# Who's cashed up waiting for bottom to fall out in 2018?



## Darc Knight (7 May 2018)

Forgive me if I'm asking for your secrets but how many people here are lurking all cashed up waiting to swoop in when this market crashes like some are expecting it to?
I thought about it a year or so ago, so lucky I didn't "cash up* back then.


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## systematic (7 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Forgive me if I'm asking for your secrets but how many people here are lurking all cashed up waiting to swoop in when this market crashes like some are expecting it to?
> I thought about it a year or so ago, so lucky I didn't "cash up* back then.




A lot of people try to go in on the dips and lighten up later on.  I've got a mate that does...and as far as I know, it's paid off for him (but you never know for sure).

Personally, I'm 100% invested, 100% of the time...so it's not something I look to do.


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## Joules MM1 (7 May 2018)

systematic said:


> A lot of people try to go in on the dips and lighten up later on.  I've got a mate that does...and as far as I know, it's paid off for him (but you never know for sure).
> 
> Personally, I'm 100% invested, 100% of the time...so it's not something I look to do.




this http://www.rcsaustralia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/share_price_movements.pdf
says 'not so dumb' .....but i guess it also depends on how long youre alive


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## So_Cynical (8 May 2018)

Im 96% in and maybe 4% cash, was like 90/10 a few months back but i couldn't resist any more.


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## Value Collector (8 May 2018)

I am pretty much all in, the cash holding I have at the moment are for other purposes eg. living expenses and savings for a new car I have on order.

However, if there was a big decline, I would be seeking to take advantage of it by drawing on some debt, writing put options, and using dividends and put options premiums to by some more stock.


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## kid hustlr (8 May 2018)

Value Collector said:


> I am pretty much all in, the cash holding I have at the moment are for other purposes eg. living expenses and savings for a new car I have on order.
> 
> However, if there was a big decline, I would be seeking to take advantage of it by drawing on some debt, writing put options, and using dividends and put options premiums to by some more stock.




Hi,

if you are writing put options and they get exercised, you will still be required to stump up the cash to buy the stock will you not?


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## Cam019 (8 May 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Hi,
> 
> if you are writing put options and they get exercised, you will still be required to stump up the cash to buy the stock will you not?



Depends on whether they are naked or covered puts being written. If they are naked and OTM, and price of the underlying shares plummet below the exercise price, it could turn bad, fast, and you would need to provide the cash to buy the shares should the options get exercised. On the other hand, if they are covered puts, you would be short the underlying shares hoping that the price moves down to, but not exceed the exercise price, to collect the premium and the capital gain on your short position. Once the share price is lower than the strike price, they are ITM and the money made on the short position is counteracted by the money lost on the option. Therefore, you could use the short position to finance the terms of the option should the need arise.


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## Value Collector (8 May 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Hi,
> 
> if you are writing put options and they get exercised, you will still be required to stump up the cash to buy the stock will you not?




Yeah, But thats the point, when the market has crashed its a good idea to buy more stock.

Lets say you don't have any spare funds to invest at the moment, But you have an existing portfolio that pays dividends every 6 months, and you could draw on a margin loan if you really wanted to invest (but you want cheaper prices before you do that).

CBA is $73.00 today, but you think thats a little expensive and not worth drawing from your margin loan.

So you can just wait for the months to tick by and wait for some dividend checks to come in and hope CBA price falls

or, you can be a bit more active, and sell a put in anticipation of your future dividends coming in.

what I might do is this.

Sell a CBA put option with a strike price of $62 for June 2019 for $1.96 today, earning me a premium of $1,960 in my pocket today (which can be put off the home loan earning around 5%)

then in 12 months if the CBA share is above $62 I keep the premium

but if the share price is below $62, I take the stock, It costs me $62,000 for the stock but I have the $1960 options premium + the accumulated dividends over the 12 months and if needed I could draw on my margin loan.

At $62, CBA would have a grossed up dividend of 9.9% So it would be generating positive cashflow to pay back any margin loan I took out to pay for it.

It's not a strategy I would recommend for everybody, but long dated puts can be a good way to get paid for basically having a deep out of the money buy order in the market, when you know you will be wanting to buy shares with future dividends or margin loans in the future if prices were to drop.

and it the price doesn't fall, its a bit like being paid the dividend without having to buy the stock.


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## kid hustlr (8 May 2018)

All good VC.

If you have access to a margin loan and a clear plan in place I like it.


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## fiftyeight (8 May 2018)

Value Collector said:


> $1960 options premium + the accumulated dividends over the 12 months




You collect the CBA divs over that 12 months for the puts you sold?


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## Value Collector (8 May 2018)

fiftyeight said:


> You collect the CBA divs over that 12 months for the puts you sold?




No I am referring to the dividends from the existing portfolio,

I said this earlier


> Lets say you don't have any spare funds to invest at the moment, But you have an *existing portfolio that pays dividends every 6 months*, and you could draw on a margin loan if you really wanted to invest (but you want cheaper prices before you do that).
> 
> CBA is $73.00 today, but you think thats a little expensive and not worth drawing from your margin loan.
> 
> ...




I was trying to say, rather than just wait idle for your future dividends to come before you invest, you can sell a long dated puts in anticipation of the future dividends coming in.

Meaning that by the time the put would be exercised, you can buy the stock with the extra dividends your existing portfolio has generated in the mean time, along with the options premiums generated and if need be a draw down on a margin long etc.

So by the time your dividends do arrive, you have not just the dividends to invest but any options premiums you collected over that time.


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## fiftyeight (8 May 2018)

Value Collector said:


> No I am referring to the dividends from the existing portfolio




Ok kool, this is what I thought. Just wanted to make sure I was not missing something.


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## mcgrath111 (8 May 2018)

I'm pretty much all in at the moment. Although savings that accumulate until the end of the year will likely remaim savings. 
That being said I'm bearish short term. But bulls ahoy in the long run, so no selling for me.


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## boofhead (8 May 2018)

I'm holding a bit in cash. It is May and some may know the old saying about May when it comes to the market. Also Things have been going reasonably okay for almost a decade. Back in early 2008 I thought it was as the bottom as markets had dropped a bit. If only I had waited until 2009 I would have had much better prices. Didn't have any money to take advantage.


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## Knobby22 (8 May 2018)

I'm about 20% in cash.


