# Will the All Ords get down to 4769?



## galey (8 February 2008)

Looking at the 50% ranges it has a very good chance.
These 50% levels act as important support or resistance levels.

For example - In 1929 the Dow Jones made a high at 386 and crashed to 195 or 50% before rallying to 297. What is so important about 297? This level is also 50% between the high of 386 and the low 297.

In 1987 the All Ordinaries index culminated at 2306 before crashing to 50% or 1151. It then rallied to 50% between the high and low and made top at 1785. 
In this current phase of market activity the major low pivot point is 2666 and the major high pivot point is 6873. I doubt the All Ords will decline to 50% of 6873 or 3436 because there has not been 60 years since 1987. 60 years is the approximate time between the last three major crashes. However, it's highly likely the index will see 50% between the major range and find support near 50% or the half way point between  6872 and 2666 being 4769. That means the index has another 1000 to go. We shall see??

Check out the weekly All Ords chart  declined to 5221 and rallied only to hit its head at precisely 50%  between 6873 and 5221 or 6047. The market made a top at 6057 suggesting the first phase of this down trend is complete


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## Buffettology (8 February 2008)

*Re: Will the all ords get down to 4769 every chance*

Its funny, this magic 50% number is EXACTLY what I was discussing last night. 

Interesting if we do fall towards 4800.


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## 2BAD4U (11 February 2008)

I find it interesting that when I first read this post I didn't pay much attention to it because I had never heard of the 50% "rule" before. The very next day I came across this very subject in a book I was reading. Since then I have been going over some charts and finding examples of it time and time again.


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## Pat (11 February 2008)

2BAD4U said:


> I find it interesting that when I first read this post I didn't pay much attention to it because I had never heard of the 50% "rule" before. The very next day I came across this very subject in a book I was reading. Since then I have been going over some charts and finding examples of it time and time again.



I said to a couple of mates we might see 4800 during Jan. We never got there but there's more to come I think...:bier: so drink up!


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## Pat (11 February 2008)

Somewhere around here anyway.


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## doogie_goes_off (11 February 2008)

Fundamentally things have only changed in terms of lending. Demand for resources etc can only have decreased by ~15%, So I see 6000 on the horizon before EOFY. The sky is not falling in, it is propped up by a metal rod. Lets hope I don't get struck by lightning.


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## Buffettology (11 February 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Fundamentally things have only changed in terms of lending. Demand for resources etc can only have decreased by ~15%, So I see 6000 on the horizon before EOFY. The sky is not falling in, it is propped up by a metal rod. Lets hope I don't get struck by lightning.




ha ha, good one!

However, not entirely true!

Fundamentally IN AUSTRALIA that is true, but in the US, it has well and truly spilled over into the retail sector (which is of paramount importance).  

This could, or could not, to a large extent affect China/India/Europe and hence Australia.

Only time will tell.


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## galey (12 February 2008)

The 50% rule is the most powerful rule there is in swing charting or normal charting for that matter.
If you have read anything about Gann or Fibonacci 50% is a big player in retrenchments or price projections forward.

Ignore it at your peril, if someone can tell me how to take a screen snapshot  I’ll post some examples.


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## surfingman (12 February 2008)

galey said:


> The 50% rule is the most powerful rule there is in swing charting or normal charting for that matter.
> If you have read anything about Gann or Fibonacci 50% is a big player in retrenchments or price projections forward.
> 
> Ignore it at your peril, if someone can tell me how to take a screen snapshot  I’ll post some examples.




On your keyboard there is should be a print scrn button (not sure if all keyboards have this?), then paste it in a program such as paint > then save the file.


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## Kimosabi (12 February 2008)

surfingman said:


> On your keyboard there is should be a print scrn button (not sure if all keyboards have this?), then paste it in a program such as paint > then save the file.



Or in Vista, there is a Snipping Tool, you can cut out the part of the screen you want and save it as a JPG


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## Santob (12 February 2008)

If you press ALT+Print Screen, then it only takes a capture of the window thats at the top (ie. the one you've most recently clicked in), rather than the entire desktop.


