# AUDJPY



## Kauri

another one to watch.. will probably follow the Nikkeis lead..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

added some more on the break.. Nikkei is faltering..
Cheers
...........Kauri

  P.S  Thanks Joe B


----------



## Kauri

may put up a bit of a fight here???
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I had 9320 area as next floor area , what  are yours pointing the laser at  Kauri  ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I had 9320 area as next floor area , what are yours pointing the laser at Kauri ?





Hi ithatheekret
Mid 92's would be nice, but I'll gratefully take whatever they want to give me..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Thanks ...... is 9320 mentioned anywhere as a support / res area in the fx projections with any analysts ?


----------



## ithatheekret

I only asked , as if it fails its a sell in my calcs. at present .


----------



## ithatheekret

nah , ratios are falling , think you got it mate 92s .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I only asked , as if it fails its a sell in my calcs. at present .



Hi ithatheekret
 Sorry to take so long.. having a quick nap...
all I can see anywhere is the lows (daily) from late november..
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I have nanny naps too mate 

1st proj got out is 9258-9252 , as far as I got told to eat or elses stuff .


----------



## tayser

I'm only sticking to my 5-10 pips per day, but holy moly - anyone watching a tick chart? 

[insert jaw dropping smiley here]


----------



## Kauri

a convenient spot to pull up for a breather...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

not convinced that W4 is complete.. despite the oversized flaggy thing... will wait and see if she consolidates here a tad first before looking for another run.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> not convinced that W4 is complete.. despite the oversized flaggy thing... will wait and see if she consolidates here a tad first before looking for another run..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




 All up to housing and Uncle Ben now.. to carry on where Merrill left off
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Kauri

this time???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and short again here
Cheers
.........Kauri

P.S.  IG have mantained their 4 point spread on the audjpy and 2 point spread on the audusd but have lifted the minimum GSL distance from 12 bps on the skippy to 50bps... and 80 bps on the jpy swap.


----------



## tayser

AUD/JPY = pip machine this week.

can I have a "weee"?


----------



## Kauri

tayser said:


> AUD/JPY = pip machine this week.
> 
> can I have a "weee"?




 yep.. both running OK,,so far..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Managed to get my skippy stop to B/E... but with the 80bps on the audjpy it is a touch difficult..
a bunch of stops under 87 for the skippy... if she can get there..
apparently (read anecdotal) an Aussie bank was/is a big buyer of skippy at these prices.. speculation that it may be for an AUD+ M/A type activity for a client??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

closed out for 1r loss...   
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

once again,similar to my last AUDUSD trade, went against my guiding vindicators and paid up...1R loss...  :bonk:

 am still beary on this pair, will wait for the vindicators to reset O/S and look for ops...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

9160's would be nice, initially... even in the midst of gloom there are opportunities aplenty..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

a minor W4??/ seems to be a bit of defense of 50, don't know if a strike rolls off there, there is one due friday at 9160 though...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> a minor W4??/ seems to be a bit of defense of 50, don't know if a strike rolls off there, there is one due friday at 9160 though...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Intermediate W4 coming up, or just a forlorn early defense of Fridays 9160 strike??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

vindicators say up....am riding wid it as it should only be a W4!!!

 (long term I'm actually looking for 86-87... sshhhhh )  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

word has it ( *rumour!!* ) that an Asian CB (wonder which one) is active buying the JPY crosses.. giving them a bit of support, but so far is just providing a small rally for the stranded longs to sell into.. the PKO will be in the share market too I guess???
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

How about the disappearing growth , they've been recording . I use to spell the BoJ's head name wrong all the time by dropping the "i" , I think I had it right , or we'd have seen BoJ rates move with that growth . 

I might send him a copy of Great Expectations although I know he prefers fiction ..................


----------



## Kauri

closed out short term portion of trade, looking for W4 and also vindicators to reset??.. a lot of buying of the yen crosses out of Tokyo at the moment.. the European and NorAm markets may have something to say about that though...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> word has it ( *rumour!!* ) that an Asian CB (wonder which one) is active buying the JPY crosses.. giving them a bit of support, but so far is just providing a small rally for the stranded longs to sell into.. the PKO will be in the share market too I guess???
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




BoJ got the vac out already , is this a 100 push up session ahead    , that sort of cardiovascular work out that tears the main muscle .


Want to start an insto list of 120. Yen loans ?  We'd better upgrade our memory , too much paper would be needed ...... save the trees .

Second thoughts pass , the worlds got enough horror stories today .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> BoJ got the vac out already , is this a 100 push up session ahead  , that sort of cardiovascular work out that tears the main muscle .
> 
> 
> Want to start an insto list of 120. Yen loans ? We'd better upgrade our memory , too much paper would be needed ...... save the trees .
> 
> Second thoughts pass , the worlds got enough horror stories today .




   ... and watch out for the PKO in the last hour, if they wade in the crosses will travel with the Nikkei... I thunk..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

106.6ish ( currently 106.3ish ) for my liking means some are thinking the equity falls are in overshoot . Forex taking the lead in the crosses , tugging at the equity leashes . 

I'll play the game with them , mind you there's no barleys today , the financials would all be better off in their own index . Somewhere in the Amazons for the next few years .

I think they've ( FX moves ) got it wrong , the $150B Bush benefit won't even cover our market losses , and the US is to come , the S&P 500 looks like it desperately wants to get a hug from 1200 . We've hit every trap door on the way down through the market stages . Banks , of course we will be tapped on the shoulder to balance the sheet .

......... and it's embarrassing when Chinese banks are better capitalized than the western models , except for one of course , it's going nuddy or a dacking at least for BoC .


----------



## Kauri

a bit tight but W4 may be done... in again looking for a 5..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

making life difficult are IG... all thier GSL's are spread way out.. the spread..4 pips for audjpy.. is the same but the GSL is now 80..
 on the audusd with a 2 pip spread the GSL is normally 12... now it's 50. 
 Just means I have to babysit each trade when opened until I can get the GSL down to where I want it...   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## tayser

ouch - are they making you set GSLs or that's part of you trading plan?


----------



## Kauri

tayser said:


> ouch - are they making you set GSLs or that's part of you trading plan?




Part of the way I trade...lets me sleep at times...

if it didna look so impulsive I would be looking for a set-up, ahhh ..ok
Cheers
.......kauri


----------



## Kauri

Entered ignoring, as always, fundements,... purely on techs.. after all the carry trade is dead...isn't it???   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Entered ignoring, as always, fundements,... purely on techs.. after all the carry trade is dead...isn't it???
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




.........yes...........
  I wonder what the PKO have left in the pension funds?? Decision time approaching..
Cheering
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

have thrown a pyramid into the mix..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> have thrown a pyramid into the mix..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



getting close to wave equality... but methinks the yen cross will drive it if it can break 105... a powerfull mass of stops lurking just under... (and the stock market and emerging subprime story of course)..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> getting close to wave equality... but methinks the yen cross will drive it if it can break 105... a powerfull mass of stops lurking just under... (and the stock market and emerging subprime story of course)..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




over and out... too close to turning at wave equality ...and also vindicators rolled... and also bed-time..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

watching... and waiting... the carry trades seem to be driven only by the stock markets now... and who knows what they have planned... not a lot of liquidity around currently either sose I guess there are a few on the sidelines...
Cheersa
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I was on the side today , just got off the blower with Telstra , revved up enough now to get aggressive .  


Someones holding the herd up by the looks 

The dollar swap looks restrained too .


----------



## ithatheekret

They say don't fight the Fed , the same would have to apply for the MZM team .... I mean the deflation team .. ohhh the BoJ , I get them confused all the time 

Bought the AUD/JPY and the USD/JPY just to be contrarian  

I like to see 93.28 breached and 106.65 respectively . Might need a steamroller to do it .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> They say don't fight the Fed , the same would have to apply for the MZM team .... I mean the deflation team .. ohhh the BoJ , I get them confused all the time
> 
> Bought the AUD/JPY and the USD/JPY just to be contrarian
> 
> I like to see 93.28 breached and 106.65 respectively . Might need a steamroller to do it .




