# Serious newbie wanting to learn



## NewbieTrader1982 (9 February 2017)

Over the past 8 years or so I have been involved in property investment, mostly property development and have done very well for myself, turning 500k into about 10mil net worth and continue to develop real estate in Australia. I am in a position now (having 2 project managers help has freed much time) to try and learn some form of share trading using T/A and i want to give it a serious go. I understand the importance of mindset, discipline, risk mitigation, cash flow management etc as it relates to property development and have a very rudimentary understanding of it as it relates to stock trading from reading a few books. I guess what i am asking for is some direction on what to read, and specific strategies/techniques etc ? My main reason for wanting to learn is to A) create greater cash flow from a different asset stream and B) I have long had a genuine interest in TA and believe it just makes sense, to see the phycology of the crowd on a chart, and then be able to make sense of it a profitable way (something i would like to learn).

@tech/a many newbies here seem to look up to you mate, any direction/feedback/ help you can offer would be most appreciated. You said in 2004 " I know of 2 here (probably more) doing this right now returning every week at least and often way more than a decent wage.From Under $20,000 capital base." That's something I'm interested in, not using leverage but just a small capital base to create similar CF as that to start. Really would appreciate some direction.


regards
NT


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## tech/a (10 February 2017)

I would suggest futures minis or index.
You only need to trade 1-3 contracts.

Personally I trade the DAX while the missus watches
" Home and Away " and various other Reality Rubbish.

I find Price action and Volume analysis best for me.
While there is much available to the Retail Market the most useful is
That which you learn from observation. From the use and application of your
Chosen analysis to the nuisances of the instrument and those trading it that
You choose to trade. Only screen time will help here. It's not someone can teach
Which you'll understand when you have your style. Some is transferable but the
Stuff that really matters is developed.

Can Oz
T/H
Modest
Trade far more often and seriously than I do.

But you seem to have a background similar to my own.

You can trade short term or a position trade.
Keep it simple. It can be a long journey in fact it never ends 
But you don't have to be perfect only profitable.

You have at least over come a huge hurdle
Capital Base. Enjoy it truely is fascinating to some of us and I have a feeling
Your going to be one of them.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> I would suggest futures minis or index.
> You only need to trade 1-3 contracts.
> 
> Personally I trade the DAX while the missus watches
> ...





Thanks @tech/a for your feedback. You mentioned you find Price Action and Volume useul for yourself. Is there any specific resources/books you could direct me to that i would learn the basics? Any reason why you specifically mentioned Futures and Index mate as opposed to individual stocks?  I have read some Wycoff stuff and it looks very interesting, there is just so much information out there and i guess i want to start the right way, learning a system or approach that is proven to work and then build from that.

Something I've noticed which I am sure is probably so basic and seems too easy is when a stock is trading within a range for a few days or weeks etc and has clear support and resistance. Quite often it would seem that if it broke the resistance line it tends to climb and keep climbing. Seems too simple and easy ?

So anyway what I have got from your post is maybe Price/Volume analysis is a strategy to employ. Any good/practical resources?

@CanOz and @Modest would also love some feedback from you guys re direction on how to start.

Also @tech/a I read somewhere you made a large chunk of profit and bought a Commercial Property - well done mate.

Thanks guys

NT


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## fiftyeight (10 February 2017)

I wish I had found this course from Adam H Grimes at the start of my learning. It wont tell you exactly how to trade or give you a system, but will give you a good understanding in what makes a successful trader or system. Its free with no up sell for the "secret" you need like some free stuff on the net.

http://adamhgrimes.com/TAAS/the-course/

I also really enjoyed a book Grimes recommended 

_Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners_

Does a good job of explaining markets and who exactly you are trying to take money off


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

fiftyeight said:


> I wish I had found this course from Adam H Grimes at the start of my learning. It wont tell you exactly how to trade or give you a system, but will give you a good understanding in what makes a successful trader or system. Its free with no up sell for the "secret" you need like some free stuff on the net.
> 
> http://adamhgrimes.com/TAAS/the-course/
> 
> ...




Hi @fiftyeight

Appreciate your feedback and link to the course mate. Have you managed to find a trading style/system that suits your personality/risk profile and consistently be profitable from it?

Thanks again

NT


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## tech/a (10 February 2017)

At the office.
So will do over the weekend for you.

To add a little.
Ive studied most analysis Types from Steidlmayer (Or Market Profile ) A Can Oz'z fav.
To VSA. All have aspects worth incorporating even Elliot Wave Principal.

You have even spotted a basic. Which will conform only when it doesn't!
Futures due to leverage/liquidity and range. You can trade $35 a point on the Dax for around $8K margin.Where as trading Say NAB for $35 a point would cost 3500 x Share Price.
Ive seen people trade shares and I do myself very short term--but if concentrating on one thing for me it would be that (Futures).

More later.


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## fiftyeight (10 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Hi @fiftyeight
> 
> Appreciate your feedback and link to the course mate. Have you managed to find a trading style/system that suits your personality/risk profile and consistently be profitable from it?
> 
> ...




Ummmmm, that is not what the course is about. It is more designed to cover off the basics. No matter what style or time frame you choose stuff like random theory and how stop losses change a system need to be covered. Adam has his swing style which he uses as examples, but makes a point of saying that there are many ways to take money out of the market.

Nah I am still just newb who has read a few more books than yourself. I finally have a style that suits me and a few flashy charts I like but I need a lot more screen time. You will hear again and again from the experienced guys that screen time is king. Until I mange to get more screen time (on one market, I have flip flopped due to changing work schedule) I will be stuck at newb status, this should change soon though if a few things work out


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> At the office.
> So will do over the weekend for you.
> 
> To add a little.
> ...




Thanks Tech I would really appreciate that. Also, I will search Steidmayere  to see what's available. It seems that there are so many ways to skin a cat and there isn't '1 Ultimiate' method. Much like property investing, surprise surprise   Appreciate you taking the time to respond and help.

Cheers
NT


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

fiftyeight said:


> Ummmmm, that is not what the course is about. It is more designed to cover off the basics. No matter what style or time frame you choose stuff like random theory and how stop losses change a system need to be covered. Adam has his swing style which he uses as examples, but makes a point of saying that there are many ways to take money out of the market.
> 
> Nah I am still just newb who has read a few more books than yourself. I finally have a style that suits me and a few flashy charts I like but I need a lot more screen time. You will hear again and again from the experienced guys that screen time is king. Until I mange to get more screen time (on one market, I have flip flopped due to changing work schedule) I will be stuck at newb status, this should change soon though if a few things work out




Thanks Fifty, I will definitely look at the course link you sent, already joined. Would love to hear your journey as you progress too mate. Good luck to us both 

Cheers

NT


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## ThingyMajiggy (10 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Over the past 8 years or so I have been involved in property investment, mostly property development and have done very well for myself, turning 500k into about 10mil net worth and continue to develop real estate in Australia. I am in a position now (having 2 project managers help has freed much time) to try and learn some form of share trading using T/A and i want to give it a serious go.
> NT




With that sort of capital available(or even a fraction of that) you're pretty much guaranteed to succeed at this. Enjoy


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## Gringotts Bank (10 February 2017)

The ASF breadcrumber strikes again.  500k to 10 mill. in 8 years.  And he's asking advice on a web forum.

I started a search to find out who it is, and I've narrowed it down to fiftyeight.  Only fiftyeight people left on my list, but I should be able to narrow it down further.  Looks like he has a few new targets too.  Don't waste your time guys - he'll be at it for a while.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The ASF breadcrumber strikes again.  500k to 10 mill. in 8 years.  And he's asking advice on a web forum.
> 
> I started a search to find out who it is, and I've narrowed it down to fiftyeight.  Only fiftyeight people left on my list, but I should be able to narrow it down further.  Looks like he has a few new targets too.  Don't waste your time guys - he'll be at it for a while.




Hi GB,

I'm a genuine newbie in the world of trading mate. I understand property development very well and have done well for myself and I am interested to get some feedback from successful traders who are hopefully unbiased on materials out there and can give their feedback. Forums are a great resource and in fact, it really started my property development career getting in touch with the right mentors etc those years back. Not looking for any squabbles mate, just asking for some direction is all.

Thanks
NT


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> With that sort of capital available(or even a fraction of that) you're pretty much guaranteed to succeed at this. Enjoy




Thanks @ThingyMajiggy. In the world of trading, does a larger capital base = more success? I am not looking to leverage but rather just use a small amount of capital approx. 200k to start when I am ready. No idea when that will be though as I am still trying to figure this out and get some solid direction going.

Looking at Adam Grimes course and it seems quite in depth. Anyone else go over the material and believe it is worth learning?

Cheers
NT


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## ThingyMajiggy (10 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Thanks @ThingyMajiggy. In the world of trading, does a larger capital base = more success? I am not looking to leverage but rather just use a small amount of capital approx. 200k to start when I am ready. No idea when that will be though as I am still trying to figure this out and get some solid direction going.




Not more success but makes it a lot easier, if you keep going about it how you are, asking the right people and listening to what they say and putting in some hard work and lots of screen time most importantly. I wouldn't be working again if I had 200k to start with, but I don't. You're approaching it the right way so far. But I'm not one to listen to, just saying that one of the biggest hurdles is already behind you so you're off to a good start!

I would say listen to Trembling Hand, tech/a, minwa and check out Modest's thread to see about what kind of work/effort is required to put in. They are the guys I know can trade here. All the best mate, hopefully you get the two skills I'd love to be an expert in but never will, real estate and trading


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## Wysiwyg (10 February 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The ASF breadcrumber strikes again.  500k to 10 mill. in 8 years.  And he's asking advice on a web forum.



You are So Cynical, aren't you? (pun intended)  Yeah my first thought was to ask for evidence then thought it improper. They could be genuine looking to have a play with some spare cash but they could also be using the wealthy persona to attract better responses from the members here. I give people the benefit of doubt usually (unless blatant b.s.) and if they turn out false well it is to their own detriment.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Not more success but makes it a lot easier, if you keep going about it how you are, asking the right people and listening to what they say and putting in some hard work and lots of screen time most importantly. I wouldn't be working again if I had 200k to start with, but I don't. You're approaching it the right way so far. But I'm not one to listen to, just saying that one of the biggest hurdles is already behind you so you're off to a good start!
> 
> I would say listen to Trembling Hand, tech/a, minwa and check out Modest's thread to see about what kind of work/effort is required to put in. They are the guys I know can trade here. All the best mate, hopefully you get the two skills I'd love to be an expert in but never will, real estate and trading




Thanks for the encouragement mate and I will read up on Modest's threads over the weekend. By no means have I mastered real estate mate..just had the right mentors and also the markets I developed in have done exceptionally well over the last few years from organic growth, so when combined with projected profit margins and 80-90% leverage, it just snowballed. Some developments had a calculated return on Total Development Costs at 25% but when the project was completed..it was more like 60% thanks to organic growth Luck? I'm sure luck played a good part too 

Thanks again
NT


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> You are So Cynical, aren't you? (pun intended)  Yeah my first thought was to ask for evidence then thought it improper. They could be genuine looking to have a play with some spare cash but they could also be using the wealthy persona to attract better responses from the members here. I give people the benefit of doubt usually (unless blatant b.s.) and if they turn out false well it is to their own detriment.




