# Gold CFD Day and Trend Trade Journal [Demo]



## Triple B (12 January 2018)

Why Journal For a Demo account?
I need numbers before the real deal.
To help keep disciplined.
To show other newbs what to do/not do.
We always see good trades , but I would like others to see the bad ones too. 
So we I /we can learn from mistakes without losses.
No way I would go into day Trading without practice. 

Why Gold? CFD
Starting with $2000.
I have wanted to try The Wyckoff method of trading with futures .
Gold seems actively traded .
Trends seem to last weeks with less longer term volatility.
I like trading low volatility with leverage.
Night [intra day]trading a possibility

What is a Gold CFD.
A Gold CFD is an Over the Counter Derivitive product.
The price and volume are derived from the CME Gold Futures Contract[GC]
I have compared the FP Markets Chart to the Charts on CME site and they look pretty close.

GC
Is a contract to purchase 100 Troy ounces of deliverable gold in a Bar on a certain date.
CME holds the bars in their vaults around the world.
Each bar has 1 contract.
Bars that go into CME vaults must be refined and delivered by particular companies.
If a bar goes outside the CME vaults it cannot be returned unless re-refined and tested , delivered back to CME by the same companies.
You can have you 100oz of physical gold delivered if you have a warrant for the bar.


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## Triple B (12 January 2018)

I have had a small amount of experience trading Stock with Leverage.
See my Small CFD acc Journal.
Time to go for GOLD.
The Trade selection Method will Be based on Wyckoff principles and chart reading /marking.
Will be making a larger risk Trend Trade.  and possibly scale in if trade goes well.
Smaller Risk Day Trades.
Will also be a Long term WTI[west Texas Intermediate oil] 

I cannot Start Trading real $ till I have 3 profitable or B/E weeks in a Row.Numbers taken from Stop Loss orders + unrealised profits + equity
Account must be at Least 5% in profit as well
This Give the trading Some reals "pressure". 
I have the $ in the account But need the final $250 paid with CCard to activate it .
Cant then be tempted to Start early.
No Skills =no real Trades. 

Trend and Day Trades will have Stats Kept Seperate


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## Triple B (12 January 2018)

The Rules:

These rules can Be Added to if I think of more.
Can go long or Short
If In a Marked Trend, Trade in Trend Direction Only
If In A Larger Timeframe Trading Range trade off the Support /Resistance Close as possible
All Trades must have at least 2xR potential
Trade break of Support only . ie fake out entry on or near Support.
When Nearing Major Support /Resistance trade in opposite direction , on breakout not Fakeout



$ Risk Management

Trend trade = 5% R or $100 with Stop around $10 away
This gives a contract siize around 10oz or $10 move  per 1$ move in 1oz Gold
When 1st Trade is at least B/E then can look for another entry.
Better to get stop to $100 profit before scaling another entry.
Day Trade Max R is 2.5% or $50 per trade
Stop needs to be $1 away for 0.5 Contract[$50 per oz $1 move]
or  $2 Away for .25 Contract

Max Loss per day for day trades  =$100 or 5%
Trade R is Scaled up/down every $100 of account movement.
3 Trades max for day Trades . trend trade does not count towards day trade count
if  $100 is lost on Trend trade then only $50 Risk on day Trade that Day.
account will be run at around 10% margin for trend trades .
Day Trades will be 2%margin.
These will reduce as hopefully acc grows and R size is also reduced in relation to Acc Size.
[Also reducing profit as a%]

Just Decided to scrap WTI Trades and Concentrate on Gold only .Focus.
Will Start a New Demo without WTI and $2k in Good time to Start as CPI [inflation]
Figure come out Tonight our time 12:30am

Will take Screenshot of acc Before Then and post.
Will change 1 rule from above to only Start trading when acc is 20% in profit with 3 B/E or winning trading weeks in a row.


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## Triple B (12 January 2018)

Now For The Charts 
If Anyone is interested in The Wyckoff Method of TA , then I highly recommend this series.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/archives.html

Here is The 5 Year weekly Gold CFD Chart.
Also a quick intro to chart Markup. Wyckoff Basics.

First the Acronynms used.

