# Transitioning to markets available in Australia's time zone



## CanOz

Trading from Australia was always going to be different than trading the European Index Futures. I knew that the SPI had limited liquidity and went dead from lunch until the close. I didn't know how i would cope with that. For me, i like fast markets, the activity forces me to focus, its just who i am. I need activity, otherwise i just cannot maintain the intense focus required. Some people like EOD, i like Intra-day.

The SPI is ok for the first 2 hours, its got enough liquidity that you can see in the order book and make decisions with. There's a couple of swings, but really only one or two opportunities and then its over if your not already involved. After lunch it goes to sleep most days. Even when the other markets are moving, it could be just sitting there...then all of the sudden a heap of order sweep the book. At least with equities you might get several trades on during the AM session, a few might stick for the rest of the day. The HKFE just doesn't have the longer term data available for me to do the kind of in depth analysis i like to to in order to develop trade ideas. It might, later with TT. 

I'm going to try and get data for the OSE NK mini contract, which is supposed to be Asia's most liquid futures contract, AMP just offered that last night. 

So now i am seriously researching the switch to ASX Equities with an intra-day focus. 

There are guys doing this successfully now, such as Bryce Edwards (Chat with Traders Interview). Propex also have equity desks setup and as far as i know, these are the bulk of their outright trading activities, the rest are mainly spreads. I've actually applied to Propex for their Gold Coast office equity training program. Hopefully i'll at least get an interview.

There's going to be a learning curve here. Anyone who is already trading intra-day stocks for a living, i would be very grateful for any advice.

I've downloaded a trial of Spark and i am setting Amibroker for IB's API. 

I need to discover how to build a list of stocks to watch, this will require some early morning research. 

I'll post my progress here, i'll spend a few days deciding if i want to go further with this or not.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## VSntchr

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> So now i am seriously researching the switch to ASX Equities with an intra-day focus.




Not sure I can offer any advice, but happy to join in on any commentary/thread discussion. 
I mainly trade pairs, and a few momentum strategies...but also do actively day-trade ASX equities.

Although soon I will be faced with the same challange as you, as I attempt to switch to FTSE equities.

FWIW, I actually went back and forth with Bryce over email after that podcast - nice guy and he'll happily respond to any brief questions you have.


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## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Can, use Spark to track high turnover speccy runners.

Enter asap and hold as the top 3 buy lines are newly refreshing (short order age, shows bright green).  Sell when the sell side starts to show new orders comig in (bright red).  Older orders will draw the price towards them.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



VSntchr said:


> Not sure I can offer any advice, but happy to join in on any commentary/thread discussion.
> I mainly trade pairs, and a few momentum strategies...but also do actively day-trade ASX equities.
> 
> Although soon I will be faced with the same challenge as you, as I attempt to switch to FTSE equities.
> 
> FWIW, I actually went back and forth with Bryce over email after that podcast - nice guy and he'll happily respond to any brief questions you have.




Thanks VS, are you moving to the UK or just looking for more opportunities?

If i were in Europe i'd definitely look at futures, outrights and spreads.

Very interested in how to build the 'stocks in play list' and i may start a new thread on that to list my research for the day, if i get that far with this. At the moment i'm still on the fence, but if i can see a glimmer of hope for a decent trading plan i'll carry on.



> Can, use Spark to track high turnover speccy runners.
> 
> Enter asap and hold as the top 3 buy lines are newly refreshing (short order age, shows bright green). Sell when the sell side starts to show new orders comig in (bright red). Older orders will draw the price towards them.




GB, thanks for the idea for the play, how do you determine if the stock is in play on the day? Is the theme based on what stocks are hot due to a commodity or a chat room buzz?


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## Roller_1

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Hi CanOz

I will be following along with this thread, can i ask what you will be using Amibroker for? are you taking a systematic approach?

Trent


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## ggkfc

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Good luck, keep us updated!


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## VSntchr

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Thanks VS, are you moving to the UK or just looking for more opportunities?
> 
> If i were in Europe i'd definitely look at futures, outrights and spreads.
> 
> Very interested in how to build the 'stocks in play list' and i may start a new thread on that to list my research for the day, if i get that far with this. At the moment i'm still on the fence, but if i can see a glimmer of hope for a decent trading plan i'll carry on.



Moving to Spain, so figured FTSE equities are probably my best bet. Either that or US equities depending on how I go with time.

Interesting re: futures etc. Something I know little of, but would be open to learning. Especially if I have trouble with equities.

As for building a stocks-in-play list. My process is basically as follows: I review a few news sources (AFR etc), watch the flow of announcements each morning, have a few technical setups, have stocks from previous days that will be in-play. Then also check what's moving most within the Mid-large end of the market.


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## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> GB, thanks for the idea for the play, how do you determine if the stock is in play on the day? Is the theme based on what stocks are hot due to a commodity or a chat room buzz?




You need to scan the whole market.  Spark will show you top gainers with volume.  Its in play if it ranks high on the 5/10 min % change list.  Hover your mouse to view the depth characteristics.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Roller_1 said:


> Hi CanOz
> 
> I will be following along with this thread, can i ask what you will be using Amibroker for? are you taking a systematic approach?
> 
> Trent




Nah, just charting with some volume at price.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



VSntchr said:


> Moving to Spain, so figured FTSE equities are probably my best bet. Either that or US equities depending on how I go with time.
> 
> Interesting re: futures etc. Something I know little of, but would be open to learning. Especially if I have trouble with equities.
> 
> As for building a stocks-in-play list. My process is basically as follows: I review a few news sources (AFR etc), watch the flow of announcements each morning, have a few technical setups, have stocks from previous days that will be in-play. Then also check what's moving most within the Mid-large end of the market.




Ahh well good luck. Assuming one is already profitable with their trading method, then it should be just rinse/repeat with a few nuances wouldn't it? I wish i could say the same with futures in Australia's time zone.

How long does it take you to do you research? I'm thinking i'm going to need to get up much earlier....


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> You need to scan the whole market.  Spark will show you top gainers with volume.  Its in play if it ranks high on the 5/10 min % change list.  Hover your mouse to view the depth characteristics.




Yeah i like these scanners...fast too. Gradually getting the hang of it, but certainly a really fast platform.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

GB, whats the best way to get this application onto more screens? Is there an undock sort of feature or just spread it out, drawing it over the other screens?


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Ahh well good luck. Assuming one is already profitable with their trading method, then it should be just rinse/repeat with a few nuances wouldn't it? I wish i could say the same with futures in Australia's time zone.
> 
> How long does it take you to do you research? I'm thinking i'm going to need to get up much earlier....




You mean trading FROM Australia in your OP or trading Australian instruments? Otherwise why can't you just keep trading Eurex etc. from here? 

I remember checking out the KOSPI back in the day, was/is like an Asian ES, if you have an IB account should be able to access all the Asian index futs?


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## fiftyeight

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

I will also be following along.

With a change of roster I will be changing what time zone I can trade.

Very interested to see peoples thoughts on this


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> You mean trading FROM Australia in your OP or trading Australian instruments? Otherwise why can't you just keep trading Eurex etc. from here?
> 
> I remember checking out the KOSPI back in the day, was/is like an Asian ES, if you have an IB account should be able to access all the Asian index futs?




Its a lifestyle choice. I've been working off shifts and days/6-7 days a week for 25 years. I want a day job and i'm sharper in the morning.

I want to work from early in the morning until dinner time, no more unless its after bath/bedtime (family). Worst case i can trade Eurex products again, its familiar to me and i realized success after many years of screen time, but it means i'm not available at critical family times. I need to find a product that suits my preference for activity, but also my preference for time of day.

As for the futures, the data really annoys me. IB's data drives me crazy. You don't actually know if its hit the bid or offer, doesn't work too well with a DOM or bookmap like Auction Vista. These tools are super handy with all the algo activity now. Plus no long term continuous historical charts is the show stopper. I use the long term composite profiles to frame up the technical context and identify my key levels. I'm still hoping TT will have something soon that does everything i want including spreads, but in the meantime i want to see if the ASX has something to offer in the way of opportunities.


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## VSntchr

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Ahh well good luck. Assuming one is already profitable with their trading method, then it should be just rinse/repeat with a few nuances wouldn't it? I wish i could say the same with futures in Australia's time zone.
> 
> How long does it take you to do you research? I'm thinking i'm going to need to get up much earlier....




The problem is that my trading performance has improved markedly once I have gotten to know the stocks better and how they trade. This takes a long time, but is turbo charged by the pairs strategy which can be a nice way to dip your toe into new sectors and start learning about new stocks. I guess there will be alot of transfer but also alot of "relearning" about local companies.

When there is no daylight saving it's easy for me, I generally like to have about 2 hours before the open - but can get away with 1hr if I'm pressed. Because I work from home I can literally start work 5 mins after I wake up  
Obviously the more time you get, the more stuff you can get done and the deeper you can go. When there is daylight savings Id be waking up at 630-715am latest and pretty much straight into it. 

It also depends on your strategies and the time of year - for example reporting season is super high demand and if you really want to maximise your opportunities you could be getting up at 4am just to cover some of the previous days reports etc... So I think it really is to each his own and you will figure it out along the way.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



VSntchr said:


> *The problem is that my trading performance has improved markedly once I have gotten to know the stocks better and how they trade.* This takes a long time, but is turbo charged by the pairs strategy which can be a nice way to dip your toe into new sectors and start learning about new stocks. I guess there will be alot of transfer but also alot of "relearning" about local companies.
> 
> When there is no daylight saving it's easy for me, I generally like to have about 2 hours before the open - but can get away with 1hr if I'm pressed. Because I work from home I can literally start work 5 mins after I wake up
> Obviously the more time you get, the more stuff you can get done and the deeper you can go. When there is daylight savings Id be waking up at 630-715am latest and pretty much straight into it.
> 
> It also depends on your strategies and the time of year - for example reporting season is super high demand and if you really want to maximise your opportunities you could be getting up at 4am just to cover some of the previous days reports etc... So I think it really is to each his own and you will figure it out along the way.




Good point, every issue is a new market....

Are there any resources that you use, other than the papers? I'm trying to configure IB for news scans as well.

For futures i had a very regimented routine to complete each day. I had this memorised after a while. I'm trying to figure that out as well. I've got to some up with a list of what i consider 'stocks in play' first, then after that i can start to get screen time to accumulate some plays...


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## peter2

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

All the best, but you're going to have to work your butt off finding an edge in the ASX equity intra-day arena. 

You've got Bella's books, pour over them and create a process to find a few "stocks in play" each day. As you know US stocks are much more liquid than ASX. You must trade with very high volume stocks or be prepared to be stranded.

ASX stocks will move with the index or move with their own stock specific news. IMO it's important to have an idea what's likely to move the stocks you're interested in. 

You'll probably end up with a small list (10) of favourites that move with the index and a few small caps that are "hot" at the time. 

You'll have to create and apply a new skill-set that is completely different to what you've been doing. I don't envy your task. 

I know you know enough now to do it (believe it). However you'll be challenged to ditch a few of your current beliefs. Let the market guide you rather than force your beliefs onto the market. Your emphasis must be on what works, rather than what the textbooks say should work. 

Remember the trading basics, AW, AL and W%. You've got to create a winning set of numbers consistently.

Enjoy the work, enjoy the journey.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



peter2 said:


> All the best, but you're going to have to work your butt off finding an edge in the ASX equity intra-day arena.
> 
> You've got Bella's books, pour over them and create a process to find a few "stocks in play" each day. As you know US stocks are much more liquid than ASX. You must trade with very high volume stocks or be prepared to be stranded.
> 
> ASX stocks will move with the index or move with their own stock specific news. IMO it's important to have an idea what's likely to move the stocks you're interested in.
> 
> You'll probably end up with a small list (10) of favourites that move with the index and a few small caps that are "hot" at the time.
> 
> You'll have to create and apply a new skill-set that is completely different to what you've been doing. I don't envy your task.
> 
> I know you know enough now to do it (believe it). However you'll be challenged to ditch a few of your current beliefs. Let the market guide you rather than force your beliefs onto the market. Your emphasis must be on what works, rather than what the textbooks say should work.
> 
> Remember the trading basics, AW, AL and W%. You've got to create a winning set of numbers consistently.
> 
> Enjoy the work, enjoy the journey.




Couldn't have summed it up better and the size of this challenge isn't lost on me. Appreciate the advice.

I'm very fortunate to have time on my side, an intense passion to succeed,a very understanding wife and a quiet spot to focus for hours at a time...As well i like to 'systemise' processes like this. Not in an algorithmic way, but establishing a set routine of tasks in preparation and execution of an idea or strategy.