 USD/JPY ..Defence expected ahead of large 105.50 and 105.00 option barriers (not due till early Feb from memory but still worth a fight  ) .Huge stops cited below both levels.

Moves higher  derailed with the Nikkei retreating and a number of *rumors* of large write-downs at a large European bank (said to be a week away from anns) and *unsubstantiated talk* of difficulties in passing  US economic stimulus package. USD/JPY fell to 106.21 and EUR/JPY 155.25 with a number of players including US investment banks and some Japanese players scrambling to sell. Liquidity seems to be an on-going issue with many recent moves  the one-way variety and given recent wild swings. 

Beware of runaway tractors going downhill.. especially in S.A.   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> *rumors* of large write-downs at a large European bank (said to be a week away from anns)
> 
> Beware of runaway tractors going downhill.. especially in S.A.
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




*SocGen says Fraud to Have Negative Effect of E4.9bn* (Reuters..)
(and Over DowJones.) According to the report, the net result for the French bank will be a profit of EUR600-800 mln. In the following weeks, the bank will look to raise an additional EUR5.5 bln in capital

 another day..another rumour comes good.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

ordinarily (if there is ever anything remotely ordinary in FX) I would be looking and getting set for a 5th wave break... buuuut *something* tells me to wait..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus

Crystal Ball working well, Gold break out?


----------



## Kauri

in on a fluttering flag for a quickie 5th.... 
and why does the post attachment screen come up every time I tap the spacebar???   :alcohol: mmmm


Cheers
..............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

stop to B/E pre U.S data.. sit and wait to see where the Dow goes  

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

There ya's go , see what you can do with a tractor . RSI and Ichi doing fine , besides I'm on the Japanese housewives side


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> There ya's go , see what you can do with a tractor . RSI and Ichi doing fine , besides I'm on the Japanese housewives side




Japanese housewives...now I've just about had enough plonk to relate the story of when.... ooops.. :remybussi
 and runaway tractors.. a very smart man at TNO penned one of the best stories I have heard about his tractor in S.A.  
ah... in vino bulko...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

His wife didn't think he was smart though , the clothes line never survived and was cremated ......... so I'm told . 

Am I seeing absorbtion in those swaps at the moment ?

AUD/J 93.4ish USD/J 106.4ish .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> His wife didn't think he was smart though , the clothes line never survived and was cremated ......... so I'm told .
> 
> *Am I seeing absorbtion in those swaps at the moment ?*
> 
> AUD/J 93.4ish USD/J 106.4ish .




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9654


----------



## Kauri

stop upped a tad... vino lowered a touch..
Chaars
..........kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9654
> *Am I seeing absorbtion in those swaps at the moment ?*




Yes , mate I was cynically referring to your budgies chatter .

Sorry if I stuffed that up , my bad ............  ....... if you catch the drift .


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> stop upped a tad... vino lowered a touch..
> Chaars
> ..........kauri





vindicators looking like they are ready to roll... soon... methunks..
will keep an eye on her from here..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

stop up again... will let her run where-ever from here... time for a granny nap.. :sleeping: 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus

Didn't think you guys every slept


----------



## Kauri

IFocus said:


> Didn't think you guys every slept




sleep is just a habit... it's just hard to break.. like..  

Potential res looks good, I'm hoping to wake up to see her in the little red box...   maybe...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Lots of nanny naps , some artificially induced . 

Especially when someone starts talking red wine , good one Kauri , planted a seed and I polished a bottle of Penny Hill fortified shiraz .

I've got an Ichimoko cloud in my head today and my teeth were stained a nice claret colour this morning . I was wondering why the kids were looking at me strangely ......... 

Looks like we'll have a couple of hours of tight band trading on those two J swaps , nanny nap would fit in nicely , but everytime the Asian bourses finish lunch something happens .

I have the Au swap just above cloud and nearly ready to cross . 94.78 currently


----------



## GreatPig

Kauri said:


> I'm hoping to wake up to see her in the little red box



I'm hoping to see it higher than that.

Not because I'm trading it, but because I want to change some cash for our upcoming holiday to Japan. 

It was around 97 when I first started planning, then touched 100, so seeing it back around 90-91 wasn't much fun.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## ithatheekret

94.56 test coming up ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Hope ...... vos ist los ?

Fundies say yeah , techs look like trend intact , 94.56 only area I see that could flatten it out a bit today , but I've only got one eye open at present .

If they could just get it a little lower , I would be happified and fortified today enough to buy that dip .

First and second ping at 94.63 watching intently , no such thing as a triple bottom for my likings .


----------



## ithatheekret

I think it's good fun .......... 94.605 /61 /62 little late but some schwing .

and it's all Kauris fault .  

Now where will the next dip end ....... ?


----------



## ithatheekret

94.55 blink 94.56 bounce it now has to take out the days high to get a star .


----------



## ithatheekret

It get's the star .


----------



## Kauri

I have enough pyramids on to make my chart look like the Giza valley.. but at the moment my vinocators are suggesting a rollover??? note though .. like me.. my vinocators can plateau and yet the good times roll onwards and upwards.. until the wbbs..gd
G jj..
...........  .


----------



## Kauri

dubious cou t .  . but on t e  ailies is slight y wor ies me..
new. atter es  eeded for  eyboard  
...


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> I have enough pyramids on to make my chart look like the Giza valley.. but at the moment my vinocators are suggesting a rollover??? note though .. like me.. my vinocators can plateau and yet the good times roll onwards and upwards.. until the wbbs..gd
> G jj..
> ...........  .




The trend is your friend , higher lows and a test of inter support sent bullish signals for moi . The rest will be what the equities do in London and Europe , before NY rolls their dice . 7/11 are winners . House pays .

Crossing from underneath .


----------



## ithatheekret

What's next then ? I'm getting bored watching this thing rise .......

It's going to need some ooomf to push 95.33 quickly , so may as well set trailers there , tighten em up  ???


----------



## Kauri

Generale feeling is that BB won't be dropping his rates next time around.. so those (importers) wanting whatever currency vs yen are paying up now as they believe it won't be this cheep again for a while... I thunk... 
 On the cable... supported by the Brewers.. but now knocked by a "Swiss bank" predicting 125bps easing this year by UK...
Cheep cheep
...............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

thats me out for now... a fluttery seems to be in early stages.. possibly. Don't expect much myself until the US share markets open in 2-3 hours to give it some direction... market is very light currently... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus

You guys must get bored making all those pips, impressive guys really impressive


----------



## ithatheekret

AUD/U 41-45% ( .8787 ) starting something watch

AUD/J 51% and rising ( made the whole range down , retracing ??? )

USD/J 21-22% (starting to rise slowly )

back of env. A/J 94.22 to breach or sell fail ????


----------



## ithatheekret

Looking for a divergence in RSI now , RSI has failed to make low . Saw 94.22 breached and retracing looking for dip bottom or close to . Have 94.11ish as support for the run if it continues . tight stops , haven't got full trend rev. yet 69% . 94.478 shows the curve change complete , looking for next Tenk cross from underneath at present .


----------



## Kauri

didn't quite extend to the full fluttery indicated... before the breeze dropped... but then again more than one of my open FX trades all stumbled around the same time... the stock markets which are mirroring risk sentiment/outlook, seem to be pretty much the sole driver... I thunk...
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I was just getting through scouring over the USD/JPY .

Much would depend on the Fedspeak next week and the data that comes out of course . I think Wednesday is their meeting .

I suppose to a greater extent the markets sentiment towards equities will be the catalyst , the reaction depending on whether they like what they hear or not .