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## noirua (11 May 2018)

Somehow all the negativity forgets markets often rise on a wall of worry as well as money.  Many small miners, micro-caps, have not performed as well as their peers.  There are of course a few we can see as shining lights but most may start to rise quickly when it is most unexpected.
Oil prices are not far short of $80 a barrel on the Iran factor. Many commodities are well off their peaks at the moment but, me thinks, the subject of profit taking and China concerns on where America is heading in a 'fits and starts Presidential policy arena'.


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## PZ99 (11 May 2018)

I have close to zero cash in my portfolio but around 70% cash in my super.

A bit of an each-way bet but the super is more vulnerable and harder to control.


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## Darc Knight (11 May 2018)

You guys are pretty smart right? You'll tell me to get out before this supposed crash hits, right?


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## galumay (11 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> You guys are pretty smart right? You'll tell me to get out before this supposed crash hits, right?




You are right they are very smart, if they keep predicting it eventually they will be right. Due to the speed of transmission limits, you may get the message a little after the supposed crash hits.


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## luutzu (11 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> You guys are pretty smart right? You'll tell me to get out before this supposed crash hits, right?




Some smart guy quoted in this series of interviews put the crash cycle at 15 years (last interview I think). So in 2023.

But as a sage advise from, I think, the former CEO of Lehman Brothers after the GFC... we gotta dance until the music stop.

===========
Very informative discussion on the fictionalisation of... everything... and how all these high finances destroy the underlining economy and its infrastructure rather than being the grease that smooth the transactions.


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## Darc Knight (12 May 2018)

luutzu said:


> Some smart guy quoted in this series of interviews put the crash cycle at 15 years (last interview I think). So in 2023.
> 
> But as a sage advise from, I think, the former CEO of Lehman Brothers after the GFC... we gotta dance until the music stop.
> 
> ...





2023 thanks. Can't give me a date can you?

I thought the cycles ran 10-12 years, not 15? Can you see Australia lasting that long? Some young folk today don't even know what a recession is!


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## galumay (12 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Can't give me a date can you?




I cant, because I am not very smart. What I can share with you is my belief that the timing of a crash is much less important than your emotional response to it.


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## luutzu (12 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> 2023 thanks. Can't give me a date can you?
> 
> I thought the cycles ran 10-12 years, not 15? Can you see Australia lasting that long? Some young folk today don't even know what a recession is!




Sun Tzu says, able generals of old conquer by making no mistake. Making no mistake lie with oneself. The opportunity for victory lie with the enemy. 

Hence the saying that one may know how to win but not being able to do it. 

In other words, heads down, hang onto your cash... and only invest when the opportunity present itself. Do this during any part of the cycle, don't panic, and chances are you'll do alright. 

As to being able to predict when the crash is likely to happen so that we can take further advantage during a fire sale... Personally I'd be stricter about what and where to put the cash right about now. i.e. Probably best not to buy things at what you reckon a "fair price" is; be patient and more demanding. 

But that's just me and me following that rule have seen a couple of opportunities go. Namely CSL at the $90s a share not too long ago, and recently APO at the $4.20s. 
 i.e. don't take my thinking outloud as advice and such. They're worth about what I'm charging them for.

As to cashing out, I'm a bit luckier this time round, maybe, knock on wood.. in that two of my holdings are being taken over. Both have a good chance of a bidding war and the rising oil may mean a better price could be on the table soon enough. 

If these two goes through and the cash is handed over, that's almost half my portfolio in cash. 

Two other holdings might also be takeover targets. But that could be just me thinking too highly of them, who knows. 

But if history is any guide, the last time I see this happening to my holdings, and seeing deals being done almost on a daily basis... I took the cash, can't find anything so parked it in blue chips like RIO and BHP... and ABC Learning centres. Will try to be smarter this time round.


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## Smurf1976 (12 May 2018)

For purely personal reasons I've sold quite a lot of my share holdings in recent times. 

Reason is simply moving house. Easier to buy the new one first and then sell the old one, thus removing any panic to physically move, and it seemed rational to cull lesser performing investments rather than borrow money and pay interest + bank fees + government duties on a mortgage. 

So my interest in the market is reduced for a purely practical and personal reason. Beware though, I've got a bad history with this sort of thing.

Only time I've ever bought a brand new car, I placed the order on 10 March 2000. That was the day of the NASDAQ peak followed by an outright crash. 

Bought my current house with the contract signed in October 2007 just days before what is still the all time high for the ASX.

So beware if Smurf makes a major purchase. FWIW I'm looking at houses starting next weekend.


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## galumay (12 May 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> So beware if Smurf makes a major purchase.




Duly noted. Makes more sense than economists or squiggly lines.
I am all cash on Friday.


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## Wysiwyg (12 May 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> So beware if Smurf makes a major purchase. FWIW I'm looking at houses starting next weekend.



Please let us know when you sign the contract of sale.  However I think pre-empting will make something not happen. The pattern breaks down because of the knowing.


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## Mr Bear (13 May 2018)

Wilson Asset Management who I highly respect ( I have little respect for most money managers) are currently holding at least 30% cash in some of their portfolios. 

Personally I don’t like moving to cash but I do like to remove exposure. I know my portfolio will outperform the asx200 so instead of moving to cash I sell futures to remove exposure while I receive the active return only. At the top of most cycles with high interests rates you are getting paid to hold this short, at the moment you are effectively paying for this position.

The way I hedge or leverage my portfolio is to identify fair value for the market (doesn’t need to be precise) anywhere below that I want to start leveraging. 

For the hedge it’s incremental as well, I start to reduce exposure around 15-20% above fair value.. as my portfolio outperforms the hedge over time the hedge becomes smaller. At Friday’s close my short has reduced my exposure by 11%.


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## jesser (13 May 2018)

Psssh. I've been following the markets and investing since the late 90s. Every year there are people, groups and governments predicting this year will see the big crash. Some years it gets a little noisier.

For example, in 2016, Robert Kiyosaki (of "Rich Dad" fame) was adamant of the big crash. He had all these great reasons. It never happened, of course. In 2017, he still said it was going to happen. It didn't.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...lapse-he-foresaw-in-2002-is-coming-2016-03-23
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...up-on-his-dismal-market-prediction-2017-02-28

Very few people foresaw the GFC, and of those that did, very few made money on it. Some people just got the timing wrong.

