# Not sure what to invest in?



## Gundini (12 November 2008)

I have a reasonable amount of super, and have recently finalized my SMSF. I am ready to invest!

Just not sure what to invest in? 

Troubling times, and I cannot be certain how it's going to pan out. I haven't lived these times, and I am 46!

I'm thinking Gold bullion/ Inverse ETF's / Cashed up minors / Currencies.

Do you know I can trade CFD's with my SMSF super? Do you believe that?

No wonder the planet is going down the gurgler!


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## prawn_86 (12 November 2008)

Please note that no-one can give financial advice unless they are a licenced professional.


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## Gundini (13 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Please note that no-one can give financial advice unless they are a licenced professional.




I am definately not asking for advise, and I certainly don't want it from a licenced professional, lol, I can throw my own darts.

More just a general discussion on what ASFers are thinking! 

I am thinking "how am I going to navigate this Global debarkle, and come out the other end relatively unscathed". 

Personally, I think China will be less effected in this slowdown than the Americans want us to believe. While China's economy will slow, they will still grow, just at a slower pace. There are many more markets out there than the USA. And while China continues to grow, our commodities will do well.

China posts another record trade surplus despite global slowdown. Oct 13, 2008. http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5geJpujdLyIEpEz8B-rduC9YXKO5Q

11 Nov 2008 ... China's economy has slowed in each quarter for over a year, but was still growing at a relatively brisk pace of 9pc http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-exports-resilient-but-slowdown-expected.html

I wish somebody had suggested that they were switching all their cash from AUD into USD when our dollar was 98 cents! This is not advise, it is a thought that may warrent further research. Sharing ideas that's all.


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## sinner (13 November 2008)

As someone mentioned just now in another thread, anything less than 9pct for China is recession.


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## kenny (13 November 2008)

Good questions to wrestle with Gundini. Good luck with the darts, mate! 

I agree with sinner. IMHO it's more important to look at the rate of change (decline) in the growth numbers of China than the headline rate. Lots of analysts out there with tow the well worn line of "Look, even 9% is much more than USA or Oz. China will pull us through."

As this whole deleveraging crisis trickles into the real economy and spending stalls even more, we'll see a few more "bargains".

Gold was always meant to be the beneficiary of volatility and global unrest but has it really performed nearly as well as its supporters have trumpeted when times were hard for gold?

Cheers,

Kenny


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## Glen48 (13 November 2008)

8% and below is bad news for China, a mate who lives on the Sunshine Coast in a $76k unit he paid 96K for early this year tells me there are ships at anchor because of mooring fee's and lack of work, maybe turn a few in to Floating Hotels for the Single mothers with money?
Poker machine takings are going up this year and they expect a boost when the $10b is sent out.


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## njc.corp (13 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> I have a reasonable amount of super, and have recently finalized my SMSF. I am ready to invest!
> 
> Just not sure what to invest in?
> 
> ...





u got all the answers in front of u-


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## Glen48 (13 November 2008)

The good news this is on You tube the bad news is in the story:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h890oeAkr8&ref=patrick.net


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## sutti (13 November 2008)

Mate, not trying to be rude here. If you have no idea what to invest in I would be going to pay someone else to do it for you. We're in tough times, no one knows whats going to happen on the markets tomorrow, let alone next week or next month. We could see bad time stay for a while or we could recover. Who knows? At least get the services of someone who has some experience in the markets to give you a push in the right (hopefully) direction.



> "how am I going to navigate this Global debarkle, and come out the other end* relatively unscathed*"




Personally, I think it is way to hard to navigate. I'm in cash, and waiting until I see some upside. The question is when will the upside come and will it play tricks with me. Obviously I'm not a trader so others opinions would be different. 

Good luck and all the best!


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## cutz (13 November 2008)

Have you considered a low cost index fund, chunking in over a period of months, it’s not really my cup of tea but I would be interested to hear what other members think of this method of investing.