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## galey (13 February 2008)

I've tried ALT+Print Screen, print scrn button and nothing happens.
Where does the screen shot go ? can see it on desktop or in my pictures


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## sam76 (13 February 2008)

you need to paste into a word document


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## TheAbyss (13 February 2008)

Open almost any Microsfot program and then Ctrl + V and the object will be pasted into the open window.


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## Santob (13 February 2008)

galey said:


> I've tried ALT+Print Screen, print scrn button and nothing happens.
> Where does the screen shot go ? can see it on desktop or in my pictures




It copies it onto the clipboard, so that you can then "paste" it into another application as a picture.


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## galey (17 February 2008)

Thx sorted it


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## hangseng (17 February 2008)

Pat said:


> Somewhere around here anyway.




I agree Pat.

I had this Fib retracement set on the high of 1/11/07 of 6853 to the low of 16/2/06 of 4739. I am targetting around 4750 - 4850 as the low for 2008.

Only the brave would go long short term and I am not that brave.


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## Pat (5 March 2008)

Right now this volitility has me watching and waiting. Not holding anything 
If we break through this 5400 area we may just see 4800.
Just being a pessimist.


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## xyzedarteerf (7 March 2008)

getting closer to that number


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## vishalt (9 March 2008)

Getting closer and closer now, 

S&P/ASX	FUTURES: Pointing 94 points/1.78% lower to 5176. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we went to 5100, or 5050 and then break that by the end of the week. 

After all we must suck up to the mighty US Dow Jones Industrial Average as much as possible, seeing as they broke 12,000 its only FAIR that we break 5000!

It's funny, the closer the $A and the $US get, the more it symbolises our values; pretty much the same except for gun laws.


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## Aussiejeff (9 March 2008)

vishalt said:


> Getting closer and closer now,
> 
> S&P/ASX	FUTURES: Pointing 94 points/1.78% lower to 5176.
> 
> ...




We may have to re-visit those gun laws if chaos looms.... 



AJ


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## tex.willer (9 March 2008)

The might of deleverage!

It is pretty clear, the only reason our indexes were and are at values they are at due to the abundance of cheap money in the past.

Buy CFDs, buy on margin, sell the house and pump the money into super tax free, borrow against the house and buy shares ... 

How, they'll go to where their fair values and people should consider themselves lucky to stop at 4769


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## >Apocalypto< (9 March 2008)

Buffettology said:


> ha ha, good one!
> 
> However, not entirely true!
> 
> ...




Great post,

Nice to see someone get the order in the correct manner! US down spills to europe china, china slows down affects us! great great great could not agree more!

I have always yelled sometimes screamed, don't worry about China, the buck stops with America! that card falls, down comes the house. (slowly we hope)

Good trading to u Buffettology.


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## Pat (15 July 2008)

Pat said:


> Right now this volitility has me watching and waiting. Not holding anything
> If we break through this 5400 area we may just see 4800.
> Just being a pessimist.



Could today be the bottom?


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## Gundini (15 July 2008)

Pat said:


> Could today be the bottom?




I'm wanting to believe it is, so this 50% theory stands up! 

But, this chart borrowed from another post suggests we are nowhere near the bottom, and suggests we are in the fear stage ...


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## Beej (15 July 2008)

Gundini said:


> I'm wanting to believe it is, so this 50% theory stands up!
> 
> But, this chart borrowed from another post suggests we are nowhere near the bottom, and suggests we are in the fear stage ...




As I posted in that other thread, not necessarily - if you use logarithmic price scaled XAO all AllOrds charts (as I believe you should when considering that sentiment/price graph as posted), then it looks like we are well and truly in the middle of the capitulation, maybe even the despair phase. I certianly hope this is the case!!! 

Anyone care to comment on that point? Ie Log vs Linear scaled charts when using the posted sentiment chart? I think it is a critical and important point. If you use a linear chart then the linear "mean" line represents ever diminishing returns into the future, which does not seem correct - therefore I reckon the posted sentiment chart implies a log price/value scale.

