# Gold Daytraders



## Uncle Festivus

Thought I'd make a thread specifically for day traders of gold.

Looking for a ascending wedge break out if it goes past 807.50?

Edit - broken out, let's see how strong it is?


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## kransky

been meaning to trade gold futures.. but have not got around to doing much.

trouble is that its scary going either direction.. cos it can get highly manipulated in either direction..

unlike the dow where its very clear the medium term outlook is DOWN

so UF, if it breaks above 807 it may jump much higher you say?


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## explod

Your new thread is a great idea Uncle and I have a question.

I used to buy my gold and silver bars over the counter from Johnson Matthey in Melbourne.   Too far for me to the Perth Mint so does anyone know where I can do this in my home town?

Cheers,   explod


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## Ageo

There should be many gold refineries (bullion houses) in Melb if you do a search. Im not aware of any personally but i did find a number to 1 

http://www.dlook.com.au/business/150672/A-B-C-Australian-Bullion-Company

Ring around thow as the spreads will vary and atm because volatility is high the spreads have increased a fair amount.


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## Uncle Festivus

kransky said:


> been meaning to trade gold futures.. but have not got around to doing much.
> 
> trouble is that its scary going either direction.. cos it can get highly manipulated in either direction..
> 
> unlike the dow where its very clear the medium term outlook is DOWN
> 
> so UF, if it breaks above 807 it may jump much higher you say?




I don't really know, just putting out some ideas of possible short timeframe trades for anyone interested. The current pattern of sharp sell offs followed by slow rebounds is tradeable, right down to the minute if you study the charts ie there are mostly certain times of the day that things happen. If these times line up with chart patterns like wedges ect, bollinger etc then there is a probability of a big move, either way.

It's nothing fancy & I'm sure the established technicians might have a chukle
 but as it's a manipulated market you just have to know which way it's getting manipulated, long or short??

I'll post some time points where things happen when I get time, although you can do this if you have intraday timescale charts.


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## Kauri

explod said:


> Your new thread is a great idea Uncle and I have a question.
> 
> I used to buy my gold and silver bars over the counter from Johnson Matthey in Melbourne. Too far for me to the Perth Mint so does anyone know where I can do this in my home town?
> 
> Cheers, explod




   at your local corner deli soon by the looks of the chart..   

Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Reealjrd

Uncle Festivus said:


> Thought I'd make a thread specifically for day traders of gold.
> 
> Looking for a ascending wedge break out if it goes past 807.50?
> 
> Edit - broken out, let's see how strong it is?




Hello Uncle,
 This is good and will help gold traders.


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## Uncle Festivus

Another ascending wedgy breakup from $790. Arbitrage opportunity with some of the large goldies like NCM as they seem to lag the spot for a good 5 minutes.


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## explod

Kauri said:


> at your local corner deli soon by the looks of the chart..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Maybe.  I think charts are being manipulated anyway.   Corner deli only interested in big mark ups so probably not if what you indicate is correct.


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## barrett

Uncle Festivus said:


> Another ascending wedgy breakup from $790. Arbitrage opportunity with some of the large goldies like NCM as they seem to lag the spot for a good 5 minutes.




Good spotting.. and within that small wedge, by the looks, an inverse H&S.. at the bottom of a large falling wedge.  It all looks rather bullish really, depending on what happens around the upper bound of the big wedge.


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## Uncle Festivus

Yes, see how long before it get's capped 

Looks like $5 support/resistance zones now - having trouble keeping up with it!


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## barrett

Watching EURUSD for potential reversal or breakout here


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## BentRod

Forming a right shoulder now??


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## amory

Kauri said:


> at your local corner deli soon by the looks of the chart..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Not friendly, Kauri!  of all traders, goldbugs are the most egocentric.  but to survive, they have to constantly boost each others optimism.  for them, such a thing as a negative goldstock does not exist.  physical gold ... that is the sacred cow!  you want to never speak up against it, not even in jest.


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## arco

*Day trading with 15m Ichimoku
*

In this case it turned out it extended to leaving the order on overnight, .....and giving a maximum of *+1885*........took *+1005*. 

Looking now for the next opportunity

rgds - arco


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## arco

.
Traded break from Kumo on 15 m chart 

First GOLD day trade of the day.

Took +300 (highest was +405)

anyone trading?

arco


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## arco

.
After a slow start today there now appears to be a rejection and test off the Kumo on the 15M time-frame.

rgds - arco


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## arco

Update - rather a quick move

Exited trade @ 764.45

*+630*

rgds - arco


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## Uncle Festivus

Yes, getting interesting, approaching some support levels again. Nice little waterfall to$758, back long at $762. Similar to NCM to $2030 today. 

Always cognisant of the prevailing negative bias though.

Arco, what charting/trading package are you using, thanks.


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## explod

amory said:


> Not friendly, Kauri!  of all traders, goldbugs are the most egocentric.  but to survive, they have to constantly boost each others optimism.  for them, such a thing as a negative goldstock does not exist.  physical gold ... that is the sacred cow!  you want to never speak up against it, not even in jest.




Both of you are a little off in my view.   Have been away for a few days and rarely trade of late.  Recently diagnosed with cancer and will shortly be under the knife.

As for gold it has been a very good investment for our family.   If you look at the 5 year chart it is very much holding the bottom line of the pennant, and the uptrend, as it has done since 2003.  There is no fundamental reason to tell me that will change.  My health dictates that I can no longer day trade so you have the upper hand, if that is what you enjoy, but for me gold is a safe place for my money.

The US dollar is enjoying the Wall Street/Bloomberg ramp (and that can be backed up, but too much for this short post) and the further it goes up the more spectacular will be the fall and then the rise of gold.

As I have said many times on the main gold thread thread, gold will be held down on the Comex untill the new US Administration have taken over full responsibilities to cop the demise of the world reserve currency, that's the niceties of politics.

And there are indeed negative gold stocks in my view, (and that view is shared by other gold bugs) read the thread properly.


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## arco

Uncle

What you see in the charts is MT4, although I also have Metastock

rgds - arco


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## cuttlefish

explod said:
			
		

> Recently diagnosed with cancer and will shortly be under the knife.




geez explod - that isn't great news in anyone's books - I hope that its the kind that is easily excised and a full recovery ensues - I wish you and your family all strength as you get through this.


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## explod

cuttlefish said:


> geez explod - that isn't great news in anyone's books - I hope that its the kind that is easily excised and a full recovery ensues - I wish you and your family all strength as you get through this.




In retrospect I was out of order bringing this up at all.  But thanks cuttlefish, it is contained within my prostate which will be excised and then no more problems, though recovery is long and not the best.  Have a mentor who at 96 years had his out 35 years ago.  When I was in doubt he hit me on the back and said "no worries, just get it cut out and then back into life as usual"

cheers explod.


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## cuttlefish

no worries - pretty difficult not to mention something like that though - it'd be on your mind a bit!  Good to hear that the prospects of getting through it are good - all the best with it.


I'd return to the topic of gold daytrading at this point but the gold charts are looking miserable for longs - seems largely driven by USD strength which means the AUD gold price is still fairly firm, but overall there appears to be considerable downside risk in the USD gold price short term.  The underpinning of bank accounts by governments has removed a lot of the short term fear that was driving physical gold buying. I still think there's some credit crisis suprises out there to be unleashed yet though and I also can't understand the USD strength except that there is short term demand for US cash as credit unwinds.


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## arco

explod

My best wishes for a speedy and complete recovery

rgds - arco


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## chops_a_must

All the best Explod!


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## IFocus

explod said:


> In retrospect I was out of order bringing this up at all.  But thanks cuttlefish, it is contained within my prostate which will be excised and then no more problems, though recovery is long and not the best.  Have a mentor who at 96 years had his out 35 years ago.  When I was in doubt he hit me on the back and said "no worries, just get it cut out and then back into life as usual"
> 
> cheers explod.




Explode a friend is going in next week for the same op we know a few guys who have come through no worries good luck and speedy recovery


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## MRC & Co

All the best Explod!  

My Grandad had the same operation and came through fine and healthy.


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## barrett

Whoa.. hope everything goes well Explod.. how long is it likely to be before you're back?


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## explod

barrett said:


> Whoa.. hope everything goes well Explod.. how long is it likely to be before you're back?




Do not have an op date yet but should only be away from the screen for 2 or 3 weeks at that time.

Back on topic, hope you are all short gold at the moment.

Thanks sincerely for all the good wishes and support.


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## Reealjrd

Nice data but i would like to remain away from the screen for 3-5 days.


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## Trembling Hand

LOL

Did any one just catch that stop sweep. I had 3 short and didn't know what the hell just happened. $6 bucks in an instant. on 3 GC


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## skyQuake

Holy crap that broke hard. Could be a legit move not a sweep!


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## chops_a_must

skyQuake said:


> Holy crap that broke hard. Could be a legit move not a sweep!



I agree.

The volume on gold the last 2 nights seems to have been rather big.

We're going to see 400 in no time IMO.


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## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Holy crap that broke hard. Could be a legit move not a sweep!




Some big swinging dick drop the biggest sweep i have ever seen. Looked like a 500 contract or more. massive sweep. 

gold bugs take that manipulation in the neck. ::


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## arco

.
Taking a little day trade punt against the main trend .....for a potential journey towards the Kumo (cloud) edge................


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## cuttlefish

Trembling Hand said:


> Some big swinging dick drop the biggest sweep i have ever seen. Looked like a 500 contract or more. massive sweep.




That was probably whiskers adjusting after revising his EW count again.   (1,3,2,5,4 ... oh dang I'll get it right one day).    (sorry whiskers).


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## arco

.
Or it could have been EW adjusting his whiskers


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## arco

Follow up post #36

C'mon *you can do it, nearly there*....................just *push* a bit harder

Swimming against the tide......


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## Uncle Festivus

Hang in there Arco, getting close 

Wedgy happening again. $730 target.


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## MRC & Co

Your target would signal a new higher high, after already forming a higher low, not exactly against the trend......

Perhaps a turnaround in gold fortunes.......then again, gold is completely illiquid in our session right?


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## Uncle Festivus

Failed - short again.


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## arco

Hi MRC.

Yes, if we reach that target.............until then it it just a potential target.

So, until that break occurs its still trading against the trend IMO

L, H. HL, ??

arco


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## MRC & Co

Yeh, just odd having a target pre-empting a HH after an already HL.  Messy area to trade.  Better to target a quicker scalp before the previous high IMHO.  That's if the book confirms.....


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## arco

Hi MRC

Yes, not the best idea I've had this week.....but it will definitely not turn into a loser that's for sure. (SL is above entry)   

I think as a scalp/day trade it was a reasonable punt for a max of circa *+900* before it turned south again

rgds - arco


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## arco

.
Stopped out at a profit.  *+300*


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## MRC & Co

Good work.

On another note, what is the kumo cloud?


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## arco

Hi MRC

Its part of the Ichimoku system

You can find more info here

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page


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## arco

Re post #36/#39

Gold carried on higher eventually to the Kumo(cloud) as originally expected, hitting the grey price zone box I put on the original chart.

I was stopped at +300, but with a wide stop/or a re-entry the maximum gain could have been *2920+*

arco


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## Uncle Festivus

arco said:


> Re post #36/#39
> 
> Gold carried on higher eventually to the Kumo(cloud) as originally expected, hitting the grey price zone box I put on the original chart.
> 
> I was stopped at +300, but with a wide stop/or a re-entry the maximum gain could have been *2920+*
> 
> arco




Good work. So, what next for the clouds - what are they saying?


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## arco

Uncle

I need to review all time-frames to get an better idea, and I
will try to do that sometime over the w/e.

In the meantime if you want to read more about Ichimoku there 
is a  very good reference work here 
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

rgds -arco


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## arco

*The Ichimoku site I mentioned above will apparently be off line over the weekend due to changing their server.*

Anyway its well worth a look when it comes back on.

rgds - arco


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## MRC & Co

lol, the stop would have needed to be pretty wide though!  Not exactly going to work in application.

I already have a style, but thx for the info.  I will keep track of this thread, good to see more daytraders around!  

How long have you been using this method for and is it consistently profitable for you?

Cheers


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## Whiskers

cuttlefish said:


> That was probably whiskers adjusting after revising his EW count again.   (1,3,2,5,4 ... oh dang I'll get it right one day).    (sorry whiskers).






arco said:


> .
> Or it could have been EW adjusting his whiskers




OooK you two! :

Yeah, that's it... just when I get this damn EWiggle thing a bit sighted up someone spots the laser light and they bolt. 

But, I've got them cornered at the pass in the longer run.


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## arco

Hi MRC

Yes my apologies, now I look at the chart more closely that stop would have been too large to comprehend. I posted in a hurry without checking the parameters.....always things to do and places to go on a Saturday 

Method is profitable, but I often use different methods in difference market situations. Its working well at the moment, as you can see from my posted trades.

rgds - arco


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## MRC & Co

Cool, thx arco.

Don't worry Whiskers, I always enjoy reading your contrary view.  Different to the norm.


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## arco

Uncle/All

My quick check for daytrading gold next Monday.

Hope the chart is basically self explanatory.

Kumo (cloud) acts as resistance or support.
Thin Kumo is easier to break than thick Kumo.
Once broken Kumo is often retested for change of polarity.

Chikou Span (Light green line) gives bullish/bearish signals
as it passes through the old plot.

Blue boxes on chart are possible target areas if the recent high
is not broken and there is a re-trace. I'll be trying to trade this 
south if we get a LH/LL.

arco


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## MRC & Co

Good stuff arco, I'll watch with interest.


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## arco

Follow up.................................scalp/day trade
.


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## danielf

Is gold a good buy at 725. went down to 681. Wonder if it is headed for a good rally up


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## arco

.
Max profit was  *+1030*

Stop loss hit 

*+300*............... @ 731.80

GTA - arco


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## arco

.
If we hone down to a 15m chart we can see the problem is thick Kumo(cloud) which is holding up southern bound progress.

Chikou is still south of the plot which is a good sign +TS/KS still x'd


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## arco

.
Still headwind through the cloud - a little blue ahead..........

I've taken 2 new full size positions

*stops now at +500 and +100*

so whatever happens I will be *+900 guaranteed for the day*

GTA - arco


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## arco

.
Stops moved

+900, +400 (and +300 already taken)

Day guaranteed *+1600*


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## arco

Action is now into the blue box from Saturdays chart posting


+1800 taken on lower order, (see chart)

+1100 stop loss on balance (higher order)

+300 on original order



*Guaranteed total for day* *+3200*

.


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## arco

.

Time to relax for moment.......totally flat now *+3200*

The action has broken thru the Kumo on the 15M, and appears to be breaking down thru on the 30M which is very thin at this point. 

I may not trade again today, but if I do it will be on a test of polarity off the Kumo.

arco

.


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## BentRod

Nice trades Arco


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## Uncle Festivus

Your shout Arco .

Just noticed the EUR waterfall coincide with the gold pop down. Looking to have some sort of bounce for both EUR and gold from here - 123.3 & 706??

DXY trying for 88?


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## arco

Need to be trading 24hrs....to get all these moves. 

Another *circa +3000* could have been taken overnight based on the Ichimoku signals.

There could be a little retrace now to test the cloud below. (See new highlighted box area).

I've left all the old boxes in place so you can see where they were from last week.

GTA - arco


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## arco

.
Ah.....back after a nice long walk along the beach.

...........................as mentioned earlier "There could be a little retrace now to test the cloud below. (See new highlighted box area)."

Just got my TP hit for *+450* ...tried to take a snap but it happened so quickly at the end.

The Blue Box on the 1Hour chart is the same Blue Box on the 5m chart and earlier post.

GTA - arco


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## arco

.

We have prior knowledge when Kumo (cloud) change to bearish 25 candles ahead of time.

See the waterfall.........on the 1M chart.

Kumo resistance ahead - as you can see - now can it be broken

The Blue area is still the same Blue Box from all the other charts

arco


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## arco

.
Morning Star off Kumo so just done a little scalp here for *+300 *

arco


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## barrett

Nice work on the trades Arco.. would you see this break as suggesting a possible trend change here?


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## arco

Hi Barrett

Thanks, and good to see you on the thread.

Long way to go before we can confirm a trend change IMO. Certainly a breakout on 1hr and lower time-frames which can be traded cautiously using Ichi rules. 

Action has been struggling at the old support zone from  Sept 08................... 3 attempts @ 747 area so far.

rgds - arco


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## barrett

arco said:


> Hi Barrett
> 
> Thanks, and good to see you on the thread.
> 
> Long way to go before we can confirm a trend change IMO. Certainly a breakout on 1hr and lower time-frames which can be traded cautiously using Ichi rules.
> 
> Action has been struggling at the old support zone from  Sept 08................... 3 attempts @ 747 area so far.
> 
> rgds - arco




Yes - I think the retracement for the trendline break is also right there at 747.. plenty of capping going on.  The gold stocks down 10% last night vs Dow something like 3%, so not the most positive sign...  on the other hand, a beautiful looking head and shoulders bottom formed in gold just over the past week, with heavy buying off the head.  But yes 747 area looking v. important..


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## barrett

Nice Kumo support there on the 1-min, did you scalp that Arco?


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## arco

Hi Barrett

No, I went in for the longer haul - potential test of 747 again


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## kransky

great charts but its way over my head.. what in blazes are you blokes talking about with your kumo and cloud talk? 

are those indicators of sorts? They seem to predict the future like magic


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## arco

Hi Barrett

Yes, that was also a good scalp on 1m - hope you took advantage.

rgds - arco


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## arco

Hi Kransky

You can learn all about it here.....

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

I think the site may be off line at the moment while Manesh (the owner) changes servers. However, also in the meantime heaps of info on Google

rgds - arco


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## arco

Ok, stopped on that one at *+300*   (Post #77)

Will be looking with a view to get back in at some point.

Total for day so far.............................

+1050


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## barrett

arco said:


> Hi Barrett
> 
> Yes, that was also a good scalp on 1m - hope you took advantage.
> 
> rgds - arco




Thanks - not trading atm, just getting familiar with it, but will soon.  It looks like the bounce off 30M Kumo+trendline support earlier would have been a good entry.


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## arco

barrett said:


> Thanks - not trading atm, just getting familiar with it, but will soon.  It looks like the bounce off 30M Kumo+trendline support earlier would have been a good entry.




Yes that was an idea spot, and I did scalp 300 based off that Morning Star (see earlier post), however, it was also possible the action might just venture in the Kumo a little more, so that was the reason to take profits early.

rgds - arco


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## barrett

Thar she blows... 755.  Now for the pullback..


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## arco

.
Stopped out at  *+500* on that move.

Day total


*+1550*

.


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## arco

.

Hi Gold Daytraders.........


Got off to a bad start this morning when an initially profitable trade targeting 300 hit the stop at *minus 200.* before hitting the TP  

Picked up *+55 and +150 * on two scalps for a positive of *+5*

Anyway, things have improved now after a short from 757.05 with a TP of 743.20

so up to now.......................

*+1390*

Heres a chart of the first one that went wrong.......I was expecting a test of the lower Kumo after a Dark Cloud Cover at Resistance of an old Kumo high area convincingly repelled the action. (The SL was changed to 200 after things started to look a bit dodgy).



rgds - arco


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## arco

G'day All

Whats happened to all the Gold day-traders - cat got yer tongue 

All Ichimoku signals were green for GO including Kumo (cloud) break on 30m.......so off and running.

GTA - arco


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## arco

A very nice day.......(so far).

Closed the position off at *+2100*

was looking to get out at 728.50, but I'm happy with the profit

GTA - arco


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## arco

For forum members that asked about Ichi rules, it appears the IchiWiki website is up again

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

rgds - arco


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## kransky

thanks arco


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## Reealjrd

Today Gold is looking good for day trading.


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## arco

.
First trade of a new week on the rejection off bearish Kumo

*+200 locked in currently*

GTA - arco

.


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## arco

Update.

*.
+400 locked in now and trailing*

rgds - arco


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## arco

*Update.*

Gold short position closed *+ 1000*

That will do nicely thanks 

arco


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## CanOz

Arco, maybe you post some postion sizing and inital stop information too. I would be interested in that. I like the Ichimoku threads and i'm following them closely, very interesting.

Thanks,

CanOz


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## arco

Hello CanOz

I risk MAX 2% of my capital for any trade.

You can usually see the initial stop on the first chart

T_he Ichiwiki gives stop positioning ideas, but RR is a very personal thing._

Regards - arco


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## arco

.
There was no signal on Gold before I closed up the office, but *Silver* gave a signal on the 15M.

I left the order without a TP but being in the Land of Nod I missed the opportunity to grab a decent profit circa +600 near the high of 10.532 (entry 9.892). Anyway current profit *+265*

SL is above entry, so I be monitoring closely to see how it performs.

GTA -  arco


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## arco

.
Silver currently +348

I've moved my stop to *+200*


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## arco

Silver


Closed  position @ *+ 323*


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## Ageo

Arco seems like you will be a millionaire in no time!


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## kransky

arco, dont think your being ignored... i'm keen to see your posts and learn your entry and exit points using these jap signals!


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## BentRod

Had a short triggered in Gold tonight, first one in ages.

Short from the yellow arrow @  734. 

Stop at 739.50.


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## BentRod

Stop to BE.


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## arco

Yes, same here.

Placed the order before I shut up the office.
(Took the pic shortly after placing the trade)

Amazed to see its already hit the TP (719.15)

*+1200*

Didnt quite expect such a large o/n fall.

rgds - arco


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## Uncle Festivus

Flying blind a bit without charts, but looking for a bounce from $710, so trying a long now with a tight stop. Hows the ichi's look?


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## arco

Uncle Festivus said:


> Flying blind a bit without charts, but looking for a bounce from $710, so trying a long now with a tight stop. Hows the ichi's look?




Uncle

5m+ time-frames are not north of the Kumo yet (although some are in zero visibility - inside the Kumo)....but theres no confirmed long signals in Ichi-land just yet..........maybe just around the corner..........watchings clouds  

arco


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## Uncle Festivus

We've got $5 so far but strong resistance @$715 all morning - 3 times tried & failed - but looking like a break out wedge through 715 forming now, any minute perhaps


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## BentRod

> Short from the yellow arrow @ 734.




Took half at 714 (blue arrow)

Moved stop to 726 on the rest.

PS..nice trade Arco


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## BentRod

Out @ 726.


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## Uncle Festivus

Got another wedgy happening scalpers 

Break up or down, support around 720 if down?

Strong comeback to 740 earlier from the knockdown attempt to break it down past 700.


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## acouch

some interest..

http://arabianmoney.net/

ac


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## barrett

Gapping up out of a fairly tight wedge here.. looks interesting!


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## BentRod

yep nice break, hope your on it Barrett


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## barrett

BentRod said:


> yep nice break, hope your on it Barrett




would like to be but I'm waiting on a pullback.  I really think I need to change from Alpari, the data are just so full of gaps that don't exist with other providers - and the volume is different to say, Norths. 

Anyway.. the gold stocks are up 13% while Dow down 1%.. can't find anything in the news that would trigger this other than the usual BS "wary investors returned to safe haven buying.." haha that's a good one


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## BentRod

> would like to be but I'm waiting on a pullback. I really think I need to change from Alpari, the data are just so full of gaps that don't exist with other providers - and the volume is different to say, Norths.




Yeah might make a nice short if it pops backs through.

Regarding the data, I only have gaps on 1m chart.(alpari Russia)


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## Sean K

I thought breaking $775 ish was important longer term. Nice move. 

In regard to gold stocks, it's been amazing the way they've tended to move before POG recently. LGL and NCM led gold all the way down, and yesterday both up 10% or something while POG did nada. Then tonight....whoosh... tapping on $800 as I type.


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## georgey

Hi Kennas
Many stocks rose yesterday, banks etc. so seemed to be widespread
buying. Perhaps gold stocks still have their major move to come 
Monday if gold stays around 800.
Georgey


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## sinner

georgey said:


> Hi Kennas
> Many stocks rose yesterday, banks etc. so seemed to be widespread
> buying. Perhaps gold stocks still have their major move to come
> Monday if gold stays around 800.
> Georgey




Having stayed up all night watching the markets I can confirm for you that POG was rocketing up for the entire evening, while European markets continued their slump! The poor opening to the US markets barely made a dent in the breakout either...not just a matter of staying with the index!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

barrett said:


> Gapping up out of a fairly tight wedge here.. looks interesting!




Gotta love those wedgies eh - a pretty reliable indicator for gold these few months.



kennas said:


> I thought breaking $775 ish was important longer term. Nice move.
> 
> In regard to gold stocks, it's been amazing the way they've tended to move before POG recently. LGL and NCM led gold all the way down, and yesterday both up 10% or something while POG did nada. Then tonight....whoosh... tapping on $800 as I type.




I think if you are a big player in gold and plan to move on the futures you would also set yourself up for a move on equities as well. The last hrs trading on NCM was saying someone wanted to get on board fast? If this one has legs then NCM _should_ finish close to the highs on Monday?

I think the longer trading view is that the DEC futures are about to explode due to delivery being exercised?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

OK, I'll have a go at it - long at $770?


----------



## wayneL

Guys can I make a suggestion?

When quoting price levels, it would be a good idea to name what cold instrument we are refering to. Some of us trade futures and some CFDs.

So let's just say someing like $800 on Feb gold, which would make it clear it's a future and which contract; or $800 on spot gold, which will make it clear it's a CFD.

Just to avoid confusion. 

Cheers


----------



## BentRod

Short XAU/USD from 877 with a stop above Todays highs @ 889.



4 hour chart.


----------



## BentRod

Stop to 877.


----------



## arco

Nice move BR.

I mentioned this potential short on sharetrader recently.

