# SSI - Sino Strategic International



## mathias (15 May 2006)

I would appreciate any news re this stock. I was told Packer just bought 10% of the company????


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## mathias (22 August 2006)

*SSI Sino Strategic International*

Bruce Mathieson has finally sold out from Sino Strategic. Bruce Mathieson failed taking over Sino, and sold off his shares at any price which bought the share price down. Now he is entirely out many exciting things will be happening with SSI.

Keep an eye on it!!!!


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## Out Too Soon (12 October 2006)

*Re: SSI*

well this is a quiet thread, guess it's not a resource.  
But this has sparked my interest after reading Criterion (Australian) 5/10/06
Anyone know some more about this one? my portfolios about 95% resources atm, not that I believe in diversification for diversifications sake but there's more to the stockmarket than just mining isn't there?


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## Out Too Soon (30 October 2006)

I'm surprised there isn't more support for this stock, all the ingredients seem right.
a) The Chinese love gambling
b) The Chinese population r getting wealthier
c) SSI have Chinese/Australian management with obvious connections in mainland China
d) New Casino type gambling place at Shanghai F1 Grand Prix site (that's very high profile)
e) Cashed up & ready to expand into rest of mainland China
Getting into mainland China instead of just Hong Kong & Macau looks like a great plan to me, one step ahead of the likes of Packer & Co.

Of cause I'm slipping into my old habits on this one, judging the stock by it's fundamentals rather than market sentiment.


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## Robroy (21 February 2007)

*SSI - The Speculator's buy of the week*

David Haselhurst (The Speculator) in The Bulletin magazine today picked SSI as his buy of the week.

Haselhurst usually does his research pretty carefully, and his 2006 stocks showed an average 194% gain.

So I'm in to SSI.


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## Out Too Soon (21 February 2007)

*Re: SSI - The Speculator's buy of the week*



			
				Robroy said:
			
		

> David Haselhurst (The Speculator) in The Bulletin magazine today picked SSI as his buy of the week.
> 
> Haselhurst usually does his research pretty carefully, and his 2006 stocks showed an average 194% gain.
> 
> So I'm in to SSI.




Is this a contrarian stock or not, maybe Haselhursts mention is the reason but when everything else fell SSI climbed on no ann.
As I said before this stock makes sense as a good investment but I got burned then. I'm back in again since (obviously), hopefully the market in general will start to take notice.


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## motorway (27 April 2007)

Significant Jump already
drawn out backup
that led to a shakeout
I would atm see  it has  confirmed as terminal ( That is it wont be retested.. And could be the starting point of markup phase )

Nice sign of strength follows..
action over the last four bars is absorption.
There has been no meaningful reaction ( plenty of leeway even to $2.90 if it decides to make another test ..adequacy of the reaction )

Stock has been getting good press..
So no one is to eager to lower their sell price
But demand is waiting to see the announcements.
That's what the absorption action  suggests.

In context Here is valid reason to buy the breakout itself
Good news acting on a good  technical position ..

None of the buyers got much in the shakeout
That is why I call it terminal... Nothing for the buyers down there.
All the action is holding up higher..

I definetly hold this one..

David Haselhurst ... has made this a buy a second time..

however that is Just another test to see response..

I judge We have got good response..

See the green below  what Wyckoff thought the response revealed to Us.

A tricky stock as regards liquidity..outside a lot of buying lists
Such stocks must then offer enticing rewards along with those perceived risks.

More an investors stock than a traders stock
which to me has to do with patience and time frames rather than method..


So
DYOR

cheers
motorway


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## motorway (26 May 2007)

pulled back right into the trading range
But showing no willingness to retest the shakeout low with any
determination..
It looked ready to move higher
But the shallow drift visible on the P&F
hints at some more preparation

I could guess the good press generated some weak longs
But why guess

The backing and filling
plus the upward slopping lows and tightness of the activity
points to good support and absorbing of the the weak longs

At this stage..
I would think there are valid buy points on the bar chart at the attempted retests of that shakeout low...

purely a chart view and opinion



motorway


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## motorway (26 May 2007)

The chart 


"pulled back right into the trading range
But showing no willingness to retest the shakeout low with any
determination..
It looked ready to move higher
But the shallow drift visible on the P&F
hints at some more preparation

I could guess the good press generated some weak longs
But why guess

The backing and filling
plus the upward slopping lows and tightness of the activity
points to good support and absorbing of the the weak longs

At this stage..
I would think there are valid buy points on the bar chart at the attempted retests of that shakeout low...

purely a chart view and opinion



motorway"


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## X888 (8 June 2007)

What I've been told by sources is the Chinese gov have finnaly given them more license to open up places like this and more in the future

ANN : Sino Strategic International Ltd is pleased to advise that the Company has continued
to expand its gaming distribution network in Shanghai with the opening of the second
Multi Entertainment Centre (“MEC”) in the Hong Kou district of downtown
Shanghai. This is the second MEC established by the Company since the opening of
the Shanghai F1 MEC in October 2006.


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## motorway (9 June 2007)

SSI certainly did more than test the shakeout low

really fell out of bed .. Not unusual for a stock with this liquidity or size..

( √ rule )

It would seem that selling out of Germany triggered by the fall in the shanghai
index  caused a sharp drive down

Whatever.. What matters was whether the selling was informed
Stock had a classic selling climax and V bottom


It did give a buy setup 
and So I bought ( some more )..

Certainly a speciality

But sometimes rewards are commensurate with perceived risk
certainly We had a three day spike in volume
someone was buying ..

above I mentioned some weak longs
This drive maybe shaken them all off
And there is a stronger technical position.

announcement out certainly seems to suggest 
That the business is moving forward

Stocks go down to go up

We will see

one to definitely .. DYOR

technical or fundamental

Wyckoff stressed that sponsorship of such stocks is passive
( every stock needs there to be someone who knows that value is present ,
No value No reason for anybody even a trader to buy.. A stock with no value is one that you do not what to be left holding the bag )

He meant that when sellers are determined step back and wait to see the buying emerge ..
charts told the story
SSI Hit the springboard
Those who buy on declines came out and stopped the drive

They absorbed the supply.. and good confirmation in the close on Friday



motorway


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## motorway (10 June 2007)

Another perspective
Some of the 50% levels marked
A higher low is a higher low

Another important 50% level not marked is the
the more than 50% retrace of the previous column

with or without the step back included...

Such a reversal is to be noted

the columns are the direct result of "differences of opinion"


motorway


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## motorway (22 June 2007)

Getting some confirmation

Yesterdays bar indicated Demand

A Spring back from below support
getting some follow through today

motorway


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## Out Too Soon (23 June 2007)

Hi Motorway!
                thanks for all the graphs & analysis, I lost interest in this quite a while ago when I lost patience (read panic) & took a loss. I swore off low volume stocks, if there's no interest then the fundamentals are useless. 
   Now that I've said that I can't help but admit to still being interested in this one esp' at current levels.
   I'll take a position on monday.


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## motorway (23 June 2007)

> I swore off low volume stocks, if there's no interest then the fundamentals are useless.




Hi O.T.S

Yes You have to approach it has a specialty... That is not a normal trading situation... But as a Spec/investor approach...

If you do that and allow for the swings as buy and selling pushes it around.

You Will have an opportunity that will offer possible huge rewards
because of the very fact the traders are often totally absent..

Note possible....Where there is reward there is risk..

There is a number of things that over time has impressed Me about SSI..

So you need to be sure of Your time frame and the way You are going to handle the risk... 

SSI when it takes off ... certainly takes off..
tends to be weak longs though that join late ( imvho )
Buying that is looking for a quick profit that sell when weakness appears

So I don't Buy breakouts here at all....
When it falls ... Watch it find support...
Those buying then I assume are not weak longs..

If You looked at the trading recently some weakness seemed to come out of Germany
when Shanghai dived

German Buying seems to be based on the focus money articles( Like the speculators in the bulletin ) So they Buy when they are told to Buy and on weakness they sell And it flows over to the ASX..

I think also there as been impatience with the mooted sports betting..

Certainly however buying emerges willing to meet that selling..

This is a stock I  have followed for around 8 years and feel comfortable holding..

liquidity is lower
swings are wider
but there is always ( So far ) Buyers that come in..

Focus Money, Bulletin , Eureka Report , Criterion .
Have all at various times given it a positive coverage..

I see the bulletin Did not make an issue over the price dip
But just noted the latest MEC roll out..

Just My opinion
DYOR

all the best

Motorway


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## Out Too Soon (13 July 2007)

Well I said I wouldn't but I have. I took a position in SSI again, couldn't help myself, I think time will show I made the right decision. Surely $2.11 is support.


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## GreatPig (13 July 2007)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Surely $2.11 is support



Based on hope or theory?

I see $1.90 to $2 as a reasonable and long-term support level, but if it breaks that, then 20 cents here we come! 

Cheers,
GP


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## X888 (16 July 2007)

new ann out

Re: Shanghai Sports Lottery Administration enters into Cooperation
Memorandum with Shanghai Kelo

Sino Strategic International Ltd (“SSI”) is pleased to advise that its wholly owned Chinese subsidiary, Shanghai Kelo Investment Management Company Ltd (“Shanghai Kelo”) has entered into a Memorandum of Cooperation (“MOC”) with Shanghai Sports Lottery Administration (“SSLA”) for Shanghai Kelo to act as its retail agent for the distribution of SSLA products within Shanghai Kelo’s land base welfare lottery distribution network in Shanghai city.


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## Out Too Soon (31 July 2007)

GreatPig said:


> Based on hope or theory?
> 
> I see $1.90 to $2 as a reasonable and long-term support level, but if it breaks that, then 20 cents here we come!
> 
> ...




$2.11 it was  & contrarian it certainly is.  

PS: one day my rural setting will have broadband & I'll post those graphs that load so sloooow.
PPS: Pigs cleared & ready to fly.


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## motorway (15 September 2007)

> The most valuable feature of Figure Charts are  their
> horizontal formations.................................It is in these horizontal formations, or congestion areas, on the
> figure chart that we find the greatest aid: (a) in determining how
> far a stock should go; (b) when it meets opposition, viz., when it
> ...






> The 3 Box reversal chart brings out a condition that is not always
> immediately apparent from a casual glance at a 1 Box reversal chart. It
> is important to observe and remember in this connection that the
> inability of a stock to reverse its trend three full boxes or more,
> ...






> It is the change from dullness to activity (regardless of the
> absolute, i. e., the actual volume), or the reverse, which is
> important; and the manner in which the change occurs. These changes
> put us on guard to watch for further indications which will either
> ...






> The sponsorship of most small stocks is passive or inert
> Smart money  dislikes to move
> an issue in the face of a large following -- they have nothing to
> gain by giving the public a free ride. The big fellows prefer to
> ...





Ok SSI still very much a speciality , But congestion on P&F chart is nearly ALWAYS significant ...

Congestion areas on a P&F are where the building of cause is revealed

The quotes are taken from Richard Wyckoff

With Wyckoff P&F... An important consideration is relating Box size to the data set... It is important to not bring any time distortion into the chart.

We want to see the actions of smarter money  at work this means catching broken Rhythms.. Using Market or intrinsic time  It also means using the box size to filter out all the swings that are not created by smarter money..

The starting point and foundation is the 1 box reversal chart....


here are a 8% x 1 and a 2% x 3

A very interesting congestion zone revealed on the 2% chart...

The 8% chart is also interesting
The lack of "work" on the strong rise
The huger amount of "work" relative since

And the "character" of that work..

work builds a cause that produces an effect....


Other charts to look at are the 0.05(cents) x 1   chart
and a vertical bar chart 

motorway


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## motorway (27 September 2007)

In (part an) answer to a question.

On the 2%x3 chart what caught the eye was a "broadening" pattern of congestion.... Which in a less liquid stock is maybe the best sign of the "other side" starting to get involved....

Who is the other side ? The other side is defined by who has had control of the immediate trend........

