# A Different Form of Trading



## kermit345 (25 July 2012)

Hi All,

I've been reading the forum quite a bit lately but haven't posted much besides the odd comment here and there. Markets have just been too frustrating for me in more recent times and i've been concentrating on a few others things (Work/Life) so therefore haven't been able to contribute much to a lot of the discussion.

However something i've also been working on is approaches to gambling (i.e. sports and racing betting). Majority of you probably find this hilarious but I figured i'd post here as some people may be intrigued and I might get some quality input from people. First i'll give some background as to what i've done and then some detail on what im looking to find/achieve in this forum.

Over the past 2-3 months i've developed on excel spreadsheet that allows me to complete my own ratings on Australian horse races, essentially providing in my view who I think the favourites are etc etc. Basically i've refined this over time and found a way to bet on Australian horse racing profitably. However unlike most gamblers i've also approached this with a share traders mindset as well looking for the best risk/reward combination and always searching for value (betting on horses at high odds when my system rates them as a top chance - going against the crowd somewhat).

I've used share trading statistics that i've found in a Tech/a thread from ages ago to help gauge how my betting approach is going. The following is an output I posted on a horse betting forum some weeks ago (it's actually more up-to-date now but as i'm not home I cant post currently but will tonight).




As you can see its doing quite well, but I was curious as to what other statistics, charts etc people would look at to understand how healthy the system actually is. Over the last few nights i've added charts showing the maximum drawdown on my bankroll and also how many bets have been x standard deviations away from my mean to see if outliers are carrying the bulk of my profits (and hence the system isn't actually that good).

All questions, comments are welcome. Hopefully this thread doesn't get closed down as i'm trying to take a traders approach to the betting of the system and I legitimately think a share traders mindset can be applied, and very well i'll add.

So any comments and suggestions about statistics or charts that I may be missing to help me gauge and monitor the health of my trading (betting) wold be greatly apprecaited.

Cheers


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## prawn_86 (25 July 2012)

Some very impressive stats there Kermit, feel free to start an ASF betting syndicate 

Seriously though, i think you probably have it covered stats wise, and depnding what you intend to do with this you could take out some funds/profits out now and let the system run just building profit

Are these trades automated or do you place them yourself? Is it just betting on win/places or various other bet options?


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## barney (25 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Majority of you probably find this hilarious
> 
> ...





Hi Kermit, I don't punt on the ponies anymore, but those statistics are definitely no laughing matter

If you are able to produce results even half that good over an extended period, your system could be worth its weight in gold.

If you are able to keep the results anything like the current ones for any length of time ...... one word springs to mind ...... "compounding"   ....... you could end up owning the local race club


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## kermit345 (25 July 2012)

Hi guys,

Thanks for the kind words, me and a friend are placing the bets manually at the moment based on whether the spreadsheet tells us to bet or not. I expect the results to become a bit more realistic over the long-term as I really don't think the current results can be sustained, but if they are then i'll be more than happy to take the ride.

prawn - this is based on win bets only on my top rated horse which through monitoring various other stats i've found can even be bet profitably without any additional filters. The system I use has some filters in place to improve the results (i.e. Slow/Heavy tracks show poor results, Thursdays seem to do poorly and country QLD races seem to perform poorly). I've found that my top 5 rated horses win approx 77% of the time which is pretty much spot on with the top 5 favourites from any race are expected to win this amount. The advantage my system has is that my top 5 may not be favourites and hence im hitting the same amount of winners as favourites but achieving better results through greater odds.

Anyhow thats the betting side of it. I'll be home on my lunch break in an hour, i'll post up-to-date results and the max-drawdown / Standard Deviation charts for those interested.

By the way the max drawdown so far is 18% based on betting 2% units of my bankroll, I assume this is quite good in comparison to share trading max drawdowns?


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## CanOz (25 July 2012)

Very interesting Kermit...I've had discussions with my old mates back in Australia before about the horses and how we might apply some money management to a system. Well you've done it so far....

CanOz


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## kid hustlr (25 July 2012)

Looks very interesting


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## kermit345 (25 July 2012)

As promised. Updated stats and charts:




The following charts are in the following order:
1) Bankroll
2) Max Drawdown
3) Standard Deviation Measurements


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## CanOz (25 July 2012)

Even got a scatter gram, well done. Nice work on the stats Kermit!


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## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

Thats a beautiful scatter chart.


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## sinner (25 July 2012)

Good stuff kermit, there is a lot of scientific work which backs up your findings! 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias


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## kermit345 (25 July 2012)

haha I added the scatter chart last night as I was concerned that my outlier bets were not showing the true picture of how it performs, but I think its shown that while there are some outliers the majority of my winners are around the mean or within 1 standard deviation which means my stats shouldn't be overly optimistic.

Thanks for the interest guys, I didn't think many here would be interested haha. As i've said if you have any suggestions on other charts etc I could include please let me know. I'm thinking of building a spreadsheet for others to use for their betting as a lot of the guys were impressed and hadn't seen the kind of stats I was showing before.

Sinner - what made it click about a month or so ago for me was reading the following article. It's regarding a guy called Allan Woods who made millions betting on horses in Japan based on finding value (i.e. horse is at $5 odds but his research shows its a $2.50 prospect). He then adjusted his staking size depending on how big this value was (overlay's and underlay's). He had a full team who analysed a lot more aspects then what my little spreadsheet can do, but its basically the same idea. You may find it an interesting read:

Alan Woods - http://www.tonywilson.com.au/writing/alanwoods.php 

Some of you may be surprised how much horse betting can correlate with technical analysis. There are programs that can be fully automated (much like share trading) to bet on horses based on the same indicators as share trading. Also the same as shares, you can back or lay (long or short) a horse to win on a price going up or down. I could find more detail if anyone is interested.


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## sinner (25 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> Sinner - what made it click about a month or so ago for me was reading the following article. It's regarding a guy called Allan Woods who made millions betting on horses in Japan based on finding value (i.e. horse is at $5 odds but his research shows its a $2.50 prospect). He then adjusted his staking size depending on how big this value was (overlay's and underlay's). He had a full team who analysed a lot more aspects then what my little spreadsheet can do, but its basically the same idea. You may find it an interesting read:
> 
> Alan Woods - http://www.tonywilson.com.au/writing/alanwoods.php




Totally dig it. Here's one for you as thanks for your link

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1420356



> Some of you may be surprised how much horse betting can correlate with technical analysis.




