# The Financial Endgame



## reichstag911 (29 May 2005)

May 27, 2005

The Financial Endgame Slowly Plays Out.
by Nigel Maund.

...the Sudden Systemic Implosion which will usher in the Brave New
World...

This article first appeared on www.clivemaund.com

"Capitalism requires people to be quiet souls in the workplace and
wild pagans at the cash register" - Ron Chernow, 1949, US Journalist

Amongst the growing plethora of warnings, some erudite some
emotional, Mr. Paul Volcker's commentary in the Washington Post
entitled, "The Economy on Thin Ice", of April 10th, has to be taken
very seriously, given the former's position as Chairman of the Fed
from 1979 to 1987, when he was succeeded by Alan Greenspan. Volcker
was forced into making very tough economic decisions in 1980, which
he did by raising interest rates sharply to cool a vastly overheated
market. Volcker acted as the Fed Chairman should, responsibly, and,
therefore, like few other market commentators has immense "gravitas"
when he flags up major economic issues as he has done. However, the
magnitude of the present Fed Chairman's problems are on a hitherto
unimaginable scale.

No country, or central bank, has ever attempted an exercise in FIAT
money creation of such truly breathtaking proportions before.
Moreover, no exercise in FIAT money creation has ever successfully
worked over the long-term in any nation where it has been attempted.
Before the post WW2 acceptance of the US dollar as a proxy global
currency, no country has had the unique opportunity to try such an
exercise out on a global scale. Dr Greenspan knows this. So, you may
well ask, what on earth is he up to?.... and, equally importantly,
why is it being done?

It is easy to caste Dr Greenspan as the befuddled "Mr McGoo" leading
America to economic and financial ruin. However, such a denigration
of this man's abilities is entirely misleading and dangerously
erroneous. The Fed has some of the finest financial and economic
brains on the planet. Therefore, the more acceptable answer as to
why the (digital) US$ money base has been exploded on an astronomic
scale has to centre on it being a part of a globally based economic
and political strategy.

The fact that this strategy has not been spelled out to "the world
at large" implies a hidden agenda, and, furthermore, a conspiracy.
Whilst "the conspiracy theory of history" is mocked by the media as
the realm of scaremongers, the ignorant and the naÃ¯ve, anyone who
has merely studied the history of Britain's Kings and Queens, over
the last 1,000 years, will readily see that conspiracies were very
much part of court life, national government and Britain's
international policy.

Nothing has changed. Indeed, with the advent of widespread literacy,
modern media and information technology, the obfuscation of, and
power to corrupt facts has been raised to a new and more
sophisticated plane.

"Baking the news cake" for palatable reception and consumption is an
art form perfected for specific markets, based on the cultural and
educational profile of the local, national or even international
consumer. CNN, CNBC , NBC and Fox News are little more than
propaganda organisations serving up a daily "McNews" for the
generally poorly read and travelled, culturally naÃ¯ve, and generally
poorly educated US consumer, on the basis that those who eat junk,
drink junk, read junk, watch junk and listen to junk deserve,
well... just more junk?

Mr. Hitler and Dr Goebbels would have been heartily jealous of such
a malleable and docile, if not to say almost bovine populace, who
could readily absorb such shallow rubbish and believe it all!
Unfortunately, the insidious US style media is polluting the planet
in the global attempt to produce a "dumbed down", ignorant, poorly
educated and malleable global serfdom, hooked on trashy TV and video
entertainments and other such puerile nonsense, and moreover, up to
their necks in debt and easy credit.

Again, one is led to ask why? Aren't we living in the enlightened
21st Century?..... or, are we regressing to type, as demonstrated
over thousands of years of human suffering at the hands of our own
dubious species?

Over the past four years, since the great stock market bubble topped
out at over 11,000 on the DOW, innumerable commentators have been
expecting the inevitable crash. However, time and again the Fed has
wrong footed the bears, making apparent fools of many experienced
and intelligent commentators, including lesser mortals like this
writer.

To a large extent, very few people are listening to the bears as a
result of their dismal track record. Complacency is currently rife,
as the markets defy financial and economic logic, and its economic
paradigms and models are apparently refuted by the "new economics"
of never ending FIAT expansion, akin to medieval alchemy. However,
even at the physical scale of stars and galaxies, periods of great
expansion are followed by sudden and very rapid implosion, as
gravitational forces overcome spent nuclear reaction.