A P&F chart ( especially a P&F chart ) goes down and then sideways there has to be some degree  of accumulation then in  play...

The shape is suggestive of an Olympic hammer thrower , swings getting wilder and wilder... To the naive observer something is going to explosively give and if you are in the vicinity you drop to the ground or run for it..

To the more educated observer certain aspects of the  position of the protagonist  reveals the intended direction .

Intended direction=anticipated direction.........
Not predicted direction.......

In this case the hammer was released and We have had a huge throw
But in the opposite of the anticipated direction.

Broadening pattern of congestion suggests a  large degree of uncertainty
wild swings making alternating new highs and lows.. demand and supply are chasing each other....

OK So where are We now ?

Potentially very oversold.
Why ?

There was active accumulation
demand did come in 



> (b) when it meets opposition, viz., when it
> has about reached the end of its move




However the subsequent action reveals ( The response that the subsequent action has given to that test ) That if that congestion is accumulation it is only preliminary in Wyckoff terms it is 







> Preliminary Support (PS): is a form of a selling climax and is an action in which important demand comes in to stop the down move even if only temporarily. It is the first important rally in a downtrend  and often occurs after the first oversold condition It's is a warning that the end of the down move may be near. The significance of the (PS) is that if the entire base proves to be  accumulation then that  accumulation may have begun at the (PS) and continued throughout the entire base.




What confirms preliminary support ? A selling climax !

Just look at the chart 26 continuous boxes DOWN ( chartcraft call that a long tail down or low spike )....

It is a speciality.. It is not BHP or a resource stock ( which have the spotlight ).. It was recommended by  David Haselhurst, reaffirmed as a buy and then sold in these "volatile" times...

If you buy because someones tells you , You maybe sell when they tell You to as well... Only if You are underwater You maybe hang on till as long as you can hold your breath..........

SSI recently made a placement at $1.60.............

( We can all read the "news" and announcements... HongKong etc )

IF the congestion zone is Preliminary Support ( *IF* ).. Then the "long tail" is an accumulation base turned to the vertical.. But we will not know till the first three box reversal ( In a way We get paid for acting before everyone knows. Only at the the ultimate top  is where We get to know 100% what We should have done ).........

It is a specialty one to DYOR with and accept the risk esp the "volatility"..

Weak hands ( If it is they who are selling ) tend to buy what has gone up ( BHP atm ) and sell what has gone down...

As My trading is very much informed by Richard Wyckoff.. I will leave You with this quote on how smart money acquires specialties under the cover of such time of "risk avoidance" by the "public"

The three charts tell a story...
If the spike is accumulation ...Rather than a base for sky rockets.. It is a wall for an express lift to climb...

AGAIN DYOR...observations are just that and could be very wrong..

and yes I do Hold........



> ..... may be induced for the purpose of accumulation. They
> may pull out all their orders to see what the stock will do if left
> to itself. If they wish to buy, they take what is offered without
> bidding for it, never taking all there is, but always leaving some
> ...




You judge if the earlier congestion and the current action is following this description... 

It is possible that the more informed are actually selling.
It is Your analysis that You must rely on to reach your opinion

SSI has little "following" at the moment
even on the 1 box reversal chart there is only a  solitary one box step back in the "tail"
There is volume on the bar chart

cheers
motorway



> Hey Motorway, I've followed your analysis on SSI with a great interest.
> What is your opinion on the 19% drop today? Think it'll keep going down or retrace?
> I'd be interested to know are you holding/buying or selling?


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## sting (11 October 2007)

The bottom has fallen out of this one..I just brought in at $1.00... hoping that the new contracts and games in china will lift profits.... The chinese are known gamblers and with the upturn in the economy over there this should return to its former levels within the next 6 mths.

If im missing something here or if my research is flawed ..im open to all opinions from those who have followed this stock longer than I


SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


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## nikkothescorpio (11 October 2007)

Had a quick read over of the company...and in concept it sounds good but something must really be fundamentally wrong with this operation as its been going hard down for quite a while now.

$1 is a nice point to get in but really seems to have a very strong trend going against it - when you'd imagine it shouldn't - so I'd avoid it myself unless some positive signs came to the surface.


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## motorway (12 October 2007)

1) The stock was already in a decline before the "correction" Why ? Technically It does nor matter.. But I would guess that the revenue growth occurring now was expected 12 months ago.. And meanwhile resources have been strong etc

2) Just before the correction the bulletin article gave it a good coverage and made the stock a buy... This bought in weak longs... what are weak longs ?
Those who are buying BHP now because it is going up and they don't wont to miss out on the rally ( That they have so far missed out on  )



> a stock is in a weak technical position on the bull side when it has been purchased and is held by a large number of outside speculators; when most of these are looking for a profit; when the price of the stock has advanced to a point where no further buying can be stimulated for the time being. It stands to reason that when buying power is exhausted a stock must decline, no matter how strong its finances, management or earning power.




What killed it was the market correction the derisking from everything ( including BHP ) and the Bulletin then  making it a sell ( because of the mkt volatility ) ..

All those followers of the Bulletin qualify to some extent as weak longs 







> held by a large number of outside speculators; when most of these are looking for a profit




They were left holding a bag and conditions had changed... Also throw in momentum traders who might also have bought.

Weak longs tend to sell out when prices fall because they are only holding for
a quick sure profit...

strong longs ( The strongest ) Buy only value they will buy more as the price falls......... As anyone been buying ? Where is the volume coming from
Why were there 100,000 odd bid at a ~$1.00 and then when taken out reset at .80 ( And other bids that were placed in the path of the negative momentum higher up)

The long tail is still accumulative still potentially very oversold

Market strength is not centred on stocks like this
it is centred on BHP and RIO with the banks playing catch up..

With weak longs ( also called weak hands ) The old saying is "It wont go up until after you sell "

Stocks bottom when weak hands under the cloud of sentiment and panic
transfer their stock to strong hands.... Who is NOW buying who is Now selling ?



> On the other hand, a stock is in a weak technical position on the short side when the bears have exhausted their ammunition by selling all they can afford and when the buying power of investment and speculative purchasers is such that it resists the pressure of the bears; in other words, when demand overcomes supply. The weakness in such a position is found in the fact that all those who are short are potential bulls; they must, sooner or later, cover their commitments in order to close their trades.




Is the thrust shortening ?
Is the Volume rising ?
Is there any divergence ?? ( I will answer this one  Not Yet )

Now it is a speciality ( look above for the activities of passive sponsorship )
There is NO short selling.. So there is not the violent bounce from short covering that kick starts a trading range. On the other hand all the buying must be "Good" ( Strong hands )... So it will not take much of a "cause" ( Horizontal zone on the P&F ) to make an effect...

So Divergence might show up too late to profit from

What precedes Divergence ? .....Inharmonious action...which We are now seeing ( last three bars effort is not in harmony with result )



> I am also convinced that anyone who
> really wants to make money in the market will do two
> things: First, he will determine major accumulation.
> That is, he will detect when major accumulation is
> underway.




This is what matters .. There is such a powerful bandwagon effect.. The right question to ask  is why is there someone on the other side and what is the subsequent response in the stock from their activity.

CTN would qualify for being a strong long for example

I have No idea if they are Buying or selling
They are an example of someone who does not follow tip sheets or I would expect momentum... And If keen on the stock would possible be pleased to see the lower prices and the willing sellers.



> July 31, 2007 - 11:29AM
> 
> Micro cap stock investor Contango MicroCap Ltd has more than tripled its annual profit, and says it expects to capitalise on more public floats and rights issues this year...............................................................
> ............Some of its top 20 holdings include Sino Strategic International Ltd,




Trend is easy to see ( But some only see them when they are about over)
What precedes a change of trend is a certain technical position
And real accumulation or distribution between strong and weak hands 
being the preparation....small stocks specialities can often have zones of vertical accumulation... When all who would sell have sold We will see..
In the meantime the fundamentals unfold and become clearer..

DYOR..... Yes, revenue growth, product launch and HK listing all sound good.
(All been flagged to some extent )

But what really  matters is this, are  better informed interests active and if so on what side.

purely an opinion and discussion...

Stocks like this offer great rewards because they are perceived as greater risks. 

charts below
welcome any discussion on them

Risk is a real thing that can hurt
but it is taking risk that others wont that We get the reward for
No risk at all ? very low returns...

We want to take the risk that weak longs wish to offload
and take with them the rewards that the strong hands are holding on for.

We can but try 



( quotes are from Richard Wyckoff  from a number of his works 1922 and prior)


motorway


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## motorway (12 October 2007)

SSI ventures are in Shanghai and Mainland China...SSI does not mine Iron Ore in Australia..
Being listed on the HK exchange would make a lot of sense. Esp considering what is below....customers could become investors as well...

China Relaxes a Barrier, Letting Citizens Invest in the Hong Kong Stock Market 



> By KEITH BRADSHER
> Published: August 21, 2007
> HONG KONG, Aug. 20 — The Chinese government announced today that it would allow mainland Chinese citizens to invest in the Hong Kong stock market, the most significant move to date by Beijing officials to dismantle the barriers that prevent most Chinese from making international investments.
> 
> ...






> nikkothescorpio Re: SSI - Sino Strategic International
> 
> Had a quick read over of the company...and in concept it sounds good but something must really be fundamentally wrong with this operation as its been going hard down for quite a while now.
> 
> $1 is a nice point to get in but really seems to have a very strong trend going against it - when you'd imagine it shouldn't - so I'd avoid it myself unless some positive signs came to the surface.




Very much part of the dynamic that has  been in place

The first positive signs to look out for
are  a "change in the behavior" and a change in the "ease of movement" in the line of least resistance..looking for signs the opposition ( demand ) is starting to  assert..

Worthwhile looking at the trend in the sales revenue ( better later than never ) and the imminent launch of new products in sports lottery/betting .




> Product diversification benefits are expected to receive a further strong boost in the near
> future as a result of the agreement recently signed with Shanghai Sports Lottery
> Administration (“SSLA”). As previously reported the full range of current and future SSLA
> games will be rolled out through the POS network improving the stores cost to revenue
> ...




If they start week on week producing good figures + technically wash out the sellers at these prices
A different line of least resistance will emerge...

Trends are forced moves that spring from imbalances (plural )

DYOR 

Opinions for discussion

motorway


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## juw177 (12 October 2007)

Great post Motorway. But right now, I do not see how you can tell if strong hands are buying or is it just people trying to pick bottoms and have have stop losses. Because I know I would be one to do that.

And are you concerned that there has not been much stopping volume, which suggests that the people accumulating believe the price has further to fall?


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## motorway (12 October 2007)

Amount of volume is relative to what is normal for the stock in question.

No short selling means no short covering

This is a negative and a positive
There are no abrupt bounces to generate upward momentum.
But on the other hand it is all new longs that are Buying

The stopping volume is therefore extended over a larger price area
Such a stock is naturally more volatile
price movements can be exaggerated..

A lot of stopping volume in more liquid stocks can be short covering ( at least initially )
So We could expect less volume needed to stop the trend even if that trend is more exaggerated in relation to price..

Hence why if there are strong hands they will buy on a scale down
in order to keep some negative momentum happening..

Sentiment could change quickly esp with AGM not far away..

We do have change of ownership happening

So in one sense the volume price picture can be both clearer and cloudy

motorway


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## Out Too Soon (13 October 2007)

GreatPig said:


> Based on hope or theory?
> 
> I see $1.90 to $2 as a reasonable and long-term support level, but if it breaks that, then 20 cents here we come!
> 
> ...




Well I was burnt before, this time cremated, I just got out at $1  seems 20c support may right after all.


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## motorway (17 October 2007)

juw177 said:


> Great post Motorway. But right now, *I do not see how you can tell if strong hands are buying or is it just people trying to pick bottoms and have have stop losses.* Because I know I would be one to do that.
> 
> And are you concerned that there has not been much stopping volume, which suggests that the people accumulating believe the price has further to fall?




