# Copper



## Ann

February 2011 saw the peak price of copper, since then it has had a steady fall with no break back up through the overhead trendline unlike gold, silver and oil. Just a steady downward trajectory.


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## tinhat

I like the look of the 5 year, 1 year and 6 month copper charts at the moment. Copper broke out on the 12 month chart last night. Cup and handle formation on the 5 year chart? Is copper heading back up over US$3? I've been accumulating a couple of speculative copper plays over the past year (CZI and FND) but I am quietly sulking over my holding in TGS (in extended trading halt over debt and production problems, significant sovereign risk exposure in the DRC). Any hot tips in copper?


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## notting

OZL and SFR yesterday.
I was nibbling but missed SFR

Not this - HOT - it's a hot bed of Mongoloids.


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## Ann

Just interested in watching Copper by the month.


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## tinhat

There is a head and shoulders pattern forming on the monthly copper chart, which suggests copper might be headed down towards the support line in Ann's chart above. 


Note that the left hand shoulder also forms part of the handle in the cup and handle formation that emerged in 2017 which suggested the move up.


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## Ann

tinhat said:


> There is a head and shoulders pattern forming on the monthly copper chart, which suggests copper might be headed down towards the support line in Ann's chart above.
> Note that the left hand shoulder also forms part of the handle in the cup and handle formation that emerged in 2017 which suggested the move up.




G'day tinhat, mostly I don't see H+S resolving in a textbook manner unless they are right at the pinacle of a chart. However, in this case you may be right. I would like to see it fall and touch that rising support line. It would give me a lot of confidence it is on the way back up and I feel a touch and bounce would strengthen it for a good go at the overhead falling resistance line.


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## tinhat

Ann said:


> G'day tinhat, mostly I don't see H+S resolving in a textbook manner unless they are right at the pinacle of a chart. However, in this case you may be right. I would like to see it fall and touch that rising support line. It would give me a lot of confidence it is on the way back up and I feel a touch and bounce would strengthen it for a good go at the overhead falling resistance line.



OK, I'm not much of a student of charting so always good to have some feedback on my observations.


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## Ann

rederob said:


> We now know a lot more about the actual quantities of copper used in all forms of electric vehicles. My original figures were very conservative for HEVs and as BEVs were not on the scene back then, we now have a new metric. HEVs will disappear and BEVs will become the new normal, consuming about 4 times the amount of copper as an ICE (internal combustion engine) alternative.
> What I did do in my first post in 2007 was to look at at how much copper would be needed to convert the entire car fleet to EVs by 2027, just to show the massive volumes of copper involved. (There was no way that our manufacturing base could achieve that, even if every vehicle manufactured since 2007 was an EV.)
> WRT to the ducati quote, I never assumed that after the subprime meltdown there would be an immediate shift to a bull market of any sort. Commodity bulls are very few and far between - just look at oil and gold as examples. However, as the BEV market accelerates, there is every chance that a number of metals essential to EVs will stretch the supply chain such that in a flat world economy there will be areas of significant outperformance.
> Over the next few weeks I will look around to see if the major copper producers have any data or specific reports on what they regard as probable.




Welcome back to Rederob, his insights into stuff that comes out of the ground is always well worth a read.


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## rederob

Ann said:


> Welcome back to Rederob, his insights into stuff that comes out of the ground is always well worth a read.



Consensus forecasts for copper prices in 2019 are slightly higher.  Fitch reckons $6900 versus $6550/tonne in 2018.


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## Ann

rederob said:


> Consensus forecasts for copper prices in 2019 are slightly higher.  Fitch reckons $6900 versus $6550/tonne in 2018.



Thanks Rob, that is very interesting. I have to confess I am a total Copper bull, so any info like that is delicious for my bias.


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## rederob

Ann said:


> Thanks Rob, that is very interesting. I have to confess I am a total Copper bull, so any info like that is delicious for my bias.



Add *this* to your reading list. 
Warehouse inventories look to be in for an interesting time this year and might cause a spike in copper prices if there are any major supply disruptions.


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## Ann

rederob said:


> Add *this* to your reading list.
> Warehouse inventories look to be in for an interesting time this year and might cause a spike in copper prices if there are any major supply disruptions.



Darn the "this" is not linking Rob. I don't think they have HTML here.


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## Skate

Ann said:


> Darn the "this" is not linking Rob. I don't think they have HTML here.




Ann, the hyperlink..

http://www.icsg.org/index.php/component/jdownloads/finish/114/2898?Itemid=

Skate


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## Ann

Skate said:


> Ann, the hyperlink..
> 
> http://www.icsg.org/index.php/component/jdownloads/finish/114/2898?Itemid=
> 
> Skate



Thanks Skate, but that didn't work for me either, I guess gremlins are at play here! 

However, the web address worked for me. Looks like a great site to browse when I have a bit of time, thank you very much Rob. I will just remind myself with the link that works for me. 
http://www.icsg.org/index.php/the-world-of-copper


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## Ann

*Copper price approaches eight-month high*

_.........On-warrant LME copper inventories available to the market fell by 6,350 tonnes to 33,450 tonnes, the lowest level since August 2005.

Supply shortage concerns, a stronger Chinese currency and looser credit conditions have boosted sentiment in copper, said Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen.

China imports of copper scrap fell 11.5 per cent year on year to 180,000 tonnes in January.

It was the first month that imports of 32 extra types of solid waste, including lower-grade scrap copper, were banned as part of China's crackdown on foreign rubbish....... More..._


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## rederob

Copper decisively broke through $2.85/lb resistance on 18 February and is on its way to break all time highs.
I am looking at near term target at around $3.20 before next bit of consolidation.
However, with LME warehouses at 33,000 tonnes of "*available*" metal there might not be a chance to catch breath on the run north for longer than I would expect.


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## Ann

...and a monthly view of Copper.


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## rederob

Copper flirted with $3.00/lb on Friday as it heads north again.
LME open interest is now at 21,600 tonnes, so at present drawdown rate LME warehouses will have nothing available by end of March.
Things are looking good for equities strong in copper output.


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## Ann

*Biggest Trading in Copper Options Ever Signals Supply Troubles*

The biggest trading volume in copper call options on record signals supply troubles brewing in the market.

A spread trade worth $6.5 million was posted just after 7 a.m. on Comex in New York in a bet that the price of the metal used in wires and pipes will surge past $3.05 in a few months, from Monday’s settlement price of $2.909. More....


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## Ann

This months Chart for Copper seems pretty much the same as last months with just a small swerve away from the falling resistance. Perhaps slightly bearish?


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## MARKETWINNER

https://investinghaven.com/commodities-gold/copper-price-forecast-2019/
A Copper Price Forecast for 2019


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## Ann

Looking at the end of month, monthly chart for Copper, the price has veered away from the falling overhead resistance line. Still no conclusive direction to make a call IMO.


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## Ann

Looking at the monthly chart, Copper price veered away from the overhead falling resistance line last month, this month it has had a solid fall and is heading down to the rising support, will it hold? My thoughts are it will, but I could be wrong!


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## Smurf1976

Ann said:


> Looking at the monthly chart, Copper price veered away from the overhead falling resistance line last month, this month it has had a solid fall and is heading down to the rising support, will it hold? My thoughts are it will, but I could be wrong!



It's going to have to break one way or another before too much longer and whichever way it goes will likely be an indicator for other things as well.

Oil's also significant in that regard and it has gone to the down side at least for the present time.


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## notting

*Dr Copper says - NO*


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## tinhat

I don't think that this spring can be coiled too much tighter.




I suspect that many, like me, are doing their strategic thinking for 2020. I'm already long CZI (Neo-Babel is a nickel & copper JV with OZL with a pre-feasibility study due out early 2020). I used to be in Finders Resources, but the Indonesians forced us out of our copper project in Indonesia, so CZI is my only big copper exposure.

Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?


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## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> .
> 
> Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?




There is Metals X (MLX) and Havilah (HAV), pretty small from memory.


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## jbocker

tinhat said:


> Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?



I don't know what qualifies 'as worth having a look at', Hot Chile  (HCH) are currently in a drilling program and are spruiking they have some impressive drill results and claim to potentially have a very large resource. From memory a resource estimate will be done 1st half 2020. Lots of shares a lot of work yet to be done.
To tell the truth I don't know if this just another explorer amongst a myriad of other copper explorers. Appreciate your thoughts but I see it as hugely speculative and with way too many shares on issue.
It is my punt tip in the 2020 yearly and the Jan comp,


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## frugal.rock

BHP and Glencore seem to be the larger companies mining some copper other than OZL.
Apparently it's expensive to mine and smelter which would limit smaller player's or at least put them in the higher risk basket case...
Regulation around smeltering is set to tighten up in the next few years also.


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## rederob

tinhat said:


> Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?



Take a look at SVY which is actively drilling and yielding some nice early results.
From its website:
"*The two flagship projects, Ararat and Stavely, host Inferred Mineral Resources that contain over 130Kt of copper and over 19,000 ounces of gold plus accessory zinc and silver. Stavely Minerals is targeting a Cadia-type gold-copper porphyry (Stavely Project), and a Degrussa-style VMS (volcanogenic massive sulphide) deposit (Ararat Project). There are also indications of Stawell-style gold mineralisation at the Ararat Project.*"​


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## tinhat

jbocker said:


> I don't know what qualifies 'as worth having a look at', Hot Chile  (HCH) are currently in a drilling program and are spruiking they have some impressive drill results and claim to potentially have a very large resource. ...
> It is my punt tip in the 2020 yearly and the Jan comp,




Thanks. I looked into HCH last night and opened up a very small position this morning. I'll post more on the HCH thread later. Good luck with the tipping comp.



frugal.rock said:


> BHP and Glencore seem to be the larger companies mining some copper other than OZL.




I'm quite focused on which metals I want to invest in so the major diversified miners are out for me (I'm not interested in hydrocarbons).



rederob said:


> Take a look at SVY which is actively drilling and yielding some nice early results.




Will do. I will also look at MLX and HAV. Thanks @sptrawler


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## jbocker

tinhat said:


> Good luck with the tipping comp.




I was wrong in my tipping as it doesn't qualify for the 2020 comp. My punt tip in that was Greenland Minerals (GGG) ...Rare Earths.


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## fergee

There is HGO but they have had been poorly managed over the years and the SP has the crap beaten out of it. Although they could give good exposure to the underlying asset if copper breaks out to the upside.  They are producing at Kanmanto and have been running a drilling program to try and extend the resource. Its running a price:book of 0.86 so there may be some value there but best to DYOD


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## tinhat

Excerpts below are from  *The coming copper crunch (2018)*






Copper use parity isn’t going to happen, it can’t.

_“Concern about the extent of mineral resources arises when the stock of metal needed to provide the services enjoyed by the highly developed nations is compared with that needed to provide comparable services with existing technology to a large part of the world’s population. Our stock data demonstrate that current technologies would require the entire copper and zinc ore resource in the lithosphere and perhaps that of platinum as well. Even a lower level of services could not be sustained worldwide because a continuing supply of new metal is needed to make up for inevitable losses in the recycling of the metal stock-in-use._

_Substitution has the potential to ameliorate this situation, but one should not automatically assume that technology will produce a satisfactory substitute for every service at an affordable price and precisely when needed._

_…anthropogenic and lithospheric stocks of at least some metals are becoming equivalent in magnitude, that world-wide demand continues to increase, and that the virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern ‘‘developed world’’ quality of life for all Earth’s peoples under contemporary technology…Do we really envision a developed world quality of life for all of the people of the planet…?” _ R. B. Gordon, M. Bertram, and T. E. Graedel, Metal Stocks and Sustainability


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## rederob

Copper prices are making another solid run north on stock drawdowns:


The above is a little misleading in that less than 45000 is actually "available" as the remainder are cancelled warrants.

Oddly, however, little price movement over the past fortnight:



Maybe insiders know there are big volumes ready to backfill warehouses, as this has been a repeating trend over the past 5 years:


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## Garpal Gumnut

The Chinese Government are talking about blocking imports of Australian Copper from Friday of this week. 









						Australian exporters to China face $6 billion 'D-Day'
					

China is banning Australian wine, copper, barley, coal, sugar, timber and lobster exports from Friday, an unconfirmed customs official notice says.




					www.smh.com.au
				




gg


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## frugal.rock

I had heard on Landline, that barley had caught up with more exports to other countries and a near "pre pandemic" price recovery.
Sell our products to other countries.
For the interim, No pain, no gain?


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## tinhat

Other than the Chinese who else are the major smelters of copper ore? 




Chart above shows Coppock curve below copper price in US$ per tonne.

OZL share price is doing well.


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## Trav.

Some commentary on the price of copper below. First time for me looking at copper and it is interesting to see what has happened previously and will it happen again?

I am interested in your thoughts on the impact to the asx companies if the copper price does retrace.




Some copper companies for reference, but please note that I have not researched all of these. This is just a Sunday distraction when I should be out doing those chores.


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## Smurf1976

tinhat said:


> Other than the Chinese who else are the major smelters of copper ore?



In terms of countries China's the big one but the other significant ones are, in order from largest after China, Chile, Japan, USA, Russia, Congo, South Korea, Germany, India, Poland, Spain, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Australia. There are also others of less significance individually.









						Refined copper production global distribution by country 2018 | Statista
					

This statistic displays the distribution of refined copper production worldwide in 2018, by country.




					www.statista.com


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## Trav.

