# MSB - Mesoblast Limited



## $unny

I think its the way of the future. Bought some at 0.56, now its doing good. What do u all think, alot of good announcements... have a good read. www.mesoblast.com.au


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## vince

*msb  mesoblast, catalyst thur. 8 pm  abc*

Hi ,be sure to watch Catalyst this thur, at 8pm on abc there is a feature on msb with an interview between the md and a stem cell  reciepent, this will be followed on friday by the transcript announced to the asx .msb has gained over 10% this week ,so the news appears to be positive. cheers  vince


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## $unny

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

at trading holt 
raised 15 million, share holders can buy 5k at 130 or 125
AMAZING RESULTS as predicted, it will b off holt as off today
well lets hope the market takes this in a good way

we want more ca$h


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## chewy

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

In trading halt - 

"The Directors of Mesoblast Limited expect shortly to make a significant announcement, which the Company is not in a position to release at present."

Sounds promissing


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## Dukey

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Just heard of this mob the other day.sounds interesting.

chewy - any ideas what the announcement could be about? ie. what have they been up to lately?

PS - I just want a new disc really...


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## chewy

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Yeah really don't know - perhaps some promissing results from the stage 2 tests that are currently underway, perhaps someone making a big investment in them, perhaps a takeover offer from a big med??

purely speculating - but they do say a "significant announcement". should know within the next few days.


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

This company   is clear  of  of opes prime dealings now  and has one of its many  products on its radar  to commercialise.............Mesoblast’s record of accomplishment since its ASX listing in December 2004 has been first rate. Within only 3.5 years, the Company has
established itself as a world leader in the development of innovative biological products in the emerging and potentially highly lucrative
regenerative medicine field.
Our adult stem cell platform has shown real and substantial commercial applicability for the global orthopaedic industry. We are targeting a wide
range of bone, cartilage and musculoskeletal conditions, and aim to bring at least three products to market in the near-term for these diseases.............We  are  talking  billion  dollar  markets here, and I am  led to  believe  that  negotations with  Asian  countrys is forthcoming  soon  ...Cheers ...... ps. up  12 cents today  atm....


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Since listing  just over 3 years ago  MSB has never missed a milestone  in  fact   it has been  early  in  most  including   all FDA trials , This is a real  credit  to  the  board of  MSB .....  On listing    the founder proffessor Silviu Itescu stated MSB,s applications could  become one of Australias great exports  .. He  certainly  knows his business  he is  hands on,  and a few  years ago  was chief  adviser to  the u.s president  on  stem cell matters , and sat  on  the FDA advisary  board  ......Cheers


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Well  we  have moved up  about  30%  for  the  week  hope  some  are  getting  on  board,   with rises  of up to 12c  day,  dont  think  this s/p  upward trend is stopping  soon, as  with all 5-6 applications in various  stages of  trials and all trials proving  successful   ww  commercial markets are  worth billions ..My  belief  is  that   MSB products are  being showcased in Asian  countries right  now,  watch  this  space ...Cheers


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## chewy

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Definitely copped it hard during the market-wide drop and then Opes Prime. Good to see it come back. I reckon this company has amazing potential. Their tests are always successful and some are pretty advanced now.


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Good to  see you aboard Chewy  .. what I do in a situation  like this  is  buy small parcels as the stock  ascends,  trailing a stop  of  around  -10  cents...  Also   anything  you  read  about  Adult  stem cell  You can  be  sure  MSB  has done  10  years  plus and  is  right  down  the  track  with  its  FDA  liabilities ..here is an example  in todays  news  of a wannabee........................Parkinson's cure 'in the nose'By Petrina Berry
June 06, 2008 12:29pm
Article from: AAPFont size: + -
Send this article: Print Email 
RESEARCHERS say a cure for Parkinson's disease could lie inside the nose of patients.

The Griffith University study found that adult stem cells harvested from the noses of Parkinson's patients gave rise to dopamine-producing brain cells when transplanted into the brain of a rat. 

Current drug therapies can replace dopamine in the brain, but these often become less effective after prolonged use. 

Director of the university's National Adult Stem Cell Research Centre, Alan Mackay-Sim, said researchers simulated Parkinson's symptoms in rats by creating lesions on one side of the brain similar to the damage caused in human brains. 

"The lesions to one side of the brain made the rats run in circles," Professor Mackay-Sim said. 

"When stem cells from the nose of Parkinson's patients were cultured and injected into the damaged area the rats re-acquired the ability to run in a straight line. 

"All animals transplanted with the human cells had a dramatic reduction in the rate of rotation within just three weeks."

He said the discovery meant they were on the verge to finding a cure for Parkinson's, a debilitating disease which includes loss of muscle control caused by the degeneration of cells that produce the essential chemical dopamine in the brain. 

The study was published yesterday in the journal Stem Cells. 
CHEERS


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## chewy

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Cool dopamine producing stem cells, now we just need someone to develop some seratonin producing ones


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Stem  cell  news,  in the  papers daily     in  fact  adult  stem cell  is the  way the  world is  heading  for the  time  being  as  embryonic  s/c  is  less  ethical  atm .. its  great MSB have already  done  the  hard yards  and are a decade  infront of  likley competition in Australia ... Another good week  coming up  looking  at the depth  today .  up  40% since I posted  less than 2 weeks  ago  ..... Cheers


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## awg

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

grabbed some of these this morning, up 11% today

unusual thing is now only 1 puny seller

havent seen that b4, and would suggest further rises are likely

thin volumes though

tony


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Double  that 11%  for  today  awg.  This always runs on thin volume only  reason it fell off  is Opes Prime  got involved and sold down , but  that  is  past now  ....Cheers


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## awg

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Hi Vince & others

this stock has been showing up buy signals on several stock scans, that i ran recently on different programs.

glad i got in early today at $1.01

did pull back a bit at the close, day profit takers i spose.

not many people seem all that keen on selling tho, even tho there must be plenty with a very high % gain, especially on that sort of thin volume, after rising prices

that tells its own story...hanging on for the 10 bagger!

not sure whether i caught a fleeting glimpse of a story on the tele the other night about this lot, certainly the process

have relo who is a researcher in this area, will ask her if she has heard about them


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

I believe  there is  an  Asian connection  in the pipeline, They  love  their stem cells  (be it untrialled atm )   watch  this space ...........Cheers


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Now  up  80%  since I posted  less  than  2  months  ago , this companys  applications could  indeeed  become  one of  Australias  greatest  exports , each  application  is  in a multi billion  $  market  ....here  is  yesterdays announcement................ Stem cells trial helps broken bonesBy Jeff Turnbull
August 06, 2008 02:22pm

A 36-YEAR-old man who suffered a badly broken leg that wouldn't heal is walking again without crutches after the successful trial of stem cells to repair non-healing bones.

A year after Anthony Giancola suffered a compound fracture of the leg in a motorcycle accident on New Year's Eve 2005, he was still unable to walk freely. 

"I was 'egg shell walking' where I could only put light pressure on the ground," Mr Giancola said. 

But within two weeks of being implanted with his own bone marrow stem cells from his pelvis in December 2006, the fracture was improving and he was able to attend a friend's wedding without crutches. 

"There was no pain whatsoever and within two weeks I felt good," Mr Giancola said. 

He was one of 10 patients with long bone leg injuries who took part in the trials at the Royal Melbourne Hospital. 

Orthopaedic surgeon Richard de Steiger today said the success of the trials surprised him and paved the way for people who might otherwise undergo joint replacements to have stem cell implants instead. 

"It paves the way for exciting new research for stem cell therapy we can do in Australia," Dr de Steiger said. 

He said waiting lists could be cut with patients previously needing elective surgery becoming outpatients under the stem cell procedure, and recovering in half the time. 

It could also help people in the early stages of arthritis, Dr de Steiger said. 

Eight of the 10 trial patients had complete unions in their fractures, including one man whose fracture had not knitted properly since his accident almost four years ago. 

Dr de Steiger said the completion of the trials was still three to five years away. 

Biotech group Mesoblast Ltd has the worldwide licence to commercialise the adult stem cell technology for orthopaedic applications including the repair of bone fractures and the regeneration of cartilage at knee joints. ...........................Cheers  Vin


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Up  100%  now  since  June,  does  not  anyone    want  to  make  money  in a bear  market  ????? ignore it if u wish  but  it  is  not  going  away  ...........


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

It's been a long long time since the last post.

Its now on the radar screen of "Shares That Made You $1 Million" AF Riview.

Very slow moving & been algo traded.

But the interesting news is, finally MSB is waiting for approval from the TGA (Therapeutic Goods Admin.) for the treatment of Long bone fracture.

Results coming out soon, don't know when. Been waiting for quite awhile 

See Investor Briefing on page 6 of 7 pn ASX annoucements.


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## Tommo_Aus

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

I've been looking at MSB over the past month and seen the SP move from $1.05 to high $1.40's, keep wondering if I should buy in or not. 

What sort of projects does MSB have in the pipeline? Can others see there still being room to move?


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



Tommo_Aus said:


> I've been looking at MSB over the past month and seen the SP move from $1.05 to high $1.40's, keep wondering if I should buy in or not.
> 
> What sort of projects does MSB have in the pipeline? Can others see there still being room to move?




Tommo,
Hope you did buy some.

------------------
MSB - Got a speeding ticket.

"On 8 January 2010, Southern Cross Equities initiated research on the Company, with the recommendation of "Spec Buy", with a valuation base case of $3.01 per share and optimistic case $8.73. The base case figure of $3.00 was used as the 12-month target figure."


Royal Bank of Scotland upgraded its recommendation on the company from a "hold" to a "buy".

See company report for further details.


DYOR.


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## Tommo_Aus

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Annoyingly no and I've been kicking myself ever since. I started watching @ 1.07 then passed on a buy at 1.18, saw it quickly rocket to the 1.40's then temporarily drop and for some stupid reason I didn't buy. I believe its time I finally look for an entry with how much I've been watching, although I know the moment I enter it will plummet.


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## Agentm

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

your not alone

but i am making a change and i think i will be buying today.. 

lots of future in this one i think


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## Tommo_Aus

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Probably why I've been watching this stock so much. Nothing like watching a stock double over two months while not holding. All the signs have been pointing to a buy and its something I haven't done.


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## Tommo_Aus

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Well following my failure to get in on VIL I've made the move on MSB @ 1.91. Knowing my trading luck it'll take a large hit now and go down to 1.18


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

MSB has passed the target price  of $1.60 recommended "Buy"  set by RBS.

http://www.mesoblast.com/investor/expert_analysis22.pdf

---------------------
Southern Cross Equities report & target price link:

http://www.mesoblast.com/investor/expert_analysis23.pdf


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## Tommo_Aus

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

I'm still annoyed with myself for not getting in @ 1.18 when I had several chances but even with my entry @ 1.91 its still been a good performer making it to the 2.20's today. It seems the upwards trend is still continuing.


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## GumbyLearner

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

********************************************



********************************************


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Tommo,

You are in the profit now & still more to come.....as per Southern Cross target of $3.00 then to $8.00.

The research paper paint the future of what our medical/health system will be "Adult Stem Cell" rather then "Embryonic Stem Cell".

MSB is in the "Shares That Made You a Million" list.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17807

If TGA approve the "Long Bone Fracture" treatment, this will the the first for Australia, stem cell, I think........

So I'm hanging in for the long ride, my retirement nest egg.


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

RBS Analyst report - 22/01/2010 a bit dated but......


Buy recommendation as of 22nd Jan 2010 (target of $2.08  - been & gone)


Analysis suggests an NPV of $10.41 per share. ($8.73 Southern Cross Equities.)

Potential of $28.84 if everything goes to plan & aquisition target.



Pls read reports for more details.

http://www.mesoblast.com/investor/expert_analysis24.pdf

http://www.mesoblast.com/investor/expert_analysis23.pdf


------------------------------

Heaps of potential, will be worth the wait. IMO


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

i think i might jump in on this one if they go down a little 1.5 or close to this for a long hold.

perhaps they might have another capital raising soon


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Angus,

It'll' be good to buy low & sell high.

Here is the latest report.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100225/pdf/31nxm6nxjdn91b.pdf

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100225/pdf/31nxlnbw469b2t.pdf


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Bone Repair Patent Granted.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100303/pdf/31p1rhhjf26zb7.pdf


Mesoblast has applied for Australian regulatory approval for bone repair product.


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Really thinking of getting into this soon! should slang my old non performers and cut my losses there.

tho the close to 2 is now higher than i would have liked to get in.. 

should i wait it out a little more? or just bite the bullet and get in on it!

all my research on them so far has been nothing but good.. risky a slight bit but it seems like the future or medicine..


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



AngusSmart said:


> Really thinking of getting into this soon! should slang my old non performers and cut my losses there.
> 
> tho the close to 2 is now higher than i would have liked to get in..
> 
> should i wait it out a little more? or just bite the bullet and get in on it!
> 
> all my research on them so far has been nothing but good.. risky a slight bit but it seems like the future or medicine..




At whatever price you get in, have a stop loss.....................and average up

This is one slow moving stock that tend to burst out at news time.
Been waiting for the TGA approval for a while, hopefully soon............don't know when.


PS: I do own MSB stocks pls DYOR


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

DATE: FRIDAY, MARCH 5 2010

FERRET'S STOCK TO WATCH MESOBLAST LIMITED

"Ferret suggested investors examine Mesoblast's research results back in December when the shares stood at around $1.36."


http://www.allbusiness.com/medicine-health/diseases-disorders-endocrine/14047015-1.html



Pls DYOR


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

"The Catholic Church is again funding research into the medical use of adult stem cells.

The Sydney Archdiocese announced a $100,000 grant on Tuesday, "to support and foster research on the therapeutic potential of adult stem cells".

While the Catholic Church opposes embryonic stem cell research, it approves of the use of adult stem cells."



http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...h-funds-stem-cell-research-20100317-qcuc.html


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

MSB on trading halt, hope it is something exciting

"The company is concluding a major commercial transaction regarding a merger or acquisition....................................."

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100503/pdf/31q42gjqz00wgx.pdf


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Finally, aprroval granted.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100721/pdf/31rf9ds164vgsk.pdf

This will be the start of better thinks to come.....


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

A promising year ahead for MSB, looking at the attached chart.
Only time will tell.

