# Can Spain Be Saved?



## Aussiejeff (26 May 2012)

This just in after close of US markets...



> *Bankia Group to Seek EU19 Billion From Government to Restructure
> *
> By Charles Penty - May 26, 2012 5:22 AM GMT+1000
> 
> ...



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-billion-in-state-backing-to-restructure.html

So, a little over a week ago, Spain's Finance Minister is stating categorically that ALL the banks in Spain will require less than 15 billion euros of public funds to bail them out.

Now, a few days later ONE big bank is putting it's hands out for 19 billion euros. One can only imagine what the total cost of Spain's banking bailout might really be....let alone the bailouts for the rest of the economy. 

So, the question is, given the looming scale of this, can Spain be saved?



P.S. I guess we could stop being so selfish and loan them our World's Greatest Treasurer for a year or two? It's only fair...


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## tech/a (26 May 2012)

I was over there this time last year.

Frankly they are stuffed for at least a generation.
Their boom has completely busted.
Friends have 2 beach villa's paid â‚¬390,000
for one and â‚¬279,000 for the other.
They literally cannot sell them at ANY price.
There are similar properties to â‚¬ 60,000 and can't be sold.
There are square mies of buildings half built with cranes and
Materials left on site and people walked away.

Corruption in government was so rife that most properties are not built to any 
Building code. 
The roaring employment of he boom has completely gone
Shopping centers are like big hippos with one or two food shops and 150 vacant shops.
Really un nerving to walk through.

I travelled by Wynabago and saw massive permanent caravan communities.


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## Calliope (26 May 2012)

Piensa mal, y acertarÃ¡s


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## StumpyPhantom (26 May 2012)

This link:

http://spaineconomy.blogspot.com.au/

and the article:

*It's Time to Stop Using Chewing Gum And Chicken Wire In Spain​*
dated 13 May 2012 is compelling reading.

It's made me realise that our focus on how the Greek drama plays out has been misplaced (serious as that is).  

The Spanish banking fiasco, once it gets rolling, will be too big for anybody to stop so there won't be any of the see-sawing pro/anti austerity debate we're seeing about Greece.  And the under-reported problems, combined with a possible panicky run on banks, means that it is operating to its own schedule and may be upon us even before the June 17 elections in Greece.


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## young-gun (26 May 2012)

can spain be saved - probably in the very short term. can spain be stopped - no.


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## Joules MM1 (11 June 2012)

*Spain bank deal may not work, bolder reforms needed: Stiglitz*


By Tiziana Barghini

NEW YORK | Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:17pm EDT



> the bailout would add another 10 percent to Spain's debt-to-gross domestic product ratio, which was already expected to hit nearly 80 percent at the end of 2012, up from 68.5 at the end of 2011. That could make it harder and more expensive for the government to sell bonds to international investors.





> "It's voodoo economics," Stiglitz said in an interview on Friday, before the weekend deal to help Spain and its banks was sealed. "It is not going to work and it's not working."




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...ource=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=56943


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## Calliope (11 June 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> *Spain bank deal may not work, bolder reforms needed: Stiglitz*




Then the pain in Spain is not on the wane?


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## Tyler Durden (11 June 2012)

It seems like even an amateur would know that printing more money is not the answer - so I wonder, why do markets react positively whenever something is 'bailed out'?


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## Julia (11 June 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> It seems like even an amateur would know that printing more money is not the answer - so I wonder, why do markets react positively whenever something is 'bailed out'?



I've wondered the same.  The temporary fix for Spain is just that.  So why is there such a global positive reaction?

"Four Corners" tonight had a pretty candid assessment of all the problems in Europe.
It is absolutely not a reassuring picture.


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## qldfrog (11 June 2012)

Julia said:


> I've wondered the same.  The temporary fix for Spain is just that.  So why is there such a global positive reaction?
> 
> "Four Corners" tonight had a pretty candid assessment of all the problems in Europe.
> It is absolutely not a reassuring picture.




+1
The market is supposed to jump of joy at this news..Why?
And actually wall street is not that happy: 
	

		
			
		

		
	



so I guess there is still hope that market is not 100% dumb...
We will see tomorrow
might be a good time to offload...if you still have something to offload...


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## qldfrog (12 June 2012)

And at 5:30AM today: Down at -0.75%...


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## drsmith (12 June 2012)

Calliope said:


> Then the pain in Spain is not on the wane?



It's still the same, that much is plain. Confidence continues to drain as there is little net gain.


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## Tyler Durden (12 June 2012)

drsmith said:


> It's still the same, that much is plain. Confidence continues to drain as there is little net gain.




I hope in vain, but to the screen my eyes are chained.


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## Calliope (12 June 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> I hope in vain, but to the screen my eyes are chained.




There was an old lady from Spain
Who liked to live in the fast lane
She borrowed so much
To gamble and such
And now it's all gone down the drain.

There was another old lady from Spain - but that's another story!