Not me!


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## jancha (25 July 2012)

Thats a very good win strike rate 44%. Do you do your own rating and are your bets fixed price and if so what is your cut off betting eg 5/1?
I often look at the 100 raters at odds with good results sometimes especially with multiple betting.


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## prawn_86 (25 July 2012)

Slightly off topic, but another good 'system' is that of tennis multi's. I have not actually tested it with stats etc, but loading up on multi's (say 5 - 8) matches and always picking the favourite in each match, seems to bring in more $ won than $ lost. It does suffer from large drawdown periods though as the majority of bets are losers


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## kermit345 (25 July 2012)

jancha - the ratings are done myself and are fully automated through excel using web queries. So basically I put in the date, venue, race no. and hit submit and my spreadsheet spits out my ratings and if/what to bet. The tracking of my bets is using Unitab odds, but if you were to place with Betfair or a website that offers the 'best of all totes' type service then the results would be even better then what i've provided. I have no limit on the odds I take as if my system says to bet on a horse (i.e. I rate it highly) but the odds are $10-1 that is a perfect scenario as i'm getting massive value on something i rate highly compared to the public. It's a bit like buying a stock at $4.00 that may potentially reach $5.00, but the market (public) think its already fully priced at $4.00 - i'm achieving that value gap.

prawn_86 - I haven't played much with tennis multi's although I have heard it can be done successfully. I've gradually became less and less interested in multi betting and exotics - the returns seems to be great but the risks become out of control quite quickly. In the previous NBA and NHL seasons in America I experimented with using various statistics for those sports to help me decide on if/when to make particular bets. It worked to some extent but not quite as well as i'd hoped and was quite labour intensive (not automated). I'm hoping that for the seasons coming up I can get some automated spreadsheets in place and give it another shot. I believe that following statistics can give you an edge against the general public if your selective in where you decide to exert that edge - it isn't available in all games and sports betting requires a LOT of discipline, often its too easy to waste $10 here and $5 there and before you know it your bankroll has dwindled to nothing because you haven't followed your own systems.

sinner - Thanks a lot for that link, had a quick browse at work but looks quite long so didn't get a chance to read in depth. I was lucky enough to have the opportunity through work to listen to Ken French speak regarding market returns and using value/small caps to achieve superior returns to the index. He went into a lot more depth regarding all of it but also explained it in a way that really opened my eyes. The thing that still sticks with me today is that it takes approximately 65 years of outperformance by an individual (i.e. fund manager) before they are considered to be able to beat the market regularly. There was an equation that Fama/French used to back this up not that I can remember it now, but basically this means there are a handful of people worldwide who can claim to beat the market as stock pickers regularly. The research Fama/French have conducted and what was put infront of me at his presentation was amazing, made me feel comfortable with my approach of value investing.

Note he was more talking about fund managers vs the market, not really individuals trying to beat the market.


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## JLM Financial (25 July 2012)

A large number of my clients have used expert advisers in the past.  Like any automated system they will only work for a certain period of time.  Once any market inefficiencies are realised they are quickly corrected.
Our firm uses a combination of fundamental and technical analysis for our recommendations.


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## CanOz (25 July 2012)

JLM Financial said:


> A large number of my clients have used expert advisers in the past.  Like any automated system they will only work for a certain period of time.  Once any market inefficiencies are realised they are quickly corrected.
> Our firm uses a combination of fundamental and technical analysis for our recommendations.




Mate, they're talking about horses....:horse:

If you would like to advertise here, i suggest you contact the administrator, otherwise post something of value.

CanOz


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## craft (25 July 2012)

Hi Kermit 

Nice stats.

Systematic betting certainly seems to have worked for Zeljko Ranogajec and David Walsh.
Have you been following the court case re tax on betting when conducted in a business like manner? 
How are you going to approach the tax issue?


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## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Mate, they're talking about horses....:horse:




Nice use of the smilies.


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## peter2 (25 July 2012)

This post is a bit late due to the fact that those results just blew me away. It's taken a while to put the pieces back together.
Did I read it correctly, W% 41% with average odds $8. Results like this are fantastic and much too good to last. 
The W% is too high for one bet/race and the average odds are too high for multiple bets/race. 

Press your luck while the edge lasts, as I know it won't.


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## tech/a (25 July 2012)

Pete I'm still looking at it.

What's the bet size?
What's your capital required?
I note a lot of what seems to be $20 ish losses
And some great $300 ish wins that's 15:1
With an expectancy of over $23 for each $ risked--- WOW.


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## wayneL (25 July 2012)

I used to punt semi-professionally before I became a full time trader (which I did out of circumstance more than anything).

It taught me all the stuff about expectancy and prepared me to become profitable in the markets striaght off the bat.

Now-a-days I'm looking to punt a bit, semi-professionally.... or just for fun really, again so a timely post.

As far as systems not lasting, racing is different IMO as being able to successfully rate horses and look for odds anomalies is more akin to market making or a sort of risk arbitrage.

Again IMO, as long as one has the ability to rate horses properly (a skill), one can always make a buck.

I know guys who've done it long term (admittedly with up and downs) and it has continued to work over decades.

FWIW


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## skc (25 July 2012)

How scalable is this? If you grow your account and start betting $5k on a 20-1 horse, do you move the market?

Regardless, your approach looks fantastic and it is something all serious traders or gamblers should aim for. Great stuff.


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## kermit345 (25 July 2012)

craft - Haven't been following the court case but I only do this for a bit of fun, at the moment I don't have plans to make a living from it but if I somehow got to that stage I guess i'd cross that hurdle when I got to it. Its hard enough for people to make a living from sports betting given the cuts that agencies take before the pools are even formed so its a bit harsh to start slapping them with tax as well.

peter2 - I'm more then aware that it can't last in its current format, but even if it gets down to producing a stead 40%+ POT over the long-term i'd be more than happy. I'll update this thread from time to time so people can see if the Strike Rate or Odds decline over the long-term. I'd expect that the strike rate might normalise to around the 30-35% mark, but I expect the odds to remain at maybe the $7-8 mark as the purpose of my system is to get value on higher odds.

tech/a - Average bet size is currently $14.82, with the charts/stats i've posted its based on a $10 betting unit and then adjust the staking depending on the 'value' that my spreadsheet finds. The more value in the odds, the more I bet as re-iterated by the article I linked to earlier in this thread of the interview with Alan Woods. This is the approach he used to maximise gains on the biggest value where the public wasn't betting. It worked for him and seems to be working for me. Capital required can be whatever the person betting wishes to make their bankroll. Most agencies accept $1 bets now, so you could even start my system with $50 and go from there. As I said the max drawdown so far is 18% so you have a lot of room to move thus far. haha your right, expectancy is amazing at the moment, I don't see it lasting that high but can imagine it still being quite good as horse racing can be lucrative if you can get it right.

