# Is anyone actually buying?



## prawn_86 (18 December 2007)

Isnt it funny how everyone goes quiet when times are bad...

Is anyone out there buying?

Or are people waiting for things to settle?

Personally im happy holding what i have with a 1 year minimum timeframe, but there are a few other good opportunities at the moment, imo.

However if i did have cash i would be waiting to see where the market bottoms out.


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## adobee (18 December 2007)

I bought up on friday and now have no cash... I am not very happy at the moment.. I will hold.. half this problem is people selling and trying to get back in at the bottom ...


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

Maybe they are quiet because they are busy buying.
I think you would be mad not buying today, companies like MQG, ZFX, BHP, LGL..... the list goes on and on, they are all selling at very good prices. If your holding long then today would be a very good buying opp.

Cheers


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## adobee (18 December 2007)

there must be someone buying for all these shares to be selling .. are these mainly institutions or people with big brass basketballs.. ?


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## Synergy (18 December 2007)

Buying tissues. 

Lets see how much we can recover this afternoon. Anything less than 100 down will be reasonable i think. Still I won't be able to afford a pack of hankies.


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## Nyden (18 December 2007)

adobee said:


> i bought up on friday and now have no cash... I am not very happy at the moment.. I will hold.. half this problem is people selling and trying to get back in at the bottom ...




Yes, exactly - everyone is holding out for a bottom...what they don't realise is, they *create* the darn bottom! If enough buy in, boom - a bottom is established. I guess cash holders want to get in as low as possible though, with only 6% of my portfolio in cash, none of this does me any good though 

Someone start up a pole on how portfolios are fairing  Might make me feel better to know, that a lot of others are in the same sinking boat here in the Red Sea!


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

adobee said:


> i bought up on friday and now have no cash... I am not very happy at the moment.. I will hold.. half this problem is people selling and trying to get back in at the bottom ...



I'm sure your not the only one mate I have none left either.... I bought MQG at $75.5 a few weeks ago, which is a good price IMHO.... watched them go to $82.6 (20/20 hindsight would have sold) ) only to watch them slip to $73.65 this morning.

Cheers


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

Anyone buying today should have a long term objective. I bought some ACE yesterday with an order I have had in for a couple of weeks. They cost me half a cent more than the price today but I bought with a long term view and am happy to hold.


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## MS+Tradesim (18 December 2007)

There must be buyers as XAO has recovered 0.4%


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## Uncle Festivus (18 December 2007)

Yes, some company fundamentals are still sound, so these levels are bargains - mainly talking gold stocks, particularly LGL today.


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## numbercruncher (18 December 2007)

Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns releases this week and it doesnt smell good, so we cant expect repreive soon im thinking.


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

Synergy said:


> Buying tissues.
> 
> Lets see how much we can recover this afternoon. Anything less than 100 down will be reasonable i think. Still I won't be able to afford a pack of hankies.



Yes, we really are out stripping the other markets lately, namely the US. Every time they have gone down we have followed, and then some!!!. When they have gone up we have had lackluster days.
What is wrong with us? the amount we have fallen over the last 2 days seems a bit silly to me over reaction!

Cheers


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

adobee said:


> there must be someone buying for all these shares to be selling .. are these mainly institutions or people with big brass basketballs.. ?



Some of today's buyers are the ones that helped engineer the fall. Brokers and traders only make money when there is buying and selling. Long term holders are a dead loss to them.


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

What you are assuming (right or wrong) is that after today's drop, the Market will bounce back tomorrow. It may, but it may not. 

Frankly, there aren't many positives to influence buying at the moment. That doesn't detract from the fact that companies like BHP, RIO, ZFX etc are good solid companies but it does influence the Markets confidence in buying.

As a side note, I've noticed that AFG has had a huge drop to (-16.873%) and CNP has dropped another (-52.941%). This may be the start of the true repercussions of the sub prime issue.


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## ithatheekret (18 December 2007)

Just my personal opinion .........

If we touch below 6100 , I would weigh in a 5800 test .

Been waiting for the breach of 6200 for a couple of weeks now , and it looked iffy on getting there .


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## JTLP (18 December 2007)

I think most buyers will hold out at least until next monday. Has been a very poor start to the week and after reading some things off the CNN site and the economic calender, things really look to be still heading downhill


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> *Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns releases this week* and it doesnt smell good, so we cant expect repreive soon im thinking.




And there we have it.

This is what will decide where the market goes next.

If this info is bad, then we will be hit very hard.


