# Long Term Secrets to Short Term Trading - Larry Williams



## pavilion103 (23 October 2011)

Who has read this book?

Is it a good read? recommended? not recommended?

Thanks


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## tech/a (24 October 2011)

One of the classics.
Just another book.

You can read 100s of books but there comes a time when you have to developba method and TRADE IT.

Nothing works 100% of the time.
But you only need your method to be right 30 % of the time to be profitable.
Learn how to develop a profitable trading method rather than search for the magic bullet.


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## pavilion103 (24 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> One of the classics.
> Just another book.
> 
> You can read 100s of books but there comes a time when you have to developba method and TRADE IT.
> ...




I really need to focus on reading more Wyckoff/VSA books becasue that is the way that I want to trade. 

With other books I'm not keen to read book after book like I have been doing, but I still want to read some to broaden my perspective. With a fairly limited exposure, I find them helpful in opening my mind a bit, although this isn't as important as practicising trading my system.


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## tech/a (24 October 2011)

pavilion103 said:


> I really need to focus on reading more Wyckoff/VSA books becasue that is the way that I want to trade.
> 
> With other books I'm not keen to read book after book like I have been doing, but I still want to read some to broaden my perspective. With a fairly limited exposure, I find them helpful in opening my mind a bit, although this isn't as important as practicising trading my system.




Youll find snippets in all books.
All are edges that the author has discovered and shares with the reader.
Its up to you yur reader to find ways of applying it profitably into your trading.
Some can---some cant so they read another book.


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## peter2 (24 October 2011)

If you see the L Williams book in a $2 store, buy it for a read. The valuable bits in the book (yes there are some) you should already know. I think you already know enough to trade profitably. Your main task now is to apply what you know and trade in a professional manner. 

You have to narrow your options and select a method/strategy and specialise in it. You should have noticed that when you review all the books, websites, forum threads that you have read, you have a preference for certain methods/strategies. Pick one of these and apply yourself to making it work for you. 

(Note: Start with something simple like buying BO's or buying dips in an up trend. There is nothing much more you need to learn before you apply yourself. Selecting VSA as a starting method means a lot of education and there are multiple ways to apply it. I would suggest starting with one VSA pattern and specialise in it.) 

You will never break out of the beginners cycle until you specialise in one method/setup/strategy. Specialise means you live and breathe this method. You back test/ forward test/paper trade/real trade until you know how to make it work for you and what market conditions you need to make it work well. Your beginner's mindset won't change until you put in the work to really understand one method. Once your trading mindset develops it is much easier to add another system that works in different market conditions to your trading business. 

Think of it as a 3 yr Masters degree in applied trading. You have done the first two years of general education. In the third year you must do a project that is fully documented and presented at the year's end. You're graded on the amount of work you put into the research, design and procedures not the success/failure of the project. 

One more book, one more seminar will only increase your options and delay the work that you must do in order to be profitable.


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## pavilion103 (25 October 2011)

Thanks guys. 

I have certainly noticed that when I was first reading trading books it was very exciting and I couldn't wait to get into the next one to see what it had to say.

The more and more I have read (and since I've come across VSA), I've seen less and less additional value in each book, to the point that I have become frustrated when reading because it feels like a waste of time (except for a few things I learn here and there). Whereas before that seemed like the most beneficial thing to do it now makes me feel like I'm avoiding the real work of applying techniques. 

I am not spending hours and hours applying it to old data. Mainly breakouts and minor reactions. My strategy is becoming more and more refined and I am taking a lot of confidence out of the results so far. I've spent around 700 hours (good quality) on my trading education now.


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## pavilion103 (26 October 2011)

Peter, I'd be interested to get your opinion on the following. 

Ok, so I'm spending a fair bit of time learning VSA principles. 
I've identified a number of potential entries which I've broken down below:

1. Breakouts
2. False breakouts
3. Retracement set-ups (I guess this is really a type of confirmation of a break)
4. Minor reactions/counter trend (re-test of support, re-test of trendline, pullback etc)

Do you think it's best to pick just one of the above and become proficient in that particular setup?
I want to eventually be able to trade all of these well, as I feel all offer strong potential but do you feel it's better to focus on one at a time?