A trend in price is sustained by volume

All the varied Price volume signatures spring from changes in the relationship and behavior between Price and Volume..

The behavior on this chart continues to be inharmonious

Such a condition is unsustainable and has a high degree of probability of signaling a change in trend..

If you look at this chart, You should immediately see a startling change in the price volume behavior ( and from a potentially very oversold condition )

The three blue lines mark identical junctures ( thrusts )

Price and Volume have been in harmony...
Now they are moving at different speeds..

This is unsustainable...

Of course there are two ways this can come back into harmony..
One is a change in trend...

The effort ( the volume ) is not in harmony with the result ( The price movement ) ( Wyckoff Principle of effort versus  result )..

In the context of the trend and position in that trend ?

Is this where momentum traders Buy their breakouts..

The chart does more than suggest "stopping Volume" 
It suggests climatic ending action..

In a stock like this principles can be superimposed
selling Climax , secondary test and Sign of strength can occur almost simultaneously..

And don't underestimate the absence of short selling..

That said potential return is not without real risks
and a change in trend is only one ( But I consider of much higher probability )
way the harmony between Price and Volume can resume..

To Me it looks like a Buy ( and I have been buying )

Always DYOR.... look forward to any discussion

some key words... change in behavior, ease of movement , shortening of thrust, effort , result, inharmonious action, trend and position...

motorway


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## Jight (18 October 2007)

Hi everyone,
I read about Sino today in Financial Review,
their project in China sounds really profitable.
Why is the sp still hitting rock bottm?
anything I miss here?

Cheers

P.S by the way the charts looking really interesting, but i don't how to read it that well yet, is there any thread that teach us beginner the basic reading of chart? I did a search before but there was just too much irrelavant threads poping up.


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## Sean K (18 October 2007)

Jight said:


> P.S by the way the charts looking really interesting, but i don't how to read it that well yet, is there any thread that teach us beginner the basic reading of chart? I did a search before but there was just too much irrelavant threads poping up.



Jight, go to Chart School and read through the site. You'll find all the basic stuff you need to know there. Cheers, kennas


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## juw177 (18 October 2007)

Ok I am getting on board this one. At first it just look like a constant downtrend but Motorway's analysis showed me that the volume is indicating a change coming along.


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## Jight (18 October 2007)

Thx Kennas, now I have much more what I'm looking at.
I got on at 1.015.
Some one just bought like 3000~4000 worth of shares for 1.06 and 1.09.
why do i think he or she just made a costly type fault
J


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## juw177 (18 October 2007)

Jight said:


> Thx Kennas, now I have much more what I'm looking at.
> I got on at 1.015.
> Some one just bought like 3000~4000 worth of shares for 1.06 and 1.09.
> why do i think he or she just made a costly type fault
> J




No it wasnt a mistake. That person can see sellers were getting exhausted and put a buy order for everything on sale under 1.10. No more no less.


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## Jight (18 October 2007)

I see, 
thx for the explaining, now we have huge gap between buyers and seller.
Don't think it'll move again today.
Have to wait till tomorrow to see what would happen then.
Cheers


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## sting (18 October 2007)

Very little for sale under $1.20... its about time this SP reflected its true value. I believe that there was a write up in the Fin Review. Lets hope the trend keeps going.


SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


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## weird (18 October 2007)

sting said:


> Lets hope the trend keeps going.




The trend is down looking at the chart.  I had a quick look at this stock during the day, large spread between the bids and the asks with little action ... not difficult to see why a 9% change could occur in either direction ... would not take much effort to move in either direction. 

 I wonder if any forum attention could have given rise to this, or as mentioned above, a nice poke, like a positive article ?

Looked at the funnies within Commsec ... abit depressing ... unfortunately there is a downward trend there too over the last 3 years.


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## motorway (22 October 2007)

> Looked at the funnies within Commsec ... abit depressing ... unfortunately there is a downward trend there too over the last 3 years.




Of all the things that are really unimportant 
I suspect that the trend in the fundamentals seen on commsec is one of the least important..

That is only a what.... A "What" is only useful as a starting place for asking  how and why..

SSI has been in  start up mode.... creating the business from scratch
The Industry itself is NEW...

What matters is the outlook for the next 6 mths.

Shares outstanding are always a finite number

A scarce resource that the forces of demand and supply are constrained By.

Trends are only whats too... It is How and Why that is always the more important..

From the recent announcement


> By the end of October, 2007, Shanghai Kelo expects
> to have 200 of its existing outlets equipped with SSLA terminals to retail the “5 out of 22” high
> frequency game as well as SSLA’s traditional Sports Lotto products.
> As the additional products from SSLA are marketed within Shanghai Kelo’s existing POS network,
> ...




DYOR always

An  important thing is the technical position...
Supply is  being given it's chance today

It will test and demand will respond

This will help reveal what the real fundamentals that matter really are
and what the technical position from which the real trend will emerge is..

( whose hands are those finite shares being now held by ? )

real = what is effectual = What will produce effect..

The Fundamentals or the trend of the last three years
are no longer real ie They only matter as a what in order to ask how and Why

Again DYOR





> Every upward or downward swing in the market, whether it amounts to
> many points, only a few points, or fractions of a point, consists of
> numerous buying and selling waves. These have a certain duration;
> they run just so long as they can attract a following. When this
> ...




These waves are not anyone's waves but the waves of buying and selling as they are in themselves...price Volume & time, are what measures them..

They Build up and down always producing technical positions
and can not help but reveal intent... because You and "They" have to buy or sell First in order to  profit at some future time...

Opinion and Discussion
motorway


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## juw177 (24 October 2007)

100k order went through today for 1.02. This happened last week as well. But this was not an on market order, I know because I was front of the queue to buy at 1.02 but my order didnt get filled.

Where do these orders come from. Sorry if this sounds noob. Did someone exercise options to buy at the market price? I am confused. Because there was definitely no seller in the queue with 100k at 1.02.


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## motorway (24 October 2007)

It was a crossing

That is one broker was acting for both buyer and seller

The broker can do the trade as long as the trade is done at the best market price...

For example

A broker has an order to Buy SSI

He then gets an order from another client to sell a certain quantity

He then looks to see what the best price he could get for the seller
He then puts an almost simultaneous buy and sell order for the quantity involved ahead of the queue..

Getting the best price for the client selling and buying the stock for the client buying...

Market depth is often misleading
It is the demand and supply above and below the last price that really matters.

This esp with less liquid stocks can  be mainly off screen..

There are various ways such trades can be judged ( as good demand or good supply)

context determines

DYOR
My understanding
My 

motorway


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## motorway (24 October 2007)

> Wyckoff Buying Tests: Nine Classic Tests for Accumulation
> Nine Buying Tests (applied to an average or a stock after a decline)*
> Indication: Determined From:
> 1) Downside price objective accomplished Figure Chart
> ...




Taken from the Hudson Book...

All in (or completing) process

key words

apex forming .. dead centre

key principle/law

cause and effect.....

nice patterns ( of accumulation ? ) on the figure chart ?
rising supports apex forming on the vertical line chart ?

Here are some other  charts  to look at...

the ultimate cause is "earning power" 
But hence not past..

presentation on the Sino Web site

suggests those weekly sale figures are growing

DYOR

opinions for discussion

motorway


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## juw177 (31 October 2007)

Wow. Pretty much everything in the sell queue got snapped up today as soon as a big order took out the only resistance at $1.20. There was an article in the news today about them listing in HK.

No sellers right now, this can be the strong reversal as Motorway predicted.


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## sting (1 November 2007)

Less than 14,000 shares up for grabs on the sell side, buyers have beenpaying good premiums if they want whats on offer.People are starting to realise what these are really worth given China,s penchant for gambling.


SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


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## motorway (1 November 2007)

And what is it worth ?

The POS have relatively fixed cost base
You put them in place you staff them etc

But the revenue growth is not fixed

*In relation to the business operations for the week ended 28 October 2007, total weekly sales
from the Points of Sale (“POS”) achieved another record of RMB 2.69 million, an increase of
14% on the results for the week ended 7 October 2007 as last reported.
Diversification of product offerings has continued to improve the weekly sales of the
Company’s gaming business in China. VLT and welfare lottery sales for the week ended 28
October 2007 achieved a record of RMB 288,143 and RMB 925,452, which is an increase of
15% and 39% respectively on the results last reported for the week ended 7 October 2007. In
the VLT segment, Hong Kou Multifunction Entertainment Centre has achieved operational
profit in 3 out of the past 5 weeks including the immediate past week. The sales of the new
gaming product, sports lottery, have also performed strongly with weekly sales of RMB
192,093 for the first full week of its implementation ended 28 October 2007.*

And where on the curve is this ( That S curve ! )
At the beginning ?

So is the stock worth more all of a sudden ? than just before ?

The pattern of stock prices follow S curves with precursor and overrun characteristics......

Such that the technical position is so important.. weak and strong hands

If We take the original move to the Highs over $5 ... As precursor and overrun ( EW wave enthusiasts might call it wave 1 ? ) what might be the line of least resistance from here ?

In the unsteady steps of the toddler .. We see the fullness of the mature phases to come....toddler steps overrun and lurch.......In the share market
there is so much uncertainty that people pile in and pile out following along.

people sell at bottoms and buy at tops 

All this is what determines the technical position
The floating supply transfers between 
Strong and Weak hands
Technical positions change they are never fixed..

Panic is never far away in the stock market
And how else do We explain at one stage 
people selling nonstop into a down trend that bottoms at .98

As as soon as they have sold ? It goes up again ?

It is  Weak Hands Wyckoff addressed when he said

*It won't go up till after you sell...*




> Have a definite, tangible plan of operation.
> 
> Stick to that plan--a locomotive off the track is
> useless.
> ...





Here is the 8% chart
clearly showing the euphoric "first steps"
now is the reaction back 
The unsteady steps of the toddler ( soon the young child racing away )
Or something else ?

The pattern on the 2% chart suggests usual growth pains and that normal 
transmission will soon continue ...

It is all lifecycles intersecting...

probabilites and opinions
DYOR. Always




motorway


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## sting (2 November 2007)

In a sea or red in my portfolio this is the main green light up 10 cents so far today. 

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


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## juw177 (16 November 2007)

It seems the momentum just stopped dead since it met some resistance at $1.90. Sellers are appearing in the depth and the buyers are not biting and the sell price gets slightly lower each day. It seems to be lack of demand and people who bought into breakout trying to take profits. There needs to be a shake out before the price can keep rising but it is rather difficult when the buying depth is so thin.

What do you think of the current trend motorway?


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## motorway (16 November 2007)

Look at this chart

The columns are drawn by support and resistance .

 what ( or who ) makes support and resistance ?

support and resistance have the effect of  a corral..

where demand and supply can be generated and imbalance will follow..

OK..........action went down... visibly stopped.. a lot of corralling..

The large column breaking up ( with the b in it )

how did that come about ?

That sort of column tends to be a beginning or an end

What is the context here ?

OK If buyers did not get cautious.. 
And demand kept reaching
all the supply would sit on the sidelines

So demand if there is time and space.. eases off to try and build a corral..
and generate some supply....

( In the open range how can you do anything ? You build a corral, hem them in.....trading ranges .. support resistance , hem them in .. allow that column to reverse )

Context is good ending action ... and a column that is a beginning

With a stock that is less liquid... price will tend to be more volatile.. But volume will be more transparent...

( there are less cattle to corral if you like... They will run a round a bit more...But if anyone wants them. It will be hard to hide )

I think where we are is a function of how far it moved up

Where the volume does come in now. Will probably tell all..


juw177

There is probably more to say
so take the discussion on.. 