We'll see how we go, if i don't like the liquidity, pace or number of opportunities that i can generate, I've got the futures to go back to...


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Does anyone use interactive brokers to execute trades intra-day on ASX stocks? If so, which method is quickest? You can actually use book trade, which is easiest for me because i'm used to using it, any other fast methods?


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## skc

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Does anyone use interactive brokers to execute trades intra-day on ASX stocks? If so, which method is quickest? You can actually use book trade, which is easiest for me because i'm used to using it, any other fast methods?




- My suggestion is to ditch IB and use WebIress or something like Pulse (by open markets). They have the market depth function which you can click your orders in. IB can be useful for technical chart based trading.. you can then set bracket orders the night before and let it trigger intraday. But I don't think it's that suitable for intraday, point-and-click type trading.

- If you are confident with your risk management you should look to use a DMA CFD provider who would let you trade any stock on the ASX. You want this for 3 reasons: 1) because you want to trade short easily and cheaply; 2) some CFD providers only let you trade a selected list of shares - so if some news come up on some obscure name, you can't take that opportunity; and 3) you want to be able to use leverage at the right opportunity.

- To build your daily watchlist is simple... 
1/ names with big moves in the last 2 sessions
2/ names with news in the last 2 sessions (might overlap 1/) and during the day
3/ names at key levels through your chart scans
4/ names in sectors that are moving (iron ores, oil, gold etc)
5/ names which peers have news - when ANZ announced more bad debt provision, the smart traders are shorting every other bank BEFORE they move.

I'd be surprise if you don't find 50-60 names using the above. You can then refine the list to suit your personal style and perferences. 

- The biggest difference with stocks vs futures is that, with futures you are trading a single instrument, while with stocks you are faced with 2000+ names. Each name / sector have different characteristics, seasonality, players, liquidity, baked in expectations etc etc. The more you know about certain names, the better decision you can make in as short a time as possible. I have always described day trading as hunting... the more you know about the habits of an animal, the more you know where and when to look for the kill.

- The news you need access to is...
1/ ASX announcements
2/ Global indices, FX and key commodity prices
3/ Fin review 
4/ Broker research (if available)
5/ Hot Cu forum (if you trade the penny end)

- Try to reduce your trading costs. With >$50k, a CFD provider you should be able to trade @ 8bps with no minimum ticket size (that's very important). If you start to do a few $m per month, you can negotiate it lower. Anything higher than that you'd need much higher hit rate to make things work.

- Allow at least a year before you find your routine and niche.

- PM me if you want to know more about Propex.


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## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> GB, whats the best way to get this application onto more screens? Is there an undock sort of feature or just spread it out, drawing it over the other screens?




I don't know that, but it is multi-screen friendly.

If you decide to trade big caps, one of those brokers that charges once for mutiple orders on the same day/same stock would be worth looking at.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

SKC, thanks for the advice. Lots to take in there.


GB, I figured out out to expand the platform to my other screens. Iguana2 can break out into 4 screens. That gives me lots left for other bits and pieces.

Yeah, I like the liquidity on the big stocks, but there's more algo activity it seems. Lots of stuffing and pulling....


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## minwa

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Watching with interest..but just curious are you not trading the euro indices for now ? Curious because you seem to be some seeing success there recently. I assume the time slot is not suitable because evening should be for family time ?


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



minwa said:


> Watching with interest..but just curious are you not trading the euro indices for now ? Curious because you seem to be some seeing success there recently. I assume the time slot is not suitable because evening should be for family time ?




Yeah Minwa, we just moved to Brisbane 7 weeks ago. I can go back to the eurex products if I have to, but it's not ideal. I'm really a morning person.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Yesterday i did my first "in play" list. I had too many stocks on it, 20 or so. Today i'll use a shorter list and then watch what the guys are watching in the chat room that i've joined. Pretty good crew in there, Bryce Edwards and Alan McGrath. I think i can learn a bit from watching my own stocks as well as watching what other are calling out...I have to record this morning because its also swimming lesson day for my little fella and my wife is not comfortable driving here yet.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Today i spent the morning on Futures again. I got my IB data working on the HKFE products with the auction vista working. It was a nice sell off to, some key levels were taken out easily. Bit of a risk off day so far, with China leading the way down. I've got another few weeks on my equity platform trials so i'll continue to watch those intra-day around their open, then the HKFE until 4 pm.


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## aramz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



peter2 said:


> All the best, but you're going to have to work your butt off finding an edge in the ASX equity intra-day arena.
> 
> You've got Bella's books, pour over them and create a process to find a few "stocks in play" each day. As you know US stocks are much more liquid than ASX. You must trade with very high volume stocks or be prepared to be stranded.
> 
> ASX stocks will move with the index or move with their own stock specific news. IMO it's important to have an idea what's likely to move the stocks you're interested in.
> 
> You'll probably end up with a small list (10) of favourites that move with the index and a few small caps that are "hot" at the time.
> 
> You'll have to create and apply a new skill-set that is completely different to what you've been doing. I don't envy your task.
> 
> I know you know enough now to do it (believe it). However you'll be challenged to ditch a few of your current beliefs. Let the market guide you rather than force your beliefs onto the market. Your emphasis must be on what works, rather than what the textbooks say should work.
> 
> Remember the trading basics, AW, AL and W%. You've got to create a winning set of numbers consistently.
> 
> Enjoy the work, enjoy the journey.





Hey Peter2,

You mentioned "bella's books". Just wondering what bella's books were?

Cheers

Luke


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## aramz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Yesterday i did my first "in play" list. I had too many stocks on it, 20 or so. Today i'll use a shorter list and then watch what the guys are watching in the chat room that i've joined. Pretty good crew in there, Bryce Edwards and Alan McGrath. I think i can learn a bit from watching my own stocks as well as watching what other are calling out...I have to record this morning because its also swimming lesson day for my little fella and my wife is not comfortable driving here yet.




Hey CanOz,

I am enjoying reading your thread and the switch to ASX equities. Just wondering what the trading room is that you were referring too that had Bryce Edwards and Alan McGrath in there?

Cheers

Luke


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



aramz said:


> Hey Peter2,
> 
> You mentioned "bella's books". Just wondering what bella's books were?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Luke




Mike Bellefiore

One Good Trade

The Playbook


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



aramz said:


> Hey CanOz,
> 
> I am enjoying reading your thread and the switch to ASX equities. Just wondering what the trading room is that you were referring too that had Bryce Edwards and Alan McGrath in there?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Luke




Hi Luke,

I took a $10.00 trial of Alan McGraths CFD Traders Edge chat room.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

I replied to another member on a PM regarding a switch to equity trading and this was my reply



> At the moment i'm still not sure i want to throw out 5 years worth of work on indices. I've a handful of setups that can work into intra-day plays that can_/should_ work on any market, so working on putting these into a trading plan at the moment. I realized that intra-day equity trading was going to mean a completely new plan that would require much more work each day than i have available time. I'm willing to dedicate 8-10 hours a day on something, but really don't want to re-invent the wheel unless i have no choice. I have a proven method, so why not first see that it can be applied to other markets including perhaps, some liquid ASX equities eventually. If i can trade a couple of indices, the SPI, HSI and HHI using my standard setups and plays then that should be enough trades. I can also add some weekly FX plays based on the same sort of thing.
> 
> I'm just not sure i want to re-invent the wheel after i finally realized success on indices, its a difficult position to be in....in any case i'm in the lucky country and very grateful for that!




I've got time if i need to switch, but as Peter2 and SKC mentioned, this is a big switch. I need to make sure i can't be successful on what i have developed in the past first, before i start the switch.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Spark Iguana2 filters for screening....allot of potential here. posted for the benfit of member that PM'd me.


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## VSntchr

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Spark Iguana2 filters for screening....allot of potential here. posted for the benfit of member that PM'd me.




Based on having a look after you mentioned Spark, I applied for the trial. WOW - super impressive and really makes webIress look very dated. It's the first platform that has provided me a chart with VWAP too...something I have found lacking in most others.


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## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



VSntchr said:


> Based on having a look after you mentioned Spark, I applied for the trial. WOW - super impressive and really makes webIress look very dated. It's the first platform that has provided me a chart with VWAP too...something I have found lacking in most others.




It's got unique features, but is hard to navigate (highly counterintuitive) and expensive.  Pros and cons.  Useful in the midst of a raging spec market, like recently.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> It's got unique features, but is hard to navigate (highly counterintuitive) and expensive.  Pros and cons.  Useful in the midst of a raging spec market, like recently.




Funny, i thought it was very intuitive and cheap!


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## skc

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Funny, i thought it was very intuitive and cheap!




I think it's a pretty solid offering. It has good scan capabilities for intraday movers, and it has a good market depth visualisation that isn't available anywhere else.

It's been some time since I trialed it. I wasn't a huge fan of the "intelligent" column headings when you adjust a panel's width... and I don't like the fact that you can't actually trade through it. If you are trading fast action you need to use your broker's depth window which means it's clunky to take advantages of Spark's depth.

Also I believe the depth visualisation is a great replay/learning tool. Find a big stock on a big moving day and see how the depth build/pull etc.


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## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



skc said:


> I think it's a pretty solid offering. It has good scan capabilities for intraday movers, and it has a good market depth visualisation that isn't available anywhere else.
> 
> It's been some time since I trialed it. I wasn't a huge fan of the "intelligent" column headings when you adjust a panel's width... and I don't like the fact that you can't actually trade through it. If you are trading fast action you need to use your broker's depth window which means it's clunky to take advantages of Spark's depth.
> 
> Also I believe the depth visualisation is a great replay/learning tool. Find a big stock on a big moving day and see how the depth build/pull etc.




Yeah that replay functions nearly worth the price alone to get more screen time in. I'm surprised they've not been able to pair with a broker and facilitate execution.


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## Wysiwyg

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Yeah that replay functions nearly worth the price alone to get more screen time in..



Can you reveal what r.t. scans are of interest if that is not too personal? e.g. Break outs or trend changes.


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## craft

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Its a lifestyle choice. I've been working off shifts and days/6-7 days a week for 25 years. I want a day job and i'm sharper in the morning.
> 
> I want to work from early in the morning until dinner time, no more unless its after bath/bedtime (family). Worst case i can trade Eurex products again, its familiar to me and i realized success after many years of screen time, but it means i'm not available at critical family times. I need to find a product that suits my preference for activity, but also my preference for time of day.




Hi Can

Welcome to OZ

Go long young man!!!!!


Aus equity market is pretty small and illiquid and transactionally not very efficient or cost effective. Longer holding periods help minimise these drags. 

I know you said you prefer intraday – but if you’re looking at learning a new skill set.......

Even good traders retire someday – how will you manage your money when time doing other things is more important than time spent trading. (a concept you seem to be grappling with already)  A long term investing skill set will eventually be required why not start developing it whilst you’re still sharp. To my surprise [when I made the switch] I found long term strategies actually more wealth creating. I use stock picking and valuation as my approach but if this doesn’t appeal I’m sure there is long term charting approaches that could be investigated.

Short term trading knowledge is a great foundation to launch into longer term investing. However the psychology is very different and will probably be the determining factor of suitability.  

Any way – just a curve ball to consider, but overall the most important thing is to follow the road of greatest passion – it’s the journey that counts.  If trading is your greatest passion then ignore my suggestion if funding and making time available for other passions is the priority then maybe consider.

Cheers


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Hope u gents had fun on that BoJ move!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Wysiwyg said:


> Can you reveal what r.t. scans are of interest if that is not too personal? e.g. Break outs or trend changes.




You can do things such as scanning for momentum, stocks trading at their 52 week high and then at the high for the day (and the low etc.) You can scan for relationship to indicators, such as VWAP, relative volume. You can scan just for gainers/loser and then apply filters for liquidity etc. You can look for risers in the x minutes, etc. Then you can use a bunch of this stuff all together as well. Its nearly infinitely configurable.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

do a little shake, luv a little bake, get up tonight......sing it

cheap supply..... 

watch honkers rip its way upstairs


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



craft said:


> Hi Can
> 
> Welcome to OZ
> 
> Go long young man!!!!!
> 
> 
> Aus equity market is pretty small and illiquid and transactionally not very efficient or cost effective. Longer holding periods help minimise these drags.
> 
> I know you said you prefer intraday – but if you’re looking at learning a new skill set.......
> 
> Even good traders retire someday – how will you manage your money when time doing other things is more important than time spent trading. (a concept you seem to be grappling with already)  A long term investing skill set will eventually be required why not start developing it whilst you’re still sharp. To my surprise [when I made the switch] I found long term strategies actually more wealth creating. I use stock picking and valuation as my approach but if this doesn’t appeal I’m sure there is long term charting approaches that could be investigated.
> 
> Short term trading knowledge is a great foundation to launch into longer term investing. However the psychology is very different and will probably be the determining factor of suitability.
> 
> Any way – just a curve ball to consider, but overall the most important thing is to follow the road of greatest passion – it’s the journey that counts.  If trading is your greatest passion then ignore my suggestion if funding and making time available for other passions is the priority then maybe consider.
> 
> Cheers




Thanks Craft, great advice. I've always though that combining fundamentals with technicals was a great way to go. Even if that means using a ranking system for momentum and them running the stocks through a fundamental filter. 

