# Market took a hammering today



## Luke6450 (11 September 2006)

All Ords down 69.7... tsk tsk tsk what an average day..... Hopefully there is a pick up tomorrow hey....


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## CanOz (11 September 2006)

There might be more to come yet! Put your lifejackets on......and look for buying opportunities.


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## Luke6450 (11 September 2006)

Hmmmm...... We will see...... Time will tell, time will tell.....


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## justjohn (11 September 2006)

Oil sinking ,Gold $596 here we go :grenade: can't wait till tomorrow :


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## smoothsatin (11 September 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> There might be more to come yet! Put your lifejackets on......and look for buying opportunities.




What sector/stocks are looking for an opportunity to buy?


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## Luke6450 (11 September 2006)

Well I was hoping the market would stick above that 5000 mark and slowly start heading upwards again.... but noooooooooo... Are we in a bear market or what? I think so!


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## mime (11 September 2006)

I got slammed today too.

Any idea why?


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## GreatPig (11 September 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> I got slammed today too.
> 
> Any idea why?


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## juddy (11 September 2006)

Blame BIS.


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## smoothsatin (11 September 2006)

juddy said:
			
		

> Blame BIS.




I recall in Jan 05, BIS saying that overnight cash rate would be 8% by the end of 06!


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## kr1zh (11 September 2006)

September 11 traumatised?


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## juddy (11 September 2006)

smoothsatin said:
			
		

> I recall in Jan 05, BIS saying that overnight cash rate would be 8% by the end of 06!





yep, they're not always right, but the market takes notice of them.


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## coyotte (11 September 2006)

Could be something to do with world wide TIGHTENING LIQUIDITY.

Which is being confirmed by :

MacBank begining to decline last Wed
BHP  confirming with it's decline Wed
US treasurey yields 30y/5y  @ 1.05 and climbing   
Base Metals & Crude falling @ a greater percentage than POG


IMHO the only thing to prevent the June Lows being tested , is that the SP500  makes a close ABOVE 1315 ---- time to SHORT coming into Oct/Nov


Cheers


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## Smurf1976 (12 September 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Could be something to do with world wide TIGHTENING LIQUIDITY.



Sooner or later something, or everything, breaks under a scenario of tightening liquidity. Real estate looks pretty sick in Sydney and much of the US. It wouldn't surprise me to see the ASX go the same way, after all the Dow has gone sideways for 7 YEARS now (a substantial ongoing bear market in "real" terms adjusting for inflation). 

I'll be ultra bullish on stocks and real estate when underlying conditions favour a bull market. But the way I see it that's not now or in the near future. Of course there are still good opportunities to make money, but simply throwing cash at _any_ stock or property is a strategy for bull markets and especially inflating bubbles, not bear markets. Choose carefully...


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## Realist (12 September 2006)

It's taken a hammering this morning as well. Not so sure why, the DJ was up a little last night.

I've taken a severe beating myself in the past 30 hours.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (12 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> It's taken a hammering this morning as well. Not so sure why, the DJ was up a little last night.
> 
> I've taken a severe beating myself in the past 30 hours.




Most of my stops got hit yesterday, so I'm buying some today, what a shocking day.
Hope the market dosen't get beaten again tommorrow.


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## nioka (12 September 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> I got slammed today too.
> 
> Any idea why?



You only lose if you sell? I guess I'm worth less today but there is next week and I don't think any of the companies I have shares in are diong any worse than they were a day or two ago.


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## ice (12 September 2006)

We are a resource dominated market. 
That allowed us to make all time highs and outperform other western markets the last 2-3 years. 
If/when resources sneeze the whole market gets a cold. 
Will it turn into pneumonia?


ice


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## Realist (12 September 2006)

ice said:
			
		

> We are a resource dominated market.
> That allowed us to make all time highs and outperform other western markets the last 2-3 years.
> If/when resources sneeze the whole market gets a cold.
> Will it turn into pneumonia?




