# Economists sound recession warning



## MrBurns (9 December 2008)

From the ABC - weren't we told only a few days ago that we wouldn't go into recession ? Now it's a "moderate" recession.

Then there's Rudd saying spend, spend, spend, don't save , nice message to our kids from the Prime Minister.

Would be better if all these fools would just shut up.



> Economists have declared the non-farm economy is heading into recession after a National Australia Bank (NAB) monthly survey found business confidence is at a record low.
> 
> The NAB index dropped one point in November to a new low of negative-30 as forward orders fell to 1991 levels.
> 
> ...


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## Nyden (9 December 2008)

Personally, I don't see any possible way that we can avoid one. Moderate? Nonsense - I still believe that Australia is in one of the worst positions here, because of our reliance on imports for ourselves, and our dependence on our commodity exports for our economy!

I just don't understand how these sorts of people *cannot* (or rather, refuse to say) see how it hasn't even really begun yet here, and how it will. Folk are only just starting to really lose their jobs, house prices are finally budging down, and people are afraid. If unemployment soars, and people cannot service their mortgage loans - they default, declare bankruptcy, whatever. The banks therefore have less customers, less profits, and retrench more employees. This same basic principal applies to all sectors! How can the economists, and the politicians ignore this? Perhaps they do know it though - and are just refusing to say as to not instill more fear. Bush didn't admit to a recession after all


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## AlterEgo (9 December 2008)

MrBurns said:


> From the ABC - weren't we told only a few days ago that we wouldn't go into recession ?.




Wishful thinking.



MrBurns said:


> Then there's Rudd saying spend, spend, spend, don't save , nice message to our kids from the Prime Minister.
> 
> Would be better if all these fools would just shut up.




Agree. I think that's very irresponsible of him to be saying things like that. Wasn't it the high levels of debt that caused this mess in the first place? Now we're being encouraged to take on even higher levels of debt to try to dig our way out of this hole. Well I'm afraid that may just result in us digging an even deeper hole for ourselves.


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## Julia (9 December 2008)

AlterEgo said:


> Wishful thinking.
> 
> 
> 
> Agree. I think that's very irresponsible of him to be saying things like that. Wasn't it the high levels of debt that caused this mess in the first place? Now we're being encouraged to take on even higher levels of debt to try to dig our way out of this hole. Well I'm afraid that may just result in us digging an even deeper hole for ourselves.



I completely agree.  
And whilst I understand the wish for politicians to generate a quick spike in the economy the message to just spend, spend, spend - doesn't matter on what, waste it if you like - is hardly a philosophy to send a sound message to the population who seem to need little enough encouragement in this direction already.


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## dan-o (9 December 2008)

This recession is gonna be nasty-

“House prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are plunging, and the global economy may grind almost to a halt next year because of it. Construction of homes, offices and factories fell at least 16.6% in October after rising 32.5% a year earlier … Building is the biggest driver of China's expansion, contributing a quarter of fixed-asset investment and employing 77 million people … ‘China is now at the heart of the global slowdown’, said Jim Walker, chief economist at Asianomics, an economic advisory firm in Hong Kong. ‘It means that global growth is probably going to be dragged down close to zero next year.’ Walker, voted best regional economist in an Asiamoney magazine brokers' poll for 11 years through 2004 when he worked for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, estimates China will grow 0–4% next year, with a 30% chance of a contraction … ‘If real estate contracts by 30% it doesn't matter how much the government spends on infrastructure, the economy is still going to be very weak,’ said Paul Cavey, a Hong Kong-based economist at Macquarie, who forecasts a 6.6% expansion next year. ‘Property is the epicentre of economic weakness’.” (Bloomberg, December 2) 

It's not looking good...


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## MrBurns (9 December 2008)

The clear message is "don't listen to the PM" which isn't good, the mixed messages we're getting are really becoming annoying. I understand they don't want to mention "recession" but perhaps they should, it's the only cure for this problem.
I really get the feeling the public are being treated like idiots.