All the research & clincal tests have gone through smoothly, without any major hiccup.....touch wood.


Link to:  Shares That Made You $1 Million - Fin. Review 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=591583#post591583

Please do your own research. 
This writer do own the above shares. This is not a recommendation to purchase the above shares.


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

MSB UP 4 % today.

News:
Positive  results of Novel Heart Attack Treatment.

Link: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101116/pdf/31txb577zh7lq7.pdf


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## tech/a

*MSB*

Id have thought you guys would have been all over this???
Got hit buy the MSB train this morning---all over now but would have thought there would be "some" discussion.


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Not sure  why  not many  go near  this  stock.  It  will  hit  fund managers  and  the  like  now The  $  involved  even  right  now  are  massive. MESSO .will  be  the  first  bio company  to  turn  convential  medicine  on  its  backside  .......... the  last  post  i made  on  this  forum  was  2  years  ago.   August  2008   I then  said  "  Up 100% now since June, does not anyone want to make money in a bear market ????? ignore it if u wish but it is not going away" ........... Cheers


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## gpeters

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

I'm happy to kick in an opinion.  I bought into this stock last Thursday at 3.42 even though this was a record high price because when you look at it the products these guys are developing are almost too good to be true.  Pretty happy with a 20% gain in just a couple of trading days!  If the strategic partner are offering up to 1.2 billion in milestone payments then a market capitalisation of half a billion has got to be way low.  With this new partner there is almost no risk left in this stock.  I'm looking forward to dividends from a company I thought wouldn't turn a profit for a number of years.


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

As a  matter  of  interest  at  a current  price  of  $4.20  MESSO is  up  200%  from  8/12/2009  here  is  its  rise  details 
1 week A$3.410 +A$0.790 +23.17% 
1 month A$2.700 +A$1.500 +55.56% 
3 months A$2.170 +A$2.030 +93.55% 
6 months A$1.825 +A$2.375 +130.14% 
1 year A$1.400 +A$2.800 +200.00%   ............. Cheers


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## tech/a

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Got out of it shortly after open.($4.36)
Looked up the board and couldnt find anything--was just curious.
May re enter if it shows a technical reason to.


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Volume for yesterday was only 1.5 million, on a very good news day.

Must be the word "Stem Cell"
Like it or not this is the future of medicine.....er...er stem cell ????

From what I can recall, reading somewhere about 23% is own by retail &
the rest by institutions & the Professor & all tightly held.
Correct me if I'm wrong.


Quote from CNBC:

"Adult stem cells, as opposed to the more controversial embryonic stem cells,
have a limited ability to form new types of cells and tissues. "

This an assurance that after a knee joint repair by adult stem cell,
there won't be an extra head or leg hanging of my knee..................hahahaha.


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## ubtheboss

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Well in at 4.41 today and up 10%+ already. Not bad. Read the Ceo Agm presentation. Lqots of products and trials underway. The good thing is they are staggered which means a nice stream of future news events to add value to the sp (vs waiting forever for news about one product trial....ahem...PRR)

What I love is not only the massive opportunities and potential for this company but what they are doing. This is cutting edge medicine that can and will benefit millions of people. What a great karma stock!


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Loving this on my cfd portfolio at the moment! wishing i just bought in at 1.80 in feb when i was first alerted to this stock..

Great company, great news! and finally some volume to get this moving!

i think i saw it mentioned somewhere before..

Cochlear has one product and is $75 or there abouts..

Mesoblast has many products (on the way..) 0 sales and is currently $5

The skys the limit!! onward and upward!!


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Lol  up  200 %  in  12  months  and up  25%  in  2  days  and  t/a  is  a  waiting  for  a    tech, reason  to  enter  ....


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



vince said:


> Lol  up  200 %  in  12  months  and up  25%  in  2  days  and  t/a  is  a  waiting  for  a    tech, reason  to  enter  ....




If he waits any longer he will end up like me and kicking myself for not getting in at the 1.80 i saw in feb...

i just put in another order to double my cfd portfolio.. i'm not going to wait anymore on this one!


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## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Stick  with  it angus    oh   and  i  see  you  have  been  reading  my  ouote  on  another  Forum   re  COH  and  1  application.  cheers ..


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## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Link to Mesoblast audio webcast at Boardroom Radio Australia

http://www.brr.com.au/event/72418/m...alliance-silviu-itescu-ceo--managing-director

.


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



vince said:


> Stick  with  it angus    oh   and  i  see  you  have  been  reading  my  ouote  on  another  Forum   re  COH  and  1  application.  cheers ..




Ah yeah, no worries i am going to stick with it for as long as its possible. note that i am in with a cfd and not your normal shares.. so as long as its viable and not costing me too much. (which it shouldnt)

my first buy has given me a whole lot more leverage to get more and more, very excited!

Loved your note about Msb compared to Coh, i think we're 330mil shares? and coh are something like 500mil shares.. Had to tell my girlfriend to reassure her that the house may be coming quicker than she thinks..

On another note.. what are the major risks associated with Msb? it seems the Fda approvals may be one.. but not so much a drama as they are getting thru the trials fine..

Good luck to all! cant wait for todays close!


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## ubtheboss

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

did we hit a t/a level of some sort at 5.38 today? I didn't time this right getting out and made zip. Waiting now for some buying support on a retracement yeah? Any t/a experts want to give their  on what they think a good re-entry price would be? I've got a buy in at 4.05 but I'm not that chart-savvy.


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

I'm probably just dreaming Nun.

that is if your talking about me?

bad day for topping up!!


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Well, Speeding tickets, valid announcements, positive results from clinical trials and a sleeping market..

Dont want to be sleeping on this one!


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## tech/a

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Seems missed by the masses.
Been trading this on and off 
Now on since Friday.
Managed to get the $3-$5 spike back in december but went off it until Friday!
Great Breakout today.


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## mytoniix

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Did you predict the breakout?
Was it due to the continual resistance?


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## tech/a

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



mytoniix said:


> Did you predict the breakout?
> Was it due to the continual resistance?




Hell no

I did buy the breakout of the High on 4/11.
The huge gap after the announcement was a present surprise!
Right place right time.

Been steady ever since.
I sold after the gap breakout---not the best move in hind site!

But very nice all the same.
Back in on todays breakout.


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## jimmyizgod

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

its broken above its trend channel on good volume. has been a nice little earner these past few months.
im still learning a bit about TA but i think this is right?


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

the buy and sell sides often have a large gap and it trades in big ranges all day! glad to see it pick up since the start of march..

a couple more days of over 1mil traded should see this up a little! 


glad i finally jumped on in november lastyear  hopefully that news isnt too far off..


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## ubtheboss

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

yeah I finally couldn't resist any longer and bought in at $6.85

was tempted to sell around $7.05 thinking it would retrace back (as most stocks do when they hit a round number) but woah nelly it took off yesterday!  Still dubious about it not retracing a bit but if it goes up steadily...I'm not complaining 

Long term hold for me.  I think it is Southern Cross Eq that has their next price target around $11 (their previous one was around $7).  Happy days.


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## pacman

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

_"Melbourne, April 7, 2011 (ABN Newswire) - Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB) (PINK:MBLTY) wishes to inform the market that the Board of its strategic partner Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ:CEPH) has rejected the unsolicited proposal from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc (NYSE:VRX) to acquire its issued share capital or certain assets."_

Anyone know what this is about?


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## jimmyizgod

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



pacman said:


> _"Melbourne, April 7, 2011 (ABN Newswire) - Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB) (PINK:MBLTY) wishes to inform the market that the Board of its strategic partner Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ:CEPH) has rejected the unsolicited proposal from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc (NYSE:VRX) to acquire its issued share capital or certain assets."_
> 
> Anyone know what this is about?




lol you must have missed the dramas last week i think it was. here are the cliff notes: Valeant made an offer to overtake cephalon, everyone in mesoblast got spooked and sold off under the impression that valeant would either drop or renegotiate mesoblasts milestone payments etc. sp dropped.
mesoblast issued a statement saying that their payments etc were fine and that they had plenty of funding for all their trials.
recently cephelon rejected the offer valeant made, so now valeant has around 25 days to try and replace the board of cephalon with a more compient board that will accept an offer.


thats what i can piece togeather anyways. im guessing mesoblasts SP will be pretty volatile until that period is over.


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## AngusSmart

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



jimmyizgod said:


> lol you must have missed the dramas last week i think it was. here are the cliff notes: Valeant made an offer to overtake cephalon, everyone in mesoblast got spooked and sold off under the impression that valeant would either drop or renegotiate mesoblasts milestone payments etc. sp dropped.
> mesoblast issued a statement saying that their payments etc were fine and that they had plenty of funding for all their trials.
> recently cephelon rejected the offer valeant made, so now valeant has around 25 days to try and replace the board of cephalon with a more compient board that will accept an offer.
> 
> 
> thats what i can piece togeather anyways. im guessing mesoblasts SP will be pretty volatile until that period is over.




But you forgot about the pensioners in the Us having a cry, and suing everyone in sight!


----------



## robz7777

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Seen a 5% rise on big volume on the 18th with a couple of days of drying up volume.. 

Is this a chance to make a big move next week when everyone is still on holiday mode?

Only a few cents away from its all time high at 8.31.. No selling..

Is everyone holding out for $50??


----------



## jimmyizgod

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



robz7777 said:


> Seen a 5% rise on big volume on the 18th with a couple of days of drying up volume..
> 
> Is this a chance to make a big move next week when everyone is still on holiday mode?
> 
> Only a few cents away from its all time high at 8.31.. No selling..
> 
> Is everyone holding out for $50??




i've been tempted a few times to sell off a bit and keep a core of free-carry  but i cant bring myself to. in for the long term. at least until results are released for their Congestive heart failure or Bone marrow transplantation


----------



## robz7777

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Another solid couple of weeks followed by a decent pullback today. 

Any ideas on how you go about setting a price target for this one, do you think it is safer to trade shorter term locking in profits along the way and hopefully not missing out on too many of the decent up days?? 

I know i'm (fairly) happy to sit on this one as the cost of brokerage is too high to short term trade with what I have to trade.


----------



## pacman

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



robz7777 said:


> Another solid couple of weeks followed by a decent pullback today.
> 
> Any ideas on how you go about setting a price target for this one, do you think it is safer to trade shorter term locking in profits along the way and hopefully not missing out on too many of the decent up days??
> 
> I know i'm (fairly) happy to sit on this one as the cost of brokerage is too high to short term trade with what I have to trade.




Rob, I tried to short trade it and got kicked trying to get back in, I will be sitting on this one for a while.


----------



## breaker

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

back on another site there,s a bloke spruking bad news anybody heard any thing


----------



## pacman

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



breaker said:


> back on another site there,s a bloke spruking bad news anybody heard any thing




what site was that and what did they ay?


----------



## breaker

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_stock_forum.php


----------



## Sirbill

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Key USA Patents Increase Commercial Rights and Indications announcement on the 24/5/11.

Was reading through it and their patent was suppose to end on 2012 for exclusive rights.

In the announcement they have extended it

"The new granted US patents extend Mesoblast‟s ownership of MPCs through to 2025, and ensure that during this period only Mesoblast can commercialize MPC products in the United States, the world‟s largest healthcare market."


Don't see any bad news there. SP dropped today for some random reason ??? 

Top up time


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Link to articles: Mesoblast’s vision from the top & BIO 2011 biotech profile: Mesoblast

Professor Silviu Itescu  looks a bit like Tom Hanks...


http://www.lifescientist.com.au/art...otech_profile_mesoblast_vision_from_top/?pp=2

http://www.lifescientist.com.au/article/390698/bio_2011_biotech_profile_mesoblast/?


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Financial Review: How all the stocks in the S&P 200 performed:

Mesoblast is rank No.1 for last finacial year


Mesoblast on "Catalyst"  a bit dated - 2009

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stemcells/

Seems to be getting a lot of attention lately.
-------------------------

.Offshore lure for stem cell firm Mesoblast 
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...l-firm-mesoblast/story-e6frg97f-1226065210400

Hope not. Prefer MSB to remain in Australia.


----------



## ipohpotamus

*Mesoblast bomb*

Anyone got any ideas on MSB's share price collapse today?


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: Mesoblast bomb*



ipohpotamus said:


> Anyone got any ideas on MSB's share price collapse today?




MSB initiated at underperform by Macquarie.
Also big fade day today


----------



## ipohpotamus

*Re: Mesoblast bomb*

thanks skyQuake!


----------



## skc

*Re: Mesoblast bomb*



skyQuake said:


> MSB initiated at underperform by Macquarie.
> Also big fade day today




Feels a bit overdone for just a broker call... but they just responded to a speeding ticket with no answers...


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Anyone has a link to the Mac. analysis report?

Will be an interesting report to read.


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Heart Failure May Be Cut by Stem Cells, Mesoblast Study Shows

Link to Bloomberg news

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-cut-by-stem-cells-mesoblast-study-shows.html
----------------------
Waiting for the annoucement.

See what happens to the SP.
Someone is short on MSB


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

MSB chart very pretty.  $8.30 an absolute shoe-in from here, I would have thought.  Currently $7.96. (Approx +4%) .


----------



## mrlister

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

this is plumetting atm. anyone know reasons?


----------



## herzy

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

possibly the fact that people are realising the mesoblast has nothing on offer? it's just been hyped up extremely well by a talented PR man the last few years...


----------



## Chasero

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



mrlister said:


> this is plumetting atm. anyone know reasons?




It's getting "Greeked".

Blame Greece 

Tonnes of shares have fallen >25% in May.

Another explanation might be a substantial holder selling out...


----------



## herzy

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

actually the downtrend started earlier than when greece started hitting the ASX


----------



## beatthemarket

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

They confirmed the other day that the Phase 3 trial is on track to commence shortly, subject to final regulatory approval. We can interpret this as a strong indication that partner Teva is committed to fund the trial (estimated cost ~US$100M). This should be a big positive for MSB, given that Teva is currently undertaking a strategic review of its drug development pipeline.


----------



## PropThink

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

PropThink recently interviewed Mesoblast's CEO, Silviu Itesu, on video, during the Jeffries Global Healthcare Conference in NYC. The company has a very interesting stem cell technology and the CEO talked quite a bit towards initiation of a large Phase III study to validate this product candidate for treating congestive heart failure.