So every year, new sites pop up predicting this is _the _year. It's all "run to gold!"... "sell all your property!"... etc. Even during the GFC they were certain it's only going to get a lot worse. It didn't.

But one year, they're going to be right. Just which one?


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## Movendi (18 May 2018)

I think it'll be sooner rather than later. 9 years appears to be the average since 1926 for U.S S&P 500.  Longest bull market 15.1 years from 1940's to 1960. https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common...tentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Currently at 9.1 years. So we have less than 6 years for a probable crash to occur. I think it's unlikely that we would exceed 15 years.


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## Craton (23 May 2018)

Sell in May?
For me, I'm rarely fully invested as I like to have a minimum of 5~10% in dry powder to strike if/when opportunity beckons.

After a prolonged period of rising markets, one knows that the opposite will eventually come. Trying to time just when is the holy grail is it not?
Either a crash or a downturn, we go up in steps and down in elevators, what goes up must come down. Whatever the idiom, its the trading strategy employed that will be the decisive factor.
Those with a longer term view may hold through the ups and downs. Those with a shorter term view may already be skimming the cream off the top. Still comes down to one's trading/investment strategy and one's view of the accumulation/distribution cycle. My personal take is that there are opportunities in both bull and bear markets and not just in the financial arena.


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## Darc Knight (23 May 2018)

Are successful market timers like successful gamblers - a myth?


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## Gringotts Bank (23 May 2018)

Needs a 'catalyst', otherwise the Wall St analysts won't know what 'caused' it.  Synchronicity ensures there will always be 'reasons' and omens around the same time.  Market analysts like to have reasons which appeal to their logical minds.  "The market fell because ...", then they look to fill the gap with whatever reasons might best fit the situation.  The last thing you will hear them say is "The market fell because everyone decided to sell".  That would be too simple, and then they risk their job.

You know when a flock of birds decides to move in a different direction and they all move?  It just happens.

An obvious lower high often preceeds a big fall, but not always.


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## Gringotts Bank (23 May 2018)

Omens are useful. These are not reasons but suggestive symbolic events created by the collective unconscious.  I was just on FB when I came across this by chance.  So possibly we're near.  Thought contagion happens qucikly in the modern age, due to social media.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/us/politics/white-house-sinkhole.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_contagion


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## Smurf1976 (23 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Are successful market timers like successful gamblers - a myth?



Successful gamblers certainly do exist.


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## Gringotts Bank (23 May 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Successful gamblers certainly do exist.



David Walsh & team.  Joe Hacham.  Two Aussies.


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## Craton (23 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Are successful market timers like successful gamblers - a myth?




Success can be measured in different ways.
Pumping a red back into a one armed bandit and pulling out the same amount or more can be called successful.
Investing x$ at regular intervals means that a low point would have been picked at some time and thus, success.

Out and out picking an entry based on some arbitrary "bottom" doesn't really mean success either. A stock or market can still tumble when others are making headway.

On a macro level, I am in agreeance that the crowd mentality and/or some type of trigger being factors in how both individual stocks and markets perform/react. More so too, what the pro money is thinking and doing about it.
When will the market run out of puff is anyone's guess ATM but rest assured, it will happen. Whilst the status quo remains fairly much as is (this I seriously doubt due to the nature of the beast), I'll take a stab and say that rising interest rates will be the key trigger.
With any luck this time it will be an ordering decline not a plunge to the death as we've seen so often before. Ah, the dreams of mice and men...


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## So_Cynical (23 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Are successful market timers like successful gamblers - a myth?





Smurf1976 said:


> Successful gamblers certainly do exist.




And he has a museum in Tassie to prove it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Walsh_(art_collector)


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## Smurf1976 (23 May 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> And he has a museum in Tassie to prove it.




Indeed. Walshy is very much a household name in Tas - you'd be very hard pressed to find anyone in the state who doesn't know who he is.

He's generally held in high regard too by the way, even higher by those who "get" the reasons behind some of his doings over the years.


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## Darc Knight (24 May 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> And he has a museum in Tassie to prove it.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Walsh_(art_collector)



It says he made his money by developing a gambling system? The money didn't come from sales of the system did it? There are also subscriptions to market timers who will keep you "in the know", for a fee of course.
Not sure if I should be on here or at the Race track now


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## luutzu (24 May 2018)

Reuters report that global M&A in the year to yesterday topped $2Trillion. 

The last couple of times it got close to this mark was in 2000 and 2007.


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## Smurf1976 (24 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> It says he made his money by developing a gambling system? The money didn't come from sales of the system did it?



Developed a system and used it is what he did to my understanding.


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## So_Cynical (24 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Not sure if I should be on here or at the Race track now




Sometimes Knowledge comes from funny places, i like to think that my 10 years of gambling (horses mostly) set me up beautifully for my later incarnation as a contrarian investor, i learned that i dont like losing and that investing money into the outcome of an event that plays out over a short fixed period of time is a mugs game.

I did some googling about David Walsh a while back as i was fascinated,  he worked the system with a team for many years, from memory the system identifies anomalies in pay out versus mathematical risk, the team used that small edge to their advantage.


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## basilio (2 June 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Developed a system and used it is what he did to my understanding.



I understood he worked out a method of arriving at "true odds" for horses in a race.  If he found that bookies were offering better odds than what he saw as "true odds" he backed the horses on the basis of value.

I remember many years ago one newspaper was running a section which also offered such advice. Essentially it was a computer program which highlighted the alleged "true odds" for horses. It didn't last that long. According to friends who were playing the ponies it was working too well for the health of the bookies.


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## basilio (2 June 2018)

This story offeres an insight into how on line sports betting can be gamed..
https://cosmosmagazine.com/mathematics/researchers-work-out-how-to-break-the-bookmakers


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## galumay (3 June 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Successful gamblers certainly do exist.




I wonder if they actually do, the people that have taken money from the games consitently are probably not gamblers in the normal sense of the word. I would suggest they are investors who worked out from maths, places where they could take advantage of small asymmetries in favour of the 'bettor' - ordinary gamblers dont operate that way at all.


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## JuniorR (3 June 2018)

systematic said:


> A lot of people try to go in on the dips and lighten up later on. I've got a mate that does...and as far as I know, it's paid off for him (but you never know for sure).
> 
> Personally, I'm 100% invested, 100% of the time...so it's not something I look to do.




I seen this post and would like to ask you all on ASF a question as I am yet to buy into the stock markets. I've just been doing a lot of research and youtube videos.