I've got a couple of things on the go, but i like the intra-day involvement at this stage. Another ten years and i'll be looking for something more passive. I was even considering getting my RG146 and doing some valuation style courses as well.

Like you say, its the journey. I'm enjoying it to the fullest.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Joules MM1 said:


> do a little shake, luv a little bake, get up tonight......sing it
> 
> cheap supply.....
> 
> watch honkers rip its way upstairs




 sold of pretty hard after the BOJ announcement....consolidating into lunch now, very illiquid.


----------



## notting

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



> Shares have taken a step higher, with more buyers jumping into resources stocks as the start of trade in Tokyo and Hong Kong sees solid gains.
> 
> The Nikkei is up by more than 1 per cent ahead of what is hoped will be more easing measures from the Bank of Japan. The Hang Seng is 0.9 per cent ahead.
> 
> BHP is 4.4 per cent up, Rio 3.1 per cent, and Fortescue a hefty 5.4 per cent.




Given everything you read in the papers, especially about why the market is moving, is true, it's pretty obvious what should happen now! 

The volume actions are happening on the buying side however, perhaps they didn't get the news that the hawks are out.

Close will be interesting


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> sold of pretty hard after the BOJ announcement....consolidating into lunch now, very illiquid.




after the knee jerkers finish their, well, ya know, the deep pockets pop for a coffee and some cheap supplies


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Joules MM1 said:


> after the knee jerkers finish their, well, ya know, the deep pockets pop for a coffee and some cheap supplies




Honkers is grinding the shorts out at the moment, but i wonder if this has got the bid to test the point at which the market broke on the announcement?


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Then you can use a bunch of this stuff all together as well. Its nearly infinitely configurable.



 Looks similar to Trade Ideas that I was looking at many years ago but Trade Ideas only has U.S. market data feeds from what I can gather. I have a custom trade scanner for 20 ideas in Amibroker e.g.




		Code:
	

I1 = ParamToggle("Smart Money", "Off|On");
if(I1)
AlertIf(SmartMoney, "SOUND C:\\WINDOWS\\Media\\bird_chirping2.wav", "Smart Money", 0,1+2+4+8 );
if(I1) 
 AddColumn(C, "Smart Money", 1.2, IIf(SmartMoney, colorBlue, colorWhite));

Y1 = ParamToggle("Price Break Up", "Off|On");
if(Y1)
AlertIf(BreakUp, "SOUND C:\\WINDOWS\\Media\\come_get_some.wav", "Price Break Up", 0, 4+8 );
if(Y1)
 AddColumn(C, "Price Break Up", 1.4, IIf(BreakUp, colorDarkBlue, colorWhite));


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Yeah i heard that Trade Ideas is a similar product, but as you say olnly for US Stocks.


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Spark has DDE too so useful for Amib. as an aside.


p.s. I lived in Brisbane for 12 years and left when the Clem Jones was half way under the river. Not a rat race person myself.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Wysiwyg said:


> Spark has DDE too so useful for Amib. as an aside.
> 
> 
> p.s. I lived in Brisbane for 12 years and left when the Clem Jones was half way under the river. _Not a rat race person myself._




Neither am i, If it was only my choice i'd live in the hills on near the beach....that said i do love it here, lots to do outdoors, lots of cool restaurants, everything handy..


----------



## fiftyeight

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



craft said:


> Hi Can
> 
> I found long term strategies actually more wealth creating. I use stock picking and valuation as my approach but if this doesn’t appeal I’m sure there is long term charting approaches that could be investigated.




Maybe I have it all wrong

But long term strategies require a greater amount of capital and will generate less immediate cash flow?

For example, say I hate my job but I have a mortgage and responsibilities and limited capital. I don't see how longer term investing will lead to leaving the rat race any time soon.

However, if someone was to crack shorter term trading their escape could be much quicker....... IF they crack it


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Can, sweeping up the mess,  longside janitors are back


----------



## craft

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



fiftyeight said:


> Maybe I have it all wrong
> 
> But long term strategies require a greater amount of capital and will generate less immediate cash flow?
> 
> For example, say I hate my job but I have a mortgage and responsibilities and limited capital. I don't see how longer term investing will lead to leaving the rat race any time soon.
> 
> However, if someone was to crack shorter term trading their escape could be much quicker....... IF they crack it




You are right. If you need to draw regular income, use leverage or access other people’s money in some form   then the smoothness of your returns is paramount.   I'm yet to find a Long term holding strategy that doesn't require an increased tolerance to volatility.


----------



## rnr

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



fiftyeight said:


> Maybe I have it all wrong
> 
> But long term strategies require a greater amount of capital and will generate less immediate cash flow?
> 
> For example, say I hate my job but I have a mortgage and responsibilities and limited capital. I don't see how longer term investing will lead to leaving the rat race any time soon.
> 
> However, if someone was to crack shorter term trading their escape could be much quicker....... IF they crack it




Speaking of short term trading, have you considered a mean reversion system?

Compare the equity graphs of both a trend following system and mean reversion system.
You should see why I make the comment.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Neither am i, If it was only my choice i'd live in the hills on near the beach....that said i do love it here, lots to do outdoors, lots of cool restaurants, everything handy..




http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-sunshine+beach-121013534


----------



## fiftyeight

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



rnr said:


> Speaking of short term trading, have you considered a mean reversion system?
> 
> Compare the equity graphs of both a trend following system and mean reversion system.
> You should see why I make the comment.




Yeah I have had a look at equity curves for a number systems.

Intraday I always seem to be looking to fade, just the way I am. I actually knew this would be the case before I placed at trade. Im sure I posted something about in one of my first posts haha


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-sunshine+beach-121013534




Nah, it's under contract mate. We're going up there first weekend in may for a look...Internet sucks up there though...


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Nah, it's under contract mate. We're going up there first weekend in may for a look...Internet sucks up there though...




Radge lives in Noosa.  He seems to cope ok.


----------



## Newt

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-sunshine+beach-121013534




Choke!!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Newt said:


> Choke!!




Surely within a trader's price range newt?


----------



## notting

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Radge lives in Noosa.  He seems to cope ok.




Yeah but he plays golf!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Surely within a trader's price range newt?




That's got to be 4-5 million?

On a positive note, I may have a couple of new choices. To join either a prop firm for their training program, or learn how to trade spreads with a mate that is a prop trader as my mentor. 

The first option may be in Sydney, for on site training. Not sure how practical that might be.

The second option is quite interesting. This guy has the time to teach me and he's got years and years of experience in the field. I can work from my office. This would be on energy spreads initially, but there are endless opportunities for index spreads, commodities etc. 

The prospect of trading spreads with a mentor is quite compelling. It's something I've been interested in for a while now, but having a mentor can be a game changer.

I'll decide over the weekend, I have calls with both parties tomorrow afternoon.


----------



## Roller_1

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



rnr said:


> Speaking of short term trading, have you considered a mean reversion system?
> 
> Compare the equity graphs of both a trend following system and mean reversion system.
> You should see why I make the comment.




I agree mean reversion is alot more appeailng to me compared to trend following, higher returns + smother returns


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> That's got to be 4-5 million?
> 
> On a positive note, I may have a couple of new choices. To join either a prop firm for their training program, or learn how to trade spreads with a mate that is a prop trader as my mentor.
> 
> The first option may be in Sydney, for on site training. Not sure how practical that might be.
> 
> The second option is quite interesting. This guy has the time to teach me and he's got years and years of experience in the field. I can work from my office. This would be on energy spreads initially, but there are endless opportunities for index spreads, commodities etc.
> 
> The prospect of trading spreads with a mentor is quite compelling. It's something I've been interested in for a while now, but having a mentor can be a game changer.
> 
> I'll decide over the weekend, I have calls with both parties tomorrow afternoon.




Is the Sydney one with Bronte Capital?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Is the Sydney one with Bronte Capital?




lol....no


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

Well after a few weeks of consideration, I've decided to pursue the energy spreads with a mentor. If i went with the Prop firm's training and it worked out, i'd have to relocate to Sydney. That's not an option right now.

At the same time i'm going to try and develop and test a longer term position trading strategy for currencies and commodities. This is also something I've wanted to do and couldn't because of the time required to trade intra-day. I've got some ideas and i just need to formalize this into a general plan, daily routine, risk plan, develop my journal for it and then start trading small size until i have a decent sample of trades to review. I should be up and running with this by next week. 

With the energy spreads, i'm having all sorts of difficulties with TT and although the local support is great, they keep pushing me back to my clearer that's overseas....that's a pain. So again i'll have to think about shutting down that account and opening a MacQuarie account....another headache. TT is cheaper for spreading than CQG, by about 600 bucks a month. So i'll go with them on demo mode first before i start trading 1 lots.

So, at this stage, it looks i'm done with outright intra-day trading. This is a bonus really, although i love the analysis i wasn't really thrilled about the opportunities for trading the SPI. The SPI is a multi personality wolf in sheep clothing. Because its heavily influenced by the NK and HKFE markets, its just as likely to switch its bias at the various opens and lunch breaks as its not. I think if you watched it for long enough you could scrape up a handful of plays, but its allot of work for little opportunity really. The Hang Seng and HHI are pretty good markets. I really like the HHI. Its a little thicker and less volatile, but i really struggle to find solid levels to play off of when i cannot get my longer term volume. Also, the IB data is very hit and miss. Its can be very misleading if you're looking for big players to stop a move.

Equities are out as well. Although i might still swing a few CFDs.

I must be the only trader in Australia that has the capital to trade but can't find a strategy and market to trade....most of the time its the other way around.  Europe really has the best time zone for all of this...


----------



## peter2

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

I see a lot of me in that post of you CanOz and I don't like it. Both of us need a kick in the bum sometimes. Right now you need one more than me. All you seem to be doing is looking for difficulties. Accept that the internet, trading platforms, brokers and liquidity are crap in Australia and get on with it. 



CanOz said:


> This is also something I've wanted to do and couldn't because of the time required to trade intra-day.




This excuse doesn't cut it. If you really wanted to do it, you would have done it by now and be reviewing the results. How about getting this up and running through a journal thread here at ASF? The extra accountability might help. 

There are plenty of markets to trade during the day and there are plenty of strategies available. Do you really have a belief about how markets move? Ditch all the fancy indicators. Do you see any structure or repeatable patterns in a basic price chart? 

I see swing highs and swing lows. They're easy to spot. I define the trend using these swing points. Once the trend is defined all I need is a place to jump in that gives me an acceptable RR. 

Good luck with the energy spreads. I hope your mentor has a large boot size. Then again, why should the mentor have to get you motivated?

ps: This "kick in the bum" applies to us both. Don't feel singled out.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



peter2 said:


> I see a lot of me in that post of you CanOz and I don't like it. Both of us need a kick in the bum sometimes.
> 
> ps: This "kick in the bum" applies to us both. Don't feel singled out.




How so?  You seem to be very focused...

Totally agree with the kick in the butt...I've let the frustration get to me, i'm really out of my comfort zone with intra-day indices. I've got the spreader in my ear telling me how useless i am for wasting time on outrights, i can't trade anything really with IB anymore, my accounts are not yet setup for FX or CFDs....

Its all very de-motivating....

I'll be right, just having a moment...

Appreciate the virtual kick, seriously.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> I've got the spreader in my ear telling me how useless i am for wasting time on outrights.




That's interesting, I noticed those that spread at Propex were very much the same, they swore by it, looked at you a little funny if you traded outrights. I've never understood the point, they say it's just like creating another instrument(trading the spread between two), so why not just trade an outright? I never got into it, could never figure out what to spread and all the ratios and commissions etc. when an outright is just sitting there much simpler waiting to be traded. Whatever works I guess, I've always been interested in it, never gone much further though. 

All the best with whatever you choose to do


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*

I'll add my 2c.