Here's a link to the full video interview: http://www.propthink.com/mesoblast-interview-the-best-adult-stem-cell-technology-in-the-world/




$unny said:


> I think its the way of the future. Bought some at 0.56, now its doing good. What do u all think, alot of good announcements... have a good read. www.mesoblast.com.au


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Propthink, is there a past record of your recommendations on that site?  Thanks.


----------



## StevieY

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

latest news from Mesoblast

http://www.brw.com.au/p/entrepreneurs/itescu_wealth_jumps_as_mesoblast_NviyWzQtgAP3gWzz2qNvKN

Had a good run from $5.28 last week. 

Anyone else keeping an eye on this? 

I bought a small pack from last week.


----------



## Purple XS2

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



StevieY said:


> latest news from Mesoblast
> 
> Had a good run from $5.28 last week.
> 
> Anyone else keeping an eye on this?
> ...




I keep a bid on the buy side about 15% down from current price, and wait for it to go through one of it's fairly frequent convulsions. For a medium-sized stock (large in biotech terms) it's quite volatile.

I think there's some nervousness with this stock - _when_ or _if_ they commercialise their work, they should be massive, just for now it's a case of pricing the risk.

Discl: not holding at present.


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

*

Huge funding boost for Japanese stem cell research
10 trillion yen, or approximately £70 billion just for stem cell resesrch.*
Looks like the Japanese government is preparing for the future or already have a big problem on their hands.

"the largest single allocation will be for stem cell research, with a focus on work involving clinical applications of induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells – cells derived from adult tissue that are ‘reprogrammed’ into new cell types. The total investment package is just over 10 trillion yen, or approximately £70 billion, around 10% of which will go to scientific research."

"The investment is strongly geared towards accelerating realisation of the clinical and commercial promise of regenerative medicine. Professor Shinya Yamanaka, Director of the Centre for iPS Cell Research and Application, said it was "telling us to rush iPS cell-related technologies to patients as quickly as possible”."

Is this something related to the Fukushima tsunami nuclear fallout?
Very sad if the residents of Fukushima is already having problems from the nuclear fallout.

Link: 
http://www.phgfoundation.org/news/13420/


----------



## StevieY

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Encouraging news!

Latest news:

Mesoblast (ASX: MSB) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to begin a phase two trial evaluating a single intravenous infusion of allogeneic, or “off-the-shelf”, Mesenchymal Precursor Cells (MPCs) for the treatment of active rheumatoid arthritis.

This is the first in a series of programs designed to establish the credentials of the company’s intravenous product formulation for a broad-based spectrum of inflammatory and immunologic conditions.

Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease caused by aberrant activation of multiple immune pathways involving both monocytes and T cells, ultimately resulting in joint destruction.

Existing biologic treatments target only single immune pathways, resulting in incomplete responses, need for chronic administration, and potentially unacceptable infectious adverse events.

In contrast, Mesoblast's MPCs have been shown in preclinical studies to have a broad immuno-modulatory mechanism of action, simultaneously inhibiting T cells and monocytes involved in inflammation and autoimmunity.

The broader effects of Mesoblast's MPCs on multiple immune pathways suggest that they may be particularly useful agents for reducing the inflammation and permanent joint damage associated with progression of rheumatoid arthritis.

Mesoblast’s randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial is expected to begin during the June quarter 2013, and will recruit patients across multiple sites in the U.S. States and Australia.

The trial will compare the effects of a single intravenous infusion of allogeneic MPCs dosed at 1 or 2 million cells per kilogram compared with placebo in 48 patients who have had an incomplete or inadequate response to a biologic inhibitor of the TNF-alpha pathway for active rheumatoid arthritis.

Safety and effectiveness of the MPC therapy will be assessed at multiple time points with the primary endpoints defined as three months.

A randomised, placebo-controlled study in 30 sheep with collagen-induced arthritis, a model that manifests joint damage characteristic of human rheumatoid arthritis, treatment with Mesoblast’s MPCs showed that the MPCs can concurrently inhibit both Th17 T cells and pro-inflammatory monocytes, and improve synovial tissue pathology.

This provides a rationale for their potential use as both a first-line biologic treatment in those not responding to conventional anti-rheumatic agents and in patients with incomplete responses to biologic inhibitors of the TNF-alpha pathway alone.


Large therapeutics market

The rheumatoid arthritis therapeutics market was valued at $10.3 billion globally in 2010, and has doubled over a four-year period after growing at a compound annual growth rate of 12.3%.

The prevalence of the disease is estimated to be 0.8% worldwide, with women twice as likely to develop the disease as men.

In the U.S. alone, rheumatoid arthritis afflicts 1.3 million people. It is responsible for 250,000 hospitalisations and 9 million physician visits each year.


Source: http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...-two-trial-of-arthritis-treatment--38871.html


----------



## Country Lad

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



Out Too Soon said:


> MSB = the one that got away, came up in scans & I didn't believe it




Yes, reasonably straight forward breakout a few days ago.  I have been in and out of this one and fortunately in at the moment.

MSB has no income and is really a high priced biotech spekkie and I treat it as such.  The trick will be to be in it for the longer term at the right time when the products are confirmed as ready to be commercialised. 

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Knobby22

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

I tried to get in at the bottom of the spike but it rose too quickly. It will come back.


----------



## pacman

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



SuperGlue said:


> *
> 
> Huge funding boost for Japanese stem cell research
> 10 trillion yen, or approximately £70 billion just for stem cell resesrch.*
> Looks like the Japanese government is preparing for the future or already have a big problem on their hands.
> 
> "the largest single allocation will be for stem cell research, with a focus on work involving clinical applications of induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells – cells derived from adult tissue that are ‘reprogrammed’ into new cell types. The total investment package is just over 10 trillion yen, or approximately £70 billion, around 10% of which will go to scientific research."
> 
> "The investment is strongly geared towards accelerating realisation of the clinical and commercial promise of regenerative medicine. Professor Shinya Yamanaka, Director of the Centre for iPS Cell Research and Application, said it was "telling us to rush iPS cell-related technologies to patients as quickly as possible”."
> 
> Is this something related to the Fukushima tsunami nuclear fallout?
> Very sad if the residents of Fukushima is already having problems from the nuclear fallout.
> 
> Link:
> http://www.phgfoundation.org/news/13420/




The whole problem with induced pluripotent stem cells (IPS) is that they are as old as the donor, their telemeres are shorter than embryonic stem cell derived cells and do not perform as well. There remain many problems with IPS cells staying 'fixed', they have a habit of reverting back to their mother cell. 

At the moment MSB is performing extremely well and has for the past few years, but once Advanced Cell Technology (US company, ticker ACTC:OTC) has its human embryonic stem cell (hESC) trials for SMD, AMD and MMD (3 forms of blindness) finished the market will crack wide open. They are also seeking FDA approval to start trials in developing IPS and hESC derived platelets.

I held MSB for some time until I found out what ACT was doing. As the only company in the world performing FDA approved human embryonic stem cell therapy in the US and the UK, they are showing great results, nil safety concerns and visual improvements in patents injected. May I suggest that the Japanese have put their eggs into a basket that may have the bottom fall out of it, it would be safer to hedge their bets and provide funds for hESC's too.

Adult derived stem cells have a huge future as the need for homologous (same type) cells for individual organs etc. one size does not fit all and many of these companies using IPS cells will flourish and fit the niche for these individualised stem cells.

Just wanted to add my 2 cents worth and open discussion on other stem cell options.


----------



## vince

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

MGVS in advanced talks with Australian stem cell co


Mesoblast would commercialize MGVS's leading product, a cell-based therapy for the treatment of peripheral artery disease.

19 February 13 17:36, Gali Weinreb


                              Sources inform ''Globes'' that Multi Gene Vascular Systems Ltd. (MGVS) is advanced talks with Australian stem cell company Mesoblast Ltd. (ASX: MSB) to commercialize MGVS's leading product, MultiGeneAngio, a cell-based therapy for the treatment of peripheral artery disease and blocked arteries in the leg. 
MGVS declined to comment on the report. 

Earlier this year, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) cancelled its development agreement with MGVS as part of Teva's strategic review. Teva invested $9 million in MGVS at a company value of $135 million in early 2012, and promised to finance the tens of millions of dollars for clinical trials of MultiGeneAngio, in exchange for commercial rights and an option to make an additional investment in the company or even acquire it outright. Mesoblast is now stepping into Teva's shoes. 

Under the pending deal, Mesoblast promises to finance clinical trials for MultiGeneAngio under milestone payments and royalties amounting to tens of millions of dollars in exchange for commercial rights to the product. The deal may not include investment in MGVS. 

Mesoblast, which has a market cap of AU$2 billion on the Australian Stock Exchange, develops therapies based on adult stem cells, a business that is synergetic with MGVS. In December 2010, Mesoblast signed an agreement with Cephalon to develop stem cell therapies for heart attacks, Parkinson's disease, and strokes. Teva's acquisition of Cephalon made it the largest shareholder in Mesoblast, and the agreement with Cephalon was not cancelled despite the changes at Teva. If Mesoblast signs the agreement with MGVS, its link with Teva will be reestablished. 

MGVS was founded in 2000 by president and acting CEO Prof. Moshe Flugelman and Dr. Basil Lewis. It has raised $27 million to date from DFJ Tamir Fishman Ventures Ltd. (TASE: TFVC), Ofer Hi Tech Ltd., Aviv Venture Capital, and private investors, including Eitan Wertheimer. The company's leading products MultiGeneAngio and MultiGeneGraft are undergoing clinical trials. 

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on February 19, 2013........................ Cheers Vin


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

POSITIVE INTERIM RESULTS IN PHASE 2 TRIAL FOR DISC REPAIR 

According to report, full trial results expected Q3 2013.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=msb&timeframe=D&period=M6


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Is Cell Therapy the 'Future of Medicine'?: Jason Kolbert

Mesoblast discussed in the interview - quite a long interview.

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/15472

Please DYOR


----------



## SuperGlue

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*

Link to a write up for Biotech stocks:

http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/42153-7-biotech-stocks-with-bounding-share-prices.html


Please DYOR.


----------



## crossroads

*Mesoblast*

Hey there, has anybody got a view on the latest with MSB? its in a trading halt pending a listing on the Nasdaq


----------



## piggybank

*Re: MSB - Mesoblast*



SuperGlue said:


> Link to a write up for Biotech stocks:
> 
> http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/42153-7-biotech-stocks-with-bounding-share-prices.html
> 
> Please DYOR.




Personally, I prefer reports/research on companies (especially Biotechs) more recent than this one!!


​
It appears my sarcasm is "outdated" by the fact that the report submitted by SuperGlue was actually only released a few days earlier, so I apologize to him and I will have my eyes checked out.

Although I have read and heard (via Foxtel - Your Money, Your Shares) quite a bit about the stock, it doesn't appear to be "loved" here!!


----------



## rryall

MSB up over 10% today on news of its licensee in Japan, JCR Pharmaceuticals, has received notification that the Japanese Government’s National Health Insurance (NHI) body has formally set the price for the mesenchymal stem cell product TEMCELL, effective from today.

I think timing of announcement was done for the benefit of AUS investors since US markets are closed due to thanksgiving. I've bought a smallish parcel today due to price and announcement and holding for long term. Anyone else following this stock?


----------



## skyQuake

That nasdaq listing has been quite a disaster! Japan news was very promising (though actually out yesterday).
Today had M&G funds increasing its holdings which would provide a nice chunk of optimism for many.


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> That nasdaq listing has been quite a disaster! Japan news was very promising (though actually out yesterday).
> Today had M&G funds increasing its holdings which would provide a nice chunk of optimism for many.




For some reason ASX investors always have the idea that a foreign exchange listing will be awesome... stock will be re-rated, manipulators will be gone etc etc. LNC was a classic. BOTA (the old Biota) was another one. I struggle to think of any company changing home resulting in any of these wishes.

Let see if MSB can shake off the terrible start on Nasdaq.


----------



## barman76

Hi. Anyone following msb and me so now???


----------



## qldfrog

a few shares but not enough to follow closely


----------



## mcgrath111

I currently hold MSB and follow it some what closely.

Believe that the company holds strong prospects, however as with stem cell therapy it's a very speculative stock.
An ASX announcement has just released the trial size can be substantially reduced for the treatment of heart failure. This should be recognized as positive news, however is down 4% - likely due to market sentiment overall.

MSB is continuing to burn through cash, however in the coming months announcements in regards to different treatments will hopefully prove successful and buck the negative downtrend MSB has faced recently. 

The above being said, it's really a hard stock to value, and whether stem cell therapy will ever take off (Even though the potential is there).
As previously reading through an ASX update, the cost of temcell etc. is extremely expensive for the patient.


----------



## Mofra

This one has been on the watchlist for a while (glad I didn't buy when higher, very tempted to) - finally spiking due to the release of "bags" in Japan and phase 3 trial commencement in the US. 

Hard to price this one (as per all biotechs) but has it finally turned the corner? Chartists might like the mini-breakout but need to confirm momentum.


----------



## UMike

I got these @ $2 on the way down.... Really wondering when to jump off this ship.


----------



## Knobby22

I'm on board now.
I just like all the 3 phase trials taking place and the markets they are entering including inflammation, lower back pain, and todays announcement regarding the heart. Price has doubled recently.  I believe the worm has turned.


----------



## PeterJ

multiple entries have been presented on MSB in the past few months
with a $3 target offered early this week
sold half


----------



## tech/a

How was $3 as a target calculated?

Why sell only half if that was the target?

What do you expect from here --- why?


----------



## PeterJ

$3 was a previous resistance level on the chart,
and a round $ value, psychological point and
a good place to lock in 2R +
the remainder will run with a trailing stop should the trend continue

Peter


----------



## tech/a

Thanks
I've played it a little differently.

Good plan


----------



## Cam019

Ascending triangle forming. I'd be looking for a breakout and close above $3.01.