On my chart though at present , the swap has closed just above the Ichi Tenk line which is around 106.4ish to 106.5ish . Chart wise that says bullish to me , but that's just the chart and some indicators .

The last lot of risk aversion will comeabout and the carry trade will shove the swaps in the elevators . If the news is bad , bad, baaad , aahhhuhuhuum , expect to see the Yen turn into Atom Ant , and Skippy will put up enough candles to look like a trailing comet .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I was just getting through scouring over the USD/JPY .
> 
> Much would depend on the Fedspeak next week and the data that comes out of course . I think Wednesday is their meeting .
> 
> I suppose to a greater extent the markets sentiment towards equities will be the catalyst , the reaction depending on whether they like what they hear or not .
> 
> On my chart though at present , the swap has closed just above the Ichi Tenk line which is around 106.4ish to 106.5ish . Chart wise that says bullish to me , but that's just the chart and some indicators .
> 
> The last lot of risk aversion will comeabout and the carry trade will shove the swaps in the elevators . If the news is bad , bad, baaad , aahhhuhuhuum , expect to see the Yen turn into Atom Ant , and Skippy will put up enough candles to look like a trailing comet .




couldn't agree more... If the Fed cuts rates and the US job number 
bounces back from the lousy non-farm payroll release in December, the AUD should be a on a plus. If on the other hand the Fed decision disappoints the markets and the US job report raises recession fears it could be a very rough week for the AUD/--- crosses.
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

nice little coily thing forming... not much liquid in it though... most punters on the sidelines waiting for the BB 0.25% present??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yeah  , I 'm on the edges of my seat waiting to see what the last GDP number ( 4.9%) turns into . I've seen a plethora of guesstimates , I'm more inclined to go along with somewhere around 1.1-1.2% for the quarter .

The last time the Fed opened its mouth the USD lost 1.5% , I wouldn't be surprised to see Ben come out gagged by a roll of hundred mile an hour tape .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Yeah , I 'm on the edges of my seat waiting to see what the last GDP number ( 4.9%) turns into . I've seen a plethora of guesstimates , I'm more inclined to go along with somewhere around 1.1-1.2% for the quarter .
> 
> The last time the Fed opened its mouth the USD lost 1.5% , I wouldn't be surprised to see Ben come out gagged by a roll of hundred mile an hour tape .




1.2 does it for me   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

.25% ouch that would be sell off material in my books , I think the market would be all geared up for a .50% . This is going to be an exciting week Kauri . But if Big Ben comes out with .75% again , woohoo , he could run for President .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> .25% ouch that would be sell off material in my books , I think the market would be all geared up for a .50% . This is going to be an exciting week Kauri . But if Big Ben comes out with .75% again , woohoo , he could run for President .




I've had a quiet word with Uncle Ben and told him I'll be sending the Perth Powerlifters club  :axt: over to see him if he goes any more than a quarter..     ..seriously..

Deluded
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Hey mate , you watching these Asian markets rollover . Is this a semaphore of the sentiment in regards to their consensus on the cut . They look to be saying " if .25bps is coming we're leavin' " , is this their guesstimate ? 

Pre-emptive threats ?

Or is this just plain old standover tactics over the Fed. ?


One lesson has been learnt though , don't let Ben varnish your floorboards , he'll paint himself into a corner . So far we've seen them give back 1% of GDP already . Has me wondering how much loading is built into the packages .
Rather spooky outlook going ahead in regards to 3 G growth , I'm waiting for the mega spin , but keep hearing about SocGen , Fortis and ING and in plague proportions .

Smells like a .........  look at this baaaad and not our baaaaaaaaad .


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> nice little coily thing forming... not much liquid in it though... most punters on the sidelines waiting for the BB 0.25% present??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri





nice little dangly thing dropping out of the coily thing...

Cheers 
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Hey mate , you watching these Asian markets rollover . Is this a semaphore of the sentiment in regards to their consensus on the cut . They look to be saying " if .25bps is coming we're leavin' " , is this their guesstimate ?
> 
> Pre-emptive threats ?
> 
> Or is this just plain old standover tactics over the Fed. ?
> 
> 
> One lesson has been learnt though , don't let Ben varnish your floorboards , he'll paint himself into a corner . So far we've seen them give back 1% of GDP already . Has me wondering how much loading is built into the packages .
> Rather spooky outlook going ahead in regards to 3 G growth , I'm waiting for the mega spin , but keep hearing about SocGen , Fortis and ING and in plague proportions .
> 
> Smells like a ......... look at this baaaad and not our baaaaaaaaad .




I'm not sure   just asked my Budgies what they think.. referred me to thier big cousin..      (apparently he just had a run in with a helicopter..)
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

and Tenk about to cross from underneath around 93.48/950ish , below cloud though . good brawl coming up , might hit the springs a few times ...........

If so , we could see the Tenk cross from above briefly after a flatline Kijun 

parachutes ready ...........


----------



## ithatheekret

Cwaaaar .........


----------



## ithatheekret

Oh chit , it sort of looks like that 13320 spot on the Dow at the moment ..........

Better stock up on Minties folks , we'll be handing lots out , the sooner this thing hits the wall the better , or Skippies gonna have a sore bum .


----------



## ithatheekret

Schwing , and I thought today would be boring . Skippy playing the tune too , but coming over the top , must be reverb ............ little peaks .

Skippy looks like it's shovelling down weetbix , Yen mimmicking Atom Ant .

Skippy needs to hold above 8783 to have a reversal party , but it's trying , someone have a position to shed today  ?


A/J entering HongKong harbour now , might lose it in the soup , Skip just got above cloud ..........

Yen probably treading water waiting for BoJ , I mean surf rescue


----------



## IFocus

Wow nice move down


----------



## Kauri

may turn into an extended 5th... or may correct a tad here??? Not much liquidity so far so difficult to get a feel of it.. for me.
Big pips and tight tops.. (stops I mean  )
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Crikey that 93. bounce to 93.30 was a beaut , there's the brown champagne paid for .

They're checking Skippies weetbix right now , hovering around 8782/3 hammer time ???? She's got a hard head 

............. and how many weetbix did she do this morning .

Yen police are back


----------



## IFocus

YM falling like a brick on light volume looks like....


----------



## ithatheekret

It's hammer time


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm absolutely stoked , didn't touch the Yen except for A/J the Euro bolted took out my 146.89 limit in a couple of blinks , missed the reverse to busy grabbing a cold one to celebrate . Skippy , well yeefknhaaa , there's the new boat engine . Now I can tear the transom off 

PS... later guys I'm closed and off to the pub .


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> may turn into an extended 5th... or may correct a tad here??? Not much liquidity so far so difficult to get a feel of it.. for me.
> Big pips and tight tops.. (stops I mean  )
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 and the worm has turned... right on q..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

maybe another long night waiting for to see if this one sets up.. or not
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

pulled on my shorts... time for a walk I thunk...  
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

would be crossing from underneath inside the cloud  . But ignore me , I just bought it at 9421 :


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> would be crossing from underneath inside the cloud . But ignore me , I just bought it at 9421 :





Keep a weather eye out for 1930GMT..     one way or tother..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

and 9415 , dutch courage , metals hitting Skippy , but I'm game this week now , 8815 for Skip again too .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> and 9415 , dutch courage , metals hitting Skippy , but I'm game this week now , 8815 for Skip again too .




 Sallie plurry mae...    ..
Cheering
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I have all those limit orders for Skip too , holynelly POG better rally tonight , a birdie tells me that SLM is in eeeek territory and another US fiscal accident has ambulances being called . London stocks , mining too , getting hit , Xtstrata after years of failed hunting in takeovers is being preyed on ....... sweet justice .

Heard anything about risk controllers and firing squads ? Hang on it would be guillotine ............


