# Prechter Predicts >100% Rise...



## wayneL (7 July 2010)

...from his previous prediction of Dow 400. LMAO

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/07/06/prechters-dow-1000-doomsaying-draws-crowds/



> *Prechter’s Dow 1,000 Doomsaying Draws Crowds*
> 
> Elliott Wave guru Robert Prechter is back in the news today, with Friday’s article in The New York Times by Jeff Sommer now the most e-mailed article on Nytimes.com...................


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## drsmith (7 July 2010)

Where's Oz these days ?


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## tech/a (7 July 2010)

Sensationalising headlines.

Brings attention to his hidden agenda---making money.
I haven't seen the count but there is likely to be at least 2 or 3 alternate counts.He'd know them all---presenting of course the most sensational.
He also predicted if I remember 14,000 as well.
Yes there was a count that indicated 14000.

Such is the Animal in Elliott.

Mind you I wouldn't be long term long!
After all 2012 23/12 and its all over baby!


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## sinner (7 July 2010)

tech/a said:


> Mind you I wouldn't be long term long!
> After all 2012 23/12 and its all over baby!




Am I a sucker if I pulled a fib timezone from the all time SPX high to crash lows and checked to see if there was a cycle line in late 2012? : 

PS: There isn't.


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## UBIQUITOUS (7 July 2010)

Not wanting this to turn into another inflation vs deflation debate, but does anybody know if Prechter points to where does all of the printed money goes? Do people just hoard it? I wouldn't have thought that the American's have the same saving mentality as the Japanese.


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## hmmm (7 July 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> but does anybody know if Prechter points to where does all of the printed money goes?




Everyone knows who hoards all the notes... which is why...



> banks and foreign exchange bureaux in Britain have stopped issuing 500â‚¬ banknotes after 90% of them were found to be linked to tax evasion, terrorism or other crimes.


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## explod (7 July 2010)

Prector's predictions are nothing new to those who have been closely looking at the fundamentals for the last five or six years.   The movements of markets are also behaving similar to those of 1928 through to the late 1930's.  Instinctively we are unnerved by thoughts of the sky falling in and in particular with the US as it has been our ally in war and peace going back 60 years or so.   However as investors we need to consider possiblities on all fronts and it is not rocket science to know that the US has been the big economic engine of the late modern world.   But also that it has spending beyond its means and has run up massive debts on all fronts; and they seem oblivious and to be doing little but further spend and stimulate as the answer. 

The old adage "when the US sneeze we catch a cold" remains true, the Dow down Friday we were down Monday and on most trading days plays that way.  Make no mistake if there is a big plunge on Wall Street we will need, in my view, to batten down.  The following chart of the Daw I have trotted out many times with a similar message of my doom angle.  It shows the wonderfull optimism and run up of the 90's and the collapse in about 01/02 of the dot.com bubble.  It was here that interest rates were first reduced to almost nothing in the US to get things going.  That in my view is what built the next uptrend in the Dow till the collapse in 08.  This time as well as lower (.025% wholesale rate) interest rates we have had stimulas money printed for the next up trend.  However this time the uptrend is stalling at a much lower level and the all stops out are no longer working.  

So where to now.   Looking at the chart we have strong support around the 8000 area but if this were to fail on its third go then the next one, and not so strong, is at 4000.   Of course a fall like that gathers momentum and then we have fear.  So I lay the case that perhaps (not saying it will) but perhaps Prector knows what he may be talking about.

Prector's muse is on Elliott Wave of course but you can bet he has a side on glance at the dangerous looking fundamentals


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## Wysiwyg (8 July 2010)

explod said:


> So where to now.   Looking at the chart we have strong support around the 8000 area but if this were to fail on its third go then the next one, and not so strong, is at 4000.   Of course a fall like that gathers momentum and then we have fear.  So I lay the case that perhaps (not saying it will) but perhaps Prector knows what he may be talking about.
> 
> Prector's muse is on Elliott Wave of course but you can bet he has a side on glance at the dangerous looking fundamentals




It's all bull dung and you know it.  The world would be genuinely facing a no oil scenario for that to happen. Anyway, on the Dow longer range it can be observed that since the beginning of this millennium there has been a lack of ascent in comparison to the previous 20 years. 

All the while China has been "modernising" and U.S.A. has failed to prosper from this. It has been 10 years since that upward trend was broken and I wonder if the time is near for an ascension again. 15000 to 18000 points on the Dow by the year 2015. Don't be surprised when it happens; remembering the movements are in percentage so the higher the number, the greater the point move to achieve that percentage. That is only a 50% to 80% ascension from around here. 
Unless oil is more of a concern. :1zhelp: Oh there is plenty of oil, now how quick can we burn it? 