----------



## tech/a

Still in it


----------



## PeterJ

Cam019 said:


> Ascending triangle forming. I'd be looking for a breakout and close above $3.01.
> 
> View attachment 70786




Have been watching this consolidation closely and
the close above $3.01 yesterday 
triggered my buy order 
which added to my current position
Peter


----------



## kid hustlr

All you hot money players are ruining it for the rest of us


----------



## PeterJ

well, that did not last very long
it turned very quickly and nastily,
i have my stops in the market because i do not watch it during the day, and
	

		
			
		

		
	






was stopped out 7 days into the trade
lets see where this retracement ends


----------



## tech/a

Out at $3.09
Think it's over


----------



## kid hustlr

EOD trading hurt me on this one


----------



## PeterJ

kid hustlr said:


> EOD trading hurt me on this one



i average(d) 1-2 per year like this and worse for many years
i have gad to adjust and modify my trading plan
all we can do is manage the losses as best we can
and let the runnners go as far as possible
we will never pick the top or bottom
Peter


----------



## Trendnomics

Currently an open profit for me (+29%) - the trend is still intact:




Maybe it ends being a +10% closed profit OR a +++100% closed profit.

#Discipline


----------



## tech/a

*Been following this in Charts of interest.






# Discipline (# Hope)*


----------



## Skate

tech/a said:


> *Been following this in Charts of interest.
> 
> View attachment 71007
> 
> 
> # Discipline (# Hope)*




Hi tech/a

Question:
1. Did you exit on the breaking of your trendline on Thursday?
--or--
2. Was it another trigger -- Or -- a discretionary call?
--or--
3. Was your exit a combination of the two alarm bells and another trigger not disclosed above?


----------



## tech/a

Got out on the next bar which would have been labelled 3
actually closed it as I left the office for a meeting. Not the best exit.
As it turned out the 3 RD day had lots of volume but no reaction to BAR 2
I was pretty sure it had reached its peak---for now.
I did not expect the massive drop though.

Sometimes you get lucky.
I expect some trading now under $3

Trading on 5/5 wasn't very impressive. Buying met with supply.
Until Supply dries up this is going nowhere.


----------



## Trendnomics

tech/a said:


> *Been following this in Charts of interest.
> 
> View attachment 71007
> 
> 
> # Discipline (# Hope)*



I must just be lucky..."# Hope" has been very profitable over the last 4 years.


----------



## tech/a

I'm sure you'll get the odd one but I know it's not a profitable strategy long term.


----------



## Trendnomics

tech/a said:


> I'm sure you'll get the odd one but I know it's not a profitable strategy long term.



I systematically traded* two funds, over a combined 330 closed trades, during a period with the following notable events:

Commodities crash (2013 - )

Bloody Monday (24/08/15)
Chinese market crash (2016)
Brexit (2016)
Trump Dump (2016)
Closed trades annual returns (2017 set for another positive year):










According to my system (DYOR), this trend (MSB) is still well alive - I'm willing to take a loss on this one, rather than miss out on a possible large positive outlier. 

Lets see what happens .

* = (one constant unchanged system + 100% disciplined trading)


----------



## tech/a

50%
WOW


----------



## Triathlete

Trendnomics said:


> Currently an open profit for me (+29%) - the trend is still intact:
> View attachment 71004
> 
> Maybe it ends being a +10% closed profit OR a +++100% closed profit.
> 
> #Discipline



I am trying to understand your reasoning regards the trend is still intact on your chart.
Could you explain at what price level would you say the trend is broken???


----------



## UMike

Capital raising @$1.40

This is a hard one to pick!


----------



## Knobby22

Good results got phase 2 rheumatoid arthritis treatment.

From announcement:
Analyses were performed for the whole study population and for the pre-specified exploratory subgroups based on whether the subjects had previously received 1-2 biologic agents or more than 2 biologic agents.


Key findings:

• Infusions were well-tolerated and there were no treatment-related serious adverse events reported during the 52-week period, with the safety profile over 52 weeks comparable among the placebo and two MPC treatment groups.

• A single intravenous MPC infusion in biologic refractory RA patients resulted in dose-related improvements in clinical symptoms, function, disease activity and patient-reported outcomes. Efficacy signals were observed for each of ACR 20/50/70, ACR-N, HAQ-DI, SF-36 and DAS-28 disease activity score.

• The 2 million MPC/kg dose showed the greatest overall treatment responses. Onset of treatment responses occurred as early as 4 weeks, peaked at 12 weeks, were maintained through 39 weeks, and waned by 52 weeks.

• Greatest benefits over 52 weeks were seen in patients who had failed less than 3 biologics (1-


2 biologic sub-group) prior to MPC treatment, identifying this as a potentially optimal target population.

• The following statistically significant outcomes were observed over the 52-week study period:


----------



## Knobby22

Exciting times.
one good phase 3 results, another to follow soon, deals with bigger companies, price up 60% in two weeks.


----------



## greggles

Mesoblast doing very well in the last week. On 20 September the company announced continued strong survival outcomes through Day 180 in children with steroid refractory acute Graft Versus Host Disease (aGVHD) treated with Mesoblast's Phase 3 product candidate remestemcel-L.

MSB reached 12 month highs today ($2.07) and closed at $2.05, up 9.6% and near its high for the day. It's looking like it may have some more short term momentum.


----------



## Knobby22

greggles said:


> Mesoblast doing very well in the last week. On 20 September the company announced continued strong survival outcomes through Day 180 in children with steroid refractory acute Graft Versus Host Disease (aGVHD) treated with Mesoblast's Phase 3 product candidate remestemcel-L.
> 
> MSB reached 12 month highs today ($2.07) and closed at $2.05, up 9.6% and near its high for the day. It's looking like it may have some more short term momentum.
> 
> View attachment 89476



I have taken a big position.
I believe the price will keep rising from here till March when some more phase 3 testing comes out.


----------



## tech/a

I hope your right Knobby.
But I expect a pullback from this testing of a previous high.
If it blasts straight through and then sees the highs acting as support---
then I think you'll be in a better position.


----------



## Knobby22

My entry price is $1.74 over two trades. As you know though I do use some technical trading fundamental analysis is an important factor in my decisions.
The deal with Tasly has given the  the company the cash they need to complete the trials and they have a loan ready also to stop dilution.
The end stage heart treatment appears to be working so further trials and blue sky ahead.
The acute refractory treatment works which will provide more cash and cash flow but the big one is the lower back pain treatment with early phase 3 results coming out in March next year. 
Big hopes.


----------



## Knobby22

Not to say I know you are a smart black duck so we may see a pullback. March is a distant horizon in the share market.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> I hope your right Knobby.
> But I expect a pullback from this testing of a previous high.
> If it blasts straight through and then sees the highs acting as support---
> then I think you'll be in a better position.




*Well Id say that's about as good as it comes!!


*


----------



## barney

Knobby22 said:


> *I have taken a big position.*




Good call @Knobby22 …… I believe you are wanted at the bar as its apparently your shout!


----------



## tech/a

Being smashed today.
Needs to hold at old resistance.
The volume being so high is a concern.
These wide range high volume days tend
to correct very next day to about 50% of the
Bar.say $2.25. I haven't checked news
Is there a Catalyst?


----------



## Knobby22

No catalyst.
News was just saying that they had been put into a conference.
Went a bit parabolic. Too many short term traders. Not concerned.

Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB; Nasdaq:MESO) today announced that the 159-patient randomized placebo-controlled Phase 2b trial evaluating its allogeneic mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) product candidate MPC-150-IM in the treatment of end-stage heart failure patients implanted with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) has been selected as a late-breaking presentation at the 2018 Scientific Sessions of the American Heart Association being held in Chicago from November 11-13.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Being smashed today.
> Needs to hold at old resistance.
> The volume being so high is a concern.
> These wide range high volume days tend
> to correct very next day to about 50% of the
> Bar.say $2.25. I haven't checked news
> Is there a Catalyst?




Don't you love it what stocks follow the script.


----------



## Knobby22

Surprise drop after latest results.
I don't really understand why.
It appears to me that people were hoping the treatment would cure hearts when it was all about inflammation or possibly it was that the mortality was the same. They were extremely sick patients and it was a small trial, the next trial will be the one that shows how effective the treatment is.


----------



## barney

Knobby22 said:


> Surprise drop after latest results.
> I don't really understand why.




I had a quick read of the announcement and was also surprised by the Market reaction … The only thing I can see which may have been taken as a negative is Bolded below ….


 Mesoblast received specific guidance from the FDA that reduction in major GI bleeding episodes and related hospitalizations in the current trial is a clinically meaningful outcome with a high unmet need that could meet requirements for an approvable regulatory endpoint. *In contrast, the FDA advised* that the primary endpoint in the current trial of temporary weaning from full LVAD support is considered a biomarker *and is not a clinically meaningful outcome in and of itself*


----------



## Knobby22

barney said:


> I had a quick read of the announcement and was also surprised by the Market reaction … The only thing I can see which may have been taken as a negative is Bolded below ….
> 
> 
> Mesoblast received specific guidance from the FDA that reduction in major GI bleeding episodes and related hospitalizations in the current trial is a clinically meaningful outcome with a high unmet need that could meet requirements for an approvable regulatory endpoint. *In contrast, the FDA advised* that the primary endpoint in the current trial of temporary weaning from full LVAD support is considered a biomarker *and is not a clinically meaningful outcome in and of itself*



Yes, I looked at this closely. Weaning is removing off the support machines so it didn't achieve anything on this trial. I am still fining that sentence hard to understand. What does the FDA mean by is being considered a biomarker and is not a clinical meaningful outcome with regard to weaning. I need some medical advice, any doctors around? I'll ask around.


----------



## barney

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, I looked at this closely. Weaning is removing off the support machines so it didn't achieve anything on this trial. I am still fining that sentence hard to understand. What does the FDA mean by is being considered a biomarker and is not a clinical meaningful outcome with regard to weaning. I need some medical advice, any doctors around? I'll ask around.




Yeah it was a bit hard to understand for me as a layman …… Given the Market response, there could be a couple of explanations for the price drop … neither of them clear at this point ….. Worth keeping a close eye on Volume and any potential accumulation/selling in the short/medium term.


----------



## Knobby22

barney said:


> Yeah it was a bit hard to understand for me as a layman …… Given the Market response, there could be a couple of explanations for the price drop … neither of them clear at this point ….. Worth keeping a close eye on Volume and any potential accumulation/selling in the short/medium term.



There is a bit of clarity in the latest announcement. the statistics for weaning need to have a larger base to be considered statistically proven. At present it is only 68% proven.


----------



## Knobby22

I bought some more at $1.45 at the opening.
It is now my third largest holding.


----------



## jbocker

I just bought a few. Seems like a good discount at the moment.


----------



## jbocker

jbocker said:


> I just bought a few. Seems like a good discount at the moment.



I bailed after a few days with a small loss. But it really has fallen away since. Will keep an eye on it for a re-entry next year.


----------



## Knobby22

Yea, I am down a bit. Not sure if I am missing something.


----------



## Skate

Knobby22 said:


> Yea, I am down a bit. Not sure if I am missing something.




Hi @Knobby22

*The Good & the Bad*
The BAD - Mesoblast (MSB) makes no money 
The GOOD - Mesoblast know how to put their handout and ask for more money. (they do it constantly)

@Knobby22 have you noticed over the last 10 years they are always 'inches away' from making a breakthrough?

*Going from memory (I stand to be corrected)*
8 out of the last 10 years Mesoblast have been cash flow negative (meaning Mesoblast is a business that is more geared towards research than to make money for shareholders)

Investing in a business that makes no money is not a good idea IMHO.

Skate.


----------



## Knobby22

Mesoblast is in phase 3 trials at the moment with one success so far that is making money so saying they don't make money is untrue. It takes many years to get to this point but now we are at the pointy end where hopefully success occurs.

They may need another raising to help commercialise the results, they do need partners to commercialise the results. They did the China deal with the latest Heart treatment that is paying for the trials. Biotechs are always hard but the results are great. I am doing very well on two others and was doing very well on this before the drop. Comparing it to standard companies such as banks (which have not done well btw) is not really relevant. It is a different beast.

I may sell and wait to re-enter. It is hard to know whether the drop is just the market dumping it as it is in fear mode at the moment or whether it is the need for another raising that I had not thought necessary. The lower back pain trial is the big one with results due in March next year which is an eternity in this market.


----------



## mcgrath111

Knobby22 said:


> I bought some more at $1.45 at the opening.
> It is now my third largest holding.



Big play, balls of steel.
What's your top two if you don't mind me asking?


----------



## Knobby22

mcgrath111 said:


> Big play, balls of steel.
> What's your top two if you don't mind me asking?



I did reduce soon after as price dropped but still own a few and waiting to buy. This company is giving me issues and I am down. The triall results were good as expected but they dropped anyway.

 Top 6, CSL 
 Credit Corp
DGR
Afterpay
Star Pharma
CWY Cleanaway

All these are in profit. MSB is next.


----------



## UMike

Re entered with the SMSF @1.05.
Made money from this roller coaster before. But usually pulled out too early.

Time will tell.


----------



## Knobby22

Bought some more today at $1.20. (based on charting support levels)
I hope I know what I'm doing!


----------



## Knobby22

MSB is my pick for this month.
I am hoping/expecting the interim report for the phase 3 trial into lower back pain comes out this month.
there is meant to be some companies hoping to partner on this product and on good news a big SP rise is probable.


----------



## barney

Knobby22 said:


> expecting the interim report for the phase 3 trial *into lower back pain*




Send them round to my place

Chart looks to be in a pivotal position … if it can get above the recent triple top around $1.27 it could start to wriggle up a bit.


----------



## Smurf1976

barney said:


> Chart looks to be in a pivotal position … if it can get above the recent triple top around $1.27 it could start to wriggle up a bit.



Up just over 10% today and closed at $1.40


----------



## barney

Smurf1976 said:


> Up just over 10% today and closed at $1.40




Certainly looks a lot healthier  … Nice increase in Volume as well.

If the $1.40 area converts from Resistance to Support, the wriggling could turn into a shake


----------



## Knobby22

*New York, USA; and Melbourne, Australia; Monday March 25, 2019*: Mesoblast Limited

(ASX:MSB; Nasdaq:MESO) today announced its licensee in Japan, JCR Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd., has filed to extend marketing approval of TEMCELL®1 HS Inj. for use in patients with Epidermolysis Bullosa (EB). TEMCELL is already approved for the treatment of acute graft versus host disease (aGVHD), and was the first allogeneic cellular medicine to receive full regulatory approval in Japan.