Thanks @Smurf1976 some good info on that site.

Couple of charts that were of interest, with Chile having the reserves and I am assuming still struggling with COVID so another interesting / important link with China and Australia.

2018 free info below, but I assume still is pretty accurate.


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## Trav.

Now that I am looking at copper it is amazing what your see.....it's like buying a car then all of a sudden that model is everywhere 

Some really good info below from https://twitter.com/stokdog


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## Smurf1976

Something to note about copped is that it's commonly contained along with other metals in the same ore. It's not like iron ore or coal which are mined as single commodities.

For example Olympic Dam (in SA, operated by BHP) ore contains copper, gold, silver and uranium.

Rosebery mine (in Tasmania, operated by MMG) ore contains zinc, lead, copper, silver and gold. The sulfur content of this ore also has some value. 

Etc. So the economics of mining copper are tied to that of other minerals associated with it also.


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## frugal.rock

The POC
Monthly bars chart.




Weekly bars chart.




45 year chart courtesy of macrotrends.net Copper Prices - 45 Year Historical Chart
@Joe Blow can you fix the chart above for me? Cheers


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## qldfrog

Smurf1976 said:


> Something to note about copped is that it's commonly contained along with other metals in the same ore. It's not like iron ore or coal which are mined as single commodities.
> 
> For example Olympic Dam (in SA, operated by BHP) ore contains copper, gold, silver and uranium.
> 
> Rosebery mine (in Tasmania, operated by MMG) ore contains zinc, lead, copper, silver and gold. The sulfur content of this ore also has some value.
> 
> Etc. So the economics of mining copper are tied to that of other minerals associated with it also.



Just to add: i worked on copper mines in arizona which are just that: copper and just a little bit of other stuff, similar in Chile.
What @Smurf1976  says is right and extremely relevant in Australia, but not always true worldwide.
Not a criticism, but if interested in a copper mining play, do a sound homework.what do they actually mine, they could even have silver or gold mixed in


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## frugal.rock

Well Copperheads everywhere must be cheering today, POC breaking to new highs. 
Nearly stepped on a copperhead once, good thing it was earlish morning and it was sluggish... I jumped like a gazelle mid stride!

I believe I should start digging out my scrap copper collection and get stripping again.... insulation that is!
Have a air conditioner I picked up about a year ago, someone chucking it out.
It's an old school in wall jobbie, and has 2 copper cored exchangers... I'm guessing that maybe their worth around $100

Also have a bunch of old heavy duty HV mains cable, the stuff that has petroleum jelly and paper wrap as insulation and the outside sheath is lead...yeehaa.

Last trip to the scrappies was around late 2006, early 2007 and bright shiny wire was around $9.50 per kilo.
I remember driving past Lucas Heights nuclear reactor area and saw someone had dumped an old car radiator, mostly copper it was.
Got $40 in scrap for the U turn to jump out and pick that up.... I reckon a radiator like that is probably worth $300 as a spare part now though, after a recore that is.
Anyway, enough of me reliving the dream...
60 year chart



20year chart


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## dyna

Yeah,$US10,000/tonne coming up,just you wait.Won't be flattening out there,either.
      Scrap dealers would have to be the scum of the earth.They'll rob you blind if you don't speak up for yourself.They'll call bright clean copper"mixed" if it has the slightest burn or solder on it.
By the way,I hardly go for copper and brass,anymore.Aluminium cans are the thing! only 10cents right? Hardly worth the effort? Aluminium will only get you  $1 a kilo at the scrap metal yards but  250 crushed cans weighs 3.62 kg.That works out at....wait for it.....$6.88/kg. A 60 litre garbage binfull will get you $50


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## frugal.rock

Whistling away cleaning up my copper in preparation... no rush though.




Can anyone name any ASX stocks that are producing or about to start producing copper ?
Or anything else to do with copper...


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## debtfree

@frugal.rock Probably not comprehensive and only smallcap but a start and 2 years ago I just noticed



			Account Unavailable


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## jbocker

frugal.rock said:


> Can anyone name any ASX stocks that are producing or about to start producing copper ?
> Or anything else to do with copper...



Been watching (and hold) Hot Chilli a junior who have gained access to a big resource. They have started producing from a Productora. Cortadera is the big baby and they have other neighbouring discoveries.  @frugal.rock in answer to your question these are their words...
_For those interested in copper mining stocks, Hot Chili merits attention. We are a leading copper developer on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX: HCH), and we aim to be one of the top copper miners in Chile.






						Junior Copper Miner Chile, Copper Mining Stocks — ASX: HCH
					

Hot Chili (ASX: HCH) is one of the top ASX copper miners with an advanced Chilean coastal range portfolio. Discover our copper mining stocks to buy & industry news.




					www.hotchili.net.au
				



_


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## frugal.rock

Thanks Gents.
@jbocker I did see The chili move today and wondered why.

Put together a little watchlist bases off that list thanks @debtfree  , should have done this a while ago.
Most stocks moved up, RCP excepted as in a trade halt.
....C6C eh? Never heard of it...


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## debtfree

@frugal.rock 
On Listcorp





						ASX Copper Companies | Full List | Updated Daily
					

View the company profiles and latest news from the 16 companies in the Copper sub-industry listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)



					www.listcorp.com


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## Austwide

@Trav. provided a list of copper stocks, (many others as well) for Amibroker  watchlists in the Amibroker Tips thread this year.

The files were zipped. Here is the list for non Amibroker users.

CE.AU
@CU
@CUAUD
AIS.AU
AIV.AU
AL8.AU
AMG.AU
AML.AU
AQD.AU
ARE.AU
ARV.AU
AVW.AU
AZY.AU
BHP.AU
BOC.AU
BYH.AU
C6C.AU
CAZ.AU
CCZ.AU
CHK.AU
CLA.AU
CML.AU
COD.AU
COY.AU
CRL.AU
CSE.AU
CVV.AU
CYM.AU
EM2.AU
ERL.AU
GBZ.AU
GXY.AU
HAV.AU
HCH.AU
HGO.AU
HMX.AU
ICG.AU
IGO.AU
KGL.AU
KMT.AU
LRS.AU
MAG.AU
MEP.AU
MLX.AU
NRX.AU
NST.AU
NWC.AU
ORN.AU
OZL.AU
PEX.AU
PKO.AU
PUA.AU
PXX.AU
RCP.AU
RIO.AU
RTG.AU
RVR.AU
SFR.AU
SLZ.AU
SPQ.AU
SVY.AU
SYR.AU
VIC.AU
VXR.AU
WSA.AU
XAM.AU


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## Dona Ferentes

_*Thumping global growth expectations and tightening supply have elevated the price of copper to a nine-year high and lifted the Australian dollar above US79¢ for the first time in three years*_.
- Tomorrow's headline


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## Dona Ferentes

*Copper’s boom continued last week,* iron ore picked up after the Lunar New Year break, oil fell, especially on Friday and gold again weakened despite rising (and silly) fears about inflation, especially in the US. Those fears saw US bond yields return to levels of a year ago close to 1.4% before settling back around 1.34% for the key 10-year bellwether US treasury bond.

The bullishness saw the Aussie dollar jump well past 78 US cents on Friday night to end the week around 78.78 US cents, up nearly 1.5% for the week.  The currency looks like it is on its way to 70 US cents. Friday’s close was the highest since March, 2018.

Copper though grabbed the headlines as it surged to its highest in nearly a decade on Friday and its third straight weekly gain as tight supplies and positive sentiment towards base metals continued. The surge on Friday saw a gain of more than 4% in Comex copper futures prices alone a day after the Lunar New Year ended.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) added 2.3% to $US8,746 a tonne at one stage before sending at $US8,631 a tonne for three-month metal – a rise of more than 4% for the week. The Comex front month price settled at $US4.07 a pound, the highest it has been since September 2011. It ended after hours trading around $US4.09 a pound for a gain of more than 7% for the week.

The metal is up more than 56% since the start of 2020 and doubled in price since the lows around $US1.91 a pound in late March in the depths of the Covid sell-off. In London Markets, out month copper prices were trading around $US8,940 a tonne.  A continuing supply and demand imbalance in the copper market has driven prices to these near 10-year highs.

On the supply side, the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimated global mine production of copper was 20 million tonnes in 2020, a drop of 2% compared to 2019. The top ten copper producing countries mined 15.920 million tonnes of copper last year, a 2.3% fall from 2019. 

The USGS said five countries (China, DRC, Russia, Zambia and Kazakhstan) out of the top 10 increased copper output and the other five (Chile, Peru, USA, Australia and Mexico) saw declines. USGS said that global copper output declined over previous year primarily due to COVID-19 lockdowns in April and May. These disruptions significantly affected output in Peru, the second-ranked mine producer of copper, where production ... fell 12.5% in 2020.









						Commodities Corner: Copper! Copper! Copper! – ShareCafe
					

Copper’s boom continued last week, iron ore picked up after the Lunar New Year break, oil fell, and gold again weakened despite rising fears about inflation, especially in the US.




					www.sharecafe.com.au


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## frugal.rock

A train has smashed into a flatbed truck near Picton on the Southern Highlands train line in NSW.
The truck was apparently stolen and the driver was nowhere to be found.
Insulated copper cable was found strewn nearby and it is believed the driver of the unauthorised vehicle was stealing it from nearby storages.
Was on 7 news but can't find anything on Google search yet....

And so it begins.
The first recent copper thieving incident from thieves taking advantage of high scrap prices.

Stay tuned for more idiotic adventures. 
Occasionally, some of these idiots die from their misadventures.


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## rederob

I had posted some charts in another copper thread, but here's today's picture:


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## rederob

The record COMEX futures close was $4.6285 on 11 February 2011.
As you can see from the chart below,  we are presently 3 cents above that, but maybe some profit taking will occur before the close:


	

		
			
		

		
	
https://www.tradingview.com/x/f8noCFPr/


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## rederob

*Below is the same chart as above, but hourly until markets closed for the week. Once copper broke through the 2011 record high it just kept going, closing some 12 cents above it at $4.749.*



*The physical market was only a shade less buoyant:*


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## rederob

The world’s top five largest copper mining companies by production in 2020​1. Codelco – 1.73 million tonnes​Founded in 1955 and nationalised in 1971, Santiago-headquartered Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile, also known as Codelco, is the world’s top copper mining company.

2. BHP – 1.72 million tonnes​Anglo-Australian miner BHP ranks highly among the world’s largest copper mining companies, producing 1.72 million tonnes in its 2020 financial year (ending June 2020) – a 2% year-on-year increase.
In the 2020 calendar year, its copper production measured 1.68 million tonnes.
In partnership with Rio Tinto, BHP is seeking to advance the Resolution Copper project in Arizona, US, which is expected to yield around 18 million tonnes of copper over its planned lifetime.

*3. Freeport-McMoRan – 1.45 million tonnes*
Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, US miner Freeport-McMoRan produced 1.45 million tonnes of copper in 2020, a 1.3% year-on-year decline.
Its major mining interests include the Grasberg copper-gold deposit in Indonesia – the world’s biggest gold mine – and the Morenci mine in Arizona, which is one of the largest copper deposits in North America.
In total, the company operates seven open-pit copper mines in North America, as well as two molybdenum operations. It also has two copper mines in South America – Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile.

* 4. Glencore – 1.26 million tonnes*
Swiss-headquartered mining and commodity trading company Glencore produced 1.26 million tonnes of copper in 2020 – an 8% decline compared to the previous year.

5. Southern Copper – 1 million tonnes​Founded in 1952 and currently a subsidiary of Grupo Mexico with headquarters in Mexico City, Southern Copper ranks fifth among the world’s largest copper mining companies.
In 2020, it produced just over one million tonnes of the metal, a slight increase on the previous year.


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## rederob

Updating the price action for copper futures using the earlier base chart:



Just need to wait for the physical market to open to see if the tail is wagging the dog.  I do know Kitco's LME warehouse inventory will decline, but that's due to withdrawals as live warrants are still around 75K tonnes.


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## rederob

Sanity prevailed in the physical market overnight and dragged copper back to it's more sustainable trend:



We know China has held off buying copper to the extent it reserves can hold out, but fabricators need a buffer, and without a supply response the next spike upward will be equally as sharp as yesterday's.


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## rederob

The trend channel below can be referenced at post #57.
In the shorter time frame here it looks innocuous, but it's crazy steep and unsustainable unless you think copper at $7/lb is possible by June 2022 (I don't).



More crazy is that the futures prices are holding above this trend, while spot copper is some 5 cents/lb lower.  Apart from small declines of available copper at Comex warehouses, Shanghai and LME warehouses have had solid gains over recent days (8k tonnes at SHFE and 10K tonnes at LME).  The battle seems to be about whether or not copper users are buying into elevated prices.  The futures price suggest they are not, and there is pent up buying demand as inventories run down.  If they are right, there will be another strong spike north.  If they are not, prices will come off the boil but remain high until there is a sustained supply response.