I don't totally disagree but my Westfield and Fosters shares are taking a bath - why are they down?


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## powerkoala (12 September 2006)

wow
bhp down more than 5%
is this a bargain ?


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## CanOz (12 September 2006)

I had trailing stops on, and they all got hit yesterday( mining and oil). I managed to suffer a "less loss" because of them though. I'm now 100% in cash. I think i'll just watch for a while.


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## Realist (12 September 2006)

Well there was a thread earlier this year saying we are due for a correction in September/October and most people agreed. I certainly did.

I'd have been tempted to pull out last week of August and buy back in early November, but the brokerage of selling everything and buying everything back just aint worth it.

I'll just sit and watch and curse.

I'm glad I do not own WPL that is for sure...

I'm getting smashed on BHP and RIO and others though.  Possibly unfairly they are both making huge profits and will continue to do so even if Resource prices dip.


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## SevenFX (12 September 2006)

powerkoala said:
			
		

> wow
> bhp down more than 5%
> is this a bargain ?




Tomorrow's/Next Weeks price will tell you whether you got a bargin or paid too much.


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## Magdoran (12 September 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Could be something to do with world wide TIGHTENING LIQUIDITY.
> 
> Which is being confirmed by :
> 
> ...




Sounds about right to me...


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## CanOz (12 September 2006)

On the positive side there are some nice gaps being created. Watch for reversals and we might pick up some uptrends intent on gap filling in the coming weeks.


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## warney (12 September 2006)

this is getting ugly,my entire watchlist is red


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (12 September 2006)

If the materials sector dosen't pull up in the close, I reckon the market might soften up even more tommorrow. Spewing!

That said, its to late for me, I just bought up this morning. 

Hopefully it rebounds, seems like cheap SP prices for the sound stocks. 

I'm punting on a rebound anyway!


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## Realist (12 September 2006)

I got dorked all ends up today.

Down 2.1%.


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## Alfredbra (12 September 2006)

september 11th in the US, perhaps this has alot to do with stocks being down today and yesterday?


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## Realist (12 September 2006)

Alfredbra said:
			
		

> september 11th in the US, perhaps this has alot to do with stocks being down today and yesterday?




US stocks were up a little though.

My saving grace was a measley 5% rise in my Nasdaq shares.


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## Alfredbra (12 September 2006)

really? hmmm my asx stocks were down 10% plus and one topping it off at 16% down! very angry today. for long term investors would it be appropiate to hold off all stocks during this time of september and august as some ppl believe?


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## dj_420 (12 September 2006)

it depends on what you call long term.
For me my u stocks are long term MTN, SMM, AGS
Im holding these ones for at least 5 years, so im not particularly worried as yet, i will just keep adding on pullbacks.

but if you are long term what is the point of selling out every years during sept/oct. it just doesnt make any sense.


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## Luke6450 (12 September 2006)

Great two days of hammering.... If it doesnt improve tomorrow I can see myself being stopped out of all my shares.... Really hoping some super funds or something gets thrown in to push it up in the right direction again..... But what if it does continue to be so bearish? What do we do then... Keep trading with a lot less chance of getting a winning trade or do we change markets.... Not sure if there is any other good markets out there at the moment. Someone on the thread said Dow has been going sidways for 7 years now.... Jeeeeze... They sure are making it hard for ppl to make money these days now arent they.. What do we do ... what do we do!?


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## wavepicker (12 September 2006)

Luke6450 said:
			
		

> Great two days of hammering.... If it doesnt improve tomorrow I can see myself being stopped out of all my shares.... Really hoping some super funds or something gets thrown in to push it up in the right direction again..... But what if it does continue to be so bearish? What do we do then... Keep trading with a lot less chance of getting a winning trade or do we change markets.... Not sure if there is any other good markets out there at the moment. Someone on the thread said Dow has been going sidways for 7 years now.... Jeeeeze... They sure are making it hard for ppl to make money these days now arent they.. What do we do ... what do we do!?