30,000 people have this disease in the USA.
No treatment at present.
Japan has had acute graft host disease approved for over a year now. The rest of the world is so slow.


----------



## tech/a

See chart


----------



## Knobby22

Where? 
I see price and volume rising.


----------



## peter2

I'll show you mine if you'll show us yours.  @Knobby22  you just beat me to it.


----------



## Knobby22

Battle continues, higher lows, looks like keen buying to me.
Forming a wedge. Yesterday seemed quite bullish to me, price dropped and then just before the end of the day someone bought everything they could to take it to a rise.
(Sorry no graph, can't work how to do it from Bell Direct)


----------



## Ann

Knobby22 said:


> Battle continues, higher lows, looks like keen buying to me.
> Forming a wedge. Yesterday seemed quite bullish to me, price dropped and then just before the end of the day someone bought everything they could to take it to a rise.
> (Sorry no graph, can't work how to do it from Bell Direct)




G'day Knobby,

I had a quick glance at this on a six month Equivolume Chart. It looks like it is about to hit a big block of selling pressure coming from November 12th 2018 up to $1.97, once it is through that it has a bit of a gap which will close at $2.10. Let's see how it goes.


----------



## Ann

ASX announcement this morning....FDA Agrees to Rolling Review of Mesoblast BLA Submission


----------



## Knobby22

I've selected this company as my monthly pick as though there is no obvious catalyst this month,  the price is continuously rising and there are a few good announcements relating to deals that could occur.


----------



## Knobby22

Mesoblast got orphan drug designation for its heart failure cell therapy product candidate, Revascor,


----------



## Knobby22

My pick of the month again (after successfully tipping Polynovo last month).
I have noticed there is a lot of accumulation going on. There is a lot of interest in this company which has some outstanding phase 3 trials due early next year and this company SP will take off. 
It could be this month.


----------



## greggles

Knobby22 said:


> I have noticed there is a lot of accumulation going on. There is a lot of interest in this company which has some outstanding phase 3 trials due early next year and this company SP will take off.
> It could be this month.




You weren't far off Knobby. It's certainly moving today after announcing that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Grünenthal, a global leader in pain management, to develop and commercialise MPC-06-ID, a Phase III allogeneic cell therapy candidate for the treatment of chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease in patients who have exhausted conservative treatment options.

Under the partnership, Grünenthal will have exclusive commercialisation rights to MPC-06-ID for Europe and Latin America.

The announcement continues:


> Mesoblast will receive up to US$150 million in upfront and milestone payments prior to product launch, as well as further commercialisation milestone payments. These payments include commitments up to US$45 million within the first year comprising US$15 million on signing, US$20 million on receiving regulatory approval to begin a confirmatory Phase III trial in Europe, and US$10 million on certain clinical and manufacturing outcomes. Cumulative milestone payments could exceed US$1 billion depending on the final outcome of Phase III studies and patient adoption. Mesoblast will also receive tiered double digit royalties on product sales.




Sounds like it could be a pretty lucrative deal if all goes well. Lower back pain is an affliction that many people deal with, especially in middle and old age. I imagine the global market for this treatment would be huge.

MSB currently up 16.8% to $1.70 following the announcement on solid volume of more than 3 million shares. Looking good.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

greggles said:


> You weren't far off Knobby. It's certainly moving today after announcing that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Grünenthal, a global leader in pain management, to develop and commercialise MPC-06-ID, a Phase III allogeneic cell therapy candidate for the treatment of chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease in patients who have exhausted conservative treatment options.
> 
> Under the partnership, Grünenthal will have exclusive commercialisation rights to MPC-06-ID for Europe and Latin America.
> 
> The announcement continues:
> 
> 
> Sounds like it could be a pretty lucrative deal if all goes well. Lower back pain is an affliction that many people deal with, especially in middle and old age. I imagine the global market for this treatment would be huge.
> 
> MSB currently up 16.8% to $1.70 following the announcement on solid volume of more than 3 million shares. Looking good.



MSB is a serial pump-dump biotech.  And this announcement takes the cake.  As a general rule, degenerative discs don't cause pain.  So they're coming up with a solution to a non-problem.  Pain _*is*_ a problem (a huge market, as you point out), but very rarely does it have anything to do with DDD.

Always worth a trade, but also worth having a look to see how past pump-dumps have played out.


----------



## Knobby22

I disagree.
Steroids are the method of choice at present to lower inflammation. This treatment is more long lasting and they are getting cash including 15mil just for the signing. Now there will be no more need for a raising. There are also other phase 3 trials going on all coming out next year.
The steroid refractory treatment (Temcell) is being used in Japan and will roll out around the world as approvals increase (more phase 3 trials) initially used to save children's lives and already bringing in some income.
The heart treatments (Revascor) are also going through phase 3 trials due early 2020.

More on back pain below.
https://www.webmd.com/back-pain/degenerative-disk-disease-overview#1


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Everyone has degenerative discs after about age 40.  In most cases it causes no symptoms at all.  To call that a 'disease' is wrong.  That would be like calling age-related skin changes (that everyone experiences) a disease.

So, everyone over 40 has degeneration of joints and discs in the spine.  Yet the pain comes and goes.  One week it's incapacitating, the next week it's gone.  Does the degeneration come and go?  No, it's a constant.  Why?  Activity levels don't explain it either.

Have a look at some spinal xrays of 80-90 year olds.  They look like a rat has been gnawing at them - holes and crud everywhere.  If degeneration _caused _pain, then every 80-90 yr old would be writhing in pain.  Yet rates of back pain peak in the middle age years.  Clearly, DD is not a cause of pain.

SP depends upon perception, so it could very well continue upwards.  I'm just saying that it's based upon nothing.


----------



## greggles

Interesting perspective GB. Thanks for your thoughts.

Why do you think Grünenthal Group is throwing so much money at this? They appear to be a pretty reputable German outfit with a great deal of experience in the pain management field.


> Grünenthal is a global leader in pain management and related diseases. As a science-based, privately-owned pharmaceutical company, we have a long track record of bringing innovative treatments and state-of-the-art technologies to patients worldwide. Our purpose is to change lives for the better – and innovation is our passion. We are focusing all of our activities and efforts on working towards our vision of a world free of pain. Grünenthal is headquartered in Aachen, Germany, and has affiliates in 30 countries across Europe, Latin America and the US. Our products are available in more than 100 countries. In 2018 Grünenthal employed around 4,900 people and achieved sales of € 1.3 bn.




Surely they must see a lot of potential in MSB's Phase III trial for MPC-06-ID?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

greggles said:


> Interesting perspective GB. Thanks for your thoughts.
> 
> Why do you think Grünenthal Group is throwing so much money at this? They appear to be a pretty reputable German outfit with a great deal of experience in the pain management field.
> 
> 
> Surely they must see a lot of potential in MSB's Phase III trial for MPC-06-ID?




Thanks.  The terms 'reputable' and 'experienced' are poorly correlated with real insight, actionable knowledge and successful outcomes.  They just don't know what they're doing, and it's very common in the field of pain science.


----------



## Knobby22

It doesn't address all forms of back pain, just inflammation which is normally treated by steroids.
The trial results so far are pretty good wouldn't you say?
Do you work in the area?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Knobby22 said:


> It doesn't address all forms of back pain, just inflammation which is normally treated by steroids.
> The trial results so far are pretty good wouldn't you say?
> Do you work in the area?




The phase 2 trials were done against control groups (saline, HA), but that's a far cry from a double-blinded trial.  So the charts look good, but they mean nothing.

Even if the phase 2 _was_ double-blinded and all you got was a situation where half the patients had a 50% reduction in pain, that's pretty useless.  I can name a few individual practitioners who would smash that sort of response rate without resorting to invasive methods.

Yes.

Consider a recent paper in Lancet which said (paraphrasing): there's no medical or surgical intervention which has proven effective for LBP.  Millions of studies have been directed at the wrong mechanisms and it continues to this day.  There's a lot of very rigid, old-fashioned thinking in the pain science field.  https://www.monash.edu/news/article...ence-of-medical-negligence-and-misinformation


----------



## Knobby22

Thanks Gringotts Bank. Good points.

The method or argument of efficacy is as follows: it is sort of like a stem cell treatment.
I do think there may be a case but you may be right and it fails the phase 3 testing but it also is a novel approach and may succeed.

*MPC-06-ID *is a Phase 3 product candidate for the treatment of chronic low back pain caused by disc degeneration (CLBP).  It is being developed for patients who have exhausted conservative treatment options, may have failed epidural steroid injections and have no further treatment option other than invasive and costly surgical interventions.

*Disease Indication and Patient Population*

Over four million patients in the United States alone suffer from CLBP1,2,3,4 , which is caused by damage to the disc as a result of aging, genetics, and injuries. This compromises the disc’s capacity to act as a fluid-filled cushion between vertebrae and to provide anatomical stability. Damage also causes an inflammatory response with ingrowth of nerves that result in chronic pain. This combination results in CLBP and functional disability.

When disc degeneration has progressed to a point that pain and loss of function can no longer be managed by conservative means e.g. medication and physiotherapy, major invasive surgery such as spinal fusion is the only remaining option.

Existing therapies treat the symptoms of the disease, but are not disease-modifying and thus do not address the underlying disease cause. As a result, we believe that the most significant unmet need is a therapy that can not only improve the patient’s pain and function, but has the ability to reverse, halt or slow disease progression.

By treating the cause of CLBP, we believe MPC-06-ID could fill an unmet treatment gap for a large population of patients.

*MPC-06-ID*

MPC-06-ID is a tier 1 product candidate which consists of a unit dose of 6 million mesenchymal precursor cells (MPCs). It is injected by syringe directly into a targeted damaged disc in an outpatient procedure.

*Mechanism of Action*

Extensive preclinical studies have established that MPCs have anti-inflammatory effects and secrete multiple paracrine factors that stimulate new proteoglycan and collagen synthesis by chondrocytes in vitro and by resident cells in the nucleus and annulus in vivo. MPCs have also been shown to produce anti-inflammation factors. Together these effects offer the potential to strengthen the load bearing function of the disc by increasing its water content, improving disc anatomy and stability, while also reducing inflammation and pain.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

In their latest ann., they cite various crap studies as a basis for their stem cell treatment.

"Moderate to severe disc degeneration as a cause of chronic low back pain occurs in over 3.2 million patients in the United States3 and approximately 4 million in Europe".

LBP is very common, but disc degenration does *not* cause LBP.  So the proposed MSB "treatment" is based upon bad research.

The truth is here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4464797/

"CONCLUSIONS
*Imaging findings of spine* *degeneration are present in high proportions of asymptomatic individuals*, increasing with age. Many imaging-based degenerative features are likely part of normal aging and *unassociated with pain*. These imaging findings must be interpreted in the context of the patient’s clinical condition".


Whether the SP rises or not, that's another matter.


----------



## Knobby22

So if the studies Mesoblast quote are rubbish and this study is correct then the population that this product can treat is likely much smaller than Mesoblast hint at. The product may help where inflammation is the main problem but reducing disc deteriation is probably pointless.

So what is the main cause of lower back pain?


----------



## Knobby22

Herniated  disc seems to always mentioned.

Overuse is mentioned as common but pain is short term.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Knobby22 said:


> So if the studies Mesoblast quote are rubbish and this study iscorrect then the population that this product can treat is likely much smaller than Mesoblast hint at. The product may help where inflammation is the main problem but reducing disc deteriation is probably pointless.
> 
> So what is the main cause of lower back pain?




The brain produces pain in every instance, whether it's a burn, cut, sprained ankle, broken bone or back pain. The brain is weighing a huge number of inputs in real time, and it ouputs 'pain', or 'no pain'.  It happens beyond our conscious awareness.  This is mainstream science; it's just that most healthcare professionals aren't aware of it yet.  And the public certainly isn't.

Tissue damage is only *one *of the inputs that the brain is measuring, and for tissue damage to end up as pain, it needs to be quite major.  Disc degeneration - even if severe - doesn't qualify as tissue damage.  It's more like 'wear and tear'.  The most powerful input for the brain's decision-making process is emotional stress, particularly if it's repressed.

10s of millions of people in the world have disc degeneration...yet, no symptoms.  So obviously it's not the singular cause of back pain.

All pain is inflammatory in nature.  And stress is known to be the most potent cause of inflammation.  Stress can cause severe inflammation even in the absence of any tissue damage (via the nervous system).

Research has shown stress reduction to be the single most powerful _natural_ analgesic.  If you were to compare a decent stress reduction event with a powerful opiate like Tramadol, stress reduction would win out easily.  But obviously stress reduction can be hard to achieve rapidly if the issue is big/tricky, and that's why people use medicines.  Nothing wrong with that.

Basically it's all about stress.  But for immediate relief, curcumin with black pepper is a potent anti-inflammatory.  Opiates are good too (short term use only).


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Knobby22 said:


> Herniated  disc seems to always mentioned.
> 
> Overuse is mentioned as common but pain is short term.



Overuse is easy to fix.  Just stop.  Next time use better posture with lifting, bending etc.  Pain goes away immediately.

Massive herniated discs can sometimes need surgery, but they can also heal themselves sometimes.  However, even when the disc doesn't heal (still showing on MRI), the pain usually disappears in about 80% of cases without any intervention.  What does that tell you!?  One day you have a disc bulge and pain; weeks later you have a disc bulge and no symptoms.  Happens all the time.


----------



## Knobby22

A raising at $2. 
I sold 1/3 of my shares and planned to buy them back at $1.60. Price wouldn't drop, now I know why.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Knobby22 said:


> A raising at $2.
> I sold 1/3 of my shares and planned to buy them back at $1.60. Price wouldn't drop, now I know why.



Fundamentals aside, $2 looks like a good entry point, if it trades there.  Bottom of the flag.


----------



## jjbinks

I was reading that trading was halted today for capital raising.

This might be followed by a price drop  vguess


----------



## Knobby22

Raising succeeded at $2.


----------



## Country Lad

Knobby22 said:


> Raising succeeded at $2.