Buyers are waiting to see what supply will come out
what buyers ? ( you say ) The ones that absorbed all the supply that led to the large column....There is no reason to negate the principles already identified....next juncture is a major "last point of support" ( That is what We are waiting to see confirmed.....or if We are underweight We might be trying now to take advantage of )


All that can (imo ) be read from this chart..
important point is that column is usually a beginning or an end
context points to which


AGM is soon

motorway


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## motorway (16 November 2007)

You can see that the breakout column reversed at the level of the
congestion pattern to the left ( earlier I designated as a pattern of uncertainty and preliminary support ) .... What better place to fish for some supply ?   But .... where is that supply that then overcome demand.. Now

is it still there at this level ?

What about the pattern at the bottom ( a to b ) .. Does it look like a pattern of uncertainty ?.... Look at those rising supports along the trend line..

column b also has penetrated a major supply line

support and resistance move diagonally on the chart ( crucial to know when we do want to go fishing , or do not want to be someones catch)

like following a "creek"

Now where is that creek again ? 


DYOR... A chart is a worth a 1000 words... more to say I am sure..

motorway


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## motorway (16 November 2007)

The half way point is a primary buy zone..
While measured accurately

It is really a vicinity or a zone of possibility
( roughly between 40% and 60% )

notice how not one column in the reaction back as managed to rise above a previous column...what ( who ) ever is creating this support and this resistance..... What is the intent ? What is the character here as  distinct to appearance ?

What should We be looking at and out for ?
Why do stocks go up and down for ?

Where is it we see strength again ?



A primary Buy point occurs  at certain ""positions" in the trend

( what is the trend here ? )

What distinguishes these positions is "how the stock arrived " at those positions

This "how" separates what could be a valid buy point from one that is not..

Buy points though they occur at primary positions  that are easily defined.
It is the character that separates the gold from the dross..

What is the trend ?
What is the position ?

Where is the danger point ?
what would negate our definitions ?

Still there is much more to read from this chart.

motorway


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## juw177 (20 November 2007)

Now that 50% retracement level's support got completely ignored, $1.15 - $1.25 seems to be a strong support point. Makes sense as it was the resistance point when this first broke out.

Still no sign of demand though. The sell down has been on lower volume than the move up so that is a good sign the weak hands are exiting. But it moved the price just the same because nobody was on the other side to soak it up. Where did they go?

Is this a cartel to try to keep me locked in this trade by not giving anyone a chance to sell? Because we all know why cartels don't work, unless it was all one party that was buying up the stock a few weeks ago.


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## motorway (20 November 2007)

> Now that 50% retracement levels support got completely ignored




It is simply a reference point that We as traders/investors use for our purposes ( Buying and selling ) and as a measuring point

The stock itself doesn't even know it exists ( I know what you mean though )

I as posted expect price to be volatile , and volume transparent ( nature of such stocks )... The 50% is measured accurately but is  really a vicinity of potential ( And it still might be "smart" to have commenced buying.. difference between trend and position.. Question should We buy or sell support ? )

price is already going to be volatile ... add in a down day in the context of already correcting ? (Who is it then sells support and buys resistance ?.. note no one has to buy at all.. volume I expect to be transparent refer to previous posts )



> Still no sign of demand though



 Do We still have a degree of passive sponsorship ? If So We saw demand ....



> The sell down has been on lower volume than the move up so that is a good sign the weak hands are exiting




compare different phases of the action

In terms of how much duration, price range and volume..
Are we seeing ( relative ) no supply or no demand ( Within the context )



> But it moved the price just the same because nobody was on the other side to soak it up. Where did they go?




Where were they at any time... sitting on the screen ?

Would the stock moving up and away ( b column ) 
cause you to stop pushing if at all possible ?

separate ,action from reaction.



> Is this a cartel to try to keep me locked in this trade by not giving anyone a chance to sell? Because we all know why cartels don't work, unless it was all one party that was buying up the stock a few weeks ago.




Was there buying ? how much what was the result...
is there selling ? how much what is the result..

Question ... Do We have a bullish or bearish definition
once you decide .. what would negate that definition ?

and so 

Should We be buying support or selling resistance ?


chart...........

P&F support and resistance move diagonally
( What makes the columns change ? )



Did the stock "jump the creek" ( change definition )
Has it backed up back to the edge of that creek ?

( is it in the process of a "test" )

on the P&F a breach of any line is made more ostensible ( That's the word used  )
When a reversal tests that breach and reverses back and through

( not always needed )


B column was very long ( in context )  

allow for a little overbought ..

P&F is very good ( imo)
esp with such stocks..

So I will leave the bar chart to later..

cheers juw177

DYOR...

My opinions



motorway


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## grace (23 November 2007)

There is a lot of TA on this stock, but I'm just wondering on fundamentals should I hold this dog in my portfolio in case it starts making money?


----------



## motorway (23 November 2007)

grace said:


> There is a lot of TA on this stock, but I'm just wondering on fundamentals should I hold this dog in my portfolio in case it starts making money?




You tell Me 

AGM I think is the 30th....

I would expect there would be an update to the sales figures at least

Markets are negative,,,Including HK 

Fundamentally SSI should be seen as a growth story..

I guess you would hold depending on Your view of that future growth..
( and this is where I believe the TA can help )

TA wise it has come back on very low volume
Demand not kicking in... reveals a unreadiness to move "NOW"

But next week ? We will see..........

Still have an accumulation base in place as far as I see.......

And on the fundamentals , new product launched etc...


motorway


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## grace (23 November 2007)

I bought this one because I follow the Speculator in The Bulletin a bit for my speccies.  Anyhow, he got out and I didn't.  He said in the bulletin that perhaps 2008 will be Sino's year (well 2007 certainly isn't)!  The sp collapsed from the time that Sino got the ASX note regarding "did they have enough cash to carry on?".  This, as well as the july/aug correction didn't at all help.  They should be raking in the money really.  One would think it should turn around.  I'll give it until Christmas.....


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## motorway (28 November 2007)

Engines run on horse power
Stocks ( ultimately ) perform on earnings power..



> The benefits of the Company’s product diversification strategy is becoming increasingly
> evident in the past few weeks with Video Lottery Terminals (“VLT”), Welfare lotto and
> Sports Lottery games becoming important contributors to the total weekly sales
> performance. Since we last reported to the ASX on 10 October 2007 for the week ended 7
> ...




But ultimately those  







> who know more about it than the observer cannot conceal their future intentions regarding it. Their plans will be revealed in time by the stock's subsequent action.




Hence the charts.. hence esp P&F charts .. esp with such a stock ( One with very little following - This I think a very important point )

Accumulation--leads to--->markup

smarter money accumulates

how do you accumulate ?

For one You don't chase the offer up...
You buy on declines

Smart money in effect creates Support...

How do you get markup ?
someone does chases the offer up
who ?

By those following along... Who don't want to miss out

OK I anticipated SSI might start a markup
good pattern of accumulation
Nice breakout column
expect to see a last point of support form
and a following ...follow along = markup...

But still there is no following.
Only those who buy on declines ( That is still a good sign )

So the work of accumulation is still in train
and I see no negation of that at this stage

SSI is in a trading range ( wide but...That is the nature of such a stock.. trading range amplitude tends to be wide )

Still a lot can happen fast ( or true not at all )
Such stocks can stop and reverse
can rally vertically from an oversold position..
Did not happen

There is adjustment to the price range
While accumulation ( down and sideways) and fundamentals ( that will matter ) unfold...

So current trend is a trading range
I at this stage define as accumulation



> first they scare you out, then they bore you out, and then if they can they scare you out , again




How You define the trend
Will determine , How You make Your play...


Charts...

The move down ?

1 reversal chart.... No column has risen above the previous, only small step backs

made new low... But found support from those who buy on declines ( that includes Me as a rule , But I was not buying today  )

3 reversal .... We made a 3 box reversal  at the bottom of a spike ( important )... The blue lines mark the "trading range".......

At this stage SSI has those who buy on declines and those who will sell on declines....

We could do with a postive market.. and some more good news at the AGM..

Interesting times

Still very passive sponsorship ( As defined previously.. some buyers do not care about short term gains at all )
Buyers do not seem to want any  following at this stage..

Shakeout ? 

DYOR...
Just My view... 

The virtue of such stocks is if there is value. Then really nothing can stop a following from developing...

IF ( always a big if ) ... Sales have to continue to grow



motorway


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## motorway (4 December 2007)

Move up from the ending action 
could not be seen as a SOS

because the failure of the halfway point
DID not confirm 

A SOS anticipates a LPS

So, even though principles might follow closely.
They would seem to at this stage 
To Not be exactly occurring  together ( stop and reverse )

preliminary support anticipates some sort of ending action ( eg selling climax)
ending action anticipates a rally ( it's automatic  )
But it might not be the real Sign of Strength...

IF PS , SC and AR are correct then what is anticipated is a secondary test ( spring , shakeout , even terminal shakeout )

Trading Range..........builds the cause

anticipates a real Sign of strength........

anticipation is not prediction

With correct anticipation . one can be in harmony
without anticipation ... one must follow along after .

( If a man is walking and at  any moment is on his right leg... then it is anticipated that he will next step forward with his left... Of course if he knows we are watching he might try and hop instead.. But when it matters such false moves are ineffective ... 







> They first have to buy or sell



....)

AGM address... talks about a nationwide rollout
who knows how good this will be ?

I anticipate that I will see more support than resistance
If there is something good..

So looking for a sign of strength and a last point of support..
I have not updated the chart from yesterday..
Price/Volume today is interesting

motorway


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## juw177 (4 December 2007)

Motorway, I am seeing the same thing here. Support is definitely strong but I suspect it may all be manipulation by one party. If there was more demand, we would have seen some support (like you say at 50%) during the retracement from $1.90, but there wasn't.

Instead the price was being marked down on very low volume until a final dump down to 85c to trigger some stop losses. So somebody does not want the price to go up just yet and accumulating between $1 and $1.10.


----------



## motorway (4 December 2007)

> Motorway, I am seeing the same thing here. Support is definitely strong but I suspect it may all be manipulation by one party. If there was more demand, we would have seen some support (like you say at 50%) during the retracement from $1.90, but there wasn't.




Even if there is no direct manipulation... The fact most "follow" along
means people are their own worst enemies... They scare and bore themselves
They jump at the shadows of past price behavior...( a downtrend leaves behind a result that has an echo.... The trading range that follows does the work of scaring the bogey men away )



> Instead the price was being marked down on very low volume until a final dump down to 85c to trigger some stop losses. So somebody does not want the price to go up just yet and accumulating between $1 and $1.10.




Yes.....But it will still be a tiny trading range if it goes up from here... A more extensive trading range can have any number of secondary tests ( more on that later ).. It depends on how many weak hands there are...

How many can a stock like this have ?
Hence ... Why , I was open to a V bottom forming

Of course it ultimately depends on - Is there something good here..

If there is a prize at the end of the race

The more informed can not hop around on one leg too long...
At some stage they have to stop looking disinterested and go for it...

If it rallies from here ... That is almost a V bottom...........

In the "'New Analysis" thread I mentioned cobweb theory....

It anticipates turning points in a market that is all just following along
That is one where no one is very smart..

The pattern on the chart is a cobweb pattern of demand in excess of supply
it would predict next turning point at $2.08........

Buy if there is smart money involved that will be manipulated higher or lower
( manipulated means non random not anything sinister )..

So don't take it too seriously
The pattern is what matters

And the only thing that matters really is - is  there smart money involved.

motorway


----------



## motorway (4 December 2007)

Hinge , dead centre , springboard.............

Evocative words



> A more extensive trading range can have any number of secondary tests ( more on that later ).





The action marked ST was a test of the ending action..

The question asked is about the nature intent and the quality of the action
seen to be "ending" the ST is what confirms

OK now the green arrows point to another test , another question asked..

The two small bars represent a test of the  first test..of the 

what is it ? spring or shakeout ?

You could have bought the spring
You certainly could have bought the test of that spring...

Demand is seen in the last bar 

The prior bar was a hinge ( the green arrow )....

