# Potential Trend Reversals



## dj_420 (19 February 2007)

just wondering what others think of this thread. at ASF we have a breakout thread, potential breakout thread, what about creating a potential trend reversal thread?

as everyone knows not all stocks are going up all the time. my point is that we can pool knowledge regarding downtrending/uptrending stocks and pick indicators of trend reversal.

for eg, zinc stocks have come right off the boil last couple months, we saw CBH hit bottom arounr 55 cents, KZL around 4.95, ZFX around 15.60. spot price of zinc has come off the highs and i believe many zinc stocks were oversold.

we had several indicators of the selling trend reversing and there are some easy gains 10% plus over 2-3 days for most zinc stocks when trend reversed and stocks bounced.

obviously many people dont like the idea of stocks downtrending or shorting a stock, but as people learn more and more it opens the door for potentially many different trading opportunities.

this thread would not have to be limited to downtrends either, if a stock has been uptrending and there are also signals of trend reversal should be posted here, as people may have the opportunity to short the stock.


just wondering what peoples opinions on this are?


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## Sean K (19 February 2007)

Might have legs.

Is it too similar to the breakout thread?

Maybe it should be called ORDINARY breakout alerts??    

I agree that it could be educational, in that it will give people a better idea about what a trend reversal is compared to an OUTSTANDING breakout, or breakdown...


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## Magdoran (19 February 2007)

Just wondering why this is in the derivative area.  Shouldn’t this be in the stock discussion area with the “outstanding breakout alerts” kind of thread?

Mag


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## Joe Blow (19 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Just wondering why this is in the derivative area.  Shouldn’t this be in the stock discussion area with the “outstanding breakout alerts” kind of thread?
> 
> Mag




Indeed it should. Thread moved.


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## sydneysider (19 February 2007)

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Indeed it should. Thread moved.




Good idea Joe. I am seeing a substantial amount of detrioration in the u sector. Stocks with very recent bullish quarterlies taken to the woodshed i.e. AEE & ERN. Technicals such as stochastics and OBV turning down and chart patterns denoting distribution and lower lows.


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## alankew (19 February 2007)

Can we have a translation service for the foreigners(Me-what does taken to the woolshed mean-I have a good idea but just need clarification)


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## nioka (19 February 2007)

I don't know if this one is a potential trend reversal or a continuation of a downward trend but it is one which for no fundamental reason has reached a low that it has not been at for some time. MAE Any comments?


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## chris1983 (19 February 2007)

sydneysider said:
			
		

> Good idea Joe. I am seeing a substantial amount of detrioration in the u sector. Stocks with very recent bullish quarterlies taken to the woodshed i.e. AEE & ERN. Technicals such as stochastics and OBV turning down and chart patterns denoting distribution and lower lows.




ERN hit bottom on the 8th..touching 50 cents..and has since moved into an upward trend now sitting at 60.  I mean they are only sitting 10 cents off their high.  A couple of months back they were touching 40 cents.  I dont see any lower lows.  Few sellers today but they all got soaked up pretty well and it only went as low as 58..closing even at 60.

Buyer depth has dried up though.  I think they are sitting on the sidelines waiting to move in.


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## nioka (19 February 2007)

alankew said:
			
		

> Can we have a translation service for the foreigners(Me-what does taken to the woolshed mean-I have a good idea but just need clarification)



Usually someone was taken to the woolshed to be given a good "dusting over".


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## barney (20 February 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> Usually someone was taken to the woolshed to be given a good "dusting over".




Actually Sydneysider said the "Woodshed" ............ Is there any differentiation between the type of sheds that we can be "dusted over" in ??    .............  I think I would prefer the woolshed ..... not too keen on being dusted by the axe!! .............. My apologies ... silly post ... its the "John Cleese" coming out in me .................

Actually I think the idea of a "trend reversal" thread would possibly be a great "teaching" thread .............. perhaps Magdoran and other more learned chaps/ladies could drop in again and shed some light on any techniques for identifying them .........


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## dodgers (21 February 2007)

how about the asx? looks to be near a short-term high (wave 5 of 5 of 3?)

anyone thinking of shorting soon?


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## moses (5 July 2007)

RAU, up 23% and oppies up 63% today. But its the volume this morning that makes it look interesting.


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## moses (5 July 2007)

PRE is showing support at 0.031 and an above average pile of larger orders waiting in the queue. The Neilson SMA chart shows this as an increase in both the quantity and quality of buy orders left at the end of day (relative to sell orders), suggesting that some "smarter" buyers who understand the stock may be hoping to pick up this stock at a good price before it takes off.


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## moses (11 July 2007)

EMP is showing some good signs of a trend reversal.