----------



## ithatheekret

Got out of that wobble , cathos 2 market 1 :

 and it get's better ........ kids go back to school tomorrow


----------



## Kauri

closed out half of my positions to leave the rest risk-free on original stop... too much bouncing before the data setting off alarums to let me nap!!   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm looking at it now  


Eurogal still partying , Yen police showed up , A typical .........

One of the US bourses is up , the Yen says so ..........


----------



## Kauri

stop to B/E on remaining posies to lock in profit..time for nanny nap..  :  

Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

she's still got 94435 to smash into yet ...........


----------



## Kauri

and over and out...
 now to work out why DT reckons I'm not priveleged???  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

They've crashed ?


I had a chap from Finotec send me a test platform ,  desperate to keep FX away from commodities , totally seperate , so no margin stuff arounds .

Do you think I could get it to fire up ?


What the f n h are they doing on Cyprus ?

Is it permanently GT time there ?


At present I've got them mixed in with another CFD mix , and it's a pain to have to adjust moves for , the Soc Gen chart took 12 minutes to load and asked me for the correct code I don't know how many times !!! 08-19 panic of mine I mentioned was the result .....


----------



## ithatheekret

Bells and whistles somethings happened in my backroom .

My A/J's are gone , you know what that means ........


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips jumped the fence , Euro , well I've got another lovely green dot so it must mean new high today for me . At least I can still add up half pissed 

Hatricks .


----------



## ithatheekret

You running yet ?

Try rebooting , the dips are moving .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> You running yet ?
> 
> Try rebooting , the dips are moving .




  Finally did a back-up re-install and voila... the reboot with my gentle 12 and 1/2's didn't seem to help..   
  now to see what's been happening..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Is your platform US based , or one of the Virgin Island and Cyprus satellite crews ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Is your platform US based , or one of the Virgin Island and Cyprus satellite crews ?




Platform stayed up... charting package (independant of broker) carked it..


----------



## ithatheekret

Nasty , want to borrow my clifford axe ?


----------



## Kauri

charting and trading back at 100%, and I'm at my usual 60%..

  Vindicators out of sync.. suggesting the *a* may actually be a *2*  , or even something else.. also the 5wave decline doesn't ride well with me... will wait and let it develop..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Almost forgot about this one.. a pyramid dropping in from the Gaza has brought her back to the front... so far..

Cheers
............kauri


----------



## disarray

the AUD is looking pretty weak. the 93 range has some serious support so if it falls through there its a very long drop.


----------



## Kauri

Taken a long posi on AUDJPY... PestPac has just tabled 3 Uradashis worth 70 odd bill. and there are more players bringing some out soon, it may help underpin her... or not.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Taken a long posi on AUDJPY... PestPac has just tabled 3 Uradashis worth 70 odd bill. and there are more players bringing some out soon, it may help underpin her... or not..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  and slipped the stop up to B/E .... just in case our northern cousins play silly baggers like they did yesterday...   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

looking interesting...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> looking interesting...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



 a tri. became a ledge.. but she still went as expected..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Seems like AUDJPY is at a critical level on the Dailies.

Nice place for Buy with position reverse stops actually.


----------



## BentRod

seems like some strong resistance around that trendline.

All other JPY crossed getting creamed and this one just hangs in there?

looks like it has broken through again- see if I can get stopped out for a third time

Short from 89.37


----------



## BentRod

5th time lucky.


----------



## BentRod

fhsdkjfhlkhsdfks

Stopped out of this one at breakeven this morning.:

Is proving quite hard to get set for a longer term position.


----------



## disarray

what time frame do you mean by "longer term position"?


----------



## Kauri

As of yesterday, net currency longs held by these players fell precipitously from the week prior, and dealers suggest more sales to come if judging by the price action today and anecdotal evidence of sales from this bloc. Medium to longer-term players look to be paring down positions, and more shorter-term players look to be preferring to trade JPY from the long side, a departure from past experience.
     As of yesterday, net long USD/JPY positions were unchanged at 72.1% over the week but EUR/JPY was down to 67.1% from 83.9%. GBP/JPY longs fell to 70.3% from 83.3%, *AUD/JPY to 78.3% from 92.4%* and NZD/JPY to 87.3% from 90.3%. The relative lack of downside in NZD/JPY is attributed to NZD/JPY having already fallen quite a bit and much of the negative news on NZ already discounted. The market is also more illiquid than other JPY pairs, and some players seem content still to ride out the storm. *More AUD/JPY position paring is eyed however* and sentiment towards EUR and GBP continue to drop. 

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> what time frame do you mean by "longer term position"?




Good question.
I don't really know, I guess I'm thinking months but then again, I would never close out a winning position.

If you have a look on the Dailies from 97-2000, that is the sort of move I want to capture. 

Work out the return on that with a 20 pip stop

If the carry unwinds then maybe there is potential for this type of move?

The hard part is getting a position that sticks.


----------



## Kauri

a touch slow adding here... trying to do too much at once... was ideally looking to get on on the break of the recent low...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Nice one Kauri.


----------



## BentRod

Counter trend for a quickie.


----------



## BentRod

stop to BE.


----------



## BentRod

I've left this one open after that reversal in US Stocks last night.

Will see how this goes tonight.
Must admit, I'm tempted to close it out since it is fluffing around a bit....seems to have formed a head and shoulder type formation on 5min chart.


----------



## Kauri

Just an idle thought... not a call...   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## disarray

yeah looks to be building a base at 81. the chart says sideways then down again to me but its been a dramatic fall so i've setup for a long bounce to 83ish and stacks on shorts on a break down through 81.

i read from a poster here (can't remember the name) about the 4 hour cycles he sees in the forex market and i'm noticing a similar thing, so maybe base building until around 2pm before a move. 

i love this game


----------



## Kauri

may not yet form a coily... or a ledge... or a double bottom.... butt.. worriesome though that these apparent desc. coilies I find often become a reversal potteen... I'm keeping the stop wide and taking a punt on a continuation,,,  I tink..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> may not yet form a coily... or a ledge... or a double bottom.... butt.. worriesome though that these apparent desc. coilies I find often become a reversal potteen... I'm keeping the stop wide and taking a punt on a continuation,,, I tink..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  at least an opportunity to bring the stop in closer
......Cheers
..............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> at least an opportunity to bring the stop in closer
> ......Cheers
> ..............Kauri




 and then some..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and then some..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




  That will do for me... I smell tom cat p..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## dhukka

Just exchanged some JPY into AUD myself,  beautiful to watch, been a long time coming.


----------



## BentRod

What a move!

Nice trade Kauri


----------



## Kauri

butt,,

which way???

 

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> butt,,
> 
> which way???
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




  thataway... I guess..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Kauri...Has your broker jacked the spread right up on this pair?

Oanda has it at 15 when usually it is 4


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> Kauri...Has your broker jacked the spread right up on this pair?
> 
> Oanda has it at 15 when usually it is 4





i use IG and Alpari for trading... the charts I post and draw on are Metaquotes demo...

IG is the top grab...
Alpari is the second..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Thanks mate.
Might look into another account.

These spreads are a joke.


----------



## Kauri

carving off a steak or two from the stampeding bulls as they thunder by on their way to the abbatoir has been fun... will wait now for the NorAm buffalos to start heading for the corral for the next meal... possibly...

:viking:

  Cheers
..........Kauri

  P.S..  Spot EUR/JPY extends new 2.5 year lows sub 135.00 and implied vols also through the roof - *1 month atmf testing the 30.0 level* but nothing actually trading.


----------



## Kauri

a US bank ( apparently there is still one) sold 5 yards ($5bln.) of AUD/JPY overnight as part of an unwind by troubled insurer AIG. The same bank is reportedly touting a move to 55.00 as they see the retail longs not yet flushed.

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Where do you get this stuff Kauri?

www.fxgossip.com?:D

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Kauri

the range is toooo big to tempt me... butt... who nose what may develop down the track

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> Where do you get this stuff Kauri?
> 
> www.fxgossip.com?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




 i invent most of it... and the rest i just make up... mostly.... i tink...   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> who nose what may develop down the track




Popped out nicely.