Canoz, you have more bells and whistles than anyone I know!  I've been able to trade ASX stocks with a single laptop hooked up to a dial up internet.  In fact my biggest ever winner was done this way (AUM, now CDU on 5-7-2006... memorable day that).

Also, any mentor who calls you 'useless' ain't worth the time of day, imo.  Trust yourself.  You have enough screen hours.


----------



## skc

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> Well after a few weeks of consideration, I've decided to pursue the energy spreads with a mentor.




Spread is very different to outright in the mentality required. You are often selling into strength and buying weakness... your equity curve may be smoother with many small wins but then occassionally you will suffer a large loss. You need patience to sit through further divergence in the spread, and face ongoing question by yourself whether the spread will keep blowing out. 

So having a (good) mentor can make a ton of difference... best of luck. 



CanOz said:


> Equities are out as well.




And I was hoping that you will join the limited ranks of Brisbane based equity traders. Please add to the thread title "Considering a transition...." so I wouldn't get my hopes up next time!



CanOz said:


> I must be the only trader in Australia that has the capital to trade but can't find a strategy and market to trade....most of the time its the other way around.  Europe really has the best time zone for all of this...




Actually, most of the time these people have neither the capital or a strategy. They have somewhere between a fantasy and a goal.

Philosophical question - is someone really a trader without a market or a strategy?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



skc said:


> Spread is very different to outright in the mentality required. You are often selling into strength and buying weakness... your equity curve may be smoother with many small wins but then occassionally you will suffer a large loss. You need patience to sit through further divergence in the spread, and face ongoing question by yourself whether the spread will keep blowing out.
> 
> So having a (good) mentor can make a ton of difference... best of luck.
> 
> 
> 
> And I was hoping that you will join the limited ranks of Brisbane based equity traders. Please add to the thread title "Considering a transition...." so I wouldn't get my hopes up next time!
> 
> 
> 
> Actually, most of the time these people have neither the capital or a strategy. They have somewhere between a fantasy and a goal.
> 
> Philosophical question - is someone really a trader without a market or a strategy?




You're absolutely right skc, I'm just an unemployed bum at the moment.


----------



## skc

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



CanOz said:


> You're absolutely right skc, I'm just an unemployed bum at the moment.




Lol. That's what I feel like in the first year of trying to trade full time.

At least you are a well capitalised and seasoned bum. I was an underfunded green bum.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



Gringotts Bank said:


> I'll add my 2c.
> 
> Canoz, you have more bells and whistles than anyone I know!  I've been able to trade ASX stocks with a single laptop hooked up to a dial up internet.  In fact my biggest ever winner was done this way (AUM, now CDU on 5-7-2006... memorable day that).
> 
> Also, any mentor who calls you 'useless' ain't worth the time of day, imo.  Trust yourself.  You have enough screen hours.




Well some of that was leftover from my Eurex trading and quite honestly watching all the markets go bid or offer at the same time helped me execute momentum trades. There seems to be little useful correlations in that same way here in Asia, except around the opens/closes. Yeah, now in hindsight, all this screen estate is sort of wasted. I'm sure I'll fill it up. Seriously i can scale down as easily as scale up with screens. They are handy though and I'll use a section of screens to look for new ideas whist i keep an eye on trades ideas setting and executing new trades.


----------



## VSntchr

*Re: A transition to ASX Intraday Equity trading*



skc said:


> Lol. That's what I feel like in the first year of trying to trade full time.
> At least you are a well capitalised and seasoned bum. I was an underfunded green bum.



I feel like I can resonate with this 
After around two years now I think I have graduated from "completely underfunded fluorescent green bum" to "semi-funded naive bum".


----------



## CanOz

Well we've changed the thread title, Thanks Joe.

I'll use this, as Pete Suggested as a bit of a narrated journal of my plan to trade 'something' here in Australia fulltime.

So, at the moment I've settled on a position/swing trading strategy for currencies and commodities. 

I'm currently formalizing the trading plan & risk plan. I'm going to try and use Edgewonk as my trade record and journal. i'll give some updates here but i don't plan on posting trade by trade details here as its a little unproductive.


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> I'm going to try and use *Edgewonk *as my trade record and journal



Have you been using it prior to now? 
I subscribed for their trial, but ended up giving it the flick as I realised I enjoyed the process of developing my own journal more. That said, I thought it looked very good and had some excellent features - just a bit of a learning curve to go through.
They also had some very good educational stuff they put out that I enjoyed reading.


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> Have you been using it prior to now?
> I subscribed for their trial, but ended up giving it the flick as I realised I enjoyed the process of developing my own journal more. That said, I thought it looked very good and had some excellent features - just a bit of a learning curve to go through.
> They also had some very good educational stuff they put out that I enjoyed reading.






I started using it when i was trading the Dax, but iwas unbelieveably time consuming. I spent more time on data entry than reviewing trades. I told them that too and asked for something where i could dump from Ninajtrader. They agreed and said they were working on something.

With this strategy i'll have more time to spend on entering trades into my journal and reviewing trades. I have the option of using ninjatrader here too, as i'm using an FXCM account through NT. So i could use NT to dump into a spreadsheet. I many do that yet, but i want to have a crack at Edgewonk first. Agree, developing and owning your own is very rewarding.


----------



## CanOz

So before i can start trading, here is what i have to do fist:

Write down my trading plan. 

This will cover: 
Goals short term/ultimate
what markets/products
what time frames for analysis and execution of trades
Execution method

Preparation requirements
-daily preparation routine checklist

Risk Plan:
Trade Risk
Max Portfolio Risk
Max open positions
Stop loss strategy
Profit taking strategy
News/announcement rules

Contingency plans:
No power
No Internet
No Phone
Hedging options
Alternate Broker

Description of plays and trade entry criteria


----------



## CanOz

Next i need to fund my accounts and setup my trading platforms.  Its my view that i need two accounts in order to have a hedge if i cannot access one account. I intend to take the majority of FX trades through my FXCM account and then commodity trades through my FP Markets account. 

FP Market account is funded - awaiting Iress data 
FXCM is awaiting the funds to clear - Awaiting live data but the Demo data is available to setup workspaces

Setup of trading/analysis platforms/instrument lists/workspaces and chart templates


I am having one custom indicator coded for me for this. It is in Amibroker and it will help me to identify levels where i expect the market to find sellers/buyers. Its a very simple idea based on HLC of different times frames.

I will use a combination of Amibroker/Ninjatrader and the broker platforms.

News feeds/ fundamental themes 
Live and peridoic briefing news - TradetheNews
Calendars - Trading Economics
Tweet Deck
Bloomberg - 5 things you need to know today


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Those things aren't important mate.  Come on.  They might be important if you're setting up a hedge fund, but I'm assuming that's not the case.

The thing stopping you is fear.  Every trader knows fear and there's no shame in it.  None at all.  

Fear of losing, of being wrong, of having to explain where the savings went, of hurting others....  they're all legitimate.  But they need to be tamed to some degree.  The easiest way to tame fear is to have a system that is back/forward tested.  A proven system will do away with 95% of your list... then all you do is plug away each day with your orders.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Those things aren't important mate.  Come on.  They might be important if you're setting up a hedge fund, but I'm assuming that's not the case.
> 
> The thing stopping you is fear.  Every trader knows fear and there's no shame in it.  None at all.
> 
> Fear of losing, of being wrong, of having to explain where the savings went, of hurting others....  they're all legitimate.  But they need to be tamed to some degree.  The easiest way to tame fear is to have a system that is back/forward tested.  A proven system will do away with 95% of your list... then all you do is plug away each day with your orders.




lol...


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Those things aren't important mate.  Come on.  They might be important if you're setting up a hedge fund, but I'm assuming that's not the case.
> 
> The thing stopping you is fear.  Every trader knows fear and there's no shame in it.  None at all.
> 
> Fear of losing, of being wrong, of having to explain where the savings went, of hurting others....  they're all legitimate.  But they need to be tamed to some degree.  The easiest way to tame fear is to have a system that is back/forward tested.  A proven system will do away with 95% of your list... then all you do is plug away each day with your orders.




I disagree that every trading method needs to systematized. 

I also know from experience that by first creating a detailed plan and then trading either small size live or demo. Then reviewing what works and what does not after a relevant sample size, will give you the confidence to size up when the time is right.

My plan is to trade small size micro lots first. Then once i have 100 trades or so, i'll evaluate the method and see if i can improve the results. After that, i'll review again and then make a decision to go to my full account size.

This process is very normal for me, i have no fear of losses if i take the proper steps in preparing.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> I disagree that every trading method needs to systematized.
> 
> I also know from experience that by first creating a detailed plan and then trading either small size live or demo. Then reviewing what works and what does not after a relevant sample size, will give you the confidence to size up when the time is right.
> 
> My plan is to trade small size micro lots first. Then once i have 100 trades or so, i'll evaluate the method and see if i can improve the results. After that, i'll review again and then make a decision to go to my full account size.
> 
> This process is very normal for me, i have no fear of losses if i take the proper steps in preparing.




I had the impression that you were always finding problems which stopped you trading, like issues with the internet or platform or whatever it was.  Or having to complete more development 'steps' before you could actually start.  Maybe you're just an extremely thorough guy, but to me it looks like an endless succession of delay tactics.  

Losing money is painful.  Losing a lot of money quickly is extremely painful.  How could you say you're not afraid of loss?  If you're not in touch with your emotions, then they are going to interfere with your decision making in a big way.

What seems to happen with the top discretionary traders is that they enjoy the process to the degree that fear just fades into the background.  The process is the focus, and thoughts of loss (*and gain*) are not operating in the mind.  When minwa says he hit a drawdown because of greed, he means that his focus became the $gain, which brings fear into the mind.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> I had the impression that you were always finding problems which stopped you trading, like issues with the internet or platform or whatever it was.  Or having to complete more development 'steps' before you could actually start.  Maybe you're just an extremely thorough guy, but to me it looks like an endless succession of delay tactics.
> 
> Losing money is painful.  Losing a lot of money quickly is extremely painful.  How could you say you're not afraid of loss?  If you're not in touch with your emotions, then they are going to interfere with your decision making in a big way.
> 
> What seems to happen with the top discretionary traders is that they enjoy the process to the degree that fear just fades into the background.  The process is the focus, and thoughts of loss (*and gain*) are not operating in the mind.  When minwa says he hit a drawdown because of greed, he means that his focus became the $gain, which brings fear into the mind.




The degree of challenges that i went through in China to trade live were totally unreasonable. I thought that i overcame most of those and in the process became an expert user of my platform, especially trouble shooting. On top of this i was in and out of career assignments. Sure, i'm risk averse by nature and not getting any bolder as i get older. But i didn't delay anything in China purposely. 

Once here, i was in no rush to jump back in, as i wanted the time to prepare and use what i learned previously. If anything i feel somewhat anxious about the time remaining to achieve the ultimatum set by the missus. 

I've been trading for 11 years GB. I have no problem taking planned losses. Unplanned losses frustrate me at times, but less than leaving profit on the table or having a trade take off as planned without (enraging). Large losses as a result of unplanned activity aggravate me, i try to avoid this at all cost.

I'm well aware of my physiological vulnerabilities, i've spent time with well paid experts on this.

Thanks for you interest, i'll be sure to stay aware of my fear and anxieties.


----------



## CanOz

As part of the trade risk and position sizing i need to develop a quick reference table that allows for quick position sizing uses an account size, trade risk and the pair involved.

Here is a position size calculator for reference. Not sure if anyone has a more advanced spreadsheet for this, but i would be grateful if you do.


----------



## McLovin

Hello Can, I'm listening.


----------



## CanOz

lol....@ McLovin


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

McLovin said:


> Hello Can, I'm listening.
> 
> View attachment 66668




LOL that cracked me up McLovin  

Can, did you want me to have a go at coding up the Amibroker indicator you had made in NT? More than happy to, not saying it would work perfectly or anything and might take me a while, would obviously be free of charge, but I am keen to get into developing more so need all the practice I can get.


----------



## CanOz

Here is the watch-list of pairs for the FX portion of the plan.


----------



## CanOz

I'm having to knock off a few pairs as historical data is unavailable for them on Ninjatrader. That's fine, i'll still have plenty of markets. 

My FXCM account is funded. I'll test the live data next week.

Once i get my work-space built i can start to work on the standard lot size chart.


----------



## CanOz

My Trading Plan is complete. I've sent it out to a couple of peers that i have for their input. The trade selection criteria is not here, but everything else is included.