OK 







> Whenever you study the tape or a chart, consider what you see there
> as an expression of the forces that lift and depress prices. Study
> your charts not with an eye to comparing the shapes of the
> formations, but from the viewpoint of the behavior of the stock; the
> ...




and



> A chart indication means that a stock is probably going so far in a
> certain direction only so long as its behavior continues to conform
> with the original indication. You must always be on the alert for
> changes and be expecting your chart indications to be reversed.





So the definition ( bullish or bearish ) is always open to new information

testing in some sense is continuous

A test is a response



> "The study of responses ... is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market."
> - Rollo Tape (Richard Wyckoff), 1908




P&F is on the Verge of doing something it could not do on the way down from the AR ... It is close to exceeding a previous box.. After pausing while some volume went through...( again signs of demand )

Waves gather a following
how they do this 
and what to do about it

 Is the method

DYOR 

motorway


----------



## motorway (16 December 2007)

here is a .05x1  ...

A hinge point suggests 
an area where one side is finished
and a 







> hare's breath



 more from the other side
is all it might take...

I think any move to $1.15 would be interesting

floors Vs ceilings

more floor ?

Above $1.15 the 







> mid pattern rally




Will look more like a precusor

What is called an  Automatic rally on the bar chart
was often called the mid pattern rally
of a P&F fulcrum pattern

DYOR

motorway


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## grace (31 December 2007)

This is my biggest dog of 2007.  Not many people on the sellers side now. Should be good for a move...... hope so.


----------



## motorway (1 January 2008)

grace said:


> This is my biggest dog of 2007.  Not many people on the sellers side now. Should be good for a move...... hope so.






> A hinge point suggests
> an area where one side is finished




The only real volume 
was one crossing late reported
So if We put that to one side 

We would seem to be definitely at a major juncture

ie   

a "hinge"



> This is my biggest dog of 2007




The right/wrong stock at the wrong/right time ?

Timing matters
timing is about identifying turning points
about defining positions

for some that may mean only buying  all time new highs
for others it means when it has stopped going down
and the "supply" lines are exhausted..


Of interest

http://thechinabusinessnetwork.com/...land-China-Market-For-Legalized-Gambling.html


charts

The numbers correspond to sale milestones ( where the blue arrows on the 1 box chart are )
there is a change in the behavior in relation to them

Yes it moves but differently




> Considerable light is thrown on the technical strength or weakness of the market and special stocks by their action in the face of important news




dyor
be a lone wolf  in YOUR decision making

tip sheets, broker reports, company releases... forum posts 
are not what matters

The size of the automatic rally
has a special indication I think
as regards the "supply lines" of the bears

oversold ? over extended ? 
We will see for sure when (if  )
the bulls launch a counter attack..

trends are sustained by rotation
buyers have to become sellers or sellers have to become buyers
trends require energy..

Question
could SSI be a superstock ?

see Superstocks by Kenneth L Fisher ..

esp get rich with the glitch........

look at the speed and spacing of the postings to the chart in relation to the weekly sales .
look at the the large correction to the initial move up to the highs.
decide for yourself what is the action right now





motorway


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## grace (1 January 2008)

Motorway, I am not so educated as you on TA, but I do see some resistance forming at about $1.  Fundamentally, they have first mover advantage of being in China before others.  They need to quickly move on cities other than Shanghai now that they have the 2 year period of operation required for this per Chinese regulations.  This will cost but I do hope they get moving on this as a priority.  Hopefully, the sp has hit bottem.......


----------



## motorway (1 January 2008)

Grace

from the AGM



> Since we already have over 2 years
> of trading track record and a large number of outlets established, we now qualify for a
> licence to *franchise *our operations throughout China. This is one option that would enable
> us to fast track our business model into other provinces and cities while *minimizing capital
> requirements*.





With the TA 

shares are a finite quantity.. They are subject to the law of demand and supply.......when  supply is overcoming demand prices go down, as they go down there is a change of ownership...

To keep going down those who bought have to in turn become sellers..

You can only sell shares you have ( forget short selling it does not apply here )...So who is holding becomes important...that is strong or weak hands..

The 3 box reversal chart shows a typical gold rush and then adjustment

maybe sales did not kick in as fast as some would have liked
maybe there was concern with where the funding for expansion was to come from...maybe the falling sharprice fed on itself

This is all speculation that gets us nowhere

On the 3 box chart look at how tight the recent bottoms have become
and how ordered the formations

There was NO follow through to the downside anymore ( the last two horizontal lines ) But there was a good move up on the first bounce ( I call it a precursor because of where it has occurred... a move that is only ahead in terms of time not price)

It is good to know all the fundamental story
it is good context

But the fundamentals that matter are always of tomorrow . 
What is the real outlook for the next 6 mths ?

The next 6 mths seems to have a large bearing on markets and stocks

hence the importance of the charts

eg "would enable
us to fast track our business model into other provinces and cities while minimizing capital
requirements."

Is this true  ?

If it is as good as it sounds 
then demand will be seen to start to overcome supply
We will see this first
in the lack of downside follow through
in the appearance of clear support
in some tightness and order
and in some precursor movement

shares finite held by strong or weak hands
creates the technical position that
news will build on

news  is always old news
in the sense that decisions with consequences have already been taken

eg  the expansion might not need much capital funding


There is a line up of interests here...
Creating a legal industry and crowding out the illegal

huge potential no doubt..

articles like in the bulletin
tend to only bring in weak hands

You point to the lack of sellers in the depth

once it is obvious that there is a goldmine
at what price will there be sellers ?

( everyone will be a strong hand )

That is why looking to go long
I am looking at the down moves
that is where the "springboard" IS

look at the chart
can you not see the bounces off support ?


BUT

that is only now... No reward without risk

so maybe the springboard breaks 

As soon as the next sales are announced I will update the chart
and We will see the trend..the 1 2 3 are millions Rmb....

It took very little effort ( volume ) to produce the column I am calling a precursor.............little effort produced a pleasing result . And on the way back there was no downside follow through

and it is now at a hinge 

again DYOR 

motorway


----------



## juw177 (15 February 2008)

Volume for this stock has been low and no large buyers are stepping up to absorb the weak hands that are trying to exit. Those hands are holders that have been waiting for a turn around and increase in liquidity.

Any other comments on the price? Motorway, is it a good idea to set a time stop in these situations?


----------



## motorway (15 February 2008)

Mkt Dynamics are such that a lot of stocks like this are on the sidelines

So these stocks are being allowed to sag.... and in many cases the time horizon of the sellers and buyers are even further apart than normal

eg the sellers wants to sell NOW 
but the buyer wants to buy sometime
but only at a good price 

Volume has been very low ( in that context a  good sign ? )
There has been some ( maybe just a very few ) buyers

who maybe put a bid for 5000 shares with large spread between bid offer
then move it down further etc..

There is a bid for 20,000 shares at .74 atm ( and it was just 510 shares I think that took it down to .75 after one of those bids ( 5000 ) was taken at .82 )..... 

So it depends on your time horizon

half yearly soon

In the XAO thread I mentioned 
to expect delayed endings ( esp with stocks like this )

We had signs of ending action
now that is delayed ( no guarantee though  )

charts are interesting ( delayed ending on the P&F which has practically stopped ( what does that say about risk etc )

there was a indication earlier
and a retest of this .75 area now

( with the 20,000 bid appeared )

motorway

I will post some charts later
and I have some more thoughts....


----------



## rub92me (15 February 2008)

motorway said:


> Volume has been very low ( in that context a  good sign ? )
> There has been some ( maybe just a very few ) buyers
> who maybe put a bid for 5000 shares with large spread between bid offer
> then move it down further etc.



Don't tell anyone, but I've been one of those the last 4 weeks.  Have to be very patient though not to rock the boat too much. I have a 2-3 year horizon on this. Will be watching closely whether they hit their targets though.


----------



## juw177 (15 February 2008)

Funny how the action happened right after my post. Big change in market depth today after the release of the demerger plans.

There was a (little) bit of buying interest in GCN after the ann too, which has also been in a strong downtrend. Although I admit I don't know too much about the fundamentals of the 2 entities, SSI is stronger technically so I am predicting SSI SP will benefit from the demerger.


----------



## grace (15 February 2008)

rub92me said:


> Don't tell anyone, but I've been one of those the last 4 weeks.  Have to be very patient though not to rock the boat too much. I have a 2-3 year horizon on this. Will be watching closely whether they hit their targets though.




Was really getting frustrated with this one and I nearlly sold it yesterday - could have been to you.  This is my dog of 2007. Perhaps will not be my dog of 08 one hopes.  The Chinese love to gamble, we just need them to do it legally!


----------



## motorway (15 February 2008)

> we just need them to do it legally




That's what SSI wants

and importantly that's what the Chinese Government appears to want as well...

Qtrly did not give much update

( setting the stage for the half yearly ? )

but did confirm intention to be moving to profit calendar 2008
and did say something about fixed odds sports betting launch in Shanghai
in April...

Half year should reveal more..

This "demerger" is free shares to SSI holders it would seem..

But the why might be more important

setting the stage for ? ( just thinking out loud.. There is listing on another exchange still to be confirmed etc  )

always DYOR...



> Was really getting frustrated with this one and I nearlly sold it yesterday





Accumulation phases are boring and scary ( to the impatient and the noise trader ( weak hand )
and a delayed ending 
is what it sounds
"Market Conditions"
have  kept any new buying on the sidelines ( new blood that would look ahead)
and has allowed a another chance for  "passive sponsorship" to bore and scare and bore again... ( IF so there are not many left to bore or scare ? )



in the XAO thread I said *T*ime eats things...





> I have a 2-3 year horizon on this




I think 6 months maybe really 6 weeks is long term at the moment

A market like this shortens time horizons
by doing so it creates opportunity

OF COURSE only if there is opportunity


and only if there IS accumulation

maybe all depends on how smart rub92me is

just observations and opinion

motorway


----------



## motorway (16 February 2008)

What a delayed ending is  should be be clear from the charts...

Why are we below the second last blue line ?

I would say the fall in the general mkt...


there was No sell off in SSI
but demand did retreat


and the few sellers have had to come down to meet them

so supply and demand curves both shifted down ( there is very little oscillation ! )

 Volume is low because ( so far ) supply is low.. low selling presure


There is a build up of congestion on the P&F

"cause"

motorway


----------



## motorway (17 February 2008)

> Why are we below the second last blue line ?
> 
> I would say the fall in the general mkt...




so let's remove the that factor and look at a 

Comparative Chart !


So that IS how it appears....

I mentioned some indications
Chartcraft P&F have their own definition of a Selling Climax

It is a weekly key reversal ( so a lower low for the week But a Higher close )
occurring at 52 week lows.... There have been two of those recently..

But  what is missing ? and still is missing ? The Volume !

The relative chart is STRONGER than the Stock chart...



> The relative price (can) give a more realistic description of how a
> stock moves. It may reveal, for example, that a stock’s poor
> performance is not so poor after all
> 
> ...




ie:  This stock has been in a two year down trend...
           So does the recent "stronger performance" 
represent new action or a reaction ( and that down trend continues )

Some Volume would reveal ( where the volume comes in )

But We do have the flow of the chart
that "mid pattern rally"  
and the current lack of supply



> Will be watching closely whether they hit their targets though.




and the expansion plans
and the listing plans
etc

and mkt action that might suggest the next 6 mths hold promise ..


motorway


----------



## grace (28 February 2008)

1/2 yearly out today.  Whilst revenue was up, exchange rate hit that hard.

One thing that was mentioned was that sports betting alone, commencing in April 08 has the potential of exceeding all other gambling products combined.  This will be the first legalised sports betting in China.  Further expansion also mentioned into other parts of China.

Based on fundamentals, I'm not going to sell.


----------



## grace (28 February 2008)

Also interesting valuation compared to Market Cap of $46 million! (per the ASX release today page 2)

Impairment testing/Independent Valuation of gaming assets

Impairment testing is performed annually for goodwill and intangible assets. 

