# TSN - The Sustainable Nutrition Group



## elnico50 (6 June 2007)

Just joined and I'm surprised there's no thread on ACL!

Been a shareholder since August 04, and it's been an interesting ride.

The company shows lots of promise, and I thought the SP would be higher after the recent announcement about the positive Hycamp Phase II trials.

Partnered with Dr Reddy's after agreement with Abraxis Pharm was cancelled.....

What will happen next?


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## ekman (6 June 2007)

welcome aboard elinico...you will find that this site is quite good

I own ACL for a few months now and thought that they would have gone higher after the recent ann. IMO market is waiting for their mtng with FDA to see whether ACL can shorten the process. A good read for you on ACL can be found on intersuisse website


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## elnico50 (6 June 2007)

Thanks for the welcome and fast reply!

Hopefully some more discussion will be generated.

Let's hope all goes well with the FDA! Apparently HyCamp could end up an improved alternative to Irinotecan 2 (pfizer), which is a $900m a year product. The prospect of market exclusivity for pfizer wouldn't go unnoticed either.....


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## daeff (6 June 2007)

I also can't help but think that the resource sector is againing attracting money away by bios.....

ACL is another bios without gerneating income at this point in time + the rumours of capital raisings on the way rightly or wrongly...

Great story attached to ACL but to the market it is just under the radar


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## badmarty (20 June 2007)

I thought more guys would be trading this stock but there is very little volume, its been up and down like a yoyo last few months so looks to me like a good trading opportunity there at the moment. Anyone got anythoughts on this subject?


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## ekman (20 June 2007)

Now news in the past few wks about their next step or outcome with FDA. IMO there is the usual June selloff...punters may comein after June or if there is any positive ann before that ....
I HOLD


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## elnico50 (20 June 2007)

Those rumours of capital raising probably have caused some spookage

If they release some positive news before news of capital raising, then the price will go back up.....

If they do do some capital raising then I will increase my holdings provided the discount is good and the sp doesn't dilute too much 

I await the FDA results


IMO DYOR


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## ekman (18 July 2007)

in trading halt. most likely a cap raising around .85c to .90c. Wonder what this will do the sp. Hopefully they have some more good news with the cap raising ann


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## elnico50 (18 July 2007)

Yes, if this is a cap raise let's hope they release some good news with it or I fear the sp could get belted. 

Been a long time since any good news about generic heparin has been released.


IMO DYOR


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## elnico50 (18 July 2007)

Then again, is it common for a trading halt to occur with an announcement of capital raising? I've never seen one.........


IMO DYOR


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## elnico50 (18 July 2007)

Just read it more closely

"pending an announcement in relation to an institutional equity capital raising"

Doh

IMO DYOR


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## Johno (31 December 2008)

Is anyone else on board this one? I reckon its got potential for a 5 or 10 bagger...I bought in 2 weeks ago and its up 30% so far.


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## travwj (31 December 2008)

Has come up a bit lately, and had higher volume...will watch this i think.

Don't know anything about this company, will do some research.

Trav


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## gambier33 (12 March 2009)

Any guesses as to what the current trading halt is about.  Its either very good news or very bad

Good:  FDA ANDA approval signed off and start selling Fondapainux and pull in $30M per an. royalty from Dr Reddy; or

Bad:  FDA have a problem with the Alchemia/Dr Reddy product and go back to start.

Alchemia don't have the cash to hang around much longer unless they get revenues in or raise cash from shareholders.

I hope the news is good! 

Disclose: hold heaps of ACL


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## gambier33 (13 March 2009)

Good news today!  ACL announced the filing of the ANDA for Fondaparinux with the US FDA and came out of the trading halt.  Closed over 30% up and a turnover close to 3,000,000.  Its a long time since that amount has changed hands.

Unless the ANDA has been poorly prepared by Alchemia/Dr Reddy's it shouldn't take more than 6 months to be approved under FDA processes for first generics.  They can then start marketing and selling.  

There is very little reason not to expect an even greater price spike then.

Discl.  Holding ACL


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## gambier33 (29 March 2009)

The recently released ACL investor presentation gives a clue to the true value of a de-risked Alchemia (see slide 11): 

1.  It is estimated that the Innovator drug, GSK's Arixtra, will have USD250 to $300 Million sales in CY 2009.  
2.  The first generic (e.g. ACL's Fondaparinux) typically gets 40 to 50% of market at a 20% discount.  
3.  Using USD250M and 40% of market gives Fondaparinux sale revenue of US $100 mill to divide between Alchemia and Dr Reddy's.  
4.  Alchemia's share of profit is expected to be between 30% and 35% of generic sales which, if you take 30%, equates to US $30million = Aus $42million (0.70 exchange rate).  