WayneL - If I did it for a day job i'm sure I could improve my spreadsheet ten-fold. But in its current simple form it seems to be doing the job so far. Will be interesting to see how it goes in the upcoming spring carnival as it seems to perform best on Good/Dead tracks. So once were finished with winter im hoping it starts to perform with steady profits again.

skc - that is one issue, there are people on the forums where I post and read who do this professionally. Some with betting bots that run 24/7, others who simply get up in the morning and work it like a 9-5 day. Most of these people have been banned from a number of betting agencies and sites. So betting that amount of money may be a struggle but it could probably still be worked one way or another.


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## wayneL (25 July 2012)

skc said:


> How scalable is this? If you grow your account and start betting $5k on a 20-1 horse, do you move the market?
> 
> Regardless, your approach looks fantastic and it is something all serious traders or gamblers should aim for. Great stuff.




You'll move the market on the tote for sure.... unless the pool is very large. It would be a drop in the ocean in a Melbourne Cup market. In some markets your kid's lunch money would bring it in several points.

If you're betting size, go with the bookies.


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## jersey10 (25 July 2012)

Wow Kermit - great system.  I suspect if i had stats like that i would be stacking my bankroll and betting a lot bigger right now.  Why aren't you?


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## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

jersey10 said:


> Wow Kermit - great system.  I suspect if i had stats like that i would be stacking my bankroll and betting a lot bigger right now.  Why aren't you?




Exactly. Role it out and hit'em.


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## So_Cynical (25 July 2012)

Nice Kermit.

As a punter from way back (not now) im in disbelief of those stats (sorry for my scepticism)...the scatter just seems to be too consistent for any system picking 1 runner in a race and win betting only.

What's the average losing streak?


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## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Nice Kermit.
> 
> As a punter from way back (not now) im in disbelief of those stats (sorry for my scepticism)...the scatter just seems to be too consistent for any system picking 1 runner in a race and win betting only.




You're skeptical? Looks like you and me are the only ones. *CAGR% of 30,000%*.   What's most interesting of all is seeing some of ASF's self-proclaimed experts jumping in and lapping it up.  All you need is a scatter plot and a fancy graph and they think it's real.  

Kermit's either selling something or he has major calculation errors.  I know a professional horse gambler who spends 30 hours a week doing video analysis.  He just smiled when I told him.

Mods - thread needs to be removed.


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## prawn_86 (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Mods - thread needs to be removed.




Why? Kermit has provided analysis and asked for opinions, no different (in fact better analysis) than the vast majority of threads here.

Over time those stats will probably decrease and Kermit has said so himself, he has also said that he is in disbelief as to the current stats.

This is a great thread imo and it is good to see quality discussion. If you think he is wrong, then why not provide a few reasonings as opposed to just saying that in your experience it has to be wrong? Or point out where his calculation errors may be


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> You're skeptical? Looks like you and me are the only ones. *CAGR% of 30,000%*.   What's most interesting of all is seeing some of ASF's self-proclaimed experts jumping in and lapping it up.  All you need is a scatter plot and a fancy graph and they think it's real.
> 
> Kermit's either selling something or he has major calculation errors.




You may be right Gringotts Bank but unlike you I've seen results like this in trading. 

Most likely not scalable or will fall down given enough time.


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## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Why? Kermit has provided analysis and asked for opinions, no different (in fact better analysis) than the vast majority of threads here.
> 
> Over time those stats will probably decrease and Kermit has said so himself, he has also said that he is in disbelief as to the current stats.
> 
> This is a great thread imo and it is good to see quality discussion. If you think he is wrong, then why not provide a few reasonings as opposed to just saying that in your experience it has to be wrong? Or point out where his calculation errors may be





30,000% CAGR%.  Had he said 30% I might have read on.

Anyone who buys that is living in a fantasy land.  There's no quality discussion.  All I see is people saying WOW!  The level of gullibility is astounding.  If this sort of thread is allowed, it's a poor reflection on ASF.


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## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> ... I've seen results like this in trading.




Uh huh.  30,000%.  I think you've just blown all your credibility in one fell swoop.


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Uh huh.  30,000%.  I think you've just blown all your credibility in one fell swoop.




You having a bad day GB?


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## prawn_86 (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 30,000% CAGR%.  Had he said 30% I might have read on.
> 
> Anyone who buys that is living in a fantasy land.  There's no quality discussion.  All I see is people saying WOW!  The level of gullibility is astounding.  If this sort of thread is allowed, it's a poor reflection on ASF.




So your bias of previous experience means that it just cannot be possible? No matter what. Ever.

Same people said the same thing about flying i guess. I personally have never seen anyone teleport, or time travel, but it *may* be possible, who knows. And if someone presented a good case then my belief of it being possible would increase.

Show us where in the site rules and T&C that this thread breaks any of them. Lets get back ont opic though please and if you find anywhere this breraks the rules please PM me


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## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> You having a bad day GB?




What if I am?

Now a question for you:  Are you living in a fantasy world?


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## prawn_86 (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> You may be right Gringotts Bank but unlike you I've seen results like this in trading.
> 
> Most likely not scalable or will fall down given enough time.






Gringotts Bank said:


> Uh huh.  30,000%.  I think you've just blown all your credibility in one fell swoop.




I too. Obviously never done it myself but i have seen verified broker statements for accounts that have done this. As TH says it's usually not scalable and as soon as you try and put a bit of volume into it returns drop off dramatically


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What if I am?
> 
> Now a question for you:  Are you living in a fantasy world?




Maybe. Will have to wait till Kermit gets back to us. But since you're the great system designer, as we have seen the last oh... 2 years!, can you calculate the CAGR% for me for these systems,

$1,000 to $51,000 in a week over 300 trades?

$1,200 to $26,000 in two days over 200 trades?

$4,000 to $36,000 in three days over 200 trades?