Has it paid off for you being in 100% of the time?
I noticed your friend looks for the dips and its paid off for him.
Trying to follow the 4 seasons of the economic system, Is said to be difficult as I have read. How difficult though?
I seen a picture on google when i typed "Seasons of an economical cycle" and it also shows what to look for on periods of time.





There is long periods of time before you can get to a big high when you sell off or was it the right time to sell off who knows, so knowing where you are in the season or how high its going to be hard but if you were to follow the diagram in the picture and follow when interest rates move from low to high and ect you would only be out by a few days if you follow the news when to buy in.

I'm starting to work on my plan and I'm a little stuck because some websites say not to wait for dips but others say they wait for dips so obvious people have different opinions and now I need to weigh up my options and decide to have my own opinion but I would like to hear what method some of you guys chose and why?

Saving for dips requires gathering more info and more time is required, but you get a bang for your buck. How much time do you spend per night following the news if you still have a full time job, what resources do you use to save time looking for news? Do you have any apps or websites you check daily to keep up to date with the market?

Being invested 100% of the time seems a slower process but of course you still get out in front.


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## Mr ABC (4 June 2018)

jesser said:


> Psssh. I've been following the markets and investing since the late 90s. Every year there are people, groups and governments predicting this year will see the big crash. Some years it gets a little noisier.
> 
> For example, in 2016, Robert Kiyosaki (of "Rich Dad" fame) was adamant of the big crash. He had all these great reasons. It never happened, of course. In 2017, he still said it was going to happen. It didn't.
> 
> ...




And that’s the best reason why we shouldn’t time the market. The other being rebound in the banks if the royal commission isn’t as heavy handed as thought. The market could rise.


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## Mr ABC (4 June 2018)

JuniorR said:


> I seen this post and would like to ask you all on ASF a question as I am yet to buy into the stock markets. I've just been doing a lot of research and youtube videos.
> 
> Has it paid off for you being in 100% of the time?
> I noticed your friend looks for the dips and its paid off for him.
> ...




Best advice I could suggest is split you money in half. Put half in an ASX200 EFT and attempt to time the markets with the other half. See which one is the bigger half of the portfolio after 5 years. 

Financial news is mostly bull**** written by journalists who don’t have much skin in the game. Still good to read tho.


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## systematic (4 June 2018)

Hi JuniorR.  Good on you for thinking about this.

I can only share my opinion...which I will.  But first I need to mention something.  I probably shouldn't have said, 'buy the dips' as that may have been the wrong terminology.

The original poster simply asked how many members are all cashed up and waiting to buy in at the next crash?  This question is directed at those who are already out of the market (for whatever reason...oer perhaps haven't commenced investing in equities yet) and rather than invest today (or invest in lumps over the next period of time), they are choosing to wait for a market 'crash'.  Which, however you measure it, means a big old gigantic dip down - and they have been fairly rare (depending on your definition).

I did mention a mate of mine that did that.  From memory it went something like...he'd lost some money in the market in the (I'm guessing here) early 2000's (maybe late 90's to very early noughties).  He was investing, but not enthusiastically during the bull of 2003 to 2007, and was pretty sore about his earlier losses (and not winning as much as he should have during the bull).  He ended up sitting on a lot of cash...deliberately waiting for...a 'crash'.  Look at a chart if you weren't around then...lo and behold...a mother of a crash was about to come.  The rest of the story, as best I know it...he was pretty patient about getting back in, did well over the next few years, and retired.

I then mentioned (to the original poster) that that's not my plan.  With equities, I am invested all of the time...not waiting for a crash.  I wouldn't recommend anyone to go waiting for a crash.  My friend was lucky.  A sour taste in his mouth abut the markets, good savings and the wisdom of years along with the good fortune of a massive crash...and then pulling the trigger...yep, seemed to work out.

Is that a plan to recommend?  How could anyone?  If you do stuff like buy on 10% draw downs and then hold for 12 months (remembering you have to have a time to go to cash), you don't come out ahead.  If you wait for 'the-world-has-come-to-an-end' crashes, well...you might go an investing lifetime without seeing one.  Your cash is still in the bank!

If someone is determined to look into 'market timing' I'd suggest that they look at the various trend following methods (which will have you essentially going in as the market is rising and out as it is falling).  But even then, I'd suggest you look into why you would want to do that, and whether it aligns with your goals.  I've mentioned in a post long ago that I would maybe adopt a trend following overlay...if I wanted to reduce some volatility later on in life.  Maybe.  Of course, there's other ways as well.  Hold enough cash overall that you can still tolerate the volatility.  But for now my time horizon is such that - at least for the way I invest - it doesn't make sense.  JuniorR your profile says you are 25yo, I don't even know why you'd do any kind of trend following, volatility reduction or even hold a cent in cash (in your retirement investing at least)...but then, you need to figure out your own plan.  But still, I'd encourage someone interested to go looking at that stuff rather than buying on dips or crashes.


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## JuniorR (7 June 2018)

I'm going to put some money over next week then by the weekend, I'm going have a go at trading the S&P ASX 200. I think CMC are bringing over some popular US stocks, so I might look at that and set up a portfolio over the next few weeks.


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## tinhat (7 June 2018)

I am more in cash at the moment than I have been for a few years, however, this is partly to do with timing around my needs, partly because I've had the opportunity to take profits (including the hostile take-over of Finders Resources) and partly because I've been over-invested in stocks for too long now and am looking to rebalance.

If you look at the indices, it is banks and mortgage related financials and telecoms that are dragging things down. Small caps, materials, growth oriented industrial, even consumer discretionary appear to be going well.

The main thing to watch is interest rates and bond prices. Yields are low now, and PEs are overall lifted. The dividend game has been milked dry. Time to concentrate on growth, even for a SMSF.

I think it's worth keeping some cash in hand. There may be opportunities arise from future volatility.


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## Craton (18 June 2018)

JuniorR said:


> I'm going to put some money over next week then by the weekend, I'm going have a go at trading the S&P ASX 200. I think CMC are bringing over some popular US stocks, so I might look at that and set up a portfolio over the next few weeks.




Curious to know how'd you go JuniorR?
Also curious as to what which stocks or sectors you laid money on. I'll understand if you don't reply, all good.


