
		

> I have to say your enthusiasm for PEN helped feed my interest Rockingham ...I bought a few shares (very smalltime and new player) after the announcement but was doing comparisons with UNX until I realised that UNX had only 50 million shares.
> 
> That's what got me wondering as to how big an effect this would have on it's potential.
> 
> The timing of the announcement couldn't have been any worse, could it ... although the share turnover has been pretty spectacular!



Wotthe you mentioned the volume in your last post,check out  the long term 

chart on pen.Say 10 years ,the volume increase over the last 12 to 18 months 

is quite pronounced, from memory sp high was 40 to 45 ish,it has been a very 

volatile stock over the years as the price spikes clearly indicate.

I am holding a small parcel atm but with the market the way it is atm it may

take some really positive ann to support these stocks.

good luck all holders


----------



## wotthe

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks Marc ... I'm learning stuff by the minute here. I looked at 5-year but didn't even consider 10. I can see I need to brush up on my research technique before I think about any more buys ... seems you guys leave no stone unturned!


----------



## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				wotthe said:
			
		

> Thanks Marc ... I'm learning stuff by the minute here. I looked at 5-year but didn't even consider 10. I can see I need to brush up on my research technique before I think about any more buys ... seems you guys leave no stone unturned!



I'm only a newbie to the site myself.plenty to learn everyday on this site
some very knowledgable posters and well moderated.
Happy trading wotthe.
sorry off the thread title slighty.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This was trending beautifully until the blip. Might be a little resistance here at 9 cents, but once it's through, back onto all time highs by the look. MACD is showing downward momentum which is understandable, but if the real correction doesn't eventuate then it will probably turn pretty quick. What a great run. Good work if you were on this a few months ago.


----------



## marc1

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks for the chart K i will master them one day


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				marc1 said:
			
		

> Wotthe you mentioned the volume in your last post,check out  the long term
> 
> chart on pen.Say 10 years ,the volume increase over the last 12 to 18 months
> 
> is quite pronounced, from memory sp high was 40 to 45 ish,it has been a very
> 
> volatile stock over the years as the price spikes clearly indicate.
> 
> I am holding a small parcel atm but with the market the way it is atm it may
> 
> take some really positive ann to support these stocks.
> 
> good luck all holders




marc1, why go back 10 years when pen has only been pen since 12/5/2004 sp 2.5cents (formerley kanonwna lights nl). To compare PEN of today to what was is like comparing swiss cheese to off milk. 

Different management, days gone by with KL best forgotten related to tantalum (which SoG also fell foul of). PEN has never been "40 to 45 ish", in fact the highest in the period you indicate KL ever got to was .45 on the 4/9/97 and it closed at .38

With respect marc it is simply fundamentally erroneous to use this analogy and misleading to all on asf.

PEN was .02 on the 24/8/06 and has been in a definate uptrend since (without this announcement).

Yes I have done my research and never place any of my hard earned into anything until I do. 

PEN is an excellent value stock and is way oversold (IMHO of course) ...pure and simple...and I will be proven correct.


Please DYOR and do not take this as a recommendation to buy/sell/hold. This is my opinion only and a brief summary of the reasons I hold.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Well I guess that killed conversation on ASF about PEN.........

Surely someone has something to say.......

cheers


----------



## wotthe

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				rockingham178 said:
			
		

> Well I guess that killed conversation on ASF about PEN.........
> Surely someone has something to say.......
> 
> cheers



I guess the action of the past week killed a fair bit of conversation!

I was encouraged by Kennas' comments about PEN going through 9c then ever upward ...

It seems to me the announcement still hasn't been given the weight it's worth ... or am I just misreading things?


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN is doing just fine considering the correction and was doing so just before it occurred.

In the last 2 days it has rallied back very nicely indeed. Lots of traders having a birthday but that won't last IMO....a lot of tree shaking going on as well as the accumulation continues.

A lot of speculation going on about the last ann...me I have focussed solely on the major aspects that will significant, of which I have posted previously.

PEN has and will continue to be good to me and others for a long time to come.


----------



## wotthe

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				rockingham178 said:
			
		

> A lot of speculation going on about the last ann...



Not sure I know what you mean about the speculation ... can you fill me in?


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

There will also be a cap raising which is factual based on the ann...which is quite normal and I am sure this will be used to progress the Wyoming leases that have a Jorc compliant database.

The other is just plain unfounded bullsht that I am not going to support by posting....i.e. downramping pump and dump traders....they are being dealt with and will disappear as quick as they arrived in the last couple of days.

cheers
rock


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

The new aquisitions of PEN are slowing gaining some attention. 

"The two advanced uranium projects, Karoo in South Africa and Sundance in Wyoming, USA, have potential for the definition of multiple uranium deposits. The dedicated uranium exploration team and focused funds provided by Peninsula which held A$4.5 million in cash at 31 December 2006, *will ensure rapid resource definition on the advanced stage uranium plays of Karoo and Sundance*." 
http://www.intierra.com/news.asp?news_id=9122 

Peninsula's US prize 
URANIUM punters will have to re-rate Peninsula Minerals now it has picked up ground in Wyoming and start comparing it with other locals looking for the metal in the uranium-friendly US. * The junior is punching in the same weight class as Xstate Resources (Arizona), WildHorse Energy (Wyoming) and Uranium King (Nevada and New Mexico). * Peninsula has bought the uranium portfolio formerly owned by PagMag Metals, which is now focused on copper and molybdenum. The deal also included greenfields tenements in Western Australia and South Australia, but Peninsula sees Wyoming as the prize. 
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21316055-18261,00.html


----------



## wotthe

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Things seem to have gone fairly quiet with PEN. Does that mean nothing is happening or is it just a wait until the acquisitions are formalised in April?


----------



## isiwin

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi All..I'm new to this forum.  PEN has been dropping quite a bit in the last few days,...do you think if this is something we need to worry about or is it just running its normal course....


----------



## wotthe

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				isiwin said:
			
		

> Hi All..I'm new to this forum.  PEN has been dropping quite a bit in the last few days,...do you think if this is something we need to worry about or is it just running its normal course....



That's pretty much what I was wondering ... wish I understood all the charting business ... guess that's another thing I need to learn


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				isiwin said:
			
		

> Hi All..I'm new to this forum.  PEN has been dropping quite a bit in the last few days,...do you think if this is something we need to worry about or is it just running its normal course....




IMO only...
This is from a few effects. 

First the obvious market conditions giving some nervous traders the jitters. Some have dumped a lot of shares and although I obviously can't confirm all,  I do know that some T+3 traders have dumped at the end of the day when the market was going down. Clearly they didn't want to have to pay for the shares or at least not too much.

Secondly if you watch the daily trading closely and I mean closely you will see this has been manipulated for approximately 6-8 weeks and definately the last 6weeks. I do watch PEN closely and each time PEN tries to break upward someone drops a very small parcel just below the sell order.

Add to that:
We now await...
The confirmation of the new aquisition and Jorc compliance of Wyoming (see previous posts).
The Cap raising noted in the last ann to expedite the PFS for the U development (you could only assume the target would be initially Wyoming, although Sth Africa [Balmoral] may also be included, as this has been indicated as advanced exploration)
And confirmation of the entire U portfolio being tranferred to PEN and shares issued to PMH.

Once all this is done you will see a change. IMO I believe any positive market movement you will see a change upward again anyway.

All my opinion based on what I have read and understood of PEN. For me this is all positive and will expedite PEN to a producer of U. Warwick Grigor has made it crystal clear publicly and to his peers in industry that they are serious about being in the U market and not just explorers.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

1 March


			
				kennas said:
			
		

> This was trending beautifully until the blip. Might be a little resistance here at 9 cents, but once it's through, back onto all time highs by the look. MACD is showing downward momentum which is understandable, but if the real correction doesn't eventuate then it will probably turn pretty quick. What a great run. Good work if you were on this a few months ago.



That resistance at 9 cents was more than just a bit...Tested it for 7 days and failed. Momentum lost at that point. Should be support now between 7 and 8 cents, but nothing on the chart is now saying upward momentum in the short term . Medium term, it's still gone from 3 cents to 9 cents in 5 months! Sorry, I do not know enough about the fundamentals to comment here, best to dyor blah blah...Also, the jury is still out on the correction at the moment. I still see some potential weekness to eventuate and have been trying to keep my finger off the buy button for the past 3 months. If you've a short term vision on anything at the moment, best be prepared to see some negative movement in the overall market.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Great potential but not a market darling this one. One of my 'BUY' watchlist though.

Was performing nicely, but still extremely volatile intraday, even when pushing 11c on the back of the general bull market. 

I can never pick where this stock will go. But strangely enough PEN appears to be acting sanely, (Kennas you've seen me griping about other small caps that have not succumbed to the recent blips at all)   .

There are no ann.s immediately pending for PEN so it's fallen victim to bear-market sentiment it seems. 

This will probably do well when everything else is failing, 2nd Qtr to mid-year.

Warwick Grigor travels the world finding U clients for his stocks. I think he's serious.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> (Kennas you've seen me griping about other small caps that have not succumbed to the recent blips at all)   .



Yep, I know what you mean, and there are others who get smashed disproportionally too. Perhaps t/a doesn't work on microcap explorers? Tech/a might disagree. I'm still learning.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I cannot find any background info about Sundance uranium project in Wyoming, USA. I cannot find it at PacMac's website, or ann. 

But suddenly, it becomes the No. 1 hype of uranium project in the merged company.

Anyone knows?


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Found it at Feb 7 ann.


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Has anyone got a valuation on this one based on their 50%-50% Joint venture with Summit?
Kind regards
Ang


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				Ang said:
			
		

> Has anyone got a valuation on this one based on their 50%-50% Joint venture with Summit?
> Kind regards
> Ang



They have a JV with SMM?


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> I cannot find any background info about Sundance uranium project in Wyoming, USA. I cannot find it at PacMac's website, or ann.
> 
> But suddenly, it becomes the No. 1 hype of uranium project in the merged company.
> 
> Anyone knows?




G'day mmmmining
The Sundance project is, as you say a little difficult to locate however the Powder River Basin area of Wyoming is a big part of what PEn is to aqquire. This is recognised as the No1 location for uranium in the US and it is all about to become PEN's.

The Sundance area is very easy to locate and is quite well populated and infrastructure is clearly in place. I haven't yet gone over the Powder River Basin leases as this will be difficult to pinpont where they are until they are announced in detail.

This is clearly starting to gain momentum but I am now of the opinion that until the due diligence is finalised and all of the U leases are secured formally by PEN we won't see any change in SP. IMO when this does occur a significant positive re-rating will occur, especially considering the Wyoming leases have a Jorc compliant database already in place as a part of this deal.

Past information....

Pacmag announcement, in part....
_source: http://www.pacmag.com.au/aurora/ass...nts 2007/6 Feb 07-Wyoming Uranium Project.pdf_
PACMAG SECURES WYOMING URANIUM DEPOSITS 
6 February 2007

PacMag Metals Ltd ("PacMag") are very pleased to report that the Company has secured the uranium mineral rights to in excess of 1000 acres of freehold land covering parts of the Sundance uranium project, including major portions of the Oshoto uranium deposits, and a further 1500 acres of state mineral leases covering along strike exploration potential in the north east Powder River Basin in Wyoming USA (Figure 1). Wyoming is host to several former and currently operating uranium mines owned by companies such as Cameco, Rio Tinto and Cogema.

The Sundance district hosts a significant amount of uranium mineralisation over a large area (35 kilometres by 8 kilometres). The roll front uranium mineralisation is hosted in several discrete deposits, and along the oxidation-reduction interfaces throughout the area. PacMag owns technical data covering the full extents of the roll front systems, whilst PacMag’s mineral rights, held through its wholly owned USA subsidiary Strata Energy Inc. comprise ~1000 acres of freehold land covering important parts of two of the Oshoto deposits, and a further 1500 acres of state mining leases covering portions of the projections of the roll fronts south of the deposits.



Another previous snippet out of interest........

"One thing can be predicted: this portfolio will add considerable credibility (and, no doubt, market value) to the company that clinches the deal."
Robin Bromby 
February 10, 2007 

WYOMING is the number one US state for uranium. It's where most of the country's yellowcake is produced. The world players - Cameco, Rio Tinto and Cogema - all mine there. 

And the hottest place of all is the Powder River Basin. This week PacMag Metals secured 607ha of state mineral leases in that basin along with other Wyoming uranium targets.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Keep in mind PEN will own 100% of these Wyoming U leases...no JV arrangements. If the market doesn't see value in this latest aquisition of PEN once it is finalised then I don't know what will...

Another snippet unrelated to PEN but information on the region and who else is exploring there. 

Uranerz Energy Corporation: Powder River Basin Drilling to Commence; Surface Use Agreement Signed
(JV btween BLR and Uranerz)
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060621/0137879.html


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This may help as well.
http://www.trans-america.ca/ARhome.asp?void=1&sPID=11&VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&linkid=58&T_ARID=20

Sundance, Wyoming

The 3,572 hectare Sundance uranium project is located about 322 kilometres northeast of Casper, Wyoming. 

In 1970, a joint venture between Nuclear Dynamics, Inc. and Bethlehem Steel Corporation, (NuBeth) acquired a land position in this area of approximately 40,460 hectares. Subsequent exploration led to the discovery of substantial zones of low grade uranium mineralization associated with an extensive system of roll fronts. An In-Situ leach pilot plant was constructed and successfully operated. The NuBeth joint venture drilled more than 5,000 exploration and development holes in the vicinity of the Sundance deposit, defining a new uranium district that has been estimated to contain several million pounds of uranium at a grade of approximately 0.05% U3O8.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Rock, Thanks for the info. Do you believe PEN will need to raise more money indicated in the ann? Logically, it will because of additional grounds need to cover.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> Rock, Thanks for the info. Do you believe PEN will need to raise more money indicated in the ann? Logically, it will because of additional grounds need to cover.




The cap raising obviously will occur (as in the last ann) and in this case is extremely positive IMO. This is as they have stated to rapidly progress the Wyoming and Sth African U leases.

As with all mine development they will need to raise further funding but how they do that I would have no idea. I am expecting that funding won't be a problem though, loads of eager large investors out there with significant $$$ to place into U, especially in the US and Sth Africa.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It could explain the sliding of share price. (share price manipulation?)


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> It could explain the sliding of share price. (share price manipulation?)




I strongly believe that is the case with PEN.

Couple that with 2 other facts:
1. market correction (panic driven selling)
2. Until due diligence is complete and the deal is sealed, it is not a done deal.

Once all the dots line back up, as I have stated previously I believe PEN will have a sustantial positive re-rating. If I am right (and I really believe I am with this) then the current sp provides extremely good value.

cheers
rock


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Let's me guess, the share placement price will be 6.8c per share, and 1 attached free option for every 3 shares with exercise price at 8c;

or 

1 for 3 right issue exercise price at 5c 

*
Just guess for fun, no insider info or fact*.

I guess they need $10m+


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> Let's me guess, the share placement price will be 6.8c per share, and 1 attached free option for every 3 shares with exercise price at 8c;
> 
> or
> 
> 1 for 3 right issue exercise price at 5c
> 
> *
> Just guess for fun, no insider info or fact*.
> 
> I guess they need $10m+




Rights issue???

I like that idea...I will top up nicely with that concept.


----------



## rockingham178

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

MMMMining

This is very close to where Sundance is according to all of the US Wyoming websites I have looked at. I have placed BLR location (as per BLR reports) as well for some perspective. Have to love Google Earth...if you haven't yet got it then get it.
cheers
rock


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> They have a JV with SMM?



sorry wrong stock, I was actually taking about NRL.
regards
ang


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

looking at the chart, looks like pen got support at 7.5c
will this be the turning point ?


----------



## sampson

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Nice finish to the day!
Up 10% after looking like it was doing nothing.
Anyone know if something is brewing with this stock, I mean short term?


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



			
				sampson said:
			
		

> Nice finish to the day!
> Up 10% after looking like it was doing nothing.
> Anyone know if something is brewing with this stock, I mean short term?



The buying was in the afternoon session, could be somthing happening in the United States.
ang


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

what is it with this stock looked good on Friday and today went cack to 7.6 cents. the Day traders must be having fun buying at 7.6 and selling at 8 cents.
Kind regards
Ang


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ang said:


> what is it with this stock looked good on Friday and today went cack to 7.6 cents. the Day traders must be having fun buying at 7.6 and selling at 8 cents.
> Kind regards
> Ang




Ang I think you have it right. PEN has been heavily knocked about by daytraders for some time. 

Time will tell what is occurring however PEN has so much excellent uranium ground in Sth Africa and Wyoming in the USA, PEN will move rapidly when all the announcements have come out displaying what they actually have.

Alos even PEN management will tell you they haven't been actively promoting PEN with brokers yet either. A little promotion will have a positive effect.


----------



## Rob_ee

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



rockingham178 said:


> Rights issue???
> 
> I like that idea...I will top up nicely with that concept.




Rock ... have you been "topping-up" here lately ??

There seems to be accumulation with this one over the past few days.
Only slight dip was yesterday when a small parcel was dropped in the 4pm auction.
Otherwise anything at 8c is being absorbed in large lots.

May be good news around the corner ?

Good luck

Rob


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Rob_ee said:


> Rock ... have you been "topping-up" here lately ??
> 
> There seems to be accumulation with this one over the past few days.
> Only slight dip was yesterday when a small parcel was dropped in the 4pm auction.
> Otherwise anything at 8c is being absorbed in large lots.
> 
> May be good news around the corner ?
> 
> Good luck
> 
> Rob




could be 8 cent placement with some options for exsisting shareholders
kind regards
ang


----------



## Rob_ee

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Well either the DT are setting this up again or some news will be released shortly

Sell side consistantly taken out in 500k lots ??

Rob


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Does anyone have any idea as to what is happening with PEN all of a sudden?

And to think I pulled my BUY at .076 

Are these guys gonna get a speeding ticket?


----------



## Rob_ee

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Either instos or some obscenely wealthy day traders are having a go.

2 min before close a 3mil+ buy order took out a few lines and massive line ups to buy in pre auction.

So my guess is we will all know what the fuss is about when the annoncement is released to the rest of us 

This actually came up as a buy on MS 3 days ago on successive higher lows and a few other things I have written in the formula.

NO I didn't buy 

Rob


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I am almost certain that a placement is imminent, maybe a SPP too.


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mmmmining said:


> I am almost certain that a placement is imminent, maybe a SPP too.




The type of buying today is no placemnt announcement. I would say a farm out arrangement in order not to dilute the current shareholding with an announcement of how big their discuvory would be.  Let's not speculate ramp up or down, unless we have got the some true hard facts or leeked roumor.
Kind reg 
Ang


----------



## Rob_ee

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ang said:


> The type of buying today is no placemnt announcement. I would say a farm out arrangement in order not to dilute the current shareholding with an announcement of how big their discuvory would be.  Let's not speculate ramp up or down, unless we have got the some true hard facts or leeked roumor.
> Kind reg
> Ang




When something goes up 20% in one day AND there is nothing released all one can do is speculate.
Have been watching this very closely since it came up as a buy 3 days ago in my MS exploration and to me This seems to have been accumulated strongly during that time with the breakaway today.

Can you elaborate a bit more Ang re the farm out thingy as its all new to an amateur beginer like me 

Rob


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I have a very good record on spotting share placement. I stick my neck out this time. Again, please be nice.

 It is very hard to say it is good thing or bad thing to have a placement. Read my post on uranium producers hopeful, actually, for uranium stock, the placement is very positive to SP.  It happened to ACB, UKL, UEQ,UXA....even ENR today.


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Rob_ee said:


> When something goes up 20% in one day AND there is nothing released all one can do is speculate.
> Have been watching this very closely since it came up as a buy 3 days ago in my MS exploration and to me This seems to have been accumulated strongly during that time with the breakaway today.
> 
> Can you elaborate a bit more Ang re the farm out thingy as its all new to an amateur beginer like me
> 
> Rob




Farm out is when another company comes in and sort of does a joint venture, by providing the capital and the profit sharing. This means no actual dilution of the share and the current shareholders benefit by still sharing in the profit if uranium is found but will spend far less in exploration and the risk is spread between the parties. Could be 50%-50% or other % shareing.
regards
ang


----------



## Jus

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mmmmining said:


> I have a very good record on spotting share placement. I stick my neck out this time. Again, please be nice.
> 
> It is very hard to say it is good thing or bad thing to have a placement. Read my post on uranium producers hopeful, actually, for uranium stock, the placement is very positive to SP.  It happened to ACB, UKL, UEQ,UXA....even ENR today.




Mate, I think you might be right. They are running out of cash and with so many exploration plans in hand they need to do it to inject the cash needed. Day traders don't like share placement but med/long term investors don't mind it as its a way to increase market capitalisation.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Jus said:


> Mate, I think you might be right. They are running out of cash and with so many exploration plans in hand they need to do it to inject the cash needed. Day traders don't like share placement but med/long term investors don't mind it as its a way to increase market capitalisation.




For uranium stocks, everybody like placement. Institutions like, because they can get it at discount (of course, they have to do the dirty job first, to bid up SP). Existing shareholders, you and me like it, because possible SPP. Even without SPP, we are still happy to see company get the money need, and we don't need to contribute. The more money raised the better. And SP continues to rise... Very bullish sector currently, and unusual.


----------



## Rob_ee

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks Ang for the explanation.

IF I were holding I would probably prefer a SP , that way no need to share IF a really good resource is found.

Rob


----------



## Mousie

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mmmmining said:


> Even without SPP, we are still happy to see company get the money need, and we don't need to contribute. The more money raised the better.




Not me, I prefer to contribute to *underwritten* SPPs so that:

1. If I don't contribute, the money will still get raised,

2. If I contribute, I get a nice profit.

I actually don't like share placements as they dilute the share capital without me, an existing shareholder, getting a piece of it.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Rob_ee said:


> Thanks Ang for the explanation.
> 
> IF I were holding I would probably prefer a SP , that way no need to share IF a really good resource is found.
> 
> Rob




Wasnt there similar or an even bigger spike Jan 2nd with no ann.
Be interesting to see what this one is about. Dang!


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Jus said:


> Mate, I think you might be right. They are running out of cash and with so many exploration plans in hand they need to do it to inject the cash needed. Day traders don't like share placement but med/long term investors don't mind it as its a way to increase market capitalisation.




Running out of cash?

Half Year Financial Report
$4.5m cash
Recording a nett profit of $437,960


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hang Seng, you think 4.5m is enough?

Look at WMT, they had $5m, spent half of it on roping in BHP and then implemented a placement for $25million.

$5m wouldnt even pay for exploration equipment across a few square kilometres.


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I don't understand the market depth this morning, it has gone mad  considering (at this time) I can find no announcement.  Do you have any explanation?


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Rob_ee said:


> Thanks Ang for the explanation.
> 
> IF I were holding I would probably prefer a SP , that way no need to share IF a really good resource is found.
> 
> Rob




Let me tell you by experience I used to own PNN and they brought in the Chinese, Sino as a type of farm out arrangement to raise money for exploration. I bought at 36 cents and sold @ $1.2 , damn it is now @2.05. So I would say the deal these guys hopefully are about to announce is a simmillar deal to PNN, however the deal will be with the USA partner. And I don't have an issue with farm outs as long as they structure them in our favour.
Kind regards
Ang


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Atomic5 said:


> Hang Seng, you think 4.5m is enough?
> 
> Look at WMT, they had $5m, spent half of it on roping in BHP and then implemented a placement for $25million.
> 
> $5m wouldnt even pay for exploration equipment across a few square kilometres.




I didn't suggest it was enough, I was querying the "running out of cash" view.

They definately will require further capital, I don't see this as a negative. How they do it is what I am interested in. I have a personal distaste for companies that do cap raisings in any form to the detriment/expense of shareholders. If it truly is a beneficial arrangement for all parties then good. If it is merely lining pockets of "sophisticated investors" at the expense of loyal shareholders then I get just a little annoyed. Recent examples of this have occurred and the market voted, with their feet.

I particularly dislike the giving of free options unless this is to existing shareholders via a cap raising, displaying some form of value and loyalty to shareholders. 

I am quietly confident that this will be positive.


----------



## Jus

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Holding well today, not a bad close @.091 Bring on the ann. and see this little beauty rocks.


----------



## AJ_

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

breached 11 cents (last high) hit 11.5 cents now in blue sky !!! 

PEN looking good !


----------



## sampson

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yes, I have been on PEN since 6.9c looking good now.


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

The majical 11.5 cents. Yes !! should open high tommorow with blue skys. My target price is 13.5 cents any one with any diiferent price.
Kind reg
Ang


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

At least 15c by end of month Labour confrence too allow u3o8 mining completion of PMH assets all good in my opinion maybe even a wyoming JORC


----------



## daaussie

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I saw some big share purchases today, one person bought 8 million shares at 11 cents, that's about $880,000 according to my calculations. That was enough for me to buy.
It has gone through all profit takers, now we see tomorrow. I hope 14.5 cents. 

Anyone think it will do what WMT did?


----------



## Halba

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Be careful. My research indicates low resources, only 1100t deposits in South Africa, and small resources in the USA. Until they prove sizeable bigger deposits then I won't be interested. Mkt value over 70 million already fully diluted.


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Halba said:


> Be careful. My research indicates low resources, only 1100t deposits in South Africa, and small resources in the USA. Until they prove sizeable bigger deposits then I won't be interested. Mkt value over 70 million already fully diluted.




How can you substantiate such a statement??
reg
Ang


----------



## Jimminy

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Halba said:


> Be careful. My research indicates low resources, only 1100t deposits in South Africa, and small resources in the USA. Until they prove sizeable bigger deposits then I won't be interested. Mkt value over 70 million already fully diluted.




bit like BLR and Taylor Ranch.....they  had 2-3m/lb estimate on it originally. Now it is 15-20m/lb resource target in Wyoming with possible extensions.

If you think they have a potentially low resource Halba I would be suggesting you think the opposite of how you are thinking. See the good in the bad.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ang said:


> How can you substantiate such a statement??
> reg
> Ang



Ang, if this is incorrect, then what does your analysis point to? It's an open forum here and everyone can put up their own analysis to be scrutinised by anyone else. Maybe Halba is right.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> Ang, if this is incorrect, then what does your analysis point to? It's an open forum here and everyone can put up their own analysis to be scrutinised by anyone else. Maybe Halba is right.




Come on, Kennas, Ang did not talk about the resources. It is Halba's statement about "small resources in USA". I believe Ang's question is fair, and Halba should tell us how much it is.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mmmmining said:


> Come on, Kennas, Ang did not talk about the resources. It is Halba's statement about "small resources in USA". I believe Ang's question is fair, and Halba should tell us how much it is.



I agree. Let's see both provide some analysis instead of vague claims against each others position. As I said, this is a two way street here. A forum for sharing information.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> I agree. Let's see both provide some analysis instead of vague claims against each others position. As I said, this is a two way street here. A forum for sharing information.




This is fair. Based on my estimate, property in USA has minimum 5mlb. It is ISR type.


----------



## Ang

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Ok Kennas sorry for the late reply haven't been on the forum to much money to be made trading the U stocks. I wasn't having a go, however , like my other fellow forum friends have stated if you are basing your "statement" on an article or somthing point it out to us so we can substatiate your claims. From a analystical point of view it is interesting that it broke 11 cents yesturday to 11.5 cents and didn't go on from there this morning. May do somthing in the dutch auction tonight. It just reminds me of WMT when it was at a simillar price and did exactly what PEN did today, however closed lower, then the next day it went to 13- 14 cents. I am going to follow the 21,55 moving average on this one as if i did this with WMT I would still be in there today at 35 cents. 
kind reg
ang


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Typical big 20% rise followed by a day 20% fall. how annoying, this share was looking so good.


----------



## Nathan_b

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Just picked up 15000 shares at 10cents. They have got news about the USA acquisition. Hope to see these rise over next couple of weeks.


----------



## pennystock

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Fellow Traders

What's everybody's thought's on the share placement announced today and what impact will it have on the share price do you think?

Regards

Pennystock


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It can't be bad imo for 2 reasons:

1. new placement is created to acquire more assets with more potential income, so this is not a dilution as the higher number of shares come at a higher value of assets but after acquisition it will mean more potential. its totally different from a normal non-asset dilution because if more shares where issued to pay for expenses or for current project (not new ones) then usually that means lower value per share.

2. New placement is coming at a nice return, which will mean that whoever will take advanatage of it (whether shareholders or the so called sophisticated investors) will have great interest in increasing the share price or at least keeping it at a certain level to guarantee their profit. What also could be really interesting, if placement came at a certain ratio, for instance for each 10 shares held 1 x 6c could be bought, in that case, a race to get more of PEN's share will commence to get more of the cheap shares which will have to push SP higher.

Today's panic is expected & I find it normal, last 2 days had big number of punters working on the few hours/days trade to get easy money. Now, these guys panic easily & get whatever they can for their money on the first sign of danger, they didn't actually notice that the dilution means more assets not only more share & more potential....which in a perfect/non-traders world should increase SP because the more potential.

this one needs to relax for few days until more details of dates of EGM & placement come out then the heat will start.

DYL done it all in 48 hours into 3 folds on exactly same circumstances! I'm not saying they're the same, I'm just saying it can't be bad but we'll all find out how good it will be in the coming days.

cheers,


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

The market depth on this one is so one-sided it's not funny. Unless massive parcels get purchased soon I see this share falling in the short term. There is no where near anough buyers out there at the present to push this share back up to .115.


----------



## Mirage2003

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi all

Is the correction going on? Is the placement too small that can't meet the expectation of the market?


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

They just released their notice of AGM for the 21st May at 1 pm in Perth.  Seemed to be seeking approval for an awful lot of shares to be released on to the market. The one below and others
ordinary resolution:
“That, for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 7.4 and for all other purposes,
Shareholders ratify the allotment and issue of 50,000,000 Shares at an issue price of 4.8 cents per Share pursuant to a placement (Placement) on the terms and conditions set out in the Explanatory Statement.”


----------



## MattB

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

50million shares at 4.8cents...  is this an indication to a price drop in PEN?  It has been slowly falling the last week...   does an influx of 50million shares at 1/2 the price of the stock now reduce the worth of the shares we hold? 

I'm very new to trading and the stock market, so a lot of things are still very confusing!  

Cheers


----------



## IGO4IT

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



MattB said:


> 50million shares at 4.8cents...  is this an indication to a price drop in PEN?  It has been slowly falling the last week...   does an influx of 50million shares at 1/2 the price of the stock now reduce the worth of the shares we hold?
> 
> I'm very new to trading and the stock market, so a lot of things are still very confusing!
> 
> Cheers




The question you always need to ask is if issuing new shares for just spending on normal expenses or to get (acquire) new assets? In PEN's case, it's to acquire new assets.

In PEN's case imo, issuing shares is exactly the same like you borrowing money to buy a new business. Will you be richer or poorer if you decided to borrow money to buy a new business?? Definitely you'll have a loan on your back, but also you'll have a brand new source of income that is once acquired should make you richer. 

That's only my opinion & pls DYOR.

cheers,


----------



## thierry

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Anyone care to do tech analysis of this stock..

It hasn't been doing much in the last few days..just dipping down a little bit. 

Thanks


----------



## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



thierry said:


> Anyone care to do tech analysis of this stock..
> 
> It hasn't been doing much in the last few days..just dipping down a little bit.
> 
> Thanks




Hi Thierry.

With PEN the breakout last time looked promising (big white candle) but the momentum could not be sustained. A weak opened the next day (gap down) basically killed the move.

What i usually do with these ones is buy a 1/2 parcel on the breakout and half after the bounce on the pullback.

What we like to see here is a breakout on volume, maybe 1-2 white candles to bring it to maybe 12-13c, but the pullback to hold 10.5-11. 10.5 especially looks to be strong resistance with this one.

If it consolidates a bit longer in the 9.5-10c region than could make for an ascending triangle, a powerful bullish pattern. In fact, some would argue the ascending triangle pattern is already in play. For reference, MPO recently broke out of an ascending triangle.

Charts attached.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Just waitng on the PMH deal too be done and dusted on 16 th then we will see some action.
Great company great future.


----------



## thierry

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Nizar,

Thanks for the tech anlaysis.. looks promising, and with the ann on the 16th.. should see some movement in the stock.. hopefully for the better


----------



## ongchuan

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Can anyone please do the TA for PEN? It seems that the SP has been down for quite some time and I think it will be heading north very soon. Just need to chart to confirm the entry price. They have pretty good fundamentals with lots of U projects going around. Should be a good one. SP may fliy like MLS soon I guess.


----------



## camaybay

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Friday close chart. As Lucky_Country said when the PMH deal is done and dusted then maybe we will see some action. The support level was selected by the cat, Friday night ,it's his turn. I hope this helps I'm looking for an entry level ATM   
Cheers 
DYOR


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Think the deal goes through next week by memorygreat tennament just a few too many shares for my liking.
Hoping Wyoming jorc is quick and easy maybe a deal with an opertating mill to treat PEN uranium good for cashflow and media too be up and running


----------



## Ruprect

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Might see some interesting movement with PEN over the next couple of days. Annual General Meeting is on Monday, where they will approve the PACMAG deal and the shareholder placement, one share for 10 held at 6cents, plus 1 free option for every 10 held, (ex price 10 cents, expiry June 2010).


----------



## Ruprect

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Announcement out regarding presentation at the Extraordianry General meeting today. Gives a good breakdown of the projects and JV's Pen are involved with. Most importantly at this stage the aquisition of the prospective Uranium sites in Wyoming,USA.

Also confirms the share placement, 1 for 10 held at 6c and free options, 2010 expiry. Not a bad discount to the share price, but unsure yet when the cutoff will be.

Decent although not huge volume so far today, up to 8.9cents, hit a high of 9.2c.


----------



## Nathan_b

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Jeu every1, just thought id ask a (simple) question. i have recently aquired a parcel of PEN 6-8 weeks ago. i noticed talk that the shares are being diluted or bring out more shares at 6c per 10 owned, how do i get my shares? what is the process? also what is the free option they have?

thanks for your help. 
btw this was my first share purchase.


----------



## Ruprect

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Nathan_b said:


> Jeu every1, just thought id ask a (simple) question. i have recently aquired a parcel of PEN 6-8 weeks ago. i noticed talk that the shares are being diluted or bring out more shares at 6c per 10 owned, how do i get my shares? what is the process? also what is the free option they have?
> 
> thanks for your help.
> btw this was my first share purchase.




Hi Nathan

Its a share placement to continue exploration, so while its a dilution, its postive imo.

They should announce the placement shortly, which will say basicly that those who are registered shareholders as of a certain date will be able to participate in the offer. The date will be in the future, so you will be sent a form which will give you the right to purchase. You just send them back a cheque or bpay it, and that should be it. Its probably likely that you will be able to apply for more than your entitlement (1 for 10), if there is any shortfall. 

The option will be the same, 1 for 10, giving you the right to purchase a PEN share for 10 cents for every option held, before 2010. That should be tradeable on market a few weeks after the new shares have been issued i think. Therefore, while you are getting value by buying a share in PEN at a discount to its current price, you will also get an option which will have value on the market. Im not going to predict a price for the options, but if pen holds firm in the 8-10cent range, an option in the 1-2 cent range wouldnt be surprising. Thats just based on similar options with similar expiry dates. 

Hope this helps.


----------



## Nathan_b

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hey Ruprect,

Thankyou for your great response. How would i register with the company?

regards nathan


----------



## Ruprect

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

No probs Nathan.

As a holder you should already be registered. That happens a few days after you purchase the share.

I'll personally be looking forward to getting some more options on the market. I think the latest aquisitions are extremely positive for this company.


----------



## ctlaltdelesc

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I am thinking to buy PEN. What is a good price for this share?
Maybe just wait until this turn around.
ANyone know why keep dropping recently?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



ctlaltdelesc said:


> I am thinking to buy PEN. What is a good price for this share?
> Maybe just wait until this turn around.
> ANyone know why keep dropping recently?



This has trippled in the past 6 months, so it's not really dropping 'recently' depending on your time frame. If you have a one month time frame then yes it's dropped a little from it's high of 11 cents. Still, not much in the scheme of things. Perhaps you should have a look back through their anns and see why it rose in the first place and if there's been any new info, or a lack of info. Perhaps it was just day traders driving the stock and they've all moved to something else....Tell me, why are you interested in PEN? Cheers, kennas


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN: may be having some large "corporate" buying come into play. This is from a technical perspective. But if i am right we may see a large bullish move within the next month.


----------



## Ruprect

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Annoucement out last night re offering to holders. 1 for 10 shares held can be purchased at 6cents, plus one free option, ex 2010, 10c. 

Holders must be registered as of next thursday, but goes ex entitlement as of today. Ie, if you want in, you must purchase by close *today.*

Currently trading in the mid .08's, so its quite a discount. The option is also quite attractive.


----------



## vvguru

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ruprect said:


> Annoucement out last night re offering to holders. 1 for 10 shares held can be purchased at 6cents, plus one free option, ex 2010, 10c.
> 
> Holders must be registered as of next thursday, but goes ex entitlement as of today. Ie, if you want in, you must purchase by close *today.*
> 
> Currently trading in the mid .08's, so its quite a discount. The option is also quite attractive.




thanks Ruprect. 

min subcription $3,000,000, whats that supposed to mean? i got 100,000 shares,  will i miss out on this? 
and how can i get myself registered? Will computershare post me a mail to remind me etc...?

cheers.


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



vvguru said:


> thanks Ruprect. min subcription 3,000,000 shares i only got 100,000 shares, does that mean i have to miss out on this? and how can i get myself registered?
> Will computershare post me a mail to remind me etc...?
> 
> cheers.




briefly looking at the ann. it seems that we do not need 3 million to have the entitlement, could not see it though....I might be wrong


----------



## camaybay

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Copy of ann for info.  hold and hope that this entry to U will generate increased action. If it does then definately worth take up. I hope there is an application form for short fall take up.
DYOR
(Do Your Own Research) = disclaimer: for the FNT thread (holder)


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

what a dog of a share. If it cant take advantege of a booming industry what chance does this piece of @$%! have.


----------



## Ruprect

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Tye said:


> what a dog of a share. If it cant take advantege of a booming industry what chance does this piece of @$%! have.




Tye, it went ex entitlement as of last Thursday. Ability for holders at that date to buy in 1 for 10 shares held for 6 cents, plus 1 free option for 10 shares held. A pullback in the short term after that is to be expected. If the fundamentals are ok, (and i think they are) then it should recover. Keep in mind that the new share offer is to fund exploration of their uranium sites, primarily in Wyoming. 

It was trading in the 2-3c range last november, a 7.6c share price isnt too bad!


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

let's hope so. the problem i see at the moment is pretty much all the uranium and possible uranium shares are falling now. It looks like they are all getting to expensive. I was just venting as i hold a few U shares.


----------



## Nathan_b

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hey everyone... 
looks like this lil feller is going for a runner again. everyone must be getting in to try and get their free options and cheap new issues....


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Finishing the day with a positive 9.1 cents.  Agree many increasing their shares to receive the entitlements.


----------



## sting

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

If they bought today for the entitlements then they are sadly mislead the EX date was 07 JUN 07, after this date you dont get anything.

So bad luck to those who read and acted upon the above advise.

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Just wanted to quote from the letter in my hand

Notice in relation to Entitlement Issue despatched to Shareholders    6 June
Securities quoted Ex entitlement                                                 7 June
Record date for determining entitlements                                    14 June
Prospectus despatched to Shareholders                                      20 June
Closing date of Offer                                                                5 July
Allotment and despatch of holding statements                             12 July


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

One other quote from the 6th June Letter.

"...a non-renounceable entitlement issue of one (1) fully paid ordinary Share with one (1) free attaching Option for every ten (10) Shares held by Shareholders registered at 5.00pm, (WST) on 14 June 2007 at an issue price of 6 cents per Share ("Entitlement Issue").  The options are exercisable at 10 cents per option on or before 30 June 2010."

Hope this clears up a few things.


----------



## sting

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

:behead: Securities quoted Ex entitlement 7 June :behead:

Pure CoCo the above is the line from youe extract that says it all. once it goes "EX" the purchaser is not entitled it is a bit ambigious I know what they have done is used the 7th as a cut off day and allowed 7 days to get the chess transferals.... remember that in those 7 days are 2 days of a weekend as well as a public holiday leaving the 4 days.

If you dont believe me check with your broker all this false info has done is ramped up the price of holders on the 7th who will get the offer to unload at an inflated price as with most rights issues the SP drops after the date

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



sting said:


> :behead: Securities quoted Ex entitlement 7 June :behead:
> 
> Pure CoCo the above is the line from youe extract that says it all. once it goes "EX" the purchaser is not entitled it is a bit ambigious I know what they have done is used the 7th as a cut off day and allowed 7 days to get the chess transferals.... remember that in those 7 days are 2 days of a weekend as well as a public holiday leaving the 4 days.
> 
> If you dont believe me check with your broker all this false info has done is ramped up the price of holders on the 7th who will get the offer to unload at an inflated price as with most rights issues the SP drops after the date
> 
> SEMPER UBI SUB UBI





I don't believe I ramped anything.  

I was quoting from the actual letter I had in my hand I received dated the 6th June 07.  My shares were purchased MONTHS before.  I have been watching of late the price. 

I also find this a realitively cheap stock price for their land holdings etc. BUT those are my thoughts. All stocks have their cycle - I am a long term holder - I accept the prices going up and down.  

If you thought it was imperative to warn all of your thoughts why didn't you do it eariler but come in after close on the 14th June? Do you have the actual letter?


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I know its early in the day but "damn" the bullishness looks like it has diminished already. it always seem to happen with this share.  large rise followed by a correction wiping out the days move before.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Tye said:


> I know its early in the day but "damn" the bullishness looks like it has diminished already. it always seem to happen with this share.  large rise followed by a correction wiping out the days move before.




Yeh poor market sentiment towards the whole uranium sector.

My last holding in this sector was BLR -- i saw the same thing, which is why i sold out at .24 (my stop was hit). Whenever it wen up, it would get dumped. And sell side always stacked.

Same thing with PEN and even WMT.

Former champion stocks. Now the tide has turned and no1 wants them.


----------



## sting

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Nathan_b said:


> Hey everyone...
> looks like this lil feller is going for a runner again. everyone must be getting in to try and get their free options and cheap new issues....





PureCoCo my post was in regard to nathan's post above which was posted just prior to my first post on the matter I didnt want ppl to think that they could still buy them on 14th and get the issue/option. Thats why I didnt post it earlier as I didnt think there was a need to. 

Then after my post you responded and it looked like you were backing up nathan.

And yes I do have the letter as I am a holder and yes it is confusing and some ppl in this thread possiblely needed clarification as I also when first reading it assumed I could buy more up till the 14th. It wasnt until you read the timeline below that you pick the fault in the first para.

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Do you think that it is all over for the small uranium companies like this one.
9/10 uranium companies are falling like a rock now. Is there just to many of them now? Has PEN got anything left or was it just one of those frenzy buying we saw with all the small uranium companies. I am interested in how you guys view this share in particular.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Think the price got overinflated with the spp issues up for grabs just taking a breather once all the spp issues are dealt with we may see some news on there plans for there leases


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

By the way PEN is going it's going to be 0.00 by the end of the year. I have to say there is no point in buying a piece of crap mining share, they just dont do anything apart from fall. And yes I know it up from its very low but some people bought them at a higher price including me. There are just way too many shares.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Tye said:


> By the way PEN is going it's going to be 0.00 by the end of the year. I have to say there is no point in buying a piece of crap mining share, they just dont do anything apart from fall. And yes I know it up from its very low but some people bought them at a higher price including me. There are just way too many shares.



Tye, sorry if you have explained your analysis before, but you can't just bag a stock here without giving some justification. Is it purely on the sp? If so, the stock has trippled in 9 months!! Please try to provide more detail in your negative comments in the future. Cheers! kennas

(not holding)


----------



## Nathan_b

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hahaha tye, yeh I feel ya mate, feels like it will be like NWT soon.
.0005

It does feel as if share is getting diuted with new share issue and falling SP.


----------



## MattB

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

hi,
I have a question about the recent options.

If the exercise price of a PENO share is 0.10 then why are they currently trading around the 0.035 price?  So, that's a 0.04 difference to PEN, but the exercise cost of a PENO is 0.10, which doesn't seem worth it?

I would have thought that the PEN options would currently be close 0.00 whilst the exercise cost is larger than simply purchasing PEN?  ...or, there may be some positive moves coming up that will make the PEN - PENO difference more than the exercise price?  ....still learning about how options work! 

Cheers!


----------



## Tye

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

What diid i say about PEN going nothing but down.
Screw this Trading game you may aswell enjoy you money while you have it!
I dont give a rats. You dont agree then tell me.....how much have you made this year. Because even all the profetional fund managers are in the red this year. You may aswell through your money down the drain or give it to me!


----------



## Techbuy

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Tye said:


> What diid i say about PEN going nothing but down.
> Screw this Trading game you may aswell enjoy you money while you have it!
> I dont give a rats. You dont agree then tell me.....how much have you made this year. Because even all the profetional fund managers are in the red this year. You may aswell through your money down the drain or give it to me!




It Just depends on how well you mange your investing Tye.
My portfolio is down along with everybody else but it you have been "trading" then you should have been in and out taking profits and should still be nicely in front despite this drop.
Trading is not a game and should never be treated as one, you need to treat it like a real business and take profits where you can and not have all your capital exposed to the market. then drops like this will wipe out the value of your share you currently hold and if you have watched your trading you will still be in front with your cash component.


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

strong buy volume, since two days ago.
today high at 6.4c
rebound from the low 3.6c.
looks good on the chart wise.
any idea of trend reversal ?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

High grade gold initial results and drilling program commenced in Tanzania.

This could be just what the Dr ordered for PEN and trading has just begun to pick up in volume and sp.

Enough for me to place some capital back into the market.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> High grade gold initial results and drilling program commenced in Tanzania.
> 
> This could be just what the Dr ordered for PEN and trading has just begun to pick up in volume and sp.
> 
> Enough for me to place some capital back into the market.




And so glad I did. PEN is gaining much deserved attention after trading in a tight band. Watch this stock closely over coming weeks, excellent volume throughput today.


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> And so glad I did. PEN is gaining much deserved attention after trading in a tight band. Watch this stock closely over coming weeks, excellent volume throughput today.




Extremely tight Bollinger bands are about to let fly here. About time too been holding half for 12 months now and topped up in the high 4cents last month. Have been very patient with this one looks like that patience is about to be rewarded.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mickqld said:


> Extremely tight Bollinger bands are about to let fly here. About time too been holding half for 12 months now and topped up in the high 4cents last month. Have been very patient with this one looks like that patience is about to be rewarded.




I think so Mick, PEN is now getting very close to a potential breakout. Not yet but the trading pattern is indicating it is near.

I think announcements may be coming re the recently aquired US leases. This could be what is occurring. 

Good luck, I have a few of these tucked away.


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

strong movement lately due to uranium spot price.
looking good at the chart as well.
last weekl most buyers at 5.5c - 5.7c.
need to clean out 5.9c-6c resistance before break out.
good luck to all holders.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



powerkoala said:


> strong movement lately due to uranium spot price.
> looking good at the chart as well.
> last weekl most buyers at 5.5c - 5.7c.
> need to clean out 5.9c-6c resistance before break out.
> good luck to all holders.




Slowly all coming together and hasn't patience been required. PEN just has so much positive to report in coming months and all will finally be revealed. 

This is a stock I simply had to have.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mickqld said:


> Extremely tight Bollinger bands are about to let fly here. About time too been holding half for 12 months now and topped up in the high 4cents last month. Have been very patient with this one looks like that patience is about to be rewarded.




All coming together now Mick, PEN is slowly but surely progressing. With the potential they have in uranium resource size and the inevitable increase in uranium price it isn't really surprising. My investment strategy is simple but effective and I am very patient, PEN is meeting my expectations. 

By the way are you from Qld or is the qld something else?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> All coming together now Mick, PEN is slowly but surely progressing. With the potential they have in uranium resource size and the inevitable increase in uranium price it isn't really surprising. My investment strategy is simple but effective and I am very patient, PEN is meeting my expectations.
> 
> By the way are you from Qld or is the qld something else?




Announcement out.

Discontinuation of the Tanzanian Gold JV due to poor results.

My simple summary of this is intially dissappointing the gold didn't eventuate in this JV but this can only be positive as they are focussing more on what they have termed "advanced Uranaium projects in Wyoming and South Africa"

I love that term "advanced", also used by Far East Capital in reference to the USA Wyoming Sundance project.

For me I take this as a positive move in recognising early that Tanzanian JV was not worth pursuing. Protection of valuable capital.

Let's see how this pans out now.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN going no where doing nothing very frustrating.
Too many projects concentrate on sundance.
Really need some long overdue news imo


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Lucky_Country said:


> PEN going no where doing nothing very frustrating.
> Too many projects concentrate on sundance.
> Really need some long overdue news imo




That's exactly what they have stated and why I was positive about this announcement.

You are right, until positive news of Sundance and/or Sth Africa occurs on the Uranium focus it is unlikely to move a great deal. Raki Raki does seem positive but it will need to be good after this announcement to make a difference to the sp.

I do believe technical support ahs been found.

I await Wyoming.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hangseng my initial response was that it was dissappointing however on reflection I agree that ir is a positive step-cut your losses and move on to the next more promising project.Still think that initial response will be negative come Monday


----------



## Georgeb

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I am happy they have decided not to proceed with the JV gold project in Tanzania if the resource is small. It is better they have identified this early in the process rather than later.

This year has been a bad year for most Uranium stocks and PEN is no different. I hold and will continue to hold as we need to ride out the slump in this sector as the good times will be back in the nect 6-18 months.

I have no issue holding as I know in the long temr the Uranium sector will appreciate.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN held up very well today.

The market is in strife at present, however PEN remained strongly at support. It seems the market has supported the latest information otherwise it would have gone down accordingly.

Good to see.


----------



## Nathan_b

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

i have been holding these fellas for a while now. got in at 9cents.

was thinking of flicking them as they are goig nowhere. just looking at the prospects of the business though it appears it is positioned well. now i was thinking perhaps purchasing another 2k or so at current SP.

how do we think this one will perform in 2008?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Nathan_b said:


> i have been holding these fellas for a while now. got in at 9cents.
> 
> was thinking of flicking them as they are goig nowhere. just looking at the prospects of the business though it appears it is positioned well. now i was thinking perhaps purchasing another 2k or so at current SP.
> 
> how do we think this one will perform in 2008?




I am confident PEN will perfom in 2008. They have accessed hard copy paper data of over 5,000,000 metres of drilling results previously conducted in addition to the leaseholds from Pacmag. They are currently processing this data into electronic form to proceed to Jorc compliance.

With this amount drilling previously conducted PEN won't have to spend expansive amounts to prove up the resource. Imagine what it would have cost to drill 5,000,000 metres in todays money.

Results of this according to PEN will be available in the 2nd quarter of 2008.

I would doubt you will ever get another chance to buy PEN at these prices once this data is out. Expect an update on this in Jan when the quarterly report comes out.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

A list of historical mine locations in Oshoto and Sundance.

Remains to be seen what of these will be PEN's if any but interestingly PEN have a significant leases/land area in the region so it is highly probable that either some or all of these mines will/are PEN's.


----------



## ideaforlife

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks for the research Hangseng, I almost contemplate of disposing it at a loss. . Now perhaps I'll buy bit more


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



ideaforlife said:


> Thanks for the research Hangseng, I almost contemplate of disposing it at a loss. . Now perhaps I'll buy bit more




All looks positive (apart from the sp) but take care. The current market conditions are not conducive to taking risks. I do like PEN but it is a speculative stock and speccies are clearly not in favour at present.

Risk/reward is high with PEN and the returns potentially very high on positive news of Wyoming (which I am convinced is coming), but not without risk in the current market.

Happy New Year my friend.


----------



## Nathan_b

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Looks like this dog keeps falling without any announcements.

Anyone have anymore thoughts out there?


----------



## Georgeb

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This has not moved up for at least 12months, in fact it has gone down. This is starting to remind me of AEX.

Can anyone see the light at the end of the tunnel?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It is very possible the tide is about to turn for PEN.

PEN has held strongly at 2c for some time and has now had almost 40 million shares traded in the last couple of trading days. Very strong buying at 3c and 3.1c.

A little speeding ticket to go with it today I see.

$7.9m cash, no debt and looking like heading to early production in the US. Let's see what the next report brings.


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> It is very possible the tide is about to turn for PEN.
> 
> PEN has held strongly at 2c for some time and has now had almost 40 million shares traded in the last couple of trading days. Very strong buying at 3c and 3.1c.
> 
> A little speeding ticket to go with it today I see.
> 
> $7.9m cash, no debt and looking like heading to early production in the US. Let's see what the next report brings.




It seems in the latest April report from Far East Capital they have re-rated PEN from  "advanced explorer" to "potential producer". Thanks to DHUY on hotcopper for that information.
That may explain the sudden volume rise over the last couple of trading days. Hopefully happy days in Wyoming are ahead for PEN.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mickqld said:


> It seems in the latest April report from Far East Capital they have re-rated PEN from  "advanced explorer" to "potential producer". Thanks to DHUY on hotcopper for that information.
> That may explain the sudden volume rise over the last couple of trading days. Hopefully happy days in Wyoming are ahead for PEN.




It seems nobody has read the report. They definately should especially if PEN or AGS are on your radars.

The report on both of them is glowing to state the least.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This could have added to the sudden big move on PEN last week.

May 2, 2008  
Investing in Uranium
Three Ways to Invest in Uranium Now, Before Prices "Go Nuclear"
An Investment U White Paper Report
By Mike Gimignani and the Investment U Research Team
http://www.investmentu.com/research/uranium-investing.html


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Looks like we are the only ones bullish on PEN here Hangseng. Just loved the review from Far  East Capital on PEN. Basically rating it their top bargain buy at the moment.
Quote.."If PEN can confirm that its Wyoming target is realistic, at a
minimum grade of 500 ppm, it could be sitting on a very profitable project."

and.."This is one of the best value uranium stocks, but there is a
higher risk as we are still awaiting the release on JORC compliant resources."
Just salivating at PEN's prospects at the moment just wish I had topped up more at the 2cent mark.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mickqld said:


> Looks like we are the only ones bullish on PEN here Hangseng. Just loved the review from Far  East Capital on PEN. Basically rating it their top bargain buy at the moment.
> Quote.."If PEN can confirm that its Wyoming target is realistic, at a
> minimum grade of 500 ppm, it could be sitting on a very profitable project."
> 
> and.."This is one of the best value uranium stocks, but there is a
> higher risk as we are still awaiting the release on JORC compliant resources."
> Just salivating at PEN's prospects at the moment just wish I had topped up more at the 2cent mark.




Mick I believe the positive outlook for PEN and uranium generally in the report was the original reason for the significant increase in volume over a few days  recently. I don't believe it will cease either, it only stalled once the rise caught the attention of the ASX with the speeding ticket.

I have topped up and now just wait for what I now believe is inevitable. Time will tell if I am right or not, however the risk/reward favours the positive side in a big way over medium term. All they have to do is announce the results of the historical data collation (which I believe is complete or near completion) and thereafter the Jorc results. 

The delay in the drilling I think is understandable considering all they have now managed to successfully to aquire. They now not only posses the historical drilling data they also have the complete ISL plant design plans and the successful rehab closeout from the previous mining operation. The latter being imperative to successful environmental approvals, which now is a fait accompli IMO. My reasoning for this is that the USA wants more uranium and would rather have it mined and processed in the states. 

The obvious world market shortage has begun, with India being the first to come and and admit same today.  http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...as_hit_N-power_plants/articleshow/3008504.cms 
Add China, South Africa and the USA into this mix and you have a major supply/demand problem about to occur.

Short term I can't see this level lasting long at all. PEN is extremely well positioned to take advantage of what is seemingly going to be a run on uranium (read 'energy') stocks, that are either in production or which are likely to head into early production (PEN). Stocks like PEN that have an extremely low sp, exceptional prospects, cash and no debt will be sought after when the market finaly wakes up. The U price will get some obvious upward pressure due to supply/demand.

Interesting times ahead, I am literally banking on them being highly profitable as well now.


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Whats your take on Far East Capital saying they dont see the Uranium price increasing in the next 3 years and indeed they have a $50/lb projection in the 3-5 year longer term. From everything I am reading we are heading for an undersupply which should force the price up.


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Up 0.5 cents, 20% at moment buyers heavily outweighing sellers 21million to 12 million. Looks like the F.E.C report is sinking in. Hopefully this 2nd wave up after the initial burst last 2 weeks will provide a more solid platform to move forward SP wise.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mickqld said:


> Up 0.5 cents, 20% at moment buyers heavily outweighing sellers 21million to 12 million. Looks like the F.E.C report is sinking in. Hopefully this 2nd wave up after the initial burst last 2 weeks will provide a more solid platform to move forward SP wise.




Strong close at 3.6 Mick.

It seems PEN has gone completely under the radar here. The volumes going through literally speak volumes. PEN is getting stronger by the day.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mickqld said:


> Whats your take on Far East Capital saying they dont see the Uranium price increasing in the next 3 years and indeed they have a $50/lb projection in the 3-5 year longer term. From everything I am reading we are heading for an undersupply which should force the price up.




You also have that correct in my opinion. The next uranium surge is about to occur. Look at both AGS and ARU today. The sector has regained attention,  uranium and rare earths are going to run and it is being directed at the U/REE small caps. PEN is so undervalued it is amasing and someone seems to know it.

Love it or hate it, uranium is the next energy source and supply is already beginning to be a problem. I am not punting on this, I am investing on it.


----------



## Mirage2003

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Hangsang

I just want to mention that PEN always made the investor feel disappointed. So I am well prepared.

Regards


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> You also have that correct in my opinion. The next uranium surge is about to occur. Look at both AGS and ARU today. The sector has regained attention,  uranium and rare earths are going to run and it is being directed at the U/REE small caps. PEN is so undervalued it is amasing and someone seems to know it.
> 
> Love it or hate it, uranium is the next energy source and supply is already beginning to be a problem. I am not punting on this, I am investing on it.




So did anyone take notice?

PEN has broken out from the long term downtrend following high volume buying in the last 2 weeks. Resistance at 3.6 was blasted away on a gap up and lows were re-tested at 3. 

Today what I have waited for for so long, confirmation of the South African uranium potential.

PEN is so well placed now with Wyoming Lance project looking like early producing and now the South African leases to be expanded.

Oh by the way announcement just out.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Great day for PEN but still along way till Im even, but things are looking better.
Lance project and Karoo are great projects lets see the u308 price head north!


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> So did anyone take notice?
> 
> PEN has broken out from the long term downtrend following high volume buying in the last 2 weeks. Resistance at 3.6 was blasted away on a gap up and lows were re-tested at 3.
> 
> Today what I have waited for for so long, confirmation of the South African uranium potential.
> 
> PEN is so well placed now with Wyoming Lance project looking like early producing and now the South African leases to be expanded.
> 
> Oh by the way announcement just out.




yes hang, nice breakout but uranium still a wet blanket - everyone feels U should move up but it just doesn't
short report entitled "and you thought the price of uranium couldn't go lower"

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=C163F75A-1871-E587-E12C5B9CCDB6F06E


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



treefrog said:


> yes hang, nice breakout but uranium still a wet blanket - everyone feels U should move up but it just doesn't
> short report entitled "and you thought the price of uranium couldn't go lower"
> 
> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=C163F75A-1871-E587-E12C5B9CCDB6F06E




Uranium blanket is drying rapidly. Even the link you provided indicates higher U prices at around US$90/lb

"21 April, 2008 Analyst : Warwick Grigor (Far East Capital)
Nuclear Power Sentiment and Uranium Stock Markets Diverge

Fear and Panic in Equity Markets Have Created a Fantastic Buying Opportunity
Short Term Markets Out of Alignment With Long Term Outlook: Sentiment in uranium stocks, and the spot market for uranium, is out of alignment with the long-term outlook for nuclear power. Every week we are seeing strong statements of commitment to expanded nuclear power from all around the world. The case for investment in the sector is becoming increasingly more compelling. How long can we compress the sentiment spring before it
bounces back?"


----------



## enigmatic

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Have heard a few good things about PEN. Havent had much time to resource so i wont comment on the company itself but i do tend to agree with you about the drying up or uranium and the increase in prices although i do have the mindset that nearly everything will be heading up for the next 5-10 years.

I was interested that you placed ARU as a Uranium play. will have to talk to about that in ARU thread though.

will hopefully get to make a comment on PEN soon. Any helpfully information about the company would be great.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Announcement out, New York presentation.

PEN is on a roadshow it seems and the accumulation of PEN continues in volumes. Very pleased to have this firmly held in my portfolio , it seems someone else wants a lot of it in theirs.

Surely a substantial holder notice should be coming out. The traded volumes over the last few weeks has been outstanding.

Worth watching in my opinion, something seems to be brewing.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Liked their presentation just released and do think there is some serious upside to PEN.
Near term looks like its back on the radar but still need u308 to regain some of its price that has been hammered.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Lucky_Country said:


> Liked their presentation just released and do think there is some serious upside to PEN.
> Near term looks like its back on the radar but still need u308 to regain some of its price that has been hammered.




And that may be happening as we post.

With Uranium One cutting output due to mine problems, India in a panic over lack of supply, the USA China and South Africa all expanding nuclear power stations and the Cameco' flooded mine possibly never re-opening, all is pointing toward a major worldwide shortage of uranium. What happens when demand exceeds supply?

As Warwick Grigor of Far East Capital stated, the uranium price has actually been quite stable and steadily increased over the years. The only spike was in 2007. Will that happen again?

One thing is absolutely certain the reactors must have uranium and can't simply be shut down. Uranium demand is going to be immense and sustainable.

Hanseng has spoken 
(sorry just very confident of where this is heading)


----------



## martha

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi There
Whats everyones thoughts now? Looks to be stalling at the 4.5 level?




wait and see i guess!!


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



martha said:


> Hi There
> Whats everyones thoughts now? Looks to be stalling at the 4.5 level?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> wait and see i guess!!




Let's see what occurs out of the NY Hard Assets Conference May 12-13 brings. http://www.iiconf.com/pebble.asp?relid=62254

We should also here soon as to when the Jorc confirmation drilling is to commence on Lance Wyoming that was delayed from May.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Let's see what occurs out of the NY Hard Assets Conference May 12-13 brings. http://www.iiconf.com/pebble.asp?relid=62254
> 
> We should also here soon as to when the Jorc confirmation drilling is to commence on Lance Wyoming that was delayed from May.




Bit late to edit but here's the PEN presentation.
NEW YORK HARD ASSETS INVESTMENT CONFERENCE PRESENTATION
http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/doc...uY2UueWFob28uY29tL2FjYS9kZWxheWVkP3M9UEVOLkFY


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN is just getting better by the day and flying very low under the radar.

This won't last.

Announcement out, I will just highlight this abit just in case it isn't quite jelling what is going on in Wyoming 

My apologies for being so BOLD, however this company has me now quite excited. The potential gains here are significant and PEN just gets more attractive with every announcement. This one in particular I have been waiting for some time. It supports the FEC view that PEN is a potential early producer and the managements view that this is a "Brownfields" operational site and not a "Greenfields" new location.

22 May 2008

*PENINSULA ACQUIRES ADDITIONAL GROUND AT THE LANCE PROJECT, WYOMING USA CONTAINING KEY HISTORIC URANIUM MINERALISATION*
Highlights
• The Mineral Rights acquisition programme secures additional ground containing key historic uranium mineralisation at the Lance Project in
Wyoming, USA
• Total land holding now 12,905 acres
• *The newly acquired ground contains the site of the NuBeth ISR Pilot Plant
which operated successfully in 1978 and 1979*
• *The newly acquired ground also hosts 737 historic drill holes, 329 of which were mineralised and intersected multiple vertically stacked roll fronts*
• Best historic mineralisation in the newly acquired areas is SP-5V which intersected 2.7m (9ft) @ 0.248% eU3O8 with mineralised holes averaging
3.7m (12ft) @ 0.06% eU3O8
• Historic reports and testing shows that these mineralised sand units are of ideal thickness for and highly amenable to extraction using ISL methods


----------



## martha

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This announcement doesnt seem to be having much effect on the share price.....................................


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



martha said:


> This announcement doesnt seem to be having much effect on the share price.....................................




Quite simply because they don't understand the significance of it and of the Lance Project. I find this mind boggling to be quite frank, that it continues to fly under the market radar. 

It seems until the final drill results confirm Jorc then it will just hover around 3.6-4c or even drift a little lower.

As someone said some time ago, the market is always right. Even if it is wrong, it is still right.


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

" The Ross prospect is the most densely historically drilled prospect at the
Lance Project and mineralisation defined by historic drilling gives a projected
exploration target size at the Ross prospect alone of 6–8m lb U3O8 at target grades of
0.05-0.06% U3O81............. Over the other 12 prospects plus adjacent areas, the exploration target size potential
is 33-53m lb at an expected grade of 0.05-0.08% U3O81. This significant potential is
largely a result of the vertical stacking of the roll fronts which multiplies the chances
of mineralisation per km of strike length. The drill density between the prospects is very
low, and many of the holes that were drilled did not go deep enough to test the
deeper roll front positions."

Potentially 60 million lbs and they haven't drilled deep enough with the historic data to test the deeper roll fronts.
This just has enormous potential written all over it. Just keep reading and re-reading this Lance announcement. It gets better and better every time you read it. I am extremely excited about PEN's prospects here. :jump:


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

:jump:







mickqld said:


> " The Ross prospect is the most densely historically drilled prospect at the
> Lance Project and mineralisation defined by historic drilling gives a projected
> exploration target size at the Ross prospect alone of 6–8m lb U3O8 at target grades of
> 0.05-0.06% U3O81............. Over the other 12 prospects plus adjacent areas, the exploration target size potential
> is 33-53m lb at an expected grade of 0.05-0.08% U3O81. This significant potential is
> largely a result of the vertical stacking of the roll fronts which multiplies the chances
> of mineralisation per km of strike length. The drill density between the prospects is very
> low, and many of the holes that were drilled did not go deep enough to test the
> deeper roll front positions."
> 
> Potentially 60 million lbs and they haven't drilled deep enough with the historic data to test the deeper roll fronts.
> This just has enormous potential written all over it. Just keep reading and re-reading this Lance announcement. It gets better and better every time you read it. I am extremely excited about PEN's prospects here. :jump:




Mick may I say well done. Finally someone who can read and cleary comprehend.

I have stated my case many times on PEN and I am of no doubt now as to what this project potentially offers. It won't take long now as they only require minimal infill drilling to confirm Jorc due to the extensive historic data they now own and have collated.

PEN is exciting me no end now and I am with you 100% :jump: :jump:


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Will PEN be the next U308 producer from Aus ?
With the Lance project moving rapidly, the US wanting more U308 production from their soils PEN must have to be in a great position for a near term producer.


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Lucky_Country said:


> Will PEN be the next U308 producer from Aus ?
> With the Lance project moving rapidly, the US wanting more U308 production from their soils PEN must have to be in a great position for a near term producer.




I dont have too many doubts that they will be Lucky_Country. The isl holes are  already drilled. The data is there. The previous mine design and plant designs are already there. They only have to rebuild what was originally there and away they go. Go deeper on the holes that are there to test all the roll fronts and it shouldnt be too long to get a JORC.
It shouldnt take very long to get a BFS as the setup has already previously been done. This should be able to roll within 2 years.


----------



## Gspot

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I bought PEN when they were 10cand have held ever since. I've been watching for some time, and agree with HSeng, that these puppies will fire. Having uranium like this Lance project, in the US, is as good as it gets, imo.
Sitting and waiting with money ready, to top up on this mob.
Keep up the good chatter HangSeng and co.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It seems PEN is unloved on ASF. No accounting for taste 

Announcement out this morning and all excellent news toward development of the Lance Uranium Project in Wyoming. This project is advancing rapidly toward production and this is just one more step in the right direction.

*"Environmental Baseline Studies commence at the Lance Project"*
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00849724

Two key appointments and the market responded with excellent volume today so far.


----------



## Georgeb

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Great announcement. I have just re-purchased again today and after it broke 4.5c. This is way undervalued..


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Georgeb said:


> Great announcement. I have just re-purchased again today and after it broke 4.5c. This is way undervalued..




It has been undervalued for over 12 months IMO. No matter the reset is in progress now and the market will pickup accordingly on PEN.


----------



## uahmad

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi!

After doing some research PEN was my very FIRST buy on share market. Im a total newbie and probably still haven't learnt enough to even make the purchase but for some reason I did.

I bought these yesterday at 3.8c and already upto 4.6. Since it was my first buy it was a VERY small parcel and now im kicking myself I didnt buy more.

Im probably looking at buying some more but not sure when to come back in? From what i understand or read it looks poise to take off again very soon. 

What are your thoughts regarding this Hangseng?

Giving i wont be taking your comments as advice (will do my own investigation) but as a novice what do people think? is it wise to step back in around the 4.4-4.5c mark or just hold onto what i have at the moment and see what happens.

Sorry if i come across as if im after a tip etc. Definitely not my intentions.

Cheers


----------



## alankew

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Dont forget there are options,code is PENO,current price is around half that of the heads.They expire in Jun 2010 so plenty of time obe in the money.The exercise price is 10c however as the heads get closer(and over this price)thats when the options will really come in to play


----------



## VViCKiD

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



alankew said:


> Dont forget there are options,code is PENO,current price is around half that of the heads.They expire in Jun 2010 so plenty of time obe in the money.The exercise price is 10c however as the heads get closer(and over this price)thats when the options will really come in to play




hi alankew,

I can't find those options on the ASX site. Could you please post up the listing of the options available ?

Cheers


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



uahmad said:


> Hi!
> 
> After doing some research PEN was my very FIRST buy on share market. Im a total newbie and probably still haven't learnt enough to even make the purchase but for some reason I did.
> 
> I bought these yesterday at 3.8c and already upto 4.6. Since it was my first buy it was a VERY small parcel and now im kicking myself I didnt buy more.
> 
> Im probably looking at buying some more but not sure when to come back in? From what i understand or read it looks poise to take off again very soon.
> 
> What are your thoughts regarding this Hangseng?
> 
> Giving i wont be taking your comments as advice (will do my own investigation) but as a novice what do people think? is it wise to step back in around the 4.4-4.5c mark or just hold onto what i have at the moment and see what happens.
> 
> Sorry if i come across as if im after a tip etc. Definitely not my intentions.
> 
> Cheers





If there is doubt stay out.

It doesn't mean the stock isn't worthwhile, in fact I believe the opposite. It simply means if you are not sure in your own mind then stay with what you have.

Indecisiveness and procrastination can be a formidable and convincing enemy and yet can be your greatest protection against yourself.

Learn your own psychology first, then decide what is good for you.

End of lecture, sorry about that 


A buy at around 4.1-4.4 may see you in for this run. New support is at 4-4.1 so a buy sitting there for any re-test of support may be a worthwhile entry.

Personally I don't think you will get in under 4.4 now and I don't chase stocks. That is why I buy the stocks I want at technical lows then sit and wait.

Define what you want to do, day trade a stock or invest. Day trade, chasing momentum can be profitable and can also cost you especially in T+3. Investing,  choose the entry you are happy with and just buy and don't sell untill the stock reaches your desired profit level.

None of the above is advice, nor recommendation to buy or sell. Except for the lecture, that is advice on trading psychology  Learn that and you will increase your win/loss ratio.


----------



## uahmad

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Wow what happened this little bugger today.

Anyway went with my feeling and jumped on again at 4c today.

Hopefully next week we see the Green action back.


----------



## SCHUMACHER

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hello to all, ive just joined this site today and have been in and out of PEN over the past 12 months.......so here is my take on PEN

....there was certainly a flurry of buyers chomping thorugh those millions recently when it hit 4.7c and now shes back to 3.8 to 3.9c.....3.8c is crutial support on my charts.....so my call now is that 3.8c needs to hold and once we break 4.6c we should and I say, should see new levels well above....PEN is one of those stocks that could erupt at any given time.....they also have more chance of getting to production than DYL at this EARLY stage....now isnt that funny!  ......so therefore I think everyone should have at least 100,000 shares In Pen minimum if you can afford them and bottom draw them as its not alot of money to pay for a small stake ...especially if they get to production inside 3 years from now.......

Currently the charts are showing an ascending triangle which is a bullish chart pattern.....we should know the outcome of this trading pattern if she moves through 4.1c whcih seems to be a bit difficult at the moment......interesting that the gold anouncements on friday did not move the share price much but the way the overall market sentiment is i didnt expect much and of course, the fat that PEN is more a U308 company than Gold ........

DOW closed 220 points down on friday so this coming week may be a bit choppy.......one thing is for sure PEN has a great potential future based on the ISR mining as opposed to conventional mining as the start up cost and production costs are considerably lower than conventional mining 

Cheers Schumacher


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I have been reliably informed that we should see the new website tomorrow. Apparently it will be incomplete but we will begin to see the transformation of PEN into a dedicated uranium company.

I hold that the Lance project will be a company maker for PEN. It won't do my bank account any harm either in a few years time


----------



## martha

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

hangseng - does this mean we have to hold onto these for a few more years before we see any return or are you talking about major returns? do you think uranium prices are going to turn around?


----------



## uahmad

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

well the new anticipated website just went online.

Looks pretty shmick too!

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



martha said:


> hangseng - does this mean we have to hold onto these for a few more years before we see any return or are you talking about major returns? do you think uranium prices are going to turn around?




It is best I don't get into forecasting share prices. Where PEN will go short term I really don't know. If I hazard a calculated guess it would be up as PEN has so much information coming forward now and I foresee it all being positive.

Long term it is suffice to say I now have large holding (for me that is) and I am expecting an excellent return on this as a long term investment. I am very comfortable with my risk exposure to PEN. 

The talk of going to early production is not a pie in the sky prediction in my view. I have read enough information and discussed enough with the company now to suggest to me quite strongly that this will occur, and I believe it will by late 2010 if not earlier. This is my timeline and not the companies or anyone elses, so don't base anything you do on my thoughts. 

I also expect PEN to announce a resource upgrade to 100Mt, as they have already indicated they are targeting.

With the environmentalist they have now engaged I expect the approvals to be a given. He is very high profile in Wyoming and is not what you might call a new kid on the block, this is his playground.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

All of the pieces are falling into place, slowly but surely. This wasn't my find but it is a worthwhile read. No doubt this will be on the new website as they continue to add information. PEN is beginning to look very exciting indeed.

I recommend if not already registered to the website source indicated below, that you do so. A significant amount of information on any number of companies.

The company is convinced and so am I. One thing is becoming a certainty, PEN won't remain at 3c for long!
_*"...especially considering the potential of our Lance project to be a company maker that will enable use to capitalise on the growing demand for uranium as a supplement to coal for base load power supply."*_

*Peninsula Minerals Commences Environmental Baseline Studies at its Lance Project, Progressing the Company Towards its Aim of Becoming a Profitable Uranium Producer *
_Peninsula Minerals Ltd is a uranium exploration company that is primarily focused on taking its flagship project – the Lance Project, in Wyoming, USA – through to production, while subsequently continuing the exploration and development of the additional tenements within its portfolio in South Africa and Australia. 
The Company’s aim is to be a 1.5m lb per year U3O8 producer from an In-Situ Recovery operation at the Lance Project in Wyoming USA within 2 years of permitting._

Illustrating Peninsula Mineral’s substantial progress to date it has commenced environmental baseline studies at this project.

Mr. Gus Simpson, Peninsula Mineral’s Chairman informed the Australian Investor, “This is a key development for the Company because it progresses us towards the permitting of the project. We need to conduct these baseline studies to comply with Wyoming’s government, which will enable us to commence mining in a timely fashion.”

The commencement of environmental baseline studies has resulted in the appointment of two key Environmental and Engineering consultants: Mr. Pat Gochnour and Mr. Doug Christopherson.

Senior Environmental Consultant Mr. Gochnour willl lead the environmental baseline monitoring and the permitting process required for permitting of new ISR operations in Wyoming. 

Mr. Gochnour has provided environmental service to the mining industry since 1981, with his areas of expertise including environmental audits, permitting programs, Plan of Operations and EA/EIS development, alternative siting studies, reclamation planning, environmental contingency planning, remediation and environmental litigation support.

Mr. Christopherson, Senior Engineer with independent consultants World Industrial Minerals, will conduct a thorough review of all of the historic hydrologic, process and production data generated in the historic ISR Pilot Plant which was located on recently acquired mineral tenements at the Lance Project. He will review the significant amount of historic data related to the ISR Pilot Plant that previously operated at the Lance Project. 

The trial mine and ISR Pilot Plant were designed to produce 40,000 lb of U3O8 per year and ran successfully for ten months prior to being closed due to the Three Mile Island incident in March 1979. The site was fully rehabilitated with all bonds returned from the Department of Environmental Quality and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by 1984.

*“We are excited by the potential represented in this project, not only because of this ISR Pilot Plant, but also because we believe the Lance Project has the potential to not just be a mineral project, but a mineral province,” Mr. Simpson informed the Australian Investor, “It has managed to remain under the radar because it has been under the control of the same individual since its conception up until this point. We are very fortunate to have gained access to the area and are looking forward to aggressively pursuing its potential.”*

Mr. Simpson noted that one of the key reasons why Peninsula Minerals was able to obtain access to this area was because of its understanding on how to approach land acquisition.

“We understand that to acquire land it is important to take a one-on-one approach and build up a relationship with the owner,” he explained to the Australian Investor, “We put in the time and the effort to show the land owner that we are genuine.”

This is an approach that Mr. Simpson has learned via the acquisition of mineral sands tenements in Western Australia. 

Another important attribute of Peninsula Minerals that is expected to aid its growth and its development is its strong technical team that the Company is continuing to expand.

*Mr. Simpson also mentioned that currently the Company’s largest shareholder is a US institutional group that has bought its position in the Company via the Australian share market. 

“We believe this demonstrates their support and belief in Peninsula Minerals and its projects,” Mr. Simpson commented, “Moreover we think it shows their recognition of the increasing market for uranium within the US.”*

He concluded, _*“We are positive about the future outlook for Peninsula Minerals, especially considering the potential of our Lance project to be a company maker that will enable use to capitalise on the growing demand for uranium as a supplement to coal for base load power supply.”*_
_Source: http://www.australianinvestor.com.au/magazine.aspx?id=2937_


----------



## mickqld

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Announcement out. 
Investor presentation.
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080709/pdf/00858836.pdf

Aiming to be a 1.5million lb per year U3O8 producer within 1 year of permitting.
Projected NPV of $260 million


----------



## Megacents

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Still sitting around the 3.0-3.3cents range. 

Perhaps uranium conference 23-24 July in WA maybe a good precursor to new investment. Company presents on the 24th. I notice that the Japanese government is one of the sponsors.

Link to conference: http://www.verticalevents.com.au/uranium2008/

Does any one know if this (conference) is a good gateway networking etc?

All comments are created while I am sleeping . Dyor.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Announcement out today displays how good this project potentially can be and the rapid progress the company is making while the market sleeps. This is a very positive announcement in terms of development confirmation and project advancement. This is a real story panning out here.

In terms of environmental approvals and lease expansion in Wyoming, this is extremely positive. They have now aquired a very large area in the Lance project.

In regard to the query about the Uranium conference held in Fremantle. The short answer is yes and to quote Gus Simpson as close as I can recall _"Areva were very positive about the future of nuclear energy and want all the uranium they can get." _Gus went on to tell me that both Areva and the Japanese people present stated they wanted to speak to all uranium companies present with a view to sourcing further uranium. He stated they had been talking to them but would not elaborate further, understandably.

PEN is advancing very positively and the next 6-12 months are going to be extremely interesting as further news is delivered.


----------



## Megacents

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi hangseng

Thanks for the feedback re conference. Tried to top up this morning at 2.5cents but no luck due to announcement.

DYOR.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Uranium price is tipped to double over the next year alone and PEN is advancing its project in great fashion.
I have been really impressed with the management and the progress the Lance project is getting better with each announcement.
PEN is the best U308 explorer on the ASX.


----------



## SCHUMACHER

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Lucky_Country said:


> Uranium price is tipped to double over the next year alone and PEN is advancing its project in great fashion.
> I have been really impressed with the management and the progress the Lance project is getting better with each announcement.
> PEN is the best U308 explorer on the ASX.





make that ADVANCED EXPLORER......and dont forget AGS....they are a lowest cost producer than PEN and they commence mining in 15 months ........PEN goes to bank feasibility by end of 2010 so it wont be until 2012 before they commence mining....cheers Schu


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



SCHUMACHER said:


> make that ADVANCED EXPLORER......and dont forget AGS....they are a lowest cost producer than PEN and they commence mining in 15 months ........PEN goes to bank feasibility by end of 2010 so it wont be until 2012 before they commence mining....cheers Schu




Hi there Shu,
Not entirely correct, PEN will commence mining within 12months of permitting. This process has already begun and could potentially be complete by mid 2009. PEN indicated in the annual report that this process is from 2008-2010.

All PEN need complete succesfully for permitting is the groundwater baseline study, which is well underway. I have already confirmed that PEN require no public consult period for Lance, so that is no barrier.

PEN could potentially be mining by late 2010.

You are correct in that AGS is a lower cost production. This is due to the exceptionally high grades they have and the size of the resource, which is clearly massive on both counts. However AGS is in patnership so they won't reap all of the rewards, not to state it won't be good quite to the contrary. I like AGS a lot and share your positive view.

PEN on the other hand has only just started to prove up Lance, with Ross and Barber rapidly showing higher grades and the resource size is increasing significantly with time. Lance (at this stage) is also 100% PEN and the plant design is already done, as is the ISR plant location identified all of which are major aspects in the positive development of PEN in Wyoming. Make no mistake PEN will be a very low cost producer and even without checking the Capex of AGS I believe PEN is a lot lower for Lance.

PEN was an advanced explorer, it is now clearly idenitfied as a potential producer. Still a way to go but the positives are adding up consistently and in a timely fashion. I haven't even spoken of Karoo but that will become self evident as early results have already indicated.

The two IMO can't be compared apart from the potential capital gains. Both AGS and PEN IMO will do very well, however (again IMO) PEN will achieve far greater multiples in SP gains in the next 3 years purely due to the very low entry price that is no longer relevant to AGS. Not to say AGS is not going to increase, I believe it will and that is why it is one of mine, I just believe PEN will provide me with a far higher return in the next 3-5 years.

All of the above subject to change dependant on how Lance is funded, clearly dilution could disolve some of the potential gains I speak of if equity is used. But I am thinking way ahead of myself here as we aren't there yet, 2009 this will become clear.

Just my view.
Cheers
Hangseng.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN having a large volume day just some idiot seller trying to cap the price !

PEN has been way way oversold for some time now and value hunters seem to be moving in.

Lets see how the day finishes !!


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

You dont think that it could be setting up for a cap raising or restructure? I noticed that options were'nt exercised in February. I only ask as I've seen PEN get ramped before. I hold no stock but remain interested in it, only that it will need future funds. From its last run up to 3cents I think there may also be a few wanting out to, so resistence will be a bit stacked.


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Not sure about a restructure but they have alot of projects they may consider selling down before going back to the market.

PEN has been way oversold but looks like someone wants back in !


----------



## shaq32

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Trading Halt lifted today and it retraced quickly from 3.5 to 3. There is serious upside in this stock if you do some research on Lance. If it falls into the mid 2's then i'll be loading up once again. Cheapest U stock out there with excellent prospects


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



shaq32 said:


> Trading Halt lifted today and it retraced quickly from 3.5 to 3. There is serious upside in this stock if you do some research on Lance. If it falls into the mid 2's then i'll be loading up once again. Cheapest U stock out there with excellent prospects




Shaq,

Welcome to ASF 

Please inform us as to why you believe this stock is cheap. Otherwise your comment is simply ramping and will be removed.

Thanks

Prawn


----------



## shaq32

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

1. At 3.6 cents current fully diluted market cap is $44 million Aussie. The replacement cost of the 912,000 metres of drilling would be $60 million.
The current full value of the company is roughly 73% of the replacement drilling cost.

2. Minimum target (global)of 50 million pounds is currently worth $3.5 billion US and that is the minimum target.

3. Mean target is 63 million pounds for $4.41 billion.

4. Current top range target is 76 million pounds for $5.32 billion.

5. 50 million pounds at $7 US equals $350 million US
63 million pounds at $7 US equals $441 million US
76 million pounds at $7 US equals $532 million US

A recent t/o in Africa using open cut (more expensive) was based on either $7 or $7.50 US per pound in ground.

Our current market cap of $44 million Aussie or 30.79 million US equates to 61.58 cents US per pound using the minimum of 50 million pounds, 48.89 cents US using 63 million pounds or 40.51 cents US using 76 million pounds.And some suggest there could be a lot more than 76 million pounds.

There is a upside here me thinks.

And all located in the uranium deficient USA.

btw nice article in the Australian Today

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25403227-36418,00.html


----------



## doubledark

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

with no discussion for over a month I would like to ask people who follow Pen if they have any thoughts on todays possible events?


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I reckon they are going to offer a placemement at 0.028c with an attaching right payable at 0.03c.  Stacks more shares on issue I guess if the shareholders think they are getting a bonus, ask the the holders back when the stock was up around 9c if they got value. Uranium was over $100 back then.  


With all their land/acerage around Wyoming and the touting of its potential, I would have thought that there would be other companies more than interested to stake a claim in their Uranium findings. I was hoping more for a joint venture announcement.

I'm probably being a bit cynical but we may not see Uranium produced from Wyoming for ages, reminds me of the line I think in a Clint Eastwood movie, where he says  "Your all dressed up and no-one to blow."


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> I reckon they are going to offer a placemement at 0.028c with an attaching right payable at 0.03c.  Stacks more shares on issue I guess if the shareholders think they are getting a bonus, ask the the holders back when the stock was up around 9c if they got value. Uranium was over $100 back then.
> 
> 
> With all their land/acerage around Wyoming and the touting of its potential, I would have thought that there would be other companies more than interested to stake a claim in their Uranium findings. I was hoping more for a joint venture announcement.
> 
> I'm probably being a bit cynical but we may not see Uranium produced from Wyoming for ages, reminds me of the line I think in a Clint Eastwood movie, where he says  "Your all dressed up and no-one to blow."




I wonder how you arrived at the "reckon" of 2.8C? Pretty good guess

I disagree completely with you regarding Wyoming, in particular with Lance. In fact it already is being produced and directly adjacent to Lance. Lance was also a  successful operational site with the pilot plant, so as rightly pointed out by PEN this is a "Brownfields" operational site not a "Greenfields" site. PEN is well advanced and all that they have is going to come to light very quickly now with the advancement of Ross and Barber to BFS stage.

A very big mistake people also seem to be making with PEN at Lance is they compare PEN to conventional miners as compared with InSitu Recovery. It is also completely overlooked that where they are to operate has all infrastructure in place, i.e no cost to PEN to develop. This is very low cost operation as already indicated by the preliminary studies and in my opinion will occur in the timeline indicated by PEN. The operational plant is basic in design and will be constructed quickly at low cost.

I will gladly be taking up the offer and glad management had the foresight to give an opportunity to shareholders. John Simpson is smart enough to know that longer term holders (believers) of PEN will see this as another opportunity, I know I do.


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I actually guessed the placement price after having just read their announcement, I used the power of hindsight.

I'm not a "believer" of PEN so what I say might not rub up well with those that are, but its my op, and still have an interest in the company if only by just watching.

These guys are more like Wyoming real estate agents, purchasing chunks of land, "much like throwing a handfull of darts at a board, hoping ones got to stick", sure their historical grades show good grades, but these guys have not really done much drilling, and as in any insitu recovery you need to know how much actual recoverable Uranium you are going to get.  

While other companys might be producing nextdoor, it doesnt mean they will be as lucky.

As for the share price, imo I believe you will get it cheaper than their placement, only as they have created a large dilution, irrespective of market capital, PEN are not even halfway there.

I'll await their Hydro and Metalurgical testing and possiblly some type of JORC, instead of historical data.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> These guys are more like Wyoming real estate agents, purchasing chunks of land, "much like throwing a handfull of darts at a board, hoping ones got to stick", sure their historical grades show good grades, but these guys have not really done much drilling, and as in any insitu recovery you need to know how much actual recoverable Uranium you are going to get.
> 
> I'll await their Hydro and Metalurgical testing and possiblly some type of JORC, instead of historical data.




How wrong you are, you really should do far more research before making such a statement. If you had done your homework, or even simply contacted John Simpson you would know they only need to do confirmation drilling. 

The locations they are aquiring are targetted to pinpoint GPS accuracy based on the historical data, hardly "throwing darts".

The historical data equates in todays terms of around US$60M in drilling costs according to John Simpson, hardly what you would term "not much drilling". PEN DO NOT have to redrill that data to be acceptable for JORC, that is simply another misunderstood aspect generally by the market.

I do agree theat the Hydro/Metallurgy testing is important and will be telling. It is also the catalyst to apply for the works permit.

Do yourself a big favour and read far more than you have, not only re PEN but about the location historically and as importantly ring John Simpson.

You displayed what I have spoken of many times, PEN is misunderstood completely, often misinterpreted and will have its day in the sun. I even had someone recently argue with me that they are going to "destroy the ground water with acids". A simple read would have displayed a benign bi-carbonate solution is used in Wyoming, acids are used in another continent far from the USA for different reasons. Many have also said the historical data is nothing but worthless paper, that is as laughable as stating they are "throwing darts".

I can see John now if he read your last post, he would still be rolling over laughing his head off as am I. You are entitled to your view as you say, as I am to laugh at such an outrageously false statement.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> These guys are more like Wyoming real estate agents, purchasing chunks of land, "much like throwing a handfull of darts at a board, hoping ones got to stick", sure their historical grades show good grades, but these guys have not really done much drilling, and as in any insitu recovery you need to know how much actual recoverable Uranium you are going to get.
> 
> I'll await their Hydro and Metalurgical testing and possiblly some type of JORC, instead of historical data.




How wrong you are, you really should do far more research before making such a statement. If you had done your homework, or even simply contacted John Simpson you would know they only need to do confirmation drilling. 

The locations they are aquiring are targetted to pinpoint GPS accuracy based on the historical data, hardly "throwing darts".

The historical data equates in todays terms of around US$60M in drilling costs according to John Simpson, hardly what you would term "not much drilling". PEN DO NOT have to redrill that data to be acceptable for JORC, that is simply another misunderstood aspect generally by the market.

I do agree that the Hydro/Metallurgy testing is important and will be telling. It is also the catalyst to apply for the works permit.

Do yourself a big favour and read far more than you have, not only re PEN but about the location historically and as importantly ring John Simpson.

You displayed what I have spoken of many times, PEN is misunderstood completely, often misinterpreted and will have its day in the sun. I even had someone recently argue with me that they are going to "destroy the ground water with acids". A simple read would have displayed a benign bi-carbonate solution is used in Wyoming, acids are used in another continent far from the USA for different reasons. Many have also said the historical data is nothing but worthless paper, that is as laughable as stating they are "throwing darts".

I can see John now if he read your last post, he would still be rolling over laughing his head off as am I. You are entitled to your view as you say, as I am to laugh at such an outrageously false statement.


----------



## Megacents

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi

Nice banter Jetblack and hangseng (been quiet for a while this thread)

I have held PEN shares for a while now and what really interests me is the brownfields (ISR) (USA) and now some interesting developments in SA (ISR). I will certaintly be taking the latest offer, only because I like a gamble.

Any way time will tell.

Megacents

dyor


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I should probably clarify the "dart board" statement , it was meant in context with the chunks of land being acquired, not the historical grades. As you are aware ISR also needs large areas of land and good ground water table.  

PEN's acerage is in the North East, the better part of ISR is in the South West of the Powder River Basin, could be something to do with a better ground water table?  

PEN are touting the area as possibly the next mineral province,they got to prove it,  like I said I'll wait until the Hydro and Metal testing.


----------



## shaq32

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Well the dilution effect is in full swing and with a price round the take up offer its little wonder the rights issue was not fully subscribed. However the options are still the defining decision in having taken up the issue.

Just remember that its 2012 that matters and not 2009! People sometimes need to be reminded that mines take time to evolve. By this time there will be a Uranium shortage(well publicised) and PEN will be able to take advatage of this when the time arises. 

Nice to see Simpson investing heavily in the stock also.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> PEN's acerage is in the North East, the better part of ISR is in the South West of the Powder River Basin, could be something to do with a better ground water table?  QUOTE]
> 
> Can you point out where you sourced that information?
> 
> Or have you simply based this on existing new start up operations in that location?


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I'm sorry I cannot locate the article which lead me to make the comment. Although, the article was not point specific to uranium mining in Wyoming, it was more of geological assesment which included a number of areas in the Wyoming district.

I will retract the comment as I cannot pinpoint the article, however the basis on which it is made refers to the yet proven Hydro testing the company needs to do with these historical grades.

For those interested here is a link which my provide a little bit of balance between ISR mining and those of Penninsula Fan Boys.

http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04092007/Water-ISR-Uranium-Mining.html 

The article is a few years old.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> I'm sorry I cannot locate the article which lead me to make the comment. Although, the article was not point specific to uranium mining in Wyoming, it was more of geological assesment which included a number of areas in the Wyoming district.
> 
> I will retract the comment as I cannot pinpoint the article, however the basis on which it is made refers to the yet proven Hydro testing the company needs to do with these historical grades.
> 
> For those interested here is a link which my provide a little bit of balance between ISR mining and those of Penninsula Fan Boys.
> 
> http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04092007/Water-ISR-Uranium-Mining.html
> 
> The article is a few years old.




I am well aware of that article and that webiste in particular. Let's analyse it a little with some supported factual information.

As it turns out that article is well supported by PEN and in particular this statement from the article you point out:
_"In our case, we focused our acquisition activities in the *Powder River Basin, which we know from our previous work. Most of those sands that are hosting uranium are indeed saturated with water*."_

The Powder River Basin being where PEN is and also being the largest landholder in the location and growing. You are correct that the hydrological results will tell a story. A story very similar to what has been stated in the article you point out. The Powder River Basin has ample water supplies in contained aquifers. Well proven in the location that PEN is targeting.

A few notes on the subject of the Lance Project,  Lance Formations, and NE Wyoming. 

I have done my research over the last 3 years, along with a few learned colleagues who know far more than I do and the Lance Project is not what you have implied. It is well suited to ISR and PEN' own initial studies has confirmed this. The Hydrological test results are also expected to confirm Lance being amenable to ISR as already stated by PEN.

_*Cretaceous
Upper Cretaceous
Lance Formation*
"North Wyoming--thick-bedded buff sandstone and drab to green shale; thin conglomerate lenses.... Northeast Wyoming--brown and gray sandstone and shale; thin coal and carbonaceous shale beds."3 

Generally yields less than 76 L/min, *but yields of several hundred liters per minute may be possible from the complete section of the formation in Powder River Basin.*

Dissolved-solids concentrations of historical water samples taken in the Bighorn Basin ranged from 591 to 1,860 mg/L. 

Dissolved-solids concentrations of historical *water samples taken in the Powder River Basin ranged from about 200 to more than 2,000 mg/L, but commonly ranged between 500 and 1,500 mg/L."* I]
source: http://pubs.usgs.gov

*Lance Project*
Background / Geology Notes
Project Name Lance Uranium Project   
Location Gillette, 55km NE of 
Wyoming
United States 

Project Type Insitu Leach   
Project Status Pre-feasibility   
Commodities uranium  

"the Sundance prospect is the Lance Formation, of *upper Cretaceous age*. It consists of fluvial channel sandstones, inter-channel mudstones, claystones, and sandstones. The sandstones are generally fine-grained, friable, and occur in beds up to 7.6m thick, and are quartzose to feldspathic in composition.
At Oshoto there are multiple roll front systems that are stacked above each other, but in separate sandstone units. This positioning of these geochemical cells, generally one atop another, has created thick zones of uranium mineralisation (in the range of 0.05% U3O8) that were the subject of the pilot plant development program undertaken by the NuBeth JV. "
source: http://www.intierra.com/profiles/properties/L\Lance Uranium Project.htm_


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> As it turns out that article is well supported by PEN and in particular this statement from the article you point out:
> _"In our case, we focused our acquisition activities in the *Powder River Basin, which we know from our previous work. Most of those sands that are hosting uranium are indeed saturated with water*."_
> 
> The Powder River Basin being where PEN is and also being the largest landholder in the location and growing. You are correct that the hydrological results will tell a story. A story very similar to what has been stated in the article you point out. The Powder River Basin has ample water supplies in contained aquifers. Well proven in the location that PEN is targeting.[/url]





You might like to add the rest of the quote *"......There are some that are not. From our experience we pretty much know those deposits that may be sitting above the water table. In other words, they are not saturated with water. If uranium went to $500/pound, maybe some day you could put a conventional mine on them."*



Show me the water.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> You might like to add the rest of the quote *"......There are some that are not. From our experience we pretty much know those deposits that may be sitting above the water table. In other words, they are not saturated with water. If uranium went to $500/pound, maybe some day you could put a conventional mine on them."*
> 
> Show me the water.





Just so as no confusion for anyone here reading all of this. That reference was not in regard to PEN's land area at Sundance (Lance) it was the person talking of the land they are on in the South East of the Powder River Basin in Wyoming. The same area you stated previously had the best water  

Somehow that isn't supported by the information he has presented,  nor the hydrological data I sourced and posted here.

Objective facts should be presented not subjective viewpoints.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Warwick Grigor isn't the best speaker, but this is an extremely positive presentation on many fronts:

www brr com au/event/58833/canary-events-uranium-investor-forum-july-09-warwick-grigor-peninsula-minerals

(sorry for removing the "." from the website address at the start but this site wouldn't let me post the link otherwise)

In summary, PEN could be sitting on 100mlbs in Wyoming and 150mlbs in South Africa, and management are deliberately holding off on JORC compliance so that they can remain under the radar for now. For reference, Extract Resources (SP: $6.77, MC: 1.2 billion+) is expected to report a total of between 250-300mlbs at Rossing South next month. Extract has a lot of other things going for it, but not enough to explain why its 250mlbs at 450ppm is worth over $1.2 billion while PEN's 250mlbs at 700ppm+ is only worth $30-40 million. When the market officially wakes up to this reality I hope to see a significant re-rating. It'll never be another Extract, but I think a quarter or half of Extract is realistic and fair. Just give it a few years.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

"....and management are deliberately holding off on JORC compliance so that they can remain under the radar for now."

Yep, thats how you run a company. 

For the sake of PEN investors I would probably ask Mr Grigor not to do any more presentations, I dont think he could believe the bullsh#t he was spinning. Would not instill any encouragement for me.

There was nothing he said that was not a reiteration of the rescent presentations that PEN put to the market. 

IMO they are land grabbing because the historical drill holes they whilst they may contain good uranium grades , they do not have enough encouraging signs of water. Sure thay have the spongy qualities of good filtration but so does all of the Powder River Basin.

Most of these historical holes must be well above the water table, quote Mr Grigor .." depth is not an obstacle" 
..." we must get circulation of fluids through the ore bodies."

I'm sorry but I think that the main areas of uranium interest are around the south western and eastern areas of Powder River Basin, even the map in PEN's presentations shows where a few new mines are being placed and where all the activity is.

Anyway all the best.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> "For the sake of PEN investors I would probably ask Mr Grigor not to do any more presentations, I dont think he could believe the bullsh#t he was spinning. Would not instill any encouragement for me.
> 
> IMO they are land grabbing because the historical drill holes they whilst they may contain good uranium grades , they do not have enough encouraging signs of water. Sure thay have the spongy qualities of good filtration but so does all of the Powder River Basin.
> 
> Most of these historical holes must be well above the water table, quote Mr Grigor .." depth is not an obstacle"
> ..." we must get circulation of fluids through the ore bodies."




I've got nothing against negative opinions, but I think the problem when you write about a company you intensely dislike is that you've stopped processing information about that company in depth.  For instance:

1) A lack of confidence with public speaking does not prove nor imply a person is "bullsh#tting".

2) Your explanation for why they are land grabbing is only one of several possibilities.  Another possibility is that they're extremely happy with what they've got and want as much more land in the same area as possible at the lowest possible price.  That goal isn't achieved by screaming from the rooftops that there's Uranium in them thar hills.

3)  The area has ALREADY been mined economically in the past!  For your claims and selective quotes to hold, you need to explain your reasoning for thinking something has changed geologically.  If you have no evidence, then don't make absolute claims please.  There's every reason to believe mining is possible until further studies are done.  For you to claim you know the outcome of those studies already without supplying a shred of evidence is testing the limits of your credibility.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> I've got nothing against negative opinions, but I think the problem when you write about a company you intensely dislike is that you've stopped processing information about that company in depth.  For instance:




It's the sort of retort I would expect from a Peninsula fan boy.
My comments are not negative, I dont dislike the company, my information processing is fine.



> 1) A lack of confidence with public speaking does not prove nor imply a person is "bullsh#tting".




Yeah, I probably over steped the mark on that one, never the less Mr Grigor didnt inspire the conifdence, just guilding some big lilly.



> 2) Your explanation for why they are land grabbing is only one of several possibilities.  Another possibility is that they're extremely happy with what they've got and want as much more land in the same area as possible at the lowest possible price.  That goal isn't achieved by screaming from the rooftops that there's Uranium in them thar hills.




As its considered one of several posibilities I take that as  you are in agreeance with my explanation as I am with yours. Regarding the "screaming from rooftops that there's Uranium in them thar hills" Mr Grigor in his opening remarks blurted out the abundance of Uranium in the district, what you think the landowners in Wyoming are just like "Ma n Pa Kettle".



> 3)  The area has ALREADY been mined economically in the past!  For your claims and selective quotes to hold, you need to explain your reasoning for thinking something has changed geologically.  If you have no evidence, then don't make absolute claims please.  There's every reason to believe mining is possible until further studies are done.  For you to claim you know the outcome of those studies already without supplying a shred of evidence is testing the limits of your credibility.




These selective quotes are from Mr Grigor talking about what your ears seem to selectively filter, what reson do I need to give for the fact that Mr Grigor says that they need to get "circulation of fluids through the ore body"...thats a fact is it not?
Coal Bed Methane (CBM)changes something geologically, Mr Grigor mentions that the uranium is also found amongst CBM, 
Heres some fact, which ties into the comment made by Mr Grigor ".....depth is not an obstacle." I sort of take it that the water table is somewhat deep below the ore body.

http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache...+wyoming+water+table&cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

As for my claim to know the outcome of whats in the studies  (no point tyring to ask you where it is I have made such claim) , yes you are correct I posses special super powers that enable me to see whats below the ground and post such findings on stock chat forums but these powers came at a heavy price by not being able to pick the seven numbers in Oz Lotto and this is a burden I alone must bare.

I will await the hydro testing

All the best


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> It's the sort of retort I would expect from a Peninsula fan boy.
> My comments are not negative, I dont dislike the company, my information processing is fine.
> 
> Yeah, I probably over steped the mark on that one, never the less Mr Grigor didnt inspire the conifdence, just guilding some big lilly.




Well, overstepping the mark is a sign of the kind of superficial processing and dismissal of information I was referring to.  Let's just agree that you're as much of an anti-fanboy as I am a fanboy.



jetblack said:


> As its considered one of several posibilities I take that as  you are in agreeance with my explanation as I am with yours. Regarding the "screaming from rooftops that there's Uranium in them thar hills" Mr Grigor in his opening remarks blurted out the abundance of Uranium in the district, what you think the landowners in Wyoming are just like "Ma n Pa Kettle".




I'd be surprised if any owners are following PEN that closely.  I wouldn't expect Peninsula Minerals to be acquiring land under its company name so it'd be quite a feat for a land holder to make the connection.  Besides which, most of the land acquisition has already been carried out.  It's only in the last few months that management has been hitting the media, raising capital etc.



jetblack said:


> These selective quotes are from Mr Grigor talking about what your ears seem to selectively filter, what reson do I need to give for the fact that Mr Grigor says that they need to get "circulation of fluids through the ore body"...thats a fact is it not?
> Coal Bed Methane (CBM)changes something geologically, Mr Grigor mentions that the uranium is also found amongst CBM,




Of course it's fact, but for some reason you chose to omit the sentences before and after where Warwick clearly stated confidence that all the boxes had been ticked (including hydrostatic pressure).  From presentation of 6 May: "Review of historic engineering studies has confirmed suitability of the project to the ISR mining method."



jetblack said:


> Heres some fact, which ties into the comment made by Mr Grigor ".....depth is not an obstacle." I sort of take it that the water table is somewhat deep below the ore body.




Why do you "sort of take it that the water table is somewhat deep below the ore body" when Warwick and company presentations have clearly stated otherwise?

I quote again from the company presentation on 6 May: "ISR Criteria ... Water Table - deposit must be below water table to ensure hydrostatic pressure ... Laboratory studies and field test work demonstrate that all criteria are met at the Lance projects"



jetblack said:


> (your link to CBM environmental impact)




That's a great find.  Thanks.  However, most of the serious implications of CBM mining to the water table are predicted to take effect around 2017.  If all goes to plan, PEN will be commencing production in Karoo, South Africa by then.



jetblack said:


> As for my claim to know the outcome of whats in the studies  (no point tyring to ask you where it is I have made such claim) , yes you are correct I posses special super powers that enable me to see whats below the ground and post such findings on stock chat forums but these powers came at a heavy price by not being able to pick the seven numbers in Oz Lotto and this is a burden I alone must bare.




You claimed the historical holes "must" be above the water table despite every indication from the company that they are *below* the water table as required for the ISR method to be viable.  To me that reads as you being extremely confident that you have better knowledge of the current geology than the company does.

Have you had a close look at where the Lance Uranium Project is?  The area is riddled with streams, lakes, and rivers.  I can't claim to be a geologist or to know 100% in this particular case, but I do know that water tables are maintained by constant leaching of water through the soil into aquifers.  We know from historical studies that suitable aquifers are abundant across the Lance project, and we can infer from the healthy river and stream system that there's plenty of water in the area to seep through the soil and fill those aquifers.  I agree CBM mining may pose a risk, but I disagree if you think the chances of that being the case are anything beyond small.



jetblack said:


> I will await the hydro testing




I'm not sure we'll need to wait for the official hydro results.  Drilling starts next week and the drill crews should know pretty quickly whether there's water in the aquifers.  I'm hoping to have a clearer picture within a month.

z-trader


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Warwick Grigor isn't the best speaker, but this is an extremely positive presentation on many fronts:
> 
> www brr com au/event/58833/canary-events-uranium-investor-forum-july-09-warwick-grigor-peninsula-minerals
> 
> (sorry for removing the "." from the website address at the start but this site wouldn't let me post the link otherwise)
> 
> In summary, PEN could be sitting on 100mlbs in Wyoming and 150mlbs in South Africa, and management are deliberately holding off on JORC compliance so that they can remain under the radar for now. For reference, Extract Resources (SP: $6.77, MC: 1.2 billion+) is expected to report a total of between 250-300mlbs at Rossing South next month. Extract has a lot of other things going for it, but not enough to explain why its 250mlbs at 450ppm is worth over $1.2 billion while PEN's 250mlbs at 700ppm+ is only worth $30-40 million. When the market officially wakes up to this reality I hope to see a significant re-rating. It'll never be another Extract, but I think a quarter or half of Extract is realistic and fair. Just give it a few years.
> 
> z-trader



z-t, can you find anywhere in PENs announcements how they come up with those exploration targets? I've been looking back through previous anns and presentations and there doesn't seem to be any justification for it, except to state some ppm's. Looks like a ramp from them to me.

The immediate targets they are aiming for seem more reasonable which is just a few million pounds. 

Very early days for them, and to compare them with EXT is a bit of a stretch. 

Their market caps duely reflect this I feel.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> z-t, can you find anywhere in PENs announcements how they come up with those exploration targets? I've been looking back through previous anns and presentations and there doesn't seem to be any justification for it, except to state some ppm's. Looks like a ramp from them to me.
> 
> The immediate targets they are aiming for seem more reasonable which is just a few million pounds.
> 
> Very early days for them, and to compare them with EXT is a bit of a stretch.
> 
> Their market caps duely reflect this I feel.




You're correct to be cynical kennas.  My understanding is (ie from 6 May presentation) that the resource estimates are derived from historical drilling data.  Over 900000 metres of drilling has been carried out across the Lance Uranium Project and analysis of the data suggests 50-76 mlbs of Uranium.  The presentation shows a grid of where the drilling is concentrated.  Warwick Grigor is speculating that further discoveries will be found as the area is drilled out further, and that it could end up being around 100mlbs.

I agree.  It is premature to compare with Extract, but if we take Extract today with 149mlbs at 450ppm and compare with where PEN could be in 2-3 years then the comparison holds IMO.  PEN is likely to be producing before Extract is and PEN has already done comparible amounts of drilling (through the purchase of historical drilling data worth roughly $60 million USD).  Drilling to verify the historical data commences next week and *IF* all goes to plan then PEN could quickly go from having almost no *proven* resource to a significant resource quite quickly.

It also isn't necessary for PEN to have 250mlbs for considerable upside.  According to the preliminary scoping study included in the 6 May presentation, achieving production of 1.5 mlbs per annum after an initial JORC of 12-15mlbs at Ross and Barber (the two most promising sites of 12 at Lance) equates to a Net Present Value of $260 million USD or roughly 30 cents per share.

I think the biggest risk right now (largely mitigated IMHO) is that for some reason the aquifers at Lance no longer have sufficient Hydrostatic pressure to make ISR viable, but once over that hurdle I think the long term future is pretty bright even if they only ever mine a quarter of the speculative 250mlbs, the share price will be a lot higher than it is now in a couple of years.

ztrader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



> Why do you "sort of take it that the water table is somewhat deep below the ore body" when Warwick and company presentations have clearly stated otherwise?




Because Mr Gregior says that "..depth is no obstacle." To me that means that they need to go deeper.
Out of all the historical holes they have they have not said that they are flooded with water as a matter of fact they need to drill these out deeper, they even state this in their announcements. Or is Mr Grigor talking his book up.

....and just for my amusement i joined two of your quotes together



> Have you had a close look at where the Lance Uranium Project is?  The area is riddled with streams, lakes, and rivers.  I can't claim to be a geologist or to know 100% in this particular case,.....




...makes no difference what you say after this irrespective of my editing, your next line says it all....



> I'm not sure we'll need to wait for the official hydro results.  z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> Because Mr Gregior says that "..depth is no obstacle." To me that means that they need to go deeper.
> Out of all the historical holes they have they have not said that they are flooded with water as a matter of fact they need to drill these out deeper, they even state this in their announcements. Or is Mr Grigor talking his book up.
> 
> ....and just for my amusement i joined two of your quotes together
> 
> 
> 
> ...makes no difference what you say after this irrespective of my editing, your next line says it all....




So your whole case against PEN rests on one sentence fragment taken out of context and your best defense of it when shown evidence to the contrary is to re-state your misunderstanding "that they need to go deeper."  In context, the remark means that the Uranium isn't very deep underground (120-160m to be precise) as anyone who's read the presentation on 6 May is aware.

This is what I was referring to when I said we may not need to wait until the official hydro results:

"StockInterview: Is there any way of detecting the problem in advance, before you discover you've got an inadequately saturated formation?

Glenn Catchpole: When you are drilling an exploration hole, the driller knows when he encounters any water at all. If he doesn't get any water, you know right away, you've got a problem very early on. When the driller starts out, he can start drilling with air. If he encounters water in his drilling, then he's going to switch over to drilling mud to carry the cuttings. As he's drilling a hole, he is creating cuttings. He has to have a mud slurry in order to carry those cuttings out of the hole. *An experienced driller will have a good feel for how much water he's encountered. These drillers have worked all over Wyoming; they've got some feel for the local geology and what the water situation might be.*"

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article716.html

Drilling starts next week Jetblack.  Hopefully, we'll be advised of an encouraging/discouraging water situation during the upcoming drilling phase.  

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> z-t, can you find anywhere in PENs announcements how they come up with those exploration targets? I've been looking back through previous anns and presentations and there doesn't seem to be any justification for it, except to state some ppm's. Looks like a ramp from them to me.
> 
> The immediate targets they are aiming for seem more reasonable which is just a few million pounds.
> 
> Very early days for them, and to compare them with EXT is a bit of a stretch.
> 
> Their market caps duely reflect this I feel.




Kennas z-t has it correct.

Lance is a historical site that had a proven pilot plant in operation. With over 900000 metres of drilling carried out and they have all of that historical data. That data was in hard copy format when they purchased it from Pacmag. It was converted completely to a database over a period of almost 12mths, the same database that will be used for Jorc compliance. That is where the estimates have come from and they are valid based on that information and the confirmation drilling (26 holes) at Ross and Barber  carried out last year.

What is also little known is they have the exact coordinates of where the pilot plant was located and each of the bore holes that were used for the plant. This along with the coordinates for all of the historic drilling.

This isn't information they plucked out of the air. It is factual valid data. PEN reported on this once the collation of data was complete and a simple phone call to Gus Simpson will confirm this anyway and where to find it.

Jetblack your false accusations and assumptions display to me you are doing nothing but continually guessing and mud slinging. As you did with the water information, that I clearly displayed you were wrong.

Now you state Warwick Grigor is blatantly lying, and that based on the way he presents. What a foolish and erroneous assumption.

So Gus Simpson is outlaying huge sums of his own money, now along with the other directors, because Lance is no good and the company directors are blatantly lying? Seriously you need to have a close look at what you are posting, I have decided to do the company the courtesy of providing what you have posted here for their information. Be prepared you may have some explaining to do now that you have directly named a director.


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



> Seriously you need to have a close look at what you are posting, I have decided to do the company the courtesy of providing what you have posted here for their information. Be prepared you may have some explaining to do now that you have directly named a director.




What is this, an attempted threat, why the mods haven’t told you to pull your head in. Can you explain what it is your trying to say or do you just get off on being a company stooge and this is how you wield your big stick.




> Jetblack your false accusations and assumptions display to me you are doing nothing but continually guessing and mud slinging. As you did with the water information, that I clearly displayed you were wrong.
> 
> Now you state Warwick Grigor is blatantly lying, and that based on the way he presents. What a foolish and erroneous assumption.
> 
> So Gus Simpson is outlaying huge sums of his own money, now along with the other directors, because Lance is no good and the company directors are blatantly lying?




I have not mentioned the word lying nor have accused the company directors of such. These are your words not mine or is this a Freudian slip and you know more about the directors then the ordinary man in the street? Stop trying to sensationalise

You don’t find it unusual that Mr Grigor can be so nonchalant regarding JORC.
Mr Grigor put it out there in the public domain he said in his opening discussion that they don’t have a resource and that you need to comply with JORC standards. The reasoning behind this is that they need to tie up land and if word gets out it only makes it harder. If we believe Z-Trader who says 







> Besides which, most of the land acquisition has already been carried out. It's only in the last few months that management has been hitting the media, raising capital etc



  then really Mr Grigors argument doesn’t hold true.

Also Strathmore Minerals Corp a Canadian explorer is also a dominant land holder in the Powder River area, as a matter of fact they seem not to dissimilar to Peninsula, why they even have similar presentation diagrams and also have historical data. I can’t believe that the Land owners in Wyoming don’t now what is going on with all this activity around.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/fulp/fulp031109.html

Coal Bed Methane is an integral part of the Powder River Basin and does have an effect on water levels. Here is a quote “Coal bed methane extraction requires that the coal seams be drained of water, emptying aquifers that may take hundreds of years to refill”…
http://serc.carleton.edu/research_education/nativelands/crow/hydrology.html

Why would you not take Mr Grigor to task on that he brings up CBM in his discussion? Maybe sections of the lands Peninsula acquired are shared with CBM operations and there is a need to go deeper.


Hangseng you have proved nothing to me regarding the hydrosity of the areas Peninsula have yet to test. We all know there is water and uranium in the Powder River Basin, seems everyone is blind sided by the word Uranium. 

Peninsula has said in their report of Sept 08 that “that “the historic testing addressed all key criteria for a successful ISR operation” and provides a high level of confidence that the Lance Projects are suitable for ISR recovery.” It’s all based on historic data which still needs to be confirmed with some modern day testing, hydrostatic testing is one. Water flows are affected by CBM and would have also moved a great deal from the days of the “three mile” incident (which is also used by Strathmore Minerals Corp in their blurbs).

Peninsula have way more work to do, they are not even half way there, lets hope there are no more “hair cuts” for the shareholders.

And am awaiting the hydrostatic testing.

All the best.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Kennas z-t has it correct.



What we have correct is that the company has the historical drill results and is making a claim of xx pounds exploration potential.

Unfortunately, we are not in a position to varrify it. That's my only point. 

The company wouldn't overestimate the potential, of course.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> What we have correct is that the company has the historical drill results and is making a claim of xx pounds exploration potential.
> 
> Unfortunately, we are not in a position to varrify it. That's my only point.
> 
> The company wouldn't overestimate the potential, of course.




1) Historical data was independently analysed by World Industrial Minerals and the results were released to market 7 July 2008.

2) A drilling program carried out in 2008 verified the existence of Uranium and provided the basis for current estimates at Ross and Barber sites, as well as Lance as a whole.  Refer announcement on 14 Oct 2008

It's hard to imagine how you could believe the Uranium has disappeared, especially not after drilling last year has confirmed that Ross, the site of the 40000lb per year pilot ISR plant in the 1978, still has between 6-9 mlbs of Uranium alone.  The historical data is good, and anything above 10 mlbs of recoverable Uranium will send PEN sky-rocketing.

For all his lack of tact and the annoying habit of exagerating everything and only superficially parsing what he's responding to, Jetblack is correct to be focussing on the water situation.  That's the key.  We know the Uranium is there, but the question is whether or not it's recoverable.  Jetblack is scared that CBM mining has sucked all the water out of the Powder River Basin.  So am I, because it'd be a show stopper.  Where we seem to differ is in our tolerance for risk and our interpretation of the impact of CBM mining.

My own view is that high risk is required for high rewards.  When all the doubts have been removed the share price will already have moved much higher.  I'm yet to see any convincing evidence that CBM mining has *already* substantially lowered water levels.  From what I've read CBM operations only artificially lower the water table in a 3 mile radius of their location, and long term effects across the whole area are unlikely until 2017.  The reality is no one knows what the truth is.  Not jetblack, not warwick, not me, so no one should be arguing as if they know 100% what the situation is.  It's all about using your judgement and putting an appropriate amount of money in to suit your own tolerance for risk and whatever your trading plan is.  Right now, I'm comfortable with the amount of money I stand to lose if the worst comes to pass because I think the probability of that is quite small.

z-trader


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> 1) Historical data was independently analysed by World Industrial Minerals and the results were released to market 7 July 2008.
> 
> 2) A drilling program carried out in 2008 verified the existence of Uranium and provided the basis for current estimates at Ross and Barber sites, as well as Lance as a whole.  Refer announcement on 14 Oct 2008
> 
> It's hard to imagine how you could believe the Uranium has disappeared,



You're missing my point.

Please show me YOUR analysis of the exploration potential. 

Look, it might be there, but you're relying on the analysis of the company.

What WE need is lengths x widths x depths x average grades x density factors for a guestimate of a potential resource base.

Or, however you do it for these types of deposits.

If you can do that, then great. 

Otherwise, you're at the mercy of the company. If you believe them, all well and good.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> You're missing my point.
> 
> Please show me YOUR analysis of the exploration potential.
> 
> Look, it might be there, but you're relying on the analysis of the company.
> 
> What WE need is lengths x widths x depths x average grades x density factors for a guestimate of a potential resource base.
> 
> Or, however you do it for these types of deposits.
> 
> If you can do that, then great.
> 
> Otherwise, you're at the mercy of the company. If you believe them, all well and good.




Taking paranoia to that level isn't practical.  Did you read the entire announcement on 14 Oct 2008?  At the bottom you'll find the confirmation drilling data.

I don't understand how you can practically be that paranoid.  The only way to know how much Uranium is there is to drill.  The only company willing to pay for drilling in that area is Peninsula, but you don't trust anything Peninsula reports, even when independently verified!  So there's no way for you to ever be convinced as far as I can see.

What exactly are you waiting for?  

z-trader


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Taking paranoia to that level isn't practical.



Seen too many people get burnt by dis and mis information. 

I suppose all us mug investors can do is believe the company. 

Hope these guys are on the ball for holders.

All I can recommend for potential investors is to DYO research research research. And for me that goes beyond believing what is written in a power point presentation. Maybe I've just got too much time on my hands.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> Seen too many people get burnt by dis and mis information.
> 
> I suppose all us mug investors can do is believe the company.
> 
> Hope these guys are on the ball for holders.
> 
> All I can recommend for potential investors is to DYO research research research. And for me that goes beyond believing what is written in a power point presentation. Maybe I've just got too much time on my hands.




I agree totally kennas.  You're very wise in my opinion.  Trust no one in the financial world is how I approach it too.  However, I don't know how we can get information on contained Uranium except through the company itself.  If you've got a better way I'd love to know what it is because the more I can minimise the need for trust the better my odds are.

All the best.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Highlites from the announcement today:

*LANCE PROJECT: CORE TESTS RETURN POSITIVE RESULTS & DRILLING RE-COMMENCES

Highlights

* Excellent permeability and porosity results achieved from drill core tests confirm historic testing and the applicability of ISR mining methods

* Drilling re-commences at the Lance Projects targeting extensions of mineralisation at Ross and Barber*

This is further confirmation that the site still has all the properties required for a successful In Situ Recovery operation as it did in the late 1970s.  We now know that water can flow through the aquifers at well above the rate required for efficient profitable operation.  Now we need re-confirmation of the hydrological situation, however with a successful plant at the same site in the past, higher annual rainfall than in the 70s, and no credible cause to believe the aquifers have been significantly drawn down, IMHO the risk of not reaching development is minimal.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

They have proved porosity in the sandstone pockets, not hard to do. It seems though that the primary rock in the area is shale, not a porous rock and indicative of coal in the Powder River Area.

IMO it means that any potential ISR will be spanned over quite a large area due to these pockets of sandstone, this will change the overall uranium extracted (alot of these historical holes will be duds), when they define a mineral resource.  They are just only scratching the surface. 

All the best.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> They have proved porosity in the sandstone pockets, not hard to do. It seems though that the primary rock in the area is shale, not a porous rock and indicative of coal in the Powder River Area.
> 
> IMO it means that any potential ISR will be spanned over quite a large area due to these pockets of sandstone, this will change the overall uranium extracted (alot of these historical holes will be duds), when they define a mineral resource.  They are just only scratching the surface.
> 
> All the best.




Here's an important snippet you missed (hidden nearly half way down on page 2). ;-)

"The mineralised sandstone units commonly contain thin (one foot or less thick) splits of siltstone and *shale* with low permeability’s. Hydrologic testing by the NuBeth JV showed that these discontinuous shale splits *do not significantly affect the permeability of the sand units, and tend to increase the ratio of horizontal to vertical permeability, which is advantageous* in helping control the flow of solution during ISR mining. This is typical of uraniferous sandstone units in Wyoming. The permeability of the sandstones tested, commonly over 2,000 mD (and up to over 5,000 mD) meets or exceeds that of nearby ISR Projects currently operating or being developed."

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> This is typical of uraniferous sandstone units in Wyoming. The permeability of the sandstones tested, commonly over 2,000 mD (and up to over 5,000 mD) meets or exceeds that of nearby ISR Projects currently operating or being developed."
> 
> z-trader





So 6 out of 24 holes were between 2000mD - 5000mD thats 25% success .  Based on this sample means potential Uranium extracted could be only 25% of PEN estimates.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> So 6 out of 24 holes were between 2000mD - 5000mD thats 25% success .  Based on this sample means potential Uranium extracted could be only 25% of PEN estimates.




Jet, if you look at the table contained in the report you'll see that there were only *four* holes (RMRD0001 - 4) drilled and from those 4 holes 24 core samples were analysed from different depths.  Each hole has sections of porous and non-porous material, at different depths.  The requirement for successful In Situ Recovery is a porous layer (aka a "roll front") containing Uranium sandwiched between two non-porous layers.  So even at a site with geology that simple, you get 2 sections of non-porous material for every 1 section of Uranium bearing porous sediment.  

The interesting thing about Lance is that we know from drilling in the 2nd half of 2008 that some drill holes intercepted up to 5 stacked roll fronts on top of each other.  The more Uranium deposits stacked on top of each other at different depths the better the ratio between well fields and recoverable pounds.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Z, thanks for correcting that. But it would seem then from the table hole 1 & 2 are not that great.  Which is 50/50 result.

How many core samples from a hole with 2000mD - 5000mD are needed before its deemed to be successful?  Mind you there has been no mention of any water contained in these holes that were sampled.

Very small sample size we are dealing with.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> Z, thanks for correcting that. But it would seem then from the table hole 1 & 2 are not that great.  Which is 50/50 result.
> 
> How many core samples from a hole with 2000mD - 5000mD are needed before its deemed to be successful?  Mind you there has been no mention of any water contained in these holes that were sampled.
> 
> Very small sample size we are dealing with.




Yeah, but you're criticising from the perspective that you need to be close to 100% sure it's a profitable Uranium mine.  By the time there's that much certainty, there will be very little profit left.

The historical data is valid enough to be used for JORC so I don't think you should be ignoring it as much as you are.  It took 8 years to drill out and analyse the historical data.  You should ask yourself why Peninsula doesn't have to spend 8 years redrilling and redefining Lance.  The answer is that the historical data carries a lot of weight.  Sure PEN needs to do some confirmation drilling and confirm hydrology and metallurgy, but the key word is "confirm".  That's all that is being done.  There's already a huge database of information, and so far it has proven several times to be consistent with the confirmation drilling and analysis.  I already have a 70% degree of confidence in the historical data, whereas you seem to have 0-10% confidence in it.

Suspecting that water levels/pressure might have changed is reasonable even though you haven't made a strong case, but worrying that rock formations have significantly changed in a mere 30 years is going a bit far IMO.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I dont have a risk/return profile for this stock so I'm not affected by its share price, I stated this in my first post on PEN.

I dont know what all the historical grades for the area are, Do you?  All I know is that the company have painted a picture with a very large brush. 

Z, as you are 70% confident can you tell me, 
How much core samples from a hole between 2000mD-5000mD is needed for it to be ISR worthy? 

I note hole two had only one core sample and also the majority of cores were deep, (I say this as Mr Grigor talked about depth), or is this not considered deep by ISR standards?


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> I dont know what all the historical grades for the area are, Do you?  All I know is that the company have painted a picture with a very large brush.




Of course I know what the historical grades are.  I've actually read PEN's announcements.  If you had read their announcements, then you'd know too, and then perhaps you'd even have a rational basis for judging the company.  Saying they've "painted a picture with a very large brush" when you don't even know the basics is ridiculous.  If you don't know the facts, you aren't in a position to judge whether the company is distorting them or not.



> Z, as you are 70% confident can you tell me,
> How much core samples from a hole between 2000mD-5000mD is needed for it to be ISR worthy?




Milli Darcys (mD) are a measure of flow rate.  The faster the flow rate, the faster the recovery of Uranium.  A milli darcy rate of 500 is considered acceptable for profitable ISR mining, so Lance has a good margin of safety.



> I note hole two had only one core sample and also the majority of cores were deep, (I say this as Mr Grigor talked about depth), or is this not considered deep by ISR standards?




120-160m is not considered deep.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Milli Darcys (mD) are a measure of flow rate.  The faster the flow rate, the faster the recovery of Uranium.  A milli darcy rate of 500 is considered acceptable for profitable ISR mining, so Lance has a good margin of safety.




The 500mD was footnoted in the announcement from the "Pounds in the Ground" article. I cant find any reference in that article which says that 500mD is considered acceptable for profitable ISR mining.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> The 500mD was footnoted in the announcement from the "Pounds in the Ground" article. I cant find any reference in that article which says that 500mD is considered acceptable for profitable ISR mining.




Maybe you could try looking for the answers to your questions.  I find this site pretty useful for finding answers:

www.google.com

;-)

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I was also wondering why PEN did not elaborate further by marrying the grade results  of the four holes chosen from 3rd November 2008 with their latest core results.

Assuming 500mD is acceptable ISR does that also mean its economical?


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Here's an interesting fact:

If the 4 trillion gallons of water predicted to be withdrawn from the Powder River Basin by Coal Bed Methane mining in the Powder River Basin by 2015-2017 were withdrawn tomorrow it would only lower the ground water level by about 25-30 cm.

FYI: The Powder River Basin spans about 22000 square miles and is estimated to contain approximately 3.6 x 10^13 cubic feet of ground water.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Z, thanks for the fact, but it has alot to do with the recharging of aquifiers, when I mentioned "show me the water", it was more to do with their hydro testing.

As the recharging of aquifiers is a vital part of ISR mining. Not all of the Powder River basin shares the same lithology. PEN's area is in the Belle Fourche River Basin. The primary rock there is shale as evident in PEN's latest core samples. 


Here is a link which you might like to look at, it mentions that shale layers impede recharging as it talks about aquifiers. As it does mention that the Sundance area is a productive aquifier, but aquifiers also serve farming irrigation purposes so we dont know for certain the relience for that sector on this aquifier.


http://www.scribd.com/doc/1557352/USGS-hydrologicbudgets

Anyway, having said that PEN have loads more work to do on ths area. Historical data is everywhere, most if not all the major and Junior Uranium companies that are in the Powder River Basin are loaded with historical data, but they still have to drill quite a number of holes in the ground and do thorough testing. 

So, I will now just watch and see what PEN's hydro test brings.


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This is the last I post on this stock until there is more clarification regarding the pump test yet to be conducted on the site.  If anything this post is basically to re-instate the previous comment I made regarding the better part of ISR mining is in the south of the Powder River Basin.

I’m not trying what-so-ever to down ramp this stock but there are a few things that did not sit with me, it was more to do with the large brush strokes the company uses to paint its picture when there is quite a lot of detail yet to be confirmed. I also don’t want to parrot fashion PEN’s announcements and say “well there is your answer”

 I was curious as to what did happen with the Excalibur projects that were mentioned in the “Pounds in the Ground” article as they were talking about pump testing this area, as it was in the north east of the Powder River Basin I thought it has the closest of nearology I could find.  It’s all public record you can search for it on Uranez Energy Corp web site.

Anyway I emailed the company and the CEO very graciously and generously wrote back to me.  Here is an answer regarding the pump test to the Excalibur area from the CEO. Please note that irrespective of it being from a different company (a large one at that) this is merely to give those out there some guide or a further education as to what is yet to be or can be expected from ISR mining. (Nichols and Hank are part of Excalibur properties)

“As to your questions regarding hydrogeology and pump tests; numerous pump tests were conducted at both Nichols Ranch and Hank as part of the permitting process and as part of our technical evaluation of the properties.  The details and results of the aquifer pump tests are included in our permit applications.  Two tables from the license applications that summarize the pump test results are attached.  In general, the hydraulic conductivity (permeability) is less than 500 MD but is still adequate for solution mining.  *Typically, in the Powder River Basin, the uranium ore-sands have higher hydraulic conductivity in the southern part of the basin and get less permeable as you go to the north. * Cameco’s Smith Ranch solution mine in the south has better permeability, in general, than our properties in the north.  However, we are satisfied that the hydraulic conductivity is adequate for solution mining as our management team conducted two test solution mining operations near our Nichols Ranch property back in the early 1980s when they worked for Uranerz USA, Inc. (the old Uranerz). “

DYOR, and all the best.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> Z, thanks for the fact, but it has alot to do with the recharging of aquifiers, when I mentioned "show me the water", it was more to do with their hydro testing.
> 
> As the recharging of aquifiers is a vital part of ISR mining. Not all of the Powder River basin shares the same lithology. PEN's area is in the Belle Fourche River Basin. The primary rock there is shale as evident in PEN's latest core samples.




I don't think you really understand the lithology.  There's multiple lithologies stacked on top of each other from different ages in the past.  The lance formation, and the fort union formations are mostly sandstone.  However, above, below and in between there are layers of shale, etc.  It's expected, and in some cases it actually helps (ie shale splits).



> Here is a link which you might like to look at, it mentions that shale layers impede recharging as it talks about aquifiers. As it does mention that the Sundance area is a productive aquifier, but aquifiers also serve farming irrigation purposes so we dont know for certain the relience for that sector on this aquifier.




Lance is above the Lance formation at the edge of the Powder River Basin, not the Sundance or Gypsum formation in the black hills.




> http://www.scribd.com/doc/1557352/USGS-hydrologicbudgets




An interesting doc, but I don't think it's very relevant to Lance as it covers a different area with different lithology.



> Anyway, having said that PEN have loads more work to do on ths area. Historical data is everywhere, most if not all the major and Junior Uranium companies that are in the Powder River Basin are loaded with historical data, but they still have to drill quite a number of holes in the ground and do thorough testing.
> 
> So, I will now just watch and see what PEN's hydro test brings.




Meh.  Your posts are really just convoluted ways of saying you have low risk tolerance, and haven't researched thoroughly enough to mitigate any risk.  Pity talking about your trading style isn't that relevant in the PEN thread.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> This is the last I post on this stock until there is more clarification regarding the pump test yet to be conducted on the site.  If anything this post is basically to re-instate the previous comment I made regarding the better part of ISR mining is in the south of the Powder River Basin.




PEN isn't in the north of the Powder River Basin.  The north stretches well into Montana.  Besides which "better" means nothing.  $1000001 is better than $1000000, but I'd still be happy with either.  It's an extremely weak criticism based on extremely lazy research.



> I’m not trying what-so-ever to down ramp this stock but there are a few things that did not sit with me, it was more to do with the large brush strokes the company uses to paint its picture when there is quite a lot of detail yet to be confirmed. I also don’t want to parrot fashion PEN’s announcements and say “well there is your answer”




Yeah, you probably aren't trying to down ramp.  Just defending your view.  I don't think your view is based on much though.  It amounts to a generalised fear of the unknown.  If that's your trading style, then cool, but I'm not sure why you think you need to share your fears with us.



> I was curious as to what did happen with the Excalibur projects that were mentioned in the “Pounds in the Ground” article as they were talking about pump testing this area, as it was in the north east of the Powder River Basin I thought it has the closest of nearology I could find.  It’s all public record you can search for it on Uranez Energy Corp web site.
> 
> Anyway I emailed the company and the CEO very graciously and generously wrote back to me.  Here is an answer regarding the pump test to the Excalibur area from the CEO. Please note that irrespective of it being from a different company (a large one at that) this is merely to give those out there some guide or a further education as to what is yet to be or can be expected from ISR mining. (Nichols and Hank are part of Excalibur properties)
> 
> “As to your questions regarding hydrogeology and pump tests; numerous pump tests were conducted at both Nichols Ranch and Hank as part of the permitting process and as part of our technical evaluation of the properties.  The details and results of the aquifer pump tests are included in our permit applications.  Two tables from the license applications that summarize the pump test results are attached.  In general, the hydraulic conductivity (permeability) is less than 500 MD but is still adequate for solution mining.  *Typically, in the Powder River Basin, the uranium ore-sands have higher hydraulic conductivity in the southern part of the basin and get less permeable as you go to the north. * Cameco’s Smith Ranch solution mine in the south has better permeability, in general, than our properties in the north.  However, we are satisfied that the hydraulic conductivity is adequate for solution mining as our management team conducted two test solution mining operations near our Nichols Ranch property back in the early 1980s when they worked for Uranerz USA, Inc. (the old Uranerz). “
> 
> DYOR, and all the best.




So you check with another company, they tell you results far worse than PEN's are sufficient for profit, and you run screaming?  As I've said several times, this isn't about PEN, it's about your risk tolerance level.  I respect that you trade different to me, but it's annoying that you keep repeating baseless and poorly researched criticisms.  Never once have you made a clear cut argument such as:

1.  CBM depletes water levels within 3 miles
2.  There's a CBM mine near Lance within 3 miles
3.  Therefore you're concerned.

None of your criticisms are specific.  That's my problem with what you've written.  Just seems like you're spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

A little perspective, sorely needed here.

As for "nearology, Lance is 120Kms (to the north) away from Nichols and Hank. Lance is also a lot closer to the rail infrastructure of Gillette and Moorecroft just out of interest.

Very glad you brought up about permeability and porosity as well.

You cite the CEO of Uranez as saying about Nichols - _"...the hydraulic conductivity (permeability) *is less than 500 MD *but is still adequate for solution mining."_

This from PEN's announcement 21st July 2009

"*Core Tests*
_Core Lab, a reservoir characterisation laboratory based in Denver, Colorado, has tested 24 core plugs taken from the four holes cored at Ross in 2008 for porosity, permeability and density. *The samples taken from the uranium hosting sandstone demonstrated very high permeability’s and porosities, averaging 2,400 millidarcy’s (mD)* and 42% porosity. The density determinations will be utilised in resource estimations planned for 2010.
High porosity and permeability values in uranium-enriched sandstones are necessary for the efficient operation of ISR uranium recovery operations. Sandstone permeability’s in excess of 500 mD are acceptable in the ISR industry2. Porosities in excess of 30% are very favourable for ISR recovery of uranium."_
http://www.bourseinvestor.com/bi4/pdfnews/default.asp?d=00970104&f=20090721 

So Nichols has 500mD and Lance has an average of 2,400 mD. Quite a difference there and confirmed.

As for water do a little more homework and you will find PEN has already stated that the uranium hosting sandstone is beneath the top of the water table. Love to point you to this but it is freely available in the announcements on PEN's website. Quite well documented in fact, I am sure you will find it with ease as I did. This will give you an opportunity to learn quite a lot more than what you currently demonstrate here. www.peninsulaminerals.com.au 

You have not brought up one comment that substantiates your view on PEN at Lance. You have however chipped at the edges of other companies and information only to further strengthen PEN's position on each occasion, well done .

Not trying to downramp? Not a bad effort at it though.


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> So you check with another company, they tell you results far worse than PEN's are sufficient for profit, and you run screaming?
> As I've said several times, this isn't about PEN, it's about your risk tolerance level.




Z, I dont have a postion in PEN , I have stated this. So, risk it not of any concern to me. Why I would be running screaming is beyond me, but I guess the fear is actually in yourself, you need to deal with it not compare.

If this is not about PEN then why bother with your line of reasoning or maybe start a thread called "Risk tolerance"

I checked with another company, because that companys CEO was who PEN  quoted from the article "Exploding the Myth : Pounds in the Ground" which in turn PEN  then used and footnoted in their recent announcement concerning their core tests.

If you have a problem with this why dont you run screaming to the management of PEN and ask them why they used it and why they have taken note of such. I dont need to.

As for my spreading fear throughout the PEN community, get a grip. People can make their own informed decissions, or is this something that your afraid of because you didnt factor it into your own risk tolorance profile.

Trade your way, I dont real care how you trade as long as your happy.

All the best.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> Z, I dont have a postion in PEN , I have stated this. So, risk it not of any concern to me. Why I would be running screaming is beyond me, but I guess the fear is actually in yourself, you need to deal with it not compare.
> 
> If this is not about PEN then why bother with your line of reasoning or maybe start a thread called "Risk tolerance"
> 
> I checked with another company, because that companys CEO was who PEN  quoted from the article "Exploding the Myth : Pounds in the Ground" which in turn PEN  then used and footnoted in their recent announcement concerning their core tests.
> 
> If you have a problem with this why dont you run screaming to the management of PEN and ask them why they used it and why they have taken note of such. I dont need to.
> 
> As for my spreading fear throughout the PEN community, get a grip. People can make their own informed decissions, or is this something that your afraid of because you didnt factor it into your own risk tolorance profile.
> 
> Trade your way, I dont real care how you trade as long as your happy.
> 
> All the best.




What does any of that have to do with PEN?  Make a specific argument.  Irrational fear of the sky falling is not a very good reason for us to avoid investing in the company.  Make a rational and specific argument or stop wasting your time here.

z-trader


----------



## Pallen

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Got a link to post but need five to post it.

Relates to Warrick Griggor's presentation at a Canary events seminar. Details the operations in South Africa, the states and also discuss's the Aussie investments.


----------



## Pallen

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

So I'll just post this once more and talk about how bullish I am on this stock especially considering the resource the directors all seem to know they are sitting on, plus the speech also outlines the potential for strategic alliances with Asian investors.


----------



## Pallen

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

http://www.brr.com.au/event/58833/canary-events-uranium-investor-forum-july-09-warwick-grigor-peninsula-minerals

And there we go, feel free to listen in. Looks good, JORC resource a year away, lets remember the market is forward looking.


----------



## Megacents

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Pallen

A nice find, I have looked at it before.

Volume over the last few days 24th-30th (81mill traded 2.6-3.6) looks interesting .

As I said before time will tell.

Megacents

dyor


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Megacents said:


> As I said before time will tell.
> 
> Megacents
> 
> dyor




Yes it will tell, and the interest is beginning to show.

For those who have stated PEN should release the actual historic results, the answer is simple. It is not permitted to release other than Jorc compliant results. This data relates to well before Jorc compliance so it can't be reported.

That said it is clear now that PEN are fast tracking this process for Ross and then Barber. The speed with which the last drill results came out was great to see and I am expecting this to continue throughout the current drill program. Notable they are drilling outside the historic area to expand on the known data.

Yes, time will tell


----------



## Lucky_Country

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hey HangSeng or is it Dhuy now Im confused LOL.

You say they are fast tracking drilling wondering whats the reason behind this ?

Is it a cost related speed up or do they aim to suprise on the production side ?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Lucky_Country said:


> Hey HangSeng or is it Dhuy now Im confused LOL.
> 
> You say they are fast tracking drilling wondering whats the reason behind this ?
> 
> Is it a cost related speed up or do they aim to suprise on the production side ?




A little red herring perhaps Lucky_Country, I think you already know my feelings on that.

Pure specualtion, but I believe the latter.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> For those who have stated PEN should release the actual historic results, the answer is simple. It is not permitted to release other than Jorc compliant results. This data relates to well before Jorc compliance so it can't be reported.




Hi Dhuy...  I know what you mean, but the phrasing was pretty strong.  Different portions of the historical data have been announced 3 times that I'm aware of and WIM even based their initial target of 53-76 million pounds purely on the historical data as well.

You're absolutely correct that the historical data can't be used for JORC compliance though.  To report a "measured" or "proven" resource, PEN must drill again as it's currently doing at a rapid pace.  As you know it's hardly shooting in the dark!  



> Notable they are drilling outside the historic area to expand on the known data.




Anyone who's interested can see what HangSeng means by "expand" here:

http://www.z-trader.com/extra/pendrill.html

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Great work "z-trader" 

I really appreciate the obvious time and effort you have put into that. Thumbs up from me.

Excellent to see the buys coming in today and yesterday. It seems the pressure may be increasing as the fundamentals begin to show what actually is going on.

I trust the naysayers that have frequented here and elsewhere for so long will aslo eventually be fair minded enough to acknowledge how wrong they were.

I will post more in due course but for now time to enjoy the attention PEN is now obviously getting.


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Seems like another ramp this time under the guise of new drilling information.
Just over a year ago + a couple of months a very similar chart pattern. 
Churn it up.

A while back in one of your posts Hangseng you mentioned this 

"The historical data equates in todays terms of around US$60M in drilling costs according to John Simpson, hardly what you would term "not much drilling". PEN DO NOT have to redrill that data to be acceptable for JORC, that is simply another misunderstood aspect generally by the market."

So now to be JORC compliant they cant rely on historical data, does that mean the $60mil of drill savings was BS. 

I'm sure they have good uranium in the area, this is something we all agree on, but IMO they are fast tracking at such a rate is that they have still have do to do the hydrostatic testing which needs  also to  be done in order to apply for a licence for mining.  So the recently raised capital will be used to drill a great many number of holes , probably atleast 200, then hydrostatic testing. I dont think the State of Wyoming will give a licence out for 11 holes drilled.





I'm sure all the naysayers are not against you but just puzzled as its being filled with hype and historical grades which dont amount to much but 11 holes. 

You might want to take a copy of the post and report me to PEN's management.

Best of luck.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> I'm sure all the naysayers are not against you but just puzzled as its being filled with hype and historical grades which dont amount to much but 11 holes.
> 
> You might want to take a copy of the post and report me to PEN's management.
> 
> Best of luck.





Luck won't be required.

There is no what you would like to term so eloquently as "BS" and "hype". That is merely more of your ongoing and erroneous innuendo in relation to PEN. You clearly haven't read past reports in detail and if you had you didn't comprehend them.

You will soon see what is panning out and how the historical data will be used. I no longer need to respond to your negativity. There will be far more and already has been more than 11 holes drilled. The historical drilling as it turns out (you should do some homework on this) equates to far more than the estimate that was given by Gus. 

I do wonder a little about your personal agenda as to why you believe you see a need to save us all from ourselves.

I look forward very much to having another online chat to you in 2 years time. Until then I see no reason to respond to you any further. If there was such a thing as ignore on ASF, you would be my one and only.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> I dont think the State of Wyoming will give a licence out for 11 holes drilled.




How are we supposed to have any respect for you Jetblack when you clearly don't even know how many holes have been drilled?  The holes are numbered!!!!  The last hole was numbered RMR00032.  Add to that the 4 test core holes and you get *36 holes drilled* as of 4 Aug 2009.

Seriously Jetblack, it's pathetic.  You're obviously totally unfamiliar with PEN, the drilling program, geology, and hydrogeology, yet you constantly feel the need to share your opinions.  How can you build solid opinions on such a poor understanding of the fundamentals of the topic you're writing about?

The share price has risen 50% since the last time you shared your ignorance based opinion.  Remember when you were criticising the test core results?  The shares were trading around 3 cents then and you were telling us how bad the results were, yet as always seems to be the case with you, you had *absolutely no idea what you were talking about.*  You thought the data referred to 24 holes when it actually referred to *24 samples from 4 holes.*

When is the penny going to drop Jetblack?  It's clear what's happening here.  You're making major errors in judgement because you're too lazy to do in depth research.  I wonder how many hundreds of percent the shares will advance while you're still coming to grips with learning to count to 36, and how to read a table of data.

Based on the steady flow of errors from you, I see no reason to bother investigating any more of your ridiculous claims.  Couple of weeks ago you were telling us CBM mining had taken all the water.  Now you're implying permitting is a major obstacle.  Nothing you say ever has any substance, and the market knows it (+50%).  

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

z, you like to put the spin on things, as things arent going your way with the stock. I acknowledged my error regarding the the 4 holes previously, but still two of them were duds.

Wether its 11 holes or 36 drilled, makes really no difference PEN will still need to drill at least 10X that amount.

So as the facts stand

Historical results = No JORC
Historical results = No Hydrostatic Tests
Historical Results = No Licence
Historical Results = No Mine
Historical Results = No Asian investors ( LOL another guilded lily by management)

PEN have always been very broad in their information a bit like a horoscope encompasses all of mans activities in a day, they bound to get something right.

Right now they are drilling because they have to, they have raised about 11mil which wont see them through to production. 

In the mean time there will be company stooges like Hangseng and rampers like yourself churning the words of management.  And the stock price will be churned all over once again.

I'm not trying to save anyone, I'm just voicing my opinion, like it or lump it.

In 2 years time I cant wait.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> z, you like to put the spin on things, as things arent going your way with the stock.




HUH?  This is why I have zero respect for you.  IT IS UP NEARLY 50%!!!  How can you think things aren't going my way?



> I acknowledged my error regarding the the 4 holes previously, but still two of them were duds.




It doesn't matter that you acknowledged your error.  The point is that you make really basic mistakes all the time and you obviously aren't familiar with the company.  In other words, your opinion is uninformed.  Even though you don't even understand the data, you're telling us 2 holes were duds.  All holes had great permeability and porosity, 1 hole had low mineralisation.  That's fact.  What you're doing is misinforming and downramping.



> Wether its 11 holes or 36 drilled, makes really no difference PEN will still need to drill at least 10X that amount.




Firstly, you told us it was 200 holes in your last post, now you're saying it's greater than 360!  Based on your previous mistakes, I'll just assume you didn't know what 36 x 10 was.

Some more maths lesson for you: 5.5 holes a week, 52 weeks... Oh, what a surprise, that equals 286 holes!  It's almost like the company has planned to be in production by 2012.  ;-)



> PEN have always been very broad in their information a bit like a horoscope encompasses all of mans activities in a day, they bound to get something right.




You've shown time and time again a complete inability to comprehend the information released.  It's not PEN misleading.  It's you misinterpreting.

z-trader


----------



## FITH

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hit 6 cents during a run on Thursday, fallen off a little but closed over 5 cents at the weekend.  It been moving up slowly for weeks


----------



## Gspot

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Alot of trading and news coming from this company with little movement in price?
With $50million on offer, to get these guys into production, I think getting in around 5c is cheap.  With it being in USA where they are desperate for work, you hope they can bring it under budget? What's not to like here?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

FYI

*Environmentalists Admit Being Wrong for 40 Years - Shackles of Nuclear Power Being Removed *
http://www.oilprice.com/article-env...-shackles-of-nuclear-power-being-removed.html


*Greenpeace Founder Supports Nuclear Power*
Burlington, Vermont - November 6, 2009
http://www.oilprice.com/article-env...-shackles-of-nuclear-power-being-removed.html

_"A co-founder of the environmental activist group Greenpeace argued in favor of nuclear power during Vermont appearances Friday. To many environmentalists, Patrick Moore is a heretic. But Moore urged a classroom of students to think critically about environmental issues -- and not to dismiss nuclear power out of hand. 

Moore addressed a class at Champlain College called the Scientific Revolution. He was a co-founder of Greenpeace, although according to many environmentalists he's been committing heresy. That's because Moore, who heads a consulting firm, challenges common assumptions of the environmental movement, including the linchpin assertion that most global warming is man-made."_


*Greenpeace founder: I was wrong about nuclear power*
http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=...+Search&meta=&rlz=1R2ADFA_enID351&aq=null&oq=


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> FYI
> 
> *Environmentalists Admit Being Wrong for 40 Years - Shackles of Nuclear Power Being Removed *
> http://www.oilprice.com/article-env...-shackles-of-nuclear-power-being-removed.html
> 
> 
> *Greenpeace Founder Supports Nuclear Power*
> Burlington, Vermont - November 6, 2009
> http://www.oilprice.com/article-env...-shackles-of-nuclear-power-being-removed.html
> 
> _"A co-founder of the environmental activist group Greenpeace argued in favor of nuclear power during Vermont appearances Friday. To many environmentalists, Patrick Moore is a heretic. But Moore urged a classroom of students to think critically about environmental issues -- and not to dismiss nuclear power out of hand.
> 
> Moore addressed a class at Champlain College called the Scientific Revolution. He was a co-founder of Greenpeace, although according to many environmentalists he's been committing heresy. That's because Moore, who heads a consulting firm, challenges common assumptions of the environmental movement, including the linchpin assertion that most global warming is man-made."_
> 
> 
> *Greenpeace founder: I was wrong about nuclear power*
> http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=...+Search&meta=&rlz=1R2ADFA_enID351&aq=null&oq=




Hi Hangseng

Thanks and hope you are well.

Great extracts and hopefully peace prevails on Green peace

Notwithstanding PEN is a nuclear hopeful but not sure if your post  has some thing exclusive for PEN 

Regards


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Fine thanks Miner, and same to you and yours.

Not sure if this has been posted here previously but here you go anyway...
http://www.clipattic.com/details.ph...rals Ltd&sessionid=1g0ds5gfjimvf6d839a0cu96d5

Miner nothing specific other than the fact for there to be demand for U3O8,  there must also be a change in sentiment and along with it nuclear energy plants to be built. The article cited clearly heading that way as a significant change in sentiment. As is the one below.

http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=1571
_"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has endorsed nuclear energy as one of the "commercially available climate change mitigating technologies," but IPCC Chairman Rajendra K. Pachauri said nuclear power isn't for everyone. 

"Nuclear energy provides a solution (to our climate change problem), but it’s not a solution (fit) for every country in the world. You need a certain infrastructure, engineering skills and safety standards that are followed very strictly. Not every country can ensure that," he said. 

Construction of more than 100 nuclear reactors is planned world wide over the next ten years, according to the Canadian uranium mining company Cameco. *The global shift toward nuclear power is prompting countries to secure their uranium deliveries with long-term supply agreements and by buying shares in companies producing uranium, reports Reuters."*_

PEN is heading toward being a producer on or before early 2012 now. There can be no denying how advanced they are and the huge potential of Lance alone, let alone Karoo albeit further down the track.


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Fine thanks Miner, and same to you and yours.
> 
> Not sure if this has been posted here previously but here you go anyway...
> http://www.clipattic.com/details.ph...rals Ltd&sessionid=1g0ds5gfjimvf6d839a0cu96d5
> 
> Miner nothing specific other than the fact for there to be demand for U3O8,  there must also be a change in sentiment and along with it nuclear energy plants to be built. The article cited clearly heading that way as a significant change in sentiment. As is the one below.
> 
> http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=1571
> _"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has endorsed nuclear energy as one of the "commercially available climate change mitigating technologies," but IPCC Chairman Rajendra K. Pachauri said nuclear power isn't for everyone.
> 
> "Nuclear energy provides a solution (to our climate change problem), but it’s not a solution (fit) for every country in the world. You need a certain infrastructure, engineering skills and safety standards that are followed very strictly. Not every country can ensure that," he said.
> 
> Construction of more than 100 nuclear reactors is planned world wide over the next ten years, according to the Canadian uranium mining company Cameco. *The global shift toward nuclear power is prompting countries to secure their uranium deliveries with long-term supply agreements and by buying shares in companies producing uranium, reports Reuters."*_
> 
> PEN is heading toward being a producer on or before early 2012 now. There can be no denying how advanced they are and the huge potential of Lance alone, let alone Karoo albeit further down the track.




Good update Hang Seng and thanks.
I also noticed that some of the greenies are now turning into nuclear power against their previous myth.
The real mind block is in Australia where our lack of awareness, cleverly played media / green peace efforts, lack of clear direction from Labour Government has been a road blocker in nuclear power reactor in this country.

Let us hope all the good news makes contribution to PEN along with TOE, BHPB, ERA, AGS and others.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Miner I have also been watching with interest the progress of other uranium miners. PNN, BMN and AGS in particular. Well we had PNN drop out of the race due to high costs. Now we have BMN announcing this from there recent PFS results.

_* Expected *capital costs of US$555 million *for flotation concentrate leaching.
* Expected operating costs for flotation concentrate leaching of US$38/lb U3O8 in the first five years, with an average *life-of-mine cost of US$41/lb* U3O8._

*BMN PFS:*
Capex US$555M
Opex US$41/lb (life of mine)

*PEN estimated forecast PFS:*Capex US$40M (expected to be less)
Opex US$$28.3/lb (life of mine)

I also note in the latest presentation 21/10/09 from PEN the Opex has reduced from US$17/lb to US$15/lb.

I keep saying the benefits of low cost ISR over conventional mining will become the key success factor of Lance and subsequently PEN. 

I continue to watch the progress of others with interest. PEN just looks better by the day.


----------



## wanlad1

*PEN looks ready to run*

PEN has now held its gain day 4 wouldnt be surprised to see end of day run on this one.  Consolidation has been attended next I would expect a run.

Firstly the weekly chart so get an overall picture








This one is the daily chart does not have yesterdays pricing 






Trading is risky money can be lost speak with your advisor before taking the plunge.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN looks ready to run*

Good charting wanlad1, although the rally didn't last long because it was more based on hype and technicals than substance.

The true believers are correct that the coming months could bring fantastic returns (with a positive JORC) but their blinkers prevent them from also seeing that this will be one of the most risky periods for PEN.  Hydrological testing results will be crucial, as will the initial JORC.  IMO Ross is unlikely to be too far from expectations considering the pilot plant in the 70s, but everyone is assuming the same certainty with Barber.  Not so at all IMO, chance there'll be some jaws dropped on that one.  And of course, delays or disappointments will be severely punished by the market, especially in a climate of an increasing Aussie dollar and/or soverign collapses around the world.

Don't underestimate the impact a rising dollar could have.  The hartley's valuation of the project assumed an 80 cent exchange rate.  Four experts on lateline a couple of weeks ago predicted parity or higher by mid year.  That would lop off around 25% of the hartley's valuation, which is likely to be overly optimistic anyway given that Gus's brother works at hartley's.  I still believe in PEN, but BMN showed the same lacklustre performance before its crucial announcement and many were caught with their pants down when the tide went out.

Then there's also the much talked about 100ppm cutoff.  I'm very curious about that because the tails of roll fronts can spread out for miles and can be extremely expensive to suck out of the ground.  Most pen folk have no clue about the costs of various well patterns and how severely those costs can eat into profits if spread out over a large enough area.  I'm certainly going to be taking a real close look at the numbers once more info is released.

z-trader


----------



## Deepen

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Obama's large cash injection to the nuclear energy cause last night will likely help PEN's cause. I like the fact that PEN are actually about to mine (ISR) IN USA where the demand is on the doorstep. 

Not sure about the blinkers comment, as I think all the long termers are well aware of the problems, having seen the price held down so well for so long.
It will be good to see the leash let off one day in the not too distant future.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Deepen said:


> Obama's large cash injection to the nuclear energy cause last night will likely help PEN's cause. I like the fact that PEN are actually about to mine (ISR) IN USA where the demand is on the doorstep.
> 
> Not sure about the blinkers comment, as I think all the long termers are well aware of the problems, having seen the price held down so well for so long.
> It will be good to see the leash let off one day in the not too distant future.




Yeah, the USA getting back into nuclear is a big thumb up but unfortunately PEN isn't involved in the building of plants because that's where you'd want to be in the nuclear industry right now.  Future shortfalls, schnooture schmortfalls.   Few have bothered to update their views of Uranium shortfalls from 2007.  I still read the same out of date story (not suggesting that's what you're doing) repeated nearly every week.  One key fallacy is that the Russian downgraded supply will end.  It's only the megatonnes to megawatts *program* that is ending.  The Russians are likely to continue supplying down graded Uranium outside the program after 2013.  I've read that they already plan to sell some directly to US utilities, and the rest will reduce worldwide demand regardless of whether it supplies their own nuclear plants or those of other countries.

That's the short term though.  In the medium to long term I still think shortages loom, since despite Copenhagen being billed as a failure, I've seen a steady stream of news from big and small countries starting or restarting their nuclear power programs.  There may be no meaningful binding targets yet, but there definitely seems to be a lot of action.

z-trader


----------



## reichman

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Z

I've always read your posts re. PEN on this forum. Your back and forth banter with jetblack last year was highly informative. He was negative, you positive.

Your last couple of posts, whilst not overtly negative, do appear to fly in the face of your exceedingly bullish sentiments during your ongoing jetblack debates from seven or so months back.

For a seemingly calm, anything but over the top poster, your post from July 15 was as bullish as anything I've read on this forum.

"In summary, PEN could be sitting on 100mlbs in Wyoming and 150mlbs in South Africa, and management are deliberately holding off on JORC compliance so that they can remain under the radar for now. For reference, Extract Resources (SP: $6.77, MC: 1.2billion+) is expected to report a total of between 250-300mlbs at Rossing South next month. Extract has a lot of other things going for it, but not enough to explain why its 250mlbs at 450ppm is worth over $1.2 billion while PEN's 250mlbs at 700ppm+ is only worth $30-40 million. When the market officially wakes up to this reality I hope to see a significant re-rating. It'll never be another Extract, but I think a quarter or half of Extract is realistic and fair. Just give it a few years".

Now is that a wrap for PEN, or is that a wrap for PEN!!!

Z - I would have thought that PEN has progressed since July 09 in the positive and pro-active way that most would have anticipated, so I'm finding it somewhat confusing as to why you appear to be losing the patience you told your fellow readers to have. 

Why the change of heart?

Regards
Reichman


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I was not comming back to this thread, until two years had passed as that was when HS said he would see me.

Why the change of heart Z man?

Many think I was negative but thats their opinion and good luck to them.

Everyone talks of boxes ticked by PEN, many many many boxes to go I'm afraid.

Uranium, really isnt my thing, I've said it before that Uranium is overrated.

Dirty smelly stuff.


Gas is the energy, bigger than what U will be, imo.


Good to see you not ramping Z man.   I've noticed that some have given you a hard time, but atleast your putting forward alternative views.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



reichman said:


> Z - I would have thought that PEN has progressed since July 09 in the positive and pro-active way that most would have anticipated, so I'm finding it somewhat confusing as to why you appear to be losing the patience you told your fellow readers to have.
> 
> Why the change of heart?




How has the progress mitigated the risks I'm talking about above?  And if you look at my posting history you'll see that, while positive, I've always mentioned risk.  Furthermore, you should expect my views to change as more information comes in.  Back in July I wasn't aware that the Russians would continue supply after 2013 and I wouldn't have been confident that the AUD would reach parity.  It might be considered an admirable quality to never change your view on an issue (hence the stupid focus on "flipflopping" in politics) but intelligent people adjust their views as more information comes in.  It'd be great for once to see your journalistic style applied to checking facts about pen rather than pseudo-analysis of the writer.  Writers change, moods change, facts change, context changes, time contraints to write accurately change, etc, etc.  If you go looking for inconsistencies you'll find them in non-professional writing over a lengthy period.  Drawing conclusions though is often pretty superficial and useless unless you're aiming at A Current Affair style sensationalism.

If you give me six lines written by the most honest man, I will find something in them to hang him. ””Cardinal Richelieu

Jetblack, same answer for you.  I stated dozens of times in our exchanges that there is risk and that perhaps I have a higher tolerance of it than you do.  I still disagree with the specific doubts you raised.  ie CBM depleting all the water, etc.  For me disagreement means I don't think the evidence you presented was compelling.  Doesn't mean you couldn't turn out to be correct, just means that in my judgement the risks appear low enough to tolerate.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Jetblack, same answer for you.  I stated dozens of times in our exchanges that there is risk and that perhaps I have a higher tolerance of it than you do.  I still disagree with the specific doubts you raised.  ie CBM depleting all the water, etc.  For me disagreement means I don't think the evidence you presented was compelling.  Doesn't mean you couldn't turn out to be correct, just means that in my judgement the risks appear low enough to tolerate.
> 
> z-trader




Z, i still dont own any shares in the company so I have no tolerances to the stock.

Z man, forever the mincer of words and selective editing.  


Its good that you have noticed the hydrological angle aswell.

I've spent too long here. I wish you well.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> Z, i still dont own any shares in the company so I have no tolerances to the stock.
> 
> Z man, forever the mincer of words and selective editing.




Oh come on jet.  I never understood this type of response from you.  This pattern repeated several times between us.  Surely your decision to not own shares is a reflection of you perceiving a worse risk/reward ration than me?  That's all I mean.  No mincing.

z-trader


----------



## reichman

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> How has the progress mitigated the risks I'm talking about above?  And if you look at my posting history you'll see that, while positive, I've always mentioned risk.  Furthermore, you should expect my views to change as more information comes in.  Back in July I wasn't aware that the Russians would continue supply after 2013 and I wouldn't have been confident that the AUD would reach parity.  It might be considered an admirable quality to never change your view on an issue (hence the stupid focus on "flipflopping" in politics) but intelligent people adjust their views as more information comes in.  It'd be great for once to see your journalistic style applied to checking facts about pen rather than pseudo-analysis of the writer.  Writers change, moods change, facts change, context changes, time contraints to write accurately change, etc, etc.  If you go looking for inconsistencies you'll find them in non-professional writing over a lengthy period.  Drawing conclusions though is often pretty superficial and useless unless you're aiming at A Current Affair style sensationalism.
> 
> If you give me six lines written by the most honest man, I will find something in them to hang him. ””Cardinal Richelieu
> 
> Jetblack, same answer for you.  I stated dozens of times in our exchanges that there is risk and that perhaps I have a higher tolerance of it than you do.  I still disagree with the specific doubts you raised.  ie CBM depleting all the water, etc.  For me disagreement means I don't think the evidence you presented was compelling.  Doesn't mean you couldn't turn out to be correct, just means that in my judgement the risks appear low enough to tolerate.
> 
> z-trader




Appreciate the depth of your response Z. 

Rightly or wrongly, I have PEN in my portfolio of stochs. Not wishing to speak for you, or assume something incorrectly, as I still get the strong feeling you remain a shareholder of PEN, would you be so kind as to confirm whether this is indeed still the case.

Regards
Reichman


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Z man, because I dont own a stock doesnt mean I have more or less tolerance than you. No-one likes to lose money irrespective of the tolerance one posseses.
I'm not debating if you have a greater threshold to the price of this stock, I have no interest in your threshold. 

My very opening post was that I was interested in the stock but I could see that this stock has been churned, and its been churned since the meteoric rise to about 11c back in 2006. During which time an  public options issue was made and all the Directors had options to convert set at pretty high prices, but thats all fixed now since they gave performance bonus issue wipping off those il timed option converts.

You will probably see it get churned again close to the options expiry date to. 

These guys are going to need more $$$ . Because ISR is cheap re extraction I dont disagree with your recent comments about the hydrological extraction, the expense is setting up.

One more thing a 3million ton processing plant is no big deal, Strathmore were commisioning a 4million ton. Why build a 2 when a 3 is just as much and sounds better.

I said this previously that I would have thought they would have announced a JV which would have been more receptive by the market.

Now I read on other forum clowns comparing it to Fortesque.

Z man we have had our talks over the past , and I really wish you well.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



reichman said:


> Appreciate the depth of your response Z.
> 
> Rightly or wrongly, I have PEN in my portfolio of stochs. Not wishing to speak for you, or assume something incorrectly, as I still get the strong feeling you remain a shareholder of PEN, would you be so kind as to confirm whether this is indeed still the case.
> 
> Regards
> Reichman




Long with greater than 20% of my portfolio.

How about you Reichman?  How much of your portfolio is in PEN today?

I'd also like to know why your inquisitorial approach isn't applied to those you've developed social relationships with over the years and/or those who write quite optimistically about PEN and seem incapable of acknowledging negatives with the same attention to detail that they address positives.

Where's the balance?

z-trader


----------



## reichman

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> Z man, because I dont own a stock doesnt mean I have more or less tolerance than you. No-one likes to lose money irrespective of the tolerance one posseses.
> I'm not debating if you have a greater threshold to the price of this stock, I have no interest in your threshold.
> 
> My very opening post was that I was interested in the stock but I could see that this stock has been churned, and its been churned since the meteoric rise to about 11c back in 2006. During which time an  public options issue was made and all the Directors had options to convert set at pretty high prices, but thats all fixed now since they gave performance bonus issue wipping off those il timed option converts.
> 
> You will probably see it get churned again close to the options expiry date to.
> 
> These guys are going to need more $$$ . Because ISR is cheap re extraction I dont disagree with your recent comments about the hydrological extraction, the expense is setting up.
> 
> One more thing a 3million ton processing plant is no big deal, Strathmore were commisioning a 4million ton. Why build a 2 when a 3 is just as much and sounds better.
> 
> I said this previously that I would have thought they would have announced a JV which would have been more receptive by the market.
> 
> Now I read on other forum clowns comparing it to Fortesque.
> 
> Z man we have had our talks over the past , and I really wish you well.




Fair call re. the Fortesque comparison jetblack. Perhaps a little bit like Z comparing Pen to be a half of Extract. That was a big call too I s'pose. 
Time will tell whether Z is proven right, or whether he winds up falling into the mouth open, move head from side to side category.

Regards
Reichman


----------



## reichman

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Long with greater than 20% of my portfolio.
> 
> How about you Reichman?  How much of your portfolio is in PEN today?
> 
> I'd also like to know why your inquisitorial approach isn't applied to those you've developed social relationships with over the years and/or those who write quite optimistically about PEN and seem incapable of acknowledging negatives with the same attention to detail that they address positives.
> 
> Where's the balance?
> 
> z-trader




I have a little higher perecentage than you Z. I'm not a trader, so if things pan out, great, and if they don't, well it's money that I can afford to lose.
Re. your other query, if someone else tells me that they think PEN is a potential half Extract, only to lessen their bullishness down the track when the 250mlbs still very much appears to be there to mine, I'll probably respectfully ask them the question also. Thankyou for responding, albeit I thought, in a tad harsher tone than I would have expected.
Re. your assertion that certain people seem incapable of acknowledging negatives, you'll need to provide me with further information. I am aware of several people bullish towards PEN, but I'm yet to find someone that falls into the category to which you refer.
I have asked/questioned people previously re. other shares in the manner to which you refer.  Hope that helps.
Anyway, great to know, indeed, extremely encouraging to read that you still hold 20% of your portfolio with PEN. You indicate that you are a full time trader, so knowing you have PEN as a significant part of your portfolio gives me great hope for PEN moving forward.
Best wishes
Reichman


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



reichman said:


> Re. your other query, if someone else tells me that they think PEN is a potential half Extract, only to lessen their bullishness down the track when the 250mlbs still very much appears to be there to mine, I'll probably respectfully ask them the question also. Thankyou for responding, albeit I thought, in a tad harsher tone than I would have expected.




I've got another question for you Reichman, if you'd be so kind to answer it:

Have you ever received an email from someone suggesting that they have information about PEN that has not yet been released to market?  Information about the probable number of future announcements and/or the content of those announcements for instance?

In summary, are you willing to publicly state that you've never had access to inside information or any information that was construed as inside information by the author in correspondence with you?

z-trader


----------



## reichman

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

What a very strange post Z. 

No, I've never had any information that any reasonable person would construe as inside information. Why? Have you?

I have however heard about people sending intimidating emails and implying such nonsense.

Best wishes 
Reichman


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN looks ready to run*



z-trader said:


> IMO Ross is unlikely to be too far from expectations considering the pilot plant in the 70s, but everyone is assuming the same certainty with Barber.  *Not so at all IMO, chance there'll be some jaws dropped on that one*.
> 
> Then there's also the much talked about 100ppm cutoff.  I'm very curious about that because the *tails of roll fronts can spread out for miles *and can be extremely expensive to suck out of the ground.  Most pen folk have no clue about the costs of various well patterns and how severely those costs can eat into profits if spread out over a large enough area.  I'm certainly going to be taking a real close look at the numbers once more info is released.
> z-trader




z-trader I am interested to know why do you believe _"there'll be some jaws dropped on that one"_ regarding Barber?

Although the tails do spread out for miles but the extraction area is at the nose of the roll fronts. This in effect draws the solution to the roll front areas. This is the key to what they are trying to achieve right now with the current drilling program. They have indicated as much that they are now targeting those areas. They won't be placing extraction equipment all along the tails as you seem to be suggesting.

They also haven't stated there will be a 100ppm cut-off, all they have stated is a mention of grades above 100ppm. That is being stated by many others but not by PEN. We won't know what they are going to indicate until the jorc is announced. Anything else is assumption and speculation at this stage.

I to await the final information regarding Jorc and especially the hydrology results and the final indicated flow rate and head grade to be used, the real measures of ISR production.

Cheers
HS


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



reichman said:


> What a very strange post Z.
> 
> No, I've never had any information that any reasonable person would construe as inside information. Why? Have you?
> 
> I have however heard about people sending intimidating emails and implying such nonsense.
> 
> Best wishes
> Reichman




Thankyou for responding, albeit I thought, in a tad harsher tone than I would have expected.  I understand it may seem like a strange question and I respect your willingness to respond to what is essentially none of my business.  After seeing you interrogate others for over a year, it speaks volumes for your integrity that you're willing to answer somewhat intrusive questions instead of ask them.

With respect, I'd just like to clarify something in your answer though.  You said you've never received anything that a reasonable person would construe as inside information.  However, that only addresses half of the question I asked.  So that no one is left with any doubt about the situation, can you also confirm that you haven't received any correspondence where the *author* has implied or otherwise construed that they are passing on information not yet released to market where the information would likely to have a material impact on the share price.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN looks ready to run*



hangseng said:


> z-trader I am interested to know why do you believe _"there'll be some jaws dropped on that one"_ regarding Barber?




With all due respect you omitted the word "chance" from the quote, and ignored the previous sentence. Completely changes the meaning.



> Although the tails do spread out for miles but the extraction area is at the nose of the roll fronts.




Each well pattern can only address a limited amount of area.  I don't believe well patterns addressing the nose can also address the whole tail if it stretches out for miles.  That means more well patterns and more cost.  All academic though until we know the well pattern used, the spacing, costs, recovery rate, and other details.  I just noted it as an area of interest.  Not drawing any conclusions yet, but will be keeping a close eye on it.

z-trader


----------



## reichman

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

By any chance Z, have you previously posted on another stock forum under the names of Depth Trader and/or Stochman?

On second thought, don't worry about it Z. But you have a good day and let's hope that both of us 'longs' get some joy from holding PEN in the months ahead.

Regards
Reichman


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



reichman said:


> By any chance Z, have you previously posted on another stock forum under the names of Depth Trader and/or Stochman?
> 
> On second thought, don't worry about it Z. But you have a good day and let's hope that both of us 'longs' get some joy from holding PEN in the months ahead.
> 
> Regards
> Reichman




Since you took the time to reply to my post, I'm baffled why you didn't respond to the central question (how hard is it to simply write "no"?).  Very puzzling so I hope you clarify the issue as you've asked others to do so many times in the past.  

I'll repeat the question Reichman.  *Can you also confirm that you haven't received any correspondence where the author has implied or otherwise construed that they are passing on information not yet released to market where the information would be likely to have a material impact on the share price.*

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN looks ready to run*



z-trader said:


> With all due respect you omitted the word "chance" from the quote, and ignored the previous sentence. Completely changes the meaning.
> 
> z-trader




Ok point taken, so why do you believe there may be a "chance" as you indicate?

If chance is taken as odds then the odds are in favour of a very positive outcome so far. Unless you have seen or heard anything to the contrary, I definately haven't and not from lack of trying.

As for the water flow, hydraulics is a marvellous aspect of physics. So much like electricity it will take the path of least resistance. The distance becomes irrellevant apart from it increases capacity to recover from the ore body. Back to permeability and "Darcy ratings", both of which are in favour of a very positive outcome at both Ross and Barber.


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> .
> 
> I'll repeat the question Reichman.  *Can you also confirm that you haven't received any correspondence where the author has implied or otherwise construed that they are passing on information not yet released to market where the information would be likely to have a material impact on the share price.*
> 
> z-trader




Personally think that anyone that would engage in any such conversation on a PUBLIC INTERNET FORUM would need there heads read.

But hey makes for intresting reading.

as you were.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN looks ready to run*



hangseng said:


> Ok point taken, so why do you believe there may be a "chance" as you indicate?




I thought I made it clear in the previous sentence why.  There's much more certainty surrounding Ross than Barber, because Ross is where the pilot plant was successfully operated.

Hydraulics may indeed be fascinating, but the laws of physics and economics still apply to the project.  As the diameter of a circle doubles, the area quadruples and the volume of water needing to be moved and the energy required to move it will increase exponentially.  There's no "free lunch" in physics.

Not quite sure what your comment is supposed to imply, but there are certainly limits to how much area of land can be addressed by a well pattern.  Even with great porosity and permeability, I expect the well fields will be quite expansive just to address the noses.  Addressing the middles and tails will probably be possible to a point (pardon the pun) but I expect a lot of tail Uranium will be left in the ground until prices improve.  It's a much wiser course of action to target the low hanging fruit first anyway.

As I've repeated, it's just an area of interest.  I want to know why the language around grade has changed and whether it's changed for economically sound reasons.

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks for the response z-trader. I could have come to the assumption regarding the differences between Ross and Barber. It was just your comment came across that there may be some other reasoning as it was a rather certain sounding statement.

All good though and now explained.

With regard to this comment:
"...the area quadruples and the volume of water needing to be moved and the energy required to move it will increase exponentially"

It is irrellevant to the extraction process as the pumps will be designed for a certain head height (lift) and flow rate. The amount of water it draws from is just that a large area of water from which to draw upon. The higher the head height to the surface, the less energy required to pump it out.

Akin to conventional mining, whereas you may have a very large resource but you will use the same equipment to dig it up. It will just take longer to exhaust the supply. The increase in energy used is only related to the additional time taken to extract the ore, not because it is a big area. There is no exponential increase in energy used, in fact it is a linear metric increase.

The engineering studies and hydrology results to come will be of great interest to me. Far more so than the initial jorc. Although I will say a surprise to the downside on Jorc will have me and others thinking again on our investment. From the results to date I am not expecting that to occur.

They still have quite a few boxes to tick yet, that I agree on. However at least they are progressing positively and in the main according to the announced timelines.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



nunthewiser said:


> Personally think that anyone that would engage in any such conversation on a PUBLIC INTERNET FORUM would need there heads read.
> 
> But hey makes for intresting reading.
> 
> as you were.




Reichman has employed A Current Affair style journalism tactics on many many contributers to the PEN threads over the year or so I've seen him in action.  He often plays the "I'm just asking questions" card, but I think he's just learned that it's no fun being asked to justify yourself in public.  Especially when it really has nothing to do with what we're here to discuss, Peninsula Minerals.

I genuinely "reich" him and his puns , but as I said before I really wish he'd direct his investigative talents towards discovering what's fact and fiction about PEN.

z-trader


----------



## Deepen

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

z-trader, I like the fact that you are obviously the forum expert on PEN, and with 20% of your portfolio in it, and long, it gives me great confidence.
Thank you. 

I have liked the story for a few weeks now, so am glad I found this forum.

Reichman, I also think it would be good for z-trader to answer your question about other names, as you have been accomodating with him it seems.
Fair's fair.

z-trader, do you post on share scene? That's the other one I've heard of.
What is your name there?


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> It is irrellevant to the extraction process as the pumps will be designed for a certain head height (lift) and flow rate. The amount of water it draws from is just that a large area of water from which to draw upon. The higher the head height to the surface, the less energy required to pump it out.




The volume of water increasing exponentially is more important on the injection well side, for obvious reasons which I'm sure you're aware of.

Not sure we actually disagree on much, but maybe you could suggest the minimum and maximum distance you're expecting between the injection wells and the extraction wells.  Too abstract at the moment.

z-trader


----------



## reichman

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Since you took the time to reply to my post, I'm baffled why you didn't respond to the central question (how hard is it to simply write "no"?).  Very puzzling so I hope you clarify the issue as you've asked others to do so many times in the past.
> 
> I'll repeat the question Reichman.  *Can you also confirm that you haven't received any correspondence where the author has implied or otherwise construed that they are passing on information not yet released to market where the information would be likely to have a material impact on the share price.*
> 
> z-trader




Z, depth, stoch or whoever you are, forgive me, but I'm beginning to doubt your sincerity. Do you actually own shares in PEN or are we talking about another company? 
On the other forum I read and occasionally post on, all that the bulk of posters seem to write about is why does the shareprice stay the same, even with all the great news we read in the ple*****a of positive company announcements?  I would have thought these announcements would've had a material impact on the share price, but no, the shareprice remains pretty much stagnant while we all sit, wait and hope. Well I sit, wait and hope because, unlike you, I'm not a full time trader and I know little to nothing about the markets machinations.

Therefore I can confirm I haven't received any correspondence that likely had a material impact on the share price. I did however once read a comparison of sorts between Extract and Pen from someone who at the time was perceived by me to be a respected poster, but given he now appears to be backtracking on that comment, I can't even hold onto that with any confidence.

Z-trader - I may be wrong, and if I am, I will now apologise in advance, but given I am fairly confident that you are a multi-nicker who harasses people, I now respectfully inform you that I will no longer be conversing with you. 

I wish you well in your future endeavours and if you do actually own shares in PEN, let's hope we both wind up on the right side of the ledger.

Regards
Reichman


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



reichman said:


> Z, depth, stoch or whoever you are, forgive me, but I'm beginning to doubt your sincerity. Do you actually own shares in PEN or are we talking about another company?
> On the other forum I read and occasionally post on, all that the bulk of posters seem to write about is why does the shareprice stay the same, even with all the great news we read in the ple*****a of positive company announcements?  I would have thought these announcements would've had a material impact on the share price, but no, the shareprice remains pretty much stagnant while we all sit, wait and hope. Well I sit, wait and hope because, unlike you, I'm not a full time trader and I know little to nothing about the markets machinations.
> 
> Therefore I can confirm I haven't received any correspondence that likely had a material impact on the share price. I did however once read a comparison of sorts between Extract and Pen from someone who at the time was perceived by me to be a respected poster, but given he now appears to be backtracking on that comment, I can't even hold onto that with any confidence.
> 
> Z-trader - I may be wrong, and if I am, I will now apologise in advance, but given I am fairly confident that you are a multi-nicker who harasses people, I now respectfully inform you that I will no longer be conversing with you.
> 
> I wish you well in your future endeavours and if you do actually own shares in PEN, let's hope we both wind up on the right side of the ledger.
> 
> Regards
> Reichman





Respected ASF colleagues

First of all I do not hold PEN and I am not a day time trader either.
However this is not PEN related directly.
Having seen the friendly and healthy conversations may come a bit rough between some of you, probably it is best to sort such issues using PM box.

Just  a friendly suggestion  without trying to offend any one or pretending to be an expert on human psychology. 

Best wishes and please do not leave the forum because of such personality issues


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> The volume of water increasing exponentially is more important on the injection well side, for obvious reasons which I'm sure you're aware of.
> 
> Not sure we actually disagree on much, but maybe you could suggest the minimum and maximum distance you're expecting between the injection wells and the extraction wells.  Too abstract at the moment.
> 
> z-trader




Yes I am aware of the importance of the injection well aspect. However the metrics that will finally be used and distances etc, is as much a mystery to me as it is to all shareholders and watchers of PEN atm. All we do know is the permeability and Darcy Rating of which is very high for the location. Five times higher than nearby Uranerz.

The only ones that would know are the mining engineers doing the study and I doubt if they have that level of detail as yet. They may have a basis for design in progress but even that will change during the study phases.

That information we have to wait on and I really look forward to seeing it.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



reichman said:


> Therefore I can confirm I haven't received any correspondence that likely had a material impact on the share price.




You still haven't answered the question I asked and you're using weasel words to dodge it, as well as coming up with a spurious pretext for not having to engage in any more obvious dodging of a simple question.

I repeat that I didn't ask if the information had a material impact, I asked if you'd received correspondence where the author implied that they were passing on information that *could* have such an impact.

Your continual dodging of the question just makes me more and more suspicious.  Surely you can just categorically say that no you haven't received any correspondence like that where the author implied it was something the market didn't know about?  I've suspected that there's a lot of leakage out of PEN for a while now, your response to such a simple question has me really wondering now.



> I did however once read a comparison of sorts between Extract and Pen from someone who at the time was perceived by me to be a respected poster, but given he now appears to be backtracking on that comment




I already answered your question regarding that and I made it clear that there was no conflict between what I was saying then and now.  PEN themselves claim to be on the way to becoming a 400 million dollar company, that's about a quarter of EXTs current market cap (can't be bothered checking for exact accuracy).

As I asked you originally, where is the perceived conflict between the following statements:

July
1) PEN could potentially prove up 250 mlbs

Yest
2) Exchange rate could affect PEN's valuation adversely
3) There's more uncertainty surrounding Barber than Ross

I just don't see how the statements conflict, and you certainly haven't explained how other than to superficially label one paragraph as bullish and one bearish, a gross simplification.



> I'm fairly confident that you are a multi-nicker who harasses people.




I don't know if you're a multi-nicker but you've been harassing people with mike munro style journalism for at least a year and it seems very much like you can't handle your own medicine.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Yes I am aware of the importance of the injection well aspect. However the metrics that will finally be used and distances etc, is as much a mystery to me as it is to all shareholders and watchers of PEN atm. All we do know is the permeability and Darcy Rating of which is very high for the location. Five times higher than nearby Uranerz.
> 
> The only ones that would know are the mining engineers doing the study and I doubt if they have that level of detail as yet. They may have a basis for design in progress but even that will change during the study phases.
> 
> That information we have to wait on and I really look forward to seeing it.




I'm surprised you took issue with what I originally said when you don't even have a ballpark range for plausible distances between injection and extraction wells.  You ought to know at least that it won't be miles, but we do know that the tails do extend over miles.

Therefore, my original statement stands, and if the lowering of the ppm standard is just to superficially increase the reserve estimate then I want to be on top of that ASAP.  Given that some sources I've found talk of injection/extraction spacings of just 50-100m, it's quite important once you start chasing the low grade mineral deposits.  The marvels of Hydraulics won't save us from the realities of profit margins.

z-trader


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Therefore, my original statement stands, and if the lowering of the ppm standard is just to superficially increase the reserve estimate then I want to be on top of that ASAP.  Given that some sources I've found talk of injection/extraction spacings of just 50-100m, it's quite important once you start chasing the low grade mineral deposits.  The marvels of Hydraulics won't save us from the realities of profit margins.
> 
> z-trader




Z man, go through PEN announcements and look at the tables they produce, look at each announcement that talks about increased mineralisation.  They selectively pick out the larger mineralisations as the high light (leader) of their announcements.

So you know in the tables where it says PFN GT (ft%) (0.01% cut) = 100ppm

good luck and its good that you question this.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



jetblack said:


> Z man, go through PEN announcements and look at the tables they produce, look at each announcement that talks about increased mineralisation.  They selectively pick out the larger mineralisations as the high light (leader) of their announcements.




It's frustrating not having the full historical data made public, but I'm not sure the cherry picking of results is necessarily a sign of deception.  They've given highlights as well as expected ranges for the total size of the mineral resource, signed off by an independent expert.



> So you know in the tables where it says PFN GT (ft%) (0.01% cut) = 100ppm




My understanding is that Grade Thickness is the interval length multipled by average grade.  The idea is to distinguish between a 1 foot interval at 100ppm and a 13 foot interval at 100ppm.  Obviously the 13 foot intercept contains more Uranium and Grade Thickness captures this in one number.  It's especially useful for encapsulating the contained Uranium for holes with multiple interval lengths of varying ppms, since I believe grade thickness figures from each interval can be added together to create a single GT for the entire hole.

For the sake of being factual, the terminology has changed from:

'Of the 28 holes completed in August, 9 contain mineralised intervals that exceed the “rule of
thumb” for economic ISR mineralisation in this setting (a grade thickness product of 0.3ft %
U 3 O 8 ).'

to:

"These 2,043 holes contribute a total of 3,623 reportable intersections exceeding 100ppm eU3O8 (numerous holes have multiple intersections)."

The first, oft-repeated, statement refers to *economic* ISR mineralisation, whereas the second appears more concerned with what is *reportable*.  I don't see much reason to assume it's anything but JORC compliance related, but it's definitely worth confirming and it'll pay to read future announcements surrounding this issue carefully.

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> I'm surprised you took issue with what I originally said when you don't even have a ballpark range for plausible distances between injection and extraction wells.  You ought to know at least that it won't be miles, but we do know that the tails do extend over miles.
> 
> Therefore, my original statement stands, and if the lowering of the ppm standard is just to superficially increase the reserve estimate then I want to be on top of that ASAP.  Given that some sources I've found talk of injection/extraction spacings of just 50-100m, it's quite important once you start chasing the low grade mineral deposits.  The marvels of Hydraulics won't save us from the realities of profit margins.
> 
> z-trader




I could easily pick up (as anyone could) some assumptive figures based on other mines but it is superfluous to do so. You wrongly assume I took issue, I am merely expressing my view of which in part differs from yours. 

As I said I await the real data to be announced and will base my evaluation and decisions on that, not on assumptions made on a forum.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> I could easily pick up (as anyone could) some assumptive figures based on other mines but it is superfluous to do so. You wrongly assume I took issue, I am merely expressing my view of which in part differs from yours.
> 
> As I said I await the real data to be announced and will base my evaluation and decisions on that, not on assumptions made on a forum.




Fair enough, but PEN is a speccie, and some would call the act of making plausible assumptions about the future.... speculating!

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Fair enough, but PEN is a speccie, and some would call the act of making plausible assumptions about the future.... speculating!
> 
> z-trader




Someone is in a hurry to buy PENOA this morning.  Three times the volume on the heads.  Another announcement is in the post I'd say.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Someone is in a hurry to buy PENOA this morning.  Three times the volume on the heads.  Another announcement is in the post I'd say.
> 
> z-trader




Perhaps PEN are about to announce that they've done lab testing of some cores at Barber so shareholders are no longer left wondering whether the permeability and porosity are similar to those returned from Ross?  Unlikely, but would be nice.

Not sure what affect it would have on the share price though.  Hartley's predictions so far on announcements that would catalyse share price appreciation have been mostly wrong.

I believe in January Hartley's claimed that the share price would rise to 8-10 cents on the back of announcements of 1) high grade mineralisation, 2) initial JORC, 3) completion of plant design and 4) commencement of drilling at Karoo.

So far we've had 1 and 3 announced and not much interest from the market.  Adding to the fact that Hartley's had a similar 6 month target based on similar logic last year, that was completely missed, I don't put a lot of value in the predictions of Hartley's.  There's a common human failing that causes us to only remember predictions that turned out correct, but if you look at Hartley's track record with PEN over the last year they seem to have almost no better predictive powers than a coin.  Incidentally though, I just flipped a coin and I'm sure everyone will be relieved to know that the coin predicts a positive future for PEN.

Seriously though, I want to see the volumes improve on PEN before I start adding to my position significantly in anticipation of any re-rating.  If initial JORC does come out early (in Mar-Apr for instance), then I expect there'll be an obvious build up in volume beforehand.  Surely there'll be more than $1-200 000 bucks of daily buying interest if something good is about to be announced.  Without the help of an announcement, PEN really needs to break above 5 cents next week to break out of a bearish triangle formation.  If it doesn't, then I expect another test of 4.5 cents and possibly 4.1 cents on failure to find support.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Deepen

In response to your private message.  IMO, the volumes are too low to argue that PEN is being "held back".  The phrase implies that there is a lot of demand for PEN stock but that someone with deep pockets keeps selling to stop the share price rising.  If that was the case then we should be seeing high volume and a lot of activity in the market depth.  Not happening if you ask me.  What I see is a trickle of sell orders gradually overpowering a trickle of buy orders.  Market just isn't interested in PEN right now would be my guess.

I agree it's been frustrating having dead money in PEN for so long, but am hopeful that initial JORC will make the wait worthwhile.  I've generally been tackling a lot of negatives lately, but that's because the positives are covered extensively, if not overstated, elsewhere (ie hotcopper.com).

z-trader


----------



## Megacents

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It would be good to see the details of how many injection holes (spacing) will be needed for each front. Also how much water needs to be injected and the cost.

I maybe wrong but as head height increases the amount of energy needed would increase? Just commenting on Hangseng.

dyor


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Megacents said:


> It would be good to see the details of how many injection holes (spacing) will be needed for each front. Also how much water needs to be injected and the cost.
> 
> I maybe wrong but as head height increases the amount of energy needed would increase? Just commenting on Hangseng.
> 
> dyor




At around 15K a pop, the number of wells required per pound of Uranium is probably the most important factor for profitability.

I've noticed a few punters are scratching their heads, wondering why the share price is where it is, but if you remove the hype and take what is actually reported about Lance, if you use the spot price, and the actual current exchange rate, and assume 10yrs production at 1.5m pounds per year, then the NPV is only $38 million, so the share price is actually already 50% above such a pessimistic valuation.

If you keep all the figures the same, but double the mine life to 20 years at 1.5 m pounds per year (not such a big leap to imagine a 30 m pound resource) then the NPV is pretty much dead on the current market cap.

It's funny how anchoring works.  People are used to companies being valued on hype so when a company is actually valued on reported facts only, minus exuberance, they think something is wrong!

For the sake of being balanced, I calculate an optimistic hyped up valuation of Lance at around $307 m AUD.  However, to get there I have to assume 20 years of production at 2 m pounds per year and also that PEN will secure the long term price of $60 USD.  Strictly evaluating what is factual, these two feats are far from a certainty, so it seems prudent to price in some risk to me, and I think that's what the market is doing.

I'm hopeful that the Uranium price will start rising again because I think Nuclear power is the best way forward for the world, but it's important not to be blinded by idealistic notions.  More nuclear plants does not automatically equal a higher price for Uranium in the near future.  Not until all the weaponised stockpiles of Uranium are used up.  With Obama's recent pledge to massively reduce US warheads, I feel there's a high chance that it will be used to finance his $53 billion nuclear power commitment, and with Russia/US supplying the market, there's no shortage for 10 years at least.  PEN will hopefully be able to make a profit in that future, but for me there's a question mark over whether PEN will have pricing power, or the buyers will.  I suspect it'll be a buyers market so for now I think it's safer to assume that PEN will only obtain the spot price.

z-trader


----------



## Megacents

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> At around 15K a pop, the number of wells required per pound of Uranium is probably the most important factor for profitability.
> z-trader




That not too much money. I suppose it then depends on the spacing and as you said the wells versus pounds recovered versus costs.

I wonder would the company release that sort of info or would it be IP/design information?

Thanks dyor


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Megacents said:


> I wonder would the company release that sort of info or would it be IP/design information?




Somewhat a matter of discretion for PEN, but we should definitely get finer grained detail in the upcoming feasibility studies.  At the moment we can only say that the costs will be little threat to the profitability of many nose areas, but may come into play when determining how much of the tail we can actually get out of the ground at a profit.

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Good to see PEN getting the positive attention so long deserved these last couple of days.

The next lot of announcements, especially initial jorc (and hopefully PFS results), would be the main driver of that I feel pretty certain.

Lets hope it sustains and brings in some new longer term investors.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Good to see PEN getting the positive attention so long deserved these last couple of days.
> 
> The next lot of announcements, especially initial jorc (and hopefully PFS results), would be the main driver of that I feel pretty certain.
> 
> Lets hope it sustains and brings in some new longer term investors.




All stocks rally when their TA signals hit bottom.  PEN failed to close on its high today so I doubt there's much steam left in this run.  Nothing has changed for PEN since last week.

z-trader


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> All stocks rally when their TA signals hit bottom.  PEN failed to close on its high today so I doubt there's much steam left in this run.  Nothing has changed for PEN since last week.
> 
> z-trader




Hi Z Trader

Hope you are well.
I have been following PEN movement.
I believe it is an excellent growth share . when market was down PEN rose up. The volume of sales today is outstanding.
Consistent rise of the price - not too high but steady to win the race.
I will not be cynical on this scrip and it is just unfortunate that I sold out prematurely.

Herewith I present extract from ASX as saw at 9.45 AM Tuesday WST
Delayed share price
Prices are delayed by at least 20 minutes. Retrieving any price indicates your acceptance of the Conditions.

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol 
PEN 0.048  2.13%  0.048  0.049  0.047  0.052  0.047  *22,835,728  *

22 Mar 2010 0.047 *4.44% * 0.049 0.046 13,257,961 
19 Mar 2010 0.045 *7.14%*  0.045 0.042 2,981,964 
18 Mar 2010 0.042 0%  0.042 0.042 1,855,727 
17 Mar 2010 0.042 0%  0.043 0.042 2,435,133 





hangseng said:


> Good to see PEN getting the positive attention so long deserved these last couple of days.
> 
> The next lot of announcements, especially initial jorc (and hopefully PFS results), would be the main driver of that I feel pretty certain.
> 
> Lets hope it sustains and brings in some new longer term investors.




Hangseng 

Well done and thanks for your trust on PEN for good technical reasons.
Today PEN already changed hands with 22 million shares by mid day with an excellent announcement. It will be very naive to suggest that PEN does not have the strength. Unfortunately I was not a believer and sold out

But I believe the re-entry point is only with cash to be put in Commsec.  DNH.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Miner

The volume is exceptional for PEN which usually can barely trade 2 million shares a day, but the announcement didn't contain much of substance IMO.  It's great that timelines are being moved forward, but for me it's the content of the announcements that matters, much less so the timing.  Some may argue that a Karoo target of 30m lbs was material, but it's just a target, and with no plans to mine an undefined resource for at least 5 years, I'd suggest a pretty big risk premium would erode most of the value attributable to PEN's share price, today.

IMO the lack of material content may have led to the sell off today.  I believe traders would be asking where's the beef?  Not much in today's announcement could be used to refine or update the company valuation.  I believe you'll get another chance to buy lower, the rise has been pretty steep in a very short period, but leading up to mid/end April we may start to see anticipation building ahead of announcements.  JMO.

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks Miner, I have been a believer in PEN for a very long time but based on fundamentals of what I always believed and still do will potentially be an excellent uranium producing company with two excellent projects.

I enjoy Technical analysis but often get it wrong. However it doesn't prevent me from looking at it closely, I do often get it right for technical entry points, which is mainly what I use T/A for. It is well known here by most who know me I first find a company I want to be in for reasons I find worthwhile in sectors I understand. I then use T/A to define an entry point and any thereafter as funds become available. 

Last week I was lucky enough to have some spare funds and again bought PEN as it bounced of 4.2 again and again giving a strong support signal.

Today’s announcement again displays the progressive nature of PEN' management and clearly they are pushing hard to get PEN to production at Lance. The company making project IMO that will provide all necessary to progress Karoo and provide further value to investors like myself.

No surprise to me that Jorc is coming earlier, I just didn't expect it this early. What I really want to see though is the PFS data so hopefully they release some pertinent information.

I can understand why you and others pulled out. It has been a long haul, with many ups and downs testing many. However that is what investing and the market is is about so we are led to believe...
"The transfer from the impatient to the patient" something like that anyway.

I am one very patient old sod and have needed to be with PEN  But I feel the time is nearing when I can finally capitalise on this patience to some degree. 

Just in time for semi-retirement hopefully


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> I am one very patient old sod and have needed to be with PEN  But I feel the time is nearing when I can finally capitalise on this patience to some degree.




Looks like PEN is capitalising on your patience too.  Makes the obvious leaking of info last week all the more insulting.  This kind of abuse of shareholders is what is damaging the register.  There's no defensible reason why the announcements couldn't have come together, so it reflects on management negatively.  Every time Gus does something like this, it disenfranchises a number of would be holders.  

Just as every time the choir starts singing about it being the last time to get on board, and then being wrong, also destroys trust and disenfranchises even more would be holders.  The announcements yesterday and today are rightly being seen as a 1-2 punch to shareholders.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Last time PEN had a cap raising, the share price fell below the issue price, so at least those who want to get in may still get a chance.  It's possible that it'll be some amazing deal where the other party showers money over PEN for peanuts in return like some are speculating elsewhere, but more realistically it will be a deal which benefits both parties equally, in the long term.  Iow, I think it's safest to assume some dilution, some short term pain, but in the long term, PEN + another bucket of money will be a stronger company.

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*

Finally another research report on PEN, with a comparison table of other advanced uranium companies in Wyoming, displaying PEN in the enviable position of being well ahead of its peers there.

For the full report sign up to http://www.rcresearch.com.au/

In part...

*Resource Capital Research*
22nd March 2010

*Peninsula Minerals Limited*
_PEN is advancing the prospective Lance ISR project in Wyoming. Key resource and economic data are expected 2Q10. BFS expected 1H11; production potential 2012. A significant re-rating of PEN's share price is anticipated as project parameters are confirmed 2010.

Focused on uranium - 2010 total exploration and
evaluation budget A$25m; A$20m earmarked for Lance.

Lance ISR project (WY): potential production 2012;
Production target 1.5mlbspa U3O8; PEN est. total opex
US$26/lb; initial capex US$60m. NPV breakeven
~US$30/lb U3O8.

Lance project regional exploration target 70 to 90mlbs U3O8 grading 0.05 - 0.07%. Ross and Barber target 12 to 18mlbs U3O8. 4 rigs on site.

Initial JORC resource and PFS expected 2Q10.

Karoo Project: shallow, high grade mineralisation identified from surface to 40m - exploration target of 90 to 150mlbs U3O8 grading 0.12 to 0.14%.

Karoo Project: Resource definition drilling 1H10 - 10
priority drill targets; scoping study expected 2H10. Mid term target 30mlbs U3O8 2012.


Investment Comment:
PENs valuation is driven by the Lance ISR uranium project with production visibility, potentially 2012. While key resource and project data are yet to be confirmed (expected 2Q10) robust project economics are indicated with a breakeven project NPV of ~US$30/lb U3O8. At the current long term price (US$60/lb U3O8) and assuming an initial resource (mid target range) of 15mlbs grading 0.065, total opex US$26/lb, initial capex US$60m, NPV is over US$120m (10% r/i), with upside to anticipated further regional exploration success. PENs share price has potential to be re-rated to $0.06-0.08/share near term as project milestones are met 2Q10. WY is a uranium friendly state, combined with PENs use of experienced external permitting consultants, and new streamlined permitting timeframes in the US, positions the company well to fast track regulatory approvals._


----------



## Miner

*Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Finally another research report on PEN, with a comparison table of other advanced uranium companies in Wyoming, displaying PEN in the enviable position of being well ahead of its peers there.
> 
> For the full report sign up to http://www.rcresearch.com.au/
> 
> In part...
> 
> *Resource Capital Research*
> 22nd March 2010
> 
> *Peninsula Minerals Limited*
> _PEN is advancing the prospective Lance ISR project in Wyoming. Key resource and economic data are expected 2Q10. BFS expected 1H11; production potential 2012. A significant re-rating of PEN's share price is anticipated as project parameters are confirmed 2010.
> 
> Focused on uranium - 2010 total exploration and
> evaluation budget A$25m; A$20m earmarked for Lance.
> 
> Lance ISR project (WY): potential production 2012;
> Production target 1.5mlbspa U3O8; PEN est. total opex
> US$26/lb; initial capex US$60m. NPV breakeven
> ~US$30/lb U3O8.
> 
> Lance project regional exploration target 70 to 90mlbs U3O8 grading 0.05 - 0.07%. Ross and Barber target 12 to 18mlbs U3O8. 4 rigs on site.
> 
> Initial JORC resource and PFS expected 2Q10.
> 
> Karoo Project: shallow, high grade mineralisation identified from surface to 40m - exploration target of 90 to 150mlbs U3O8 grading 0.12 to 0.14%.
> 
> Karoo Project: Resource definition drilling 1H10 - 10
> priority drill targets; scoping study expected 2H10. Mid term target 30mlbs U3O8 2012.
> 
> 
> Investment Comment:
> PENs valuation is driven by the Lance ISR uranium project with production visibility, potentially 2012. While key resource and project data are yet to be confirmed (expected 2Q10) robust project economics are indicated with a breakeven project NPV of ~US$30/lb U3O8. At the current long term price (US$60/lb U3O8) and assuming an initial resource (mid target range) of 15mlbs grading 0.065, total opex US$26/lb, initial capex US$60m, NPV is over US$120m (10% r/i), with upside to anticipated further regional exploration success. PENs share price has potential to be re-rated to $0.06-0.08/share near term as project milestones are met 2Q10. WY is a uranium friendly state, combined with PENs use of experienced external permitting consultants, and new streamlined permitting timeframes in the US, positions the company well to fast track regulatory approvals._





Hangseng

It is your day with long persistence and hard work on PEN paying off.
Attached the announcement of capital raising .

I think with 4 cents attaching one free option is real value proposition for the holders. I do not hold but that is non issue.

Congratulations to the believers who held tight on PEN

I feel pity for  those who have been unsuccessfully campaigning (ramping ) against PEN recently. 

My condolence to myself and likewise others who lost faith on PEN and sold out instead of holdng


----------



## z-trader

*Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*

Miner

There's every chance you'll get to buy shares around 4 cents over the next couple of weeks so I see no reason for your praise or your lament.  Just pick yourself up and get ready to jump back on the horse.

Just ignore all the talk of it being the last chance to get on.  I must have heard that one a dozen times over the last year and every time it's been dead wrong.  I recommend you take a real close look at who's saying what and how often they get it correct, because it's clear from your posting lately, that you need to pay more attention in that area.

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Suffice to say I am very happy with my PEN holdings and even more so that I accumulated a few more over the last few months.

I will be taking up the rights issue in full, as I did the last and I have already sent a request to be included in any shortfall that may eventuate.

The RCR reports sent to me today have increased my confidence in my decision to remain an investor in PEN and to continue to accumulate at these low levels while I can.

I don't get swayed one way or the other by anyone regarding PEN. Over the last 3 years I have researched the company, the management, the consultants they use, the uranium mining and nuclear power industry, the ISR process, Wyoming and the environemntal and regulatory aspects involved.

Lesson number one for any forum reader/contributor...Have faith in what you learn and of your own decisions. *Don't be swayed by anyone whether it be positive or negative postings*. Only you have the ability to make a decision based on your own appetite for risk and your research.

I am confident my faith in both my own research and PEN will eventually pay off. If I am wrong I will have nobody but myself to blame (and my son will blame me as well). If not my family and I will enjoy every last moment of the rewards my decision to do what I have done offers.

That is all I am concerned with.

Hopefully you can open this link to RCR.

*The Resurgence of the United States Domestic Uranium Industry: Who Said it Couldn't Happen?*


----------



## z-trader

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Suffice to say I am very happy with my PEN holdings and even more so that I accumulated a few more over the last few months.




The problem is that there's nothing that could happen that would make you unhappy.  The price goes down, you tell us you're happy, the company dilutes your holdings, you tell us you're happy.  Management awards themselves options for totally unchallenging targets, you're happy.  When exactly are you unhappy?  If never, then what is the point of telling us you're happy all the time, it loses all meaning!



> The RCR reports sent to me today have increased my confidence in my decision to remain an investor in PEN and to continue to accumulate at these low levels while I can.




The question is *why* has it increased your confidence, and is that reason rational or not?  Anyone can have increasing confidence in the face of all evidence to the contrary!  That doesn't take talent or intelligence.  It's just blind faith or bias.

A rational holder of Uranium producer shares should be concerned about the RCR report!  We don't want a resurgence!  A resurgence means more supply and lower prices!  The ideal for PEN is to be the last Uranium producer on the planet, not to be one of an increasing number.  It's just crazy some of things that get written.



> Lesson number one for any forum reader/contributor...Have faith in what you learn and of your own decisions.




No, self-confidence is what's required.  Faith has no place.  Faith is a religious term which implies a lack of reason and an inability to change course (after new information).  Faith blinds.  Reason illuminates.



> I am confident my faith in both my own research and PEN will eventually pay off.




If you believe so strongly that others should make their own judgements then why do you spend so much time telling us about your faith and confidence?  Surely doing so has zero benefit to you, but also runs the risk of persuading others to invest solely on your confidence levels.  Why do you need to tell us about your emotional appraisal of PEN if you think people should make all decisions based on fact and their own judgement?

z-trader


----------



## Miner

*Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> Miner
> 
> There's every chance you'll get to buy shares around 4 cents over the next couple of weeks so I see no reason for your praise or your lament.  Just pick yourself up and get ready to jump back on the horse.
> 
> Just ignore all the talk of it being the last chance to get on.  I must have heard that one a dozen times over the last year and every time it's been dead wrong.  I recommend you take a real close look at who's saying what and how often they get it correct, because it's clear from your posting lately, that you need to pay more attention in that area.
> 
> z-trader



Thanks Z Trader for the encouragement

Even if the share dips down 4 cents how the free option to be valued.

Selfishly  I wish your thoughts to  be right and I want to step in to buy PEN when it dips below 4 cents . 

But I will wait and see before getting too excited as I said 90% time my speculation failed


----------



## z-trader

*Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*



Miner said:


> Thanks Z Trader for the encouragement
> 
> Even if the share dips down 4 cents how the free option to be valued.
> 
> Selfishly  I wish your thoughts to  be right and I want to step in to buy PEN when it dips below 4 cents .
> 
> But I will wait and see before getting too excited as I said 90% time my speculation failed




Unbang head!  Already half way there.  The price action today clearly demonstrates the problem of confidence in the absense of reason.

IMO, a rational an unbiased appraisal of recent research reports covering PEN and Uranium market, as well as the cap raising should have led to the conclusion that PEN may fall in the short term, and it has.  So then the question you have to ask is what was the intention of those who failed to address the possibility and were instead shouting from the rooftops that everything is going great?  Did they have your interests at heart or did they have their own interests at heart?

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*



Miner said:


> Thanks Z Trader for the encouragement
> 
> Even if the share dips down 4 cents how the free option to be valued.
> 
> Selfishly  I wish your thoughts to  be right and I want to step in to buy PEN when it dips below 4 cents .
> 
> But I will wait and see before getting too excited as I said 90% time my speculation failed




With the support that came in today at 4.5c I think you will be extremely lucky if you achieved 4c Miner. Good luck if it occurs, however the trading today did nothing to shatter my confidence in PEN or the recent decisions they have made.

Many doomsayers were predicting a major sell off today and it quite simply didn't occur and never looked like occurring.

A quick look at the chart was interesting. All that has occurred is the closing of the continuation gap at 4.5. Strong support is indicated here now IMO.

Today displayed strong support in favour of the CR IMO. Despite the sellers that thinned dramatically throughout the day, buyers just kept coming in at 4.5c.

I await my rights issue offer from PEN.


----------



## z-trader

*Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> With the support that came in today at 4.5c I think you will be extremely lucky if you achieved 4c Miner. Good luck if it occurs, however the trading today did nothing to shatter my confidence in PEN or the recent decisions they have made.
> 
> Many doomsayers were predicting a major sell off today and it quite simply didn't occur and never looked like occurring.
> 
> A quick look at the chart was interesting. All that has occurred is the closing of the continuation gap at 4.5. Strong support is indicated here now IMO.
> 
> Today displayed strong support in favour of the CR IMO. Despite the sellers that thinned dramatically throughout the day, buyers just kept coming in at 4.5c.
> 
> I await my rights issue offer from PEN.




PEN recently traded at 4.3 cents.  Low volume, but it shows that "buyers just kept coming in at 4.5c" observations and "quick looks" at charts don't have a lot of predictive power.  Not past the moment they're written anyway.

z-trader


----------



## z-trader

*Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals*



z-trader said:


> PEN recently traded at 4.3 cents.  Low volume, but it shows that "buyers just kept coming in at 4.5c" observations and "quick looks" at charts don't have a lot of predictive power.  Not past the moment they're written anyway.
> 
> z-trader




Why don't commentators on this stock write on days when the share price falls?  Why don't commentators point out news that negatively impacts the Uranium market?  ie Obama's pledge to drastically reduce US nuclear warheads.  

z-trader


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Well PEN came close for you this week Miner but I see it it has come back to 4.5 again today. Possibly a watershed period for PEN coming up and it remains to be seen if your target will get hit.

All I want is my additional shares under the rights issue and the free options to add to my holdings. The daily happenings from now until production are of little consequence to me, however it will be an exciting time I am sure and has been a long time coming.

Love to know who the overseas investment company is that took up the rights issue and what their longer term plans are.


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Well PEN came close for you this week Miner but I see it it has come back to 4.5 again today. Possibly a watershed period for PEN coming up and it remains to be seen if your target will get hit.
> 
> All I want is my additional shares under the rights issue and the free options to add to my holdings. The daily happenings from now until production are of little consequence to me, however it will be an exciting time I am sure and has been a long time coming.
> 
> Love to know who the overseas investment company is that took up the rights issue and what their longer term plans are.




Very quickly thanks Hangseng for your thoughts remembering me. 

I was a bit lucky to get a small parcel bought when I put a buy and almost forgot about it. Now I am a PEN holder but without the same rights or Option you or others may have

No regret or no jealousy from me. It is part of game

I am off to Kalbaari tomorrow morning for 4 days so it is almost 99% that I will be absent in ASF until Monday night.

*Wishing you and all the ASF readers a Happy Easter*

Regards


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

How did Kalbarri go Miner, are you a keen fisher or just enjoy the location? I am both and no better playground than Kalbarri, at the right times.

Well moving closer to the long awaited Jorc announcement and along with it now the final outcome of the cap raising. So many announcements to come out between now and when production commences, it keeps things interesting.

Good day in the paddock for PEN today. Still not very high volumes but also not the sell off some expected to occur, it fact the opposite today.

Hope you enjoyed your break, we don't get 4 days break for easter here. Being a majority Muslim country, just a token 'Good Friday' for the small number of Christians here. At least it was a break away from the desk for a while.

Cheers
HS


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> How did Kalbarri go Miner, are you a keen fisher or just enjoy the location? I am both and no better playground than Kalbarri, at the right times.
> 
> Well moving closer to the long awaited Jorc announcement and along with it now the final outcome of the cap raising. So many announcements to come out between now and when production commences, it keeps things interesting.
> 
> Good day in the paddock for PEN today. Still not very high volumes but also not the sell off some expected to occur, it fact the opposite today.
> 
> Hope you enjoyed your break, we don't get 4 days break for easter here. Being a majority Muslim country, just a token 'Good Friday' for the small number of Christians here. At least it was a break away from the desk for a while.
> 
> Cheers
> HS




Hi HangSeng

We  just returned to Earth (Perth) from Heaven (Kalbaari) .

We all enjoyed Kalbaari - the place, the people, the hotel (Kalbaari.edgeresort.com.au) facilities and staff - a lot of fishing (less drink this time surprisingly) and real relaxing. The price of food is almost same of Perth Supermarket. I could not believe. Our 10 yrs daughter insisted that why this holiday was so short and that tells how we have enjoyed it. Sorry other folks for:topic 

 I will post some photos in my facebook this week before flying to Brisy for couple of days (will miss ASF and ASX as well). 

I will keenly follow the upside (hopefully) on JORC when it arrives.

I bought and sold PEN earlier but this time I am trying to have patience for a good outcome

Thanks for remembering me.


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Cheque or the offer document is in the mail.

Thought to post in the forum for some one's weekend reading.
Good luck to PEN holders (including me - thaks to Hangseng's persistence for me to return to this scrip).


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Miner said:


> Cheque or the offer document is in the mail.
> 
> Thought to post in the forum for some one's weekend reading.
> Good luck to PEN holders (including me - thaks to Hangseng's persistence for me to return to this scrip).




Good morning Miner, been away on a short R&R and just back to see the Jorc announcement now out. Still a way to go but PEN is pushing ahead better than expected.

I have already applied for mine via Bpay as has my son. I have also requested to be considered should any shortfall eventuate. I say "should" as this won't be known until the offer closes on the 23rd April. Also as these get get placed at the discretion of the board it is possible that any shortfall may be placed with the new European investment fund that took up the placement. 

Time will tell and I have the funds waiting, for now I am very pleased the way PEN is advancing Lance. I will be even more pleased when they announce permit approval and mine construction. 

So much to look forward to and PEN is not far away from the planned production timeline.

Have a great day
HS


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Good morning Miner, been away on a short R&R and just back to see the Jorc announcement now out. Still a way to go but PEN is pushing ahead better than expected.
> 
> I have already applied for mine via Bpay as has my son. I have also requested to be considered should any shortfall eventuate. I say "should" as this won't be known until the offer closes on the 23rd April. Also as these get get placed at the discretion of the board it is possible that any shortfall may be placed with the new European investment fund that took up the placement.
> 
> Time will tell and I have the funds waiting, for now I am very pleased the way PEN is advancing Lance. I will be even more pleased when they announce permit approval and mine construction.
> 
> So much to look forward to and PEN is not far away from the planned production timeline.
> 
> Have a great day
> HS




Hey HS

Welcome back.

It appears there are not many people interested to talk about PEN now.

There should be non believers and I welcome their views as well to get best out of the thread.

I did not visit ASF almost for a week as I was busy in saving some good money for my client by attending a one week workshop with them. 

I am holding PEN and watching to see more market reaction once the rights are closed.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yes Miner it will once again be interesting to see what occurs post CR. Not really fussed though, I am focussed on late 2011 - early 2012.

As usual with PEN short term interest will return along with volume and increase in SP. The real rewards will come though after the same people have left the room IMO.

If PEN achieves all that is planned in the next 18-24months, what are the chances of the sp remaining at 4.3c? I would suggest buckleys to none, wouldn't you think?.

It will be welcomed to see the sp finally rise though. 

For now I am very interested to see what happens with the CR and to any shortfall should the retail offer not be taken up in full. I wonder also how many are sitting in the wings in the hope the sp will drop below the CR price of 4c? I for one think it won't but if it did it would be another great opportunity IMO.

Hope your break went well Miner. I just had one but would love another


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Well the CR is done and dusted and regardless of a shortfall that has now been taken up in full. I happily shared in the shortfall as well for additional shares to my CR allocation.

On another subject...

I have posted previously of the value of Moly and it's specialist uses in the oil & gas field. This is one I have never spoken about but look who is into it in a big way already.

The demand for moly and uranium will be huge on the back of the world change to nuclear power. PEN has both with very high grades indicated at Karoo.

If you are into either Moly or uranium I highly recommend you sign up for this website. It is free and regularly they put out information from around the world. I also recommend you sign up for *World Nuclear News* http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ again free and anyone seriously following uranium and nuclear energy should sign up for WNN at least.


*China Stockpiling Moly for Nuclear Plant Construction? *
2010-04-27 
Chinas stockpiling of molybdenum, now 30 percent of the worlds total inventory, may be attributable to their nuclear energy build up. Massive amounts of moly are needed for the highly specialized tubing needed for the reactors. These factors, as well as the rapid urbanization of China and India, and the modernization of the two powers, will be the driving influences for moly in the future. 
Read more... 

"The Chinese control 97 percent of the world manganese supplies, and are trying to secure dominance over almost all other metals. The answer to the question of why China is so aggressively pursuing such market dominance is vital to understanding market dynamics, and what are the best companies in which to invest."

But one factor that is rarely brought up is the increasing role of nuclear reactors in the global energy crisis. The reactors need extremely high quality steel tubing to deal with the unique aspects of this form of energy production. As a result of the growing trend towards nuclear power, the importance of moly has never been greater.

Nuclear power utilities, for example, rely on super-resistant moly alloys to replace the worlds aging reactor condenser tubes. Each new reactor will need at least 400,000 pounds of the stuff. Around 100 new reactors are scheduled for construction in China over the next few years. America, meanwhile, is hoping to build twice that many, reported Gleesen


*Full article: *
http://molyinvestingnews.com/2113-china-stockpiling-moly-for-nuclear-plant-construction.html


"Be greedy when others are fearful... and fearful when others are greedy" Warren Buffet


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

And down we went.......people really love CR's don't they  and I only have one piece of advice for me that I continue to follow:

*""Be greedy when others are fearful... and fearful when others are greedy" Warren Buffet"*

Suffice to say, for me this is an opportunity of a lifetime. Only because I have followed this company for so long and can foresee a positive outcome now in the not to distant future. 2012 to be exact.

I won't say anymore just now on what I think of PEN or the latest additional positive announcement on drill results (again...very consistent this aspect). However I will have a dabble at my other pastime interest being charts.

I am an amateur in the extreme with charting but it is fascinating how on the odd occasion it actually occurs technically as it is supposed to.

"TECHNICAL TOOLBOX: Getting An Edge With the Wedge "
http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/6018

Lets see what "Edwards and Magee" say about the "Downward Sloping Wedge"

PEN has a long history of this pattern and I am close to making a call that it is about to occur again. At least "Edwards and Magee" seem to agree with me a little.

Examples: 
Falling Wedge
"A falling wedge formation develops as price continues to converge to a point after falling rapidly. When price breaks out of a falling wedge, it drifts sideways or in a dull rounding bottom before the rally begins. Falling wedges are most common in bull markets, as they provide the fuel for the continuation of the primary trend."

http://www.optionetics.com/images/articles/fruffy0322023.jpg

Downward sloping wedge
"The analysis is similar to the rising wedge, but there is an important difference. When the stock breaks out of a rising wedge, the result is often a sharp move lower and a retracement of the entire preceding move higher (during the formation of the wedge). The falling wedge, on the other hand, is generally followed by listless and uneventful trading.

Point of conjecture that PEN remains in a primary uptrend but I believe it is and has been since Jan 2009, despite the volitility. I definately see many downward sloping wedge patterns and in one right now. Watch for a turn in the MACD.

PEN 5year/Weekly
http://i115.photobucket.com/albums/n290/rockingham178/PEN_Weekly_5year.jpg


we have the very lack lustre low volume...now watch for any hint of rising volume as PEN is almost at the turn point of the "falling wedge". If the volume comes in and the sp rises then the pattern is confirmed once again.


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> And down we went.......people really love CR's don't they  and I only have one piece of advice for me that I continue to follow:
> 
> *""Be greedy when others are fearful... and fearful when others are greedy" Warren Buffet"*
> 
> Suffice to say, for me this is an opportunity of a lifetime. Only because I have followed this company for so long and can foresee a positive outcome now in the not to distant future. 2012 to be exact.
> 
> I won't say anymore just now on what I think of PEN or the latest additional positive announcement on drill results (again...very consistent this aspect). However I will have a dabble at my other pastime interest being charts.
> 
> I am an amateur in the extreme with charting but it is fascinating how on the odd occasion it actually occurs technically as it is supposed to.
> 
> "TECHNICAL TOOLBOX: Getting An Edge With the Wedge "
> http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/6018
> 
> Lets see what "Edwards and Magee" say about the "Downward Sloping Wedge"
> 
> PEN has a long history of this pattern and I am close to making a call that it is about to occur again. At least "Edwards and Magee" seem to agree with me a little.
> 
> Examples:
> Falling Wedge
> "A falling wedge formation develops as price continues to converge to a point after falling rapidly. When price breaks out of a falling wedge, it drifts sideways or in a dull rounding bottom before the rally begins. Falling wedges are most common in bull markets, as they provide the fuel for the continuation of the primary trend."
> 
> http://www.optionetics.com/images/articles/fruffy0322023.jpg
> 
> Downward sloping wedge
> "The analysis is similar to the rising wedge, but there is an important difference. When the stock breaks out of a rising wedge, the result is often a sharp move lower and a retracement of the entire preceding move higher (during the formation of the wedge). The falling wedge, on the other hand, is generally followed by listless and uneventful trading.
> 
> Point of conjecture that PEN remains in a primary uptrend but I believe it is and has been since Jan 2009, despite the volitility. I definately see many downward sloping wedge patterns and in one right now. Watch for a turn in the MACD.
> 
> PEN 5year/Weekly
> http://i115.photobucket.com/albums/n290/rockingham178/PEN_Weekly_5year.jpg
> 
> 
> we have the very lack lustre low volume...now watch for any hint of rising volume as PEN is almost at the turn point of the "falling wedge". If the volume comes in and the sp rises then the pattern is confirmed once again.




Hi Hangseng 

Welcome you back after a fortnight. Looks like you went to take a lesson on philosophy or having a good sideline to see how things are merging 

Any way now  more on uranium matter I was  lucky to get additional quota from PEN on my request when there was a shortfall. Your posting in PEN did help me. I   being an impatient personality and with less astute focused sense like yours and few others, am still unsure if it was a smart move  to acquire at 4 cents when the price fell down less than 4 cents. But with an option to buy at 3  so I am not too perturbed. 

I have been following the PEN drill results closely.  I am unsure if they are  comparable with the drill result you see for Yeelirrie mines, Toro (WA one) or Mega Uranium. Excepting the hole result from RMR 3099 giving 1.07  pound per ppm other drill results  are of low value. Of course more drills to go before one can draw any good predictive  value.

I am illeterate on reading the wedges and the only wedge I understand potato wedge . But seriously could you please post some elaborate information on the concept of falling wedge ? As a layman in this wedge subject I thought every falling share will have a falling edge   ? But I am not criticising but trying to gather more understanding to fill up my knowledge voids. 

Look forward to hear back from you.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks Miner.

First my disclaimer again....I am very much an amateur at charting. It is simply an aspect I am interested in. First and foremost I rely on fundamental analysis for intial stock selection. A little difficult with spec stocks such as PEN initially as they don't have an income as yet. Once I have selected a stock I am interested in *investing* in, I then have a look at the chart for an entry point. I don't chase running stocks.

Yes with hindsight you could suggest it may have been better not to particiapate, but it depends on ones viewpoint. 

I am an investor in PEN, *"I want and need them to succeed"*. By taking part I add to the coffers of the company and aid in reducing risk. By not taking part I buy a few more shares at market (without free options) and provide nothing of value to the company and only minimal value to me adding to the risk. I took all I could afford and then took what I could afford in the shortfall. My average buy now being below the current sp as well. If the stock goes lower, which IMO is now unlikely then I will dollar cost average. I don't do this with every stock only stocks with lowering risk and inherent high future value. PEN fits this perfectly for me.

That out of the way let's look at (descending/falling) wedges, not the potato or door jam kind but the Technical Analysis (T/A) kind 

To start with have a look at this site, very interesting and put up for traders. Excellent simple explanations of chart patterns.
http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/BestBullish&BearishPatterns.html

Wedges - Falling
http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/image8UT.JPG

"*PATTERN CHARACTERISTICS *
*Bullish! - *
The failure rate for falling wedges is very low at 10% while the average rise of 43% for this indicator suggest a profitable formation to trade. The highest price after the breakout is approx. the beginning of the trendlines. Pattern 

*Shape - *
Two drawn downward-sloping to the right side trendlines that eventually must intersect. Use the trendline feature to draw the lines. Most formations have at least five touches. 3 on one side and 2 on the other side. 

*Trading Tactics -* 
Most falling wedges has a mininum duration of 3-wks or more. Anything less is most likely a pennant. Formations rarely exceed 4 months long.  

Be ready to cover when the falling wedges come to an intersect." 

If you also have a look at a "Broadening Falling Wedge" you will see the difference in the patterns with this pattern displaying a widening (broadening) bellows type pattern. This is a bearish pattern which is currently the case with the ASX200 amongst others. As opposed to PEN with a now very distinct "Descending Wedge" pattern.  Basically they are the reverse of each other.

"Broadening Falling Wedge"
http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/image6gl.jpg

And some stocks simply fall into the abyss, similar to what occurred to Futuris, BMN and many others. Not sure what you call a pattern that simply spikes straight down...a spear maybe???

Distinct aspects of a falling wedge are described above but also it is noted as a fall on very low volume. When the wedge begins to close to an apex at the bottom and volume begins to build on the buy side the sp breaks up trough the wedge upper side. To confirm it also needs to keep going. PEN has had a couple of false breakouts recently, but they were breakouts from the wedge pattern none the less.

Some very good explanations and examples here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge

Hope this helps with your question on this a little miner.


Now for grades.

When comparing grades of U stocks look at the mining method to be used. ISR has very high recovery rates compared to convential mining. ISR will recover far more than the conventional crush and mill method, also at a far lower operating expense (OPEX).

The grades PEN is getting from Lance for ISR are excellent. ISR is now proven to be economical with very low grades of around 100/200ppm, conventional mines are uneconomical at these levels. So when you are averaging around 700ppm as PEN is yes they are good grades for ISR.

Have a look at PNN and why they decided not to go ahead, more correctly shelved for now until the U price recovers. Very high grades but conventional methods at very high OPEX/CAPEX costs. BMN was hit hard for the same reasons and I am sure more will follow, except PEN.

There is an excellent read on this subject here:

*Exploding the Myth of Uranium
“Pounds in the Ground”

How Many Pounds Can a Company
Really Recover from ISR Uranium Mining?

The In Situ Recovery (ISR) Series
Part Two of a Three-Part Series*

What you shouold focus on with ISR is Permeability (Darcy rating), this is the key factor in uranium recovery for ISR. A little known factor is that PEN at Lance has a Darcy rating 5 times higher than nearby Uranerz at Nichols Ranch Wyoming and higher grades indicated.

Glenn Catchpole is the CEO of Uranerz. They are going ahead with ISR in Wyoming on values far less than PEN is displaying.

_"The make-break point for a formation’s permeability is its Darcy rating. How high is the Darcy? A typical Darcy can range from minus 1000 to plus 3. The higher the Darcy, the more permeable the formation and that would help determine how economic the orebody is. An acceptable range would be one-half to one Darcy. What is a Darcy? Catchpole said, “It is gallons per day over feet squared.” He added a pure hydrologist would calculate the feet per day or centimeters per second to get a more accurate permeability assessment. However, the Darcy is a widely accepted measuring unit in the industry.

Until a company gets its Darcy rating on its property, one can’t be completely certain the property can be mined by ISR. What guidelines does one depend upon? Catchpole said, “Historical research can give you permeability levels for a formation.” So we asked Catchpole how he felt about his Excalibur properties. He answered, “We know our properties are permeable enough.” How permeable will be answered with the pump tests."_

Hope this helps and all makes sense a little Miner. I did this on the run between client meetings and have to go now, things to do and places to go.

Cheers and keep smiling 
HS


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Thanks Miner.
> 
> First my disclaimer again....I am very much an amateur at charting. It is simply an aspect I am interested in. First and foremost I rely on fundamental analysis for intial stock selection. A little difficult with spec stocks such as PEN initially as they don't have an income as yet. Once I have selected a stock I am interested in *investing* in, I then have a look at the chart for an entry point. I don't chase running stocks.
> 
> Yes with hindsight you could suggest it may have been better not to particiapate, but it depends on ones viewpoint.
> 
> I am an investor in PEN, *"I want and need them to succeed"*. By taking part I add to the coffers of the company and aid in reducing risk. By not taking part I buy a few more shares at market (without free options) and provide nothing of value to the company and only minimal value to me adding to the risk. I took all I could afford and then took what I could afford in the shortfall. My average buy now being below the current sp as well. If the stock goes lower, which IMO is now unlikely then I will dollar cost average. I don't do this with every stock only stocks with lowering risk and inherent high future value. PEN fits this perfectly for me.
> 
> That out of the way let's look at (descending/falling) wedges, not the potato or door jam kind but the Technical Analysis (T/A) kind
> 
> To start with have a look at this site, very interesting and put up for traders. Excellent simple explanations of chart patterns.
> http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/BestBullish&BearishPatterns.html
> 
> Wedges - Falling
> http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/image8UT.JPG
> 
> "*PATTERN CHARACTERISTICS *
> *Bullish! - *
> The failure rate for falling wedges is very low at 10% while the average rise of 43% for this indicator suggest a profitable formation to trade. The highest price after the breakout is approx. the beginning of the trendlines. Pattern
> 
> *Shape - *
> Two drawn downward-sloping to the right side trendlines that eventually must intersect. Use the trendline feature to draw the lines. Most formations have at least five touches. 3 on one side and 2 on the other side.
> 
> *Trading Tactics -*
> Most falling wedges has a mininum duration of 3-wks or more. Anything less is most likely a pennant. Formations rarely exceed 4 months long.
> 
> Be ready to cover when the falling wedges come to an intersect."
> 
> If you also have a look at a "Broadening Falling Wedge" you will see the difference in the patterns with this pattern displaying a widening (broadening) bellows type pattern. This is a bearish pattern which is currently the case with the ASX200 amongst others. As opposed to PEN with a now very distinct "Descending Wedge" pattern.  Basically they are the reverse of each other.
> 
> "Broadening Falling Wedge"
> http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/image6gl.jpg
> 
> And some stocks simply fall into the abyss, similar to what occurred to Futuris, BMN and many others. Not sure what you call a pattern that simply spikes straight down...a spear maybe???
> 
> Distinct aspects of a falling wedge are described above but also it is noted as a fall on very low volume. When the wedge begins to close to an apex at the bottom and volume begins to build on the buy side the sp breaks up trough the wedge upper side. To confirm it also needs to keep going. PEN has had a couple of false breakouts recently, but they were breakouts from the wedge pattern none the less.
> 
> Some very good explanations and examples here:
> http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge
> 
> Hope this helps with your question on this a little miner.
> 
> 
> Now for grades.
> 
> When comparing grades of U stocks look at the mining method to be used. ISR has very high recovery rates compared to convential mining. ISR will recover far more than the conventional crush and mill method, also at a far lower operating expense (OPEX).
> 
> The grades PEN is getting from Lance for ISR are excellent. ISR is now proven to be economical with very low grades of around 100/200ppm, conventional mines are uneconomical at these levels. So when you are averaging around 700ppm as PEN is yes they are good grades for ISR.
> 
> Have a look at PNN and why they decided not to go ahead, more correctly shelved for now until the U price recovers. Very high grades but conventional methods at very high OPEX/CAPEX costs. BMN was hit hard for the same reasons and I am sure more will follow, except PEN.
> 
> There is an excellent read on this subject here:
> 
> *Exploding the Myth of Uranium
> “Pounds in the Ground”
> 
> How Many Pounds Can a Company
> Really Recover from ISR Uranium Mining?
> 
> The In Situ Recovery (ISR) Series
> Part Two of a Three-Part Series*
> 
> What you shouold focus on with ISR is Permeability (Darcy rating), this is the key factor in uranium recovery for ISR. A little known factor is that PEN at Lance has a Darcy rating 5 times higher than nearby Uranerz at Nichols Ranch Wyoming and higher grades indicated.
> 
> Glenn Catchpole is the CEO of Uranerz. They are going ahead with ISR in Wyoming on values far less than PEN is displaying.
> 
> _"The make-break point for a formation’s permeability is its Darcy rating. How high is the Darcy? A typical Darcy can range from minus 1000 to plus 3. The higher the Darcy, the more permeable the formation and that would help determine how economic the orebody is. An acceptable range would be one-half to one Darcy. What is a Darcy? Catchpole said, “It is gallons per day over feet squared.” He added a pure hydrologist would calculate the feet per day or centimeters per second to get a more accurate permeability assessment. However, the Darcy is a widely accepted measuring unit in the industry.
> 
> Until a company gets its Darcy rating on its property, one can’t be completely certain the property can be mined by ISR. What guidelines does one depend upon? Catchpole said, “Historical research can give you permeability levels for a formation.” So we asked Catchpole how he felt about his Excalibur properties. He answered, “We know our properties are permeable enough.” How permeable will be answered with the pump tests."_
> 
> Hope this helps and all makes sense a little Miner. I did this on the run between client meetings and have to go now, things to do and places to go.
> 
> Cheers and keep smiling
> HS




My Good ness
A wealth of information and thanks immensly.
How could you write such a good story in between meetings. You bloody has good client who pays  for writing stories in ASF 
Seriously good write up and very informative.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

No they wouldn't pay for that miner lol. However the benefits of operating a consultancy is my time is mine, except for when the client pays. When they aren't paying I do what I like.