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## prawn_86 (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> $1,000 to $51,000 in a week over 300 trades?
> 
> $1,200 to $26,000 in two days over 200 trades?
> 
> $4,000 to $36,000 in three days over 200 trades?




Some of those stats look quite familiar to me. Where have i seen them before...


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## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Maybe. Will have to wait till Kermit gets back to us. But since you're the great system designer, as we have seen the last oh... 2 years!, can you calculate the CAGR% for me for these systems,
> 
> $1,000 to $51,000 in a week over 300 trades?
> 
> ...




Wow.  Another wow.  So you're wealthier than Bill Gates by now.  Keep it up.


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Wow.  Another wow.  So you're wealthier than Bill Gates by now.  Keep it up.




Mate maybe you just need a nice big hug. 

Like I said a couple of points,

They never last,

They are not scalable,

I've seen real results like that,

And 

you never will.


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## jancha (26 July 2012)

I like to have a punt and as i dont sleep well at night i watch the replays and pick out any black bookers.
I then enter them into a site that holds your horses imformation eg. Distant..track conditions..Class ect The site then sends an e-mail to you when the horse races in it's next start and refreshes your memory on it's last start. I have found this the best way to have a punt especially with multiples eg. trifecta trebles quadrella as it's your own visual interpretation of what you think of that horse. I've owned horses in the past i know that they peak and by watching them run you can see that they needed the run or more needed ground in finishing off a race. Some horses also run on better if ridden from behind and dont win when ridden up front. 

What ever method of rating Kermit has it's pretty darn good to have that strike rate and at that average price.
I recall getting an offer for the cost of $6000 to join something similiar to Kermits setup and recieve by e-mail horses to back on the day. No i did'nt buy in as i know there are a lot of other factors with horses and a lot of things can go wrong. I just hope Kermits not trying to sell something. You know the old saying if it sounds too good to be true it probably is'nt.


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## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Mate maybe you just need a nice big hug.
> 
> Like I said a couple of points,
> 
> ...




Or maybe it's all a lie.

We'll never know.

But since you're not in the BRW rich list, we'll just have to believe you.


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

GB - Understand where you are coming from as this is an online forum and you don't know me from the next guy, but why would I go to the effort of posting two different stats tables from two different points in time with a fake scatter etc etc? It's a lot of effort to really achieve nothing except some praise by people on here. I have absolutely no intentions of selling anything, was simply an exercise i've gone through as I enjoy gambling, enjoy statistics and enjoy playing around with excel.

The reason for such a high CAGR is the short time period combined with the extraordinary winnings (I say extraordinary because I believe it won't last, at least not at this level). It's a relatively small sample size of just 4 months so because the account has gone from $1,000 to almost $6,000 in that short time of course the CAGR is extremely high. If I change that original balance number to $10,000 that CAGR instantly drops a huge amount.

I'm not trying to dupe anyone, and I can even provide you a list of every single bet that makes up those returns if you really want to go back and cross-check yourself. If you think i'd go back and look at every track, every race, every day for 4 months and select the bets just to falsify this then thats a pretty warped view of the world - but I guess this is online so I can understand somewhat. I'll post the bets for a while on here if that's of interest to people? Obviously no garuntee's they will produce anything but i'm willing to put myself out there.

Anyway, GB i'm not here to sell anything or seem like the almighty racing prophet, was just looking for some guidance on other stats/charts I should be looking at from a traders point of view. If you wish to be skeptical of my numbers thats understandable but don't really want to fill up this thread if its a witch hunt against me and moves away from the purpose of the thread.

Note: The reason I haven't looked at betting bigger on this system is its small sample size so far. If I continue to see respectable results moving into the spring carnival i'll likely increase my betting units. For now $10 unit's suffice.

I'm happy to answer any questions people have and i'll try prove anything you ask GB. If you want that list of all bets placed (Date, Venue, Race No., Overlay, Selection and Odds). You have to remember in betting there is an automatic stop loss (the amount you bet) however your returns are instantly 4R or better in most cases (particularly for my system) - something that can be possibly more difficult to achieve in share trading?


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Or maybe it's all a lie.
> 
> We'll never know.
> 
> But since you're not in the BRW rich list, we'll just have to believe you.




I'll happily send you statements. But you'll have to do something for us.......


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## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> I'll happily send you statements. But you'll have to do something for us.......




"But you'll have to do something for us".  Take a hike.

Anyone can Photoshop broker statements.


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

jancha - Not trying to sell something mate, wasn't even looking for this much attention just wanted some direction on any stats/charts I was missing. Just in relation to the strike rate, the actual strike rate of my top selection is basically the same as betting on the favourite of every race (generally 30-33% over the long-term). However it's once I apply some simple filters that the SR and payout improves quite a bit:

Simple filters based on my own stats:

Don't bet my ratings on Monday, Thursday or Friday.
Don't bet at QR (country QLD)
Don't bet on Slow/Heavy tracks

If I wanted to have more bets but a little less return i'd only filter out Thursday's, QR and Slow tracks as these are the only filters that show a negative return on my top rated horse.

EDIT:
Forgot to mention I only complete ratings on the better quality fields, I don't touch maiden's or Class 1 races as there just isn't the form there to make ratings accurate.


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## Timmy (26 July 2012)

Enough bickering - this thread needs to get back on topic.


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> I'll post the bets for a while on here if that's of interest to people? Obviously no garuntee's they will produce anything but i'm willing to put myself out there.




Thats would be good. Some real time calls. Just like we ask anyone with a trading system.


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## prawn_86 (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats would be good. Some real time calls. Just like we ask anyone with a trading system.




Yes, if Kermit would be so kind as to post up some bets he is taking either before the race (or just as it is running) then that will allow people to make further comments.

Up to him though depending on what he is seeking from this thread, this isn't a stock thread as such so it can be treated slightly differently


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## Timmy (26 July 2012)

GB - you have some PMs but it appears your inbox is full?

Sry for interruption all, back to topic.


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## jancha (26 July 2012)

These are my black bookers for this Saturday
	BAY WINDOW	WARWICK FARM	R8	
	DARE TO DOUBT	BELMONT	R4
	GIRESUN	CAULFIELD	R8	
	HARMONIC	CAULFIELD	R7	
	HEAVY SET	BELMONT	R7	
	MISS BINDI (NZ)	CAULFIELD	R5	
	MOSCOW PEARL (NZ)	CAULFIELD	R3	
	MYSTIC DUST	BELMONT	R5	

	RIGHT TIME	BELMONT	R8	

Kermit are any of those yours?