1) its up 13% this morning

2) the Neilson SMA chart indicates a steadily growing buying pressure in quality and volume.


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## jtb (11 July 2007)

Hi moses,

Any chance you can apply your technical prowess to the descending triangle apparent on AAR?

It looks to be on its way to 0.09c ish but I don't think it will get there unless something goes pear shaped.

INL looks like a classic but I don't think I'm brave enough

Appreciate any input


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## moses (11 July 2007)

Hi jtb,

AAR isn't showing signs of anything interesting; the most positive thing I could say from the SMA chart is that both the SP and buying quality is holding flat while the number of buyers v sellers fall (blue line), so perhaps when the punters return the SP will rise.

However INL is quite a different story. If you believe the Neilson SMA chart is a useful indicator (as I do) then INL is showing great signs of a potential trend reversal. Thanks for pointing it out; I've just bought back in.


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## dj_420 (11 July 2007)

im just waiting for when URA trend reverses, will happen when they ann that they have secured rozna etc.

im waiting on sidelines for that day. until then the trend is still down.


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## CanOz (11 July 2007)

Certainly the possibility of some absorbtion volume happening in INL, defineatly on the watchlist now.

Cheers,


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## moses (11 July 2007)

dj_420 said:


> im just waiting for when URA trend reverses, will happen when they ann that they have secured rozna etc.




Me too. Just for the hell of it, here is the SMA chart. Its had a few false starts before so I don't read anything special in it today...but...who knows, we may be in for a bottom picking session now. Trouble with URA is that when it takes off it goes like a rocket and its always too late to get on board.


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## new_trader1984 (11 July 2007)

Hi Moses,

Would you be able to share your thoughts on gdn thanks?

I use the phoenix ai with the 3 different levels for the demand and smart money and the 2 days 9-10th july smart money was entering during the day. Also back around 28th june to 3rd july smart money was entering at 35-44 cents. 

Does your chart suggest the same happened, the last 2 days has been a bit different on the charts but thats because of a seller with almost 2 million shares keeps moving their amount between different price levels which is affecting the demand but doesnt sell any shares. 

Would appreciate your thoughts on gdn.

Thanks.

Also when you use the smart money charts do you use any other indicators to help with deciding on a stock to buy?


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## nizar (11 July 2007)

CanOz said:


> Certainly the possibility of some absorbtion volume happening in INL, defineatly on the watchlist now.
> 
> Cheers,




Looks to me like a dog and a half.
Solid downtrend.


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## moses (11 July 2007)

Not sure that my thoughts are all that useful, but anyway, here we go with the chart. 

It could be a great bottom pick...BUT...personally I'd want to see the black line stay up there for a while, rather like the INL chart on the previous page, before I believed it as anything other than a transient spike. Yes, I certainly do use other indicators before buying, especially volume and price; I use them first and then check the SMA chart, and then search ASF for comment and then if any doubts remain I consult the candles. At this point with GDN I would simply say that the SMA chart suggests we should watch the stock closely for other signs of a reversal.




new_trader1984 said:


> Hi Moses,
> 
> Would you be able to share your thoughts on gdn thanks?
> 
> ...


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## moses (12 July 2007)

Tech stock BLG is an old favourite of mine that fell by the wayside after hitting 90 odd cents a few months ago, and has been falling miserably ever since. However today I bought back in suspecting BLG had finally bottomed out and was about to climb back, hopefully with a bounce. 

Sure enough, tonight's SMA chart gives some weight to my suspicions. This is definitely a potential bottom pick trend reversal. But time will tell of course, DYOR and check out the BLG thread for more info.


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## moses (13 July 2007)

Today's engulfing white candle confirms yesterday's hammer, and thus provides additional support for a BLG reversal.


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## Ken (18 July 2007)

Trend  Reversals.  

I have an interest in PSA, as I believe the downward trend has finished. 

I first spotted the brakes being put on PSA when they traded their highest ever volume and the price was up 15% in a day. 

Its been going sideways for some time, but it's looking at breaking $1.60

I hold as I think we have hit bottom in a favoured sector which is the oil and gas sector.


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## Joe Blow (18 July 2007)

Ken said:


> I have an interest in PSA, as I believe the downward trend has finished.




Why? More detail needed.



Ken said:


> I first spotted the brakes being put on PSA when they traded their highest ever volume and the price was up 15% in a day.




This was due to an announcement. PSA was subsequently sold off again and has been trading sideways ever since.



Ken said:


> Its been going sideways for some time, but it's looking at breaking $1.60
> 
> I hold as I think we have hit bottom in a favoured sector which is the oil and gas sector.