One of the drawbacks though is you work when work is there and very little, if any time off...like now and the last few months.

Cheers and have a great weekend
HS


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

From the April US NRC Mine Permit meeting for anyone interested in ISR mine permitting. This is how PEN are going about it in Wyoming:

*Ross ISR Uranium Recovery Project_NRC Meeting Presentation*
https://www.yousendit.com/download/dXFVWGJPK3hubVh2Wmc9PQ


And if you haven't already, have a listen to Gus Simpson the MD this morning on BRR:
http://www.brr.com.au/event/66095/p...to-resource-mr-gus-simpson-executive-chairman

We are finally about to see the PFS results, has been a long time coming. PEN now way oversold and starting to gain attention again, not surprising at all.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Very lonely here...


 Outstanding PFS out last week, confirming the low Opex and Capex of Lance.
 Excellent drilling announcement again today with some peak vales of 2000ppm and almost all results over 200ppm and in a new location. So very likely the resource will be uograded.
 Volume increasing finally today

....but not a peep here

Thankfully the USA values ISR uranium projects 

Here is a comparison of PEN's Lance project, with what the USA regards as one of the good ones.

Both companies projects in the Powder River Basin Wyoming USA, both the same ISR process. Data sourced from the respective companies recent PFS.

Lance is also noted as having a Darcy rating around 4-5 times higher than Uranerz has reported (as mentioned here previously). 

Both companies are delineating further resources.

Uranerz is on a buy recommendation with 5 USA brokers and is ahead of PEN by 12mths on permitting and proposed start up. 

The figures speak for themselves. Also do a comparison of the Opex and Capex of PEN compared with conventional miners costs. You will see why ISR is so good.


PEN 15.1M/lbs - 
$72.1M Capex (of all plant and equipment including contingency for replacement cost of around $11M and mobile equipment) 
$21.42/lb Total Opex (including taxes and royalties)
$14.00/lb Opex 

Uranerz 11.25M/lbs - 
$85.2M Capex (of all plant and equipment not including any contingency for replacement cost of plant or any mobile plant) 
$32.70/lb Opex (including taxes and royalties, plus $6.70/lb toll processing fee)
$26.00/lb Opex


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Thankfully the USA values ISR uranium projects
> 
> Here is a comparison of PEN's Lance project, with what the USA regards as one of the good ones.
> 
> Both companies projects in the Powder River Basin Wyoming USA, both the same ISR process. Data sourced from the respective companies recent PFS.
> 
> Lance is also noted as having a Darcy rating around 4-5 times higher than Uranerz has reported (as mentioned here previously).
> 
> Both companies are delineating further resources.
> 
> Uranerz is on a buy recommendation with 5 USA brokers and is ahead of PEN by 12mths on permitting and proposed start up.
> 
> The figures speak for themselves. Also do a comparison of the Opex and Capex of PEN compared with conventional miners costs. You will see why ISR is so good.
> 
> 
> PEN 15.1M/lbs -
> $72.1M Capex (of all plant and equipment including contingency for replacement cost of around $11M and mobile equipment)
> $21.42/lb Total Opex (including taxes and royalties)
> $14.00/lb Opex
> 
> Uranerz 11.25M/lbs -
> $85.2M Capex (of all plant and equipment not including any contingency for replacement cost of plant or any mobile plant)
> $32.70/lb Opex (including taxes and royalties, plus $6.70/lb toll processing fee)
> $26.00/lb Opex



Good stats on the surface of it hang. What's the mc of both attributed to the projects? Would make the comparison clearer.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

My main focus was comparing the projects Kennas, but good point.

Not 100% accurate but very close at todays sp's:

URZ Mkt cap - USD$83,140,295 (~AUD$$94,779,937.10)

PEN Mkt cap - AUD$64,600,000 (~USD $56,666,666)

US brokers are suggesting URZ targets of USD$2.30 to USD$2.80 leading to production next year.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> My main focus was comparing the projects Kennas, but good point.
> 
> Not 100% accurate but very close at todays sp's:
> 
> URZ Mkt cap - USD$83,140,295 (~AUD$$94,779,937.10)
> 
> PEN Mkt cap - AUD$64,600,000 (~USD $56,666,666)
> 
> US brokers are suggesting URZ targets of USD$2.30 to USD$2.80 leading to production next year.



Just a very quick glance at URZ web site and they don't seem to have anything else on the radar except U in Wyoming, so probably a fair comparison.

PEN underdone by the look. 

Or, maybe URZ rated at production numbers.

Or, in the middle somewhere.

On the surface seems good for PEN future numbers.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

My apologies Kennas, I said 5 US brokers, it was 4 brokers 3 of them Canadian.

These brokers are suggesting URZ targets of USD$2.30 to USD$2.80 leading to production next year based on the current data.

as follows:

Versant Partners
01/21/2010
Buy C$2.80

Dundee Securities
06/08/2010
Buy C$2.35

GMP Securities
03/18/2010
Buy C$2.30

Haywood Securities
03/18/2010
Buy US$2.60


Hartleys had this on PEN in a recent buy recommendation report when comparing with ISR peers:

_"Analysis of US / Canadian listed peers, Uranerz, UR-Energy, Powertech and Uranium Energy Corp, indicates that ISR companies trade on an average multiple of A$13 per lb of inferred resource in North America. 

Using this benchmark against Peninsulas targeted 15mlb inferred resource by mid 2010 results in a valuation of $195m or 11cps, based on only the potential from the Ross and Barber sites. 

If the Company can prove up the stated exploration potential of 76mlb, this would result in a valuation close to $1b or ~57cps from Wyoming. 

*This does not include potential from the Companys assets in South Africa*."_

But as we all know the sp of PEN will be decided by the market no matter what is put up on the boards.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Crikey, have I got the stock code wrong here. 

PEN @ 0.034c. Must have a load on issue. Untidy. I guess they have been issuing and issuing to raise capital along the way.

Hartley's 6 mth target 0.094c! 

Crikey! Blue sky according to them.

Will be hard to beat 0.04c though I feel. If they do, major break.

Great support at 0.03. That looks hard to beat now too.

PS.

Have to take Hartley's price targets with a grain of salt.

In June 09 they had a 6 mth target of 0.082c when the stock was 0.031. Six months later 0.04c ish. Won't go too deeper than that at this stage.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yes Hartleys and almost every other brokers sp targets since the GFC. Definately not exclusive to PEN or Hartleys.

In fairness they had a target of 8.2 and it went quite strongly to 6.1 before the market started to crumble again. Can't hold that against Hartleys either. RCR also has a buy recommendation on PEN.

It will be very interesting to see what pans out from here though.

As for shares, yes they have a large number of shares on issue. However as you rightly pointed toward in your previous posting it is market cap that matters, not the number of shares on issue.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Yes Hartleys and almost every other brokers sp targets since the GFC. Definately not exclusive to PEN or Hartleys.
> 
> In fairness they had a target of 8.2 and it went quite strongly to 6.1 before the market started to crumble again. Can't hold that against Hartleys either. RCR also has a buy recommendation on PEN.
> 
> It will be very interesting to see what pans out from here though.
> 
> As for shares, yes they have a large number of shares on issue. However as you rightly pointed toward in your previous posting it is market cap that matters, not the number of shares on issue.



Yes GFC destroyed everything, and will again if it goes pear again. Right about shares on issue. Maybe they need to do a consolidation like EXT did a couple of years ago. Why have so many shares on issue?


----------



## Donga

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



kennas said:


> Yes GFC destroyed everything, and will again if it goes pear again. Right about shares on issue. Maybe they need to do a consolidation like EXT did a couple of years ago. Why have so many shares on issue?




Think PEN have been around a long time lol but hanseng's data is very compelling  and expect there is much upside on LT uranium prices given China and Obama dynamics. I'm in even though losing at present. Thank goodness for a couple of O&G plays that have outperformed in the past few weeks inc my rave PEP 11 project


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yes that could happen Kennas but I have discussed just that a couple of times and it receives a stern definate no each time.

Why so many shares? Simple it is either that or borrow funds. They have zero debt so a bonus. One thing it does do is provide liquidity, something I know EXT holders would have love to have had when the sp hit $10. To quote my friend who has. A load of ext "I couldn't sell as everyone was trying to and the stock wasn't liquid enough."

She still holds but is looking to get out now.

SDL has even more shares on issue. Might pay to watch that closelly


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

CEO/Chairman Gus Simpson on BRR, well worth a listen.


http://www.brr.com.au/event/67022/p...d-the-economics-of-uranium-mr-gus-simpson-ceo


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> CEO/Chairman Gus Simpson on BRR, well worth a listen.
> 
> 
> http://www.brr.com.au/event/67022/p...d-the-economics-of-uranium-mr-gus-simpson-ceo




Hi Hangseng

Where you have been ?

I thought you have taken retirement from PEN thread.

I have noted your postings and exchange with Kennas with great interest and definitely the data you posted are encouraging. Hope PEN rises to your expectation as well. I do mean being an existing holder !

I however do not make much credence on brokers' reports or BRR . They will publish when you commission them. Same goes with Aegis notes. 

But without being discounted on brokers' reports, prediction or BRR publicity on the face of it PEN has a great future. Uranium prices are going up and once feasibility study comes out in the market hopefully the prices will be greener.

Thanks again and take care


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Miner, I have been very busy of late and this thread was so quiet I got tired of chatting to myself 

I agree with your sentiments in general but it is all information. I for one never discount any information. To me it all goes to make up a part of the basis on which to make decisions.

I know Gus pretty well, and although he obviously can't divulge plans to me he does elaborate on already announced data. I can tell you I have never heard him as excited as he was today on BRR. 

With every day now I find more and more positives with PEN. Apart from the current sp I can't find one thing wrong with the company, the projects or the way they are progressing.

Many have attempted to dump on PEN with all manner of information. Most of which has progressively been proved to be either complete rubbish and in the case of another forum outright lying and manipulation of facts by traders.

I am very comfortable with my holdings in PEN and have increased again since the last CR. I will continue to do so now at every opportunity while PEN remains under the last CR price.

Hope your world is good mate.
Cheers
HS


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Hi Miner, I have been very busy of late and this thread was so quiet I got tired of chatting to myself
> 
> HS





Lol ....... Can't have you talking to yourself HS ...... 

I've been quietly accumulating this little "fella" for a while as well  (Hope thats not a reason to dump it !!

Uranium is the most likely candidate for the future of clean energy .... These guys (PEN) are way ahead of the pack if that is the case.  Great management team and quality resource with the potential for exponential increase in that regard ....... 

Nice SP increase recently after a long consolidation period ..... Basically, the fundamentals are lining up with the technicals ......  Looks V good in the medium/longer term ..... certainly worth checking out for those who haven't noticed it yet.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Still a way to go but PEN is really looking the goods project wise.

The big ticket items that will really get the sp moving though, in no particular order are:

Increased Jorc, especially to indicated
Permit approval
Funding

All we are doing at the moment is gathering up lost ground following the last 2 CR's and a down market generally. But great to see the corner finally turned.

T/A is starting to look a little healthy now.


----------



## eunza

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I don't usually trade / following penny stocks as they can be very unpredictable.  You can't really properly chart a very low price / low liquidity stock as they jump all over the place -

However PEN would be an exception for me - I've included a 3 day chart that smooths the recent action.  Sorry for an overload of information on the chart however I wanted to highlight the following:

Disclaimer - ALL chart information marked has been entered AFTER the fact. (as in today) so info is in hindsight.  

3 DAY
-  4 set grouping of similar RSCD chart action over 2 years.
-  Each SP upswing is preceeded by upward blue RCD swing (arrows on middle chart) - The larger the swing the more the momentum to swing back to a bullish result.
-  After each major blue RCD upswing the entrance point (pink) enters the Centre line (varies per entry).  
-  RSI also matches upward trendline approximately (only a secondary indicator))
-Volume increase up to and during start of upswings.

7 DAY
-  basic chart attached - highlights of RCD entry points (and relation to SP movement)

-eunza




hangseng said:


> Still a way to go but PEN is really looking the goods project wise.
> 
> The big ticket items that will really get the sp moving though, in no particular order are:
> 
> Increased Jorc, especially to indicated
> Permit approval
> Funding
> 
> All we are doing at the moment is gathering up lost ground following the last 2 CR's and a down market generally. But great to see the corner finally turned.
> 
> T/A is starting to look a little healthy now.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

For trading, that 4c mark still an issue, regardless of funnymentals. 

Investing wise, I have no idea on this one. 

Hartleys calling some odd 6 mth targets. One month up, the next month down. 

Aug .089

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-134--pohga.pdf

Jul .094

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-134--phain.pdf

May .089

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-134--eizua.pdf

huh?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

The only sp that will matter for me kennas is the one when PEN hits production. Anything in between is market noise.

Regardless of Hartleys or anyone else the market will decide what the sp will be in 6, 12, 18, 24 months time.

I would like to see another broker do a PEN analysis. So far only Hartleys and RCR Capital Research. Both of which report highly of PEN.

The interest is building slowly but surely though. Traders I am sure will again be all over PEN on each announcement now. Quite a few will be coming through as well from here on, so they will have plenty to play with I am sure.


----------



## eunza

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Still looking good.

note continued uptrend and high chance turnaround of RCD / RSI on the chart.


----------



## Megacents

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It would be good to read a report from someone else. This would give a different viewpoint.

I can understand why PEN does get traded. The SP slowly goes up hits a ceiling and then slowly goes down to a floor. Most time it is at most 0.5cents but it does give a return and can increase free carried stock, if you are in for the long term.

Should be a resource update soon.

invest well and thanks for the information

My thoughts are for entertainment only



hangseng said:


> I would like to see another broker do a PEN analysis. So far only Hartleys and RCR Capital Research. Both of which report highly of PEN.
> 
> The interest is building slowly but surely though. Traders I am sure will again be all over PEN on each announcement now. Quite a few will be coming through as well from here on, so they will have plenty to play with I am sure.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Megacents said:


> Should be a resource update soon.





A healthy 67% increase in the total resource estimate today ..... Considering they have only drilled a small portion of the potential resource, the future looks very positive for PEN. .... Management efficiently getting the job done as usual.


PENINSULA ANNOUNCES SIGNIFICANT RESOURCE UPGRADE AT
LANCE
Highlights:
● JORC-compliant Resource Estimate now totalling 25.2Mlbs U3O8 comprising:
● Initial Measured Resource of 3.6 Mlbs U3O8
● 130% increase in Indicated Resource from 4.0Mlbs U3O8 to 9.2Mlbs measured
and indicated
● Measured and Indicated U3O8, comprising 37% of the total resource estimate
● 67 % increase in total resource estimate
● 90% of Ross Permit Area Resource defined to Indicated or Measured Category
● Resource extension drilling continues with a further resource update expected
December 2010 as part of the Definitive Feasibility Study


----------



## eunza

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

An update :

PEN looking particularly bullish at the moment on DAILY chart:  I've circled the points of interest (green)

1.  Price action - closed above the upwards price trend.
2.  RCD - after 4th bounceback on support line maxing out on upper trend - Possible breakthrough today (below the lower line)
3.  Continued uptrend of RSI - latest retrace well above gradual trend.
4.  Significant Vol. increase.  

More of interest is the results on the 1/2 week (i use 3 day) & weekly charts

The strength of the longer term charts (and constant RCD Uptrend) indicates this is showing to be a potential longer term than the short term trade originally thought.

At this stage I would usually 'double up' the holdings.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thanks for the charts and analysis eunza, much appreciated 
From now on should get very interesting.


----------



## jetblack

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Would be interested to now whether Eunza doubled up on your call.

Significant volume increase goes no where , they are all just blow off tops.

Churn "n burn it.


----------



## sircorp

*PEN Completes Aquifer Pump Testing*

Well Hangseng

It has been long time you came to this forum, but things have started rolling in positive direction for PEN.

Specially Aquifer testing have put company closer to DDW licence.


----------



## sircorp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Well Eunza

Really wonderful charting skills you got. Do you mind having to look at new chart for PEN. Keeping the new news in mind, it will be worthwhile


----------



## sircorp

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I like your Quote "Churn n burn it"

I thought they call themselves Sophisticated Investors, i.e. " P & D" experts.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: Broker report and Strata Energy/PEN NRC Presentation*

Latest Hartleys report:
*http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul---euwie.pdf*


May be a little technical for some but this is an outstanding presentation given to the NRC in Wyoming by Strata Energy/PEN. Only one more quarterly update to go and then final permit submission . The file must be accessed direct from the site as it is 17.1Mb. The following was given to me to access it you must follow this path for those who care to.

Personal thanks to 'Yuro', a big shareholder and great researcher of PEN.

1. *http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams/adams-public.html*

2. Begin *'ADAMS Search'*

3. Go to *'Public Library'*

4. Log in as a *'guest'*

5. Go to *'recent released documents'*..go to third page

6. go to the last page *'September 2010'*

7. Then go to *Sept 14th*. You will find 250 documents in there, Strata Energy (PEN) is the *221st document*.


----------



## hkvan

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

 If the brokers see Pen as undervalued why is nobody acting on these reccomendadtions??


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Who said nobody is acting on them?

As an aside the latest RCR Capital Research report on PEN and the Uranium sector has just been released.

*PEN*
http://www.rcresearch.com.au/fdl?i=820

*Uranium Sector*
http://www.rcresearch.com.au/fdl?i=823

I am strongly of the opinion that by the time people do wake up to PEN the horse would have well and truly bolted and a lot of this will be going on


----------



## Donga

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Who said nobody is acting on them?
> 
> As an aside the latest RCR Capital Research report on PEN and the Uranium sector has just been released.
> 
> *PEN*
> http://www.rcresearch.com.au/fdl?i=820
> 
> *Uranium Sector*
> http://www.rcresearch.com.au/fdl?i=823
> 
> I am strongly of the opinion that by the time people do wake up to PEN the horse would have well and truly bolted and a lot of this will be going on




Things warming up for PEN in more ways than one, lol! Uranium price on the rise, suppliers keen for when PEN starts producing hopefully in 2012 and recent news from PEN all good - one of the most undervalued stocks going around IMO. 

Not much time left for accumulation - go the PEN!


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Donga said:


> Things warming up for PEN in more ways than one, lol! Uranium price on the rise, suppliers keen for when PEN starts producing hopefully in 2012 and recent news from PEN all good - one of the most undervalued stocks going around IMO.
> 
> Not much time left for accumulation - go the PEN!




No arguments on all the above from the current shareholders Donga 

Not a lot of talk on ASF for PEN, but for those that aren't aware of what they are up to .....  it may pay to read the latest Hartley Broker Report.

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-134--aixoo.pdf


----------



## mr. jeff

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

HI Barney,
thanks for the link, reading through the brokers report, and apart from looking interesting and promising in many area, I note that there are 670M options out there at 3c. Haven't determined expiry date yet. Though I'd just bring this up for anyone that didn't see.
I like the idea that they are being very proactive with the nuclear reg. commission to ensure permitting is conducted without hiccups; they seem to be smart and proactive. 2c


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



mr. jeff said:


> HI Barney,
> thanks for the link, reading through the brokers report, and apart from looking interesting and promising in many area, I note that there are 670M options out there at 3c. Haven't determined expiry date yet. Though I'd just bring this up for anyone that didn't see.
> I like the idea that they are being very proactive with the nuclear reg. commission to ensure permitting is conducted without hiccups; they seem to be smart and proactive. 2c




Howdy Mr J, 

PEN has two series of tradeable options :- PENOA, exercisable by June 2012,  and PENOC, exercisable by December 2015,  both at 3 cents. 

Even though the share register is large, there is essentially no difference between a 2 billion share register at 5 cents, and a 200 million share register at 50 cents  ie. Same market Cap. Their current MC is about $80 million, so lots of headroom there still. 

Management is definitely "proactive" as you say.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Good to see a few new faces here.

Things for you to look forward to:


NRC Site visit update - imminent as it was completed last week and feedback positive.
Final permit submission - in progress and will be submitted anytime between now and Dec
Cornerstone investor about to come on board folowing the AGM
Funding being sourced by Rockbury's principal Gerard Holden - watch this man closely and have a read about him. http://gerardholden.com/about/
Imminent jorc resource upgrade
DFS conclusion

And a little chart from today to ponder...

This was before close today so the last candle is actually 5c and green now.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Good to see a few new faces here.
> 
> Things for you to look forward to:
> 
> 
> NRC Site visit update - imminent as it was completed last week and feedback positive.
> Final permit submission - in progress and will be submitted anytime between now and Dec
> Cornerstone investor about to come on board folowing the AGM
> Funding being sourced by Rockbury's principal Gerard Holden - watch this man closely and have a read about him. http://gerardholden.com/about/
> Imminent jorc resource upgrade
> DFS conclusion
> 
> And a little chart from today to ponder...
> 
> This was before close today so the last candle is actually 5c and green now.




Lots of good things happening for sure HS.  Gerard Holden is obviously a smart cookie, and no surprise to see PEN utilising the services of quality people for their financing.

Re the chart:-  Technically it looks like we could benefit from one more retracement/consolidation area to base the next up move off, but considering the way the price action has been forming, it would be no surprise to see this jump sharply on the next announcement or two with no real consolidation at all.  Either way, it is looking good.


----------



## rhyslivs

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

It looks like PEN burnt through $5mil of cash in the last quarter and only have $4mil going forward.  Are you guys expecting a cap raising soon or is there something else going on?


----------



## mr. jeff

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



rhyslivs said:


> It looks like PEN burnt through $5mil of cash in the last quarter and only have $4mil going forward.  Are you guys expecting a cap raising soon or is there something else going on?




see above posts and



> PENINSULA APPOINTS ROCKBURY CAPITAL TO SOURCE PROJECT FINANCE
> Peninsula Minerals Limited (“the Company”) is pleased to announce the appointment of Dubai
> based Rockbury Capital (“Rockbury”) to provide a range of services in connection with the
> financing of the Lance uranium projects in Wyoming, USA (“Lance”).
> Rockbury’s extensive international experience, particularly in the resources industry......




news release, 28th October 2010. This would solve the cash issue ?


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



rhyslivs said:


> It looks like PEN burnt through $5mil of cash in the last quarter and only have $4mil going forward.  Are you guys expecting a cap raising soon or is there something else going on?





_*"Cash Position*The Company’s cash position at the end of the quarter, including commercial bills, bonds and security deposits, was $4.1 million. *The combined cash position including the rights issue funds is $8.2 million*."_

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-23--vakuk.pdf

They are also putting up at the AGM this week an issue of 250,000,000 shares to a "cornerstone investor" "at a premium to the share price" for shareholder approval.


----------



## Ping

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hello all,

Pen has about 600,000,000 issued options to be exercised at 3 cents according to the recent announcement on the 2nd of this month They also have about 65,000,000 un-issued options according to the same announcement. So on top of the 1.6 billion shares currently on issue, PEN has about 2.3 billion shares fully diluted at the moment. Is this correct? I have heard people state 3 billion fully diluted? Can anyone please clarify, thanks in advance.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ping said:


> Hello all,
> 
> Pen has about 600,000,000 issued options to be exercised at 3 cents according to the recent announcement on the 2nd of this month They also have about 65,000,000 un-issued options according to the same announcement. So on top of the 1.6 billion shares currently on issue, PEN has about 2.3 billion shares fully diluted at the moment. Is this correct? I have heard people state 3 billion fully diluted? Can anyone please clarify, thanks in advance.




Hi Ping,

As at the 28th October, 2895.9 million shares (fully diluted, including ALL options)

Estimated current market cap approx $86 million.

What punters need to remember is the relationship between Market Cap and Share Price.  ie. Lets assume ALL options are exercised tomorrow and we have 2895.9 million shares on issue at the current SP of 5.4 cents...... If the Company did a 10:1 share consolidation tomorrow, we would then have 290 million shares at a Share Price of 54 cents per share ..... hardly anything unusual about that ..... Sometimes the high number of shares on issue seems to spook investors, when in reality, its simply a mental barrier which needs to be addressed .... The fundamentals dictate that a high volume producer of Uranium, which PEN will be in the not too distant future, does not operate on a Market Cap of $86 million .... In a year or two those numbers will simply not stack up in my honest opinion


----------



## Ping

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi Barney,

I see your point with the market cap issue. PEN has small market cap that could inflate nicely with Wyoming on line and great drill results in South Africa. I am a PEN holder however I am somewhat concerned not so much about the amount of shares currently on issue but rather the amount of options out there, 1.5 billion. This can't be healthy for the share price. You would think most of those 1.5 billion options will be exercised. So yeah we are looking at 3 billion shares on issue down the track. Market cap wise this would still look good by far compared to a Paladin. Yeah its a psychological thing, market cap is the important factor however easy to focus on the number of shares.

I guess also there is a positive to all this, at least PEN have cash to work with down the track when these options are called. I am sure there will be plenty of drilling in South Africa down the track that needs to be paid for. Hopefully it is a killer high grade low depth deposit which can be open pit mined, .

This stock outside of EXT is the only one really that looks like going into production at some stage. So many rubbish U stocks out there. I reckon PEN management see a chance to earn a fair bit of cash individually out of all this potential, I mean moving from the millionaires club some way onto the billionaires club. Gus has I think 28 million ordinary shares. If U spot price goes for another run, PEN can potentially hit a few dollars. This would make Gus a very wealthy man. Point is I think management has huge incentive to see this thing reach its full potential. All my opinion of course and perhaps somewhat hyped,

Cheers.


----------



## Donga

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ping said:


> Hi Barney,
> 
> I see your point with the market cap issue. PEN has small market cap that could inflate nicely with Wyoming on line and great drill results in South Africa. I am a PEN holder however I am somewhat concerned not so much about the amount of shares currently on issue but rather the amount of options out there, 1.5 billion. This can't be healthy for the share price. You would think most of those 1.5 billion options will be exercised. So yeah we are looking at 3 billion shares on issue down the track. Market cap wise this would still look good by far compared to a Paladin. Yeah its a psychological thing, market cap is the important factor however easy to focus on the number of shares.
> 
> I guess also there is a positive to all this, at least PEN have cash to work with down the track when these options are called. I am sure there will be plenty of drilling in South Africa down the track that needs to be paid for. Hopefully it is a killer high grade low depth deposit which can be open pit mined, .
> 
> This stock outside of EXT is the only one really that looks like going into production at some stage. So many rubbish U stocks out there. I reckon PEN management see a chance to earn a fair bit of cash individually out of all this potential, I mean moving from the millionaires club some way onto the billionaires club. Gus has I think 28 million ordinary shares. If U spot price goes for another run, PEN can potentially hit a few dollars. This would make Gus a very wealthy man. Point is I think management has huge incentive to see this thing reach its full potential. All my opinion of course and perhaps somewhat hyped,
> 
> Cheers.




Let's not worry about number of shares as barney points out this can be addressed through a share reconsolidation, BLY comes to mind. 

Also not worried about hype, if anything more concerned about a takeover as this stock is only beginning its climb before they start producing in 2012.

Many boxes have been ticked recently including JORC resource almost doubled this year, interest from utilities for supply from 2012, and exemplary regulatory progress. Urge anyone who hasn't read this broker report (recognising they are consultants) to take a gander: http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-134--aixoo.pdf. First we take Wyoming, then we take Karoo. 

One of the best bets going around IMHO. Go the PEN


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Not sure where you people get your information from.

Options on issue 624 million

FPO Shares 1,633 million


A little read as well for you all.

http://www.fostock.com.au/talkingpoint/Uranium101019.pdf



> The stocks we favour in the current environment are the uranium exploration companies, most notably Extract Resources (EXT), *Peninsula Minerals (PEN)* and UraniumSA (USA).




Tide has turned, they have PDN as a SELL and *PEN as a BUY*


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Not sure where you people get your information from.
> 
> Options on issue 624 million
> 
> FPO Shares 1,633 million
> 
> 
> A little read as well for you all.
> 
> http://www.fostock.com.au/talkingpoint/Uranium101019.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> Tide has turned, they have PDN as a SELL and *PEN as a BUY*




Market Capitalisation $78m 

Issued Capital 1633.1m 
Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. ITM options) 2895.9m 
Options 679.8m@$A0.03

Howdy HS,  I may be mis-interpreting the In the Money Options, but 2895.9m is the fully diluted figure from Hartleys latest report as at 28th October 2010.  It doesn't make a great deal of difference in the overall scheme of things, but just thought I'd clarify where my figures came from .... Don't want other punters to think I'd try and lead them astray on purpose 
Cheers.


----------



## yarrabah

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

1,633 million - shares
624 million - Options

= 2,257 m

with cr or two to come


----------



## Ping

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

1,633 million - shares
624 million - Options

= 2,257 m

This does not include unlisted options which make up the difference to 3 billion. You would think most of these unlisted options are held by PEN directors. I guess the logic is to hold onto experienced and skilled U mining staff. 

I hope there are not to many CR's to come. Hopefully they sell Raki Raki and get some extra cash that way. 

50 mill required for Wyoming capital costs. Not an overly huge amount. Hopefully PEN can get a cornerstone investor and borrow the rest to cover expenses.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ping said:


> 1,633 million - shares
> 624 million - Options
> 
> = 2,257 m
> 
> This does not include unlisted options




Correct on the Unlisted Options Ping .... although total is a bit less.

OK, I'm not being pedantic here, but for the sake of being absolutely correct so we Punters know exactly where we stand ... here are the numbers Direct from the Company .... (Thank you Jonathon) ...

PEN Ord              1,637,297,877

PENOA                  204,319,726

PENOC                  408,928,098

Unlisted Ops           14,000,000

Performance           53,500,000

No further questions your honour !


----------



## Ping

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hey look I wish there are as minimal unlisted options as possible. If Hartleys say 3 billion, then there must be more unlisted options. I hope there are less but do not think so. Has Harlteys made a mistake??? More clarification is required on this matter. I mean an extra 750 million unlisted options makes some sort of difference. I would love this stock that much more if around 2.2 billion was fully diluted. I don't think it is though.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ping said:


> Hey look I wish there are as minimal unlisted options as possible. If Hartleys say 3 billion, then there must be more unlisted options. I hope there are less but do not think so. Has Harlteys made a mistake??? More clarification is required on this matter. I mean an extra 750 million unlisted options makes some sort of difference. I would love this stock that much more if around 2.2 billion was fully diluted. I don't think it is though.




Hi Ping ... You may have misconstrued my post as being directed at your figures ... To the contrary, we were on the same wavelength, thats why I referenced the Hartley report at 2895.9 million fully diluted.

Let me clarify what my post was trying to convey .... 

This is from the horses mouth so to speak, and I'm sure Jonathon Whyte won't mind cause I mentioned it was to clarify this position on a Forum site ... 
(For anyone who doesn't know, Jonathon Whyte is the Company Secretary of PEN)

His response to my asking how many shares/options are currently on issue was:-

Dear ######,

Below are the current shares and options on issue. The Hartleys report total is a projected fully diluted number which incorporates certain assumptions on future equity raisings (using conceptual debt/equity split ratios).  

The numbers below are the actual issued capital as at today.


PEN Ord              1,637,297,877

PENOA                  204,319,726

PENOC                  408,928,098

Unlisted Ops           14,000,000

Performance           53,500,000



Kind Regards

Jonathan

Hope that clarifies Hartleys calculations, and helps anyone who wanted to know the exact figures.

Cheers.


----------



## Ping

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Thankyou very much Barney that is great news. PEN is a very strong stock. 100 % ownership of Wyoming. The Wyoming operation is on its own huge. If they can get a decent grade in South Africa this company will make many people rich. They are targetting 700-1400 ppm in South Africa. In my opinion anything above 300 ppm will be great. A monster deposit in South Africa with U prices rising, Wyoming coming on line, etc... will see this stock be the next PDN. So many dud U stocks on the markets at the moment. Out of the 70 listed exploration plays or so on the ASX you would have to say EXT and PEN are the only real decent ones. Yeah people talk about BMN, grade to low. People talk about AGS, 25 % stake only. MTN to many issues permitting. PEN is the best of the lot. I have a few friends who are into U stocks and some don't even know about PEN yet??? This is one good thing about PEN if you want to take up a position now, that is, it is still an obscure stock. Not sure how though? This stock has potential to be a dollar plus in years to come without a consolidation and with 3 billion shares on issue.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Ping said:


> Thankyou very much Barney that is great news. PEN is a very strong stock. 100 % ownership of Wyoming. The Wyoming operation is on its own huge. If they can get a decent grade in South Africa this company will make many people rich. They are targetting 700-1400 ppm in South Africa. In my opinion anything above 300 ppm will be great. A monster deposit in South Africa with U prices rising, Wyoming coming on line, etc... will see this stock be the next PDN. So many dud U stocks on the markets at the moment. Out of the 70 listed exploration plays or so on the ASX you would have to say EXT and PEN are the only real decent ones. Yeah people talk about BMN, grade to low. People talk about AGS, 25 % stake only. MTN to many issues permitting. PEN is the best of the lot. I have a few friends who are into U stocks and some don't even know about PEN yet??? This is one good thing about PEN if you want to take up a position now, that is, it is still an obscure stock. Not sure how though? This stock has potential to be a dollar plus in years to come without a consolidation and with 3 billion shares on issue




The company certainly look the goods I agree, and unlike many others, their communication with share holders is excellent.

Considering PDN has a M/C of $3.3 billion, even if PEN achieve a modest market cap of $250 million, their SP will be around 15 cents, which is very good risk vs reward at a current SP of 6 ish


----------



## Ping

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Great movement with the PEN today. On top of the strong share price growth is the good volume. A lot of people who bought down low will be taking profits and allowing a new crop of shareholders in at a higher prices. This stock can do anything at the moment, nothing will surprise me. Plenty of accumulation going on until the thing just pops. These movements hint at the fact Wyoming mining permit is a certainty. I hope we have a great ride in 2011-12. Hard to see typical PEN corrections of the past surfacing again, could be wrong though. 

Common joe blow seeing uranium price rising will want to get into unranium. With a little bit of research they will determine that EXT and PEN are the only really good options here on the ASX. Can only see incremental rises in PEN regardless of DOW action.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

A few articles on uranium and Wyoming you may be interested in. Also another brokers report.


*Uranium price increase creating opportunities in well placed
exploration companies. Foster Stockbroking.*

http://www.fostock.com.au/talkingpoint/Uranium101019.pdf


*Nuclear Renaissance: Uranium Miners Nearing Production in Wyoming*

http://seekingalpha.com/article/231...-uranium-miners-nearing-production-in-wyoming


*Time to Buy Uranium Miners In Wyoming?*

http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/5129/time-to-buy-uranium-miners-in-wyoming.html



*Uranium Mining in Wyoming*

http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/500...ource=UraniumInvestingNews&utm_medium=twitter


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

0.059 for todays close,  i'm hoping. based on the excellent sales growth and previous track record of PEN we might have a better week next week.


----------



## Donga

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

This one is a no brainer IMHO. Management has a talent for doing everything right as well as and communicting, especially as regards the critical approvals element. We know they have the resource and hard to see uranium not increasing in demand leading up to 2012 production. 

Thanks hangseng for the your obsessive updating here and elsewhere. Been accumulating this puppy over past 12 months as a consequence and is in my top three holdings along with PEP 11 and another Wyoming performer.  

DYOR folks on this one and consider the energy landscape in 2012 and beyond. 

Patience, research and a solid LT selling plan could be well rewarded IMHO, Upmarket


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

The market general has no idea atm, but Gerard Holden is about to pull together the financials for the BFS and in the wings they wait.

I can see now why they engaged him. As you say donga...
_"Management has a talent for doing everything right as well as and communicting"_

Watch what they do next


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

most companies took a hammering today. PEN holding up quite well. be interesting if good management and fundamentals can take this over priced company back up to the the previous resistance.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



steelinoz said:


> most companies took a hammering today. PEN holding up quite well. be interesting if good management and fundamentals can take this _over priced company_ back up to the the previous resistance.




ROLOL...now that is a baseless glass half empty statement.

Based on what may I ask?


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

PEN. has a current Value of 0.03 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of 0.06 per share. that's what it is based on. nothing half empty about it.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

I will stick to the valuations of recognised companies like Hartleys and Resource Capital Research. 

Both much higher than your baseless and unsubstantiated comment that places PEN below NAV, let alone the value of Lance alone.

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-134--aixoo.pdf

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/images/peninsul-134--duova.pdf


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Aside from all this here is a little listen for anyone who is interested.

*November 19, 2010
Mercenary Musings Radio: Uranium - A Prediction Comes to Pass  (New)* 
http://www.goldgeologist.com/audio/RobertGraham/MercenaryRadio20101119.mp3

It came from this website by USA geologist Mickey Phulp who has been bullish on uranium like me since January 2009.
http://www.mercenarygeologist.com/


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> I will stick to the valuations of recognised companies like Hartleys and Resource Capital Research.
> 
> Both much higher than your baseless and unsubstantiated comment that places PEN below NAV, let alone the value of Lance alone.[/url]




both of your sources are dated, 24 of sep, and 28 of oct. anything more up to date? my information is current. 

Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Yes they are dated Sep and Oct 2010 respectively, PEN has improved substantially since then.

I will stick to recognised relevant valuations and peer comparisons and not your baseless statement.

"Current" you say? From who?


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Yes they are dated Sep and Oct 2010 respectively, PEN has improved substantially since then.





so nothing up to date? we are discussing pen today, not pen of 2 months ago. 

looks like it improved rite up till today.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



steelinoz said:


> so nothing up to date? we are discussing pen today, not pen of 2 months ago.
> 
> looks like it improved rite up till today.




Steel,

So far you have provided no analysis of why you think this is a 3c company apart from macro factors. If you do think it is overvalued then please share your analysis.

Thanks


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

here's further broker research from the pen website dated june to october.

http://www.peninsulaminerals.com.au/investor_info/broker_research.phtml


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

You need to get up to date:

http://www.pel.net.au/investor_info/broker_research.phtml

Pray tell if you don't recognise the links I put up, why are you are doing the same now? ...and with the old website and going back even further to June 2009 


Won't be long and another will be up lol.


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



prawn_86 said:


> Steel,
> 
> So far you have provided no analysis of why you think this is a 3c company apart from macro factors. If you do think it is overvalued then please share your analysis.
> 
> Thanks




Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.  PEN has a current Value of 0.03 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of 0.06 per share.  Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.


Peninsula Minerals   Pricing as of 22/11/2010


RV (Relative Value) 0.54   
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio) 999.99  
RS (Relative Safety) 0.83   
DIV (Dividend Paid) 0.00  
RT (Relative Timing) 1.85   
DY (Dividend Yield) 0.00 
VST (VST Vector) 1.27   
YSG (Yield Safety Growth Vector) 0.00  
GRT (Growth Rate) 0.00   
Sales (Yearly Sales - $ Millions) $0.00  
EPS (Earnings Per Share) $0.00   
Mkt Cap (Market Capitalization - $ Millions) $101.00  
EY (Earnings Yield) -0.19   
CI (Comfort Index) 0.58  

the above is worked out on a closing price of 0.06, so at todays close it should even be lower than a value of 0.03.

hope that helps prawn.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Very good, even made to look like you worked it out. Of which of course you didn't now did you...so perhaps you should quote your source hmmmm.

Also as you would no doubt be aware, valuation of speculative advanced explorers, is not the same as general market valuation of operating producing companies. So that valuation methodology is flawed purely on that basis alone.

Again I will stick to specific and relevant valuations and peer comparisons.

It will be good to put that up again in 2 years time and beyond though.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Enjoying the little chat.

Despite the little drop back today here is another for you...I have just highlighted a couple of snippets 

source:
http://www.buysellsignals.com
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 23 2010

_*RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:*
The Price to Book of 2.0 lower than average of 4.0 for the Materials sector and 2.6 for the Total Australian Market.

*RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:*
The price soared 34.9% in the last month.
This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.9 times average for the month.

*In the Australian market of 1,365 stocks and 66 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 88 which means it is beating 88% of the market.*
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.2, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.2 22 times suggesting further upside.

The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 5.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 4.0c.

*In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high five times, pointing to an uptrend.*

*Bearish Signals:*
The price dropped 4.9% in the last week.
This has been exacerbated by firm volume of 1.9 times average for the week.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which fell 2.2% for the week, this represented a relative price decrease of 2.7% for the week._


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Very good, even made to look like you worked it out. Of which of course you didn't now did you...so perhaps you should quote your source hmmmm.




i never once stated that i worked it out, all i have done is make a post, not rude, not inflamatory, not baseless as you said. just an ordinary post and you are the one jumping to conclusions because what i post does not suit you.


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



steelinoz said:


> i never once stated that i worked it out, all i have done is make a post, not rude, not inflamatory, not baseless as you said. just an ordinary post and you are the one jumping to conclusions because what i post does not suit you.




No you didn't but always nice to quote the source:
http://www.vectorvest.com/stockanalysis/


It was baseless until you provided what you did so all could see and make up their own minds as to relevancy. Also it suits me just fine, and will more so when as it becomes more relevant when PEN becomes a income earning producer in a little over 13 months time.

I will be quite happy just accumulating at every opportunity that crops up as and when I can afford to. Bounced nicely of that 5.7 support today, must hold but it is looking just fine


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



steelinoz said:


> so nothing up to date? we are discussing pen today, not pen of 2 months ago.
> 
> looks like it improved rite up till today.




Dear Steelinoz

May I request if you please put restraint on your comments. It is a serious forum and Hangseng provides excellent value based comments in PEN and other stocks . 

In my eyes I do value his opinion, analysis and conviction based on facts and figures. It is different that I do not have same level of astuteness and patience like him. 

HS has been a regular contributor to PEN for long time . If you have something to contribute please do so. But please do not throw sweeping joke or comments before making any contribution.

It hurts the sentiment of the forum and spoils the fragrance.

Thanks for your understanding and solidarity to the fellow ASF participants.

Hangseng - please keep your usual cool and just regard some stray comments as a  noise to a good electronic signal.

disclaimer - DNH any more PEN (regrettably)


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

Hi there miner, hope all is well with you and yours.

Some excellent buying opportunities appearing again today. I often complain about some day trading activity, however I should balance it by stating they provide the most extraordinarily excellent buys when they panic lol.

I simply rest easy and buy what I can of what they can't/won't hold. Those that understand "gaps" will see an outstanding opportunity right now. They normally get filled both ways 

Lets just call it a "Buffet moment"


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



steelinoz said:


> Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.  PEN has a current Value of 0.03 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of 0.06 per share.  Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.
> 
> hope that helps prawn.




I still can't see how you arrived at 3 cents a share as value, you have provided no calculations etc working it out. All you have done is copied your brokers analysis, which doesn't show this 'value' that you are on about.

If you want to contribute seriously to this forum i suggest you read the site rules and guidelines.

Any more off topic posts will be removed (that goes for all thread participants)

Thanks


----------



## thestevo888

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



hangseng said:


> Hi there miner, hope all is well with you and yours.
> 
> Some excellent buying opportunities appearing again today. I often complain about some day trading activity, however I should balance it by stating they provide the most extraordinarily excellent buys when they panic lol.
> 
> I simply rest easy and buy what I can of what they can't/won't hold. Those that understand "gaps" will see an outstanding opportunity right now. They normally get filled both ways
> 
> Lets just call it a "Buffet moment"




Couldn't agree more - although with the air of doom and gloom pervading various parts of the world, perhaps another day or two may see even better opportunities? 
I stumbled across this stock last night on the forum, have since read almost everything on the web about it (somewhat bleary eyed now!) and am incredibly excited...a remarkable opportunity, IMO. As has been mentioned, there's a huge flow of news expected in the next weeks/months - surely, macro factors aside, we are looking at a company with enormous potential
In for all I've got (spare!)


----------



## steelinoz

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*

quite surprised to see gap down when i logged on today, but still holding and will continue to do so for the present due to PEN up comming announcements and overall prospects for this company. only my opinion of course.

instead of going further south be nice to see it breach that gap and head north. and with the fundamentals of PEN i can't see why that isn't possible. imo.:::


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



steelinoz said:


> Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.  PEN has a current Value of 0.03 per share. Therefore, *it is overvalued *compared to its Price of 0.06 per share.  ..... so at todays close it should even be lower than a value of 0.03.
> 
> hope that helps prawn.






steelinoz said:


> quite surprised to see gap down when i logged on today, but *still holding and will continue to do so for the present due to PEN up comming announcements and overall prospects* for this company. only my opinion of course.
> 
> instead of going further south be nice to see it breach that gap and head north. and with the fundamentals of PEN i can't see why that isn't possible. imo.:::




Ok Steelo .... You've basically admitted to down ramping ... That probably won't wash around here 

Doesn't worry me personally, but you aren't gona do yourself any favours as far as credibility goes ..... and unless you are a "big player" who is turning over a lot of stock, I don't actually see the purpose of your motive  ??

Good luck with your holding anyway.


----------



## thestevo888

Big jump in price today, on the back on solid volume... perhaps an announcement in the wings? Hit 7.1c durin the first hours' trading... will be interesting to see what develops from here.


----------



## hangseng

thestevo888 said:


> Big jump in price today, on the back on solid volume... perhaps an announcement in the wings? Hit 7.1c durin the first hours' trading... will be interesting to see what develops from here.




stevo there is no secret at all that PEN are about to announce the final mine permit submission and a resource upgrade. You could regard both as imminent due to the MD stating just recently on BRR and also at the AGM that this would occur as planned in Dec 2010.

Both of those are expected as a MINIMUM before the end of the year.

I shake my head that little to no interest has come in from ASF posters on PEN in the last year. It was obvious to blind freddy that PEN was going to be re-rated, and it has been...significantly already with more to come.

Gus has been on a roadshow in Sydney and Melbourne this past week with Shaws Stockbroking. I am also now expecting a report from Shaws.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> stevo there is no secret at all that PEN are about to announce the final mine permit submission and a resource upgrade. You could regard both as imminent due to the MD stating just recently on BRR and also at the AGM that this would occur as planned in Dec 2010.
> 
> Both of those are expected as a MINIMUM before the end of the year.
> 
> *I shake my head that little to no interest has come in from ASF posters on PEN in the last year*. It was obvious to blind freddy that PEN was going to be re-rated, and it has been...significantly already with more to come.
> 
> Gus has been on a roadshow in Sydney and Melbourne this past week with Shaws Stockbroking. I am also now expecting a report from Shaws.






Regarding the red bit highlighted above ..... Some of us have our own "selfish" agenda HS, and don't want to let the cat out of the bag too early :

Your continued "appreciation" of this well run company is noted in cyberspace and I'm sure there are many on ASF like me that are just waiting for the inevitable .... Based on market cap and fundamentals alone, I personally see this as medium term almost 50% undervalued even based on todays close


----------



## hangseng

LOL Barney, point taken.

To put it more bluntly, I get bored chatting to myself 

On a slightly more serious note though, I learn as much from (some) other posters as I do the information I share with others. I would rather not engage the trolls who were kicked of other sites coming here with the same garbage. Thankfully they don't last long here.

This is a classic rags to riches story unfolding IMO. PEN has been the ugly duckling of the market and unloved, even ridiculed on forums and by a few brokers I spoke to in the past. Thankfully I relied more on my own information and ongoing research, rather than their "stick to the ASX 300" view. 

Had I stuck to their view, especially some of the picks they indicated, my SMSF would still be floundering as it did under "professional" management.

Through sticking to my conviction that PEN would one day be a producer, and sooner than most of the uranium hopefuls. I have managed to make my super look just that SUPER. Something managed funds never achieved in over 10 years, didn't stop them charging me those ever increasing fees though.

PEN is still a speculative stock, and not without risk, however it is being de-risked rapidly now and will continue to be.

I applaud Gus Simpsons outstanding management methodology of engaging the right people and empowerment. Through his efforts and that of the outstanding people he has surrounded himself with, PEN is now receiving the attention it deserves.

Through my work I get to analyse the risk on many conceptual projects and the related feasibility studies. Entering and increasing my holding in PEN was one of the easiest decisions I have ever had to make.

I now expect an outstanding DFS that will take PEN directly into a positive funding outcome by Gerard Holden. It will be more outstanding than some expect due to the outcome of the RFP submissions due to the increased uranium demand and ever increasing jorc resource and uranium price. The economics of this project are simply going to be outstanding, of that I am in no doubt.

I really look forward to 2011 and beyond, the information flow in 2011 especially


----------



## thestevo888

Trading halt - capital raising... I was expecting some good news before they tried this - ie, mine permit submission, etc... should be interesting to get further details. Thoughts, HS, et al?


----------



## hangseng

This is my view and comes as no surprise at all.

_"RESOLUTION 6 SHARE PLACEMENT FACILITY
To consider and, if thought fit, to pass, with or without amendment, the following resolution as an ordinary resolution:

That, for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 7.1 and for all other purposes, approval is given for the Company to allot and issue up to 250,000,000 Shares at an issue price of not less than 80% of the average market price for Shares on the five trading days prior to the issue of the Shares, to institutional and professional and sophisticated investors and otherwise on the terms and conditions set out in the Explanatory Statement:"
PENINSULA MINERALS LIMITED
NOTICE OF ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
4 November 2010
Page: 5_
Current VWAP .0791
80% = 0.06328

My guess is 6c at least. I would be disappointed if this included free attaching options and it wasn't offered to LT shareholders though. If they get a discount to the sp there should be no free options at all.

Potentially this could raise up to $15,000.000 and reduce the funding requirements. Add in they may have struck a deal via the RFP's and we may be well on the way to the funding required. Gerard Holden would then have an easy task.

It also comes as no surprise to me that this has occurred following the Shaws Uranium Conference and funds roadshow last week.


----------



## mr. jeff

HS I also watch closely, but can't just write a 'hello' here every now and then!

Well after announcing this new capital that PEN will have access to very shortly, and raised at 7.5cps, met by euphoria on the day (are we allowed to use that word here?) it seems that people were happy enough with the run and jumped ship; if anything it could have been expected that PEN would slump to 7.5c and then sit still until the announcement of permitting...

But in my eyes this news is great, the future looks better today for PEN than 3 days ago, and there is still news in the wings.

This large volume that has been put through in the last 5 trading days hopefully has reduced the selling side for PEN now; this may help clear the deck for the expected news. Note that the gaps have essentially been neatly filled already - may be helpful...daily chart.


----------



## barney

mr. jeff said:


> But in my eyes this news is great, the future looks better today for PEN than 3 days ago, and there is still news in the wings.
> 
> This large volume that has been put through in the last 5 trading days hopefully has reduced the selling side for PEN now; this may help clear the deck for the expected news. Note that the gaps have essentially been neatly filled already - may be helpful...daily chart.




Agree with the sentiment Mr Jeff ...  Cap raising puts another $30 mil at the Co's disposal and the Debt Funding gives them another $100 mil if and when required to get the project up and running  ......

Not sure about the last candlestick on your chart though .... Todays low was 7.1 cents. Big Charts seems to have it down as low as 6.6   .....  6.6 does look like the most likely short term support though, and a test of that would not surprise ...... a little short term pain before some longer term gain is my guess.


----------



## hangseng

*Delivery of Ross Application: NRC Meeting 4/1/2011*

Happy New Year ASF members and PEN holders

Not a bad start to the new year for PEN. Been a long wait but it is almost upon us now.

File attached but it is available on the NRC ADAMS website: http://wba.nrc.gov:8080/ves/
Go to 
"Simple Search"
then type in
"strata energy"
then
Do a "sort by date"

This will come up on top of the list as a pdf document...

In part it reads:

*MEETING NOTICE
December 22, 2010
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Headquarters

"Meeting with Strata Energy, Inc., Re: Delivery of Ross Application"
Tuesday, January 4, 2011, 9:00 am

"Strata Energy, Inc., requested this meeting to deliver its application for materials license to construct and operate the Ross In Situ Recovery Project in Crook County, Wyoming."*


----------



## barney

*Re: Delivery of Ross Application: NRC Meeting 4/1/2011*



hangseng said:


> Happy New Year ASF members and PEN holders
> 
> Not a bad start to the new year for PEN.





That is starting to look like an understatement HS !! 

Can't fault the management of this Company. They just keep delivering on time .... SP up another 14% today on the back of the Permit application. 

Wonder what the SP might do on the day the Permits are actually approved


----------



## indeck

oh wow, i thought it was the approval today not the submission :hide:  When is the answer expected?


----------



## Miner

*Re: Delivery of Ross Application: NRC Meeting 4/1/2011*



hangseng said:


> Happy New Year ASF members and PEN holders
> 
> Not a bad start to the new year for PEN. Been a long wait but it is almost upon us now.
> 
> File attached but it is available on the NRC ADAMS website: http://wba.nrc.gov:8080/ves/
> Go to
> "Simple Search"
> then type in
> "strata energy"
> then
> Do a "sort by date"
> 
> This will come up on top of the list as a pdf document...
> 
> In part it reads:
> 
> *MEETING NOTICE
> December 22, 2010
> U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Headquarters
> 
> "Meeting with Strata Energy, Inc., Re: Delivery of Ross Application"
> Tuesday, January 4, 2011, 9:00 am
> 
> "Strata Energy, Inc., requested this meeting to deliver its application for materials license to construct and operate the Ross In Situ Recovery Project in Crook County, Wyoming."*




Hangseng

Greetings for a very HNY.
Your consistency and patience have paid off and probably just a begining.
I think you should ask for a margin on the profits the ASF readers are making from your excellent value addition postings.

Job well done and congratulations. 
(Joe - you should consider sending bottles of champagane to such quality postings)


----------



## hangseng

Cheers for the kind words Miner. However I believe you know why I do what I do.

I provide information in the hope that others will do the same and in the end we all learn and hopefully have a win.

Not much I don't know about PEN, the uranium industry generally and Wyoming along with PEN's peers. However a lot I learnt from others as well as what I found myself.

As for champers...Mate if Joe was ever to consider such a thing I would prefer he donate to a charity or other worthwhile cause as he saw fit. I don't do what I do for reward, my reward will eventually be the profits I make with PEN, having others here share in PENs fortunes and having the ability to continue to help the destitute Indonesians I have come to love so much. I will be rewarded personally from PEN but I will get a bigger reward seeing the smiles on the faces of those I help.

Yes this is just the beginning with PEN, so much more to come.

Hopefully there will also be many more PEN's...


----------



## thestevo888

hangseng said:


> Cheers for the kind words Miner. However I believe you know why I do what I do.
> 
> Yes this is just the beginning with PEN, so much more to come.
> 
> Hopefully there will also be many more PEN's...




So HS are there other stocks you follow as keenly and believe in as avidly as PEN? I got into this one after reading about it on this forum, firstly, and then DMOR - must say I'm pretty happy with it so far! I love the depth and detail of your posts - very keen to know if you see such value in anything else out there at the moment. Thoughts only, I know the rule about recommending stocks to others...


----------



## mr. jeff

HI all,
I know most will be aware, but for completeness of the thread and a cheer to all holders,



> 7 January 2011
> Companies Announcement Office
> Via Electronic Lodgement
> PERMIT TO MINE GRANTED TO WYOMING URANIUM COMPANY
> The State of Wyoming, Department of Environmental Quality ("WDEQ"), has issued the
> commercial Permit to Mine (Permit Number 778) for the Uranerz Energy Corporation
> ("Uranerz") Nichols Ranch In-Situ Recovery ("ISR") Uranium Project located in Johnson and
> Campbell counties in the Central Powder River Basin of Wyoming, U.S.A.




Great news and we all know that the (broker advertised) work that PEN has put into this permitting application has been real and shows a diligent and committed management team. Great news.


----------



## Agent 99

Looks as if PEN's  going on a tear.  Options moving along nicely, too.  Glad I got in when I did, nearly a year ago now.  Still accumulating at current levels, given the values put on similar stocks but which don't have Gus Simpson's  management skills.  He and the top brass are heavily invested, too.  When you think about it, it's a no-brainer: China WILL be constructing 200 nuclear facilities going forward; United States keen to go nuclear as evidenced by issuing mining permits where appropriate and as a consequence of global warming/higher efficiency/higher energy prices; uranium stockpiles of former Russian nuclear weapons diminishing.

Further announcements await. IMHO, expect to see prices closer to 50c by year's end, if not sooner.

Nulear energy is the way of the future, whether people like it or not.:


----------



## hangseng

Agent 99 said:


> Further announcements await. IMHO, *expect to see prices closer to 50c by year's end, if not soone*r.




Interesting Agent99 and welcome to PEN on ASF. Yes there is a lot of outstanding announcments to come out now and soon.

However, what do you base that figure on if I may ask?


----------



## hangseng

*Permitting Status _ PEN*

This is now the status of PEN's permitting process. All required permits have now been submitted. It is likely an early permit will be provided to PEN for the DWDW and also early non-process related construction activities.

Te estimated timelines are mine base on the above and PEN's own timeline for production.


----------



## indeck

Definately pleased with PEN, really it's acting much more like a blue chip.  Steadily making modest gains week after week.


----------



## ironchef

Wow, PEN is steadily going strong again! Glad I didn't bail on them. I've been holding for 5+ years now hahahaha... Completely forgot about 'em (check the first page of this thread )

Hangseng, you seem to be up to date, can you save me the trouble and spell out what the confirmed deposit volumes are in the mine they've gotten permits for? I've just noticed the close price and am stuck at work 'til late with no time to do the research myself.. You might have the figures on hand.


----------



## hangseng

ironchef said:


> Wow, PEN is steadily going strong again! Glad I didn't bail on them. I've been holding for 5+ years now hahahaha... Completely forgot about 'em (check the first page of this thread )
> 
> Hangseng, you seem to be up to date, can you save me the trouble and spell out what the confirmed deposit volumes are in the mine they've gotten permits for? I've just noticed the close price and am stuck at work 'til late with no time to do the research myself.. You might have the figures on hand.




They don't have permits, all the required permits have now submitted.

PEN currently has at Lance 25M/lbs Jorc resource and an imminent upgrade to this is about to come once the metallurgical testing has been completed. Anyones guess what the result will be but I have spoken to the company and "all holes are mineralised".

You should also ready the two latest analyst reports from BGF Equities and hartleys

http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--toojahriez.pdf

The BGF report was sent to share holders email this morning.


----------



## ironchef

hangseng said:


> They don't have permits, all the required permits have now submitted.
> 
> PEN currently has at Lance 25M/lbs Jorc resource and an imminent upgrade to this is about to come once the metallurgical testing has been completed. Anyones guess what the result will be but I have spoken to the company and "all holes are mineralised".
> 
> You should also ready the two latest analyst reports from BGF Equities and hartleys
> 
> http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--toojahriez.pdf
> 
> The BGF report was sent to share holders email this morning.




Thanks for the info!


----------



## hangseng

So much more to come and not far away now is what I have long waited for.

*Entry to the ASX300*

At this level the game will change on PEN forever with large and small fund managers alike permitted to enter PEN in a bigger way by enabling them by charter to take larger % positions.

As a spec stock not in the ASX300 most will only permit up to a maximum of 5% of a portfolios holding.

With PEN now so close to achieving the permit to mine and Hartleys indicating the very real possibility of PEN "aquisitions", this will be great to watch. Even better watching my SMSF grow at a rapid rate now.

So many said it would never happen...and now here we are about to go into the .05 increments and most likely to remain there. 

Where are all the detractors now?


----------



## toocool

loving those .05 increments !!

This was a break out trade for me im in at .075 so im continuing to hold as its comming along nice.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> So much more to come and not far away now is what I have long waited for.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Where are all the detractors now?




De tractors are in de paddock Hang Seng :  (sorry couldn't resist   )

Actually the way this is performing, I reckon you may need a couple of tractors to help load all your cash!!


----------



## hangseng

LOL Barney, it is a rather large payload at the moment :$$$$$$$$

But my time to sell is nowhere near yet. 

With PEN now indicating aquisitions (via the latest Hartley report and as hinted by PEN in presentations over the last few months), permitting well underway, Karoo approved and commenced, DFS and jorc upgrade imminent, construction and production not far away why anyone would consider selling is quite frankly beyond comprehension. But each to their own, but I like massive profits far better than a few $$. So far I am doing just that.

A little look at a weekly 5 year chart with my favourite indicators for you all MMA's, Volume and Price. Keeping it simple works for me. I have also included both Fibonacci retracements and Fib Extensions. You will see the next potential level of resistance (target) is around 14.5-15c.


The MMA's are only just commencing;
Notice the difference in the rise to 11 from the 2007 indicators. 2007 displayed trading and uncertainty, the current rise is definite and strong with little in the way of retraces;
The current candle is about as bullish as it gets. Strong price and volume increase completely shadowing the last weeks candle;
Fibonacci extension has now shifted to indicate 14.5-15c as the next target (ASX300 entry level)
20c is now looking a very real possibility short term IMO, based on the news flow to come over the next few months.
Note: Fib Extensions are used as possible sell targets by traders. Expect a lot of pressure at that level initially and even a settling back to around 11.5/12.0 before the next move up.

Just my afternoon doodling over a little celebration brew...One very happy Hangseng today 

My SMSF portfolio is now looking like something a fund manager would place prominently in a trophy cabinet in the boardroom for all clients to see  Early and very comfortable retirement is now assured.

Send the LARGE paddock tractors around about 1-2years time Barney...A couple of 9630 4WD John Deeres in tandem should about do it.


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> So much more to come and not far away now is what I have long waited for.
> 
> *Entry to the ASX300*
> 
> At this level the game will change on PEN forever with large and small fund managers alike permitted to enter PEN in a bigger way by enabling them by charter to take larger % positions.
> 
> As a spec stock not in the ASX300 most will only permit up to a maximum of 5% of a portfolios holding.
> 
> With PEN now so close to achieving the permit to mine and Hartleys indicating the very real possibility of PEN "aquisitions", this will be great to watch. Even better watching my SMSF grow at a rapid rate now.
> 
> So many said it would never happen...and now here we are about to go into the .05 increments and most likely to remain there.
> 
> Where are all the detractors now?




Champ HS 

Hats off to you, your research, persistence and consistence conviction. 

You have put your reputation on the line and emerged as victorious legend escalated  your reputation  level many folds with PEN outcome.

My sincerely thanks to your persistence which made me to re-enter at 6 cents after selling it at 4 cents.

It would have been nice to hold at the original purchase price of less than 2 cents but today even at 6 cents my holding has appreciated by more than enough my rest of  portfolio has performed.

Congratulations and thanks for sharing your research which has definitely benefitted me personally a lot. 

As an  off the topic may I  suggest if you please check ZYL and comment on ZYL thread.

Cheers


----------



## TabJockey

I have looked at PEN really hard for the last few days, Barclays had a DCF of 16c not accounting for risk. Stocks like this one tend to overshoot their price targets and then drop. If the bullish brokerage report gave a target of 10c and we are currently at 11c, what significant fundamental factors can you see to support a significantly higher SP?

I can definately see PEN running to 18-20c in 3-6months but I think that will be a bull run on Uranium stocks and the market in general. This is a rally supported by sentiment, but what about earnings potential?


----------



## kgee

hangseng said:


> Early and very comfortable retirement is now assured.




Congrats hangseng!
Hope you had a nice payday as well  Miner


----------



## hangseng

Thanks Miner and Kgee

It has been a long road coming back to the old highs but the feeling is overwhelming one of confirmation of expectation, rather than exhuberance.

So much more to look forward to, not only this week and the next month both of which offer majors news flow. But the coming year and beyond.


Tabjockey, I respectfully suggest if you have "_looked at PEN really hard for the last few days"_ and _"Barclays had a DCF of 16c not accounting for risk" _(if in fact they did) and you are still questioning earning potential and _"what significant fundamental factors can you see to support a significantly higher SP"_. 

Then you may need to do a little more looking.

It is all there to see, but will take a little longer than a few days to find it all. I have spent the last 4 years researching what is about to happen, along with a few other rather clever people. We all now have large holdings in PEN and are very comfortable to continue holding for _"a significantly higher SP"_, one of them well into the Top 20 ...or at least was until this month.

ps. I will have a look at ZYL miner, just give me a few days as I am flat out over here at the moment. We have won a load of project work, so another great start to the year.


----------



## barney

TabJockey said:


> what significant fundamental factors can you see to support a significantly higher SP?
> 
> This is a rally supported by sentiment, but what about earnings potential?





Hi TJ,  
I agree Specs do tend to over shoot on sentiment ..... I'm no fundamentalist by a long shot, but if we throw a few numbers in the air .... (All forward looking of course until production .... but production is very close now, assuming things go to plan)

1) NPAT of $14 million in 2013
2) Sector PE ratio, lets say conservatively 20 (ERA is about 45  )

PEN market cap = say $280 million ..... still undervalued approx 30% 

3) NPAT of $36 million in 2014 would give a market cap of $720 million  ....  a lot of headroom for the SP to increase another 200%

And 2013-2014 is only the beginning ..... If the POU continues to rise, by 2017-2018 and onward, it is feasible for PEN to have a market cap similar to PDN (maybe more  )

My numbers are obviously very simplistic, and there is a bit of water to go under the bridge, but the forward fundamentals marry up pretty well with the market sentiment at the moment 

ps Throw in a PE of 25-30 and the numbers could get almost scary in a few years from now  ..... I'll throw to any real fundamentalists now


----------



## hangseng

Exactly barney and the conservative P/E used by Hartleys for 2014 is only 6.8, way below peers.

Also factor in aspects such as PEN having a much larger resource than neighbour Uranerz and PEN is trading at a 50% discount p/lb to URZ.

Then we have this from Hartleys latest after PEn themselves hinted at "aquisitions"

*Big Picture*
_"Peninsula has proven to be commercially and operationally competent and we believe that this a key factor for the attraction of the cornerstone investment by Pala. We interpret that this signals potential for acquisitive activity, which could result in a significant step up in scale for PEN. Planned production of up to 4.5mlb per annum by 2017 from its existing portfolio could be just the start of a much larger production company,* in our opinion*."_

_*"In our opinion"*_....lol yeah right 


PEN also has a Capex payback period of only 1.3 years and will have a cash surplus of $67.1M based only on 1.5M/lb p/an and the current resource estimate. No consideration of where PEN will/may be in 1 years time, of which is also expected to result in a rather large Jorc resource upgrade at Lance and intial Jorc results from Karoo.

I don't see PEN using that to pay dividends, I do see them having access to massive amounts of cash. Given some of it will be used to further develop Karoo and Lance, both of which are expected to expand greatly. IMO Hartleys "opinion" above is a very well informed and educated estimate and assumption of what is about to occur.

PEN remains completely debt free currently and has $32M cash and access to over $150M additional cash now. We are still yet to see what the result of the Request For Product (RFP) response to the US Utilities by PEN brings. However it is almost inevitable that it would include some form of take off funding arrangement.

Fundamentally the drivers fior a much higher sp stand out like a bull elephant charging...and we have only scratched the surface here.

As aluded to by Hartleys, the lions that may be looking to eat PEN better get out of the way...They are on the menu.


----------



## grenat

Hi Hangseng
this is the first time I have ever posted on a forum but have been lurking for several years.
I would like to thank you for all the information that you have researched and generously
shared.
I bought in 2009 at .052 and watched my shares go down to .029 at one stage. I still held on believing in the company thanks to your continuing posts. They kept me confident I had made the right descision and the company was well managed and on track.
I now believe 2011 is going to be an amazing ride for all Pen holders.


----------



## hangseng

Thanks grenat, enjoy the ride mate this has just begun.

Here is a thought for you to ponder. ARMZ bought the Uranium One assets in Wyoming for about what PEN has in cash right now. Uranium One is close to production readiness.

If the Russsians don't get their way in the US for an export license, this will most likely be onsold again. The Russians won't be happy unless they get an export license.

Now go back to the Hartleys comment of _"acquisitive activity"_

Watch this closely IMO, very closely.


----------



## mattryanshares

Lance drilling results out, can't add link check asx website!


----------



## hangseng

Signifcant announcement on three major aspects.

1. Contuinuation of "Multiple stacked rollfronts" - This I have long stated is a major success factor of Lance (PEN) that is required to provide for a potentially very large resource. This factor has not only continued but is consistent throughout the project.

2. It will add significantly to the "Current jorc resource" - this will not only display my long held belief that Lance could potententially go over 100M/lbs (more like 150), it will provide for for much improved metrics in the DFS. 

3. The fact they have indicated "as recommended by our funding advisor" for the metallurgical testing for vanadium. This is indicating clearly they are going to source alternate funding (as in bankers etc) and not use the $100M available from PALA or the other forgotten $50M they have access to. Also the fact they are now consistently seeking to expand on the vanadium credits. This, if proven as expected, will lower the Opex significantly and they are already among the 3 lowest Opex indicated of all the uranium players.

They have crammed this announcement displaying so much that is going on behind the scenes. We can look forward to some rather special information flow and soon IMO. The reporting from PEN has been first class, even a benchmark for other developing companies. Under promise and over deliver by consistently keeping shareholders informed.

So many do the opposite unfortunately.

Happy Birthday to me, the perfect present for a PEN holder


----------



## hangseng

The massive single 6M buy taking down the wall at 11c with less than a minute to close, $660,000 in one hit was no small retail trader. 

That was definitely a significant positive signal of what is to come and along with that very significant announcement, the perfect gift for me today. Very few shares traded at the lower 10.5, trading most of the day at 11c and the wall of buyers just kept building.

None of this is coming as a surprise to me and IMO PEN is about to make so many eat their words...and soon. PEN is rapidly de-risking now.

PEN now sitting at an undiluted market capitalisation of just under $220M. Within striking distance of inclusion in the ASX300, the level that will permit large fund managers to take much larger positions. So today may simply be one (or more) getting set for the invetible.


----------



## grenat

Happy Birthday Hangseng (what a good day for an announcement) and thank you for more information, as you put it to ponder on, which I certainly am doing.


----------



## mattryanshares

I see 1m shares bought
 at 3.59 through commsec but don't see 6m???



hangseng said:


> The massive single 6M buy taking down the wall at 11c with less than a minute to close, $660,000 in one hit was no small retail trader.
> 
> That was definitely a significant positive signal of what is to come and along with that very significant announcement, the perfect gift for me today. Very few shares traded at the lower 10.5, trading most of the day at 11c and the wall of buyers just kept building.
> 
> None of this is coming as a surprise to me and IMO PEN is about to make so many eat their words...and soon. PEN is rapidly de-risking now.
> 
> PEN now sitting at an undiluted market capitalisation of just under $220M. Within striking distance of inclusion in the ASX300, the level that will permit large fund managers to take much larger positions. So today may simply be one (or more) getting set for the invetible.


----------



## barney

mattryanshares said:


> I see 1m shares bought
> at 3.59 through commsec but don't see 6m???




Hi Mat,

In fact in the 30 seconds from 3.59 and 27 seconds pm   till 3.59 and 57 seconds pm there were 7,092,685 shares purchased.

As HangSeng pointed out ... not exactly small change .... looking forward to the open tomorrow


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> The massive single 6M buy taking down the wall at 11c with less than a minute to close, $660,000 in one hit was no small retail trader.
> 
> That was definitely a significant positive signal of what is to come and along with that very significant announcement, the perfect gift for me today. Very few shares traded at the lower 10.5, trading most of the day at 11c and the wall of buyers just kept building.
> 
> None of this is coming as a surprise to me and IMO PEN is about to make so many eat their words...and soon. PEN is rapidly de-risking now.
> 
> PEN now sitting at an undiluted market capitalisation of just under $220M. Within striking distance of inclusion in the ASX300, the level that will permit large fund managers to take much larger positions. So today may simply be one (or more) getting set for the invetible.




Happy Birth Day HS and Congratulations

May be your stars are shining and with lunar position (where is Trader Paul to undertake his analysis on HS birth day and PEN connection) probably the astrological connection working for you.

Best of luck and enjoy PEN gift


----------



## mattryanshares

barney said:


> Hi Mat,
> 
> In fact in the 30 seconds from 3.59 and 27 seconds pm   till 3.59 and 57 seconds pm there were 7,092,685 shares purchased.
> 
> As HangSeng pointed out ... not exactly small change .... looking forward to the open tomorrow




Yeah but he said there was a 1 off 6m purchase i could only find a 1 off 1m purchase, there has been another this morning.

Also new announcement.

NRC ISSUES DRAFT LICENSE FOR ANOTHER WYOMING URANIUM
PROJECT
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), has issued a draft Source and Byproduct
Materials License Number SUA-1598 to UR-Energy Inc. (URE) for its Lost Creek in-situ
recovery project located in Sweetwater County, Wyoming, USA.
URE have been granted a brief amount of time to review the Draft License and supply
suggested changes to the NRC prior to the document becoming final. The issuance of the
final License will conclude the NRC’s review and licensing process.
This development is another example of the improved permitting environment that is
supporting the progress being made by emerging uranium producers in the U.S.
Peninsula lodged its applications for a Combined Source and 11e.(2) Byproduct Material
License with the NRC on the 31st December 2010.


----------



## hangseng

Thanks Miner

A few games being played with PEN atm however that buy of 7M at 11 was telling yesterday.

Also not surprising that a few would be exiting at this level, especially anyone who held from the 10/11 highs of 2007. They may be wanting to take the little profit and move on, of which is understandable.

Just a shame they wait so long and then leave the party before the band starts playing and the real crowd joins in 

I have seen this so many times, and even done the same myself and I never let myself forget it. I won't be leaving this party until well and truly after the rage begins.

Once again PEN delivers on outstanding news, and to do so yesterday was perfect for me. I have a rager of a birthday, dinner a cup of tea and an early night lol. Not even my usual 2 guiness on my birthday......one word "old"

Have a great day all.


----------



## initforthemoney

So you still think pen has a lot of potential at this level? Personally I just bought into them, so I am hoping that I have made the right choice.


----------



## hangseng

Pick where PEN is now...

This is from a Zn and Au mine perspective but it fits almost any mining junior developing to producer.

From the article I particularly liked this:

*"Many stocks lose value in the period between when resources are known and feasibility studies are issued and acted upon, losing value mainly due to time, impatience, and money; cash required for preliminary economic and feasibility programs, at the time of zero cash flow and little or no substantive news. 

However, these quality companies are making progress behind the scenes. They are issuing technical reports, upgrading resources and piecing together various project development studies. The time is approaching for patient and shrewd investors to find exceptional value."*


*Life Cycle of a Mining Share *

*"Actual case examples."*_
"In general, there's three ways to profit based on the above cycles; Point 1 - find a lucky junior exploration company that will make a discovery, Point 2 - buy undervalued shares of stock with established resources for cheap and ride it to production, Point 3 - pinpoint a troubled junior producer at the moment of an operational turnaround. The second approach is without doubt safer than the first and has more upside than the third approach given the project is economically viable and management is in place and willing to capitalize on the known potential.


Using the above model to gauge the positioning of a prospect is useful. Many stocks lose value in the period between when resources are known and feasibility studies are issued and acted upon, losing value mainly due to time, impatience, and money; cash required for preliminary economic and feasibility programs, at the time of zero cash flow and little or no substantive news. However, these quality companies are making progress behind the scenes. They are issuing technical reports, upgrading resources and piecing together various project development studies. The time is approaching for patient and shrewd investors to find exceptional value. Which brings us to our case study and its positioning in relation to the above model; Abcourt Mines Inc. (TSX Venture Exchange: ABI chart news) has affirmed to Madison Avenue Research Group its commitment to reopen their 100% owned Abcourt-Barvue Zinc-Silver mine and more."_

source: http://madisonaveresearch.com/2008zincmarkets.htm


----------



## hangseng

initforthemoney said:


> *So you still think pen has a lot of potential at this level?* Personally I just bought into them, so I am hoping that I have made the right choice.






Yes I do.

The reason I have not sold one share with an average buy of less than 4c and continued to buy all the way up to 9.4. Why would I when this has just commenced and has the potential to go at least 4 times higher and according to broker research up to 7 or 8 times higher on the back of Karoo and lance expansion.

PEN will shortly be eligible for entry into the ASX300. This permits large funds to by more shares, and I believe that is already starting to happen.

This is by no means a recommendation, it is my personal view now based on over 3 years researching PEN, PEN's peers, the uranium industry, supply/demand aspects, the future of uranium and the regulatory regime of countries throughout the world. In particular that of Wyoming, the most uranium/mining friendly place you could come across.

I have been told for the last 3 years until recently that I was wrong.

Look at the PEN sp now and where it was over the last 2 years, in particular the last 6-12 months. If I am wrong then a lot of others are joining me.

That said, PEN isn't completely de-risked until they have the permits to mine in hand. This now looks like a given and we will know in the not too distant future. However it is the last peg to place.

PEN has now issued all required permit applications. Now we wait.


----------



## hangseng

Actually, make that 11c I just bought another 150,000 at 15:59:56


----------



## hangseng

From the *public domain *of the NRC ADAMS website:

*Ross ISR Project Application for a Permit to Mine and the receipt confirming the application.*

More to follow as it comes to hand as I and my fellow shareholder friend (Top 20 holder) follow the application process.

For any who wish to do so themselves: http://wba.nrc.gov:8080/ves/


----------



## Purd2

Thanks HS.


----------



## Megacents

Aquisitions this is the new game that will get PEN investors excited. 

Just reviewing the drill permit for Karoo Basin, did they start drilling to mark Hangseng's birthday??

Uranium spot price now about $70, now I wonder how good the DFS and BFS figures will be. Has PEN locked in a possible utility contract or are they being smart and holding out??

In my mind the next 15 months will be worth noting and perhaps retelling the story when I am retired


----------



## hangseng

Megacents said:


> Aquisitions this is the new game that will get PEN investors excited.
> 
> Just reviewing the drill permit for Karoo Basin, did they start drilling to mark Hangseng's birthday??
> 
> Uranium spot price now about $70, now I wonder how good the DFS and BFS figures will be. Has PEN locked in a possible utility contract or are they being smart and holding out??
> 
> In my mind the next 15 months will be worth noting and perhaps retelling the story when I am retired




LOL...PEN gave me a double gift yesterday. That announcement yesterday was outstanding and just needed a little diseminating to see what may occur.

Read this (link) as well and you will see why PEN is pursuing the Vanadium credits so vigourously. This will account for a much improved BFS by way of reduced Opex, of which is already outstandingly low and economical based on the earlier PFS.

I feel we are about to get some rather special information from PEN and technical in nature. By way of the announcement of an (possibly significant) upgrade in Jorc and results of the metallurgical testing for Vanadium in the new lease zone.

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/8396

Courtesy of Purd2, another thinker...


----------



## grunta

hangseng said:


> LOL...PEN gave me a double gift yesterday. That announcement yesterday was outstanding and just needed a little diseminating to see what may occur.
> 
> Read this (link) as well and you will see why PEN is pursuing the Vanadium credits so vigourously. This will account for a much improved BFS by way of reduced Opex, of which is already outstandingly low and economical based on the earlier PFS.
> 
> I feel we are about to get some rather special information from PEN and technical in nature. By way of the announcement of an (possibly significant) upgrade in Jorc and results of the metallurgical testing for Vanadium in the new lease zone.
> 
> http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/8396
> 
> Courtesy of Purd2, another thinker...




HS and Purd2, what a great read. I wait with bated breath for the core results for PEN'S vanadium. Should add to the already profitable resource going forward. 

One sure can see the light shinning bright at the end of the PEN tunnel.

Regards Motty


----------



## Purd2

Another thing I am excited about is a statement Gus made to my friend and I at the Canary event in Melbourne. When we mentioned Uranium1 and Uranerz he referred to them as "real estate jockeys". I thought nothing of it at the time BUT NOW, PEN is issuing announcements themselves referring to the licensing/permitting of these companies nearby. 
This to me begs some questions
1. Will the US authorities grant an export licence to ARMZ for Chritensen Ranch?
2. If not...will ARMZ pull out of that arrangement with U1?
3. Is PEN interested in these two newly permitted sites, a question I raise as the word "acquisitions" is being constantly bandied about by the company and the likes of Hartleys. I remember Gus' comment in Melbourne. He must have been aware from early days that these areas could be bought.


----------



## Megacents

Purd2 said:


> Another thing I am excited about is a statement Gus made to my friend and I at the Canary event in Melbourne. When we mentioned Uranium1 and Uranerz he referred to them as "real estate jockeys". I thought nothing of it at the time BUT NOW, PEN is issuing announcements themselves referring to the licensing/permitting of these companies nearby.
> This to me begs some questions
> 1. Will the US authorities grant an export licence to ARMZ for Chritensen Ranch?
> 2. If not...will ARMZ pull out of that arrangement with U1?
> 3. Is PEN interested in these two newly permitted sites, a question I raise as the word "acquisitions" is being constantly bandied about by the company and the likes of Hartleys. I remember Gus' comment in Melbourne. He must have been aware from early days that these areas could be bought.




I must say yes and yes and yes.

Why else would they release boring info   It is a way to get some thinking beyond the SP and into the real future. There is a good posibility that PEN may become a tier 2 producer of uranium.

Export licence, why would they when they are in such a deficit when it comes to home grown uranium.

I am only guessing and trying to read between the lines, good things are coming besides the rising SP.

Purd2 Thanks for sharing that term "real estate jockeys"


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/8396
> 
> Courtesy of Purd2, another thinker...








Megacents said:


> Purd2 Thanks for sharing that term "real estate jockeys"





Ditto ..... Thanks Purd  ........

Can't help but be impressed with the forward planning that the PEN boyz have both calculated and are implementing  ........Management of many other Companies could take a leaf out of their book ....... 

Actually, they should borrow the whole book !!


----------



## hangseng

Happy Australia Day ASF people...

Well PEN gave me an outstanding birthday present and now courtesy of my research colleague of whom I mentioned previously Yuro, I receive this gem!

*"License Condition for Toll Milling of Uranium Water Treatment Resins"*

Page 3...

_"In addition to addressing NRC requirements for licensing new ISR project sites, Strata is requesting a license condition allowing it to process uranium-loaded ion exchange (IX) resins from water treatment operations such as drinking water, mine de-watering, and other similar operations"_

This is outstanding news in itself. If Strata/PEN are awarded this additional license then the output from Lance will grow significantly. This to date hasn't been included in the PFS and I am not sure if it is included in the imminent BFS. What I do know is if this license is granted then PEN's profitability will rocket.

This provides for two significant potential outcomes:

1. Lower Opex - of which is already noted as close to the lowest

2. Increased Net profit - enabling rapid advancement of Lance and/or Karoo and/or possibly earlier payback of any funding.

I have mentioned this many times both here and elsewhere that this could potentially  occur (although I thought earlier) and the positive ramifications of tolling. Not to mention what it could do for the share price.

Put plainly...*This would be output over and above the existing resource!*

Yuro, I could kiss you publicly today mate!

See the attached...*Go to Page 3*

ps. Welcome Motty


----------



## svengali

It is now obvious that the proposed mill is going to be in place by the first quarter of 2012 at the latest, possibly it may be ready by late 2011, people can rabbit on all they like, this a given

It begs the question then, how quickly can this mill be upgraded from 1.5 million lbs to 3 million. Could this be done in say 18 months, we have the funds, actual or available

I say this because the thoughts going around about "toll milling" may then become more pertinent, but of more interest may be this gives PEN an ability to handle product from the Uranium One sites, I'm not conversant with the geography of these mutual sites but think about the scenario of these companies areas combining in some form,(acquisition, patnership, tolling etc.), it may give rise to an "uber" operation and as PEN are holding the vast majority of the "area" that is a  a rapidly expanding resource it can only be beneficial for us

I will put on record that I am a personal friend of the poster Purd who has been across PEN with the other original flag bearer Hangseng for many years, their submissions and chats have earned me a rapidly rising share portfolio, and may I say it is a pleasure to be on a civilised discussion area that does not degenerate into a petty, squabling, incestuous site like some others who are outliving their usefulness

One thing is for certain and that is we are in for an interesting and probably hugely profitable 18 months, remember this, (especially the nae sayers), from 25 JAN 2010 to 25 JAN 2011 the ASX rose by .035% and PEN rose by 115%..................Nuff said


----------



## Purd2

*Uranium One’s exports from U.S. not allowed*

Uranium One and ARMZ lack the license to export nuclear fuel.

According to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Uranium One will not be permitted to export uranium from deposits within the United States after the company comes under the control of Atomredmetzoloto. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission explained that both Uranium One and Atomredmetzoloto do not have the licenses required to ship uranium mined in America outside of the U.S. At the same time, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved Atomredmetzoloto’s plans to increase its stake in Uranium One from roughly 23 percent to over 50 percent. 

The swap transaction presents definite ramifications for Uranium One’s license to carry on production activities at the Irigaray and Christensen Ranch uranium leaching facility in Wyoming. The deal with the Russian nuclear company also affects the grant of license the Nuclear Regulatory Commission made on September 30 to allow Uranium One to initiate its More Ranch in situ leach recovery project in Campbell County, Wyoming. Among other licenses affected is a materials license of Uranium One that provides the authorization to use tritium sealed sources for well logging. Uranium One’s two other recovery license applications for the Jab and Antelope and the Ludeman projects are under review of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Uranium One operates in the United States by way of subsidiary companies, Uranium One USA and Uranium One Americas. 

In October of 2010, several members of the U.S. House of Representatives voiced their opposition to Uranium One’s deal with Atomredmetzoloto. Of particular concern was Russia’s work with Iran in building the nuclear power facility at Busher. The congressmen expressed fear that if the deal was concluded, American uranium could either directly or indirectly contribute to the advancement of the Iranian nuclear program. With the decision of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to allow the asset swap to go forward there is now nothing standing in the way of the transaction.  

http://russianamericanbusiness.org/...Uranium-One%92s-exports-from-U.S.-not-allowed


----------



## hangseng

Nice find Purd.

ARMZ won't like this one bit and I would lay money on it they will offload the Uranium One ISR asset in Wyoming.

_"Julian Steyn, a partner at Energy Resources International Inc., a consulting firm in Washington, said Uranium One’s assets in Kazakhstan made the company attractive. The U.S. produces about 3 percent of the world’s uranium. 

“*They didn’t buy it because of the U.S*.,” Steyn said. “Kazakhstan is the big gorilla. It wasn’t a cunning, scheming Russian thing."_

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...yoming-uranium-mine-lacks-export-license.html


I wonder who will "aquire" the The Irigaray/Christensen Ranch mine in north eastern Wyoming? Right next door to Lance in the uranium rich Powder River Basin.

PEN have mentioned "aquisitions", now Hartleys have mentioned the possibly of "aquisitions".

PEN has the money to do so, but will they?


----------



## Pidg

Hi Hangseng

Pidg here and thought that I would drop a short line to let you know that all the info that I have accumulated is most appreciated from you and the others who have and still do first -class research.
You are aware of my 
particular forte in Sydney and happy for you to give my direct email out to anyone who may want any free background knowledge as a miniscule return on the information that has been posted- it is not a tout for business just the only way I have of some form of personal recompense.
cheers P


----------



## hangseng

Thanks Pidg, great to see you here on ASF. We have some real gem posters here 

No problem mate I will do and have already.

Enjoy the ride mate, it is just beginning. Watch closely the developments of ARMZ and the Uranium One assets in Wyoming. I have a feeling they will be on the real estate market shortly.

I am hoping that our very own PEN is going to put their hands up for them, and PEN has the cash to pay for it should they go that way. I am hoping that is what PEN and Hartley meant when they spoke of "aquisitions". Myself and a couple of others here are watching this aspect very very closely.


----------



## Megacents

*Re: Uranium One’s exports from U.S. not allowed*



Purd2 said:


> Uranium One and ARMZ lack the license to export nuclear fuel.
> 
> According to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Uranium One will not be permitted to export uranium from deposits within the United States after the company comes under the control of Atomredmetzoloto.
> 
> The swap transaction presents definite ramifications for Uranium One’s license to carry on production activities at the Irigaray and Christensen Ranch uranium leaching facility in Wyoming.  http://russianamericanbusiness.org/...Uranium-One%92s-exports-from-U.S.-not-allowed




Thanks again Purd2, this is what I have been trying to find. To me this is the icing on the cake and may well be the reason that PEN is producing before their Lance operations.

Is it possible that a bit of read between the lines maybe in the 4th Quarter report 2010?

Will this be the land/licence that PEN uses with the Holden man's actions?

Just on the water usage, this will be a real bonus for PEN and maybe a view of future operations. In this I mean the way they are performing as a management team anything is possible re reduction in Capex and Opex. PEN's management are not thinking or acting within a square.

Thanks all for the quality posts and sharing.


----------



## Purd2

I can't answer your questions Megacents but having chatted with Gus back in June/July @ the Canary event in Melbourne with my mate svengali, I asked him..."What is the ace up your sleeve Gus?" He reacted by turning away from me and turning back rather quickly and said "THE STAFF WE HAVE IN WYOMING"
 Now I think he believes that and it is probably true...but I still think that he had future plans in his mind at that time he would no way share with us, that are now coming to fruition. I asked him that question because he exuded such confidence and spoke with such passion. I will never forget that hour and a quarter!


----------



## Megacents

That is fine Purd2 as I was not really expecting an answer to my thoughts. I appreciate your thoughts and comments on the presentation etc.

I maybe wrong, but just keep thinking there is more to come besides the highlighted milestones eg, DFS, BFS, Possible utlility offtake, mine permit etc.

I am happy to be holding and I am in no hurry to sell.


----------



## Purd2

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/8433

A good read.

Here is a snippet

_MA: Clearly, as the oil price has continued to appreciate people have started to look at alternative fuels. For a while the sexy ones were wind and solar, but there's very low power densities in those types of energy generation. Wind is intermittent. Obviously, solar is not a great resource to use in cold-climate countries like Canada or Russia. Natural gas is an important transitional fuel, but there's also uranium. 

To me, a seminal moment in the uranium market occurred about five years ago when James Lovelock, a leading environmentalist who used to be the head of Greenpeace, said that uranium has to be a major part of our response to global warming. Before that, uranium was seen as part of the problem, not part of the solution. Clearly, the nuclear waste issue hasn't gone away but we treat the stuff a lot more effectively than we used to. The waste problem relative to the millions of tons of coil that get belched out into the atmosphere is fairly minimal._


----------



## Megacents

Purd2 said:


> http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/8433




Then you have a read of this:

"As it is now, the uranium industry is having a hard time boosting production. There have been shortfalls from large mines, such as Energy Resources of Australia Ltd.'s (ASX:ERA) Ranger Mine and BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (NYSE:BHP; OTCPK:BHPLF) Olympic Dam Mine in Australia. Of course, Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO; NYSE:CCJ) had water problems related to reaching production at its proposed Cigar Lake uranium mine. Those are other problems."

Also include spot price aprox $70, PEN are really in the right time frame. ERA is suffering from water and reduce production (maybe similar to 2010).

"TER: What's your forecast for the price of uranium?

MA: The price could easily double over the next three or four years, and it could even go much higher. A number of these projects in places like Kazakhstan and Namibia don't even begin to make money until the price gets closer to $80 or $90 per pound."

Looks a like a good future for PEN holders. Also for those that wish to take profits over the long term.


----------



## Purd2

Mega, I was so keen to post that article that I did so before I had finished reading it. LOL


----------



## hangseng

This was always going to happen Purdy and I believe I have been consistent in that view now for over 4 years.

The uranium boom and bust left many, including so called analysts and experts, treating uranium like just another tech bubble. They didn't do enough research into the future world energy demands and the role that nuclear energy was about to play. In fact many saying uranium was now worthless and uranium stocks are to be avoided. I was told the latter by a well known Perth broker, that is now no longer a broker as his busness went belly up. Suffice to say I never took his, or any other so called experts advice. Nor did I take notice of the forum doomsayers stating the same.

PEN provided the perfect opportunity for anyone who cared to take the time to look.


ISR was always going to be a winner in Wyoming.
The Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal stating "Bring us your projects".
The USA being a low risk political environment.
Australia and elsewhere being a high risk political environment, not to mention the likes of the unthinking Bob Brown Greens followers. I see Bob even blames the Qld floods on Coal companies now due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Not only is that ridiculous, he and the greens are against nuclear energy. A source of energy now proven to be outstandinly green in comparison to coal. No rocket science there Bob...
Low Opex and Capex processing, the key to successful projects and companies.
China and India looking to dramatically increase the use of Nuclear Power.
No viable cost effective solution to the oh so obvious burgeoning future world energy demand.
PEN being unloved and hounded down by forum posters (they know not what they do, was my thoughts...), this was a major buy signal for me as they were all chasing momentum stocks based, some on little more than "rock chip samples". Most were going to have enormous Opex and Capex, if they ever got started...most haven't now.

*...and the biggest yet simplest to work out as you are all stating rightly here now...


[*]"SUPPLY and DEMAND" ...now the uranium price is rising...SURPRISE, SUPRISE, SUPRISE!!!*

We are now seeing the result of the latter and the hugely positive effect it will have on PEN's bottom line profit margin.

IMO we are witnessing something very special with PEN at Lance. How much better will PEN be when Karoo results are announced (and I know they are going really well in SA) and if they "aquire" certain leases in Wyoming.

I say Karoo is going well, as I rang PEN and they stated drilling is well under way indicating they are progressing rapidly. Knowing PEN they will get the results to market as quick as they can.

I am really enjoying this...

Congratulations "Contrarians" 

“Buy when there's blood in the streets” (Baron Rothschild in 1871).


----------



## tech/a

PEN from a technical view appears to have finished its run.
Strong selling volume on 13/1 and 20/1
Unless supply is exhausted (unlikely) there is a good chance PEN will have a healthy correction. 8.4c ish.


----------



## Megacents

Purd2 said:


> Mega, I was so keen to post that article that I did so before I had finished reading it. LOL




That was a good reason Purd2 as it had lots of useful/good info, plus the usual bit of chest beating   I re-read it a couple of times.

Thanks for the conformation of the drilling Hangseng, I knew it was moving along was not too sure if they started on the 24th. Good day for a BD 

What I like about the Karoo Basin drilling is that they are looking at the locations that was drilled in the past just to conform to todays standards for JORC. 

Does that last sentence sounds a bit like the Wyoming database gift?

What a 4th quarter report 2010 is going to be, full of exciting tidbits. It will be good to read!

Happy trading.


----------



## svengali

Tech/a

The larger volumes you noted on 13/1 and 20/1 and indeed all the big volume days since Christmas show at least a holding or more often a rapidly rising price on the day. From a shareholders point of view you'd have to regard this as a strength, you know it's not much fun when shares fall on big volume days !!

The fact is PEN's price is now going to be driven by announcements from Wyoming and the Karoo, potential takeovers, etc., and a rapidly diminishing time span until the commencement of a low cost production facility in Wyoming

If shareholders have to wait until we come under the spell of being in the ASX200, or the general shareholding fraternity and their stockbroking "advisors" wake up to the little gem that is PEN,................who cares.

NB/.....just the other day I read a Bloomberg report that found that investors who did not act on their "advisors" recommendations, made three times as much as those who took on board their advice

This tells me, with PEN, be careful who you listen to..............or don't listen to


----------



## TabJockey

The fact that so many posters in this thread seem to be very one-sidedly bullish actually scares me out of this stock. No doubt PEN has performed well over the last year but you can stop tooting your own trumpet now, there are many other companies that have tripled in market value this year and you don't see nearly as much back slapping as Hang Seng has been drumming up over the last month.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> PEN from a technical view appears to have finished its run.
> Strong selling volume on 13/1 and 20/1
> *Unless supply is exhausted (unlikely)* there is a good chance PEN will have a healthy correction. 8.4c ish.




I agree tech/a, "unlikely".

Love your work here tech/a but there are just so many aspects going against your thought. Technically I agree it looks as if a couple of indicators such as stochastic, may indicate that could occur, I believe it ignores what has been occurring at current levels. It also ignores the significant differences betwen now and the last run up in 2007.

The fundamentals facts surrounding PEN now simply can't be ignored. Facts that weren't in existence in 2007.

PEN is about to announce the final DFS results, another (and not the last) jorc update, outcome of the RFP responses, Karoo drilling results (expected to be significant and a game changer judging on known historical data) and the latest drilling and metallurgical results. These are all imminent announcements, that will easily nullify any low volume selling.

Top this with the almost inevitable granting of early construction activities and the very real possibility PEN is going to do an aquisition of another U players leases in Wyoming.

Yes this is fundamental vs T/A, however PEN's driver atm is fundamentals, not T/A. Also the willingness of buyers coming in to soak up the low sell volumes, and they are very low in comparison to the heavy buying up to 11.5 recently. On two occasions recently the chart indicator was only down due to a miniscule sell at closing auction, makes the chart look negative but hides the reality.

"Supply" won't and isn't dying up. IMO all we are seeing is an exiting of small day traders and as I have mentioned before and exit of a few of those that have held since the 2007 highs.

I think what we have just seen is the last of it before the next leg up, based on sound fundamental drivers. PEN is also bordering now on entry to the ASX300, permitting funds to buy larger % of PEN in portfolios.

This is one time I believe fundamentals will steam roll T/A and make a mess of the "rules" of T/A along the way.

Just my view...and we all know I have been wrong before. On this occasion though I don't believe I am and was confident enough to buy again recently.

And I haven't even mentioned funding, of which is being actively sought and an outcome expected within 6 months IMO, maybe even sooner.

I do concede, as I stated and expected, that there is strong resistance at 11.5. However I don't expect that will last long at all now. Looking at my "daily" chart with MMA's, PEN has bounced strongly of the 15day MA and didn't come close to touching the 20day MA. IMO the run ended Friday Jan 21st and it has had a very healthy consolidation since. .10 has now been tested 3 times and each time bounced back with strong buying, the last being yesterday. I believe this consolidation range is now over and fundamentally PEN is about to be driven higher to test 11.5 once again.

Looking at the "weekly" with MMA's it also clearly displays a weekly close within the high range of the previous weeks long candle wick and on the highest point of the week previous to that. Once again why I believe we have had the consolidation period and it is over, or very near over.

I am only joining in the T/A discussion as it interests me. PEN is an investment for me, one that I don't trade and merely hold LT and accumulate on dips. My recent purchase at .11 (only a small % of my holdings) is the first since 2006 that I bought on a daily high, and for good reason.

Now to set the kitchen table, in case I need to eat my humble pie if you are proved correct 

Appreciate your views tech/a.


----------



## tech/a

> The fact is PEN's price is now going to be driven by announcements from Wyoming and the Karoo, potential takeovers, etc., and a rapidly diminishing time span until the commencement of a low cost production facility in Wyoming




You could be correct.
I may also be.
Buyers may well exhaust sellers but at THIS point I* Dont* see that.

*SUPPLY = SELLERS*

Price has risen 350% in 3 mths I suspect a lot of the much anticipated announcements and potential for Take over is factored into that 350% parabolic rise.

The stock wont go parabolic for long .It will pause.
How many times have you seen anticipation met with a less than enthusiastic response upon announcement?

Anyway food for thought. Personally I'm out and its on the watch list.
If consolidation in this area is shallow and volumes steady on rising SP a break though would have me return but-----








I think new highs will be a lot later than sooner.---A LOT.

H/S if you have stock since 2006 a dip to 8c wont concern you in fact a good top up opportunity if you so desire.
But to have held in 2006 for 2c to see 10c (500% rise) then drop down to 1.8c isnt smart investing! (In my view).

I like to trade seeing what my investment is doing NOW not what it Coulda woulda shoulda been doing.


----------



## Megacents

TabJockey said:


> The fact that so many posters in this thread seem to be very one-sidedly bullish actually scares me out of this stock. No doubt PEN has performed well over the last year but you can stop tooting your own trumpet now, there are many other companies that have tripled in market value this year and you don't see nearly as much back slapping as Hang Seng has been drumming up over the last month.




Perhaps you are right TabJockey, that other stocks have tripled in value this year. I am bullish mostly due to the sequence of announcements in the pipeline and the very bullish nature re demand and rising spot price of uranium.

To me, stock forums are for reading and a bit of research.

I do know that anything can happen and nothing is solid. PEN is looking the goods, has management that normally keep SH in the know and most announcement I read do not have ambuguity, this is important; as is the speed of reply to my enquires is most important.

If Hangseng is "tooting your own trumpet now" well I do not use that as investment advice, nor should other readers.


----------



## hangseng

Good work tech/a, and as I said I may have to eat humble pie. I just won't defrost it just yet, as I don't think I will need it. Even if I am wrong, I believe the best we would see is around 9c. And yes mate I would find that an outstanding opportunity and as with all other dips, I would not be concerned one bit.

All I can see on my weekly MMA chart is a rising MACD, strong support at 10c and a small consolidation period as I previously indicated on very low falling volumes. That isn't display heavy selling to me, far from it in fact. Also as I said I do acknowledge the LT high is a strong resistance point and if broken will form a strong support level.

My average by on PEN is now at around 3.9c, so I am very comfortable with my investment strategy. One I might add that has now contributed to massive gains in both my SMSF and my personal holdings. As I said I am not a trader in PEN, I have invested based on what I knew to be factual and what I believed would, and now in fact has and is occurring.

The other aspect that is now massively in my favour is signifciant taxation capital gain benefits. Short term traders don't enjoy this aspect, one that I value as important part of my investment strategy when investing large sums as I have done. I do trade stocks and enjoy it (also acknowledge it isn't as easy as some seem to think), but PEN is a long term prospect for me and always was and still is. Yes with hindsight one could have bought low/sold high many times over and probably made a very high (100% of profit taxable) killing. But reality is that is hindsight and nobody would have picked every high and low to perfection...that would be the holy grail, but I gave up looking for that in favour for what I now do successfully.

Thanks again tech/a.

Aside from this, I see a little rubbish from afar has snuck in here. Contribute absolutely nothing, just throw out one liner personal abuse.


----------



## tech/a

> All I can see on my weekly MMA chart is a rising MACD,




I certainly Dont use oscillators or indicators particularly WEEKLY.
Daily work at the speed of an Elephant and Weekly at the speed of an Elephant on crutches.

A good trader (which you Dont profess to want to be--- and thats OK-- I dont want to be a brain surgeon--) would protect his profit--its HIS letting it drift back into the market is plain crazy.
Investors who watched 60% of their Super disappear are just as crazy.
Had they even had a modicum of economic OR technical experience (which comes with time) they would have saved a great deal of anguish and grief.

AND

They would be in a much stronger position today with new equity highs rather than chasing the old one with LESS capital.

*Not* a Fundamental--- Technical rant but an appeal to those involved in the stock market to understand a 200%-300% profit is RARE
Learn how to spot times of Caution and if you sell out *YOU* have your Profit.

*If it continues on OFCOURSE youll have a re entry plan
*

If H/S had sold at 10c (in 2007) he would have been able to purchase 5x his current holding and be 25 x as wealthy today on that one trade!


Food for thought.


----------



## hangseng

If of course anyone knew what was to happen with the GFC at the time...very few thought it would be as bad as what it was and many so called "professionals" were caught in the wash up, especially large funds that should have known what you are now stating.

As for 5 times, using simple maths you may be correct, however it ignores what I did once the GFC had its way with us all. That was a buying opportunity like no other for me. As it was when I bought SDL at 8.4c and ABY at 15c...simply madness that I took adavantage of building a now very tidy holding both in my SMSF and personal holdings. Also my holdings in PEN from 2006/2007 weren't anywhere near as large as I have now, courtesy of the GFC and impatient traders/investors.

I found then, and still do, learning not to panic a worthwhile trait to have. I don't follow herds either, I make my own trails. As others run for the exits, I am often at/near the base buying what they don't want and then I simply wait. Far less stressful than trading, just not as much fun as getting a quick daily fix.

However all that said tech/a I agree with you 100% and will never find myself in that position again and will protect both capital and profits if need be. I watch very closely for any fundamental signal that indicates PEN may go down to such an extent requiring action. Those signs are no where near at this point in time, in fact quite the opposite.

I aslo value the MMA's I now use religously, I have found them to be extremely useful.

At present I also see no technical reason to get myself in a tizz. Looking at the chart even if 10c broke, of which I sincerely doubt, I see 9-9.5 as the next level of support not 8.4.

I have watched the trading on PEN with my live platform for the last 4 weeks every day to see what may pan out as we neared the old highs. Yes I see some leaving the building, but not that many, with as many willing to enter and all they had to do was sit and wait and let them come to them and just keep adding to the buy side with a steady stream. Not pushing the sp up, but taking all that was given up. 10c has massive support as I said, now being tested and holding on 3 occasions.

I have my pie ready though...


----------



## Purd2

TabJockey said:


> The fact that so many posters in this thread seem to be very one-sidedly bullish actually scares me out of this stock. No doubt PEN has performed well over the last year but you can stop tooting your own trumpet now, there are many other companies that have tripled in market value this year and you don't see nearly as much back slapping as Hang Seng has been drumming up over the last month.




Have you sat down and spoken to Gus Simpson? I have...Svengali has and Hang Seng has. I suggest if you can't do so call him e-mail him and ask questions. You will soon be of the same ilk as us I can assure you. Cheers.


----------



## mattryanshares

Purd2 said:


> Have you sat down and spoken to Gus Simpson? I have...Svengali has and Hang Seng has. I suggest if you can't do so call him e-mail him and ask questions. You will soon be of the same ilk as us I can assure you. Cheers.




I think tabjockeys statement is fair enough, granted im green as the grass and im also a PEN holder, though reading some of the posts as extremely informative as they are, they tend to have a smug side to them, or may seen to as the written word can be interpreted many ways!
I have myself wondered if they are an attempt to keep the SP up, even on the small scale that this website would attract. 

Tech and H/S sparing with different points of view has been great!!! Dont eat the pie H/S but keep the analysis coming tech!!!


----------



## Purd2

mattryanshares said:


> I think tabjockeys statement is fair enough, granted im green as the grass and im also a PEN holder, though reading some of the posts as extremely informative as they are, they tend to have a smug side to them, or may seen to as the written word can be interpreted many ways!
> I have myself wondered if they are an attempt to keep the SP up, even on the small scale that this website would attract.
> 
> Tech and H/S sparing with different points of view has been great!!! Dont eat the pie H/S but keep the analysis coming tech!!!




Just an ordinary bloke here mate...no tricky shots but a GOOD understanding of PEN. Smug..no way ! I have studied this stock for 4 years and I can see the potential. Trying to help others SEE,  it seems, only attracts conflict. I will shut up now and let PEN prove the point through its share price.
Look for permitting in Wyoming, A DFS re: Wyoming, further acquisitions in Wyoming, drill results from SA...and probably news we are not expecting..Gus keeps throwing in unexpected news. 
I came here to help those that might not know as much about PEN as me and interact with HS et al...You can lead a horse to water I suppose....


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Learn how to spot times of Caution and if you sell out *YOU* have your Profit.





A profit indeed Tech, and on most occasions I would agree with you  ..... but selling a fundamentally strong stock in an obvious uptrend for the sake of a 10-20% retrace, then having to pay the taxman his 30%+ pound of flesh may not end up being the wisest trading decision.  Each person has to make their own decision on what best suits their situation.

For those who have gotten in late, maybe cut and run is an option, but I look at the chart and ask myself, would I be prepared to short it  ...  Cheers.


----------



## gregraphic

Purd2 said:


> Just an ordinary bloke here mate...no tricky shots but a GOOD understanding of PEN. Smug..no way ! I have studied this stock for 4 years and I can see the potential. Trying to help others SEE,  it seems, only attracts conflict. I will shut up now and let PEN prove the point through its share price.
> Look for permitting in Wyoming, A DFS re: Wyoming, further acquisitions in Wyoming, drill results from SA...and probably news we are not expecting..Gus keeps throwing in unexpected news.
> I came here to help those that might not know as much about PEN as me and interact with HS et al...You can lead a horse to water I suppose....






Purd2 said:


> Just an ordinary bloke here mate...no tricky shots but a GOOD understanding of PEN. Smug..no way ! I have studied this stock for 4 years and I can see the potential. Trying to help others SEE,  it seems, only attracts conflict. I will shut up now and let PEN prove the point through its share price.
> Look for permitting in Wyoming, A DFS re: Wyoming, further acquisitions in Wyoming, drill results from SA...and probably news we are not expecting..Gus keeps throwing in unexpected news.
> I came here to help those that might not know as much about PEN as me and interact with HS et al...You can lead a horse to water I suppose....




Please don't 'shut up' Purd, I (and plenty of other noobs like me, I'm sure) enjoy, value and profit from yours and all the other posters on here.


----------



## Miner

tech/a said:


> PEN from a technical view appears to have finished its run.
> Strong selling volume on 13/1 and 20/1
> Unless supply is exhausted (unlikely) there is a good chance PEN will have a healthy correction. 8.4c ish.




Dear Tech/A

I do realise you must be making comments with great conviction and research.
For the benefit of the ASF participants could you please elaborate with stats or reference what technical view made you to decide PEN finished to have finished its run?

As an ardent follower of PEN comments from some contrarians like Hangseng, Megacents, Purd2 etc, I would like to know if you could be misunderstood as a ramper (negative) or prove that you have solid points to support 8.4 cents

I have been reading your postings and I am really sorry to see a melancholy or negatve sentiments in most of your postings. I am concerned and would be happy to be wrong here.
Personally I believe PEN has great future and appreciate the postings many of ASF mates made in this thread

Cheers


----------



## Miner

Purd2 said:


> Just an ordinary bloke here mate...no tricky shots but a GOOD understanding of PEN. Smug..no way ! I have studied this stock for 4 years and I can see the potential. Trying to help others SEE,  it seems, only attracts conflict. I will shut up now and let PEN prove the point through its share price.
> Look for permitting in Wyoming, A DFS re: Wyoming, further acquisitions in Wyoming, drill results from SA...and probably news we are not expecting..Gus keeps throwing in unexpected news.
> I came here to help those that might not know as much about PEN as me and interact with HS et al...You can lead a horse to water I suppose....




Dear Purd 2

I will be requesting that your hard work and considerable research for 4 years shall not be overcome by some throw away comments 'smug' et.

We are all benefitted from your, HS and few others research work on PEN.

Please do not loose heart on your mission.  Please take business as usual and just ignore the noise on this thread.

Thanks


----------



## mattryanshares

Miner said:


> Dear Purd 2
> 
> I will be requesting that your hard work and considerable research for 4 years shall not be overcome by some throw away comments 'smug' et.
> 
> We are all benefitted from your, HS and few others research work on PEN.
> 
> Please do not loose heart on your mission.  Please take business as usual and just ignore the noise on this thread.
> 
> Thanks



 The below comments are what i was talking about and i believe you could mistake them for ramping a stocks price!!!


hangseng said:


> I am really enjoying this...
> 
> Congratulations "Contrarians"
> 
> “Buy when there's blood in the streets” (Baron Rothschild in 1871).






hangseng said:


> Just a shame they wait so long and then leave the party before the band starts playing and the real crowd joins in
> 
> I have seen this so many times, and even done the same myself and I never let myself forget it. I won't be leaving this party until well and truly after the rage begins.
> 
> Once again PEN delivers on outstanding news, and to do so yesterday was perfect for me. I have a rager of a birthday, dinner a cup of tea and an early night lol. Not even my usual 2 guiness on my birthday......one word "old"
> 
> Have a great day all.






hangseng said:


> Actually, make that 11c I just bought another 150,000 at 15:59:56






hangseng said:


> LOL...PEN gave me a double gift yesterday..




Now Im not great at even doing the whole multitasking quote's alot of the info provided was excellent it was the extra sediments that i feel seemed to be an attemt at ramping. Hence my last comments. I also think tech a has been straight forward and already provided charts and reasons why he believes the SP may rise or fall!
I think the problem is there is so much positive and as soon as anyone puts up a less then positive view its shot down by the 3 amigos!! LOL
This is just my observation and as stated im a pen holder and still holding!! No need to throw in the towel and say your not going to give any more feed back because someone doesnt agree with you???


----------



## tech/a

Miner said:


> Dear Tech/A
> 
> I do realise you must be making comments with great conviction and research.
> For the benefit of the ASF participants could you please elaborate with stats or reference what technical view made you to decide PEN finished to have finished its run?




Its a common Technical application one I demonstrated with LEG and UNX a few weeks ago in the "Breakout Trading Tips and Tricks section" Go to post 122  for reference.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20906&page=7





> As an ardent follower of PEN comments from some contrarians like Hangseng, Megacents, Purd2 etc, I would like to know if you could be misunderstood as a ramper (negative) or prove that you have solid points to support 8.4 cents




What would be my point---its analysis which I have clearly marked on a couple of charts---it is a technical view I hold on this stock---it isnt without a balanced view if you have another look.
If Supply does dry up (selling) or Buyers continue to exceed Sellers then the stock will rise.
*I'm not seeing that*. So what has to happen is sellers need to be exhausted---we can see that there aren't a great deal of buyers at this price--volume has fallen and price has fallen.
What is very likely to happen is volume will rise and price will plummet as holders want to keep some of that 350% rise. I'm seeing this as a clear possibility before the fact.
I suppose you'd all feel better if I bought it to your attention when its at 8.4 or less!

If there is any Ramping going on it looks pretty heavy on the side of those holding the stock (Not only on this thread but most I see---copious amounts of supportive evidence to justify holding an issue----you NEVER see another point of view.--I do see---"Price is just plummeting---did anyone see something is that announcement that I didn't?????"

UHHH yeh---Price had already accounted for the "Announcement"



> I have been reading your postings and I am really sorry to see a melancholy or negatve sentiments in most of your postings. I am concerned and would be happy to be wrong here.
> Personally I believe PEN has great future and appreciate the postings many of ASF mates made in this thread
> 
> Cheers




I often see individual stock threads which Dont present a balanced view. I Dont comment on all threads---no need to and I Dont have the time particularly as in depth as this analysis.

Sure this thread has been balanced for some months---I personally believe that a little "conditional" balance is needed with a technical view on PEN---*right now.*
If I whole heartedly agreed than I would be 100% positive (Not 20%) and you would be all for the technical "support".  Ill certainly give it if I believe thats what is being displayed.

So you will see "negative" posts ( I think they are alternative views) designed to have a few participants stop and pause---with some hints that will hopefully maximize return and minimize loss.

*What you dont want to see.*
(1) Increased Volume and widening range down days.
(2) Decreased volume on any up days with small ranges.

*What we want to see.*
(1) Price stop falling and volume remain atleast steady
(2) Very Very low volume down day followed by an average volume up day.
(3) A wide range Down day with heavy volume closing in the top quartile of the bar.

I Dont hold Pen sold at 10.5 had it from 8.9c---a breakout trade.
But I trade -----


----------



## hangseng

tech/a I sincerely respect your input, however on this occasion I don't agree with you view. That is not to say I don't appreciate it. Part of what makes the market.

A shame others here can't simply put up alternate views in the manner you do. Instead they take a simplistic, what I more term blinkered view without taking all said in context.

No secret I am unwaveringly positive on PEN, that isn't to say I don't want to read alternate information. However, if it is fundamentally wrong I will and have done counter it with factual information.

Both here and elsewhere we have had "balanced" posters come on. Firstly having a go at me personally, then putting up what at first sight, or to the unknowing, seems technically correct. I have lost count of how many times I have proven them wrong, and also we finally find they are little more than multi nics "posting according to book".

Balanced, open and honest views I enjoy, provided they are genuine. If not yes "amigo" I will counter it with the facts.

Some "balanced" posters would have had others believe Lance in the Powder River Basin was mostly dry. Why did they post this when it was factually incorrect an now clearly proven to be just that? Why did they try to defame Gus Simpson over his past, of which he was cleared of any wrong doing? Why did they come on with positive views of PEN, befriending posters such as me, then once the sp went significantly up go on all out personal attacks on no less than 3 forums to defame me and others?

Yes I remain positive, consistently so without "swinging" my view around according to holdings. Don't be confuse light hearted comments and a positive outlook as merely "ramping". Yes it was my birthday, yes PEN came out with an outstanding announcement on that day and also commenced drilling at Karoo on that day. Yes I was very upbeat on that day and I actually did celebrate as I stated.

I have also stated that I believed there would be resistance at the old high levels. I believed "some" that bought at or near the old highs and held all this time would sell out of pure relief they have their capital back or maybe a little profit. Nothing wrong with that and very understandable, I said I have done the same in the past.

I aso stated that it was a shame they hold so long, only to leave before it really commences with PEN. Make no mistake there is so much more about to happen, turning a once penny dreadful into a producer. A feat not often achieved as we mostly her are aware I am sure.

If my positive outlook is of concern to some, even "scaring" them it seems, then I am sorry that isn't my problem. I am so confident and positive due to a now in depth knowledge of this companies activities, almost to the point of predictive of outcomes.

To date I am also yet to be proven wrong on any major fundamental aspect, and PEN has delivered as stated. Why wouldn't I be positive and pleased with my decision?

People would find far more joy and success in life if they were candid, and in respect of forums focussed on the stock instead of personal digs. The latter displays little more than ignorance and narrow minded thinking.

Anyone who really knows me understands I am not only candid in my views, I genuinely share my information and knowledge. I do so, and will continue to do so, in the hope others will do the same and we are all the better for it.

For any readers who may think I have sold out of PEN...think again 

Have a great day
HS


----------



## Megacents

Thanks posters for the discussion. I generally invest via fundamentals,

For example
Management style and expertise
Industry
Price (an indicator)
stage of operations (exploring or near production)
Mostly energy stocks (a real or sometimes perceived world issue)

I like to see and read data represented via graphs so any TA comments are really appreciated. Not my area of expertise, but the SP run lately does seem to be taking a breather. Still reckon the 10-10.5cents is the main floor. 

Looking forward to the quarter report, must be some over worked employees or management is waiting/preparing some interesting news.

For any one interested, I have attached the spreadsheet for NRC permits application status. Sorry if it has already been posted.

Status Legend:
Code indicating the status of the application where: 
(1)= Not Received, 
(2)=Acceptance Review Ongoing, 
(3)= Not Accepted, Withdrawn, or Review Postponed, 
(4)=Technical Review Ongoing, and 
(5)=Licensing Action Completed


----------



## Miner

Megacents said:


> Thanks posters for the discussion. I generally invest via fundamentals,
> 
> For example
> Management style and expertise
> Industry
> Price (an indicator)
> stage of operations (exploring or near production)
> Mostly energy stocks (a real or sometimes perceived world issue)
> 
> I like to see and read data represented via graphs so any TA comments are really appreciated. Not my area of expertise, but the SP run lately does seem to be taking a breather. Still reckon the 10-10.5cents is the main floor.
> 
> Looking forward to the quarter report, must be some over worked employees or management is waiting/preparing some interesting news.
> 
> For any one interested, I have attached the spreadsheet for NRC permits application status. Sorry if it has already been posted.
> 
> Status Legend:
> Code indicating the status of the application where:
> (1)= Not Received,
> (2)=Acceptance Review Ongoing,
> (3)= Not Accepted, Withdrawn, or Review Postponed,
> (4)=Technical Review Ongoing, and
> (5)=Licensing Action Completed




Dear Mega Cents

The following note I am putting not just related to PEN.

I would like to thank you for your spreadsheet and do align with your fundamentals. I also see the credential and success/ failure story of the directors as an explorer/developer/producer. 

In your spreadsheet while you attempted for providing information PEN. But  did you realise what wealth of other related information you incidentally provided ? I will tell you. It is about the process. I could see the heap leaching was sparingly followed by the companies. Which confirms why Toro Energy backed off from using heap leaching. Last year I completed a feasibility study on a uranium mine (not Toro) in Australia for a significant client. We did not recommend heap leaching. It was against client's direction. But now I am immensly pleased to see your spreadsheet and no matter even if PEN was not listed in it, the technical information saves a bloody good amount of research from my side for future uranium projects.

Thanks a lot .


----------



## Megacents

Miner said:


> Dear Mega Cents
> 
> The following note I am putting not just related to PEN.
> 
> I would like to thank you for your spreadsheet and do align with your fundamentals. I also see the credential and success/ failure story of the directors as an explorer/developer/producer.
> 
> In your spreadsheet while you attempted for providing information PEN. But  did you realise what wealth of other related information you incidentally provided ? I will tell you. It is about the process. I could see the heap leaching was sparingly followed by the companies. Which confirms why Toro Energy backed off from using heap leaching. Last year I completed a feasibility study on a uranium mine (not Toro) in Australia for a significant client. We did not recommend heap leaching. It was against client's direction. But now I am immensly pleased to see your spreadsheet and no matter even if PEN was not listed in it, the technical information saves a bloody good amount of research from my side for future uranium projects.
> 
> Thanks a lot .




Hi Miner

Glad to help.

If you have a look at entry 13 it is Strata Energy, Inc., which is PEN. You are right about the design type and you can also see sites that are ready to go  (permit wise).

Website for that file is http://www.nrc.gov/info-finder/materials/uranium/index.html

Lots of other good info and thanks for letting me know what area you work in


----------



## hangseng

Yes Strata Energy is a 100% subsidiary company of Peninsula Energy (PEN). Not many realise this, it was the outcome of PEN (then Peninsula Minerals) buying ALL of the uranium assets of Pacmag. Strata Energy being the US owner of the Sundance (now Lance) uranium leases of the Powder River Basin and the historical data.

Interestingly Miner some others are now revising their respective feasibility studies that had heap leach. Going back to do "further testing" following dismal feasibility study outcomes displaying extremely high Opex and in particular massive Capex, especially in comparison to PEN. BMN share price was slammed as was PNN, both being placed on hold, PNN indefinitely as they clearly required a much higher uranium price.

The benefits of ISR I have touted for a very long time and now it is becoming blatantly obvious why. Low Opex and low Capex were the hallmarks and still are of the low cost ISR mining and process methodology.

I spoke in depth with Gus Simpson about this over 3 years ago and we were both of the opinion PEN had some work to do in educating funds, brokers and analysts regarding ISR. This was required as they clearly did not understand it in Australia very well at all. Many erroneously using the "acid process" ISL Honeymoon process and the conventional mining (open cut/underground) method to compare with PEN. They were also wrongly using the "pounds in ground" comparison, of which was way of the mark, completely ignoring the correct "grade thickness" metric for ISR resource calculation. Not to mention completely overlooking the significant aspect "porosity and permeability" to calculate the "Darcy rating (mD)", of which Lance is displaying over 4 times higher than nearby Uranerz. Glenn Catchpole the MD of URZ himself touting the benefits in recovery of a high mD.

This was why PEN was being ignored according to Gus, and I agreed completely with him then and still do.

All history now and the market is just beginning to wake up to the significant benefits of ISR and how good Lance really is. Now displaying "multiple stacked roll fronts" in all new lease areas and vanadium credits lowering the Opex.

Sorry to ramble on, just trying to share as much as I can, with what little space there is to place it. Look back through the thread here and you will find many links I put up with the above information. Anyone considering PEN as an investment should go to them and learn all you can about ISR and in particular Lance and the Powder river Basin. Not to mention reading the company reports. I read the latter over and over in case I have missed something and when looking for past information.

This a classic I was looking for today on Karoo:

_"Ground checking of the anomalies will now be prioritised by the Company so that the anomalies can be put into geological and topographic context. *As radiometric surveys can only test the very shallow surface environment (a few cm) a uranium mineralised body covered with a thin layer of sand or soil will give a minimal to non-existent response in the uranium channel. Thin overburden can also dilute a uranium response and make it very weak*, highlighting the importance of placing anomalies in context."_
source: http://www.pel.net.au/pdf/080508 Karoo Rasults Final.pdf

Anyone that followed EXT and the Rossing South development during exploration would know why I have highlighted this important aspect. I wait with anticipation for the latest Karoo drilling results, past results both drilled and historical displayed very high grades of uranium. 

What will they find beneath the "masked" surface they indicated previously? A past online/offline buddy of mine picked up on this very early with EXT, he was drowned down by the "balanced" posters when he spoke of it. Well mate if you are still watching, you were so on the money...


----------



## Purd2

Thank you miner.
I suggest you liaise with Hang Seng if you can..he is in mining engineering too and is, according to his wife; a workaholic.  I have been a friend via forums for 4 years.
I will stick around 'cos of you.


----------



## tech/a

H/S

Just curious---whats your total holding in PEN---number of shares.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> H/S
> 
> Just curious---whats your total holding in PEN---number of shares.




Sorry mate I don't disclose my holdings on forums, nor do I ask others. Apart from being irrelevant to the stock discussion, I regard it as personal information. Suffice to state quite a lot (for me) but not enough in total for the T20. I hold in 3 accounts, 2 private and one my SMSF being the largest. The only one I build on now is my smsf.

All I am willing to publicly display.


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> Actually, make that 11c I just bought another 150,000 at 15:59:56




???????



> Sorry mate I don't disclose my holdings on forums, nor do I ask others.
> I regard it as personal information.





Caught up in the excitement--eh!


----------



## hangseng

Disclosing a single buy is not disclosing my *holdings* tech/a, of which I believe was your original question.

I suggest you get back to the stock.


----------



## thestevo888

Well, getting back to the stock, it's getting hammered... however, just to add my  to the great debate, I am pretty unruffled by any short term fluctuations. Obviously, much of what has been discussed has come down to different investing styles. As a trading play, Pen is only heading in one direction at the moment. If you are a short termer, of course it makes sense to get out now and re-enter at a more promising juncture. For long term holders motivated by events which may or will unfold over the next year or years, and unwilling to cop a large tax hit, why on earth would we get out now? Whatever the reaction to the next round of announcements, I think it would be fair to say that the financial fundamentals of a producing and expanding Uranium play (as PEN will be by 2012) have NOT been priced in to the current sp. Yes, JORC upgrades, etc, are necessarily speculative atm, but that's all part of the game. I'm pretty new to this whole thing, but I for one refused to be too concerned by short term fluctuations or drops. For investors, painful waiting  and copping the odd battering for long term gain surely has to be part and parcel of the business. My opinion only. 
HS, svengali et al, please keep up the good work - I don't care whether you guys are bullish or otherwise, I simply appreciate the fact that you have taken the time to provide others such as myself with detailed and reliable information. Cheers to all.


----------



## hangseng

Thanks stevo...for the record and clarity  I am very, very bullish.

Yes we received a salvo this morning, however I am not fased at all. Merely opportunities being thrown at me as far as I am concerned. Just to keep everyone  happy I won't state any further than that 

The bumpy ride I expected before we go back and over 11.5 is occurring, nothing more nothing less. Old holders saying goodbye and ST traders running in panic. All just IMO of course...

I haven't defrosted any pies yet, I don't believe they will be required. I see that the level I spoke of being 9.5 has come in with support, also no surprise as it is a clear technical support level , being noted as previous resistance. If that breaks, I may consider defrosting a pie...but I won't be doing so unless it breaks the next level at .09


----------



## thestevo888

hangseng said:


> Merely opportunities being thrown at me as far as I am concerned. Just to keep everyone happy I won't state any further than that




I agree... if I had another few spare $k I would be dipping in again for sure... I wish I wasn't a broke high school teacher!


----------



## Miner

tech/a said:


> ???????
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Caught up in the excitement--eh!




tech /A

May I respectfully request you that you please do not get personal with any one. It is in the same way you don't like a message to be personal to you.
If you have any issue please send a PM and resolve out of the public communication platform.
I am a holder and saw PEN drifted down today. That is life of a volatile stock. But could not appreciate to see one ASF member is attacking or sending sarcasm to another fellow ASF member.

You might have seen already Purd2 has expressed his intention to shut up on PEN thread. If HS choses the same - do you realise who will be looser ? Neither HS nor Purd 2. They will still make their money on PEN and others. The loosers will be ASF forum, the PEN enthusiatics and some ignorants like ME.

We all are human and have our emotion. Pleae be critical on PEN performance or lack of it, quality of posting - No issue. But please do not direct salvo to any fellow member.

It is my request as I care for ASF and you and others here.

Thanks for your attention and helping to bring the fresh breadth on the forum and discuss PEN.


----------



## tech/a

Miner said:


> tech /A
> 
> May I respectfully request you that you please do not get personal with any one. It is in the same way you don't like a message to be personal to you.
> If you have any issue please send a PM and resolve out of the public communication platform.
> I am a holder and saw PEN drifted down today. That is life of a volatile stock. But could not appreciate to see one ASF member is attacking or sending sarcasm to another fellow ASF member.
> 
> You might have seen already Purd2 has expressed his intention to shut up on PEN thread. If HS choses the same - do you realise who will be looser ? Neither HS nor Purd 2. They will still make their money on PEN and others. The loosers will be ASF forum, the PEN enthusiatics and some ignorants like ME.
> 
> We all are human and have our emotion. Pleae be critical on PEN performance or lack of it, quality of posting - No issue. But *please do not direct salvo *to any fellow member.
> 
> It is my request as I care for ASF and you and others here.
> 
> Thanks for your attention and helping to bring the fresh breadth on the forum and discuss PEN.




WHAT!!!!!!!!

*You have ------Gotta ------ be JOKING*

Take the Duck out of your Crosshairs and get back to the topic.
If you have a problem with me then *YOU* private mail *ME* and take your beef out of the public forum!


----------



## jonojpsg

thestevo888 said:


> I agree... if I had another few spare $k I would be dipping in again for sure... I wish I wasn't a broke high school teacher!




Geez mate, I'm a high school teacher, and I'm certainly not broke!!  Don't blame being a high school teacher for being broke

Also miner I have to agree with tech here, you are WAY off the mark with your comments and I suggest you might be getting the attention of mods if you're not careful.  

tech has put forward a position based on *technical* reasons, which is eminently NOT personal, or ramping in any way...

It seems there is some interest at these levels and we will see if 9.5 holds.


----------



## hangseng

There was nothing technical about techs question put to me. It was personal and clearly with less than respectable nor intelligent motive.

If he stuck to technical discussion it would be fine. Although his last guess at 8.4 is way off being factual. It ignored 2 others levels of previous resistance. Of which by his own admission becomes support.

I applaud and agree with Miners efforts to get disccusion back to PEN.


----------



## nomore4s

All right everyone take a deep breath and relax before this thread gets out of hand.

The thread has been moving along nicely so let us see if we can continue like that without turning it into an argument over nothing.

Thank you


----------



## thestevo888

jonojpsg said:


> Geez mate, I'm a high school teacher, and I'm certainly not broke!!  Don't blame being a high school teacher for being broke
> 
> .



Well, it's all relative, I guess... not really broke, just no more spare investment capital

and I agree with nomore4s - this has been a fantastic read over the past few months... keep the good stuff coming.


----------



## mattryanshares

Cash flow and activities reports out,

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110131/pdf/01146179.pdf

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110131/pdf/01146179.pdf

Or go to 

http://www.asx.net.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=pen


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> There was nothing technical about techs question put to me. It was personal and clearly with less than respectable nor intelligent motive.
> 
> If he stuck to technical discussion it would be fine. Although his last guess at 8.4 is way off being factual. It ignored 2 others levels of previous resistance. Of which by his own admission becomes support.
> 
> I applaud and agree with Miners efforts to get disccusion back to PEN.




Just before I go.

The question was out of curiousity nothing more.
Ive put many weeks of effort with explicit charts into *ASF*.
There is very little interest in T/A so it seems particularly from the Fundies.
Thats fine---they love the wads of info to churn through.



> Although his last *guess* at 8.4 is way off being *factual*. It ignored 2 others levels of previous resistance. Of which by his own admission becomes support.




This however is seen as fine---clearly an attack.

There are many many ways of calculating a support or resistance level its not a guess as the abundance of Supply wasnt a guess either.
You have no interest.

Thats fine too I wont waste my breath or time any further.

Ill leave you all to it.


----------



## hangseng

This from the latest report:

"During Phase 2 of the programme *all new surface uranium occurrences within the selected drilling areas will be subjected to an initial drilling programme to confirm subsurface extension of the mineralisation and to determine grades*."


This from previous Karoo reporting:
_
"As radiometric surveys can only test the very shallow surface environment (a few cm) a uranium mineralised body *covered with a thin layer of sand or soil will give a minimal to non-existent response in the uranium channel. Thin overburden can also dilute a uranium response and make it very weak*, highlighting the importance of placing anomalies in context."_

http://www.pel.net.au/pdf/080508 Karoo Rasults Final.pdf

Anyone who saw what EXT reported about 3 years ago in relation to this would know why I am highlighting this very important aspect. Beneath this "masked" surface reading could be a massive uranium resource, or there could be nothing at all. I dobt very much it will be the latter, however the former remains to be seen.

The layers of "sand or soil" PEN indicates above can "mask" the subsurface uranium mineralisation, as happened at Rossing. Many argued that was a load of rubbish on other forums, we now know the results at Rossing.

I am not saying this will occur, I am just highlighting that it has the potential to occur and the similarities that should not be ignored. 

PEN clearly aren't ignoring this aspect.


----------



## hangseng

Now drilling is underway at Karoo, what will be uncovered in this campaign?


A little history for those that haven't gone back that far:

*FURTHER HIGH GRADE URANIUM AND MOLYBDENUM CONFIRMED AT KAROO
Highlights*
 Uranium mineralisation confirmed to *9,053ppm (0.905%) U3O8 *at Site 22
 Uranium mineralisation confirmed to *1,833ppm (0.183%) U3O8 *at Site 49
 Molybdenum mineralisation confirmed to *879ppm (0.088%) Mo *at Site 22
 Molybdenum mineralisation confirmed to *965ppm (0.097%) Mo *at Site 49
 Priority drill targets confirmed
 Follow up testing on additional radiometric anomalies to be undertaken.

Karoo has massive grades and in addition to the uranium very high grades of Molybdenum (Mo).

Previously reported at Site 29:

*HIGH GRADE URANIUM AND MOLYBDENUM CONFIRMED AT KAROO PROJECTS
Highlights*
 Assays confirm uranium mineralisation with grades to *21,000ppm (2.1%) U3O8*
 *Molybdenum grades confirmed up to 2,430ppm*
 *7 out of 10 prospects return grades over 1,000ppm U3O8*
 Four very high priority drill targets confirmed


I can't wait for the drill results of this current campaign. Maybe you can see why I am also focused on the _"masking"_ aspect.

Before we go rushing out to mortgage everything, the Mo results above were taken from the "assay of twenty three rock chip samples". Although they can be a reliable indicator, the drilling is obviously required to confirm.

The Karoo leases though do have significant historical drilling data. 

This is something I have never forgotten:
*"Potential to add approximately 50% to the value of the in situ uranium. This significantly impacts on the economics of mining these types of mineralisation"*

*sources:* 

http://www.pel.net.au/news___announcements/karoo__south_africa.phtml

http://www.pel.net.au/projects/karoo_region__south_africa.phtml


----------



## mattryanshares

Hi h/s
Any idea what the minimum requires would be to make mining viable at current prices? Then what would be an excellent or above expectations???
What's the benchmark on any fully operational mines that are posting good results???


----------



## hangseng

mattryanshares said:


> Hi h/s
> Any idea what the minimum requires would be to make mining viable at current prices? Then what would be an excellent or above expectations???
> What's the benchmark on any fully operational mines that are posting good results???




Hi Matt, I take it you are referring to Karoo?

Lance is already indicated as economically viable and will only get better.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> Now drilling is underway at Karoo, what will be uncovered in this campaign?
> 
> 
> Karoo has massive grades and in addition to the uranium very high grades of Molybdenum (Mo).




I recently cashed in one of my slow movers who were chasing Molybdenum, based on the lack of forward planning by the management ..... 

"Moly" is simply another string to the bow for PEN ...... In the words of much smarter Investors than I ...... If you are going to back a Spec play .... back the management of the Company !! 

I seriously doubt whether PEN will remain a Spec play for any length of time however ....  And I'd be curious to hear if any "Spec" investors are more impressed with their Co's management compared to what PEN management have achieved to date.


----------



## Megacents

Been a bit of a charged day on the PEN thread 

SP briefly broke my un skilled shelf of 10-10.5cents. Finished the day after auction at 10cents. Now that would have to be good.

Shame tech/a that you may have decided not to post. I enjoyed reading the interpretation of the graph.

Mo is known to be in the Karoo Basin. What is not known is the amount and its effect on the Opex. The Va has a postive effect on the Opex (PFS) at Wyoming. More drilling is needed for that aspect.

Oh by the way did anyone have a smile at that "305 line Km of known stacked roll fronts" p7 4th quater 2010 activities report? Only a small percentage has been explored. So I wonder how much PEN may find when they continue the drilling program over the next few years?

The thing I enjoyed the most today was reading the change that will occur with the  Lance JORC, an increase from the inferred to indicated category (important for funding and the DFS, BFS). Now we have to wait for that announcement. I bet there will also be an increse in the measured, just a guess.

Approx. $26M in the bank
Draw facilty of $100M

I still wonder what Holden is up too?

Does any one know that happened the YA draw facility is it still available??

Thanks for any replies


----------



## grunta

barney said:


> I recently cashed in one of my slow movers who were chasing Molybdenum, based on the lack of forward planning by the management .....
> 
> "Moly" is simply another string to the bow for PEN ...... In the words of much smarter Investors than I ...... If you are going to back a Spec play .... back the management of the Company !!




Hi BARNEY,

about 20 months ago I went to a AGM in Perth and listened to a briefing on PEN from GUS. He gave a run down on what they expected to achieve with a time line. 

I came away from that meeting so excited and commenced to accumulate PEN shares, collected all I could with CAP raisings and now have a nice holding.

Gus has delivered on every aspect of that run down. Without doubt PEN are a specie showing exceptional signs of perhaps becoming a producer in the not to distant future.

Like many others I wait like a 5 year old at Christmas for further fundamental info to be released.

I imagine PEN having a JORC resource of 300 mlb and think what price will the specie be at then?

So far so good and things look very positative. At this stage I can't find any negatives for PEN as they keep ticking the boxes. 

What about the increase in price for U308, the amount of new reactors being built and PENS timing to commence production?

Very happy with PENS management BARNEY and look forward to a great 2011.

Regards Grunta


----------



## Purd2

tech/a said:


> Just before I go.
> 
> The question was out of curiousity nothing more.
> Ive put many weeks of effort with explicit charts into *ASF*.
> There is very little interest in T/A so it seems particularly from the Fundies.
> Thats fine---they love the wads of info to churn through.
> 
> 
> 
> This however is seen as fine---clearly an attack.
> 
> There are many many ways of calculating a support or resistance level its not a guess as the abundance of Supply wasnt a guess either.
> You have no interest.
> 
> Thats fine too I wont waste my breath or time any further.
> 
> Ill leave you all to it.




Thanks


----------



## barney

grunta said:


> I came away from that meeting so excited and commenced to accumulate PEN shares, collected all I could with CAP raisings and now have a nice holding.
> 
> Gus has delivered on every aspect of that run down. Without doubt PEN are a specie showing exceptional signs of perhaps becoming a producer in the not to distant future.
> 
> 
> So far so good and things look very positative. At this stage I can't find any negatives for PEN as they keep ticking the boxes.
> 
> 
> Very happy with PENS management BARNEY and look forward to a great 2011.
> 
> Regards Grunta




Cheers Grunta.




Purd2 said:


> Thanks




You are a man of few words Purd.


----------



## Miner

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



tech/a said:


> Thought that was obvious I hold it.
> 
> Just being my normal sarcastic self.
> 
> Duck with attitude!!




blast from the  past - 2006 .
It is really good to see ho long this thread PEN is in place. Surely there have been lot of well wishers of PEN compared to I joined this thread comparatively recently.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals*



Miner said:


> blast from the  past - 2006 .
> It is really good to see ho long this thread PEN is in place. Surely there have been lot of well wishers of PEN compared to I joined this thread comparatively recently.




*Traded* PEN a few times.

The Two of you seem to think any opinion outside of "PEN is going to be a $100 stock"
is trashing your Fundi analysis.

Ill stay a trader.


----------



## hangseng

One sure as hell, fundamental analysis is the driver of a share price not lines on a chart.

T/A has it's place for both investors and traders, but T/A is an indicator only and is historical by it's very existence.

I will stick to fundamental analysis as the basis of my investments. It takes a lot more effort than T/A, however it takes the guess work and emotion out of it based on sound information and facts.

T/A is great for finding an entry point with a fundamentally sound stock, it is also useful to aid in identifying an exit point for a stock with failing fundamentals.

Yes I prefer to take the hard way and read wads of information and reap the benefits of doing so, including massive taxation benefits of LT investment. 

This statement is so ridiculous tech/A...
_



			The Two of you seem to think any opinion outside of "PEN is going to be a $100 stock" is trashing your Fundi analysis.
		
Click to expand...


_
Whoever stated that may I ask? I know I certainly haven't, nor have I ever seen such an outrageous baseless statement posted anywhere. Or is it simply an over exageration in a vain attempt to make a non-existent point?

All that said, T/A and F/A compliment each other and aren't mutually exclusive. One without the other in my view is akin to throwing darts blindfolded.


----------



## mattryanshares

hangseng said:


> One sure as hell, fundamental analysis is the driver of a share price not lines on a chart.
> 
> T/A has it's place for both investors and traders, but T/A is an indicator only and is historical by it's very existence.
> 
> I will stick to fundamental analysis as the basis of my investments. It takes a lot more effort than T/A, however it takes the guess work and emotion out of it based on sound information and facts.
> 
> T/A is great for finding an entry point with a fundamentally sound stock, it is also useful to aid in identifying an exit point for a stock with failing fundamentals.
> 
> Yes I prefer to take the hard way and read wads of information and reap the benefits of doing so, including massive taxation benefits of LT investment.
> 
> This statement is so ridiculous tech/A...
> 
> 
> Whoever stated that may I ask? I know I certainly haven't, nor have I ever seen such an outrageous baseless statement posted anywhere. Or is it simply an over exageration in a vain attempt to make a non-existent point?
> 
> All that said, T/A and F/A compliment each other and aren't mutually exclusive. One without the other in my view is akin to throwing darts blindfolded.




I wish everyone would just get back to giving insights on the stock and not on others opinions!! LOL Ive sent both you PM's and both of you are good blokes with lots to offer, this should never be personel and im sure it really isnt!

Ive noticed buyers are increasing to sellers so hopefull we will get some more positive movement as a result! it briefly hit 10.5 cents today!


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

hangseng said:


> One sure as hell, fundamental analysis is the driver of a share price not lines on a chart.




Now this is plain bias and incorrect. The driver of a share price is not caused by fundamental analysis. The driver of a share price is the relationship between supply and demand caused by EVERY type of analysis known to man.

The price you pay for a stock is a combination of fundamentalists, technical analysts, gamblers, dart throwers, forecasters, etc - why? Because depending on the combined view of ALL their opinions the share price will move in the direction held by the majority on a $ basis. 

You can be 100% right from a fundamental point of view, but without the majority sharing your view your stock will go down or remain stagnant.

Learn to respect and _understand_ the view of others because fundamentals are not the only driver of share price.



hangseng said:


> T/A has it's place for both investors and traders, but T/A is an indicator only and is historical by it's very existence.




What a load of hypocrisy! What do you base your fundamental analysis on? Information that is present *today* or in the *past*. How is that not 'historical by it's very existence'. Technical analysts do _exactly_ the same, as does every other type of analysis.



hangseng said:


> I will stick to fundamental analysis as the basis of my investments. It takes a lot more effort than T/A, however it takes the guess work and emotion out of it based on sound information and facts.




You clearly demonstrate your lack of understanding as to what constitutes T/A. T/A requires a lot of effort, equal to that of fundamental analysis. News flash: F/A guess the value of an asset based on current and historic prices. If there was no 'educated guessing' required in F/A then it'd be easy and everyone would be right 100% of the time.



hangseng said:


> T/A is great for finding an entry point with a fundamentally sound stock, it is also useful to aid in identifying an exit point for a stock with failing fundamentals.




Agreed in part - it's great for finding an entry or exit point regardless of fundamentals. Fundamentals can stay the same but many other factors can influence an entry or exit point. Panic selling/buying due to news headlines is an example - these are ignored by fundamental analysts because the value of the underlying assets still remain the same. You know that information and you therefore exploit it by utilising the value investing principle. So the price can move even if fundamentals don't change. 



hangseng said:


> All that said, T/A and F/A compliment each other and aren't mutually exclusive. One without the other in my view is akin to throwing darts blindfolded.




Very true and spot on. So how about we _*all *_stop attacking each others opinions and focus on discussing PEN.


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> One sure as hell, fundamental analysis is the driver of a share price not lines on a chart.




So the next time you go to your doctor and he does an ECG and finds that something is not quite right, just tell him to ignore it as you know that you are fundamentally ok.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

mattryanshares said:


> Ive noticed buyers are increasing to sellers so hopefull we will get some more positive movement as a result! it briefly hit 10.5 cents today!




Massive resistance at 10.5 today. Approx 10 million shares at time of writing. 

Although i'm confused as to how you equate buyers moving to sellers as a sign for positive movement? I would have thought it'd be the opposite (i.e. more people selling will drive the price down in the short term?)


----------



## boff

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Massive resistance at 10.5 today. Approx 10 million shares at time of writing.
> 
> Although i'm confused as to how you equate buyers moving to sellers as a sign for positive movement? I would have thought it'd be the opposite (i.e. more people selling will drive the price down in the short term?)




I'm sure a lot of the resistance is down to the fact that at 10c, the next tick down is 0.1c and the next tick up is 0.5c making a trade that much more onerous for a buyer than a seller.


----------



## tech/a

Many find this debate of interest I do particularly with Hang sang and Miner and co involved (You have a good fundie background).

So I invite all over here to carry on---could be excellent.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21743&p=608517#post608517


----------



## mattryanshares

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Massive resistance at 10.5 today. Approx 10 million shares at time of writing.
> 
> Although i'm confused as to how you equate buyers moving to sellers as a sign for positive movement? I would have thought it'd be the opposite (i.e. more people selling will drive the price down in the short term?)




My bad engrish!!! 
I mean there is gradually becoming more buyers compared to the amount of sellers!! Or buyers numbers are increasing to the amount of sellers.

There has always been about 260 sellers. Yestreday there was 160 buyers, when i wrote the original post there were 170 buyers and now there is 185 buyers.  Buyers increasing equals demand equals higher SP???


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

mattryanshares said:


> My bad engrish!!!
> I mean there is gradually becoming more buyers compared to the amount of sellers!! Or buyers numbers are increasing to the amount of sellers.
> 
> There has always been about 260 sellers. Yestreday there was 160 buyers, when i wrote the original post there were 170 buyers and now there is 185 buyers.  Buyers increasing equals demand equals higher SP???




Haha no harm done! Although i'd venture to say that you should be wary of comparing just the total number of buyers/sellers. The volume of shares is very important too - if 170 wanted to buy 100 million shares has gone to 185 buyers wanting to buy 60 million you have a situation of lessening demand. So just saying to be careful when using those sort of figures in your analysis.


----------



## hangseng

Regardless it was pleasant to see that single 5,000,000 buy step up to take up 10c.

Someone (else) likes PEN


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

hangseng said:


> Regardless it was pleasant to see that single 5,000,000 buy step up to take up 10c.
> 
> Someone (else) likes PEN




Throwing $500,000 into a single stock... would be interesting to see the size of that fellas portfolio 

Unless he doesn't diversify


----------



## Mickel

hangseng said:


> Regardless it was pleasant to see that single 5,000,000 buy step up to take up 10c.
> 
> Someone (else) likes PEN




Was there a single 5M buy ????

Total sales for the day were only 10M odd.

It appears there was a sale of 1.5M+ at 2.41.26 pm and there was also a sale of 500,000 at 3.45 pm.

Can you shed more light on the matter H/S ?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

There was a $50,000(approx.) buy at 9.9c at 12.46 pm recorded.  Maybe that's what it was.

Value	Number
of Trades
176 - 205	4:10:09 pm	10	3,613,284	0.1	$361,328	30
174 - 175	2:39:43 pm	9.9	100,000	0.1	$9,900	2
165 - 173	2:31:28 pm	10	20,623	0.1	$2,062	9
164	2:29:05 pm	9.9	82,489	0.1	$8,166	1
158 - 163	2:28:38 pm	10	7,500	0.1	$750	6
157	2:26:56 pm	9.9	30,000	0.1	$2,970	1
144 - 156	2:04:44 pm	10	23,302	0.1	$2,330	13
143	1:53:56 pm	9.9	10,208	0.1	$1,011	1
111 - 142	1:53:44 pm	10	248,624	0.1	$24,862	32
109 - 110	1:23:26 pm	9.9	177,000	0.1	$17,523	2
95 - 108	1:16:05 pm	10	40,207	0.1	$4,021	14
93 - 94	12:52:02 pm	9.9	98,000	0.1	$9,702	2
91 - 92	12:46:12 pm	10	60,500	0.1	$6,050	2
85 - 90	12:46:00 pm	9.9	500,000	0.1	$49,500	6
77 - 84	12:40:41 pm	10	74,999	0.1	$7,500	8
74 - 76	12:19:26 pm	9.9	130,000	0.1	$12,870	3
45 - 73	11:26:47 am	10	1,733,194	0.5	$173,319	29
42 - 44	10:24:13 am	10.5	185,000	0.5	$19,425	3
1 - 41	10:16:39 am	10	2,990,596	 	$299,060


----------



## Mickel

Gringotts Bank said:


> There was a $50,000(approx.) buy at 9.9c at 12.46 pm recorded.  Maybe that's what it was.
> 
> Value	Number
> of Trades
> 176 - 205	4:10:09 pm	10	3,613,284	0.1	$361,328	30
> 174 - 175	2:39:43 pm	9.9	100,000	0.1	$9,900	2
> 165 - 173	2:31:28 pm	10	20,623	0.1	$2,062	9
> 164	2:29:05 pm	9.9	82,489	0.1	$8,166	1
> 158 - 163	2:28:38 pm	10	7,500	0.1	$750	6
> 157	2:26:56 pm	9.9	30,000	0.1	$2,970	1
> 144 - 156	2:04:44 pm	10	23,302	0.1	$2,330	13
> 143	1:53:56 pm	9.9	10,208	0.1	$1,011	1
> 111 - 142	1:53:44 pm	10	248,624	0.1	$24,862	32
> 109 - 110	1:23:26 pm	9.9	177,000	0.1	$17,523	2
> 95 - 108	1:16:05 pm	10	40,207	0.1	$4,021	14
> 93 - 94	12:52:02 pm	9.9	98,000	0.1	$9,702	2
> 91 - 92	12:46:12 pm	10	60,500	0.1	$6,050	2
> 85 - 90	12:46:00 pm	9.9	500,000	0.1	$49,500	6
> 77 - 84	12:40:41 pm	10	74,999	0.1	$7,500	8
> 74 - 76	12:19:26 pm	9.9	130,000	0.1	$12,870	3
> 45 - 73	11:26:47 am	10	1,733,194	0.5	$173,319	29
> 42 - 44	10:24:13 am	10.5	185,000	0.5	$19,425	3
> 1 - 41	10:16:39 am	10	2,990,596	 	$299,060




What I see at 12.46.01 pm is a sale of 100,000 shares at $0.099 for a total of $9900.

Your reference appears to be 6 sales below-

12:46:01 PM	0.099	100,000	9,900.00	 
12:40:48 PM	0.099	3,000	           297.00	 
12:40:48 PM	0.099	115,000    11,385.00	 
12:40:48 PM	0.099	10,000	   990.00	XT
12:40:48 PM	0.099	95,000	9,405.00	XT
12:40:48 PM	0.099	177,000    17,523.00	XT

H/S referred to a sale at $0.10


----------



## Purd2

Well well well...I think Z-trader is back.


----------



## hangseng

LOL Purd seems so ..."lerching" around all over the place hahaha

The buy I refer to was a single placement of 5M shares that took out 10c and left around 3M on the buy side. What remains is under 2M now and 1st in the buy queu at 10c


----------



## tech/a

Thought you guys would be all over the latest announcement.
You still a sleep?


----------



## mattryanshares

Your a cheek bugger tech! Thats why i like ya!! haha

PENINSULA ANNOUNCES 33Mlbs U3O8 RESOURCE AT LANCE

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110202/pdf/01147466.pdf


----------



## tech/a

Litmus test for PEN today.

Its NOT making a Profit.
Lots of "Sales" announcements---LOTS.


----------



## hangseng

mattryanshares said:


> Your a cheek bugger tech! Thats why i like ya!! haha
> 
> PENINSULA ANNOUNCES 33Mlbs U3O8 RESOURCE AT LANCE
> 
> http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110202/pdf/01147466.pdf




page 4... 

_"the mineralised potential of the Lance Projects, which is in addition to the JORC-compliant resource, is assessed at between 95 and 145 Mlbs eU3O8."

"In addition" meaning...the potential total resource is the current JORC of 32.95m lbs *plus an extra 95-145m lbs*?_


For some time I have been stating I believed Lance will be over 100M/lbs. The outside current estimated potential is now 180M/lbs and it doesn't include this on page 5...

*"Peninsula controls the majority of the surface and minerals rights in the Oshoto Region and is currently acquiring additional areas that are considered prospective for roll front style uranium mineralisation.*

Note also the increasing Vanadium credits that will serve to lower the Opex and net returns.

People are slowly waking up...and there we have it, the sp rising on the back of a pure fundamental outcome...and the chart rises accordingly pushed along by the many market forces indicated so rightly by others. The chart did not indicate this rise, nor did it make it rise, in fact our chartists were indicating otherwise (in the short term at least). The fundamental reason was the sole cause of the rise, the effect was an increase in buyers.

Being a simple old bloke, with a clear head now after my morning "bridges", my analysis is also getting easier by the day. I predict further increases in sp in the near future, on the back of further fundamentally sound reported reasons.

*Imminent:*

DFS; to be shorty follwed by:
Funding announcement (as stated by PEN); and
RFP outcomes

Although not necessarily imminent, I also expect earlier permit exemption to begin construction.


Have a great day!


----------



## mattryanshares

A few big single buys at 10.5 today....i think!!!

10:33:02 AM 0.105 1,001,516 105,159.18   
10:06:55 AM 0.105 1,088,000 114,240.00   
10:06:55 AM 0.105 500,000 52,500.00   
10:06:54 AM 0.105 767,499 80,587.40


----------



## tech/a

> People are slowly waking up...and there we have it, the sp rising on the back of a pure fundamental outcome...and the chart rises accordingly pushed along by the many market forces indicated so rightly by others. The chart did not indicate this rise, nor did it make it rise, in fact our chartists were indicating otherwise (in the short term at least). The fundamental reason was the sole cause of the rise, the effect was an increase in buyers.




A little early to begin beating ones chest.
Nothing really has happened to PEN.
There is NO CLEAR indication that Supply is being over come.
There is plenty of supply (sellers).
Buyers are being absorbed at 10.5 ish.

The big question which holders "should" be asking is 
Will Buying (demand) over come Supply (Selling).
Currently supply is CLEARLY with the upper hand.
SP cant rise above 10.5--11c

If buyers dry up or become disillusioned with reports but no profit
then sellers will seek lower prices to abandon ship. So buyers now
run a real risk of buying at the high.
I still see 8.4c in the not to distant future.

A clear gap through 11.5c which held--- would alter the technical view.
You may see this Hang seng.
But heaven forbid you may not!





*I dont think it wise to be in flexible with any form of analysis*


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> A little early to begin beating ones chest.
> Nothing really has happened to PEN.
> There is NO CLEAR indication that Supply is being over come.
> There is plenty of supply (sellers).
> Buyers are being absorbed at 10.5 ish.
> 
> The big question which holders "should" be asking is
> Will Buying (demand) over come Supply (Selling).
> Currently supply is CLEARLY with the upper hand.
> SP cant rise above 10.5--11c Would you not think on the latest announcement that that is a reason to continue to hold or perhaps entice others to buy in??
> 
> 
> If buyers dry up or become disillusioned with reports but no profit
> then sellers will seek lower prices to abandon ship. So buyers now
> run a real risk of buying at the high.
> I still see 8.4c in the not to distant future. Do you currently have a buy in price? If it broke the 11.5 price how would it affect your technical view?
> 
> A clear gap through 11.5c which held--- would alter the technical view.
> You may see this Hang seng.
> But heaven forbid you may not!
> 
> View attachment 41140
> 
> 
> *I dont think it wise to be in flexible with any form of analysis*




Hi Tech

i really like your imput to this thread. Just put a few questions there for you when you have time. Im loving this and learning more everyday. Thanks to everyone.


----------



## hangseng

I saw it, see it and I am anything but inflexible.

However I am not concerned one bit and I still don't believe I will require that pie. Even if i did it would be literally a golden opportunity. One I dare say they would vanish in a blink.

Good charting tech/a, as I said I do respect your work. I just don't happen to agree with it at the moment as it completely ignores all fundamental reasoning. I agree, 
_*"I dont think it wise to be in flexible [sic] with any form of analysis"*_

Mate this isn't a who is right or wrong contest I can assure you. However I am firmly of the personal opinion that strong positive fundamentals will drive this stock, and has done to date. Your T/A I am sure is of value to traders in PEN at the moment, however it makes no difference to my strong fundamental view of where PEN is headed. My view is unwavering despite what a chart may indicate, the chart won't drive the sp of the future that I am looking at.

I do see a use for charts at the moment on another stock though. If I think I am right I will post accordingly on that stock. A I said I use T/A for entry into oversold fundamentally sound stocks, I think I may have stumbled across an old oily unloved friend. Perfect for the contrarian in me...


----------



## tech/a

When is there production?
How long before they turn a profit?

Does this concern you?


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> When is there production?
> How long before they turn a profit?
> 
> Does this concern you?





Not one bit tech/a.

PEN is on track for production 1st qtr 2012. All they require is the permits, all of which have been submitted now. Although they are seeking funding on better terms, they have access to enough funding to commence construction (expected to commence around July-Sept) and take them through to production and keep up the exploration work at Lance and Karoo.

With a recorded (funding/Capex) payback period of only 1.7 years with a 13 year mine life (based on last years PFS not the latest DFS about to come out) it places PEN above many of it's peers.

Concerned?....anything but!

Oh by the way buyers just overcame sellers at 10.5 with a BOT leading the buying


----------



## mattryanshares

demand is still increasing!! 

251 buyers for 33,350,023 units  269 sellers for 44,934,838 units  

Note, im a beginner and in no way really know what im doing!!!


----------



## beav

Hey Hangseng,
Warwick Grigor has a payback of capex at 1.2 years not 1.7 years ??
I know i should do the math myself but havnt got time just now.

Cheers
Beav


----------



## hangseng

beav said:


> Hey Hangseng,
> Warwick Grigor has a payback of capex at 1.2 years not 1.7 years ??
> I know i should do the math myself but havnt got time just now.
> 
> Cheers
> Beav




Hi Beav, yes my bad Warwick does state that and I have also stated from PEN reports 1.3yrs from the last PFS. As I am now officially old lol, I will put that down to I have no idea what I was thinking...Apart from to say the original scoping studying I feel certain was 1.7 but that is now outdated. A bit like me 

Now if Warwick is actually correct it raises the question...Has he taken the 1.2 from the latest DFS, or has he to had an "old" moment?

Not a bad day in the paddock today 

Up 10% on increased volume of 30,470,881 and closing above the open price with a BOT trading up to 11c . Nice candle now to don't you think tech/a? But that "supply" still keeps coming in...I wonder how real it actually is at 11c though???

I don't think very real at all, and it will vanish as quick as it appeared...probably around the time of DFS reporting IMO


----------



## tech/a

> A little early to begin beating ones chest.
> Nothing really has happened to PEN.
> There is NO CLEAR indication that Supply is being over come.
> There is plenty of supply (sellers).
> Buyers are being absorbed at 10.5 ish.
> 
> The big question which holders "should" be asking is
> Will Buying (demand) over come Supply (Selling).
> Currently supply is CLEARLY with the upper hand.
> SP cant rise above 10.5--11c
> 
> If buyers dry up or become disillusioned with reports but no profit
> then sellers will seek lower prices to abandon ship. So buyers now
> run a real risk of buying at the high.
> I still see 8.4c in the not to distant future.
> 
> A clear gap through 11.5c which held--- would alter the technical view.
> You may see this Hang seng.
> But heaven forbid you may not!




My opinion has not changed.

Price rising toward resistance on Lower volume is preferable.
You wont get high volume and small rises if sellers dry up.

You'll get either
(1) High volume and Wide range Pushing through resistance---not resisting AT resistance.
(2) Average--low volume with price advancing un hindered.
Similar to price action after 24/11/10

Im not convinced yet that this is going to power through.
I thought todays announcement would be enough to see.
(1) Sellers retreat and hold their positions
(2) Buyers swarm the market.

What I saw was supply taking up all the demand
its only at 11c because of the final auction--10.5 is where the larger majority traded all day.


----------



## hangseng

Agree with your last sentence, it will be very interesting to see how this pans out. Absolutely agree there is significant resistance at 11, however it comes as no surprise to me and I have stated as much.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if PEN trades sideways at the current levels for a while, maybe even to around 9.5 is still possible. In fact I am hoping so, it went up quicker than I could buy. As I said elsewhere last year, I would have been happy if it remained at 4c for quite some time, I was enjoying that. Not that I don't like to see these levels, but obviously my buying capacity is reduced.

Just my view of the world, but thats what makes the market eh tech/a. If we all thought the same there would be no market.


The recent Mineweb article put out by PEN this afternoon may blow all our thinking...However it is one of the many reasons I selected PEN as investment some time ago. This was always coming in my mind, many wrongly assumed the last uranium run was a bubble that wouldn't occur again. I disagreed...

In part:

[_B]Massive uranium supply/demand gap developing[/B]
URANIUM__Speakers at a London conference point to a massive supply gap developing for
uranium with mine output unable to keep up with demand from the huge number of
planned new global nuclear power projects.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 02 Feb 2011
LONDON -
Speaking at the Objective Capital
Americas' Resources Investment
Conference in London yesterday, Ian
Hiscock from market analysis group
CRU Strategies painted a very
positive picture for the global
uranium sector moving ahead.
Hiscock commented that the uranium
price, like that of a number of other
metal and mineral commodities, was
becoming very much a China story -
with that country consuming 17,000
tonnes in 2010 and with a huge
nuclear power development
programme ahead._

Source: Peninsula Energy email to shareholders 2/2/2011 from 
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72103?oid=119696&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Gong Xi Fa Cai
To all my Chinese friends
Holiday for me as well tomorrow


----------



## tech/a

> The recent Mineweb article put out by PEN this afternoon




They have a strong Marketing team eager to keep the Masses up beat!
Works!


----------



## Megacents

The rams are at it again 

Well it was a nice way to wake this morning and read the updated JORC. Been away working so missed the excitement.

In a previous post I asked if any has any info on the YA factility? Any ideas or is it a email/phone call to PEN?

Aprox 33Mlbs and that measured category is slowly growing. The Va is now 1.7Mlbs, nice interjection into the Opex factor.


----------



## hangseng

Megacents said:


> The rams are at it again
> 
> Well it was a nice way to wake this morning and read the updated JORC. Been away working so missed the excitement.
> 
> In a previous post I asked if any has any info on the YA factility? Any ideas or is it a email/phone call to PEN?
> 
> Aprox 33Mlbs and that measured category is slowly growing. The Va is now 1.7Mlbs, nice interjection into the Opex factor.




Spot on in your last sentence Mega, what hasn't sunk in yet is that there is much more to come very soon, and thereafter. 

As to your other query the $50 million equity line facility with YA Global remains in place.

PEN now has over $34M in cash, still no debt and access to $150M funding should they choose to utilise it. They also have open to them alternate preferable funding such as traditional banker funding and offtake agreements. I have no idea what is going to occur, but I do know they are pursuing all options.

Morning tech/a...what's up mate, is the marketing spoiling the chart? 

Here is something to brighten your day though ok, someone agrees with you in part. He like me though believes the best you may see is 9.5c not 8.4. He is an avid T/A'er and doesn't do fundamentals as dorks like me do. He isn't the greatest of commentators, however much of his T/A work pans out true, not all the time but he has a great track record. Just for you, enjoy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJLHLHqrCeY

Have a great day!

And to all my Chinese friends...

*GONG XI FA CHAI!*


----------



## tech/a

No absolutely as expected nothing out of the ordinary.

PEN looks as though its setting up as a take over target.---to me.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> They have a strong Marketing team eager to keep the Masses up beat!
> Works!





Agree. Marketing is an important fundamental aspect that many Spec Companies overlook. PEN management are very switched on in that regard. 

Their announcements are regular, concise, and accurate, and give Investors concrete calculations on the Company's future potential value.  That gives the ability to make a valued judgment as to whether the investment is sound or not.  

With the facts on the table, less assumptions/guesses have to be made ... unlike many Specs, where management embellish the truth simply to accommodate for the next Cap raise 

ps I'm not a fundamental trader, but if you're putting your cash into pre-production Specs, I'd much rather be doing that with ones where the numbers add up. 

Once the numbers add up ..... pick an entry, a projected exit, and a stop loss ... simple


----------



## tech/a

Dont disagree.

Ive come back into this thread after a 350% rise and a stock which currently is having trouble getting rid of supply.

Its not the < $20k lots that have an effect on this stock but the $100k +  holders.
If they hold then supply will dry up.
If they sell price WILL drop.

Right now we have small traders swapping holdings.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Right now we have small traders swapping holdings.




What we have now and have had is a "BOT" pyramid buying. Had it at 10.5, 10c now at 11c. But I also acknowledge in between the BOT there is clear selling of larger quantities at 10.5. Propped for selling into, or what I don't know but it does seem like that at the moment watching it real time at depth.

*Quantity*

1
8
40
200
1,000
5,000
25,000


2
6
33
162
811
4,057
20,283


If you think PEN will get taken over, as a few have indicated. Then you will see one hell of a battle occur. I have an offline rather clever friend here (svengali actually) that has analysed this possibility and I agree completely with his view that it won't happen. Not to say an attempt won't occur, but PEN themselves aren't setting up for a T/O of that I know for certain. PEN management, Gus in particular (as the largest individual shareholder) want to retain 100% ownership of PEN and in fact are looking at aquisitions, not the other way around.

But if a suitor comes along and tries, then watch "supply" dry up and a completely irrational shift upwards in the sp. Make no mistake PEN won't give this gem up easily, as won't a lot of large holders like me. If they want it they will be paying up.


----------



## hangseng

Could this be it?

*Investopedia explains Iceberg Order*
_When large participants, such as institutional investors, need to buy and sell large amounts of securities for their portfolios, they can divide their large orders into smaller parts so that the public sees only a small portion of the order at a time--just as the 'tip of the iceberg' is the only visible portion of a huge mass of ice. By hiding its large size, the iceberg order reduces the price movements caused by substantial changes in a stock's supply and demand. _
source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/icebergorder.asp


----------



## mattryanshares

hangseng said:


> Could this be it?
> 
> *Investopedia explains Iceberg Order*
> _When large participants, such as institutional investors, need to buy and sell large amounts of securities for their portfolios, they can divide their large orders into smaller parts so that the public sees only a small portion of the order at a time--just as the 'tip of the iceberg' is the only visible portion of a huge mass of ice. By hiding its large size, the iceberg order reduces the price movements caused by substantial changes in a stock's supply and demand. _
> source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/icebergorder.asp




Interesting HS

can any one explain why the larger volume sales also get the share @ .105 and the smaller trades are all .110???

0.110 1 0.11   
02:06:00 PM 0.110 4 0.44   
02:05:34 PM 0.110 17 1.87   
02:05:13 PM 0.110 88 9.68   
02:04:52 PM 0.110 440 48.40   
02:04:27 PM 0.110 2,200 242.00   
02:04:05 PM 0.110 4,495 494.45   
02:04:05 PM 0.110 6,506 715.66   
02:03:53 PM 0.105 55,000 5,775.00 XT 
02:03:42 PM 0.110 1 0.11   
02:03:17 PM 0.110 5 0.55   
02:02:53 PM 0.110 25 2.75   
02:02:31 PM 0.110 126 13.86   
02:02:10 PM 0.110 629 69.19   
02:01:48 PM 0.110 3,146 346.06   
02:01:26 PM 0.110 15,729 1,730.19   
02:01:26 PM 0.105 78,647 8,257.94


----------



## tech/a

For ever the optimists.

What if its a massive sell order at 11c???

Thats more likely the case.
Buyers are just being absorbed.
This level is becoming critical.

Think about it.
If buyers kept buying and sellers werent around then price would chase higher.
If its just getting sold into at 11c thats where it will stay.

11c needs to disappear.

What if one of the directors were selling into you guys who are buying at 11c !!!


----------



## mattryanshares

Hartleys Broker report on Pen

http://www.pel.net.au/investor_info/broker_research.phtml.

Lots of info but the bit i liked.

Valuation 
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.17 
3 Mth Price Target $0.14 

Uranium 
1. Peninsula Energy Ltd PEN 0.099 192 Developer Buy


----------



## tech/a

So if you go back over past Hartely's reports everyone of their valuations reach target?
How many fail
How many succeed.
How many do either in which time frame.

Of course you like the report it supports your view.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> For ever the optimists.
> 
> What if its a massive sell order at 11c???
> 
> Thats more likely the case.
> Buyers are just being absorbed.
> This level is becoming critical.
> 
> Think about it.
> If buyers kept buying and sellers werent around then price would chase higher.
> If its just getting sold into at 11c thats where it will stay.
> 
> 11c needs to disappear.
> 
> What if one of the directors were selling into you guys who are buying at 11c !!!




The million dollar question tech. Is it a massive sell order at 11 cents?

Most of the savvy "short term" traders were out of this, firstly on the 7th and the 13th January ......... then the next crew on the 20th and 21st January (on the open). The fact that they jumped back in on the 31st January at 9.5 cents looks telling.

It looks like some of those "31st" traders cashed in yesterday at 10.5 cents, but today they had every opportunity to sell up if they were "nervous" about their position.

I saw "no nerves" today .... One trader "bot dropping" a "couple" of million shares !! No big deal !! ..... If that trader was serious, he could have dumped the lot at 10.5 after the open with no effect on the SP ...... What does that tell us? ....

It tells us, that that particular "trader" still holds a reasonable amount of stock, otherwise he wouldn't have cared about dumping the lot in one go ..... ie. He was taking some profit off the table.

OR ....

He could have been simply selling to his *own* buy orders in the queue at specific times in an attempt to pick up other sellers who might follow his lead 

Personally, I see a lot of the sellers at the 11 cent region as retailers (I am a retailer, so no disrespect intended ... although I'm not a seller !!) ..... 

The traders were very active at the 9.5 area .... They have quickly pushed it above the "difficult" 10 cents area (where retail traders have an advantage of lower increment drops) ...... I'd expect once they have accumulated enough stock, and diminished the backlog of retail traders at 11 cents, they will pull their sell orders and push this to the next level, as they have done at several levels from 4 cents.

9.5 looks very strong, and any prolonged period under that would be a concern. I'm doubtful that will eventuate, assuming the general market remains steady. Of course, I could be totally wrong 

Cheers.


----------



## easylikesunday

I take it your not a fan of PEN tech/a?


----------



## tech/a

easylikesunday said:


> I take it your not a fan of PEN tech/a?




Im a fan of anything which keeps moving.
Im a trader so I dont want to waste time sitting in something thats not moving.
WORSE I dont want to buy into anything that I cant see moving in my direction.

If I were Hang seng with an average entry of 3.6c Id be handling things a little differently (being a technical trader).

Id be out at 11c with a re buy (RIGHT NOW) at 12 c if all turns extremely bullish.
If it doesn't (Id be/am out now) Id be looking to bank profit and waiting for a clear re entry at a lower price.
Being a trader I like Minimum risk.

Hang seng is happy the way he's investing in PEN and if he is correct and he could well be it could be life changing if his 2 million shares (Quick calc with 150000 at 11.0c bought and averaged at 3.6c) reach $10 +

I will at sometime "possibly" join the party but not yet.

I'm just not seeing Strength.




My opinion is in the* NOW.*
Nothing more.


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> So if you go back over past Hartely's reports everyone of their valuations reach target?
> How many fail
> How many succeed.
> How many do either in which time frame.
> 
> Of course you like the report it supports your view.




Actually tech i posted this up here so people could refer to it and i'd know if it was good or bad!! Im a green horn!!


----------



## tech/a

Just to throw a little more complex analysis into the mix.
Elliott Wave indicates a pullback to 8.4c or as low as 7.2c with a continuation expected of the completion of PEN's 5 wave impulse move.
That continuation is expected to reach 13.5 to 16.5c.
(In the very simple terms explanation).
The analysis is still valid as price hasn't taken out the current high.

Corrections are normally 3 waves in the wave 4 here and the wave 4 is often a triangle so expect this to buggerise around 8.4 to 11c for a while.

Click to expand




Pretty isn't it!


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Hang seng is happy the way he's investing in PEN and if he is correct and he could well be it could be life changing if his 2 million shares





The first part is right, I am very happy in fact. The second part isn't though, on both counts. My life won't change, just my bank account, nor is the guesstimate correct. Nice try though.


----------



## Megacents

hangseng said:


> As to your other query the $50 million equity line facility with YA Global remains in place.
> 
> PEN now has over $34M in cash, still no debt and access to $150M funding should they choose to utilise it. They also have open to them alternate preferable funding such as traditional banker funding and offtake agreements. I have no idea what is going to occur, but I do know they are pursuing all options.




Thanks Hanseng for the reply. 

I reckon the off take agreements will easily allow funding to be put in place. Get the loan and pay it back via the yellow cake sales, plus Va.

I suppose they did not get Holden for nothing.


----------



## Megacents

mattryanshares said:


> Actually tech i posted this up here so people could refer to it and i'd know if it was good or bad!! Im a green horn!!




It is good to post info of that nature mattryanshares. Hartely's make some calculations and come up with a share price. The general info about the company is what is interesting.

I wonder what today will bring?


----------



## hangseng

Well tech/a I believe we have game on...


*17,357,805 *taken out at open and there was only around 3M on the buy side just before open. So offscreen over 14,000,000 shares bought up to take out 11c.

I have been in PEN since 2006 and that is by far the largest single buy I have seen to date.

I do believe that is demand overtaking supply in the very best way possible. Yes I am "forever the optimist" in regard to PEN and with damn good fundamental reasons and oh so comfortable with my rather large investment in PEN.

11.5 being taken to as I type.


----------



## barney

barney said:


> I'd expect once they have accumulated enough stock, and diminished the backlog of retail traders at 11 cents, they will pull their sell orders and push this to the next level, as they have done at several levels from 4 cents.




Or they might just line wipe 11 cents 

Those several million+ buy orders don't look like average retail traders to me!  The fact that they are happy to buy into a congested market depth above 11 also indicates they are not day traders .... Big buyers + Investors = Strong Support levels.

Once they get enough backup on 11, it would not surprise to see 11.5 get line wiped as well ..... Looks good.


----------



## mattryanshares

So why did this happen?
Tech/s anaylisis was good and supported by the tube video? The fundamentals haven't changed? No new announcements? The Hartley report came out after close yesterday andwasnt even market market sensitive? Or did it raise the profile or awareness level to get new traders to research last night and buy in this morning??
Any ideas though I'm very happy I was hoping to get some more below the 9 cent mark!!


----------



## tech/a

Hmmmm

Wouldnt be so sure.
Buyers absorbed 11c
but havent gone on with it.
There are NO NEW highs.

However if this absobtion continues and this
clearing of 11c certainly indicates that sellers
are being absorbed----then Hang Seng will be
celebrating for at least a week!

Lets see if we have a strong or weak close.
Early morning auctions need to hold the day!


----------



## hangseng

mattryanshares said:


> So why did this happen?
> Tech/s anaylisis was good and supported by the tube video? The fundamentals haven't changed? No new announcements? The Hartley report came out after close yesterday andwasnt even market market sensitive? Or did it raise the profile or awareness level to get new traders to research last night and buy in this morning??
> Any ideas though I'm very happy I was hoping to get some more below the 9 cent mark!!




Yes the T/A was good, no doubt at all, it was just wrong IMO. Why I have stated, it ignores fundamental reasoning.

Matt T/A is the driver of a share price, it merely analyses what "could be".

The announcement on the 24th was outstanding, also the Karoo drilling commenced the same day, the fact the world didn't light up on that day means nothing. We have had a BOT on PEN ever since and we have all asked why. We just found out why this morning IMO.

DFS is not that far away, *the latest drill results aren't included in the Jorc resource *update, neither is the vanadium metallurgical testing.

PEN has 33M/lbs of uranium from Lance alone and that is *only 10% of the leases *they hold, do the maths mate. Also the latest results coming out have been outside the historical resource area, that is never before explored. PEN has proven the new lease areas are an extension of the know historical resource. Mate this one paragraph alone demonstrates the massive upside potential of Lance. All reported by PEN.

Matt I could go on why what happened this morning, but someone wanted to buy a large number of shares and they did. Go back over the last couple of weeks and you will see other large single buys, not as big as this but big none the less. They won't be the last.

IMO we will see all up to 13.5 taken out in a similar fashion, with a delay at each level as has been occurring. This allows them to soak up the last of the impatient holders and any others for whatever reason. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the BOT back again today, chipping away at 11.5.

The chart will follow...


----------



## mattryanshares

hangseng said:


> Yes the T/A was good, no doubt at all, it was just wrong IMO. Why I have stated, it ignores fundamental reasoning.
> 
> Matt T/A is the driver of a share price, it merely analyses what "could be".Agee mate but apparently its still saying it could drop so not a reson to buy today att 11.5?????
> 
> The announcement on the 24th was outstanding, also the Karoo drilling commenced the same day, the fact the world didn't light up on that day means nothing. We have had a BOT on PEN ever since and we have all asked why. We just found out why this morning IMO.Whats a bot???Bottom of share price???
> 
> DFS is not that far away, *the latest drill results aren't included in the Jorc resource *update, neither is the vanadium metallurgical testing.
> 
> PEN has 33M/lbs of uranium from Lance alone and that is *only 10% of the leases *they hold, do the maths mate. Also the latest results coming out have been outside the historical resource area, that is never before explored. PEN has proven the new lease areas are an extension of the know historical resource. Mate this one paragraph alone demonstrates the massive upside potential of Lance. All reported by PEN.This has been out for a while, or is there always a lag from an announcement til the share price catches up???
> 
> Matt I could go on why what happened this morning, but someone wanted to buy a large number of shares and they did. Go back over the last couple of weeks and you will see other large single buys, not as big as this but big none the less. They won't be the last.
> 
> IMO we will see all up to 13.5 taken out in a similar fashion, with a delay at each level as has been occurring. This allows them to soak up the last of the impatient holders and any others for whatever reason. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the BOT back again today, chipping away at 11.5.
> 
> The chart will follow...




Cheers hang sang

Im taking all this in and i want to try to understand why things happen so i will be able to use this in the future on different shares at different time. 
I just find it hard to believe that all these 11.5 cent buyers today didnt buy over the last few days at a cheaper price? If they were fundamental investors surely they would of?

if they were technichal investors than why buy in today?? Tech says its still not showing thats its going to break 11.5??

So for some other reason they decided today to buy in??? A couple of single players buying 1000000 shares at 11.5? Were they just waiting and hoping it would drop and it didnt or did something else trigger there need to buy now attitude??
The fundamentals were all there and never changed and the tech says you should be able to buy it cheaper in a day or so??? 
Its great for me, im stoked im a holder in this share not only because ive made a little money but because the info on this thread gives anaylisis both tech and fundamental that i can check and learn from. 
Thanks to all who posted!!!


----------



## tech/a

> Yes the T/A was good, no doubt at all, it was just wrong IMO. Why I have stated, it ignores fundamental reasoning.




Its ignoring nothing.
Its* SHOWING EXACTLY *whats happening *NOW*.
It doesnt predict.(Well my for of T/A doesnt).
It can pretty clearly INDICATE the next 3-5 periods.
Elliott can also indicate how the current chart structure could pan out.
If your a trader having an "indication" of where your going is a good thing to have.
So Far its done that pretty well.
Ive also presented a balanced view



> Matt T/A is the driver of a share price, it merely analyses what "could be".[/quote'
> 
> Your right its not ------but the perception of participants in the issue.
> That *perception* will drive price which will be reflected in the chart.
> 
> This warrble on and on infititum about Fundamentally inherent analysis being the sole driver has me asking *this question*
> 
> *"Why have you ridden this stock from 10c down to around 2c??"*
> 
> If Fundamentals are *THAT* good how is it that your perception varied SO much from others as it fell!!??
> 
> As for PEN its still in a range and dealing with Supply and demand
> Until that pans out Ill WATCH.
> If Its going to $10 I have time!!


----------



## hangseng

You may also ask but don't, why I bought the majority of my holding sub 4c. Why did I by at 1.8? Why did I continue to buy?

Because of what is happening now and what will continue to happen. Of which I believed would happen due to fundamentals, not T/A.

Your right T/A is great for traders and I am right in thast it aids investors as i indicated previously. Great that your a trader, however your call of 8.4 is flawed.


----------



## barney

mattryanshares said:


> I just find it hard to believe that all these 11.5 cent buyers today didnt buy over the last few days at a cheaper price? If they were fundamental investors surely they would of?
> 
> if they were technichal investors than why buy in today?? Tech says its still not showing thats its going to break 11.5??




Hi Mat,  I gave a layman's "simplistic" description of the last few days price action in post 761. It may make more sense today if you have another read.

There are all sorts of reasons why people buy and sell, and they may all have a slightly different agenda  at any given time.

PEN is shaping up as one of those rare "perfect storm" stocks. Its forward looking fundamentals (future potential value) are excellent, and it is a very liquid stock .... therefore it is attracting the attention of both traders and investors simultaneously.

The *large* Traders set the "short term" price levels, and the Investors set the *longer term* support/resistance levels.  ie The traders buy and sell at any productive level, but the Investors are generally only buying/holding. 

Traders don't generally care whether the stock is trading at 8 cents or 11 cents  ... just as long as they are using momentum in their favour  eg.tech/a

Investors who see long term value in the stock  eg Hang Seng, will continue to buy at any level that they still perceive value.

Why did todays price/volume jump?   Yesterday there was a wall of sellers at 11 cents. Any larger holders who wanted out had to drop a level to 10.5 .... There was ample market depth for any sellers to sell into at that level if they wanted to, but only one seller of any volume wanted out and he was finished way before the close.  

It was the lack of selling which was the key to todays rise. The traders simply "took out" the 11 cent level because there was no point waiting any longer.  Maybe a lot of those 11 cent buyers this morning have cashed out ..... nobody knows ... but there is now a lot of buyers locked in at 11.5 cents as well.  

If some of the large 11.5 sell orders in the queue are "furphies", then there is every chance that we will see 12 cents before the close .... If the sells are real, then maybe there will be a bit more supply to get through .... either way, the price action has been positive.

Hope that made some sense


----------



## hangseng

Barney, top of the class from me.

What an outstanding explanation.


----------



## tech/a

> Great that your a trader, however your call of 8.4 is flawed.




*Not yet its not.*If the high is taken out then the analysis needs to be re assessed.
I suppose also the possibility of 13.5c and 17.5c as per analysis is also "Flawed?"


I just happened to be watching depth and noticed buyers take out ALL 11.5c
It then read 62,000 Buyers at 11.5c and 62 million sellers at 12c

Then almost instantly in came 5 and 3 odd million at 11.5c to sell.
Now 10 mill buy at 11c and 8.1 mill sell at 11.5c.Strangley this figure now remains at about that 8.1-8.5 mill after each sale.!!

So Im seeing selling *INTO* buyers.



> You may also ask but don't, why I bought the majority of my holding sub 4c. Why did I by at 1.8? Why did I continue to buy?
> 
> Because of what is happening now and what will continue to happen. Of which I believed would happen due to fundamentals, not T/A.




No I ask why you didnt sell at 10c and watch profit dissolve.

Fundamentals themselves dont drive the price the *perception* of investors relative to the fundamentals drive the share price.
Why isnt it $5 now? Because its not producing and a lot could happen between now and then.
Its not making a profit and perception CAN change.

Why do stocks fall when massive profits are recorded??---Perception.
Charts record perception if you *KNOW HOW *to read them.

Perception changes and so too does chart analysis!

Ofcourse if tech analysis says buy I'll be buying.
I wont be caring about Fundamentals either only the perception reflected in price.

Each to their own.
I hope this turns into a Poseidon for you and for me too!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble

12.30 to $328 a share!!

This also supports my thinking on the Phsychology of trading pennies.
Particularly mining stocks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bubble
*Worth the read.*


----------



## J&M

This really is a good thread with both points of view 
I really like to read Tech/a  summery of this stock 
and HS reasons why he thinks this stock will increase in value even though they are not as yet producing anything and making a $$$ or 2 


I do have a small holding  

Cheers
James


----------



## tech/a

Youll note that todays volume is made up of many many small trades.
130 off for this mornings 17 mill and 123 for the 12 million at lunch time.





I dont have exact course of trades so can anyone confirm sinngle buys of over 1 million shares?


----------



## hangseng

tech/a, we are getting closer to agreement than we have ever been.



> "Fundamentals themselves dont drive the price the perception of investors relative to the fundamentals drive the share price."




I could not agree more with the above statement. Market phsycology is one uncanny beast and without doubt the most difficult to assess IMO. T/A and fundamental analysis are childs play compared to that aspect.

I hold I believe 8.4 is not going to occur, and I state clearly my opinion that we have today seen strong evidence of a big player prepared to pay up. over 17M shares bought at open and 14m of those from an offscreen buyer not in the bid line.

If that is a retail trader I will eat my hat, maybe even your ducks hat, of which I like and need to buy one. What will be telling is the next top 20 listing. 

Basically mate I suppose what I am saying is the ongoing FA/TA chat is pointless, as we have totally different styles of which work for both of us. Not that one is better than the other, it is a personal preference.

When PEN went from 10c to the lows, I had already sold half of my shares. My buy price was way below 10c and I took some off the table at 11c, so losses I had at the lows weren't that great...that was in 2007. In 2007 I wasn't a large investor, I am now. You (wrongly) assume far too much with that line.

The GFC then afforded me an opportunity of a lifetime, and I am sure many others. Not only with PEN but many stocks far better than PEN at the time such as ABY, SDL, EHL etc. Sold off mercilessly and irrationally, on what you rightly point out being market perception. It was my fundamental analysis and contrarian view that led me into what I now have, an SMSF to behold mostly with PEN. I do wonder why the experts in the industry that manage the majority of the countries superfunds, couldn't achieve even 50% of what I have done. My old fund manager is still struggling along, I monitor them to see where i would have been compared to what i am achieving. The ATO could never argue I'm not meeting the sole purpose test of increasing the funds assets. They could use my fund as a benchmark, albeit I concede at the moderate-high risk strategy end.

So yes I am extremely happy not only with PEN, but my methods of accumulating and investing. I don't like paying excessive brokerage, so I trade as little as possible. I aslo like the tax advantages short term traders don't enjoy.


----------



## boff

J&M said:


> This really is a good thread with both points of view




I second that. Bravo to all the participants in this discussion. You can be assured there's a significant number of us out here listening intently to all opinions presented.


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> Youll note that todays volume is made up of many many small trades.
> 130 off for this mornings 17 mill and 123 for the 12 million at lunch time.
> 
> View attachment 41196
> 
> 
> I dont have exact course of trades so can anyone confirm sinngle buys of over 1 million shares?




01:02:24 PM 0.115 1,000,000 115,000.00  
01:00:51 PM 0.115 1,000,000 115,000.00   
10:07:58 AM 0.110 800,000 88,000.00   
10:06:52 AM 0.110 1,000,000 110,000.00   
10:06:52 AM 0.110 1,000,000 110,000.00   
10:06:52 AM 0.110 1,000,000 110,000.00   

These were the largest single buys, i think its what you want?


----------



## tech/a

> and 14m of those from an offscreen buyer not in the bid line.




If that was a cross trade then a single SELLER was found.
He didnt agree that he should hold them.

Mind you it could have been a small part opf his overall holding!

But see my point its not cut and dry this stock is exchanging scrip and NOT making new highs

WHY??

SUPPLY and plenty of it.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> WHY??
> 
> SUPPLY and plenty of it.





You said that at 11c and that was taken out convincingly, with over 17.4M shares at open.

Now we have the same occurring at 11.5, yes a lot of (not unexpected) supply, however the DEMAND is strong and convincingly coming in, and continues to. If there isn't more dropped into 11c, and today there has been hardly any, then 11.5c will go the same way as 11c did this morning.

Simply a transfer from the impatient to the patient.


----------



## beav

Hi TechA

As a technical analyst how would you identify a bubble given it refers to the price of a company and its actual value ?

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

> Simply a transfer from the impatient to the patient.




Could well be.
But As I sit here and glance over every now and again.
Sellers seem to be ALWAYS at 8-8.6 mill.
Its just feeding them.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Could well be.
> But As I sit here and glance over every now and again.
> Sellers seem to be ALWAYS at 8-8.6 mill.
> Its just feeding them.




And the buyers keep eating them...convincingly. Why pay more when the sellers are willing to feed them cheaper 

Sellers now at 5.3M


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> Barney, top of the class from me.
> 
> What an outstanding explanation.





Thanks Hang,  I'm glad a man of your stature found some value in it

With regard to all the twoing and froing re the SP ..... Long termers in this stock know how the traders push it around .... Its been going on pretty much this way since 3.5 cents a few months ago.

There is supply coming through today, but a lot of that is just the smart fellas who bought the open at 11, and on-selling all (*I doubt all*), or part (*most likely*) of their purchase.

Mathematics is a wonderful thing

Buy 1 million at 11 cents ..... $110,000  

Sell 900,000 at 11.5 .... $103,500 

The remaining 100,000 then has an average buy price of *6.5 cents*  (less brokerage of course)  

I call that *smart* accumulation, and if had a truckload of cash thats exactly what I'd be doing.

Selling/Supply isn't always what it seems


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Thanks Hang,  I'm glad a man of your stature found some value in it
> 
> With regard to all the twoing and froing re the SP ..... Long termers in this stock know how the traders push it around .... Its been going on pretty much this way since 3.5 cents a few months ago.
> 
> There is supply coming through today, but a lot of that is just the smart fellas who bought the open at 11, and on-selling all (*I doubt all*), or part (*most likely*) of their purchase.
> 
> Mathematics is a wonderful thing
> 
> Buy 1 million at 11 cents ..... $110,000
> 
> Sell 900,000 at 11.5 .... $103,500
> 
> The remaining 100,000 then has an average buy price of *6.5 cents*  (less brokerage of course)
> 
> I call that *smart* accumulation, and if had a truckload of cash thats exactly what I'd be doing.
> 
> Selling/Supply isn't always what it seems




hahaha looks great until one day you drop 1c before you can get out!
Been done before and at the peril of those who dont have the cash.
I call that dumb.

Yes your right that there is churning.

*beav*

To your question.
Have a look at LEG
Dropped halved a 300% rise in a few days

Imagine trying the "Smart accumulation plan"
on 31/12---suicide.

To PEN
It certainly looks like accumulation
Its taking a bit to exhaust but *IF it does *then it will fly---for a while at least.


----------



## TheAbyss

Must be a great thing for Warwick Grigor to write up his recommendations for U308 plays and personally recommend to his readers the company he is a director of and a shareholder.

Be interesting readng if he is a seller into the run created by his own writings in the press of late. 

Links below to an article in the Australian stating Grigor likes Pen and also to the last Hartleys report which lists Grigor in the directors.

Call me suspicious if you like but i have seen paid for press articles burn unsuspecting speculators before.

Having said that Pen does look ok on the surface but i will stick to the sidelines on this one.

Good luck to all

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-uranium-winners/story-e6frg9ex-1225991017887

http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--ahniushohh.pdf


----------



## barney

barney said:


> I call that smart accumulation, and *if had a truckload of cash* thats exactly what I'd be doing.






tech/a said:


> Been done before and at the peril of those who *dont have the cash*.




You obviously missed the bit about the truckload of cash:.



tech/a said:


> hahaha looks great until one day you drop 1c before you can get out!




Actually if you (not you personally) have the cash (and the ability to trade), its far less risky than taking a normal breakout position .....

ie. How far under your average position trade do you generally set your stop loss ..... generally a lot more than 1 cent  (rhetorical question ... no need to answer!)

The professional traders are the ones making the market. ... they are not at its mercy like you and I.  Obviously as retail traders we cannot move the market.






tech/a said:


> I call that dumb.




Professional traders who are accumulating can minimize risk by scaling in and out of positions ... and on selling part positions to lower their initial outlay.

If you intend to invest $X in a  "Y" stock, then only investing $X/5 or $X/10 at various levels with the intention of on selling  Y/2 or whatever is applicable at designated levels, you can spread the risk.

I am sure you wouldn't try and suggest that none of the 17 million shares that were bought on the open, would have been on sold at 11.5 for the rest of the .... would you


----------



## beav

Hi Abbyss,
So is it the fact the Warwick communicated his positive opinion of a company he is a director of enough for you to write that company off as an investment ??
In his latest report on the uranium sector he talks of one company being overvalued due to its mangements 'promotional' style, it would make him a bit of a hypocrite if thats what your suggesting he's up to.
Me personally - I think he judges companies on their merits.

TechA
I was referring to your link about 'bubbles' in wikipedia
your comment re. LEG doenst really give me an idea how you as a technical analyst would identify that a company was in a 'bubble' ie. over valued
I know you know you didnt answer the question though


----------



## hangseng

All the banter aside one thing is a stand out in the discussion with PEN since mid 2010.

Whilst many, as is happening again here now, have come and goneon various forums  stating there concerns (some genuine, some not) over PEN. *The stock has reason consistently from sub 4c to now 11.5.*

Maybe time for a news flash...

Regurgitating old concerns that have been done to death and proven false time and time again serves no purpose at all. Again we have a concern over Grigors BGF reports. Anyone that has done any level of detailed reseacrh on PEN will realise actually how conservative he has been in past reports and again in the latest report.

We also had the Hartleys banter and the obvious fact Richard Simpson is Gus's brother. So thos reports are no good as well, oh and let's throw in for good measure as a throw away line Richard is probably a car salesman (or the like) without any education. What a load of crock that was.

The RCR begin reporting positively on PEN...oh hang on that's no good either as it is "paid" research of the uranium industry and peers.

Look at the company and it's REAL progress, this is no flash in the pan fly by nighter.

It is something of a rarity I accept. A junior explorer, now heading from advanced explorer to early producer. Earlier than many of the more favoured uranium companies that had little more than rock chip samples and went nowhere.


Some people really need to wake up, get a little go in them and get a life. Not the whole world is bad nor corrupt as is being implied. It borders on offensive and smacks of little more than ongoing baseless mud slinging.


News flash....PEN is once again looking outstanding, as is the daily and weekly charts.


----------



## motorway

beav said:


> Hi Abbyss,
> So is it the fact the Warwick communicated his positive opinion of a company he is a director of enough for you to write that company off as an investment ??
> In his latest report on the uranium sector he talks of one company being overvalued due to its mangements 'promotional' style, it would make him a bit of a hypocrite if thats what your suggesting he's up to.
> Me personally - I think he judges companies on their merits.
> 
> TechA
> I was referring to your link about 'bubbles' in wikipedia
> your comment re. LEG doenst really give me an idea how you as a technical analyst would identify that a company was in a 'bubble' ie. over valued
> I know you know you didnt answer the question though




Price rising faster than exponential

eg A curved  line on a semi log chart 

is the first half of a technical definition of a bubble move.

The second half relates to technical signs of instability..

One who has explored this in modern times
is Didier Sornette

Motorway


----------



## tech/a

> Some people really need to wake up, get a little go in them and get a life. Not the whole world is bad nor corrupt as is being implied. It borders on offensive and smacks of little more than ongoing baseless mud slinging.




Are you referring to my un biased technical commentary!!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Have a look at LEG
> Dropped halved a 300% rise in a few days
> 
> *Imagine trying the "Smart accumulation plan"
> on 31/12---suicide.*




Fortunately I missed this little jibe the first time round tech, so I'll only hit you with one barrel instead of two !!

As for LEG on the 31st December, the large traders obviously bought the open to push the price up (as they had done on the day before) and sold into willing buyers for anything up to around a 30% profit on the day ...... Only the retailers who were buying the spike after the 30% rise were going to get into trouble.

No offense old mate, but your jibe was way off the target, and any trader worth his salt would have made money on both the 30th and 31st on LEG.... and you know it ... I hope

ps "Smart accumulators" generally do a bit of *fundamental* research on stocks they intend to accumulate ...... I know ... its a dirty word:


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Are you referring to my un biased technical commentary!!





Lol ....see, you know you've been bad ... now you're getting paranoid


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Are you referring to my un biased technical commentary!!




Not at all mate, to the contrary, as strange as it may seem to you I enjoy our banter 

Just because we don't see eye to eye, doesn't mean I don't like your T/a work here. In fact the opposite, it has been valued over time, not always correct (same with me), however valued none the less.

Not sure about the unbiassed though


----------



## Purd2

Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN. Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.
Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker. 
Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL


----------



## mattryanshares

This is wrong to victomise any one or attack anyone. Its friday so maybe people have had a few, i know i have.

How ever there are many here, some quietly watching others not so quite, who are hanging on and learning on, everything that is said by HS and tech and others on this thread.
There will be what is thought of as to a winner and a looser from all this banter but it will only be contained to this one stock. No one nows where this stock will be in 2 days let alone 1 year. 
There is no need to bring personalitly, personnel opinion or bias into this debate. I think its fantastic that these two guys are going (somewhat) head to head. There is so much to learn from this debate from a new comers point of view that to have it spoiled because someone doesnt agree with anothers point of view is ludicrous. 
Let time roll on and eventually there will be a "so called winner" how ever i dont think there is a need for name calling or agro or anything else. let the stock do its thing and the Ã«xperts or seasoned traders give there honest opinion!
Rant over, Tech, H/S and others please stand up many are listening!


----------



## easylikesunday

Im proud to say I hold PEN. Obviously I dont agree with some of the points made here or I would'nt have brought the stock!

However I would be a fool IMO to not want to hear both sides of the argument. 

It just gives you more information on your investment, and really we are getting both a fundamental AND a technical analysis on the stock. Cant ask for much more than that!

As long as it doesn't turn personal, I said let em at it! 

Round 2.. DING DING!


----------



## barney

Purd2 said:


> Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN. Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.
> Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker.
> Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL





It could be:-

..tech vs.Hang Seng
.....:samurai:

OR ..perhaps


tech vs Hang Seng
 ...:axt:



Or .. perhaps tech will pick up more PEN shares at 8.4 cents and it will be ... 

tech+Hang Seng
..:bier:


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

Purd2 said:


> Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN. Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.
> Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker.
> Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL




Mate ease up. That's completely uncalled for and incredibly rude and immature. Both Tech/a and HangSeng have valid arguments supporting their view. Not everyone will view a stock the same way and the pettiness and immaturity of you and others here has been amazing. 

At least HangSeng has had the decency to acknowledge Tech/a's different opinion and both are sticking to their guns (as they should). Regardless of the outcome you should be happy that such an experienced trader (Tech/a) and fundie (HangSeng) are willing to pull out all stops with their analysis and prevent their views for all to see and provide counter-arguments rather than stoop to pathetic, derogatory comments posted by an immature and crass individual.


----------



## beav

'immature and crass individual'
did you just stoop KJM ? 

its been a fun week have a good weekend all.


----------



## yuro

My first post here , had a read through past posts and the quality is excellent! I hope all are enjoying the ride PEN is taking us on. 


I attended the meeting today and come out feeling even better about my investment than I thought possible.

As Hangseng often says “so much to look forward too.”

Someone asked about NRC permit timelines, Gus of course could not commit himself to any specific timeframe but emphasised the approach taken by PEN. Tony Simpson was well recieved at NRC head quarters recently when there to offer company support for the review process, outsourcing some of the reviews with the tab to be picked up by PEN. They liked the idea and it would be money very well spent if it comes about. Just how proactive is PEN?

I asked about Karoo. Some historical holes have been cleaned out and logged, others have been “twinned” to confirm the grades. There is at least one RC rig drilling and I know they can knock out some footage at a very fast rate. We can expect some results soon. Gus spoke about the known grades and how the resource is near surface. I personally think Karoo will be Lance’s big brother.

Early construction permit cannot be applied for until NRC accept the request for a source material license. The early construction permit will be applied for then.

I asked if any acquisition's were in the pipeline, Gus replied “I can’t comment on that.”

RFP was mentioned and I got the impression that we will hear some news on that soon as well. Long term and around the $80 mark for part production.

I also asked Alf Gillman, after the meeting, about the local green groups in Wyoming. PEN has been very pro-active with them as well. The last question from the most vocal one was “how many jobs will there be?â


----------



## barney

yuro said:


> My first post here , had a read through past posts and the quality is excellent! I hope all are enjoying the ride PEN is taking us on.
> 
> 
> I attended the meeting today and come out feeling even better about my investment than I thought possible.
> 
> As Hangseng often says “so much to look forward too.”




Cheers Yuro .... Your input is very much appreciated.

ps Are you having any trouble keeping the smile off your face!!


----------



## Kash Buk

Yuro
Well done for your questioning of Gus at the meeting today.
I noticed you left the meeting with a smile on your face that was as wide as everybody else who was in attendance.
I guess the best summary of the meeting was a remark I overheard by 3 shareholders who sat together. They all asked a few questions at the meeting.

At the end of the meeting they looked at each other and said " Well we better buy more shares"

Bring on Karoo !!!!!!!


----------



## tech/a

Purd2 said:


> Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN.




not right at the moment but as i have posted that could alter.



> Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.




H/S isnt an object of wrath he has a strong fundamental opinion with a bias due to his position thats fine---i'm sure we'd both enjoy a beer and a laugh---hopefully someday that will happen---when he pulls up his Liner on the beach out front!



> Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker.
> Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL




Have to agree that this comment could only come from a young inexperienced snapper.
The view is a technical one one which has both encompassed the positive and the "shorter term" negative side of the trade.
The analysis still stands and whether 8.4c is reached or 13.5c is reached on the up side---the commentary is currently focused around the interesting battle in this current consolidation.

If it breaks out this level is likely to then act as very strong support.

If it fails then this area is likely to act as very strong resistance.



> No offense old mate, but your jibe was way off the target, *and any trader worth his salt would have made money on both the 30th and 31st on LEG.... and you know it ... I hope*




Oh I agree and I was one of them.

I wasn't meaning it to be a jibe?? I'm lost as to what your saying.

I am glad I make your Spice rack.
Click to expand---if interested.





Not bad for a few days.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> I wasn't meaning it to be a jibe?? I'm lost as to what your saying.




There was no offence taken tech, and I'm not looking to rehash yesterdays banter, but we obviously disagree that professional traders/Investors who wish to *accumulate* stock, buy large parcels of shares and on-sell X amount (at various price points) to lower their base entry level and minimize risk. 

I happen to see that as smart accumulation, and you see it as dumb .... no point arguing about it.

I'm actually more concerned that you don't remember as far back as yesterday:  



tech/a said:


> Oh I agree and I was one of them.
> 
> I am glad I make your Spice rack.
> Click to expand---if interested.
> 
> View attachment 41203
> 
> 
> Not bad for a few days.




Spice rack 
5K ... the trade was good.


----------



## Megacents

yuro said:


> My first post here , had a read through past posts and the quality is excellent! I hope all are enjoying the ride PEN is taking us on.
> 
> 
> I attended the meeting today and come out feeling even better about my investment than I thought possible.
> 
> RFP was mentioned and I got the impression that we will hear some news on that soon as well. Long term and around the $80 mark for part production.




Thanks alot for the info. That RPS and $80 dollars sounds and looks nice as it really puts some fire under the PFS figures.


----------



## tech/a

> I happen to see that as smart accumulation, and you see it as dumb .... no point arguing about it.




Nothing wrong with the method.
But like everything---when it comes off your a genius.
When it doesn't its less than genius.


----------



## thestevo888

This would have to be the most popular thread on the forum for the past week - great work to all! It's been most interesting and even amusing at times.

A quick question to those on the "fundie" side of the divide... in the latest Hartley's broker report the figure of 60cps was bandied about. I only read through it once, so I might have missed something obvious, but was that supposed to be in reference to 2012, 2015 or even 2020? No dates seem to be mentioned in connection with the possible price. Thoughts anyone?
Cheers, Steve.


----------



## mattryanshares

thestevo888 said:


> This would have to be the most popular thread on the forum for the past week - great work to all! It's been most interesting and even amusing at times.
> 
> A quick question to those on the "fundie" side of the divide... in the latest Hartley's broker report the figure of 60cps was bandied about. I only read through it once, so I might have missed something obvious, but was that supposed to be in reference to 2012, 2015 or even 2020? No dates seem to be mentioned in connection with the possible price. Thoughts anyone?
> Cheers, Steve.




http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--ahniushohh.pdf

Revisiting the Upside Case >60cps Possible
There has been some dilution since we last visited the upside potential of the
Company; however, the spot uranium price has increased by over 75% since
that time. Given the 150mlb potential resource in South Africa and potential of
80mlb from the USA results in a possible upside valuation of >60cps using an
average $ per lb of US$7.80. This does not factor in additional upside potential
from growth opportunities that may be facilitated by the presence of Pala or
further increases in the uranium price. Achievement of a valuation approaching
this potential is by no means easy; however, management have a strong track
record of delivery.

Share Price Valuation (NAV) $m $/share
 Ross/Barber @ 10% 152.1 0.05
 Exploration (Lance/Karoo) 313.8 0.10
Cash 32.0 0.01
 Debt 0.0 0.00
Equity Capital 35.0 0.01
Corp Admin (20.0) (0.01)
Options 20.6 0.01
Total 533.5 0.17

Valuation 
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.17 
3 Mth Price Target $0.14


----------



## mattryanshares

Hartleys previous reports.

Jan 2011
Valuation Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.15 
3 Mth Price Target $0.12

Dec 2010
Valuation
 Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.11 
3 Mth Price Target $0.09 

Oct 2010
Valuation 
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.11 
3 Mth Price Target $0.09 Actual High in Jan2011 .115

Sept 2010
Valuation
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real$0.11
6 Mth Price Target$0.09  Feb high .115

Aug 2010
Valuation
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real$0.11
6 Mth Price Target$0.09

May 2010
Share price  .034
6 Mth target .089 Nov actual high .067

Jan 2010
Share price .052
6 Mth target .10 Actual july high .037

So yes as a holder i like the latest hartleys report and i gues they havent been doing to badly in relation to PEN over the last 12 months. Lets hope ther still on the money.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Nothing wrong with the method.
> But like everything---when it comes off your a genius.
> When it doesn't its less than genius.




Totally agree ..... and genii are a rare commodity



thestevo888 said:


> A quick question to those on the "fundie" side of the divide... in the latest Hartley's broker report the figure of 60cps was bandied about.




I'm no fundie Stevo, and I'm sure Hang Seng and others will be in to give an opinion.

The 60 cents per share was an upside scenario based on Wyoming achieving 80 mlb and Karoo (the "theoretically" unknown) achieving 150 mlb ..... so it is a forward looking projection assuming certain production criteria is met ...

Will a 60 cent SP be achieved in the *near term* ..... thats unrealistic ....  

Will 60 cps be achieved in the longer term .. 60 cents would give PEN a market cap of a $Billion+ .......PDN have a market cap of $3.7 Billion  .....

My fundamentals are simplistic .... Do I think the PEN management can get this Co to a third of PDN's MC over the next few years based on their forward projections of Income production? .. (no brainer for me

Hartleys latest report indicates Karoo (which is in its infant stages) has a projected 150 mlb 

How can they make this assumption based on current knowledge?? .... Sometimes we have to read between the lines ..... 

Management (who commission Hartleys) are telling us they *already* know what Karoo is capable of ... before its made market sensitive   .... Its a Ripleys !!! ... You either believe it, or not ... but if its true ..... 

Anyway, enough rambling from me ... there are real fundamentalists who will give you something concrete to mull over other than my corporate subterfuge theories .... Bear in mind I may be "on the money" though
Cheers.


----------



## hangseng

Those referring to Purd as immature, young, and inexperienced...you are totally incorrect, he is anything but on all three counts. He is a gentlemen, intelligent and an experienced successful investor.

Back to PEN, I have had a good look at the best chart I have ever used to watch stocks progress. It uses MMA's and I have added in the DMI and MACD both weekly and daily.

I will leave it to the masses to make up their own minds, however one observation. The DMI in the weekly shows the +ve indicator turing down, this hides reality in that the daily is displaying a reversal of the DMI +ve indicator trend upward again. Both charts have the price indicator candles at weekly, only the lower indicators have been changed from weekly to daily.

I will also argue that the sp of PEN isn't parabolic as has been suggested. It is in a very strong uptrend as indicated by the widenening MMA's. Also noted is the trend of bouncing off the 3rd MMA consistently as it has done again, each time moving higher.

If anything I see the sp going higher as indicated by the fib levels or at worse going sideways for a short period whilst the supply is transferred to willing buyers. However my money is on it going higher to around the 13.5/14c level sooner rather than later.

enjoy...


----------



## hangseng

Hi Barney, I agree that 60cps short term is unrealistic. It is based on projected figures only and I also agree it is not only achieveable it could go far higher if both Lance and Karoo prove up to be what the company is indicating. Hartleys have remained conservative as they should.

The Karro estimate is based on past results carried out by PEN and also known results from historical drilling conducted by the likes of the original lease owners, Union Carbide and JCI.  JCI (sites 22 and 45) and Union Carbide (site 45). Also the "target areas pegged as a result of published SA Government reports on the results of a 1980's radiometric survey and a 1990's sampling and mapping project for Mo and uranium."
source: http://www.pel.net.au/projects/karoo_region__south_africa.phtml

The Karoo Basin is a part of what is known as the "Karoo Supergroup" and hosts known uranium and molybdenum deposits. It has a lot of similarities to Namibia where EXT, PDN and BMN are, although it is mostly sandstone hosted uranium at Karoo and will be easy mining as the resource is near surface. What we don't know is how deep it goes due to the surface soil masking the past radiometric results.

There is not only 150M/lbs indicated, PEN has reported very high grades of Molybdenum (Mo) from Karoo. This could add 50% to the value of the total resource, of which isn't factored into any share price estimate.

What would the value of PEN be if they achieve the upside figures indicated of a combined 300M/lbs of uranium and the 50% addition of Molybdenum at Karoo? I would put it quite comfortably at the very least being 50% of the market capitalisation of PDN. I say 50% as PDN is trading at a massive p/e ratio, of which I am not sure will continue and I personally find unrealistic. Also why I haven't bought PDN shares, I will leave that to the brave as I believe the risk is far too high now.

I haven't even mentioned the vanadium credits, of which are increasing, any aquisition that may take place, nor the fact PEN has applied for a Toll Milling license. All of which bring the metrics of PEN into a new higher league altogther. Basically the upside potential of PEN I see as massive now, far more than even this permabull thought may occur.

When we touch 60c I will make tech/a happy and realise part of my holdings for a rather massive profit to play with, while I wait for the balance to achieve full potential. If PEN falters in any way and looks like not achieving all stated then I will say goodbye completely and move on to the next PEN, of which I am now seeking.

I can't wait for the DFS, this will provide a real indicator for the future.

Thanks for the update Yuro by the way, and wipe that million $ smile off your face hahahahaha. Soon to be multi for you eh... 
A classic example of risk reward paying off! Buying when there was blood on the streets, a man of my own heart


----------



## tech/a

Damn thats a good looking chart.


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> Damn thats a good looking chart.
> 
> View attachment 41228




C'mon Tech you can do better than that? Do you have a buy and exit price now? 
Also why is it so good looking???


----------



## hangseng

News is getting out there finally I see, and what a great site for it to appear on as well. WNN is followed closely by a lot of nuclear/uranium industry participants. I was first alerted to it by Gus himself 2 years ago. He actually monitors it daily with email alerts as I now do. It opens your eyes as to how big this industry actually is and will be.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org

in part...

*Peninsula upgrades Lance resources* 
04 February 2011 
_Australia-based exploration company Peninsula Energy has announced a 31% increase in total resources at its Lance uranium projects in Wyoming, USA. The company has applied for a licence to mine the Ross project at the deposit.

 Peninsula said that a further upgrade to the JORC-compliant resource estimate for the Lance uranium projects in Wyoming's Powder River Basin puts total resources at 33 million pounds U3O8 (12,700 tU).

The company said that since the release of the updated resource estimate in August 2010, it has continued resource conversion and exploration drilling with the completion of a further 223 drill holes mostly within or near the Ross permit area._


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> News is getting out there finally I see, and what a great site for it to appear on as well. WNN is followed closely by a lot of nuclear/uranium industry participants. I was first alerted to it by Gus himself 2 years ago. He actually monitors it daily with email alerts as I now do. It opens your eyes as to how big this industry actually is and will be.
> 
> http://www.world-nuclear-news.org
> 
> in part...
> 
> *Peninsula upgrades Lance resources*
> 04 February 2011
> _Australia-based exploration company Peninsula Energy has announced a 31% increase in total resources at its Lance uranium projects in Wyoming, USA. The company has applied for a licence to mine the Ross project at the deposit.
> 
> Peninsula said that a further upgrade to the JORC-compliant resource estimate for the Lance uranium projects in Wyoming's Powder River Basin puts total resources at 33 million pounds U3O8 (12,700 tU).
> 
> The company said that since the release of the updated resource estimate in August 2010, it has continued resource conversion and exploration drilling with the completion of a further 223 drill holes mostly within or near the Ross permit area._




thanks HS.
I visited the WNN site and got subscribed myself. Pretty short and sweet newsletter.
What was more thrilling that the main news was about PEN upgrade in no if or but.
Well done research which even chartists should include in their research.


----------



## Miner

GOOD Morning all PEN enthusiastics

Last posting was on 5 Feb  and for 48 hrs so much of silence ?
today PEN rose already to 12 cents. 
Hang Seng - hope you have not started opening Champagane  to pour over the technical chart  just because the actual price has now surpassed Hartley's forecast.

Well done to all whosoever has been following PEN (includes me) and thanks to traders who  may want to unload PEN today at 12 or higher to book profits with fundies to pick them up.


----------



## tech/a

Yes a positive result with 12c holding on rather low volume.
11c should now act as strong support.

So Im in the Cue to join you.


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> Yes a positive result with 12c holding on rather low volume.
> 11c should now act as strong support.
> 
> So Im in the Cue to join you.




substantial buy at .12

11:27:33 AM 0.120 1,500,000 180,000.00  

However the latest buys at .115 are all ridiculously small??

12:50:18 PM 0.115 83 9.55   
12:47:33 PM 0.115 84 9.66   
12:44:03 PM 0.115 82 9.43   
12:40:58 PM 0.115 82 9.43   

Why wouldnt you buy the Penoc at .081 plus the 3 cents take your buy price to .111?

Or does the 2 week lag until you own the full share not sit well with a tech trader as your stuck with the share and unable to sell??


----------



## hangseng

Stay focussed

14,641,794 shares bought UP to 12c

With only
622,739 shares sold down to 11.5c


Someone is shaking the tree to test support...They are not trying to sell a lot of shares.

Ask yourself why?


----------



## tech/a

> Or does the 2 week lag until you own the full share not sit well with a tech trader as your stuck with the share and unable to sell??




I can buy a share now and sell it as quick as it takes to click a mouse?

*Could well be a test the otherway.*

Seeing how strong buyers are there wasnt a rush at 12 to go to 12.5 and beyond. 
Im a bit sus (as usual on the buy side).

In at 11.5c and now out again.


----------



## TheAbyss

tech/a said:


> I can buy a share now and sell it as quick as it takes to click a mouse?
> 
> *Could well be a test the otherway.*
> 
> Seeing how strong buyers are there wasnt a rush at 12 to go to 12.5 and beyond.
> Im a bit sus (as usual on the buy side).
> 
> In at 11.5c and now out again.




Love it! You are as trusting with this stock as a 12 year old boy at a Michael Jackson hosted birthday party lol.

Seriously though, capital is king and to preserved at all times.


----------



## Boggo

My weekly chart of PEN would keep me out at the moment.
Yellow bars = overbought.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a

TheAbyss said:


> Love it! You are as trusting with this stock as a 12 year old boy at a Michael Jackson hosted birthday party lol.
> 
> Seriously though, capital is king and to preserved at all times.




Its *NOT THE STOCK *its the price action and associated Volume.
It could be any stock code.
Its not the first or last stock Ive traded in a few hrs.

I have no attachment to the stock even those I close out at many $1000s profit are simply *CODES WITH PRICE ACTION*

Nothing more or less.


----------



## indeck

Boggo said:


> My weekly chart of PEN would keep me out at the moment.




I had intended on being a bit more long term on PEN but I felt it was overbought also.  Definately looking to re-enter though.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> Someone is shaking the tree to test support...





Hi Hang,  At the end of the day, the major volume was sold at 12 cents, but the selling did drop to the 11.5 area, and the odd few at 11 ...... 

Definitely some supply from the odd larger holder today. No big deal in the overall scheme of things, but I suspect a little more yet before they have cleared the decks, based on the price action.

Volume was still only moderate, and the selling was very ordered ... ie Profit taking/reducing ... definitely not dumping behavior.  

Short term traders obviously aren't going to hang around at these levels if they perceive no further upside movement, particularly if they bought in recently ......

For that reason, I would like to see a short period of consolidation ....

Chart attached (hopefully its clear enough)

Todays price action confirmed the *50% retrace* point (*2*) on the 31st January from the strong consolidation point (*A*) on 31st december ..... coincidentally *exactly one month*

The Volume/price support levels on the 20th + 21st January (*1*) , and 31st January (*2*) has now been verified at *10 cents* (very *important level* for long term holders)

The push up last friday 4th February (*3*) on volume now needs to be verified.  Todays price action of supply at the 11.5 cent level indicates hesitation/profit taking (fortunately on lower volume) .... 

If the share takes off from the 11.5 cent region immediately (*4*) , that would be extremely bullish after todays trading, and to be honest, unexpected.

I'm more inclined to want a brief consolidation/retrace from the last move up (*31st January till 7th february* (today))  (*ie. 2 to 3*),  back to the 68% fib level of 10.5 cents, validated by some *volume support*, before another leg higher (*5*) 

Bottom line ... while ever its trading above 10 cents, it looks "*technically*" strong as well as "*fundamentally*" brilliant.  

It could get sold down a little while the pro "traders" give it a breather, but while ever the retail traders are stepping up to the plate and accumulating the dips, it should progress nicely and orderly from here.

Cheers.


----------



## hangseng

Great post barney and although I agree with what you state in general this I don't _"the major volume was sold at 12 cents"_.

It factor the mojorty of trading today was buying up to 12c. 

14,879,877 bought up to 12c

9,551,986 at 11.5c of which ~6M was a single sell to 11.5 the balance bought up to 11.5c

2,513,087 sold to 11c at closing auction.

The OBV remains buying up to a price, not selling. That said there is no argumaent "supply" was forthcoming and controlled as you correctly indicated. Apart from the single sell, I saw nothing in the way of any dumping.

I agree with the sideways consolidation pattern from here is likely (and healthy) and said as much in my posted chart. The 6M sell was a definite party pooper today, if not for that PEN was definitely looking at breaking 12c today.

The biggest difference I saw today to what happened in 2007, was that willing buyers continued to step up and many of them. In 2007 at this stage they vanished, literally.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> *Great post barney and although I agree with what you state in general this I don't "the major volume was sold at 12 cents".
> 
> It factor the mojorty of trading today was buying up to 12c. *




May have been a Freudian slip Hang

You are quite right to state that the early buying was buying, which is no doubt correct ...... 

I was viewing the overall day slightly on the negative side because the eventual seller/sellers who were sitting on the sidelines, were in control of the days outcome, once they started hitting the market, as the buyers were exhausted at that stage ....... and to be honest, I think they have a bit more supply before completion ...   

however ...




hangseng said:


> *I agree with the sideways consolidation pattern from here is likely (and healthy) and said as much in my posted chart. The 6M sell was a definite party pooper today, if not for that PEN was definitely looking at breaking 12c today.
> 
> The biggest difference I saw today to what happened in 2007, was that willing buyers continued to step up and many of them. In 2007 at this stage they vanished, literally.*





We totally agree on the bigger picture

There has to be days of selling at this stage, and it would actually be "unhealthy" if there wasn't.  The support under the current price is brilliant ...... If this was to retrace back to 10 cents, I reckon we would all get trampled in the stampede

I won't be surprised to see it nudge 10.5 on a push lower if the pro's have a couple of days off, but if the general market stays steady, and we get some healthy consolidation, I have a next fib projection of 14.5 cents !!  ie. Within a day or two after we get a daily close above 11.5 !!  ..... iie.  Looks good

Cheers.


----------



## tech/a

Looks weak to me
Didn't go on with it and had every opportunity
Its done its dash in the near term.

Consolidation is the best out come ----8.4c or worse the worst!

H/S buying more at 11c?


----------



## ColB

81 buyers for 6,804,042 @ 0.11c
*8 Sellers* for 7,576,329 @ 11.5c

I don't have full market depth to see the breakdown of the 8 sellers but obviously it comprises of some significant disposal by few holders.  Was travelling quite nicely until tech put the moz on us

To bail out, take a nice profit and buy back in at 10.5c????


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Looks weak to me
> Didn't go on with it and had every opportunity
> Its done its dash in the near term.
> 
> Consolidation is the best out come ----8.4c or worse the worst!
> 
> H/S buying more at 11c?





Hi tech,   I wasn't overly keen on the large sellers happily sitting in the queue at 11.5 today i must admit, but they were orderly, so nothing out of the ordinary in the pipeline just yet. 

The acid test comes if any large holders/*investors* decide to cash in their chips. 

Personally, I see most large holders/*traders* out by 20th 21st January .... Some back in on 31st January at 9.5 cents ..... and most of them out last friday and today,  so for the Sp to drop to the mid 8's there would have to be a large sentiment shift in the stock.  It will firstly have to break 10 cents to test that scenario.

Perhaps we could have a friendly little wager for the sheer fun of it ....

I reckon we will touch 14 cents before we touch 8.4 cents ...... 

Say 5 x $2 Lottery tickets, and we share the proceeds when I win


----------



## mattryanshares

Techs been wrong many times in this thread. 
1st it was going to 8.5 cents. last week. 
Then it wasnt going to break 11.5 cents.
Then it was a good looking chart and he was in the que.
Then he was in and out due to no volume or something?? maybe for a loss???
Now he is predicting possibly below 8 cents again????


Nothing personel mate and i really do enjoy your analysis just as long as you keep getting it wrong!!! 
Especially the last one!!!    c:


----------



## tech/a

mattryanshares said:


> Techs been wrong many times in this thread.
> 1st it was going to 8.5 cents. last week.
> Then it wasnt going to break 11.5 cents.
> Then it was a good looking chart and he was in the que.
> Then he was in and out due to no volume or something?? maybe for a loss???
> Now he is predicting possibly below 8 cents again????
> 
> 
> Nothing personel mate and i really do enjoy your analysis just as long as you keep getting it wrong!!!
> Especially the last one!!!    c:






> Looks weak to me
> Didn't go on with it and had every opportunity
> *Its done its dash in the near term.
> *
> *Consolidation is the best out come *----8.4c or worse the worst!




Hasn't been *WRONG* yet.

You and those that think its wrong Dont understand tech analysis.

T/A* isn't* about being right its about identifying opportunity and putting yourself in front of it.
Your expecting longterm analysis when I'm looking at almost daily analysis. If like yesterday it doesn't pan out immediately then I remove myself from the market and wait. As I have said I may join you IF the analysis confirms your view---after all I will then have to pay for some lottery tickets!!

There has been and still are various technical scenarios that could play out.
Since I have presented a technical view the stock price has gone as low as 9.5c and as high as 12c. its now at 11c hardly definitive price action for bullish OR bearish analysis either fundamental OR technical.

I have and will present *BOTH possibilities not ONE* as our Fundamental friends are doing.

Until this makes a profit there is only speculation holding this stock together and its in the interest of the company AND its share holders to keep the positive vibe pumped to the max.
H/S by his own admission has a substantial holding---so every time I see a long convoluted post on PEN fundamental information regardless of direction of stock movement---the cynic in me cant help but wonder about "agendas".

I'm not the only one on this thread that doesn't feel PEN will just keep rising to $10
Its not going to crash and burn either.

The analysis is presented as it is seen. If your really keen on the stock at 11c---buy your heart out.

Oh and your on with the lottery tickets.


----------



## hangseng

"regardless of direction of stock movement"

There is your answer tech/a, unlike day treaders that swing their sentiment with the breeze according to their holding my view remains consistent based on known fundamental facts.

Your trade yesterday you hold and say looks good, then you sell and it looks really bad. Same old same old posting to book, the only thing I will give you is you at least stick to a TA view. It is the ones that profess to be LT holders and yet swing with the breeze and PEN has had many of those on forums over the last 3 years, the last 2 in particular.

My view hasn't changed and for good fundamental reason. A few pips means zip to me other than opportunity if I have available funds.

Those that *TRULY* know me know my agenda, your innuendo doesn't warrant response. You state you stick to TA and yet to justify your own view you simply have to throw in a personal dig.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> *Until this makes a profit there is only speculation holding this stock together and its in the interest of the company AND its share holders to keep the positive vibe pumped to the max.*




This is true.  

I think what is setting PEN apart from many Specs in this regard, is the definitive time line set by the management, and their implementation of that plan.

When we look Specs like DML (copper) or many of the junior Iron Ore companies, they also have great resources, but their time line to production is many years away, whereas PEN has a very near term proposed production scenario.

If that plan comes about (and there are always ifs), the profits that PEN will be able to generate, could see them emerge as a very large player in the global arena ...... and that is why the SP run AND the market sentiment have been in sync ...... We have a Spec with real fundamental substance rather than just market hype.  



tech/a said:


> *Oh and your on with the lottery tickets.*




Good on ya tech ... all good fun.   

I may have to trade the wife to pay for the tickets if it gets to 8.4 

The 50% retracement from the December lows to yesterday is about *8.7 cents* ... I'm safe as a bank !!


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

barney said:


> ... I'm safe as a bank !!




Need I remind you what happened to Banks in the US :

Either way, best of luck to you both Gentlemen!


----------



## barney

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Need I remind you what happened to Banks in the US :







Just as a follow up ....... I may have to trade the dog instead ..... The wife has indicated at  8.4 cents,  she will have already vacated the premises

     ...:run:


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

barney said:


> Just as a follow up ....... I may have to trade the dog instead ..... The wife has indicated at  8.4 cents,  she will have already vacated the premises
> 
> ...:run:




Hahahaha oh my that sure made me laugh I can tell you. Well I hope for your sake we don't see a drop to 8.4 cents. Hopefully you have some adequate stops in place to protect your position...

...and your marriage :


----------



## mattryanshares

Well the Sp price has stayed at 11.5 so far and then dropped to 11.0

But it was through a crossing or XT trade? This means the same firm bought and sold the stock? Why do this? is this a test at the 11.0 or is it to try and drop the stock?? Any insights appreciated??

11:33:32 AM 0.110 500,000 55,000.00 XT


----------



## tech/a

Lets say you and I are clients of the same brokerage.
I want to sell my 500,000 PEN for 11c and you want to buy them.

The brokerage ISNT buying the stock for themselves!!!


----------



## hangseng

mattryanshares said:


> Well the Sp price has stayed at 11.5 so far and then dropped to 11.0
> 
> But it was through a crossing or XT trade? This means the same firm bought and sold the stock? Why do this? is this a test at the 11.0 or is it to try and drop the stock?? Any insights appreciated??
> 
> 11:33:32 AM 0.110 500,000 55,000.00 XT





Also something that was pointed out to me regarding the closing auction.

The difference between PEN closing at 11.5c and 11c was in fact 1 share. So the broker placed one more share on the sell side to loer the closing auction price.

1 share...

Who was the broker doing favours for? Not the seller, not unless they HAD to sell. such as a T+3 trader.


----------



## mattryanshares

It nearly closed at 12 cents today. Sure it was only a few small trades but 12 cent close would of been positive yeah???

04:10:26 PM 0.115 87,488 10,061.12   
04:10:26 PM 0.115 8,162 938.63   
04:10:26 PM 0.115 104,350 12,000.25   
03:58:51 PM 0.120 10,959 1,315.08   
03:58:50 PM 0.120 866 103.92   
03:58:50 PM 0.120 2,680 321.60   
03:52:32 PM 0.120 36,000 4,320.00 XT 
03:45:24 PM 0.120 28,882 3,465.84   
03:43:59 PM 0.115 91,838 10,561.37   
03:43:59 PM 0.115 18,162 2,088.63   
03:43:46 PM 0.120 13,000 1,560.00


----------



## barney

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Hahahaha oh my that sure made me laugh I can tell you. Well I hope for your sake we don't see a drop to 8.4 cents. *Hopefully you have some adequate stops in place* to protect your position...




Stops ... I have stops in place all right.  If my wife leaves me, I'm *stopping* off at tech's place for a few days:  ..... after all, we are going to win the lottery irrespective of what PEN does !! ..... I wish




mattryanshares said:


> It nearly closed at 12 cents today. Sure it was only a few small trades but 12 cent close would of been positive yeah???




Todays price action looked very positive in the short term from where I sit .... 

The large sellers from the last two days were out (for the moment at least), and the bulk of the trading was in smaller lots (although there were a few interesting larger trades   .)

15 million odd shares at 11.5 cents today, after a little sell off  the last two days by a couple of larger holders looks very encouraging ... and it makes fridays 11.5 level look more robust.