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## prawn_86 (9 December 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I really get the feeling the public are being treated like idiots.




I would argue that the general populous are idiots when it comes to financial matters...


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## Bushman (9 December 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Would be better if all these fools would just shut up.




Most sensible thing anyone has said about this debacle yet. 

Its all just sound bytes to meet different agendas.


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## MrBurns (9 December 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> I would argue that the general populous are idiots when it comes to financial matters...




Thats true, but to be told one day by just about everyone that there wont be a recession then a few days later it's announced is a bit too much.

I agree the average citizen wouldn't know if a tram was up them till the bell rang, people need to be _handled_ I guess, just look at TV advertising to prove that, those bog awful ads actually WORK that gives you an idea of the general publics mentality.


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## Glen48 (9 December 2008)

Now I heard un-employment could  be higher than the Feds tell us...I think if you work 2 hr a week you as classed as employed I can't recall any jobs were you can work for those hours?
USA sa getting worse and in free fall.


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## numbercruncher (9 December 2008)

Australian unemployment rates are a big shonk ...... and poised to skyrocket ...



> Australian Bureau of Statistics figures underestimate unemployment rate
> 
> The World Today - Tuesday, 9 December , 2008 12:10:00
> Reporter: Richard Lindell
> ...




http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2441532.htm


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## MrBurns (9 December 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Australian unemployment rates are a big shonk ...... and poised to skyrocket ...
> http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2441532.htm




No doubt about it, shonk is the right description.

On a side note I'm starting to feel for those being discarded in this climate, what are they supposed to do to feed themselves and their families.

The Govt should have a "summit" on that one and serve homebrand cordial and broken biscuits instead of expensive wine and food.


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## shaunQ (9 December 2008)

MrBurns said:


> No doubt about it, shonk is the right description.




Apparently the US employment rate is no better, currently at 6% it is more like 11%.

In your normal bi-partisan approach Burns, don't forget Turnball and his moronic stance on everything. The bank Guarentee's to low!, guarentee is to high!, give to the Pensioners! - stop giving!, tax cuts are needed... blah blah


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## dhukka (9 December 2008)

This is actually not news. Governments in all developed countries have been fiddling with the way they calculate a lot of economic numbers for decades. On unemployment they have continually narrowed down the definition with the result that it looks lower than it otherwise would have been using previous periods methods. 

That's why when you hear comparisons of the US unemployment rate of *6.7%* being nowhere near as bad as the early 1980's recession, when it reached nearly *11%*, it's like comparing apples and oranges. The changes the US government made to calculating CPI is bordering on criminal. For more on the US, check out shadow government statistics.


The broad definition used by Roy Morgan Research is actually calculated in the US. It is shown in the Bureau of Labor Statisticas report table A-12 and is called *U6*, *U3* is what is reported. Note that *U6* jumped to *12.5%* in November.  

As the article points out the recent decision to cut the sample size makes the report even more unreliable. Look at any of the AIG Performance of Manufacturing and Performance of Services monthly reports, they show that employment has been contracting for at least 6 months.


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## numbercruncher (9 December 2008)

> This is actually not news





If the masses are unaware of it , surely its news ?


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## MrBurns (9 December 2008)

shaunQ said:


> Apparently the US employment rate is no better, currently at 6% it is more like 11%.
> 
> In your normal bi-partisan approach Burns, don't forget Turnball and his moronic stance on everything. The bank Guarentee's to low!, guarentee is to high!, give to the Pensioners! - stop giving!, tax cuts are needed... blah blah




True enough but he's not in the drivers seat, Rudd is.


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## dhukka (9 December 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> If the masses are unaware of it , surely its news ?




just to be clear I was referring to the article quoted by nubercruncher. As for the recession, I would say the Australian economy probably went into recession somewhere between the end of September and November.


