# Anticipated recovery timeframe for holders



## roland (22 January 2008)

This is not the first crash or the last crash (call it a correction for the supreme optimists) that we have had, or will have.

There are lots of disaster posters here on ASF - all well founded in the current climate.

I am fielding for some chartists and technical long term traders that may offer some predictions on a time frame for recovery.

I have niether the skill, nor the experience to put up my view, other than to say - as we all know, it will turn around.


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## roland (22 January 2008)

Latest email from Investsmart:

Are you emotionally involved in the markets?
Ok, we all are! But we shouldn't be!

The graph below shows that most likely we all bought more shares at the top of the market, carried away by the euphoria of a raging bull market. 

Though now when markets have been slammed, we are looking at ourselves in the mirror wishing we never knew what a "share" was. However, this is the time when we have the least to lose i.e. we have already lost money and as long as we can carry the position, time suggests that the market will rebound. 

Obviously we are talking about blue chip stocks and not penny dreadful stocks. Take this opportunity to critically assess your portfolio of investments and get rid of anything that you bought on a BBQ tip or that is not considered blue chip. 



So the question remains - What to do?
Critically assess your portfolio of investments and get rid of anything you think is not blue chip and/or a long term viable investment. 
Think about buying more or getting into managed funds and or blue chip stocks. 
Take a look at our Market Leaders product. It's a simple and cost effective way to invest directly in the Top 20 ASX stocks by market capitalisation. 
We cannot control the markets, but we can control fees. Make sure you are not paying entry fees when getting into managed funds. InvestSMART rebates 100% of all entry fees. 
If you already have managed funds, make sure you are part of our TrailCapTM program where we rebate trailing commissions. 
Don't panic, time is on your side. 


Regards,
The InvestSMART Team


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## Lucky_Country (22 January 2008)

Excellent graph goes through all the emotions for sure.
What point are we at ?
Personally I think its a case of I wish I had never seen a share so hopefully a turaround coming soon


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Excellent graph goes through all the emotions for sure.
> What point are we at ?
> Personally I think its a case of I wish I had never seen a share so hopefully a turaround coming soon




I think it was obvious by today, we're sitting in panic :

Very interesting chart though, but I think it over simplifies, & generilizes crashes.


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## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

The goal is to reach the point where emotions are no longer involved - where a loss or a profit are viewed with equal dispassion. It's at that point that losses no longer hurt, they are just business expenses. And large open profits are not cut short - they are growing income. The plan is followed with an open, flexible, adaptive attitude, where fear and greed have no input.


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## roland (22 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> The goal is to reach the point where emotions are no longer involved - where a loss or a profit are viewed with equal dispassion. It's at that point that losses no longer hurt, they are just business expenses. And large open profits are not cut short - they are growing income. The plan is followed with an open, flexible, adaptive attitude, where fear and greed have no input.




Well said Tradesim, I am over the losses and fear and am now treating this downturn as a learning experience and have a plan to minimise the effects of future downturns - the next rebound will be the catalyst for the comencement of my plan. I hope I don't have to wait too long.


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## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

roland said:


> Well said Tradesim, I am over the losses and fear and am now treating this downturn as a learning experience and have a plan to minimise the effects of future downturns - the next rebound will be the catalyst for the comencement of my plan. I hope I don't have to wait too long.




Good on you Roland, me too. I believed I was under full control prior to this 12day drop. The acid test hit and I've been viewing the whole thing from a neutral perspective; just staying alert and waiting for opportunity. Very good test environment for what is for me, a new mental state. Owe it in most part to Van Tharp's excellent _Peak Performance_ course. No, I don't get any kickbacks - I'm simply a very happy customer.


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## Awesomandy (23 January 2008)

I would say we are somewhere between "desperation" and "panic". A few people have sold out to perserve their capital, but quite a few are hanging on for the ride. Of course, those with leverage will be the first to sell out. Judging by this graph, we would still have quite a bit of falls to come.


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## Lucky_Country (23 January 2008)

Last nights rate cute in the US gave us the upturn too hope on the graph.
FTSE futures showing 175 point rise so should be a hope day.


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## CFD (23 January 2008)

I'm guessing the same a s Awesomandy.
Nice post MS+Tradesim.


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