Hi Wysiwyg,

I understand the cynicism - its really part and parcel of wealth creation and some attitudes from the masses and its completely fine. In hindsight I should probably have not mentioned  the net worth part - seems to be unnecessary on my part. Really I am only here to try and get some good direction on starting my education on stock training to see if I can get the knowledge and then develop the skills to be profitable. That's my only intention.

Cheers mate
NT


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## Wysiwyg (10 February 2017)

There is a property thread here with thousands of posts. Would you be interested in posting 2 cents worth there?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/the-future-of-australian-property-prices.17967/


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> There is a property thread here with thousands of posts. Would you be interested in posting 2 cents worth there?
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/the-future-of-australian-property-prices.17967/




I didn't even know there are property threads here as my intention was to just learn about trading and get some direction. I'm more than happy to look at the property threads and contribute though.

NT


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## Wysiwyg (10 February 2017)

fiftyeight said:


> http://adamhgrimes.com/TAAS/the-course/



Have you looked at the first units and have an opinion? Hard to believe someone would give so much time and resource for free.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Have you looked at the first units and have an opinion? Hard to believe someone would give so much time and resource for free.




yes mate, I just finished the first couple of lessons and it's pretty much laying the foundation I would assume to then build on. It does seem like an awful lot of information and time it took to prepare to be giving it away for free though. He does say he likes teaching etc etc but I am sure there is also a commercial intention behind the material (which to be honest I have no problem with and I understand good stuff is never free if you want the convenience of it all together rather than running like a headless chook all over the net... you always have to pay in some way). Still don't have really an informed opinion on him as I just started the course but like I said in my other post, really interested to know what others think of this gentleman.

He also says it takes at least about 5 years to even have a chance to trade profitably. Would love to hear opinions on that.

Cheers

NT


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## Rypieee (10 February 2017)

I started investigating into trading around the end of Dec 15 and up until now, I am still developing my own style and comfort-ability around my trading plan to find what I like and how I want to trade. I went through different styles briefly such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, pattern trading etc to find out what I ultimately want to focus into (Technical Analysis - Trend/Breakout) and going through that process took a bit of time (12 months + minimal movement in my portfolio value). 

You may get curious along the way - If you start off with technical analysis - breakout, you might be curious about pattern trading or EW or fundamental analysis and jump into the different styles and stuff yourself over like I did haha (at least now I know what I want to do and that I have "experienced" it all and am no longer curious of the different styles but just to focus on one and develop it).

I have read a lot of different books along the way and i'll be more than happy to share with you my reading list. I am now just reading books on how to improve my TA plan to start reading books on trading psychology.

"Chat with Traders by Aaron Fifield" (google it) is a podcast that I listen to while I'm at work and I found some great tips in there. Check it out as well but I would recommend to listen to it once you have an idea of your strategy/trading plan so that you can add in things you like and adjust it accordingly.

Personally for me, I prioritize the risk management component of my trading plan as the most important part and have learnt a great deal from Peter2 and other contributors. Idea behind that is that if I can control and master my downsides, I am then prepared to improve on increasing my profitability.

I am only trading stocks at the moment (with intention to dabble into the futures market once the stock's portfolio is running well and profitable) and have found Peter2's ASX Momentum Trade Book Part 2 very helpful in my development. Tech/a's interest charts thread has also given me guidance on how to approach breakouts and how to understand supply and demand in the market through volume analysis.

Another thing that I wish I had done was to not dive into the market with all my capital at the start - rather, to use perhaps 30-50% of my starting capital to test the waters and find out what sort of personality I have when it comes to trading before going in with the full amount. (Some might tell you to play with sim money first but I don't think you would learn as much or as fast than if you have real risk in the market).

ASF is truly a great forum and while the information can be a little scattered, especially when you first begin, there are truly gems within the threads that you can pick out.

I gotta get some property tips from you!


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## fiftyeight (10 February 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Have you looked at the first units and have an opinion? Hard to believe someone would give so much time and resource for free.




Yup I did most of the course a while back. Although not my style I took away a heap of good lessons and ideas


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

Rypieee said:


> I started investigating into trading around the end of Dec 15 and up until now, I am still developing my own style and comfort-ability around my trading plan to find what I like and how I want to trade. I went through different styles briefly such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, pattern trading etc to find out what I ultimately want to focus into (Technical Analysis - Trend/Breakout) and going through that process took a bit of time (12 months + minimal movement in my portfolio value).
> 
> You may get curious along the way - If you start off with technical analysis - breakout, you might be curious about pattern trading or EW or fundamental analysis and jump into the different styles and stuff yourself over like I did haha (at least now I know what I want to do and that I have "experienced" it all and am no longer curious of the different styles but just to focus on one and develop it).
> 
> ...




Hi @Rypieee, Thanks a lot for your great feedback and lengthy response mate. I can identify with your strategy of prioritising risk mitigation in order to stay in the game and fight another day, also a very important principle to property development, as risk needs to be taken into account at many levels.

I think I am in the process of doing what you did, that is, trying to see what you identify with and what works for your style and personality and then trying to master it, so I can totally relate to that. To be honest I am just overwhelmed with the information and strategies, techniques etc available and I am trying to find something that makes sense to me, before I commit a lot of time to it, basically trying to avoid wasting time on something that I will eventually realise is not the path I want to go...and in the end I'll probably still have to go through those motions before I get to a comfortable place I think.

Thanks for advising not to use all my capital in the beginning and I have read that in many places too so I definitely wont be doing that. Volume analysis also seems to make sense to me at this point as to something I might be able to work with, only time will tell.

Btw always happy to give my 2 cents if you have any specific property questions mate. 

Thanks again

NT


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## Trembling Hand (10 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> I am trying to find something that makes sense to me, before I commit a lot of time to it, basically trying to avoid wasting time on something that I will eventually realise is not the path I want to go.




Unfortunately that simply will not work. You cannot build the top floor penthouse without laying down the foundations and the levels in between. Consider the next few years an apprenticeship where you investigate and learn a little of everything before you decide on a specialty. 

The people that jump in will always run the risk of being shown the bright shinny and flashy new thing and be attracted to it. As a consequence be forever jumping from one thing to another. Not realising that its not the 'thing' that makes one successful but the process.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (10 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> Unfortunately that simply will not work. You cannot build the top floor penthouse without laying down the foundations and the levels in between. Consider the next few years an apprenticeship where you investigate and learn a little of everything before you decide on a specialty.
> 
> The people that jump in will always run the risk of being shown the bright shinny and flashy new thing and be attracted to it. As a consequence be forever jumping from one thing to another. Not realising that its not the 'thing' that makes one successful but the process.




Appreciate the wisdom mate.

 Cheers


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## Rypieee (10 February 2017)

I think what Trembling Hand said is also correct in the sense that you just gotta learn the basic foundation of trading, find which strategy appeals to you and then go develop your style from there. You could start off by trying out different general(broad) strategies like what I did which was fundamental analysis and technical analysis and even combining them both together and once you decide what sort of analysis you want to do, then delve into the deeper, more "advanced" techniques and hone your skills there. The process of finding your niche has no definite time frame, more importantly, it would be for you to not be rushed into a strategy just because you want to go "online" faster.

I am at the stage where I have just decided which analysis I want to go with and just mastering the very basics of managing my trading plan... wont be able to comment on the advanced stuff.

From a newbie to a newbie, the biggest thing you are going to struggle with is the amount of information thrown at you on the first go that you have - learning to be able to block out the "noise" and just focus on your own strategy without deviation was something I personally found difficult but through experience, can handle it better.

You will come across content and people with differing opinions that may cause you to doubt yourself because you don't carry any experience under your belt. Maybe it is just an initiation ritual of trading for newbies to go through such experiences

Another advice that I have for you that I wish I did for myself when I first started was to have a Trading Plan from day 1 of my trading - your TP does not necessarily need to be very concise and to the point when you first start and the idea of that initial TP is for you to have something to build on as you develop.


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## skc (10 February 2017)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> With that sort of capital available(or even a fraction of that) you're pretty much guaranteed to succeed at this. Enjoy




He's guaranteed to become a million-dollar-trader... especially if he starts with $5m.



Gringotts Bank said:


> The ASF breadcrumber strikes again.  500k to 10 mill. in 8 years.  And he's asking advice on a web forum.




I don't usually agree with you but this one does sound quite sus.

He claims that he's 34 years old. So 8 years ago he's 26 and had available $500k in capital AND the bank was willing to lend him 80-90% leverage (so about $2.5-4.5m loan). Back in the days development loan would have costed 7-8% at least. So that's $200-400k in interest alone that he needs to fund whilst the property is underdevelopment. It really sounds unlikely to expect an individual 26 year old to be able to carry this out financially under normal circumstances. He would need the support of something else (winning the lotto, rich family, money laundering, extremely high income job etc) to make it work.

To turn $500k into $10m over 8 years you would have to make 45% each and every year. And let's not forget there are taxes to pay when you sell your developed property. So even in a corporate structure we are talking about 30% tax so we are looking at almost 65% return before tax. I am not saying that it is completely impossible... but I say trust it as much you'd trust anything on the internet.



Gringotts Bank said:


> I started a search to find out who it is, and I've narrowed it down to fiftyeight.  Only fiftyeight people left on my list, but I should be able to narrow it down further.  Looks like he has a few new targets too.  Don't waste your time guys - he'll be at it for a while.




Do you mean the post @fiftyeight ? or 58 people that he could be?


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## fiftyeight (10 February 2017)

skc said:


> Do you mean the post @fiftyeight ? or 58 people that he could be?




The "Broke FIFO" story was doing nothing for my trading so I decided to switch to "Ultimate Property Developer", positive thinking and all that stuff


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## Gringotts Bank (11 February 2017)

I wonder what happened to Kelly and the 30 other fake nics. Been at least 58 days since I've seen her... I mean him.  Must take an enormous amount of energy to maintain so many screen names at once.  And an ability to hold a grudge for so long.  Toxic.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blo...01503/why-we-hold-grudges-and-how-let-them-go


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## Gringotts Bank (11 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> I understand the importance of mindset, Really would appreciate some direction.
> regards
> NT




I have heaps of articles on mindset and trading which might help you.  PM me.