> Purpose – to take trades at solid levels with the intent of getting into a combination of mean reverting and trend following moves in currency pairs and commodity CFDs
> Goals and Optimum Target Performance
> To generate a positive expectancy >.35 with an average drawdown of less than 15%  and win rate of 50-55%
> To achieve an average risk/reward of 1.6-2.0
> To generate a positive expectancy over a relevant sample period before sizing up
> Ultimate goal – to generate sufficient monthly income to adopt as a fulltime business
> Products to trade – any FXCM currency pair or commodity
> Time Frames
> Analysis – Monthly/Weekly/Daily
> Execution – 60 minute
> Risk per trade <=1%
> Maximum portfolio risk 10%
> Maximum open positions 20
> Execution method – Limit orders
> Stop loss strategy – Initial only
> Take profit strategy –
> Trend following trades
> 25% position taken off at 1R
> 25% position taken off at 2R – Initial stop to BE
> 25% position trailed on daily time frame
> Mean Reverting Trades
> 50% position taken off at 1R
> 50% position taken off at target
> This take profit strategy, if followed with a 50% win rate should yield a positive expectancy rate of .36
> Adding to positions will be considered as new positions
> Weekend positions – Only trades in profit >2R will be held over the weekend
> Major News – positions with major news associated, eg. NFP will be exited before the news. Orders pending before news releases will be removed and replaced 5 minutes after the news release.
> 
> News feeds:
> News feeds/ fundamental themes
> Live and periodic briefing news - TradetheNews
> Calendars - Trading Economics
> Tweet Deck
> Bloomberg - 5 things you need to know today
> Journal and trade records- Ninjatrader and Edgewonk
> 
> Initial risk and stop location
> Initial risk needs to be sufficient to allow the market at least half of the average daily range against the position at a level. This initial stop level can be used if there is sufficient evidence of strong levels of support/resistance within the market structure between the stop and the entry. This is considered a ‘half wide’ initial stop. A full wide initial stop is considered to be 1 x the average daily range and should be used if there is a lack of market structure between the half wide stop and the entry.
> Average True Range and Average Daily Range should be compared on the pair as stops are placed in case of major difference. The Average Daily Range will overrule the ATR, until evidence otherwise indicates that the ATR should overrule. Notes in the journal should be made regarding these two range indicators.
> 
> 
> Review and improvement
> After each 100 trades, the performance of the individual trades will be reviewed for:
> 1.)	Adherence to the rules
> 2.)	P/L by play type
> 3.)	Win rate by play type
> 4.)	AME/AFE by play type
> 5.)	Overall maximum portfolio heat
> 6.)	Equity curve drawdown
> Journal notes to be reviewed
> All reviews should result in a series of trade plan revisions in order to decrease drawdown/portfolio heat and increase overall profitability with a focus to achieve the goals of the plan.
> Initial capital for micro size plan – 15000 AUD
> Accounts with FP Markets and FXCM




All the accounts have been funded. I've got to format my Edgewonk journal yet, that's quite time consuming but i can do that during the day. My live launch date is Wednesday.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Wow....you sure do put in a baffling amount of effort on this stuff. Totally boggles my mind why you bother which such an elaborate trading "plan", it's almost like you enjoy this procedure of writing all this up and getting it all together more than you do the actual trading? Each to their own of course but I could never do all that like you do, I'd rather just have a few plays that I've learnt, the rest I know or is in my head, I'd rather be trading and watching/learning the markets rather than writing up big plans, things that actually help my trading, writing a plan out has never helped me or made me any profits, plus I'd never look at it, I'd write it up then put it in a drawer or on the desk and it would gather dust, not like you forget those things, like oh crap what's my risk percentage again? *refers to massive plan on page 7 section 15.1 annnnnd I've missed the move.  

But I guess I'm shorter term trades and definitely couldn't be that systematic, more feel and market flow and patterns, especially with the dax, everything is dynamic and ballpark, not exact for me. Not that I know anything of course, your way of doing things just amazes me  

Luckily there's no right or wrong way, if it works for you, it works!


----------



## CanOz

I'd be interested in seeing the plans of the super disciplined swing traders such as Peter2 etc. I agree that ultra short term is more of a 'get the bias/theme right and play the order flow'. Kinda of hard to quantify and my plans were very brief for that style of trading. 

I always tried to write down a plan though, otherwise i had nothing in head to hold me accountable. I've put allot of work into this one because i want to back test a portion of it. So i'll look to get it coded to do that and the logic will be easy to describe from the plan. Also, i want to be super disciplined with this until i can get a decent sample size. It could take me 10 weeks or more to get 100 trades, i don't want to be sloppy with my decisions during that time as i want good information to review from Edgewonk.

I've got the time to do this properly, so that's my intention. 

Criticism is welcome. Appreciate the feedback.


----------



## CanOz

Here's a typical trade from a level according to the strategies rules...


----------



## CanOz

There is an error in the position scale outs, i need to account for another 25% of the position. I've got one suggestion that i should leave 50% of the position in the trailing stop.


----------



## Roller_1

with  a win% of 50-55% it might be better to use a trail stop for at least some of your position to not limit the profit potential of a trade


----------



## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> with  a win% of 50-55% it might be better to use a trail stop for at least some of your position to not limit the profit potential of a trade




Yeah, agree. 1/3 to 1/2 the position. I've got model each one and see how it affects the profitability.


----------



## Roller_1

Can the system be coded or do you have discretionary elements in there? Sounds like backtesting would save sometime/possibly money!

Profit targets might make you feel good but might not be the best option


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Who advised you to scale out?

http://throwinggoodmoney.com/2016/04/the-myth-of-scaling-out/

Just get a simple entry signal (eg. MA cross), add your discretion to see which trades to take, and start.  If it fails, then it's your confidence that needs work.  Trading doesn't have to be laborious and complicated.


----------



## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> Can the system be coded or do you have discretionary elements in there? Sounds like backtesting would save sometime/possibly money!
> 
> Profit targets might make you feel good but might not be the best option




There are three types of types of plays, the breakout retest should be easist to code. The other two are somewhat more difficult but possible. I'll trade it live with a small account first, following the rules. I can code up part of it aside go and trial those parts as level indicators until I get them how I like. The rest will take time. I have plenty of time and plenty of capital. One day it would be good to be able to back test it, but it's not my full intent.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Who advised you to scale out?
> 
> http://throwinggoodmoney.com/2016/04/the-myth-of-scaling-out/
> 
> Just get a simple entry signal (eg. MA cross), add your discretion to see which trades to take, and start.  If it fails, then it's your confidence that needs work.  Trading doesn't have to be laborious and complicated.




GB, I'm gonna have to put you on ignore or just quit the thread....


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> GB, I'm gonna have to put you on ignore or just quit the thread....




You said you wanted feedback.  I provided a link to something that shows scaling out doesn't work.  And I advised keeping it simple.  Do you want feedback or not?


----------



## CanOz

First up tomorrow, practical driving test. Was supposed to go to a trader meet up in Brisbane tonight but I'm knackered and off to bed. After I get back tomorrow morning, hopefully with a qld licence in my pocket, I'll be working on my trade record and journal, the last of my amibroker workspaces with the new level indicators and a daily preparation worksheet to document my daily routine.

We should be ready for launch on Wednesday.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> You said you wanted feedback.  I provided a link to something that shows scaling out doesn't work.  And I advised keeping it simple.  Do you want feedback or not?




Don't be a smart a$$. You know what you posted. You don't even know the full strategy, part of it is mean reversion and you don't want me to scale out? I should go all out and trail a full stop on the trend trades? Don't even mention the MA cross again.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> part of it is mean reversion and you don't want me to scale out? I should go all out and trail a full stop on the trend trades?




Well I don't, but maybe FX markets behave differently.  

That link I posted above about scaling out was legitimate.

As is this one for trend capture systems:  http://www.automated-trading-system.com/profit-targets-trend-following/

Note Howard's comment in the comment section.

That's why I asked who is giving you the instruction to scale out.  If he's a big shot then I'll butt out.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Well I don't, but maybe FX markets behave differently.
> 
> That link I posted above about scaling out was legitimate.
> 
> As is this one for trend capture systems:  http://www.automated-trading-system.com/profit-targets-trend-following/




There is difference with compounding....he acknowledged that.


----------



## CanOz

GB, there's also the issue of how to manage the trailing stop while I'm not at the screens....although if this works as planned I may move back home.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> GB, there's also the issue of how to manage the trailing stop while I'm not at the screens....although if this works as planned I may move back home.




Just use IG.  Plot a trailing stop or a trendline and get them to trigger if the line is touched.  Walk away and do something else.


----------



## skc

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Each to their own of course but I could never do all that like you do, I'd rather just have a few plays that I've learnt, the rest I know or is in my head, I'd rather be trading and watching/learning the markets rather than writing up big plans, things that actually help my trading, writing a plan out has never helped me or made me any profits, plus I'd never look at it, I'd write it up then put it in a drawer or on the desk and it would gather dust, not like you forget those things, like oh crap what's my risk percentage again? *refers to massive plan on page 7 section 15.1 annnnnd I've missed the move.
> 
> But I guess I'm shorter term trades and definitely couldn't be that systematic, more feel and market flow and patterns, especially with the dax, everything is dynamic and ballpark, not exact for me. Not that I know anything of course, your way of doing things just amazes me
> 
> Luckily there's no right or wrong way, if it works for you, it works!




Having a plan helps one structure ideas and identify anything that hasn't been thought about. Power/internet outage is a good example... I don't have that on my list when I first started trading and it was panic station when my internet went down. I ended up taking my desk top, monitors etc to my in-law's place 15 minutes drive away and set up there for a day (this was before mobile phone tethered data was the norm). 

So having a plan can often help... whether it needs to be written down or not is a different matter.

I do agree though, some of the more dynamic decisions done in market is hard to write down. But there are times when a plan can be very helpful.

A quick example... I read over the weekend that the government has announced backtracking of pathology funding cuts, and I know ASX stocks PRY and SHL are set to benefit. So I studied the charts, studied the impact on stock prices when the cuts were announced, and came up with a plan on how big a size to put on, how much I'd risk, whether I would chase if the stock gaps up X%, where I'd sell etc etc. Now I didn't write these down on paper and refer to them at the open... but the actual planning exercise means I was a lot better prepared to trade these names. And they paid quite well today too.

Planning is preparation... and preparation always helps


----------



## Roller_1

CanOz said:


> There are three types of types of plays, the breakout retest should be easist to code. The other two are somewhat more difficult but possible. I'll trade it live with a small account first, following the rules. I can code up part of it aside go and trial those parts as level indicators until I get them how I like. The rest will take time. I have plenty of time and plenty of capital. One day it would be good to be able to back test it, but it's not my full intent.




Coding up semi discretionary plays would present its own issues i would imagine, you have it worked out anyway by the sounds. Good Luck!


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just use IG.  Plot a trailing stop or a trendline and get them to trigger if the line is touched.  Walk away and do something else.




For the purpose of this live exercise, i'll be using 2 targets and a 30% trailing stop on the 'trend' trades. The MR trades will still use a 2 target stop but i can apply some discretion with that and trail a portion of the final parcel if i wish. 

I'm using NT to trade this and i cannot have the FXCM platform open at the same time. I can use a mechanical chandelier or multi bar stop, but i have to physically trail it.


----------



## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> Coding up semi discretionary plays would present its own issues i would imagine, you have it worked out anyway by the sounds. Good Luck!




Thanks, this is a 100 trade exercise and at the end during the trade review process i can also decide if some degree of automation is worthwhile/feasible..


----------



## Roller_1

CanOz said:


> Thanks, this is a 100 trade exercise and at the end during the trade review process i can also decide if some degree of automation is worthwhile/feasible..




for someone who has been discretionary trading previously like yourself for a long period of time (assuming profitable) and trading fairly standard setups (re-tests of support,BO, triangles etc), then if you follow proper risk management then there is no reason you shouldn't be profitable over a large enough period. Could be a different story if you just traded some random pattern you think you've discovered one day. 

What will you do if after 100 trades you are BE or in drawdown? it doesn't necessarily mean your system is no good.


----------



## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> for someone who has been discretionary trading previously like yourself for a long period of time (assuming profitable) and trading fairly standard setups (re-tests of support,BO, triangles etc), then if you follow proper risk management then there is no reason you shouldn't be profitable over a large enough period. Could be a different story if you just traded some random pattern you think you've discovered one day.
> 
> What will you do if after 100 trades you are BE or in drawdown? it doesn't necessarily mean your system is no good.