Cheers,

Beej


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## Gundini (16 September 2008)

galey said:


> Looking at the 50% ranges it has a very good chance.
> These 50% levels act as important support or resistance levels.
> 
> For example - In 1929 the Dow Jones made a high at 386 and crashed to 195 or 50% before rallying to 297. What is so important about 297? This level is also 50% between the high of 386 and the low 297.
> ...




Bump... All Ords at 4,754.20

Can't imagine that today will mark the end of the Bear, so where to from here? 3436?


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## deadset (16 September 2008)

I'd say we are in the start of the despair phase, maybe 1-3 days before it pops back up.  

Now I think alot hinges on the oil price now, will it get below $90 or was today the worst of it.  When you get the oil price and bad financial news feeding off each other on the same day, it certainly hammers the share price lower.  The commodity and oil price needs to stabilize as well.

Now unless there's a heap more bad news I'm unaware of, I'd say that for the quality companies, they couldn't get too much lower.  But there are always exceptions, especially if a bit of extra panic sets in and feeds off itself driving the market as a whole lower.

Either that or these turning points are simply extra rungs on the ladder down to despair.  There's not too many indices that you can measure which haven't already turned down lately it seems.


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## Gundini (16 September 2008)

So, are you calling a bottom for quality stock, deadset?

That seems a very brave call...

Interesting the definition of "quality stock" too! It wasn't that long ago that the likes of Allco, Centro, Babcock and Brown, and many others would have been thought of as quality stock. Best for another thread I think.

In the context of this thread though, does anybody know how this 50% theory is supposed to pan out from here? The originator of this thread, galey seems to have made his last post on Feb 17 this year...

If the truth be known, 3436 doesn't seem that unrealistic. It's far from over in the US, so outside of a small bounce, surely there is a lot more pain to come for those still invested in this market...


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## Pat (16 September 2008)

Not to sure about how the 50% rule/whatever is supposed to pan out, but today could definately be the bottom, just like any other day.  
We're at a good on the chart to see a bottom. I hopeing it is the end of the plummeting bear, It's been a while and I've been out of the market for sometime.


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## korrupt_1 (16 September 2008)

Split opinions so far...

Some are calling the bottom is here - or abouts...
Whilst others are calling the bottom yet to come...

So, can someone put up a poll and see what the general concesus is?

I'm thinking this is not the bottom.. but what do i know.. i'm nett long on some '_quality_ blue chips'...


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## Junior (16 September 2008)

When we do reach the real bottom...I don't think anyone can confidently call it.  We won't know until after the fact.


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## Gundini (16 September 2008)

Pat said:


> Not to sure about how the 50% rule/whatever is supposed to pan out, but today could definately be the bottom, just like any other day.
> We're at a good on the chart to see a bottom. I hopeing it is the end of the plummeting bear, It's been a while and I've been out of the market for sometime.




Yes Pat, today is definately the bottom, for today, hehehe... But I, like you, have been out of the market for so long that I'm am also getting a bit itchy. I think when you are figuring when to re-enter, two things definately come to mind. Firstly, if you think a stock is worth entering at $35 on a downtrending market, why wouldn't you make a mental note to buy in on the way up through $35. In the meantime, the stock may go to $24 before it bottoms, and you could grab it at $26 or $27 on the way through, thus saving you a packet in stress and cash. Secondly, I believe the first sign of a recovery from this Bear market will show in the recovery of the US housing market.



Junior said:


> When we do reach the real bottom...I don't think anyone can confidently call it.  We won't know until after the fact.




Exactly... With what has transpired over the last nearly 12 months now, and people picking bottoms at every resistant level. There was a bottom from mid March that rallied nearly 1000 points, but here we are 1400 away from that rally, and I'm only seeing the news getting worse! I'm happy to stay out until the trend is clear....


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## skyQuake (16 September 2008)

bottom's far off. Med term we could go so much lower.


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## Ken (16 September 2008)

Am i looking at this the wrong way, or should we presume the NAB dividend and all banking pay outs will fall dramatically which is why the banks are getting smashed?

if nab can keep a dividend of $2 per year, your looking at 9 %...

its whether or not they cut their pay out dividends....