----------



## Kauri

The collapse of the AUD/JPY yesterday was unprecedented and was *capitulation in the extreme*. The cross fell around 12% from yesterday"s high to low, as stressed hedge funds and terrified Japanese and US investors were forced out. Major support levels melted away in a matter of hours and the volatility in between the selling waves was extreme. The cross fell as low as 63.80 at one stage within sight of the 2002 low around 62.25. A break below that level would target historical lows below 56.00. 
     The AUD/JPY is *extremely oversold on the daily techs while at the same time showing bullish divergence*. On the weekly techs there is no bearish divergence, but the readings are at *ridiculously oversold levels*. All eyes today will be on the Nikkei and other Asian bourses and if they somehow stabilize it should see the AUD/JPY recover or at least stabilize. If equities crash off again it will lead to more AUD/JPY selling even though it is hard to believe there are any longs left to capitulate.

cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

There is a *rumour* making the rounds in Asia that the massive sell off in the AUD/JPY yesterday was started by a bank selling on behalf of a stressed hedge fund. The talk is that the sell order was for between 5 and 8 BLN AUD and was done in a few waves between Tokyo afternoon and late Europe.  

cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ttnt

After yesterday's crash, do you guys know when AUD is heading to? 55-56? another 1000 points?


----------



## Kauri

head-butting res. from a few days back...  

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## white_goodman

big move tonite...


----------



## Kauri

white_goodman said:


> big move tonite...





 big move last night..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

havving a lotta trouble posting.... is it my comp playing silly beggars agin??

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

I'm on that one too with a second bite on break of that channel.


----------



## BentRod

> I'm on that one too with a second bite on break of that channel.




My chart didn't work last time?


----------



## chops_a_must

Kauri said:


> havving a lotta trouble posting.... is it my comp playing silly beggars agin??
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



Not just you. A lot of trouble loading this site last night and still...


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:


> Not just you. A lot of trouble loading this site last night and still...




 I'm still having trouble... Joe is probably on to it...

the fact that yesterday"s huge New York AUD/JPY A$6bn sell order was offset by an A$3bn M&A related buy order out of Japan, slated to be for Macquarie bank.  also noted an E1.5bn buy order; so traders are looking to Asia and not sure what to expect; more selling on the US stock market weak close; or more M&A flows.

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

am fading a little ledge type setup.. if it comes off it may lead to a larger drop... then again it may run up on M+A buying...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> am fading a little ledge type setup.. if it comes off it may lead to a larger drop... then again it may run up on M+A buying...
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri





     time to let her run... I hopes..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

I'm starting to really love this pair.
Even with the current spread handicap.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> time to let her run... I hopes..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




 enuff for one day...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

maybe this time???

 got it on...   i don't trust desc. coilies after a sharp?? move... but who nose..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> maybe this time???
> 
> got it on... i don't trust desc. coilies after a sharp?? move... but who nose..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




and just as well....  

    the kaleidescope... and a forming coily... has me in long, looks like a flag/pennant may be building now..... but fundementally I'm not over-enthused for some reason... however will trade them as they appear regardless...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

I'm in with a stop at 71.00.

I don't like it when these break out so far into the triangle though, Its basically a default breakout then.


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> I'm in with a stop at 71.00.
> 
> I don't like it when these break out so far into the triangle though, Its basically a default breakout then.





 Yep, I'm in on the pennant?? break... also allows me to move my overall stop up closer to the action..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

bit of resistance at 71.75 on the hourlies, be nice to get through there.


----------



## BentRod

What to you use to trim up your screenies mate??


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> What to you use to trim up your screenies mate??





ScreenPrint Platinum... 

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Thanks mate, found a similar one.

Just added a third long on AUDJPY

Stops at BE on other two.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Yep, I'm in on the pennant?? break... also allows me to move my overall stop up closer to the action..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  still plodding along...   

  on the bigger grab a basic E/W move may be unfolding.. or unfolded..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> still plodding along...
> 
> on the bigger grab a basic E/W move may be unfolding.. or unfolded..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




  stop in close... a ledge may be building.... interesting to see which way she breaks if it does build...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

I'm out at 73.20.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> stop in close... a ledge may be building.... interesting to see which way she breaks if it does build...
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri






BentRod said:


> I'm out at 73.20.




   got me too... now to see where we head from here..   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

I never thought I would live to see the day... was considering a short out of the ledge?? with a possible _120 pip move down_, but the RR wasn't there!!... the volatility and range has its drawbacks..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

watching... and waiting.... the coily may not unfold yet... it seems the relief rally in the yen carries may be done.. for now....  and the punters are now focusing on recession fears as opposed to the the financial collapse abyss that has ruled the markets recently...  I thunk...   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

mmmm...  mayhaps bad US Data coming uo??
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> mmmm... mayhaps bad US Data coming uo??
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  what looked like a coily has morphed into a ledge... in this position not really tradeable.. for me anyways...the other crosses seem to be of two minds as well.... so off to the scratcher for an early night..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Just got home and missed all the action......

Wonder if we are going lower for another touch?(1H chart)
Doesn't look good for equities if that's the case.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> what looked like a coily has morphed into a ledge... in this position not really tradeable.. for me anyways...the other crosses seem to be of two minds as well.... so off to the scratcher for an early night..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




found a suitable R/R entry via a little coily... life's hard..   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> life's hard.




Sure is

Triggered at 67.76.

Maybe another one forming now?


----------



## Kauri

The volatility in the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY is beyond extreme. From 
yesterday"s Skippy high to the low reached a few minutes ago the percentage loss was a staggering 8.25%. The AUDJPY seems to be the bellweather for fear currently.... all good if you are on the dark side  ... mind you the thinness of the market makes tight stops suicidal..  I thunk  

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

just for a bit of perspective... the weekly chart of the AUDJPY.... possibly an impulsive move???   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

There is talk that the "capitulation-like" sell off in the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY that started the moment the US market closed was initiated by forced AUD/JPY selling from a stressed hedge fund. It is quite amazing that the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY is approaching levels reached when investor risk-aversion was hitting "terrified" levels on Thursday/Friday when there were real fears of systemic collapse in the global banking sector. The actions by governments in the US and Europe on the weekend and early this week appeared to put that fear on the back burner. 
     Some analysts say that the resumption of the AUD selling against the USD and JPY is due to global recession fears replacing the banking sector Armageddon fears. It is hard to believe that this is the case, as prospects of a global slowdown have been priced into the asset markets for quite some time and was the main reason for the AUD/USD fall from 0.9850 to below 0.8000. It is more likely that the markets are still nervous that the *Lehman Credit Default Swap settlement on Oct 22 *from the auction held last Friday might result in a payment failure and the markets won"t function properly until that day passes. In the meantime hedge funds getting margin calls on equities frozen at Lehman will continue lead to sell offs in assets and currency pairings (such as AUD/JPY) to raise cash to meet margin calls.

  Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Kauri said:


> just for a bit of perspective... the weekly chart of the AUDJPY.... possibly an impulsive move???
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




An unbelievable chart.

Just amazing.


----------



## BentRod

Micro coily on 5m atm


----------



## Kauri

flags aren't my favourite pattern.... butt... who nose???

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> flags aren't my favourite pattern.... butt... who nose???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




one of the reasons I don't like flags... more often than not, for me, they morph into a coil... or ledge... or nothing..   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Yeah looks like a ledge.

I'm out at 65.30, will watch for a break.