In this writers' view, the end of the great global FIAT experiment,
based on the United States Dollar, will end, not as most people
think and hope for, as a well orchestrated gentle descent, but
suddenly and very brutally like a collapsing red giant reduced to a
white dwarf or X-ray star. Furthermore, an event, or a multiplicity
of major events, such as a continuing rise in the price of energy
and oil and/or sudden economically forced global rebalancing will be
the trigger for a collapse of the entire financial "house of cards".

This will destroy all the paper currencies, without any exception,
as they are all interlinked within the global markets, and none are
backed by gold or anything else of finite defined value. In this
circumstance, Richard Russell's views on gold and silver rise to the
fore, and he is to be much commended for "sticking to his guns". In
this writers view he is 100% right.

For the average person in the US, Canada, Britain, Japan, Australia
and New Zealand, not to mention much of the European Community, the
quality of life is steadily declining amidst the illusion of paper
wealth represented by assets such as houses, bonds and stocks. Since
1982, the money supply has been progressively pumped up at an ever
expanding rate, whilst real earnings have been in steady decline,
under steady erosion through real inflation as opposed to the
statistically incorrect CPI as corrupted by manipulative "jiggery
pokery" by successive governments.

The prime instrument in this global economic game has been one
fundamental to the lives of everyone; i.e., the house you live in.
Unless the householder is rich enough to afford to own two or more
houses, which most are not, then the paper gain in the steadily, but
rapidly rising, price of his home can only be realized if he sells
his home and move into a lesser house in the same area, or, one of
similar quality and size in a less attractive or sought after
location.

Most people do not like moving home for obvious reasons. Therefore,
the only benefit one gains from ever rising house prices, and
property prices in general, is if one can use some of the increased
equity in ones home to finance other consumption needs, such as:
education; cars; consumer durables; holidays; home improvements and
non-essential luxuries such as speed boats and jet skis. As many
writers have pointed out, a home is a source of finance amidst
falling real earnings, a veritable private bank ATM to be tapped
into as deemed necessary. This happy little arrangement has been
facilitated and expanded by an increasingly lax and accommodative
banking environment, which seems almost disinterested in whether one
can ever repay ones debts in the face of unemployment or illness.

Again, it is necessary to ask why this is being allowed to happen?
And, furthermore, why does it fly in the face of prudent money
lending, as deemed sensible practice, since the creation of the
banking system. Why have supposedly responsible governments allowed
it to happen without imposing regulations to protect the consumer
from himself and for himself?

In the event of a collapse in the heretofore ever rising housing
market, often at a factor of 3 to 5 times the increase in average
earnings over a sustained period of nearly 20 years, one's house
becomes a "financial lobster pot". Given the low equity in most new
home purchases, in a collapsing market the mortgagee is little more
than a tenant, albeit with a thumping great paper debt to pay off
over the rest of his or her miserable life.

In other words, modern society has reverted to one of Baronial
serfdom reminiscent of 11th Century Europe at its impersonal worst.
Genuine democracy and freedom has vanished in that other great
illusion - so called Democracy. The biggest fear a family man will
hold is losing his job. What a pernicious instrument of societal
control the home has become.

It's a corporate shareholders dream come true. Like a dead albatross
slung around the neck of "the ancient mariner", as he thinks: "how I
wish I had never bought this house!", and, how I wished that I had
saved for what I have purchased and that it really did belong to me.
The deep evil of credit, whose use appeals to man's darkest and
bleakest being, as an instrument of acquisition, exploitation and
control, will be brought home to the unthinking US, UK, Australian,
and Canadian consumer like his very worst nightmares.

As Yoda says to Luke Skywalker in the "Empire Strikes Back", "you're
not scared? .....You soon will be! Oh yes! You soon will be!"