Weekly chart also looks interesting with Kumo looking resistant, and Chikou
finding it hard to penetrate the prior PA.

rgds - arco


----------



## arco

.

Heres the H1 chart - PA currently making LHs and LLs


.


----------



## BentRod

I've been stopped out of this one Arco.

All the best if your on it, looks good for a run either way it breaks IMO.


----------



## arco

Hi BR

Still basically on holiday, so not trading again until after the weekend......
There will be better set ups next week.

That was a big gap up in Gold, (which appeared while I was out shopping trying to prop up the economy)


----------



## BentRod

Can't help myself, looks over done.

Short XAU/USD from 862 with a $2 stop.


----------



## MRC & Co

Looks like a good entry Bent.  Keep us updated on how it pans out.


----------



## BentRod

> Looks like a good entry Bent. Keep us updated on how it pans out.




Thanks bud.

Will see what happens when US comes online.

Added more @ 854, stops to BE on both positions. (bout to get done on second lot as I type)


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, the pattern looked very weak, good work on the first entry, banked some nice profit there already!  

Pyramiding in is always hard unless the market is trending well (adding more on pullbacks perhaps).  Otherwise, has to be done very quickly and very aggressively IMO.


----------



## BentRod

Surprised to see I am still in this one, thought I would have been stopped out Today.

Still favour a move down, just need to stay out the noise.
Might move my stop down a bit shortly to lock in 1R.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, I would take more than 1R on that one.  Maybe just above 57s.....


----------



## BentRod

> Yeh, I would take more than 1R on that one. Maybe just above 57s.....




Whereabouts, on the first spike up after I got stopped on the second trade?


----------



## MRC & Co

BentRod said:


> Whereabouts, on the first spike up after I got stopped on the second trade?




Na, just above $857, slightly above the most recent pivot high (this is just over $856, but I would go a little higher encase of a false break).


----------



## BentRod

Thanks mate.

Generally my approach is a low win rate with high multiple R .

I Get stopped out at breakeven a lot of times but the ones I get right usually make up for it.


----------



## peter2

Surprising quick spike up to 859 (0830 GMT) just to see if you have moved your stop down Bentrod. The market knows where your stops are.


----------



## BentRod

I don't know about surprising, I find spikes like that are a regular occurrence in gold.

Either way, came within a bees d!ck Pete, still in.


----------



## BentRod

> still in.




err..that second spike got me though.:

Out @ 860.30


----------



## Uncle Festivus

This is my current set up for spot - getting a bit predictable? Though it's never easy!

Gold likes to consolidate over long timespans, so maybe this could be the start of another upleg, although traditional seasonal factors would normally mean a weak period. All that doesn't mean much when paper money looks to be on it's last legs? See if $850 support holds, again?


----------



## MRC & Co

peter2 said:


> Surprising quick spike up to 859 (0830 GMT) just to see if you have moved your stop down Bentrod. The market knows where your stops are.




That's why I would have trailed the stop tigher.  Time good entries, and it's easy to take small profits.  If it runs your way quick enough and continues to look weak, you can loosen them up a bit more.  Until then though, rather take small profits with small stops, as opposed to just moving to BE.


----------



## BentRod

Might be Setting up for a push down on the Hourlies:


----------



## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> Might be Setting up for a push down on the Hourlies:




I'm tending to agree rod.

My sometimes dubious EW suggests a target of 865 - 880 for 4 of minor wave 1 on the hourly (below) before going on to complete 5, for minor wave 1 of 3 up on the daily ... and what appears your reasonable H&S  also supposts these targets.


----------



## Whiskers

Delete please mod. Double post.


----------



## MRC & Co

Good to see you still around and posting Whiskers, you seemed to disappear for a while there!


----------



## Whiskers

MRC & Co said:


> Good to see you still around and posting Whiskers, you seemed to disappear for a while there!




Yeah, spent a bit more time socialising etc over the break as well as putting a lot of work into getting ready to venture into forex. Thought I may as well trade it since I was watching it anyway for clues to gold and shares.


----------



## BentRod

> My sometimes dubious EW suggests a target of 865 - 880 for 4 of minor wave 1 on the hourly (below) before going on to complete 5, for minor wave 1 of 3 up on the daily ... and what appears your reasonable H&S also supposts these targets.




Howdy Whiskers.

Yeah looks as though it may go lower, won't know until NY comes online though.

I'm looking to add a few, any excuse will do.....looks like a channel might me forming on the 5m chart


All the best.


----------



## BentRod

Plodding along......not the impulsing I was expecting


----------



## arco

.

Good day trading environment over the last few days.
Another blast overnight.


----------



## arco

Anyone still day trading gold? 

Many good short term opportunities still to be found - 4 on this chart

There was a nice short last night from Evening Star on parallel channel  line, followed by a long off a Bullish Engulf off lower channel line.

Earlier there were also trades from the Bear Engulf short followed by Morning Star long

arco


----------



## arco

.
Many golden opportunities for day-trading just in this one Ichimiku chart. All the elements including a Piercing Pattern on Kijun Sen support after Morning Star (which also doubled as/confirmed support zone).

GTA - arco


----------



## arco

Silver can be traded similarly (overnight trade)

GTA - arco


----------



## arco

.
For anyone interested here are the Ichimoku elements


----------



## Whiskers

arco said:


> .
> For anyone interested here are the Ichimoku elements




Atm, I'm a bit divided as to whether gold has finished this correction or whether wave C is still underway. 

I expect the next couple of days will give me a clearer picture... but I'm not sure how much weight to put on the USDCHF or what signal your chart is suggesting.

Could you eloberate a little, arco?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

You guys still trading Gold? 

Seems fairly similar to Crude to trade, some good opportunities for day traders imo, if you're prepared for the hours, hours leading up to US open can be good too. 

Would be good to get some discussion going again, clean out the cobwebs  

Here is a % relative strength chart of Gold vs Crude, its nothing too long term, goes back to mid February I think.

They seem to have about the same value in their daily ranges, Crude is about $1.50 average range, that's the whole day from 12 till 12. Whilst Gold is about $16.50, Gold moving in 0.10 increments whilst Crude moves in 0.01, so they are pretty similar.

Anyone had a look at the differences between the likes of the ES and Gold/Crude?

I've attached the same chart but its between Gold and the ES, pretty interesting, again this only goes back to mid-late February.

Might not be of much use, but something to look at


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I have a simple rule for day-trading gold - if the London close is higher than the open then short on close, then if NY close is lower than open then buy NY close? Anyone able to back test this?

The theory is that a more 'natural' market is present in the Euro time zone whereas there is some, ahem, 'price suppression' in the New York session, by the dastardly bullion banks , but over time it has a higher proportion of winning trades?


----------



## Trembling Hand

I can run it for you lata, or maybe tomorrow.

But the pattern you are thinking about is not anything unusual. Just about all commodities, FX & indexes display a day/overnight move back to fill prior session, even in strong trending periods. 

Nothing new there. Of course conspiracy _______ [insert flattering or non flattering name here] will always see what they want to.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> I can run it for you lata, or maybe tomorrow.
> 
> But the pattern you are thinking about is not anything unusual. Just about all commodities, FX & indexes display a day/overnight move back to fill prior session, even in strong trending periods.
> 
> Nothing new there. Of course conspiracy _______ [insert flattering or non flattering name here] will always see what they want to.




Doesn't need to be a 'conspiracy' - all within the rules apparently, just shows up more in some markets than others. It's common to see waterfall selloffs in the US market trading hours so go with those that know......



> Silver investors have argued that a handful of U.S. banks have been controlling a large portion of silver's short positions -- or bets that prices will decline -- on Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Official data from the CFTC showed that two U.S. banks had increased short positions in the silver futures market between July and August by 450% and controlled 25% of the total open interest.




The squeaky wheel gets some oil........nearly....?

http://www.capitolconnection.net/capcon/cftc/032510/cftc-archive-wmv.htm

Below not checked for accuracy, but the 2 banks mentioned are the culprits?



> According to data recently released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a division of the US Treasury, of the $135 billion of gold derivatives contracts (including futures and options) controlled by financial institutions, JP Morgan controls $96 billion (71.11%) of these contracts and HSBC Bank USA controls $34.4 billion (25.48%) of these contracts. In other words, just two players control almost all gold derivatives contracts in the entire United States.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Doesn't need to be a 'conspiracy' - all within the rules apparently, just shows up more in some markets than others. It's common to see waterfall selloffs in the US market trading hours so go with those that know......
> 
> 
> 
> The squeaky wheel gets some oil........nearly....?
> 
> http://www.capitolconnection.net/capcon/cftc/032510/cftc-archive-wmv.htm
> 
> Below not checked for accuracy, but the 2 banks mentioned are the culprits?




The data doesn't show that at all. Top 4 holders are net long 15% of OI while the top 4 shorts are 35% of OI. Boring nothing in it.

And just a lesson on futures 101. If your "two players control almost all gold derivatives contracts " their total OI must add up to 200%.

But never mind don't let a fact get in the way of a bugs conspiracy.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> Doesn't need to be a 'conspiracy'




I thought just about everything was a conspiracy for you UF! It's actually a shock to see you post about trading!


----------



## Whiskers

>Apocalypto< said:


> I thought just about everything was a conspiracy for you UF!




He's a devils advocate.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Can you tell me, without laughing, that markets are not manipulated, especially one as small as gold?

If anyone can tell me how much gold the USA has (for the last 5 years) then there is no conspiracy/manipulation in the gold markets?

Or, is there a massive short position in silver, by a single entity, or not?

Views can be proferred but I can't see how it prevents positions being entered either way?

Anyway, the thread is about daytrading, the waterfalls in US time are tradable......hows the backtesting going TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Anyway, the thread is about daytrading, the waterfalls in US time are tradable......hows the backtesting going TH?




Just before I have a look. What do you define as London open/close time and same for NY?


----------



## professor_frink

Have moved a few posts from here into the "Gold Price - Where is it heading thread".

Lets try and keep the discussion about daytrading gold, and not about conspiracies, etc.

Cheers


----------



## arco

Hi All

I put a free trade alert on the blog last week which gave a good run.
$22 move = $2200 on one full contract.







Keep in touch for the free stuff on the blog

Best wishes - Arco


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gold & that other manipulated precious is holding up surprisingly strong today.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Gold & that other manipulated precious is holding up surprisingly strong today.




Looks like its time for some catch up


----------



## rensionurne

Did we ever find out of the GST is charged on the whole coin, or only on the amount that isnt gold i.e. the 2k worth of copper or whatever?


----------



## Bron Suchecki

See http://law.ato.gov.au/pdf/pbr/gstr2003-010.pdf for the rules on GST and precious metals.

If the item is internationally traded with a recognised mark and purity >= 99.5% then the whole value it is input taxed (0% GST) otherwise 10% GST applies on the whole value.


----------



## Joules MM1

thanks, Uncle

giving this a trial run......i guess most people can do this ...

the background set-up is that silver has made a 1:1 ratio low and gold made an hourly dbl bottom while hitting a daily ratio so both actually are hinting that they are in set-up mode to reverse upwards......butt he thing is they are  both in no-mans land in terms of price extremes and money mangers are only nibbling at long side and commercials are less than aggressively selling in mid stream, they would rather sell strength....so that brings us into the diary and few people are around, thus the basis of todays trade

i had clipped a bunch of jpegs but its really pedestrian so a quick trial for video.....and maybe a few others may want to give it a go too......you'd be amazed what you see later in a moving diary...

mister C, your thoughts on this?


----------



## Joules MM1

ok, so jpegs are sometimes quickeeeeeeeerrrrrrrr






Joules MM1 said:


> i had clipped a bunch of jpegs but its really pedestrian so a quick trial for video




letting the balance run....


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> ok, so jpegs are sometimes quickeeeeeeeerrrrrrrr
> 
> View attachment 50106
> 
> 
> 
> 
> letting the balance run....




Nice work mate...I sometimes use ratios if we are at new highs and have no recent volume to use for a profile. 

Well done. Nice Christmas trade!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Nice work mate...I sometimes use ratios if we are at new highs and have no recent volume to use for a profile.
> 
> Well done. Nice Christmas trade!
> 
> CanOz






gap down in futes hitting 56 target.....waiting for 9.30am wed aest to see if the buy to close gets taken



data Finviz.com

----------------------------------



			
				Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Elite performers operate with strong intrinsic motivation, that is, they focus on process goals rather than outcome goals. Set a personal goal for 2013 that you will simply follow the process of executing your strategy, rather than being concerned about the end outcome.



https://www.facebook.com/thechartist/posts/10151376509525390


----------



## Joules MM1

echo echo echo......

sell to open spot 1656


----------



## CanOz

> Elite performers operate with strong intrinsic motivation, that is, they focus on process goals rather than outcome goals. Set a personal goal for 2013 that you will simply follow the process of executing your strategy, rather than being concerned about the end outcome...Nick Radge.




Gold...


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Gold...
> 
> 
> CanOz




as a matter of interest,  i sent a private message to Timsk over at Trade2Win to contact Nick and he did.....a nice suprise....and Nick put up a cupla (imho and ime) stella posts as a guest contributer ......you know i seriously thought people would pounce on the posts to get more info, but, no!

..... lead a horse to water


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> as a matter of interest,  i sent a private message to Timsk over at Trade2Win to contact Nick and he did.....a nice suprise....and Nick put up a cupla (imho and ime) stella posts as a guest contributer ......you know i seriously thought people would pounce on the posts to get more info, but, no!
> 
> ..... lead a horse to water




Skeptics abound.....

truly though...you've got to try and stick with what has worked, esp after forward testing as well. 2 years for most TF EOD systems...

CanOz


----------



## harreymartin

value on Tuesday, and that value has not changed from one day to the next.  We can now make an educated guess that we can buy at the lows and sell at the highs of the previous trading range because the range of value has not changed.
Second, the big-round-number is going to keep us contained today around this 1700.00 area.  Very sloppy around these big-round-numbers for gold these days as traders use them as psychological levels of support and resistance.


----------



## CanOz

Will post my short term gold charts here from now on...


----------



## CanOz

The market is behaving like its TOO SHORT....waiting to see if we can retrace to 1389, above that we could see a massive short cover scramble...

Shorts right now are messy, lots of covering.

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Shorts are winning.....


----------



## drillinto

BIG: A Double Bottom For Gold ?
May 20, 2013 

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/5/20/a-double-bottom-for-gold.html
***


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Gold Daytraders - Stop Run Strategy*

Here are yest results on the stop run strategy with my new connection. Will continue to test on sim before trying live...CL needs work on the money management....5 ticks profit not 10.

CanOz


----------



## Ann

*Re: Gold Daytraders - Stop Run Strategy*



CanOz said:


> Here are yest results on the stop run strategy with my new connection. Will continue to test on sim before trying live...CL needs work on the money management....5 ticks profit not 10.
> 
> CanOz





Does my guestimation of a top for the POG of $1414 fit with your calcs?


----------



## CanOz

Really got smacked around last night with slippage on five of my stop run entries. I can't see how this is realistically possible with live stop orders in the market, but we'll be testing it today with 2 cars live this evening. Now i just need to be patient and wait for volume and volatility. Slippage should be positive, or rare.

Here's the results from yesterdays Sim.

On a positive note, the new ISP seems to hold up until about 730 pm and it disconnects, then reconnects.

So far its maintaining a b+ quality connection where the previous one degraded to a C after dinner.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> On a positive note, the new ISP seems to hold up until about 730 pm and it disconnects, then reconnects.




I realise you're having ISP problems CanOz but if TWS if disconnecting at the same time each day then it would pay to check what time the auto logoff is set to in the global configuration. ( You've probably checked it but thought I'd mention it in case you may haave overlooked it)


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> I realise you're having ISP problems CanOz but if TWS if disconnecting at the same time each day then it would pay to check what time the auto logoff is set to in the global configuration. ( You've probably checked it but thought I'd mention it in case you may haave overlooked it)




lol  thanks Captain...i wish it had only been that. Actually TWS is ok, it disconnects every day at noon here, and reconnects fine. They swap servers and they say there is nothing they can do about it, that's cool.

It was AMP / CQG that was poor. It was disconnecting from the NT server, presumably in Denver. So i swapped ISPs and went to a 20 mb line. The quality is better and speed is much better, although that's not some thing i always notice, more so the quality and connectivity.

Anyway, so far so good, fingers and toes crossed.

CanOz


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> lol  thanks Captain...i wish it had only been that. Actually TWS is ok, it disconnects every day at noon here, and reconnects fine. They swap servers and they say there is nothing they can do about it, that's cool.




I figured you'd have it sorted but I've seen posts in the past about the auto logoff with TWS and thought I'd mention it just in case 



CanOz said:


> It was AMP / CQG that was poor. It was disconnecting from the NT server, presumably in Denver. So i swapped ISPs and went to a 20 mb line. The quality is better and speed is much better, although that's not some thing i always notice, more so the quality and connectivity.
> 
> Anyway, so far so good, fingers and toes crossed.




Yep, a reliable service is paramount for trading. (Without getting into a political discussion), I'm focusing on towns with NBN fibre already installed for our move to Tassie, the copper network is too unreliable in a lot of places. NBN fibre with NextG as a backup is our plan. Currently have ADSL 2 with NextG backup where I am at the moment but we have fairly corroded copper here so it drops out if we get strong wind or rain. A router with an auto switchover to NextG helps 

A good ISP helps too. I've tried most of them out and keep coming back to Internode.


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> I figured you'd have it sorted but I've seen posts in the past about the auto logoff with TWS and thought I'd mention it just in case
> 
> 
> 
> Yep, a reliable service is paramount for trading. (Without getting into a political discussion), I'm focusing on towns with NBN fibre already installed for our move to Tassie, the copper network is too unreliable in a lot of places. NBN fibre with NextG as a backup is our plan. Currently have ADSL 2 with NextG backup where I am at the moment but we have fairly corroded copper here so it drops out if we get strong wind or rain. A router with an auto switchover to NextG helps
> 
> A good ISP helps too. I've tried most of them out and keep coming back to Internode.




Still trading the Kospi Cap? I like that market too, but ya just can't beat Crude and Gold for opportunity (liquidity + volatility).

Now, back to figuring out the best way to capitalize on that...

CanOz


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Still trading the Kospi Cap? I like that market too, but ya just can't beat Crude and Gold for opportunity (liquidity + volatility).
> 
> Now, back to figuring out the best way to capitalize on that...




Yeh, still day trading the Kospi. The VSA indicators I've developed in Amibroker work well on the Kospi and the Dax. It took a lot of testing a few years ago to get to the stage where I had a positive expectancy with a few reliable setups and while I've looked at other contracts to trade I like to focus on getting one thing right before spreading myself too thin.

I have mechanical systems on the ASX that I've traded for over 10 years and still trade today that gave me the foundation to move onto more discretionary futures trading. At the moment the ASX systems are providing good capital growth and the index futures are paying the bills as well as providing extra capital into the ASX systems. I'm more or less happily retired now so will probably focus more on longer term systems on the ASX and the US rather than adding more day trading. Part of the reason for the move to Tassie is to spend more time out bushwalking and paddling and less time in front of a screen.


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Yeh, still day trading the Kospi. The VSA indicators I've developed in Amibroker work well on the Kospi and the Dax. It took a lot of testing a few years ago to get to the stage where I had a positive expectancy with a few reliable setups and while I've looked at other contracts to trade I like to focus on getting one thing right before spreading myself too thin.
> 
> I have mechanical systems on the ASX that I've traded for over 10 years and still trade today that gave me the foundation to move onto more discretionary futures trading. At the moment the ASX systems are providing good capital growth and the index futures are paying the bills as well as providing extra capital into the ASX systems. I'm more or less happily retired now so will probably focus more on longer term systems on the ASX and the US rather than adding more day trading. Part of the reason for the move to Tassie is to spend more time out bushwalking and paddling and less time in front of a screen.




Yeah that's my plan as well. I'm just focusing on GC and CL now, with a view to moving back to Canada likely. I just want to grow my small intra-day accounts into something that we can ay the bills with.

Well done Captain, you should serve as an example for us all.

Just had a nice little 'pop' on GC just then!

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Now thats a sweep! 80-88 in seconds


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Interesting........will it be a woody or a waterfall?


----------



## CanOz

Go with the gut feel and then do the opposite"..lol

One thing for sure is that when it happens outside of pit hours it moves quickly!

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like a woody then  Good enough in this climate?


----------



## drillinto

Gold Back Above 50-Day Moving Average
July 23, 2013 

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/7/23/gold-back-above-50-day-moving-average.html


----------



## drillinto

>>> Who’s Been Buying Gold ? Russia And Turkey Increase Reserves And So, Probably, Does China
>>> 14 Feb 2014


Gold has been in the spotlight more than usual this week as the price breached US$1,300 an ounce for the first time since November of 2013.

Not a bad time then for the World Gold Council to put out its latest report on the official gold holdings of central banks.

The most dramatic figures came from Turkey. Turkey’s central bank added more than 160 tonnes of gold to reserves over 2013, including up to 33.1 tonnes in a single month.

The upper limit for gold reserves that might be held to maintain Turkish lira reserve requirements was raised from 25 per cent to 30 per cent.

Meanwhile, Russia reported a net accumulation of gold during the period as well. That was which was mostly due to purchases within the domestic market. Over the course of 2013, Russia added 77.4 tonnes to its reserves which already stand as the second largest in the world at 12,500 tonnes.

In fact, Russia’s gold production has been on the rise since 2009 when domestic production came in at 185 metric tonnes. Over the following three years production increased to 202 tonnes, 211 tonnes, and 226 tonnes respectively.

Based on available figures through September, 2013 production is estimated to have reached the highest level yet at 237 tonnes.

Russia is the fourth largest gold producer in the world, since overtaking South Africa in 2012, and pundits have predicted it may surpass the United States which currently holds the third position, but which is experiencing declining production in Nevada.

Elsewhere, western central banks continued to sell gold as part of the third Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA3) which covers the gold sales of the Eurosystem central banks, Sweden and Switzerland.

Similar to previous agreements, CBGA3 covers a five-year period, in this case from 27 September 2009 to 26 September 2014, and sets a ceiling on the amount of gold which can be sold. For this third agreement, the collective ceiling was reduced so that annual sales will not exceed 400 tonnes and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tonnes.

While the ceiling was reduced from previous agreements, data from the World Gold Council indicates that the participating states continued significantly to undersell.

The largest number recorded during the agreement period has been 136.2 tonnes in the 2009/2010 period, but last year’s sales came in at only 5.1 tonnes.

During the current period, which began in September of 2013 and ends in September of this year, 3.5 tonnes have been sold so far by the CBGA countries.

What the Chinese are up to is less clear. China’s gold reserves are officially stated as 1,054 tonnes, but that number has not been updated since 2009, leaving industry watchers to analyze total inflow, production, and outflow themselves to get a general read on the Chinese central bank’s policies.

Rumors of massive purchases abound as many in the sector believe that the Chinese government is seeking to diversify its holdings out of US dollars. Officially, gold makes up less than one per cent of the country’s reserve holdings which is well below the 70 per cent stated by the United States.

It has been widely reported that China’s official 2013 gold figures indicate that domestic production and imports vastly outstrip domestic demand.

Given that a 500 tonne gap exists between those two figures, many in the sector point out that such a high level of demand from an unknown party must be the work of the central bank.

Source >> www.minesite.com
*****


----------



## drillinto

>>> Gold Above Its 200 DMA <<<
>>> Feb 14, 2014 

Source >>> http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/2/14/gold-above-its-200-dma.html
*****


----------



## goldtrader23

Just a quick question. Where do you guys day trade?

Been day trading for 5 years through CMC and looking around


----------



## PipSafe

Gold  from the top price of 1392.716 till now was in a downtrend that Sellers were able to achieve the lowest price of 1268.477.As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Support Level of 1277.658  and has created the hammer candlestick pattern. Formation of the lower long shadow(Hammer Pattern) in the last week candle shows the failure of Sellers in reaching to the lower prices. Closing of the bullish candle after this pattern will confirm it and warns about ascending of price.

Right now price is above 5-day moving Monthly and daily time frames that show an uptrend during the next candles.Currently the first warning for increasing of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1306.402. Stoch indicator in weekly time frames in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price(also monthly) during the next candles. Generally until the bottom price of 1268.477 is preserved, price will have the potential for ascending and reformation.


----------



## PipSafe

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Gold dated 2014.06.10, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1333.332 and the price is above 5-day moving. Currently in long term time frames such as monthly and weekly price is above 5-day moving average that shows a consistent uptrend in long period of time and there is not any clear reason about descending of price in these time frames.

According to the formed movements, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 50 and 200 between the bottom price of 1240.549 and the top price of 1333.332 that warns changing price direction from D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and in divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current top price and warns about more descends. Generally according to the current situation in 4H time frame until the top price of 1333.332 is preserved, price will have the potential of descending but according to the potential of ascending in long period of time, the descending of price is temporary and unstable.


----------



## PipSafe

Technical analysis of Gold dated 29.12.2014

Price since the end of 2011 till now was in strong and consistent downtrend with a little price reformation and sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1131.335.Price has formed a bottom price(Spinning Top Pattern) with reaching to the specified supportive levels(Up Trendline and d point of harmonic pattern) in the picture below and it has stopped from more descend and has started a little ascend with shows exit of some sellers from their trades.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 1131.335 and the top price of 1389.947 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator in Monthly time frame (also in daily time frame) is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles.Generally until the third point of Up Trendline is preserved, the price has the potential for ascend and reformation in this Metal.