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## numbercruncher (18 December 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Yes, we really are out stripping the other markets lately, namely the US. Every time they have gone down we have followed, and then some!!!. When they have gone up we have had lackluster days.
> What is wrong with us? the amount we have fallen over the last 2 days seems a bit silly to me over reaction!
> 
> Cheers





Our entire Economy thanks to the Liberal party is based on a hole in the ground and the World knows it, I think Australia has the potential to be spanked harder than any other Western economy if there is a world wide slowdown or recession.


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Our entire Economy thanks to the Liberal party is based on a hole in the ground and the World knows it, I think Australia has the potential to be spanked harder than any other Western economy if there is a world wide slowdown or recession.




Exactly.

This is why i am concerned and have prefaced a few of my posts with my concerns about the AUS market.

We will be hit very hard.

Look at who and what has been driving our market higher.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (18 December 2007)

Hi guys!!!!!

I've been away for the last few days, but am back,

Wow, looks like I got back just in the nick of time,

Yeah I'm buying selected stories, 

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH


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## prawn_86 (18 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Our entire Economy thanks to the Liberal party is based on a hole in the ground and the World knows it, I think Australia has the potential to be spanked harder than any other Western economy if there is a world wide slowdown or recession.




Im not too good with macro economics, but shouldnt this shield us to some extent?

The Chindia story isnt slowing down for at least 2 years, and even then resources will be needed, especially if the world moves towards cutting greenhouse emissions. Materials for electric cars, wind towers, solar panels etc etc will still be needed.


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## Nyden (18 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> Im not too good with macro economics, but shouldnt this shield us to some extent?
> 
> The Chindia story isnt slowing down for at least 2 years, and even then resources will be needed, especially if the world moves towards cutting greenhouse emissions. Materials for electric cars, wind towers, solar panels etc etc will still be needed.




Very true, thank you Prawn. I needed that fundamental slap in the face to calm me down  

Market actually seems to be recovering a little?

Hey, don't criticize Australia's hole in the ground guys! All of my stocks need that


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## numbercruncher (18 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> Im not too good with macro economics, but shouldnt this shield us to some extent?
> 
> The Chindia story isnt slowing down for at least 2 years, and even then resources will be needed, especially if the world moves towards cutting greenhouse emissions. Materials for electric cars, wind towers, solar panels etc etc will still be needed.




Yes rollout of Infrastructure will always create some demand, but its consumerism backed by cheap easy debt thats driven this boom, 70pc of the US econmomy is consumerism - 9t worth - see a marked downturn in that which is looking increasingly likely, No one yet knows for sure the result, but present indicators dont look so good.


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## cuttlefish (18 December 2007)

I'm still bullish on gold so topped up on a couple of those today.  Already quite loaded up on gold stocks. The flight to cash in a proper rout will probably hit everything hard initially - especially the unwinding of margin funded and debt funded holdings which are the ones that cause panic selling and massively oversold situations - so could be more to come on that front. 

I think the aussie market yesterday and today has taken things pretty hard though, it must be factoring in a continuing bad week for the US.


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> Im not too good with macro economics, but shouldnt this shield us to some extent?
> 
> The Chindia story isnt slowing down for at least 2 years, and even then resources will be needed, especially if the world moves towards cutting greenhouse emissions. Materials for electric cars, wind towers, solar panels etc etc will still be needed.




While you are right and those nations won't be standing still the fear is what effect will the US consumer have on them, especially China.

We have a lot of new mines coming on board and increased production from existing mines, so if there is a slowdown in the US and this has an effect on China, then metal stocks rise and prices fall.

By historical averages, the prices will still be good, but they will not be as good as what share prices on these miners have been evaluated on.

Not to mention the cost of these miners borrowing and the higher cost of everything involved in capex and energy.

just my 2c


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## chewy (18 December 2007)

Believe it or not DOW futures are actually showing UP at the moment - some small comfort. 

And yeah there are a few stocks I would be buying today if I had any cash left


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

I just watched the market go from 140 odd points down to 110 points down in a few minutes, hopefully people are seeing bargains and the recovery is starting


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## waz (18 December 2007)

AFG is looking very good today, it does have other forms of making money besides Rubicon.

Currently its sitting on a very very low current PE ratio. The lowest I've seen for any Australian investment bank for a few years.
Ofcourse its possible that next years profits can halve, but even with that its still cheap.


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## Who Dares Wins (18 December 2007)

I got some more TTY.