All based on the conservative figure of the ranges given.   

5.  The number of shares and options on issue - 166 million.  
6.  Therefore potential annual earnings per share = 42/166 = 25 cents per share based on this conservative case scenario.  
7.  That 25 cents is pretty much without any "cost-of-sales" (almost all profit to ACL) as that is incurred by Dr Reddy's.   
8.  Using a middle of the road scenario the annual EPS from Fondaparinux = 35 cents

The risks:
1.  FDA knocks back the ANDA (why did APP pull out - investors don't really know).
2.  FDA delays the OK.  ACL have taken their cash burn to the brink and need cash inflow by the end of this year to avoid raising more - not a good market to be doing that!
3.  Another generic could enter the competition - however, ACL seem to think that's unlikely due to the synthesis complexity and their patent protection.

Upside:

1.  Sales for low molecular weight synthetic heparin (GSK's Arixtra) are increasing all the time.  2010 sales will be better than 2009s.
2.  ACL has other blue sky IP in the pipeline
3.  Cash from Fondaparinux sales will give them huge cash resources to further exploit their VAST system.  Maybe even pay dividends to shareholders!

I believe the upside makes the current price of ACL look far too low.  Will be buying on retreats.  Buying and holding.  Reckon it’s worth more than $2.00 once fully de-risked.  Recent weeks has seen a marked increase in turnover.

It will take off once the FDA approval comes through in about 6 month’s time.


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## gambier33 (4 April 2009)

Sorry, realised I'd missed out a component of the analysis, namely Alchemia's advice that generics sell at a 20% discount to the innovator drug.  However, I cannot find the edit button to fix the previous post (why doesn't it show?)so here's a corrected analysis:

1. It is estimated that the Innovator drug, GSK's Arixtra, will have USD250 to $300 Million sales in CY 2009. 
2. The first generic (e.g. ACL's Fondaparinux) typically gets 40 to 50% of market at a 20% discount. 
3. Using USD250M and 40% of market and applying the 20% discount gives Fondaparinux sale revenue of US $80 mill to divide between Alchemia and Dr Reddy's. 
4. Alchemia's share of profit is expected to be between 30% and 35% of generic sales which, if you take 30%, equates to US $24 million = Aus $34million (0.70 exchange rate). 

All based on the conservative figure of the ranges given. 

5. The number of shares and options on issue - 166 million. 
6. Therefore potential annual earnings per share = 42/166 = 21 cents per share based on this conservative case scenario. 
7. That 25 cents is pretty much without any "cost-of-sales" (almost all profit to ACL) as that is incurred by Dr Reddy's. 
8. Using a middle of the road scenario the annual EPS from Fondaparinux = 28 cents

The risks:
1. FDA knocks back the ANDA (why did APP pull out - investors don't really know).
2. FDA delays the OK. ACL have taken their cash burn to the brink and need cash inflow by the end of this year to avoid raising more - not a good market to be doing that!
3. Another generic could enter the competition - however, ACL seem to think that's unlikely due to the synthesis complexity and their patent protection.

Upside:

1. Sales for low molecular weight synthetic heparin (GSK's Arixtra) are increasing all the time. 2010 sales will be better than 2009s.
2. ACL has other blue sky IP in the pipeline
3. Cash from Fondaparinux sales will give them huge cash resources to further exploit their VAST system. Maybe even pay dividends to shareholders!

I believe the upside makes the current price of ACL look far too low. Will be buying on retreats. Buying and holding. Reckon it’s worth more than $2.00 once fully de-risked. Recent weeks has seen a marked increase in turnover.

It will take off once the FDA approval comes through in about 6 month’s time.


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## hardyakka (10 April 2009)

Great analysis Gambier, I now understand a lot more about their drivers and product. 

I acquired a small holding as my bio exposure based upon a mix of a little understanding and instinct at 15 cents and have been more than pleased with their performance. 

I will be watching for the provisional results of the ANDA submission and increasing my exposure if these are positive.

Cheers


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## gambier33 (18 April 2009)

Hi hardyakka,

Thanks for the feedback.  I thought I was talking to myself about Alchemia.  I had gotten really excited to find an Alchemia thread on the Aussie Stocks but the earlier posters look like thier interests may have moved on to other stocks.