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## ThingyMajiggy (11 February 2017)

skc said:


> He's guaranteed to become a million-dollar-trader... especially if he starts with $5m.




You got it  

It should certainly help if he can use a fraction of it and not have to worry if he blows it that he doesn't have to work for months/years to save up and try again, peace of mind to focus on trading.


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## Trembling Hand (11 February 2017)

I don't get too upset with these types of threads. From time to time the extraordinary story is the true one so if they are not blatantly full of sh!te and not selling anything I reckon there is nothing wrong with letting them run. Normally you get banter between other posters that is worth while(??). And lets be honest this place desperately need some new voices. Particularly some successful ones. If every loser imposes their own failures and limitations on others outcomes this place will end up being full of bitter sh!theads who argue about ideological rubbish in the general chat section. And anyone new will run a million miles from ASF.

Actually that is what ASF is..... too late, carry on.


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## Skate (11 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> If every loser imposes their own failures and limitations on others outcomes this place will end up being full of bitter sh!theads who argue about ideological rubbish in the general chat section. And anyone new will run a million miles from ASF.




Upon reading the current 'General Chats' section, I believe we have already reached this point.


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## Joe Blow (11 February 2017)

Just for the record, there is no evidence of any multiple accounts or multi-nicking going on in this thread. Please always give newcomers the benefit of the doubt. We *always* need new voices, so please welcome and encourage those who have just found us and would like to be a part of the ASF community.

As for the General Chat forum, it's nigh but impossible to stop people from discussing politics and religion. You can try, but it's like trying to hold back the tide. Besides, politics and the market are intertwined and cannot be separated. There will always be those with more dogmatic views and those who are more open to other ideas. Ignore those who irritate you and carry on discussion and debate with those you can have a constructive dialogue with.


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## Trembling Hand (11 February 2017)

Joe Blow said:


> Just for the record, there is no evidence of any multiple accounts or multi-nicking going on in this thread. Please always give newcomers the benefit of the doubt. We *always* need new voices, so please welcome and encourage those who have just found us and would like to be a part of the ASF community.




Well we will continue to lose people if other posters can get away with burning anyone who sticks there head out of the lurking trenches and get aggressively dumped on. Nothing wrong with a little skepticism but some people really need to sort their own issues first.


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## McLovin (11 February 2017)

skc said:


> To turn $500k into $10m over 8 years you would have to make 45% each and every year. And let's not forget there are taxes to pay when you sell your developed property. So even in a corporate structure we are talking about 30% tax so we are looking at almost 65% return before tax. I am not saying that it is completely impossible... but I say trust it as much you'd trust anything on the internet.




This doesn't sound totally unbelievable to me. Yes it's an excellent record, but property has been on a tear for the last 6 or so years. Couple that with gearing and you can make a tonne of money in a bull market.

It doesn't seem as though the OP is trying to flog anything either. It seemed more like he was just giving some background on himself.


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## tech/a (11 February 2017)

I think N/T is trying to weed out as much in necessary stuff as he can. If your looking to be successful in any endeavor you search out those who have succeeded before you. So wether genuine or not (I really don't care) Ill post up my thoughts because just 1 person out there N/T included may find something in it that is of benefit to them or prompts further investigation.

Ive had a strong interest in Trading for 22 yrs.
In that time Ive studied a lot that's out there and have adopted.

In no order.

*Pattern
Volume
Range 
Context
Recognition
Trade Management
Risk*

There are snippets of all of these in most books even the ones specializing in a particular aspect. Even Elliot Wave.

To be honest *I learnt most* from Systems testing and development.
Here you can see clearly what works/why it works/how to enhance it/what doesn't work/why it doesn't/how to minimises it.
Then you find out how to test and what you need to know to determine if a result is worth your money.

Systems trading is in a place of its own but the lessons learnt have been in valuable in my discretionary trading. There is some information cross over.

But for N/T the following is Discretionary trading based.
Remember the following references are from a 22 yrs period. Really the first 10 yrs were "Finding my way " and quite a few times I thought Id found it only to be "Fooled By Randomness!!"


Understanding Price action Bob Volman. ISBN 978-90-822786-0-6

https://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf

http://52traders.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/VSA-BASICS.pdf

The Secret Science of Price and Volume Timothy Ord ISBN 978-0-470=13898-4

A Complete Guide to Volume Price analysis Anna Coulling ISBN----self published
Google.

There is no simple way to become profitable.
You really need to understand how behaviour works for the instrument your going to trade
How to recognise opportunity
How to take advantage of it
Then actually doing it!

There are many more aspects which only Screen time, Wins and losses, good trades and bad trades,
Missed trades, should never have taken trades, and better handled trades will hone the experience you now crave.
There is a huge light at the end of the tunnel.
Currently you know its there but cant see it.
Your looking for direction to find it as soon as you can.

One day the light *WILL TURN ON*---literally.
You'll *KNOW* you now know how to trade profitably and consistently.

There will be many light bulb moments and one *EPIPHANY

Welcome on board!*


----------



## Joe Blow (11 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> Well we will continue to lose people if other posters can get away with burning anyone who sticks there head out of the lurking trenches and get aggressively dumped on. Nothing wrong with a little skepticism but some people really need to sort their own issues first.




I don't think we have any trolls here at ASF but clearly there are some people who hold very dogmatic positions, are not open to changing their views and are openly hostile to opposing beliefs. There is some friction as a result but pulling up someone by saying, "you are being too dogmatic" is problematic because of the grey area that exists that isn't there when someone calls someone else an idiot for example. 

As for newcomers I think that all new ASF members should be warmly welcomed and always given the benefit of the doubt until such time as there is reason to suspect otherwise. I find it disappointing when that doesn't happen and step in when I see that it has. ASF does need new blood and I urge everyone to be kind and welcoming to those who are new. There is no telling what geniuses might be turned away by being made to feel unwelcome.


----------



## minwa (11 February 2017)

skc said:


> I don't usually agree with you but this one does sound quite sus.
> 
> He claims that he's 34 years old. So 8 years ago he's 26 and had available $500k in capital AND the bank was willing to lend him 80-90% leverage (so about $2.5-4.5m loan). Back in the days development loan would have costed 7-8% at least. So that's $200-400k in interest alone that he needs to fund whilst the property is underdevelopment. It really sounds unlikely to expect an individual 26 year old to be able to carry this out financially under normal circumstances. He would need the support of something else (winning the lotto, rich family, money laundering, extremely high income job etc) to make it work.
> 
> To turn $500k into $10m over 8 years you would have to make 45% each and every year. And let's not forget there are taxes to pay when you sell your developed property. So even in a corporate structure we are talking about 30% tax so we are looking at almost 65% return before tax. I am not saying that it is completely impossible... but I say trust it as much you'd trust anything on the internet.




It's screaming all the signs..

- Generic name..do you think any person with massive success in another venture is gona call themselves Newbie username which sticks forever in another venture they are committing to
- Birth year at end of username, typical "post and vanish". How many active posters have their birth year in username ??
- Generic profile picture grabbed off first page of google images
- Mentions exact personal finance figures in first post
- Only posts made in own thread (plus 1 in property which is nothing more than intro after being linked). Newbies typically read through the popular threads and reply there.
- Tags T/A who coincidentally is also in properties..

Nevertheless, the responses are helpful I guess..


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 February 2017)

Thank you.  The two smartest and most profitable members ASF supporting this. 

Joe - get some new detection software.  It's buggering ASF.  Someone with that level of obsession (yeh I have evidence) is enough to make leave.  I know that's his ultimate aim, but I don't really care.  He can have it all to himself.


----------



## Joe Blow (11 February 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Joe - get some new detection software.  It's buggering ASF.  Someone with that level of obsession (yeh I have evidence) is enough to make leave.  I know that's his ultimate aim, but I don't really care.  He can have it all to himself.




I have good detection software in place, simply because ASF is a magnet for spammers and it is something that is necessary for a forum this size. I have conducted a number of checks and have found nothing suspicious. My policy is to wait until I know that someone has come here with an improper motive rather than banning people arbitrarily. I would rather delete some spam than lose new ASF members. 

I just think it's more productive to give people the benefit of the doubt. I don't really see the downside.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (11 February 2017)

Why would you want this thread closed down anyway, whether he's suspicious or not, he is yet to try and scam anyone or sell anything, and we could actually have a decent discussion about things that might help your trading from the likes of TH and tech/a(plus others who know what they're talking about) that will benefit us all, the thread has the right title that new traders can come to and it hopefully be filled with gems how on how to go about things the right way.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (11 February 2017)

Woah. I wasn't expecting to come back and see some of the responses...quite startling and somewhat toxic to be honest. I started typing a whole lengthy response and then stopped... and asked myself...seriously? really? Is this what I am here for. No. So I stopped, deleted my response and will focus on the reason of why I am here.

Thanks to all the guys and gals who are encouraging and post specific advice on where to start - really appreciated. Huge thanks to @tech/a, you've posted what looks like a GEM of a post at first glance and I will go over it tonight, formulate some questions for you and others and then post again re continuing my trading journey. Also I have been reading Stan Weinstein's "Secret of profiting and bull and bear markets", an old book but the principles seem very interesting. Anyone have any feedback on that book?

Thanks again to all.
NT


----------



## McLovin (11 February 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thank you.  The two smartest and most profitable members ASF supporting this.
> 
> Joe - get some new detection software.  It's buggering ASF.  Someone with that level of obsession (yeh I have evidence) is enough to make leave.  I know that's his ultimate aim, but I don't really care.  He can have it all to himself.




How about you show us the evidence or send it to Joe?


----------



## CanOz (11 February 2017)

Nothing wrong with that book for a starter, momentum based I believe?


----------



## skyQuake (11 February 2017)

fiftyeight said:


> I wish I had found this course from Adam H Grimes at the start of my learning. It wont tell you exactly how to trade or give you a system, but will give you a good understanding in what makes a successful trader or system. Its free with no up sell for the "secret" you need like some free stuff on the net.
> 
> http://adamhgrimes.com/TAAS/the-course/
> 
> ...




Looks like the same Adam Grimes of SMB Cap. Great to see some no nonsense stuff out there. Breezing through it now, hoping to pick up some gems


----------



## barney (11 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Woah. I wasn't expecting to come back and see some of the responses...quite startling and somewhat toxic to be honest.




Hi NT,  Don't be perturbed by some of the responses.  The fact that some have been seemingly skeptical about your intentions is nothing personal I can assure you.  

The trading world is infiltrated with charlatans and littered with victims who have been relieved of their hard earned, so when people here question the validity of your intentions treat it as an opportunity.  

