# Trading the Brexit, anyone?



## cogs (7 June 2016)

Anyone planning (or game enough) to trade the Brexit?

GBP is nasty at the best of times, I am staying well away, unless I get brave on the day and place some tiny stop orders a thousand or so pips away from market. I imagine the event to have an impact similar to the SNB cracker.

Watched this recently - Brexit The Movie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0


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## cynic (7 June 2016)

cogs said:


> Anyone planning (or game enough) to trade the Brexit?
> 
> GBP is nasty at the best of times, I am staying well away, unless I get brave on the day and place some tiny stop orders a thousand or so pips away from market. I imagine the event to have an impact similar to the SNB cracker.
> 
> Watched this recently - Brexit The Movie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0




The biggest crackers are usually the one's that the market didn't anticipate. The SNB fireworks probably had a greater impact, than might otherwise have occurred, because some deliberate lies were told by the SNB ahead of its announcement.

Unless a similarly mendacious scenario arises, I  would anticipate that the market will be better braced for the oncoming uncertainty surrounding the possibility of Brexit.


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## cogs (7 June 2016)

Lets hope so. 

Could be fizzer even, but it does have the fundamental makings to be quite a market mover.

I admit to getting frustrated at all the scare mongering going on.


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## NickF (7 June 2016)

cogs said:


> Anyone planning (or game enough) to trade the Brexit?
> 
> GBP is nasty at the best of times, I am staying well away, unless I get brave on the day and place some tiny stop orders a thousand or so pips away from market. I imagine the event to have an impact similar to the SNB cracker.
> 
> Watched this recently - Brexit The Movie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0




Thanks for sharing that video - very informational. If I was British, I'd probably vote for Brexit - it seems to me they are worse off by being in the EU...

So, if UK exits the EU, what should we expect from the GBP and EUR? I know little about politics and economy, but I would expect the GBP would raise and EUR will drop? Even if I can't say for sure that UK will do better immediately, I think the EU will be at a loss without UK (both short term and long term).

Nick


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## History Repeats (7 June 2016)

Too risky trading it outright, who knows the next post might suggest stay voter > exit voter..ect. I'd use options if taking a punt.


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## NickF (8 June 2016)

History Repeats said:


> Too risky trading it outright, who knows the next post might suggest stay voter > exit voter..ect. I'd use options if taking a punt.




It also depends on how much money we are willing to use. With great risk also comes great opportunity. Probably trading about an hour after the news is released, trading in the direction of the trend and using a trailing stop loss could reduce the volatility. But of course, if I knew better, I'd be making money instead of losing...


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## cogs (8 June 2016)

> It also depends on how much money we are willing to use. With great risk also comes great opportunity. Probably trading about an hour after the news is released, trading in the direction of the trend and using a trailing stop loss could reduce the volatility. But of course, if I knew better, I'd be making money instead of losing...



I tend to agree. The movie was very biased even to the point of potentially cherry picking the interviewees, having said that they put forward a very strong case and appear to only benefit from leaving.

As cynic illuded to it is not a total surprise event, or exactly like the SNB bankster move. To date GBP market responses to any mention of leaving, has the GBP moving down against the dollar, also mentioned in several articles of the EUR/GBP will aim for parity. Many years of experience has burnt into my brain not to trade the obvious though, so I personally will look for the momentom move first and/or the counter move from an over shoot, or the stop order if the stars align. I kind of expect an oversized NFP if a leave happens.


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## CanOz (8 June 2016)

One way to trade the associated volatility might be to look for levels where traders could be trapped and take advantage of rumors and pole results leading to the actual vote. For example if the market has been in a bull channel i wouldn't be buying pullbacks to the channel but watching for the stops to get taken out and the longs to bail. So sort of contrarian to the the trend, maybe use some of the those sentiment indicators for timing as well....just throwing some ideas out there.

Currency pairs EUR/GBP EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF maybe.


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## cogs (8 June 2016)

Good approach if they vote to stay, squeezing the stops for more liquidity, and to be treated like a news event, however if they leave I see large fundamentals kicking in, where? Not sure yet.


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## cogs (9 June 2016)

There appears to be directional plays that need a catalyst just like brexit.

Here I go, stick it all out on a ledge, brexit goes ahead and Britain exits. 

Unfinished plays for at least these 2.

EURUSD up to at least 1.22 (obvious unfinished business there).




GBPUSD drops to test 1.35, and maybe beyond.


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## cogs (16 June 2016)

Hmm might have to revise that EUR long, bit of a brave call anyway. Looks more like we may see parity with the USD.

Decided to stay out and watch for now, just stick with gold and AUD pairs.


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## NickF (18 June 2016)

cogs said:


> Hmm might have to revise that EUR long, bit of a brave call anyway. Looks more like we may see parity with the USD.
> 
> Decided to stay out and watch for now, just stick with gold and AUD pairs.




I also think the EUR will fall if UK exits. It will be very bad news for EU if that happens, since UK is one of the major players.

I've seen a video from BellDirect where they said they expect the JPY and CHF to be the strong currencies during this period.

Nick


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## cogs (19 June 2016)

Sad that a lady gets murdered which leads to a massive correction in currencies and gold in particular. I think this was an opportunistic moment for institutions to rape the momentum.

Found an interesting article some time ago studying 'stop loss orders and price cascades in currency markets' which is quite dated now but goes a long way toward how your little order can actually influence price direction.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr150.pdf 



> The central idea is that stop-loss orders contribute to large, rapid, self-reinforcing price
> moves, or “price cascades,” as follows: a change in the exchange rate from any source triggers
> the execution of stop-loss orders, which propagates the initial exchange rate change, thereby
> triggering the execution of more stop-loss orders, etc. Such a price cascade would be cut short by
> ...


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## ThingyMajiggy (19 June 2016)

So what would be the best instrument to trade for this for those trading it? I am thinking the EUR/GBP would be obviously the most volatile? How do you actually trade the pure GBP by itself or is that not possible? As it's all just based vs another currency isn't it? Like how much will the GBP/USD be impacted as its the pounds' value relative to the USD? 

I don't know much about all this and trading Forex so just looking into it as it's a good example to talk about together and see how it plays out. Have been watching some YouTube vids on the Brexit, interesting arguments for both sides. I was wondering why the GBP would supposedly plummet like everyone is suggesting if the Brexit does happen? It's not like the EUR is going terribly well so I would have thought the EUR would get hit as well and then the GBP would recover and actually end up stronger than the EUR? 

Anyone going to have a go with trading this? What about hedging it with something?


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## NickF (19 June 2016)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So what would be the best instrument to trade for this for those trading it? I am thinking the EUR/GBP would be obviously the most volatile? How do you actually trade the pure GBP by itself or is that not possible? As it's all just based vs another currency isn't it? Like how much will the GBP/USD be impacted as its the pounds' value relative to the USD?
> 
> I don't know much about all this and trading Forex so just looking into it as it's a good example to talk about together and see how it plays out. Have been watching some YouTube vids on the Brexit, interesting arguments for both sides. I was wondering why the GBP would supposedly plummet like everyone is suggesting if the Brexit does happen? It's not like the EUR is going terribly well so I would have thought the EUR would get hit as well and then the GBP would recover and actually end up stronger than the EUR?
> 
> Anyone going to have a go with trading this? What about hedging it with something?