A weekly logarithmic chart of the Dow perspective.


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## explod (8 July 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> It's all bull dung and you know it.
> 
> The world would be genuinely facing a no oil scenario for that to happen. Anyway, on the Dow longer range it can be observed that since the beginning of this millennium there has been a lack of ascent in comparison to the previous 20 years.
> 
> ...




Where is the rationale "*I wonder if the time is near*", what sort of reasoning is that ?

Whether you accept, agree or disagree with my hypothises (and would appear you have not really read and thought about it) we need some counter substance ole pal.

I want to believe there is light at the end of the tunnell so could you tell us why?    I think or I suspect is rubbish also.


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## Timmy (8 July 2010)

tech/a said:


> Sensationalising headlines.
> 
> Brings attention to his hidden agenda---making money.




Spot on Tech.  Can't be too hard on Prechter, he is all about exploiting the gullible and extracting their cash to subscribe to his idiotic prophesies.  More fool those who give him any credence.  I do wonder, though, about those that use Elliot Wave seriously, they must cringe when they hear these sorts of idiots mouthing off.



Wysiwyg said:


> It's all bull dung and you know it.




Spot on too.

Good article around at the moment:
*Down with Doom: How the World Keeps Defying the Predictions of Pessimists*
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matt-ridley/down-with-doom-how-the-wo_b_630792.html

Worth a read, especially for those drawn to bull dung apocalyptic visionaries.  A brief, salient quote:


> ...He still predicts that `the world is coming to a turning point'.
> 
> Ah, that phrase again. I call it turning-point-itis. It's rarely far from the lips of the prophets of doom. They are convinced that they stand on the hinge of history, the inflexion point where the roller coaster starts to go downhill. But then I began looking back to see what pessimists said in the past and found the phrase, or an equivalent, being used by in every generation...
> 
> I got back to 1830 and still the sentiment was being used. In fact, the poet and historian Thomas Macaulay was already sick of it then: _`We cannot absolutely prove that those are in error who tell us that society has reached a turning point, that we have seen our best days. But so said all before us, and with just as much apparent reason.'_ He continued: `_On what principle is it that, when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us.'_




Here is a source with some of Prechter's apocalyptic bull dung calls:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/robert-prechter/
Some examples:
In 2002 he called for a fall back to the lows of 70 years ago.
Later in 2002 he was furiously back-pedalling, but he still didn't get it, calling for the DOW to lose half its value over the next six months.
2003 - still looking for a DOW below 4000.
2004 - DOW to go below 1,000
2005 - decline to leave 10,000 (in the DOW) behind for good

And so on it goes.

Leave this Prechter guy for the gullible and easily duped.


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## explod (8 July 2010)

Timmy, that article has more holes than wire netting canoe and most statements are generalisations.

The now almost insurmountable debt in developed nations is not a generalisation but a fact.

And the demise of FAI, Fannie Mai et el now owned mostly (for what is left) by the taxpayers *are facts*

Someone used to say roll on Doc, like that. or was that Ducati ?  not sure if he agreed either.  Anyway what I see and know is what I have to believe for myself only.


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## professor_frink (8 July 2010)

explod said:


> Timmy, that article has more holes than wire netting canoe and most statements are generalisations.
> 
> The now almost insurmountable debt in developed nations is not a generalisation but a fact.
> 
> ...




explod, it's a little hard to compare his bearish prediction with the current situation we are in

Prechter had been calling for the dow to fall to 400 since the 1987 crash! Regardless of whether the current problems lead to the kinds of falls he's calling for or not, he's basically got zero credibility as a forecaster IMO.


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## Timmy (8 July 2010)

professor_frink said:


> explod, it's a little hard to compare his bearish prediction with the current situation we are in
> 
> Prechter had been calling for the dow to fall to 400 since the 1987 crash! Regardless of whether the current problems lead to the kinds of falls he's calling for or not, *he's basically got zero credibility as a forecaster IMO*.




Correct.
Like someone once said:


Timmy said:


> Leave this Prechter guy for the gullible and easily duped.


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## explod (8 July 2010)

professor_frink said:


> explod, it's a little hard to compare his bearish prediction with the current situation we are in
> 
> Prechter had been calling for the dow to fall to 400 since the 1987 crash! Regardless of whether the current problems lead to the kinds of falls he's calling for or not, he's basically got zero credibility as a forecaster IMO.




Yep you are right, as usual get a bit emotional then run way off the track.

But good lively exuberance all round.


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