It's hard if you buy and hold, on the other hand in those 7 years we have had some great tradeable swings as well. Would not surprise me at all to see a similiar scenario unfold in the ASX.


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## Luke6450 (12 September 2006)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> It's hard if you buy and hold, on the other hand in those 7 years we have had some great tradeable swings as well. Would not surprise me at all to see a similiar scenario unfold in the ASX.



Do you trade the US market? Are you form the US?


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## stiger (12 September 2006)

Luke6450 said:
			
		

> Great two days of hammering.... If it doesnt improve tomorrow I can see myself being stopped out of all my shares.... Really hoping some super funds or something gets thrown in to push it up in the right direction again..... But what if it does continue to be so bearish? What do we do then... Keep trading with a lot less chance of getting a winning trade or do we change markets.... Not sure if there is any other good markets out there at the moment. Someone on the thread said Dow has been going sidways for 7 years now.... Jeeeeze... They sure are making it hard for ppl to make money these days now arent they.. What do we do ... what do we do!?



Wait till the lemmings stop migration then get on uto and nwr.IMHO both of them have the goods.Dyor. Cheers.


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## justjohn (12 September 2006)

All this carnage has happened with the US markets are up slightly what kind of bath are we going to get when they start to fall   .Some good news gold is pushing up so this might have a steadying effect for tomorrow .We actually might see some GREEN  .


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## canny (12 September 2006)

Probably the best early evening indicator here is this site - which updates itself.
*http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/*
Looking fairly even right now - don't expect a major DOW down, it's the commodities prices and POO that sent everyone running to the bank stocks today.
I just see it as a time to bargain hunt nd top the trolley - look at hte oversold stocks where all you poor buggers have been stopped out - and I'll hop in to ride them back up to 'normal' again!
Took a 10% gain from BMN today - getting in after it had bottomed and out this afternoon.
You CAN trade these days if you pick the stocks that have been savaged and will bounce.


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## mime (12 September 2006)

This kind of "Correction" is unfair. The average PE of stocks on the asx is 13. That's not over valued. I got hit soooooo hard today that it'll take maybe 6 months to a year to regain where I was. When will some sainty control the market and not fear.


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## nioka (12 September 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> This kind of "Correction" is unfair. The average PE of stocks on the asx is 13. That's not over valued. I got hit soooooo hard today that it'll take maybe 6 months to a year to regain where I was. When will some sainty control the market and not fear.



If the market is not overvalued why did you sell ?


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## Magdoran (13 September 2006)

Luke6450 said:
			
		

> Great two days of hammering.... If it doesnt improve tomorrow I can see myself being stopped out of all my shares.... Really hoping some super funds or something gets thrown in to push it up in the right direction again..... But what if it does continue to be so bearish? What do we do then... Keep trading with a lot less chance of getting a winning trade or do we change markets.... Not sure if there is any other good markets out there at the moment. Someone on the thread said Dow has been going sidways for 7 years now.... Jeeeeze... They sure are making it hard for ppl to make money these days now arent they.. What do we do ... what do we do!?



Funny, Luke6450,


I thought you were using the “famous” Darvas system aren't you?  Why don’t you just following your system’s rules?


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## Magdoran (13 September 2006)

General Comment: Reading many of the comments on this thread gives me the impression that many do not understand how to deal with these market conditions.  Would that be a fair estimation?

If not, why didn’t people making comments on this thread holding long positions use protective strategies like buying puts or selling their shares to ameliorate any bearish moves if they had a bearish estimation of the market? (Of course long term holders have a long term view, and that is a different matter – but protection still would have been a viable course of action, wouldn’t it?).

Furthermore, if a person held the view that there were bearish probabilities why wouldn’t they have taken bearish positions in the market and take advantage of the downward movement?  I’d suggest that you can make very good profits from the short side of the market (often much more quickly than bullish strategies).