Happy to be holding, and expect 11.5 to be the next push level ...... I don't expect the traders are going to waste their time trying to dump down past 11.5 at the moment, but I could be wrong ...... looking for a 12 cent close tomorrow .... if its under 11, I'm putting 10 bucks aside for some lottery tickets


----------



## tech/a

Nothing much has changed.
A ho hum day I thought.

I have noticed that PEN has remained pretty stagnant on strong Index days like today.

If the ORDs gets hit 50 points + to the downside I wonder how hard PEN will be hit.
That will sort out the speculators and after a strong down turn which is technically imminent (For the index )---the Investors as well.


----------



## Miner

barney said:


> Stops ... I have stops in place all right.  *If my wife leaves me, I'm stopping off at tech's place for a few days:mad*::  ..... after all, we are going to win the lottery irrespective of what PEN does !! ..... I wish




Hey Barney

I am sure we should analyse PEN here. But I am too thick headed to understand it. If your wife leaves you are off at Tech's place for doing what ? PEN or PAIN. Mate, I will not think you are not desperate to win at PEN and replacing Wife with TECH????????????????????///


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

Miner said:


> ....replacing Wife with TECH????????????????????///




The heart wants what the heart wants :1luvu:


----------



## mattryanshares

Miner said:


> Hey Barney
> 
> I am sure we should analyse PEN here. But I am too thick headed to understand it. If your wife leaves you are off at Tech's place for doing what ? PEN or PAIN. Mate, I will not think you are not desperate to win at PEN and replacing Wife with TECH????????????????????///




You had a few drinks miner?? better check on your canary as i think it fell off its perch!! LOL

Looks like Pen will open at 12.0 today!!
Buy
Number Quantity Price 
1 500,000 0.130 
1 909,090 0.125 
6 745,065 0.120 
31 5,209,386 0.115 

Sell

Price Quantity Number 
0.110 15,000 1 
0.115 100,000 1 
0.120 6,106,045 45 
0.125 5,764,766 42 
0.130 5,258,129 29


----------



## albaby

depth looks great too.51m buy 36m sell.miner can I have some of whatever you'r on?


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Nothing much has changed.
> A ho hum day I thought.
> 
> I have noticed that PEN has remained pretty stagnant on strong Index days like today.




It's been trading this exact way for a long time.  The traders strut there stuff for a day or two .... have a couple of days off while the stock is quietly accumulated .... When the opportunity re presents itself, they push the open on volume, and repeat the process.

I'm under no illusion that wheels can fall off any stock, but the sentiment from the market is still positive until proven otherwise.





KurwaJegoMac said:


> The heart wants what the heart wants :1luvu:





You guys have it all wrong .... I only want tech for his money:


----------



## mattryanshares

Have the days of 11.5 been left behind?
So fairly substantial buys today at 12 and up??

10:06:38 AM 0.120 484,740 58,168.80 
10:06:38 AM 0.120 514,310 61,717.20   
10:06:38 AM 0.120 410,690 49,282.80  
10:06:38 AM 0.120 488,150 58,578.00 
10:14:07 AM 0.125 305,000 38,125.00 XT 
10:14:07 AM 0.125 339,115 42,389.38


----------



## tech/a

> Have the days of 11.5 been left behind?




Tell you at todays close.


----------



## mattryanshares

Just more common info, good or bad or otherwise?

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110209/pdf/01149391.pdf

Pala investments increase Pen holdings
I think, this is how i read it anyway??


----------



## Miner

12.5 CENTS today. Hmm Hangseng where are you ? Burning the technical charts with fundies rolling stock 

Well good report showing Pala Investment has increased its stake substantially. The stake level is very encouraging .
Please also see the conference notes. In my experience such encouraging ntoes are normally followed by a significant price change or equity raise. Not sure what will be for PEN.
Any way DYOR and I am holding PEN
Sorry facing difficulty in uploading - not sure if IT issue with ASF or at my own side. Please see the link in ASX


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=PEN


----------



## barney

Miner said:


> Well good report showing Pala Investment has increased its stake substantially. The stake level is very encouraging .





Thanks Miner ..... very nice .... (the report I mean

When these big players continue accumulating, its a very good sign for the future.


----------



## mattryanshares

Pen just hit 13.0!!!!


----------



## tech/a

Good news for you guys.
Looks like supply has been overcome at last.
Struggles like hell though.
Bought a couple to pay for lottery tickets!


----------



## indeck

I hopped back in today.  Seems to have some interest at .13 with people still buying at that price although not huge volume.


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> Good news for you guys.
> Looks like supply has been overcome at last.
> Struggles like hell though.
> Bought a couple to pay for lottery tickets!




I guess this is where i struggle with the whole fundamental versus tech type trading? As because its hit 13 now there are people tryin to buy 4000000 plus shares at 12.5 cents. 
I like the idea of seeing value in something and then buying it. Not seeing that "whoa! i only valued that at 12cents but seeing as someone else will pay 13 cents then i'll now buy it for 12.5 cents??"


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Good news for you guys.
> Looks like supply has been overcome at last.
> Struggles like hell though.
> *Bought a couple to pay for lottery tickets*!




Lol .... There's still a little work to be done yet tech, but since you're back in, lets hope you're the one buying the tickets for both our sakes

ps We are sharing the winnings of course!!  .... Now wouldn't that make a good story if we won the lottery ..... stranger things have happened.


There has been some solid buys at 12.5 cents ..... One for about 5 million shares at  1.35 pm.   Whether they will try and mop any more up at that level with a late push down is yet to be seen. 

There is pretty good volume support building at 12.5 now, so with a bit of luck, the big players might just line wipe 13 just before the close  .... That would make everybody happy!


----------



## hangseng

Not a bad day...

Never under estimate the value of sound fundamental research and MMA's. Still here and will be for some time yet miner. Never once did I believe this wasn't going to happen and some.

Had I taken any notice of negative sentiment or recent chart analysis other than my own I would now be around $50,000 worse off in my portfolio.

Lessen for all...Have faith in your own research and hold on tight until something fundamentally wrong indicates otherwise. Never be swayed by negative sentiment, unless supported by sound factual information about the company you invested in.

PEN has not given me one reason to be swayed in the last 3 years. Now PEN is stronger than ever.


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=41

_



			I have had a good look at the best chart I have ever used to watch stocks progress. It uses MMA's and I have added in the DMI and MACD both weekly and daily.

I will leave it to the masses to make up their own minds, however one observation. The DMI in the weekly shows the +ve indicator turing down, this hides reality in that the daily is displaying a reversal of the DMI +ve indicator trend upward again. Both charts have the price indicator candles at weekly, only the lower indicators have been changed from weekly to daily.

I will also argue that the sp of PEN isn't parabolic as has been suggested. It is in a very strong uptrend as indicated by the widenening MMA's. Also noted is the trend of bouncing off the 3rd MMA consistently as it has done again, each time moving higher.

If anything I see the sp going higher as indicated by the fib levels or at worse going sideways for a short period whilst the supply is transferred to willing buyers.* However my money is on it going higher to around the 13.5/14c level sooner rather than later*.
		
Click to expand...


_


----------



## Megacents

Just put the 13cent close of day into my spreadsheet and I had a nice smile. Will not be long till I can splash out on some goodies.

Just holding and watching the ride. Looking forward to the DFS and permit.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> Lessen for all...Have faith in your own research and hold on tight until something fundamentally wrong indicates otherwise.
> 
> PEN has not given me one reason to be swayed in the last 3 years. Now PEN is stronger than ever.




Well done Hang ...... Hope you're enjoying looking at all those zeros on your bank balance:


I made the below comment the other day, fully expecting a period of consolidation 





barney said:


> If the share takes off from the 11.5 cent region immediately (*4*) , *that would be extremely bullish* after todays trading, and to be honest, unexpected.




Todays price action validates 11.5 as genuine support, and indicates 12 as the new support .... If today is proven, 12.5 cents will become the new 50% retrace level (which is what I favour in the short term) ..... and the way its going, it may just blow all that out the window, and make its own levels

Whichever way you look at it, it looks good in the medium term technically (a short term retrace might even be healthy) .... and fundamentally, *the management continue to do a great job*  ....... 

Good onya Hang .... Enjoy the fruits of your labours.


----------



## tech/a

Yes strong result.
Supply eventually over come.

Very wise to stick to your own analysis.
If your wrong you only have yourself to blame.

Haven't bought those lottery tickets yet.


----------



## Purd2

Hey Tech/a  Have you Steve Nison's book on candlestick charting?
I have a copy on my computer if you would like it. I fluked a free download ages ago. Anyway let me know and I would be happy to send it to you. P


----------



## tech/a

Thanks but I have it.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Haven't bought those lottery tickets yet.





Quite rightly so tech.   Actually considering the play is now in my favour, I would like to change the rules just a little.

I think for either level (14 cents, or 8.4 cents) to be justified as a winning level, I think a daily close at or above/below those levels for at least three consecutive days would be grounds to claim a victory.

I would hate to see it touch 14 on friday of this week, then see it drop back to 13 early the following week ... That would be a hollow victory .... I'm sure you would agree. 

I made the comment a couple of days ago that once the SP closed above 11.5, it would hit 14 within a couple of days thereafter.  I stand by that, and expect Friday ... but if not, then Monday or Tuesday next week.

I trust you are agreeable to the amendments to our contract, and I look forward to PEN closing at 14 or higher for 3 consecutive days in the near future .... and to winning a 50% share of first prize in the upcoming $2 Lottery


----------



## Market Depth

I must say I've really enjoyed this thread. The discussions from both the FA and TA posters has been great. I'm an accumulator of PEN stock, so I'm running with the FA side of things with this one. I hope to see all of you all at the top of this one, no matter how you like to play it. Could PEN be as good as Independance Group (IGO)? I hope so.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Have a read of PEN threads on Hotcopper today.  Interesting stuff going on.  Anyone interested in sentiment analysis will get a lot out of following the tone of posts there, _and its relationship to share price_ over the next few days.  I don't hold any PEN.


----------



## Market Depth

What's going on over at HC GB? I'm only a member of ASF


----------



## Gringotts Bank

MD, it's over the top celebrations and congratulations.  Talk of $11 SP, champagne flowing, etc.


----------



## Market Depth

Gringotts Bank said:


> MD, it's over the top celebrations and congratulations.  Talk of $11 SP, champagne flowing, etc.




$11 That's quite a few ice changes on the 1998 Dom


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Despite all the warning signs here and on HC, I'd say the sentiment is still strong.  Tomorrow could be a good trading day.  If it gaps open at 13.5, I'll buy some and look to sell at 15.  I wouldn't hold it into close. I think it could peak tomorrow and return to the trend line at 13 soon after, followed by a flat spell on lower volume.  These are just my guesses on the short term movements.


----------



## tech/a

Just a point of interest.

Fundamental analysis of this or any other stock is unlikely to alter in the short term---even months may pass before something fundamentally alters---not that that may even alter the views of some!!

Technical analysis will and does alter with price and volume action.
Poor technical tools such as MMA's will also lag due to their periodicy.
So this thread is likely to be harmonious and at logger heads strictly from the fundies point of view.

As techies we take it as its presented and change opinion as quick as is displayed in Price and volume.

The nature of both beasts.


----------



## mattryanshares

UBS AG
increases holdings in Pen.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110210/pdf/01149630.pdf


----------



## awg

Great thread

Fundies, analysts and techies agree PEN is a buy 

Hope that doesnt mean the @rse will fall out :

Disclosure, I hold, topped up yesterday too


----------



## mattryanshares

Looks like opening at 13.5 as well!!!


----------



## Megacents

mattryanshares said:


> Looks like opening at 13.5 as well!!!




13.5 for heads and 10 for PENOC, not sure of PENOA.

tech/a
Tweed jacket F/A
Sports jAcket T/A


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Broader market is wobbly, PEN sentiment strong.  I guess they're canceling each other out.  Takes a huge amount of momentum for a 'trading stock' to power against the broader market.  Like swimming upstream.


----------



## Megacents

Gringotts Bank said:


> Broader market is wobbly, PEN sentiment strong.  I guess they're canceling each other out.  Takes a huge amount of momentum for a 'trading stock' to power against the broader market.  Like swimming upstream.




Could it be the fact that UBS or who ever they are holding for, are making a play for PEN over time? Perhaps one of the big uranium players??

Citicorp 10%
PALA     Not sure
UBS      15% 
Management  Not sure but a large holding 10-15%  ???

The above figures are from memory and Jan top twenty
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-29--eequoovoot.pdf


----------



## mattryanshares

It did just nudge 14!!!


----------



## tech/a

Megacents said:


> 13.5 for heads and 10 for PENOC, not sure of PENOA.
> 
> tech/a
> Tweed jacket F/A
> Sports jAcket T/A


----------



## mattryanshares

Here comes 14 all but slowly!!!

11:37:46 AM 0.140 100,000 14,000.00  
11:27:14 AM 0.140 10,000 1,400.00 
11:00:10 AM 0.140 7,500 1,050.00  
10:58:10 AM 0.140 9,416 1,318.24   
10:55:43 AM 0.140 30,011 4,201.54   
10:55:43 AM 0.140 30,000 4,200.00   
10:55:43 AM 0.140 14,989 2,098.46


----------



## tech/a

mattryanshares said:


> Here comes 14 all but slowly!!!
> 
> 11:37:46 AM 0.140 100,000 14,000.00
> 11:27:14 AM 0.140 10,000 1,400.00
> 11:00:10 AM 0.140 7,500 1,050.00
> 10:58:10 AM 0.140 9,416 1,318.24
> 10:55:43 AM 0.140 30,011 4,201.54
> 10:55:43 AM 0.140 30,000 4,200.00
> 10:55:43 AM 0.140 14,989 2,098.46






OPPS
Some one threw a




In the works.


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> OPPS
> Some one threw a
> 
> View attachment 41285
> 
> 
> In the works.




Ye men of little faith,


----------



## Market Depth

Was out and about with my Dad today, so had a day off trading. Is PEN still looking good Feallas?


----------



## mattryanshares

Oh C'mon!! Wheres all the excitement gone??

i had a great day Pen hit 14 a few times and ended up at yesterdays high of 13. Bit of profit taking?? i dont really know much but it was fun and did trade well considering the rest of the market??
Im sure the tech's will give us the bigger picture!!


----------



## Market Depth

I'm still excited Matt, I've been on this since late October With what GB mentioned about what was going on over at HC, I'm half expecting a 'High Point Reversal' shortly. If it comes, for me this is time to take some coin off the table.


----------



## barney

Market Depth said:


> Was out and about with my Dad today, so had a day off trading. Is PEN still looking good *Feallas*?




Howdy MD,  I'm sure your question is rhetorical, but for the benefit of any holders who see todays SP as a reason to get nervous ......

Price Level .....    14 cents ..... Volume .....   1,091,201

Price Level ......   13.5 cents ... Volume .....   *21,241,880* 

Price Level  .....    13 cents  .... Volume .....  5,331,888

Price Level ......    12.5 cents ... Volume .....  582,748


We can make all sorts of assumptions on the above, but my guess is .... If it looks like accumulation .... it's probably accumulation.

Of course, if the "accumulators" get the chance to bump the SP down to lower levels with minimal effort to pick up stock at cheaper prices .... that is what they will do

This level was always going to be an interesting one, with both the Options (PENOA + PENOC) getting to "important" levels)  

The large players will want as much "option stock" as possible around these levels, and it will be interesting to see how much they can force  out of we retailers grip. (They are not getting mine

ps  What the heck is a "*Fealla*":


----------



## barney

mattryanshares said:


> Oh C'mon!! Wheres all the excitement gone??
> 
> i had a great day Pen hit 14 a few times and *ended up at yesterdays high of 13*. Bit of profit taking?? i dont really know much but it was fun and did trade well considering the rest of the market??
> Im sure the tech's will give us the bigger picture!!





It actually closed at 12.5 Matt. 

If the retail buyers start to thin out at these levels, the "accumulators" will have some scope to "push" the SP around a bit in the short term.

I'll be buying lottery tickets before I give mine away !!


----------



## Market Depth

Thanks for doing that barney Looks like good support in the 13.5 range. I'm out again tomorrow, so have SMS alert going now. Hopefully it will just be a 'Slow Burn' into the support area.


----------



## barney

Market Depth said:


> Thanks for doing that barney Looks like good support in the 13.5 range. I'm out again tomorrow, so have SMS alert going now. Hopefully it will just be a 'Slow Burn' into the support area.




Yeah lets hope so MD .... There are some big players who could move this a long way in a hurry (either way)  if they wanted to, and its about the level where they may try and "spook" us poor retailers into submission

The recent accumulation by Pala and USB puts a real fundamental base under it for mine, but I've been in for quite some time, so a bit of heat is to be expected .... maybe even a potential top up scenario ..... I just don't want to have to buy lottery tickets yet
Cheers.


----------



## tech/a

The way things are currently looking on the FTSE and DAX if the US follows suit and the O/N SPI keeps falling like it is.

That Spanner is going to turn into a wrench!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> View attachment 41291
> 
> 
> The way things are currently looking on the FTSE and DAX if the US follows suit and the O/N SPI keeps falling like it is.
> 
> That Spanner is going to turn into a wrench!




Personally I think a short term retrace all round looks healthy.  The FTSE needs to test and prove the 6000 area ..... The Dax needs to test and prove the 7200 area, and I'd be happy for the Dow to retest 11850 so long as it bounced from that point.

You still holding PEN tech?


----------



## tech/a

Yep
Stop at old resistance 11.5c
Whole portfolio dropped on closing Auction dramatically.
That had me running to short DAX and FTSE.
Closed both a few minutes ago.--Nice hedge
Anyway Tomorrow is going to be expensive ---I feel.


----------



## burglar

tech/a said:


> View attachment 41284




I do like the cut of your jib! 

And just to add content !!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Anyway Tomorrow is going to be expensive ---I feel.




Index's are looking a little short term toppy, although I don't see anything too sinister happening just yet ..... PEN has been fairly resilient to date.  A close under 11.5 would be a surprise, but the market will do what it does of course.


----------



## tech/a

> A close under 11.5 would be a surprise,




Why my stop is there.


----------



## tugga

At 13c now... If it closes at 13 or above you got to be happy.. As the market isn't traveling to well today!


----------



## ColB

tech/a said:


> Why my stop is there.




Maybe shouldn't speak too soon Tech but you're stop looks pretty safe.  Fairly moderate buying at 13c mid morning but will have to clear the significant .135 sell volume before any celebration.

I hold


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I don't own PEN, I just traded it yesterday, so I have no vested interest in either direction.

Having said that, Peninsula Energy *could not buy* the sort of positive publicity they have received here and on HC in the last few weeks.  Of course it's impossible to put a price on it, but I'd guess it's worth millions to them...literally.  I'm referring mainly to Hangseng's posts - *not the content* but the positive unwavering belief he has in the company, and how this can help others adopt a similar belief.  It's a very interesting study in market dynamics.  One of the best I've seen since the famous 'trade4profit and CDU/AUM' threads at HC.

If we put aside all the backslapping and hoo-haa which is a bit OTT at times , HS looks like he has an ability to influence other investors.  The 'how' and 'why' of this is something I'm pondering today.  

RNI, with its 30-bag performance would give anything for publicity like this.  BTU also, and GLA, AFR, PEK...etc etc!


----------



## hangseng

Gringotts Bank, I don't know about the ability to influence others. I would hope and trust that any investor does their own research and never makes a decision based on a single poster on a forum.

That said I will make one comment regarding the "OTT" aspect, of which is understandable for people that aren't close to what has happened, and the post topic in general. What happens on the forums is one thing, what happens off the forum is another altogether.

I have been researching PEN consistently and at depth for over 3.5yrs. I share this information both on and offline. I have made many online friends, some that have now become personal friends, others are just long term friends I have known for years and others are like industry people and company directors that know me personally. You would be very surprised if you knew some of these people and the level of knowledge they have in fields ranging from corporate finance and banking, engineering, mining and even one a loco driver in the Pilbara some now in the top 20 holders listing.

We have shared a common view regarding PEN and have between us spent countless time researching and sharing information. I myself spending many a late night and early morning  often whole weekends and on 3 occasions I recall all night sessions. The latter I did when it became clear to me I was on to something so continued until I was convinced I was right, there after I made some rather big decisions to sell some good stocks and put even more into PEN. A decision I have not once regretted since, that was in 2009.

People on forums see a post and say so what, what they don't see is the often joint effort that has gone into the post.

Through this long bond we have had we have shared everything included personal information to get to know each other better. With this some have even shared quite emotive life stories of success and hardship.

We have seen the best and worst of people on forums, we have taken personal abuse and received heartfelt sincere gratitude. We have put up at times if with blatant liars and forum manipulators using multi-nics trying to discredit me and other fine PEN posters, both here and elsewhere. I myself being moderated many times elsewhere for defending against this and others even suspendd. Only to eventually be found to be correct in what we were saying and the manipulators being exposed publicly.

We now are enjoying something quite special in seeing our shared vision of PEN come to reality, and yes it has been an emotive time. We all have massive profits, and expect them to go much higher now.

To see this happen after what we dedicated ourselves to do, mainly me from the start and inviting selected others to join us. We are now enjoying and yes congratulating each other for various reasons.

I have received so many emails I am still trying to get through them all. Real life stories of people that have done well from PEN and attributing their new found wealth to me. Some of the stories are heart wrenching, some simply people that took a gamble it seems but has paid off. Some did further research, some clearly didn't of which I found a little unsettling.

To you and others that haven't shared all that made the journey we have so far, it may seem "OTT". To us it isn't at all, it is something rarely seen on forums, real outflow of  human emotion.

To you and others "OTT", to us something quite special indeed.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> *To you and others that haven't shared all that made the journey we have so far, it may seem "OTT". To us it isn't at all, it is something rarely seen on forums, real outflow of  human emotion.
> 
> .......... to us something quite special indeed.*






Gringotts Bank said:


> *HS looks like he has an ability to influence other investors.  The 'how' and 'why' of this is something I'm pondering today.  *





I'd suggest Hang also generates a lot of inspiration as well as influence. 

People appreciate sincerity and integrity, and he appears to be well credentialed with both these attributes. 

And with regard to this particular stock, .... he knows that much, that I reckon he's been hiding in the Boardroom:couch


----------



## Miner

Gringotts Bank said:


> I don't own PEN, I just traded it yesterday, so I have no vested interest in either direction.
> 
> Having said that, Peninsula Energy *could not buy* the sort of positive publicity they have received here and on HC in the last few weeks.  Of course it's impossible to put a price on it, but I'd guess it's worth millions to them...literally.  I'm referring mainly to Hangseng's posts - *not the content* but the positive unwavering belief he has in the company, and how this can help others adopt a similar belief.  It's a very interesting study in market dynamics.  One of the best I've seen since the famous 'trade4profit and CDU/AUM' threads at HC.
> 
> If we put aside all the backslapping and hoo-haa which is a bit OTT at times , HS looks like he has an ability to influence other investors.  The 'how' and 'why' of this is something I'm pondering today.
> 
> RNI, with its 30-bag performance would give anything for publicity like this.  BTU also, and GLA, AFR, PEK...etc etc!




Grin Bank

Thanks for your compliment on HS.
Let me declare that this posting is not paid by HS. However personally I am very much motivated by his quality and thought provoking posting in a positive way not just PEN but all of his postings on other threads. He has been consistent, beliving on himself and shared his beliefs in a positive way with others. 
Sorry folks it looks like a thanks message to HS (just like Agentm did in AUT thread and Condog did in EKA, AUT and SEA threads; KGEE did in OIP, Grace did in BOW, BSEBS did in BKP,  Juliia did in many of the threads including her inspiring postings on stock and general chat threads  ). There are many others but these  names came to my mind and I do not keep track on all threads.
I have personally gained from HS thread, constant challenging the odds and encountering some of the non believers.
I am sure mods will agree that there is nothing wrong to acknowledge the contributions from ASF members like HS.

Please keep the momentum up on PEN. I hope it will behave like FMG in old days and we would see HS as our new Andrew Forrest (hopefully then I can send my CV to HS for a job and his recommendation too)


----------



## hangseng

LOL barney, I am often accused of similar. However unless PEN set up office in Jakarta it could be a bit tricky do that.

My research simple methodology though is the key. 

I read every company report at least twice, sometimes 3 in the case of presentations. I do the same with broker reports.
I look outside PEN for information. I have written to and spoken to people from the NRC and WDEQ in Wyoming.
I take little notice of newspaper or most general web reports on PEN, as I am way in front of them so I don't waste my time.
I follow world trends. The greenhouse environmental discusssions and debate as it relates to energy and Nuclear Power. World supply and demand of uranium.
I read other relevant uranium mining company information.
I liaise with industry experts. I am lucky in that I have access to people in the fields of engineering, finance, mining, risk and project management, process metallurgy and construction. Myself with expertise and/or direct exposure to all of these fields.

Simple eh!


----------



## barney

Miner said:


> *I am sure mods will agree that there is nothing wrong to acknowledge the contributions from ASF members like HS.*




Totally agree Miner. There are many high quality posters on this site, and more importantly, there are a lot of high quality people from all walks of life that we can communicate with, and learn from ..... technology is a wonderful thing 



hangseng said:


> *LOL barney, I am often accused of similar. However unless PEN set up office in Jakarta it could be a bit tricky do that.
> *




You could always buy a Lear Jet with your PEN profits and commute!!:



hangseng said:


> *Simple eh!*





Simple as *A C B*....:bonk:


----------



## barney

barney said:


> ..... *PEN has been fairly resilient to date.  *





May as well quote myself for a change 


Just as a matter of interest, the trading price levels today were :-


Price ...... 12.5 cents  Volume Traded ....... 2,124,659

Price ...... 13 cents     Volume Traded ...... *11,460,584* 

Price ...... 13.5 cents  Volume Traded ....... 69,500 


On a day when it could have been easily sold down, we saw the bulk of the volume at 13 cents ............ I'd call that fairly *resilient*

Still a bit of work to do to break the next level convincingly, but it looks at the moment as though the bulk of PEN holders are just that .... Holders !!


----------



## breaker

Thanks HS  I to am a holder, just wondering how easy it is to sell 500k of PEN shares or any specie for that matter
Thanks


----------



## Market Depth

breaker said:


> Thanks HS  I to am a holder, just wondering how easy it is to sell 500k of PEN shares or any specie for that matter
> Thanks




Put them on the market and find out.


----------



## hangseng

breaker said:


> Thanks HS  I to am a holder, just wondering how easy it is to sell 500k of PEN shares or any specie for that matter
> Thanks




It is one of the aspects that I like about PEN...Liquidity and lot's of it. Institutional investors, brokers and fund managers love it and with good reason. You can get in easily and you can get out as easily.

All you need do is define what price you want to sell at. Then you can either place a sell in the queue or you can wait until your desired sell level is in the bid line.

When it comes time for me to sell I will be very pleasd PEN has the liquidity it has.

A friend of mine that held 200,000 EXT all the way to $10 from 70c (2,000,000 at 7c pre consolidation) said it was damn hard to sell when the time came as the liquidity wasn't there. Had fewer shares post consolidation but also had far more large holders so liquidity dried up. The only way was multiple sells at various prices and hefty brokerage to go with it no doubt.


----------



## barney

barney said:


> *A close under 11.5 would be a surprise*, but the market will do what it does of course.






tech/a said:


> *Why my stop is there*.




Just out of curiosity tech. 

As there has been a lot of interest in the T/A - F/A  aspect on this thread .... For the benefit of those technical analyst's, who are interested in your process of trading this, and various other stocks (and I'm sure there are many) .... 

Perhaps you could elaborate on how you would have traded the current position in certain hypothetical real time scenarios ...... 

I am assuming your 11.5 stop point is a "mental stop"?  ..... yes?

Had the market reached 11.5 on Friday, would you have used your discretion as to whether you closed the position immediately .... or ...

Would you have waited to see what may have eventuated at the close?

Had the Sp continued to drop on Friday, I am assuming you would have closed (had you not already done so at 11.5)   at 11 cents ?  ..... yes?

Had the Sp closed at 11.5 on Friday (your Stop level),  you would now be placing an order to sell on Monday's open?   ....Yes? .....or ....

Would you wait to see the open on Monday before making a final decision?

Assuming you would be selling on Monday had Friday closed at 11.5 .....  at what price would you place your sell order in on Monday's open, particularly if you were unable to watch the open auction?

I realise this is all hypothetical, but it may give some newer traders an insight into how a seasoned technical trader approaches a situation which may be turning against them ...... Not that I see PEN in that light in the lightest

ps Probably could have placed this question on another thread, but it seems pertinent to the PEN thread in particular, as there seems to be quite a bit of interest in the t/a -f/a jousting:bazooka::sword:


----------



## tech/a

I actually took the trade with the Logical stop placed at 10.5c which is below BOTH the 11.5 and 11c levels--both were swamped with supply.

On Friday I moved my stop UP to 11.5c as I felt the market in general was weak.
It was but PEN remained resilient.

This is a Hard stop one which is placed in the market I Dont have mental stops.
All stops if hit are executed---then on to the next.

Its only a baby position at the moment.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> I actually took the trade with the Logical stop placed at 10.5c which is below BOTH the 11.5 and 11c levels--both were swamped with supply.
> 
> On Friday I moved my stop UP to 11.5c as I felt the market in general was weak.
> It was but PEN remained resilient.
> 
> This is a Hard stop one which is placed in the market I Dont have mental stops.
> All stops if hit are executed---then on to the next.
> 
> Its only a baby position at the moment.
> 
> View attachment 41337




A friend of mine invested a very conservative amount at 3 cents and is very happy with his baby position ..... He wont have to fork out any additional money for Xmas presents for a few years

So if you get an intraday drop to 11.5 you are out .... 
Assuming the trade goes in your favour, do you have a projected Exit point, or basically just read it on a day to day basis?


----------



## tech/a

Like all trades if it warrents (through analysis) I'll add to it.
If (as with any trade) I eventually get some equity in it the analysis will alter to longer term and the trade will be managed that way.
So at this point length of trade is un known.
Personally anyone who has just entered like I have--- have entered very very late in this current move.
I expect this will be a short term trade with future opportunities coming with a correction phase.
This is a personal view ---not currently held by the market or (Now) analysis.

If it drops to 11.5c yes ill be out.


----------



## mattryanshares

Correct me if Im wrong but this is a pretty substantial buy??

Is this the end of 13.5???

10:21:04 AM 0.135 7,000,000 945,000.00

The big boys are buying this stock now????
Be interesting to see who it was, ie if its a new big holder or someone topping up???


----------



## barney

mattryanshares said:


> Correct me if Im wrong but this is a pretty substantial buy??
> 
> Is this the end of 13.5???
> 
> 10:21:04 AM 0.135 *7,000,000* ....... *$945,000.00*





Hang Seng is at it again

Serious money thats for sure!


----------



## Megacents

I just wonder who is behind that UBS front.

Good it be a utility??


----------



## mattryanshares

Some decent buys at 14 cents as well??11:22:27 AM	0.140	400,000	56,000.00	*
11:22:27 AM	0.140	339,800	47,572.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	280,000	39,200.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	10,000	1,400.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	1,000,000	140,000.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	70,000	9,800.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	400,000	56,000.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	500,000	70,000.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	500,000	70,000.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	300,000	42,000.00	*
11:22:05 AM	0.140	350,000	49,000.00	*


----------



## hangseng

barney said:


> Hang Seng is at it again
> 
> Serious money thats for sure!




Lol

I refer you to my last chart of fundamental technical analysis.

Absolutely no surprise to me, as it won't be when PEN goes much higher


----------



## tech/a

Bought a few more.
Progressing strongly now from a T/A view.
Rising on average volume (supply is not impeding).


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Bought a few more.
> Progressing strongly now from a T/A view.
> Rising on average volume (supply is not impeding).




hmmmm, "average volume"....not a bad day in the park I would say. At least above average volume, but all good you did make that call rather early.

However PEN is progressing strongly in every aspect now.

Currently has a market capitalisation eligible for entry to the ASX300. The next adjustment by the ASX at the end of March I believe. Be interesting to see if PEN gets a guernsey.

Fundamentally what is about to happen, as publisied by PEN, will progress PEN even further.

I suppose the stars are simply lining up for PEN now. After some terming PEN the "joke stock of the ASX' (elsewhere), it is clear PEN is going to beat to the line the other uranium hopefuls and may even do so far better than expected ("aquisitions" of "near term producerss).

Yes both fundamentaly and technically PEN is now looking outstanding...

Looks like barney wins the lotto tickets...dig deep noe tech/a


----------



## Market Depth

Got a call from an old friend of mine today. To see if I'd bought into PEN. "Mate" I said, "Been on it since late October". "GOOD LAD! GOOD LAD!" he replied. He's in his 80's nowdays He was my trading superviser, back in the old Morgans stockbroking days, taught me a hell of allot about the markets. This is the first time however, I've bought a stock well before him And he was rarely wrong. One of the few people who I respect in the trading world.


----------



## mattryanshares

I though it was a great day!! Kinda wanted to have a few high 5's with a few beers around the computer screen after close but no one seemed to be posting!!

i dont think ive seen a single buy of 7,000,000 since ive been watching this stock?? And it was at 0.135  

Still valentines day and all so everyone should be smiling!!!


----------



## mattryanshares

Market Depth said:


> Got a call from an old friend of mine today. To see if I'd bought into PEN. "Mate" I said, "Been on it since late October". "GOOD LAD! GOOD LAD!" he replied. He's in his 80's nowdays He was my trading superviser, back in the old Morgans stockbroking days, taught me a hell of allot about the markets. This is the first time however, I've bought a stock well before him And he was rarely wrong. One of the few people who I respect in the trading world.




When did he get in and how much did you beat him by??


----------



## Market Depth

mattryanshares said:


> When did he get in and how much did you beat him by??




I bought the Breakout @ 4.2 in mid October Matt. He bought the breakout @ 7 in December. The 'Old Bugger' is getting a bit slow in his old age


----------



## tech/a

*Barney*

Systems 8 Oz Lotto.
50/50 in the winnings
you pick 4 numbers and so will I
(5,17,26,42) Ill buy it tomorrow.
Deal?


----------



## mattryanshares

tech/a said:


> *Barney*
> 
> Systems 8 Oz Lotto.
> 50/50 in the winnings
> you pick 4 numbers and so will I
> (5,17,26,42) Ill buy it tomorrow.
> Deal?




I would of though the tech in you would of had some system for picking the numbers mate!!!


----------



## mattryanshares

Purd2 said:


> Hey Tech/a  Have you Steve Nison's book on candlestick charting?
> I have a copy on my computer if you would like it. I fluked a free download ages ago. Anyway let me know and I would be happy to send it to you. P




Hey Purd2

Any chance i could get a copy of that book?? I sent you a PM with my details.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> *Barney*
> 
> Systems 8 Oz Lotto.
> 50/50 in the winnings
> you pick 4 numbers and so will I
> (5,17,26,42) Ill buy it tomorrow.
> Deal?





No worries Tech,    I was looking for 3 consecutive days at 14 or above though to confirm the price action, but if you are happy to win the lottery early, I'm in !!

Interesting that you have picked 5 and 17 tech .... definitely with you on those two

Four  numbers eh?   ........

I'll pick three ...... and if you don't mind *Hang, would you pick the lucky last one for me*  


My three  ........ 3,   7,   and  29.    (29 is my wonderful wifes choice :1luvu


Good luck tech, and thank you Hang for your tireless research


----------



## DB008

l've traded this stock a few times now.

This time l'll hold onto them for a longer period than previously. 

Uranium seems to have turned the corner + heading higher. China is building N-Power-plants like no tomorrow.


----------



## barney

barney said:


> I'll pick three ...... and if you don't mind Hang, would you pick the lucky last one for me
> 
> 
> My three  ........ 3,   7,   and  29.




It appears Hang Seng is still out celebrating somewhere.

In his absence tech, the obvious last number for the way we want this to perform this year is 1

So my four are   *1,   3,    7,   and 29*

Good luck


----------



## breaker

tech/a
how did you pick up some more  i have a buy at 14 but there are 50 others in front of me
 even others I have picked up have taken days
Or do I buy at market 145
Thanks


----------



## tech/a

I paid 14.5c


----------



## initforthemoney

Topped up again at 14c today, along with quiet a few others it seems.


----------



## mattryanshares

I'll post this here as its related to PEN if its in the wrong spot please just PM me and i wont do it again. 

I accumulated 140000 Pen shares for an average cost of .103 and sold them this morning for .135 a profit of $4492.00

I then bough 180000 Penoa at .105 so in essense i improved my holdings in Pen by 40000 shares for a cost of about $50. I bought Penoa as they were cheaper then Penoc. I also have 125000 Penoc. 

Now i plan on holding Pen long term so i think this was a good trade on my part.

Ive got about 90k capital losses so wont pay any tax. 

Was my decision good bad or otherwise??


----------



## breaker

Thanks tech/a that makes sense


----------



## tech/a

> Ive got about 90k capital losses so wont pay any tax.




What from trading???


----------



## tech/a

OK Barney we're in!

Bought 2 games so we have one each---Identical numbers.

*BUT THERE'S MORE*

PLUS
2 consecutive weeks!!
Just incase they stuff up the draw this week they have a chance to get it right next week.

PLUS
Here are the numbers so everyone can barrack tonight!!!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> OK Barney we're in!
> 
> Bought 2 games so we have one each---Identical numbers.
> 
> *BUT THERE'S MORE*
> 
> PLUS
> 2 consecutive weeks!!
> Just incase they stuff up the draw this week they have a chance to get it right next week.
> 
> PLUS
> Here are the numbers so everyone can barrack tonight!!!
> View attachment 41380




Thanks for that tech .....  I almost thought I was gona get a set of steak knives there for a second!!

Now any chance of bumping the Sp back over 14.5


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Thanks for that tech .....  I almost thought I was gona get a set of steak knives there for a second!!
> 
> Now any chance of bumping the Sp back over 14.5




Sure Ill use my winnings!


----------



## breaker

mattryanshares said:


> I'll post this here as its related to PEN if its in the wrong spot please just PM me and i wont do it again.
> 
> I accumulated 140000 Pen shares for an average cost of .103 and sold them this morning for .135 a profit of $4492.00
> 
> I then bough 180000 Penoa at .105 so in essense i improved my holdings in Pen by 40000 shares for a cost of about $50. I bought Penoa as they were cheaper then Penoc. I also have 125000 Penoc.
> 
> Now i plan on holding Pen long term so i think this was a good trade on my part.
> 
> Ive got about 90k capital losses so wont pay any tax.
> 
> Was my decision good bad or otherwise??




That may or may not have been the correct trade I cant comment as I dont trade options but you have made some doosies


----------



## mattryanshares

breaker said:


> That may or may not have been the correct trade I cant comment as I dont trade options but you have made some doosies




These option trade exactly like shares.

ASX code, Penoa  and Penoc

Penoa expires June 2012 and costs 3 cents per share to convert to a full share.
Penoc expires June 2015 and costs 3 cents per share to convert to a full share.

No my think was i always intended to hang on long term with Pen. 



So by selling 140000 Pen shares at 13.5 cents allowed me to purchase 180000 shares of Penoa. 

Now lets say i hung onto the Pen shares until they doubled or were 27 cents. I'd of made 140000 times 13.5 = $18900.00

But with the Penoa shares id of made 180000 times 13.5 = $24300 sure the option would only be worth 24 cents but im in front!

Or to double my money with the Penoa the share price of Pen only has to reach 24 cents a whole 3 cents earlier than if it was the full share price of 13.5 cents.

The risk is if it drops ill loose more but im in this for the long haul and believe im now in a better position.

Note, The 90K in Capital loss is thanks to a financial UNadviser, Managed funds and the GFC.
Hope all the above makes sense, if you want to discuss maybe PM me as that way we wont get to far off track with Pen, though this is still Pen related obviously.

Also if the SP drops with Pen it drops at .005 increments. 
When Penoa drops to .100 the increments are then .001 this allows me to set up stops more to my likeing!!
All of the above is the ramblings of a newbie who has thought it through the best i can, would like to hear suggestions from experienced traders if possible.


----------



## burglar

mattryanshares said:


> These option trade exactly like shares.
> 
> ASX code, Penoa  and Penoc.




All you have said here is true ,,,... as long as PEN SP stays up.
Not to rain on your parade, but I pose as an example ...

EXMOA, no buyers, will possibly expire worthless in Dec 2012


----------



## mattryanshares

burglar said:


> All you have said here is true ,,,... as long as PEN SP stays up.
> Not to rain on your parade, but I pose as an example ...
> 
> EXMOA, no buyers, will possibly expire worthless in Dec 2012




So worst case i pay the 3 cents and convert them to full shares and im in exactly the same boat as if i bought the full share in the 1st place???

Or is there some technicallity where i may not be able to convert to a full share??

Just checked exmoa and exm and both are fairly worthless? If Pen was to drop to 3 cents then Penoa would be worthless but i bought penoa 3 cents cheaper so i guess its all relative??


----------



## burglar

mattryanshares said:


> So worst case i pay the 3 cents and convert them to full shares and im in exactly the same boat as if i bought the full share in the 1st place???
> 
> Or is there some technicallity where i may not be able to convert to a full share??
> 
> Just checked exmoa and exm and both are fairly worthless? If Pen was to drop to 3 cents then Penoa would be worthless but i bought penoa 3 cents cheaper so i guess its all relative??




EXM is currently looking worthless, but wasn't always the case.


And PEN is different!! Right!!?
And yes, it's all relative! 

Just happy you are aware of the pitfalls! 

burglar


----------



## tech/a

> Also if the SP drops with Pen it drops at .005 increments.
> When Penoa drops to .100 the increments are then .001 this allows me to set up stops more to my likeing!!
> All of the above is the ramblings of a newbie who has thought it through the best i can, would like to hear suggestions from experienced traders if possible.




Nice thought but liquidity will kill you.
It will become very gappy.


----------



## burglar

mattryanshares said:


> ... Was my decision good bad or otherwise??




On probability, I would say good!

My long term experience with options has been a roller coaster ride ... 
an enjoyable learning experience ... 
but not profitable. 
I was hoping that they may still become profitable,
never know your luck in the big city.

One person I had heard about, was making good money on options.
Next thing he took everything out,
and looked for something less stressful !!


----------



## mattryanshares

Pen Signs Uranium agreement

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110216/pdf/01151280.pdf

The terms of the sale agreement will see Peninsula supply U3O8 over a period of 7 years.
Production is targeted to commence at the Lance Projects in 2012 and build to 1,500,000 lbs
U3O8 per year (with a plant capacity of 3,000,000 lbs U3O8 per year).
Peninsula’s Executive Chairman Mr. Gus Simpson said “The agreement is an important
milestone for Peninsula and the Company plans to conclude sales to other tier one utilities to
ensure that both the price and quality of partner are optimized.”


----------



## TheAbyss

Cant be a bad thing for a company wth a market cap of approx $275m to do a deal worth around $75m over 7 years can it?

They have sold 1.1mt (3%) of their current certified resource of 33mt. Leaves a lot of scope for future growth of company and shareholder value doesnt it?


----------



## mattryanshares

Just hit 15.5 cents????

Where's tech and barney?? Or did they win lotto last night??

maybe that was what wiped 15 cent mark????


----------



## barney

mattryanshares said:


> Just hit 15.5 cents????
> 
> Where's tech and barney?? Or *did they win lotto last night*??
> 
> maybe that was what wiped 15 cent mark????




Hah .... I wish! ..... we had it in the bag until they started pulling out the wrong numbers 



Been out for a while ..... course of sales has been interesting.  A couple of big buy orders Line Wiped 15 ..... 

Then the supply "appeared" to come back to the buyers at 15  ..... 

Happy to be a buy/holder on PEN, but watching the large traders/accumulators is very enlightening


----------



## barney

An update for those who like to use statistics as part of their technical analysis ...

16th Feb .......

Price Level .... Volume ...........

13.5         ............ 6,105,220

14            ...............    4,829,794 

*14.5          ............. 22,267,656

15             ................    30,660,379*

15.5          ............... 2,199,814

On paper, that makes 14.5 look pretty solid.


----------



## indeck

there seemed to be a fairly significant number of buyers (8-10m) at 14.5 throughout the day.  Seeing so many at 15 is encouraging.

I was long on PEN but sold out expecting the retraction from 13 to 10 which didnt happen, day traded it for a little while but now i'm planning on keeping it for awhile.  Definately my favourite stock :grinsking


----------



## mattryanshares

Hartleys latest update!

http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--wugiwethoh.pdf

Price Target Increased to 16cps
We have tweaked our model based on the sales price achieved and
decreased the dilution effect of any future financing due to the increased
share price. The result is an increase in our valuation from 17cps to 18cps,
and we have increased our price target from 14cps to 16cps.


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> An update for those who like to use statistics as part of their technical analysis ...
> 
> 16th Feb .......
> 
> Price Level .... Volume ...........
> 
> 13.5         ............ 6,105,220
> 
> 14            ...............    4,829,794
> 
> *14.5          ............. 22,267,656
> 
> 15             ................    30,660,379*
> 
> 15.5          ............... 2,199,814
> 
> On paper, that makes 14.5 look pretty solid.




Means absolutely bugger all.
Volume will move AT MARKET.


----------



## Miner

tech/a said:


> Means absolutely bugger all.
> Volume will move AT MARKET.




It reminds me of my school teacher who often used to say 

"When  a cat gets angry because of its failures  it can not do any thing but scratching on the  wall under desperation and frustration. But please do consider it is only the temperment the Cat is basically harmless "  .

No further comments


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Volume will move AT MARKET.




With that in mind, what is your interpretation of what happened at the 14 cent Price Level today?



tech/a said:


> Means absolutely bugger all.




Have to disagree with you on that one tech (and not just because we lost Lotto:


1) Monday was a high volume day .... Close at *14.5*
2) Tuesday tested Mondays Range on *lower volume*

Today would have been telling if it followed Tuesday's lead, but instead,

a) We opened with solid volume at 13.5  
b) Basically *bypassed* the 14 cent level  (Bullish)
c) Had strong trading at 14.5 cent level 
d) Had *stronger* trading at 15 cent level (Bullish)

I'm not really seeing why you give no creedence to the 14.5 level?


----------



## tech/a

> Volume will move AT MARKET.




Is there something about "AT Market" you* Dont* understand?
Volume sitting at levels has little meaning----that which hits market does.

Volume that blasts through a level of in market buyers OR sellers
will come from *outside* of the buying and selling depth.

Reading that which has been placed in the auction has little to no bearing on where price will trade.
If you look at depth this morning it will be vastly different to last night.
If the DJIA fell last night it would be very different again.

Supply AND demand will hit AT MARKET.
The only time it *doesn't* is at Auction.

*Miner*

You *IDIOT*
I'm a *DUCK*


----------



## chopper

tech/a said:


> Is there something about "AT Market" you* Dont* understand?
> Volume sitting at levels has little meaning----that which hits market does.
> 
> Volume that blasts through a level of in market buyers OR sellers
> will come from *outside* of the buying and selling depth.
> 
> Reading that which has been placed in the auction has little to no bearing on where price will trade.
> If you look at depth this morning it will be vastly different to last night.
> If the DJIA fell last night it would be very different again.
> 
> Supply AND demand will hit AT MARKET.
> The only time it *doesn't* is at Auction.
> 
> *Miner*
> 
> You *IDIOT*
> I'm a *DUCK*




Good stuff tech/a, I read your stuff with interest. Have you looked at Zambezi Resources? It has been going very well the last couple of days.


----------



## tech/a

> Have you looked at Zambezi Resources?




NO But

Interesting. I like it.


----------



## hangseng

Draft Permit for 5 DWDW has been issued, see attached.

Great news as once finalised it will permit PEN to commence construction at Ross.


Moving right along...


----------



## boff

hangseng said:


> Draft Permit for 5 DWDW has been issued, see attached.
> 
> Great news as once finalised it will permit PEN to commence construction at Ross.
> 
> Moving right along...




Nice one H - thanks for the info, much appreciated.


----------



## Miner

I am surprised if it was not reported at thsi thread earlier
id=29453&jmid=4779&j=258824076&utm_source=JangoMail&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=WNN+Daily%3A+States+sue+NRC+over+on%2Dsite+waste+storage+%28258824076%29&utm_content=duttafamily%40gmail%2Ecom

*Peninsula signs uranium sales agreement* (published in WNN ) 
16 February 2011 
Following swiftly on the heels of the recent announcement of an expanded resource base at its Lance uranium projects in Wyoming, USA, Peninsula energy has entered into a sales agreement to supply 1.15 million pounds of U3O8 (442 tonnes U) to "one of the largest producers of energy in the US." The terms of the contract specify an "escalated fixed price" for the supply of a "fixed quantity and term." The weighted average price is said to be consistent with the average term price used in the project's pre-feasibility study. In a statement made in July 2010, Peninsula predicted "life of mine average C1 Cash operating costs of $14 per pound U3O8", and a net present value after tax of $162 million. Peninsula recently announced an upgrade to the resource at the Lance projects, with some 33 million pounds of U3O8 (12,600 tonnes U) now identified. Last month, Peninsula submitted an application to the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality for a permit to construct and operate an in-situ leach (ISL) facility, which is currently scheduled to start operating in 2012.


----------



## Miner

tech/a said:


> Is there something about "AT Market" you* Dont* understand?
> Volume sitting at levels has little meaning----that which hits market does.
> 
> *Miner*
> 
> You *IDIOT*
> I'm a *DUCK*




Tech/A

For a change I should complement you this time.

You were 200% right and a a GENIUS. I am an IDIOT because I failed to recognise your geniusness,  chose to read your postings (and waste my time)  and even interacting with them. Congratulations my friend. 

Now I am learning from a DUCK. I will hide your postings henceforth, refrain reading them and will move on as a fundi. Rest assured I will not reply any of your threads henceforth saving from  ulcer in my stomach.

Sorry PEN holders for this unrelated message.

Good luck on PEN holding and tradings.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> *Reading that which has been placed in the auction has little to no bearing on where price will trade.*




Now just so we are on the same page here tech ......

You do realise that the Volume and Price Levels I posted yesterday were End Of Day levels for the day .... ie *They were the actual levels traded during the day* .... not sitting in the Market Depth


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Now just so we are on the same page here tech ......
> 
> You do realise that the Volume and Price Levels I posted yesterday were End Of Day levels for the day .... ie *They were the actual levels traded during the day* .... not sitting in the Market Depth




Sorry NO I didnt know or recognise that.
Interesting stats.
Where do you get them?
14.5 and 15c are now the new 11-11.5c


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> *Sorry NO I didnt know or recognise that.
> Interesting stats.
> Where do you get them?
> 14.5 and 15c are now the new 11-11.5c*





I figured that must be the case ........ You were starting to worry me with all the "At Market" banter.  It just didn't make any sense to me why you were serving me up when I was giving sensible info

Anyway, as I type, the buy orders are being pulled at 14.5.  

This may give the large holding traders room to bump this around a bit, so the resilience of the smaller traders might be tested in the short term.  Had to happen sooner or later.

re the stats .... I just put the course of sales data into excell and sort/add the price levels ..... those stats could tell an interesting story over the next couple of days


----------



## tech/a

Actually what your doing is similar to a degree to "Market Profile"
What your showing is the "Value area"--- in MP terminology

This means price is likely to fall back to it at times of retracement.
The next day another Value area is established unless you get like the 11-11.5c level where you have multiple levels recorded.

Hence the closest is the most likely to hold and the Strongest is the hardest to break through or breakaway from.


----------



## hangseng

Miner said:


> I am surprised if it was not reported at thsi thread earlier
> 
> *Peninsula signs uranium sales agreement* (published in WNN )
> 16 February 2011




I have to leave something for other posters miner 

The significance of both of these announcements will become apparentand soon.

When the DWDW permit is issued not many realise that PEN will immediately begin construction of same and shortly thereafter they will commence construction of the main plant.

The DWDW permit is the most significant permit besides the main operating permit.

The announcement you posted is significant to both the DFS and funding.

I now await the outcome, of which IMO is inevitable.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> I have to leave something for other posters miner




Happy to oblige Hang.

Karoo is showing early signs of becoming a bit of a monster:taz:

Highlights:
• Re-Logging of historic Union Carbide holes confirms intervals of thick, high
grade uranium mineralisation at Site 29
• A total of 20 significant intersections (>0.15 grade x thickness ft% eU3O8)
achieved to date
• Best intercepts include:
• 7.0 feet @ 1,522ppm eU3O8
• 6.2 feet @ 1,506ppm eU3O8
• Reverse Circulation Drilling commences on Site 29 to assess molybdenum
mineralisation
• Site preparation has commenced on Site 22 prior to re-logging and drilling
program


----------



## mattryanshares

barney said:


> Happy to oblige Hang.
> 
> Karoo is showing early signs of becoming a bit of a monster:taz:
> 
> Highlights:
> • Re-Logging of historic Union Carbide holes confirms intervals of thick, high
> grade uranium mineralisation at Site 29
> • A total of 20 significant intersections (>0.15 grade x thickness ft% eU3O8)
> achieved to date
> • Best intercepts include:
> • 7.0 feet @ 1,522ppm eU3O8
> • 6.2 feet @ 1,506ppm eU3O8
> • Reverse Circulation Drilling commences on Site 29 to assess molybdenum
> mineralisation
> • Site preparation has commenced on Site 22 prior to re-logging and drilling
> program




The thing that struck me is this is only 7 ft down? This is planned to be an open cut mine to isnt it??? You'd nearly did that out with a shovel!!


----------



## prawn_86

mattryanshares said:


> The thing that struck me is this is only 7 ft down? This is planned to be an open cut mine to isnt it??? You'd nearly did that out with a shovel!!




7ft is the length of the intersection, not the depth. As far as i understand it, haven't read the actual ann but thats how it usually is


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> I have to leave something for other posters miner
> 
> The significance of both of these announcements will become apparentand soon.
> 
> 
> I now await the outcome, of which IMO is inevitable.




You bet HS . I am posting  it for you as you must be too drunk after continously cleaning your throat with bottles of Granage    and other fundies.
http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=PEN&timeframe=D&period=W
Also see Hartley report on 16 Feb .

tech chart will not show it but the level of uranium grade published today at ASX is extra ordinarily high. As a comparison Yeelirrie Grade owned by BHPB Uranium  as reported in WMC report available from public domain is about 1083 ppm max, BMN is about 580 ppm and PEN upgrade far better than that.

If not already PEN will shoot up this morning again (that means HS will top at the tipping competition as well)


----------



## mattryanshares

prawn_86 said:


> 7ft is the length of the intersection, not the depth. As far as i understand it, haven't read the actual ann but thats how it usually is




Oill by the looks of this its only 20m and 13 m??? Bob cat depth, 



Site 29 QFN0013 23.0 23.7 0.7 2.3 1517 0.35
Site 29 QFN0034 11.1 13.2 2.1 6.9 1522 1.05


----------



## barney

PEN has had some high volume trading days, but I don't recall ever seeing it on the Commsec most bought list?

CommSec Most Popular Stocks

*Sells* 

NAB 
CBA 
NCM 
AXA 
QBE 
MYR 

*Buys* 

ANZ	 
TLS	 
BHP	 
WES	 
RIO	 
*PEN*


----------



## barney

barney said:


> CommSec Most Popular Stocks
> 
> 
> 
> *Buys*
> 
> ANZ
> TLS
> BHP
> WES
> RIO
> *PEN*




Starting to make a little sense now

Recent orders ....

4,307,483	$646,122.45	


3,529,222	$529,383.30	


4,400,041	$660,006.15


4,150,037	$622,505.55

Nice


----------



## mattryanshares

barney said:


> PEN has had some high volume trading days, but I don't recall ever seeing it on the Commsec most bought list?
> 
> CommSec Most Popular Stocks
> 
> *Sells*
> 
> NAB
> CBA
> NCM
> AXA
> QBE
> MYR
> 
> *Buys*
> 
> ANZ
> TLS
> BHP
> WES
> RIO
> *PEN*




Hey barney well picked up, Ive been lookin for Pen on there but never seen it.

I think its really interesting but what ive noticed is 90% of the time if one of my shares are on the sell side then they go up in price. If there on the buy side they ussually are going down in price and some/ most times in a big way.
The fact Pen is on the buy side and increaseing or holding 15 to 15.5 cents must be a good thing???
Though i dont know???????


----------



## barney

mattryanshares said:


> Hey barney well picked up, Ive been lookin for Pen on there but never seen it.
> 
> I think its really interesting but what ive noticed is 90% of the time if one of my shares are on the sell side then they go up in price. *If they're on the buy side they usually are going down in price* and some/ most times in a big way.
> The fact Pen is on the buy side and increasing or holding 15 to 15.5 cents must be a good thing???
> Though i dont know???????




True Matt  .... Lets see if PEN can buck that trend 

Todays  ....   Price levels /................ Volume Traded

................  14.5  .............................1,566,104

................  15   ..............................32,106,743

................  15.5  ............................ 8,340,866


The 14.5  support level level is starting to look even more solid, but nothing is set in stone of course ........ Very happy to see a lot of shares changing hands at this level, which should set a more solid base for any further bounces


----------



## hangseng

prawn_86 said:


> 7ft is the length of the intersection, not the depth. As far as i understand it, haven't read the actual ann but thats how it usually is




That is correct prawn.

I am still hoping as they progress that the "masking" aspect will become evident. If it does then things should get just a little exciting...again.

Spot on miner, the grades are very high. It is one of the reasons I selected PEN over some others in the first place, with the main one being the ISR advantage in Wyoming.

The initial celebrations are over miner, if I kept up celebrating I wouldn't get to see and enjoy the final outcome.

Speaking of charts, PEN's weekly is particularly attractive...


----------



## mattryanshares

Hey HS i see you said the chart looks good. On the HC website Moneybags and posted a chart and these comments.
Any chance you could throw your chart up and comment???
Where's Tech A these days? Any analysis would be great too.
+Closed off low
+Long termers shouldn't worry about the negatives

-Turn date quite possible
-Rejected channel at 0.155
-MACD turned down
-Stoch overbought and crossing down

May find support at 0.125 (23.6%FibR). Failing that, 0.115 (channel support, and depending how long it takes, possibly MA support). As such I have split my order over 0.125 and 0.115.

If it goes to 17c tomorrow I expect a lynch mob and fundamentalists smugly telling me I shoulda held. I'm okay with that, I've acted on what I believe is the statistically more likely outcome.

ST sell, LT buy.


----------



## tech/a

Stopped out at 13.5c


----------



## hangseng

I never saved it Matty, however I can duplicate it and will as soon as I can to show what I was looking at.

Another very healthy correction today, however I noticed at was well supported at 13.5. Will it hold or is there a bit more? No idea and what will be will be, but I had another dip in today at 13.5 as I liked what I saw.


----------



## mattryanshares

hangseng said:


> I never saved it Matty, however I can duplicate it and will as soon as I can to show what I was looking at.
> 
> Another very healthy correction today, however I noticed at was well supported at 13.5. Will it hold or is there a bit more? No idea and what will be will be, but I had another dip in today at 13.5 as I liked what I saw.




Haha,
Im waiting in the que at 10.5 for some more Penoc, see what happens. Those Penoc blokes are holding tight though, i know i won't be selling the ones i got for 8.1 cents.


----------



## howmanyru

axelord, not much discussion here and too much on HC  , don't figure ? 
I bought in at 14.5c a few days ago, a bit of a high entry point considering the last few days sell off, but don't see this stock staying low for too long.


----------



## newanimal

i got in along with you at 14.5 Howman. I almost held off thinking a correction looked very due  oh well...all should end well.  Looks like a 50% retrace now (from last correction). I suspect  buyers entering in  here and sp resuming back up from here. Wish i had some loose cash to throw in before it does.


----------



## mattryanshares

newanimal said:


> i got in along with you at 14.5 Howman. I almost held off thinking a correction looked very due  oh well...all should end well.  Looks like a 50% retrace now (from last correction). I suspect  buyers entering in  here and sp resuming back up from here. Wish i had some loose cash to throw in before it does.




14 cent close let see where we close tomorrow!!!


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> Another very healthy correction today, however I noticed at was well supported at 13.5. Will it hold or is there a bit more? No idea and what will be will be, but I had another dip in today at 13.5 as I liked what I saw.





As you said the other day Hang .... the correction is healthy.  A tree doesn't grow to full strength unless you  prune a few loose branches out when its young. 

Lower Volume yesterday to be expected with the shaky global markets, but still holding up well.

(Thursday 24th Feb)

Price Level........Shares Traded........Value Traded


12.5 .................. 73,333.................$9,166 

13 ....................7,625,810 .............$991,355 

13.5...................8,183,638 ............$1,104,792 

14 ................... 328,576 .................$46,000


----------



## barney

barney said:


> As you said the other day Hang .... the correction is healthy.  A tree doesn't grow to full strength unless you  prune a few loose branches out when its young.
> 
> Lower volume yesterday to be expected with the shaky global markets, but still holding up well.
> 
> (Thursday 24th Feb)
> 
> Price Level........Shares Traded........Value Traded
> 
> 
> 12.5 .................. 73,333.................$9,166
> 
> 13 ....................7,625,810 .............$991,355
> 
> 13.5...................8,183,638 ............$1,104,792
> 
> 14 ................... 328,576 .................$46,000





Another Low Volume consolidation day around the 13-13.5 area ...... more than happy with that after the recent strong run up 

If the general market ranges down over the next week or two, PEN may drift a bit lower, but while ever the volumes are light, I won't be losing any sleep:sleeping:


*(Friday 25th Feb)*

Price Level........Shares Traded........Value Traded

13....................4,076,670 ............$529,967 


13.5 .................6,482,574 ............ $875,149 


14 .................... 1,595,511 ............ $223,371


----------



## hangseng

My chart musings for the weekend.

I believe we *'may'* see a retest of 11.5/12, but _*'more likely' *_another bounce (already done twice) of the centre trend channel at 12.5/13 to retest 15.5.

If 15.5 holds nexet resistance about 17c, with target 20c and then most likely another test of 17c.

I believe my more bullish stance is warranted as PEN has many significant announcements about to come out, some that change PEN completely. 

Also the double test and hold of 12.5 on down market days and the weakening negative periods of the Parabolic SAR (11, 8, 5, 3). Add to that PEN retested 12.5 on lower volume and the fact the On Balance Volume (OBV) continues to trend upward.


*Daily chart with comments:*
* Fib Extensions (Light blue)
* Fib Retracements (Red)
* Parabolic SAR (white dots)
* Linear Regression Channel (Trend channel - 3 yellow lines)


----------



## jonojpsg

hangseng said:


> My chart musings for the weekend.
> 
> I believe we *'may'* see a retest of 11.5/12, but _*'more likely' *_another bounce (already done twice) of the centre trend channel at 12.5/13 to retest 15.5.
> 
> If 15.5 holds nexet resistance about 17c, with target 20c and then most likely another test of 17c.
> 
> I believe my more bullish stance is warranted as PEN has many significant announcements about to come out, some that change PEN completely.
> 
> Also the double test and hold of 12.5 on down market days and the weakening negative periods of the Parabolic SAR (11, 8, 5, 3). Add to that PEN retested 12.5 on lower volume and the fact the On Balance Volume (OBV) continues to trend upward.
> 
> 
> *Daily chart with comments:*
> * Fib Extensions (Light blue)
> * Fib Retracements (Red)
> * Parabolic SAR (white dots)
> * Linear Regression Channel (Trend channel - 3 yellow lines)




Nice work hang  Looks like some "tech-nical" analysis there haha, but am with you on the scenario that 12.5/13 will hold firm now with upside being the risk


----------



## barney

jonojpsg said:


> am with you on the scenario that 12.5/13 will hold firm now with upside being the risk




Agree Jono.  Ideal scenario would be to see a nice easy push back through the recent highs on low/modest volume to verify that as a previous "accumulation zone"  ..... 

Probably more likely to see a bit of resistance at the 14.5-15 level you'd think.  There may be a few traders who got "caught" at the highs and may be happy to take a scratch trade if it revisits those levels.

Still happy to keep mine tucked under the matress  

*(Monday 28th Feb)*

Price Level........Shares Traded........Value Traded

12.5....................135,500 .............$16,937 


13 .....................6,690,687 ............ $869,788 


13.5 ................. 1,151,684 ............ $155,476


----------



## Megacents

Pretty solid support around the 13 cent mark. Can we assume this is the new lift off point for PEN sometime in the future.

The forum gets pretty quiet when not much happening re SP. 

Waiting for results from Karoo on site 29 and site 22 work should or already has started.

Events over seas are playing into the long term plans of PEN. The need for uranium for baseload energy production.

Another scenario to take into consideration is the supply imbalance in the USA. Pen/Strata has already signed a home grown contract. I believe the American utilities will be very eager to to get a potential home grown supply from a stable state which is also pro-uranium.

The quiet times are the ones to digest data and produce information.


----------



## hangseng

Announcement out this morning.

PEN has now been included to All Ordinaries Index.

Provided PEN holds the market cap required the next adustment will see PEN in the ASX300.

A feat not achieved by most of the uranium company hopefuls.


----------



## chensteiger

Hey all,

This is my first post on this forum, however I have been following the activities of this thread for the last 6 months.

I have held PEN for around 18 months and am very happy with the progression of this stock. A freshie to the stock market, I did plenty of research prior to committing to PEN when it acquired it's Lancing project. I just want to thank everyone here for the insightful information that has been provided, the fundamental perspectives of H/S, Miner, Barney, Megacent and co has been enlightening. The T/A and charting of Tech/A has also been extremely educational. 

I have a question regarding the recent ann on the introduction of PEN to the S and P All Ords Index. I realise that entry into the ASX 300 allows investment firms to acquire a greater percentage of PEN as it is still considered a speculative stock. *But what effect does entry to the All Ords Index have?*

Keep the conversations up, I am sure I speak for all when I state that 'your knowledge and expertise are greatly appreciated by all viewers, especially those that are too scared or shy to leave a comment'. 

Go PEN 

P.S: Gong Xi Fa Cai to you too HangSeng!!


----------



## hangseng

chensteiger said:


> I have a question regarding the recent ann on the introduction of PEN to the S and P All Ords Index. I realise that entry into the ASX 300 allows investment firms to acquire a greater percentage of PEN as it is still considered a speculative stock. *But what effect does entry to the All Ords Index have?*




Hi chesteiger, thanks for the kind words.

Basically it has the same affect in that funds can now buy PEN albeit at lower percentages, dependent on each funds invetment limitations. The ASX300 will permit higher percentages, as will the ASX200, ASX100 and ASX50.

If it wasn't before it will now be on fund managers watch lists, as the next step is entry to the ASX300. PEN must hold the required market cap for at least 6months to gain entry to the ASX300. Already the market cap is high enough, however PEN hasn't had that for the required 6 month period.

Funds will love the liquidity of PEN, an often overlooked benefit of having a high number of shares. Stocks with low liquidity are often overlooked, unless they provide good dividend returns and long term capital growth. 

PEN won't be providing dividends any time soon, but offers potentially very high short, medium and long term capital growth with excellent liquidity.

The games being played at the moment indicate to me PEN is already in the control of a large player. As long as the top20 keeps increasing as it has then we can be satisfied accumulation is the objective.

I trust that helps generally with your question.

As an example by the way. 
SDL rose around 10 times higher with entry to the ASX300, I was lucky enough to have bought way before it happened at around 8c and it was great to be in rather than out. There was other factors as well that contributed to the meteoric rise to over 80c, including appointment of George Jones to the board and the late Ken Talbot investing a massive sum into SDL. However entry to the ASX300 resulted in a notable significant rise.


----------



## Miner

chensteiger said:


> Hey all,
> 
> This is my first post on this forum, however I have been following the activities of this thread for the last 6 months.
> 
> I have held PEN for around 18 months and am very happy with the progression of this stock. A freshie to the stock market, I did plenty of research prior to committing to PEN when it acquired it's Lancing project. I just want to thank everyone here for the insightful information that has been provided, the fundamental perspectives of H/S, *Miner*,  Barney, Megacent and co has been enlightening. The T/A and charting of Tech/A has also been extremely educational.
> 
> I have a question regarding the recent ann on the introduction of PEN to the S and P All Ords Index. I realise that entry into the ASX 300 allows investment firms to acquire a greater percentage of PEN as it is still considered a speculative stock. *But what effect does entry to the All Ords Index have?*
> 
> Keep the conversations up, I am sure I speak for all when I state that 'your knowledge and expertise are greatly appreciated by all viewers, especially those that are too scared or shy to leave a comment'.
> 
> Go PEN
> 
> P.S: Gong Xi Fa Cai to you too HangSeng!!





Dear Chensteiger

Welcome to your first posting and thanks for your very thoughtful posting.
Sorry I did not visited ASF site for last few days due to my day to day work which pays my bill !
However I noticed HS has already responded to your query.

This post today is to thank and welcome you. I appreciate to see you have mentioned my name as contributor for PEN. But to be perfectly honest, I give the credit to HS and I do not deserve any credit for significant  posting on PEN as I was only following in line with his beliefs and thoughts with some additional research. HS is the show for PEN just like Condog is for AUT and EKA,  Agentm for ADi, BSEBS for BKP . 

When FMG started there were lot many non believers and now it is a darling for many including those non believers including Bell Potter Securities (Mr Q of BPS to be more specific). It is all history and I was unfortunate not to buy FMG due to commercial agreement when time was right

But I am convinced with several studies that PEN is going to be a mini FMG and would try to stick with it no matter what some of the techies have posted here .

Cheers 

Thanks


----------



## tugga

How many more months do we need to wait before we are embedded in the ASX300?


----------



## tech/a

Dont have a problem holding PEN just a matter of getting it set at a good price (If your late on the action like I am.)

Click to expand


----------



## TabJockey

I think your dreaming at 9.5c I would be very surprised if it was sold to that.


----------



## ColB

tech/a said:


> Dont have a problem holding PEN just a matter of getting it set at a good price (If your late on the action like I am.)
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> View attachment 41744




9.5c???  The best you will do is 12.5c Tech.  Get in while you can, it is going to bounce back to 14.5c in the next couple of days


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Dont have a problem holding PEN just a matter of getting it set at a good price (If your late on the action like I am.)
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> View attachment 41744





9.5 eh Tech  ..... Its only fair I give you the chance to get me back .... plus you would be getting one heck of an entry  ...... I'm in ....  18.5 cents before 9.5 cents 


Things in your favour:-

1)  9.5 is a Major support level and not totally out of the question if the Big Guys want to play hard ball with the share price to clean out some of us little guys ...

2)  General market looking a bit skittish


In my favour:- See chart ...

3)  *"A"*  50% level of major move = 10 cents (proven)

4)  *"B"*  the 50% retracement of the latest move = 12.5 cents  (not proven, but solid atm) .  If we extend the intermediate move from the the current retracement at 12.5 cents, we get an extension to around 17.5 cents


Lets go for 10 X $2 Lottery tickets this time ... Those Lotto balls are rigged :


----------



## chensteiger

Hey all

Thanks for the welcome 

My 2 cents worth - 

PEN is looking strong is a skittish market, all ords has been down around 2 - 3% in the last week or so from its high of 5000+. In the last 3 days, PEN's resistance of 0.13 has been constantly tested, however as of now, the demand has soaked up the supply and the level is holding well. The news of entry into the S and P All Ords index will likely give greater exposure of PEN to the general market. If nothing else a bit of free advertising is never a bad thing.

However, from a weekly candlestick charting point of view, a Bearish Three Outside Down Pattern has formed. If PEN ends this week at lower than 0.125 then that is a confirmation of a downward reversal.

I am thinking of putting a sell trigger at 0.12 if 0.125 resistance wipes.

Go PEN.


----------



## breaker

I see 13 as support and a bottom reversal pattern


----------



## tech/a

If you look hard enough I can see Micky Mouse.


----------



## barney

*WDEQ RELEASE DRAFT DEEP DISPOSAL WELL
PERMIT FOR LANCE URANIUM PROJECT*
Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has been advised that the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WDEQ) has informed the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) that the application by Peninsula’s wholly owned subsidiary, Strata Energy Inc. for an Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class 1 area permit is complete and technically adequate.

I think Gus Simpson may have had a few jam sessions with "Bachman Turner Overdrive", cause he just keeps "Takin Care of Business" 

Looking forward to the final permitting in due course


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> If you look hard enough I can see Micky Mouse.





You will find him and his mate daffy duck at 9.5c I am sure lol. 

Seriously though tech/a, no chance in hell is that going to occur without a major market crash. There isn't one fundamental (or technical) reason why it would occur otherwise. In fact there are so many imminent reasons fundamentally why it won't occur and it is more likely to head to the 20c Fib extensions as I displayed recently.

Support at 12.5 has proven solid in very poor market conditions since the 21/2/2011 stochs displays well oversold on the daily chart, OBV continues to rise and buy volume has increased again. How on earth do you believe 9.5c is going to occur?


----------



## tech/a

I'm glad you enjoy my Quackery!

While I dont expect a crash I do expect a sizable correction.
When is not exactly clear it could be in the making now.

PEN 
As an individual stock may well fair better than others infact I would expect it to.
If resources continue to rise or hold then this sector will fair well.
But as you know if there is a down turn and we see commodities come off---traders are skittish---they remember the GFC decimation of thier portfolio's well---so I never underestimate the fear of a crowd all running for the exit.

Must go Fog Horn Leg Horn is shouting drinks!


----------



## barney

barney said:


> General market looking a bit *skittish*







chensteiger said:


> PEN is looking strong is a *skittish* market







tech/a said:


> ---traders are *skittish*---




We must have all had the same English teacher : 


Todays price action.

PRICE LEVEL ....... SHARES TRADED

13 ....................... 3,498,281

13.5 .....................15,886,585

14 .........................6,427,192


----------



## maximusnz

Looks like there is Volume based at 13.5 cents. This Company looks good, lets hope for the best


----------



## barney

12.5 cent close today, but the bulk of trades were around the 13 cent level again ... 

A bit of de-risking going on in the General market which looks almost skittish !! 

Todays Price action:-  

*Price ............ Shares Traded*

12.5   ..............2,506,500

13 ....................7,508,062

13.5 ..................6,594,136

14 ....................202,104


----------



## barney

barney said:


> 12.5 cent close today, but the bulk of trades were around the 13 cent level again ...
> 
> A bit of de-risking going on in the General market which looks almost skittish !!
> 
> Todays Price action:-
> 
> *Price ............ Shares Traded*
> 
> 12.5   ..............2,506,500
> 
> 13 ....................7,508,062
> 
> 13.5 ..................6,594,136
> 
> 14 ....................202,104




A drop under the 12.5 support level today.  Not ideal, but totally predictable in the current market. 

22 odd million shares traded with over 15 million traded in the first half hour.  


Todays Price action:-  

*Price ............ Shares Traded*

12 ....................... 14,062,125

12.5 ..................... 8,781,928


----------



## BrightGreenGlow

Will the Japan Nuclear problem hinder PEN's SP on Tuesday? I would imagine so.. thoughts guys?


----------



## boff

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Will the Japan Nuclear problem hinder PEN's SP on Tuesday? I would imagine so.. thoughts guys?



Do you mean Monday?
I am very worried about this one holding up over the next few days. It'll be interesting to see how the uranium spot price holds up as well.
I am expecting a sharp sell off this morning in PEN, and I will probably sell as well, and look to buy back in under 9.5c in the next few days.
Today's announcement by PEN seems a bit of knee jerk (understandable), but to be clear they don't have a permit to mine, they have confirmed that the paperwork submitted is complete.

If the reactors in Japan hold up well, with no major leaks, it could be interpreted as vindication for the safety of nuclear power. Lessons have been learned, etc. However, no matter what happens, nuclear power will have a uphill struggle for the next few years (outside of China perhaps).


----------



## Miner

boff said:


> Do you mean Monday?
> I am very worried about this one holding up over the next few days. It'll be interesting to see how the uranium spot price holds up as well.
> I am expecting a sharp sell off this morning in PEN, and I will probably sell as well, and look to buy back in under 9.5c in the next few days.
> Today's announcement by PEN seems a bit of knee jerk (understandable), but to be clear they don't have a permit to mine, they have confirmed that the paperwork submitted is complete.
> 
> If the reactors in Japan hold up well, with no major leaks, it could be interpreted as vindication for the safety of nuclear power. Lessons have been learned, etc. However, no matter what happens, nuclear power will have a uphill struggle for the next few years (outside of China perhaps).




you seemed to have predicted correctly.
PEN dived down.
I put a large buy order at 9.8 thinking it will never come and forgot about it. I also failed to check the market this morning for the announcement as I was probably over confident.
the buy order got executed and PEN kept on going north .


----------



## Miner

TabJockey said:


> I think your dreaming at 9.5c I would be very surprised if it was sold to that.




unfortunately what was dream for many last week has become a more than reality today


----------



## youngone

Yep. Im out as well. 30% drop in a day is abit scary.


----------



## onthesword

looks like tech/a will now create a few bhagats...


----------



## thestevo888

youngone said:


> Yep. Im out as well. 30% drop in a day is abit scary.




A pretty massive setback, it's true. No matter how good a company is, if it's part of an industry in the news as much as nuclear power is this week, it's going to be an ugly story. I've invested a pretty massive percentage of my cash in this one, so it's depressing start to the week for me... but I still think this will come good long term. Only one of the plants is now considered dangerous in Japan according to the latest bulletin... still one too many, of course, and I'm pretty mindful that there is more at stake than just my cash. The spectre of people losing their lives is a good reminder of what really matters.

Would be glad to get some insights from HS and other people who've been looking at this industry for a while.


----------



## ChessPlayer

Luckily I have previously sold PEN at 13c. Now scooping up this opportunity to buy back in, got in at 0.09. I think this short drop will not last long.


----------



## TabJockey

ChessPlayer said:


> Luckily I have previously sold PEN at 13c. Now scooping up this opportunity to buy back in, got in at 0.09. I think this short drop will not last long.




Is PEN a good long term buy at 9c? yes it is. But I think that Uranium stocks are going to be in the doldrums for a while, check out market depth 100M sellers to 10M buyers people want OUT.

Buy for the long term but I think that a quick 30% gain is unlikely.


----------



## ChessPlayer

It seems to me it all depends on how this event in Japan plays out. If we avoid a more serious scenario like a complete meltdown, then I would like to think uranium stocks would start taking a turn for the better.


----------



## tech/a

H/S
Hope you've minimized the hemorrhaging 
11.5 and 13c top ups ouch
Some opportunity coming in 
Never under estimate fear Or greed for that matter


----------



## tech/a

Public holiday here buy and sell stops placed and both taken
Out!! Not near a computer

Bugga
Will watch for opportunity it will come but could see a bit of history repeat
For longterm holders that won't be good!!


----------



## Boggo

I would be reluctant to touch it until I saw a bounce off the next significant level around 0.08 and a break back above 0.10.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## Labtech

I topped up at 0.083 (with a longer term view). 
I'm thinking that the negative perception will change when people accept that if a magnitude 9 earthquake on top of a stack of reactors only has 'L4 local consequences' then all in all that's not too bad considering.  

Thats what I'm hoping anyway.

I guess while I'm here I'll also say thanks to the regular posters from both sides for the great thread.


----------



## bathuu

Horrible horrible day, As I am a beginner, I've learnt a valuable lesson from this situation.


----------



## tech/a

bathuu said:


> Horrible horrible day, As I am a beginner, I've learnt a valuable lesson from this situation.




What was that?


----------



## scotto83

So are people expecting this one to go bellow 8cents in the short term? or will it really depend on what happens in Japan with the reactors?

I've been watching this one for a few weeks thinking of buying in before the massive drop today.


----------



## bathuu

I was holding a loser too long. Could not follow ''Cut the losses'' principle in my trading. Things does not look any better in near term either.


----------



## tech/a

bathuu said:


> I was holding a loser too long. Could not follow ''Cut the losses'' principle in my trading. Things does not look any better in near term either.




When trading instruments that can halve itself in a week personally I don't care how much potential it has if it's going up get on it if it's going down get off it
Look for extremes and there maybe a good opportunity soon and take advantage of it
*The price action will show you!!!*
Will see if we can recognize the next opportunity technically


----------



## barney

bathuu said:


> Horrible horrible day, As I am a beginner, I've learnt a valuable lesson from this situation.




Unfortunately Bathuu, there will be many more of those lessons to learn if you continue in this crazy game of "Pass the Pig" ......  

And don't be sure it has anything to do with being a beginner in this instance ..... this was a bit of a "Black Swan" out of left field for holders of most Uranium stocks .... so a lot more than just beginners are copping some heat here ...... and not just Uranium stocks either for that matter !!  .......  

Position sizing, relative to Capital base, relative to Risk etc etc should be considered with every trade.


*Tech,    I will organise some Lottery tickets this week*.  The cash from winning the Lottery might help cover some of my losses today :22_yikes:     ...... 

Curious how we learn to cope with losing such large amounts of cash with very little emotion ...... I believe they call it experience


----------



## easylikesunday

barney said:


> Curious how we learn to cope with losing such large amounts of cash with very little emotion ...... I believe they call it experience




Diversify and dont invest more than you can afford to lose. 

BTW, I hold PEN, HOG and CCC  haha, but im still way ahead overall and Im confident in the stocks I've invested in.

Im just spewing I dont have any free cash to invest in downturns like this!


----------



## barney

*Todays Trades

Price ........ Shares Traded
*
8.2 ............3,187,715
8.3 .............10,007,852
8.4 ..............8,100,852
8.5 ..............16,740,358
8.6 ...............15,252,709
8.7 ................14,842,788
8.8 ................12,050,501
8.9 ................10,285,404
9.0 ................20,329,803
9.1 ................14,312,970
9.2 .................10,077,245
9.3 .................10,071,699
9.4 ..................8,507,057
9.5 ..................7,951,320
9.6 ...................4,309,789
9.7 ...................4,900,649
9.8 ...................7,001,660
9.9 .................. 23,478,040
10 .....................1,639,529

If you had to run a quick assessment of the numbers, you might conclude there was some initial hope at the open followed by some wishful buying from the 9.5 - 9.0 area .... then a bit of follow through to the downside from the mid 8's  to the low of the day ...... 

Way too early to call anything atm, but considering a lot of traders were in profit even at these sell levels, the numbers are not surprising. 

Until the large institutional holders start vacating their positions, I'm happy to sit tight


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Position sizing, relative to Capital base,* relative to Risk* etc etc should be considered with every trade.






easylikesunday said:


> Diversify and dont invest more than you can *afford to lose*.




Correct "Easy" ...... it's also good to leave a little powder dry to take advantage of "unorthodox" Black Swans ..... 

ps.  I'm not saying this is a buy at this stage, but as Tech has mentioned .... the price action will tell the story in due course ...... 

At this stage, traders are de-risking their exposure to a possible world event with Uranium radiation. Makes logical sense, but not my personal view due to my lack of belief in the integrity of our world media and their motives 

Traders in profit, or on small losses will bail to protect capital ... 

Longer term holders will either hold or Reduce a little ..... or, if confident. top up ....  

If/When we see the "smart money" accumulating at the expense of the distressed "little guy" ... that is the time to re-enter ...... Interestingly, this is the time to really take notice of technical analysis in my opinion ...... and Tech/A may be able to shed some interesting light in that regard as we head into the next weeks/months.


----------



## bathuu

I was doing quite good until recent red days for the relatively new beginner. So it is for me win win situation at the moment, losing one gaining other. Perhaps, I guess I learnt only on gaining side not the losing side, this was the big lesson for me on the losing side, psychologically. That why I am happy that I learned the doctrine of LOSE SMALL - SAVE BIG. Well, many trading days ahead of me and I am pretty confident to play with flaming giant fireball to heal my wound in short time:


----------



## Billyb

Opportunity to buy more really. 

PEN dropped 30% but did the world's demand for uranium drop by that much?

It's not as if all the other uranium plants in the world are going to close down. They still need the stuff. If demand doesn't change than price should not be too affected long term ether. Growth in nuclear power will probably be affected but not in proprtion to the number of people who bailed out of this today.

The market is a irrational and exaggerates things at times. This is when the rational investors make their money.


----------



## Sean K

Billyb said:


> Opportunity to buy more really.
> 
> PEN dropped 30% but did the world's demand for uranium drop by that much?
> 
> It's not as if all the other uranium plants in the world are going to close down. They still need the stuff. If demand doesn't change than price should not be too affected long term ether. Growth in nuclear power will probably be affected but not in proprtion to the number of people who bailed out of this today.
> 
> The market is a irrational and exaggerates things at times. This is when the rational investors make their money.



Yeah, probably a knee jerk in the short term, but we shouldn't discount some significant effect to juniors like PEN. They need cash investments to keep going and if they don't get it, for whatever reason, they could collapse. More than likely a knee jerk and longer term opportunity though. Unless Thorium is embraced.


----------



## TabJockey

Its good to begin with shares when times are tough because it teaches you lots of hard lessons for a smaller fee. If you get allot of false confidence early then you learn those same lessons harder for a much bigger fee later on.


----------



## tothemax6

Billyb said:


> PEN dropped 30% but did the world's demand for uranium drop by that much?



It might.
Chernobyl and Three Mile contributed to swaying public opinion against nuclear plants, which caused to a flattening off of the expansion of nuclear power. However, I think people are being pretty unreasonable on this one - the thing got hit by a tsunami FFS. But the worlds demand for energy _cannot_ yield, so in the long run yes the demand will remain. The question that cannot be answered, of course, is 'when will that long run resume?'. Politics changes everything.

My condolences guys, this was a freak event and it could not have been foreseen.


----------



## Miner

Hello All

Notwithstanding PEN has dived down and for small players like PEN cash flow and market capitalisation is important for CR, I personally welcome the announcement today.
The ppm of Uranium is just magnificent. How to measure it ? IMO the quality of ore body as published should be more than 5 (five) times the best quality BMN got, three times the best quality Yeelirrie (BHPB) got (not JORC compliant however).
So yes, uranium plants are in danger for a short time due to Japan havoc, but the fundamental strength remains with uranium plants. Cherenbyl (check the spelling) incident was disaster and so was WW  and GFC . The world did not stop there however.
I am hopeful and if I got some more available cash, I would have bought more PEN at the low price going now. But please DYOR. I am relying on fundamentals. To be frank I am too lazy  and ignorant to interpret or understand charts or candle sticks.
http://asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=PEN please download it from ASX site as I could not upload the announcement in ASF site 

Have a better day PEN holders


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

tothemax6 said:


> It might.
> Chernobyl and Three Mile contributed to swaying public opinion against nuclear plants...



Maybe so, but there are few "right now" technologies that are close to carbon neutral (ignoring the concrete and steel used). Here's a list of the current Nuclear Power Stations by country: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_by_country#List_of_nuclear_reactors_by_country

Probably wise to ignore the "Planned" and "Proposed" columns since these are at least 8 years away, but the "Operating" and "Under Construction" columns are interesting.

While the world's population continues to rise, so too will our power consumption. And in hindsight, building a Nuclear Reactor near a fault-line was always going to have it's risks.

Disclosure: Long term holder.


----------



## onthesword

looks like the biggest ramper of pen has sold his shares on the way up (to you know who you are ) and has left the building


----------



## TheAbyss

Buy opportunity soon.

The worlds most dense location of Nuclear power generation takes a hit from the 5th largest quake ever followed by a tsnumai of massive proportions and 3 days on we have had 2 relatively small hydrogen explosions and managed to contain radiation (so far).

Sure we may not have seen the worst of it yet but if this is the extent of the damage from what is potentially the worst case scenario then nuclear power isnt going anywhere imo.

Sure the price is suffering at the moment but i cant see how we have seen anything that justifies a sell off of these proportions to U stocks. Capital protection is a must and i understand some selling but those that think the alternatives are now ready to replace nuclear power generation are deluding themselves.  I cant see coal fired power popping up all over SE asia, USA and europe either so batten down the hatches people. 

Give it a month and the short sighted plus those who protected their capital will be back.

My advice is put your shares in a drawer and walk away for a while or just sell and dont look back or you will be sorry.


----------



## Miner

onthesword said:


> looks like the biggest ramper of pen has sold his shares on the way up (to you know who you are ) and has left the building




Could you please be specific to PEN and share your thoughts whom you meant to be biggest ramper ?

If I was you, then I would direct my concern to Administrator and keep this site clean from suspected allegations.
People have so much of misnomer and ill formed opinions about uranium plant. But  they do not stop riding or sailing ships even after so Titanic or to board planes even after so many plane accidents.

But normal John and Mary people get panicked on uranium explosion and media encashes our fear.

I know you were not directing to me as I never ramp and do not have enough money to take benefit of any ramping. Share is my part time hobby and not livelihood.

Notwithstanding I would mention if you are referring to one of our learned contributors please show some understanding. There are people who invested their super on PEN and again might have bought PEN at .03 cents while contributing their thoughts in ASF for the well being of others. 

I have personally benefitted from PEN postings in ASF and still holding it. I am not expert on uranium (or any thing)  but probably have gained some knowledge on uranium plant and PEN projects . So I looking for opportunity to increase my holding in PEN 

*(my condolences to the victims at Japan - I do mean it).*. I got three Japanese colleagues working next to me, got a dear friend (Australian) in Japan who just escaped life from this disaster. So I am not shying away from the tragedy. 

Please DYOR and remember even many of us will be incurring a paper loss only (like many of us got paper gain recently) unless we are sold out PEN. 

Panic is only normal in share market. Last few days there have been very high unloading with PEN, PDN, BMN . So why blame PEN alone

disclaimer : I am holding PEN and will hold


----------



## tech/a

Technically what we look for in VSA is a very high volume exhaustion and that "appears" to be yesterday.
Then we want a reversal clearly showing sellers have gone.
This is in setup phase on todays bar.
I have a buy order in at the point that this will be confirmed with a stop at the low of the day less a tick.*What I like at the moment is the reversal on low volume.(not yet complete OR confirmed so some caution!)*

Low risk entry.

Sanity WILL return.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Miner said:


> Panic is only normal in the share market.




Panic is _*absolutely *_a normal part of the market.  Every stock does what it does, and there's no way you can struggle against it.

Is the crowd confident?  Good I'll buy.
Was the crowd confident, now undecided?  Good I'll hold.
Is the crowd overconfident (masking anxiety)?  Good I'll sell.
Is the crowd scared witless?  Good I'll sell.  
Is the crowd despondent?  Good, I'll consider buying once more.

Go with the market.

And remember that any stock that gets huge coverage on HC will have a big meltdown at some point.  It happens time and again.


----------



## jetblack

Miner said:


> People have so much of misnomer and ill formed opinions about uranium plant. But  they do not stop riding or sailing ships even after so Titanic or to board planes even after so many plane accidents.




I dont think planes, trains and ships have the ability to displace a large number of peoples from their lives, homes and health , as does the possibility of nuclear fallout from a reactor.


----------



## skc

Billyb said:


> Opportunity to buy more really.
> 
> PEN dropped 30% but did the world's demand for uranium drop by that much?
> 
> The market is a irrational and exaggerates things at times. This is when the rational investors make their money.




The relationship between PEN's share price and U demand is probably not linear... 



Gringotts Bank said:


> Panic is _*absolutely *_a normal part of the market.  Every stock does what it does, and there's no way you can struggle against it.
> 
> Is the crowd confident?  Good I'll buy.
> Was the crowd confident, now undecided?  Good I'll hold.
> Is the crowd overconfident (masking anxiety)?  Good I'll sell.
> Is the crowd scared witless?  Good I'll sell.
> Is the crowd despondent?  Good, I'll consider buying once more.
> 
> Go with the market.
> 
> And remember that any stock that gets huge coverage on HC will have a big meltdown at some point.  It happens time and again.




So true... particularly on the HC observation. 

As to my 2c on PEN - if I was holding I would have sold regardless of my entry price. I am not a nuclear power technician (i.e. not Homer Simpson) and have no idea if the Japan situation will get better or worse. But I would think that, if we have a full blown emergency then PEN has a long way to fall. If the situation improves it will still be a long time before the U juniors recover... So on a risk/reward basis I would have sold... easier said then done given I don't hold.


----------



## tech/a

> Panic is only normal in the share market.




Resigning yourself to "Panic will happen" is less than ideal.

Refusing to be a part of it and putting into place contingency plans to take advantage of it rather than being demolished by it *IS* ideal


----------



## TabJockey

Feeling the pain for all you PEN holders out there, this is GFC Mk2 for Uranium stocks out there. The economic analysis is very murky because its hard to take into account the effect that an event like this will have on world nuclear policy. If there is serious fallout from this latest disaster (looking at bloomberg apparently its likely) then its going to set back the nuclear movement 10 years.

If you are happy to hold for 10 years then stock up at 6c!

Just my  (thats where PEN is going)


----------



## Boggo

TabJockey said:


> If you are happy to hold for 10 years then stock up at 6c!




Around 6c seems to be the next level, failing that (which I tend to suspect it may) see the chart !

(click to expand)


----------



## thestevo888

Boggo said:


> Around 6c seems to be the next level, failing that (which I tend to suspect it may) see the chart !
> 
> (click to expand)




Excuse my charting ignorance, which is complete... is the suggestion that 3.5 is the next level it could fall to?


----------



## tech/a

This stock is handing out some very important lessons.

I will remember this thread in the years ahead as a stark warning to those who only make plans for Clear 30 degree days.

The Price action clearly is not telling us it has pulled up.
but it *WILL*.---

Frankly those who didnt sell out on a break below 12c and watched this tank *NEED* to learn this lesson.

Go back to post #1004 on 7/3/11 and take it all in there were very very obvious signs.


----------



## uoyrikir

I must say, I'm glad I started out investing with PEN and learning the ups and downs. Better now than later on when capital matters most.


----------



## chensteiger

Hi all, tough few days for PEN  

Tech/a...well done with the charting research. I did a bit of my own research at post 1008 which backed up your analysis and thank goodness I sold out on Friday at $0.12. 

However, I think no one could have foreseen the Japan earthquake/tsunami happening and especially the damage to the Nuclear Station at Fukushima. Whilst there were significant signs that PEN was going to reverse, no analysis predicted the hammering that PEN is currently taking (Tech/A only stated a correction to 0.095). 

2 lesson I have learn with PEN so far:
Don't be too greedy, a short-term rise in SP of 200%-300% is very rare.
Sh*t just happens. 

Looking for an entry point with PEN as I still believe it is a great stock. The news from Karoo is incredible!! SP seems to have found a floor at around 6c. However with the news from Japan becoming more negative, I am in no rush to re-enter.

Thoughts with the Japanese.

Go PEN


----------



## adt100

Tech I think this is more a position sizing and Black Swan event lesson. Are you suggesting that people that are holding on a weekly or monthly time frame using a positive expectancy system should have sold? 

I was in Pen and followed with interest brought at 5.6c and sold this morning as per my system. I split my systems and could easily have been in Pen on a weekly or 4 hrly timeframe. Don't forget people hold Pen for all sorts of reasons and everyone gets what they want from the market don't they? I am happy to be out and move on with a small profit (was a big one not long ago) and on to the next. 

I have followed this thread with interest but didn't contibute as I know little about the company but have enjoyed yours and others contributions. I would be inclined to allign myself with SKC and say if I was holding fundamentally then a lot seems to have changed that I don't yet understand. There will be opportunity coming but one needs to be around to take advantage of it. To those that still hold best of luck and I hope this turns out ok for you. Who knows in a few weeks I could be back in? Wait and See


----------



## boff

chensteiger said:


> Whilst there were significant signs that PEN was going to reverse, no analysis predicted the hammering that PEN is currently taking (Tech/A only stated a correction to 0.095).




I believe that the news over the weekend should have given all the material that one would have needed for a fundamental analysis, and that combined with tech analysis from tech/a *should* have had us all running for the hills.
As I alluded to before open yesterday, I had sell orders in before the bell and was lucky to have been taken at 0.095. But that luck was predicated on watching the news and putting two and two together.
Like many have said this particular black swan has been a lesson for us all, myself included (I incorrectly believed that the rout in my portfolio would be limited to uranium stocks.......)


----------



## tech/a

> However, I think no one could have foreseen




You dont have to forsee anything I lost a few K myself when it ran straight through my buy then stop.
But the point is it was 6 ticks and a few here have gone 100 ticks from top to now.
Thats just un excusable---while I feel the pain it could have and should have been avoided at least 90 ticks!!

Im no genius price told and tells all.


----------



## Boggo

thestevo888 said:


> Excuse my charting ignorance, which is complete... is the suggestion that 3.5 is the next level it could fall to?




That's the theory.
They are significant levels or points under normal circumstances, at the moment though the negative sentiment has the upper hand.
They could be considered potential support/decision/turning points.

A similiar pattern in play on the XAO at the moment as it approaches one of those levels at around 4560.

Just my


----------



## chensteiger

boff said:


> I believe that the news over the weekend should have given all the material that one would have needed for a fundamental analysis.



I was referring to the analysis done prior to the news over the weekend.

With regards to after knowledge of the news in Japan, I believe (for what its worth) selling would have been the logical thing to do from both a fundamental and a T/A point of view.


----------



## bathuu

Another BIG RED day for PEN. Touching 6 cents and it looks like buyers are dried out no-one is wanting to touch it and way too many sellers holding dead duck on other side of the line could send the price down to floor in another day again. All the rules of fundamentals and technicals have been broken by market fear in short term. At least I am happy to hear that everyone else, not only me as a beginner, have learnt one hell of lesson from PEN's price action.


----------



## DB008

I'm getting smashed to bits on this stock. Ouch...


----------



## Billyb

Damn this stock is cheap now, and probably will get cheaper.

Emotions are what drives us to buy or sell and emotions are driven by how much we invest in the company. I only invested $2000 in this baby, so I'm not really worried.
It's interesting reading how people are talking about lessons they learned from this as though the whole PEN journey is over and it is time to reflect. In actual fact, the PEN journey has only just begun, hell, they are still a couple of years from selling to the market last time I checked. 

Guys who have done the research will tell you this thing is still gonna do well long term. Current prices are almost as low as what they were when PEN was nowhere near as fundamentally sound as it is now. Clearly, the price has nowhere to go but up (long term)...and I think people with balls of steel that buy at these cheap prices and hold will be rewarded.

By the way, no recommendation of course, just what I think.


----------



## axelord

If "buying at current price and holding long term" is a prove for "balls of steel", then

"at a lose of 10k and still holding" could be a prove of "balls of diamond" (unscratched)  

And that's me..!

At the moment the holders of PEN are acting like a herd of sheep!


----------



## Boggo

chensteiger said:


> Hi all, tough few days for PEN
> 
> Tech/a...well done with the charting research. I did a bit of my own research at post 1008 which backed up your analysis and thank goodness I sold out on Friday at $0.12.
> 
> 2 lesson I have learn with PEN so far:
> *Don't be too greedy, a short-term rise in SP of 200%-300% is very rare.*
> Sh*t just happens.




Excellent post and the only way to survive.




Billyb said:


> Damn this stock is cheap now, and probably will get cheaper.




Ridiculous statement, if it is going to get cheaper then it is expensive now.




axelord said:


> At the moment the holders of PEN are acting like a herd of sheep!




 Or gamblers.


(click to expand)


----------



## skc

Would someone care to do a valuation on what PEN may be worth and outlining the major assumptions (e.g. uranium price and discount rate)?


----------



## thestevo888

skc said:


> Would someone care to do a valuation on what PEN may be worth and outlining the major assumptions (e.g. uranium price and discount rate)?




That's probably the most important post (in my books!) this week. Surely there are some wise and experienced fundies who can break it down for us?

One factor that sticks in my mind, despite selling my entire holdings this week is that PEN has higher grade uranium than most explorers/producers. This could be especially critical in the times ahead, assuming lower U prices and reduced margins. Provided PEN's funding isn't an issue (and this is a big if) once they start small scale production early next year they will have cash to bankroll further development at Lance and Karoo.
Everything really depends on the price of Uranium going forward. IF the situation is contained in Japan, this time next year or the year after may see prices back to where they were last week. If NOT, then, as others have suggested, this may be a very long wait. It's a massive gamble in my books - events in Japan have already hurt investor sentiment against Uranium mining - will things there get worse or improve? I'm on the fence until either the situation is genuinely contained or the sp falls much lower.


----------



## basilio

There is a very real possibility that the catastrophe in Japan will cause a total review of the future of nuclear power.  This has always been the achilles heel of nuclear power.  If there is an accident the consequences will be far more severe *and long lasting* that anything that could happen to a coal fired power station etc.  Like the Three mile island incident in 1979 we could see mass cancellations of projected new stations.

Another option is to go back to the drawing board and demand even more stringent safety  precautions. That is possible but the cost would be astronomical and put nuclear power way out of economic contention with any other technology.
*
And of course if  the current situation gets out of hand the consequences of a poisoned Japan with hundreds of thousands of people affected by radiation sickness would probably kill the entire industry not to mention crippling the worlds economy.*.


----------



## tech/a

> Are you suggesting that people that are holding on a weekly or monthly time frame using a positive expectancy system should have sold?




*Absolutely.*To watch a profit get smashed and worse turn into a loss is *plain irresponsible *trading in my book.--No its actually very stupid trading.

There are some traders here who have (Estimated and reputedly) 1.5 millon (+) shares One suggested an average price of 3.6c so his cost---lets work on 1.5 million shares was $54,000 a week or so ago it was worth $232,500. At 11.5c it was worth $172,500
so there was $120,000 THROWN away.
IF the holder was that convinced in PEN had sold an re bought that WOULD HAVE given him at todays prices a further 4 million shares. 2 million shares wasted!!




> Would someone care to do a valuation on what PEN may be worth and outlining the major assumptions (e.g. uranium price and discount rate)?




*This again is lunacy*
A week ago this stock had un questionable fundamentals.The market has purely taken an anti uranium view due to the reactor issues in Japan---The company HASNT changed.
My question to you guys is how are you going to take advantage of the small window you'll get to get in at rock bottom pricing.
It will come and go in a flash and Fundamentals wont cut it for this opportunity.They will be far too slow.
The only option Ive seen on this forum so far is keep buying the knife as it falls.
Dumbest trading you'll ever see.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> While I dont expect a crash I do expect a sizable correction.
> When is not exactly clear it could be in the making now.
> 
> so I never underestimate the fear of a crowd all running for the exit.




Looks like a pretty fair call in advance there tech.

Lottery Tickets as we mentioned.  Lets hope for some better fortune in that regard



Ticket Number: 	34D9-4D74-C1FF-23B5 
Purchase Date:	Wed 16th Mar 9:34am* 

$2 Jackpot Lottery	Draw No. 9586 
*Ticket Numbers:	140986, 140987, 140988, 140989, 140990*


Ticket Number: 	E64B-714C-98D4-539E 
Purchase Date:	Wed 16th Mar 9:34am* 

$2 Jackpot Lottery	Draw No. 9586 
*Ticket Numbers:	144556, 157784, 177651, 197499, 217283*


----------



## tech/a

basilio said:


> There is a very real possibility that the catastrophe in Japan will cause a total review of the future of nuclear power.  This has always been the achilles heel of nuclear power.  If there is an accident the consequences will be far more severe *and long lasting* that anything that could happen to a coal fired power station etc.  Like the Three mile island incident in 1979 we could see mass cancellations of projected new stations.
> 
> Another option is to go back to the drawing board and demand even more stringent safety  precautions. That is possible but the cost would be astronomical and put nuclear power way out of economic contention with any other technology.
> *
> And of course if  the current situation gets out of hand the consequences of a poisoned Japan with hundreds of thousands of people affected by radiation sickness would probably kill the entire industry not to mention crippling the worlds economy.*.




*OMG
Typical over emotive rehetoric.*Give me a break the solution is to earthquake proof reactors.Theyve done it with buildings and the Japanese will become EXPERTS in Nuclear technology.
Hell they survived 2 nuclear bombs to grow to the most innovative leaders in technology on the planet---its still there and so is their resolve.

*Barney*
You never know perhaps you and I will get a "Black Swan event"!!!


----------



## explod

Reactors need to be in huge floating concrete tubs off the coasts with stabilisation so that in a level position in a tidal wave they will only move up or down.     

Hey Tech, should we get a patent cover note on that? 

Maybe we could manufacture them here in Port Phillip Bay. 

ps.   No , would not get them out of the heads due to protesters


----------



## DB008

explod said:


> Reactors need to be in huge floating concrete tubs off the coasts with stabilisation so that in a level position in a tidal wave they will only move up or down.




Put the Nuclear Reactors in floating concrete tubs ? And during a typhoon they'll be right mate....And if they sink/crack/split?



> On average 10.3 typhoons a year approach within 300 kilometers of the coast of Japan. Years in which 12 or more strike this areas are known as years with many typhoons. Years with eight or less are known as having “few” typhoons. Most make land fall in Okinawa or south Kyushu, particularly Miyazaki and Kagoshima Prefectures.




That would be like putting the spend rods 'above' the reactor. Hold on, that's what they did....


----------



## basilio

> OMG
> Typical over emotive rehetoric.Give me a break the solution is to earthquake proof reactors.Theyve done it with buildings and the Japanese will become EXPERTS in Nuclear technology.
> Hell they survived 2 nuclear bombs to grow to the most innovative leaders in technology on the planet---its still there and so is their resolve.




Actually tech/TA the suggestion of  a far more secure nuclear power station was what I said. The trouble with that is the cost which would blow the economics of the plant out of the water.

I don't necessarily accept the over emotional rhetoric charge. We are still in a fluid situation and  there is a chance of widespread nuclear radiation that at the least would make large areas of land uninhabitable. And these reactors are relatively well built and relatively safe - compared to say the Soviet reactors.

On a cost benefit basis it is possible that nuclear power will not be the best solution to our energy needs.


----------



## Miner

I am sure some of you have noticed the turnaround of PEN. My suspicion is the short term traders have returned. Real investors are still holding.

Any way I got this report from Intersuisse as a part of daily communique which they send to thousands of people enrolled with them.

What impressed me the line I have highlighted for PEN holders to read and note.

On 16 March 2011 06:42, xxxx @intersuisse.com.au> wrote:

Good morning,



Overnight news from Overseas.

Last night on global markets there was initially panic selling following media reports that *sensationalised* the Japanese power plant problems. *We have seen a technical report that outlines the construction of the reactor concerned and the various processes that are being conducted to stabilise the shut down core. If correct, the report predicts that the cores will be stable within a day or so.*Buyers returned to share markets which then closed above their lows for the day. The French market was down 2.5%, Germany 3.2%, the UK 1.4% and the Dow 0.8%. Copper fell 67 to 9118, nickel was 1115 lower at 24,705 and zinc lost 47 to 2282. Oil plunged 4.01 to 97.18, gold was sold down 32.10 to 1392.80 and our dollar fell to 99.18. 

The US Federal reserve met and noted that employment and consumer spending were improving but kept stimulus actions in place.



Local News.

Our resources analyst, Pieter Bruinstroop, notes that companies in China have had limitations on borrowing and have been running down inventories of metals rather than buying more. This has stabilised metal prices so far this year but their inventory will not last too long and metal buyers will return to the market, driving prices higher again.

- 

Today’s  futures trading indicates a 13 point rise at our opening but this is not showing on our screen of individual stocks. An unpredictable day lies ahead with sellers and bargain hunters in play.Regards

Intersuisse Limited

_*Disclaimer : DYOR . It is not a recommendation from Intersuisse, me or any one. Seek Financial Advise and DO NOT rely on the extracted information which is a general commentary only *_


----------



## Scuba

DB008 said:


> Put the Nuclear Reactors in floating concrete tubs ? And during a typhoon they'll be right mate....And if they sink/crack/split?
> 
> 
> 
> That would be like putting the spend rods 'above' the reactor. Hold on, that's what they did....



Blah blah blah...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore_concrete_structure
Try looking at the TROLL A platform... 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_marine_propulsion


----------



## bathuu

It looks like people thought enough is enough and started buying it while it is cheap. Price jump from 0.062 to 0.087. Given things are not so clear at the moment, this is pump and dump action by short term traders? No-one can't predict crowd, only price action will tell the truth.


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> *This again is lunacy*
> A week ago this stock had un questionable fundamentals.The market has purely taken an anti uranium view due to the reactor issues in Japan---The company HASNT changed.
> My question to you guys is how are you going to take advantage of the small window you'll get to get in at rock bottom pricing.
> It will come and go in a flash and Fundamentals wont cut it for this opportunity.They will be far too slow.
> The only option Ive seen on this forum so far is keep buying the knife as it falls.
> Dumbest trading you'll ever see.




Of course fundamental analysis is lunacy to a TA... 

The company hasn't changed, but I bet you anything that the industry has/will change. Uranium spot price projection has certainly changed if nothing else.

And part of any fundamental analysis is the pricing of risk. Last week the risks were priced differently to this week. That is fundamentally different. The question is whether current share price reflects too much risk...


----------



## tech/a

> And part of any fundamental analysis is the pricing of risk. Last week the risks were priced differently to this week. That is fundamentally different. The question is whether current share price reflects too much risk...




*Way way way too late!!*

Your(Those holding at 12.5+) trade has  been decimated yet for the life of me I cant understand why mitigating RISK back on the 7th of March has and was passed off as Quackery.

If I was a Fundi trader after this Id be looking at how to spot and mitigate *RISK* much much earlier. 

Ill bet there are some SMSF bleeding to death as well!


----------



## DB008

Scuba said:


> Blah blah blah...




1) Your first link to Nuclear Marine propulsion. Those Russian Nuke ships can't sail in warm waters because they need cold water for cooling parts of their reactors on board. So in your theory, if the Japanese did indeed use one of these ships for power generation, they would only be able to produce power during winter. Also, the ships wouldn't be able to produce enough energy to power more than a few thousand homes at a time. So, you'd need a fair few ships. More ships, more potential for accident. Also, have a look at the link you posted on the net, scroll down, and look under the *Naval nuclear accidents* heading. They seem pretty accident prone mate. 

2) Your second link; Troll-A Rig (that you highlighted). Not in a cyclone area (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_gas_field). Japan is and sometimes gets hit numerous times per year. Putting a Nuke Reactor in the ocean somewhere off Japan is asking for another serious accident.

As you said, Blah, blah, blah.....


----------



## TheAbyss

And if the japanese adhered to international conventions they wouldnt be having this problem and the threat to Nuclear as a viable power source wouldnt be on the front pages.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ver-nuclear-plants-WikiLeaks-cables-show.html

Add to that the generators in question were scheduled to be replaced/ upgraded mor ethan 2 years ago as they were at end of life then. Again the japanese chose not to.

Risk management is a must but this current catastophy has affected teh viability of Nuclear power and placed all U308 miners and explorers under pressure and no amount of charting could have predicted this event though i do agree Pen was due for a pull back irrespective of international events.


----------



## Buckfont

PEN up 40.8%
UEQ up 15.3%
USA up19.3%
DYL up 15.5%
UNX up11.3%
PDN up10.2%
UTO up 8 %
EXT up 3.9%

Hope folks didn`t freak and dump too early.


----------



## toniix

Im doing some paper trading ATM and just picked up on PEN. Would it be a good time to 'invest' now?


----------



## Sean K

toniix said:


> Im doing some paper trading ATM and just picked up on PEN. Would it be a good time to 'invest' now?



I suggest you keep paper trading until you don't have to ask that question.


----------



## toocool

kennas said:


> I suggest you keep paper trading until you don't have to ask that question.






Good advice that. 

Also PEN (IMO) has recently been a very hard stock to trade, personally, Ive had a good trade for profit in on the break @ 7.7c sold at 11c  back in again @ 12.5 and stopped out at a small loss a couple of weeks ago.
Not one for the beginers.


----------



## Boggo

bathuu said:


> Given things are not so clear at the moment, this is pump and dump action by short term traders?



Can you explain that ?



bathuu said:


> No-one can't predict crowd,



if you mean 'can' then I tend to believe you are wrong, human panic behaviour is predictable.



bathuu said:


> only price action will tell the truth.



very true, regardless of individual fundamental views, you can only buy or sell current price.
Try telling your broker that you don't want to sell TLS at $2.60, you want $8.00 because that is what you believe it to be fundamentally worth and see how you go.

Predictable behaviour perhaps 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=619007&viewfull=1#post619007

and below

(click to expand)


----------



## Billyb

Boggo said:


> Ridiculous statement, if it is going to get cheaper then it is expensive now.




Looks like (so far) you're wrong. 



TheAbyss said:


> ... this current catastophy has affected teh viability of Nuclear power and placed all U308 miners and explorers under pressure and no amount of charting could have predicted this event though i do agree Pen was due for a pull back irrespective of international events.




I'm not convinced. 15% of Human's energy needs are still coming from nuclear power (some 430 plants). That's a lot.


----------



## Boggo

Billyb said:


> Looks like (so far) you're wrong.




About what, your contradictory statement ("Damn this stock is cheap now, and probably will get cheaper") or the PEN share price ?


----------



## tech/a

Buckfont said:


> PEN up 40.8%
> UEQ up 15.3%
> USA up19.3%
> DYL up 15.5%
> UNX up11.3%
> PDN up10.2%
> UTO up 8 %
> EXT up 3.9%
> 
> Hope folks didn`t freak and dump too early.





This post cracked me up.

Pen lost more than 100% from its highs and claws back to 7.7c still more than 100% from its highs.
--- hahaha man I hope you didn't freak!!--- and dump early---whats late I wonder?

Europe is looking weak--6c is looking good if it stays negative tonight!


----------



## boff

tech/a said:


> Europe is looking weak--6c is looking good if it stays negative tonight!




That's exactly where I put my order in this morning. Although if the situation in Japan gets any worse overnight I'll pull out.


----------



## mr. jeff

For any seriously gullible speculators out there, my Hebel-Johnston-Commodore 64 theory says that PEN will return to 0.12 on the 8th April after the next moon rise period, plus an enriched Ux medallion as a dividend for all holders, ex date April 8th 2012. It is a very descriptive and reliable system (but has never been right so far).

PEN is just like the town bike, loved temporarily, hated faithfully, ridden by all when it's not diseased and thrown into a ditch as soon as someone shouts herpes! (yes I know it is trade on price action, no emotion, that's how I work too) Couldn't resist the old town bike analogy though...

PEN still has exceptional qualities which cannot be denied. Very exciting times!


----------



## skc

mr. jeff said:


> For any seriously gullible speculators out there, my Hebel-Johnston-Commodore 64 theory says that PEN will return to 0.12 on the 8th April after the next moon rise period, plus an enriched Ux medallion as a dividend for all holders, ex date April 8th 2012. It is a very descriptive and reliable system (but has never been right so far).
> 
> PEN is just like the town bike, loved temporarily, hated faithfully, ridden by all when it's not diseased and thrown into a ditch as soon as someone shouts herpes! (yes I know it is trade on price action, no emotion, that's how I work too) Couldn't resist the old town bike analogy though...
> 
> PEN still has exceptional qualities which cannot be denied. Very exciting times!




So funny... how many shares do I need to buy to qualify for the Ux medallion medal? And what price do you think I can sell them for on eBay targeting the Russian mafia?

BTW what are you smoking?


----------



## jetblack

mr. jeff said:


> For any seriously gullible speculators out there, my Hebel-Johnston-Commodore 64 theory says that PEN will return to 0.12 on the 8th April after the next moon rise period, plus an enriched Ux medallion as a dividend for all holders, ex date April 8th 2012. It is a very descriptive and reliable system (but has never been right so far).
> 
> PEN is just like the town bike, loved temporarily, hated faithfully, ridden by all when it's not diseased and thrown into a ditch as soon as someone shouts herpes! (yes I know it is trade on price action, no emotion, that's how I work too) Couldn't resist the old town bike analogy though...
> 
> PEN still has exceptional qualities which cannot be denied. Very exciting times!




Yes, unfortunately that is the credo with the majority of holders on the PEN threads, they believe their resource is infallible. Its not so much the fact that U is toted as the next clean energy source, its just that the ramifications as we are now seeing in Japan, this commodities use has the ability to destroy/setback and cost potential lives, production and progress because its still an unknown.

Why live in fear exacerbated by the potential unknown of these reactors.

This will affect not only U stocks but all stocks across the board.


----------



## boff

jetblack said:


> This will affect not only U stocks but all stocks across the board.




Both positively and negatively. I have a holding in Sunpower in the US that shot up 10% on Monday. Yesterday I bought into everyone's favourite whipping boy, Ceramic Fuel Cells as I believe that Japan's current situation will promote their technology.


----------



## Labtech

Mr Jeff - I hope you aren't mocking the C64. - it's not as if it was a Vic 20.

Looks like the buyers and sellers have evened out at the moment.

Question:
Can serious 'short-term' damage done to the share price have a longer term effect on PENs operations?  I am not referring here to a change in the longer term market for Uranium etc, more if the current price action will change PEN's ability to implement whatever they had planned on doing before it.


----------



## skc

Labtech said:


> Mr Jeff - I hope you aren't mocking the C64. - it's not as if it was a Vic 20.
> 
> Looks like the buyers and sellers have evened out at the moment.
> 
> Question:
> Can serious 'short-term' damage done to the share price have a longer term effect on PENs operations?  I am not referring here to a change in the longer term market for Uranium etc, more if the current price action will change PEN's ability to implement whatever they had planned on doing before it.




It will affect their ability to raise future capital (or the price which they are raised) which will have very real impact.


----------



## boff

Labtech said:


> Question:
> Can serious 'short-term' damage done to the share price have a longer term effect on PENs operations?  I am not referring here to a change in the longer term market for Uranium etc, more if the current price action will change PEN's ability to implement whatever they had planned on doing before it.




Well I imagine it will have an effect on future capital raisings. These should be expected as the company moves closer to production.
Having said that, they have approx $25m in the bank and a draw down facility of $100m so one imagines they are well funded for the time being and I would expect the share price to have recovered from its present state before further capital is required.


----------



## mr. jeff

skc said:


> So funny... how many shares do I need to buy to qualify for the Ux medallion medal? And what price do you think I can sell them for on eBay targeting the Russian mafia?
> 
> BTW what are you smoking?




Well skc at the risk of annoying people with ongoing stupidity, the answers you seek are:

1. you need to hold at least 10 shares in PEN to qualify on the ex-date for the medallion.
This is not as surprising at second take, as my system  shows that when this date arrives, PEN is trading at $ 14,593 per share. I would have to check but there must have been a consolidation. Maybe LabTech can run this through his Vic 20. (that's a lawnmover right LT?)

2. You of all people should know that you cannot sell enriched uranium on Ebay. You must use Grays online, it goes under "MISCELLANEOUS TERRORISM SUPPLIES" and I think you would see in the ballpark of $84.00 for it, but again I defer to LT's lawnmower to confirm, and it may depend on the bidders online that day. _*I do not condone wearing radioactive jewellery children.*_





Where to next for PEN ?


----------



## Sean K

Labtech said:


> Question:
> Can serious 'short-term' damage done to the share price have a longer term effect on PENs operations?  I am not referring here to a change in the longer term market for Uranium etc, more if the current price action will change PEN's ability to implement whatever they had planned on doing before it.



This is a very good question Labby. 

It must be dependant on the cause of the short term damage. If it was caused by a 9/11 or some other black swan, not related to nuclear energy production, then no problem. Since Germany shut down quite a bit of it's nuke plants and China has automatically deferred start up of a few plants it does have an effect. Many miners will still be digging and stockpiles growing for a reduced demand. If this isn't sorted quickly, then the result will be reduced requirement of supply and lower prices. If there's a medium to longer term shift away from nuclear energy even decent explorers/developers will suffer. Maybe put into mothballs. 

Lets hope for the PEN faithful that this all blows over quickly.


----------



## barney

kennas said:


> If this isn't sorted quickly, then the result will be reduced requirement of supply and lower prices. If there's a medium to longer term shift away from nuclear energy even decent explorers/developers will suffer.




There certainly are a few unknowns in the U arena at present.  The extent of the Japanese situation will be the catalyst for any short term improvement.

PEN are in a much better position than most Juniors as their proposed Opex/Capex etc is very low, so even if the spot price of U takes a dive, they will still have a viable model to work with.

Supply and demand will be the longer term key of course. If a lot of Juniors are forced to pack up their bat and ball due to reduced margins, any short term lack of Demand may well turn into a medium/long term lack of Supply.  

Advanced Juniors with sound project models will be the ones to survive, and after the current mess is sorted, they should end up being in a stronger position over time ..... One step at a time at the moment however.


----------



## EEE

Nice start out of the blocks for PEN this morning. 

Found this article:

http://www.uraniumseek.com/news/UraniumSeek/1300391236.php

Which runs similiar to my thoughts on the whole situation. Read a report today that although the situation is still serious, it has not worsened from yesterday. Providing the rods are cooled and and there is no meltdown, I think it will be business as usual for the 'Uranium Renaissance' as the article so elegantly puts it. 

Great oppurtunity if you have a few bucks to spare.


----------



## barney

EEE said:


> Nice start out of the blocks for PEN this morning.
> 
> Found this article:
> 
> http://www.uraniumseek.com/news/UraniumSeek/1300391236.php




Thanks for the link EEE.  

Ms Alka Singh is highly credentialed and her opinions are worth noting from a trading perspective. 

Couple of her points below:- 

This is a great opportunity to buy good uranium stocks for the long term. Short term, hedge funds could still short all of these uranium names without knowing which one is better just because they have the word "uranium" in the name. There could be still some tears in the market in the short term. However, *if you find good companies that you like with good assets and management teams, this could be a great opportunity*. I am talking about* companies with good assets, low-cost production and maybe in-situ recovery (ISR) production*.

This gives investors the best opportunity to buy since the 2008 financial meltdown. I can understand why people are concerned; but for a risk taker, this is good high-reward opportunity.


Interesting that she highlights ..... Good management, good assets, low cost production ans In-situ recovery ...... 

That's 4 from 4 for PEN.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> *
> 
> Barney
> You never know perhaps you and I will get a "Black Swan event"!!!*



*

Our Black Swan  in the lottery turned into an old boiler unfortunately.

I seem to have more "luck" trading than I do with random numbers ... funny about that


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----------



## tech/a

Bugga

Bought a little PEN though.


----------



## ColB

No disrespect to our most avid poster but surely it is time to come back Hangseng


----------



## tech/a

Moving along Nicely.
Hang should have been beaming at the opportunity of picking up stock in the 7c area!
Still I think its getting close to jumping ship again.


----------



## ColB

tech/a said:


> Moving along Nicely.
> Hang should have been beaming at the opportunity of picking up stock in the 7c area!
> *Still I think its getting close to jumping ship again*.




You're gunna jump ship to make your quick 25-30% today? and no-one can blame you for that.  But maybe it might hit .11c tomorrow.  Then again as the market keeps showing us there will always be another opportunity


----------



## tech/a

I said think!


----------



## aria

I just brought PEN at 0.075 a few days ago when it was dropping, really just online gambling to be honest, I'm not a trader. Does anyone have a crystal ball prediction about what the stock could be worth in the future and when? I know it's an incredibly ignorant question so I hope I don't offend any serious traders here by piping up...


----------



## mr. jeff

ColB said:


> You're gunna jump ship to make your quick 25-30% today? and no-one can blame you for that.  But maybe it might hit .11c tomorrow.  Then again as the market keeps showing us there will always be another opportunity




hmmm take 75 % gain in a week whilst reactors are still overheating, or let it run back to a loss....would be very surprised to see much more upside short term in PEN. Got a bunch at 0.059; that is buying at a good level - even though you aren't supposed to trade with any emotion.

Col I don't think that getting an 0.11 exit instead of 0.105 is that much of a worry considering where we have been in the last week or so...


----------



## ColB

mr. jeff said:


> hmmm take 75 % gain in a week whilst reactors are still overheating, or let it run back to a loss....would be very surprised to see much more upside short term in PEN. Got a bunch at 0.059; that is buying at a good level - even though you aren't supposed to trade with any emotion.
> 
> Col I don't think that getting an 0.11 exit instead of 0.105 is that much of a worry considering where we have been in the last week or so...




Like I said Jeff, can't blame anyone for taking the profit while it is there and I also said the market will probably provide another opportunity.  

The sentiment on PEN is obviously heating up as the reactors allegedly cool down.  Which way will it go?  Nothing more than an each way bet!


----------



## tech/a

Sold into strength--happy with the few days.


----------



## bennywizard

Does anyone know of any good companies mining Thorium?


----------



## bathuu

I think PEN has had enough rise in last 2-3 days. 0.10-11 level is perfectly corrected in main trend line and good for some time now. Whoever had a ball to ride it from 0.06 to 0.10 must have been rewarded handsomely. Congrats lads.


----------



## hangseng

ColB said:


> No disrespect to our most avid poster but surely it is time to come back Hangseng




Still here ColB.

Amiss of me not to post here over the last few days, however last week I couldn't be bothered with a certain other site and when I saw the media frenzy I did what I do. Switched off the Tele, stopped reading newspapers and focussed on *"what I believed was going to happen and my own research *".

Some may call this a head in the sand approach, I can assure you it wasn't. After sitting back and thinking logically and objectively, I made the decision to hold fast my investment in PEN. A decision I now see was a good one for me. I also did a check on my available funds as I wanted to increase my holdings when PEN went low 5's again. 

Away from the media frenzied hype and negativity posted on forums (most of it baseless rubbish and opportunistic negative innuendo), I found myself to be quite calm and resolved. I have tried for quite some time to get to this state of mind in the market and it takes black swan events like this to test it.

I am not saying this won't have any effect on the uranium or nuclear energy industry. However I am stating in my view, if anything it will have flow on positive effect on PEN and other producers.

I say this because if any of the hype is in part correct  then the uranium price* may be *suppressed short term due to a lower demand. If this occurs then a lot of would be producers will fall by the wayside completely at worst, or delayed at best. If this occurs PEN will remain a producer and the current plans won't be affected.

The benefit of being a very low Capex/Opex Producer will became plainly evident to all. 

PEN has a supply contract already and others in the waiting. PEN also has the available cash and funding to go all the way past production at Lance.

Logic prevailed in my thinking and I truly believed PEN would rebound strongly from the past weeks irrational selloff. I am a loner and I don't follow crowd mentality, I certainly don't panic. I have now been through the GFC, the 1987 crash and the mini pre-cursor crash of Aug 2007 (the warning of the coming of the GFC). Last week was the time to buy stocks like PEN, not sell.

I realise and respect that some sold due to trading strategies, stop losses or simply personal financial decisions. It is blind panic selling that shouldn't occur, however that happens out of fear and ignorance that can be overcome.

I hold firm now more than ever that PEN will prove to be an outstanding investment. My view of and resolve in PEN as an outstanding company remains. Despite the negative information being bandied around, the nuclear energy industry isn't finished, far from it in fact.

As a few people were told last week it seems... _*"Watch this space"*_


----------



## TabJockey

hangseng said:


> Still here ColB.
> 
> Amiss of me not to post here over the last few days, however last week I couldn't be bothered with a certain other site and when I saw the media frenzy I did what I do. Switched off the Tele, stopped reading newspapers and focussed on *"what I believed was going to happen and my own research...blah blah me me me*[/I]




I agree with your assessment of PEN as an investment but im pretty sure that no shares where traded in the "low 5's" recently. My charts say lowest traded was at 5.6 and not much at that level at all. I dont understand why you didn't buy all the way down if you have such conviction (as soon as we went sub 9c bright lights started flashing "bargain") because picking the bottom as always going to be tricky I kept expecting it to bounce at 8c, then 7c.

You should of been here blowing the trumpet to the other investors when they where packing their pants. Disappearing in times of trouble is not a good thing.

Also, I am not trying to be mean and im sure you a al right bloke but you sound fairly self absorbed in your last post.


----------



## skc

TabJockey said:


> I agree with your assessment of PEN as an investment but im pretty sure that no shares where traded in the "low 5's" recently. My charts say lowest traded was at 5.6 and not much at that level at all. I dont understand why you didn't buy all the way down if you have such conviction (as soon as we went sub 9c bright lights started flashing "bargain") because picking the bottom as always going to be tricky I kept expecting it to bounce at 8c, then 7c.
> 
> You should of been here blowing the trumpet to the other investors when they where packing their pants. Disappearing in times of trouble is not a good thing.
> 
> Also, I am not trying to be mean and im sure you a al right bloke but you sound fairly self absorbed in your last post.




I think he was just saying he checked his funds so he could buy more if prices fall to low 5s.

It is a really difficult balancing act. On one hand you want the lastest information so you can reassess the industry/company as development occurs - China changed its stance on nuclear plans in a matter of days and that has real impact (or at least the risk), while on-again/off-again takeover bid of Mantra is also very important to keep abreast of. On the otherhand, you don't want yourself to be influenced by the media hype and inaccurate information floating around. 

A side note - very surprised today to see PDN/EXT finish very weak despite the revival of the Mantra bid. Didn't someone just priced the industry to be 12% worse than before (based on the reduction in bid price)...


----------



## hangseng

TabJockey, on the day PEN was sold down I was on a new project site with barely a phone connection in SE Asia, let alone internet. I received an sms that PEN had touched 5.4c from my recollection of the day. If my friend made a typo so be it but that is what I recalled on the day. I have just had a look at the chart to see what actually happened, not that I really care now and yes you are right 5.6 was the low. An opportunity lost for me.

Yes I wanted to buy, but to do that requires a few logistical things to be in place, not the least being a decent (or any) internet connection. Not a lot of that where I was most of last week. Even when I did get a connection it wasn't for long. On that day though I had no chance of buying. Just a little luxury most people in Aus don't realise they have.

Up to you to make of my post as you will, however I am an investor and I take what I do seriously. I wasn't about to discard 3 years of research because of any forum post or media hype via newspaper or TV report.

I made an informed decision based on what I knew to be factual at the time. I don't place much value on "the sky is falling" reporting or forum banter.

I also am often wrongly accused of "blowing the trumpet" on PEN both here and elsewhere. I post I what I believe to be correct, I leave it up to others to decide what to do with that information.

Last week I did state elsewhere that PEN would be just fine, and it is. PEN is in very good shape and well positioned to head into production. Next week we should hear of the first of the permit approvals. PEN is way a head of most of there peers now and my long held view of PEN will come to fruition.

Nothing has occurred to change that apart from peoples perception.


----------



## SilverRanger

hangseng said:


> TabJockey, on the day PEN was sold down I was on a new project site with barely a phone connection in SE Asia, let alone internet. I received an sms that PEN had touched 5.4c from my recollection of the day. If my friend made a typo so be it but that is what I recalled on the day. I have just had a look at the chart to see what actually happened, not that I really care now and yes you are right 5.6 was the low. An opportunity lost for me.
> 
> Yes I wanted to buy, but to do that requires a few logistical things to be in place, not the least being a decent (or any) internet connection. Not a lot of that where I was most of last week. Even when I did get a connection it wasn't for long. On that day though I had no chance of buying. Just a little luxury most people in Aus don't realise they have.
> 
> Up to you to make of my post as you will, however I am an investor and I take what I do seriously. I wasn't about to discard 3 years of research because of any forum post or media hype via newspaper or TV report.
> 
> I made an informed decision based on what I knew to be factual at the time. I don't place much value on "the sky is falling" reporting or forum banter.
> 
> I also am often wrongly accused of "blowing the trumpet" on PEN both here and elsewhere. I post I what I believe to be correct, I leave it up to others to decide what to do with that information.
> 
> Last week I did state elsewhere that PEN would be just fine, and it is. PEN is in very good shape and well positioned to head into production. Next week we should hear of the first of the permit approvals. PEN is way a head of most of there peers now and my long held view of PEN will come to fruition.
> 
> Nothing has occurred to change that apart from peoples perception.




Fortune favours the brave, congratulations to those who caught the falling knives during an once in a lifetime opportunity  

I was pretty much immune to the frenzied media BS, many thanks to this article (and my HSC physics study )
http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-reactors-pose-no-risk-2011-3


----------



## Labtech

I liked this analysis of Fukushima (probably because it supports my opinion).

http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/plecture/bmonreal11/pdf/BMonreal11_PublicLecture_KITP.pdf


----------



## DB008

I believe in PEN, but have switched into REE (Rare Earth Elements (GGG + LYC)) for the moment.
I did sell down on PEN (small loss) last week, but l made it up with a 30+% gain this week. Will l get back into PEN in the future, sure will.


----------



## tech/a

Think PEN will now go back into a corrective phase and 12c will be the highest we see for a long while.
I expect it will revisit the 5-6c areas so be ready with all that spare cash.

Those that had a good chuckle a few weeks ago maybe a little more cautious going forward.
Been in and out 7.8c to 10.5--nice.


----------



## ColB

tech/a said:


> Think PEN will now go back into a corrective phase and 12c will be the highest we see for a long while.
> I expect it will revisit the 5-6c areas so be ready with all that spare cash.
> 
> Those that had a good chuckle a few weeks ago maybe a little more cautious going forward.
> Been in and out 7.8c to 10.5--nice.




Think PEN will not go lower than 9.5c near term and with positive news releases may be back above .12-13c within 2-4 weeks


----------



## skyQuake

ColB said:


> Think PEN will not go lower than 9.5c near term and with positive news releases may be back above .12-13c within 2-4 weeks




Oh what basis back to 12-13c again?

Gap fill today at 12c and fade, up 100% from the lows - imo would see a fair bit of selling.
Cant always rely on positive releases


----------



## ColB

skyQuake said:


> Oh what basis back to 12-13c again?
> 
> Gap fill today at 12c and fade, up 100% from the lows - imo would see a fair bit of selling.
> *Cant always rely* on positive releases




My post was a tongue in cheek reply to tech/a's assertion that he expects PEN to revisit the 5-6c area. 

I don't agree barring another nuclear accident. 

I respect his analysis and expected a sell off after it's rapid recovery from it's lows.  I bailed out of a short term trade at .115c on open yesterday due to that belief.  I wouldn't expect a 50% retracement just because it has gone up 100% from it's recent low.

I didn't say it's rise back up to 12-13c was solely reliant on positive news.  I  believe it will find a base around the 12-13c over the next fortnight. 

Save your embarrassment icon for someone that doesn't interpret posts in context


----------



## barney

barney said:


> *
> Todays Trades
> 
> *



*

24th March

Price ........ Shares Traded

9.8 cents ........ 3000

9.9 ................5,233,372

10  ...............15,424,096

10.5  .............1,124,067


Sellers were in total control today but they weren't that interested in selling 

Would not be surprised to see 10.5 get wiped tomorrow just after the open.*


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Would not be surprised to see 10.5 get wiped tomorrow just after the open.





As it turned out that did happen, but the sellers immediately returned with a vengeance.

Makes sense there will be a fundamental short term stalling period due to the world macro events coupled with the technical position of traders taking profits after the short term decimation and consequent rise of the SP.   

The current consolidation/profit taking/accumulation phase will be "interesting" for short term traders ..... and may or may not present opportunities for longer term traders


----------



## tech/a

> The current *consolidation/profit taking/accumulation phase* will be "interesting" for short term traders ..... and *may or may not* present opportunities for longer term traders




Consolidation/Profit taking AND accumulation all in the one sentence---- 

May or May NOT present opportunities.

Covered with the aplomb of a politicization.

I have a better description.

*Indecision.*


----------



## tech/a

> The current *consolidation/profit taking/accumulation phase* will be "interesting" for short term traders ..... and *may or may not* present opportunities for longer term traders




Consolidation/Profit taking AND accumulation all in the one sentence---- 

May or May NOT present opportunities.

Covered with the aplomb of a politician

I have a better description.

*Indecision.*


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Consolidation/Profit taking AND accumulation all in the one sentence----
> 
> May or May NOT present opportunities.
> 
> Covered with the *aplomb of a politician
> *
> I have a better description.
> 
> *Indecision.*





Lol ..... just call me Julia : ...... actually please don't call me Julia ... I like to speak the truth

I'm not really seeing indecision with this just yet tech.  Waiting for an opportunity or withdrawing from a position (be that a  buying or selling position) is a lot different to being unsure about your position.

Thursday/Friday for mine was profit taking by sellers in control.  The same as last time around this price level. 

If  we start seeing major share holder/s unwinding their positions, that would be a totally different ball game of course.

The immediate weight should technically be to the downside based on both weakened short term fundamental and technicals, so if the SP treads water anywhere within 10% of current levels, I'll see that as medium term bullish. 

If your 5-6 cents EW prediction comes to fruition I won't be happy, but I will take my hat off to you for calling it early 

ps I keep my spare cash in my hat


----------



## initforthemoney

Buying in again at the current 9c sp. What are everyone's thoughts on the current sp?

 I have been watching it for a while myself and have high expectations. The Japan earthquake was a huge speed hump but it clearly showed its resilience getting close to its original sp after only a few days. Im sure there were a lot of happy people who rode the wave on that one (no pun included)

Seeing a slight drop today which looks like It should correct itself soon. I look forward to seeing its price float above the 13-14c price again.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

initforthemoney said:


> Buying in again at the current 9c sp. What are everyone's thoughts on the current sp?



I'm with tech/a on this one... expecting a retrace to 6.5c at least (possibly 5.5c).


----------



## initforthemoney

What information do you have to support that? Im interested from a technical standpoint. 

I really doubt any sort of retraction, especially such an aggressive one we have seen. Unless of course there is another nuclear disaster which would cause a media uproar. 

Lets be honest, the earthquake in japan which affected 1 (one) nuclear power plant in the world really should not have had the effect that it did. We all know the real cause was people buying into the media hype and panicking like it was the end of the world which caused a huge selling chain reaction. That is what really killed the sp like it did. 

To be honest I was surprised at how quickly it bounced back, surely a sign of good things to come as pen shows its resilience.


----------



## mr. jeff

Before all the Japan issues were happening the game was up in the short term, all holders here saw that (in hindsight), but a lot were waiting for a return of strength. 

The register was full of people who just wanted to take as much profit out of PEN as they could (ie. believed in it), with little downside risk at the time. You can see that in the chart. It hit its high at 15.5c then came back around 12-13c and sat. 






Then came Fukushima and now there are a lot of speculators left wondering what to do when the bits hit the fan and they are mired in red numbers.
So now after waiting to see if the leg up will hold, they are getting out and standing aside whilst waiting for the next great idea to be sold to the market. 

Starting to wonder if this is going to be the status quo for a while with PEN, and Ux, (sp action wise) as the outlook has dimmed in the short term. This is not a reflection on the industry in any way, but relative to investor monies. The question is now present in everyone's mind, will PEN actually regain 12c in the short term ? Sentiment says much more likely not to than say a coal, gas or gold stock. So if you were still in profit, wouldn't you step aside and catch a different train ?
BTW I fit in the above description so I am in no way trying to be condescending.


----------



## tech/a

I expect PEN to wallow around for ages in the 11c to 7c range.
This final corrective phase will take a long while.
You wont see 15c visited again for a long long time.


----------



## EEE

I think we can all agree that in the short-term PEN is going to struggle with recent events, but back at company headquarters I hear its business as usual. Found this article concerning the 'Megatons to Megawatts' Program that is due to come to completion in 2013:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121125743

Considering that the U.S receive approx half of their nuclear fuel through this program, when it comes to an end in 2013 I think we can expect more upwards pressure on uranium prices.


----------



## tech/a

Worth a read for all Uranium buffs.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4240

These events are going to have governments very keen to develop safe and stable nuclear power.
The technologies is already available---watch the Vid.


----------



## EEE

A very interesting read tech and it seems that China are at the forefront for developing the technology:

http://www.larouchepac.com/node/17409

However with the goal being implementation 'in about 20 years', hopefully the price of yellowcake should hold up for a few years longer.

Some other interesting reads from the same site

Russian Scientists: Abandoning Nuclear Will Kill
http://www.larouchepac.com/node/17833

Tsunami of Hysteria Doesn't Make It Up the Beach; Asian Powers Continue Nuclear Programs
http://www.larouchepac.com/node/17828

China Moves Ahead with HTR: Nuclear "Workhorse" for Economic Development
http://www.larouchepac.com/node/17832


----------



## SevenFX

Nice UP day for PEN. ;-)


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Would someone care to do a valuation on what PEN may be worth and outlining the major assumptions (e.g. uranium price and discount rate)?




Broker research out... these guys must have read and responded to my post.

http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--daadaikeis.pdf




So NPV is 7.5c per share fully diluted based on U price of $US50 and AUD/USD 0.8?

Any comments?


----------



## chensteiger

Does that mean with the Aussie $ on par with the US $, the NPV value should be around 20% higher?


----------



## skc

chensteiger said:


> Does that mean with the Aussie $ on par with the US $, the NPV value should be around 20% higher?




Lower. U prices in $US translate to fewer $AUD...


----------



## barney

skc said:


> Lower. U prices in $US translate to fewer $AUD...





That is true SKC.

It should be noted however ......

1)  The Broker Report has discounted the NPV Factor by 35% to accommodate for PEN still being an explorer/non producer

2) PEN management have already signed off on their first off take agreement with a US Utility at a Uranium price of $70/lb (not $50), for 8% of their production (and a 7 year Contract)  

Even with the 35% NPV discount ..... at $70/lb , the SP is calculated at 14 cents per share. 

With a high AUD, that figure would be discounted of course  ..... ie. 40% premium on U sales Vs 23% downside on the AUD. (still in the black though)

A lot of water to go under the bridge yet ....... 

a) Possible acquisitions at cheap prices to offset the above scenario 

b) Once Production is started, the NPV discount will be decreased exponentially, so perhaps a 20% gain there.

c) Increased production/resource delineation which looks a certainty if the current results of Lance/ Karoo are any indication

d)  Raki Raki potential for increased bottom line

The Brokers have to be reasonably conservative to maintain credibility.  Even with a high AUD, the other positives seem to far out weigh any downside.  If we weigh in a possible improvement in the USD over the next year or two, which is on the cards, the numbers will get even better 

ps I'm no Fundy, so feel free to pick on my numbers


----------



## skc

barney said:


> That is true SKC.
> 
> It should be noted however ......
> 
> 1)  The Broker Report has discounted the NPV Factor by 35% to accommodate for PEN still being an explorer/non producer
> 
> 2) PEN management have already signed off on their first off take agreement with a US Utility at a Uranium price of $70/lb (not $50), for 8% of their production (and a 7 year Contract)
> 
> Even with the 35% NPV discount ..... at $70/lb , the SP is calculated at 14 cents per share.
> 
> With a high AUD, that figure would be discounted of course  ..... ie. 40% premium on U sales Vs 23% downside on the AUD. (still in the black though)
> 
> A lot of water to go under the bridge yet .......
> 
> a) Possible acquisitions at cheap prices to offset the above scenario
> 
> b) Once Production is started, the NPV discount will be decreased exponentially, so perhaps a 20% gain there.
> 
> c) Increased production/resource delineation which looks a certainty if the current results of Lance/ Karoo are any indication
> 
> d)  Raki Raki potential for increased bottom line
> 
> The Brokers have to be reasonably conservative to maintain credibility.  Even with a high AUD, the other positives seem to far out weigh any downside.  If we weigh in a possible improvement in the USD over the next year or two, which is on the cards, the numbers will get even better
> 
> ps I'm no Fundy, so feel free to pick on my numbers




I have to say that I was surprised that the value of PEN wasn't immediately obvious - as I've read somewhere that it is anything between a no-brainer to vastly undervalued...

The report certainly provides a starting point to a price for PEN shares. I think it is fair to discount NPV for an explorer (as they used only a discount rate of 10%). I think it's crazy for them to use AUD/USD = 0.8 as investing in PEN shouldn't be a speculation on currency. At a minimum they should provide some sensitivity analysis on the exchange rates...

Personally I would have valued it with discount rate of 15-20%, exchange rate of 1.0 and U price of $40-50 (8% of production at higher contracted price is good but not enough). If those numbers stack up then everything else would be bonus and the current share price would be vastly undervalued. 

Having said all that each investor is free to value the share for themselves based on his/her level of optimism / conservatism.


----------



## barney

skc said:


> I have to say that I was surprised that the value of PEN wasn't immediately obvious - as I've read somewhere that it is anything between a no-brainer to vastly undervalued...
> 
> The report certainly provides a starting point to a price for PEN shares. I think it is fair to discount NPV for an explorer (as they used only a discount rate of 10%). I think it's crazy for them to use AUD/USD = 0.8 as investing in PEN shouldn't be a speculation on currency. At a minimum they should provide some sensitivity analysis on the exchange rates...
> 
> Personally I would have valued it with discount rate of 15-20%, exchange rate of 1.0 and U price of $40-50 (8% of production at higher contracted price is good but not enough). If those numbers stack up then everything else would be bonus and the current share price would be vastly undervalued.
> 
> Having said all that each investor is free to value the share for themselves based on his/her level of optimism / conservatism.




Appreciate your input and agree with you on the exchange rate. When Hartleys put out their original Report in June 2009, the AUD was around 79-80 cents, so I guess they've continued on with that projection for continuity??   

Worth emphasizing the Company has indicated the size of their resources will eventually be much larger than the current Report is calculated on.  When both Karoo and Wyoming are proven up in time, their total resources will be many multiples of the current estimates. Working on that scenario, even with a low Spot U price and a high AUD, the numbers could look "scary" in a couple of years. 

Looking forward to getting the green light on final Permits, That should set up an interesting chain of events


----------



## hangseng

Yes barney permitting is going to be interesting to state the least.

However I believe a decision to mine based on a much improved DFS will be as interesting. For now though it seems PEN is a play thing of traders/shorters again. 

What will be will be, however I remain very positive about the medium to long term with PEN.


----------



## Labtech

It's been quiet.....Too quiet.


----------



## youngone

hangseng said:


> What will be will be, however I remain very positive about the medium to long term with PEN.




Do you think PEN will start picking up again in 1, 2 years?

(Former PEN holder)


----------



## hangseng

youngone said:


> Do you think PEN will start picking up again in 1, 2 years?
> 
> (Former PEN holder)




No I think PEN will pick up far sooner, as I do most quality U stocks now.

The media fear induced frenzy created an opportunity of a lifetime, that unfortunately some fell victim of. This sentiment won't last and PEN is moving forward as planned and unhindered. Just because the sp has been hit doesn't meean it is over for the company, far from it.

When this will turn around is truly anyones guess. However my views, that I have held since this started, are now shared by many. The media hype has now waned and moved on to greener pastures such as Libya (the media just loves a good civil war to speculate on impending doom).

I believe the turn around will catch many out in the cold.

A little read of two of the best recent articles I have read...

_*The True Costs of Electrification: The Future of Nuclear Power After Japan*April 4th, 2011 by Edward Blandford, Stanford University

"In 2000, Neil Armstrong, on behalf of the National Academies of Engineering, announced the 20 engineering achievements of the 20th century that have had the greatest impact on quality of life. At the top of the list: the electrification of the United States, which, he noted, changed the country is economic development and gave rural populations the same opportunities and amenities as people in the cities.If anything shines as an example of how engineering has changed the world during the 20th century, he observed, it is clearly the power that we use in our homes and businesses.

Much attention will be paid to electricity generation in the days and weeks to come, and in particular to its relationship to the future role of commercial nuclear energy. The unfolding crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station in northern Japan has raised critical questions about the use of nuclear energy, the potential alternatives, and the costs and benefits to maintaining current plants and building new ones. More specifically, the disaster at Fukushima will highlight what may well be the most adverse unintended consequence of the electrification of the United States: palpable widespread consumer ignorance about the true cost of electricity.

Let's look at the figures: According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average annual electricity consumption in 2008 for a U.S. residential utility customer was slightly more than 11,000 kilowatt hours (kWh). The average consumer price per kWh was around 8 cents. Assuming a median annual household income of roughly $50,000, the typical American household allocates slightly less than 2 percent of their annual income to all residential electricity demands. But as Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor Richard Lester [1] has noted, from the customer's perspective, a nuclear kilowatt hour is indistinguishable from a solar or a coal kilowatt hour.

*Therein lies one of the fundamental problems.* 

Since the inception of power generation and distribution, the use of various fuel sources has resulted in substantial environmental, political, national security, and public health consequences that are not internalized in that 8 cents per kWh figure. Hidden in the cost at the meter are the human health impacts and the irreversible environmental degradation [2] that come from the use of fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. According to a 2010 United States National Research Council (NRC) report, the hidden health and environmental costs of all U.S. energy production and consumption totaled a staggering $120 billion in 2005, with nearly half coming from coal-generated electricity. Life-cycle CO2 emissions from nuclear, wind, biomass and solar power appear to be negligible when compared with fossil fuels, the report says. It goes on to say that the fuel cycle of nuclear power does pose some risks, mostly from the health impacts from uranium mining activities.

In the wake of Japan's nuclear crisis, it is time for this country to be honest and confront the true cost of generating electricity. Indeed, as we reflect upon the ongoing situation in Japan, and attempt to answer the many questions about the future of nuclear energy, here?s to hoping that the post- Fukushima societal calculus involves a much better understanding of the hidden costs associated with delivering cheap and reliable electricity. If it does, nuclear energy will likely continue to be a vital component of the global energy generation portfolio. If it does not, we will all be reminded that merely hoping for a careful consideration of the costs and benefits is not enough, and there is a reason why hope was all that remained in Pandoras jar."_

source (and more information): 
http://www.energypolicyblog.com/201...tion-the-future-of-nuclear-power-after-japan/


And if this hasn't been read before it should be, especially all the ones that call constantly for "balanced" posts and yet posted nothing but one sided negatives since the Earthquake and resultant Tsunami. Yes "Tsunami" induced event, not Nuclear accident as was Chernobyl and 3 mile.


This is an excellent article IMO...

In part...

_*Nuclear as Usual: Why Fukushima Will Change Less Than You Think*
By Jesse Jenkins, Ted Nordhaus & Michael Shellenberger 
Mar 23 2011, 12:52 PM ET 


"Jesse Jenkins, Ted Nordhaus & Michael Shellenberger - Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger co-founded the Breakthrough Institute, an energy-focused think tank. Jesse Jenkins is the director of energy and climate policy at Breakthrough. 


Despite the sturm-und-drang and political posturing about the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the event won't do much to change the basic political economy of atomic energy 



From virtually the moment that reports first hit the international media that there were problems at the Fukushima nuclear plants, speculation about the impact that the accident would have upon the future of nuclear power overwhelmed accurate information about the actual nature and severity of the accident. 

While the full extent of the accident is still unclear and may remain so for many weeks or months, one thing is clear and has been since the very earliest reports of trouble. The public health, economic, and environmental impacts of the Fukushima accident will pale beside those of the natural disaster that caused it. 

Total fatalities resulting from the earthquake and tsunami will likely exceed 20,000 and has left close to a half million people homeless. The economic loss associated with the disaster has been estimated at up to $300 billion. The tsunami has scattered the civilizational detritus of what was much of northeastern Japan over a landscape of hundreds of square miles. 

Even in the worst case, involving the full meltdown of multiple reactors and a significant breach of containment, there are no credible scenarios wherein the Fukushima accident could conceivably have racked up a similar human, economic, or environmental toll. Nonetheless, Fukushima was the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl and anti-nuclear activists were quick to make the comparison. Never mind that the Chernobyl disaster resulted from an explosive fire at an uncontained reactor of a far more dangerous design that exposed vastly more people to vastly more radiation than Fukushima could ever possibly result in."_
source and full article: 
http://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...ushima-will-change-less-than-you-think/72913/


----------



## burglar

tech/a said:


> I expect PEN to wallow around for ages in the 11c to 7c range.
> This final corrective phase will take a long while.
> You wont see 15c visited again for a long long time.




I agree with the Duck!

It's about shareholder sentiment, which is very slow to come back from disaster, as opposed to fundamentals of PEN, which are undisputed.


Could well be a few exciting moments of history unfolding!


----------



## tech/a

skc said:


> Broker research out... these guys must have read and responded to my post.
> 
> http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--daadaikeis.pdf
> 
> View attachment 42206
> 
> 
> So NPV is 7.5c per share fully diluted based on U price of $US50 and AUD/USD 0.8?
> 
> Any comments?




Largely missed by the faithful

The *OPPORTUNITY* of 16c a share has come and gone!
It will I feel remain at value until something throws it to undervalued---not just opinion or Company fluff!

Technically the analysis remains valid.
Not one techies would have an interest in.


----------



## bathuu

Another earthquake in Japan. Testing uranium stocks again now. I wonder how would traders feel about that. It is time to do some observation


----------



## Miner

bathuu said:


> Another earthquake in Japan. Testing uranium stocks again *now.* I wonder how would traders feel about that. It is time to do some observation




Thanks for your post.
I would never put a smiley on my posting while dealing with people tragedy like Earthquake in Japan.
Probably the best winning construction contractor to repair a devasted town will not put a smiley sign on such postings.
I am just expressing myself  recognising  PEN's SP  is volatile on people reaction on emotions associated with nuclear related matters than the real economic advantages from nuclear powered station and environmental benefits in a long run, but can not cope up with people's elation on matters related to people tragedy.
Every one has a right to express opinion and so I am.


----------



## tech/a

Miner said:


> Thanks for your post.
> I would never put a smiley on my posting while dealing with people tragedy like Earthquake in Japan.
> Probably the best winning construction contractor to repair a devasted town will not put a smiley sign on such postings.
> I am just expressing myself  recognising  PEN's SP  is volatile on people reaction on emotions associated with nuclear related matters than the real economic advantages from nuclear powered station and environmental benefits in a long run, but can not cope up with people's elation on matters related to people tragedy.
> Every one has a right to express opinion and so I am.




*Get a grip*.
Would never have been his intention---your reading much more into a benign post *AGAIN*.
You appear to be quite an antagonistic opinionated character.

Purely expressing my right of opinion of course.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> *Get a grip*.
> Would never have been his intention---your reading much more into a benign post *AGAIN*.
> You appear to be quite an antagonistic opinionated character.
> 
> Purely expressing my right of opinion of course.





If not  the intention then why do it, and how would you know what the intention was anyway?

Many a ST trader has been doing the same of late elsewhere, finding joy out of any of this I find truly amasing that anyone could do so. Trade the opportunity by all means but leave it as trading only. So many traders now coming out professing to know anything fundamental to justify their negative view is truly a joke.

You speak of "antagonistic opinionated character", that is interesting considering your style of derogatory, if not belittling "I told you so" posting of late.

As I said before I respect your T/A, but I must say that's where it ends.

Miner is what I would regard as one of the best informed and intelligent posters i have ever come across on any forum. Knowing his profession and background and a litle of him personally now,  I for one find great value in his opinion and it is far from your derogatory descriptors that belong firmly in your sig IMO.

PEN will be just fine and I look forward to the final judgement day immensely. I truly believe in Karma and it so often occurs.


----------



## spudman

Good afternoon HS, long time no hear LOL


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> If not  the intention then why do it, and how would you know what the intention was anyway?
> 
> Many a ST trader has been doing the same of late elsewhere, finding joy out of any of this I find truly amasing that anyone could do so. Trade the opportunity by all means but leave it as trading only. So many traders now coming out professing to know anything fundamental to justify their negative view is truly a joke.
> 
> You speak of "antagonistic opinionated character", that is interesting considering your style of derogatory, if not belittling "I told you so" posting of late.
> 
> As I said before I respect your T/A, but I must say that's where it ends.
> 
> Miner is what I would regard as one of the best informed and intelligent posters i have ever come across on any forum. Knowing his profession and background and a litle of him personally now,  I for one find great value in his opinion and it is far from your derogatory descriptors that belong firmly in your sig IMO.
> 
> PEN will be just fine and I look forward to the final judgement day immensely. I truly believe in Karma and it so often occurs.




Ah

Another opinion. Like armpits---everyone has a few.

You all must be buying your brains out at this price!!
Particularly as It wasnt EVER expected to get this low!

Back to it girls.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Ah
> 
> Another opinion. Like armpits---everyone has a few.
> 
> You all must be buying your brains out at this price!!
> Particularly as It wasnt EVER expected to get this low!
> 
> Back to it girls.




No doubt with your genius and foresight you saw this Tsunami coming I suppose? Of course you did, just like other posters have said elsewhere they can predict announcements on charts. Of course they can!!!! LOL

Transparent and  as ever tech and I can't describe you any better than your own derogatory words of late _"antagonistic opinionated character"_.

Best you go back to your fortune cookies and tea leaf reading.

PEN will be fine and I welcome you back here on the day. No doubt you will come back forecasting the next once in a thousand year event nostradameus like.

Just another day trader tech. Talk PEN up when you are in and talk it down once out...yawn...


----------



## hangseng

spudman said:


> Good afternoon HS, long time no hear LOL




Hi spudman, fancy seeing you here 

Look forward to your input mate. Good to see intelligent informed posters coming here.


----------



## jasejdv3

Its nice to see some familar names on Aussie stock forums. ( I came over for a look from HC)  will have to keep coming back.


----------



## hangseng

jasejdv3 said:


> Its nice to see some familar names on Aussie stock forums. ( I came over for a look from HC)  will have to keep coming back.




Welcome jasejdv3, more the merrier. Another poster of good information.


----------



## jasejdv3

Im more then happy where PEN is heading ( and that something illl keep posting) sure there were some scarey moments with the recent events in japan. But either way the world needs lots of electricity generation and that aint going change, we need to reduce Co2 going into the air (nuclear provides both of these options) 

So Im quite happy to sit back and enjoy the ride that PEN will offer (its a near term producer, with plenty of upside), with so much news happening in the coming weeks /months I just wish I had more available funds. One only needs to look at URZ.

p.s HS its nice to see that you are posting on Aussie stock forums. Cheers jasejdv3

Please undertake your own research, after all its your money, this post is propably worth what you paid for it!!


----------



## Purd2

Spudman....SlÃ¡inte!

We might find that we can call the CEO and pass on his comments on this forum.

PEN is in good hands and although we have some clashes here; in reality is only perspective versus intent that causes this.  

We who are invested in PEN for long term gain don't see eye to eye with the chartists who are looking at day by day progressions. 
That's fine we just need to appreciate the needs/goals of everyone as there are so many perspectives that each person that buys/holds/sells has different circumstances to others and therefore comments on threads like this will clash at times. 
As I said to one of my friends:-

_*WE are underpinning our futures with an investment that is nearly a given. Our destinations are incongruent to those with other agendas
*_


----------



## tech/a

> WE are underpinning our futures with an investment that is nearly a given. Our destinations are incongruent to those with other agendas




Touching.

I just cant get past an "Investor" that sits buy and watches his "Investment"
lose 60% of its value and fail to capitalize on it! Whilst talking it up in the 10c+ area yet stone quiet at 6c-7c.

You guys puff each other up as astute value investors yet I see some pretty basic investment errors in the short time Ive been on this thread. Rose colored glasses.

Just another opinion.


----------



## svengali

tech/a said:


> Touching.
> 
> I just cant get past an "Investor" that sits buy and watches his "Investment"
> lose 60% of its value and fail to capitalize on it! Whilst talking it up in the 10c+ area yet stone quiet at 6c-7c.
> 
> You guys puff each other up as astute value investors yet I see some pretty basic investment errors in the short time Ive been on this thread. Rose colored glasses.
> 
> Just another opinion.





Tech

I've just come over from another site that has dozens of posters like yours here , berating PEN shareholders for their shortcomings (according to you !!!!)

Everyone can do as they please, and will reap the results of their investment actions. I am a medium/long term holder and although I do my own charts I don't trade short term, I came in at a very low price and I should reap the benefits and thats's reward enough for me

I hope you mean well but please perhaps if you refrain from telling us what we should and should not do, and just concentrate on positive input then you will be of most help to all

I've landed and go the PEN


----------



## tech/a

Yeh good point.

If your holding from 3.5 cents and watched it go to 10c then back to 1.5c then up to 16 cents then back to 6c-----who gives a rats its still in profit eh!

12 years ago it was 40c in 12 yrs time it could well be double that.
Or half 6c--or half 3c.

Yeh good point.

*Ill tell you all why I rat on about this.*

Back 17 yrs ago I was doing the securities institute Tech analysis course 101
I became friends with a Young broker named Mark.
He went to great lengths to tell me why I should buy DVT--Davnet.
He had just bought 100000 at 6.5c $6500 was a sizable investment for this 22 yr old.

He moved a few months later to Sydney and we kept in touch by phone and he kept pointing out the price as it rose to $5---why dont you sell them I said his wage was $35K a year.---No it will make me a million ill sell at $10.07c

It reached $7.54 I think. Mark was still holding at $2.30 ish when I last heard from him and it was still going to make him that million.--- 2 yrs later (From memory) it was de listed-----------
I havent heard from Mark for many many years-----I doubt he is brokering!

The lesson is seldom learnt I find.


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> If not  the intention then why do it, and how would you know what the intention was anyway?
> 
> Many a ST trader has been doing the same of late elsewhere, finding joy out of any of this I find truly amasing that anyone could do so. Trade the opportunity by all means but leave it as trading only. So many traders now coming out professing to know anything fundamental to justify their negative view is truly a joke.
> 
> You speak of "antagonistic opinionated character", that is interesting considering your style of derogatory, if not belittling "I told you so" posting of late.
> 
> As I said before I respect your T/A, but I must say that's where it ends.
> 
> Miner is what I would regard as one of the best informed and intelligent posters i have ever come across on any forum. Knowing his profession and background and a litle of him personally now,  I for one find great value in his opinion and it is far from your derogatory descriptors that belong firmly in your sig IMO.
> 
> PEN will be just fine and I look forward to the final judgement day immensely. I truly believe in Karma and it so often occurs.




Dear HS

thanks for your kind  words for  me and continous value added postings on PEN.

Your contributions are well accepted by all positive minded investors in ASF.

Every one has or supposed to have his or her own strategy to make money. And PEN also has its own strategy to grow and return to investors. Does not matter what short term fall shows, the fact PEN has been hovering around more than three times the price it issused rights to the existing share holders not long ago.

So if some one is trading to get overnight rich through PEN then it is his or her strategy. 

Regarding ill worded personal comments from one of the posters against me than my postings, I have nothing to loose. I am thankful to ASF for having a unique system calling 'ignore' list. I have put those posters in my ignore list so that I do not have to read them.

Let us move on PEN and it is only matter of time. PDN and ERA was also at their infancy stage. I am sure PEN will steer us towards it with a bit patience. My target is 2015 and I have patience for PEN and its business case.


----------



## bukka

Gday Everyone
I have just joined ASF upon recommendation. I have held PEN since the 08 I think when it was in the 4s and followed it down to 1.5 buying all the down and all the way up. Im very much looking forward to the next 12/24 months as I believe PEN will change the lives of many Investors who have chosen to invest with PEN and hold.
Good luck to you all.
Cheers Bukka


----------



## nunthewiser

oh dear.

sorry guys but i must let you in on a little secret.

PEN is just another penny dread... there often are many reasons for the low market caps surrounding these companys.

scroll back in this thread and you will see my entrance b4 it got pumped.......... now open ya charts to a 10 year view....... notice anything? 

probably not.

gotta love cycles

but "investors" seem to ignore them

Excellent position TRADING stock, Been in and out of this pound pup since the early 2000,s it has been well documented in commsec chat from way back then when it also was still a penny dreadful

My posts can be searched under "geroanyday" via the chat search facility there.

Hot4$ if you reading this .cheers

as you were


----------



## Boggo

nunthewiser said:


> gotta love cycles
> 
> but "investors" seem to ignore them




Agree entirely nun.

Don't discourage the penny dreadful 'investors' though, without them traders would have nobody to sell to when each cycle ends


----------



## Miner

bukka said:


> Gday Everyone
> I have just joined ASF upon recommendation. I have held PEN since the 08 I think when it was in the 4s and followed it down to 1.5 buying all the down and all the way up. Im very much looking forward to the next 12/24 months as I believe PEN will change the lives of many Investors who have chosen to invest with PEN and hold.
> Good luck to you all.
> Cheers Bukka




Dear Bukka

Welcome to ASF and your first posting

I am sure you will enjoy ASF forum and its postings.

There are always some noise like all sites or graphs. But I am sure you would make it use of the forum by using smoothening techniques on graphs and filters for noise.

Please go forward and best of luck

Cheers


----------



## Miner

Boggo said:


> Agree entirely nun.
> 
> Don't discourage the penny dreadful 'investors' though, without them traders would have nobody to sell to when each cycle ends




Thanks Boggo for a very good concise  and balanced expression .


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Some people are happy to ride out the big drops; what's wrong with that?  So long as you have a 10+yr time frame and you know the people at the helm  (essential IMO) and really believe in them, you couldn't go too far wrong.  If you had a huge position and a long term time frame, the last thing you would want to do is start trading every few weeks/months.  You'd get whipsawed.  Personally I couldn't do that with a company as small as PEN (too risky).  I think that sort of approach is better suited to big caps.

- People and fundamentals drive the _long term_ SP
- Technicals drive the _short to medium_ term SP
- Market depth and drives the _immediate_ movements of the SP

Apples and oranges.


----------



## Julia

nunthewiser said:


> gotta love cycles
> 
> but "investors" seem to ignore them



Agree with your post.  However, re the phrase above, isn't that the point of being an 'investor', i.e. that they do ignore cycles and take the very long term view?

NB  The above comment shouldn't be taken as any sort of opinion about the stock, about which I know nothing.


----------



## Billyb

nunthewiser said:


> gotta love cycles
> 
> but "investors" seem to ignore theme




It's important to appreciate different investing styles. Not everyone has the time nor motivation to get into stocks when they break out and get out right before they fall. Many prefer to put their money in the market and let it grow. Over a long term, they make good money with minimal effort. It's arguable that traders who ride the cycles make good money but with a lot more effort. Seeing the advantages of both sides is being open minded.


----------



## bathuu

Boggo said:


> without them traders would have nobody to sell to when each cycle ends




Without traders, investors would have nobody to buy from when each cycle ends


----------



## nunthewiser

yes im sorry .

you guys are obviously correct in your long term view of this poundpup.

where else could i buy a stock at the same price 10 years ago with absolutely zero return if held that long with numerous dilutions to my holdings in that time.

but hey ignore the 10 yr chart if it makes you happier.

cycles  on penny dreadfuls rock


----------



## Gringotts Bank

That's exactly right, the large majority of penny stocks go nowhere (or bankrupt) in the long term.  So you either need to be very sure of the people running the company, or you invest with blue chips only.  

Investing in PEN for long term makes it very high risk and very high potential return.  That's ok, we know the risks now.  Hopefully for those holding it will do an FMG.


----------



## hangseng

bathuu said:


> Without traders, investors would have nobody to buy from when each cycle ends




Stated like a typically uninformed trader with no idea of what the company is, or has been doing.

PEN wasn't PEN 10 years ago. 

Do your homework (of which you clearly didn't) and you will see what I am posting about, as has been posted here and elsewhere many times before.

Also all you outstanding traders must clearly pick the top and bottom correctly everytime eh? The comments are smug and trite and IMO based on historical events, not what you actually did. If you did pick every top and bottom everytime you would be outstandingly wealthy, that I doubt very much is the case. 

Ignorance abounds the forums with traders espousing daily brilliance leading the herd (more like leading them on as they post to their book).

On the flipside I have done my homework on PEN and the board and management. Never have I felt more comfortable with a "penny stock" that it will prove to be what I have always thought it would be. Fundamentally PEN is doing what they said they would and more.

When Gus returns from the US roadshow in Chicago and NYC I am sure there will be more for us to see than is in the stated mielstones to come. Traders as usual will chase the run and once on board will espouse how wonderful the company is, then once sold state the opposite. 

As predictable and transparent as the sun rising and setting each day.


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> Do your homework (of which you clearly didn't) and you will see what I am posting about, as has been posted here and elsewhere many times before.
> 
> Also all you outstanding traders must clearly pick the top and bottom correctly everytime eh? The comments are smug and trite and IMO based on historical events, not what you actually did. If you did pick every top and bottom everytime you would be outstandingly wealthy, that I doubt very much is the case.




Just wondering if you are applying the same "investment" ideas now that you were in July 2008.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2192&p=315278&viewfull=1#post315278

With a bit of luck GBG should soon be back to the same price that you bought it at back then.


----------



## ob1kinobi

Boggo said:


> Just wondering if you are applying the same "investment" ideas now that you were in July 2008.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2192&p=315278&viewfull=1#post315278
> 
> With a bit of luck GBG should soon be back to the same price that you bought it at back then.




C'mon Boggo et al, debate is fine but is this really necessary.

Regardless of what you think of HS and his 'investment ideas', at  least give him credit for putting his views out there. 

In my view it was the Earthquake and Tsunami that really put a damper on things, sure the SP was due for a correction but a 60% fall! Not likely. 

I doubt sentiment will improve dramatically ST or even MT, and I would expect the SP to remain subdued.  It seems to have found ST support at 0.89 though.

I'm with Tech/A on this, traders, have moved on and are watching from the sidelines.

Re: The trader vs investor debate, we all need one another eh that's what makes the market after all.


----------



## Miner

Boggo said:


> Just wondering if you are applying the same "investment" ideas now that you were in July 2008.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2192&p=315278&viewfull=1#post315278
> 
> With a bit of luck GBG should soon be back to the same price that you bought it at back then.




Dear Boggo

Can we have discussion limited to PEN here?

As all financial investment disclaimer says past performance is no indication of repeat performance.

Let us focus on the strengths  and weaknesses of PEN as a scrip and the posting than distracting to any other non relevant script.

I urge you please use PM to deal with your personal issues with HS if any and refrain discussing on  non PEN related issues. Personally focussing on PEN and contribution from HS - let us keep off any personal bias here. The quality of contribution based on facts and figures from HS have been unmatched quality and outstanding. I urge you please provide same level of quality of information here than just criticsing him for non PEN related issues. It does not help any one and outcome is negative. Thanks for keeping the best flavour of ASF.

thanks


----------



## tech/a

Think there is more written than traded in this thread.

Id be surprised and I'm sure so would others to find how much is actually held by the "long term" holders of PEN.

Well done Boggo seems you have done your research--and they dont like it!


----------



## skc

Miner said:


> I urge you please provide same level of quality of information here than just criticsing him for non PEN related issues. It does not help any one and outcome is negative. Thanks for keeping the best flavour of ASF.




I am with you here Miner. Hangseng as far as I know is investing his own money - where and how he invest is not really anyone else's concern. So feel free to post bullish/bearish views on the company - but leave someone else's own investment alone. 

From what I have seen (based on the broker report earlier) PEN's share price is fairly priced at 9c, was pretty cheap at 6c, and require pretty optimistic views to support 15c. However, as a potential investor (which I am for any stock) I am always happy to hear from those with better knowledge why a certain company should worth more than the current share price.


----------



## ColB

tech/a said:


> Think there is more written than traded in this thread.
> 
> Id be surprised and I'm sure so would others to find how much is actually held by the "long term" holders of PEN.
> 
> *Well done Boggo seems you have done your research*--and they dont like it!




Yeah, well done Boggo!  An astounding bit of research.  Do you want me to waste my time trawling through ASF to find one of your posts where you have erred in your prediction or analysis.  

The Tsunami was no different to the GFC in terms of its impact on the SP of PEN and you could just have easily been exposed to a significant loss had you been in a short term trade at the time.  

As others have already pointed out, unless there is some relevant fundamental or technical comment to make about PEN whether positive or negative, perhaps we should stick to that and not grandstand about how much smarter we think we are than someone-else.

It's rather sad to see you and Tech who generally offer a great deal to this forum stoop to denigrating PEN posters who choose their stock based on fundamental analysis.


----------



## tech/a

> It's rather sad to see you and Tech who generally offer a great deal to this forum stoop to denigrating PEN posters who choose their stock based on fundamental analysis.




On that then would a Findie who follows every announcement with baited breath please explain the following.

The price is currently 8.8c
The last time it was that was back in JANURARY.

These are the ANNOUNCEMENTS from then to now.





PEN Rose vertically before Japan on the back of these announcements.
*The market in general has recovered all its losses* from the Japan crisis.
Yet PEN has struggled to regain past glory.

Even while the market has forged forward over the last week PEN has fallen from lack of demand. *Imagine what will happen* when the market falls----

*So the market must be completely ignoring these announcements?*---NOW!!

After all they are the REAL drivers of this stock---aren't they??? they've driven it before and 



> When Gus returns from the US roadshow in Chicago and NYC I am sure there will be more for us to see than is in the stated mielstones to come. Traders as usual will chase the run and once on board will espouse how wonderful the company is, then once sold state the opposite.




They will do it again---wont they?

Or could it be that those who are in the market realize that* PRICE IS* the real determination of *VALUE*.

You see its *NOT ABOUT PEN*

If you've read my posts Ive not knocked the company---but Ive questioned those "investors" and their methods.

To me its about balancing views so that newbies dont fall for that bottomless pit of trading on belief and hope---of falling in love with a stock and being blinded to the real art of this* business* regardless of investing OR trading.

The simple premise of cutting losses and letting profits run is lost with most on this thread.

I'm sure in the future this thread will be referenced as a trading example---for many years to come.
Its on my watch list!!


----------



## Boggo

Relax everyone, I simply responded to hangseng's post (below) where he was having a dig at traders.
The reference to GBG was my attempt to display that in general the buy and hold concept is a crock in most cases (look at the TLS "investors as an example) and applying the simple logic that if it not going up it is costing you money regardless of when Gus gets back from America.
I won't even bother expanding the same concept with Storm.

Please understand that I am not attacking hangseng.

I am defending the traders approach from his statement below.
Learn how to manage your money rather than having the likes of Timbercorp or Telstra etc 'managers' looking after it for you or sitting on GBG for nearly three years and still in the red, thats the difference between a trader and an investor.

I cannot grasp the concept that you can sit and watch the value of your portfolio diminish but find it acceptable. On average it will probably cost $20 to sell a stock and save yourself thousands and then for another $20 you can buy it back when it is going up and stands a chance of increasing in value.

A trader is a hands on manager of their money whereas an investor is at the mercy of someone that you know little about except what they tell you.

Back on topic - PEN - chart below.
Below 12c - not interested, above 12.5c - may be worth watching and at or above 14c I would compare it to what else has got my interest on the day.



hangseng said:


> Stated like a typically uninformed trader with no idea of what the company is, or has been doing.
> 
> PEN wasn't PEN 10 years ago.
> 
> Do your homework (of which you clearly didn't) and you will see what I am posting about, as has been posted here and elsewhere many times before.
> 
> Also all you outstanding traders must clearly pick the top and bottom correctly everytime eh? The comments are smug and trite and IMO based on historical events, not what you actually did. If you did pick every top and bottom everytime you would be outstandingly wealthy, that I doubt very much is the case.
> 
> Ignorance abounds the forums with traders espousing daily brilliance leading the herd (more like leading them on as they post to their book).
> 
> On the flipside I have done my homework on PEN and the board and management. Never have I felt more comfortable with a "penny stock" that it will prove to be what I have always thought it would be. Fundamentally PEN is doing what they said they would and more.
> 
> When Gus returns from the US roadshow in Chicago and NYC I am sure there will be more for us to see than is in the stated mielstones to come. Traders as usual will chase the run and once on board will espouse how wonderful the company is, then once sold state the opposite.
> 
> As predictable and transparent as the sun rising and setting each day.




(click to expand)


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> Just wondering if you are applying the same "investment" ideas now that you were in July 2008.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2192&p=315278&viewfull=1#post315278
> 
> With a bit of luck GBG should soon be back to the same price that you bought it at back then.




16th-July-2008 

Perhaps you tell everyone here how it was your brilliance identified the worst we have seen on the world financial markets for a very long time. Did you see it coming? If you did no doubt you to are now an incredibly wealthy person. I think not.

If you knew what I did back then you wouldn't be so smug.

GBG is and remains a quality stock IMO, PEN will also prove many a person wrong.

For now all I am really interested in is seeing the DFS of PEN and the DWDW permit in place. Two more milestones that will display the quality of the Lance project and management of PEN.

The herd as usual will follow, as sure as night follows day.


----------



## hangseng

"







> _  Originally Posted by Boggo:
> A trader is a hands on manager of their money whereas an investor is at the mercy of someone that you know little about except what they tell you._



"

Boggo your implied view that only traders are "hands on managers of their money" is an ignorant assumption.

I am an investor and very much a "hands on manager of my money". Using methods that are disciplined in approach and a willingness to make decisions as required.

One such example with me in my SMSF was to sell a stock that many brokers espoused high views on. I to still see this company as a great business, however it was mismanaged finacially IMO and now clearly the opinion of lenders. I sold HST when they were paying good dividends and had appreciated in sp value more than I believed they would. I sold due to the seemingly rising debt levels, despite the masssive profitable work in hand they had. This as it turned out was an excellent decision based on fundamentals, nothing more, with the company now in suspension.

I then used those funds to buy more of a stock sub 3.5c posters said was anything from a dog to being the laughing stock of the ASX. PEN has proven to be anything other than that.

Yes it may come of a surprise to you, but (some) investors do and should manage their investments in a disciplined manner. That doesn't mean following the herd, hype and baseless innuendo.

My post to our ignorant fellow poster was the fact he was using irrelevant data of a 10 year chart. PEN became PEN 12/05/2004, pereviously it was the delisted Kanowna lights and nothing to do with PENs operations of 2007 until today. It displayed the erroneous methods employed by some T/A posters.

Also the example you chose to use of GBG you will see my view was well supported by both T/A posters and fundamental views. I thank you for pointing that out. Yes we had it wrong, but with the benefit of hindsight we would all make the right decisions all the time now wouldn't we.

I am far from the perfect investor, if there is such a thing. However I am a manager of my money and have now proven over time that the methods I employ are to the significant benefit of my SMSF. I don't buy and hold blindly as you wrongly assume and imply. 

If PEN made a wrong move away from the current successful development path, I would be out quicker than you could respond to this post. The difference with many posters, is I will tell what I did and whay I did it if it ever came to that. At this point I can see no reason to make such a decision, in fact if I was in the position that I could, I would be now preparing to buy a truck load of PEN. Unfortunately I am not.

The innacurate subjective assumptions posters make about investing never ceases to amase me. Like ST traders are the only ones that can make money...yeah right!


----------



## ColB

tech/a said:


> "...PEN Rose vertically before Japan on the back of these announcements.
> *The market in general has recovered all its losses* from the Japan crisis.
> Yet PEN has struggled to regain past glory.
> 
> Even while the market has forged forward over the last week PEN has fallen from lack of demand. *Imagine what will happen* when the market falls..."




Tech, Whilst the general market may have recovered all its losses the uranium sector has not.  PEN is not the only uranium stock to remain very much below it's recent highs.  See PDN, ERA etc

There is no doubt that sentiment has continued to supress this sector but based on several recent media articles and perhaps a general accceptance that the nuclear industry is not going away any time soon you will see a rebound in the sector.


----------



## hangseng

ColB said:


> Tech, Whilst the general market may have recovered all its losses the uranium sector has not.  PEN is not the only uranium stock to remain very much below it's recent highs.  See PDN, ERA etc
> 
> There is no doubt that sentiment has continued to supress this sector but based on several recent media articles and perhaps a general accceptance that the nuclear industry is not going away any time soon you will see a rebound in the sector.




How refreshing to read the words of logic and reason, After the last few weeks something that seems to have gone out the window en mass.


----------



## gnealson

Hangseng

I for one am sick of reading about 'hangseng' in the PEN forum.  You claim to be only interested in PEN discussions yet you seem to spend a lot of time talking about yourself.  The implied message is clearly 'I am a successful investor, therefore you should trust my views of PEN more than those who disagree'.

So to my mind that puts 'hangseng' on the table for discussion and it's fair game for us to look critically at the previous judgements and track record of 'hangseng' as long as he/she continues to soapbox about how successful and amazing hangseng is at FA.



hangseng said:


> ""
> I then used those funds to buy more of a stock sub 3.5c posters said was anything from a dog to being the laughing stock of the ASX. PEN has proven to be anything other than that.




The problem with this reasoning is that while you claim to be a fundamental investor, your 'proof' is the short term price.  As we know, the price has been above 10 cents before this most recent time and it ended up below 2 cents shortly after, so price is very poor 'proof' indeed.



hangseng said:


> ""
> My post to our ignorant fellow poster was the fact he was using irrelevant data of a 10 year chart. PEN became PEN 12/05/2004, pereviously it was the delisted Kanowna lights and nothing to do with PENs operations of 2007 until today.




What you've conveniently smoothed over is that PEN was a gold company that rose above 10 cents for a time (with you spruiking it to high heaven the same way you do now).  You had the same irate over-confidence and refusal to listen to other views back then that you do now.  You said the MD was a genius, that the company's prospects were infinitely positive, etc, etc.  Yet you were wrong.  The MD was replaced, the business was all but abandoned to move onto the next hot thing.

You could have and I bet you did argue that price proved you were correct last time, but we can see how spurious that reasoning was because it was not only the TA you got wrong, but also the FA.  PEN totally and utterly failed as a Gold company.  Everyone makes mistakes, that's fine, but I've never seen you present facts about yourself or PEN in a balanced way.  There's always something major that gets left out because it doesn't support the point you're trying to prove.  I can't trust the judgement or opinions of someone who consistently fails to present the negatives in the same manner as the positives.

Again, when you stop talking about yourself to buttress your PEN arguments, you'll cease to be an object of scrutiny.



hangseng said:


> ""
> I am far from the perfect investor, if there is such a thing. However I am a manager of my money and have now proven over time that the methods I employ are to the significant benefit of my SMSF. I don't buy and hold blindly as you wrongly assume and imply.




Possibly you don't, but holding and spruiking PEN over the period you have, with it oscillating between 10+ cents and sub 2 cents twice, and completely changing its staff and business.... it sure looks like a 'buy and hold' (no matter what) strategy to me.



hangseng said:


> ""
> If PEN made a wrong move away from the current successful development path, I would be out quicker than you could respond to this post.




The history is there on hotcopper.  You held PEN from 10 cents down into the low 5s over a period of months before you finally managed to sell.  The GFC didn't happen in a day, it happened over a year at least, yet you didn't manage to perceive it as a problem and you didn't manage to sell until PEN had fallen at least 50%.  So you argue that your judgement isn't impaired and that you're cool headed and impartial (so therefore we should listen to you instead of others), yet your track record shows otherwise.

If I was you, I'd take 'Hangseng' off the table and do what you claim to be interested in.... just confine your comments to PEN.  Let the facts about PEN speak for themselves, because the facts about Hangseng aren't doing anything for PEN and have no place in the discussion whether you're baited or not.

Grant


----------



## TabJockey

Well written Grant. There is usually one HangSeng in every penny stock thread but I have never seen one as virulent as here in the PEN thread. Half of the last 20 pages is just HS ramping the stock and prattling on about how good of an investor he is.


----------



## albaby

great post grant,your conclusion says it all,and should have made by the admin,
ps welcome al


----------



## Joe Blow

I think it's time that the baiting of other thread participants stops and the focus of the thread returns to the topic at hand, Peninsula Energy (PEN).

Things are getting far too personal, tensions are running high and there is too much discussion of matters that do not directly relate to the company.

So please, lets refocus the discussion on PEN and leave personalities out of it.


----------



## gnealson

Joe Blow said:


> I think it's time that the baiting of other thread participants stops and the focus of the thread returns to the topic at hand, Peninsula Energy (PEN).
> 
> Things are getting far too personal, tensions are running high and there is too much discussion of matters that do not directly relate to the company.
> 
> So please, lets refocus the discussion on PEN and leave personalities out of it.




Agreed Joe, but what we need is enforcement.  I would love to see an end to all discussion of hangseng (good or bad) and I hope you'll respond appropriately to moderation requests because there's a pattern over 3+ years of these warnings being ignored and frustrations building up again and again with those who refuse to stick to the topic.

Where the grey area seems to be is when a post contains facts as well as bluster and personal attacks.  I hope that in future the presence of any bluster and any personal attacks is enough to have the post removed and, on repeat offences, the poster suspended.

Kind Regards

Grant


----------



## Joe Blow

gnealson said:


> Agreed Joe, but what we need is enforcement.  I would love to see an end to all discussion of hangseng (good or bad) and I hope you'll respond appropriately to moderation requests because there's a pattern over 3+ years of these warnings being ignored and frustrations building up again and again with those who refuse to stick to the topic.
> 
> Where the grey area seems to be is when a post contains facts as well as bluster and personal attacks.  I hope that in future the presence of any bluster and any personal attacks is enough to have the post removed and, on repeat offences, the poster suspended.




I'm determined to get this thread back on track and ensure that we return to a constructive discussion about PEN, which is what I'm sure we all want.

From this point forward any off topic posts will be removed and any personal attacks will be met with infractions. It's time to get this thread back on topic and the focus back on PEN.

There's a lot of intelligent and constructive debate in this thread and it's a shame to see the discussion get sidetracked with baiting and personal attacks.


----------



## Miner

Joe Blow said:


> I'm determined to get this thread back on track and ensure that we return to a constructive discussion about PEN, which is what I'm sure we all want.
> 
> From this point forward any off topic posts will be removed and any personal attacks will be met with infractions. It's time to get this thread back on topic and the focus back on PEN.
> 
> There's a lot of intelligent and constructive debate in this thread and it's a shame to see the discussion get sidetracked with baiting and personal attacks.




Thanks Joe
Long awaited intervention. 
This is what called good mod which makes ASF distinctly different from HC.


----------



## hangseng

Point taken Joe and I take my share of the blame accordingly. The last few weeks have tested my mettle, however I remained focussed and determined to ensure facts only were posted. This has gone astray since the Tsunami unfortunately.

Regardless, my apologies to all posters.


----------



## gnealson

CURRENT SITUATION

So back to facts.  It's undeniable that PEN is in a downward trend (until we break the downward trend line) and after the initial sharp drop and a sharp relief rally, the price appears to be fading again but more gradually this time.  At the moment a pessimist might describe the chart as a dead cat bounce and an optimist might say that we're about to form a higher low, then move onwards and upward.  In order to make predictions about the future, we need to attempt to understand the present happenings.  So my first question is to ask:

CAN THE TECHNICALS BE RECONCILED WITH THE FUNDAMENTALS?

Referring to the most recent RCR broker report, post Fukushima, PEN is valued at:

* Optimistically (0.80 USD/AUD, $50-70USD/lb): 7.5 - 10.6 cents AUD fully diluted

* Pessimistically (1.05 USD/AUD, $50-70USD/lb): 5.7 - 8.1 cents AUD fully diluted

Note: these ranges do not take into account $40 million of financing PEN requires.  RCR provides lower ranges still and even if PEN does secure an offtake agreement it'll still impact the bottom line.

So looking at those ranges, today's close of 8.6 cents falls within the bounds of the optimistic range and close to the top of the pessimistic range.  The only thing we might have difficulty explaining is why PEN was trading so far above these NPV ranges in late February.

SO HOW DO WE EXPLAIN PEN AT 15 CENTS?

Given the above NPV ranges, my view is that PEN at above 15 cents wasn't justified fundamentally at any time this year using any Uranium price and Exchange rate we saw.  It's my view that the peak was caused largely by a rush into the stock all at once due to positive newsflow and bullish market conditions.  Now, in the same way that everyone rushing into the stock caused a rise well beyond rational valuation, I believe we could see sustained downward pressure and possibly a drop below rational valuation for a period.

CONCLUSION

PEN has what I believe is a sound business plan, operates in a safe jurisdiction, has excellent prospects of securing more sales contracts and I don't see any reason to believe the Nuclear Renaissance is finished for good.  The share price will hopefully get a boost from the DFS and also from further positive news at Karoo.  

However, it's hard for me to imagine sentiment shifting suddenly to the upside or the pending DFS/Karoo news adding more than 1-2 cents to the NPV so it seems to me that PEN is probably close to fair value if you think there's no overhang of scrip and possibly a little over value if you think that those who bought in the 10-15 cent range are going to continue to write off their losses as we approach June 30.  

Since the price seems to be more sensitive to fluctuations in the Uranium market and fluctuations in the exchange rate, these are main things I'll be focussing on to provide signals to get back in seriously.

Constructive alternate views welcomed.


----------



## svengali

Joe Blow said:


> I think it's time that the baiting of other thread participants stops and the focus of the thread returns to the topic at hand, Peninsula Energy (PEN).
> 
> Things are getting far too personal, tensions are running high and there is too much discussion of matters that do not directly relate to the company.
> 
> So please, lets refocus the discussion on PEN and leave personalities out of it.






In this refocusing and in the spirit of a fresh start I think it is worth noting today an announcement I regard as a large positive and reinforcing where this company is going

The top 20 shareholders for the end of March was announced and it was a revelation, none of the largest institutional shareholders holdings had changed !!!!

 This was after Gus Simpson told me on the Monday after the tsumani that "the three largest shareholders had told him he had access to as much as he needed to protect the companies register"

As it looks, as it turned out, Gus didn't need to spend a buck, with over 1.5 billion shares traded it turns out it was just one big churn, the major winners would appear to be the stockbrokers and sharetrading sites. It was very possible that no more than 300 million shares went around and around, down to sub six cents and back up to the nines again. Of course the tsunami and damage to the Japanese power station knocked the Uranium shares worldwide, without this catastrophe it is not inconceivable the price would be 16 to 18 cents by now. But facts are facts, and the market will reset. ( I think it is a real eye opener the way the Japanese situation dropped from the media when they had other more dramatic tv grabs in Libya) 

But I digress, furthermore as announced by another poster, Gus said, (to this poster), in regards to the timetable towards production, "nothing has changed"

All sensible shareholders must be as heartened as I, here is an MD who has delivered, and as we head down to the projected start up next year, think where the company and its shareprice will be. We'll be in production, earning, paying off the set up costs, enlarging our reserves, these factors are a given

Remember we are a "yellowcake" producer, not a nuclear power provider, and yellowcake is going to be in a critical position of supply shortage. We are initially in a politically stable country, the USA, and they urgently need what we produce. Without sounding mawkish, if you had to write a script for an emerging producer I can't think of a better scenario than the one PEN is acting out


----------



## Purd2

Excellent post svengali. 

By the way...to other people on this thread..I do not want to be a "trader". I do want to "invest". Time will prove me right or wrong but at the moment I could not be happier with my investment in PEN. Everyone has circumstances that make their decisions in any area of life different to another. My situation makes accumulating and "investing " in PEN right for ME!!!!!


----------



## explod

svengali said:


> Without sounding mawkish, if you had to write a script for an emerging producer I can't think of a better scenario than the one PEN is acting out




Because Joe became involved I noticed this thead on the pages this morning so thought I would have a littlelookin.

And looking at the five year monthly chart it is plain to see that the collapse is all about the failure of the Japanese reactors.   This in my view is going to change sentiment for many years to come.  And *sentiment* does not follow common sense, it runs on fear, exitement or greed.

I can think of dozens of stocks looking better than this now at this time and would suggest for some time to come.

e.g., coal is going to be very big again now (if it was not already) and there are very many others exciting areas for investment.

A mistake some have made on here is that they have fallen in love with the idea.  Step back, take a few deep breaths and say, what else?

The volume of the last month was more than 100% greater than for any other month since 2006.   Having said that there have in that time been some other very volotile periods which says to me PEN is prone to difficulties.  And we know that has been the case with uranium.  At this stage general attitudes cannot be guaged for sure in the long term so PEN may continue to have a tough road for a long time.

So what is there to create a fuss about?


----------



## jasejdv3

Nice post svengali 

Its good to see some balanced and well thought out dicussions about PEN's future on these forums. I certainly agree there is going supply issues into the future, the business its 'PEN' hasnt changed one bit.

Further, Utility deals will happen espeically with the expansion  globally of Nuclear power and especially if we are trying to reduce Co2 emissions. I see the Nuclear industry will continue to have a bright future and it might take PEN abit longer to get to the SP levels of the recent months, but there is plenty of news on the horizon and PEN's operating costs are allot lower then other near term producers . I see PEN will continue to Deliver( it will just come down to whether you are a ST or LT holder).


----------



## skyQuake

svengali said:


> This was after Gus Simpson told me on the Monday after the tsumani that "the three largest shareholders had told him he had access to as much as he needed to protect the companies register"




What do you mean by that?


----------



## gnealson

svengali said:


> The top 20 shareholders for the end of March was announced and it was a revelation, none of the largest institutional shareholders holdings had changed !!!!




Yes it's good that the big boys didn't panic, and there's two main conclusions you can draw from that fact:

1) They didn't sell because they believe that unquestionably PEN has a bright future.

2) They didn't sell because they wanted to wait for a better pricing conditions and more clarity on the impact to sentiment, and as clarity is achieved and the price stabilises, reality will set in and decisions to hold or get out will be made.

It'll be interesting to see how much the top 20 has changed in 3-6 months.



svengali said:


> This was after Gus Simpson told me on the Monday after the tsumani that "the three largest shareholders had told him he had access to as much as he needed to protect the companies register"




Unverifiable and unsubstantiated.  Probably a TOS violation.



svengali said:


> But I digress, furthermore as announced by another poster, Gus said, (to this poster), in regards to the timetable towards production, "nothing has changed"




Unverifiable and unsubstantiated.  Probably a TOS violation.



svengali said:


> All sensible shareholders must be as heartened as I, here is an MD who has delivered, and as we head down to the projected start up next year, think where the company and its shareprice will be. We'll be in production, earning, paying off the set up costs, enlarging our reserves, these factors are a given




According to RCR the share price will be between 5 - 10 cents approximately.  Is that what you meant?



svengali said:


> Remember we are a "yellowcake" producer, not a nuclear power provider, and yellowcake is going to be in a critical position of supply shortage.




True, but surely you recognise that there's a link between nuclear power providers and uranium producers?  If there's fewer nuclear power providers producing less electricity then there will be less demand for uranium, less of a shortage and lower prices for uranium producers like PEN.  If sentiment remains poor we'll suffer a weakened negotiating position for sales contracts and the sales contracts will be executed at reduced prices resulting in lower profit margins.  Basic supply and demand.

Grant


----------



## Purd2

I was with svengali when he spoke with Gus Simpson and I can verify what svengali has posted. If you look at HC posts I posted exactly that Gus told me too that "nothing has changed". It would do some of you good to call the company and speak to Gus Simpson. The day I refer to,  svengali's call dropped out and we chatted about the call and to our surprise Gus called svengali back. It was after that, that I had a chat to him as well. No lies here gents, you can speculate all you like but that is the truth.


----------



## gnealson

Purd2 said:


> I was with svengali when he spoke with Gus Simpson and I can verify what svengali has posted. If you look at HC posts I posted exactly that Gus told me too that "nothing has changed". It would do some of you good to call the company and speak to Gus Simpson. The day I refer to,  svengali's call dropped out and we chatted about the call and to our surprise Gus called svengali back. It was after that, that I had a chat to him as well. No lies here gents, you can speculate all you like but that is the truth.




It's unsubstantiated and unverifiable no matter how many internet personas 'verify' it.

Besides, stressing that the timetable hasn't changed seems pretty trite considering that:

* The share price has changed for the worse by over 40%.
* Sentiment towards nuclear power has changed for the worse.
* The spot and term prices for Uranium have changed for the worse.
* The number of reactors planned to be constructed has changed for the worse.
* The number of reactors under review for safety concerns has changed for the worse.

What exactly was the point of stressing that the timetable hasn't changed?  Maybe Gus' socks haven't changed either, it doesn't mean anything much considering everything that has changed.

No one is arguing that PEN will fail to produce Uranium, that's not controversial at all.  What is controversial and worthy of discussion for those who profess to be interested in fundamental analysis is the present value of PEN considering all that has changed so recently!

Eagerly anticipating some serious discussion of fundamentals from those who profess to be rational and sensible investors.

Grant


----------



## Boggo

gnealson said:


> * The share price has changed for the worse by over 40%.
> 
> Grant




Exactly, that is where the rubber hits the road...

(click to expand)


----------



## Joe Blow

Purd2 said:


> I was with svengali when he spoke with Gus Simpson and I can verify what svengali has posted. If you look at HC posts I posted exactly that Gus told me too that "nothing has changed". It would do some of you good to call the company and speak to Gus Simpson. The day I refer to,  svengali's call dropped out and we chatted about the call and to our surprise Gus called svengali back. It was after that, that I had a chat to him as well. No lies here gents, you can speculate all you like but that is the truth.




As has been pointed out, telephone conversations with those in management are unverifiable. Had I caught this earlier I probably would have removed it, but it has now been quoted and commented on so I have decided to leave it.

However, I ask that it not be mentioned again in this thread until such time as you are able to provide written confirmation in the form of an email from Mr. Simpson. Please note that any posted email would have to be from Mr. Simpson's company email address (email headers would need to be posted) and he would need to give permission in the email for it to be reproduced in public.

Let stay on topic and stick to the facts please folks.


----------



## svengali

skyQuake said:


> What do you mean by that?




Exactly what it said


----------



## svengali

gnealson said:


> Yes it's good that the big boys didn't panic, and there's two main conclusions you can draw from that fact:
> 
> 1) They didn't sell because they believe that unquestionably PEN has a bright future.
> 
> 2) They didn't sell because they wanted to wait for a better pricing conditions and more clarity on the impact to sentiment, and as clarity is achieved and the price stabilises, reality will set in and decisions to hold or get out will be made.
> 
> It'll be interesting to see how much the top 20 has changed in 3-6 months.
> 
> I think your just enunciating the bleeding obvious, running through the obvious, so everyone can take their pick
> 
> 
> 
> Unverifiable and unsubstantiated.  Probably a TOS violation.
> 
> There was a witness, but if anyone doesn't want to believe what was said then that is their right but they'll be missing the point made
> 
> 
> 
> Unverifiable and unsubstantiated.  Probably a TOS violation.
> 
> Same as above
> 
> 
> 
> According to RCR the share price will be between 5 - 10 cents approximately.  Is that what you meant?
> 
> 
> You are perfectly allowed to take whatever prognostication you like as to future prices, if you think it is to fall in the bracket you quote, it is probably best to get out now
> 
> 
> 
> 
> True, but surely you recognise that there's a link between nuclear power providers and uranium producers?  If there's fewer nuclear power providers producing less electricity then there will be less demand for uranium, less of a shortage and lower prices for uranium producers like PEN.  If sentiment remains poor we'll suffer a weakened negotiating position for sales contracts and the sales contracts will be executed at reduced prices resulting in lower profit margins.  Basic supply and demand.
> 
> Grant




Once again you outline the obvious and that's fair enough, but it is delusional to think that the shortage of yellowcake that is undoubtedly going to occur over the next five or six will not keep the price up, the first principal of trade pricing is supply and demand. There are far more sites under construction, or in planning than are being closed down
As you said earlier we will see in six to twenty four months what is going to happen
The whole point of the stock exchanges is ascertain what is going to happen in the future, goodness knows that very few companies actually make money for dividend distribution, and the investors are in to be in a company that does pay a dividend, then they leave the speculatory and are valued by P/E ratios and actual cash dividend, that's where PEN is headed, those who think this will invest


----------



## svengali

Joe Blow said:


> As has been pointed out, telephone conversations with those in management are unverifiable. Had I caught this earlier I probably would have removed it, but it has now been quoted and commented on so I have decided to leave it.
> 
> However, I ask that it not be mentioned again in this thread until such time as you are able to provide written confirmation in the form of an email from Mr. Simpson. Please note that any posted email would have to be from Mr. Simpson's company email address (email headers would need to be posted) and he would need to give permission in the email for it to be reproduced in public.
> 
> Let stay on topic and stick to the facts please folks.






Understand your position now Joe, was interesting to Purd and I all the same
Let me just say that I have great faith in the PEN board who over a long time have delivered on their promises, and this trait is not so common out there let me say


----------



## gnealson

svengali said:


> I think your just enunciating the bleeding obvious, running through the obvious, so everyone can take their pick.




Your page on the topic didn't cover 2, just 1.  And 2 is particularly relevant considering the happenings on HC where a long time loyal and reportedly large holder (Pewal) is declaring that one third of the volume yesterday went through his account!

I'm not suggesting you hold this view, but it's naive to think that large holders will dump their holdings onto the market at any time.  Large enough holders generally wait for strength to sell into.  So in my opinion, the true test of the top 20 is in play now, not a month ago.  We're seeing the price tip over again.  Is it technical action only, or is it because of the actions of larger holders like Pewal?



svengali said:


> Once again you outline the obvious and that's fair enough, but it is delusional to think that the shortage of yellowcake that is undoubtedly going to occur over the next five or six will not keep the price up,




I feel it's my duty to outline the obvious when the obvious is that the future is uncertain and someone is posting as if it's certain.  For instance, your use of the word undoubtedly above is over-confident in my opinion.  There's a lot of doubt at the moment and as I showed previously, it's pretty rational to be doubting right now because of everything that has changed for the worse.



svengali said:


> the first principal of trade pricing is supply and demand.  There are far more sites under construction, or in planning than are being closed down




True, so far, but misses the point.  Before Fukushima there were much more optimistic expectations for the ramp of nuclear generating capacity.  The glut of new Uranium explorers and producers were all anticipating a greater level of Nuclear plant building and Uranium consumption than now seems likely in the previous timeframe.  At this stage all we can say is that it seems many plants on the drawing board could be delayed.

As you say, the first principal of trade pricing is supply and demand, and forecast demand after Fukushima is less than forecast demand before Fukushima, and we haven't seen the political impact fully play out yet.  You can bet that many Uranium producers didn't factor a Fukushima event into their plans, so en masse, the Uranium industry was gearing up to supply a greater amount of Uranium into the future than we now might end up needing.

So it seems that instead of talking of 'undoubted' shortages, you should be doubting at least a little bit and adjusting your views on the looming shortage to reflect new information.  As a wise person once said: 'When the facts change, I change my mind'.

Grant


----------



## richy66

gnealson wrote:

it's naive to think that large holders will dump their holdings onto the market at any time.  Large enough holders generally wait for strength to sell into.  So in my opinion, the true test of the top 20 is in play now, not a month ago.  We're seeing the price tip over again.  Is it technical action only, or is it because of the actions of larger holders like Pewal?

So my question is: Why would the large holders not get out when the price did return to 12c. Seeing as that would have been selling into strength.


----------



## gnealson

richy66 said:


> gnealson wrote:
> 
> it's naive to think that large holders will dump their holdings onto the market at any time.  Large enough holders generally wait for strength to sell into.  So in my opinion, the true test of the top 20 is in play now, not a month ago.  We're seeing the price tip over again.  Is it technical action only, or is it because of the actions of larger holders like Pewal?
> 
> So my question is: Why would the large holders not get out when the price did return to 12c. Seeing as that would have been selling into strength.




I already answered this.  See point 2 in my original response to Svengali.  To repeat myself... I believe larger players are waiting for more clarity on sentiment shifts towards Nuclear energy.  When you've got a big stake you can't jump into and out of the stock easily and it doesn't pay to make rash moves.  Most have been on the register for a while, so even at 8 cents it wouldn't be a loss for them.  So the fact that they haven't left yet means very little one way or the other.

Sticking to what's factual:

1) The share price had already declined to 12-12.5 cents before Fukushima.  If Pewal is to be believed, he viewed PEN as over-bought at 15 cents and was selling even then.

2) After PEN fell to 5.5 cents and recovered to 12 cents, it has been sold down heavily since then by someone other than the top 20 I guess (the top 21-100 holders?).

One thing we can say is that the stock is so far being sold down since Fukushima and the chart looks fairly weak right now.  Surely we should be observing what is actually happening and trying to understand and explain it, rather than ignoring what is actually happening and focussing on things that haven't changed.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

For those who don't know, the facts have changed again today.  Fukushima declared as bad or worse than Chernobyl by authorites:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/strong-earthquake-hits-japan-rocks-tokyo/story-e6frg6so-1226037789064

Anyone wondering about what a 'terabecquerel' is, whether it can be converted to a sievert, and on what basis the authorities are now being forced to upgrade the severity of the Fukushima incident to the maximum, you may find this blog page interesting:

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/04/japan-considers-raising-nuclear.html

Key extract:



> [A] study was conducted by a team of experts from Kyoto University and Hiroshima University ... *found cesium-137 at levels between about 590,000 and 2.19 million becquerels per cubic meter [outside the 30 kilometer evacuation zone]*.
> 
> *After the Chernobyl nuclear accident in the former Soviet Union in 1986, residents who lived in areas where cesium-137 levels exceeded 555,000 becquerels were forced to move elsewhere.*
> 
> ***
> 
> The amounts of cesium-137 found in Iitate were at most four times the figure from Chernobyl.
> 
> If more radioactive materials are emitted from the crippled Fukushima plant, the level of cesium-137 could rise even further.




I see this as pretty significant news.  Chernobyl is the benchmark for Nuclear Disaster and it has now been equaled and probably exceeded with a plant that was supposedly leaps and bounds ahead of Chernobyl in terms of safety.  I think this will weigh heavily on public perception of the incident as well as political actions for a long time to come.

Grant


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Worth a read for all Uranium buffs.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4240
> 
> These events are going to have governments very keen to develop safe and stable nuclear power.
> The technologies is already available---watch the Vid.




Grant

Have you looked into this?

They have the technology and you may find yellow cake becomes as valuable as a Lamington---yeh I know an exaggeration.


----------



## hangseng

gnealson said:


> For those who don't know, the facts have changed again today.  Fukushima declared as bad or worse than Chernobyl by authorites:
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/strong-earthquake-hits-japan-rocks-tokyo/story-e6frg6so-1226037789064
> 
> Anyone wondering about what a 'terabecquerel' is, whether it can be converted to a sievert, and on what basis the authorities are now being forced to upgrade the severity of the Fukushima incident to the maximum, you may find this blog page interesting:
> 
> http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/04/japan-considers-raising-nuclear.html
> 
> Key extract:
> 
> I see this as pretty significant news. _Chernobyl is the benchmark for Nuclear Disaster and it has now been equaled and probably exceeded with a plant that was supposedly leaps and bounds ahead of Chernobyl in terms of safety_. I think this will weigh heavily on public perception of the incident as well as political actions for a long time to come.
> 
> Grant





You are on your own with that highly subjective view Grant.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/12/3189175.htm?site=melbourne



> "This is a preliminary assessment and is subject to finalisation by the International Atomic Energy Agency," Japan's nuclear safety watchdog said on Tuesday.
> 
> "In terms of volume of radioactive materials released, our estimate shows it is about 10 per cent of what was released by Chernobyl."
> 
> The meltdown at Chernobyl, the world's worst peacetime nuclear event, in the then-Soviet Union spewed forth a large volume of toxic radiation, poisoning large areas of land and affecting thousands of lives.
> 
> *Nuclear industry specialist Murray Jennex, an associate professor at San Diego State University in California, dismissed the comparison with Fukushima.
> 
> "It's nowhere near that level. Chernobyl was terrible - it blew and they had no containment, and they were stuck," he said.*"[Japan's] containment has been holding. The only thing that hasn't is the fuel pool that caught fire."




Clearly Fukishima isn't anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl, that is sensationalistic journalism at best.

I also find it intriguing why you and so many others both here and afar select the PEN threads to post the sensationalist general information. I have 27 uranium stocks on my watchlist and yeas there are more. However you and so mnay others single out PEN to post this and similar general articles, I wonder why if I may ask? 

You seemingly have very strong views on this, attempting to counter any positive that PEN has in favour (and PEN has many positives) for a vastly negative and subjective outlook. 

But why only PEN?


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Grant
> 
> Have you looked into this?
> 
> They have the technology and you may find yellow cake becomes as valuable as a Lamington---yeh I know an exaggeration.




A vast exaggeration tech/a...

The best post in that whole thread is right here IMO, from one of ASF's best posters.

Originally Posted by prawn_86  
Post13th-December-2009 07:21 PM 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4240&page=3


----------



## burglar

tech/a said:


> ... yellow cake becomes as valuable as a Lamington---yeh I know an exaggeration.




A talking duck ... with a Good Sense of Humour!


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> You are on your own with that highly subjective view Grant.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/12/3189175.htm?site=melbourne
> 
> 
> 
> Clearly Fukishima isn't anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl, that is sensationalistic journalism at best.




Finally, some factual debate of fundamentals!  Yes, agreed, at this point in time, it appears that overall Fukushima has not exceeded Chernobyl in severity.  Thanks for pointing it out.

Still, the jury is not out yet and there's a well established pattern with events like these.  Everything is done to cover up and manage the public perception of the incident but gradually over time things often get worse.  Take the BP oil spill for a recent example, or Fukushima itself with the Japanese authorities consistently downplaying the severity.



hangseng said:


> I also find it intriguing why you and so many others both here and afar select the PEN threads to post the sensationalist general information. I have 27 uranium stocks on my watchlist and yeas there are more. However you and so mnay others single out PEN to post this and similar general articles, I wonder why if I may ask?




Are you sure you're being objective?



hangseng said:


> You seemingly have very strong views on this, attempting to counter any positive that PEN has in favour (and PEN has many positives) for a vastly negative and subjective outlook.




Why not discuss my views instead of me like you promised only yesterday?  

Subjective is a weasel word for 'incorrect'.  This is a discussion forum.   Instead of just implying my views are incorrect and leaving it at that, why not demonstrate it through discussion?  For instance, do you think what I wrote about the RCR valuation of PEN being 5.5-10.5 cents was incorrect?  Do you agree that the market got ahead of itself when PEN rose above 11 cents?  What's your current valuation of PEN?  How much do you expect the DFS announcement to impact the NPV (your best case/worst case estimates)?

Grant


----------



## SevenFX

hangseng said:


> Clearly Fukishima isn't anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl, that is sensationalistic journalism at best.




Quote "TOKYO (MarketWatch) ”” Japanese nuclear-safety authorities Tuesday raised their 
assessment of the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant to the same level 
as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-upgrades-nuclear-crisis-to-chernobyl-rank-2011-04-11


----------



## skyQuake

> Bloomberg
> (Updates with comment from Tepco in third paragraph.)
> 
> By Yuji Okada and Aaron Sheldrick
> April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japan raised the severity rating of
> its nuclear crisis to the highest, matching the 1986 Chernobyl
> disaster, after increasing radiation prompted the government to
> widen the evacuation zone and aftershocks rocked the country.
> Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency today raised
> the rating to 7. The accident at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi station
> was previously rated 5 on the global scale, the same as the 1979
> partial reactor meltdown at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.
> The stricken nuclear plant, located about 220 kilometers
> (135 miles) north of Tokyo, is leaking radiation in Japan’s
> worst civilian nuclear disaster after a magnitude-9 quake and
> tsunami on March 11. Tokyo Electric Power Co. said its plant,
> which has withstood hundreds of aftershocks, may spew more
> radiation than Chernobyl before the crisis is contained.
> “The radiation leaks haven’t stopped,” Junichi Matsumoto,
> general manager of the utility’s nuclear power and plant fitting
> division, said in Tokyo today. “If the leaks continue, the
> total radiation from the reactors may exceed” that from
> Chernobyl.
> The radiation released so far from the Fukushima accident
> is estimated to be around 10 percent of that from Chernobyl,
> Japan’s nuclear safety agency said earlier.
> Today’s rating change won’t lead to a further widening of
> the evacuation zone beyond the increase announced yesterday,
> Kenkichi Hirose, an adviser to Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s
> cabinet, said at the nuclear agency’s news conference.
> 
> Evacuation Zone
> 
> Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said yesterday that
> residents of some towns beyond the 20-kilometer evacuation zone
> around the plant will have a month to move to safer areas.
> “In contrast with Chernobyl, we have been able to avoid
> direct health risks,” Edano said at a public event in Tokyo
> today. “The assessment level of 7 may be the same, but in terms
> of its shape and contents, the process has been different."
> The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale
> rates nuclear accidents in terms of their effects on health and
> the environment, according to the International Atomic Energy
> Agency, which helped set up the system. Each of its seven steps
> represents a ten times increase in the severity of the incident
> or accident, according to the INES factsheet.
> Levels 1 through 3 are classified as incidents and those
> from 4 to 7 are defined as accidents. Level 7 means there has
> been a ‘‘major release of radioactive material with widespread
> health and environmental effects requiring implementation of
> planned and extended countermeasures,’’ the factsheet says.
> 
> ‘Beginning to Wake Up’
> 
> The government ‘‘is at last beginning to wake up to the
> reality of the scale of the disaster,’’ said Philip White,
> International Liaison Officer at the Citizens’ Nuclear
> Information Center, a Tokyo-based group opposed to atomic
> energy. ‘‘Its belated move to evacuate people from a larger area
> around the nuclear plant, likewise, is a recognition that the
> impact on public health is potentially much greater than it
> first acknowledged.’’
> The level 7 assessment is based on the combined severity of
> the situation at reactor Nos. 1, 2 and 3.,Hidehiko Nishiyama,
> deputy director-general of the nuclear safety agency, said
> today.
> ‘‘Most radioactive substances detected around the plants
> were probably released from explosions that happened at the
> early stages of the crisis,’’ Kazuhiko Kudo, research professor
> of nuclear engineering at Kyushu University, said before the
> announcement.




Doesnt seem sensationalist to me.

Not as bad as Chernobyl in terms of health risk or radioactive materials emitted though, but still bad enough for a (low) 7


----------



## hangseng

SevenFX said:


> Quote "TOKYO (MarketWatch) ”” Japanese nuclear-safety authorities Tuesday raised their
> assessment of the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant to the same level
> as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster."
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-upgrades-nuclear-crisis-to-chernobyl-rank-2011-04-11




Tekman that is purely a reportable level, it isn't a direct comparison with Chernobyl and so far is far from it. Suggesting otherwise at this point is nonsense.

gnealson, "subjective" is a term often used in risk analysis mening to be an individuals viewpoint and bases of views not facts. Extrapolating factual events into a subjective view doesn't make those views factual. An aspect as a facilitator I take people to task on often. It wasn't meant to be derogatory, nor was that my intent.

My question as to why you and others post this information on the PEN threads only was genuine and one I truly find intriguing. Not having a go at you I am just genuinely asking why is it that you find it necessary (your "duty" even as yiou termed it) to post this her and not on any other uranium stock? 

This will be interesting how this all pans out with PEN as to who was correct and who wasn't and laso what information was relevant and wasn't. From an investment and trading perspective I can see PEN will offer a lot in the way of learnings for all. As will the Japan events.

One thing is for certain, this was an event caused by an earthquake of massive magnitude and a Tsunami causing unprecedented damage and loss of life from an event like this. It wasn't a plant or design failure, nor operator error, nor violation of safety regulations. It was an unprecedented event that knocked out power (and subsequently flow of pumped cooling water) and all other services from an entire city, not just the nuclear power plant. 

Will the Japanese and all other countries around the globe now move away from idyllic coastal living, or move out of high rise apartments and office blocks from fear of anther similar event such as this. Simple answer is no they won't, logic will prevail as usual.

Like Three Mile Island, the catastrophic accident at Chernobyl was caused by gross violations of operating rules and regulations. The three events simply cannot be compared,as much as people try they simply cannot be aligned based on the hiistoric facts.

Me like many others far more knowledgable than me, believe that sentiment will once again change based on facts. The main fact that nuclear energy is here to stay.

PEN will be well situated to take advantage accordingly.


----------



## mickqld

hangseng said:


> Clearly Fukishima isn't anywhere near as bad as Chernobyl, that is sensationalistic journalism at best.
> 
> I also find it intriguing why you and so many others both here and afar select the PEN threads to post the sensationalist general information. I have 27 uranium stocks on my watchlist and yeas there are more. However you and so mnay others single out PEN to post this and similar general articles, I wonder why if I may ask?
> 
> You seemingly have very strong views on this, attempting to counter any positive that PEN has in favour (and PEN has many positives) for a vastly negative and subjective outlook.
> 
> But why only PEN?




At the end of the day Hang we will probably be very thankful that all the scaremongering and hysterical posts about nuclear holocaust were put on the PEN threads both here and elsewhere. It has shaken out all the weak hands and put more and more shares into fewer stronger hands. It will just mean when the inevitable rises happen they will be much much higher for low cost ISR producers like PEN who will survive better during lower U prices than high cost conventional miners.


----------



## srood

I find it interesting how the general concensus is so ready to compare the current situation so tightly with previous events ie 3 mile and Chernobyl with regards to the fall out for the nuclear renaissance. Mid 70s and the mid 80s. Think about it, would we be sitting hear conversing over facts on either of the previous occasions? The world is a completely different world to those era's. We are now given a tyraid of fact and fiction that is the free media on every little event. In 2011, even at the minute I can find out first hand what has occurred in Japan in a key stroke. Remember fear is in the unknown. The unknown after prevoius events lasted for years, with the web so entrenched I strongly doubt whether the same duration of inuendo and misinformation will endure.

I believe Pen will survive to take advantage of the rebound:
1. Its low cost.
2. Management has a proven track record.
3. It has Major shareholders whom appear to be hanging around.
4. Its second project, Karroo has only begun to scrap the surface.
5. Acquisition?


----------



## nulla nulla

Fact 1: Fukishima is not the only Nuclear Power Station in the world;
Fact 2: There are hundreds more Nuclear Power stations in the planning stages for China, India and the rest of the world;
Fact 3: The demand for Yellow Cake is not going to evaporate any time soon.

If PEN can produce yellowcake, they will have a market. If they can sell it for a profit then PEN will be arround for a long time to come regardless of where they started out and what they did in the past. If they found uranium on their leases instead of gold and had the kudos' to mine it in the face of a lot of political opposition in the past, good on them.

Get over it, move on, cut the bulldust. If you like uranium stocks buy PEN, trade PEN and post your comments on the PEN thread. If you don't like uranium stocks, don't waste your time posting on the PEN thread. 

Personally If there is a trade opportunity with PEN and I see it, I will take it. It owes me nothing, I owe it nothing and all the other crap is just background noise. Also all the crap about protecting newbies is just that...crap. There is a well worn expression on the ASF site, it is DYOR. Do Your Own Research.


----------



## barney

nulla nulla said:


> Fact 1: Fukishima is not the only Nuclear Power Station in the world;
> Fact 2: There are hundreds more Nuclear Power stations in the planning stages for China, India and the rest of the world;
> Fact 3: The demand for Yellow Cake is not going to evaporate any time soon.
> 
> If PEN can produce yellowcake, they will have a market. If they can sell it for a profit then PEN will be arround for a long time to come regardless of where they started out and what they did in the past. If they found uranium on their leases instead of gold and had the kudos' to mine it in the face of a lot of political opposition in the past, good on them.
> 
> Get over it, move on, cut the bulldust. If you like uranium stocks buy PEN, trade PEN and post your comments on the PEN thread. If you don't like uranium stocks, don't waste your time posting on the PEN thread.
> 
> Personally If there is a trade opportunity with PEN and I see it, I will take it. It owes me nothing, I owe it nothing and all the other crap is just background noise. Also all the crap about protecting newbies is just that...crap. There is a well worn expression on the ASF site, it is DYOR. Do Your Own Research.




Thumbs up from me Nulla Nulla .... succinctly put ..... nothing more to add ... well done


----------



## laurie

barney said:


> Thumbs up from me Nulla Nulla .... succinctly put ..... nothing more to add ... well done




+1 if you cannot stand the heat in the kitchen then get out


----------



## yarrabah

Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and now Fukushima have all put uranium sentiment on hold. With the first two, for an extended period of time. Fukushima may or may not reverberate negatively for such a period. But as a PEN holder the question for me is when to buy in the risk/reward equation. Parking money in uranium now may not be best use at this point in time.


----------



## burglar

yarrabah said:


> ... Parking money in uranium now may not be best use at this point in time.




Hi yarrabah,

Someone gets the real point! Hurray!!


----------



## gnealson

Lots of platitudes tonight.  Still no debate on the current value of PEN.

I take it we all agree that the 5.5 - 10.7 cent range is fair value then, and that we should only expect the upper end of that range if both the AUD/USD rate falls to 0.80 and the spot/term price rises to $70 USD/lb.

Grant


----------



## nulla nulla

gnealson said:


> Lots of platitudes tonight.  Still no debate on the current value of PEN.
> 
> I take it we all agree that the 5.5 - 10.7 cent range is fair value then, and that we should only expect the upper end of that range if both the AUD/USD rate falls to 0.80 and the spot/term price rises to $70 USD/lb.
> 
> Grant




Definition of Platitude: A platitude is a trite, meaningless, biased, or prosaic statement, often presented as if it were significant and original.

I take umbrage at your post. 

I find it offensive. It is in itself a platitude and offers nothing constructive to the determination of dealing with PEN as a short term or long term investor/trader. 

I note that you only joined the ASF in April 2011 and have contributed little, other than deride the position/perspective of other longer term members of the ASF. IMO you would do well to observe and learn until you have have something constructive to contribute.


----------



## gnealson

nulla nulla said:


> Definition of Platitude: A platitude is a trite, meaningless, biased, or prosaic statement, often presented as if it were significant and original.
> 
> I take umbrage at your post.
> 
> I find it offensive. It is in itself a platitude and offers nothing constructive to the determination of dealing with PEN as a short term or long term investor/trader.
> 
> I note that you only joined the ASF in April 2011 and have contributed little, other than deride the position/perspective of other longer term members of the ASF. IMO you would do well to observe and learn until you have have something constructive to contribute.




Still nothing of substance on the fundamentals of PEN, and now quickly shifting to personal attacks.

Grant


----------



## skc

gnealson said:


> Lots of platitudes tonight.  Still no debate on the current value of PEN.
> 
> I take it we all agree that the 5.5 - 10.7 cent range is fair value then, and that we should only expect the upper end of that range if both the AUD/USD rate falls to 0.80 and the spot/term price rises to $70 USD/lb.
> 
> Grant




Yes all the talk about the nuclear industry is important but you can't make a call unless you do a valuation. 

There are three main variables to PEN's price. 

1. uranium price
2. aud/usd exchange rate
3. amount of resources in the ground

Speculating on 1 in view of recent events is probably fair enough, although hard to quantify. Speculating on 2 using PEN as an vehicle is plain silly. The only other reason for bullish stance on PEN would be if one sees substantial upside in the resource estimates. If the investor holds that view then I suppose they will wait for announcements to bring such assumption into actual fact, hopefully soon.


----------



## TabJockey

I TAKE UMBRAGE hahahahah this thread is horrible.

Technically looks like there will be plenty of trades left in the old girl yet, maybe even buy at 7 sell at 10... again! Pretty nasty stock for a medium term hold though, I agree with the bloke that says its going nowhere. Long term its still a good investment but, how long do you want to wait?


----------



## J&M

I brought in at 10c I sold out of this at .093 cents to cut my losses 
I brought in the TXN cap raising so good profit from TXN
I read most of the posts from Tech A which i find very informative 
and HangSeng he seems to be in for the long term also good posts 

The earthquake in Japan also had a bearing in my selling 
I did keep a few for future cap raising 

I still may buy back in at 6c or 7c 

So i guess you have to make up your own mind re this stock


----------



## barney

TabJockey said:


> I TAKE UMBRAGE hahahahah *this thread is horrible*.




Interestingly enough TJ ..... that comment just made it a little worse  (No disrespect intended)

Nulla Nulla's comments were far more useful than most of the subtle down ramping being disguised as fundamental analysis, being bandied around on the thread of late.

To paraphrase part of his observations ...... If anyone has a negative opinion on the stock ..... and you perceive the fundamentals have deteriorated .... and the technicals look like crap ...... 

What is the point of initiating a debate about it   ...... 




skc said:


> Yes all the talk about the nuclear industry is important but you can't make a call unless you do a valuation.
> 
> There are three main variables to PEN's price.
> 
> 1. uranium price
> 2. aud/usd exchange rate
> 3. amount of resources in the ground
> 
> Speculating on 1 in view of recent events is probably fair enough, although hard to quantify. Speculating on 2 using PEN as an vehicle is plain silly. The only other reason for bullish stance on PEN would be if one sees substantial upside in the resource estimates. If the investor holds that view then I suppose they will wait for announcements to bring such assumption into actual fact, hopefully soon.




As always SKC ...... common sense from a real investor ....... appreciate your comments.


----------



## nulla nulla

gnealson said:


> Still nothing of substance on the fundamentals of PEN, and now quickly shifting to personal attacks.
> 
> Grant




hmm..personal attacks. I take it your post is..tongue in cheek.


----------



## So_Cynical

nulla nulla said:


> Fact 1: Fukishima is not the only Nuclear Power Station in the world;
> Fact 2: There are hundreds more Nuclear Power stations in the planning stages for China, India and the rest of the world;
> Fact 3: The demand for Yellow Cake is not going to evaporate any time soon.
> 
> If PEN can produce yellowcake, they will have a market. If they can sell it for a profit then PEN will be arround for a long time to come regardless of where they started out and what they did in the past. If they found uranium on their leases instead of gold and had the kudos' to mine it in the face of a lot of political opposition in the past, good on them.
> 
> Get over it, move on, cut the bulldust. If you like uranium stocks buy PEN, trade PEN and post your comments on the PEN thread. If you don't like uranium stocks, don't waste your time posting on the PEN thread.
> 
> Personally If there is a trade opportunity with PEN and I see it, I will take it. It owes me nothing, I owe it nothing and all the other crap is just background noise. Also all the crap about protecting newbies is just that...crap. There is a well worn expression on the ASF site, it is DYOR. Do Your Own Research.




I'm with Nulla...the Fundamentals for PEN are all still in place, fear is driving the SP and 9 times outa 10 that translates to opportunity.


----------



## barney

Grant, 

Even though I am a little confused regarding your motives with PEN .....

Just for some balance



gnealson said:


> For instance, do you think what I wrote about the RCR valuation of PEN being 5.5-10.5 cents was incorrect?




Seemed reasonable



gnealson said:


> Do you agree that the market got ahead of itself when PEN rose above 11 cents?




It appears so in hindsight



gnealson said:


> How much do you expect the DFS announcement to impact the NPV (your best case/worst case estimates)?




Would be pure speculation either way.  Currently possibly a slight increase in the SP. 
Personally I am more interested in the possible increase in the resource base over the near term post DFS, and the possible acquisition of suitable projects ........... *which may well be purchased at a discount* due to the perceived deteriorating fundamentals for Uranium.  Opportunism in the short term by the Company may well lead to more significant gains in the longer term ............ A traders needs to balance his/her risk tolerance when investing of course.


----------



## nulla nulla

So_Cynical said:


> I'm with Nulla...the Fundamentals for PEN are all still in place, fear is driving the SP and 9 times outa 10 that translates to opportunity.




Right on the ball SC. That is what it is all about...opportunity. It doesn't matter a fig whether it is short term or long term, it is all about making a return on your capital.


----------



## gnealson

barney said:


> Even though I am a little confused regarding your motives with PEN .....




My main motive is to stamp out the bullying of anyone with a neutral or negative view in here.  I've been reading for a long time and finally got sick of it.  In the absence of the authorities taking action, this seems to be the best response to bullies:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjvXoK9JKEg&feature=related



barney said:


> Just for some balance
> 
> ...
> 
> Would be pure speculation either way.  Currently possibly a slight increase in the SP.
> Personally I am more interested in the possible increase in the resource base over the near term post DFS, and the possible acquisition of suitable projects ........... *which may well be purchased at a discount* due to the perceived deteriorating fundamentals for Uranium.  Opportunism in the short term by the Company may well lead to more significant gains in the longer term ............ A traders needs to balance his/her risk tolerance when investing of course.




True, but careful you don't fall for the pounds in the ground mistake.  Value is produced by increasing the rate we can sell pounds of Uranium and reducing the cost of producing them.  It's no good to double our resource base if we can't also increase our production rate or reduce our production costs.  Pounds we can only extract 20 years from now don't add much value in NPV calculations today.

I also think it's too soon to be contemplating acquisitions when we haven't got any cashflow yet.  Nothing wrong with speculation, but where's the limit?  I mean I could hypothesise that PEN will buy a 10 billion resource for nothing in the future, and that might be fun to contemplate, but I'd be pretty foolish to include it in my valuation right now.

Even though I disagree with some of your views, thanks for a level headed response.  Really appreciate it.  I thought SKC's response was pretty level headed too.

Grant


----------



## barney

gnealson said:


> My main motive is to stamp out the bullying of anyone with a neutral or negative view in here.  I've been reading for a long time and finally got sick of it.





On HotCopper I agree that does happen, but to be honest I hadn't noticed it much on ASF.  

Bullying is really just holders trying to verbally  "protect" their position, which is fairly normal human behaviour.     




gnealson said:


> True, but careful you don't fall for the pounds in the ground mistake.  Value is produced by increasing the rate we can sell pounds of Uranium and reducing the cost of producing them.  It's no good to double our resource base if we can't also increase our production rate or reduce our production costs.  Pounds we can only extract 20 years from now don't add much value in NPV calculations today.




Agree, but we have to respect the abilities of the management to bring the production plan together, and so far the management of Peninsular have done an excellent job on a tight time line.

PEN's proposed production costs are extremely competitive compared to its peers. It is more likely to succeed where other Juniors might get squeezed out due to reduced margins.

If this happens, PEN may end up in a better position in the medium/longer term based purely on supply and demand ...... None of these things can be measured at this stage of course, so its a personal investor decision on whether to take the punt. 



gnealson said:


> I also think it's too soon to be contemplating acquisitions when we haven't got any cashflow yet.  Nothing wrong with speculation, but where's the limit?




If we are to believe the management, near term acquisition/s is/are very much on the agenda 

Purchase of an additional existing resource (perhaps now at a discounted price??), would allow for immediate higher production rates and provide the capital required to speed up the delineation of our existing resources. 

In the immediate short term we have a nasty looking market retrace to contend with as well unfortunately.


----------



## Joe Blow

I would just like to point out that it is possible to disagree with other thread participants in a respectful way without attacking, denigrating, mocking or otherwise insulting them.

It is also possible to refer to other thread participants or their opinions/analysis politely without being snide, patronising, sarcastic or rude in any way.

All it takes is a little effort.

It takes many views to make a market and forums like ASF exist to help facilitate discussion and debate about various ASX listed companies. Disagreement and different opinions are to be expected. 

If you disagree with someone's post, or aspects of it, then please feel free to offer a different perspective; but please do it respectfully. 

If you are convinced someone is mistaken or has posted information you believe to be incorrect, then feel free to correct them; but please do it in a courteous and constructive way.

This post is not an invitation to debate the finer points of forum etiquette in this thread, it is simply a reminder about how we should treat other ASF members. Please take note of it and keep it in mind when you are composing your posts. If anyone would like anything clarified please PM me.

Now, lets get back to discussing PEN and see if we can keep this thread on topic and constructive. I look forward to, and appreciate, everyone's co-operation!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

From a charting view, PEN has displayed two nice triangles recently.

The latest, a descending indicates a probable down move to 0.055.

gg


----------



## gnealson

barney said:


> On HotCopper I agree that does happen, but to be honest I hadn't noticed it much on ASF.




Recently it happened on HC, the users got suspended and then moved here and started the exact same practice.  



barney said:


> Bullying is really just holders trying to verbally  "protect" their position, which is fairly normal human behaviour.




Bullying is an attack, not a justifiable defense of anything.



barney said:


> PEN's proposed production costs are extremely competitive compared to its peers. It is more likely to succeed where other Juniors might get squeezed out due to reduced margins.




I see this repeated often, and it's surely a strength for PEN, but without quantifying profit it makes no sense to me.  If we're only making $1 a pound then we have a pretty unexciting business.  Just because the next company is losing $5/lb, it doesn't make us more profitable or our shares more valuable.  So I agree it's a strength, but it's only half the story.



barney said:


> If this happens, PEN may end up in a better position in the medium/longer term based purely on supply and demand ...... None of these things can be measured at this stage of course, so its a personal investor decision on whether to take the punt.