If you have turned 500K into $10 mil then you are likely one of, if not THE wealthiest person on this forum.  Personally I hope you have done that and hats off if so because you are in a league I will certainly never be in!

Personally I'd contact Joe Blow and verify your status to eliminate any further skepticism ... that way hopefully you can get some good advice on trading and at the same time help others with some good advice on property investment ... win win!  Cheers.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (11 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> I think N/T is trying to weed out as much in necessary stuff as he can. If your looking to be successful in any endeavor you search out those who have succeeded before you. So wether genuine or not (I really don't care) Ill post up my thoughts because just 1 person out there N/T included may find something in it that is of benefit to them or prompts further investigation.
> 
> Ive had a strong interest in Trading for 22 yrs.
> In that time Ive studied a lot that's out there and have adopted.
> ...




@tech/a great post and very helpful mate. I have downloaded the 2 pdfs and I will go to Dymocks in the city on Monday to see if I can buy the other 2 books, otherwise I will buy them on line. Systems testing sounds very interesting, does it mean once you have put together a system you test it through a software? Does it require technical computer skills?, because that is not my strong suit to be honest.

So the pdfs and the other 2 books all seem to be around Volume analysis, any other resources you would say are 'invaluable' to have regarding patterns, risk management?

So far it seems that to be able to successfully trade you need to be able to see opportunity (? non randomness ) in the markets by understanding the crowd psychology in the chart and then utilising that to make profits on the upside while managing the risk on the downside.

In a way its similar to property investment, understanding how psychology of the crowd works, ie how it presents its self in the markets, what it looks like, what the indicators look like, and then being able to pounce at the right time. Property though does let you do a few things to add value to a deal and it's also very much like poker, in that, if your a better player than most people you will be able to secure better deals than most, making money from day 1 while greatly reducing your risk.

Anyway, I will print out those PDFS in office works and work my way through them and get those books. Looking forward to as you put it, "light bulb" moments, and then perhaps one day an epiphany of my own 

Really looking forward to starting this journey and posting how my progress is going with hopefully much feedback from the folks here.

Kind regards,
NT


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (11 February 2017)

CanOz said:


> Nothing wrong with that book for a starter, momentum based I believe?




Hi @CanOz, no I don't think so mate. According to a quick google search, " a *momentum* trader is only concerned with stocks in the news". So far from what I have read in his book he doesn't place much emphasis on FA and mostly looks at trends, MA, volume and RSI. I am only on page 45 though so not sure that the rest details.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz (11 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Hi @CanOz, no I don't think so mate. According to a quick google search, " a *momentum* trader is only concerned with stocks in the news". So far from what I have read in his book he doesn't place much emphasis on FA and mostly looks at trends, MA, volume and RSI. I am only on page 45 though so not sure that the rest details.
> 
> Cheers




http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/momentum.asp


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (11 February 2017)

barney said:


> Hi NT,  Don't be perturbed by some of the responses.  The fact that some have been seemingly skeptical about your intentions is nothing personal I can assure you.
> 
> The trading world is infiltrated with charlatans and littered with victims who have been relieved of their hard earned, so when people here question the validity of your intentions treat it as an opportunity.
> 
> ...




Hi @barney,

Thanks for your feedback. I am always happy to answer questions folks may have on property investing and try to give my 2 cents. I am not looking to prove anything to anyone mate so really what people want to believe is fine. I have nothing to sell (hell 99% of the knowledge I learnt for property investing is on the net and in books, irony is most believe it cant be that simple and there has to be a holy grail - doesn't exist). I am here just to get some direction and start my trading journey.

Cheers

NT


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (11 February 2017)

CanOz said:


> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/momentum.asp




Thanks for setting the record straight. That's kinda weird, you go onto google and type 'momentum trading' and this is what shows up "*Momentum traders* are truly a unique group of individuals. Unlike other *traders* or analysts who dissect a company's financial statements or chart patterns, a *momentum* trader is only concerned with stocks in the news. These stocks will be the high percentage and volume movers of the day."

Thanks for the link. Then yes, I would guess the book does focus on momentum trading as per the link you attached.

Cheers
NT


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

Just purchased this @tech/a  from TradersCode. Also seems his software is still not out.

Foundational Chart Analysis Series: "Support/Resistance Techniques of Professional Traders" - 6 DVD Home Study 

Also the book, The business of share trading, seems to be well recommended in the past.  Something I should order? 

I think with the pds you guided me to plus those books and now this Wyckoff course i bought..enough material to start?

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (12 February 2017)

I have the same course.
A good foundation in VSA
Unfortunately I don't think he has software anywhere near
Completion he has said the same thing for 5 yrs.

Remember all patterns and bar/volume patterns are indications of
Where you can anticipate price may go.
Without context treating them as signals to buy or sell is not wise.

With a few 1000 hrs of screen time you'll soon see what I mean.
Don't know of the book you mentioned

***Meant to mention as a fellow property buff.

I love the ability to buy an investment with the value of a property make a few % on it and sell it again in a matter of days/hrs/or minutes!-----with the click of a mouse.

WOW.***


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> I have the same course.
> A good foundation in VSA
> Unfortunately I don't think he has software anywhere near
> Completion he has said the same thing for 5 yrs.
> ...




"Remember all patterns and bar/volume patterns are indications of
Where you can anticipate price may go.
Without context treating them as signals to buy or sell is not wise."

Hmm...would I be on the right track by thinking when you say 'context' you're referring to the actions/history preceding a possible signal that could possibly enhance the meaning and reliability of the 'signal'..?

Also Unholy Grails, good to get?  or mostly covered from all the other vsa stuff Im buying.?

"*I love the ability to buy an investment with the value of a property make a few % on it and sell it again in a matter of days/hrs/or minutes!-----with the click of a mouse."
*
Yes the liquidity and speed of the transaction ( once your able to profit from trading ) is definitely a huge plus I would think.  I am not looking to build an asset base which really is the hardest part of wealth creation imho, I've already done that. What I'm looking to do is just add a possible CF stream in the future which is highly liquid. Also have been intrigued by TA for a long time just never had even 2 hours a day to devote any time to it. I do now so why not try and see where it leads me is my attitude

Thanks again

NT


----------



## tech/a (12 February 2017)

Radge is a mate.
And Daffy has a few pages in the book devoted to Tech Trader 
So a great read!


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> Radge is a mate.
> And Daffy has a few pages in the book devoted to Tech Trader
> So a great read!



Ok added to the list.  If i am average with computers and have no chance in hell in writing code, is systems trading something I should probably avoid?


----------



## tech/a (12 February 2017)

I'm a builder I'm old school
I'm about as computer savvy as 
Any duck. Designed tested and traded 
T/T live for 7 yrs. To attempt to prove
Idiots can design and trade a profitable 
System. Think that was achieved.

At some point you should learn. I think.


----------



## barney (12 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Hi @barney,
> 
> Thanks for your feedback. I am always happy to answer questions folks may have on property investing and try to give my 2 cents. I am not looking to prove anything to anyone mate so really what people want to believe is fine.




All good.  

You seem pretty methodical in your approach which is a good start .... good luck with your journey


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

barney said:


> All good.
> 
> You seem pretty methodical in your approach which is a good start .... good luck with your journey




Cheers @barney .

Are you an active profitable trader mate? Found any system that works for you?


----------



## craft (12 February 2017)

minwa said:


> It's screaming all the signs..






NewbieTrader1982 said:


> @tech/a many newbies here seem to look up to you mate, any direction/feedback/ help you can offer would be most appreciated. You said in 2004 " I know of 2 here (probably more) doing this right now returning every week at least and often way more than a decent wage.From Under $20,000 capital base." That's something I'm interested in, not using leverage but just a small capital base to create similar CF as that to start. Really would appreciate some direction.
> NT






NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Huge thanks to @tech/a, you've posted what looks like a GEM of a post at first glance




You got yourself a new fan Tech?


----------



## Valued (12 February 2017)

Momentum trading is risky though so if you do that you need to get your risk management sorted. You might still be in the trade when the ones who started the momentum are out. The worst is when the guys who started the up move are the ones selling to you when you go to buy. That doesn't mean you will lose necessarily since you could be front running people even more slower to the party than you but it's not a fantastic situation to be in and choosing when to exit is tough. It doesn't mean it isn't profitable but it does mean prices can come crashing down on you so where people get into trouble is they load up a CFD on say bitcoin/USD shove a few hundred backs in it, get a position worth tends of thousands of dollars, they see the price going to the moon and think it's fantastic then next thing you know it comes down harder and faster than you ever thought possible. Bitcoin is an interesting example because if you're long there is always a small chance something terrible and unpredictable is going to happen that can blow your entire account and then some (exchanges close, bitcoins stolen etc). The same can be said of penny stocks etc.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

Valued said:


> Momentum trading is risky though so if you do that you need to get your risk management sorted. You might still be in the trade when the ones who started the momentum are out. The worst is when the guys who started the up move are the ones selling to you when you go to buy. That doesn't mean you will lose necessarily since you could be front running people even more slower to the party than you but it's not a fantastic situation to be in and choosing when to exit is tough. It doesn't mean it isn't profitable but it does mean prices can come crashing down on you so where people get into trouble is they load up a CFD on say bitcoin/USD shove a few hundred backs in it, get a position worth tends of thousands of dollars, they see the price going to the moon and think it's fantastic then next thing you know it comes down harder and faster than you ever thought possible. Bitcoin is an interesting example because if you're long there is always a small chance something terrible and unpredictable is going to happen that can blow your entire account and then some (exchanges close, bitcoins stolen etc). The same can be said of penny stocks etc.




Thanks for the feedback mate. I don't know what kind of trader I will be at this point, still trying to get my head around different concepts/ideas ect to find a firm footing on the ground. I guess like anything else worth learning, there is a steep learning curve to start with. Was the same way with property.

Cheers


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

Dr Elder talks a lot about divergences with price and RSI etc. Just wondering if anyone utilises divergences as part of their trading repertoire? @CanOz @tech/a @Trembling Hand ?

Thanks guys


----------



## CanOz (12 February 2017)

I like divergence in the indices....from a daily as a potential precursor to a bottom or top. 

I've tested divergence on its own, it fails miserably.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

CanOz said:


> I like divergence in the indices....from a daily as a potential precursor to a bottom or top.
> 
> I've tested divergence on its own, it fails miserably.




So you mean you think its good for an index, for eg where there is a price divergence with the RSI, or something similar? Not for individual stocks?

So as a precursor to a bottom would mean if price is moving down but the RSI is sloping up?