----------



## Kauri

may we all live in interesting times
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

my bias is still short... this definitively looks corrective against the impulse... but who nose... until after the event..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

on the larger take it looks like she may be building a base.. although I don't see an easily recognisable base pattern apart from the broad ledge... I _suspect_ we _may_ have seen the lows for this pair, as well as a few other carries I follow.... although ranging in the ledge is still possible/probable for a whiles yet... in udder words *a mild 10c range* between 63 and 73 may be on the trading cards... until it isn't that is. 

cheers
............Kauri


----------



## arco

.

Day trading off the 30M and looking to take a nice profit towards the 2 red lower lines. At that point there may be another opportunity north.

rgds  - arco


----------



## arco

.
Follow up on previous post.
I took 100 pips at the red lines, and shut up shop.

The action eventually headed north as expected, but as I had closed the office for the day I missed out on the reversal and rise to 71.30

arco


----------



## BentRod

Kauri said:


> on the larger take it looks like she may be building a base.. although I don't see an easily recognisable base pattern apart from the broad ledge... I _suspect_ we _may_ have seen the lows for this pair, as well as a few other carries I follow.... although ranging in the ledge is still possible/probable for a whiles yet... in udder words *a mild 10c range* between 63 and 73 may be on the trading cards... until it isn't that is.
> 
> cheers
> ............Kauri




Just having a look at some longer term charts.....

Could be a coily forming on the Dailies.

This could be medium term bottom or a launching pad lower.

If the latter, then the fifties seems like an obvious area in the longer term.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> on the larger take it looks like she may be building a base.. although I don't see an easily recognisable base pattern apart from the broad ledge... I _suspect_ we _may_ have seen the lows for this pair, as well as a few other carries I follow.... although ranging in the ledge is still possible/probable for a whiles yet... in udder words *a mild 10c range* between 63 and 73 may be on the trading cards... until it isn't that is.
> 
> cheers
> ............Kauri




  just quietly trading in the range... despite the lack of liquidity...

  Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> just quietly trading in the range... despite the lack of liquidity...
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  still not too keen on flags... butt... who nose??

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> still not too keen on flags... butt... who nose??
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




  and that will do for now...  Uncle Ben to talk soon...  may change the picture.. somehow..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

The Aussie is holding up well given the selling in other pairs.

Maulson about to speak, I've noticed we usually get a sell off after he talks

I like a short if we pop that TL on the hourlies.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> on the larger take it looks like she may be building a base.. although I don't see an easily recognisable base pattern apart from the broad ledge... I _suspect_ we _may_ have seen the lows for this pair, as well as a few other carries I follow.... although ranging in the ledge is still possible/probable for a whiles yet... in udder words *a mild 10c range* between 63 and 73 may be on the trading cards... until it isn't that is.
> 
> cheers
> ............Kauri




still just quietly trading the range... nott too exciting... butt... profitable..

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> still just quietly trading the range... nott too exciting... butt... profitable..
> 
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




  and another way of looking at things... maybee..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and another way of looking at things... maybee..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




   and short stop down to a tad better than B/E....   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and short stop down to a tad better than B/E....
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri





  and short stop closer in to the action..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and short stop closer in to the action..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




 the little bounce got my stop.... now to see what.. if anytink... develops from here..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> ...POST#201...on the larger take it looks like she may be building a base.. although I don't see an easily recognisable base pattern apart from the broad ledge... I _suspect_ we _may_ have seen the lows for this pair, as well as a few other carries I follow.... although ranging in the ledge is still possible/probable for a whiles yet... in udder words *a mild 10c range* between 63 and 73 may be on the trading cards... until it isn't that is.
> 
> cheers
> ............Kauri




is she going to respect the range.... or nott..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Indie

Kauri said:


> is she going to respect the range.... or nott..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





I suspect she breaks the range. I piled in on Monday and can believe my luck atm. Anyhow, who can say....63 is short term support so we'll see.


----------



## CanOz

We've had virtually no retracement from 71 ish. Got to be something of a pullback at some stage.

CanOz


----------



## Indie

Equities can probably rally today in Aust after Dow lead. So she holds for now.  But I'm not leaving this without my 20%!! So I'll wait for sub 60. Could be a long wait.....but lots unwinding yet to do so I'm confident we get there at some point.


----------



## Indie

Feeling pretty good about this right now. I'm riding this to the bottom. Sub 50 here we come.


----------



## CanOz

Indie said:


> Feeling pretty good about this right now. I'm riding this to the bottom. Sub 50 here we come.




Just keep notching down that trailing stop!


----------



## CanOz

FX already moving ahead of the bell in the US.....hang on folks!

COz


----------



## Indie

G7 have said Japan is on their own re Yen intervention. No way they can change the course of this on their own. As the Japanese economy contracts expect more carries to unwind and Yen to be repatriated. I'm still bullish Yen for now.


----------



## Kauri

decision time... or more meandering???   

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Watch for the retest soon. I always find these little breaks from consolidation retest the break. This could happen at the session changeover.

Worth noting that the DX has reached its target of 88 (87.98). Could this be the pullback?

Cheers,


COz


----------



## Indie

Interesting times. The bounce is gaining some momentum....I'm holding.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> decision time... or more meandering???
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




who nose??  

Cheers
............Kauri

P.S
  There is no talk of BoJ intervention with the moves up in the JPY crosses solely attributed to the stock market surge this afternoon. That said, there are rumors making the rounds that the surge in the Nikkei this afternoon may have been the result of *PKO operations* by the Japanese government via government- controlled investment entities.


----------



## CanOz

I really think there has been some interevention in the US markets, theres a small of some action propping things up a bit, don't ya reckon?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Kauri

I think the Fx is following the equities... surprise surprise...Japan may have started using the  pension funded PKO as well as todays short selling ban to bring about the dramatic turn-around in the Nikkei.... and good ole Aussie is in there buying up supporting the Skip... rumours that the US is getting close to a bank-type bailout of the auto industry... and Iceland has lifted its rates    by 6% to 18% but still... for some odd reason... can't attract investors...   apart from that no other solid rumours that I can think of to start... yet...   
   Fx markets are very thin and normal orders seem to be able to move the market amazing amounts... a large GBPJPY sell apparently went through a couple of hours back, spread between a few banks, and she dropped 2.75... and skittled a few other crosses on the way...  
for mine todays rally is a minor abberation... the mayhem will fire up again soon as Japan,it seems to me, is reluctant to intervene for the Yen... just a lot of jawboning going on..   I thunk...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Indie

Moving shorts ban a week forward is a sign of desperation. But basically agree with you K, fx following equities very closely so if DOW is down tonight Yen should strengthen. Futures forging ahead, not that that's much of a guide nowdays. We shall see.


----------



## BentRod

> This could be medium term bottom or a launching pad lower.
> 
> If the latter, then the fifties seems like an obvious area in the longer term.




Looks like a touch on the bottom of the channel might be a target after all, even with the current strength of the Aussie Today.

I can't imagine the BOJ not intervening sub 50 though. 

After all, a weaker Yen might help to turn equities around and I'm sure AUD and USD central banks wouldn't mind helping out.

Just thoughts, still short here.(bit of pain Today though...:eek3


----------



## Indie

Huge move. I'm staying long.


----------



## BentRod

Your staying long??

Thought you were still short for sub fifty???????



> Feeling pretty good about this right now. I'm riding this to the bottom. Sub 50 here we come.


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> Your staying long??
> 
> Thought you were still short for sub fifty???????




 Love it bent...
anyways... the old range trade I was playing a whiles back seems to have come back into play.. albeit as resistance.. currently...
Japan short selling ban.. rumours of a Japanese rate cut... hints ECB may cut 50.... stock/bond rebalancing for month end... 
Dexia booked a loss of EUR82mn on "excessive" SKK (Slovak) FX positions demonstrates just how exposed Europe is to the meltdown in European EM.

Is the S+P following the Nikkei... or will the Nikkei today follow the S+P..  
chicken or egg?? So long as the coilies keep coiling,who cares... I guess

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Indie

yeah, holding yen that is.