----------



## rederob

Recalibrating the trend in place since March 2020 to pick up the May 10th record high of $4.888/lb:


After a retrace copper has quickly bounced back.
A fortnight ago Chinese warehouses added inventory while LME's shrank a touch.  Last week that trend reversed.  Given that Chinese producers have been holding back buying at high prices, and their warehouse inventories are declining, further price rises or at least strong prices, look like being the norm for the foreseeable future.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

a nod to Mick (@mullokintyre )



> In Peru,  socialist candidate Pedro Castillo is maintaining a narrow lead over right-wing rival Keiko Fujimori as votes are still being counted and increasingly contested from Sunday's run-off election [for President].
> 
> As of early Tuesday it's still being deemed "too close to call", ..... Son of peasant famers and an outspoken union leader, Castillo has "*vowed to nationalize Peru's vast mineral resources, *to expel foreigners who commit crimes in the country, and to move towards reinstating the death penalty," according to one profile.


----------



## Smurf1976

As has occurred during previous copper price rises, theft is now becoming a problem:









						Copper thief leaves 2,000 residents without power on 'Antarctic blast' day
					

On one of the coldest days of the year, thousands of Kingston residents have been left shivering following mass power outages. But a huge storm wasn't to blame.




					www.abc.net.au
				




Breaking into a live electrical substation and stealing parts of it for their scrap metal value is a really, really bad idea in lots of ways but the price rise seems to be triggering incidents like this.

Kingston is a small town ~300km from Adelaide.


----------



## mullokintyre

Problem is, my go to copper stock seems fully priced. OZL which I have traded numerous times in the past (most recently September last year), is now sitting  on a PE of 38. Needs to be some serious price increases or reductions in cost to justify that high a value.
Might have to just sit this one out.


----------



## Sean K

Around ATH. No wonder Cu producers have done so well. OZL has been a dream. With the new President of Chile anti-mining, that's actually good for the POC. While supply is going to come off as old mines approach LOT, there's not a lot of new significant projects coming on. While lithium is running, I think the next thing might be copper. And, it's already been going nuts for 2 years.


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> Problem is, my go to copper stock seems fully priced. OZL which I have traded numerous times in the past (most recently September last year), is now sitting  on a PE of 38. Needs to be some serious price increases or reductions in cost to justify that high a value.
> Might have to just sit this one out.



 i only reduced OZL   , it was a patience-testing  ride to get into a nice position in OZL , so decided to keep a useful parcel  at a theoretic average price of $5.17 a share  so the div. yield for ME isn't that bad ( but not brilliant , either )


DIVIDEND TYPEDIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)FRANKEDEX-DIV DATEPAY DATE*Interim*0.160100.00%23/08/202107/09/2021*Final*0.170100.00%11/03/202126/03/2021*Interim*0.080100.00%17/09/202005/10/2020*Final*0.150100.00%11/03/202026/03/2020*Interim*0.080100.00%02/09/201917/09/2019*Final*0.150100.00%11/03/201926/03/2019*Interim*0.080100.00%31/08/201817/09/2018*Final*0.140100.00%09/03/201826/03/2018*Interim*0.060100.00%06/09/201721/09/2017*Final*0.140100.00%09/03/201724/03/2017*Interim*0.0600.00%08/09/201623/09/2016

have a small holding in AIS  as a ( hopefully ) future copper producer  , they recently bought a working gold mine of EVN , and are ( hopefully ) using the gold production cash-flow  to help accelerate the copper project .

 also BHP was trying to increase it's copper production  , but has some many moving parts ( and acquisitions and divestments ) it is probably hard to use as a commodity trading proxy


----------



## peter2

Big day for copper overnight. I'm all over it and holding a bag full of copper miners.


----------



## Sean K

peter2 said:


> Big day for copper overnight. I'm all over it and holding a bag full of copper miners.
> 
> View attachment 137272




It's looking good for a break up from this longer term high and tight flag too.


----------



## rederob

peter2 said:


> Big day for copper overnight. I'm all over it and holding a bag full of copper miners.
> 
> View attachment 137272



The best part is copper prices are still 25 cents/lb below May 2021's record price and warehouse inventories remain tight:


Live warrants at LME, SFE and Comex total around 150k tonnes and despite a year's worth of high prices the supply response has not kept pace with demand.
Greater electrification globally and especially the now rapid take up of BEVs and charging infrastructure rollouts has provided a step change in typical demand and it's unlikely to be matched by near term supply.
I see copper prices into the $5 range this year and likely to hold.


----------



## Sean K

Copper continuing to wind up. Looks very tasty.


----------



## Sean K

Copper breakout.


----------



## divs4ever

my main copper exposure is via OZL ( 'free-carried ' ) and AIS  ( apart from the 'usual suspects ' of BHP and S32 ) and  some lesser exposure via MCR ( 'free-carried' ) where it is a co-product 

 it will be interesting to see if the copper price rise translates to a share price rise 

 ( i have an order in for extra AIS , but maybe i won't get that target now )


----------



## rederob

divs4ever said:


> my main copper exposure is via OZL ( 'free-carried ' ) and AIS  ( apart from the 'usual suspects ' of BHP and S32 ) and  some lesser exposure via MCR ( 'free-carried' ) where it is a co-product
> 
> it will be interesting to see if the copper price rise translates to a share price rise



I see a massive spike in OZL on Monday because of where both copper and gold finished overnight.  I added a small parcel of OZL a few weeks back in the mid $24 range, but see upside to over $40 by next year, with $30 being a stepping stone in coming weeks.
From everything I have tracked on the EV front, production numbers this year will double, and so too will the charging network, which means manufacturers will have to scramble to get enough copper for their motors and wiring in coming years.  There's no way I can see EV demand being met without the raw materials available, and there's no substitute for copper in an electric engine.  So I see the 2020s as being the *copper decade*, not just for NEVs, but due to renewable and green initiatives across so many industry sectors.


----------



## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> my main copper exposure is via OZL ( 'free-carried ' ) and AIS  ( apart from the 'usual suspects ' of BHP and S32 ) and  some lesser exposure via MCR ( 'free-carried' ) where it is a co-product
> 
> it will be interesting to see if the copper price rise translates to a share price rise
> 
> ( i have an order in for extra AIS , but maybe i won't get that target now )




All else being equal, technical trading _should_ see POC run after nine months of consolidation and Cu producers do very well if this break is sustained on a weekly chart.


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> All else being equal, technical trading _should_ see POC run after nine months of consolidation and Cu producers do very well if this break is sustained on a weekly chart.



rising energy costs are my concern ( wage and other costs to a lesser degree  at least near term )

 just maybe  some of the quirky mining services companies will get a tailwind  , SXE has been doing well upgrading or converting mine power plants  , and maybe things will get smoother for ANG

 but watch the local dollar and remember some companies have fixed price off-take agreements ( which might put them in a margin squeeze


----------



## Telamelo

*OGC* Gold & Copper producer should do very well..









						Oceanagold Corporation (ASX:OGC) Share Price - Market Index
					

Today’s OGC share price, stock chart and announcements. View dividend history, insider trades and ASX analyst consensus.




					www.marketindex.com.au


----------



## Telamelo

Telamelo said:


> *OGC* Gold & Copper producer should do very well..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oceanagold Corporation (ASX:OGC) Share Price - Market Index
> 
> 
> Today’s OGC share price, stock chart and announcements. View dividend history, insider trades and ASX analyst consensus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketindex.com.au



The price of Copper has hit an all time high, approaching $13,600 a tonne!


----------



## rederob

I thought OZL would have done better than it did today, but for some reason it has been sidestepped for many other mining companies.
Nevertheless, with today's record high copper price, and more increases to come, OZL's path higher seems assured imho:


Note that depending on what price instrument is being used, different prices from above appear, such as at Kitco:


----------



## Telamelo

OGC @ $2.95 +6.12% today..  still relatively cheap imo dyor

Cheers tela


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> OGC @ $2.95 +6.12% today..  still relatively cheap imo dyor
> 
> Cheers tela




This, is a beautiful thing.


----------



## Telamelo

OGC Share Technical Analysis | OceanaGold Corporation
					

Current Technical Analysis and interactive chart for $OGC stock / shares. See the current trading strategy, trend(s), rating and buy and sell signals.




					asx.swingtradebot.com


----------



## Telamelo

The dramas in South America are ongoing with NYSE listed Southern Copper Corporation reporting a cessation of mining at the Cuajone Mine in Peru after being blocked by protesters.

The mine producers around 7,000 tons of Copper annually.

The LME’s Copper industry group recommended banning new deliveries of Russian metal to LME warehouses which, if it proceeded, would send shockwaves throughout the Copper markets.

Such a move could see a chaotic and dysfunctional Copper market.

With Copper inventories at a 16-month low this might be a bridge too far and to date Europe has not placed any sanctions on Russian metal producers.

*Excerpt above from stock head newsletter

P.S. Bullish for a stock like OGC given it's Philippines Copper mine ramping up production as we speak


----------



## greggles

Goldman Sachs has flagged a copper "scarcity episode" by the end of 2022 as global stocks of the metal shrink. Goldman also expects a new record high within three month and a steady climb to US$13,000 a tonne in a years time.

Mining.com claims that Miners need to invest over $100 billion to meet copper demand.

We could be heading towards a copper supply squeeze unless new mines come into productions very quickly this year.


----------



## peter2

I've been caught off guard by the recent selloff in copper. My longer term outlook remains firmly bullish so eyeing this selloff as a pull-back opportunity. I've not sold my positions in copper producers (*OZL*, *29M*). 

My preferred short term trading instruments for copper are *COPX* and *FCX*. They look like they've hit a swing bottom overnight. Looks set for a day and swing trade tonight.


----------



## divs4ever

i am looking to add extra AIS   , have a very comfortable position in OZL ( average share price $5.17 .. 'free-carried ' ) ,   a position with BHP that feels about right until i see how the WPL deal shakes out 

 i don't trade much , so no fancy stuff in my tool-kit 

 IN THEORY  copper has a nice future  ( whether we go EV or not ) but then we have that market manipulation addiction ( on several commodities and currencies )  , i am assuming Australia will continue  to discourage any significant manufacturing locally


----------



## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> IN THEORY  copper has a nice future  ( whether we go EV or not ) but then we have that market manipulation addiction ( on several commodities and currencies )  , i am assuming Australia will continue  to discourage any significant manufacturing locally




There is actually major RISK with copper in the medium term. As in, we are running out of supply on a global scale. It takes so long for major mines to be realised I think the issue is going to get even worse. With environmentalists, indigenous, green tape, red tape, geopolitics - the supply/demand dynamic is going to be exponential for the POC in my opinion.


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> There is actually major RISK with copper in the medium term. As in, we are running out of supply on a global scale. It takes so long for major mines to be realised I think the issue is going to get even worse. With environmentalists, indigenous, green tape, red tape, geopolitics - the supply/demand dynamic is going to exponential for the POC in my opinion.



 yep ! 
 but i not only collect old silver coins ( wink )


----------



## Ann

Sean K said:


> There is actually major RISK with copper in the medium term. As in, we are running out of supply on a global scale. It takes so long for major mines to be realised I think the issue is going to get even worse. With environmentalists, indigenous, green tape, red tape, geopolitics - the supply/demand dynamic is going to be exponential for the POC in my opinion.



My weekly Copper chart suggests you are right Sean. To me, these gaps down and fail of the 200dmas is not a pretty sight and it will also have a flow-on effect on other commodities and sectors.


----------



## greggles

US$4/lb is looking like solid support for copper. The recent selloff looks to be over and a rebound appears to be in its early stages. Sentiment is bullish, with even news.com.au jumping on the copper bandwagon. The fundamentals are hard to argue with and talk of a supply squeeze won't go away.

I think we'll almost certainly see US$5/lb copper in the next 12 months, but my money is on that happening before the end of 2022.


----------



## Sean K

greggles said:


> US$4/lb is looking like solid support for copper. The recent selloff looks to be over and a rebound appears to be in its early stages. Sentiment is bullish, with even news.com.au jumping on the copper bandwagon. The fundamentals are hard to argue with and talk of a supply squeeze won't go away.
> 
> I think we'll almost certainly see US$5/lb copper in the next 12 months, but my money is on that happening before the end of 2022.
> 
> View attachment 142435




Read that article earlier today and I agree it's medium-long term going to go much higher but short term I'm on the fence. Just not sure how the likely recession is going to go and how-when China comes out of Covid. And, don't mention the war.


----------



## greggles

Sean K said:


> Read that article earlier today and I agree it's medium-long term going to go much higher but short term I'm on the fence. Just not sure how the likely recession is going to go and how-when China comes out of Covid. And, don't mention the war.




If copper breaks down under US$4/lb then I'm out, but I don't see that happening with supply tightening and sentiment high. I think the recent selloff was profit taking and Ukraine war jitters and mostly unrelated to the fundamentals.

If recession becomes an issue in the next few months then we'll see other metals like iron ore and zinc turn bearish before copper I reckon because of copper's connection to the green economy and decarbonisation. Short term, I think we're heading back to US$4.80/lb.