CO.    Composite Operator.  A heuristic [fictional idea to help understand a complicated or difficult subject]
The CO are the Big Money Combined .But Not any Big Money Operator s.
The Super Traders if you like. [Smart Money]
They have enough money to  influence the price by accumulating supply , then withholding that Supply to encourage a mark-up in price . Then they distribute To weak Holders[ ie retail Holders and weak Big Money.Once the weak Holders Have the supply  Prices will mark down as The big Money Don't want the Stock/ Contract...etc so weak Holders have less Buyers to Sell To as prices stall / Retreat.

This accumulation/ mark up/ Distribution/ Mark Down can Happen in any Timeframe where the Smart Money CO Are Active.

PS : Preliminary Support : The First Stopping Action of a markdown in Price. Ie Where the CO Start to Absorb Supply. 

SCLX :Selling Climax : The price at which Supply Is overcome By CO Demand. Also The Place where a Support Line is Marked in a chart to Identify a Trading Range[TR] Support Area. Often Accompanied by Large Volume

AR:  Automatic Rally. The Upward Rally in Price After a SCLX. This is Supply Being Bought  By CO
Volume can decrease as supply is taken out. The Top of The AR Is where The Resistance Line Goes.

ST . Secondary Test. Supply Buying is decreased to Find and confirm a Support[Demand Price.]
Can Be used as a Secondary Support Line if There is Significant Difference To SCLX Support Line.

With these 4 point We draw a trading range after a down trend.
After an up trend the range is Similar but Using Slightly Differing Terminology
	

		
			
		

		
	






SOS: Sign Of Strength: Rising Back Into TR IS A SOS. A Higher Low once in there Is also a SOS.
Rising over PS is also SOS........
COC: Change of Character Where Lower lows are Now Higher Lows etc
LPSY : Last Point Of Supply. Wher Supply is Now possibl mostly absorbed/ Accumulated  allowing Demand To Dominate, hence the Demand/Support Line

If There is one thing to notice on this chart , It Is all the potential accumulation under the PS Since June 2013

Next we will Zoom Into The Daily 1 Year [After Golf] and Look For a potential Trend Trade.[/TR]


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## Triple B (13 January 2018)

One more rule, 
Trading Anouncements like Non Farm Payroll, CPI etc. 
Wait for initial direction momentum to slow. Wait for  Candle to confirm Reversal then enter . Hold until initial price and then possibly beyond. Similar for USD move or news .


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## Triple B (13 January 2018)

Now For the 120Month Daily Trend Chart  




We Can See the weekly Red lines of Suppoert [Solid] and Preliminary Support [Broken Red]
Green arrows Signs Of Strength. Red arrows Sign of Weakness.
Blue arrow is where longer Term Stride of Trend was Set after 6 Months
SOS are from left to Right
Price Re entering Trading Range after Shakeout [Red Line]
Price Testing Support and moving away quickly [Red Line]
A higher low above Support[ Trend line could be drawn at the second and third green arrow at the time a higher low is confirmed]
4th Green arrow is a SOS as price re enters Trend Channel Support
Last Green arrow is SOS as price moves strongly over longer term preliminary Support[ When the CO appears to have started accumulation back in 2013]

We can See where long and short positions may have a better probability of success[in theory]
However the current trend channel was not set till blue arrow .

So What did the chart look like before then?
Lets have a look see.


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## Triple B (13 January 2018)

Here is the evolution of the trend lines as I would mark them over time.
I have not drawn the top line[overbought line] For Clarity
Overbought line is put on the high between the higher lows parallel with demand line.
The blue line is the current bottom trend Channel [Demand/Support] Line
The white line is the potential next line to the new higher low. 
This would be for an even longer timeframe.
The trend channels get wider over time as the price swings further over time.
Trend channels help me determine overbought/oversold conditions which can give early warning of stopping action/a buying or selling climax.
Larger channels [ Ie longer timeframe ]can help  with swing trade decisions.
They are scaleable right down to 1min charts
they help determine direction of trade[long or Short], shorter timeframe channels take priority .
Preferably all timeframe channels are in the same direction





Next I will show how I Use trading ranges within/ and outside the trend lines.
I am showing these techniques so anyone interested can follow along with trades and understand what I am trying to use as a technical analysis method. There appears to be almost infinite ways to do this. I I need to settle on one and master it I believe.