To my mind, what this scenario requires is for PEN to be making a lot of cash for a considerable time, and then for the Uranium Industry to sink into the doldrums (perhaps around 2020?) and for PEN to then use its cash and its cost advantage over other players to borrow money and buy them out.  Right now however, I don't understand the emphasis on all these far dated future possibilities.  It has little bearing on the company now.



barney said:


> If we are to believe the management, near term acquisition/s is/are very much on the agenda




How much has management actually alluded to and how much has been baked in by internet pundits though?  If there is an acquisition, then I expect the main benefit from it to be sooner or cheaper production.  I try not to get too excited about these kinds of possibilities though because in the past I've seen all kinds of theories bandied about.  For instance, by my memory, over 2 years ago there was a lot of internet gossip about deals with nearby producers to use their processing facilities.  It still might turn out to be true, and it might even be done via acquisition, but it's been 2 years.  At the time, the implication was that we'd possibly be in production by 2011, but nothing ever came of it.  I'm naturally suspicious of such speculation because those with vested interests have so much to gain by misrepresenting the timeframe and the likelihood of these happenings.



barney said:


> Purchase of an additional existing resource (perhaps now at a discounted price??), would allow for immediate higher production rates and provide the capital required to speed up the delineation of our existing resources.




Immediately (?) higher production rates?  It seems you agree that the best acquisition would be processing facilities and preferably an ISR operation that is already producing, but again I question the timeframe.  People always talk about these possibilities as if the deal will be done inside a week and we'll be generating cash inside two.  Without timeframes and sober estimates of how it will affect the bottom line, I can't get too excited even though I agree the concept is plausible, sometime in the future.

Grant


----------



## hangseng

"How much has management actually alluded to and how much has been baked in by internet pundits though?"


A few facts surounding "aquisition(s)" and toll milling:

*Fact 1.*


Hartleys report 16 Feb 2011 _*"potential growth driven by acquisitions".*_

In the company presentation PEN stated _*"Look at near production acquisition opportunities in areas of existing operation"*_


*Fact 2. *

PEN has applied for a _*Permit to "Toll for others"*_ and this is publicly available information on ADAMS.
_Mostly missed by all commentators and public forums, except for those that read all available information and didn't skim_. This aspect would make a significant difference to both cashflow and the NPV if successful, as it would also utilise unused initial process plant capability.


RCR Report...I don't disagree with it at all. Except for PEN to have an NPV of 5c it requires a uranium price of $40/lb, the bottom of the uranium market that has now passed. Now history and irrelevant IMO.


_"Investment Comment: 

PEN remains on-track for completing the Lance DFS and timely permitting of its WY based ISR project, with production visibility 4Q12. The “nuclear renaissance” is expected to regain momentum, notwithstanding recent events in Japan. 

*Lance base case NPV A$165m (A$0.08/share; US$50/lb realised uranium price, vanadium US$7.50/lb).*

*With full de-risking of Lance, post commissioning, PEN NPV is A$0.10/share fully diluted * (discounting a realised uranium price of US$50/lb, AUD/USD 0.80 and 10% discount rate). 

*Assuming a US$60/lb uranium price, post commissioning, NPV rises to A$0.13/share fully diluted.* 

WY is a uranium friendly state, and combined with PEN’s experienced permitting consultants, and new streamlined US permitting procedures, the company is well positioned to fast track regulatory approvals."_


I feel sure we will see further RCR, BGF and Hartleys reports in the near future as the DFS figures are released and inevitable upgrades of resource are announced. I expect the DFS very soon, if not imminently now. As I do news on permitting, financing, further agreements for product and Karoo.

I still hold firm that the current irrational sentiment has provided an unprecedented opportunity. However I am a contrarian  investor prepare to take calculate risk (based on knowledge and known facts) and don't follow herd mentality, nor take notice of media hype.

A tragic event has just occurred that resulted in to date "_9,199 people having been confirmed killed and 14,000 are being listed as missing"***. _ This as a result of the massive earthquake and Tsunami, *not a nuclear plant accident*.

Perspective will eventually return, as will sanity and logic. All of which have for now gone out the window, as usually does when irrational fear takes hold.

Did PEN run ahead of itself? IMO no it didn't and albiet not for Japan would be still there or even higher leading into the DFS and other postive news.


*** source: http://earthquake-report.com/2011/03/22/japan-tsunami-the-death-toll-does-not-stop-climbing-part-6/


*I will add the latest update I have found:*

_"The March *earthquake and tsunami *killed up to 28,000 people and the estimated financial cost stands at $300bn (€207bn), making it the world's most expensive disaster. 

Japan's economics minister warned that the damage was likely to be worse than first thought as power shortages would cut factory output and disrupt supply chains."_*

Note: earthquake and tsunami ...NOT a Nuclear Plant accident.

source: http://www.independent.ie/world-new...ak-could-be-worse-than-chernobyl-2617692.html

Sanity will prevail eventually.*


----------



## hangseng

*Perspective:*

As stated in an ABC report this morning and posted elsewhere: 

"The reactor is getting all the media attention and the loss of 25000 lives in the quake and the consequent affect of the Japanese people, has been ignored>"


Now have a good close look at this excellent comparison.

_



*How does Fukushima differ from Chernobyl?*

Japanese authorities have raised the severity rating of the nuclear crisis at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi power plant to the highest level, seven.

The decision reflects the ongoing release of radiation, rather than a sudden deterioration. Level seven previously only applied to the 1986 *Chernobyl disaster, where 10 times as much radiation was emitted*. 

*But most experts agree the two nuclear incidents are very different.* 

Explore the table below to find out how they compare. 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13050228.
		
Click to expand...


_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> From a charting view, PEN has displayed two nice triangles recently.
> 
> The latest, a descending indicates a probable down move to 0.055.
> 
> gg




It opened at 0.077, today, crept back up to 0.082, and is now in retreat at 0.079.

This, thus far, is a confirmation of the breakout to the downside of the descending triangle, and it will probably fall further no matter how many tea leaves one inspects.

And its a full 16 mins to pulling up stumps.

Exciting.

gg


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> "How much has management actually alluded to and how much has been baked in by internet pundits though?"
> 
> 
> A few facts surounding "aquisition(s)" and toll milling:
> 
> *Fact 1.*
> 
> 
> Hartleys report 16 Feb 2011 _*"potential growth driven by acquisitions".*_
> 
> In the company presentation PEN stated _*"Look at near production acquisition opportunities in areas of existing operation"*_




Thanks for the clarification.  I'll await the time when 'potential' becomes 'actual' and 'looking' becomes 'found'.  Based on previous experience, it often takes years for these transitions to occur.



hangseng said:


> Fact 2. [/U][/B]
> 
> PEN has applied for a _*Permit to "Toll for others"*_ and this is publicly available information on ADAMS.
> _Mostly missed by all commentators and public forums, except for those that read all available information and didn't skim_. This aspect would make a significant difference to both cashflow and the NPV if successful, as it would also utilise unused initial process plant capability.




True, but the focus of the discussion has been on things that add value to the bottom line.  A permit to toll doesn't.  An actual tolling agreement probably will.  Please remember that this has been bandied about the internet for years.  I'm tired of the speculation and will await the actual announcement before I factor it into my valuation.



hangseng said:


> RCR Report...I don't disagree with it at all. Except for PEN to have an NPV of 5c it requires a uranium price of $40/lb, the bottom of the uranium market that has now passed. Now history and irrelevant IMO.




For the sake of clarity, with an exchange rate of *1.05 USD/AUD* and *$40/lb uranium*, *fully diluted*, RCR values PEN at:

*4.85 cents* per share

Furthermore, if PEN raises $40 million at 7 cents, it would reduce the value to:

*4.35 cents* per share

And if PEN raises $40 million at 5 cents, it would further reduce the value to:

*4.10 cents* per share




hangseng said:


> PEN remains on-track for completing the Lance DFS and timely permitting of its WY based ISR project, with production visibility 4Q12. The “nuclear renaissance” is expected to regain momentum, notwithstanding recent events in Japan.
> 
> *Lance base case NPV A$165m (A$0.08/share; US$50/lb realised uranium price, vanadium US$7.50/lb).
> 
> With full de-risking of Lance, post commissioning, PEN NPV is A$0.10/share fully diluted  (discounting a realised uranium price of US$50/lb, AUD/USD 0.80 and 10% discount rate).
> 
> Assuming a US$60/lb uranium price, post commissioning, NPV rises to A$0.13/share fully diluted.
> 
> WY is a uranium friendly state, and combined with PEN’s experienced permitting consultants, and new streamlined US permitting procedures, the company is well positioned to fast track regulatory approvals."[/I]*



*

Let's hope that the AUD falls 25 cents so these statements come to have meaning in the real world.



hangseng said:



			I still hold firm that the current irrational sentiment has provided an unprecedented opportunity. However I am a contrarian  investor prepare to take calculate risk (based on knowledge and known facts) and don't follow herd mentality, nor take notice of media hype.
		
Click to expand...



Is hangseng back on the table for discussion again?



hangseng said:



			Did PEN run ahead of itself? IMO no it didn't and albiet not for Japan would be still there or even higher leading into the DFS and other postive news.
		
Click to expand...



You've many times called for opinions to be backed by facts.  Shouldn't you also be held to the same standard?  Anyone can come on here and put 'IMO' in front of a figure, but doing so isn't Fundamental Analysis.

The RCR report nor anything you've posted supports the assertion that 15.5 cents was fair value.  To give you an idea of how far your opinion lies from the actual financial figures, RCR does provide one valuation of PEN at 16.4 cents, but to achieve that valuation, RCR:

* Used an exchange rate 25% below the one we actually have
* Set the Uranium price at $80 USD/lb which never happened this year, even in the spot market
* Ignores the dilution caused by all the in-the-money options
* Doesn't factor in the cost of obtaining $40 million of financing

Can you please provide the Fundamental basis for your assertion that PEN was correctly valued by the market at 15.5 cents in February.

Grant*


----------



## hangseng

gnealson said:


> Can you please provide the Fundamental basis for your assertion that PEN was correctly valued by the market at 15.5 cents *in February*.




_
Hartleys Research Report 
16 Feb 2011
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--wugiwethoh.pdf
*Price Target Increased to 16cps*

We have tweaked our model based on the sales price achieved and decreased the dilution effect of any future financing due to the increased share price. The *result is an increase in our valuation from 17cps to 18cps*, and we have increased our price target from 14cps to 16cps._


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> _
> Hartleys Research Report
> 16 Feb 2011
> http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--wugiwethoh.pdf
> *Price Target Increased to 16cps*
> 
> We have tweaked our model based on the sales price achieved and decreased the dilution effect of any future financing due to the increased share price. The *result is an increase in our valuation from 17cps to 18cps*, and we have increased our price target from 14cps to 16cps._




Hartley's also uses an exchange rate of 80 cents instead of the actual exchange rate hangseng, and based on your past quoting of financial figures I assume you're quoting the undiluted valuation.

It seems like you're just skimming broker reports and cherry picking the most pleasing numbers.

Grant


----------



## ColB

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It opened at 0.077, today, crept back up to 0.082, and is now in retreat at 0.079.
> 
> This, thus far, is a confirmation of the breakout to the downside of the descending triangle, and it will probably fall further no matter how many tea leaves one inspects.
> 
> And its a full 16 mins to pulling up stumps.
> 
> *Exciting.*
> 
> gg




Just to clarify a couple of points GG.  PEN opened at 0.077 and was then sold down to 0.074 by weaker hands before presumably some thought it may have been oversold and represented good value as the SP climbed back to 0.081-0.082 before then retreating to 0.079 on close.

There is no denying the SP is in a downward trend but the 'probability' of the SP retreating to 0.055 is extremely remote no matter what your nice triangles, one of which defined by a natural disaster, are telling you. 

Can't quite see what there is to get exicited about but it's great you're having a good day


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> _
> Hartleys Research Report
> 16 Feb 2011
> http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--wugiwethoh.pdf
> *Price Target Increased to 16cps*
> 
> We have tweaked our model based on the sales price achieved and decreased the dilution effect of any future financing due to the increased share price. The *result is an increase in our valuation from 17cps to 18cps*, and we have increased our price target from 14cps to 16cps._




For anyone who's interested, I decided to take a closer look at this report and discovered that a similar set of assumptions needed to be made as did with the RCR report:

* 80 cent USD/AUD exchange rate
* $74 USD/lb Uranium price was used based on forward sales of 8% of PEN's Uranium
* No dilution was assumed (in other words pretending that nearly a billion options don't exist, and thereby incorrectly adding approx 40-50% to the per share valuation)

Brokerage houses make these assumptions to facilitate easier comparison with peers and it's a common mistake of investors to forget to adjust for these values when talking about the real value of the company itself.  Cynics would also argue that Brokerage houses who own shares in the companies they're reporting on prefer to present the company in the best light possible, so you'll often find these assumptions in the small print.

Unless further information comes to light, I think it's pretty clear that 15.5 cents was far too much to pay for a PEN share in February based on information known at the time, including brokerage reports.  I stand by my previous range of 5.5 - 10.7 cents.

Grant


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ColB said:


> Just to clarify a couple of points GG.  PEN opened at 0.077 and was then sold down to 0.074 by weaker hands before presumably some thought it may have been oversold and represented good value as the SP climbed back to 0.081-0.082 before then retreating to 0.079 on close.
> 
> There is no denying the SP is in a downward trend but the 'probability' of the SP retreating to 0.055 is extremely remote no matter what your nice triangles, one of which defined by a natural disaster, are telling you.
> 
> Can't quite see what there is to get exicited about but it's great you're having a good day




This is a very interesting thread, so much information, so many figures, it is nice to watch the price action and chart it.

It makes so much more sense than weather or Hardly's tea leaves.

gg


----------



## hangseng

gnealson said:


> No dilution was assumed (in other words pretending that nearly a billion options don't exist, and thereby incorrectly adding approx 40-50% to the per share valuation)





How did you arrive at that assumption?

"Fully Diluted" is the term and metric they used, not as you have assumed and wrongly stated. I will take notice of professionals that do this for a living not forum incorrect assumptions, subjective views and innuendo.

*Hartleys valuation:*


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> How did you arrive at that assumption?




My mistake, I didn't expect to see $300m+ of 'value' coming from future Exploration of Karoo/Lance!  Compare with RCRs base figure, $98m.  Hartley's themselves even felt the need to note:



> This upside *potential* already makes up more than half of our valuation




(Emphasis added by me.)

It probably goes some way to explain why their 3 month price target was less than their valuation!  Seems pretty unusual, perhaps counting chickens before they've hatched?  And coincidently, the extra 200m conjured negates the effect of fully diluting a more 'hatched' figure.  Why stop at $300m I wonder?  Why not just make it a cool billion while holding our pinkies up to the corners of our mouths?  RCR estimate it at a third the value of Hartley's ($98m base case).

They clearly have a very different view of valuation methodologies and make very different assumptions.  What makes you choose Hartley's reports over RCR reports?

Grant


----------



## barney

gnealson said:


> Is hangseng back on the table for discussion again?




Grant,  May I firstly say that you seem to have an excellent perception of fundamentals which I respect (Fundamentals are definitely not my forte) 

However, comments like the above directed at another poster (not the first time) concern me regarding your sincerity with regard to discussing PEN.

You mentioned bullying of posters with a negative slant on PEN as one of your main "issues" ..... yet your above comment looks a little like a "bullies" statement to me

Don't get me wrong ... I'm sure Hang Seng can look after himself .... I don't know him personally and I'm not about to join sides in a dog fight .. but you seem to be more engrossed in discrediting him as a person than you are about this stock .... Am I wrong with this observation

I suspect there are some deeper issues at play here, and if that is the case, I would think private messaging might be a better place to deal with it.

Basically I am very confused about your sudden appearance on this site ... your apparent dislike of Hang Seng .... and your apparent negativity towards PEN, while at the same time indicating a desire to invest/re-invest(??) in the Company ....  

(Genuine observation/questions on my part and no disrespect intended at all)

Cheers.


----------



## mr. jeff

re the valuation discussion, can I add without entering into the fray in an offensive or defensive way, that PEN in a bullish time with exploration prospects and Ux becoming a hot commodity could easily add double to any valuation that was based purely on existing assets eg. 20c no sweat. 
The inverse would be that PEN could trade at half its realistic valuation as well, 5c no problems.
Look at H/REE or potash or even W stocks (for a short time).
We all know that valuations are based on the valuer just as much as the company, the old GI-GO routine, just as enjoyable are seeing PE's compared or applied to various stocks.


----------



## TabJockey

That's probably a very good point Mr Jeff, the valuation range of PEN is enormous.

Also I think Grant comes across as quite negative because hes a little frustrated with the over bullish sentiment in this thread.

Personally I traded PEN in the march V shape and made a bundle, of which I did not turn into cash but into a free carry holding. I have faith that I may see huge returns in the future, but not the near future. Maybe not even 2011.


----------



## explod

Valuation is based on many things.  The most important from an outsider (which is most of us if we do not work for the company) is market *sentiment*.

The chart is in a down trend (for all the reasons above we know) so the stock is currently sick.

Some of the rampers on here need to get over it.  Reasoning bordering on rubbish is not going to help and for the long term I would wait for an entry when it is going back into an uptrend.


----------



## gnealson

barney said:


> However, comments like the above directed at another poster (not the first time) concern me regarding your sincerity with regard to discussing PEN.




I was reminding hangseng not to talk about himself in the PEN forum.

Sorry to ignore the rest of your post, you do seem genuine Barney, but I can't answer it without launching into a big non-PEN discussion.

If you feel I'm talking about non-PEN issues or making a personal attack, please note it in the same way I noted it when hangseng did.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

mr. jeff said:


> re the valuation discussion, can I add without entering into the fray in an offensive or defensive way, that PEN in a bullish time with exploration prospects and Ux becoming a hot commodity could easily add double to any valuation that was based purely on existing assets eg. 20c no sweat.
> The inverse would be that PEN could trade at half its realistic valuation as well, 5c no problems.
> Look at H/REE or potash or even W stocks (for a short time).
> We all know that valuations are based on the valuer just as much as the company, the old GI-GO routine, just as enjoyable are seeing PE's compared or applied to various stocks.




Couldn't agree more.  Except I'm a little less cynical about valuations that you perhaps.  Firstly, I think anyone professing to be an investor has to do valuations to be taken seriously.  Secondly, a valuation is largely maths and assumptions.  There's little room for subjectivity in the maths, and I don't mind what assumptions are made as long as they're stated clearly so everyone can judge for themselves whether they're fair or not.  Stating a figure without maths or assumptions is very bad form IMO.

You're dead right though, if the Uranium price and/or the exchange rate start trending with us, then we'll see another big shift in sentiment and probably another push above fair value as the traders get over-exuberant again.  The DFS should lift fair value a little, but I don't know it'll be as much of a game changer as some people suggest.  I think the impact to the bottom line was already factored in many times over when the shares were at 15.5 cents, and we'll have to wait for those holders to depart before we can start the next leg up.

Grant


----------



## hangseng

WEBCAST ARCHIVE WILL POST
THURSDAY, APRIL 14

http://live.arcusa-newyork.com/


Welcome to ARC-USA 2011
Laurie Barr, President ARC USA

Opening Remarks 
Tom Dean, Murdock Capital


Presenting Companies
Andy Kyzyk, OTC Markets
John Greeve, Mutiny Gold
Networking break
Ken Chapple, Gold Anomaly
Terry Barr, Samson Oil and Gas

Keynote Speaker
Chris Rodwell - Queensland, Australia Trade & Investment Commissioner for the Americas

*Presenting Companies*
Arlene Villareal, BNY Mellon
Andrew Mortimer, Proto Resources
Networking break
*Gus Simpson, Peninsula Energy*
Lia Darby, Director,Condor Blanco Mines
Dr. Michael Berry, Discovery Investing
"THE WORLD'S NEW ENERGY IMPERATIVE"


----------



## jasejdv3

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*

Great news Deep well Licence approved, well Done PEN ( very important first step) Great stuff.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110414/pdf/41y1w69dc486nc.pdf


----------



## hangseng

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



jasejdv3 said:


> Great news Deep well Licence approved, well Done PEN ( very important first step) Great stuff.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110414/pdf/41y1w69dc486nc.pdf




Thanks jase, more important than some think mate. I will be celebrating tonight!


----------



## gnealson

explod said:


> Valuation is based on many things.  The most important from an outsider (which is most of us if we do not work for the company) is market *sentiment*.




Succinctly put.  One of the best PEN posters on HC, binbin, asked a crucial question on the sentiment change the other day.  After Fukushima, will the public at large want to buy houses and raise children within 40km of a Nuclear plant?  What would plans to build a new Nuclear plant within 40kms of your real estate investment do to the perceived value of it now, and how would you vote in response to a politician forcing one on you?

Sentiment is going to be much more important than the views of experts when it comes to the long term impact of Fukushima.  The 9/11 terrorist attack makes an excellent case in point.  I don't see how the final engineering report could be more comprehensive or more compelling, but a massive number of people still believe 'loose change' type theories about what 'really' happened.  Similar numbers of people believe the moon landing was a hoax despite rigorous debunking by countless experts.  The educated saw through the hysteria of 3 Mile Island at the time and again with Chernobyl.  The facts and expert opinion surrounding those incidents ended up having almost no correlation with the impact to sentiment within the public at large.

The one thing that makes me optimistic is that the Nuclear lobby is more powerful and more organised than it was in the 70s and 80s.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



jasejdv3 said:


> Great news Deep well Licence approved, well Done PEN ( very important first step) Great stuff.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110414/pdf/41y1w69dc486nc.pdf




Thanks.  Very important milestone.  Could have been significant delays without this.  Should see a bit more activity tomorrow morning on open if we're lucky.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> WEBCAST ARCHIVE WILL POST
> THURSDAY, APRIL 14
> 
> http://live.arcusa-newyork.com/




This is also much appreciated.

Grant


----------



## hangseng

Excellent article and well worth a read. Sentiment will change positively, of that I have no doubt and it will be driven by demand despite what pundits are saying to the contrary.

And this only focusses on the big 3, South east Asia is not changing plans and is forging ahead as planned, with Korea in the lead as usual.


*Nuclear Outlook Following One Month After Japan Disaster*By Dave Brown – Exclusive to Uranium Investing News
Tue, Apr 12, 2011 

http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/7409/nuclear-outlook-following-one-month-after-japan-disaster.html

*Revisiting the longer term nuclear outlook*

In an exclusive interview with Uranium Investing News, Gary Clark, analyst at Roubini Global Economics, discussed the demonstrable longer term effect on nuclear power generation policy in several countries of interest:


----------



## explod

hangseng said:


> Excellent article and well worth a read. Sentiment will change positively, of that I have no doubt and it will be driven by demand despite what pundits are saying to the contrary.
> 
> And this only focusses on the big 3, South east Asia is not changing plans and is forging ahead as planned, with Korea in the lead as usual.
> 
> 
> *Nuclear Outlook Following One Month After Japan Disaster*By Dave Brown – Exclusive to Uranium Investing News
> Tue, Apr 12, 2011
> 
> http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/7409/nuclear-outlook-following-one-month-after-japan-disaster.html
> 
> *Revisiting the longer term nuclear outlook*
> 
> In an exclusive interview with Uranium Investing News, Gary Clark, analyst at Roubini Global Economics, discussed the demonstrable longer term effect on nuclear power generation policy in several countries of interest:




But, and a *big but*, till sentiment changes there are very much better investments elsewhere. 

Money needs to be at work on something that is working, not on something that is going down in a downtrend.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



gnealson said:


> Sorry to ignore the rest of your post, you do seem genuine Barney, but I can't answer it without launching into a big non-PEN discussion.




No worries Grant .... Happy for the thread to carry on discussing more important issues.



hangseng said:


> Thanks jase, more important than some think mate. I will be celebrating tonight!




Ditto!



gnealson said:


> The one thing that makes me optimistic is that the Nuclear lobby is more powerful and more organised than it was in the 70s and 80s.






gnealson said:


> Should see a bit more activity tomorrow morning on open if we're lucky.




Pleased to see you seem a bit more positive Grant (all that negativity was starting to worry me ..... Could I surmise you may be a PEN holder again ....... If so, well done


----------



## barney

explod said:


> But, and a *big but*, till sentiment changes there are very much better investments elsewhere.
> 
> Money needs to be at work on something that is working, not on something that is going down in a downtrend.




Generally I agree with you "X" ..... but every bodies situation is not the same as I know you appreciate. 


ie.  Point of entry, Investment time frame and Taxation just for starters.  Closing long term positions and chasing short term gains when "Julia' is going to put her hand out for a very large slice of the former .... and there is no guarantee of the latter, is not always the best option.

I know you are aware of this, but I just thought I'd add it for balance. 

Cheers.


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> Excellent article.




Excellent report:

The Impact of Fukushima On Nuclear Power (Comprehensive, minimal bias, and with opinion surveys before/after the incident, etc)

Grant


----------



## gnealson

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



barney said:


> Could I surmise you may be a PEN holder again




I hold zero PEN shares/options.  Please play the ball not the man barney.  I won't answer any more personal questions here.

Grant


----------



## Purd2

LOLOLOL. Binbin one of the best posters on hotcopper. Had the goose on ignore for years. Actually gnealson he is you  LOLOLOL.   

Canary event was great today. Spoke with the PEN director Mal James. VERY interesting what he referred to in regard to financing, attitude to future in regard to acquisitions and the number of suitors  knocking on the door reroduct etc.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



gnealson said:


> I hold zero PEN shares/options.  Please play the ball not the man barney.  I won't answer any more personal questions here.
> 
> Grant




I was actually being genuine if you did buy in Grant .... but I now appreciate that if you had, that may indicate an ulterior motive in some of your previous posts

If that were the case, or if not, no problem either way from me ..... I called it as I saw it, (you have appeared to have a change of sentiment over the last 24 hrs or so however.   I therefore I assumed (maybe incorrectly) that you had taken a position.

Good luck either way .... I'm  certainly not trying to create a kerfuffle over nothing ... 

I'm way more interested in stopping my trading account balance from bleeding as it has over the last few weeks

Cheers ..........  and I assure you, no ulterior motive/s from me


----------



## svengali

Purd2 said:


> LOLOLOL. Binbin one of the best posters on hotcopper. Had the goose on ignore for years. Actually gnealson he is you  LOLOLOL.
> 
> Canary event was great today. Spoke with the PEN director Mal James. VERY interesting what he referred to in regard to financing, attitude to future in regard to acquisitions and the number of suitors  knocking on the door reroduct etc.







I was at the Canary symposium and it dispelt most if not all the misinterpretation, malice, and downright lies peddled by some on various sites. We spoke directly to the directors who had spoken to the public present

It was stated forcibly by some of the participants that Japan, while a vast tragedy, was just a "blip on the radar" of the nuclear story

Uranium usage over the next 10 years was going to go from 60,000 tons per annum to 140,000 tons, that's supply and demand for you

And guess which company of those participating was going to come on tap first, has the most cash in the bank, has at least 6 groups wishing to fund the mill, has a delighted investor in PALA, has US utilities wanting in and is coming to fruition along the time span announced ......why good old PEN

Personally I don't want to read any more nit pickers, I just say go to these meetings, talk to the company, learn something  and don't speculate and preach

We're on the money bigtime, bring it on, the nae sayers can do as they please


----------



## explod

svengali said:


> I was at the Canary symposium and it dispelt most if not all the misinterpretation, malice, and downright lies peddled by some on various sites. We spoke directly to the directors who had spoken to the public present
> 
> It was stated forcibly by some of the participants that Japan, while a vast tragedy, was just a "blip on the radar" of the nuclear story
> 
> Uranium usage over the next 10 years was going to go from 60,000 tons per annum to 140,000 tons, that's supply and demand for you
> 
> And guess which company of those participating was going to come on tap first, has the most cash in the bank, has at least 6 groups wishing to fund the mill, has a delighted investor in PALA, has US utilities wanting in and is coming to fruition along the time span announced ......why good old PEN
> 
> Personally I don't want to read any more nit pickers, I just say go to these meetings, talk to the company, learn something  and don't speculate and preach
> 
> We're on the money bigtime, bring it on, the nae sayers can do as they please




That's great. but why is the share price going down ?


----------



## anthndp

I was thinking the same, last time i checked PEN was down 46.67% from it's 52 week high. sounds like it just jumped to a $1 in the last 4 hours whilst the market was closed. The only ones sitting on the money are the directors, the investors money.
Seriously guys you sound like you've just come back from one of those dodgy property investment seminars.


----------



## svengali

explod said:


> That's great. but why is the share price going down ?




I wrote in because I attended the symposium, I'm not quoting what was said word for word but tried to get across the sentiment

If you and the other derisory replyers aren't interested, I couldn't give a rats ar*e. Don't quite know why some guy reckons the directors are somehow the only people gaining from this share, at the moment I have doubled my money and there is plenty more coming

One great thing about the share market is you don't have to be in it, and you can make your own judgement, the knockers of this share can just sell and look on, then everyone is happy

To quote the old saying ......."You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him look at the view"

I've written what I heard and discussed, just trying to help so no more re this from me


----------



## anthndp

I didn't realise there was a minimum quota we had to stick too.
We aren't aloud to just read the posts. 
Is that why there isn't a threads read counter?
Actually i just used to read about the companies I had shares in but this one keep poping up on the top of the list in jan.
I just don't understand why this is a 100% sure thing, you guys act as if the only way for the share price to go is up, yet it seems you all discounted the fact that a nuclear acciddent could happen, i bet a nuclear accident was at the bottom of all your lists back in Jan. 
Phew has happened in decades.
Well i hope your Lance project doesn't shut down like last time when Three mile occured, sorry i don't know enought about the history, it is was in one of the pdfs the poster who abused me had posted in 2008.

Well i'll just go back to looking at the 3y chart of FGE..
BYE


----------



## gnealson

svengali said:


> I was at the Canary symposium and it dispelt most if not all the misinterpretation, malice, and downright lies peddled by some on various sites. We spoke directly to the directors who had spoken to the public present
> 
> It was stated forcibly by some of the participants that Japan, while a vast tragedy, was just a "blip on the radar" of the nuclear story
> 
> Uranium usage over the next 10 years was going to go from 60,000 tons per annum to 140,000 tons, that's supply and demand for you
> 
> And guess which company of those participating was going to come on tap first, has the most cash in the bank, has at least 6 groups wishing to fund the mill, has a delighted investor in PALA, has US utilities wanting in and is coming to fruition along the time span announced ......why good old PEN
> 
> Personally I don't want to read any more nit pickers, I just say go to these meetings, talk to the company, learn something  and don't speculate and preach
> 
> We're on the money bigtime, bring it on, the nae sayers can do as they please




As Warren Buffet says: "Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut"!

Grant


----------



## gnealson

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



barney said:


> I was actually being genuine




I haven't noticed you questioning the motives or statements of those who are bullish.

Grant


----------



## Joe Blow

Some off topic and no content posts have been removed. Lets please keep this thread on topic and refrain from making accusations or attacking others. 

Thank you.


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



gnealson said:


> I haven't noticed you questioning the motives or statements of those who are bullish.
> 
> Grant




Fair call, and guilty as charged. I make no secret of being biased to the Bull camp.  

Short term that has been a bit more painful than anticipated.  Longer term ..... One step at a time from here.  

The Deep Well License is a major achievement and should give a more positive foundation to build from.


----------



## gnealson

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



barney said:


> Fair call, and guilty as charged. I make no secret of being biased to the Bull camp.




Fair enough, but bias got you into the painful situation and will cost you money long term IMO.  Imagine if you'd been questioning the bulls and realised that they were overly optimistic.  You'd be in a completely different situation right now.



barney said:


> The Deep Well License is a major achievement and should give a more positive foundation to build from.




How major?  Did you notice that it only applies to Ross?  What do you think of the price action today?  The high volume pump and dump confirms my suspicions that there's a large overhang of stock to clear before any announcement will have much of a lasting impact IMO.

Grant


----------



## hangseng

I have just watched the arcusa presentation by Gus.

http://live.arcusa-newyork.com/10-GusSimpson.html

His extended focus on a strategic partner was very noticeable. It also happens to be an April Milestone, what has PEN achieved in the recent USA visit by Gus? I also enjoyed his closing comments, as usual he remains soilidly focussed.

This will be an interesting couple of weeks, along with the DFS announcement and decision to mine imminent according to PEN's milestones table and Gus's statements.


----------



## prawn_86

This has to be probably one of the most talked about stocks that does not actually have cashflow from sales or is even close to it.

Kind of reminds me a bit of ADI from last year, but at least with oilers you can drill a well and tie it into a production line fairly quickly.

When is the anticipated date of PEN having revenue from production?


----------



## hangseng

prawn_86 said:


> When is the anticipated date of PEN having revenue from production?




1Q2012

I will openly state, as has Gus himself publicly, this is an ambitious target. However it is an ambitious and aggressively pursued targeted milestone based on an outstanding permit submission and preceding process of openess and consultation with both regulatiors and the community.

Note PEN achieved the DWDW permit in record time in a few months. Many here and elswhere posting it could take PEN years to achieve this based on others past applications. To date they are clearly wrong.

Without this permit all others become superfluous. PEN can now apply for early construction exemption to commence this work and also to commence the construction of the process plant. All part of PEN's aggressive strategy.

PEN are way ahead of peers that were once the "darlings" of the market. Look at BLR now for instance, once 35c now 3.6c (and falling) and not even close to PEN's position and looking like 2c could occur sooner rather than later. PNN, now on hold due to a very high Capex with BMN sufering a similar fate (although I do like BMN's future outlook).

Remains to be seen if PEN can achieve this planned milestone but to date it looks very promising. Gus once stated to me the PEN board openly discussed they plan to "under promise and over deliver". If they achieve this aggessive, and yet ambitious, target they will have achieved just that.


ps. 
I will add the RCR report has "visible production" stated as 3Q2012. I questioned Gus over this and he stated that is RCR's individual view and not PEN's nor did it come from PEN.


----------



## skc

hangseng said:


> 1Q2012
> 
> I will openly state, as has Gus himself publicly, this is an ambitious target. However it is an ambitious and aggressively pursued targeted milestone based on an outstanding permit submission and preceding process of openess and consultation with both regulatiors and the community.
> 
> Note PEN achieved the DWDW permit in record time in a few months. Many here and elswhere posting it could take PEN years to achieve this based on others past applications. To date they are clearly wrong.
> 
> Without this permit all others become superfluous. PEN can now apply for early construction exemption to commence this work and also to commence the construction of the process plant. All part of PEN's aggressive strategy.




Does that mean PEN will need to raise capital most likely within the next 6 months? i.e. After DFS before major spending on site.


----------



## hangseng

skc said:


> Does that mean PEN will need to raise capital most likely within the next 6 months? i.e. After DFS before major spending on site.




PEN has access to $33,000,000 cash now as stated in the arcusa presentation today, and another $100,000,000 from PALA should they so choose to use it. Also access to another $50,000,000 funding from a previous transaction remains valid.

PEN are clearly pursuing other forms of funding and it sounded very positive in the arcusa presentation.

Remains to be seen what they end up doing.


----------



## hangseng

As I do I have again listened to the arcusa presentation. I often re-read reports as more often than not I can miss information.

Glad I did and relevant to your question skc.

Gus stated the $100,000,000 facility is predominently set aside for an "aquisition". That term just keeps popping up and I watch this aspect closely as it is clear PEN is looking for an aquisition.

What wasn't elborated on is what was meant by "predominently". In the past it has been stated that PEN has the required funding to go all the way to production however they are pursuing other funding means.

We can only speculate on what will happen here, however I personally like it that again they have publicly stated the intention to pursue an aquisition.

Aside from this it should be noted that ARMZ still does not have a license to export uranium. The Wyoming assets are useless to them without this. Also these assets are minimal compared to the main assets of Uranium One in Kazakhstan. It could be that ARMZ will sell the Wyoming asset of which is a "near producer", just what PEN would be interested in and capable of purchasing.

Uranium One paid _"$35 million in cash for Malco, which owns the licensed and permitted Irigaray in-situ recovery (ISR) central processing plant, the Christensen Ranch satellite ISR facility and associated uranium resources located in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming."
source: _http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ENF-Uranium_One_acquires_Wyoming_assets-1108094.html

Uranium One paid $35m and PEN has a $100m funding facility available and set aside for an aquisition. All assets in Wyoming USA, Powder River Basin.

Will ARMZ be successful in obtaining the export license, will they settle for selling uranium in the USA or will they sell the asset?

I watch this very closely each day with great interest, even more so since watching the arcusa presentation again today.


----------



## skc

hangseng said:


> Glad I did and relevant to your question skc.
> 
> Gus stated the $100,000,000 facility is predominently set aside for an "aquisition". That term just keeps popping up and I watch this aspect closely as it is clear PEN is looking for an aquisition.
> 
> What wasn't elborated on is what was meant by "predominently". In the past it has been stated that PEN has the required funding to go all the way to production however they are pursuing other funding means.




Thanks. Doesn't sound like they need too much additional cash until production which is a good thing for holders.


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> PEN are way ahead of peers that were once the "darlings" of the market. Look at BLR now for instance, once 35c




BLR was 35c around 2001.  PEN was 35c around Feb 1997.  If you believe that prior highs have any bearing on the quality of a company today, then it must similarly reflect badly on PEN, right?  

I realise how shocking this must be, so I hope you're sitting down when you read this.  Are you going to 'sell in an instant' now that you've discovered PEN suffers the same grave flaw that BLR does?



hangseng said:


> now 3.6c (and falling)




Actually, it rose 15% since you wrote that without any announcement.  Compare with PEN, which only rose 2.5% despite an 'important' announcement.



hangseng said:


> and not even close to PEN's position and looking like 2c could occur sooner rather than later.




Without providing any reasoning this might be perceived by some as down-ramping.  Despite the pretext, I think it's pretty clearly more than you needed to say in the PEN forum.



hangseng said:


> Remains to be seen if PEN can achieve this planned milestone but to date it looks very promising. Gus once stated to me the PEN board openly discussed they plan to "under promise and over deliver". If they achieve this aggessive, and yet ambitious, target they will have achieved just that.




Joe Blow yesterday requested for us all to stop quoting unverifiable conversations unless we had it in writing.  So can you please post the email in which Gus wrote this, with the email message header, and also Gus' approval for it to be published on the internet.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> As I do I have again listened to the arcusa presentation. I often re-read reports as more often than not I can miss information.
> 
> Glad I did and relevant to your question skc.
> 
> Gus stated the $100,000,000 facility is predominently set aside for an "aquisition". That term just keeps popping up and I watch this aspect closely as it is clear PEN is looking for an aquisition.
> 
> What wasn't elborated on is what was meant by "predominently". In the past it has been stated that PEN has the required funding to go all the way to production however they are pursuing other funding means.
> 
> We can only speculate on what will happen here, however I personally like it that again they have publicly stated the intention to pursue an aquisition.
> 
> Aside from this it should be noted that ARMZ still does not have a license to export uranium. The Wyoming assets are useless to them without this. Also these assets are minimal compared to the main assets of Uranium One in Kazakhstan. It could be that ARMZ will sell the Wyoming asset of which is a "near producer", just what PEN would be interested in and capable of purchasing.
> 
> Uranium One paid _"$35 million in cash for Malco, which owns the licensed and permitted Irigaray in-situ recovery (ISR) central processing plant, the Christensen Ranch satellite ISR facility and associated uranium resources located in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming."
> source: _http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ENF-Uranium_One_acquires_Wyoming_assets-1108094.html
> 
> Uranium One paid $35m and PEN has a $100m funding facility available and set aside for an aquisition. All assets in Wyoming USA, Powder River Basin.
> 
> Will ARMZ be successful in obtaining the export license, will they settle for selling uranium in the USA or will they sell the asset?
> 
> I watch this very closely each day with great interest, even more so since watching the arcusa presentation again today.




Excellent post Hangseng.  Since I'm so harsh on you when I feel you stray I think it's important I also commend you when you produce high quality, objective, analysis and research like this.

Grant


----------



## hangseng

gnealson said:


> BLR was 35c around 2001.  PEN was 35c around Feb 1997.  If you believe that prior highs have any bearing on the quality of a company today, then it must similarly reflect badly on PEN, right?
> 
> I realise how shocking this must be, so I hope you're sitting down when you read this.  Are you going to 'sell in an instant' now that you've discovered PEN suffers the same grave flaw that BLR does?
> 
> Actually, it rose 15% since you wrote that without any announcement.  Compare with PEN, which only rose 2.5% despite an 'important' announcement.
> 
> Without providing any reasoning this might be perceived by some as down-ramping.  Despite the pretext, I think it's pretty clearly more than you needed to say in the PEN forum.
> 
> Joe Blow yesterday requested for us all to stop quoting unverifiable conversations unless we had it in writing.  So can you please post the email in which Gus wrote this, with the email message header, and also Gus' approval for it to be published on the internet.
> 
> Grant




*BLR was 34.5c according to my IC chart on the 23/5/2007*, on Etradepro it shows 35c on the same date. Maybe you have something different, by all means please display it but that is what it was. Once a market darling but clearly out of favour now.

PEN became PEN in 2004, you are quoting the delisted company KNL, of which was not PEN. PEN took over the assets of KNL and KNL was renamed PEN.

Joe has already discussed this with me and I won't be posting again nor elaborating any further on that. Except to state what I said to Joe, it is also a statement he has made publicly.  

The rest can go to the keeper, I am not getting embroiled in your petty games here.  This is an excellent forum and I will do all I can to keep it that way. 

Sell PEN? I think NOT!


----------



## barney

*Re: PEN  DEEP WELL LICENCE APPROVED*



gnealson said:


> Fair enough, but bias got you into the painful situation and will cost you money long term IMO.  Imagine if you'd been questioning the bulls and realised that they were overly optimistic.  You'd be in a completely different situation right now.




I can understand how you may come to those conclusions Grant, but in defense of my own trading, I can honestly and equivocally state that you are way off the mark 



gnealson said:


> confirms my suspicions that there's a large overhang of stock to clear




I agree that there will be a some effort required for the SP to break some of the current resistance levels. I'll be happy to see a base form around the 8 cent mark for the time being.


----------



## prawn_86

Just another reminder that this thread is to discuss PEN, not users posting style, ASF rules, what constitues (up or down) ramping etc.

Posts must contain analysis about PEN (and not go off topic during another part of that post), either fundamental or technical.

Please keep the discussion to the stock at hand.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

prawn_86 said:


> Just another reminder that this thread is to discuss PEN, not users posting style, ASF rules, what constitues (up or down) ramping etc.
> 
> Posts must contain analysis about PEN (and not go off topic during another part of that post), either fundamental or technical.
> 
> Please keep the discussion to the stock at hand.




Perhaps after your wise advice Prawn, I may now continue with some charting analysis 
relevant to PEN.
After a breakout from the descending triangle, PEN has now retraced to lie just below 
where it broke on reasonably high volume of 34m. Unfortunately it must be stated this 
number is units of stock rather than value, none the less it brought the price to below  
.8 where it closed on 13.4.11. 
.6 seemed a possibility, but it rallied and over the next two trading days, PEN has 
inched it's way back to 0.85 on indifferent volume, thus making one postulate that the 
scene is set for a retracement from the previous resistance at 0.85. Holders may be 
anticipating a run up from here, however this would be uncommon for a descending 
chart pattern such as a triangle. Rather a testing of the resistance is the norm, it being 
uncommon for this to be followed by bullish run. This analysis is justified by the 
number of shares traded on the 15.4.11, and by the close at .82 , with an open of .85 
taking the high at .87, this stock is for lower. My opinion only.

gg


----------



## mickqld

CURRENT fundamentals will always continue to drive a stocks SP and so it will be with PEN. You can throw up charts and share prices from 10 yrs ago which are completely irrelevant as PEN was an entirely different company back then. The only purpose in doing this is either being totally ill informed about the company history or blatant down ramping and malicious scaremongering.



From http://www.smallcapinvestor.com/article/why-i-continue-to-be-a-uranium-bull/23146



Immediately following Japan’s natural catastrophe and subsequent nuclear disaster, I wrote an article titled, “Is Now the Time to Buy Uranium Miners?” 

In this article I suggested that history displays time and time again that buying shares amidst the onslaught of panic selling ultimately pays handsome rewards. 

For instance,  the price of uranium quickly moved from $63 per pound to a low of $49.75 shortly after the catastrophe occurred in Japan. Since the low was established two trading days after the Japanese disaster the spot price has bounced back 18.6 percent, to $59 per pound.  



Let’s be realistic about the fundamentals of the uranium market. 

Remember, there are already 440 nuclear reactors in operation across the globe. There are an additional 108 nuclear reactors currently under construction in the world’s two largest emerging markets of China and India. The World Nuclear Association (WNA) estimates there will be an additional 331 nuclear reactors (including the 108 in China and India) in operation within the next 15 years. 
At the end of the day, the world's energy needs outweigh the risk of an isolated incident in Japan. You don't make a bad situation (declining fossil fuel resources and increasing pollution) worse by making hasty decisions to eliminate a key and clean energy source for the future. 
The available supply of uranium remains unchanged since the Fukushima disaster, and according to the World Nuclear Association demand remains strong. 
If we look out over the next 8 to 10 years, which is the amount of time it takes a nuclear power plant to become fully operational, the market will remain 400 million pounds short of needed demand on an annual basis – forget about any increase in demand from new nuclear power plants. 

The fundamentals of the current uranium market are clear – there is a significant gap between current supply and demand. Rising future demand will only amplify the shortfall. 

The top 5 uranium producers, which make up almost 90% of the uranium supply market, only produced 110 million pounds of uranium in 2010. In other words, uranium producers need to produce nearly four times their current amount just to meet estimated new demand. The new supply will have to come from somewhere, or the price of the existing supply will need to increase dramatically to clear the market. In either event, shares of the uranium mining stocks would likely increase significantly from their current levels. 

The bottom line is that even in the wake of the Japanese catastrophe uranium’s supply crunch lives on. 

Some nations have decided to take a 3 month reprieve to review the safety standards set forth in the new construction of nuclear facilities. This is a rational way to proceed as it will allay some fears of the uninformed masses, but in my opinion it is more of a political maneuver than anything. 

As for uranium stocks, current share prices are completely divorced from underlying fundamentals. Once the noise in the market created by the Japanese catastrophe is gone, stocks will once again reflect earnings - and while sales to one reactor in Japan may slump, the world's other 439 reactors will be as hungry as ever for uranium fuel. 

The tragedy in Japan, and subsequent fear in the market, has presented us with the opportunity to invest in several well-managed and fundamentally sound uranium companies. For well-informed investors with the patience to tolerate volatility for a couple of months, I think this could potentially be the single best opportunity to buy and hold uranium stocks. 

I will continue to track the nuclear/uranium story closely and report back to you here in Small Cap Investor Daily. Over the next two weeks I will go over the fundamentals of several of my favorite uranium stocks and why they should perform well over the long-term. Feel free to send in questions, or companies, that you would like me to address. My address is editorial@smallcapinvestor.com. 

As you know, I am long-term bullish on uranium fundamentals, and hope that you can join me for what should be a prosperous ride


----------



## mickqld

And heres another piece of news to fundamently drive much safer ISR Uranium type mining methods over open cut conventional and expensive mining operations. Not to mention  the flow on effects this flooding at ranger will have on long term Uranium prices.





http://www.smh.com.au/environment/radioactive-threat-looms-in-kakadu-20110415-1dhvw.html


THE operator of the Ranger uranium mine expects to take drastic action to prevent radioactive water spilling into an Aboriginal community and Kakadu's World Heritage-listed wetlands.

More than 10 billion litres of highly contaminated water is trapped on the mine site 230 kilometres south-east of Darwin after near-record rainfalls.

Energy Resources of Australia, which is controlled by Rio Tinto, will be forced to pump water from the almost over-flowing dam into its operating open-cut mine known as Pit 3 if the Kakadu area receives about 100 millimetres more rain. With three weeks of the Top End's wet season remaining, more rain is likely.

Advertisement: Story continues below This would delay for months, possibly years, the resumption of high-grade ore extraction in the pit that ERA relies on to supply 10 per cent of the world's uranium.

The company conceded this week it would be unable to resume production in the pit until the end of July at the earliest and that its ''ultimate contingency'' to protect the environment was to transfer water from the tailings dam.

But Pit 3, the only place available to put the water, already contains 3.6 billion litres of water that is sitting above high-grade ore deposits.

If forced to pump water containing heavy metals and radioactive material from the tailings dam into the pit, ERA would have to treat all of the water there as highly contaminated.

But sources at the mine said the treatment plants did not have the capacity to solve existing water management problems, despite recent upgrading of equipment.

For 30 years about 100,000 litres of contaminated water a day has been leaking from the tailings dam into fissures beneath Kakadu but an 18-month review completed last year failed to establish where the water had gone or whether it would damage the environment in the future.

Geoff Kyle, an industrial chemist and science officer working for the Mirarr Aboriginal traditional owners of Kakadu, said pumping water from the tailings dam was a last resort for ERA, which the company is trying to avoid by asking the mine's regulators to relax environmental standards.

Mr Kyle said the company had proposed ''deliberately allowing seepage into a local aquifer and has submitted detailed plans for remediating the damage it believes will be caused''.

''The height limit of the water in the tailings dam is 53 metres - it was 52.9 metres last Friday and there has been more rain since then so we believe the company will have to start pumping if we receive about 100 millimetres more rain.''

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast showers and storms in the area over the next couple of days and unpredictable wet season weather for several weeks. Since ERA announced an initial three-month suspension of production at Ranger in January, the company's shares have fallen 45 per cent to $6.58 a share, a loss in value of $1 billion.

The crisis has thrown into doubt ERA's plans to expand its operation to include an underground mine and the use of a controversial acid heap leach processing technique to process low-grade ore.

The Ranger mine has had more than 150 leaks, spills and mishaps since it opened despite opposition from Kakadu's traditional owners in 1981.

Yvonne Margarula, a Mirarr senior traditional leader, said last week that her people were ''deeply saddened'' that uranium from their land at Ranger had been exported to Japanese nuclear power companies, including the one operating the stricken Fukushima plant.

This week the ERA chairman, David Klingner, publicly ruled out his company agreeing to give up the Jabiluka mineral lease, which contains known high-grade reserves of uranium worth more than $18 billion.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

mickqld said:


> CURRENT fundamentals will always continue to drive a stocks SP and so it will be with PEN. You can throw up charts and share prices from 10 yrs ago which are completely irrelevant as PEN was an entirely different company back then. The only purpose in doing this is either being totally ill informed about the company history or blatant down ramping and malicious scaremongering.
> 
> 
> 
> Let’s be realistic about the fundamentals of the uranium market.
> 
> 
> As you know, I am long-term bullish on uranium fundamentals, and hope that you can join me for what should be a prosperous ride




While believing as you do, in uranium as a future fuel, I do not agree with ignoring sentiment and market fundamentals.

Should I find a stock selling Japanese Candles likely to make a better profit than PEN I would buy it.

PEN is challenged ATM, and as I posted 
above may  drift lower.

Love of a stock can drive people to extraordinary lengths,
 the chart never lies.

If it continues down tomorrow, I'd be out and waiting for a 
better day.

Stocks go down when there are more sellers than buyers.

They go up when there are more buyers than sellers.

ATM with PEN , it is in flux, from a charting view.

gg


----------



## gnealson

Garpal Gumnut said:


> While believing as you do, in uranium as a future fuel, I do not agree with ignoring sentiment and market fundamentals.




Agreed Garpal.  Uranium definitely has a future but sentiment has also definitely changed.

The bull market in uranium is over (31/03/2011)

Excerpts:



> Public and media sentiment is such that, rightly or wrongly, the future for nuclear power, and by extension for uranium miners, is nowhere near as rosy as it was just three months ago.






> the deciding factor for the future of uranium could be the outlook for copper prices.






> But here's the problem. BHP cannot just produce the copper and leave the uranium. The nature of the mineralisation is such that the uranium actually has to be separated from the copper.
> 
> And if the price of copper stays about $4 a pound, the potential profit might be so compelling that BHP will produce the copper, and sell the uranium 'at any price'. Even at a loss.






> Supply could surge just as demand collapses






> There is the elephant in the room that is RÃ¶ssing South in Namibia.






> This is still several years away. But think about the impact of Husab – potentially the world's second-largest uranium mine – coming into production, plus a 20% increase in world uranium supply from Olympic Dam, just as the world's nuclear industry is cutting back on its expansion. I just can't see there being much future for uranium exploration and junior mine development.






> These are the sorts of changes that bring great commodity bull markets to an end. And it's why I have changed my thinking on the sector. I have now decided I am not touching uranium juniors.






> "The worldwide backlash against the nuclear power industry is only beginning to be felt and promises to deal a devastating blow long-term to the uranium stock sector. The catastrophic events in Japan were followed by a precipitous drop in uranium share prices, which have just had their obligatory dead cat bounce.
> 
> "What lies in store is a long-term decline in the sector as new projects are deferred or cancelled, public sentiment and political pressures make it impossible to get permitting or green lighting, uranium prices retreat and juniors find it virtually impossible to get new financing to develop projects for which there will be no economic justification. This will all be reflected in a slow, inexorable decline in share prices and ultimately the failure of most uranium juniors."




The article is far from perfect, but it's a demonstration of the kind of onslaught the Uranium sector and in particular the Uranium juniors are taking right now.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> PEN became PEN in 2004, you are quoting the delisted company KNL, of which was not PEN. PEN took over the assets of KNL and KNL was renamed PEN.




Completely misses the point, which is that prior prices have no bearing on future performance.

You made the same argument to detractors when they claimed PEN falling from 10c+ down to 1.5c was some sort of sign.  As we know, PEN falling over 70% had little to do with its future performance.

Objectivity requires applying the same logic, reasoning, and standards to every stock.  You obviously have strong views on BLR so I hope you post your TA in that forum along with the FA reasons you have that distinguish it from PEN when it had fallen to 1.5 cents, or even PEN now after falling nearly 50%.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

mickqld said:


> CURRENT fundamentals will always continue to drive a stocks SP and so it will be with PEN.




But the current fundamentals are known and so presumeably priced in.  Usually forums concern themselves with the future.  To illustrate why I think the jury is still out, let's go back to the 3 Mile Island incident.  At the time it looked like Uranium demand was increasing exponentially year on year and there wasn't an immediate drop in Nuclear plant builds after 3 Mile Island but, as you can see by the chart, demand slowed and then levelled off:






So when you describe the 'current' fundamentals less than 2 months after Fukushima, I don't find it compelling at all because I'm thinking about the next few years and whether or not history could repeat.  It may be that Ross and Barber are quite profitable due to the timing, but think what affect it could potentially have for the other sites at Lance as well as Karoo.  The Hartley's report assumes that all is ok with these, but in the next few years we may find that Hartley's will be forced to reduce their valuation of PEN dramatically because there's less certainty surrounding both Lance and Karoo than there was before Fukushima.  And I'm actually giving Hartley's a lot of slack there.  As I've stated before, I disagree with the generosity of the Hartley's report whether Fukushima happened or not.

Gus' speech at arcusa seemed to assure many of the forum commentators about the future of Uranium demand, but I didn't find it compelling because to my knowledge the chart he displayed of future demand and future prices was created before Fukushima.  Housing demand in the US before the GFC was pretty rosy too with projections running off the top of the chart, but you'd have been unwise to go to a Real Estate convention in 2008, looked at a chart made before any problems were detected or listened to those who have vested interests uncritically, and then concluded that there was nothing wrong with housing.

As stated elsewhere, it takes time for big shifts in the Nuclear sector and there's already projects being built.  If you look at the chart, you can see that the same thing happened back in the 80s.  The number of reactors kept increasing after 3 Mile Island, but the rate of new reactors being built started softening almost immediately.

Those declaring all is ok right now are jumping the gun IMO, as are those who are declaring the end for the Uranium sector.  Cooler heads ought to take a wait and see approach, because while history doesn't repeat, it often rhymes.  I think we'll have much more clarity around the situation in the next 6-12 months.

Grant

PS: Chart is from here.


----------



## mickqld

Tell me the alternative base load power generation resource that is going to deliver power to the billions of people who are demanding lights, tvs, computers etc. Coal/gas, highly polluting and going to become extraordinarily expensive when govts around the world are forced to put a carbon price on top of it as our fearless leader Julia is about to do, or are we all just going to shut our eyes and pretend that Kyoto and global warming is a myth and everything is now somehow fine with carbon polluting power generation because nuclear is the devil itself. Media driven hysteria is still prevalent in everyone's eyes after Fukushima and will be for most of the year. But it will soon be forgotten by the media just as the 10's of thousands who died in one of the worlds worst NATURAL disasters.


----------



## gnealson

mickqld said:


> Tell me the alternative base load power generation resource that is going to deliver power to the billions of people who are demanding lights, tvs, computers etc. Coal/gas, highly polluting and going to become extraordinarily expensive when govts around the world are forced to put a carbon price on top of it as our fearless leader Julia is about to do, or are we all just going to shut our eyes and pretend that Kyoto and global warming is a myth and everything is now somehow fine with carbon polluting power generation because nuclear is the devil itself. Media driven hysteria is still prevalent in everyone's eyes after Fukushima and will be for most of the year. But it will soon be forgotten by the media just as the 10's of thousands who died in one of the worlds worst NATURAL disasters.




I agree that Nuclear is the best option right now.  Since when did the public or politicians always choose the best option though?  Why should they be irrational on everything else but suddenly find their heads on this issue?

Arguing for what's rational is missing the point when it comes to sentiment shifts if you ask me.

Grant


----------



## Purd2

Is there an ignore button on ASF?


----------



## hangseng

mickqld said:


> Tell me the alternative base load power generation resource that is going to deliver power to the billions of people who are demanding lights, tvs, computers etc. *Coal/gas, highly polluting and going to become extraordinarily expensive *when govts around the world are forced to put a carbon price on top of it as our fearless leader Julia is about to do, or are we all just going to shut our eyes and pretend that Kyoto and global warming is a myth and everything is now somehow fine with carbon polluting power generation because nuclear is the devil itself. Media driven hysteria is still prevalent in everyone's eyes after Fukushima and will be for most of the year. But it will soon be forgotten by the media just as the 10's of thousands who died in one of the worlds worst NATURAL disasters.




In terms of loss of life it seems coal already is by far Mick.

*Fossil fuels are far deadlier than nuclear power *

_*"There is no question," says Joseph Romm, an energy expert at the Center for American Progress in Washington DC. "Nothing is worse than fossil fuels for killing people."*_

http://www.newscientist.com/article...uels-are-far-deadlier-than-nuclear-power.html

and this....

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html



> _For every person killed by nuclear power generation, 4,000 die due to coal, adjusted for the same amount of power produced... You might very well have excellent reasons to argue for one form over another. Not the point of this post. The question is: did you know about this chart? How does it resonate with you?_





And yet we have a massive over reaction to a nuclear plant incident that wasn't responsible for all the earthquake/tsunami related deaths in Japan...

Put in a Google search "china coal mine explosion" and see how many people have been killed in China alone from Coal mine incidents. Do they stop buying coal and building coal plants and the bottom drop ouit of shares???? No, and we don't see media reporting coal related fataities,  like has just occurred at Fukishima go figure.

We see headlines like this daily:



> Power Is Restored To One Crippled Fukushima Nuclear Unit As Death Count Rises



http://oneplusonedirect.com/power-i...ima-nuclear-unit-as-death-count-rises/852804/

It is good news about the power plant restoration but lets throw in a rise in fatalities (totally unrelated to the power plant) in the same sentence as it will be a far more spectacular headline. Tripe reportintg IMO.

Scaremongering abounds and continues, however reality will eventually hit home and nuclear energy will rebound.


----------



## hangseng

Purd2 said:


> Is there an ignore button on ASF?




Yes Purd2

Click on the posters name and click on view their profile page. On the LHS in their profile it has an ignore link.


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> Scaremongering abounds and continues, however reality will eventually hit home and nuclear energy will rebound.




Media before Fukushima was scaremongering about Uranium shortages.  Now the media is scaremongering about Nuclear disasters.

The media is the same as ever, it just doesn't suit you anymore.

Grant

PS - if you want to see truly staggering death counts, look up alcohol and tobacco!  Death count means very little when it comes to public policy.


----------



## burglar

gnealson said:


> PS - if you want to see truly staggering death counts, look up alcohol and tobacco!  Death count means very little when it comes to public policy.




"Statistics show that ten out of every ten people will die"


----------



## Purd2

hangseng said:


> Yes Purd2
> 
> Click on the posters name and click on view their profile page. On the LHS in their profile it has an ignore link.





Thaks HS he is in the bin now.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

gnealson said:


> I agree that Nuclear is the best option right now.  Since when did the public or politicians always choose the best option though?  Why should they be irrational on everything else but suddenly find their heads on this issue?
> 
> Arguing for what's rational is missing the point when it comes to sentiment shifts if you ask me.
> 
> Grant




This is opinion, we need more facts as to why the sp is tanking .

gg



Purd2 said:


> Is there an ignore button on ASF?




yes



hangseng said:


> In terms of loss of life it seems coal already is by far Mick.
> 
> *Fossil fuels are far deadlier than nuclear power *
> 
> _*"There is no question," says Joseph Romm, an energy expert at the Center for American Progress in Washington DC. "Nothing is worse than fossil fuels for killing people."*_
> 
> http://www.newscientist.com/article...uels-are-far-deadlier-than-nuclear-power.html
> 
> and this....
> 
> http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _For every person killed by nuclear power generation, 4,000 die due to coal, adjusted for the same amount of power produced... You might very well have excellent reasons to argue for one form over another. Not the point of this post. The question is: did you know about this chart? How does it resonate with you?_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And yet we have a massive over reaction to a nuclear plant incident that wasn't responsible for all the earthquake/tsunami related deaths in Japan...
> 
> Put in a Google search "china coal mine explosion" and see how many people have been killed in China alone from Coal mine incidents. Do they stop buying coal and building coal plants and the bottom drop ouit of shares???? No, and we don't see media reporting coal related fataities,  like has just occurred at Fukishima go figure.
> 
> We see headlines like this daily:
> 
> 
> http://oneplusonedirect.com/power-i...ima-nuclear-unit-as-death-count-rises/852804/
> 
> It is good news about the power plant restoration but lets throw in a rise in fatalities (totally unrelated to the power plant) in the same sentence as it will be a far more spectacular headline. Tripe reportintg IMO.
> 
> Scaremongering abounds and continues, however reality will eventually hit home and nuclear energy will rebound.
Click to expand...



This is opinion, we need more facts as to why the sp is tanking .

gg



gnealson said:


> Media before Fukushima was scaremongering about Uranium shortages.  Now the media is scaremongering about Nuclear disasters.
> 
> The media is the same as ever, it just doesn't suit you anymore.
> 
> Grant
> 
> PS - if you want to see truly staggering death counts, look up alcohol and tobacco!  Death count means very little when it comes to public policy.






burglar said:


> "Statistics show that ten out of every ten people will die"




This is opinion, we need more facts as to why the sp is tanking .

Please stick to topic ASF style. Inform with facts or analysis.

gg


----------



## gnealson

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This is opinion, we need more facts as to why the sp is tanking.




I've given plenty of factual reasons Garpal.  To recap, the Uranium bull market was partly media hype and over-exhuberance (as with all bull markets), the Hartley's valuation was inflated, there was never fundamental justification for PEN at 15.5 cents this year, we're currently trading within a rational fair value range (provided by RCR), there's no reason to be sure one way or the other how the aftermath of Fukushima will play out right now, uncertainty typically results in lower prices, currently many reactors are shutdown, many more are having safety checks, some that are planned are already known to be delayed for safety reasons, we don't know if regulators will become more stringent in future but it's possible, there's been a backlash against Nuclear in the media and by the public, the spot price has fallen significantly, the term price has fallen, the uranium indexes and ETFs have fallen significantly, the 'smart money' doesn't seem interested in Uranium stocks again yet - certainly not at the prices seen pre-Fukushima, the 2013 M to M program ending is likely to have less impact than previously thought, the supply gap is also likely to be less than expected due to extra time for new supply to come online.

All these facts have been presented and hardly any have been debated except for trivial nitpicking.  So there you have it GG, that's most of the reasons why the share price is tanking.  Refer to my previous posts if you want more detail.

Grant


----------



## Miner

Purd2 said:


> Thaks HS he is in the bin now.




thanks Purd2.
It is irnoical that I have put another one in the same bin which makes two from PEN thread .
It is the testing time for all uranium stocks for different reasons.
I am still holding PEN not for anything but for its value and intrinsic strength.


----------



## hangseng

Be interesting at this level of 7.6/7.5.

It has a few times tested here and it is the PALA buy level and took 2 weeks in Dec to breakthrough this level on the way to the highs in March. Will it go down or will it find support here? I am tending to believe support has been found, however the market could do anything now so who really knows. 

PEN has defied logic many times before both SP up and down, at the moment there is no logic apart from a negative sentiment to a complete sector. A sentiment not founded on logic or rational thinking, yes GG that is my opinion and one shared by many now.

Interesting times ahead.


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> PEN has defied logic many times before both SP up and down, at the moment there is no logic apart from a negative sentiment to a complete sector. A sentiment not founded on logic or rational thinking, yes GG that is my opinion and one shared by many now.




We're trading within the value range given by RCR.  If anyone disputes that valuation, put forth your rational and logical reasons.

Grant


----------



## Boggo

Some reasonably sized orders going through on the sell side today similiar to this example at 15:46:18.
.


----------



## Country Lad

Boggo said:


> Some reasonably sized orders going through on the sell side today similiar to this example at 15:46:18.
> .




In the last 50 trades before the matchout the sell to buy ratio was 2.1.  For the day it was 1.45.

Cheers


----------



## gnealson

Positive announcement (no, I still don't own any shares/options).

The depths are pretty encouraging if I read them correctly.  10-30 metres below the surface.  Often drilling is done at an angle as well, so the vertical depths may be slightly less.



> DRILLING INTERSECTS HIGH GRADE URANIUM AND
> MOLYBDENUM AT KAROO PROJECTS
> 
> HIGHLIGHTS
> 
> * High grade intercepts from Site 22 included:
> 
> DH 06F0802RC from 78.1ft to 84.8ft intersected 6.7ft @ 3,413ppm eU3O8
> 
> DH 06F0101RC from 71.2ft to 77.1ft intersected 5.9 ft @ 3,315ppm eU3O8
> 
> DH 06F0130RC from 23.6ft to 30.7ft intersected 7.1 ft @ 1,705ppm eU3O8
> 
> * RC drilling at Site 22 returns 72 significant intersections from 152 holes
> 
> * High grade intercepts from Site 29 included:
> 
> DH QFN0034RC from 35.9ft to 42.8ft intersected 6.9 ft @ 1,363ppm eU3O8
> 
> DH QFN0109RC from 11.5ft to 24.8ft intersected 13.3 ft @ 529ppm eU3O8
> 
> DH QFN0311RC from 6.4ft to 17.2ft intersected 10.8 ft @ 520ppm eU3O8
> 
> * Site 29 returns molybdenum grade of 1,044ppm Mo
> 
> Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce further results from the Site 22 and Site 29 at the Karoo Projects in South Africa. The results to date include very high grade Uranium, particularly at Site 22 which has returned 72 significant interceptions from the 152 holes.




Grant


----------



## mickqld

Karoo expected to delineate 90 - 150mlbs U3o8 with initial JORC of approx 30mlbs in the next 6-12 months and at very shallow depths so CAPEX/ OPEX shouldn't be too diabolical. Lance still on target for mid 2012 production with current JORC of 33mlbs on 2 of 13 licenses. Translate that to the potential final delineation of Lance and 100mlbs plus is a real possibility. Currently in negotiations for more  Lance product sales. DFS and decision to mine in next month or so. Permits to mine expected by end of year or early next year. Hartleys 12 month price target 16c and rated a buy. 2014 revenues expected approx $112m with $39million profit. I think 8c is looking mighty cheap at the moment IMO.


----------



## hangseng

With sentiment is against PEN of late it seems someone believes it unwarranted and unfounded with 20,581,217 currently bought up to 8.2c. But just my opinion.

Hartleys report out with 12mth target of 16c (15.7) based only only Ross and Barber currently and exploration only at Karoo plus land and cash assets.

What will PEN be worth on further resource upgrades and all permits in hand?

Also another round of Karoo drill results with site 22 now showing up to 3,413ppm readings of uranium and only a very small area currently being drilled at this old JCI site. Also notable is that aren't drilling all of the holes, they are relogging the old JCI boreholes where possible.

Site 29 continuing good results up to 1,363ppm and also Mo of 1,044ppm.

Sentiment will change IMO (as I have stated all along throughout the domssayers comentary) and now Hartleys amongst the many other comentators stating the same.

Karoo results:
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---maokikeeth.pdf

Hartley report:
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---oochaixahn.pdf


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> With sentiment is against PEN of late it seems someone believes it unwarranted and unfounded with 20,581,217 currently bought up to 8.2c. But just my opinion.
> 
> Hartleys report out with 12mth target of 16c (15.7) based only only Ross and Barber currently and exploration only at Karoo plus land and cash assets.
> 
> What will PEN be worth on further resource upgrades and all permits in hand?
> 
> Also another round of Karoo drill results with site 22 now showing up to 3,413ppm readings of uranium and only a very small area currently being drilled at this old JCI site. Also notable is that aren't drilling all of the holes, they are relogging the old JCI boreholes where possible.
> 
> Site 29 continuing good results up to 1,363ppm and also Mo of 1,044ppm.
> 
> Sentiment will change IMO (as I have stated all along throughout the domssayers comentary) and now Hartleys amongst the many other comentators stating the same.
> 
> Karoo results:
> http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---maokikeeth.pdf
> 
> Hartley report:
> http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---oochaixahn.pdf




So you bought at 11c and also 13c 
You must be buying at 8c surely?????

If not why not???


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> So you bought at 11c and also 13c
> You must be buying at 8c surely?????
> 
> If not why not???




Because I bought at 7.6 and 7.7 if you really must know. I believed that it was at the support just above the PALA buy level of 7.5c and not going lower for that reason alone.

I would also have bought a truck load more at those prices if not for a rather expensive one off family event about to happen. 

Maybe you do tech, but I don't have a bottomless pit of funds. However as long as it stays down at these levels I will continue to buy funds permitting. Irrational negative sentiment suits me just fine.

How about some analysis tech/a? Instead of pointless questions.


----------



## gnealson

hangseng said:


> With sentiment is against PEN of late it seems someone believes it unwarranted and unfounded with 20,581,217 currently bought up to 8.2c. But just my opinion.




Yeah, but keep in mind that another 'someone' must have sold $20 million today, and besides we investors don't concern ourselves with a few pips here and there.



> Hartleys report out with 12mth target of 16c (15.7) based only only Ross and Barber currently and exploration only at Karoo plus land and cash assets.




This seems a bit misleading.  $312m is attributed to 'Exploration (Lance/Karoo)' and $174m to 'Ross/Barber @ 10%*'.

You still haven't provided us with any reason to choose Hartley's value of future exploration ($300m+) over RCR's value ($100m).  Just curious about how you came to the comclusion that Hartley's is correct and RCR is incorrect.



> What will PEN be worth on further resource upgrades and all permits in hand?




Rhetoric.  Similar to me writing: 'What will PEN be worth if a Reactor in the US suffers a meltdown?'  It's not as unlikely as most people think:

List_of_accidents_at_nuclear_power_plants (note the incidents in 1996 and 2002, all in the US)



> Also another round of Karoo drill results with site 22 now showing up to 3,413ppm readings of uranium and only a very small area currently being drilled at this old JCI site. Also notable is that aren't drilling all of the holes, they are relogging the old JCI boreholes where possible.
> 
> Site 29 continuing good results up to 1,363ppm and also Mo of 1,044ppm.




Agreed.  Very encouraging results, but the JORC rules for converting 'pounds in the ground' to dollars in the cashflow statement are there for a reason.



> Sentiment will change IMO (as I have stated all along throughout the domssayers comentary) and now Hartleys amongst the many other comentators stating the same.




Sentiment is always changing and these kinds of statements don't add much to the debate.  So I'll go one better and provide factual evidence of sentiment shift reported over-night:

Italy scraps nuclear power preparations

Another fact based comment on changing sentiment I'd make is that Hartley's last report in Feb had a 3 month price target of 16 cents.  That has now been extended to 12 months, which shows that the sentiment of Hartley's analysts has changed.

Grant


----------



## tugga

When one door closes... Italy and Germany for instance anther door opens. And that door is Russia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/19/russia-nuclear-japan-idUSLDE73I1K720110419

_Unlike Germany, which has said it will wean itself off nuclear energy, Russia has said it has no intention of curbing its drive for more nuclear power at home and for export._

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/us-nuclear-industry-idUSTRE73H0PR20110418

_While parts of the developed world might now freeze or even reduce their reliance on nuclear, emerging markets such as China, India, the Middle East and Eastern Europe will continue their nuclear drive._


----------



## gnealson

tugga said:


> When one door closes... Italy and Germany for instance anther door opens. And that door is Russia.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/19/russia-nuclear-japan-idUSLDE73I1K720110419
> 
> _Unlike Germany, which has said it will wean itself off nuclear energy, Russia has said it has no intention of curbing its drive for more nuclear power at home and for export._
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/us-nuclear-industry-idUSTRE73H0PR20110418
> 
> _While parts of the developed world might now freeze or even reduce their reliance on nuclear, emerging markets such as China, India, the Middle East and Eastern Europe will continue their nuclear drive._




Thanks for the balanced input tugga.  It's appreciated.

Grant


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

gnealson said:


> Thanks for the balanced input tugga.  It's appreciated.
> 
> Grant




Balance is in the eye of the holder , gn.

A chart from today shows some support at 0.0775 to 0.085, with increasing volume. 

PEN is hostage to greater forces than its own good news unfortunately.

If it survives tomorrow it may continue up, otherwise it will fall as I indicated above, dropping further out of it's descending triangle.

It is in the hands of the gods, not opinion nor sentiment.

gg

http://www.google.com//finance?chdn...00002&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=ASX:PEN&ntsp=0


----------



## Miner

I am unsure if some one already posted this latest report from Hartleys.

Their 12 months projection and rated as BUY 

" We have upgraded Peninsula to a Buy with a 12 month price target of 16cps".


----------



## mickqld

Germany saying it is weaning itself off nuclear power. Funny how Chancellor Angela Merkel has argued that Germany needs to keep nuclear energy for now as a "bridging technology" until it has developed more renewable power sources.
 Italy putting a moratorium on nuclear power, Only a referendum because they know it will get defeated. They are merely delaying the process and circumventing the referendum till Fukushima hysteria is forgotten.
 Neither of these will ever come to pass until a viable alternative baseload power generation resource is found which may be decades away if ever. Meanwhile we continue to choke on carbon emissions while global climate change protaganists argue. Growth of nuclear power is inevitable.


----------



## gnealson

mickqld said:


> Germany saying it is weaning itself off nuclear power. Funny how Chancellor Angela Merkel has argued that Germany needs to keep nuclear energy for now as a "bridging technology" until it has developed more renewable power sources.




Mickqld, you seem to view supply and demand as static.  Instead you should imagine them as two cars side by side.  If the demand car is accelerating faster than the supply car then supply will never catch up to demand.  All the forecasts pre-Fukushima assumed this was the case.

However, now we're seeing a slow down in demand and that could easily allow supply to gradually close the gap.  Taking stockpiles into account as well as the possibility that Megatonnes to Megawatts will live on in some other form, the previous forecasts of shortages no longer seem entirely valid to me.

Nuclear is not going away.  The existence of the nuclear industry is no more under threat now than it was in 1980 (the US still have most of the plants that were built around that time).  What's under discussion is the rate of acceleration of demand.

Germany's contribution to this acceleration was projected to be relatively small, but it's not insignificant.  There are dozens of other small nations that may also delay or halt their nuclear expansion.   So what is _possible_ is that Nuclear energy will keep moving forward just not accelerating away from demand like it was before.

We're too close to the action right now.  What's needed is the perspective that will come in 6-12 months.



> Italy putting a moratorium on nuclear power, Only a referendum because they know it will get defeated.




I thought referendums were used when the government doesn't want to pick sides on a divisive issue.  ie In Australia we had a referendum on becoming a republic.



> They are merely delaying the process and circumventing the referendum till Fukushima hysteria is forgotten.




Delays to the acceleration of demand might be all supply needs to catch up over the next decade.



> Neither of these will ever come to pass until a viable alternative baseload power generation resource is found which may be decades away if ever. Meanwhile we continue to choke on carbon emissions while global climate change protaganists argue. Growth of nuclear power is inevitable.




Agreed, but it's impossible for the world to go cold turkey on its coal addiction, so the case for Nuclear is a bit like the case for wearing a nicotine patch for an hour a day and continuing to smoke cigarettes for the other 23 hours.

Coal isn't going away any time soon and the difference between 85% coal generated power and 80% coal generated isn't that much in the bigger scheme of things.  However, that said, I agree any move in that direction would be preferable to no move at all.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A chart from today shows some support at 0.0775 to 0.085, with increasing volume.




Yes this was a resistance area on the way up and is also approximatly the 50% Fib.  It could well hold here until the DFS and, if it lives up to the hype, it could send the stock to 9-10 cents.



> PEN is hostage to greater forces than its own good news unfortunately.




Still lots of stale bulls above 10 cents I'd fancy.



> If it survives tomorrow it may continue up, otherwise it will fall as I indicated above, dropping further out of it's descending triangle.




I know what you mean, but these comments always make me chuckle.  You've narrowed it down to either going up or down!  



> It is in the hands of the gods, not opinion nor sentiment.




You mean like the Icelandic 'Masters of the Universe'?

Grant


----------



## mickqld

It is in the hands of the gods, not opinion nor sentiment. 

You mean like the Icelandic 'Masters of the Universe'?

LOL I would have thought the share price was more in the hands of world opinion and sentiment rather than Thor, Zeus or Olympus. :fan


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

mickqld said:


> It is in the hands of the gods, not opinion nor sentiment.
> 
> You mean like the Icelandic 'Masters of the Universe'?
> 
> LOL I would have thought the share price was more in the hands of world opinion and sentiment rather than Thor, Zeus or Olympus. :fan




Mock as you will.

Price and volume never lie.

And twinging them both in to the RSI in the upper window of the attached chart makes me worry for your fortune mick.

The RSI is the mojo of a stock should you be unacquainted with the term.

PEN is not a picture of a stock that the Gumnut Family Trust would touch with a bargepole.

This is not to say that others may have more as yet undisclosed information on PEN, that will be shown in the charts as time passes.

gg


----------



## ColB

Boggo said:


> Some reasonably sized orders going through on the sell side today similiar to this example at 15:46:18.
> .




What a difference a day makes!  If these 'seller/s' running for the door to bail at 0.075c had sold a day later they would have been 7.5 to 10% better off.


----------



## hangseng

Design benefits to PEN at Lance.

In the upcoming DFS I expect to see something that Lyntec have  included in the final plant design. A feature that separates the high opex/capex producers that can only be achieved via ISR processes.

A satellite plant that will capture the uranium using resin beads which is then transported to the main "central processing" (ring a bell) facility at Ross.

For those not familiar with design optimisation, the purpose of the DFS, this is the stage the designers have an opportunity to reduce both capex and opex by design. Lyntek have previously done just this in previous designs and PEN has mentioned I am almost certain they intend the same at Lance. This little master stroke of design expertise enables PEN to reduce capex significantly by onlly having a single centralised processing plant, without need to duplicate plants.

Lance is a vast area and this will enable PEN to place remote Ion Exchange Units for uranium removal and then transport to the central processing plant.

This will be a significant benefit to PEN and will make the all important bottom line (nett profit) even better. This along with the Permit to Toll they have applied for will provide benefits others could only wish for. In South Australia they wanted to use this at the Honeymoon mine, but not to be.

*Remote Ion Exchange Unit (IEU):*
Photos courtesy of: http://www.uraniumproducersamerica.com/situ.html
Worth a look if not familiar with ISR processing.


----------



## spudman

Excellent post HS, any chance you could post the same on you know where?


----------



## barney

gnealson said:


> However, now we're seeing a slow down in *demand* and that could easily allow *supply* to gradually close the gap.  Taking stockpiles into account as well as the possibility that Megatonnes to Megawatts will live on in some other form, the previous forecasts of shortages no longer seem entirely valid to me.




I'm not so sure about that projection Grant.

It will be interesting to see the effect of the Megatonnes to Megawatts programme finishing in 2013

In an attempt to make up the shortfall, last month *USEC*(US major supplier of U) signed a multi-year contract with *TENEX* (Russian supplier to USEC) for the 10-year supply of low enriched uranium (LEU) beginning in 2013 

But ..........  until 2015, the level supplied to USEC will be* less than half *the  level currently supplied under the Megatons to Megawatts program.

And the big question regarding Supply .....  the limitations on imports of Russian enriched uranium into the United States means that  *USEC* will be delivering most of the enriched uranium *to customers outside of the United States*.

Companies who are well positioned to *provide  Uranium to the US utilities *at 2013 onwards will be in the box seat to fill the Supply void.

I wonder which Company might fit that profile?


----------



## Megacents

Been a way for a while and the games are still on 

PEN has suffered from the effects of Japan, no question about that.

What needs to be taken into consideration is that you believe it (PEN) has a future or you do not. Pretty simple stuff I reckon.

I am holding for the eventual change in SP. I also believe PEN is in the midst of looking to  use some of that money for another ISR play. I have no idea but this is what I am reading between the lines. 

There are some depressed SPs for uranium players, this I feel is the time to take the bull by the horns and go for some leases, tenements, permits and fire sales around?

I wonder when we will read of more land acquisitions in the Wyoming permits. I am sure the land Manger is Fitzsimmons LLC (Land team) is been hard at work.

Interesting times ahead.


----------



## gnealson

barney said:


> Companies who are well positioned to *provide  Uranium to the US utilities *at 2013 onwards will be in the box seat to fill the Supply void.




Of course, there's a transportation cost advantage and also an advantage in terms of security of supply.  Price is what matters though, not the seating arrangements.  PEN got a good price for 8% of its Uranium when sentiment was at a peak.  The big challenge is to secure a similar price for the other 92% post-Fukushima.

When you read about the supply gap, you're reading about a gap in *world* supply with projections out to 2020 - 2050.  So it doesn't really matter where the Russian supply goes, it will still be meeting projected *world* demand.  If the Russians use it to supply their own reactors then that means Russian utilities don't need to compete for supplies in world markets, and that will translate into less demand and lower prices than would otherwise occur.  Most of the modelling assumes the Russian supply evaporates into thin air.  It doesn't appear to be the case (definitely not in 2013), so the terrifying gap that bulls have been referring to since 2001 probably won't eventuate.

For Uranium bulls, 2013 is going to be very disappointing I'd say.  Reminds me of all the anticipation for the Y2K bug.  The media prophesied planes falling out of the sky, but it was pretty much business as usual despite a few minor disruptions.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

Megacents said:


> What needs to be taken into consideration is that you believe it (PEN) has a future or you do not. Pretty simple stuff I reckon.




I don't think there's any question that PEN has some sort of future.  The debate revolves around what kind of future and how certain it is.  If I buy today and in 2013 the share price has barely budged, I'm not going to be singing praises about how I was correct that PEN had 'a future'.  Instead, I'll be disappointed that I didn't correctly evaluate how that future would really impact the bottom line of the company.

Grant


----------



## Miner

For PEN follower I am attaching two links

http://www.infomine.com/Investment/HistoricalCharts/ShowCharts.asp?c=uranium as published in PEN website today

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/9379 - this is an extract from Energy Report and quoted Russian President Medvedev: Russia's Energy Future Nuclear
 Source: The Voice of Russia  04/25/2011

IMO Russian voice with a large number of nuclear reactors will assist to address the nervousness of nuclear industry and hence PEN's future movement along with other uranium hopefuls/ producers

DYOR


----------



## gnealson

Miner said:


> http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/9379 - this is an extract from Energy Report and quoted Russian President Medvedev: Russia's Energy Future Nuclear
> Source: The Voice of Russia  04/25/2011
> 
> DYOR




In case you missed it, here's some more of Medvedev's recent comments.... Russia calls for changes to nuclear safety rules

Grant


----------



## hangseng

Thanks for the information miner.

The tide will turn back in our favour eventually and logic will prevail. 

In fact maybe today it has already commenced, the trading in PEN was telling with some very large buy orders from 8.2 through to 8.6. Until that commenced volume was rather low, it ended up much higher from around 5m and going to over 32m.

We know positive imminent announcements are coming but what if this is just more that that.

With the latest situation in Namibia would you like to be a holder of mining stocks operating there? I know I definitely wouldn't, as the risk just incresed significantly. What if a shift in sentiment away from these stocks into lower risk stocks such as PEN was to occur? Just a thought...

*Govt Pockets All Rights to Mine Uranium*
http://allafrica.com/stories/201104210360.html


----------



## hangseng

This is what I was talking about. Note the volumes in the 8.4 plus ranges and most late in the session today.

Credit to abu from afar:


----------



## gnealson

hangseng]In fact maybe today it has already commenced said:


> This is what I was talking about. Note the volumes in the 8.4 plus ranges and most late in the session today.




For someone who claims to be an investor and actually ridicules and berates traders for worrying about 'a few pips', you sure do look like one yourself sometimes.

On top of posting like a trader you actually refuse to enter into any meaningful FA discussions.  For instance, you've not yet explained why you feel that the Hartley's valuation is more accurate than the RCR valuation.

Grant


----------



## gnealson

27 April 2011

Indian protestors willing to lose their lives and storm a police station to prevent a Nuclear plant going ahead

Grant


----------



## barney

gnealson said:


> 27 April 2011
> 
> Indian protestors willing to lose their lives and storm a police station to prevent a Nuclear plant going ahead
> 
> Grant




Nothing like a bit of sensationalism to wet the anti-nuclear appetite ....... 

The Nuclear plant in question has been operating for 16 years longer than its proposed time frame, *without incident*. ......

But the BBC needs to inform us that a local farmer has indicated he and his comrades would rather die than let more nuclear reactors be built in the area.

As it has eventuated .... *they are more likely to be injured or killed by the local police than be hurt by the nuclear reactors *that provide the power to their land ....... 

Journalism can be extremely informative and beneficial to society at times ..... Unfortunately it can also be incredibly misused


----------



## Miner

Good morning PEN enthusiastics

Sharing the Quarterly report from PEN published this morning in ASX.

We all heard about the increased resources, permit approval on positive side and nuclear cynism around some section of the world on negative side.

Notwithstanding it is only matter of time for us to recognise the strength of PEN all the more, what intrigued me in the report about location of power resources in Wyoming. 

There are some good locations for power within PEN easy reach compared to rest of the industries in Wyoming. That is an awesome infrastructure advantage for a power intensive uranium extraction process.

Fundamentally there are so many technical reasons for this process and product making me very encouraged with PEN all the more.

Good luck to you all  and please do not forget to DYOR and look into your investment strategy.


----------



## gnealson

barney said:


> Journalism can be extremely informative and beneficial to society at times ..... Unfortunately it can also be incredibly misused




It's like we read a different article, so here's some key quotes:



> A leading campaigner against a massive nuclear power plant in India has pledged that villagers are ready to sacrifice their lives in order to prevent a repeat of Japan's nuclear disaster.






> The Nuclear Power Corporation of India, which runs the country's civil reactors, has claimed the Jaitapur site lies in earthquake Zone 3. The risk scale runs from 1 to 5 - with Zone 5 denoting severe risk.
> 
> But the BBC has been told by a leading expert on the geology of Maharashtra that the planned nuclear site falls into an area of higher risk - Zone 4.






> "Evidence shows…even higher magnitude earthquake can happen in this area," says Dr Prabhu.
> 
> Nuclear risk
> 
> The line taken by the geologist is supported by a former safety regulator for the nuclear power industry in India.
> Continue reading the main story
> “Start Quote
> 
> The whole of Japan is sitting on seismic Zone 5",”
> 
> End Quote S K Malhotra Head of Public Awareness, Department of Atomic Energy
> 
> Dr A Gopalkrishnan, who chaired the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board in the mid 1990s, says that for the sake of public protection, experts who judge the nuclear site to be in the more risky Zone 4 should be given the benefit of the doubt.






> One local leader at Tarapur says that the two older units, dating from 1969, and supplied by the American engineering giant, General Electric, have already run for 16 years longer than their design lives.
> 
> "I think it should be shut down," said Jitendra Raul, leader of Tarapur Progress Community. "Should we wait till the time there is some big incident or some big blast inside the power plant?"
> 
> Close reactors
> 
> Former nuclear safety regulator Dr A. Gopalkrishnan revealed that he had been told in 1995 by American nuclear authorities that India would be well advised to close the reactors.
> Continue reading the main story
> “Start Quote
> 
> Now after this Fukushima accident we are reviewing the safety of all our plants."”
> 
> End Quote S.S. Bajaj, Chairman India's Atomic Energy Regulatory Board
> 
> "Even in 1995," says Dr Gopalkrishnan, " I have been advised by…the US Dept of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission it'll be safer to shut down the Tarapur 1 and 2 reactors."
> 
> "And I have conveyed this message back to the government of India but the government decided to ignore that at that time."
> 
> However the current chairman of India's Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, S.S. Bajaj, says that safety upgrades were made to the reactors about 10 years ago, to lower the risks in case of a total loss of power or "station blackout".
> 
> Now, he says, following the nuclear crisis in Japan, a fresh and wide-ranging look at safety in India is under way.




To me the above is significant because it shows:

1) The Indian Government may back Nuclear, but that does not mean the public does.
2) Public sentiment is already driving much more stringent safety reviews
3) India has old Reactors that it was advised to shut down in 1995.  It seems more likely that they will be shut down now
4) India has several reactors in Earthquake zones that are now considered unsafe by experts
5) Old reactors in unsafe Earthquake zones are a perfect recipe for another Nuclear emergency.

So Barney, the way I see it, the article has a bit more depth than you implied.  We've previously been told that the Indian Nuclear programme (along with China and Russia) are unchanged, but it's clear that there's quite a lot going on under the surface.

Once again, I'd remind people that this is not an issue of what's rational.  It was irrational for the Nuclear program to stop in the 80s, but it did anyway.  So those who are ignoring the under-currents of public sentiment are likely to be caught out.

Grant


----------



## tech/a

These guys are master marketers.
They know what drives sentiment and how the "informed" react.
Constant announcements with ONE aim.
Lots of sizzle buying in my not so humble opinion.

When they put up a brokers report thats really pumping the action!!
See bottom of page!!

Positive pumping pulls the punters like bees to a honey pot.

Click to expand


----------



## hangseng

Miner said:


> Good morning PEN enthusiastics
> 
> Sharing the Quarterly report from PEN published this morning in ASX.
> 
> We all heard about the increased resources, permit approval on positive side and nuclear cynism around some section of the world on negative side.
> 
> Notwithstanding it is only matter of time for us to recognise the strength of PEN all the more, what intrigued me in the report about location of power resources in Wyoming.
> 
> There are some good locations for power within PEN easy reach compared to rest of the industries in Wyoming. That is an awesome infrastructure advantage for a power intensive uranium extraction process.
> 
> Fundamentally there are so many technical reasons for this process and product making me very encouraged with PEN all the more.
> 
> Good luck to you all  and please do not forget to DYOR and look into your investment strategy.




I share your enthusiasm miner.

In a time of global difficulty for many mining juniors PEN just keeps going from strength the strength. Despite the efforts of naysayers with PEN on various forums over the last few years the positives just keep mounting up.

This is as expected, another positive report on PEN's activities.

As you say tech/a, bees to a honey pot and clearly there are many attracted to this sweet morsel once again.

All of the above my very biassed personal opinion based on over 2 years of consistent positive announcements and clearly supported by this great little companies obvious positive development as stated by the company they would achieve.

It has been a long wait, however I expect a great year ahead now.


----------



## Megacents

I am slightly confused with some of the postings.

Is there some personal connection between posters?


Like I said if you like PEN's story you trade it. If you are concerned with issues in the sector then please dyor.


Very nice quarterly report this morning. Confirmation of existing drill data from Karoo.

Further results from Wyoming and in general a very productive quarter.

Oh by the way aprox 30M on hand.

Yesterday green on a red ASX day, I think that speaks volumes.

Good luck to holders and potential holders.


----------



## madjohn

don`t worry too much just listen to HS-he delivers the goods!Thanks HS for your inputs very much appreciated-as for the Indian news??India will go ahead.


----------



## hangseng

Megacents said:


> I am slightly confused with some of the postings.
> 
> Is there some personal connection between posters?
> 
> 
> Like I said if you like PEN's story you trade it. If you are concerned with issues in the sector then please dyor.
> 
> 
> Very nice quarterly report this morning. Confirmation of existing drill data from Karoo.
> 
> Further results from Wyoming and in general a very productive quarter.
> 
> Oh by the way aprox 30M on hand.
> 
> Yesterday green on a red ASX day, I think that speaks volumes.
> 
> Good luck to holders and potential holders.




Just for the record (again) Megacents.

Through ASF and elsewhere I now regard miner, Purd2, mickqld, Kash buk, bukka, svengali et al here as friends. Our only connection is sharing information via the internet and email, with the exception of one who is a very close personal friend I have known since a young boy.

Not sure if that is what you meant but I thought I would just openly place that up.


----------



## anthndp

hangseng said:


> As you say tech/a, bees to a honey pot and clearly there are many attracted to this sweet morsel once again.




"Sweet morsel" Over 45% down from it's 52 week high, wow hate to think what you consider sour.

Looks like the beekeeper arrived at 2pm to clean up the mess!!!

I'm guessing there is no need to post pretty pictures or tech charts today?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> Just for the record (again) Megacents.
> 
> Through ASF and elsewhere I now regard miner, Purd2, mickqld, Kash buk, bukka, svengali et al here as friends. Our only connection is sharing information via the internet and email, with the exception of one who is a very close personal friend I have known since a young boy.
> 
> Not sure if that is what you meant but I thought I would just openly place that up.




May I be a charting friend, I do like having friends as you do.

gg





tech/a said:


> These guys are master marketers.
> They know what drives sentiment and how the "informed" react.
> Constant announcements with ONE aim.
> Lots of sizzle buying in my not so humble opinion.
> 
> When they put up a brokers report thats really pumping the action!!
> See bottom of page!!
> 
> Positive pumping pulls the punters like bees to a honey pot.
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> View attachment 42606




It would appear that the reports are strangely collated in announcement date. May I be your friend too?

gg


----------



## hangseng

anthndp said:


> "Sweet morsel" Over 45% down from it's 52 week high, wow hate to think what you consider sour.
> 
> Looks like the beekeeper arrived at 2pm to clean up the mess!!!
> 
> I'm guessing there is no need to post pretty pictures or tech charts today?




At the time of posting that is exactly what it was.

Your Johnny come lately sarcasm does you no favours. So pray tell you knew a sell off was going to happen today, and not only on PEN? I think not...

Not even the fortune telling chart wizards could have, nor did they. Just more of the same old childish sarcastic remarks.


----------



## tech/a

Technically nothing has changed for PEN
Of the last 25 days PEN has had 20 flat days (despite the large compressor running pumping its heart out) or down and 5 up.
Not exactly the sort of strength this black duck would get interested in.

*Volumes*
Have remained un impressive until today clearly selling off into early "Exuberance"
The day completing on a classic pivot point reversal.
Not good I'm afraid for PEN pundits.
So Ive seen topping up at 11c and 13 c and now 7.6/7c
Excellent.

*Click to expand*


----------



## anthndp

hangseng said:


> So pray tell you knew a sell off was going to happen today, and not only on PEN? I think not...




Look mate when i checked the basic stock price at work, it was in negative, got home seen u pumping it up telling everyone about honey then nothing, so i checked the chart, you jumped the gun again, i'm still waiting to see how that "important" champagne welding price changing announcment on the 14th has done.
This stock has been in sell off for almost 2 months now.
If your going to come on a public forum, on a PUBLIC thread, there's no HS PEN thread here, then boost about the stock then your leaving yourself open for criticism.
If it's ok for you to come on here pre 1pm tell everyone how the corner may have changed, it's equally ok for someone to come on afterwards and tell you that the change hasn't happened, even if it's there 3rd post or 500th post.
Quarterly Activity reports are common, infact every quarter (how's that for sarcasm) hey two of my stocks released them today, do i feel the need to go on their thread and tell everyone, i don't have too as they are great money makers, i'll let the company do the talking for me especially when you have just sold a project to one off the world biggest miners. I can see that special dividend coming, "special dividend" whats that some PEN holders might say.

BTW 461 stocks posted a positive day which according to another PEN holder that speaks volumes.


----------



## anthndp

hangseng said:


> At the time of posting that is exactly what it was.




So when the price is going up it's because it's such a great company, but when the price goes down it's because of the overall market?


----------



## bathuu

I still see heaps of people on the sale side that seems ready to press the price down in any chance


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

There is a hotcopper feeling about this thread.

Never a good sign for a stock, if you are on the long side.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There is a hotcopper feeling about this thread.
> 
> Never a good sign for a stock, if you are on the long side.
> 
> gg




What has that got to do with anything stock related, or "ASF style"?



> Originally Posted by Garpal Gumnut
> 
> Please stick to topic ASF style. Inform with facts or analysis.




A shame you can't hold to the same, the posts here simply attacking posters and constant derogatory remarks, rather than stock related is definitely not the "ASF style" I have become accustomed to here.

anthndp welcome to ignore, you will be in good company.

461 stocks posted gains...... What of the other 927? In particular the uranium sector. You also ignore the selloff of the uranium market leader EXT due to a Namibian Govt situation, of which absolutely nothing to do with PEN and some other stocks. However there is little doubt irrational people sold due to this.

I remain very positive based on facts, being company activities and fundamental performance. Short term trading fluctuations mean little to me.

Yes this is a public forum, however I see nothing that suggests it is a place where you post to personally attack others or post in a derogatory manner. However clearly it is rapidly going down that unfortunate path.


----------



## mickqld

Another counter to the constant battering PEN is getting from naysayers. We can play this tennis match as long is it takes at the end of the day PEN has quality/quantity resource,cheap to extract,quality management,market to sell to, permits pending and finance to get to production. It will be in production some time next year and its SP will be higher than it is now meaning if you want to make money on a stock this one will make you some. Why these white knights who hold no stock continue to have negative views on the stock is beyond me. I certainly dont waste my time talking down stocks I dont own.

http://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/uranium-prices-set-to-recover.htm


Uranium prices set to recover 

Brendan Ryan | Tue, 26 Apr 2011 15:08

[miningmx.com] -- THE fallout from Japan's nuclear crisis will hit global demand for uranium, but will also negatively affect supply and the uranium market will remain in deficit from 2011 up until 2020.
That's according to RBC Capital Markets analysts Adam Schatzker and H Fraser Phillips who " in a recently published research report " predicted uranium prices would start to recover in the second half of 2011.
They said: "Based on our forecast of available uranium supplies (mine sourced and non-mine sourced) we do not think that there is sufficient uranium to cover the needs of 2018 to 2020, and certainly not beyond that time frame. 
"As a result we expect that, at some point in the next 12 to 18 months, utilities will begin to see an increasingly tight long-term contract market to the point where there is all but no supply availability. This, in our view, will be the stimulus that will cause the uranium price to recover."
The bulk of the world's uranium supply is purchased by power utilities on long-term contracts, and not on the spot market. 
The analysts said: "The long-term price indicator has remained relatively robust currently $72 per pound and we anticipate it will continue to outperform the spot market for the next 24 months.
"However, we do not think the current long-term price properly reflects the long-term fundamentals of the uranium industry."
The analysts said they had reduced their forecast on total uranium demand between 2011 and 2020 by about 125 million pounds from their previous estimate published on March 9.
But they have also dropped their forecast on total supply over this period by 49 million pounds, and predict the deficit between uranium demand and supply will be more than 80 million pounds by 2020. 
They said: "We believe that the new supplies needed to fill the growing deficit will require uranium prices higher than $80/lb in order to provide the incentive to explore for, finance and develop new projects."
The spot price of uranium fell rapidly from around $68/lb when the earthquake struck Fukushima to bottom at $49.29/lb on March 16, from where it has recovered to current levels just under $60/lb. 
The analysts said: "Once the panic sellers stopped placing material into the spot market, the underlying tightness again dominated and the uranium price began to rise again."
While noting the negative reaction from various countries in terms of shelved or delayed nuclear projects, the analysts' overall assessment was that "the current leading nuclear builders - China, Russia, India, South Korea " are unlikely to change their long-term plans despite the magnitude of the tragedy in Japan's.
On the supply side, the analysts highlighted the likely impact of the Fukushima disaster on Australia, which has some of the best potential for the development of large new uranium projects. 
They said: "In the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster we think that the level of acceptance for new uranium projects in Australia is significantly lower than it was before.
"In our view, the potential for delays or project cancellations is significant and may have a marked impact on the outlook for uranium supply growth in this decade and the next."
The analysts also pointed to shortfalls in anticipated supply caused by problems with developing uranium projects.
They said: "Looking back at our supply forecasts from mid-2006 to present, we have observed a very clear pattern; the expected supply from 2006 to 2010 has dropped dramatically.
"Most of these shortfalls have been driven by either problems with existing operations or delays in new mine production, with an emphasis on the latter.
"We do not see any reason why the problems that plagued new supply between 2006 and 2009 should disappear; rather, we think there is a good chance that future supply forecasts will again disappoint. We think this fact needs to be reflected in the current uranium price and, in our view, it is not."
The analysts said: "We believe that most uranium producers have sold the vast majority of their production through to at least 2016. Yet there remains a substantial portion of demand uncovered (30% to 40%) between 2016 and 2019. 
Some of the newer entrants to the producer category such as Paladin, Denison and Uranium One likely have material available for contracting in those years but, according to our estimates, they will not have enough to satisfy the forecast demand. 
"We think that in late 2011 utility requests for contracted material in 2016 and beyond will be met with fewer and fewer offers, and then perhaps none. 
"We believe it is this sequence of events that will provide a significant stimulus to both the spot and term prices and bring them to a level that is sufficient to incentivise new exploration, development and, eventually, production."


----------



## madjohn

Think it has to do with HS-they know how highly regarded his post is so some just like to chop it down- so must be envious of HS so want to gain attention!!Attention seeking-or either broke ,unemployed and nothing to do??hahaha! Or VERY CARING PEOPLE LOOKING AFTER OUR INTEREST??

let them go on cos most know what they are -one got suspended after 1 week membership talking the same stuff in another forum.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Dont have a problem holding PEN just a matter of getting it set at a good price (If your late on the action like I am.)
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> View attachment 41744




My interest in this stock goes back to here.
My comments are a follow up to those who remain un affected by the media machine.

Fact is it ISNT in production and Permits are PENDING.
If the stock is worth buying it will be as clear as this post was to sell.


----------



## madjohn

I like to buy a good company at a cheap price-no good for me if the price is high and the company is good.


----------



## madjohn

Alabama nuclear plant outlasts natural disaster

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content by VentureBeat

By Matthew Lynley at VentureBeat

Thu Apr 28, 2011 4:11pm EDT

An Alabama-based nuclear power plant with similar specifications to the Fukushima Daiichi plant that was ravaged by an earthquake in Japan outlasted catastrophic weather in the southeast and has shut down without incident.

Diesel engines, the second line of defense in a long line of safety precautions at the Brown’s Ferry plant, were not disabled by the severe weather. The reactors kicked in and provided emergency power to the plant after its main power lines were cut.

Dozens of tornadoes ripped through the midwest and southeast yesterday, killing 248 people and dealing leveling entire neighborhoods. The storms spawned the deadliest outbreak of tornadoes in nearly 40 years, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The situation at the Browns Ferry plant illustrates the effectiveness of standard nuclear safety features in severe weather. Most nuclear reactors will never face the tragic combination of circumstances that struck Fukushima.

Despite the Fukushima situation, the US government plans to continue funding nuclear power projects as part of a push to promote energy that is cleaner than that produced by fossil-fuel-burning plants. President Barack Obama and U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu have also lobbied hard to bring nuclear power to the forefront as a potential alternative to fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.

[Photo: Argonne National Laboratory]

Tags: clean energy, clean technology, fossil fuels, nuclear power


----------



## Billyb

Price should always follow fundamentals long term.
If fundamentals remain good, then buying this stock can certainly fit well into the portfolio of a long-term investor who can accept some moderate risk. 

But it's still a speculative stock IMO just because of the fact that it's a junior and because of the recent sentiment surrounding uranium stocks.

Obviously at the moment it's very risky to buy PEN if you are not investing long term or if you are buying on technical indicators.

We have two different class of investors/traders here with different investing/trading goals debating here. Clearly there will be opposing opinions, especially when we put emotions into the mix.

I think that pretty much sums it up. 

My 2 cents. I still hold PEN.


----------



## tech/a

> We have two different class of investors/traders here with different investing/trading goals debating here. Clearly there will be opposing opinions, especially when we put emotions into the mix.




Billy I actually agree with you.

Our learned Fundamentalists have no other option but to take a longterm view.
My technical input is I hope there for those who do not wish to take such a volatile trade/investment option. I have also been instrumental in pointing out the consequences of such volatility --- some trades decimated by 50% on open profit---.
A cardinal sin for a trader!---an occupational hazard for some Fundamentalists.

Ill continue to follow as there will be 
low risk opportunity to take this trade and profit in the future (I may miss it being away for a couple of months---a traders occupational hazard!) without wild volatility.


----------



## madjohn

> *Nuclear Future Is Now Because That’s Where Profit Is for Exelon: Real M&A*
> By Tara Lachapelle, Rita Nazareth and Jim Polson - Apr 29, 2011 3:02 PM GMT+1000
> 
> Exelon Corp. (EXC) is trying to pull off its largest takeover by acquiring more nuclear power plants -- less than two months after the industry’s worst disaster since Chernobyl.
> 
> The biggest U.S. operator of nuclear power facilities agreed to purchase Constellation Energy Group Inc. (CEG) of Baltimore for about $7.9 billion in stock, giving the Chicago-based company stakes in five more reactors. Including net debt, the transaction would be Exelon’s first acquisition over $1 billion since 2002 after three deals fell apart in the past seven years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
> 
> While Exelon faces its biggest decline in earnings in a decade next year as higher-priced power contracts that it sold expire, Constellation’s nuclear assets will help Exelon boost profitability as environmental regulations increase costs for energy producers that own coal plants, according to Manulife Asset Management U.S. LLC’s Greg Phelps. The takeover, which will mark the end of John Rowe’s 11-year stint as Exelon’s chief executive officer, comes as the partial meltdown of Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant in March prompts rivals such as NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) to halt plans to build new reactors.




More: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...at-s-where-profit-is-for-exelon-real-m-a.html


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Billy I actually agree with you.
> 
> Our learned Fundamentalists have no other option but to take a longterm view.
> My technical input is I hope there for those who do not wish to take such a volatile trade/investment option. I have also been instrumental in pointing out the consequences of such volatility --- some trades decimated by 50% on open profit---.
> A cardinal sin for a trader!---an occupational hazard for some Fundamentalists.
> 
> Ill continue to follow as there will be*
> low risk opportunity to take this trade and profit in the future (I may miss it being away for a couple of months---a traders occupational hazard!) without wild volatility.




tech/a one of your better posts, and it may surprise you I generally agree with you, apart from one aspect.

"Our learned Fundamentalists have no other option but to take a longterm view."

In my case I could sell PEN on monday for a rather handsome profit. Also in my case, as I can't speak for others, I have many options open to me. This due to the manner I managed my investment into a very profitable position over time.

The massive swings in PEN of late are obviously providing great short term trade opportunities, for those with quick thinking predictive skills. I don't possess such a skill but would love to see any T/A *IN ADVANCE* of these massive swings and I to will take advantage.

I have never seen this skill here or elsewhere, but it would be interesting to see such an outstanding use of T/A. Always on the look out for exceptional opportunities and this if proven would provide something quite special for ASF members.

Imagine if we could have been told the Tsunami was happening tomorrow and the sp would go from 13 to 5.6 and then bounce to 10.5 and back to 8 and then 9.3 to 8.1 in a day? We would all be outstandingly wealthy and forever greatful.

On a serious note though, I do like seeing all factual fundamental views and good T/A. All aids in making sound investment and trading decisions.

For now I await the next round of critical announcements over the next couple of weeks.


----------



## tech/a

> I don't possess such a skill but would love to see any *T/A IN ADVANCE* of these massive swings and I to will take advantage.




Hell how more advanced can you get than that posted here well in advance.
You didn't take advantage of it because you didn't believe the analysis---have a re read--- apparently I was dreaming!

*Post #1004*



> I have many options open to me. This due to the manner I managed my investment into a very profitable position over time.




Your happy with your investments---fine--I think you could have handled PEN way better.---but your in it for the long haul.


----------



## skyQuake

This is turning into the old FMG thread corn:


----------



## hangseng

Sorry tech/a yws I must have mised your Tsunami forecast. But I I am sure you would like to remind us all of how you did this, I for one can't recall you doing so, nor do I recall you picking all of those swings I mentioned.

Yes I am very happy with my investment decision, with all of the now associted taxation benefits that would otherwise not been achieved with a pure trading means.

My SMSF accountant and auditor is also astonished at what has been achieved in comparison with both the market general and funds. So I would hazard a guess I am doing just fine.


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> Sorry tech/a yws I must have mised your Tsunami forecast. But I I am sure you would like to remind us all of how you did this, I for one can't recall you doing so, nor do I recall you picking all of those swings I mentioned.
> 
> Yes I am very happy with my investment decision, with all of the now associted taxation benefits that would otherwise not been achieved with a pure trading means.
> 
> My SMSF accountant and auditor is also astonished at what has been achieved in comparison with both the market general and funds. So I would hazard a guess I am doing just fine.





Thats a really interesting post.

You actually need there to be a Fundamental reason for every occurrence.
Where as I only need weakness to be apparent or strength----supply or demand.
You NEED a fundamental reason for either to be confirmed. Often way way too late
if ever seen---many times drops/rises without explanation.

Explains a lot.


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Where as I only need weakness to be apparent or strength----supply or demand.
> You NEED a fundamental reason for either to be confirmed. Often way way too late
> if ever seen---many times drops/rises without explanation.




The thread on HST is a prime example of what you are trying to convey tech/a.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10119&page=2&highlight=hst


----------



## tech/a

I often go on about placing yourself *IN FRONT* of opportunity and waiting for it to hit you.

A technically weak stock will get hammered by* ANY* negative news.
PEN constantly releases positive spin and that does have an impact on investors.
But I'm afraid Tsunami's trump company announcements and so does Inflation figures.

On the flip side if your riding opportunity and you can see weakness appearing in your opportunistic trade/s I think it would be wise to take notice of that weakness and its strength *IN FRONT* of any unknown fundamental fragility.
PEN isn't alone in technical fragility.

If we look at the market as to where it has been and to where it is going I'm sure I'm not alone in erring to the very cautious.
There are times to bet the house----this isn't (in my view) one of them---regardless of stock!

Already we are seeing a Tough budget (threatened to be released) hammering the index
Try to imagine a swift downturn in Europe and /or the US added to our situation!!---best get in front of it as early as you can.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Some sense at last re PEN.

There are more sellers than buyers atm, and the share price has not risen as a result.

Once there are more buyers than sellers, with volume,  it will advance.

Simple.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some sense at last re PEN.
> 
> There are more sellers than buyers atm, and the share price has not risen as a result.
> 
> Once there are more buyers than sellers, with volume,  it will advance.
> 
> Simple.
> 
> gg





Brilliance gg

Thought provoking brilliance that covers every stock on the ASX and yet it draws the need to be posted on PEN.


----------



## So_Cynical

tech/a said:


> Hell how more advanced can you get than that posted here well in advance.
> You didn't take advantage of it because you didn't believe the analysis---have a re read--- apparently I was dreaming!
> 
> *Post #1004*




Post 1004 below (i had to look ) i cant see any grand predictions tech :dunno: all i see is the usually "could go either way" analysis that charty types seem to always come up with.



tech/a said:


> (7th-March-2011) Dont have a problem holding PEN just a matter of getting it set at a good price (If your late on the action like I am.)
> 
> Click to expand



~


----------



## skyQuake

tech got stopped out at 13 a bit earlier, and posted gtfo if it gets below 12.5.
Seems fairly clear

Heaven forbid any bearish price targets in a bull thread!

-------------------------------



barney said:


> PEN has had some high volume trading days, but I don't recall ever seeing it on the Commsec most bought list?
> 
> CommSec Most Popular Stocks
> 
> *Sells*
> 
> NAB
> CBA
> NCM
> AXA
> QBE
> MYR
> 
> *Buys*
> 
> ANZ
> TLS
> BHP
> WES
> RIO
> *PEN*




Might be a lesson here: When something gets into commsecs top buys (excluding asx50s) get outttt!


----------



## indeck

Definitely sell PEN when it's in the top buy list because it means a tsunami is coming


----------



## anthndp

indeck said:


> Definitely sell PEN when it's in the top buy list because it means a tsunami is coming




That's definately going to put you on someone's ignore list. Are you scared??

Here is a bit from Wise-owl, i don't like posting stuff from their website but this should clear up the fact that a reversal in the market was evident in late Jan. PEN bucked the trend for a week or 2 but was also in a revesal in late Feb, whilst everyone was chanting 18c, 20c, 50c & $1.

During the final half of 2010 global share markets staged a strong rally, gaining in excess of 20 per cent. After becoming over extended, this upward bias was surrendered early in the new year. Evidence of exhaustion prompted a downgrade to our near term market view in late January. Our ‘market meter’ has since swayed between ‘cautious’ and ‘neutral’, a position justified by the absence of a dominant trend.


Subsequent trade during 2011 has seen most major indices effectively trade sideways. This malaise was interspersed by a much overdue ‘shakeout’ during the month of March. The retracement saw benchmark indices post high single digit percentage declines, although riskier sections of the market experienced falls twice as severe.


----------



## anthndp

This is Gold, abit dated 11th April so feel free to delete it if need be.

Price Trend
[price change of PEN in brackets] PENOC decreased 1.5% for the day [3.4%]; plummeted 9.7% for the week
[6.5%] and crashed 33.7% for the month [31.2%].

But to balance the post up

Trailing five years
A two-bagger in the past five years, the value of $1,000 invested five years ago is $2,515, for a capital gain
of $1,515.

Good but not great for a spec with such promise as we are lead to believe, certainly not 70 pages worth IMO.


----------



## tech/a

On the _*SURFACE*_ could be viewed by the in experienced as wise and timely words.

Dig a little deeper and perhaps going forward isn't as crystal clear as presented.



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some sense at last re PEN.
> 
> There are more sellers than buyers atm, and the share price has not risen as a result.
> 
> Once there are more buyers than sellers, with volume,  it will advance.
> 
> Simple.
> 
> gg






hangseng said:


> Brilliance gg
> 
> Thought provoking brilliance that covers every stock on the ASX and yet it draws the need to be posted on PEN.




So lets look at why PEN is likely to stay in a wide range for a long long time.
Months before things materialize.

Some may find *Thought provoking stuff for PEN only* and NOT every other stock in the ASX.
If only it was as easy as our learner ed pundits think it is!!

Click to expand


----------



## Boggo

So_Cynical said:


> Post 1004 below (i had to look ) i cant see any grand predictions tech :dunno: all i see is the usually "could go either way" analysis that charty types seem to always come up with.





A quick refresher of some previous posts.

If tech/a didn't predict it then who are the posts below responding to ?



TabJockey said:


> I think your dreaming at 9.5c I would be very surprised if it was sold to that.






ColB said:


> 9.5c???  The best you will do is 12.5c Tech.  Get in while you can, it is going to bounce back to 14.5c in the next couple of days






barney said:


> 9.5 eh Tech  ..... Its only fair I give you the chance to get me back .... plus you would be getting one heck of an entry  ...... I'm in ....  18.5 cents before 9.5 cents







hangseng said:


> You will find him and his mate daffy duck at 9.5c I am sure lol.
> 
> Seriously though tech/a, no chance in hell is that going to occur without a major market crash. There isn't one fundamental (or technical) reason why it would occur otherwise. In fact there are so many imminent reasons fundamentally why it won't occur and it is more likely to head to the 20c Fib extensions as I displayed recently.
> 
> Support at 12.5 has proven solid in very poor market conditions since the 21/2/2011 stochs displays well oversold on the daily chart, OBV continues to rise and buy volume has increased again. How on earth do you believe 9.5c is going to occur?




And the only sensible post was left til last....



chensteiger said:


> I am thinking of putting a sell trigger at 0.12 if 0.125 resistance wipes.


----------



## nulla nulla

All the fanfare about PEN simply draws the attention of the opportunists looking for a trade on the next bounce.


----------



## toocool

tech/a said:


> So lets look at why PEN is likely to stay in a wide range for a long long time.
> Months before things materialize.
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> View attachment 42673





Simple, Quality analysis.


----------



## barney

Not aimed at anyone in particular,  but out of curiousity, with everyone blowing their respective trumpets on how brilliant their analysis was/has been/and still is on PEN, and how it was a lay down mazare to drop from its false highs to its totally predictable lows .......

Did anyone on this Forum actually SHORT it ??


----------



## skyQuake

barney said:


> Not aimed at anyone in particular,  but out of curiousity, with everyone blowing their respective trumpets on how brilliant their analysis was/has been/and still is on PEN, and how it was a lay down mazare to drop from its false highs to its totally predictable lows .......
> 
> Did anyone on this Forum actually SHORT it ??




Probably not as there was zilch borrow sitting around. 

There around a 1c discount of PENOA to intrinsic for a while and no-one could take advantage of it due to lack of borrow.


----------



## anthndp

barney said:


> Not aimed at anyone in particular,  but out of curiousity, with everyone blowing their respective trumpets on how brilliant their analysis was/has been/and still is on PEN, and how it was a lay down mazare to drop from its false highs to its totally predictable lows .......
> 
> Did anyone on this Forum actually SHORT it ??




No I didn't kind of new to the game but shorting will be something that may interest me in the years to come, but if your looking at a time frame from late january (when there were signs of a market pullback) to now not buying would have been clearly the 2nd best option. nothing gained but nothing LOST.


----------



## tech/a

How prey tell would you short it?
The only way I know of is CFD's
As I don't trade them or short anything but
Indexes --- no


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> How prey tell would you short it?
> The only way I know of is CFD's
> As I don't trade them or short anything but
> Indexes --- no




Pen isn't on the ASX short sell list and can't be shorted CFD's on IG Markets.


----------



## barney

skyQuake said:


> Probably not as there was zilch borrow sitting around.




Agree sQ,  

I noticed there were a few brave punters a couple of weeks back however who found some stock to have a dig with, but it seemed a bit pointless to me considering the R/R, even when weighing in the Japan issues.

I confess, as a holder of this stock, I was reacting to the continual seemingly pointless negative sentiment on the thread from those who have no vested interest (not you personally sQ .... your credentials are well respected )  


Perhaps my previous question should have been  ...... Did anybody, or has anybody who thinks PEN was/is a shot duck, checked whether they* could have been *shorting the stock?

My guess is that amongst all the analytical knowledge being posted to the negative on this stock, that very few have even considered the possibility of backing their downside analysis with cash ......


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> Pen isn't on the ASX short sell list and can't be shorted CFD's on IG Markets.




Howdy Hang,  True it cannot be shorted via IG, but it has been previously shorted via "normal" channels, but very little volume as alluded to by skyQuake.

I'd love to see the CFD providers take it on
Cheers.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

As I have indicated, this is a hotcopper thread.

It reminds me of the Storm Financial mindset.

"It will be a winner because we feel or believe it is"

Low volume and a sideward movement, in the midst of a downtrend, would indicate that a lower price will be achieved.

The truebelievers would be advised to put in buy orders at 0.055, as per my chart of above.

gg


----------



## barney

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As I have indicated, this is a hotcopper thread.
> 
> It reminds me of the Storm Financial mindset.
> 
> "It will be a winner because we feel or believe it is"
> 
> Low volume and a sideward movement, in the midst of a downtrend, would indicate that a lower price will be achieved.
> 
> The *truebelievers would be advised to put in buy orders at 0.055*, as per my chart of above.
> 
> gg





I think you will find that many of the "true believers" have been in well under that price GG 

ps I do agree the chart is not pretty however.

pps  Considering I have posted 3 of the last 8 posts, I am bemused how you see my content as "HotCopper" like  ... I am mildly offended


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

barney said:


> I think you will find that many of the "true believers" have been in well under that price GG
> 
> ps I do agree the chart is not pretty however.
> 
> pps  Considering I have posted 3 of the last 8 posts, I am bemused how you see my content as "HotCopper" like  ... I am mildly offended




By definition, if you are offended, and not of a believing ilk, I must offer an apology.

One is sometimes judged by one's fellows.

Much of this thread is a rah rah "I'm a friend of PEN" perambulation. Much as one , I am told, sees on hotcopper.

The PEN announcements are pedestrian, the fundamentals ignore global sentiment and the charts look sick.

gg

gg


----------



## Boggo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The PEN announcements are pedestrian, the fundamentals ignore global sentiment *and the charts look sick.*
> 
> gg




exactly gg, simple Turtle view of the current state of play

(click to expand)


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> By definition, if you are offended, and not of a believing ilk, I must offer an apology.
> 
> One is sometimes judged by one's fellows.
> 
> Much of this thread is a rah rah "I'm a friend of PEN" perambulation. Much as one , I am told, sees on hotcopper.
> 
> The PEN announcements are pedestrian, the fundamentals ignore global sentiment and the charts look sick.
> 
> gg
> 
> gg




"The PEN announcements are pedestrian, the fundamentals ignore global sentiment"

In your own words gg this is personal "opinion" and definitely not factual. The first is most certainly a personal opinion. In mine and many others more knowledgeable than me they are anything but "pedestrian". An extended use and seemingly good command of the english language doesn't make it factual, in this case far from it. 

Company fundamentals are focussed on company development toward planned milestones.  Global sentiment is a macro aspect that affects far more than just PEN. Company management have not ignored macro aspects, in fact they have constantly considered macro aspects and the planned development is shrouded by just this. To suggest otherwise is quite simply an incorrect assumption.

tech/a how you can pump your chest out and say you predicted the Tsnunami event and subsequent fall, is simply not factual. My statement surrounded the Tsunami event and you responded you did just that, quite simply you nor any other did any such thing.


----------



## tech/a

> tech/a how you can pump your chest out and say you predicted the Tsnunami event and subsequent fall, is simply not factual. My statement surrounded the Tsunami event and you responded you did just that, quite simply you nor any other did any such thing.




I dont see Tsunami used in any of my pre or post analysis. Your vainly attempting to divert the issue from the analysis.
Weakness yes.
I'll say this slowly for you once again.

_If a stock is weak it will be more susceptible to global events._

I made it clear that it would be wise to sell if 12.5c breached and as it turned out it certainly was.


----------



## Joe Blow

The last few posts in this thread have been removed due to pointless bickering and personal attacks.

I am rapidy losing patience with this thread and if the level of debate does not improve it will be closed and all discussion of PEN at ASF will cease until such time as I decide to reopen it.

No personal attacks. No baiting. Just news, relevant information and analysis please.


----------



## Assasin

Hey Joe,
           you have to admit that the comment about marriage was pretty funny.
        Sure made me laugh.
        Keep up the good work.


----------



## hangseng

Todays announcement displays just how well the permitting process is going. 

*NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION HAS COMMENCED
FORMAL SAFETY AND ENVIROMENTAL ACCEPTANCE REVIEW*

http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---eiyaoxaeko.pdf

Peninsula’s Executive Chairman Mr. Gus Simpson said _*“The confirmation that the NRC expects to complete its acceptance review ahead of schedule is an example of the efficiencies being achieved through the pro-active involvement of Strata and the regulatory bodies during the new streamlined licensing process.”*_

The above statement is confirmed on the NRC ADAMS website. Outstanding news once again.

Current status in a chart:


----------



## hangseng

Amended permitting chart

My latest information is thet the WDEQ permitting will be carried out simultaneously so I have just bundled them together.

The only permits not shown there are:

1. Early construction exemption (I expect this earlier now)
2. Permit to toll (irrelevant to all other permits heading to production. This is "cream" on the already tasty cake)

Another great announcement today


----------



## Megacents

nulla nulla said:


> All the fanfare about PEN simply draws the attention of the opportunists looking for a trade on the next bounce.




Very true nulla nulla and it is good to see volume as it allows buyers and sellers to swap easily. Nice place nulla nulla.


----------



## Megacents

Did any one read the announcement of MOU with Strata and Crook County. Looks like PEN is forging links with many sectors.

That is the way to get the community on side.  Well done


----------



## tothemax6

tech/a said:


> I dont see Tsunami used in any of my pre or post analysis. Your vainly attempting to divert the issue from the analysis.
> Weakness yes.
> I'll say this slowly for you once again.
> 
> _If a stock is weak it will be more susceptible to global events._
> 
> I made it clear that it would be wise to sell if 12.5c breached and as it turned out it certainly was.



But surely what price PEN was at, and what price actions had occurred before that, was not really a factor. The fact that it was a speculative uranium explorer, and a nuclear accident had occurred resulting from a Tsunami, was the reason the stock dropped. It could have been flat for months and would have still plummeted on this news.
Would you not agree that your tech/a call is actually null, rather than a good or bad call? Obviously the fall had nothing to do with the price action and the 12.5c mark, and it was a coincidence you made your call just before the Fukushima incident.  

I recall a famous trade in which the trader was short a Chinese manufacturing firm - but the stock was steadily rising in price. The trader was absolutely certain the firms fundamentals were poor, but the company went from strength to strength, and his boss simply kept pointing out the rising price. Finally the stock plummeted, and the trader keenly informed his boss that his trade had been correct after all - it was April 1989.
His boss replied "The way I see it, is that it took a revolution of a billion people for your darn short to work out".


----------



## tech/a

The point missed is "technically" the chart was weak.
There were also a whole host of charts traded on the ASX which were also weak.
No claim of anything simply weakness---fell a lot further than I imagined---so what!
Weakness leaves the stock susceptible to ANY negative impact from world news.
My analysis if you have a look states that a fall to 12c would be seen as a breach of support and as such "wise" to get out of the trade.

This happened a full day before Japan happened.
Those who sold at 12c would have avoided a great deal of loss.

End of story nothing miraculous simple analysis like all analysis.
It will be proven correct or incorrect.

It is interesting though that price has remained low despite continued results /announcements and positive spin.


----------



## hangseng

Todays announcement seems to have gone to the keeper...
*12 May 2011 Outstanding Uranium and Associated Molybdenum Grades Returned in Karoo (471.03 Kb) *
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---thaezuthei.pdf

Big mistake IMO and will be shown to be once the high grade molybdenum and uranium deposits are proved up, as is continuing to be indicated.

At Karoo the Mo "halo's" the uranium and PEN has known this for some time. That along with the fact PEN is continuing to display this is a "Near surface" deposit at site 22 in particular.

Also the Karoo deposit is "masked", as I have pointed out in the past:

_"*During Phase 2 of the programme all new surface uranium occurrences within the selected drilling areas will be subjected to an initial drilling programme to confirm subsurface extension of the mineralisation and to determine grades*."


This from previous Karoo reporting:

"*As radiometric surveys can only test the very shallow surface environment a few cm, a uranium mineralised body covered with a thin layer of sand or soil will give a minimal to non-existent response in the uranium channel. Thin overburden can also dilute a uranium response and make it very weak, highlighting the importance of placing anomalies in context*."

http://www.pel.net.au/pdf/080508 Karoo Rasults Final.pdf

Anyone who saw what EXT reported about 3 years ago in relation to this (Rossing South) would know why I am highlighting this very important aspect. Beneath this "masked" surface reading could be a massive uranium resource, or there could be nothing at all. I doubt very much it will be the latter, however the former remains to be seen.

The layers of "sand or soil" PEN indicates above can "mask" the subsurface uranium mineralisation, as happened at Rossing. Many argued that was a load of rubbish here on the EXT thread, we now know the results at Rossing and that the now suspended "Uncle Barry" was 100% correct.

I am not saying this will occur, I am just highlighting that it has the potential to occur and the similarities that should not be ignored. 

PEN clearly aren't ignoring this aspect.

Now drilling is underway at Karoo, what will be uncovered in this campaign?

A little history for those that haven't gone back that far:

FURTHER HIGH GRADE URANIUM AND MOLYBDENUM CONFIRMED AT KAROO
Highlights

* Uranium mineralisation confirmed to 9,053ppm <0.905%> U3O8 at Site 22
* Uranium mineralisation confirmed to 1,833ppm <0.183%> U3O8 at Site 49
* Molybdenum mineralisation confirmed to 879ppm <0.088%> Mo at Site 22
* Molybdenum mineralisation confirmed to 965ppm <0.097%> Mo at Site 49
* Priority drill targets confirmed
* Follow up testing on additional radiometric anomalies to be undertaken.


Karoo has massive grades indicated and in addition to the uranium very high grades of Molybdenum .

Previously reported at Site 29:

HIGH GRADE URANIUM AND MOLYBDENUM CONFIRMED AT KAROO PROJECTS
Highlights
* Assays confirm uranium mineralisation with grades to 21,000ppm <2.1%> U3O8* Molybdenum grades confirmed up to 2,430ppm
* 7 out of 10 prospects return grades over 1,000ppm U3O8
* Four very high priority drill targets confirmed


I can't wait for the drill results of this current campaign. Maybe you can see why I am also focused on the "masking" aspect.

Before we go rushing out to mortgage everything, the Mo results above were taken from the "assay of twenty three rock chip samples". Although they can be a reliable indicator, the drilling and confirmation assay is obviously required to confirm.

The Karoo leases though do have significant historical drilling data. 

This is also something I have never forgotten:

"Potential to add approximately 50% to the value of the in situ uranium. This significantly impacts on the economics of mining these types of mineralisation"_
sources:

http://www.pel.net.au/news___announcements/karoo__south_africa.phtml

http://www.pel.net.au/projects/karoo_region__south_africa.phtml


----------



## tech/a

I'm often amused by your regurgitation and commentary on almost every announcement.
Your clear bias is noted.

But the stock is reacting as I believe it should---with caution.
Its not mining and isn't sure that it will be economically viable.
You keep comparing with Stock which have passed the potential stage.
What you dont point out is the many who never go beyond where PEN is today.





Clearly the ECONOMIC viability isn't yet set in stone.
This guys marketing shows hes no idiot.
A higher price and blah blah potential might just attract a buyer---and he is out of there.

In fact H/S if you had the money you'd be out with the cheque book 6 months ago.---well you still are---


----------



## Sean K

Japan have shelved plans for about 14 (from memory) new reactors. Not sure if any other players have reset plans but a lot of the uranium price was factored in to the demand coming on strong over the next 10-20 years. Price of U could be trashed and put any explorers in mothballs. 

This has always been one of the risks.

The fundamentals are saying _trouble_ to anyone wanting to start mining in the short to medium term.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

kennas said:


> Japan have shelved plans for about 14 (from memory) new reactors. Not sure if any other players have reset plans but a lot of the uranium price was factored in to the demand coming on strong over the next 10-20 years. Price of U could be trashed and put any explorers in mothballs.
> 
> This has always been one of the risks.
> 
> The fundamentals are saying _trouble_ to anyone wanting to start mining in the short to medium term.




And that is before you look at the chart.

One for the true believers, and good luck to them if they score, however, sentiment and the charts are against them.

gg


----------



## hangseng

kennas said:


> Japan have shelved plans for about 14 (from memory) new reactors. Not sure if any other players have reset plans but a lot of the uranium price was factored in to the demand coming on strong over the next 10-20 years. Price of U could be trashed and put any explorers in mothballs.
> 
> This has always been one of the risks.
> 
> The fundamentals are saying _trouble_ to anyone wanting to start mining in the short to medium term.




"Shelved" where did you get that from kennas?

One of the aspects that really p's me off is misinformation. The media has done this in spades over the earthquake and tsnami events, and doing so agian with a fervour beyond reason.

Another example of speculative media crud. All the way through this event the media simply love to use poetic license and "expand' the truth and facts as they did throughout the events that ensued the earthquake and tsunami.

They couldn't lie straight in bed some of them.

*The Japanese Prime Minister gave a speech but never stated any such thing*.

This is what he stated in part...

Note: "Reconsider" as the headline...NOT "Abandon" of which they definitiely have not.

They are "reconsidering" policy, no mention of "abandoning" except in he media.

Also note they intend to increase nuclear energy from the current 30% to 50% by 2030. If they aren't going to expand capacity of nuclear then how will this be done?????

Perhaps the Einsteins in the press can tell the world how this will magically be done? They couldn't do that though as that would be telling the truth...not really a news selling aspect it seems.

*Japan to reconsider energy policy
11 May 2011 *

"A rethink of Japan's energy policy following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been announced by the country's prime minister Naoto Kan. Nuclear will remain a "pillar" in Japan's energy supply, he said."

and...

"I think it is necessary to discuss from scratch the current basic energy plan, under which the *share of nuclear energy is expected to be more than 50% in 2030*, while more than 20% will come from renewable power."

source: 
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/N...N_Daily_11_May_20115_11_2011&utm_medium=email Other 


*Reality check:*



IMO Japan will follow, as will the rest of the world. Coal is a finite resource and known to be an unclean energy source, killing far more than nuclear ever did (as has been posted here and elsewhere previously).

This is simply a writing on the wall article but a good one IMO.

In part...

*"Nuclear is the safest option"
Meng Si

May 10, 2011 
Fukushima triggered public alarm in China, but state energy researcher Jiang Kejun believes nuclear power remains the country?s best bet. *
He tells Meng Si why

_"In the early days of the Japanese nuclear crisis, the Standing Committee of China?s State Council suspended approval of new nuclear-power projects. Later, an official at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ? China?s top economic planning body ? indicated that China would not abandon nuclear power as a result of events in Japan and that, as long as safety is assured, development would still be rapid. So what is the real impact of Japan?s disaster on future energy policy in China? chinadialogue?s Meng Si spoke to Jiang Kejun, senior researcher at NDRC?s Energy Research Institute."_

Full article:

http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4281



Scaremongering using baseless information is rife over Fukishima, the facts remain. PEN will be a producer (funding and full permitting pending). A producer ahead of the herd of hopefuls that many posters have been singing the praises of that are a long way from production yet, if they ever get there.

Not only do I not scare easily, I don't take notice of traders that have a clear interest in a stocks price going down to gain a better entry. Good luck with that.


----------



## tech/a

> PEN will be a producer (funding and full permitting pending).




Should read PEN *could* be a producer (funding and full permitting pending).

And until then my and many others funds will be else where.
I cant stand sitting in a train at a station not knowing if it will EVER leave.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> Not only do I not scare easily, I don't take notice of traders that have a clear interest in a stocks price going down to gain a better entry. Good luck with that.




Not scaring easily is admirable, though it can be foolhardy for one's grubstake if taken to the extreme. 

PEN is a piddler small stock,  and if you believe that a few comments on a small forum such as hotcopper, or even on a larger and more influential one such as ASF, can change it's price, then I would be scared if I were you.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Japan shelves nuclear power expansion

http://japansnucleardisaster.com/2011/05/japan-shelves-nuclear-power-expansion/

Countries shelve nuclear power plans

http://blog.cleantechies.com/2011/03/15/countries-shelve-nuclear-plans-in-wake-of-accident/

Of Japan's 54 nuclear reactors, 11 were suspended due to the earthquake and another 22 reactors suspended for servicing. That leaves 21 reactors, less than half of the country's total, in operation.

http://dalje.com/en-world/japan-shuts-down-another-nuclear-plant/357469

Japan shelves plans

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/17_36.html

Italy shelves nuclear plans

http://article.wn.com/view/2011/04/19/Italy_shelves_nuclear_plans_after_Japan_quake_i/

Japan utilities shelve more nuclear plans

http://www.argusmedia.com/pages/NewsBody.aspx?id=744506&menu=yes

China suspends

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wo...-After-Disaster/Article/201103315954077?f=rss

Japan: Kyushau shelves plans

http://www.ifandp.com/article/0010731.html



Maybe it just depends what words you google


----------



## skc

Even the producers are struggling pretty badly at the moment. PDN doesn't actually turn a profit, while ERA has operational issues left right and centre.


----------



## tigerboi

*Re: PEN - Peninsula Energy: puzzled why a speccie is always top posted stock*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> PEN is a piddler small stock.
> gg





one thing i could never work out? why a penny stock such as PEN was always the top posted stock at places like HC.

maybe someone could enlighten me as to why this is.
why is it PEN which has little support (sp of about 8c) is the subject of so much debate.
cheers TB


----------



## madjohn

> *Uranium May Rise to $75 a Pound in 2012 After Fukushima, Uranium One Says*
> By Bloomberg News - May 13, 2011 6:12 PM GMT+1000
> 
> Uranium prices may trade from $70 to $75 a pound next year after problems at Japan’s Fukushima Dai- Ichi nuclear power plant are resolved, Fletcher Newton, a vice president at Uranium One Inc. (UUU), said in Beijing.
> 
> The price of uranium oxide concentrate for immediate delivery will be from $55 to $65 a pound this year, Newton told Bloomberg before a conference today.
> 
> “You simply can’t build a uranium mine at these prices,” Newton said. When Japan starts to experience a power shortage this summer “the world will look at it and realize that the issues we face are the same as before” in meeting nuclear power requirements. New uranium mines need a price of $85 a pound before they are economically viable, Newton said.




More: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ext-year-on-japan-boost-uranium-one-says.html


----------



## madjohn

has nuclear energy got a place in US??
HEY pen IS IN usa NOT japan , anyway.!



http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/licata-alternative-energy-gasoline/2011/05/12/id/396146


----------



## madjohn

US nuclear plants still save.

http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/NuclearPlants-Safety/2011/05/12/id/396109


----------



## madjohn

The costs of replacing Japan`s nuclear power ?

http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/04/replacing_japans_nuclear_power.shtml




well to each it own -I will be buying more PEN even better if it drops lower. 

go PEN!


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Not scaring easily is admirable, though it can be foolhardy for one's grubstake if taken to the extreme.
> 
> PEN is a piddler small stock,  and if you believe that a few comments on a small forum such as hotcopper, or even on a larger and more influential one such as ASF, can change it's price, then I would be scared if I were you.
> 
> gg




Very interesting GG, I don't recal mentioning ASF or HC. Having said that though, although I totally disagree that forums can't influence an sp, it isn't an aspect I let influence me. Especially baseless scare tactics.

However to paraphrase you, that is your personal opinion. If you don't believe forums influence stocks, I respectfully suggest (IMO) you are wrong.

I could cite quite a few examples, however CDU is on record in the media in particular. Wayne Mcrae clearly had nothing to say when the postings on HC, here and elswhere were attributed to a massive spike in the share price in the Australian media. However he had plenty to say when the sp dived and placed the blame squarely at some HC posters and HC.

PEN was a perfect example in 2009 of what can occur, AAR another in 2008.

One thing is for certain (IMO), novices do get influenced and posters with knowledge you post accordingly and honourably. Unfortunately forums attract all manner of people and with see other tyhan that far too often.

No GG, I am no afraid one bit. Fear is born of lack of understanding and knowledge in the main, I lack neither. 

Like good traders who stick to a trading plan, or at least they profess to. I have an investment plan and I am sticking to it until something fundamentally factual comes along to change my positive views of this "piddler small stock" company. That was not so long ago placed into the "All Ordinary" stock listing. Not to shabby for a "piddler".

I certainly look forward to continuing discussion in the 1st half of 2012, where I believe certain posters will either not post here anymore or will at least post with a different view.

Short term fluctuations of an sp are not of any concern to me and I am damn certain are not of any concern to the excellent management of this company. My work in project risk management permits me to make learned decisions based on objective, factual information and not purely subjective individual views. To date it has served me well.

Todays announcement once again "denouncing" the many posts here and elsewhere over false innuendo posted about permitting of Lance and supposed environmental concerns. Now all proven to be absolute garbage and little more than an atempt to influence posters.

The truth isn't always immeniately apparent, however it always prevails...

*ROSS ISR PERMITTING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE*
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---vaemoocohl.pdf


----------



## mickqld

tech/a said:


> Should read PEN *could* be a producer (funding and full permitting pending).
> 
> And until then my and many others funds will be else where.
> I cant stand sitting in a train at a station not knowing if it will EVER leave.
> Originally Posted by Garpal Gumnut
> Not scaring easily is admirable, though it can be foolhardy for one's grubstake if taken to the extreme.
> 
> PEN is a piddler small stock, and if you believe that a few comments on a small forum such as hotcopper, or even on a larger and more influential one such as ASF, can change it's price, then I would be scared if I were you.
> 
> gg




What I also cant stand is why people who have no interest in owning a stock want to waste so much time using baseless misinformation to continually talk down a stock. Especially one they consider a piddling insignificant minow. Unless of course they have a more selfish hidden agenda.


----------



## Joe Blow

Once again, I have had to remove a number of no/low content posts from this thread that offer nothing of value to the reader.

I would ask that those who have nothing to offer but sarcasm, funny pictures or off-topic throw away remarks please refrain from posting in this thread. From this point forward, no/low content posts will be met with infractions.

If you are going to post in this thread - and I don't care whether you have a bullish or bearish perspective to offer - please contribute something of substance that adds some value. This thread remains the most problematic stock thread on ASF and I am getting weary of constantly having to clean it up.


----------



## mickqld

This is a company that rarely if ever gets it wrong.



> *An Olympic victory for BHP*
> Robert Gottliebsen
> Published 7:31 AM, 16 May 2011 Last update 10:25 AM, 16 May 2011
> 
> Olympic Dam is the world’s most valuable mineral deposit (BHP's Olympic dream, January 20) and will go close to being the world’s biggest start-up mining development. The enormous scale is revealed in the Olympic Dam environmental statement which shows where BHP will spend $30 billion to access the ore.
> 
> [SNIP]
> 
> The world is worried about the future of nuclear, but BHP appears to have has no such concerns, and has produced a remarkable set of maps and tables which show that currently there are 439 nuclear reactors in operation. Dalla Valle says that he expects the number to rise to 793 by 2030 – just under 20 years.
> 
> Those 793 reactors will require around 92,000 tonnes of uranium, according to Dalla Valle. BHP will be producing 15,000 tonnes from the open pit and 4,000 tonnes from the underground mine – a total of 19,000 – and will be the world’s biggest supplier. Dalla Valle says that, despite the 19,000 tonne Olympic Dam uranium output, on his present estimates there will be a shortfall of an incredible 50,721 tonnes of uranium oxide on the basis of present and planned output.
> 
> If he is right, the price of uranium will go through the roof unless more Olympic Dams are discovered and developed.
> 
> [SNIP]




Entire article: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...er-Pilbara-boom-pd20110516-GVSRR?opendocument


----------



## hangseng

mickqld said:


> This is a company that rarely if ever gets it wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> Entire article: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...er-Pilbara-boom-pd20110516-GVSRR?opendocument




As always Mick I love your knowledgeable focussed manner.

Regardless of the Japan event, nuclear is here to stay and absolutely no doubt those that know far better than you or I agree on that point and that a shortfall is highly likely. PEN is well placed for coming events IMO.

John Borshoff obviously thinks so as well...




> Uranium demand may fall about 5 percent in the "short to mid-term," he said. Even so, the crisis may exacerbate a uranium supply shortage as explorers struggle to gain financing to proceed with their projects, Borshoff said earlier today on a conference call with analysts.
> 
> *'Nuclear Revival'
> 
> "The major drivers to the nuclear revival, such as China, India, Korea, Russia and the Middle East, remain committed" to expansion, he said. The Japan disaster has obscured the "positive underlying fundamentals," he added.*





Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...LLC04B0YHQ0X01-1C2DT1PLF727RQ56CB6VP17MQF.DTL


----------



## Joe Blow

The last three posts in this thread have been removed.

What happens on other forums stays on other forums. The PEN thread at ASF is not for stories of bannings and drama from other forums and posts that contain this kind of content will be removed.

I am going to say it *one last time*: If you have nothing of value to add to this thread, please refrain from posting. By "value" I mean some news, relevant information or analysis. Any assertions made about PEN must be backed up with some reasoning or supporting information.

No/Low content posts will continue to be removed and infractions will be issued.


----------



## hangseng

Simply a matter of time IMO....sentiment will change and all will be forgotten as I have stated all along. The "Herd" will follow as usual.


http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/uranium-price-rebound/3096

In part:



> *Uranium Price Rebound
> If There Was Ever a Time to Buy...*
> By Ian Cooper
> Thursday, May 26th, 2011
> 
> Say what you will about nuclear energy...
> 
> But it's not going away. Not as smart investors realize Chinese demand far outweighs Japan's nuclear woes.
> 
> As a result, the biggest drop in uranium prices may be coming to an end as China and India make plans for nuclear developments that will more than double global uranium production.
> 
> China's Nuclear Energy Association announced two weeks ago they will boost atomic capacity as much as eight times by the time 2020 rolls around.
> 
> By 2030, India's Atomic Energy Commission is increasing production 13-fold.
> 
> Turkey has a 4.8 GWe reaction site under construction on its Mediterranean coast and plans for a similar project on the Black Sea. They're looking to build a third reactor on the Bulgarian border.
> 
> The United Arab Emirates has construction plans for four 1,400 MWe reactors. And Sweden just reportedly reversed its moratorium on new reactors.
> 
> The demand is very real, folks ”” despite the horrific events in Japan.
> 
> But that demand won't be met, so long as supply remains tight...


----------



## skyQuake

Is there an actual tradable uranium spot mkt? If so is there a code for it?
Havent been able to find a good proxy for the u308 price.. trying to run a correlation with PEN


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

PEN is in another triangle, a downward sloping one, and it is interesting that all the high volume has been on down days, where sellers forced the price lower.

It will be interesting to see how it fares on Monday, as a break lower would be catastrophic for long term holders.

The price indecision at present on the chart is interesting. It will not stay thus, for long. 

Will it rise or fall?

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> PEN is in another triangle, a downward sloping one, and
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *it is interesting that all the high volume has been on down days, where sellers forced the price lower*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> It will be interesting to see how it fares on Monday, as a break lower would be catastrophic for long term holders.
> 
> The price indecision at present on the chart is interesting. It will not stay thus, for long.
> 
> Will it rise or fall?
> 
> gg
Click to expand...



I  disagree with the highlighted section.

You haven't mentioned that most of those days the sp was trading higher and it was only at close the sp was sold down and on most occasions only by a handful of shares (somedays on 2 or 3 shares changed to ensure it went lower at close) on CSPA. Noted by many watching it live on a daily basis.

That disguises what is really occurring.

Draw a few more lines and PEN is in a sideways consolidation pattern and also you could say a symmetrical triangle depending on when you commence the lines.

The highest volume being 8m on your section of chart and most of it less than a 2m shares. Hardly big volume, especially for PEN.

Considering the market general has taken a beating these last few months, PEN has held very well. It does remain to be seen if PEN goes up or down, however after listening to the live NRC meting last week and what I know to be fundamentally factual I believe *UP* has a much higher probability than down.

"catastrophic"....lol why? I would see this as simply another opportunity and anything but that. I am a long term holder so I can comment on that and my view is shared by many I discuss PEN with offline and online. Your view would be that of a non-holder or at best short term trader with ongoing negative view of PEN, so the statement is mere (wrong) assumption on your part.

I only responded in the last paragraph because of the subjective and baseless use of a dramatised expletive in an attempt to back up a personal view. Unwarranted and baseless.


----------



## hangseng

Let's see what happens today for example.

The chart below clearly shows the bulk of the volume is buying up to 8.2 in the main, not down to 8.1.

Theoretically it would be reasonabl;e to assume a close at 8.2 based on this. I would almost lay money on it that it will close at auction 8.1 on just a few shares as has happened so many times before. To give just the impression you allude to gg.

http://postimage.org/image/1g1plmop0/

Let's see what happens....


----------



## tech/a

Even in Spain my curiosity is peaked on this thread.

Attempting to make a call on $ 250000 worth of traded stock is just crazy.
This minnow is churning nothing more.
If you care to look back it's performing as expected ranging and will do for a LONG time.--- in my not so humble technical view.


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> Even in Spain my curiosity is peaked on this thread.
> 
> Attempting to make a call on $ 250000 worth of traded stock is just crazy.
> This minnow is churning nothing more.
> If you care to look back it's performing as expected ranging and will do for a LONG time.--- in my not so humble technical view.




Lol you should really learn how to holiday, tech/a.


----------



## skyQuake

> Germany says it will shut down all its nuclear power plants by 2022, becoming the first major industrial power to give up atomic power and rely entirely on other sources of energy.




Some bear news in this thread for once.

Not that PEN has shown any real correlation to the spot uranium price or any of the uranium majors


----------



## hangseng

skyQuake said:


> Some bear news in this thread for once.
> 
> Not that PEN has shown any real correlation to the spot uranium price or any of the uranium majors




You should read more of this thread lol...

Searching for negativity??? an interesting concept but plenty of that here, especially since the Tsunami in Japan. There has been many an attempt to drag PEN through the mud recently and over the last 2 years and I am sure it will continue lol.

But let's open up that discussion a little, as I find it a little interesting for a few reasons.

That is such a politically motivated decision void of logic or reason IMO. I find it simply amasing they decide they will shutdown nuclear energy BEFORE having decided on alternatives.

Lets look at the alternatives:


*Wind* - Germany uses this succesfully as many countries such as Australia do. The land space required is massive and atm it only makes up 4% of the total power source. The have approximately 17,000 windmills now, ...do the maths. The will wipe the wonderful lanscape of germany into a sea of windmills....simply not going to happen.

*Solar* - see above

*Coal* - see below


I will stop there for now and simply post up this link, it says it all IMO.

*Can Germany Really Shut Down Their Nuclear Plants and Phase Out Fossil Fuels?* 
Written by Breakthrough Institute     
Saturday, 28 May 2011 14:30  

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...uclear-Plants-and-Phase-Out-Fossil-Fuels.html


Willl it make a difference to the use of Nuclear Energy in the region? IMO it will, with France exporting nuclear power to Germany. Guess who has been in France in "talks" (about what I have no idea) he MD of PEN Mr John (Gus) Simpson. I bow to his foresight!

You could only speculate what the "talks" are about or who with. However it isn't unreasonable to think it would be utilities as they did in the US, and also the uranium/nuclear energy juggernaut AREVA is based there.

Interesting times ahead, of that I am certain and I look forward to it.


----------



## skyQuake

By Rainer Buergin and Brian Parkin
     May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Germany moved closer to a plan to
become the biggest nation to exit nuclear power, with Chancellor
Angela Merkel’s coalition endorsing a shutdown of atomic plants
by 2022, capping her reversal on energy policy.
     EON AG and RWE AG, the two biggest utilities, led declines
on the benchmark DAX stock index, with both dropping more than 2
percent and RWE slumping to its lowest since December 2004 as
the government retained a tax on spent fuel rods.
     The decision in the early morning hours today by coalition
leaders in Berlin underscored Merkel’s flip-flop from a 2009 re-
election promise to extend the life of nuclear reactors. She did
her about-face after the March meltdown in Japan as the anti-
nuclear Green Party gained in polls. Her party lost control of
Baden-Wuerttemberg to the Greens in March and finished behind
them in a state election for the first time on May 22.
     “As far as the government’s credibility is concerned, it
was about damage limitation,” said Bernhard Jeggle, a utility
analyst with Landesbank Baden Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart. “Those
people who wanted to exit nuclear probably voted Green in the
first place and will continue to choose the original rather than
Merkel’s copy.”
     Germany’s BWE renewable energy federation said this year
its members were prepared to spend as much as 200 billion euros
($286 billion) by 2020 to develop wind and solar power. Merkel
wants to present five or six bills in Cabinet on June 6,
including a revamp of feed-in-tariffs for solar, wind and bio-
mass power, new building insulation targets and plans to build
new “smart” power grids.
     Businesses and utilities opposed Merkel’s move, warning of
increased costs and less reliable power sources.

                         Nuclear Supply

     Nuclear supplied some 22 percent of German power in 2010,
while renewable sources provided 17 percent, the Economy
Ministry said. Europe is split on the future of nuclear power,
with France and the U.K. planning more reactors while Germany
joined Switzerland in setting an exit date and Italy extended a
moratorium on plans to re-enter atomic energy.
     Germany is Europe’s largest power market, followed by
France. Germany last year was a net exporter of power to France,
sending 16.1 terawatt hours to the country compared with imports
of 9.4 terawatt hours, according to data published by grid
operate Reseau de Transport d’Electricite.
     “It’s hard to see how they will replace the energy,” Anne
Lauvergeon, chief executive officer of French state-owned Areva
SA, the world’s biggest maker of nuclear equipment, said on BFM
Radio. “I’m not sure there is enough Polish coal, and it creates
carbon problems. Alternative energy sources are intermittent
sources. I think they will do what Austria did in its time:
import nuclear electricity from neighboring countries.”
     EON slumped as much as 2.5 percent to 19.52 euros and was
down 2.1 percent as of 9:20 a.m. local time in Frankfurt
trading, extending the stock’s decline to 15 percent this year.
Smaller rival RWE tumbled as much as 2.5 percent.

                        Fukushima Impact

     Merkel in March said she sought to accelerate the shutdown
of Germany’s atomic power plants following Japan’s Fukushima
disaster, the worst nuclear crisis since 1986. The decision
reversed a 2010 plan to extend the operation of the facilities
by an average of 12 years.
     “The seven oldest reactors that have been placed under a
moratorium and the Kruemmel nuclear power plant won’t go back
online,” Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen told reporters
following the coalition talks. “A second group of six nuclear
power plants will go offline at the end of 2021 at the latest
and the three most modern power plants will go offline 2022 at
the latest.”
     Coalition divisions over the timing of a phase-out deepened
after the Greens finished ahead of Merkel’s Christian Democrats
in the state of Bremen May 22. Merkel said last week she’d await
results of an independent feasibility study on a quicker phase-
out, to be published today, before setting a date.


They will have to now even if they can't afford to. Probably burn some more fossil fuels to bridge the gap. 
Political hoop jumping!


----------



## Sean K

hangseng said:


> Interesting times ahead, of that I am certain and I look forward to it.



I can not fathom how you can take that news as anything less than extremely troubling for explorers/developers.


----------



## isplicer

I really don't have a good feeling about this right now. In all honesty, I believed that the news for U was bad only in the short term, as a result of Japan's unlucky plight (may they experience a swift and efficient recovery), and that U would pick up in the medium term when people got their heads together.

But I just can't understand why germany would make such a rash move! The short term prospects of U seem to be going further and further down... Yes, it defies logic and common sense, especially in an environment with greenies raving about Co2, renewable energy - but one we enter into the dark, moronic world of politics both seem to go out the window faster than the smell of a freshly baked apple pie. 

It's come to the point where U stocks WILL go further down, down, down before people start realising. I'd wait it out for a couple of years, pick up a package when the prospects of U look the darkest, then wait it out for the long, long term and hope that people realise the power of nuclear energy within my lifetime.


----------



## hangseng

kennas said:


> I can not fathom how you can take that news as anything less than extremely troubling for explorers/developers.




Kennas firstly read what I posted, in its entiriety including the link. I hold this is little more than political grandstanding.

That said I acknowledge as I did elsewhere this morning (see below), that if any country could actually achieve this incredible feat without a back up plan in place it is the German people. I will concede their positive attribute of determination and their engineering skills are amongst the most admirable on this planet. 



> "I to agree it would be an outstanding achievement, if in fact they manage to do this. I do agree they are one of the most determined nations of people on this planet and if anyone can they can.
> 
> However I still hold this is politically motivated and it isn't as simple as putting up approximately another 51,000 windmills. People love the idea of "green" energy, me included. However when it comes to plonking a few hundred or maybe even thousands of windmills on someones plot the sentiment changes dramatically.
> 
> As usual time will tell, if they achieve this enormous challenging feat and also meet future energy demands and their ambitious "greenhouse" timeline, I would be one of the first to congratulate them."




I remain unconcerned and I also have other personal reasons of which I will simply keep to myself as they aren't for the forums.


----------



## Boggo

skyQuake said:


> Is there an actual tradable uranium spot mkt? If so is there a code for it?
> Havent been able to find a good proxy for the u308 price.. trying to run a correlation with PEN




Chart below which may be upsetting to some who believe that a penny dreadful is going to override the reality of what is happening.
.


----------



## hangseng

I also forgot to add there remains far more people I regard highly such as Charlie Aitken of Southern Cross Equities et al, that remain unperturbed about the events unfolding.

It isn't a place for the faint of heart atm I admit, but it is a place I am comfortable with for now.

Did the world end for oil after the worst oil incident in years? Causing far more loss of life, damage and harm than the nuclear plant at Fulishima?....No!

Nor will this be the end of nuclear energy.

Nuclear remains the cleanest and safest energy source apart from Hydro, wind and solar. Why is it that we have had the latter for so long and yet nuclear overuns them all? A question I throw out to you all.


----------



## hangseng

It seems someone forgot to mention how devastaing Germany will beto the buyer of PEN just now 

Once again the (negative) sheep simply fall off the cliff following the herd.


----------



## hangseng

For anyone interested...

PEN was obviously being held at 8.1 with multiple very small trades for most of the session...then in came the buyer(s) taking out 8.2, 8.3, 8.4 and 8.5 in a blink.

Is it simply short term traders pumping, or something else? Let's see what the weather blows in.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> For anyone interested...
> 
> PEN was obviously being held at 8.1 with multiple very small trades for most of the session...then in came the buyer(s) taking out 8.2, 8.3, 8.4 and 8.5 in a blink.
> 
> Is it simply short term traders pumping, or something else? Let's see what the weather blows in.




A rise in price on higher volume is good HS.

Let us hope that your one person blitz of all forums from here to Timbuktoo was not responsible for some normally sober folk to lose their senses.

I have chosen PEN this month in the competition, and should it win HS, I shall send you your own personal poem called " PEN ".

gg


----------



## awg

isplicer said:


> But I just can't understand why germany would make such a rash move! The short term prospects of U seem to be going further and further down... Yes, it defies logic and common sense, especially in an environment with greenies raving about Co2, renewable energy - but one we enter into the dark, moronic world of politics both seem to go out the window faster than the smell of a freshly baked apple pie.
> 
> It's come to the point where U stocks WILL go further down, down, down before people start realising. I'd wait it out for a couple of years, pick up a package when the prospects of U look the darkest, then wait it out for the long, long term and hope that people realise the power of nuclear energy within my lifetime.




imo, there is a strong likelyhood this outcome is a Green political compromise, that will not actually mean any substantial reduction in German reliance on Nuclear power.

Even if they close down the plants that were planned to continue, (which I doubt), what they have NOT said is that they wont utilise Nuclear power imported on the grid from both France and Chzech Republic.

It seems unlikely they would be able to bring alternatives online economically and timely manner.  

If they do my REE stocks should be looking good


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A rise in price on higher volume is good HS.
> 
> Let us hope that your one person blitz of all forums from here to Timbuktoo was not responsible for some normally sober folk to lose their senses.
> 
> I have chosen PEN this month in the competition, and should it win HS, I shall send you your own personal poem called " PEN ".
> 
> gg




LOL GG...Yes I am on two forums, however "from here to Timbuktoo" could be a slight exageration. I am registered on 4 forums but only post on two now and have done for some time.

As for the comp I have been waiting to do just that but all I could see here was the may comp. Oh well no harm done, no secret it would have been my stock of choice once again.

Aside from all of this, I have watched PEN for a long time now. I am hoping this is not merely a short term PnD that can and does happen on anticipation of news. The slow long and sustained run up to 15.5 was far preferred than a major spike on an announcement in a day. We see this so many times on stocks and PEN is no orphan in that regard.

However this is the "market" and anything can and usually does happen. It is what makes it a fun place 

Some more volume would convince me it is more than just a clever trader with deep pockets.


----------



## madjohn

The Saudis and UAE are going for nuclear energy that itself is very promising .


----------



## LiL_JaSoN

I'm starting to loose a lot of patients for this stock. 

Been hoving around the same price after every announcement. Spikes up, and then drops back down to where it originally was before the announcement the next day.

Considered selling, but the next few announcements are too close. 

Patient is the key i guess, but i could of traded other stocks while waiting for this on the side.


----------



## Boggo

LiL_JaSoN said:


> I'm starting to loose a lot of patients for this stock.
> 
> Been hoving around the same price after every announcement. Spikes up, and then drops back down to where it originally was before the announcement the next day.
> 
> Considered selling, but the next few announcements are too close.
> 
> Patient is the key i guess, but i could of traded other stocks while waiting for this on the side.




I hope your not a doctor !


----------



## burglar

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ... I have chosen PEN this month in the competition, and should it win HS, I shall send you your own personal poem called " PEN ".
> 
> gg




When will you PEN this poem?


----------



## burglar

LiL_JaSoN said:


> I'm starting to loose a lot of patients for this stock.
> 
> Been hoving around the same price after every announcement. Spikes up, and then drops back down to where it originally was before the announcement the next day.
> 
> Considered selling, but the next few announcements are too close.
> 
> Patient is the key i guess, but i could of traded other stocks while waiting for this on the side.




For months, experts having been telling you that PEN has plateaued. 

It's called shareholder sentiment. 
It has precious little to do with how good the company is. 
It has to do with perception!!

JMO (I do not hold)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> I  disagree with the highlighted section.
> 
> You haven't mentioned that most of those days the sp was trading higher and it was only at close the sp was sold down and on most occasions only by a handful of shares (somedays on 2 or 3 shares changed to ensure it went lower at close) on CSPA. Noted by many watching it live on a daily basis.
> 
> That disguises what is really occurring.
> 
> Draw a few more lines and PEN is in a sideways consolidation pattern and also you could say a symmetrical triangle depending on when you commence the lines.
> 
> The highest volume being 8m on your section of chart and most of it less than a 2m shares. Hardly big volume, especially for PEN.
> 
> Considering the market general has taken a beating these last few months, PEN has held very well. It does remain to be seen if PEN goes up or down, however after listening to the live NRC meting last week and what I know to be fundamentally factual I believe *UP* has a much higher probability than down.
> 
> "catastrophic"....lol why? I would see this as simply another opportunity and anything but that. I am a long term holder so I can comment on that and my view is shared by many I discuss PEN with offline and online. Your view would be that of a non-holder or at best short term trader with ongoing negative view of PEN, so the statement is mere (wrong) assumption on your part.
> 
> I only responded in the last paragraph because of the subjective and baseless use of a dramatised expletive in an attempt to back up a personal view. Unwarranted and baseless.






hangseng said:


> It seems someone forgot to mention how devastaing Germany will beto the buyer of PEN just now
> 
> Once again the (negative) sheep simply fall off the cliff following the herd.




Hangseng mate,

I only picked PEN in the ASF Competition on your advice. This is embarrassing. I am down from .085 to .076, over 10.5% down and that after just 6 trading days, that is .0015 daily.

I am 40th in the competition out of 54.

Even nuntheweiser's loss of 6.25% on another dog, seems respectable compared to mine.

When is this haemorrhaging of Garpal Gumnut's reputation going to cease?

One good thing though, at least I don't own any.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Hangseng mate,
> *
> I only picked PEN in the ASF Competition on your advice.* This is embarrassing. I am down from .085 to .076, over 10.5% down and that after just 6 trading days, that is .0015 daily.
> 
> I am 40th in the competition out of 54.
> 
> Even nuntheweiser's loss of 6.25% on another dog, seems respectable compared to mine.
> 
> When is this haemorrhaging of Garpal Gumnut's reputation going to cease?
> 
> One good thing though, at least I don't own any.
> 
> gg





I don't give advice here or anywhere else gg. Seems you have made a personal choice, one of which I will gladly swap with you should it be permitted on the forum. Of any month to take PEN this would have been a logical choice and I was only beaten to the post by you to select it.

So anytime Joe gives permission for you to bail and swap with me I will be only too glad to "save" you lol.

My 2nd choice (SBL) isn't that crash hot either. However my main selections have been ravaged recently so no harm to my already "nuked" (dare i say) reputation one way or the other 

If PEN actually comes out with the planned major milestone announcements (6 of them), then gg's reputation will have been restored...pending the market sentiment changing accordingly. 

Otherwise you are doomed and consigned to the nuked dustbin of oblivion me old mate lol.

ps. Fear not, my money is on you going green in the tipping at the very least 

Me...I am bleeding in the tipping and seemingly likely to stay that way this month unfortunately


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I only picked PEN in the ASF Competition on your advice.



Me too, I bought PEN because it was so sought after here. I'm down heaps!


----------



## hangseng

kennas said:


> Me too, I bought PEN because it was so sought after here. I'm down heaps!




_



			You are responsible for your own investment decisions. While the forum is designed to help you acquire information which may help you in making those decisions, *you are solely responsible for analysing and verifying any information you intend to rely on*. Hangseng does not provide investment advice or make securities recommendations. In particular, Hangseng does not carry out any specific needs analysis with respect to any person.
		
Click to expand...


_
 I am still way up...and intend to be up far more 


The tide will turn.....when it does you will either be set for the ride, or you will be chasing it. I am far too old and slow to be chasing anything, patience is my greatest strength now.


http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Coordinated_US_industry_response_to_Fukushima-1006115.html

*Coordinated US industry response to Fukushima *
10 June 2011 


> Three electricity industry organizations have joined forces to integrate and coordinate the US nuclear industry's response to the Fukushima accident in Japan. *Meanwhile, a poll indicates that worldwide public support for nuclear energy remains high despite the accident*



.


----------



## theartglasshouse

I bought into PEN recently, and I am not to fussed about the downslide at the moment. Bought in at 0.08c and am happy with this. Might even buy some more if i can scrape some pennies together!!!


----------



## skc

Italy just had a referendum and they are going to continue to stay out of nuclear power. They have stayed out since Chernobyl in 1987.

So there goes a bit more of the future demand...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303714704576383452729642270.html


----------



## poverty

skc said:


> So there goes a bit more of the future demand...
> [/url]




Not really.  Do you really think even if they voted yes the italians could ever pull it together to actually build a nuclear power industry?  Couldn't organise a chook raffle, this vote is completely pointless in regards to uranium stocks.


----------



## axelord

How far below the Sp can go? A lot of negative news regarding nuclear industry future.
when the tide will turn?


----------



## Boggo

I predict that maximum it can go down from here is 6.6 cents


----------



## axelord

just hit .062 . I wonder who's selling in this price...


----------



## alexc2005

dam- it seems pulling the trigger at .07 was a stupid idea


----------



## skyQuake

axelord said:


> just hit .062 . I wonder who's selling in this price...




Same people who were calling it a table thumping buy in the 12.5~14c range and a deadset bargain in the 8c consolidation


----------



## hangseng

skyQuake said:


> Same people who were calling it a table thumping buy in the 12.5~14c range and a deadset bargain in the 8c consolidation




Rather derogatory and without proof or basis!

More meaningless throw away lines and mud slinging.


----------



## Boggo

skyQuake said:


> Same people who were calling it a table thumping buy in the 12.5~14c range and a deadset bargain in the 8c consolidation




Yep, and others were saying this...



ColB said:


> There is no denying the SP is in a downward trend but the 'probability' of the SP retreating to 0.055 is extremely remote no matter what your nice triangles, one of which defined by a natural disaster, are telling you.




Can anyone offer me a basic reason why you wouldn't bail out when it starts going down and if you do see value in it then wait until it starts turning back up before you get back in.
If its so good wouldn't you want to hold twice as many at half the price.

I am just trying to understand the mental approach, not having a go at anyone.

Same process is being drawn out on the RED thread.

Maybe its just me


----------



## Miner

Dr Cowie note on daily reckoning.

Though he has not specified PEN by name but PEN management has released this article in their website.

I am almost sure there will be some positive reaction on PEN shares on Thursday as a reaction to his article

I was hoping Hang Seng to take the honour to publish this in PEN forum. But for a change let me be his assistant 

Good luck PEN holders


----------



## axelord

could someone please predict what would be the direction of sp movement tomorrow?  Not interested what will be after 2 years...


----------



## Country Lad

axelord said:


> could someone please predict what would be the direction of sp movement tomorrow?  Not interested what will be after 2 years...




Actually there was a good observation made a while ago but most didn't listen.



tech/a said:


> This minnow is churning nothing more.
> If you care to look back it's performing as expected ranging and will do for a LONG time.--- in my not so humble technical view.




Here is another prediction:



Boggo said:


> I predict that maximum it can go down from here is 6.6 cents




Actually, the maximum it can go down from here is to zero. 

So much energy exerted in all the postings in this thread about a dog which has dropped 57% over the last 16 weeks which averages out at about 5% fall per week.  Talk about misdirected effort.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Billyb

IMHO It would be wise to avoid getting into stock until the negative sentiment stops and the share price begins to advance again. However, IMO, there's also no point in selling now because there's a very very high probability that the price will recover. It always does when the negative sentiment stops.


*Current holders and people who invest in PEN during this negative sentiment phase will undoubetdly be richer if and ONLY if PEN advances and turns out to be successful. * So the MOST important question is: Will PEN become a failure or a success. Yes that depends to some degree on future uranium prices (which depends on supply and demand and the presence of nuclear power in the world) but in reality it depends far more on whether PEN will survive through the difficult phase. We should stop spending so much time reading news articles regarding the future of uranium and spend more time keeping a close eye on the company's progress and financial position.




axelord said:


> could someone please predict what would be the direction of sp movement tomorrow?  Not interested what will be after 2 years...




If someone knew that they would be a billionaire by the end of tomorrow.

P.s my 2 cents only.


----------



## Boggo

Boggo said:


> I predict that maximum it can go down *from here* is 6.6 cents






Country Lad said:


> Actually, the maximum it can go down from here is to zero.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




That's when it was at 6.6, 6.6 less 6.6 is zero !

I do agree on the dog bit, an amusing thread though


----------



## Country Lad

Boggo said:


> That's when it was at 6.6, 6.6 less 6.6 is zero !




Sorry, Boggo, I obviously didn't read it correctly.



Boggo said:


> ...........Can anyone offer me a basic reason why you wouldn't bail out when it starts going down and if you do see value in it then wait until it starts turning back up before you get back in.
> If its so good wouldn't you want to hold twice as many at half the price.
> 
> I am just trying to understand the mental approach, not having a go at anyone.
> 
> Same process is being drawn out on the RED thread.
> 
> Maybe its just me




No, not just you, I also can not understand why anybody hangs on to a share obviously in downtrend, but maybe after 30 years playing with shares I still haven't got the hang of it.  

A good example of your point is one of my favourite holding, MSB.  I have on a number of occasions sold when a trend downwards became obvious and then invested the same value when the trend changed to up. Initially I had bought a small parcel of 15,000 in Sep 2005.  I now hold six times this initial parcel without investing one more cent. 

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## hangseng

Miner said:


> Dr Cowie note on daily reckoning.
> 
> Though he has not specified PEN by name but PEN management has released this article in their website.
> 
> I am almost sure there will be some positive reaction on PEN shares on Thursday as a reaction to his article
> 
> I was hoping Hang Seng to take the honour to publish this in PEN forum. But for a change let me be his assistant
> 
> Good luck PEN holders




Well done Miner.

I had only just opened my email to see this a moment ago.

Most of it I have expelled since the rot set in, however there is a telling point that really should be highlighted. PEN is securing US contracts (not German, Italian or Japanese) at the *"LONG TERM CONTRACT PRICE"* and escalated at that. 

I agree the uranium market will turn, and PEN along with it. So much so I have freed up enough funds to purchase another 1.5m PEN shares. I will be doing some _"grave dancing"_ of my own, on the shares that someone no doubt will offload to me fairly shortly I suspect.

My long term view has not changed, neither has PEN's fundamentals except to improve substantially. 

Today the next producer of uranium was the biggest % fall in all of the uranium stocks. This is beyond comprehension and so illogical as to bring me to the conclusion PEN is being mercilessly sold off by irrational and illogical fear and nothing more.

This is buy time for me, I will gladly take up what others can't or won't see. This time next year I will be seen either as an astute investor, or an extremely stupid one. I believe the former will be most likely to occur.

I have done all the homework I need and PEN is going to be a great company. What happens short term means little, it is pay day that I am looking forward to now.

Some can see it, some can't...so be it.


----------



## Boggo

Country Lad said:


> I have on a number of occasions sold when a trend downwards became obvious and then invested the same value when the trend changed to up. Initially I had bought a small parcel of 15,000 in Sep 2005.  I now hold six times this initial parcel without investing one more cent.







hangseng said:


> This time next year I will be seen either as an astute investor, or an extremely stupid one. I believe the former will be most likely to occur.




HS, with all due respect mate, at the moment you would have to admit that you are taking a gamble.
The post I have quoted by Country Lad is what I consider to be a perfect example of what an astute investor would do, ie, accumulate more if you really believe in the stock.
I have added an extra 17100 PRR shares to my original outlay without spending any extra money (and it keeps the broker happy  )
That method is precisely what I was referring to in an earlier post.

Do you not see the sense in that approach, he would be buying double what he originally sold without outlaying an extra cent.
Market or individual stock price corrections are much better money makers than just buying and holding even if the stock is continuing to rise, it just requires some management.

Not having a go HS, just trying to comprehend the logic based on the assumption that you are here to make money.


----------



## Country Lad

Boggo said:


> Do you not see the sense in that approach, he would be buying double what he originally sold without outlaying an extra cent.




There is a corollary and using PEN as an example, it has fallen 57%.  This means that holding on all the way down, it will require a rise of 133% just to get back to where it was and it is likely that if it does somehow manage to increase that much, it will take a substantial period of time.

So there is the cost of lost opportunity had the shares been sold early in their fall and then invested in one rising.  

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## tech/a

CL BOGGO and others 
I will start another thread so 
(1) we don't get accused of side teaming the Pen thread
(2) we have somewhere to discuss not only Pen but other threads and attitudes to them which are clearly poor trading practices--- and others can join in the discussion.

Both of you have been around long enough to have a good grasp of the topic.
CL must have had his 80th birthday by now !


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> HS, with all due respect mate, at the moment you would have to admit that you are taking a gamble.
> The post I have quoted by Country Lad is what I consider to be a perfect example of what an astute investor would do, ie, accumulate more if you really believe in the stock.
> I have added an extra 17100 PRR shares to my original outlay without spending any extra money (and it keeps the broker happy  )
> That method is precisely what I was referring to in an earlier post.
> 
> Do you not see the sense in that approach, he would be buying double what he originally sold without outlaying an extra cent.
> Market or individual stock price corrections are much better money makers than just buying and holding even if the stock is continuing to rise, it just requires some management.
> 
> Not having a go HS, just trying to comprehend the logic based on the assumption that you are here to make money.




Hold that thought boggo...Firstly I don't gamble, I do take highly calculated risks based on factual information and knowledge. I don't bet on horses, play cards, spin the wheel  or flip coins. I am a risk analyst with in depth working knowledge of the sector I choose to invest in.

This morning bought my largest single parcel of PEN being 1.5m shares by simply sitting and waiting at what I believed would be the turning point. I missed the bottom by .002 and I dont regret it one bit. I had to make some rather large adjustments to accomodate this but it was woth it.

I buy and hold PEN as a* long term investment*, I dont get perturbed by irrational and illogical events such has recently occurred. I concentrate on what is fundamentally happening with the company and PEN is going from strength to strength in that regard.

As I said I will be judged next year as to whether I was right or wrong. What short term traders think of me now means little to nothing to me.

Each to their own but what I am doing is and has been making me a lot of money. More than any so called fund manager ever did for me.

I am also a very patient person...I look for "hitting out of the ballpark" opportunities, I am sure you know what I am referring to.

IMO one is staring people in the faces right now and they either won't or can't see it for whatever reason. It isn't popular being a contrarian investor, but it sure as hell is profitable.


----------



## Boggo

Thats fair enough, I understand where you are coming from.

Not my way of doing it, in, out, park the profit and then back in for 3 million at the turn would be my approach.


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> Thats fair enough, I understand where you are coming from.
> 
> Not my way of doing it, in, out, park the profit and then back in for 3 million at the turn would be my approach.




Of which is all good if:


You manage to perfectly pick every turn
Have the time to watch every movement every day
Are happy not to have the taxation benefits of long term hold and prefer to pay the tax at a higher rate as you go.
Can be bothered with ethe need to studiously and religously monitor every trade going through to identify what you believe is the turn (refer to point 2)
Enjoy paying brokerage (win or lose)
Have the discipline to take losses quickly and accept they will be losses along the way as nobody picks perfectly every swing.


I actually respect (open and honest) traders who do all of the above and are successful at it. However I have seen quite a few that thought they would make a killing and simply didn't. I simply don't have the time to do so....Yet 

My method isn't always successful however I am doing far better than I ever did trying to pick the next winner and trading it. 

With a crystal ball I would have sold at 15.5 and then bought back at 5.6...the perfect trade. I don't know of one person with that level of skill, let alone crystal ball gazing ability. If they exist here it would be outstanding if they shared with all this great and unique skill that no doubt has made them millionaires >10 times over.

Each method has its place, both need to be "managed".


----------



## Billyb

hangseng said:


> This morning bought my largest single parcel of PEN being 1.5m shares by simply sitting and waiting at what I believed would be the turning point. I missed the bottom by .002




How do you know we hit the bottom? Could the share price not fall again tomorrow? Just asking out of curiosity, that's all.


----------



## ob1kinobi

Boggo and Country Lad,

Interested to know your reasons for calling PEN a dog?

What is your basis for this analysis?

Is it simply the SP falling or have you an understanding of the FA of this particular CO/Sector and its longer term prospects.

I don't have a great understanding of the FA myself other than the LT need for energy sources but it seems a bit premature to be calling a CO a dog when its yet to begin producing anything.

Has the PEN story even started yet? (As an earlier contributor wrote around the time of the Tsunami)

I'd be interested to hear your views and am hoping you both have something more to offer than the perennial TA vs FA debate.


----------



## Country Lad

ob1kinobi said:


> Interested to know your reasons for calling PEN a dog?




Simply my description of a share whose price has performed rather abysmally. In my mind anything that has fallen 57% and at a fairly rapid rate averaging 5% per week is a dog regardless of how some people may positively interpret the fundamentals.  The market has given its verdict on the company and the fundamentals for the time being.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## tothemax6

hangseng said:


> I buy and hold PEN as a* long term investment*, I dont get perturbed by irrational and illogical events such has recently occurred. I concentrate on what is fundamentally happening with the company and PEN is going from strength to strength in that regard.



Yes I must say that the stock does smell like value. It appears to have been having good announcements for quite some time, but the stock has been on the way down ever since the collapse+bounce following the Fukushima incident.
Ultimately I don't see countries ditching uranium as a fuel, despite all the fear following Germany's new anti-nuclear stance. The US, India, China, Britain, even Japan have made it very clear that there will be no roll back on nuclear construction plans (although all have made noises to the effect of 'we will be more careful'). Practically speaking, ditching nuclear power is completely impossible and unreasonable.
In my opinion people are discounting PEN stock too much.


----------



## Boggo

ob1kinobi said:


> Boggo and Country Lad,
> 
> Interested to know your reasons for calling PEN a dog?
> 
> What is your basis for this analysis?
> 
> I'd be interested to hear your views and am hoping you both have something more to offer than the perennial TA vs FA debate.




No need to involve either TA or FA to see that something that drops from around 15c to 6c can't be classed as a blue chip investment, call it what you like but I reckon its fair game.

Even at its high of around 15c it is still a pup.
It probably will rise again and it will probably get my interest as it did with others when it made them 30%+ on the way up last time.
I actually see its current behaviour as that of a stock that is oversold but that doesn't make it any less a dog at the moment until proves otherwise.

Specky stocks seem to have a lot of smart traders on the way up but the ones who hang on and give back their profits become investors on way down


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> This morning bought my largest single parcel of PEN being 1.5m shares by simply sitting and waiting at what I believed would be the turning point. I missed the bottom by .002 and I dont regret it one bit. I had to make some rather large adjustments to accomodate this but it was woth it.
> 
> I buy and hold PEN as a* long term investment*, I dont get perturbed by irrational and illogical events such has recently occurred. I concentrate on what is fundamentally happening with the company and PEN is going from strength to strength in that regard.
> 
> As I said I will be judged next year as to whether I was right or wrong. What short term traders think of me now means little to nothing to me.
> 
> Each to their own but what I am doing is and has been making me a lot of money. More than any so called fund manager ever did for me.
> 
> I am also a very patient person...I look for "hitting out of the ballpark" opportunities, I am sure you know what I am referring to.
> 
> IMO one is staring people in the faces right now and they either won't or can't see it for whatever reason. It isn't popular being a contrarian investor, but it sure as hell is profitable.






I admire your sentiments hs, however as a chartist I recognise that investors can never trust all the fundamental information they accept as reasons for their investments in stocks because 


1.  It is false
2.  It is not timely
3.  It is filtered with essental information removed
4.  It is embellished 
5.  It is incomplete


One or more or all of the above seem to operate with PEN.

It is a sick puppy and should it continue it's dowmward path it will soon be worth zilch.

Somehow I feel you are not in possession of all the facts, or else you are.


gg


----------



## skc

tothemax6 said:


> Yes I must say that the stock does smell like value. It appears to have been having good announcements for quite some time, but the stock has been on the way down ever since the collapse+bounce following the Fukushima incident.
> Ultimately I don't see countries ditching uranium as a fuel, despite all the fear following Germany's new anti-nuclear stance. The US, India, China, Britain, even Japan have made it very clear that there will be no roll back on nuclear construction plans (although all have made noises to the effect of 'we will be more careful'). Practically speaking, ditching nuclear power is completely impossible and unreasonable.
> In my opinion people are discounting PEN stock too much.




What I don't understand is, if one is bullish uranium (which may not be correct but certainly valid), why wouldn't you just buy something like PDN that has fallen just as much but is actually producing...


----------



## barney

Country Lad said:


> Simply my description of a share whose price has performed rather abysmally. In my mind anything that has fallen 57% and at a fairly rapid rate averaging 5% per week is a dog regardless of how some people may positively interpret the fundamentals.  The market has given its verdict on the company and the fundamentals for the time being.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




Hi CL,  

You make many sensible and valid points ..... however, just for balance ...... numbers and percentages are just that, and can be manipulated and twisted to seem whatever we want them to.

If I can give an alternative set of numbers to make my point ......

Example:-

I purchased *1000 BHP shares *at the swing low on 26th February at $37  and sold them at yesterdays low of $42.72

Cost ... $37,000 ...... Sell  $42,720  ....... *Profit $5,720*


I purchased *$37,000  of PEN shares *on the 26th february at the swing low of 0.037 .... and sold them at yesterdays low of 0.062 cents for $62,000 for a *profit of $25,000 *

Your point that PEN has dropped 57% from its recent high is totally correct, and anyone who bought at 15 cents should have been well out long ago ......  but taking a snapshot of any stock can often give misleading results.  In my example, PEN has actually outperformed much of the market in the chosen time frame, and that includes the 57% decimation after the tsunami   ..... 

Cheers.


----------



## Boggo

barney said:


> I purchased *$37,000  of PEN shares *on the 26th february at the swing low of 0.037 .... and sold them at yesterdays low of 0.062 cents for $62,000 for a *profit of $25,000 *




Begs the obvious question, why didn't you sell at 12 to 12.5 when it was obvious that reality was about to kick in, you would have had double that profit


----------



## barney

Boggo said:


> Begs the obvious question, why didn't you sell at 12 to 12.5 when it was obvious that reality was about to kick in, you would have had double that profit




Howdy Boggo,

Certainly not advocating holding onto losers:  My point was purely a hypothetical to display the relative performance of the stock which is not as bad as some here are touting .........  The big guns of PDN and ERA have faired much worse. 


To answer your above question in one word ..... TAX. 
When holding a 350+% profit, I preferred to sit out a 20% retacement than give 50% to the TAX man .... Unfortunately, the tsunami flattened more than just Japan 

PS Currently holding no PEN shares ...(They went with the big wave)   Holding PENOC's only


----------



## Country Lad

barney said:


> Your point that PEN has dropped 57% from its recent high is totally correct, and anyone who bought at 15 cents should have been well out long ago ......  .




barney, I fully agree with your calculations and that is the way that shares should be traded.

Unfortunately you are missing the point.  The debate here has been one of a number of people holding the shares all the way down without a thought of selling them, and selling, as your quote above rightly points out, was the correct thing to do - but they didn't.   My point is that making the profits out of trading as you describe should be the objective of the game, not holding on during a long downtrend stretching to 57% drop in value and then hoping they will go up again by about 130% to break even.

What you are saying reinforces my argument and is precisely what the example I gave below of my MSB trading does.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## skc

barney said:


> Howdy Boggo,
> 
> Certainly not advocating holding onto losers:  My point was purely a hypothetical to display the relative performance of the stock which is not as bad as some here are touting .........  The big guns of PDN and ERA have faired much worse.
> 
> 
> To answer your above question in one word ..... TAX.
> When holding a 350+% profit, I preferred to sit out a 20% retacement than give 50% to the TAX man .... Unfortunately, the tsunami flattened more than just Japan
> 
> PS Currently holding no PEN shares ...(They went with the big wave)   Holding PENOC's only




Tax matters but not to such extent.

Say you bought $1 now $3.5 so 350% profit. At highest marginal tax rate of 47% you net profit after tax is ($3.5-$1)*(1-47%) = $1.325 per share.

Say the stock retraced 20% but you qualify for reduced CGT, your profit after tax is 
($3.5*0.8-$1)*(1-47%/2) = $1.377 per share.

Do the same calculation for a 57% retracement and tell me you are better off...


----------



## Miner

I thought the PEN enthusiastics have read the press news regarding DFS time frame etc.

Good luck


----------



## Boggo

Miner said:


> I thought the PEN enthusiastics have read the press news regarding DFS time frame etc.
> 
> Good luck




Just more of the same Miner, compare the price action over the same period.


----------



## Boggo

Ignoring all the reports that this mob regurgitates and all the endearing investment analysis posts, there could be a few bucks in this if/when it closes above 0.071.

Hit and run tactics could be fun and worth a few $$, don't stay long enough to become an investor though 

(click to expand)


----------



## Miner

Hartley's Report published slightly later than DFS notiifcation by PEN themselves.

Good luck with some postive vibe returned on PEN in an other wise depressing market.
Let us keep fingers crossed that fundamental values will prevail over normal sentiment against uranium for all holders and business in general


----------



## tech/a

Double bottom
Where I'd be buying and where I'd have a stop.
Soaking up the Sun in Venice currently so will have to be a call for the record only.
Sporting a mediterrainian tan I might add----RED.


----------



## barney

skc said:


> Tax matters but not to such extent.
> 
> Say you bought $1 now $3.5 so 350% profit. At highest marginal tax rate of 47% you net profit after tax is ($3.5-$1)*(1-47%) = $1.325 per share.
> 
> Say the stock retraced 20% but you qualify for reduced CGT, your profit after tax is
> ($3.5*0.8-$1)*(1-47%/2) = $1.377 per share.
> 
> Do the same calculation for a 57% retracement and tell me you are better off...




Thanks for your input SKC .... Always appreciated.

Basic mathematics I was quite good at, but some of this relative calculation stuff I struggle with.  I trade purely discretionary and my mathematics is only ballpark at best.   Perhaps the PEN thread may not be the ideal place, but considering my personal "numbers" are PEN related, perhaps it may be appropriate ....

Lets say I had $20,000 invested in PEN at an average of 4 cents/share

If I were to sell the shares in the current financal year, my tax rate is 40%  (don't qualify for any  GCT rebate)

If I were to sell the shares in the next financial year my tax rate will only be 20%

Assuming the shares have currently increased to a 350% paper profit,  how far do the shares have to drop from the high point to indicate that selling in the current financial year (40% tax) will be at least similar to holding and selling in the next financial year (20% tax)

Hope that makes sense

Cheers


----------



## skc

barney said:


> Thanks for your input SKC .... Always appreciated.
> 
> Basic mathematics I was quite good at, but some of this relative calculation stuff I struggle with.  I trade purely discretionary and my mathematics is only ballpark at best.   Perhaps the PEN thread may not be the ideal place, but considering my personal "numbers" are PEN related, perhaps it may be appropriate ....
> 
> Lets say I had $20,000 invested in PEN at an average of 4 cents/share
> 
> If I were to sell the shares in the current financal year, my tax rate is 40%  (don't qualify for any  GCT rebate)
> 
> If I were to sell the shares in the next financial year my tax rate will only be 20%
> 
> Assuming the shares have currently increased to a 350% paper profit,  how far do the shares have to drop from the high point to indicate that selling in the current financial year (40% tax) will be at least similar to holding and selling in the next financial year (20% tax)
> 
> Hope that makes sense
> 
> Cheers




Your NPAT = No. of shares x (sell price - buy price) * (1- tax rate).

With your figures that's $30K @ 40% tax rate.

Now rearrange the equation to solve for "sell price".

Sell price = (NPAT/(1-tax rate))/(No. of shares) + buy price

Plug in your target NPAT ($30K) and the reduced tax rate (20%), you get sell price = 11.5c. 

So if you hold more than 1 year and sell at 11.5c you would have the same profit after tax as if you sold at 14c. Check the answer with the original equation and you get $30K profit as before.

The practical application of this is very tricky however. Share price is 14c but you have 2 months to wait for the tax to be halved... what do you do? There's probably some smart option-style calculations that can be done to see whether it's worth waiting 2 months. And if there wasn't the Japan earthquake you most likely would have made the right decision to hold.


----------



## barney

skc said:


> Your NPAT = No. of shares x (sell price - buy price) * (1- tax rate).
> 
> With your figures that's $30K @ 40% tax rate.
> 
> Now rearrange the equation to solve for "sell price".
> 
> Sell price = (NPAT/(1-tax rate))/(No. of shares) + buy price
> 
> Plug in your target NPAT ($30K) and the reduced tax rate (20%), you get sell price = 11.5c.
> 
> So if you hold more than 1 year and sell at 11.5c you would have the same profit after tax as if you sold at 14c. Check the answer with the original equation and you get $30K profit as before.
> 
> The practical application of this is very tricky however. Share price is 14c but you have 2 months to wait for the tax to be halved... what do you do? There's probably some smart option-style calculations that can be done to see whether it's worth waiting 2 months. And if there wasn't the Japan earthquake you most likely would have made the right decision to hold.




Cheers for that  ....... I can't believe you can come up with this stuff at the drop of a hat 

The tsunami was certainly a black swan which many including myself had not calculated for.  In hindsight ..... and I think hindsight is generally wasted analysis ..... if I had the trade over again, I would take a bit more profit off the table on the way up .... 

Fear and Greed ..... Both of the "brothers" cost us money at some point!!  ..... but it keeps life interesting

Thanks again ... your maths is very much repected


----------



## barney

Country Lad said:


> barney, I fully agree with your calculations and that is the way that shares should be traded.
> 
> Unfortunately you are missing the point.




Totally understand and appreciate your recent comments CL.  

My previous posts were simply to defend the "dog status" attributed to PEN, when in fact it has actually out preformed many "higher quality" stocks if we consider the 400% rise prior to the 57% fall of late .......... 

Cheers.  




skc said:


> The practical application of this is very tricky however. Share price is 14c but you have 2 months to wait for the tax to be halved... what do you do? There's probably some smart option-style calculations that can be done to see whether it's worth waiting 2 months. And if there wasn't the Japan earthquake you most likely would have made the right decision to hold.





SKC, I have done a mechanical calculation (can't get my brain around the actual maths equations 

In the example I gave, I estimate ............ *A share could drop 25% of its increased profit and return the same NPAT if the tax rate halved from 40% to 20%*

ie  Just an example .......

100,000 shares purchased at 4 cents ($4000)  

Share price reaches 12 cents  (value= $12,000)

Tax on *profit* if sold at 12 cents @ 40% tax is $8,000 X 40% = $3,200   = *$4,800 NPAT*



Assume *25% drop in the profit *aspect of  the share value (8 cents - 25%= 6 cents)

Value of shares (4 cents/original cost + 6 cents/profit)= 10 cents = $10,000

Tax on profit if sold at 10 cents @ 20% tax is $6,000 X 20%= $1200 = *$4,800 NPAT*

I assume this should marry up with the "real" mathematical functions you mentioned .... would you mind double checking me?

Cheers.


----------



## skc

barney said:


> SKC, I have done a mechanical calculation (can't get my brain around the actual maths equations
> 
> In the example I gave, I estimate ............ *A share could drop 25% of its increased profit and return the same NPAT if the tax rate halved from 40% to 20%*
> 
> ie  Just an example .......
> 
> 100,000 shares purchased at 4 cents ($4000)
> 
> Share price reaches 12 cents  (value= $12,000)
> 
> Tax on *profit* if sold at 12 cents @ 40% tax is $8,000 X 40% = $3,200   = *$4,800 NPAT*
> 
> 
> 
> Assume *25% drop in the profit *aspect of  the share value (8 cents - 25%= 6 cents)
> 
> Value of shares (4 cents/original cost + 6 cents/profit)= 10 cents = $10,000
> 
> Tax on profit if sold at 10 cents @ 20% tax is $6,000 X 20%= $1200 = *$4,800 NPAT*
> 
> I assume this should marry up with the "real" mathematical functions you mentioned .... would you mind double checking me?
> 
> Cheers.




That's right. But there is an even simpler way of looking at it.

At the higher tax you pocket 60% of the profits. At the lower tax rate you pocket 80%. So the ratio is 60%/80% or 0.75. So it basically means that your profit can shrink by the same factor and your NPAT will be the same.

In the example above your starting profit was 8c. So it can fall to 0.75x8c = 6c for you to get the same NPAT at the lower tax rate. A 6c profit = 10c share price, as per your calculation.

BTW my charge out fee is $260 per hour + GST, with minimum charge in 8 hr blocks. Invoice is on the way.


----------



## tothemax6

skc said:


> What I don't understand is, if one is bullish uranium (which may not be correct but certainly valid), why wouldn't you just buy something like PDN that has fallen just as much but is actually producing...



Hah, so it has. I hadn't seen PDNs chart recently. Maybe there will be value in PDN too. I'm not bullish uranium, or anything else for that matter. There are a few more issues that have yet to resolve that have influence on nuclear fuel demand (waiting for China blowoff for one). But soon, soon. Coal may be cheap, but the energy density is in uranium.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

barney said:


> Totally understand and appreciate your recent comments CL.
> 
> My previous posts were simply to defend the "dog status" attributed to PEN, when in fact it has actually out preformed many "higher quality" stocks if we consider the 400% rise prior to the 57% fall of late ..........
> 
> Cheers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> SKC, I have done a mechanical calculation (can't get my brain around the actual maths equations
> 
> In the example I gave, I estimate ............ *A share could drop 25% of its increased profit and return the same NPAT if the tax rate halved from 40% to 20%*
> 
> ie  Just an example .......
> 
> 100,000 shares purchased at 4 cents ($4000)
> 
> Share price reaches 12 cents  (value= $12,000)
> 
> Tax on *profit* if sold at 12 cents @ 40% tax is $8,000 X 40% = $3,200   = *$4,800 NPAT*
> 
> 
> 
> Assume *25% drop in the profit *aspect of  the share value (8 cents - 25%= 6 cents)
> 
> Value of shares (4 cents/original cost + 6 cents/profit)= 10 cents = $10,000
> 
> Tax on profit if sold at 10 cents @ 20% tax is $6,000 X 20%= $1200 = *$4,800 NPAT*
> 
> I assume this should marry up with the "real" mathematical functions you mentioned .... would you mind double checking me?
> 
> Cheers.




barney mate,

All your calculations take naught away from the fact that PEN is a dog of a stock.

It is followed by those who would have no problems in getting roles in "The Life of Brian, The Sequel"

It has tenements, and it has directors who are not newts or pisspots, and that is all it has, apart from the cast of "Brian".

It is a reasonable stock in the wrong decade.

It is A Dead Parrot.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It is interesting that ASF is the only forum to cast PEN as a dog, and it's adherents mullahs at a christening.

Let us see the open tomorrow.

gg


----------



## barney

skc said:


> BTW my charge out fee is $260 per hour + GST, with minimum charge in 8 hr blocks. Invoice is on the way.




 .......  I'll take 2X 8 hour blocks .... and give yourself a 20% bonus from me.

ps The Invoice address I gave you was bogus!:






Garpal Gumnut said:


> barney mate,
> 
> All your calculations take naught away from the fact that PEN is a dog of a stock.
> 
> It is followed by those who would have no problems in getting roles in "The Life of Brian, The Sequel"
> 
> It has tenements, and it has directors who are not newts or pisspots, and that is all it has, apart from the cast of "Brian".
> 
> It is a reasonable stock in the wrong decade.
> 
> It is A Dead Parrot.
> 
> gg





No worries GG ..... It does look currently pressured I agree, although personally this puppy treated me just fine

ps Also a M P fan


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> barney mate,
> 
> All your calculations take naught away from the fact that PEN is a dog of a stock.
> 
> It is followed by those who would have no problems in getting roles in "The Life of Brian, The Sequel"
> 
> *It has tenements, and it has directors who are not newts or pisspots, and that is all it has*, apart from the cast of "Brian".
> 
> It is a reasonable stock in the wrong decade.
> 
> It is A Dead Parrot.
> 
> gg






Long time since I saw a post like that. The last time was on EXT post consolidation. Same term used as well "dog of a stock". Also was termed a "dog with fleas" etc etc etc, along with bagging the directors and stating everthing from country risk to why would you buy EXT when you can buy a "quality stock" like BMN, some even saying buy BLR and PNN instead of PEN. The latter 3 would have been a great move...NOT! All true dogs that have been flogged by the market far more than PEN.

So we forget, they have no debt and over $30m cash in the bank, are a near producer of U ahead of all peers, and have only touched on 10% of the resource area to date?

If that is the "L'o'B" then happy to be a part of it. I didn't take any offence to your baseless offensive post as it is so out there as to be ridiculous.

Why oh why you picked PEN in the comp if PEN is such a dog?

Heard it all before, same old same old. If the stock doesn't move massive amounts in a short time frame, or a short term traders intended timeframe then it's a dog. Easy remedy, don't buy into PEN.

I bought another 1.5m at 6.1 last week at the expense of some so called great stocks and it has proved to be a great move. I get the tax credits on the "great" stocks and already in the money on PEN as expected. Not the first time I have done this either, both times PEN winning out.

More like a major show winning pedigree "dog" according to my portfolio. At this rate by the time PEN hits production I should have a very tidy sum put away.


----------



## tech/a

Evert dog has it's day
But you need t I know how to handle a dog before owning it.
Most dog owners become very attached to their dog.
Others who know that their dog is a workin dog--- know when to feed it and how much
And when to reward it with a pat.
Other than that dogs should be left alone ---  unless as is the case with a few dog owners here-- it becomes a pet!


----------



## hangseng

New BRR for broadcast for PEN...

Really worth a listen...

... except for our trader friends here as they don't care for positive fundamentals. Preferring rather to write superfluous fairy stories and have a go at investors as if they are superior beings lol...

Good luck with your trading, I am now well on the way to make some serious money with excellent tax benefits (IMO of course ).


http://ss01.boardroomradio.com/files/PEN/PEN20110620.mp3


----------



## axelord

I just got ride of the"dog" today..with a heavy loss . 
I will see if i can have an entry next FY at 6.1..I would go for 1.5 m too


----------



## Country Lad

axelord said:


> I just got ride of the"dog" today..with a heavy loss .




Unfortunately both the announcement of the audio of the "major upgrade" or hangseng's ramping didn't work.

When an announcement is made I like to see the effect of the announcement from the market's initial reaction before deciding whether or not trade.  

Looking at the price weighted volume:

Up to the announcement, the ratio of Buy trades to Sell trades was a positive 2.82
Between the time of the announcements and hangseng's ramp this had dropped to 1.88
From Hangseng's post to close it had gone to negative (more sell trades than buy trades) 3.46
The last 20 trades up to close was negative 12.06.

Market was not impressed.  Sentiment may change tomorrow or it may not.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## hangseng

Country Lad said:


> Unfortunately both the announcement of the audio of the "major upgrade" or hangseng's ramping didn't work.
> 
> When an announcement is made I like to see the effect of the announcement from the market's initial reaction before deciding whether or not trade.
> 
> Looking at the price weighted volume:
> 
> Up to the announcement, the ratio of Buy trades to Sell trades was a positive 2.82
> Between the time of the announcements and hangseng's ramp this had dropped to 1.88
> From Hangseng's post to close it had gone to negative (more sell trades than buy trades) 3.46
> The last 20 trades up to close was negative 12.06.
> 
> Market was not impressed.  Sentiment may change tomorrow or it may not.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad





So my posts are now used as a measure???...interesting to state the least.

More unnecessary derogatory comments , hold those thoughts.


----------



## Piggy Bank

Hey hangseng,

Todays announcement must be music to your ears...

Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an
agreement to raise A$15,000,000 through a private placement to NuCore Energy LLC, a
North American company whose focus is the commercial nuclear fuels market and services
sector.

The Placement is priced at a 50% premium to the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) in the period immediately following publication of the Company’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) at the Lance Projects in Wyoming, USA (Lance) and includes one free attaching listed option exercisable at 3 cents on or before 31 December 2015 (PENOC) for every share subscribed (Strategic Placement).


----------



## skc

Piggy Bank said:


> Hey hangseng,
> 
> Todays announcement must be music to your ears...
> 
> Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an
> agreement to raise A$15,000,000 through a private placement to NuCore Energy LLC, a
> North American company whose focus is the commercial nuclear fuels market and services
> sector.
> 
> The Placement is priced at a 50% premium to the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) in the period immediately following publication of the Company’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) at the Lance Projects in Wyoming, USA (Lance) and includes one free attaching listed option exercisable at 3 cents on or before 31 December 2015 (PENOC) for every share subscribed (Strategic Placement).




Doesn't this free option @ 3c pretty much negates the 50% premium? At 7c share price, they pay 10.5c for each new share but get an oppie that's 4c in the money...

Well at least they raised some funds without much of a discount in the current environment which is an achievement.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

skc said:


> Doesn't this free option @ 3c pretty much negates the 50% premium? At 7c share price, they pay 10.5c for each new share but get an oppie that's 4c in the money...
> 
> Well at least they raised some funds without much of a discount in the current environment which is an achievement.



Not sure I understand your praise. At 7c share price they get 2 shares for 13.5c (10.5c + 3c). Therefore, they've been granted shares at a discount (4%), if they decide to buy the options now. PLUS they've just diluted the shares on offer.


----------



## skc

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Not sure I understand your praise. At 7c share price they get 2 shares for 13.5c (10.5c + 3c). Therefore, they've been granted shares at a discount (4%), if they decide to buy the options now. PLUS they've just diluted the shares on offer.




Most fund raisings are done on discount to existing price - that's just the reality when you want to sell a large block of shares in an instance. 4% discount is very small considering the state of the market and the industry.

APA (a solid utility) raised some money today at $3.85 or 8.1% discount to the last traded price. Go to the more speculative end, say TRH, who last week placed at 56c on last trade price of 70c...or 20% discount.


----------



## hangseng

I am posting the text in the quote below from afar courtesy of a poster by the name of "jamiebook" as it is a good observation collated into one. Draw your own conclusions, I have mine and saw the same thing occur in 2009 and again in 2010 before the run up to 15.

_



			I'm going to post some information here, and try to wrap my head around what it means. What I'm doing is posting every price sensitive piece of information since the 05/05 and the opening and closing SP. in the order of opening, date, closing, announcement. 

.081 - 05/05 - .083 - new roll front system + high grade drill results
.085 - 12/05 - .083 - Outstanding U and associated Mo grades Karoo
.083 - 16/05 - .079 - Ross ISR Permitting ahead of schedule
.079 - 08/06 - .076 - High Grade U results
.070 - 17/06 - .068 - Major resource upgrade
.067 - 23/06 - .067 - Strategic Alliance 

Alrighty then!.. we have.. 6 seemingly incredibly positive announcements. But, the shareprice has been dropping this whole time. Surely not on the U price because spot and long-term have been relatively flat in the past two months. 

So logically that would suggest that the results being returned are less than the market expected.. But wait! a 25% resource upgrade. Well, the market can't of expected that and they definately couldn't have already factored it into the SP (the SP would have had to have gone up on continued high grade results and higher resource estimates, not down, if that were the case). 

We have seen one out of six positive announcements return a price increase, which was the first, and was quickly quashed by the next 5 positive announcements which all returned negative results. 

It is actually possible to draw a logical conclusion suggesting we should see a decrease in the SP on the back of a good and possibly/probably better than expected DFS.
source: "jamiebook" from another forum
		
Click to expand...


_

Also ponder the stacked sell side of PEN as of todays announcement...al the way to $3.00 lol

*1,234,567*

Source: Me - from EtradePro after market close today.


----------



## Country Lad

I have seen over exposure with many spekkies, they announce too much and the market becomes blasÃ© and eventually the really good news has no effect.  PEN has made 15 non statutory announcements in 3 months, or one every 4 trading days and total of 32 or 1 every 2 trading days on average.

Too much noise maybe?

The initial response today was positive with the volume weighted buy:sell ratio being 1.8 to 1 and the price up 4.4%.  For the rest of the day the volume was only just over half of the first hour and the buy:sell ratio 0.7.  

Reaction seems to be one of ho hum, another nannouncement.


Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## hangseng

Country Lad said:


> I have seen over exposure with many spekkies, they announce too much and the market becomes blasÃ© and eventually the really good news has no effect.  PEN has made 15 non statutory announcements in 3 months, or one every 4 trading days and total of 32 or 1 every 2 trading days on average.
> 
> Too much noise maybe?
> 
> The initial response today was positive with the volume weighted buy:sell ratio being 1.8 to 1 and the price up 4.4%.  For the rest of the day the volume was only just over half of the first hour and the buy:sell ratio 0.7.
> 
> Reaction seems to be one of ho hum, another nannouncement.
> 
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad






May very well be who knows. What we do know is people constantly belly ache about companies that don't keep the market informed, also that PEN actually does have information to announce that must be announced.

So considering the latter and your thoughts the market is bored by a rapidly advancing company...I think not. 

Even if "they" were bored it displays how totally fickle people really are. On one hand they complain that companies don't announce enough and in the case of PEN your assumption is they may be bored by the consistent positive updates. I sure as hell aren't bored and I have been around here longer than most.

I believe more likely games have been played for some time and will continue to be until at least 10 days after the DFS release.

Time will tell all.


I wonder if _"1,234,567"_ reads forums, my bet is he/she does.


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> *1,234,567*




No surprise to me to see some additional "code" numbers on the PEN market depth HS;

If the group of boyz who have been working this over for the past few months would like to include me so I don't blow their cover, please PM me  (The number *13* has been very significant!!)

ps We've had a tsunami ... we've had a severe market downturn .... Uranium stocks pulverised around the globe ... and PEN management organise a 15 million dollar funding arrangement!!   ...... Dog stock??   I don't think so


----------



## tech/a

Capital raising of 15 million is bugger all.
If they were looking for a few 100 million then you could get excited.
A decient property development would be more than $15 mill!

Why all the excitement?


----------



## Miner

I will not suggest  $15 M fund raising by PEN was very tiny and should require around $100 M.

The fact it demonstrates no matter what the market noise about PEN, the funding organisation and NUCOR (I wish we all understand the strength of this organisation and capability) have definitely considered the business case  to put their money on PEN. 

How the suggestion $100 M figure came  without knowing the BFS estimate ?

The $15 M  to fund working capital, exploration etc as stated in the announcement.
I will rather  read the summary of BFS (Bankable Feasibility Study) when it comes to market.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Capital raising of 15 million is bugger all.
> If they were looking for a few 100 million then you could get excited.
> A decient property development would be more than $15 mill!
> 
> Why all the excitement?




You didn't actually read the announcement did you tech:  ..... Its not the $15 million dollars, although that will come in handy.  

Just to refresh .....

Under the terms of the Share Placement, Peninsula will appoint Mr Jim Cornell to the Board *as Executive Director–Sales and Marketing*.
 

Who is this Mr Cornell I hear you ask?

While he was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Nukem, the company grew into one of the *largest suppliers of nuclear fuel worldwide*.

Based on annual uranium deliveries, it continues to rank along with Cameco, AREVA, Rio Tinto Uranium, and BHP Billiton *in the top five uranium suppliers*. Mr. Cornell’s *principal responsibilities involved the management of Nukem’s uranium purchase and sale agreements*, as well as its inventory holdings. 

While at Nukem, Mr. Cornell served as one of the principal negotiators of the historic U.S.-Russian HEU Agreement and negotiated long-term uranium marketing arrangements with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In addition, *he developed long-term teaming arrangements with major industry participants *including General Electric, Westinghouse, Cameco, AREVA and Babcock and Wilcox. 

*Mr. Cornell is recognized as a leading authority *on the nuclear fuel market


Its the equivalent of getting Gus Gould to coach your local under 15 footy side ...... That is worth getting excited about


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Capital raising of 15 million is bugger all.
> If they were looking for a few 100 million then you could get excited.
> A decient property development would be more than $15 mill!
> 
> Why all the excitement?




It isn't "bugger all" for a project like Lance with such a low Capex for start up. 

The benefits will soon become apparent to those ignorant of the Lance project metrics and ISR process. The DFS will display it all.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Country Lad said:


> I have seen over exposure with many spekkies, they announce too much and the market becomes blasÃ© and eventually the really good news has no effect.  PEN has made 15 non statutory announcements in 3 months, or one every 4 trading days and total of 32 or 1 every 2 trading days on average.
> 
> Too much noise maybe?
> 
> The initial response today was positive with the volume weighted buy:sell ratio being 1.8 to 1 and the price up 4.4%.  For the rest of the day the volume was only just over half of the first hour and the buy:sell ratio 0.7.
> 
> Reaction seems to be one of ho hum, another nannouncement.
> 
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad






tech/a said:


> Capital raising of 15 million is bugger all.
> If they were looking for a few 100 million then you could get excited.
> A decient property development would be more than $15 mill!
> 
> Why all the excitement?






barney said:


> You didn't actually read the announcement did you tech:  ..... Its not the $15 million dollars, although that will come in handy.
> 
> Just to refresh .....
> 
> Under the terms of the Share Placement, Peninsula will appoint Mr Jim Cornell to the Board *as Executive Director–Sales and Marketing*.
> 
> 
> Who is this Mr Cornell I hear you ask?
> 
> While he was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Nukem, the company grew into one of the *largest suppliers of nuclear fuel worldwide*.
> 
> Based on annual uranium deliveries, it continues to rank along with Cameco, AREVA, Rio Tinto Uranium, and BHP Billiton *in the top five uranium suppliers*. Mr. Cornell’s *principal responsibilities involved the management of Nukem’s uranium purchase and sale agreements*, as well as its inventory holdings.
> 
> While at Nukem, Mr. Cornell served as one of the principal negotiators of the historic U.S.-Russian HEU Agreement and negotiated long-term uranium marketing arrangements with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In addition, *he developed long-term teaming arrangements with major industry participants *including General Electric, Westinghouse, Cameco, AREVA and Babcock and Wilcox.
> 
> *Mr. Cornell is recognized as a leading authority *on the nuclear fuel market
> 
> 
> Its the equivalent of getting Gus Gould to coach your local under 15 footy side ...... That is worth getting excited about




I would agree with CL and Tech.

The conversations here are reminiscent of those during the tech bubble and the GFC when internet minnows and financial cripples like BNB were going belly up, and to the last day had loyal followers and tea leaf readers.

All information is contained in one metric, the price.

The price of PEN has collapsed losing adherents thousands of dollars.

It is a very sick stock having lost over 50% of it's value in just 4 months. 

If it were a horse you would think about taking it out of it's misery.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would agree with CL and Tech.
> 
> The conversations here are reminiscent of those during the tech bubble and the GFC when internet minnows and financial cripples like BNB were going belly up, and to the last day had loyal followers and tea leaf readers.
> 
> All information is contained in one metric, the price.
> 
> The price of PEN has collapsed losing adherents thousands of dollars.
> 
> It is a very sick stock having lost over 50% of it's value in just 4 months.
> 
> If it were a horse you would think about taking it out of it's misery.
> 
> gg





Hold that incredibly narrow minded and off the mark view gg....

I could add the ongoing bashing that PEN has taken on forums, here being no exception and sometimes worse. Is reminiscent of what EXT went through for a very long time, with the supporters, me included, copping all the same ignorant trader crap being posted here. 

Simply traders talk ignoring positive fundamentals. Comparing to the tech bubble and a failing company like BNB is simply way out there.

Of course all the short term (thinkers) traders here picked todays swing (a gain of 10.45% in minutes), to perfection as well I am sure.... NOT!

At that rate the "over 50% loss in 4months" should take a few hours to recoup. So far my 1.5m buy the other week is now looking outstanding, on top of the profit still sitting there...no losses, just profits and lots of it now.

Let's see how this pans out.

A little light reading for the naysayers here whilst you wait:

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Minister_calls_for_restart_of_Japans_reactors-2306114.html


Watch the tide turn...


----------



## hangseng

Sorry make that 14.93% up today with an outstanding CSPA at 7.7c


The last hour of trading was rather interesting to state the least.


So only 35.07% to go gg, then you can wipe that egg off your face


----------



## barney

Garpal Gumnut said:


> All information is contained in one metric, the price.
> 
> The price of PEN has collapsed losing adherents thousands of dollars.
> 
> It is a very sick stock having lost over 50% of it's value in just 4 months.
> 
> If it were a horse you would think about taking it out of it's misery.
> 
> gg





Interesting perceptions GG ..... 

Please correct me if I am incorrect, but have you not been a fan of Leighton Holdings in the past (LEI)


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

hangseng said:


> Sorry make that 14.93% up today with an outstanding CSPA at 7.7c
> 
> The last hour of trading was rather interesting to state the least.
> 
> So only 35.07% to go gg, then you can wipe that egg off your face



EW is still suggesting a short term target of 5c. So I'll be interested to see what happens next week... sorry HS. I'm happy for EW to be wrong though - for all those holders.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> Sorry make that 14.93% up today with an outstanding CSPA at 7.7c
> 
> 
> The last hour of trading was rather interesting to state the least.
> 
> 
> So only 35.07% to go gg, then you can wipe that egg off your face




On the price action today, one may as well talk about a small chicken putting on .2g in weight, in one day, and expecting a turkey for Christmas. 

There may be a recovery, but so far I see no evidence of that. Perhaps calling PEN a turkey is too cruel, considering I have called it a dog, horse and chook thus far.



barney said:


> Interesting perceptions GG .....
> 
> Please correct me if I am incorrect, but have you not been a fan of Leighton Holdings in the past (LEI)




In the past being correct. And I may be a fan of any stock on the ASX in an uptrend in the future, PEN in included, but so far it has not shown an uptrend, higher lows and higher highs.

I am not a bottom picker, as I prefer pleasant smelling fingers.

gg


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Double bottom
> Where I'd be buying and where I'd have a stop.
> Soaking up the Sun in Venice currently so will have to be a call for the record only.
> Sporting a mediterrainian tan I might add----RED.




17/6
As noted was a low risk buy.
So even us techies would have made a quid--- short term.
Personally I like the quick gains and avoid the massive drawdowns!

This is a high risk specie which can gleen profit fir the nimble


----------



## Sean K

tech/a said:


> 17/6
> As noted was a low risk buy.
> So even us techies would have made a quid--- short term.
> Personally I like the quick gains and avoid the massive drawdowns!
> 
> This is a high risk specie which can gleen profit fir the nimble



Tech, can't link to that quote. What are you saying? SK


----------



## Boggo

kennas said:


> Tech, can't link to that quote. What are you saying? SK




kennas, not sure but I think that tech/a was seeing the same thing that I was when we both made the comments on the 17th, both quoted below.



Boggo said:


> Ignoring all the reports that this mob regurgitates and all the endearing investment analysis posts, there could be a few bucks in this if/when it closes above 0.071.






tech/a said:


> Double bottom
> Where I'd be buying and where I'd have a stop.
> Soaking up the Sun in Venice currently so will have to be a call for the record only.
> Sporting a mediterrainian tan I might add----RED.


----------



## tech/a

#1510
On this thread Kennas.


----------



## barney

Garpal Gumnut said:


> In the past being correct. And I may be a fan of any stock on the ASX in an uptrend in the future, PEN in included, but so far it has not shown an uptrend, higher lows and higher highs.
> 
> *I am not a bottom picker*, as I prefer pleasant smelling fingers.
> 
> gg





NB. This post may contain traces of nuts, and should be taken with a grain of salt, and a side order of good humour:

You've dished a bit out to the PEN holders GG ...... Retribution day 


You made the following comment on the LEI thread on 11th April this year at *Point C* on the chart.


This is an exciting situation for *those of us who trade long and long-term*.

The chart shows 2 points of potential support/resistance

$16.30 and $25.

Interesting times.* Downtrends do present opportunities*.

A monthly chart going back 10-11 years.

gg 



At the time you made your call LEI had ....

From *Point A* it had already *dropped 56%*

From *Point B* it had already *dropped 31%*

*After your call *at Point C it has *dropped a further 27%*

I rest my case, and suggest that if you GG do not resist from your taunting the members of this thread, you will be summonsed to serve 30 days in the* PEN *!!


----------



## howmanyru

Just out of curiosity, would you guys call this a classic reversal? When the stock price overshoots the previous days low or high by a reasonable amount, then swings in the opposite direction on high volume. I have seen this pattern a lot and it often indicates a change in stock direction. Just wondering if I am correct here? Any info appreciated.


----------



## madjohn

well done PEN -best performance for the week and maybe more next week,fantastic results compare to the overall market movements!!market will be down monday but PEN will thrive -just watch -my crystal ball is glowing .


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

howmanyru said:


> Just out of curiosity, would you guys call this a classic reversal? When the stock price overshoots the previous days low or high by a reasonable amount, then swings in the opposite direction on high volume. I have seen this pattern a lot and it often indicates a change in stock direction. Just wondering if I am correct here? Any info appreciated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 43402




It could be, it would be useful to post volume, and to wait for a higher low and higher high before accepting a trend reversal, pivot points, including complex ones can occur in a change in trend. 

PEN Holders may rush to judgement in hope of a trend reversal or some further drip from Hanseng's tealeaves.



gg


----------



## hangseng

barney said:


> NB. This post may contain traces of nuts, and should be taken with a grain of salt, and a side order of good humour:
> 
> You've dished a bit out to the PEN holders GG ...... Retribution day
> 
> 
> You made the following comment on the LEI thread on 11th April this year at *Point C* on the chart.
> 
> 
> This is an exciting situation for *those of us who trade long and long-term*.
> 
> The chart shows 2 points of potential support/resistance
> 
> $16.30 and $25.
> 
> Interesting times.* Downtrends do present opportunities*.
> 
> A monthly chart going back 10-11 years.
> 
> gg
> 
> 
> 
> At the time you made your call LEI had ....
> 
> From *Point A* it had already *dropped 56%*
> 
> From *Point B* it had already *dropped 31%*
> 
> *After your call *at Point C it has *dropped a further 27%*
> 
> I rest my case, and suggest that if you GG do not resist from your taunting the members of this thread, you will be summonsed to serve 30 days in the* PEN *!!




Great post barney, seems the pot has been calling the kettle black!


----------



## skyQuake

Always good to keep track of popular sentiment here and across the pond for turning points



axelord said:


> I just got ride of the"dog" today..with a heavy loss .
> I will see if i can have an entry next FY at 6.1..I would go for 1.5 m too


----------



## Piggy Bank

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Hangseng mate,
> 
> I only picked PEN in the ASF Competition on your advice. This is embarrassing. I am down from .085 to .076, over 10.5% down and that after just 6 trading days, that is .0015 daily.
> 
> I am 40th in the competition out of 54.
> 
> Even nuntheweiser's loss of 6.25% on another dog, seems respectable compared to mine.
> 
> When is this haemorrhaging of Garpal Gumnut's reputation going to cease?
> 
> One good thing though, at least I don't own any.
> 
> gg






hangseng said:


> I don't give advice here or anywhere else gg. Seems you have made a personal choice, one of which I will gladly swap with you should it be permitted on the forum. Of any month to take PEN this would have been a logical choice and I was only beaten to the post by you to select it.
> 
> So anytime Joe gives permission for you to bail and swap with me I will be only too glad to "save" you lol.
> 
> My 2nd choice (SBL) isn't that crash hot either. However my main selections have been ravaged recently so no harm to my already "nuked" (dare i say) reputation one way or the other
> 
> If PEN actually comes out with the planned major milestone announcements (6 of them), then gg's reputation will have been restored...pending the market sentiment changing accordingly.
> 
> Otherwise you are doomed and consigned to the nuked dustbin of oblivion me old mate lol.
> 
> ps. Fear not, my money is on you going green in the tipping at the very least
> 
> Me...I am bleeding in the tipping and seemingly likely to stay that way this month unfortunately





Hey gg,

I see you have chosen PEN again for July's Stock Tipping Competition.

Not leaving it for HS to pick?  
Do you really believe it will be a winner next month or just taunting HS?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Piggy Bank said:


> Hey gg,
> 
> I see you have chosen PEN again for July's Stock Tipping Competition.
> 
> Not leaving it for HS to pick?
> Do you really believe it will be a winner next month or just taunting HS?






Garpal Gumnut said:


> It could be, it would be useful to post volume, and to wait for a higher low and higher high before accepting a trend reversal, pivot points, including complex ones can occur in a change in trend.
> 
> PEN Holders may rush to judgement in hope of a trend reversal or some further drip from Hanseng's tealeaves.
> 
> 
> 
> gg




Thanks PB, for the first time, in a long time, there is some hope technically for PEN. Time will tell. I would not spend my hardearned atm, but would not discount the stock either.

I unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, am not privy to the tittletattle that passes for investment research amongst the significance-affected denizens of the Penclub on other forums. I only hear it second hand from a mate of mine with bipolar.

God only knows what the directors and third party private equity partners think of the camp followers. I suppose it provides some light relief in the serious business of exploration.

It reminds me somewhat of what Atilla the Hun and his fellow huns would have thought of cleanshaven Roman youths seeking his autograph on entering Northern Italy.

As I said above, it is all in the price and volume. PEN is very volatile, and nobody least of all Hangseng has all the information on this stock. All the information though is contained in the price, most cogently at close of trade each day.

gg


----------



## Joe Blow

I would like to remind everyone posting in this thread to please refrain from provoking or attacking other thread participants. Remember, there is no need to refer to others personally. Please just respond to the content of their posts.


----------



## TheAbyss

hangseng said:


> Great post barney, seems the pot has been calling the kettle black!




Dont know about a great post. Looks a lot like playing the man not the ball to me which there is too much of here for sure. 

What are your thoughts on the SPP? Resource upgrade, SPP 6 days later?

$15m at VWAP

Share Placement
Under the terms of the Share Placement to NuCore, Peninsula will raise A$15,000,000
pursuant to a placement of ordinary shares calculated at the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) in the period following publication of the Company’s DFS results at the Lance Projects in Wyoming, USA.

Peninsula will issue one free attaching listed option exercisable at 3 cents on or before
31 December 2015 (PENOC) for every share subscribed by NuCore.


----------



## barney

TheAbyss said:


> Dont know about a great post. Looks a lot like playing the man not the ball to me which there is too much of here for sure.




Abyss,

If you could take some time and read this thread a little more closely you will notice who has been playing the man around here, and it certainly has not been me

I put my track record on this and any other thread on ASF as one who has always treated other members with total respect ........ but, I also I believe I've been around here long enough to adjudicate if I think another member is getting out of line.

The above post of mine you are referring to was initiated with a *humorous undertone *in an attempt to curtail some of the continuous *pointless negativety *on the thread.  In my view, *the post achieved its objective *

If you read the post in the context of the entire thread, I think you will find I made a fair point, and did it politely with enough humour not to offend.

If you can find anything in my post which is *untruthful*, please point it out and I will apologise. 

Cheers.


----------



## TheAbyss

barney said:


> Abyss,
> 
> If you could take some time and read this thread a little more closely you will notice who has been playing the man around here, and it certainly has not been me
> 
> I put my track record on this and any other thread on ASF as one who has always treated other members with total respect ........ but, I also I believe I've been around here long enough to adjudicate if I think another member is getting out of line.
> 
> The above post of mine you are referring to was initiated with a *humorous undertone *in an attempt to curtail some of the continuous *pointless negativety *on the thread.  In my view, *the post achieved its objective *
> 
> If you read the post in the context of the entire thread, I think you will find I made a fair point, and did it politely with enough humour not to offend.
> 
> If you can find anything in my post which is *untruthful*, please point it out and I will apologise.
> 
> Cheers.





Barney, i missed the humour as it appeared to have been applied to moderate an accusation so perhaps i have misinterpreted in this instance so please accept my apologies for the oversight.

I have been an avid follower of this thread as it clearly has two sides and that is what it takes to have a market plus the entertainment value is magnificent on the down days we have been experiencing.

What are your thoughts on the SPP on the table?

Cheers


----------



## barney

TheAbyss said:


> Barney, i missed the humour as it appeared to have been applied to moderate an accusation so perhaps i have misinterpreted in this instance so please accept my apologies for the oversight.
> 
> I have been an avid follower of this thread as it clearly has two sides and that is what it takes to have a market plus the entertainment value is magnificent on the down days we have been experiencing.
> 
> What are your thoughts on the SPP on the table?
> 
> Cheers




Ab,  The post was not meant to be an accusation ..... simply an observation .... ie. Made a point, but no offence intended 

As for the humour ..... I may need to get some better writers if I have to start translating my posts

I tried to keep the post non offensive with the prelude ....... 
NB. This post may contain traces of nuts, and should be taken with a grain of salt, and a side order of good humour:


Garpal appreciates a little Monty Python, so I thought the "John Cleese taunting reference" may have amused him ..

I rest my case, and suggest that if you GG do not resist from your *taunting* the members of this thread, you will be summonsed to serve 30 days in the* PEN *!!


I thought my reference to spending *30 days in the PEN * would be taken in the right spirit ........... as I said, perhaps I need to sack my writers


As for the share price of PEN ...... Churning healthily would be my description. The longer it consolidates above 6.7 cents the better.  I think it has held up reasonably well considering.  (personally holding PENOC's only atm)

Cheers.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The July competition is not yet 1 hour old and I am already 1.35% up on this little yapper.

All this kerfuffle is contagious.

Kurmon Da Pen.

gg


----------



## tigerboi

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The July competition is not yet 1 hour old and I am already 1.35% up on this little yapper.
> 
> All this kerfuffle is contagious.
> 
> Kurmon Da Pen.
> 
> gg




you beat me to PEN i wanted it for a larf...i bags it next month ...tb


----------



## barney

High grade results returned for Uranium and Molybdenum include:
DH 06F0866RC - 4.9 ft @ 4,022 ppm U3O8 and 1,313 ppm Mo from 205.1ft
DH 06F0866RC - 1.6 ft @ 6,170 ppm U3O8 and 6,160 ppm Mo from 229.7ft
DH 06F0864RC - 23.0 ft @ 1,849 ppm U3O8 and 1,081 ppm Mo from 280.5ft
DH 06F0158RC - 19.7 ft @ 804 ppm U3O8 and 465 ppm Mo from 62.3ft
DH 06F0479RC - 4.9 ft @ 1,251 ppm U3O8 and 2,548 ppm Mo from 157.5ft
DH 06F0432RC - 1.6 ft @ 2,594 ppm U3O8 and 490 ppm Mo from 36.1ft
●

Some handy numbers in those drilling/assay results ...... 

QUOTE:- "these latest results *confirm* that the high grades and positive
correlation between Uranium and Molybdenum mineralisation *extend across the entire
historical drilled area*."


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

barney said:


> High grade results returned for Uranium and Molybdenum include:
> DH 06F0866RC - 4.9 ft @ 4,022 ppm U3O8 and 1,313 ppm Mo from 205.1ft
> DH 06F0866RC - 1.6 ft @ 6,170 ppm U3O8 and 6,160 ppm Mo from 229.7ft
> DH 06F0864RC - 23.0 ft @ 1,849 ppm U3O8 and 1,081 ppm Mo from 280.5ft
> DH 06F0158RC - 19.7 ft @ 804 ppm U3O8 and 465 ppm Mo from 62.3ft
> DH 06F0479RC - 4.9 ft @ 1,251 ppm U3O8 and 2,548 ppm Mo from 157.5ft
> DH 06F0432RC - 1.6 ft @ 2,594 ppm U3O8 and 490 ppm Mo from 36.1ft
> ●
> 
> Some handy numbers in those drilling/assay results ......
> 
> QUOTE:- "these latest results *confirm* that the high grades and positive
> correlation between Uranium and Molybdenum mineralisation *extend across the entire
> historical drilled area*."




I'm a bit confused.

If the recent reports are so positive, why is the share price tanking?

Chartwise this puppy is a yelping.

Perhaps other players down the track will mine these assets. This company's SP is woeful and the uranium price is recovering.

gg


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> EW is still suggesting a short term target of 5c...



No change. 5c still the target. More (decline) to come.


----------



## Joe Blow

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> EW is still suggesting a short term target of 5c. So I'll be interested to see what happens next week... sorry HS. I'm happy for EW to be wrong though - for all those holders.






zzaaxxss3401 said:


> No change. 5c still the target. More (decline) to come.




Just a reminder that these kind of price targets really need to be supported by a chart that illustrates the EW analysis. If you could post one that would be appreciated.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

One of my gardeners tells me that there has been another earthquake close to the Fukishima reactor, on the northern island of Japan. I cannot find anything about it on ABC Justin.
ah here it is on the SMH.



> The US Geological Agency, which also estimated the magnitude at 7.1, said the offshore quake hit at a depth of 10 kilometres in the same general area as the 9.0-magnitude quake of March 11, which triggered a massive tsunami.
> Advertisement: Story continues below
> 
> Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said it had not received reports of any fresh problems at the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant after the latest earthquake.
> 
> "We are still checking details, but cooling of reactors is continuing," a TEPCO spokeswoman said.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/tsunami-advisory-on-japanese-coast-20110710-1h8im.html#ixzz1RgFlxcgH




So it shouldn't affect PEN.

gg


----------



## hangseng

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> No change. 5c still the target. More (decline) to come.





No chart, just baseless rhetoric as usual.

Perhaps the charting geniuses here can please explain how PEN will go to 5c, when even the biggest media fear driven frenzied selloff post Fukushima couldn't get it below 5.6 and even then it bounced hard, albeit falling back to 5.9 (higher low) before now going again today to 7.8.

The MACD cross on the 24/6 with the OBV on steadily rising volume (not trader spikes). With some of the best and most significant fundamental information about to come out.

5c??? 
I will place my neck firmly on the chopping block.... *You are wrong, very very wrong! and GG will win the tipping for July*

None of which will stop the crap posted here of late I am sure. Regardless my 6.1 buy on the 16/6 just looks better every day, and will look much better again in the next few months...IMO of course....


----------



## skyQuake

imo quite bullish today - had that quick test of 7.7 resist, bounced off as with all first tests. May have another go at it this week.. or even today!


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> imo quite bullish today - had that quick test of 7.7 resist, bounced off as with all first tests. May have another go at it this week.. or even today!




BMN getting a takeover from the Chinese + carbon monday have to be pretty good for uranium stocks...But not for me as my stop in PDN is tagged.