Trading the Dax wasn't like that though, it was very short holding periods and re-tests of support,BO, triangles etc, only provided context for trades, entries we more order flow feel. Risk management was hang on with a mental stop until you could get a protective stop in. 

Once i have my 100 trades i'll review them for the criteria i've already outlined in my plan. After that i'll adjust my trading plan accordingly and decide if/how to proceed.

Thanks for the interest.


----------



## CanOz

Well I've had my first live trade closed. It was a loss of 51 pips or 25.5 AUD. I had a second go at that one, the first time it triggered was in Global Simulation Mode, so i caught it and swapped over as it hit my trigger price again.

I had a couple of trades trigger before i realized i as still in Global Simulation Mode one is doing well, I'll let it play out anyway, it was a long on the USDMXN at 18.2150

I have one open trade at the moment on my live account, a short on the AUDJPY at 80.56. We'll see how that hold up over night....


----------



## CanOz

So this is the current AUDJPY trade...and the closed GBPAUD trade.


----------



## CanOz

I have a USDJPY trade pending....thats it for tonight


----------



## CanOz

One i'm watching....


----------



## CanOz

It seems i'm going to have to use the FXCM platform for my trades as NT will cancel my OCO orders at midnight....


----------



## CanOz

Ok, so a small glitch with NT and FXCM, i'll use eSignal for data into NT on FX with my orders managed thru FXCM. This still allow me more flexibility for trailing stops and checking when i'm home. For commodities i'll use FP Markets with MT4. Again, this will give easy access to manage trades. I'll likely start trading commodity CFD's today or tomorrow, starting with oil...


----------



## minwa

I have found FXCM/Oanda/Axi/Vantage all horrible. At this size I did some calculations and found that trading the FX futures and paying the commission saves you more than getting ripped on higher spreads. As size gets bigger, interbank @ Pepperstone or similar (IB...before they got hammered by ASIC..) should prove better than futures. 

That only applies for majors against the USD though, haven't looked at non USD pair's futures. IB Commissions is around $2 per contract with 1 pip spread almost all the time.


----------



## CanOz

minwa said:


> I have found FXCM/Oanda/Axi/Vantage all horrible. At this size I did some calculations and found that trading the FX futures and paying the commission saves you more than getting ripped on higher spreads. As size gets bigger, interbank @ Pepperstone or similar (IB...before they got hammered by ASIC..) should prove better than futures.
> 
> That only applies for majors against the USD though, haven't looked at non USD pair's futures. IB Commissions is around $2 per contract with 1 pip spread almost all the time.




Thanks Minwa!

"At this size", you mean my micro lots or your size? 

Once I've got some stats and have weeded out the stuff, i can think about sizing up to a proper broker. That'll likely be IB for commodities using the minis at first, then yeah Pepperstone as you and a mate suggested as well.

Apparently my spreads on MT4 with FP Markets are pretty good....haven't compared them to FXCM, will do tomorrow


----------



## minwa

CanOz said:


> Thanks Minwa!
> 
> "At this size", you mean my micro lots or your size?
> 
> Once I've got some stats and have weeded out the stuff, i can think about sizing up to a proper broker. That'll likely be IB for commodities using the minis at first, then yeah Pepperstone as you and a mate suggested as well.
> 
> Apparently my spreads on MT4 with FP Markets are pretty good....haven't compared them to FXCM, will do tomorrow




At mini lot size and above..micro lot maybe not. Still, low spreads are most important and I wouldn't touch anything over 1 pip for intraday trading. Prime interbank brokerage is like 0.1-0.3pips on the majors..I am not there yet. FX is unique in that the bigger you trade, the less slippage cost and thus easier trading there is..

Looks like you trade intraday, look for around 5-7PM AEST time for a important swing low/high to be made.


----------



## CanOz

First day of trades out of the way. 

Because I have to treat scales outs as two separate trades, plus as the overwhelming evidence suggests, its better to go all in all out. So I'll be trailing to whole position now, no more scale outs.

Trades from Ninjatrader on the pic below: 1 winner and 3 losers and we're in profit

Will post a weekly summary from Edgewonk.

On current open trade in the AUDNZD


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Because I have to treat scales outs as two separate trades, plus as the overwhelming evidence suggests, its better to go all in all out. So I'll be trailing to whole position now, no more scale outs.




It's good that you're winning, well done.  However, two days ago, you were ready to start, with contingency plans for an asteroid storm or solar flare, but you were listening to some random guy telling you to scale out.  Now what about trading psychology?


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> It's good that you're winning, well done.  However, two days ago, you were ready to start, with contingency plans for an asteroid storm or solar flare, but you were listening to some random guy telling you to scale out.  Now what about trading psychology?







I'm risking 50 bucks a trade dude, i can be pretty mechanical with that level of risk compared to risking 500 EUR a trade in a moulinex market...


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> I'm risking 50 bucks a trade dude, i can be pretty mechanical with that level of risk compared to risking 500 EUR a trade in a moulinex market...




What on earth is a moulinex market?!  Your problem is that you're using all the fancy talk but missing the basics.  I was the _*dude *_who alerted you to the fact that scaling out was not a good idea.  Now I'm saying in order to make your approach pay, you need to focus on trading psychology.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

http://alo.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/FearGreedFinMarketsClinicalStudy2005.pdf

*IV. Conclusions*

The  results  of  our  study  underscore  the  im-
portance of emotional state for real-time trading
decisions,  extending  previous  findings  in  sev-
eral significant ways. In particular, although Lo
and  Repin  (2002)  document  significant  emo-
tional  response  among  the  most  experienced
traders, our results show that extreme emotional
responses   are   apparently   counterproductive
from the perspective of trading performance.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> http://alo.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/FearGreedFinMarketsClinicalStudy2005.pdf
> 
> *IV. Conclusions*
> 
> The  results  of  our  study  underscore  the  im-
> portance of emotional state for real-time trading
> decisions,  extending  previous  findings  in  sev-
> eral significant ways. In particular, although Lo
> and  Repin  (2002)  document  significant  emo-
> tional  response  among  the  most  experienced
> traders, our results show that extreme emotional
> responses   are   apparently   counterproductive
> from the perspective of trading performance.




I'm in a Zen state, what more do i need ?

A moulinex market is the Dax or the HSI....fast, choppy, think wood chipper

I've more relaxed trading than i've ever been GB, i have lots of time for deciesions, my risk is very low, i have ample funds that i can afford to lose, i have confidence in my ability to analyse and trade, then analyse my results in my detailed journal..... 

I'm fine, really...but thanks for the concern.


----------



## CanOz

Out of the last open trade for a 30 odd pip profit. Will take this opportunity to do a restart and setup with eSignal.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> I'm in a Zen state, what more do i need ?




Nothing. Price is a squiggle on a page - we just need to know when to click 'buy' and when to click 'sell'.  Everything else is superfluous.  That's my whole point, demonstrated in a small way in my recent 'speccy' thread and highlighted in the article I posted above on DT performance vs emotional regulation.

In the paper's introduction it says:  

...in  a  pilot  study  of  10  professional
securities  traders  during  live  trading  sessions,
Lo and Repin (2002) present psychophysiolog-
ical evidence that *even the most seasoned trader
exhibits significant emotional response, as mea-
sured  by  elevated  levels  of  skin  conductance
and   cardiovascular   variables,   during   certain
transient market events such as increased price
volatility or intra-day breaks in trend.*


----------



## CanOz

My Edgewonk record is not as accurate at the moment, in the future i'll be able to put in closed trades using FXCMs report.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Nothing. Price is a squiggle on a page - we just need to know when to click 'buy' and when to click 'sell'.  Everything else is superfluous.  That's my whole point, demonstrated in a small way in my recent 'speccy' thread and highlighted in the article I posted above on DT performance vs emotional regulation.
> 
> In the paper's introduction it says:
> 
> ...in  a  pilot  study  of  10  professional
> securities  traders  during  live  trading  sessions,
> Lo and Repin (2002) present psychophysiolog-
> ical evidence that *even the most seasoned trader
> exhibits significant emotional response, as mea-
> sured  by  elevated  levels  of  skin  conductance
> and   cardiovascular   variables,   during   certain
> transient market events such as increased price
> volatility or intra-day breaks in trend.*




Thanks GB, appreciate the perspective.


----------



## CanOz

So today i got a bunch of stuff done. I updated my trade record, started my new eSignal data stream which enables me to use the FXCM platforms (ipad/Iphone incl.) for trade entry/mgt and NT for the analysis. I also am configuring my NT8 for commodities, using my CQG connection. At the moment i'm in no hurry to add commodities or indices and i just want to focus on the process of trading my plan in the FX markets. Sop after lunch we've got to get positioned for the London open...


----------



## Wysiwyg

Gringotts Bank said:


> *even the most seasoned trader
> exhibits significant emotional response, as mea-
> sured  by  elevated  levels  of  skin  conductance
> and   cardiovascular   variables,   during   certain
> transient market events such as increased price
> volatility or intra-day breaks in trend.*



Difficult to break that hard wired  stimulus/response hey.


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> started my new eSignal data stream



Hey CanOz, could you disclose what markets/exchange data you get from eSignal?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Wysiwyg said:


> Difficult to break that hard wired  stimulus/response hey.




Sure is.  More and more I realize the depth of change required to reach truly carefree state.  I'm not talking about maintaining a reasonable level of relaxation.  I'm talking about being in a flow state (described by Csikszentmihalyi and others).  I've had three striking moments in my career - twice with trading and once with a sports betting account.  The flow state would appear as a result of total letting go, and the result was absolute certainty about what was going to happen next (hard to explain unless you've experienced it). The certainty that flooded in left me in no doubt about how things work.  Trading is 100% a mind game.


----------



## CanOz

Wysiwyg said:


> Hey CanOz, could you disclose what markets/exchange data you get from eSignal?




At the moment I'm just getting fx through esignal....it's $125 USD per month. Not really happy at the moment either, as it has some strange anomalies in some of the pairs


----------



## Wysiwyg

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm talking about being in a flow state (described by Csikszentmihalyi and others).  I've had three striking moments in my career - twice with trading and once with a sports betting account.  The flow state would appear as a result of total letting go, and the result was absolute certainty about what was going to happen next (hard to explain unless you've experienced it). The certainty that flooded in left me in no doubt about how things work.  Trading is 100% a mind game.



I know what you mean. The way I can explain it is this. The processing of data [input] is more exact as evidenced in the results. Decision making is not wishy-washy. One can announce (to themselves so other organisms don't sabotage) the outcome before it happens. Like being in form with the cricket bat. The ball looks like a watermelon.


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> At the moment I'm just getting fx through esignal....it's $125 USD per month. Not really happy at the moment either, as it has some strange anomalies in some of the pairs



Kay. Thanks.


----------



## CanOz

Only one trade got triggered last night and it got stopped out almost immediately. I think in this case i put my stop much too close, so not sure what i was thinking there but i'll chalk it up to experience, Especially with a more volatile pair like the EUR/NOK. The frustrating part is that the pair has pulled back from the highs....although this seemed like a solid level the trade was counter trend.


----------



## CanOz

I'm wanting to add a play to take advantage of the London open. Here's my thinking:

The asian session, in some pairs is very light in volume and very tight in the range. When London opens the stops accumulated on either side of the 'balance' or ''range' get flushed out and away we go. 

So, to test if there is an edge here, i want to use my Open Range Breakout strategy i had coded a long time ago. I set the opening range to the Asian session, then test it using a 1:1 range to target ratio. I'll then test it on non-Asian pairs, and Asian pairs, looking mostly for win rate.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> So, to test if there is an edge here, i want to use my Open Range Breakout strategy i had coded a long time ago.




If you have the coded strategy, easier to backtest it, surely?  Trade-by-trade testing would take years to even estimate if you have an edge.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> If you have the coded strategy, easier to backtest it, surely?  Trade-by-trade testing would take years to even estimate if you have an edge.




Yeah, that's exactly what i said i wanted to do....just testing some pairs and tabling the results.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Yeah, that's exactly what i said i wanted to do....just testing some pairs and tabling the results.




The degree of fiddling around with peripheral stuff which has no bearing on anything has hit a new high.  You know full well that "tabling results" will not yield anything useful.  

Either:

*1)* buy or develop a backtestable system which you can start trading OR...
*2)* develop your confidence to the point of being able to trade using discretion.