----------



## BentRod

> yeah, holding yen that is.




Ah so still short AUDJPY then.

Good to know someone else is feeling the pain too


----------



## Kauri

big sell orders just shy of 100 on the Yen are stalling the crosses currently in thin markets... if they get taken...   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Indie

No pain yet, just mild concern....over 70 = pain.

Still short Aud/Usd too.


----------



## arco

Morning All

Good entry achieved from lower time-frames.

4H time frame chart shows possible forward Kumo resistance zone in grey.

If this area breaks and the green Chikou passes through the plot then there could be a move higher to test the Kumo. (Circa blue box area)

Between these points we look for bearish rejection. (Kumo is still currently bearish).

rgds - arco


----------



## michael_selway

BentRod said:


> Ah so still short AUDJPY then.
> 
> Good to know someone else is feeling the pain too




Yeah interestign times ahead, although it appears we have been thrugh thsi scenarrio over the last few decade or two







thx

mS


----------



## Kauri

trying out a touch of voodoo..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## arco

arco said:


> Morning All
> 
> Good entry achieved from lower time-frames.
> 
> 4H time frame chart shows possible forward Kumo resistance zone in grey.
> 
> If this area breaks and the green Chikou passes through the plot then there could be a move higher to test the Kumo. (Circa blue box area)
> 
> Between these points we look for bearish rejection. (Kumo is still currently bearish).
> 
> rgds - arco




Update

The grey zone caused some initial resistance as expected - at the 2nd attempt a break through was achieved. Green Chikou is almost through the plot, and Kumo (cloud) base looms ahead - it appears AY will visit this area for sure (blue box). 

Ichi signal has given circa 560 pips from original entry point so far

arco


----------



## arco

arco said:


> Update
> 
> The grey zone caused some initial resistance as expected - at the 2nd attempt a break through was achieved. Green Chikou is almost through the plot, and Kumo (cloud) base looms ahead - *it appears AY will visit this area for sure (blue box). *
> 
> Ichi signal has given circa 560 pips from original entry point so far
> 
> arco




Action entered the Kumo as expected (blue zone). Max take so far circa *800 pips*.

arco


----------



## CanOz

Whooosh, off she goes, where she stops, nobody knows.....one thing i know is she took off without me! Patiently waiting for the retracement now!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## BentRod

Yeah same on AUDUSD and EURJPY  Cannie.

Similar ascending formation on USDJPY, I'm watching that one for signals on where the rest are going.


----------



## flipztacy

Anyone still bearish on the aud/jpy?? anyone still shorting this ?? if so wats how long can the aud/jpy go....i was xpecting more of a sell off today due to larger then expected interest rate cut...


----------



## BentRod

flipztacy said:


> Anyone still bearish on the aud/jpy?? anyone still shorting this ?? if so wats how long can the aud/jpy go....i was xpecting more of a sell off today due to larger then expected interest rate cut...




I'm still short from the 72's

As for how long it can go??

Well it could keep going to 100 for all we know.

Look at the daily chart to see the massive swings in this pair.


----------



## arco

Morning All

Bullish Kumo on the leading edge

73 or even 77 a possibility........

LT Ichi trade still performing................max 1050 so far.

GTA - arco


----------



## CanOz

My Amibroker with Pattern Explorer Ichimoku produced a nice signal yesterday on the same pair Arco. I've been watching it as much as possible, but i only have AB at home.

Nice trade.

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## arco

CanOz

I checked your chart against my 30m and can report no noticible difference

Seems like you've done a good job on coding.

rgds - arco


----------



## Indie

flipztacy said:


> Anyone still bearish on the aud/jpy?? anyone still shorting this ?? if so wats how long can the aud/jpy go....i was xpecting more of a sell off today due to larger then expected interest rate cut...






Equities rebounding hard atm. Lately this seems bullish for AUD. The steady stream of bad news will eventually overwhelm any equities rally so I would expect JPY to come back with a vengeance.


----------



## CanOz

arco said:


> CanOz
> 
> I checked your chart against my 30m and can report no noticible difference
> 
> Seems like you've done a good job on coding.
> 
> rgds - arco




I didn't code it, i just bought it, its an add on. Very handy add on.

I must say this Ichimoku stuff is very interesting....i see some cool correlations to fibb numbers at times too. 

Keep it coming, i just learning new stuff like this, and then applying good trade management to it.

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how you pick them anyway, as long as it makes you happy.

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## Aussiejeff

Today - 

------------------

*BOJ Helpless as Yen Rises on Carry, UBS, Barclays Say *

 Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan may be powerless to prevent the yen from rising to a 13-year high, according to the world's biggest foreign-exchange traders.

Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG and Barclays Plc predict the yen will recover from its steepest weekly decline since 1999 as investors reduce carry trades that fund purchases of higher- yielding assets by borrowing in Japan. The currency will appreciate to 90 per dollar from 98.09 today in New York even if the Bank of Japan intervenes to stem the biggest annual gain since 1998, they said.

"Once the market realizes that we're now in a global recession, there's further deleveraging to come,'' said Geoff Kendrick, a senior currency strategist in London at UBS, the second-biggest trader in the $3.2 trillion-a-day market. "Traders are capitulating after five years of bets against the yen", he said in a Nov. 4 interview. 

---------------

Full article here - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJ.S4s.NPFWo&refer=home

Could be more pain on the horizon for the lil' Aussie bleeder. RBA might have to "intervene" a few more times yet?

BTW, anyone got a clue as to exactly HOW MUCH of our hard-earned the RBA spent on the $AUBananaBuck in its recent buying spree?


----------



## CanOz

Finished up with a nice little trade on both the AUD pairs last night. We'll see if we get a repeat tonight. 

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trying hard to lift from 64 in the last hour but gaining some momentum now.Must be athat 1min. triangle breakout attempt.

Yippee.:


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> Trying hard to lift from 64 in the last hour but gaining some momentum now.Must be athat 1min. triangle breakout attempt.
> 
> Yippee.:




It took about 20 minutes from posting to having my stop at 6385 touched by 1 tick.Nice work fellas.Hope a thousand fleas infest your bed.


----------



## Aussiejeff

Wysiwyg said:


> It took about 20 minutes from posting to having my stop at 6385 touched by 1 tick.Nice work fellas.Hope a thousand fleas infest your bed.




Ha!

I'll see your bet and raise you another wad of RBA guaranteed BananBuck$!!

Take that, you yella-belly Yen yankers!!!


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> It took about 20 minutes from posting to having my stop at 6385 touched by 1 tick.Nice work fellas.Hope a thousand fleas infest your bed.




Ha, ha... well, I might have a couple of fleas thanks to my cats, but at least your stop worked.

I finally made the move and opened a $50,000 practice account. First trade 1 lot AUD USD, then 5, then 10, all profit pretty quick.... got thinking huh, this's easy... switched to AUD JPY for something different... start 5, then 10, still all winners, balance now K70 odd in a few hours... ok let's see how quickly I can double this. 

Took a 20 lot short on a little wave 4, set stop... but stop didn't work on practice account, bugga, oh well the last wave shouldn't go far, I'll just let it run ... topped up short a couple of times... bugga, spiked a bit higher than I expected, margin call, another... sh*t, about four or five more little ones before it finally topped out and started going the right way.

Phew, that was close... knocked my equity down to abt K20 at one point... humm... have I got this count right... I think so, all my indicators still agreed... OK, gettin late, I'll just stop trying to be smart trading every swing and let it run out the 5 waves of 5 down from the hourly now that Yellow wave 4 has topped.

Equity over K80 a couple of times as the minor waves on the 5 min wander around... looking for somethin like .61 to close her all out, probably double my opening practice account in a day or so. 

There yer go... my first forex trading diary.  

Five min chart a few minutes old by now, blue dots entry last three trades (18.9 lots)... still holding to plan. 