Ken why do you think PSA has hit bottom? It would be nice if you could identify some support levels, volume analysis or provide some other details/analysis to support your view. Perhaps you could discuss their prospects in terms of fundamentals. Saying a stock has hit bottom is one thing, presenting a convincing case for it is another.


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## coinemas (20 July 2007)

Petsec Energy - PSA

Broker Tolhurst issued BUY recommedation with target $ 2.90

IMHO yesterday's ann proved that PSA is moving forward fundamentally compared to its March  result. 

SP has recently hit bottom and has been trending upwards in the last couple of weeks. 



------------------------
extract from tolhurst:

Valuation and Recommendation

We value Petsec shares at $2.90 based on a sum of parts approach. Our
discounted cash flow analysis of the GoM natural gas assets yields $2.18 a
share, while the GoM oil assets and China assets are valued at $0.39 and
$0.33 respectively (unit based valuation approach). Our valuation attributes
no value to the Moonshine project given the very early stages of exploration
work there – we consider potential upside in case of exploration success a
free option with Petsec shares.
At current levels the shares trade at a 50% discount to our valuation and we
are therefore recommending to BUY Petsec shares for both the short term
(up to 12 months) and long term (over 12 months) investors.
Over the past year Petsec’s shares suffered decline driven in part by some
operational disappointments and in part by general sentiment towards the
sector. We believe there is no fundamental reason to justify the magnitude of
this price decline and see current share price levels as an outstanding
opportunity to gain exposure to a profitable company with a significant
growth pipeline.




DYOR - as always


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## moses (23 August 2007)

CGM has shot up today 50-67% on news and will probably be rerated. See the CGM thread for more info, but in brief the stock seems way undervalued on fundamentals and today's ann should reverse the trend.


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## moses (27 August 2007)

GDN is looking more like it may be in the early stages of a trend reversal.

GDN is up around 40-70% on volume this morning with no news. Thats gotta be significant?

But note the last spike in the SMA chart a few weeks ago, discussed earlier in this thread. Perhaps this rush of smart buyers picked up all they wanted in the recent correction? This would imply that they knew something and just got really lucky with the correction. If so, this means that with news (or even just a rumour of news) the SP could rocket back up to where it was before (or higher) and be a multi-bagger.

Whatever, its gotta be worth watching. DYOR.

I'm in!


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## moses (28 August 2007)

INL seems to be a favourite stock on ASF, its only problem being that its SP keeps going down. I'm posting this up (again) as a potential reversal because the Neilson SMA chart has given positive signals about INL for some time, and I suspect that it was only the general drop across the market over the last month that stalled INL's reversal back in July. Note that the blue line is now showing positive pressure, and remember that when the blue line rises above the black line (smart buying pressure) that there is usually a corresponding spike in price.

Today's 12-12.5c looks like a real buying opportunity. DYOR.


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## moses (1 November 2007)

Very early to call, but MTN is firing this afternoon (along with everyone else) and has just cracked $3 again. Has MTN bottomed? Is it time for the U market to turn around?


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## eMark (1 November 2007)

moses said:


> Very early to call, but MTN is firing this afternoon (along with everyone else) and has just cracked $3 again. Has MTN bottomed? Is it time for the U market to turn around?




Mate, I'd love the answer to that question for PDN and AGS


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## doogie_goes_off (24 April 2008)

MCR and CSE - anyone care to make them potential breakout alerts with proper analysis rather than my "testing a breakout point" type analysis of 3.60and 0.32 respectively


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## doogie_goes_off (25 August 2008)

CVN probably should turn for real, supply @ 43c today seemed to be getting eaten up quickly, Im looking at a 54c target, it has been cheap buying in recent weeks. We may need two annoucements to see this target as there is a 'shoulder' at 50c although weaker than that at 55c, any push through 55c could see a breakout. I'm very happy to hold at the moment.


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## frugal.rock (24 September 2019)

Gday Al,
Look what I dug up! Was the last post really 11years ago?

Anyhoo, I figure I will play it safe and post here as I have been more miss than hit lately....
Fell off the horse, proper dusting off in the woolshed etc, definitely not a roll in the hay, profits seem to be like a needle in the haystack. Haha 

But, I have been looking at MLL , Mali Lithium ( & Gold) as a potential trend reversal candidate.
With recent lithium mine approval and higher revenues from their gold assets together with interest from MinMetals (Chinese lithium batteries experience)  and a potential ramp up of gold production to capitalise on current Au prices, this might be of interest at around $ 0.078 per share.
Please do your own research.
I hold, riding a loss. 
PS; the wife and kids are getting hungry as time's are tough...
Have you been there?


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