----------



## signalFollower

greggles said:


> US$4/lb is looking like solid support for copper. The recent selloff looks to be over and a rebound appears to be in its early stages. Sentiment is bullish, with even news.com.au jumping on the copper bandwagon. The fundamentals are hard to argue with and talk of a supply squeeze won't go away.
> 
> I think we'll almost certainly see US$5/lb copper in the next 12 months, but my money is on that happening before the end of 2022.
> 
> View attachment 142435




it seems I'll be taking an interest in Copper trends and forward looking projects too now that Antilles Gold (AAU) have updated that they'll be focussing on a couple of significant copper deposits as projects #2 and #3

at a high level I've seen that global Copper Demand is forecast for 16% increase through to 2030 and yet a 12% drop off in production due to being past peak resource of the currently actively producing mines, which probably fits AAU's focus and fast tracking in effect


----------



## signalFollower

signalFollower said:


> it seems I'll be taking an interest in Copper trends and forward looking projects too now that Antilles Gold (AAU) have updated that they'll be focussing on a couple of significant copper deposits as projects #2 and #3
> 
> at a high level I've seen that global Copper Demand is forecast for 16% increase through to 2030 and yet a 12% drop off in production due to being past peak resource of the currently actively producing mines, which probably fits AAU's focus and fast tracking in effect





company announcement today (7th June) to confirm a Reporisitioning and focus upon expiditing two large copper deposit systems


----------



## signalFollower

from today's announcement also, a busy newsflow can be expected between now and the end of 2022


----------



## rederob

signalFollower said:


> from today's announcement also, a busy newsflow can be expected between now and the end of 2022
> 
> View attachment 142617



Have you considered posting these snippets to the Antilles Gold (AAU) thread?


----------



## rederob

Despite copper's price decline, there is not a great deal available in warehouses.  Here's SFE:


And here's LME's:


Add that to Comex warehousings and there's less than 180k tonnes of copper spare, which is exceptionally tight and less than was available at end December 2021.

New mine supply is certainly coming online this year, but it has been countered by increasing usage.  And continuing to confound us is the Russian situation, so it won't take much for copper to be squeezed north again.


----------



## signalFollower

rederob said:


> Have you considered posting these snippets to the Antilles Gold (AAU) thread?



to be honest as this thread is generically called "copper" I felt it relevant to mention new potential supply projects and any timelines around those, given the whole copper / EV thing is about demand exceeding supply, especially with there being little investment in Copper mines over the past 4 decades.

Unlike another gold related thread, which is named "Gold Price - where is it heading ?"

Maybe this thread can be renamed if its intended purpose is simply price charts and projections ?


----------



## rederob

signalFollower said:


> to be honest as this thread is generically called "copper" I felt it relevant to mention new potential supply projects and any timelines around those, given the whole copper / EV thing is about demand exceeding supply, especially with there being little investment in Copper mines over the past 4 decades.
> 
> Unlike another gold related thread, which is named "Gold Price - where is it heading ?"
> 
> Maybe this thread can be renamed if its intended purpose is simply price charts and projections ?



That's fine if you can quantify the contribution of a company towards global output, but none of your three posts on Antilles tells us much at all. 
It would not be helpful to a thread like this to have every copper play mentioned without also mentioning how it affects the global trends imho.  Otherwise we bury the thread in announcements that are not even regarded as price sensitive and don't especially contribute to a better understanding of the copper market.

Regarding Antilles and its Cuba arrangement, be aware that the Company is going to need to ensure its financial dealings never run through a SWIFT mechanism or the American government will prosecute them.  It's the reason most overseas companies avoid Cuba like the plague, and so will any bank that *transacts *with Antilles as a result:


For example:


----------



## signalFollower

rederob said:


> That's fine if you can quantify the contribution of a company towards global output, but none of your three posts on Antilles tells us much at all.
> It would not be helpful to a thread like this to have every copper play mentioned without also mentioning how it affects the global trends imho.  Otherwise we bury the thread in announcements that are not even regarded as price sensitive and don't especially contribute to a better understanding of the copper market.
> 
> Regarding Antilles and its Cuba arrangement, be aware that the Company is going to need to ensure its financial dealings never run through a SWIFT mechanism or the American government will prosecute them.  It's the reason most overseas companies avoid Cuba like the plague, and so will any bank that *transacts *with Antilles as a result:
> View attachment 142651
> 
> For example:
> View attachment 142648




I am very aware of all things Antilles, especially the plans to attract Traditional finance and avoid dilution

with regards to quantifying Copper resource size, I think you'll find there is an initial Target Resource announcements planned for the next  few weeks, with the historic drilling being reviewed by Candaian consultants.  That is justthe El Pilar large Porhyry deposit, it will not include the other 40km VMS system of the New Horizons project, so actually in time there will be 2 resource updates for which significant copper is expected.

maybe is you head over to the Antilles thread and read up on all things planned including finance and operational partners, as neither China nor Canada have such sanctions and has one JV partnerer having operated in Cuba for almost 30 years


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Friday saw London Metal Exchange benchmark copper drop 2.6% to close at $US8,047 a tonne, for its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The metal touched an 18-month low of $US7,955 a tonne in trading.

LME copper was down 4.3% for the week. Comex copper ended at $US3.62 a pound for a loss of more than 3% for the week.

From the all-time high of $US10,700 a tonne (and more than $US5.039 a pound) in March after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, copper slid in May and June dropping below $US8,000 a tonne for the first time in almost 18 months on Friday.

...................................................
Friday saw bad news from Chile for the industry where plans for new, higher taxes on major miners were revealed. By some estimations, the *tax on some companies will jump 32%*.

The tax means some of the world’s biggest miners will be hit – from state-owned Codelco to BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo American Glencore and Antofagasta.

A press release from the Chilean treasury said there are two parts to the tax – one is an ad valorem tax between 1% and 2% for companies that produce between 50,000 and 200,000 tonnes of fine copper a year and a rate between 1% and 4% for those that produce more than 200,000 tonnes (BHP is in prime position for the tax – it has Escondida, the world’s biggest mine as well as two other mines in Chile).

The other part of the tax is a rate between 2% and 32% on profits for copper prices between $US2 and $US5 a pound. Both components vary based on the price of copper.

Smaller copper producers will continue with the current tax system.


----------



## signalFollower

Dona Ferentes said:


> Friday saw London Metal Exchange benchmark copper drop 2.6% to close at $US8,047 a tonne, for its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The metal touched an 18-month low of $US7,955 a tonne in trading.
> 
> LME copper was down 4.3% for the week. Comex copper ended at $US3.62 a pound for a loss of more than 3% for the week.
> 
> From the all-time high of $US10,700 a tonne (and more than $US5.039 a pound) in March after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, copper slid in May and June dropping below $US8,000 a tonne for the first time in almost 18 months on Friday.
> 
> ...................................................
> Friday saw bad news from Chile for the industry where plans for new, higher taxes on major miners were revealed. By some estimations, the *tax on some companies will jump 32%*.
> 
> The tax means some of the world’s biggest miners will be hit – from state-owned Codelco to BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo American Glencore and Antofagasta.
> 
> A press release from the Chilean treasury said there are two parts to the tax – one is an ad valorem tax between 1% and 2% for companies that produce between 50,000 and 200,000 tonnes of fine copper a year and a rate between 1% and 4% for those that produce more than 200,000 tonnes (BHP is in prime position for the tax – it has Escondida, the world’s biggest mine as well as two other mines in Chile).
> 
> The other part of the tax is a rate between 2% and 32% on profits for copper prices between $US2 and $US5 a pound. Both components vary based on the price of copper.
> 
> Smaller copper producers will continue with the current tax system.



Copper was just discussed on Ausbiz and the general thought was that Copper producers are a buy at the moment because they've already been beaten down


----------



## CityIndex

That’s an interesting insight, with copper futures down over 25% from their March peak, there could be potential for a rebound.

However, reports also suggest that traders are currently the most bearish they have been on copper since the pandemic, and given that the metal is often used as a measure of economic health, growing recession fears may drag prices even lower.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see whether this pullback continues to deepen, or if such a sharp sell-off allows for a near-term bounce.


----------



## KevinBB

Copper shares are also being promoted by another "Newsletter writer that has strong links to a broker", who shall remain un-named.

My system's analysis tells me that the price of copper has been falling, and is in a down trend, so why buy copper related shares now? Wait until that trend turns.

KH
Edit: I should declare that I am still short copper futures, otherwise I'll be in trouble.


----------



## divs4ever

i am still looking to buy ( extra ) gold ( with copper by-products ) miners  as they slide lower 

 so the holder in me hopes you are wrong , but the investor is waiting  , ready , just in case


----------



## JohnDe

KevinBB said:


> Copper shares are also being promoted by another "Newsletter writer that has strong links to a broker", who shall remain un-named.
> 
> My system's analysis tells me that the price of copper has been falling, and is in a down trend, so why buy copper related shares now? Wait until that trend turns.
> 
> KH
> Edit: I should declare that I am still short copper futures, otherwise I'll be in trouble.



I’ve watched copper for a few decades, and a bit of a history buff, copper seems to always be one of those metals that promises to make everyone rich but tends to only allow a secret few the success.


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> I’ve watched copper for a few decades, and a bit of a history buff, copper seems to always be one of those metals that promises to make everyone rich but tends to only allow a secret few the success.



it was a hard yard  to wait ( and average down ) for OZL to come good for me  ,  iron seems to be an easier to understand  commodity


----------



## Sean K

I think once the recession (depression?) we have to have is sorted, copper is going to recover very quickly - Hardly any new major discoveries in some time and the major mines are getting very long of tooth. Might be blood on the streets for a while, but that spells opportunity in this space, IMO.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Sean K said:


> I think once the recession (depression?) we have to have is sorted, copper is going to recover very quickly - Hardly any new major discoveries in some time and the major mines are getting very long of tooth. Might be blood on the streets for a while, but that spells opportunity in this space, IMO.



 It doesn't help  us  much  being the likes of(  BHP etc etc ) when Chile puts a 2- 4 % tax on Copper  and others

But as always of Course ! 
*" She'll be right in the long term"

*


----------



## Captain_Chaza

divs4ever said:


> it was a hard yard  to wait ( and average down ) for OZL to come good for me  ,  iron seems to be an easier to understand  commodity



Iron ?/Copper? Averaging down?

I do not understand what you are trying to say


----------



## divs4ever

yep  , i try to buy good companies when they are cheap ,  even cheaper , and really cheap   , and try to sell some when they are getting expensive


----------



## Sean K

Recent panel discussion:


----------



## Captain_Chaza

divs4ever said:


> yep  , i try to buy good companies when they are cheap ,  even cheaper , and really cheap   , and try to sell some when they are getting expensive



I won't ask you how well you are doing  financially* "Buying Low and Selling  Higher"*
But 
I would like to know how many fingers you have left?
and More Importantly
Have you still got 2 Thumbs?


----------



## greggles

Copper price in freefall. Copper miners getting hammered. No sign of a bottom yet as it hits $US3.50/lb.





However, copper warehouse stocks continue to decline. The scale of this selloff has surprised me given copper's solid fundamentals. Surely a bottom can't be far away now?


----------



## JohnDe

greggles said:


> Copper price in freefall. Copper miners getting hammered. No sign of a bottom yet as it hits $US3.50/lb.
> 
> 
> View attachment 143732
> 
> 
> However, copper warehouse stocks continue to decline. The scale of this selloff has surprised me given copper's solid fundamentals. Surely a bottom can't be far away now?
> 
> View attachment 143733




This seems to be a regular process - Copper price goes up a little, a few brokers start to recommend a buy, small investors get excited and buy up big, news gets out that Copper is a must buy because it is needed for ...., more investors buy, and then the price drops.


----------



## divs4ever

Captain_Chaza said:


> I won't ask you how well you are doing  financially* "Buying Low and Selling  Higher"*
> But
> I would like to know how many fingers you have left?
> and More Importantly
> Have you still got 2 Thumbs?
> View attachment 143648



 i used to be an apprentice glazier  , later  i worked with a guillotine  before modern safety measures   and later with rudimentary safety measures ( different job and different guillotine  )

 so far all digits  ( fingers , thumbs and toes ) attached  attached naturally   although the hands have several scars   , and the toes  have had some bad days as well  , ( a bit mangled  but intact )

 mind you  , a lot of friends and co-workers used to call me Lucky


----------



## divs4ever

greggles said:


> Copper price in freefall. Copper miners getting hammered. No sign of a bottom yet as it hits $US3.50/lb.
> 
> 
> View attachment 143732
> 
> 
> However, copper warehouse stocks continue to decline. The scale of this selloff has surprised me given copper's solid fundamentals. Surely a bottom can't be far away now?
> 
> View attachment 143733



 am only guessing here ,  but previously there had been reports  of massive copper stockpiles  in China  and i would guess China is sourcing some copper direct from Russia  avoiding the metal exchanges ( and using the $US )


----------



## Sean K

greggles said:


> Copper price in freefall. Copper miners getting hammered. No sign of a bottom yet as it hits $US3.50/lb.
> 
> 
> View attachment 143732
> 
> 
> However, copper warehouse stocks continue to decline. The scale of this selloff has surprised me given copper's solid fundamentals. Surely a bottom can't be far away now?
> 
> View attachment 143733




Market seems to be factoring in more than a recession to me.


----------



## peter2

Agree with the last few comments. 
Copper seems to be indicating 100% chance of a hard recession in world markets. Which I don't agree with. I think any recession will be minimal both in time and severity (unemployment is low).  IMO the fall in POC is oversold and the rally should be quick and bouncey. The "V" pattern is not my fav pattern to trade, but OK if prepared for it. 

China buying copper from Russia, under the table - hmm, this could very well be true. If true, then copper won't bounce and the reversal would be much slower and smoother (easier to trade, but not as lucrative).


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Excuse my ignorance. 

Apart from stocks, how does one trade Copper?