Thanks


----------



## tech/a (12 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Dr Elder talks a lot about divergences with price and RSI etc. Just wondering if anyone utilises divergences as part of their trading repertoire? @CanOz @tech/a @Trembling Hand ?
> 
> Thanks guys




No too slow. But can have its place in Context.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

@tech/a what do you mean by 'too slow'?

Thanks


----------



## CanOz (12 February 2017)

Like divergence in the small caps vs the large caps.....or the eurostoxx vs the dax, or dax vs the ftse


----------



## skc (12 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Woah. I wasn't expecting to come back and see some of the responses...quite startling and somewhat toxic to be honest. I started typing a whole lengthy response and then stopped... and asked myself...seriously? really?




NT, I hope my response wasn't toxic. I remain skeptical but open to your claims. It's like someone coming here saying he won the lotto or is dating <insert your favourite actor/actress/model/sports star> - I know it's possible, I know the probability is relatively low, I won't need proof (alright I'd probably ask for proof if you say you are dating Angelina Jolie or something) and I will remain skeptical. I will care a lot more if they start to sell the "how to win the lotto" here. So until then, I welcome you to the forum, I hope you learn a great deal and make awesome contribution to the forum. 



McLovin said:


> This doesn't sound totally unbelievable to me. Yes it's an excellent record, but property has been on a tear for the last 6 or so years. Couple that with gearing and you can make a tonne of money in a bull market.




No.. in fact the numbers compute quite easily - with leverage the actual return on capital required (to achieve the claimed ROE) is not massive - certainly within the realms of recent market performance. But adopting the same rationale to say S&P 500 and you could turn a single contract requiring US$5.25k equity into many millions by compounding at every available opportunity. It's totally within the bounds of market return in the last 8 years, but I'd guess the number of people who achieved such is minimal.


----------



## jjbinks (12 February 2017)

Hi Newbie, 
I'm a newbie too so know what you are going through.
This site has a lot to offer but I think it needs to complement your own reading. When I first read some of the stuff on the website several years ago I thought it would be no use to me at all but coming back to them know I realise there are some useful learning points/gems there to take away. 

There are many different paths you can choose and all have there pros and cons. I am still reading, practising trying to work out what will work for me. 
Unholygrails is definitely a good read. (changed my perspective about trading).
Read some books by Van Tharp. 
Learn about risk management and try make sense how peter2 manages his trades in his tradebook.

If you are thinking of going down the line of futures there are some old trading diary type thread by pavillion aswell as more recent content by modest, canoz.

I think a few people have mentioned the chatwithtrader podcast also check out better system trader. I think there are some great interviews  you can learn from.

Good luck


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

skc said:


> NT, I hope my response wasn't toxic. I remain skeptical but open to your claims. It's like someone coming here saying he won the lotto or is dating <insert your favourite actor/actress/model/sports star> - I know it's possible, I know the probability is relatively low, I won't need proof (alright I'd probably ask for proof if you say you are dating Angelina Jolie or something) and I will remain skeptical. I will care a lot more if they start to sell the "how to win the lotto" here. So until then, I welcome you to the forum, I hope you learn a great deal and make awesome contribution to the forum.
> 
> 
> 
> No.. in fact the numbers compute quite easily - with leverage the actual return on capital required (to achieve the claimed ROE) is not massive - certainly within the realms of recent market performance. But adopting the same rationale to say S&P 500 and you could turn a single contract requiring US$5.25k equity into many millions by compounding at every available opportunity. It's totally within the bounds of market return in the last 8 years, but I'd guess the number of people who achieved such is minimal.




Hi @skc,

I guess I can understand where you are coming from mate. The thing is, I am not trying to sell or flog anything property related whatsoever. In fact, I have mentioned that most of what I've learnt of real estate is free and readily available on the net and in books. So absolutely have no ulterior motive and really just want to learn about TA in trading.

With regards to how I have done in real estate, to be honest many of my peers have done even better over the last 8 or so years, mainly due to a larger starting capital and also a higher overall risk profile. The returns in real estate can be staggering, especially if you are able to do two things. 1. leverage and have the serviceability to afford the leverage (though once you get into commercial loans serviceability is much less important), and 2. utilise an active 'Add Value' strategy which allows you to do a feasibility that indicates profitability even before the property/site is bought, and therefore not reliant on organic growth or the B&H method to make money. That is pretty much what I had focused on, learning how to do thorough due diligence, buy Below Market Value, then Add Value. Also what boosted my returns were the bull markets I invested in. Partly luck, partly calculated guess re market movement, though I was not reliant on it in order to make a good margin. I would say overall for the strategy I chose and leverage used my risk profile was 7.5-8/10.

I am happy to contribute to anyone who has property related questions. I myself am here though not to sell or flog anything, just to learn from others who have gone before me how to gather the trading knowledge, then try to develop the skills.

Cheers


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (12 February 2017)

jjbinks said:


> Hi Newbie,
> I'm a newbie too so know what you are going through.
> This site has a lot to offer but I think it needs to complement your own reading. When I first read some of the stuff on the website several years ago I thought it would be no use to me at all but coming back to them know I realise there are some useful learning points/gems there to take away.
> 
> ...




Thanks @jjbinks for your feedback. I had a flip through unholy Grails at the book store, do you need software to put it into action?

Also how do I find Peter2's Trade Book? You're right there is so much great information on here it will take awhile to sift through it. Appreciate the direction.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (13 February 2017)

craft said:


> You got yourself a new fan Tech?




*What can I say!!
Charm
Witt
Guile *


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (13 February 2017)

So update:

Been reading much of the night... long story short, at first glace - Systems Trading seems to be very interesting and makes a lot of sense IF it actually works.

Any opinions? Especially on Radge's turn key systems? Anyone use systems here and has been successful over a period of time?

Cheers


----------



## barney (13 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Cheers @barney .
> 
> Are you an active profitable trader mate? Found any system that works for you?





Active? .. I was like a malfunctioning thyroid gland ..Over-active lol   (I've curtailed that habit now!)

Profitable? ... Last 3 years yes.  (Since I stopped over-trading on FX and went back to Specs)

System?  Happy to share my "system"..... I look for low market cap Specs with "potential"

"Potential" includes the following qualities ..... good assets, good management, and a reasonable bank balance so they are not going to bleed the SH's dry in the short term with cap raisings.

I look for bottom reversals on increased Volume and try to accumulate large positions over time (ie Scale in)  If its very Spec, sell a % into the news.  If it looks the goods, hold on for the ride!

About as simple as it gets .... Slow motion discretionary trading

PS I always wanted to be a high rolling Futs trader like the 'T-man' but as Clint Eastwood said, A man has to know his limitations  .... welcome back by the way TH.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (13 February 2017)

barney said:


> Active? .. I was like a malfunctioning thyroid gland ..Over-active lol   (I've curtailed that habit now!)
> 
> Profitable? ... Last 3 years yes.  (Since I stopped over-trading on FX and went back to Specs)
> 
> ...




Great stuff. Sounds like you also use a lot of FA and not purely TA?

When you say your a Discretionary trader, does that mean you follow a set of rules but have the discretion to follow or not follow the buy singals of your System? as opposed to accepting all signals of the System? Though what conflicts in my mind is, If PE is based on ALL 'plays' and not selective, then by being 'too' discretionary, wouldn't that affect the PE?

Thanks again


----------



## barney (13 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Great stuff. Sounds like you also use a lot of FA and not purely TA?
> 
> When you say your a Discretionary trader, does that mean you follow a set of rules but have the discretion to follow or not follow the buy singals of your System?




95% Mining stocks, so FA to the point that I want to see  something in the drill results before I'll stump up any cash.  I know tech/a is happy to 'buy off the plan" (chart only) so to speak, but I like to know something about what the dudes who run the office have been up to.

My system is all in my head  No concrete rules, all gut feel based on what I used to do wrong lol 

PS I used to do a lot wrong so I learned a lot!


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (13 February 2017)

barney said:


> 95% Mining stocks, so FA to the point that I want to see  something in the drill results before I'll stump up any cash.  I know tech/a is happy to 'buy off the plan" (chart only) so to speak, but I like to know something about what the dudes who run the office have been up to.
> 
> My system is all in my head  No concrete rules, all gut feel based on what I used to do wrong lol
> 
> PS I used to do a lot wrong so I learned a lot!




Appreciate your input mate. And finally a term I am familiar with " buy off the plan" ..

Thanks again.


----------



## jjbinks (13 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Thanks @jjbinks for your feedback. I had a flip through unholy Grails at the book store, do you need software to put it into action?
> 
> Also how do I find Peter2's Trade Book? You're right there is so much great information on here it will take awhile to sift through it. Appreciate the direction.
> 
> Cheers



Re holygrails
You need amibroker and access to norgate premium data to test mentioned strategies. Both of which you can get a free trial for to test first if you plan to. 

Re peter2 tradebook 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/asx-momentum-trade-book-part-2.29971/


----------



## Modest (14 February 2017)

I really got a lot from reading Tom William's Undeclared Secrets of the Stockmarket book (do not let the title put you off) I've read this book start to finish about 4 times.


----------



## Valued (14 February 2017)

Modest said:


> I really got a lot from reading Tom William's Undeclared Secrets of the Stockmarket book (do not let the title put you off) I've read this book start to finish about 4 times.




I prefer Anna Coulling to Tom Williams. Anna actually went to one of Tom's courses back in the 90s and she said it was kind of a scam but it set her on a path of learning about volume (but she is more forex orientated). I ended up sending her an email about it but I am too lazy to dig it up. She didn't really know Tom Williams well though since it was another guy who did a lot of it but Tom was introduced as a "syndicate trader" but she still doesn't know what a syndicate trader is. Volume analysis is ok, has its uses I think. Perhaps questionable sometimes and it should be read in context. I like the effort vs result type analysis though since it makes me think about why something may have happened. I think now though volume has to be read in context and that using volume on a candle per candle basis is probably bad.

I am not so sure about the whole accumulation and distribution theory on daily timeframes or higher. In reality, hedge funds are taking positions opposite to each other all the time. Big players are constantly trading against each other in forex markets too. It's also really expensive to be wrong in huge market with huge liquidity because if the "smart money" invests that much to take the price where they want it they can end up being wrong in a big way and losing tonnes. They have to limit their risk and this limits their ability to conduct the operations that the "smart money" is accused of, especially in forex and futures. It is possible in smaller stocks though. Fundamentals can provide an element of unpredictability and I think this restrains the manipulation that can occur on the longer time frames. Maybe it's possible on the hourly chart but I think it's unrealistic on the longer time frames for accumulation and distribution to occur where it is the smart money vs the retail traders.

The above doesn't count though to the actions of governments/central banks in forex. That's another kettle of fish but they arn't accumulating and distributing in accordance with this "smart money" theory.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

Modest said:


> I really got a lot from reading Tom William's Undeclared Secrets of the Stockmarket book (do not let the title put you off) I've read this book start to finish about 4 times.