I must be getting old and cranky.  I really dislike the convoluted announcements which are spruced up as marketing. Would have been much simpler to say:

_We placed 37.5 million new fully-paid ordinary shares at a price of A$2.00 to institutional investors.  
We will use the funds to build product inventory, hire salespeople in the US and to complete the current Phase 3 trials. end of statement.
_
Low of 192 recovered a bit to a tad under the $2 now which would be expected regardless of how they beefed up the announcement.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

A good result today given the CR and two days of steep losses on the Ords.  Seems there's a fair bit of support out there among investors.  But keep in mind...  https://simplifaster.com/articles/why-most-people-are-wrong-about-injuries-and-pain/


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Sandiego Pain Summit attracts a lot of the world's experts in pain.






Understanding and Treating Back Pain


----------



## Knobby22

My tip pick and picked by a few others I notice.
Phase 3 results coming out over the year so if the news is good, could be a big rerating.

Could be bad though.


----------



## UMike

A lot of this recent rise is beyond my simple understanding.

Been a long holder and accumulator but is it time to consider off loading these as the recent rise seems to be speculative.


----------



## qldfrog

Yes my buy on open was left behing in a cloud of smoke.. ahhh well


----------



## UMike

I told myself to Buy more when they did the Capital raising a few months ago. But was to busy.
Really unsure what to make of this recent rise though.


----------



## Knobby22

UMike said:


> I told myself to Buy more when they did the Capital raising a few months ago. But was to busy.
> Really unsure what to make of this recent rise though.




All depends on the phase 3 results. I am not selling personally and my holding is fairly large.


----------



## UMike

Up another 10% today.

Someone knows or is speculating they know.


----------



## Knobby22

My pick this month. 
Possibly of good news soon and also being looked at as a possible treatment to help survival from Conav19.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

*Melbourne, Australia; Thursday April 9, 2020; and New York, USA; Wednesday April 8, 2020:

*Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB; Nasdaq:MESO) today announced that its allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) product candidate remestemcel-L will be formally evaluated in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in 240 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by coronavirus infection (COVID-19).

This multi-center Phase 2/3 trial will be conducted as a public-private partnership in a collaboration with the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network (CTSN), which was established by the United States National Institutes of Health’s National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) as a flexible platform for conducting collaborative trials. Mesoblast holds an Investigational New Drug (IND) Application from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use of remestemcel-L in the treatment of patients with COVID-19 ARDS, and will provide investigational product for the trial.


----------



## SuperGlue

Boom up she goes.

83% SURVIVAL IN COVID-19 PATIENTS WITH MODERATE/SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME TREATED IN NEW YORK WITH MESOBLAST’S CELL THERAPY REMESTEMCEL-L

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200424/pdf/44h6wqsq3bmfb5.pdf


----------



## Knobby22

Also listed on Nasdaq, should be interesting tonight!


----------



## Purple XS2

Not having sufficient reserves for a long-term hold, I grabbed a modest bundle today, basically for short-term opportunism - on the theory that a strong showing for the MESO listing on NASDAQ tonight will put a bomb under the MSB on ASX.
At a time when every man and their monkey is cranking out ASX announcements about some COVID-19 related benefit of their product, today's announcement from Mesoblast - while not a double-blind "proper" clinical trial - nevertheless has the prospect of serious benefit.

Looks like @Knobby22 's persistence choice of MSB for the tip of the month is about to come home to roost!

Today's close: $2.73, up almost %40. Not bad for a company with a market cap of $1 billion (and that was before today - now about $1.4 billion).

Rgrds, P


----------



## Knobby22

Just need a Trump tweet.


----------



## datasum

Promising results the treatment has had so far but am I reading it correctly that there were only 12 participant patients in the trial? If so, that seems a very small number to base this huge explosion on. Is it "statistically significant"? Any stataticians here?


----------



## tech/a

Another disturbing line 

Patients received a variety of experimental agents prior to remestemcel-L.

So which one ?


----------



## SuperGlue

Purple XS2 said:


> on the theory that a strong showing for the MESO listing on NASDAQ tonight will put a bomb under the MSB on ASX.
> 
> Rgrds, P




Nasdaq - Meso
*$11.00*
 $4.59 +71.16%
Before Hours Volume: 15.7K

Previous Close: $6.45

Looking good. 
Volume now picking up as US wakes up :44.9k


----------



## SuperGlue

datasum said:


> Promising results the treatment has had so far but am I reading it correctly that there were only 12 participant patients in the trial? If so, that seems a very small number to base this huge explosion on. Is it "statistically significant"? Any stataticians here?




"remestemcel-L will be formally evaluated in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in *240 patients* with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by coronavirus infection (COVID-19)."

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200409/pdf/44gv4hd8fxcwc1.pdf

I'm no Statistician. That will be across 20 hospitals I assume.


----------



## qldfrog

SuperGlue said:


> "remestemcel-L will be formally evaluated in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in *240 patients* with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by coronavirus infection (COVID-19)."
> 
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200409/pdf/44gv4hd8fxcwc1.pdf
> 
> I'm no Statistician. That will be across 20 hospitals I assume.



Statistically these types of announcements are BS but the jump is real, good on @Knobby22 
As long as noone expects this to be the next csl, at least take some profit before the next bad news crashing it,or better observe the money flow of the people in the know


----------



## Knobby22

It isn't the next CSL but it is capable of being profitable soon.
The cell technology being used acts as an antiinflamatory like cortosoids. It is already selling in Japan as a pediatric treatment for kids unresponsive to cortosoids (acute graft host disease) and is being approved around the world.

The same treatment can be used in different medical fields hence the phase 3 trials for heart failure and lower back pain, results ecpected next few months.

At late stage Covid19 the immune response kills. It is logical this treatment will work. The anti malaria drug works a little the same way. I am quietly confident.
Obviously scientists think this is a goer hence the phase 2/3 trial being rolled out.
This could be approved fairly quickly and save a lot of lives.

However there are other similar cell cultures around and so big pharmaceutical companies can follow the MSB path and even CSL is doing so with acute graft host disease disease. The company is cash flow negative so a raising may occur at some stage.

Still I expect a bright future over the next few years.


----------



## Country Lad

Not a bad day on the NASDAQ, up over 200% at one stage.  The enthusiasm was expected over there as they are tending to look for a miracle cure (like Trump suggesting antiseptic injections), but the reaction is more than a little overdone.


----------



## Knobby22

Country Lad said:


> Not a bad day on the NASDAQ, up over 200% at one stage.  The enthusiasm was expected over there as they are tending to look for a miracle cure (like Trump suggesting antiseptic injections), but the reaction is more than a little overdone.
> 
> View attachment 102623



Nah, not yet.
I reckon Trump will talk it up, triple from here (fingers crossed). I want a 10 bagger.


----------



## qldfrog

Knobby22 said:


> It isn't the next CSL but it is capable of being profitable soon.
> The cell technology being used acts as an antiinflamatory like cortosoids. It is already selling in Japan as a pediatric treatment for kids unresponsive to cortosoids (acute graft host disease) and is being approved around the world.
> 
> The same treatment can be used in different medical fields hence the phase 3 trials for heart failure and lower back pain, results ecpected next few months.
> 
> At late stage Covid19 the immune response kills. It is logical this treatment will work. The anti malaria drug works a little the same way. I am quietly confident.
> Obviously scientists think this is a goer hence the phase 2/3 trial being rolled out.
> This could be approved fairly quickly and save a lot of lives.
> 
> However there are other similar cell cultures around and so big pharmaceutical companies can follow the MSB path and even CSL is doing so with acute graft host disease disease. The company is cash flow negative so a raising may occur at some stage.
> 
> Still I expect a bright future over the next few years.



my reply was just the covid19 reaction..not rational but who says the market is;
They may succeed on the ong term
Been in and out for so long, years, trouble is there is so much push and pump followed by raising I can not swallow it anymore, but for day trading why not


----------



## Knobby22

qldfrog said:


> my reply was just the covid19 reaction..not rational but who says the market is;
> They may succeed on the ong term
> Been in and out for so long, years, trouble is there is so much push and pump followed by raising I can not swallow it anymore, but for day trading why not



I think of it as long term investing with the eye to trading where the market overshoots.


----------



## Iggy_Pop

From MSB website - 
_Mesoblast is using its proprietary mesenchymal lineage cell technology platform to develop and commercialize innovative allogeneic cellular medicines to treat complex diseases where inflammation plays a central role and are resistant to conventional standard of care.

The Company’s broad portfolio of late-stage product candidates are:
_

_RYONCIL™ (remestemcel-L) for steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (acute GVHD) in children_
_REVASCOR® for advanced chronic heart failure_
_MPC-06-ID for chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease_
_Mesoblast’s Biologics License Application (BLA) for RYONCIL for the treatment of children with steroid-refractory acute GVHD has been accepted for priority review by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date of September 30, 2020, and if approved, Mesoblast will make RYONCIL immediately available in the United States.

Remestemcel-L is also being developed for rare diseases in adults and children. Additionally, Mesoblast has a promising emerging pipeline of Phase 2 product candidates and next generation technologies.
_
*On 24th April 2020  announcement from MSB - *
_Melbourne, Australia; April 24, 2020; and New York, USA; April 23, 2020: Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB; Nasdaq: MESO) today announced 83% survival in ventilator-dependent COVID-19 patients (10/12) with moderate/severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) treated during the period March-April 2020 with two intravenous infusions of Mesoblast’s allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell product candidate remestemcel-L within the first five days. 75% (9/12) have successfully come off ventilator support at a median of 10 days. At this time, seven have been discharged from the hospital. Patients received a variety of experimental agents prior to remestemcel-L. All patients were treated under an emergency Investigational New Drug (IND) application or expanded access protocol at New York City’s Mt Sinai hospital. In contrast, only 9% (38/445) of ventilator-dependent COVID-19 patients at a major referral hospital network in New York City were able to come off ventilator support when treated with standard of care during March/April 2020.1 Moreover, there was 88% mortality with only 12% survival (38/320) among ventilator-dependent COVID19 patients at a second major referral hospital network in New York City during the same period.2 These poor outcomes are consistent with earlier published data from China where mortality rates of over 80% were reported in patients with COVID-19 and moderate/severe ARDS.3 Mesoblast Chief Executive Dr Silviu Itescu stated: “The remarkable clinical outcomes in these critically ill patients continue to underscore the potential benefits of remestemcel-L as an anti-inflammatory agent in cytokine release syndromes associated with high mortality, including acute graft versus host disease and COVID-19 ARDS. We intend to rapidly complete the randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 2/3 trial in COVID-19 ARDS patients to rigorously confirm that remestemcel-L improves survival in these critically ill patients.” Mesoblast Chief Medical Officer Dr Fred Grossman said: “There is a significant need to improve the dismal survival outcomes in COVID-19 patients who progress to ARDS and require ventilators. We have implemented robust statistical analyses in our Phase 2/3 trial as recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in order to maximize our ability to evaluate whether remestemcel-L provides a survival benefit in moderate/severe COVID19 ARDS.”
_
Iggy


----------



## tech/a

Iggy_Pop said:


> From MSB website -
> _Mesoblast is using its proprietary mesenchymal lineage cell technology platform to develop and commercialize innovative allogeneic cellular medicines to treat complex diseases where inflammation plays a central role and are resistant to conventional standard of care.
> 
> The Company’s broad portfolio of late-stage product candidates are:
> _
> 
> _RYONCIL™ (remestemcel-L) for steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (acute GVHD) in children_
> _REVASCOR® for advanced chronic heart failure_
> _MPC-06-ID for chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease_
> _Mesoblast’s Biologics License Application (BLA) for RYONCIL for the treatment of children with steroid-refractory acute GVHD has been accepted for priority review by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date of September 30, 2020, and if approved, Mesoblast will make RYONCIL immediately available in the United States.
> 
> Remestemcel-L is also being developed for rare diseases in adults and children. Additionally, Mesoblast has a promising emerging pipeline of Phase 2 product candidates and next generation technologies.
> _
> *On 24th April 2020  announcement from MSB - *
> _Melbourne, Australia; April 24, 2020; and New York, USA; April 23, 2020: Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB; Nasdaq: MESO) today announced 83% survival in ventilator-dependent COVID-19 patients (10/12) with moderate/severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) treated during the period March-April 2020 with two intravenous infusions of Mesoblast’s allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell product candidate remestemcel-L within the first five days. 75% (9/12) have successfully come off ventilator support at a median of 10 days. At this time, seven have been discharged from the hospital. *Patients received a variety of experimental agents prior to remestemcel-L*. All patients were treated under an emergency Investigational New Drug (IND) application or expanded access protocol at New York City’s Mt Sinai hospital. In contrast, only 9% (38/445) of ventilator-dependent COVID-19 patients at a major referral hospital network in New York City were able to come off ventilator support when treated with standard of care during March/April 2020.1 Moreover, there was 88% mortality with only 12% survival (38/320) among ventilator-dependent COVID19 patients at a second major referral hospital network in New York City during the same period.2 These poor outcomes are consistent with earlier published data from China where mortality rates of over 80% were reported in patients with COVID-19 and moderate/severe ARDS.3 Mesoblast Chief Executive Dr Silviu Itescu stated: “The remarkable clinical outcomes in these critically ill patients continue to underscore the potential benefits of remestemcel-L as an anti-inflammatory agent in cytokine release syndromes associated with high mortality, including acute graft versus host disease and COVID-19 ARDS. We intend to rapidly complete the randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 2/3 trial in COVID-19 ARDS patients to rigorously confirm that remestemcel-L improves survival in these critically ill patients.” Mesoblast Chief Medical Officer Dr Fred Grossman said: “There is a significant need to improve the dismal survival outcomes in COVID-19 patients who progress to ARDS and require ventilators. We have implemented robust statistical analyses in our Phase 2/3 trial as recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in order to maximize our ability to evaluate whether remestemcel-L provides a survival benefit in moderate/severe COVID19 ARDS.”
> _
> Iggy




*People seem to have missed this line.
So which one had the effect?*


----------



## Knobby22

tech/a said:


> *People seem to have missed this line.
> So which one had the effect?*




They didn't work, hence this treatment which appeared to be very effective however the number of people was minimal.
It obviously made the clinicians stand up, hence, now we get a proper study.

There is science behind this treatment, unlike some others.


----------



## tech/a

Interesting.
So the responding time must be super quick for these "Others" 
Information is scant. *How quick can you tell ANY treatment is a success
or a failure.* Supposedly others didn't get it.
From what I understand once on a ventilator its 3-5 days winner
or likely loser.
I dont read it that way Knobby. It doesn't say that they didn't work
how do we know that they weren't synergistic?