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

jancha said:


> These are my black bookers for this Saturday
> BAY WINDOW	WARWICK FARM	R8
> DARE TO DOUBT	BELMONT	R4
> GIRESUN	CAULFIELD	R8
> ...




Unfortunately can't do my ratings until the morning of the raceday. Can post some examples for today's racing if anyone is interested but they wouldn't be plays as Thursday's are actually the worst day my ratings perform for some reason - mainly due to the quality of the fields.


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## jancha (26 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> Unfortunately can't do my ratings until the morning of the raceday. Can post some examples for today's racing if anyone is interested but they wouldn't be plays as Thursday's are actually the worst day my ratings perform for some reason - mainly due to the quality of the fields.




Thats why it's better to stick the larger stake races.. less hanky panky.
I find that WA Belmont Ascot racing gives me the best results with my black bookers. Maybe because the track conditions dont vary as much as other states? I dont know. 
I to look at it on the race day to determine my bet eg track conditions.
 I'll be looking forward to your selections for Saturdays race meets.


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## CanOz (26 July 2012)

Wow, what a difference a day makes to a thread


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## skc (26 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> "But you'll have to do something for us".  Take a hike.
> 
> Anyone can Photoshop broker statements.




Big hug to you, GB. Even my goldfish can tell you are not in a good mood.

I don't know the first thing about horse racing, and frankly I didn't pay any attention to Kermit's CAGR figure as everyone knows that the sample size is still small to extrapolate. I have spoke with Kermit over PM a number of times before this thread on stock-related stuff, and know that he has a real job and isn't selling anything to us. He's also showed that he's pretty good with his spreadsheets on another thread. So imo he has no reason to make this stuff up.

Hopefully he will post his real time bets and we will see it in action, and see your input input as well.

I posted this a few years ago... just to show you what's possible sometimes. And like many have said. Things that are too good usually don't last and certainly not very scalable.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14588


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

Haha yeh we've moved forward quite a bit CanOz (or maybe even backwards?).

Recently i've preferred WA races as well jancha as the eastern states have been constantly wet for a few weeks now which is not giving me much opportunity to use my ratings. Hopefully as things clear up a bit over the next month or so should see some more plays start to pick up again.

Anyhow now that a few people have looked at the stats/charts was there anything people thought 'oh I wonder what x is, it doesn't say it here'?

I've got some ideas that I might try put in place later tonight for charts. Hopefully the whole stats side is covered off.


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## brty (26 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> By the way the max drawdown so far is 18% based on betting 2% units of my bankroll, I assume this is quite good in comparison to share trading max drawdowns?




Your graphs do not appear to show this. The statistics drawn up show a consistent bet size not a percentage of bankroll 'investment'.

GB, I have personally seen the statements (and the wealth) of an individual who turned less than $10k into over $750k trading commodities in the mid 80's in a little over a year. While not CAGR of over 30,000%. You do not see him on the rich list because a little electronic malfunction cost him over $200k three weeks before the '87 crash. He stopped trading, became educated in markets via some shonksters, and has never been able to repeat his earlier success. He kept most of his money. He is a friend that I have known for over 25 years.

His methodology of making the fortune was simple hourly charts that when a price moved outside the trend channel he bought or sold accordingly, he drew the charts by hand. He also played a few hunches.

Kermit, If you post the picks then I would not expect the system to perform nearly as well, simply because many here might go and put $10 on your picks, enough to shorten the odds one or two points. But that in itself might be an interesting experiment.

Good luck with it. 

P.S. Now where did I put that stray $10 and how do you bet at the TAB?


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## prawn_86 (26 July 2012)

brty said:


> Kermit, If you post the picks then I would not expect the system to perform nearly as well, simply because many here might go and put $10 on your picks, enough to shorten the odds one or two points. But that in itself might be an interesting experiment.
> 
> Good luck with it.
> 
> P.S. Now where did I put that stray $10 and how do you bet at the TAB?




Depends ont he size of the market, but yes this owuld be a concern. If he was to place the bet before posting here and take the fixed odds option that would overcome this however


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

Hi brty,

Good pickup on the drawdown part. I'll explain briefly how i've done it. I've based the max drawdown on if you continue to bet 2% of your starting bankroll/capital not 2% of your ongoing bankroll.

What I could do tonight is show you the effects of essentially compounding the money by betting 2% of the remaining bankroll from the previous bet. It's something i've been thinking of in the last week or so, i'll have some free time tonight so will give it a look and post the results. Only thing is it will likely blow that CAGR back out even further so GB might not be happy haha, just kidding GB .

It would depend how many here decide to throw $10 on my selections, it may make a slight difference on a weekday market but it would likely have almost zero effect on a saturday market as the pools are considerably higher. Anyhow my statistics shown in this thread are based on odds achieved with Unitab. Generally you can achieve much better odds with Betfair even after you pay their commission on profits. Therefore the points I 'may' miss in recording my statistics,  i'm unlikely to miss with my actual betting.

For instance, when I was posting my ratings for all qualifying races on the horse betting forum I follow, myself and another reader noticed for a short period of time that my 1st, 3rd and 5th rated horses were winning quite regularly. He started betting just $10 on them if their odds were above $4-1. From memory he was up around $500 in a week but that was helped a reasonable amount by a $25-1 winner on one of the days. Anyway I doubt we'd move the markets much at all really given then number of TAB's, bookies and online agencies around - unless say 20-30 of us all bet $100 each on a weekday meeting.


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## brty (26 July 2012)

The fascinating part to watch will be the difference in results from your own fixed odds pre publicity compared with starting odds, especially if the system continues to perform. I would not think it would take long (as in a month or two) for the thread to become very popular and bet size be considerably larger than $100 from followers, again if it continues with success.


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## prawn_86 (26 July 2012)

brty said:


> The fascinating part to watch will be the difference in results from your own fixed odds pre publicity compared with starting odds, especially if the system continues to perform. I would not think it would take long (as in a month or two) for the thread to become very popular and bet size be considerably larger than $100 from followers, again if it continues with success.




I know little about betting; are the odds on one site affected by the move in odds on another?

EG if i placed a huge bet on Sportsbet.com.au would the TAB.com.au odds also move?