The downside of the exploding property market is immense and highly
insidious. The vast inflation of property prices has served to bring
about the following:

1.
Distort the cost structure of the entire economy through
increased "on costs" of mortgages, rentals and leases, which are
recovered through higher charges on all goods and services;

2.
Inflated house prices push homes into higher tax thresholds
including: sales tax, stamp duties, council or local authority taxes
and capital gains tax resulting in increased costs of living;

3.
The increased purchase price, and lower equity downpayment in homes
for most buyers, requires them to take out ARM's (adjustable rate
mortgages) rather than fixed rate mortgages. This increases the
lender's exposure to financial risks in an environment of rising
interest rates, when unemployment and job loss risks increase.
Furthermore, most mortgages issued in ARM contracts are junk status
loans, backed by derivatives, with little or no financial due
diligence performed by the lender on the debtor;

4.
Further distortions due to high and rising house prices mean that
vital labour mobility is restricted throughout the economy as lower
wage earners, in important sectors of the economy, cannot afford to
take out a loan or move from a location of low house prices to one
of high prices. Such key labour includes: teachers, medical staff,
police, firemen, and drivers of public transport vehicles;

5.
Large mortgages, or home loans, come with a deep psychological load
on the mind of the mortgagee or borrower. The thought that you have
a mountainous debt overhanging your daily life effectively dominates
your life whether you like to admit it or not. The fear of losing
ones job, becoming ill, or having an accident, where you cannot pay
your monthly bill, resulting in your family being made homeless is a
socially destructive and degenerative influence, colouring a
person's outlook on life and their entire social behaviour. The net
result is greater mental stress and physical illness, increased
crime, drug and drinking offences. In some, and by no means rare,
cases, suicide results.

Now the great game plan starts to make some sense. Higher home loans
and the greater indebtedness of society are well on their way to
creating a modern version of serfdom, in which people will work for
a nominal income from the cradle to the grave, merely giving birth
to a new generation of serfs, as they live their constrained lives
earning nominal wages, never being able to somehow get ahead as
their income is whittled away by taxes, debt servicing charges and
interest payments, and everyday (and ever rising) living expenses.
Lives for most will comprise a few small pleasures and, mostly,
endless drudgery in making the elite few richer and able to enjoy
what most people can never have or even dream about having.

Modern Industrial-Corporate Dynastic families owe their origins to
the age of technological expansion and industrial development in the
19th Century. The prime interest of these families is to insure
their dynastic inheritance of power and wealth. The mentality of the
rich and powerful is absolutely no different to what it is was in
the age of Pharoah's, Kings and more obvious and recent
megalomaniacs like Hitler with his 1,000 year Reich.

Wealth and power corrupts and distorts the entire mental philosophy
of those who wield such power. The main effect is to numb the senses
to the feelings and wellbeing of all people and the enormous social
responsibility that comes with wealth. Evidence of the preoccupation
of the rich and powerful with grandiose, conspicuous consumption is
evident in the French Chateaux, colossal British Estate Homes, Aztec
and Egyptian monolithic structures and huge Roman villas etc. Time
and again, throughout history, from Chinese Emperors, European
Kings, Indian Moguls, and modern era Dictators, man has quested for
dynastic power over his fellow human beings, murdering countless
millions of ordinary people in the process, oblivious and
indifferent to their suffering.

Man's lack of wisdom and responsibility to his fellow beings has not
changed, only his technology and knowledge base have, which he
largely uses, unwisely, to further his personal ends. The current
financial game plan is just another variant of an age-old desire to
control people, this time not with brutal, and highly obvious and
alarming, armies of jackbooted asphalt soldiers, but with pinstripe-
suited, educated, suave bankers offering easy credit and good times,
like the fox to Pinocchio in Walt Disney's classic film. How easily
are the people gulled into economic slavery!

Their hedonistic greed for easy and immediate acquisition of goods
and comforts to fulfil a perceived need, that they cannot afford to
pay for, is being used to enslave them; as in Judo, the Japanese art
of self defence, a person's body and normal behavioural reactions
are used to bring them down.

Hand in hand with the strategy of enslaving people with credit is a
much wider-ranging, multi-pronged attack against the entire fabric
of society's cohesion. The facilitating of divorce laws, abortion,
gay rights, and a raft of more insidious measures such as the
progressive downgrading of the education system, except of course
for the elite schools like Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Browne, MIT,
Cornell, Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial College, UMIST, Durham, or ANU
and Melbourne in Australia, etc, where the offspring of the elite
get their university training.

Furthermore, in most countries students have to pay for their
education by taking out bank loans, financially enslaving them
before they have commenced their working lives! At the 1st grade
universities, academic requirements remain high to generally exclude
those who have not had a good private education. Furthermore, these
universities are usually located in more exclusive and more
expensive towns, such as Oxford and Cambridge, further discouraging
the poor from shouldering the extra costs of attending these schools.