I am not sure if the best instrument would be EUR/GBP. I think if UK exits, both the EUR and GBP could be negatively impacted for the next few weeks. If it doesn't exit, probably both will quickly go up together. In my opinion, we should consider using a stable currency vs these two volatile ones.

So far, I don't understand the value of hedging. Why not trade less of the instrument of your choice - i.e instead of 1 lot, go with 0.5 lots?

Nick


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## noirua (20 June 2016)

Following the death of UK MP Jo Cox, all prospects of a Brexit are dead in the water. Scotland and Northern Ireland are strongly in favour of Remain and all Brexit momentum is lost.


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## CanOz (20 June 2016)

noirua said:


> Following the death of UK MP Jo Cox, all prospects of a Brexit are dead in the water. Scotland and Northern Ireland are strongly in favour of Remain and all Brexit momentum is lost.




Is this reflected in the latest polls? Have there been any polls since her death? 

I see the Euro has really caught a bid this morning....

Really sad that someone's death like that is now so front and center in terms of market sentiment...what a bizarre turn of events.


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## cogs (20 June 2016)

> Following the death of UK MP Jo Cox, all prospects of a Brexit are dead in the water. Scotland and Northern Ireland are strongly in favour of Remain and all Brexit momentum is lost.



It certainly appeared that way Saturday morning. I have trouble understanding the irrationality of such an event, I mean, was it her vote that held the sway in the outcome of Brexit?
How many other humans died on that same day in the UK and their lives did not influence the future of Britain and Europe, or market movements.

You only have to look again at market opening this morning, I guess mostly due to thin volumes (which is a worry in itself) the whole crazyness and hype of this event. They are in many ways holding the markets and future of many people to ransome, and playing God.


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## cogs (21 June 2016)

Well apart from the obvious it has been a very quiet few days in FX pairs for the beginning of the week. Time and time again when I see this at the beginning of the week, but by the end of the week volutility more than makes up for it with wild swings. 

So far the Brexit FX market impact for late week is looking for violent moves whether they be up down or sideways. Sounds obvious, but I can usually count on it. Every week has a wild session, usually around Thursdays (Aus time). Conversly if the week starts off wild, it will be quiet toward the end of the week.


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## CanOz (21 June 2016)

I think the 6B has enough steam to get to 1.52


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## cogs (21 June 2016)

By the look of the POC and the building 'no' for Brexit certainly looks like an attractive target.

I am not a politition but if Brexit is a no, wouldn't they be more or less right back where they started? If so there will be a nice short to play once it runs out of steam.


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## CanOz (21 June 2016)

cogs said:


> By the look of the POC and the building 'no' for Brexit certainly looks like an attractive target.
> 
> I am not a politition but if Brexit is a no, wouldn't they be more or less right back where they started? If so there will be a nice short to play once it runs out of steam.




Yup, quite possibly and that would be the contrarian play with a 'stay' vote...but thats not what the sentiment is saying. These shorts need to flip i reckon....it could be just a low volume of committed traders too.


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## CanOz (21 June 2016)

I think its pretty bullish that the ES rejected that 2073.75 level. 

The US could see new highs after the vote if they vote to stay


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## CanOz (21 June 2016)

I think it would be cool to hold a Brexit party. I'll volunteer my office and all the markets ya need to watch if someone else brings the drinks and the nibbles!


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## cogs (21 June 2016)

Be great to watch the action on an extra large screen while having a few. They say the initial numbers should start coming in around 6-7 AM London time, who knows how long the drama will go on for. Should be a wild Friday.

Pairs are getting pumped now to where they don't belong (previously). Looks like regardless of the outcome pairs are going to be pumped until the outcome and spiked back to the gaps.


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## fiftyeight (21 June 2016)

Haha that would be fun


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## Joe Blow (22 June 2016)

Brexit Poll Tracker: https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/


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## hamli (22 June 2016)

Just have a small position in shorting 10yr Euro Bund. Figured the pot odds are there, with negative yield + brexit.
Big winner/small loser.


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## hamli (22 June 2016)

I prefer to check betting odds, something along the lines of:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Rather than 'polls' or surveys.


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## CanOz (22 June 2016)

hamli said:


> I prefer to check betting odds, something along the lines of:
> http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
> 
> Rather than 'polls' or surveys.




There was some discussion about the spread betters on Futures Trading Radio, they were saying they weren't looking at them this time for some reason, but the polls were more accurate....

Futures Radio Show
By Anthony Crudele


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## SuperGlue (22 June 2016)

Dear Trader  

There is an important referendum in the UK on 23 June 2016 regarding Britain's continued membership in the European Union. Regardless of the final result, significant volatility is expected across financial markets worldwide, particularly in currency and GBP denominated equity markets. Additionally, markets associated with EUR and EUR-linked assets are likely to experience substantial volatility in the event of an unexpected result.  

Firms around the world are taking preparatory steps to handle very high volumes, and extreme price volatility. 

Clients are strongly encouraged to examine their portfolios (especially leveraged positions and/or *those with short options positions*) and capital cushion in light of the potential volatility. If you have any GTC orders, or any of IB's risk protection orders (stop, stop-limit, etc), we would further urge you to review your order parameters in advance of the vote to ensure they are properly defined for your investment and risk management goals. 

Interactive Brokers Risk Management
----------------------

Bulletin from Interactive Brokers. (Underline & bold text by me)

Not expecting Britain to exit from EU.....??


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## cogs (22 June 2016)

Yep, regardless of the outcome, markets have been too quiet, there will be some action.


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## CanOz (22 June 2016)

Bookies Say It’s Almost All Over as Gamblers See No Brexit

Almost makes ya want to take the opposite side just for the potential!


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## TorFx (22 June 2016)

*Is the brexit the next Y2K? a toltal fizzer*

Is the Brexit a beat up by the Technocrats and banking elite?

Get the latest news below:


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## SuperGlue (22 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> Bookies Say It’s Almost All Over as Gamblers See No Brexit
> 
> Almost makes ya want to take the opposite side just for the potential!





Buy the rumour, sell the fact, you reckon.


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## CanOz (22 June 2016)

SuperGlue said:


> Buy the rumour, sell the fact, you reckon.




We'll yeah if its that certain and every man and his dog are long, the only trade with a decent risk/reward would be get short if there were a spot where those that just got long want to get out if things don't go as planned. Sort of like trading the NFP release against the recent trend. I'm not saying take a postion before the vote, i'm saying wait, get the results and watch the price action for a spot to take advantage of trapped longs...


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## SuperGlue (22 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> We'll yeah if its that certain and every man and his dog are long, the only trade with a decent risk/reward would be get short if there were a spot where those that just got long want to get out if things don't go as planned. Sort of like trading the NFP release against the recent trend. I'm not saying take a postion before the vote, i'm saying wait, get the results and watch the price action for a spot to take advantage of trapped longs...




Got it.
Will be watching with great interest.