Someone said a while ago that with a 30% increase in ore prices next year they would be worth $2.00 not to mention an expected resource upgrade soon, so I feel at $1.21 today I had to get a few more. 

Also looking to pick up some IBG, about 84 cents currently down from $1.10?  a week or two ago. I think theres more to come on the IBG story.

Resources will continue everyone, I'd like to qoute a piece from a RIO report dated 26 Nov 2007 - _" it is important to recognise that the US is now significantly less important in world commodity demand than it was just 5 years ago. Our analysis suggests that even a sharp slowing in the US economy would have only a small impact on Chinese and Indian economic growth and consequent demand for commodities ". _

Most of us know this anyway right? So why the sell off?


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## chewy (18 December 2007)

Yeah I agree TTY is a good buy today. If I had spare cash i'd pick some more up as well as CVN.


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

Who Dares Wins said:


> I got some more TTY.
> 
> Someone said a while ago that with a 30% increase in ore prices next year they would be worth $2.00 not to mention an expected resource upgrade soon, so I feel at $1.21 today I had to get a few more.
> 
> ...




The US slowdown hasn't been the ignition for the sell off it is the credit crises.

Once people start to become more risk adverse, they then start to relook at other things.

Credit market + US slowdown at the very least means you should re evaluate.

Maybe not sell, but at least re evaluate and tread warily.

If all this blows over quickly, those who bought at bargain basement will be very happy but if not........


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## Rainmaker2000 (18 December 2007)

I've been a little busy this morning.........I bought a heap of Phone Zone but that's not really affecting by falls........unfortunately, many of my stocks are green today, as opposed to yesterday.

I'm keeping my eye on JST for a convenient re-entry.....

I'm really just hoping the correction takes more shine of PTM......that's my Rainmaker..hehe


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## trinity (18 December 2007)

> I just watched the market go from 140 odd points down to 110 points down in a few minutes, hopefully people are seeing bargains and the recovery is starting




Hopefully up for a slight recovery ... we are now down by -73


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

yes, it would seem that the recovery was starting but its not over till the fat lady sings... see what happens by 4pm.


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## numbercruncher (18 December 2007)

Future Fund PPT at work ?


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## steven1234 (18 December 2007)

Will we see selling into the rallies or will people start pulling their sell orders as they beleive the bottom has hit?

Its been a few days down now, i expect most worried about margin calls have sold out by now or will do so on the way up today.


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

Since the market has been volatile we have had a lot of late day sell offs.

I'm not buying back in yet anyways, so it doesn't effect me but be wary of these late day sell offs.

I'm not talking about in this correction but all though our volatile period.


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## Mofra (18 December 2007)

Who Dares Wins said:


> Resources will continue everyone, I'd like to qoute a piece from a RIO report dated 26 Nov 2007 - _" it is important to recognise that the US is now significantly less important in world commodity demand than it was just 5 years ago. Our analysis suggests that even a sharp slowing in the US economy would have only a small impact on Chinese and Indian economic growth and consequent demand for commodities ". _
> 
> Most of us know this anyway right? So why the sell off?



In fundamentals, yes. In the reality we are interesting (and therefore the resultant market share price) then not quite. The XJO level of foreign ownership has climbed to over 40% currently, and it appears some of these foreign investment banks/hedge funds etc. may be forced to sell if the conditions in the US continue to deteriorate.


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

wow..... only 45 points down now, thats quite a move:bonk: why the big move??
I tell you what people.... either way, I am drinking up my JD tonight:bier:


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## Kimosabi (18 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Our entire Economy thanks to the Liberal party is based on a hole in the ground and the World knows it, I think Australia has the potential to be spanked harder than any other Western economy if there is a world wide slowdown or recession.



We also just happen to have the highest ratio of Debt per Person on the Planet, but we shouldn't worry about debt after the greatest worldwide credit expansion in history...