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## Glen48 (13 November 2008)

from DR.
Maybe this will give you some thing to ponder?
Poor Mountain House, California. 

The town is underwater, reports the International Herald Tribune. Nine out of ten houses are worth less than their mortgages. There are some 1,856 mortgaged properties in the zip code area of Mountain House. Only 209 of them have any positive equity. 

How the screw turns! Is this the "ownership society" promoted by the Bush Administration? Now, people own less than ever! 

There are said to be almost 8 million houses with negative equity in the United States. 

Of course, people own a lot less in stocks than they did a few months ago too. Worldwide, stocks have shucked off about $28 trillion worth of value. 

Poor... rich... middle class - everyone has been hit. The marginal homeowner has already been tossed out onto the street. And now comes word that an extraordinary resort in Montana, designed for the super-rich, has gone bust. 

"Where did the money go?" asked Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, speaking of Tim and Edna Blixseth's swanky resort in the Gallatin mountains. Of course, he might have been referring to almost anything - the Russian stock market, the oil market, the mining industry, Wall Street... everywhere you look... from trailer parks to Park Avenue... poof!... the money's disappeared. 

The oil price is signaling more doom and gloom ahead too. It slipped below $60 yesterday... 

... And now, in the art market, "prices finally plunge," reports the Daily Telegraph. An auction in New York of Impressionists and modern art was supposed to bring in $800 million. Instead, it barely fetched half that much - only $470 million by Friday night. Some lots didn't sell at all. Only 60% of the artworks sold... at prices most about 30% below estimates. 

Let's take a quick look at how these losses are transformed from financial problems into economic problems. 

"The domino effect," is how today's Independent describes it. 

On the cover is the photo of a "news agent," someone who runs a little shop selling magazines, newspapers, snacks, and so forth. 

"Hit by falling sales, he decided not to repair his window. Thousands of other people did likewise. So Chemix, a chemical company in Stockport that supplies the building trade, went out of business - with 60 people losing their jobs. These are the sort of tiny decisions that lay behind the loss of 5,000 jobs yesterday. And this is why experts predict 2,000,000 people [in England] will be unemployed by Christmas." 

In the United States, the figure is 10 million. 

So great is America's economic squeeze that people can't even afford a cup of coffee. Starbucks reports that its profits are off 97%. Not much left. 

And, yesterday, General Motors shares fell to a new low of $2.79. The last time you could have bought the automaker so cheaply was in 1937. Back then, it would have been a good investment. The U.S. auto industry was on the way up. Now, Detroit is going down - hard. In the town itself, you can buy mansions for pennies. Empty warehouses are available almost for free. But who wants them? 

Investors fear GM may run out of cash within weeks and be forced into bankruptcy. Nancy Pelosi says a special lame duck session of Congress may be called to get emergency cash to Detroit. 

Of course, that's they way the feds do business - always trying to prop up failures... trying to block progress... trying to delay the process of correction. In short, they're trying to stop "nature's delight" - change. 

Meanwhile, the Dow fell another 176 points. The panic is gone, but the retreat continues. The Dow stood at 8,694 at the close of business yesterday. 

At these prices, many investment pros are ready to get back in. Stocks are a bargain, they say. You get more value for money than you got in years, they point out. "Both my money and my mouth say the same thing," adds Warren Buffett: "Buy equities." 

Take a look at Starbucks, for example. It used to be such a growth company that shares traded at 50 times earnings. Now you can get them for 12 times earnings. But with collapsing earnings... the share price could fall a lot more. 

The stock market bulls aren't necessarily wrong. But we announced a "Trade of the Decade" in 2000 - sell stocks, buy gold. The decade has a few more months to run, so we'll stick with it. At the beginning of this decade you could get about 40 ounces of gold for a unit of the Dow stocks. Now, you barely get 12. If you'd done the trade and stuck with it, you'd be up about 200%. 