I have held no long positions this month in ASX optionable stocks (I only trade options available from the optionable stocks for the ASX – no small caps/shares).  Perhaps there were a couple of longs to be had, but by far all I could see were shorts.  Am I the odd person out here?


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (13 September 2006)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> General Comment: Reading many of the comments on this thread gives me the impression that many do not understand how to deal with these market conditions.  Would that be a fair estimation?
> 
> If not, why didn’t people making comments on this thread holding long positions use protective strategies like buying puts or selling their shares to ameliorate any bearish moves if they had a bearish estimation of the market? (Of course long term holders have a long term view, and that is a different matter – but protection still would have been a viable course of action, wouldn’t it?).
> 
> ...




No I'm similar

I predominatly short trade and with the channels.

My stops on my oilers got hit a few days back, I left them till today and took the punt. Still a bit sus on oilers at the moment though!

I did have a few longs in place with trailing stops that had been progressively moved up as I thought the SP had a bit more run (KZL,BSG,BDG,PDN,ZFX,MRE). these got hit yesterday and I sold. I didn't make the highs but I certainly took some decent profits.

I bought straight back into the same stocks today though.


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## Magdoran (13 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> No I'm similar
> 
> I predominatly short trade and with the channels.
> 
> ...





Ahhh, Good to see!


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## Luke6450 (13 September 2006)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Funny, Luke6450,
> 
> 
> I thought you were using the “famous” Darvas system aren't you?  Why don’t you just following your system’s rules?




Yeah I am using the darvas system and i am following the rules. But if the market keeps going down it is going to force me out of a lot of shares... Nice improvement today though ... Bring on the upward trend!


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## Dutchy3 (13 September 2006)

XJO is taking a rest ... has been for months.

Trading since the end of May indicates a narrowing band to me ... given the fact that this band is on the wrong side of the top and the way in which the market has retreated from 5150 is not bullish for the rest of the calender year.

Volumes are drying up too... need volumes to substantially increase to power onto new highs from here.


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## twojacks28 (13 September 2006)

this doesnt apply all the time but usually when the school holidays on the market goes down.this is just a general statement as many families go away for a few weeks and dont bother bout trading while they are away.


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## Magdoran (13 September 2006)

Luke6450 said:
			
		

> Yeah I am using the darvas system and i am following the rules. But if the market keeps going down it is going to force me out of a lot of shares... Nice improvement today though ... Bring on the upward trend!



Will your system identify shorting opportunities?


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## Bobby (14 September 2006)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Will your system identify shorting opportunities?




Magdoran


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## Realist (14 September 2006)

All's well that ends well.   ASX seems to be recovering nicely.

Although I will not be too confident until the end of October.


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## Julia (14 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> All's well that ends well.   ASX seems to be recovering nicely.
> 
> Although I will not be too confident until the end of October.




So, Realist, are you forecasting we will zap back into everything being hunky dory from November on????

Julia


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## Realist (14 September 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> So, Realist, are you forecasting we will zap back into everything being hunky dory from November on????
> 
> Julia





Yes I am funnily enough. I said months ago September and October will be rocky, and November onwards should be good - history shows that is usually the case. That is my guess anyway.

But what do I know?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 September 2006)

Whats troubling me is that the XAO and XJO didn't really and haven't really made any significant gains since May correction, 

ie XAO has failed to break above 5100 and hold properly twice now = Double Header, if it had an it ran up a bit more to say 5200 or so then another Sept/Oct Correction would be ok so long as it fell back to 5100 support line, instead we've been ranging sideways which has me very suprised (although a few on here were calling sideways for a few months)

But whats most interesting is that the DJIA in the US has been hitting the highest levels since after the correction, ie it seems to be getting ready to test those May highs  Last: *11,543.32*  Change: +45.23  +0.39%  Volume: 214,190,218  

But I have been pretty unaffected this time round which is a good thing    (Glad I offloaded BMO @29c and CBH @ 50c  )


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