If your chosen method doesn't return you an income after 1 month, then you've bought/developed a poor system and need to try again.  Or you listened to the wrong person when it comes to developing trading confidence, and need to try again.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> The degree of fiddling around with peripheral stuff which has no bearing on anything has hit a new high.  You know full well that "tabling results" will not yield anything useful.
> 
> Either:
> 
> *1)* buy or develop a backtestable system which you can start trading OR...
> *2)* develop your confidence to the point of being able to trade using discretion.
> 
> If your chosen method doesn't return you an income after 1 month, then you've bought/developed a poor system and need to try again.  Or you listened to the wrong person when it comes to developing trading confidence, and need to try again.




You're really clogging up my thread with your opinions, i don't find them helpful. Really annoying actually.

I would prefer to see if there is greater than 50/50 probability of the markets doing  something giving a set of circumstances before i develop a trading idea. If i already have a statistical edge, then i want to know how my desecration can may be able to improve that.

I've already mentioned that this is a new play to take advantage of the London open and the resulting surge in volume and volatility. I'm still trading my other plays, but i have time to fiddle and apparently to reply to your posts.....


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> You're really clogging up my thread with your opinions, i don't find them helpful. Really annoying actually.
> 
> I would prefer to see if there is greater than 50/50 probability of the markets doing  something giving a set of circumstances before i develop a trading idea. If i already have a statistical edge, then i want to know how my *desecration *can may be able to improve that.




Desecration...  that's quite the Freudian slip.

A 50/50 probability of markets doing something...?  You want to do this as a trade-by-trade manual process?  You understand that takes many months?  And then what... another few months of something else?  A 50-50 win rate, even if you achieve it, means nothing!  You have AB, but you're not prepared to run some simple backtests to *save you years of manual testing?*  Doesn't that strike you as odd?

My help is so annoying because I'm being realistic.  There's not a single trader in here who would confirm that your current approach is going to lead anywhere useful.  You have to give away all the pretty charts, the ridiculous level of "preparation" and get honest with yourself.

Now if my calculations are correct, that should be enough for you to put me on ignore.  Too real.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Desecration...  that's quite the Freudian slip.
> 
> A 50/50 probability of markets doing something...?  You want to do this as a trade-by-trade manual process?  You understand that takes many months?  And then what... another few months of something else?  A 50-50 win rate, even if you achieve it, means nothing!  You have AB, but you're not prepared to run some simple backtests to *save you years of manual testing?*  Doesn't that strike you as odd?
> 
> My help is so annoying because I'm being realistic.  There's not a single trader in here who would confirm that your current approach is going to lead anywhere useful.  You have to give away all the pretty charts, the ridiculous level of "preparation" and get honest with yourself.
> 
> Now if my calculations are correct, that should be enough for you to put me on ignore.  Too real.







> Desecration... that's quite the Freudian slip.




Literally a fat finger on the spell check mate....

I already have an algorithm coded mate. I have been running back tests all morning with different filter settings, different sessions and different hold times..... Why are you thinking that i'm testing manually?


----------



## CanOz

Funny how i said this:


> So, to test if there is an edge here, i want to use my Open Range Breakout strategy i had coded a long time ago.




And yet you still assume this:



> The degree of fiddling around with peripheral stuff which has no bearing on anything has hit a new high. You know full well that "tabling results" will not yield anything useful.






> You want to do this as a trade-by-trade manual process? You understand that takes many months? And then what... another few months of something else? A 50-50 win rate, even if you achieve it, means nothing! You have AB, but you're not prepared to run some simple backtests to save you years of manual testing? Doesn't that strike you as odd?




How on earth did you put 1+1 and get 3?


----------



## CanOz

These are the test results on three pairs.

First i tested the strategy of taking a position on the break of the Asian session range, putting a stop at 1 x the range and a take profit at 1x the range 1:1 R/R

I also tested exiting at the close and exiting at the target. I also have a narrow range day filter as a condition that tested as well. So looking for a narrow ranging day to setup on. 

Then i tested the same strategy but this time i combined both the Asian and the London ranges. Then tested to the close and to the target, filter on and filter off.

The GBPUSD tends to be much more likely to trade to its target after taking out the range, regardless of the filter. 

The EURUSD is more likely to trade to its target after taking out the combined range as well, filter doesn't have any improvement.

The EURGBP is still pretty much a coin toss.

An edge can be defined as something that occurs more than random. We are only taking profit at 1 x risk. The GBPUSD with the combined range strategy may have potential to develop into a full strategy.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

You used the word "tabling results" rather than "backtesting".  Alright good.  So you want to optimize with a optimization target of 'win%', yes?  That's good too, but you need to make sure the win rate holds up with walk forward testing because high win rates are easy to generate and easy to curve fit to data.  Profitability should be at least 'break even' if you're going to use this approach.  Does it pass both these tests?

If it does, what methods are you going to use to optimize your discretionary decision making so that you choose more of the right trades than the wrong ones?

For someone who trades a combined system+discretion, the less profitable the backtest, the better your discretion has to be.  Also, try to avoid getting a high win% at the expense of having a few massive losers, unless your discretion is super tuned in to the market.  One slip up and you can do massive damage.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> You used the word "tabling results" rather than "backtesting".  Alright good.  So you want to optimize with a optimization target of 'win%', yes?  That's good too, but you need to make sure the win rate holds up with walk forward testing because high win rates are easy to generate and easy to curve fit to data.  Profitability should be at least 'break even' if you're going to use this approach.  Does it pass both these tests?
> 
> If it does, what methods are you going to use to optimize your discretionary decision making so that you choose more of the right trades than the wrong ones?




After all that, i don't even get an apology?

I plan on do some manual statistics on the successful trades, since there are not many of them. I'm going to look for a set of conditions that will involve hourly volatility and daily range of the setup session and the session before.

I can also do some (Back)tests on the most successful pair by tightening up the stop and going for larget targets. Obviously the win rate will drop, but the wins should get larger. This would indicate that i may be able to use a trailing stop.

Would you like to suggest anything else?


----------



## CanOz

I have tested the GBPUSD pair with a target of three times the range and a stop of 1x the range -20 ticks (inside the range). The win rate has dropped to 48%, but the average win to average loser is 3.21 times now. 

This is a profitable strategy in its own right. There is a caveat or two though. The risk is the average hold time is now longer than 5 days, so its holding over the weekend in many cases. Also, there are no commissions, but ample profit to cover. There are only 25 trades for a whole year, yet it is not being filtered, the system is not taking new trades while in a trade.


----------



## CanOz

The results i'm getting on other pairs are very encouraging. Even without looking at any other conditions, all the equity curves are very positive. Some of the trends that it has caught are so long that it only has taken a few trades a year. I guess this is in part to having only an initial stop and a 3 x take profit. This is the auto trader dilemma, stops hurt performance, what kind of a trailing stop can one use to capture eve ngreater reward without getting stopped out too early? 

I'm going to run a portfolio level back test. Then perhaps some small portfolio backtests but using OOS data.

I think i may have crashed NT7....


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> After all that, i don't even get an apology?
> 
> I plan on do some manual statistics on the successful trades, since there are not many of them. I'm going to look for a set of conditions that will involve hourly volatility and daily range of the setup session and the session before.
> 
> I can also do some (Back)tests on the most successful pair by tightening up the stop and going for larget targets. Obviously the win rate will drop, but the wins should get larger. This would indicate that i may be able to use a trailing stop.
> 
> Would you like to suggest anything else?




1) not many trades + 2) optimization = curve fitting.  How many years of data are you backtesting on with an hourly time frame?

Curve fitting is ok, so long as it walks forward on unseen data, otherwise it's not a real edge.

Since you are overlaying a discretionary component, what method are you using to maximize the quality of your decision making?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> 1) not many trades + 2) optimization = curve fitting.  How many years of data are you backtesting on with an hourly time frame?
> 
> Curve fitting is ok, so long as it walks forward on unseen data, otherwise it's not a real edge.
> 
> Since you are overlaying a discretionary component, what method are you using to maximize the quality of your decision making?




LOL I would say shut up, but to be honest I'm enjoying it too much, it's a cross between a face palm and this...




All the best Can, dunno how you put up with it


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> 1) not many trades + 2) optimization = curve fitting.  How many years of data are you backtesting on with an hourly time frame?
> 
> Curve fitting is ok, so long as it walks forward on unseen data, otherwise it's not a real edge.
> 
> Since you are overlaying a discretionary component, what method are you using to maximize the quality of your decision making?




Clean out your inbox, I'm trying to reply to your attempt at abusive PM's  Nice job on calling me a c-bomb before it got deleted too, classy


----------



## Joe Blow

Let's get this thread back on topic please. It's an interesting thread on an interesting topic. There's no need to provoke, insult or attack others.


----------



## fiftyeight

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Clean out your inbox, I'm trying to reply to your attempt at abusive PM's  Nice job on calling me a c-bomb before it got deleted too, classy




Haha

When I was a super fresh newb, I had not opened a book and had been on ASF for maybe a week I was lucky enough to be on the receiving end of some GB hate mail 

Entertaining yes, educational no. Optimisation = Curve fitting  Really, no way!!!!

CanOz on the other hand has provided some great material in this thread as always :xyxthumb:

Who knows, maybe this thread will inspire TH to come back to ASF


----------



## cynic

Just thought I'd stick my head in to remind everyone that there already exist some great banter threads that could make good use of some animated input!


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> I can also do some (Back)tests on the most successful pair by tightening up the stop and going for larget targets. Obviously the win rate will drop, but the wins should get larger. This would indicate that i may be able to use a trailing stop.
> 
> Would you like to suggest anything else?




Re: setting stops.

One of the most important lesson I've learned about posting on ASF is to have a stop. I have a 3-post stop loss. If I spent 3 posts on something / to someone and it's not heading in the direction that I like... I execute my stop. 

Let the other person win. Accept that his belief of what you are doing will no be changed, and his desire to analyse every little thing you do psychologically on incomplete/wrong information will not waver... regardless of how much you argue your case.

Your stop has been way to wide. 

Execute the stop now.

P.S. It will also improve your trading!


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Re: setting stops.
> 
> One of the most important lesson I've learned about posting on ASF is to have a stop. I have a 3-post stop loss. If I spent 3 posts on something / to someone and it's not heading in the direction that I like... I execute my stop.
> 
> Let the other person win. Accept that his belief of what you are doing will no be changed, and his desire to analyse every little thing you do psychologically on incomplete/wrong information will not waver... regardless of how much you argue your case.
> 
> Your stop has been way to wide.
> 
> Execute the stop now.
> 
> P.S. It will also improve your trading!




As usual SKC, great Advice...I shall execute the initial stop....


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> As usual SKC, great Advice...I shall execute the initial stop....




It was bad advice in this case.  

Firstly, every bit of my input to this thread was high quality.  Go back through it without the 'I don't like GB' filter and see what you missed.

Secondly, my provocative and relentless approach had a design.  Since you'd decided to trade using a discretionary approach, I needed to know how you'd respond to repeated harsh feedback (simulating trading losses).  Woud anyone else even _think _of doing this?

So here's what I found:  you responded with mild annoyance, then head-in-sand (denial) and then you just sat back and waited for others to rush in and 'save' you.  Since people are consistent, this is most likely how you will carry out your trading.  Only the first response was useful because it was *real*; everything after that was... well, you know.  You're attempting to *block* negatives, and that will force your mind to *seek out* negatives in the form of trading losses.  

This is where you say "thanks for your concern " in a dismissive manner.  

Anyway I'm done.  The 'thumbs up buddy!' posters are not going to know what to do if your account slowly dwindles over the course of years.  I was attempting to help you avoid that possibility and instead, profit.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> It was bad advice in this case.
> 
> Firstly, every bit of my input to this thread was high quality.  Go back through it without the 'I don't like GB' filter and see what you missed.
> 
> Secondly, my provocative and relentless approach had a design.  Since you'd decided to trade using a discretionary approach, I needed to know how you'd respond to repeated harsh feedback (simulating trading losses).  Woud anyone else even _think _of doing this?
> 
> So here's what I found:  you responded with mild annoyance, then head-in-sand (denial) and then you just sat back and waited for others to rush in and 'save' you.  Since people are consistent, this is most likely how you will carry out your trading.  Only the first response was useful because it was *real*; everything after that was... well, you know.  You're attempting to *block* negatives, and that will force your mind to *seek out* negatives in the form of trading losses.
> 
> This is where you say "thanks for your concern " in a dismissive manner.
> 
> Anyway I'm done.  The 'thumbs up buddy!' posters are not going to know what to do if your account slowly dwindles over the course of years.  I was attempting to help you avoid that possibility and instead, profit.




You really are a piece of work aren't you. 

Actually I responded to you with patience, because I posted on a public forum. 