I have both USD and AUD denominated trading accounts with IBKR and Commsec. 

gg


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Our Problem with China goes back a long way
Back  to Federation in ~1901 from memory
A ship landed in Melbourne with 200 Chinese onboard in search of Gold or to Service the Gold Industries

They were told to go away !
Go away to  any other State !
"We are not interested in having you! HERE!"
The only State of the Commonwealth at that time they could find to accept them was the state of NZ

The other States were so  outraged  The Federation of  all the States into AUSTRALIA  was formed

 "Without New Zealand"

Of course China Buys what it can from ELSE WARE when it can and has always done so


*They remember!*


----------



## peter2

Copper, the metal can be traded using futures contracts. There are now three sizes of contracts which makes it much easier for a small account to trade/invest in copper.

Comex - *HG* - Contract size 25,000 lbs  this is the biggie.
Comex_Mini - *QC* - Contract size 12,500 lbs    (mini)
Comex_Mini - *MHG* - Contract size 2,500 lbs   (micro)

These are traded in USD.

US copper ETFs that invest in copper producers *COPX*, *CPER* (ETV)
Copper producers - Both here in Aust and US markets.


----------



## wayneL

peter2 said:


> Copper, the metal can be traded using futures contracts. There are now three sizes of contracts which makes it much easier for a small account to trade/invest in copper.
> 
> Comex - *HG* - Contract size 25,000 lbs  this is the biggie.
> Comex_Mini - *QC* - Contract size 12,500 lbs    (mini)
> Comex_Mini - *MHG* - Contract size 2,500 lbs   (micro)
> 
> These are traded in USD.
> 
> US copper ETFs that invest in copper producers *COPX*, *CPER* (ETV)
> Copper producers - Both here in Aust and US markets.



There are also the CFDs, if you can stomach the bid/ask spread


----------



## JohnDe

Captain_Chaza said:


> Our Problem with China goes back a long way
> Back  to Federation in ~1901 from memory
> A ship landed in Melbourne with 200 Chinese onboard in search of Gold or to Service the Gold Industries
> 
> They were told to go away !
> Go away to  any other State !
> "We are not interested in having you! HERE!"
> The only State of the Commonwealth at that time they could find to accept them was the state of NZ
> 
> The other States were so  outraged  The Federation of  all the States into AUSTRALIA  was formed
> 
> "Without New Zealand"
> 
> Of course China Buys what it can from ELSE WARE when it can and has always done so
> View attachment 143744
> 
> *They remember!*






> *Revealed: The real reason New Zealand didn't become part of Australia*
> 
> Kiwis value their independence, but 118 years ago, the decision could have been made to throw away that independence in favour of becoming a state of Australia.
> 
> Imagine that - No All Blacks, nuclear-free legislation nor a claim to the first person who climbed Mount Everest.
> 
> The Aussies certainly used to claim us as their own. Up until 1835, the colony of New South Wales actually governed us, until a group of Māori chiefs signed a Declaration of Independence (He Wakaputanga o te Rangatiratanga o Nu Tireni).
> 
> Our separate identity was further enhanced with the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in 1840, and although there was a protracted and bloody armed struggle between some Māori iwi and British Imperial forces after that, Australia's colonial masters still eyed New Zealand as a potential prize.
> 
> At the end of the 19th century, all six Australian colonies voted unanimously to form a federated nation and asked New Zealand if we'd like to join. So why didn't we?
> 
> The 'King Dick' theory
> 
> Doctor Felicity Barnes, a senior lecturer in New Zealand History at the University of Auckland, told Newshub that the relative importance of the many reasons has been debated for decades.
> 
> "Some have argued that the New Zealand Prime Minister of the time, Richard 'King Dick' Seddon, preferred being the leader of a nation t..........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revealed: The real reason New Zealand didn't become part of Australia
> 
> 
> In 1899, the Aussies wanted us to become a state... why did we refuse?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newshub.co.nz











						Revealed: The real reason New Zealand didn't become part of Australia
					

In 1899, the Aussies wanted us to become a state... why did we refuse?




					www.newshub.co.nz


----------



## JohnDe

peter2 said:


> Copper, the metal can be traded using futures contracts. There are now three sizes of contracts which makes it much easier for a small account to trade/invest in copper.
> 
> Comex - *HG* - Contract size 25,000 lbs  this is the biggie.
> Comex_Mini - *QC* - Contract size 12,500 lbs    (mini)
> Comex_Mini - *MHG* - Contract size 2,500 lbs   (micro)
> 
> These are traded in USD.
> 
> US copper ETFs that invest in copper producers *COPX*, *CPER* (ETV)
> Copper producers - Both here in Aust and US markets.




I've been keeping an eye on COPX for a while, and have a very small parcel, pricing doesn't seem to follow demand as much as one would presume. Look at the 10 year chart and the volume from increase in the past few years, just about when EV's started to get traction.


----------



## signalFollower

Sean K said:


> Market seems to be factoring in more than a recession to me.



my view is it's an over-reactions to China's extended full lockdown approach with COVID, which is a politically motivated thing so as to not make president Xi look silly by going back on his word.     After the November (??) re-electrion of President Xi they'll probably shift policy to something a representing the rest of the world's approach and manufacturing output / copper consumptions will resume


----------



## signalFollower

can anyone help with this question:

Is a potential 500 million tonne porphyry copper desposit deemed a large one ?


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Absolutely ginormous.

I’m buying AAU tomorrow if that is the case.


----------



## signalFollower

Tyre Kicker said:


> Absolutely ginormous.
> 
> I’m buying AAU tomorrow if that is the case.



last time I refrenced a specific company the Copper thread wasn't interested in that potential supply being confirmed, but anyway I did post a video over on the AAU thread if you want to watch it and draw your own conclusions.

I did think 500 million tonnes would be a substantial deposit, thanks for your response.


----------



## peter2

Copper rallying off yesterday's low (3.30/lb). My initial target is 3.80 but if it goes past, then 4.00 is on.




Bought an initial position last evening (US morning) after thinking that price was getting closer to cost of production + reasonable margin. 
All in cost from a large producer (Chile) was 2.31 /lb. I added 10% for rising costs (2.55). At the low 3.30 the margin was only 0.75 (~30%). Bought more today at 3.50 raising stop to 3.38. 

This rally in copper might start demand for other resources. If this rally fails then we're not at the bottom yet.


----------



## Sean K

signalFollower said:


> can anyone help with this question:
> 
> Is a potential 500 million tonne porphyry copper desposit deemed a large one ?




Around 1Bt @0.5% for 3Mt CuEq (usually with Au), with a high grade core around 1% is a start. XAM and HCH both have these but they're in the toilet due to location. A range of projects from HCH and XAM presentations below. Most of these are porphyry.


----------



## signalFollower

Sean K said:


> Around 1Bt @0.5% for 3Mt CuEq (usually with Au), with a high grade core around 1% is a start. XAM and HCH both have these but they're in the toilet due to location. A range of projects from HCH and XAM presentations below. Most of these are porphyry.
> 
> 
> View attachment 143831
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 143832



 thanks for these they are great, because the drilling is historic it cant be spoken to according to ASX listing rules, but there's a hint of suggestion in the recent interview and this month's confirmation drilling is just that, for the purpose of landing on a JORC compliant resource / grades

the oxide cap that sits above the deeper porhyry apparenlt has much higher grades, so it'll be a case of whether they persist to depth, hence the drilling


----------



## cribmogul

For my two cents copper looks a bit challenged right now. I'm becoming more bearish. We could be at the start of an early stage bear trend now. Because of its extremely widespread applications everywhere I don't think this bodes well for economies. Let's see what happens.

for traders: 
Copper can be tough to trade. Buy and sell can turn at the drop of a hat in any direction market. Using very small position sizes and/or having a very large account helps manage risk. If you are trading in the right direction at the beginning of a long trend and ride it carefully you can profit well.

Good luck all. this is not specific financial advice just my opinion on the forum 🙂


----------



## cribmogul

wayneL said:


> There are also the CFDs, if you can stomach the bid/ask spread



High grade copper (A$1) contracts on IG markets platform are available. 

I trade on IG, the market isn't too difficult to understand. Its always challenging to profit, but it's never boring with the price fluctuations..

I don't have any other affiliation with IG at all otherwise.


----------



## signalFollower

cribmogul said:


> High grade copper (A$1) contracts on IG markets platform are available.
> 
> I trade on IG, the market isn't too difficult to understand. Its always challenging to profit, but it's never boring with the price fluctuations..
> 
> I don't have any other affiliation with IG at all otherwise.




only my opinion - but CFDs have you trading against highly tuned algos, on high cost leverage designed to benefit the house.

I have experienced CFD "brokers" do these things:

- close down the market on you because the odds weren't in their favour
- delay market opening times because the odds weren't in their favourduring anticipated high volatility
- sniper you during those special little "extended balancing up" periods that go beyond / before actual underlying market times
- use "tools" like declare a Sell only market
- use "tools" like all open positions will automatically be closed and settled for cash at the end of the trading week
- use "tools" like as of this date we will be revising (down) our margin limits on these (popular) holdings

It hardly comes accross as free market forces, but rather a "damn those investors/traders it seems they were correct, so how can we limit the damage"

but sure if you want access to spot prices I get it


----------



## cribmogul

peter2 said:


> Agree with the last few comments.
> Copper seems to be indicating 100% chance of a hard recession in world markets. Which I don't agree with. I think any recession will be minimal both in time and severity (unemployment is low).  IMO the fall in POC is oversold and the rally should be quick and bouncey. The "V" pattern is not my fav pattern to trade, but OK if prepared for it.
> 
> China buying copper from Russia, under the table - hmm, this could very well be true. If true, then copper won't bounce and the reversal would be much slower and smoother (easier to trade, but not as lucrative).



Good opinion 👍


----------



## cribmogul

signalFollower said:


> only my opinion - but CFDs have you trading against highly tuned algos, on high cost leverage designed to benefit the house.
> 
> I have experienced CFD "brokers" do these things:
> 
> - close down the market on you because the odds weren't in their favour
> - delay market opening times because the odds weren't in their favourduring anticipated high volatility
> - sniper you during those special little "extended balancing up" periods that go beyond / before actual underlying market times
> - use "tools" like declare a Sell only market
> - use "tools" like all open positions will automatically be closed and settled for cash at the end of the trading week
> - use "tools" like as of this date we will be revising (down) our margin limits on these (popular) holdings
> 
> It hardly comes accross as free market forces, but rather a "damn those investors/traders it seems they were correct, so how can we limit the damage"
> 
> but sure if you want access to spot prices I get it



Yes good opinion, there are many obstacles to overcome 👍


----------



## peter2

Another indication that we may have seen the bottom in copper. Both Pt and Pd were in demand late in the week.


----------



## divs4ever

peter2 said:


> Another indication that we may have seen the bottom in copper. Both Pt and Pd were in demand late in the week.
> 
> View attachment 143903



expecting Russia to limit exports ( to unfriendly nations/markets ) , perhaps ?

or maybe someone has crunched the numbers and realized  the EV revolution ( in the West ) will be delayed


----------



## Captain_Chaza

peter2 said:


> Another indication that we may have seen the bottom in copper. Both Pt and Pd were in demand late in the week.
> 
> View attachment 143903




*Are you suggesting we "INVEST RESPONSIBLY" ?
Using all the Fundamental knowledge  we possess and can gather in a short term 




OR USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS we have  learned to trust over many years




AS Always INVEST RESPONSIBLY, DYOR and trust no-one*


----------



## peter2

The latest rally in copper has failed to carry on. Something ventured, nothing gained. 

Price has now made a new low near $3.25 /lb. It's <10% above the $3 level which should provide strong support. We'll see. I'll wait until the price attempts to rally again.


----------



## wayneL

peter2 said:


> The latest rally in copper has failed to carry on. Something ventured, nothing gained.
> 
> Price has now made a new low near $3.25 /lb. It's <10% above the $3 level which should provide strong support. We'll see. I'll wait until the price attempts to rally again.



Interesting view the correlation with other industrial base metals, and indeed PMs... Particularly in view of inflationary pressures + DXY strength.

Personally, I do have an overall thesis for the next 6 months but equally feel like a mule at a new gate.... Unpicking this lock with no more than a dexterous nose will not be easy.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

peter2 said:


> The latest rally in copper has failed to carry on. Something ventured, nothing gained.
> 
> Price has now made a new low near $3.25 /lb. It's <10% above the $3 level which should provide strong support. We'll see. I'll wait until the price attempts to rally again.



Thanks @peter2 .

I really cannot see Cu or the REM's rallying meaningfully for us investors in Australia, while the threat of War escalating in Ukraine, and China causing supply chain blocks because of Covid, persists. War and its consequences requires oil and steel, and then Cu kicks in. China needs iron and coal for buildings and bedding so that the cousins at the top of the Communist Party don't get necked by the dissatisfied cousins at the bottom of the CCP.

I can very well see $3.00 /lb. being a support for Cu. 

I'm avoiding small spec miners atm. until all the kerfuffle appears to be settling. Large miners and energy on the other hand ... 

gg


----------



## eskys

The greenback is strong. I'm avoiding all commodities at the moment......for that matter, I'm avoiding everything until there are signs that the market is turning around. I'm so lost, I can't trade anymore.........