Thanks @Modest. Do you use VSA so help you with your system? Have you found a system over time that works for you consistently?

Thanks again


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

Valued said:


> I prefer Anna Coulling to Tom Williams. Anna actually went to one of Tom's courses back in the 90s and she said it was kind of a scam .




Hi Valued, can you elaborate a little more What do you mean by 'kind of a scam' ?

Thanks

Also ordered a few days ago Anna Coulling's book on "the complete guide to VSA".

Thanks


----------



## Modest (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Thanks @Modest. Do you use VSA so help you with your system? Have you found a system over time that works for you consistently?
> 
> Thanks again




Yes I still use it today as a point of information to help me with decision making, it is a one data point out of many that I take into consideration though. I am more of a swing trader and look for 20+ tick moves so for me context is very important. Context is a strange thing - the experienced members spoke of this in my early days I never quite understood it until I devoted many hundreds of hours of screen time.

There are traders who trade VSA mostly with great success, @captain black is one such trader who trades for a living and is almost completely automated. If you want to go down that route check out his recent thread where he shares his setups - great thread.

Other concepts that I use:
- Wyckoff - at the core of my trading

-Support & Resistance - Exists on every single time frame learn to see it figure out its a dynamic concept (Prior R turns to S and Prior S turns to R)

Price action - no this is not Japanese candlestick patterns in isolation don't fall for that trap 

-Supply and Demand - always be asking yourself where are the stacked orders (I'm not talking about DOM)? Watch a bunch of Sam Sniden videos on supply and demand they're ok no need to buy his service as he covers all the basics in his freely available material

Goodluck


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

Modest said:


> Yes I still use it today as a point of information to help me with decision making, it is a one data point out of many that I take into consideration though. I am more of a swing trader and look for 20+ tick moves so for me context is very important. Context is a strange thing - the experienced members spoke of this in my early days I never quite understood it until I devoted many hundreds of hours of screen time.
> 
> There are traders who trade VSA mostly with great success, @captain black is one such trader who trades for a living and is almost completely automated. If you want to go down that route check out his recent thread where he shares his setups - great thread.
> 
> ...




Great help and further direction. I will check it out. Nick Radge has a simple strategy on his website re swing trading which used the ABC formation, RSI or similar below 20 and a tight bar to indicate a buy singal for a reversal of trend back up. This is also assuming the greater trend is also going long. Very simple and seems to work many times when I eye ball them. Also using a risk/reward ratio of 3 to 1 otherwise he says don't take the trade. He says its a very conservative method but hes ben trading it for 20 years. Just wondering if its a good newbie pattern to start, if there is such a thing...?

I think I have heaps of good material and direction now. @tech/a has also been very generous with his time to me here and off forum. This is really a great place to learn.

My plan is to
1. Read the materials everyone has already recommended.
2. Look at charts to just to familiarise my eyes/brain to a chart.. even if I don't know what I'm seeing.
3. Follow some of the great threads on the forum to learn more
4. Post questions as I read and may need clarification on some things
5. Hopefully after all that I will have some idea of a system/method that may suit my needs/goals/personality
6. Start trading it (don't know when that will be ). Its very easy for me to start trading right now with an account but it would be purely gambling at this point.


Also I have started a journal to document my journey. I actually find this journey quite a relaxation for my mind from real estate which is a nice feeling I am coming to realise 


Does my plan sound reasonable?


----------



## tech/a (14 February 2017)

As good as any.


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## Trembling Hand (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Just wondering if its a good newbie pattern to start, if there is such a thing...




No there is totally not a thing. *T/A doesn't work.* Just the same as an uppercut in a pub fight doesn't 'work' or a 60 meter kick in AFL doesn't work. Petrov's Defense in chess doesn't work. A flanking maneuver doesn't work in battle. They all depend on context. Do it at the wrong time and your enemy will have you for breakfast. In trading if you are new and you can see it it's because its a robe a dope move (that always works).


----------



## Valued (14 February 2017)

A newbie signal loses money since you trade it and make mistakes. Take a candle pattern like a bullish engulfing candle. You can make money trading that or you can lose money trading it, depending on the trades you take. The trade isn't so much about the engulfing candle. It's about the wider context but an engulfing candle or just any strong looking up bar on reasonable volume may be a good sign to enter. Keep in mind this is different depending on time frames. I do not trade under the 4 hour chart and I trade extremely liquid markets, mostly forex and sometimes index futures and so the "traps" are a bit different. I would likely be terrible trying to trade the 15 minute dax the way I would trade 4 hour AUDUSD. The reason I say this is that the engulfing candle I am talking about well maybe that works on some time frames in some contexts in some markets but then the pattern isn't so much the engulfing candle, that's just an entry signal and it's not because it is engulfing but because it is telling me something about supply and demand in a certain context. If you just trade an engulfing candle you will lose money.

I also consider broader market fundamentals though so I take trades that tend to make some sense, especially on my higher time frames and so if you know the S&P 500 has to go up due to the broader macroeconomic context then if you see a signal to short you might not want to take that.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

From the advice I am hearing, it doesn't matter what system/approach you use, context is very important. When you say context are you talking about what else is happening/happened in the scenario and not just looking at a signal in isolation? Correct?

Thanks


----------



## Triathlete (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> From the advice I am hearing, it doesn't matter what system/approach you use, context is very important. When you say context are you talking about what else is happening/happened in the scenario and not just looking at a signal in isolation? Correct?
> 
> Thanks




Trading in the right context can make a huge difference. Being able to understand the market context in which you are making trading decisions can help you filter out potentially troublesome trades and enable you to get into high probability trades more often.


----------



## tech/a (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> From the advice I am hearing, it doesn't matter what system/approach you use, context is very important. When you say context are you talking about what else is happening/happened in the scenario and not just looking at a signal in isolation? Correct?
> 
> Thanks




Yes


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

I have been thinking about about the Money Management side of it. I guess even if you took any 'system' or 'pattern', only traded set ups that had a risk/reward of at least 3 to 1 and kept the percentage trading each trade to be exactly the same or very similar.. then you would have a very good chance to come out ahead even if you lost the majority of trades provided the pattern you chose and executed was half decent while using a 3 or greater to 1 risk/reward.

Does that make sense...? And IF that is true, then people who want to waste money on roulette.. would be much, much better to 'gamble' in this way, at least the odds are in their favour.. no?


----------



## galumay (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> much better to 'gamble' in this way, at least the odds are in their favour.. no?




Think about that....if the odds were truly in your favour then you couldn't lose in the long run. If such a 'system' existed we would all be using it, and all be getting rich.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

galumay said:


> Think about that....if the odds were truly in your favour then you couldn't lose in the long run. If such a 'system' existed we would all be using it, and all be getting rich.




hmm.. but even a great system needs to be implemented by people with different mindsets, emotions, discipline etc etc. Surely that would have to impact results..Its like real estate, there are great ways to make money and get an edge in the market yet most never do it. Doesn't necessarily mean there isn't a way or even if you give 100 ppl 'the way', their own mindsets will often screw it up. I am a total newbie in trading so i am not sure if my thinking is true for trading, but i know its definitely true in real estate.

Also, if we truely would never be able to get the 'odds' in our favour by trading somewhat predictable pattens and overall have consistent profits in the longer terms... then why are we all here...

Appreciate your feedback mate.


----------



## galumay (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Also, if we truely would never be able to get the 'odds' in our favour by trading somewhat predictable pattens and overall have consistent profits in the longer terms... then why are we all here...




Well not all of us believe you can - I guess thats why many of us are not traders! Anyway, i dont want to drag your thread off topic, and my contributions will not be constructive! Lets just leave it with my off the cuff comment about what would really happen if the odds were in your favour!


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> I guess even if you took any 'system' or 'pattern', only traded set ups that had a risk/reward of at least 3 to 1




That sounds simple and common sense enough. In practise a 3:1 ratio and a pattern or system that is always present in markets is as common as rocking horse turds.


----------



## barney (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> ..Its like real estate, *there are great ways to make money and get an edge in the market yet most never do it.*




Innovation .... seeing patterns that are not "obvious" to the mainstream .... having the ballz to back your gut against the crowd ...... familiar parallels in any successful venture in life I'd suggest ....

Whether real estate, trading, or anything else, you seem to have the right mindset for success in my opinion ...... the value of my opinion of course may be debatable.


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## tech/a (14 February 2017)

You'll find that the simplest and most logical ideas eventually appear complicated and anything but logical.

This simple truism will demonstrate what I mean.

There are only 3 ways to make money in the markets ( other than arbitrage )
(1) Win more often than you lose with accumulated wins more than losses.
(2) Have far bigger wins than losses.
(3) A combination of both.

No way in time you'll realise that there is far more to achieving any of these than buying a pattern or trading a system.

Just when you think you " Get it " it will vapourise.
Take your time 
Question everything


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

galumay said:


> Well not all of us believe you can - I guess thats why many of us are not traders! Anyway, i dont want to drag your thread off topic, and my contributions will not be constructive! Lets just leave it with my off the cuff comment about what would really happen if the odds were in your favour!




No worries, I guess your a long term investor?


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> You'll find that the simplest and most logical ideas eventually appear complicated and anything but logical.
> 
> This simple truism will demonstrate what I mean.
> 
> ...




Then how do you know when you really 'get it? And when you say there is far more than a pattern of system, are you talking about money management/risk management, mind set? or?

Because going off a post you made awhile ago, there definitely is an 'IT" to get..


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> That sounds simple and common sense enough. In practise a 3:1 ratio and a pattern or system that is always present in markets is as common as rocking horse turds.




Then how  do you trade?


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

barney said:


> Innovation .... seeing patterns that are not "obvious" to the mainstream .... having the ballz to back your gut against the crowd ...... familiar parallels in any successful venture in life I'd suggest ....
> 
> Whether real estate, trading, or anything else, you seem to have the right mindset for success in my opinion ...... the value of my opinion of course may be debatable.




I agree with you that mindset is huge for wealth creation. I spent copious amounts of time and work on it in the past for my investments... really a lot of work on it. Imho, speaking more broadly, it is the absolute key.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Then how do you know when you really 'get it? And when you say there is far more than a pattern of system, are you talking about money management/risk management, mind set? or?
> 
> Because going off a post you made awhile ago, there definitely is an 'IT" to get..




You know exactly why you make money and exactly why you don't.
You know how to recognise opportunity 
You know how to take advantage of it.

You know exactly what to do and when.
Your losses will be as brilliant as your wins.
It never leaves you.
There are no doubts.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (14 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> Your losses will be as brilliant as your wins.
> .