----------



## PipSafe

Technical analysis of Gold dated 13.02.2015

Gold was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent days that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 1216.56.Price has been stopped from more descend with reaching to the specified support level (conversion level r=s) and In the range of formed bottom price there are Inverted hammer and Harami candlestick patterns that shows the possibility for formation of a successful bottom price in continuing ascending trend(need to be confirmed by a bullish candle)

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 1307.35 and bottom price of 1216.56 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 78.6 and 127.2 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the D point of this pattern by the next cycle and warns about the potential of ascending of the price during the next days.Generally until the bottom price of 1216.56 is preserved, there is a potential for ascending and price reformation in this Metal.


----------



## Joules MM1

looking constructive for longs




http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5


----------



## Joules MM1

Chris, 

impulsive bid; rather than (just) breaking the level, sellers hitting the strength and a fake move thru that level

a follow-thru on clean impulsive action is merely a chart pointer that we have further to go in that immediate direction and part of the reason for posting to this thread is to stay on course with/via actual trading (regardless of the platform)

impulsive selling we saw into the low with trend-following managers ....so if the reverse is going on then it's likely we are seeing commercial hedgers not just unwinding what few  shorts are open (STO) but buying to open longs (BTO)...so moving from STO positions thru to BTC to BTO
overwhelming the offer side in a clean manner

thanks


suggest you watch generic $DX to work with ideas you may already have 
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looking for some short covering action at the least? Should be interesting!


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> Chris,
> 
> impulsive bid; rather than (just) breaking the level, sellers hitting the strength and a fake move thru that level




relative size and context

a break of the level i sited would alter a cuple things

all "things" are my perspective

the first thing is the context is not just an hourly or moment by moment play, rather, against the daily downtrend, the weekly downtrend, a cyclical downtrend in commodities, a probable monthly and quarterly downtrend in metals...another component maybe total liquidity, if participation is low it doesnt necessarily bode well for either side of the liquidity game (buy-side liquidity or sell-side liquidity and these two things are unknown to me, so, given the weekly context, i wanna be pdq at altering my opinion when i'm long)

so if we're to see a swing north of any significance there should be a distinct traffic in one direction at distinct levels where STO's are forced to cover and BTO's are pressing the game and in the scheme of things 1107 to 1075 is a pretty small range and deep pockets arent going to frig around playing subtle.....

so relatively speaking we should be looking like someone pressed the panic button on the way up like it was on the way down with specific levels that are going to be markers...in a decent upswing the impulsive moves have sellers in them with old emotive logic, this gang is opening small STO's and some players getting out at best available price...but they get consumed like tony montana snorting his final line...

but, like russian dolls and games within games and all that stuff, there are some levels that scream if-you-take-me-out-i'm-a-cheap-date

we havent done that......yet...working in both camps favour is that now we're in an inside game, building pressure
....and it;s a game that should be considered thus: if youre wrong GTFO !!

study of prob swing anecdotes https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...24462&page=167&p=876928&viewfull=1#post876928





what's clear in my noggin is probably like mud in yours, so, prompt away....everything's a learning curve 

ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

forgot this .....a reason to be scoping the long side with wider exposure


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looking like $1089 support and $1105 resistance tonight - see if it holds?


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looking like $1089 support and $1105 resistance tonight - see if it holds?




we'll know in 19 mins when US equities open




blue arrows=BTO
yellow arrows=STO


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looking like $1089 support and $1105 resistance tonight - see if it holds?




Unc....manic jackrabbits .....i'm a passenger,




 i'm not sure what tickets i've bought


----------



## Joules MM1

FOMC 4am aest 

open pos's need to allow for the game that'll be played

a cupla :22_yikes: fakes would not surprise before we get underway


----------



## Uncle Festivus

No reaction - is the patient still alive??:wreath


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> No reaction - is the patient still alive??:wreath




:sleeping: 

torcher mode, inside days, back down to 91's then up again?

commercials not pulling the pin, just yet.... :grenade:


----------



## Joules MM1

finagling around a bit.....with china pmi tomorrow you'lll wanna think about mondays open

if commercials are the least open shorts in a decade and small traders have flipped to bear mode (nett open sells)
then managers are just a reflex-behind in their trend-foollowing


----------



## Joules MM1

lol

just

lol

thanks to Brooke for the link (https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat)

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/30/inv...ld-drop-to-350/index.html?iid=surge-stack-dom

$350, so there and this arvo, too


----------



## Uncle Festivus

$350? Shyzer! I'm gonna dump another 2 tonnes tonight - don't say I didn't warn you?

They might as well say $Zero and be done with it?

I skimmed through their paper - an old 'trader' and an academic - neither had much clue by the looks?


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> $350? Shyzer! I'm gonna dump another 2 tonnes tonight - don't say I didn't warn you?
> 
> They might as well say $Zero and be done with it?
> 
> I skimmed through their paper - an old 'trader' and an academic - neither had much clue by the looks?




we're still stuck in the frame work: $DX up $GOLD down 

kinda-sorta looks good until I see all the move remain within the confines of previous swings

once we break those cycles all constraints are off and the muppets can thank the media for emptying their accounts for them
	

		
			
		

		
	




ratio 1:1 denotes immediate level to break


----------



## Joules MM1

context and relative size

bigger picture review.....is this the start of the beginning of the bounce to end all bounces ? 

let's review the rearview
	

		
			
		

		
	




arrows denote BTO


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> c.is this the start of the beginning of the bounce to end all bounces ?




that's coy ......anyways

keep constant that we're still technically in a flag for lower price levels....and we're now technically in a bottoming phase

that's lingo for being trapped between to points with sharks 
breaking 1102's in a strong bid with $DX heading south would be the first signal that this is a good long


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> keep constant that we're still technically in a flag for lower price levels....and we're now technically in a bottoming phase




looking at several time scales







looking for the first swing against the upmove to figure A GTFO or B to add or C to STO in the wide range


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> looking for the first swing against the upmove to figure A GTFO or B to add or C to STO in the wide range




pause for effect as they say




US equities opened 19 mins ago ......no news on the blower


----------



## Joules MM1

none of this is any use unless it (re)frames the next (larger) phase of play
don't be the second mouse to the cheese only to find the cheese is poisoned...

please review the daily chart ratios and measures i placed here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=564&p=877286&viewfull=1#post877286

note the ratios have held firm when compared the current live $DX activity

the $DX has provided a solid background thus far for thinking that the upside holds less risk than the downside
or put another way, currently, in the lower time scales, there is greater risk to STO's than BTO's

size accordingly

keep clear that both $GOLD and $DX may rise together over long period of time and be confounding
correlation is not causation and often coincidental, your regime for trading must be robust enough that you are
alerted to when that correlation is no longer effective and what that might mean for your planning

this has been a live play by play summary that include some of the technique i have honed

I specifically do not use indicia of any kind on the gold trade (synthetic instrument) other than various ad-hoc auctioning instruments and price lengths .....it's  a good idea to wear a helmet when riding a bike, but, when riding a bike in the 'running of the bulls' the helmet is kinda limited 

if price breaks down thru 1091's i'll be out for the weekend .....the days trades give plenty of points in the bag after scaling...the main point is to get a handle on the larger picture, reduce risk and know where to add for the longer ride, to get clear markers


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> ...frames the next (larger) phase of play
> don't be the second mouse to the cheese only to find the cheese is poisoned...
> 
> if price breaks down thru 1091's ....to get clear markers




marker?




www.finviz.com heatmap to the stars!

price held in a  nice side channel into saturday, 
while the weekly view gives no clear signal there are occasions, 
even in a ripping uptrend, those signals were absent ....the contract size is the key marker,  we may need another face-tearing slalom to resolve the current phase of psychology and liquidity

russian dolls


----------



## Joules MM1

sunday

this caught my eye





			
				Brett Steenbarger said:
			
		

> A common piece of market wisdom is that traders must trade in a way that is consistent with their personalities.  There is truth to that--a quantitative investor probably will not do well as a discretionary day trader--but all too often that principle is used to justify sticking with trading methods that simply do not fit market conditions.





the question is, how far back does any technique have to travel to gain a reasonable framework for the technique to be effective, how far back to frame each part of a technique to each size of market play, 
or, looking forward, how far forward can a technique focus, sharply enough, to play chop for the smaller time frame ?

to use an analogy, think of a an Olympic relay that occurs on one day
what kind of practice does a 800m sprinter need to do to become a 100m sprinter
what type of things does a 100m sprinter need to do to be a 800m sprinter

the market does not suit a 100m sprinter all the time, nor a 800m sprinter all the time
and you as a trader need to know the length of the race and whom you are racing with and against
before, during and after the race ....this is a limited analogy in that it supposes the auction is linear
and I have likened the auction to a rugby match where your opponent is coming at you with the ball, at speed,
twice your size, your job is to stop him, he drops the right shoulder and steps left...it's a no-win, you didnt get pummeled (that's nice!) and he scores the try (that's not!) notwithstanding that a rugby game has four corners and time limits, the dynamics of an auction has advantages that are themselves a disadvantage used incorrectly
summised incorrectly, engaged incorrectly, framed incorrectly, given incorrect context

rugby players have a specific-sized ball rule, traders screw up by constantly carrying the wrong sized ball,
a conversation all to itself......

so these are basic questions, to frame the current phase of play, about how to deal with intent, stop-runs,
news whips, completing set-ups, creating a play, true breaks, false break, when to scale most vigorously, when to add, when price is impulsively traveling, when price is being moved with intent, when money is 
moving in or out, moving in and out for an upcoming release, when to say I don't know, 
when to sit on your hands during games within games, phases within phases, building ideas on what has priority,
etc etc

again, i ask how far back do we need to look
the reason is size of money 
i keep hammering about relative size and context
part of the reason some technicians had success, huge success, in some phases of play is simply due to bringing the greatest leverage they could to one specific stage of play, for example, Hurst understood that the further out in his Sigma bands price traveled, the higher the probabilities that major money would bring itself to the table to take a major stake in the buy-side game when price slumped, regardless of the immediacy of causality that money would come into play, hence, someones account is buying all that panic selling, someones selling to all that bargain buying, at sigma 1 the most likely bids are retail with the reactive time span of a latte, 
at sigma 5 deep pockets with a time span of a decade, probably, maybe longer.....

so, if that has truth on that larger time scale, how can that be focused on intraday, what are the markers that give a clue to holding positions into the next time scale....once these are identified, they need to be dissected backwards, to bring balance 

relative size + context + balance

understand the relative size of a previous set of phases, focusing each level phase of price (price width)
find context for each phase and price width
when is context different, how is it different for each size of price width
width is different to length, in that, price can travel the same distance twice and hint that that is a completion
but if the context is different and not interpreted correctly then your balance is lost, that is, you have become emotively attached to a previous phase of play without realising you are now in that emotive logic
every single execution has context as it has its own size, bid v offer, every single execution has its own intent to do business in a certain zone, whether its framed as value or framed as a function of price, or simply emotive logic ....being aware that not every single bid is met by a single offer, that multiple bids can be met by a single offer, that a single bid (size) can be filled by multiple offers (same size in total) and this alone clearly tells us of the dynamics of many ideas of price fulfilling one single idea of price...in an auction process where many traders are going to make their daily bread, lose a truck load, oversize, get divorced, lose the house, be in debt


there is no such thing as laziness, there is only such a thing as personal accountability
you cannot define for a person what laziness is, you can define for someone what personal accountability is

I can prove that beyond opinion, in that, your brain can grasp a firm idea by rules and guidelines what accountability actually is in a tangible, present-day, in-the-moment, actionable and realisable way that can bring effective results

lazyness conversely is a summation of something abstract, it lends to judgement and does not allow one to progress, rather regress, it does not seek to do anything constructive

traders are mostly one of two things ignorant or slightly ignorant = price discovery
it is neither good nor bad, right nor wrong only extent

applying my own accountability i  do all the parts I have placed here for you to read

balance is the practice of asking the question of what-if in any given phase of play, within each size of play, the context for that play

there must be a tool that allows balance to fruition, for me the basic tool is employing a wide array of  ratios
however, again, not applied in ad-hoc way, not in a mechanical way, not in any rigidity
rather, in a structural way that pushes to understand the auction in terms of the time of the day, week, month
to assist in affirming or disseminating what kind type of liquidity is at work, at what point is retail money stepping in, manager money at work, deep pockets at work.....keeping alive the idea that these things are not absolute, in other words, framing probabilities is mostly yet not always about understanding the auction activity, sometimes the trade is a memory set-up of experience, experience being a sum of memory, like an unconscious competence (a different conversation to this one) this array of ratios allow for balance, what should be happening, what is happening, what would typically happen, phases within phases, allowing time to think without having the tool do the thinking for me

tools don't fail traders do, patterns don't fail traders do, trend-lines are just lines on a chart, they dont fail, the trader who drew them fails, bars don't open or close too early traders do, moving averages dont mislead, trader misunderstand, traders oversize and fail, triangles on a chart are only triangle until they're no longer that shape
like head and shoulders, they're an attempt to force price into an idea, a rush to a conclusion and those conclusions do more damage when they're bear out in a traders favour as the next time, when the trader gets beaten up does it become apparent that the previous occasion was coincidental

it is as much to get into your head about failure in trade execution as it is to have fear of smoking to cause you cancer, to have fear that stepping off a 100 storied building without a rope is to over-sizing your positions
your accountability lays within how you understand and internalize each part of your knowledge

to just know something is not enough

as much as it is the current activity that can cause damage, non-activity needs it's own context and understanding....what is stopping activity...what do they see that I don't, what's causing hesitation, what's affecting momentum.....ideally these things are read in the bars and not thru a derivative of price

rigidity of any format, or technique, breaks down where the dynamics of price transitions or rotates to a new phase within a larger phase

a challenge in posting  ideas in forums is correct language, as language regardless of how subtle or pedantic it may seem, elicits specific focus that we each have whether inate or practiced, you may interpret me to mean one thing and go on a journey from there.....in that instance there is a vacuum at play

the consequences of vacuum, or vacuous conversation cannot be underestimated
it is the responsibility of the writer to be absolutely clear, concise and indepth to the point of nauseating boredom for the reader, as much as it is the responsibility to play his/her own part on narrating what they think is being conveyed
I am flippant and rude of any piece that i think to be shallow and dangerous for readers if that piece clearly purports itself to be knowledgeable in the trading game

again, language, as any surgeon or barrister shall attest, plays such a vital role in posting as it does in self-talk during a trading session, 
a trader may not need to elocute outloud what is unfurling, yet, one requires a definitive dialogue when conveying to another person what their ideas are, this alone is the area where well-intentioned conversations have led to basic failings for the recipient, not withstanding, in many instances, the recipient may build  a whole framework of thinking based on those conversations or a single idea, especially where the starting details or ending details are not apparent 

most traders are asking questions to arrive at most-meaningful answers
most students of the auction process are asking questions of when something is the most-meaningless

FT71's 3 phases of a trader:


			
				Trader FT71 said:
			
		

> Risk averse, Risk neutral, Risk seeking




those 3 phases are true of a student of the markets too, long before any bet is placed, long before any trade is placed, those 3 phases are true in any endeavor, they are endogenous to us as human beings

the rush to be right and look good are part of what most of us bring to the auction process, our rubbish baggage.

you should not assume, reading any text on  trading, that you understand what is being said in its entirety, with all the parts, nuances, practiced (or otherwise) skill-sets the writer has or has placed in front of you,
it is your responsibility to ask at what point a trading idea breaks down to its weakest point


first, define how many moving parts are in the text, then begin to dissect each part, thinking thru each part, taking time to suppose possibilities for each part so you can move to the probabilities of weakness/strength that exists within each part, 

at that point you have your own cognitive logic to forward test, you are creating your own balance, you are creating your own context, you are building your own unconscious competence and building the rules for your own accountability

I am not a tutor. 

re-commend this thought process:
FT71's 3 phases of a trader:


			
				Trader FT71 said:
			
		

> traders go from Risk averse, to Risk neutral, to Risk seeking





sources:
Dr Brett Steenbarger
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/getting-past-frustration-of-trading.html
FT71
https://twitter.com/futurestrader71


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> to use an analogy, think of a an Olympic relay that occurs on one day
> what kind of practice does a 800m sprinter need to do to become a 100m sprinter
> what type of things does a 100m sprinter need to do to be a 800m sprinter
> 
> relative size + context + balance understand the relative size of a previous set of phases, focusing each level phase of price (price width) find context for each phase and price width
> 
> 
> to just know something is not enough
> 
> I am flippant and rude of any piece that i think to be shallow and dangerous for readers if that piece clearly purports itself to be knowledgeable in the trading game
> 
> 
> 
> most traders are asking questions to arrive at most-meaningful answers
> most students of the auction process are asking questions of when something is the most-meaningless
> 
> 
> sources:
> Dr Brett Steenbarger
> http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/getting-past-frustration-of-trading.html
> FT71
> https://twitter.com/futurestrader71





Lots of interesting stuff in there Joules ......... +1 on anything by Brett Steenbarger 

Good to have you posting again


----------



## Joules MM1

up'natum, Barney


----------



## Joules MM1

what's the cost of entry?

giving up a few points is the cost of education.....holding the 50% swing of friday is good sign for longs


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=564&p=877286&viewfull=1#post877286

$DX



data #'s courtesy http://www.timingcharts.com/


----------



## Joules MM1

some of the upmoves have excellent qualities ......stuck in this tight range the energy keeps building

$DX broke its ratio and we maybe about to go thru a few months where both $GOLD and $DX run parallel

NFP produced more yawns than volaitility


----------



## Joules MM1

don't usually stay up this late....suffice to say  last cupla day giving more clues we're heading back up for a weekly/monthly swing....todays is also a turn-date so worth the extra time to get set if possible

or.....more of this...... 

silver is playing along.....could be Morecambe and Wise...suspect we'll know monday


----------



## Joules MM1

sunday

last week both thursday/friday nights i traded into early hours, friday as a turn-date for PM's
and that the Non-Farm Pays #'s were due it seemed a good time to watch how the plays were setting up
....not everything is a play but given the time and event of the NFP #'s this was worth the watch

I had a BTO on friday on the SPX that had a nice/rare set-up that called for an up-swing,
price hit the level and immediately begun to move up, not ideally, still, moving up...
i had small size, waited to see how well it would develop,
a STC immediately below the entry and a view to BTO (the prob of a fake are low based on this technique)
my technique also says this play calls for a STO if price reverses thru the BTO entry

at this point i am running 30 second bars
the action going up from the entry developed in such a way that memory said be ready for this to reverse
as it lost energy very quickly and begun to find the bid being clearly swamped
at the first sign of this i began to scale, in auto mode rather than anything else,

the entry level was broken, i reversed - STO
(i'll come back to the point for the above)

gold has not made good on its anecdotal promise to lift......at least not yet
the NFP #'s produced a whizzer of nothing, but, interestingly, that didnt mean that liquidity wasnt being put to work
and i had to wait a while to see new bids come into gold, price began to look constructive again
a small series of lower highs with each lift looking constructive and each fall overlapping
as if it was easier to tell a story of price being bought up and allowed to rotate down
this lends itself to an idea that strength remains with the bid (commercials) and allowed to rotate down (small speculators)

I tend to think of liquidity entering as much to do with when rather than just where and how much
not really so much interested in why on every occasion, suffice to say, positive money flows that dont happen when it has
on previous occasions maybe telling as much as when it does rip in on news
in essence, as news does not drive a trend, rather, news is subjugative of trend,  while a news rip is often the set-up for the real intent
(in many instances on gold) when it does not rip up setting up a sell, then, it is a whole different story,
just as valid just as worth inspecting, especially so, asking, how does it set up context, what's making this buy-side liquidity
come in now instead of on the news
when the NFP's came out there was muted reaction, so, no sell-side liquidity of any notable size
....conspicuous by your absence etc etc
what's interesting is not about the reaction to NFP's looking great or looking lousy, it is the non-reaction at all
that maybe saying one group is no longer committed to buying while the other side is no longer committed to selling strength

if I look back to june/july 2014 that swing low is the only recent previous occasion when small speculators are
nett short (-10.4k) contracts
the last 7 weeks of reporting from timingcharts.com for COT report goes like this:
commercial hedgers
-100k
-72k
-54k
-48.4k
-21.5k
-15.5k
-14.8k
the last 7 weeks of reporting from timingcharts.com for COT report goes like this:
small speculators
5.7K
7.6k
2.1k
.6k
-6.7k
-9.2k
-15k
out of the 7 week sample (pointless going further back, regardless of technique, one should see the trend within trend)

it is clear to see intent from a contract point of view




does that mean an imminent (monday 10th) swing north is coming, no, absolutely not.....
although I was/am clearly expecting a time-window to close soon
this is like the example of the friday trade on the spx, except that I'm looking to get set for the much larger swing north
on a weekly to monthly basis, but, insistantly, regardless the anecdotal bias, levels be levels!!
do the numbers mean we are going to see a repeat of the lift of june/july 2014, no, not necessarily, not right away
and if not right away does that mean more downside and if so what kind of downside?
probably swift, very swift series of small jabs, quicker than the flush that recently brought gold to its current zone

levels are clear and as the commercials basically hold all the fire power at this point and are making the trend
I need to stick to the only two levels that mean anything right now while playing smaller internal jabs of 2-4 points

so, if we suddenly move out of the zone, adjusting the technique to allow for much wider price length
from bifocals to binoculars, fork to shovel, knife to chainsaw

but the chop is telling a story.....it's always telling a story.....gold is one of those beasts that doesnt "just" bring liquidity
it's a (contemporary pun alert) game of throttles!!  #sorrynotsorry
.....liquidity flowing (buy-side or sell-side)is a set-up for the next move

we have two groups,
not inc the managers who are mandated to trend-follow
commercials are more inclined to actions of cognitive logic,
small speculators are more inclined to reactions emotive logic

we have two groups,
one more likely to  buy (await) cheap supply and buy-to-close shorts
one more likely to sell-to-open lows in chop

we have two groups
one looking for much wider time scale, sit and wait once in position
one itchy to look good and be right,

we have two groups,
one that makes trend
one that gets trapped in positions that force them to exit at a loss

we have two groups on two different time scales and size of money

the point is if the commercials aren't getting enough supply, they can easily open fire and down we go,
the small speculators will then be adamantly tied to sell side (STO and STC)

currently daily basis chart displays a pennant hinting at more of the same direction but it's not that much different to the play
coming out of the June 2014 low anecdotally, plus, we have extended sells in CL, copper and platinum with a raging USD in the background
deflation is ripe and equities keep their extreme credit-debt-driven trends intact ....not our grandfathers markets, for sure

I have two levels on the downside that have standard measures, 1045 and 1054 (favouring 1045's)
these are basic ratios and gold is one instrument that lends itself to ratios
technically, if youre inclined to it, there's now a small penanty thing formed,
a lot of energy is now trapped inside this zone, if it can lift on its own then that bodes well for longs
but if we fail the recent low it's I expect the pace to be pretty quick, with or without news
given the extent of the commercials and speculators face-ripping moves should be considered normal

going back the opening paragraph, the levels are clearly defined at the moment, all other things aside,
if commercials are going to take price lower, then, lower we go and no price travels in one direction forever

executing cognitive logic less exhausting than emotive logic
"There's only one thing certain in life, Blondini, and that's doubt .. I think." GoodBye PorkPie


----------



## Joules MM1

i have stop/buys firing off as $DX takes its second steps south in its abc correction of its longer term bull phase
which creates an opportunity for longs on PM's in the larger bear cycle

this thread is not being interacted, which probably says a lot about this vehicle as a trading instrument


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 63784
> 
> 
> i have stop/buys firing off as $DX takes its second steps south in its abc correction of its longer term bull phase
> which creates an opportunity for longs on PM's in the larger bear cycle
> 
> this thread is not being interacted, which probably says a lot about this vehicle as a trading instrument



Whilst I'm not actively trading PMs at present, I am enjoying this thread and am confident that others are also.


----------



## Joules MM1

cynic 

a lot of whakamole on that 1.9% yuan event

provided an entry and boundaries to work with tho

forexample


----------



## Joules MM1

Chris ......there's that impulsive move 

first impeded by the yuan reset....no bars held now...commercials at work, small speccie shorts getting crushed


----------



## Joules MM1

this is an oversized call, maybe enough merit for a swing for a few weeks, maybe enough of a prompt for Asia to lift prices when London/NewYork are asleep?

8h8 hours ago


			
				John LaForge ‏@Phomax  said:
			
		

> Chinese flee paper money, into #gold (chart), enough to counter dying #commodity super-cycle? Maybe. @NDR_Research


----------



## Joules MM1

quick review

while this is a day trading thread, i'm kinda walking the line on time frames so even tho there are "fix" times this isnt a session like equities and liquidity washing in an out in different sizes is a lot less like equities
the main task has been to refine a break out with a bias to the upside based on ratios that have been hit, the cycles at hand, the extreme sentiment displayed in the media, propensity of small specs to flip from one emotive logic to the next, the extreme low level of participation, the lowest level of short sales by commercial hedgers, orthodox patterning of the wedge, the 50%(ish) level of the Aug 1999 low to 2011 (144 month cycle) price high

50% is a generic number, not a Fibonacci number (there are no records from Pisano Fibonacci (son of Bonacci) that states he ever employed 50%) however, the mid level is a popular level for deep pockets to meet and peel a few bananas and make the dogs spin around in one spot make dizzy and walk sideways, ruh-roh!

the Yuan peg/fix/rate thing cause a headspin in many instruments and is going to have some sloshing around when north america opens but none of it is going to alter the basic course en mode now, at least, I dont think it should and now we've had that hiccup we appear to be on our way..it's kinda micro the market, nothing is bigger than the market itself.......

I dont think this is the trip where pricing is ideal to just fade pulls, I think this trip will see faders get faded, a messy affair and the need to keep a constant eye on context and relative size of moves, volatility increasing, keeping sizes small 

.....when youre right you get _some_ of the points when youre wrong you get _all_ the points!