This year BDO Kendalls Corporate Finance (?BDO?), a division of BDO Kendalls, one of Australia's largest professional accounting and advisory practices, carried out an independent valuation of the equity and intangible assets of China Entertainment Holdings Limited (?CEH?) acquired by SSI in November 2005 (essentially the gaming rights of the Company at that time).
These gaming rights, which have a carrying value of $68.8m in the Balance Sheet, were valued at between $66.9m and $77.2m by BDO.

As there have been many enhancements to the gaming business since purchase, BDO also conducted an independent valuation of all of the Company?s gaming rights in addition to the rights included in the
Balance Sheet (including Welfare Lotto and Keno, Sports Lotto and Sports Betting but excluding VLT) and arrived at a value of between $788m and $905m, equivalent to approximately A$11.02 and A$12.65 per SSI share fully diluted.

This represents a substantial premium over and above the total current market capitalisation of SSI and demonstrates the significant mismatch between the Company?s fundamental enterprise value relative to the current market price of SSI shares.


----------



## motorway (29 February 2008)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23258858-5001942,00.html



> While virtually all of the globe's share markets have been in sell-off mode since August last year, when the reality of the US sub-prime crisis -- and its global ramifications -- became too stark to ignore, the Asian markets have suffered the most.
> 
> As the accompanying chart shows, emerging-markets investors -- by definition, among the most risk-comfortable investors of all -- have dropped Asia like a hot BRIC.
> 
> As State Street Global Markets Research puts it, fund flows into emerging Asia "hobble from feeble to pathetic". In fact, the funds flow has fallen to nil. While there has been sustained buying of emerging European stock markets, so far in 2008, emerging-markets investors have switched the destination of their investments from Asia to South America. But the flows will return, say local Asian investors, because Asia has a better fundamental story than the other regions.




SSI is a micro cap and a China Story stock ( even if it is listed on the ASX )



> But the flows will return




So how is it travelling ?

The first pattern marked on this chart
followed the spike up ( That retraced back )

How do you get such a pattern ?

( I would refer anyone interested to the PPT presentation In the Wyckoff Method thread )

It is a dampened oscillation -----------> supply is rotating away from demand. Why ? probably an expectation that prices will rise based on the prior spike and the anticipation of a support level...

But prices only go up if there is demand... and If you look at the months marked and at the excerpt above , maybe we can see why  Demand did not respond

supply waiting for demand was a test.
demand shifting down was a response...

TEST -> RESPONSE

OK The second pattern marked is an expanding oscillation

Demand rotated up ( we saw that also in the mkt depth 







> Funny how the action happened right after my post. Big change in market depth today after the release of the demerger plans.



)
The response was a lot of supply ( relative ) seeming relieved to find buyers of quantity.

Now.... That extra supply  (







> no large buyers are stepping up to absorb the weak hands that are trying to exit. Those hands are holders that have been waiting for a turn around and increase in liquidity.




( Good insights by juw177 )

was a very important test.

It could have overcome the demand . Or demand could absorb it and start to overcome  the supply...
( demand shifting up )...

This is what has happened ( so far  )

We also had a very good test when 

 Tim Boreham ... Gave his judgement that there was no compelling reason to invest in "this direct boat to China" .

That should have given the "weak hands " a good shake
and maybe puts a good light ( in context ) on the buyers..

It is almost like that
99.9% of the time mkt participants Under react
and 
0.01% of the time they massively overreact..

People just follow along..

I said 







> Some Volume would reveal ( where the volume comes in )




Well I want to see more..

And  some urgency.. ( SSI can not be oversold unless the volume and/or price response reveals it to be so )

That said I still am of the opinion that there has been accumulation occurring
from significantly higher prices ( refer to the thread )

Yes The valuation and the prospects appear to be the goods





motorway


----------



## motorway (19 March 2008)

> That said I still am of the opinion that there has been accumulation occurring
> from significantly higher prices ( refer to the thread )
> 
> Yes The valuation and the prospects appear to be the goods




Welcome to the "joys" of passive sponsorship
in the roller coaster that is the mkt ( what mkt ! ) atm..

Broken companies and/or  Broken Shareholders

Only need one to make for a wild ride..

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23375372-5001942,00.html



> Small-cap fund managers watched in horror as even their soundest businesses took 20-30 per cent hits on the market, gapping (falling very sharply with no trades occurring at the price points in between) all over the place.
> 
> " The market was down 14 per cent, but there was catastrophic gapping in some of the small-cap stocks.
> 
> ...






> Nigel Douglas, head of research at van Eyk, says small-cap stocks are "unavoidably high-beta" (that is, show a high correlation to the movement of the market index).
> ---
> "Small-caps tend to rise faster and fall faster than large-caps, but when the market sells off, there tends to be a flight to low-beta stocks.
> -------
> ...





Some snatches from the article..

SSI is not even a small cap

Sort of a micro micro cap ...


Market depth returned today

DYOR ( always )




The long tail down is a *possible* sign 
of a very oversold condition

reversal with volume
would tend to confirm
no reversal ( and no volume )
Then it is not oversold



> Some Volume would reveal ( where the volume comes in )





motorway


----------



## motorway (3 April 2008)

> Welcome to the "joys" of passive sponsorship
> in the roller coaster that is the mkt ( what mkt ! ) atm..
> 
> Broken companies and/or *Broken Shareholders*
> Only need one to make for a wild ride..




Opes Prime ?

As far as I know

China still exists 




> The *long tail *down is a possible sign
> of a very oversold condition
> 
> reversal with volume
> would tend to confirm





 A triple delayed ending ?????



> ( what mkt ! )




Bit of a market visible now...........

And what are markets for ?

Transfer of Ownership
Strong and Weak hands
Risk for Reward

I think the market action has given good lessons
about weak hands and what they are ...

About Risk and Reward...
about transfer..


Discussion
DYOR
motorway


----------



## grace (3 April 2008)

Motoway, do you actually own any of these?

I only just found all of your posting on another thread in relation to the overall market........

Soccor and basketball betting starts this month with Sino....

Any sign of a turnaround coming in the near future?


----------



## motorway (3 April 2008)

grace said:


> Motoway, do you actually own any of these?
> 
> I only just found all of your posting on another thread in relation to the overall market........
> 
> ...




Yes.....And have been buying and trying to buy..

There has been a lot selling driving this down
But what is sold can not be sold again
By the same person in the same circumstances

We can not separate the position of the market from individuals stocks.

What looks like a broken stock.. Can just be in fact  broken shareholders


In the mean time... The fundamentals that will matter unfold and become known ( Not what has been , but what will be )...

We are seeing just how much
The market is about following
and at times like this following can be a series of forced moves

But  eventually demand and supply meet .
Those underwater stop holding their breath
others calm down and realize they will be able to, until
they are back above water

They realize that ,that time will come.

Yes SSI is to launch sports betting
and continues to move to profitability (dyor )

( DYOR !)...............I have even been buying a few GCN ( check out their announcements .

THE FUNDAMENTALS of SSI have never changed as far as I can see 

52 week highs and lows never can be explained much by Fundamentals..
certainly not by the fundamentals that will matter..

*Any sign of a turnaround coming in the near future?*

I would say Absolutely...We have had significant selling..




> It is difficult to over-emphasize the importance of studying the technical position, particularly when making a speculative commitment. Many people may say, What is a weak or a strong technical position? My reply is, in brief, that a stock is in a weak technical position on the bull side when it has been purchased and is held by a large number of outside speculators; when most of these are looking for a profit; when the price of the stock has advanced to a point where no further buying can be stimulated for the time being. It stands to reason that when buying power is exhausted a stock must decline, no matter how strong its finances, management or earning power.
> 
> On the other hand




Absolutely is My judgement for My purpose

*DYOR*.......A delayed ending is still an ending ( actually potentially  a more powerful one )

You know what SSI's expectations are for sports betting ?
and supposed to launch this month !

motorway


----------



## nomore4s (3 April 2008)

Quick question regarding the record date for the GCN dist.

Do shares purchased on the record date (27.03.08) entitle you to the GCN shares or did you need to purchase on the 26.03.08? This always confuses me for some reason




> GCN will be demerged from SSI with SSI’s 51% shareholding in GCN to be distributed “in specie” on a pro rata basis to SSI shareholders. Based on the existing issued capital of SSI, each 1 share in SSI held as at the record date of 27 March 2008 will be entitled to a distribution of approximately 3.2 shares in GCN.


----------



## motorway (3 April 2008)

here you go



> As outlined in the explanatory memorandum accompanying the Notice of Meeting dated 15
> February 2008, the capital reduction and in specie distribution of GoConnect Ltd’s shares will not
> be effected until the Company has received the shareholders’ approval as well as the favourable
> rulings from the Australian Taxation Office (“ATO”).
> ...




So I think it is on track
But that those dates are not set in stone yet...


On GCN



> GoConnect Ltd (“GoConnect”) is pleased to announce the signing of a Memorandum of
> Understanding (“MOU”) with Beijing’s Hope Software Co Ltd (“Hope”) to establish an equal
> partnership in order to cooperate on the development and operation of a Business-to-Business
> (“B2B”), online networking platform, for both businesses within Mainland China and
> ...


----------



## juw177 (4 April 2008)

I've been very patient with this one but it is frustrating that the little bit of demand to tip the balance has only appeared now (last time was at $1).

Now let's see how this plays out.


----------



## rub92me (7 April 2008)

juw177 said:


> I've been very patient with this one but it is frustrating that the little bit of demand to tip the balance has only appeared now (last time was at $1).
> Now let's see how this plays out.



So far, so good. Buy side is building without being immediately sold down. Volume still low though, but at least there seems to be somewhat of a market now.


----------



## rub92me (17 April 2008)

Interesting article here with some background on gambling in China:
http://www.radio86.co.uk/explore-learn/business-china/4991/all-bets-are-on-lottery-games-and-gambling-in-china

From the article:


> While China is undecided on whether to legalize more forms of gambling on its territory, it is also facing a virtual enemy, which takes the form of counterfeit lottery websites that threaten to undermine its entire lottery system. In order to vanquish this foe, the sale of lotteries on the internet was banned in China at the beginning of 2008. According experts, the move stemmed from online security problems, which made it difficult for buyers to distinguish between legal and illegal lottery websites because some counterfeit sites mimic in appearance state-run lottery sites, CRI writes.
> 
> Despite its evils, the online gambling market presents a major opportunity for the government to fatten its money chests. As yet, no clear information on the future of organized gambling in China has been imparted by the government. However, Researchandmarkets.com says that there have been subtle signs of China leaning towards the possibility of liberalizing the market somewhat to permit additional lotteries, as well as horse racing and casinos.
> 
> ...


----------



## motorway (19 April 2008)

> due to be introduced by SSLA in April
> 2008. SKIM is in the process of fitting out the first outlet in preparation for the launch. Our strong
> positioning in what will be the first legalised sports betting outlet in Shanghai and based on the size of the
> illegal sports betting spend, provides us with confidence that future revenues from sports betting have the
> ...





It is interesting to look back at the chart and mark certain zones 
has Tricom , Opes   "whoelse"  etc  ( direct and/or indirect effects ) etc...........

But what is more interesting is the mirror image recoveries since

April is ( from the half year report ) potentially  a very significant month.

GCN ( demerger !? ) & SSI charts

motorway


----------



## grace (8 May 2008)

Well, looks like we have our sports betting now with Olympic style games as well.  Now for a roll out of sports betting across all stores to get that turnover up.



> Sino Strategic International Ltd (“SSI”) is pleased to announce that its new store at Hong Kou in Shanghai was opened on 30 April 2008. This store has been fitted out to a high standard to be the flagship store for SSI’s wholly owned subsidiary Shanghai Kelo, for the sale of the complete range of Sports Lottery games.
> 
> The opening of the store incorporated the launch of a series of new Beijing Olympic themed games and has received favourable local media publicity. Hong Kou has also been equipped to distribute sports betting games.