Since my first post on 29 May 2009, ACL has increased in value from around 29 cents to 36 cents at close of business last Friday.  Daily volume has eased following the initial highs on news on the ANDA filing.  I'd expect volume to continue to be light until more announcments are made.  With only 166 million shares on issue, there isn't a lot floating around anyway.  I'm still happy to sit and wait for the FDA's advice on the approval in about 5 months time.  Got my fingers crossed that the $2 target is then realistic.

Cheers, gambier

Discl: holds ACL


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## maverick11 (22 October 2009)

I'm suprised no one has posted on this thread in months.  I have been holding ACL a while now, expecting some decent news any day now.  Good news could see this one take off IMO


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## maverick11 (26 October 2009)

This one's really in an upwards trend lately.  Hit a intra-high of .64 today 

Surely the update on approval must be getting close


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## maverick11 (30 October 2009)

This one just keeps going up, even on days when the market is down.  With potential FDA approval due any day now, (if good) the higher this one is to begin with, potentially the higher it could fly.


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## maverick11 (30 October 2009)

Well someone's deleted peoples' last two posts.  I can't really speculate what investors will value ACL with a positive FDA approval.  SP has been creeping up lately and if it comes through, realistically this one could go much higher of course.  If it goes ahead and cash comes in, I think previous valuations mentioned on here are not out of question.


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## iced_maggot (5 November 2009)

Hmm, seems to have gone down half a cent recently. What's the concensus, is there some sort of news I've missed or is this just people jumping ship while theyre ahead?


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## iced_maggot (20 November 2009)

BTW, if anyone manages to end up going to the AGM next week, will you mind filling us in on anything juicy?


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## GoodCall (25 November 2009)

There are a lot of announcements out.  I watched my modest parcel of ACL shares diminish by 7% today, probably due to share dilution because of the rights issue announced today:

_Brisbane, Australia, 25 November 2009: Alchemia Limited’s (ASX:ACL) Board of Directors today
announced that the Company will be undertaking a renounceable Rights issue. The Rights issue will provide
eligible shareholders of the Company with an opportunity to apply for new fully paid ordinary Alchemia
shares at $0.53 per share, with no brokerage costs and a discount of 26.9% to the closing price of the
Shares of $0.725 on 24 November 2009, being the last day of trading before the announcement of the
Issue._​
Every 11 shares held at 3/12/09 is eligible to receive 2 additional shares at 53c.

_So, with the pending approval and market launch of fondaparinux, why raise funds at this time? The Issue
will enable Alchemia to markedly accelerate several programs that the Company believes have the potential
to add considerable additional value to shareholders, by bringing forward other key milestones by up to 9
months. Whilst the commencement of the single Phase III trial for HA-Irinotecan will be the primary use of
the proceeds, the other programs to which the funds will be applied include:

• pre-clinical research evaluating the effectiveness of the HyACT platform in targeting cancer stem cells;
• preparing for the Company’s filing for approval of fondaparinux in the European market;
• assessing the viability of delivering fondaparinux sodium in an oral dosage form; and
• the support for a physician initiated Phase I/IIa trial for HA-Irinotecan as a cancer stem cell targeted
therapy in first line treatment of extensive Small Cell Lung Cancer.

With so many opportunities at the Company’s doorstep, it is the Board’s strong belief that it is in the best
interest of shareholders that the Company has adequate funding to expedite these programs. This will
ensure the Company can deliver ongoing and timely product opportunities from its pipeline which, if
successful, will ultimately drive shareholder value beyond that achievable by fondaparinux alone_​
link 

The shares closed at 67.5c.


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## skyQuake (25 November 2009)

GoodCall said:


> There are a lot of announcements out.  I watched my modest parcel of ACL shares diminish by 7% today, probably due to share dilution because of the rights issue announced today:
> 
> _Brisbane, Australia, 25 November 2009: Alchemia Limited’s (ASX:ACL) Board of Directors today
> announced that the Company will be undertaking a renounceable Rights issue. The Rights issue will provide
> ...




Dilution has occured yet. The FDA news is supposed to come out somewhere in between the last days of the rights offer and the time they are allocated.
Seems fairly risky.


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## thestevo888 (13 January 2011)

Been a long wait for this one. The new company presentation suggests that the FDA approval will happen by March... up from low 60's to mid 70 cents in the last few days... perhaps some have more information than me. SP should hit $1 with positive announcement... but there have been a lot of people waiting a long time.
 Their long term prospects are worth a look at, imho, with other drugs at stage 3 trials.


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## skc (27 October 2014)

ACL announced that its drug trial didn't reach primary end point... share price collapsed by 90%.