----------



## peter2

Agree, the DXY strength has knocked all commodities for six. Their prices continue to weaken as the USD strength persists. Euro now at parity with the USD.  Soon it'll be lower. Wheat back at low levels in spite of the Ukraine crisis.

Yes, a rally in copper price will need China as a buyer. This'll only happen if Xi decides to stimulate the economy. Won't happen if he sticks to his illogical zero Covid policy and enforces continual lockdowns. 

The better course of action is to wait this out and see how it resolves.  

@eskys  yep, feel your frustration. I've returned to day trading US.


----------



## eskys

Good luck Peter, a hard worker  like you deserves reward. I know not head from tail re: US market. Hard enough locally, let alone US for me. You need the knowledge to deal with overseas market, and to stay awake!


----------



## JohnDe

There's too much copper around, even with the world going electric, our miners have no issues finding it.



> *Copper market to be well supplied in 2022*
> 
> The global refined copper market is expected to be in a significant surplus in 2022, following a small supply deficit in 2021.
> 
> The 2022 surplus is based on the assumption of a 3.9% increase in refined output, the biggest increase in eight years, with copper demand expected to see a 2.4% increase, ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir said in a note Dec. 7.
> 
> Even though a rise in demand is anticipated, this will not be enough to absorb the increase in supply,


----------



## Captain_Chaza

The CONUNDRUM is that all mining contracts as I understand it 
are still written in the "Reserve Currency" of the day
IE: The USD / The BIG Buck/  the Greenback ATM

Seems to me that Most Miners have  hedged their bets the wrong way
It's as simple as that
They  seem to sail the FX with no  Idea of Technical Analysis

Too Busy to do the hard yards , I guess


----------



## eskys

Captain_Chaza said:


> The CONUNDRUM is that all mining contracts as I understand it
> are still written in the "Reserve Currency" of the day
> IE: The USD / The BIG Buck/  the Greenback ATM
> 
> Seems to me that Most Miners have  hedged their bets the wrong way
> It's as simple as that
> They  seem to sail the FX with no  Idea of Technical Analysis
> 
> Too Busy to do the hard yards , I guess
> 
> View attachment 144056



I don't know it has something to do with TA or too busy to do the hard yards. I think sometimes there are 'missing links' and we sometimes forget how one department influences another or how one factor can affect another............just my two cents worth, Captain


----------



## Captain_Chaza

eskys said:


> I don't know it has something to do with TA or too busy to do the hard yards. I think sometimes there are 'missing links' and we sometimes forget how one department influences another or how one factor can affect another............just my two cents worth, Captain



All I am saying is
"Technical Analysis is the Hard Way"

The Easy Way is to do as little "Fundamental analysis"  as you can to keep your job

I used to ask myself  every week  AND STILL DO to this day

Did I manage my business at my best?

Would you employ this manager? /Financial Advisor?
 to manage your Ship /Financial Interests  for NEXT WEEK and beyond?


----------



## Smurf1976

Captain_Chaza said:


> Seems to me that Most Miners have hedged their bets the wrong way
> It's as simple as that
> They seem to sail the FX with no Idea of Technical Analysis



Always remember Pasminco.

A sound business as such but completely blown up through hedging that went wrong. Ended the existence of the company.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Smurf1976 said:


> Always remember Pasminco.
> 
> A sound business as such but completely blown up through hedging that went wrong. Ended the existence of the company.






I Remember Well!


----------



## eskys

TA is hard work, and in this game, it's important to have a long memory. Unfortunately, mine is too short. I can't remember how Pasminco hit the wall so many moons ago


----------



## Captain_Chaza

eskys said:


> TA is hard work, and in this game, it's important to have a long memory. Unfortunately, mine is too short. I can't remember how Pasminco hit the wall so many moons ago



I sometimes forget I've got children


----------



## eskys

Haha, Captain, you need to be patient with the younger ones. We fall off the bandwagon more often than you old geezers.

Hope you've found your other half...beautiful Anne. Hope she's ok, I've been thinking a lot about her wondering how she is, and wishing her well.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

eskys said:


> Haha, Captain, you need to be patient with the younger ones. We fall off the bandwagon more often than you old geezers.
> 
> Hope you've found your other half...beautiful Anne. Hope she's ok, I've been thinking a lot about her wondering how she is, and wishing her well.



I am very saddened to say  that my 1st Mate Ann is MIA and feared Lost at Sea
We all miss her greatly and wish her well


----------



## eskys

I hope Ann sees this Captain, and knows how well we think of her..............Wishing you a Speedy Recovery, Ann. Come back soon, sending you hugs and kisses...........


----------



## peter2

Copper, gold, silver and all other metals are being hammered (Smithy pun) again today. 
DXY surging higher. There's no bottom in sight yet.


----------



## greggles

The rebound in the copper price could be upon us very soon if reports of looming supply shortfalls are accurate.









						A coming copper shortage could derail the energy transition, report finds
					

Demand for copper is set to soar as renewable energy such as wind and solar become more popular. But there's one problem: We don't have enough.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Like many economically sensitive assets, copper is sending an extraordinarily bearish signal right now. - WSJ









						Dr. Copper’s Patients Are All Ill
					

Like many economically sensitive assets, copper is sending an extraordinarily bearish signal right now.




					www.wsj.com
				





peter2 said:


> Copper, gold, silver and all other metals are being hammered (Smithy pun) again



though, short term, its forging ahead 


> _Copper prices are about 3% higher today on a short-covering but it's been a rough ride from $4.60 in early June to $3.20 today_


----------



## Dona Ferentes

peter2 said:


> Copper, gold, silver and all other metals are being hammered (Smithy pun) again today.



Sure, it's beaten up.


Dona Ferentes said:


> though, short term, its forging ahead



 Will it last?


----------



## greggles

Dona Ferentes said:


> Sure, it's beaten up.
> 
> Will it last?




If Europe and the US head towards recession, copper will resume its downtrend. If we get signs of economic recovery, it will head north again.

My gut feeling is downside is limited due to supply side issues coupled with increasing demand. Global macroeconomic turmoil is the primary reason for the recent price decline. Long term the strong fundamentals remain intact. It will be a volatile second half of 2022, but my view is copper will come good in 2023 and beyond.


----------



## divs4ever

peter2 said:


> Copper, gold, silver and all other metals are being hammered (Smithy pun) again today.
> DXY surging higher. There's no bottom in sight yet.



 am carefully looking  for opportunities ( to add more )  if no new iron , copper and other base-metals mined ( for whatever reason .. like exorbitant costs or taxes )  your civilization goes down the abyss ( not cost effective  to recycle all your society's needs )


----------



## divs4ever

no ( new ) copper equals no energy revolution nor technological revolution 

 but back to the Stone Age is always an option ( even if an unpleasant one )


----------



## moXJO

Government stimulus is the big 'bull runner'.
Still a while off, if at all imo.

In the meanwhile any commod stocks I dribble into need to survive at these prices.


----------



## JohnDe

JohnDe said:


> There's too much copper around, even with the world going electric, our miners have no issues finding it.







> *Are We Going to Run Out of Copper?*
> 
> It Is Highly Improbable!
> Since 1960, there has always been, on average, 38 years of reserves, and significantly greater amounts of known resources (USGS data). In addition, recycling, innovation and mining exploration continue to contribute to the long-term availability of copper.
> 
> Despite increased demand for copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown, and there is more identified copper available to the world than at any other time in history.
> 
> In the period 2010-2020, 207 million tonnes of copper have been mined. In that same period however, reserves have grown by
> 240 million tonnes to 870,000 million tonnnes copper . This reflects additional exploration, technological advances and the evolving economics of mining.
> 
> Technology has a key role to play in addressing many of the challenges faced by new copper production.  Known and as yet unknown innovations will ensure new mine production continues to provide vital copper supplies.
> 
> In addition copper recycling plays an important role in copper availability since today’s primary copper is tomorrow’s recycled material. Unlike other commodities such as energy or food, copper is not “consumed”. Copper is one of the few raw materials which can be recycled repeatedly without any loss of performance, and key stakeholders such as policy-makers, scrap collectors, copper producers and recyclers must all focus on ensuring that yesterday’s metal is recycled and re-used.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Long Term Availability of Copper
> 
> 
> Long Term Availability of CopperCopper Reserves and ResourcesTypically, the future availability of minerals is based on the concept of reserves and resources. Reserves are deposits that have been discovered, evaluated and assessed to be economically profitable to mine. Resources are far bigger...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> icsg.org


----------



## moXJO

Ok can't quote John's post for some reason.

But that's an interesting take. Everywhere else is pushing that copper is going to be scarce. Was watching a video of some big hedgefunds pushing the "scarcity" line as well.


----------



## greggles

I don't think anyone is denying that there is plenty of copper under the ground. However, until it is mined and processed it is effectively useless. Copper supply means copper that is ready for sale. It takes a long time and a lot of money to get copper out of the ground and the lower the copper price is the less copper will be mined because the economics of doing so become less favourable.

My thesis is increasing demand will pull the copper price up by its bootstraps. Companies with lower cost copper operations will do extremely well. But demand won't go away and supply will have trouble keeping up. As a result those looking to buy copper will have to pay more.


----------



## peter2

*FCX* - Freeport-McMoRan missed earnings today, revenue also down due to falling copper price. Expected market to hammer *FCX* price after the miss but so far it hasn't. Only 0.1% down (that's nothing). If *FCX* doesn't fall by >2% during the US session then I'm assuming that the price of copper has most likely hit the bottom (currently $3.30/lb, recent low 3.13).


----------



## frugal.rock

I'm surprised it's hit so low so fast. 
Was out of everything copper before it breached $4
IMO, quite clearly getting primed for the next run up.



greggles said:


> My thesis is increasing demand will pull the copper price up by its bootstraps.



Would agree, that and increased smelting/energy costs will pull it up alone without demand...


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Syncretica has the under https://syncretica.substack.com/p/meme-commodities


----------



## divs4ever

moXJO said:


> Ok can't quote John's post for some reason.
> 
> But that's an interesting take. Everywhere else is pushing that copper is going to be scarce. Was watching a video of some big hedgefunds pushing the "scarcity" line as well.




 yes i have seen those opinions as well  ( on the scarcity of copper ) but then sometimes those hedge-funds sell narratives  that are slow to eventuate  , like the 'excitement ' to mine uranium  around late 2010 

 copper miners ( with the exception of OZL   for me ) are not showing  the investor support you would expect   for the proposed 'electric/electronic  revolution  , maybe they will have plenty after they stop minting coins


----------



## greggles

Bottomed out at US$3.15/lb, now tentatively drifting north. Needs a catalyst for a more substantial rebound.


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> Ok can't quote John's post for some reason.
> 
> But that's an interesting take. Everywhere else is pushing that copper is going to be scarce. Was watching a video of some big hedgefunds pushing the "scarcity" line as well.




Those same hedgefunds that play the market to their benefit?


----------



## frugal.rock

30 day LME warehouse levels near a high, interestingly enough though,
other similar metals at a 30 day low... 🤔

I'm guessing that the supply will dwindle again on the cheaper prices.

For some perspective, the long term price average looks to be only a little lower than current prices.
That screams to me that copper is probably a bargain right now...
I won't mention Chile geopolitics either...woops, sorry.🤪😹


----------



## JohnDe

greggles said:


> I don't think anyone is denying that there is plenty of copper under the ground. However, until it is mined and processed it is effectively useless. Copper supply means copper that is ready for sale. It takes a long time and a lot of money to get copper out of the ground and the lower the copper price is the less copper will be mined because the economics of doing so become less favourable.
> 
> My thesis is increasing demand will pull the copper price up by its bootstraps. Companies with lower cost copper operations will do extremely well. But demand won't go away and supply will have trouble keeping up. As a result those looking to buy copper will have to pay more.




The facts show that mining has been keeping up with demand for decades. Copper supplies is not an issue, people artificially keeping prices high by storing it has been the issue in the past.

As I've mentioned before, I've been watching copper for decades and only those in the know get rich from it.



> Copper is a fairly common element, with an estimated concentration of 50–70 ppm (0.005–0.007 percent) in earth's crust (1 kg of copper per 15–20 tons of crustal rock).
> 
> Julian Simon was a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a professor of business and economics. In his book _The Ultimate Resource 2_ (first printed in 1981 and reprinted in 1998), he extensively criticizes the notion of "peak resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century, "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of copper was not rising but falling over the long run. For example, even though world production of copper in 1950 was only one-eighth of what it was in early-2000s, known reserves were also much lower at the time – around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most.
> 
> Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of known reserves is deeply flawed,[39] as it does not take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, raising known reserves. Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago, occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% copper by weight. Yet, despite the material being far less widespread, the cost of, for example, a copper pot was vastly lower in the late 20th century than 5000 years ago.


----------



## greggles

JohnDe said:


> The facts show that mining has been keeping up with demand for decades. Copper supplies is not an issue, people artificially keeping prices high by storing it has been the issue in the past.
> 
> As I've mentioned before, I've been watching copper for decades and only those in the know get rich from it.




Well, supply and demand have a way of finding an equilibrium, and that equilibrium is price. When there is more demand for copper than there is copper being mined, the price increases and vice versa.

The below 45 year copper price chart shows the price swings that illustrate how the imbalances between supply and demand have played out.

If there is some other factor at work other than supply, demand, inflation and global macroeconomics then feel free to elaborate further.