In the scheme of the world to come, society is utterly atomised and
totally malleable. Every aspect of normal home and social life is
now under attack, and people are so preoccupied with debt repayment
and just keeping their heads above water, that they are not able to
focus on, let alone comprehend, the society they will bequeath to
their own children.

To keep the ordinary citizens happy, they are plied with constant
mindless entertainments, similar to those staged by the Roman
Emperors with their endless Games held in grand stadiums such as the
Coliseum in Rome. These distract the minds of the masses from the
reality of their pathetic existence. An ample supply of cheap food
is also available through a sophisticated mass distribution and
integrated farming system, provided by the powerful and omnipresent
supermarket chains such as Wal Mart, Sears, Tesco's, Sainsbury's,
Safeway, K Mart, ASDA, Coles, etc.

The availability of cheap and plentiful food helps keep the mass of
society placid and content. Furthermore, the availability of fast,
hyper-processed, junk food is a godsend for planners as it is
resulting is widespread obesity on a global scale. Obese people lack
the impetus to protest and are typically inactive and sedentary.

The present concern over the massive US twin deficits does not worry
the Fed for the simple reason that they fully understand what they
are doing. Everything is pretty much going perfectly to plan. They
know that one day the system will collapse, but only when they want
it to, and have all their plans in place ready for that day.

Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, the US has steadily but
increasingly pursued a strategy of flooding the world with US
dollars. Following WW2, which saw the destruction of the old power
Europe, the US dollar was the only currency, with its solid backing
of 22,000 tonnes of gold, and a strong and debt free US economy,
backed by a strong resource base and pre-eminent military power,
which could serve as financial collateral for international trade
and settlements. However, first the militarily drawn out Korean War
of 1950 and 1952, and then the enormously costly Vietnam War
debacle, from 1962 to 1975, progressively sapped US economic power
and undermined the dollar.

In 1968, the post war Bretton Woods Agreement in which the gold
price was fixed at US$35 per fine ounce was rescinded, and the US
dollar was largely taken off the gold standard. The final vestige of
gold backing for the US dollar was removed by President Nixon in
1971. This single act opened the credit floodgates and gold rapidly
rose to US$ 120 per ounce by 1976. Thereafter, under Paul Volcker's
tenure as Fed Chairman, FIAT expansion accelerated as the dollar was
no longer tied to anything. By 1979, the inflation of the money
supply was literally going out of control. Gold soared to US$ 850 an
ounce and silver rocketed to US$50.

Volcker had to act, and did so decisively, by using the only
effective tool in his armoury, interest rates, raising them rapidly
to 22%. This induced a severe financial recession which the incoming
Chairman Alan Greenspan relieved by once again opening the liquidity
spigot, financing Ronald Reagan's huge expansion of the US military
in the 1980's, and a huge accumulation of US national debt. The
economic brakes were applied to a vastly overheated economy in 1989
by raising rates into the teens again.

However, from 1992 to 2000, the US has seen the liquidity spigot
opened to an unimaginable level. The injection of so much cash into
any economy is bound to cause major distortions and excess, and it
did. The rest is history and is well known to readers. However, the
colossal equity bubble has spilled over into an even larger bond
market and now real estate bubble. US mega debts are collectively
something of the order of US$ 45 trillion, comprising US$ 8 trillion
of federal debts. The trade deficit is motoring along at US$ 600
billion + per annum, and the US needs to import US$ 2.6 billion a
day to finance its debt. Furthermore, the war in Iraq, planned
action in Iran, and maintenance of 700 + US military bases worldwide
is accelerating military expenditure.

A serious attempt at resolution of the gigantic US economic
imbalances is considered unlikely in the near future as the
liquidity spigot is still pretty much wide open. Real interest rates
are still negative or approximate to zero.

As is well known by most readers, the entire monetary system relies
on the symbiotic relationship between the US consumer, financed by
his vastly asset inflated house, bonds and equities, and provision
of cheap labour in China, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and India where
much manufacturing has been outsourced by global companies.