But am I correct to assume your loses (in dollar value) shouldn't equal your wins when you know what you are doing long term?


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## CanOz (14 February 2017)

Newbie, if you go down the route of development and testing EOD trading systems, you'll learn so much about expectancy....it's the way to go when you start out. It teaches you how difficulty it is to beat the index


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## tech/a (14 February 2017)

In accumulated $ value no they shouldn't ----- but there will be times when in drawdown that they will be. You'll recognise this and know what to do to minimise downside risk.
This should be a temporary state.


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## barney (14 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> I agree with you that *mindset is huge for wealth creatio*n. I spent copious amounts of time and work on it in the past for my investments... really a lot of work on it. Imho, speaking more broadly, *it is the absolute key*.
> 
> Cheers




Thanks for that NT ...

My take re trading ... 

Successful trading is a journey where you work out that what you previously "hoped" was right (correct) ended up being "left" (incorrect) because hope and trading don't mix .... 

Traders need to be ruthless with their decisions ..... Imagine for the sake of the exercise that if you take a trade, and a well known trading guru (... your choice) is standing behind you ... 

would he say; "good trade" or would he say "WTF" did you do that for lol  .......  not your standard "indicator" but probably a better indicator than an MA or an RSI I'd suggest!


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## NewbieTrader1982 (15 February 2017)

Sam Seiden videos on how to determine where is supply and demand levels and how you should be buying wholesale at a demand level and sell when the retail people are buying looks very interesting and makes sense. He says at those buy times into demand the probability of success is very high, of course assuming a few other factors also line up. Also seems to be inline with what a few other well known traders say. He also doesn't like the term 'support and resistance' and replaces it with supply and demand. It is an eye opener. Anyone else have an opinion on 'his' stuff?

Thanks


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> They all depend on context. Do it at the wrong time and your enemy will have you for breakfast. In trading if you are new and you can see it it's because its a robe a dope move (that always works).



Like Harry Hindsight teachers. Anyone can cherry pick the best charts from the millions upon millions available and show the strategy worked. I watched this video last night where the dude cherry picked winning trades that bounced off old resistance. Pivot points that were obvious. Context required for Harry H.


----------



## tech/a (15 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> Sam Seiden videos on how to determine where is supply and demand levels and how you should be buying wholesale at a demand level and sell when the retail people are buying looks very interesting and makes sense. He says at those buy times into demand the probability of success is very high, of course assuming a few other factors also line up. Also seems to be inline with what a few other well known traders say. He also doesn't like the term 'support and resistance' and replaces it with supply and demand. It is an eye opener. Anyone else have an opinion on 'his' stuff?
> 
> Thanks




I don't know this guy.
But I have used for a few years Volume support and Volume resistance.
Ill have to look at his stuff as I haven't seen what I do for myself taught
or used by anyone else. The volume Support and or Resistance is based around
high bullish or Bearish volume and is more a zone.
OH
and it works in REALTIME.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (15 February 2017)

The basic logic seems sound.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 February 2017)

NewbieTrader1982 said:


> The basic logic seems sound.



Spent 5 min watching it and wanted to kill myself.....


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## Trembling Hand (15 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> Spent 5 min watching it and wanted to kill myself.....



Find it hard to take anyone serious showing spot FX charts with no volume and talking about supply and demand. WTF are these dudes on.... ?


----------



## Habakkuk (15 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> Find it hard to take anyone serious showing spot FX charts with no volume and talking about supply and demand. WTF are these dudes on.... ?




Sam Seiden works for Online Trading Academy. The purpose of those videos is to show that you can buy at 'wholesale' prices and sell at 'retail'. The average punter will be mighty impressed but can't make head nor tail of those charts. The solution is to sign up for a course. Not just any or even one course. Should you be gullible enough, you get an education- or career-counselor assigned to you who will extract the maximum money, correction - 'tailor a unique series of courses' for your budget. They talk about four Asset Classes: stocks, FOREX, futures and options, I kid you not.

I know all that from a presentation at or after a Trading Expo a few years ago. A lot of people signed up, it was amazing, such an obvious scam. One of the presenters was a former astronaut or something, all very entertaining.


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## Valued (15 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> I don't know this guy.
> But I have used for a few years Volume support and Volume resistance.
> Ill have to look at his stuff as I haven't seen what I do for myself taught
> or used by anyone else. The volume Support and or Resistance is based around
> ...



Isn't that just VAP, volume at price?


----------



## barney (15 February 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> Spent 5 min watching it and wanted to kill myself.....




Lol ......

I made the mistake of listening for *6* minutes ......


----------



## tech/a (15 February 2017)

Haha Looks like it was time to up grade anyway!!


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 February 2017)

Come on fellas. There is a tonne of b.s. to wade through at the start. Everyone has to start somewhere and free online courses is what some choose. If they are duped from there in it is also a trading lesson. Has anyone had a look at the Wall Street Insider Kit?


----------



## barney (15 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> Haha Looks like it was time to up grade anyway!!




Whadoyamean!!    Pentium 2 with 0.5 gig of ram and a 5 meg hard drive  ..... State of the art!


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## barney (15 February 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Come on fellas. There is a tonne of b.s. to wade through at the start. Everyone has to start somewhere and free online courses is what some choose. If they are duped from there in it is also a trading lesson. Has anyone had a look at the Wall Street Insider Kit?




Yeah I agree Wys.    Certainly not trying to make light of NT's searching for stuff to read etc.   There is just a lot better stuff out there than Sammy is offering ..... I'm pretty sure NT is smart enough to sort out the wheat from the chaff after a bit more investigation.


----------



## smallwolf (15 February 2017)

To NT82,

The Weinstein book you refer to a quite good I think.  There are plenty of "older" books that quite good to read, even "The Art of Speculation" by Carret. If you think about it, one of the consideration in Peter's system here, and Jim Bergs and <insert name here> all use moving average in some form, despite always being spoken of an negative light as LAGGING. Even if you don't agree with what you read, you have worked out what you don't like.

The more you read the more you think (in my case) that things don't really change that much!

(And to whoever posted about the adding year to name... I do that for many email related accounts as "name" is otherwise taken, and by appending a 'year' makes it unique. So give him some slack.... never know, if NT hangs around we might learn something from him .... even!)

Cheers


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (15 February 2017)

All part of my learning/sifting/thinking/discarding etc journey. I appreciate all the feedback very much. I'll get 'there'. I never give up. Even if 'there' means i come to the conclusion its not for me, I will still consider the journey a success.

I have some great material to read and process, mostly on VSA, money/risk management and positive expectancy. I am thoroughly enjoying the journey so far. No pressure means i can really absorb it.

Thanks again.


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (15 February 2017)

barney said:


> Yeah I agree Wys.    Certainly not trying to make light of NT's searching for stuff to read etc.   There is just a lot better stuff out there than Sammy is offering ..... I'm pretty sure NT is smart enough to sort out the wheat from the chaff after a bit more investigation.




Thanks mate. I did the same thing with real estate, and it took time. There is sooo much nonsense being peddled out there that its a minefield so i can expect the same in the trading world. It feels 'fun' being a newbie again.  

Cheers


----------



## NewbieTrader1982 (15 February 2017)

smallwolf said:


> To NT82,
> 
> The Weinstein book you refer to a quite good I think.  There are plenty of "older" books that quite good to read, even "The Art of Speculation" by Carret. If you think about it, one of the consideration in Peter's system here, and Jim Bergs and <insert name here> all use moving average in some form, despite always being spoken of an negative light as LAGGING. Even if you don't agree with what you read, you have worked out what you don't like.
> 
> ...




Thanks mate, yep his book is an oldie but i am working through it and enjoying the concepts. He tends to keep it very simple which is a recurring theme i am hearing from quite a few successful traders, simple is best. I spoke to Nick Radge this morning and he basically said the same thing, doesn't need to be so complicated.

With regards to the other earlier negative comments, its all good. That stuff doesn't penetrate my mental buffer in the slightest. 

Cheers


----------



## minwa (15 February 2017)

smallwolf said:


> (And to whoever posted about the adding year to name... I do that for many email related accounts as "name" is otherwise taken, and by appending a 'year' makes it unique. So give him some slack.... never know, if NT hangs around we might learn something from him .... even!)




NewbieTrader is not taken on this forum. First post on forum stating how much exact profit made instead of just say "a good profit in property market". It's all the factors added together. I just pointed out the many factors of usually sus accounts.

We had another member in the forex part who came here with dubious claims and later exposed to be full of lies.

Doesn't bother me either way, I point what I see out - people can make own conclusions. I would've gave my 2 cents on learning without those potential red flags. Didn't matter in the end, plenty of advice was given anyway.


----------



## Valued (16 February 2017)

Why does it matter anyway if it's a second account (even though Joe said it is not) anyway? You would be dishing out the same advice regardless, presumably. He isn't even selling anything and if he was why would he have a name called newbietrader, it doesn't inspire confidence.


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## minwa (16 February 2017)

It doesn't matter - I have not called for anyone to not give advice. I simply pointed out what I see. I said in the first post good discussions will result anyway.

Second accounts are easy to make - use different device with use a VPN/library/cafe/work connection. But that's another topic.


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## Trembling Hand (16 February 2017)

A good little post from Dr Brett,
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2017/02/what-in-world-are-you-trading.html

I reckon most Aussies are stuck in the ASX.


----------



## barney (16 February 2017)

I like his final statement .....

*Quote:-  *Purchasing better equipment and doubling down on your "passion for mining" can't help you if you're digging in the wrong places.


----------



## Hocky27 (16 February 2017)

Just wanted to say a quick thank you to everyone that has contributed to this thread. I guess it's all about being in the right place at the right time but having spent the last few weeks lurking through the threads, this is by far the most "approachable" newbie thread I have come across that is still active.

Anyway back to reading and learning.


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## Lone Wolf (16 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> I don't know this guy.
> But I have used for a few years Volume support and Volume resistance.
> Ill have to look at his stuff as I haven't seen what I do for myself taught
> or used by anyone else. The volume Support and or Resistance is based around
> ...




I note TradeGuider seems to be using volume control bars now.

I haven't watched any TradeGuider stuff for a while but I just watched one of their videos. They now make use of what they call "trigger bars" (very high volume bars) and "trigger numbers" (H, L & C of the trigger bar). Looking for a strong break of the trigger bar and/or a test of the trigger bar.

The trigger bar setup is available as an add-on to their software for an additional fee. He says he "invented the term" in his first book, I've never noticed it actively pushed until now though. (probably because they didn't have a trigger bar add-on for purchase until now.)


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## Modest (17 February 2017)

Yeah don't buy Sam Seiden videos or anything like that what I meant was that his free material is a good starting place to learn about basic Supply and Demand concepts relating to financial markets..