----------



## motorway (8 May 2008)

Is there potentially an increasing "Population of Interest" 
regarding this theme ?

Gambling + China + favourable ? developments in GCN

esp if revenue grows from the base now established.

Also - Both stocks were sold down and out - the last "drop" involving opes prime , so the line of least resistance in that "population of interest" is one of increase---surely ?

Is there a steady stream of favourable events ?

Seems yes.

Could there be a Decrease in the "elasticity of Supply" ?

Such as the price rises existing holders will want to sell less quantity
with  new demand tending to  make supply rotate away.

Will the  Supply Curve shift UP as well.. ?

Such that people start to hold and hoard such a "good thing""
So that at any price there will be less shares on offer .

( so even if price falls ... supply will not be shaken out )


Could there be an increase in the "elasticity of demand"

Such that if price does fall , it is seen as a buying opportunity ,  more and more shares are demanded than previously observed when prices fell. A Clear behavioral change ---> Sign of real imperative value.

Will the demand Curve shift UP too ?

Such that more is demanded at every price-------> A Gold Rush ( hopefully because there is real gold )


SSI to be seen as having significant long term potential and growth.
First mover advantage... lack of competition etc
& GROWING REVENUE..

------->

Charts will reveal.... Because DEMAND and SUPPLY draws them..
And all that matters is DEMAND and SUPPLY...

GCN has broken out and leads atm ....The  last annoucement "interesting"" & a good response.

Still demerger in play at this stage too


SSI ...... moved up formed a hinge ( marked on chart )
resting there.... 

Area of adjustment . Waiting on that " new demand "

Some volume yesterday
that took out some more patient supply imo


I Want to see 
The offers at .80 to .90 remain "Patient" ---->Behavioral Change,
and Demand ( rotating and shifting ) (have to ) respond

to the "good news" 

esp Sports Betting


At this stage Supply has (imo) rotated away
It has become patient....

For how long ?  

I want to see demand overcome this supply from this 
Hinge--------A sign of strength

Following on from the '' Oversold Condition "


I hold both stocks

motorway


----------



## rub92me (20 May 2008)

It looks like there is quite a big buyer on the scene that is willing to notch up his bid every time the gap between buy and sell is closing to a reasonable level. Sellers are still very reluctant to part with their shares by the look of things. I'm in no hurry to sell myself, but glad it is moving in the right direction and I'm in the plus.


----------



## motorway (21 May 2008)

> Is there potentially an increasing "Population of Interest"
> regarding this theme ?




It is looking promising...

Chart-----.05 x 1 ( an arithmetic Scaled chart )

The three blue arrows earlier defined as potential accumulation..

So why are prices lower ?  The dynamics of delayed ending... making use of 
"conditions" .


The red arrow I do not define as distribution.

The last area marked with the blue line
is an extremely neat and tight formation
with an obvious rejection of the lows

Three zones of accumulation ...With two above the current price
Should mean a lack of supply

Should mean we see the dynamics at play now continue..

A delayed ending is often seen after a significant decline
( Think of sentiment after a significant decline---in conjunction with passive buying + something like opes prime "conditions" )


Demand and Supply dynamics are evolving as outlined in the previous post.

note how the chart tends to flow along 45 degree angles
A characteristic of P&F 
and related to price objectives....

Horizontal zones both exhaust and generate.

Change of ownership and sentiment
means real support and resistance moves diagonally

congestion zones now represent "old" resistance..

( where is the creek ?---Where the volume comes in )


Should never means,  must 

motorway


----------



## JTLP (21 May 2008)

Motorway...i've gotta tell you...i love your posts. Very funny 

But can you help a young soldier like me...are you saying that SSI has somewhat bottomed out...and is moving in an uptrend? That accumulation took place at the high 50's, low 60's?

Thanks


----------



## motorway (21 May 2008)

JTLP said:


> Motorway...i've gotta tell you...i love your posts. Very funny
> 
> But can you help a young soldier like me...are you saying that SSI has somewhat bottomed out...and is moving in an uptrend? That accumulation took place at the high 50's, low 60's?
> 
> Thanks




Hi JTLP .... It is my view accumulation of a passive kind

The kind that sits pat at the bid and if filled moves that bid lower

has occurred from just below $2.00

It is my view that the mkt fall and things like opes prime
made that an easy way to get stock at lower and lower prices

hence the "delayed ending" to the accumulation phase

under $1.00 and from the bottom
the behaviour changed

the easy low hanging fruit was no longer available

The current action is still in my view accumulation
We have not had a breakout YET   

It is the sort of accumulation that is relentless
it chases at the offer BUT
it scales in with the express purpose of not moving the price up too far each day

STEALTH

If my view is correct there should be a vacuum in the overhead supply
and any real breakout will be the real deal

( a proper JUMP )

and the congestion zones will not act as real resistance

that was likely crossed at the red trend line..

My view only

for amusement purposes   only

DYOR 

cheers JTLP


----------



## motorway (9 August 2008)

> This note focuses on a pointwise estimation of the Hurst exponent H, and on its reliability as a method to detect breaking signals inside a given financial time-series. The idea is that, although classical H can give information about the average scaling behavior of data, its estimation over proper subsamples of the original time-series can reveal variability which is perfectly compliant with sudden changes in direction that are typical of financial markets.
> 
> The behavior of the pointwise estimation of H is then analyzed on different proxies of market price levels (namely: log-returns, squared log-returns, and the absolute value of log-returns), focusing on the relationships existing with bursts in the markets and those observable in such indicators as well.
> 
> *In this context we find that breaks in the upward/downward tendency of financial time-series are generally anticipated by analogous movements in the estimated H values *given on the squared log-returns.




Or in other words



> From the general formations on the figure charts we are able to detect accumulation or distribution, and we see, clearly marked, the lines of support and supply.
> 
> We can also identify the marking up and marking down periods to excellent advantage by means of these charts.
> 
> The most valuable feature of Figure Charts, however, is their horizontal formations, which, (in many  cases have the ability to ) forecast .......It is in these horizontal formations, or congestion areas, on the figure chart that we find the greatest aid




Remember what is congestion
how is it related to empty and full ?

not only is the figure chart like the coastline of England
But it is also like the flow of a river



> It is the change from dullness to activity (regardless of the
> absolute, i. e., the actual volume), or the reverse, which is
> important; and the manner in which the change occurs. These changes
> put us on guard to watch for further indications which will either
> ...






It is not important to really read the first quote
But for those who wish to go further in their understanding by reading past the "first line"

They may like to compare it and it"s meaning to the other quotes that date back as much as 100 years.



> It seems to us, based on our experience, that Tape Reading is the defined science of determining from the tape the immediate trend of prices. It is a method of forecasting, from what appears on the tape now in the moment, what is likely to appear in the immediate future.




forecasting has a special meaning
different to prediction


OK also posting the three box chart
NOTE not one downside count is now active
or not been negated

what does that mean ?

Well it is not a prediction 
But a MEASURE as is the "count" on the 1 Box reversal



> We also wish to impress on you the importance of using your 3 reversal  figure chart to compare with your 1 reversal




What does it measure

the same thing "BOX COUNTING"  ( google it in relation to the H exponent )
is used for now...the change in pointwise H exponent which


[*In this context we find that breaks in the upward/downward tendency of financial time-series are generally anticipated by analogous movements in the estimated H values *

To understand the simple and how profound it can be
I find takes work... not mere ideas but application

I anticapte a strong breakout from the current
postion 


Fundamentals are what is thought
Sentiment is what is felt
Technicals are what is happening

Various feed-backs at work
We can see this at work in the market as a whole
these three factors weaving reality

PERCEPTIONS

DYOR
Discussion



motorway

Play what is in front of you
But know what the structure is. 

PS the blue question mark relates to the question
of "character".. a move past that point change the definitions
suddenly it all becomes accumulation .... until it changes again


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## motorway (16 August 2008)

Interior ballistics
Exterior ballistics

( were common  analogies used in trying to convey what a "count" was about )


Update of the 3 box reversal chart


A new vertical count --

( Exterior ballistics  )

( The software is "objectively" placing them----Then you could call a P&F chart an Objective Wave Chart----"Objective" is a given )


As mentioned in the XAO  thread

 A P&F word is ostensible...........


Ostensible <----or----> Profound

IS always the question of every movement ...

ie... Is a particular movement significant ( or not )

in crossing ,eg, a Diagonal line ?

The question is the  crossing ostensible ( only an appearance )
or is it profound !

Like Caesar crossing the Rubicon

 like the proverbial "straw"

A "Critical Point" 

That builds bit by bit
But then happens all at once ( non linear )

Well , It certainly appears so (imo) 
P&F  practitioners will take note of the 
current "test"............

An old P&F saying is that
Price  both repels and attracts volume..
ie one should not mistake volume with  liquidity...


DYOR......always
Only for Discussion ( always )

Stocks will do what they will do regardless

I hold


motorway


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## motorway (16 August 2008)

> The methods of determining
> price objectives come from the science of ballistics and have been
> used in Point and Figure analysis for many decades.
> 
> ...




The above quote is from Thomas Dorsey

He in turn is quoting from
Victor de Villiers ( in particular the second book written in conjunction with Owen Taylor )...

Victor de villiers was a close associate of Richard Wyckoff

until they appeared to disagree on market technique and went their separate ways......... Ballistics was only one analogy used but  one esp with vertical counts ( but not only )


some background for those interested....

Three degrees of meaning

Count
objective
Target

Prediction does not come into it....

an Objective measure ( that word "objective again  )

As the P&F literature says
to be fulfilled or negated
and hence ---------> inform ( important point )
What do you think happens at turning points ?
What happens when stocks keep making and fulfilling their counts ?
etc

Remember the P&F chart is the chart that DOES NOT MOVE ( unless )...


motorway


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## grace (16 August 2008)

Yes Motorway, I noticed the turnaround in this one.  I might get my money back yet hey?  Dog of 07, ??? of 08.


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## motorway (26 August 2008)

grace said:


> Yes Motorway, I noticed the turnaround in this one.  I might get my money back yet hey?  Dog of 07, ??? of 08.




You are gracing the thread Grace 

I would say looking very good
$1.30 might be the real "tipping point"

( That could signal a real break out of the congestion zone on the chart
and crystallize the sentiment )

DYOR

motorway


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## motorway (27 August 2008)

> I would say looking very good
> $1.30 might be the real "tipping point"
> 
> ( That could signal a real break out of the congestion zone on the chart
> and crystallize the sentiment )





Those antelopes I mentioned in the CXY thread
can sure be cautious and "Hesitant"

Is there good pasture here ??

Preliminary Report might tell us a few things
Volume was better today... I think it was a small parcel 55 shares ?
That made the close $1.10

The is the .05 x 3 chart 
There is very good width on the .05 X 1 chart

We can see maybe what I mean about $1.30

With the increase of volume
this area of congestion
is growing in importance ..

Do not mistake a method of a charting
with a system of trading...

Something I find commonplace
esp with P&F

That is why I have turned off the red Os
even on this 
3 box reversal chart.


motorway


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## JTLP (27 August 2008)

Hi Motorway,

Looking at your chart I think I am seeing consolidation around this level. Do you think people are accumulating stock atm? Or do you think that phase happened around the base of the graph (60 - 80 cent range).

Do you also think that this level it is hovering at now will act as support/resistance in the future?

Your chart seems to suggest that there are not many resistances on the way back up...1.60, 1.80 and the 2.30 mark...correct?

Thanks and I really appreciate the learning curve!


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## nomore4s (28 August 2008)

JTLP said:


> Hi Motorway,
> 
> Looking at your chart I think I am seeing consolidation around this level. Do you think people are accumulating stock atm? Or do you think that phase happened around the base of the graph (60 - 80 cent range).
> 
> ...