----------



## Knobby22

This was a last resort option, heck this is an Aussie company with no Presidential influence.

Though the company knew this may work on the science getting someone to try it when you have little influence is difficult.

I would be surprised to see synergy knowing how it works. They tried a variety of treatments that failed before resorting to this.

This product saves little kids who have resistant to cortosoids. It is a related field with relation to inflammation.

We shall see.


----------



## tech/a

All good.
I hope its a winner.
I may need it!


----------



## Joules MM1

'free' advertising


----------



## UMike

Trading halt.
Better be good news.
??????


----------



## Knobby22

UMike said:


> Trading halt.
> Better be good news.
> ??????



Its an equity raising. So no.
We do have two phase 3 trials due to report and of course the coronavirus trial is ongoing but that won't be known till next month. The extra cash needed to fund the trial obviously has created the need for more cash. I was expecting this but thought they would do it later but probably smart to do it now.


----------



## UMike

Not doubting you but I haven't seen the Announcement.


----------



## Knobby22

UMike said:


> Not doubting you but I haven't seen the Announcement.



I read it on the Age/ SMH so hopefully they aren't bulldusting.


----------



## Knobby22

Raising at a good price, shows confidence and should remove the need for future raisings.

Decided to buy some more. $3.37.  will add about another 14% to my holding at a price well above my average price.


----------



## UMike

I got in really cheap and was sh1tty that I missed getting rid of it around the $4 mark.
Don't really need the cash atm so I guess $3.20 is a bit of a floor.

Might Hang on for a while.


----------



## Knobby22

My pick for next month.
Results out for Covid and I think at least one of the other 3 phase trials.
Raising completed so nothing to stop the rise (if it works).


----------



## barney

Knobby22 said:


> My pick for next month.
> Results out for Covid and I think at least one of the other 3 phase trials.
> Raising completed so nothing to stop the rise (if it works).




Lets hope it works
Lets hope you win the monthly comp and MSB goes to $10 bucks!!


----------



## UMike

Personally got out at $4.1

Still riding the super wave though.


----------



## Knobby22

It's taking off a bit early...leakage of results?


----------



## Austwide

Knobby22 said:


> It's taking off a bit early...leakage of results?



I think people are buying on rumour, watch closely on results day.


----------



## barney

Knobby22 said:


> It's taking off a bit early...leakage of results?




Certainly interesting to watch … Anything with positive connotations regarding Covid-19 is a possible time bomb price wise.

Based on the chart alone, I'd suggest $5 within a couple of days is a definite possibility … 

… we shall see.


----------



## Knobby22

Quarterly out, worth a read. A lot happening over the next 3 months. Very encouraging.


----------



## barney

Knobby22 said:


> Quarterly out, worth a read. A lot happening over the next 3 months. Very encouraging.




Its certainly an interesting Stock no doubt ..... i did buy a few last week but ended up selling the remainder today (at a small loss).  The recent strong rise is fantastic for longer term holders, but late comers like me will always have to deal with timing the momentum to get any real gain.

Not my normal style to buy in after moves so happy to stand aside ... In saying that, I have every confidence it will prove to be a great stock, so good luck Knobby and others


----------



## UMike

Knobby22 said:


> It's taking off a bit early...leakage of results?



 Well something happened at the close of trade today??????


----------



## UMike

Got out a couple of days ago.

Looking forward to getting back in.
Down 10%. Gambling really isn't it.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

there was a big "_but on the other hand" _write-up in the AFR over the weekend. Flattering to get the attention, but the pitfalls and challenges of serial cash calls, and failure to convert with big pharma, came across loud and strong:


> Entering the ASX/200 should be a moment of celebration for any biotech start-up. For Silvio Itescu, the multimillionaire founder and chief executive of stem cell group Mesoblast, it should be an even-greater triumph after a fourfold surge in the stock price spurred by an announcement that the company was assessing one of its drug candidates as a treatment for COVID-19 patients. On June 12, Mesoblast re-entered the ASX/200 as other healthcare companies Estia Health and Mayne Pharma dropped out.





> But it's been a roller-coaster ride and Itescu is still fending off critics. They say he is yet to prove the company's worth at over $2.3 billion, and note the regenerative medicine group is yet to produce a major commercial product despite raising over $1 billion in fresh equity since listing on the ASX in 2004 at just 50¢ per share. Long-time backers .... say Mesoblast is on the cusp of the next frontier in medicine. .....But critics ask why, if its prospects really are so good, some voracious pharma giant hasn't bought Mesoblast out or partnered with it after the better part of two decades plying its trade?....



https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20200611-p551m3



> Despite the big name support, the market is still split. Several analysts and fund managers say they lost interest after it failed to deliver on its "big promises" for many years.
> 
> "They have been just around the corner (from the next big breakthrough) for some time," says a portfolio manager. "Investors in this space do need to be patient. But good drugs don't tend to jump from indication to indication. I think Mesoblast started off in arthritis and now they're looking at COVID-19. They must've have tried at least ten indications.".....


----------



## UMike

UMike said:


> Got out a couple of days ago.
> 
> Looking forward to getting back in.
> Down 10%. Gambling really isn't it.



Was kicking myself a week or so ago for not getting back in at the low $4s as it got close to the high $5s

Down over 25% today. A top 200 Company. Strange times.


----------



## Knobby22

UMike said:


> Was kicking myself a week or so ago for not getting back in at the low $4s as it got close to the high $5s
> 
> Down over 25% today. A top 200 Company. Strange times.



Yes I was congratulating myself, up heaps then right back down to where it was in one day. Too many jumpy traders. I am trying to ignore the gyrations.


----------



## Purple XS2

Big drop today: closed at $3.36 (yesterday's close $4.87)

There seems to be much divided opinion about what the US regulators are actually going to grill Mesoblast about.
https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/...ent-for-bone-marrow-transplant-condition.html

At best it's a show - us - what - you - got, so - we - can - tick - it - off
at worst it's a not - good - enough, - go - back - and - do - it - again.

Market dump on open, before today's clarification announcement from MSB:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200811/pdf/44ldcp6hdr4tt4.pdf

Hmm, big dump before ann? Still a couple days ahead of next regulators meeting?
Now isn't that interesting?
Could it be insiders know the grilling will be hot?
Or just scaredy-cats spooked by each other?

Discl: Don't hold at present.
Discl: and that's only because Monday's price hit my happy-point, and I sold ($4.66)
Whew!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Purple XS2 said:


> Big drop today: closed at $3.36 (yesterday's close $4.87)
> 
> There seems to be much divided opinion about what the US regulators are actually going to grill Mesoblast about.
> https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/...ent-for-bone-marrow-transplant-condition.html
> 
> At best it's a show - us - what - you - got, so - we - can - tick - it - off
> at worst it's a not - good - enough, - go - back - and - do - it - again.
> 
> Market dump on open, before today's clarification announcement from MSB:
> 
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200811/pdf/44ldcp6hdr4tt4.pdf
> 
> Hmm, big dump before ann? Still a couple days ahead of next regulators meeting?
> Now isn't that interesting?
> Could it be insiders know the grilling will be hot?
> Or just scaredy-cats spooked by each other?
> 
> Discl: Don't hold at present.
> Discl: and that's only because Monday's price hit my happy-point, and I sold ($4.66)
> Whew!



Its always going to be a long haul when dealing with the FDA.

gg


----------



## qldfrog

In with system on monday out yesterday, loss of $700 or 16%
And this was selling on manual sl at 3.8
Outch


----------



## Miner

MSB is under trading halt
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200813/pdf/44lgy1xr5k6sv4.pdf
Meeting with Oncology Drug - after FDA's not very encouraging advise.
Could the cat is coming out of bag tomorrow  after market gone up by 10% today ?
Unloading not by a big amount if you see  1% , but read the volume - massive
- https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200812/pdf/44lf016py149pw.pdf
Fool presented this double edged story - head I win, tail you loose.
https://www.fool.com.au/2020/08/13/down-37-in-2-days-is-the-mesoblast-share-price-a-buy/


----------



## Knobby22

I don't get it.
The results are good. It is being used in Japan.
CSL and others are developing similar drugs based on similar technology.
It saves little kids.

If it's about delaying it so competors can catch up then it's disappointing.Will be very interested in this announcement.


----------



## wabullfrog

Passed the FDA ODAC. Vote was 8-2 in favour according to the article but have seen reported on HC that it was actually 9-1 as someone messed their vote up

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...gets-us-tick-of-approval-20200813-p55liw.html


----------



## qldfrog

wabullfrog said:


> Passed the FDA ODAC. Vote was 8-2 in favour according to the article but have seen reported on HC that it was actually 9-1 as someone messed their vote up
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...gets-us-tick-of-approval-20200813-p55liw.html



So expect up the roof today?
And what is up the roof after this week fall?


----------



## wabullfrog

qldfrog said:


> So expect up the roof today?
> And what is up the roof after this week fall?




I guess so, maybe on the chimney even, straight to $5 on open. 

Still has to get final FDA approval but from what I gather the FDA has never knocked back anything voted for by ODAC. Not many Stem Cell therapies seem to have been approved by the FDA so if it passes could be good news for other MSB Phase 3 Trials.


----------



## qldfrog

wabullfrog said:


> I guess so, maybe on the chimney even, straight to $5 on open.
> 
> Still has to get final FDA approval but from what I gather the FDA has never knocked back anything voted for by ODAC. Not many Stem Cell therapies seem to have been approved by the FDA so if it passes could be good news for other MSB Phase 3 Trials.



Yes i put a buy on open but did not want to go silly.this is not tesla yet
Order deleted


----------



## Miner

wabullfrog said:


> I guess so, maybe on the chimney even, straight to $5 on open.
> 
> Still has to get final FDA approval but from what I gather the FDA has never knocked back anything voted for by ODAC. Not many Stem Cell therapies seem to have been approved by the FDA so if it passes could be good news for other MSB Phase 3 Trials.



https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200814/pdf/44lhlqglc3y569.pdf
@wabullfrog  You were very close to expectation on going through roof . It went up by 40%. More analysis and buying would consolidated the price I believe. Just bought couple of days back and not complaining some astute gamble  . 
No BS, it was a gamble and did not put money excessively either thinking the result could have gone south.


----------



## wabullfrog

Miner said:


> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200814/pdf/44lhlqglc3y569.pdf
> @wabullfrog  You were very close to expectation on going through roof . It went up by 40%. More analysis and buying would consolidated the price I believe. Just bought couple of days back and not complaining some astute gamble  .
> No BS, it was a gamble and did not put money excessively either thinking the result could have gone south.
> View attachment 107554




@Miner I did similar. Wednesday buy, small parcel, near the bottom.


----------



## qldfrog

wabullfrog said:


> @Miner I did similar. Wednesday buy, small parcel, near the bottom.



And i sold at 3.8 as per my system..can not win every day


----------



## Knobby22

My tip for the month.
I know it has risen to $5.28 and we still have a month to go to get the results from the various trials but it has formed a base and is ready for the next leap forward, hopefully to $8. We know the price can often rise in anticipation.


----------



## Malown1

I've been holding MSB for 10 years or more, and have seen rises to $9 mark, then big falls as they listed on US market. I did what Knobby22 says:


Knobby22 said:


> I am trying to ignore the gyrations.




I was lucky enough to double up holdings when Covid crash reduced them to mid $1 range.
I truly hope that youre correct Knobby22:


Knobby22 said:


> and is ready for the next leap forward, hopefully to $8.



To me it would be reward for a long held hope! 
(Next the Dockers would win the Premiership too!!) ROFL.


----------



## Knobby22

Some good news. Interim results for Covid 19 phase 3 trials were such that the regulator recommend they continue.
We will get final results 4th quarter.


----------



## hardeepsoni

Is MSB a good bet right now considering it has ethics approval to treat COVID-19 patients in Aus?


----------



## Knobby22

hardeepsoni said:


> Is MSB a good bet right now considering it has ethics approval to treat COVID-19 patients in Aus?



There is a whole thread on MSB, worth a look.


----------



## SuperGlue

MSB up 8.15% currently.


Market waiting for approval from FDA?


----------



## Knobby22

My pick again this month. 
It is trying to take off. Ended flat today on a down day. Announcements galore next month.


----------



## qldfrog

trading halt..yeap bought yesterday and will join the suckers roll...


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> trading halt..yeap bought yesterday and will join the suckers roll...



@Knobby22  you see i nearly trusted your views on that one


----------



## qldfrog

To put into perspective:
2006..14y ago:
First post on thread $unny bought at 56c...

Thanks God we got the dividends ;-)


----------



## Knobby22

qldfrog said:


> To put into perspective:
> 2006..14y ago:
> First post on thread $unny bought at 56c...
> 
> Thanks God we got the dividends ;-)



It takes a long time for biotechs to get there and if they are cash flow negative it can be a long road.

Biotechs aren't mining stocks, they take time to mature. You need to time them but they can be rewarding. CSL has been a 50 bagger for me.  This one has been very profitable. And 3 phase 3 trial results due soon not to mention the covid opportunity.

Polynovo 5 times, Star Pharma is going to be great.

Get that with a bank.


----------



## Knobby22

Read won't know till Monday which is  my birthday. An approval on ryoncil would be a good present!


----------



## wabullfrog

Gonna get smashed today



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02289059-5IPV6GB6JO7HFMK0GURT6KQILF/pdf?access_token=1rqJGOaPhgWJcAxRekKGTZldcLOf
		




> Melbourne, Australia; October 2, 2020 and New York, USA; October 1, 2020:Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB; Nasdaq:MESO), global leader in allogeneic cellular medicines for inflammatory diseases, announced today that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued a Complete Response Letter to its Biologics License Application (BLA) for remestemcel-L for the treatment of pediatric steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGVHD). While the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC)1 of the FDA voted 9:1 that the available data support the efficacy of remestemcel-L in pediatric patients with SR-aGVHD, the FDA recommended that Mesoblast conduct at least one additional randomized, controlled study in adults and/or children to provide further evidence of the effectiveness of remestemcel-L for SR-aGVHD.  As there are currently no approved treatments for this life-threatening condition in children under 12, Mesoblast will urgently request a Type A meeting with the FDA, expected within 30 days, to discuss a   potential accelerated approval with a post-approval condition for    an addit  ional study.