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## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2016)

I'm keeping it simple.  These are my lines [daily].


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## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2016)

IG are acting like there's going to be 20% swings in world markets.  Barrage of emails, texts, updates, etc.


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## cogs (23 June 2016)

> IG are acting like there's going to be 20% swings in world markets. Barrage of emails, texts, updates, etc.



Many brokers are the same, I can't help but wonder if it is a test on volatility and market control as well, usually when there is so much lead in, knowledge and preparedness nothing much happens, after all a bubble is not a bubble if everyone knows about it.

What I am looking at now is all the set ups building for the coming weeks on many pairs including indexes.

Purely on the pound dollar 1.53 or 1.35 are first targets in my view for rational levels. Fat Finger algo plays could go well beyond that.




Monday gaps should be ones to watch, expect something out of the ordinary. I doubt whether it will be all absorbed by then.


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## CanOz (23 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm keeping it simple.  These are my lines [daily].
> 
> View attachment 67185




Mystery market?


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## Wysiwyg (23 June 2016)

cogs said:


> Monday gaps should be ones to watch, expect something out of the ordinary. I doubt whether it will be all absorbed by then.



Results will be known before then. Probably by our tomorrow afternoon so the Northern Hemisphere will react tomorrow night. Yeah probably gaps on Monday too. The media and brokers are calling for high to extreme volatility so I suppose that it will have to be so.


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## CanOz (23 June 2016)

Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds

Another reason the bookies might not be the ones to guess the correct result this time....


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## SuperGlue (23 June 2016)

Might be a non event if Britain remains in the EU.

The markets will come up with "already been factored in."


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## Gringotts Bank (23 June 2016)

My chart is FTSEcfd


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## skc (23 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds
> 
> Another reason the bookies might not be the ones to guess the correct result this time....




I read that but I am not sure what conclusion to draw... the majority of punters are not exactly informed gamblers. Plus their gambling action may not actually be how they are going to vote. And lastly, those who choose to gamble on this may not be representative of the voting public anyway.

Perhaps the random punters are attracted to the high payout (up to 3 to 1) for the leave camp. 

On the notion of average bet size... the discrepancy of bet size is probably more related to the discrepancy in payout ratio rather than what Zerohedge is suggesting about rich manipulating the bookies. 

It's hard to say in isolation... but similar bets breakdown for a sports event, where you have a short odds favourite vs long odds underdog, might reveal whether the Brexit bet size differences are actually normal.


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## cogs (23 June 2016)

Can't believe it is still such an unknown either way.

Just reading this, a lot of manual punters, seems to be best way to play it: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...face-3-a-m-singapore-start-for-brexit-results


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## relval (23 June 2016)

The betting markets are relatively small compared to financial markets.  If I were a large fund, I would load up on long risk positions, and then splash some money into the betting markets to reprice the odds.  This causes market to reprice brexit risk and I can unload my positions for an easy profit.   This is a nice easy way to manipulate the market without a big outlay


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## skyQuake (23 June 2016)

relval said:


> The betting markets are relatively small compared to financial markets.  If I were a large fund, I would load up on long risk positions, and then splash some money into the betting markets to reprice the odds.  This causes market to reprice brexit risk and I can unload my positions for an easy profit.   This is a nice easy way to manipulate the market without a big outlay




Get a large network of people to lie on their phone surveys and vote the other way tomorrow.
Position for that 'surprise' accordingly

Flee country when someone spills the beans months later


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## CanOz (23 June 2016)

There might be a trade on the two announced results, the first survey result and then the referendum result...depending on what happens after the former....


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## hamli (23 June 2016)

I thought there is only one clear play, shorting treasuries/bonds. Whether it be the GBL, JGB or ZB.

They are either already at negative yield or historical lows. You will either lose a bit or win a lot...


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## ThingyMajiggy (23 June 2016)

Even the DAX is playing out the WTF pattern


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## CanOz (23 June 2016)

hamli said:


> I thought there is only one clear play, shorting treasuries/bonds. Whether it be the GBL, JGB or ZB.
> 
> They are either already at negative yield or historical lows. You will either lose a bit or win a lot...




So why not gilts?


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## Modest (23 June 2016)

Is someone havin` a luff? *pom accent*


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## fiftyeight (23 June 2016)

I just want to try and short everything, the stay vote is priced in and I would love to be short a exit vote. 

I have put it on my list to investigate options as a way acting on the impluses. 

Think ill be sitting on my hands tonight as I really have no idea


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## kid hustlr (23 June 2016)

FTSE is incredibly volatile. Crazy.


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## skc (23 June 2016)

skyQuake said:


> Get a large network of people to lie on their phone surveys and vote the other way tomorrow.
> Position for that 'surprise' accordingly
> 
> Flee country when someone spills the beans months later




Perhaps cheaper and simpler to just bribe or establish your own survey company. 

Still might need to flee the country afterwards...



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Even the DAX is playing out the WTF pattern




Lol.


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## skc (23 June 2016)

fiftyeight said:


> I just want to try and short everything, the stay vote is priced in and I would love to be short a exit vote.




You are probably right. But may be there are money sitting on the sideline waiting to commit on the confirmation of the Remain vote? 

Anyhow... tonight feels like waiting for a full moon eclipse or Halley's comet or something. It feels like a calm spectacle and I can't really feel any tension in the market.

Or may be I am just not in tune enough.


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## fiftyeight (23 June 2016)

skc said:


> You are probably right. But may be there are money sitting on the sideline waiting to commit on the confirmation of the Remain vote?




 story of my trading life


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## kid hustlr (23 June 2016)

somethings out all the liquidity is gone


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## Wysiwyg (24 June 2016)

Another game the market could play is draw the conservative (sat out the event) players into the market on a stay vote with a brief rally. Then tank and catch the conservatives in bad positions. Just a thought.


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## Wysiwyg (24 June 2016)

Looks like it is a stay in the EU vote. Terrible insider trading.


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## CanOz (24 June 2016)

> 07:04(UK) Latest Brexit poll: 52% for remain, 48% for leave - YouGov/Times poll (day poll not an exit poll)- Polled 5,000 individuals today- does appear to be high turnout- too early to be certain more... (related EUR/GBP EWU GBP/EUR GBP/JPY GBP/USD GILTS POLITIX)07:02(UK) UKIP's Farage: Appears that Remain camp will be victorious in Brexit referendum - UK press (related EWU GBP/USD GILTS) - Source TradeTheNews.com




range bound now until the real result?


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## fiftyeight (24 June 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Another game the market could play is draw the conservative (sat out the event) players into the market on a stay vote with a brief rally. Then tank and catch the conservatives in bad positions. Just a thought.




This is my fav theory if there is stay vote. Let a rally run its course then try and find a spot to get short.

Can not help my self, tiny short position on the asx at $5 a point to keep work interesting. Just incase  there are some early bad numbers


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## CanOz (24 June 2016)

The ES has a nice spike but here seems to be a nice large order to fill before moving higher...


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

Gibraltar 96% vote in, 4% vote out. Thrashing!......but it does share the border with Spain so kind of expected.