The US citizen will, over time, be reduced to earn the same wages as
his Chinese and Filipino counterparts. He hasn't realized it yet,
but he is being progressively reduced to sweatshop labour by being
reduced to accepting a job at MacDonald's or Wal-Mart on US$ 7 per
hour. Now manufacturing has been largely outsourced or relocated to
China or other Asian nations. However, the time will come, maybe by
2015 or 2020, when his wages will be reduced sufficiently to make
relocating manufacturing in Ohio an attractive proposition. Welcome
to globalization and the New World Order.

This is all wonderful of course if you are one of the owners of the
means of production and the capital base. You can play one nation
off against another, arbitrage wage rates and maximize profits, and
reduce your labour force to compliant and malleable serfs. All this
comes with the added benefit of "the Sword of Damocles" hanging over
each employee's head in the form of a debt mountain. What a
brilliant scheme this all is!

Far from being idiotic and improvident, Mr Greenspan's Fed has been
a main control box for what is a brilliant global plan, awe
inspiring in its breadth, depth and vision, and staggering in its
extremely cynical execution. This is surely mankind at his most
devious and is corruption of power taken to an ultimate level.

Using his incredible advantage of having a global currency, in which
all commodities are traded, and all international loans and
settlements made, the Fed has not only created an internal US
Dictatorship via credit, but has gulled China, Japan and SE Asia
into a brilliant trap.

The highly imbalanced trading relationship between China, Japan and
the US is well known, and has been frequently described in some
detail by Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist, Mr. Stephen Roach. In
this relationship, the US buys the majority of Chinese and Japanese
goods with digital dollars (real money simply no longer exists)
running up huge accounting surpluses with which they buy heaps of
meaningless paper in the form of US Treasury Bonds and Equities,
enabling the "economic merry go round" to happily continue. In this
highly distorted and imbalanced market, no one dare flinch. It is
the ultimate "Prisoner's Dilemma Game", and how Mr. Greenspan, a
brilliant Harvard academic, must love every minute of it.

The cost of anyone throwing in the towel and jettisoning the dollar
is quite simply awesome. No one has the courage to dare try. Like it
or not, Asia is America's hostage politically and economically and
can be crippled at a moments notice. China has no internal market to
replace the US consumer, and Japan, Taiwan and Korea are relatively
saturated markets. However, Greenspan knows that this "circus"
cannot be sustained forever. The dollar is under heavy pressure in
the open market as nerves are jangling at the sheer size of the
imbalances and awareness of the eventual correction. Europe has to a
large degree borne the cost of this great experiment, with a 25%
appreciation of the Euro, over three years, impacting seriously on
their economies.

Should the dollar drop significantly in coming weeks/months the
Europeans will be screaming for Greenspan to raise rates into real
positive territory before they are left no option but to short the
dollar and precipitate a market crisis.

To add to the above, commodities, not least oil, are on an ever-
upwards trajectory precipitated by sustained and increasing Asian
demand. Eventually, the inherent inflationary costs, global trade
and financial distortions will conspire collectively to force a
resolution of current imbalances. The longer this situation is
sustained, the greater will be the correction required. A soft, low
trajectory, landing is considered highly unlikely. The system will
implode when it finally goes.

The US dollar's value is only a perceived value. Its real value is
nothing. When the realisation dawns that there is going to be no
nicely "stage managed" end to this situation, the normal human
reaction will be to "hit the exits". The history of the markets is
not one based on simple mathematical logic. Man is first and
foremost driven by his primeval instincts; i.e., greed and fear. The
latter is the more powerful of these instincts.

When this market goes, it will do so across almost all sectors and
go very fast. Greenspan knows this. This is the grand denouement of
his global scheme, as any other end was never possible as it would
fly in the face of simple mathematical and economic logic. We will
then have his Brave New World, and the US will have Patriot Acts 1
and 2, and the Ministry of Homeland Security to sweep up the mess,
as the citizenry finally wake up to their awful predicament. Those
who have paid for their homes and hold private hoards of gold and
silver will be the only ones able to enjoy any form of normal life.

However, the future for the US looks pretty bleak given its current
political drift. I thank God I don't live there!

Nigel H. Maund
BSc(Hons)Lond., MSc, D.I.C., MBA, MIMMM, SEG
Economic Geologist


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## DTM (29 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*

Great article Rheichstag.

Awe inspiring indeed, if not fearsome.