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## gaius (22 June 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Forgive me if I'm asking for your secrets but how many people here are lurking all cashed up waiting to swoop in when this market crashes like some are expecting it to?
> I thought about it a year or so ago, so lucky I didn't "cash up* back then.




Market crash? That's crazy talk. I'm way over 500% invested. Current market and political structure won't allow that to happen. Market crash is something in the past, the world has changed, the biggest risk nowadays is not invested and missed the boat.


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## Darc Knight (2 July 2018)

Ross Greenwood saying most think we are a few years off a global downturn. 
BRB, buying back in.


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## gaius (5 July 2018)

How could there be a crash when everyone is waiting to buy back in? What will happen is everyone try to front run others in buying back in.


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## luutzu (5 July 2018)

gaius said:


> How could there be a crash when everyone is waiting to buy back in? What will happen is everyone try to front run others in buying back in.




I'm obviously have no special insight, but it looks like the way the market is set up - with index funds, algo trading, stop losses, short selling etc. etc.... It doesn't take much for a market to crash like it never crashed before.

Just need some trigger big enough and all those factors will kick in, cascading down into a spiral. And if it goes on long enough, a lot of people will get stuffed.

The world will go on, market will eventually recover etc. IF gov't steps in with stimulus big enough. 

But yea, don't kid yourself, it will happen. 

You can see it in certain stocks that surprises the market. A few that I know of practically drop 30%, 40% in a single day. 50% after a while then either stay there or picks up. Quickly or slowly depends.

You can see it recently in Santos, Sirtex, Sigma etc.

The market is getting very efficient at front running. Once a bad news is heard... bam!


But that's not saying anyone should stay out or stay in because of what the market might do. If you ask me, just look for good businesses and pray to Fortune you didn't pay a few days before it halved.


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## MarketMatters (7 October 2018)

gaius said:


> Market crash? That's crazy talk. I'm way over 500% invested. Current market and political structure won't allow that to happen. Market crash is something in the past, the world has changed, the biggest risk nowadays is not invested and missed the boat.




You are foolish to think that markets will never crash again. It is the normal behaviour of how markets operate. Corrections (smaller) and crashes are healthy pressure valves that allows the market to advance. The causes will almost certainly be different every time. Presently we're more likely to see correction(s) (around 10%) before we see a crash (greater than 20%) like GFC. Add to this that fewer than one in five corrections result in a crash/bear market.

As for current market and political structures not allowing this to happen I would suggest you revisit this thought when the next one arrives.


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## Triple B (7 October 2018)

market crash = go short for me


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## Value Hunter (7 October 2018)

I just do not see any signs of a crash in the near horizon. the U.S. economy is growing at break neck speeds, the rest of the world is limping along (aside form emerging markets which are having a mini crises) and global (and even U.S.) interest rates still have a long way to move up before they will be high enough to induce a downturn.

If you look at the GFC rates in the U.S. were already somewhat high and U.S. land prices (and mortgage credit growth rates) had already been declining for over 12 months preceding the crash. 

If we see much higher interest rates coupled with an inverted yield curve and U.S. land prices (a leading indicator) that have been declining for a period of time along with softening corporate profits then I would be worried about a crash. I just do not see the conditions for a crash in the near term (6-9 months).


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## sptrawler (7 October 2018)

My thoughts are, the asx isn't back to what it was pretty GFC, which actually had FA to do with us.
Yet we copped a massive correction, while our mining sector was screaming ahead, now we have a larger economy everyone is$hitting themselves. Go figure


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## luutzu (7 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> My thoughts are, the asx isn't back to what it was pretty GFC, which actually had FA to do with us.
> Yet we copped a massive correction, while our mining sector was screaming ahead, now we have a larger economy everyone is$hitting themselves. Go figure




This time our debt ratios are different. Our banks weren't much affected by the GFC and all that toxic CDOs... now they have a trillion or so of OZ mortgages on the books.


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## sptrawler (7 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> This time our debt ratios are different. Our banks weren't much affected by the GFC and all that toxic CDOs... now they have a trillion or so of OZ mortgages on the books.



Firstly I apologize for the grammar on the last post, predictive text is a pain in the butt.
Our banking system is one of the most stable, in the World, and unlike the U.S the borrower carries the loan, not the property.
Also we have a growing population, some will be hurt, but the banking system will go on, despite the sentiment. IMO


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## luutzu (7 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Firstly I apologize for the grammar on the last post, predictive text is a pain in the butt.
> Our banking system is one of the most stable, in the World, and unlike the U.S the borrower carries the loan, not the property.
> Also we have a growing population, some will be hurt, but the banking system will go on, despite the sentiment. IMO




Our banks did sensible in the lead up to the GFC, they've since gone full American with toxic mortgages.

I'm no economist and haven't looked up the consequences in an economy like ours... but have seen a couple docs on Ireland and the UK when the property market goes pop and investors/home owners see their equity goes negative...

Without being able to declare bankrupt like the US might actually make the situation worst. 

I mean, when a person can't afford to repay their mortgage are it's still hang around their neck... it's not going to be good for anybody. Not the debtor, the bankers or the retailers. 

Sometime it's better fr the economy that bad debt be written down or wipe clean.


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## MarketMatters (7 October 2018)

Just look at the capital flows from Emerging Markets (and Australia) and you will see it is flowing to the US as managers chase the returns. Without scratching the surface you will find high PE stocks compared to more fair valued companies in EM and Asia. I'm just saying this trend will not continue for ever. A crash? Don't think so, but a correction would be next. We will have to wait and see how robust this US market is!


Value Hunter said:


> I just do not see any signs of a crash in the near horizon. the U.S. economy is growing at break neck speeds, the rest of the world is limping along (aside form emerging markets which are having a mini crises) and global (and even U.S.) interest rates still have a long way to move up before they will be high enough to induce a downturn.
> 
> If you look at the GFC rates in the U.S. were already somewhat high and U.S. land prices (and mortgage credit growth rates) had already been declining for over 12 months preceding the crash.
> 
> If we see much higher interest rates coupled with an inverted yield curve and U.S. land prices (a leading indicator) that have been declining for a period of time along with softening corporate profits then I would be worried about a crash. I just do not see the conditions for a crash in the near term (6-9 months).




Just look at the capital flows from Emerging Markets (and Australia) and you will see it is flowing to the US as managers chase the returns. Without scratching the surface you will find high PE stocks compared to more fair valued companies in EM and Asia. I'm just saying this trend will not continue forever. A crash? Don't think so, but a correction would likely be the next major event. When? Who knows. We will have to wait and see how robust this US market is! 