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## Triple B (14 January 2018)

We can see a Trading range emerge after a selling climax.
Notice the trading in the bottom half of the trading range under the Preliminary Support Line. 
A good sign CO are accumulating as cheaply as possible.
notice volume rising as price falls before shakeout. CO Gobbling up the 100oz Contracts and Short selling .
Then volume declines over Christmas new year but price starts to rise.[CO Short Sellers Cover to help Start Mark up Phase with bullish candle] [CO Christmas present to Gold Bugs]
A good time for the CO to now withhold supply, because other Big money supply is on christmas hols.
Demand sees the bullish bar and supply is thin= Mark up
Supply is Gradually sold into mark up through TR so as not to stop mark up. R is Jumped and a minor sell off above R occurs. Not enough Supply for Reversal .
In Fact,  supply  coming in  [Large vol] not enough to contain price .
I believe we are now about 3/4  way between mark up start  and final distribution into BCLX
The final stage may be around the $1350 purple Previous R.
We then may see a Stepping stone re accumulation with large shake out  and a continuation of the Longer term Year long Trend.
Why ?
If we look at the Red Broken PS Line we have just Jumped It .
Could be Slightly Higher Than where I marked it.But around there
This Is Where CO Accumulation Appears to Have Started Back in early 2013. Could be Slightly Higher 
Therefore The early Longer Term CO Gold Bulls Are Now Starting to  Realise Profits .

They Hold the Supply and wont Dump it until The PS Line is History .
Potentially at  the September 2017line [Purple]$1350. and perhaps up towards the top TrendChannel $1400
I f  they all withhold the supply and take advantage of USD weakness.
Thats the way I see it at the moment.

Next a 4 hour chart .
I am considering  a quick Long Trade to $1350.


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## Triple B (14 January 2018)

Here is a 4 hour chart
We can see a breakout of the mini TR.
Then a bullish candle with high vol . the last candle is a 4 h doji low vol.
Now will zoom into 15 min chart to try and time an entry long.


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## Triple B (15 January 2018)

Live trade









Trend lines then extended
Note where SL is [Now TP] to allow for shakeout


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## Triple B (15 January 2018)

Now we are in new TR old Trend line can be deleted.
New trend should emerge from TR.
Longer term Trend ch can be marked from SCLX in Lower TR when significant higher low is formed.
Hope SL is low enough for Shakeout!


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## Triple B (15 January 2018)

Here is the concept of Jump Acroos the creek.
It Is a SOS in TR.
We May expect a Back up to the Creek [BUC] after the jump, Much like when a TR breakout occurs it will often back up before resuming 
New Scale in Pos could be Taken Here .
No New pos for me until trade is at least 2X R.
R Here was $100 or 5% of acc. Was going  to be 2-3 Day trade . May still be.to 1350 area.
Area of previous longer term R [Refer to daily Chart]


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## Triple B (15 January 2018)

Creek  jumped .
Stop will remain where it is while I go and organise Stuff


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## Triple B (15 January 2018)

So That's how My day trading works.[so far !]
Just Got Back from errand and moved Stop Up To about 1:5 x R [$150Profit]
Once the Stop is at  2x R It will remain there for a while to then be a swing /Trend trade .
In effect it is now a Free Trade!!
I also took 2 smaller trades on Friday night [early sat morning ] on the CPI announcement but got stopped out on both. -$66 This was the Official start of the Demo Acc.
Pure Trend/Swing trades [ This one was a kind of hybrid] pretty much work the same but with wider stops [about $10] smaller position around 0.10 contract.
This trade started with stop $ 4 away so $100 R /$4  +25 so Contract Size was 0.25. or 25oz $25 per $1 move
I will now probably  update once per week , on weekends . Just wanted to give an idea of what I see using Wyckoff method.


