# Could be a big hike on the LME tonight



## markrmau (20 April 2005)

*Could be a big hike on the LME tonight.*

Unless this was factored in last night??? look at intra day of BHP to judge for yourself.

From AFR:

China's economy grew 9.5 per cent in the first quarter, the same rate as for all of 2004 and compared to 9.7 per cent in the same period last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

Economic output by value totalled 3.13 trillion yuan ($490 billion) in the three months to March, the NBS said.

Fixed-asset investment, which reflects government spending on infrastructure, increased 22.8 per cent in the first quarter, just slightly slower than the 25.8 per cent growth rate for 2004, according to the figures.

"The total size of investment is too large. Shortages of coal, electricity, petroleum and transportation are still prominent," NBS spokesman Zheng Jingpin said, warning of pressure on resources to fuel the rapidly expanding economy.

Mr Zheng indicated China faced difficulties trying to cool the economy.


 "The price for some upstream products rose by a bigger margin than desired and the task of macro-economic regulation is still arduous," he said.

"Macro-economic regulation and control should be meticulously implemented in order to consolidate and strengthen the good momentum of national economic performance."

The Chinese government has targeted growth of about 8 per cent this year but many non-government economists expect 8 or 9 per cent, or even more.

Wednesday's figures came just ahead of the first anniversary of a government campaign to cool soaring fixed-investment levels and bring the economy back onto a more sustainable growth track.

The campaign has centred on pegging back credit to the most overheating sectors - autos, steel and real estate - while trying to bring fixed-asset investment under some measure of control.


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## Investor (20 April 2005)

*Re: Could be a big hike on the LME tonight.*

Yes, all base metal prices are rising on the LME spot prices at the moment, with copper leading the rise.

BHP is 1.1% higher and RIO is 0.8% higher on the FTSE now.


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## DTM (20 April 2005)

*Re: Could be a big hike on the LME tonight.*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Yes, all base metal prices are rising on the LME spot prices at the moment, with copper leading the rise.
> 
> BHP is 1.1% higher and RIO is 0.8% higher on the FTSE now.




Doh!!!  I read the news the wrong way and cost me 3k.    Ouch!!!!

Now will be watching the missed profits.    

Thanks for the peice of information Mark.  It actually came out before the market digested it.  I just traded it wrong.


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## markrmau (21 April 2005)

*Re: Could be a big hike on the LME tonight.*

Damm - forgot to think of oil. Should have bought wpl. Oil just gapped up.

Also, "Mr Zheng indicated China faced difficulties trying to cool the economy." One sure way to cool it would be to allow the Yuan to appreciate, another reason to buy gold miners. Alternatively the Chinese may not want to do this as it may encourage their property bubble. I'm not sure.

However, should mention - Chinese figures are notorious for being revised.


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## Investor (21 April 2005)

*Re: Could be a big hike on the LME tonight.*

Looks like the base metal rises did not negate the negative sentiment on Wall Street. ASX will probably have a down day today. 

However, all this is merely short term volatility and only matters if one is a trader. For long term investors, the bigger question is longer term trend. If the bull market is over (unclear at this juncture), will the bear market be a sustained one (a few years) or a brief (a year or two) one? 

Interesting times. It might become clearer over the next few months, but the world has never experienced the huge fiscal imbalances that are now in place (adds a lot of additional uncertainties into the picture). Hence, only time will tell. Latest issue of aireview (no. 55) has some coverage about the bull market view versus the bear market view. The jury is still out at the moment.


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