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## Spongle (25 June 2012)

Spain is the Mecca of electro breakbeat music

It dosent need saving


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## Joules MM1 (29 August 2012)

*Deposit flight from Spanish banks smashes record in July*

 Spain has suffered the worst haemorrhaging of bank deposits since the launch of the euro, losing funds equal to 7pc of GDP in a single month. 


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

9:36PM BST 28 Aug 2012

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rom-Spanish-banks-smashes-record-in-July.html

excerpt



> Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said the deposit loss is â‚¬65bn even when adjusted for the season: “This is highly significant. Deposit outflows are clearly picking up and the balance sheet of the Spanish banking system is contracting.”


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## Joules MM1 (29 August 2012)

....and        ....... with piccies

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-spain-real-pain-may-be-just-beginning



> Up until now, the title of "Spain's scariest chart" belonged to one depicting ......we have a contender for joint ownership of said title - Spain's monthly deposit outflows, which in July hit the highest amount ever, and where the YTD deposit outflow is now the highest on record. One look at the chart below confirms that nobody in Spain got the June 29 Euro summit memo that "Europe is fixed"...


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## Uncle Festivus (14 September 2012)

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- The decline of Spanish housing prices accelerated in the second quarter, posting *the steepest drop on record* as a housing bust undermines the country's fragile banking industry amid weak domestic demand and rising unemployment.

Spanish housing prices fell at a 14.4% annual rate in the second quarter, after declining 12.6% in the first three months of 2012 and 11.2% in the fourth quarter, the country's statistics agency INE said Friday. 

The European recession, which continues to steepen, has already caused the ECB's Mario Draghi to promise to purchase unlimited quantities of bonds with duration of 1-3 years on the secondary market. 

Start buying unlimited quantities of Spanish bonds Mario for bottomless Spanish RE......


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## nulla nulla (14 September 2012)

In the past the English have been buying Spanish villa's for their retirement homes, is now the time for Aussies to start buying Spanish hacienda's?


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## notting (14 September 2012)

Uncle Festivus said:


> MADRID (MarketWatch)
> Start buying unlimited quantities of Spanish bonds Mario for bottomless Spanish RE......





You first have to be a man and say pretty please with sugar on top.


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## Mrmagoo (14 September 2012)

Aussiejeff said:


> This just in after close of US markets...
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-billion-in-state-backing-to-restructure.html
> 
> ...




19 billion is bugger all.

I suppose denying minimum wage by 45 cents and hour will make the companies rich enough to pay it off, lmao !


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## Mrmagoo (14 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> I was over there this time last year.
> 
> Frankly they are stuffed for at least a generation.
> Their boom has completely busted.
> ...




haha. Empty buildings, caravan communities ? Free hand of the market my ass.


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## Uncle Festivus (15 September 2012)

notting said:


> You first have to be a man and say pretty please with sugar on top.




No, no, all is good now, Spain won't need to do an Oliver as the market will come to the party and give them money now.




Hang on, just checked 10Y again - oh dear.......


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## Uncle Festivus (18 September 2012)

About due for another "unlimited" speech followed by absolutely nothing substantial?

Rhetoric it goes down, reality it goes up? Which will win?



> (Reuters) - Ten-year Spanish government bond yields extended their rise on Monday, driven by pressure ahead of this week's auctions and lingering doubts over when, or if, Spain will seek financial aid.
> 
> Spain's request for help is a precondition to the European Central Bank's bond buying program, but the government has been reluctant to do so, especially after funding costs have fallen to more manageable levels.






> (Reuters) - Car sales in Spain fell dramatically in the first two weeks of September following a hike in value-added tax, car retailers association Ganvam said on Monday, the first sign the tax rise is further dampening consumer spending in a weakened economy.
> 
> The number of cars sold *tumbled 27.6 percent year-on-year* to 12,300 units in the first fortnight of the month after the price of the average car rose by 650 euros on Sept. 1, according to Ganvam.
> 
> ...


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## Tyler Durden (2 December 2012)

> FURIOUS Spaniards who say banks cheated them of their savings have taken to the streets demanding that the bailed-out lenders give them their money back.
> 
> "Thieves! Where is our money?" bellowed a crowd of some 1000 protesters, many of them elderly, outside the central bank in Madrid before marching on the offices of Bankia, the ruined finance giant.
> 
> ...




http://www.news.com.au/business/bre...iards-tell-banks/story-e6frfkur-1226528182189


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## Uncle Festivus (22 January 2013)

Spain has been saved?


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## Tyler Durden (26 April 2013)

Doesn't look like things are going to get any better soon...



> Spain's unemployment rate surged past 27 per cent to a new record in the first quarter of 2013, official data showed as a deep recession ravaged the eurozone's fourth-largest economy.
> 
> A record unemployment number also emerged in neighbouring France, the eurozone's second-biggest economy, as the labour ministry said jobseekers in France surged by 36,900 in March to 3.224 million, beating a record set in 1997.
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...ment-tops-27-fresh-record-20130426-2ii06.html


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## YMI (27 April 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> Doesn't look like things are going to get any better soon...



I wonder how they pay their living expenses. Impossible that they’re all on the dole, is it?