The biotech sector is high risk for sure but I almost can't remember a good outcome for anyone bar SRX in the last few years.

ACR looked decent for a while until they ran into problems with the FDA.

TIS has been plagued with delay after delay.

QRX got annihilated in April after many false starts.

PBT god canned in March.

GID had a product recall last month.

PXS and PRR are both long term heart breakers.

AHZ, CUV and BNO's stories are still playing out. 

I wonder what the statistics of this sector are in terms of win% and win/loss.


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## rcm617 (27 October 2014)

Yes, a great sector to lose a fortune in, similar to the junior oilers, but with success the rewards can be great. Probably best to treat them both similarly, enter early and exit or be at least free carried before results come out. That was my aim with this one, unfortunately got greedy and let 100% profit turn into a loss.


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## pixel (9 March 2016)

I'm surprised that nobody felt inclined to comment on the cap return and subsequent trading.
Okay, I didn't feel inclined to stir the pot either when I read about the 9.3c cash-back. But I took a punt and held on, even when trades rose above the 9.3c mark.





First speculation was vindicated: After the cap return, price didn't go negative, so I didn't lose any.
Monday's announcement of a new Director, combined with the new "substantial holder", triggered the next alarm, and I put in a top-up-bid at 0.8c. Happy to see it's been filled BEFORE the breakout.


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## pixel (15 March 2016)

Slow and steady rise. But no further news yet.


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## pixel (14 June 2016)

The March "revival" looked promising, as if some new business were on the horizon.
That didn't come to fruition, and ACL will be *suspended after end of trading today *by ASX for lack of sufficient operation.
In other words: It's dead, which the chart showed a couple of months ago.


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## pettlepop (4 January 2017)

ACL going for a nice arvo rally.  Take a look!


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## pettlepop (6 January 2017)

ACL is popping again, very little news on this stock so it might be one to watch. ACL into cancer therapies.  Fair Value Estimate by Morning Star is 0.013.  So its under-valued! Yes give me some more please!


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## pettlepop (6 January 2017)

Lots of on-market buying action has occurred on ACL at 0.01 cents over the past few trading days, wonder what is driving this?  Is a new cancer therapy in the pipeline?


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## skc (6 January 2017)

pettlepop said:


> *Lots of on-market buying action *has occurred on ACL *at 0.01 cents *over the past few trading days, wonder what is driving this?  Is a new cancer therapy in the pipeline?




1. Total volume over last 3 days is a tad over 2m.. 
2. The price is 1c or $0.01, not 0.01 cent.
3. With 2m shares traded @ 1c, that's about $20k in value. So perhaps not exactly "lots of buying".


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## tech/a (9 January 2017)

pettlepop said:


> ACL going for a nice arvo rally.  Take a look!






pettlepop said:


> ACL is popping again, very little news on this stock so it might be one to watch. ACL into cancer therapies.  Fair Value Estimate by Morning Star is 0.013.  So its under-valued! Yes give me some more please!






pettlepop said:


> Lots of on-market buying action has occurred on ACL at 0.01 cents over the past few trading days, wonder what is driving this?  Is a new cancer therapy in the pipeline?




Oh my how can this happen
The RSI is so over sold!


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## greggles (4 January 2018)

ACL seeing some movement in the new year. Price has doubled from around 1c to 2c on no news.






The ASX issued a speeding ticket yesterday but the company replied with the standard "we know nothing" response. Be interesting to see what this is all about. Time will tell.


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## System (15 October 2019)

On October 15th, 2019, Alchemia Limited (ACL) changed its name and ASX code to Australian Primary Hemp Limited (APH).


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## Go Figure (1 March 2021)

APH brand Mt Elephant mylk to be available at 165 premium Woolworths stores from April 2021.   By 2026, the plant-based milk market is estimated to be worth $28 billion annually, driven by dairy alternatives.


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## System (25 October 2021)

On October 25th, 2021, Australian Primary Hemp Limited (APH) changed its name and ASX code to The Sustainable Nutrition Group Limited (TSN).


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## Dona Ferentes (25 October 2021)

The Sustainable Nutrition Group Ltd (TSN) is a vertically integrated business which produces, manufactures and distributes a range of sustainable and plant-based nutrition brands, including hemp products under the Mt Elephant, Australian Primary Hemp, and Field Day brands to retail, wholesale, e-commerce and white label customers in Australia. TSN engages across the value chain encompassing seed selection, farming, processing, packaging, distribution and sales of bulk, food service and retail products


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