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

brty said:


> The fascinating part to watch will be the difference in results from your own fixed odds pre publicity compared with starting odds, especially if the system continues to perform. I would not think it would take long (as in a month or two) for the thread to become very popular and bet size be considerably larger than $100 from followers, again if it continues with success.




Send the calls to a mod in a PDF or word doc with a password. After the races the mod gets the password and post the picks.


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

brty, I actually use sportsbet.com.au's CB (Country or City Best) option to place my bets, so that I get the best price from the TAB's starting prices. I don't use fixed odds as sometimes you can get left out in the cold with a fixed price of $4.00 and CB price of say $6.00. Obviously it can work in reverse as well but i've found it rarely goes in your favour.

I'll be looking at using Betfair soon though (finalising ID verification) as people like you and me make the market with no corporates taking their cut. BF only take a commission of 6.50% on profits so while not ideal, is still better then your TAB's and agencies who make the market themselves.

I believe its a combination of both prawn, if there were any major movements on one site/TAB then i think you'd find the competititors would quickly follow suit. I believe TAB's pools are perfectly driven by the weight of money whereas agencies like sportsbet, centrebet etc will follow the TAB's lead a bit.


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Send the calls to a mod in a PDF or word doc with a password. After the races the mod gets the password and post the picks.




I'm not too fussed posting just directly here, at least for a little while if things did start to get out of hand then i'd soon stop. The same as anything though I really hope people wouldn't start blindly following from the first bet I post and expect instant coffee. If any anger was directed at me for losses i'd be pretty reluctant to post anything further.

It would simply be an exercise to show what i'm following myself, if people decide to jump on the train as well then so be it for the time i post the plays, but don't get upset with me if it falls down.


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## Timmy (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Send the calls to a mod in a PDF or word doc with a password. After the races the mod gets the password and post the picks.




 Does anyone know of a good, fast password cracking software pls?






: 

.


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## peter2 (26 July 2012)

kermit: All you have to do is post your race markets (top 5). It's then up to the punters who actually want to bet to work out the overlays for themselves. 

Once the race day is over the overlays can be easily identified and their performance monitored.


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## kid hustlr (26 July 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> I know little about betting; are the odds on one site affected by the move in odds on another?
> 
> EG if i placed a huge bet on Sportsbet.com.au would the TAB.com.au odds also move?




I believe this would move all markets prawn. Without knowing the details of how liquid/efficient these markets are I would assume a massive variation in pricing would allow for arbitrage opportunites.


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

kid hustlr,

A guy on this racing forum I read found an arbitrage opportunity that was available pretty regularly, however he had to place the bets with two different agencies, however for some reason the winning side seemed to continually be with one of the agencies and not the other, said it didn't take them long before he was banned the opportunity ceased to exist.

It's funny how a lot of these agencies encourage you to bet with the illusion of winning being easy, as soon as anyone does it consistently and starts increasing their volume you get banned pretty quickly. There's some pretty interesting stories in a thread created recently where people who bet for a day job were posting their experiences. If anyone is interested feel free to PM for the link.

One thing that most people note, and which is basically why i'm comfortable posting my plays on here, is that people will follow you in the short term, but as soon as there are a string of losses or they accidentally forget to follow you for a day or two, they generally give up. So while I plan on following this through for the long-term, I don't think it would take long to weed out many on here if they were following me.


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

Ok guys I ran through the bets but changed the units from $10 units throughout to starting with $500 bankroll and betting 2.00% units. I'm not even going to post the screenshot of the statistics because they are beyond rediculous. Changing the units to 2.00% instead of flat $10 throughout basically compounds the returns exponentially. The max drawdown remains at a reasonable level of 21.84% but the returns are just beyond believable.

For instance here's a snippet of what a few stats become by changing the unit size:

Finishing Capital - $1,482,441
Expectancy - $7,678
RR - 52,738%

As you can see it's simply unbelievable.

Thats all I comment on regarding 2% units, just thought i'd let you know how it turned out.


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## jersey10 (26 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> Ok guys I ran through the bets but changed the units from $10 units throughout to starting with $500 bankroll and betting 2.00% units. I'm not even going to post the screenshot of the statistics because they are beyond rediculous. Changing the units to 2.00% instead of flat $10 throughout basically compounds the returns exponentially. The max drawdown remains at a reasonable level of 21.84% but the returns are just beyond believable.
> 
> For instance here's a snippet of what a few stats become by changing the unit size:
> 
> ...




I can't believe you aren't betting bigger, especially if this edge is too good to last.


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## skc (26 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> For instance here's a snippet of what a few stats become by changing the unit size:
> 
> Finishing Capital - $1,482,441
> Expectancy - $7,678
> ...




These are starting to look wrong... 



kermit345 said:


>




On these stats here, your average profit per bet is $25.60 on average of $14.82 bet, yet your expectancy per $1 bet is also $25.60. Looks like something's wrong with the expectancy calculation? 

Also, your maximum drawdown of $94.20 is 19.84% of $500, not the $1000 invested capital. So something not right in there either.


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## skc (26 July 2012)

Another question:

- The $25.6 average profit per bet, is that net profit, i.e. after taking into account the average $14.82 of capital? Or is the net profit really $10.78?


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## So_Cynical (26 July 2012)

Winning bets 80
Losing bets 113

Picking just 1 horse and only win betting  ..... over 4 months and 193 punts. 

Kermit if every race only had 3 starters that's very hard to achieve...with an average field of 11 or 12 starters its 

Its

Impossible.  

I've seen lucky streaks, had one or two myself, ive studied, track times, conditions, travel affects, barriers, jockeys, breeding, form lines, class lines, weights, Track Bias, 1st up, second up anomalies...you name it.

And the above is why no system can consistently pick single winners at such a rate as to make em pay.

Average odds 8.45  8 and a half to 1 is the average.  No no no no no.

Nothing personal...and no malice intended but NO.

------------------------

Kermit can you please PM me your results spread sheet.?


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

SC - Haha don't worry mate i'm barely believing it myself but like I said I can give you every selection so far for every race, venue etc etc. It's funny how nobody in the racing forum has questioned what i've done so far but on here there are skeptics everywhere. SC if every race only had 3 starters, you'd be able to hit better then the 33% you think it works out to be. It's not like flipping a coin or rolling a dice where the number of horses all have an equal chance of winning, hence the odds. This is why achieving a strike rate of 30-40% definitely isn't out of the realms of possibilities, especially since solely betting favourites wins around 33% of the time taking into account every single race.