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## peter2 (26 October 2011)

Yes select one, but don't assume that selecting one will limit your opportunities. The market provides an unlimited number of opportunities every day (one of my core beliefs about the market). You have itemised four scenarios (I'd argue that there are only two) and on most days currently there could be 20-200 break-out opportunities, 5-20 false BOs (= failed BOs), 40 - 200 retracements, 40 - 200 minor counter trend reactions (= retracements). How are you going to manage all these consistently every day? Most can't, unless they choose one setup or they have a checklist to reduce the number of opportunities to a manageable level.

Break-outs: a very general term. I trade BOs of resistance delineated by both sloping and horizontal lines. These lines can be drawn using price highs, round numbers or any other reason you like. A BO can be above yesterday's high, an intraday high, last week's high, last months high, above the high of 10d, 30d, 50d 100d, 250d etc. We can identify a BO using almost anything even classic geometric patterns (triangles, boxes, flags wedgies etc.) Any new high could be called a BO. Are your opportunities limited? I don't think so. 

Will these BO trades win every time? Of course not, many fail to go on with it. We have to learn how to deal with these BO failures (I don't like the term false BO.). 

Retracements/minor counter trend corrections/pullbacks: same things. Are you looking for retracements to prior resistance/now support, to a fib level, to an MA. What about EW abc corrections? 

You will see the same price pattern on any number of charts at the same time (market correlation). Any additional understanding of how markets move (eg VSA, Wyckoff, Gann, EW, algebra, mathematics, chaos theory) may put the the odds in your favour by identifying those charts with a higher probability of a successful trade.

You make more money with less trades by trading the price trends. BOs can get you into the start of a trend and can be used to pyramid your position. Retracements/pullbacks/corrections are a useful method to join in on an already established trend earlier than a subsequent BO and usually with a better R/R than the BO entry. 

You have to be crystal clear what it is that you are trading, a short term price swing higher, a medium or longer term trend and use the combination of entry/exit rules that can capture the most of your anticipated move.


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## pavilion103 (26 October 2011)

Plenty to think about. I've realised there are so many forms each type of trade (e.g. breakout).

I definitely need clearer rules. But these are becoming more and more clear for me. It seems like a block of wood which is being chiseled away.

It's good to hear some of these things Peter. I am slowly getting there. I will get there.  It's very exciting.


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## tech/a (26 October 2011)

Id like to take this opportunity to expand on some of Peters work and some of mine.

*I make this observation.*



> There are only 3 ways to profit in trading (Other than Arb).
> (1) Trade far more winners than losers with an aggregate of winning trades greater than the aggregate of losing trades.
> (2) Trade Much bigger Winners than Losers with the aggregate winning trades greater than the aggregate losing trades.
> (3) A combination of (1) and (2).




With this in mind.

Systems trading "*In General* will be in efficient"
As the algorithms are set in stone and the results are dependant on available capital as all trades cannot be taken.
Run any system with unlimited capital and you'll see what I mean.

Discretionary trading* provided* you have the time and the methodology can increase trade frequency and as such profit.

The trick is as a trader is to work hard towards (3).
Its your goal to get as much of (1) and (2) into your trading.

Ponder this.

I believe we can place ourselves *"IN ANTICIPATION"* of a trade in many ways. And* "IN ANTICIPATION"* of an exit in a trade in many ways.

Always within the umbrella of Trend/Counter-trend.
At what point is our analysis deemed to be wrong.
The next bar?
2 bars/5 bars/10bars/20 bars and so on. Our anticipation will be more impressive in less bars.

At what point is our exit deemed correct
The next bar?
2 bars/5 bars/10bars/20 bars and so on. Our anticipation will be more impressive in less bars.

Its a point of balance.Yours will be different to mine.
mine will be acceptable to some but not others.

See if we know what we *HAVE TO ACHIEVE* to be profitable we can work differently than if we dont know the --------*WHY* we will be profitable.


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## Pager (13 November 2011)

Long Term Secrets is in my humble opinion one of the best books ever written how to trade mechanically and profitably, that said some of the suggested ideas and set ups don’t work very well !, that’s not the point though, what it does is show the reader the sort of things that can work, other strategy’s like the famous Oops which with some very simple additions or tweaking are still widely used by traders today nearly 15 years after it was written and still work.

In a nutshell Larry shows you how to trade successfully but don’t try trading the ideas straight from the book, they do give an insight as to how successful mechanical traders operate, liken in to a comprehensive book about fishing its just the Author doesn’t tell you his best fishing spots !


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