Also not sure about whether FIRB will like the idea of the Chinese buy Aussie uranium player...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> No chart, just baseless rhetoric as usual.
> 
> Perhaps the charting geniuses here can please explain how PEN will go to 5c, when even the biggest media fear driven frenzied selloff post Fukushima couldn't get it below 5.6 and even then it bounced hard, albeit falling back to 5.9 (higher low) before now going again today to 7.8.
> 
> The MACD cross on the 24/6 with the OBV on steadily rising volume (not trader spikes). With some of the best and most significant fundamental information about to come out.
> 
> 5c???
> I will place my neck firmly on the chopping block.... *You are wrong, very very wrong! and GG will win the tipping for July*
> 
> None of which will stop the crap posted here of late I am sure. Regardless my 6.1 buy on the 16/6 just looks better every day, and will look much better again in the next few months...IMO of course....




Thanks hangseng,

I actually bought a few hundred thousand PENOC today, PEN now has a nice bottoming pattern and I await developments. Should it jump it will do so with gusto. It may fall. 

Having bought in to PEN, please do not ask me to post with the tragics and nohopers on that other forum, what's it called, coldcrims.com. Should it not perform, off to the meatworks with it. This is all to do with greed, not love.

gg


----------



## SilverRanger

skc said:


> BMN getting a takeover from the Chinese + carbon monday have to be pretty good for uranium stocks...But not for me as my stop in PDN is tagged.
> 
> Also not sure about whether FIRB will like the idea of the Chinese buy Aussie uranium player...




Technically BMN is not an Aussie uranium miner so I don't think the FIRB will intervene just because it's listed on the ASX.

This should be a big plus to other small players (especially ones with offshore assets) like PEN and DYL

Disclosure: I jumped on the boat for BMN today and hope to get my 25% takeover premium.


----------



## albaby

gg sorry for the silly Q but what is penoc?I found them quoted on yahoo,but not on google fin.Asx search says there are no oppies on pen.Thanks.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

albaby said:


> gg sorry for the silly Q but what is penoc?I found them quoted on yahoo,but not on google fin.Asx search says there are no oppies on pen.Thanks.




albaby,

It's not a silly quesion. They are not options such as you would have over bhp, cba and other coy's in the "option market". In that market one writes or creates an option, or others do, and then those options are traded on the options market.  

PENOC and PENOA  are company issued options. They have a life, and are traded on the ASX as regular shares are. 

e.g PENOA shortly expires and then the folk who own that have the right to buy PEN shares for whatever it says on the PENOA documents. I don't know. A few cents. But soon.

PENOC is a longer dated option , some years, same deal though, in a few years.

The reason I bought PENOC was that I didn't want to have to put up any more money any time soon, like the poor PENOA indigents will be soon doing. If the share price falls they will be in a difficult situation soon. If it rises they will be laughing. I'm punting if it rises, PENOC will too.

PENOC were cheaper for some reason known only to hangseng and other PEN tragics, tea leaf readers, and godbothering loons. 

It's a punt. If I win, I win. If I lose it's not the end of the world. I'll just have a good drop from a cheap cask and a cigar, and examine my reasons for buying PENOC, so that if I win, I might be able to repeat the process, and if I lose, I won't do it again.

btw,  ASF is the place to ask questions, and ask them before you put your hardearned out. 

I read, believe it or not, more than I post on ASF and it is worth a barrow load of books by so called experts. Since I began reading ASF I am now much richer.

gg


----------



## Julia

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It's a punt. If I win, I win. If I lose it's not the end of the world. I'll just have a good drop from a cheap cask and a cigar,



Make the most of being able to access that cheap cask, gg.  The nanny state appears to be about to introduce a floor price on alcohol which will render the now cheap casks about three times more expensive.

The reason for this is the asinine suggestion that the aborigines specifically and other alcoholics will immediately desist from consuming this cask wine, their alcoholism magically having disappeared as a result of the price rise.

More likely they'll switch to other forms of alcohol which will, in quantity, be more harmful, or even seek solace in metho.

Meantime, many pensioners and others on low incomes, or for that matter just those who are happy to drink cask wine, will find it priced out of their budgets.

What elitist, illogical utter nonsense.

(apologies for diverting the thread)


----------



## hangseng

You and me both GG

I added another swag of PENOC to my kitty today after waiting at 4.1 for a week 

Agreed Julia....Australia is going backward at a great rate of knots. Over regulated nanny state mentality. Whatever happened to "taking responsibility for ones own actions"?

Hopefully the pathetic, she'll be right attitude of the Australian community wakes up before the minority interest groups (that control) do too much damage.

*Democracy = Majority Rules * _(Except in Australia, where vocal minority groups call the shots and the govt (of all persuasions) jumps in knee jerk, ill thought out manner.)_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Julia said:


> Make the most of being able to access that cheap cask, gg.  The nanny state appears to be about to introduce a floor price on alcohol which will render the now cheap casks about three times more expensive.
> 
> The reason for this is the asinine suggestion that the aborigines specifically and other alcoholics will immediately desist from consuming this cask wine, their alcoholism magically having disappeared as a result of the price rise.
> 
> More likely they'll switch to other forms of alcohol which will, in quantity, be more harmful, or even seek solace in metho.
> 
> Meantime, many pensioners and others on low incomes, or for that matter just those who are happy to drink cask wine, will find it priced out of their budgets.
> 
> What elitist, illogical utter nonsense.
> 
> (apologies for diverting the thread)






hangseng said:


> You and me both GG
> 
> I added another swag of PENOC to my kitty today after waiting at 4.1 for a week
> 
> Agreed Julia....Australia is going backward at a great rate of knots. Over regulated nanny state mentality. Whatever happened to "taking responsibility for ones own actions"?
> 
> Hopefully the pathetic, she'll be right attitude of the Australian community wakes up before the minority interest groups (that control) do too much damage.
> 
> *Democracy = Majority Rules * _(Except in Australia, where vocal minority groups call the shots and the govt (of all persuasions) jumps in knee jerk, ill thought out manner.)_




Can you two tragics go somewhere else to discuss the state of the world.

This is the PEN thread.

Kurmon da PEN.

What is a foot? for someone new to PEN. They find Uranium at so many feet, in so many feet, at such a weight per something. I only look at charts and wouldn't know a uranium if it fell on me.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> albaby,
> 
> PENOC and PENOA  are company issued options. They have a life, and are traded on the ASX as regular shares are.
> 
> e.g PENOA shortly expires and then the folk who own that have the right to buy PEN shares for whatever it says on the PENOA documents. I don't know. A few cents. But soon.
> 
> PENOC is a longer dated option , some years, same deal though, in a few years.
> 
> gg




You may read but taking it in seems to be a failing...


PENOA - *Exercisable at 3c by 30th June 2012 *(*soon??? *I don't think so)

PENOC - (cost 1c, I was called a fool for taking up the offer...twice lol, as other "fools" didn't think it was worthwhile) Exercisable at 3c by 30th June 2015


PENOC would make me rather well off to date (if I sold)...and will make me even more so.

Cheers,
Foolish, tealeaf reading, PEN investor


----------



## ob1kinobi

Joe Blow said:


> I would like to remind everyone posting in this thread to please refrain from provoking or attacking other thread participants. Remember, there is no need to refer to others personally. Please just respond to the content of their posts.




Hi Joe,

Unfortunately I don't see a lot of evidence of this.  Personal attacks are completely unnecessary IMO.

Maybe its time for a firmer hand?


----------



## Piggy Bank

hangseng said:


> You may read but taking it in seems to be a failing...
> 
> 
> PENOA - *Exercisable at 3c by 30th June 2012 *(*soon??? *I don't think so)
> 
> PENOC - (cost 1c, I was called a fool for taking up the offer...twice lol, as other "fools" didn't think it was worthwhile) Exercisable at 3c by 30th June 2015
> 
> 
> PENOC would make me rather well off to date (if I sold)...and will make me even more so.
> 
> Cheers,
> Foolish, tealeaf reading, PEN investor





Do you happen to also know how many PENOA and PENOC units were issued by the company?


----------



## joelymoley

Garpal Gumnut said:


> albaby,
> 
> It's not a silly quesion. They are not options such as you would have over bhp, cba and other coy's in the "option market". In that market one writes or creates an option, or others do, and then those options are traded on the options market.
> 
> PENOC and PENOA  are company issued options. They have a life, and are traded on the ASX as regular shares are.
> 
> e.g PENOA shortly expires and then the folk who own that have the right to buy PEN shares for whatever it says on the PENOA documents. I don't know. A few cents. But soon.
> 
> PENOC is a longer dated option , some years, same deal though, in a few years.
> 
> The reason I bought PENOC was that I didn't want to have to put up any more money any time soon, like the poor PENOA indigents will be soon doing. If the share price falls they will be in a difficult situation soon. If it rises they will be laughing. I'm punting if it rises, PENOC will too.
> 
> PENOC were cheaper for some reason known only to hangseng and other PEN tragics, tea leaf readers, and godbothering loons.
> 
> It's a punt. If I win, I win. If I lose it's not the end of the world. I'll just have a good drop from a cheap cask and a cigar, and examine my reasons for buying PENOC, so that if I win, I might be able to repeat the process, and if I lose, I won't do it again.
> 
> btw,  ASF is the place to ask questions, and ask them before you put your hardearned out.
> 
> I read, believe it or not, more than I post on ASF and it is worth a barrow load of books by so called experts. Since I began reading ASF I am now much richer.
> 
> gg





Sorry for another noob question but, I cant seem to find any info about these options (maybe im looking in the wrong place)

How do i exercise the options when i want to?
Where can i find out more info about how these options work (ie ex price and option premium)

Thanks in advance!


----------



## hangseng

Piggy Bank said:


> Do you happen to also know how many PENOA and PENOC units were issued by the company?




You will find all you require here...

http://www.pel.net.au/investor_info/capital_structure.phtml

and here...

http://www.pel.net.au/news___announcements/general_announcements.phtml


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> You may read but taking it in seems to be a failing...
> 
> 
> PENOA - *Exercisable at 3c by 30th June 2012 *(*soon??? *I don't think so)
> 
> PENOC - (cost 1c, I was called a fool for taking up the offer...twice lol, as other "fools" didn't think it was worthwhile) Exercisable at 3c by 30th June 2015
> 
> 
> PENOC would make me rather well off to date (if I sold)...and will make me even more so.
> 
> Cheers,
> Foolish, tealeaf reading, PEN investor




Sorry hs,

You are correct. I was concentrating on giving him advice viz a viz oppie oppies and company issued oppies, not going in to the entrails of oppie dates for PEN.

Now can you explain all this ppm and finding things at feet, and foots, about PEN's uranium. and why PEN is so much better. I did go to coldcrim.com but found the spelling so awful, and the venom so pervasive, that I fled with a headache.

I am a simple soul, and read simply, and am keen to download your lobes on PEN uranium.

gg


----------



## joelymoley

hangseng said:


> You will find all you require here...
> 
> http://www.pel.net.au/investor_info/capital_structure.phtml
> 
> and here...
> 
> http://www.pel.net.au/news___announcements/general_announcements.phtml





Thanks!!


----------



## albaby

gg you are a legend,thanks also to hs,the generosity of some on this forum knocks me out.[Security Group:	Company Options
First Listed:	06 Oct 2010
First Traded:	06 Oct 2010
Shares Issued:	465,508,997
Market Capitalisation:	19,551,378
Issuer:	PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED Exp Date	 31 Dec 2015]


----------



## barney

albaby said:


> gg you are a legend,thanks also to hs,the generosity of some on this forum knocks me out.[Security Group:	Company Options
> First Listed:	06 Oct 2010
> First Traded:	06 Oct 2010
> Shares Issued:	465,508,997
> Market Capitalisation:	19,551,378
> Issuer:	PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED Exp Date	 31 Dec 2015]






Howdy Al,
Just to clarify the company's options position:-

As at 11th July, 2011  ........

406,538,244 Options exercisable at 3 cents on or before 30 June 2012 *(PENOA)*
465,451,409 Options exercisable at 3 cents on or before 31 December 2015 *(PENOC)*

Plus 28,000,000  unlisted options which are exercisable at various prices from 4 cents to 12.5 cents, on varying dates between now and December 2015

Cheers.


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry hs,
> 
> You are correct. I was concentrating on giving him advice viz a viz oppie oppies and company issued oppies, not going in to the entrails of oppie dates for PEN.
> 
> Now can you explain all this ppm and finding things at feet, and foots, about PEN's uranium. and why PEN is so much better. I did go to coldcrim.com but found the spelling so awful, and the venom so pervasive, that I fled with a headache.
> 
> I am a simple soul, and read simply, and am keen to download your lobes on PEN uranium.
> 
> gg




Just to get you started a bit of light reading, representing probably about 1% of what I have read in the last 4 years. Some great free websites I once referenced and posted links fo here and elsewhere are now "member only" mainly for the Wyoming Mining Association (WMA). But this is a start...

Enjoy


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> Just to get you started a bit of light reading, representing probably about 1% of what I have read in the last 4 years. Some great free websites I once referenced and posted links fo here and elsewhere are now "member only" mainly for the Wyoming Mining Association (WMA). But this is a start...
> 
> Enjoy




Thanks hangseng, I had a quick squizz at one, so I'll buy some mylanter, before heading in to them on the weekend, a lot to digest for a slow reader.

You are a valuable guy to have about.



gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks hangseng, I had a quick squizz at one, so I'll buy some mylanter, before heading in to them on the weekend, a lot to digest for a slow reader.
> 
> You are a valuable guy to have about.
> 
> 
> 
> gg






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks hangseng, I had a quick squizz at one, so I'll buy some mylanter, before heading in to them on the weekend, a lot to digest for a slow reader.
> 
> You are a valuable guy to have about.
> 
> 
> 
> gg





Make no mistake, 

I am a (calculated) risk taker, high risk tolerance, know intimately the industries I invest in and where I don't totally understand I have access to some very clever people who do....but most of all a tea leaf reader and far right contrarian 

With PEN I will either end up a multi millionairre or as I were...
"I STARTED OUT WITH NOTHIN' AND STILL HAVE MOST OF IT LEFT"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=113FzU6Uf9U

My pleasure more when you get through that lot and I will try to simplify where I can.


----------



## tech/a

Mate thought of you and for a minute thought youd come over to the dark side and seen the light!


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Mate thought of you and for a minute thought youd come over to the dark side and seen the light!
> 
> View attachment 43688




You would be mistaken...It would take far more than what has been posted here or elsewhere to get me to sell.

Just a little note...

It would seem PEN has been the subject of shortselling activity on very low overall volume. The shareholder (owner) of the shares is PALA, however PALA has not relinquished real "ownership" of any shares. UBS has under share lending agreement.

Come on tech, you are a smart fellow...What happens when the short selling is done with? i.e. How does the short seller make money?

They sell the shares and then when their target is reached they cover. Inevitably that will occur, just a matter of when and by how much.

Just one big yawn in the journey for me.

I await the "end game" for the $$$,$$$, not the petty pennies in the midde...


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> You would be mistaken...It would take far more than what has been posted here or elsewhere to get me to sell.
> 
> Just a little note...
> 
> It would seem PEN has been the subject of shortselling activity on very low overall volume. The shareholder (owner) of the shares is PALA, however PALA has not relinquished real "ownership" of any shares. UBS has under share lending agreement.
> 
> Come on tech, you are a smart fellow...What happens when the short selling is done with? i.e. How does the short seller make money?
> 
> They sell the shares and then when their target is reached they cover. Inevitably that will occur, just a matter of when and by how much.
> 
> Just one big yawn in the journey for me.
> 
> I await the "end game" for the $$$,$$$, not the petty pennies in the midde...





Alternately, they could be shorting stock and buying OAs and OCs, which got really smashed last week. Nice little arb there


----------



## Boggo

skyQuake said:


> Alternately, they could be shorting stock and buying OAs and OCs, which got really smashed last week. Nice little arb there




Not sure what you mean, they are company options with a 3 cent exercise price so they will always be the stock price minus 3 cents (+/-  0.1 of a cent).
When the stock goes down or up they go with it.

Elaborate on the 'arb' bit or have I missed something ?


----------



## barney

Boggo said:


> Not sure what you mean, they are company options with a 3 cent exercise price so they will always be the stock price minus 3 cents (+/-  0.1 of a cent).
> When the stock goes down or up they go with it.
> 
> Elaborate on the 'arb' bit or have I missed something ?




The value of the Shares at a 3 cent diferentiation from the Options, is fully factored in.  In the past, particularly when the share was firing, it was not uncommon to see the differentiation down to around 2 cents or even lower  ...... 

..... shorting the stock/buying the options while the "values" are effectively neutral theoretically creates greater value when the stock recovers and the level of differentiation reduces.  

I notice USB nominees also liquidated holdings from AEE today as well.  The U sector is not well loved at the moment.


----------



## skyQuake

barney said:


> The value of the Shares at a 3 cent diferentiation from the Options, is fully factored in.  In the past, particularly when the share was firing, it was not uncommon to see the differentiation down to around 2 cents or even lower  ......
> 
> ..... shorting the stock/buying the options while the "values" are effectively neutral theoretically creates greater value when the stock recovers and the level of differentiation reduces.
> 
> I notice USB nominees also liquidated holdings from AEE today as well.  The U sector is not well loved at the moment.




Yep, esp early july when Harltleys sold something like 40million OCs, it was trading at a 0.3c discount to Intrinsic.

The U sector seems full of fast money atm, there was a little pop when BMN got bid for, but PDN didn't even react and everything else is just getting dragged down along with the rest of the mkt.


----------



## Billyb

Huge volume today, mostly buying as the price shot significantly today from 7.4 to 8.3 cents. Interesting. Not sure what will happen tomorrow but my guess is that the price will go up again.


----------



## tech/a

Nothing has changed from post 1544 for me.

By the way H/S I don't disagree with your
" Make a million or not" stand point.
There are millionaires made everyday from people who stick rigidly to their convictions
Sadly there are far more who fail.

I really do hope you make your million/s
Such conviction is rare to observe and rarer to follow through.

In the meantime I agree this is set for a run.


----------



## Donga

Billyb said:


> Huge volume today, mostly buying as the price shot significantly today from 7.4 to 8.3 cents. Interesting. Not sure what will happen tomorrow but my guess is that the price will go up again.




Much speculation as to timing of the DFS and hopefully action today is a strong indicator that tomorrow may be the day. Not overly fussed though be good to get some clean air. 

Back to ASF to track HS comments while he is suspended from another forum where Upmarket (aka Donga) is an avid follower on the PEN thread as are many others.

Exciting times again for PEN after all the nonsense from Fukushima


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Billyb said:


> Huge volume today, mostly buying as the price shot significantly today from 7.4 to 8.3 cents. Interesting. Not sure what will happen tomorrow but my guess is that the price will go up again.




This is a reasonable assumption.

A rising price on large volume finishing at the high, or close to, indicates strength to the long side.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Safe to assume the DFS is upon us shortly. I would also assume traders have taken positions accordingly.

I dare say the "decision to mine" will be also announced along with the DFS. Fundamentally this announcement I believe will be very positive and second only in importance to permitting.

All that remains to be seen is if the gains from the announcement hold or not and how much the sp is re-rated.

Just one more addition to this long journey. Yes tech, this will potentially be A life chnger for me and 4 others I am aware of, one with much larger holdings than me. We have all ridden out the storms and continued to slowly accumulate on each negative event, all unrelated to PEN's activities.

The "end game" is nearing but not over by any means.

Tecnichally, this is probably the easiest TA call to date. High volume, rising sp and breaking a key resistance point. Now sitting on the next resistance ready to break through. If 8.7 breaks and holds then I expect another visit to the teens.

This will be a wild ride no matter what happens, of that I am certain.

Good luck to you all no matter your trading persuasion. Will gg win the July comp?

Cheers
HS


----------



## tech/a

> Tecnichally, this is probably the easiest TA call to date. High volume, rising sp and breaking a key resistance point. Now sitting on the next resistance ready to break through. If 8.7 breaks and holds then I expect another visit to the teens.




Your taking a purely biased view-expecting a strong rise today on the back of overnight US strength.
There is nothing technically that indicates this will continue much further.
Many mis read volume as strength when in actual fact it can be supply.
Only the next few days can give you a definative answer.
Price is CURRENTLY at resistance zone of .08-.085.

There is nothing easy in analysing a stock technically when in correction.
Low volume on a pullback (Shallow) would be a good thing.
High volume on a pullback --bad.
High volume and going no where--bad.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> Your taking a purely biased view-expecting a strong rise today on the back of overnight US strength.
> There is nothing technically that indicates this will continue much further.
> Many mis read volume as strength when in actual fact it can be supply.
> Only the next few days can give you a definative answer.
> Price is CURRENTLY at resistance zone of .08-.085.
> 
> There is nothing easy in analysing a stock technically when in correction.
> Low volume on a pullback (Shallow) would be a good thing.
> High volume on a pullback --bad.
> High volume and going no where--bad.




Thanks for the advice tech.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Over analysing is as bad as under analysing. As Long as PEN holds at or above yesterdays close today then technically I see that as a positive. However I will concede that today there seems to be plenty of supply, more than I would have thought.

That said, I hold firm that _"*If* 8.7 breaks and holds then I expect another visit to the teens. "_

*If* PEN did visit the teens again as above, then I expect some massive resistance at around 10.5.

IMO *this won't happen immediately post DFS *as some may be expecting. I may be over thinking on this but IMO the sp will be held back by certain parties during the 10 day post DFS announcement period to assess the Nucore buy price. 

But that is just the sceptic in me... maybe you are wearing me down tech


----------



## tech/a

If you have bought (Or bought more) at 6.5-7.3c as indicated in the technical signal at post#1544 then who cares just sit and forget.

Will be a while before new highs---if ever.


----------



## hangseng

Yes I am very comfortable with the buying I did at 6.1 in June and my recent PENOC buy at 4.1 is looking rather healthy now as well. It lifted my PEN and PENOC averages a bit more but thats fine, the profit is all I care about and there is plenty of that atm.

As for new highs. I agree it will be a difficult path now with all the past negative sentiment and media driven fear. However the "herd" changes sentiment and seems to have a penchant for chasing momentum, they never let me down.

This industry isn't going away in a hurry and was supply/demand metrics tip in the favour of U stocks watch the herd come in droves. As usual I patiently await to sell to them when my time comes.

Amongst the bulldust posted on forums, hyped up media driven fear frenzy over Fukushima causing mad panic selling like it was the end of the world. John Borshoff said it best in two ABC statements:  

*"Fortunately, or unfortunately for the anti-nukes, no deaths have occurred. The media jackals have moved on. Fukushima is relegated to the normal news, or as much as is possible for nuclear to be, hidden in the mid-sections of newspapers."* 

This was his classic in the same interview and oh so true....

_*SUE LANNIN*: "The thing is, you're dealing with very pollutive, highly radioactive material, so there is a difference between the nuclear industry and the airline industry."

*JOHN BORSHOFF*: "You just don't understand radioactivity. You've been trained on the Simpsons. There are still classes of radioactivity that people can live with." _

I think the market in general and forums are full of posters _"trained on the Simpsons" when it comes to U stiocks _and they ran a mile, shorters helping it along. Some were smart to do so short term if that was their trading style, other took advantage as I did and held ground regardless.

One stand out comment that came out of the Argonaut Resources presentation at yesterdays Uranium conference in Perth...Loud and clear:

*"Demand is Coming...Supply is Not"*


----------



## skyQuake

3 Factors as I see it helping PEN.

1. The massive oppies hangover is gone. Hartleys seems to have done selling OAs and OCs, and thus the arbs won't be dumping stock against buying oppies anymore.

2. KEPCO announced yesterday that it would purchase an uranium asset this year. Pop goes Paladin, BMN, TOE, SLX, etc. Sector wide rally. 

3. PEN had the advantage of being in a consolidation under 7.7 for a while, so a lot of technical hot money chased the breakout.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> You would be mistaken...It would take far more than what has been posted here or elsewhere to get me to sell.






hangseng said:


> Safe to assume the DFS is upon us shortly. I would also assume traders have taken positions accordingly.
> Good luck to you all no matter your trading persuasion. Will gg win the July comp?
> 
> Cheers
> HS




Thanks HS.

As of today I am 19th in the competition. I do hope you are correct. I despair at times of winning the comp.

btw, will you ever sell your shares in PEN, and under what conditions, or will you be laid to rest as King Arthur of old, with PEN scrip upon your chest, no matter how it trades.

gg


----------



## MAGADAN

Nice piece of research by Vintage........The week after next could be interesting.

"On 1st July, Strata submitted its response to the Land Quality Branch (of the WDEQ) technical review of its permit application.

I just checked the WDEQ's assessment rules again - and it has 30 days to respond to Strata's additional information.

So by NEXT FRIDAY, it has to do one of three things - deem the application suitable for publication, deem the application still deficient and request more info from Strata or deny the application.

Based on Strata's excellent track record (in 'reading' agency requirements), and the detailed response they provided, I would think option one (publication) is a high probability.

Publication involves the one month public comment period (as with the DDW Permit - which attracted no comments). Strata has to place an ad in local papers once a week for 4 consecutive weeks - providing details of the project and the deadline date for filing objections to the project.

Assuming the WDEQ deems the application suitable for publication, then the public comment period would extend to around September 1st.

If there are no objections, the Permit to Mine would automatically be executed (as happened with the DDW Permit).

So next Friday a critical milestone for the permitting process - which we should hear about the following week."


----------



## madjohn

As for new highs. I agree it will be a difficult path now with all the past negative sentiment and media driven fear. However the "herd" changes sentiment and seems to have a penchant for chasing momentum, they never let me down.

This industry isn't going away in a hurry and was supply/demand metrics tip in the favour of U stocks watch the herd come in droves. As usual I patiently await to sell to them when my time comes.

So HS when do you think PEN can break new high??Looks like it is better to put money elsewhere if that`s the case??


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Tecnichally, this is probably the easiest TA call to date. High volume, rising sp and breaking a key resistance point. Now sitting on the next resistance ready to break through. If 8.7 breaks and holds then I expect another visit to the teens.
> HS




Agreed, an easy call. PEN is bouncing between the lower bollinger band and the bollinger MA resistance.
Last week saw below average volume.
Sell the news will see 6c revisited  IMO


----------



## Donga

Chalea said:


> Agreed, an easy call. PEN is bouncing between the lower bollinger band and the bollinger MA resistance.
> Last week saw below average volume.
> Sell the news will see 6c revisited  IMO




Very much doubt we'll see 6c again with the announcements due after DFS, though been wrong before...


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> btw, will you ever sell your shares in PEN, and under what conditions, or will you be laid to rest as King Arthur of old, with PEN scrip upon your chest, no matter how it trades.gg




Be sure of it gg, when my time comes I will sell without a second thought. As I will if any fundamental aspect falters. Despite what so many erroneously think and so often post, I am definitely not "in love" with this or any other stock.

What I won't be doing like so many others have, is to sell then com on bagging the stock. I will simply Move on and if all goes to plan go fishing on a very long caravan retirement. Be sure of it


----------



## Chalea

Donga said:


> Very much doubt we'll see 6c again with the announcements due after DFS, though been wrong before...




PEN needs U to recover. That won't happen until the Fukushima led crash has bottomed and consolidated.

Many months to years away...

Anyone who bought PEN above 10c will be desperate to sell if the SP manages to hit the top bollinger band @11c.

*Uranium is toxic. So is the whole Uranium sector...*

"Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH."

And

""I think the fact that there hasn't been a major reactor accident in the United States for over three decades allows the industry and the NRC to become complacent," Lochbaum said.

Are they just gambling, taking one huge risk with people's lives with these reactors, particularly Watts Bar?

Lochbaum replied, "In some respects, it's the biggest poker game in the country. You're playing high-stakes poker with American lives.""


----------



## tech/a

Chalea said:


> Agreed, an easy call. PEN is bouncing between the lower bollinger band and the bollinger MA resistance.
> Last week saw below average volume.
> Sell the news will see 6c revisited  IMO




To suggest that price respects a displaced M/A is pure lunacy.
Every stock on the planet respects Bollinger or any other band they are designed around past price action nothing more.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> To suggest that price respects a displaced M/A is pure lunacy.




Whatever. The 200 SMA was another major MA acting as resistance that was respected last week...

Crossovers mark important shifts in momentum and support/resistance regardless of holding period. Many traders can therefore just stick with the major averages and find out most of what they need to know. The most popular settings draw charts with a 20-day for the short-term trend, a 50-day for the intermediate trend and a 200-day for the big picture.

Long-term crossovers carry more weight than short-term events. The Golden Cross represents a major shift from the bears to the bulls. It triggers when the 50-day average breaks above the 200-day average. Conversely, the Death Cross restores bear power when the 50-day falls back beneath the 200-day. The 200-day average becomes major resistance after the 50-day average drops below it, and major support after breaking above it. When price gets trapped between the 50-day and 200-day averages, it can whipsaw repeatedly between their price extremes. This pinball action marks a zone of opportunity for swing trades.


----------



## alexc2005

Thanks for that!

Very interesting.


----------



## tech/a

Chalea 

Anyone can cut and paste and regurgitate blindy accepted rhetoric.

Few challenge or at best delve into the structure and application of whats being presented.
The novice looks at charts in retrospect and expect that to be true going forward.
If you were a successful technical trader applying analysis and understanding what it is that you actually need to know ---- you and I wouldn't be having this conversation--- albeit limited to "Whatever"


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Chalea
> 
> Anyone can cut and paste and regurgitate blindy accepted rhetoric.
> 
> Few challenge or at best delve into the structure and application of whats being presented.
> The novice looks at charts in retrospect and expect that to be true going forward.
> If you were a successful technical trader applying analysis and understanding what it is that you actually need to know ---- you and I wouldn't be having this conversation--- albeit limited to "Whatever"



I see no conversation here.
Facts/charts/opinions are being presented. Dismissive name calling is all you offer.


----------



## hangseng

This is the best interaction I have seen for some time.

Chalea you are really pulling out all stops once again. The same rubbish you posted when you were constantly telling the world PEN was going to 2c when it was steadily rising and never stopped until a 1:1000 year event occurred that had absolutely nothing to do with PEN.

You displayed how useless your TA was then and your constant cut and paste TA has once again been picked by astute TA posters.

You were way out of your league on HC and suspended for your blatant attempt to post false negatives. Now you are up against (argueably) some of the best forum TA posters. I may not always agree with tech/a, however if I was to follow TA only I would note his indepth technical information. Before I actually understood TA, I took note of your analysis. Before I realised you simply posted cut and paste analysis and you were mostly wrong.


You are way out of your depth in this forum and I will enjoy watching you get cut to shreds once again by far more astute analysts.

Your inept attempt at fundamental "analysis" here is so wrong as to be comical. You should join the same toilet media that reported on the Japan "TSUNAMI". They were wrong, as you are now.

Welcome back! 

To think I actually went in to bat for you once when others bagged you. How wrong I was!


----------



## Purd2

Chalea, you have IMO there. Why would anyone who has followed your posts (particularly elsewhere) be interested in your opinion when you made such a fool of yourself in the past. 
I'll respect Hangseng's opinion but not yours sorry.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> ...suspended for your blatant attempt to post false negatives. Now you are up against (argueably) some of the best forum TA posters.




No I wasn't.

Where are the opposing bullish charts?

Had you noticed the similarities in the chart to the 2007 crash?

How about the bearish rising wedge?


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> No I wasn't.
> 
> Where are the opposing bullish charts?
> 
> Had you noticed the similarities in the chart to the 2007 crash?
> 
> How about the bearish rising wedge?




To call that a rising wedge seems a bit stretched.

Looks like a breakout on the daily. Certainly not like a wedge



And the weekly too. Not enough bars to draw a wedge. Could be a channel. Who knows. 



Difference with 07 is PEN has recently made a beautiful double bottom, with a strong rejection of the lows. 

All the MACD shows is that its a terrible indicator to use with PEN.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> ...You displayed how useless your TA was then and your constant cut and paste TA has once again been picked by astute TA posters.
> 
> ...Now you are up against (argueably) some of the best forum TA posters.
> 
> ...You are way out of your depth in this forum and I will enjoy watching you get cut to shreds once again by far more astute analysts.
> 
> Welcome back!





Thanks. Thought I'd cut and paste this...


----------



## mickqld

Oh here we go AGAIN. Chalea's found another place to post the doomsday charts that will once again be found to be complete and utter nonsense. What price are we headed for this time, minus 4.2 cents sounds good.


----------



## Chalea

mickqld said:


> What price are we headed for this time....




If you recall my inaugural post on ASF, 6c was mentioned.

Subsequent analysis leads me to believe that if that support were to fail then a measured move would see a target @ around 3.5c


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Chalea said:


> If you recall my inaugural post on ASF, 6c was mentioned.
> 
> Subsequent analysis leads me to believe that if that support were to fail then a measured move would see a target @ around 3.5c




Just looking at the chart I can see support or resistance at 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.04, 0.05, 0.06, 0.07 and 0.08.

Please be more specific.

gg


----------



## tech/a

Chalea said:


> If you recall my inaugural post on ASF, 6c was mentioned.
> 
> Subsequent analysis leads me to believe that if that support were to fail then a measured move would see a target @ around 3.5c




Measured relative to what?

Mind you 3.5 is certainly possible--- even lower


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> Measured relative to what?
> 
> Mind you 3.5 is certainly possible--- even lower




Agree.

It is possible.

gg


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Measured relative to what?
> 
> Mind you 3.5 is certainly possible--- even lower




Measured relative to what?

Relative to the distance between current support & resistance

Target if 6.0 support fails = 

6.0 - (8.5 - 6.0) = 3.5c (approximately)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Chalea said:


> Measured relative to what?
> 
> Relative to the distance between current support & resistance
> 
> Target if 6.0 support fails =
> 
> 6.0 - (8.5 - 6.0) = 3.5c (approximately)




I fail to see support nor resistance in your illustration, nor volume for that matter.

gg


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> Measured relative to what?
> 
> Relative to the distance between current support & resistance
> 
> Target if 6.0 support fails =
> 
> 6.0 - (8.5 - 6.0) = 3.5c (approximately)




imo it doesnt work like that for small caps.

I think you'll find more accurate targets with a log based y axis.


----------



## tech/a

I see.

So we take any support and resistance and deduct or add the distance between the two to determine the next move.

WOW
Mind boggling.


----------



## Chalea

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I fail to see support nor resistance in your illustration, nor volume for that matter.
> 
> gg




Volume was said to be high on the "breakout" last week, but if you refer to my inaugural chart you will see it was below average for the week.

Look for a spike in volume if 6.0 fails or, to be balanced, 8.5c


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> I see.
> 
> So we take any support and resistance and deduct or add the distance between the two to determine the next move.
> 
> WOW
> Mind boggling.




KISS

Not just "any support and resistance", current support and resistance.


----------



## Donga

Chalea said:


> KISS
> 
> Not just "any support and resistance", current support and resistance.




So funny - TA in a low cap miner in a supercharged environment with all sorts of uncertainities and potential in the next 3 to 6 months. Then reading charts of past levels and volumes with such reverence. 

Makes me feel good inside to be a fundamentalist, except on Sundays


----------



## phishpheet

Whats happen to the DFS!!!!

1) missed the May releast date
2) Had Malcolm James (Non Exec. Director) telling shareholders it would be releast in the first weeks in June.
3)HQ replyed to shareholders that it would be releast in first weeks in July.
4)Peninsula now expects the study to be completed and
results published shortly. "(Announed 17 June)"
5)Gus said it would be releast "imminent"
6)Then Gus said "soon" 10 to 15 days
7)Now waiting to have it signed off.(over a week now)

Now some are entertaining that it may be releast with the "permit to mine", If that so why all the bull chit above, its not like the permit to mine date had never changed.

There is big problems with the DFS or... Lie's this company can't be trusted.


----------



## Chalea

Donga said:


> So funny - TA in a low cap miner in a supercharged environment with all sorts of uncertainities and potential in the next 3 to 6 months. Then reading charts of past levels and volumes with such reverence.
> 
> Makes me feel good inside to be a fundamentalist, except on Sundays




PEN is hardly low cap when you consider it's three point two thousand million fully diluted shares...Nor is it a miner.

Regarding potential, I urge you to read THIS

Here is an extract -

"Attempting to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions through nuclear energy, thereby fueling the dangers of the ultimate global incendiary - nuclear war - could be the most tragic of all miscalculations."

Hartleys' 15.4c price target must make all FA investors feel good inside...


----------



## hangseng

All I know now is that PEN is, very soon, about to announce argueably the most important anouncement apart from the Permit to Mine.

Charts or no charts, the DFS and decision to mine will come out. it is now 12 days since I was told PEN was planing to have the DFS out within 10 -15 days.

This may. or may not put a rocket up the sp. However I truly expect the announcement to be very positive and maybe even include something unexpected. Pure speculation on my part but the final permit review by the WDEQ may just provide some interesting reading.

Plenty of speculation about manipulation at the moment, however we can only speculate as to what is going on in the face of this most important announcement.

_"A $15,000,000 share placement to USA based NuCore Energy at a Premium to
VWAP.  The 10 day VWAP pricing period commences after the release of the Lance Project DFS.

The Placement is priced at a 50% premium to the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) in the period immediately following publication of the Company’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)

source: PEN announcement"_

*At the current price Nucore will pay 11.5c per PEN share*....what will the final price actually be?


In the meantime the charts provide some light entertainment....as you were...


----------



## Joe Blow

Just a reminder that I will continue to remove:


No/Low content posts
Off topic posts
Posts intended solely to provoke others
Posts that contain price targets will no substantiation/reasoning/analysis provided
Posts that contain personal attacks

Either post some relevant information, analysis or question or please refrain from posting in this thread.


----------



## Chalea

Joe Blow said:


> Just a reminder that I will continue to remove:
> 
> 
> No/Low content posts
> Off topic posts
> Posts intended solely to provoke others
> Posts that contain price targets will no substantiation/reasoning/analysis provided
> Posts that contain personal attacks
> 
> Either post some relevant information, analysis or question or please refrain from posting in this thread.




Sorry Joe, it's just that this DFS was apparently promised in May and this "very soon" excuse is causing concern among many.

I have provided reasoning for the SP target that was deleted yet it is described as "light entertainment" with impunity.

Kudos to you and your site but the personal attacks posted don't engender harmony.

Regards


----------



## hangseng

hangseng said:


> In terms of loss of life it seems coal already is by far Mick.
> 
> *Fossil fuels are far deadlier than nuclear power *
> 
> _*"There is no question," says Joseph Romm, an energy expert at the Center for American Progress in Washington DC. "Nothing is worse than fossil fuels for killing people."*_
> 
> http://www.newscientist.com/article...uels-are-far-deadlier-than-nuclear-power.html
> 
> and this....
> 
> http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And yet we have a massive over reaction to a nuclear plant incident that wasn't responsible for all the earthquake/tsunami related deaths in Japan...
> 
> Put in a Google search "china coal mine explosion" and see how many people have been killed in China alone from Coal mine incidents. Do they stop buying coal and building coal plants and the bottom drop ouit of shares???? No, and we don't see media reporting coal related fataities,  like has just occurred at Fukishima go figure.
> 
> We see headlines like this daily:
> 
> 
> http://oneplusonedirect.com/power-i...ima-nuclear-unit-as-death-count-rises/852804/
> 
> It is good news about the power plant restoration but lets throw in a rise in fatalities (totally unrelated to the power plant) in the same sentence as it will be a far more spectacular headline. Tripe reportintg IMO.
> 
> *Scaremongering abounds and continues, however reality will eventually hit home and nuclear energy will rebound.*





*Risk expert: Why radiation fears are often exaggerated *

_



			Fear of radiation from Japan's stricken nuclear power plant must not blind us to the risks attached to the alternatives, says David Spiegelhalter

What is it about nuclear energy that makes people particularly fearful?
There has been a lot of research on this. Nuclear radiation ticks all the boxes for increasing the fear factor. It is invisible, an unknowable quantity. People don't feel in control of it, and they don't understand it. They feel it is imposed upon them and that it is unnatural. It has the dread quality of causing cancer and birth defects.

Nuclear power has been staggeringly safe, but that doesn't stop people being anxious about it, just as airplanes and trains are an amazingly safe way to travel but people still worry far more about plane crashes than car crashes.
source: http://www.newscientist.com/article...hy-radiation-fears-are-often-exaggerated.html

Click to expand...


_



And Malcolm Fraser (and the ABC for that matter) is an expert in what in regards the field of Nuclear Energy?

The ABC is on record as posturing over nuclear power and John Borshoff was one of the best in response to the drivel that the ABC reporters are coming out with. They were _*"raised on the Simpsons".*_


----------



## hangseng

So on the release of such a key announcement the sp will half?

TA is fine, however it flies in the face of reality suggesting such a thing is about to occur.

You suggested the same that PEN was going to 2.5c in 2010 when clearly the opposite was going to occur and in fact did going on to 15.5c...not your 2.5c call.

Post Fukushima PEN hit 5.6c on nothing more than panic selling and blind fear. Driven aong by shorting. On the 16/6/2011 a second test of support occurred at 5.9c. So even post Fukushima lows couldn't be reached. And yet we are to take seriously PEN is going to 3.5c on highly subjective and as some here knowledgeable and respected in TA have suggested, erroneous TA.

Ignoring fundamentals will prove a costly mistake for many IMO if they rely only subjective chart analysis.

Your feeble attempt at scaremongering (again from ABC reports) has been tried by many here and elsewhere. It can and will be countered by far more intelligible information by experts in their field of expertise.

Your generalisation on being a concern by many is your personal view. I am a very large shareholder and have no such concerns, as don't the many I chat to offline, one a top 20 holder.

Stick to facts and this can be a great forum for sharing and not deterorate into what another forum has become, a total farce. Your purposeful, negative agenda targetting PEN and PEN only was obvious from your first post here. 

Keep it civil and I assure you I will as well. Post as you did on HC and started to do here already I for one will counter all you put up. Just keep it real.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> So on the release of such a key announcement the sp will half?
> 
> TA is fine, however it flies in the face of reality suggesting such a thing is about to occur.
> 
> You suggested the same that PEN was going to 2.5c in 2010 when clearly the opposite was going to occur and in fact did going on to 15.5c...not your 2.5c call.
> 
> Post Fukushima PEN hit 5.6c on nothing more than panic selling and blind fear. Driven aong by shorting. On the 16/6/2011 a second test of support occurred at 5.9c. So even post Fukushima lows couldn't be reached. And yet we are to take seriously PEN is going to 3.5c on highly subjective and as some here knowledgeable and respected in TA have suggested, erroneous TA.
> 
> Ignoring fundamentals will prove a costly mistake for many IMO if they rely only subjective chart analysis.
> 
> Your feeble attempt at scaremongering (again from ABC reports) has been tried by many here and elsewhere. It can and will be countered by far more intelligible information by experts in their field of expertise.
> 
> Your generalisation on being a concern by many is your personal view. I am a very large shareholder and have no such concerns, as don't the many I chat to offline, one a top 20 holder.
> 
> Stick to facts and this can be a great forum for sharing and not deterorate into what another forum has become, a total farce. Your purposeful, negative agenda targetting PEN and PEN only was obvious from your first post here.
> 
> Keep it civil and I assure you I will as well. Post as you did on HC and started to do here already I for one will counter all you put up. Just keep it real.





Please don't "lecture" me.

Last year I highlighted a descending triangle formation providing both support & resistance levels.
I believed support would fail, it didn't, and you got your parabolic rally.

Believe it or not, PEN would be at this level with or without Fukushima - that's what happens after a parabola.

My view re uranium will take more than a few months to alter, if ever. Have you surveyed people who don't own uranium shares? Do they share your views?

I read the forums, the concern's not a generalisation.

Forums are for sharing opinions, not a PR offshoot of companies.

I won't apologise for my negative views, I'm just keeping it real.

Just keep it civil...


----------



## hangseng

If your view on uranium is so full of concern, why is it you only select a small cap uranium explorer to voice your concerns?

Why not BHP, Rio (ERA), PDN the producers and the multitude of other companies in exploration phase?

You have been purposeful and directed since early last year on another forum and your charting became manic to the point of ridiculous. I once respected your charting attempts and stated so, but you threw that out the window when you chose to go on a personal attack for whatever reason. One that to this day perplexes me, as it was I thet came to your support when I first saw persoinal attacks against you.

For whatever reason you have singled out PEN for your charting and now posting all manner of supposed negatives you can dig up, again only on the PEN thread. 

Yes forums are for expressing views and sharing information, providing the intent is genuine and without an intent to harm or deceive. 

Despite your fanciful view, I am not not a "PR offshoot" of PEN and nor have I anything to do with the company apart from owning shares. Unlike you, I base my views on PEN and the uranium industry on over 4 years of extensive research and direct mining and project construction industry involvement. My views are shared now with many industry analysts and companies involved in the industry who are purposefully advancing and with good reason, despite a 1:1000 year event.

Hartleys view is now shared by RCR Capital Research and now clearly by PALA and Nucore who have invested millions in PEN.

You don't have to like it but it is going to happen with PEN, a few other companies and the uranium industry generally, charts or no charts.

*"Demand is Coming*...*Supply is Not"*
Argonaut Research, Australian Uranium Conference July 2011.

Get used to it!


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Yes forums are for expressing views and sharing information, providing the intent is genuine and without an intent to harm or deceive.




Please, my intent was genuine last year, as I believe yours was this year when you suggested a target of =/> 20c? 
Not sure about the $1.00 call a few years back though.

How do you envisage meaningful SP appreciation when the uranium chart, (supply/demand), looks like this?


----------



## Purd2

Joe Blow said:


> Just a reminder that I will continue to remove:
> 
> 
> No/Low content posts
> Off topic posts
> Posts intended solely to provoke others
> Posts that contain price targets will no substantiation/reasoning/analysis provided
> Posts that contain personal attacks
> 
> Either post some relevant information, analysis or question or please refrain from posting in this thread.




I hope that was in regard to the poster phishpheet Joe! I have resisted the urge to slam him.


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> Please don't "lecture" me.
> 
> Last year I highlighted a descending triangle formation providing both support & resistance levels.
> I believed support would fail, it didn't, and you got your parabolic rally.




Hope you bought in then.



> Believe it or not, PEN would be at this level with or without Fukushima - that's what happens after a parabola.



If you look at everything on a linear chart then all runners will look like parabolic rallies.
How about AUT? Parabolic rally too? BHP on a monthly chart? Google?

Here's PEN's run on a log chart. Nice channel actually.


----------



## Joe Blow

Purd2 said:


> I hope that was in regard to the poster phishpheet Joe! I have resisted the urge to slam him.




I'd prefer not to name names, but I was motivated to make the post after removing two unacceptable posts. It was more of a general reminder to everyone as the PEN thread seems to be a neverending source of trouble. 

As for slamming people, please don't. It will only result in a retaliatory slam which will only end up in a brawl that I will have to break up. Please refer only to the content of others posts, rather than the posters themselves.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Hangseng, can you tell me why ASF members should invest in PEN and not other Uranium explorers, producers. 

The sp seems to follow the U price for many of them.

gg


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> How do you envisage meaningful SP appreciation when the uranium chart, (supply/demand), looks like this?




As the weekly price indicator has fallen US$1.50 to US$51.75/lb, what will be the ramifications on PEN's SP if the $50 support level should fail? Can't be positive.

It's not uncommon for investors to come into a stock & yet the SP falls...

IMO


----------



## barney

skyQuake said:


> Here's PEN's run on a log chart. Nice channel actually.
> View attachment 43749




Nice indeed  It was an aggressive channel which often happens when the traders are on the job for an extended period. 

If we assume that PEN is the real deal, then perhaps after the traders have milked it, the Investors might create a slightly more *conservative* channel (below)

If the SP holds post DFS and Nucor are happy to pay a premium to be involved as Hang has mentioned, the SP could do anything ..... 

On the flipside, if I was about to invest a few $million dependent on a specific time range already agreed on, I would be happy to see the SP drop so I wasn't penalised too much for getting involved 

I guess it depends on whether the big players have swung a "short term" deal .... but I will definitely have a couple of trawlers sitting in the queue just in case we get a short term down spike  ..... certainly getting to an interesting stage.


----------



## barney

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Hangseng, can you tell me why ASF members should invest in PEN and not other Uranium explorers, producers.
> 
> gg




Funnily enough GG, I think Chalea's apparent negativety actually answers your question 



Chalea said:


> As the weekly price indicator has fallen US$1.50 to US$51.75/lb, what will be the ramifications on PEN's SP if the $50 support level should fail?




If we take into account that a falling U price will put pressure on the "marginal" future producers ... it would be reasonable to expect that those companies that can "survive" in the short term will be far better placed in the medium/longer term ...... Supply and Demand eventually become balanced.

If PEN get their Permit to Mine, they enter into a different league altogether as far as Uranium is concerned. If players like Pala and Nucorp etc etc are happy to take positions with our little aussie minnow, I'm happy to respect that their due diligence at the "coal front" is a bit more informed than mine


----------



## tech/a

Chalea said:


> Please, my intent was genuine last year, as I believe yours was this year when you suggested a target of =/> 20c?
> Not sure about the $1.00 call a few years back though.
> 
> How do you envisage meaningful SP appreciation when the uranium chart, (supply/demand), looks like this?




Forget the copious announcements offered up for reasons PEN or any other U stock
Performs

Take a look at the chart
That's all you need to watch!


----------



## hangseng

barney said:


> Funnily enough GG, I think Chalea's apparent negativety actually answers your question
> 
> 
> 
> If we take into account that a falling U price will put pressure on the "marginal" future producers ... it would be reasonable to expect that those companies that can "survive" in the short term will be far better placed in the medium/longer term ...... Supply and Demand eventually become balanced.
> 
> If PEN get their Permit to Mine, they enter into a different league altogether as far as Uranium is concerned. If players like Pala and Nucorp etc etc are happy to take positions with our little aussie minnow, I'm happy to respect that their due diligence at the "coal front" is a bit more informed than mine





Spot on!

PEN is already noted, based on the PFS metrics, as being close to the lowest opex and capex of all the U hopefuls. Also PEN will almost certainly now be the next producer, some may not even get there. 

Without question there are currently more advanced companies in terms of jorc resources, EXT notably along with others such as BMN in Namibia. Australian explorers once the favoured stocks are now toxic due to labor and the greens.

PEN will be producing and cashing up ready to commence one of potentially the best uranium mines in the world, IMO Karoo will definitely be just that.

Whilst others just keep on adding to resource and go nowhere, PEN will be a cash cow.

It offers excellent upside for low cost entry. If the naysayers of uranium are proved correct and the price goes down, then PEN will survive with others placed on hold and others simply fade away. Only LOW COST producers will survive. 

The irony of that scenario is that the U price will be forced up due to lack of sufficient supply for existing energy producers, let alone the many new ones coming online. The others will then seek to proceed to mining whilst PEN takes the ake and the cream of a spike in the U price until supply meets demand.

PEN gg is simply a winner no matter what the U price is, others need it to be higher. If it goes higher a forecast, then PEN wins regardless.

You could buy EXT or PDN and maybe have a 2-3 bagger in the next 3-4 years. Or you could buy PEN and potentially have a 3-4 bagger in the next 1-2 years. Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years.

But who knows where the industry is going. It may push PEN much higher than anticipated, or it may send PEN and all others companies to the wall. The latter needing the nuclear power industry to cease to exist. Which do you think is more likely? My money literally is on the former.

By the way gg did you have a look at that "tip"? Nice little run today


----------



## Ubershrewd

Is anyone worried about the effect of the US debt crisis on the SP of PEN? I can't help but notice that the impending DFS release is so near to their Aug 2 deadline. If Congress cannot satisfactorily solve their problem in time, will this severely dampen the effect of the DFS results (assuming they are good) on the SP in the short term? 

Just stopping by with a random thought.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years.





Why do many see production as the Holy Grail of SP appreciation?

Production will see the exodus of speculators and SP collapse/stagnation.

Remember PDN?


----------



## barney

Chalea said:


> Why do many see production as the Holy Grail of SP appreciation?
> 
> Production *will* see the exodus of speculators and SP collapse/stagnation.
> 
> Remember PDN?




Speculators will obviously speculate more in the pre-production time frames due to the higher % gains possible.  If the SP stagnates or collapses post production, the share was obviously over valued pre-production.

Regarding PDN, I think it was more a combination of their poor aquisition of Summit (SMM), and the failing of the market in general which created the SP to collapse.

A chart of the XAO and PDN over the same time frame ..... not unsimilar.


----------



## Chalea

barney said:


> Regarding PDN, I think it was more a combination of their poor aquisition of Summit (SMM), and the failing of the market in general which created the SP to collapse.





Explain FMG then. Name any company whose SP kept climbing after production started.

Explain how "Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years" is anything but a ramp?



"Official ASF Policy on Ramping

    As ASF has grown the amount of ramping in stock threads has increased noticably and it has become apparent to me very recently that in order to maintain standards here I needed to put together an official ASF policy on ramping. In this post I want to outline what is acceptable and what is unacceptable to post in stock threads.

        If you state that a stock's share price is going to go up or down you MUST provide reasoning for your point of view. Posts that fail to provide any reasoning will be deleted without notice by myself or one of ASF's moderators. I understand that some will see this as 'heavy handed' moderation but the only alternative to this is to see standards of posting here drop to an unacceptable level and I am not willing to stand by and watch this happen.
        Posts that refer to some unidentified individual (a friend, a colleague or an insider) who has told you that a stock is about to move in one direction or another will be treated the same way and removed ASAP.
        Every statement you make must be able to be substantiated. For example it is not permissable to state that 'drilling results are about to be released and they will be positive' unless this statement is able to be substantiated. Posts that contain unsubstantiated statements will be removed without notice.
        Stocks are not to be recommended to others as a definite "buy" or "sell". As most of you are aware only licensed financial advisors can provide financial advice and recommending stocks to others as a "buy" or "sell" is inappropriate in a forum such as this. There are many other more appropriate terms that can be used to describe your view of a company's worth in relation to its share price such as "undervalued" and "overvalued", just to name a couple.
        All posts in a stock thread must contain some meaningful content. Bumping a stock thread by posting a smilie, a single word or an unrelated comment is not permitted and these posts will be removed without notice.
        Posting a series of posts that contain nothing more than a running commentary on a stock's intraday price action is discouraged as a single post is enough to alert others to a stock that seeing a significant move in one direction or another. If you would like to report on intraday price movements in a particular stock, please do it in the ASF Chat Room.
        The creation of threads asking others to recommend their 'hot stocks' or 'hot stock tips' is discouraged and these threads will be closed or deleted as they are primarily used for ramping.


    It will only be possible to maintain high standards here at ASF with the co-operation of the entire community, that is why I am asking members to report any incidents of blatant ramping. In the top right of every post you will notice this symbol ' '. If you click on it you will be able to report that particular post and alert myself and the moderators to it. As we are unable to review every thread reporting unacceptable posts will help us a great deal in our efforts to stamp out ramping on ASF.

    In summary, if you are not prepared to present a reasoned argument for your position/views on a stock then please consider not posting. I would much rather have fewer quality posts than a truckload of ramping posts. I suspect most ASF members feel the same way. For those who would prefer simply to ramp or downramp stocks, there are many other forums that will welcome you with open arms. Here at ASF we are determined to maintain a certain level of posting and continued ramping will ultimately result in the suspension of your ASF account."


----------



## hangseng

Chalea once again you display no knowledge whatsoever of PENS activities, nor what others believe based on both Lance AND Karoo as I indicated.

I will have the greatest of pleasure posting up more to attempt to dispel your complete ignorance over the fundamentals of this company and its obvious potential.

Based on BOTH Karoo and Lance PEN has a past valuation over over 70c. Not hard to find and go no further than the PEN website or here if you care to.

The main game is to have BOTH projects up and running, not just Lance. The build up to Karoo is where I belive the largest appreciation in the share price will occur. 

More later as I have things to do, in the meantime do some reading on Karoo and the potential value of what has been termed an "elephant" resource. Unlike you I research companies fundamentals and base my decisions and views on that, not on cut and paste charting. TA has its place used properly, my thoughts on my targetted exit has nothing to do with charts. Thats what you will do when I have already sold, look at charts.

My hope is for a 10b return in my time frame as per a past valuation, if not then a 5b will do the trick for me. 

Your "lecture" athough noted, was totally uncalled for. If I had stated this year, or even next year then I would agree with you. My time frame holds and I am patient enough to wait.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Based on BOTH Karoo and Lance PEN has a past valuation over over 70c. Not hard to find and go no further than the PEN website or here if you care to.
> 
> The main game is to have BOTH projects up and running, not just Lance. The build up to Karoo is where I belive the largest appreciation in the share price will occur.





I wouldn't touch Karoo/South Africa with a barge pole!

Did you know that South Africa's "future leader" is a disciple of Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe and that he -

"called for the Zimbabwe-style seizure of mines and farms in South Africa"

How will that affect your 10 bagger?


----------



## tech/a

Interesting H/S
I note then that you have been in the position twice for a 5b and not taken it.
(You evidently have an average of around 3c----although you added at 11c and 13c--
your average will be increased).
So 30c to 40c is your 10b target.
Not impossible PROVIDED demand for "U" is increased and price rises as a consequence.
Its as clear as day that *that is the driving influence *on PEN price not the other spin---errrrr ----associated production announcements

I agree there has been both atrocious and questionable T/A presented up---but also some worthy of consideration.

I still think a T/A could trade this with less risk,better allocation of capital and are more likely to return 10b on capital invested by *TRADING* it.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> I agree there has been both atrocious and questionable T/A presented up.




What is this, Masterchef?

Why don't you post a chart that points to PEN's rosy future?

Holders should compare PEN's recent chart to THIS.


----------



## tech/a

Chalea said:


> What is this, Masterchef?
> 
> Why don't you post a chart that points to PEN's rosy future?
> 
> Holders should compare PEN's recent chart to THIS.




Why dont you take the time to look back on the thread and read the technical Analysis already presented by myself and others.

As for now my last analysis is still valid and as such doesnt need up dating.
You seem to have an opinion of my stance on PEN.

I dont have a stance other than that presented technically.
post #1544 covers it in a nutshell.

Back to your books apprentice.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Why dont you take the time to look back on the thread and read the technical Analysis already presented by myself and others.
> 
> As for now my last analysis is still valid and as such doesnt need up dating.
> You seem to have an opinion of my stance on PEN.
> 
> I dont have a stance other than that presented technically.
> post #1544 covers it in a nutshell.
> 
> Back to your books apprentice.




LOL, that's not a double bottom, merely a test of support...

Can only be considered a double bottom if 12c is broken. Until then it's just wishful thinking...


----------



## tech/a

Where's 12c come into it.????

Do you actually trade or are you still on school holidays?






Current holdings and status


Yours are?


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Where's 12c come into it.????




Oh dear, and you call me an apprentice?
I can't believe I'm being asked this but here goes...

You can't call any pattern a double top/bottom unless the trough/peak between the 2 points is broken.

Are you aware the SP bounced to 12c after the crash?

Link


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

Chalea said:


> Oh dear, and you call me an apprentice?
> I can't believe I'm being asked this but here goes...
> 
> You can't call any pattern a double top/bottom unless the trough/peak between the 2 points is broken.
> 
> Are you aware the SP bounced to 12c after the crash?
> 
> Link




Hardly a test of support. Support was broken when the price went through 0.075 - clear area of resistance at that price point.

Regarding double bottom - using your link:



> As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive toughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.




Tech/a is spot on about the double bottom - there are two troughs at around 0.057 with a peak in between at 0.12. Classic double bottom!


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Interesting H/S
> I note then that you have been in the position twice for a 5b and not taken it.
> (You evidently have an average of around 3c----although you added at 11c and 13c--
> your average will be increased).
> So 30c to 40c is your 10b target.
> Not impossible PROVIDED demand for "U" is increased and price rises as a consequence.
> Its as clear as day that *that is the driving influence *on PEN price not the other spin---errrrr ----associated production announcements
> 
> I agree there has been both atrocious and questionable T/A presented up---but also some worthy of consideration.
> 
> I still think a T/A could trade this with less risk,better allocation of capital and are more likely to return 10b on capital invested by *TRADING* it.





This may surprise you tech, but generally no argument from me there.

I have often stated there is a place for both TA and FA, used effectively together is literally the perfect methodology, if in fact there is one IMO. I do use TA, although not to the high level you and some others I watch do. You, like me are never always right so the balance is worthy of all to consider.

If I had the time to watch PEN's every move, and regarded my day trading ability high enough (of which I don't as yet) I believe I would have at least half of my current holdings in PEN as trading stock. 

However I don't so I go with the next best things I have available to me, time and knowledge. I have bought PEN consistently now on dips since Fukushima, not perfect bottoms but close enough for me. I have used charting to assess these moves, with my buy at 6.1 being my best yet in both quantity and price, my worst at 8.3 on the 28/4 however that was low quantity so no harm done and I still hold.

I am using TA to buy at the moment not to sell. My time to exit PEN will be mostly based on what I believe to be the peak of the speculative runup to Karoo. As with my buying it is unlikely I will pick the top and not my intention. My intention is to fill my bank account with what I am satisfied with at a particular point in time.

I actually don't completely disagree with Chalea in that stocks rarely run high post production, unless there is something significant to followup.

With hindsight (isn't it a wonderful thing), I would have been better off selling at 15.5 and sitting back and buying more at sub 6c and then sell on the rise that occurred etc etc etc. However I don't have a crystal ball and nor did I have the time nor capability to watch PEN's every move during that time. 

I do know of one person that did sell at 15 and bought back at 6c and he is regarded now as the guru of my little group of offline friends. In fact I should throw out all the rule books and just follow what he does, as his record is now looking pretty damn good. 

But with me I am merely a simple learned soul, so I rely on what I actually know and what I believe will occur. My holdings in PEN are well in profit now and I believe will go much higher as I have stated before.

If PEN isn't looking like doing what I believe it will or falters in the next 12 months, be sure that I will move on regardless based on fundamentals of both PEN and the industry. Asd you rightly point out there will need to be an appreciation, or at least a holding of the current uranium price for me to achieve my end goal.

I am not "in love" with this stock, I am excited with what it has the potential to do.


----------



## Chalea

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Tech/a is spot on about the double bottom - there are two troughs at around 0.057 with a peak in between at 0.12. Classic double bottom!





"Classic double bottom!"

If, and only if, the SP breaks 12c


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> "Classic double bottom!"
> 
> If, and only if, the SP breaks 12c




Do you actually trade or use TA to predict where stocks go?
Genuine question.


----------



## tech/a

Yep as I thought.

Practical application and theory ---vastly different---as you may one day learn if you ever actually trade.
*Buy the way* Im happy to call it test of support and an un proven Double Bottom if it makes you feel better.

You have some interesting views some of value and others of less value.
PEN hardly requires comment as its in a corrective pattern which is likely to last for sometime.Without a supportive "U" price and demand it will stay languishing between 6 and 10c regardless of announcements.
A fall in demand and price in "U" will see previous lows re visited---in the 2's.

You seem to attack anyone with a view and place yourself as expert with nothing more than cut and paste information, I'm beginning to see where the others are coming from with regard to your forum persona.

H/S
Doesn't surprise me.
Ive come to understand your position and respect it---even applaud it.
Anyway until anything changes substantially on a technical stand point I see no need to keep posting---so will speak again when and if things alter technically to the positive or negative.

Enjoy your trading to those who trade and keep on reading to those who are saving enough to get started.


----------



## Chalea

"Buy(sic) the way Im happy to call it test of support and an un proven Double Bottom if it makes you feel better."

I posted my bull/bear targets days ago.

I'd feel better if you didn't call it anything actually...well, maybe a mid crash consolidation...


----------



## Joe Blow

This thread has gone off on a tangent again! Not only that but it is becoming increasingly personal in tone, which only serves to lessen its usefulness and clutter up the thread with irrelevant, off-topic posts. I have gone ahead and deleted all posts made today that do not directly concern themselves with PEN.

On the matter of motivation for posting, my view is that it is largely irrelevant as long as the information *is* relevant and the analysis posted has had some thought go into it. Judge a person's post by the quality of the analysis or the usefulness of the information they have posted, not whether or not they hold the stock. Some may have good reasons to be long on PEN, others may have good reason not to hold. In the end, it doesn't really matter. What does matter the quality of the content that is posted.

What I will not tolerate is overly aggressive posting styles, taking pot shots at or deliberately provoking other thread participants, no/low content or off topic posts, or posts where assertions are made (and that includes price targets) but no explanation or reasons are offered up in support. If you make an assertion, please be prepared to back it up or be prepared to cop an infraction. 

Please note that this post is not intended to generate further discussion on these issues, it is an attempt (once again!) to get this thread back on track. It has become apparent to me that it is finally time for zero tolerance because the only other alternative is to shut the thread down, and that would be unfair to those who wish to discuss PEN in a civil and constructive way. There will be no more warnings, only infractions and account suspensions, so I urge everyone to please heed my words.

Now, for the final time, lets get back to discussing PEN.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> Spot on!
> 
> PEN is already noted, based on the PFS metrics, as being close to the lowest opex and capex of all the U hopefuls. Also PEN will almost certainly now be the next producer, some may not even get there.
> 
> Without question there are currently more advanced companies in terms of jorc resources, EXT notably along with others such as BMN in Namibia. Australian explorers once the favoured stocks are now toxic due to labor and the greens.
> 
> PEN will be producing and cashing up ready to commence one of potentially the best uranium mines in the world, IMO Karoo will definitely be just that.
> 
> Whilst others just keep on adding to resource and go nowhere, PEN will be a cash cow.
> 
> It offers excellent upside for low cost entry. If the naysayers of uranium are proved correct and the price goes down, then PEN will survive with others placed on hold and others simply fade away. Only LOW COST producers will survive.
> 
> The irony of that scenario is that the U price will be forced up due to lack of sufficient supply for existing energy producers, let alone the many new ones coming online. The others will then seek to proceed to mining whilst PEN takes the ake and the cream of a spike in the U price until supply meets demand.
> 
> PEN gg is simply a winner no matter what the U price is, others need it to be higher. If it goes higher a forecast, then PEN wins regardless.
> 
> You could buy EXT or PDN and maybe have a 2-3 bagger in the next 3-4 years. Or you could buy PEN and potentially have a 3-4 bagger in the next 1-2 years. Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years.
> 
> But who knows where the industry is going. It may push PEN much higher than anticipated, or it may send PEN and all others companies to the wall. The latter needing the nuclear power industry to cease to exist. Which do you think is more likely? My money literally is on the former.
> 
> By the way gg did you have a look at that "tip"? Nice little run today




Thanks for that Hangseng. For a fundamentalist you are good, diligent and a believer.

Tech/a's uranium chart looms large for me. If this little monkey rises sharply I'm out, I lacked a uranium stock prior to meeting you on ASF, and am comfortable atm.

Thanks.

As for the other matter, low volume and big gaps do not for a runner make, although I've not looked this evening.

So Hangseng, To PEN, I went to another PEN forum tonight, they are missing you, but seem a grab bag of poor spellers, illiterates, ninkumpooks and losers punctuated by a few people of worth. Stay with ASF and contribute.

gg


----------



## hangseng

> QUOTE gg: Stay with ASF and contribute.




I fully intend to gg, as I have done for a few years here now.

Thanks for the kind words, you never know one day I may turn to the "dark side".

I do respect the TA work done here and there are a few good ones over the road as well. I tried a few years ago to do day trading and weren't particularly good at it as I had no understanding of TA. I have the occasional win now but quite simply don't have the time to keep watch constantly as needed IMO. 

I may consult the residents here to try my hand again. IVR is one that has caught my eye and may just have a practice on that 

In regard PEN, as I said to Tech I agree the U price needs to stabilise at least, or increase. PEN can still be profitable at an even lower U price whereas others simply can't and would be placed on hold indefinitely. That said it wouldn't do much to help my intended cause here as indicated, and I would probably call it a day and pull up stumps.

I just don't believe the latter will occur, not in my time frame. Time will tell if me and the many I take notice of that know the industry intimately and far better than me are wrong or right. I am close to fully loaded now though so I will be looking at other plays.

One thing is for certain, I knew investing in a uranium stock was never going to be popular, as it wasn't when I held EXT. That has proved correct, I was bagged when in EXT with the forum trolls stating EXT was only a "dog stock" going nowhere, and I am now bagged with PEN. Nobody ever said success was easy or popular, probably why most choose easier paths and follow rather than lead.

I wish you good trading and good health...so stop smoking cigars


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Had you noticed the similarities in the chart to the 2007 crash?
> 
> How about the bearish rising wedge?





*Time for a closer look at the bearish rising wedge.*

PEN is approaching the optimal break-out area of the pattern, (50-75%).

7.6c looks to be tomorrow's support level...


----------



## hangseng

I would be interested in TA views of these comments from IC Charts, based on chaleas rising wedge theory put up. You may very well be on the money it seems chalea providing certain rules are met, of which they currently aren't it seems.

On the 13/4/11 7.4c was displayed as strong support on rising volume that continued to the 28/4 where the sp collapsed again. So I believe 7.4c is the support level not 7.6c, just now is displaying also why I believe this with 7.4 support holding and 7.5 coming back quite well. Once again the PALA buy price of 7.5c. I have tried to post up a chart but my internet is incredibly bad here today so no go.

The chart is displaying a series of "higher highs and higher lows" since the 16/6, the beginning of the "rising wedge" being displayed. This is a bullish pattern and is not bearish until support is "convincingly broken", of which it hasn't been as yet.

Several rules of the bearish rising wedge formation have semingly been met, one being low volume. However not all rules have been met.

I am but a rank amateur at this, however it is of interest and I would be interested in all views of those with a better understanding. Maybe I am slowly turning to the "dark side" lol, but my question is genuine as I believe this could be a _watershed_ moment for PEN.

From IC charts:




> "*Bull Trends*A bull trend is identified by a series of rallies where each rally exceeds the highest point of the previous rally. The decline between rallies ends above the lowest point of the previous decline. A series of successive higher highs and higher lows.
> 
> Some purists argue that a trend ends if the sequence of higher highs and higher lows is broken. Others argue that a bear trend has not started until there is a lower High and Low nor has a bull trend started until there is a higher Low and High.
> 
> For practical purposes, only accept large corrections as trend changes in the primary trend.
> 
> A bull trend starts when price rallies above the previous high;
> A bull trend ends when price declines below the previous low;
> A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend (and vice versa)."
> 
> Source: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/dow_theory_trends.php


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> So I believe 7.4c is the support level not 7.6c...





Last night's 7.6c call came from the point on the wedge that would intersect with today's candlestick.

IMO today's price action saw support broken.

Check the RSI trend line break for conformation. 

If the RSI has closed below 50 it's further conformation of the bear move down.

Note the underlined sentences. 

The green chart lines give an approximate SP target of 5c, (for this pattern).

If it cracks 6.0c then my weekly chart target comes into play.


----------



## flyboy77

FA will always wallop TA for an emerging story like PEN.

All that guff about TA on the U price chart is simply bunk.

Anyone with even a basic appreciation of the uranium market knows that the spot price (as depicted in that chart) is essentially irrelevant when it comes to the price that uranium producers (hopefully PEN in 2012) agree contractually with end users i.e. utilities and the like.

Last time I check 80-90% of uranium mined is sold this way (and even the contractual agreements vary significantly wrt price, delivery, CPI adjustments, floor and ceiling prices etc).

The uranium market price setting mechanisms are very opaque. Individual contract prices can and DO vary significantly from the so called (quoted) long term contract price which hovers just south of 70/lb last time I checked.

So, in conclusion, any one making investment decisions based on the chart of the spot price is making one big error.


----------



## hangseng

Spot on Flyboy.

However I will now be the first to admit that today PEN broke support convincingly. Short term TA wise PEN (along with the rest of the market) is a bit crook. It may take the now "Pre-NR" announcement to turn PEN around. If it doesn't then we may be in for more of a beating. 

I am still of the opinion fundamentally this is a very sound company heading into near production. However one can't deny today was the "watershed" I wasn't looking for. I am not going to pee in anyones pocket and say otherwise.

Licking my wounds....:-(

I tip my hat to the TA people here today....

The only positive is I have cash waiting and will again buy if this beating does eventuate.

Nothing new I can see in the ann apart from this in regard to what Nucore will pay.



> *$15m Share Placement and Strategic Alliance*
> On 23 June 2011 Peninsula announced that it had executed a Term Sheet with NuCore Energy LLC, a North American company focused on the commercial nuclear fuels market and services sector, for a $15,000,000 share placement.
> 
> The Placement is priced at a 50% premium to the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) *(with a floor price of $0.075 and a cap of $0.095)* in the period immediately following publication of the results of the Company’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) at the Lance Projects in Wyoming"





So right now PEN is trading at below what the Nucore base VWAP will be. So the minimum Nucore will pay is 11.25c per PEN share and maximum of 14.25c. 

Yet PEN trades now at 7.2c ......sigh


----------



## tech/a

flyboy77 said:


> FA will always wallop TA for an emerging story like PEN.
> 
> All that guff about TA on the U price chart is simply bunk.
> 
> Anyone with even a basic appreciation of the uranium market knows that the spot price (as depicted in that chart) is essentially irrelevant when it comes to the price that uranium producers (hopefully PEN in 2012) agree contractually with end users i.e. utilities and the like.
> 
> Last time I check 80-90% of uranium mined is sold this way (and even the contractual agreements vary significantly wrt price, delivery, CPI adjustments, floor and ceiling prices etc).
> 
> The uranium market price setting mechanisms are very opaque. Individual contract prices can and DO vary significantly from the so called (quoted) long term contract price which hovers just south of 70/lb last time I checked.
> 
> *So, in conclusion, any one making investment decisions based on the chart of the spot price is making one big error*.




Really?

So going forward what price do you think will be being negotiated for "U" now?
Do you really think end users will be negotiating a higher price than current spot??

So "U" companies are currently getting higher than Spot price and STILL falling.
Hell future looks rosy!

Think Im reading my fair share of bunk in this post.


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> So "U" companies are currently getting higher than Spot price and STILL falling.
> Hell future looks rosy!
> 
> Think Im reading my fair share of bunk in this post.




Yes. Or rosy comments like this...



hangseng said:


> It offers excellent upside for low cost entry. If the naysayers of uranium are proved correct and the price goes down, then PEN will survive with others placed on hold and others simply fade away. Only LOW COST producers will survive.
> 
> The irony of that scenario is that the U price will be forced up due to lack of sufficient supply for existing energy producers, let alone the many new ones coming online. The others will then seek to proceed to mining whilst PEN takes the ake and the cream of a spike in the U price until supply meets demand.
> 
> PEN gg is simply a winner no matter what the U price is, others need it to be higher. If it goes higher a forecast, then *PEN wins regardless.*




PEN will be a winner on "relative" terms. That doesn't automatically make the shareholder a winner in "absolute" terms.

You want U price to be high, you want exchange rate to be low, and you want there to be lots of stuff in the ground. So far none of these are given.


----------



## hangseng

skc said:


> Yes. Or rosy comments like this...
> 
> PEN will be a winner on "relative" terms. That doesn't automatically make the shareholder a winner in "absolute" terms.
> 
> You want U price to be high, you want exchange rate to be low, and you want there to be lots of stuff in the ground. So far none of these are given.





Highly selective and derogatory comment skc...

Read in full context along with my post #1675 

I said as much in that post and could not have been any more ballanced, yet you chose to ignore that to support your derogatory "rosy" comment.

Lots of kickers around here and often, with very few worthy contributors.

As for "lots of stuff in the ground" not being a given, you need to do some homework. As for the U price I still hold "supply and demand" are what will eventually drive that. At present it has been negative sentiment since Fukashima, not reality.


----------



## tech/a

> not reality.




H/S Very much reality!!

There has been and will continue to be a shift in thinking.
There are alternatives to Yellow cake.
None of the issues seen with current Nuclear production.

Conveniently over looked


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Really?
> 
> So going forward what price do you think will be being negotiated for "U" now?
> Do you really think end users will be negotiating a higher price than current spot??
> 
> So "U" companies are currently getting higher than Spot price and STILL falling.
> Hell future looks rosy!





tech, tech, tech....do some reading

http://www.u3o8.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/file/Uranium Price.pdf

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/dancing-on-uraniums-grave-but-it-aint-dead-yet/2011/06/15/

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=F3A19326-0ECA-EB58-BCAFD237D7E8A63E


It is a fact that can't be denied. 

Companies pay a higher that the spot price for long term contracts. That is not "bunk" it is a plain and simple fact and flyboy is as I said, "spot on" with his comment.

In July 2010 the U3O8 price was around $46/lb spot price and PEN negotiated a long term contract price of around $74/lb. 



> *Components of the Uranium Market*
> *Primary Supply = 60%*
> 
> Spot Price is only 1% of the total primary supply market
> 
> Long-Term Market Price is 59% of the total primary supply market
> 
> 
> *Secondary Supply =40%*
> 
> Spot Market 14% of the total secondary supply market
> 
> 
> Long-Term Market Price 26% of the total secondary supply market
> 
> 
> Spot Market = Only 15% of total market
> 
> *Long-Term Market Price = 85% of total market*




Crikeys people do some homework, it isn't really that hard.


----------



## madjohn

Friday, July 29, 2011    CHINA

BUSINESS NEWS

Markets

Commodities Precious metals Stock Statistics
 Tourism
 CLP pays US$11b for nuke plant stake
HONG Kong utility CLP Holdings Ltd yesterday said it has bought a 17 percent stake in a nuclear power plant in southern China for 70 billion yuan (US$11 billion).

CLP said its nuclear investment unit signed a deal with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Company Ltd to buy the stake in the Yangjiang Nuclear Power Station.

Construction started in 2008 on the 6,000 megawatt plant in western Guangdong Province, which consists of six 1,000MW pressurized water reactors. The plant, which is 220 kilometers west of Hong Kong, is expected to be completed in phases from 2013 to 2017. The electricity produced will be sold locally.

The two firms also run the coastal Daya Bay nuclear plant, which is also in Guangdong and sends most of its power to Hong Kong.

China is promoting alternative energy sources such as nuclear, wind and solar to curb surging demand for imported oil and gas and to reduce environmental damage from heavy reliance on coal.

However, government officials signaled the country’s nuclear policy would stress safety over rapid development following Japan’s devastating nuclear crisis, which was sparked by a huge tsunami in March that damaged a coastal power plant.

CLP sought to allay safety fears about the new plant, saying it “carefully assessed” safety standards of the design, construction and operational planning to make sure they comply with regulations.

The power plant will also follow “safety enhancement measures for withstanding extreme multiple natural disasters and strengthening capability for emergency preparedness,” CLP said.

China’s nuclear regulators said in June safety reviews of 28 reactors under construction should be done by October. Thirteen operating plants were checked and given clean bills of health. – Shanghai Daily





Tags: CLP Holdings



 Posted by CBN on Jul 26 2011. Filed under Energy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry 




 Posted by CBN on Jul 26 2011. Filed under Energy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> H/S Very much reality!!
> 
> ..... and will continue to be a shift in thinking.




That is your opinion of which you are entitled to, I happen to disagree as is my opinion.

The only shift in thinking has been a knee jerk reaction from Germany (political decision and they as yet have no other alternatives) and journalists that thrive on simpsons education and creating fear driven paranoia.

Posting that doesn't make it fact.


----------



## Chalea

flyboy77 said:


> FA will always wallop TA for an emerging story like PEN.
> 
> All that guff about TA on the U price chart is simply bunk.
> 
> So, in conclusion, any one making investment decisions based on the chart of the spot price is making one big error.





If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped...


----------



## Donga

hangseng said:


> If I had the time to watch PEN's every move, and regarded my day trading ability high enough (of which I don't as yet) I believe I would have at least half of my current holdings in PEN as trading stock.
> 
> But with me I am merely a simple learned soul, so I rely on what I actually know and what I believe will occur. My holdings in PEN are well in profit now and I believe will go much higher as I have stated before.
> 
> If PEN isn't looking like doing what I believe it will or falters in the next 12 months, be sure that I will move on regardless based on fundamentals of both PEN and the industry. Asd you rightly point out there will need to be an appreciation, or at least a holding of the current uranium price for me to achieve my end goal.
> 
> I am not "in love" with this stock, I am excited with what it has the potential to do.




Have kept the bits of one of your recent posts here HS that mirror my sentiments - have a fulltime job, retire end August  and even then don't wish to spend my life on the stock market. In past two years have done very well and consolidated my play portfolio to a team of 20 small cap miners, of which the top 5 represent 70% of the portfolio and PEN is the largest. Didn't consider selling at 15 cents, first stop was going to be 20c and now will wait until next year, when I'm 60 (wow) before selling any so won't pay any tax at all. 

PEN and other uranium miners have been dealt harshly, and you are right that it is "sentiment" not the reality that will dawn for some sooner than others as PEN head towards production in a nuclear friendly environment (btw saving many lives in the process - for those unaware of fossil fuels fatalities per annum, pls just spend 10 mins googling - funny how so many "Greens" don't seem to be able to look at the data).     

So much for my rant of the day, am as keen on PEN as ever and would be interested in your comments hangseng on the Quarterly released today.


----------



## skc

hangseng said:


> Highly selective and derogatory comment skc...
> 
> Read in full context along with my post #1675
> 
> I said as much in that post and could not have been any more ballanced, yet you chose to ignore that to support your derogatory "rosy" comment.
> 
> Lots of kickers around here and often, with very few worthy contributors.
> 
> As for "lots of stuff in the ground" not being a given, you need to do some homework. As for the U price I still hold "supply and demand" are what will eventually drive that. At present it has been negative sentiment since Fukashima, not reality.




You said PEN is a winner regardless of U price because it is a low cost producer. I said PEN will only be a "relative" winner if the U price is low. Ignoring that fact would adopting an optimistic outlook to say the least.

So how is that "derogatory"?

P.S. Please don't answer or Joe will have to post here again.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> So right now PEN is trading at below what the Nucore base VWAP will be. So the minimum Nucore will pay is 11.25c per PEN share and maximum of 14.25c.
> 
> Yet PEN trades now at 7.2c ......sigh





Does the 'due diligence' mentioned below include technical analysis of PEN's chart?       corn:


----------



## tech/a

Chalea said:


> If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped...




Oh my oh my

Please understand that MACD will not cross below it's M/A unless price falls
Price WON'T fall because of the MACD the M/A's are a calculation from price action and a reaction to price---a trailing indicator.

MACD has no effect on a price.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> MACD has no effect on a price.




Pleeeeease....:shake: 

So when the traders do their scans Monday night and see PEN has performed a MACD bear cross they're going to buy?

*SELL?*


----------



## hangseng

skc said:


> You said PEN is a winner regardless of U price because it is a low cost producer. I said PEN will only be a "relative" winner if the U price is low. Ignoring that fact would adopting an optimistic outlook to say the least.
> 
> So how is that "derogatory"?
> 
> P.S. Please don't answer or Joe will have to post here again.




You chose to post a small selection of what I posted then termed it "rosy" in a clearly derogatory manner.

If you had read my other posts and comprehended what I posted I actually agree with what you state. So why you chose to post what you did is beyond me.

I made it very clear that even if the U price drops PEN will succeed. I also stated that it is also unlikely my goals would be met and I would sell and move on, if in fact that occurred. So put simply I implied that the PEN share price is unlikely to increase to the levels I had hoped, should the (long term) uranium price fall to such levels.

If you want to quote posters to make a point use the full story not as you did. Doing what you did placed my posts totally out of context.


----------



## tech/a

Chalea said:


> Pleeeeease....:shake:
> 
> So when the traders do their scans Monday night and see PEN has performed a MACD bear cross they're going to buy?
> 
> *SELL?*




MACD will only cross if price falls.

Price will be falling MACD is only two averages


----------



## hangseng

Heres is one for the techs to beat each other up on.

This is a computer generated view only.





> *Technical Analysis*
> 
> Overall              ★★★ Neutral
> 
> 
> *Price and moving averages*
> 
> Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND below long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that:
> *This stock is BULLISH in short-term*; and NEUTRAL in mid-long term.
> 
> *Bollinger Bands*
> 
> PEN.AX has closed below upper band by 33.4%. Bollinger Bands are 56.2% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to PEN.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this narrow range for 19 bars.
> *This is a sign that the market may be about to initiate a new trend. *
> 
> ★ Strong Sell ★★ Sell ★★★ Neutral ★★★★ Buy ★★★★★ Strong Buy
> 
> http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=pen&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis






Should be like a red rag to a bull lol...


I should add this was generated AFTER market close today.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> MACD will only cross if price falls.





I know...

"If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped..."

Should read -

If the price falls resulting in the MACD crossing down through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped because traders will sell when they see a bear signal...

...and they have seen my price targets...

Thanks for the opportunity of repeating this important message!


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Heres is one for the techs to beat each other up on.
> This is a computer generated view only.
> Should be like a red rag to a bull lol...
> 
> I should add this was generated AFTER market close today.




LOL, so was this one!

Here's one for the management believing fundamental buyers to beat each other up on.

Day 15 today I believe...


----------



## $20shoes

If the price falls resulting in the MACD crossing down through it's signal line on Monday there will literally be no influence at all on the share price. Buyers and sellers will say look at your MAs, remark "how cute" and continue exchanging parcels of shares at fair value for any given moment in time.


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> LOL, so was this one!
> 
> Here's one for the management believing fundamental buyers to beat each other up on.
> 
> Day 15 today I believe...





Yes Chalea it is day 15 and nothing has come out. Yes it is a disappointment and what we were told hasn't eventuated, so what. That along with a down market and jitters over the US debt position hasn't helped most stocks today. 

Round one to you  Knock yourself out! 

But hey that's life, it's Friday, you get that and I need a beer or two.


Have a great weekend all


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Chalea, your TA on PEN though rudimentary, is correct, but not for the reasons you give.

Less indicators, more price and volume, and humility and something new, to the feast, would serve you better.

Any old idiot with a program, the internet and an ability to cut and paste, can post as you have.

I do. And I recognise my idiot state on TA.

However when the spellin-challenged Tech/a posts, I listen and watch, as cohonas don't depend on spellin nor indicators.

PEN will probably fall, and I will have to make a decision whether to bail at a small loss or stay for the future prospects.

Your analysis is not going to make an iota of difference to my decision.  

gg


----------



## Chalea

Flicking through the news this morning and thought these would be of _interest_ -

"...BHP Billiton Ltd will delay uranium production at the Olympic Dam mine expansion in South Australia as a result of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan *and ensuing uncertainty about the future of nuclear energy*..."

Link

And

"Areva's first half results show immediate impact from the Fukushima accident and Germany's new nuclear policy...

...Cancellation of orders for uranium and nuclear fuel came to â‚¬191 million ($273 million) in recent months, with many Japanese reactors remaining offline and German utilities moving to accommodate Chancellor Angela Merkel's order to shut down eight units...

... *Another â‚¬700 million ($1.0 billion) in orders "present a risk of cancellation or renegotiation" for Areva, the company said in results for the first half of 2011."*...

Link


*Question - Have NuCore been reading the papers and seen PEN's chart recently?*


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> To suggest that price respects a displaced M/A is pure lunacy.




I beg to differ...

How do you explain the emphatic almost bearish engulfing reversal candlestick this week.

Every man and his dog was calling "breakout" last week!

The bearish rising wedge has broken out instead...

Target = 4.9c approximately.

Weekly RSI didn't confirm last week's breakout, instead showing a bearish respect of it's center line.

The over bought slow stochastic confirms the wedge break out by showing a bearish signal line cross.

In my *humble* opinion...


----------



## $20shoes

Chalea said:


> I beg to differ...
> 
> 
> Weekly RSI didn't confirm last week's breakout, instead showing a bearish respect of it's center line.
> 
> The over bought slow stochastic confirms the wedge break out by showing a bearish signal line cross.
> 
> In my *humble* opinion...





You do realise that price action has caused your squiggly lines to do that, don't you?


NOW as an exercise - REMOVE all indicators and lines from your chart.
GOOD. Now look at the chart. The price action has done the same thing, right? Nothing has changed regardless of whether your indicators are part of your chart or not. The market does not adhere to anything but the market. Your indicators show a smoothed average of what happened with momentum/price IN THE PAST. That is all they do. Nothing more.

Now ask yourself why the price action remains the same when you remove your indicators. Now ask yourself what use are they in helping you exploit a good risk to reward trade over and over and over again.


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> Flicking through the news this morning and thought these would be of _interest_ -
> 
> "...BHP Billiton Ltd will delay uranium production at the Olympic Dam mine expansion in South Australia as a result of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan *and ensuing uncertainty about the future of nuclear energy*..."
> 
> Link
> 
> And
> 
> "Areva's first half results show immediate impact from the Fukushima accident and Germany's new nuclear policy...
> 
> ...Cancellation of orders for uranium and nuclear fuel came to €191 million ($273 million) in recent months, with many Japanese reactors remaining offline and German utilities moving to accommodate Chancellor Angela Merkel's order to shut down eight units...
> 
> ... *Another €700 million ($1.0 billion) in orders "present a risk of cancellation or renegotiation" for Areva, the company said in results for the first half of 2011."*...
> 
> Link
> 
> 
> *Question - Have NuCore been reading the papers and seen PEN's chart recently?*




Yes the Simpsons educated are alive and well.

I was slated for stating BHP would not proceed with the Olympic Dam uranium expansion and the ERA delays and the high probability Camecos woes with Cigar Lake would continue. All of these will place pressure on the demand side and the U price will rise accordingly...IMHO.

BHP don't want to bring attention to themselves so they point to Japan and a perception view, yeah right. Look internally IMO.

This won't last IMO and demand will turn around once reality kicks in that reactors are being built worldwide and energy demand is building rapidly. The answer is clearly nuclear power and will be. Not windmills, geothermal, waves or solar although they form a part of the equation as does coal.

Back to sleep Bart...


----------



## Chalea

$20shoes said:


> You do realise that price action has caused your squiggly lines to do that, don't you?
> 
> Now ask yourself why the price action remains the same when you remove your indicators. Now ask yourself what use are they.





Well it's been a week and I'm still waiting for the first 'crayons' reference - although "school" & "apprentice" will do for now :nono:

Allow me to enlighten you -

In another realm PEN is spruiked within an inch of it's life.

Many of the spruikees rely on TA in order to make a living. 

Here is a definition of TA -

"Technical analysis is a broad name given to the study of a company via its trading activity (versus fundamental analysis, which studies the balance sheet etc.) of a company. Over the years, mathematicians and traders have used the pricing activity of stocks to derive formulas that assist in determining the underlying intentions of the trading/investing participants. Link

So you see, I do "realise that price action has caused your squiggly lines to do that"...

But do you realise that many of the other realm's spruikees will sell PEN without a second thought based solely on "squiggly lines"?

Well, you can maybe add a touch of management/other realm spruiker induced disillusion to the mix.corn:


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> All of these will place pressure on the demand side and the U price will rise accordingly...IMHO.





Newsflash, hot off the presses LOL...

"explorers in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh have found one of the world's largest deposits of uranium. "

:holysheep:


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> Newsflash, hot off the presses LOL...
> 
> "explorers in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh have found one of the world's largest deposits of uranium. "
> 
> :holysheep:




Rossing South also massive.....when will they be online and supplying the market?

What is the cost to recover the India deposit?

I will be long out of PEN before either of those two have any effect on supply/demand.

You wil have to do far better than that Bart.


----------



## madjohn

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...5-trillion-economy-as-komatsu-sharp-walk.html


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> I beg to differ...
> 
> How do you explain the emphatic almost bearish engulfing reversal candlestick this week.
> 
> Every man and his dog was calling "breakout" last week!
> 
> The bearish rising wedge has broken out instead...
> 
> Target = 4.9c approximately.
> 
> Weekly RSI didn't confirm last week's breakout, instead showing a bearish respect of it's center line.
> 
> The over bought slow stochastic confirms the wedge break out by showing a bearish signal line cross.
> 
> In my *humble* opinion...






*Short term rectangle support failed this week.

Pattern target shows a test of $50/the Fukushima crash low is imminent*


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> *Short term rectangle support failed this week.
> 
> Pattern target shows a test of $50/the Fukushima crash low is imminent*


----------



## tech/a

*PEN*
A technical view.

Click to expand


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> *Short term rectangle support failed this week.
> Pattern target shows a test of $50/the Fukushima crash low is imminent*





I'd say uranium's Fukushima $50 = PEN's 6.0c line in the sand.

Drop below and you've got quicksand...


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Agreed, an easy call. Sell the news will see 6c revisited  IMO





*The hourly chart shows a bearish rectangle pattern.
Approximate Target = 7.1 - ( 7.7 - 7.1 ) = 6.5c* corn:


----------



## tech/a

With regard to the rectangle analysis offered up for* PEN*

Range of a few bars equal rectangle ???!!!
A very very very long bow.

Some reading for you.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:rectangle_continuati


Its a long way to trading proficiently and profitably with T/A.
Around 10000 hrs is often toted. The vast chasm between 
*THEORY/HYPOTHESIS* and* Practical application* is rarely bridged.

I have witnessed many who have been where you are.
Few ever make it.
BOGGO and SKC are a few on this forum you may wish to follow.
There are others and as they say the cream always floats to the top.

Enjoy the journey.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> With regard to the rectangle analysis offered up for* PEN*
> Range of a few bars equal rectangle ???!!!
> A very very very long bow.





You'll soon see that it's "A very very very" good call though...:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

DJIA down 98
Genius


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> DJIA down 98
> Genius




You obviously have very little experience trading in penny dreadful stocks.

The DJIA could be up 980 points but PEN would, (and will), still fall through the floor.

Sentiment is everything...traders will sell and sell and sell...

If you were a swing trader why would you put a buy order in over 6.0/6.1c?

Look at your own chart, and then recall my target!


----------



## tech/a

Thanks


----------



## tigerboi

tech/a said:


> Thanks




im telling joe thats a low content post...for a low stock..


----------



## hangseng

Some may and some may not find this interesting...


http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/21601-fundamentals-in-place-for-uranium-bull.html



> _As investors we need to be selective in the stocks we choose.  There aren’t many producers to choose from, emerging producers are few and far between, and explorers with a combination of high-potential deposits and managerial know-how to drive development are even more rare.  But if you do find these stocks, huge gains are likely to be had.  And considering the carnage in this sector from the events earlier this year, it is currently a bargain-hunter’s paradise.
> 
> The bottom line is uranium’s bull market has so far exhibited a series of extreme highs and lows, with the highs taking this mineral on an uptrend that has delivered spectacular gains.  And while the recent tragic events at Fukushima have temporarily marred the nuclear industry, and thus uranium prices, nuclear power will still be a vital source of today’s and tomorrow’s energy needs.
> 
> As a result folks must not lose sight of uranium’s wildly-bullish fundamentals.  Even with the Fukushima effect, demand is expected to grow at a rapid pace.  And because supply from both the mining and stockpile fronts is expected to struggle to meet this demand, uranium prices should continue to rise.  Investors can play this imbalance by buying quality stocks that are currently out of favour.  Contrarian plays like this typically lead to huge gains._




Time only will tell who was right and who was wrong.


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> You'll soon see that it's "A very very very" good call though...:bananasmi



I appreciate your enthusiasm and time spent commenting on PEN. Seems your charting skills paint a very bearish picture for PEN.
I feel my T/A skills are average. However I would like to point out that the most leading indicator of a trend change that I have learnt from a master of T/A is OBV. So I am baffled as to why you have omitted this indicator from your charts
If you take a look at this indicator you will note the downtrend line touching the lower highs broke a few weeks back. 
Low point on chart is early/mid June and higher low in mid July. Trendline is gently heading  upwards.
You appear to have found negative indicators, I have found positive indicators........Check out which way OBV has been trending for last five years


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> I would like to point out that the most leading indicator of a trend change that I have learnt from a master of T/A is OBV.
> Check out which way OBV has been trending for last five years




Did your "master of T/A" point out that a rising trend is a series of higher peaks & higher troughs?

And that a lower trough is a sell signal?

Like the one given last week?

PS - Note OBV's current value - Three point two thousand million...Number ring a bell?


----------



## tech/a

OBV misses a very important component in it's calculation
Both Wykoff and Williams knew and know what it is.
To my knowledge an oscillator has never been designed around the missing components.


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Did your "master of T/A" point out that a rising trend is a series of higher peaks & higher troughs?
> 
> And that a lower trough is a sell signal?
> 
> Like the one given last week?
> 
> PS - Note OBV's current value - Three point two thousand million...Number ring a bell?



Daily OBV is which I am making reference to an uptrend. 
Your Monthly indicator paints a different picture. Would the Monthly be disrupted due to Fukushima?

tech/a..  I understand OBV should be used in conjunction with other indicators.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Daily OBV is which I am making reference to an uptrend.




The 'Big Picture' monthly OBV had been in a 5 year uptrend...until last week...

PEN's fully diluted shares will keep trending higher though!

Five hundred million five years ago - three point two thousand million now...

Maybe we will see a ten bagger soon...though not in the way many had hoped and dreamt publicly about...


----------



## tech/a

So as an indicator it's pretty useless.
In the case of PEN a trend change wasn't seen until the other day!
Using Monthly OBV
That's handy.

The accusation that you select analysis---any analysis---to support your view
Is warranted from what I see.

Personally you can dissect PEN fundamentally and Technically
But the bottom line is this stock is firmly stuck in a range and regardless what analysis you or anyone---try to make " Fit" it isn't going anywhere.


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> The 'Big Picture' monthly OBV had been in a 5 year uptrend...until last week...




So
I will safely assume you are not suggesting this to be a valid exit point. Clearly an attempt to sling mud at PEN to justify your argument.

My simplistic reasoning using daily OBV to validate a single indicator is: 
Check the downtrend line on lower highs last year, around mid year it broke.....good entry
Check the uptrend line on higher lows to early this year, broke before Fukushima.....good exit
Check the downtrend line on lower highs that recently broke.......good entry? Time will tell


Your use of monthly OBV to discredit PEN  has removed any confidence to myself that your contributions provide valid reasoning of a potential heavy downtrend  occuring. 


tech/a....Thank you for your efforts. I appreciate you view is PEN will range. I noted after the downtrend broke last year that the SP appeared to meander for some time before the strong uptrend took hold due to an increasing Spot Price of U.


----------



## tech/a

Karlos

Cause and effect.
We will all see it in time enough.
Just as we are seeing "it" ( cause and effect) now.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> So
> I will safely assume you are not suggesting this to be a valid exit point.
> My simplistic reasoning...




Never assume anything, (like the DFS being released 2 months ago lol). 

Why on earth would you choose a daily time frame over a 5 year period?

As much use as a one year hourly chart...:headshake


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> "As a result folks must not lose sight of uranium’s wildly-bullish fundamentals. Even with the Fukushima effect, demand is expected to grow at a rapid pace."





Folks must not lose sight of nuclear power's wildly rising costs...


*"Further delays and cost overruns at new generation nuclear plants being developed in Europe by French companies have also raised questions about the cost factor, particularly with the extra safety measures that would appear to be an inevitable consequence of the Fukushima incident. EDF said the new generation European pressurised reactor (EPR) at Flamanville, in north-western France, has been further delayed and is now expected to open in 2016 (rather than 2014), and its budget has now jumped out to â‚¬6 billion ($8 billion). It was originally to be built by 2012 at a cost of â‚¬3.3 billion.

Another French company, Areva, is experiencing similar problems at its EPR plant in Finland. EDF has blamed “structural and economic” problems, noting that a nuclear plant has not been built in France for 15 years. It’s a similar problem in the US, where even nuclear technology suppliers such as GE say it is impossible to estimate the cost of nuclear reactors because none have been built for more than two decades.

A plan unveiled in 2007 to build two nuclear plants in San Antonio using reactors provided by Toshiba was effectively abandoned three years later after the prospective cost ballooned from an estimated $US5.8 billion to $US22 billion. The Obama administration has said it would release $58 billion in loan guarantees to help a new fleet of nuclear reactors to be built, but there are questions about whether this would be anywhere near sufficient."*

Link

"rapid pace"...:crap:


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Never assume anything, (like the DFS being released 2 months ago lol).
> 
> Why on earth would you choose a daily time frame over a 5 year period?





So you wish to raise the issue of the DFS ChaleaI note a slight sarcastic giggle
I never assumed an imminent release. May I suggest you venture to a known stomping ground you have previously ruffled the feathers of.........namely Hot Copper. PEN thread has a "DFS release comp" currently running. Should you care to enter, you may find yours truely is a super hot favourite. However, due to new info, I do feel the DFS will now arrive at a sooner date

In regards to your comment on choosing the daily on 5 year OBV.......It was not a choice but merely an observation on the overall direction of PEN.

PS I have deep fears Chalea for your half glass empty approach to fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN. I hope my contributions provide as aspect of which you may have previously overseen. All the best and may God bless your soul.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> However, due to new info, I do feel the DFS will now arrive at a sooner date
> 
> In regards to your comment on choosing the daily on 5 year OBV.......It was not a choice but merely an observation on the overall direction of PEN.
> 
> PS I have deep fears Chalea for your half glass empty approach to fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN.





Please don't imply that you have "new info". Whatever it is is either a baseless rumour/ramp or illegal insider information. This site is far better than that!

I'll give you  "an observation on the overall direction of PEN."

Check the Monthly MACD. Tell me, as a God fearing PEN 'believer', do you think that the MACD line is about to cross down through it's signal line providing a very long term sell signal?

That's the second one in two nights... Has your "Master of T/A" pointed that one out?

May I also point out that long term support can be found on the lowest blue line @ 1c...

As mentioned previously, the only part of your "fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN" that is growing is the amount of it's full diluted shares...

*3,200,000,000*...:bad:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> *The hourly chart shows a bearish rectangle pattern.
> Approximate Target = 7.1 - ( 7.7 - 7.1 ) = 6.5c* corn:






*Well the bearish rectangle needed to test the moving average resistance before hitting 6.5c on the nose. 

Couple of days later than expected but at least it's not two months!

Tick, tick, tick...

Gap @ 7.0c should give the swing traders who buy in the low 6s something to aim at.*

corn:


----------



## tech/a

> Well the bearish rectangle needed to test the moving average resistance before hitting 6.5c on the nose




Remarkable.

Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle *pattern*?

OR

Are all of these ideas your theories or perhaps your adaptations of conventional technical analysis,which you are seeking recognition through forums.

Its been asked before but you avoided the question.

Do you actually trade??

I and others ask because for me discussing analysis with someone who hasnt advanced past theory is a waste of bandwidth---if---like you they are convinced they are actually using technical analysis.

If you can prove through evidence you do trade then happy to continue to discuss.
If not then I and Im sure others will place you on ignore.

In my opinion (and Im allowed an opinion just as you are---you keep showing it!) This analysis is plain rubbish.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Remarkable.
> 
> Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
> Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle *pattern*?
> 
> OR
> 
> Are all of these ideas your theories or perhaps your adaptations of conventional technical analysis,which you are seeking recognition through forums.
> 
> Its been asked before but you avoided the question.
> 
> Do you actually trade??
> 
> I and others ask because for me discussing analysis with someone who hasnt advanced past theory is a waste of bandwidth---if---like you they are convinced they are actually using technical analysis.
> 
> If you can prove through evidence you do trade then happy to continue to discuss.
> If not then I and Im sure others will place you on ignore.
> 
> In my opinion (and Im allowed an opinion just as you are---you keep showing it!) This analysis is plain rubbish.






I have nothing to prove or discuss with you!

Ciao...


----------



## tech/a

Ignore it is then.
Thanks.


----------



## againsthegrain

Could of picked any stock today and went see its in the red told you so, genius!


----------



## Chalea

againsthegrain said:


> Could of picked any stock today and went see its in the red told you so, genius!




Or you could have read my post on Sunday!

Thank you for the complement...

PS. Have you seen my bearish rising wedge target?


----------



## againsthegrain

Just saw some cut and paste from what looked like a cheap tutorial found on google


----------



## Chalea

againsthegrain said:


> Just saw some cut and paste from what looked like a cheap tutorial found on google




I don't attempt to blind readers with TA/FA mumbo jumbo...

KISS!!!


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Please don't imply that you have "new info". Whatever it is is either a baseless rumour/ramp or illegal insider information. This site is far better than that!




OK Senior Sargeant Chalea, before you lose your mind and unleash a few rounds of liquid from your water pistol at my forehead, how about place the piece back in your holster.

The "new info" is readily available for all to see on the recent announcement. It is in regard to the Nucore $15 Mill. The addition being "7.5 min to 9.5 cent max" plus 50% placement. Considering the SP has been trading in this region, I would therefore assume a sooner than later completion and arrival of the DFS. Hence the reason for an instinctive change of view.


Hmmmmmmm....So you wish to question my long term view. Sorry, I dont have time to lecture Officers of the Law.:

I do note the daily OBV is now touching the uptrend line. Shall be interesting to see if it bounces from this line.

I wont hold you up any longer Officer Chalea, as I expect the mean streets of ASF await some justice to be served


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> The "new info" is readily available for all to see on the recent announcement. It is in regard to the Nucore $15 Mill. The addition being "7.5 min to 9.5 cent max" plus 50% placement. Considering the SP has been trading in this region, I would therefore assume a sooner than later completion and arrival of the DFS. Hence the reason for an instinctive change of view.




I alluded to this on the weekend.

Could you tell me if the NuCore due diligence has a 'poor market conditions' get out clause?

'Poor market conditions' = PEN's SP and uranium both falling in value.

Why else would BHP be delaying Olympic Dam and Areva be saying €700 million ($1.0 billion) in orders "present a risk of cancellation or renegotiation"?


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Could you tell me if the NuCore due diligence has a 'poor market conditions' get out clause?




Due to some very new recent information I have just viewed from the boss, I understand that the answer  is "No, they are in for the long haul". I hope this assists with your investigation Officer Chalea


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Chalea said:


> Did your "master of T/A" point out that a rising trend is a series of higher peaks & higher troughs?
> 
> And that a lower trough is a sell signal?
> 
> Like the one given last week?
> 
> PS - Note OBV's current value - Three point two thousand million...Number ring a bell?





The following is a quote from an ATAA article I have stored in my portmanteau. It is not for your information Chalea, rather for the uninitiated who may be beguiled by your cut and paste approach to Technical Analysis of stocks.

Indicators Are Not Systems
Chuck LeBeau
One of the popular topics often discussed on trading forums and web sites is the relative value of various technical indicators. For example someone might ask: "Which is better, MACD or Bollinger Bands?" Or simply: "Which is more profitable: ADX or CCI?"
The implication of these questions is that indicators are being confused with trading systems. It is important to understand that technical indicators are best thought of as being merely small parts of a system and not systems in and of themselves. A typical comment like: "I tried Indicator X and found it was worthless." makes no sense at all. Or, "I tried ADX and found that it was excellent." These statements imply that an indicator was tested as though it were a system.
Rather than saying a specific indicator is good or bad, we should hold the view that indicators are tools for solving specific trading related problems. For example, one indicator may be an excellent way to solve a particular problem, but the same indicator can be of no value in solving a different problem. The value of any indicator depends on its application. As system developers we must avoid sweeping judgmental evaluations that might conclude that indicator A is better than indicator B. Our task is to learn which indicators can best solve particular problems, and make certain that we apply whatever indicator is appropriate for the task at hand.
Every indicator has its strengths and weaknesses depending on how it is applied. For example, we have found that moving averages are poor entry triggers but excellent directional indicators. The fact that the five-day moving average is above the twenty day moving average may be a reliable indication that the trend is up, but it doesn't mean that we want to buy immediately. On the other hand an upward range expansion might be an excellent entry trigger, but have no value in telling us the direction of the underlying trend. If we combine these indicators so that we go long in a market where the five-day moving average is above the twenty-day moving average immediately upon an upward range expansion, then we are getting into the construction of a viable system. However if we bought or sold every range expansion or 5/20 moving average crossover we would quickly conclude that these indicators had no value.







tech/a said:


> Remarkable.
> 
> Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
> Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle *pattern*?
> 
> OR
> 
> Are all of these ideas your theories or perhaps your adaptations of conventional technical analysis,which you are seeking recognition through forums.
> 
> Its been asked before but you avoided the question.
> 
> Do you actually trade??
> 
> I and others ask because for me discussing analysis with someone who hasnt advanced past theory is a waste of bandwidth---if---like you they are convinced they are actually using technical analysis.
> 
> If you can prove through evidence you do trade then happy to continue to discuss.
> If not then I and Im sure others will place you on ignore.
> 
> In my opinion (and Im allowed an opinion just as you are---you keep showing it!) This analysis is plain rubbish.




A moot point. Price trends, indicators INDICATE. And a rectangle is a rectangle. Simple.



Chalea said:


> I have nothing to prove or discuss with you!
> 
> Ciao...




Agree, Chalea, you resemble a midget unable to reach the top shelf, but well able to jump halfway.
Apologies to any midgets reading this, particularly those with a knowledge of Technical Analysis.

PEN is down, and looks down, and I and my portfolio are glad we follow ASF and not ColdCrims.com
They all now blame a guy called Gus, in Peninsula Energy, who last week they said could walk on water. Sic transit gloria peninsulae.

Such is life.


gg


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Due to some very new recent information I have just viewed from the boss, I understand that the answer  is "No, they are in for the long haul".




Are you an employee of PEN?

How can NuCore be 'in' if they haven't handed over the $15m?


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Are you an employee of PEN?
> 
> How can NuCore be 'in' if they haven't handed over the $15m?




I am not an employee of PEN. I hail from the good city of Hamilton in NZ. Home of the Aussie V8 Supercars round

Go visit Hot Copper Chalea, I urge you. Cheap Charlie has just received an email from Gus regarding the concerns of some frail holders of PEN in relation to the worry you have also raised.


----------



## tech/a

GG



> A moot point. Price trends, indicators INDICATE. And a rectangle is a rectangle. Simple.




I disagree my statement hasn't been debated so is hardly moot.



> Could you explain for the un initiated how an M/A provides resistance?
> Also why a few bars with the same high and low can be seen as a rectangle pattern?




Price trends due to imbalance in supply or demand over a prolonged period.

Indicators do indicate but an M/A isn't an indicator. Its an average of a data set.

While a rectangle maybe a rectangle its use in technical analysis is identification of a prolonged support and resistance zone which has been honored by price---indicating an area of congestion.

The high and low of a few bars at the same price hardly qualifies for an area of congestion let alone prolonged congestion.

As a Chartist and Technical analyst who has completed 10000 hrs many times over it pains me to see such rubbish being offered up as serious analysis. I use it in discretionary trading and have proven that systems trading can be very profitable--- with Tech Trader running live for 7 yrs. and still available for public view.

I spend a great deal of time on this forum demonstrating serious analysis and help to those who wish to become serious students of what I believe to be an ART.
A very profitable one to those who look past the 90% you dont need to know!

Rubbish cheapens the practice and if I see rubbish I will challenge it.
As Far as PEN is concerned the Analysis is pretty rudimentary and not likely to change in the shorter term.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Go visit Hot Copper Chalea, I urge you. Cheap Charlie has just received an email from Gus regarding the concerns of some frail holders of PEN in relation to the worry you have also raised.





I urge you to DYOR and not accept anything that is spruiked on HotCopper.

I urge you to contact HotCopper's administration to compare the content and IP addresses of these three posts -

'cheapcharlie', (last year), to the suspended 'saylor' and the suspended 'budgiesmuggler'.


If, (and it's yet to be proved/disproved), it's the same poster, are you still confident in the veracity of the email?

Check my signature...


----------



## Joe Blow

I do not wish to see anything that is posted on HotCopper reproduced on ASF, and this includes paraphrasing anything that is posted there.

Nor do I wish to see links to, or any further discussion of, HotCopper. What happens over there, stays over there.

Now, back on topic.


----------



## explod

tech/a said:


> GG
> 
> I spend a great deal of time on this forum demonstrating serious analysis and help to those who wish to become serious students of what I believe to be an ART.
> A very profitable one to those who look past the 90% you dont need to know!
> 
> Rubbish cheapens the practice and if I see rubbish I will challenge it.
> As Far as PEN is concerned the Analysis is pretty rudimentary and not likely to change in the shorter term.




A good post tech.  Many of us codgers do not say much but as a fairly long standing member of ASF I would like at this point to say how much your efforts are appreciated.  You are one of those that makes ASF the good communiy it is.

I do have a good idea of t/a and urge posters to read back over Tech's work if you are new to this field.  This approach to investing is essential learning if you are serious about gaining a good financial education.

Explod


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> The green chart lines give an approximate SP target of 5c






Here is an alternate method to measuring the bearish rising wedge's target for those unconvinced by my simple method -

Measure from the lowest trough, (5.9), to the highest peak, (8.3)

The targeted move is 8.3 - 5.9 = 2.4c

The move is projected down from the breakout point at 7.6c, (28/07/11).

The target is calculated by subtracting the move from the value at the point of breakout:

Target = (7.6 - 2.4) = 5.2c

Link


----------



## axelord

Have we hit the bottom yet..? this 'DOG' has got me again...! If it will bounce.. to what price level?


----------



## Chalea

axelord said:


> Have we hit the bottom yet..? this 'DOG' has got me again...! If it will bounce.. to what price level?





My commiserations...

Chart shows failure of support.

If you equate bottom to target, (5.2c), I don't believe the bottom has been hit.

The market has a knack of filling gaps. Note last October's gap @ 4.0c

Regarding the bounce, keep an eye on the moving average line


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Subsequent analysis leads me to believe that if that support were to fail then a measured move would see a target @ around 3.5c




Weekly chart's Slow Stochastic falling through it's center line confirms the longer term bearish signal provided last week.

The green lines enclose the SP in a Continuation Rectangle -

"Target: The estimated move is found by measuring the height of the rectangle and applying it to the breakout."

Price is now tracking the lower Bollinger Band -

"A trend that hugs one band signals that the trend is strong and likely to continue."

The approximate target, 3.5c, is a historic congestion area/area of support from a year ago and lies just beneath the daily chart's gap @ 4.0c.


----------



## barney

Chalea said:


> *The approximate target, 3.5c*, is a historic congestion area/area of support from a year ago and lies just beneath the daily chart's gap @ 4.0c.





Cha, 

Anything is possible I guess  .....  

Unless the Company falls over, ....  3.5 cents would represent a substantial (I repeat, *substantial*) discount to what PEN's relative potential earnings value could be over the next few years ..... Even with its current "Spec" status, 3.5c would be about half its current conservative value.

However,  PEN will soon be able to be valued based on economic fundamentals; unlike most Spec plays, which are valued on how well the "story" can be embelished ....(ps. I also generally prefer to use squiggly lines ...... but only to help me with entries and exits )

Granted, the U story is not the flavour of the month at present .......... opportunity perhaps??

Out of curiousity ....If you get the chance,  *will you be a buyer at 3.5 cents *........ I certainly will be!

Cheers.


----------



## Chalea

barney said:


> Cha,
> 
> Out of curiousity ....If you get the chance,  *will you be a buyer at 3.5 cents *........ I certainly will be!
> 
> Cheers.




barney,

Out of curiousity ....Did you see this post? (2nd-August-2011 11:31 PM)

Cheers.



Chalea said:


> Check the Monthly MACD...do you think that the MACD line is about to cross down through it's signal line providing a very long term sell signal?
> 
> May I also point out that long term support can be found on the lowest blue line @ 1c...


----------



## barney

Chalea said:


> barney,
> 
> Out of curiousity ....Did you see this post? (2nd-August-2011 11:31 PM)
> 
> Cheers.





I did, but that is 5 days ago ...... I'm no elephant!




Chalea said:


> May I also point out that long term support can be found on the lowest blue line @ 1c...
> 
> As mentioned previously, the only part of your "fundamently sound growth stocks such as PEN" that is growing is the amount of* it's full diluted s*hares...
> 
> *3,200,000,000*...:bad:





The amount of shares on issue is only part of the equation.  Current SP of around 6 cents gives PEN a market cap of approx $120 million .....At 3.5 cps, their market cap would be approx $70 million. 


The weak USD and poor world economics are the biggest short term issues for any sp appreciation, but if PEN succeeds in becoming future producer,  a $70 million market cap would look pretty good value compared to its peers ..... 

ERA market cap of approx $700 million ..... 
PDN market cap of around $1.7 billion ............. 

I'm not disagreeing that the short term sentiment on U stocks is a bit average, but there are a lot of other Companies with more concerns than PEN.

A lot of water to go under the bridge with this story .... and the final outcome won't be known for a while yet ...... each person has to trade/invest as they see fit.

At 3.5 cents ........... As Oliver Twist said ....... Please Sir, can I have some more

Cheers.


----------



## Chalea

barney said:


> ...but if PEN succeeds in becoming future producer.....
> ERA  ..... PDN  .............





I'll say it again...

Production = SP stagnation/collapse...

Production of uranium? 

Chernobyl was a walk in the park...Fukushima broke the camel's back, legs and will to live...


----------



## barney

Chalea said:


> I'll say it again...
> 
> Production = SP stagnation/collapse...




Although that often appears the case, I think it is a generalisation which is influenced by market "trend bias".

Companies that tank post production have generally risen exponentially in unison with a bullish general market sentiment ..........

Obviously the market will promote/over-extend the "in vogue" sectors when the mood is bullish .... 

The real test is to find a Company that outperforms the general market trend ... Until last week, as an example, Iluka (ILU) filled that profile.

When you compare your charts of ERA and PDN, you would much prefer to be on PEN on a relative basis ............. in general however, you would prefer to be on none of them 

Using your scenario, it should be noted that PEN is still PRE- production, and is therefore potentially subject to "sentiment swings" with its share price ............ If in fact the PEN SP manages to turn around in the current market climate; that would be a very bullish signal for the short/medium term ............... (ditto for the opposite scenario as well) ................ difficult market all round at present .... PEN is no different to most stocks, struggling for support.


----------



## Chalea

barney said:


> PEN is still PRE- production, and is therefore potentially subject to "sentiment swings" with its share price ............




PEN is an over-hyped penny-dreadful proxy for uranium - spot the difference in the charts.

The only "sentiment swings" will be from day-traders!

Don't blink...


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> 4th-August-2011 10:42 PM... the bearish rising wedge's target...Target = (7.6 - 2.4) = 5.2c




Time to update the short term hourly chart...

Price fell through & closed below the continuation rectangle support line @ 5.7c

Short term target = 5.7 - (6.0 - 5.7) = 5.4c


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Short term target = 5.7 - (6.0 - 5.7) = 5.4c




Some large volume and sweet looking candle today

Capitulation? Im picking the smart money knows best


----------



## hangseng

I sat back watch the carnage, made a coffee then proceeded to buy PEN at .05. I was surprised to see the support rally back in so soon, however I had my fill and happy.

Had buys in for other stocks as well that were way oversold as PEN was but missed them all. SSN was a great one waiting at .087/.088 but jumped back very quickly. I was simply too slow.

Whilst some gloat over their charts in an attempt to invoke fear, some actually do something proactive about *opportunity*. 

Should try it sometime...quite invigorating


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

hangseng said:


> No chart, just baseless rhetoric as usual.
> 
> Perhaps the charting geniuses here can please explain how PEN will go to 5c, when even the biggest media fear driven frenzied selloff post Fukushima couldn't get it below 5.6 and even then it bounced hard, albeit falling back to 5.9 (higher low) before now going again today to 7.8.
> 
> ...
> 
> 5c???
> I will place my neck firmly on the chopping block.... *You are wrong, very very wrong! and GG will win the tipping for July*
> 
> None of which will stop the crap posted here of late I am sure. Regardless my 6.1 buy on the 16/6 just looks better every day, and will look much better again in the next few months...IMO of course....



Based on the immediate dismissive attitude to any EW posts in multiple threads, I saw no point in posting a chart based on my OWN EW research. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe I saw a low of 4.9c today. Unfortunately, while there was a bump in the right direction after this low, I'm still very cautious of the whole market and any further price targets.

Sorry Joe (Blow), but sometimes the one-eyed, overwhelming-positive attitude of some shareholders borders on stock spruiking.

If PEN was so brutally dumped after Fukishima, I saw no reason that the same thing wouldn't happen once the US defaulted, triggering "GFC II"... well so I thought. They obviously didn't but the downgrade has had the same effect.

I will be keeping my mouth shut from now on, with regards to any price targets for any stock.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> ...Whilst some gloat over their charts in an attempt to invoke fear...




I have never gloated!

'in an attempt to invoke *FACT*' is more appropriate!
And you wonder why I post...:shake:

What were you attempting to invoke when you were calling 20c+ when the SP was 15c?

Yes, those were the days my friend you thought they'd never end...

What was today's low?

4.9c?

My next chart is "imminent"...


----------



## hangseng

Point taken zzaaxxss3401 and I consider myself chastised...in part.

However not one of the chartists predicted the panic driven current events. All views were purely technical, of which by the way in the main I respect here, as mine were fundamental.

Had any of them stated that PEN would go to 4.9 based on .......... (US govt idiocy etc), I would have had more respect in my posting.

All that aside my fundamental views of PEN has not changed. THE single factor that will eventually drive PEN, not the charts. t isn't any of my concern that others choose to take no notice nor have any understanding of PEN's fundamentals, however I base my views directly on them. 

Your comments are unwarranted and do this normally quality forum no justice. As I at times get calls wrong, so do you and the many others here, so to come on preaching a higher than mighty view is quite simply aberrant. I have been here many times before and your view means little to me.

You like a few others seemingly have a difficulty with positive thinking people and just love to sink the boot in at every chance. To you et al this is disaster...to me it was simply an opportunity, one I will continue to take should opportunity arise again.


See you at the other end eh...love to have another chat in 12 months time and we will see who was right and who was wrong  In 1-2 years I believe I know who will be having the last laugh 

So dig away, I care not!


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> However not one of the chartists predicted the panic driven current events. All views were purely technical, of which by the way in the main I respect here, as mine were fundamental........Had any of them stated that PEN would go to 4.9 based on .......... (US govt idiocy etc), I would have had more respect in my posting.




With respect, PEN's collapse had nothing to do with the overall market.

All penny-dreadful parabolic pump & dumps finish up where they started.

Some more "imminently" than others...corn:


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> With respect, PEN's collapse had nothing to do with the overall market.




Oh really?

So the SPI's lunch and arvo rally had no effect on PEN?


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

hangseng said:


> See you at the other end eh...love to have another chat in 12 months time and we will see who was right and who was wrong  In 1-2 years I believe I know who will be having the last laugh
> 
> So dig away, I care not!



Clearly you do care, otherwise you would not have responded.

However... at what point have I said PEN is a useless stock? I simply stated a target price, for which I was anticipating a re-entry. I have held in the past and continue to watch at this stage, along with a number of other stocks. If the share price stays above 3c, then the Options are what I would be buying. If it falls below 3c, then the Shares are the better option. I may even hedge my bets if it settles around 3c. I am very concerned about the EU's debt, the US's debt and the possibility that China may slow it's economy, affecting us. Has it been oversold - probably, like a lot of stocks, but is there still more selling to come... who knows. 

As a side-note I have a lot of interest in Thorium as an alternative nuclear fuel... but that's another topic. DYOR.


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> Oh really? So the SPI's lunch and arvo rally had no effect on PEN?




Allow me to remind you that PEN started it's collapse from a peak of 15.5c.

Don't mistake a swing trader inspired gap fill as anything significant.

The same thing happened after Fukushima...

The sooner PEN fills the gap @ 4.0c the better for everyone!


----------



## nomore4s

Chalea said:


> The sooner PEN fills the gap @ 4.0c the better for everyone!




You can't seriously be basing any sort of analysis on a very very minor gap that is nearly 12 months old. The market has well and truly forgotten about that imo, if it does get filled it is purely a coincidence.

The gap at 6c is the more significant gap (and recent) I would be looking to be filled. Depending on market conditions over the next few weeks a rally back towards 8c wouldn't surprise me.


----------



## Chalea

nomore4s said:


> You can't seriously be basing any sort of analysis on a very very minor gap that is nearly 12 months old. The market has well and truly forgotten about that imo, if it does get filled it is purely a coincidence.
> 
> The gap at 6c is the more significant gap (and recent) I would be looking to be filled. Depending on market conditions over the next few weeks a rally back towards 8c wouldn't surprise me.




I was under the impression that unsubstantiated SP targets were classified as ramps/down-ramps.

I first called 3.5c three weeks ago and believe that it's imminent...

Bearish descending triangle pattern formed on the hourly today.

Break-down gap filling target = 6.0 - (6.4 - 6.0) = 5.6c


----------



## skc

Chalea said:


> I was under the impression that unsubstantiated SP targets were classified as ramps/down-ramps.
> 
> I first called 3.5c three weeks ago and believe that it's imminent...
> 
> Bearish descending triangle pattern formed on the hourly today.
> 
> Break-down gap filling target = 6.0 - (6.4 - 6.0) = 5.6c




If you must call that a triangle it is more like a flag. Upside target is 7.5c based on the length of the last leg up.

Continuation flag target = 6.0 + (6.4-4.9) = 7.5c

It also marries up with the monthly pivot and right back in the consolidation zone... waiting for that much delayed DFS.


----------



## Chalea

skc said:


> ...it is more like a flag.




If you insist...

Like this one?

corn:


----------



## skc

Chalea said:


> If you insist...
> 
> Like this one?
> 
> corn:




I don't insist. The flag is the flag. It's a continuation pattern. It doesn't have a 100% chance of continuation however. As I am sure neither is a bearish decending triangle.

BTW great example comparing an hourly flag over a single session to a 2 week fall off after a nuclear meltdown.


----------



## sammy84

Curtis Arnold's PPS system requires that for a continuation pattern to be present 18day ma needs to be positive and 40 day ma flat or positive. Doesn't seem this way on the intraday or on the daily.

There is no clear pattern here IMHO. It never ceases to amaze me the attention this stocks get, So many better charts out there.


----------



## Chalea

skc said:


> BTW great example comparing an hourly flag over a single session to a 2 week fall off after a nuclear meltdown.




Thank you. A pattern is a pattern, regardless of time frame.

Being an hourly chart we'll see the outcome sooner rather than later.

Still think it's bullish???


----------



## Chalea

sammy84 said:


> Curtis Arnold's PPS system requires that for a continuation pattern to be present 18day ma needs to be positive and 40 day ma flat or positive. Doesn't seem this way on the intraday or on the daily.




I'm sure Curtis would know not to bother with daily moving averages on an hourly chart...:nono:

What about a reversal pattern?
You know, the descending triangle?



> There is no clear pattern here




I drew it, look for the two blue lines...



> IMHO. It never ceases to amaze me the attention this stocks get, So many better charts out there.




Don't forget the DFS, it's "imminent"!


----------



## Chalea

skc said:


> it is more like a flag. Upside target is 7.5c based on the length of the last leg up.
> 
> 
> 
> Continuation flag target = 6.0 + (6.4-4.9) = 7.5c
> 
> 
> 
> It also marries up with the monthly pivot and right back in the consolidation zone... waiting for that much delayed DFS.





Yes the monthly is interesting.

While we all wait the monthly chart shows long term bearish divergences between price and MACD/RSI.

Long termers should take note of the volume in March accompanying this bearish signal. Hardly a sign of confidence...

Yet to be confirmed sell signals can be seen with the bearish MACD cross-over and RSI center-line break.

These long term sell signals are not "imminent", 1-9-11, (according to my definition of the word anyway...:shake


Click chart


----------



## redzebra

Chalea 

I think its plain as day for everyone who has been around for more than 5 minutes, that you have formed a very negative view on PEN and are simply trying to provide charts that are tailored to support that theory. 

I'll give you an example of when you were on the other side of the fence - when you were a big holder of CVI - top 10 or top 20? You posted chart after chart which again, merely supported that already formed view, with a bit of "FA" thrown in for good measure "the next Oxiana" etc etc. I think with hindsight you will admit that those charts and predictions were all wrong in the end. 

Why you have picked PEN to vent on I have no idea, but if its that hopeless excuse for a company (CVI) that has made you so bitter then I sympathise.




Chalea said:


> Yes the monthly is interesting.
> 
> While we all wait the monthly chart shows long term bearish divergences between price and MACD/RSI.
> 
> Long termers should take note of the volume in March accompanying this bearish signal. Hardly a sign of confidence...
> 
> Yet to be confirmed sell signals can be seen with the bearish MACD cross-over and RSI center-line break.
> 
> These long term sell signals are not "imminent", 1-9-11, (according to my definition of the word anyway...:shake
> 
> 
> Click chart
> View attachment 43969


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Yes the monthly is interesting.
> 
> While we all wait the monthly chart shows long term bearish divergences between price and MACD/RSI.
> 
> Long termers should take note of the volume in March accompanying this bearish signal. Hardly a sign of confidence...
> 
> Yet to be confirmed sell signals can be seen with the bearish MACD cross-over and RSI center-line break.
> 
> These long term sell signals are not "imminent", 1-9-11, (according to my definition of the word anyway...:shake




If my understanding on the information you have provided is correct, you are suggesting a sell signal is imminent.
My simple strategy of selling on a break of the daily OBV had provided an exit signal in the double digits.

Allow another observation on my part.(I dont draw lines on charts, I simply lay a ruler on the computer screen to watch trendlines)
Bring up the 5 year Share Price chart on PEN:
Line A-Touch highs of June 08 and July 11
Line B-Touch highs of June 08, Oct 09 and July11
Line C-Touch lows of March 09 and July 10
All run parallel.
Line A is a result of run on SP of Uranium. To get back to this line, I believe requires U to run or near term production/profit. Also if you look at 5 yr DAILY OBV trending upwards, has a surge about once a year which could provide a surge on Share Price to Line A with positive market sentiment.
Between lines B & C appear to be a trading range. Line C tells me the SP would not fall below mid 4 cents in the near future. 
Hence I believe the current environment is an excellent time to be buying PEN


----------



## Chalea

redzebra said:


> Chalea
> 
> I think its plain as day for everyone who has been around for more than 5 minutes, that you have formed a very negative view on PEN and are simply trying to provide charts that are tailored to support that theory.
> 
> I'll give you an example of when you were on the other side of the fence - when you were a big holder of CVI - top 10 or top 20? You posted chart after chart which again, merely supported that already formed view, with a bit of "FA" thrown in for good measure "the next Oxiana" etc etc. I think with hindsight you will admit that those charts and predictions were all wrong in the end.
> 
> Why you have picked PEN to vent on I have no idea, but if its that hopeless excuse for a company (CVI) that has made you so bitter then I sympathise.





You obviously missed the deleted tÃªte-Ã -tÃªte...

Charts have been spot on so don't complain.

There's nothing worse than an ex smoker - know what I mean?


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Hence I believe the current environment is an excellent time to be buying PEN





So Fukushima didn't happen, Japan/Germany etc aren't dumping nuclear power, the DFS was released on time and uranium/PEN are trending higher?

Reality bites...


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> So Fukushima didn't happen, Japan/Germany etc aren't dumping nuclear power, the DFS was released on time and uranium/PEN are trending higher?
> 
> Reality bites...




1/ Shares go up, shares go down. PEN was downtrending before Fukushima, remove the following weeks price action and you would not be aware of the anomaly due to the disaster in the charts.

2/ Japan/Germany closing reactors ..... Arabs, Chinese, Indians etc etc building many more

3/ DFS- PEN announcements have (to my knowledge) always been outstanding. Why should this be any different. Since it has not been ready for release I would therefore assume it is for good reason/s.

4/ Trending higher....I have no reason to believe an uptrend is in place. I am pointing out my logic for a buying opportunity.

PS Sleep well Chalea, another day in paradise is upon us tomorrow


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> 1/ Shares go up, shares go down. PEN was downtrending before Fukushima, remove the following weeks price action and you would not be aware of the anomaly due to the disaster in the charts.




I wouldn't call a break of support a downtrend...



> 4/ Trending higher....I have no reason to believe an uptrend is in place. I am pointing out my logic for a buying opportunity.




On 1/8/11 you stated "I have found positive indicators" when the SP was >7c.
Now it's a "buying opportunity" yet the SP is 20% lower.

Dismiss my target all you like, but PEN/uranium's a falling knife....


----------



## isplicer

Chalea, not baiting or anything, but taking into account your technical indicators and your fundamental view on Uranium, PEN and this crisis going on, would you say that 3.5c would be a suitable buying price? Or is there a strong resistance level above that level that looks unlikely to be broken even in spite of this financial bloodbath?


----------



## Chalea

isplicer said:


> Chalea, not baiting or anything, but taking into account your technical indicators and your fundamental view on Uranium, PEN and this crisis going on, would you say that 3.5c would be a suitable buying price? Or is there a strong resistance level above that level that looks unlikely to be broken even in spite of this financial bloodbath?




3.5 - 4.0c appears to offer a fairly solid level of support on the yearly chart, (a gap fill @ 4.0c may satisfy the market). 
Nothing would stand in it's way if the SP closed below 5c.

Whatever level it does make a meaningful turn will have more to do with the rising price of uranium than anything else.

Everyone's different. One may think 5c is a gift while another may need to see a close above 15.5c before buying...

IMO, DYOR


----------



## againsthegrain

2 days ago the support at 5c proved to be very strong. I had a buy order at 4.9 which did not come close to getting filled and I am one of many. I very much doubt it will come close to that price again. Looking back at 5c it was a very good bargain which I should of have pursued closer, but I snapped up other opportunities.

You sound very bitter chelsea, instead posting rubbish you should have bought back in and stfu. The more you post the more you sound like a desperate madman IMHO


----------



## Chalea

againsthegrain said:


> 2 days ago the support at 5c proved to be very strong. I had a buy order at 4.9 which did not come close to getting filled and I am one of many. I very much doubt it will come close to that price again. Looking back at 5c it was a very good bargain which I should of have pursued closer, but I snapped up other opportunities.
> 
> You sound very bitter chelsea, instead posting rubbish you should have bought back in and stfu. The more you post the more you sound like a desperate madman IMHO





If you mistake my deadly accurate charting and erudite reality based views of PEN/uranium for rubbish then I would have to seriously question your judgement.

Especially your charting/stock picking judgement...

"5c proved to be very strong" - LOL, the SP hit 4.9c!

Good luck with your 'investment'. Hope you didn't base it on the 80c fantasy valuation posted here a fortnight ago!


----------



## tech/a

*PEN Tech's technical update*.

*Click to expand*

*


*


----------



## againsthegrain

> "5c proved to be very strong" - LOL, the SP hit 4.9c!




Hit it so hard that my order never got filled


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> *PEN Tech's technical update*.






How can you possibly state that that the worst is over for PEN? Based on what? Your subjective use of EWT?

It was only a matter of days ago that you and others were calling "double bottom" and that PEN "was likely to range for a very long time" LOL

FYI your 6c support is now resistance...

Click


----------



## nomore4s

Chalea, you are walking a very fine line here. Your responses to other peoples posts are beginning to get tiresome and are bordering on rude.

How about toning it down a bit and showing other people some respect even if they have differing views to yourself.

There will be no more warnings for anyone on this thread as it has a history of being a bit of a problem child.


----------



## nomore4s

nomore4s said:


> Chalea, you are walking a very fine line here. Your responses to other peoples posts are beginning to get tiresome and are bordering on rude.
> 
> How about toning it down a bit and showing other people some respect even if they have differing views to yourself.
> 
> There will be no more warnings for anyone on this thread as it has a history of being a bit of a problem child.




This is not up for debate.

I have deleted the last few posts as it discussed my post and not PEN. Lets all get back on the topic of PEN.


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> How can you possibly state that that the worst is over for PEN? Based on what? Your subjective use of EWT?




Prob on the massive reversal on Equities in general.



> It was only a matter of days ago that you and others were calling "double bottom" and that PEN "was likely to range for a very long time" LOL




And it was a pretty good call. 30% off the dbl bottom lows. More from the oppies. Some people actually trade their calls.

Whats the chart supposed to show? Don't see anything between this and tech's orig chart


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

skyQuake said:


> Prob on the massive reversal on Equities in general.
> 
> 
> 
> And it was a pretty good call. 30% off the dbl bottom lows. More from the oppies. Some people actually trade their calls.
> 
> Whats the chart supposed to show? Don't see anything between this and tech's orig chart




Agree sQ.

I have been buying and selling PENOC all month.

They are like a bride's nightie.

I use another website (coldcrims) postings as a weather vane for buying and selling. If they say sell I buy and if they say buy I sell. It's a range trade atm. technically.

gg


----------



## tech/a

I see the fuss on Skyquake 's post

All analysis is valid until it fails
When it does the analyst looks at further analysis to support price action going forward.

That's why good traders have stop losses in place.

All analysis can do is supply an entry and exit setup.
The skill of the trader will determine performance.

*PEN*
Always has alternate analysis possibilities even a fall to 2 c.
Highly unlikely but nothing in trading is impossible.
If you live long enough you'll see many impossible outliers.
I still expect this to range to 8c now as this is strong resistance.
The current low is also likely to be tested.
If anyone is going to trade it then place a stop and a sell at the obvious and there you have it.

Trading isn't that hard.


----------



## notting

I'd be happy to take a shot at tech/A trade probability any day.

I diverge:
Just letting you know that when I said 'bitch is always right' I was referring to the market, not any person.  I'm actually pretty much in awe!!
I'd really hate for that to have been missunderstood. Also, it's not sexists it's just that I'm male, hetro and have been screwed by here alot!  So I know she's a girl.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> *PEN* Always has alternate analysis possibilities even a fall to 2c.





Longer term bearish continuation rectangle support @ 5.9c failed this week and now acts as resistance.

*Target = 5.9 - (8.3 - 5.9) = 3.5c*


Click


----------



## notting

It's a chart off!
Maybe the direction of the ASX  will provide for an unfair ajudication.
Thanks for the lesson! I am a teachers nightmair!
Her der!


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Longer term...




Long term Coppock Indicator appears to have peaked...

Click


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Chalea,

You remind me of a mate who takes motors apart, only he cannot put them back together again.

Every time he comes to a problem, he stops, and goes out and buys another shifter or spanner.

Throwing a Coppock in a PEN thread is not just overkill, it is indecent. 

gg


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> Long term Coppock Indicator appears to have peaked...
> 
> Click
> View attachment 44045




I think you've made your opinion quite clear Chalea. All this extra t/a is getting a little unnecessary. 

I'm interested to see how Gus plays his next move, he's been very quiet recently. In the meantime I hope PEN holds 5.9c


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> ...I'm interested to see how Gus plays his next move, he's been very quiet recently.




I agree. Have read elsewhere he's been in the USA and Europe seeking funding for Karoo?

Speaking of Karoo, were you aware that "South Africa mine nationalization (is) ‘closest since end of apartheid’"

"Businessweek quotes a confidential report prepared for South Africa’s mining CEOs as saying South Africa’s ruling party is closer to some form of nationalization than at any other time since the end of apartheid. A government takeover of mines could choke investments in a country with metal and mineral reserves estimated at 2.5 trillion and lead to a collapse of the currency, the rand.

Firebrand Julius Malema (pictured), the leader of the youth wing of the ruling African National Congress which often acts as kingmaker in the country’s politics, is spearheading the campaign to seize mines, farms and banks."


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Longer term bearish continuation rectangle support @ 5.9c failed this week and now acts as resistance.
> 
> *Target = 5.9 - (8.3 - 5.9) = 3.5c*





Looks like the bearish rising wedge on the shorter term daily chart has broken out in the expected direction.

"The target for a reversal pattern is calculated from the highest peak to the lowest trough in the wedge pattern. The objective is calculated by projecting the target up/down from the breakout point."

Link

Measured target = approximately 4.4c

Click


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Chalea,
> 
> You remind me of a mate who takes motors apart, only he cannot put them back together again.
> 
> Every time he comes to a problem, he stops, and goes out and buys another shifter or spanner.
> 
> Throwing a Coppock in a PEN thread is not just overkill, it is indecent.
> 
> gg




LOL

Amidst all the guff out comes a pearler! 

So where are we heading? Technically I have no bloody idea at the moment...actually throw in a little fundamentally "I have no bloody idea at the moment" and it is pretty close to the mark from me.

That said all I can but do is focus on what may be an past thoughts come to mind. 

Many have forgotten, or possibly never knew, PEN has in place and "Application to Toll" and significant funds set aside for "aquisition/s". Also that Uranium One Inc. still has no export license in place that the new Russian owners ARMZ would be wanting in place...Will they divest this asset or push ahead regardless selling to US utilities? That is a question I am following very closely as it would be a game changer if what I and others are thinking offline actually occurs. Anyone hazard a guess as to what we are thinking may happen, or at least has a high probability and is definitely feasible (dare I use that word).

For now, I watch PEN get a right royal flogging once again and wait on the sidelines with a wad of cash at the ready.

So if some inciteful TA chap/gal would be so kind as to inform me of what lowly state PEN is going to hit I will set my alerts to be at the ready. Are we going to bounce of this area of the Fukashima lows...or will new, shall we say for want of a name, _"ASF Coppock"_ lows be created?

Free party pie (with sauce) and a coke (cherry of course) for the Buffet who picks the new low.

No TA (apart from the bounce on the 9/8 on 30m volume), I will just throw in a guess as I don't like Cherry coke anyway so don't mind if I lose. I will run with a test of 5.5/5.6 then away we go to 8.5 for another test.

Any takers?


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Any takers?




Could someone inform hangseng of my now 3+ week old target of 3.5c, (cebbie?)...

Regarding uranium -

Fukushima low recently taken out, $50 to fall _"imminently"_ going by the bearish MACD signal line cross confirmed by the bearish RSI center line cross...corn:

Click


----------



## skc

hangseng said:


> For now, I watch PEN get a right royal flogging once again and wait on the sidelines with a wad of cash at the ready.




Are you saying you've sold and watching from the sideline? Or have I mis-interpreted what you meant by sideline?


----------



## tech/a

> I will run with a test of 5.5/5.6 then away we go to 8.5 for another test.




At this point thats as good as you'll get H/S.
There is no current analysis which points to anything else.
I dont call indicators of any form "analysis."
It would be wise simply to play what we can analyze NOW and if things alter appreciably --- re asses.
So if things play out there is a 50% + side and a stop at the low a 10% down side.
Take care of risk----
Not bad.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Looks like the bearish rising wedge on the shorter term daily chart has broken out in the expected direction.
> 
> Measured target = approximately 4.4c
> View attachment 44064





Bearish cross on the daily slow stochastic...

Click


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Looks like the bearish rising wedge on the shorter term daily chart has broken out in the expected direction.
> Measured target = approximately 4.4c




The other target scenario, (*approximately 4.0c*), measures the move into the wedge and subtracts that from the breakdown point. 

Volume isn't needed for confirmation and last year's unfilled gap = 4.0c

Click



Click




Link


----------



## notting

Even when I get charts they still seem to be a 50:50 bet.
Can they really be indicative in such short time frames?


----------



## TheAbyss

notting said:


> Even when I get charts they still seem to be a 50:50 bet.
> Can they really be indicative in such short time frames?




And when you have the same poster putting up various charts pointing at different targets/ conjectures you have to wonder what use a chart is until we get market stability and companies are valued on what they are/ are not doing rather than broader conditions outside their own control.

Pretty easy to take potshots at most explorers etc at the moment with current conditions as most are looking undervalued however who is to say this isnt the new normal now?

Having said that, PEN best get that DFS released


----------



## tech/a

> Even when I get charts they still seem to be a 50:50 bet.
> Can they really be indicative in such short time frames?




Quality of analysis is the key.
You'll find the cream floats to the top.

Analysis isn't there to prove any bias.
Each chart stands on its own.

PEN's analysis is pretty simple although many make technical analysis (or what they believe technical analysis to be) more complex than it really is.

I can see *NO REASON* to alter the analysis I have already presented.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> PEN's analysis is pretty simple although many make technical analysis (or what they believe technical analysis to be) more complex than it really is.
> View attachment 44088




With the greatest possible respect, how can you include the term "pretty simple" alongside an EWT chart?

"Penny shares usually do not have enough public participation to develop reliable wave patterns... 
Do not make learning the many ways of how to trade stocks any more confusing than it has to be."

Link


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> I can see *NO REASON* to alter the analysis I have already presented.
> 
> View attachment 44088




Took a punt just for fun .058.  Sorry if it prejudices the course of the futures history.


----------



## TheAbyss

Chalea said:


> With the greatest possible respect, how can you include the term "pretty simple" alongside an EWT chart?
> 
> "Penny shares usually do not have enough public participation to develop reliable wave patterns...
> Do not make learning the many ways of how to trade stocks any more confusing than it has to be."
> 
> Link





With knowledge comes simplicity.


----------



## tech/a

Hmm seems ignore doesnt cover quotes.

In answer.
If a counts not clear then I wont use it.
I agree some analysis isnt suited to Pennies.
However in this case it (Elliott) is appropriate in use on PEN.
Clearly the wave 3 reached extension and that is where it found good support.

Wave 5 may well play out lower than Wave 3

The simplicity of the analysis is then based around support and resistance.
Really that is all that is needed at this point---now that a good support base is in.
Everything else---until the analysis plays out----is *NOISE*


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> The simplicity of the analysis is then based around support and resistance.




I agree wholeheartedly!!!



> Really that is all that is needed at this point---now that a good support base is in.
> Everything else---until the analysis plays out----is *NOISE*




This is where we diverge. 
I have taken the liberty to draw what any reasonable/impartial observer would consider "a good support base".

Unfortunately PEN appears to have fallen beneath it...

In my humble opinion the recent 4.9c low will have to be retested, (and hold firm), before it can be considered "a good support base".


----------



## notting

I'm trying to resist saying that I'm heartened that your new resistance ex support line is at least heading in a some what positive direction.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> In my humble opinion the recent 4.9c low will have to be retested, (and hold firm), before it can be considered "a good support base".




Bulk of the buying market appears to agree...


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> I'm trying to resist saying that I'm heartened that your new resistance ex support line is at least heading in a some what positive direction.




Would you have said that four years ago?

Same set up, (recent support break, price hugging lower Bollinger band, RSI < 50 but not oversold)...

Click


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> Would you have said that four years ago?
> 
> Same set up, (recent support break, price hugging lower Bollinger band, RSI < 50 but not oversold)...
> 
> Click
> View attachment 44096




This mockery of technical analysis aside, do you have a point?

Even if it goes to 1c do you make any money out of it? After the first few altruistic charts and calls for ppl get to get out (which were perfectly fine) its getting a bit stale.

For the third and final time I will ask you. Do you actually trade? 

There have been boatloads of opportunities this week and last from micro caps to big caps. Perhaps effort could be better redirected at legitimate setups and trading opportunities than daily untradable targets.


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> This mockery of technical analysis aside...




Please refrain from mockery until your analysis  betters mine...

"PEN has recently made a beautiful double bottom, with a strong rejection of the lows."...:shake:



skyQuake said:


> To call that a rising wedge seems a bit stretched.
> 
> Looks like a breakout on the daily. Certainly not like a wedge
> View attachment 43733
> 
> 
> And the weekly too. Not enough bars to draw a wedge. Could be a channel. Who knows.
> View attachment 43734
> 
> 
> Difference with 07 is PEN has recently made a beautiful double bottom, with a strong rejection of the lows.


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> Please refrain from mockery until your analysis  betters mine...
> 
> "PEN has recently made a beautiful double bottom, with a strong rejection of the lows."...:shake:




What part of a 30% bounce from the lows isn't beautiful?

not sure about you, but I'm pretty happy with catching 1/2 that bounce rather than posting untradable downside targets.

I retain every right to mock t/a that is misleading or incorrectly applied (like most of yours are) Bearishness and bullishness has nothing to do with it.


It may come as a surprise but PEN going lower isn't because your charts said so. 

I get calls wrong all the time, but I move on and trade the next step. Eg that breakout on the daily turned into a false break; traders dogpiled on, but macro events/whatever else made it run out of steam. Supply came out of the woodwork and suddenly there were all these breakout traders who were underwater and needed to bail out.
That was the framework for the downmove, coupled with other uranium stocks + world markets rolling over. Definitely not because 2 lines were coming close together.


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> It may come as a surprise but PEN going lower isn't because your charts said so.





Agree 100%

Has NuCore's due diligence included a glimpse at PEN's chart?

Is that the reason why the "imminent" DFS still hasn't been released?

Link


----------



## hangseng

skc said:


> Are you saying you've sold and watching from the sideline? Or have I mis-interpreted what you meant by sideline?




No I haven't sold, but I do have a wad of cash, and a little more now thanks to a nice trade on CCC today. In and out within an hour...I could get to like TA ...I truly have no idea what it is all about it was purely a trade based on price and volume. 
My cash came from trading other stocks in the last few weeks and selling some in good profit.

Beginners luck? Maybe... but a bit of taking notice of tech/a's past info didn't hurt 

Right now I am sitting trying to decide is this it and time to add to my pile. So far it looks like it maybe but I do have to agree the chart looks about as healthy as as me after a dose of bad street food 

I am sitting on this cash for now in the hope some analysts (outside forums) were right and another dip would come. So half in half out so to speak. Even my most respected analyst Charlie Aitken of Bell Potter said it was highly possible, if not probable. And he is a resource stock Bull.

But now out of left field comes this pearler...



> *
> Uranium Prices:
> How To Profit As Uranium Prices Hit $140*
> 
> http://moneymorning.com/reports/UraniumPrices_MMURA0511.pdf






and this...




> Uranium Bull 3
> By Zeal, LLC
> Published: July 29, 2011 by GoldSpeculator
> Scott Wright July 29, 2011 2432 Words
> 
> Nuclear power has been a hot topic of recent. And as a result, the price action of its input commodity has been quite schizophrenic. Investors and speculators are in a state of great wonderment over what to expect from this intriguing mineral that is mined for energy.
> 
> Based on its core strategic fundamentals, investors ought to be wildly bullish on uranium?s future. But with a veil of uncertainty cast over it thanks to the tragic Fukushima disaster, should we be looking at the future differently? Of course only time will tell how things play out. But based on cold-hard rationality, my money is on a future where nuclear power is an indispensible part of the world?s energy infrastructure.
> 
> This rationality is based on the fact that electricity demand is expected to increase by about 75% over the next 20 or so years. With this soaring demand, only economically-scalable sources of energy will suffice. For a variety of reasons renewable energy does not have the right combination of economics and scalability in today?s environment. And while coal and natural gas will continue to be big players, the world?s push towards clean energy pits a lot of objections to these sources.
> 
> Nuclear energy on the other hand is scalable, economical, sustainable, reliable, and even with such black-swan events as Chernobyl and Fukushima, it is clean. It already accounts for about 14% of the world?s electricity, and most of the world?s utilities/governments realize that nuclear power is integral to meeting future energy needs.
> 
> For these reasons and more uranium, the commodity that fuels nuclear power, is in the midst of an incredibly-powerful bull market. And based on the economic imbalance of the uranium market, this bull ought to plow forward for many years to come.
> 
> http://www.gold-speculator.com/zeal-llc/61784-uranium-bull-3-a.html





Is the fall of the U price over and a double bottom about to play out...a double test of the Fukushima lows maybe????


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> I could get to like TA ...Is the fall of the U price over and a double bottom about to play out...a double test of the Fukushima lows maybe????





I doubt it! 
It's a descending triangle continuation pattern with a $40 target...


----------



## skc

hangseng said:


> No I haven't sold, but I do have a wad of cash, and a little more now thanks to a nice trade on CCC today. In and out within an hour...I could get to like TA ...I truly have no idea what it is all about it was purely a trade based on price and volume.




Thanks for clarifying. Good luck.


----------



## notting

Uranium was a bit of an analysts and market darling leading into F@#$UpShema.
It was interesting watching them singing from the same hymn book quite consistently.
This was quickly revised.
However, China is going to be a massive user and is building many, many uranium based electricity producing plants.

After reviewing their plans after F@#$UpShema.  China is going like a bull at a red flag for uranium!!!
It didn't take them long to make a bid on BMN after the disaster which they believe they will receive little resistance to as it is not in Australia who would deem it a possible security issue.

What they are hoping for from PEN, is a little unclear.  Perhaps they are hoping to make the deal between PEN and NuCore more difficult by seeking to drive down the the price of PEN, taking a chunk of the holding and be difficult.
Hard to say. 
 I'd be supprised if they went for a full take over.


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> I doubt it!
> It's a descending triangle continuation pattern with a $40 target...
> 
> View attachment 44114




That post displays how mindless your thought processes actually have become.

At $40 almost all current producers would stop producing due to the cost of production (except for PEN and a few others), creating a worldwide massive shortage in supply. It is laughable to state the least.

What happens when supply drops off and demand increases, with any commodity????

Demand is going to increase, that is now a given. Where will the price go? Definitely not $40....

A new level of ignorance, or is it just plain incompetence,  has just been achieved.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> ...but I do have to agree the chart looks about as healthy as as me after a dose of bad street food
> I am sitting on this cash for now in the hope some analysts (outside forums) were right and another dip would come. So half in half out so to speak. Even my most respected analyst Charlie Aitken of Bell Potter said it was highly possible...




"…Totally despised uranium stocks should make at least a temporary low in the next few weeks, believe the unbelievable or not."

James Dines


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> That post displays how mindless your thought processes actually have become.
> 
> At $40 almost all current producers would stop producing due to the cost of production (except for PEN and a few others), creating a worldwide massive shortage in supply. It is laughable to state the least.
> 
> What happens when supply drops off and demand increases, with any commodity????
> 
> Demand is going to increase, that is now a given. Where will the price go? Definitely not $40....
> 
> A new level of ignorance, or is it just plain incompetence,  has just been achieved.





LOL...spot the "imminent" obvious historical support level...


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "…Totally despised uranium stocks should make at least a temporary low in the next few weeks, believe the unbelievable or not."
> 
> James Dines




Another sub $50 lower low.

Trend?


----------



## rnr

Chalea]Has NuCore's due diligence included a glimpse at PEN's chart?
Is that the reason why the "imminent" DFS still hasn't been released?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=notting said:


> Perhaps they are hoping to make the deal between PEN and NuCore more difficult by seeking to drive down the the price of PEN




From the way I see it driving the price down is beneficial to NuCore, not a stumbling block, as they will end up with a far greater number of shares and options.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> The other target scenario, (*approximately 4.0c*), measures the move into the wedge and subtracts that from the breakdown point.




Updating the daily chart's bearish wedge...

Click


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Longer term bearish continuation rectangle support @ 5.9c failed this week and now acts as resistance.
> *Target = 5.9 - (8.3 - 5.9) = 3.5c*
> Click
> View attachment 44044




Updating the weekly chart's bearish continuation rectangle...

Click


----------



## Chalea

"Within the next 15 years as many as 100 industry standard 900 MW nuclear reactors, concentrated in the "old nuclear' countries will have to be decommissioned, dismantled and made safe - unless the sinister farce of reactor operating lifetime extensions goes on playing. In some countries, especially Germany, Switzerland and probably Japan this farce has already ended or could end very soon. When it does, nuclear debt will go into overdrive from its already high gear shift setting.

Nuclear power is capital intensive, lives on subsidies, thrives on false hopes and dies in debt.

...the near-term future crisis of reactor decommissioning - which should (in a sane world) only hasten the total abandonment of this failed option for supplying "cheap, clean and safe" power."

Link


----------



## indeck

I think it's about time to bust out the ignore.  Your ramblings aside, your avatar discredits any real arguement you have.


----------



## TheAbyss

indeck said:


> I think it's about time to bust out the ignore.  Your ramblings aside, your avatar discredits any real arguement you have.




You have to question the agenda here.

Posts in total:93
Posts in PEN thread: 93

An agenda or a vendetta? You do have to admire the dogged determination to ensure we are all aware of his thoughts on PEN. WOnder how long until a push for an alternate energy source or U stock pops up? 

Just asking so that readers have a clear understanding that they need to consider motives of posters as opposed to taking things on face value.

PS, you could ask the same thing about a certain posters motives in the LYC thread


----------



## Chalea

indeck said:


> Your ramblings aside, your avatar discredits any real arguement (sic) you have.




You may be able to rationalise away Fukushima, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Three mile Island etc, etc, but how can you rationalise Mr. John (Gus) Simpson, Mr. Anthony Simpson and Mr. Jonathan Whyte being involved in a Wyoming coal seam methane IPO at this state of PEN's development?

What's the priority/more "imminent"? PEN DFS or CGY IPO?

Perception is everything...

Link


----------



## Chalea

TheAbyss said:


> An agenda or a vendetta? You do have to admire the dogged determination...WOnder how long until a push for an alternate energy source or U stock pops up?




Balance...
Thank you...
Will never happen!


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> You may be able to rationalise away Fukushima, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Three mile Island etc, etc, but how can you rationalise Mr. John (Gus) Simpson, Mr. Anthony Simpson and Mr. Jonathan Whyte being involved in a Wyoming coal seam methane IPO at this state of PEN's development?
> 
> What's the priority/more "imminent"? PEN DFS or CGY IPO?
> 
> Perception is everything...
> 
> Link




Chalea, Gus is not directly involved in the making of the DFS. He is the person who gives the order to publish and signs it off as official, afaik.
Besides, his position on Cady will be non-executive. I am purely speculating here, and I may be way way off, but on the subject of Cady i suspect he may soon find a use for the $100m in Pala funds for an acquisition..too daring of an idea?


----------



## skc

TheAbyss said:


> An agenda or a vendetta? You do have to admire the dogged determination to ensure we are all aware of his thoughts on PEN. WOnder how long until a push for an alternate energy source or U stock pops up?
> 
> Just asking so that readers have a clear understanding that they need to consider motives of posters as opposed to taking things on face value.




Personally I think Chalea is quite the Yin to HangSeng's Yang on PEN.

The true story probably lies somewhere in between.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Another sub $50 lower low. Trend?




"“The spot uranium market continues to edge downward on price-sensitive demand,” Ux said. “August is the height of the vacation season, giving buyers yet another reason to stay away from a market that has been languishing this summer as the implications of the Fukushima accident have set in.” 

...“However, this is a far cry from the expanding demand we saw last year that was sufficient to sustain a price increase over a number of months. If sufficient demand is not forthcoming, the price could continue its downward trend.”"

Link

Big picture Uranium weekly chart. *Closed @ $49.95*
Will post the Natural Gas chart if requested for those interested in the PEN management's new venture...

Click



corn:


----------



## beav

Hi Chalea,
Would you pay any price for a PEN share ??
I don't look look at charts myself but prefer to look at potential some times i do this by comparing companies.
eg. PDN is capped somewhere around 1.7 billion. PEN is under 200million.
PDN grossed 50million profit last FY. Pending permits and DFS somewhere around PFS numbers PEN will be grossing around the same amount in 18 months - 2 years. If the company can acheive this surley they will be worth at least half of that 1.7billion.Do you agree with this type of analysis on any level or is your positve/negative view based purely on trends ? and based on current information is there any situation where you see an investor getting a return on a PEN share investment?

IMO
If something along the lines of what I expect happens, ie. we acheive returns similar to what ive stated above, over the next two years we should be looking at an un-compounded return of a couple hundred percent per annum for two years to be worth somewhere around 800million


----------



## notting

> You may be able to rationalise away Fukushima, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Three mile Island etc, etc, but how can you rationalise Mr. John (Gus) Simpson, Mr. Anthony Simpson and Mr. Jonathan Whyte being involved in a Wyoming coal seam methane IPO at this state of PEN's development?
> 
> Perception is everything...




Money talks, BS walks, but endures from China.
China is the main source of growth for a lot of things.  It is the biggest source of growth for Uranium usage and it's about to explode on a relative scale.

To repeat, China did a review after Fukushima then made an amazingly quick grap for BMN!!  *That's money talking* and a true reflection of where uranium is goinging and where China is going with uranium. Big time!

*Propagandists’, you will notice, will not engage when someone makes a valid point.
They will simply sloganize over the top of it with repetitious charts pictures or whatever, they will shout the same mantra to try to control the noise.  Ridicule the emporer  of the opposition etc*

The Chinese are relentless with it and have been doing it for over half a century'  The entire nation is delusional with respect to politics and the global status quo. 
China has thousands of employees and computers combing the net to find stuff and try to keep the internal propaganda out there in the broader world as well!

All the people are taught, from very early in age, to not trust anything that contradicts the communist dictatorships mental hold on the people.

The Chinese people are brainwashed to believe that western media is propaganda and that the state controlled Chinese press is free media!!! 
It's very extensive and very organised - *militant*- and all over the net as well these days, especially when topics about Comunist China's activities and interests surface.

China and North Korea are basically cults!  The people are brainwashed.

Pen is uranium focused and tied up with the United States.  I am sure it is of great interest to China!!


----------



## Chalea

beav said:


> Hi Chalea,
> Would you pay any price for a PEN share ??
> I don't look look at charts myself but prefer to look at potential some times i do this by comparing companies.
> eg. PDN is capped somewhere around 1.7 billion. PEN is under 200million.
> PDN grossed 50million profit last FY. Pending permits and DFS somewhere around PFS numbers PEN will be grossing around the same amount in 18 months - 2 years. If the company can acheive this surley they will be worth at least half of that 1.7billion.Do you agree with this type of analysis on any level or is your positve/negative view based purely on trends ? and based on current information is there any situation where you see an investor getting a return on a PEN share investment?
> 
> IMO
> If something along the lines of what I expect happens, ie. we acheive returns similar to what ive stated above, over the next two years we should be looking at an un-compounded return of a couple hundred percent per annum for two years to be worth somewhere around 800million




Each to their own beav,

I wouldn't buy PEN. 
Too many shares. Sector is "Despised" and will take years to possibly recover public support. The use of "Imminent"...

No offence, but comparing anything to PDN/FMG is fantasy. Production won't bring an SP explosion. 

EXT is also spruiked, but PEN too had their 10 bagger off GFC lows.

If Uranium can form a consolidating base @ $40 & PEN can follow any long term up trend then you may profit.

What caused PDN to rise? Uranium.
What happened @ Fukushima?

Click


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> *Propagandists’, you will notice, will not engage when someone makes a valid point.
> They will simply sloganize over the top of it with repetitious charts pictures or whatever, they will shout the same mantra to try to control the noise.  Ridicule the emporer  of the opposition etc*
> China and North Korea are basically cults!  The people are brainwashed.
> Pen is uranium focused and tied up with the United States.  I am sure it is of great interest to China!!




ROFLMAO! My cover is as blown as a Fukushima reactor

Forget the Chinese, the Russians are coming!

LOLink


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea, your display picture atm clearly shows us that you are opposed to nuclear power. You clearly have an agenda coming on this forum and unrelentlessly attacking the thread of an emerging uranium explorer/future producer. PEN is vulnerable to global sentiment, more so because it does not generate revenue.

You definitely have blown your cover. Regardless of whether other posters may ulterior motives, YOUR analysis is not objective. If the sp rises short term you will attack the long term. If the sp falls you overlook causes due to the macro environment. That is ridiculous.

There is a future in Uranium. In a world with fast depleting resources, accidents such as Fukushima only encourage further research to make extraction and production safer. It is not in our nature to shy away from a challenge. Even if PEN fails in the future, nuclear power will be a major source of energy. *Humankind has never found a natural resource that it has not used.*

I can also post up many articles like you do to prove my point. There are two sides to this argument, and there is plenty of material on the internet. How about you move your argument to the PDN thread, and tell them they should go back to exploring because production is the bane of their share price.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Chalea, your display picture atm clearly shows us that you are opposed to nuclear power. You clearly have an agenda coming on this forum and unrelentlessly attacking the thread of an emerging uranium explorer/future producer. PEN is vulnerable to global sentiment, more so because it does not generate revenue.




My first PEN post here was a chart. SP at the time was 8.2c. 
I'm not attacking anything. My "lunacy" TA was attacked, I'm just backing up my TA with relevant information.



> YOUR analysis is not objective. If the sp rises short term you will attack the long term. If the sp falls you overlook causes due to the macro environment. That is ridiculous.




Correct, it's extremely subjective. 
Look, I've posted hourly, daily, weekly & monthly charts...what more can you ask?
This is the PEN thread so I'll stick to PEN & Uranium only...(oh, and natural gas if requested!)



> There is a future in Uranium.




Tell that to the Japanese...


----------



## Ubershrewd

What happened in Japan is absolutely so sad, we cannot begin to try to understand how they feel. It is true. However, to date, not one person has been killed due to radiation exposure. In fact, no one has received a lethal dose. The damage was done by the tsunami itself, and it's destruction of infrastructure. The media has had a field day diverting the public's attention away from reality, as usual. http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201104/r744011_6113902.asx which I took from another forum.

Every time a major disaster has occurred in the world, much effort is applied to prevent such tragedies from reoccurring. We don't stop flying in planes because there has been a crash. We don't stop mining after there has been a accident at a site. 

The last major nuclear incident before Fukushima must've been over 20 years ago. Needless to say, our knowledge of such processes has improved drastically since then, and it is unfair to base an argument on Fukushima when it was hit by a godzilla of a tsunami on a scale which we will likely not see in a long time. I acknowledge the risk is there though. There is risk in everything. We will have to agree to disagree!


----------



## indeck

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...espite-fukushima/story-e6frg9ex-1226119217497

"While the Japanese, Germans, Swiss and Italians have gone into a nuclear funk, it's a case of "praise the Lord and pass the yellowcake" elsewhere.

Russia is testing its recently completed Kalinin nuclear plant, Lithuania is short-listing suppliers for a huge nuclear plant, while the United Arab Emirates is letting main contracts for its first nuclear complex.

Since the Fukushima panic, three new reactors have been commissioned (in China, India and Pakistan). The Chinese, notwithstanding lip-service about safety, are still full steam ahead.

Meanwhile, here in Australia the industry is a little down in the mouth. The uranium spot price has fallen from a little over $US70/lb earlier this year to $US50.50/lb, which is not enough to justify development of many projects unless they are planning to use low-cost in-situ leaching (pumping fluid downhole to bring the uranium to the surface)."


----------



## Ubershrewd

indeck said:


> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...espite-fukushima/story-e6frg9ex-1226119217497
> 
> The uranium spot price has fallen from a little over $US70/lb earlier this year to $US50.50/lb, which is not enough to justify development of many projects unless they are planning to use low-cost in-situ leaching (pumping fluid downhole to bring the uranium to the surface)."




Which, unless I am mistaken, is what PEN intends to use


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> "...unless they are planning to use low-cost in-situ leaching (pumping fluid downhole to bring the uranium to the surface)."
> Which, unless I am mistaken, is what PEN intends to use




Not if the locals can help it...(Strata Energy = PEN)...:nono::nono::nono::nono::nono:

"...This process of ISL has a long history of serious problems that have yet to be resolved.
You can find reports of this on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission website
(www.nrc.gov). They provide details of millions of gallons of spills, leaks, and
excursions of contaminated solutions, proving these violations are business as usual at
these sites. Strata Energy may be using sophisticated technology to determine where the
ore bodies are located. However, to my knowledge, there is no new technology for
actually implementing and completing this process. They will be processing the uranium
in the same manner as the other sites, with the same huge potential for contamination and
depletion of our aquifers...

...How will they get rid of the millions and millions of gallons of
contaminated waste water that this process produces? More importantly, how will they
restore the water to baseline values when they are done? According to the NRC, there
has not been a single ISL site that has been able to restore the water to baseline, without
having the standards reduced.

The truly unbelievable comment was that this is “the most environmentally friendly
process known”. The uranium companies are the only ones that call it this, and merely
because the surface disturbance is not as bad as with conventional mining. However, we
will still see huge areas that are currently used for grazing and hunting, covered with
processing buildings, new roads, new power lines, acres and acres of waste water
evaporation ponds and more. And what can be environmentally friendly about
concentrating uranium, selenium, arsenic, and other poisonous elements into our
aquifers? Water is our most precious resource. *We can all live without uranium, but
none of us can live without water*."

Pam Viviano
Hulett Wyoming

Link


----------



## notting

Pen is just one uranium stock. If you were an activist youd be targeting something more significant. It seems the objective is to now convince people that this is a uranium activist not an interested party. Either way it negates the chart analysis.  It seems the cover has become more important than the initial objective to drive the stock down for the moment! 

Activists tend not to know much about the corporate culture, less about stock market behavior and even less about charting etc. It's not their field!!!

Pens having an up day for the moment!


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> If you were an activist youd be targeting something more significant.
> Activists tend not to know much about the corporate culture, less about stock market behavior and even less about charting etc. It's not their field!!!




LOL! I'm no activist & all I'm targeting is 3.5c

Remember this? (25th-July-2011 07:57 PM)



corn:


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> Pens having an up day for the moment!




You'll need a few of them to alter the soon to be, (imminent), confirmed long term monthly chart...

Click


----------



## notting

> & all I'm targeting is 3.5c




So your drawing charts and analysing them with a negative bias in the hope that you can drive the stock down to 3.5c to buy PEN?


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> So your drawing charts and analysing them with a negative bias...




How else could you objectively assess PEN's chart?..



> you can drive the stock down to 3.5c to buy PEN?




The "Chinese" will buy PEN before I do!..


----------



## notting

> The "Chinese" will buy PEN before I do!..



So you are not an activist and are *claiming not to be a Chinese* interested party nor are you a buyer of the stock.  You'd have shorted PEN and *your drawing charts and analysing them with a negative bias* to try to make money out of it?


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> So you are not an activist and are *claiming not to be a Chinese* interested party nor are you a buyer of the stock.  You'd have shorted PEN then and *your drawing charts and analysing them with a negative bias* to try to make money out of it?




Wrong again...Why didn't you ask me this before you bought back in?


----------



## Ubershrewd

So Chalea, I agree with notting. If you despise nuclear power, why don't you short pen and contribute to the downfall of this stock if you are so confident?

edit: and make some money while you're at it! you can't possibly lose..


----------



## notting

Chalea said:


> Wrong again...




Wrong again?  Hmmmm
OK. 
Does that leave you as a person obsessed with one stock, committed to posting negative bias interpretations of charts on a daily basis whilst maintaining no financial, political or corporate interest in the stock?

You didn't seem too concerned about appearing as an activest with your uranium free world logo and your picture above of the baby being tested for uranium. A little reluctance to be so bold as to appear Chinese however.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> So Chalea... If you despise nuclear power...




Please don't misquote me...:nono:

Uranium's biggest spruiker of yesteryear, James Dines, recently said -

*"…Totally despised uranium stocks should make at least a temporary low in the next few weeks, believe the unbelievable or not."*

Link


----------



## Ubershrewd

The message in your ever changing display pictures is glaringly obvious. You are against nuclear power full stop, I don't know why you bother to deny it; oh but you havent denied it, you simply divert the attention away to another quote.  

I admit this silence from the company is baffling, and you have taken advantage of that. I think I will just wait for September; if the permitting goes well and the sp rises as expected, I will come back to see how you justify your t/a again. 

All the best in your trading.
Uber


----------



## notting

Ubershrewd said:


> :The message in your ever changing display pictures is glaringly obvious. You are against nuclear power full stop,
> Uber




Na. The activist pictures are a diversion, a common tactic especially from the Chinese.

It's too insignificant in the general scheme of Uranium mining to have caught an activists attention.

There is an interest in PEN.  

This makes it even more attractive to me.  I might buy some more.  The other uranium stocks are haveing a craker of a day.  ERA up over 8%

Thanks Chalea for keeping it in the for front. I would never have known it even existed!


----------



## skc

notting said:


> Na. The activist pictures are a diversion, a common tactic especially from the Chinese.
> 
> It's too insignificant in the general scheme of Uranium mining to have caught an activists attention.
> 
> There is an interest in PEN.
> 
> This makes it even more attractive to me.  I might buy some more.  The other uranium stocks are haveing a craker of a day.  ERA up over 8%
> 
> Thanks Chalea for keeping it in the for front. I would never have known it even existed!




Are you saying the Chalea works for some Chinese interests, talking down PEN here so his masters can buy PEN on the cheap?


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> Na. The activist pictures are a diversion, a common tactic especially from the Chinese.
> 
> This makes it even more attractive to me.  I might buy some more.  The other uranium stocks are haveing a craker of a day.  ERA up over 8%...Thanks Chalea




Well it can't fall any further, or can it???

Call me Charea...


----------



## notting

skc said:


> Are you saying the Chalea works for some Chinese interests, talking down PEN here so his masters can buy PEN on the cheap?




That isn't clear. 

What is clear is the pattern of propaganda behaviour, with respect to *one stock* amidst many uranium stocks. Clearly the intent is to talk PEN down with as much distorted evidence as possible.  

Suddenly showing your self to be an activist when suggestions about Chinese are posited is an interesting thing.

If you were not worried about the suggestion that you were a Chinese interested party then you'd be not making sudden efforts, straight after the suggestion, to pose as an activist! You'd carry on charting rather than toss up a diversion from that with *something that compromises the pretence to - balanced charting!! By posing as an activist.* 
To me that is somewhat indicative!
But lot's of info is coming out about PEN which is quite interesting!!


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> If you were not worried about the suggestion that you were a Chinese interested party then you'd be not making sudden efforts, straight after the suggestion, to pose as an activist! You'd carry on charting rather than toss up a diversion from that with *something that compromises the pretence to - balanced charting!!*



*

Ah, I see the probrem...you are 'downunder' in Austraria. 

I agree, from your perspective the chart is fantastic!

I just sold the house and proughed all my yuan into it!

Good ruck!


*


----------



## Trevoru

Chalea - you have 90 plus posts in regard to this stock - from memory you don't own any PEN and have no intetnion of owning - don't you have better things to do than put up negative posts.
Right or wrong you are preaching to believers and you are not going to change their minds - you seem only to be promoting antagonism.
Move on dude - TU


----------



## Chalea

Trevoru said:


> ...you are preaching to believers and you are not going to change their minds.




Just posting some charts & sharing opinions.
This isn't the PR arm of the company. 
What happened to the DFS?


----------



## againsthegrain

Its quiet funny the more and harder you work at down ramping pen the stronger it looks. Might take a pun on this one soon


----------



## skc

againsthegrain said:


> Its quiet funny *the more and harder you work at down ramping pen the stronger it looks*. Might take a pun on this one soon




Can you elaborate on the logic behind this statement?


----------



## Chalea

againsthegrain said:


> Might take a pun (sic) on this one soon




Go for it!

Trending beautifully down the lower Bollinger band so a perfect time to buy...

...If your time frame's less than an hour...

Click


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Go for it!
> 
> Trending beautifully down the lower Bollinger band so a perfect time to buy...




Cheers for your insightful T/A view of PEN Chalea.

I have just viewed the Spot Price chart of Uranium on MFURMDUR:IND on Bloomberg. I have observed the downtrend line touching the lower highs has just been broken.
Chalea.....may I ask your view of the forth coming implications this may impose on the share price of PEN?
In other words....does this alter your projections?


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Cheers for your insightful T/A view of PEN Chalea.
> I have just viewed the Spot Price chart of Uranium on MFURMDUR:IND on Bloomberg. I have observed the downtrend line touching the lower highs has just been broken.
> Chalea.....may I ask your view of the forth coming implications this may impose on the share price of PEN?
> In other words....does this alter your projections?




Always a pleasure Karlos68!

Just hit $49.97      :bad:

Keep an eye on the big picture. It'll be a while before uranium recovers from it's pump and dump...


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Always a pleasure Karlos68!
> 
> Just hit $49.97      :bad:
> 
> Keep an eye on the big picture. It'll be a while before uranium recovers from it's pump and dump...




Interesting conjecture Chalea.
I note the 5 year Spot Price chart of Uranium sends trend lines either sharply up or down.


May I ask Chalea
Is your thoughts within the realm of a potential confirmed uptrend due to the now break in Spot Price breaking the downtrend?


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> May I ask Chalea
> Is your thoughts within the realm of a potential confirmed uptrend due to the now break in Spot Price breaking the downtrend?




With respect Karlos, how can a downtrend be broken while the price is still falling...

Note - Fukushima low broken...


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> With respect Karlos, how can a downtrend be broken while the price is still falling...
> 
> Note - Fukushima low broken...
> 
> View attachment 44197




HA Ha hahahahahahaha. 
Thats what I like about you Chalea, you always manipulate a downtrend for a good laugh.....hahahahahaha.

How about lower your downtrend line on the Spot Price chart to touch the lower highs rather than leave air for it to breathe my friend


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> HA Ha hahahahahahaha. Thats what I like about you Chalea, you always manipulate a downtrend for a good laugh.....hahahahahaha.




OK, for argument's sake, let's shorten the time frame to post Fukushima catastrophe...

Happy?




PDN due to drop another 10% IMO...


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> OK, for argument's sake, let's shorten the time frame to post Fukushima catastrophe...
> 
> Happy?




Sweet mother of God.....why did you feel the down trend started due to Fukushima...You of all folks should be the first to stick up your hand Chalea and voice to ASF the downtrend  was already in place......why did you delay your fears to the folks on this forum several months after this event? 



Out of interest..........I am under the impression you feel folks should be selling their portfolio containing PEN stock at the present time........I am baffled....Viewing your style of posting, surely it would have be wise to allay your fears of a downtrend to folks on ASF before Fukushima?


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Sweet mother of God.....why did you feel the down trend started due to Fukushima...You of all folks should be the first to stick up your hand Chalea and voice to ASF the downtrend  was already in place......




PEN merely broke support the trading day before the tsunami's full effects were seen. That's not a downtrend...



> Out of interest..........I am under the impression you feel folks should be selling their portfolio containing PEN stock at the present time........I am baffled..




Folks can do as they please!
A picture's worth a thousand words...



:goodnight


----------



## Miner

I have returned to visit the forum after some good weeks.
I have taken particular interest on the postings by Chalea on PEN.
I would like to humbly submit what is the real interest for down ramping PEN by you Chalea ?
If you are not a buyer why not contribute to other threads ?
Why your love for Yuan is posted in PEN thread.
Chinese are smart operators and no wonder in next 20 years probably most of the industries will be sold to them. What about thinking for the Nation known as Australia and open the cards so that we understand your motive behind PEN and what constructive thoughts you have done in PEN thread in connection with uranium ?
No personal grudge or appreciation here but calling a shot so that transparency and ethics in ASF stand high as always

Cheers


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> I would like to humbly submit what is the real interest for down ramping PEN by you Chalea?




So if he says, 'time to buy! ', or she says, 'I love PEN, DFS soon! ', the rest of us have to gather round in wonderment and unquestioningly applaud their trading prowess?    

Read this...



			
				Spaghetti;353124  23rd-October-2008 05:21 PM said:
			
		

> Downramp? Do you mean this?
> 
> _Ramper_
> 
> Buy xxx and you will be rich in two months and be able to retire and spend your life jetsetting all for the grand sum of $10,000. You will soon find out that this stock will end all your financial troubles and will return 4,000%. Nobody knows about it yet, be the first to enter this multibagger, before the Chinese come shopping. If the price goes down be sure to stock up because all the smart money like Buffet buy at the bottom.
> 
> _enter downramper_
> 
> But the company has nothing of any value? How can it go up up 4,000%? On what basis, the only evidence is that they have a few grains of gold left over from panning 120 years ago and a yellowed map with arrows of where Lassister was last spotted.
> 
> _ramper_
> 
> Why do you come on here downramping when you do not own the stock. I know, you are trying to get people to sell so you can buy cheaper. You are a criminal and I am going to report you to ASIC. Nobody listen to the downrampers, they just want to buy your stock cheap and make 5,000%. This is a long term hold folks, you will not regret it. I spoke to the company yesterday and they assured me the report will be out in a matter of days and was told by someone in the know that it wll be good news and the market will wake up to it's potential.
> 
> _enter downramper_
> 
> I am not downramping, just stating the facts
> 
> _ramper_
> 
> You would not know the facts if they hit you in the face. I know because I have connections in the industry. Also I spoke to a geo and he confirms the potential and says it is going to fly. Also heard that Chinese are interested and should be hearing something within next few weeks. See I KNOW the facts, whereas you do not.
> 
> _enter downramper, some weeks later_
> 
> Still no Chinese, s/p down 200%, so what is up?
> 
> _ramper gone (with profit) so a convert (with losses) answers now_
> 
> Has nothing to do with the Chinese or the fact they haven't got jorc yet or any decent gold finds, it is the market in general that caused the s/p to fall. The company will bounce back and those still holding will soon make 4000% and you are just jealous.
> 
> ah  the evils of the downramper, ruining make believe stories, Santa is real you know!




Link


----------



## Chalea

againsthegrain said:


> Might take a pun on this one soon




Short term rectangle.
Might be going to 6.2c soon...or 5.0c if the wedge is respected...

Click


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Short term rectangle.
> Might be going to 6.2c soon...or 5.0c if the wedge is respected...
> View attachment 44214




How could you not respect the wedge?..:dunno:

Short term support crumbled today giving a short term target of 5.0c

"16MB"...7 months...:bad:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> I doubt it!
> It's a descending triangle continuation pattern with a $40 target...
> View attachment 44114






:fan


----------



## Chalea

Click



Link


----------



## barney

Chalea said:


> View attachment 44224
> 
> :fan




Lol ..... I don't think its quite as bad as your picture indicates, but the point is taken.

The spot price for U is not ideal of course, but the actual impact on PEN's future profit is still speculative at this stage of pre-production.  

In my view, the problem for PEN management in the short term, is that if they release the DFS in the current climate  (low Spot price and high AUD), the projected baseline figures will not be as attractive as they will most likely be in the future ....  unfortunate, but I think the non-release of the DFS is a wise tactic by management until they can possibly secure up some additional contracts, or release another large upgrade to the resource base, which would give investors a little more confidence.

Difficult short term conditions for most small stocks at the moment, but PEN is in a far better position than most to ride it out in my view.  We shall see what time delivers.


----------



## Chalea

barney said:


> Lol .....




Do you think this is funny? 
May need to read the article twice...

Here's a taste -

"....These are the sorts of changes that bring great commodity bull markets to an end. And it's why I have changed my thinking on the sector.* I have now decided I am not touching uranium juniors.*

Irwin Olian feels the same way. He emailed me this yesterday: "The worldwide backlash against the nuclear power industry is only beginning to be felt and promises to deal a devastating blow long-term to the uranium stock sector. The catastrophic events in Japan were followed by a precipitous drop in uranium share prices, which have just had their obligatory dead cat bounce.

"What lies in store is a long-term decline in the sector as new projects are deferred or cancelled, public sentiment and political pressures make it impossible to get permitting or green lighting, uranium prices retreat and juniors find it virtually impossible to get new financing to develop projects for which there will be no economic justification. This will all be reflected in a slow, inexorable decline in share prices and ultimately the failure of most uranium juniors."

It's a grim outlook. But I think it's the right one."

The Bull Market in Uranium is Over


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> This will all be reflected in a slow, inexorable decline in share prices and ultimately the failure of *most* uranium juniors."




 most, I'm glad to know that PEN stands a chance then.

"As a long time proponent of nuclear power, last week France announced that it will invest $1.4 billion in its nuclear energy program, diverging from contentious deliberation from neighboring states on nuclear energy policy after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that damaged the Fukushima Daiichi plant in March. The President of France, Nicholas Sarkozy, issued a strong commitment announcing the energy funding package by declaring there is “*no alternative to nuclear energy today*.” With the capital used to fund fourth generation nuclear power plant technology, focusing research development in nuclear safety, the announcement validates many decades of energy infrastructure and legacy expansion. France currently operates the second largest nuclear fleet in the world with 58 reactors, responsible for supplying more than 74 percent of domestic electricity demand supplied to the world’s fifth largest economy last year."

Took a leaf out of your book Chalea, plenty of pro uranium news around.
http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/8240/france-commits-to-nuclear-future.html


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> "...last week France announced that it will invest $1.4 billion in its nuclear energy program...




LOL, you must have skipped this...

"Olympic Dam...Extract Resources' Husab project...BHP will produce the copper, and sell the uranium 'at any price'. Even at a loss. Supply Could Surge Just As Demand Collapses...I just can't see there being much future for uranium exploration and junior mine development..."

And this...I know you read this...

"UNDERSTAND THAT THIS MODEL IS 16MB IN SIZE AND CHECKING ALL THE CALCULATIONS IS BOTH TIME CONSUMING AND LABORIOUS"   
:horse:


----------



## So_Cynical

Just for some balance, i found this in the latest market update from Silex

http://www.silex.com.au/public/uploads/announce/26-8-11 FY11 Operational Update.pdf



			
				sile said:
			
		

> Nuclear Industry Status and Growth Outlook *Global demand for enriched uranium is expected to increase significantly over the next few decades*, with the anticipated construction of a new generation of nuclear power plants to help meet the world‟s converging needs to achieve energy supply security and address climate change. In particular, significant nuclear expansion plans have been announced by several countries including China (200 GWe or around 130 nuclear plants by 2030), India (60 GWe or around 40 nuclear plants by 2030), the USA and the UK, and over 30 other countries.
> 
> Recent data from the World Nuclear Association states that there are currently 440 nuclear plants in operation around the world, *62 plants under construction, 154 plants planned, and another 343 nuclear plants proposed worldwide. If all these plants proceed, global nuclear electricity capacity will increase from today‟s 376 GWe to a total of around 1000 GWe in 2030 – nearly a three-fold increase.* This will place substantial demands on new uranium enrichment capacity over the next two decades.




Nuclear power is far from a spent force.


----------



## Miner

So_Cynical said:


> Just for some balance, i found this in the latest market update from Silex
> 
> http://www.silex.com.au/public/uploads/announce/26-8-11 FY11 Operational Update.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> Nuclear power is far from a spent force.





There are few nuclear power operators : Canada, France, China and India leaving aside USA.
Now there is a strong competition to acquire uranium producers by both China and India. China has few moles and agents in Australia who are constantly down ramping uranium prices and sentiment. So that China can buy few uranium mines in Australia and world wide at cheap prices.
India hardly produces uranium and see what Indian PM has said. Remember one of the key reasons (not published in Australian media but widely discussed in Indian media) that Indian PM decided not to visit Australia during CHOGM meet because of Australian nuclear policy.

Here u go and think why Indian PM considered to provide this speech. It is because they are uranium hungry and wants to develop sentiment for uranium. Once India picks up uranium then ball starts rolling

Cheers 

_Sify Home >> Finance >> Economy >> India's nuke plants safe, world-class: PMPTIIndia's nuke plants safe, world-class: PM2011-08-24 13:30:00
Last Updated: 2011-08-24 14:16:53 Hidden Object GamesAds by GooglePlay Hundreds of Amazing Hidden Object Games from the Experts!
WildTangent.com
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh talks to the media on his arrival at t...New Delhi: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday assured the Lok Sabha that nuclear facilities in the country were "world-class" and all efforts were being made to maintain the best safety standards for both on-shore and off-shore nuclear power plants. 

"Safety concerns are paramount...You have my assurance that while expanding our nuclear facilities we will not compromise on nuclear safety. This is an on-going process. Our nuclear facilities are world-class," Singh, who also holds the Atomic Energy portfolio, told the Lok Sabha during Question Hour. 

He said that after the recent tragedy in Fukushima, Japan where a nuclear power plant was hit during a Tsunami, he had ordered nuclear agencies like NPCIL, BARC and AERB to re-look into the issue of safety of India's nuclear installations. 

The Prime Minister's remarks came in response to a query from Jaswant Singh (BJP) about the steps being taken for ensuring safety of the nuclear power plants in Rajasthan. 

The BJP leader said six nuclear plants were already active in Rawatbhatta in Rajasthan and the seventh plant was coming up. He insisted that the Fukushima tragedy was a lesson and consequences of such disasters are phenomenal. 

Earlier, in reply to a question, Minister of State in PMO V Narayanasamy said that the Prime Minister has asked AERB to review the safety measures and has held meetings with the departments concerned and authorities to discuss the issue. 

"Four committees have been formed to go into additional security measures after the Fukushima tragedy. AERB has constituted a committee," Narayanasamy said. _


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> Now there is a strong competition to acquire uranium producers by both China and India. China has few moles and agents in Australia who are constantly down ramping uranium prices and sentiment.




:aliena:



> India hardly produces uranium...It is because they are uranium hungry and wants to develop sentiment for uranium. Once India picks up uranium then ball starts rolling




India doesn't have to go far to pick up any uranium...:nono:

"The news of the discovery of what is being hailed as the world’s largest uranium deposit in India has prompted conflicting comments from experts. The deposits in Andhra Pradesh are estimated to contain 49,000 tonnes of uranium. Indian scientists, however, believe that the quantity of uranium at Tummalapalle may triple to 150,000 tonnes, *which will make it world's largest uranium producing mine.*

 The new discovery is set to reduce India’s dependence on foreign suppliers of the yellow metal. Interestingly, the disclosure of the *mammoth uranium deposits *..."

Link


----------



## Chalea

So_Cynical said:


> ... Silex...Nuclear power is far from a spent force.




It appears Silex is though...


----------



## skc

Miner said:


> China has few moles and agents in Australia who are constantly down ramping uranium prices and sentiment. So that China can buy few uranium mines in Australia and world wide at cheap prices.




You can not be serious!  

What is your opinion on chemtrails?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15677&highlight=chemtrails


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> China has few moles and agents in Australia who are constantly down ramping uranium prices and sentiment. So that China can buy few uranium mines in Australia and world wide at cheap prices.






skc said:


> You can not be serious! What is your opinion on chemtrails?




They're spread by Santa's sled!!!:xmaswave

"Nobody knows about it yet, be the first to enter this multibagger, before the Chinese come shopping...

...Also heard that Chinese are interested and should be hearing something within next few weeks...

...Santa is real you know!"

Link

"Chemtrail spraying seems to be heaviest and most constant over North America and most countries of  western Europe. Some countries in Asia are being sprayed (Japan and Korea), but the greatest exception to any chemtrail activity whatsover is China. 
The Chinese are being spared completely because China is being groomed by the NWO to replace the United States as the leading nation of the world, both economically and militarily."

Link


----------



## barney

:







Chalea said:


> Do you think this is funny?




Chalea,  What I found funny was actually your sense of humour..... You used a picture and no words to make your point .... I thought that was clever ...... See, not everybody here hates you:

Seriously, many of your points are perfectly rational, and your price projections may or may not eventuate ...... but its up to the individual trader to play it as he sees it.

My honest opinion is that like most Uranium based stocks, PEN has some uphill battles to deal with, but, if I had to pick the most likely Uranium Junior to survive and prosper in the future, this would be it.

ps. If that is you in the above picture ...  I see potential problems developing in the future:


----------



## NewTrade

Chemtrails? NWO?

Remove the tin hats and get back to projections!


----------



## Chalea

NewTrade said:


> Remove the tin hats and get back to projections!




Okay, here goes...don't shoot the messenger...

Forget for a minute the short term rectangle, (target = 5.0c)
The bigger picture wedge, (targets = 4.4c/4.0c)
The unfilled gap @ 4.0c
The weekly chart's rectangle, (target = 3.5c)

Friday was pivotal. Traders were anticipating a MACD bullish cross following a RSI bullish divergence. Didn't happen...
The MACD didn't cross, but there's still hope?

Wrong! The RSI broke through it's support line dashing hope of the bullish divergence and *price fell out of it's pennant. 

Target = 2.0c* (In my opinion, do your own research)

Link

Click


----------



## Billyb

Huh? Im no expert but I think you may be pulling at straws calling that a penant. The lower line is supposed to be drawn through the troughs..like in the textbook diagram that you posted. can someone with more tech knowledge confrim this?


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Okay, here goes...don't shoot the messenger...
> 
> Forget for a minute the short term rectangle, (target = 5.0c)
> The bigger picture wedge, (targets = 4.4c/4.0c)
> The unfilled gap @ 4.0c
> The weekly chart's rectangle, (target = 3.5c)
> 
> Friday was pivotal. Traders were anticipating a MACD bullish cross following a RSI bullish divergence. Didn't happen...
> The MACD didn't cross, but there's still hope?
> 
> Wrong! The RSI broke through it's support line dashing hope of the bullish divergence and *price fell out of it's pennant.
> 
> Target = 2.0c* (In my opinion, do your own research)
> 
> Link
> 
> Click
> View attachment 44238
> 
> 
> View attachment 44239




Have to clear up a couple of things -

"You need to explain how you have calculated your price targets.

If it's a technical target you need to explain, in TA terms, how you arrived at that particular price target. If it's a fundamental valuation, you also need to explain your reasoning in detail.

Your price targets seem to pulled out of thin air and seem to be intended just to provoke holders."

Dear Joe,

The attached description, (44239), thoroughly explains my target method.

I highlighted in green the following line & also provided a link -

"The expected price movement is approximately equal to the distance of the move into the pattern."

Refer to the green lines on the chart. The flagpole is measured from the start of the move to the start of the pattern. This pole is then subtracted from the pattern break down point.


"Huh? Im no expert but I think you may be pulling at straws calling that a penant. The lower line is supposed to be drawn through the troughs..like in the textbook diagram that you posted. can someone with more tech knowledge confrim this?"

Dear Billyb

The text book diagram shows a 'close' line chart. My method involves the use of candlesticks.

Regards
Chalea


----------



## tothemax6

Chalea said:


> Target = 2.0c



Yes because "the price fell out of its pennant!!". 
Lets just keep a note of this and see if tech/a actually gets a win, instead of the usual incorrect prediction that disappears forgotten into the old thread pages. 

My target: nowhere near 2.0c, reason: tech/a says otherwise.


----------



## Chalea

tothemax6 said:


> Yes because "the price fell out of its pennant!!".
> Lets just keep a note of this and see if tech/a actually gets a win, instead of the usual incorrect prediction that disappears forgotten into the old thread pages.
> 
> My target: nowhere near 2.0c, reason: tech/a says otherwise.




Are you sure?
Allow me to quote...
*
"Always has alternate analysis possibilities even a fall to 2 c."*



			
				tech/a;652106 13th-August-2011 05:37 PM said:
			
		

> I see the fuss on Skyquake 's post
> 
> All analysis is valid until it fails
> When it does the analyst looks at further analysis to support price action going forward.
> 
> That's why good traders have stop losses in place.
> 
> All analysis can do is supply an entry and exit setup.
> The skill of the trader will determine performance.
> 
> *PEN*
> Always has alternate analysis possibilities even a fall to 2 c.
> Highly unlikely but nothing in trading is impossible.
> If you live long enough you'll see many impossible outliers.
> I still expect this to range to 8c now as this is strong resistance.
> The current low is also likely to be tested.
> If anyone is going to trade it then place a stop and a sell at the obvious and there you have it.
> 
> Trading isn't that hard.


----------



## Chalea

tothemax6 said:


> instead of the usual incorrect prediction that disappears forgotten into the old thread pages.




Check ALL my previous posts on this thread. I haven't forgotten them.

Have you forgotten what happened four years ago after the parabolic rise/collapse?

History appears to be repeating...


----------



## So_Cynical

Chalea said:


> It appears Silex is though...
> 
> View attachment 44235




Oh so the SLX SP has fallen so there thru...brilliant assessment, with the keen sense of financial perception that you have just displayed you must obviously work for a big bank or ratings agency.

i shall dump all my SLX stock immediately.


----------



## Chalea

So_Cynical said:


> Oh so the SLX SP has fallen so there thru...brilliant assessment, with the keen sense of financial perception that you have just displayed you must obviously work for a big bank or ratings agency.
> 
> i shall dump all my SLX stock immediately.




Heard a news report during the week.

Silex are closing their local solar panel manufacturing business.

Nuclear wasn't even mentioned...(embarrassed?)

Do you hold PEN?


----------



## Sean K

Chalea said:


> Have to clear up a couple of things -
> View attachment 44240



IMO, it's actually not a very good pennant to be basing any reliable TA forecast on. TA being probabilities means that this is probably a very tenuous call. I don't think anyone has argued the merits of the technical formation. To me, it has none.


----------



## Chalea

kennas said:


> IMO, it's actually not a very good pennant to be basing any reliable TA forecast on. TA being probabilities means that this is probably a very tenuous call. I don't think anyone has argued the merits of the technical formation. To me, it has none.




With respect, I called the MAK peak on another forum while you apparently kept holding for months/years hoping for news.

I repeat, with respect.

Please offer us your TA opinion, preferably on a chart

Regards


----------



## So_Cynical

Chalea said:


> Heard a news report during the week.
> 
> Silex are closing their local solar panel manufacturing business.




Yes i was reading that over the weekend...first time ive looked at SLX in maybe 3 years, the plant was uneconomical..apparently manufacturing in Australia is in a little trouble.



Chalea said:


> Nuclear wasn't even mentioned...(embarrassed?)




Embarrassed huh...gone straight thru to the keeper.



Chalea said:


> Do you hold PEN?




No...i have no interest at all in PEN however do not see the Nuclear industry as in decline or about to have a major reversal of fortune...Nuclear and in particular MSR technology, and Thorium has a great future.


----------



## Sean K

Chalea said:


> Please offer us your TA opinion, preferably on a chart



Sorry, I can't do any charts from this venue. What I mean is that the 'triangle' you call is tenuous. You can draw some lines that make a triangle, but there is not enough contacts on the bottom side over the length of the formation to make it have more probability. All I am saying is that your price target is based on a possibly incorrect presumption. ie, that it is a triangle on a pole. IMO, it's just not a very good triangle.


----------



## Chalea

So_Cynical said:


> No...i have no interest at all in PEN however do not see the Nuclear industry as in decline or about to have a major reversal of fortune...Nuclear and in particular MSR technology, and Thorium has a great future.




Maybe not, but those articles were posted to reinforce my view regarding the price of uranium, which is the sole driver behind price movements/the survival of uranium explorers/miners.


----------



## Chalea

kennas said:


> ...but there is not enough contacts on the bottom side over the length of the formation to make it have more probability. All I am saying is that your price target is based on a possibly incorrect presumption. ie, that it is a triangle on a pole. IMO, it's just not a very good triangle.




Fair enough. Many would require only two support touches before a breakout while I have drawn three, the last being a closing price.
Breakout wasn't ideal as it didn't occur between 50-75% of the pennant, BUT, it was confirmed by the RSI trend line break, (first touch in mid June, see earlier chart)

We shall see...

Click chart to expand


----------



## hangseng

Triangles, pics of chalea and his cat?????

PEN thread looks more like play school gone wrong and trying, yet failing misersbly at geometry.

Makes a mockery of the forum and ASF!


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Triangles, pics of chalea and his cat?????
> 
> PEN thread looks more like play school gone wrong and trying, yet failing misersbly at geometry.
> 
> Makes a mockery of the forum and ASF!




Please don't mock the triangle hangseng, as you see it is still in play...target = 

Link

Please also note today's doji candlestick is remarkably similar to the one that preceded my inaugural post on ASF.

May I also highlight that price was unable to close above the moving average.

Remember the outcry when I dared to suggest that that was bearish when viewed on the weekly chart. 

And who could forget that 5.9c is the old support/new resistance line for the weekly chart's rectangle...target = 3.5c    

Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> View attachment 44224
> 
> :fan




New week, another new low...:22_yikes:


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> New week, another new low...:22_yikes:
> 
> View attachment 44262




Pardon my ignorance, I have read elsewhere that the spot price is not particularly relevant to PEN since we are talking contracts, long term pricing.

Can someone clarify? I see PEN site displays the long term contract price of uranium.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Pardon my ignorance, I have read elsewhere that the spot price is not particularly relevant to PEN since we are talking contracts, long term pricing.




Pardon my ignorance, but is PEN a producer?
Also, wasn't the DFS meant to be released in January?...:bs:



> Can someone clarify?...long term...




Long term support for uranium is $10...
Today is D-Day for the long term momentum bearish cross over...:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Today is D-Day for the long term momentum bearish cross over...:bananasmi




For those interested in the short term, here's the 15 and 60 minute charts...

15 minute chart shows bearish divergences between price and MACD and RSI.

60 minute chart shows the MACD is about to, (unconfirmed), make a bearish cross over.

Click chart


corn:


----------



## Chalea

This chart shows -

1) The recent confirmed bearish reversal candlestick pattern, (Doji Star), and

2)  A study of the last few overbought Slow Stochastic scenarios. PEN is currently overbought...

Click to enlarge


----------



## sammy84

Chalea said:


> This chart shows -
> 
> 1) The recent confirmed bearish reversal candlestick pattern, (Doji Star), and
> 
> 2)  A study of the last few overbought Slow Stochastic scenarios. PEN is currently overbought...
> 
> Click to enlarge
> View attachment 44279




Are you actually short Pen? If so have pyramided down? Or is all this analysis for fun?


----------



## Chalea

sammy84 said:


> Are you actually short Pen?



No


> If so have pyramided down?



No


> Or is all this analysis for fun?



No

What happened to the monthly, (sometimes fortnightly LOL), Broker reports who were up until June 30 spruiking 15+c targets?

I believe the 'pump and dump' PEN chart still has more to fall, yet others are still  saying it'll hit "more than $1"

Ain't free speech grand!


----------



## notting

> Ain't free speech grand!




Sure beats Chinese propaganda!


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> Sure beats Chinese propaganda!




And Chinese water torture...

Bearish pennant support now @ 5.3c


----------



## sammy84

Chalea I'm not arguing with your analysis, in fact I have agreed with most of it, I just don't understand why your not shorting PEN based on your analysis. 

If I'm not trading a stock, or potentially going to trade it, I couldn't care less about it. I'm here to make money, not to be right or wrong.


----------



## Chalea

sammy84 said:


> ...I couldn't care less about it. I'm here to make money, not to be right or wrong.




sammy

This is my 150th ASF post. 
Believe me when I say I only intended to post once.

Regrettably I was welcomed with this -



tech/a said:


> To suggest that price respects a displaced M/A is pure lunacy...




and this -



hangseng said:


> You displayed how useless your TA was then and your constant cut and paste TA has once again been picked by astute TA posters.
> You are way out of your depth in this forum and I will enjoy watching you get cut to shreds once again by far more astute analysts.




Faced with that, who wouldn't relish the challenge of proving themselves?
How does a forum make you money?

Regards


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> Faced with that, who wouldn't relish the challenge of proving themselves?
> How does a forum make you money?




Forums are just places to exchange ideas... or better still..


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Forums are just places to exchange ideas... or better still..




I showed that to my wife and she's left me alone since. She knows how important it is for me to tell strangers how wrong they are.


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> Forums are just places to exchange ideas... or better still..




skyQuake

As soon as I'm wrong I'm gone...:

Have you got an update to this chart?


----------



## Chalea

skc said:


> She knows how important it is for me to tell strangers how wrong they are.




Is it wrong to tell strangers that it's a mistake to contact management and believe them?

:bad::bad::bad::bad::bad::bad::bad::bad::bad::bad:


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> Forums are just places to exchange ideas...




Here's an idea! 

Click chart


----------



## skc

Chalea said:


> Is it wrong to tell strangers that it's a mistake to contact management and believe them?




It's not wrong to tell them. It's probably wrong to believe that they will believe you.

You know how it is. Share price only falls when management don't communicate enough. If all CEOs respond to small retail holder emails within 30 minutes I am sure your average small spec punter will make trillions and trillions of profit.


----------



## Chalea

skc said:


> You know how it is. Share price only falls when management don't communicate enough.




Agreed! 
"Communicate" is an excellent euphemism...

What did you think of their latest PR release?

Link


----------



## skc

Chalea said:


> Agreed!
> "Communicate" is an excellent euphemism...
> 
> What did you think of their latest PR release?
> 
> Link




As I have said elsewhere on this forum, I firmly believe that the current debt crisis will be resolved imminently with the bundling up and issuing of Earth bonds. The target for Earth bonds are predominantly Martians. Perhaps the Martians will demand uranium as a security guarantee.

Actually... I suspect that some Martians have been down ramping uranium stocks....


----------



## Chalea

skc said:


> Actually... I suspect that some Martians have been down ramping uranium stocks....




Probably *Mao*rtians...:aliena:

Were you aware of the Sovereign risk associated with PEN's South African Karoo project?

"A SENIOR South African government adviser says investor worries about nationalisation of the mining industry are justified.

Sandile Noxgina, a former director-general of mines and now adviser to Mines Minister Susan Shabangu, said it would take almost a year for the African National Congress government to decide on nationalisation.

Some have played down talk of nationalisation, which is supported by the hardline ANC Youth League, but Mr Noxgina disagrees.

The concern "is justified", he said yesterday at the Africa Downunder mining conference in Perth."

Link

"Malema has no direct policy-making power but is one of the ANC's most popular politicians and has won admiration among millions of poor South Africans and alarmed investors with his calls to nationalise the mines.

Some in South Africa fear nationalisation could bankrupt the country and destroy its credibility among investors. But the idea resonates with the country's poor black majority who see it as a way to spread the wealth from a sector that grew powerful along with white-minority apartheid rule"

Link


----------



## skyQuake

An update? Why yes of course!




False break yadda yadda culminated in crack of March lows which I suspect washed out most ppl. Agree that its gonna break out soon one way or another. Would suspect *up* for gap fill at 0.068, plus the fact that the oppies are trading at fair value prices rather than discount like at 7~8c.
Vol is quite low so even if u can get borrow on it, not that tradable. PDN a better bet whatever your view is.

fwiw, I'd rather be profitable than right


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> Probably *Mao*rtians...:aliena:
> 
> Were you aware of the Sovereign risk associated with PEN's South African Karoo project?
> 
> "A SENIOR South African government adviser says investor worries about nationalisation of the mining industry are justified.
> 
> Sandile Noxgina, a former director-general of mines and now adviser to Mines Minister Susan Shabangu, said it would take almost a year for the African National Congress government to decide on nationalisation.
> 
> Some have played down talk of nationalisation, which is supported by the hardline ANC Youth League, but Mr Noxgina disagrees.
> 
> The concern "is justified", he said yesterday at the Africa Downunder mining conference in Perth."
> 
> Link
> 
> "Malema has no direct policy-making power but is one of the ANC's most popular politicians and has won admiration among millions of poor South Africans and alarmed investors with his calls to nationalise the mines.
> 
> Some in South Africa fear nationalisation could bankrupt the country and destroy its credibility among investors. But the idea resonates with the country's poor black majority who see it as a way to spread the wealth from a sector that grew powerful along with white-minority apartheid rule"
> 
> Link




I thought that whole saga is over now, but I haven't been keeping up with SA news as much.


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> Agree that its gonna break out soon one way or another.




Would you agree that historically, once PEN had a long term bearish MACD cross over and a trend line break then price fell to where the trend started, or thereabouts?

Would you agree that the 5.3c support level on the daily chart's bearish pennant is very close to the current support on the long term trend line?

Click chart


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Would you agree that the 5.3c support level on the daily chart's bearish pennant is very close to the current support on the long term trend line?
> View attachment 44331




The hourly chart shows PEN's current neutral rectangle pattern, (5.4c support, 5.8c resistance).

See chart for the two measured targets.

Given the confirming, (first time in ten days), bearish crosses and Bollinger band squeeze, I would be inclined to say the neutral pattern is about to end with a bearish break out.

Click chart to enlarge


----------



## hangseng

Ubershrewd said:


> I thought that whole saga is over now, but I haven't been keeping up with SA news as much.





His own party isn't happy with him and he is facing charges of fraud and corruption added to this.

Suffice to say if this all proceeds this zealot is finished in politics and the ridiculous issue of nationalism along with it. Eventually all zealots fall on their sword...




> "South Africa's firebrand Julius Malema loses appeal against ANC disciplinary
> Julius Malema, the embattled head of South Africa's Youth League, has lost an appeal for charges against him of sowing divisions in the ruling party to be dropped.
> 
> Mr Malema appealed on the grounds that the charges were "politically motivated" and an attempt at silencing his increasingly vehement calls for mine and bank nationalisation and forced land reform.
> 
> But the ANC's disciplinary committee ruled yesterday that he should face "trial" by senior members of the party for his misdemeanours, which included criticising President Jacob Zuma and calling for regime change in neighbouring Botswana.
> 
> It also rejected his request for several members of the committee to be removed, including Susan Shabangu, the Mining Minister who has responded unenthusiastically to Mr Malema's nationalistion call.
> 
> If found guilty of the charges, Mr Malema could be cast into the political wilderness, allowing President Zuma to run for a second term as party president in 2012 and the country's president in 2014 unhindered by a political rival backed by the influential youth leader. "
> source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ma-loses-appeal-against-ANC-disciplinary.html


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> His own party isn't happy with him...




Unlike him, his own party isn't very popular...

"In news from South Africa, last week’s riots in front of ANC headquarters in Johannesburg are fueling many questions, many fears. ANC Youth League leader, the ultra controversial Julius Malema, obviously has the ear of millions of South Africans. For the current administration in Cape Town, the days to come appear crucial.

“Who cares if a party that has failed gets a bloody nose?” This has to be what those without hope, those with not a prayer, the tens of thousands eking out existence still – it has to be their voice...

...When ANC leader Kenny Maphatsoe uttered his condemnation of rioters, calling their actions the *“seeds of civil war”* – well, the end of that sentence is clear..."

Link



> and he is facing charges of fraud and corruption added to this.




They can't afford the investigation!

"THE Public Protector has had to stall several corruption probes, including the investigations into a company linked to ANC Youth League President Julius Malema. Public Protector Thuli Madonsela confirmed that officials from her office met with the National Treasury this week to apply for R30 million in emergency funding for salaries and operational expenses for more investigators."

Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Would you agree that the 5.3c support level on the daily chart's bearish pennant is very close to the current support on the long term trend line?
> View attachment 44331




The bearish continuation pennant broke out today.

"The expected price movement is approximately equal to the distance of the move into the pattern."   

Link

Subtracting the flagpole from the breakout point gives a target of 1.9c


Click chart to enlarge


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> The bearish continuation pennant broke out today.
> 
> "The expected price movement is approximately equal to the distance of the move into the pattern."
> 
> Link
> 
> Subtracting the flagpole from the breakout point gives a target of 1.9c
> 
> 
> Click chart to enlarge
> View attachment 44377




Chalea, should we then see a surge in volume tomorrow accompanying a big SP drop?


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Chalea, should we then see a surge in volume tomorrow accompanying a big SP drop?




Ubershrewd

Check the volume after the recent bearish wedge break out...
No idea if there'll be a "big SP drop" tomorrow, unless 4.9c support is taken out...

"Downside breaks do not have the same volume requirement as their bullish counterparts. Like other bearish breaks, there often is a delayed volume surge."


----------



## tech/a

Ubershrewd said:


> Chalea, should we then see a surge in volume tomorrow accompanying a big SP drop?




I wouldn't pay too much attention to our amateur analyst
He's not that good at it.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> I wouldn't pay too much attention to our amateur analyst
> He's not that good at it.




Short memory.....Check your/my calls over the last few weeks!



tech/a said:


> If you have bought (Or bought more) at 6.5-7.3c as indicated in the technical signal at post#1544 then who cares just sit and forget.






tech/a said:


> To suggest that price respects a displaced M/A is pure lunacy.






Chalea;648790 said:


> I beg to differ...
> 
> How do you explain the emphatic almost bearish engulfing reversal candlestick this week.
> 
> Every man and his dog was calling "breakout" last week!
> 
> The bearish rising wedge has broken out instead...
> 
> Target = 4.9c approximately.
> 
> Weekly RSI didn't confirm last week's breakout, instead showing a bearish respect of it's center line.
> 
> The over bought slow stochastic confirms the wedge break out by showing a bearish signal line cross.
> 
> In my *humble* opinion...


----------



## Chalea

"Uranium spot prices to fall, says RCR

PERTH (miningweekly.com) − The uranium spot price was expected to decline over the next three to six months...

“The sector has continued to come under selling pressure over the past few months, not only on concerns of utility surplus dispositions, but broader equity market concerns as well, in particular the economic outlook for the US and sovereign debt issues in Europe,” said RCR MD John Wilson.

*...RCR predicted that the spot price for uranium could trade as low as $45.95/lb*..."

Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Would you agree that historically, once PEN had a long term bearish MACD cross over and a trend line break then price fell to where the trend started, or thereabouts?
> 
> Would you agree that the 5.3c support level on the daily chart's bearish pennant is very close to the current support on the long term trend line?
> 
> Click chart
> View attachment 44331




Zoom in for a clearer view of the long term trend line's current support level @ *5.1c*

Click chart to expand


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;656878 Yesterday 06:02 PM said:
			
		

> The bearish continuation pennant broke out today.
> 
> Subtracting the flagpole from the breakout point gives a target of 1.9c
> 
> View attachment 44377





Bearish MACD cross overs are a regular occurrence.

It appears that another one is "imminent"...

Chart will expand if clicked...


corn:


----------



## Ubershrewd

I think tomorrow brings a good day for PEN. This is based on analysis of my gut feeling, surely can't beat that.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> I think tomorrow brings a good day for PEN. This is based on analysis of my gut feeling, surely can't beat that.




Bearish Slow Stochastic cross over late yesterday on the hourly chart...


----------



## alexc2005

Chalea said:


> Bearish Slow Stochastic cross over late yesterday on the hourly chart...
> 
> View attachment 44402




Are these charts actually any good?

or is it purely coincidence?

I tend to think if tech/a is critical of the charting method then there is flaws in it...

But seems to be right? I dunno..


----------



## $20shoes

alexc2005 said:


> Are these charts actually any good?
> 
> or is it purely coincidence?
> 
> I tend to think if tech/a is critical of the charting method then there is flaws in it...
> 
> But seems to be right? I dunno..




The problem with this analysis is that it's proven in hindsight. It's a lagging indicator that simply shows the closing price over a specified price range which is then smoothed. Though, we're oscillators can come in handy is showing divergence. 
The indicator should not be used as the leading tool in this example. The indicator is waiting for the next price action before it can plot it's next point. It indicates where the price HAS BEEN relative to its range.


----------



## Chalea

$20shoes said:


> The problem with this analysis is that it's proven in hindsight. It's a lagging indicator that simply shows the closing price over a specified price range which is then smoothed. Though, we're oscillators can come in handy is showing divergence.
> The indicator should not be used as the leading tool in this example. The indicator is waiting for the next price action before it can plot it's next point. It indicates where the price HAS BEEN relative to its range.
> View attachment 44403




Hello $20shoes

There is no problem with this analysis because there was no analysis, purely a statement of fact!

Do you remember our previous interaction? It included some basic analysis. Note the date -



			
				Chalea;648657 29th-July-2011 05:08 PM  said:
			
		

> If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped






			
				$20shoes;648710 29th-July-2011 09:08 PM said:
			
		

> If the price falls resulting in the MACD crossing down through it's signal line on Monday there will literally be no influence at all on the share price. Buyers and sellers will say look at your MAs, remark "how cute" and continue exchanging parcels of shares at fair value for any given moment in time.




And here's the chart -


----------



## Chalea

alexc2005 said:


> Are these charts actually any good?
> 
> or is it purely coincidence?
> 
> I tend to think if tech/a is critical of the charting method then there is flaws in it...
> 
> But seems to be right? I dunno..




Hello alexc2005

I would have thought that entering the debate @ 8.2c, calling for 4.9c and achieving it was more than coincidence...:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "Uranium spot prices to fall, says RCR...
> 
> *...RCR predicted that the spot price for uranium could trade as low as $45.95/lb*..."
> 
> Link




"Recent rally in spot uranium prices may have stalled, analysts say"...

Link


----------



## $20shoes

Chalea said:


> Hello $20shoes
> 
> There is no problem with this analysis because there was no analysis, purely a statement of fact!
> 
> Do you remember our previous interaction? It included some basic analysis. Note the date -




Of course! That one MA crossed another had no influence on the SP. That the SP had an effect on your squiggly lines - that i accept.


----------



## Chalea

$20shoes said:


> Of course! That one MA crossed another had no influence on the SP. That the SP had an effect on your squiggly lines - that i accept.




Traders sell, lines cross, many more traders sell, where's the DFS?


----------



## tech/a

Nothing is happening here other than lack of demand.
Sellers *ARENT* rushing to sell in droves because this or that indicator shows this has happened.
If that *WAS SO* youd see a discernible rise in volume following an event---simply--*YOU DONT*

This is all the analysis you need.

The real analysis is at turns.
(I think you'll see mine was at 12 c).

*There it is #1004 post and #1128*

That ll sort the kiddies out!

*CLICK TO ENLARGE.*





See you back here when it shows signs of pulling up.
That will be high volume exhaustion I suspect.
OR a longer drawn out period of nothing.
For a really boring DOG it gets a lot of bandwidth!


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> This is all the analysis you need.




Look for a long term bullish divergence confirmed by a bullish MACD center line cross, (the time to buy)...
Will take a while...

Until then it's just a lower Bollinger band hugging downtrend...

Click


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Nothing is happening here other than lack of demand.



Downtrend?


> Sellers *ARENT* rushing to sell in droves because this or that indicator shows this has happened.



Agreed, price is still falling though...


> If that *WAS SO* youd see a discernible rise in volume following an event---simply--*YOU DONT*



YOU DID! - Fukushima - see chart below...
Check the 07/08 crash...Not much volume but it still hit one cent...


> See you back here when it shows signs of pulling up.



Not likely...


> That will be high volume exhaustion I suspect.
> OR a longer drawn out period of nothing.



Or a repeat of 07/08...zzzzzzzz


> For a really boring DOG it gets a lot of bandwidth!



Agreed. Do you believe PEN management should answer questions re the 'DFS in Jan 11' statement?
Many would have bought because of it...still waiting...:bad::bad::bad::bad::bad:


----------



## Chalea

:error::error::error:







Chalea said:


> Zoom in for a clearer view of the long term trend line's current support level @ *5.1c*
> View attachment 44392




The long term trend line support was in fact @ *5.15c*:whip

Which means the uptrend has ended...:emp:

Click chart...


:iagree:


----------



## TheAbyss

Chalea said:


> :error::error::error:
> 
> The long term trend line support was in fact @ *5.15c*:whip
> 
> Which means the uptrend has ended...:emp:
> 
> Click chart...
> View attachment 44425
> 
> :iagree:




You do realise that PEN is behaving no different to a raft of other stocks at the moment? I think you could overlay your lines onto most stocks as we are on the slope towards some pretty decent falls.

What chance you apply your charts to XJO, DOW, SP 500 and work out when the XJO will hit 3500 or will it hit 3100?. There are a lot more important things going on in world financial markets that matter a whole lot more than this stock.

If you must continue your one man war v PEN perhaps you can explain your total dedication (which is quite impressive) to alerting forums across the nation against having anything to do with PEN.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;656487 4th-September-2011 05:46 PM said:
			
		

> The hourly chart shows PEN's current neutral rectangle pattern, (5.4c support, 5.8c resistance).
> See chart for the two measured targets.
> Given the confirming, (first time in ten days), bearish crosses and Bollinger band squeeze, I would be inclined to say the neutral pattern is about to end with a bearish break out.
> View attachment 44355




The short term hourly chart shows two patterns with two possible targets.

Bollinger band squeeze means a trend is about to start.

Although the indicators again confirm, this week the MACD hasn't crossed, (has only turned down), so the signal isn't as strong as last Sunday.

However, the same set up occurred two Tuesdays ago, (circled), with bearish results.

*That said, I'm leaning towards the 4.8c short term target.*

_Note - if 4.8c doesn't hold, then a repeat of the price action into the rectangle, (from the previous Friday's 5.8c peak), wouldn't surprise, giving a target of... 

5.0 - (5.8 - 5.0) = 4.2c _


Click chart


corn:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;648657 29th-July-2011 05:08 PM said:
			
		

> If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped
> View attachment 44405




Another Monday MACD bearish cross...

Short term target = 4.2c (yesterday's chart)

Gap @ 4.0c, click chart


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> The long term trend line support was in fact @ *5.15c*:whip
> 
> Which means the uptrend has ended...:emp:
> 
> Click chart...
> View attachment 44425
> 
> :iagree:




Hi Chalea....Your trendline looks highly suspicious of my "Trend line C" from a little while ago....Interesting how your trendline differenturates from "BigCharts" (of this trendline in near future) which shows my low as possibly being around mid 4 cent mark. Guess it really depends on chart display

I note I depicted a break in downtrend of the lower highs in Spot Price of U308 a little while ago. Yourself displayed a downtrendline projecting rather highly above lower highs with plenty of air underneath on chart. An update of your vision of this chart would be pleasantly appreciated.

Chalea.....Any T/A views by yourself would be much applauded by me. I have recently looked back to view some projections on this forum of PEN moving forward earlier in the year which failed to achieve higher highs.....Now that it appears(IMO) we are in capitulation mode,  it is only so right for your views to be taken with due praise as to why you may feel lower lows are upon us.


PS I have noted by Tech/A ASX further falls possibly is upon us.


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Downtrend?




I have just viewed "AussieBulls.Com"

They have a "Buy Confirmed" recommendation on PEN.

PS Very commendable to yourself Chalea on replies to everyone on this forum and your commitment to regular updates on the status of PEN. I note you have stated you shall leave when the downtrend has broken...... Why?....If you feel your presence here is to keep folk honest solely for the sake of it, then why not stay and comment (in your opinion) on an uptrend till it is showing signs of being broken?


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Chalea.....Any T/A views by yourself would be much applauded by me.




Thank you Karlos ...



> I note I depicted a break in downtrend of the lower highs in Spot Price of U308 a little while ago. Yourself displayed a downtrendline projecting rather highly above lower highs with plenty of air underneath on chart. An update of your vision of this chart would be pleasantly appreciated.




With pleasure...the downtrend appears to be intact...






> I have recently looked back to view some projections on this forum of PEN moving forward earlier in the year which failed to achieve higher highs.....Now that it appears(IMO) we are in capitulation mode,  it is only so right for your views to be taken with due praise as to why you may feel lower lows are upon us.




Please note my signature. I humbly believe PEN is currently three stages before capitulation mode...


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> I have just viewed "AussieBulls.Com"
> They have a "Buy Confirmed" recommendation on PEN.




I wonder if today's BEARISH ENGULFING pattern will alter that recommendation Karlos?



> PS Very commendable to yourself Chalea on replies to everyone on this forum and your commitment to regular updates on the status of PEN. I note you have stated you shall leave when the downtrend has broken...... Why?....If you feel your presence here is to keep folk honest solely for the sake of it, then why not stay and comment (in your opinion) on an uptrend till it is showing signs of being broken?




This stock will take many months to pull out of it's recent pump/dump & form a base prior to a meaningful uptrend. The multiple long term charts posted here back that up.

I will update them "imminently"...

PS...Please remember that once support is broken it is common for that level to be tested and confirmed as resistance, ie 5.0c

Regards


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> ...the downtrend appears to be intact...
> View attachment 44502




Always pays to check the big picture...
:iagree:

Downtrend @ $66


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> I have just viewed "AussieBulls.Com"
> They have a "Buy Confirmed" recommendation on PEN.




Not any more...:shake:





Again, refer to the longer term...




corn:


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> ...Guess it really depends on chart display
> Chalea.....Any T/A views by yourself would be much applauded by me.




Karlos
"High points and low points appear to line up better for trend lines when prices are displayed using a semi-log scale. *This is especially true when long-term trend lines are being drawn or when there is a large change in price*"  
ie 1200%  Link

Timing is everything...click here
Nine months ago PEN announced their DFS was due in January, bs...which pumped the SP through 6c resistance to 15.5c

Last weekend I announced that the long term uptrend had ended...click here

Lo and behold, the very next trading day PEN announce their aborted DFS...

IMO, this announcement confirms my uptrend break - see chart below

The new "Expanded DFS" will be released "as soon as completed"...

When will that be? :dunno:..._imminently?_







			
				hangseng;648018 26th-July-2011 12:42 PM  said:
			
		

> All I know now is that PEN is, very soon, about to announce argueably the most important anouncement apart from the Permit to Mine.
> 
> Charts or no charts, the DFS and decision to mine will come out. it is now 12 days since I was told PEN was planing to have the DFS out within 10 -15 days.
> 
> This may. or may not put a rocket up the sp. However I truly expect the announcement to be very positive and maybe even include something unexpected.
> _"A $15,000,000 share placement to USA based NuCore Energy at a Premium to
> VWAP.  The 10 day VWAP pricing period commences after the release of the Lance Project DFS.
> 
> The Placement is priced at a 50% premium to the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) in the period immediately following publication of the Company’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) source: PEN announcement"_
> 
> *At the current price Nucore will pay 11.5c per PEN share*....what will the final price actually be?
> In the meantime the charts provide some light entertainment....as you were...




Question..."what will the final price actually be?"

Answer... Updated charts will be posted "as soon as completed"...


----------



## Chalea

hangseng;648018 26th-July-2011 12:42 PM  said:
			
		

> Charts or no charts, the DFS and decision to mine will come out. it is now 12 days since I was told PEN was planing to have the DFS out within 10 -15 days.
> 
> _"A  share placement to USA based NuCore Energy at a Premium to
> VWAP.  The 10 day VWAP pricing period commences after the release of the Lance Project DFS.
> 
> The Placement is priced at a 50% premium to the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) in the period immediately following publication of the Company’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) source: PEN announcement"_
> 
> *At the current price Nucore will pay 11.5c per PEN share*....what will the final price actually be?




*"what will the final price actually be"?*

Seeing as PEN is going with an "Expanded DFS", will the NuCore $15,000,000 deal's fine-print need expanding? 

The weekly chart has the closer target of *3.5c*, (first mentioned here), so I'll stick with it for now...

"Bearish rectangles appear in downtrends and typically resolve themselves to the downside. 
If the rectangle is large, the expected price movement is approximately equal to the height of the rectangle." Link

3.5c is in the middle of the 3-4c Support Zone, underneath the 15/10/10 unfilled gap @ 4.0c

"There is an old saying that the market abhors a vacuum and all gaps will be filled." Link




The daily chart's bearish continuation pennant's  target, (first mentioned here), still stands, but for now I'd call it more of a capitulation target...
:iagree:

"Bearish pennants appear in the middle of large drops or immediately after a stock has broken down from a substantial rally.
The price action prior to the pennant formation can be used as a guide in predicting the price movement when the stock breaks down."...Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Always pays to check the big picture... Downtrend @ $66
> View attachment 44506




Here's the weekly uranium chart with it's long term analysis...Link




Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator: Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices :bad:

Momentum Indicator: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. :bad:

Rate of change Indicator: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. :bad:

MACD Indicator: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. :bad:

Volume Indicator: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. :bad:

Stochastic: The long term trend is DOWN. :bad:

Remember James Dines' Aug. 18, 2011 quote? 

*"…Totally despised uranium stocks should make at least a temporary low in the next few weeks, believe the unbelievable or not."*

Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Were you aware of the Sovereign risk associated with PEN's South African Karoo project?
> "A SENIOR South African government adviser says investor worries about nationalisation of the mining industry are justified.
> Sandile Noxgina, a former director-general of mines and now adviser to Mines Minister Susan Shabangu, said it would take almost a year for the African National Congress government to decide on nationalisation.
> Some have played down talk of nationalisation, which is supported by the hardline ANC Youth League, but Mr Noxgina disagrees.
> The concern "is justified", he said yesterday at the Africa Downunder mining conference in Perth."
> Link
> "Malema has no direct policy-making power but is one of the ANC's most popular politicians and has won admiration among millions of poor South Africans and alarmed investors with his calls to nationalise the mines.
> Some in South Africa fear nationalisation could bankrupt the country and destroy its credibility among investors. But the idea resonates with the country's poor black majority who see it as a way to spread the wealth from a sector that grew powerful along with white-minority apartheid rule"
> Link




Big week for Julius Malema coming up...

"Next week he could tear apart South Africa's ruling party, possibly bringing about the downfall of the president Jacob Zuma, in a battle for the soul of the nation which could ripple through the continent and beyond.

In the days before they fell out, Zuma described him as a future president of South Africa. But now the populist firebrand – *who has won wide support among the poor with his calls to nationalise the mines and seize white-owned land* – is to appear before the ANC's disciplinary committee charged with bringing the party into disrepute.

Zuma's authority is on the line. If he fails, the nation which has so successfully made a peaceful transition from white to black rule could be plunged into political chaos.

Malema is a throwback to the worst stereotypes of African leaders. He is charismatic, populist and reckless. He has fits of temper, will not tolerate dissent and manipulates elections. He is shamelessly racist. He defends the human rights record of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe..."

Link


----------



## tech/a

Hangseng 
You'd be in the *RED* now or very close to it by my calcs


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> Big week for Julius Malema coming up...




Big week for Julius Malema coming up...

"...Julius Malema, the fiery and powerful leader of the African National Congress party's youth league, may have gone too far when he said he also would work to overthrow the president of neighboring Botswana.

Malema is now appearing before an ongoing party disciplinary committee on charges of violating the party constitution, bringing the ANC into disrepute and sowing division in its ranks."

17/09/2011
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/17/julius-malema-south-africa_n_967665.html 

Two sides to every coin Chalea.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> "Malema is now appearing before an ongoing party disciplinary committee on charges of violating the party constitution, bringing the ANC into disrepute and sowing division in its ranks."
> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/17/julius-malema-south-africa_n_967665.html




Did you read the whole article Ubershrewd?

"In a recent interview, Zuma told The Star newspaper that he does not think Malema should be expelled from the ANC.
"The job of the ANC is to help Malema, to mold him into a dynamic, good leader," the president said.
Only if that failed, Zuma said, should one ask: "What do we do with him?""

IMO there'll be anarchy if he's kicked out of the ANC...

"In news from South Africa, last week’s riots in front of ANC headquarters in Johannesburg are fueling many questions, many fears. ANC Youth League leader, the ultra controversial Julius Malema, obviously has the ear of millions of South Africans. For the current administration in Cape Town, the days to come appear crucial.

...When ANC leader Kenny Maphatsoe uttered his condemnation of rioters, calling their actions the *“seeds of civil war”* – well, the end of that sentence is clear..."

Link


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/17/julius-malema-south-africa_n_967665.html




Regarding 'The Huffington Post', it seems the Fukushima catastrophe is bringing American celebrities out of the woodwork against nuclear power...
(Peninsula Energy Limited (PEN) is an ASX listed mineral exploration company with Uranium projects located in *Wyoming USA,* South Africa and Western Australia)

"The Big Lie of "Clean" Nuclear - Fascinating and heartbreaking how the Japanese civilian population, once again, has been called upon to teach us a harsh lesson about nuclear energy...

...I had written two pieces deconstructing the bizarre claims of the nuclear power industry. *The incessant lie that nuclear is clean power, forever discounting the filthy and contaminating processes that mine, refine and enrich fissionable material for utility reactors.* 

Although we must never set aside other factors such as vulnerability to terrorism and the lingering and unsolved issue of waste disposal, the Big Lie regarding "clean nuke" hype seems to trouble me most. You can't get many Americans to view a wind farm as a sign of our investment in a clean, safe energy future, but they seem to roll over and let the nuke industry do as they please, even in the wake of Fukushima...

...Nukes are a similar bet. And there is no "protection" you can put on to save you. Fukushima shows us that utility companies reap all of the benefits, while we assume all of the risks."

Link


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Hangseng
> You'd be in the *RED* now or very close to it by my calcs




Hello tech/a

With respect, have your views changed since the post below and if so, 'where to from here'?

Regards



			
				tech/a;647264 22nd-July-2011 01:57 PM  said:
			
		

> If you have bought (Or bought more) at 6.5-7.3c as indicated in the technical signal at post#1544 then who cares just sit and forget.


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> Did you read the whole article Ubershrewd?
> 
> "In a recent interview, Zuma told The Star newspaper that he does not think Malema should be expelled from the ANC.
> "The job of the ANC is to help Malema, to mold him into a dynamic, good leader," the president said.
> Only if that failed, Zuma said, should one ask: "What do we do with him?""
> 
> IMO there'll be anarchy if he's kicked out of the ANC...
> 
> "In news from South Africa, last week’s riots in front of ANC headquarters in Johannesburg are fueling many questions, many fears. ANC Youth League leader, the ultra controversial Julius Malema, obviously has the ear of millions of South Africans. For the current administration in Cape Town, the days to come appear crucial.
> 
> ...When ANC leader Kenny Maphatsoe uttered his condemnation of rioters, calling their actions the *“seeds of civil war”* – well, the end of that sentence is clear..."
> 
> Link




"Some, including Zuma, have suggested Malema has the makings of a future president. But when his name was put up last year on a party list for national legislators, Malema turned it down, saying he might consider it in another 10 years." 