Let the good times roll!!!!    

Makes a good case for people to learn options trading if we are heading for a down turn, especially if its triggered by the Europeans!!!


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## clowboy (29 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*

I get confused about the collapse of global currencies.

In effect if the financial system colapsed money would become worthless and going to work/owning a home etc would no longer have meaning (mass looting etc etc would start to occur).

In this article for example, when they start the colapse of currencies are that in fact implying a "depression"?  The logic of this makes sense to me but if it could be clarified.

Aside from that I wonder to what level of slavery we can be driven????
A very interesting point is that we are soconcerned with our needs NOW that we forget that it will only get worse for the next generation.  Under this finacial system those of us with several houses have in effect released our decendants from the burden of slavery.


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## Mofra (29 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*

Excellent article reich,

I am in lending as a profession and the number of people borrowing the maximum they can afford to purchase depreciating assets is unbelieveable - especially with interest rates at historical lows. The rapid devauaion of currencies is certainly a frightening concept, as I see it could have two devastating effects:

1.  the rapid rise in interest rates to try and support currency value - putting enourmous strain on many homeowners (never would the term "wage slave" become more true)

2.  devastation of international trade, raising the importance of domestic consumption - investment in agriculture anyone?

Already the average salary cannot support a nuclear family and payments to an average suburban home - so the message contained in the article certainly has evidence displayed in society as we speak.

Under these circumstances, would governments be tempted to pursue a military solution to provide  an artificial military economy? In 30 years time it may appear that George Orwell circa 1984 may have got the political system wrong but the social impacts distirbingly close.


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## Smurf1976 (29 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> Excellent article reich,
> 
> I am in lending as a profession and the number of people borrowing the maximum they can afford to purchase depreciating assets is unbelieveable...



Strongly agreed.

Hope you don't mind me asking, but do you have anything to do with lending for real estate - either owner occupied or as an investment?

I have this feeling that practically all house buyers in the past couple of years have gone to the lender, said "how much will you lend me". They get an answer to the effect of "do this, this and this and we'll lend you x". They do what is required and get the maximum loan and then buy the most expensive property they can afford?

In other words, they borrow as much as the lender will lend? I sure hope not but I'm thinking that this is what's happening just based on anecdotal evidence.  I also think that most loans are variable rate or fixed for short term only - not many taking out 5 or 10 year fixed???


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## DTM (29 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> Already the average salary cannot support a nuclear family and payments to an average suburban home - so the message contained in the article certainly has evidence displayed in society as we speak.




I remember an article I read 4 years ago in Japan about US poverty.  It was saying that Americans regarded poverty as a family living on a wage of 25k or less.  The figures were something like 3 out of every 11 families were living below the poverty line.  It also pointed out that most families live in cities so the actual poverty line should have been far greater because of the more expensive costs of living in the city. 

I think the american dream only comes true for a fortunate few, and that under the surface, things aren't as good as it seems.

Pesonally, I don't know how Americans can live on their minimum wage.  The scary thing now is that we are heading in the same direction because of the new industrial reforms.

I think the Japanese may have got it right.  On a personal level, their problem is not one of record debt, but one of too many people saving money.  I'm not sure what the impact would be for the Govt who are in debt.  Anyone have any ideas or thoughts on this issue??  Would love to have some views on it.


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## DTM (29 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Strongly agreed.
> 
> Hope you don't mind me asking, but do you have anything to do with lending for real estate - either owner occupied or as an investment?
> 
> ...




I'm always looking for Mortgagee sales now because it seems more common now than it was 2 years ago.

In saying that, if the economy slows down and the tax relief has no effect on lifting the economy, would the Reserve bank drop rates or keep it on hold?


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## Mofra (29 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Hope you don't mind me asking, but do you have anything to do with lending for real estate - either owner occupied or as an investment?




My role is solely real estate lending, and there has been a steady decline in the number of loans that are for purchases - currently I would estimate 10% of loan I assess would be for a purchase.

And yes, the lenders work out how much a client can borrow and work from there - often the purpose of a loan is decided after a loan amount is determined. Loans are rarely declined - if an external assessment is required and the clients are adjuged unable to meet the loan commitments, they will be offered a lower amount or longer term rather than having their loan declined.