Besides, it looks to us as though the Dow is going to drop below 5,000 before this is over. Dividend yields have risen to almost 4%. When the dividend yield reaches 6%... and you can trade one ounce of gold for the entire Dow... call us. 

In the meantime, we still think it's a good idea to take advantage of the low price of gold. 

*** A few months ago, we wondered what the surprise would be. Mr. Market always has some tricks up his sleeve. What must happen always happens, but never as you expect. 

So when stocks started to slide and people began talking about a 'soft landing for global growth,' we wondered where the surprise would be. 

Now we know. The downturn has been much more violent than almost anyone imagined. And it's beginning to look as though the long-term damage could be much greater too.


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## awg (13 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> I have a reasonable amount of super, and have recently finalized my SMSF. I am ready to invest!
> 
> Just not sure what to invest in?
> 
> ...






I am similar to yourself, except my SMSF is in the pension phase.

so I can trade tax free.

am in the process of having a CFD account opened, after practising

so I can go short!

on most things!!

IMO recessionary forces are very strong, still further to go down, so going long is bad risk..tell me about a company with improving prospects?

others may disagree. I am talking SHORT TERM 

Capital preservation is what it is about

when my term deposits expire, I will need to find a home.

cause I am in pension phase, 100% franked dividends are very favorable, but the 15% of my portfolio in shares has been taking a thrashing.

could put an argument forward for some forms of Hybrid Securities, as some of them are paying high rates.

Unless u understand them,  I would take brokers advice on individual hybrids, need to be careful.

This is not advice!!!  only opinion, to stimulate discussion

i love to hear other opinions, gives one plenty to consider.

gold has been very volatile, I have been stopped out of NCM several times (at Breakeven)


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## sutti (13 November 2008)

> others may disagree. I am talking SHORT TERM
> 
> Capital preservation is what it is about




Currently I think you are going to have a very difficult time preserving your capital. As I said to the former, best of luck!!!!!!!!!



> IMO recessionary forces are very strong, *still further to go down*, so going long is bad risk



..

If you believe there is still further to go down, why would you want to be placing your money in the market now?



> tell me about a company with improving prospects?




There are many companies that still have very good prospects. A thing called emotion comes into play though. Look around, do your research, you should be able to spot them. 

As I said, I hold cash, and will do until I see the 'field start to clear'. Best of luck to traders out there. I think most of the hair on my body would have been pulled out by now if I was you! 

NB. My two posts here might sound very negative, but I think it is very important that market participants understand that common stock investment is extremely risky. The stock market is meant to be one of the safest asset classes, hasn't the past 12 or so months taught people it is probably the opposite?


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## Largesse (13 November 2008)

can you direct me to where you find these "cashed up minors"?

i tried all the local girls schools already.....


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## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

Largesse said:


> can you direct me to where you find these "cashed up minors"?
> 
> i tried all the local girls schools already.....




 http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...s.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=on&asxCode=TRY

dyor

i hold therefore any link i provide to questions asked can be taken as a totally biased and rampant service

avaniceday


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## Gundini (13 November 2008)

sinner said:


> As someone mentioned just now in another thread, anything less than 9pct for China is recession.




True, but it's still growth, and prehaps they may become more diverse in their target markets now that their biggest consumer has moths in their wallets. Emerging markets have a lot of comsumers too, who haven't yet learnt to live off easy credit. They may take up some of the slack.



njc.corp said:


> u got all the answers in front of u-




Yes, but they do lack excitement. I suppose capital preservation can take the fun out of the game. It is a game right? Surely? Albeit a serious one.



sutti said:


> Mate, not trying to be rude here. If you have no idea what to invest in I would be going to pay someone else to do it for you. We're in tough times, no one knows whats going to happen on the markets tomorrow, let alone next week or next month. We could see bad time stay for a while or we could recover. Who knows? At least get the services of someone who has some experience in the markets to give you a push in the right (hopefully) direction.
> 
> Personally, I think it is way to hard to navigate. I'm in cash, and waiting until I see some upside. The question is when will the upside come and will it play tricks with me. Obviously I'm not a trader so others opinions would be different.
> 
> Good luck and all the best!