From the sound of that he will be waiting a while.

Since I don't want to feel like a broken record, as some in here must surely feel, I'll c/p a piece I wrote for another forum. I still feel the same.

"'a royal beating'
Understatement imo. I cannot wait for this to be over. This has been a PUBLIC EXECUTION by the media; absolutely disgraceful. Forget the gargantuan wall of water that destroyed half the coast, no no, it was the Fukushima nuclear reactor. How many lives did the tsunami claim? 25000. How many lives were lost to radiation exposure? 0. It's an insult to the poor people involved when reporters don't have the decency to set aside their preposterous crap and continue to instill fear. I'm about to build myself up to an ALL CAPS RAGE. 

"Amazingly, despite the devastation of the site, there have been no radiation-related deaths at Fukushima so far, and only two workers have been hospitalised as a precaution.

The only people to have perished at Fukushima were a man who became trapped in the console of a crane during the earthquake and two who were swept away by the tsunami. The entire toll from the earthquake, remember, is estimated at about 25,000."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/radiation-activists-and-other-hazards/story-e6frg6zo-1226044176093"


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> "Some, including Zuma, have suggested Malema has the makings of a future president. But when his name was put up last year on a party list for national legislators, Malema turned it down, saying he might consider it in another 10 years."
> 
> From the sound of that he will be waiting a while.




You're missing the point Ubershrewd...:nono::nono::nono:

He and millions of others wants the mines nationalised!.. 
He doesn't want/need to be President...

"A SENIOR South African government adviser says investor worries about nationalisation of the mining industry are justified.

Sandile Noxgina, a former director-general of mines and now adviser to Mines Minister Susan Shabangu, said it would take almost a year for the *African National Congress government to decide on nationalisation.*

Some have played down talk of nationalisation, which is supported by the hardline ANC Youth League, but Mr Noxgina disagrees.

The concern "is justified", he said yesterday at the Africa Downunder mining conference in Perth."

Link


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> How many lives were lost to radiation exposure? 0.





So far...come back in 5,10,20 years! Remember Hiroshima?

"*Fukushima radioactive caesium leaks ‘equal 168 Hiroshimas’*

...This means that “radioactive events” usually do not initially kill people. But some of those particles do indeed land in the wrong place at the wrong time, and subsequently can cause cancer or birth defects in human beings.

...Both the Japanese and US governments have told citizens “not to worry,” because there is supposedly no IMMEDIATE danger of the Fukushima radioactive fallout. This false assurance combined with the five months that have passed since Fukushima means that the average world citizen has forgotten all about the potential effects of the catastrophe.

However, the amount of radiation Fukushima has released into the Northern Hemisphere is not something to be written off, and it must be taken seriously."

Link


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> So far...come back in 5,10,20 years! Remember Hiroshima?
> 
> "*Fukushima radioactive caesium leaks ‘equal 168 Hiroshimas’*
> 
> ...This means that “radioactive events” usually do not initially kill people. But some of those particles do indeed land in the wrong place at the wrong time, and subsequently can cause cancer or birth defects in human beings.
> 
> ...Both the Japanese and US governments have told citizens “not to worry,” because there is supposedly no IMMEDIATE danger of the Fukushima radioactive fallout. This false assurance combined with the five months that have passed since Fukushima means that the average world citizen has forgotten all about the potential effects of the catastrophe.
> 
> However, the amount of radiation Fukushima has released into the Northern Hemisphere is not something to be written off, and it must be taken seriously."
> 
> Link
> 
> View attachment 44551




I bet we have 10 times more people die or have their quality of life affected by air polution in sydney over the next 12 months than will be affected by fukushima leaks in the next 30years.


----------



## Chalea

Tysonboss1 said:


> I bet we have 10 times more people die or have their quality of life affected by air polution in sydney over the next 12 months than will be affected by fukushima leaks in the next 30years.




At least we can live in our homes...

"Over 100,000 Fukushima Prefecture residents can't return to hometowns"

Link


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> "*Fukushima radioactive caesium leaks ‘equal 168 Hiroshimas’*
> 
> ]




the characteristics of caesium makes it not overly bad as far as radioactive sources go, 

1 , firstly there was hardly any released.
2 , It is water soluable, so it will become more and more dilute.
3 , any amount that is some how ingested will not accumulate in any one area of the body and it will be readily passed within hours.

the iodine compound that also had a small release is worse, However it has a very short half life and would already be so weak it would not be even detectable any more.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> At least we can live in our homes...
> 
> "Over 100,000 Fukushima Prefecture residents can't return to hometowns"
> 
> Link




yes we can, But only because we don't care about exposing ourselves to a toxic gas that kills 1000 people each year in sydney.

what the difference between cancer causing toxic gas and cancer causing radiation, except for the fact the radiation word inspires fear, 

If your worried about radiation from nuclear plants, you should be more worried about air polution and sunlight, because those 2 are much bigger killers.


----------



## Tysonboss1

it never ceases to amaze me,

People will live in and around Coal fired power plants that spew tonnes of cancer causing gas and coal dust from surrounding coal mining and crushing operations and they don't complain.

Mention a nuclear plant though and it just seems to inspire fear, regardless of the facts.


----------



## Chalea

Tysonboss1 said:


> the characteristics of caesium makes it not overly bad as far as radioactive sources go




Still rather be in Sydney...

"Eerie echoes of Chernobyl: Inside Fukushima's nuclear ghost town abandoned by people fleeing the fallout"

Link

Any thoughts on PEN's chart?


----------



## Chalea

Tysonboss1 said:


> Mention a nuclear plant though and it just seems to inspire fear, regardless of the facts.




Heard of thorium?

"What if we could build a nuclear reactor that offered no possibility of a meltdown, generated its power inexpensively, created no weapons-grade by-products, and burnt up existing high-level waste as well as old nuclear weapon stockpiles? And what if the waste produced by such a reactor was radioactive for a mere few hundred years rather than tens of thousands? It may sound too good to be true, but such a reactor is indeed possible, and a number of teams around the world are now working to make it a reality. What makes this incredible reactor so different is its fuel source: thorium."

Link
:goodnight


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> Still rather be in Sydney...
> 
> "Eerie echoes of Chernobyl: Inside Fukushima's nuclear ghost town abandoned by people fleeing the fallout"
> 
> Link
> 
> Any thoughts on PEN's chart?




So would most people, it does defy logic though. 

So far the biggest concentration of cesium found in only six times the legal limit to be present in food for human consumption. 

And that would have already been diluted close to back ground levels by now.

Six times the legal limit is nothing, you could be exposed to that for a year and it wouldn't have an effect,


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> what the difference between cancer causing toxic gas and cancer causing radiation, except for the fact the radiation word inspires fear,
> 
> If your worried about radiation from nuclear plants, you should be more worried about air polution and sunlight, because those 2 are much bigger killers.



Indeed, this graph is always a good visualization:
http://xkcd.com/radiation/


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> Heard of thorium?
> 
> "What if we could build a nuclear reactor that offered no possibility of a meltdown, generated its power inexpensively, created no weapons-grade by-products, and burnt up existing high-level waste as well as old nuclear weapon stockpiles? And what if the waste produced by such a reactor was radioactive for a mere few hundred years rather than tens of thousands? It may sound too good to be true, but such a reactor is indeed possible, and a number of teams around the world are now working to make it a reality. What makes this incredible reactor so different is its fuel source: thorium."
> 
> Link
> :goodnight






That's all well and good,

But why fear munger people about a technology that is so safe, when there is an elephant in the room that will cause disease and early death in 25 out of every 1000 people that live in Sydney, and that's not if some worst case 1 in a million disaster happens, that just if everything runs smoothly year in year out.


----------



## So_Cynical

Chalea said:


> ...Both the Japanese and US governments have told citizens “not to worry,” because there is supposedly no IMMEDIATE danger of the Fukushima radioactive fallout. This false assurance combined with the five months that have passed since Fukushima means that the average world citizen has forgotten all about the potential effects of the catastrophe.
> 
> However, the amount of radiation Fukushima has released into the Northern Hemisphere is not something to be written off, and it must be taken seriously."




Amazing how there was this leak of radiation without a containment vessel breach...fallout without an actual substantial fallout producing event.


----------



## Chalea

Tysonboss1 said:


> But why fear munger people about a technology that is so safe...




Safe?...LOL!!!

"*Solar Flare Could Unleash Nuclear Holocaust Across Planet Earth, Forcing Hundreds of Nuclear Power Plants Into Total Meltdowns*

...By relying on nuclear power, we are risking everything. And we're doing it blindly, with no real acknowledgement of the dangers of running 700+ nuclear facilities in a constant state of "near meltdown" while foolishly relying on the steady flow of electricity to keep the fuel rods cool. If Fukushima, all by itself, could unleash a tidal wave of deadly radiation all by itself, imagine a world where hundreds of nuclear facilities go into a total meltdown simultaneously."

Link


----------



## Tysonboss1

tothemax6 said:


> Indeed, this graph is always a good visualization:
> http://xkcd.com/radiation/




That's a good chart, certainly puts things in perspective. 

Another interesting fact, 1 pack of cigarettes has more radio active material inside than the alleged contaminated meat that made headlines around the world. ( yes, both cigarettes and cigarette smoke contain radio active polonium which is a natural element that is absorbed and accumulated by the tabacco plant from the soil)


----------



## Tysonboss1

Tidal wave of radiation??? your dramatizing. 

Never let the facts get in the way of a good yarn do you?


----------



## Chalea

Tysonboss1 said:


> Tidal wave of radiation??? your dramatizing.
> Never let the facts get in the way of a good yarn do you?




I didn't write it...click on the link provided


----------



## Tysonboss1

That article is written by an idiot with no experience.


----------



## Karlos68

Tysonboss1 said:


> Tidal wave of radiation??? your dramatizing.
> 
> Never let the facts get in the way of a good yarn do you?




Hahahahaha,,,,,,,yes my friend.....a good yarn it is.

THE MYTH--FUKUSHIMA, was done and dusted on the Share Price charts a week and a half after the event.......
If anyone says "Ummmm, I just dont get it Karlos.....Uuuummmmm....how can it be?"

Look at the charts....place a thumb over the preceeding week of Fukushima on Price and Volume........afterwards the downtrend continues and know one would even know otherwise. Fukushima is solely market noise for the media.
Check my A,B,C trendlines I mentioned a little while ago. On Bigcharts.com it shows a potential low of around mid 4 cents.
IMO-- Fuku has only had an impact resulting in a temporary excess supply.


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> At least we can live in our homes...
> 
> "Over 100,000 Fukushima Prefecture residents can't return to hometowns"
> 
> Link




With all due respect my friend Chalea......My master of charts instructs myself to ignore market noise.......The Charts Speak Louder Than Words:southpark


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> The Charts Speak Louder Than Words




I agree, did you see this?


----------



## kythan06

http://www.brr.com.au/event/86669/gus-simpson-executive-chairman

Wonder what Gus has too say this morning.

Should be interesting.


----------



## Ubershrewd

Spot price looking strong. Break out imo, currently 53.76


----------



## Chalea

:error::error::error::error::error::error:


Ubershrewd said:


> Spot price looking strong. Break out imo, currently 53.76





Hate to burst your bubble....


----------



## Chalea

kythan06 said:


> Wonder what Gus has too say this morning.




Did he say that if 4.6c support fails on the bearish continuation rectangle then your short term target is -

*4.6 - (5.0 - 4.6) = 4.2c*



corn:


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> I have just viewed "AussieBulls.Com"
> They have a "Buy Confirmed" recommendation on PEN.
> PS Very commendable to yourself Chalea on replies to everyone on this forum and your commitment to regular updates on the status of PEN.




Seen this Karlos?


----------



## tothemax6

A black opening marubozu? 
<sigh>.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> THE MYTH--FUKUSHIMA, was done and dusted on the Share Price charts a week and a half after the event.......
> 
> IMO-- Fuku has only had an impact resulting in a temporary excess supply.




Hello Karlos

Did you see this article from PEN's US state Wyoming?

"...The post-Fukushima spot price of yellowcake has slightly recovered, but Pool said the accident is hitting forecasts hard as some countries are choosing to move away from nuclear energy.

“We’re going to lose potentially 35 million pounds a year, almost 20 percent of our current requirements,” he said. “*This really dampens down the outlook for future growth of the uranium industry ”” it set us back four or five years*.”

...Those advocates will push a move away from nuclear energy and work to slow down the permitting process for new projects."... 

Link

*Question - * As the DFS release now depends on favorable market conditions, will we have to wait another "four or five years" for it's release?...:crap:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Did he say that if 4.6c support fails on the bearish continuation rectangle then your short term target is -
> 
> *4.6 - (5.0 - 4.6) = 4.2c*
> 
> View attachment 44566
> 
> corn:




Target hit, gap still not filled...



corn:


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Hello Karlos
> 
> Did you see this article from PEN's US state Wyoming?
> 
> "...The post-Fukushima spot price of yellowcake has slightly recovered, but Pool said the accident is hitting forecasts hard as some countries are choosing to move away from nuclear energy.
> 
> “We’re going to lose potentially 35 million pounds a year, almost 20 percent of our current requirements,” he said. “*This really dampens down the outlook for future growth of the uranium industry ”” it set us back four or five years*.”
> 
> ...Those advocates will push a move away from nuclear energy and work to slow down the permitting process for new projects."...
> 
> Link
> 
> *Question - * As the DFS release now depends on favorable market conditions, will we have to wait another "four or five years" for it's release?...:crap:




You honestly dont expect me to take this 'market noise' article seriously Chalea? 
Take a look at the title of the article......"Fukushima nuclear disaster COULD hinder Wyoming projects".

Even reading it......"COULD spell trouble"......"COULD mean a slowdown"

May strike fear into the small town folk of Wyoming but not this Kiwi from NZ.

Is it Jeremy Fugglesberg who is riding the bucking bronco horse at the top of the article. Maybe after hes finished wooing the hot crountry lasses of America, fire him an email to inform him that his comment "some countries are choosing to move away from nuclear" is actually minor to most countries forging ahead with their development in Nuclear Energy.

PS Some friendly advice Chalea, try avoiding these hick town scaremongering articles written by some hillbilly


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Is it Jeremy Fugglesberg who is riding the bucking bronco horse at the top of the article. Maybe after hes finished wooing the hot crountry lasses of America, fire him an email to inform him that his comment "some countries are choosing to move away from nuclear" is actually minor to most countries forging ahead with their development in Nuclear Energy.
> 
> PS Some friendly advice Chalea, try avoiding these hick town scaremongering articles written by some hillbilly




Au contraire Karlos!

Tom Pool is no hick hillbilly, rather, he is "chairman of Colorado-based International Nuclear Inc. He spoke at the U2011 Uranium Symposium and Trade Show in Casper on Monday."

"He says as a result there could be a slowdown in the global growth of the nuclear power industry. That could mean lower demand for yellowcake mined in Wyoming.

The Casper Star-Tribune reports that Pool says the future growth of the uranium industry could be set back four or five years."

Link

P.S.  Is this the 'trend line' you keep referring to? 
Your "On Bigcharts.com it shows a potential low of around mid 4 cents" call didn't work out...did you mean 4.0c?


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea, from the annual report, the top 20 holders have collectively increased their holdings in this company, by several million. Some may have decreased their holdings.

These groups/individuals have a much greater interest in the stock than you and i, and i daresay they are also more aware of the risks and the potential (or not) of PEN. Do you think they are making the wrong decision by continuing to accumulate in these conditions?

Not to bait, I'm genuinely interested to hear your opinion on what those top shareholders may be considering, because it would seem many of them are not expecting the extremely bearish outlook you hold.

  you seem to hit the targets you set for the SP in the short term. I'll give you credit for that. Still don't agree with the LT though.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Chalea, from the annual report, the top 20 holders have collectively increased their holdings in this company, by several million. Some may have decreased their holdings.
> 
> These groups/individuals have a much greater interest in the stock than you and i, and i daresay they are also more aware of the risks and the potential (or not) of PEN. Do you think they are making the wrong decision by continuing to accumulate in these conditions?
> 
> Not to bait, I'm genuinely interested to hear your opinion on what those top shareholders may be considering, because it would seem many of them are not expecting the extremely bearish outlook you hold.





Ubershrewd

They may be reading other forums/broker reports with 80-100c valuations...:nono::nono::nono:

You talk about top shareholders. What's the latest from the heavily spruiked NuCore & the fabled 11.5c/share buy-in?   Link
Plenty of other uranium PRODUCERS have been ravaged by Fukushima & must be tempting...
PEN has extended their DFS indefinitely. Will they stay?
How will the market react if they don't?



> you seem to hit the targets you set for the SP in the short term. I'll give you credit for that. Still don't agree with the LT though.




Yes, and the sun 'seems' to rise every day in the east...:

Would you agree that historically, when PEN breaks an uptrend it falls back to where the trend started from?
Click on the chart...



:iagree:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> The Casper Star-Tribune reports that Pool says the future growth of the uranium industry could be set back four or five years."




More sentiment sapping bad news...:crap:

Typhoon targets Fukushima nuclear plant
September 21, 2011, 9:23 AM

A typhoon has struck Japan and is moving northeastward across the Tokyo region towards the crippled nuclear plant in earthquake and tsunami ravaged Fukushima prefecture.

The BBC reports more than a million people were told to leave their homes as Typhoon Roke approached landfall.

“…pools of radioactive water remain at the Fukushima nuclear site, and there is concern that a heavy downpour could cause them to overflow into the sea or groundwater,” the BBC reported.


Link


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Measured relative to what?
> Mind you 3.5 is certainly possible--- even lower






			
				Chalea;647902 25th-July-2011 09:48 PM  said:
			
		

> Measured relative to what?
> Relative to the distance between current support & resistance
> Target if 6.0 support fails = 6.0 - (8.5 - 6.0) = 3.5c (approximately)




Well that's the 4.0c gap filled & close enough to "3.5c (approximately)" hit...:thankyou:

Not surprised really after this week's BRR...:shake:

Capitulation?.. :nono:..."True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines." Link

Volume today... 11,799,469 / 2,114,880,000

Those hoping for a RSI quadruple bullish divergence will be saddened to hear that the RSI has broken support...:crap:



corn:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Well that's the 4.0c gap filled & close enough to "3.5c (approximately)" hit...:thankyou:





Deja vu anyone?

PEN hit the low threes four years ago before bouncing...


----------



## tech/a

Sensible stops mean you limit losses.
As I've advocated through out this thread and many others.
Once you move your stop to B/E your risk is only brokerage.

To watch a massive profit fall from 16c now to 4c is un forgivable 
To average down is plain stupid as H/S has.

This thread should be a reference for all traders.
It shows candidly just about every poor trading practice that could be imagined.


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> P.S.  Is this the 'trend line' you keep referring to?
> Your "On Bigcharts.com it shows a potential low of around mid 4 cents" call didn't work out...did you mean 4.0c?
> 
> View attachment 44589




I have just had a quick squizz at some various charts.

Trendline C I have just viewed does touch 4 cents on ASB Securities daily and Big Charts Weekly. Lowest version of trendline I can find. I have grave concerns my observations will have to be thrown out the window as I have just viewed Bloomberg and Euro markets are tanking.....bugger....I only hope in the next few weeks you dont say to me Chalea "Whose the man now.......Whose your new God Karlos.....Bet you just want to be like me aye Karlos......blah blah blah"

Trendline still not broken yet Chalea so lets just wait till the fat lady sings


----------



## theartglasshouse

Hope it goes lower...which it will. Good buying at this level and definitely good to top up at these levels. My


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> ...To average down is plain stupid as H/S has.
> 
> This thread should be a reference for all traders.
> It shows candidly just about every poor trading practice that could be imagined.




With respect, your instructions were crystal clear...



			
				tech/a;647264 22nd-July-2011 01:57 PM said:
			
		

> If you have bought (Or bought more) at 6.5-7.3c as indicated in the technical signal at post#1544 then who cares just sit and forget...


----------



## tech/a

For those interested # 1510

And then



> Originally Posted by tech/a
> Double bottom
> Where I'd be buying and where I'd have a *stop*.
> Soaking up the Sun in Venice currently so will have to be a call for the record only.
> Sporting a mediterrainian tan I might add----RED.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> ......blah blah blah...Trendline still not broken yet Chalea




Wasn't a trend line but anyway...where's your new 'line in the sand' Karlos?

2.8c?... see chart


----------



## Karlos68

:rocketwho







Chalea said:


> Wasn't a trend line but anyway...where's your new 'line in the sand' Karlos?
> 
> 2.8c?... see chart
> 
> View attachment 44626




You were just waiting werent you Chalea:fan



.........Ive been open in my view to provide an observation which I feel is valid and you could just not wait to gain some satisfaction to deflame my contribution I did note HS mentioned a mate sold at 15 cent and brought back at 6 cent. My thoughts to reassess the charts showed the 15 cent sell had probabilities of being predicted due to trendlines that were already in place. 6 cent buy appeared as I had once said the indicators were turning and continued for some. 
Considering the dismal market perfomance today I thought PEN held well. PEN appears to not wish to let go of my view of the Trendline C which I feel is valid.

PS Even thou I thought you were a new good friend and I am open minded to your judgement......I still wish you well......Have a good weekend


----------



## Chalea

...where's your new 'line in the sand' Karlos?...2.8c?





Karlos68 said:


> You were just waiting werent you Chalea




Always waiting & eager to discuss PEN/uranium Karlos! 

What did you think of Monday's BRR? Link

Slightly different to this summery...






*"...where's your new 'line in the sand' Karlos?...2.8c?"*

Not an unreasonable question...I mean, that's the level of the May '09 placement.

How's this for a scenario? You may bookmark it for future reference...

Price falls to 1.9c, (see chart below). 
Extended DFS released, (once Fukushima is forgotten/uranium hits $40). 
NuCore pays their $15M @ 50% premium, (1.9c + 50% = 2.8c).
NuCore receives *535,714,285* shares.
PEN announce a 10:1 consolidation, flushing out speculators...:flush:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;656249 2nd-September-2011 10:20 PM  said:
			
		

> Were you aware of the Sovereign risk associated with PEN's South African Karoo project?
> "A SENIOR South African government adviser says investor worries about nationalisation of the mining industry are justified.
> Sandile Noxgina, a former director-general of mines and now adviser to Mines Minister Susan Shabangu, said it would take almost a year for the African National Congress government to decide on nationalisation.
> Some have played down talk of nationalisation, which is supported by the hardline ANC Youth League, but Mr Noxgina disagrees.
> The concern "is justified", he said yesterday at the Africa Downunder mining conference in Perth."
> 
> Link




_*ANC mulls legislation to supersede mining contracts – official.               23rd September 2011 *_

JOHANNESBRURG – South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) wants to forge an economy in which its natural resources best serve the country, says the head of the party’s task team formed to study a proposal to nationalise mines.

National needs could take precedence over mining companies’ desire to export so that the country’s coal, iron-ore and other mineral reserves benefit the continent’s biggest economy, Enoch Godongwana said in an inter- view in Johannesburg.

South Africa’s policies should be guided by the extent to which we can use our resources to achieve a number of goals, among them growth and redistribution, Godongwana said.

“Legislation that supersedes any contract you have to ensure the assets meet the country’s needs is an option,” he said. “In certain circumstances, national interest must prevail.”

...The ANC’s Youth League and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, the country’s largest labor grouping and a party ally, say that *the ANC will adopt nationalisation as a policy at its national conference next year, and is only looking into the details of how best to do it. The study was agreed to after repeated demands by the youth wing, which is led by the 30-year-old Julius Malema.

The ANC Youth League’s campaign to wrest mine ownership from what it calls a white capitalist elite has caused “an uneasiness from investors, particularly from outside South Africa”...*

Link

:microwave


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;653007 18th-August-2011 04:29 PM  said:
			
		

> It's a descending triangle continuation pattern with a $40 target...
> View attachment 44114




Uranium chart showing $55 support now resistance line & the updated $40 targeting descending triangle...


----------



## tech/a

Loaded up on a few at .044
Stop .035


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> Loaded up on a few at .044
> Stop .035




Care to post a graph, tech/a?

That's a pretty wide stop. Plenty of resistance at 5c then 6c.. is the R:R worth it? I'd imagine you would move the stop up soon as the SP itself stops moving.


----------



## tech/a

Just a little low risk setup I use when it appears.
Was actually filled at .043c


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Wasn't a trend line but anyway...where's your new 'line in the sand' Karlos?
> 
> 2.8c?... see chart




Hello my friend Chalea

I still stand that my trendline C is 4 cent low......bugger that it did happen to dip just under.......looking flash today aye mate:bananasmi.....in fact, a few u308 stocks are...big volume too

Indicators at this point have not broken to the upside but if you wish to say "Gee Karlos, i wish I was like you, I bet you have chicks dripping off ya, Can I be ya best friend, can I be................"

Then dont hold back buddy, I do accept apologies for criticism of my views:bier:


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Seen this Karlos?
> 
> View attachment 44567




We could banter Aussie Bulls every few days Chalea

See today Aussie Bulls has a Buy Confirmed

Also up 18.92%:bananasmi.........Not bad for one day I reckon


----------



## alexc2005

tech/a said:


> Just a little low risk setup I use when it appears.
> Was actually filled at .043c
> View attachment 44680
> 
> 
> View attachment 44681




Here i was thinking you were a bit crazy.

PEN looks to open about 9% up.

Bloody hell, i needs me some tech/a skillz.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Also up 18.92%:bananasmi.........Not bad for one day I reckon




PEN is nothing more than a day-trader's play thing.
This move up is a *'Dead Cat Bounce'*



The broken uptrend line may be retested before the recent 8.3c - 3.6c crash resumes...
Where's the DFS?...


----------



## againsthegrain

Techa as usual right on the money not sure about all the other white noise


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> This move up is a *'Dead Cat Bounce'*
> The broken uptrend line may be retested before the recent 8.3c - 3.6c crash resumes...
> Where's the DFS?...




Overhead resistance...:bricks1::bricks1::bricks1:



corn:


----------



## Tysonboss1

Terra Power,

Possibly never having to mine uranium again, Good stuff.

.


----------



## tech/a

alexc2005 said:


> Here i was thinking you were a bit crazy.
> 
> PEN looks to open about 9% up.
> 
> Bloody hell, i needs me some tech/a skillz.




*Tradings not that hard* 

There is a vast chasm between theorists and traders.
Theorists get off on being right even if its in their own mind.
Traders get off on accepting the challenge of Trading and turning a profit.

One is a gunna and the other a doer.
Simply traders look for opportunity with the lowest possible risk.
*PEN* is a working example---for me and those following as of yesterday.

Today the stop has been moved to yesterdays buy price..
Risk is now Zero. ($5 E/W ) Brokerage.

I have no idea where it will go.As time goes on I will be able to make decisions about holding or selling.But right now Im set with a very low risk trade.If It moves against me---on with the next trade.

*SEE THE DIFFERENCE?*


----------



## alexc2005

tech/a said:


> *Tradings not that hard*
> 
> There is a vast chasm between theorists and traders.
> Theorists get off on being right even if its in their own mind.
> Traders get off on accepting the challenge of Trading and turning a profit.
> 
> One is a gunna and the other a doer.
> Simply traders look for opportunity with the lowest possible risk.
> *PEN* is a working example---for me and those following as of yesterday.
> 
> Today the stop has been moved to yesterdays buy price..
> Risk is now Zero. ($5 E/W ) Brokerage.
> 
> I have no idea where it will go.As time goes on I will be able to make decisions about holding or selling.But right now Im set with a very low risk trade.If It moves against me---on with the next trade.
> 
> *SEE THE DIFFERENCE?*




Yeah, i see. 

Being a Trader means having the balls to act on a decision.

Seems you have it down pat.

Hopefully one day i will too


----------



## tech/a

alexc2005 said:


> Yeah, i see.
> 
> Being a Trader means having the balls to act on a decision.
> 
> Seems you have it down pat.
> 
> Hopefully one day i will too




Once your at B/E then its a no brainer.
Dont need any Kahuna's for that!


----------



## alexc2005

tech/a said:


> Once your at B/E then its a no brainer.
> Dont need any Kahuna's for that!




Correct, but that first trade took balls.

Now that you have a very secure position, you are quite fine.

Do you continuously adjust your stop loss point as the price goes up?

E.g. yesterday it was 3.5c, when you bought at 4.3c.

Today your stop loss is 4.3c, share price is 4.9c, will you up S/L to say 4.8c?


----------



## tech/a

alexc2005 said:


> Correct, but that first trade took balls.




I didnt think so.
The gap out of the blocks was strong and it wasnt headed.
The index was surging forward so next day up was highly likely.



> Now that you have a very secure position, you are quite fine.
> 
> Do you continuously adjust your stop loss point as the price goes up?




No thats it now unless the price SPIKES UP---then I will place a tight trailing stop.
Other than that just keep an eye on it at tests of support or resistance.



> E.g. yesterday it was 3.5c, when you bought at 4.3c.
> 
> Today your stop loss is 4.3c, share price is 4.9c, will you up S/L to say 4.8c?




As above.


----------



## alexc2005

tech/a said:


> I didnt think so.
> The gap out of the blocks was strong and it wasnt headed.
> The index was surging forward so next day up was highly likely.
> 
> 
> 
> No thats it now unless the price SPIKES UP---then I will place a tight trailing stop.
> Other than that just keep an eye on it at tests of support or resistance.
> 
> 
> 
> As above.




So what do you aim for in terms of profit. you're sitting just under 10% at the moment.

At which point do you call it quits? When the charts indicate a reversal? Or do you get to a profit margin goal and bail out?


----------



## tech/a

I have no idea from trade to trade what I will end up with in profit.
My exit will be governed by chart analysis.

*PEN* I consider to be a potential 50-80% gainer.There is a wealth of resistance 7.3-8.3c so thats the likely exit area. Now 50% on any investment/trade is fine--well I think!.

On the flip side it could very well do a classic reversal and flop dismally.
Dont care! Will cost me $10 to find out.
Opportunity-----Im in front of it--it will succeed or fail.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> PEN is nothing more than a day-trader's play thing.
> This move up is a *'Dead Cat Bounce'*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The broken uptrend line may be retested before the recent 8.3c - 3.6c crash resumes...
> Where's the DFS?...




*Permit* me to highlight that following the January '08 trend-break the day/swing traders rode PEN from 2.4c to 3.5c before jumping off.


----------



## alexc2005

tech/a said:


> I have no idea from trade to trade what I will end up with in profit.
> My exit will be governed by chart analysis.
> 
> *PEN* I consider to be a potential 50-80% gainer.There is a wealth of resistance 7.3-8.3c so thats the likely exit area. Now 50% on any investment/trade is fine--well I think!.
> 
> On the flip side it could very well do a classic reversal and flop dismally.
> Dont care! Will cost me $10 to find out.
> Opportunity-----Im in front of it--it will succeed or fail.




I'm curious what you think of sites such as aussie bulls from a charts analysis point of view?


----------



## Chalea

alexc2005 said:


> I'm curious what you think of sites such as aussie bulls from a charts analysis point of view?




Weekly, (longer term), analysis is sticking with it's 53 day old SELL call!

"Do not bother with further buying or short selling this as long as the WAIT tag stays."


----------



## tech/a

alexc2005 said:


> I'm curious what you think of sites such as aussie bulls from a charts analysis point of view?




Dont bother with any such sites.
Do it myself.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> PEN is nothing more than a day-trader's play thing.
> This move up is a *'Dead Cat Bounce'*
> 
> 
> 
> The broken uptrend line may be retested before the recent 8.3c - 3.6c crash resumes...
> Where's the DFS?...




You only have to go back one month to see the same process in action...

Two day rise off it's low. 
DOJI, (indecision).
Hits previous support/now resistance line.
Unable to close above the moving average.
Anaemic volume.
Bullish MACD crossover...
The rest is history...


----------



## Ubershrewd

Thanks for the insight tech/a. Keep us informed with how your trade goes.


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> Terra Power,
> 
> Possibly never having to mine uranium again, Good stuff.



Yeah I've been a fan of the traveling wave reactor for a while - it will be a fantastic reactor design if it can be made to work.
However it won't result in no more uranium mining. Increasing efficiency of energy generation actually increases fuel consumption, since it lowers the price of energy, thus stimulating industries to use even more energy (as substitutes for more labour, more efficiency r&d etc). There was a similar situation in England during the industrial revolution, when it was theorized that the increasing steam engine efficiency would lower coal consumption and spare England's coal reserves. Of course the reducing of the marginal energy costs fueled even more industrial expansion.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> How many lives were lost to radiation exposure? 0. It's an insult to the poor people involved when reporters don't have the decency to set aside their preposterous crap and continue to instill fear.






Chalea said:


> So far...come back in 5,10,20 years! Remember Hiroshima?
> 
> "*Fukushima radioactive caesium leaks ‘equal 168 Hiroshimas’*
> ...This means that “radioactive events” usually do not initially kill people. But some of those particles do indeed land in the wrong place at the wrong time, and subsequently can cause cancer or birth defects in human beings.
> ...Both the Japanese and US governments have told citizens “not to worry,” because there is supposedly no IMMEDIATE danger of the Fukushima radioactive fallout. This false assurance combined with the five months that have passed since Fukushima means that the average world citizen has forgotten all about the potential effects of the catastrophe." Link




"...government and industry schemers attack these truths as unfounded scare-mongering. 

...Fukushima’s nuclear disaster is a nightmare. Ghostly releases of radioactivity haunt the Japanese countryside. Lives, once safe, are now beset by an ineffable scourge promising vile illness and death.

*Large sectors of the population are accumulating significant levels of internal contamination, setting the stage for a public health tragedy.*

A subtle increase in the number of miscarriages and fetal deaths will be the first manifestation that something is amiss. An elevated incidence of birth defects will begin in the Fall and continue into the indefinite future. Thyroid diseases, cardiac diseases and elevated rates of infant and childhood leukemia will follow. Over the next decade and beyond, cancer rates will soar.

...By undertaking a national campaign to honestly document the disaster that is engulfing them, they can  lead all of humanity to break through the quagmire of deception and deceit that has allowed nuclear weapons and reactors to flourish. Truth finally has an opportunity to triumph over falsehood. In some small but significant way, this would be fitting repayment for the malevolence of *Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Fukushima.*"

Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> You only have to go back one month to see the same process in action...




Chart shows the last five Slow Stochastic bearish cross-overs from current levels...



:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Chart shows the last five Slow Stochastic bearish cross-overs from current levels...
> View attachment 44722




So that's the sixth overbought Slow Stochastic bearish cross-over for this chart.

History shows that the next target is the lower Bollinger band, currently @ 3.8c




:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

My PEN trade stopped at B/E


----------



## Chalea

Uranium Contract Prices Slip

Unlike the uranium spot market, which in recent weeks has been dominated by traders and hedge funds on both sides of the price, the uranium term market more represents legitimate supply deals between producers and utilities and is thus more representative of ongoing longer term uranium demand.

Term uranium prices slipped initially after the Fukushima disaster but for many weeks prices have remained stable in a quiet market while spot traders have battled back and forth around the significant US$50/lb level in somewhat of a vacuum of uncertainty with respect to uranium's future. *Last week, however, those stable term prices finally gave way.
*
Industry consultant TradeTech's mid-term price indicator has fallen US$1.00 to US$55.00/lb and* TradeTechs' long-term price indicator has fallen US$2.00 to US$63.00/lb. The price falls may not be large but they are nevertheless significant in a market now dominated by the collapse of Japanese demand.*

The falls come in a week when the spot price once again found itself under pressure, and in which traders and hedge funds were the dominant players on both the buy and sell sides. Producers and utilities have largely moved to the sidelines.

TradeTech's weekly spot price indicator has fallen US$1.00 to provide an end-September price of US$52.00/lb. While that price is encouragingly US$2.75 above the end-August price, spot uranium traded as high as US$54.50/lb intra-week during the month.

TradeTech notes the uranium market has historically been well insulated from the immediate global economic cycle, given the long term nature of “real” supply contracts informing speculative spot deals. The mood has changed, however, with the consultant suggesting, “The thin and illiquid nature of the spot uranium market means that even the slightest shift in supply or demand can directly impact on price, which was evident during September”. 

Link

:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> ...Fukushima’s nuclear disaster is a nightmare. Ghostly releases of radioactivity haunt the Japanese countryside. Lives, once safe, are now beset by an ineffable scourge promising vile illness and death...Link






> *A fallen dream*
> 
> *Nuclear power is no magic solution, argues Pervez Hoodbhoy it's not safe, or cheap, and it leads to weapons programmes.*
> 
> [SNIP]
> 
> *But then Fukushima came along. The disaster's global psychological impact exceeded Chernobyl's, and left a world that's now unsure if nuclear electricity is the answer.*
> 
> [SNIP]
> 
> The plume of radiation reached as far as Canada. *Closer, it was far worse. Japan knows that swathes of its territory will be contaminated, perhaps uninhabitable, for the rest of the century.*




Link


----------



## barney

Chalea said:


> [
> 
> :bananasmi





For some reason that Dancing Banana grates on me : .......  

He looks like a banana "smoothy" at the moment, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him get "peeled" big time at some point over the next 12-18 months  

AND ..... I suspect he should have a "green" skin


----------



## tothemax6

Chalea said:


> The plume of radiation reached as far as Canada. *Closer, it was far worse. Japan knows that swathes of its territory will be contaminated, perhaps uninhabitable, for the rest of the century.*



Yes, Fukushima came along and now humans no longer want energy supplies.

Back in reality, of course, anyone who knows anything about humans and their hunger for energy knows that nuclear power will continue on its path regardless of the incident at Fukushima. 
And the statement 'Japan knows that swathes of its territory will be contaminated, perhaps uninhabitable, for the rest of the century' is hysterics only.


----------



## Tysonboss1

tothemax6 said:


> However it won't result in no more uranium mining. Increasing efficiency of energy generation actually increases fuel consumption, since it lowers the price of energy, thus stimulating industries to use even more energy (as substitutes for more labour, more efficiency r&d etc). There was a similar situation in England during the industrial revolution, when it was theorized that the increasing steam engine efficiency would lower coal consumption and spare England's coal reserves. Of course the reducing of the marginal energy costs fueled even more industrial expansion.




Yeah, I aggree. Especially because the current installed capacity of nuke plants will continue operating using virgin uranium for many years.

It is thought provoking that the current waste uranium could power the world for more than 200 years, there would have to be a lull in demand eventually as traditional plants shut down or convert to the new design.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> *A fallen dream*
> 
> *Nuclear power is no magic solution, argues Pervez Hoodbhoy it's not safe, or cheap, and it leads to weapons programmes.*
> 
> 
> View attachment 44761




Hi Chalea,

What is you view on the future of nuclear if the next generation type reacters such as the terra power type become a reality.

I myself see it as inevitible and that nuclear power in its current form is just a stepping stone to these next generation series of technolgies.

Just in regards to our previous discussion, just over 100 people have died in sydney from diseases related to our current carbon based fuels since we spoke a couple of months back, hundreds of others living severly reduced quality of life due to illness.


----------



## Chalea

Tysonboss1 said:


> Just in regards to our previous discussion, just over 100 people have died in sydney from diseases related to our current carbon based fuels since we spoke a couple of months back, hundreds of others living severly reduced quality of life due to illness.




Tysonboss1

What % of your 100 people had an underlying illness or were old? 100?




> *Thyroid gland irregularities found in young evacuees from Fukushima*
> 
> NAGANO (Kyodo) -- Hormonal and other irregularities were detected in the thyroid glands of 10 out of 130 children evacuated from Fukushima Prefecture, a Nagano Prefecture-based charity dedicated to aid for the victims of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident said Tuesday.
> 
> [SNIP]
> 
> *Radioactive iodine tends to get lodged in children's thyroid glands more than those of adults, placing youngsters at greater risk of developing disorders and diseases including cancer.*




Link


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> Tysonboss1
> 
> What % of your 100 people had an underlying illness or were old? 100?




Not old, No underlying illness, about a 1000 people a year in sydney alone get sick and die because of diseases directly related to air pollution. Offcourse this does not include the countless people who are alreadsy frail with age or other conditions (asthma) who's life is shortened or made worse by air pollution,

The point I was making was the other energy alternatives to nuclear are also having a giant impact that dwarfs anything nuclear has caused.

Did you know 3300 people died mining coal last year in china alone.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Air Pollution effects on children's lung development.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Who would have thought, air pollution also causes heart disease.


----------



## tothemax6

Yes, but Tysonboss, you are forgetting that nuclear is intrinsically _evil_.
It creates mutants, godzillas, and makes things glow green. Hence, everything else is fine, as long as it is not nuclear.


----------



## notting

Intrinsically evil?
That is an utterly a mindless statement.
Evil is that which creates suffering. 
Global warming has the potential to create far more suffering than Heroshima and the odd nuclear disaster.
The pros and cons need to be weighed in the light of rational thought not mindless emotionally charged irrational statements.
There is so much energy and heat in the core of this earth it seems insane that we have not yet perfected a way to harmlessly use that! 
Blame the oil companies for they were the ones that deliberately chose to create culture of doubt about the cause of climate change.


----------



## Tysonboss1

notting said:


> Intrinsically evil?
> That is an utterly a mindless statement.




I am pretty sure he made that comment in jest.


----------



## Tysonboss1

notting said:


> The pros and cons need to be weighed in the light of rational thought not mindless emotionally charged irrational statements.
> There is so much energy and heat in the core of this earth it seems insane that we have not yet perfected a way to harmlessly use that!
> Blame the oil companies for they were the ones that deliberately chose to create culture of doubt about the cause of climate change.




Yes all true,

And given the roughly 40 years we have to cut co2 release to zero we need all hands on deck.

We need more of everything, we need more technologies that use energy more efficiently.

We need to capture carbon from coal plants,

We need to roll out Solar, wind, Hydro and geothermal as fast as we can,

and we need to get the work done to bring on the next generation of nuclear technology and deploy them to replace Coal fired plants.


----------



## barney

notting said:


> There is so much energy and heat in the core of this earth it seems insane that we have not yet perfected a way to harmlessly use that!





Its an interesting concept and does sound good in principle, however ......   

I wonder if the Expansion and Contraction caused by the removal and transfer/radiation of large amounts of heat, being artificially engineered and taking place under the earths crust etc. might cause some unwanted side effects (tectonic plates). Perhaps thats why the technology has not been advanced at this stage?


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> *But then Fukushima came along. The disaster's global psychological impact exceeded Chernobyl's, and left a world that's now unsure if nuclear electricity is the answer.*







> *Nuclear energy after Fukushima*
> 
> The environmental disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant this spring is creating a new global divide over the safety of nuclear energy. Sharply differing responses to Fukushima from the world’s wealthiest and poorest nations will bring diminished safety for all.
> 
> [SNIP]
> 
> *But developing countries with little nuclear experience and spotty industrial safety records are moving ahead with ambitious plans to expand generating capacity. China and India — after pausing briefly to review safety arrangements — are adding about 80 new reactors over the next two decades. (The United States has 104 of the 436 reactors worldwide.)
> 
> India’s expanding use of electricity obtained from enriched uranium — an essential ingredient in building nuclear weapons — is certain to spur Pakistan’s already well-established atomic ambitions, at a time when many see Iran’s nuclear research program as a prelude to a triangular nuclear arms race involving Israel and Arab states that covet nuclear power.*
> 
> *In short, the proliferation of nuclear reactors across Asia is certain to facilitate and encourage nuclear weapons proliferation as well.*
> 
> [SNIP]
> 
> *The calamity at Fukushima spread fears of radiation poisoning around the world* — even though all but one or two of the estimated 14,000 deaths were thought to have been caused by the earthquake and tsunami that triggered the reactor meltdowns.
> 
> [SNIP]
> 
> But the nuclear world has changed dramatically in the past six months. The administration needs to recognize and act on the reality that Fukushima — like Chernobyl in its day — issued a summons to new thinking.




Link

:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> The environmental disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant this spring is creating a new global divide over the safety of nuclear energy.




Insider: Iran Will Be 'Next Chernobyl'

There is a "great likelihood" that the Bushehr reactor could generate the next nuclear catastrophe after Chernobyl or Fukushima, says the document, which has been passed to The (London) Times by a reputable source and is attributed to a former member of the legal department of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

It claims that Bushehr, which began operating last month after 35 years of intermittent construction, was built by "second-class engineers" who bolted together Russian and German technologies from different eras; that it sits in one of the world's most seismically active areas but could not withstand a major earthquake; and that it has "no serious training program" for staff or a contingency plan for accidents....

Link

:microwave


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> View attachment 44648




Time to update the daily 'patterns' chart...

*Another* bearish pennant is forming confirming the 2.0c approximate target. Breakout will confirm...

Click chart to enlarge


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> *Another* bearish pennant is forming confirming the 2.0c approximate target. Breakout will confirm...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 44833




The weekly chart shows a bearish continuation rectangle pattern.
Using the previously successful measuring method, (click here), the same "2.0c approximate target" is shown...

Click chart to enlarge


----------



## tothemax6

notting said:


> Intrinsically evil?
> That is an utterly a mindless statement.





Tysonboss1 said:


> I am pretty sure he made that comment in jest.



Yes tone can be hard to convey in a post, but my references to godzilla should have been a giveaway.


----------



## Ubershrewd

tothemax6 said:


> Yes, but Tysonboss, you are forgetting that nuclear is intrinsically _evil_.
> It creates mutants, godzillas, and makes things glow green. Hence, everything else is fine, as long as it is not nuclear.




That would make Homer Simpson redundant..how blasphemous!


----------



## Ubershrewd

http://mg.co.za/article/2011-10-07-r1trillion-nuclear-tender-bidding-war


"The energy department submitted its nuclear tender proposal to the Cabinet last month, and Energy Minister Dipuo Peters has been quoted as saying it will finalise the proposal before the end of this year. Bidding will begin next year.

Dwarfing the arms deal, which is worth a mere R70-billion, the contract could account for as much as 20% of the world's total nuclear spending over the next two decades. 


Five companies -- from France, China, South Korea, Russia and a joint United States-Japanese consortium -- are in the running.

All the bidders are desperate for a slice of the action and so are the construction companies, tenderpreneurs, lobbyists, agents and the middlemen who invariably orbit around a deal of such magnitude. "

Sounds good.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> The weekly chart shows a bearish continuation rectangle pattern.
> Using the previously successful measuring method, (click here), the same "2.0c approximate target" is shown...
> View attachment 44834




"confirmed breakout"

...of the bearish rising wedge   

Measured target = 3.4c


----------



## theartglasshouse

How long should we wait for chalea???

I need to top up and at that price it is drool worthy, although your lower price posted many 228 posts ago in this thread has left me stumped 

Can you do me another chart???


----------



## tothemax6

Lol, still waiting for that 2.0c .
There are two dimensions on a chart, and two in a prediction you know - price and time. _When_ will it be at 2.0c? 1 day, 1 month, 1 year?


----------



## theartglasshouse

It better be in a week or 6 weeks after that...I just saw a Flavio Poli piece listed in auction that will wipe me out till the 15th of November...:


----------



## Chalea

tothemax6 said:


> Lol, still waiting for that 2.0c .
> There are two dimensions on a chart, and two in a prediction you know - price and time. _When_ will it be at 2.0c? 1 day, 1 month, 1 year?




When will uranium stop falling? Where is the DFS? NuCore placement? Karoo updates? 



:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> When will uranium stop falling?




How long until Fukushima is forgotten?

"It's more than seven months since the nuclear meltdowns at Fukushima and thousands of evacuees are coming to the realisation that they'll never be able to go home.

There are many radioactive hot-spots around the nuclear plant - some with radiation levels comparable with the zone around Chernobyl...

...(sound of Geiger counter screeching)

"The radiation level here is so high that some of the Geiger counters can't measure it""

Link

:bananasmi


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> How long until Fukushima is forgotten?
> 
> "It's more than seven months since the nuclear meltdowns at Fukushima and thousands of evacuees are coming to the realisation that they'll never be able to go home.
> 
> There are many radioactive hot-spots around the nuclear plant - some with radiation levels comparable with the zone around Chernobyl...
> 
> ...(sound of Geiger counter screeching)
> 
> "The radiation level here is so high that some of the Geiger counters can't measure it""
> 
> Link
> 
> :bananasmi




Yes, but Chernobyl didn't stop nuclear power and I'm guessing neither will Fukushima.

It'll be back to the drawing board sort of stuff , Plants will be designed with more safety controlls , even earth quake proofed if thats possible, but demand for cheap power is not going to dissapear, so what are the alternatives...?

There are a lot of unloved uranium miners trading at, or close to the bottom of their ranges right now, I'm not saying they're a good trade today, but for some, who don't mind taking a few years view with funds to spare, could pay off well when the time comes to act..

Personally, if the situation arose and it felt right I wouldn't mind dipping a toe into PEN around 3 ....just my oppinion though..


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> Yes, but Chernobyl didn't stop nuclear power and I'm guessing neither will Fukushima.




Back in 06/07 when uranium was being pumped on the forums you would frequently read words to the effect of, 'hope there's not another Three Mile Island/Chernobyl', well they got it!
Nuclear power may not stop for now but uranium's sentiment has been smashed.






> It'll be back to the drawing board sort of stuff , Plants will be designed with more safety controlls , even earth quake proofed if thats possible, but demand for cheap power is not going to dissapear, so what are the alternatives...?




Nuclear plants are prohibitively expensive. Yanks are patching up their 40 year old reactors & are hoping for the best... 



> There are a lot of unloved uranium miners trading at, or close to the bottom of their ranges right now, I'm not saying they're a good trade today, but for some, who don't mind taking a few years view with funds to spare, could pay off well when the time comes to act..




ERA, PDN...who else? PEN can't produce a DFS let alone uranium. Not to worry, the believers insist it'll hit $1 in five years, though not on this forum...


----------



## Chalea

tothemax6 said:


> Lol, still waiting for that 2.0c .
> There are two dimensions on a chart, and two in a prediction you know - price and time. _When_ will it be at 2.0c? 1 day, 1 month, 1 year?




Many months if not years, as mentioned here...

PEN has just broken it's LONG TERM uptrend line.

Check the MACD line's rate of descent since the recent bearish cross-over.

Negative momentum is still increasing, (MACD Histogram).

The next bearish signal will be a center-line cross-over which will no doubt coincide with the next move down...  

Check the chart. The blue line is PEN now & the same stage historically.

It takes at least a year to bottom from this point using history and basic TA as a guide...

I'm sure NuCore are aware of this...




:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> When will uranium stop falling?




Uranium chart update...

*The daily chart sees a bearish MACD cross-over & the RSI falling back below 50 on increasing volume...*:crap:


> Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:...The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower        prices...

> Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:...Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The market trend has changed direction. Now the market trend is DOWN! 

> Volume Indicator:...The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility. 

> ADX Indicator: ...a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling. 

> DMI Indicator:...DMI signals a bearish trade when the DMI+crosses below the DMI-, as it has here. 

> MACD Indicator: MACD has issued a bearish signal. A bearish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses below the SlowMA, as it has here. 

> Momentum Indicator:...The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is in bearish territory. 

> Rate of change Indicator:...The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is in bearish territory.

Link



corn:


----------



## Chalea

tothemax6 said:


> Yes, but Tysonboss, you are forgetting that nuclear is intrinsically _evil_. It creates mutants, godzillas...




_I beg to differ..._

"Godzilla-like creature ”natural phenomenon”, says TEPCO chairman

Fukushima, Japan, April 22, 2011 – The large, Godzilla-like aquatic creature that has appeared off the coast of Fukushima, Japan, was described by Tokyo Electric Power Co. chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata as a ”purely natural phenomenon” entirely unconnected to the ongoing crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. His assessment was subsequently confirmed by Japanese governmental authorities."

Link


----------



## tech/a

> When will uranium stop falling?




About now.



> Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices...




Are derived from these lower prices.

Now we have restored some sanity Ill click the ignore button again as I cant stand the rants.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> About now.




So your advice is to buy on the sell signal?


----------



## Miner

PEN along with all uranium shares is taking its pain and the Board is too scared to publish the Feasibility Study. Agreed.

My query if uranium has now totally a untouchable commodity why BHPB has decided to invest so massively in Olympic Dam ? The real reasons we will probably never know unless there is some one from BHPB discloses it. But the fact (before Japan Accident) was BHPB was buying uranium at spot price to meet their uranium commitment. Probably some thing reverse is happening in uranium market .

If that is so, then the turning point is coming back for PEN and others. Good luck to holders and thanks to Chartists.


----------



## Ubershrewd

The DFS is late, but other aspects of permitting are flying ahead. This little stock isn't a speccy for nothing, risk and return Chalea. You have chosen to not buy the stock and inform us of the downside to buying it, thanks for your efforts.

Can I ask, if the DFS miraculously appears in the coming weeks, and contains very good news, will you take the point of view of shareholders and support the stock's upside? Or are you too morally bound against nuclear. Or do you think nuclear is doomed either way.:star:


----------



## tothemax6

Chalea said:


> _I beg to differ..._
> 
> "Godzilla-like creature ”natural phenomenon”, says TEPCO chairman
> 
> Fukushima, Japan, April 22, 2011 – The large, Godzilla-like aquatic creature that has appeared off the coast of Fukushima, Japan, was described by Tokyo Electric Power Co. chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata as a ”purely natural phenomenon” entirely unconnected to the ongoing crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. His assessment was subsequently confirmed by Japanese governmental authorities."



Sounds very 'Onion'-esque


----------



## namrog

Chalea, Is there a price at which you would be interested in buying PEN..?

You also failed to point out that your chart in post 2090, shows that since november 03, we have had a series of higher highs and higher lows , and I could be wrong but I'd be surprised if that trend didn't continue ,going by clues in the tails of the recent candles...I guess we will know in a few months / years .....!


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> ...the Board is too scared to publish the Feasibility Study. Agreed.
> 
> My query if uranium has now totally a untouchable commodity why BHPB has decided to invest so massively in Olympic Dam ? The real reasons we will probably never know unless there is some one from BHPB discloses it.




Uranium is merely a by-product @ Olympic Dam...

"Olympic Dam is primarily a copper mine that produces 200,000 tonnes of the metal annually while by-products include up to 4000 tonnes of uranium per year as well as gold and silver. The figures make Olympic Dam the third biggest producer of uranium, with about 8% of the world's supply."

Link

"Tom Price, UBS global commodity analyst, said the biggest impact from BHP's expansion would be on the uranium market, with the miner's output of the product expected to account for about 10 per cent of forecast global supply in about 2020.

"*That is so big you will start seeing prices in the uranium market fall before it even comes into the market because everyone will be taking positions on it*," he said."

Link


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> You also failed to point out that your chart in post 2090, shows that since november 03, we have had a series of higher highs and higher lows , and I could be wrong but I'd be surprised if that trend didn't continue...!




Agree 100%!!!

The last three troughs were $0.007, $0.009 and $0.013

Hardly a trend to be proud of...

$0.019 - $0.020 wouldn't be out of place in such company!

A share consolidation is surely imminent!

 :iagree:


----------



## Miner

Chalea said:


> Uranium is merely a by-product @ Olympic Dam...
> 
> "Olympic Dam is primarily a copper mine that produces 200,000 tonnes of the metal annually while by-products include up to 4000 tonnes of uranium per year as well as gold and silver. The figures make Olympic Dam the third biggest producer of uranium, with about 8% of the world's supply."
> 
> Link
> 
> "Tom Price, UBS global commodity analyst, said the biggest impact from BHP's expansion would be on the uranium market, with the miner's output of the product expected to account for about 10 per cent of forecast global supply in about 2020.
> 
> "*That is so big you will start seeing prices in the uranium market fall before it even comes into the market because everyone will be taking positions on it*," he said."
> 
> Link




Dear Chalea

I am aware of Olympic Dam's by product is uranium. I also know Olympic Dam and its other products since WMC era. I do realise OD expansion is not driven by uranium alone and copper is an important element to it. But as a by product uranium will be increased. It is all part of a complex economics and market prediction by BHPB Business Analysis group. We will never know it in market and can only speculate or predict it.

That does not change the perspective that BHPB has been buying uranium on spot price when their own uranium production fell.

My original point remains that uranium market is turning up . It is a slow recovery but coming back. If all signals are understood by common people then there is nothing left for smart business people like BHPB and others to make money. In short, small miners but with rich uranium resources like PEN time is coming return to good soon. How soon - for broader perspective I suggest in next 12 months.

All the best


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> My original point remains that uranium market is turning up . It is a slow recovery but coming back. If all signals are understood by common people then there is nothing left for smart business people like BHPB and others to make money. In short, small miners but with rich uranium resources like PEN time is coming return to good soon. How soon - for broader perspective I suggest in next 12 months.




Dear Miner

After the $6-$140 pump & dump I don't see uranium doing much for a long, long time.

It's caught in a 3 year old rectangle. You say it'll rise. It could also fall or it could stay range-bound for ages.

Olympic Dam, Husab, Cigar Lake & Tumalappalli are set to swamp the world with an over-supply of uranium.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Miner said:


> In short, small miners but with rich uranium resources like PEN time is coming return to good soon.




Only if they start selling ore before they run out of cash, What are your thoughts on the following questions, 

1, When exactly is it expected that Pen will receive it's first payment from a customer for minerals they have extracted?

2, how many months until they run out of cash?

3, How much capital is likely to be raised to fund the difference in the above?

4, How much dilution will occur to the existing equity holders,?

5, After the dilution has happened, what will be the earning per share in say 5 years?

6, Is the earnings per share in five years after dilution going to be enough to make it worth while deploying capital now and waiting that long for results?

I myself believe that  nuclear power generation will grow in the next 20 - 50 years, But I question whether a Uranium hopeful penny stock is the best exposure. I myself am happy with my small exposure to Uranium though my BHP holding, I much prefer a diversified producer than a company that owns nothing but some bore holes and a few pegs in the ground.


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> View attachment 44928
> 
> :bananasmi




While I maybe one of the few who can show some appreciation to your satirical approach to take the mickey out of PEN Chalea, I do note you make regular reference to the spike in SP of Uranium in 2007 of over $140 and lower high earlier this year of over $70......Hard case ayy buddy:alcohol:

Interesting viewing that the Weekly charts of the Share Price of PEN in 2007 reached a high of 10 cents and earlier this year a high of 15 cents:bananasmi

Can we conclude a lower high in the SP of Uranium will equate to a higher high in the SP of PEN in the future


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Interesting viewing that the Weekly charts of the Share Price of PEN in 2007 reached a high of 10 cents and earlier this year a high of 15 cents
> 
> Can we conclude a lower high in the SP of Uranium will equate to a higher high in the SP of PEN in the future




Please re-visit this chart Karlos to reacquaint yourself with the fact that PEN made a higher high not because Uranium made a lower high but because management dangled the DFS carrot...:nono:


Once Bitten Twice Shy Karlos...:bite:


----------



## Purd2

You suffer from compound ignorance Chalea, you don't know that you don't know. Educate yourself and read this:

Environmentalist supports nuclear power

By: PATRICK MOORE 

Published: October 23, 2011


As a life-long environmentalist and ecologist interested in pursuing environmentally sustainable policies, I attended the Governor's Energy Conference in Richmond last week. My perspective on the subject is somewhat unusual. I was a founding member of Greenpeace and served for nine years as president of Greenpeace Canada and seven years as a director of Greenpeace International. My academic training is in forest biology, with a doctorate in ecology. Yes, I am a passionate environmentalist, but one who professes a balance of environmental, social and economic priorities.

Like some of my fellow environmentalists, I have concluded that nuclear energy is the only source of power capable of providing pollution-free electricity on a large enough scale to replace some of the nearly 70 percent of U.S. electricity generated by fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Wind and solar power have their place, but they are too intermittent, expensive and unpredictable to replace big baseload plants such as coal, nuclear and hydroelectric. And, hydroelectric resources, providing 8 percent of U.S. electricity, are built pretty much to capacity.

Nuclear energy does not produce any of the pollutants associated with coal and natural gas, and it is the most efficient form of energy available. A single 7-gram pellet of uranium fuel produces the same amount of energy as 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas or one ton of coal.

As a sensible environmentalist, I recognize that mining raw materials from the earth is an unavoidable necessity in a modern society. Every building, car, cell phone, computer, wind turbine and solar panel requires the mining of iron, copper, aluminum, titanium and rare earths. Nuclear energy is no exception and requires the mining of uranium to produce nuclear fuel.

As a result of the most stringent environmental and safety controls of any industry in the United States, today's uranium mines are safer and more environmentally sound than any other type of mining. I have visited uranium mines in the United States, Canada, Australia and Eastern Europe. I have witnessed firsthand the robust, multi-layered systems used at these operations to protect water, air, soil, plants and wildlife from contamination and other potential adverse impacts.

Uranium mine and mill facilities use heavily engineered barriers and water management systems to prevent the release of materials outside of those facilities. Waste materials, known as tailings, are no longer stored in above-ground dams that allow floods, heavy winds or rains to wash material into streams and rivers. Instead, tailings are encased in heavily lined, below-grade containment cells that prevent any contact with groundwater or any release due to flooding or other severe weather events.

At these facilities, I have observed the frequent, ongoing testing of air, water and soil quality that is conducted to detect the slightest elevations in contaminant levels on the sites and in surrounding areas. In no instances have I ever seen or learned of any activities that endangered workers or community residents.

I have also reviewed ecological and epidemiological studies measuring the long-term health and environmental impacts of uranium mining and other nuclear operations. Several studies examining public health records for thousands of uranium workers and populations living near uranium mines in three states found no differences in cancer rates between those subjects and populations living in non-mining areas. A groundbreaking public health study by Columbia University compiled health records from 54,000 nuclear plant workers and found that these workers had fewer cancers, less disease and lived longer than the general population.

I look forward to the release of the National Academy of Sciences study on uranium mining in Virginia in December of this year. I am confident it will confirm what I have discovered and will identify the best practices and safeguards necessary to ensure that uranium mining is conducted in a way that protects human health and the environment. I hope the study contributes to the formulation of a sensible policy for uranium mining in Virginia that allows the commonwealth to harness the enormous benefits of clean, emissions-free energy contained in Southside Virginia's uranium resources.

An advisor to government and industry, Patrick Moore is a co-founder and former leader of Greenpeace, and chair and chief scientist at Greenspirit Strategies Ltd. in Vancouver, Canada. He has a recent book, "Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout: the Making of a Sensible Environmentalist."


----------



## namrog

Nuclear energy , powers ahead..

Where's the slowdown......?


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ost-lucrative-on-nuclear-demand-real-m-a.html


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Please re-visit this chart Karlos to reacquaint yourself with the fact that PEN made a higher high not because Uranium made a lower high but because management dangled the DFS carrot...:nono:




Poor observation I feel Chalea:silly:. Your comment is obviously a dillusional view to think management are baiting the investors/traders to create a parabolic rise in the share price of PEN earlier in the year.

I personally have no concern in the delay of the DFS. I note yourself being a non-holder of PEN regularly comment on the astonishment to yourself of this monumental concern this should be to shareholders:screwy:.

PS Personal advice from your good buddy Karlos, lay of the spliffs:kiffer:, tends to create radical visions that you may feel much more knowledgeable on a subject that the majority


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;664963 20th-October-2011 08:01 PM said:
			
		

> "confirmed breakout"...of the bearish rising wedge
> 
> _*Measured target = 3.4c*_
> 
> View attachment 44927



Another bearish pattern break out in addition to today's news means another bearish MACD cross is _*imminent...*_




:iagree:


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> Another bearish pattern break out in addition to today's news means another bearish MACD cross is _*imminent...*_
> 
> :iagree:






So, are you interested in buying at 3.4 cents ....?


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> So, are you interested in buying at 3.4 cents ....?




No thank you...

The monthly chart shows PEN has JUST broken it's long term up trend line.

If/when previous 3.6c support fails the weekly chart's rectangle target = 

3.6 - (4.9 - 3.6) = 2.3c 

That's almost a 50% drop from here...


----------



## notting

When BHP and other big miners plan to ramp up production in something it's done after massive amounts of number crunching an investigation into when demand will start to really ramp up.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/uranium-deals-prove-most-lucrative-on-nuclear-demand-real-m-a?category=%2Fnews%2Faustralia-newzealand%2F
It seems that day is nearly upon us!


----------



## Chalea

Peninsula Energy Limited (PEN) is an emerging ASX listed uranium producer with assets in Wyoming, USA and Karoo, South Africa    



Chalea said:


> ...The ANC’s Youth League and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, the country’s largest labor grouping and a party ally, say that *the ANC will adopt nationalisation as a policy at its national conference next year, and is only looking into the details of how best to do it...
> 
> The ANC Youth League’s campaign to wrest mine ownership from what it calls a white capitalist elite has caused “an uneasiness from investors, particularly from outside South Africa”...*
> 
> Link




"Mining giant Rio Tinto has weighed into Africa's nationalism debate, with chief executive Tom Albanese saying royalty regimes are better for host countries than direct equity ownership in projects.

*Mr Albanese's comments come as South Africa is contemplating a policy allowing the state to take 60 per cent in all mining companies operating there.*"

Link

:horse:


----------



## Chalea




----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "*Fukushima radioactive caesium leaks ‘equal 168 Hiroshimas’*
> ...This means that “radioactive events” usually do not initially kill people. But some of those particles do indeed land in the wrong place at the wrong time, and subsequently can cause cancer or birth defects in human beings.





Tysonboss1 said:


> the characteristics of caesium makes it not overly bad as far as radioactive sources go,
> 1 , firstly there was hardly any released.




"The Fukushima nuclear disaster released twice as much radioactive caesium into the atmosphere as Japanese authorities estimated, reaching 40% of the total from Chernobyl, according to a preliminary report."



> 3 , any amount that is some how ingested will not accumulate in any one area of the body and it will be readily passed within hours.




"The study did not consider health implications but caesium-137 is dangerous because it can last for decades in the environment, releasing cancer-causing radiation."

Link




:bad:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "confirmed breakout"...of the bearish rising wedge
> 
> Measured target = 3.4c
> 
> View attachment 44927




Historical study of PEN's SP reaction to Slow Stochastic overbought status -




:microwave


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Another bearish pattern break out in addition to today's news means another bearish MACD cross is _*imminent...*_
> View attachment 44984




Bearish MACD cross confirmed...




Short term target?

Either 4.8+(4.8-4.3)=5.3c      or       4.3-(4.8-4.3)=3.8c

*"Shortly"* LOL!


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;31st-October-2011 10:07 PM667382 said:
			
		

> Bearish MACD cross confirmed...Short term target?
> 
> 4.3-(4.8-4.3)=3.8c
> 
> View attachment 45038




Another box ticked...:bananasmi

SP looks to have broken out from a short term bearish pennant.
Hugging the lower Bollinger Band.

*Measured move target = low 3s*


----------



## notting

Pen up 20% Thanks for all your efforts Chalea you've made me  rich


----------



## Tysonboss1

Chalea said:


> 1, "The Fukushima nuclear disaster released twice as much radioactive caesium into the atmosphere as Japanese authorities estimated, reaching 40% of the total from Chernobyl, according to a preliminary report."
> 
> 
> 
> 2, "The study did not consider health implications but caesium-137 is dangerous because it can last for decades in the environment, releasing cancer-causing radiation."
> 
> 
> :bad:




1, So it is 60% less than chernobyl, and chernobyl effects next to nothing, Seems ok to me. As the snow melts it will work it's way out to sea and be diluted to back ground levels.

2, It can last for decades, but it is water soluable and will be readily diluted, the average house brick will be more radioactive than any measureable quantity of the ceaesium you may be able to find in a year or two, 

Again let me say that the air pollution in japan is a far greater worry as far as cancer goes, 

Why is it that you are freaked out by the word "Radiation", Radiation is every where,


----------



## tech/a

notting said:


> Pen up 20% Thanks for all your efforts Chalea you've made me  rich




Pfft.
A drop in the ocean.
Anything over 5c would get me excited.

Mind you buying around 4c looks good as well.----if you have to trade it!


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> Pfft.
> A drop in the ocean.
> Anything over 5c would get me excited.
> 
> Mind you buying around 4c looks good as well.----if you have to trade it!



Sold at 20% thought 5c may be a struggle.  Though selling my weekness!


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> Uranium chart update...




Buddy.......mate.......new best friend....Your dedication and commitment to enlightening the good folk on this forum appears to be weakening.:sleeping:



Does this mean........ the uptrend upon usartyman:


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Buddy.......mate.......new best friend....Your dedication and commitment to enlightening the good folk on this forum appears to be weakening.:sleeping:
> Does this mean........ the uptrend upon usartyman:




Karlos, mate, please go back through the thread & tally the number of times I've mentioned two cents.

Bearish rectangle measured move target = 2.6c


----------



## notting

Back in at 3.6 :bonk:


----------



## Chasero

notting said:


> Back in at 3.6 :bonk:




good luck!

Any reason why you are going long at 3.6?


----------



## notting

No. I'm just being silly. It's a small trade. Gambling basically.
It's so beaten down it's more than likely to bounce again and I will get out.


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> No. I'm just being silly. It's a small trade. Gambling basically.
> It's so beaten down it's more than likely to bounce again and I will get out.




Short term hourly chart rectangle pattern

Bull target = 3.9 + 0.3 = 4.2c :headshake

*Bear target = 3.6 - 0.3 = 3.3c*


----------



## theartglasshouse

Got some at $0.036 as well. If it goes lower I will add some more. Might see a good rebound into the 4's. I think the 3's and 4's range is here to stay for a while.


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Does this mean........ the uptrend upon usartyman:




PEN and Uranium...


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


>




"...Assuming presidential polls also reflect parliamentary preferences, Deutsche suggests the nuclear industry should be rather concerned about a policy agreement between the Socialist Party and the French version of the Greens. The agreement, which is yet to be formerly signed, is to undertake to close 24 of France's 58 nuclear reactors by 2025. Two would be closed immediately and a moratorium would be placed on any new construction outside of the one plant currently being built.

In the scheme of things, suggests Deutsche, such a move would be a lot more significant than Germany's decision to wind down nuclear power made earlier this year after the Fukushima disaster. It would likely also prompt a nuclear rethink across all of the European Union, with Belgium an obvious first candidate for change...

...*Deutsche will watch political developments closely given the potentially "profound" implications for uranium prices*"

Link

:iagree:


----------



## Miner

With labour announcement, I am sure lady luck for PEN and other uranium holders will returnn on Monday onwards.

Following ban withdrawnn at party level now Ms Gillard will try to move to Parliament .

http://www.samachar.com/India-welcomes-Australian-Labor-Party-move-on-uranium-sale-lmewKnbbacd.html


Politically it will be however very different. China Government will thwart such move as India not a favoured nation to China no matter what level of business both are undertaking.

Any move to see Indian economy goes beyond Chinese interest will be road blocked .

So I suspect, China will send (or probably sending) a strong veiled threat to Aussie Government not to permit uranium to India. The volume of our dependancy is too high to ignore Chinese instructions.

Am I calling long shots ? May be. But with left faction in labor against this withdrawal of ban probably power hungry Rudd and his Chinese connection will work deep inside to see Julia fails.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-04/labor-left-to-fight-uranium-exports/3711938?WT.svl=news0


It is time and see.


----------



## Miner

Miner said:


> With labour announcement, I am sure lady luck for PEN and other uranium holders will returnn on Monday onwards.
> 
> Following ban withdrawnn at party level now Ms Gillard will try to move to Parliament .
> 
> http://www.samachar.com/India-welcomes-Australian-Labor-Party-move-on-uranium-sale-lmewKnbbacd.html
> 
> 
> Politically it will be however very different. China Government will thwart such move as India not a favoured nation to China no matter what level of business both are undertaking.
> 
> Any move to see Indian economy goes beyond Chinese interest will be road blocked .
> 
> So I suspect, China will send (or probably sending) a strong veiled threat to Aussie Government not to permit uranium to India. The volume of our dependancy is too high to ignore Chinese instructions.
> 
> Am I calling long shots ? May be. But with left faction in labor against this withdrawal of ban probably power hungry Rudd and his Chinese connection will work deep inside to see Julia fails.http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-04/labor-left-to-fight-uranium-exports/3711938?WT.svl=news0
> 
> It is time and see.




http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/newshome/12240375/labor-party-review-criticises-rudd-govt/

Thankfully it appears Rudd politics is not liked by large section of Labour Front. So what I said as a long shot may not be there.

So for uranium aspirants the picture is still more hopeful.

Regarding PEN specific - the volume was very large probably for day traders activity . It opened with .037, rose to .039 and dived back to .039 compared to yesterday's closing of .036.

I am sure PEN board is watching and probably they can make catalytic bull effect  adn take opportunity to revive losses of PEN by releasing the over pending report today. 

But it is all my wishful thinking and more astonishing the PEN thread is deserted since Dec 1, very unusual .

DYOR


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> So for uranium aspirants the picture is still more hopeful...But it is all my wishful thinking...




"Uranium bombs despite India move 

You couldn't even call it a boomlet. It was more like a ripple on a lake, and lasted about as long.

Julia Gillard's volte-face on selling uranium to India caused a mild stir among the uranium stocks, but the sector is still doing a passable imitation of Death Valley. A few stocks bounced but the present price levels are woeful."

Link



"The fallout from the nuclear accident at Fukushima is casting a pall over the share price of uranium miners."


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> ...the sector is still doing a passable imitation of Death Valley.




"Spot uranium prices continue slide, trade at about $52 a pound U308...

*...Over the next three months, it would not be surprising if the spot price dropped to $50/lb or lower in order to stimulate more demand, UxC said in its Monday report*."

Link

"Contract Specifications:UX,NYMEX

ADX Indicator: Look for the current downtrending market to continue. 

MACD Indicator: Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. 

Stochastic - Slow Indicator: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not)."

Link




:xmaswave


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> I am sure PEN board is watching and probably they can make catalytic bull effect  adn take opportunity to revive losses of PEN by releasing the over pending report today.




No news today 

Report was due in  "January 2011" a year ago, was "imminent" after that, "within 10-15 days" last July, "shortly" in October and now "4 months at the soonest" at the AGM...

The most recent news was the results of the AGM...:bowdown:

Standout was the "Issue of Performance Rights" to management...:screwy:

:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Miner said:


> ...revive losses of PEN....




Dear Miner

PEN is still in the throes of a long term crash...

Long term uptrend has been trashed and now the Monthly MACD looks set to fall below zero...

This crash will take many many months to wash off, (once it finally stops falling), before any fantasy about a meaningful SP rise can be entertained!!!
:iagree:



:xmaswave


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "...the sector is still doing a passable imitation of Death Valley. A few stocks bounced but the present price levels are woeful."
> 
> Link
> 
> "The fallout from the nuclear accident at Fukushima is casting a pall over the share price of uranium miners."




"After Fukushima: Enough Is Enough

...the stark reality that the risks of nuclear power far outweigh any benefits should have become clear to the world. 

...That research estimated that by now close to 1 million people have died of causes linked to the Chernobyl disaster.

...Fukushima may well be on par with or even far exceed Chernobyl in terms of the effects on public health, as new information becomes available. The crisis is ongoing; the plant remains unstable and radiation emissions continue into the air and water."

Link

:xmaswave


----------



## indeck

sick of seeing your rhetoric, ignored


----------



## Chalea

indeck said:


> sick of seeing your rhetoric, ignored




No rhetoric here, just blinding fact, (like my 3.5c call back in July...)

Link

corn:


----------



## Miner

Japan's Engineering and Construction skills demonstrated by its willingness to rebuilt up the nuke plant is now well published.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...cmkPuA?docId=d172d5b5364c46419f2ab55786382aa8 
http://www.nei.org/keyissues/protectingtheenvironment/cleanair/ 
Some past time reading before we reject PEN, TOE, PDN and like shares.
The emotion and lack of business logic will be still there like Wall Stree protesters but nuclear plant is going to be a requirement for mankind.
Love and affection is very important to be shown in the form of a diamond ring. That diamond ring needs to be financed by some one's hard earning. Both are required : Emotion like Greenies initiative and Hard Core investment like PEN and other companies.

Every one has an opinion and I am making my opinion based on my research. Yes there will be an other side of the coin but both are required to make a coin a real one and not a fake one 

I still believe there will be a turnaround for PEN - well time is a test and patience is virtue   Until then PEN share certificate will be in the bottom drawer for me.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;662862 8th-October-2011 10:32 PM  said:
			
		

> The weekly chart shows a bearish continuation rectangle pattern.
> Using the previously successful measuring method, (click here), the same "2.0c approximate target" is shown...
> View attachment 44834



Bearish continuation rectangle support broken

*Measured move target = 3.6 - (5.0 - 3.6) = 2.2c*

Click chart


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Bearish continuation rectangle support broken
> *Measured move target = 3.6 - (5.0 - 3.6) = 2.2c*
> View attachment 45480




Daily chart's rectangle measured move confirms weekly chart target of 2.2c


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> Daily chart's rectangle measured move confirms weekly chart target of 2.2c
> 
> View attachment 45519
> 
> 
> View attachment 45520




You say that " best breaks to the downside occur on average volume, only to see volume ramp up as the stock falls ".

Only that's hardly true of todays candle and volume, as can be seen it was obviously bought up, not saying that your 2.2 cents target won't be eventually hit, only in my humble oppinion your analysis of todays action is wrong..

Might have a go at this tomorrow, depending....!

Then again there are no certainties and tomorrow is another day...


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> You say that " best breaks to the downside occur on average volume, only to see volume ramp up as the stock falls ".
> 
> Only that's hardly true of todays candle and volume, as can be seen it was obviously bought up, not saying that your 2.2 cents target won't be eventually hit, only in my humble oppinion your analysis of todays action is wrong..




That is not my analysis, it comes from here, and it describes beautifully the volume action since price knifed through 3.6c support.

Emphasis on the word KNIFED. This stock is a falling knife...

FYI it's common for support to be found at whole numbers. Expect 3.0 to be hit a couple of more times before it too becomes resistance like 7.0 and 6.0 and 5.0 and 4.0 before it...

If you want to try your luck at a quick swing trade be my guest, but you've probably missed half the action!

:bananasmi


----------



## notting

I got out at .037 the day after I hit .036. The market was strong but it didn't bounce nearly as much as I hoped it would. May ha e another crack at .029


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> I got out at .037 the day after I hit .036. The market was strong but it didn't bounce nearly as much as I hoped it would. May ha e another crack at .029




When/if it cracks 3.0c again the very short term target = 3.0 - (3.2 - 3.0) = 2.8c

Bull target = 3.4c (you never know your luck in a big city...)


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> That is not my analysis, it comes from here, and it describes beautifully the volume action since price knifed through 3.6c support.
> 
> :bananasmi




In theory, the analysis is correct, but your use of it here is flawed..

The analysis assumes that volume increases because sellers overwhelm buyers, but that was not the case yesterday, it was the other way around.

Note on this 10 day hourly chart, the volume spikes are on up bars at support levels, suggesting that scalpers are all over this, and as soon as it breaks under that same support volume increases slightly as stops are hit and the scalpers bail...


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> In theory, the analysis is correct, but your use of it here is flawed..
> 
> The analysis assumes that volume increases because sellers overwhelm buyers, but that was not the case yesterday, it was the other way around.
> 
> Note on this 10 day hourly chart, the volume spikes are on up bars at support levels, suggesting that scalpers are all over this, and as soon as it breaks under that same support volume increases slightly as stops are hit and the scalpers bail...




Dear namrog

What colour was yesterday's volume bar???

Next you'll be using the phrase 'Smart Money'


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> Dear namrog
> 
> What colour was yesterday's volume bar???
> 
> Next you'll be using the phrase 'Smart Money'
> 
> View attachment 45526




The volume bar colour says nothing, it's an open v close aid ...

Have a close look at your own chart and what did the colour of the volume bars show going forward   ? ------nothing...!!   

Look , PEN will more than likely keep on falling, which has more to do with general market weakness than anything company specific,  so when the market rises PEN will lift with it, and the same obvious technical signals will likely appear in share and index charts across the board...

In the meantime there is a low R/R possibility of a trade at 3 cents.

There is no suggestion that this is the bottom ...


----------



## notting

Chalea said:


> What colour was yesterday's volume bar???:shake:
> View attachment 45526




Clearly lot's of buyers coming in at 3 and just below.  It reverses back out of the 3 and 2.9 area *FAST* back up to .032 on demand!!:car:


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> The volume bar colour says nothing, it's an open v close aid ...




It tells me the day was bearish yet you seem to think it was a bullish reversal candle yesterday. Today's action says no...:bananasmi



> Have a close look at your own chart and what did the colour of the volume bars show going forward   ? ------nothing...!!




My volume bars showed decreasing price on increasing volume...



> Look , PEN will more than likely keep on falling, which has more to do with general market weakness than anything company specific,  so when the market rises PEN will lift with it, and the same obvious technical signals will likely appear in share and index charts across the board...




Sounds like wishful thinking...:nono:



> In the meantime there is a low R/R possibility of a trade at 3 cents.




What sell price, 3.2c? Each to their own...:sleeping:



> There is no suggestion that this is the bottom ...




:iagree:


----------



## notting

144,690 at 3.1c
37,440 at 3c
says not much selling going on at 3c, even with 2.7 million shares ready to be baught.


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> 144,690 at 3.1c
> 37,440 at 3c
> says not much selling going on at 3c, even with 2.7 million shares ready to be baught.




3.0c is support for now.
2.0c will be support in the not to distant future.

DFS is months away...


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> Buddy.......mate.......new best friend....Your dedication and commitment to enlightening the good folk on this forum appears to be weakening.:sleeping:
> 
> Does this mean........ the uptrend upon usartyman:




Nearly Karlos...

This chart shows the long term uptrend line 

Current support @ 1.5c 

Click chart



:chimney


----------



## Karlos68

Chalea said:


> 3.0c is support for now.
> 2.0c will be support in the not to distant future.
> 
> DFS is months away...



I never thought I would admit this but...."I have some respect for you Chalea"

I sold my holdings of PEN at 12.5 cents early this year....... 
I recall from a master of trading that buying into a share is best using the weekly as it eliminates the market noise. Fuku was severe market noise. ............I used the Daily and brought back in at average 10 cent about a week after Fuku. ....Your mention of this trading advice a while back made me recall the advice of an expert. While I did not admit at the time it has shown your wise application of this advice have proven to be a safe trading practice.

My long term A, B, C trendlines have also broken downwards. I will still hold but I do congradulate yourself as my average charting ability to analyze charts has proven to be of a lower calibre than yourself......

Merry Xmas:alcohol:


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> It tells me the day was bearish yet you seem to think it was a bullish reversal candle yesterday. Today's action says no
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...:Todays action is inconclusive, that's why I said buy "DEPENDING".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My volume bars showed decreasing price on increasing volume
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> That's not what yeasterdays bar was about..and again, your own chart proves that the colour of the volume bar going forward means nothing..
> 
> :
Click to expand...



I'll say no more for now Chalea, it seems you have your mind made up that the pattern will repeat to the cent, It might or might not, so I  hope it's not closed to the possibilities. :screwy:


----------



## Chalea

Karlos68 said:


> I never thought I would admit this but...




Karlos, I never thought I would admit this but..."I hope this stock turns around in the future so that you don't lose money on it"

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and yours!

:wreath:wreath:wreath


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> I'll say no more for now Chalea, it seems you have your mind made up that the pattern will repeat to the cent, It might or might not, so I  hope it's not closed to the possibilities. :screwy:




No closed mind here, recheck my post and hourly chart. 

2.8c OR 3.4c "very short term target"

:horse:


----------



## Dougs Antiques

Chalea said:


> Daily chart's rectangle measured move confirms weekly chart target of 2.2c
> 
> View attachment 45519
> 
> 
> View attachment 45520




Your logic is spot on except for the splitting of the highs and lows (top line from the high to the low)
If you take the low to the low in this evaluation it is equal to a 1 cent drop.
so taking this on board the next drop should be another 1 cent drop from low to low.
Hence my buy at .026 not .022
See what happens i suppose.



DYOR


----------



## Chalea

Dougs Antiques said:


> Your logic is spot on except for the splitting of the highs and lows (top line from the high to the low)
> If you take the low to the low in this evaluation it is equal to a 1 cent drop.
> so taking this on board the next drop should be another 1 cent drop from low to low.
> Hence my buy at .026 not .022
> See what happens i suppose.
> View attachment 45537
> 
> 
> DYOR




Each to their own Dougs Antiques

Can't see why you wouldn't use 5.0c as the starting point of the drop.

Volume bar shows a significant selling day no?

"If the pattern is on the smaller size, then the expected price movement should mirror the price movement preceding the pattern."


----------



## Dougs Antiques

Chalea said:


> Each to their own Dougs Antiques
> 
> Can't see why you wouldn't use 5.0c as the starting point of the drop.
> 
> Volume bar shows a significant selling day no?
> 
> "If the pattern is on the smaller size, then the expected price movement should mirror the price movement preceding the pattern."
> 
> View attachment 45538



Yes it was a selling day as was the 13 Dec.
I will be buying a small parcel at .026 about 400,000 units to see how it goes with  a short stop loss set.
If it hits .022 in the next month I will applaud you but I dont think that it will except for the fact that the EURO causes it to happen.
If you want to use the top of 5 cents thats fine ....but just stick to that,dont mix tops with bottoms IMO

Regards
Doug


----------



## Chalea

Dougs Antiques said:


> Yes it was a selling day as was the 13 Dec.
> I will be buying a small parcel at .026 about 400,000 units to see how it goes with  a short stop loss set.
> If it hits .022 in the next month I will applaud you but I dont think that it will except for the fact that the EURO causes it to happen.
> If you want to use the top of 5 cents thats fine ....but just stick to that,dont mix tops with bottoms IMO
> 
> Regards
> Doug




If you want the full range of the move you have to use the peak to the trough

Method worked here


----------



## Chasero

so 5c, 4c, 3c, 2c... how low will it go??

The company is dead?


----------



## skc

Chasero said:


> so 5c, 4c, 3c, 2c... how low will it go??
> 
> The company is dead?




The company is still valued at $60m. 

The truely dead companies are valued at $2-3m.

So it's not dead, it's just not in perfect health.


----------



## Miner

Well 
Let me confess I see the vertical bars with black and red and interpretation but technically I am very naive to understand predictive values from chart analysis.
But there are thousands of good chartists doing a great job and I respect them
So the charts show that PEN is going to dribble drastically.

I have been dreaming that PEN will come down at 2 cents very soon as shown  by chartists.

That will be probably more so for all uraniums shares as PDN also drifting now
Well here you go a newslink from a not so good chartist. He is the Prime Minister of the largest democracy. A partner of BRIC at one time. He is a Ph D in finance and was the Governor of the largest central bank in India. He declined to come to Australia so Julia change the labour momentum to release uranium to India
http://www.samachar.com/After-India...-Kudankulam-opening-in-weeks-lmqxMwijagh.html

Why Russia and India decided to work jointly to open the Atomic Power Plant ? Not to make nuclear aresnal but green power. India is also very high producer of power from thermal coal.

why Uncle Sam is saying this :http://www.samachar.com/IndoUS-engagement-key-to-ensure-peaceful-world-order-Burns-lmqxKgieihb.html

Of course there is no love affair here. All want business. India is in command. So we are looking for - Making money. Not buying emotion but selling emotion to earn money. 
Will the charts show this until the reactors start producing power and then share prices start jumping accordingly ??


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;675328 10th-December-2011 08:31 AM said:
			
		

> Bearish continuation rectangle support broken
> *Measured move target = 3.6 - (5.0 - 3.6) = 2.2c*
> View attachment 45480




Weekly chart shows the measured move.
Lowest weekly close since July 2009.

Click chart





Long term trend/support line.

Click chart



:xmastree


----------



## Chasero

skc said:


> The company is still valued at $60m.
> 
> The truely dead companies are valued at $2-3m.
> 
> So it's not dead, it's just not in perfect health.




Oh I see.. guess I'll sit back and watch


----------



## Chalea

Hourly chart showing it's second bear flag in the last two weeks...


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Hourly chart showing it's second bear flag in the last two weeks...
> View attachment 45599




Follow the leader?
Here's the PDN chart. 

*Target = 80c*




:frosty:


----------



## notting

Ooooh. I was so close to buying at .026 yesterday.  But the global stuff and over all market trend was making me too chicken.  PEN just upgraded it's resources!! up 8%.


----------



## Dougs Antiques

notting said:


> Ooooh. I was so close to buying at .026 yesterday.  But the global stuff and over all market trend was making me too chicken.  PEN just upgraded it's resources!! up 8%.



I bought PEN yesterday as I said that I would in an earlier post @ .026 and took profit @ .029.
I gave it a chance to rally more but with the very high volume today and no buyers above .030 I feel that its not quite PEN's time to shine.
So now I live to fight another day


----------



## theartglasshouse

Nothing like a DFS to give it a kick start. Thankfully I have been slowly accumulating at rock bottom prices throughout the year and am seeing some green for a change on this one. 2012 should be interesting year for PEN so I think I will hold on to this one for now.


----------



## Chalea

*Gap @ 3.0c*



:sleeping:


----------



## theartglasshouse

Top up time then... Will just add to the green when I sell later on...


----------



## Chalea

theartglasshouse said:


> Top up time then...




You'll have at least a few months to -

a) "Top up" and

b) Witness a re-test of 2.5c

*'IF' it holds then you'll have the makings of a base for the next pump and dump...*




:bananasmi


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> *Gap @ 3.0c*
> 
> View attachment 45613
> 
> :sleeping:




Gap up = good
Gap down = bad

Helped myself to a small parcel at .031, stop at breakeven so it can do as it likes now..:bananasmi


----------



## hangseng

Happy New Year ASF'ers...long time no post 


A little dated but for anyone interested. My personal views and that of a fellow poster from afar regarding the Strata Energy pre-hearing conference 20th Dec 2011.

I eventually watched the entire replay of the pre-hearing conference.

Without trying to absolutely pre-empt the final outcome. IMO there is now way this petition will succeed in doing any more than cause the slight delay it has.

My summary view:

As an outcome Pugsley issued a "NOTICE OF REQUESTED CITATION" (see NRC ADAMS document list 22/12/2011) and I am now certain it relates to groundwater protection and the restoration bond. The lawyer for Viviano tried to add in that the bond "may" be insufficient in the event of an excursion. Pugsley on more than one occasion argued this point strongly citing the case in this recent notice. He was clearly very well prepared, I could not say the same for the rather inadequate display from Viviano's lawyer.

It is the elevation of the Viviano property that the (environmental) judge so gently put it to the lawyer for Viviano that causes water to flow down, not up as it would need to if in the unlikely event an excursion occurred.

He went into a lot of detail to demonstrate how there would be no impact on the property as far as UG and surface water were concerned.

Strata hardly saying a word in the opening and the NRC judges doing the claimant no favours by displaying their own evidence presented. Pugsley's case was made very easy. That said apart from the environmental judges comments and discussion on presented evidence there was no apparent bias displayed.

Apparently she also travels a lot and uses ALL of the access roads EVERY day according to her lawyer. That and her claim is ridiculous in the extreme regarding dust issues as the road has been used for years by her and the few other property owners and accessed by other operations over the years with no demonstrable impact.

It was clear to me that there was also no demonstrable impact on the claimants property in regard to UG water, water runoff, lighting.

The light aspect was thrown in for good measure I am sure. From 16kms away all she MAY see is a very dull glow on the horizon.

Her laywer speaking of the MANY oil and gas fields in the area both past and present shot himself in the foot IMO. Listening to the NRC judge (environmental scientist)explaining the plugging and abandonment process and regulatory requirements simply closed down the argument of impact on her water wells through migration from Strata's proposed activities.

The claimant also tried to put up that Strata has not adequately addressed any potential cumulative aspects. It was during this that the NRC put up that this project is most likely going to expand significantly. I toook it that the additional permitting would cover these aspects and it wasn't relevant as far as this application was concerned. The NRC and Pugsley also commented this was a "guidance" note of the GEIS process and not a regulatory requirement.

I found the NRC very supportive of Strata and they defended the review and approval processes in place. 

The admin judge closed without giving anything away. He stated the judges response, or reason they can't pass judgement, would be given toward the end of January. Date was given but I just can't recall it exactly.

Pugsley in closing re-stated the claimants case regarding the restoration bond should not be considered as it wasn't a part of the claim and he again cited the test case precedent. The Admin judge requested he cite via notice of which he has now done.

IMO, this has no chance of success and will not delay the issue of the permit any further than it has. Spudman (from afar) put it perfectly in a post on the day "Just been listening to the first 30 mins or so and to me it comes across as this lady is clearly looking for some $$$ compensation." I could not have said it better than spudman and I am sure the 3 judges heard what we did.

On to the next supposed hurdle. PEN sure has had their fair share and shareholders along with it. It will make the final reward taste even sweeter. No surprise Alf Gillman saw fit to top up post this hearing.


Full hearing here for a limited time:

*Initial Prehearing Conference, Tuesday December 20,Strata+Energy*


		HTML:
	

http://www.visualwebcaster.com/VWP/SkinPlayer/Player.asp?e=84165&w=320&h=240&s=False&ch=False&sm=True&c=False&c1=False&mc=&qo=False&p=False&i=True&pp=False&cp=False&v=True&mc=False&a=False&sid=151943&aid=153317&pl=&pr=&hs=&u=5409040&pid=1&pt=4&pc=False&cuts=6&t=Initial+Prehearing+Conference+in+the+Matter+of+Strata+Energy


----------



## tech/a

Truly amazing.
Rags to riches to rags and nothing learnt!


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> A little dated but for anyone interested. My personal views and that of a fellow poster from afar regarding the Strata Energy pre-hearing conference 20th Dec 2011.
> 
> I eventually watched the entire replay of the pre-hearing conference.




Welcome back and happy new year hangseng.

With all due respect, all of this to and fro nonsense is a complete and utter waste of time regardless of whether it comes from Pugsley (or the whole Addams Family).

You guys are never going to make a profit if you stay dependant on this sort of nonsense, there are over 1900 other stocks out there just on the ASX.

It *WAS* a very good trade if you knew when to get in and when to get out and move on and that is a lot simpler than what you guys are dreaming about, trying to understand and believing in.

Sorry if I seem to tell it like it is but this whole Pugsley, Gus and Puggy stuff will get you nowhere (which you probably are in the process of working out for yourselves).

My


----------



## Sean K

theartglasshouse said:


> Nothing like a DFS to give it a kick start. *Thankfully I have been slowly accumulating at rock bottom prices throughout the year *and am seeing some green for a change on this one. 2012 should be interesting year for PEN so I think I will hold on to this one for now.



Would be very interested to see just where you accumulated PEN at during 2011 that allowed you to see some green.


----------



## theartglasshouse

kennas said:


> Would be very interested to see just where you accumulated PEN at during 2011 that allowed you to see some green.




I started accumulating PEN sub 8 cents (not too much between the 5 to 8 cent range), but once it started going under this mark I was hitting the lows and topping up.

My major top ups have been during the recent mid 2 cents to low 3 cents range. This has helped me average down my holdings to the low 3's. Hence the current green.


----------



## skc

theartglasshouse said:


> I started accumulating PEN sub 8 cents (not too much between the 5 to 8 cent range), but once it started going under this mark I was hitting the lows and topping up.
> 
> My major top ups have been during the recent mid 2 cents to low 3 cents range. This has helped me average down my holdings to the low 3's. Hence the current green.




Would someone like to issue a $500 "This can't be true" challenge?


----------



## Ubershrewd

I'd participate in that wager


----------



## barney

skc said:


> Would someone like to issue a $500 "This can't be true" challenge?






Ubershrewd said:


> I'd participate in that wager





My $500 is staying in my wallet 


ps.  ..... just a loose example, but the numbers say it can be done. 


Shares Purchased

25000@ 0.08= $2000
40000@ 0.05= $2000
66667@ 0.03= $2000
80000@ 0.025=$2000

Total Cost = $8000

Current Value of 211667@ 0.038= $8043


----------



## skc

barney said:


> My $500 is staying in my wallet
> 
> 
> ps.  ..... just a loose example, but the numbers say it can be done.
> 
> 
> Shares Purchased
> 
> 25000@ 0.08= $2000
> 40000@ 0.05= $2000
> 66667@ 0.03= $2000
> 80000@ 0.025=$2000
> 
> Total Cost = $8000
> 
> Current Value of 211667@ 0.038= $8043




I think most people know how to calculate the average entry cost over multiple parcels...

BTW. my trading returned 5000% last year. 

Starting equity = $10,000.
Ending equity = $500,000.

Just a loose example, but the number says it can be done


----------



## barney

skc said:


> I think most people know how to calculate the average entry cost over multiple parcels...
> 
> BTW. my trading returned 5000% last year.
> 
> Starting equity = $10,000.
> Ending equity = $500,000.
> 
> Just a loose example, but the number says it can be done




I'll wear the sarcasm since it had a grin  ..... however .... 

I don't believe your $10,000 to $500,000 story, and am prepared to put $500 up against that statement ..... you should have done way better than 5000% ..... you need to get your act together :

Seriously .... Both yours and Uber's post intimated that "artglasshouse" was lying, which I felt needed addressing, considering his claims are totally feasible .... thats the only point my "numbers" were trying to point out, which I'm sure you can appreciate ...... whether his methods are correct or not are a matter of personal trading preference.

ps Perhaps "artglasshouse" can give us his actual figures so that we don't need to make false assumptions regarding his validity.
Cheers.


----------



## theartglasshouse

I have purchased 16 parcels of PEN shares since around late May of last year. I always buy in say quantities of 50,000 per parcel (I am a little pedantic in this respect as I do this with all my holdings - I can't buy say 20,000 and then the next parcel buy would be 25,000, probably OCD). 

The majority of these purchases have been below the 3.5 cent mark buy using the profits I was making from RED trading post consolidation, when it was fluctuating from 17.5 to 21.5 for a while. I was even making 1-3 purchases per week when it was tanking under 3.5 cents. 

And no, I wont be posting actual figures of my buy in prices and parcel quantities as this is for me to know only.

I am also doing this method with another share I own so I can exit on an up swing with at least (hopefully), a little profit if only to cover my trading costs. And hopefully this up swing is on it's way, as it it has made some good gains today.


----------



## barney

theartglasshouse said:


> And no, I wont be posting actual figures of my buy in prices and parcel quantities as this is for me to know only.




Totally appreciate your position "art" and as a past owner of PEN I hope your position is kind to you as it was to me

Cheers,
Barney.


----------



## Boggo

theartglasshouse said:


> And hopefully this up swing is on it's way, as it it has made some good gains today.




For your sake I hope you are right.
To me yesterday was a sign of a turn down and todays action (good gains ??) has done nothing to change my view.
There is a possibility that this could be heading for around 1.6 cents if trend reversal does not override yesterday bar (high).

Just my


----------



## skc

barney said:


> I'll wear the sarcasm since it had a grin  ..... however ....
> 
> Seriously .... Both yours and Uber's post intimated that "artglasshouse" was lying, which I felt needed addressing, considering his claims are totally feasible .... thats the only point my "numbers" were trying to point out, which I'm sure you can appreciate ...... whether his methods are correct or not are a matter of personal trading preference.




I am not saying artglasshouse was lying. I am saying his scenario seems unlikely and someone who seeks the truth might want to issue a $500 challenge (made famous by tech/A challenging Sir O's Pure Energy trade claim). 

People can make any claim they want (as long as the numbers show that it is feasible) and it's up to them to decide whether they wish to earn credibility by proving it. 



theartglasshouse said:


> I have purchased 16 parcels of PEN shares since around late May of last year. I always buy in say quantities of 50,000 per parcel (I am a little pedantic in this respect as I do this with all my holdings - I can't buy say 20,000 and then the next parcel buy would be 25,000, probably OCD).




16 parcels is taking the word "accumulation" a bit too literally.To me accumulation means quietly buying without moving the price.. not buying small parcels whenever it falls.  I hope your broker sent you a nice xmas hamper. 

What's the plan if it keeps falling? Do you have a maximum total value (and no. of parcels) you plan to buy? Serious question as 16 parcels is not something I have ever heard of (granted I don't hear a lot about how people accumulate).


----------



## Sean K

theartglasshouse said:


> I have purchased 16 parcels of PEN shares since around late May of last year....
> 
> The majority of these purchases have been below the 3.5 cent mark buy using the profits I was making from RED trading post consolidation, when it was fluctuating from 17.5 to 21.5 for a while. I was even making 1-3 purchases per week when it was tanking under 3.5 cents.
> 
> .....
> 
> And hopefully this up swing is on it's way, as it it has made some good gains today.



Thanks for more detail on your accumulation of PEN over the past year.

You must have only really accumulated the bulk of your holdings over this 13 day period in December (below) to be in anywhere near green territory. The rest of the year it was way above current value. Buying in May when it was at 8c certainly wouldn't have helped the ledger. 

Nice work to be seeing green from this 2011 turkey!


----------



## theartglasshouse

Boggo said:


> For your sake I hope you are right.
> To me yesterday was a sign of a turn down and todays action (good gains ??) has done nothing to change my view.
> There is a possibility that this could be heading for around 1.6 cents if trend reversal does not override yesterday bar (high).
> 
> Just my




Boggo, that comment was in regards to another share I own which has made some good gains this week and is nearing my average buy in price, slowly though!

SKC, I have no maximum on the amount I plan to own at this stage and if the price does fall again, especially into the 2 cent range, I will start to buy more. I think the next year or so should be interesting for PEN, so I will hold for now. If it does get a good rally though, I will probably exit and then watch.

Kennas, yes - most of the purchases have happened over the past 2 months, more so in December. It is good to see some green finally on this one as most are probably in the red! No doubt we may see more lows in the coming year, but I am happy to hold for now and will exit when I feel the time is right.

As I said, my average price is now in the low 3's, nothing to be greatly excited about, but at least it is showing some green for a change!


----------



## Purd2

Good on you artglasshouse! BUT I hope you got out of RED.


----------



## theartglasshouse

Oh yes! I stopped trading on the RED shares before consolidation happened and I haven't bought back in on that one since. 

I am watching 2 other companies at the moment that could provide some quick profits, with a bit of luck!


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> On to the next supposed hurdle.




"The year 2012 has opened with news that *Fukushima’s radioactive cloud may already have killed some 14,000 Americans*, according to a major study   just published in the International Journal of Health Services...

...*The mythical “Nuclear Renaissance” has been gutted by Fukushima*, low gas prices and the escalating Solartopian revolution in green energy.  Solar panels, wind turbines, sustainable bio-fuels, geo-thermal, ocean thermal, increased efficiency and much more have simply priced atomic energy out of the market..."

Link

:bananasmi


----------



## barney

Chalea said:


> "The year 2012 has opened with news that *Fukushima’s radioactive cloud may already have killed some 14,000 Americans*, according to a major study   just published in the International Journal of Health Services...
> 
> ...*The mythical “Nuclear Renaissance” has been gutted by Fukushima*, low gas prices and the escalating Solartopian revolution in green energy.  Solar panels, wind turbines, sustainable bio-fuels, geo-thermal, ocean thermal, increased efficiency and much more have simply priced atomic energy out of the market..."
> 
> Link
> 
> :bananasmi




Firstly, I respect your position of being anti-nuclear Chalea ..... however, just for balance ......

The article you quote was written mainly by Joseph J. Mangano ... a well known "anti" atomic, anti nuclear and anti whatever else he can make a buck out of !!

As a good writer, Joe with his MBA MPH degrees figured he could make far more cash by soliciting the rich and famous to join his team  ..... beats doing a real job !!

Actually he is very smart .. he found an edge, so well done to him ... I just prefer to take what he and others cashing in have to say, with a grain of salt.

ps. I don't hold PEN atm, so my cynicism is theoretically unbiased


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "The year 2012 has opened with news that *Fukushima’s radioactive cloud may already have killed some 14,000 Americans*


----------



## barney

Its scary isn't it ........ a 14 week window of data has been manipulated to give "meaningful" statistical results regarding the amount of people dying in the US  ......  what a joke!

Did you notice it took her about a minute and a half to "promote" her book !!

There have been studies done on these type of psychological leeches and how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis ...... Scary indeed !!


----------



## Chalea

barney said:


> Its scary isn't it...... Scary indeed !!


----------



## barney

> =Chalea




Chalea, we could go on like this for days:

*Paul Gunter *has been an anti-nuclear activist for over *30 years *..... Is his opinion un-biassed???

As i said, I respect your choice to be anti-nuclear, but these videos of anti-nuclear folk prove nothing more than if I, or others posters posted up pro-nuclear videos !!

ps. If these people admitted they were "Short" Uranium stocks with their own cash, I would have more respect for their opinions ....... are they? ... I doubt it !


----------



## Donga

Incredible how gullible people can be, and extremely galling when they masquerade as intelligent saviours. Suspect the same front lobe dynamics as religious nutters of any persuasion. 

Sunshine, I love sunshine and all forms of renewables and can't wait until they can power the world, especially the hundreds of millions in northern hemi winter and the booming billions of the re-emerging economies. In the meantime, the sooner we switch to safe nuclear (think about that notion sunshine and do some research) and save hundreds of thousands of lives from coal each year the better. 

Won't even get onto greenhouse gasses and the like and btw note wind power has killed more people than nuclear energy in the past 10 years, google it.  As for 12,000 deaths from Fukushima in the US, you really have to be joking or very gullible.


----------



## tech/a

The Glass guy seems to be one of the few who have noticed the 80% move to the upside
PEN has enjoyed over the last week or so.
Not many stocks doing that!


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> The Glass guy seems to be one of the few who have noticed the 80% move to the upside
> PEN has enjoyed over the last week or so.
> Not many stocks doing that!




No not many, but many have noticed PENs move up...some even making money out of it  ;-)

Happy new year to you to by the way, I did notice your glum response to my general interest topic as did your cohort lol. 

You may not like fundamental drivers but get ready for them regardless, as they are coming. Some will take notice and some won't, but hey who gives a toss.

Harden up chaps, money to be made this year and I am off to a flying start with both PEN and NWE and few nice trades on the likes of SSN and especially HOR toward the end of 2011.

Happy trading and taking the mickey out of each other, I see it is rampant here as usual lol 

ps. Chalea whats the low for PEN this year and when? I will note it in my calendar


----------



## LostMyShirt

barney said:


> Its scary isn't it ........ a 14 week window of data has been manipulated to give "meaningful" statistical results regarding the amount of people dying in the US  ......  what a joke!
> 
> Did you notice it took her about a minute and a half to "promote" her book !!
> 
> There have been studies done on these type of psychological leeches and how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis ...... Scary indeed !!




Typically the first thing they do is move to see how it will affect themselves, on the other side of the planet. The whole interview made me laugh. 

Anyway, so;

A. Meltdown in Fukushima
B. Radiation causes leukemia
C. Rate of Leukemia in the US rises a slight percentage

Therefore Fukushima caused Leukemia's rise in the USA thus costing 14000 lives?

Bit of a leap here - sounds like bad logic to me.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> No not many, but many have noticed PENs move up...some even making money out of it  ;-)
> 
> Happy new year to you to by the way, I did notice your glum response to my general interest topic as did your cohort lol.
> 
> You may not like fundamental drivers but get ready for them regardless, as they are coming. Some will take notice and some won't, but hey who gives a toss.
> 
> Harden up chaps, money to be made this year and I am off to a flying start with both PEN and NWE and few nice trades on the likes of SSN and especially HOR toward the end of 2011.
> 
> Happy trading and taking the mickey out of each other, I see it is rampant here as usual lol
> 
> ps. Chalea whats the low for PEN this year and when? I will note it in my calendar




Nice one hangseng.

Been following you, but buying and selling on dips and ups. Makes my bottom line look very respectable.

gg


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> The Glass guy seems to be one of the few who have noticed the 80% move to the upside
> PEN has enjoyed over the last week or so.
> Not many stocks doing that!




May have been some very intense hoping that no one was noticing!!


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Nice one hangseng.
> 
> Been following you, but buying and selling on dips and ups. Makes my bottom line look very respectable.
> 
> gg




Still following GG? 

Nice move up again today.

For the unknowing... or the not wanting to know...

Pen's latest announcement is telling. If they prove up high flow rates as they believe they will then a Capex reduction of around 20% could be achieved. Also this DDW will remain in place as part of production and they will have installed part of the initial wellfields as a part of the testing.

Here is the best bit...

I have long stated PEN would be able to proceed to early construction. IMO they will do so post the next board meeting in March. At this meeting it is almost certain now IMO that the decision to mine will be made and that they will announce early construction.

Now 3 directors have bought recently with the MD buying over $103,000 at market. Why did they do this for such a "dead duck" stock as so many here on ASF comment?

Get ready for a surprise IMO. One smile for each of the announcements I expect to see over the next few months
1. Early construction 
2. Decision to mine 
3. Funding 
4. confirmation of DDW test success.

One smiley just for Chalea  ....simply because I can

See you all in March.


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> Now 3 directors have bought recently with the MD buying over $103,000 at market. Why did they do this for such a "dead duck" stock *as so many here on ASF comment?*




And some only comment when it is going up


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> And some only comment when it is going up





Boggo I have been posting on PEN since 2006 here and elsewhere through thick and thin. It seems the johnny come lately's like yourself have no memory.

Just keep throwing the crap, the last laugh will be all mine.


----------



## notting

hangseng said:


> 3. Funding




???


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> Boggo I have been posting on PEN since 2006 here and elsewhere through thick and thin. It seems the johnny come lately's like yourself have no memory.
> 
> Just keep throwing the crap, the last laugh will be all mine.




Sorry, as an observer of pattern behaviour I did notice some consistency in the timing of your last three postings as noted on the chart below.


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> Boggo I have been posting on PEN since 2006 here and elsewhere through thick and thin. It seems the johnny come lately's like yourself have no memory.
> 
> Just keep throwing the crap, the last laugh will be all mine.




Your a genius
You've "evidently" averaged from 3.6 c to 11c to 16 c then Back all the way down.

I doubt your in profit.

You've watched 600% profit fall to a loss!!!!
*Twice*.

Yet the technical boys have been spot on the whole time.
If you'd been an astute trader you'd have sold at 12 c and be back in at around the 3 c  

But " thick and thin" holds on in *HOPE*
You bluff yourself with questionable knowledge.

Anyone who is capable of blowing his trumpet after watching his holding which is up 600 % fall to zero twice really needs to re evaluate his self opinion.

6 th Jan I picked it so here I am NO WORSE OFF THAN YOU!


Pull your head in
We trade ---- you hope.
The analysis has always been relative to the stock at the time -- positive and negative.
We can see both sides.
You ---- you are a regurgitator with no knowledge of the art of trading.

So before slinging in our direction--- I think you need to show some humility
Your not that good!
*In fact your god awful.*

Your pretty good at dishing it out
About time we/I had a say.


----------



## hangseng

Oh tech/a you have been dishing it out on a personal basis here longer than I care to remember. "pull your head in" is something that could have been said of you quite some time ago. Yes the TA posters are always right...after the fact. Bloody geniuses all, must be one wealthy bunch is all I can say. 

One wonders why when so damn successful you all find the need to post on a penny stock forum. I dare say a fair amout of hindsight BS goes on rather than actually trading.

You have no idea at all what I do, yet you assume to know all. That in itself is the height of arrogance, the latter of which you are particuarly good at.  As for awful, I am very pleased with my SMSF performance having increased a nice percentage in the last year, compared to most super funds that have gone backwards. 

No complaints from me, PEN hit 2.7 and now 4.5 up over 70%.  I wonder what geniuses here picked that up. Looking at the BS posts I would say not one except maybe GG. Yes geniuses all with no idea at all unless it is on a chart AFTER the fact.

Quite touching that I have made the charts boggo ROLOL...

Watch and learn children...None so blind that will not see.

I dare say as your "charts don't show it" you will all be wondering why NWE took off when it happens. Some things charts and TA geniuses simply don't see because they don't look. Simply hindsight wizards.

have a great day, back to the trade desk for me. This is fun but it doesn't fill the bank acc.


----------



## tech/a

H/S
Dont know what it is you think is so clever.
Your in no better position than any of us.
Your average is I would say from your posts 
greater than 3c.
So your on the ground floor after 2 yrs??
Just like anyone else.

look and learn.

Youve already taught me and many here heaps.

(1) Dont fall in love with your stock
(2) Have a trailing stop.
(3) Dont average down
(4) Dont put all your eggs in 1 basket.
(5) Markets can and do change.

Thanks.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a all I care about is my bank account and it is doing rather well at present.

Unlike you and your abusive cohorts I concentrate on making money out of stocks, not waste my time attempting to analyse posters.

You still have no idea at all about me nor what I have nor what I do. You and your mates were canning me long before PEN hit 16 and still doing so, the party isn't over yet, it has just begun. But your charts won't show you that.

I do recall one stroke of genius on your behalf earlier in 2011. Where you stated you bought (at around 11.5 from memory) then sold equally as quick at a loss then PEN went up again. What a great trader jumping at shadows LOL.

Just stick to what you (think) you know best. You truly have no idea about this old bloke...you just like to think you do.

So give us all the benefit of your wisdom in TA and tell us where PEN is heading now and whee it will be in March for instance. Shouldn't be too difficult for the TA geniuses here. We alraeady know Chaleas it is always sub 2c no matter where PEN is. He has a chorus on the "other" forum now as well proclaiming a "secret indicator" ROLOL! About as credible as the other that proclaimed a "little black box" and in possession of "poison arrows"... charlatans the lot of them!

I think your are all hindsight traders that have no idea of how to assess company fundamentals or assess projects. Your charts won't tell you where this is all heading, if they did why not put it up in lights for all to see *now*, not months after it has occurred then proclaim some great brilliance in reading charts.

Not one of you saw the long fall of PEN in 2011, yet post Fukushima so many proclaim they did...BS! What would have occurred in the U industry and with PEN had that event (unrelated to the U industry, it was a Tsinami that caused the deaths and so much damage, not a nuclear accident) had not occurred?

But continue the personal attacks, I WILL have the last laugh, of that I have absolutely no doubt now. This has nothing to do with "falling in love with a stock", another erroneous assumption of the personal attackers both here and afar. However time will tell who was right and who was wrong about PEN, I saw all the same crap with EXT.


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> Sorry, as an observer of pattern behaviour I did notice some consistency in the timing of your last three postings as noted on the chart below.




As I said Johnny come lately, you can't see past a month. But how flattering you take such an new interest in me rather than stocks.


----------



## tech/a

Don't feel special H/S
Many here are just like you
And can associate with the
Poor decisions made

Hope you make your million
-----  or second or third whatever
Your case maybe---


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> You will find him and his mate daffy duck at 9.5c I am sure lol.
> 
> Seriously though tech/a, no chance in hell is that going to occur without a major market crash. There isn't one fundamental (or technical) reason why it would occur otherwise. In fact there are so many imminent reasons fundamentally why it won't occur and it is more likely to head to the 20c Fib extensions as I displayed recently.
> 
> Support at 12.5 has proven solid in very poor market conditions since the 21/2/2011 stochs displays well oversold on the daily chart, OBV continues to rise and buy volume has increased again. How on earth do you believe 9.5c is going to occur?




I think I can see why you no longer favour charting HS, it has obviously let you down and got you in the situation you are now in.
Don't shoot the messenger matey, you got yourself into this with comments such as the one above and charting exploits such as the two examples in the links below, I simply identified the timing of your recent potentially opportunistic posts.

hangseng technical analysis...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=609593&viewfull=1#post609593

and 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=615125&viewfull=1#post615125


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> I think I can see why you no longer favour charting HS, it has obviously let you down and got you in the situation you are now in.
> Don't shoot the messenger matey, you got yourself into this with comments such as the one above and charting exploits such as the two examples in the links below, I simply identified the timing of your recent potentially opportunistic posts.
> 
> hangseng technical analysis...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=609593&viewfull=1#post609593
> 
> and
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=615125&viewfull=1#post615125





"No longer favour charting"....Who says I don't? Again another erroneous assumption. I don't favour one without the other, that is a big mistake IMO and has served me very well using both.

"got you in the situation you are now in"...Oh I like that! What situation would that be Boggo? Responding to childish poster chasers such as yourself maybe?

Thanks for posting those Boggo, clearly you can't read english or you would be pointing out the disclaimer on the chart as well of which as it turned out occurred. Sometimes it comes off and sometimes it doesn't, simply the way it is. One clearly did as it was the 4th of Feb when PEN was at 11.5 and then went on to 15.5 on the 16/2...Not a bad call after all eh.

Also I note tech/A liked the chart at that time, posting AFTER my chart and posting his own obviously positively _"Damn thats a good looking chart." _ So you better bounce him as well eh. 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=609605&viewfull=1#post609605

Obviously though, you (think you are) are a perfectionist and must be a wealthy one at that as you ALWAYS get it right eh? I think not, go away and look at the snail trail you have left behind of losing trades. No sign of boggo at that time though, I wonder why LOL.

Eddie the experts that never lose and always win...Bulldust!

Keep it up kids...

Of late many trades out there if you are game and willing to wait for the herd to catch up. My best at the end of 2011 was HOR, entered in Nov at .19 on FA and chart showing oversold and exited when the herd arrived at 37.5 and the long wick was forming. Yes charts can be of assistance, but they aren't the be all and end all that is professed here. It is merely another method.

NWE will be my next and PEN has done me particularly well of late (and GG it seems) and will continue to. 

I don't fall in love with stocks, nor do I take any notice of chest beating chartists that profess to be experts in everything and never lose. Especially when the best they can do is personally attack posters and post nothing on the stock.

Forgive me for thinking so, but I thought forums were for stock chat and sharing information. Clearly I am misinformed and it is now only for personally attacking posters.

Is this what ASF has become? If so then I won't be a part of it for much longer.


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> *Eddie the experts that never lose and always win...Bulldust!*
> 
> Keep it up kids...
> 
> Of late many trades out there if you are game and willing to wait for the herd to catch up. My best at the end of 2011 was HOR, entered in Nov at .19 on FA and chart showing oversold and exited when the herd arrived at 37.5 and the long wick was forming. Yes charts can be of assistance, but they aren't the be all and end all that is professed here.
> 
> Is this what ASF has become? If so then I won't be a part of it for much longer.




*Do you read what you type out???*

You make a point then go right ahead and 
And do exactly what your accusing others of.

Interesting that you've NEVER posted on the HOG thread???
200% profit and not a word--- yet here you dominate??

My posts are relevant and you have served as a living example of poor trading/investing.
If a single trader learns from these pages then it has been well worthwhile.

H/S strange all of a sudden on HOG
You buy cheap and sell into the muppets?

Yet with PEN you couldn't do that Twice?

I'm beginning to have my doubts that you actually trade?----anything.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> *Do you read what you type out???*
> 
> You make a point then go right ahead and
> And do exactly what your accusing others of.
> 
> Interesting that you've NEVER posted on the HOG thread???
> 200% profit and not a word--- yet here you dominate??
> 
> My posts are relevant and you have served as a living example of poor trading/investing.
> If a single trader learns from these pages then it has been well worthwhile.
> 
> H/S strange all of a sudden on HOG
> You buy cheap and sell into the muppets?
> 
> Yet with PEN you couldn't do that Twice?
> 
> I'm beginning to have my doubts that you actually trade?----anything.




I know this may come as a shock to you tech but ASF isn't t only forum around. Oh and the stock is HO*R*, not HOG. 

How do you know I have never traded PEN, or any other stock for that matter? You don't know me from a bar of soap, yet you make constant (wrong)  personal assumptions. As for selling to "muppets" your derogatory term not mine. I sell into momentum traders, not wait for stocks to rise and then buy as you did with PEN and failed.

As far as "dominating the PEN threads, have a look at yourself over the last few months. I am but a part timer compared to you and others here.

Point is simple tech. I post FA information in the main and occasionally my TA view and you et al get personally abusive. You have no idea of FA and clearly you state you don't care about it. What makes you so high and mighty that only TA data can be displayed, even then you have a go like you are the god of TA. I can see why you stay away from the other site as you wouldn't last 5 minutes without getting chopped down to size. I am not one of the newbie wallflowers as you post to so often here and won't take your nonsense quietly.

If you don't like the comeback cut the crap tech. I have never been the one to start personal abuse here, but you and your mate boggo are chart toppers in that category.

If you can't take the heat get out of the fire. I really don't give a crap what you think of me. As you don't know me and make constant wrong assumptions and allegations.

ASF has gone downhill fast IMO, a place I once regarded highly. Now dominated by holier than thou TA posters abusing other posters.

Chalea is in good company...


----------



## theartglasshouse

Honestly...coming to the stock threads is like watching a squabbling bunch of married couples...

Suck it up and realise everyone makes a few bad trades (or more) and get over it! No one is perfect...

This tit for tat crap is the saddest thing I have ever seen. This T/A and F/A etc BS is ridiculous...Each to his own  trading styles (which we all change)...

The personal slanging matches that I see on the majority of these forums is like watching a bunch of Grades 7's trying to get into the cool club...

Well I am off now to watch Glee and dream...off better pastures...


----------



## Joe Blow

I have removed a few posts in this thread as they were unrelated to PEN. I have also issued an official warning to one thread participant who seems consistently unable to control his anger.

All posts in this thread should be both civil and on topic. Criticize the content of someone's post by all means, but do not attack them personally or deliberately provoke them.


----------



## Miner

Joe Blow said:


> I have removed a few posts in this thread as they were unrelated to PEN. I have also issued an official warning to one thread participant who seems consistently unable to control his anger.
> 
> All posts in this thread should be both civil and on topic. Criticize the content of someone's post by all means, but do not attack them personally or deliberately provoke them.





Thanks Joe for your intervention.

There have been a concerted personal attack on HS and whosoever supports PEN by few posters one of them being anti nuclear campaigner with no holding on PEN. One of the posters now seen missing. Probably he or she has been debarred from ASF by you .

I personally tried to flag your attention to some of the unacceptable comments by one particular poster against all and HS. Probably you were too  busy to action them

THe current note and action from you is a much belated one but better than never.

Thanks again for bringing back the ASF flavour to the forum,


----------



## tech/a

Chugging along nicely

Need to see how it reacts to resistance


----------



## namrog

> Helped myself to a small parcel at .031, stop at breakeven so it can do as it likes now..:




Moved Stop to .036 now.

Should be looking to pyramid, but in the current uneasy climate, with Europe and the problems with the Euro far from settled, I'm hesitant to add more to a spec like PEN at the moment, though that could change if it broke and held over 6 cents regardless of the big picture......


----------



## hangseng

PEN now strong at 5.3 broken 5c resistance convincingly. 5.3 from the 2.7, not too shabby one would think. Next stop indicated at 7.5c


----------



## junhan

i exited @4.0c 2days before it shot to 4.5c and now its 5.4c, now im wondering if its too late to buy : | 

really bad timing on my part


----------



## hangseng

junhan said:


> i exited @4.0c 2days before it shot to 4.5c and now its 5.4c, now im wondering if its too late to buy : |
> 
> really bad timing on my part





Some may say it has overshot, but they were also saying that at 4.7/4.8. I see PEN more likely now to at least hit 6.5 short term then maybe a slight pull back before heading to around 7.5.

Director Mal James again buying another million at market at 5.2 and penoa now "in the money". PEN VWAP now 5.34 PENOA at 2.3/2.4. OA's not without risk, however with the largest individual OA's holder being the CEO I am banking on Gus converting.

If you believe in following the "smart money" then follow the directors, three of them now buying at market recently and Mal James twice. If not then don't buy I guess. A mater of who to believe...Directors who are buying at market or posters that know nothing of the companies fundamentals saying PEN is a dog stock?  Each to their own.

I do like it when short term exponential moving averages head up and cross long term EMA's.


----------



## junhan

hangseng said:


> Some may say it has overshot, but they were also saying that at 4.7/4.8. I see PEN more likely now to at least hit 6.5 short term then maybe a slight pull back before heading to around 7.5.
> 
> Director Mal James again buying another million at market at 5.2 and penoa now "in the money". PEN VWAP now 5.34 PENOA at 2.3/2.4. OA's not without risk, however with the largest individual OA's holder being the CEO I am banking on Gus converting.
> 
> If you believe in following the "smart money" then follow the directors, three of them now buying at market recently and Mal James twice. If not then don't buy I guess. A mater of who to believe...Directors who are buying at market or posters that know nothing of the companies fundamentals saying PEN is a dog stock?  Each to their own.
> 
> I do like it when short term exponential moving averages head up and cross long term EMA's.




thanks hs , i do agree that the tech looks good but i sure hope this isnt a false breakout.

anyways im following you on nwe, when do we expect to see some positive news?


----------



## hangseng

junhan said:


> thanks hs , i do agree that the tech looks good but i sure hope this isnt a false breakout.
> 
> anyways im following you on nwe, when do we expect to see some positive news?




Minister back on Monday.


----------



## tech/a

Caution stop at .049


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;677226 21st-December-2011 07:40 PM  said:
			
		

> You'll have at least a few months to -
> a) "Top up" and
> b) Witness a re-test of 2.5c
> *'IF' it holds then you'll have the makings of a base for the next pump and dump...*



Daily chart - Bearish Harami Cross pattern. *Gap @ 3.0c*

Click chart



Weekly chart - Bullish MACD cross was the catalyst of this *dead cat bounce*. Meaningless until the center line is crossed.
Like four years ago, the upper Bollinger Band provides solid resistance.
Like four years ago, the lower Bollinger Band, (@ 3.0c), will be revisited.

Click chart



:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Caution stop at .049




I still like PEN to around 10c.
Analysis alters below .38c
I've adjusted my stop to .48 just below the Gap.


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> Like four years ago, the lower Bollinger Band, (@ 3.0c), will be revisited.





Now when would that be Chalea so I can plan accordingly? I find that prospect rather exciting, especially with fore warning and a date to work off. Otherwise if PEN hit 3c for whatever reason in 10 years time you would say your analysis was right, and that wouldn't be right now would it.

I see that PEN liked to hug that BB all the way to 15.5, interesting. Another TA poster elsewhere stated he sold at 4.8 recently as PEN was _"overcooked"_ and _"too far outside the BB" the same posters TA said BLR was heading up and it went down as I said it would..._I guess he was wrong..twice.

Love to see your timeline for this 3c prediction.

But hey if the Euro falters and the US pulls QE3 in July as expected (watch if they start selling off GE stock) who knows you may well be right. But then it will be all stocks getting hit hard not just PEN.

You say 3c tech like 10c...interesting how TA has many facets of prediction and subjectiveness.

I wonder what the sp will be based on fundamental drivers in March, such as decision to mine, early construction and who knows maybe even funding. I will go halfway and say the directors first 8c bonus target will get hit.

Let's see who's subjective view is right, so when is it Chalea?


----------



## tech/a

H/S

T/A used correctly is a map.
(Not many T/As are good exponents they have inferior maps.)

If the map doesn't pan out then you do something else.
Everyone who uses T/A will be wrong--Im wrong often.
Its what you do when your both correct and in correct that matters.

Thats why F/A people think T/A traders are like women---changing their minds like they are switching pairs of shoes.

The evidence shown to a T/A will alter daily.
For some of us every minute.

Its about 
Prove 
Disprove
Prove 
Disprove.

As you'll note I have a point where the analysis is wrong and a point where my risk to profit is un acceptable---to me!--why--because I actually trade!


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> ...I wonder what the sp will be based on fundamental drivers in March, such as decision to mine, early construction and who knows maybe even funding. I will go halfway and say the directors first 8c bonus target will get hit.
> 
> Let's see who's subjective view is right, so when is it Chalea?




LOL, how can you seriously still bang on about fundamental drivers after last year's debacle?

Timeline? Imminently...


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> LOL, how can you seriously still bang on about fundamental drivers after last year's debacle?
> 
> Timeline?




"Don’t get carried away with uranium rally

After months of dreadful performance, uranium stocks have staged a welcome rally so far in 2012. It is one of the first signs of life in the sector since the Fukushima disaster last March...
...“While we too think there will be a bull market in the future, it is likely that this rally is somewhat premature and that recent gains may be pared back if the uranium spot price does not back up the equity gains”...
...excess inventories in Japan pose a risk to prices, as does a potential increase in sales by the U.S. government."

Link


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> LOL, how can you seriously still bang on about fundamental drivers after last year's debacle?
> 
> Timeline? Imminently...




Oh I see you "bang on" about your targets for years on end and get it wrong (predicting PEN to sub 2c when all the time it rose to 15,5) then when one happens totally unrelated to your 3 year old TA it was your TA prediction...yeah sure it was.

No date, not even a guess? Come on give it a try...be a devil and put your head on the block instead of being a fence sitter. besides I need to plan this purchase on your predicted fall.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> H/S
> 
> T/A used correctly is a map.
> (Not many T/As are good exponents they have inferior maps.)
> 
> If the map doesn't pan out then you do something else.
> Everyone who uses T/A will be wrong--Im wrong often.
> Its what you do when your both correct and in correct that matters.
> 
> Thats why F/A people think T/A traders are like women---changing their minds like they are switching pairs of shoes.
> 
> The evidence shown to a T/A will alter daily.
> For some of us every minute.
> 
> Its about
> Prove
> Disprove
> Prove
> Disprove.
> 
> As you'll note I have a point where the analysis is wrong and a point where my risk to profit is un acceptable---to me!--why--because I actually trade!







> Everyone who uses T/A will be wrong--Im wrong often.




Me included occasionally, now you have my respectful attention on that comment.

You aren't the only one that trades though tech so don't think you are special doing so. You have company whether you like it or not. I may not trade often, in fact I know compared to some I hardly ever trade, but I do when I see a worthwhile setup for me. I don't trade daily just for the heck of it as some seem to.

Nice and simple uncomplicated TA and sound fundamentals seem to be doing it for me. The combination of the two IMO is a winner, one without the other is definitely not for me. Akin to dart throwing with dark glasses and the lights out IMO. But that's what makes the market we all have individual strategies and risk profiles.


----------



## chakvetadze

_"Nice and simple uncomplicated TA and sound fundamentals seem to be doing it for me. The combination of the two IMO is a winner, one without the other is definitely not for me."_

Hangseng,
Then why did you hold from double digits down to sub 3c? Technically there were many sell signals along the way. You ignored all of them and stood in front of the moving train.


----------



## tech/a

chakvetadze said:


> _"Nice and simple uncomplicated TA and sound fundamentals seem to be doing it for me. The combination of the two IMO is a winner, one without the other is definitely not for me."_
> 
> Hangseng,
> Then why did you hold from double digits down to sub 3c? Technically there were many sell signals along the way. You ignored all of them and stood in front of the moving train.




And Fundamentally
If you don't USE either ------ 

Good question


----------



## hangseng

chakvetadze said:


> _"Nice and simple uncomplicated TA and sound fundamentals seem to be doing it for me. The combination of the two IMO is a winner, one without the other is definitely not for me."_
> 
> Hangseng,
> Then why did you hold from double digits down to sub 3c? Technically there were many sell signals along the way. You ignored all of them and stood in front of the moving train.




chak, another that wants to jump on the have a go at HS brigade.

You don't know me, nor do you KNOW what I did and did not do.  You like so many others have no idea what I did, or do. You just like to have a go and make assumptive statements without any idea at all.

Here is something novel, why not post on the stock as this is "Aussie *STOCK* forums" is it not.

If you can't contribute meanigful TA or FA, as seemingly you can't by that post, then why post at all.


----------



## tech/a

> If you can't contribute meanigful TA or FA, as seemingly you can't by that post, then why post at all.




Sound advice you should take it.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> You don't know me, nor do you KNOW what I did and did not do.  You like so many others have no idea what I did, or do. You just like to have a go and make assumptive statements without any idea at all.
> 
> If you can't contribute meanigful TA or FA, as seemingly you can't by that post, then why post at all.




Help me here, I'm looking for some "meanigful" (sic) TA or FA...

"I have long waited for this day...

Ever wondered why I never once wavered in my belief in PEN?

Why my belief that a small company I came across that was seemingly unloved by the market had outstanding management and potential?

Why my belief that nuclear energy was the way of the future world energy needs and that the uranium price would rebound strongly?

Why my belief that ISR mining would win ahead of conventional mining die to the notably lower Opex and Capex of this mining process?

Why my unwavering belief that both 'Sundance' (now the Lance Project, Wyoming) and Karoo S.A. would turn a penny dreadful play thing of book posting day traders into a company of investment and real investors?

Why my belief in my own research and continuing faith in myself that I had made the right decision to invest so much into PEN?

Why I ignored the negative sentiment and noise of forums and analysts that simply called it wrong regarding the uranium industry?

Why I challenged openly the many that bagged PEN (and me) and tried to personally discredit the MD Gus Simpson, a person I now admire and respect greatly. Many of them with blatantly false information and some even openly lying under the guise of multi-nics?

Why I continued to buy when PEN was sold off and never once panicked and tried to convince others not to let negative sentiment get to them and just believe in their own research.

Why when others were saying sell as PEN went down, I was buying?


Simple...

Dare to believe in yourself and your dreams...Just believe."


* Forgive me for not Drinking the Kool-Aid!!!*

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Sound advice you should take it.





Your post is what then tech, TA or FA? Pointless crap again and simply another dig is what it is, also nothing to do with PEN. This is the PEN thread I take it, not the tech/a gossip column.

PEN is now looking very positive and heading into a key fundamental reporting period, as I stated previously. On the back of this I can see PEN giving the next resistance levels a rather hefty nudge after 5c getting good support today. With 5.9/6c being the first that will take some doing to break through. Then if it breaks 7/7.2 and then on the the controversial 8c mark, the directors first performance bonus target. 

I wonder why the directors have been buying of late, three of them and one of them twice.

BOT now taking an interest again in PENOA, of which am now of the opinion will in the main get converted to PEN as PEN rises into the expiry period.

James Dines now talking of $130 uranium and PEN like all U stocks following the U price in synch.

Interesting times ahead I can see, hopefully with some meaningful TA/FA discussion.


Chalea are you writing a biography or do you have a target date for your "prediction" of PEN going lower?  This is going to be interesting. All the time you called PEN to 2c, PEN kept rising all the way to 15.5. So what is to be this time around in the Chalea tea leaves?


----------



## Miner

Chalea said:


> Help me here, I'm looking for some "meanigful" (sic) TA or FA...
> 
> "I have long waited for this day...
> 
> Ever wondered why I never once wavered in my belief in PEN?
> 
> Why my belief that a small company I came across that was seemingly unloved by the market had outstanding management and potential?
> 
> Why my belief that nuclear energy was the way of the future world energy needs and that the uranium price would rebound strongly?
> 
> Why my belief that ISR mining would win ahead of conventional mining die to the notably lower Opex and Capex of this mining process?
> 
> Why my unwavering belief that both 'Sundance' (now the Lance Project, Wyoming) and Karoo S.A. would turn a penny dreadful play thing of book posting day traders into a company of investment and real investors?
> 
> Why my belief in my own research and continuing faith in myself that I had made the right decision to invest so much into PEN?
> 
> Why I ignored the negative sentiment and noise of forums and analysts that simply called it wrong regarding the uranium industry?
> 
> Why I challenged openly the many that bagged PEN (and me) and tried to personally discredit the MD Gus Simpson, a person I now admire and respect greatly. Many of them with blatantly false information and some even openly lying under the guise of multi-nics?
> 
> Why I continued to buy when PEN was sold off and never once panicked and tried to convince others not to let negative sentiment get to them and just believe in their own research.
> 
> Why when others were saying sell as PEN went down, I was buying?
> 
> 
> Simple...
> 
> Dare to believe in yourself and your dreams...Just believe."
> 
> 
> * Forgive me for not Drinking the Kool-Aid!!!*
> 
> :bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi




Please return to PEN with some constructive input.
Please stop your negative shells.
PEN has rose contrary to your speculative charting . 
Either you are in or out, but no pessism or personal vendatta please. 
ASF is downsliding now compared it was one year back . One of the reasons quality of posters. 
You can send abusive targets to me - but I don't care.
Once again please put some constructive on PEN. I do when I can otherwise stay on side line.

Thanks for your understanding and team spirit


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> Chalea are you writing a biography or do you have a target date for your "prediction" of PEN going lower?  This is going to be interesting. All the time you called PEN to 2c, PEN kept rising all the way to 15.5. So what is to be this time around in the Chalea tea leaves?




Am I missing something here?

Didn't PEN hit 2.5c last month, as predicted?

It will revisit that level imminently as this chart clearly shows!

Just believe...





:bananasmi


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea, your repeated mockery of 'imminently' is no longer relevant as that is the past. You'd do your credibility some good by giving a timeframe for your price predictions as Hangseng has suggested.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Chalea, your repeated mockery of 'imminently' is no longer relevant as that is the past. You'd do your credibility some good by giving a timeframe for your price predictions as Hangseng has suggested.



My credibility on this thread is preeminent...


----------



## notting

*Credibility* goes to those who believe in themselves and their analysis enough to have traded it and better still made money on it.
Other wise your just a *masterbeta*- someone who puts their hand in their pocket and brings it out *wet* and trembling rather than with money in it *to put on the table and do it for real!*!
Ya all know which one you are:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

notting said:


> *Credibility* goes to those who believe in themselves and their analysis enough to have traded it and better still made money on it.
> Other wise your just a *masterbeta*- someone who puts their hand in their pocket and brings it out *wet* and trembling rather than with money in it *to put on the table and do it for real!*!
> Ya all know which one you are:bananasmi




You don't know me, nor do you KNOW what I did and did not do. You like so many others have no idea what I did, or do. You just like to have a go and make assumptive statements without any idea at all.

mmm... Kool-Aid :drink:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "Don’t get carried away with uranium rally. After months of dreadful performance, it is likely that this rally is somewhat premature and that recent gains may be pared back if the uranium spot price does not back up the equity gains”...
> ...excess inventories in Japan pose a risk to prices, as does a potential increase in sales by the U.S. government."Link



"Japan will lose its last nuclear- generated power in April at the current rate of shutting down reactors for safety checks, cheering opponents of the industry after the Fukushima disaster...

“If we experience a zero-nuclear situation the argument that we don’t need nuclear power anymore will be stronger,”" 

Link

The imminent mountain of excess uranium must surely have a negative impact on the price of uranium.

It will undoubtedly cause PEN's 3.0c gap to be filled! 

:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> “we don’t need nuclear power anymore”






:microwave


----------



## mickqld

Maybe we should just turn out all the lights.

 I know if I had to live next to either a coal fired plant or a nuclear plant which one I would choose. The media hysteria over Fukushima is a joke compared to the cancers and deaths being caused by coal fired power stations.




http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste




Coal Ash Is More Radioactive than Nuclear Waste

By burning away all the pesky carbon and other impurities, coal power plants produce heaps of radiation

 By Mara Hvistendahl  | December 13, 2007 |115
CONCENTRATED RADIATION: By burning coal into ash, power plants concentrate the trace amounts of radioactive elements within the black rock.Image:  ©ISTOCKPHOTO.COM

The popular conception of nuclear power is straight out of The Simpsons: Springfield abounds with signs of radioactivity, from the strange glow surrounding Mr. Burn's nuclear power plant workers to Homer's low sperm count. Then there's the local superhero, Radioactive Man, who fires beams of "nuclear heat" from his eyes. Nuclear power, many people think, is inseparable from a volatile, invariably lime-green, mutant-making radioactivity.

Coal, meanwhile, is believed responsible for a host of more quotidian problems, such as mining accidents, acid rain and greenhouse gas emissions. But it isn't supposed to spawn three-eyed fish like Blinky.

Over the past few decades, however, a series of studies has called these stereotypes into question. Among the surprising conclusions: the waste produced by coal plants is actually more radioactive than that generated by their nuclear counterparts. In fact, the fly ash emitted by a power plant””a by-product from burning coal for electricity””carries into the surrounding environment 100 times more radiation than a nuclear power plant producing the same amount of energy. * [See Editor's Note at end of page 2]

At issue is coal's content of uranium and thorium, both radioactive elements. They occur in such trace amounts in natural, or "whole," coal that they aren't a problem. But when coal is burned into fly ash, uranium and thorium are concentrated at up to 10 times their original levels.

Fly ash uranium sometimes leaches into the soil and water surrounding a coal plant, affecting cropland and, in turn, food. People living within a "stack shadow"””the area within a half- to one-mile (0.8- to 1.6-kilometer) radius of a coal plant's smokestacks””might then ingest small amounts of radiation. Fly ash is also disposed of in landfills and abandoned mines and quarries, posing a potential risk to people living around those areas.

In a 1978 paper for Science, J. P. McBride at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and his colleagues looked at the uranium and thorium content of fly ash from coal-fired power plants in Tennessee and Alabama. To answer the question of just how harmful leaching could be, the scientists estimated radiation exposure around the coal plants and compared it with exposure levels around boiling-water reactor and pressurized-water nuclear power plants.

The result: estimated radiation doses ingested by people living near the coal plants were equal to or higher than doses for people living around the nuclear facilities. At one extreme, the scientists estimated fly ash radiation in individuals' bones at around 18 millirems (thousandths of a rem, a unit for measuring doses of ionizing radiation) a year. Doses for the two nuclear plants, by contrast, ranged from between three and six millirems for the same period. And when all food was grown in the area, radiation doses were 50 to 200 percent higher around the coal plants.

McBride and his co-authors estimated that individuals living near coal-fired installations are exposed to a maximum of 1.9 millirems of fly ash radiation yearly. To put these numbers in perspective, the average person encounters 360 millirems of annual "background radiation" from natural and man-made sources, including substances in Earth's crust, cosmic rays, residue from nuclear tests and smoke detectors.

Dana Christensen, associate lab director for energy and engineering at ORNL, says that health risks from radiation in coal by-products are low. "Other risks like being hit by lightning," he adds, "are three or four times greater than radiation-induced health effects from coal plants." And McBride and his co-authors emphasize that other products of coal power, like emissions of acid rain–producing sulfur dioxide and smog-forming nitrous oxide, pose greater health risks than radiation

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains an online database of fly ash–based uranium content for sites across the U.S. In most areas, the ash contains less uranium than some common rocks. In Tennessee's Chattanooga shale, for example, there is more uranium in phosphate rock.

Robert Finkelman, a former USGS coordinator of coal quality who oversaw research on uranium in fly ash in the 1990s, says that for the average person the by-product accounts for a miniscule amount of background radiation, probably less than 0.1 percent of total background radiation exposure. According to USGS calculations, buying a house in a stack shadow””in this case within 0.6 mile [one kilometer] of a coal plant””increases the annual amount of radiation you're exposed to by a maximum of 5 percent. But that's still less than the radiation encountered in normal yearly exposure to X-rays.

So why does coal waste appear so radioactive? It's a matter of comparison: The chances of experiencing adverse health effects from radiation are slim for both nuclear and coal-fired power plants””they're just somewhat higher for the coal ones. "You're talking about one chance in a billion for nuclear power plants," Christensen says. "And it's one in 10 million to one in a hundred million for coal plants."

Radiation from uranium and other elements in coal might only form a genuine health risk to miners, Finkelman explains. "It's more of an occupational hazard than a general environmental hazard," he says. "The miners are surrounded by rocks and sloshing through ground water that is exuding radon."

Developing countries like India and China continue to unveil new coal-fired plants””at the rate of one every seven to 10 days in the latter nation. And the U.S. still draws around half of its electricity from coal. But coal plants have an additional strike against them: they emit harmful greenhouse gases.

With the world now focused on addressing climate change, nuclear power is gaining favor in some circles. China aims to quadruple nuclear capacity to 40,000 megawatts by 2020, and the U.S. may build as many as 30 new reactors in the next several decades. But, although the risk of a nuclear core meltdown is very low, the impact of such an event creates a stigma around the noncarbon power source.

The question boils down to the accumulating impacts of daily incremental pollution from burning coal or the small risk but catastrophic consequences of even one nuclear meltdown. "I suspect we'll hear more about this rivalry," Finkelman says. "More coal will be mined in the future. And those ignorant of the issues, or those who have a vested interest in other forms of energy, may be tempted to raise these issues again."

*Editor's Note (posted 12/30/08): In response to some concerns raised by readers, a change has been made to this story. The sentence marked with an asterisk was changed from "In fact, fly ash””a by-product from burning coal for power””and other coal waste contains up to 100 times more radiation than nuclear waste" to "In fact, the fly ash emitted by a power plant””a by-product from burning coal for electricity””carries into the surrounding environment 100 times more radiation than a nuclear power plant producing the same amount of energy." Our source for this statistic is Dana Christensen, an associate lab director for energy and engineering at Oak Ridge National Laboratory as well as 1978 paper in Science authored by J.P. McBride and colleagues, also of ORNL.

As a general clarification, ounce for ounce, coal ash released from a power plant delivers more radiation than nuclear waste shielded via water or dry cask storage


----------



## tech/a

Chugging along as expected.
Gap acted as support.


----------



## skyQuake

tech/a said:


> Chugging along as expected.
> Gap acted as support.




Yup looks good. Suspect the selling was from appendix 3b oppies exercise sellers.


----------



## Chalea

mickqld said:


> I know if I had to live next to either a coal fired plant or a nuclear plant which one I would choose.




So do I...






	

		
			
		

		
	
  :bad:


----------



## mickqld

Chalea said:


> So do I...
> 
> View attachment 45911
> 
> 
> View attachment 45912
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> :bad:




Yep one spews out radiation every second of every day and one spews out radiation only if there is a once in a hundred year natural disaster.


----------



## Chalea

mickqld said:


> one spews out radiation only if there is a once in a hundred year natural disaster.




The Chile earthquake a year before was just as bad...:nono:

The bulk of nuclear power plants are decrepit & too expensive to replace. 
Sayonara nuclear energy - that's Japanese for goodbye...

"America’s aging nuclear power plants an increasing concern for seismic risks...The risk that an earthquake would cause a severe accident at a U.S. nuclear plant is greater than previously thought, 24 times as high in one case."

Link


----------



## Chalea

mickqld said:


> The popular conception of nuclear power is straight out of The Simpsons... Nuclear power, many people think, is inseparable from a volatile, invariably lime-green, mutant-making radioactivity.




At last we agree!


----------



## mickqld

Ohh dear we have degenerated to farce. Quoting some hysterical leftist website called The Extinction Protocol and throwing up an earless rabbit. Next we'll get scenes from Godzilla movies.


----------



## Chalea

mickqld said:


> Ohh dear we have degenerated to farce. Quoting some hysterical leftist website called The Extinction Protocol and throwing up an earless rabbit. Next we'll get scenes from Godzilla movies.



Click here


----------



## mickqld

Clean energy power plant doesn't even need an earthquake to be lethal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3M0ud-FpmjM&feature=related


----------



## mickqld

Deadly power plants? Study fuels debate 

Thousands of early deaths tied to emissions




Coal-fired power plants like the Tennessee Valley Authority's Cumberland Fossil Plant near Clarksville, Tenn., are cited in a new report as contributing to thousands of premature deaths each yea
WASHINGTON ”” Health problems linked to aging coal-fired power plants shorten nearly 24,000 lives a year, including 2,800 from lung cancer, and nearly all those early deaths could be prevented if the U.S. government adopted stricter rules.... 


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5174391/ns/us_news-environment/t/deadly-power-plants-study-fuels-debate/


----------



## Chalea

Chalea;681854 07:07 PM said:
			
		

> Daily chart - Bearish Harami Cross pattern. *Gap @ 3.0c*
> View attachment 45888
> 
> 
> Weekly chart - Bullish MACD cross was the catalyst of this *dead cat bounce*. Meaningless until the center line is crossed.
> Like four years ago, the upper Bollinger Band provides solid resistance.
> Like four years ago, the lower Bollinger Band, (@ 3.0c), will be revisited.
> View attachment 45889




"A bearish divergence forms when price records a higher high, but the Stochastic Oscillator forms a lower high. This shows less upside momentum that could foreshadow a bearish reversal."

Link

Click chart




:bananasmi


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> Am I missing something here?
> 
> Didn't PEN hit 2.5c last month, as predicted?




You never "predicted" 2.5c in December 2011. You did call PEN to go down constantly since early 2010 all the time PEN going up. Now you gleen via straw clutching that you "predicted" this post a tsunami event affecting every U stock on the planet. 

Absoulutely laughable.


----------



## Chalea

hangseng said:


> You never "predicted" 2.5c in December 2011.




How soon you forget...

Click here


:thankyou:


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "This shows less upside momentum that could foreshadow a bearish reversal."







:horse:


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Chugging along as expected.



Agreed, RSI uptrend broken...




:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Sayonara nuclear energy




Au revoir nuclear catastrophes!

"Hollande, a former Socialist Party leader and parliamentarian, is the favourite to win the two-stage election in April and May...
The main elements of his programme are: 

*Energy: Reduction of the share of nuclear power in France's energy mix from 75 per cent to 50 per cent by 2025.*"

Click here


----------



## namrog

Respected the 5 cent level again today, not a bad sign, but just in case have moved stop to 4.5 cents, a 50% gain...


----------



## hangseng

Chalea said:


> Agreed, RSI uptrend broken...




RSI rising strongly...I guess some simply never learn.

Watch those MMA's as they might just squash that banana on the way


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea will be back on the slightest down day, we probably won't hear from him today.

HS I trust you are still holding a substantial amount of stock, well done to you. It is a good day for all holders and is a telling sign of things to come.


----------



## skyQuake

Such is the fate of those that put their trust in Indicators


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> The Glass guy seems to be one of the few who have noticed the 80% move to the upside
> PEN has enjoyed over the last week or so.
> Not many stocks doing that!




Not all techies use indicators and I dont know of any profitable ones who use them in short term trading.
So dont put me in the same boat as our resident novice.
Yeh still in it.
Time to move the trailing stop up.


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> Time to move the trailing stop up.


----------



## Miner

Chalea said:


> Au revoir nuclear catastrophes!
> 
> "Hollande, a former Socialist Party leader and parliamentarian, is the favourite to win the two-stage election in April and May...
> The main elements of his programme are:
> 
> *Energy: Reduction of the share of nuclear power in France's energy mix from 75 per cent to 50 per cent by 2025.*"
> 
> Click here




Goodness Gracious

I forgot my pair of glasses. Apology for not being able to see the chart which predicted PEN to go up today at 6 cents.

No more post today from a great disbeliever of nuclear energy and PEN.

Any way let me go to Chemist to buy one monocol to read the chart carefully .


----------



## tech/a

All this backslapping from people who have sat by and watched profits fall from 16c to 3 cents
Chalea maybe a novice but your not trading like geniuses either.


----------



## ColB

tech/a said:


> All this backslapping from people who have sat by and watched profits fall from 16c to 3 cents
> Chalea maybe a novice but your not trading like geniuses either.




Tech, you make a valid point in what you say but Chalea has been seen to do nothing more than take great comfort in highlighting the poor performance of PEN since its highs of 15c or so.  A major reason for that as you know was the Fukushima disaster, and investor concerns of continued support of nuclear power by governments around the world .

Chalea has posted numerous anti nuclear articles and has made it quite clear he is no fan of nuclear power.  He has posted many charts highlighting technical analyses of where he believes the price of PEN is heading.  I have not been able to find any post where he predicts the price of PEN to head anywhere other than SOUTH so I tend to think, probably like many others here that Chalea is the pest of the PEN thread.

No problems with a bit of banter back and forth and a little balance to keep the pro PEN enthusiasts like Hangseng on their toes and it is quite entertaining and educational to hear both sides.

However, some like Chalea, even if only a novice open themselves up to ridicule on days like today with his recent posts.


----------



## tech/a

ColB said:


> Tech, you make a valid point in what you say but Chalea has been seen to do nothing more than take great comfort in highlighting the poor performance of PEN since its highs of 15c or so.  A major reason for that as you know was the Fukushima disaster, and investor concerns of continued support of nuclear power by governments around the world .
> 
> Chalea has posted numerous anti nuclear articles and has made it quite clear he is no fan of nuclear power.  He has posted many charts highlighting technical analyses of where he believes the price of PEN is heading.  I have not been able to find any post where he predicts the price of PEN to head anywhere other than SOUTH so I tend to think, probably like many others here that Chalea is the pest of the PEN thread.
> 
> No problems with a bit of banter back and forth and a little balance to keep the pro PEN enthusiasts like Hangseng on their toes and it is quite entertaining and educational to hear both sides.
> 
> However, some like Chalea, even if only a novice open themselves up to ridicule on days like today with his recent posts.




Don't get me wrong I haven't read chalea's posts he has been on ignore pretty well since he started posting here.
Guys like him give T/A a bad rap.
Anyway 10c looks good.--- that'll stir up the injuns


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Chalea novice





Ubershrewd said:


> Chalea will be back on the slightest down day, we probably won't hear from him today.





hangseng said:


> RSI rising strongly...I guess some simply never learn.




Goodness Gracious, the RSI broke it's uptrend & has now tested/confirmed it as resistance.

Also note today's exhaustion gap and the impending RSI bearish divergence.
Bearish engulfing candlestick tomorrow is highly anticipated to confirm the multitude of red flags on the PEN chart!





:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> The imminent mountain of excess uranium must surely have a negative impact on the price of uranium.
> 
> It will undoubtedly cause PEN's 3.0c gap to be filled! :bananasmi




"*Fukushima fallout 'to hurt prices for years'*

The warning that it could take until 2014 before uranium prices recover dashes hopes of investors who have in recent weeks bought in heavily to Australian and Canadian uranium producers and explorers in the expectation that uranium demand would rebound more quickly from Fukushima than first thought.

ERA told analysts at a briefing yesterday that the uranium market would remain subdued until excess supply, caused by Japan's nuclear shutdown and curtailments elsewhere, cleared the market.

It said market prices were expected to rise in the 2014-2020 period, driven by an expected shortfall in production from proposed new mine developments."

Click here


----------



## notting

ColB said:


> No problems with a bit of banter back and forth and a little balance to keep the pro PEN enthusiasts like Hangseng on their toes and it is quite entertaining and educational to hear both sides.




:bowdown:Exactly.

And when you spell like I do, your easily impressed!


----------



## ColB

notting said:


> :bowdown:Exactly.
> 
> And when you spell like I do, *your* easily impressed!




Notting!!!  It's you're not your!!


----------



## ColB

Chalea said:


> "*Fukushima fallout 'to hurt prices for years'*
> 
> The warning that it could take until 2014 before uranium prices recover dashes hopes of investors who have in recent weeks bought in heavily to Australian and Canadian uranium producers and explorers in the expectation that uranium demand would rebound more quickly from Fukushima than first thought.
> 
> ERA told analysts at a briefing yesterday that the uranium market would remain subdued until excess supply, caused by Japan's nuclear shutdown and curtailments elsewhere, cleared the market.
> 
> It said market prices were expected to rise in the 2014-2020 period, driven by an expected shortfall in production from proposed new mine developments."
> 
> Click here




Well that article certainly scared the PEN investors off today.  Only went up 17.65%.

Chalea, that long green candle thingy, that thing that finishes on a high, is that a bulllish macrami or something??


----------



## notting

ColB said:


> Notting!!!  It's you're not your!!




Oh Gosh. The apostrophe! :22_yikes:


----------



## spudman

"Also note today's exhaustion gap and the impending RSI bearish divergence.
Bearish engulfing candlestick tomorrow is highly anticipated to confirm the multitude of red flags on the PEN chart!"

And the 'red flags' can be found where ?? LOL


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Goodness Gracious, the RSI broke it's uptrend & has now tested/confirmed it as resistance.
> Also note today's exhaustion gap and the impending RSI bearish divergence.
> Bearish engulfing candlestick tomorrow is highly anticipated to confirm the multitude of red flags on the PEN chart!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 45949




Bearish RSI divergence confirmation today plus a Bearish Harami reversal candlestick pattern...:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

Technically a good day for PEN
Will mark up and post a chart tomorrow


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Technically a good day for PEN
> Will mark up and post a chart tomorrow




I now expect PEN to continue on its way.

There could be a day with a very high Parabolic rise.
if so I will be trailing a stop right up behind it.I would expect this to be supported with very very high volume. 8.5c is where I think it will run out of puff and correct for a while.
In the meantime if you have the opportunity to milk it----

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Bearish RSI divergence confirmation today plus a Bearish Harami reversal candlestick pattern...:bananasmi
> 
> View attachment 45966




Long term Coppock Indicator falls below zero...




:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Bearish RSI divergence confirmation today plus a Bearish Harami reversal candlestick pattern...:bananasmi
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 45966




Bearish Deliberation Candlestick Pattern leading up to historic support/now resistance level @ 6.0c






:bananasmi


----------



## Miner

Chalea said:


> Bearish Deliberation Candlestick Pattern leading up to historic support/now resistance level @ 6.0c
> 
> View attachment 45980
> 
> View attachment 45981
> 
> 
> :bananasmi




I would be very much interested to see how PEN reacts with the candle stick graph on Monday when market opens.

Good luck with your charting.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> In the meantime if you have the opportunity to milk it----




"Is It Ethical to Invest in Nuclear Power?

...The fact that a small minority of humans living today are essentially handing over a huge ecological threat to future generations is ethically reprehensible"

Link


----------



## beatle

tech/a said:


> I now expect PEN to continue on its way.
> 
> There could be a day with a very high Parabolic rise.
> if so I will be trailing a stop right up behind it.I would expect this to be supported with very very high volume. 8.5c is where I think it will run out of puff and correct for a while.
> In the meantime if you have the opportunity to milk it----
> 
> *CLICK TO EXPAND*
> 
> View attachment 45978




Tech/a, I note an old post of yours on the RED thread (#1458):
"Nothing to do with the two companies and everything to dowith the same "type" of fanatical following by those with a vested interest.
 In PEN'S case a few went from riches to rags kicking and screaming all the way.
 It was and still is un thinkable that their pet could possibly drop 400%
 Not only that but they rode it all the way to the bottom " averaging down" all the way!

The comparison is limited to the above without the 400 % crash but certainly with the same dissection of every announcement and in depth discussion/speculation.

But RED IS different isn it! "

It was at a time when it obviously suited you to rubbish RED, maybe you were trying to get into the stock (which is what you refer to "milking the opportunity" I guess, lol!).

Seems now you must have a position in PEN?

I don't plan to rubbish PEN but I do have a cynical view of the posts you make! Based on your own past comments it could go down to rags from here I guess.. But don't let that get in the way of a good story.

By the way, if you consider PEN and RED similar in terms of their possibility to blow up (your past sentiments, not mine), then I will tell you from a fundamental point of view they are at vastly different points in the development process. So I suggest you just look at the charts because if you knew PEN remains a substantially speculative explorer
you would run for the hills, lol!


----------



## tech/a

beatle said:


> Tech/a, I note an old post of yours on the RED thread (#1458):
> "Nothing to do with the two companies and everything to dowith the same "type" of fanatical following by those with a vested interest.
> In PEN'S case a few went from riches to rags kicking and screaming all the way.
> It was and still is un thinkable that their pet could possibly drop 400%
> Not only that but they rode it all the way to the bottom " averaging down" all the way!
> 
> The comparison is limited to the above without the 400 % crash but certainly with the same dissection of every announcement and in depth discussion/speculation
> 
> But RED IS different isn it! "
> 
> *It was at a time when it obviously suited you to rubbish RED, maybe you were trying to get into the stock (which is what you refer to "milking the opportunity" I guess, lol!).*




Damned your smart----- sprung!

The power of ASF and my own ability to single handedly
Bring RED and PEN down to a price worth buying and now
Single handedly getting them to rise.

How did you spot that I was sure I was subtle!




> Seems now you must have a position in PEN?




Brilliant



> I don't plan to rubbish PEN but I do have a cynical view of the posts you make! Based on your own past comments it could go down to rags from here I guess.. But don't let that get in the way of a good story.




Yes it could stay tuned.



> By the way, if you consider PEN and RED similar in terms of their possibility to blow up (your past sentiments, not mine), then I will tell you from a fundamental point of view they are at vastly different points in the development process. So I suggest you just look at the charts because if you knew PEN remains a substantially speculative explorer
> you would run for the hills, lol!




That I will when it stops making me money
As I do with all my holdings.
Fortunately I don't need to concern myself with announcements
Or speculation of " facts "
If analysis says buy I buy. Sell I sell.simple really.


----------



## Robbo

tech/a said:


> I now expect PEN to continue on its way.
> 
> There could be a day with a very high Parabolic rise.
> if so I will be trailing a stop right up behind it.I would expect this to be supported with very very high volume. 8.5c is where I think it will run out of puff and correct for a while.
> In the meantime if you have the opportunity to milk it----
> 
> *CLICK TO EXPAND*
> 
> View attachment 45978




I appreciate your posts tech/a, insightful, educational and getting to the point/keeping it simple. I've moved from a 'fundy' in 07/08 to trading with technical analysis thats since moved into Wyckoff/VSA methods and have found your posts immensly helpful in improving my trading. Thankyou
Its amazing how many people still just don't get it!


----------



## tech/a

Robbo said:


> I appreciate your posts tech/a, insightful, educational and getting to the point/keeping it simple. I've moved from a 'fundy' in 07/08 to trading with technical analysis thats since moved into Wyckoff/VSA methods and have found your posts immensly helpful in improving my trading. Thankyou
> Its amazing how many people still just don't get it!




Well all our friends here "get it"
In their OWN way.

" You can only know what you know "

In my world there is a great deal I don't " need " to know.
Which our friends here are sure I/ we have / need to know!

I just don't get it!


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> I just don't get it!




"The Fukushima pets are victims of last March's Japan earthquake and resulting tsunami and nuclear meltdown that do not get many headlines. Now these animals are facing freezing conditions, and rescuers are running out of time.

...He said, "The government keeps saying there are few pets left, but we see their footprints in the snow. They are fighting to stay alive." Right now at least 20 to 30 Fukushima pets die each day because they are so malnourished after all these months of fending for themselves, which is incredibly difficult to hear. There are at least 100 left that need to be rescued, so there are just days left to help these starving animals."

Link


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Or speculation of " facts "




"In most Southeast Asian countries where there is interest in nuclear power, politics are holding it back.

"Everything is ready here, except for a political decision," said Ferhat Aziz, a spokesman for the agency. "Too many people think it is too dangerous and too expensive so the key challenge is in people's minds."

...And in the Philippines, Fukushima gave pause to efforts to revive the country's white elephant, the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant, which was built in the early 1980s but never went into operation because *it sits on a tectonic fault and volcano*."

Link


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> If analysis says buy I buy. Sell I sell.simple really.




Being a humble novice, ignorant of the many nuances of your method tech/a,
Could you please highlight your reasoning for this 'Dead Cat Bounce' reaching 10 cents.

To the untrained eye your chart is identical to last July's when, your message was -

"If you have bought (Or bought more) at 6.5-7.3c as indicated in the technical signal at post#1544 then who cares just sit and forget"

*prior to a 70% crash...*

Respectfully
Chalea

:bananasmi


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> I now expect PEN to continue on its way.
> 
> There could be a day with a very high Parabolic rise.
> if so I will be trailing a stop right up behind it.I would expect this to be supported with very very high volume. 8.5c is where I think it will run out of puff and correct for a while.
> In the meantime if you have the opportunity to milk it----
> 
> *CLICK TO EXPAND*
> 
> View attachment 45978




Excellent analysis tech.

You really should write a book on trading/TA.

It would be a good read and educate investors, particularly beginners and those with a wide brim and small herd such as Chalea.

gg


----------



## Chalea

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Excellent analysis tech.
> 
> You really should write a book on trading/TA.
> 
> It would be a good read and educate investors, particularly beginners and those with a wide brim and small herd such as Chalea.
> 
> gg




I yearn to one day emulate your trading prowess Garpal Gumnut.

Please highlight the excellence in tech/a's analysis.

I see nothing but unsubstantiated wishful thinking.

But then again, I'm not currently holding...

Kind regards
Chalea


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> Please highlight the excellence in tech/a's analysis.
> 
> I see nothing but unsubstantiated wishful thinking.
> 
> Chalea




That's a laughable statement comming from you Chalea, when it's so obvious that all the calls that you have made on this PEN thread have been based on nothing more than pattern repetition, it's not as simple as that...

You say you're not holding, so why aren't you shorting it if you believe in your own  TA ?  

The difference between you and Tech-A is that he IS trading it, and reading between the lines - profitably, where as your just talking, and a lot of the time the talk is irrevalent to PEN.


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> To the untrained eye your chart is identical to last July's when,




Cause its in an uptrend now



> your message was -
> 
> "If you have bought (Or bought more) at 6.5-7.3c as indicated in the technical signal at post#1544 then who cares just sit and forget"
> 
> *prior to a 70% crash...*




I have no idea how you managed to extract that from a simple back pat. Here is the post by tech/a, note the short term nature of the call.



tech/a said:


> Double bottom
> Where I'd be buying and where I'd have a stop.
> Soaking up the Sun in Venice currently so will have to be a call for the record only.
> Sporting a mediterrainian tan I might add----RED.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 17/6
> As noted was a low risk buy.
> So even us techies would have made a quid--- short term.
> Personally I like the quick gains and avoid the massive drawdowns!
> 
> This is a high risk specie which can gleen profit fir the nimble
Click to expand...



17/6 orig call: 6.8c
24/6 back pat: 7.7c
1 wk later 7.5c
2 wks later 7.3c
3 wks later 7.3c
4 wks later 8.2c
5 wks later 7.2c

And after the break of 7c if you didnt get out... Good riddance.


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> Cause its in an uptrend now



As it was last July, when I joined you all...

Here's another from the time - "I expect another visit to the teens."
He still does...:shake:



> Good riddance.



I think I'll stay & add some balance...corn:


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> As it was last July, when I joined you all...




err no.

Thats chop over a few weeks. Possible beginnings of an uptrend HOWEVER it decided to crack 7c and die.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I would agree with tech/a.

A good uptrend on volume, the last bar an inside closing close to the high and far from the low on indifferent volume, with a wide ranging bar the day before finishing at the high on large volume.

It looks good for PEN holders, it should go gangbusters.

Then again if it doesn't, a stop as tech/a suggests will prevent destitution.

gg


----------



## Joe Blow

I have removed, and will continue to remove, posts in this thread that are off topic, of low content, or that are overly provocative or personal.

Now I will ask everyone again, please stick to discussing the topic of the thread rather than each other.


----------



## Chalea

Garpal Gumnut said:


> the last bar an inside closing close to the high and far from the low on indifferent volume




Precisely, a bearish Harami


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> Precisely, a bearish Harami




Form the website itself
_Pattern: reversal
Reliability: low _


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> Form the website itself
> _Pattern: reversal
> Reliability: low _




Confirmed by the RSI bearish divergence chart I posted recently...

Why don't you post a chart?


----------



## explod

Bit of rubbish around here.

I picked up on the breakout on the 17th for many reasons but first and foremost we have a good up trend confirmed and my trailing stop (currently at 5 cents) has not been hit since.   With some market enthusiasm obvious from the US Dow close Sat., we could be off to the races for a nice trade this week with .069 my target.

I'd be concerned at a close below .052

Entry was .045 on the 19th.

I got rid of all the fancy charts and indicators some years ago now.  You have to ride these things on the simple basics.

A great read is "Trend Following by Michael Covel".   Helps you to sleep at night when you know what you are doing.   But I do get it wrong many times and that's part of the game.


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> Confirmed by the RSI bearish divergence chart I posted recently...
> 
> Why don't you post a chart?




Indicators will always screw u if the stock trends


----------



## tech/a

Belting along nicely.
Looking for an inside day after this spike.


----------



## explod

tech/a said:


> Belting along nicely.
> Looking for an inside day after this spike.




Took my piece at .069 to end a good trade for me.

However a break above .07 should see .08 and that jumped could go to 9 or 10 on my view of the 12 monthly.

Just a rough 2 cents.


----------



## tech/a

Joined you at same.
Now have my alternate statagy in place.
Good day.


----------



## Miner

PEN holders

I am really frustrated with this stock.

There have been so much of positive posters by few of us stating why PEN is a worthless scrip, why charts show down trend etc etc.

I kept on putting  triggers of low price and high price in Commsec. 

I increasingly frustrated to loose my credit as the high price trigger is constantly breaking at .06, .065. .07 day by day . 

OMG where are the chartists to back up their calculation justifying why PEN fly low??? Shame on their absence when PEN goes above 6 cents, and today 7 cents.

More seriously, I think market is realising the true economic value of PEN and the market is rewarding the true believers of PEN.

Best wishes for the believers and condolences for the negative sentiment .


----------



## tech/a

Miner said:


> PEN holders
> 
> I am really frustrated with this stock.
> 
> There have been so much of positive posters by few of us stating why PEN is a worthless scrip, why charts show down trend etc etc.
> 
> I kept on putting  triggers of low price and high price in Commsec.
> 
> I increasingly frustrated to loose my credit as the high price trigger is constantly breaking at .06, .065. .07 day by day .
> 
> OMG where are the chartists to back up their calculation justifying why PEN fly low??? Shame on their absence when PEN goes above 6 cents, and today 7 cents.
> 
> More seriously, I think market is realising the true economic value of PEN and the market is rewarding the true believers of PEN.
> 
> Best wishes for the believers and condolences for the negative sentiment .




Can some one explain the gist of this post to me?
Don't get it?


----------



## alexc2005

tech/a said:


> Can some one explain the gist of this post to me?
> Don't get it?




Yeah let me know when you figure it out...


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Can some one explain the gist of this post to me?
> Don't get it?






alexc2005 said:


> Yeah let me know when you figure it out...




Miner's post makes perfect sense to me  ..... Should I be concerned


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Miner's post makes perfect sense to me  ..... Should I be concerned




I had a bit of a look and it appears to be a fundamentalists attempting to trade technically!

With the question being--- " Why is this so? "


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> I had a bit of a look and it appears to be a fundamentalists attempting to trade technically!
> 
> With the question being--- " Why is this so? "





Nah tech ....... Miner had his tongue planted firmly in his cheek for the first part of that post.  He is enjoying the rise of PEN and pointing out that some of the technical downramping by a certain anti nuclear poster in particular has shown to be pretty much off the mark.  

Be interesting to see what happens if the traders keep on with this and gap it over some of the old resistance areas ...... mid 7 cent region looks the next test ......


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Nah tech ....... Miner had his tongue planted firmly in his cheek for the first part of that post.  He is enjoying the rise of PEN and pointing out that some of the technical downramping by a certain anti nuclear poster in particular has shown to be pretty much off the mark.
> 
> Be interesting to see what happens if the traders keep on with this and gap it over some of the old resistance areas ...... mid 7 cent region looks the next test ......




Sorry the "novice" is on ignore. So unaware of banter.


----------



## tech/a

In again at 7.1c


----------



## jah008

tech/a said:


> In again at 7.1c




I bought in at 7.2c.


----------



## Joe Blow

tech/a said:


> In again at 7.1c






jah008 said:


> I bought in at 7.2c.




Gents, can we have a bit more detail here? What made you buy at those particular prices? Just saying you bought or you sold doesn't add much value to the thread. I'm sure I'm not the only one that would like to know *WHY*.


----------



## jah008

Joe Blow said:


> Gents, can we have a bit more detail here? What made you buy at those particular prices? Just saying you bought or you sold doesn't add much value to the thread. I'm sure I'm not the only one that would like to know *WHY*.





Sorry. I'm pretty new to this thread. Using (newly developed) technical analysis I saw resistance at 7.1c and decided that if it went to 7.2c with volume then I think it will continue upwards to another level and that I would buy in at 7.2c.


----------



## notting

95% up and hanging on just for the hell of it.
It gives.


----------



## Tysonboss1

Green light given for more nuclear plants.


----------



## tech/a

Sorry Joe

My "alternate plan" is that when I sell on a volume "reversal" bar as I did
I set a buy stop at the high just in case I have a premature---errr---ejection from the up move!!
Which I keep in place unless the stock shows signs of definate weakness which PEN hasnt.
7.1c was that buy stop and it got triggered

Hence Im in again.


----------



## Tristan576

tech/a said:


> Sorry Joe
> 
> My "alternate plan" is that when I sell on a volume "reversal" bar as I did
> I set a buy stop at the high just in case I have a premature---errr---ejection from the up move!!
> Which I keep in place unless the stock shows signs of definate weakness which PEN hasnt.
> 7.1c was that buy stop and it got triggered
> 
> Hence Im in again.




Have you got a target in mind?


----------



## theartglasshouse

Yes...$0.022 by Dec this year. My secret indicator and the random YT links advise me of this. If you buy now you can lose thousands later. Keep that in mind. 

-Tongue in cheek of course...maybe...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Chalea said:


> Confirmed by the RSI bearish divergence chart I posted recently...
> 
> Why don't you post a chart?




Chalea,

Would it be possible to have an update on PEN from your charts, if you could spare the time.

You must be very busy as I have not seen a post for some days, and you have been such a regular poster on the PEN thread.

Yours umbly,

gg


----------



## Boggo

Weekly chart is still looking good from a few weeks ago.
Likely that we will have the usual round figure resistance at 8c and then a run to around 8.3c where there is a bit more resistance, 8c should act as support for that test though.
Once it gets past that there is blue sky for a while.

Just my 

(I will leave the weekly volume commentary for the tech/a man)

(click to expand)


----------



## Miner

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Chalea,
> 
> Would it be possible to have an update on PEN from your charts, if you could spare the time.
> 
> You must be very busy as I have not seen a post for some days, and you have been such a regular poster on the PEN thread.
> 
> Yours umbly,
> 
> gg




Dear GG

Your selection of PEN  on stock competition could give a run this month as the topper.
However  probably Monday some negative ramping will resurface for PEN considering the Greece fall out has caused DOW to come down, major banks started to raise their rates even RBA did not (you would question why our banks in Australia can not make money with current variable rate for businesses and mortgages when banks in USA and Canada only charge between 2 to 3 % on such loans and still give 7 days service with a smile) raise the rate. 
ASX is most likely to tremble on Monday and few days thereafter and so will be PEN.

However sitting in right in the other side of globe, testing the pulse of the market, looking my differentiating allowance in Canada  to have come down by 25%  because the experts judged the US market price has advanced considerably to deprive me the differential, I am more than confident we will have a solid buying opportunity for PEN and many others.
When PEN will fall it will be much higher rate than BHPB and other core shares. But Hey, that also means market will recover (Greece can not die and can not come out of Euro Zone) and hence PEN and other micro chips.

Good luck folks (and GG yourself ) who are believing on PEN.
(Sorry can not post a chart as I am a strong believer / practitioner on Economic Strength and Engineering conditions to assess market than probablistic trending based on past performances )


----------



## Miner

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000072402
This is a link sent out by PEN Company Secretary and would be worth reviewing to see future of nuclear energy and PEN.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

Tristan576 said:


> Have you got a target in mind?




Stop 6.9c
Other than that will watch price action.


----------



## Dump it

Unfortunately your stop may get hit early, even during pre open if the market reacts terribly to the news out of the USA on Saturday. I hope not but the market hates uncertainties and the herd may get nervous, if you bought in above 7.0 cents then you may need to hold for a little while before you will see a profit however if you are long term then who cares you will be laughing all the way to the bank. Bring on production l say!


----------



## Chalea

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Would it be possible to have an update on PEN from your charts, if you could spare the time.




This recent move is merely a Dead Cat Bounce from a precipitous Pump and Dump Crash.

Check the chart, it's Deja-vu All Over Again from May '08!

The Weekly MACD has NOT confirmed a LT buy signal by crossing above it's centerline.
The 50 SMA has NOT Golden Crossed the 200 SMA.

Friday's high = significant Fibonacci resistance.

The 200 SMA = 5.6c and there's a GAP @ 5.2c if you're after a short term target/support.
5.0c also represents 50% of the recent run, so hardly an unrealistic target...

However, the elephant in the room is the GAP @ 3.0c

Also, the price of Uranium is flat-lining...

*2.5c must be retested and hold to provide a solid base for the next Pump and Dump!*

Deja-vu Weekly Chart -





Golden Cross MA/Fibonacci Retracement Resistance Chart -




:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

Dump it said:


> Unfortunately your stop may get hit early,




That's what it's for.
I have no concern for news or speculation factual or otherwise.
If momentum moves against my position I'll gladly be stopped.

End game is purely numbers
For me and trading
Reward exceeds Risk
Keep on the right side of that
Equation and trading is simple.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> This recent move is merely a Dead Cat Bounce from a precipitous Pump and Dump Crash.
> 
> Check the chart, it's Deja-vu All Over Again from May '08!
> 
> The Weekly MACD has NOT confirmed a LT buy signal by crossing above it's centerline.
> The 50 SMA has NOT Golden Crossed the 200 SMA.
> 
> Friday's high = significant Fibonacci resistance.
> 
> The 200 SMA = 5.6c and there's a GAP @ 5.2c if you're after a short term target/support.
> 5.0c also represents 50% of the recent run, so hardly an unrealistic target...
> 
> However, the elephant in the room is the GAP @ 3.0c
> 
> Also, the price of Uranium is flat-lining...
> 
> *2.5c must be retested and hold to provide a solid base for the next Pump and Dump!*
> 
> Deja-vu Weekly Chart -
> 
> View attachment 46035
> 
> 
> Golden Cross MA/Fibonacci Retracement Resistance Chart -
> 
> View attachment 46036
> 
> 
> :bananasmi




Short term Trend Line support currently @ 5.8c


----------



## Dump it

Perfectly put tech/a, it's not whether you have more winning trades than losing trades just the $$$ size of those trades. Small loses are out weighed by bigger profits.


----------



## Ubershrewd

tech/a said:


> That's what it's for.
> I have no concern for news or speculation factual or otherwise.
> If momentum moves against my position I'll gladly be stopped.
> 
> End game is purely numbers
> For me and trading
> Reward exceeds Risk
> Keep on the right side of that
> Equation and trading is simple.




Great stuff tech, textbook trading. All the best on Monday, although I'm thinking there will be a fallout due to some fundamentals.


----------



## tech/a

Ubershrewd said:


> Great stuff tech, textbook trading. All the best on Monday, although I'm thinking there will be a fallout due to some fundamentals.




If there is so be it.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> I'm thinking there will be a fallout due to some fundamentals.




By that do you mean the possible one year delay?

Environmental court case...


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> If there is so be it.




Have you noticed the GAP @ 3.0c?

What will you do if PEN opens below your stop?


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> By that do you mean the possible one year delay?




Yes, and we will see what the market thinks of all this kerfuffle tomorrow.


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> Have you noticed the GAP @ 3.0c?
> 
> What will you do if PEN opens below your stop?




Are you suggesting the SP will open at 3c? From memory there are 3 gaps on the way down. I resisted the urge to buy on Friday, one of the rare occasions that I get it right with PEN I suppose.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Yes, and we will see what the market thinks of all this kerfuffle tomorrow.




"kerfuffle"

Hmmmm, sounds like imminent...Fukushima anniversary is 4 weeks away!

:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Are you suggesting the SP will open at 3c? From memory there are 3 gaps on the way down. I resisted the urge to buy on Friday, one of the rare occasions that I get it right with PEN I suppose.




Come on, I 'may' have negative leanings re nuclear energy but I don't foresee Armageddon over this...

No, I don't think it'll open @ 3.0c
:bananasmi


----------



## skyQuake

Chalea said:


> By that do you mean the possible one year delay?
> 
> Environmental court case...




Link? Can't seem to find the news that you're talking about.


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> Link? Can't seem to find the news that you're talking about.




News?  
"Environmental court case..."

Link

Accession number is ML12041A295
February 10, 2012 - page 18/19

Background Link and Link

DYOR


----------



## Chasero

The thing with pump and dumps is you never know when they'll end.

Only when they start.

Hence why a lot of people 'trend trade' these, and judging by volumes doesn't look like it has ended yet.


----------



## Ubershrewd

Looks like HS was right, everything is ok today, boosted by management's assurance that all is still well. Gapped down but about to fill back.


----------



## tech/a

Stopped.


----------



## Chalea

Chasero said:


> The thing with pump and dumps is you never know when they'll end.
> Only when they start.Hence why a lot of people 'trend trade' these, and judging by volumes doesn't look like it has ended yet.



Thanks...

Today's Bearish Harami Cross, broken RSI trendline and largest red volume in at least 6 months indicates to me that the shark has been jumped...

"In an uptrend a long white day occurs. The next day's gap down comes as a surprise to bulls who thought they were sitting on a great position the previous day" 




:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Looks like HS was right, everything is ok today, boosted by management's assurance that all is still well.




Did they mention when the DFS was due?

:bananasmi


----------



## skyQuake

But this one was a bearish cross too?





imo you're relying wayyy too much on low prob 1 day signals. There are better ways to be bearish on a stock.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Today's Bearish Harami Cross, broken RSI trendline and largest red volume in at least 6 months indicates to me that the shark has been jumped...



"Definition of 'Harami Cross'

A trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a doji that is located within the top and bottom of the candlestick's body. This indicates that the previous trend is about to reverse.

A Harami cross can be either bullish or bearish, depending on the previous trend. The appearance of a Harami Cross, rather than a smaller body, increases the likelihood that the trend will reverse."

Link

"This pattern is a reversal signal only if it follows an up trend. It should be ignored if does not occur after an up trend.
This is a distinctive form of the bearish Harami. The second candlestick is a doji, *which gives it more importance. It is usually a major reversal signal*."

Link


----------



## Chalea

skyQuake said:


> But this one was a bearish cross too?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 46044





Candle's bigger this time, shadow's shorter and sell off volume's 4 times greater...
Flag continuation last time, reversal this time...
MACD signal line cross will confirm...


----------



## rnr

skyQuake said:
			
		

> imo you're relying wayyy too much on low prob 1 day signals. There are better ways to be bearish on a stock.




It doesn't matter to Chalea as she's not placing trades based on her analysis like others do!




			
				Chalea said:
			
		

> "This pattern is a reversal signal only if it follows an up trend. It should be ignored if does not occur after an up trend.
> This is a distinctive form of the bearish Harami. The second candlestick is a doji, which gives it more importance. It is usually a major reversal signal."




Now check out what they say about a Bearish Harami Cross on this well known pattern site.


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> Thanks...
> 
> Today's Bearish Harami Cross, broken RSI trendline and largest red volume in at least 6 months indicates to me that the shark has been jumped...
> 
> "In an uptrend a long white day occurs. The next day's gap down comes as a surprise to bulls who thought they were sitting on a great position the previous day"
> 
> View attachment 46043
> 
> 
> 
> :bananasmi





Gap down tomorrow Chalea? For once you have given a specific timeline, and I will hold you to that given your confidence. You might as well inform us whether you think that supposed gap will fill any time soon, if it does occur.


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Gap down tomorrow Chalea? For once you have given a specific timeline, and I will hold you to that given your confidence. You might as well inform us whether you think that supposed gap will fill any time soon, if it does occur.




Oh dear............the gap down was this morning...


----------



## Ubershrewd

Chalea said:


> Oh dear............the gap down was this morning...




Really Chalea? Would that sell-off have occurred without the bad news? Can you predict tomorrow's opening then? BEFORE it actually happens, instead of gloating afterward and picking out one of many readied-up explanations you have at your disposal?


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Really Chalea? Would that sell-off have occurred without the bad news? Can you predict tomorrow's opening then? BEFORE it actually happens, instead of gloating afterward and picking out one of many readied-up explanations you have at your disposal?



What bad news?
No gloat here ever, I'm the only one posting non fence-straddling charts here before the fact...:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

Inside day as expected.
Good day for PEN.
Play as all inside days.


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Good day for PEN.




Thought you sold???


----------



## Chalea

tech/a said:


> Play as all inside days.




"Definition of 'Inside Day'
A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.

Investopedia explains 'Inside Day'
An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. *Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse*."

Link

Sell???


----------



## notting

Took note of Techs stop, however hung on because it hadn't moved out of the inside (Techs prophetic topic for the weekend) and expecting a bit of a bounce in internationals tonight so thought it could have at least one more day in it to help me make a century!!:guitar:

Thanks for the update Tech it's appreciated.


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> Candle's bigger this time, shadow's shorter and sell off volume's 4 times greater...





sell off volume's 4 times greater...??  don't think so, have a look at todays 5 minute chart , nearly all the volume was on the open and as you can see was bought up from the off, never mind..!

Stop to 0.63 cents now, so unless it jumps locking in  100 %


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> sell off volume's 4 times greater...??  don't think so, have a look at todays 5 minute chart , nearly all the volume was on the open and as you can see was bought up from the off, never mind..!
> 
> Stop to 0.63 cents now, so unless it jumps locking in  100 %
> 
> View attachment 46048




Guess if you spin black enough you'll get white if you're looking through rose coloured glasses...

PEN closed down 5%, so it was sold off.
Volume was near 40 million, that's four times more than the previous bearish Harami Cross.




:bananasmi


----------



## Chalea

Boggo said:


> (I will leave the weekly volume commentary for the tech/a man)




Hmmmm, price increasing, positive volume decreasing while negative volume increasing...

Unsustainable




:bananasmi


----------



## namrog

Chalea said:


> Guess if you spin black enough you'll get white if you're looking through rose coloured glasses...
> 
> PEN closed down 5%, so it was sold off.
> Volume was near 40 million, that's four times more than the previous bearish Harami Cross.
> 
> View attachment 46049




But it wasn't selling volume, it was buying volume, when it's bought up from open that's the way I see it... !
Your bearish Harami didn't have much effect before, why do you think it'll be different this time, not that it matters to me, have stop in place so it can do as it likes, .

So are you shorting it yet Chalea ?

Remember----Patterns don't always repeat exactly..!


----------



## Ubershrewd

namrog said:


> sell off volume's 4 times greater...??  don't think so, have a look at todays 5 minute chart , nearly all the volume was on the open and as you can see was bought up from the off, never mind..!
> 
> Stop to 0.63 cents now, so unless it jumps locking in  100 %
> 
> View attachment 46048




Well done namrog, go get 'em!


----------



## Chalea

namrog said:


> But it wasn't selling volume,it was buying volume, when it's bought up from open that's the way I see it... !




Really?

So if it opens today @ 90c but closes @ 89c you'd regard the day as negative?

Unbelievable...


----------



## Chalea

Ubershrewd said:


> Well done namrog, go get 'em!




Uranium's doing well...




:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

Stopped out so buy stop for ME now 7.5c


----------



## howmanyru

tech/a said:


> Stopped out so buy stop for ME now 7.5c




Tech/a, would you mind to expand on your statement a little, not sure what you mean - thanks.


----------



## tech/a

howmanyru said:


> Tech/a, would you mind to expand on your statement a little, not sure what you mean - thanks.




Yesterday I had a sell in at 6.9c if hit.
It was
For the next few days I now have a buy just above the most recient high which will stay there until I see definative signs of a turn around or correction---if I do then I will remove the buy and look for a counter trend entry opportunity---or it will power ahead and take out my buy sitting there and Ill be fabulously--richer--.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> This recent move is merely a Dead Cat Bounce from a precipitous Pump and Dump Crash.
> 
> Check the chart, it's Deja-vu All Over Again from May '08!
> 
> The Weekly MACD has NOT confirmed a LT buy signal by crossing above it's centerline.
> The 50 SMA has NOT Golden Crossed the 200 SMA.
> 
> Friday's high = significant Fibonacci resistance.
> 
> The 200 SMA = 5.6c and there's a GAP @ 5.2c if you're after a short term target/support.
> 5.0c also represents 50% of the recent run, so hardly an unrealistic target...
> 
> However, the elephant in the room is the GAP @ 3.0c
> 
> Also, the price of Uranium is flat-lining...
> 
> *2.5c must be retested and hold to provide a solid base for the next Pump and Dump!*
> 
> Deja-vu Weekly Chart -
> 
> View attachment 46035
> 
> 
> Golden Cross MA/Fibonacci Retracement Resistance Chart -
> 
> View attachment 46036
> 
> 
> :bananasmi




Here's the hourly chart -

Bearish Head and Shoulders Reversal pattern.
6.6c is neckline support, currently forming the right shoulder.
Measured move target should 6.6c support fail = 

*6.6 - (7.5 - 6.6) = 5.7c* 

Bearish SP/MACD and SP/RSI divergences = falling momentum


----------



## tech/a

Pens performed exceptionally.
300% in a few months.
Few have performed as well


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Uranium's doing well...
> View attachment 46051
> 
> :bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi



"The mismatch between demand for spot uranium in Europe and supply in the US reached its ultimate conclusion last week when simply no one wanted to play. That mismatch, clearly explained in last week's report ("Uranium Mismatch Continues To Frustrate") has been driving down transaction volumes in the spot market even as medium and longer term demand begins to emerge from the dust of Fukushima. Last week, reports industry consultant TradeTech, there were simply no transactions reported..."

Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "*Fukushima fallout 'to hurt prices for years'*
> 
> The warning that it could take until 2014 before uranium prices recover dashes hopes of investors who have in recent weeks bought in heavily to Australian and Canadian uranium producers and explorers in the expectation that uranium demand would rebound more quickly from Fukushima than first thought.
> 
> ERA told analysts at a briefing yesterday that the uranium market would remain subdued until excess supply, caused by Japan's nuclear shutdown and curtailments elsewhere, cleared the market.
> Click here



Don't say you weren't warned...

"*Stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant at dire risk of massive new earthquake, scientists warn*

Scientists have issued a dire warning that the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant is at risk of a massive new earthquake.

Research using data from more than 6,000 recent tremors has found that last March's disaster has reactivated a seismic fault practically beneath the power station.

Now scientists are telling Japanese authorities to urgently shore up the damaged reactor in expectation of more massive 'quakes..."

Link


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> "*Stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant at dire risk of massive new earthquake, scientists warn*"
> Link




Understandable reaction...




:bananasmi


----------



## tech/a

Canceled Higher High Buy stop order.
Now looking for a counter trend trading opportunity.
Enjoying this movement.


----------



## Ubershrewd

tech/a said:


> Canceled Higher High Buy stop order.
> Now looking for a counter trend trading opportunity.
> Enjoying this movement.




Well done on the trade tech. We opened lower today, can't say that's too surprising. Sitting on the fence atm.


----------



## sealhead

Hi everyone,

It's my first time posting on this thread. Would anyone be so kind as to post a link or explain what the bad news was that came out on Saturday?


----------



## tech/a

sealhead said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> It's my first time posting on this thread. Would anyone be so kind as to post a link or explain what the bad news was that came out on Saturday?




Whitney Huston Died.


----------



## Chalea

sealhead said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> It's my first time posting on this thread. Would anyone be so kind as to post a link or explain what the bad news was that came out on Saturday?




Link

Summary...DYOR

APPENDIX A
ADMITTED CONTENTIONS
1. Environmental Contention 1: The application fails to adequately characterize baseline
(i.e., original or pre-mining) groundwater quality.
CONTENTION: The application fails to comply with 10 C.F.R.  § 51.45, 10 C.F.R.
Part 40, Appendix A, and NEPA because it lacks an adequate description of the
present baseline (i.e., original or premining) groundwater quality and fails to
demonstrate that groundwater samples were collected in a scientifically
defensible manner, using proper sampling methodologies. The ER’s departure
from NRC guidance serves as additional evidence of these regulatory violations.
NRC, NUREG-1569, Standard Review Plan for In Situ Leach Uranium Extraction
License Applications,  § § 2.7.1, 2.7.3, 2.7.4 (2003).

2. Environmental Contention 2: The application fails to analyze the environmental impacts
that will occur if SEI cannot restore groundwater to primary or secondary limits.
CONTENTION: The application fails to meet the requirements of 10 C.F.R.  § 51.45 and
NEPA because it fails to evaluate the virtual certainty that SEI will be unable to restore
groundwater to primary or secondary limits.

3. Environmental Contention 3: The application fails to include adequate hydrological
information to demonstrate SEI’s ability to contain groundwater fluid migration.
CONTENTION: The application fails to assess the likelihood and impacts of fluid
migration to the adjacent groundwater, as required by 10 C.F.R.  § 51.45 and NEPA, and
as discussed in NUREG-1569  § 2.7.

4. Environmental Contention 4/5A: The application fails to adequately assess cumulative
impacts of the proposed action and the planned Lance District expansion project.
CONTENTION: The application violates 10 C.F.R.  § 51.45, NEPA, and the
Council on Environmental Quality’s (CEQ) implementing regulations for NEPA
because it fails to consider adequately cumulative impacts, including impacts on
water quantity, that may result from SEI’s proposed ISL uranium mining
operations planned in the Lance District expansion project.


----------



## Chalea

Chalea said:


> Here's the hourly chart -
> Bearish Head and Shoulders Reversal pattern.
> 6.6c is neckline support, currently forming the right shoulder.
> Measured move target should 6.6c support fail =
> 
> *6.6 - (7.5 - 6.6) = 5.7c*
> 
> View attachment 46057




Support gone...




:bananasmi


----------



## notting

62% profit taken.  Not too bad!!
It's reacting to uncertainty, short term profit taking and mostly to PDNs rather dismal figures.
Not a lot to make it jump again and financing is still an issue as far as I can see.



tech/a said:


> Whitney Huston Died.



 So funny!


----------



## Chalea

Tysonboss1 said:


> Green light given for more nuclear plants.




"Feds Approve Unsafe New Nuclear Reactors Requiring Billions of Taxpayer Dollars...

...“The license may be granted, but these reactors are far from a done deal. As in the past, expect delays and cost overruns, and rest assured that we will challenge the validity of this license in court,” said Damon Moglen, director of Friends of the Earth’s climate and energy project.

In a shocking dissent by NRC Chairman Gregory B. Jazcko against the four other Commissioners who approved the decision, Jazcko said that the approved designs did not take the lessons of Fukushima into account. “I cannot support issuing this license as if Fukushima never happened,” Jazcko told his colleagues."

Link

:bananasmi


----------



## howmanyru

tech/a said:


> Canceled Higher High Buy stop order.
> Now looking for a counter trend trading opportunity.
> Enjoying this movement.




Thanks for your input tech, price action is king !!!   This stock is a (good) traders dream.


----------



## namrog

tech/a said:


> Whitney Huston Died.




He said " bad news " 

Anyhow, stopped out at 6.3 cents, all in all more than happy with the gain.

There are some possitives in the chart, so will be looking for another entry as I think there is a lot of interest in PEN now...


----------



## tech/a

Nice base falling volume.
Strong looking pause in up trend.


----------



## tech/a

Filled at 6.5c
Nice gap at open.
Stop at 6c 
My idea of a low risk trade.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Filled at 6.5c
> Nice gap at open.
> Stop at 6c
> My idea of a low risk trade.




Closed position.


----------



## notting

Might have a crack at .063 Monday if it hangs around!!
Sticking it's head above a little short term resistance with an oversold finish.
May get that century after all!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

notting said:


> Might have a crack at .063 Monday if it hangs around!!
> Sticking it's head above a little short term resistance with an oversold finish.
> May get that century after all!!




I concur, even if it doesn't, looking at volume, it is going to go.

tech/a wherefore art thou?

Sorry tech you are from Adelaide, that was Shakespeare.

However as the premier technician and trader on this forum your wise counsel would be appreciated.

gg


----------



## tech/a

Not much here GG
Patience or play?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> Not much here GG
> Patience or play?
> 
> View attachment 46295




Thanks tech,

I guess that 0.07 area is one of considerable resistance. I will rethink.

gg


----------



## notting

Support holding at 5.8c back in at 5.9 look to exit at top of the range or ride the break out. 
Quick exit if it breaks below 5.8  .1c risk unless gapped out.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Wonder what the fundies think when someone who is on the board of directors is talking down the sector,


> But mining stalwart Warwick Grigor is less optimistic, believing the memories of Fukushima are too fresh. ''I think this nuclear winter that we are putting up with at the moment is going to go on longer than the optimists are suggesting,'' he said.
> Grigor, who runs an investment advisory business and also sits on the board of uranium play Peninsula Energy, agrees that nuclear is the logical future power source for a world wanting to reduce its carbon emissions, but he said such decisions aren't always based on logic.
> ''We are dealing with a world where common sense doesn't rule, even though there is horrendous pollution occurring every day from coal-fired power stations, that is not enough to make some people overcome that psychological fear of nuclear power plants,'' he said.
> Grigor said there could be a sweet spot for companies already producing or close to producing uranium, and he said those with multiple mines were best placed. But he said these were exceptions, and there was no justification for being bullish about the sector as a whole.
> ''I would say 90 per cent of the uranium hopefuls out there are going to find that the road is just too hard for them,'' he said.





http://www.theage.com.au/business/u...n-fukushima-20120309-1uppn.html#ixzz1of8Axjsx


----------



## notting

If your a long termer Uranium is where Gold was when central banks were selling it and people were saying it's no longer a measure of a countries wealth and it was trading close 250 an ounce! I think it was in 1998 and oil was 28!

A genius who I know told me to buy oil and gold!  It seemed crazy.  I remember one of those graphic moments as you do, as a holder, when it was already so down - I think it was the Swiss who had a big chunk were saying they were going to start off loading it. So I did got chicken and got out!!

Even our central bank had sold alot of Ausi gold prior for 312 an ounce and I was thinking they were pretty smart to have done that when it was subsequently trading at 250 something. Miners couldn't afford to mine it!

I think Uranium is in that spot right* now!*  So if I really want to make good I should just stop trading buy PDN, keep some PEN maybe even some, dare I say the  word,  ERA and just go on holidays.  
Come back mega rich!!


----------



## hangseng

Trembling Hand said:


> Wonder what the fundies think when someone who is on the board of directors is talking down the sector,
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/business/u...n-fukushima-20120309-1uppn.html#ixzz1of8Axjsx





Sometimes the ignorant should read between the lines...

_
"*Grigor said there could be a sweet spot for companies already producing or close to producing uranium*, and he said those with multiple mines were best placed. But he said these were exceptions,"_

But you will eventually work it out...So much more happening but the "techies" will have to work that out for themselves.

Any of you genuises buy NWE?...no I thought not ROLOL


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Fukushima:

Cost of clean up = $14 billion++
The town itself and surrounding areas uninhabitable for a decade or longer. 
40% of in-ground uranium in in Australia (so I've heard).
Aussie uranium was powering the Fukushima plant when it melted down.
China is slowing.
Germany no longer interested in uranium power.  R:R ratio has been analyzed - it's too high on RISK.

PEN.  Got to think it's a poor outlook.


----------



## notting

Gringotts Bank said:


> China is slowing.




They are appearing to have a slow down but their spending/growth was substantially on government planned cities that are not being inhabited, so the growth was a little contrived to begin with!!
Their uranium usage, however, is not slowing at all.
In fact it's about to go through the roof and dwarf the cuts made in other countries as a result of caution after Fukishima.
Then their is India - another billion or so people moving up in the world on real markets and their all getting into a new fad called *air conditioning*, India in case you may not know is HOT!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

hangseng said:


> Sometimes the ignorant should read between the lines...
> 
> But you will eventually work it out...So much more happening but the "techies" will have to work that out for themselves.
> 
> Any of you genuises buy NWE?...no I thought not ROLOL




Bizarre reply.


----------



## notting

Lunch is for Pigs!
Went out to lunch and came back to find I'd been slaughtered!!
Teach me to come back for seconds.  
Stopped out and batting average reduced a little.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> Not much here GG
> Patience or play?
> 
> View attachment 46295




Thanks tech.

It's down to just over 5c and looks as if it is continuing down, maybe go sideways for a while.

gg


----------



## raysoh

just thought I share this with folks on this thread, have been reading but never posted -joined this forum awhile back.  Its been rather quiet here nowadays.  Denison Mines will consolidate assets in Wyoming with Energy Fuels.  If you still remember back then Denison took over Australian listed White Canyon Uranium.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob... RSS/Atom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2405117

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...er-target-after-us-asset-sale/article2405421/

Cheers.


----------



## Miner

Once this was one of the most talked threads.
But since for about 3 weeks no one seemed to have shown interest in the forum or stock market.

Looks like this news could be a disastrous blow for many uranium hopefuls including me 

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Japan-Shuts-Down-Last-Nuclear-Reactor-150287355.html

With record wall street depression on last Friday the ASx will follow it on Monday and just can not imagine what that leads to PEN stock.


----------



## Boggo

I am keeping an eye on PEN at the moment. Current market and Japan news may break the base of this but if it doesn't ????

(click to expand)


----------



## Miner

Boggo said:


> I am keeping an eye on PEN at the moment. Current market and Japan news may break the base of this but if it doesn't ????
> 
> (click to expand)




Boggo

Compared to market trend today, PEN reduced so far only less than 2% which is a good resistant. What your chart says ? Too early to say if it is going to make or break the resistance ?

All the best


----------



## hangseng

Miner said:


> Once this was one of the most talked threads.
> But since for about 3 weeks no one seemed to have shown interest in the forum or stock market.
> 
> Looks like this news could be a disastrous blow for many uranium hopefuls including me
> 
> http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Japan-Shuts-Down-Last-Nuclear-Reactor-150287355.html
> 
> With record wall street depression on last Friday the ASx will follow it on Monday and just can not imagine what that leads to PEN stock:





Hi Miner, long time no chat.... I have had a bit of a sabbatical from forums of late, so much negativity and I have been flat out at work. So much for a slow down lol. WA now has a massive labour shortage with mining projects coming on stream. One miner alone needing over 6000 new workers due to expansion. I may be in Indonesia but the spin off in engineering work coming our way is overwhelming, this week my company turning away work for the first time ever. I will be here for a while yet.

Back to PEN.....

Don't go slashing your wrists just yet. That last one was shut down for routine maintenance. The media conveniently left out that bit...again.

This also should have been all over the media but only made it in Japan as a brief mention. This wasn't done to shut down reactors...



> *New sea wall erected to guard Onagawa nuclear plant against tsunami*
> 
> SENDAI (Kyodo) -- A new sea wall has recently been erected at the Onagawa nuclear power plant in Miyagi Prefecture to guard the seaside complex against possible tsunami and was shown to local assembly members on Tuesday.
> The sea wall, built in the wake of the nuclear disaster in nearby Fukushima Prefecture triggered by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, is about 3 meters tall, effectively making it a 17-meter sea wall given that it is built on ground about 14 meters above sea level.
> The concrete structure, built at the Tohoku Electric Power Co. nuclear power complex in the town of Onagawa and the city of Ishinomaki, stretches about 600 meters along the Pacific coast. It was shown Tuesday to Ishinomaki assembly members in a guided tour.
> All operating commercial nuclear reactors in the country have gone offline amid public concern over the safety of nuclear reactors in the aftermath of the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
> May 09, 2012(Mainichi Japan)





Also have a good read on the Japan economy and the negative effect it would have should they keep plants shutdown (unlikely). They are in the crap basically and to replace over 30% of power supply to another source would take both a lot of time and money...they don't have either. Also have a read of this...Why doesn't the media focus on this at all and only keeps the same old media hype going?

Reality will finally hit home, and soon IMO.

*“Japan Continues to Need Nuclear Energy”**
*
http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/114...6580d53de-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email

In part...(go to link for full article)



> Japan will eventually need to restart the reactors because there is no alternative to replace base load power for industrial support. Facing the prospect of a hot, humid summer without air conditioning may be the catalyst that the country will need to expedite the incremental consent to restart individual nuclear power plants. Dr. Tokuhiro indicated a positive outlook for uranium investors, stating that if “you have a manufacturing economy that is based on a cheap and abundant energy and you trace that back with nuclear fuel or mined uranium prices it is really going to shift the balance of power towards China.”




As for PEN, it has copped a slating of late, but no orphan in that regard. The next 2 months will be a watershed IMO. Firstly if directors convert PENOA options, as I believe they will, this will have a confidence boosting effect for sentiment followers. If they don't I unfortunately see the opposite effect. I converted all of mine last week and they went through this week (see ann out this week). Cost me peanuts to get the PENOA thanks to both share issues and PEN being flogged a few times providing great buying on OA's, so it was an easy decision for me. If PEN holds the 4.0 level I will not sell any of the converted shares, but that is my sell signal otherwise. So far all ok.

Also we have 2 big milestones, very big being *Funding and Permit to Mine*.

If they keep to target then these should be announced by the end of June. We know from recent announcements PEN is in discussions over funding and has received a number of proposals that are most likely in the targeted area of 60/40 debt/equity. What we don't know is how advanced the discussions are. I know Gus has just returned from the US where he has been in talks over this, now we have to wait and see if that was just more talks or they have finalised something. I doubt if they have finalised anything yet as that would be a material aspect they must announce as soon as it is finalised.

But all in all, market noise and BOT arbitrage trading on PENOA/PEN aside, things are still progressing. I still hold market sentiment towards this sector has provided a once in a lifetime opportunity to contrarian investors. I believe this so much now I not only converted PENOA I followed the directors lead in Dec/Jan and bought another 1.5m at market recently courtesy of negative sentiment...Time will tell if I am right.

One thing I am sure of now is PEN will be a producer of uranium. If the study is correct, and I have no reason to believe it isn't, then they will pay off the capex within 18mths and produce free post tax cashflow of over $76m per/ann. Providing self funded development for Karoo. A falling AUD (likely) will help further as well as PEN will be paid in USD.

Hope this helps calm your nerves mate.

Look outside the noise and you will find plenty of truly knowledgeable and well informed opinion on Japan and the uranium market. The media is full of bull IMO and founded more on hype than reporting the full story. The mainstream media need hyped headlines to sell the crap they put out. How often do you see the evening news headlining positives? Normally they start off great with a welcoming smile then proceed to destroy your day leaving watchers depressed.

I haven't watched the evening news for years, nor do I plan to ever again. I can get weather, business and sport on my ipad and have no interest in any of the rest that depressing 30 mins of evening diatribe puts up.

ps. Sorry if anymore typos, doing this on my ipad at 4am in bed blurry eyed lol.


----------



## hangseng

My apologies people.

The information I received on Gus was wrong. He is "in" the US but not "back" from the US. Sorry for any confusion.


----------



## Chasero

hangseng said:


> My apologies people.
> 
> The information I received on Gus was wrong. He is "in" the US but not "back" from the US. Sorry for any confusion.




Just wondering HS, are you still in QPN?


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> My apologies people.
> 
> The information I received on Gus was wrong. He is "in" the US but not "back" from the US. Sorry for any confusion.




Hi HS
\with your sabatical leave from PEN i think we also slept. Yuu took only 4 hours sleep?I was surprised to read for the first time you thought to sell PEn if it goes below 4 cents.

You are the last of the Mohicans holding large parcels ( I am holding too but nowhere as bulky like yours).

Good think no matter what critics say, PEN Is comparatively holding better than many of the smart players in the market like AYN and others.

So let us keep our fingers crossed.

On less PEN side - if you are coming to Vancouver/Alaska after selling off your PEN for a holiday please do let me know.\


----------



## hangseng

Miner said:


> Hi HS
> \with your sabatical leave from PEN i think we also slept. Yuu took only 4 hours sleep?I was surprised to read for the first time you thought to sell PEn if it goes below 4 cents.
> 
> You are the last of the Mohicans holding large parcels ( I am holding too but nowhere as bulky like yours).
> 
> Good think no matter what critics say, PEN Is comparatively holding better than many of the smart players in the market like AYN and others.
> 
> So let us keep our fingers crossed.
> 
> On less PEN side - if you are coming to Vancouver/Alaska after selling off your PEN for a holiday please do let me know.\




LOL...not as large as some.

My mate is a T20 holder with 10m shares and he won't sell until Karoo is in production.  I also know of many others with far more than me, I am a mere blip compared to them.


Not sure about PEN, but I could with what I made from my recent successful trades a few times over .

With the latest on PEN there is a load of cods being bandied around that ignores a few simple legal facts.

The hearing that is in place by Viviano is *outside the permitting process and after the SML is granted *. It is PEN's right under the same legal system then to complete construction whilst that hearing goes on.

Others are saying this will delay the project, of which quite frankly is an outright lie.

PEN will be granted the Source Material License (SML) and soon receive the Permit to mine and proceed to construction.

This hearing will not stop any of this.

Facts of the day, the above summised and paraphrased direct from Stata Energy's expert legal advisers via PEN. Verifiable by anyone that cares to contact the company.

Have a great day Miner and live the day. Absolutely beautiful here in Indonesia today and I am soaking up the sun by the pool....reeeeeeeelaxed


----------



## skyQuake

Things don't look so good from the flow side, PENOAs are expiring soon, and people are converting the oppies to stock before they lapse. Puts a decent amount of pressure on the stock. Quite a few oppies out there to convert!


----------



## hangseng

skyQuake said:


> Things don't look so good from the flow side, PENOAs are expiring soon, and people are converting the oppies to stock before they lapse. Puts a decent amount of pressure on the stock. Quite a few oppies out there to convert!




Yes and most of them with directors and T20 holders. 

IMO these will all be converted sending a very strong and clear message to the market where this is heading. As if they haven't already made that clear with directors buying at market and appointment of the person to take LANCE into construction and production. Especially the directors and PALA, the latter with 150m to convert.

Adding another $12m cash.

I feel next two months will offer some surprises to all including me. Not the least of which being funding and early construction activities.


----------



## hangseng

Recently, I made a statement I regarded 4c as a sell signal for me and I would sell my recently converted PENOA. _I never said I would sell any of my other PEN holdings_. It has been brought to my attention that a poster from here has misquoted me on another forum.

I will make this as clear as I possibly can to clear the air....

*I have not sold one share, nor will I.* I attribute the low volume sell down this morning to a knee jerk reaction by small holders that took notice of the lies and ongoing innuendo being told on another forum.

As it turns out I have had a long converstation with someone that really does know what is going on with the recent hearing decision and clearly explained the 10CFR requirements.

What I stated previously is 100% correct, there can be no delay in the project due to granting a hearing on a minor dust issue. There is no water issue and has been proven so, as it was explained to me in the simplest possible terms "water does not flow uphill".

The worst case scenario from the hearing is an ammendment to the SEIS regarding use of the road in question that may or may not be a dust issue.

I restate what I previously posted as it is basically what I was told last night.



> _"The hearing that is in place by Viviano is outside the permitting process and after the SML is granted . It is PEN's right under the same legal system then to complete construction whilst that hearing goes on.
> 
> Others are saying this will delay the project, of which quite frankly is an outright lie.
> 
> PEN will be granted the Source Material License (SML) and soon receive the Permit to mine and proceed to construction.
> 
> This hearing will not stop any of this.
> 
> Facts of the day, the above summised and paraphrased direct from Stata Energy's expert legal advisers via PEN. Verifiable by anyone that cares to contact the company"_




In fact also verifiable if anyone cares to contact the Strata Energy Legal advisers and/or the NRC's representative managing the process for Lance.

I was also directed to here to enable further reading if I so desired.


*PART 2--RULES OF PRACTICE FOR DOMESTIC LICENSING PROCEEDINGS AND ISSUANCE OF ORDERS*
http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/cfr/part002/


As I type support coming in, and I am not surprised by this. The gap down based on misinformation and rumour providing another opportunity IMO. 

I now look forward to the following possible near term events of which IMO are a near certainty:


Conversion of all PALA and director PENOA options;
Funding for Lance development;
Permit to Mine
Early construction announcement including ordering of long lead items;

Have a great day!


----------



## Purd2

Thanks HS great posts.


----------



## hangseng

Purd2 said:


> Thanks HS great posts.





A shame the truth gets mixed up with fantasy Purd. I really feel for the poor souls that sold because of what has been stated over there.

It may have even gone to far now. I confirmed in a general discussion last night that PEN have instructed their lawyers to look into that forum and 3 posters and one moderator in particular. I hope they take them all to the cleaners.


----------



## reichman

I'm guessing I was the person to whom you refer Hangseng. However, you WERE NOT misquoted.

I didn't say you were selling any of your 'other' PEN holdings, whatever they may be. I said what you wrote here, and have now reitterated, that the SP coming down to 4c was a sell signal for the the considerable number of options you recently converted to shares. I also wrote you didn't think this would happen. Again, I only wrote what you said about the options you converted, so, I don't know how you were misquoted.

Given you have now confirmed that you regarded 4c as a sell signal, if you now wish to choose to retract that statement by now telling readers you haven't sold ONE SHARE and don't intend to, given the SP dropped below 4c today, it does appear as though have sent mixed messages.

Again, I did not misquote you. As a member of both sites, I simply gave a heads up to folk over there who have followed you for some time. 

I feel sorry for the poor souls who purchased at 15, 12, 10, 8, 7 and 6c over the past year. Hopefully, in time, they will get their money back. I think they probably will.


Regards
Reichman


----------



## hangseng

reichman said:


> _I'm guessing I was the person to whom you refer Hangseng. However, you WERE NOT misquoted.
> 
> I didn't say you were selling any of your 'other' PEN holdings, whatever they may be. I said what you wrote here, and have now reitterated, that the SP coming down to 4c was a sell signal for the the considerable number of options you recently converted to shares. I also wrote you didn't think this would happen. Again, I only wrote what you said about the options you converted, so, I don't know how you were misquoted.
> _





I was firstly informed via an email of what "a poster stated" about me, you weren't mentioned, and asking me if I had sold out. Then I checked for myself finally able to open said posts.

I know clearly what you stated and you didn't state anything about the options I converted. I did here, but your post gave the _impression_ (without saying as much) I had probably sold out and others ran with it. You could have quoted what I placed here but you didn't did you, instead paraphrasing your own interpretation. However I have been informed I can't copy what you posted as the whole thread was moderated.

Really don't a rats anyway and happy to be away from the bulldust being told over there. Thankfully the many that have contacted me over the weekend via email, mostly did exactly what I did and contacted PEN directly and have exactly what will occur. Not what some bush lawyer on that forum is spruiking.

He is statting that this could delay the project now I believe from what Yuro sent me, of which I now know is an outright lie, amongst the many others he has told so cleverly in the last year.  He certainly has been clever though and sucked many in.

So you enjoy yourself over there, I am glad to be away from it. As one rather intelligent wonderful person stated to me today, calling me from Sydney, the PEN thread there is not unlike bile.

As I said with what I know now I am very glad I decided to hold on. To you mixed messages, to me clear as a bell.


----------



## hangseng

reichman said:


> _I'm guessing I was the person to whom you refer Hangseng. However, you WERE NOT misquoted.
> 
> I didn't say you were selling any of your 'other' PEN holdings, whatever they may be. I said what you wrote here, and have now reitterated, that the SP coming down to 4c was a sell signal for the the considerable number of options you recently converted to shares. I also wrote you didn't think this would happen. Again, I only wrote what you said about the options you converted, so, I don't know how you were misquoted.
> _





I was firstly informed via an email of what "a poster stated" about me, you weren't mentioned, and asking me if I had sold out. Then I checked for myself finally able to open said posts.

I know clearly what you stated and you didn't state anything about the options I converted. I did here, but your post gave the _impression_ (without saying as much) I had probably sold out and others ran with it. You could have quoted what I placed here but you didn't did you, instead paraphrasing your own interpretation. However I have been informed I can't copy what you posted as the whole thread was moderated.

Really don't a rats anyway and happy to be away from the bulldust being told over there. Thankfully the many that have contacted me over the weekend via email, mostly did exactly what I did and contacted PEN directly and have exactly what will occur. Not what some bush lawyer on that forum is spruiking.

He is statting that this could delay the project now I believe from what Yuro sent me, of which I now know is an outright lie, amongst the many others he has told so cleverly in the last year.  He certainly has been clever though and sucked many in.

So you enjoy yourself over there, I am glad to be away from it. As one rather intelligent wonderful person stated to me today, calling me from Sydney, the PEN thread there is not unlike bile.

As I said with what I know now I am very glad I decided to hold on. To you mixed messages, to me clear as a bell.


----------



## reichman

I clearly stated about your 'options' that were recently converted Hangseng. 

I apologise to fellow readers of ASF as I readily admit to being absent for some time, but I will not have you spread misinformation about me. It is beneath such an intelligent person as yourself.

Very good to read your comments about re. happenings over the weekend. 

I'm glad you are glad you decided to continue to hold on. 

I was staggered when you posted here you were even considering the possibility of selling your converted options at 4c. Afterall, only a few days back, you did say in reference to said option conversion that you have 'never been more confident of success in a decision'.

You have plenty of skin in the game. Your biggest parcel bought at 10c at that point in time, you told ASF readers some time back. 

I know you don't care what I think, but I do hope you make money by having held all this time. 

But, if your T/A skills were a quarter as good as you continuously espouse, it's hard to comprehend why you've held all the way down from double figures. Surely your T/A would have been telling you to sell. Heck, if your T/A skills were like you continually tell us they are here on ASF with NWE, why not sell PEN at double figures and buy back in under 3c? Heck, under 5 or 6c even!

And if even 'considering' selling your converted options at 4c is in line with converting those options was your 'most confident of success decision', then I think I'll stick with mixed message, cause it ain't clear as a bell to me or anybody else who understands the english language. Indeed, it's the opposite of clarity.

Furthermore, for someone who is glad to be away from it, you even had the temerity to come back to the 'bile site' as a multinic! What a hypocritical stance.

If, or hopefully, WHEN PEN's SP returns to double figures, before you publicly wrap yourself and the company as I know you will, just remember that some folk might not have great memories...... but some folk do.


----------



## hangseng

reichman said:


> I clearly stated about your 'options' that were recently converted Hangseng.
> 
> I apologise to fellow readers of ASF as I readily admit to being absent for some time, but I will not have you spread misinformation about me. It is beneath such an intelligent person as yourself.
> 
> Very good to read your comments about re. happenings over the weekend.
> 
> I'm glad you are glad you decided to continue to hold on.
> 
> I was staggered when you posted here you were even considering the possibility of selling your converted options at 4c. Afterall, only a few days back, you did say in reference to said option conversion that you have 'never been more confident of success in a decision'.
> 
> You have plenty of skin in the game. Your biggest parcel bought at 10c at that point in time, you told ASF readers some time back.
> 
> I know you don't care what I think, but I do hope you make money by having held all this time.
> 
> But, if your T/A skills were a quarter as good as you continuously espouse, it's hard to comprehend why you've held all the way down from double figures. Surely your T/A would have been telling you to sell. Heck, if your T/A skills were like you continually tell us they are here on ASF with NWE, why not sell PEN at double figures and buy back in under 3c? Heck, under 5 or 6c even!
> 
> And if even 'considering' selling your converted options at 4c is in line with converting those options was your 'most confident of success decision', then I think I'll stick with mixed message, cause it ain't clear as a bell to me or anybody else who understands the english language. Indeed, it's the opposite of clarity.
> 
> Furthermore, for someone who is glad to be away from it, you even had the temerity to come back to the 'bile site' as a multinic! What a hypocritical stance.
> 
> If, or hopefully, WHEN PEN's SP returns to double figures, before you publicly wrap yourself and the company as I know you will, just remember that some folk might not have great memories...... but some folk do.




Firstly I received an email about the multinic and all was explained to the admin. It was not me reichman so pull your head in. 

I never have "espoused my T/A skills" as you wrongly state. I have in fact, seeing as you have such an outstanding memory,  many times stated it is IMO and I regard myself as an amateur in that regard. However what I do for my purposes, does and has served me just fine. You are way out of line.

As a supporter of the liar over there, it surprises me not that you can't admit to what you posted this morning. You didn't quote me at all as you like others now to believe.

You also have no idea at all what I do with PEN or any other stock apart from a few snippets, in fact you don't know me at all. One thing I do though is pay for my shares and back myself, try it some time. I am doing just fine from my own research and effort, effort I often share. 

I won't be responding to you again, you in that post display all that I now despise with that forum and in some people and I will place you on ignore here as I did over there. 

Goodbye.


----------



## reichman

Everyone knows you have never sold one single share in PEN because that's what you tell us! 

I have never come across anyone who can debate the undebatable like you can/do. It's a gift I hope I never acquire.

You're quick to tell everyone how good you are at buying and selling shares via T/A when it suits you (there are numerous instances for regular readers of multiple threads to view), and then you're a T/A novice when it suits. Good grief! 

You tell us you're considering selling all recently converted options if heads support doesn't hold at 4c (around 5 mill according to a previous post where you alluded to the recent conversion announcement in a conversation with Miner as being you), yet a few days earlier, your decision to convert came with the 'I've never been more confident about a decision' comment. So why were you even considering selling? I know you won't explain yourself, but folk here are entitled to be made aware that you change your tune to suit your hip pocket ahead of credible and authentic posting. Now, you've spoken to your men and you're back to the I haven't sold one share and I'm not going to confident mode. Good for you.

Said and meant, I have always been a wrap for your level of knowledge, but your ability to conveniently forget certain things you've said, is only rivalled by your enormous ego.

Put me on ignore by all means.


----------



## colossus

just joined and a little disappointed to see that although the forum has changed, everything else remains the same.
in any case, it looks like it could be another ugly day but there looks to be positive news on the way.
(col75)


----------



## hangseng

colossus said:


> just joined and a little disappointed to see that although the forum has changed, everything else remains the same.
> in any case, it looks like it could be another ugly day but there looks to be positive news on the way.
> (col75)




Welcome col.

Interesting to see that a certain poster has plenty to say about the hearing, but even though he finds insurmountable time to post multiple daily posts and reasearch the NRC processes. He states he *"hasn't the time to search for the link"* that would support his claim of a 12 month delay. You know why Yuro asked him that question col? Because he doesn't have a link, it is all bulldust. Yuro put a red herring to him and he was caught out.

So many have fallen for his game over there. What he put up against Yuro today was absolutely laughable.

4 contentions admitted, two proven by Strata as inadmissable and agreed with by the board and only two remaining contentious being dust and light. The only reason the other two are still in the process is that the board required Strata to show that all 4 were inadmissable, however according to the board they only proved two so all remain in the hearing. However what the genius neglects to mention is that the two successfully proven will not be assessed in the hearing, they are done and dusted.

As Yuro rightly stated water doesn't flow uphill and the board agreed. 

Also read the earlier posts of mine here. It is what Simon had placed up and I have confirmed is correct. The hearing cannot and will not delay anything as is being wrongly stated by one poster only.


----------



## colossus

cheers HS, i'm still trying to figure this forum out and look forward to reading your posts in due course.
our old friend elsewhere likes to get on the front foot when he can but i did notice that he backed off when challenged by yuro.  he's posted a bit more this morning but i haven't had the time to read it, nor do i really want to.
col.


----------



## hangseng

colossus said:


> cheers HS, i'm still trying to figure this forum out and look forward to reading your posts in due course.
> our old friend elsewhere likes to get on the front foot when he can but i did notice that he backed off when challenged by yuro.  he's posted a bit more this morning but i haven't had the time to read it, nor do i really want to.
> col.




Yuro and I with a little help from afar have him well and truly pegged. He had an opportunity to verify his claims this morning and blew it, nor was he ever going to as he can't.

Also notice he has never put up the link to the source of his "great knowledge". Yuro did so yesterday, the only difference is we have a little professional assistance diseminating it all. No surprise he wouldn't respond to Yuro's simple request.

"Hasn't the time" to post a link to the most important aspect of his long held claim and he can't post a simple link? A bit difficult when said link doesn't exist...


----------



## spudman

Good day HS and all.

Great to see you still around HS, I notice the latest post by 'you know who' on the other forum now stating that "2015 production start could become a best case outcome"

Best wishes, Spud


----------



## Purd2

What a joke Spud. Funny how some bloke reckons he knows more than the CEO and board members. AND wonders why they refer to him and his ilk as clowns. The mind boggles. PEN management have made it perfectly clear that production in 2013 is still aimed at and achievable.

I might add that PEN shareholders should be discussing what is "current", funding, building the CPU, Karoo etc. etc.
The incessant ranting about permitting is irrelevant. Management are not concerned, so neither am I. Cheers P


----------



## colossus

spud, i see that.  some bloke is trying to go toe to toe with him too, and good on him.


----------



## spudman

colossus said:


> spud, i see that.  some bloke is trying to go toe to toe with him too, and good on him.




I see that - I thought that was you with the COL in your nic 

Me I have given up on the PEN thread, just check it the odd day now. Great to see the usual locals in here, HS, Purd etc

Got heaps of work to do, over and out for now, Spud


----------



## tech/a

Still at it H/S.

Your holdings now around your average buy price from memory.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Still at it H/S.
> 
> Your holdings now around your average buy price from memory.




You have no idea what my situation is tech. So try something different for a change and provide constructive forum input, befitting something resembling intelligent conversation, if at all possible.

If you can't, then fine I will happily not respond to you any further.


----------



## tech/a

Strong reversal technically .

Quick buy for me today low risk in my view.


----------



## CanOz

Tech, whats your target?

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Tech, whats your target?
> 
> CanOz




.03 Stop
Target initial--congestion
5.3/5.4c.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> .03 Stop
> Target initial--congestion
> 5.3/5.4c.




Right O, fair enough...and how do you normally arrive at your target? Is that the next resistance level, where price bounced before?

Do you ever use measured move analysis?

CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

Would argue that it wont see 5c till at least after July. PENOAs keeping a lid on the stock


----------



## hangseng

Succinct announcement squashing the bulldust rumours and recent scaremongering surrounding permitting and licencing.
Executive Chairman (again) buying at market.

What next????

I expect something along these lines....short term


PALA converting all PENOA?
PEN Board of Directors converting all PENOA?
PEN senior management converting all PENOA?
Other Top 20 holders converting PENOA?
Funding announcement?
Permit to Mine?
Jorc for Karoo?
Additional Jorc conversion for Lance?
Aquisition?



*DANCE ME TO THE END OF LOVE....*
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ki9xcDs9jRk


----------



## tech/a

Stop reset at .034


----------



## Chasero

Can anyone kindly explain the difference between PEN and PENOA?

What are options? Can you buy/sell them like shares?

Forgive my ignorance..


----------



## tech/a

Chasero said:


> Can anyone kindly explain the difference between PEN and PENOA?
> 
> What are options? Can you buy/sell them like shares?
> 
> Forgive my ignorance..




Company issued options.
These expire soon I believe.
Yes you can trade them like a share.
They have a 5 c strike I think from what the others are saying.


----------



## newanimal

Chasero said:


> What are options? Can you buy/sell them like shares?




ASX homepage : education&resources: online learning: OPTIONS


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Company issued options.
> These expire soon I believe.
> Yes you can trade them like a share.
> They have a 5 c strike I think from what the others are saying.




Who has been saying a 5c strike?

Try PENOA 3c expiry June 30th 2012...


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> Who has been saying a 5c strike?
> 
> Try PENOA 3c expiry June 30th 2012...




HS

I think we all know who said PENOA strike price is 5 cents 

Ok - let me understand the logic :

PENOA closed at .011 cents on Friday night closing

PEN closed at .037 cents on Friday night closing.

If I am a PENOA buyer  then 3 cents strike price means I am acquiring PENOA  at at least .041 cents for purchase price. So any one buying PENOA from market would be effectively looser. The situation is different for those who got free attached options and agreed. That will be many of current holders and the directors. All make sense to me.

Normally after so many options being converted in June, financial year ending, there will be many more PEN available than today.

Of course I read your golden statement : if any one has missed that. JORC is coming. That will probably make all equations in the bin and PEN will shot up to have last laugh from PENOA holders and buyers


----------



## hangseng

Miner said:


> HS
> 
> I think we all know who said PENOA strike price is 5 cents
> 
> Ok - let me understand the logic :
> 
> PENOA closed at .011 cents on Friday night closing
> 
> PEN closed at .037 cents on Friday night closing.
> 
> If I am a PENOA buyer  then 3 cents strike price means I am acquiring PENOA  at at least .041 cents for purchase price. So any one buying PENOA from market would be effectively looser. The situation is different for those who got free attached options and agreed. That will be many of current holders and the directors. All make sense to me.
> 
> Normally after so many options being converted in June, financial year ending, there will be many more PEN available than today.
> 
> Of course I read your golden statement : if any one has missed that. JORC is coming. That will probably make all equations in the bin and PEN will shot up to have last laugh from PENOA holders and buyers




Yes conversion of PENOA was easy for me, as was selling PENOC near the highs then buying more PENOA when they hit the lows post Fukashima. So I had many rateher cheap PENOA's taking into account the PENOA issues.

I agree, I wouldn't be buying PENOA now as the risk is just too high. Although there has been arbitrage (BOT) trading on PEN and PENOA for quite a few months. In 1000 lots selling PEN and buying PENOA simultaneously and at times the other way around. Worth 1-2 pips in favour to the trader but what the actual reasoning is behind this is anyone's guess.

It will be interesting to see what happens when PALA and the directors/management convert. I say when as IMO they will do so.


----------



## Purd2

Totally agree HS, I have the envelope and enclosed cheque sitting in front of me at the moment. I will pop it in the post tomorow. 
I don't think some realize the strength of the relationship between GS and PALA.

Gus and PALA are very good friends from what I can glean from my observations, but not just friendly "supportive". It would stagger me if PALA did not convert all OAs.

As an aside I would say PEN/Gus Simpson are very..very ..underestimated.

As Gus says   ....  Watch this space!


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> You have no idea what my situation is tech. So try something different for a change and provide constructive forum input, befitting something resembling intelligent conversation, if at all possible.
> 
> If you can't, then fine I will happily not respond to you any further.




Yeh I do.
You made a big point of telling all and sundry your average buy price was 3.6c.
Guess what your at B/E after being 400% up. 

Oh and please---dont respond.


----------



## hangseng

Purd2 said:


> Totally agree HS, I have the envelope and enclosed cheque sitting in front of me at the moment. I will pop it in the post tomorow.
> I don't think some realize the strength of the relationship between GS and PALA.
> 
> Gus and PALA are very good friends from what I can glean from my observations, but not just friendly "supportive". It would stagger me if PALA did not convert all OAs.
> 
> As an aside I would say PEN/Gus Simpson are very..very ..underestimated.
> 
> As Gus says   ....  Watch this space!




We have certainly taken some flak over our decisions on PEN Purd but I am not fazed one bit by the detractors and one of the direct personal attacks just stepped over the line.

I would say the only regret I have is I could have bought more at market had I waited another 2 weeks. But still very comfortable with my decisions.


----------



## Joe Blow

Folks, this thread is getting too personal. Stick to discussing the stock and avoid referring to each other. There's no need and it almost always results in conflict, which only serves to derail the thread.

The topic of this thread is PEN, so let's get back on topic please!


----------



## tech/a

Sold PEN .039
Nothing happening here.


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> Sold PEN .039
> Nothing happening here.




Super Hot move tech/a

I brought 380 000 on my trading Account on 17/5/2012 at .036 due to volume moving in and bailed at .042 same day.

And why some might ask......Major negative market sentiment.....So fellas and babes.......In time........Im back in with trading and business accounts at about 2 cents.....Yep, Im a little surprised Chalea has not reappeared at present .....Maybe due to market bottom being somes months away yet??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Karlos68 said:


> Super Hot move tech/a
> 
> I brought 380 000 on my trading Account on 17/5/2012 at .036 due to volume moving in and bailed at .042 same day.




Amazing how many super trades are posted in hindsight........   

:bath:


----------



## Karlos68

Trembling Hand said:


> Amazing how many super trades are posted in hindsight........
> 
> :bath:



Mr Trembling Hand...........Im sure if someone who has the compacity can look back at the buys and sells.......Im just an average bloke.........Some day I may call myself GOD OF PEN..........If you can recount that day mate.....Some bloke put a sell of 4 000 000 shares on at .036.....Someone brought 500 000, then a 2 million buy.....I vigouriously put in my buy..........Height reached .042 during day.......I was watching action............Bit filthy for not selling at height............Then it rose back up.....Sweet....I bailed late in day...........