I agree with you that its not sustainable, but there's no reason I can't even out at a level of say 35% and odds of say $5-1 on average, which would still mean a profit. Anyhow i'm not going to write anymore defending the bets so far, in my mind it is what it is, as i've said from now on i'll post the plays for everyone to see. Either that or ill take TH's advice and give a passworded pdf to a mod who can post after the races have run.

skc - As far as I know the calculations are correct but i'll tell you how i've calculated them:

Avg Profit per bet - simply Total Net Profit / Bets Executed
Avg Bet Size - in excel i just did the average of all staking cells
Expectancy - (Winning % * Avg Winning bet) + (Losing % * Avg Losing bet)

Regarding max drawdown your 100% correct, i actually did it vs $500 as my $10 unit size is 2% of $500 - good pickup i should've explained that. I've actually adjusted my spreadsheet to show starting capital as $500 so everything lines up.

Let me know if any of those equations look incorrect skc, more than happy to admit if i'm doing something wrong, just can't see it myself at the moment.

By the way, I haven't said yet but even though 193 bets have been executed that from a total of 1,186 races that i've completed ratings on. I'm happy to answer any questions you have on what i'm doing but if you are basically going to call me a liar i'd rather you just didn't reply unless its constructive.

Thanks


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## jersey10 (26 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> I agree with you that its not sustainable, but there's no reason I can't even out at a level of say 35% and odds of say $5-1 on average, which would still mean a profit.




Why is it not sustainable?


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## skc (26 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> skc - As far as I know the calculations are correct but i'll tell you how i've calculated them:
> 
> Avg Profit per bet - simply Total Net Profit / Bets Executed
> Avg Bet Size - in excel i just did the average of all staking cells
> ...




If your average bet size is correct at $14.82, then your "Expectancy per $1 bet" should = $25.6 / $14.82 = 1.727.

May be that caused an extrapolation error?


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## kermit345 (26 July 2012)

skc said:


> If your average bet size is correct at $14.82, then your "Expectancy per $1 bet" should = $25.6 / $14.82 = 1.727.
> 
> May be that caused an extrapolation error?




Yeh actually exactly what your saying is true skc. The way I calculated it was just the way it was shown in an equation i found on a website ages ago but what your saying makes total sense. I'll fix the spreadsheet to reflect that now as it makes more sense then what is showing there at the moment. Cheers.


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## odds-on (27 July 2012)

Top thread Kermit345! Keep posting.

The discussion about favourite-longshot bias got me thinking.

-How can an investor apply it to the ASX?
-How does an investor select the favourites? Off the top of my head - take the current macroeconomic conditions (the track/weather), select the companies most likely to succeed in that macroeconomic climate (the horse) and then pick the companies with the best odds (strongest recent business performance with the lowest P/E ratio relative to peers/overall market).

Also, there is past issue of AFR Smart Investor which has an interesting article on an investor who applies a mechanical system to the ASX using historical price and fundamental data. The investor reckons if a stock meets his criteria (which he developed over many years) it has high chance of success. He does no business research and he implements a strict stop loss at 10%. His CAGR was around 30% if my memory serves me correctly. If you enjoy the betting spreadsheet and rating systems, you may enjoy implementing a mechanical stock trading system.


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## kermit345 (27 July 2012)

Hi All,

The following plays are bets that I'll be putting on today with a joint account I share with a friend. These are not plays that are within the realms of the statistics i've posted as that system does not bet on Friday's. However as we wanted more action (me and my friend) we only exclude Thursday's. Friday's are profitable going by my stats, just not by as much as other days during the week.

Plays:

Goulburn - Race 6			

No.	Top 5	Odds	Overlay
6	Kanskje	 $7.22 	1.11
3	Moorings Capital	 $7.31 	0.41
1	Gunna Happen	 $8.87 	0.62
2	Moment of Clarity	 $10.07 	0.65
5	Image Of Darkness	 $11.65 	0.60

No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 	
6	Kanskje	 $11.08 	

Goulburn - Race 7			

No.	Top 5	Odds	Overlay
3	Wondergal	 $5.01 	0.90
8	Stellar Academy	 $8.56 	0.41
4	River Chloe	 $9.31 	1.07
2	Tiger Territory	 $9.44 	0.48
5	Vegasherewecome	 $9.86 	1.62

No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 	
3	Wondergal	 $9.00


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## prawn_86 (27 July 2012)

Will be interesting to watch the results, now i just have to figure out how to actually tell who has won.


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## skc (27 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> Goulburn - Race 7
> 
> No.	Top 5	Odds	Overlay
> 3	Wondergal	 $5.01 	0.90
> ...




Don't you only bet when overlay >1?


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## kermit345 (27 July 2012)

skc said:


> Don't you only bet when overlay >1?




0.90 or greater


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## So_Cynical (27 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> Goulburn - Race 6
> 
> No.	Top 5	Odds	Overlay
> 6	Kanskje	 $7.22 	1.11
> ...




Results

1st = 7	 	ALRIGHT ALREADY	6.10	2.20	 
2nd = 11	 	CENTRAL ACT	  	11.60	 
3rd = 6	 	*KANSKJE	  	1.60*



kermit345 said:


> Goulburn - Race 7
> 
> No.	Top 5	Odds	Overlay
> 3	Wondergal	 $5.01 	0.90
> ...




Results

1st = 2	 	TIGER TERRITORY	5.80	2.00	 
2nd = 12	 	STAKE KNIFE	  	3.90	 
3rd = 1	 	COEUR DE HERO	  	3.70

http://tatts.com/racing/2012/7/27/NR/7


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## kermit345 (28 July 2012)

ah well as I said, not a betting day in relation to the system stats i've posted, merely just some plays me and a mate had for some action. I'll post legitimate plays tomorrow for the system.


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## barney (28 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> ah well as I said, not a betting day in relation to the system stats i've posted, merely just some plays me and a mate had for some action. I'll post legitimate plays tomorrow for the system.




Out of curiousity Kermit, have you worked out the stats on your selections if they were for Place only?  If your strike rate is consistent enough, you could possibly be a bit more inventive/aggressive with your staking plan??

Good luck tomorrow.  You realise now that everyones watching, you'll probably have ten losers in a row .......