Very cliche but one of Buffetts quotes sums it up - "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."


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## luutzu (7 October 2018)

MarketMatters said:


> Just look at the capital flows from Emerging Markets (and Australia) and you will see it is flowing to the US as managers chase the returns. Without scratching the surface you will find high PE stocks compared to more fair valued companies in EM and Asia. I'm just saying this trend will not continue for ever. A crash? Don't think so, but a correction would be next. We will have to wait and see how robust this US market is!
> 
> 
> Just look at the capital flows from Emerging Markets (and Australia) and you will see it is flowing to the US as managers chase the returns. Without scratching the surface you will find high PE stocks compared to more fair valued companies in EM and Asia. I'm just saying this trend will not continue forever. A crash? Don't think so, but a correction would likely be the next major event. When? Who knows. We will have to wait and see how robust this US market is!
> ...




Capital will be flowing towards China in a really big way soon enough. 

Saw a lecture by a Chinese-British professor at the Imperial Business School [?] outlining China's next competitive advantage. 

Basically the first advantage was cheap slave labour. The wave that's coming is higher margin service, patent, intellectual... i.e. more innovative, kind of advantage that is beginning to show itself.

He was saying that there had only been two instances in history where the interaction of technology, domestic market and capital as is occurring in China. First was the British Empire [after Waterloo], then the US after WWII. Now China after 30 years of embracing capitalism, doing cheap knock-offs etc.

If capital chases growth, and they tend to... growth is highest from a low base with fast developing infrastructure, technological know-how and leadership who actually like building stuff instead of lawyering or financial engineering things.


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## sptrawler (8 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> I mean, when a person can't afford to repay their mortgage are it's still hang around their neck... it's not going to be good for anybody. Not the debtor, the bankers or the retailers.
> 
> Sometime it's better fr the economy that bad debt be written down or wipe clean.




It wasn't long ago , you were complaining that people couldn't get into the housing market, now you want those who did, to have their debts written off, how many cycles will it take for everyone to have nothing?


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## luutzu (8 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> It wasn't long ago , you were complaining that people couldn't get into the housing market, now you want those who did, to have their debts written off, how many cycles will it take for everyone to have nothing?




I never complain. Only pointing out facts 

I don't think I said those in debt should have it written of. Merely saying that from an economic stand point, it might be better for the country/economy if debt are drastically reduced or written off in certain, rare, situation. 

A property collapse would be one of those. 

But of course it would never be written down or written off. That would be "moral hazard". Only bankers and failed business empire gets a bail out or two or three.

A few economists I've listened to said that the US would have been out of the post-GFC recession if Obama had reduce the inflated mortgages tens of millions of Americans got themselves into. 

When people and their low wages can't make mortgage repayment, they simply cannot make it. So teaching them a lesson by forcing them to either go broke or repay with every last dime until the bankers and investors are made whole again. Yea that's all nice and good until you see that ten million families lost everything while those who managed to scrape by doesn't spend a damn cent if they really have to. 

That's why the US economy didn't improve much beside investors playing among themselves and buying back their own stocks to push the price higher. 

In my opinion, if the OZ property market collapse and our law not permitting personal bankruptcy. Negative equity in a low-wage, no growth, job losses environment will see a couple generations of indebted landless peasants living in rundown properties or tent cities all over the place.

Drove around North/Western Sydney yesterday. I counted maybe 50 cranes still going. Plenty of brand new apartment complexes. 

Good luck with that population boom because I can't see how forking out $550K for a 1 room apartment will encourage sex and procreation.

But yea, I know a couple people who's jumping back into the property market thinking the ~9% correction lately is a bargain to be had. 

Maybe they're right. I can't predict. But if I have money to bet, I wouldn't bet on it.


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## sptrawler (8 October 2018)

It's too hard to keep up with your stances Iuutzu, no matter what happens, there is losers and you want to make a case for them.
Let them make their own minds up, let them make decissions and own it.
Why do you always have to see a persons choices, as something that has to be  overturned, if it was a bad one?
I love your compassion, but you can't save everyone, from themselves.
All you will do, is end up in a misery pit, of disappointment.IMO
Join the Salvation Army, or Saint Vincent DePaul, somewhere that you can focus your compassion.

Your statements about the U.S housing, from what I've read, is wrong.
The Banks got in the $hit, because the loan is against the house, not the person.

So they didn't have to pay their last dime, they just turned in the keys to the house and walked away.
So it wasn't all the misery you talk about, it was a banking crisis, because everyone just turned their keys in. lol
You need to take a deep breath Don Quixote.


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## luutzu (8 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> It's too hard to keep up with your stances Iuutzu, no matter what happens, there is losers and you want to make a case for them.
> Let them make their own minds up, let them make decissions and own it.
> Why do you always have to see a persons choices, as something that overturned, if it was a bad one?
> I love your compassion, but you can't save everyone, from themselves.
> ...





It's either naivety or  enlightened capitalism. i.e. don't kill the host; don't crap where you eat; don't cause potential for civil uprising and lawlessness where the masses would rise up and join some idiots with axes to rind, stuff to burn and mansions to confiscate (for the good of the country, of course).

There's the Ray Kroc (of McDonalds') dog eat dog, rat eat rat kind of capitalism... then there's the value creating kind of business that benefit everyone, including the taxman and the parasitic labourers. 

It's a lot easier to screw people to make money. That kind of stuff don't last. Not when you're an upstart anyway.

I don't do volunteer work. My wife does and she's great at it. I used to volunteer and raise money during HS for those World Vision Hunger stuff. But even then I only walk around the neighbourhood asking for donation, hand the money in but I never went hungry... I know what it's like to be hungry, no need to reenact that part of the programme. That's just sadism.


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## Bill M (8 October 2018)

MarketMatters said:


> As for current market and political structures not allowing this to happen I would suggest you revisit this thought when the next one arrives.



Looking at that chart, since Aug 1968 to right now Oct 2018. if you draw that line right through to the end we are still where we were at 1968. That is 50 years of keeping up with CPI Inflation only. It's not that good really.


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## Junior (8 October 2018)

Bill M said:


> Looking at that chart, since Aug 1968 to right now Oct 2018. if you draw that line right through to the end we are still where we were at 1968. That is 50 years of keeping up with CPI Inflation only. It's not that good really.