GB, I have not seen a single real equity curve or live trade posted by yourself. What credibility do you think I should afford you? I have been polite, even in the face of your seemingly blatant disregard for my posts and your wish to push whatever you believe and value onto me. So, in keeping with my options, you're added to my list of people to ignore. The other choice is to abandon the thread.....which I may do after my 100 trades. Goodbye GB!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Sorry Canoz.  I went about things in the wrong way, that's for sure.  

The rest of this refers to me.  For someone who was stressing the importance of only doing 'what works', my advice didn't actually end up working for you.  So when I read back through the thread, that glaring fact stood out to me.  It's not that I don't know _how _to help, but I went ahead and did something that I knew was going to end up in a bun fight.  No matter what aspect of life one considers, advice is never really helpful, especially when delivered with a superior/offensive tone.  It doesn't matter if the advice is logical, perfectly pitched, word-perfect or insightful - advice just isn't the way to help people, and deep down I knew that.  But I went ahead...

The question I had to ask myself is: So _why _did I go ahead?  And that's where I had to admit to myself an underlying motive - a mistrust and annoyance at you for repeatedly questioning and dismissing various content I've posted whilst being a member here.  So the problem is in fact not yours, but mine.  

Not to be too serious about all this, it's only an online tiff - one of thousands happening around the globe, no doubt.  But it's good to set things straight.  Also, I want to demonstrate that I do walk the talk and that I'm capable of shining the spotlight squarely and honestly at myself, understanding *my *responsibility and forget about any/everyone else.  With trading it's a bit different, but it's the honesty and directness which are the crucial components.  That's where I've seen growth which has helped profitability.

I wish you'd said "I don't need any advice thanks" at the start of the thread!  Not only would it have saved me some time, but it's probably true too.

Some might say 'why write a big apology??  Just get on with it!'.  I find it useful for myself.  Selfish motive, aimed at personal growth and with the aim of not repeating mistakes.


----------



## CanOz

So we've had a bit of a bad run and looking through my journal its mainly from over trading, shoe-horning trades fit my playbook....when in actual fact they were poor setups. 

I'm cutting the pairs down from 27 to 18 as its clear to me i have too many to watch and too many that are correlated anyway.

Still have more testing to do on my new combined session breakout play. Also there's merit in looking at a combined session breakout failure play where if the breakout fails a trade is taken as the opposite of the range fails. I have enough options on the breakout system to test this as well. My balance in the account had fallen below 5k to 4953.91 so we'll be using 4900 for the risk calculation.


----------



## CanOz

A quick update, its been a frustrating week on my FX account, i'm in drawdown with allot of back to back losers and the winners just haven't met any decent R/R targets. 

Today i lost all the data on my journal, as well as another file i had in Excel. For some reason it prompted me to open comma delimited. I tried to rename the file and lost the whole workbook. It turns out there is a video in the manual about opening the Edgewonk work book. I've not had this problem before, i don't know what i did wrong, but its extremely frustrating to lose a whole journal. I am really keen to use the power of this data base, but if they make it so complicated that you need a PHd to operate it, whats the point...

So i'll keep the trades I've got pending today, but next week will be spent rebuilding the journal.


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> Today i lost all the data on my journal, as well as another file i had in Excel. For some reason it prompted me to open comma delimited. I tried to rename the file and lost the whole workbook. It turns out there is a video in the manual about opening the Edgewonk work book. I've not had this problem before, i don't know what i did wrong, but its extremely frustrating to lose a whole journal. I am really keen to use the power of this data base, but if they make it so complicated that you need a PHd to operate it, whats the point...



Ahh, I sympathise. I've never lost a whole journal - but once or twice ive lost a days worth of stuff and had to revert back to my backup...even that is enough to make me


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> Ahh, I sympathise. I've never lost a whole journal - but once or twice ive lost a days worth of stuff and had to revert back to my backup...even that is enough to make me




I was furious, i smashed my laptop screen in the process:frown:


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> I was furious, i smashed my laptop screen in the process:frown:




Tried to embed THIS. But it was too large. lol.


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> Tried to embed THIS. But it was too large. lol.




Like this?


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> I'm cutting the pairs down from 27 to 18 as its clear to me i have too many to watch and too many that are correlated anyway




Probably stating the obvious here but make suer you don't introduce survivorship bias when you reduce your pairs. With only 100 trades until review removing just your worst pairs may seriously skew the results


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Probably stating the obvious here but make suer you don't introduce survivorship bias when you reduce your pairs. With only 100 trades until review removing just your worst pairs may seriously skew the results



 Yeah I didn't have many trades with the more illiquid pairs anyway...


----------



## CanOz

A bit of an update, i'm still trading my currency plan, still rebuilding my journal. I went into a 5% drawdown and have since recovered some of it, still down though. Only have one open position and i'll wind that up before NFP tomorrow night. Next week i should be able open more positions as some pairs present better opportunities and we'll have the first of the month out of the way. 

Since i now have long term HKFE data from NT i'm putting together a trading plan for the HHI. I like the HHI because it has less volatility than the HSI, thicker depth. Actually its much like a cheaper version of the FTSE for price, volatility, and tick value at 9 AUD. I need to do some screen time with this market before i trade live though, as i'm a little out of practice and I've not really ever just focused on this market.  I only have 3-4 solid plays to try for the HHI. So i don't think it will setup every day, but i think a few days a week initially. A solid play is something that i believe through screen time or testing that will work more often than not at my risk levels.

I hope to have a trade update on the currency trading tomorrow, number of trades/wins/losses etc.


----------



## CanOz

Nice 'powder keg' setting up on the HHI. Looking for a push up to 8664, however we have a line in the sand at 8408 where we would look for a return to 8200 as an alternate scenario. We may consolidate further and i'm not looking for trade in the 8460-8505 zone as i would expect some choppy trading there unless there is news...


----------



## CanOz

Ok, i was able to export my trade data from FXCM and do my stats. 

Here's my Equity curve for May. Pretty dismal.

Wins     14 | W% 33 | Avg. Win $33.02
Losses   28 | L%  66 | Avg. Loss 24.87

To engineer the turn in the equity curve i have been taking fewer trades during the Asian session, using a trend filter to try and stick with the main larger time frame trends, using a wider stop, but less trade risk (.75%). Peak to trough drawdown was 10.7%


----------



## CanOz

One other thing, i think i tend to try and hang on too long to these FX trades. I'm going to start and take some profits where significant obstacles are coinciding with 2 and 3r. It seems with FX it is best to take the profit and get in again later. It always seems to swing back for another opportunity. like they're constantly shaking weak hands out.


----------



## Jason Rogers

CanOz said:


> Ok, i was able to export my trade data from FXCM and do my stats.
> 
> Here's my Equity curve for May. Pretty dismal.
> 
> Wins     14 | W% 33 | Avg. Win $33.02
> Losses   28 | L%  66 | Avg. Loss 24.87
> 
> To engineer the turn in the equity curve i have been taking fewer trades during the Asian session, using a trend filter to try and stick with the main larger time frame trends, using a wider stop, but less trade risk (.75%). Peak to trough drawdown was 10.7%




Hi CanOz,

It seems you are quite proficient at making your own equity curve graphs using the data exported from your trading account. That said, you may be interested in our free Trading Analytics site. You can access it with your FXCM account login details: https://taweb.fxcorporate.com/


​


----------



## CanOz

Jason Rogers said:


> Hi CanOz,
> 
> It seems you are quite proficient at making your own equity curve graphs using the data exported from your trading account. That said, you may be interested in our free Trading Analytics site. You can access it with your FXCM account login details: https://taweb.fxcorporate.com/





lol....

Thats really great, thanks Jason....i feel rather silly for not asking before.


----------



## VSntchr

Jason Rogers said:


> Hi CanOz,
> 
> It seems you are quite proficient at making your own equity curve graphs using the data exported from your trading account. That said, you may be interested in our free Trading Analytics site. You can access it with your FXCM account login details: https://taweb.fxcorporate.com/




This is really great stuff - wish my equities/cfd broker offered this!


----------



## Jason Rogers

CanOz said:


> lol....
> 
> Thats really great, thanks Jason....i feel rather silly for not asking before.




Don't be too hard on yourself. I've worked at FXCM almost 12 years and am still learning about all the solutions we offer for our clients. 

However, I know whom to ask in our various departments, so please don't hesitate to reach out to me if you're curious whether we offer something. You can contact me via private message or post a question in our main discussion thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14878&goto=newpost


----------



## CanOz

Back working on my FX system after a break. The recent volatility is certainly helping...expecting some chop today waiting for NFP, perhaps some small range trades.


----------



## CanOz

Good result for the week, my first week back trading this after a break to do a round of health checks and take some opportunity to code up my strategy, test it in the raw form and then start trading the signals with a discretionary filter. Had some help from an ASF member on this too, he's been a great help to me in understanding volatility. I won't mention any names but he knows who he is...

The rest of this week is a bit of a write off, i have an exploratory medical procedure tomorrow afternoon which might leave me a little rough around the edges...In the meantime I've got more code coming back from my Upwork coder that will include some minor additions to help remove some discretion. I don't plan to completely automate this as it still requires channels or patterns as a final piece before the trades are taken. 

Generally though this system uses standard deviations, volatility,  and market structure.


----------



## CanOz

Today i've been testing this FX system on commodities and indices. It works well on the ES but works outstanding on CL....


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## Roller_1

Looks good. What sort of position sizing do you use on single markets?


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## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> Looks good. What sort of position sizing do you use on single markets?




Hi Roller!

Testing is only based on a single contract. I would like to try dynamic sizing according to volatility one day, so thoughts on this are certainly welcome!


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## Roller_1

CanOz said:


> Hi Roller!
> 
> Testing is only based on a single contract. I would like to try dynamic sizing according to volatility one day, so thoughts on this are certainly welcome!




I'm not really up to speed with futures, FX etc just stocks i trade. 

So do you use your whole account on 1 position??


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## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> I'm not really up to speed with futures, FX etc just stocks i trade.
> 
> So do you use your whole account on 1 position??




No, generally from.5% to.1% but always less than 2%


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## Roller_1

CanOz said:


> No, generally from.5% to.1% but always less than 2%




Yeah sorry so your total risk is less than <2%? or total sze of the position?


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## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> Yeah sorry so your total risk is less than <2%? or total sze of the position?





Trade risk is less than 2%

I won't get more than 5 positions on at one time per account, so portfolio heat is pretty low.


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## Roller_1

CanOz said:


> Trade risk is less than 2%
> 
> I won't get more than 5 positions on at one time per account, so portfolio heat is pretty low.




Yep got ya.. 

Do you trade the FX market during our day time hours, is there enough volatility? I have been thinking about diversifying into FX or futures but it's not practical or i have no intention of sitting up all night. I am bored now i have my EOD MR system chugging away nicely.


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## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> Yep got ya..
> 
> Do you trade the FX market during our day time hours, is there enough volatility? I have been thinking about diversifying into FX or futures but it's not practical or i have no intention of sitting up all night. I am bored now i have my EOD MR system chugging away nicely.




Yeah, there is a few moves in the morning before things get going again around 3 or 4 pm.


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## Roller_1

CanOz said:


> Yeah, there is a few moves in the morning before things get going again around 3 or 4 pm.




ok, might be worth investigating


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## ukulele

If you are looking for volatility there are moves when there are aussie announcements like todays employment figs at 1130. 

other announcements that often move markets include aussie cpi and trade balance data both 1130am eastern. Of course the first tuesday of the month there is the rba rate decision at 230pm.

Also NZ announcements are in the morning 7xx or 8xx. They can and have moved markets significantly.


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## CanOz

ukulele said:


> If you are looking for volatility there are moves when there are aussie announcements like todays employment figs at 1130.
> 
> other announcements that often move markets include aussie cpi and trade balance data both 1130am eastern. Of course the first tuesday of the month there is the rba rate decision at 230pm.
> 
> Also NZ announcements are in the morning 7xx or 8xx. They can and have moved markets significantly.




And a bit of jawboning now and again. It's a great time to be trading fx, lots of themes....negative rates and positive carrys, ex Brexit, Greece, Italy, DB....fed dovish / hawkish...on and on. This makes for some great short term trends.


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## CanOz

A bit of an update:

I've had a good run and the best trades have been ones that have been enter after the EU session opens. SO for the foreseeable future i'll focus on research in the morning and then after lunch i'll put together some trade ideas for the EU/US session.


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## fiftyeight

Back to Europe session, dragged you back in.

Good to see you are making progress with it


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## CanOz

Not many trades last week, i was busy working on systems. Not a bad finish for July.


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