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## dastrix (18 December 2007)

I'm going to wait for tomorrow to see what MQG brings, no good news that I can see so I cant work out why the recovery.. im hoping for a bit more of a slide, Like MQG for high 72's


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

dastrix said:


> I'm going to wait for tomorrow to see what MQG brings, no good news that I can see so I cant work out why the recovery.. im hoping for a bit more of a slide, Like MQG for high 72's



Not quite sure what you mean.... good news in general or good news from MQG themself?
Also MQG did hit high 72's today


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## dastrix (18 December 2007)

Good news in general, ie something to suggest why there is a massive decline other than subprime stuff

I know, I missed the boat on that one. I have a order in, we'll see  it just dropped 20c (MQG that is)


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## dastrix (18 December 2007)

I'm a little fish! but it went through

18 Dec 2007 15:16:Trade: Bought MQG @ $72.950


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## rub92me (18 December 2007)

Was very tempted to do some buying in the morning(ZFX: tempted for the first time in more than a year, ADY), but decided to hold off. Now kicking myself of course. Ah, hindsight


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

dastrix said:


> I'm a little fish! but it went through
> 
> 18 Dec 2007 15:16:Trade: Bought MQG @ $72.950




Dont think your the only one, MQG second on comsec's buy list.


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

waz said:


> AFG is looking very good today, it does have other forms of making money besides Rubicon.
> 
> Currently its sitting on a very very low current PE ratio. The lowest I've seen for any Australian investment bank for a few years.
> Ofcourse its possible that next years profits can halve, but even with that its still cheap.




I tend to agree about AFG. The only concern is they will get caught up in the freefall even though they are much less risky than some of the others out there.

Note: Just purchased AFG @ 5.9


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## The Mint Man (18 December 2007)

Well what a recovery we had today!!! problem is that MQG didn't seem to follow that recovery..... much the same story as tronic72 is telling about AFG really.
If we get a good lead from the US then I think MQG will make a heap up tomorrow


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## nizar (18 December 2007)

In response to the thread title, id say yes.
XJO closed almost +150pts from the lows.


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## chops_a_must (18 December 2007)

nizar said:


> In response to the thread title, id say yes.
> XJO closed almost +150pts from the lows.




It's going to leave another big hammer on the charts. A lot of gaps to be filled as well. Have gone flat.


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## ROE (18 December 2007)

I bought 15K worth of WWA 
Market down turn doesn't bother me..I got some on of my watch list and if it sell
at reasonable price I load it up


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## Kauri (18 December 2007)

Any bets on what the ubiquitous popular-media *economists *will put todays _?? relief ??_ rally down to?
My money is on the oft trotted out "_bargain hunters_"...nice change from the as often used."_profit takers_" that explains why the market dips in the first place..    
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## M34N (18 December 2007)

Kauri said:


> Any bets on what the ubiquitous popular-media *economists *will put todays _?? relief ??_ rally down to?
> My money is on the oft trotted out "_bargain hunters_"...nice change from the as often used."_profit takers_" that explains why the market dips in the first place..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



LOL

More like "_speculators hoping the US will rebound for a Christmas rally_"?


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## Kauri (18 December 2007)

M34N said:


> LOL
> 
> More like "_speculators hoping the US will rebound for a Christmas rally_"?



 My wife tells me a *well respected morning TV show host/economist* this morning said that he had been calling this correction for the past 4 weeks.. well done Big Fella...   you've got the early morning housewives eating out of your beknighted palm...
might just be time to get the long strides back from the dry-cleaners   
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## M34N (18 December 2007)

Kauri said:


> My wife tells me a *well respected morning TV show host/economist* this morning said that he had been calling this correction for the past 4 weeks.. well done Big Fella...   you've got the early morning housewives eating out of your beknighted palm...
> might just be time to get the long strides back from the dry-cleaners
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



Well, going by that 4 week knowledge, if you bought something like BHP at $39.60 4 weeks ago and held on to last Thursday when it hit $44.00 or so, that's an immediate 10% you would of missed out. I'm sure there's many other stocks out there with the same movement.

You know when the "well respected" commentators start to suggest the world is going to end and Satan himself will appear in the flesh to take all your shares, a crash is just around the corner  

It hardly took a genius to see this coming, did it? Happens every few months, has been for the last few years, and every time we hit either a new record or rebound some 5-10% above those lows and retest the old record. Repeat cycle every few months, especially with this "sub prime" dribble which comes up every few hours it seems now.


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

Kauri said:


> My wife tells me a *well respected morning TV show host/economist* this morning said that he had been calling this correction for the past 4 weeks.. well done Big Fella...   you've got the early morning housewives eating out of your beknighted palm...
> might just be time to get the long strides back from the dry-cleaners
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



 On another thread a little while ago someone posted "Even a broken clock is right twice a day".


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## TaxEvader (18 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Our entire Economy thanks to the Liberal party is based on a hole in the ground and the World knows it, I think Australia has the potential to be spanked harder than any other Western economy if there is a world wide slowdown or recession.