Just one result in, long way to go yet. Polls still showing its a dead heat, this will be fascinating to see how it plays out. Almost midnight in London, I think they said most results expected around 1am or so. Bloomberg just reporting in another poll that leave was infront again, amazing watching the instant reactions from currencies.  

http://time.is/London for anyone interested, I've got this huge London time up, the GBPUSD and a live stream of the people voting


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## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

fiftyeight said:


> This is my fav theory if there is stay vote. Let a rally run its course then try and find a spot to get short.
> 
> Can not help my self, tiny short position on the asx at $5 a point to keep work interesting. Just incase  there are some early bad numbers




techinically an ok spot for it to.


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

Another win for remain with Newcastle JUST(50.7%) voting remain. Strangely the GBPUSD tanks on it.

Make that 2 wins for Remain.


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## skc (24 June 2016)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Another win for remain with Newcastle JUST(50.7%) voting remain. Strangely the GBPUSD tanks on it.
> 
> Make that 2 wins for Remain.




Newcastle was supposed to be a Remain stronghold with a predicted 12pt lead.

Wins by area doesn't matter (unlike say the Federal election here)... total vote count is everything.


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

skc said:


> Newcastle was supposed to be a Remain stronghold with a predicted 12pt lead.
> 
> Wins by area doesn't matter (unlike say the Federal election here)... total vote count is everything.




Yeah a couple of big wins for leave apparently in a couple areas now on social media. So who knows, I'll shut up now


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

And we're off! Big win for leave...which has now pushed leave into the lead.




Last post I promise


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## Wysiwyg (24 June 2016)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> And we're off! Big win for leave...which has now pushed leave into the lead.
> 
> 
> Last post I promise



That has gotta hurt.:grenade:


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## cynic (24 June 2016)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> And we're off! Big win for leave...which has now pushed leave into the lead.
> 
> View attachment 67201
> 
> ...




I will gladly accept a broken promise on this occasion. Please keep posting your updates!


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## cynic (24 June 2016)

Strong remain vote in Clackmannanshire. 58% remain, but turnout was only 67%


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

73% turnout for City of London, votes being counted now. Next few to be counted are apparently remain strongholds.


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## cynic (24 June 2016)

Based upon the first 5 tesults, 4 remain and 1 leave but the total count was 50.5% voting to leave.


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## McLovin (24 June 2016)

The only thing that matters is how southern England and the home counties vote. They should start reporting around midday.


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## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

Is it worth placing some ridiculously low bids in companies you are comfortable holding long term in the hope to pick up something 'cheap' in a low liquidity environment?


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## noirua (24 June 2016)

London and the South East faced one of the wettest days for many years.  Railway Stations flooded, polling stations flooded and major disruption. Forecasts of turnout in London is well down on expected levels. Postal voting is mainly done by retired people and disabled who are reported more likely to vote for Brexit, younger turnout for Remain but usually vote at polling stations and more unreliable.


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## cogs (24 June 2016)

Typical pump and dump, regardless of the vote. Just a catalyst to pump and dump man.


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## cynic (24 June 2016)

cynic said:


> Based upon the first 5 tesults, 4 remain and 1 leave but the total count was 50.5% voting to leave.




Now 5 remain, 3 leave
53% voting to leave.


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## CanOz (24 June 2016)

I'm tempted to go long, thinking the rest of the results will bring the stay camp back into majority, however after looking at the swings mostly caused by illiquidity, i'm not so sure any postion would be worth the risk.


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## McLovin (24 June 2016)

cynic said:


> Now 5 remain, 3 leave
> 53% voting to leave.




You know these divisions aren't electoral divisions? The Scilly Isles have a population of about 1,800 people but are in the remain column.


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## CanOz (24 June 2016)

something like 13 regions out of 300+ counted, good grief....


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

Yep long, long way to go yet. Another 6 hours or so of this. Currently 1:40am in London


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## fiftyeight (24 June 2016)

With the bad weather I feel the more passionate will come out to vote. I have a feeling that the more passionate will be the leave vote


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## cynic (24 June 2016)

McLovin said:


> You know these divisions aren't electoral divisions? The Scilly Isles have a population of about 1,800 people but are in the remain column.




Geography and politics are definitely not my strong suits.

Anyway, there's some political bickering going on at the moment. A number of pro remain pollies are looking and sounding less optimistic than they were earlier.


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## Klogg (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> something like 13 regions out of 300+ counted, good grief....




Agreed. Only 3% of the vote and the GBP is flailing wildly


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## CanOz (24 June 2016)

> 10:55(UK) City of London votes to remain in EU - Source TradeTheNews.com




London to remain! as expected right?


----------



## McLovin (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> London to remain! as expected right?




That's just the City of London, like the City of Sydney....There's about 6,000 votes in that division. That's the point I keep stressing, the divisions do not have equal population weightings. Wandsworth should report soon, that's a big London borough and is supposedly going 70% remain.


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

McLovin said:


> That's just the City of London, like the City of Sydney....There's about 6,000 votes in that division. That's the point I keep stressing, the divisions do not have equal population weightings. Wandsworth should report soon, that's a big London borough and is supposedly going 70% remain.




Cool, i'll keep an eye out for that one...


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

11:02(UK) Brexit referendum update: Results from 31 out 382 voting districts in; OUT leads IN by 53.2% to 46.8% margin (related EWU GBP/USD GILTS) - Source TradeTheNews.com

lots of vol now...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

So far, from The Telegraph. There's been a few just now that were supposed to be remain but leave has won, adding the extra volatility.


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

Wooohoo what a ride!!


----------



## cynic (24 June 2016)

Anyone still keen to go long?


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

This is gonna be a helluva day if we've only got a small portion counted and we're already seeing these swings....unreal...


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

cynic said:


> Anyone still keen to go long?





lol....not me ... yet...seriously i won't be trading it...FTSE Futures fall 7% - TTN


----------



## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

This is crazy the GBP has lost 9c!


----------



## cynic (24 June 2016)

Bookies now favouring Brexit.

Talk about having an each way bet!


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

I was going to stay out, but this is just too good! Swings are awesome. Gold in/out, Aus200 in/out, AUDUSD in/out.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

cogs said:


> I was going to stay out, but this is just too good! Swings are awesome. Gold in/out, Aus200 in/out, AUDUSD in/out.


----------



## pixel (24 June 2016)

> 02:19 South Ayrshire votes to REMAIN
> REMAIN
> 02:19 Oxford votes to REMAIN
> REMAIN
> 02:19* Lambeth votes to REMAIN*



Good to see Lambeth doesn't Walk


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

Wandsworth vote remain.

Remain now back ahead, 51.2%


----------



## McLovin (24 June 2016)

Lambeth is a greater London division. Wandsworth is south London. They are big population wise. If Remain is going to come back it will be London that gets it there.

Barking and Dagenham in East London has gone Exit. That was expected.

Turnout is lower in Remain areas.


----------



## Roller_1 (24 June 2016)

Anyone got a cchart of the GBP/USD they can share??


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

ThingyMajiggy,
Yes mate, bit like that. Round and round it goes, where it stops .....