Your not being rude mate, all good! I am also in cash, have been since Oct 2007, which as it has panned out was a lucky call. But, I missed the boat when the AUD tanked to the USD  Could have picked up near 30%  So I have a lot to learn, but it won't be by paying someone else to manage my money. 



Largesse said:


> can you direct me to where you find these "cashed up minors"?
> 
> i tried all the local girls schools already.....




Lol, sorry, I meant "Cashed up Miners"... 

Just a futher note: BHP at $25, Banks absolutely trashed, some gains wiped out to 2003 prices!

It's scary out there!


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## sutti (13 November 2008)

Oh sorry mate, thought you were a 'newbie'! Go ahead and see what you can do then!


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## Julia (13 November 2008)

awg said:


> > Capital preservation is what it is about
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## Gundini (13 November 2008)

Julia said:


> awg said:
> 
> 
> > Yes, many people are wrestling with this dilemma now given interest rates are predicted to fall below 4%.
> ...


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## Mofra (14 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> Just not sure what to invest in?



A suggestion (not advice): education. Doesn't even have to be a formal qualification. Learning is never wasted.


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## Gundini (14 November 2008)

Mofra said:


> A suggestion (not advice): education. Doesn't even have to be a formal qualification. Learning is never wasted.




Excellent suggestion Mofra! Thinking outside the square, I like that.

I couldn't think of a better place to start than this forum. 

A wealth of diverse knowledge here.


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## communique (14 November 2008)

Mofra said:


> A suggestion (not advice): education. Doesn't even have to be a formal qualification. Learning is never wasted.




Good idea, there is a massive shortage of geriatric specialists.  This is a growing industry and as long as your patients remember to go to you it would be a very successful career.  I'm serious there is an extreme shortage.  What other career short falls are there that one can be assured of a good paying job?  Definitely not financial advisor.


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## Julia (14 November 2008)

No doubt geriatrics is a high demand area.   However, let's not overlook the fact that to be a geriatrician would require the basic six years medical school then  several further years of training in that specialty.


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## kenny (15 November 2008)

Gundini,

Do you think those responsible for the credit/deleveraging crisis will ever be punished or just get bailed out by those affected?


<Off topic rant - sorry>

Despite the trend towards an ageing population; there is probably a good reason why there is a shortage of geriatric specialists.

Why limit your practice to one select demographic of the market? Lots of other specialities are needed regardless of age.

Ever been to a nursing home or known someone on a pension? There are many elderly who are desperately unable to afford private geriatric care. If as a specialist; you intend purely to work in the public sector then you'll be working very hard for a lot less than someone able to do some private work. Kudos to them for their great contribution to the community but certainly the Public award rate doesn't reward them anywhere near enough.

regards,

Kenny


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## Gundini (18 November 2008)

kenny said:


> Gundini,
> 
> Do you think those responsible for the credit/deleveraging crisis will ever be punished or just get bailed out by those affected?
> 
> ...




That depends... Who are those responsible? 

Individual or Global Government policy? Democracy? Free markets, Capitalism? 

Or should we just generalise and call it "The System"

I am not certain who I would charge with the irresponsibility. 

As individuals, we tend to punish ourselves by not being financially prudent enough to realise that high leverage and high gearing only works when the value of your investments are trending upwards mid/long term. 

Those who are truely responsible for this easy credit generally put a bandaid fix in place and leave it in the hands of future generations to figure out!

Just like a pyramid or ponzi scam... Someone has to eventually pay. 

Will it be us? I'm thinking more likely our kids.


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## joeyr46 (21 November 2008)

Julia said:


> awg said:
> 
> 
> > I agree and exited the market in January to this end.
> ...


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