----------



## JohnDe

greggles said:


> Well, supply and demand have a way of finding an equilibrium, and that equilibrium is price. When there is more demand for copper than there is copper being mined, the price increase and vice versa.
> 
> The below 45 year copper price chart shows the price swings that illustrate how the imbalances between supply and demand have played out.
> 
> If there is some other factor at work other than supply, demand, inflation and global macroeconomics then feel free to elaborate further.
> 
> 
> View attachment 144399




I'm not sure what you are saying. That chart looks like the chart of any 60 - 100 year stock market, precious metals and minerals chart. Of course the price is going to go up, for the reasons you mention " demand, inflation and global macroeconomics", as well as those that you don't; market manipulation, war, disaster.

My original comment "there's too much copper around, even with the world going electric, our miners have no issues finding it", was made because for the last 30 years I have seen cries of an imminent copper shortage and I'm still waiting to see that come about. I have seen the market manipulated, I can't remember the specific time, I think it the 90's. A Japanese company had been stockpiling copper to cause an artificially high price, like the diamond industry. It worked for a while but then came crashing down.

Copper is very abundant, it is also very easily recycled, and technology keeps finding more efficient ways to dig it up and process it. At a worst case estimate, it's going to be about 15 years before copper supplies become an issue.

The facts are all out their for all to see, along with the stories of small investors thinking that they'd get rich from it. More have busted than have boomed, from copper.

All I'm saying is be careful of all the copper hype, it's not new.











						A History of Copper Prices | Winton
					

Perhaps the most striking manifestation of the 2000s copper boom was the sight of charred human remains dangling from power cables.




					www.winton.com


----------



## greggles

I think we are talking past each other. When people talk of a copper shortage they are talking about copper that has been mined, processed and is ready for sale to those who wish to purchase it. They are not talking about copper ore that resides hundreds of metres under the Earth. The former is useful, the latter is not although may be in the future once millions of dollars has been spent digging it out of the ground and processing it into a form that can be used for industrial production.

Copper below the Earth is plentiful, copper mined and processed is not necessarily so. Copper mines take many years and mountains of capital to plan, build and then operate.





__





						Copper Mining and Processing: Life Cycle of a Mine
					






					superfund.arizona.edu


----------



## JohnDe

greggles said:


> I think we are talking past each other. When people talk of a copper shortage they are talking about copper that has been mined, processed and is ready for sale to those who wish to purchase it. They are not talking about copper ore that resides hundreds of metres under the Earth. The former is useful, the latter is not although may be in the future once millions of dollars has been spent digging it out of the ground and processing it into a form that can be used for industrial production.
> 
> Copper below the Earth is plentiful, copper mined and processed is not necessarily so. Copper mines take many years and mountains of capital to plan, build and then operate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Copper Mining and Processing: Life Cycle of a Mine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> superfund.arizona.edu




From your post I'm gathering that you think that there is going to be a issue with mining the copper, which will cause a shortage and a price boom.

What I have been saying is that there is many recorded locations and reserves of copper, technology has caught up to allow miners to extract the copper at low cost, and we will have no issues in geting to those copper reserves at profitable costs for the forseeable future.

*Are We Going to Run Out of Copper?*​​_It Is Highly Improbable!_​_Since 1960, there has always been, on average, 38 years of reserves, and significantly greater amounts of known resources (USGS data). In addition, recycling, innovation and mining exploration continue to contribute to the long-term availability of copper._​​_*Despite increased demand for copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown, and there is more identified copper available to the world than at any other time in history.*_​​_In the period 2010-2020, 207 million tonnes of copper have been mined. In that same period however, reserves have grown by_​_240 million tonnes to 870,000 million tonnnes copper . This reflects additional exploration, technological advances and the evolving economics of mining._​​_*Technology has a key role to play in addressing many of the challenges faced by new copper production. Known and as yet unknown innovations will ensure new mine production continues to provide vital copper supplies.*_​​_In addition copper recycling plays an important role in copper availability since today’s primary copper is tomorrow’s recycled material. Unlike other commodities such as energy or food, copper is not “consumed”. Copper is one of the few raw materials which can be recycled repeatedly without any loss of performance, and key stakeholders such as policy-makers, scrap collectors, copper producers and recyclers must all focus on ensuring that yesterday’s metal is recycled and re-used._​


----------



## greggles

JohnDe said:


> From your post I'm gathering that you think that there is going to be a issue with mining the copper, which will cause a shortage and a price boom.




Not exactly. I think that the transition to green energy will exponentially increase the demand for copper and that supply will have trouble keeping up due to the amount of time and capital it takes to get it out of the ground. 









						World copper deficit may reach 9.9 million tons by 2035 — News — GMK Center
					

The transition to green energy increases demand, which cannot be met without the introduction of new capacities




					gmk.center
				












						Mining Weekly: Copper shortages to hamper net-zero targets - report
					






					www.tasekomines.com


----------



## frugal.rock

General internet 2019? info.
1.4 billion cars ice on road
600 million other combustion engines
Let's say 1 billion  of em to be made over x amount of time
1 billion X 25 kg copper = 25 million tons of copper

Wiki
"Copper demand
Total world production is about
18 million metric tons per year.
Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating."

Make of it what you will.
Or a projected chart could probably be found on the net.


----------



## JohnDe

frugal.rock said:


> General internet 2019? info.
> 1.4 billion cars ice on road
> 600 million other combustion engines
> Let's say 1 billion  of em to be made over x amount of time
> 1 billion X 25 kg copper = 25 million tons of copper
> 
> Wiki
> "Copper demand
> Total world production is about
> 18 million metric tons per year.
> Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating."
> 
> Make of it what you will.
> Or a projected chart could probably be found on the net.




EV's are not the first technology to create high demand for copper, yet the world keeps finding and processing more copper.

The only thing that copper has going for it at the moment is the fear of recession forcing the prices lower than usual. Buying now is probably a good investment, but there is not going to be a shortage of copper anytime soon. And ask yourself this; why have the other minerals required for EV production gone up while copper falls? Why are battery and vehicle manufacturers racing to secure lithium, nickel and cobalt, but not copper?

DYOR, I'm no expert, just someone that doesn't like to lose money following the crowd.


----------



## rcw1

Copper and China









						China property stimulus to rescue copper demand, but not yet
					

Global slowdown is expected to see a slide and trigger a stimulus that could match the 4 trillion yuan package implemented after the 2008 financial crash.




					www.mining.com
				




Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## frugal.rock

JohnDe said:


> And ask yourself this; why have the other minerals required for EV production gone up while copper falls? Why are battery and vehicle manufacturers racing to secure lithium, nickel and cobalt, but not copper?



Because they dumb... Blissful ignorance on their part. That may change as they start to make motors in-house more.
Current LME levels due to China housing, yes.
Not arguing copper supplies, yes it's plentiful.
Just stating the price will go back up and then some.
Unless, the world gets serious on copper recycling beforehand








						Industry expected to increase in-house EV motor production
					

Reuters charts, maps and graphics



					graphics.reuters.com


----------



## redsmartie

Here is my copper chart: -

- The price will not move by itself
- The price is correct
- Everybody knows Copper inventory is low at one end and high at the other

Just depends where you buy your copper, some even steal it from the live power poles. 

DYOR


----------



## JohnDe

redsmartie said:


> Here is my copper chart: -
> 
> - The price will not move by itself
> - The price is correct
> - Everybody knows Copper inventory is low at one end and high at the other
> 
> Just depends where you buy your copper, some even steal it from the live power poles.
> 
> DYOR
> 
> View attachment 145026




Copper is like diamonds, miner’s keep digging it up, financiers keep fudging the inventory books.


----------



## redsmartie

Kitco metals has LME inventory seesawing up and down, not sure where the goldilocks zone is for LME copper but I guess I should say....  DYOR


----------



## frugal.rock

So, it appears LME levels have dropped on average 30-50% over the last 5 years, or around 6 to 10% per year using a level from 5 years ago.

Expected tonnage usage per year is expected to increase at least 5% per year over the next 15 years or so.


----------



## aus_trader

Don't really know where the prices will fluctuate in the short to mid term...

But I think there will be increased copper demand if the world is slowly moving away from fossil fuels and in with the electrification of everything from EVs to solar/wind powered grid etc. EV motors and wind turbines use tons of Cu for example. Is there going to be enough supply from mining and recycling well into the future ?


----------



## Knobby22

aus_trader said:


> Don't really know where the prices will fluctuate in the short to mid term...
> 
> But I think there will be increased copper demand if the world is slowly moving away from fossil fuels and in with the electrification of everything from EVs to solar/wind powered grid etc. EV motors and wind turbines use tons of Cu for example. Is there going to be enough supply from mining and recycling well into the future ?



Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.


----------



## Value Collector

Knobby22 said:


> Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.



I wouldn’t say copper/Aluminium substitution sets a ceiling on the copper price, because there are so many areas where copper can’t be substituted, but substitution is a factor that will destroy some demand as the price rises.

So it doesn’t put a ceiling on the price, but it does act a bit like an elastic band putting more downward pressure to the price the higher it goes.

There is also factors that increase supply of scrap as the price rises.


----------



## divs4ever

Knobby22 said:


> Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.



 but isn't energy costs  the big millstone around aluminum's neck  ( more so than copper ) surely energy costs  will track the price of copper  unless the world switches to more nuclear power


----------



## aus_trader

On a long term chart (weekly) Cu price has found support on previous major resistance area in 2018 and bounced...


----------



## JohnDe

"..on a year over year basis Copper prices are down 21%" Cathy Wood 

'Copper futures dropped to their lowest in a month below $3.40 per pound on Friday and were down nearly 8%' Trading Economics


----------



## Sean K

Start saddling up punters.


----------



## signalFollower

Sean K said:


> Start saddling up punters.
> 
> View attachment 146768



with the low AISC anticipated from  having the government as a JV partner in an already low wages environment, I'll take $1300 / lb with my AAU holdings


----------



## peter2

Copper showing some demand at 3.30. Hoping it would make a new low before seeing buyers. China's needs remain low so POC could go lower. I'm definitely a buyer btn 3.10 - 3.20 but will have to use *US ETFs* or *FCX* as *OZL* isn't responding to POC atm. *29M* is a bit thin and *SFR* has huge power costs to worry about in Europe. Not interested in copper wannabe's.


----------



## JohnDe

Is copper the cannery in the mine for the world economy? Nice increase overnight, if it wasn't for the issues with Russia, inflation and news of a major recession, I'd say that things must be looking up with copper demand increasing for world production demands. I might buy some, then again....

 Good luck to those picking when the cannery is happy or euphoric from lack of oxygen.


----------



## KevinBB

JohnDe said:


> Is copper the cannery in the mine for the world economy? Nice increase overnight, if it wasn't for the issues with Russia, inflation and news of a major recession, I'd say that thing must be looking up with copper demand increasing for world production demands.



Hi @JohnDe - you may well be right, but I think that Wednesday night's move was more to do with the movement in the USD following the UK central bank's intervention in the markets. All the commodities I trade, including copper, gained substantially during the session, so I really don't think there was a change in the fundamental views of traders.

I've seen articles in the past few days about copper supply, and the time it takes to get new production up and running. Maybe they are right, so I need to go looking for Aussie copper stocks. We'll see.

KH


----------



## KevinBB

Hello again @JohnDe  - It turns out your charts were right. Nice intra-day move in copper during the Australian night.

I'm still short, system looks back a bit longer than one day.

KH


----------



## greggles

Some more bullish news for copper. European copper buyers will be paying record premiums in 2023 due to Russian copper being subject to sanctions. A substantial supply gap is expected next year due to the amount of Russian copper that is usually imported into Europe.









						Column: Record European copper premiums as buyers shut out Russia
					

European copper buyers are going to be paying a lot more to get their metal next year.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## peter2

I remain a copper bull but understand that I may have to wait a while. China growth has stalled, LME stockpiles are rising and the POC is drifting lower. POC will rally again though.


----------



## divs4ever

peter2 said:


> I remain a copper bull but understand that I may have to wait a while. China growth has stalled, LME stockpiles are rising and the POC is drifting lower. POC will rally again though.



 but why are LME stock-piles rising ??

 ( the obvious potential reasons  , 1. China  has stopped buying through the LME , 2.  manufacturing in Europe is entering a death spiral )

the West want green , but also want the world to make it so without EU pain  , that sounds like a recipe for disappointment  to me


----------



## greggles

divs4ever said:


> but why are LME stock-piles rising ??




From the article I linked to above:



> The dependence on Russian metal is compounded by the composition of LME stocks. The LME's discussion paper showed that over 60% of available copper stocks in its warehouse system at the end of September were Russian brand.




Europe is heavily dependent on Russian copper so they will have to start sourcing the metal from alternate sources.


----------



## divs4ever

greggles said:


> From the article I linked to above:
> 
> 
> 
> Europe is heavily dependent on Russian copper so they will have to start sourcing the metal from alternate sources.



 alternatives to Russia  , that is going to hurt  ( most other nations are facing rising energy costs )

 and in the euro continues to slide , so doubly so 

 interesting times ahead   , this might be the Asian Century (especially in the Middle East moves in that direction)


----------



## Sean K

This potential global recession has stalled copper, but if you've got a medium term view, the current situation with copper plays represents an amazing opportunity. Just have to be capable of withstanding some significant short term DD, I guess. Or, you're short term trading. Or, a combo of both.