----------



## lucifuge1968

wabullfrog said:


> Gonna get smashed today
> 
> 
> 
> https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02289059-5IPV6GB6JO7HFMK0GURT6KQILF/pdf?access_token=1rqJGOaPhgWJcAxRekKGTZldcLOf



yep. important to remember it hasn't failed, it just hasn't passed today.


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## Knobby22

lucifuge1968 said:


> yep. important to remember it hasn't failed, it just hasn't passed today.



Ouch. I'm down heaps at present.
They have ignored the recommendation and want a randomized trial. The whole thing is delayed.
Damn.  That hurt. I thought the evidence was pretty strong that it saved kids lives. Japan have been using it for a few years now.
How long to get back on track now?


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## qldfrog

I just lost 4k...in 1 day :-(


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## Knobby22

qldfrog said:


> I just lost 4k...in 1 day :-(



I'm down 22k if that helps you feel better .


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## qldfrog

Knobby22 said:


> I'm down 22k if that helps you feel better .



not really, I disagree you vs Covid, but do not hate you


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## lucifuge1968

if you didn't sell, you haven't lost


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## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> not really, I disagree you vs Covid, but do not hate you



my pain is more acute as i put 10k on Wednesday and lost it today, the abruptness is hard to swallow.
I basically like that company product, innovation but it keeps slamming me: 
Previous experiences were via systems so easier to swallow but still:
these are the last year MSB plays:
8k in all, inc 4k loss today (not sold so not realised yet)

 systems entry

11/08/2020mesoblast10/08/2020​1101​4.5​10​4964.5​$3.810​10​$4,184.81​-$779.690​-16%​

MSB29/06/2020mesoblast22/06/2020​1100​4​10​$ 4,410.00$ 3.25$ 10.00$ 3,565.00-$ 845.00-19.16%​

MSB11/11/2019​mesoblast16/09/2019​2522​2.17​10​5482.74​1.79​10​4504.38​-978.36​-17.84%​-26.05%​

MSB16/03/2020​mesoblast23/12/2019​2718​2.01​10​5473.18​1.44​10​3903.92​-1569.26​-28.67%​
In a nutshell that stock managed to loose me 8k in both systemic and not trades;
Can I add it is now *blacklisted *in my systems


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## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> my pain is more acute as i put 10k on Wednesday and lost it today, the abruptness is hard to swallow.
> I basically like that company product, innovation but it keeps slamming me:
> Previous experiences were via systems so easier to swallow but still:
> these are the last year MSB plays:
> 8k in all, inc 4k loss today (not sold so not realised yet)
> 
> systems entry
> 
> 11/08/2020mesoblast10/08/2020​1101​4.5​10​4964.5​$3.810​10​$4,184.81​-$779.690​-16%​
> 
> MSB29/06/2020mesoblast22/06/2020​1100​4​10​$ 4,410.00$ 3.25$ 10.00$ 3,565.00-$ 845.00-19.16%​
> 
> MSB11/11/2019​mesoblast16/09/2019​2522​2.17​10​5482.74​1.79​10​4504.38​-978.36​-17.84%​-26.05%​
> 
> MSB16/03/2020​mesoblast23/12/2019​2718​2.01​10​5473.18​1.44​10​3903.92​-1569.26​-28.67%​
> In a nutshell that stock managed to loose me 8k in both systemic and not trades;
> Can I add it is now *blacklisted *in my systems



Scary mate. I don't have anything to say that could help, but I have also had a fair bit of misfortune with Biotech companies over the years


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Scary mate. I don't have anything to say that could help, but I have also had a fair bit of misfortune with Biotech companies over the years



Trouble is half of the losses were within systems.msb going thru all filters as a decent candidate.price, volume etc...
I believe it is heavily manipulated...


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## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> Trouble is half of the losses were within systems.msb going thru all filters as a decent candidate.price, volume etc...
> I believe it is heavily manipulated...




Could be. Looking at the recent price history, traders like myself could have been trapped and kicked out a number of times...







and earlier...






So if systems are designed in such a way to mimic trader behaviour, I can understand why they may have failed on this stock. I know I would have failed trading this stock, as I have with many other Biotech stocks in the past as I have mentioned.

Only occasionally you can be lucky to get in and ride a megatrend in these volatile stocks IMO.


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## over9k

Might be worth looking into why it didn't pass today. A rejection and a rejection of fundamental/concept is a different thing. 

They might have just told them to go off and tweak XYZ and come back. Would be worth looking into.


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Could be. Looking at the recent price history, traders like myself could have been trapped and kicked out a number of times...
> 
> View attachment 112531
> 
> 
> and earlier...
> 
> View attachment 112533
> 
> 
> So if systems are designed in such a way to mimic trader behaviour, I can understand why they may have failed on this stock. I know I would have failed trading this stock, as I have with many other Biotech stocks in the past as I have mentioned.
> 
> Only occasionally you can be lucky to get in and ride a megatrend in these volatile stocks IMO.



indeed ..my systems were finding all the right ticks and then got slammed.only way out would be to exclude biotechs from universe..


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## lucifuge1968

over9k said:


> Might be worth looking into why it didn't pass today. ......They might have just told them to go off and tweak XYZ and come back. Would be worth looking into.




But this is EXACTLY what happened. It didn't fail as such, they want them to run another trial for confirmatory purposes. Also, they have other products in train. IMHO it's been oversold.


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## Knobby22

lucifuge1968 said:


> But this is EXACTLY what happened. It didn't fail as such, they want them to run another trial for confirmatory purposes. Also, they have other products in train. IMHO it's been oversold.




I saw that RBC capital has set a price target of $12. Are they pumping or is it real analysis? I have lost a bit of confidence which probably means we are at a low point for the present as emotions rule in the sharemarket.


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## aus_trader

Knobby22 said:


> I saw that RBC capital has set a price target of $12. Are they pumping or is it real analysis? I have lost a bit of confidence which probably means we are at a low point for the present as emotions rule in the sharemarket.



They must be under water and want to go back to surface to get a breath of fresh air and get out.


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## Knobby22

Phase 3 trials (back/heart) now not being completed till the 4th quarter.


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## Knobby22

Deal with Novartis which is pretty good to see. 
Sold 11%  of my holding at $3.72 for profit as I have so many and this company is stressful.


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## Knobby22

Look at tat caveman go. Back near $5. Chairmans' address went well.


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## Miner

good mornings
Any comments on MSB failures and prices collapse. It has been a roller coaster trading stock imo .
Thanks


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## Knobby22

Miner said:


> good mornings
> Any comments on MSB failures and prices collapse. It has been a roller coaster trading stock imo .
> Thanks




Yes, had enough, sold most of my shares this morning.


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## qldfrog

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, had enough, sold most of my shares this morning.



Bought at 5 ish sold at 3.5 within a week ..now blacklisted at qldfrog


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## Roller_1

i bought at the open on Wednesday, then straight into the halt, nek minnet (2 days later) 35% gap wtf.


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## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> Bought at 5 ish sold at 3.5 within a week ..now blacklisted at qldfrog



Just have to add that this repeated itself again and again in the last 5y, never so quickly but most often at a loss, ramp crash dilution, no thanks.i really really liked the idea but enough ..


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## lucifuge1968

I had to dump it today. Way too volatile a stock for me. Prefer money in other ventures.


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## Trav.

lucifuge1968 said:


> I had to dump it today. Way too volatile a stock for me. Prefer money in other ventures.




I agree, but if you are trading intraday then this stock would be a gold mine. Nick below is a very successful trader is always willing to share his trades for the masses but this style is not for me at the moment.


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## Miner

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/01/08/...-price-could-be-facing-more-pressure-in-2021/


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## Dona Ferentes

Drug development company Mesoblast could be unable to continue as a going concern if it cannot successfully raise capital before the end of this week, auditors from PwC warn.



> In their review of Mesoblast’s interim results – released at 7pm on Friday night – the auditors say “material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the group’s ability to continue as a going concern”.


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## Miner

Dona Ferentes said:


> Drug development company Mesoblast could be unable to continue as a going concern if it cannot successfully raise capital before the end of this week, auditors from PwC warn.



It is probably true seeing the annual report after trading halt and material transaction to be disclosed on 2nd March ..
With many others it will blow my investment as well


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## jbocker

Did not like the read in that report. Mesyblast.


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## aus_trader

Looks like a few companies going into financial trouble !

This one which could be considered big based on Market Cap and recently another spec OLI which is suspended having run out of money  
In the process we get sliced up being the shareholders


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Looks like a few companies going into financial trouble !
> 
> This one which could be considered big based on Market Cap and recently another spec OLI which is suspended having run out of money
> In the process we get sliced up being the shareholders



Was supposed to be blacklisted for me since late last year. none of my systems sneaked it in.did check..
That company has already burnt enough of my money.🙁


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## qldfrog

@Knobby22 hope you did not give in and bought back in.one of your pet stock but i believe we can agree : great idea.concept but not a great company


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## Knobby22

qldfrog said:


> @Knobby22 hope you did not give in and bought back in.one of your pet stock but i believe we can agree : great idea.concept but not a great company



I did buy a few back in early February at $2.69. Liked the fact the back pain therapy worked.
Own much less than I used to. Still think its worth keeping an eye on but its a biotech so you have to be nimble.
Some investor is going to buy in and probably get part of the company for a steal. Hopefully a US investor who can finally get these approvals happening. 

Also still waiting for an SPL product to be approved despite the fact that every other country in the world has already approved it.


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## UMike

Knobby22 said:


> ....... Still think its worth keeping an eye on but its a biotech so you have to be nimble.
> ......



Bought back in at 2.25.

Totally agree with the nimble statement.

Not a long term thing just a bit of opportunistic punting.


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## UMike

Mesoblast has entered into a license and collaboration agreement with Novartis for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of remestemcel-L, with an initial focus on the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), including that associated with COVID-19. The agreement remains subject to certain closing conditions, including time to analyze the results from this COVID-19 ARDS trial

Enough to have a punt in the tipping comp.

Have an unfulfilled buy order at 1.865.
I expect it to remain unfulfilled and make me suffer as it climbs back of the canvas.


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## qldfrog

UMike said:


> Mesoblast has entered into a license and collaboration agreement with Novartis for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of remestemcel-L, with an initial focus on the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), including that associated with COVID-19. The agreement remains subject to certain closing conditions, including time to analyze the results from this COVID-19 ARDS trial
> 
> Enough to have a punt in the tipping comp.
> 
> Have an unfulfilled buy order at 1.865.
> I expect it to remain unfulfilled and make me suffer as it climbs back of the canvas.



But you will suffer less when it will fall 30% in a day or 2 ,afer some bad news or the next SPP...


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## SuperGlue

UMike said:


> Mesoblast has entered into a license and collaboration agreement with Novartis for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of remestemcel-L, with an initial focus on the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), including that associated with COVID-19. The agreement remains subject to certain closing conditions, including time to analyze the results from this COVID-19 ARDS trial
> 
> Enough to have a punt in the tipping comp.
> 
> Have an unfulfilled buy order at 1.865.
> I expect it to remain unfulfilled and make me suffer as it climbs back of the canvas.




Is something stirring up this sleeping-little giant this morning?

Please DYOR.


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## UMike

One month on and the "Giant" seems to be stumbling with the latest Annual Financial Results and Operational Progress ....,

Did seem to be to much in it that surprised but it disappointed enough to see this latest drop. Expect it to recover somewhat to pick it in the Sept Comp.


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## greggles

One of the most brutal, terrifying 20 month market roller coaster rides I've ever seen.


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## Knobby22

It has a lot of irons in the fire but a lot of competition also. The company had a chance to get profitable and save a lot of kids but the recommendations to approve were ignored. Other companies based in the USA are in the space and may get ahead.
I am just keeping a very small holding now just to keep my eye on it. They still could succeed e.g. with the back treatment or the covid treatment really big but its getting trickier.


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## UMike

Country Lad said:


> *Re: MSB - Mesoblast*
> MSB has no income and is really a high priced biotech spekkie and I treat it as such.  The trick will be to be in it for the longer term at the right time when the products are confirmed as ready to be commercialised.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad



While I agree with most of this I am having a speccy in the Tipping thread.

Bit like tipping a bottom team for a win. But when it does it's usually a big one.


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## Country Lad

Country Lad said:


> *Re: MSB - Mesoblast*
> 
> MSB has no income and is really a high priced biotech spekkie and I treat it as such.  The trick will be to be in it for the longer term at the right time when the products are confirmed as ready to be commercialised.



Ha ha, that quote was 8 years ago @UMike and they now has a whole $7.4 mil income.  Unfortunately this needs to be taken in the context of  the $100 mil loss, so the quote is probably still valid.


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## UMike

Tipped it again for the November comp.

Bit like tipping a bottom team for a win. But when it does it's usually a big one.


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## Dona Ferentes

Yadda yadda, Novartis terminates, yadda still got our phase III  yadda stems sell yadda. Down 17% .

And


> For the September quarter Mesoblast reported a net loss of $US22.6 million, with cash on hand of $US116 million. It has accumulated losses of $US647.6 million since inception.




_That's a bill in local money_


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## qldfrog

Dona Ferentes said:


> Yadda yadda, Novartis terminates, yadda still got our phase III  yadda stems sell yadda. Down 17% .
> 
> And
> 
> 
> _That's a bill in local money_



I paid part of it!!!Aussie Aussie Aussie oi oi oi
I should join a club with @Knobby22 ; 
Proud supporters of Aussie research, of Caraibes lsland mansions for executives
But I am sure if you persist.......
Note: I do not hold and never again mantra, just following the thread in case they change name
anyone detecting bitterness might be wrong


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## Knobby22

MSB is my pick. No one else has picked it, a very good sign.
A bit over a year ago I thought that I was going to win the yearly comp and mostly pay my house off - too greedy, ended handing most of it back. But - back treatment is exciting, kids phase 3 going ahead at last. It's risky but you have to pick a company that has a reasonable chance of doubling to win this comp.


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## UMike

MSB is my pick. FEB.
This time it is my chance to ride the Spec train.

Institutional investors paid $2.3 not so long ago so the potential is there...... So to is the risk.


----------