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## tech/a (27 April 2013)

YMI said:


> I wonder how they pay their living expenses. Impossible that they’re all on the dole, is it?




Dole?

What dole.
Spain doesn't have a dole system
If your un employed you line up for food
Vouchers.

Aussies don't know how damned lucky they are.
Why do refugees come here?

Go travel a bit and you'll never complain about
You home again.


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## FlyingFox (27 April 2013)

tech/a said:


> Dole?
> 
> What dole.
> Spain doesn't have a dole system
> ...




+1.


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## jancha (27 April 2013)

tech/a said:


> Dole?
> 
> What dole.
> Spain doesn't have a dole system
> ...




Cheers.... I've put in a request to centre link for a pay rise to cover the trip.


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## sval62 (27 April 2013)

tech/a said:


> Dole?
> 
> What dole.
> Spain doesn't have a dole system
> ...




If you are going to comment on a thread can you make sure that your comment 
even closely resembles the true facts.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_benefits_in_Spain


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## McLovin (27 April 2013)

tech/a said:


> Dole?
> 
> What dole.
> Spain doesn't have a dole system
> ...




Err...Spain absolutely does have the dole. You just need to have worked before you can start claiming it and it doesn't continue indefinitely.


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## village idiot (27 April 2013)

and if you couldnt get the dole in Spain you could just move to any of the other EU countries and claim welfare there, Uk is quite popular...


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## DCD (27 April 2013)

jancha said:


> Cheers.... I've put in a request to centre link for a pay rise to cover the trip.




 ...


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## Boggo (27 April 2013)

sval62 said:


> If you are going to comment on a thread can you make sure that your comment
> even closely resembles the true facts.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_benefits_in_Spain




Maybe you should read it again.

In most countries in Europe you must work to earn benefits, the concept of second and third generation dole bludgers who have never worked is a pommy and Aussie phenomenon where natural selection is being defeated by social security.


From the page you link to...

*Requirements*
In order to receive a contributory benefit an employee must have contributed at least 360 days in the last 6 years, be registered with the employment authorities as available for work.
Benefit Amount and duration

As a rule the benefit is paid for 1/3 of the period that the unemployed person has contributed. As a minimum the benefit is paid for 4 months and a maximum of 24 months is permitted.[5] The benefit amount is calculated on the basis of the last 180 days salary with both a minimum and a maximum amount applicable. The base amount is supplemented according to the specific family situation of the unemployed person with a supplement for those with children under 26 or handicapped- The unemployed receive 70% of their reference salary (subject to the ceiling)during the initial 6 months falling to 50% thereafter.


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## YMI (29 April 2013)

Boggo said:


> From the page you link to...
> 
> ... The unemployed receive 70% of their reference salary (subject to the ceiling)during the initial 6 months falling to 50% thereafter.



That's not very clear explained. Sounds like if you have earned anything for a while, then you’ll receive at least 50% of that for the rest of your life (but for example not more than 1087.21 Euro – probably per month – for a single person).

I talked to a friend from Spain and she said whatever they get is up to a maximum of three years and then it’s over. A very difficult situation for affected people but that explains how the system can still function despite the 27% unemployment.


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## clowboy (29 April 2013)

tech/a said:


> Dole?
> 
> What dole.
> Spain doesn't have a dole system
> ...




I can testify to that.....not only are we lucky we are a first world country, we are also a lucky first world country.


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## Aussiejeff (29 April 2013)

clowboy said:


> I can testify to that.....not only are we lucky we are a first world country, *we are also a lucky first world country*.




Agreed......for now.....might be fun to revisit this quote in 10 years time after the Mining Boom has gone bust.

By the same token, where will Spain's economy be by then, one wonders?


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## chops_a_must (29 April 2013)

Aussiejeff said:


> Agreed......for now.....might be fun to revisit this quote in 10 years time after the Mining Boom has gone bust.
> 
> By the same token, where will Spain's economy be by then, one wonders?




Some parts of Spain are going ok.

Areas where they have been smashed by cheap African food, wont come back. But that has been a long term impact throughout Europe.

Regions such as Catalonia and the Basque region where they have much greater exposure to the outside world, will eventually be fine. But they are seriously hampered by being a part of Spain.

However, manufacturing is experiencing a resurgence in the north of Spain, and several big name companies have moved from the Netherlands and Denmark to Spain. Which is also fueling nationalist tensions.

Spanish speaking immigrants are going back to Latin America and elsewhere. Australian universities are experiencing large increases of spanish speaking students.

The biggest problem is that Spain's youngest and brightest are leaving.

They just have to have a different currency. Because they just cannot compete as the high quality food bowl for Northern Europe.

It's forcing them to make massive changes to their education system as well. Formerly, their debates were around teaching regional languages before castillan and vice versa. But now, they know they can't be as insular.

Anyway, from paradise to parados, in a big hurry.

At least the prostitutes are awesome and cheap.


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## Trembling Hand (29 April 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> At least the prostitutes are awesome and cheap.




Haha. LOL.......... Classic


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