I am making the case that price must not go below 1097 for the upside to keep its journey intact
we have had 4  that say enough constructive pricing has taken shape and that (interestingly) the 4th lift was on a 1:1 ratio of the move that led to the 3rd lift (see earlier chart) so, constructively, even if not day-trade basis, I can make the case that it's now or never for longs to get and keep traction, albeit in a sloppy manner the further we get from the base zone

what is _not_ happening is as valid as what _is_ happening 

ideally, the level for upside break-out is now the support level to test
3 mins

View attachment 63794


60 mins

View attachment 63795


----------



## Joules MM1

more building blocks


----------



## Joules MM1

no doubt more humina humina to come ...but the market is bigger than mechanics and nothing in the mechanics has essentially changed, temporary shift in how values are achieved does not necessarily mean the trending sense of value has shifted

magnifying glass or binoculars ?


----------



## Joules MM1

very popular,  in the non-trading media to have barfing lamas, puking camels and lumpy rhinos
just to name a few sketch-artist patterns.....but you can't beat that old stalwart  cup n handle...... 

in the play book today on the low of the news was an inverted ratio of 1:127.2, you'll see it in a one min chart





lochness is  fave tho


----------



## Joules MM1

scaling positions

1135's should offer first ripple (the handle?), silver is along for the ride also forming small flag 




$SILVER volume says more of the same


----------



## Joules MM1

price action thus far since the base-build has been less than impressive, mostly due to finnagling in fx
even so, there are markers that suggest we'll keep ascending and giving some clear levels to protect

less than impressive also implies not a new uptrend, rather confirming a bounce of the monthly downtrend
....that doesnt mean price cannot break into an impulsive trend but i think it needs to happen soon, very soon

using silver as surrogate for  support ideas ...by that i mean, if one is showing constructive signs and they begin to swap those constructive signs that bodes well for the current hourly to daily pricing (up)




hurdles that appear in the right place for a bounce should not appear in an impulsive uptrend
it's like seeing a sprinter in a marathon .....carrying a relay baton


----------



## Joules MM1

selling local equities causing XGD to close -4.2% today.... local stocks like GOR looking attractive again
the XGD's activity belies the struggling pullback both silver/xauusd

cleaned up the silver ratio....both patterns appear to have same qualities while the pullback in silver is far shallower
after i had posted the previous charts i shifted my view to 1107.5's as the level to sit out and wait
but i think the current hourly pricing is saying we have further upside to come

View attachment 63828


with $dx in retreat 2.4c ish over 4 days is making a considerable bias for more upside.....so far


----------



## Joules MM1

saturday

useful sites

http://www.timingcharts.com/

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=d1

http://www.barchart.com/




Washington DC home of the CFTC 
Washington DC is 14 hours behind AEST Melbourne
COT report is released 3.30pm fridays, eastern time

release addy: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm




note the blue boxes (BTO) less red boxes (STO) = last weeks positions sizes for the 3 most commonly reported groups

much simpler to visit TimingCharts.com and see contract size history for relative size and comparisons
Barchart.com is useful with the Swaps are seperated

:cup:


----------



## Joules MM1

sunday

silver can go as low as 14.98, hit the round number stops and still remain in an upward bias
that area is now a floor of previous higher acceptance zone, being 50% of the current swing
....sitting on the top of the 4 hour bars of two preceding fridays 
if price fails to get upside momentum back thru 15.62's at that point that'll be another idea to sit out and watch
or switch to looking for STO opportunities, especially, I'd be looking for any fake move that gets pulled straight back into the current zone




silver was halted at the most recent swing high relationship (1:1 ratio), not a great sign for the bulls, you'd think
however, we're in a bounce, lottsa fakes, cftc report day, numbers get crunched, managers have mini marls etc etc
on previous charts you see i have that level marked in yellow as 16.32's it was a good marker to get sells on but it requires context, which game is on is the question....leading to the question is it a return to the larger downtrend or merely an opportunity to shake the tree .......get yerr cheap acorns




the two metals dont have to be parallel yet have similar structure and currently they are inverse to $DX
so if we keep that profile then that gives room to think more of the same (up)



events in AEST 
Wednesday 10.30pm USD Core CPI m/m #'s
Friday 11:45am 	CNY 		Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI
Friday 5:30pm 	EUR 		German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Friday 10:30pm 	CAD 		Core CPI m/m

gold has held up at a smaller ratio on friday, that's a good sign for the same 
direction (up) and I'm satisfied to play  longside above 1107.5's:





old skool idea of the cup n handle is still a valid idea preferred on a larger time frame tho...

and we've travelled up 50+ points, no V reversal, lacking energy for a major swing low 
....of the 50+ points so far the best move has been the 3 days 24th-27th for 
31 points it also has provided best structure, so, we could summise that the following 
incline has been weak discovery, again, stressing that time is now running out if 
we're to get a genuine bullish phase underway.....
the cftc report for the 11th shows small increase in short sales for commercial 
hedgers and a lift in longs for speculators, and while that favours the 
downside, just, going back to the previous post, swaps have made a 
quiet no riot cross that's worth remembering....tiny bully signals tiny bear signals




knowing the levels, playing the chop on small size, small points remains key 
slice and not be sliced :samurai:


----------



## Joules MM1

> *Empire State index in August tumbles to worst level since recession*





> Published: Aug 17, 2015 8:30 a.m. ET
> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A reading of New York-area manufacturing conditions tumbled in August to the worst reading since the recession, the New York Fed said Monday. The Empire State general business conditions index nosedived to a reading of negative 14.9, from positive 3.9 in July. The index, on a scale where any positive number indicates improving conditions, was far worse than the positive 4.5 forecast in a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll. The new-orders component sank to negative 15.7 from negative 3.5, and the shipments index sank to negative 13.8 from positive 7.9. Oddly, perhaps, the index for future business activity climbed seven points to 33.6.




http://www.marketwatch.com/story/em...-level-since-recession-2015-08-17?siteid=bnbh

deflationary #'s dont imply immediate direction.....only immediate set-up for the next move

woop! there it is .....

$dx swoops down, PM's whooshka .....$DAX drops a load


----------



## Joules MM1

are PM's manipulated ?

no one cares, mate!

i bought some longs on silver today......if the play is as-usual these should last a few days

i like those ratios; $DX at 70.7 $SILVER at 70.7



blue arrows=BTO, redlines=stops

a shake out at silverado cafe ?


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> are PM's manipulated ?
> 
> no one cares, mate!
> 
> i bought some longs on silver today......if the play is as-usual these should last a few days
> 
> i like those ratios; $DX at 70.7 $SILVER at 70.7
> 
> View attachment 63894
> 
> blue arrows=BTO, redlines=stops
> 
> a shake out at silverado cafe ?
> 
> View attachment 63895




Interested your reason for buying Silver. I have only skimmed though some of your post but it would appear Fibs play an important role? I closed out my Silver short I took on Monday 17.8.15 last night but never could I imagine the drop was so severe. I did not get out at the low of yesterday and wish I did like any trader would. LOL

The trend on the daily is anything but bearish including the momentum. Price seems to have rested temporarily on a block of range traffic to the left. If there is a reversal to the upside from here than you have the potential for a higher trough. I still rather play the downside so just waiting for the next opportunity. Good luck.


----------



## Joules MM1

AJ

yeah, levels ...each one needs inspection and context...


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> AJ
> 
> yeah, levels ...each one needs inspection and context...




Could you explain the Silver ratio 70.7? 

I got out at just above 15bucks RN. Didn't bother scaling this time which I usually do and would still be in the trade.  Murphy's law.


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> Could you explain the Silver ratio 70.7?
> 
> I got out at just above 15bucks RN. Didn't bother scaling this time which I usually do and would still be in the trade.  Murphy's law.






the remark is facetious...$dx inverse to silver at same length....one of those whack numbers you know if you mention the origin all manner of wafflers begin ....waffling 

gold is def getting a bully on from what i can see and i think silver is getting shaken easily with low participation
and $dx had an interesting storyline into the recent failed dimple thing, question is how far can $dx rotate down...low 90's would be nice

murphy...yeah, waited till 2am for dax to roll over had to close ...... and what happens?.....pfft !!


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> the remark is facetious...$dx inverse to silver at same length....one of those whack numbers you know if you mention the origin all manner of wafflers begin ....waffling
> 
> gold is def getting a bully on from what i can see and i think silver is getting shaken easily with low participation
> and $dx had an interesting storyline into the recent failed dimple thing, question is how far can $dx rotate down...low 90's would be nice
> 
> murphy...yeah, waited till 2am for dax to roll over had to close ...... and what happens?.....pfft !!




Ok regarding Silver ratio. I don't look much at ratios but that Gold-oil ratio seems to give some leading signals.

I don't trade much silver/gold so not that familiar with the mechanics and time zones. I went short both Cable and Fiber London Open and scaled some off Cable but Fiber was so close to my first TP, missed by literally the spread. That's the market for yah!

FOMC post bedtime here so I hope to be out of everything. I have a position long EURJPY I took which was counter my fiber but this has a bigger target. Not so sure it is a good idea if it can survive Yellen's spike in prices across the board.


----------



## Joules MM1

....and todays train ride is brought to you by short-sell managers and the letters WTF




and if your'e pre-empting something southward, a word from an old stalwart:


----------



## Joules MM1

12th-August-2015, 08:04 PM







Joules MM1 said:


> ....
> 
> 1135's should offer first ripple




good activity at this level today......but looks like the yellow ducks got teeth chewing out the red ducks...someone decided it's decision time....silver has not confirmed needs to brk 15.64's ...both have a sample impulsive activity and standard-fare pullbacks thus far


----------



## Joules MM1

gold made the move thru 1135/6's zone

silver completed it cup n handle bully pattern? ....looks likely to me and once we get the 15.64's it's also likely we'll get extra "ah-ha!" momo

the panic to BTO and panic to BTC should become obvious ....:eek3::car:



> should



yep, it's a crud word, but, hey....


----------



## Joules MM1

Peter said:
			
		

> ...there's two types of liquidity; buy-side and sell-side




washing machine is running hot today....when it goes into soak mode, the stains are out.... 

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1

1135/6's level goes


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=12971&page=13&p=879062&viewfull=1#post879062

note the times of cftc release for COT report and think on likely activity surrounding the release

keep in mind that if youre long PM's they are prone to quick sells too when equities are in a strong sell mode
maybe due to liquidity requirements sets up quick whips, even so, current cycle up should remain intact

ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

it's friday, cftc dance around day

nice smack down into weak longs....are we all done now?

awaiting this weeks winning lottery numbers compliments of swaps n producers
will the big cheeses make tony hadlee sing one more round of 


> always.believe.in.your.soah-hole...you've.got.the.power.to.burn....you're-in-dees-stucta-buuurrrllll....



  please make the bad man stop....


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> ....and todays train ride is brought to you by short-sell managers and the letters WTF
> 
> View attachment 63909
> 
> 
> and if your'e pre-empting something southward, a word from an old stalwart:
> 
> View attachment 63910




Did he also advice never to take things for granted? Silver just hit that resistance and rotated back down. I sure hope Gold do not follow its poor cousin as I bought some more gold stocks today!

1162.68 gold could be a tough level to close above


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> Did he also advice never to take things for granted? Silver just hit that resistance and rotated back down. I sure hope Gold do not follow its poor cousin as I bought some more gold stocks today!
> 
> 1162.68 gold could be a tough level to close above




did he also _*advise*_ to check the details.....oh, yes 

for example: $DX


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> did he also _*advise*_ to check the details.....oh, yes
> 
> for example: $DX
> 
> View attachment 63954




Some of these intermarket stuff can be noise I don't need. I have decided before a trade where the exit points are when trade triggered. When money is at stake I can't think constructively so a planned strategy works best with me. 

A good example was yesterday EURJPY long. I had my final target but the chart "looked" like price could continue to move up. And what did I do? Move the target profit up then thought it was smart to drill down to 5m and manage. Ended up shaken by the small time noise for a slight worse off exit by 5 pips only to realise if I waited another 5 mins, it would have shot up another 30 pips from my final exit level. I should have just followed the initial plan and got my objective.

Same thing happened on the Silver short before this, messed with the final target price and came out slightly worse off again. So this evening, I left the Fiber to do its own thing even though it is already way into the NYOpen session and got my target so the third trade was the one that met objective. 

Only way for me is not to look at the trade so I trawl around forum to kill time! LOL

Have a good weekend.


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> Some of these intermarket stuff can be noise I don't need.
> 
> Only way for me is not to look at the trade so I trawl around forum to kill time! LOL
> 
> Have a good weekend.




lol, too much "copper" mate : ....that site'll do ya head in 

have a good weekend, too, AJ


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> lol, too much "copper" mate : ....that site'll do ya head in
> 
> have a good weekend, too, AJ




Looks like this forum is taking a bit of my time too!


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> Looks like this forum is taking a bit of my time too!




the most amazing few sessions have been a top distraction 

silver taken a lot of heat w equities kickers and still holding its zone and gold prob saw several accounts readjust for equity demands so even tho $DX has take a smashing gold has failed to zoom....once speccie money comes back in i'd expect to see us lift again

in the meantime, equities, too mean for many, 







> don't go gentle into that good night




....and mind your heads on the bounce


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> silver taken a lot of heat w equities kickers and still holding its zone and gold prob saw several accounts readjust for equity demands so even tho $DX has take a smashing gold has failed to zoom....once speccie money comes back in i'd expect to see us lift again
> 
> in the meantime, equities, too mean for many,
> ....and mind your heads on the bounce




Silver is worse than I thought. There is a strong support but I am not sure if it can hold this week. If you catch the 'falling knives' on gold stocks then let any good company fundamentals play out to attract the bargain hunters in time. I am not into bottom picking but if the fundamentals are compelling I just fire the buy and wait. Margins of course has to be calculated in AUD terms or else I am not interested.


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> Silver is worse than I thought. There is a strong support but I am not sure if it can hold this week. If you catch the 'falling knives' on gold stocks then let any good company fundamentals play out to attract the bargain hunters in time. I am not into bottom picking but if the fundamentals are compelling I just fire the buy and wait. Margins of course has to be calculated in AUD terms or else I am not interested.




keep at hand the idea that for all the selling an account is soaking supply....keep at hand that there is a point of extreme emotive logic of flipping from one position to the next.....someone sells at the low and someone is buying at that level.....is the current low swing a buy point for silver....what's the propensity/history of price being bought up when everyone is giving up at major daily lows?

levels are levels 

indexes are going thru their best whack period in  a very long time..


----------



## Joules MM1

mister Ash  said:

http://www.asiaonthebid.com/content...are-getting-excited-again-but-is-it-too-early

pics you can actually see !


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> keep at hand the idea that for all the selling an account is soaking supply....keep at hand that there is a point of extreme emotive logic of flipping from one position to the next.....someone sells at the low and someone is buying at that level.....is the current low swing a buy point for silver....what's the propensity/history of price being bought up when everyone is giving up at major daily lows?
> 
> levels are levels
> 
> indexes are going thru their best whack period in  a very long time..




No counter trend play for me, does not suit my trading personality. The Fiber/Cable is leading the way with the sell off back to a USD strength and Rate rise expectations again. Side lines for me.


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> No counter trend play for me, does not suit my trading personality. The Fiber/Cable is leading the way with the sell off back to a USD strength and Rate rise expectations again. Side lines for me.




fair enough

silver is at the put-up or shut-up line already .....forget the rate rise, aint gunna happen...
equities suddenly looking steady a she rises .....

gold can still slink around here for a while and looks fairly mod pullback for mine


----------



## Joules MM1

$SILVER

made  anew weekly low today .......i suspect a giant shake

bought the low swing ....this'll be interesting given the bullish tone equities have today

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1 (see it here)

metals parallel with $DX ? ......sometimes they run together for several months


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> $SILVER
> 
> made  anew weekly low today .......i suspect a giant shake
> 
> bought the low swing ....this'll be interesting given the bullish tone equities have today
> 
> http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1 (see it here)
> 
> metals parallel with $DX ? ......sometimes they run together for several months




i was wrong, had a tiny swing but made a run of the mill few cents and immediately ran out of bids
much like downtrends tend to do.....STO at 14.12's the downside opens up 13.63's and 13.03's 

remain long xauusd


----------



## Joules MM1

i've been distracting myself with attention on indexes and trading metals like a brain surgeon with welding gloves 

closed STO on #silver, remain BTO #xauusd


----------



## AverageJoe

Silver is the ultimate collapse in price after that huge run up on the monthly. I am just looking for a short here. A possibility is to play a retrace on price running up on yesterday's bear bar break. Risky as the pullback is shallow and could quite easily shoot through resistance. I think I'll let this one go for the time being.


----------



## Joules MM1

AverageJoe said:


> Silver is the ultimate collapse in price.....




be a lot of retailers thinking  that same thing.....prob a few mid-level managers  being caught in a tight squeez after the weekly low taken out

slow to take off there's plenty of reversal energy there now....will need a cupla days to prove but longs looks good again

on this chart gold has retraced back to the 50% zone....that seems normal return area to me



arrows=BTO

14.92's next hurdle for $SILVER .....

--------------------------------

* U.S. second-quarter GDP revised to show larger 3.7% gain*

Published: Aug 27, 2015 8:30 a.m. ET

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...to-show-larger-37-gain-2015-08-27?siteid=bnbh

inflationary swell in a falling tide?


----------



## AverageJoe

Joules MM1 said:


> on this chart gold has retraced back to the 50% zone....that seems normal return area to me




Yes I got that fib level too but I just look left to right and I see a big trend down so I suspect it is only temporary in nature. However if it can for a higher base from here then maybe the start of a reversal. 

Not tradable for me in between levels.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Another wedge to break out of?

The risk-on trade looks to be running out of steam so back to risk-off for another surge higher?


----------



## Joules MM1

the "where is it heading" thread has an abundance of the usual topique du waffle

and .......this thread....

"just because there have been no complaints doesnt mean everyone's happy with their parachutes..."

quite so, Benny Hill, quite so


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> the "where is it heading" thread has an abundance of the usual topique du waffle




In the absence of _any_ posts at all then contributing something is at least an opinion?



Joules MM1 said:


> and .......this thread....
> 
> "just because there have been no complaints doesnt mean everyone's happy with their parachutes..."
> 
> quite so, Benny Hill, quite so




You are/were the biggest contributor here - are you directing your comment to yourself? So what is _your_ opinion?

“Both optimists and pessimists contribute to our society. The optimist invents the airplane and the pessimist the parachute.”


----------



## cynic

Joules MM1 said:


> the "where is it heading" thread has an abundance of the usual topique du waffle
> 
> and .......this thread....
> 
> "just because there have been no complaints doesnt mean everyone's happy with their parachutes..."
> 
> quite so, Benny Hill, quite so




QuiteTrue.

 My main complaint thus far has been your prolonged absence from posting to this thread. I haven't been game to enquire after regular posters in the "where are they now?" thread on account of last year's tragic event.

I am certain that I  am not alone in saying that I  am glad you're still with us.

As for pm's,  given that I  seldom trade them, I have a somewhat limited understanding of their price behaviours and that is the reason why I  find contributions from posters like yourself so insightful.

Whilst I do also enjoy contributions from those leaning further towards the gold bug conspiracy theory end of the spectrum, I  would hate to see this thread become imbalanced to the point of losing touch with reality. So Joules please, please keep posting your insights!

Come now! No need to  be shy!

If you do this for me, I'll promise to be your best friend for the next two hours!!


----------



## Joules MM1

cynic said:


> QuiteTrue.
> 
> ... prolonged absence from posting to this thread. ...
> next two hours!!




a fair swap...... 
recent abode has been here: hotcopper/forex/xau/

anyhooz 

how about them Commercials, eh.... third largest STO size in last three peaks? yup, could be.....
287k STO just prior to aug 2011 peak
266 in Oct peak
231 last week

remember the golden tenet with the silver lining: 
Commercials make trend, Managers follow trend, Retail gets trapped by the trend

rips are for the easily trapped.....

bbs


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> how about them Commercials, eh.... third largest STO size in last three peaks? yup, could be.....
> 287k STO just prior to aug 2011 peak
> 266 in Oct peak
> 231 last week




the question for me is, is the current chop completed it's upmove and now in the throws of completing a down move a simple abc thing

arrows=STO


----------



## Joules MM1

the ideas for the Commercials influence on price direction in the larger swings sits inline with the current chart above this post

if you go to the excellent site of timingcharts.com (free) and look at the position sizing for all three groups it is very easy to see how at least two groups are subject to emotive logic

cfd currently shows 75% of all clients are long and 81% of all the top clients for this particular cfd platform are long

to me, that's a gimme for we need another strong dip into the cellar.....lotta people like to oversize, afterall, it's gold


----------



## Joules MM1

on a number of swings, since the "dimple" high at 1285's front month contract, then the Draghi hype, then the Janet hype,  there have been significant enough failures to make basic ratio lengths, plus the overlapping chop, offer enough evidence that we need to dig deeper to find the real impulsive bid for trend to drive higher....in the weekly view there's plenty of food for thought that 1500 ish is a good upside target, but, interim, the pricing is weak and atypical of impulsive trend and typical of corrective action....the auction is doing it's job of finding true levels or trend

until Commercials give a strong enough hint, not just BTC but BTO positions, it is good cognitive logic to sit on small sizes and play the swings in lower frames and sets, rather than making any major call and getting trapped
if a 10k guru wants to run your account AND take on the risk, great,  skies the limit.....

just ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

scaling game


----------



## Joules MM1

here's another one

the task is to determine if the hook that has just ended, has actually ended, or simply pausing, or recycling a previous up-down-up sequence.....not trending, treading.....halted at a 1:1 ratio
....who's footprints are these...mm's and liquidity provider types? probably


----------



## Joules MM1

someone wants it higher and taken effort to get price to ascend......not trending, stepping

"Ah c'mon all you lads, let's forget and forgive
There's a world to explore, tales to tell back on shore
I just spent six months in a leaky boat
Six months in a leaky boat"

Split Enz - Six Months In A Leaky Boat Lyrics


----------



## skyQuake

> Legal Post: Proposed $1B class action alleges Scotiabank and other banks rigged silver price




The tin foil hats must be absolutely frothing!


----------



## Joules MM1

skyQuake said:


> The tin foil hats must be absolutely frothing!






-----------




we had a cupla moves upto and rotate at the ratio res then someone stepped in a momo'd upside

no drilling holes in the bottom of the boat to let out the water


----------



## peter2

That's something different Joules. Gold going up with the SP500 and WTI. The world has become crazier.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

skyQuake said:


> The tin foil hats must be absolutely frothing!




Nothing to see here, GS is short 

Nicely times with exhausted risk trade rotation? Sell in May etc?


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> That's something different Joules. Gold going up with the SP500 and WTI. The world has become crazier.




yes, Peter ....another "rare" occasion when correlations fall to bits....looking forward to $UUP/$DX climb with $GOLD

like a larf!


----------



## Joules MM1

ratios at work







you can see the double ratios at work obstructing the upswing

the first at 1245's (green)
second at 1251's
the third ratio sits at 1264's above the flag thing

not trending higher, treading higher


----------



## Joules MM1

rejection at the top of the flag thing

a lot of work was put into getting there

good stuff if youre in mode of distribution


----------



## Joules MM1

second attempt finds big boots kicking the door down on the top of that pennant thing

hiho silver we're right behind you


----------



## Joules MM1

did we just get a false brk or a retest of the pennant thing ?

some heavy hitters in the arena 




arrows=STO


----------



## CanOz

Nice, the ecb theme helping....


----------



## Joules MM1

COT report is going to make compulsory reading his week


----------



## Joules MM1

set-ups and traps

forced to cover...the move up exhausted with little fight, those bids done, roll over




trap or not ?


----------



## Joules MM1

more horse radish less like Rorschach

out of sync ....sic!


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 66395
> 
> 
> more horse radish less like Rorschach
> 
> out of sync ....sic!




Lots of jawboning and speculation about more actions on the part of Japanese banks....Started with a Bloomy survey results....that was 11:30 am our time here and it flushed the shorts out of the Asian markets quick smart....


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Lots of jawboning and speculation about more actions on the part of Japanese banks....Started with a Bloomy survey results....that was 11:30 am our time here and it flushed the shorts out of the Asian markets quick smart....




kinda fits the pricing.......i'm liking a rising DX from this mornings ram-raid


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> kinda fits the pricing.......i'm liking a rising DX from this mornings ram-raid




Certainly knocked the Yen around a bit too...


----------



## Joules MM1

82% want in....


----------



## Joules MM1

referring to the above image, the images below clearly show metals may encounter a tawdry pullback
it would be also fair to say we are not at such an extreme that the trade has too many on one side of the boat, yet

relatively speaking we're at the top of a small contract-size peak, having completed one leg up, 
probably requiring a leg down (liking 1185's) and then a new high leg to complete the current bounce

here are a cupla images that should invoke thought if youre stuck in emotive logic mode (longside)
by being stretched strong longs become weak longs

this is from a cupla weeks ago with relative positions



looking at the extremes of sentiment rep'd by contract size, it would be fair to say retail is fairly manic already

even tho price had halted the climb from 1046 (front month cfd) you can see 
the contract sizes reflects expectation and while (some) commercials 
are hedging, managers and retail are (mostly) not:


----------



## Joules MM1

channel


----------



## Joules MM1

back ground impetus (short)....or, back grind (long)


----------



## Joules MM1

further look at sentiment as a dichotomy of price..
for gold this tends to imply the easy directional trade is all but done, too
expect more shlop and nasty chops


----------



## Joules MM1

cycles

interesting occurence is the rotation of the 144 month low to high of the bull phase late 1999 thru 2011

of course this depends on whether you consider the july 1999 $US251 low as THE low or september take-off ($US254 low) as the significant cyclic trigger, as this shifts the rotation of the monthly cycle

but, lets say the 144 cycle (that's the one that effected the XJO too at 6000 level) from the september take-off is valid  and  is currently still in effect, that offers a smaller rotation within the same cycle (extended)

here are the two cycles 
the first 144 month cycle is the original bull phase and the secondary cycle maybe an echo, whatever it is, there is clearly a reason to think the cycle is beyond mere coincidence or maybe causal of the current pullback within the current multi-week bounce

i'm not looking to take any meaningful positions in this supposition, yet, the timing and cyclic outlook are worth reviewing each weekend so as not to get caught in the 30second-bar bias...much


----------



## Joules MM1

add to the above post, time


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...XGD/sandpasx-all-ordinaries-gold-sub-industry

local $XGD stocks roaring

S&P/ASX ALL ORDINARIES GOLD (SUB INDUSTRY)
Price
	Change
	Last updated
Index Details
3823.10
	135.2(3.67%)
	27 Apr 2016 - 1:27PM


----------



## Joules MM1

to speech or not to speech, central bank cut n paste comments be the answer



thanks, Janet


----------



## Joules MM1

and thank you !

second bite

chart with emoji


----------



## notting

> t's a total shock," said Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors. "From currencies to equities to everything - you can see the reaction in the markets. I can't believe this. It's very disappointing."