Mate, has new highs been made?   Nap....see ya at the lows


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Mr Trembling Hand...........Im sure if someone who has the compacity can look back at the buys and sells.......Im just an average bloke.........Some day I may call myself GOD OF PEN..........If you can recount that day mate.....Some bloke put a sell of 4 000 000 shares on at .036.....Someone brought 500 000, then a 2 million buy.....I vigouriously put in my buy..........Height reached .042 during day.......I was watching action............Bit filthy for not selling at height............Then it rose back up.....Sweet....I bailed late in day...........
> 
> Mate, has new highs been made?   Nap....see ya at the lows




Apologies fellas/ chicks........It may have been 390 000 shares.........If anyone is filthy.......just mis calculations while price was bouncing......my apologies


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Apologies fellas/ chicks........It may have been 390 000 shares.........If anyone is filthy.......just mis calculations while price was bouncing......my apologies




Sorry folks/chicks......Ive had many JBs tonight but am sure it was 380 000 shares


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Sorry folks/chicks......Ive had many JBs tonight but am sure it was 380 000 shares




Good evening folks
Please excuse my ramblings the other night....Alcohol is my weakness and makes an ass of myself




Lets concentrate on the short/medium term trend of PEN share price.
My thoughts are that we are currently (once again) consolidating before another trend down.

Some might say: You ass Karlos, are you downramping and on the Bourbon again?

Karlos says: Not downramping folks but yes, have had a few relaxing JBs tonight.

Few might say: Better spill as to why ya reckon its gonna go down Karlos 

Karlos says:Hey no probs folks, Im only to pleased to help. The Master Of Trading that I learnt my skills from once stated that if he could only choose one indicator then it would be the OBV.
My fellow Aussie Stock Forum readers......View the OBV.......Is it trending up or down??


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos, I would suggest you post some charts if you wish to comment on obv etc on PEN at ASF.

I believe you are a poster on another forum, whose members from memory appear to be sad holders of PEN, reclusive, incestuous and angry. Tech has been in and out of PEN with profit, I with less profit and now thankfully a non holder. 

Love of alcohol is no bar to posts, but a chart would be welcome.

Profit is the game, not the stock.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Morning Garpal
My computer skills are not to flash so I cant post charts. All I do is place a straight edge on the computer scene to visualise trendlines. 
Viewing a 5 yr price chart of PEN last year, I decided to view the OBV with it and noticed a correlation. About every 12-15 months the OBV surges, looks like the top of the ocean. PEN price also has a healthy rise. I reckoned last year we should see a rise early to mid this year. Yep...it happened...Also noted many penny stocks doubled/trebled and are trending downwards now also. Now based on my belief of 12-15 month spaces in the rises, I felt we will be drifting down for the majority of this year, hence my reason to sell half my holdings a little while back.


(Joe Blow, I understand we should not reference another forum but I feel the need to so I can explain a basis for a 2 cent price prediction)
Reading another forum, I have come across an extraordinary individual by the name of El Capo. He predicted a recent high of 7.5 cents and has access to a Top Secret Indicator:bananasmi......I love this guy........Unfortunately many mock him on that PEN thread
He tells it like it is, he strikes myself as an honest and helpful bloke. He has predicted a low of 1.7 to 1.8 cents. I have looked at a 10 yr chart and am sure I have worked out his reasoning for his belief. 
Look at a 10 yr chart, place a point where the yr 1999 would be and at about 1 cent. Run trend lines from this point to the present day......Interesting huh?
Notice the lows in 2003, 2005 and 2008/9....Higher lows.....and to the present day you could judge that in a few months time it could drop to 1.7 to 1.8 cents.
Squish this together with my thoughts on OBV and Im super confident of buying back at 2 cents


----------



## Stormtrooper

Karlos,

I would like to see your graph as I have called up the same info & no data exists prior to June 2004 on either my weekly or monthly charts, so drawing a line from the cent low in 1999 will be difficult.

I've put up the weekly chart going back to 2005, with your OBV at the bottom of the chart. My system has called a turning point & accumulation indicators with Stoch, CCI & MACD in oversold territory (MAcd & Stoch not yet turning up).

Whats you call on the OBV again?

I'm not so sure of the price back inthe 2c....Although all bets off for all my stocks if Greece starts us all down a slippery slope.

Thanks


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Morning Garpal
> My computer skills are not to flash so I cant post charts. All I do is place a straight edge on the computer scene to visualise trendlines.
> Viewing a 5 yr price chart of PEN last year, I decided to view the OBV with it and noticed a correlation. About every 12-15 months the OBV surges, looks like the top of the ocean. PEN price also has a healthy rise. I reckoned last year we should see a rise early to mid this year. Yep...it happened...Also noted many penny stocks doubled/trebled and are trending downwards now also. Now based on my belief of 12-15 month spaces in the rises, I felt we will be drifting down for the majority of this year, hence my reason to sell half my holdings a little while back.
> 
> 
> (Joe Blow, I understand we should not reference another forum but I feel the need to so I can explain a basis for a 2 cent price prediction)
> Reading another forum, I have come across an extraordinary individual by the name of El Capo. He predicted a recent high of 7.5 cents and has access to a Top Secret Indicator:bananasmi......I love this guy........Unfortunately many mock him on that PEN thread
> He tells it like it is, he strikes myself as an honest and helpful bloke. He has predicted a low of 1.7 to 1.8 cents. I have looked at a 10 yr chart and am sure I have worked out his reasoning for his belief.
> Look at a 10 yr chart, place a point where the yr 1999 would be and at about 1 cent. Run trend lines from this point to the present day......Interesting huh?
> Notice the lows in 2003, 2005 and 2008/9....Higher lows.....and to the present day you could judge that in a few months time it could drop to 1.7 to 1.8 cents.
> Squish this together with my thoughts on OBV and Im super confident of buying back at 2 cents




Sonny,

You are a fantasist.

Stick to the other forum full of pensioners and bizarre personalities with delusions of trading.

Put up a chart of PEN if you quote one.

Otherwise stop wasting the time of ASF members.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Stormtrooper said:


> Karlos,
> 
> I would like to see your graph as I have called up the same info & no data exists prior to June 2004 on either my weekly or monthly charts, so drawing a line from the cent low in 1999 will be difficult.
> 
> View attachment 47220




Good evening Stormtrooper, the classic quote is "A picture speaks a thousand words", as it so happens I am 43 years of age and have never been in a necessary position to learn computer skills. Thank you for taking an interest in my thoughts and observations. I shall try to explain my view on the long term share price again.

My accounts are with ASB Securities.....I glanced at the 10 year Share Price chart (2002 to 2012)  after reviewing comments by El Capo on HC. Placing a ruler on a computer screen  I noted bumps, humps and bottoms....I noted that trendlines were all upward (as he stated his view), were not parallel to each other and they converged at a point in 1999. Now 1999 is not on the chart but I am stating this point is "about" at that time and at "about" at 1 cent.


----------



## Karlos68

Good evening Garpal,

 Being as I was not born yesterday...Am I safe to assume your subtle comments toward myself are an incite to a flame/bait to generate an honest reply?
Dont waste your time as you only need ask for my thoughts

I will take some bait....You can read months of endless comments on a forum before absorbing knowledge which is beneficial to oneself

I shall tell of 2 comments from a member of ASF which were beneficial to myself  
1/ I had some banter with Chalea regarding my sell at 12.5 cent and how I brought back in at about 10 cent due to my observation of the Daily OBV. Chalea allowed myself to know what a dumbass I was as I should use a Weekly or Monthly. Damn, I then recalled my Master of Trading had also stated this some time back. Yes...weekly eliminates market noise.....reassessing the weekly I noted the OBV did not pop back into positive territory after Jap Earthquakes.
2/ Chalea stated that a parabolic rise returns to its originating point.....I did some research on the Parabolic Sar......Well, well, well....For the dude/chick by the name of Chalea who cops flak on ASF.......Chalea provided some incite for myself:beat:.....


Lets rock back to early December....PEN starts to rise.....Gains momentum then bolts.....Flippin heck....Its gone parabolic......2.5 cent to 7.5 cent

Anyone else have thoughts/projections on a bottom? 
PS Karlos will not judge an individual on wether a fancy chart is posted or relevant thoughts

Cheers Karlos


----------



## Karlos68

Stormtrooper.....Had to keep my previous post condensed as my wife wished myself to vacate the kids computer so they could do homework. Will answer your OBV/indicator questions with my thoughts when I have the opportunity. 
Its now bedtime in NZ. Sleep well


----------



## Karlos68

Stormtrooper-The individual I learnt most from is Phaedrus from Sharetrader in NZ. Very intelligent and always willing to assist. He made the complexities appear easy in his posts showing charts. He recommends using several indicators but if he could only use one it would be OBV.In his charts he would show lines on uptrends touching higher lows and in downtrends the lines touch the lower highs.

Im on Bigcharts.com, you type in  "auen" and click on "interactive charts" .
Viewing the 6 month SP of PEN, I add OBV and RSI......Just place straight edge above the downtrends of OBV and RSI......Still heading in one direction.
I dont place much emphasis on Stochs or MacD as they are lagging indicators but still useful.. 

 Your chart appears complex to myself.
 Rethinking....comments to myself to show my own charts would allow simple observations by many to provide accolades or point out errors. Give it time, I may get my butt into gear to learn some new computer skills....just dont hold ya breath. 

PS Back to  my 10 year ASB Sec chart....Viewing Share Price touching highest & lowest trendlines.....
High-Mid 2002
Low-Mid 2003
High-Early 2004
Low-Mid 2005
High-Early 2007
Low-Late 2008/Early 2009
High-Early 2011
Low-???????--- In the famous words of Bart Simpson:bart: "Are we there yet?......Are we there yet?......Are we there yet?....."


----------



## barney

Karlos68 said:


> Anyone else have thoughts/projections on a bottom?





After the PENOA's expire in June, the whole picture should get a lot clearer. If the SP is held down till then, and the majors still exercise their options, things could hot up very quickly, or maybe they will simply shake the tree hard and clean up the last of the retailers still in pain from the 6-7.5 cent area ...... Less dilution that way and they retain a higher percentage control of the Company  ...... purely speculation of course

The bar on the 17th May didn't look particularly accidental   ............


----------



## Karlos68

barney said:


> The bar on the 17th May didn't look particularly accidental   ............



 Yes barney, does look same as December with RSI indicator also being oversold

This is where the similarities end

Reason 1/
Internet forums-Provides real  Market Sentiment as we are able to read views/vibes from folks from all walks of life rather than the nonsense in the Media. Very good reason to never place individuals on Ignore. IMO not everyone is bearish yet

Reason 2/
OBV indicator-View a 1 year chart with OBV.....Note the strong break in downtrend in December, strong probability a new uptrend had begun.
As for the recent Up Candle with high volume..........It has made a slight ripple in the steady downtrend  which commenced back in February. I am on the understanding the OBV is the best leading indicator as to which direction a Share Price will head next hence I feel it is just a matter of time before another drop in PEN


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Good evening Stormtrooper, the classic quote is "A picture speaks a thousand words", as it so happens I am 43 years of age and have never been in a necessary position to learn computer skills. Thank you for taking an interest in my thoughts and observations. I shall try to explain my view on the long term share price again.
> 
> My accounts are with ASB Securities.....I glanced at the 10 year Share Price chart (2002 to 2012)  after reviewing comments by El Capo on HC. Placing a ruler on a computer screen  I noted bumps, humps and bottoms....I noted that trendlines were all upward (as he stated his view), were not parallel to each other and they converged at a point in 1999. Now 1999 is not on the chart but I am stating this point is "about" at that time and at "about" at 1 cent.






Karlos68 said:


> Stormtrooper-The individual I learnt most from is Phaedrus from Sharetrader in NZ. Very intelligent and always willing to assist. He made the complexities appear easy in his posts showing charts. He recommends using several indicators but if he could only use one it would be OBV.In his charts he would show lines on uptrends touching higher lows and in downtrends the lines touch the lower highs.
> 
> Im on Bigcharts.com, you type in  "auen" and click on "interactive charts" .
> Viewing the 6 month SP of PEN, I add OBV and RSI......Just place straight edge above the downtrends of OBV and RSI......Still heading in one direction.
> I dont place much emphasis on Stochs or MacD as they are lagging indicators but still useful..
> 
> Your chart appears complex to myself.
> Rethinking....comments to myself to show my own charts would allow simple observations by many to provide accolades or point out errors. Give it time, I may get my butt into gear to learn some new computer skills....just dont hold ya breath.
> 
> PS Back to  my 10 year ASB Sec chart....Viewing Share Price touching highest & lowest trendlines.....
> High-Mid 2002
> Low-Mid 2003
> High-Early 2004
> Low-Mid 2005
> High-Early 2007
> Low-Late 2008/Early 2009
> High-Early 2011
> Low-???????--- In the famous words of Bart Simpson:bart: "Are we there yet?......Are we there yet?......Are we there yet?....."






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sonny,
> 
> You are a fantasist.
> 
> Stick to the other forum full of pensioners and bizarre personalities with delusions of trading.
> 
> Put up a chart of PEN if you quote one.
> 
> Otherwise stop wasting the time of ASF members.
> 
> gg




I stand by my statement above.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Karlos68 said:


> I am on the understanding the OBV is the best leading indicator as to which direction a Share Price will head next hence I feel it is just a matter of time before another drop in PEN





Really el capo? So you would not have bought at any of the stages indicated below over the last 5 years as the OBV was sloping down short term....*right before a good rise on each occasion.*

Over the longer term it is clear the OBV is rising, make of it as you will. I will add PEN is now way oversold technically.

Same old same old, never a chart just text and never backing it up.

Japan starting up reactors again and the long term U price rising on the back of this long awaited positive news. As U stocks fell due to the shutdown of Japan and fall in U price so sure as eggs will they rise again.

Possibly on the verge of one of the most positive indicators for PEN, conversion of PALA and director PENOA's. IMO they will but I guess we just have to wait and see what transpires over the next couple of weeks.


----------



## hangseng

Well we had a year of negatives regarding this and as predicted the tide is turning.

In part, full article go to the link.



> *Japan Reactor Restart Countdown: Approaching Zero?*
> 
> How long will Japan remain nukeless? It’s looking increasingly likely that the atomic juice will start flowing again in a few weeks.
> 
> After an uncertain couple of weeks, more and more signs are now suggesting that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will give a formal order to restart two nuclear reactors at the Oi plant in western Japan next week. It would then take two or three weeks to get each one up and running.
> 
> A key turning point came Thursday morning, when Toru Hashimoto ”” mayor of Osaka and Japan’s most popular politician ”” effectively backed down from his previous position of opposing the Oi restarts, and gave his “approval” to bringing the reactors back on line ”” albeit, he said, just “temporarily.”
> 
> JRT has been predicting this outcome, though we thought it would take a bit longer. One important shift appears to have come on Wednesday, at a meeting of leaders from western Japan, at which nobody raised fiery objections to Oi restarts. Prime Minister Noda Wednesday night said he read that result as getting “a certain amount of support” for his plan to put the reactors back online in time for the summer power crunch.
> 
> http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/05/31/japan-reactor-restart-countdown-approaching-zero/


----------



## Karlos68

Garpul Gumnut and hangseng..........I have read your derogatory comments/accusations toward myself.......As I am working towards replying in a mature adult like response, I shall provide a mature response in time.....I would reply tonight but it is Friday night, I have had a few JBs and I do not wish to make an accusation which may prove to be misleading/influential to many holders of PEN stock. Some day I hope we can all be as one. God bless your souls and I shall provide my thoughts when time allows.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Karlos68 said:


> .....I would reply tonight but it is *Friday *night, I have had a few JBs




Oh dear mate. I would get rid of that fridge full of that rubbish :alcohol: 

Its doing you about as much good as the OBV......


----------



## barney

hangseng said:


> Possibly on the verge of one of the most positive indicators for PEN, conversion of PALA and director PENOA's. IMO they will but I guess we just have to wait and see what transpires over the next couple of weeks.




Right on queue again HS ....... Directors converting, and PALA underwriting whatever shortfall they can get their hands on ....... positive action. 





Trembling Hand said:


> Its doing you about as much good as the OBV......




Lol ......


----------



## hangseng

> =barney;708339]Right on queue again HS ....... Directors converting, and PALA underwriting whatever shortfall they can get their hands on ....... positive action.





I was always of the opinion PALA and the directors would convert their PENOA. What has surprised me and I am sure others is PALA underwriting the balance that others don't take up. Yes most definitely a positive signal.

Along with directors buying at market since last december it is clear they are very confident as to where this is heading even if some retail shareholders can't for whatever reason. Can't blame some being impatient and moving on but hey that is the market and will always occur. I remain steadfast in my (now seemingly minority) view that this will prove to be an outstanding investment.

Nobody can argue it has been a traders play thing for a very long time and subject to much volatilty and ridicule. But todays announcement IMO once again displays my contrarian view to stick with this will win out in the end.

Fastracking Lance and early order of long lead items. IMO also they will carry out a lot of offsite modularisation to expedite onsite construction activity. Miner (and any other engineer involved in projects) if you are reading this I am sure you know what I mean.

Next off the rank Permit to Mine of which is clearly very near now.

Smiling today...


----------



## Miner

hangseng said:


> I was always of the opinion PALA and the directors would convert their PENOA. What has surprised me and I am sure others is PALA underwriting the balance that others don't take up. Yes most definitely a positive signal.
> 
> Along with directors buying at market since last december it is clear they are very confident as to where this is heading even if some retail shareholders can't for whatever reason. Can't blame some being impatient and moving on but hey that is the market and will always occur. I remain steadfast in my (now seemingly minority) view that this will prove to be an outstanding investment.
> 
> Nobody can argue it has been a traders play thing for a very long time and subject to much volatilty and ridicule. But todays announcement IMO once again displays my contrarian view to stick with this will win out in the end.
> 
> Fastracking Lance and early order of long lead items. IMO also they will carry out a lot of offsite modularisation to expedite onsite construction activity. Miner (and any other engineer involved in projects) if you are reading this I am sure you know what I mean.
> 
> Next off the rank Permit to Mine of which is clearly very near now.
> 
> Smiling today...:





Hi HS
Yes, I do follow PEN threads just not in ASX but also regular emails come from Tania of PEN.
I have partially unloaded my PEN to make some profit (to be wasted on AYN purchase at the double of current price ) but I share your views. It is not my wishful thought or betting, but with constant progress with project progress, I am just waiting for 2013 to see some thing to pay back heavily through PEN.

Gestation periods are always painful so PEN is no different.
Being a typical  miner with a shovel in head (and no brainer)  I am less stressed with my lack of knowledge to read charts and graphs posted by Technical Wizards on PEN


----------



## Stormtrooper

Update on the top 20 holder. A bit of musical chairs but also it seems we have a new player.

Welcome Neoman Pty Ltd with 7,676,365..

Does anybody on the thread have access to CRAA enquiry so that we can see who the directors of this company are (as I am too tight to stop the search fee 

Did a quick side by side comparison for April & May top 20 holders. Hopefully didn't make an error transposing


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Stormtrooper said:


> Update on the top 20 holder. A bit of musical chairs but also it seems we have a new player.
> 
> Welcome Neoman Pty Ltd with 7,676,365..
> 
> Does anybody on the thread have access to CRAA enquiry so that we can see who the directors of this company are (as I am too tight to stop the search fee
> 
> Did a quick side by side comparison for April & May top 20 holders. Hopefully didn't make an error transposing
> 
> View attachment 47278




I have a bespoke pair of pyjamas which I had measured and made by Neoman Pty Ltd. while visiting some colourful racing identities in the Hunter Valley last month.

And a fine set of PJ's they are.

So for PEN investors, relax.

Your money will sleep well.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Let's see what happens when the inevitable awakening comes, and how many get caught napping 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/391711-why-uranium-could-go-to-200-and-beyond

http://seekingalpha.com/article/618...-why-uranium-prices-are-headed-higher-quickly


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Unfortunately I cannot be as confident about PEN as hangseng.

It is a doggie stock on the way down.

A chart.






Volume and price have decreased since February.

It looks not good.

It may recover in the short term, but unless the uranium price goes ballistic it will remain a stock stuck in the dreams of it's holders.

It is a good stock for short term trading as tech/a has indicated and proven.

gg


----------



## Stormtrooper

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Unfortunately I cannot be as confident about PEN as hangseng.
> 
> It is a doggie stock on the way down.
> 
> A chart.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Volume and price have decreased since February.
> 
> It looks not good.
> 
> It may recover in the short term, but unless the uranium price goes ballistic it will remain a stock stuck in the dreams of it's holders.
> 
> It is a good stock for short term trading as tech/a has indicated and proven.
> 
> gg





It's hard to agree with alot of your points above. re it's a doggy stock. I think you'll find most stocks are 'doggy' stocks based on current market sentiment. Even the good ol blue chip don't look so solid any more. 

Falling on low volume is GOOD not bad. There is no rush for the door. People are holding tight. There will allways be sellers for what ever reason, just as inthe current housing market there are still sellers..because they have to, personal needs etc.

Market turmoil, high market volitility & in Pens' case oa expiry , EOFY in Aust, & some extended time lines are all putting pressure onthe share price & even with these issue the volume is light.

However take a step back & look at Pen in the light of day with no debt, OA's now underwritten, improving market  U sentiment, cash in Bank (soon to be an extra $11m) & expectations for funding/ permits, Karoo all expected inthe upcoming 6 months, one would think that we are nearing  aturning point & this is supported by the fact the options are now underwritten 

Todays underwriting of the oa's has put a line in the sand so to speak. The underwriters are geting the options for nix & fully paids are costing them 3 cents. Whilst they are paid (handsomely) for their services, one would think that due sufficient due diligence has been done by the underwriters (have a look at who they are & relationship to Pen) & one can see they would be in a position to know a tad more than the average punter. Will they hold for a sort term, medium term or long term?? Who knows, but what ever time line they are working on, you can bet they are not planning to short the stock, they are in at 3c & going long.

Another $11m (ish) into the coffers & did I say no debt. A lot of companies would be like to be in that position.

Yes, we are still going to be subject to what ever systemic failure or otherwise occurs in Europe, however I'll call 3 as the bottom.....unless Greece & Spain fail as the underwriting clause . But the underwriters are happy with the risk at this level then so am I. 

Here's a chart I did up a while ago showing a correlation between Pens' share price at or around the end of financial year, (it is 2 screen shot pasted together asbest I could henc ewhy the lines are not perfectly alligned). You can see Pen in most cases (3 out of the last 4 years) it drops during June only to come back strong. This year we have pending announcements in the new financial year, which will hopefully springboard up to greater heights.

I can't see why this year would be any different.


----------



## Miner

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/japan-pm-orders-nuclear-restart-amid-protests/4074818

as published by ABC website - for the cynical people.
God bless Japan and its PM to bless PEN and its holders


----------



## hangseng

Miner said:


> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/japan-pm-orders-nuclear-restart-amid-protests/4074818
> 
> as published by ABC website - for the cynical people.
> God bless Japan and its PM to bless PEN and its holders





It was always going to happen Miner, I have held that view ever since they began shutting them down, It was illogocal, ill conceived and a populist knee jerk reaction. It gave no thought to the energy needs of the country and the plain and simple fact they could not afford to keep them shutdown as the country is not in any financial postion to create an alternative source.

As I keep stating, the supply/demand imbalance will begin to kick in eventually and the naysayers will become the inevitable herd chasing uranium stocks once again. PEN will be perfectly positioned when it occurs, as will I.

Only a matter of time.


_"Construction projects already underway should see China bring online some 27 new reactors by the end of 2015 in addition to the 15 units currently in operation."_

*Latest Chinese nuclear milestone*

www.world-nuclear-news.org
13 June 2012

_"Yangjiang 3 is the latest Chinese nuclear power reactor to see the emplacement of its containment dome.

China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation (CGNPC) reported the major lift, which took took only 76 minutes to carry out, on 9 June. The company is leading the construction of the Yangjiang plant, which is planned to eventually feature six reactors using the CPR-1000 technology. It will be operated by the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Operations and Management Company - a joint venture with Hong Kong's China Light and Power. The company already manages the Daya Bay, Ling Ao and Ling Ao Phase II nuclear power plants

Construction at Yangjiang began with unit 1 in December 2008. Work at unit 2 was started in August 2009 and at unit 3 in November 2010. Construction of unit 4 was meant to have started in early 2011, but this was suspended pending the results of a post-Fukushima analysis by Chinese safety authorities. Two further units are planned for Yangjiang but their schedules have also been subject to review.

Units 1, 2 and 3 are slated to begin commercial operation in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Construction projects already underway should see China bring online some 27 new reactors by the end of 2015 - in addition to the 15 units currently in operation."

Researched and written
by World Nuclear News_



Ever notice all the media hyped bad news makes it into the press and tele almost daily post Fukushima? However the above major positive for nuclear energy is noticeably omitted/overlooked by the very same mainstream press that spurred on the negative emotion driven hype.

This thread will have a noticably different theme when things change regarding uranium and PEN in particular.


----------



## Scuba

Hi Hangseng and others,



> Ever notice all the media hyped bad news makes it into the press and tele almost daily post Fukushima? However the above major positive for nuclear energy is noticeably omitted/overlooked by the very same mainstream press that spurred on the negative emotion driven hype.



I disagree with you here, and feel that Fukushima is under-reported in mainstream media. The quotation below from Japan's former Ambassador to Switzerland is a case in point. However, I'm not here to argue, just state a few personal points...

Pulled out of these stocks completely on ethical grounds, and given that Fukushima's entire spent fuel pool is within a hundred or so metres of reactor 4 building...

ENE news link to quoted.



> The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant Number 4 reactor presents a security problem for the entire world, Mitsuhei Murata, Japan’s former ambassador to Switzerland said.




_Shame there wasn't a nuclear cleanup stock, that's what I'd be investing in..._
Regards,
Scuba


----------



## burglar

Miner said:


> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/japan-pm-orders-nuclear-restart-amid-protests/4074818
> 
> as published by ABC website - for the cynical people.
> God bless Japan and its PM to bless PEN and its holders




Contained within that very same report - 

"On Friday, Japan's Nobel literature prize laureate Kenzaburo Oe visited the prime minister's office and handed the signatures of 6.5 million opposed to the continued use of nuclear reactors."


----------



## hangseng

burglar said:


> Contained within that very same report -
> 
> "On Friday, Japan's Nobel literature prize laureate Kenzaburo Oe visited the prime minister's office and handed the signatures of 6.5 million opposed to the continued use of nuclear reactors."






burglar said:


> Contained within that very same report -
> 
> "On Friday, Japan's Nobel literature prize laureate Kenzaburo Oe visited the prime minister's office and handed the signatures of 6.5 million opposed to the continued use of nuclear reactors."





Also didn't state where the signatories were located, were they all Japanese? However let's assume only all Japanese residing people. With a 2010 population of ~127,451,000 that makes ~4.7% of the population, hardly compelling numbers in a democratic system.

Love to see a poll done if they don't restart all the reactors, power prices rise and wide raging blackouts occur. Also the much publicised negative effect on the already sad economy of Japan.

Scuba respect your viewpoint, but we will have to agree to disagree regarding the media. Post Fukushima the mainstream media worldwide had a field day, many of the headlines posted here and elsewhere. Always mentioning the many lives lost in the same sentence as the plant failure, of which the latter had nothing to do with aand hardly a mention of the earthquake and resultant Tsunami. A question for you on your stance if I may. Would you/do you have the same view on coal mining? An industry well noted for the ongoing multiple fatalities, serious illnesses and attributed in no small way to climate change (if one is to believe this aspect). Far in excess of any industry let alone nuclear energy, but never receiving the same attention as the nuclear industry.

A few views:

http://suzukielders.wordpress.com/2011/08/22/the-pros-and-cons-of-nuclear-power-versus-coal/
"The pros and cons of nuclear power versus coal"


http://www.disinfo.com/2011/04/nuclear-accidents-and-all-coal-is-by-far-the-deadliest-energy-source/
"Nuclear Accidents and All, Coal Is By Far the Deadliest Energy Source"


http://www.the9billion.com/2011/03/24/death-rate-from-nuclear-power-vs-coal/
"Nuclear Accidents and All, Coal Is By Far the Deadliest Energy Source"

"...for each person killed by nuclear power generation, 4,000 die from coal. This is adjusted for how much power is produced by each method of power generation."


So that leaves us with wind and solar, if so great why haven't they been pursued with the passsion and vigour of the anti-nuclear lobby (that conveniently side steps coal fired power in the same argument)?

Thankfully PEN is about to operate in a country that is going forward with nuclear energy, as many countries are that will place an inevitable pressure on supply/demand.

*SUPPLY AND DEMAMD with a forecast U price of $90lb in 2013.*

http://www.macquarieprivatewealth.c...t/noel/documents/matt-noel-uranium-report.pdf
*"The time is now 
The time to buy uranium stocks is now before
the herd catches on to this prime opportunity."*


Time will tell if the naysayers or uranium bulls were right.


----------



## Scuba

Absolutely HS, the gentlemans way...
Not a big fan of coal and refuse to work in the industry but realise it's uses particularly coking coal. (Another argument however and enough said.)

My issue is with the instability of Fukushima R4 building and the spent fuel pool. If/when the structure fails (and it's rated a zero currently in terms of it's capacity to withstand another earthquake.), the spent fuel pool will drain removing the zirconium sheilding and fuel rods from the coolant and thus creating another meltdown directly exposed to atmosphere. Already, Fukushima is considered many times worse than Chenobyl/Pripyat in terms of the long term Cesium particle release/ water/ food contaminations measured to date.
Essentially, our real issue lies with the way we have as providers of Nuclear energy, relied on designs intended for small scale Naval reactors and upscaled those reactors to city sized reactors. Just do a search on the GE three (which I've linked). We are currently using too many out dated reactors and have a major shortfall in our ability to deal with the extremely serious problems which Three Mile Island, Chenobyl, and Fukushima have hilighted, not to mention the manifold issues which have failed to make it to the public realm.

Until I see generational design change in Nuclear power generation I will be opposed to the haphazard Risk Analysis applied to it's ongoing use.
Kind regards and an apology for going off topic...
Scuba


----------



## hangseng

Scuba said:


> Absolutely HS, the gentlemans way...
> Not a big fan of coal and refuse to work in the industry but realise it's uses particularly coking coal. (Another argument however and enough said.)
> 
> My issue is with the instability of Fukushima R4 building and the spent fuel pool. If/when the structure fails (and it's rated a zero currently in terms of it's capacity to withstand another earthquake.), the spent fuel pool will drain removing the zirconium sheilding and fuel rods from the coolant and thus creating another meltdown directly exposed to atmosphere. Already, Fukushima is considered many times worse than Chenobyl/Pripyat in terms of the long term Cesium particle release/ water/ food contaminations measured to date.
> Essentially, our real issue lies with the way we have as providers of Nuclear energy, relied on designs intended for small scale Naval reactors and upscaled those reactors to city sized reactors. Just do a search on the GE three (which I've linked). We are currently using too many out dated reactors and have a major shortfall in our ability to deal with the extremely serious problems which Three Mile Island, Chenobyl, and Fukushima have hilighted, not to mention the manifold issues which have failed to make it to the public realm.
> 
> Until I see generational design change in Nuclear power generation I will be opposed to the haphazard Risk Analysis applied to it's ongoing use.
> Kind regards and an apology for going off topic...
> Scuba





No apology needed Scuba, not to me anyway. You aren't the first I have heard of making decision of personal conscience, as is everyones right.

However in the case of nuclear power I believe the risks are overstated and look at all available information. 

For instance I, you I feel sure, and many others still drive a car, when road fatalities account for the majority of deaths and permanent disabiilities world wide. Why do we not ban motor transport, instead of simply making cars faster and more powerful without any additional significant risk mitigation measures? Air bags are merely an after thought not a prevention. This doesn't stop investors/traders in transport, cars and all associated with this industry.

Coal I have already mentioned and is simply undisputably the most hazardous form of energy production when placed in context. This doesn't stop investors in coal.

Bhopal is on record as the worst chemical process plant disaster ever, shadowing all three nuclear accidents by a long shot.

From Wiki:
_"The official immediate death toll was 2,259 and the government of Madhya Pradesh has confirmed a total of 3,787 deaths related to the gas release. Others estimate 3,000 died within weeks and another 8,000 have since died from gas-related diseases. A government affidavit in 2006 stated the leak caused 558,125 injuries including 38,478 temporary partial and approximately 3,900 severely and permanently disabling injuries."_


Radiation/uranium as I am sure you are aware is naturally occurring and abundant on earth, we need do nothing it is still there. Nuclear plant accidents of note can be counted with 3 fingers, combined they account for a negigable number of fatalities and permanent disabilities in comparison to coal, cars and chemical plant incidents.

This chap places into context rather well IMO:

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2012/03/12/3451294.htm

*"The "Fukushima disaster" clouds the merits of nuclear power, argues Martin Freer"*

_"The dramatic events that unfolded at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant after last year's tsunami are commonly referred to as "the Fukushima disaster." We need look no further than this description to begin to understand the significant misconceptions that surround nuclear energy.

It was the tsunami, caused by the largest earthquake ever to strike Japan, which killed more than 16,000 people, destroyed or damaged roughly 125,000 buildings, and left the country facing what its prime minister described as its biggest crisis since World War II. Yet it is Fukushima that is habitually accorded the "disaster" label."_


How many were killed due to radiation and the accident at the Fukushima? None

How many were killed due to radiation and the accident at the 3 Mile Island? None

The 3 Mile event did result in a lot of fear due to ignorance and media hype, as did Fukushima. 

Wiki again stating this:
_"Public reaction to the event was probably influenced by The China Syndrome, a movie which had recently been released and which depicts an accident at a nuclear reactor."_

Chernobyl admittedly resulted in many unfortunate fatalities.
_"56 direct deaths (47 accident workers, and nine children with thyroid cancer), and it is estimated that there were 4,000 extra cancer deaths "_


Placed in context of all accidents that occurred in the same period of the above it makes nuclear look a lot safer than even driving to the shops.

I do agree old now outdated plant design and safety concerns should be addressed for both new nad old plants. There is ample evidence that new generation plant design is doing just that. Ironically, the Fukushima plant accident could have been avoided by simply raising the emergency power backup to the top of the plant instead of just above sea level. A design flaw and failure to identify and control risk I agree, but not an operational nuclear design flaw.

Fukushima was devastated by an earthquake and a Tsunami, literally a 1:1000 year event. Will it stop people living on the coast and going on coastal holidays? No

Will I continue to invest in uranium companies supplying fuel for Nuclear Power, most definitely.

But differing points of view is what makes the world go around and does aid in "keeping the bastards honest". Placing pressure on companies of all industries, not just nuclear, to improve safety standards should be applauded. Your personal stance is one means of doing so Scuba and I respect you for that.

I think this topic is relevant to almost any stock in industries where decisions of conscience are made, it is definitely not isolated to nuclear energy. Oil and Gas, transport, medical/drugs, property, chemical manufacture and on it goes.


Further reading:
*NOAA Looks at the Waters Near Fukushima Daiichi *
http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/2012/04/noaa-looks-at-waters-near-fukushima.html

*Fukushima-derived radionuclides in the ocean and biota off Japan*
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/03/26/1120794109.full.pdf+html

*Three Mile Island 
An accident at a Pennsylvania reactor transfixed the nation and hobbled America's nuclear energy industry. Is it poised for a comeback? *
_"In the end, the mishap at Three Mile Island did not end in a catastrophe or any serious injury, but a nation already wary of nuclear power turned against it with a vengeance. And a deadly explosion less than a decade later at the Chernobyl nuclear plant in what was then the Soviet Union convinced many nuclear-energy opponents that their fears were warranted. It's only now, 30 years after Three Mile Island, amid concerns about global warming and America's dependence on fossil fuels, that nuclear energy could be getting a second look. "_
http://teacher.scholastic.com/schol...features/index.asp?article=f031609_Three_Mile


----------



## herzy

fantastic post HS


----------



## Scuba

Yes P.



> How many were killed due to radiation and the accident at the Fukushima? None



Half life of Radio nuclides and <2 year exposures? _Only to be expected..._



> Radiation/uranium as I am sure you are aware is naturally occurring and abundant on earth, we need do nothing it is still there.



>460 Tons in common spent fuel pool at Fukushima Daichi plant...

Naturally occuring isotopes, Isotopes in spent fuel, U238 concentrate, Plutonium, Cesium, Strontium 90, Iodine isotopes
 _I've listed some _non-naturally occuring nuclides



> Nuclear plant accidents of note can be counted with 3 fingers, combined they account for a negigable number of fatalities and permanent disabilities in comparison to coal, cars and chemical plant incidents



List of nuclear power accidents by country
_Admittedly from Wiki, but the list is substantially longer than three. Furthermore, history has revealed itself many years and even decades later on numerous occasions..._



> Chernobyl admittedly resulted in many unfortunate fatalities.
> "56 direct deaths (47 accident workers, and nine children with thyroid cancer), and it is estimated that there were 4,000 extra cancer deaths "



What of the "liquidators" or "Human robots" the Soviets paid USD $10K for?
What of the costs of maintaining the "sarcophagus"? _Have you seen the BBC Horizons documentary (Inside Chernobyl's Sarcophagus) aired in the 1996?_ (I can mail you a recording if you wish my friend?)

_There are many reports online suggesting the data wasn't collected dilligently with regard to the health effects of the Chenobyl... Some reports even suggest this was an intention on the part of authorities..._

I read an article from a decent source this year (2012) discussing wild boar hunting in Germany and how the hunters were still unable to eat their prey. I apologise for not linking, but here's one anyway...



> I do agree old now outdated plant design and safety concerns should be addressed for both new nad old plants. There is ample evidence that new generation plant design is doing just that. Ironically, the Fukushima plant accident could have been avoided by simply raising the emergency power backup to the top of the plant instead of just above sea level. A design flaw and failure to identify and control risk I agree, but not an operational nuclear design flaw.




How do we define outdated, given the Fukushima plant was actually slated for shutdown recently but kept running due to "Operational energy requirements"? TEPCO were warned by their own *Engineers* of some of the issues, particularly of Tsunami risk including amplitude thereof (as noted in the public realm).  (_I remember our PM discussions HS _)

Again, look back to the genesis of the nuclear power generation technologies; money was invested into development of the "Naval reactor" not the larger scale options... _Where I disagree with you friend in the design flaws._  Also, I do appreciate how the breeder reactor automatically scrams during power supply failures, but the problem is the breeder reactor creates highly radioactive waste (so essentially, it solves one problem but creates another in the form of storage of relatively long half-life waste).


With regard to the one in a thousand year event though, I often argue this with my wife in the case of our ability as humans to measure and store the data on such events... _She refers to an increased incidence of cancers/ I suggest we didn't perform so many autopsies or posess diagnostic definitions to prove the case...?_

*NOAA Looks at the Waters Near Fukushima Daiichi * I found this quite interesting in terms of the dates HS; the article was published on April 3rd 2012 and the first paragraph opens with "The American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency sent a research vessel boat to Japan *last April* to study the waters near the Fukushima Daiichi facility and assess the impact of radioactive isotopes released into the water by the plant." The bold highlight suggests "last April" which would have been April 2011 _around one month after the Tsunami incident and resultant containment breeches at Fukushima..._ Japanese tuna trace radioactive path *and* Massive fish kill outside Tokyo in Chiba ”” “The sight is somewhat apocalyptic” ”” “Almost looks like a carpet of sardines” may be worth having a look at also...

I will endeavour to read the National Academy article and suggest you read on Sodium reactor issues in the U.S. (what made public realm), and Thorium reactors (which would be brilliant if we could make a portable fission reactor to "jump start" the Thorium)...

I imagine a post from the mods could be due however, I appreciate the opportunity to discuss such things in this forum...

With kind regard,
Scuba


----------



## Scuba

By the way HS, I do love your Cohen quote Sig...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Its in a downtrend.

Avoid.

gg


----------



## Scuba

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Its in a downtrend.
> 
> Avoid.
> 
> gg



Ever the trader ROFLs @ Capone


----------



## tech/a

Scuba said:


> Ever the trader ROFLs @ Capone




Quite a few laughs on this thread.
With nothing to do with GG.


----------



## hangseng

Scuba said:


> By the way HS, I do love your Cohen quote Sig...





Worth listening to his music Scuba, very insightful.

Thanks for the detailed posts on this topic mate, clearly we have (some) differences of opinion on this subject. 

For the reasons you have stated I won't continue with this on the threads, but it was worthwhile and I am sure enough for others to commence their own search into the topic.


----------



## Scuba

Agreed, and I have...


----------



## barney

Technically, anticipating some upward price movement from these levels ........ a nudge back above 4 cents will look healthy.  

Fundamentally, not a lot of Uranium juniors as advanced as this project, and PALA don't want 20% of the Company just for the prestige I'm sure 

Happy to accumulate from here


----------



## skc

barney said:


> Fundamentally, not a lot of Uranium juniors as advanced as this project, and *PALA don't want 20% of the Company just for the prestige I'm sure*




Lazzard didn't become cornerstone investor in Hasties' recapitalisation for fun either. The big boys have lots of money, and when they move in and out of stock they can create plenty of waves... but they don't get it right all the time.

Not to PEN in particular, but statements like these really should have no bearing on one's investment decision imo.


----------



## barney

skc said:


> when they move in and out of stock they can create plenty of waves... *but they don't get it right all the time.*.




That is true, they don't ........ however ...........  Waves = opportunity. I assume you agree?




skc said:


> statements like these really should have *no bearing *on one's investment decision imo.




Trading decision, not Investing decision ..... big difference.  I'm surprised that I have to defend that statement to someone who trades as much as you SKC

Specs are sentiment driven as you know.  Would you consider PALA's decision to up their stake creates a positive sentiment or a negative one?


----------



## tech/a

Nothing on this chart technically.
Unless you create it!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Nothing on this chart technically.
> Unless you create it!




Have to disagree on that one Tech.  The large holders who have been both capping it and accumulating it till the PENOA's ran out will have to show their hand sooner or later.  

There was a little more urgency on Friday, but no real push just yet.  I'd actually like to see one more nudge to the downside to flush out any remaining sellers so I can complete my order, but i'm not sure we will get that chance until the next spike higher considering some of the buy orders that went through on Friday. ( *ps. I am accumulating ... I don't trade breakouts*) 

Perhaps I should start adding the following disclaimer to my posts to eliminate any assumption/confusion from other "more experienced" traders who may perceive my methods as unsuitable

Disclaimer:  All my posts are purely my opinion. If anyone follows my opinion you will most likely lose your money, so its possibly best to do the opposite .... or simply make your own decisions 

pps. *Take appropriate risk mangement in case your assessment of any stock is incorrect!*  ... Hope that clears up any confusion with the intent of my posts.

ppps.    The four largest buy orders on Friday for this downtrending/nothing happening stock were ...

*$32,948.92 .... $38,940.00 .... $22,354.35 .... and .... $106,324.46*  ... make up your own mind cause I know nothing


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Have to disagree on that one Tech.  The large holders who have been both capping it and accumulating it till the PENOA's ran out will have to show their hand sooner or later.
> 
> There was a little more urgency on Friday, but no real push just yet.  I'd actually like to see one more nudge to the downside to flush out any remaining sellers so I can complete my order, but i'm not sure we will get that chance until the next spike higher considering some of the buy orders that went through on Friday. ( *ps. I am accumulating ... I don't trade breakouts*)
> 
> Perhaps I should start adding the following disclaimer to my posts to eliminate any assumption/confusion from other "more experienced" traders who may perceive my methods as unsuitable
> 
> Disclaimer:  All my posts are purely my opinion. If anyone follows my opinion you will most likely lose your money, so its possibly best to do the opposite .... or simply make your own decisions
> 
> pps. *Take appropriate risk mangement in case your assessment of any stock is incorrect!*  ... Hope that clears up any confusion with the intent of my posts.
> 
> ppps.    The four largest buy orders on Friday for this downtrending/nothing happening stock were ...
> 
> *$32,948.92 .... $38,940.00 .... $22,354.35 .... and .... $106,324.46*  ... make up your own mind cause I know nothing




Thanks
Very informative.


----------



## Boggo

A follow up from this in early May...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=121&p=701898&viewfull=1#post701898

Until this breaks up through .053/.054 then this is the likely scenario, well, that is in my opinion anyway 

(click to expand)


----------



## hangseng

For anyone interested in fundamental analysis...

*RCR, Resource Capital Research*
Quarterly Uranium Report - Abridged
Uranium Sector Review
Exploration, Development & Production
June Quarter 2012
http://www.rcresearch.com.au/documents/uranium/reports/0/australia/

Free to sign up and download the latest uranium research report, yes PEN is in there as are a few others. Interesting to see how many have dropped off the list, unsurprisingly some past "market darlings" such as BLR and BMN that went nowhere and fell from heights much greater than PEN did. At least PEN will be well positioned and cashed up to bounce back short term, the others will flounder for years to come.


----------



## jancha

In March of 2007 a lawn bowls mate whose brother inlaw was a stock broker recommended PEN as a stock to buy. 
I cant remember what the sp was back then but i would say it would be lower now than what it was back then. 
My point is this company will never have a dividend so why would anyone want to hold a share like PEN?
A day trader perhaps but noone seriously would hold this stock long term thinking they'll get a dividend return surely so whats the point?


----------



## burglar

jancha said:


> ... so whats the point?




Capital Gain!


----------



## Boggo

jancha said:


> In March of 2007 a lawn bowls mate whose brother inlaw was a stock broker recommended PEN as a stock to buy.



Tips are for waiters.
Three brokers had a _buy_ and four had _hold_ on BBG in the week leading up to its last big drop.




jancha said:


> A day trader perhaps but noone seriously would hold this stock long term thinking they'll get a dividend return surely so whats the point?






burglar said:


> Capital Gain!




A good example of the risks associated with buy and hold even for the dividend is BHP. Today BHP closed 8 cents higher than its close on the 12th May 2006. In that time it has paid $5.20 in fully franked dividends and the share price has been all the way to a high of $50.00 in May 2008.

Buy and hold for six years for the dividend or be active and realise at least triple that in two years by not riding the decline, I know which I would do.
My


----------



## jancha

Boggo said:


> Tips are for waiters.
> Three brokers had a _buy_ and four had _hold_ on BBG in the week leading up to its last big drop.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A good example of the risks associated with buy and hold even for the dividend is BHP. Today BHP closed 8 cents higher than its close on the 12th May 2006. In that time it has paid $5.20 in fully franked dividends and the share price has been all the way to a high of $50.00 in May 2008.
> 
> Buy and hold for six years for the dividend or be active and realise at least triple that in two years by not riding the decline, I know which I would do.
> My




Yes i agree with what your saying but BHP is paying a dividend and when the market returns with more confidence should rise back to that $50 level. PEN on the other hand may well rise back and triple it's value perhaps making it a better buy over BHP. 
PEN however isn't worth a cracker to a serious investor just a penny stock for day traders to make or lose a buck.  Like yourself and Tech good profits to be made if you can pick the right time to get in and out but someone would have to be losing on them in order for you to gain.
Getting back to BHP tho you failed to mention what they were back when they 1st started and what their total dividend would have earnt you from the beginning to now. Quite a bit more than $5.20 fully franked as well as the sp it was back then.
 Not a very good example coming from a seasoned pro like yourself.
 Risk factor for PEN? Plenty unless you your stop loss is in place and you get it right more often than not. Each to their own.


----------



## hangseng

jancha said:


> Risk factor for PEN? Plenty





Really?

Based on what exactly, I would be very interested to see your basis for that open ended statement. If based on day trading you are probably right, as a medium term investment I think you are way off the mark.

You also state PEN "will never have a dividend so why would anyone want to hold a share like PEN". How would you know if they will or won't pay a dividend? Not that I care anyway as that isn't my purpose as dividends are a tax liability to me.

Why would anyone want to invest in PEN? You will find that out come this time next year IMO, in fact I believe much sooner but I will remain conservative for now.

Another good announcement today


----------



## jancha

hangseng said:


> Really?
> 
> Based on what exactly, I would be very interested to see your basis for that open ended statement. If based on day trading you are probably right, as a medium term investment I think you are way off the mark.
> 
> You also state PEN "will never have a dividend so why would anyone want to hold a share like PEN". How would you know if they will or won't pay a dividend? Not that I care anyway as that isn't my purpose as dividends are a tax liability to me.
> 
> Why would anyone want to invest in PEN? You will find that out come this time next year IMO, in fact I believe much sooner but I will remain conservative for now.
> 
> Another good announcement today




 PEN could drop 20% 30% in a short period of time (for no particular reason) and unless you have a stop loss in place you could lose quite a lot. Yes day trading is what i'm referring to but even with medium to long term...your not getting a dividend and you could be stuck with it for a long period of time given the way the market is (dead money). You would have to be buying in and out of this share in order to make any money and you have to know what your doing.  I dont. It's .035c? atm. Looks like a good time to come in at this price but i'm only guessing and i could be wrong. 
I find other stocks that i'm more comfortable trading in and out of. PEN isn't one of them.
You must be a bit bias with PEN tho to predict where they'll be this time next year given the market as it stands.


----------



## sammy84

hangseng said:


> Not that I care anyway as that isn't my purpose as dividends are a tax liability to me.




So are all forms of profit......


----------



## jancha

sammy84 said:


> So are all forms of profit......




Not if they're fully franked but i dont think PEN would pay out any dividends let alone it being fully franked. 
Have they ever paid a dividend? And how long have they been around? Cant see anything in the future that would suggest it either.


----------



## Ubershrewd

jancha said:


> Not if they're fully franked but i dont think PEN would pay out any dividends let alone it being fully franked.
> Have they ever paid a dividend? And how long have they been around? Cant see anything in the future that would suggest it either.




If everyone took your point of view no one would invest in speccy stocks. In fact I would be concerned if a company still in EXPLORATION phase started to pay dividends. What would they be paying us with? The money they raised from us?


----------



## sammy84

jancha said:


> Not if they're fully franked but i dont think PEN would pay out any dividends let alone it being fully franked.
> Have they ever paid a dividend? And how long have they been around? Cant see anything in the future that would suggest it either.




You would still be paying tax if the div was fully franked, just less.

My point was more about people worrying about their tax liability, it is beyond me. First concern with stocks should always be about making a profit! I much prefer to make money and pay the subsequent tax.


----------



## hangseng

sammy84 said:


> So are all forms of profit......




Not if a non-resident, as I am. One benefit of living and working overseas and trading offshore. I wish I had found it long ago, yes I would have sold out of PEN and moved on without a second thought.

Dividends and Australian property share related investments are taxable. Capital gains on other shares are not, e.g. mining and resource stocks ...e.g. PEN. Look it up on the ATO website, a federal law passed on this around 2006 I believe to encourage overseas equity inflow to Australian companies.

Capital gains on shares are not a tax liability for me dividends are, so I care not if they ever pay a dividend. I am all but certain I will be long out of PEN, smiling (am now and will be anyway) and retired before that day arrives.


----------



## mrlister

hangseng said:


> Not if a non-resident, as I am. One benefit of living and working overseas and trading offshore. I wish I had found it long ago, yes I would have sold out of PEN and moved on without a second thought.
> 
> Dividends and Australian property share related investments are taxable. Capital gains on other shares are not, e.g. mining and resource stocks ...e.g. PEN. Look it up on the ATO website, a federal law passed on this around 2006 I believe to encourage overseas equity inflow to Australian companies.
> 
> Capital gains on shares are not a tax liability for me dividends are, so I care not if they ever pay a dividend. I am all but certain I will be long out of PEN, smiling (am now and will be anyway) and retired before that day arrives.




are you saying that if you are a non-resident you dont pay capital gains on profit from shares in mining sector...or resident or non-resident both have this tax break?


----------



## jancha

hangseng said:


> Not if a non-resident, as I am. One benefit of living and working overseas and trading offshore. I wish I had found it long ago, yes I would have sold out of PEN and moved on without a second thought.
> 
> Dividends and Australian property share related investments are taxable. Capital gains on other shares are not, e.g. mining and resource stocks ...e.g. PEN. Look it up on the ATO website, a federal law passed on this around 2006 I believe to encourage overseas equity inflow to Australian companies.
> 
> Capital gains on shares are not a tax liability for me dividends are, so I care not if they ever pay a dividend. I am all but certain I will be long out of PEN, smiling (am now and will be anyway) and retired before that day arrives.




So what amount of tax do you pay on your capital gains earnings overseas or dont you pay tax at all overseas?


----------



## hangseng

jancha said:


> So what amount of tax do you pay on your capital gains earnings overseas or dont you pay tax at all overseas?




I only pay tax locally on my earnings here, I now pay no CGT on shares traded on the ASX.

Key term "non resident" for taxation purposes.


----------



## sammy84

hangseng said:


> I only pay tax locally on my earnings here, I now pay no CGT on shares traded on the ASX.
> 
> Key term "non resident" for taxation purposes.




From memory you live in Indonesia right?

You might be mistaken on your knowledge of the tax law over there. The detection risk is low though.


----------



## jancha

hangseng said:


> I only pay tax locally on my earnings here, I now pay no CGT on shares traded on the ASX.
> 
> Key term "non resident" for taxation purposes.




I gather your still an Australian citizen with no residence here?


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> I only pay tax locally on my earnings here, I now pay no CGT on shares traded on the ASX.
> 
> Key term "non resident" for taxation purposes.




From what Ive seen H/S earnings (taxation of) doesnt seem to be an issue for you.


----------



## hangseng

jancha said:


> I gather your still an Australian citizen with no residence here?




Learn the definition of "non resident" and "domicile"

Nothing to do with having a residence or not.


----------



## sammy84

sammy84 said:


> From memory you live in Indonesia right?
> 
> You might be mistaken on your knowledge of the tax law over there. The detection risk is low though.




Just saw your location on the side tab. Not to detract from the PEN thread but I thought it would be useful to note the following:

Indonesia taxes on a worldwide basis. Meaning any gains made in Indonesia or offshore are subject to tax. 

An economic gain, be it a capital gain or income, is deemed taxable by the Indonesian authorities. The likelihood of detection is low, but I wouldn't go bragging on a forum that you're not taxed.


----------



## jancha

sammy84 said:


> Just saw your location on the side tab. Not to detract from the PEN thread but I thought it would be useful to note the following:
> 
> Indonesia taxes on a worldwide basis. Meaning any gains made in Indonesia or offshore are subject to tax.
> 
> An economic gain, be it a capital gain or income, is deemed taxable by the Indonesian authorities. The likelihood of detection is low, but I wouldn't go bragging on a forum that you're not taxed.




That's what i thought but at what tax rate would he have to pay over there? (if he did actually pay the taxes there).


----------



## barney

jancha said:


> My point is this company will never have a dividend so why would anyone want to hold a share like PEN?
> 
> whats the point?






jancha said:


> PEN however isn't worth a cracker to a serious investor just a penny stock    Risk factor for PEN? Plenty unless you your stop loss is in place






jancha said:


> PEN could drop 20% 30% in a short period of time and unless you have a stop loss in place you could lose quite a lot.
> 
> ...your not getting a dividend and you could be stuck with it for a long period of time I find other stocks that i'm more comfortable trading in and out of. PEN isn't one of them.






jancha said:


> Have they ever paid a dividend? And how long have they been around? Cant see anything in the future that would suggest it either.





Not a dig Jancha ... but don't you trade "RED"?  ......  The difference between trading a stock like PEN and a stock like RED is? 



tech/a said:


> From what Ive seen H/S earnings (taxation of) doesnt seem to be an issue for you.




  ............ I know its your warped sense of humour ..... and it is friday ....  but still poor form Tech.


----------



## hangseng

sammy84 said:


> Just saw your location on the side tab. Not to detract from the PEN thread but I thought it would be useful to note the following:
> 
> Indonesia taxes on a worldwide basis. Meaning any gains made in Indonesia or offshore are subject to tax.
> 
> An economic gain, be it a capital gain or income, is deemed taxable by the Indonesian authorities. The likelihood of detection is low, but I wouldn't go bragging on a forum that you're not taxed.




Absolutely they do tax on a worldwide basis, as does Australia.

You are like so many others here and assume far too much. I never "bragged" as you put it, I merely stated a fact re Australan taxation as it relates to residency status clearly some here have no idea of how this applies. As for here, I pay my taxes as I should, but only on what I have to it isn't as cut and dry as you make it seem.

Back to PEN, interesting to see so many new faces here posting on a stock they claim they have no interest in. Why post at all? No doubting trying (again) to save holders from themselves lol....


----------



## jancha

barney said:


> Not a dig Jancha ... but don't you trade "RED"?  ......  The difference between trading a stock like PEN and a stock like RED is?
> 
> 
> 
> ............ I know its your warped sense of humour ..... and it is friday ....  but still poor form Tech.




The possibility of a dividend down the track now that they're in their early stage of production (talk of it at least) and basically feel more comfortable trading in and out of them when the price seems right. Not holding atm.  
Are there companies that you steer clear of?


----------



## barney

jancha said:


> The possibility of a dividend down the track now that they're in their early stage of production (talk of it at least) and basically feel more comfortable trading in and out of them when the price seems right. Not holding atm.
> Are there companies that you steer clear of?





Its fine Jancha. I was more concerned you were turning into another PEN basher:  ...... I just wasn't expecting a RED trader to start bashing up on PEN traders considering they seem juxtaposed in many ways.

As for Companies I steer clear of ............ Hindsight tells me I should have steered clear of about 60% of all the Companies I've traded in the past 6 months


----------



## dengo

Boggo said:


> A follow up from this in early May...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=121&p=701898&viewfull=1#post701898
> Until this breaks up through .053/.054 then this is the likely scenario, well, that is in my opinion anyway




I agree Boggo, 
Should 3.1 support fail, my descending triangle target is 
3.1 - (4.3 - 3.1) = 1.9c


----------



## hangseng

Last submission hurdle to the Permit to Mine. Only pending a public discolosure period of a few weeks and the Permit to Mine will be issued.

source: http://adamswebsearch2.nrc.gov/webSearch2/main.jsp?AccessionNumber='ML12206A379'

July 23, 2012
Mr. Miles Bennett
Land Quality Division, District 3
Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality
2100 West 5th Street
Sheridan, WY 82801

*RE: Submittal of Reclamation Performance Bond Certificate, Ross ISR Project Permit to Mine Application, TFN 5 5/217*

Dear Mr. Bennett:

      On behalf of Strata Energy, thank you for your diligence in getting the Ross ISR Project Permit to Mine application closer to the finish line. As we have discussed, please find the attached Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service (CDARS) document submitted to replace the currently blank page A-12 (Bond Instrument) of the Ross Adjudication File. In addition, page A-13 has also been revised and provided to maintain the integrity of the File. Strata is providing two (2) copies of these replacement pages as well as two copies of the updated Index of Change.

If you have any questions or concerns, feel free to contact myself or Mr. Knode.

Sincerely,
Benjamin Schiffer, P.G.
Project Manager

/bjs
Encl: as noted
CC: Mr. Ralph Knode, Strata Business Office (with enclosures)
Mr. John Saxton, USNRC (without enclosures)
Mr. James Bashor, BLM-NFO (without enclosures)


----------



## barney

Nice break out of the trading range today with some good sized orders changing hands .... been on the cards for a couple of weeks ...... Looks like the lid might go back on now around 3.6 cents and the low 3's should give good support ....... positive action.


----------



## tech/a

.







barney said:


> Nice break out of the trading range today with some good sized orders changing hands .... been on the cards for a couple of weeks ...... Looks like the lid might go back on now around 3.6 cents and the low 3's should give good support ....... positive action.




Should do---Lets see how Supply reacts to any up move.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> .
> 
> Should do---Lets see how Supply reacts to any up move.




Oooops


Below 3c not good.


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> Below 3c not good.




Support broken...
Measured move target = 

2.9 - (3.7 - 2.9) = 2.1c


----------



## Miner

dengo said:


> Support broken...
> Measured move target =
> 
> 2.9 - (3.7 - 2.9) = 2.1c
> 
> View attachment 48850




OK.Does it give a buy signal then at 2.1 cents  ? Look at recent US decision allowing to build more nuclear weapon.


----------



## tech/a

Miner
It's pretty common for support to be broken without
Follow through,infact it happens more often than not.

PEN isn't showing any technical entry signals.
It's simply at the bottom of a range.


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> Miner PEN isn't showing any technical entry signals.
> It's simply at the bottom of a range.




Trouble is, it's ranging down


----------



## hangseng

*Vale Tony Simpson*

Very sad to hear of the recent passing of Tony Simpson.

Former COO of PEN and then CEO of BLR. Instrumental in achieving the aquisition of so much valued ground at Lance, some of which was never explored due to past strict land owner restrictions. Restrictions Tony obviously overcame with his professional and straight forward no bulldust approach.

My sympathies extend to his family and friends.

See the BLR announcements for notices of his passing.


----------



## dengo

2.8c support broken

Short term measured move target = 2.8 - (3.1 - 2.8) = 2.5c

2.5c = yearly low


----------



## flashman1207

Hangseng,
  Do you have any comments/knowledge of the recent petitions at:

http://deq.state.wy.us/eqc/Docket/12-4803 Strata Energy/12-4803 Strata Energy.html

particularly the Merit one? Is this going to delay things even further?

Thx
Flash


----------



## dengo

flashman1207 said:


> Is this going to delay things even further?




"It’s expected to be a long two or three years before uranium prices pick back up."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2012/09/24/nuclear-energys-limp-causing-uranium-prices-to-stumble/


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Should 3.1 support fail, my descending triangle target is
> 3.1 - (4.3 - 3.1) = 1.9c
> 
> View attachment 47950




Longer term target


----------



## dengo

Looks like a bearish continuation descending triangle pattern if I'm not mistaken.

Measured move target = 2.4 - (2.8 - 2.4) = 2.0c


----------



## GT 86

The latest drills results show that they are unable to achieve continuity of resource.

The Kendrick high grades in shallow thickness are typical of roll fronts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . geologically patchy by nature.

They continue to burn cash . . . . . . . . . . . and I think it is time that management reviewed their own salaries.

GT


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> Looks like a bearish continuation descending triangle pattern if I'm not mistaken.
> 
> Measured move target = 2.4 - (2.8 - 2.4) = 2.0c
> 
> View attachment 49290




Not looking very bearish at all. Nearly 20 million traded Fri arvo as the mine permits are about to be issued. Objections have been negotiated and agreed to by Strata last night.
http://deq.state.wy.us/eqc/Docket/1...pulation to Amend Permit Withdraw Request.pdf


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> Not looking very bearish at all...Objections have been negotiated and agreed to by Strata last night



 Sounds _imminent_...

"Uranium Woes: No Relief for Prices Amid Low Demand -

Spot prices for uranium hit a two-year low last week at $45.75 amid a pending decision over Japan’s nuclear future, excess uranium inventories and slowing growth in China...and the more realistic outlook for a spike in uranium prices in probably 4-6 years"

http://247wallst.com/2012/10/17/uranium-woes-no-relief-for-prices-amid-low-demand/


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> Sounds _imminent_...
> 
> "Uranium Woes: No Relief for Prices Amid Low Demand -
> 
> Spot prices for uranium hit a two-year low last week at $45.75 amid a pending decision over Japan’s nuclear future, excess uranium inventories and slowing growth in China...and the more realistic outlook for a spike in uranium prices in probably 4-6 years"
> 
> http://247wallst.com/2012/10/17/uranium-woes-no-relief-for-prices-amid-low-demand/




Spot prices dont mean squat to most U miners. They sign off on long term supply contracts with utilities at much higher prices most around $65-$70 currently. PEN is about to be issued with Permit To Mine and then likely to sign off on a funding deal. 2013 will see mine construction begin and end 2013 likely SML issued which will greenlight production something the USA is screaming out for at moment, home grown energy supply.


----------



## Miner

Folks
Any guess if PEN would be able to capitalise recent discussion and possible off take contracts by India per recent visit of Julia Gillard to India ?


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> something the USA is screaming out for at moment, home grown energy supply.




You failed to include the words safe and affordable. Remember the current global slow-down and Fukushima.
The only screaming being done world-wide is by those objecting to nuclear power!

"Nuclear waste issues freeze permits for U.S. power plants - August 9, 2012"

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/09/news/economy/nuclear-plants-waste/index.htm


----------



## mickqld

Doesn't look like Japan is going to leave all these plants offline for too much longer. Germans wont be far behind either when the economic cost of power shortages or importing power begins to really bite.

Hydrogen fix for Japanese reactors

19 October 2012

Areva is to fit all 23 Japanese pressurized water reactors with hydrogen recombiners that help to prevent the explosive gas building up in emergency situations.
The French company announced a contract to provide a bulk order of its passive autocatalytic recombiners. The devices use catalytic oxidation to turn traces of hydrogen into steam, a process that works constantly and requires no power. They will be fitted in the reactor unit containment vessels to help prevent hydrogen explosions and "preserve the integrity of the reactor," said Areva.
Many nuclear operators installed systems to manage hydrogen after the partial core melt at Three Mile Island in 1979. Unfortunately, this was not the case in Japan. During the accident at Fukushima Daiichi last year, many hours without power for cooling water pumps saw nuclear fuel in the cores of units 1, 2 and 3 overheat to the point that zirconium fuel cladding oxidised in the presence of steam, producing hydrogen and oxygen. At units 1 and 3 this was able to escape the containment and concentrate in the tops of the buildings, where it eventually exploded and caused extensive physical damage to those units as well as unit 4.
Areva said it will install more than 100 of its devices at the Japanese pressurized water reactors, which make up 23 of the country's 50-reactor fleet. The reactor type is used at the following Japanese nuclear power plants: Ikata, Mihama, Ohi, Sendai, Takahama, Tsuruga, Tomari and Genkai.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Hydrogen_solution_for_Japanese_reactors_1910121.html


----------



## mickqld

Miner said:


> Folks
> Any guess if PEN would be able to capitalise recent discussion and possible off take contracts by India per recent visit of Julia Gillard to India ?




I think we'll find PEN will be selling most of their product to USA companies.


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> 2013 will see mine construction begin and end 2013 likely SML issued which will greenlight production something the USA is screaming out for at moment, home grown energy supply.




The USA is not screaming out for home grown energy supply, it is offloading it.   PEN is based in Wyoming...

"Federal uranium stockpile sales still spark concern -

Cold War-era uranium stockpiles are being sold off at a rate that U.S. Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., describes as too fast.
So fast that they could affect the Wyoming uranium industry.

“They’re making it much harder to produce uranium in Wyoming and other places in the country.”"

http://trib.com/business/energy/federal-uranium-stockpile-sales-still-spark-concern/article_3e6ca420-7793-5a23-aae4-50f91ec51dca.html?comment_form=true


----------



## mickqld

USA annual Uranium consumption 55 milion lbs
USA annual Uranium production     4 million lbs

USA annual Uranium import reliance  95%. I'm sure, like oil, they would much rather rely on importing their energy supply than growing it at home..........LOL 


http://www.nwma.org/pdf/Nuclear Power Needs American Uranium.pdf


----------



## mickqld

"At this point, the uranium miners are trading near 52-week lows, and I believe they are extremely undervalued. Even Japan is looking to acquire uranium miners."


http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/14596


----------



## mickqld

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/14596

"..........TER: Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC:NYSE.MKT) is currently producing uranium from its Palangana in-situ deposit in Texas, and it is developing the Goliad in-situ project, also in Texas. Is the success of that company impacting others in the sector? In other words, is this a template that investors can follow with similar companies?

JH: Yes, exactly. When you start seeing new U.S. uranium production, it's a huge boost of confidence for the entire sector. This may impact other companies such as Ur-Energy, which recently received its permits for construction and Uranerz, which has a great position in the Powder River Basin and which already has a processing agreement with Cameco at its nearby Smith Ranch in-situ uranium asset. It already has an offtake agreement with a very large utility at much higher uranium prices, at like I think $60–65/pound (lb). We believe it will shortly receive its final deepwater disposal well permit for production. 

TER: Do you think there will be further consolidation in the Athabasca Basin? Or is Texas looking ripe for the picking right now? 

JH: You have to look for operations where it is already working, such as in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming with Uranerz or in the Athabasca Basin. Some names there are Denison Mines Corp. (DML:TSX; DNN:NYSE.MKT), UEX Corp. (UEX:TSX) and Fission Energy Corp. (FIS:TSX.V; FSSIF:OTCQX), which could attract a major that is looking for exploration plays modeled after Hathor Exploration's success, using some of the same technical personnel.........."


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> Spot prices dont mean squat to most U miners. 2013 will see mine construction begin and end 2013...



Are you a U miner? Doubt it. You're a long term holder.
U stocks don't rise without a rising spot price.
Construction won't bring a SP rise either. Uranerz are further advanced than PEN.
Here's their chart showing what happened to the SP after construction was announced...
A 50% crash...

http://www.uranerz.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=469375&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Uranerz-Commences-ISR-Uranium-Mine-Construction


----------



## mickqld

Uranerz drop wouldn't have had anything to do with Fukushima and the media driven hysteria for months afterwards would It ??????


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> Uranerz drop wouldn't have had anything to do with Fukushima and the media driven hysteria for months afterwards would It ??????



Partly. More likely speculators losing interest & selling the news...

Are you aware that Fukushima still threatens Global Human Survival?

"The ground beneath Unit 4 has sunk by about 31.5 inches already.  Further sinking, or a minor earthquake could cause the entire structure to collapse, draining the pool and causing a meltdown of potentially catastrophic proportions.  Some scientists predict that this would mean the ruin of Japan and a serious threat to the rest of the world."  21 October 2012

http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/news/nature/2012/10/19/4621.html


----------



## Miner

dengo said:


> Are you a U miner? Doubt it. You're a long term holder.
> U stocks don't rise without a rising spot price.
> Construction won't bring a SP rise either. Uranerz are further advanced than PEN.
> Here's their chart showing what happened to the SP after construction was announced...
> A 50% crash...
> 
> http://www.uranerz.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=469375&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Uranerz-Commences-ISR-Uranium-Mine-Construction
> 
> View attachment 49402




Dear Dengo

Congratulations
I found your cautionary and doubting postings about PEN is inversly proportional to the price increase of PEN stock 
So good sign is please do continue with more alarming news about PEN and uranium stocks, as I am sure Market will  love that to increase PEN share price for some of us to quit 
Take care and LOL


----------



## mickqld

Permit to Mine is expected to be granted mid November. Share price has certainly reacted well to the impending permit. Some recent high volume days are showing renewed interest in PEN hopefully the good news will continue with a funding deal announced by Christmas.


----------



## GT 86

I think a capital raising is on the way . . . . . . . . . more dilution


GT 86


----------



## mickqld

GT 86 said:


> I think a capital raising is on the way . . . . . . . . . more dilution
> 
> 
> GT 86




Funding for mine construction and production will come from a debt/equity deal not capital raising by issuing more shares. Company has all but stated such in previous announcements.


----------



## hangseng

GT 86 said:


> I think a capital raising is on the way . . . . . . . . . more dilution
> 
> 
> GT 86





Really, why is that? Evidence or just a traders "gut feel'?


May I add learn a little and read Mick's last post.


----------



## GT 86

The people that own the largest holding in this stock, have in my opnion just taken their foot off the brake . . . . .  . . while the carrot of the PTM is held in front of retail investors.

Forget the permit to mine . . . . . . . . . investors should be more concerned about a JORC threshold being met.

When the company can release a commercial size resource via JORC, my opinion may change.

This is a resource company . . . . . . . .where is it? . . . . . . .at this stage it appears not in one spot, and becoming deeper with every set of drill results.

Much more expensive to extract at the deeper levels, PFS / DFS allows for average depth of about 500m . . . . .  . although all the latest drilling is 900m.

Roll fronts are notorious for being patchy in resource and grade, as the most recent string of drill results have shown. 

I am not impressed with the large pay packets of people who have at this stage not been able to deliver their promised commercial size JORC. 

The above are facts . . . . . . . . 

Current move is good for traders . . . . . but which ones?


GT 86


----------



## hangseng

GT 86 said:


> The people that own the largest holding in this stock, have in my opnion just taken their foot off the brake . . . . .  . . while the carrot of the PTM is held in front of retail investors.
> 
> Forget the permit to mine . . . . . . . . . investors should be more concerned about a JORC threshold being met.
> 
> When the company can release a commercial size resource via JORC, my opinion may change.
> 
> This is a resource company . . . . . . . .where is it? . . . . . . .at this stage it appears not in one spot, and becoming deeper with every set of drill results.
> 
> Much more expensive to extract at the deeper levels, PFS / DFS allows for average depth of about 500m . . . . .  . although all the latest drilling is 900m.
> 
> Roll fronts are notorious for being patchy in resource and grade, as the most recent string of drill results have shown.
> 
> I am not impressed with the large pay packets of people who have at this stage not been able to deliver their promised commercial size JORC.
> 
> The above are facts . . . . . . . .
> 
> Current move is good for traders . . . . . but which ones?
> 
> 
> GT 86






Throwing out a lot of spanners there GT86, bit of a sling the mud approach it seems. What about the further dilution you said is coming? Off that topic and sling around some more rot.

"commercial size resource via JORC"? Really? Please pray tell what YOU regard as "commercial size resource via JORC".

yawn... same old same old


edit....Bit slow off the mark today but now see you are a fan of the ongoing dog soon to be heavily diluted BLR. The stock I was hounded down for my prediction it would go sub 2c and went to 1.9 and now 1.7 and looks sick as the dog it is. Yes a big resource but that is about it. Talk of PEA and going to 6c is simply ramping rot, it has fallen from over 30c for a reason. Major environmental hurdles, no cash and needs cash fast to continue lining the pickets of management that have taken that company nowhere and shareholders for a ride like some rampers eh buc...

PEN will be producer at least 4 years ahead of BLR and will be cashed up and advancing Karoo. Whilst BLR will still be pondering a permit to mine.


----------



## GT 86

"PEN will be producer at least 4 years ahead of BLR and will be cashed up and advancing Karoo. Whilst BLR will still be pondering a permit to mine. "

Maybe, but BLR have a resource, PEN is still drilling, rather odd for a company that is so close to producing.

I believe that PEN was supposed to be producing by now, based on your own earlier predictions . . . . .  . . . can you enlighten me as to the factual reason this has not happened.

A slight matter of resource size seems to be slowing the progress . . . . . .  . . at PEN, but they are drilling furiously to help that JORC. . . . . . .  . .at current cash burn, when will PEN need more funds for day to day expenses, other than drilling expenses. ?

I would be interested in your opinion on drilling going deeper and deeper, as stated from PFS/DFS 500 m to current 900 m, would you like to tell us how that will cost the same to extract. 

"Continuity of resource", seems to be the major problem . . . .  . .I would value your comment on this ?

Current environment for raising capital suggests that the best deal for an explorer come producer might be 50 % Debt and 50 % Equity.

Earlier estimates for full production costs per pound, are now heavily reliant on a lot more U being found in ONE spot. . . . . . . . . re " Continuity of Resource "

Would appreciate any clarity on the above . . . . .  . .as long as it is factual, not opinion.

Thanks

GT 86


----------



## mickqld

From the quaterly activities


"Drilling Programme
July to September 2012
During the September quarter Peninsula completed a further 304 development drillholes for a total of 303,275
feet at the Lance Projects. Two rotary mud rigs were engaged during the quarter.
Of the 304 drill holes completed during the quarter, a total of 33 holes encountered mineralisation greater than
0.2GT. A total of 35 holes recorded multiple stacked intersections of uranium mineralisation.
Drilling during the quarter has been focused on converting inferred resources to the indicated category in the
planned Kendrick Production Unit located to the west of the Ross Production Unit.
Drilling in the area has previously identified the K3, K4, K5, K5A and K6 roll fronts. These roll fronts merge in
places to produce wide areas of continuous mineralisation. This continuous mineralisation has now been
identified over a combined strike length of 22 kilometres with horizontal widths of up to 60m in the northern K5
area.The demonstrated continuity of the K3 roll front is over 7 kilometres, the K4 roll front over 1 kilometre, the K5 roll
front over 4.3 kilometres and the K6 roll front over 9.2 kilometres.
The most recent drilling has further defined the southern extensions of the K3, K4 and K5 roll fronts (towards the
Mellot Ranch area in the southern portion of the amendment area). The roll fronts in the Mellot Ranch area
consist of mineral deposits in sands belonging to the Lower Fox Hills Formation, together with the sands of the
Lower Lance Formation. In addition shallower roll front trends (M5) have been identified in two distinct sands in
the Upper Lance Formation. "

Doesn't sound like to me they are struggling to find enough continuous resource.


----------



## mickqld

GT 86 said:


> "PEN will be producer at least 4 years ahead of BLR and will be cashed up and advancing Karoo. Whilst BLR will still be pondering a permit to mine. "
> 
> Maybe, but BLR have a resource, PEN is still drilling, rather odd for a company that is so close to producing.
> 
> I believe that PEN was supposed to be producing by now, based on your own earlier predictions . . . . .  . . . can you enlighten me as to the factual reason this has not happened.
> 
> A slight matter of resource size seems to be slowing the progress . . . . . .  . . at PEN, but they are drilling furiously to help that JORC. . . . . . .  . .at current cash burn, when will PEN need more funds for day to day expenses, other than drilling expenses. ?
> 
> I would be interested in your opinion on drilling going deeper and deeper, as stated from PFS/DFS 500 m to current 900 m, would you like to tell us how that will cost the same to extract.
> 
> "Continuity of resource", seems to be the major problem . . . .  . .I would value your comment on this ?
> 
> Current environment for raising capital suggests that the best deal for an explorer come producer might be 50 % Debt and 50 % Equity.
> 
> Earlier estimates for full production costs per pound, are now heavily reliant on a lot more U being found in ONE spot. . . . . . . . . re " Continuity of Resource "
> 
> Would appreciate any clarity on the above . . . . .  . .as long as it is factual, not opinion.
> 
> Thanks
> 
> GT 86




 The table of holes drilled in the last quaterly varys from 500 ft to 1200 ft meaning around 170 meters to 400 meters at most and thats only a few holes. The average hole depth is around 800 ft or around 270 meters. I dont know where you are getting 500 to 900 meters from.


----------



## hangseng

mickqld said:


> The table of holes drilled in the last quaterly varys from 500 ft to 1200 ft meaning around 170 meters to 400 meters at most and thats only a few holes. The average hole depth is around 800 ft or around 270 meters. I dont know where you are getting 500 to 900 meters from.




And as for the lack of resource continuity that is a stab in the dark. The targetted roll front maps showing continuity of resource.

Anyway enough of your rot.

Just in hot off the press from super sleuth T20 holder Yuro: 
"PEN applied for $70 million in Govt bonds. In the notice below the nay or yay is decided on the 6th Nov US time. I see also there is a expectation by PEN to have all ( read SML) permits within 15 - 18 months. A great development here's hoping they can pull it off!"

http://www.newzgroup.com/WYLegals/5...etpub\wwwroot\wyoming\dtSearch_form.html&.pdf


----------



## GT 86

Mick

You are very correct on the Meters being Feet . . . . . . . but as the PFS/DFS allows for 500 ft and it is now about 800 ft average . . . . . .  . . estimated production costs are increasing.

I look forward to the next JORC upgrade  ( Measured & Indicated ) . . . .  . . . . It WILL be evident whether roll fronts really provide commercial resource continuity or not.

Bring on the JORC upgrade . .  . . . . . . . I hope it happens before any capital raising.


GT 86


----------



## mickqld

From the Crookcounty website.



NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING
CONCERNING THE ISSUANCE OF
CROOK COUNTY, WYOMING
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT REVENUE BONDS
(STRATA ENERGY INC. PROJECT)
PUBLIC NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that a public hearing will be held by the Crook County Board of County Commissioners on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, commencing at 10:00 a.m., or as soon thereafter as the matter may be heard, in the Commissioner’s Room of the Crook County Courthouse, Sundance, Wyoming, for the purpose of providing a reasonable opportunity for interested individuals to express their views, orally or in writing, on the issuance by Crook County, Wyoming (the “County”) of industrial development revenue bonds (the “Bonds”) and the nature of the Facility described below which will be financed through the issuance of the Bonds pursuant to the provisions of Wyoming Industrial Development Projects Act, and purchased by the State of Wyoming pursuant to Wyo. Stat. 9-4-715(a)(m).
The County has been requested by Strata Energy, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Borrower”) to issue the Bonds in an aggregate principal amount not to exceed $70,000,000 to fund a loan by the County to the Borrower for the purposes of (i) construction of well fields and a central processing facility in order to produce U308 (yellowcake), for sale to utilities within the United States and elsewhere (the “Facility”), and (ii) paying certain costs of issuance relating to the Bonds (collectively, the “Project”).
The Borrower is an emerging Uranium producer. Its Lance Project is located 24  ½ miles north of Moorcroft at Oshoto, Wyoming. The Lance Project has one of the highest identified uranium resource deposits in Wyoming and feasibility studies indicate the potential for long term mineral extraction activities on the order of 20 years or more. Within the next 15 to 18 months, the Borrower intends to achieve the proper licensure and begin construction of the Facility.
Interested members of the public are invited to attend the public hearing. Persons desiring to obtain additional information concerning the Bonds or the Project in advance of the hearing should contact the County Growth and Development Office. Information will be made available, when it is received from the Borrower, in the Growth and Development Office, Crook County Courthouse P.O. Box 848 Sundance, WY 82729 307-283-4548 and it will be posted at http://www.crookcounty.wy.gov/departments/growth_and_development/index.php
( S E A L ) /s/ Connie D. Tschetter Crook County Clerk
Publish in the Sundance Times, and Moorcroft Leader on October 18 and 25, 2012; and the Wyoming Pioneer on October 25, and November 1, 2012

$70 million about to be slapped on the table to build the mine. Permit to mine about to be granted. Source Materials Licence in the next 12 - 15 months. Producing yellowcake by 2014. Revenues from production will go into further Lance drilling and Karoo South Africa drilling and development. PEN is now morphing from the penny stock junior spec explorer into a major Uranium miner over the next few years. Exciting times ahead for this company.


----------



## flashman1207

mickqld said:


> Funding for mine construction and production will come from a debt/equity deal not capital raising by issuing more shares. Company has all but stated such in previous announcements.





Gus said as much to me at the last AGM....


----------



## mickqld

$70 MILLION INDUSTRIAL REVENUE BOND FOR LANCE PROJECTS WINS
UNANIMOUS CROOK COUNTY COMMISSION SUPPORT
Peninsula Energy Limited (PEN) is pleased to announce a significant step forward in project
financing for its Lance Projects in Wyoming, USA.
The Crook County Board of Commissioners voted unanimously on Tuesday to provide
authorization to proceed toward the issuance of the Crook County Wyoming Industrial
Development Revenue Bonds in the amount of $70 million to partially fund development of
the Lance Projects.
The Bond funding is allocated under the Industrial Development Projects Act (IDPA)
(Wyoming Statute 15-1-7), which allows cities and counties in Wyoming to issue Bonds to
promote economic growth within the state, and to create jobs for in-state residents.
The Bond program is funded up to $600 million through the state Permanent Mineral Trust
Fund at an interest rate equal to the present rate of return for the Fund. The County acts as
the issuing authority and has recommended purchase of the Bonds to the Wyoming
Business Council (WBC), which will conduct a thorough due diligence review of the
application.
Upon successful WBC review, the application will proceed to approval by the State
Attorney General, State Treasurer, and ultimately the Governor.
In requesting the County’s support, Strata was required to demonstrate that the Lance
Projects provide a clear and factual economic benefit to the County and local
communities in four key areas:
● Creating new or additional employment opportunities;
● Expanding the tax base and increasing sales, property or other tax revenues to the
County;
● Maintaining and promoting a stable, balanced and diversified economy among
agriculture, natural resource development, business, commerce and trade; and
● Promoting or developing use of agricultural, manufactured, commercial or natural
resource products within or without the state.
The $70 million in requested Bonds represents 47% of the $148.1 million required to construct
the Lance Projects Central Processing Plant, CPP expansion, Satellite Ion Exchange Plant
and initial well-field development.
In addition to the Bonds above, the Company continues to advance several
complimentary debt funding opportunities which are progressing on schedule and
according to plan.


----------



## dengo

"The spot market price of uranium is now below $41/lb U3O8, according to price publishers TradeTech and Ux Consulting.

And given continued bearish sentiment in the market, some analysts are not ruling out the possibility that the spot price could fall $40/lb before the end of the year. UxC said that the price has not been $40/lb since March 2006."





http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/ElectricPower/8889209


----------



## GT 86

I am happy for PEN holders that the IRB talk has strengthened the share price . . . . . . . . . . it is great for traders . . . . . . and I would imagine the good ones have already packed up their profits and left.

When company's need more capital via debt or equity raisings, they usually employ various techniques to help the share price rise in the preceding period, closely followed by the news that they will be offering more shares . . . .  . usually at a discount to the prevailing price.

This is not a bad thing if a company has found it's resource and had in JORC'd ( M & I ), and there is something tangible to move forward with . . . . . . . . however I hate to sound like a proverbial broken record BUT, in all the latest excitement about IRB's, a few have forgotten that the company has still yet to release a JORC ( M & I ) that meets it's own DFS/PFS resource guidelines.

These are not MY guidelines they are the company's . . . . . . . . . . . so why is it taking so long to get all that U they keep finding ( @ high grade  ) into the existing JORC ( M & I ) . . . . . . . . . . . . surely the resource takes precendence over financing at this stage of the project.

Mining is about grade and profitability . . . . . . . . . . financing won't find more U for the JORC. 

Maybe someone can enlighten us on why the company's own JORC cutoff has not yet been achieved in a Uranium province.

Facts only please . . . . . . . . Remember, even Ronald McDonald has an opinion.


GT 86


----------



## mickqld

PENINSULA RECEIVES DRAFT SOURCE MATERIALS LICENSE
Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC) has issued a draft Source and 11e.(2) Byproduct Materials License (SML) to
wholly-owned subsidiary Strata Energy Inc (Strata). This issuance marks a major milestone in
Strata’s progress toward approval of the application and issuance of a final Source Material
License for the Ross ISR Project.
The NRC’s on-schedule issuance of the draft SML demonstrates that the project is technically
sound and that the approaches to public and environmental safety outlined in the application
were robust. The issuance of the draft SML in less than two years after application submission
reflects a significantly accelerated schedule over the applications of others in the industry,
which have averaged 3 years or more in receiving draft licenses. Achieving this milestone on
schedule and ahead of industry standard is indicative of the completeness of Strata’s
application and the efficiency of the streamlined regulatory approval process.
To receive NRC approval, an application must complete three review processes: acceptance
review (completed 6/28/11); safety review, resulting in a Safety Evaluation Report (SER); and
concurrent environmental review, resulting in a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement
(SEIS).
Issuance of the draft SML follows acceptance and detailed technical review of Strata’s
responses to Requests for Additional Information (RAI) on both the safety and environmental
portions of the application. The draft SML also confirms regulatory bounding conditions upon
which the project economics have been based.
Granting the draft SML on schedule represents a significant commitment by the NRC to timely
application review. The draft SML is a key step toward finalization of the SER for the Ross
application, targeted for completion by the end of February 2013. Once the SER is finalized,
Strata and NRC Staff can focus exclusively on completing the environmental review.
Strata now have 30 days to review the draft SML and provide suggested changes as part of the
continued progression to the final SER and SEIS.
Peninsula’s Executive Chairman Mr. Gus Simpson said “The Company is very pleased to receive
the draft SML on schedule from the NRC and acknowledges the streamlined regulatory
approval process that is now in place and working well.”
Unit 17, Level 2, 100 Railway Road, Subiaco WA 6008 PO Box 8129, Subiaco East WA 6008
Phone: +61 (0)8 9380 9920 Fax: +61 (0)8 9381 5064
Peninsula Energy Limited - ABN: 67 062 409 303
The issuance of the final SML, together with the Wyoming Department of Quality (WDEQ) Permit
to Mine (PTM) and Deep Disposal Well (DDW) License, are the three key regulatory permits
required for the development and commencement of a commercial ISR mining operation at
the Ross Project.
Strata was granted the DDW license in April 2011 and the PTM from the WDEQ is expected
shortly. On receipt of the PTM the Company plans to commence construction, along with the
ordering of long lead items, whilst awaiting the final SML.


----------



## mickqld

GT 86 said:


> I am happy for PEN holders that the IRB talk has strengthened the share price . . . . . . . . . . it is great for traders . . . . . . and I would imagine the good ones have already packed up their profits and left.
> 
> When company's need more capital via debt or equity raisings, they usually employ various techniques to help the share price rise in the preceding period, closely followed by the news that they will be offering more shares . . . .  . usually at a discount to the prevailing price.
> 
> This is not a bad thing if a company has found it's resource and had in JORC'd ( M & I ), and there is something tangible to move forward with . . . . . . . . however I hate to sound like a proverbial broken record BUT, in all the latest excitement about IRB's, a few have forgotten that the company has still yet to release a JORC ( M & I ) that meets it's own DFS/PFS resource guidelines.
> 
> These are not MY guidelines they are the company's . . . . . . . . . . . so why is it taking so long to get all that U they keep finding ( @ high grade  ) into the existing JORC ( M & I ) . . . . . . . . . . . . surely the resource takes precendence over financing at this stage of the project.
> 
> Mining is about grade and profitability . . . . . . . . . . financing won't find more U for the JORC.
> 
> Maybe someone can enlighten us on why the company's own JORC cutoff has not yet been achieved in a Uranium province.
> 
> Facts only please . . . . . . . . Remember, even Ronald McDonald has an opinion.
> 
> 
> GT 86




PEN Lance resource upgrade announcement is due in December. Watch this space.


----------



## dengo

Yet another broken RSI uptrend line today...


----------



## hangseng

GT 86 said:


> I am happy for PEN holders that the IRB talk has strengthened the share price . . . . . . . . . . it is great for traders . . . . . . and I would imagine the good ones have already packed up their profits and left.
> 
> When company's need more capital via debt or equity raisings, they usually employ various techniques to help the share price rise in the preceding period, closely followed by the news that they will be offering more shares . . . .  . usually at a discount to the prevailing price.
> 
> This is not a bad thing if a company has found it's resource and had in JORC'd ( M & I ), and there is something tangible to move forward with . . . . . . . . however I hate to sound like a proverbial broken record BUT, in all the latest excitement about IRB's, a few have forgotten that the company has still yet to release a JORC ( M & I ) that meets it's own DFS/PFS resource guidelines.
> 
> These are not MY guidelines they are the company's . . . . . . . . . . . so why is it taking so long to get all that U they keep finding ( @ high grade  ) into the existing JORC ( M & I ) . . . . . . . . . . . . surely the resource takes precendence over financing at this stage of the project.
> 
> Mining is about grade and profitability . . . . . . . . . . financing won't find more U for the JORC.
> 
> Maybe someone can enlighten us on why the company's own JORC cutoff has not yet been achieved in a Uranium province.
> 
> Facts only please . . . . . . . . Remember, even Ronald McDonald has an opinion.
> 
> 
> GT 86






GT 86 said:


> It has come to my attention that a poster from afar called fishfoot or similar, is espousing an opinion that BLR won't be able to raise any funds to further its key project at Hansen in Colorado.
> 
> All I can say, is that at the AGM George Glasier will be ratified
> 25 000 000 BLR shares at a perceived face value of 2 cents for back loading his Ablation Technologies into BLR.
> 
> This company in my opinion, is one deal away from starting a journey to become a powerhouse in the Uranium sector within the USA.
> 
> Would you prefer a company that HAS a great resource, that needs funding . . . . . . . or one that has STILL to find that resource and needs funding ??????
> 
> GT 86







Here is a fact for you that you should go and comment on your beloved ex market darling BLR.

No comment on the BLR thread on the capital raising that sent the BLR sp plunging yesterday?

The market has spoken on this once traders market darling, falling from over $0.30 to now be a sub $0.01 totally out of favour dog ramped on little more than hot air....but the balloon has finally burst.

PEN on the other hand, canned by many BLR posters here and elsewhere, now successfully advancing toward full funding and permitting as I always believed it would. 

BLR has a lot of catching up to do with sentiment now at an all time low.

Yes what is the better stock? The one with a resource going nowhere, or the one with a smaller but steadily  increasing resource advancing into funding and permitting over the next year?

Ramp all you like buc, The market has spoken...that is a fact and the BLR of sub 1c is very real. Not even the forum hot air can hold it up anymore.


----------



## dengo

hangseng said:


> Yes what is the better stock? The one with a resource going nowhere, or the one with a smaller but steadily  increasing resource advancing into funding and permitting over the next year?




Neither, leave it in the ground...or have you conveniently forgotten Fukushima?

"If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain, this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire that could wipe out most of the northern hemisphere; certainly it would be a massive civilization-breaking event some are suggesting.
...we are at risk for something in the order of the 85 times the radiation of Chernobyl and I hear it could be much worse than that because of the plutonium factor."

http://www.opednews.com/populum/linkframe.php?linkid=158548


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> Neither, leave it in the ground...or have you conveniently forgotten Fukushima?
> 
> "If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain, this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire that could wipe out most of the northern hemisphere; certainly it would be a massive civilization-breaking event some are suggesting.
> ...we are at risk for something in the order of the 85 times the radiation of Chernobyl and I hear it could be much worse than that because of the plutonium factor."
> 
> http://www.opednews.com/populum/linkframe.php?linkid=158548




The Intellihub.com , and I thought the National Enquirer was the biggest load of made up garbage ever published. This site makes the Enquirer look like a bunch of Pulitzer prize winning journalists.


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Yet another broken RSI uptrend line today...




Four days on and price follows the RSI below it's uptrend line.

Sell signal confirmed by the bearish MACD crossover.

Short term bearish rectangle measured move target = 3.5c

Gap @ 3.7c


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> PEN is now morphing from the penny stock junior spec explorer into a major Uranium miner over the next few years. Exciting times ahead for this company.




Here's a couple of "major Uranium miner" charts. Outstanding...
The "Exciting times" for uranium investors were six years ago!

The "Exciting times" for the rest of us include Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima...


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> Here's a couple of "major Uranium miner" charts. Outstanding...
> The "Exciting times" for uranium investors were six years ago!
> 
> The "Exciting times" for the rest of us include Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima...
> 
> View attachment 49699




Another box ticked. This company will be mining in 12-18 months despite the protests of the green scaremongers.

22 November 2012
Companies Announcement Of f ice
Via Elect ronic Lodgement
PENINSULA RECEIVES PERMIT TO MINE
Peninsula Energy Limited (PEN) is pleased to announce that the Wyoming Department of
Environmental Quality (WDEQ) has granted a Permit to Mine (PTM) to wholly-owned subsidiary
Strata Energy Inc (Strata) for the Ross Production Unit. The completion of this licensing action
concludes a major milestone in advancing the Lance Projects towards production.
The WDEQ notified Strata in August 2012 that the application complied with all WDEQ
requirements and was deemed complete, thereby initiating the final public review process for
the PTM.
The PTM is the second of three licenses required for advancement of the Lance Projects. The
first license was the Deep Disposal Well (DDW) license granted in April 2011. The final license
required before commencement of production is the Combined Source and 11e.(2)
Byproduct Material License (SML) issued by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Strata
received a draft SML for the Ross Production Unit in early November 2012, a month ahead of
projections.
Having concluded the PTM licensing process, Strata may now focus its entire permitting efforts
on completing the SML application process.
Within the coming weeks, Strata will commence allowable construction (pre the SML license)
at the Lance Projects, including the development of deep disposal wells, monitoring wells and
CPP site and civil works.
Peninsula Executive Chairman Mr. Gus Simpson stated “With the issuance of the WDEQ Permit
to Mine, the Lance Projects continue to gain momentum toward production. Yet again, the
project team and regulatory authorities have achieved a significant project milestone on time
and without issue.”


----------



## notting

That's all terrific but with PDN, a urnanium miner in production having come down from $10.80 to .80c and ERA a uranium miner in production and sitting on one of the biggest deposits yet discovered, having come down from $18 to $1.20.  Uranium, on the back of global crisis and also being out of favour; getting a mine up in 12 to 18 months’ time with probable blowouts is hardly something to get excited about.
PDN also commented a couple of months ago that uranium is not expected to turn around for 10 years.:22_yikes:
God knows why you'd wanna be in this!


----------



## dengo

hangseng said:


> ...out of favour dog ramped on little more than hot air....but the balloon has finally burst.
> PEN on the other hand, canned by many BLR posters here and elsewhere, now successfully advancing toward full funding and permitting as I always believed it would.
> BLR has a lot of catching up to do with sentiment now at an all time low.
> Yes what is the better stock? The one with a resource going nowhere, or the one with a smaller but steadily  increasing resource advancing into funding and permitting over the next year?




After such a magnificent announcement from PEN, here are the results of today's trading...

PEN - Flat 

BLR - Up 29% 

"out of favour dog ramped on little more than hot air" :


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Four days on and price follows the RSI below it's uptrend line.
> Sell signal confirmed by the bearish MACD crossover.
> Short term bearish rectangle measured move target = 3.5c
> Gap @ 3.7c




It appears a bearish head & shoulders reversal is *imminent*

A close below 4.0 will be confirmed by a bearish drop below 50 for the RSI

The head & shoulders measured move will target recent support @ 2.5c


----------



## tech/a

> A close below 4.0 will be confirmed by a bearish drop below 50 for the RSI




A close below 4 will mean the lagging indicator RSI will fall below the 50 line.
Closes are wider than rises.
It confirms nothing.
Are you sure its an imminent head and shoulders.
I could swear its a flying pig!!

The only thing thats confirming anything is supply.
If it dries up it will rise.
Continues it will fall.
Support at 4c


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> A close below 4 will mean the lagging indicator RSI will fall below the 50 line.
> Closes are wider than rises.
> It confirms nothing.
> Are you sure its an imminent head and shoulders.
> I could swear its a flying pig!!
> 
> The only thing thats confirming anything is supply.
> If it dries up it will rise.
> Continues it will fall.
> Support at 4c




No lag whatsoever. Check the recent buy signal confirmed by the RSI on the same day when it crossed above 50

Support @ 4c on my charts too


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> "...Even Japan is looking to acquire uranium miners."




While 35% of Fukushima's children have acquired thyroid growths 20 millimeters or smaller...

Madness!

http://www.ww4report.com/node/11715


----------



## dengo

hangseng said:


> BLR has a lot of catching up to do with sentiment now at an all time low.
> 
> Yes what is the better stock?




Last 10 days comparison chart...


----------



## tech/a

dengo said:


> No lag whatsoever. Check the recent buy signal confirmed by the RSI on the same day when it crossed above 50
> 
> Support @ 4c on my charts too
> 
> View attachment 49726




Hang on your that other guy that has no idea about T/A.
Understand-- carry on your amusing!


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> The only thing thats confirming anything is supply.
> If it dries up it will rise.
> Continues it will fall.
> Support at 4c




I've finally seen the light!
Correct me if I'm wrong, this is life-changing.

If there are more buyers than sellers the price will rise.
If there are more sellers than buyers the price will fall.

I'm off to get this tattooed on my forehead...


----------



## tech/a

dengo said:


> I've finally seen the light!
> Correct me if I'm wrong, this is life-changing.
> 
> If there are more buyers than sellers the price will rise.
> If there are more sellers than buyers the price will fall.
> 
> I'm off to get this tattooed on my forehead...




Price will only rise if sellers withdraw from selling.
Volume has little to do with it.

You must have a big forehead !


----------



## Sean K

tech/a said:


> Price will only rise if sellers withdraw from selling.
> Volume has little to do with it.



Hm. 

Greater bid volume = price fall. Greater ask volume = price rise. 

Volume in inextricably linked to buying and selling and thus price movement.


----------



## tech/a

kennas said:


> Hm.
> 
> Greater bid volume = price fall. Greater ask volume = price rise.
> 
> Volume in inextricably linked to buying and selling and thus price movement.




Greater bid or ask volume in market depth has little to do with price movement.
Mind you most watch it like a hawk thinking it has EVERYTHING to do with it.
that's why you see all sorts of ridiculous bids placed and pulled.

Price moves at the face often not seen in depth.
Flow can and does appear from each side in spite of depth.
Sellers will soon pull their asks when they see a run to the positive.
As will buyers pull their bids if selling arrives.

If you really think hard about it price has only* ONE* driver---*SUPPLY*.

Eg light buying---even lighter selling---Price* RISES.*


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> If you really think hard about it price has only* ONE* driver---*SUPPLY*.




Ever heard of *DEMAND*?


----------



## tech/a

dengo said:


> Ever heard of *DEMAND*?




Yep gets pulled up by *SUPPLY* every time.


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> Yep gets pulled up by *SUPPLY* every time.




Not if there's a Mexican stand-off...


----------



## dengo

Shorter term hourly chart shows a bearish head and shoulders continuation pattern.

If 4.1c support breaks then measured move target = 3.2c


----------



## tech/a

dengo said:


> Shorter term hourly chart shows a bearish head and shoulders continuation pattern.
> 
> If 4.1c support breaks then measured move target = 3.2c
> 
> View attachment 49768




You'll make a pattern out of tea leaves!!


----------



## jancha

If your saying Dengo can make a pattern out of tea leaves i take it as usual your taking the #%#% out of him. So whats your take on the chart or hasn't the leaves formed a pattern for you yet?


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> You'll make a pattern out of tea leaves!!




I see you're leaving us - a sad day for all...
As a parting gift I will _supply_ my vision of PEN's weekly chart.
I propose that a bearish descending triangle reversal pattern is forming -


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> 23rd-November-2012 09:23 PM
> No lag whatsoever. Check the recent buy signal confirmed by the RSI on the same day when it crossed above 50. Support @ 4c on my charts too
> 
> View attachment 49726




RSI confirmation of SP support failure by falling through 50 on the same day SP returns to the 3s, (no lag).
Expecting a gap closing bounce off the lower Bollinger band then a test of the old support level @ 4.0c 
Head & shoulders measured move target = 2.5c


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> Yep gets pulled up by *SUPPLY* every time.




lol

For a larf check the zimmer frame mob on hc.

Tea leaves have nothing on it.

All down I am afraid. It is as dead as a dry dingo's donger.

gg


----------



## alonso

Don't ignore the LT effect of Japan turning the reactors back on and China building 60 new ones, not to mention India likely to go down same path.


----------



## Boggo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> All down I am afraid. It is as dead as a dry dingo's donger.
> 
> gg




I reckon this could be in for a bit of a run gg, how does up around 7c grab you


----------



## jancha

Boggo said:


> I reckon this could be in for a bit of a run gg, how does up around 7c grab you




How about putting your chart where your mouth is?


----------



## Boggo

jancha said:


> How about putting your chart where your mouth is?




OK, and in a PEN too


----------



## tech/a

Fair go BOGGO

We can all learn so much from Jancha's
flitting around from RED to MAD to RED to PLU.


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Fair go BOGGO
> 
> We can all learn so much from Jancha's
> flitting around from RED to MAD to RED to PLU.




Yes, he's good at dangling a bait though


----------



## jancha

tech/a said:


> Fair go BOGGO
> 
> We can all learn so much from Jancha's
> flitting around from RED to MAD to RED to PLU.




I see your still flittering around too Tech.
 Thought you were only giving input on important information.
Oh soo sorry.. my bad that probably makes more sense than your tea readings.

PLU? No such ASX code

So where's the chart boys?


----------



## Miner

jancha said:


> I see your still flittering around too Tech.
> Thought you were only giving input on important information.
> Oh soo sorry.. my bad that probably makes more sense than your tea readings.
> 
> PLU? No such ASX code
> 
> So where's the chart boys?




Jancha

Have you tried blocking a sender ? I did.
That way some of the unwanted blogs and bloggers posts automatically filtered.
Sorry Joe -for posting non PEN related posts.


----------



## jancha

Miner said:


> Jancha
> 
> Have you tried blocking a sender ? I did.
> That way some of the unwanted blogs and bloggers posts automatically filtered.
> Sorry Joe -for posting non PEN related posts.




Yes Miner thanks for that but to me it's a bit like water off a ducks back. and on rare occasions something useful comes out of it.


----------



## mickqld

I'm still waiting for Chalea's 1.5c chart prediction so I can top up.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

mickqld said:


> I'm still waiting for Chalea's 1.5c chart prediction so I can top up.




The Zimmer Frame Mob on hc are waiting for an announcement from someone called "Gus" and are sending each other Christmas Cards. Presently at 4.1 c , so my guess is you will not have a long wait for 1.5c.

gg


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> RSI confirmation of SP support failure by falling through 50 on the same day SP returns to the 3s, (no lag).
> Expecting a gap closing bounce off the lower Bollinger band then a test of the old support level @ 4.0c
> Head & shoulders measured move target = 2.5c
> View attachment 49793




Bear flag forming on the daily chart.
Support break will be confirmed by support/centerline break on the RSI
Measured move target = 2.5c


----------



## hangseng

dengo said:


> Bear flag forming on the daily chart.
> Support break will be confirmed by support/centerline break on the RSI
> Measured move target = 2.5c
> 
> View attachment 50060




Considering the shorting activity arising from the PALA/Citi stock lending agreement clearly isn't over. Your target may just eventuate providing an outstanding buying opportunity.

Another fruitloop elsewhere with his self termed "TSI" is calling 1.9c around March so this will be interesting.

I am cashed up and ready.


----------



## notting

hangseng said:


> I am cashed up and ready.



I thought you already owned it?


----------



## dengo

notting said:


> I thought you already owned it?




You can't have too much of a good thing...

Ask the Yanks...

"Engineers warn: Two US nuclear plants may cause new Fukushima"

http://rt.com/usa/news/two-nuclear-nrc-facilities-604/


----------



## tech/a

notting said:


> I thought you already owned it?




Millions of them
Converted options---the lot.

Now had he sold all his holdings at 12c as we suggested 
And he WAS cashed up----then the guys a genius
But with millions of shares held at 3.6 average ( according to Himself )
He's gone from massive profit to a whacking loss.
I'm afraid his calls have absolutely no credibility.--- to me.


----------



## jancha

tech/a said:


> Millions of them
> Converted options---the lot.
> 
> Now had he sold all his holdings at 12c as we suggested
> And he WAS cashed up----then the guys a genius
> But with millions of shares held at 3.6 average ( according to Himself )
> He's gone from massive profit to a whacking loss.
> I'm afraid his calls have absolutely no credibility.--- to me.




Tech I dont know why Hangseng bothers posting his charts and thoughts on this thread he should save time and just ask your thoughts on where PEN will go. After all you are the expert T/A guru.


----------



## tech/a

jancha said:


> Tech I dont know why Hangseng bothers posting his charts and thoughts on this thread he should save time and just ask your thoughts on where PEN will go. After all you are the expert T/A guru.




Good point
Had he taken my analysis and acted upon it he'd be
Much wealthier.
He had plenty of opportunity.

Infact it would be $100,000 per million stock held.
And my analysis is and was FREE!

Merry Xmas!


----------



## jancha

tech/a said:


> Good point
> Had he taken my analysis and acted upon it he'd be
> Much wealthier.
> He had plenty of opportunity.
> 
> Infact it would be $100,000 per million stock held.
> And my analysis is and was FREE!
> 
> Merry Xmas!




Love that word FREE.
Merry Xmas to you to.


----------



## Country Lad

tech/a said:


> I'm afraid his calls have absolutely no credibility.--- to me.




OMG, hangseng is still at it?  I haven't visited this thread for 18 months when a few of us described it as a dog and hangseng got upset. Looking at the prices then and now, it appears to be even more of a dog now.  

Opportunity costs come to mind.  Just look at all those other shares which have risen substantially in those 18 months.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## hangseng

Have your fun people, the last laugh will be mine of that I have no doubt. 

Take it or leave it, PEN *IS* being shorted and opportunity will come of it. The fundamentals will then take care of themselves, that by the way have improved dramatically during this period of shorting activity that began some time ago.

"opportunity cost" absolutely, just as well I have other irons in the fire and decided some time ago to play with PEN as the shorters have their way.

But as you were and believe what you will, your cheap shots are like water off a ducks back to me. If any of you could read or comprehend you would see that previous chart/analysis is not mine, I merely replied to that post.


----------



## Country Lad

hangseng said:


> Take it or leave it, PEN *IS* being shorted




Where is the evidence of that please, and how many have been short sold?.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## hangseng

Country Lad said:


> Where is the evidence of that please, and how many have been short sold?.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad





Learn about stock lending agreements and what happens to the stock thereafter, sole purpose is to short stock and the lender receives a fee for "loaning" the shares. Also learn of the LEGAL non reporting requirements of such agreements, it isn't reportable "ASX SHORTSELL STOCK". Also follow the live broker controlled algorithm trades on PEN each time it falls.

Add in do your own research, you wouldn't have to look far and ask too many questions of those that do know.


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> Learn about stock lending agreements and what happens to the stock thereafter, sole purpose is to short stock and the lender receives a fee for "loaning" the shares. Also learn of the LEGAL non reporting requirements of such agreements, it isn't reportable "ASX SHORTSELL STOCK". Also follow the live broker controlled algorithm trades on PEN each time it falls.
> 
> Add in do your own research, you wouldn't have to look far and ask too many questions of those that do know.




Ive known C/L for many years

There is very little "Country Lad" needs to learn.
Particularly from someone who watches a "reputed"
6 figure profit fall to a loss.

It's always something or someone else's fault 
Eh Hangseng


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> Learn about stock lending agreements and what happens to the stock thereafter, sole purpose is to short stock and the lender receives a fee for "loaning" the shares. *Also learn of the LEGAL non reporting requirements of such agreements*




I'd like to see a link


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> *Add in do your own research*, you wouldn't have to look far and ask too many questions of those that do know.




Here is mine, PEN is missing on the 24th, obviously an error !
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


----------



## Stormtrooper

Boggo said:


> Here is mine, PEN is missing on the 24th, obviously an error !
> http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt





The report is correct. There were no REPORTABLE shares shorted that day.

The arrangement that hangseng is talking about is an agreement between Pala & Citi.

Pala still own the shares, but have lent these shares to Citi (also the nominee holder) for a fee. A bit like renting out your house so that you receive a rental income. You still own the asset, but another party has the right to use your asset as they see fit.  

Citi now can do what they want with the shares (in this case short sell) & buy back, returning the share holding at some point to its rightful owner (Pala). 

This type of shorting will NOT appear in the ASX records as PALA the owner have not shorted, they have only only lent the shares.

It's an area condoned (via lack of control by ASX).

At some point Citi will need to hand back all shares to Pala & this is what hangseng is talking about that they are not yet finished & hence why el capo is so confident of lower prices

Watching with interest as Blackrock now have a position at 3.6c (when you include option position). It will be 'interesting' to see if/how they work together to each others benefit, as shorting & lowering the price will hurt Blackrocks book position (initially) if it does run as low as elcapo claims.


----------



## hangseng

Stormtrooper said:


> The report is correct. There were no REPORTABLE shares shorted that day.
> 
> The arrangement that hangseng is talking about is an agreement between Pala & Citi.
> 
> Pala still own the shares, but have lent these shares to Citi (also the nominee holder) for a fee. A bit like renting out your house so that you receive a rental income. You still own the asset, but another party has the right to use your asset as they see fit.
> 
> Citi now can do what they want with the shares (in this case short sell) & buy back, returning the share holding at some point to its rightful owner (Pala).
> 
> This type of shorting will NOT appear in the ASX records as PALA the owner have not shorted, they have only only lent the shares.
> 
> It's an area condoned (via lack of control by ASX).
> 
> At some point Citi will need to hand back all shares to Pala & this is what hangseng is talking about that they are not yet finished & hence why el capo is so confident of lower prices
> 
> Watching with interest as Blackrock now have a position at 3.6c (when you include option position). It will be 'interesting' to see if/how they work together to each others benefit, as shorting & lowering the price will hurt Blackrocks book position (initially) if it does run as low as elcapo claims.





Finally someone who actually knows what they are talking about.

I will also add Citi has the right then to further "loan" stock to others such as CFD providers and brokers in general, who also sell the stock down.

Those that aren't aware of this type of arrangement only need to look to ASIC rulings on (non) disclosure regarding stock lending agreements, or more correctly "Securities Lending Agreements". This has *nothing at all to do with "Reportable ASX Shortsell Stock", *of which is transparent. Stock lending agreements require no such disclosure.

Those that care to can look at the original substantial holder agreement after PALA was issued shares. Noting  it is reported not by PALA but a law firm on behalf of PALA and then the shares show up as Citi in the top 20 not PALA.

No surprise 4.1c and now 4c has gone and soon 3.9 will be steadily sold into etc until the short selling is over.

As for Blackrock let's see if the shares remain in their name or if they enter into a similar arrangement.

For newbies, non believers and ostriches with their heads firmly stuck in the sand:

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/AD08+-+23+?openDocument


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> Finally someone who actually knows what they are talking about.
> 
> I will also add Citi has the right then to further "loan" stock to others such as CFD providers and brokers in general, who also sell the stock down.
> 
> Those that aren't aware of this type of arrangement only need to look to ASIC rulings on (non) disclosure regarding stock lending agreements, or more correctly "Securities Lending Agreements". This has *nothing at all to do with "Reportable ASX Shortsell Stock", *of which is transparent. Stock lending agreements require no such disclosure.




This concept would have to scare the bejaysus out of all the people who base their investment decisions on fundamental analysis.
You are saying that you could have any stock that is perhaps fundamentally sound and it could actually be manipulated by short sellers and you wouldn't know it was happening as there is no disclosure to the ASX !


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> Finally someone who actually knows what they are talking about.
> 
> I will also add Citi has the right then to further "loan" stock to others such as CFD providers and brokers in general, who also sell the stock down.
> 
> Those that aren't aware of this type of arrangement only need to look to ASIC rulings on (non) disclosure regarding stock lending agreements, or more correctly "Securities Lending Agreements". This has *nothing at all to do with "Reportable ASX Shortsell Stock", *of which is transparent. Stock lending agreements require no such disclosure.
> 
> Those that care to can look at the original substantial holder agreement after PALA was issued shares. Noting  it is reported not by PALA but a law firm on behalf of PALA and then the shares show up as Citi in the top 20 not PALA.
> 
> No surprise 4.1c and now 4c has gone and soon 3.9 will be steadily sold into etc until the short selling is over.
> 
> As for Blackrock let's see if the shares remain in their name or if they enter into a similar arrangement.
> 
> For newbies, non believers and ostriches with their heads firmly stuck in the sand:
> 
> http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/AD08+-+23+?openDocument




I don't think thats how it works.

That link This simply allows the owners (lenders) to sell stock that they hold legal title to, but not beneficial title, because it has been loaned out; caveat being they can settle and recall.

Nothing in relation to reporting. RG 196: Short selling - Specifically RG 196.56 deals with that.


> Under a typical securities lending agreement, the lender has the right to
> recall securities loaned under the agreement. Ordinarily an owner who
> wishes to sell the securities placed in a securities lending program first must
> wait until those securities are delivered back to the owner.




Because this is technically a long sell, and treating it as a short sell would skew daily shorts reporting incorrectly.

Since citi is selling and pala is the owner, there is still a requirement to disclose. Just like any regular securities lending arrangement.


----------



## hangseng

skyQuake said:


> I don't think thats how it works.
> 
> 
> Since citi is selling and pala is the owner, there is still a requirement to disclose. Just like any regular securities lending arrangement.




There is no requirement to disclose as Pala are not actually selling the stock, but they do remain the legal owner. If they sold/disposed of shares under their own right then they must disclose. However Pala hasn't sold any holdings, they merely "loaned" the stock. Citi can then further "loan" the stock to others via securities lending agreements and I am certain they have.

PEN now selling into 3.9 on BOT selling as I previously stated would occur, believe what you will this is happening. When it is over PEN will make exceptional buying. Probably is now but an even better entry is likely to occur courtesy of this lending agreement.

One day all the stock will go back to Pala. In the meantime the BOT is having a field day and short term entry/exit points are provided along the way for anyone that cares to do so. After the rise to 7.4 I stated to my group offline PEN would be sold off, it was and I stated the same on and offline when it rose again to 5.0, both times on the back of very positive announcements. No more announcements and the selling continues to where who knows but I believe sub 3.0c is on the cards and maybe even el capo's sub 2.0c, it is anyones guess but the BOT.

As long as that stock lending arrangement is in place I expect this pattern to continue.


----------



## reichman

With a Lance JORC Update and the initial Karoo JORC expected any day now (as per the company telling shareholders at the recent AGM) , to believe sub 3c and even possibly sub 2cents is still on the cards is an interesting thought.

Unless those two imminent announcements are both pretty average in content (not impossible, but difficult to imagine given Blackrock recently paying to get on board), wouldn't the wider market (and Blackrock for that matter) make it hard for the share to be sold down to such levels?

Or, have these imminent announcements been delayed?


----------



## dengo

reichman said:


> ...to believe sub 3c and even possibly sub 2cents is still on the cards is an interesting thought.




Price uptrend break confirmed by the non lagging RSI uptrend break.
RSI back into negative territory below 50


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

reichman said:


> With a Lance JORC Update and the initial Karoo JORC expected any day now (as per the company telling shareholders at the recent AGM) , to believe sub 3c and even possibly sub 2cents is still on the cards is an interesting thought.
> 
> Unless those two imminent announcements are both pretty average in content (not impossible, but difficult to imagine given Blackrock recently paying to get on board), wouldn't the wider market (and Blackrock for that matter) make it hard for the share to be sold down to such levels?
> 
> Or, have these imminent announcements been delayed?




It is of great fascination to me that investors like you still believe in fundamentals with all their incongruities, lies, half truths and midget commentators, not exclusive necessarily of the boards of the companies you follow.

Not to say this applies to PEN.

To go through some of your points. 

1. With a Lance JORC Update expected any day now.
2. With the initial Karoo JORC expected any day now.
3. As per the company telling shareholders at the recent AGM
4. Unless those two imminent announcements are both pretty average in content 
5. Blackrock recently paying to get on board.
6. Blackrock for that matter make it hard for the share to be sold down to such levels?

It displays a suspension of disbelief on your part, though I know not your cognitive skills, with many ifs and buts and imponderables.

I know you not, although the phrase

"There is one born every minute." may possibly apply to you, given the above statements.

If you want to read tea-leaves, follow tech/a on ASF for the sad sack of a stock that PEN is.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

reichman said:


> With a Lance JORC Update and the initial Karoo JORC expected any day now (as per the company telling shareholders at the recent AGM) , to believe sub 3c and even possibly sub 2cents is still on the cards is an interesting thought.
> 
> Unless those two imminent announcements are both pretty average in content (not impossible, but difficult to imagine given Blackrock recently paying to get on board), wouldn't the wider market (and Blackrock for that matter) make it hard for the share to be sold down to such levels?
> 
> Or, have these imminent announcements been delayed?




Hi reichman, I hope you are well

Unfortunately your post sounds very "Hot Copperish"

I have been playing with charts to anticipate the sub 2 cent low.

At this point I currently have a couple of probabilities...(roughly April but) reasoning for  March 2013 and mid year 2013.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dengo said:


> Price uptrend break confirmed by the non lagging RSI uptrend break.
> RSI back into negative territory below 50
> 
> View attachment 50134




dengo mate, never show a chart on ASF, without volume, and never use an indicator as a buy signal. It may fool the pensioners on HC, but you will encounter problems on ASF.

gg


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> dengo mate, never show a chart on ASF, without volume, and never use an indicator as a buy signal. It may fool the pensioners on HC, but you will encounter problems on ASF.
> 
> gg




Hi Garpal Gumnut

Volume is meaningless in a downtrend & today was a sell signal, (RSI confirming price action).

IMO, Regards


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> dengo mate, never show a chart on ASF, without volume, and never use an indicator as a buy signal. It may fool the pensioners on HC, but you will encounter problems on ASF.
> 
> gg




Dont you go stressing Garpal

I placed a chart of the day of the high of 5.5 cents on HC with Parabolic Rise, Fib Fan trendline touch and  RSI about to break.

Next day dengo provided 10 year chart of RSI breaking trendlines (nice work dengo, my compliments)


----------



## Joules MM1

corn:

......


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> There is no requirement to disclose as Pala are not actually selling the stock, but they do remain the legal owner. If they sold/disposed of shares under their own right then they must disclose. However Pala hasn't sold any holdings, they merely "loaned" the stock. Citi can then further "loan" the stock to others via securities lending agreements and I am certain they have.




Go read RG 196.5x

Pala selling does not need to disclose, because they are the real/legal owners and can recall citi's stock at any time. Citi or any other entity that 'borrowed' stock will need to disclose. However since it is claimed citi is selling they will need to disclose.

Specifically RG 196.87


> RG 196.87 A short sale *transaction* must be reported if:
> (a) a ‘seller’ makes a sale of section 1020B products to a buyer on a
> licensed market in Australia; and
> *(b) before the time of sale, the seller had entered into or gained the benefit
> of a securities lending arrangement; and*
> (c) at the time of the sale the seller intends that the securities lending
> arrangement will ensure that some or all of the section 1020B products
> can be vested in the buyer (s1020AB(1)).




Similar story for short *position* reporting. The only exception is where total value is less than $100k or less than 0.01% of Market cap.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dengo said:


> Hi Garpal Gumnut
> 
> Volume is meaningless in a downtrend & today was a sell signal, (RSI confirming price action).
> 
> IMO, Regards




You break me up.

You run a Lenards.

YOu on Monday have 200 people buying chooks.

On Tuesday 2000 people queue up to buy same chooks.

What price on Tuesday?

Stick to Hotcopper mate.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> You break me up.
> 
> You run a Lenards.
> 
> YOu on Monday have 200 people buying chooks.
> 
> On Tuesday 2000 people queue up to buy same chooks.
> 
> What price on Tuesday?
> 
> Stick to Hotcopper mate.
> 
> gg




Enjoy your humour Garpul:bananasmi

Hey mate.......I am anticipating your traditional "PEN is a dawg" post.

Any time now


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Enjoy your humour Garpul:bananasmi
> 
> Hey mate.......I am anticipating your traditional "PEN is a dawg" post.
> 
> Any time now




Thanks K68.

I do not think PEN is a dawg, atm. It has always been a good trading stock, but I would not hold it longterm for quids.

Some would say that the PEN board are "challenged", and more suited to a game of monopoly than running a listed ASX company.

I do not necessarily agree with this statement. 

I sometimes look at HC for guidance, pensioners say up, I sell, pensioners say down I buy.

So far from my excel sheet over the past 2 years I'm $16454.43 up.

It's a good stock, for me, god help blokes like hangseng who accumulate, if he has.

gg


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> You break me up.
> 
> You run a Lenards.
> 
> YOu on Monday have 200 people buying chooks.
> 
> On Tuesday 2000 people queue up to buy same chooks.
> 
> What price on Tuesday?
> 
> Stick to Hotcopper mate.
> 
> gg




So it was you doing all the buying today...time for a refresher

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=742949#post742949


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dengo said:


> So it was you doing all the buying today...time for a refresher
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=742949#post742949




Put up a proper chart or shutup.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks K68.
> 
> I do not think PEN is a dawg, atm. It has always been a good trading stock, but I would not hold it longterm for quids.
> 
> 
> It's a good stock, for me, god help blokes like hangseng who accumulate, if he has.
> 
> gg





I am on the impression you have seen my 2 charts on HC.

I am on the firm belief PEN shall fall below 2 cents next year.

Do you personally feel sub 2 cents?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> I am on the impression you have seen my 2 charts on HC.
> 
> I am on the firm belief PEN shall fall below 2 cents next year.
> 
> Do you personally feel sub 2 cents?




Depends, mate, depends.

Lots can happen in a week.

What do the pensioners on HC think?

I rarely go there.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Depends, mate, depends.
> 
> Lots can happen in a week.
> 
> What do the pensioners on HC think?
> 
> I rarely go there.
> 
> gg




Ha ha ha ha ha....I struggle to view the comments on HC in recent times.
Musashi has gone quiet. Pewal is ramping multibagger from now based on David W.
The masses are stoked.

I feel a descending triangle formed after 5.5.
Sign of distribution.
Dropped to 3.5 soon after being Fib level......Came back up on lower volume...(seems like a repeat of 7.5 high earlier in year, cycle continues).

Have been reading up on Gann recently......Thoughts on PEN I had already felt......Good to know the smartest feel charts are mathematically in synch with time


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Put up a proper chart or shutup.
> 
> gg




Pearls before swine...
You won't get better than that anywhere


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

.065 is a remote possibility on the weekly on Elliot.







I'll check the pensioners on HC on Monday. If they are pessimistic, I may buy.

It looks like a nice ABC.

gg


----------



## Country Lad

hangseng said:


> Learn about stock lending agreements and what happens to the stock thereafter, sole purpose is to short stock and the lender receives a fee for "loaning" the shares. Also learn of the LEGAL non reporting requirements of such agreements, it isn't reportable "ASX SHORTSELL STOCK". Also follow the live broker controlled algorithm trades on PEN each time it falls.
> 
> Add in do your own research, you wouldn't have to look far and ask too many questions of those that do know.




I do not need a lecture from someone consistently promoting (and no doubt losing money) on a dog of a stock when most experienced investors/traders are both amused and bemused.

You consistently state what could or may happen, who could be or may be short selling but you refuse to answer the question:  



Country Lad said:


> Where is the evidence of that please, and how many have been short sold?.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




You have made emphatic statements, I am simply asking for the evidence of those assertions.


----------



## tech/a

Karlos68 said:


> Ha ha ha ha ha....I struggle to view the comments on HC in recent times.
> Musashi has gone quiet. Pewal is ramping multibagger from now based on David W.
> The masses are stoked.
> 
> I feel a descending triangle formed after 5.5.
> Sign of distribution.
> Dropped to 3.5 soon after being Fib level......Came back up on lower volume...(seems like a repeat of 7.5 high earlier in year, cycle continues).
> 
> Have been reading up on Gann recently......Thoughts on PEN I had already felt......Good to know the smartest feel charts are mathematically in synch with time




Drivel
Hot Copper 
And Gann all in the same sentence.

There is some absolutely shocking stuff passed as technical
Analysis on these boards.
Yours is some of the worst.

Yeh yeh you can check mine out back when I was trying to save Hangseng 
$250,000

Anyway carry on with the drivel.


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> .065 is a remote possibility on the weekly on Elliot.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'll check the pensioners on HC on Monday. If they are pessimistic, I may buy.
> 
> It looks like a nice ABC.
> 
> gg




"remote possibility"..........I do not wish to be sarcastic Garpal but for flippin hecks sake.....I dont think you have viewed my Fibonacci Fan chart......065 cents is fantasy........Rock on sub 2 cents


----------



## reichman

Tech - is GG's 'remote possibility of .065 on the weekly on Elliot' comment also "drivel", or is that something to which you concur?


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> Drivel
> Hot Copper
> And Gann all in the same sentence.
> 
> There is some absolutely shocking stuff passed as technical
> Analysis on these boards.
> Yours is some of the worst.
> 
> Yeh yeh you can check mine out back when I was trying to save Hangseng
> $250,000
> 
> Anyway carry on with the drivel.




Whatever.....El Capo nailed 7.5 cents earlier in year and I nailed mid 5 cents recently (which is recorded on HC)......Care to place a chart or do you wish to continue knocking others and claiming your prowess?


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> .065 is a remote possibility on the weekly on Elliot.
> It looks like a nice ABC.




Eliot Ness? Your weekly chart doesn't even show today's trading...

More likely DÃ©jÃ  vu than your wishful thinking!


----------



## tech/a

reichman said:


> Tech - is GG's 'remote possibility of .065 on the weekly on Elliot' comment also "drivel", or is that something to which you concur?




Yeh his analysis is about as good as his Elliott count shown on his chart.


----------



## tech/a

Karlos68 said:


> Whatever.....El Capo nailed 7.5 cents earlier in year and I nailed mid 5 cents recently (which is recorded on HC)......Care to place a chart or do you wish to continue knocking others and claiming your prowess?




Carry on
I'll just knock the drivel.


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> Carry on
> I'll just knock the drivel.




Cheers for your detailed correction as to your thoughts on my mistakes.confused

I do not recall anyone calling 5.5 cent high on ASF with chart provided.(Check HC several weeks ago and I provided chart 1 week in advance of high and chart for day of high)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Cheers for your detailed correction as to your thoughts on my mistakes.confused
> 
> I do not recall anyone calling 5.5 cent high on ASF with chart provided.(Check HC several weeks ago and I provided chart 1 week in advance of high and chart for day of high)




I think the point tech/a is trying to get through to you is that one does not "nail" prices.

One has an entry point and an exit point.

If circumstances change one has a stop loss point, which changes , often daily, even hourly, depending on one's timeframe.

It's not rocket science unless one falls in love with a stock.

Then one is out, with a profit or loss, and on to the next.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I think the point tech/a is trying to get through to you is that one does not "nail" prices.
> 
> 
> gg



Disagree GG.....No disrespect to tech/a as he is clearly a respected poster on this forum.
 It has been proven that it is I who is right.


I do recall a poster on here placed a chart showing move to 5 cents approx then sub 2 cents a while back (dont recall who) Shall not trawl back in thread to find who....definitely was not tech/a.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Disagree GG.....No disrespect to tech/a as he is clearly a respected poster on this forum.
> It has been proven that it is I who is right.
> 
> 
> I do recall a poster on here placed a chart showing move to 5 cents approx then sub 2 cents a while back (dont recall who) Shall not trawl back in thread to find who....definitely was not tech/a.




K68

One is never "right" with predictions.

Conservation of capital and profit as it comes is the only "right".

If this is all you learn on ASF it will have been worth it.

For example I "believe RIO will hit $100 this year and have been accumulating. I am not going to hold if it descends to $59.

PEN is a penny stock a good charting stock, in a challenged sector, with too many to chose actors, movers and shakers, including it's major holders, board and shorters.

Caveat emptor.

gg


----------



## tech/a

You think expertise is measured by/in being right.

So carry on.


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> K68
> 
> One is never "right" with predictions.
> 
> 
> gg





Hey GG....I feel you are jumping to the defence of tech/a.....he can stand on his own 2 feet.

Seems folk knock W D Gann.....I had already seen repetition in PEN.....Is reassuring to know lengendary traders as W D Gann prove repetition in stocks is cyclic............Rock on sub 2 cents


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> You think expertise is measured by/in being right.
> 
> So carry on.




Cheers for your fine reply tech/a.

I shall provide a chart in due time as to when I feel  PEN will touch sub 2 cents...........I will expect criticism from yourself


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Hey GG....I feel you are jumping to the defence of tech/a.....he can stand on his own 2 feet.
> 
> Seems folk knock W D Gann.....I had already seen repetition in PEN.....Is reassuring to know lengendary traders as W D Gann prove repetition in stocks is cyclic............Rock on sub 2 cents




lol

tech/a and I are not intimates and have clashed frequently.

I feel you are mistaken, but stick about, at least your opinions are honestly held.

gg


----------



## tech/a

Karlos68 said:


> Hey GG....I feel you are jumping to the defence of tech/a.....he can stand on his own 2 feet.
> 
> Seems folk knock W D Gann.....I had already seen repetition in PEN.....Is reassuring to know lengendary traders as W D Gann prove repetition in stocks is cyclic............Rock on sub 2 cents




Larry Williams (When in Australia) Challeneged David Bowden (Safety in the Market) To out trade him using Gann.
The bet was 1 million.
Bowden wisely declined.

Here is some lite reading.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-13871.html


*



			Is reassuring to know legendary traders as W D Gann prove repetition in stocks is cyclic
		
Click to expand...


*
I love Gann experts.

They are Drivel professionals.

Could you just put up the evidence of proof for/of Cyclic repetition in stocks.
No hurry when you dig it up. *Oh hind site just wont do.*

*Perhaps* 10 charts with 10 Cyclic Pressure points which are coming up.
We will see how many are hit. Ill even give you a few days before and after the "Date"

In fact Ill give you $100 for everyone you get right (Well Ill donate it to Joe and ASF).
I'm sure you'll do the same for everyone wrong--after all it is about being right---RIGHT?
Should be fun and highly profitable for Joe.

The path to profit will reveal itself when your good and ready.
Long time off by the look of things.

Good luck.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Hey GG....I feel you are jumping to the defence of tech/a.....he can stand on his own 2 feet.
> 
> Seems folk knock W D Gann.....I had already seen repetition in PEN.....Is reassuring to know lengendary traders as W D Gann prove repetition in stocks is cyclic............Rock on sub 2 cents




The feeling amongst the pensioners on HC is that it will fall next week, some on there say to 2c. It may be time to look at another entry on the long side.

I will be up early, at least 8.45am, to have a Gann-der at the open, here in Queensland. 

gg


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a.....I dont give a toss if you think Gann is a fraud......Ive seen the crap that can be trawled up by Google search...Even rubbish discrediting Fibonacci.....A chartist who I feel is pretty awesome is El Capo, he nailed 7.5 cent high earlier in year. A half arsed conspiracy theory that surfaced from the PEN threads on HC feels El Capo is connected with Citi and manipulated PEN to hit 7.5 then drop which in turn gave him an impressive reputation on Hot Copper



Was slurping on a few cold brews while drawing my Fib Fan chart yesterday. 
Love PEN. Full of repetitive movements. 
Have picked up a pattern beginning 2008/2009. Approx 9 month divisions showing significant lows. Even divided to 4.5 month spaces shows lows.
As Fib Fan broadens, time increases to reach high and low trendlines. 
With combination of broadening fan and 9 month divisions....My forward prediction is a dip in Feb 2013 and final low for this cycle in June/July 2013.


----------



## tech/a

Karlos68 said:


> tech/a.....I dont give a toss if you think Gann is a fraud......Ive seen the crap that can be trawled up by Google search...Even rubbish discrediting Fibonacci.....A chartist who I feel is pretty awesome is El Capo, he nailed 7.5 cent high earlier in year. A half arsed conspiracy theory that surfaced from the PEN threads on HC feels El Capo is connected with Citi and manipulated PEN to hit 7.5 then drop which in turn gave him an impressive reputation on Hot Copper
> 
> 
> 
> Was slurping on a few cold brews while drawing my Fib Fan chart yesterday.
> Love PEN. Full of repetitive movements.
> Have picked up a pattern beginning 2008/2009. Approx 9 month divisions showing significant lows. Even divided to 4.5 month spaces shows lows.
> As Fib Fan broadens, time increases to reach high and low trendlines.
> With combination of broadening fan and 9 month divisions....My forward prediction is a dip in Feb 2013 and final low for this cycle in June/July 2013.
> 
> View attachment 50163





Ill start saving my $100 for next October then. (When the final low for the "Cycle" (June/July) will no doubt be clear.)

Looking forward to your next 9 cycle calls.

Nothing points to prediction with fib.
Its simply a number series. Not everything---including price
conforms to the sequence.
In Mathematics there are many sequences.
Just as there are many ways of finding "Pressure points" with Gann.
A wonderful tool in hindsite
but in real-time trying to trade with it is an entirely different matter.

But hey will fill in countless hours of idle time and if you can find a coach
keep you investing in the "grail" for years.

Carry on.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Gann returns from the dead and gets a job for the NFL.

From The New Yorker






Make bull**** complicated and it will be believed by someone.

gg


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> bull****


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dengo said:


> View attachment 50167




I did say a remote possibility.

And I agree, it may be incorrect.

However the "close" PEN followers are predicting a fall in price, so I shall be watching for a long entry on any signs that I am correct.

gg


----------



## dengo

reichman said:


> ...remote possibility of .065 on the weekly...




Weekly RSI has just broken through support...previous three occurrences haven't been positive...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dengo said:


> Weekly RSI has just broken through support...previous three occurrences haven't been positive...
> 
> View attachment 50172




Thanks dengo.

However.

I would never buy or sell on an rsi, or an other indicator for that matter.

Price and Volume mate, price and volume.

gg


----------



## hja

I take it you don't like Fib but use Elliott.

Isn't Fib like Elliott, a kind of mathematical sequencing analysis used to judge human behaviour?




tech/a said:


> Ill start saving my $100 for next October then. (When the final low for the "Cycle" (June/July) will no doubt be clear.)
> 
> Looking forward to your next 9 cycle calls.
> 
> Nothing points to prediction with fib.
> Its simply a number series. Not everything---including price
> conforms to the sequence.
> In Mathematics there are many sequences.
> Just as there are many ways of finding "Pressure points" with Gann.
> A wonderful tool in hindsite
> but in real-time trying to trade with it is an entirely different matter.
> 
> But hey will fill in countless hours of idle time and if you can find a coach
> keep you investing in the "grail" for years.
> 
> Carry on.


----------



## tech/a

dengo said:


> Weekly RSI has just broken through support...previous three occurrences haven't been positive...
> 
> View attachment 50172




You really must brush up on your reading of indicators.
The 50 line is NOT support---If you disagree I'm listening.

Trading below the 50 line means that in the last 14 period the stocks losses have been more than its gains.

Seriously your simply looking at a graphical display of past price action.

*GG's*
Analysis (Price and Volume) clearly shows a whopping sell signal on 9/11 and another lesser signal
but clear on 21/12---*weekly chart*


As Clear as youll get on the 9/11---22/11 and 19/12 *daily chart.*

Any sign of pulling up
(A strong high volume range bar (down--as in exhaustion---then low volume buying which closes on highs indicating sellers have exhausted)) perhaps) at around 3 to 2.5c
would represent a good opportunity to see 100% gains at sometime--possibly more.

RSI is just way way too slow particularly weekly to trade these minnows.


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Price and Volume mate, price and volume.




You mean volume of HC posts Garpal Gumnut?
Here's a few volume links FWIW...

Trend lines -

"Breaks to the downside do not have a volume requirement. As with other bearish breaks, often there is a delayed volume surge."
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/trendline_bearish.cfm

Patterns -

"Breakdowns do not have the same volume or movement requirements as their opposite upside breaks. In fact, when stock breaks support with a massive volume surge, it often signals that of a capitulation sell-off and the stock rebounds shortly after. The best downside breaks occur on average volume followed by the stock drifting lower for a few days on increasing volume."
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/symmetrical_triangle_bearish.cfm

"Downside breaks do not have the same volume requirement as their bullish counterparts. Like other bearish breaks, there often is a delayed volume surge."
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/wedge_bearish.cfm

"As the stock trades lower, concern becomes fear and the selling accelerates. Then fear becomes panic, and people sell regardless of price. This is why there typically is a delayed volume surge with breaks to the downside."
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/head_and_shoulder_bearish.cfm


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> You really must brush up on your reading of indicators.
> The 50 line is NOT support---If you disagree I'm listening.




That's all I read...Can't you see the red RSI uptrend line I drew?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> You break me up.
> 
> You run a Lenards.
> 
> YOu on Monday have 200 people buying chooks.
> 
> On Tuesday 2000 people queue up to buy same chooks.
> 
> What price on Tuesday?
> 
> Stick to Hotcopper mate.
> 
> gg






dengo said:


> You mean volume of HC posts Garpal Gumnut?
> Here's a few volume links FWIW...
> 
> Trend lines -
> 
> "Breaks to the downside do not have a volume requirement. As with other bearish breaks, often there is a delayed volume surge."
> http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/trendline_bearish.cfm
> 
> Patterns -
> 
> "Breakdowns do not have the same volume or movement requirements as their opposite upside breaks. In fact, when stock breaks support with a massive volume surge, it often signals that of a capitulation sell-off and the stock rebounds shortly after. The best downside breaks occur on average volume followed by the stock drifting lower for a few days on increasing volume."
> http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/symmetrical_triangle_bearish.cfm
> 
> "Downside breaks do not have the same volume requirement as their bullish counterparts. Like other bearish breaks, there often is a delayed volume surge."
> http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/wedge_bearish.cfm
> 
> "As the stock trades lower, concern becomes fear and the selling accelerates. Then fear becomes panic, and people sell regardless of price. This is why there typically is a delayed volume surge with breaks to the downside."
> http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/head_and_shoulder_bearish.cfm




I can only refer you to my previous post on stock trade volume.

Ignore stock trade volume at your peril dengo.

Volume of positive or negative posts doesn't indicate much, but it tells you how everyman thinks, and brokers ain't any more educated than the pensioners on HC.

Many amateurs become enamoured of rsi a lagging indicator, tells you about last day, week, month etc. not today.

Ignore and I'll probably pick up your scrip on the turn.

Good trading on the rsi.

gg


----------



## tech/a

dengo said:


> That's all I read...Can't you see the red RSI uptrend line I drew?




I see.
Thanks.


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I can only refer you to my previous post on stock trade volume.
> 
> Ignore stock trade volume at your peril dengo.
> 
> Volume of positive or negative posts doesn't indicate much, but it tells you how everyman thinks, and brokers ain't any more educated than the pensioners on HC.
> 
> Many amateurs become enamoured of rsi a lagging indicator, tells you about last day, week, month etc. not today.
> 
> Ignore and I'll probably pick up your scrip on the turn.
> 
> Good trading on the rsi.
> 
> gg




No offence Garpal Gumnut, but I didn't have a clue what you were talking about in that post.
RSI does not lag price, as I've shown in previous charts


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dengo said:


> No offence Garpal Gumnut, but I didn't have a clue what you were talking about in that post.
> RSI does not lag price, as I've shown in previous charts




My mistake.

Apologies.

I still prefer price and volume to indicators, leading or lagging.

And a sincere best for your trading.

gg


----------



## tech/a

Your trend lines are drawn conveniently to show in hind site perfect timing.
There are many trend lines that can be drawn within the trends shown.
At the time the full trends could not be known.
So the trades. Wouldn't be as crisp as you have " indicated "


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> RSI is just way way too slow particularly weekly to trade these minnows.



Yeah OK tech/a.........if you say mate.......must be true




Heres a chart I did from the previous high. I also sold my trade on that Friday.


----------



## tech/a

Where are you starting your fib fan from?

Can you expand the chart to show start points?


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> Where are you starting your fib fan from?
> 
> Can you expand the chart to show start points?




I have read blogs/seen vids on the internet that Fib Fans start from a high or low points. The examples of Fib Fans I saw look like crap. PEN is different as there is no point to start from. I drew lines on the highs and the lower highs, the trendlines  diverge at around 1999. I marked in the Fib levels, drew lines to the divergence point and the amount of highs it touched was incredible.

PS Ill just add that there is another smaller fan within this I have seen but have not taken the time to draw and view. It starts from the low at mid 2003. When I get around to it I shall draw and see if it presents any value.


----------



## tech/a

Karlos68 said:


> I have read blogs/seen vids on the internet that Fib Fans start from a high or low points. The examples of Fib Fans I saw look like crap. PEN is different as there is no point to start from. I drew lines on the highs and the lower highs, the trendlines  diverge at around 1999. I marked in the Fib levels, drew lines to the divergence point and the amount of highs it touched was incredible.




That being the case I wouldn't draw in fib.No point in making it "fit"
Same for me with Elliott Waves---Unless its blindingly obvious I wont use it. (The wave count).



> PS Ill just add that there is another smaller fan within this I have seen but have not taken the time to draw and view. It starts from the low at mid 2003. When I get around to it I shall draw and see if it presents any value.




And that's the problem with Fib/Gann and even trend lines.
They look great on a chart BUT if your actually going to trade using them you'll die of frustration.

_*There are so many points from which to start and end analysis.
Very short term/short term/medium term/long term/Very long term.*
_
If you try to find confluence in all of these time frames you'll drive your self crazy.

*This is not the path to profitable trading.
Not even close.*

You may even see what I mean by watching your call for PEN at the right hand edge of the screen.


----------



## hja

tech/a said:


> And that's the problem with Fib/Gann and even trend lines.
> They look great on a chart BUT if your actually going to trade using them you'll die of frustration.



Considering trend lines are made from these, do you have a problem with support and resistance as well?


----------



## tech/a

hja said:


> Considering trend lines are made from these, do you have a problem with support and resistance as well?




Support and resistance can be similar.


----------



## hja

tech/a said:


> Support and resistance can be similar.




Then it doesn't leave much on a chart.


----------



## Trembling Hand

hja said:


> Then it doesn't leave much on a chart.




Sounds good.


----------



## hja

Trembling Hand said:


> Sounds good.




I'm just trying to understand how absolute his views are, that's all. Does that mean he would NEVER look at Fib or trend lines? I'm not trying to be clever.

Surely, even if one's analysis is based on volume and price, something must be used for reference points for entries and exits and I don't see what else can provide this, besides basic support and resistance areas.


----------



## Trembling Hand

hja said:


> , besides basic support and resistance areas.




Support and resistance is rarely static like a line drawn on a chart, especially a horizontal one. Price action makes AND moves S/R. The passing of time, bars on any chart, the printing of significant bars - range especially unusual range, are the things that should be concentrated on.


----------



## tech/a

There is no absolute.

Only possibility.
Prove and disprove.

Everything has a place yet often no place.

Many including dengo see comfort in complexity
Seeking correlation in random price action
Seemingly tamed and explained by countless points,intersections,
Levels and timelines.

All will be proven or disproven.
The decision then is buy/hold or sell.

You can spend hrs weeks or months on the complex 
Or seconds on the simple.

Both are governed by prove----disprove.

The are NO ABSOLUTES.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'm number 14 out of 42 with a 7.69% profit on this dawg., in the ASF Competition tonight.

This could be my month for a win.

gg


----------



## jancha

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm number 14 out of 42 with a 7.69% profit on this dawg., in the ASF Competition tonight.
> 
> This could be my month for a win.
> 
> gg




Good luck Garpal but MADs got that covered.


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This could be my month for a win.




They're posting charts with a 16.5c target so you're a shoe in Garpal Gumnut!

Gravestone Doji yesterday & retest/rejection of the prior price & RSI uptrend lines.
April Fool's Day 2012 all over again for the indicators...
Nearest gap = 3.8c


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm number 14 out of 42 with a 7.69% profit on this dawg., in the ASF Competition tonight.
> 
> This could be my month for a win.
> 
> gg




Jaysoo,

I am tonight now number 13, out of 42 with a 5.13% profit.

Yap, yap you little dawg PEN.

gg


----------



## jancha

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Jaysoo,
> 
> I am tonight now number 13, out of 42 with a 5.13% profit.
> 
> Yap, yap you little dawg PEN.
> 
> gg




And MAD climbs up the ladder to pass PEN at number 11 with a 7.53% gain!
Can this be another winner for the month for this ledgendary tipster? 
 Off the topic but maybe there should a form guide on the regular tipsters by using a percentage and point system. The lucky winner at the end of the year gets a xmas card from Joe!! 
They should have an icon for too much wine.


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Weekly RSI has just broken through support...previous three occurrences haven't been positive...
> View attachment 50172




Update on the weekly...

Bearish rising wedge & it's 2.5c measured move target


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Jaysoo,
> 
> I am tonight now number 13, out of 42 with a 5.13% profit.
> 
> Yap, yap you little dawg PEN.
> 
> gg






jancha said:


> And MAD climbs up the ladder to pass PEN at number 11 with a 7.53% gain!
> Can this be another winner for the month for this ledgendary tipster?
> Off the topic but maybe there should a form guide on the regular tipsters by using a percentage and point system. The lucky winner at the end of the year gets a xmas card from Joe!!
> They should have an icon for too much wine.




I am now at number 11 out of 42, in the competition, with my pick of PEN.

Woof woof.

This dawg can win, even standing still.

Where will it all end?

Are we witnessing another Poseidon?

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Are we witnessing another Poseidon?
> 
> gg





ROLOL.....thanks for the laugh gg ...I think I will frame that pearler for future reference. Sentiment gone from "downtrend avoid" to "Poseidon" in a month or so  

In case it has slipped right passed you, not that it matters, not even I give a rats about PEN's now extremely positive fundamentals at this point. The short selling BOT has PEN firmly grasped by the nad's and is still squeezing tight. Get ready for the next burst...down 

But keep picking PEN mate, one day you *WILL* crack it and win the monthly chook raffle.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> ROLOL.....thanks for the laugh gg ...I think I will frame that pearler for future reference. Sentiment gone from "downtrend avoid" to "Poseidon" in a month or so
> 
> In case it has slipped right passed you, not that it matters, not even I give a rats about PEN's now extremely positive fundamentals at this point. The short selling BOT has PEN firmly grasped by the nad's and is still squeezing tight. Get ready for the next burst...down
> 
> But keep picking PEN mate, one day you *WILL* crack it and win the monthly chook raffle.




Good to see you back.

I had imagined you captured by Batavians, duct taped, stuck in front of a computer, 40 virgins just out of reaching distance, eternally damned to watch PEN posts on the PENsioners thread on HC.

Down you reckon?

We shall see.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Good to see you back.
> 
> I had imagined you captured by Batavians, duct taped, stuck in front of a computer, 40 virgins just out of reaching distance, eternally damned to watch PEN posts on the PENsioners thread on HC.
> 
> Down you reckon?
> 
> We shall see.
> 
> gg






hahahaha no not quite as bad as that, although has a morbid sort of enticement about it  

Yep down my friend, turun dulu dong!.....watch the BOT.

Then once they have had their way with us all they will release the duct tape and free the virgins with the sp going "naik sekali banyak"....then you win the chook raffle (and a free virgin) maybe about Oct -December this year  

Target that magical 8c directors bonus level by the end of 2013. Then who knows maybe up and away to the next level or more games after holding 8c for 30 days as required. For now down...

Whatever happens be sure it has nothing to do with logic, fundamentals or TA. It will be whatever the BOT wants and simply follow them for a win. If there was a way I could short PEN I would but can't even get a Guernsey with a CFD provider, seems this game of shorting PEN is only for the "boys club" controlled by the BOT.

I am over it, I just play the game whatever it happens to be on the day now. I never worry about anything beyond my direct control and basically keep to myself in the main and much happier for it. It is a much different and very interesting perspective when playing the watcher instead of the watched.

Good luck for 2013 and the inevitable US caused comical market roller coaster. Saved from the fiscal cliff now teetering on the edge of seemingly bottomless US and Euro trillions of $$$'s debt.....but the "Trillion Dollar Coin" will save the world form financial doom :frown:

I agree with your comment that the market needs a damn good clean out and black swan event...that is buy time.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

lol hangseng.

Good to have you back.

I will send you a durian by courier.

My little escapade in the competition has had a minor setback. Probably due to a bot selling 1 or even 2 shares for a profit.

I am now relegated to 20th on the competition list out of 42.

I am still in profit in spite of this bot.

2.56%.

A normal retracement. Could even be a Fibonacci point.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Oh woe is me.

I have slipped to 25th out of 42 on the Competition with PEN as my pick, it is back to it's starting price.

I feel happier being in the middle of the field, sort of,  at this stage of the month.

Not ecstatic mind you.

At least I haven't lost any money.

gg


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> April Fool's Day 2012 all over again for the indicators...




Bearish MACD crossover today - waiting for the centerline cross
RSI now sub 50


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I am now in with the HC happy clappers and expecting a further "retracement" on PEN.

I am now 33 rd out of 42 in the ASF Competition.

I do like a late run.

2.56% down on the beginning of the month ain't bad for a PEN holder, so I should not whinge.

gg


----------



## dengo

First gap closed...
Rectangle measured move target = 3.5c
                                   Next gap = 3.5c


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

A small slip again in the ASF Competition.

I now sit 35th out of 42. Am I worried?

No.

I have instructed the hc pensioners to petition PEN headquarters for an announcement to coincide with the end of the month.

As Shakespeare said, 

Is this a dawg which I see before me? 

gg


----------



## tech/a

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A small slip again in the ASF Competition.
> 
> I now sit 35th out of 42. Am I worried?
> 
> No.
> 
> I have instructed the hc pensioners to petition PEN headquarters for an announcement to coincide with the end of the month.
> 
> As Shakespeare said,
> 
> Is this a dawg which I see before me?
> 
> gg




I turned the bot off this morning GG

Up Up and away!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> I turned the bot off this morning GG
> 
> Up Up and away!!




tech,

You are extremely brave, identifying that you have control over "the bot "

The hc Zimmer Pen Zombies will move in on you, uttering their deathly cry "Gu Gu Gussssssss".

Usually if you throw them a chart they dissolve in to useless scrip.

Still same ole, same ole. I'm 21st in the comp, 5.13% up which is more than most unfortunate Pen holders can ever expect, or is this the end of the beginning?

Thanks for the leg up today.

gg


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> First gap closed...
> Rectangle measured move target = 3.5c
> Next gap = 3.5c
> 
> View attachment 50441




3.5 cents now. I thought we were going sub 2c or was that Chalea. I don't know hang on let me get the dart board out for you.


----------



## notting

The sector seems to like the new Jap priminister.
Pen could get a ride out of that.
It would of couse be insane, but that's what the bull market generally offers and why even cats can outperform on it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/jan/13/investments-stock-picking


----------



## Boggo

I reckon that GG will be happy if it gets up to around this area 

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a

Boggo said:


> I reckon that GG will be happy if it gets up to around this area
> 
> (click to expand)




Ahh some real T/A how refreshing.

GG its on its way!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Thanks everyone, PEN is now 19th out of 42 with a 7.69% gain.

In to the home straight now.

nulla nulla, Vader and dutchie, watch out as the PEN slips through.

gg


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> 3.5 cents now. I thought we were going sub 2c or was that Chalea. I don't know hang on let me get the dart board out for you.




2.5c has been my low call until now. This 'dart-throw' says 2.2c, (Bear flag measured move).
Who is Chalea?


----------



## Country Lad

Ya gotta laugh.  137 pages, 2,733 posts, lots of wasted time, lots of angst and it is still a dog.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Trembling Hand

Country Lad said:


> Ya gotta laugh.  137 pages, 2,733 posts, lots of wasted time, lots of angst and it is still a dog.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




And,

Views: 271,607

A lot of learning hopefully........ (I'm an optimist )


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> 2.5c has been my low call until now. This 'dart-throw' says 2.2c, (Bear flag measured move).



Bearish cross on the weekly Slow stochastic...


----------



## Mickel

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks everyone, PEN is now 19th out of 42 with a 7.69% gain.
> 
> In to the home straight now.
> 
> nulla nulla, Vader and dutchie, watch out as the PEN slips through.
> 
> gg




GG you would have had a much more satisfying ride this month if you had chosen LNC.


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> Up Up and away!!




Hahahahahaha........if you say so tech/a.....if you say so mate





I felt a need to provide an update on my projections....I hope this basic chart will assist many on the probable direction of PEN due to recent ramping on this forum which maybe misleading.

PS At some point this trendline will break and it will be all on....As per my previous price prediction chart, June/July still looking goodartyman:


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have instructed the hc pensioners to petition PEN headquarters for an announcement to coincide with the end of the month.




Good grief:silly:.....Cheers GG.....The damage has been done.....You are so influential........I have just viewed the PEN thread at HC......The forum has been suspended until further notice


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Good grief:silly:.....Cheers GG.....The damage has been done.....You are so influential........I have just viewed the PEN thread at HC......The forum has been suspended until further notice




My lawyers, Soo, Grabbit and Runne have been instructed to issue an injunction on this suspension.

Whenever I feel down I go to the hc PEN thread for a laugh.

This has ramifications far beyond PEN.

Where will Insurance Companies get old crusties and grey nomads for their funeral and caravan rollover ads. The PEN thread on hc is full of them.

What of the famous Gus, no more annoying emails to distract him from running a listed ASX company.

It is Un-Australian.

I will be seeking damages.

Meanwhile in the more pleasant peaceful waters of ASF, I lie 22nd in a pack of forty, ready for an, (sorry I'm laughing so much I am finding it difficult to type,) announcement on Karoo and tech/a to reactivate the bot.

Then I will cruise in to first place, with PEN, in the competition.

gg


----------



## tech/a

*Its ready to launch as we speak.*

As impressive as the Nigerian Space program.


----------



## Donga

tech/a said:


> *Its ready to launch as we speak.*
> 
> As impressive as the Nigerian Space program.




Every time I visit this neck of the woods, am put off by the smart ass tone of the place. But with HC closed need a fix, so come over to this limp lot. 

Fortunately PEN is pretty much joined at the hip with U spot price, which can only go up. Four reasons:

1. World is already using more U than being produced 
2. japanese reactors will restart during 2013
3. New plants nearing completion come on line
4. Soviet warhead supply agreement with US ceases end of the year

Not sure if you can use TA to determine which U stock to ride, probably doesn't matter. Just prefer one that seems assured of going into production in good ole USA as the U price hikes. 

Btw, am not a HC pensioner but self funded, well travelled senior citizen who once lived in Nigeria


----------



## flashman1207

Well, Resource Upgrade announcement this morning and it goes down..... Is it that bad?


----------



## Joe Blow

Sarcasm and personal attacks add absolutely nothing to this thread.

If you have something of value to add, please do so. If not, please refrain from posting.

Am getting tired of the sniping and the off topic posts and will be removing all that don't measure up.


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Who is Chalea?




Chalea was a serial downramper on PEN threads of HC in the first half of 2010. 

Chalea arrived on ASF after the high in early 2011 and serial downramped PEN till well after the obvious uptrend which started late 2011.



Chalea posted many times relentlessly with analysis charts to the reasoning for a downtrend. Countless horror stories/News Articles of Nuke fallout from Fuku.
I enjoyed some drunken banter. I even picked up a couple of tips from Chalea. The best being a Parabolic Rise......PEN is full of them.....The Parabolic Rise assisted in my nailing the day of the mid 5 cent high chart I provided.
Some suspect Chalea was either a Anti-Nuke activist or an Asian employed to downramp to assist the Big Boys.


Flip I miss Chalea.....Maybe someday he/she shall return


----------



## Karlos68

flashman1207 said:


> Well, Resource Upgrade announcement this morning and it goes down..... Is it that bad?




Hi flashman.....PEN in an uptrend will move forward regardless of good or bad news. In a downtrend it will continue the fall regardless of good or bad news.

If you wish to know my projections on PEN....I placed a chart early January on this forum as to where I feel the Share Price of PEN is heading. I hope my chart may benefit yourself

Regards Karlos


----------



## flashman1207

Thanks Karlos,
    I just thought this was the Upgrade everyone was waiting for to push the share price up....


----------



## Karlos68

flashman1207 said:


> Thanks Karlos,
> I just thought this was the Upgrade everyone was waiting for to push the share price up....




Hey flashman...I am thrilled that my contribution has been able to assist yourself

Maybe the previous ramping on Hot Copper had created an expectation that announcements will create such euphoria that price explosions occur.........Many have been caught in the past.........Many still will.............Joe Blow has set a new course for ASF PEN forum.............I am looking forward (as I suspect many) to a new concern/dedication/welfare/caring/sharing among members on PEN, ASF.

All the best, Karlos


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

At great risk may I state that I have slipped to 23rd out of 42 in the ASF Competition with my PEN pick.

Thanks mickel, I should have chosen LNC.

May I welcome all hc PEN contributors to ASF, a much better forum than that other one.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> May I welcome all hc PEN contributors to ASF, a much better forum than that other one.




Hi Garpal.....Thats the Aussie Stock Forum spirit.................Lets band together ASF members and welcome with open arms our fellow internet PEN friends:1luvu:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Hi Garpal.....Thats the Aussie Stock Forum spirit.................Lets band together ASF members and welcome with open arms our fellow internet PEN friends:1luvu:




Agree Karlos.

Welcome to all PEN followers on ASF.

gg


----------



## Donga

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree Karlos.
> 
> Welcome to all PEN followers on ASF.
> 
> gg




Thanks gg. Started forums as approaching retirement at ASF (HS got me into PEN) until found not enough interest in most of my other small caps. So switched to rabid HC as Upmarket with PEN my biggest and the longest held small cap. Did very well with many thread inspired punts until GFC2 and still holding mostly profits. 

Speak with Gus on rare occasions but as indicated earlier believe the sector is hostage to current U sentiment, which am confident is about to uptick with PEN suitably positioned. 

Best wishes in your tipping contest!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Donga said:


> Thanks gg. Started forums as approaching retirement at ASF (HS got me into PEN) until found not enough interest in most of my other small caps. So switched to rabid HC as Upmarket with PEN my biggest and the longest held small cap. Did very well with many thread inspired punts until GFC2 and still holding mostly profits.
> 
> Speak with Gus on rare occasions but as indicated earlier believe the sector is hostage to current U sentiment, which am confident is about to uptick with PEN suitably positioned.
> 
> Best wishes in your tipping contest!




Agree totally.

I had just sent a PM (private message) to Reichman.



> I notice you are watching PEN thread. Of all the hc posters I felt you were the most astute. Don't be afraid to post. ASF posters are a bit more astute than HC ones, they've lost more money !!, and gained more than on HC. Biff is more but knowledge is better shared. Good luck and times with PEN




I found hc PEN thread hostage to the usual boring old farts.

We on ASF would value any opinions from former hc PEN holders or lurkers.

But there is more biff and request for evidence on ASF than hc.

And it puts the timid off.

Then the timid do not inherit the earth.

ASF members tend to have an open mind, but say it as they see it, and do not have groupthink as on hc.

And the timid may become less so on ASF as I did.

gg


----------



## colossus

GG, if I may ask, what made you choose PEN for the tipping comp?  Was it fundamental / technical analysis or just a gut feel?  Completely understand if you don't want to respond and my apologies if you've already offered an answer to this in an earlier post.
Col.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

colossus said:


> GG, if I may ask, what made you choose PEN for the tipping comp?  Was it fundamental / technical analysis or just a gut feel?  Completely understand if you don't want to respond and my apologies if you've already offered an answer to this in an earlier post.
> Col.




Uranium is a contrarian bet atm, so more gut feel than anything else, and PEN seem to feature in analysis of Uranium prospects on reading about uranium.

gg


----------



## colossus

Cheers GG, I was a regular on HC so it's good to gain a fresh perspective.
Regards,
Col.


----------



## hangseng

Just for the record I wish to correct some previous posts and a request for evidence by Country Lad.

There is no evidence of a Securities Lending Agreement between PALA and Citi, my information on this was incorrect it seems. However There is a "Prime Brokerage Agreement" in place with "UGS AG and Customer", "Customer" being undefined in the agreement. Citigroup Nominees is listed as the registered Holder.

The "UGS AG and Customer" *"Prime Brokerage Agreement"* is within various company substantial holder notices on the PEN website. The first of them is the initial interest notice relating to the PALA issue after becoming PEN's cornerstone investor, this first notice is listed as _*"25 January 2011 Change in Substantial Holder (346.22 Kb)*"_ to be found here - http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---aecinaefee.pdf. There are two others I was directed to on the PEN website both relating to PALA share issues, both having the same agreement attached.

I was this morning directed to *Clause 8.7* of the agreement by my astute friend. It makes it very clear _*UBS can "transfer Assets" "so that UBS may borrow, lend, charge, sell, transfer or otherwise use those Assets for it's own purposes or the purposes of its other clients".*_ These "assets" clearly being the PALA issued shares. Noting in the PEN Top 20 holders PALA isn't and has never been mentioned, only Citi Nominees is and each time PALA's interest increased so did Citi Nominees. Citi Nominees are listed in the attached document that refers to the Prime Brokerage agreement.

Make of this as you will, I have my own views that I will now keep to myself and last on this from me.


Meanwhile the BOT selling continues unabated, sorry not looking good for your win GG maybe next month.


----------



## Donga

Donga said:


> PEN is pretty much joined at the hip with U spot price, which can only go up. Four reasons:
> 
> 1. World is already using more U than being produced
> 2. japanese reactors will restart during 2013
> 3. New plants nearing completion come on line
> 4. Soviet warhead supply agreement with US ceases end of the year




In the spirit of throwing some factual info up, I provide link below to article came across (maybe Tania from PEN HQ) and a list of new reactors over next few years. The article is one of a few recently that talk to the above, and the list came from another, can't lay my hands on atm. 

Am surprised more investors haven't picked up on these dynamics lately, allowing the bot to carry on merrily. Not into tea leaves, though admit to being long suffering with PEN, while other small caps stayed re-rated lol. But Fuku happened and maybe gave the traders a plaything for a few years. Hard to see them messing with the  factors above for too much longer IMO.  

And for the serial anti U trolls on ASF - grow up and develop some objective brain cells. Some of the scaremongering trash is just woeful. Gotta love the last one on this thread about thyroid growth with kids. The poster omitted to follow through with the debunking facts from other contributors, typical. Enough rant for a day, weather too nice. 

2013 India, NPCIL Kudankulam 2 PWR 950
2013 Korea, KHNP Shin Wolsong 2 PWR 1000
2013 Korea, KHNP Shin-Kori 3 PWR 1350
2013 Russia Leningrad II-1 PWR 1070
2013 Argentina, CNEA Atucha 2 PHWR 692
2013 China, CNNC Sanmen 1 PWR 1250
2013 China, CGNPC Ningde 2 PWR 1080
2013 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 1 PWR 1080
2013 China, CGNPC Taishan 1 PWR 1700
2013 China, CNNC Fangjiashan 1 PWR 1080
2013 China, CNNC Fuqing 1 PWR 1080
2013 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 2 PWR 1080
2013 India, Bhavini Kalpakkam FBR 470

2014 Finland, TVO Olkilouto 3 PWR 1600
2014 Russia Vilyuchinsk PWR x 2 70
2014 Russia, Rosener Novovoronezh II-1 PWR 1070
2014 Slovakia, SE Mochovce 3 PWR 440
2014 Slovakia, SE Mochovce 4 PWR 440
2014 Taiwan Power Lungmen 1 ABWR 1300
2014 China, CNNC Sanmen 2 PWR 1250
2014 China, CPI Haiyang 1 PWR 1250
2014 China, CGNPC Ningde 3 PWR 1080
2014 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 3 PWR 1080
2014 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 4 PWR 1080
2014 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 2 PWR 1080
2014 China, CGNPC Taishan 2 PWR 1700
2014 China, CNNC Fangjiashan 2 PWR 1080
2014 China, CNNC Fuqing 2 PWR 1080
2014 China, CNNC Changjiang 1 PWR 650
2014 Korea, KHNP Shin-Kori 4 PWR 1350
2014 Japan, Chugoku Shimane 3 ABWR 1375
2014 Japan, EPDC/J Power Ohma 1 ABWR 1350
2014 Russia Beloyarsk 4 FNR 750

2015 USA, TVA Watts Bar 2 PWR 1180
2015 Russia, Rosenergoatom Rostov 3 PWR 1070
2015 Taiwan Power Lungmen 2 ABWR 1300
2015 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 3 PWR 1080
2015 China, CPI Haiyang 2 PWR 1250
2015 China, CGNPC Ningde 4 PWR 1080
2015 China, CGNPC Fangchenggang 1 PWR 1080
2015 China, CNNC Changjiang 2 PWR 650
2015 China, CNNC Fuqing 3 PWR 1080
2015 China, China Huaneng Shidaowan HTR 200
2015 India, NPCIL Kakrapar 3 PHWR 640

2016 France, EdF Flamanville 3 PWR 1600
2016 Russia, Rosenergoatom Novovoronezh II-2 PWR 1070
2016 Russia, Rosenergoatom Leningrad II-2 PWR 1200
2016 Ukraine, Energoatom Khmelnitsky 3 PWR 1000
2016 India, NPCIL Kakrapar 4 PHWR 640
2016 India, NPCIL Rajasthan 7 PHWR 640
2016 China, CGNPC Yangjiang 4 PWR 1080
2016 China, CGNPC Hongyanhe 5 PWR 1080
2015 China, CNNC Hongshiding 1 PWR 1080
2016 Pakistan, PAEC Chashma 3 PWR 300
2016 USA, Southern Vogtle 3 PWR 1200

2017 Russia, Rosenergoatom Baltic 1 PWR 1200
2017 Russia, Rosenergoatom Rostov 4 PWR 1200
2017 Russia, Rosenergoatom Leningrad II-3 PWR 1200
2017 Ukraine, Energoatom Khmelnitsky 4 PWR 1000
2017 Korea, KHNP Shin-Ulchin 1 PWR 1350
2017 India, NPCIL Rajasthan 8 PHWR 640
2017 Romania, SNN Cernavoda 3 PHWR 655
2017? Japan, JAPC Tsuruga 3 APWR 1538
2017 Pakistan, PAEC Chashma 4 PWR 300
2017 USA, Southern Vogtle 4 PWR 1200
2017 USA, SCEG Summer 2 PWR 1200


----------



## skyQuake

UBS aint the culprit here. Its not insto algobots shorting stock. In fact, its the retail crowd bailing.


Biggest seller has been Commsec this month. 6.5m shares net sold
UBS sold net 272k shares.
As for %of monthly volume, Commsec did a massive 38.8%
UBS did 0.7%

If we look at Dec, commsec net sold 8m shares
UBS net bought 90k

Its not Insto algos selling, its retail losing faith and dumping!

source: iress


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Its not insto algobots shorting stock. In fact, its the retail crowd bailing.
> 
> [BLAH BLAH BLAH]
> 
> 
> Its not Insto algos selling, its retail losing faith and dumping!
> 
> source: iress




What a load of BS skyQuake. You know its an insto BOT playing around on a stock that has $150,000 of turnover a day.

LAUGH OUT VERY LOAD!!


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> You know its an insto BOT playing around on a stock that has $150,000 of turnover a day.



It's an Iphone App BOT


----------



## bell diver

Anyone know why HC was shut down??

Not a previous post was moderated?? Yet Pen Legal representation shut the site down?

Sorry but this isnt good for pen in my opinion?? Makes me think the up coming announcements aren't going to bode well and will have some obvious holes in them?? They dont want them discussed?? Plenty of other companies cop a flogging on there and you always have the good and the bad??

The crazy thing for me is there was nothing really negative at the moment so it almost seems like stopping discussion, wonder if this site will be next??

Thoughts??


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Does anyone have a chart comparing Uranium price to PEN price?      

gg


----------



## flashman1207

bell diver said:


> Anyone know why HC was shut down??
> 
> 
> Thoughts??




I was wondering the same thing... there was none of the usual rubbish that one could consider slander or the like. Just a load of bored individuals talking charts.... Was like they knew the announcement was not up to expectations and didn't wan't people talking about it....

Anyway what happened to freedom of speech ?


----------



## bell diver

flashman1207 said:


> I was wondering the same thing... there was none of the usual rubbish that one could consider slander or the like. Just a load of bored individuals talking charts.... Was like they knew the announcement was not up to expectations and didn't wan't people talking about it....
> 
> Anyway what happened to freedom of speech ?




Interesting that a public company can say they no longer wished to be discussed on a public forum. If it persists they will start legal action?? It's like saying there can be no more articles written about PEN in newspapers????

HC either arent telling the full story and an investigation is ensuing about previous posts or there a bunch of pussies and bend over at the drop of a hat.


----------



## Donga

flashman1207 said:


> I was wondering the same thing... there was none of the usual rubbish that one could consider slander or the like. Just a load of bored individuals talking charts.... Was like they knew the announcement was not up to expectations and didn't wan't people talking about it....
> 
> Anyway what happened to freedom of speech ?




If you're going to have folk crapping on endlessly about management intentions, failures etc and management is not interested/not have the time to rebut, why would you tolerate a thread often dominated by those with little else to do than naively nit pick?!

A pity in some ways, that the culture of the site is such it encourages rabid posters. Reckon they ought to restrict  to so many stock posts per day. At one time there were a few antagonists driving the thread and many people just lost interest. Gotta say it wan't that bad lately, so not sure about the timing. Maybe took a while for someone to get around to it either at HC or PEN initiative? 

And gg, am not good at posting cross charts but my gut tells me regardless of last two year trends, PEN won't move fundamentally until Japanese reactors start being switched on and looming U supply gets more headlines. So am not expecting Karoo JORC update to do much. Until U price starts to move, believe only news relating to any positive SML approval will create more interest.  

Could be quiet for the next few months, but you never know with PEN.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

We are now 2 days away from the end of the competition.

I am at 00.00% loss or gain. 

I am at 24th on the Comp list out of 42.

The only reason I joined ASF initially was to win the Comp.

Am I upset.

Am I dejected

No.

As if I were on hc I will give Dave or Gus, or Cynthia or someone else a call at PEN to get an "update" tomorrow.

I have ordered a zimmer frame lest they require photographic evidence.

PEN may, just may, just maybe, double in price in the next 2 days and I will win the comp.

gg


----------



## colossus

you don't need it to double to win the comp GG, you just need it to go up 60%.
share price prediction for close on 31/01/13 = 0.064c - we might need some spectacular news and more than just the karoo jorc to get there.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

colossus said:


> you don't need it to double to win the comp GG, you just need it to go up 60%.
> share price prediction for close on 31/01/13 = 0.064c - we might need some spectacular news and more than just the karoo jorc to get there.





Thanks colossus, a good start today with a 2.56% rise. I'm still in the middle of the pack.

A good 60% rise tomorrow should see me win.

gg


----------



## CanOz

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks colossus, a good start today with a 2.56% rise. I'm still in the middle of the pack.
> 
> A good 60% rise tomorrow should see me win.
> 
> gg




Looks a bit like a heart monitor GG...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

CanOz said:


> Looks a bit like a heart monitor GG...





2 Corinthians 6:14-18

gg


----------



## bell diver

Garpal Gumnut said:


> 2 Corinthians 6:14-18
> 
> gg




Cashflow report out.

Im no accountant, any glaring errors in there? Im paranoid about HC being shut down and wonder if they didnt want this discussed??


----------



## bell diver

look out Pen has gone into pre open status?? trading halt?? Big news about to come out??? Lets hope its a cracka!!


----------



## bell diver

Hmm theres an offer to sell @.27 for a mere 2000 shares or so?? Whats up????? Still no announcement about the trading halt!!


----------



## Country Lad

bell diver said:


> look out Pen has gone into pre open status?? trading halt?? Big news about to come out??? Lets hope its a cracka!!




Lots of excitement over the quarterly activity reports?  Can happen only in a PEN thread.   At this stage the matchout is 3.9 cents.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## bell diver

But you cant go into a trading halt over a quarterlies report, there must be another announcement on its way???


----------



## bell diver

Maybe you can?? back to normal trading??? Maybe just a commsec glitch????


----------



## Country Lad

bell diver said:


> But you cant go into a trading halt over a quarterlies report,..............




Of course you can.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## bell diver

Country Lad said:


> Of course you can.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




Really? But to go into a trading halt there is normally and announcement as why there is a halt? And when the halt will be lifted?
I havent seen any other company go into a TH for 20 mins before with no notification??

Guess you learn something every day.


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> 2 Corinthians 6:14-18
> 
> gg




_"2 Corinthians 6:14-18
King James Version (KJV)


14 Be ye not unequally yoked together with unbelievers: for what fellowship hath righteousness with unrighteousness? and what communion hath light with darkness?

15 And what concord hath Christ with Belial? or what part hath he that believeth with an infidel?

16 And what agreement hath the temple of God with idols? for ye are the temple of the living God; as God hath said, I will dwell in them, and walk in them; and I will be their God, and they shall be my people.

17 Wherefore come out from among them, and be ye separate, saith the Lord, and touch not the unclean thing; and I will receive you.

18 And will be a Father unto you, and ye shall be my sons and daughters, saith the Lord Almighty."_


Need all the help you can get gg....5 hours to go and never say die eh!

Wonder what the T(e)A leaves say? With 3.9 having been chipped away at and now today flogged heading to 3.8 not looking good gg but Corinthian 14 is with you lol.


As for the speculation on HC closing down PEN, it has 3/5ths of B'all to do with the speculative crap written here of late. I know exactly why it occurred but can't/won't be relaying it any further. HC are rightly protecting themselves (as would ASF) from posters they deem may have stepped over the mark, it is suffice to say and they did warn posters previously of what may occur. Tread carefully...


----------



## bell diver

Ok so announcement out and prices drops on Low volume. 

Now disscussions on Pen thread banned so is there something bad in there? Or is Pen working with insto's so they can have a little shake out as mum and dad investors will be worried?

Stupidiest thing they ever did was shut down the HC forum. Now there isnt anyone to help digest the info??


----------



## Trembling Hand

hangseng said:


> Tread carefully...




This is possible the worst and most offensive post I have ever seen.

The moderators carry out their job once someone crosses the line. It is absolutely inappropriate for a long term bull to be issuing warnings to people who wish to share their own personal opinion.

Truly offensive!


----------



## bell diver

How are those Karoo updates due out before xmas coming along??


----------



## Labtech

:alcohol:







bell diver said:


> How are those Karoo updates due out before xmas coming along??




Who knows, I asked Gus directly and specifically at the AGM and he said straight faced "before Christmas". BTW (IMO) I'm not buying any delay due to lab testing - most have no backlogs, are crying out for samples, and have been since Sept.

I should have got him to put a carton on it - at least I would have had something to show.... :alcohol:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Well the January Comp is over, and I have finished 24th out of a field of 42.

And I am even steven. Entered at 0.039 and end at 0.039.

I have picked PEN again for February.

I must give Cynthia, Errol or Stan or whatever their names are, a call at headquarters, probably not tomorrow. 

PEN is an unfolding story, for it's investors let us hope it has a happy ending.

Again may I ask could someone post the share price of PEN versus the Uranium price. I do not have the wit to do it.

gg


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> PEN versus the Uranium price


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dengo said:


> View attachment 50714




Thanks mate,

As I thought, and all the pensioners on hc had to do was follow this chart.

Simple, and so much kerfuffle.

gg


----------



## Boggo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks mate,
> 
> As I thought, and all the pensioners on hc had to do was follow this chart.
> 
> Simple, and so much kerfuffle.
> 
> gg




You should have talked to Gus, that's what the smart investors do


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Boggo said:


> You should have talked to Gus, that's what the smart investors do




I've been trying to speak with Cynthia.

So, Gus is the man to go to.

Silly me.

gg


----------



## hangseng

Trembling Hand said:


> This is possible the worst and most offensive post I have ever seen.
> 
> The moderators carry out their job once someone crosses the line. It is absolutely inappropriate for a long term bull to be issuing warnings to people who wish to share their own personal opinion.
> 
> Truly offensive!




You are easily offended it seems.

The post was genuine and not a "warning" as you put it. Take it or leave it I really don't give a damn. It is unfortunate I know what happened, even more unfortunate it did. 

I would not like to see the same happen here and people lose the opportunity "to share their own personal opinion."

It wasn't PEN that shut the thread down as is being banded around aimlessly. HC were simply protecting themselves as they have every right to do. There is far more to it but I will leave it at that.

As for me being a long term bull, times have changed and I with them. I am very much a short term bear in fact and have been for a while now. My decision vindicated with the BOT continuing the sell down.

Fundamentally PEN doing fine but can't fight sentiment, nor the BOT continuing to play with PEN.

I care not for your small minded opinion, that ignores the fact I was doing just as you espouse others have the right to do. Or is it just for those you approve of to have an opinion here?


----------



## Joe Blow

This thread is about PEN. It is not about those who post in the thread, other forums, or any other topic unrelated to PEN.

Posts in this thread should contain information and/or analysis related to PEN, and nothing else.

Specifically, what I do not want to see in this thread is:

(1) Personal attacks or insults of any kind.  
(2) The referencing of other posters, unless it is for the sole purpose of responding to the content of their post(s).
(3) The baiting of holders/bulls by bears who make light of a declining share price.
(4) The baiting of bears by holders/bulls who mock their analysis, rather than respond to it in a constructive way.
(5) Off topic posts that have no bearing on PEN. This includes remarks about goings on at other forums or the ASF stock tipping competition.

Feel free to criticise the analysis of others, or correct information you believe to be incorrect or misleading, just *don't make it personal*. This also applies to those having their analysis or information in their post(s) criticised. *Do not make it personal*. Just offer a defence, if you have one.

If this thread fails to improve in the near future I may close it temporarily or order specific individuals not to post in it.

I am tired of the drama, sniping and personal attacks this thread generates and I'm not prepared to tolerate it any longer. So, for the sake of this thread, please only post dispassionate analysis and information sharing. 

All views are welcome and entitled to be presented, as long as they are constructive and are not deliberately misleading or contain factual errors. And please be sure to back up all forward looking statements and price forecasts was reasoned analysis.

Thank you all for your co-operation.


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> ....My forward prediction is a dip in Feb 2013.......




February has arrived. Going to be an interesting few weeks


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> February has arrived. Going to be an interesting few weeks
> 
> View attachment 50749




That is a very interesting chart.

I would be bullish on that, it has been trading sideways for some time now. A revisit of the low 0.03's would be a concern though.

PEN may surprise, to the upside.

gg


----------



## dengo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A revisit of the low 0.03's would be a concern though.




Bear flag continuation pattern breakout confirmed by MACD crossing below it's center line & RSI breaking it's (green) support line.
Measured move target = 2.3c


----------



## hangseng

"Surprise to the upside"
and
"Measured move target = 2.3c"

Good to see agreement on the T(e)A leaves.

For many Ih ope you are right gg. However happy to sit this out in waiting for what I believe will be the BOT's last hoorah before moving up toward the EOY and SML issue.

But then the much awaited NRC hearing. Should bring plenty of guessing by all once again.


----------



## CanOz

Here's my take on it...in order to keep things relevant. At some point if you have been holding from one of those big spikes, you've got to decide when you're going to throw in the towel. Always have an exit plan...

There are some options on the chart..*WEEKLY*.

Insults will be promptly deleted guys...keep it real.

CanOz


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> That is a very interesting chart.
> 
> I would be bullish on that, it has been trading sideways for some time now. A revisit of the low 0.03's would be a concern though.
> 
> PEN may surprise, to the upside.
> 
> gg






CanOz said:


> Here's my take on it...in order to keep things relevant. At some point if you have been holding from one of those big spikes, you've got to decide when you're going to throw in the towel. Always have an exit plan...
> 
> There are some options on the chart...
> 
> Insults will be promptly deleted guys...keep it real.
> 
> CanOz




Thanks CanOz, our analysis is basically similar.

PEN is, to steal a diving ( aquatic olympics ) expression,  presently poised on a double reverse bear trap, with spikes, reverse tucks and triple twists, which it may just pull off with a move up.

If it heads for the low 0.03's my analysis will be incorrect.

gg


----------



## mickqld

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks CanOz, our analysis is basically similar.
> 
> PEN is, to steal a diving ( aquatic olympics ) expression,  presently poised on a double reverse bear trap, with spikes, reverse tucks and triple twists, which it may just pull off with a move up.
> 
> If it heads for the low 0.03's my analysis will be incorrect.
> 
> gg




This is my biggest fear with PEN at the moment. It has been played up and down like a yo-yo game artificially pumped up and down for some time now. Those responsible (The BOTS) whoever they are are now playing a very dangerous and damaging game. We have a bull market surge appearing in world market equities BUT if they continue to suppress this stock then it may well be damaged goods and unappealing for any equity investors no matter how wonderful their announcements may be for years to come. They want to continue to play with fire here, then they may burn this stock for good.


----------



## mickqld

hangseng said:


> "Surprise to the upside"
> and
> "Measured move target = 2.3c"
> 
> Good to see agreement on the T(e)A leaves.
> 
> For many Ih ope you are right gg. However happy to sit this out in waiting for what I believe will be the BOT's last hoorah before moving up toward the EOY and SML issue.
> 
> But then the much awaited NRC hearing. Should bring plenty of guessing by all once again.




I fear if they want to push this stock down to the low 3's or 2's they will do irrepairable damage to PEN in this current market.


----------



## Karlos68

mickqld said:


> I fear if they want to push this stock down to the low 3's or 2's they will do irrepairable damage to PEN in this current market.




No need to feel distressed from Bots or viewing individuals perspectives on likely bearish movements in the Share Price in the coming months mickqld. Im still firm on a low come June/July this year.  I have provided a long term chart to give yourself a perspective of repetition in PEN.


----------



## hangseng

mickqld said:


> I fear if they want to push this stock down to the low 3's or 2's they will do irrepairable damage to PEN in this current market.




You may well be right Mick, in fact in the eyes of many once loyal retail holders damage has already been done....me included.

I still hold the BOT will stop once the Prime Broking agreement is finalised. IMO while this is in place with Pala shares held by UGS AB via Citi Nominees it will continue to be detrimental to the share price and shareholders.

How it can be legal is beyond me, but unfortunately it is.


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> You may well be right Mick, in fact in the eyes of many once loyal retail holders damage has already been done....me included.
> 
> I still hold the BOT will stop once the Prime Broking agreement is finalised. IMO while this is in place with Pala shares held by UGS AB via Citi Nominees it will continue to be detrimental to the share price and shareholders.
> 
> How it can be legal is beyond me, but unfortunately it is.




Its not ubs...


skyQuake said:


> UBS aint the culprit here. Its not insto algobots shorting stock. In fact, its the retail crowd bailing.
> 
> 
> Biggest seller has been Commsec this month. 6.5m shares net sold
> UBS sold net 272k shares.
> As for %of monthly volume, Commsec did a massive 38.8%
> UBS did 0.7%
> 
> If we look at Dec, commsec net sold 8m shares
> UBS net bought 90k
> 
> Its not Insto algos selling, its retail losing faith and dumping!
> 
> source: iress




if anything its a margin call


----------



## reichman

The retail crowd (to this stage anyway) haven't been selling down on 'high volume'. On the higher volume days, the SP has risen during the course of that session.

'Margin Calls' could indeed be the reason skyQuake. The bot, however, is not run by retail investors. We (the average joe share market player/investor) don't have that capability.

So, if UBS ain't the culprit - in otherwords, aren't the one's selling..... doesn't that lend itself to suggest that they, or another group with the ability to utilize a bot, are simply trying in get the SP down by selling down in very, very small parcels, occasionally getting a frustrated ma and pa investor to give up?


----------



## skyQuake

Frankly doesnt matter who is running the bot. Low volume trades usually mean nothing. 

Not saying retail have been selling on 'high volume' days; just that the bulk of the selling has been by retail so far (via commsec etc)

Any fwiw, using an algo to sell stock isnt trying to manipulate the price down. If anything its to try to minimize price impact. Hitting the bid with a million shares is a lot more visible (and damaging) than selling 1000 shares every 20 seconds.


----------



## Country Lad

I find all this talk about the bots quite amusing.  The issue about bot activity in any share is not whether they are active but are they in fact influencing the price.

If you look at Thursday's trading the bots had absolutely no influence.  On Friday there was no activity by the bots and the price fell.  Same thing Tuesday.  Same thing Thurs 24th.

Don't blame the bots, the price is falling quite successfully without them.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## tech/a

Let see.
The reasons I have seen put up on this board for a falling price or stagnancy.
In no order.

Various funds selling off.
Capital raising
Reactor melt down
Falling Uranium price.
Poor communication with investors from management
Commissioning of plant
Floods in the mine.

Now BOTS.

Yeh right!

NEXT


----------



## Country Lad

skyQuake said:


> Any fwiw, using an algo to sell stock isnt trying to manipulate the price down.




Precisely, there is a real misunderstanding by most people what bots do and it is rather amusing how people talk about bots and High Frequency Trading being designed to drive the market in a certain direction.  In fact, the bot is not necessarily trying to influence the price, it is testing the market direction, and if it detects a movement, it will make trades before that direction actually occurs.  A definition is that: 

_HFT strategies utilise computers making decisions to initiate orders based on information that is received electronically, before human traders are capable of processing the information they observe.​_
So the bots are not programmed to drive the market in any direction, but anticipate the direction and go with it.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## reichman

But who runs the bots Country Lad? Not me and I daresay, not you. 

If a bot is trying to find/anticipate the direction, as you believe,  and go with it, 'who' is trying to find this direction? And who's to say you are right - although I do note you state that a bot is not necessarily trying to influence the price. Not necessarily means that you still accept the possibility that a bot (on any share, not just Pen), could be there to attempt to confuse the masses. 

I pass no judgement/ opinion on where the SP and the company may head in the ensueing weeks and months. I am simply asking sincere questions - something that appears to be frowned upon by many of the ASF mainstays. The arrogance of many here I daresay makes many potential posters feel uncomfortable at the thought of even contemplating posting.

Anyway, hope you make money with whatever you're invested in.

regards


----------



## hangseng

skyQuake said:


> Its not ubs...





I never stated UBS are the BOT, read again.

There IS a "Prime brokerage" agreement in place between UGS AB and Citi Nominees. Pala shares clearly held by Citi Nominees. Go back in my recent post on this for the direct link to the relevant announcement.

UGS AB can then do whatever they like within legal means with thise shares ("Assets" clause 8.7).

Within the latter mix I believe the source/s would be found. As this agreement doesn't require any disclosure as such, not you nor anyone else would know specifically who it is. Not unless of course you are aligned with it in some way directly or indirectly.

PEN was once available on IGmarkets as long or short, now it is only available for "closing deals". Not sure about other CFD providers. What was/is the CFD providers source of stock? 

The BOT is having a field day as retail holders sell as the BOT continues the multiple $20, $30, $40, $50, $60 trades every few minutes. This is done why? Certainly not for the benefit of shareholders. And why would anyone want to hold when it is plain as day it is in place to sell the stock down. Yes it is "testing direction" created by its own actions, selling down observers see as a negative and remain out (me) or sell. Buying up seen as a positive bringing in buyers and panic selling ceases.

I agree with one thing, the stock is headed down and the algorithm trading will continue to aid it significantly. The only ones that can't see this are those without live access and those that don't want to for whatever reason.

Seemingly plenty of algorithm trading supporters here, I wonder why?


----------



## CanOz

hangseng said:


> Seemingly plenty of algorithm trading supporters here, I wonder why?




I don't think they're supporters, but some of them are or have been Prop Traders. They come with an experience in the market that 99% of us lack. They have access to information and other experienced market participants that we do not have and so i tend to believe their opinions of the algo activity. They see and it deal with it every day.

By the way...xin nin kuai le!

CanOz


----------



## Country Lad

CanOz said:


> I don't think they're supporters,




You have got that right in my case.  The argument by HFTraders that it improves liquidity is a nonsense as far as I am concerned.  Even though HFT does not usually affect the direction of the price, it stuffs up my algorithms and no doubt confuses many traders as well as hiding the course of the real trades.

The only reason the HFT is allowed is for those instos to make money.  It should be banned.

And Xin Nian Kuai Le to you  CanOz, may it be a good one.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Country Lad

skyQuake said:


> Its not ubs...




Yep, UBS.  A quick look at 3 days with HFT activity,

UBS was on the Sell side of all of them on 24 Jan; 
UBS was on the Sell side of all of them on 23 Jan;
UBS was on the buy side of all of them on 21 Jan.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> I never stated UBS are the BOT, read again.
> 
> There IS a "Prime brokerage" agreement in place between UGS AB and Citi Nominees. Pala shares clearly held by Citi Nominees. Go back in my recent post on this for the direct link to the relevant announcement.
> 
> UGS AB can then do whatever they like within legal means with thise shares ("Assets" clause 8.7).
> 
> Within the latter mix I believe the source/s would be found. As this agreement doesn't require any disclosure as such, not you nor anyone else would know specifically who it is. Not unless of course you are aligned with it in some way directly or indirectly.
> 
> PEN was once available on IGmarkets as long or short, now it is only available for "closing deals". Not sure about other CFD providers. What was/is the CFD providers source of stock?
> 
> The BOT is having a field day as retail holders sell as the BOT continues the multiple $20, $30, $40, $50, $60 trades every few minutes. This is done why? Certainly not for the benefit of shareholders. And why would anyone want to hold when it is plain as day it is in place to sell the stock down. Yes it is "testing direction" created by its own actions, selling down observers see as a negative and remain out (me) or sell. Buying up seen as a positive bringing in buyers and panic selling ceases.
> 
> I agree with one thing, the stock is headed down and the algorithm trading will continue to aid it significantly. The only ones that can't see this are those without live access and those that don't want to for whatever reason.
> 
> Seemingly plenty of algorithm trading supporters here, I wonder why?




In Jan, citi bought 515k shares and sold 509k
In dec citi bought and sold 332k

As with IG, they can internally hedge their positions with client longs. Since its pretty much all synthetic. When all the longs have bailed out, you can no longer short.

Back to the stock..
gap fill at 3.5 here we come


----------



## hangseng

skyQuake said:


> In Jan, citi bought 515k shares and sold 509k
> In dec citi bought and sold 332k
> 
> As with IG, they can internally hedge their positions with client longs. Since its pretty much all synthetic. When all the longs have bailed out, you can no longer short.
> 
> Back to the stock..
> gap fill at 3.5 here we come





Yes they can, but DMA isn't synthetic. No matter you can' go long or short on IG with PEN, you can only close existing postions.


----------



## dengo

Short term Hourly chart shows a Bollinger band squeeze meaning volatility is imminent
Price has been ranging between 3.7 - 3.9c recently in a rectangle continuation pattern
Slow Stochastic is currently overbought

Measured move target is 3.5c but could hit 3.4c if the move into the pattern is repeated


----------



## tech/a

dengo said:


> Short term Hourly chart shows a Bollinger band squeeze meaning volatility is imminent
> Price has been ranging between 3.7 - 3.9c recently in a rectangle continuation pattern
> Slow Stochastic is currently overbought
> 
> Measured move target is 3.5c but could hit 3.4c if the move into the pattern is repeated
> 
> View attachment 50822




Craziest analysis I've seen.
Attempting T/A on a barely liquid 
Hourly chart.--- Nuts.

Bollinger band squeeze --- please
It's nothing more than a displaced M/A.
Showing a record of PAST price movement.


----------



## Zubana

There appears a continuous wish to explain all we see in the most simplistic terms....."Citi did this, they must be shorting the stock"....."CommSec clients did that, they must be bailing wholesale".

Think of this in the same way you would buying your own investment property (not that I would by the way!).
 - you have a 10-15yr view; this is expected to be worth X at that point it time. You commit to that term.
 - in 5-8yrs time you will review; is it worth selling now...what are the pluses and minuses?
 - each month you will collect rent from your tenant, and each year end you will utilise the negative gearing and expense offsets.

So your investment property is relevant to your financial strategy at various levels, and on various timelines.

So too I believe is PEN to all the insto investors.
Fact: You don't get the quality of these instos putting money into your project if you're a joker. They can afford to be selective and do what feathers their own nests and their clients. Reality is if they can't do that then they go out of business.
Fact: They will look for the big payday at some future point in time, and in the interim they will play this so that it turns some profit. Money can't be sitting idle - there's an opportunity cost!
Fact: If you invest in PEN for a short period of time you may lose your shirt, or you may make a few multiples of your money in 12 months.

Likelihood: If you invest in PEN now and sit tight through the coming resurgence in uranium and nuclear power then you will do well in my view.

My strategy: I also don't like to sit and watch a share I bought at 5c turn into 3.5c for no obvious or good reason.
Pay attention, trade opportunistically in the short term, buy low - sell high, but stay on the bus 'cause it will all come good in due course. All IMHO.


----------



## tech/a

So in your view.

If an Insto is investing in a stock then its a sure sign that 
"At sometime" this stock is going to perform?

All we need do is find institutional investment 
and buy and wait.
Of course buying opportunistically.


----------



## Zubana

tech/a,
I can't imagine why an insto would invest if there was not that fundamental belief?

That said, we can't assume they would be right. It could turn out to be a dog, and on balance many stocks do so PEN would be one of their many plays in the market in an effort to manage the risk and exposure.

The tricky part here is that the insto investing in PEN is PALA, not necessarily their "nominee" Citicorp, similarly for Blackrock and theirs.

Ordinarily I'd contend that such a nominee may have only a short term objective in the stock, but if you look back to the days before the sharelending agreement between PALA and Citi, between March - May 2010 Citi increased their holding from just over 6 million shares to 90 million. Now I appreciate this was at a time that Uranium was going up rapidly, pre Fukushima, but there's no evidence they have divested that holding and I believe they are closet Uranium bulls


----------



## colossus

For what it's worth, i've had a look at the Dec 12 and Jan 13 Top 20's, there was negligible change, refer:


----------



## tech/a

Zubana said:


> tech/a,
> I can't imagine why an insto would invest if there was not that fundamental belief?
> 
> That said, we can't assume they would be right. It could turn out to be a dog, and on balance many stocks do so PEN would be one of their many plays in the market in an effort to manage the risk and exposure.
> 
> The tricky part here is that the insto investing in PEN is PALA, not necessarily their "nominee" Citicorp, similarly for Blackrock and theirs.
> 
> Ordinarily I'd contend that such a nominee may have only a short term objective in the stock, but if you look back to the days before the sharelending agreement between PALA and Citi, between March - May 2010 Citi increased their holding from just over 6 million shares to 90 million. Now I appreciate this was at a time that Uranium was going up rapidly, pre Fukushima, but there's no evidence they have divested that holding and I believe they are closet Uranium bulls




Well there is no doubt that if you were to accumulate
PEN it would be at these levels.
Return on Risk has the potential to be substantial.
Either the timing has to be perfect (as you could lose 100% gain finessing entry)
or sit there.


----------



## hangseng

colossus said:


> For what it's worth, i've had a look at the Dec 12 and Jan 13 Top 20's, there was negligible change, refer:





Col, you won't see a change in Citi Nominees holdings. They have a "Prime Brokerage" agreement in place and as such any change in holdings by the third party being UBS requires no disclosure by Citi or UBS. Read up on the Non-disclosure aspect of these agreements with ASIC rulings.

So although third parties could do as they wish with the shares they borrowed from Citi, there would be no change indicated in Citi's holdings in the Top 20. Unless Pala via Citi decided to sell shares then it would require disclosure as they are the "Owner", no evidence of that having occurred to date.

The secrecy surrounding these agreements flies in the  face of the ASX objective of a transparency in the market. If there was transparency we could all see what has happened with these shares due to Pala passing on to Citi as Nominee holder on their behalf, and the resultant Prime Brokerage agreement between Citi and UBS (see PEN announcements).

I would love to see the share movement data of UBS (and Citi Nominees) PEN holdings since this agreement went into place and the beneficiary fees that applied to the agreements relating to the PALA shares. But almost certainly that data would ever be available publicly. If it was then maybe once and for all the speculation would be over regarding share movements.


Today we have another outstanding fundamental change in PEN, and very little interest displayed. Maybe Mick's statement is coming home to roost and the damage has been done. Todays extremely positive announcement would have sent any other stock into a buying frenzy, instead with PEN just another fizzer.


----------



## Trembling Hand

hangseng said:


> I would love to see the share movement data of UBS (and Citi Nominees) PEN holdings since this agreement went into place and the beneficiary fees that applied to the agreements relating to the PALA shares. But almost certainly that data would ever be available publicly. If it was then maybe once and for all the speculation would be over regarding share movements.




I assume they have borrowed them to short? If so why wouldn't they show up on ASIC database of shorted stock?

Which they don't?

http://asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/Short+position+reports+table?openDocument


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> Col, you won't see a change in Citi Nominees holdings. They have a "Prime Brokerage" agreement in place and as such any change in holdings by the third party being UBS requires no disclosure by Citi or UBS. *Read up on the Non-disclosure aspect of these agreements with ASIC rulings.*




Link? Not sure what you're referring to.



> I would love to see the share movement data of UBS (and Citi Nominees) PEN holdings since this agreement went into place and the beneficiary fees that applied to the agreements relating to the PALA shares. But almost certainly that data would ever be available publicly. If it was then maybe once and for all the speculation would be over regarding share movements.




U mean with pala in Dec 2010?


----------



## Stormtrooper

Trembling Hand said:


> I assume they have borrowed them to short? If so why wouldn't they show up on ASIC database of shorted stock?
> 
> Which they don't?
> 
> http://asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/Short+position+reports+table?openDocument






---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trembling Hand,

Whilst they have borrowed the stock, they would be considered the owners of the stock. 

As such, selling that stock wouldn't be considered shorting (although they do have to purchase back at some point in time to hand back to the original owners).

I guess technically there is no short (ie if Pala were to sell & then buy back that isn't considered a short), although they would be submitting a number of change in substantial shareholders forms. 

No difference here except another party is the legal owner..........all in my opinion.

Stormtrooper


----------



## Trembling Hand

Stormtrooper what you have described is exactly the Technical process of shorting a stock. Thats how it works.


----------



## skyQuake

Stormtrooper said:


> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Trembling Hand,
> 
> Whilst they have borrowed the stock, they would be considered the owners of the stock.
> 
> As such, selling that stock wouldn't be considered shorting (although they do have to purchase back at some point in time to hand back to the original owners).
> 
> I guess technically there is no short (ie if Pala were to sell & then buy back that isn't considered a short), although they would be submitting a number of change in substantial shareholders forms.
> 
> No difference here except another party is the legal owner..........all in my opinion.
> 
> Stormtrooper




This is simply a stock lending agreement. They must disclose as per RG196



> Where a person (a seller) executes a short sale and relies on an _existing securities lending arrangement _to have a ‘presently exercisable and unconditional right to vest’ the products in the buyer at the time of the sale, the sale of the products is a covered short sale. Covered short selling is permitted under the Corporations Act 2001 (Corporations Act). For a detailed overview of the short selling provisions of the Corporations Act, please see Regulatory Guide 196 Short selling (RG 196).


----------



## hangseng

Trembling Hand said:


> Stormtrooper what you have described is exactly the Technical process of shorting a stock. Thats how it works.





It is no different from you being the "owner" or "holder" of 10m shares and decided to sell 5m, you don't have to report this sale as a "shortsell" position. You merely sold stock you held. If the sp drops and you buy it back at a lower price then good luck to you, but you have no obligation to buy back.

Yes technically that is shorting but the sale above requires no disclosure as "reportable shortsell" stock.

In the case of the Prime Brokerage agreement, if UBS sells stock then they MUST at some stage buy it back when the stock borrowed is handed back to the original owner (UBS back to Citi and then Citi back to PALA). That is about the only difference I can see.

I think Stormtrooper has it right.


----------



## Trembling Hand

hangseng said:


> It is no different from you being the "owner" or "holder" of 10m shares and decided to sell 5m, you don't have to report this sale as a "shortsell" position.




I do if I borrowed it from someone Off market!!


----------



## Stormtrooper

Trembling Hand said:


> I do if I borrowed it from someone Off market!!




-----------------------------

Maybe my understanding/reading of the Prime Brokerage Agreement is wrong.

Have you read it? 

It is attached to the 2nd June 2011 Notice Form 604 Change under Substantail Holding.

http://www.pel.net.au/news___announcements/general_announcements.phtml

Here's a couple of clauses, whats your take on these?

Thanks in advance.


----------



## bell diver

Announcement out
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/do...nZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw

50.1 MILLION POUND MAIDEN JORC CODE COMPLIANT
RESOURCE AT KAROO PROJECTS

Intersting there has been zero discussion on this. A slight blip from MR market but other then that nothing. I know alot have been waiting for this for some time as it was promised prior to xmas. Now its here not a murmer?? Is it that bad???


----------



## skyQuake

Its just a regular prime broker agreement. The fund (pala) enters into the custodian agreement, and the stock goes into a pool. UBS can now lend out that stock from the pool to short sell. Generally, if you locate stock from UBs, you'll have to place the order through UBS. Esp if the stock is hard to locate.

The short is then reported, because of the borrow was sourced from UBS.


----------



## Country Lad

skyQuake said:


> Its just a regular prime broker agreement. The fund (pala) enters into the custodian agreement, and the stock goes into a pool. UBS can now lend out that stock from the pool to short sell. Generally, if you locate stock from UBs, you'll have to place the order through UBS. Esp if the stock is hard to locate.
> 
> The short is then reported, because of the borrow was sourced from UBS.




Yes, difficult to understand what all the angst is about regarding this agreement, they are not uncommon and are relatively straight forward.  PEN stock very much talked about on forums and consequently can be volatile.  I expect that UBS is both playing with it themselves as well as lending it to others who play on all this mad unwarranted hype and UBS get the commission.

Nothing untoward, PEN is not the only one with such agreements.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

For some reason PEN is 2.56% down since the beginning of this month, and I lie 29th out of a field of 50 in the ASF Stock Tipping competition.

It will on a previously posted chart find support, in the low 0.03's , so I see no reason to be despondent at present.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> For some reason PEN is 2.56% down since the beginning of this month




Should my "dip in Feb" prediction play out its gonna get worse.



Good news for ya thou Garpul. Heres a chart displaying OBV trends being forerunners to Share Price trends.


----------



## followme

the problem with this stock is management. MD thinks he is a rock star/movie star with a package salary that is in the millions, really? the stock itself is a dog trading in the 3's.


----------



## colossus

followme said:


> the problem with this stock is management. MD thinks he is a rock star/movie star with a package salary that is in the millions, really? the stock itself is a dog trading in the 3's.




what constructive input, well said sir.


----------



## Jewels

Looks like everything is lining up for PEN except the market cap.!
I'm wondering does anybody know why PEN commentary has been canned on the other Blogg?
I've seen the official statement, just wondering what went on behind closed doors..... if you know what I mean.
Thanks. J


----------



## hangseng

Jewels said:


> Looks like everything is lining up for PEN except the market cap.!





The BOT still holding the SP back despite many positive announcements....one can only speculate as to why?

My system one gave up long ago and system two was in overdrive trying to analyse why. Now I don't care, I will buy when the negative BOT activity ceases, PEN and the U price display a definite +ve sentiment turn and gg wins the monthly comp on PEN...the latter must be the most keenly watched and sought after indicator


----------



## Karlos68

Jewels said:


> I'm wondering does anybody know why PEN commentary has been canned on the other Blogg?
> I've seen the official statement, just wondering what went on behind closed doors..... if you know what I mean.
> Thanks. J




Jewels, that other forum was warned a while back that critical comment was not welcome and the forum shall be observed by legal representatives of PEN.

Seemed that the regular knockers of PEN management do not understand that penny stocks are in a downtrend and this is not due to management but general market sentiment. You only need to look at many small cap tops early 2011 and observe the similar downtrends in Share Price since. 

I did warn them to show management some respect. Did they listen?:bonk:

I feel the demise of the other forum is beneficial to the well being of many an individuals sanity.:iagree:

Thankfully ASF is down to earth


----------



## dengo

Broken support line tested from beneath & rejected on the weekly chart last week
Bearish MACD signal line cross *and* center line cross appear imminent...


----------



## Karlos68

Opps...Couple JBs tonight



Jewels said:


> does anybody know why PEN commentary has been canned on the other Blogg?




Jewels, Joe Blow our Moderator has been specific recently that no comment is to be made regarding other forums.

I understand completely as a standard must be adhered to otherwise we may fall from grace into a forum of disrepute.


PS dengo.....Cheers for the update


----------



## Jewels

Appreciate you getting back to me Karlos68. Thanks


----------



## didier85

gap at 3.5c about to be filled maybe... however this is really underperforming the market 

all comes down to the Uranium price I guess


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Love PEN. Full of repetitive movements.
> Have picked up a pattern beginning 2008/2009. Approx 9 month divisions showing significant lows. Even divided to 4.5 month spaces shows lows.
> As Fib Fan broadens, time increases to reach high and low trendlines.
> With combination of broadening fan and 9 month divisions....My forward prediction is a dip in Feb 2013 and final low for this cycle in June/July 2013.
> 
> View attachment 50163




Hi didlier85....Will get worse than 3.5 cents buddy.

Lets rock back to start of Oct 2012, was a dip mate.......4 and a half months on is about now:casanova:........My prediction is the dip is occuring as we speak......


Praise The Lord


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

There are many who mock PEN.

I am an optimist and have put my reputation, such as it is, on the line in this month's stock picking competition on a win picking PEN.

38.	Garpal Gumnut	PEN	0.039  	-0.003	-7.69%

I now lie 38th in a field of 50.

PEN observers such as I are not influenced by better returns on other ASX stocks as the XAO powers through 5000.

I did predict in posts above that PEN may retreat to the low 0.03's before it comes good.

I still hold to that hopeful expectation.

gg


----------



## colossus

GG,

You may still be on the money if the chartists thoughts and analysis are worth a grain of salt.
There has long been talk about the gap from December at 3.5c that needed to be closed.  
Now if charts, chartists and gaps are to have any sort of reliability, once 3.5c gets hit the gap will be closed and we should be away - will the chartists who profess to know all be right?  We may well know by the end of today.


----------



## followme

it was a toss up between buying pen or Blr last week. thank god i chose BLR.
My chart shows some support at 2.8c for Pen and will be worth a punt then. I canty figure why this one keeps sliding..


----------



## Country Lad

followme said:


> My chart shows some support at 2.8c for Pen and will be worth a punt then. I can't figure why this one keeps sliding..




If you listen carefully, the sound of it barking may give you a clue.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

colossus said:


> GG,
> 
> You may still be on the money if the chartists thoughts and analysis are worth a grain of salt.
> There has long been talk about the gap from December at 3.5c that needed to be closed.
> Now if charts, chartists and gaps are to have any sort of reliability, once 3.5c gets hit the gap will be closed and we should be away - will the chartists who profess to know all be right?  We may well know by the end of today.




Wise words, colossus, PEN gained some today. 

Looking at the weekly it still has buyers and sellers, and a support at a 0 number or a number ending in 5 seems to be the pattern of this stock, long term.

Who knows where it will go?

A weekly over 1 year.

It would not surprise me to see it go up, nor down, there is no direction at present.

Willing sellers and willing buyers are there though.






gg


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Short term Hourly chart shows a Bollinger band squeeze meaning volatility is imminent
> Price has been ranging between 3.7 - 3.9c recently in a rectangle continuation pattern
> Slow Stochastic is currently overbought
> Measured move target is 3.5c but could hit 3.4c if the move into the pattern is repeated
> 
> View attachment 50822




She hit the 3.4c target today - bit later than expected but for the "50.1Mlb Maiden JORC" announcement...zzzzzzzz...
Post Fukushima comparison chart FYI


----------



## followme

beat me to it. An intraday low of 3.4c shows where this one is heading with lower lows..


----------



## dengo

didier85 said:


> all comes down to the Uranium price I guess




"Uranium Returns To Weakness...

...The soft prices came as little surprise to commodities analysts at Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), who suggest *there is still too much supply in the uranium market*. The bank has moved to lower its uranium price forecast by 9% in FY13, by 12% in FY14 and by 2% for FY15"

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/436564/20130219/uranium-returns-to-weakness.htm#.USMEbmcRyJs


----------



## colossus

if the CBA says it's going to be weak, that's a signal to get in.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

colossus said:


> if the CBA says it's going to be weak, that's a signal to get in.




Good advice colossus.

I am only 10.46% down on PEN in the Competition and am 36th out of 50.

I do believe I was lower.

Is PEN climbing?

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Good advice colossus.
> 
> I am only 10.46% down on PEN in the Competition and am 36th out of 50.
> 
> I do believe I was lower.
> 
> Is PEN climbing?
> 
> gg





3.5c and unfortunately falling...depending on individual point of view. I said It would fall if the BOT continued and has done. IMO until it stops the fall will continue but one last fantastic opportunity will arise if it does.

Picking for March as well gg? A test of faith ;-)


----------



## flashman1207

What are the next milestones and dates. Anyone know? Seems very quiet on the HQ front....


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> She hit the 3.4c target today - bit later than expected but for the "50.1Mlb Maiden JORC" announcement...zzzzzzzz...
> Post Fukushima comparison chart FYI
> 
> View attachment 51010




That's an awesome looking cup and handle on the BLR comparison chart.


----------



## yuro

flashman1207 said:


> What are the next milestones and dates. Anyone know? Seems very quiet on the HQ front....




Hi flashman1207, HQ are very busy!
Some milestones for you.
Final safety evaluation report---Feb 28th, 2013.
Draft supplemental environmental impact statement---March 29th, 2013.
Final SEIS---Due to be issued on November 4th, 2013.


----------



## flashman1207

yuro said:


> Hi flashman1207, HQ are very busy!
> Some milestones for you.
> Final safety evaluation report---Feb 28th, 2013.
> Draft supplemental environmental impact statement---March 29th, 2013.
> Final SEIS---Due to be issued on November 4th, 2013.




Has construction started yet?


----------



## colossus

yuro said:


> Hi flashman1207, HQ are very busy!
> Some milestones for you.
> Final safety evaluation report---Feb 28th, 2013.
> Draft supplemental environmental impact statement---March 29th, 2013.
> Final SEIS---Due to be issued on November 4th, 2013.




Hi Yuro,

I note that you are very specific with your date for the Draft SEIS, more so than the NRC Review Schedule for Ross which leaves it open as 03/2013 - is there a link between the Final SER and the Draft SEIS with regards to timing?

Many thanks,

Regards,

Col


----------



## yuro

colossus said:


> Hi Yuro,
> 
> I note that you are very specific with your date for the Draft SEIS, more so than the NRC Review Schedule for Ross which leaves it open as 03/2013 - is there a link between the Final SER and the Draft SEIS with regards to timing?
> 
> Many thanks,
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Col




Hi Col, there isnt any link that I know of. I have had the 29th March noted for some time (after the NRC updated there review schedule).
This morning I watched a NRC Commisioner stand and state that Strata will receive the final SER shortly and the final SEIS this calender year. 
Flashman, I don't know if any construction has taken place, I doubt it.
Cheers


----------



## flashman1207

yuro said:


> Hi Col, there isnt any link that I know of. I have had the 29th March noted for some time (after the NRC updated there review schedule).
> This morning I watched a NRC Commisioner stand and state that Strata will receive the final SER shortly and the final SEIS this calender year.
> Flashman, I don't know if any construction has taken place, I doubt it.
> Cheers




Thanks Yuro


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> ...once 3.5c gets hit the gap will be closed and we should be away - will the chartists who profess to know all be right?  We may well know by the end of today.




We're away all right!
Haven't seen any charts anywhere stating 3.5c would be the end of this slide.
Anyway, today's gap will be the target of the next pump - after it hits the continuation flag's target in the low 2s


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> "Uranium Returns To Weakness"
> 
> http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/436564/20130219/uranium-returns-to-weakness.htm#.USMEbmcRyJs




"A Japanese nuclear power company has taken the rare step of selling some of its uranium, apparently to help repay loans amid its *faltering business conditions*...

...it is likely the company returned it to the seller...it likely meant selling the uranium for less than the import price"

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/21/national/japan-atomic-power-takes-rare-step-of-selling-uranium-to-pay-off-loans/#.USXfuFcRyJs


----------



## didier85

so is anyone shortselling this?


----------



## Country Lad

didier85 said:


> so is anyone shortselling this?




The short selling of PEN has been discussed before and I doubt anybody here is short selling and certainly not to an extent of affecting the price.  

It has been suggested before that significant short selling by UBS is occurring, but there is no evidence of this.  There may have been some of playing with it as UBS buys and sells depending on the market for the day, but that is about all.  Over the last 12 days for which the data is available, UBS was active only twice, as a buyer on one day and seller the other.

Today's higher turnover was likely just the market's bad day.

Let's face it, why would anybody want to short sell this piddly little company, particularly when the average turnover in the last 10 days has been only about $75,000.  Far more leverage and certainty of success in other companies.  

Based on the lower turnover over the recent period, it appears the drop in price is simply a lack of interest - I can relate to that.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## colossus

yuro said:


> Hi Col, there isnt any link that I know of. I have had the 29th March noted for some time (after the NRC updated there review schedule).
> This morning I watched a NRC Commisioner stand and state that Strata will receive the final SER shortly and the final SEIS this calender year.
> Flashman, I don't know if any construction has taken place, I doubt it.
> Cheers




Hi Yuro,

Thanks for your response.  One more question if I may, where were you when the above happened?  It looks as though they are committing to the scheduled timelines as they now stand.  You probably can't say but was there any indication of bettering the schedule?
Sorry, that was two questions.

Thanks,

Col.


----------



## yuro

colossus said:


> Hi Yuro,
> 
> Thanks for your response.  One more question if I may, where were you when the above happened?  It looks as though they are committing to the scheduled timelines as they now stand.  You probably can't say but was there any indication of bettering the schedule?
> Sorry, that was two questions.
> 
> Thanks,
> 
> Col.




Col, the SER and SEIS comments were actually made by Bill Von Till chief of the Uranium Recovery Licensing Branch, my mistake.
Every couple of years the NRC holds a briefing on uranium recovery, the last one yesterday was web cast live and is available below if you have a few hours spare.

http://video.nrc.gov/

Well worth listening to as it covers every aspect of the complexities involved in the ISR industry in the USA and Wyoming in particular. All interested parties are represented including the NRDC, Indians etc. Also gives a good rundown on supply and the known resource in America and worldwide.


----------



## colossus

yuro said:


> Col, the SER and SEIS comments were actually made by Bill Von Till chief of the Uranium Recovery Licensing Branch, my mistake.
> Every couple of years the NRC holds a briefing on uranium recovery, the last one yesterday was web cast live and is available below if you have a few hours spare.
> 
> http://video.nrc.gov/
> 
> Well worth listening to as it covers every aspect of the complexities involved in the ISR industry in the USA and Wyoming in particular. All interested parties are represented including the NRDC, Indians etc. Also gives a good rundown on supply and the known resource in America and worldwide.




thanks Yuro,

i'll try to find the time (and a comfy chair) over the weekend.

much appreciated,

regards,

col


----------



## Karlos68

Flip:cowboy:...March is drawing near.....Concerned about my "Dip In feb" prediction based on my chart from late last year.



Decided to take a close up analysis to define a probable expectation of a due dip....Sweet as fellas...Karlos has done it again....Check this out


Approx 9 month spans are slightly larger, exact mid red dash lines (approx little over 4 and half month divisions) show final Share Price low occurs after mid point, as is also RSI. Still on track fellas.....Appears from this "Up Close Chart"  thou that SP low point shall be revised to hit a dip low in early March


----------



## didier85

those charts would give you a target of what - something like 1.5c during the year?


----------



## Karlos68

didier85 said:


> those charts would give you a target of what - something like 1.5c during the year?




My expectation is for the Share Price to touch the lowest ascendng trendline which appears to be around 2 cents come June/July, possibly August.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I am now 42nd out of 49 in the stock competition holding PEN.

It looks as if it is dropping like a rock from my entry at .39c at the beginning of February, a total loss of 17.95%.

gg


----------



## colossus

just keep picking it GG, it's bound to go up eventually (but it may take until the end of the year) and then you will win the comp.


----------



## tech/a

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am now 42nd out of 49 in the stock competition holding PEN.
> 
> It looks as if it is dropping like a rock from my entry at .39c at the beginning of February, a total loss of 17.95%.
> 
> gg




But GG

The opportunity to buy up BIG has never been better.
infact the whizz predicts 1.5c!!! 
Wow never been better to Dollar Cost Average.


----------



## didier85

is today's announcement described as "board enhancing" the employment of another "friend" for a fat salary, when there's far from any need for more employees? it doesn't say he has any uranium specific background - more just that he's another WA mining boy - and maybe an old friend of gus.

meanwhile malcolm james goes from being a director to a consultant (1000/day isn't unreasonable for this kind of service) where he can show up a few days a week now and get the same income...

cmon guys - how about produce growth the the share price!

or will they just continue to dilute share holdings and palm out fat salaries until the next uranium bull run makes mining feasible (at $40/lb it currently is hardly profitable)


----------



## qldfrog

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am now 42nd out of 49 in the stock competition holding PEN.
> 
> It looks as if it is dropping like a rock from my entry at .39c at the beginning of February, a total loss of 17.95%.
> 
> gg



even with relaxed margin, my system told me to sell yesterdayah well may win next time


----------



## bell diver

So Pen gets added to the all ords index and nothing happens, not even 1 trade today??

I remember last time this happened there was talk about how funds would be forced to buy pen that track the all ords and there was much fan fare?? Today nothing??


----------



## colossus

bell diver said:


> So Pen gets added to the all ords index and nothing happens, not even 1 trade today??
> 
> I remember last time this happened there was talk about how funds would be forced to buy pen that track the all ords and there was much fan fare?? Today nothing??




i'd rather have no trades and be even for the day - most of my watchlist is RED


----------



## Jewels

Looks like PEN is stagnating with the Uranium price.  We know commodities are cyclical, so over the next 12 months we should expect a uranium price rise, then a capital raising, further dilution, followed by a takeover from one of the top 20.
I've turned from positive to negative on this stock, not from the resource in hand, but what appears to be machinations from behind closed doors.
Be interesting to revisit this post in 12 months and see how the crystal ball performs.
Ciao.


----------



## Stormtrooper

Jewels said:


> Looks like PEN is stagnating with the Uranium price.  We know commodities are cyclical, so over the next 12 months we should expect a uranium price rise, then a capital raising, further dilution, followed by a takeover from one of the top 20.
> I've turned from positive to negative on this stock, not from the resource in hand, but what appears to be machinations from behind closed doors.
> Be interesting to revisit this post in 12 months and see how the crystal ball performs.
> Ciao.




Hi Jewels,

Do you have a spreadsheet/timetime?

Was interested in seeing what outflows & when current capital will expire. Don't forget the $22M due (conditions apply 

Will the further capital raising / dilution be to get Lance operational, or are you referrring to completeing Karoo (Reit Kuil contract - still has a few hurdles to overcome before unconditional) or is the the Australian purchase that the capital raising will be requried for.

Doesn't need to be to involved.

FWIW - my take (warning don't read as it may contain conflicting views  ) ,if timelines for GEIS/SEIS is met (as they were for SER) then SML being issued this year is high & as such PEN taking that giant leap from explorer to producer & jointing an elite group (from memory 9 U producers inthe world control 90% of the ore mined.) will result in a rerating. 

http://www.proedgewire.com/nuclear-energy-intel/concentration-in-the-uranium-mining-sector/

Prior to this with GEIS/SEIS issued & certain sale contractural obligation met will result in a further $22m inthe kitty.

Dilution to get to producer is something I can live with if the end result will be the birth of a cashflow positive entity.

Thanks


----------



## colossus

stormtrooper,
the "big 9" will no doubt have their eyes and ears on the progress of any potential newbies to U mining, does this again raise the "potential takeover target" conversation?  
in any case, the interest will increase as the progress towards all permits gets closer IMO.


----------



## Stormtrooper

colossus said:


> stormtrooper,
> the "big 9" will no doubt have their eyes and ears on the progress of any potential newbies to U mining, does this again raise the "potential takeover target" conversation?
> in any case, the interest will increase as the progress towards all permits gets closer IMO.




Hi Col,

With the SER issued & updated on ADAMS over the weekend (& on time to I might add ), it makes a good first step.

Just need the GEIS/SEIS as per timeline & we are in a position to tick the last box for SML & we will then be 'considered' as a producer...would have to be a positive...wouldn't it?


Regards


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> The opportunity to buy up BIG has never been better.



:bs:



Decided to have a mess around with a Monthly Candle chart.
Note the break in Williams %R trendline is a safe long term entry point.



Awesome news is Share Price touches lower trendline a few months before Williams %R break.
June/July, possibly August low is still looking hot fellas:bananasmi


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I now lie 16th in the ASF Competition with my PEN pick.

For those with a fundamentalist bent I was recently sent a link by a Swedish friend who trades U within the EU.



> ESA quarterly spot uranium price
> 
> Starting from 2011, ESA publishes a spot price indicator on a quarterly basis, provided that there are at least three spot contracts concluded by the EU utilities (excluding exchanges and loans), and that the price indicated is fixed and not expressed as a formula.
> 
> 
> ESA average uranium prices
> 
> 
> ESA quarterly spot uranium price
> EUR/kgU 	ESA quarterly spot uranium price
> USD/lb U3O8 	Number of spot natural uranium contracts concluded by EU utilities (including purchases, sales, exchanges and loans)
> Q1 2011 	118.80 	62.51 	6
> Q2 2011 	101.17 	56.00 	6
> Q3 2011 	n/a 	n/a 	4
> Q4 2011 	n/a 	n/a 	6
> Q1+Q2 2012 	97.53 	48.64 	6
> Q3 2012 	n/a 	n/a 	0
> 
> Disclaimer: the statistics and data analysis provided by ESA are for information purposes only. ESA does not bear legal liability for making use of them. ESA ensures confidentiality and physical protection of the commercial data.
> 
> 
> Methodology
> 
> To calculate the quarterly average price (simple average), the original contract prices are converted, using the quarterly average exchange rate published by the European Central Bank, into EUR per kilogram of uranium in the chemical form U3O8.
> 
> To establish a price which excludes the conversion cost if it was not specified, ESA applies a calculated quarterly average conversion spot price indicator (based on conversion price indicators provided by consulting companies).
> 
> The date of signature by ESA is considered as the contract date.




It means bugger all to me, but the fundamentalists may have an update on the Uranium price, and forward projections.

gg


----------



## Stormtrooper

colossus said:


> stormtrooper,
> the "big 9" will no doubt have their eyes and ears on the progress of any potential newbies to U mining, does this again raise the "potential takeover target" conversation?
> in any case, the interest will increase as the progress towards all permits gets closer IMO.




Hi Col,

Whilst not PEN related, it is related by proximity. 

Interesting article of the expected U price rise & USA needng to produce more U. 

Touches on URZ (ISL mines in Wyoming) could be a target for Camevo or U One who operate inthe Powder RIver Basinin Wyoming

" Look for producers and near term producers in the United States who are fully permitted.  U.S. utilities need a major increase of uranium mining to power its 104 reactors or else the lights could go out.

One company I have been bullish on for some time as I believe it may be a critical part of the U.S. uranium supply solution is Uranerz Energy (URZ) who is in construction of the Nichols Ranch Project.  The project should be completed this year and for some time I have believed that URZ could be a target for Cameco or Uranium One who operate nearby in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2...ghtest-spot-right-now-in-the-resource-sector/


----------



## hangseng

Not saying that PEN has had the same treatment outlined in this detailed research report (although I believe PEN has been subject to at least some of this activity) provided on another forum. However it puts paid to the theory that trades (short or long) would only show up as UBS or Citi Nominees. It could be any number of brokers aligned with the Prime Brokerage agreement. As we can't get data relating to the Prime Brokerage agreement it can't be proved nor disproved.

It does display how anyone aligned with this activity would find supportive argument for Securities Lending agreements (Prime Brokerage agreements such as in place with PALA shares), algorithm trading and broker "dark pools".

How can it be that trades go through when the stock is in voluntary suspension? Why is it short trades can go through with being reported?

Worth a read for those inclined to....Would love to see a detailed analysis of PEN trading such as this one since the Prime Brokerage agreement was put in place between UBS and Citi Nominees over PALA shares.

Credit to "Ritchie" on "X" forum.


_"Although not related to PEN, this information may be of interest to many. Found this on another forum on a different stock, but it may be relevant to PEN's situation (or maybe not you can all make up your own mind).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/129258881...-to-CDU-LYC-BBG-and-EGP?in_collection=4167210 

 Ritchie" _


An excellent summary of the above report (full report is 86 pages) from another person to me offline:

_"The fact that manipulation is difficult to prove and prosecute shouldn’t prevent wider acknowledgement that market manipulation on the ASX does in fact exist and is sanctioned by the system of governance in place. 
It manifests in a variety of ways as has been outlined in research pertaining to CuDeco where fund managers acting through groups of brokers and where sympathetic brokers acting in their own right can exercise control over pricing levels through: 


The extensive use of proprietary trading algorithms and which have resulted in; 

Down Tick anomalism that consistently defies statistical norms and suggests a high degree of manipulation in forcing lower prices, and 

Dominance over the setting of prices during pre-trade and close-of-trade auctions; 

The selling of shares back and forth to themselves (i.e. trading churn) with large orders distributed amongst a large number of brokers thus camouflaging the activity; 
The re-balancing of holdings without price discovery through extensive off-market transfers and through trades executed in dark pool venues; 

Using the system of short selling as a manipulative trading tool whereby downward pressure on the share prices occurs through short selling in the market and where adjustments to short exposures are done off-market where price discovery is avoided. The activity suggests collusion by those with short exposure and those who are willing to supply shares off-market to reduce those exposures; 

Wrong footing and panicking retail investors through tactics such as deliberately selling down announcements that herald major developments for the company; 

Panicking investors by using large buy bids to support the price and then suddenly selling into them to give the appearance of price weakness but where the buying and selling has been between related entities; 

Capitalizing on trading volatility by engineering price falls in trading between themselves (e.g. Aug18, 2010) and thereby triggering the margin limits of exposed investors and creating irrational panic amongst retail investors thereby leading to accelerated price falls; 

Camouflaging extensive levels of wash trades by putting many of the trades through brokers with large numbers of retail clients; 

Taking advantage of a settlement system where the brokers used for high volume institutional wash trades are not identified on the register, thus further camouflaging their trading activity; 

Taking advantage of unreliable reporting systems to disguise trading activity as evidenced by substantial changes in short positions not being matched by corresponding changes in stock lending& stock borrowing data, and where for example a large increase in open positions is usually not reflected on the register by corresponding falls in the lenders holding"
_

PEN positive announcements continue and the stock continues to drift downward. Why is it such an unloved "dog stock" (not my term) so close to final permit issue and production garners so much forum attention and the attention of algorithm (BOT) trading? Why would they bother?


----------



## didier85

Do you think its possible management are involved in these activities then? I've noticed alot of upticks in volume and price just before the biggest announcements the last couple years (around nov-dec) with the final permits and the 2011 'imminent' dfs...

but along these points, on manipulation/shortselling etc, I personally believe part of the markets'/indices rises this year is much to do with shorts being burned and being forced to buy, as much as good economic news and money printing stimulus etc.

that may be why there's a way to go in the markets this year, despite it being overpriced.

meanwhile the material sector in australia and specs like PEN continue to be beaten down, if not just from shortselling but quite possibly, even in the majority of cases, activities mentioned in this report.


----------



## hangseng

didier85 said:


> Do you think its possible management are involved in these activities then?





No idea, nor am I implying they are or aren't. I do believe they surely must have knowledge of the Prime Brokerage agreement in place as it was announced by PEN on 3 occasions that I found, with PEN website links to them posted here. If they aren't aware of the terms and conditions of the agreement, especially in relation to what UBS can do thereafter (shorting, loan to other parties etc) under the agreement, I would also be very surprised.

In my opinion the UBS/Citi Nominees Prime Brokerage agreement (of the PALA shares held by Citi), along with aspects your put forward made for the perfect storm in a negative manner relating to the PEN sp.

The more I have looked at other companies that had securities lending agreements in place the more I believe they offer absolutely no benefit to long term investors in a stock, in fact IMO they are highly detrimental, regardless of being legal. They are secretive and fly in the face of the so called "open and transparent market" mantra of the ASX, as do BOTs, dark pools etc.

As nobody can 100% identify what UBS has done with the stock under this agreement, the detrimental affects can't be proved nor can they be disproved. However the relevant clause of the agreement displays clearly what UBS can do with this stock at their will unabated.

IMO it is simply naÃ¯ve to believe UBS have simply held this stock (PALA stock) in caretaker mode for Citi Nominees. IMO they would have traded the hell out of it (including loaning to other parties) since the agreements inception 2 years ago. 

Just in case a certain forum posters self proclaimed "TSI" proves to be correct I placed a 4m order at 1.9c, that may or may not get filled. Not for one minute do I believe he has a "TSI", but he has been suprisingly accurate to many (only on PEN) implying something other may be the case. If does then it will be an outstanding entry point on PEN and I will then be holding for the inevitable ride back up. However I won't be buying just yet whilst the BOT trades away at the stock.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I have noted many naysayers creep in to this thread.

I am even 8th, with five others in the ASF Stockpicking competition, not bad in this climate. No gain no loss since the beginning of March. Not a bad show compared to other miners.

Why do people like to knock PEN, a brave explorer of uranium with a scintillatingly talented board and team?

Less of the negativity please.

gg


----------



## yuro

Hey Col, good to see the DSEIS come in early. Only eight days ahead of schedual but better than eight days late!
The 45 day public comment period begins following publication of a notice in the Federal Register which is now expected on March 29th.. With the great team we have in Wyoming everything is going a little better than expected imo.