----------



## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

Roller_1 said:


> Anyone got a cchart of the GBP/USD they can share??


----------



## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

kid hustlr said:


> View attachment 67207




how about 3 hits to divergence looking for an almighty long


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

75 of 382 areas counted.


----------



## cynic (24 June 2016)

It's tight! 50.1% in favour of Brexit!

The whÃ¨el's still spinning!


----------



## McLovin (24 June 2016)

Richmond and Harrow, both in London, to report shortly. Big turnouts expected. London turnouts are very high, despite the weather.


----------



## McLovin (24 June 2016)

Islington heavy to remain (75%). Expected result, for those who don't know London, Islington is similar to Newtown or Glebe in Sydney. It's probably worth pointing out that where remain is winning, it's winning big margins in areas with big populations.


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

EUR GOLD Monthly flag, soft side to 1200.

Will this be the catalyst, or next month?


----------



## cynic (24 June 2016)

cynic said:


> It's tight! 50.1% in favour of Brexit!
> 
> The whÃ¨el's still spinning!




50.2% in favour of Brexit!

But the wheel ain't stopped yet, ya hear?


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

Livesquawk pumping out results!

https://twitter.com/Livesquawk


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

wow....



> 12:14(UK) According to ITV analysis 75% probability of "leave" to win (related EUR/GBP EWU GBP/CHF GBP/JPY GBP/USD GILTS GBP/EUR) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## rb250660 (24 June 2016)

These swings are great!!


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

491% of ave daily range, so far. Normally it would be all over for the day, let's see.

Bloomberg TV for me, with Rish by the minute, with emotion and flavour and hype.


----------



## cynic (24 June 2016)

Labour party is now working on assumption of Brexit and Cameron's career is looking doubtful.

Edit : on a more positive note, my short dacks are looking sexier by the minute!


----------



## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

cynic said:


> Labour party is now working on assumption of Brexit and Cameron's career is looking doubtful.
> 
> Edit : on a more positive note, my short dacks are looking sexier by the minute!




You held a position through this? awesome.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2016)

Those lines were respected/tested.  Can't do much cos gotta go to work.  FTSE cfd daily.


----------



## Roller_1 (24 June 2016)

US futures are getting smashed, aren't thy?


----------



## cynic (24 June 2016)

kid hustlr said:


> You held a position through this? awesome.




Not full size contract though, just a few OTC CFDs.

Had annoying phone calls from both brokers this week, accompanied by some surprise increases in margin requirements.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

This is getting fairly intense now! Volatility is massive! Buckle up lads!


----------



## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

cynic said:


> Not full size contract though, just a few OTC CFDs.
> 
> Had annoying phone calls from both brokers this week, accompanied by some surprise increases in margin requirements.




i tried to hold a short on the sim for the ftse - i got stopped in the run up 2 minutes before the overnight close. its down over 400 points from stop price lol


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

complacency aside, so many opportunities.

Man needs some serious capital, no BE or stops hit yet! Winner winner chicken for dinner.


----------



## McLovin (24 June 2016)

The deficit in England is 1.3m votes against remain, and widening. Scotland was keeping the deficit down as its results came in, but it is almost fully counted. Unless London and the big cities go very heavily in favour in remain, leave wins. I think leave wins at this point.


----------



## cynic (24 June 2016)

kid hustlr said:


> i tried to hold a short on the sim for the ftse - i got stopped in the run up 2 minutes before the overnight close. its down over 400 points from stop price lol




I had to pump in a few extra dollars on account of a sudden 330% increase in margin requirements , otherwise they would have torn my shorts off!


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

666% and counting 1.35 might be a joke!


----------



## skyQuake (24 June 2016)

1.3503 GFC lows in the pound testing now!


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 June 2016)

I had my doubts but it's happening and good on them. As that bloke said "Independence Day" for Great Britain.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2016)

I'm not sure how I feel about this.  The rest of Europe is going to panic without the stabilizing presence of Britain.


----------



## Quant (24 June 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> I had my doubts but it's happening and good on them. As that bloke said "Independence Day" for Great Britain.





Lot of water to go under bridge yet , there is literally nothing in it ...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

Quant said:


> Lot of water to go under bridge yet , there is literally nothing in it ...
> 
> View attachment 67218




Might want to update your numbers. Leave is ahead by 700,000 now.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)




----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

> Lot of water to go under bridge yet , there is literally nothing in it ...



Cool, more swings!


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

There must be a PONR...Point of No Return??? Once that is realized, look out.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

ITV calling it a win now, they were getting higher % of a win before, 90%, then 95%, now they're just calling it a win for leave. 

It seems the fat lady is starting to hum some chords.

EDIT: BBC also calls it a win now too.


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

Nationalism has returned...first the UK, then the US. Fear....racism and closed borders for the future.


----------



## Roller_1 (24 June 2016)

Wonder how many Billion Soros is making right now


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

This is a redistribution of wealth now. They are saying price movements bigger than Leahman event.

I and I was wondering if I would get a trade this week!


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

I went to cash in my super last week, i wondered if it was really needed. I'm quite happy i did now.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

1 minute chart of Gold is a thing of beauty  I nearly want to blow it up and get it framed as a throwback to this day, I was there


----------



## rb250660 (24 June 2016)

This volatility is what dreams are made of.


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 June 2016)

Disappointing in a way with such a small percent win. For decisions of this magnitude it would be better for a decisive majority win. Technically if one vote made the difference that is not a decisive outcome. Who knows how many voters were ill informed, had no idea or voted with their heart. Economic benefits, the average person would not know.


----------



## cogs (24 June 2016)

And now the bargain hunters move in.


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and Arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....


----------



## trainspotter (24 June 2016)

15% votes yet to count and 3% NO is pretty definitive IMO


----------



## rb250660 (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and Arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....
> 
> This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....




I was saying the exact same thing just yesterday.


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

ES - Trading halted.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2016)

FTSE weekly chart, sitting on retest line.  Breaking that would be bad.  Getting no work done here.

I reckon it will push up a bit from here, and look for short opportunity.


----------



## rb250660 (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> ES - Trading halted.




I was wondering when the markets would blow up.


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

You'd have to think the Germans would want to leave now!


----------



## Roller_1 (24 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> FTSE weekly chart, sitting on retest line.  Breaking that would be bad.  Getting no work done here.
> 
> I reckon it will push up a bit from here, and look for short opportunity.
> 
> View attachment 67223




I don't think support/resistance means much when something big like this goes down : time will tell


----------



## rb250660 (24 June 2016)

Agreed. Big news changes everything. Those lines on that chart mean nothing.


----------



## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and Arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....
> 
> This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....




This is actually kind of true - its actually quite sad. There really could be far reaching political and social effects.


----------



## qldfrog (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....



a sad day indeed to have had to reach that stage and that need, a great day in  that people may start to be heard be it trump, that referendum, or here getting some real alternative to the crappy duopoly feeding on people in all democraties.
A dangerous but needed stage in my opinion, otherwise this is admitting that 1984 is here to stay.
So I see some hope there, the real question is :
will the powers in place let this vote change anything: we have had example after examples where citizen vote were just bypassed: greece, ireland, maastricht treaty vote in France, you name it...the beauty of democracy
Wait and see but yes could be the black swan triggering the much needed bust of the debt bubble, could lead to contagion and yes will lead to a mnore radical and dangerous world
otherwise, making a killing on the market today!!!!