Yep 'no more mojo'


----------



## Joules MM1

$XGD constits are in uber bully mode ....time to take a pause ?




S&P/ASX ALL ORDINARIES GOLD (SUB INDUSTRY)
Price
	Change
	Last updated
Index Details
3935.70
	135.9(3.58%)
	29 Apr 2016 - 2:54PM
XGD - GOLD

Share prices delayed by 20 minutes
ASX Code 	Last Price 	% Move 	52wk High 	52wk Low 	P/E 	Market Cap
ASX Code 	Last Price 	% Move 	52wk High 	52wk Low 	P/E 	Market Cap
AGG 	4.100 	9.04 	4.300 	1.500 	-0.75 	365,751,836
AQG 	3.400 	5.26 	3.450 	2.070 	15.53 	229,647,618
BDR 	0.315 	3.28 	0.360 	0.100 	-5.68 	332,346,275
DCN 	1.945 	0.00 	2.090 	0.377 	-20.47 	257,432,914
DRM 	0.980 	2.62 	1.000 	0.390 	7.87 	302,190,949
EVN 	1.940 	3.74 	2.140 	0.890 	29.89 	2,848,080,673
GOR 	0.477 	3.70 	0.540 	0.290 	-65.34 	333,899,145
KCN 	0.452 	6.35 	0.865 	0.220 	-0.75 	101,060,392
NCM 	18.955 	3.41 	19.110 	10.550 	31.80 	14,529,215,455
NST 	3.825 	4.22 	4.070 	1.805 	21.61 	2,295,800,530
NWF 	0.565 	0.00 	0.990 	0.555 	-58.25 	111,069,584
OGC 	4.390 	5.02 	4.410 	1.995 	22.91 	2,671,377,935
PRU 	0.570 	-6.56 	0.680 	0.270 	-17.33 	464,804,018
RMS 	0.420 	5.00 	0.455 	0.100 	5.85 	198,968,384
RRL 	2.895 	4.89 	2.930 	1.070 	16.98 	1,446,867,718
RSG 	0.970 	7.78 	0.982 	0.227 	-4.33 	622,335,504
SAR 	1.060 	0.95 	1.165 	0.335 	54.92 	848,847,250
SBM 	2.320 	3.11 	2.680 	0.380 	8.37 	1,148,637,858
SLR 	0.365 	5.80 	0.382 	0.125 	-2.32 	183,680,399
TBR 	5.620 	0.36 	5.620 	3.340 	19.35 	281,016,989

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/indices/share-listing/XGD/sandpasx-all-ordinaries-gold-sub-


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> $XGD constits are in uber bully mode ....time to take a pause ?
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/indices/share-listing/XGD/sandpasx-all-ordinaries-gold-sub-




a session early huh

multiple res's for gold futes .....must go down to get up, james


----------



## Joules MM1

$DX has been taking sells like  a chump....xau/$GOLD failing to make good on the action - soonaz dx tics up, sells will likely step on weak gold longs


----------



## Joules MM1

$XGD in pause mode, gold in retracement mode, longs would do well to pare back


----------



## Joules MM1

COT from timingcharts.com summary for Commercials/manager/small


----------



## Joules MM1

i'm the guy in the middle.....he's even got my glasses......pfft !


----------



## Joules MM1

retailers getting griftered.....


----------



## Joules MM1

if the dollar basket becomes impulsive it maybe time to size-up on STO's...otherwise small sells as we go....go ....go

the news cupboard is bare, a bonus for strictly price-action
but keeping an eye out for the  :bunny: who sells every news whip




$DX v $XAU


----------



## peter2

Gold is now at the lows of the last three days. Put your hard hat on.
Stuff a few of your bunnies in your hat.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Gold is now at the lows of the last three days. Put your hard hat on.
> Stuff a few of your bunnies in your hat.




so long as dx keeps the grind on i think the liquidity people will keep rotating south with plenty of price width further down way before any technical cues kick in.

top clients cmc cfd are 82% BTO (let's call them positional)
for 'all clients' 69% are BTO

would be good to see a decent shake out.....incidentally the $XGD looks like it's in mid-stream impulsive bid...few of these local goldies RRL/EVN etc are going off like trooper with not much goss at all

the best trends seem to attract the least amount of attention


----------



## Joules MM1

size up


----------



## Joules MM1

1260's 1:1 & 1261's 1:-1.272 ratio 
appear next likely levels that may hold a reaction


----------



## Joules MM1

probabilities: participation lifted, volume lifted, volatility lifted

ratio conforming

=trend to a minor degree (...ish...so far)


----------



## Joules MM1

how do you know youre a pirate? ya just argghh


----------



## Joules MM1

a third 1:1 ratio in a trend move is extremely rare

if the front month contract moves above 1265.74's then the 1:1 is broken and i'll be looking for a larger return swing before we can get to 1261's

if it breaks without making the basic previous 1:1 ratio then that adds weight to an idea of much larger downside targets


----------



## Joules MM1

applied to above post, for example


----------



## Joules MM1

another move within a larger move


----------



## Joules MM1

$XGD components woke up with a too-much-sugar hangover this morning....  surpriiiiise !




decision time for bulls, give-in to get-in lower ?


----------



## Joules MM1

looks like we have  a small swing-low in place, no positions open

suspect we'll rotate in a small range before making further lows with 1185's as target


----------



## Joules MM1

1271's represents 33% retrace of the current/recent downswing, it's also a two-swing 1:1 ratio of the most recent swing 5th may day/night sessions

if price can attain that level with $DX remaining bid then i'll look for another sell there, if we get impulsive bid thru that level then i'll take that as a cue for longs and look for clues that we have a significant swing low in place today (unlikely)

keeping at hand the idea that no inverse or parallel correlation to $dx is required


----------



## peter2

Nicely done yesterday. Trending with the trend and adding as you went along.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Nicely done yesterday. Trending with the trend and adding as you went along.




the scoop we're in today lacks any impulsivity, even so, better momentum on indexes

the long play is active upto 1271's i think, but, i dont want to waste a few days as more surprises downside than sudden bids i think.....still, you know how bunnies like to nibble


----------



## CanOz

This has got to be putting some pressure on the commodities and the currencies....The DX actually reversed a few ticks after filling the little gap back in Dec 2014

If the bullish wedge plays out, we have a target of 98.59. this would of course be dependent on the Fed maintaining the their accomodative yet steady pace of rate increases....


----------



## Joules MM1

we may have a small zone to play before a big foot steps on the little folk again


----------



## CanOz

I've got a few little areas that one might look for limit sell....once above 1279, i'm thinking of longs as shorts should get squeezed....

I'd like to see a fatter profile at these levels before a bit of short covering....the low is pretty much a 'poor' low, such as it should be revisited.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> I've got a few little areas that one might look for limit sell....once above 1279, i'm thinking of longs as shorts should get squeezed....




just got chopped out several times  ......small size and scale....song of the day

but......i win...i beat them eventually


----------



## CanOz

FWIW, CL is in the same 'boat'....bearish below 44.00


----------



## Joules MM1

bid couldnt even achieve a basic ratio length......rubbish lift inviting get-out trades and sell-side liquidity


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> FWIW, CL is in the same 'boat'....bearish below 44.00




CL has made a good move overnight, GC has rejected our first trade location but still looks to be balanced between 1270 and 1258.


----------



## Joules MM1

gotta go down to get up...with this much mess, won't be precious about any swings


----------



## Joules MM1

@CanOz



			
				Ned Davis Research said:
			
		

> ‏@NDR_Research May 11
> 
> $DXY near range bottom, but good news priced in. Questions stronger $USD view. See opps for US vs Int stocks







how much more can the USD stretch....history sez: a lot !


----------



## gartley

Just my  on Gold guys... 

I think we have descent move down in the offering with good R/R  Cheers


----------



## Joules MM1

$dx impulsive bid gold being hustled south


----------



## Joules MM1

Will Geisdorf said:
			
		

> ‏@wgeisdorf 14h14 hours ago
> 
> How quickly hedge fund sentiment can shift in 5 months...short dollar trade starting to get crowded! @NDR_Research
> 6 retweets 8 likes




#$DX


----------



## Joules MM1

big pull on local $XGD .....inline with a bull ....probably cyclical bull.....healthy retrace

gold v $DX




context context context

and relative size


----------



## Wysiwyg

Joules MM1 said:


> will look for this action to complete when the $XGD has completed its pullback....some ways to go, probably



The All Ords Gold Sub Index came within 18 points of old support and promptly rejected.

View attachment 66741


----------



## Joules MM1

Wysiwyg said:


> The All Ords Gold Sub Index came within 18 points of old support and promptly rejected.
> 
> View attachment 66741




thanks mate ...any chance repost?
(response to link: 
"Aussie Stock Forums Message
Invalid Attachment specified. If you followed a valid link, please notify the administrator")


----------



## Wysiwyg

Yep.


----------



## Joules MM1

Colin's kinda bullish....ya think


> If your capital is sufficient, why not take a three-way bet? Fill a third of your position at $1280, a third at $1300, and the other third on retracement that respects the new support level (at $1300).




k, fair enough

https://goldstocksforex.com/2016/05/18/golds-next-entry-point/


----------



## Joules MM1

the 1185 i listed as my retrace target is now adjusted ....selling is steady and consistant, no need for anymore fake lifts and whips, traders are either in for the ride or alighting at the wrong stop

two basic ratios 1:1 would have us reach min 1226's to 1129's zone for an attempt to bid up price which is likely to fail as the auction seeks to cull weak longs and attract weak shorts 

a better target is the 50% level  1175's of the whole lift from december 
then 1155's of the major impulsive leg,  with further reach at 1135's

a ratio that hangs over from the major downtrend maybe active, as unlikely as it is as we're in a new game it is still worth observing at 1159's (see daily view)

$HUI and $SILVER should confirm the move ....they appear to be sync'd 
already some $XGD comps are pulling back, after a strong hit last week, the betas should at least track sideways as they consolidate to move higher


----------



## Joules MM1

1217's has a harmonic thing for a bounce but looks more impulsive in the larger downswing and am playing the rules of continuation


----------



## Joules MM1

much of the travel has been done, but, not enough of the psycho-babble traversed as seen thru the cfd positional lens (front month contract via CMC) which (stamped) 78% BTO all clients

50% common levels


----------



## Joules MM1

ratios


----------



## Joules MM1

the stop is the price of education


----------



## Joules MM1

no biting to get thru the ratios overhead

(and no cheap edu either  ...yet



	

		
			
		

		
	
)


----------



## Joules MM1

i'd like a set-up for the GDP, please ....make it a double woodya


----------



## peter2

Whoa, you've stopped and reversed. I bet you crunched the gears. Are you heading into resistance?


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Whoa, you've stopped and reversed. I bet you crunched the gears. Are you heading into resistance?




oh yes and game on with $DX .....gdp's up tonight so there's that ....but my main boo is to the downside until we get retail to see the light at the end of the tunnel then the mainstay will be north

mixing the timeframes a tad here with dx in tow


----------



## Joules MM1

how many swings with a broken bat ?
lots..of bunting !


----------



## CanOz

A composite of the Comex contract...


----------



## peter2

So you're going down with the trend, waiting for price to hit the huge support level on the daily chart, maybe even push it a little lower so that retail will short the obvious breakdown and then join the smartie's buying from retail and ride it up to 1300?

While all this is going on, you're changing your mind twice a minute using the 30 second charts. What a plan.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> So you're going down with the trend, waiting for price to hit the huge support level on the daily chart, maybe even push it a little lower so that retail will short the obvious breakdown and then join the smartie's buying from retail and ride it up to 1300?
> 
> While all this is going on, you're changing your mind twice a minute using the 30 second charts. What a plan.




basically, two relative sizes and two contexts and if they get out of whack the gist is to get flat and close off the chart .....it can go pearshaped quickly in dist/accum zones and an excellent way to make donations  
as soon as that signal comes time to close up shop and wait for the furniture to shuffle itself


----------



## Joules MM1

the P2 Diet

$DX liked the taste of the GDP #'s than pm's


----------



## Joules MM1

view




Commitment of traders:
comparable studies for COT: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12971&page=16

based on previous studies of the size within the COT report, fair to say,
the positions do not reflect an immediate reversal sentiment, relative to the time taken to build the COT positions
lending to the idea we have much more to go to get south and shake the tree...


----------



## Joules MM1

locally $XGD comps follow suit with two large froth-wiping % days in two weeks reflecting the knee-jerk get out by hot money...... the back the back-bones still havent snapped for many retail holders? probably!




http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...sandpasx-all-ordinaries-gold-sub-.html?page=2


----------



## Joules MM1

dx


----------



## peter2

After tonight's low US NFP number and the subsequent moves in the markets. I can only imagine the following scenario...

Joules, Joules are you with us?... There's no pulse, get the paddles... everyone clear.... kerthunk.....
beep ... beep... beep. 

There's a pulse, its weak, but strong. Thank goodness he wasn't heavily short or we wouldn't have him back with us.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> After tonight's low US NFP number and the subsequent moves in the markets. I can only imagine the following scenario...
> 
> Joules, Joules are you with us?... There's no pulse, get the paddles... everyone clear.... kerthunk.....
> beep ... beep... beep.
> 
> There's a pulse, its weak, but strong. Thank goodness he wasn't heavily short or we wouldn't have him back with us.




man flu  missed the whole thing ! 
impressive move tho and if this is for real we'll see continuous impulsive trend all next week ongoing, otherwise, looking for signs of a trap ....commercials back off a fair way this week again with only 214k v 290k STO's at the peak of the daily swing

game on


----------



## Joules MM1

idea




data courtesy http://www.timingcharts.com/

the equality events at a peak in both sides of the COT contract ...not just any peak, a bear market bounce peak


----------



## kid hustlr

Thought u were long term bullish J?

interesting chart


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Thought u were long term bullish J?
> 
> interesting chart




yes, that long term maybe ending - may have ended ....the ratio idea has credibility with an impulisive 
dive below the box - it's a 1:1 inverted to the pause (caused by the GFC) of the altime high uptrend 
and i like the idea from both the ratio and the incredibly extreme positions of both major groups 
although the retail are not as gun-ho this time around
CMC's cfd front month contract showed 73% buys all clients this morning around the US cash open 
very little fear in the metals scene and most are seeing a new uptrend but i think we have an equal 
probability that we've complete a bounce in a very long term bear market

obviously, taking out the high of the ratio (box) negates the idea, even so, the enthusiasm and extreme 
sizing to be long and the Commercials opposing trade should be treated as a claxon

hoink


----------



## kid hustlr

Thanks J,

Keep your thoughts coming through.

The time frames I'm monitoring give no reason for me to be concerned in my (very small) gold stake. An impulsive downside move over the coming weeks would change this view however.


----------



## Joules MM1

@rvm 
some weekend dial turning


----------



## Joules MM1

referring to the third chart above, the try-angle try-hard thing should see bids protect 1315's nearterm as a typical measure, fall thru there opens break of the base and whoopsie stops n sells below


----------



## Joules MM1

hat-tip to @RVM__ for the find


----------



## Joules MM1

you could call that the grand buy-the-dip including BTC (buy to close)


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> referring to the third chart above, the try-angle try-hard thing should see bids protect 1315's nearterm as a typical measure, fall thru there opens break of the base and whoopsie stops n sells below




price rotated at 1316's forcing me to cover, i waited to see if the bid would be impulsive and it's not so the jury is out altho BTO at 23's is ok thus far, 1315's would still be an uncle point to keep this orthodox idea alive

by shifting the make-up of the try-angle and depending on the actual uspide exit the basic target is 1429's

the $DB and sudden swill of dumping has not shaken the players bid side, but, we have the COT to come tonight and not much else, no bigly news releases expected (maybe bailout for Douche-bag bank) and china pmi on the weekend, small longs for this until the upside is breached, previous post on 1:1 boxed ratio still applies


----------



## Joules MM1

a freebie, you're welcome

a 1:1 ratio from a compressed base, attracting instant momo and covering, hold the stop level, play a cover on previous swing high or add on the break with stop at 50% of the move up to the prev swing high


----------



## Joules MM1

to qualify the two trades in the above chart, the ratio and stops must be clear, as price get close to the prev swing high and as momemtum attracted momo players and covering, the trade is scaled, for example, a 100 contracts reduced to 25 at the high, on a break of the prev swing high, re-open 25 with a stop below half way of the whole phase, lift stop of the anchor trade to just below halfway

if the trade makes a false break that gives context to the larger pahse that brought about the smaller ratio trade and give "some" insight into the larger game at hand, about whether i traded an accumulation (ideally impulsive trend move inline with momo) or a congestive move (more of the same chop within the confines of a distribution) or long-build compression (a series of larger compressions that trap early sellers and gives easy supply to longs)

if the take off is in a series of impulsive smaller internal legs then a new levels can be sought for longs to be added with higher GTFO levels .......it is important to place higher GTFO levels as there are no markers for where Commercials will dump despite all the VPOC data and alike


----------



## Joules MM1

and part iii of iii

printing as i go, no hindsight


----------



## Joules MM1

using the smaller trades to size and position the larger move, more importantly, to build  context for ones own molded techniques


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1
2016-Oct-03 15:17:10
	getting very close to the uncle point on gold for longs, break down of 1310's prob bring a flood of STC and STO's

------------------


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## Joules MM1

when's a try-an-angle not a triangle

when it's a roll-over ......levels levels levels!




"....it's now or never, come hold me close, kiss me my darling .....aaarrrggghhhhh"

(from the album "songs of the lemming goldy")


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## Joules MM1

i see stocks like OVL are absolutely bonkas buybuybuy cos Jim Rickards and alike are spruiking them

@TraderJazzHands 20s21 seconds ago

$gold at base of tri-hard below 1306's exp sell-side liquidity to step in

particularly enjoyed this:



http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny


----------



## Miner

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 68324
> 
> 
> i see stocks like OVL are absolutely bonkas buybuybuy cos Jim Rickards and alike are spruiking them
> 
> @TraderJazzHands 20s21 seconds ago
> 
> $gold at base of tri-hard below 1306's exp sell-side liquidity to step in
> 
> particularly enjoyed this:
> 
> View attachment 68325
> 
> http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny




Hi Joules
I am afraid if you could provide some more flesh into your posting ? It looks like lot of information you gave just like Port Publishing does but little for the fools like me to understand.
I visited OVL and was surprised only a month or so back the company placed shares at 0.012 and today it is more than double. Strange behaviour and time.


----------



## Joules MM1

Julian ‏@TraderJazzHands 16s17 seconds ago

$gold makes the brk of lower triangle boundary, attracts STC's and  STO's (=attracts sell-side liquidity momo) new context/relative sizing


----------



## Miner

Joules MM1 said:


> Julian ‏@TraderJazzHands 16s17 seconds ago
> 
> $gold makes the brk of lower triangle boundary, attracts STC's and  STO's (=attracts sell-side liquidity momo) new context/relative sizing
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 68329




Good and thanks for clarification


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## Joules MM1

$gold leads to review now the context is established until #NFP's release weekly channel

note the sentence "typical return" refers to the level that would normally have hit if the compression within the triangle broke to the upside (a measured move) and is an orthodox level for price to return to before re-commencing the larger monthly/quarterly trend (down) ....in an earlier post i put up an idea that 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=12971&page=19&p=919313&viewfull=1#post919313
we may have seen a significant top and that is still in play, based on the break down of the compression triangle, clearly, by the smaller hourly trade set-ups the distribution is clear, without the benefit of any data other than the smaller trade moves in threes, that is, each move up is/has been in up/down/up overlapping choppy non-impulsive,  good hallmarks of 'more in the same falling direction' to come and eventually, where i demarked 1310's warning (lower triangle line) and 1306's to attract strong sell-side liquidity (sell to close + sell to open) is also en mode

context remains key, how the price action is framed at several levels determins the risk and sizing required

now the journey is to find the correct ratios and look for any signature that the move is a either a resumption of the larger bear market or a retracement in a much larger ABC to thru to the 1420-1430 zone ("typical return")

$DX on the bid constructively




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct7cQFZVUAQerco.jpg:large


----------



## Joules MM1

gold now eating way thru res in a smaller upleg in a Down-Up-Down sequence (first down completed, in start of the up part of this sequence) 

once completed we head for new lower lows probably to crack 1200's and lower


----------



## Joules MM1

edit, missing level on the above chart: there should be a ratio level at 1270's which is a 1:1 from the 1241 low, front month cfd contract

if price hits that level and sell impulsively i'll consider that a completion of the bounce as tawdry as it has been thus far it clearly says to me we are not at the foot of a new bid mountain, mole hill of bullsh!t maybe...


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> edit, missing level on the above chart: there should be a ratio level at 1270's which is a 1:1 from the 1241 low, front month cfd contract
> 
> if price hits that level and sell impulsively i'll consider that a completion of the bounce as tawdry as it has been thus far it clearly says to me we are not at the foot of a new bid mountain, mole hill of bullsh!t maybe...




Have enjoyed your comments J.

Following the big push several weeks ago I exited my smallish position in GDX and NCM, taking small loses on trades heavily in the money at one point.

Longer term I'm uncertain now, Several months back I had a bullish looking chart and confirming personal view about the positive carry of gold - this has since changed to an uglyish looking chart and a 'if i cant beat them join em mentality'. 

My strategy will be to do what I always do - wait for momentum and then look to enter.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Have enjoyed your comments J.
> 
> Following the big push several weeks ago I exited my smallish position in GDX and NCM, taking small loses on trades heavily in the money at one point.
> 
> Longer term I'm uncertain now, Several months back I had a bullish looking chart and confirming personal view about the positive carry of gold - this has since changed to an uglyish looking chart and a 'if i cant beat them join em mentality'.
> 
> My strategy will be to do what I always do - wait for momentum and then look to enter.




Nice little move from 19:22 ...


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## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> ....what I always do - wait for momentum and then look to enter.




thanks, Kid

the progress in this fake lift is as it should be despite the momo that's kicked in as we speak...the mess that has printed so far in the smaller bars attest to the current upswing since the 1241 swing low (front month cfd) being
part of a bounce within a larger leg downards to correct the move from the weekly low

i think, with your momo idea in mind, it's important to nail the context on several time frames and then see how that fits your technique....if you can bring your technique to fit the context and relative sizes of each play then determin whether moves are corrective or impulsive maybe that will balance your disposition ...takes practice for sure

clearly the $DX taking a pause in its own impulsive bid is adding to the background of the current hourly outlook for PM's ....and a rare occasion when the correlation is positive guidance, but, again, moves within moves require context.....there's no law that says $DX cannot go north (pick a bar time-size) and track with gold

chasing momo is fine so long as you are clear on context and exit points...

so we can be pretty clear on what a reversal south exit would lets look at a couple of northern exit targets
the first would prob be traders fave, the halfway....
halfway between the high prior to exiting the triangle to the 1241's low is 1292's 
halfway between the high daily swing high 1377/1241's  is 1308's

I like the 1292's level as it is also a ratio of one of the upswings within the triangle, giving a cluster if you like
the next ratio after that 1298's 

my suggestion is to be looking in the diary for a purging date, by that I mean a date where we suddenly get a strong buying surge on a news release as often occurred in many of the swings that led to daily highs in the weekly downtrend, prob ex FED or EU central, maybe BOJ or non-farms .....this is the key i think we should see....retail total conviction followed by quieter higher high that see commercials lean on....

I like ratios ...of themselves are endogenous .....they tend to have "better" cues and speak of construction so this current leg will be very interesting given that price can make new weekly bounce highs and still be part of a whole correction to gold/silver decadal bear market


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## Joules MM1

1272's offered an inverted ratio, a level to exit on if the lower time frame suggests a rotation which is current

price will probably take some time to rotate below this level before making new highs and suggests not re-entering unless the construct offers  a strong hint to get long again below 1272's

this is fairly typical of these upward corrections in a pro-regressive set


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## Joules MM1

1272's was retested and failed but no reversal, price range being probed, non-impulsive, but clearly there is liquidity that wants higher value

re-entry BTO at 1273's break (yellow) 
s. 67's at the low swing


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## Joules MM1

Asian session no help to establishing upward trend, adding to the background idea we are in a corrective lift

time is the factor at play here relative to the size of the swings being completed, let's call them hourly basis for the sake of this phase...time is being "treaded" to allow enough broken price discovery upside while major players do not want to commit and are probably more inclined to await a decent flush much lower before re-entering longs

going with the unfolding price, breaking the lower flagline sells, above the flagline bids ...