Plus dividends?  So CPI + 4.5% or thereabouts.


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## HelloU (8 October 2018)

[just quietly .... who knows what the cpi adjust was (depends if you are a pensioner or not I guess) but then plotted on a scale using orders of magnitude (that are not revealed).  It is essentially a chart produced for your grandmother to look at ......not a linear relationship for true data]


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## kid hustlr (8 October 2018)

Firstly,

If that Index doesn't include dividends then it is useless. Add in dividends and it's just not that bad.

Secondly,

I agree the outlook may not look rosy however I don't think the ASX is expensive. Yes there are sections (IT / healthcare / consumer?) where there may be concerns however overall I have our Market premium as around 3.7 and earnings yield approx 6.5. Not exactly crazy when compared to the last 18 years of data.

There would need to be a HUGE earnings contraction for stocks to fall 25% from here given the current 10 year yield IMO.


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## MarketMatters (8 October 2018)

Junior said:


> Plus dividends?  So CPI + 4.5% or thereabouts.



Yes unfortunately it did not include dividends as it tracked the index only. 

When reviewing inflation there have been considerable spikes which need to be accounted for in your calculations.


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## HelloU (8 October 2018)

MarketMatters said:


> Yes unfortunately it did not include dividends as it tracked the index only.
> 
> When reviewing inflation there have been considerable spikes which need to be accounted for in your calculations.
> View attachment 89650



soz mate if that other was yours ....not trying to bring it down (did not show stuff like the base of the log so the rationale behind the 'skewing' calculations goes unexplained - that was the orders of magnitude bit). Anyway, it does get a viewpoint across ...


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## systematic (8 October 2018)

Guys,

Aussie shares in financial years 1970 to 2018 = 10.1%
Inflation same period = 5.3%

That's almost twice inflation, yeah?


And (I'm sure I've posted similar before)...buying at the top in 2007 to today, you've made ~3.76% over inflation ~2.4%
A real rate of ~1% after costs (assuming no taxes) kinda sucks, I get that - but it's not going backwards!


But remember (I am telling myself!)...markets _can, have and do_ go backwards.  But the Australian market has been one of the best performers


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## MarketMatters (9 October 2018)

For the sake of any retirees and low income earners here, let's hope BS doesn't get his franking credit legislation passed reducing the meager out-performance above inflation any further!


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## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

MarketMatters said:


> For the sake of any retirees and low income earners here, let's hope BS doesn't get his franking credit legislation passed reducing the meager out-performance above inflation any further!




Yes it is a joke, silly Billy, looking after the little man, as if. He is more like the Sheriff of Nottingham, than Robin Hood.
Why doesn't he say, he will bring in a tax on volume, for multinational miners?
No he will hit those negative gearing, of which 80% are earning less than $140k.
He will hit capital gains, when most of the above, are going to see a capital loss.
He will take franking credits, off workers who buy shares, in their low income wife's name.
He will take franking credits of self funded retirees, unless they put their money in a union run Industry fund.
Yep good old Labor, out there looking out for the Aussie battler, just like all the other snake oil salesmen. IMO


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## SirRumpole (9 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Why doesn't he say, he will bring in a tax on volume, for multinational miners?




Jolly good idea. 

Maybe he's waiting till after the election this time.


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## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

systematic said:


> Guys,
> 
> Aussie shares in financial years 1970 to 2018 = 10.1%
> Inflation same period = 5.3%
> ...




That is only if you didn't buy any disasters, most of us have a few in the bottom draw, so in reality most wouldn't be back to where they were in 2007.
In 2007 the all ords reached 6,700 from memory, and it still hasn't got back there, despite record migration and a housing boom.

That is why so many are getting disillusioned with saving to get ahead, and are living for the day, and also the reason why access to super will change.

Watch this space when BS gets in.


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## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> Jolly good idea.
> 
> Maybe he's waiting till after the election this time.



No I doubt it, but if he does, I will praise him.
At the moment all he is hitting is the little man, the low hanging fruit, that don't realise they are hanging low.


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## systematic (10 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> That is only if you didn't buy any disasters, most of us have a few in the bottom draw, so in reality most wouldn't be back to where they were in 2007.




...But I thought we were talking about 'the market' - not the experience of an individual investor? You're throwing a curve ball.  I was simply stating a fact: 'this was the level of the market back then, this is the level now, here is the return % and here is the inflation %'  



sptrawler said:


> In 2007 the all ords reached 6,700 from memory, and it still hasn't got back there, despite record migration and a housing boom.




...I was simply showing that whoever said that dividends would've made a difference is correct.

I thought I was clear in my post - even if you bought ('the market') at the very peak in 2007...you HAVE surpassed the level of 2007.  And that's someone unlucky enough to buy at the peak - any later and you'd have done better.  Just look at a chart if that makes it easier. You're correct about the price index, but that's not the experience of the investor.


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## MrChow (10 October 2018)

I allocate based on my needs so I don't have win / lose outcomes.


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 October 2018)

Me. 

I'm even selling my big winners and losers atm to have more cash.

CBA under $40 is not unreasonable by November.

Now Cash 60% Shares 40%

gg


Darc Knight said:


> Forgive me if I'm asking for your secrets but how many people here are lurking all cashed up waiting to swoop in when this market crashes like some are expecting it to?
> I thought about it a year or so ago, so lucky I didn't "cash up* back then.


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## Skate (10 October 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> CBA under $40 is not unreasonable by November.
> 
> gg




CBA under $40 - my opinion differs 

If opinions didn't differ there wouldn't be any trading..

Skate.


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## Darc Knight (12 October 2018)

Back to 50/50 now.

Vanguards site went down at opening yesterday. I assume everyone paniced crashing the site.


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## sptrawler (12 October 2018)

Now all we on ASF need, is you chartist's, to tell us when it has bottomed.


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## Darc Knight (12 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Now all we on ASF need, is you chartist's, to tell us when it has bottomed.




That's the hard part isn't it. The influx of Index investors may have increased volatiity. I'm not smart enough to take that risk lol


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## Darc Knight (12 October 2018)

When Bellboys and Car washers are investing, it's time to get out I thought.


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## TheBigKangaroo (12 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Forgive me if I'm asking for your secrets but how many people here are lurking all cashed up waiting to swoop in when this market crashes like some are expecting it to?
> I thought about it a year or so ago, so lucky I didn't "cash up* back then.