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

QLDFrog, Frexit next?


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> QLDFrog, Frexit next?




They are one of the cheaters they wanted the British to stay so they could keep playing the system.
Germany definitely!  Problem is it's harder for the ones with the currency, a little more complicated to say the least and messy!

Gerry Harvey just made a brilliant summation.
Gerry said, "some of the best brains in the world were saying they should stay, half were saying leave. The populous thus have no idea.  Why on earth would you have a referendum on it?  It's complete madness!" 

David Cameron - terrible call - big fail!

Stirling now at a 30 year low!

Bottom line - Markets hate uncertainty, Europe is in crisis.


----------



## fiftyeight (24 June 2016)

Ended the day well up after continuing to short  

But agree with everyone's comments.

Sad day indeed, hopefully not a sign of things to come


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

fiftyeight said:


> Sad day indeed, hopefully not a sign of things to come




Chinese and Russians will be loving this.
It's much easier to slam restrictions on them as they pillage and invade if you are a united voice.
Not so good!

Japan down 8%


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

Dax looking like 9400 to open


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> Dax looking like 9400 to open




FTSE looking to open 8.8% down 
Euro down 12% !!! 
I think that's a vote against Euro too.
Go, "Royal Britannia. Britannia rules the waves."


----------



## pixel (24 June 2016)

notting said:


> FTSE looking to open 8.8% down
> Euro down 12% !!!
> Go, "Royal Britannia. Britannia rules the waves."




 Britannia rules the waves. - Really? 
That may have  been true hundreds of years ago, so "*ruled*" would be more appropriate.
Nowadays, it's more like "Britain Waives the Rules."


----------



## fiftyeight (24 June 2016)

notting said:


> Chinese and Russians will be loving this.
> It's much easier to slam restrictions on them as they pillage and invade if you are a united voice.
> Not so good!
> 
> Japan down 8%




I wonder if the rain did keep influence the numbers. Imagine if this is a catalyst for a huge change in world politics and it came down to a rain day.

If nationalism is gaining in popularity, maybe time to have a punt on Trump for the win


----------



## mjim (24 June 2016)

notting said:


> FTSE looking to open 8.8% down
> Euro down 12% !!!
> I think that's a vote against Euro too.
> Go, "Royal Britannia. Britannia rules the waves."




Was UK really ever was in it 100%
What I never understood was after EU was established , German and Greek currencies were abolished why not the pound? did that not say anything about the state of mind of UK! at that time?
Also I wonder was this based on sound economic  rationalization or more because of only one factor = fear of "uncontrolled immigration"


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

I was just trying to hurt David Cameron politically we didn't actually expect it to happen.


----------



## skc (24 June 2016)

Had my busiest trading day and most profitable day ever. 

Feels like I have aged a few years. 

Now for the long night (and week) ahead.

Thank you Britain. You've made my month.

God save the Queen.


----------



## skc (24 June 2016)

notting said:


> I was just trying to hurt David Cameron politically we didn't actually expect it to happen.
> 
> View attachment 67224




Definitely a "$hit what have we done" moment...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 June 2016)

UK PM Cameron has said he'll step down by October.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2016)

skc said:


> Had my busiest trading day and most profitable day ever.
> 
> Feels like I have aged a few years.




I just _knnnnnew_ you were going to watlz in and say that.  Waiting for minwa to tell us how many hundred k he made.

I'm not envious though.  Not much.


----------



## kid hustlr (24 June 2016)

FTSE going crazy bid


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2016)

Getting ready for my big short.  Would like to see it touch 6090 first (ftse).


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

There is one bright spot.
When Sweden leaves it will be a SEXIT.


----------



## NickF (24 June 2016)

skc said:


> Definitely a "$hit what have we done" moment...



I'm not sure what's he thinking, but I am down $440 for the day, so I feel entitled to think the same way...
By the looks of it, everybody else made tons of money, except for me. But the night is still young... 

Nick


----------



## Modest (24 June 2016)

notting said:


> There is one bright spot.
> When Sweden leaves it will be a SEXIT.




If they remain it will be SE-MAIN


----------



## skc (24 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Getting ready for my big short.  Would like to see it touch 6090 first (ftse).




Good call. Did you sell it (or there about)?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2016)

skc said:


> Good call. Did you sell it (or there about)?




Yeh but had to drive home, so I brexited my position.  I see volatility has shrunk fairly suddenly.


----------



## fiftyeight (24 June 2016)

Nice rally, I feel that was always going to happen. Missed it all though.

So what now?

The big money in USA has been watching all of this unfold, markets will open after there has been a gooooood rally (maybe). Do they all sell, sell sell and drag everything down back to the lows of the day or is it not actually as bad as expected so the selling is much less than anticipated and we get another rally?

I feel either way the markets break after the gap down, it will be against the trend of the day that follows. But I do love fading for some reason so I may be biased


----------



## VSntchr (24 June 2016)

Entry on the SPY open anyone?
http://quantifiableedges.com/intraday-performance-after-a-massive-gap-down/
Crazy stats there...


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

Trump in Scotland speaking favorably about Brexit...

"People are angry all over the world. They're angry over borders, they're angry over people coming into the country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are."

-Donald Trump 

I wonder how he thinks all the Muslim people in the ME felt about "people coming into their country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are" FFS.....really??? The hypocrisy of this is just unbelievable!


----------



## smallwolf (24 June 2016)

spoke to co-workers in the UK tonight.... said business' not to pleased with the result. were discussing other matters, so didnt really ask why... just a sign of the times though i think.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 June 2016)

people not to happy with Boris, be interesting to see the next poll to be undertaken


----------



## cogs (25 June 2016)

Well it turned out to be quite a trading day with lots of opportunities, now it appears business as usual. Cool, switch the EA's back on again.

I had a good day, beside 2 fat finger moments caught up in the excitment, and seeing I was thinking of sitting it out in the eleventh hr.

Was a good information gathering day, spreads, EA testing, daily ranges broken. The next exits will be mostly expected now, and no wopping gap for monday.


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 June 2016)

There would have to be some continued downward momentum I think. One day and all is forgotten? The (supposed) bargain hunters will be snatching at anything looking oversold. Ooooo!.


----------



## noirua (27 June 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> There would have to be some continued downward momentum I think. One day and all is forgotten? The (supposed) bargain hunters will be snatching at anything looking oversold. Ooooo!.




Germany will slow everything down as it slowly ties up its own deals with the UK, especially on car exports. After that's all fixed up they wont be bothered anymore. The EU ships far more to the UK than the UK does to the EU.
France's population are 62% in favour of a Frexit and the leaders there are wobbling and what about all that wine going to the UK from France, Germany, Spain and Italy - none from the cold UK climate for sure.

If the EU gets too uppity then the Brits could boycott wine and cars from the EU. Or even worse, stop all those EU fishing boats from catching fish in British waters - they take 80% of the catch at present.