----------



## peter2

I agree with the promising outlook for copper but also realise that this potential demand for copper has been delayed by 6-12 months.


----------



## divs4ever

peter2 said:


> I agree with the promising outlook for copper but also realise that this potential demand for copper has been delayed by 6-12 months.




 i am thinking the delay will be longer  , but i have a very nice position in OZL ( unless BHP ruins the party ) and hold AIS  which i don't expect to have taxable profits within the next two years 

 good luck


----------



## noirua




----------



## Dona Ferentes

There is a new ASX listed ETF, developed in Nov 2022, that claims it is a pureplay index for global copper miners:






						WIRE - GlobalX Copper Miners ETF
					

Global X Copper Miners ETF (WIRE)   This is a new ETF established as a pureplay exposure to copper miners; just launched on 23 November, so there is no track record and AUM is very low at the outset. Base seeding price is $10 a unit. Management fees set at 0.65%pa  WIRE provides access to a...




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				




also found on this WIRE thread (item #2) is a useful backgrounder:
_Why the World Can’t Cope without Copper       _​           By Global X ETFs Australia


----------



## greggles

Glencore sees huge copper deficit in 2023 and beyond. Mine development is lagging demand in a big way and a supply crunch is coming.









						Mining Giant Glencore Sees Huge Deficit In Copper Coming | OilPrice.com
					

A huge shortage of copper is looming, mining and commodities giant Glencore said in an investor update this week




					oilprice.com


----------



## Sean K

greggles said:


> Glencore sees huge copper deficit in 2023 and beyond. Mine development is lagging demand in a big way and a supply crunch is coming.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mining Giant Glencore Sees Huge Deficit In Copper Coming | OilPrice.com
> 
> 
> A huge shortage of copper is looming, mining and commodities giant Glencore said in an investor update this week
> 
> 
> 
> 
> oilprice.com




Unless there's another huge copper discovery or two in the next couple of years, or things like Oak Flat in Arizona gets approved and in operation very quickly (it won't), the price of copper is going to go nuts and marginal operations now will become very valuable. 

Unless there's another metal or a tech solution to copper use?


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Unless there's another huge copper discovery or two in the next couple of years, or things like Oak Flat in Arizona gets approved and in operation very quickly (it won't), the price of copper is going to go nuts and marginal operations now will become very valuable.
> 
> Unless there's another metal or a tech solution to copper use?



or unless a major depression/conflict reset the clocks and priorities but you are probably right, the west will go for this carbon zero scam as if it was the new bitcoin or black tulip until full societal collapse ?


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> or unless a major depression/conflict reset the clocks and priorities but you are probably right, the west will go for this carbon zero scam as if it was the new bitcoin or black tulip until full societal collapse ?



I actually expect miners to do kind of relatively ok next year while the economic recession hits the world..so does that means australia will do ok?


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> or unless a major depression/conflict reset the clocks and priorities but you are probably right, the west will go for this carbon zero scam as if it was the new bitcoin or black tulip until full societal collapse ?




Yes, this is the biggest risk perhaps. Recession/depression, Ukraine/Russia spills over, and China invade Taiwan at the same time, then God knows what happens with the World economy and demand then. Fingers crossed the World navigates a path through this.


----------



## Smurf1976

Sean K said:


> Unless there's another metal or a tech solution to copper use?



There are but generally with a downside.

Aluminium's an alternative for electrical cables for example. It's actually used in the case of transmission lines, copper would be far too costly, but whilst it's referenced in the relevant Standards I've never seen or heard of anyone wiring a house with aluminium wire. In theory yes, in practice not that I'm aware of.

Plumbing pipes can be replaced with plastic alternatives in many but not all situations and to considerable extent that's already done.

Copper's long gone as a material for most water tanks and has been so since the 1970's. Hot water tanks used to be copper but not anymore. I've seen corrugated copper water tanks made a long time ago - looked just like a corrugated galvanised iron tank that you'd see on a farm etc but they were definitely copper. Must be worth a fortune.

My observation is that the low hanging fruit for alternative materials, things like transmission lines, pipes, tanks etc has mostly already been picked. Those uses have already shifted away from copper largely and what remains is much more difficult.


----------



## orr

On copper as a conductor; the more amps the more copper you need, the more volts the less amps, therefore the less copper for the same amount of power .
Higher voltage archtecture for EV's means for the same power for less amps.
 And to this end; a good look at silicon carbide power eletornics are worth a look at. This, Si-carbide, I believe will only increase *across industry* more broadly.
A bit more esoteric but applicable is the physics of electric motors is rpm and what a carbon wrapped rotor has an advantage with regard efficiency  
Elevated cost of copper will drive these  type developments faster.

Gone are the days of low-voltage tungsten filiment down lights with their associated transformers in their dozens gobbling up rediculious amounts of elecrticity turning it into unwanted heat that would then add to air-conditions costs... _being a thing_.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning,
Have been numerous articles published on copper.  Quite abit said, overall, for mine the message is positive.  Note the contents of greggles post on 9 December 2022, re Glencore.  This article is encapsulated also into the below AFR publication.

rcw1 holding NCM.

CNBC - 13/12/22 - Copper prices — traditionally a barometer for the global economy — are expected to soar next year


			Copper prices — traditionally a barometer for the global economy — are expected to soar next year
		


_The downward pressure in 2022 stemmed in part from persistent market expectations for a surplus inflection in the metal market, driven by anticipation of sluggish demand amid slowing global growth and an acceleration of mining activity, Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note last week.  _However, this has not come to fruition ...


The AFR published this article not so long ago.  There are a number of take-aways from a pretty well written story for mine.
Not quite sure though on the extent of overall impact of green demand projects upon the copper market.

‘Extremely’ tight market to fuel record copper prices next year​


*Alex Gluyas *Markets reporter
Dec 7, 2022 – 12.08pm

Copper prices will rocket to record levels in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs, as a looming supply shortage coincides with growing demand, keeping the physical market for the metal in deficit in 2023.  That bullish view appears to be shared by Glencore boss Gary Nagle, who predicted “a huge deficit” coming in copper.  Copper prices snapped a streak of seven months of losses in November. Bloombergm  While some traders had been anticipating that a burst of new supply would temporarily weaken market fundamentals near-term, Goldman Sachs believes this soft patch is failing to materialise.  The broker now forecasts that the copper market faces a 178,000 tonne deficit next year, compared to its previous forecast for a 169,000 tonne surplus.

“The sequential increase in policy targets and commitments to green transition, alongside a minimal supply response so far... have resulted in earlier and larger open-ended deficit conditions that essentially are already here, not beginning at some point in the future,” said Nicholas Snowdon, metals strategist at Goldman Sachs.

The price of the industrial metal, used in everything from electric vehicles to power infrastructure, has dropped 22.5 per cent from a record high of $US10,845 a tonne in March amid persistent recession fears, a stronger US dollar and the slowdown caused by China’s strict COVID-19 measures.

But in November, the metal recorded its biggest monthly advance since April 2021, surging nearly 11 per cent on the London Metal Exchange as China began loosening virus restrictions.

The clearer path to a recovery in the world’s largest copper importer means the metal is near its trough, and next year presents a more supportive macroeconomic backdrop, Mr Snowdon said.

Goldman Sachs forecast that prices will exceed their record high in the next year, increasing its 12-month price target to $US11,000 a tonne from $US9000 a tonne.

The new target implies 31 per cent upside from copper’s current price of $US8405 a tonne.




The expectation of tighter market conditions reflects Goldman’s 434,000 tonne cut to its global mine supply forecasts for next year, which was largely due to lower guidance from operations in Chile.  The broker also increased its China green demand projection by 250,000 tonnes after analysts updated their expectations for installations of solar panels next year.  Goldman is anticipating that China will accelerate its restocking of copper as the nation ramps up toward a post-COVID-19 reopening, and introduces measures to stabilise its troubled property sector.

With global visible copper inventories set to end this year below 200,000 tonnes, “another deficit in the market next year will take fundamental conditions to an unprecedented extreme in terms of tightness,” Mr Snowdon said.

Goldman Sachs upgraded its average price forecast for 2023 to $US9750 per tonne, from $US8325 per tonne previously. The broker now expects prices to average $US12,000 a tonne in 2024, from $US10,750 a tonne previously.

‘Huge deficit’ looming​Glencore, one of the world’s largest copper producers, overnight echoed predictions that the copper market is facing an imminent supply shortage.  “There’s a huge deficit coming in copper, and as much as people write about it, the price is not yet reflecting it,” its chief executive Mr Nagle said.  Mr Nagle added that Glencore will wait to lift its copper production until the world is “screaming” for it, according to comments reported by Bloomberg. “We want to see that deficit,” Mr Nagle said.  Glencore could lift its annual copper output by more than 60 per cent from current levels of 1 million tonnes by expanding its current assets, Mr Nagle said.

Edit: just a tidy up of a sentence.
Kind regard
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

Economic bellwether Cu looks like it's making higher lows and highs now. Have we seen the bottom? A 50m ton shortfall in 2023 must be good for copper plays.


----------



## KevinBB

It broke through the 4c overnight, but has since come back a little. Still sitting at 4.0070 at 13:07 Chicago time.

KH


----------



## peter2

Good to see the copper price testing the $4 level. I'd rather see it stay at this level for a while and form a solid support zone rather than rallying higher immediately. The recent higher low price of $3.70 should hold now. Copper producers and copper ETFs are all going higher. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy will only delay the inevitable rally in the price of copper.


----------



## frugal.rock

Apparently Peru is the 2nd largest copper producer.
South America becoming a bit of a sovereign risk investment area overall.
Political tensions in Brazil also.

"Peru's mining south, rocked by violence, braces for 'endless battle'"









						Peru's mining south, rocked by violence, braces for 'endless battle' By Reuters
					

Peru's mining south, rocked by violence, braces for 'endless battle'




					au.investing.com


----------



## qldfrog

frugal.rock said:


> Apparently Peru is the 2nd largest copper producer.
> South America becoming a bit of a sovereign risk investment area overall.
> Political tensions in Brazil also.
> 
> "Peru's mining south, rocked by violence, braces for 'endless battle'"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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> Peru's mining south, rocked by violence, braces for 'endless battle' By Reuters
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> Peru's mining south, rocked by violence, braces for 'endless battle'
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> au.investing.com



As the US global power declines, the countries it fxcked most aka anywhere south of the Rio Grande will have no love lost, and the woke leftist contagion is present as well, with self hate of the US internally fuelling the deep already existing resentment of the US.
Venezuela is just the beginning.
A Canadian copper mine in Panama is having trouble as well currently, and Panama is not exactly a hot bed of union socialist power.


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## Dona Ferentes

_or poor grades_

Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, will launch an austerity plan intended to boost its earnings in the short- and medium-term and optimise production and investments through 2027, the company said on Friday.

The state-owned miner cut its 2022/23 production goal in October amid lower prices and poorer ore grades, and indicated its lower output levels would continue for a few years.

The company estimated a 2022 copper output of between 1.435 million and 1.465 million tonnes, below its previous forecast of between 1.49 million and 1.51 million tonnes.

In a statement Friday, Codelco said its Chief Executive Andre Sougarret had ordered the immediate implementation of an austerity plan, cutting spending on materials, third-party services and events, among other things.

According to the statement, Sougarret asked top executives to, by the end of January, present a complete plan regarding production and investment between 2023 and 2027.

Codelco is currently implementing a multi-million-dollar investment plan to develop so-called “_structural projects_,” which it hopes will offset lower mineral grades at its deposits.

The company said it will continue to invest in structural projects as well as the renovation and maintenance of existing infrastructure, mining projects and environmental and community commitments.

The miner highlighted that the spending cuts should be carried out “_without affecting labour safety standards_.” Codelco has faced pressure to improve safety policies after two people died at its mines last July.


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## Dona Ferentes

_or Chinese demand_
Copper has made a roaring start to 2023, defying most forecasts for an indifferent kick off and sluggish performance in the early new year.

The trigger is the China re-opening story, though why that is a big deal for copper is hard to see as the country’s appetite for the red metal hasn’t really slowed in the past year.

In the 11 months to November, China was again the biggest consumer and importer of the metal in various forms, with a record appetite for the red metal.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 2.41 million tonnes of copper ore and its concentrate in November, hitting a new record high and a year-on-year increase of 10.26%.

According to the Chinese customs data, China also imported 358,300 tonnes of copper cathode in November, up 44% on the month and 10% for the year. Cathode imports totalled 3.32 million tonnes from January to November, up 9.36% year on year.

That is not a sign of a market that’s ‘closed’ and needs re-opening to drive extra demand.

But the facts have never stopped traders, investors and others in any market from punting on thin air and so it is in copper – the Comex price for metal delivered this month jumped back above $US4 a pound for the first time in quite a while – in fact, since June 21 last year.


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## Sean K

peter2 said:


> Good to see the copper price testing the $4 level. I'd rather see it stay at this level for a while and form a solid support zone rather than rallying higher immediately. The recent higher low price of $3.70 should hold now. Copper producers and copper ETFs are all going higher. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy will only delay the inevitable rally in the price of copper.




Yes, it looks like $4 should be a significant resistance level but has just poked through. If it stays above for a bit that could become the support, but slow and steady wins the race here. Gold and copper have run a bit hard for my liking for mid term technical build.


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