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## MrBurns (9 December 2008)

When Paul Keating said "this is the recession we had to have" he was right wasn't he.

As Peter Schiff says , the only way out of the toxic mess is a recession, ,thats the medicine required to cure the disease.

Except in this case the medicine will be very nasty as the disease is much worse than we've had before, much worse.


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## Glen48 (9 December 2008)

Sounds like I should write myself a poison pen letter and then eat it....but then again only 4 more yrs to go and it will be over......no doubt crime pays anyone locked up now are on a winner.


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## Smurf1976 (9 December 2008)

It's a done deal in my opinion. Is there anyone you've met recently who thinks the economy is getting better? Didn't think so... And all this negativitiy will in itself ensure we end up in recession (though it is not the ultimate cause of it).


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## Trembling Hand (9 December 2008)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's a done deal in my opinion. Is there anyone you've met recently who thinks the economy is getting better?




Yeah, people that are hanging onto things like FMG, OZL, ANZ from $30 etc.

but then again denial is one of the first emotions when grieving!!


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## joeyr46 (9 December 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> I would argue that the general populous are idiots when it comes to financial matters...




I would also argue so are the "experts" and the're even proving it with their actions . Giving money away so we can spend it how long is that going to last


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## prawn_86 (9 December 2008)

joeyr46 said:


> I would also argue so are the "experts" and the're even proving it with their actions . Giving money away so we can spend it how long is that going to last




Yep i would agree with that.

There is a certain demographic (ASF users  ) who are obviously financially superior and will soon rule the world


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## MS+Tradesim (9 December 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> There is a certain demographic (ASF users  ) who are obviously financially superior and will soon rule the world




Shhh! It's too soon to blow our cover. :nunchux:


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## GumbyLearner (9 December 2008)

No need for warning its already here!

http://www.pacificshipper.com/news/article.asp?sid=32998&ltype=feature

:santa:


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## Julia (9 December 2008)

Professor Ian Harper, remember him ?- The Christian bloke in charge of the Fair Pay Commission, who was also involved in the Wallis Report which apparently recommended changes (read deregulation) to the financial system - was this evening interviewed on ABC Radio's "PM".

In answer to questioning, he admitted that, umm, no, his vision for a successful financial overhaul really hadn't, umm, in practice been 100% successful.  (Prof Harper is clearly a master of the understatement.)

He seemed to think, however, that he might know where the theory had, umm, gone wrong and caused markets to "behave irrationally".

Because of his now apparent great insight the implication was that he should be the bloke to re-evaluate the current situation and make recommendations as to what changes should be made for the future.

Does anyone else have less than full confidence in Professor Harper's capacity to get it right the next time?


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## Happy (10 December 2008)

Nyden said:


> Perhaps they do know it though - and are just refusing to say as to not instill more fear. Bush didn't admit to a recession after all




In one of ABC messages I saw statement that Kev asked everybody under his wing to talk up the economy, same as they were told to talk it down immediately after receiving mandate to govern.

Some reckon that if you say something often enough you start to believe it and act as if


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## gfresh (10 December 2008)

Good article comparing another rich resource nation, Canada, to Australia.. 

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...Canada-$pd20081210-M6R4J?OpenDocument&src=sph

Odds for recession here are 90%... 40%, pft


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## noirua (6 July 2022)

Euro Low, Recession Fears, Citi Warns on Oil - What's Moving Markets By Investing.com
					

Euro Low, Recession Fears, Citi Warns on Oil - What's Moving Markets




					www.investing.com
				




AUD falls away, gold price drops, gold shares plunge again and silver shares trashed. FTSE 100 and DOW 40 fall heavily.


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 July 2022)

noirua said:


> Euro Low, Recession Fears, Citi Warns on Oil - What's Moving Markets By Investing.com
> 
> 
> Euro Low, Recession Fears, Citi Warns on Oil - What's Moving Markets
> ...



Such is Life : Edward "Ned" Kelly.

gg


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