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## kermit345 (28 July 2012)

I've got no doubts the forum curse will strike me down but we'll see how I go eh:

Doomben Race 6
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
2	Mossriver	 $11.80 

Doomben Race 7
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
3	Beggin	 $10.90 

Belmont Race 9
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
6	My Rouge	 $11.40 

If the Sydney or Melb tracks dry out a bit there might be more plays but thats it for now.


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## jancha (28 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> ah well as I said, not a betting day in relation to the system stats i've posted, merely just some plays me and a mate had for some action. I'll post legitimate plays tomorrow for the system.




Hows your selections coming along Kermit?


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## jancha (28 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Hows your selections coming along Kermit?




Snap!


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## jancha (28 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> I've got no doubts the forum curse will strike me down but we'll see how I go eh:
> 
> Doomben Race 6
> No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake
> ...




Mossriver at fixed odds are $4.00 Do you still lay your bet at those odds?  Unitab has it rated at 99 while Magic Tartan is top rater at 100 with fixed odds of 17/1.


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## kermit345 (28 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Mossriver at fixed odds are $4.00 Do you still lay your bet at those odds?  Unitab has it rated at 99 while Magic Tartan is top rater at 100 with fixed odds of 17/1.




Unitab ratings are a very small component that makes up my own ratings. I don't take fixed odds I use sportsbet City Best or Betfair. For instance even though I lost yesterday, I managed to get $8.80 odds on Kanskje on Betfair but it ended up paying $5.10 for a win on unitab, thats a big upside to your bottom line if I can keep hitting a reasonably strike rate but get that much extra juice with betfair regularly.


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## kermit345 (28 July 2012)

So new plays because the track conditions improved in Sydney:

Warwick Farm Race 7
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
1	Zakynthos Imprintz	 $11.30 

Warwick Farm Race 8
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
12	I Get Around	 $9.00


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## brty (28 July 2012)

1 out of 5 today, pretty much as you expect as soon as you put some type of system up, murphy's law and all that. Be interesting to see the results after a hundred or so  picks.

Of particular interest is the one winner today, I Get Around. Kermit had odds of $9.00 this morning, yet the tote pay out was $1.70. I wonder how much of the systems success so far is due to the money management side, ie getting good odds. 

Kermit have you had a look at the starting odds of the winners compared to what you actually received as earlier fixed odds?


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## kermit345 (28 July 2012)

brty said:


> 1 out of 5 today, pretty much as you expect as soon as you put some type of system up, murphy's law and all that. Be interesting to see the results after a hundred or so  picks.
> 
> Of particular interest is the one winner today, I Get Around. Kermit had odds of $9.00 this morning, yet the tote pay out was $1.70. I wonder how much of the systems success so far is due to the money management side, ie getting good odds.
> 
> Kermit have you had a look at the starting odds of the winners compared to what you actually received as earlier fixed odds?




Hi brty,

Those weren't the odds I received, that was the staking level for the system. Although I did get odds of $2.00 using city best on sportsbet so a good extra 17% compared to the TAB which adds up over time. It certainly makes a difference, probably could have got even better on betfair.


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## howardbandy (29 July 2012)

Hi Kermit --

I describe a method that combines monitoring of the health of a system with computation of position size that will maximize account growth while holding drawdown to a level you determine.  You can read several articles that illustrate it on my website:
http://www.blueowlpress.com/WordPress/
Also, I have written a book that gives the complete details.  You can read portions of the book on its website:
http://www.modelingtradingsystemperformance.com/

Best regards,
Howard


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## prawn_86 (29 July 2012)

Any further tips for today Kermit?


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## kermit345 (29 July 2012)

2 plays today:

Kalgoorlie Race 5
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
3	Miss Heinekin	 $11.30 

Kalgoorlie Race 7
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
6	Phase Three	 $9.70 

Thanks howard i'll have a read when I get a chance, sister just got back from America so things are all over the place in our house at the moment.


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## sinner (30 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> I've got no doubts the forum curse will strike me down but we'll see how I go eh:




Some people call it a curse, others a blessing, how many amazing yet simple concepts have been put onto trading fora all over the world, only to be discarded after the first consecutive drawdowns...


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## kermit345 (30 July 2012)

haha sinner, I won't be giving up, I knew the results so far were too good and that this type of run was coming sooner or later. Doesn't mean I need to chuck in the towel, I still think the approach i'm taking is profitable over the long run. I know the haters won't mind sticking the knives in on here soon though haha.


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## kermit345 (31 July 2012)

Two more plays today gents for those interested:

Kembla Grange - Race 2
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
7	Narietta	 $22.90 

Geelong Syntheti - Race 8
No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake 
3	Lago Di Como	 $10.00


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## So_Cynical (31 July 2012)

kermit345 said:


> Two more plays today gents for those interested:
> 
> Kembla Grange - Race 2
> No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake
> 7	Narietta	 $22.90




Race Result Information	 	

1	 	DEBELLE	 
8	 	OOGY SUN	  		 
10	 	VI'S INTERVENTION



kermit345 said:


> Geelong Syntheti - Race 8
> No.	System 1 Selection	 Stake
> *3	Lago Di Como*	 $10.00




Race Result Information	 	

5	 	RIPLEYS	 
*3	 	LAGO DI COMO* 
10	 	ZABILLIE	

http://tatts.com/racing/2012/7/31/raceday


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## kermit345 (6 August 2012)

Hi guys,

forgot to post my plays on Saturday here and surprise surprise had some winners. Previously i'd been betting my system a bit more ad hoc but moving forward i'm going to be applying it exactly to the letter. As there still isn't enough data (I believe) to be extremely confident in the system i'm going to start my bankroll off small ($200) and bet 1% units ($2 per bet multiplied by the overlay with a max 3% rule). I started this on saturday and the following is my post in my thread on the horse betting forum:



> First day done for me with the new bankroll and 1% units and it was very succesful. I felt given the recent poor results that a day like this was around the corner and it turned out very well.
> 
> 4 Plays:
> 
> ...




If you want to read the whole thread go to the following link, there is some good discussion around my results and system in there. Also there were no plays yesterday and none today as well, happy reading 

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=24436

EDIT: As a side note my results show that starting with a $200 bankroll on 1 April 2012 would have increased to a $13,000 account value now following the exact same method (4 months) lets see if I can achieve something even remotely similar in the next 4 months.


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## white_goodman (14 August 2012)

craft said:


> Hi Kermit
> 
> Nice stats.
> 
> ...




they wont be getting done on that


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