PS: Anyone dissagree with my count/target... it's really taking a low, long, trajectory now... sometimes wonderin whether/when she'll finally collapse to finish off wave 5.


----------



## CanOz

Whiskers said:


> sometimes wonderin whether/when she'll finally collapse to finish off wave 5.




In one way or another i'm sure we are all wondering this Whiskers. 

Keep posting, looking forward to seeing your approach to FX.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Wysiwyg

Have fun with the practice account buddy.I was looking at various forex brokers and platforms and found this line highlighted in the extract below.Anonymous trading allays any doubt about stop hunters.Though the big hitters would be more likely targets than minor league players.



> Dukascopy is a full ECN and has no dealing desk. Dukascopy offers live passed through interbank spreads from 0 pips on majors, over 100 Million liquidity per click, the biggest fx liquidity network of banks, hedge funds and brokers, slippage control, partial fills, market, limit and entry orders next to market depth, *anonymous trading environment*. *Dukascopy does not pull out **your trade (no stop hunters). *




no stop hunters ... gotta love their honesty.


----------



## arco

Whiskers said:


> PS: Anyone dissagree with my count/target... it's really taking a low, long, trajectory now... sometimes wonderin whether/when she'll finally collapse to finish off wave 5.




Hi Whiskers.

Nice start on trading.

I'm not the worlds best wave counter but as I remember

Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, except in diagonal triangles and sometimes in wave 1 or A waves, but never in a third wave. 

rgds - arco


----------



## CanOz

arco said:


> Hi Whiskers.
> 
> Nice start on trading.
> 
> I'm not the worlds best wave counter but as I remember
> 
> Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, except in diagonal triangles and sometimes in wave 1 or A waves, but never in a third wave.
> 
> rgds - arco




On another matter, have you ever seen the price cross the kumo so many times recently Arco? No time to post, but suffice to say we are seeing some serious coiling action here.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## arco

CanOz said:


> On another matter, have you ever seen the price cross the kumo so many times recently Arco? No time to post, but suffice to say we are seeing some serious coiling action here.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Hi CanOz

Yes lower time-frames are seeing the plot+Chikou moving back and forth through Kumo with no distinct signal.

4hr is slightly more stable, with the action still trapped under the Kumo (bearish for now until all elements signal opposite)

rgds - arco


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> Have fun with the practice account buddy.I was looking at various forex brokers and platforms and found this line highlighted in the extract below.Anonymous trading allays any doubt about stop hunters.Though the big hitters would be more likely targets than minor league players.
> 
> 
> 
> no stop hunters ... gotta love their honesty.




Yeah, no fun. But I'll sort it out before I go to real cash.



arco said:


> Hi Whiskers.
> 
> Nice start on trading.
> 
> I'm not the worlds best wave counter but as I remember
> 
> Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, except in diagonal triangles and sometimes in wave 1 or A waves, but never in a third wave.
> 
> rgds - arco




Absolutely right arco... the 1 and 2 had gone off the screen and me gettin a bit weary just kept on counting 3, 4 ... but when my profit started gettin eaten up at a rate of knots I closed out and went to bed. 

Realised later it wasn't right, shoulda stopped at three... but I'm damned if I know what to make of the minor and intermediate counts now.


----------



## arco

Hi Whiskers

Can be frustrating at times.....but as I mentioned yesterday.........

................action still trapped under the Kumo (*bearish for now* until all elements signal opposite)

Large fall of circa 250 pips since then.

I post a chart later when I have a moment

rgds - arco


----------



## Whiskers

arco said:


> Hi Whiskers
> 
> Can be frustrating at times.....but as I mentioned yesterday.........
> 
> ................action still trapped under the Kumo (*bearish for now* until all elements signal opposite)
> 
> Large fall of circa 250 pips since then.
> 
> I post a chart later when I have a moment
> 
> rgds - arco




Yeah, I have to agree for now... although the 5, 15 and 60 min (this chart is the 60min) seem to be showing a possible bottoming out and turn in momentum short of taking out my yellow 2 on the daily.

Was doing much better workin the 5 min, taking cues from the 15 and 60 min and clipping the swings... every minute or few, pretty much by feel, like 'driving buy the seat of yer pants'  as good drivers say.


----------



## arco

.
Heres the 4H chart......

rgds - arco


----------



## CanOz

The Ichimoku is at it again throwing out some signals on pullbacks....and i'm buying them once confirmed!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## arco

arco said:


> .
> Heres the 4H chart......
> 
> rgds - arco




The reaction off the Kumo gave a nice southern ride with a max of circa *570 pips* (see previous chart).

PA back to test the Kumo again which needs to be broken to give the full IKH signal on H4. So its possible we could see some rejection coming in here.

GTA - arco


----------



## arco

.


arco said:


> ............................ its possible we could see some rejection coming in here.
> 
> GTA - arco




Bearish Engulf off Kumo sealed the deal.........*+115 pips*

GTA - arco


----------



## Indie

I'm shorting the YEN against AUD/CAD/CHF. Looks like this might have some legs after intervention threats by the BOJ.


----------



## BentRod

> after intervention threats by the BOJ.




Is that what it was?

Big impulsive moves on all the Yen pairs.

4h chart.


----------



## Indie

BentRod said:


> Is that what it was?
> 
> Big impulsive moves on all the Yen pairs.
> 
> 4h chart.




I guess so. Apparently BOJ will join in once a bit of momentum has set in against the YEN, so if that's how it plays this should have some legs. We'll see.


----------



## sinner

Japanese economist on the squawk box today saying he expects JPY to appreciate to 70!

Remember, Bloomberg predicted BoJ powerless to stop the slide from 100s to 90 as the carry trade unwinds and we are already at 87!


----------



## doctorj

> TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan warned currency markets on Thursday of possible intervention to stem the yen's rise after it hit a 13-year high against the dollar, adding to pressure on the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates to protect an export-dependent economy already in recession.



http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4BH3ON20081218


----------



## BentRod

Clear rejection with AUDJPY 

USDJPY seems to be holding up better.


----------



## fapturbo

Potential Inverted H&S on daily chart. Neckline could be breaking and making a run up.


----------



## Ato

Am I allowed to ask what people think is likely to happen with the AUD <-> JPY? I want the AUD to get stronger and have the exchange rate go back to 100 yen to the dollar (or more), as I have money I want to bring back to Japan. Is that likely to happen in the near future?


----------



## Tradesurfer

For any of the carry trades, generally they tend to mirror the overall markets. For the aussie dollar to continue trending higher, a lot of traders are wanting the central bank to raise interest rates. Since JPY has had essentially zero rates and not much sign of raising, traders will want to see that interest rate differential get larger making it more of an incentive to buy aud and sell jpy.

For now though the trend is up on a shorter to intermediate basis. Since I am a trend trader I don't make predictions though- just read and react. 

Overall markets good, Aud central banks start to raise rates--could keep the trend going.


----------



## Ato

Cheers TS. Fingers crossed for a rate rise in Oz then >_>


----------



## LRG

all,

start to watch this one again now.  commodities are up aud up jpy heading down.

broke 80 on fri - maybe heading bacl towards 100 now?

the trend is breaking out possibly???


----------



## Ato

I dont pretend to know much about forex, but rates up and more on the way apparently; commodities up; strong job growth; generally strong economy - all in Oz.

Japan is going down with the US dollar, but more because they want to kind of peg their currency to it for export purposes. Not necessarily because it is weakening against the Oz dollar. I guess it depends how long they want to let it fall with the US. Plus the new government keeps making contradictory noises to let it weaken and let it strengthen.

Because of the above, I dunno if it's going to get to 100+ again for a while, but I expect the AUD will rise against the yen beyond the 80 it's been sitting at. 

As I stated initially though, I dunno much about this, and my comments are based more on fundamentals than actually looking at charts, and these days the direction my study into trading is going makes me put more faith in charts then fundamentals.


----------