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## Joules MM1

https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat

today has been a good day to follow the money .....liquidity rotations


Joules MM1
2016-Oct-21 01:07:55
	and i'm short
Joules MM1
2016-Oct-21 01:07:39
	wow, someone leaned on gold
Joules MM1
2016-Oct-21 01:06:34
	gold may be on a return journey on a break of 1267's .....least ways i'll sell to open there


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1
2016-Oct-28 18:35:17
	i'm short gol at 69's s. 81's
Joules MM1
2016-Oct-28 18:33:07
	that'll back the call on gold
Joules MM1
2016-Oct-28 18:32:55
	sell signal for silver is 1754 front month cfd

----------------

the weak and overlapping lift in gold/silver are mere pauses in a bigger swing to correct the daily since the weekly lows

prospective areas for gold swings now lay in 1227's ratio to half zone 1210's (front month cfd)


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## Joules MM1

even when a lift is overlapping and dirty it doesnt mean print cannot become impulsive, in other words, all trades being balanced, dependent on your time view and trade cycle, the pressure as i type is up, ll other opinions notwithstanding....


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## Joules MM1

1194 appears next target, covering well underway, doubt for sellers + hope for buyers...buyer beware, it's all a fishing trip, happy new years


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## kid hustlr

How do you see the longer term outlook J? Still cautious of more downward pressure longer term?


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## barney

kid hustlr said:


> How do you see the longer term outlook J? Still cautious of more downward pressure longer term?




Also interested in Joules thoughts.  

FWIW I have the current pattern playing out "textbook" if it follows a couple more legs.  
The 2016 4:3 (Up/down ratio) has already completed with the bounce off the mid 1120 area currently in play.  

If it bounces anywhere up to 1190ish then has a final sharp dip into 1070ish I see potential for a sustained rally/reversal (maybe even years)  

If that pattern fails however and the 2016 lows are broken with little resistance it might get a bit untidy in the short term!  

Simplistic Chart below for future reference a few months from now.


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## Joules MM1

hi K, hi Barney

silver hasnt made the same retreat as gold but close enough, gold made at 76.4% retrace, enough for a call of the low...there's no reason the play cannot go as you've annotated, Barney,  i am inclined to think we have a good cause to think the low maybe in place for an attempt at another swing to the upside even if mostly driven by forced covering....we wont know for a cupla more days and much dependent on how the $DX plays in its current uptrend
we can take from the COT that we are at an extreme of sentiment from bull to bear and we are prob well passed any normal tipping point of sentiment (retracing 75%+ usually brings in a swing past the centre point of sentiment - borne out by the constant huge 80%+ of buyers in the cfd)

while the contracts size of Commercials are not as low as say the weekly swing low we can be pretty sure, relatively speaking, that given the recent daily run and the retracement the STO contract size and low participation are saying we're due a healthy attempt at another bounce high (i'm assuming the people bidding up the local $XGD components today at +6% agree)
the $HUI is on a belter impulsive bid too an a pass of 222's would stamp a new upswing

the thing is, dependent your T technique, you have to discern what levels imply what reach of price extremes you'll act on ....for me the two different things i am looking for is a subtle series of messages and ratios that hint we are in a swing north with specific larger levels to define my risk on, in this instance i am only looking for 1194's cfd given the time of the year and that we could be setting up for a hook to swing south (which would be ideal to stamp the bear mentality for retail) but as i say over n over, in a bounce, there is no law that says an overlapping price cannot go impulsively bid, so, that means, i need to play the smaller swings until price moves beyond the immediate series of ratios that tell a different story, signifying a different risk, to either group and what is the extent/probability of that risk .....keep in mind that ratios are like habits, or repeat cycles if you like; if/when a  liquidity group decides it has reached it's zone then that zone will usually have a relationship, the question is where and when as well as what level has been achieved and the opposing pressure will allow....so a price relationship is merely the point at which an intent has been reached for both groups, if that intent is based on an area of value, then, that value has a relationship.....

speaking of relationships, a gnarly thing for some maybe, is the time taken:
if we take the weekly xau swing low (the bear trend) and the most recent daily swing high july 6th (dependent your contract) and we project that to the recent daily swing low you should find we have also taken a time ratio of 1:.764 -  that is - from the L to H as 100% then to recent L x 76.4% of the time (with gold within a few cents of retracing in price, a 76.4% move too)

while time may not be  factor for some it should be observed that many major players who determine price trend are not currently at their desks.......so that begs the question of how much does time play and it should also be noted that most of the players who've determined the recent swing south may therefor have decided they prefer to wait for higher price values in which to sell, keeping in mind the old axiom sell strength buy weakness, swings within swings considering the last 5 years, the odds favour a new bounce attempt for those major players to exit their positions at better prices and not be assistant of price destruction...the low participation tends to hint at this and the sudden bid-side energy in the $HUI makes me think mid-tier money thinks this too......let the gators chomp on themselves to get the "bargains"

you may also find it interesting on a cyclical perspective we traveled a 55 week cycle from the weekly bear trend low to the recent daily swing low ....if you do a quick back test on the 55 week cycle you'll quickly find repetition, yes, not all are significant, however, enough repetition that says only a dumbass would ignore the constant occurrence (often referred to as coincidence)

in the bigger picture we still have very healthy deflation from a trade perspective, a positive feedback loop,  strengthening the US $, weakness in commods....more cycles within cycles..
+ the bond market is likely to re-attract liquidity away from metals, as guess (not my area of expertise) either way, liquidity attracted to metals is likely more a cycle of speculation than a trend of value

the question now is how quickly are managers likely to grab at the current bounce keeping in mind that many pundits think the US equity scene is over extended even tho we know that in a major bull leg over-extended is a piece of string...plenty of trend following managers will have reversed their longs so i'll be looking for any tells that theyre forced to cover

.....if an equity market is over-extended, rather than simply selling (no evidence that I can see in the 21 day and 13 week money flows) then we can also speculate that margined money will find its way into "bargains" such as gold may currently present with its sentiment being heavily beaten down compared to the first bounce-high...there's still a lot of easy money around, cheap debt to fuel more longterm head fakes.....

and keeping in mind that some of the best bounces, in hindsight, look nothing like the patterns you have in your saved files ....so levels mean so much more than predictions .....as they do most of the time i think

ha ! .....coffee ..


----------



## Joules MM1

for the sake of clarity, i am currently (today with wider time frame in mind) long spx and honkers

honkers should rip a new one upside from here:

@*rvm__* honkers passing prev swing at 21900 cash saying trains leaving BTO station, 21490's s.


----------



## Joules MM1

here's a good analogy of belief
$HUI x $XAU versus $GOLD

look at the extreme of liquidity swing (as a game of extracting value from an auction instrument) compared to the players who have a larger view to the upside in mind.....the question is always about who commits to which game the fastest, or, who stays committed and adds to that commitment in terms of the sense of value if not the yield of value

.....if the depth of the pullback is in the spot auction, the reactive hot money (far right), is matched by less than half in the "value" indexes, is it fair to pose the idea that the upside is a long way from finished?

Is it fair to say that the slow money has a stronger commitment than the spot suggests?


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## kid hustlr

Cool thoughts J, just what I needed to read early on a Saturday morning!

I like the comparisons between the indexes and the spot, if I'm running money I'd buy the share exposure first then drive the spot. so much more bang for your buck(y)

I lifted the offer on NCM on xmas eve - I'm still not sure of the long term trend in spot itself but to me a bounce for the like of GDX and NCM from here would suggest at worst a retest of the low and months/years of continuing to build a 'base' or at best a clean re-test of the lows with huge upside potential if the eventual run higher was to occur.

Of course shorter term this could simply be a pull back and the last 6 months of action are still in a down trend but I've kind of accepted I'm going to have to have a few goes at this one if I really want to capture what I perceive a really big long term trend (at some stage!)

EDIT: USD concerns are very valid - I can't see gold running with the USD in its current and future state.


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## kid hustlr

Pictures


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## Joules MM1

bids come in and halts an attempt to sell, set levels for risk


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## Joules MM1

second chance at breaking the high fails and volume came in and down we go...


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## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> I lifted the offer on NCM on xmas eve - I'm still not sure of the long term trend in spot itself but to me a bounce for the like of GDX and NCM from here would suggest at worst a retest of the low and months/years of continuing to build a 'base' or at best a clean re-test of the lows with huge upside potential if the eventual run higher was to occur.




Just to follow through here - bird in the hand and all of that I'm going to sell half on open this morning for a pretty tidy profit and then bottom draw the rest with stop at b/e.

Even a blind squirrel can find a nut


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## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> .. I'm going to sell half on open this morning for a pretty tidy profit and then bottom draw the rest with stop at b/e.
> 
> .



nice

1194's front month contract has next signif hurdle


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## Joules MM1

1194's hit and small retreat, action suggests 1220's next target, lots of little battles going on, suggest momo thru 1220's says the bids have won

tiny size game thus far


----------



## Joules MM1

most of the neg sentiment has been washed away on a 98 point hike from a messy bid at 1122's

are we done already (bid exhaustion)?


----------



## Joules MM1

pays not to get precious in bounces ...


----------



## CanOz

Go Gold!


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## Joules MM1

beware the fake lift


----------



## peter2

@Joules MM1  Glad to see your not hibernating with the other gold bears. Gold has been pretty quiet in spite of the political tension. 

I like CanOz's trade. Price might to his 2nd limit sell, even in a corrective move up.


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## Joules MM1

Peter 

i suspect gold is readying for a rip-yer-face rocket

the tell-tale sell in local $XGD components showing how spineless xau stockholders are...someones buying what's being sold...


----------



## peter2

Interesting, are you planing to sink a US aircraft carrier?


----------



## Joules MM1

still not seeing the big continuation release for gold to head higher....typical game is for price to make a low zone and wait for a news release to pull the grenade on shorts like non-farms or ism or oh here it is in the special people section under the heading "why would i tell people in advance what i'm going to do ?" and then do exactly that ....hmmmm
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-senate-idUSKBN17S0B9


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## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Interesting, are you planing to sink a US aircraft carrier?




i would if its en rout to the north pole while actually training with the aussie navy...lol

1256's front month contract looks a nice swing long entry or an impulsive break above 1279's

"Former Prime Minister Paul Keating says he reminded a US admiral that all sinking ships go “Glug, glug, glug’’. "


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## Joules MM1

cruddy bid
30m and 3m chart


----------



## CanOz

Got stopped out before the news, which was fine by me, but thanks for the heads up on the fake out, i moved my stop up before i went to bed!


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## CanOz

Gold gettin beaten like the red headed step child.......


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## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Gold gettin beaten like the red headed step child.......




this time, beware the hook-sell .....time for a turn-around.....jack be nimble


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## Joules MM1

BTC sell at 1256 front month contract ....if this fails to hold the halfway is 46's


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## Joules MM1

on behalf of red-headed step children, BTO 55's stop 54


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## Joules MM1

another swing opportune moment


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## CanOz

Still sticking up for that poor little red head I see....


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## Joules MM1

looks like freckles is about to get b!tchslapped ....once below the level adios muchachooooaahz


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## Joules MM1

breathing deeply on this one !


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## Joules MM1

@peter2 ....surrogate?

cot remains in bullish interpretation for mine based on previous commercials positioning at the same price swing extents
as a strong structural precursor $silver offers a key view and i suspect the build within is now complete



	

		
			
		

		
	
 :


----------



## kid hustlr

Hi J,

Gold has been to these levels so many times before - I wonder if this is finally the time it will run. What has been evident is the strong performance of the gold stocks (NCM aside which impacts the GXD heavily). Suggests to me there may be something at foot. I too prefer bullish however which ever way it goes from here I'd expect it to be swift:
- Either a new range and paradigm is upon us (SPX signalling?)
- Or the longs are long and wrong again up here leading to a big flush lower and a big breakdown of a number of the goldies


----------



## Joules MM1

certainly more ticks on the bid box .....i suspect this is the last hoorah, a last leg up that'll develop into a good looking head fake which would require more than a mere hunj to attract the retail and managers...as high as 1650ish but it would have to be on burners and hey why not
..along with CL which looks like a convincing blow off is due, going be commercials in that rout ripping the heads off late party goers

local $xgd daily looks constructive bid, 13 week money flow coming back into + territory 
looking (back to jan '16)at a longer perspective both $hui/$xau appear to be flagging for more upside
+ 13 week money flows (Twiggs) into locals SFR, RSG, GOR as tiny samples

giddy up!

http://timingcharts.com/
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15


----------



## greggles

Gold is looking bullish tonight. Ready to smash through recent highs at A$1,710?


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> certainly more ticks on the bid box .....i suspect this is the last hoorah, a last leg up that'll develop into a good looking head fake which would require more than a mere hunj to attract the retail and managers...as high as 1650ish but it would have to be on burners and hey why not
> ..along with CL which looks like a convincing blow off is due, going be commercials in that rout ripping the heads off late party goers
> 
> local $xgd daily looks constructive bid, 13 week money flow coming back into + territory
> looking (back to jan '16)at a longer perspective both $hui/$xau appear to be flagging for more upside
> + 13 week money flows (Twiggs) into locals SFR, RSG, GOR as tiny samples
> 
> giddy up!
> 
> http://timingcharts.com/
> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15




J,

you write in hieroglyphics.

Are you suggesting a final shove lower before we push through the upper key resistance level (I tend to agree???!!)


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> J,
> 
> you write in hieroglyphics.
> 
> Are you suggesting a final shove lower before we push through the upper key resistance level (I tend to agree???!!)




ha!

in the context of monthly bear market ....we havent finished the current up-down-up cycle to complete a bounce of the 2011 bear phase


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> J,
> 
> you write in hieroglyphics.
> 
> Are you suggesting a final shove lower before we push through the upper key resistance level (I tend to agree???!!)




additionally: in the nearterm, ratios within $silver that i am using as surrogate has two distinct ratios which are now calling on the integrity of the technique, it is an unequivocal signal either side of the tri based on both $silver and $gold previous patterns and the ratios give the construct specific levels within the structure

bronze H1 > L1 = to green H1 > blue L1 (all bronze to green high thru blue low)
green H1>L1 = blue H1>L1 (all green to all blue, a ratio of 1:1 or A=C within AxBxC down-up-down)

these for front month cfd connies, all hours pricing, rarely ever wrong when the structure is clearly defined
so rarely-ever implies above the tri is a break-out to go long, below the tri is an at the offer break-out

as is best i can explain it, obviously there are smaller swings within swings so it is important to define plays based on the structure, meaning, added to this is an orthodox listing (AxBxCxDxE)of the moves where the final move (E) may not move beyond the previous larger swing (C) and it iself is usually a ratio of 50-62%
and those two lengths keep the context and breaking that context would be a strong clue that the tri structure is still developing re-assigning risk levels

out of these structures there is an energy release, not a pop, more a consistant impulsive set of swings in the larger direction of the break

longs on both instruments with specific risk levels for sizes and ratios, if the larger silver leg upwards is merely a large 1:1 ratio (which i doubt) then the target is 21.88's, rather than saying it's the target as a prediction, it is a target as a measure in that it is a major third-largest swing, therefor it adheres to the regime of that size


----------



## peter2

Heck I had to log in again just to see Joules's charts. The detailed explanation went over my head. 

My monthly gold chart is bullish with a BO level >1370. There's and ascending triangle, a series of HLs off the low. But it hasn't broken out yet. 

My daily chart shows price in a corrective move that's close to completion near 1300 (50% level).


----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## rnr

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 86443




Hi Joules,

I have noticed that you have posted charts depicting divergence before and it has got me wondering where you initiate trades on this basis.


----------



## Joules MM1

rnr said:


> Hi Joules,
> 
> I have noticed that you have posted charts depicting divergence before and it has got me wondering where you initiate trades on this basis.




with divergence of any kind i am looking for supporting evidence of either momentum or directional strength, in this instance there maybe a symmetry and the divergence supports price reaching that symmetry (same size price length as the previous swing)...when placing a trade on a divergence by the time the divergence has any semblence of confirmation the risk is usually distorted, risk has moved to wide to be valuable


i dont trade divergence mostly as it is a hindsight confirmation and impractical to trade in foresight, impossible to trade in hingsight

with the $dx the hindsight divergence favours the current swing against the larger trend, anecdotally, as a countertrend swing, confirming more of the same when the swing is complete, as the move was not preceded by a puke or a reverse build (in other words i am not seeing a bookbuild type series, like a small congestion zone where money thinks it's time to buy and gather easy supply, followed by a puke)
$dx appears to be trending well which supports the upside for PM's

ok, so the real problem with divergences and how come most traders get caught is very simple and takes time to read without other data points, it is the function of headfakes to assign an emotive logic to the idea that a trend is about to have a substantial rotation based on a divergence, simply because, a head fake is a higher or lower price movement when the trade activity has a shift in the idea of value but only by the group involved in that period of time which may or may not be by design, however, it is fair to say that to say that when i trade based soley on the basis of price lengths and not reason i think the price length occured then i am less likely to find myself trapped, in this instance, $dx is saying while it is a better idea to stay out of the gold longs it's a safer bet NOT to open a short on gold as $dx has already proven its trend (at least shown a clean series of L/H's and L/L's) and recently i've been less active on PM's due to the top quality moves in most indexes

the larger challenge with divergences (regardless of setting) is that they offer no actual or definitive context, only the trader can provide the context, to which the obvious danger is 50/50 in applying correctly or incorrectly, resulting in increased risk on decreased risk...


----------



## Joules MM1

just to be clear

trading on a divergence and/or convergence is actually not possible

when price bars print there is always divergence or convergence of some degree, then we may or may not see that D/C more often due to its size ......that alone tells me how unreliable these things are regardless of the indicia construct

if its true that price needs to print for a trader to know if a trade is correctly placed and price is always printing in the present, then, it is fair to say, divergence/convergences are at best a widening of risk and of course they are not measurable, in the present, so if theyre not measurable until they are complete (we say theyre no longer useful) then it is also fair to say they have little to do with what price is printing rather they are supportive of price movement in that direction the trade is already open to, only because we say so


----------



## peter2

Gold long: Bought 1319.70, iSL at 1314.5. (TR 5.2 x 100USD = 520USD)
4H pinbar reversal, shallow PB and bought the BO of the UK session. 
T1 = 1325, T2 = 1330.5.
Will I be able to hold on if price is on the way to 1359? 


The first and important test is staying above yesterday's high. If it can't do that then it's not ready yet in spite of Putin's nuclear claims.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Gold long: Bought 1319.70, iSL at 1314.5. (TR 5.2 x 100USD = 520USD)
> 4H pinbar reversal, shallow PB and bought the BO of the UK session.
> T1 = 1325, T2 = 1330.5.
> Will I be able to hold on if price is on the way to 1359?
> View attachment 86462
> 
> The first and important test is staying above yesterday's high. If it can't do that then it's not ready yet in spite of Putin's nuclear claims.




@peter2  your basic abc down-up-down has been achieved and a tosh ongoing on the restest of that low, 
local xgd components fearing the worst are selling this arvo too


----------



## Joules MM1

longs on have the strength, just...which is enough!


----------



## Joules MM1

with so many cfd/equity players looking for more the law of weak supply/ weak accumulation is the game as per the overlaying chop upwards which is likely to become impulsive as early shorters have to cover


----------



## Joules MM1

risk levels


----------



## Joules MM1

when's an arb not just an inv correlation?


----------



## Joules MM1

cue the benny hill theme


----------



## Joules MM1

sometimes theyre a slug sometimes i get slugged and then sometimes toot-toot!




scaled for the weekend


----------



## Joules MM1

suspect xgd components red tomorrow

fridays news  game to suck in longs ?


----------



## Joules MM1

in the front month cfd 1302's reps an important decision level, tech speaking, as the simple ABC that led to that swing low will become something detrimental when broken to the health of longs who are, more and more, expecting a bull run ...of course, as we've seen a lot of congestion (conjecture of value) there's no law of supply and demand that says we cannot rotate in this area for a few more days/weeks to come espesh with the $dx now you see me now ya dont 

- be bendy!


----------



## Joules MM1

flipflop

there are some minute ratios inside the play yet this is the dominant one that got a rejection of the downswing....


----------



## Joules MM1

decision time, bulls are going to run out of excuses pretty soon, COT not extreme by either camp still favouring the upside (more of the same in the nearterm)

into the area of the reversal call based on measures that say we now confirm a major downswing or a continuation to conclude the weekly upswing (that corrects the the monthly downtrend)

or do we.....or is it!! ....levels levels levels !!


----------



## Joules MM1

what-if target if todays move travels back thru 19's for 
an initial break-out then an initial thrust target (100% time x price)1388-90 opens


----------



## Joules MM1

still requiring a break of downside rotations at 1325 cfd (all hours front month connie)


----------



## Joules MM1

in the above chart i had a 'sizeable' pos which i've culled to a tiny due the lack of impulsive momo
and the sluggish upside while still holding enougn structure to be framed as impulsive hasnt followed thru...yet.....this opens the (pattern) to the small probability that the wedge is not yet complete
..so breaking the wedge now would  be a pretty good call to re-assert size..meanwhile sell on indexes are looking pretty good


----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## Joules MM1

like a freshly plucked chicken i didnt hold overnight, nice to see a standard ratio did hold (ha, pun!)
looking for a constructive if non-conformist break-out of the wedge boundary thingy


----------



## Joules MM1

front month all-hours cfd contract breaks boundary


----------



## Joules MM1

PM's on the pump - who's buying ?

a what-if for $silver


----------



## Joules MM1

gold  x 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 commercials

just because retail group is not chasing like it has before doesnt mean they arent chasing altogether (see crypto) .....what that probably says is that credit debt liquidity is back in full swing and it has to go somewhere, regardless the fundamental arguments about the validity of the instrument it is still just a vehicle of money applied to make money, the bigger fool theory doesn dissipate after a contraction it merely requires (cycle) time to restart and even more time to be recognised


----------



## Joules MM1

flagging/channelling ? sluggish uptrend


----------



## Joules MM1

price was rejected at the flag high, however, as you can see using a previous (first) swing south we have a clear and clean ratio that suggests 
breaking the ratio low will confirm the flag low is a likely target
breaking the ratio high will confirm bids will have to chase supply and up we go

i am favouring more upside as the small lift off this rejection move has already exceeded the analogous idea (that is, we've already exceeded the price length relative to the bounce price length within that previous ratio square)

no pos held a posting, looking for larger swings 
orange lines rep channel/flag


----------



## Joules MM1

no need to be too @Modest ......pepe$'s are on spesh today

roger roger


----------



## Joules MM1

30 mins later all closed, silver getting pummeled .....messy


----------



## Joules MM1

fake out .....had a poz on USD/JPY which did same thing (STO) 
so clearly we're rotational in a flaggy thing but we can now consider that a 
top formation is in process, too


----------



## Joules MM1

1 of 2

$silver - silver getting to the point .....how much of a leading indicator for USD/XAU ?





Joules MM1 said:


> silver getting pummeled .....messy


----------



## Joules MM1

2 of 2

$USD ($DXY) is dropping quickly in the retail cfd longs to 62% upto recently averaging 78-82% longs

clearly the buck is playing  a major role in directional swings and causing tighter zones to build
I am also playing the long side of usd/jpy based on this (107.7's scoping)

sentiment is quickly falling for xau/usd so we have a some majic moments of mayhem prob within tomorrows NFP release ......


----------



## Joules MM1

#cot #xau $gold


----------



## kid hustlr

Gold been very choppy this week J. Obviously depends on time frames you are trading however based on the above I get the impressino you like short to mid term longs in gold?


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Gold been very choppy this week J. Obviously depends on time frames you are trading however based on the above I get the impressino you like short to mid term longs in gold?




i'm an old school follower of the idea that a trader should contextualise all time frames to build a directional sense and play within the swings as they occur ......this morning provided some very good swings within different time frames, by that i mean, i can allow for price to go outside of my range based on the scope that the larger swing sits within a boundary tolerance ...this isnt anything new......there are times when the chop is very smooth to read, not easy to read in forsight, rather, the risk is easier to take and return per trip lower but higher number of trades.....so i'm looking for the moment when a larger "release" swing is printing...that also requires watching other liquidity (for example how the usd/jpy which i've switched to a larger sell rotation position after the NFP's as it was stuck at a strong 1:1 ratio within the high part of itse down channell, but, i'm not precious on it either)

flexibility to frames and swings within (and thru) those frames, yeah

i do a lot of screen captures so maybe tomoz i'll compile some of this mornings with a commentary
i know a lot of people find i talk in code...so maybe a few series maybe useful, frankly screen caps would be better than video mostly due to amount of time taken from trade to trade

i think intent plays a big role and to see different tiers of intent thru the print is important, 
...... Trader FT71"what's the auction trying to achieve?"


----------



## CanOz

Short term bullish....at least. But like all markets lately, very US dependant for decent moves. Otherwise choppy and less likely to see longer time frame players intervening it feels.


----------



## Joules MM1

as promised

if you think of these trades from your sizing then you wont mind the sizing i use, ok, thanks!
the point of this mornings transactions is to get the bigger picture, hence, the reason i mostly post here on  strong impulsive moves that i think are borne of decent construction or energy release rather than actual day trades, this mornings series are (as always) to get two things: context and relative size

being human i tend toward some diatribe too...relax, you'll get over it 

pose a question with the chart(s) specific if they lack sense or reason you think they need
and remember, like all healthy diets, 
its the stuff left out that is often more important than the stuff put in!!

there are many more than the 29 jpegs here but these mostly cover this mornings transactions
key inputs are usd/jpy, silver and $dx for context and liquidity ideas

context and relative size .....keep it mind.....












the game afoot is the non-farms .....but how are the payers using the release to position, is there any significance within this region, how does it affect the channel, how can i tell if size is at play ?