Can anyone spell "credit bubble"?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (30 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> My role is solely real estate lending, and there has been a steady decline in the number of loans that are for purchases - currently I would estimate 10% of loan I assess would be for a purchase.
> 
> And yes, the lenders work out how much a client can borrow and work from there - often the purpose of a loan is decided after a loan amount is determined. Loans are rarely declined - if an external assessment is required and the clients are adjuged unable to meet the loan commitments, they will be offered a lower amount or longer term rather than having their loan declined.
> 
> Can anyone spell "credit bubble"?




Hi Mofra,

I like your cat do you like mine?

That is scary stuff. If they don't meet the loan commitments they are offered a lower amount.

What's the price of money sir? 
Convenience? 
I can't pay it back sir! 
That's ok, we'll just give you less.

Credit bubble come on down.


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## Milk Man (30 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> 2.  devastation of international trade, raising the importance of domestic consumption - investment in agriculture anyone?




that might be the only good point to come of it.

from a farmers perspective the only way weve made anything resembling a good return on capital is through buying and selling land. food is way undervalued. 

what happens when you dont eat? the result is a lot different to what happens if you dont have brand name clothes or a new car isnt it.

the supermarkets wont pass on the profit anyhow.


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## Smurf1976 (30 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> My role is solely real estate lending, and there has been a steady decline in the number of loans that are for purchases - currently I would estimate 10% of loan I assess would be for a purchase.



Thanks Mofra, you've confirmed what I was thinking. This could end rather badly if interest rates rise, jobs are lost etc.

Just one thing I am confused about though. You only do real estate lending but only 10% of the loans you assess are for a purchase. What are the other 90% for? Are people just increasing the size of their mortgage based on the increase in house prices and then spending the cash? Hope not but I've heard the idea promoted quite a bit.

What happens if the house price drops to below the mortgage amount? Does it matter in any way? All these 97% (and there are even 100% now?) suggest this could become a reality for quite a few.

Thanks.


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## Mofra (31 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Just one thing I am confused about though. You only do real estate lending but only 10% of the loans you assess are for a purchase. What are the other 90% for? Are people just increasing the size of their mortgage based on the increase in house prices and then spending the cash? Hope not but I've heard the idea promoted quite a bit



As a rule of thumb, another one or two percent would be poeple borrowing for investments, usually shares. The vast majority are for cars & boats 
(yep, using credit at historical interest rate lows for depreciating assets - shut up Australia, there's reality TV on)
With the remainder generally for refinancing other debts (yes six figure credit card debts for people on below average wages) home improvements, and quite a few for holidays.

As for shrinking prices in comparision to the mortgage amount - I wouldn't be surprised at all if it hasn't already happened. Some areas have had dramatic falls - Melbourne docklands seem to have as many lawyers trying to void sale contracts as there are tenents living there.

And for the record, a surprising amount of loans have government allowances as the *ONLY INCOME* supporting the loan. Anyone scared yet?


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## wayneL (31 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*

VERY insightful Mofra.

Have printed this thread out to hand around to a few idiot mates. 

Reality time approacheth!

Cheers


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## Smurf1976 (31 May 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*

The words republic, recession, bubble, banana, credit and burst come to mind. Arrange them in which ever order you choose. 

EXCELLENT post Mofra


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## Mofra (2 June 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*

Wayne & Smurf,

The really sad thing is the credit bubble highlights the fact that as a society we want to purchase luxuries before we have worked for them, without understanding the consequences. So many people have asked that a basic financial literacy component be added into school curriculums, without success. One hour a week in one term would be enough to prevent such a credit explosion ever happening again at such an exponential rate.


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## excalibur (2 June 2005)

*Re: The Financial Endgame.*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> Wayne & Smurf,
> 
> The really sad thing is the credit bubble highlights the fact that as a society we want to purchase luxuries before we have worked for them, without understanding the consequences. So many people have asked that a basic financial literacy component be added into school curriculums, without success. One hour a week in one term would be enough to prevent such a credit explosion ever happening again at such an exponential rate.




Hi Mofra,

Nice thread.
I think education at school alone won`t work if there isn`t a certain education at home. Kids need to follow examples.
But all summed up, I`m still sceptical. Man learns only through failure.
Remember the great depression and what happened afterwards?
The lessons that were learned?
I think that man will learn first after the bubble has popped if it ever will?


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