So Angela Merkell the German Chancellor, will slow everything down as the wobbling EU ship could tip its cargo into the sea at the same time as they torpedo the UK. Then the EU and UK sink together.

Anyway, volatility is a good thing at times and opens up opportunities for the brave at heart. So basically, there wont be any disasters as commonsense wins the day eventually. 

Germany will do best out of this and strengthen their hand as the UK's financial sector weakens a bit. Germany will be Kings of the EU instead of just Lords, and the other EU countries becoming more subservient to them.


----------



## TorFx (28 June 2016)

*Brexit Fallout - The big traders got it all wrong.*

The Brexit market volatility was about big traders placing bad bets and little to do with the effects of the vote itself.


----------



## NickF (28 June 2016)

Is the Brexit drama finished already? I am still short on GBPJPY and I've been losing quite a lot today (270 pip to be more precise). I am expecting the GBP will reach new lows in the coming days/weeks, but the SSI is 1.7 on long, so most traders today take advantage by the recovery of the GBP

What concerns  me is the fact that USDCHF had the biggest fall on 15/01/2015 and in the next days, it recovered from fall and never reached a lower value since it had in the first day. Is there a possibility that the same could happen to GBP? I think it's a different story and the implications of the Brexit will linger around for much longer. But my account does not agree with my thinking, at least not today 

Nick


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 June 2016)

NickF said:


> Is the Brexit drama finished already? I am still short on GBPJPY and I've been losing quite a lot today (270 pip to be more precise). I am expecting the GBP will reach new lows in the coming days/weeks, but the SSI is 1.7 on long, so most traders today take advantage by the recovery of the GBP
> Nick



Obviously by lost "270 pips" you mean gave back 270 pips of (x amount pips) profit on GBPJPY ... don't you?


----------



## cynic (29 June 2016)

NickF said:


> Is the Brexit drama finished already?...




No. It's only the end of the beginning and potentially the beginning of the ending.

However, short positions may be threatened by a variety of factors when the market is in a chaotic state.

Dead cat bounces, stop runs during periods of illiquidity, central bank interventions etc. are things one may need to consider when assessing the risk of their positional exposure.


----------



## cynic (29 June 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Obviously by lost "270 pips" you mean gave back 270 pips of (x amount pips) profit on GBPJPY ... don't you?




Apart from nomenclature, does it make a difference?


----------



## NickF (29 June 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Obviously by lost "270 pips" you mean gave back 270 pips of (x amount pips) profit on GBPJPY ... don't you?




Well, not quite. My account shows that I made $78 since 24/06/2016 and at the moment I have open positions totaling -$193. So, overall I'm on negative. Don't ask me how I manage to lose money. I have an innate talent in picking the wrong direction or timing 

Nick


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 June 2016)

DAX long set up now.  Target 9666.

Currently 9570.


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 June 2016)

NickF said:


> Well, not quite. My account shows that I made $78 since 24/06/2016 and at the moment I have open positions totaling -$193. So, overall I'm on negative. Don't ask me how I manage to lose money. I have an innate talent in picking the wrong direction or timing
> 
> Nick




 Okay. At least you're in the high percentage category with that tendency. My reckoning is the trader is out of synchronicity with the market. Either too soon or too late with entry and exit. Add the innate desire to be right and it is easy to see where many go wrong. At least you're learning is not expensive.


----------



## NickF (29 June 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Okay. At least you're in the high percentage category with that tendency. My reckoning is the trader is out of synchronicity with the market. Either too soon or too late with entry and exit. Add the innate desire to be right and it is easy to see where many go wrong. At least you're learning is not expensive.




At some moment I was ahead over $240. I closed all transactions, close to bottom but I was anxious not to lose further drops, so I didn't wait long enough to short again. I had a thought, that maybe I should wait a bit more, but I was too impatient to listen to it.

It is true that I didn't lose much money. I'll recover all of it by renouncing at luxury items for the next ten years (such as toilet paper).

Nick


----------



## Modest (29 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> DAX long set up now.  Target 9666.
> 
> Currently 9570.




Nice pop, you get aboard the DAX bus?


----------



## rb250660 (29 June 2016)

All my ASX equity positions bounced up nicely yesterday and today. Took profits.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2016)

Modest said:


> Nice pop, you get aboard the DAX bus?




Yes, in a very small way.  My discretionary trading skills are worth .


----------



## cynic (30 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yes, in a very small way.  My discretionary trading skills are worth .




Many a trader of the daemonic bourse has had their capital reduced to a lesser sum.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2016)

cynic said:


> Many a trader of the daemonic bourse has had their capital reduced to a lesser sum.




You need not convince me of that!

I know of a few extremely advanced programmers in AB who struggle to get to a consistently profitable level.  These are guys who can make AB 'sing' with their coding ability.  I remain very much of the opinion that there's an x factor, which is at base, psychological.  I have collected quite a few research papers which support such a view.

So most of my trading is systematic, and it makes me a small return, but nothing I can rely on as a sole source of income.  I doubt it ever will.  The biggest three day return ever *available* from my stock systems occurred from last Thurs-Mon.... and I chose to sit it out.  I just didn't feel confident enough which is ridiculous considering the amount of 'disaster testing' I've done.

The big question (for me) is whether I can ever move to a discretionary approach and make it work.  The possibility seems like it's lifetimes away...


----------



## CanOz (30 June 2016)

The markets have certainly caught a bid, there must be an expectation of more accomodative monetary policy....more accomodative than what? That's the question....


----------



## CanOz (30 June 2016)

Well its close to the end of the day and the month. At the highs today the SPI was jusy 90 odd points from the high before the Brexit. How many think there might be some squaring of the books before month end?? 

Maybe just take some off the table and call it a reasonable loss.....


----------



## notting (30 June 2016)

The speech from the Euro dude today is totally the wrong signal.
He is saying 'there is no negotiating until GB lodges Article 50 (the exit contract).'
The last thing we need is for the Euro Bureaucrats to be pig headed about it.
It's obviously a threat to it's other members but it's stupid because it's just going to create chaos again!
The only good thing about it would be if it helps GB change it's mind!!!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (30 June 2016)

why don't they lodge it? they want out so put the paperwork in


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2016)

DAX 9625, looking for a few red bars on the 5 min now, before a long set up.  
Order at 9605 hoping for a fill.


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## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2016)

**** this is boring!

Waiting for close above 9618 on 5 min to go long.


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## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2016)

I'm actually not enjoying this at all.   All the waiting + trading micro lots (tiny reward for effort). 

Anyway, target 9636.


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## cynic (30 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm actually not enjoying this at all.   All the waiting + trading micro lots (tiny reward for effort).
> 
> Anyway, target 9636.




Some nights are like that. Monday and tuesday last week were the slowest I'd seen in a while.


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## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2016)

cynic said:


> Some nights are like that. Monday and tuesday last week were the slowest I'd seen in a while.




I'm just not suited to it.  Almost at my stop.... after all that work!


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## cynic (30 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm just not suited to it.  Almost at my stop.... after all that work!




If one is trading microlots then one is trading OTC derivatives. 

