# The stock market to stagnate for years



## It's Snake Pliskin (17 October 2005)

There is no power left in the market and I see a prolonged sideways market for some months. Years?


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## tech/a (18 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

hahahahaha


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## RichKid (18 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> There is no power left in the market and I see a prolonged sideways market for some months. Years?




Any particular reason for the view Snake? Mine is that it's still in a technical uptrend and economic conditions are still good, not as good as could be but far from poor. One of the main reasons for my view fundamentally is the resources boom, Australia is lucky that way, we just need to get our infrastructure and skilled labour supply right.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (18 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

Thanks for your interest in this thread Richkid. I feel it is important to discuss the market in general without too much focus on individual stocks, but, rather the many sectors and how they influence the market.  Tech thinks it is funny as you'll determine from his extensively complicated and long post above, but I feel it is a topic that needs discussion. Egos and pride aside I hope all join in. There are some threads talking about crashes etc. but a long term disscusion on the general health of the market should be ongoing.

In answer to your question my view is that the market has some high P/E sectors that offer no value, although the last week or so has helped that. There is a large number of inexperienced investors in the market that has grown from the advent of online trading and people next door making lots of money. America is a basket case and unfortunately influences our market too much. Inflation is the worry and has affected the market only when oil prices decreased. The ASX is influenced by some big listed companies such as BHP and Woodside etc. The next report for BHP is not going to be very exciting due to the hurricane affecting their oil output. This alone could act as a brake on the momentum.

Your analysis and opinions would be most appreciated.

Yours Sincerely
Snake Pliskin


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## Julia (18 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

Snake:

You've clearly thought about your suggestion from several angles, and good on you for that.

My own feeling is that there will be considerable volatility for a couple of months, after which - barring any catastrophic world event - we will gradually settle  into further uptrends though Iwould expect stock selection is going to be more important than, say, a year ago when even Milly's Mudpacks would have made money.

Julia


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## RichKid (18 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Thanks for your interest in this thread Richkid. I feel it is important to discuss the market in general without too much focus on individual stocks, but, rather the many sectors and how they influence the market.  Tech thinks it is funny as you'll determine from his extensively complicated and long post above, but I feel it is a topic that needs discussion. Egos and pride aside I hope all join in. There are some threads talking about crashes etc. but a long term disscusion on the general health of the market should be ongoing.
> ............
> Your analysis and opinions would be most appreciated.
> 
> ...




Here's my 2c for what it's worth (not much since I'm no good at predicting, just guessing). My view is technical, based mainly on my basic knowledge of TA (see earlier post). 

This thread appears to be a look at long term fundamentals with a view that things will go sideways or slowly lower. Note that there are  threads on the XJO and XAO from a mainly TA viewpoint. There are also existing threads on short term market outlooks and some longer term general threads on bear markets. 

We need to define which market we are looking at. For me its mainly the XJO index. So what makes up the XJO or even the AllOrd (XAO)? A handful of stocks do.  So if you can predict where those stocks will head and how you'll know where the big indices will end up.


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## tech/a (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

Snake.

I still see your topic as a tounge in cheek swipe at the Housing thread.

Anyway.
Whether it be Housing or Stocks the sooner people get themselves in a position that hiccups even big hiccups have little effect on their investments,the more comfortable and more successful they will be in 
Wealth Creation and Management.

When opportunities can be taken without stress from the participant there is no need to predict/theoriese or hypothosise.

*When people can say * --who cares if Property decreases 20% in 4 yrs and who Cares if the Stock Market corrects 50% in the next 4 yrs--then they have FULL control of their financial futures.
It can be done and some are doing it.

*This should be everyones aim!*


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## RichKid (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Snake.
> 
> I still see your topic as a tounge in cheek swipe at the Housing thread.
> 
> ...




On topic please Tech, you know the rules and there are plenty of threads on other topics already. Thanks for your cooperation.


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## tech/a (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> On topic please Tech, you know the rules and there are plenty of threads on other topics already. Thanks for your cooperation.





Thought it was---a general comment on both as forms of investment.


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## RichKid (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Thought it was---a general comment on both as forms of investment.




Well, this isn't a comparison or general observation about forms of investment from what I see, the first post and the thread title are the best descriptors here. It will be impossible to keep these forums tidy if we take too liberal an interpretation of each topic.


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## RLN (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

1. Low interest rates. Bullish. Until they get toward 9%.
2. High consumer confidence. Bullish.
3. Low unemployment. Bullish.
4. Yield on most stocks are still more favourable than t-bills. Bullish.

These are the 4 core reasons why the market still looks ok for the foreseable future.

5. China/India/Pakistan effect. Bullish. These are the countries that are creating the new industrial revolution.
6. Stable government & currency. Bullish.
7. Baby boomers are well positioned and will retain their investments for income generation. Bullish.


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## tech/a (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

Ok Rich.

I like RLN's reply.


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## Happy (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

Bird flu. Birdish.

(Thought it might sound funny, but you never know how it is gonna go)


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## mit (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

Agree with RLN that we are currently in an uptrend (even after another nasty day today) and the correction isn't large enough yet to say that this has changed and while there are always sound reasons that the market should change, the market and the economy runs on emotions. People have been calling the current bull run as being over-bought since July 2003.

Even on a more fundamental basis things might reach a softer landing.

The current dynamic is that resource prices are rising because China is building things that America buys on credit from countries such as China. This is a situation that could still continue for sometime but is hardly a robust position as the American consumer could decide to save rather than spend or decide he can't afford to borrow any more. However, if domestic demand in places like China and India increase then this may make the world economy a little more robust. Japan is supposed to be finally in a recovery as well but I am not sure whether this is because of domestic matters or because they are also exporting to the US.

MIT


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## mime (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

The majority of the big stocks are still profitable and have pretty good PE ratios.  Alot has been wiped off my portfoilo recently. Hopfully there will be a turn around soon :|


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## Smurf1976 (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				Happy said:
			
		

> Bird flu. Birdish.
> 
> (Thought it might sound funny, but you never know how it is gonna go)



So the market could really fly then...


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## The Estimator (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> So the market could really fly then...



Red Bullish?


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## Julia (19 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				Happy said:
			
		

> Bird flu. Birdish.
> 
> (Thought it might sound funny, but you never know how it is gonna go)




You thought it might sound funny?   It does.  I laughed.

Julia


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Snake.
> 
> I still see your topic as a tounge in cheek swipe at the Housing thread.
> 
> ...




Huh.....


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## tech/a (20 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Huh.....





Your kidding--you dont understand???


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## sam76 (20 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				The Estimator said:
			
		

> Red Bullish?




That one was clever!


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## happytrader (20 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

I thought this was a very interesting view and very comforting for buy and hold investors. Trouble is it lacks realism.
As far as market trends on the xao go, I thought we were way beyond stage 1 and well into stage 2 and going into stage 3 - sideways. Stagnation never. All stages have money making possibilities for those who will take appropriate action.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## michael_selway (20 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*

Today the Dow went up like 100+ points but ALL Ords fell?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 October 2005)

*Re: The Stockmarket to stagnate for years*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Your kidding--you dont understand???




Sorry, I couldn't see any message in what you wrote. It may have been a good UN speech but it lost me. Would you care to elaborate a bit more, but maybe in another thread. You could start a wealth creation thread. I would like to contribute to it - I'm serious Tech!


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