Our economy would be a hole if labor had been in power.


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## Buster (18 December 2007)

Yep,

I got in first thing this morning, although I could have picked my stock of choice up a little cheaper than I did, it's an absolute bargain at this price..

Have to agree though, things don't look particularly heathy in general, I for one wouldn't be buying if I were playing the short term game..

Regards,

Buster


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## nick2fish (18 December 2007)

M34N said:


> Well, going by that 4 week knowledge, if you bought something like BHP at $39.60 4 weeks ago and held on to last Thursday when it hit $44.00 or so, that's an immediate 10% you would of missed out. I'm sure there's many other stocks out there with the same movement.
> 
> You know when the "well respected" commentators start to suggest the world is going to end and Satan himself will appear in the flesh to take all your shares, a crash is just around the corner
> 
> It hardly took a genius to see this coming, did it? Happens every few months, has been for the last few years, and every time we hit either a new record or rebound some 5-10% above those lows and retest the old record. Repeat cycle every few months, especially with this "sub prime" dribble which comes up every few hours it seems now.




I agree cept this is not normal. A crash is a crash and this is not its like a muddled hanging or Chinese water torture...it just doses not want to end !!! I brought in today like an idiot but you know to answer the thread question there are a lot of people that will still run when the Dow fails (they may even have their software configured that way) So keep money in pocket till Sat's Dow result. If good buy. This I believe will be a change of the economic guard and we all will realize that we are living in a global economy not necessarily reliant on the biggest economy in the world


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## hangseng (18 December 2007)

I obtained AAR, again.


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## numbercruncher (18 December 2007)

This might give the markets something to cheer about  ?





> The European Central Bank said on Monday it would lend banks as much in two-week funds as they are willing to pay for in its weekly refinancing auction.
> 
> The ECB said in a statement it was scrapping the usual upper limit on how much it lends to banks in Tuesday's weekly refinancing operation to ensure overnight interbank lending rates stayed close to its target of 4 percent.
> 
> All banks with enough collateral, and which submit bids of at least 4.21 percent, will receive the funding they ask for, the ECB said.




http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/18/business/18ecb.php#end_main


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## ithatheekret (19 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> The US slowdown hasn't been the ignition for the sell off it is the credit crises.
> 
> Once people start to become more risk adverse, they then start to relook at other things.
> 
> ...





The buy back in was more like short covering and institutional buyers who will automatically buy on a decent decline , especially on Blue chips . 

The Dow futures are up and above f/v , but I won't count my chickens until they hatch , those late sell offs worry me and theirs is a definite sell into strength market . To be frank I have thought ours was too due to lack of infrastructure etc. to cope with the supply flows and have had 6340 as my sellers market point for awhile until the indexes are reshuffled .


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## inenigma (30 November 2008)

Has anyone had a looksee at this lately ??  Apparently no debt.........  Does anyone else think that Base metals have not yet bottomed out ????


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## schumie21 (5 December 2008)

Just of interest does any body BUY strictly to a mechanical system or is everyone on gut/fundamentals.


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## skyQuake (5 December 2008)

schumie21 said:


> Just of interest does any body BUY strictly to a mechanical system or is everyone on gut/fundamentals.




wow none of those 3 seem like good entry criteria


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## schumie21 (5 December 2008)

skyquake,what method of entry do u use.   im about to start a mechanical system,it seems quite logical..


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## Out Too Soon (8 December 2008)

Everyones selling (or sold out) so yes, I'm buying.  I use a combo of F/A, gut instinct & basic T/A based on what I hope to be common sense.


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## Lucky_Country (8 December 2008)

Buy low sell high !

"I get greedy when everyone else is fearfull and get fearfull when everyone else is getting greedy" quote Mr Buffett.

I buy based on past price history and on management and project potential demand supply etc etc !

Learnt the hard way tho


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## skyQuake (8 December 2008)

schumie21 said:


> skyquake,what method of entry do u use.   im about to start a mechanical system,it seems quite logical..




Gut = fear/greed; You become emotionally attached to your position and will not be manage it effectively. Professionals will squeeze you out of your positon, or you'll get spanked holding onto something (eg. see FMG thread)

Fundamentals... Well, tell that to the 'long term investors' who got in a year ago... Kinda works in rational markets, but i'd bet 50% of the time markets are irrational...

Nothing wrong with mechanical systems, just that its not an entry criteria. Your setups define how you enter into a trade.

My entry criteria is mostly Technicals, counter-technicals and VSA.


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