In my experience OTC combined with stop orders seldom ends well.


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## Modest (30 June 2016)

9572 looks like a nice place to play a pop up to 9607


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## Gringotts Bank (1 July 2016)

cynic said:


> If one is trading microlots then one is trading OTC derivatives.
> 
> In my experience OTC combined with stop orders seldom ends well.




Yes thanks I know that can happen.  I was doing the stop manually, so IG couldn't see it.  

I figured it out though.  It's the fact that the price is constantly moving.  With a stock system, I have so much more time to make decisions and can happily leave the screen for hours at a time.  With discretion and futcfds, you really can't rest.  It's *full on* concentration for *hours on end.* 

So I feel stressed losing a few hundred $ on a cfdfut trade, but won't be fussed when my stock systems are down 5-10k.  Either I have to systematize my cfdfut trading or zoom out my time frame.

I guess this is what people mean by finding a style of trading which suits you.  It has to be fun.


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## notting (1 July 2016)

Best analysis I have heard yet on BREXIT by Patrick Chovanec, -



> 'The leave campaign had no plan of what to do if they won!  *This is like the dog that caught the car.* If this had been something they had to enact immediately it would be an absolute disaster! All they have is time.'


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## cogs (1 July 2016)

> Best analysis I have heard yet on BREXIT by Patrick Chovanec, -



And the mayor doesn't want the front seat anyway! Or so I heard.

Well all the dust has settled and markets are back to pre.

Interesting the push up in silver, and to add the flags (with no movement yet) for gold pairs. Silver is hitting monthly resistance, but I thought these gold flags would have faded by now, there must be some more trouble brewing, not meaning to state the obvious.




The usual London open (throw mud and see if it sticks) push up just hasn't been able to close the gap, man it's bearish. So in my wisdom (or not), I can see this next GBPUSD move down coinciding with the gold flags playing out.

What will be the catalyst for the jump, or will it simply take a slight breeze to push it over the cliff to 1.30 and below?


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## notting (1 July 2016)

Ha Ha.

And deservedly so. Karma ripens -


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## notting (1 July 2016)

Listen to the old alligator
Heseltine launches scathing attack on Boris Johnson

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36677623


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## pixel (2 July 2016)

Some of the causes that riled the British Establishment, so they pushed for Brexit rather than adapting to changing conditions. *Note:* this list comes from an email that is currently making the rounds. Logic tells me that it originated in Britain, compiled by Brexiters; therefore, I won't guarantee the veracity of each detail.


> Just for info for those who were wondering what it was all about
> 
> A short list of financial and industrial FUBARs from the EU...
> 
> ...



*I can understand why some Poms are up in arms about the whole globalisation thing. 
But are YOU still a pom?
As an Australian, I can't give two hoots about who owns what in Britain.*

Many of the old UK companies were basket cases, in dire need of fresh ideas and capital. By joining the Common Market, the Brits hoped to find easier access to capital and to customers. If they had been as clever as they claimed to be, they could have influenced the EU Constitution to follow more sensible principles than what it actually turned out to be: An unwieldy top layer of red tape and bureaucracy that benefits paper shufflers and incompetent idealists. IMHO though, it's no use to act the frustrated kid, taking bat and ball and walk out in a huff. If you want to change matters in a Club where you're a paying member, you negotiate with your team members and find a sensible compromise that suits and benefits all members.

The biggest problem is, after WW2, the Brits were more interested in maintaining the facade of former glory, rather than reforming their education system to keep up with continental Europe and, later, emerging Asian countries. While the losers rolled up their sleeves and rebuilt, the Brits heaved a sigh of relief that they'd won ... and rested on their laurels. Even today, many seem to resent the loss of the Empire, only reluctantly acceding to changing it to a Commonwealth - yet still, the "Wealth" is far from evenly spread between Lords and "Common"ers.

As has been said as early as the 1920's: Britain may have won the War, but they lost the Peace. Apart from Germany and Japan, the real winners were the US, for a few decades also Russia, and more recently China.


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## notting (2 July 2016)

Europe has never had a better period than what it has enjoyed since the second world war.  Problem is that people just focus on the petty things and forget about the massive benefits of Euro.

What has been interesting about this is how the independent pound has assisted GB. They have done better than the rest of the basket because it was allowed to depreciate in tune with changing local circumstances.  

Maybe they should just all bring back their own currencies and keep all the other stuff.  Who uses cash these days any way?!  When people use cash they can pay with any of the currencies, the bank can sort out the difference with no charge for the transfer back to local currency when in the accounts.


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## pixel (2 July 2016)

notting said:


> Europe has never had a better period than what it has enjoyed since the second world war.  Problem is that people just focus on the petty things and forget about the massive benefits of Euro.
> 
> What has been interesting about this is how the independent pound has assisted GB. They have done better than the rest of the basket because it was allowed to depreciate in tune with changing local circumstances.
> 
> Maybe they should just all bring back their own currencies and keep all the other stuff.  Who uses cash these days any way?!  When people use cash they can pay with any of the currencies, the bank can sort out the difference with no charge for the transfer back to local currency when in the accounts.




I agree, Notting.
When they introduced the Euro. it ran parallel to all local currencies for several years: 







> On January 1, 1999, the European Union introduced its new currency, the euro. Originally, the euro was an overarching currency used for exchange between countries within the union while people within the countries continued to use their own currencies. Within three years, however, the euro was established as an everyday currency and replaced the domestic currencies of many member states. Although the euro is still not universally adopted by all the member states as the main currency, most of the holdouts peg their currency in some way against the euro.
> 
> Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/euro-introduction-debut.asp#ixzz4DEX3XHHo



Making it the *only* currency in most member states on the Continent, *without a common Fiscal and Taxation Policy* meant putting the cart before the horse. One size currency simply does NOT fit all across as socio-economically diverse countries as Germany and Greece, to name just two extremes. 
Even the US spilled much blood in the 1860's to remain united; their Union only survived because the same laws govern taxation, retirement, and commerce across the land. The wealthier States also contribute a greater share to the Union overall, but unlike Euroland, they don't pay it as bailout loans that they expect to receive back with interest.


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## skc (6 July 2016)

This looks slightly worrying...



> The fallout from the Brexit vote reverberated through the markets on Tuesday as two more City property funds barred investors from withdrawing their cash and the Bank of England warned that risks to the financial system had begun to “crystallise”.
> 
> City watchers warned that further property funds would be forced to bar withdrawals as investors race for the door amid fears of a plunge in the values of office blocks and shopping centres in post-Brexit Britain.




https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ing-in-its-property-fund-brexit-standard-life

Watch out LLC and WFD!!


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## Toyota Lexcen (6 July 2016)

Looking at bank share prices across the globe there is a massive crisis going on, its all starting to snowball with Italy, duestche bank, UK/brexit issues arising

Bank of Englad wants UK bankers to lend and have reduced capital requirements, not sure how far off we are from a global financial crisis


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## notting (13 June 2019)

Let's hope he doesn't retire and take up poker for a living.
I mean, lets pray he does!


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## cogs (13 June 2019)

Makes you wonder how many years this nonsense can go on for.


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