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## Gundini (16 September 2008)

Like your tag, and location skyQuake....


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## skyQuake (16 September 2008)

heh thanks. Just dont turn around


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## Bushman (17 September 2008)

The All Ords finished today at 4769. Who are you - Nostradamus?


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## BentRod (17 September 2008)

LOL

It did too


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## Gundini (17 September 2008)

Bushman said:


> The All Ords finished today at 4769. Who are you - Nostradamus?




That's freaky! I hadn't noticed... Ok now the next prediction!

It will not close on 4769 for at least another 5000 years, give or take a couple of months...


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## deadset (17 September 2008)

This week is getting freaky, I can't expect good news from the US tonight, as their housing data is getting released before the start of trade.


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## a5e0i (18 September 2008)

I guess today answers this question.


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## galey (29 September 2008)

We aren't finished yet not by a long way.
For it to stop now would make it the quickest pullback in history we'll have some rallies but this downward trend will go into next year  

Keep an eye out for *Oct 16* as a turning point for change of trend be alert a day or two either side of it, look at the charts to see what they tell you check for reversal signals *4279* is not out of the question.


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## Gundini (24 October 2008)

galey said:


> Looking at the 50% ranges it has a very good chance.
> These 50% levels act as important support or resistance levels.
> 
> I doubt the All Ords will decline to 50% of 6873 or 3436 because there has not been 60 years since 1987. 60 years is the approximate time between the last three major crashes. However, it's highly likely the index will see 50% between the major range and find support near 50% or the half way point between  6872 and 2666 being 4769. That means the index has another 1000 to go. We shall see??


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## nick2fish (24 October 2008)

Gundini said:


> In the context of this thread though, does anybody know how this 50% theory is supposed to pan out from here? The originator of this thread, galey seems to have made his last post on feb 17 this year...
> 
> If the truth be known, 3436 doesn't seem that unrealistic. It's far from over in the US, so outside of a small bounce, surely there is a lot more pain to come for those still invested in this market...




In view of the carnage that is about to unfold on good Ole Wall Street tonite  and in view of the fact that the above post was written 16/09/08 I,m calling you a goddamn prophet Gundini


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## Gundini (27 October 2008)

nick2fish said:


> In view of the carnage that is about to unfold on good Ole Wall Street tonite  and in view of the fact that the above post was written 16/09/08 I,m calling you a goddamn prophet Gundini




Nothing to do with me, nick2fish, I don't really understand this theory, but it's starting to pan out as predicted by:

galey in Feb 2008! 

He is the prophet we seek....

Just over 300 points to go to reach the magical 3436.

It would seem we are too close to hold at this level, so what then, 2666?


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## nick2fish (27 October 2008)

Afraid so given that the market will overreact to any future downturn. My money is on a hold at 3300 in the shorterm before breaking down the 3000 barrier and maybe a bottom somewhere in mid 2000s. But just like everyone else at the moment.... I'm only guessing  Cheers


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## nulla nulla (30 October 2008)

Give or take 1000? Does anyone see it breaking through 3000? Hard to see it rallying to the 50% mark between the high of 6800 and the current level 3800+ to 5300 any time soon. In for a long sideways journey I feel.


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## Gundini (19 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> Nothing to do with me, nick2fish, I don't really understand this theory, but it's starting to pan out as predicted by:
> 
> galey in Feb 2008!
> 
> ...




So we bounced off 3430 this morning which is a 50% retracement from all time highs.

What odds would you offer on a close today of 3436 

I'm thinking even money!


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## Sean K (19 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> So we bounced off 3430 this morning which is a 50% retracement from all time highs.
> 
> What odds would you offer on a close today of 3436
> 
> I'm thinking even money!



Even money on 3436? 

Exactly?



I'll put a dollar on that. 

Good luck.


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## Gundini (19 November 2008)

kennas said:


> Even money on 3436?
> 
> Exactly?
> 
> ...




Ok, looks like I will owe you a $1. suprised more didn't take up the bet,lol

Surely I gest, but the Ords closed exactly on 4769, the number predicted in the thread.


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