JTLP, I don't think those prices M/W has listed on the chart are resistance levels (although there could be resistance at those levels) they are more like a kind of price target taken from the count given by his chart.

The stock seems to be stepping nicely atm.
There does seem to be good buying at this level atm, I think someone is accumulating the stock still, it looks like they have exhausted the supply at the lower levels and are having to move up to get more stock, just my opinion based on my view of the charts.

This area should provide some sort of support in the future but with such a thinly traded stock prices are quite likely to gap through S/R lines. You should think of S/R as more of a flexible line (dynamic).

I hold


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## motorway (28 August 2008)

Hi JTLP

Always good to look at the 1 box reversal chart

These Boxes are the same size as on the  3 box reversal chart

.05 is if you like a "window" that we are viewing the fluctuations
through

SIGNAL VS NOISE

movements of .05 are unlikely in aggregate to be mere noise

( you can see the clear trends the chart reveals )

So you should always take notice of congestion and width

( The chart does not have to move sideways, in fact it does not have to move )

focus also on the trace of the purple line...

I have left the thick horizontal blue line
You can see the "resiliency" from below it
with the last move down only touching it..

between June and July ( the 6 & 8 )

A congestion zone formed
Price moved higher 
and there is now the current congestion zone..

What must price be doing to form a congestion zone ?
It is turning back on itself

the trend is a trading range
the trend is "anti persistent"

If you have watched the daily action unfold
You could tell me who is in control

You ask my opinion , it is the buyers still accumulating

Are there any momentum players
Very few,,,,

look at how clear the pattern is up form the lows
The price is "working" higher..

You could get a very "explosive" move form a break out here
( "Interior Ballistics" Lot's of powder to propel the projectile Before it leaves the barrel )

Note that price has moved above an area of the highest volume "across" the chart , Note today had good volume ( increase )and look at the trade that made the close $1.10 instead of a $1.20



> 3:56:27 pm $1.10   ( number)  *55*    (value) *$61 *




So your questions and my opinion 

1) yes still only accumulation  ( to distribute you make a $61 sale at the close? )

2) Yes if it moves up this areas should be strong support

3) ~1.80/.85 is an area that could be important ( only because others are looking ) It is also the area I saw as preliminary Support(demand) .

Move through that area with a "SIGN of STRENGTH" and 
That whole pattern becomes activated  .

The "change of behavior" you can see on the 3 reversal chart is very obvious

Do you know that SSI just got a good write up in GERMANY ?

( it is listed there ),,,,

They no doubt take a guide from the close here ?

Criterion ( The Australian ) gave it a plug too...

But in the market climate
and this "under performer"

small cap etc... Do the "antelopes" rush back in after many were sold or sold out ? (opes prime etc )

Breakouts are like avalanches
if they happen they happen all at once
But not really from nothing ( congestion )


I hope you follow all that
I tried to touch on a few aspects
the "" relate to P&F terms and method or related terms and method.

.05 are big enough steps to take the noise away
.05 is a fast mover , If it moves 

Above all notice the width there is across now .
and also the way the purple line is tracing.
Also the behaviour of the Diagonal lines.


DYOR
motorway


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## motorway (1 January 2009)

An old saying is that stocks fluctuate !

An old P&F saying is that they do so in terms of both
*P*rice & *T*ime


An old tape reading saying , is  that you can not consider one stocks
movement in isolation... It's movements have to be considered within the context of all others.

P&F is what it is because of tape reading
 it is in a sense a written record of the tape
That is why the time scale is the dynamic of movement 
and not some non optimized artificial clock scale.

I see a trade above .50 as going to be a revelation
(I expect it to reveal )

changes in detail ( nature of reversals )
and changes in the empty spaces ( within the patterns )

makes this scale (imo ) very important 
for identifying a major turning point (If there is to be one  )

same chart at different _moments_
looking for  change of behavior 

so as at 20 nov
and as now.

what is changed ?

What is the geometry revealing to us ?
the ---- line is a significant juncture of price & volume
Price in terms of pattern and  halfway points ...

motorway


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## motorway (9 March 2009)

motorway said:


> An old saying is that stocks fluctuate !
> 
> An old P&F saying is that they do so in terms of both
> *P*rice & *T*ime
> ...




Just update these charts

that _context_ is very important atm

As any scan through basic chart patterns on P&F charts
would show..

.025 x 1 chart 
volume at the current level
Would be proven to be absorption
with a break to higher levels

What We have is a level of activity that is holding the ground gained esp in the mkt context...

Also a 10% x 1 log chart

condensed charts are a very powerful tool
A move to ~.70  would be a particularly bullish pattern

This Stock can move 10% in a day as easy as a week or month
Hence condensed P&F charts are not to be compared to the changing of time frames on time based charts

ALL P&F charts are charted 
in the present moment

or as one practitioner put it

charted in eternity


The volume at ~ 2.85 dwarfs and hides the significant volume activity
occurring atm as can be seen on the .025 chart
or would be seen on the 10% chart if the chart was viewed on a smaller scale
ie zoomed .

On the .025 charts
Two low pole reversals 
( looking for a floor / accumulation )

A break above the mid pattern High
( reversal pattern )

A possible stair step ( absorption/consolidation )

But all on a small scale.


motorway


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## motorway (10 March 2009)

The news is the news is (only) the news.

But I thought this aside at the end of this article noteworthy.

( considering the recent company announcement )

Such a comment is an arms length

Third party observation.

IE: It is not the Company / Broker  / Government or anyone else, who one would think  would significantly benefit from it...

An Empirical Observation

A fact maybe, something  vastly more valuable than the news.



> Chris Ruffle, an Englishman who has lived in China on and off since the 1980s, provided a separate and more upbeat analysis of the China investment market in general when he made a presentation in Sydney last week. Ruffle co-chairs Edinburgh-based Martin Currie's office in Shanghai.
> ...............................................................................................................................*So what do the locals do if they can't go there? He said he recently came across a Chinese cab driver who could name the entire Newcastle United soccer club front five thanks to a thriving,
> if officially underground, market in online gambling. The Toon Army of Geordie soccer fans have gained some unlikely new allies*.




http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25157009-5017978,00.html


Of course the real news , the Facts (that matter  )
is to be found only on the tape




motorway


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## motorway (25 March 2009)

> On the .025 charts
> Two low pole reversals
> ( looking for a floor / accumulation )
> 
> ...





Working form the bottom

Still on a small scale

Fell off the stairs unable to push through resistance

Dipped back through mid pattern high ( crimson line --Sign of weakness )

_False catapult_

BUT -- One became two and two is possible becoming three

_On the .025 charts
Two low pole reversals 
( looking for a floor / accumulation _

Old books make mention of a reverse apex   ( 1 box charts )

Someone like Carroll ABY ( 3 Box charts ) would mention, the sequence of three low poles

A particular cold day has a very different meaning to when it occurs eg
early Spring or late Autumn

And always it is the subsequent _response_

( this action after significant bull move would be very bearish, But now ? )

The bid finished at .50 by the close today
But last sale was at .42

Depending on what happens next

I am looking for confirmation of a number three spring

And a simpler _Fulcrum_ to be come a more Compound Fulcrum.

With Three low poles / a reverse apex / spring ---

Market as been in Winter time
smalls stocks ( like SEN CXY SSI and others )
have been under liquidation and on the sidelines

So failure on first moves up are in contest not that significant
*What is more Significant and revealing is the character of and at  support.*
DYOR

I hold

motorway


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## motorway (4 April 2009)

When there is  a penetration of a support level (In a range or trend ) that takes price into new low ground .. 

The subsequent response could take ( at least ) three forms:


1. A wide range break , with supply so heavy that support does not hold.
 RUN


2. Supply steady with demand  irregular/uncertain , supply then coming in heavier forming a  Series of lower tops & lower bottoms, eventually leading to a significant  break.
 at least walk very fast.

Or

3. No or little  supply at the  point where supply could have been expected to enter.


Number  3 sets up the best springing action.. With the response of demand then what determines.... eg Urgent or patient....

The amount of volume ( effort ) needed to takeup and overcome supply

distinguishes a number 2 spring form a number 3....

And the probability ( need ? ) for a test 

Going to be an interesting week ------maybe 


what is the BEST most adaptive cutting edge do-dah ?

The tape itself which is it's own interpretation...



> *These valuable charts are .....................................................
> a picturization of the tape itself*.




over 12 mths action here

When equilibrium is disturbed...There is Fluctuation / Vibration
Before equilibrium is disturbed ........... Same

Where is the Pivot of pivotal activity ?


motorway


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## motorway (3 May 2009)

Finally through the diagonal formed a "recoil" formation

supply has evaporated atm

over to demand 

Could expect an explosive move from such a formation ( generic )

There is very sound base in place

Ends do not always mean beginnings

I hold 

motorway


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## motorway (29 August 2009)

motorway said:


> A 10% x 1 log chart
> 
> condensed charts are a very powerful tool
> _A move to ~.70  would be a particularly bullish pattern_
> ...




Just need some follow through on this 10% x 1 Now

On a .05 pt chart there is already a potential breakout in play

The Two price targets are _standard practise 
objectives for a non random price series_
If we defined what looks like a base as accumulation.. 
Then we should see non random behavior 

The higher is based on the scaling of this chart ( exponential )
The lower on linear scaled chart ( more traditional )

Clear Uptrend defined atm ( purely a what IS, not a what will be )
DYOR 

motorway


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## grace (2 September 2009)

motorway, wake up wake up, someone wants to take sino over (did you know that with your bullish chart there?).  Wonder what the offer is going to be?  Might get my money back after all......


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## motorway (28 September 2009)

Again 



> 1)Is there potentially an increasing "Population of Interest"
> regarding this theme
> 
> 2) Is there a steady stream of favourable events ?
> ...




 Reasons (possible )

Significant long term potential and growth.
First mover advantage... lack of competition etc
etc 

The ONLY thing that can reveal for sure is the Tape

Demand is like water it will fill every niche eventually
Demand rotates through sectors and stocks
Bull markets are sustained by such rotation

DYOR

*GRACE you ask the wrong question surely ?
*

I see Both these charts as very positive
 a Primary Trend chart
and _a_ manipulative cycle chart ...

working higher ?

But the main dynamic is of DULLNESS
( BUT --> If anything cycles , truly , activity/volatility does  )

Market Depth 
Stirred today a little so with

All the news  PENDING
Time to look at the  Tape

Chart will move if there really is some..   

motorway


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## motorway (27 October 2009)

If Accumulation Started near the  End of 2008

(And Chart urges that opinion... imo)

It has been On going without a true Catapult Appearing

But growing in Urgency with Clear
HIGHER HIGHS & 
HIGHER LOWS 

and The Time element

Wyckoff was a one of a Kind
a TRUE GENIUS

EVEN in 
Esp ? In 1908



> Successful tape reading is a study of force; it requires ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side.
> 
> This study of ‘responses’ to stimulation or outside influences on stocks is one of the most valuable in the Tape Reader's education. I*t is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market. Of course,* all responses are not so clearly defined.
> 
> It is a matter of indifference to the Tape Reader as to who or what produces these tests, or critical periods. They constantly appear and disappear; he must make his diagnosis and act accordingly.




It is-- it might be ALL it IS and ever needs to BE

 A study of responses
and of responses of responses 

Of tests and responses

The move Down today to .65
I defined as a a very important test

Until a 







> True Catapult



SSI is in a range 

of either Accumulation or Distribution

The character of this range
suggests Accumulation
The action Today made imho a 







> Bullish Statement



Follow Through To .75+ on this chart
would if recent History repeats
See a move above imo  to $1.25+

and maybe finally a 







> True catapult



To herald an Up trend

How do we measure  







> responses



 ?

*
In units of Price Volume & Time*

So DYOR
and Your own Measuring 

I HOLD

PS SC AT ST SOS LPS ?

Motorway


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