Sorry for the dumb question.  I am very new.  What market are you talking about 'crashing'  cheers


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## wayneL (12 October 2018)

I cashed up out of US market last month,  no conscious timing on my part,  just different  goals. Fluked it. 

I don't an imminent crash as such,  but interest rates are going to make things very interesting I suspect ...  Sitting in cash for the moment.


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## Darc Knight (12 October 2018)

TheBigKangaroo said:


> Sorry for the dumb question.  I am very new.  What market are you talking about 'crashing'  cheers




Aus Shares, U.S. shares etc. Any market I guess. Take your pick


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## TheBigKangaroo (12 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Aus Shares, U.S. shares etc. Any market I guess. Take your pick





Yes ok, yes of course.  The "market" in general.  cheers


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## ducati916 (14 October 2018)

Is this a 'buy the dip' moment?

From the title of the thread, for those who are cashed up, is this enough of a dip, or do you wait for more losses and lower prices?

jog on
duc


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## Darc Knight (14 October 2018)

Are Value Investors leaving the market? You hear it a bit "there's not much value out there".


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## explod (14 October 2018)

ducati916 said:


> Is this a 'buy the dip' moment?
> 
> From the title of the thread, for those who are cashed up, is this enough of a dip, or do you wait for more losses and lower prices?
> 
> ...



"follow the trend until the bend" is an old but wise saying.

The financial markets continue to look very shaky in my view.   To me the trend is down.


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## Toyota Lexcen (14 October 2018)

the US economy is booming, could be good opportunity to get and index fund there

the rest of the world not so good, AUS in particular is very sick.

have an RE market in decline thanks to over regulation, shares that cant get over pre-GFC numbers,  political turmoil, over regulation of everything except minerals

slow move down over next 5-10years


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## wayneL (14 October 2018)

To me the can was kicked down the road in 2008 and there is a perfect storm in the offing at some stage.  Dont know when,  maybe not now,  but sometime.

The yanks *can engineer their way out of it,  so long as the Dems don't get control in midterms,  or worse,  POTUS.

But,  the fat tail looms imo.


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## greggles (14 October 2018)

Peter Schiff is saying that the current stock market bubble is bigger than it was in 2008 and the coming crash far larger.

https://www.rt.com/business/441197-stock-bubble-2008-crash/

Of course, Peter Schiff is known for his pathological bearishness but still, he may be right...


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## sptrawler (14 October 2018)

greggles said:


> Peter Schiff is saying that the current stock market bubble is bigger than it was in 2008 and the coming crash far larger.
> 
> https://www.rt.com/business/441197-stock-bubble-2008-crash/
> 
> Of course, Peter Schiff is known for his pathological bearishness but still, he may be right...



He is no doubt talking the U.S market, we certainly have a link to it, but at the end of the day one has to take each economy on its merits.

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/stock-market

Not much happening here, other than a lot of people pissing their pants IMO.

Click on historical, then on maximum time frame, nothing looks out of the average unless we are in for another first.


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## ducati916 (15 October 2018)

There are always a lot of narratives to choose from. At this moment you could choose from (a) interest rates, (b) valuations, (c) trade wars, (d) economy and probably a number of others.

My question still remains: after last week [US] those with cash, or existing portfolio: do you do anything? 

I will rebalance. Some of my stocks did well and only fell slightly, but are very attractive again from a dividend yield perspective. These I'll buy more of. Those that didn't fare so well, I will sell. So a rebalance. All have [apart from silver] have a high dividend, hence the rebalance. The ones that fell only slightly may have more capital gains potential than those that didn't

jog on
duc


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## sptrawler (15 October 2018)

One would think that buying opportunities are presenting, the all ords is back at what it was in March 2015, so three years growth gone in three weeks. lol
Don't you just love it.
The upside for us IMO is that the U.S probably has a way to go, as the Fed has indicated it will continue increasing rates, therefore with our election looming, Banking Royal Commission fall out and a falling U.S market buying opportunities should continue.
Just my thoughts.


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## Toyota Lexcen (15 October 2018)

Not good for existing share owners though SP


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## sptrawler (15 October 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Not good for existing share owners though SP



It will come back, it just gives those with shares, the opportunity to add more.IMO

The unfortunate ones, are those who are retiring soon and have relied solely on super. They may find it a scary proposition, but they will find it scary no matter when they do it, most do.


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## Darc Knight (16 October 2018)

Roger Montgomery doesn't sound too optimistic about the future. Saying our past higher than average returns are going to need being brought back to average.


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## PZ99 (16 October 2018)

I changed my superannuation from all-cash to 50/50 balanced/cash which kicks in today. 

So the real crash is ahead of us


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## tinhat (16 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Roger Montgomery doesn't sound too optimistic about the future. Saying our past higher than average returns are going to need being brought back to average.






Hello everybody. My name is Roger Montgomery. If you want to know the value of a company you just calculate the return on equity multiplied to the power of infinity. Valuing stocks is easy when you are as smart as me!


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## ducati916 (17 October 2018)

Assuming that you are going to buy today, what areas of the market going forward possibly a year, based on all the various narratives, would you prefer, or think that can outperform.

So when I rebalanced over the last 2 days I sold out of private equity and added to infrastructure. The general thesis being that rising interest rates make private equity deals harder to complete and that infrastructure generates [relatively] stable cashflows, hence yield, which interests me, should remain strong.

jog on
duc


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## CBerg (17 October 2018)

ducati916 said:


> Assuming that you are going to buy today, what areas of the market going forward possibly a year, based on all the various narratives, would you prefer, or think that can outperform.
> 
> So when I rebalanced over the last 2 days I sold out of private equity and added to infrastructure. The general thesis being that rising interest rates make private equity deals harder to complete and that infrastructure generates [relatively] stable cashflows, hence yield, which interests me, should remain strong.
> 
> ...




Resource & resource related stocks are my pick ducati916. I think there's already quite an uptick in those businesses reading the annual reports from some of the stocks in my list. Even with rising rates I still think there's room to grow in stocks yet.


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## sptrawler (17 October 2018)

So who is back in, and who thinks it is a dead cat bounce?


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## luutzu (17 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> So who is back in, and who thinks it is a dead cat bounce?




I've been buying a couple where I think it's pretty cheap. But I just got cash sitting there looking pretty so I guess I'm not all in.


----------