Do not pay anyone to 'learn' to trade there is so much free material available online, everything you need is freely available. 

In my earlier post I mentioned Wyckoff as one of the key concepts I use but forgot to mention @motorway an ASF old timer with some fascinating Wyckoff insight. If you have the time I encourage you to read up everything this mystery poster has shared on the topic.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/members/motorway.7360/


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## tech/a (17 February 2017)

Lone Wolf said:


> I note TradeGuider seems to be using volume control bars now.
> 
> I haven't watched any TradeGuider stuff for a while but I just watched one of their videos. They now make use of what they call "trigger bars" (very high volume bars) and "trigger numbers" (H, L & C of the trigger bar). Looking for a strong break of the trigger bar and/or a test of the trigger bar.
> 
> The trigger bar setup is available as an add-on to their software for an additional fee. He says he "invented the term" in his first book, I've never noticed it actively pushed until now though. (probably because they didn't have a trigger bar add-on for purchase until now.)




Hadn't noticed Gavin following me.
The way he uses then and the way I do will be very different
Best I not post about low volume bars you'll see that in the next Tradeguider up grade.


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## Wysiwyg (17 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> Hadn't noticed Gavin following me.
> The way he uses then and the way I do will be very different
> Best I not post about low volume bars you'll see that in the next Tradeguider up grade.



Gee whiz Tech I feel you are on the verge of busting volume and price relationships wide open.


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## tech/a (17 February 2017)

*Let me re phrase that.*



Wysiwyg said:


> Gee whiz Tech I feel you are on the verge of busting *the truth* on volume and price relationships wide open.


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## CanOz (17 February 2017)

"_I note TradeGuider seems to be using volume control bars now.

I haven't watched any TradeGuider stuff for a while but I just watched one of their videos. They now make use of what they call "trigger bars" (very high volume bars) and "trigger numbers" (H, L & C of the trigger bar). Looking for a strong break of the trigger bar and/or a test of the trigger bar._"

I would like to see the analysis of the same intraday futures market with these new trigger bars and any kind of special zone indicator against simple daily volume profiles and a long term composite. I'm sure the conflueneces would be very enlightening and totally unsurprising. Volume is volume, still one of the best  and under utilised leading indicators of all time.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (17 February 2017)

Is this a bearish sign for JB? Probably have no idea what I'm saying but I gotta start somewhere. Could retrace to the $25 - $26 mark?


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## NewbieTrader1982 (17 February 2017)

Seems like a repeat of mid September: and both charts seem to do it at the same level of supply..


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## CanOz (17 February 2017)

NB, that's a gap fill and you could test it with code to see if over historical data a gap fill either resumes or kills the trend. The last bar before the gap may have stops accumulated where longs are to be stopped out and this could trigger a new trend. What I could suggest is either keep a hand ful of these types of plays in a folder and review the price action as it evolves to see if your hypothesis has merit enough to warrant further research or review many charts and keep statistics of this for review. It sure looks like a sell the news event has taken place, earnings related ?


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## NewbieTrader1982 (17 February 2017)

CanOz said:


> NB, that's a gap fill and you could test it with code to see if over historical data a gap fill either resumes or kills the trend. The last bar before the gap may have stops accumulated where longs are to be stopped out and this could trigger a new trend. What I could suggest is either keep a hand ful of these types of plays in a folder and review the price action as it evolves to see if your hypothesis has merit enough to warrant further research or review many charts and keep statistics of this for review. It sure looks like a sell the news event has taken place, earnings related ?




interesting on the 13th (that long red bar) JB reported strong sales and profits. Is that what you mean by a news event? The 'smart money' may be selling on good news to trap the retail buyers? Also you said the last bar before the gap, its a wide spread closing at the top but the volume on that bar is even lower than the one preceding it. Is that the possible trap to get more longs in before selling off?

Also the fact that you can actually test this sh%t, meaning that long bar's historical performance is craaazy to a newbie mind like myself. Cool stuff 

Its like being able to play black/red in the casino but choosing your own odds and limiting the risk side sharply. Very interesting indeed.


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## tech/a (17 February 2017)

*Is that the possible trap to get more longs in before selling off?
*
For get all the conspiracy rubbish no one is trapping anyone.
Not here any way.
Futures/Currencies-- different-- there you do have BIG money.
(Its where T/H plays).

There is a lot more on this chart.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (17 February 2017)

Futures interest me one day. Still gotta play in the kiddie pool


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## CanOz (17 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> *Is that the possible trap to get more longs in before selling off?
> *
> For get all the conspiracy rubbish no one is trapping anyone.
> Not here any way.
> ...




Looked like profit taking if the announcment caused a mark up, whats so "conspiracy theory" about that??


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## tech/a (17 February 2017)

Trap

I read it as some one or entity setting a TRAP on purpose to benifit.
See this sort of post/belief often. Particularly in small caps


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## Wysiwyg (17 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> Trap
> 
> I read it as some one or entity setting a TRAP on purpose to benifit.
> See this sort of post/belief often. Particularly in small caps



With any exuberance bar it amazes me why people (and I have before) buy at extremities. I recall feeling the overwhelming desire to buy into the news or price action. Now these bars can be the start of higher moves so it is one of those grey zones where the next bar could be a scythe or a blessing. Previous support/resistance doesn't stop trends. Not an authority on the subject though.


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## tech/a (17 February 2017)

Love extremities 

Buy high sell higher.
Just got to be able to read it


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## Wysiwyg (17 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> *Let me re phrase that.*






> Gee whiz Tech I feel you are on the verge of busting *the truth* on volume and price relationships wide open.



Truth? That would eliminate more than 50% of trading talk. Kissin azz for your thereabouts truth though.


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## tech/a (17 February 2017)

You'll find it if you look hard enough


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## Wysiwyg (17 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> You'll find it if you look hard enough



Phew. For a moment I thought you were going to cough up the holy grail. Love your work Tech.


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## tech/a (17 February 2017)

That was last week


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## tech/a (18 February 2017)

Another look at JBH


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## barney (18 February 2017)

tech/a said:


> Trap
> 
> I read it as some one or entity setting a TRAP on purpose to benifit.
> See this sort of post/belief often. Particularly in small caps




Understand your point tech ...... I think rather than the word trap, maybe the word 'escape'  might be better suited ....

JBH is not Spec (which are often open to manipulation) so when the 'players' pumped this up on a breakout bar and sold into it heavily, I'd have to assume they were trying to 'create a market' to sell into and lighten their positions.   

Dont know anything about JBH but the news was good (apparently), which gives a perfect opportunity for the price to be pushed higher with less resistance and generate a better exit price for those wanting out.

Doesnt mean it wont bounce off the current lows and go higher of course cause the 'players' may still have a few shares to get rid of

Just my mumblings on a Sat evening after losing our Zone boules match by 1 shot


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## NewbieTrader1982 (26 February 2017)

Update: 
Been studying (quite obsessively) hard VSA from a few sources, of course Tom Williams book included as well as studying hard candlesticks, doing Steve Nisons course. I'm spending upto 4 hours a day on there theory and 4 hours a day on charts to try and identify what im learning. It's truely eye opening. The amount of 'non random' events over and over is staggering. I will keep this up until i feel I'm ready to go live with a strategy in place. 

About to devour some great money/risk management books. Also 2 books by Tharp on mindset. 

All in all its coming together. 

Now i know what @tech/a means when he says look at the low volume bars. 

Consistently you can see buying climax (by insiders), then testing waiting for low volume before taking prices higher etc etc. same thing as selling climaxes by smart money then down thrust ( shooting star) to test demand before crashing prices gradually. 

Also I've come to realise the left part of the chart is KEY to put what's happening in front into perspective and can change the entire meaning of current bars at times. Individual bars and volume is 1 thing but when put into the context of left hand side and then also with larger time frames gives the real significance . At least this is what I'm learning and seems to be evident in these charts as well.

With great risk/money management and staying disciplined I can imagine there is a decent chance at being profitable at some point and being consistent ( my assumption of course). 

Over and out.
​


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## traderxxx (27 February 2017)

newby trader,

(the amount of non random events is stagering)   i know what you mean,

referring to the spi,

the day of the brexit,     the high was 5299, plumetted to 5040,ish. on the same day

the day of the trump election ,   (what was the high),  you gessed it
high was   (5299)    plummeted  to  5029.    on the same day

waiting to see if mondays high is 5725,   if overcome with strenghth
could test the highs again,

low  5673?  could be.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (27 February 2017)

traderxxx said:


> newby trader,
> 
> (the amount of non random events is stagering)   i know what you mean,
> 
> ...




When prices plummeted it would be interesting to see the volume action and then volume/price action the next day or two. I'm certain the 'insiders' would have used the negative news to their advantage.


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## Valued (27 February 2017)

Just be careful with conspiracy theories about "insiders" and maybe not take it too far. There are probably some problems with those theories, especially in the futures markets and in forex. It is not as if volume is irrelevant (it is of course relevant) and it is not as if you don't see whiplash when news comes out but the more liquid markets like forex might be a bit more efficient then perhaps VSA would suggest. In the short term on the hourly you can see obvious inefficiencies in some respects but not on the longer time frame. I remember seeing the EURJPY going up 50 pips or so on Friday (meaning the euro was going up in value against the yen) but at the same time gold was rising, vix was rising, bonds were rising the dax was tanking, all signs of a risk off environment. In that risk off environment the EURJPY should be tanking not going up. It went up a bit, I shorted, and it's been a reasonably profitable position so far that I still am in. Now there are reasons it could have gone up by 50 pips despite that but I saw that it didn't make much sense for this to continue for more than a few hours given how money was flowing into risk off assets and so it was time to short that potential divergence between what the EURJPY was doing and what all other risk off assets were doing (the yen goes up in a risk off environment). Choosing why to go into EURJPY over other pairs though like USDJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY is another added complexity in forex since many pairs may give you exposure to the same underlying theme.


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## NewbieTrader1982 (27 February 2017)

Valued said:


> , I shorted, and it's been a reasonably profitable position so far that I still am in. Now there are reasons it could have gone up by 50 pips despite that but I saw that it didn't make much sense for this to continue for more than a few hours given how money was flowing into risk off assets and so it was time to short that potential divergence between what the EURJPY was doing and what all other risk off assets were doing .




Well done !


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## tech/a (4 March 2017)

*And so it was/is*


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## barney (4 March 2017)

tech/a said:


> *And so it was/is*




Indeed!   ...... The old *"Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact" *...... has to be respected even with Blue-chips.


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## jenisa (14 March 2017)

Great thread..especially for a newbie who is somehow shy of indulging into this world...me!


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