In the Matter of
Strata Energy, Inc. (Ross In Situ Recovery Uranium Project)
Docket No. 40-9091-MLA; ASLBP No. 12-915-01-MLA-BD01
Dear Administrative Judges:
On December 10, 2012, the Staff notified the Board that it was extending the issuance date of its Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (DSEIS) to March 29, 2013. The Board issued a revised general schedule for this proceeding on December 11, 2012 reflecting the Staff’s revised DSEIS issuance date. The Staff is hereby notifying the Board that its DSEIS was issued and made publicly available today, March 21, 2013. It can be accessed in ADAMS at Accession No. ML13078A036. The Staff has notified the parties that the DSEIS is publicly available and has provided them with the Accession number.
Respectfully submitted,


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Can anyone explain why I am 17th in the ASF Stock Pick Competition this month and PEN is more than 6% down.

Is it a DAWG?

gg


----------



## colossus

Yuro, i wonder if we'll get an announcement soon re the early works construction as eluded to in the optimisation update announcement.

GG, do you mean DAWG - Dammed Awesome When (it) Gets (there) - i.e.when they get all the Approvals.


----------



## Karlos68

PEN aint no DAWG.

PEN is trending down GG.

Still on track for my mid year low prediction


----------



## madjohn

Karlos68 said:


> PEN aint no DAWG.
> 
> PEN is trending down GG.
> 
> Still on track for my mid year low prediction
> 
> View attachment 51522




karlos no big deal -daily turnover is small -kids play-if you watch the play -you know someone is deliberatey selling it down-kiwis has small brain.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Can someone tell me exactly.

1. What PEN do.
2. How competent management is.
3. How are they slaves to the Uranium price.
4. When they are next going to market to dilute present shareholders.

gg


----------



## Zubana

1. Presently a prospector for Uranium deposits - Wyoming, USA and Karoo, South Africa, and at some not too distant point another tenement in Australia? In the next 18 months a producer of yellowcake. Now would be the time to buy and hold.
2. IMHO management here is an 8-9/10. Nobody's perfect, but there's impressive depth of experience and capability. High levels of comfort on this one.
3. Usual leverage situation to the underlying commodity. At current spot price they're break even. At current contract price their gross margins are circa 50% (say it's $40/lb and sell at $60/lb). Add 15% to Uranium price (now $70) - their margin goes to 75%; ie 15% U price increase; 25% profit increase.....capisce!
4. Not before Jan/Feb 2014 based on present cash burn + available reserves.

This may appear a dawg, but it is in fact a diamond in the rough that will emerge over the next 3-4yrs.


----------



## Karlos68

madjohn said:


> if you watch the play -you know someone is deliberatey selling it down-kiwis has small brain.




Another forum (that received a good baseball bat kneecapping) had members who concluded a suspended forum  member by the name of El Capo  manipulated the share price to hit 7.5 cents approx a year ago.  The reason they felt he did this was due to himself predicting a month beforehand he felt 7.5 cents would be the high for the rally and in turn would create himself status on the forum due to nailing the high.
Incredibly this conspiracy theory got some traction, I thought it was ludicrous as I feel El Capo simply used a Fib retracement to predict the high.
As it appears you firmly feel someone is manipulating the SP madjohn, do you have a suspects name or telephone number so I can phone this individual to ask the hard ass questions and report back my findings to the forum

If you should wish to continue to back your arguements with comments as "kiwis has small brain", watch this video.


----------



## yuro

Hi Col, I haven't enquired about early construction as yet although I would think the Wyoming summer would be the ideal time to lay foundations, drill DDW's etc. In my opinion the path forward has been rigorously thought out and the minutest details taken care of.
Strata has always thought well ahead, Gus at first as evidenced by the recruitment of Ralph Knode CEO of Strata, who recently was  Director of Operations and Construction for a joint venture between Cameco and Kazatomprom.
Then there is Mike Griffen with 35 years experience in the industry, his HSE background will be invaluable. Also, he has been through the NRC License Amendment process with another company, which will be very handy for Kendrick/ Barber.
Michael Butcher, our CFO and a former local county administrator deals with the local governments ( most important). He's probably responsible for the recent scholarships offered to Crook County graduates and Moorcroft sponsorship of family nights etc. Strata has excellent ongoing local relationships in my opinion.
Michael Borst VP of Geology." His ISR-specific experience includes geology management services from development and delineation drilling to wellfield design and construction, wellfield operations, and reclamation. He has managed planning, budgeting, and supervision of project exploration activities across Wyoming and Western Nebraska, helping to identify and evaluate new production center prospects. Mr. Brost also has extensive experience in landowner and regulatory relations."
With these men in place and the IDB's, if successful, becoming available within months I can see Ross area being a hive of activity in the third quarter.
In the meantime there is Karoo..


----------



## madjohn

Karlos68 said:


> Another forum (that received a good baseball bat kneecapping) had members who concluded a suspended forum  member by the name of El Capo  manipulated the share price to hit 7.5 cents approx a year ago.  The reason they felt he did this was due to himself predicting a month beforehand he felt 7.5 cents would be the high for the rally and in turn would create himself status on the forum due to nailing the high.
> Incredibly this conspiracy theory got some traction, I thought it was ludicrous as I feel El Capo simply used a Fib retracement to predict the high.
> As it appears you firmly feel someone is manipulating the SP madjohn, do you have a suspects name or telephone number so I can phone this individual to ask the hard ass questions and report back my findings to the forum
> 
> If you should wish to continue to back your arguements with comments as "kiwis has small brain", watch this video.






his name is wong fatt -phone no -o4 -9888888 ,do give him a call.


----------



## Karlos68

madjohn said:


> his name is wong fatt -phone no -o4 -9888888 ,do give him a call.




Tried on several occasions and as soon as Ive dailed I get "Call Ended".
I have just rang my phone provider Vodafone to got to the bottom of this, they dailed the number for myself and have told me the number does not exist.

Conclusion-One of the PEN crazies rang Wong Fatt, found his location, kicked is his door and shot the place up:badass:, simply because the lost soul felt an inner need to lay blame on someone for a downtrending share price:twak:

RIP Wong Fatt


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Tried on several occasions and as soon as Ive dailed I get "Call Ended".
> I have just rang my phone provider Vodafone to got to the bottom of this, they dailed the number for myself and have told me the number does not exist.
> 
> Conclusion-One of the PEN crazies rang Wong Fatt, found his location, kicked is his door and shot the place up:badass:, simply because the lost soul felt an inner need to lay blame on someone for a downtrending share price:twak:
> 
> RIP Wong Fatt




Confucius say

A Fatt is never Wong.

Seriously though, is PEN still being manipulated, and what are brokers saying about it's prospects?

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Seriously though, is PEN still being manipulated, and what are brokers saying about it's prospects?




I personally have never taken notice of broker reports:nono:

As for being manipulated, sounds much the same to me as the past nonsense "Oh no, PEN is in a downtrend because of Fukushima" or "Oh no, PEN is downtrending because management have missed targets"
I feel it is just another excuse/conspiracy theory as to why a SP maybe downtrending to reassure oneself that someone/something is to blame.
Since early 2011 resource stocks topped and have been downtrending. Seems hard commodities have had a thump this past week. Resource stocks losing value and PEN dropped from low 3 cents to high 2 cents.  Im sure Wong Fatt  never rang everyone else and told them to manipulate Gold, Oil, Copper etc and resource stocks downward. I think it is just another crazy theory:screwy:. I do note a Bot at times, whether this is being used to attempt to manipulate or not,  I feel its best to consult the charts than look for blame.

My projection for a sub 2 cent low is still on track. Just 2/3 months to go. PEN only need lose another cent. I expect resource stocks in general to bottom around this period and new long term uptrends to begin.

Have a good weekend GG:bekloppt:


----------



## dengo

Bear flag measured move target = 2.3c
Volume?


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Bear flag measured move target = 2.3c
> Volume?
> 
> View attachment 51653




Nice chart dengo.  

If your first blue vertical line was drawn higher than 5 cents upto 5.5 cents to work your measured move, I believe we should therefore have the falling vertical line drop additional .5 cent to 1.8 cents. 

Question: Why does the first blue vertical line not run to the high of 5.5 cent?


----------



## tech/a

Flag?

You make it up as you go?


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> Nice chart dengo.
> 
> If your first blue vertical line was drawn higher than 5 cents upto 5.5 cents to work your measured move, I believe we should therefore have the falling vertical line drop additional .5 cent to 1.8 cents.
> 
> Question: Why does the first blue vertical line not run to the high of 5.5 cent?




Thanks Karlos,
Squint your eyes, if you believe the run from 5.5 to 3.4c looks like a flagpole then go with it, you may be right.
Charting is a lot easier than some portray...


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> if you believe the run from 5.5 to 3.4c looks like a flagpole then go with it, you may be right.



I queried yourself as you may have had a strong reason to work from 5 cents.

I thought I had read about a year earlier the move is measured from high to low (being 5.5 to 3.4). 
I have just done some light Google research and my findings are as I believe to be 5.5 to 3.4 cent, which projects a move to 1.8 cents.
This bodes well with my previous analysis from last year that we shall see sub 2 cents


----------



## madjohn

karlos -wong fatt told me -we won`t be hearing from you for awhile-looks like your chart is upside down.!!


----------



## Karlos68

madjohn said:


> karlos -wong fatt told me -we won`t be hearing from you for awhile-looks like your chart is upside down.!!



Wrong Fatt was wong madjohn. Stop the tears and place your box of tissues down. Im still here.


Turn your computer screen around and check out this chart


BOOM:bananasmi.........Sub 2 cents now in our sights


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos, that is one sick looking chart for the longs.

Let us hope the board and executives get their entitlements should it go belly up.

They seem to have done a mighty job in trying to keep the share price up. but alas it keeps on falling.

gg


----------



## dengo

Measured move target for uranium = $37


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Measured move target for uranium = $37
> 
> View attachment 51749




Look for 2.4c if/when 2.7c rectangle support fails


----------



## madjohn

Karlos68 said:


> Wrong Fatt was wong madjohn. Stop the tears and place your box of tissues down. Im still here.
> 
> 
> Turn your computer screen around and check out this chart
> View attachment 51731
> 
> BOOM:bananasmi.........Sub 2 cents now in our sights




karlos you got to be thick -if you do not know what is happening with the price movements.


----------



## waynel2

madjohn said:


> karlos you got to be thick -if you do not know what is happening with the price movements.




Hi MadJohn,

I'm fairly new to this forum, though can you expand on the above?  I'm a believe in PEN long term though after watching PEN dropping continuously to where it is now I decided to sell out at 2.8.  With the price of uranium tracking down I believe it will continue to follow.... is this your take?

cheers

Wayne


----------



## madjohn

if you believe in PEN I believe now is a good time to buy but you must have a long term view at 1/2 years.none of the top 20 are selling out esp the chairman( guys) who has about 91 million shares,if you can buy it below 2 even better but who knows,I am sure the mgnt are aware that the share price are falling everyday with all the "good news" we have lately?? also prepare to loose what you can afford and the reward could be huge at these price.

good luck and you got to sail your own ship but you must know where the breeze are coming.


----------



## madjohn

and have a listen to GUS IS HE CONFIDENT IF NOT WE WILL KNOW WHEN HE STARTS SELLING HIS SHARES.

http://www.brrmedia.com/asx/PEN/peninsula-energy-limited/


----------



## madjohn

waynel2 said:


> Hi MadJohn,
> 
> I'm fairly new to this forum, though can you expand on the above?  I'm a believe in PEN long term though after watching PEN dropping continuously to where it is now I decided to sell out at 2.8.  With the price of uranium tracking down I believe it will continue to follow.... is this your take?
> 
> cheers
> 
> Wayne




I LOOK AT THE SELLERS DEPTH AND i SEE ONE SMART COOKIE SELLING IT DOWN but you can`t buy as many shares cos the sellers are pretty thin,why I wonder??to me there is no panic selling but a manufactured one happening for a while now-I hope mgnt has a rabbit up their sleeves to kill this seller.


----------



## Boggo

madjohn said:


> I LOOK AT THE SELLERS DEPTH AND i SEE ONE SMART COOKIE SELLING IT DOWN...




The smart cookies sold it two years ago when it dropped through 12 cents !


----------



## madjohn

Boggo said:


> The smart cookies sold it two years ago when it dropped through 12 cents !




boggo i AM NOT TALKING ABOUT HISTORY  -I am talking about future so maybe you are one of the smart ones.

now tell me about the future ?


----------



## waynel2

cheers madJohn... I was just looking at http://www.mininginvestor.net/uranium-spot-price-chart/ .  When you overlay PEN and this the movements seem very similar.  Perhaps I'll wait for a turn around on the uranium price before i get back in?

However, looking back through PEN's chart it always seems to bounce back off 2.4-2.5 though this was happening when the uranium price was much higher.  

Are you in at the mo?


----------



## Boggo

madjohn said:


> boggo i AM NOT TALKING ABOUT HISTORY  -I am talking about future so maybe you are one of the smart ones.
> 
> *now tell me about the future ?*




Dengo told you the future back in Feb on here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=144&p=756893&viewfull=1#post756893

You didn't listen to him so I don't believe that you would listen to my ramblings. How many times do you need to be told ?


----------



## madjohn

Boggo said:


> Dengo told you the future back in Feb on here...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=144&p=756893&viewfull=1#post756893
> 
> You didn't listen to him so I don't believe that you would listen to my ramblings. How many times do you need to be told ?




PLS people talk alot in forum -I never listen to anyone except if we directly talk -yes sure I  listen to stranger but never seriously cos i could be listening to someone wearing his underpants for a week or more.


----------



## madjohn

not only that,some might even turn it inside out for another week?? can you smell that??


----------



## madjohn

waynel2 said:


> cheers madJohn... I was just looking at http://www.mininginvestor.net/uranium-spot-price-chart/ .  When you overlay PEN and this the movements seem very similar.  Perhaps I'll wait for a turn around on the uranium price before i get back in?
> 
> However, looking back through PEN's chart it always seems to bounce back off 2.4-2.5 though this was happening when the uranium price was much higher.
> 
> Are you in at the mo?





I am in big time-if you want a buy at the moment -don`t` chase, let the seller come to you??their is someone selling in drips(don`t really know their action)
as for timing not even Jim Rogers can get it right. good luck and have a look at POH,another of my favourite.


----------



## didier85

Penoc mighty cheap now. 1c maximum loss with 2.5 years+ to expiry.

Still, what has this company got unless the U price recovers? More manipulation from its largest holders with a little inside help? Must be gonna come up again at some stage, probably within 12 months... they will need to get back all the cash they poured in last year... unless its going to have been recovered via shorting...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

didier85 said:


> Penoc mighty cheap now. 1c maximum loss with 2.5 years+ to expiry.
> 
> Still, what has this company got unless the U price recovers? More manipulation from its largest holders with a little inside help? Must be gonna come up again at some stage, probably within 12 months... they will need to get back all the cash they poured in last year... unless its going to have been recovered via shorting...




I must admit to having accumulated a million PENOC after selling an old Fairmont to a callow youth.

I trust I enjoy my "investment" as well as he does his motor, which has been well maintained and trustworthy.

PEN I trust is as well watched over by the ASX.

It is more in the realm of a Singleton brainfart at NSW Racing than an ASX bet, though, and if my ship comes in, I will argue it was a calculated decision.

Anyone buying PEN instead of PENOC needs their head read.

gg


----------



## Country Lad

didier85 said:


> Penoc mighty cheap now. 1c maximum loss




1c or $100, the maximum loss is always 100% ot simply, total.


----------



## Trembling Hand

didier85 said:


> More manipulation from its largest holders with a little inside help? Must be gonna come up again at some stage, probably within 12 months... they will need to get back all the cash they poured in last year... unless its going to have been recovered via shorting...




I would love to see how the shorts are going to make any money??






Since there is no shares sold short


----------



## didier85

PEN     PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED          FPO                   32,500       2,953,426,118         .00

they're on the shortsell list today, and they usually are when I've checked in previous times. however it's previous shorts that would be making money, plus there was the suspicious rumour thats now been censored on hotcopper - regarding share lending between some of the major holders of PEN and third parties.

Again, I'll say the U price being in the toilet at $40 is the major problem, but what gives me confidence is that pretty much every year at some stage PEN pulls something out that makes it go up greatly, altho its ALWAYS dumped on back down again.


----------



## Zubana

Nothing we can do about U price - the market will fix this once the surplus is taken out.

Next big things that will move this along is the announcement of the SML in early December, and a sales agreement somewhere around that time. This will open the Blackrock wallet for $22M (debt funding - senior secured notes), and stave off the CR that will take place if we don't get these announcements in December!

They will also then announce their decision on the second $80M funding to build the infrastructure.
The Wyoming Business Council ID bond will supply the "first" $70M, but possibly not first if you know what I mean - beaurocrats need time!

If all that happens then the last of the doubting Thomases will have left us, and the SP will reflect the change in sentiment.

Until then we're going to be muddling along like we are now I'm afraid. Great time to accumulate if you have big Cohones.


----------



## kiril

The depressed spot price for U is the best thing that could happen for PEN at the moment.

The more projects put on ice or not proceeded with like BHP with Olymic Dam, the better the supply situation for PEN in 18 months time. Keep stretching that rubber band until POP!!! The PEN SP will fly past 30c IMO.

I have not been increasing my position of late as I still think we have all year for the price to trend down further....but getting closer.

Kiril


----------



## dengo

kiril said:


> The more projects put on ice or not proceeded with like BHP with Olymic Dam, the better the supply situation for PEN in 18 months time. Keep stretching that rubber band until POP!!!
> 
> The PEN SP will fly past 30c IMO.




"Cameco Corp. is just months away from opening its Cigar Lake uranium project, the world’s second-largest high-grade uranium deposit..."

Mar. 05 2013

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cigar-lake-nears-startup-as-uranium-price-recovers/article9312744/


----------



## madjohn

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newscolumnists/rudi/8664222/this-tiny-mining-sector-is-about-to-soar


----------



## madjohn

BUY when it is unloved.thats when you make BIG money!

http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/14641/why-a-uranium-renaissance-looks-inevitable.html


----------



## dengo

"...the uranium price could stagnate at current levels for many years, much like it did after previous nuclear incidents. 
Japan may not restart its reactors, preferring instead to seek other energy alternatives, and reactors currently under construction could still be cancelled or postponed. 
That is not good news for ASX listed uranium miners..."

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8659737


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> BUY when it is unloved.thats when you make BIG money!




You'll love it twice as much soon...enjoy the next "18 months"


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> "...the uranium price could stagnate at current levels for many years, much like it did after previous nuclear incidents.
> Japan may not restart its reactors, preferring instead to seek other energy alternatives, and reactors currently under construction could still be cancelled or postponed.
> That is not good news for ASX listed uranium miners..."
> 
> http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8659737





SO WHICH ONE WILL YOU LISTEN TO??



http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newscolumnists/rudi/8664222/this-tiny-mining-sector-is-about-to-soar


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> SO WHICH ONE WILL YOU LISTEN TO??




LOL...he wrote this 2 years ago!

“Is it time to get back in? The answer is yes...Uranium demand will only be going up from here.”

http://www.investmentu.com/2011/July/nuclear-stock-investing.html

Oh, and here's PEN's chart for the last 2 years, no reading required...


----------



## madjohn

http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/14383/marin-katusa-time-to-invest-in-uranium.html


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/14383/marin-katusa-time-to-invest-in-uranium.html




This single picture is worth a thousand of your spruiking newsletter ramps!
PEN won't need to drill for uranium in Wyoming when they can sweep it up...


----------



## madjohn

heheheh--the world is still going ahead with more nuclear power plants-heard Japanese coming back on line again too-so NO one seriously worry about the doomsday nuclear fallout but you.


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> This single picture is worth a thousand of your spruiking newsletter ramps!
> PEN won't need to drill for uranium in Wyoming when they can sweep it up...
> 
> View attachment 52419




dengo don`t miss the next BULL in uranium!!!RAGING BULL,


http://moneymorning.com/2013/05/23/...-miss-the-next-raging-bull-market-in-uranium/


----------



## frankie_boy

madjohn said:


> dengo don`t miss the next BULL in uranium!!!RAGING BULL,
> 
> 
> http://moneymorning.com/2013/05/23/...-miss-the-next-raging-bull-market-in-uranium/




Well I live in Tokyo... Lucky the wind was going the way it was or Tokyo would of been in a spot of bother. Now with that picture, it looks like payback.. Well not quite....

But people here in Japan are wary, but not worried. Seems as tho media has scared the rest of the world into believing the end of the world is just around the corner when in comes to uranium. The authorities have been quite rigorous in getting the existing plants safety standards well above the norm. Dont forget the plant that was built for Fukishima was built by the yanks..


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> dengo don`t miss the next BULL in uranium!!!RAGING BULL,
> 
> http://moneymorning.com/2013/05/23/...-miss-the-next-raging-bull-market-in-uranium/




Mate, you gotta stop listening to these spruikers!!!

This is the same guy just after Fukushima, (March 30, 2011) - I've included a chart showing WHEN he said this especially for you...hope you like it...

"What that means from my point of view is that the depression that we are seeing in uranium and uranium stocks is more likely than not temporary and I suspect that this is a good entry point for at least a 50% speculative investment.” 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/30_Rick_Rule_-_Gold,_Silver,_Uranium_and_Ruination_of_the_US_Dollar.html




You read it right, "at least a 50% speculative investment"

Pathetic...sounds like you've been swallowing this stuff since U was in the 140s, why inflict it on others?


----------



## madjohn

dengo-seriously you are asking me not to listen tO them??but listen to you??I rather go with them -don`t feel hurt ,but who are you anyway??Pls wake me up and tell me who is dengo??


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> dengo-seriously you are asking me not to listen tO them??but listen to you??




Suit yourself... 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=11&p=718619#post718619


----------



## madjohn

dengo stop taking yourself so serious-you know you are no expert??

ABE -the man,he is quite serious though...look to the future not the past dengo.Past is history my friend ABE will tell you.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/abe-to-pledge-resumption-of-japan-nuclear-plants-2013-05-26


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> dengo stop taking yourself so serious-you know you are no expert??
> 
> ABE -the man,he is quite serious though...look to the future not the past dengo.Past is history my friend ABE will tell you.




Didn't know Abe Lincoln was still alive
The future of uranium as an investment lies smouldering in the ruins of Fukushima.
Another 41 cents & U is in the 30s


----------



## madjohn

What does mean for the uranium sector?

The primary mined uranium supply has been less than uranium demand since 1986.  The gap has been filled by huge stockpiles and by down-blended weapons material provided by the Russians.  Within six months, the weapons supply is officially coming to an end.  Stockpile depletion will now begin to accelerate, leaving perhaps three years of stockpile.  New mines will not be ready in time to fill the gap.  Any other supply disruptions will only exacerbate the imminent supply shock.

http://www.proedgewire.com/nuclear-energy-intel/tia-this-is-africa-syndrom/


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> Didn't know Abe Lincoln was still alive
> The future of uranium as an investment lies smouldering in the ruins of Fukushima.
> Another 41 cents & U is in the 30s





PEN still has a forward sold contract @ 75 dollars and might have some some sales coming soon,Why IS THAT??

buyers must be crazy huh??


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> New mines will not be ready in time to fill the gap.  Any other supply disruptions will only exacerbate the imminent supply shock.




Heard of Cigar Lake?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cigar-lake-nears-startup-as-uranium-price-recovers/article9312744/


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> Heard of Cigar Lake?
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cigar-lake-nears-startup-as-uranium-price-recovers/article9312744/




heard about demand??


http://www.globaldata.com/PressReleaseDetails.aspx?PRID=698&Type=Industry&Title=Nuclear+Energy

Emerging Countries Will Power a New Nuclear Energy Boom, States GlobalData

Published Date :
Mar 15, 2013

Global nuclear energy generation will climb by almost 30% by the end of the decade, thanks in part to an influx of new nations developing nuclear programs, says research and consuEmerging Countries Will Power a New Nuclear Energy Boom, States GlobalDatalting firm GlobalData.

The company’s new report* predicts worldwide nuclear energy generation to jump from 2,386,449 GWh in 2012 to 3,078,130 GWh in 2020, with 198 nuclear reactors scheduled to begin commercial operations within the forecast window.

The predicted increase follows the modest growth witnessed between 2000 and 2011, and the sharp drop of 2011-2012 when some countries shut down reactors in response to the Fukushima disaster.

At present there are around 45 nuclear-free countries looking at adding the controversial power source to their energy portfolio, including the UAE, Turkey, Poland and Bangladesh. Of this group, the UAE will be the primary nuclear energy driver over the forecast period, with four nuclear power plants expected to come online by 2020.

The escalating need for power, combined with soaring fossil fuel prices, is driving the demand for nuclear energy around the world – especially amongst rapidly developing countries where large scale alternative energy generation is impractical. According to GlobalData, global power consumption will climb from 20,114,049 GWh in 2012 to 27,496,560 GWh in 2020, increasing at an Annual Average Growth Rate (AAGR) of 4%.

A substantial number of reactors coming online in countries such as China, India and South Korea will see the Asia-Pacific region lead in terms of global nuclear energy generation over the forecast period, states the new report – jumping from 323,989 GWh in 2012 to a massive 851,698 GWh by the end of the decade.

-------------------------------------------
http://www.esi-africa.com/node/16386

Nuclear power demand surge good for uranium sector

27 May 2013 - A predicted increase in nuclear power generation will drive up demand for uranium, states an energy report from research and consulting firm GlobalData. According to the report, global uranium demand will climb from 105,531 tonnes in 2012 to 145,680 tonnes in 2020, representing an increase of 38% over the eight years.

The worldwide demand for nuclear fuel marginally decreased at a negative average annual growth rate of 0.9% between 2006 and 2012, but a number of reactors expected to come online by 2020 will see the need for uranium jump significantly.

Asia-Pacific is thought to demonstrate the greatest uranium demand growth during this period, due largely to the number of new nuclear reactors expected across China and India. Forecasts of uranium demand for the region will hit 46,010 tonnes in 2020, more than doubling from 2012’s 20,939 tonnes.

Uranium demand in Europe is also expected to expand significantly between 2012 and 2020, following an overall decrease between 2006 and 2012. North America, however, is predicted to buck this global trend with uranium demand steadily falling by the end of the decade.

The prediction is that US demand will in fact climb modestly from 25,488 to 26,771 tonnes between 2012 and 2020, whereas in Canada – the world’s second largest producer of uranium – demand will drop by about 4,000 tonnes over the forecast period.


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> Heard of Cigar Lake?
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cigar-lake-nears-startup-as-uranium-price-recovers/article9312744/




Can you hear them.

http://www.esi-africa.com/node/16386


----------



## dengo

"Uranium - fool's oil...

...A sober assessment of the economics benefits and the problems and risks associated with the uranium industry is required, but there's precious little chance of that when the economic benefits are grossly overstated (and amplified and regurgitated) and contrary facts are ignored.

Perhaps the worm will turn after a few more years of industry stagnation. 

Already there's plenty for a contrarian journalist to hang a story on. BHP Billiton, for example, has not only cancelled the planned expansion of Olympic Dam but has also disbanded its uranium division and sold the Yeelirrie uranium lease in Western Australia for just 11 per cent of the nominal value of the resource."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/7/climate/uranium-fools-oil


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> "Uranium - fool's oil...
> 
> ...A sober assessment of the economics benefits and the problems and risks associated with the uranium industry is required, but there's precious little chance of that when the economic benefits are grossly overstated (and amplified and regurgitated) and contrary facts are ignored.
> 
> Perhaps the worm will turn after a few more years of industry stagnation.
> 
> Already there's plenty for a contrarian journalist to hang a story on. BHP Billiton, for example, has not only cancelled the planned expansion of Olympic Dam but has also disbanded its uranium division and sold the Yeelirrie uranium lease in Western Australia for just 11 per cent of the nominal value of the resource."
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/7/climate/uranium-fools-oil




heheheh!! friends of the earth!!wonder none from green party???must be desperate!use to be a green supporter myself but realised they oppose everything N NO SOLUTION  expect the" BOAT" !!HAHAHAHA!!!


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> PEN still has a forward sold contract @ 75 dollars and might have some some sales coming soon,Why IS THAT?? buyers must be crazy huh??




So how is production going?

15 February 2011
"Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has today signed a long term sale agreement to supply 1,150,000 lbs of uranium oxide (U3O8) produced from the Lance Projects in Wyoming USA (Lance Projects). 
*Production is targeted to commence at the Lance Projects in 2012* and build to 1,500,000 lbs U3O8 per year (with a plant capacity of 3,000,000 lbs U3O8 per year)."

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110216/pdf/41wsy92gtd48m6.pdf


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> So how is production going?
> 
> 15 February 2011
> "Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has today signed a long term sale agreement to supply 1,150,000 lbs of uranium oxide (U3O8) produced from the Lance Projects in Wyoming USA (Lance Projects).
> *Production is targeted to commence at the Lance Projects in 2012* and build to 1,500,000 lbs U3O8 per year (with a plant capacity of 3,000,000 lbs U3O8 per year)."
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110216/pdf/41wsy92gtd48m6.pdf




you worry too much for us-we live for today and tomorrow-past is past -nothing goes smoothly in live and business.Many thanks for for concern but I still take to the people with positives outlook than those with gloomy outlooks.In business and life -you learn to be better from mistakes .Anyway,ABE is going ahead.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/abe-to-pledge-resumption-of-japan-nuclear-plants-2013-05-26


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> So how is production going?
> 
> 15 February 2011
> "Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has today signed a long term sale agreement to supply 1,150,000 lbs of uranium oxide (U3O8) produced from the Lance Projects in Wyoming USA (Lance Projects).
> *Production is targeted to commence at the Lance Projects in 2012* and build to 1,500,000 lbs U3O8 per year (with a plant capacity of 3,000,000 lbs U3O8 per year)."
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110216/pdf/41wsy92gtd48m6.pdf




Dengo you better go and protest!!UAE installing......2nd....

http://news.silobreaker.com/uae-beg...-at-barakah-power-plant-5_2266851122847154207


----------



## Country Lad

madjohn said:


> you worry too much for us-we live for today and tomorrow




Yep, and the market also looks at today and about 12 months ahead and is telling us what it thinks of PEN, keeping it around a 4 year low.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> you worry too much for us




I couldn't care less. 

I have as much contempt for the recent 30+ cent fantasy target & your regurgitated spruiks as you would if I was posting meltdown pictures & the SP was 4c

4c, now there's a target to aim for...


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> I couldn't care less.
> 
> I have as much contempt for the recent 30+ cent fantasy target & your regurgitated spruiks as you would if I was posting meltdown pictures & the SP was 4c
> 
> 4c, now there's a target to aim for...




you mentioned 2016-I see south Africa but you can`t so that`s  not my problem.
I know you are concern for our investment,not many top guy like you around nowadays.


----------



## didier85

so why the rise today?

I can't see anymore reason than daytraders... and being oversold...

this typically leads to a retrace the following day, although technically speaking its excellent I suppose.


----------



## Cruise

didier85 said:


> so why the rise today?
> 
> I can't see anymore reason than daytraders... and being oversold...
> 
> this typically leads to a retrace the following day, although technically speaking its excellent I suppose.




Big spike in volume too!!

I noticed BMN and BLR had big spikes in SP yesterday and we didn`t. Did we follow them or is there some interest in the Aquifer Exemption for Ross Permit Area ann?

Has PEN and the u3o8 prices bottomed? got me beat but good to see the volume up!


----------



## Donga

Dengo (close, but no cigar) or anyone else, pls tell me where I'm wrong:

1. Nuclear is FAR safer then fossil fuels (and even safer then wind turbine - google it)
2. Nuclear is cleaner than any reliable base load energy. And much as we all love alternative stuff, in this case won't be ready for base load for at least 10 years
3. Nuclear is cheaper than any energy per KwH
4. Japan will restart their reactors to capture 1, 2 & 3 once their regulators do what should have been done long ago as regards safeguards, e.g. 40 year old technology doesn't make sense, especially on a fault line... 
5. Germany will continue to pay high prices for energy, including their purchases from French nuclear - they will pay while alternative energy is capable of providing base load
6. US as largest consumer of nuclear energy is committed to extending the use, even with shale gas
7. China, India and Russia are committed to mastering the technology with many plants under construction and others in design (check out the new U technologies). They want to improve safety, effectiveness, cost and assist (profit from) a host of other countries plugging into 1,2 & 3. 
8. Nuclear will complement alternative fuels as they are developed (to be reliable and cost effective) and fossil fuels become unsustainable (for a number of reasons, refer 1, 2 & 3). 
9. Global village used more uranium (and that is post Fuku) than what was produced in 2012
10. Megaton to megawatt program ceases end 2012
11. Uranium is emotional, poorly understood by many, especially in Australia (we export but don't use, go figure) 
12. Switched on greens are recent converts, as 70's dinosaurs fade into the twilight. WIP... take a peek
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es3051197 

So whether you're green, pragmatist or wanna make a buck - now's the time. U stocks are so undervalued it's ridiculous. Forget iron ore, coal, gold. Do some research, feel good and make some money at the same time. Proper research, not media scaremongering or what your parents did in the 70's. And if you're my age, as an old lefty, look objectively at the data and still respect what the good ole boys thought way back then (scary stuff the Cold War). You can start with the number of radioactive deaths from Fuku - zero last count vs thousands upon thousands every year from fossil fuels. And don't give me the "we don't know yet" BS. There's enough out there if you're truly objective IMO.


----------



## dengo

Donga said:


> U stocks are so undervalued it's ridiculous.




Donga, U will hit $20


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Measured move target for uranium = $37
> 
> View attachment 51749




Now $39.90


----------



## colossus

the indicator used makes a difference i reckon:


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> the indicator used makes a difference i reckon:




Not if it's irrelevant...

"Urax consists of the 10 largest global companies operating in the fields of uranium mining or processing"

LOL, sorry, I forgot, you lot think PEN will be a major producer 18 months ago


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> Not if it's irrelevant...
> 
> "Urax consists of the 10 largest global companies operating in the fields of uranium mining or processing"
> 
> LOL, sorry, I forgot, you lot think PEN will be a major producer 18 months ago




huh? i've only been on ASF for 12 months - how can you know what i was thinking 18 months ago?

i've been quite content continuing to accumulate during the delay so i'm more than ok.

in any event, i know that they will get the SML in december, there's a chance that the hearing will be dismissed, and i know they will be a producer - what do you know?


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> Donga, U will hit $20
> 
> View attachment 52548




talking about useless, this graph = the definition of


----------



## mickqld

Now that the media driven hysteria has evaporated and some sane heads have taken time to study what the effects of Fukushima have been.


http://www.theage.com.au/comment/ja...d-none-sick-20130604-2nomz.html#ixzz2VUAeXtIK

Japan's radiation disaster toll: none dead, none sick



Heard much about Fukushima lately? You know, the disaster that spread deadly contamination across Japan and spelt the end for the nuclear industry.

You should have, because recent authoritative reports have reached a remarkable conclusion about a supposedly "deadly" disaster. No one died, nor is likely to die, according to the most comprehensive assessments since the Fukushima nuclear plant was hit by a massive earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.

The accident competed for media space with the deaths of nearly 20,000 people in the magnitude 9.0 quake – 1000 times worse than the Christchurch quake – and tsunami, which wholly or partly destroyed more than a million buildings......................................................................................................................................................................................Now the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation has drawn on 80 scientists from 18 countries to produce a draft report that concludes: "Radiation exposure following the nuclear accident at Fukushima-Daiichi did not cause any immediate health effects. It is unlikely to be able to attribute any health effects in the future among the general public and the vast majority of workers."............................................................................................................................

Japan struggled without 30 per cent of its generating capacity for almost two years before electing pro-nuclear Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in December. About 50 reactors are expected to restart within a year. Worldwide, more than 60 plants are being built and 300 are in the licensing process, the strongest growth since the 1970s.

Fukushima was serious, but it was not the end of the debate about nuclear power, nor should it be. And it's hardly an informed debate when the good news about smaller health impacts than anyone dared expect is so widely neglected.

John Watson is a senior writer.


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> huh? i've only been on ASF for 12 months - how can you know what i was thinking 18 months ago?




You were a ramper elsewhere before you started here.

I'm certain you salivated upon reading this gem...

15 February 2011
"Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has today signed a long term sale agreement to supply 1,150,000 lbs of uranium oxide (U3O8) produced from the Lance Projects in Wyoming USA (Lance Projects).
*Production is targeted to commence at the Lance Projects in 2012* and build to 1,500,000 lbs U3O8 per year (with a plant capacity of 3,000,000 lbs U3O8 per year)."


----------



## Zubana

Dengo, as much as you point fingers about ramping, you yourself are hardly the impartial adjudicator, telling all who might listen how grim the U industry is, what a load of bollocks PEN is as a company etc etc.

It won't be that long before you and yours will be eating humble pie.....that is if you're big enough to stick around after you have to eat your words. All IHMO of course, but unless your vision is impaired enough so as to prevent you from seeing beyond the 6-12 month frame, you couldn't possibly continue to believe the nonsense you write here.


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> You were a ramper elsewhere before you started here.
> 
> I'm certain you salivated upon reading this gem...
> 
> 15 February 2011
> "Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that it has today signed a long term sale agreement to supply 1,150,000 lbs of uranium oxide (U3O8) produced from the Lance Projects in Wyoming USA (Lance Projects).
> *Production is targeted to commence at the Lance Projects in 2012* and build to 1,500,000 lbs U3O8 per year (with a plant capacity of 3,000,000 lbs U3O8 per year)."




dengo aka hc orphan aka vintage???

mate there's a BIG difference between a ramper and a positive long term holder.  rampers get in, ramp, sell - i've been in, accumulating and waiting.  if you know me, like you state, you'd know that.  as i've been saying for a long time, i've been waiting for this co to come to fruition, sure it's taken longer than first anticipated but in that time i've increased my holdings many fold and the SML is less than 6 months away - FACT.

if it pays off i'll be laughing, if not, what is it to you?  besides, i also make pretty good coin from my day job and any losses here can be written off against gains there - win, win for me.


----------



## Trembling Hand

colossus said:


> if it pays off i'll be laughing, if not, what is it to you?  besides, i also make pretty good coin from my day job and any losses here can be written off against gains there - win, win for me.




Thats a bit funny - but more sad really.

Besides you cannot claim capital losses against income. If your investing you will not be classed as a trader and cannot use the L in your P & L.

But hey its your money.


----------



## colossus

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats a bit funny - but more sad really.
> 
> Besides you cannot claim capital losses against income. If your investing you will not be classed as a trader and cannot use the L in your P & L.
> 
> But hey its your money.




income is income not investment.

oops, don't tell the ATO but that's what i've been doing  investment gains negating investment losses - thank you DIY tax return.

from the ATO website:

"For most CGT events, you have made:
a capital gain if the amount of money and property you received, or were entitled to receive, from the CGT event was more than the cost base of your asset; you may then have to pay tax on your capital gain
a capital loss if the amount of money and property you received, or were entitled to receive, from the CGT event was less than the reduced cost base of your asset."

besides, there's not really much need for a write off needed if i don't intend on making a loss and i don't intend to sell until i've made some money.

still win, win.


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> About 50 reactors are expected to restart within a year.




Good luck with that!

"Only 'Unevolved Apes Want Nukes!': Japanese Demand End to Nuclear Era"

https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/06/02-0


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Now $39.90
> 
> View attachment 52672




"A new wave of nervousness swept through WA's already under-pressure uranium explorers yesterday after the uranium spot price hit a four-year low.

The price fell below the $40 a pound threshold for the first time since April 2009, closing at $39.87 a pound."

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/17512668/uranium-price-hits-four-year-low/


----------



## flashman1207

dengo said:


> Good luck with that!
> 
> "Only 'Unevolved Apes Want Nukes!': Japanese Demand End to Nuclear Era"
> 
> https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/06/02-0




A dodgy website at best. Bans users and removes comments that speak out against their propaganda. Cherry picks snippets of articles to 'present' its point of view..... Its supposed to be a progressive site but its not big on free speach !!!


----------



## dengo

"What Happens When Our Nuclear-Power Fleet Is Older Than You Are?

...In the coming years, as the rest of the aging U.S. nuclear fleet starts to push 50, 60, and beyond, worrisome questions will arise. How long can nuclear facilities operate safely or economically?

...In the coming years, as electricity demand grows and more nuclear plants shut down, the bulk of that capacity is likely to be filled by coal and natural-gas plants."

http://news.yahoo.com/happens-nuclear-power-fleet-older-115845145.html


----------



## colossus

the old cut and paste articles game huh:

http://www.u3o8.biz/s/MarketComment...itle=Uranium-Spot-Market-Spike-on-the-Horizon

the demand spike prediction will be perfect for when PEN comes on line.


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> the demand spike prediction will be perfect for when PEN comes on line.




You are a delusional fantasist
There never will be a demand spike for nuclear energy
You have missed the boat!

http://wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/wyoming-may-have-missed-uranium-boom


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> You have missed the boat!




If any more nuke's come on line they will be swamped by others shutting down!

"Germany is shutting its entire fleet and switching to renewables.  France, once the poster child for the global reactor industry, is following suit.  South Korea has just shut three due to fraudulent safety procedures.  Massive demonstrations rage against reactors being built in India.  Only the Koreans, Chinese and Russians remain at all serious about pushing ahead with this *tragic technology*.

Cheap gas has undercut the short-term market for expensive electricity generated by obsolete coal and nuke burners.  But the vision of Solartopia””a totally green-powered Earth””is now our tangible long-term reality."

http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/06/07/san-onofre-nuke-plant-is-dead/


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> You are a delusional fantasist
> There never will be a demand spike for nuclear energy
> You have missed the boat!
> 
> http://wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/wyoming-may-have-missed-uranium-boom




yes Vintage, keep going with your anti-U stance you tree-hugging hippy.  to quote someone i'm sure you know well "the times, they are a-changing" - but not the way you think.  

"Wyoming may have missed the Uranium boom" - key word "may".  That article targets the long wait times for permits in Wyoming and is a nudge for the authorities to get their act together, they missed the last boom - hurry up so you don't miss the next.
Another phrase: "Cameco will now aim to increase production to about 36 million pounds of yellowcake by 2018…rather than the previously announced 40 million pounds." - key word "increase" an increase to 36 down from 40 is still an INCREASE, now why would they "increase" production if there is no need?  and of course cameco wants to install fear into their opposition with a bit of down talk, so they can dominate the market, that's why they're talking the price down but still increasing production.

another article: http://www.energytribune.com/77506/...-uranium-sector#sthash.2BmUYXNA.ynskryFZ.dpbs
"While the world’s nuclear power generators will require more than 66,000 tons of uranium this year, current global mine production is only 55,000 tons, the minister, Gary Gray, told the Australian Uranium Association Thursday. - now, why would a country that's been so anti U for so long all of a sudden want to get into the market???  to be ready for the demand spike and the revenue generated.

what about the potential use of U for space exploration - the next frontier:
http://www.space.com/20609-nuclear-fusion-rocket-mars.html

you keep posting the anti U articles and i'll keep posting the pro-U articles - time will be the judge, not you and your ranting and downramping.  

the signs are there, maybe you need to get down from the treehouse and have a look:
http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/...-nuclear-in-pandoras-promise-trailer-20130430
and
http://www.ecolo.org/

i noticed you no longer post on topstocks - did the lawyers shut you down like they did to you on HC?  i would have thought you would have learnt your lesson.

have a good weekend, i know i will, i'm on holidays for 4 weeks and off to the States and Mexico.  maybe i'll stop in and have a cuppa with your buddies over there.


----------



## colossus

actually, maybe it's not vintage.  does dengo = tseeker?  that could be more like it i think.


----------



## flashman1207

colossus said:


> actually, maybe it's not vintage.  does dengo = tseeker?  that could be more like it i think.




Dengo, your obviously anti-nuclear/Uranium. Do you spend as much time on other Uranium companies threads telling people the same things you do on the PEN thread? If not, then why not? Why concentrate on PEN so much? Would you not be better off on a general Uranium thread? I'm not having a go, am just trying to understand why you care so much about us PEN'ers? We all realise its a risk stock but we are all grown ups..


----------



## colossus

I must admit, with things getting this feisty, it bodes well for PEN - no one would be interested in this "dog" otherwise.


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> Good luck with that!
> 
> "Only 'Unevolved Apes Want Nukes!': Japanese Demand End to Nuclear Era"
> 
> https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/06/02-0




dengo ,you are so full of yourself!!full of farts!!heheheh.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/japans-radiation-disaster-toll-none-dead-none-sick-20130604-2nomz.html

The nuclear debate shouldn't end with Fukushima fear.


inShare
submit to redditEmail articlePrintReprints & permissions
Heard much about Fukushima lately? You know, the disaster that spread deadly contamination across Japan and spelt the end for the nuclear industry.

You should have, because recent authoritative reports have reached a remarkable conclusion about a supposedly "deadly" disaster. No one died, nor is likely to die, according to the most comprehensive assessments since the Fukushima nuclear plant was hit by a massive earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.

The accident competed for media space with the deaths of nearly 20,000 people in the magnitude 9.0 quake – 1000 times worse than the Christchurch quake – and tsunami, which wholly or partly destroyed more than a million buildings.

The nuclear workers were the living dead, we were told; hundreds of thousands would die if the plant exploded; even if that didn't happen, affected areas would be uninhabitable and residents' health would suffer for generations.

Advertisement
Instead, two independent international reports conclude that radiative material released from Fukushima's four damaged reactors, three of which melted down, has had negligible health impacts.

In February, the World Health Organisation reported there would be no noticeable increases in cancer rates for the overall population. A third of emergency workers were at some increased risk.

While infants in two localised hot spots were likely to have a 6 per cent relative increase in female breast cancer and 7 per cent relative increase in male leukaemia, WHO cautioned this was a small change. The lifetime risk of thyroid cancer, which is treatable, is only 0.75 per cent, so even in the worst-affected location it rose to only 1.25 per cent.

Now the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation has drawn on 80 scientists from 18 countries to produce a draft report that concludes: "Radiation exposure following the nuclear accident at Fukushima-Daiichi did not cause any immediate health effects. It is unlikely to be able to attribute any health effects in the future among the general public and the vast majority of workers."

The committee has had two years to build a fuller picture of radiation dosages (measured as mSv) and impacts. It finds most Japanese in the first and second years were exposed to lower doses from the accident than from natural background radiation's 2-3 mSv a year.

Also, "No radiation-related deaths or acute effects have been observed among nearly 25,000 workers involved at the accident site. Given the small number of highly exposed workers, it is unlikely that excess cases of thyroid cancer due to radiation exposure would be detectable."

Those workers, who were allowed a maximum short-term dose of 250 mSv, have been closely monitored. Of 167 exposed to more than the industry's recommended five-year limit of 100 mSv (a CT scan exposes patients to up to 10 mSv), 23 recorded 150-200 mSv, three 200-250 mSv and six up to 678 mSv, still short of the 1000 mSv single dosage that causes radiation sickness, or the accumulated exposure estimated to cause a fatal cancer years later in 5 per cent of people.

So, not even one case of radiation sickness to report.

A swift evacuation of 200,000 residents within a 20-kilometre radius of the plant helped protect them – WHO estimated most residents of Fukushima prefecture received doses of 1-10 mSv in the first year. By August 2011, however, the dose rate at the plant boundary was only 1.7 mSv a year.

The rapid decay of most of the radioactive material (iodine-131, which reduced to a 16th of its original activity in a month) also means the evacuated area has not been permanently blighted. Many residents have returned, although some areas have restricted entry until radiation drops below the 20 mSv-a-year threshold, expected in 2016-17.

Nor has the environment been devastated. The report says: "The exposures on both marine and terrestrial non-human biota were too low for observable acute effects."

The quake and tsunami damage is the real catastrophe.

About 1000 deaths have been attributed to evacuations. About 90 per cent were people older than 66, who suffered from the trauma of evacuation and living in shelters. Sadly, those of them who left areas where radiation was no greater than in naturally high background areas would have been better off staying.

Let's be clear, Fukushima was hit by a worst-case scenario: the world's fifth-most-powerful earthquake since 1900, a tsunami twice as high as the plant was built to withstand, and follow-up quakes of magnitudes 7.1 and 6.3. A Japanese commission of inquiry described it as a "man-made disaster" because of regulatory failure and lack of a safety culture.

This "perfect storm" hit a nuclear plant built to a 50-year-old design and no one died. Japan moved a few metres east during a three-minute quake and the local coastline subsided half a metre, but the 11 reactors operating in four nuclear power plants in the region all shut down automatically. None suffered significant damage. (The tsunami disabled Fukushima's cooling system.)

Yet such is the imbalance of dread to risk on matters nuclear that this accident was enough to turn public opinion and governments against nuclear power. Never mind that coal mining kills almost 6000 people a year, or that populations of coal-mining areas have death rates about 10 per cent higher than non-mining areas, or that coal emissions drive global warming.

And surely the fact that the more modern Onagawa nuclear plant was twice as close to the quake epicentre and shut down as designed, without incident, counts for something.

Japan struggled without 30 per cent of its generating capacity for almost two years before electing pro-nuclear Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in December. About 50 reactors are expected to restart within a year. Worldwide, more than 60 plants are being built and 300 are in the licensing process, the strongest growth since the 1970s.

Fukushima was serious, but it was not the end of the debate about nuclear power, nor should it be. And it's hardly an informed debate when the good news about smaller health impacts than anyone dared expect is so widely neglected.

John Watson is a senior writer.

Ads by Google



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/japan...d-none-sick-20130604-2nomz.html#ixzz2Vc3UiBRl


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> You are a delusional fantasist
> There never will be a demand spike for nuclear energy
> You have missed the boat!
> 
> http://wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/wyoming-may-have-missed-uranium-boom






An interesting article. Pasted the conclusion only below as it is too long.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Mills/2013-05-31-Civil-Nuclear-Energy-Renaissance-Restart.html

Concerns about climate change, carbon footprints, energy security and the rising cost of fossil fuels spurred a revival of interest in nuclear power generation. In early 2010 we saw the start of a of a global nuclear renaissance. It was derailed by Fukushima-Daiichi.

The nuclear renaissance, and a bull market you should be aware of, have been restarted.

State of nuclear power in the USA

The USA has 104 nuclear power reactors in 31 states. Since 2001 these plants have achieved an average capacity factor of over 90 percent, generating up to 807 billion kWh per year and account for 20 percent of total electricity generated.

In 2012, U.S. suppliers and civilian owner/operators (COO) purchased 56 million pounds U3O8e.

U.S. uranium suppliers:

Australia/Canada - 35 percent 
Kazakhstan, Russia and Uzbekistan - 29 percent 
Brazil, China, Malawi, Namibia, Niger, South Africa, and Ukraine – 19 percent

Seventeen percent of the U3O8e delivered in 2012 was U.S. uranium, 83 percent was foreign supplied uranium at a weighted-average price of $54.07 per pound - $2.4 billion sent out of the country to foreigners instead of creating new high quality mining, processing and transportation jobs in the U.S.

Ten percent, or just 4.9 million pounds, of the 49 million pounds U3O8e uranium loaded into U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors during 2012 was from U.S. mined uranium, 90 percent was foreign supplied uranium.

According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA) there are plans for 13 new reactors in the U.S., three reactor units are under construction, and as many as six may come online in the next decade for a total of 10,860 MWe.

The U.S. Department of Energy projects that U.S. electricity demand will rise 24 percent by 2035. Maintaining nuclear energy’s current 20 percent share of generation would require building about one reactor per year starting in 2016, or 20 to 25 new units by 2035.

Each GWe (1 megawatt = 0.001 gigawatts) of increased capacity (enough electricity to power one million homes) will require about 200 tU/yr of extra mine production and each reactor about 400-600 tU for the first fuel load.

Under the terms of the 1993 government-to-government nuclear non-proliferation agreement (Megatons to Megawatts program), the United States and Russia agreed to commercially implement a 20 year program to convert 500 metric tons of HEU (uranium 235 enriched to 90 percent) taken from Soviet era warheads, into LEU, low enriched uranium (less than 5 percent uranium 235). The HEU agreement ends late in 2013 and removes 24 million pounds of uranium supply from the U.S. market.

In 2012, the United States mined just 4.1 million pounds of uranium.

Global Demand

Current annual global uranium consumption is 190 million pounds, annual global mine production is 140 million pounds, inventory draw downs, the down-blending of weapons-grade material and the enrichment of tails material are a large portion of supply and currently make up the difference. However with inventories dwindling and the HEU agreement ending, the drying up of most non-mining uranium supply sources seems certain.

NuCap Ltd., a London-based industry consultancy, says the annual consumption of uranium will increase to 265 million pounds by 2020. According to The Australian newspaper global demand for uranium fuel is going to increase to 280 million pounds U308 by 2030.

According to the World Nuclear Association:

There are 439 operating nuclear power plants in the world
62 new plants are currently under construction
139 new plants are in the planning stage
326 new plants are in the proposal stage
China will build 50 new reactors by 2030 - a 500 percent increase over current reactor numbers - and by 2020 be consuming one third of globally mined uranium. The country currently has 26 reactors under construction and plans to increase installed capacity to between 70 and 80 GWe by 2020 and extend its nuclear capacity to 200 GWe by 2030
India is planning to build 35 new reactors, a 150 percent increase

Japan restarted two of its offline reactors in 2012 and is expected to restart another half dozen before the end of 2013.

Security of Supply

“Under the megatons-to-megawatts agreement, the U.S.’s uranium purchases from Russia have consisted entirely of uranium recycled from decommissioned Soviet warheads. This agreement did serve U.S. national security interests for nuclear non-proliferation. However, that agreement expires in 2013, at which time U.S. utilities will purchase Russian uranium from the country’s state-run nuclear company, Rosatom, and its affiliates. This uranium will be sourced from mines, not decommissioned warheads, and will therefore cease to serve any national security interest.

Reliance on the Russian state-run nuclear company for U.S. nuclear fuel supply poses serious challenges in terms of U.S. energy security. For instance, in the winter of 2008-09, the Russian state-run natural gas company, Gazprom, suddenly cut off all natural gas exports to Eastern Europe for more than a month, leaving millions of homes without heat or electricity in the middle of one of the harshest winters in recent history…

Given the growing demand for electricity and the number of new reactor builds planned, it is likely that the markets for uranium will only grow fiercer, placing the U.S. in a precarious position indeed if it does not develop domestic uranium deposits.” Virginia Uranium Inc.

Consider…

The Somair uranium mine in Niger, owned and operated by France's Paris based Areva (a uranium miner and nuclear reactor builder), was very recently the site of a terrorist attack. Areva, the world's leading nuclear company has been working in Niger for more than 40 years and obtains more than 30 percent of its uranium from the country. Areva produced more than 4,500 tonnes of U3O8 from the country in 2012 - 3,000 tonnes coming from Somair. According to the World Nuclear Association Niger ranks fourth in the world for uranium production and accounts for 10 percent of world supply.

Cameco (TSE: CCO), is the world's largest uranium producer and is planning to increase its U.S. production in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming. Cameco president and CEO Tim Gitzel told an audience at the company's 2013 annual general meeting that utilities will need to return to the market soon to full-fill their requirements beyond 2016, this resupply happening just as the Russian Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) agreement ends late 2013. Gitzel also said Cameco, and many other companies, have put their greenfield projects on hold and with little new supply coming on stream the future remains strong for the uranium industry.

Uranium One (TSE: UUU), is one of the world’s largest publicly traded uranium producers with a primary listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange and a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Commercial in-situ recovery (ISR) mining has been ongoing in the Powder River Basin since 1987, with production coming from Cameco Resources Inc.’s Smith Ranch-Highland mine in the southern Powder River Basin and from Uranium One’s Willow Creek ISR mine also in the Powder River Basin. Uranium One’s major shareholder (50 percent) is JSC Atomredmetzoloto (ARMZ) which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Rosatom, the Russian State Corporation for Nuclear Energy.

Uranerz Energy Corp. (NYSE: MKT, TSX: URZ) is a U.S. mining company operating in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin where it controls a large strategic land position. URZ is expected to be in production (initial annual recovery targeted for 600,000 to 800,000 pounds after ramp-up) in 2013. Uranerz has a processing deal with Cameco and long term sales contracts for a portion of their production with Exelon (operator of the largest nuclear fleet in the U.S.) and an undisclosed U.S. utility. The Company’s Nichols Ranch ISR uranium project is licensed for a capacity of two million pounds per year of uranium yellowcake.

Conclusion

There is no shortage of uranium in the ground - there is enough to meet expected demand for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, a lot of it is just not economic to dig up at current prices. Exploration for new deposits seems to be falling drastically and with lead times approaching a decade or more, the mining industry looks like it is not going to have enough supply to meet the increased demand.

Many analysts expect demand to start exceeding supply in early 2014, if so we should soon see spot prices start moving up towards the current long term contract price of roughly $60/lb. Most uranium, 80 to 85 percent, is sold directly under long-term supply contracts between buyers and sellers, just 15-20 percent of uranium is sold at the quoted spot price.

A source of U.S. market vulnerability is the relatively low level of inventories held by buyers and sellers. Supply price shocks and market disruptions could happen if there are problems (terrorist attack, NGO interference, natural disaster) with any of the major supply sources.

In 2012, U.S. suppliers and civilian owner/operators (COO) purchased 56 million pounds U3O8e - the United States mined just 4.1 million pounds of uranium. Current annual global uranium consumption is 190 million pounds, annual global mine production is 140 million pounds, stockpiles are dwindling and the HEU agreement with Russia ends this year.

The inevitable, the unpreventable U.S. and global mined uranium shortage should be on all our radar screens. Is it on yours?

If not, it should be.


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> the indicator used makes a difference i reckon:
> 
> View attachment 52680




The following chart clearly shows yesterday's bearish breakout from the bearish wedge continuation pattern.

The measured move arrow shows the extent of the losses soon to hit the major U producers...

20%

Hmmm, I wonder if the fact that U hit a new 4 year low last week has anything to do with it...


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> The following chart clearly shows yesterday's bearish breakout from the bearish wedge continuation pattern.
> 
> The measured move arrow shows the extent of the losses soon to hit the major U producers...
> 
> 20%
> 
> Hmmm, I wonder if the fact that U hit a new 4 year low last week has anything to do with it...
> 
> View attachment 52715




wow nice chart, so yesterday it wasn't worth commenting on but now it is - strange you would waste your time???  i couldn't be bothered, and i'm admittedly not a chartist, but i'm sure that others could draw lines on a chart that could/would show a different story.

all the signs are there dengo, just embrace it and get on before it's too late.  you don't have to buy pen, any u stock will benefit from the pending boom.


----------



## dengo

dengo;777259 8th-June-2013 said:
			
		

> The following chart clearly shows yesterday's bearish breakout from the bearish wedge continuation pattern.
> 
> The measured move arrow shows the extent of the losses soon to hit the major U producers...
> 
> 20%
> 
> Hmmm, I wonder if the fact that U hit a new 4 year low last week has anything to do with it...
> 
> View attachment 52715




Uranium has fallen to $39.65 now & the major U players are now down 10% since the last chart


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> Uranium has fallen to $39.65 now & the major U players are now down 10% since the last chart
> 
> View attachment 52975




dengo what s the big deal-tax loss selling will make your chart shine like gold but I don`t need that chart  just common sense and here you are trying to show how good you care??kids stuff dengo.Maybe the manipulator waiting  to push the price down for the end of year bonus????


----------



## tech/a

colossus said:


> wow nice chart, so yesterday it wasn't worth commenting on but now it is - strange you would waste your time???  i couldn't be bothered, and i'm admittedly not a chartist, but i'm sure that others could draw lines on a chart that could/would show a different story.
> 
> all the signs are there dengo, just embrace it and get on before it's too late.  you don't have to buy pen, any u stock will benefit from the pending boom.




He got that one right!


----------



## dengo

dengo;718619          17th-July-2012 said:


> Should 3.1 support fail, my descending triangle target is
> 3.1 - (4.3 - 3.1) = 1.9c
> 
> View attachment 47950




PEN chart showing a rectangle.
Measured move targets are either 1.3c or 4.3c depending on support or resistance failure.


----------



## madjohn

kiss your chart into the trash bin dengo.

common sense is better,lol.


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> kiss your chart into the trash bin dengo.
> 
> common sense is better,lol.




LOL, whatever...


----------



## barney

PDN up 7% on the sniff of some deal being swung this month made me wonder whether it might be time to start looking at some near producing U juniors like PEN.  

That thought led me to find out that Commsec's basic site does not show ALL the market depth available or traded. 

Commsec shows zero shares traded on PEN today .... but there have been 363,981 shares traded on the parallel Chi-X platform.

Just thought I'd mention it for anyone else who didn't realise they are NOT getting true Market Depth and Course of Sales data with Commsec .....  maybe I should have known

ps Make that PDN up 8%


----------



## dengo

barney said:


> Make that PDN up 8%




Make that PDN up 8000%


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> U will hit $20
> 
> View attachment 52548




U has hit $39.50


----------



## Jewels

Found this, thought it may be of interest:

Tokyo Electric to Seek Restart of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Reactors

By Jacob Adelman & Yuji Okada - Jul 2, 2013 5:27 PM

Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501), operator of the wrecked Fukushima Dai-Ichi atomic station, plans to file an application with Japan’s nuclear regulator to restart its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant.

The Tokyo-based utility will apply to restart the number six and number seven reactors at the station about 220 kilometers (137 miles) northeast of Tokyo as soon as possible, it said in a statement.

Tepco, which had a 685.3 billion yen ($6.9 billion) loss last fiscal year, said in May 2012 that it would return to profit this year if it’s allowed to restart reactors at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. The company will seek to explain its decision to local governments, according to the statement.

All but two of Japan’s 50 functioning reactors are idled for checks after the March 2011 disaster at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear station, which caused the evacuation of 160,000 people. The Nuclear Regulation Authority, set up last year, will accept restart applications from July 8.

Tokyo Electric, known as Tepco, rose 19 percent to its daily limit of 623 yen at the close on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the most since May 16. The Topix Electric Power & Gas Index rose 3.8 percent, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 1.8 percent

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...imit-on-atomic-plant-restart-speculation.html
Thanks Jewels


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> U has hit $39.50
> 
> View attachment 53129




Uranium shortfall may threaten national nuclear strategies


02/07/2013 

By Diarmaid Williams 
International Digital Editor 

A peer reviewed study in the journal Science of the Total Environment has provided what it says is firm evidence of an impending uranium supply gap, a situation that may threaten the prospects for nuclear power generation in countries like the UK and US.

China, India, the US and the UK in particular have made it clear that they are committed to nuclear power as a clean abundant source of energy that can fuel high growth economies, however the study indicates their energy strategies completely overlook potential uranium supply challenges.

Nuclear power plant

The Guardian reports that the new scientific study of worldwide uranium production warns of an imminent supply gap that will result in spiralling fuel costs in the next decades.

The study, based on an analysis of global deposit depletion profiles from past and present uranium mining, forecasts a global uranium mining peak of approximately 58 kilotonnes (kton) by 2015, declining gradually to 54 ktons by 2025, after which production would drop more steeply to at most 41 ktons around 2030.

"This amount will not be sufficient to fuel the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10–20 years. In fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under a slow 1 per cent/ year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus suggest that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order."

If the study is correct it represents a setback for the UK’s prospects for developing its nuclear power sector. In its most optimistic scenario the British government forecasts that nuclear power is expected to provide 86 per cent of the UK's electricity at 75GW of capacity by 2050.

Study author Dr. Michael Dittmar, a nuclear physicist at the European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, described the nuclear component of the UK's energy strategy to keep the national electric grid going even during the next 10 years as "effectively non-existent."

http://www.powerengineeringint.com/...may-threaten-national-nuclear-strategies.html

Abstract

Historic data from many countries demonstrate that on average no more than 50–70% of the uranium in a deposit could be mined. An analysis of more recent data from Canada and Australia leads to a mining model with an average deposit extraction lifetime of 10  ± 2 years. This simple model provides an accurate description of the extractable amount of uranium for the recent mining operations.

Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to 2030, a global uranium mining peak of at most 58  ± 4 ktons around the year 2015 is obtained. Thereafter we predict that uranium mine production will decline to at most 54  ± 5 ktons by 2025 and, with the decline steepening, to at most 41  ± 5 ktons around 2030. This amount will not be sufficient to fuel the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10–20 years. In fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under a slow 1%/year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus suggest that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order.

If such a slow global phase-out is not voluntarily effected, the end of the present cheap uranium supply situation will be unavoidable. The result will be that some countries will simply be unable to afford sufficient uranium fuel at that point, which implies involuntary and perhaps chaotic nuclear phase-outs in those countries involving brownouts, blackouts, and worse.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969713004579


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> U has hit $39.50




Now $39.40

"An oversupplied market is to blame for the drop in prices for the “other” yellow metal. The ample supply of uranium..."

http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/15045/uranium-spot-prices-sink-on-oversupply.html


----------



## hangseng

Be interesting to see where this heads. Remember the spot price accounts for less than 15% of the total sales, most is at the LT contract price.  Regardless I concede the current trend is down, but for how long.

The latest spot sales only accounted for around 450,000 lbs with sellers reluctant to sell below the LT contract price of +$55lb (see graph below) being the majority of uranium sales.

Demand won't remain low for long. Japan is also undergoing a re-start of two reactors and 10 have been requested for re-start.

also this...
http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/10/nuclear-reactor-startups-expected-for.html
*Nuclear Reactor Startups Expected for 2013 through 2017*
2013    India, NPCIL    Kudankulam 2    PWR     950
2013    Korea, KHNP     Shin Wolsong 2  PWR     1000
2013    Korea, KHNP     Shin-Kori 3     PWR     1350
2013    Russia          Leningrad II-1  PWR     1070
2013    Argentina, CNEA Atucha 2        PHWR    692
2013    China, CNNC  Sanmen 1        PWR     1250
2013    China, CGNPC  Ningde 2        PWR     1080
2013    China, CGNPC  Yangjiang 1     PWR     1080
2013    China, CGNPC  Taishan 1       PWR     1700
2013    China, CNNC  Fangjiashan 1   PWR     1080
2013    China, CNNC  Fuqing 1        PWR     1080
2013    China, CGNPC  Hongyanhe 2     PWR     1080
2013  India, Bhavini  Kalpakkam       FBR      470

2014    Finland, TVO    Olkilouto 3     PWR     1600
2014    Russia          Vilyuchinsk     PWR x 2   70
2014    Russia, Rosener Novovoronezh II-1 PWR   1070
2014    Slovakia, SE  Mochovce 3      PWR      440
2014    Slovakia, SE  Mochovce 4      PWR      440
2014    Taiwan Power  Lungmen 1  ABWR    1300
2014    China, CNNC  Sanmen 2  PWR     1250
2014    China, CPI  Haiyang 1  PWR     1250
2014    China, CGNPC  Ningde 3  PWR     1080
2014    China, CGNPC  Hongyanhe 3  PWR     1080
2014    China, CGNPC  Hongyanhe 4  PWR     1080
2014    China, CGNPC  Yangjiang 2  PWR     1080
2014    China, CGNPC  Taishan 2  PWR     1700
2014    China, CNNC  Fangjiashan 2  PWR     1080
2014    China, CNNC  Fuqing 2  PWR     1080
2014    China, CNNC  Changjiang 1  PWR      650
2014    Korea, KHNP  Shin-Kori 4  PWR     1350
2014    Japan, Chugoku  Shimane 3  ABWR    1375
2014    Japan, EPDC/J Power  Ohma 1  ABWR    1350
2014    Russia          Beloyarsk 4     FNR      750

2015    USA, TVA        Watts Bar 2  PWR  1180
2015    Russia, Rosenergoatom  Rostov 3  PWR  1070
2015    Taiwan Power    Lungmen 2  ABWR  1300
2015    China, CGNPC    Yangjiang 3  PWR  1080
2015    China, CPI      Haiyang 2  PWR  1250
2015    China, CGNPC    Ningde 4  PWR  1080
2015    China, CGNPC    Fangchenggang 1  PWR  1080
2015    China, CNNC     Changjiang 2  PWR  650
2015    China, CNNC     Fuqing 3  PWR  1080
2015    China, China Huaneng  Shidaowan  HTR  200
2015    India, NPCIL    Kakrapar 3  PHWR  640

2016    France, EdF  Flamanville 3  PWR  1600
2016    Russia, Rosenergoatom  Novovoronezh II-2  PWR  1070
2016    Russia, Rosenergoatom  Leningrad II-2  PWR  1200
2016    Ukraine, Energoatom  Khmelnitsky 3  PWR  1000
2016    India, NPCIL  Kakrapar 4  PHWR  640
2016    India, NPCIL  Rajasthan 7  PHWR  640
2016    China, CGNPC  Yangjiang 4  PWR  1080
2016    China, CGNPC  Hongyanhe 5  PWR  1080
2015    China, CNNC  Hongshiding 1  PWR  1080
2016    China,  several others  PWR   
2016    Pakistan, PAEC  Chashma 3  PWR  300
2016    USA, Southern  Vogtle 3  PWR  1200

2017    Russia, Rosenergoatom  Baltic 1  PWR  1200
2017    Russia, Rosenergoatom  Rostov 4  PWR  1200
2017    Russia, Rosenergoatom  Leningrad II-3  PWR  1200
2017    Ukraine, Energoatom  Khmelnitsky 4  PWR  1000
2017    Korea, KHNP  Shin-Ulchin 1  PWR  1350
2017    India, NPCIL  Rajasthan 8  PHWR  640
2017    Romania, SNN  Cernavoda 3  PHWR  655
2017?    Japan, JAPC  Tsuruga 3  APWR  1538
2017    Pakistan, PAEC  Chashma 4  PWR  300
2017    USA, Southern  Vogtle 4  PWR  1200
2017    USA, SCEG  Summer 2  PWR  1200
2017    China,  several       
2018    Korea, KHNP  Shin-Ulchin 2  PWR  1350


Will PEN go below the stated 2c mark before (what I and many others believe) the inevitable occurs?


*Long term contract and Short term spot prices courtesy of Cameco.*
http://www.cameco.com/investors/markets/uranium_price/


----------



## hangseng

Link to the above information from WNN regarding the 10 Japanese reactors requesting restart.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org//RS-Ten_Japanese_units_go_for_restart-0807137.html


----------



## skyQuake

hangseng said:


> Link to the above information from WNN regarding the 10 Japanese reactors requesting restart.
> 
> http://www.world-nuclear-news.org//RS-Ten_Japanese_units_go_for_restart-0807137.html




July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Niigata prefectural govt,
which hosts Tepco’s Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant,
rejected the utility’s request to meet again to discuss
application to restart Nos. 6, 7 reactors at the plant, Kyodo
reports, citing unidentified official at the local govt.
• NOTE: Tepco President Naomi Hirose visited Niigata July 5 to gain support for a restart application from Governor Hirohiko Izumida, who has opposed the plant’s resumption:

Not much reaction in the Canadian uranium plays atm though


----------



## hangseng

skyQuake said:


> July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Niigata prefectural govt,
> which hosts Tepco’s Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant,
> rejected the utility’s request to meet again to discuss
> application to restart Nos. 6, 7 reactors at the plant, Kyodo
> reports, citing unidentified official at the local govt.
> • NOTE: Tepco President Naomi Hirose visited Niigata July 5 to gain support for a restart application from Governor Hirohiko Izumida, who has opposed the plant’s resumption:
> 
> Not much reaction in the Canadian uranium plays atm though






Also noting Tepco is not one of the 10  in the article.

"*Ten Japanese units go for restart*
08 July 2013
Four Japanese utilities have applied to the country's nuclear regulators for permission to restart ten of the country's 48 non-operating nuclear reactors. *Tepco is not one of them."*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

hangseng said:


> Also noting Tepco is not one of the 10  in the article.




Thanks hs , I'm accumulating PENOC with some lazy money from a dead Auntie. Are all the HC heroes still alive?

gg


----------



## hangseng

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks hs , I'm accumulating PENOC with some lazy money from a dead Auntie. Are all the HC heroes still alive?
> 
> gg





You tell me GG, you et al seem to look there more than I do . I was banished from there permanently over a year ago and believe the PEN thread is still shutdown. Probably all changed nics and posting here or elsewhere for all I know. 

Good luck with your accumulation and hope you make a motza. I am waiting in the wings for what I believe will be an opportunity I truly never believed would occur again, noting I did state I believed PEN would go down and why....as it has done. PENOC has also caught my eye atm but no rush.

The grand finale is pending and I think the market may just give the required push if all reports flushing the market like a tsunami of toilet paper news and talking heads. I placed a buy at 1.9 on PEN that I pulled a few months ago but will be happy getting anything between that and the 5 year low when/if the time comes. 

For now happy to be sitting on the sidelines market wise waiting for what may be coming. Better to be out than in at times eh...


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> You tell me GG, you et al seem to look there more than I do . I was banished from there permanently over a year ago and believe the PEN thread is still shutdown. Probably all changed nics and posting here or elsewhere for all I know.
> 
> Good luck with your accumulation and hope you make a motza. I am waiting in the wings for what I believe will be an opportunity I truly never believed would occur again, noting I did state I believed PEN would go down and why....as it has done. PENOC has also caught my eye atm but no rush.
> 
> The grand finale is pending and I think the market may just give the required push if all reports flushing the market like a tsunami of toilet paper news and talking heads. I placed a buy at 1.9 on PEN that I pulled a few months ago but will be happy getting anything between that and the 5 year low when/if the time comes.
> 
> For now happy to be sitting on the sidelines market wise waiting for what may be coming. Better to be out than in at times eh...




You were holding several million at last count at an average you reported of around 3.2c

Still got those?

The extras at 1.9c averaging down?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> You were holding several million at last count at an average you reported of around 3.2c
> 
> Still got those?
> 
> The extras at 1.9c averaging down?




And Tech/a are all Auntie Anzhelika's roubles in PENOC destined for the grave as she was?

gg


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> You were holding several million at last count at an average you reported of around 3.2c
> 
> Still got those?
> 
> The extras at 1.9c averaging down?






No and No


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> No and No




My and oh My


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> My and oh My




Wot about Auntie Anzhelika's roubles?

gg


----------



## dengo

hangseng said:


> Demand won't remain low for long. Japan is also undergoing a re-start of two reactors and 10 have been requested for re-start.




Spot uranium prices about $39.50/lb with 'downward' bias..."The overall demand situation may not improve anytime soon," *noting it is unlikely* "that Japanese reactors will see a surge in restarts in the near future."

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/electric-power/washington/spot-uranium-prices-about-3950lb-with-downward-21262350

Now 39.25


----------



## colossus

"We're working through the post-Fukushima period and it will take awhile for supplies to work ways through the market," another market source said in an interview Tuesday. "If anything, [it is] more likely prices will ease a bit rather than rise a bit *in next few weeks, to a month*," he said.

whoa, looks like the sky is falling chicken little - what happens after the "next few weeks to a month"?


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> what happens after the "next few weeks to a month"?




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=2&p=775659#post775659


----------



## colossus

Funny, I don't read the article as inferring that course of action for the U price Dengo, I guess we'll have to wait a few weeks to a month to see.


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> PEN chart showing a rectangle.
> Measured move targets are either 1.3c or 4.3c depending on support or resistance failure.
> 
> View attachment 53024





Looks like the bounce from 2.1c is over.
Bearish Harami 
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearishharami.asp
Price/RSI trend lines and RSI center line breaks will confirm...


----------



## didier85

New holder on the July 1 top 20 holders report:

16 MS ANNE LOUISE BROWN & MR ANTHONY LAMBERT BROWN 9,410,000 0.32%

came out of the woods, never seen before.



Plus another spike today. nice 40% profit on a smidgin of PENOC.


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=2&p=775659#post775659




not all see it the same way as you dengo:
http://wallstreetsectorselector.com/2013/07/prepare-for-the-coming-clean-energy-boom-in-uranium/#

we could sit here forever posting pro and con articles.

i'll continue to believe what i believe.


----------



## didier85

seems another nice lil PnD on Pen today? always reliable to get that every few months at very least - ~15% rise in a day that more often than not immediately retraces...

on the other hand, ERA and PDN did well today too.

Whats next for PEN to announce. I think they're a bit behind schedule... now... :


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> i'll continue to believe what i believe.




Good for you, by the way there is no climate crisis. 
However, your beloved U is critically toxic, both to the environment and long term investors like yourself.

What happened to the spot price today???

Ouch...$38


----------



## barney

dengo said:


> What happened to the spot price today???
> 
> Ouch...$38
> 
> View attachment 53373





Dengo, A balance of views is always good, and although I don't hold with your negativity on the U sector longer term, I respect your prerogative to state it as you see it ...... however ....... 

It should be worth noting that even though the spot price on U may be hitting lows around the figure you state, it is also a *fact* that PDN today reported in their Quarterly  ..........

Strong sales revenue of US$107.4M for the quarter, selling 2.325Mlb U3O8 at *average price of
US$46.22/lb.*
● Annual revenue of US$408.4M from sale of 8.253Mlb U3O8 (up 23% on FY12) at* average price of
US$49.48/lb* U3O8.

The spot price of U does not parallel what is going on in the *real* market ...... Producers, and near Producers who have a cost effective production profile will be in a superior bargaining position regarding the price they receive for their U due to the number of smaller U Companies who may never get their product to market. Assuming PEN achieve their proposed objectives, their current market cap looks very conservative to me. I bought back in about a week ago based on the above ...... Just my   Cheers.


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> Good for you, by the way there is no climate crisis.
> However, your beloved U is critically toxic, both to the environment and long term investors like yourself.
> 
> What happened to the spot price today???
> 
> Ouch...$38
> 
> View attachment 53373




potatoes / potartoes

my preferred indicator is up:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=Uraxpd

so you're just another anti-U crusader - good luck with that.  you might have trouble convincing the 2 billion or so Chinese and 1 billion or so Indians that U is bad but i suppose posting on a forum is a start.


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> you might have trouble convincing the 2 billion or so Chinese and 1 billion or so Indians that U is bad




I might not...

"Chinese plans for $6bn nuclear plant blocked by protesters"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...lear-plant-blocked-by-protesters-8707180.html

"Indians protesting against a planned nuclear power plant attacked a hospital and torched buses on Tuesday, resulting in at least 20 people being injured."

http://www.thenational.ae/news/worl...ed-in-protests-over-india-nuclear-power-plant


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> I might not...
> 
> "Chinese plans for $6bn nuclear plant blocked by protesters"
> 
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...lear-plant-blocked-by-protesters-8707180.html
> 
> "Indians protesting against a planned nuclear power plant attacked a hospital and torched buses on Tuesday, resulting in at least 20 people being injured."
> 
> http://www.thenational.ae/news/worl...ed-in-protests-over-india-nuclear-power-plant




if you think the Chinese are going to bin a $6bn plant you've been smoking too much hooch.  
one processing plan postponed, will most likely get moved to a new location.  
no news about them stopping the 28+ nuclear power plants that are under construction.

as for the Indians - 1 protest - big deal.  20 plants operating, 7 under construction.

you spend far too much time on the PEN thread - isn't there some trees you should be hugging?  don't hug them for too long though, you wouldn't want the word to spread that you're a dendraphiliac.


----------



## colossus

Brace yourself: uranium tipped for explosive rebound 

July 17, 2013


MAYBE it was the heavy morning rain, or maybe it was the realisation that the market is doing more to damage the uranium sector than any number of marches through the streets of Fremantle could achieve. 

Either way, the collection of anti-nuclear activists that usually gathers outside the annual Australian Uranium Conference were for the first time in the event's history a no-show.

For the dozens of uranium explorers, developers and miners gathered inside, being ignored has become routine. Investors have shown little to no love for uranium stocks for more than two years, since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan triggered a series of events that left the price of uranium and shares in uranium companies wallowing.

The uranium price now sits below $US40 a pound, half the level required to get new uranium mines off the ground. For explorers, raising fresh equity to top up increasingly meagre bank balances is a near impossible prospect. Against that backdrop, however, is a strong conviction in the sector that their fortunes could be about to turn.

The supply and demand equation has been working against the uranium sector since Fukushima sparked an ongoing shutdown of almost all of Japan's nuclear power capacity.

But even as Japan continues to work out what role, if any, nuclear will play in their energy future, China continues with a wave of nuclear development that could dramatically increase global uranium demand.

For Julian Tapp, a former lieutenant to Andrew Forrest at iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group and who now runs would-be uranium developer Energy and Minerals Australia, the uranium market is shaping up to become "iron ore on steroids".

The outlook for uranium today is similar to that facing iron ore in the early 2000s, he says, when a becalmed iron ore price overshadowed the early signs of the massive demand growth set to emerge from China.

Today, Tapp says, China is embarking on a "massive" rollout of new nuclear reactors that will drive a major surge in uranium demand.

"Not only is there a shortage coming, it seems there will be a sustained shortage. Even if all the current projects on the drawing board get up, it's difficult to see how there's going to be enough supply to keep up with demand," Mr Tapp told The Australian.

Compounding the issue, he says, is the looming end of an international program to recycle Cold War-era nuclear warheads into fuel for nuclear power plants.

Those supplies should be exhausted by the end of the year.

"When (the uranium market) turns, it's likely to go quite a long way," Tapp says. "My estimate is somewhere in the range of $US120-$US140 (per pound) for the spot price."

Until then, however, Tapp faces a real challenge in keeping EMA funded. It only has about $1 million in cash at present and needs to secure more -- a task Tapp admits will be difficult.

EMA's dwindling bank balance is a familiar story across the uranium sector, but it is also one that could help in the industry's stockmarket revival.

Argonaut Securities analyst Matthew Keane is tipping a big rise in mergers and acquisitions in the uranium space in the coming year, driven in part by cashed-up companies preying on those running out of funding.  "Looking into 2014 we would expect to see a higher level of M&A within the sector itself," he says.

"We are now 2 1/2 years into a post-Fukushima decline in the uranium price, and a number of junior uranium companies are now really feeling the strain in terms of their balance sheet.

The average cash balance across the junior balance in around $2.1m.

"For those companies that do have cash, there is the opportunity for the cash-meets-project type acquisition."

Adam Myers, a corporate finance partner with BDO, told the conference that those few players with money should be looking to take advantage of the opportunities in a depressed market. "There's certainly opportunities to pick up good-quality projects because companies are really running out of cash," he said. "It's worth looking at the market and seeing if there is a strategic deposit you can pick up."

One player that says it is looking to buy unloved assets is Peninsula Energy. The company has seen its own share price plummet in recent years and is still trying to secure the $100m in debt funding it needs to develop its first uranium mine. Still, it wants to add another project to its portfolio.

Executive chairman Gus Simpson says he wants the company to acquire an early-stage project somewhere in Australia, to complement the company's other development projects in Wyoming and South Africa.

"There are some 345 operating nuclear power stations in the world," he says.

"As I speak there are 67 new nuclear power stations under construction; that's the most at any single time in history. And there are another 167 nuclear power stations that will be built over the next decade on top of those 65. That is a renaissance."

Should that play out, don't be surprised if the anti-nuclear protesters manage to find their voice once again.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...xplosive-rebound/story-fn91v9q3-1226680402321


----------



## colossus

HA!!!! - i hope the Chinese continue to protest and stop more processing plants:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/16/us-china-nuclear-uranium-idUSBRE96F17D20130716

looks like they'll be upping their imports...


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Measured move target for uranium = $37
> 
> View attachment 51749




Now 37.65


----------



## colossus

i hope you continue this in-depth reporting when it starts to go back up.
most likely you'll vanish.


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> i hope you continue this in-depth reporting when it starts to go back up.
> most likely you'll vanish.




My long term target is $20 so you can ramp any dead cat bounces...:


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> potatoes / potartoes




Or tomatoes/tomartoes, but not from Fukushima...

"2 years after nuclear disaster, Japan spawns freaky fruits and veggies"




http://now.msn.com/fukushima-vegetables-mutated-in-viral-photos-possibly-due-to-radiation


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> My long term target is $20 so you can ramp any dead cat bounces...:




strange, no interest in uranium (nor pen) but follows an indicator and has set a target?

you may have missed the post about what PDN recently was selling stock for.  

don't set yourself such a narrow minded focus of one indicator. the rest of the market doesn't seem too fazed but the spot price, most U stocks are up - explain that one bucko?


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> most U stocks are up - explain that one bucko?




Dead cat bounce...


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> Or tomatoes/tomartoes, but not from Fukushima...
> 
> "2 years after nuclear disaster, Japan spawns freaky fruits and veggies"
> 
> View attachment 53386
> 
> 
> http://now.msn.com/fukushima-vegetables-mutated-in-viral-photos-possibly-due-to-radiation




i can find freaky fruit and vegies in my back yard.

how many people have died as a result of fukushima ... i can't quite recall ... wasn't it zero?


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> how many people have died as a result of fukushima ... i can't quite recall ... wasn't it zero?




You're kidding right?  

Welcome to reality...

"Fukushima Radiation Has Already Killed 14,000 Americans"

And the future?

"We’re going to see an incredible increase in cancer, leukemia, and ”” down the time track ”” genetic disease. Not just in Japan but in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly North America."

http://www.infowars.com/study-fukushima-radiation-has-already-killed-14000-americans/


----------



## flashman1207

Another 'reputable' site eh Dengo with really credible experts?

http://atomicinsights.com/11317/

http://nuclearpoweryesplease.org/blog/2011/06/17/shame-on-you-janette-sherman-and-joseph-mangano/


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> You're kidding right?
> 
> Welcome to reality...
> 
> "Fukushima Radiation Has Already Killed 14,000 Americans"
> 
> And the future?
> 
> "We’re going to see an incredible increase in cancer, leukemia, and ”” down the time track ”” genetic disease. Not just in Japan but in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly North America."
> 
> http://www.infowars.com/study-fukushima-radiation-has-already-killed-14000-americans/




here's a couple of links for you, to add some perspective:
http://xkcd.com/radiation/

http://www.epa.gov/radiation/understand/perspective.html

- - - Updated - - -



flashman1207 said:


> Another 'reputable' site eh Dengo with really credible experts?
> 
> http://atomicinsights.com/11317/
> 
> http://nuclearpoweryesplease.org/blog/2011/06/17/shame-on-you-janette-sherman-and-joseph-mangano/




nice one flashman.  poor dengo - stupid is as stupid does.


----------



## Trembling Hand

dengo said:


> You're kidding right?
> 
> Welcome to reality...
> 
> "Fukushima Radiation Has Already Killed 14,000 Americans"
> 
> And the future?
> 
> "We’re going to see an incredible increase in cancer, leukemia, and ”” down the time track ”” genetic disease. Not just in Japan but in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly North America."
> 
> http://www.infowars.com/study-fukushima-radiation-has-already-killed-14000-americans/




Oh please!! Alex Jones and infowars. hahaha LOL loss of credibility .... much???


----------



## flashman1207

Seriously, I don't know why you entertain people like this. Theres one on the topstocks forum too (probably same person).... They will never tell you why they only ever post on the PEN forum.... I reckon they got burn't and just want other people to be also...... sad really

- - - Updated - - -



flashman1207 said:


> Dengo, your obviously anti-nuclear/Uranium. Do you spend as much time on other Uranium companies threads telling people the same things you do on the PEN thread? If not, then why not? Why concentrate on PEN so much? Would you not be better off on a general Uranium thread? I'm not having a go, am just trying to understand why you care so much about us PEN'ers? We all realise its a risk stock but we are all grown ups..




I asked Dengo this back in June.... Never got a reply..... its their prerogative not to of course


----------



## madjohn

dengo-can throw your chart out into the rubbish bin??heheheeh!!

Maybe this time PEN is slowly climbing up the coconut tree plucking the 2 coconuts?


----------



## mickqld

The supply gap is coming and the share prices of major U producers have already shown it. Paladin,ERA up 50% since April/May other Canadian and American majors up 25% plus since then also. Their stock rises will preceed the spot price rises way before the inevitable supply gap grips the share markets. Keep watching and enjoy the ride if you're in.


----------



## colossus

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh please!! Alex Jones and infowars. hahaha LOL loss of credibility .... much???





what a raving lunatic - says a lot about people who follow him.


----------



## Jewels

For those of you with a counter cyclical approach to investing the following article may be of interest to PEN shareholders.  From today's West Australian:


Uranium bull and Paladin Energy chief John Borshoff has delivered a warts and all breakdown of the uranium industry, saying it is a sector in crisis.

In a divisive speech to the Australian Uranium and Rare Earths conference in Fremantle yesterday, Mr Borshoff, who has 30 years experience in the industry, said uranium was facing multiple major problems that had no easy solutions.

Listing a number of "major problems" such as the lack of greenfields development, dwindling investment capital and the sickly uranium price, Mr Borshoff left a big chunk of the pro-uranium crowd in shock.

"You may think this is an overly dramatic statement to make," Mr Borshoff told the audience, which included Federal Resources Minister Gary Gray.

"(But) the uranium industry is definitely in crisis, I believe, and is showing all the symptoms of a mid-term paralysis if this situation does not demonstrably change.

"How can there not be a problem when you have an effective moratorium with nearly all major companies making no commitment to greenfields development until the price gets about $US70 (a pound), and it is believed it can stay above that level. And how can there not be a problem when you have a strong chance that some of the more expensive, smaller operations will be mothballed - putting more pressure on current production."

The uranium price last hit $US70/lb in March 2011. Yesterday it hit a new 4 1/2 -year low of $US38/lb.

Mr Borshoff said demand in the industry was essentially confirmed, however, there was no movement to fix the emerging supply shortage.

"But let's forget about demand and start focusing on the more serious issue," he said. "Supply, in terms of growth, is off the rails.

"Only at this price level ($US70/lb) - and above - can sufficient capital for new products be raised and returns on investment be justified to finally give some risk reward to the shareholder. And this appears to be a long way away."
Speaking after Mr Borshoff, Federal Resources Minister Gary Gray discussed China's appetite for electricity, and said the Government should not shy away from a discussion about developing a nuclear power industry in Australia.


Ciao Jules


----------



## dengo

Jewels said:


> For those of you with a counter cyclical approach to investing the following article may be of interest to PEN shareholders.




No amount of lipstick will make this pig of a sector attractive.

The spot price which years back dragged U stocks up with it has just smashed through long term support!

Yet delusional forum spruikers keep parroting the same "Supply Crunch" dross they thought took U to $140.

Hello, it's now $37.15 

There was no crunch then and there is none now, only industry/newsletter/forum rampers sucking in 'long term investors'

Repeat after me.....PUMP AND DUMP....no cycles to counter here...no support until $20


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> No amount of lipstick will make this pig of a sector attractive.
> 
> The spot price which years back dragged U stocks up with it has just smashed through long term support!
> 
> Yet delusional forum spruikers keep parroting the same "Supply Crunch" dross they thought took U to $140.
> 
> Hello, it's now $37.15
> 
> There was no crunch then and there is none now, only industry/newsletter/forum rampers sucking in 'long term investors'
> 
> Repeat after me.....PUMP AND DUMP....no cycles to counter here...no support until $20
> 
> View attachment 53423




dengo repeat after me-spot price is irrevalent!!Me dengo must see future price !!
repeat after me-uranium stocks are moving up even dengo`s see 37.15 spot price-why ??bcos me dengo is future blind!!


----------



## colossus

more "bad" news about the cancelled Chinese processing plant:
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...hina-to-diversify-uranium-supplies-45750.html


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Measured move target for uranium = $37
> 
> View attachment 51749




Target met...and bettered!

$36.50


----------



## madjohn

dengo said:


> Target met...and bettered!
> 
> $36.50
> 
> View attachment 53434




so what your benefit -pls explain??


----------



## barney

The low Spot price of U is a reality, but good luck if you are a Utility trying to buy any bulk longer term contracts at that price.  

Earlier this month a report on Ur-Energy (TSX:URE,NYSEMKT:URG)

They entered into a uranium supply agreement with a U.S. nuclear operating company for deliveries ranging from 200,000 to 300,000 pounds of uranium concentrate per year for a multi-year contract slated to start in 2017. 

The *average delivery price *is consistent with current published long term U3O8 prices indicators, *which stands at $57 per pound*. The latest contract makes* six supply agreements with four different U.S. utilities at prices that are higher than the current spot price.*

Fortunately Supply and Demand has a way of taking care of itself.


----------



## dengo

barney said:


> The low Spot price of U is a reality, but good luck if you are a Utility trying to buy any bulk longer term contracts at that price.
> 
> Earlier this month a report on Ur-Energy (TSX:URE,NYSEMKT:URG)
> 
> They entered into a uranium supply agreement with a U.S. nuclear operating company for deliveries ranging from 200,000 to 300,000 pounds of uranium concentrate per year for a multi-year contract slated to start in 2017.
> 
> The *average delivery price *is consistent with current published long term U3O8 prices indicators, *which stands at $57 per pound*. The latest contract makes* six supply agreements with four different U.S. utilities at prices that are higher than the current spot price.*
> 
> Fortunately Supply and Demand has a way of taking care of itself.




You spin a rosy picture...

I don't.

PEN vs Ur-Energy comparison chart...


----------



## barney

dengo said:


> You spin a rosy picture...
> 
> I don't.





No spin from me Deng. Looking at multi year charts is fine for visual relativity, but if you want to trade this thing, you have to get closer to the price action.

The current move up is getting back into a resistance area on increased volume.  A bit of consolidation between 2.5 and 3 cents with some decent volume followed by a break above 3 would be good.  A break back below 2.5 = not so attractive :taz:


----------



## dengo

barney said:


> No spin from me Deng. Looking at multi year charts is fine for visual relativity, but if you want to trade this thing, you have to get closer to the price action.
> The current move up is getting back into a resistance area on increased volume.  A bit of consolidation between 2.5 and 3 cents with some decent volume followed by a break above 3 would be good.  A break back below 2.5 = not so attractive :taz:




Thought you were implying URG were doing well with all those contracts @ higher prices barney
More advanced than PEN yet stuck in the doldrums

http://www.ur-energy.com/

If PEN can hold a break above 3.3c then on to 4.3c IMO

ht//www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=2&p=780662#post780662

If it can snap the downtrend


----------



## barney

dengo said:


> Thought you were implying URG were doing well with all those contracts @ higher prices barney
> More advanced than PEN yet stuck in the doldrums




Nah M8,  To be honest I hadn't even looked at the URG share price.  I was just pointing out the long term contract pricing for U is likely to be substantially higher.  In the final washup this may play into PEN's favour. They won't be producing for a while yet and in the meantime a lot of projects could get put into mothballs due to the low spot price, so potentially less Supply down the track, and by the time the price of U starts to recover PEN could be right in the thick of things. All speculation of course .... nothing is for certain with spec plays. Most  U juniors will have a few hard yards to do in the short term. PEN is in a lot better position than a lot of others though.

Agree that consolidation above 3 ish would look good to 4 ish ...... whatever an ish is worth


----------



## madjohn

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...rs-say-uranium-stock-rally-spurs-squeeze.html

USEC Doubles as Traders Say Uranium Stock Rally Spurs Squeeze
By Nikolaj Gammeltoft, Lu Wang & Alex Barinka - Jul 23, 2013 6:47 AM ET
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QUEUE
Q
USEC Inc. (USU), a uranium supplier whose shares are five times more volatile than the Russell 2000 Index, doubled today amid speculation gains in nuclear stocks were prompting bearish traders to cover positions.
USEC jumped 98 percent to $11.98 at 4 p.m. in New York, earlier soaring as much as 161 percent. The increase was helped by a short squeeze and a victory by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, according to Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc.
“The Japanese elections seem like what people are pointing to,” Winer said in an interview. Buying by bears who borrowed the stock and sold it plays in “a little bit for sure, but I think this is just a frenzy,” he said.
The stock, which has about 4.7 million shares available for trading after a 1-for-25 reverse split this month, has gained or lost an average of 5.4 percent a day this year, compared with moves of 0.7 percent for the Russell 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japan’s Abe will likely seek to restart many of the country’s nuclear reactors that were shut after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, said Yousef Abbasi, market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC, a Westlake, California-based broker.
Paul Jacobson, spokesman for USEC, said the company would not comment on moves in the share price.
About 16 percent of USEC’s shares available for trading were borrowed and sold short as of July 18, according to Markit, a London-based research firm. That compares with bearish wagers of 5 percent on average among stocks in the Russell 2000.
Everyone Asking
“My view is that this is purely technical, no real fundamental basis for the stock move,” Andrew Ross, a partner at New York-based First New York Securities LLC, said in an interview. It’s a “short squeeze incited by their recent reverse stock split,” he said.
USEC’s float, or the number of shares available to the public, compares with 13 million for Uranium Resources Inc. (URRE) and Cameco Corp. (CCO)’s 395 million.
About 3.9 million shares of USEC changed hands today, or 83 percent of the company’s tradable shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The stock reached a record low of $2.96 on July 8 and has since more than quadrupled.
Other uranium producers advanced. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) jumped 5 percent, the most since December. Uranium Resources, Uranerz Energy Corp. (URZ) and Laramide Resources Ltd. (LAM) rallied at least 15 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net; Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net; Alex Barinka in New York at abarinka2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> No amount of lipstick will make this pig of a sector attractive.
> 
> The spot price which years back dragged U stocks up with it has just smashed through long term support!
> 
> Yet delusional forum spruikers keep parroting the same "Supply Crunch" dross they thought took U to $140.
> 
> Hello, it's now $37.15
> 
> There was no crunch then and there is none now, only industry/newsletter/forum rampers sucking in 'long term investors'
> 
> Repeat after me.....PUMP AND DUMP....no cycles to counter here...no support until $20
> 
> View attachment 53423




Another big week for U...

Now $34.50


----------



## colossus

dengo, one day (hopefully soon) you'll get over you infatuation with the U spot price and realise that it isn't the be-all and end all. 
would you like to offer an explanation on why most u stocks are looking up in the face of such a down-trending u spot price chart?


----------



## hangseng

colossus said:


> dengo, one day (hopefully soon) you'll get over you infatuation with the U spot price and realise that it isn't the be-all and end all.
> would you like to offer an explanation on why most u stocks are looking up in the face of such a down-trending u spot price chart?





Once he consults his mate "Chalea" he probably will ROLOL....

A hilarious rinse and repeat of his posts.


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> dengo, one day (hopefully soon) you'll get over you infatuation with the U spot price and realise that it isn't the be-all and end all.
> would you like to offer an explanation on why most u stocks are looking up in the face of such a down-trending u spot price chart?




Would you like to offer an explanation as to why PDN was down >10% today?


----------



## dengo

madjohn said:


> dengo-can throw your chart out into the rubbish bin??heheheeh!!
> 
> Maybe this time PEN is slowly climbing up the coconut tree plucking the 2 coconuts?




Maybe not :

SP bid sayonara to the uptrend today. RSI did same, along with it's center line.
MACD next...


----------



## Cruise

Maybe best to ignore Drongo as he`s just after attention and getting plenty of it here lol


----------



## madjohn

dengo like to seek attention for sure-talks like me is so damn good-come on PDN down bcos it is at play-bet you it will go up again.you must be NQR not to notice it.


----------



## mickqld

dengo said:


> Would you like to offer an explanation as to why PDN was down >10% today?




Would you like to explain why PDN and ERA are up by 50% since May in a flat general market and a falling U spot price?


----------



## madjohn

no he can`t` cos his chart is blind like him.


----------



## Joe Blow

Cruise said:


> Maybe best to ignore Drongo as he`s just after attention and getting plenty of it here lol






madjohn said:


> no he can`t` cos his chart is blind like him.




This name calling and insulting others is immature, schoolyard behaviour. If I see it again, posts will be deleted and infractions issued.

Either discuss PEN or please refrain from posting.


----------



## Paavfc

Well 6 years after my purchase of PEN I have lost half my initial capital.
U308 now below $40 and nowhere near production...


Where to now ?
This has been one disappointing company..


----------



## colossus

for those obsessing about the spot price:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/how-important-is-the-spot-price-of-uranium


----------



## didier85

Of course in the last 6 years I'd expect most small cap spec miners would have lost at least half their value?


However, from their 'Announcement' today, pretty pathetic they pat themselves on the back for this!:

_Peninsula Energy Limited (Peninsula) is pleased to announce that, during the period 1 August 
2012 to 1 August 2013, the Company’s top 20 shareholders have increased their combined 
shareholding by 49%. This is an increase in excess of 400 million fully paid shares. 
The top 20 shareholders now hold 41.18% of the Companies expanded capital, up 9 full 
percentage points from the same time in 2012. 
The Board and Executive acknowledge this very real vote of confidence in the Company’s 
strategic direction and continue to advance the Lance Projects in Wyoming towards 
production and the Karoo projects in South Africa up the development curve. _


I lolled.

Its most likely that they just shut up while collecting their fat paychecks and let the share price die, during which time the rich holders picked up shares from unfortunate public shareholders...

Shares sure are cheap atm tho...


----------



## hangseng

Go the greenies....change is coming.

*WNN
ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT: Climate targets blown in Japan*
Carbon dioxide intensity from Japan's electricity industry climbed again in FY2012, reaching levels 39% greater than when the country's nuclear reactors were operating normally and taking the sector far beyond climate targets.
http://world-nuclear-news.us1.list-...a3b34d23ff7c6b48b9&id=57cc4292f8&e=76b4c6e4ff


----------



## Boggo

hangseng said:


> Go the greenies....change is coming.




 Liquid fluoride thorium reactor technology. About a million advantages over conventional nuclear plants. Passive safety, doesn't require pressurised cooling, can be miniaturised (ie possibility powering cars).
I'd rather live next to one of these than live in Latrobe Valley or next to a liquid energy storage facility (benzene = known carcinogen).
Thorium 4x more abundant than Uranium. Doesn't produce stuff to make weapons, can be used to 'burn' up other waste. We have lots of Thorium and it's dirt cheap. Guess which country beginning with 'C' and rhymes with miner is developing it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

There was some life in PENOC today.

Akin to a little finger moving. Who knows where PEN will end up.

gg


----------



## madjohn

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...ce-with-9-increase-in-shareholding-46291.html


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Donga, U will hit $20
> 
> View attachment 52548




"For months sellers have been holding firm, but the dam broke earlier this month and it seems sub $40 dollar prices are not only a reality, but now a sub $30 nightmare is being dreamed about."

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newscolumnists/other/8697960/uranium-nearing-terminal-velocity


----------



## colossus

Cameco boosts Q2 earnings despite low uranium prices:
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/cameco-boosts-q2-earnings-despite-low-uranium-prices-2013-08-01


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> Liquid fluoride thorium reactor technology. About a million advantages over conventional nuclear plants. Passive safety, doesn't require pressurised cooling, can be miniaturised (ie possibility powering cars).
> I'd rather live next to one of these than live in Latrobe Valley or next to a liquid energy storage facility (benzene = known carcinogen).
> Thorium 4x more abundant than Uranium. Doesn't produce stuff to make weapons, can be used to 'burn' up other waste. We have lots of Thorium and it's dirt cheap. Guess which country beginning with 'C' and rhymes with miner is developing it.




No arguments there boggo but it it still away off or the country beginning with C would not be building and planning so many nuclear reactors reliant on uranium.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-21/china-wants-nuclear-reactors-and-lots-of-them

Cant be bothered going through this one again to source references, but the technology although available comes at a price. It has actually been available for some time so why hasn't it advanced and replaced uranium plants? If I had access to a certain forum that has now buried the PEN thread, there was a lot of discussion on this very subject.

If it ever does come online in a big way, it is almost certainly going to wipe out the uranium industry. Is that likely to occur anytime soon? I will never say never, but from what I learnt last time this subject came up I will not be concerned in my planned entry/exit with PEN and a couple of other U stocks I have already entered. Perhaps not even in my time left on this earth.

But who really knows......anything can happen in this sector thats for certain.

I still believe the PEN sp is being messed with, so still on the sidelines for now.


----------



## dengo

hangseng said:


> I still believe the PEN sp is being messed with




I still believe PEN is a day-trader's fantasy stock that follows the U spot price...


----------



## CanOz

dengo said:


> I still believe PEN is a day-trader's fantasy stock that follows the U spot price...
> 
> View attachment 53680




No no, the manipulators are messing with the U - Price


----------



## hangseng

CanOz said:


> No no, the manipulators are messing with the U - Price





So by your charts since 2011 the U "Spot" price drops ~100% and PEN ~500% in  the same period. The analogy is what exactly? Mindful the spot price is in the main irrelevant to the overall 'real' market, it is LT contract price that matters in reality.

What is clear is the sentiment from the overblown media hype of Fukushima was a significant factor in all U stocks getting smashed aided by shorters who had a field day no doubt. This will change IMO.

It will also be good if one fine day the uranium market is traded transparently as are other commodities.


----------



## tech/a

> What is clear is the sentiment from the overblown media hype of Fukushima was a significant factor in all U stocks getting smashed aided by shorters who had a field day no doubt. This will change IMO.




You have to smile at a comment like this.
You had the same choice as everyone else.
You chose not to believe what was being said
You chose to ignore obvious changes in sentiment.
You could have shorted the stock

Now just as then
You think this will change.

In summary
Your on the wrong side of the trade.


----------



## dengo

hangseng said:


> What is clear is the sentiment from the overblown media hype of Fukushima was a significant factor in all U stocks getting smashed aided by shorters who had a field day no doubt. This will change IMO.




LOL, you IMO'd the tsunami would have no effect...nothing would stop PEN's march to 20c,50c....$1 :bad:

"Uranium prices are showing little sign of recovery after sinking to the lowest in more than seven years amid a glut of the radioactive metal and speculation Japan will delay restarting its nuclear reactors."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-uranium?oid=199623&sn=Detail


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> You have to smile at a comment like this.
> You had the same choice as everyone else.
> You chose not to believe what was being said
> You chose to ignore obvious changes in sentiment.
> You could have shorted the stock
> 
> Now just as then
> You think this will change.
> 
> In summary
> Your on the wrong side of the trade.




Another of your 'valued' contributions 

No I'm not on the wrong side of the trade as you wrongly assume, in fact if you actually comprehended anything stated for sometime I am not on at all and haven't been for some time. 

You not so long ago were stating PEN would go up, I said it would fall and why. You came out with your usual personal abuse, I was right and you were wrong. As you were when PEN was ~12c and you said it would go up only to bail a few days later. With hindsight I should have as well.

You preach as if you are perfect, you are far from it.

Yes I was wrong about some matters and have said as much, so what. I believed what I stated to be true as I did when PEN was floundering under forum tirades, you included,  in 2009/2010. I stated PEN would go up and why, you et al chose to boast otherwise with PEN eventually hitting 15.5c. You call on the 29/1/2013 a reminder of how imperfect your TA is...

_"PEN from a technical view appears to have finished its run.
Strong selling volume on 13/1 and 20/1
Unless supply is exhausted (unlikely) there is a good chance PEN will have a healthy correction. 8.4c ish. 
tech/a, #668, 29th-January-2011 11:20 AM"_

PEN 18/2 closed at 15.5, you were way off the mark.

All on record on this forum.

My only mistakes were to underestimate sentiment, believed far too much in management and yes I should have sold all at 15c and walked away. I did walk away eventually with a very healthy profit, just not anywhere near what it could have been. Again so what, these were my choices at the time.

Now as I have stated many times since last year I sit and wait for a re-entry. Maybe the 2c level was the last of the lows, maybe not, I believe not and wait patiently. You on the other hand would have people believe you that PEN was to go up, you were as wrong as I was in 2011.

For what it is worth though your contribution then was interesting and a take away for me in both (potentially) what to  do and not to do.

Why not prove TA and put up where PEN is heading, instead of these pointless ongoing personal attacks? I would hazard a guess you will be as wrong as you were on many other occasions with PEN. I still believe PEN will go down before it goes up to any meaningful level again, sites with technical indicators disagree with my view technically. What's your call, you state you don't use indicators and you obviously don't agree with me?

Yes we all have choices as I did. In hindsight I et al were wrong, in hindsight you et al were right...it could have just as easily gone the other way and you know it and you et al have been wrong as many times as you have been right from what I have seen. So why not cut the crap and stick to the stock!


----------



## colossus

links from negative articles -vs- links to positive articles continues:

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/e...-developments-a-positive-for-uranium-26150547

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41682.html


----------



## hangseng

*Perhaps the "Duck" should take his own advice....*



"Re: PEN - Peninsula Energy




> Quote Originally Posted by Miner View Post
> 
> tech /A
> 
> May I respectfully request you that you please do not get personal with any one. It is in the same way you don't like a message to be personal to you.
> If you have any issue please send a PM and resolve out of the public communication platform.
> I am a holder and saw PEN drifted down today. That is life of a volatile stock. But could not appreciate to see one ASF member is attacking or sending sarcasm to another fellow ASF member.
> 
> You might have seen already Purd2 has expressed his intention to shut up on PEN thread. If HS choses the same - do you realise who will be looser ? Neither HS nor Purd 2. They will still make their money on PEN and others. The loosers will be ASF forum, the PEN enthusiatics and some ignorants like ME.
> 
> We all are human and have our emotion. Pleae be critical on PEN performance or lack of it, quality of posting - No issue. But please do not direct salvo to any fellow member.
> 
> It is my request as I care for ASF and you and others here.
> 
> Thanks for your attention and helping to bring the fresh breadth on the forum and discuss PEN.







> tech/a, 31st-January-2011 08:47 AM
> 
> WHAT!!!!!!!!
> 
> *You have ------Gotta ------ be JOKING*
> 
> Take the Duck out of your Crosshairs and get back to the topic.
> If you have a problem with me then *YOU* private mail *ME* and take your beef out of the public forum! "


----------



## tech/a

Nothing wrong with being wrong
It's what you do when you are wrong and how long you stay wrong.

I'd post a chart if there was anything of interest.

Do you honestly believe that conspiracy stuff you've written up?


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Nothing wrong with being wrong
> It's what you do when you are wrong and how long you stay wrong.




HS old son, you may need to start reading back through your own posts and you will probably (hopefully) see why your varying comments and sensitive approach towards anything that you don't agree with you seem to perceive as an attack on you.

Dog stocks attract the appropriate responses and PEN is a standout in that category. Sure, it may turn around and head back up but in the meantime it has got an infestation. Lighten up HS, its just another penny dreadful, not worth getting the frillies in a twist over.

Consider tech/a's comment above when you read this extract from the link below to a post of yours on PEN when it closed at 0.077...



> But with me I am merely a simple learned soul, so I rely on what I actually know and what I believe will occur. My holdings in PEN are well in profit now and I believe will go much higher as I have stated before.




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=5004&page=84&p=648212&viewfull=1#post648212


----------



## dengo

mickqld said:


> Would you like to explain why PDN is up by 50% since May in a flat general market and a falling U spot price?





madjohn said:


> no he can`t` cos his chart is blind like him




Yes I can cos my chart says it isn't...


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Nothing wrong with being wrong
> It's what you do when you are wrong and how long you stay wrong.
> 
> I'd post a chart if there was anything of interest.
> 
> Do you honestly believe that conspiracy stuff you've written up?





Call it what you like tech, I know what I know and have acted on it. I don't try to convince anybody, people can  look at what is posted, the facts that were posted along with it and either take it on board or they don't I really don't care one way or the other.

I will ask you a question. Why do you think Citi and UBS entered into a stock lending agreement? I know why PALA would have entered into an agreement with Citi to hold the shares under a nominee status that is easy, a fee whilst they wait. Same as why Citi did with UBS a fee, but why did UBS enter into a securities lending agreement with Citi?

If you or anyone else believes they did this for any other reason but to short the stock over time, and they entered this early so have had a long time to dribble stock down (aided by the negative sentiment) and IMO buy back and sell many times over. The long implemented BOT trading convinced me as did a couple of other matters I prefer to keep to myself.

Believe what you will, it matters not to me. What I really found interesting when this subject was brought up long ago was the many that came in to defend algorithm (BOT) trading. Both old and new fly by night posters. Regardless what anybody thinks this trading aided the fall of the share price as was not by many not just me. 

For now I wait and so far my personal decision to do so has been vindicated.

Long term I agree with my many offline friend that still hold, one a T20 holder that has increased his holding recently. PEN will be a stock to hold when sentiment turns, it will be the next ASX producer to come online as I long stated would be. It would be a good buy now, I just believe I will get even better and am willing to take that chance for now but won't be waiting too long.


----------



## tech/a

hangseng said:


> Call it what you like tech, I know what I know and have acted on it. I don't try to convince anybody, people can  look at what is posted, the facts that were posted along with it and either take it on board or they don't I really don't care one way or the other.
> 
> I will ask you a question. Why do you think Citi and UBS entered into a stock lending agreement? I know why PALA would have entered into an agreement with Citi to hold the shares under a nominee status that is easy, a fee whilst they wait. Same as why Citi did with UBS a fee, but why did UBS enter into a securities lending agreement with Citi?
> 
> If you or anyone else believes they did this for any other reason but to short the stock over time, and they entered this early so have had a long time to dribble stock down (aided by the negative sentiment) and IMO buy back and sell many times over. The long implemented BOT trading convinced me as did a couple of other matters I prefer to keep to myself.
> 
> Believe what you will, it matters not to me. What I really found interesting when this subject was brought up long ago was the many that came in to defend algorithm (BOT) trading. Both old and new fly by night posters. Regardless what anybody thinks this trading aided the fall of the share price as was not by many not just me.
> 
> For now I wait and so far my personal decision to do so has been vindicated.
> 
> Long term I agree with my many offline friend that still hold, one a T20 holder that has increased his holding recently. PEN will be a stock to hold when sentiment turns, it will be the next ASX producer to come online as I long stated would be. It would be a good buy now, I just believe I will get even better and am willing to take that chance for now but won't be waiting too long.




Any stock is worth holding when sentiment turns.
PEN will be no different--if sentiment turns.


----------



## hangseng

Boggo said:


> HS old son, you may need to start reading back through your own posts and you will probably (hopefully) see why your varying comments and sensitive approach towards anything that you don't agree with you seem to perceive as an attack on you.
> 
> Dog stocks attract the appropriate responses and PEN is a standout in that category. Sure, it may turn around and head back up but in the meantime it has got an infestation. Lighten up HS, its just another penny dreadful, not worth getting the frillies in a twist over.
> 
> Consider tech/a's comment above when you read this extract from the link below to a post of yours on PEN when it closed at 0.077...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=5004&page=84&p=648212&viewfull=1#post648212





All good Boggo...

Good that you point out that post, it had a very positive tone to it, both mine and tech/a. Disagreement is fine and that I believed to be a productive exchange, shame it has turned into what it has.

It is only one poster that continues it and if you read ALL of the posts he makes regarding it you will see why I defend myself , as you or anyone else would I am all but certain. Criticism is fine if productive and not in the form of personal abuse.

I am a lot older than you may think and have taken (and given) plenty over the years, as anyone that has been around the block more than once would have. 

S..t happens and we *ALL* get it both right and wrong over time, both life and financially. To paraphrase tech/a and buffet et al _"it only matters you get it right more times that getting it wrong"_. My life is good both personally and financially, so I am happy with decisions made and no regrets...except for not selling PEN at 15c 

All I do here is share stock information and extract what I can from the forum. I don't expect the crap and preaching that has gone down over the last year, as I am sure others don't.

- - - Updated - - -



tech/a said:


> Any stock is worth holding when sentiment turns.
> PEN will be no different--if sentiment turns.




No argument there...I for one will never underestimate sentiment in the market again, either positive or negative no matter what my views.


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> Yes I can cos my chart says it isn't...
> 
> View attachment 53695




dengo, you are really proving that your input is worthless.  
to post a PDN chart the day after they issued shares at 70c and then brag like you knew that was going to happen really shows what a drongo you are.
to save face, how about you put up your prediction of what will happen over the next few months?
i reckon the share price will slowly increase as time goes on.


----------



## colossus

i'm astonished that no one has posted this. 
so much for balance.




let me guess - a dead cat bounce?


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> dengo, you are really proving that your input is worthless.
> to post a PDN chart the day after they issued shares at 70c and then brag like you knew that was going to happen really shows what a drongo you are.
> to save face, how about you put up your prediction of what will happen over the next few months?
> i reckon the share price will slowly increase as time goes on.




New 8 year low so she'll keep falling
Spot U had to dead cat sometime Colonnus


----------



## tech/a

> "it only matters you get it right more times that getting it wrong"




Even that doesn't matter.
You can be wrong 8 times out of 10 and still be amazingly profitable.
You can be wrong all your life and be in the right place at the right
time and change your life for the better.

*H/S*

I have no personal beef with you.
What I cant believe is PEN has shown no signs of even a slight recovery yet you insist on pumping positives as often as you can find them on this thread!

Plus the pumping with regards to your taking positions etc.
Frankly to me your posts are simply cut and pastes with no real
thought behind whats going on.


----------



## hangseng

tech/a said:


> Even that doesn't matter.
> You can be wrong 8 times out of 10 and still be amazingly profitable.
> You can be wrong all your life and be in the right place at the right
> time and change your life for the better.
> 
> *H/S*
> 
> I have no personal beef with you.
> What I cant believe is PEN has shown no signs of even a slight recovery yet you insist on pumping positives as often as you can find them on this thread!
> 
> Plus the pumping with regards to your taking positions etc.
> Frankly to me your posts are simply cut and pastes with no real
> thought behind whats going on.





Really?

I have done no "pumping" as you like to put it, I post facts as they present themselves including links to articles of interest. No need for me to post any of the negatives as plenty do that both factually and with pure fiction and blatant rubbish. Why is the same vitriol is not placed on the BMN and other past "Hot stock" threads? BMN falling from well over $3 to a mere penny dreadful with very poor fundamentals, many of which I stated elsewhere would occur and why I was also caned for my negative views on BMN that was "pumped" and often by day traders. But not a negative word on ASF about these wonderful "clever" people, it being seemingly fine to "pump" a stock for a few days once you have traded into it. I long stated the area BMN was in they would have a massive Capex and Opex that would be unsustainable at prices below $60p/lb, the DFS finally proving me right and BMN dumped from $$ to cents in no time at all.

Also I have now long made it clear that IMO PEN would go DOWN and why I thought so and it has. Not up as you and a few others stated not so long ago. That's "pumping"?

If I see a poster putting up constant negatives, I will counter with positives as I can, will and do.

If you seriously believe I put no thought into posts made then you again display how little you know of me. Not that I care, but that is your personal right to do so.

On the flip side all I see from your posts is a person with a massive ego that comes on with constant personal attacks against me and others. But hey I also may be wrong about you but that is my personal right to do so.

Judgmental, self righteous people such as you have displayed over the last year I am not endeared to. Especially when you have no idea who I am, what I do, what I have done or why and merely make judgmental highly subjective wrong assumptions. Someone on another forum making the same wrong accusations and assumptions as you that I "rode PEN from 15c to 2c", nothing further from the truth.  

I haven't seen one post of yours that is stock related and meaningful on this thread for quite some time. In fairness I do occasionally look at your T/A and respect what you do in that regard, but have never made a decision based on it nor would I. It is a shame you can't stick to what you seemingly know, you clearly have no idea of fundamentals even once stating you don't use it at all, again your prerogative. I use both in all decision making, being my prerogative.

Fundamentally PEN will be fine and has now placed itself perfectly, provided they meet the proposed timelines. The latter they have not done well at all since 2010 overstating where they would be many times, I was wrong to place so much trust in them over this. Technically, and nothing to do with T/A, I firmly believe PEN will continue to fall in the short term.

I have also stated many times I may end out being wrong in my LT PEN analysis, I firmly believe I am not and will buy back in when I believe the rot has stopped, not before.

The latest at Fukushima will not help market sentiment I am sure (if I posted a link would that be down ramping?), but then the media always did only headline negatives with the facts posted well back in the news. Can't let the truth get in the way of a good story...sentiment and personal ideology driven???

Just be great if all this personal crap could stop and all post about the stock, it is what I come on here for as I am sure others do. But I believe any forum with anonymous nics will always be the former unfortunately, so I expect more of the same...


----------



## dengo

hangseng said:


> The latest at Fukushima will not help market sentiment I am sure (if I posted a link would that be down ramping?), but then the media always did only headline negatives with the facts posted well back in the news. Can't let the truth get in the way of a good story...sentiment and personal ideology driven???




Japan's nuclear watchdog says there is a state of emergency at the shattered Fukushima nuclear plant over ongoing leaks of radioactive water.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-...-into-pacific-ocean-in-new-fukushima-/4866860

Fukushima leaking radioactive water for ‘2 years, 300 tons flowing into Pacific daily’

http://rt.com/news/japan-fukushima-nuclear-disaster-164/

300,000 still homeless 2 years after Fukushima disaster 

http://www.france24.com/en/20130307-300000-stil-homeless-after-Fukushima


----------



## colossus

and what's the death count from fukushima again?  life and our insatiable desire for power goes on ...

http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/120...ounds-average-total-cash-cost-of-19-per-pound

http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2327235&language=en


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> and what's the death count from fukushima again?




Nuclear engineer: Death toll from Fukushima catastrophe could top 500,000

http://enenews.com/nuclear-engineer-fukushima-death-toll-in-the-years-ahead-could-top-500000


----------



## colossus

dengo said:


> Nuclear engineer: Death toll from Fukushima catastrophe could top 500,000
> 
> http://enenews.com/nuclear-engineer-fukushima-death-toll-in-the-years-ahead-could-top-500000




that's not an answer to my question.  the current answer, to my knowledge, is ZERO but thanks for the sensationalised news article from what looks to be one of your typical greenie, anti U news sites.


----------



## Paavfc

colossus said:


> i'm astonished that no one has posted this.
> so much for balance.
> 
> View attachment 53711
> 
> 
> let me guess - a dead cat bounce?




Lets just see a new trend form hopefully this is the start...


----------



## dengo

colossus said:


> that's not an answer to my question.  the current answer, to my knowledge, is ZERO but thanks for the sensationalised news article from what looks to be one of your typical greenie, anti U news sites.




Arnold "Arnie" Gundersen is a nuclear power expert, nuclear power whistleblower and a former nuclear industry executive and engineer with over 30 years of experience.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Gundersen referred to Fukushima as *"the biggest industrial catastrophe in the history of mankind".*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Gundersen


----------



## colossus

it may well be, then again, it may not.  
it's not going to stop nuclear power, no matter how many anti-U posts you post so you'd better deal with that for your own sanity.


----------



## Zubana

Simple sensationalistic BS dengo; surprised you even pay any heed to this.

300,000 people die every year in China alone from deaths directly attributable to coal power generation.
I suppose that's ok isn't it.........we've been anaesthetised over time by familiarity to coal, despite the fact it's a killer of people in their hundreds of thousands annually, is pumping CO2 into the atmosphere at rates that will certainly spell the end of our planet if we burn it all....I could go on.

Go back into your hole where you can view the world through whatever keyhole entertains you at that moment.


----------



## dengo

Zubana said:


> 300,000 people die every year in China alone from deaths directly attributable to coal power generation.




A drop in the ocean once they get their nuke fleet up and running...

Chinese nuclear officials have admitted that an accident one year ago at the country's first home-grown nuclear power plant has left it crippled for more than 12 months.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/386285.stm

Chinese nuclear disaster “highly probable” by 2030

http://www.chinadialogue.net/articl...nese-nuclear-disaster-highly-probable-by-2-3-

Not long until China has it's own 'China Syndrome'


----------



## colossus

dengo, you'd be better off finding a decent hobby, U bashing doesn't seem to be working for you as no one is paying attention other than a couple of bored people who are enjoying playing with you on a identity-less forum.

maybe you should form your own picket line outside of {insert nuclear explorer/miner/enricher/power plant name here}

it's quite amazing that you seem to believe a lot of rot that is put out by the tree-huggers, takes one to know one i guess.


----------



## mickqld

Not really understanding why Dengo chooses the PEN thread to peddle his/her anti Uranium drivel. Wouldn't it be better placed on the PDN or ERA threads seeing as how they are major Uranium producers where as PEN is merely a minow explorer. Unless he/she has a personal vendetta against the company in which case I'm sure the site moderators would take a dim view to these baseless posts that aren't at all related to discussing the actual stock and the company itself.


----------



## colossus

it's a strange one mick, perhaps it's because PEN could be the next cab off the rank when they make the transition to producer.
surely their time would be better spent elsewhere other than a forum where most are here to discuss PEN not talk anti-U propaganda, the effort is futile for the limited result.


----------



## flashman1207

colossus said:


> it's a strange one mick, perhaps it's because PEN could be the next cab off the rank when they make the transition to producer.
> surely their time would be better spent elsewhere other than a forum where most are here to discuss PEN not talk anti-U propaganda, the effort is futile for the limited result.




You'll never get an answer from Him/Her. I asked back in June and then again since then and never got a response. Its amazing that the mods don't stop this kind of constant baiting..... move it to a Uranium thread or shut up !!!


----------



## Joe Blow

All discussion of uranium, the uranium price or the uranium market should be taken to one of the following threads, depending on what is being discussed:

Uranium price update thread
Uranium Sector
Uranium in Australia 
Uranium resurgence 
Uranium unsafe

There are a number of other uranium related threads. Feel free to use one of those if you think it is more appropriate.

Dengo is clearly trolling this thread and has been instructed to cease doing so. This thread is for the discussion of PEN. Any discussion of the uranium price or uranium as a commodity in this thread must be directly related to PEN, otherwise it should be taken to another, more relevant thread.

Linking to third rate conspiracy theory websites in an attempt to support an argument will be considered as a deliberate attempt to mislead others, and treated the same as ramping/down ramping.

I will also take this opportunity to remind everyone that personal attacks and insults are strictly forbidden. Posts containing personal attacks and insults will be removed and infractions issued.


----------



## colossus

Excellent work Joe Blow.
Now back to the stock.  The Final SEIS and SML are still on target for 4th Nov and 4th Dec respectively, does anyone think these targets will be met?
There's loose talk on another forum that there's a chance there could be a delay to the SEIS, I'm of the opinion the targets will be met.
With less than 3 or 4 months to go respectively for each milesonte, does anyone have any share price predictions?  Surely, the lead-up will be a good chance to push the share price up?


----------



## mickqld

From PEN's Company presentation Diggers and Drillers conference.
Under the Project Funding outline

".On debt closure rights issue for $20-$30m to existing shareholders."

Does this mean a capital raising on the cards with more share dilution. What does On debt closure mean? They already have 3 billion shares on issue more dilution for long term holders isn't exactly exciting especially at the current low share price.


----------



## barney

mickqld said:


> From PEN's Company presentation Diggers and Drillers conference.
> Under the Project Funding outline
> 
> ".On debt closure rights issue for $20-$30m to existing shareholders."
> 
> Does this mean a capital raising on the cards with more share dilution. What does On debt closure mean? They already have 3 billion shares on issue more dilution for long term holders isn't exactly exciting especially at the current low share price.




Mick,  
My understanding is PEN will be offering a right issue only AFTER the debt funding arrangements have been secured via the Resource Banks and other avenues open to them ... 

There would be dilution as you mention, but the Project will also have more security after major funding is approved, so a bit each way I suppose.


----------



## didier85

todays announcement:

_DIRECTORS AND SENIOR EXECUTIVES ADOPT SALARY SACRIFICE

Under the terms of the SSP a proportion of Directors fees and senior executive remuneration will 
be paid as equity; PEN ordinary fully paid shares (Shares). The effective commencement date 
of the SSP is 1 July 2013 and continues until 30 June 2014 or until project financing has been 
secured.
Executive Chairman Mr John (Gus) Simpson and Technical Director Mr Alfred Gillman have 
respectively agreed to accept 40% and 25% of their remuneration as Shares._

etc.


Isnt this ridiculous because it means they will be picking up shares on the cheap until the time when they have a development that will make the share price take off?

But sure... on the surface its positive...


----------



## madjohn

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...nuclear-generator-in-southern-china-47316.htm


----------



## Geart

I want to invest in PEN shares, where can I start?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Geart said:


> I want to invest in PEN shares, where can I start?




With a broker. Comsec, etrade, NAB trading etc


----------



## mickqld

Finally we are getting towards the end of the long wait for production. Todays ann. has not only announced a great reduction in CAPEX costs for the Lance project but also given dates for the final SEIS (31 Jan 2014) and the SML (3 March 2014). Finance should be decided before end of year as they announced they will receive several submissions for finance by October 2013. Great to see the savings they are making with their Well field optimisation by not having to drill as many production well holes and only having to have 2 prodution plants not 3 until 2020 to get the same volume of production.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130909/pdf/42j7lh9lfgjq40.pdf


----------



## Paavfc

mickqld said:


> Finally we are getting towards the end of the long wait for production. Todays ann. has not only announced a great reduction in CAPEX costs for the Lance project but also given dates for the final SEIS (31 Jan 2014) and the SML (3 March 2014). Finance should be decided before end of year as they announced they will receive several submissions for finance by October 2013. Great to see the savings they are making with their Well field optimisation by not having to drill as many production well holes and only having to have 2 prodution plants not 3 until 2020 to get the same volume of production.
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130909/pdf/42j7lh9lfgjq40.pdf




So 2014 still production target and finance proposals are in the multiple.
All on track just need the U308 price to rally !!!!!


----------



## hangseng

mickqld said:


> Finally we are getting towards the end of the long wait for production. Todays ann. has not only announced a great reduction in CAPEX costs for the Lance project but also given dates for the final SEIS (31 Jan 2014) and the SML (3 March 2014). Finance should be decided before end of year as they announced they will receive several submissions for finance by October 2013. Great to see the savings they are making with their Well field optimisation by not having to drill as many production well holes and only having to have 2 prodution plants not 3 until 2020 to get the same volume of production.
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130909/pdf/42j7lh9lfgjq40.pdf





Hi Mick,
Been a very long haul to this point but good to see it finally coming to fruition. Not over yet with a few hurdles in the way, but as you point out is a positive to take away. Clear the hearing, finance and a rise in the U price should (and I say SHOULD) clear the way for a sizeable sp increase next year. 

In this market though who really knows, stocks with b'all but a few positive rock chip samples or drill results bought up (for a short while anyway),  and others now producing getting sold down.

It will be interesting to see the markets reaction, if any, to the positives with PEN later this year and early next.


----------



## didier85

Capital raising.... back to the old dilution progress.

Heres hoping it comes with some impressive news!


----------



## Paavfc

didier85 said:


> Capital raising.... back to the old dilution progress.
> 
> Heres hoping it comes with some impressive news!




Will we ever get back to that 15c mark, thats when I should have bailed !!!
This next dilution could be 1 billion shares imo....


----------



## Boggo

Paavfc said:


> Will we ever get back to that 15c mark, thats when I should have bailed !!!
> This next dilution could be 1 billion shares imo....




Interesting depth at the moment !
I have seen situations such as this turn around after it opens but there seems to be a few wanting out for now.


----------



## Country Lad

Boggo said:


> Interesting depth at the moment !
> I have seen situations such as this turn around after it opens but there seems to be a few wanting out for now.




Always looks good when you have a heap more on one side than the other, Boggo and as you say, it will change at open.  Most of the bids and offers are irrelevant of course.  It is a bit like going to an auction where the current bid is $2 and you bid $1.50.  

Take for example the 1.1 and 1.5 cents on the buy side and the 18.5 and 15.5 cents on the sell side.  These make no contribution to the auction at all.  

Whenever looking at the depth, I ignore anything more than 20% away from the last price as being irrelevant to the market action or sentiment.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Karlos68

Flip, PEN hit its lowest Share Price late June 2013 since the lows of GFC. Now who would of thought last year that would have been possible?




Karlos68 said:


> Love PEN. Full of repetitive movements.
> Have picked up a pattern beginning 2008/2009. Approx 9 month divisions showing significant lows. Even divided to 4.5 month spaces shows lows.
> As Fib Fan broadens, time increases to reach high and low trendlines.
> With combination of broadening fan and 9 month divisions....My forward prediction is a dip in Feb 2013 and final low for this cycle in June/July 2013.
> 
> View attachment 50163





Oh that's right.....I did:guitar:


----------



## Karlos68

Oops.......just realized the chart misses the last few months....my final 9 month division on chart shows the 2.2 low..................... before the pump to 3.3 cent then fall to actual low at 2.1 which is end of June and exactly 9 months since previous low


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> ...no cycles to counter here...no support until $20
> 
> View attachment 53423



Chart caught my interest Dengo. Thank you for taking the time to share with members of Aussie Stock Forums.
I do however diverge on your thought that a cycle is not in place simply due to my own efforts in sharing my charts on PEN. Would you care to update your interpretations of the U chart


----------



## didier85

So... speculation on what the capital raising deal will be for next week?

They've suspended the stock and wiped all market depth (cost me 2 sets of partially unfilled brokerage... ) so lets hope its going to move the price one way or another...


----------



## didier85

ok, now is the 3rd call for delay...!

is this likely a huge announcement?! (eg. they got the government loan to develop a mine in USA...?)
or more procrastination (doesnt seem like would be)?


----------



## Jewels

Found this article on Bloomberg, quoting from "The Australian"
Whilst not specific to PEN, I feel that it gives a good run down of the current U308 market, and possibly a glimpse into the short term future for the the price.
One question though, with todays announcement re Blackrock, does anyone know if the entire contract renegotiated, including the price paid per pound?
If Gus and the crew have managed to keep the $70/lb, (from memory), sale price, then surely this is a master stroke.
Re the article though, I think that the statement re deaths due to radiation exposure in hospitals being greater than the number of deaths caused by Fukishima and Chernoble is utter nonsense.  A bit like saying "show me one death certificate that lists the cause of death as smoking"
Ciao Jewels.

October 14, 2013 12:00AM  Source: TheAustralian 
IT has been suggested that the new fracking boom will deliver such a bounty of cheap gas that nuclear power will be doomed, and that government support for renewables will deliver a coup de grace to nuclear's ambitions. These suggestions are usually accompanied by scaremongering about safety, implying it would be a good idea if nuclear was to be swiftly dispatched by these alternatives.Cheap gas means that new nuclear power supplies are unlikely to be competitive in the US market. However, it is simply wrong to draw the implication that nuclear power will therefore be phased out.Reactors are characterised by large upfront capital costs followed by very low marginal operating costs. So while you wouldn't want to build any new ones in the face of cheap gas, you would continue to operate the old ones for as long as you could.That is what is likely to happen.Moreover, the economics are different in China, where cheap gas is not likely to be available and the capital costs of reactors are significantly lower, making nuclear the cheapest option. Although renewables share a low carbon footprint with nuclear power, they are not only more expensive but they are not available on demand. On a cold, calm winter's night, they provide zero power.Nuclear remains the only viable option for zero-emission baseload power.Again, China provides the best example: there, wind power exhibits less than 20 per cent capacity utilisation, making the real cost very expensive.There is little recognition of the huge strides made in designing inherently safer reactors.The three widely quoted disasters -- Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima -- were all second-generation reactors.All new reactors will be third-generation or higher. It is a bit like criticising Boeing's Dreamliner on the basis of the De Havilland Comet's safety record. Some perspective on associated fatalities is also required.Direct deaths from radiation exposure at nuclear-reactor accidents globally probably only amount to about 65 people; no one died in the Three Mile Island accident; and no one has yet died as a result of exposure at Fukushima.More people have died as a result of exposure to excess radiation in hospitals.The huge numbers attributed to nuclear accidents simply assumes that very low-level exposure spread across a large population results in a significant number of cancer cases -- a claim for which there is no evidence.Uranium spruikers have been talking up its prospects for almost two years, all while the price has steadily declined.However, the cynics that do their forecasting with a rearview mirror and a ruler, and see no recovery in sight, are likely to be proved just as wrong.With the spot price languishing around US$35/lb, new supply simply won't be forthcoming, regardless of new "discoveries".On the demand side, 70 new reactors are under construction. Every new reactor requires about three years of fuel to fill the core for the first time and more as stock for enrichment and fuel-rod fabrication.In other words, there is a wave of demand coming, mostly from China, and the rearview mirror experts will miss it, just like they missed the beginning of the iron ore boom 10 years ago.The impact of temporary and permanent reactor closures in Japan and Germany after Fukushima was the equivalent of cutting global demand for uranium by 14 per cent.The megatons to megawatts program, which has already made its last shipment, is likely to reduce supply by a little less than 10 per cent, which will not be enough to bring the market back into balance.However, add into the mix Japanese reactor restarts, which will commence gradually next year, and the impact of stock building for start-ups, and the expectation is for aggregate undersupply next year.The key unknown factor is the extent of existing physical uranium stocks and the behaviour of their holders when the market tightens.Distressed stockholders -- such as Japanese utilities -- may decide to unwind excessive debt by selling stock as the market improves, but as soon as prices show sustained upward momentum, stocks held become a good investment.Those who say that uranium prices could never double clearly don't remember what happened in iron ore; prices effectively doubled between 2004 and 2006 and then kept on rising, despite the pundits claiming that it couldn't last.The same fundamental drivers characterise the uranium market, with inexorably rising demand from China coming up against excessively long lead times on the supply side.The difference is that, unlike steel manufacturers, who were price sensitive, reactor operators are not because uranium is only a small fraction of their costs, and that is why the uranium market will be "iron ore on steroids".Julian Tapp is chief executive of Energy and Minerals Australia, a uranium development company. He was formerly head of government relations and then director of strategy at Fortescue Metals Group, and before that was an economist with BAE Systems, BP and Ford.
 -
See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...y-e6frg9if-1226739255591#sthash.qDlcun66.dpuf


----------



## didier85

Forking heck! wish I could get half a free PENOC for every PEN share I buy... baskets to loyal shareholders again!


----------



## carolz

didier85 said:


> Forking heck! wish I could get half a free PENOC for every PEN share I buy... baskets to loyal shareholders again!




So why didnt they put forward this offer to shareholders...........you do have to wonder about loyalty sometimes.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I am concerned why anyone would trade PEN when one can have so much better fun with PENOC.

gg


----------



## tutes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am concerned why anyone would trade PEN when one can have so much better fun with PENOC.
> 
> gg




Hi, I currently own PEN but looking at PENOC.

Can someone please answer (probably a silly question): If I buy PENOC at $0.011, is this the price I have to pay to convert them to PEN shares? ie. will I need to pay $0.011 to convert one PENOC to one PEN share? Or is the strike price $0.03 and that is what I'll have to pay to convert?

Also, can I convert PENOC to PEN any time (as long as it doesn't expire) I like?

Thanks! =)


----------



## carolz

you pay 3 cents to convert anytime prior to expiry...2015


----------



## tutes

Thanx Carolz! =)


----------



## dengo

Bearish symmetrical triangle break-out
Measured move target = 1.5c


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Bearish symmetrical triangle break-out
> Measured move target = 1.5c
> 
> View attachment 54810




Maybe Dengo, looking at my downtrend line touching the lower highs, could be on the cards to play to your expectation.




My Fib Fan chart has been playing ball so I feel more likely a rally is coming with the high  touching the 23.6% trendline


Watch this spacecorn:


----------



## Country Lad

Karlos68 said:


> before the pump to 3.3 cent then fall to actual low at 2.1 which is end of June and exactly 9 months since previous low




And all the discussion that has gone on in the meantime how good the company is, how the share price will rise, how the share price will fall, all the 170 odd posts appear to have concentrated everybody's mind on this dud and ignored other U companies whose share price have a higher chance of rising.

I know very little about uranium companies, but it is interesting to me that there is so much talk about a U company whose price is going nowhere and not much about others, for example the one that has gone from 2.8 cents, around where PEN is/was to 7.7 cents (175%) over the last 25 trading days and has a more positive share chart and nearly 5 times the buys than sells on Friday.

Is it called taking the eye off the ball?

Cheers
Country Lad

NB  Yes, i am having a friendly dig so don't take it too seriously.  Keep concentrating on PEN and let us others quietly make money on other U shares.


----------



## Boggo

The PEN thread has been as consistent as the recent volume on RED in providing light entertainment for some time now CL


----------



## barney

Country Lad said:


> for example the one that has gone from 2.8 cents, around where PEN is/was to 7.7 cents (175%) over the last 25 trading days





Long time since I've seen a U stock do 175% in a month .... Can you give the ticker code of that stock please CL.


----------



## Karlos68

Country Lad said:


> And all the discussion that has gone on in the meantime how good the company is,



ASF can feel blessed to have fundamentalists placing contributions.




> how the share price will rise,






	

		
			
		

		
	
Boggo produced this chart a few weeks after I told everyone what will happen, soon after in response to Boggos chart tech/a stated "Ahh some real T/A how refreshing. GG its on its way."




> how the share price will fall,



Refer back to myself and Dengos projections. Been rather accurate just to add. 



> all the 170 odd posts appear to have concentrated everybody's mind on this dud and ignored other U companies whose share price have a higher chance of rising.







> I know very little about uranium companies, but it is interesting to me that there is so much talk about a U company whose price is going nowhere and not much about others, for example the one that has gone from 2.8 cents, around where PEN is/was to 7.7 cents (175%) over the last 25 trading days and has a more positive share chart and nearly 5 times the buys than sells on Friday.



Off topic/cross promotion  but all is good CL, Im not going to be a sooky baba and tell Joe Blow on you.



> Is it called taking the eye off the ball?



Nah, depends on your style.



> Cheers
> Country Lad
> 
> NB  Yes, i am having a friendly dig so don't take it too seriously.  Keep concentrating on PEN and let us others quietly make money on other U shares.



Never take it to seriously CL.:dance:
 I outsmarted the best Chartists HotCrapper had to offer last year.:fu:
Seems one of ASF top chartists Boggo had a projection of onwards and upwards earlier in the year which was supported vigorously by tech/a which ended in tears.

Speaking of tech/a, where is he?


----------



## Country Lad

barney said:


> Long time since I've seen a U stock do 175% in a month .... Can you give the ticker code of that stock please CL.




I posted  over here yesterday

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Boggo

Karlos68 said:


> Seems one of ASF top chartists *Boggo had a projection* of onwards and upwards earlier in the year which was supported vigorously by tech/a which ended in tears.




I think you may need to actually read what I said in that post, and what tech/a said in a follow up.

You have completely missed the comedy we had in that whole exercise.

For your benefit below are the links to the posts. After you work out what was going on then you can highlight where I referred to it as a "projection".
You may find that by reading posts in context rather than in isolation may be of benefit (well maybe) 

Here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=137&p=749699&viewfull=1#post749699

and here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=138&p=750744&viewfull=1#post750744

This post may help you to understand some of what was happening, pity that some who were involved took it seriously and obviously completely misunderstood what was happening around them at the time  
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=137&p=750595&viewfull=1#post750595

May as well have a look at this post too before you respond...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=5004&page=138&p=750787&viewfull=1#post750787


----------



## barney

Country Lad said:


> I posted  over here yesterday
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




OK, thanks.

Interesting that McCallem Group and Macquarie Group are both having a dabble with AGE 

Did you get in pre or post breakout CL?  Pre was a bit of a punt, but post might still have netted you 50%+   

Fundamentally PEN looks a superior medium term proposition on paper imo, but is fairly unloved at present.


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Bearish symmetrical triangle break-out
> Measured move target = 1.5c
> 
> View attachment 54810




Price now tracking/trending down the lower Bollinger band after the squeeze
Further detailed examination of the 'Bearish symmetrical triangle measured move' has suggested a target of 1.4c


----------



## Country Lad

barney said:


> Did you get in pre or post breakout CL?




Neither, I just noticed it in results of a scan.  I made the comment here about AGE because I find it difficult to see any logic in persisting with PEN when there are opportunities elsewhere to make a profit instead of watching this one perform so miserably.

To put it into context, it is highly unlikely that PEN is going to do anything soon, if ever, that will increase its market cap by $10million.  

So looking at a $10 mil market cap increase, that will lead to a share price increase of 15% where the same MC increase will raise the AGE price by 65%.  Hence my comment about AGE here, it (or many other companies) doesn't need to find much to perform better than PEN in share price.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## dengo

Country Lad said:


> Hence my comment about AGE here, it (or many other companies) doesn't need to find much to perform better than PEN in share price.




Oh dear...


----------



## Karlos68

Country Lad said:


> it is highly unlikely that PEN is going to do anything soon, if ever, that will increase its market cap by $10million.
> 
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad





For your benefit Country Lad, a perfect descending wedge with decreasing volume




Thomas Bulkowski states that breakouts upwards occur 68% off the timeartyman:

PS Boggo, I shall respond in detail when I have plenty time


----------



## tech/a

Karlos68 said:


> For your benefit Country Lad, a perfect descending wedge with decreasing volume
> 
> View attachment 55302
> 
> 
> Thomas Bulkowski states that breakouts upwards occur 68% off the timeartyman:
> 
> PS Boggo, I shall respond in detail when I have plenty time




And for your information Bulkowski's research is for a falling wedge in a *BULL MARKET.*
PEN is full blown BEAR.

If your going to quote someones stats to someone who has been trading longer than you have been breathing.
*GET IT RIGHT.*

Personally my own research has shown patterns of this length to be un reliable.

Check out Bulkowskis ranking out of 23---1 being best!!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tech/a said:


> And for your information Bulkowski's research is for a falling wedge in a *BULL MARKET.*
> PEN is full blown BEAR.
> 
> If your going to quote someones stats to someone who has been trading longer than you have been breathing.
> *GET IT RIGHT.*
> 
> Personally my own research has shown patterns of this length to be un reliable.
> 
> Check out Bulkowskis ranking out of 23---1 being best!!!
> 
> 
> View attachment 55306




Agree totally tech.

PEN attracts this type of flawed analysis.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree totally tech.
> 
> PEN attracts this type of flawed analysis.
> 
> gg




Very nice to view a member of the "tech/a fan club" providing support for El Presidente



Im here for a Super Quick Hot Update






I know what ya thinking fellas.....The intensity and suspense is overwhelming


PS Fellas, there are delays and I wish to respond to my detractors in recent times  but my wife has pressing issues as "Power Of Attorney" for her parents......enough said...Yup, flippin inlaws





Even worse lads, Im Successor Power Of Attorney......ya don't want to know about it


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> PEN is full blown BEAR.




No need to incite panic to the masses tech/a.
Country Lad is also creating fear for sell downs by claiming no appearance for reason to buy
Im so looking forward to dissecting and correcting the big names on ASF


Karlos shall produce yet another chart to save the masses:bananasmi


Well flip, who would of thought ay lads

Anyone heard of Positive Divergence


----------



## tech/a

Yeh

Ever heard of divergence failure?


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> Yeh
> 
> Ever heard of divergence failure?




Mate, Ive been with family at Meremere drags today as well as watching V8 Supercars on SKY in NZ late this afternoon
Had some tasty consumption of Bourbon.......Maybe we sort the biff from the baff some day when it is clear as day that I am the one who is right again:


----------



## Karlos68

Wife has to see lawyer today regarding sorting her family, Im busy but action is getting close for PEN so Im choosing hurried response





> I think you may need to actually read what I said in that post, and what tech/a said in a follow up.



You have placed charts of projections previously Boggo. The chart in question was around 4 cents with an expectation to move a little above the previous 5.5 cent high, not unrealistic I would have thought. Should the projection have been to a dollar then yes, obvious comedy.
 HotCrapper had Pewal showing consolidation around this area before the next markup phrase using his David Wyckoff theory, and P n F charts which simply look like a game of tic tac toe gone horribly wrong.
Then tech/a had been knocking others efforts till you came along and produced your chart which was some Elliot Wave stuff, which appears you only need 1 hand to be able to count to 5, know the few  letters of the alphabet and have an ability to draw zig zag lines, and he gave you praise




> You have completely missed the comedy we had in that whole exercise.



Having read the posts in succession a couple weeks back, .....yeh, well,..... "just joking" huh?, OK, does sorta appear that way then.


----------



## Karlos68

> And for your information Bulkowski's research is for a falling wedge in a BULL MARKET.



The web page is titled "Bulkowskis Falling Wedge", the above reference you refer too is a small portion of his research and it appears your focus is upon this to once again knock my efforts.



> PEN is full blown BEAR.



Sort of contradicts the point of your first comment




> If your going to quote someones stats to someone who has been trading longer than you have been breathing.



Point taken



> GET IT RIGHT.



Sure did. I took my reference from the "Falling Wedge Identification Guide" section from the web page.

 More interesting facts:   Price Trend-Can be in any direction leading to the pattern.

Another goody:   Volume Trend-Trends downward 72% of the time until breakout.


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> Ever heard of divergence failure?




Nap.:dunno:, I was just having a quick glance at charts and decided to place it on ASF. Nothing is guaranteed, but it supports my expectation of a move upwards very soon 


 I have noticed large sells lately which is a concern. Refering to the Bulkowskis Falling Wedge page, another section has "Falling Wedge Trading Tips" which mentions: "Dip-After a downward breakout, price sometimes curls around the front of the wedge and soars upwards." Would not surprise myself if this occurs.   

For my Fib Fan chart to stay in motion, PEN has to get cranking soon, the day of reckoning is almost upon us


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> View attachment 55485



Oops, just noted chart cuts off at August.



Corrected chart showing to current


----------



## tech/a

Karlos68 said:


> Oops, just noted chart cuts off at August.
> 
> 
> 
> Corrected chart showing to current
> View attachment 55487




I see

So it worked well from AUGUST.

In your vast experience then---when would be a time to take a long trade to take advantage of this "Divergence"

AUGUST?
NOW?
NEXT YEAR?
NEVER?

Why are you using a Money Flow Oscillator to trade off of divergence?
Can you explain the benefits from say a stochastic or perhaps an RSI or Williams %R?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I can only describe the chart of PEN this calendar year as being woeful. 

Absolutely no interest from buyers, low volume, a trickling price downwards reminding me of of a prostate stock.







gg


----------



## Karlos68

tech/a said:


> In your vast experience then---when would be a time to take a long trade to take advantage of this "Divergence"



Previous few months.



> Why are you using a Money Flow Oscillator to trade off of divergence?



Was sitting back having a few to many bourbons, glanced, printed and shared it with the forum. It simply supports my view.


> Can you explain the benefits from say a stochastic or perhaps an RSI or Williams %R?



Nah, cant be bothered doing research, been off the liquor for a few weeks now, felt better get my butt into action as the new long term uptrend is upon us and I wanted to be the first to inform the masses:bananasmi



Been having a glance at chart back to 2000. Noted 90 degree angles so had a play and came up with this



Decided to have a closer look, also played with the Williams%R (shows my chart from late 2012 projecting  mid year low in 2013 was not bad)


Did a quick Google search and found my efforts are not new, Gann states thou that 90 Degree angles are strongest.



Decided to have a glance at Descending Wedges using quarterly candles with OBV


Note the last candle in all 4 wedges are red, thereafter is green
On the cusp of a new long term uptrend fellas:guitar:


----------



## mickqld

Karlos68 said:


> Previous few months.
> 
> 
> Was sitting back having a few to many bourbons, glanced, printed and shared it with the forum. It simply supports my view.
> 
> Nah, cant be bothered doing research, been off the liquor for a few weeks now, felt better get my butt into action as the new long term uptrend is upon us and I wanted to be the first to inform the masses:bananasmi
> 
> 
> 
> Been having a glance at chart back to 2000. Noted 90 degree angles so had a play and came up with this
> View attachment 56646
> 
> 
> Decided to have a closer look, also played with the Williams%R (shows my chart from late 2012 projecting  mid year low in 2013 was not bad)
> View attachment 56647
> 
> Did a quick Google search and found my efforts are not new, Gann states thou that 90 Degree angles are strongest.
> 
> 
> 
> Decided to have a glance at Descending Wedges using quarterly candles with OBV
> View attachment 56648
> 
> Note the last candle in all 4 wedges are red, thereafter is green
> On the cusp of a new long term uptrend fellas:guitar:




Well high volume last 2 days, SP up around 17%. I think your long term uptrend may have kicked off. Final SEIS due soon, SML due end March, funding announcements due end Q1 2014.


----------



## indeck

Thinking about re-entering this one after being burnt with Fukushima.  No strategic utility partner yet from what I can gather.  Will also take to 2017 to ramp up to 1.2m/lbs when they're saying capacity is 2.2 or so.  Any comments on PALA selling down (quite significantly)?


----------



## Zubana

indeck, "It's better to be lucky than smart"...

Buy.......your time to be lucky has arrived; you can be smart later when the smoke clears.

Love Zub.


----------



## NickyDee

hangseng said:


> Been a very long haul to this point but good to see it finally coming to fruition. Not over yet with a few hurdles in the way, but as you point out is a positive to take away. Clear the hearing, finance and a rise in the U price should (and I say SHOULD) clear the way for a sizeable sp increase next year.
> 
> In this market though who really knows, stocks with b'all but a few positive rock chip samples or drill results bought up (for a short while anyway),  and others now producing getting sold down.
> 
> It will be interesting to see the markets reaction, if any, to the positives with PEN later this year and early next.



It is a long road to full capacity production & a recovery of uranium prices appears not to be occurring, which will affect the margins, even on long-term contract price. 

Where is Hangseng, btw?


----------



## dengo

Short term uptrend broken today
Failure @ 3.1c double top support =

3.1 - (3.8 - 3.1) = 2.4c target


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Failure @ 3.1c double top support = 3.1 - (3.8 - 3.1) = 2.4c target




Double blow on the RSI today. Recent support failure and bearish center line cross points to more downside...


----------



## Karlos68

I discussed and posted a chart of Long Term Descending Wedges approx. 3 months ago



tech/a said:


> Personally my own research has shown patterns of this length to be un reliable.




I am unable to concur with your research.







A friendly reminder of my chart from a Quarter ago with updated chart below it confirming my foresight I shared with the masses


----------



## Jewels

PEN is ticking all the boxes, but the reality of a Uranium Spot price rapidly declining towards PENS cost of production means I'll be slipping these into the bottom drawer.  Unless Gus can put together a long term off take agreement at a substantial premium to the current Uranium spot price, say in excess of $50.00?pound, I cant see anyone prepared to take this into production.  Then if the spot price rises in the future, Gus will be shouted down by the market.
Forecast Uranium shortfall unlikely to eventuate until Germany and Japan start to turn back on reactors that were shut down post Fukishima.
Good luck to all long term holders


----------



## Karlos68

Jewels said:


> PEN is ticking all the boxes, but the reality of a Uranium Spot price rapidly declining towards PENS cost of production means I'll be slipping these into the bottom drawer.  Unless Gus can put together a long term off take agreement at a substantial premium to the current Uranium spot price, say in excess of $50.00?pound, I cant see anyone prepared to take this into production.  Then if the spot price rises in the future, Gus will be shouted down by the market.
> Forecast Uranium shortfall unlikely to eventuate until Germany and Japan start to turn back on reactors that were shut down post Fukishima.
> Good luck to all long term holders



Hi Jewels, thank you for your contribution
IMO it sounds abit Hotcrapperish
One must view charts to gain a perspective of where the SP of PEN is heading. I have felt my contributions clear any doubt the masses may have felt in regards to the short term movements of U308 in relation to the new long term uptrend PEN is in.
Given time I am sure this forum will increase in numbers once many receive confirmation within their own charts that an uptrend is in place. Therefore, once the masses place contributions to confirm uptrend, then I shall be in a position to say "See, told ya so:casanova:"


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> I have felt my contributions clear any doubt the masses may have felt in regards to the short term movements of U308 in relation to the new long term uptrend PEN is in.




Are you saying that PEN will rise as U falls Karlos?
All three PEN Pump'n'Dumps on your recent charts were on the back of a rising U price.
Spot U will hit $10 support during this glut...


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Are you saying that PEN will rise as U falls Karlos?



Nah, I stated "short term movements of U308".




> All three PEN Pump'n'Dumps on your recent charts were on the back of a rising U price.



I am at a loss to which charts you are referring dengo.

 I do recall on 19th October last year you predicted PEN would go to 1.5 cents, I then stated it would go up. PEN increased in price, I was right again, therefore, is your comment attempting to sling mud in retaliation due to myself outsmarting yourself dengo?





Had a quick play. Another work of art for the benefit of the masses


Almost there fellas, just a little lower on the RSI then another rally later this year.. You heard it first from me 






> Spot U will hit $10 support during this glut...



Bad news attracts the attention of the masses dengo.
Are you attempting to draw the crowds from Hot Crapper?


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> I am at a loss to which charts you are referring dengo.




This one Karlos.
I've taken the liberty of lining up your three PEN Pumps with my rising U, hope you don't mind.
I also adjusted the U chart to bring it up to date, ie $30.15





> Nah, I stated "short term movements of U308



Long term, short term, both are falling!






> I do recall on 19th October last year you predicted PEN would go to 1.5 cents, I then stated it would go up. PEN increased in price, I was right again, therefore, is your comment attempting to sling mud in retaliation due to myself outsmarting yourself dengo?




All kudos to you Karlos, 2c held that time, good luck next time!
I note the 'Tick Boxers' are spruiking today's hammer on the daily chart.
Pity they missed the 'Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern' and RSI uptrend breakdown on the weekly...


----------



## Karlos68

Woke this morning thinking about dengos comments from the other day, may have been in relation to this doozy from late 2012


I did go on and on and on that a dip in Feb 2013 with actual low mid year would be it. Proved to be good for a trade but not the long term higher low. Based nicely late last year, so I took a look at a 14 year chart to see how I could have been wrong in my projection. Then I spotted it, BOOM, with this 90 degree angle chart. I was out on the low by a few months  but so what.











> This one Karlos.
> I've taken the liberty of lining up your three PEN Pumps with my rising U, hope you don't mind.
> I also adjusted the U chart to bring it up to date, ie $30.15



I now see you were referring to long term uptrends being pump and dumps. Well they do say a picture speaks a thousand words. As this is how you view the charts dengo, then so be it.
View attachment 57828

OK, interesting assessment you have contributed dengo. I do think your effort is worthy to bear in mind. If you look at my OBV in that long term chart, you will note it in trending up  






> Long term, short term, both are falling!




View attachment 57825

You do realize this effort will instill fear to the masses.




> All kudos to you Karlos



Cheers



> good luck next time



No luck about it.:guitar:


----------



## dengo

dengo;820579: 4th-April-2014 09:26 PM said:
			
		

> Short term uptrend broken today
> Failure @ 3.1c double top support = 3.1 - (3.8 - 3.1) = 2.4c target
> 
> View attachment 57467




3.1c decisively broken today, along with the MACD center line bear cross
Double top measured move target = 2.4c


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> 3.1c decisively broken today, along with the MACD center line bear cross
> Double top measured move target = 2.4c
> 
> View attachment 57858



I appreciate your efforts dengo.


2.4 cents ya reckon.

Maybe bud, maybe.


PEN will form a higher low, the share price at which this will be is the dilemma. 
Some folks spend tens of thousands on technical analysis. For free, all one need do is Google search "Fibonacci calculator" and type in recent high and low.

I typed in "2" cents as previous low formed on an awesome long term higher low base and then "3.8" cents as this is the recent high in my predicted (actually will happen) long term uptrend.

The results:
50% retrace is 2.9 cents
61.8% retrace is 2.7 cents
76.4% retrace is 2.4 cents


With Fib retrace and  your measured move dengo, you could well nail this


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> I appreciate your efforts dengo.
> View attachment 57870
> 
> PEN will form a higher low, the share price at which this will be is the dilemma.




And I yours Karlos.
I put your rising support line on a monthly chart, (seeing as it's over a ten year time frame).
A touch in the near future would mean 1.5c or thereabouts. 
Kind regards


----------



## dengo

Appears to have been a short term bear flag break-out today
Measured move target = 2.1c


----------



## dengo

dengo;824952: Yesterday said:


> Appears to have been a short term bear flag break-out today
> Measured move target = 2.1c




Tested previous flag support today, which now acts as resistance.
Increasing volume compared to the action inside the flag confirms the pattern/target.
Price resumes the Bollinger band hugging down-trend.


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> And I yours Karlos.
> I put your rising support line on a monthly chart, (seeing as it's over a ten year time frame).
> A touch in the near future would mean 1.5c or thereabouts.
> Kind regards
> 
> View attachment 57905



Interesting dengo.
I have previously noted on my Fib based fan chart that perfection in touching the lower trendline would be about 1.8 cents. Proportional height vs width edits a chart. Admittedly I was taken back my ASB broker chart now proportionally shows lower trendline on Fib Based Fan chart touching lower trendline. Your proportions provides evidence of mid 1 cent lows. 
Possibly next few days we may see announcement PALA have sold again. Wonder if some some young dumbass running PEN account sold millions today due to viewing your charts on ASF dengo.


Mate, as buddy to buddy, moving the markets via Internet Forum Market Intervention is frowned upon by HC members. Ive supported your efforts previously when the masses pursued a witch hunt on your ass mate. 
In this instance, I have not spent time on working out the low, should one of your multitude of projections play out, then we all on ASF can clap and say "dengo, you the man bro, you the man'


----------



## Karlos68

colossus said:


> ..........., does anyone have any share price predictions?




How ironic 1 year ago that this poster is audible to the masses.




Disgraceful this member of ASF does not provide recent praise to the efforts for myself and dengo






Shame on you Col:bonk:


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> ...should one of your multitude of projections play out




Hi Karlos,
Pen's chart is revealing new patterns/targets at a rapid rate.
Projections are changing, but the direction isn't.
Today we have a short term rectangle with a measured target of 1.9c

"If the pattern is on the smaller size, then the expected price movement should mirror the price movement preceding the pattern."
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/rectangle_bearish.cfm




Thought this may be of interest, seeing that spot U has hit $28.50 today...


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> How ironic 1 year ago that this poster is audible to the masses.............................................



I was trying to say....

Ummmmm


Sort of like



Sheez, that flippin bourbon again colossus, ignore the late night antics in NZ, sorry bout that


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Hi Karlos,
> Pen's chart is revealing new patterns/targets at a rapid rate.
> Projections are changing, but the direction isn't.




Blah, blah, blah, blah........

Im not trying to be a smart alec dengo. My point is Ive heard this nonsense before on HC by respected members attempting to save the masses. 


When I get around to it, I shall build a chart combining my 90 degree and Fib based fan chart with possibly other charts/ indicators overlaid to project the movements that will happen in the next few years for PEN.

V8 supercars to look forward to this weekend
Till next time:bekloppt:


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> Ive heard this nonsense before on HC by respected members attempting to save the masses.




Not interested in saving anyone/calling bottoms etc, just providing some balance to the dross that passes for TA over there.
Golden Crosses, Flag Formations, Ascending Triangles  :bad:


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Not interested in saving anyone/calling bottoms etc, just providing some balance to the dross that passes for TA over there.
> Golden Crosses, Flag Formations, Ascending Triangles  :bad:
> 
> View attachment 57990




Ok dengo, nice post.
I do concur with your Wyckoff Market Cycle chart as it plays to my long term uptrend 

Also a worthy mention of your Pump N Dump chart recently. They had intraday lows before rallies during the long term downtrend last few years. Late last year PEN based at 2 cents, your only need check back longer than a decade and you will see history repeating again, rock on next few years to the higher high


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> I do concur with your Wyckoff Market Cycle chart.....................






Just noted Wyckoff chart was an overlay for recent 3.8 cent rally earlier this year.

Short Term or Long Term, Wyckoff chart all the same


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Where is tech/a when you need him?

gg


----------



## Boggo

They didn't listen to him in 2011 so I doubt if he would even be the least bit interested in posting a view now.

I would be more more interested in hearing from Hangseng and colB etc. Haven't seen much of them on here for a while 



tech/a said:


> Touching.
> 
> I just cant get past an "Investor" that sits buy and watches his "Investment"
> lose 60% of its value and fail to capitalize on it! Whilst talking it up in the 10c+ area yet stone quiet at 6c-7c.
> 
> You guys puff each other up as astute value investors yet I see some pretty basic investment errors in the short time Ive been on this thread. Rose colored glasses.
> 
> Just another opinion.


----------



## dengo

Boggo said:


> I would be more more interested in hearing from Hangseng and colB etc.




I'll second that!
I'm anxious to hear about all the boxes PEN have been ticking recently...

Weekly chart shows another bearish MACD cross / bearish RSI center line cross combination
I've marked the last couple of times this has occurred 
Note the price action that followed


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Where is tech/a when you need him?
> 
> gg




For the benefit of the masses, I shall explain Garpul Gumnuts post for you all:
GG is requesting tech/a to hold his hand


----------



## Karlos68

Boggo said:


> They didn't listen to him in 2011 so I doubt if he would even be the least bit interested in posting a view now.



I presume "They" are the masses. 




> I would be more more interested in hearing from Hangseng and colB etc. Haven't seen much of them on here for a while



Problem is boggo, we get individuals like GG dealing a baseball bat to "reichmans" knees some time ago which may have  instilled  fear to individuals who wish to share a fundamental view without intimidation.


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> I'll second that!
> I'm anxious to hear about all the boxes PEN have been ticking recently...
> 
> Weekly chart shows another bearish MACD cross / bearish RSI center line cross combination
> I've marked the last couple of times this has occurred
> Note the price action that followed




Hey dengo, you and I have placed projections recently. Seems some think our contributions are nonsense.
When I have built my projection chart for next few years, I shall open a competition for the next PEN rally as to "approx. share price" and "approx when this will occur" competition. I shall set the rules. Time for some to Put Up or Shut Up. I  do place specific invitation to boggo, GG and  tech/a. Invitation is to all. Naturally I wish your effort dengo. I will definitely place an effort, in the unlikely event I am wrong, I wont say "Hahahaha, I was just kidding"


I shall be in touch fellas, night night:bekloppt:


----------



## Karlos68

Sad state of affairs when an individual who places F/A well in advance of events unfolding for PEN sees the masses dealing to the individual on HC. 



Karlos68 said:


> I appreciate your efforts dengo.
> 
> 
> 2.4 cents ya reckon.
> 
> Maybe bud, maybe.
> View attachment 57870
> 
> PEN will form a higher low, the share price at which this will be is the dilemma.
> Some folks spend tens of thousands on technical analysis. For free, all one need do is Google search "Fibonacci calculator" and type in recent high and low.
> 
> I typed in "2" cents as previous low formed on an awesome long term higher low base and then "3.8" cents as this is the recent high in my predicted (actually will happen) long term uptrend.
> 
> The results:
> 50% retrace is 2.9 cents
> 61.8% retrace is 2.7 cents
> 76.4% retrace is 2.4 cents
> 
> 
> With Fib retrace and  your measured move dengo, you could well nail this





:fu:Yeah bro, sold my DTE at 16.5 cents as looking cooked on the RSI. Placed a buy on PEN for 620k at 2.5 cents as RSI getting to oversold (as predicted by my charts in advance). Decided by myself that the lowest it could go is 2.4.  

Kudos to yourself dengo as one of your multitude of projections was 2.4 cents. I feel the need to applause, I do hope the masses follow suite:dance:


When I get the chance, I shall assist the masses with a chart




PS Once upon a time we had Batman and Robin..........then Superman and Superboy..........modern times we have Karlos and Dengo


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Had a quick play. Another work of art for the benefit of the masses
> View attachment 57823
> 
> Almost there fellas, just a little lower on the RSI then another rally later this year.. You heard it first from me








Lets glance at a chart to see if Ive nailed it again.






Well look at that would ya:guitar:.  I told ya so. Not so long ago I placed an order for 620k at 2.5 cent  as likely low would be 2.4 cent based on T/A. 
Decided to sell my short term trade yesterday at 3 cents because I just felt like it. No T/A reason, simply because.
Have my long term holds in 2 other accounts which I plan to sell at a later date.
Massively busy at work. Meeting with Lawyer this Wednesday in regards to possibly proceeding with Defamation case  against my wifes asshole Uncle. Busy, busy, to much boozing also (any folk offended by my posts need to harden up, its a faceless forum for flips sake), so need a break on saving the masses. 

Its all up to you now Super Dengo, the masses need you, be brave, they need saving
I know this as I torture myself senseless due to reading HC


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Where is tech/a when you need him?
> 
> gg






Boggo said:


> They didn't listen to him in 2011 so I doubt if he would even be the least bit interested in posting a view now.
> 
> I would be more more interested in hearing from Hangseng and colB etc. Haven't seen much of them on here for a while






dengo said:


> I'll second that!
> I'm anxious to hear about all the boxes PEN have been ticking recently...
> 
> Weekly chart shows another bearish MACD cross / bearish RSI center line cross combination
> I've marked the last couple of times this has occurred
> Note the price action that followed
> 
> View attachment 57992






Karlos68 said:


> For the benefit of the masses, I shall explain Garpul Gumnuts post for you all:
> GG is requesting tech/a to hold his hand




Quite the opposite. I merely wished for tech/a's expertise as he is the most eloquent in displaying your relative ignorance of matters technical. 



Karlos68 said:


> Lets glance at a chart to see if Ive nailed it again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 58171
> 
> Well look at that would ya:guitar:.  I told ya so. Not so long ago I placed an order for 620k at 2.5 cent  as likely low would be 2.4 cent based on T/A.
> Decided to sell my short term trade yesterday at 3 cents because I just felt like it. No T/A reason, simply because.
> Have my long term holds in 2 other accounts which I plan to sell at a later date.
> Massively busy at work. Meeting with Lawyer this Wednesday in regards to possibly proceeding with Defamation case  against my wifes asshole Uncle. Busy, busy, to much boozing also (any folk offended by my posts need to harden up, its a faceless forum for flips sake), so need a break on saving the masses.
> 
> Its all up to you now Super Dengo, the masses need you, be brave, they need saving
> I know this as I torture myself senseless due to reading HC




Despite the unwelcome re-iteration of your dispute with your wife's uncle, the poor sod, may I ask you to reflect again on the chart and give an "expert" opinion on how you see PEN, a darling of the desperate, going.






gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Quite the opposite. I merely wished for tech/a's expertise as he is the most eloquent in displaying your relative ignorance of matters technical.



My ignorance???          UP YOURS


> Despite the unwelcome re-iteration of your dispute with your wife's uncle, the poor sod, may I ask you to reflect again on the chart and give an "expert" opinion on how you see PEN, a darling of the desperate, going.




Don't you even start with my wifes Uncle, lawyers (yes 2) have stated previously you can do him for his actions, its a matter of if we wish to pursue to prove a point.

As the overall tone of your post is to request an "expert"  statement from myself as to the next high in which PEN will run to then, ...."Nah, cant help, you are not at kindergarten anymore bro, seek assistance from your fellow Aussies as this Kiwi is no longer holding ya hand:swear:"


----------



## Joe Blow

Karlos68 said:


> My ignorance???          UP YOURS




Karlos, is this really necessary? Please stop provoking others, and avoid posting while under the influence of alcohol.

Back on topic please.


----------



## dengo

dengo;824952 12th-May-2014 08:14 PM said:
			
		

> Appears to have been a short term bear flag break-out today
> Measured move target = 2.1c
> View attachment 57925




Currently testing 2.6c support line of the longer term rectangle
Bearish RSI center line cross suggests support will soon fail
If it does, target = 2.6 - (3.1 - 2.6) = 2.1c


----------



## Karlos68

Excuse my harshness GG.
I shall reply in a respectable manner in time.






dengo said:


> Currently testing 2.6c support line of the longer term rectangle
> Bearish RSI center line cross suggests support will soon fail
> If it does, target = 2.6 - (3.1 - 2.6) = 2.1c
> 
> View attachment 58211




OK dengo, I think you are wrong, my explanation as to why below



Update on my 90 degree angle chart with another chart showing accumulation in progress before markup. (For the benefit of HC members reading this post, that's a higher low)


Just a matter of time before PEN breaks from this Ascending Channel


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> OK dengo, I think you are wrong, my explanation as to why below
> Update on my 90 degree angle chart with another chart showing accumulation in progress before markup. (For the benefit of HC members reading this post, that's a higher low) Just a matter of time before PEN breaks from this Ascending Channel
> View attachment 58299






So Karlos, barring consolidation, PEN will hit 22c before 2.1c, (not my lowest call)?
22c will give PEN a market cap 2.3 x PDN's current $352,000,000!


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> So Karlos, PEN will hit 22c before 2.1c



You sly dog dengo, you have already had a fiddle with my 90 degree chart. For those who do not possess printer,straight edge and red&blue pens at home, my chart below is likely similar to dengo working my original contribution.









> 22c will give PEN a market cap 2.3 x PDN's current $352,000,000!



gibidabaddawa..... gibbadabbiyawwa:bonk:
So what? Who cares? Not me
Sounds Hot Crapperish dengo.
Here is a chart showing irrelevance of PEN Market Crapitalisation to Share Price.








PS Hey look, here is a daily chart of Uranium Spot Price


Just saying fellas......just saying


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ........................... may I ask you to reflect again on the chart and give an "expert" opinion on how you see PEN, a darling of the desperate, going.
> 
> gg




I appreciate your politeness Garpul.

If you had said "......give an expert opinion on how you see PEN, a darling of the desperate going and I will be your best friend", then I may have provided an answer.


PS Refer my 90 degree chart (showing long term trend high in 2017) above I provided for dengo, slap another couple of my charts over and you may have a similar expectation for trades to mine.


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> Here is a chart showing irrelevance of PEN Market Crapitalisation to Share Price.
> View attachment 58355




What's 15.5c - 90% Karlos?

1.55c


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> What's 15.5c - 90% Karlos?
> 
> 1.55c





Good grief dengo, are you hanging out at the New Hot Even Crappier website lately? 

The simplicity of my chart is to provide clarification as to the obvious idiocy that the masses  on HC sometimes raise in relation to MC. 
Clearly would not be exact figures but coincidently close when one applies 3 seconds of thought to my chart.

I hope my explanation assists.


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Thought this may be of interest, seeing that spot U has hit $28.50 today...
> 
> View attachment 57972






Karlos68 said:


> PS Hey look, here is a daily chart of Uranium Spot Price
> View attachment 58356
> 
> Just saying fellas......just saying




Spot hit $28.25 today Karlos, (below your support line)

Did you see this recent article?

"...RBC Capital Markets Analysts said worldwide supply currently exceeds demand, and with excess inventories accumulated since Fukushima, is not expecting things to improve until at least 2021.
Uranium mining stocks, already battered in recent times, were sent lower on Thursday off the back of the report."

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/price-collapse-sees-junior-miner-ditch-uranium-to


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Spot hit $28.25 today Karlos, (below your support line)



I stated I was "Just saying"







> Did you see this recent article?



Nah, don't care to be honest dengo


----------



## dengo

dengo;825460 15th-May-2014 06:51 PM said:
			
		

> Pen's chart is revealing new patterns/targets at a rapid rate. Today we have a short term rectangle with a measured target of 1.9c
> 
> View attachment 57971




Weekly rectangle breakdown + MACD bearish center line cross points to a 1.9c target


----------



## Karlos68

So your current thoughts for another share price low projection possibility is 1.9 cents dengo.


Previous was 2.1 cents, what happened to 2 cents

1.8 cents on the cards


1.55 cents maybe



Sub 1 cents in the realm





Karlos68 said:


> My projection for a sub 2 cent low is still on track.



I could well nail this again


----------



## Karlos68

Decided to provide a superhot update on PEN




Well look at that, candlesticks following downtrendline to touch long term uptrendline, OBV indicator needs to run a little more to touch uptrend line, El Capo (legend chartist) always said PEN must go sub 2 cents before heading upwards again.


1.9 cents ya reckon dengo, Im picking another round of applause is heading your way


----------



## dengo

Karlos68 said:


> El Capo (legend chartist) always said PEN must go sub 2 cents before heading upwards again.




Like the rest of the starry-eyed rampers Karlos, that blowhard ignored the possibility of current uranium prices, ($46.50 by Dec 2012 was the final proclamation). 

As for PEN, 1.7c in 2013 was the claim...



> 1.9 cents ya reckon dengo, Im picking another round of applause is heading your way




No need for that Karlos, that's just a pattern target, not the final low I fear.
More confident there won't be a "massive lift off along with uranium wave 3" to follow, LOL


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> As for PEN, 1.7c in 2013 was the claim...



yeah?.......well........present 2.2 cents could also be the higher low before upward trend resumes dengo.


Ya see....its like this.... I look at my 90 degree PEN chart then I look at my ****. Looking at my **** on Monday I said to my wife lets exchange some kiwi cash now for $2000 Aussie cash, as we are planning a holiday to Gold Coast in one year. Visiting Dream World. Oldest son will be almost 18 and probably close to leaving home so likely last family vacation. When we finish our holiday, board our return flight to NZ and he asks if Ive left anything behind in Australia?...I shall say "Just my poos and wees son"


Back on topic, lets talk about my ****. El Capo had a TSI which stood for Top Secret Indicator. I have good **** which stands for Super Hot number 1 Tool. Shall post chart next few days, chart will be self explanatory as to why we could be up, up and away soon


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> As for PEN, 1.7c in 2013 was the claim...




Correct dengo. El Capo repeatedly said 1.7 to 1.8 cents would be the low and timing the low is the hard part.
Your efforts, El Capos prediction and my 90 degree chart indicate sub 2 cents finally arriving.

Then I look at my Super Hot number 1 Tool I stumbled across about 2 years ago and am thinking we could be up, up and away towards the 20 cents plus high in 2017 before touch down on my Fan Chart.

 Ive marked PEN highs and lows on the chart, hundreds of stocks on the ASX and Kiwi exchanges and the AUS/NZ Dollar chart has a unique correlation to PEN, check it out.



Flippin awesome huh


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Just a matter of time before PEN breaks from this Ascending Channel





I endured some pain and read HC
Seems a Top 20 holder is at his wits end, confirmation for myself a rally is uncoming. I already know in advance that this is going to happen. For those who feel intellect exists on HC, I have provided a simple chart as to why I will be right again


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> ..........a rally is uncoming. I already know in advance that this is going to happen.................



Oops, meant "upcoming"




Quick glance at lastest 90 degree and long term OBV chart




Looking good fellas


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> Did you see this recent article?
> 
> "...RBC Capital Markets Analysts said worldwide supply currently exceeds demand, and with excess inventories accumulated since Fukushima, is not expecting things to improve until at least 2021.
> Uranium mining stocks, already battered in recent times, were sent lower on Thursday off the back of the report."[/URL]





Hahahahahaha............As previously stated "I don't care".


Should suck the masses into selling shares at the bottom (Sad I know)



How about we look chart......

.....look chart.....


....Look chart............Must always look chart dengo





No demand until 2021 ya reckon dengo
Strewth dengo, here is a daily chart of Spot Price which appears to be sky rocketing to outer space.


Above a weekly chart which suggests Ascending Triangle has broken upwards.



Look chart, look chart......Must always look chart







Or read Karlos posts to foresee the future


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Do tell.



gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Do tell.
> 
> 
> gg




Hahahahahaha.....I found the video highly amusing GG. I cracked up 




I believe your contribution is suggesting I shall be wrong?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Karlos68 said:


> Hahahahahaha.....I found the video highly amusing GG. I cracked up
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I believe your contribution is suggesting I shall be wrong?




I'm a punter, Karlos, and I'd never accuse another punter of being wrong.

I just don't reckon you are right. 

Good on you if it defies gravity.

gg


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I just don't reckon you are right.
> 
> 
> gg




Ok Garpul, thank you for a civilized reply.

I have been working on my expanding Fib based Fan chart. The rise in SP of Uranium supports an expectation in rising SP of PEN. I do not know when the break out in uranium will be, but I expect it will show when PEN bolts in a rally. I believe PEN will be at a much higher share price in early 2015. I do not wish to reveal my expectations. We had seen PALA dumping many millions into previous rally. I expect to sell my long term holds in early 2015. Should PEN play to my expectations, I shall place a chart that night as to why I sold and why I believe that it is the rally high


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm a punter, Karlos, and I'd never accuse another punter of being wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> Good on you if it defies gravity.
> 
> gg



My expectations are still on course, repeating action in PEN continues (although recent short term RSI uptrend has broke and I do see a descending channel that started from March 2014.) PEN will have to get cranking in the near future. 

I am aware PEN could turn to crap. Good example of an expanding long term Fan formation is GGG. From 2008 it grew until breaking in mid 2012. Bit sad.


I realize I do not need to hold your hand GG, but for the benefit of the masses, my doozy chart from late 2012 showing 1x2 and an overlay on 90 degree angle chart displaying a very rough guide to my expectations up to 2017.


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> here is a daily chart of Spot Price which appears to be sky rocketing to outer space.
> View attachment 58949
> 
> 
> Look chart, look chart......Must always look chart










Lets look chart



Strewth


----------



## Karlos68

Hi fellas, I hope all you Aussies are well


Talk about an awesome weekend of racing cars last weekend

Kiwis Shane van Gis and Scott McLaughlin kicking butt at Aussie V8 Supercars at Eastern Creek. Kiwi Earl Bamber nailing Porsche in Euro and Kiwi Scott D  at Indy in States kicking butt. 


Enough about us awesome Kiwis









Decided to POP IN and see whats happening at PEN




Lets look U308


Holy toledos Batman, the charts don't lie:fu:



PS Superhot update coming soon


----------



## Karlos68

Flip, PEN touched 1.9 cents






Karlos68 said:


> ...................we shall see sub 2 cents



See, told ya so


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> I am aware PEN could turn to crap.



Expanding Fan still choice
OBV still fine
Darn 90 degree angle chart becoming a worry


----------



## uraniumhead

*PEN - uranium sector turning around*

PEN has a potentially fantastic project in the US. What bothers me is the outstanding loan from BlackRock that's due in December. Anyone have any ideas how will PEN go about refinancing this loan?


----------



## dengo

dengo_ 14th-June-2014 06:26 PM  said:


> What's 15.5c - 90% Karlos?
> 
> 1.55c




Looking like the bearish rectangle's about to break out

Measured move target = 2.0 - (2.7 - 2.2) = 1.5c





http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/rectangle_bearish.cfm


----------



## Karlos68

dengo said:


> I put your rising support line on a monthly chart, (seeing as it's over a ten year time frame).
> A touch in the near future would mean 1.5c or thereabouts.
> 
> 
> View attachment 57905







Recent sub 2 cents price action has finally touched the lower trendline of my Fibonacci based Fan chart


C & E is a 90 degree angle.

Fibonacci Golden Ratio
A x 1.618 = B
B=C
D x 1.618 = E


Rock on 2015:guitar:


----------



## Karlos68

For the sake of those with an interest










Oh the suspense:grinsking


----------



## dengo

dengo;852370_8th-December-2014 08:46 PM said:
			
		

> Looking like the bearish rectangle's about to break out
> Measured move target = 2.0 - (2.7 - 2.2) = 1.5c




Bear Flag break-out on surging volume
Previous RSI support tested and now resistance
Slow Stochastic bearish cross below 50

Measured move target = 2.0 - (2.7 - 1.5) = 0.8c




http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/flag_bearish.cfm


----------



## Karlos68

As the days roll into weeks, so the weeks roll into months and the posts become far and few between.





Is it time to flick off the lights??








or 












Karlos68 said:


> El Capo (legend chartist) always said PEN must go sub 2 cents before heading upwards again.








Lets look chart




A tear of sadness speaks volumes,.....praise the saviour.....for he proclaimed timing the low is the hard part........for his memory is held within thy heart.......All hail the almighty El Capo.......The Messiahld:


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Lets look chart
> View attachment 62325
> 
> 
> 
> ....praise the saviour.....for he proclaimed timing the low is the hard part.........All hail the almighty El Capo.......The Messiahld:






As I look toward the night sky, I have fond memories of thy holiness El Capo stating PEN must move sub 2 cents before the rise upwards......



I request all thee to stand, bow heads and pray gratitude to El Capo the almighty, ......as I now present evidence of the occurring prophecy he foretold to the masses


----------



## Karlos68

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Where is tech/a when you need him?
> 
> gg



No stress GG, I will save us.




Fortunately work had been quiet for myself on Thursday and Friday this week, so I was firmly planted in front of ASB Securities Trading Screen

Saw buyers build at open on Thursday.

BAM...3 cents gone

BAM 2.9 cents gone

Satisfied the RSI indicator is simply not cooling before another move upwards from the Overbrought situation, PEN in another historical rally and fall, I dumped 1140000 at 2.8 cents on Thursday.

Couldn't believe my luck that open on Friday there was approx. another 1.5 million for sale at 2.8 cents.......BAM, Karlos smashed 890000 soon after open.


Shall provide my expectation of PEN upcoming movements via chart in near future. 

Karlos


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> No stress GG, I will save us.




Flip...2.6 cents today. Who would of thought Share Price may trend down?



> Satisfied the RSI indicator is simply not cooling before another move upwards from the Overbrought situation, PEN in another historical rally and fall, I dumped 1140000 at 2.8 cents on Thursday.
> 
> Couldn't believe my luck that open on Friday there was approx. another 1.5 million for sale at 2.8 cents.......BAM, Karlos smashed 890000 soon after open.



Oh that's right....I did.




> Shall provide my expectation of PEN upcoming movements via chart in near future.
> 
> Karlos



  Still coming fellas.......still coming


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> I will save us.
> 
> Shall provide my expectation of PEN upcoming movements via chart in near future.




Apologies for keeping all in suspense.




My chart depicts the forward movement of PEN







Time to hibernate:sleeping:


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Saw buyers build at open on Thursday.
> 
> BAM...3 cents gone
> 
> BAM 2.9 cents gone




Oops.....My error....Not "buyers build", meant "sellers build".


----------



## piggybank

Up 10% today. I don't own shares in this company.


----------



## penergy

Hey Karlos

I took great amusement in reviewing your recent prophecies over here too, FYI


----------



## Miner

Karlos68 said:


> Oops.....My error....Not "buyers build", meant "sellers build".




Karlos, Hangseng (now absent from PEN thread for long time), GG, Piggy Banks and host of posters on PEN

For long time i have not visited PEN thread or looked into PEN.
I noticed last year it was traded under 2 cents and now it is plus 60 cents.
Is it real ?? Or there was any consolidation ?
If it is real, guys who held PEN for a year should be driving Ferrari ?
On a similar front, Karlos, you provided amazing charts . 
Thanks folks


----------



## penergy

Miner said:


> Karlos, Hangseng (now absent from PEN thread for long time), GG, Piggy Banks and host of posters on PEN
> 
> For long time i have not visited PEN thread or looked into PEN.
> I noticed last year it was traded under 2 cents and now it is plus 60 cents.
> Is it real ?? Or there was any consolidation ?
> If it is real, guys who held PEN for a year should be driving Ferrari ?
> On a similar front, Karlos, you provided amazing charts .
> Thanks folks




Miner,

PEN had a 40:1 consolodation, so the share price in real terms for you is 1.65 cents. 

Karlos' charts are rubbish and for every one correct one you show me, I can show you 5 nonsense ones.


----------



## Miner

penergy said:


> Miner,
> 
> PEN had a 40:1 consolodation, so the share price in real terms for you is 1.65 cents.
> 
> Karlos' charts are rubbish and for every one correct one you show me, I can show you 5 nonsense ones.




Mate Penergy
Thanks for the clarification on the consolidation of PEN. I can revisit my situation on PEN. That was a great help.
Sorry to learn about your comments on charts. I  being a miner more of a fundamentalist on real values of resource industry  (don't misinterpret  with those fundamentalists  in Myanmar or Syria though) , still struggle to draw charts. So I always take help of the admin secretary or junior staff  So in short, I am incompetent to  comment on the values  any chart because I am unable to draw them.


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Apologies for keeping all in suspense.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My chart depicts the forward movement of PEN
> 
> View attachment 63058
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Time to hibernate:sleeping:




Hey fellas, been a while since I foretold all in advance the future movements of PEN, last time I placed a chart claiming well in advance that PEN share price will once again touch the lower trendline was back on 17/6/15.


Lets check it out if I nailed yet another prediction



Well flip...yup..Ive nailed it again....
as per usual.....just the tricky part is the timing........Only a HC member would be an id..t to claim my charts are rubbish.


----------



## penergy

Karlos68 said:


> Hey fellas, been a while since I foretold all in advance the future movements of PEN, last time I placed a chart claiming well in advance that PEN share price will once again touch the lower trendline was back on 17/6/15.
> 
> 
> Lets check it out if I nailed yet another prediction
> View attachment 67819
> 
> Well flip...yup..Ive nailed it again....
> as per usual.....just the tricky part is the timing........Only a HC member would be an id..t to claim my charts are rubbish.




Karlos, 

You can't just draw a new chart with new lines and claim you prediected the points on it!!!!  

You also shouldn't be giving youself a pat on the back for getting timing A YEAR wrong

Please stop this nonsense immediately before you actually cost someone some money


----------



## penergy

Miner said:


> Mate Penergy
> Thanks for the clarification on the consolidation of PEN. I can revisit my situation on PEN. That was a great help.
> Sorry to learn about your comments on charts. I  being a miner more of a fundamentalist on real values of resource industry  (don't misinterpret  with those fundamentalists  in Myanmar or Syria though) , still struggle to draw charts. So I always take help of the admin secretary or junior staff  So in short, I am incompetent to  comment on the values  any chart because I am unable to draw them.




No probs Miner,

TA can be useful for sure - just beware the rogue ones who pretend they can do it. 

Karlos is a good example, if you dig back through all his charts they are wildly inconsistent and if things don't go as he anticipated, he just draws a new chart with 'super hot updates' /changes, and claims he was right all along.


----------



## penergy

Karlos68 said:


> Well flip...yup..Ive nailed it again....
> as per usual.....just the tricky part is the timing........Only a HC member would be an id..t to claim my charts are rubbish.




Karlos, 

You are a H.C member too,   so that's a bit of a stupid statement for you to make. 

That said, we would be really thrilled if you decided to leave H.C.

Cheers


----------



## Karlos68

Miner said:


> Karlos, Hangseng (now absent from PEN thread for long time), GG, Piggy Banks and host of posters on PEN
> 
> For long time i have not visited PEN thread or looked into PEN.
> I noticed last year it was traded under 2 cents and now it is plus 60 cents.
> Is it real ?? Or there was any consolidation ?
> If it is real, guys who held PEN for a year should be driving Ferrari ?
> On a similar front, Karlos, you provided amazing charts .
> Thanks folks




Cheers Miner

I rejoined sharetrading forums few weeks back.
A member on the well known forum placed a chart which is wrong and I placed my first chart in opposition upon my return on 1/8/16 indicating the future movement of PEN, being this below




Due to the usual nonsense ramping upon HC, how could I not state how awesome I am to the masses, inform themselves how lucky they are to have a God like presence (obviously myself) upon the forum to provide foresight ld:.........Well........Resentment from one individual ensued, travelling across the vastness of cyberspace to get me, hunt me down, sling mud at my awesome name..........I am looking forward to the coming time as PEN is about to go down, being the chart below




PS Hey Penergy, notice buyers starting to disappear...........Hhhahhhahhhaaaaaaa......you might have something upon your face shortly:fan........Hhhahhahhhaaaaaaa


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> ......Resentment from one individual ensued, travelling across the vastness of cyberspace to get me, hunt me down, sling mud at my awesome name..........I am looking forward to the coming time as PEN is about to go down, being the chart below
> View attachment 67852
> 
> 
> 
> PS Hey Penergy, ...........Hhhahhhahhhaaaaaaa......you might have something upon your face shortly:fan........Hhhahhahhhaaaaaaa










Hhhahhahhhaaaa.....See, told ya so:casanova:


----------



## Karlos68

penergy said:


> Karlos,
> 
> You are a H.C member,   we would be really thrilled if you decided to leave H.C.
> 
> Cheers





WTF



You fellas need me to save you all





See


----------



## Karlos68




----------



## Karlos68




----------



## Karlos68




----------



## Karlos68




----------



## Miner

After a long time, I am visiting PEN site. Hangseng used to be a great supporter of PEN when it was hovering around 3 (?) cents. I could see PEN rose up by 7 times over that time and surely the believers have reaped a fortune by holding it. Gus Simpson has retired or left and Warwick G has retired. All new management and I was absent to follow this scrip . 
DNU and Hangseng, if you are still holding, would be a multi-millionaire with your holding by now.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Miner said:


> After a long time, I am visiting PEN site. Hangseng used to be a great supporter of PEN when it was hovering around 3 (?) cents. I could see PEN rose up by 7 times over that time and surely the believers have reaped a fortune by holding it. Gus Simpson has retired or left and Warwick G has retired. All new management and I was absent to follow this scrip .
> DNU and Hangseng, if you are still holding, would be a multi-millionaire with your holding by now.




The only problem Hangseng has is that since he was waxing lyrical about PEN it has undergone a 1 in 40 share consolidation and if memory shares me correct, also a share dilution.

So a 40 share price now is equivalent to 1c now, or less. 

Profit or loss = Money spent acquiring shares minus money spent disposing of them.

gg


----------



## Miner

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The only problem Hangseng has is that since he was waxing lyrical about PEN it has undergone a 1 in 40 share consolidation and if memory shares me correct, also a share dilution.
> 
> So a 40 share price now is equivalent to 1c now, or less.
> 
> Profit or loss = Money spent acquiring shares minus money spent disposing of them.
> 
> gg



HEY GG.
Nice to hear back from you. I realised my dyslexia about share consolidation on PEN and thanks to all. I am however sorry to know losses (unless he sold them out) of Hang Seng. He was honestly loved PEN and suddenly sublimed.
How are you doing anyway mate?
Hi Joe - I will try to a returned regular on ASF again.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Thanks Miner,

A few non lethal wounds kept me out of circulation these past few years and there is a new Mrs Gumnut, a rather astute fit lassie with a law degree from Guangzhou who finalised a decent civil departure from the last two Mrs Gumnuts. 

She runs about the walking tracks of Townsville in Yoga pants and is posted in the local emergency department along with Ice as a danger to gentlemen of my vintage. 

I'm just looking forward to the V8's from my vantage point at the Ross Island Hotel.

I'm more conservative with my stock picks and leave PEN to the experts. 

Hang Seng is a good bloke and I'm sure he will re-appear, as PEN,  is as we speak being professed on inferior forums to ASF as the next best thing. 

To my knowledge I am the only person ever to make a profit out of PEN and that was more ass than class to honest.

gg


----------



## Miner

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks Miner,
> 
> A few non lethal wounds kept me out of circulation these past few years and there is a new Mrs Gumnut, a rather astute fit lassie with a law degree from Guangzhou who finalised a decent civil departure from the last two Mrs Gumnuts.
> 
> She runs about the walking tracks of Townsville in Yoga pants and is posted in the local emergency department along with Ice as a danger to gentlemen of my vintage.
> 
> I'm just looking forward to the V8's from my vantage point at the Ross Island Hotel.
> 
> I'm more conservative with my stock picks and leave PEN to the experts.
> 
> Hang Seng is a good bloke and I'm sure he will re-appear, as PEN,  is as we speak being professed on inferior forums to ASF as the next best thing.
> 
> To my knowledge I am the only person ever to make a profit out of PEN and that was more ass than class to honest.
> 
> gg



Mate GG.
Enjoy in the arms and cuddle of Yoga Lassie  and surely third time you would be lucky for sure. I should now buy the shares of the company making blue pill for sure ! (Ha Ha) .
All the best .


----------



## Karlos68

Karlos68 said:


> Lets look chart
> View attachment 62325
> 
> 
> 
> ld:




Sheez....20th April 2015 was last time we were at lower trendline of a PEN Descending Wedge just prior to the rally I foretold would happen.............now here we are again.


----------



## Karlos68

Anyone thinking of selling PEN?.........Plenty spaces available


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

PEN. 

I must look at PEN again. 

I reckon I'm the only non board member or employee to ever make a quid out of them. 

gg


----------



## Karlos68




----------



## Karlos68

Super Hot Update of U308 Monthly Spot Price


----------



## jetblack

Its like coming back to a High School reunion " Hey what you dudes been up to". What would have been , so many story to tell. 
This thread should be bronzed just like the baby shoes and stand for ever in the Stock Forum hall of fame. As a testament to shareholders resilience. I applaud all those who contributed to the thread and have a lot of respect that they stood by their convictions, whether right or wrong, who was to know.
Easy to reflect now, but  gee it would make a good movie.
This dog was loved.
Vale.


----------



## greggles

Peninsula Energy staging a comeback on news that Japan's energy mix target for 2030 is 20-22% nuclear, 22-24% renewable and 26% coal-fired, which will require them to restart a further 21 nuclear reactors over the next 12 years.

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2018/07/17/uranium-week-japan-moves-forward/


----------



## HelloU

bump
bottom maybe-supply in low 30's is real and plenty there even with vol (as in a real delay to chug through) but I do not think I will retire on this.
hello to all those that ignore me ....hope you bumped into AQZ back whenever.
toot toot


----------



## Ann

Geez us! A 1 for 40 consolidation on 5 Oct 2015 ahead of a listing on the NYSE MKT later that year.

Thanks for the heads up on this tech/a hope they didn't get you.

Don't panic folks this is old news. It is simply related to Consolidations.

This is a stock I would suggest everyone avoid like the plague, you run an excellent chance of losing all your money through a future stock Consolidation. It is a Rotting Souls stock.


----------



## tech/a

Page 50 post 1004 
Is where I turned bear 
And the bulls ravaged the bear 
Some great lessons in that thread


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Page 50 post 1004
> Is where I turned bear
> And the bulls ravaged the bear
> *Some great lessons in that thread*




Indeed …. 

I made some tidy profit from PEN back then ..... but I left at least half of it on the table when Fukashima hit over that fateful weekend, when I should have cashed at least half my chips in prior …..

Wouldn't call it a great lesson … but valuable, yes


----------



## Miner

Gone are the days when some of the PEN enthusiasts put lots of money and one of them has disconnected from this forum as well. PEN has always news but they are not inspiring to be an investible commodity.
Good comments from @Ann, @tech/a and @barney.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I believe PEN is set to move up with ole Donald the Finehair in the White House and the price of uranium edging up.

The Donald likes Uranium power.

gg


----------



## HelloU

HelloU said:


> bump
> bottom maybe-supply in low 30's is real and plenty there even with vol (as in a real delay to chug through) but I do not think I will retire on this.
> hello to all those that ignore me ....hope you bumped into AQZ back whenever.
> toot toot



nah, was not the bottom as that supply was like the endless giver ....and no goodness since so no point in a pilot........but maybe nearly time to look again? maybe


----------



## HelloU

oh ...aqz went 25% in 6 months ......less than i thought but it hit resistance .....looks like ppt and austrian have rubbed the leg of qantas ......(maybe good, maybe not?)


----------



## Ann

*Peninsula Energy is only ASX uranium company set to benefit from US Section 232*
_
Peninsula Energy Ltd (ASXEN) managing director and CEO Wayne Heili speaks to Proactive Investors about the US Department of Commerce Section 232 investigation into uranium imports, and explains how the company is set to benefit as the only ASX-listed US producer of uranium.


 Heili also updates on field testing of a new low pH lixiviant at the Lance Project in Wyoming.

Video...
_
Looking at an EquiVolume chart, it appears there is selling pressure between 0.24 to 0.32/34.


----------



## greggles

PEN continuing its good run over the last six weeks. Up from a low of 15.5c back in early February to a high of 29c today.

Yesterday the company announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Strata Energy Inc, has received the formal approval from the Land Quality Division within the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WDEQ) of the Permit to Mine (PTM) amendment for low pH in-situ recovery (ISR) mining at the Lance Projects. The approval will allow the implementation of low pH operations within the Ross Permit Area at the Lance Projects in four progressive phases, Phase 1 of which is the low pH field demonstration that commenced in December 2018.

PEN up 23.4% to 29c following the announcement but looking like its about to hit some resistance at 29c-30c.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

PEN has delivered ASF members in the past some nice trading profits. Uranium stocks are not for everyone. But for the counter-cyclical and if Trump gets back in, and if.. and if... PEN is well situated as an ASX stock with an asset in it's Lance project in Wyoming.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/05/31/can-producers-have-their-yellowcake-and-eat-it-too/


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> PEN.
> 
> I must look at PEN again.
> 
> I reckon I'm the only non board member or employee to ever make a quid out of them.
> 
> gg



PEN is no longer near alive. It lives. See @Telamelo post in a recent Uranium thread. 

gg


----------



## Telamelo

PEN have about $12M cash balance and read somewhere possibly another $10M coming/on the horizon? (I'll have to re-check info. etc.) but am really liking the potential here imo 

Just announced "Pre-development plans to ramp up Lance activities" in the US

DYOR


----------



## bux2000

Garpal Gumnut said:


> PEN is no longer near alive. It lives.




Well I groomed the flights on my dart, sharpened it's point with the lucky sand paper, and ended my day with uranium on my breath

I will check for a pulse in the morning

bux


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> PEN have about $12M cash balance and read somewhere possibly another $10M coming/on the horizon? (I'll have to re-check info. etc.) but am really liking the potential here imo
> 
> Just announced "Pre-development plans to ramp up Lance activities" in the US
> 
> DYOR



Join a very, very, very long queue @Telamelo , over many, many, many years.

The pied piper of Hamelin ain't got nothing on good ole PEN for dragging people in. 

gg


----------



## Telamelo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Join a very, very, very long queue @Telamelo , over many, many, many years.
> 
> The pied piper of Hamelin ain't got nothing on good ole PEN for dragging people in.
> 
> gg



11/08/2020 PEN has completed the laboratory phase of optimisation work at its Lance Uranium Project in the USA with a second low-PH field demonstration underway to confirm laboratory results at a near to commercial scale.

This work continues pre-development activities at the Wyoming project, which is transitioning to a low pH ISR process.

Over the next 12 to 18 months, Peninsula will focus on key site-specific technical process development and optimisation activities to fully prepare Lance as the only commercial low pH InSitu (ISR) operation in the US.

The company is well funded to advance Lance with a cash holding of approximately US$12 million at June 30, 2020, no term debt and forecast net cash margins of between US$6 million and US$8 million for 2021 from its uranium sales contract book.

Managing director and CEO Wayne Heili said: “Developments in the uranium market have been highlighted by limited global production and restraint of mid to long term purchasing activities by end-users, which indicates a strong likelihood of increasing price and purchasing activity over the coming months and years.

“Peninsula will use its strong balance sheet to sensibly progress Lance with the advantage of knowing that if markets warrant, we could make an investment decision in parallel to the optimisation workstreams and be in commercial production within a six-month timeframe.

“The US domestic uranium industry needs to focus on innovative means to economically produce uranium for the domestic and global nuclear fuel markets.

“We believe that the test programs we have designed and will conduct over the coming 12 to 18 months will generate long term value and benefits for our Project and for our shareholders.”

To further investigate the use of low pH lixiviates (ISR leach solutions), Strata collected fresh core samples from an area that had not been impacted by alkaline ISR production operations (now the MU1A area).

Side by side columns were prepared to explore differences in ‘soft’ (slow) and ‘hard’ (rapid) start-up acidification procedures and the subsequent acid requirements.

Care was taken to ensure core was not unnecessarily exposed to the atmosphere during preparation of the test columns.

While the 'hard' acidification procedure, the standard process in all prior testing, delivered better results, neither column generated results that were comparable to previous column tests.

A hypothesis was developed that the introduction of an oxidant may be necessary to effect rapid uranium dissolution when the mineral is not previously oxidised by alkaline mining.

There was an immediate positive response as the uranium grade quadrupled.

License amendment applications are being prepared for the use of oxidants with the low-pH ISR process and for the use of the ponds for solids management in future operations.

Current licences and permits for Lance allow use of oxidants and the ponds during the limited scale field demonstration without amendments.

Peninsula Energy can also begin low-pH operations without these process enhancements, which were not described in the original low-pH amendment approvals.

Starting in previously mined areas where oxidant is not necessary will allow time for the completion of the desired licence amendments prior to commencing production activities in new mining units.

The company expects completion of these identified licence amendment activities by mid to late 2021.
---Above excerpt article taken from Proactive Investors


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Join a very, very, very long queue @Telamelo , over many, many, many years.
> 
> The pied piper of Hamelin ain't got nothing on good ole PEN for dragging people in.
> 
> gg







Telamelo said:


> 11/08/2020 PEN has completed the laboratory phase of optimisation work at its Lance Uranium Project in the USA with a second low-PH field demonstration underway to confirm laboratory results at a near to commercial scale.
> 
> This work continues pre-development activities at the Wyoming project, which is transitioning to a low pH ISR process.
> 
> Over the next 12 to 18 months, Peninsula will focus on key site-specific technical process development and optimisation activities to fully prepare Lance as the only commercial low pH InSitu (ISR) operation in the US.
> 
> The company is well funded to advance Lance with a cash holding of approximately US$12 million at June 30, 2020, no term debt and forecast net cash margins of between US$6 million and US$8 million for 2021 from its uranium sales contract book.
> 
> Managing director and CEO Wayne Heili said: “Developments in the uranium market have been highlighted by limited global production and restraint of mid to long term purchasing activities by end-users, which indicates a strong likelihood of increasing price and purchasing activity over the coming months and years.
> 
> “Peninsula will use its strong balance sheet to sensibly progress Lance with the advantage of knowing that if markets warrant, we could make an investment decision in parallel to the optimisation workstreams and be in commercial production within a six-month timeframe.
> 
> “The US domestic uranium industry needs to focus on innovative means to economically produce uranium for the domestic and global nuclear fuel markets.
> 
> “We believe that the test programs we have designed and will conduct over the coming 12 to 18 months will generate long term value and benefits for our Project and for our shareholders.”
> 
> To further investigate the use of low pH lixiviates (ISR leach solutions), Strata collected fresh core samples from an area that had not been impacted by alkaline ISR production operations (now the MU1A area).
> 
> Side by side columns were prepared to explore differences in ‘soft’ (slow) and ‘hard’ (rapid) start-up acidification procedures and the subsequent acid requirements.
> 
> Care was taken to ensure core was not unnecessarily exposed to the atmosphere during preparation of the test columns.
> 
> While the 'hard' acidification procedure, the standard process in all prior testing, delivered better results, neither column generated results that were comparable to previous column tests.
> 
> A hypothesis was developed that the introduction of an oxidant may be necessary to effect rapid uranium dissolution when the mineral is not previously oxidised by alkaline mining.
> 
> There was an immediate positive response as the uranium grade quadrupled.
> 
> License amendment applications are being prepared for the use of oxidants with the low-pH ISR process and for the use of the ponds for solids management in future operations.
> 
> Current licences and permits for Lance allow use of oxidants and the ponds during the limited scale field demonstration without amendments.
> 
> Peninsula Energy can also begin low-pH operations without these process enhancements, which were not described in the original low-pH amendment approvals.
> 
> Starting in previously mined areas where oxidant is not necessary will allow time for the completion of the desired licence amendments prior to commencing production activities in new mining units.
> 
> The company expects completion of these identified licence amendment activities by mid to late 2021.
> ---Above excerpt article taken from Proactive Investors



Seen it all before.

Heard it all before.

Get a trend going @Telamelo and let the fun begin. 

gg


----------



## Telamelo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Seen it all before.
> 
> Heard it all before.
> 
> Get a trend going @Telamelo and let the fun begin.
> 
> gg



Interestingly, the 1 yr PEN candlestick chart shows a big 'open gap' between .088c and .108c that sooner or later may/should get filled!  imo

It's flagship Lance uranium project in Wyoming, has the largest defined US in-situ resource of 53.6mlb and is the only project permitted to use low pH in-situ recovery.

With processing and well field production facilities already in place, Peninsula can bring the project back into production within six months of a restart decision.

The company is already contracted to deliver 450,000 pounds of U3O8 per year in 2021 to 2022 and has five sales agreements in place with major US and European utilities for up to 5.5 million pounds U308 at a weighted average sales price of between US$51 and US$53 per pound U308 through to 2030.

Uranium prices have climbed sharply this year, up more than 33 per cent since January to the current price of $US32.95 a pound.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> Interestingly, the 1 yr PEN candlestick chart shows a big 'open gap' between .088c and .108c that sooner or later may/should get filled!  imo
> 
> It's flagship Lance uranium project in Wyoming, has the largest defined US in-situ resource of 53.6mlb and is the only project permitted to use low pH in-situ recovery.
> 
> With processing and well field production facilities already in place, Peninsula can bring the project back into production within six months of a restart decision.
> 
> The company is already contracted to deliver 450,000 pounds of U3O8 per year in 2021 to 2022 and has five sales agreements in place with major US and European utilities for up to 5.5 million pounds U308 at a weighted average sales price of between US$51 and US$53 per pound U308 through to 2030.
> 
> Uranium prices have climbed sharply this year, up more than 33 per cent since January to the current price of $US32.95 a pound.



OK @Telamelo

I'll go along with you on PEN as long as you do not mention the following words in any of your posts on PEN in ASF : processing, production, project, restart, decision, contracted, sales, agreements, million (or any multiple of), pounds, U308, any year between 2000 and 2100, Wyoming, Lance and Uranium.

PEN is a flea ridden dawg and I have had migraines skipping past announcements and comment containing the drivel words published in the previous paragraph in the past. So many forests and hard drives have been destroyed on fundamental analysis of PEN. Beware if you should follow in the path of loons and paupers.

Let us follow the trend and see what happens.

gg


----------



## Telamelo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> OK @Telamelo
> 
> I'll go along with you on PEN as long as you do not mention the following words in any of your posts on PEN in ASF : processing, production, project, restart, decision, contracted, sales, agreements, million (or any multiple of), pounds, U308, any year between 2000 and 2100, Wyoming, Lance and Uranium.
> 
> PEN is a flea ridden dawg and I have had migraines skipping past announcements and comment containing the drivel words published in the previous paragraph in the past. So many forests and hard drives have been destroyed on fundamental analysis of PEN. Beware if you should follow in the path of loons and paupers.
> 
> Let us follow the trend and see what happens.
> 
> gg



I love "unloved rock bottom stocks" as once the tide begins to turn (noting recent PEN announcements since July '20) can potentially deliver exponential/parabolic returns going forward. Very minimal downside risk but with tremendous upside potential imo


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## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> I love "unloved rock bottom stocks" as once the tide begins to turn (noting recent PEN announcements since July '20) can potentially deliver exponential/parabolic returns going forward. Very minimal downside risk but with tremendous upside potential imo



It will be a fun ride.



Garpal Gumnut said:


> OK @Telamelo
> I'll go along with you on PEN as long as you do not mention the following words in any of your posts on PEN in ASF : processing, production, project, restart, decision, contracted, sales, agreements, million (or any multiple of), pounds, U308,* any year between 2000 and 2100,* Wyoming, Lance and Uranium.
> PEN is a flea ridden dawg and I have had migraines skipping past announcements and comment containing the drivel words published in the previous paragraph in the past. So many forests and hard drives have been destroyed on fundamental analysis of PEN. Beware if you should follow in the path of loons and paupers.
> 
> gg




My expectation is that you will not use subterfuge such as '20 for 2020 to circumvent my reasonable request that you use no recycled fundamental language as posted above.

gg


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## Telamelo

A little patience is a virtue with PEN .. rock solid support today @ .068/.069c levels in closing @ .069 still cheap as chips! dyor


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## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> A little patience is a virtue with PEN .. rock solid support today @ .068/.069c levels in closing @ .069 still cheap as chips! dyor



So you are now set in PEN. Well done. Valour does sometimes reward those who catch a tide.

I enclose a chart to give you some heart and also to think on. It is a ten year monthly chart showing PEN in a continual downward path from highs of $5 back in 2011, to today. It finished I believe at 0.069.

There has certainly been huge volume these last few months. 200 million shares were traded in July, just one month ago, so there will be plenty for sale. Should you be correct there will be millions to buy over the next few days, weeks and months. But not at 0.069.

If your hope is fulfilled you will have multiplied your stake by 72.5 times when it gets back to $5. 

Also remember it is a share, not a lover. If you want love, buy a dog, not PEN. It is also not a part of you and you are not a member of the board so don't over-identify with it e.g. by using the word "we" as many PEN holders have in the past. 

Having said all that I really do wish you well and, although not as pleased as you, I will be happy if your hunch and analysis is correct.

gg


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## Telamelo

Thanks GG on a great post! double thumbs up!

Am well aware of the history of PEN but am pleased to be set @ .067c average (so am in the money already lol) but seriously, don't have in mind like a $5 target or anything like that... let's just see what happens anyway over the coming year or two (for starter's).  Cheers tela


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## Telamelo

PEN buy depth looking better by the minute..
218 buyers for 20,322,150 units vs 67 sellers for 5,183,954 units

Juicy 'open gap' on chart between .088c and .108c to fill - sooner or later imo

Cheers tela


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## Telamelo

PEN closed @ .071c  eyeing juicy "open gap" on chart between .09 and .11c to fill (sooner or later)
MorningstarTM Quantitative
11 Aug 2020

More details about Morning Star Quantitative
Undervalued
Fair value $0.12c 

3 out of 5 star(s) rating
Consensus
11 Aug 2020

More details about Morning Star Consensus
Strong Buy
1 Strong Buy


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## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> PEN closed @ .071c  eyeing juicy "open gap" on chart between .09 and .11c to fill (sooner or later)
> MorningstarTM Quantitative
> 11 Aug 2020
> 
> More details about Morning Star Quantitative
> Undervalued
> Fair value $0.12c
> 
> 3 out of 5 star(s) rating
> Consensus
> 11 Aug 2020
> 
> More details about Morning Star Consensus
> Strong Buy
> 1 Strong Buy




It's certainly a good start for your investment in PEN, @Telamelo .

Let us know how you go by posting your thoughts and research on PEN and the chart, and not the PEN board's nor outfits like Morningstar  "feeding the chooks" stuff, that they put out from time to time when the price falters.

Remember that you will never be able to whisper in PEN's ear, "I suppose a root would not be out of the question". It's a means to an end and not an end in itself. 

gg


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## peter2

GG your excitement re PEN is underwhelming. 
Dare I mention that there's a nice looking BO setup forming on the chart.


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## Telamelo

peter2 said:


> GG your excitement re PEN is underwhelming.
> Dare I mention that there's a nice looking BO setup forming on the chart.
> 
> View attachment 107542



Thanks for posting PEN chart (appreciate it). Perhaps soaking/accumulation almost finished @ .071/.072c ? so then "coil can spring into action"!


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## Telamelo

Uranium turning the corner..

U.S. legislation on the table to reduce foreign dependency
As the US struggles to finalize their new uranium funding to build a significant US uranium reserve using the previously announced US$150 million U.S. uranium reserve program, two new Acts have recently gone to US legislators.On July 29, 2020, legislation was introduced in the House of Representatives by Representatives Cheney and Latta to establish a National Uranium Reserve. Then on July 30, 2020, U.S. Senator Barrasso, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, introduced the American Nuclear Infrastructure Act of 2020. Among other items, it includes the authorization to create a uranium reserve to fuel America’s nuclear reactors with domestic fuel and bolster America’s uranium industry.The last 4 years of low uranium prices has led to significant uranium supply destruction to the point where demand for new uranium will likely put a floor on uranium prices and keep them from falling back again. The uranium miners who survived stand to benefit as the cycle turns positive.

“In July 2020, Energy Secretary Brouillette told the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy that DOE is working to end U.S. reliance on Russia for nuclear fuel. DOE wants to process American-sourced uranium into high-grade fuel at the DOE facility in Portsmouth, Ohio next year. Centrifuges have been moved from DOE’s Oak Ridge laboratories to Portsmouth. Additionally, DOE is working with lawmakers to authorize the creation of the uranium reserve.”

The US uranium miners can see the light at the end of the tunnel, even if they are not there yet. The US government continues to progress – if slowly – towards establishing a secure uranium supply. Two new Acts have helped build pressure on the U.S. House Committee on Appropriations who are yet to allocate the Department of Energy’s previously recommended US$150m of funds.Meanwhile the global uranium supply destruction has pushed uranium prices higher, and in time the US government will surely finalize and release the funding for the proposed US uranium reserve. Just remember, patience is a virtue.


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## Garpal Gumnut

@Telamelo 
I've got a Fibonacci retracement chart for you on recent PEN action. 

Selling a few million after your gap closes would enable the rest of your buy to "run free". 





	

		
			
		

		
	
 All the best for you in PEN.

gg


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## Telamelo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> @Telamelo
> I've got a Fibonacci retracement chart for you on recent PEN action.
> 
> Selling a few million after your gap closes would enable the rest of your buy to "run free".
> 
> View attachment 107717
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> All the best for you in PEN.
> 
> gg



Thanks very much GG .. Excellent work!  Appreciate it. Looks promising this morning with a couple of decent bids in @ 0.073/0.074c already.
Cheers tela


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## Telamelo

PEN on the move.. hit .075c +4.17% on very good volume!


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## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> PEN on the move.. hit .075c +4.17% on very good volume!



As well as charting it may be worthwhile seeing the average time between ASX announcements and also issuance and exercise of executive options going back over the years. 

With this outfit there is some correlation between that and price rises and falls. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut

@Telamelo. @Joe Blow 

If you post my chart to the HotCopper website under the PEN thread without attribution as you did with that of @peter2 , I will have your balls or bits for breakfast tomorrow morning. 

You are on ignore you little grub.

gg


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## peter2

Thanks GG.  
Yes, @Telamelo you can't do that. If you agree with the opinion that the chart setup does look good and you want to post the idea elsewhere then you need to post your own chart not someone else's. 
My chart included a comment about PEN that may or may not be correct (No debt). Comments like these are personal opinions not facts. I'd like an apology please.


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## Joe Blow

@Telamelo - do not re-post any ASF member's content (charts, attachments, or written content) on another website without their *express permission*.


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## Dona Ferentes

_"They said, with manners like that, he wasn't fit to eat with pigs; but I stood up for him and said he was!"_


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## Telamelo

Joe Blow said:


> @Telamelo - do not re-post any ASF member's content (charts, attachments, or written content) on another website without their *express permission*.



Sorry as didn't know - apologies to everyone concerned (moreso to you @peter2 ) It won't happen again. Sorry if I offended anyone.

P.S. Over the many year's posting, have never been bad mouthed/called name's/put on ignore by anyone - ever. 
So it's terribly disappointing indeed


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## peter2

@Telamelo  Thank you.  

PEN has broken out and traded above 0.070. However there is still enough supply to force price back down to 0.070 (today's price action). Price can't go higher until this supply is overrun or it is withdrawn. 

There's a very long road ahead for PEN as it considers developing it's uranium resource. They've got to make a convincing case in order to get the huge financial support that a project of this size requires. Price will jump up and down in response to news of any progress or lack of it. 

Watching the course of sales and the transient market depth closely won't help contain your emotions. I have noticed that trades work better when I'm not watching them. For me, this is one of a hundred trades that I'll take this year. I'll either make a profit or a loss, then I'll find another opportunity.


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## frugal.rock

Can I interject and suggest you re-read the forum rules @Telamelo 

Take it on the chin. 
The learned colleagues have said their bit and we have all been young once.... perhaps too many forgotten moons ago, for some.

FWIW, the exuberance (frequency) of posting on particular stocks could be interpreted as ramping. Something I try to remember... (have a look at the BUD thread... )
There's obvious excitement in your posts, which, probably exhibits levels of emotions which probably doesn't help in trading either.

I wish you well.
Cheers.

PS, I felt dirty after visiting HC... so I don't do it.


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## Telamelo

peter2 said:


> @Telamelo  Thank you.
> 
> PEN has broken out and traded above 0.070. However there is still enough supply to force price back down to 0.070 (today's price action). Price can't go higher until this supply is overrun or it is withdrawn.
> 
> There's a very long road ahead for PEN as it considers developing it's uranium resource. They've got to make a convincing case in order to get the huge financial support that a project of this size requires. Price will jump up and down in response to news of any progress or lack of it.
> 
> Watching the course of sales and the transient market depth closely won't help contain your emotions. I have noticed that trades work better when I'm not watching them. For me, this is one of a hundred trades that I'll take this year. I'll either make a profit or a loss, then I'll find another opportunity.



Thanks @peter2 for your reply, insight/analysis as think you're spot on about supply/over hang present based on today's price action/close.
For those interested in fundamentals.. below is a recap/summary of today's PEN presentation:

Peninsula Energy is confident of the rapid restart potential of its Lance Uranium Project in Wyoming, USA, utilising the low pH extraction process.

The company is debt-free and well-funded with over US$10 million in cash and has identified a low-capital pathway to restart the project following the final investment decision (FID).

The Lance Project is one of the largest uranium projects in the US in size and scale with a JORC resource base of 53.6 million pounds and a licence to produce up to 3 million pounds per annum.

However, the project is currently paused as it transitions to a low pH extraction process which will allow it to become a low-cost, long-life uranium operation.

Low pH process
Historically US uranium ISR projects utilised the alkaline extraction method, which Lance was originally licensed for, but laboratory testing in 2017 proved operational costs and production rates at the project would significantly benefit from a low pH process.

The lowest quartile cast cosh uranium mines are all low pH ISR and Lance is the only US-based uranium project authorised to use this method.

PEN's expected transition capex is around US$6 million and a further US$15 million to construct mine unit 3 and ramp-up to stage one (plant capacity of the project is 1.15 million pounds at an AISC of US$41/pound).

Stage two of the project consists of 2.3 million pounds per annum at a capex of US$43 million and AISC of US$31/pound.

Technical optimisation
For the near term, the company is focused on demonstrating process improvements and delivering long-term value at the low pH ISR Lance Project.

A drill rig is currently on-site to complete remaining wellfield activity required for new field demonstration and a further round of column leach tests are planned to further optimise the transition process.

The company estimates a six-month lead time to return to production, post a final investment decision.

Peninsula believes that, if the markets warrant, the restart FID decision can be made in parallel to optimisation activities.

The project has a well-defined pathway to production.

Established uranium relationships The company has an established uranium contract book expected to generate a CY21 net cash margin of US$6-8 million, backed with binding purchase agreement to procure 400,000 pounds.

This positions Peninsula as the only junior uranium producer with long-term sales contracts extending to 2030, representing around 20% of the projected Lance FS LOM production.

In addition, there are current contracts in place for up to 5.5 million pounds at US$51-$53/pound with major utilities across both the US and Europe including:

75,000 pounds of remaining deliveries in CY2020 to be met from contracted purchases at fixed purchase price of less than US$27/pound to generate net cash margin of $US1.3 million; and 450,000 pounds to be delivered in each of CY2021 and CY2022.
The company’s strong existing relationships with preferred customers will act as a base for new business.

Uranium market outlook
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented upheaval in the global uranium market and while demand has been quite resilient, production disruptions have been significant.

Looking forwards, there is a renewed emphasis on supply diversity and security of supply developing and uranium spot prices have risen around 30% to US$32.00/pound since mid-March.

US NFWG report findings
The US Department of Energy (DOE) ‘Strategy to Restore American Nuclear Energy Leadership’ outlined potential actions designed to revive the capabilities of the US uranium mining, milling and conversion industries.

Notably, key Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG) policy recommendations include:

Establish US Uranium Reserve with budget appropriation required of US$150 million per year, for 10 years to purchase US produced uranium; and Propose purchasing 17 to 19 million pounds over a 10 year period of US-produced uranium.

Peninsula is perfectly placed to benefit from this strong DOE support for a long-term buying program from US uranium mines and is the only ASX-listed uranium company that has the immediate ability to take advantage of this US government buying program.


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## frugal.rock

peter2 said:


> PEN has broken out and traded above 0.070. However there is still enough supply to force price back down to 0.070 (today's price action). Price can't go higher until this supply is overrun or it is withdrawn.



For what it's worth, still the case. 
Don't forget it's Friday tomorrow.


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## Telamelo

@peter2 PEN now @ 0.074c  +4.23% Cheers tela


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## frugal.rock

Your a funny character Tela. 
So what happened with Sunstone hmmm?


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## Telamelo

PEN just hit a day high @ 0.076c +7.04%!  just saying


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## Telamelo

frugal.rock said:


> Your a funny character Tela.
> So what happened with Sunstone hmmm?



Hey FR, all good with Sunstone - bought heaps @ .012c (offloaded some @ .015) then topped up more recently @ .012 (has 'potential going forward' imo)

Heavily invested in PEN though as it's my "trump card"!

Good luck with your endeavours. Cheers


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## bux2000

Relating to the yearly pics competition
I believe PEN is strategically positioned to take advantage of events that are likely to unfold in the coming year.

Thanks
bux


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## breaker

big selloff today and friday any clues to why


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## greggles

breaker said:


> big selloff today and friday any clues to why




This is from their announcement on Friday:







A delay of six months means some punters are going to bail out of the stock and look for better opportunities elsewhere. I imagine it probably has a little further to fall yet.


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## barney

greggles said:


> This is from their announcement on Friday:
> A delay of six months means some punters are going to bail out of the stock and look for better opportunities elsewhere. I imagine it probably has a little further to fall yet.




Yeah tend to agree Greg.

Had a quick read of the Announcement. The volume of Acid required to bring the ground water to the PH required is much higher than the Feasibility study indicated in the laboratory.  

The acid decomposes the naturally occurring carbonate minerals and bicarbonate in the water, so its either going to cost a lot more, or the quality of the extracted material will be lower (my assumption)

They are starting with water at PH8  but need to get it to PH2 to work effectively.   Tough being a Chemist at that level.


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## breaker

thankyou


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## finicky

Like this as a long term basing chart? Highly prospective in my view but the history of the company sucks with hyperinflationary dilution disguised by a *40:1* share consolidation back in 2015 and since then they've inflated issuance back to slightly over 1 billion shares diluted for options, recent placement and Spp (yet to complete).

If you beieve in a continuing bull market for uranium they've got a quite a beguiling story going now from a superficial look (big scale resource in Wyoming, plant, licence, past production/current hiatus, forward sales in place above spot, favourable govt policies toward domestic U.S sourcing including likely strategic reserve to pass in legislation.

It's not really cheap @ 0.16 (current Plcmt and Spp @ 0.15) because of over 1 billion diluted shares, i.e the real price in my book is $1.60/shr for a consolidated ~100,000m shares. If you want to stick up for earlier *investors* who have stuck around the real price would have to reach 0.16x40x10 = $64/shr for them to get 0.16 for their shares. So I won't be buying into their scheme.

Big big volume matching the right candles, Shallow H&S, Small mthly candle bodies getting bigger and positive, Recent piercing of monthly bollinger line.
Monthly


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## Garpal Gumnut

finicky said:


> Like this as a long term basing chart? Highly prospective in my view but the history of the company sucks with hyperinflationary dilution disguised by a *40:1* share consolidation back in 2015 and since then they've inflated issuance back to slightly over 1 billion shares diluted for options, recent placement and Spp (yet to complete).
> 
> If you beieve in a continuing bull market for uranium they've got a quite a beguiling story going now from a superficial look (big scale resource in Wyoming, plant, licence, past production/current hiatus, forward sales in place above spot, favourable govt policies toward domestic U.S sourcing including likely strategic reserve to pass in legislation.
> 
> It's not really cheap @ 0.16 (current Plcmt and Spp @ 0.15) because of over 1 billion diluted shares, i.e the real price in my book is $1.60/shr for a consolidated ~100,000m shares. If you want to stick up for earlier *investors* who have stuck around the real price would have to reach 0.16x40x10 = $64/shr for them to get 0.16 for their shares. So I won't be buying into their scheme.
> 
> Big big volume matching the right candles, Shallow H&S, Small mthly candle bodies getting bigger and positive, Recent piercing of monthly bollinger line.
> Monthly
> View attachment 125600



I would agree @finicky .

I day traded PEN many years ago and the sentiment then was to ensure one sold to a bigger fool. The large holders, board and executive are an interesting mob. Then again it may beat bitcoin. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would agree @finicky .
> 
> I day traded PEN many years ago and the sentiment then was to ensure one sold to a bigger fool. The large holders, board and executive are an interesting mob. Then again it may beat bitcoin.
> 
> gg



I totally missed the bull run in Uranium recently. 

This is not the time to be buying PEN. 

It has history. 

gg


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## PetEarwig

I'm taking PEN in the Dec stock-picking comp. I've no real conviction about this stock and am more hoping that the overall uranium market sees another rise. Maybe catching this at an opportune time.  Craig


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## Garpal Gumnut

Is anyone following PEN ?

It used trade, on the back of Lance an outfit devoid of cowboys in ole Wyoming, between 6c and 13c.

It seems to be making an attempt to break up out of a rather alarming down channel.

Let us hope there are braves about.

I am unsure whether ole Joe Biden or whatshername VPOTUS is pro or anti Uranium or not.






gg


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## Country Lad

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Is anyone following PEN ?
> 
> gg



No, not since it was the most hyped up, ramped and argued about under-preforming stock on another forum many years ago, before its consolidation.


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## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Is anyone following PEN ?
> 
> It used trade, on the back of Lance an outfit devoid of cowboys in ole Wyoming, between 6c and 13c.
> 
> It seems to be making an attempt to break up out of a rather alarming down channel.
> 
> Let us hope there are braves about.
> 
> I am unsure whether ole Joe Biden or whatshername VPOTUS is pro or anti Uranium or not.
> 
> View attachment 138523
> 
> 
> gg




Yes, on the list, but I've picked my top 4 and this isn't in it. Not sure exactly why I haven't added this to top 4 position. Just preferred the names of the others I think.

My chart looks different to yours, but similar to all the other uranium stocks the past 6 months that I pasted in the uranium stocks thread. Have all bounced the past 5 days on the war.


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## Ann

I guess by now the spikes are the give-away for my Uranium choices plus they are just now bouncing off the 200demas


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## aus_trader

Bouncing off support level, so could have some upside...






Also, Uranium stocks (e.g. PDN, DYL etc.) have surged higher recently as also evident by the Uranium ETF:





So could PEN have some catching up to do ?  Tipped for Sept stock tipping competition.


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## frugal.rock

It's probably a great buy the dip stock.
Oh wait, it didn't dip, when nearly everything else did.
I had this in the wrong watchlist, but I did notice it was slightly in the green today.
URA on NYSE currently up 8.5%
Your on a roll @aus_trader 👍


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## Sean K

Another re-start. That makes PDN, BOE, LOT and PEN all coming back on line. Fingers crossed no nuclear accidents to put a spanner in the works.


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## Garpal Gumnut

LOL. 

Pen is the dog that never stops barking. 

Just ensure one is not the last mug buying. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut

PEN announces that Lance has restarted AGAIN.

How many times can one awake a dog?

Deja vu, all over again. 

LOL.

gg


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## barney

Garpal Gumnut said:


> LOL.
> 
> Pen is the dog that never stops barking.  Just ensure one is not the last mug buying.  gg




I almost made a small fortune out of my PEN holding till I got "Fuakashima'd" one fateful weekend many moons back.  Black Swans can be cruel birds at times, lol.


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## Sean K

barney said:


> I almost made a small fortune out of my PEN holding till I got "Fuakashima'd" one fateful weekend many moons back.  Black Swans can be cruel birds at times, lol.




I was one of the last ones without a chair during the GFC on some speccie uranium stocks that had made me a paper fortune before the bid column disappeared. Should have sold before I disappeared into the Amazon for a few weeks. All part of the game I guess.


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## Sean K

Positive news for PEN and they need it. Back to the pre-Sep 21 excitement levels when the SPUT was set up and U prices started moving from 30-60 bucks. It's been all sideways and downhill for just about all of them since then. 

Not sure what the next catalyst is for the POU but I do know the risk of an accident in Ukraine could be disaster for a lot of these smaller players trying to restart. Perhaps a cease-fire and negotiations will temper concerns and with Japan switching everything back on, demand will take care of the price.


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## aus_trader

Picked for 2023 yearly competition. Price is down lately as with other Uranium stocks, but hoping for a Uranium price surge in the new year which will give the stocks like PEN, DYL and PDN a boost... 🤞


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## Garpal Gumnut

PEN is a dog. 

The only reason I picked it for the January competition was because I had a dart pick. 

gg


----------