5 of 29 jpegs


----------



## Joules MM1

the above charts show i had downside signals to sell on then await the NFP release and see where the energy goes......it didnt go anywhere.....a set-up for the rest of the session basically......ptuh!


----------



## Joules MM1

so....this is like walking thru mud for you the rest of the way....youre seeing a series of thought jibberjabber on navigating lots of tiny trades.....oh, did i say this was for the sake of context and realtive size within the bigger channel....yeah, reckon i did 

please note the time frames change (top left corner) i am regularly moving my time scope 
there's always "a" signal within all time  frames .....in construction terms all time frames carry similar signals of *relative size* and *provide context* at all scales in all time frames 

.....onwards:


----------



## Joules MM1

context .....this one is important at the moment as the usd/jpy just hit and rotated below a strong 1:1 ratio that exists much higher in the charts downchannel ......this is typically a good construction signal that i should expect more of the same, meaning, odds of betting on downside are much higher probability than odds of upside bets, that being true, its an indicator to consider as a correlation (if you like)


----------



## Joules MM1

that 's 12 to 19 of 29 jpegs  ...... (something witty goes in here, but my heads just fried typing out the thoughts from the previous sesh!!)

onwards:


----------



## Joules MM1

20 to 25 of 29


----------



## Joules MM1

last ones


----------



## Joules MM1

the yellow lines all correlate with previous price lengths in the same direction, they offer an initial idea of support and more importantly they offer an idea of how price is travelling, by that i mean, has anything changed in the liquidity coming thru the instrument, has the context changed, if these levels are being taken out how are they being taken out, have they lost their relevance to the ideas i thought they offered

of the 3 three yellow lines the first should hold, it did, it didnt have to as the second one was so close sometimes that second one is the "active" one ....that means price is at making swings relative to when players find them of value in either buy-side liquidity or sell-side liquidity

the third lower line is a defintive nearterm game changer, it tells me my upside views are wrong, maybe my larger context is wrong, it's likely a GTFO of longs and GTFI for STO's

the point of ratios is to provide balance not to be aggressive.......so theyre levels of risk and levels of permission to engage risk, they may also ask to consider risk size due to their own relative size 

ratios are of themselves contextual they do not exist or print in isolation

traders think they trade in isolation .....they do not ......no one ever trades in isolation, the concept is dumb

if that is true then it is true that the auction has its own construct and intent

to some degree this must exist to be seen and as the auction is dynamic ratios are dynamic too


----------



## Joules MM1

channel break? session close above and a retest of 1366 would likely end the recent congestion and release energy upwards


----------



## Joules MM1

did we retest the channel/flag roof already?

speed of price swings suggest not just indexes in distribution, both xau/silver dirty upswings suggest selling into strength, are we simply shaking off weak longs?

the simple abc retrace (a=c at 100%) needs to hold ...maybe we're still dependent on our friend the DX bear


----------



## Joules MM1

failure to get thru the 1366 prev swing high and drag back inside the channel prob requires another rotation series before higher highs .......still a smaller probability that a larger high has already been printed and the instrument is rolling over ....


----------



## Joules MM1

lots of scales now that we've come back inside the channel and held below the 1366 front month high
if there is a correlation active here the usd/jpy should head south as xau/usd heads north and until the structure of pricing says so, scaling appears best technique


----------



## Joules MM1

a rotation, with momo ......and usd/jpy has a nice sell too ..


----------



## Joules MM1

in real time posting charts is a challenge esp as i have some plays on xjo and spx indexes

so far nothing more than a wash it seems ....few want to go thru price discovery? probably...


----------



## Joules MM1

crossing the streams $silver #bias #extremes #lookatrecentextremes


----------



## Joules MM1

part 2

$gold $GC #COT nothing yells out other than the same message from last weeks print
$dx stuck in a zone, usd/jpy tried to break out above the longterm channel but came back inside again, no clear signal, probably means more of the same larger trend direction (down)


----------



## CanOz

Gap up on Monday, only thing left to do is decide, based on remainder of information left to evolve, whether other not to fade the gaps.


----------



## kid hustlr

The yellow metal has been on the nose for a little bit - testing the bottom of the range. With AUD at a key support it's worth looking for a long in gold imo.

I don't follow it closely however I've seen other markets where price action in the out of hours gives away the tell. I wonder if the funny business this morning marks a mid term low in Gold? Quite the 'gotchya'.


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> The yellow metal has been on the nose for a little bit - testing the bottom of the range. With AUD at a key support it's worth looking for a long in gold imo.
> 
> I don't follow it closely however I've seen other markets where price action in the out of hours gives away the tell. I wonder if the funny business this morning marks a mid term low in Gold? Quite the 'gotchya'.
> 
> View attachment 87076




USD is killin it .....USD/JPY on a tear ......best i could get was to take usd longs based on momo breaks but tuff gig playing xau/usd

going straight down 1290 sees the base of that flag/channel thing .....stuck in that big range


----------



## Joules MM1

risk defined for a rotation


----------



## Joules MM1

silver is warning of a break-out downside out of this longwinded triangle thing with a target sub 13's

USD keeps punching higher so i suspect gold will at least rip into the underside of the channel/zone sub 1290's and as that is a fraction of the silver length then 1290's is prob a generous target from a trapped bulls point of view...if youre a bull as opposed to a trader, then, maybe, setting your levels and close the screen is a better option as currently the upside buzz is probably the wrong buzz


----------



## Joules MM1

silver rotates at the tri low, bids hit both PM's as $dx stalled

usd and gold  may climb together
@explod good news for bulls, at least the levels as clear for transaction ideas


----------



## Joules MM1

triangles are typically continuation signals, lots of bullish convo around, PM stocks on the lift,
traders need stick to levels rather than chat, using silver as a lead, if the low of the tri goes then the momo sells will allow little time to exit longs as tri thrusts are usually swift and gold will go along


----------



## Joules MM1

gold n silver need rectum rocket north
the construction is utterly naff for an uptrend
again, any break of the low on both will bring momo get-outs and i'll be  STO


----------



## kid hustlr

J,

Any views why asx gold stocks are rallying given gold price action


----------



## Joules MM1

this is never straight forward, based on the idea someone is selling what the other account is buying you have to ask are prices being bid up or marked up (maybe case by case money flows are an indicator for this)
the hui and xau charts are both a mess and look to me like still basing and in general there's a lot of bullish tone in conversations for PM's, not conducive to a major upleg as theyre rarely seen until theyre well underway and most international equities market have not rolled and gone to hell so

since both metals have hit these low zones neither have made clear constructive signals that theyre now bid so we may get an uh-oh moment next few days

the retails are bidding xgd stocks and there's a  lot of traders playing them locally and i guess that the recent daily upleg in the xjo maybe a little less invested and more chased meaning people are getting trapped ......metals can move divergently to metal stocks for very whacky psycho reasons


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11


----------



## Joules MM1

playin the zone
2 goes and sellers sold into strength


----------



## Joules MM1

sitting on a sell in this chop, if price goes to revisit the lows in both silver/gold then it is unlikely that the lows are going to hold simply due to the lack of impulsivity, lack of longside commitment todate since those lows, persistant bid in USD is a big key currently, i thought gold and the dollar would climb together for a while but just no support for metals....silver has a key signal trapped inside this focused triangle thing so if the bottom breaks on that then all the desks focused on technical triggers will bang the f' out it same goes pretty much for the side channel/flag thing on gold
but beware fake breaks if the momo lacks


----------



## Joules MM1

two things are alluded to here
first that the double ratio of equality suggests a low swing is in place so price can restart an ascention within the confines of the larger sideways channel
and two, that, if the low presented fails it'll be a good fail, in other words, i think it'll provide directional clarity yet still require a clean structure to prove a sell is underway and that the larger upside is done for now




the two yellow lines represent the 1:1 ratio where both (A)=(C) and A=C
simple 3's, down-up-down
the square below the yellow line is my pending STO w stop at 12's

current 2 STO's are scaled out


----------



## kid hustlr

I could be reading too much into tings J but interesting to see some of the market leading XJO gold stocks turn around today on a bit of volume also


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> I could be reading too much into tings J but interesting to see some of the market leading XJO gold stocks turn around today on a bit of volume also




yeah, the 'interesting' part is we have no way of clearly knowing what money went into xgd's and which money went out...pretty sure theyre not the same accounts.....


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> I could be reading too much into tings J but interesting to see some of the market leading XJO gold stocks turn around today on a bit of volume also




and we may get some idea by inspection of (Twiggs) money flows over next few days


----------



## InsvestoBoy

kid hustlr said:


> J,
> 
> Any views why asx gold stocks are rallying given gold price action




Stop looking at the price of gold in USD, start looking at the price of gold in AUD, which is the currency that ASX gold stocks transact in.


----------



## Joules MM1

InsvestoBoy said:


> Stop looking at the price of gold in USD, start looking at the price of gold in AUD, which is the currency that ASX gold stocks transact in.




that's a good point

what may also be a good point is: that everyone else is looking at gold the same way, not dollar or exchange-rate adjusted and not the smartest way, but, still, how they look en masse is how they look

its what makes a market from an auction activity point of view


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Joules MM1 said:


> how they look en masse is how they look
> 
> its what makes a market from an auction activity point of view




and you can see from the auction of ASX gold stocks that the bids and offers are from people who "en masse" look at the gold price in AUD because they know that buying a gold stock is buying it's future stream of cashflows, which are AUD denominated.


----------



## Joules MM1

reverse swing


----------



## Joules MM1

scratched effort ......rat wheel requiring a lot of oil


----------



## Joules MM1

watching silver for a follow-thru on a break of the lower side of the tri


----------



## Joules MM1

what's another word for momentum ?

slippage


----------



## peter2

"momentum slippage" must be the latest thing.
I got slugged 17 pips of slippage last night on one of my exit orders on EURNZD. The overnight data didn't get anywhere near my exit price. I wanted to keep the trade on overnight to see how much swap I was going to get paid. Closed me out at 22:00:00 right on EOD broker time, so no swap paid. Very smelly.

Sorry, looks like Gold is going back to 1300. I'll be waiting for another bullish setup. One of them will get me into the next huge gold rush.


----------



## Joules MM1

back with the xau sell today after getting pummelled easily last night 

USD got the mighty funk on at only 42% retail longs in cfd

"_Everybody's got_ plans... until they get hit." - Mike _Tyson_


----------



## Joules MM1

plenty of longside bias for xau and little attraction to USD basket ....contrarian picks have been good

even so the simple abc's have offered strong small time-frame rotations and none of this has offered a clear absolute direction.....not yet anyways......the levels remain clear on trend for mine


----------



## fiftyeight

Joules MM1 said:


> plenty of longside bias for xau and little attraction to USD basket ....contrarian picks have been good




What are your thoughts on why? People long gold and have to been stopped out, a break below 1300 could change this. 

I would of thought break out traders would still be holding dxy to skew the numbers to net long. Or is 40% long high over the medium term?


----------



## Joules MM1

looking at the above chart you see the ratio has a spot-on rotation but it's rubbish and looks like part of the sell-side construct, no ones home, no bid. bleh n meh, the signal is there so it gets taken but because of the construct i have the size uber small with sized pending sell below....if it looks like 30 mins of coffee then its not worth the wait and better to scratch the open bet


----------



## InsvestoBoy

peter2 said:


> I got slugged 17 pips of slippage last night on one of my exit orders on EURNZD..




In late 2009 I knew very little about the markets and was long 1 mini lot (i.e. $100,000) of EURNZD on margin with a nearby intraday stop.

The trade moved in my position for a little while, then some news or other came out. The trade quickly moved against me and triggered my stop, but my broker could not exit the trade, there was no liquidity at all. When liquidity finally returned, the cross was...a lot... lower and the spread to exit was something more than 30 pips.




17 pips of slippage is nothing when trading EURNZD


----------



## Joules MM1

sell-side liquidity is running hot ...

gold has already taken out the longs security blanket 1302's front month contract and silver another 
14-16c to break the lower tri shape to confirm the gold move, typically breaks either side of a tri lend to 100% time x price thrusts and find momo sells ......


----------



## Joules MM1

using #silver as a the more squeezed the whippier velocity kicks in (either side) larger swing direction is prob less fuzzy thru the silver lens


----------



## kid hustlr

InsvestoBoy said:


> Stop looking at the price of gold in USD, start looking at the price of gold in AUD, which is the currency that ASX gold stocks transact in.




IB,

I wanted to come back to you on this. Look at XAU/AUD since your post and look at the price of the gold miners in that time.

I completely agree long term fundamentals drive price but short term there's definitely an aspect of demand supply /, p/e re-rating / other which provides trading opportunities outside of the fundamentals

at least in my view?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

kid hustlr said:


> IB,
> 
> I wanted to come back to you on this. Look at XAU/AUD since your post and look at the price of the gold miners in that time.
> 
> I completely agree long term fundamentals drive price but short term there's definitely an aspect of demand supply /, p/e re-rating / other which provides trading opportunities outside of the fundamentals
> 
> at least in my view?




Hello, I don't disagree that plenty of other factors can drive the price too, especially for the smaller players and depending on where they are in the life of a mining company. 

But in the specific question you asked was why is it rallying when the "gold price" action is so poor, was obviously attributable to looking at the wrong "gold price"


----------



## Joules MM1

xau cfd ..using silver as a marker


----------



## Joules MM1

this looks p-weak, price races into what looks like a headfake, both charts show price held at previous swing ratios, typical of trending action (down)

still prefer the upside both instruments ...even so... price speaks loudest, it is what it is


----------



## Joules MM1

this took a cupla goes to get set on silver the lift began very messy, important to keep that in mind, clean lifts, impulsive lifts are the gifts of unknown gods that a winner for a long streak but when it's a messy lift it's ultimately a trap for someone, ususally late-commers with last gasp have-to-have buy-ins (to whatever direction being spruiked)
...small break-out to confirm both major PM's on their way to make next upside target.....whether it's the last rotation up before a resumption of the monthly downtrend we wont know until much closer .....if the sentiment is uber positive for PM's we'll know it's too early for perma bulls.....altho nothing in the manual of easy money sez PM's cannot go sideays for a cupla years and royaly shank everyone ! .....joy!

30m + dailies:


----------



## Joules MM1

april cons


----------



## Joules MM1

downside done for now?


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> downside done for now?
> View attachment 92933




non-confirmations require err confirmation and can be useful at all time frames provided the context and relative sizes are consistent 

for example: 
	

		
			
		

		
	




daily non-con


----------



## Joules MM1

both $silver n $gold made 61.8% of yesterdays swing south, but, not convincing longs, i'm out, scalping shorts in this muck


----------



## Joules MM1

small size STO's on 2 x noncons


----------



## Joules MM1

for example: non-cons and ratio combo: before /current


----------



## Joules MM1

some compression, retail cfd xau's relatively bearish 

some accompanying news to come?


----------



## Joules MM1

both silver gold bids keep falling to bits...typical overlapping wedgie things appears at all time frames, not a solid uptick anywhere...not a lot of commitment either side.....looking for swing catalysts*

* USD  Federal Funds Rate
* GBP     Monetary Policy Summary
* German Flash Manufacturing PMI


----------



## BlindSquirrel

that was a bit of a jump! Thank you Fed!
I was expecting them to resume hiking though because they want that 4% buffer.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I've just read that the fed plans to keep rates on hold for all of this year.
https://www.watoday.com.au/business...sets-end-to-asset-runoff-20190321-p51622.html

This bodes well for the gold price.


----------



## Joules MM1

gold/xau keeps losing traction, only spikes on news most likely shorts covering, lacks impulsive trend post news, runs out of momo, entraps, saved by lack of sell


----------



## Joules MM1

gold bulls should take 'heart' on this little bid hit-out .....failure to fall further as we hit the Asian sesh and rotate on standard commod ratios is a good sign for longs 
#xau #silver


----------



## Joules MM1

#xau/gold 


	

		
			
		

		
	
 same deal, bid bounces off ratios with no follow-thru as we could expect on the Asian session
bid simply runs out of gas ....back on STO's

as reflected in local XGD today...belief systems wax n wain pretty quickly


----------



## Joules MM1

(will we get a blow out in palladium too?)

*#ABCDEtri* still in play (weekly basis)

failure of bids both major PM's will keep this idea alive


----------



## Fxortrader

Joules MM1 said:


> (will we get a blow out in palladium too?)
> 
> *#ABCDEtri* still in play (weekly basis)
> 
> failure of bids both major PM's will keep this idea alive
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 93185




GOLD PRICES PREVENT PLEASURE DURING UNDER 1311

After forming the highest level at 1320 during this March, gold prices turned weaker along with the dollar's rebound after the Fed's dovish statement. The market sees this condition as a sign that the Fed is likely to end the program on normalizing monetary policy three years ago.

Even so, the Fed still looks optimistic about the US economy amid the global economic turmoil. Especially the most attention is the economic slowdown in China and the Euro Zone. That way, demand for the dollar has the potential to increase again which has the potential to weaken the price of gold.

As long as prices are still consistently below 1311 resistance, the price of gold in a downtrend is testing the closest support at 1305 before targeting 1302. Conversely, it needs to be consistently moving above 1311 to continue strengthening with the next closest resistance at 1315.

Support: 1305 - 1302 - 1299
Resistance: 1311 - 1315 - 1318


----------



## Fxortrader

GOLD UP IN THE TOP OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH


Gold prices were higher on Friday as disappointing data in the euro zone pushed investors into safe-haven assets.

The business sector across Europe declined in the release of preliminary data in March, with German manufacturing contracting no later than six years.

"This is a weakness in the economy in the euro zone and the prospect of interest rates that makes holding gold more attractive," said analyst Commodity Quantitative Research Peter Fertig.

Declining European data supported the Federal Reserve's dovish stance on Wednesday as the central bank remained concerned about economic growth in the US and globally.

Gold is very sensitive to interest rates, because lower interest rates tend to pressure the dollar and increase investor interest in non-producing gold.


----------



## Joules MM1

gold ratios held well
likely some distribution as liquidity contracts, some accounts might close out to cover margins in other vehicles, the shtick of metals climb when equities fall takes a while to kick in (if ever) ..everything being relative, .......play the price


----------



## Joules MM1

the higher ratio at 1316's looks like it'll go, persistent slow bid with silver being dragged behind, 
the non-con can be read both ways, that price is holding in this zone so well clearly shows sellers not in the game....a lot of wild fish in other ponds at the mo


----------



## Fxortrader

OUTLOOK GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWS POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT GOLD PRICE INCREASE

Gold prices have a chance to strengthen in the short term amid the depressed US dollar after the release of US economic data which was considered pessimistic on Friday and the increase in demand for safe haven assets behind the outlook for the global economic slowdown.

Today the market looks forward to a speech from FOMC member Charles Evans at 12:00 WIB, if in his speech he gave a dovish view, the opportunity to strengthen the rise in gold prices lately.

Support levels: 1310 - 1304 - 1297
Resistance level: 1320 - 1326 1333


----------



## Joules MM1

kicked out and dragged back in


----------



## Joules MM1

"sometimes you kick sometimes you get kicked"

selling shoes on again, non-com v. silver, bids just not aggressive, mishmash auction is rubbish by any standards.....by default gold holders tend to get jittery

7:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks ...more likely to wabble some crosses than metals


----------



## Joules MM1

gold rolls over

a developed structure looks for 1222....all attempts to lift silver/gold have been messy for several days even tho local xgd comp stocks are on the lift ....

impulsive sell


----------



## Joules MM1

be nimble or be nadgered

rotations, adhered to, called for an exit,  a rethink, a new game


----------



## Joules MM1

sfj

one of those days, trapped and spat out .....again.....!!

this thing has no staying power at all ...selling the front month under 1307's

crumble time ....


----------



## Joules MM1

the large ABCDE tri idea is back to the fore

with the ratio construct breaking down as i hinted earlier we were due a strong surge in either direction and as the make-up of the lifts lacked clean impulse the bias held to the sell side

local $XGD comps are going to  be a tad red tomorrow .....in a few days/weeks we should see a very good longside opportunity prior to a completion the monthly downtrend  in both silver/gold


----------



## Joules MM1

#diary #observation interruption to current downswing
$xau/gold has retraced  more than 52.36% and almost swept 61.8% of the current bounce within the larger downswing
$silver has not made 50% suggesting both metals will take early next week to play out a chop before resuming lower...but note not either have made 50% retrace of the decline, bids hesitant suggesting only small money in the game, i think we can expect more of the same based on this

#comparison in the left 3m chart you see a healthy looking bounce and in the righthand 10m chart you see it in context




COT suggests continuous selling by trend makers


----------



## Joules MM1

price going thru a looper pedal
Asian session no bids both metals
if both can make a quick rotate back thru 50% of last weeks decline that'd change the picture from a big hit south to another nauseating set of chops


----------



## Joules MM1

this cow keeps chewing grass and dropping pats, time to send in a dog
....not seeing markers that tell a rotation at hand = south journey should resume but requires a catalyst dog with the nearest being the NFP's tomorrow
a short sharp sweet move south required to force weak longs to quit ..right now even an 'odd' bond sale would be enough


----------



## Joules MM1

well constructed rip both $silver/$gold xauusd .....but the struggle at the low not similar to other rotations for a credible reverse to the upside, suggesting part of the NFP play

xauusd cfd just tipped the standard 1:1 ratio resistance, calling for small size
had to give up some % on prior STO's as part of the educational process !

data: finviz gold contract


----------



## Joules MM1

ii

swim between the flags and mind the rip
gold being a the fantastic liquidity vehicle it is, at least on a short term basis, one should always be suspect of the pre-annoc activity, who go induced into buying, who would benefit for the pending annoc, who's selling all that buying etc etc ..how does it fit the larger context
even tho many of those answers are out of my reach, price is the final indicator. so planning time..


----------



## Joules MM1

..one more item of business to attend to, what exactly is the make-up of this mornings rip, what's stopping the follow-thru, how do the active Asian hours affect price, what are the measurements, how is price acting in the prior congested (vpoc etc) zone (relative size swings)
+ do any of the measures coincide with same length (in total) construction - the answer so far : yes

#edu


----------



## Joules MM1

selling but oh you just take your sweet time aboot it jimmie aye !


----------



## Joules MM1

let's file this one under "things that are not at odds with the real world"
...
	

		
			
		

		
	




"...also require confirmation"


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> "...also require confirmation"




part ii ....with stops above the ratio


----------



## Joules MM1

good set-up, fell to bits, just worth the scale out.....

all the work being done to get price higher is making print choppy, when price is trending impulsively it's not being managed and that's the ride i'm looking for right now


----------



## Joules MM1

no impulsive bid, another divergence, 
#observation $xauusd x $silver


----------



## Joules MM1

the play is developing nicely to the sell side requiring a break down thru 1305's to confirm the divergent view (1308 brk targets 1312, 1305 brk resumes journey to 1222)

#observation


----------



## Joules MM1

1305's have failed to hold both a simple abc retrace and the nearest largest swing ratio, next step price needs to descend 1303's on an impulsive leg to confirm and take away all near-term probabilities of a larger pullback, we can continue use silvers lack of bid and it's 30min non-con's as a surrogate


----------



## BlindSquirrel

the 4 hr chart looks like a wedge forming


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> the 4 hr chart looks like a wedge forming
> View attachment 93717




bear flag look

how does it sit inside this one:
Gold Daytraders


----------



## Joules MM1

print is displaying xauusd has probably completed an interruption to the current downswing that is travelling in the proposed weekly chart in the above post

if we view the $DX (dxy/USD) to require another new daily high out its congestion zone and likely on a spurt then that fits the current gold/silver sell extremely well as we should expect some moment of uh-oh get-out trades in PM's (that's how flushes work if my thinking is correct!)

going into fridays retrace the move   lacked bid or impulsive construct (constructive impulsive bids create print)
fridays small sideways channel although complete in the way i've drawn it on this chart is very small in time so would not surprise me to see a fake lower low and have price chop back into the current retracement area 89-96, front month contract, it's a very small zone of 6bux ....conversely as we're now in the middle of the daily downswing monday may open with a drop bringing momo

$dx, xauusd/silver, #cot


----------



## Joules MM1

and a #weekly #observation #cot #intent $silver


----------



## Joules MM1

price continues to make way lower lows but lacks momo, tends to support the idea price is being assisted lower and with easter/passover insitu not as many players around
i'm having a guess at with that comment but it 'makes sense' implying we'd expect to see some momentum kick in lower down and then bids come in post this holiday period - guessing !

meantime, going with price as it prints, looking for a close on some sells at 1284's presently


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> the 4 hr chart looks like a wedge forming
> View attachment 93717




very well constructed rotation in that tri after a turgid sloppy move south

E travelled 61.8% of C in both metals in the front month contract
 the odds of an upside break-out of the tri look good unless todays low breaks and the low of C gets taken out


----------



## Joules MM1

the tri idea has a good measure, meaning, it fits all the standard orthodox reasons to go with the upside view based on those commonly occuring and backtestable measures - just one problem

patterns are subsumed by larger patterns (big players cull little players) and that accounts for the failure rate
i took off my sells this morning based on the measures in an "idealised" abcde tri but when i re-opened the screen there is no (current) follow-thru and price is printing like a continuation down so i'm using 1284.4 front month contract to determine a sell, if the upside is to play out we should see new highs inside the tri print very soon

breaking this mornings proposed 'e' would kill the tri


----------



## BlindSquirrel

All that jargon... I don't...



...should I be buying uppies or downies?
The gold price is currently testing the 1284 support, MACD is still bearish on the 1 and 4 hr (& daily)


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Can I assume (by larger trends subsuming smaller) you're referring to the longer term trend on the weekly?


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> Can I assume (by larger trends subsuming smaller) you're referring to the longer term trend on the weekly?
> View attachment 93851




yes mate
that little kick down we currently see in the weekly is killing every attempt to rally...we're headed for that diagonal upline


----------



## peter2

All that jargon describes the price structure that JoulesMM1 sees in the charts. The structure repeats in all time frames that's why one should always look at the bigger picture as Joules mentions. Structure is important because its how we (chartists) frame our trades. We look for high probability setups to trade. 

Joules' posts are a little more complex than most because he's trading in both directions. When we're trying to trade in both directions it gets more complex as any structure can be traded in either direction. A failed setup to go long may be a good setup to go short. 

I think that Joules does a remarkable job maintaining his sanity as I can follow most of his thoughts.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

You have my thanks, Joules & Peter.

I think my drawing of the support trend on the last one could be more useful if I ignore that second dip, the rest line up well.


----------



## Joules MM1

the abdce tri, we're almost breaking downside, at the moment, had/has all the normal structure to be a break-out to the upside but its dominated by a larger shape ....the shapes of course are utterly ethereal in practice while retaining a repetition, so by measuring the lengths of price swings we are given the opportunity to narrow down a focus that provides a level risk assessment on what types of moves should or should not unfold, in this way we can quickly re-balance an outlook, take it from a small bias in one direction to a same-size or larger bias in the opposite direction, it's how we can determin if the wedge is a fail, or what level we can be sure that structure is a fail or a follow-thru, the structure has boundaries on different sized or relatively sized scales
this is how i can determin if a pattern has "failed" if you like, it allows the current phase to be retold in realtime or as close to realtime, allows me to hold several probabilities in my head on the go and set targets in context - a shifting context unveils intent allowing for who maybe active at that time of day or week
so if an abcde triangle, that should break upwards, breaks down we can call that a confirmation of the strength of the larger pattern or trend, we should expect to get some momo too as players who were also expecting higher highs to get out suddenly forced to exit

levels - levels - levels


----------



## Joules MM1

additional to this Silver... support levels?

how it looks in the front month contract - most of these sells should come off tonight on a break down
the question is how well silver holds up, the longer it holds its tight reversal signature the faster the takeoff will be from compression and short sellers forced to cover


----------



## Joules MM1

things that signal



1271.88 127.2% inverted ratio of the  larger swing needs to be broken
1270.94 inverted ratio is the "B" to "C" inverted at 127.2% needs to be broken


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Is seems that something is imminent, anyway



If the overarching trend is still in charge then we should ignore this falling wedge, right?


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> Is seems that something is imminent, anyway
> View attachment 93903
> 
> 
> If the overarching trend is still in charge then we should ignore this falling wedge, right?




after 5 attempts to answer your question .......i started writing a book....and that's not going to happen

hour later ...make that 6 attempts that began first chapter of a book !!

instead, try these ....
https://www.elliottwave.com/Trading/Triangles-Offer-Traders-Important-Forecasting-Information

http://thepatternsite.com/BustAscTriangles.html#NOB2

....in technical ideas, very few drawn lines ever pass the 'random line on a chart' test


----------



## Joules MM1

a lot of exchanging ideas at todays low in xauusd, while silver has maintained a very bullish look holding the low of the wedge over several hours

closed my sells, re-open them if 1271's breaks down (front month cfd)
opened small longs on silver cfd stop 14.84's


----------



## Joules MM1

in this view  a = c within C of a proposed ABCDE triangle yet to complete

just an idea based on equality of the a and c within the larger C down tends to fit passed patterning


----------



## Joules MM1

close-up inspection, risk assessment, possible truncated swing


----------



## Joules MM1

follow-on

as price develops so do structure(s) ....with impulsive sell (prev group finished their bid business, new group steps in - sellers)


----------



## Joules MM1

price action went quiet, prob one group getting out, action still supports longs 

with a break of nearest ratio when activity goes quiet that's a time to consider exit if the prior impulse cannot find a continuation


----------



## Joules MM1

ratio construct is sealing current up-down-up sequence
for the bulls to get a leg up price must come lower to attract short covering energy to break-out upwards
..both groups of cfd players are extremely bullish (74%retail and 86% top clients) which is contrary to the low swing, theyre buying the low, not much fear
...small divergence in the arb
small size to suit the swing..likely more congestion till players return from easter and passover


----------



## kid hustlr

Where to now J?

Gold looks to be holding in at the lows - is it possible we head higher from here medium term?

All the major aussie gold stocks have been sold off quite hard over the past few weeks & months and are now starting to form 'classic head and should patterns'. All the more reason for me to keep an eye on the long side I think as I watch for a 'false break' of the pattern and the longer term uptrend to continue


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Where to now J?
> 
> Gold looks to be holding in at the lows - is it possible we head higher from here medium term?
> 
> All the major aussie gold stocks have been sold off quite hard over the past few weeks & months and are now starting to form 'classic head and should patterns'. All the more reason for me to keep an eye on the long side I think as I watch for a 'false break' of the pattern and the longer term uptrend to continue



rotation on hand, am long this, looking for 1295's front month cfd

after that i need to review ...still expecting another larger swing south, keen on low 1222's ish

nothing in stone tho


----------



## Joules MM1

classic!

soon as i look up price hits a double ratio and rotates south.....whacko BS set-up that was...nicely played, missed the gig completely......but i get em


----------



## BlindSquirrel

looks to be an upward trending support on the hourly & 4h chart. I'm looking to around 1285 at the moment, if it busts through there then up to circa 1295.


----------



## Joules MM1

waiting to see if xauusd can smash yest ratio resistance on gdp
risk is always the low of the first pull in the move




edit by the time i posted this, it cut thru


----------



## Joules MM1

saturday, need carafe sized java !!




the above chart still keeps alive the downside target until the higher swing levels are taken out (even then that action  only 'substantially' reduces the odds of reaching the lower 1222-1219 61.8 zone) 
i am especially warey of patterns that many traders can suddenly "see" as then those patterns rarely play out.... www.timingcharts.com COT GC print to this week (not inc yesterday) shows good uptick from commercial bid (blue)




this chart is a summary of this week, importantly, the "tri's" is were the give away that price was being marked up in a series of choppy non-impulsive legs leading to yesterdays trap-n-go


----------



## BlindSquirrel

The downward reaction to the news on Friday night stopped me out of the recovery... I had moved those stops up to just above my entry though so no loss.


----------



## Joules MM1

BlindSquirrel said:


> The downward reaction to the news on Friday night stopped me out of the recovery... I had moved those stops up to just above my entry though so no loss.




currently short looking for 1281's
price slammed into a ratio has changed it's personality meaning the bid that drove up price is not there now so what group in are in the auction right now is different based on how pattern is printing, anyways, we're due a small pullback and that 1281's level likely to inform if its a fishing expy for more supply or the friday high is terminal


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> currently short looking for 1281's
> price slammed into a ratio has changed it's personality meaning the bid that drove up price is not there now so what group in are in the auction right now is different based on how pattern is printing, anyways, we're due a small pullback and that 1281's level likely to inform if its a fishing expy for more supply or the friday high is terminal




plenty of chance to roll this thing and it's taking too long, cull the sell open small long for next target, s81's


----------



## Joules MM1

had to flop a second time as price failed to attract bids....currently silver most aggressive selling


----------



## Joules MM1

all offers, no hoohar
nearest simplest target sub 1275's


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> no hoohar



wrong
and cupla punches in the mouth on the way .....any excuse to rip price 
further down we get the more likely the momo


----------



## Joules MM1

friday
10:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
12:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI


----------



## Joules MM1

$spx cash implied takes 50+ points hit #thanksdonald
gold went for a pop but silver only hit fridays top and rolled

the news is in and that's all

risk defined


----------



## Joules MM1

#truncation based on a repeat measure (symmetry) a 100% repeat of the first move


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> #truncation




this resistance needs to hold, there are several ratios other than i've cited in this thread that say a construct has printed that stops price from ascending, price has required 'events' to get the current zone without that news endogenous trend is absent...this keeps my 1219-1222's on tap


----------



## Joules MM1

they take patience


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> Where to now J?
> 
> Gold looks to be holding in at the lows - is it possible we head higher from here medium term?
> 
> All the major aussie gold stocks have been sold off quite hard over the past few weeks & months and are now starting to form 'classic head and should patterns'. All the more reason for me to keep an eye on the long side I think as I watch for a 'false break' of the pattern and the longer term uptrend to continue




1222 > 1219's still in the sites


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> 1222 > 1219's still in the sites




nothing so far suggests a consolidation to rotation north, more like congestion before the next move in the same one-larger direction 

requires an impulsive move to gain momo


----------



## Joules MM1

silver hit the yellow line in the above chart and up we go

innocuous as the lift appears since this mornings rotation in both metals, it needs room to build a bid
so far the bids look good....


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> silver hit the yellow line in the above chart and up we go
> 
> innocuous as the lift appears since this mornings rotation in both metals, it needs room to build a bid
> so far the bids look good....



no bid, all churn, rubbish stuff, more downside to come


----------



## Joules MM1

silvers innocuous rotation at the low in the above chart had the best construct so i'm using that as the lead cue, slow squeez underway, lift occured pre-news, not a blow off news lift further to go 
selling below 1278 xauusd cfd otherwise holding the long


----------



## Joules MM1

yech

#manufactured lift

both metals failed to lift in the Asian sesh, not a first-good-look for an upswing
even tho both have these 'hindge' sideways shift that require a news ping to rock them off i doubt core duable goods tonight will rock the socks off but enough to cull early sellers and hook in chomping bids


----------



## BlindSquirrel

lift off!


----------



## Joules MM1

BOR (bid offer range)
silver made hey but failed to make an hourly higher high .......if you look at the bigger play on a 120min basis a HnS is in play if the 1279xauusd cfd fails to hold


----------



## Joules MM1

silver ripping south ......oh the arbs !!


----------



## Joules MM1

silver leads lower with xauusd being dragged behind bids fail to overtake offers ..no follow-thru on last weeks news rip, again, bids having to gain news rips to get ascension


----------



## barney

Joules MM1 said:


> silver leads lower with xauusd being dragged behind bids fail to overtake offers ..no follow-thru on last weeks news rip, again, bids having to gain news rips to get ascension




Haven't been paying attention for a few weeks …… 

We'd nearly be looking for a bottom bounce if it gets back to the $14ish mark do you think Joules

I just put a trawling buy in at $14.05 just in case the world ends tonight while I'm asleep


----------



## peter2

Joules MM1 said:


> silver ripping south ......oh the arbs !!




@Joules MM1  Thank you heaps. The cheque is in the mail. 
Your headline provided a four hour advance warning that gold may fall. Very nice work.


----------



## Joules MM1

silver rotates on 127.2 inverted ratio, xauusd failed to make lower lows, lends to more bid zone


----------



## Joules MM1

thanks @peter2 

we appear to have more of the same, even with a relatively higher bidside to commercials monthly basis we're not getting any clear air and price requires a news hit to get updraft that doesnt sustain for long


----------



## Joules MM1

small resistance, xauusd v the 6pac (sitting in bull channel)


----------



## Joules MM1

less of investment impulse and more of reactive energy with dxy spitting the dummy
interesting that 'top clients' cfd players closed at only 51% BTO v pre-wedge brk-out at 70%+
and 'all clients' closed 55% BTO v' 73% pre brk-out
uptick in COT report shows retail/managers chasing bid on low participation, commercials making lower lows on higher price 






end of may mental murrda, inspector
muhddah ?
aye, muhddah!


----------



## peter2

@Joules MM1  I noticed a couple of long entries in your gold chart. Well done. Good alignment with falling DXY.  Price is past your first target and onto the second. Will it go all the way to 1350?


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> @Joules MM1  I noticed a couple of long entries in your gold chart. Well done. Good alignment with falling DXY.  Price is past your first target and onto the second. Will it go all the way to 1350?




thrusts versus impulsive break-outs are hard to differentiate....one leads a to a primary rotation and is a hook to attract doubters and late comers to soak up the supply strong hands dont want..if the COT bares witness by commercial positions, signals theyre selling, then we can get a glimpse of which side to err on ......levels being levels etc

#biasrisk


----------



## Joules MM1

when you see a bunch of close-out line above a ratio that means i treated the (yellow dotted 1:1 swing equality) lines as break-out line that gave me permission to add with the trade (this instance bid) all the lines inbetween are now closed, super small in size, the stop is singular, we cannot know if targets will get hit or not, but, the play is repetitive, back testable, with one size broken into parts, some get closed and sometimes the target falls short (i was wrong) however as we close out on the way to the target two things occur, i lose on the extra dosh by closing some out early and lower the risk by losing some dosh by closing out early - and the dosh banked, is banked!


----------



## Joules MM1

@peter2 

and while my concentration is on indexes


----------



## peter2

Joules MM1 said:


> nd while my concentration is on indexes



Totally understandable as they're flying high tonight. I agree, with the index going up, gold is likely to fall. How far it falls will indicate the strength of the bullish demand. 
I'll take a nibble at a short.


----------



## Joules MM1

peter2 said:


> Totally understandable as they're flying high tonight. I agree, with the index going up, gold is likely to fall. How far it falls will indicate the strength of the bullish demand.
> I'll take a nibble at a short.



on the overnight action, back in BTO's, that sell signal i was looking at too hard too close suckered myself into seeing a reset in the current rip-up .....curiously retail cfd's are the most bear-stance i've seen a a few years at 56% STO's with top clients 49% STO's

yazz people!


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> on the overnight action, back in BTO's, that sell signal i was looking at too hard too close suckered myself into seeing a reset in the current rip-up .....curiously retail cfd's are the most bear-stance i've seen a a few years at 56% STO's with top clients 49% STO's
> 
> yazz people!




#truncation smallsize, needs to clear 1331's to signal 1357's in play


----------



## Joules MM1

$dx still got the sags, retail xauusd cfd's negative stance most of this journey


----------



## Joules MM1

pop quiz
a #thrust has completed, double top, 
at least all the requirements of the thrust, the $dx hit the base of an upchannel

xauusd also touched on the roof of the larger tri shape daily basis

which instrument looks the most bullish ?


----------



## Joules MM1

ii

close-up of blow-off to complete thrust 
inverted extension at 161.8


----------



## Joules MM1

another emotive ratio, breaking down this mornings low is likely to add momo to PM sells, we have a rotation in hand that is likely to hold for several weeks, we still have a kicker to come in the NFP's tomorrow
we saw an impulsive blow-off into the high to complete a thrust and impulsive first leg down, it's tiny but it's clean and the low in this current move is flat and typical of more southern cities to visit...


----------



## Joules MM1

let's follow along on the ride
	

		
			
		

		
	




the mouse that waits to see if the second mouse, who got away with the cheese, but the cheese was poisoned...... always eat well


----------



## Joules MM1

players setting up for the NFP whizzoff


----------



## Joules MM1

got some black and then got smashed into red on that one
i missread the set-up for a STO, price has corrected my outlook
next upside step 1357's


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## Joules MM1

before closing friday i placed a small sell as price appeared exhausted and would likely come back inside the news release range, today both gold/silver gapped at the open, this is not a typical bullish signal, if anything we would expect the reverse if the friday lift was to follow-thru - it appears the tie between xau/usd clearly displays inability of gold bulls to drive their own trend

trading the price in front of me


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## Joules MM1

6pac dragging gold in usd's .....fade the faders


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## Joules MM1

breaking the 127.2 level suits me to add size, prev sto's are scaled, what the dx does now tend to determin if this is a zone to bid xauusd

always a work in progress


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## Joules MM1

@peter2  toot toot

sluggish train but its leaving the station - in reverse


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## peter2

Joules MM1 said:


> toot toot




Ha, the XJO train left the station without me today. I'm still on the platform with a few USD that I earned last night. Currently earning a few Euros (DAX) and Pounds (FTSE) with the indices following the US lead.


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> ......levels being levels etc
> 
> #biasrisk
> 
> View attachment 95199



travel plans
1357's hit, def on a thrust, with background bearish cfd positions, a lot of short covering
time to find out if this trip is the real deal, USD has been moving upward with gold (normal in small moves)
a breakout of the wedge/tri shape will bring about more short covering (BTC + BTO's) we should expect to see momo as sideline money rips in ... first we should get a small retrace today thru monday to invite sellers so applying simple ratios to find a "tell"


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## Joules MM1

1349's breached with volume

timingcharts.com shows managers chased the offer while commercials sold into the strength


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## Joules MM1

with the 1357's target reached and rotation on 1358's, today is a confirmation day action-wise, with what was a ostensibly  (altho not fully) an outside-down day on friday,   with the front month contract taking out 1329's (+ 4p for the forward), i'll consider that a confirmation in toto... we're now on the last leg down of this wedge thing

the 6pac continuing it's climb and silver rotation, we can consider the return target to complete this longwinded sideways wedge thing as now 1231's (+/- cupla points) adjusted from the 1219/1222's price and we have to play that as we go, at least there's a road map for risk...so far


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## Joules MM1

> *Chris Weston*‏ @*ChrisWeston_PS* 5h5 hours ago
> 
> 
> gold (red) vs gold 25d 1-month risk reversals....the skew has go to levels where we have seen reversals in gold...all call buyers, too much love?




+ the few and far between


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## Joules MM1

solid bifurcation this morning tween bids/offers (what else would there be!) so while bid is attempting to mount the resistance each lift is being sold into so it's not a case of not enough bids to get price higher or hesitancy for price discovery, it is simply a case of offers waiting for strength, looks like 1358/53 zone offered  enough time for longs to exit before we go down to test 1231's


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## peter2

Surely, (I'm not calling you Shirley) you made a typo?   1331's perhaps


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## Joules MM1

stops were close by at 1358's that was a big move, missed most of that swing looking for 1396's next leg

price the final arbiter on every idea


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## kid hustlr

J, is this the start of an almighty run?


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## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> J, is this the start of an almighty run?




could be ...i've been keen to eventually go 1550's but thought we'd complete a cycle lower first will to see what's in the cot report to figure if this is a big trap


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## peter2

IMHO if gold stays within it's huge corrective pattern, then 1550s are a reasonable target. If this is the start of another impulsive move then the min target is 1800 with 2000 easily reachable. The bullish outlook is promising, but only if price stays above 1270. Monthly chart.




Edit: I see copper has also started up from it's recent low. Palladium is off and gone.


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## Joules MM1




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## Joules MM1

ripped thru 1396's ....sitting on a long, not a lot to do here .....


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## Joules MM1

rug pull $dx
plenty of width avail when the rotations come...


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## explod

Aussie gold continues to expand on it's all time highs, up a further $23 today and now $2028.

I wonder when we will see this historic event in the MSM.

My MOY jumped up over 20% in the last two days. Interesting times.

Edit: Can't believe this, Aussie gold price just mentioned on ABC business news.


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## Joules MM1

meanwhile, traders at the disco ........nect


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## Joules MM1

dxy not providing momo, struggles on easy rotation....needs another news rip


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## Joules MM1

bid at/above the symmetry, sell below


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## Joules MM1

slipslidin awaaaayyyyy


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## Joules MM1

COT ....exuberance has a cost
using two random horizontal levels as a template for extremes, it is not hard to see when commercials decide to rotate the trend

no mess-around dump on the NFP's, no posturing or positioning in the final min re-release (cept for the overnight and prior days), USD cfd hit a 88.6% retrace uphill then slow slump into the close assisting gold to lift from the first bid zone, but, again, it's all 6pac leading the way and below the green machine is all bid as managers are mandated to chase the trend while commercials make their first decent extreme plunge
1480 is the idealised rotation level in this orthodox method which has been useful in prior major trends (resumption, down) ....an investment vehicle should not be reliant on one part to make way if it's authentic in trend, it should have it's own impulsion, this dependence on a singular market function belies what's really going on, doesnt mean we wont go higher, but, the positioning of commercials are selling into the strength (cfd's xauusd are regularly 60/70% BTO which is not extreme for PM's)
this coming week is likely to be muddy at best with the weekly bar signal giving a sell (not quite and outside down bar) and the low this morning was hardly bought into with gusto, suggesting this mornings low is taken out pdq on monday then upside bets become very limited espesh if the 6pac gets above the 88.6% retrace
#observations #USDI $xauusd #COT
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1 
http://timingcharts.com/




money flow:



ratios:  
	

		
			
		

		
	



ratios:


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## Joules MM1

the controvertible USDI climb is the big lean on xauusd/silver
as per my weekend study, breaking above the 88.6% fridays res, USD level does not add to the upside picture for gold
making 1386 front month contract the level for ardent bulls to protect...where are the bids, all the bids are in as per the contract sizing shown in another thread here as ASF, the COT clearly shows managers and retailers have bought what there is to be bought and chasing the (input whatever narrative applied to suit the mood) and commercials have done the selling

the lack of bid and lack of "events" as an excuse to drive price higher exposes what's or who's  actually driving trend todate....again, an authentic trend does not await events or causality, it is endogenous

i am STO protecting 1410's front month contract, looking for size at 1386 break


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## Joules MM1

xauusd stalls, forcing bids to accept lower value, fails to reach basic symmetric ratios 
(1, 2 and 3 yellow lines)

limps back to the round 1400 # and sellers slowly roll it over, USDI maintains it's structure (up)


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## Joules MM1

i missed annotating the symmetry that does matter, the one the whole set-up now rests on, technically


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## Joules MM1

a weekly rotation has hit xauusd and inline with small rotation in usdi which itself needs a confirmation of a larger move north

what's more important (to me) is that while gold has required permission to move from the 6pac it is well balanced in sentiment (retail cfd positions)

so while the metric is valid and perfect hit/rotation, that so many people agree on a sell at a high when typically gold has been extremely bullish at highs ......gotta think, more of the same is more probable (up)

sell to open for now but with a retake of the 1453's level all downside bets will be off


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## Joules MM1

sticking with my sells as xauusd rolls downhill

two observations, aside from the 1:1 ratio completing the bounce allowing for a new leg down to correct the 2000-2011 bull market, we have a USDI that has regualrly been at 88-90% sell to open, so if 90% ish are STO (10-12% BTO) and xauusd is still holding 55% BTO's then that'sa  good back drop for more downside till xauusd can find a basic vpoc zone to attempt another move thru the 1452-1453 level

its a solid wall

i started executing btcusd cfds this week as the major correction june 27th thru july 17th appears complete, with USDpac on the bid btcusd is struggling to get up, but it appears a better bid side proposition than xauusd


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## Joules MM1

bulls have all the work to do, to prove the[ir] trend


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> sticking with my sells as xauusd rolls downhill
> 
> two observations, aside from the 1:1 ratio completing the bounce allowing for a new leg down to correct the 2000-2011 bull market, we have a USDI that has regualrly been at 88-90% sell to open, so if 90% ish are STO (10-12% BTO) and xauusd is still holding 55% BTO's then that'sa  good back drop for more downside till xauusd can find a basic vpoc zone to attempt another move thru the 1452-1453 level
> 
> its a solid wall
> 
> i started executing btcusd cfds this week as the major correction june 27th thru july 17th appears complete, with USDpac on the bid btcusd is struggling to get up, but it appears a better bid side proposition than xauusd




that vpoc zone where we're likely to see another bid-up
volume comment refers to this weeks selling versus the previous sells first week of july
the volume is not extreme, just more-than, it can be seen as protective selling because so many technicians use ratios but so far the selling is quiet a case can be made for both sides of the gig


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## Joules MM1

xauusd is sitting/sagging at the vpoc low (see above chart)
post Draghi there was a bid but it's been sold into, very small series of lower lows are clear, today retail cfd's are 63% long with USDI 8% long (8% buy to open, 92% sell to open) 
sentiment favours more slump
and  lower time frame in silver has an arguable wedge with a double top-type thing......so not an incontrivertible anything at the moment, limited moments of volatility
...with the offer


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## Joules MM1

in the above silver chart the complete diagonal wedge appears to be confirmed today with an impulsive sell down ....i can (have) make a case of a truncated lower high in xauusd but it's early days yet to use phrases such as
" incontrovertible trend"


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## Joules MM1

jittery PM's  stampeding  the exits ...this could get momo very quickly now as get-out levels are hit and m/a sells are triggered


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## Joules MM1

sell-side liquidity has the bigger % pressure inter markets


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## Joules MM1

head fakes

if we define the smart money as a group of players whom have an intent to drive low volume in a direction so they get can best position for the direction they want (the opposite) we can call that a head-fake set-up

until xauusd (gold v. USDI) makes a break-out new high we should be aware of the fake bids


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## Joules MM1

i am back to STO's again today

the COT report is such an extreme, so many players on one side of the boat, a % retrace is the least to expect....pretty impressive the managers chasing the offer and the commercials offering it up for sale


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## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> i am back to STO's again today
> 
> the COT report is such an extreme, so many players on one side of the boat, a % retrace is the least to expect....pretty impressive the managers chasing the offer and the commercials offering it up for sale




it's not in the chart.....youre gunna need a bigger boat


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## Joules MM1

long list of green diggers, $xgd on below zero 13 week money flows

good day to sell the highs


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## Joules MM1

larger view https://www.tradingview.com/x/fYrRdrdZ/

heat resistant view https://www.tradingview.com/x/4dq75DtL/


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## Joules MM1

about to find out if this is merely the auction looking for value to break overhead res

scaling is prob a good idea here depending on the TF being employed








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

for buyers of the dip there may be many dips to come
holding the downsloping channel line is a fair indication we are in near-term trend mode








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

emotive trade traits make for ratios to bid/offer extremes of measures, thus defining risk








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




ABBC (always be banking coin!)


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## Joules MM1

plenty of sell signals








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## peter2

I hope they turned into buy signals before Thursday evening (May 6th). 
There were two attempts to go lower without any follow through. I was looking at it with a bullish bias though. The double bottom in March turned me strongly bullish again in April.


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## BlindSquirrel

RSI agreed with you.


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