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## Triple B (15 January 2018)

Stopped Out. SL was on top of middle TR
$138 profit[ was going back to move it up to $150 profit. for 1:5 xR ]
Re entry is possible for $50 R  or 2.5% of acc [ 3 trades max per day or $150 risk max per day, 1st trade was $100 R ]
Acc currently $2073.57


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## Triple B (18 January 2018)

Gold 1 hour
Lookin for a jump back up into longer term support[red line] using a breakout from shorter term trading range



Has all the textbook signs
A longer term swing trade bought on yellow support and a day trade bought mid range after Jump across creek with higher low.


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## Modest (18 January 2018)

Look out for 1,335.80 as R


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## Triple B (18 January 2018)

Yep Thanks .
Just got stopped out on Lower Trading range R for .75 X R profit  roughly . on the stop hunt.
1 More trade allowed so straight back in .
Would like to see back up and  jump into 1331.50 longer term Support.
Not  encouraging seeing the lower volume up bars. Lacking demand . Relying on supply withholding only.
Anybody else feel free to comment  here .


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## Triple B (19 January 2018)

Stopped out again for $20 loss .
off to bed
Big Fat  Bears with big claws!!
Swing trade still on . Put a T/P order on for 3x R just over the longer term support of $1331.50
Learnt that lesson a couple nights ago when price went to about 3x R while asleep then back to stop out just before  I woke up  !

Good luck


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## Triple B (19 January 2018)

Woke this Morning to T/P order filled for 3X R [$ 150]. Just Got over Longer Term Support and touched order price . Then Had 2 Attempts at a day trade this afternoon for a small $ 20 loss.
Have 1 More Day Trade left befor Midnight.
Put a $100 Risk Swing Trade on after Shorter term TR was jumped and then tested . see cart below for small green arrow entry.
Price then jumped back into longer term Trading range support [Red Line]
Many signs of strength .  Looking to add to swing trade position when Stop gets to B/E and expect a test of longer term  support [red Line]before trip back to top of  TR $1344




Notice attempt to jump back into previous longer term up trend demand line[green]
Also jump up into Longer term Trading range with tests to panic out competing supply .{weak supply]
The more contracts the CO has , the more control of the mark -up process they have.
ie  Weak supply does not stall mark up
Remember the contracts are limited by the number of Gold Bars the CME has in the vaults.


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## Triple B (19 January 2018)

Just used last day trade for today  to go short as current uptrend was in overbought condition. 
Looks like Buying Climax BCLX .
setting up new shorter term TR?
Just got stopped out for BE on bounce off top trend line.
Next Day trades can be taken at 12:01 am.
1 st Week of Demo ends tonight 11:59 pm
Just moved Swing trade S/L to $1326 for Risk = $55 down from $100


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## Triple B (20 January 2018)

1 st weeks account


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## jjbinks (20 January 2018)

interesting thanks for sharing.


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## Triple B (20 January 2018)

Forgot to copy detailed report last night before last trade which was stopped out .
Will make next week end later  Saturday Morning so Have got all weekend to do diary , stats etc.


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## Triple B (20 January 2018)

So about B/E with Win Rate 31.25% 
Pretty sure I can get that to around 50%  with a bit more  care and a little less fear of losing R.
A couple of those B/E trades were profitable after stopped out . but stops were run too tight too early,
To get trade to B/E so I could not lose.


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## Triple B (23 January 2018)

Good chance to learn how to trade in the trading range at the moment I believe.
I suspect there will be an extended period trading between $1331 and $1345
Mainly at the lower half of the range.
I suspect there will be an extended period of re-accumulation then perhaps a shakeout down to low $1300s and then a spring to jump the $ 1350 mark . May take some effort in the form of Large re-accumulation to soak up enough supply to clear the previous resistance around $1350s and $1370s.
Current 0.10 trade is now at B/E .Entry was at left of chart

Not Sure why my R was $62 for the 0.25 contract trade.should be $50.Stopped out 
Need to be careful when moving S/L price on MT4 Chart





Had a couple accidental trades on Monday with the new phone app. no harm done as worked out how to exit pretty quick. another good reason to demo account is to learn how to use all tools with no fear of blowing $ while mistakes are made.
Those trades don't count towards daily trade limit.
Some how put a trade on today while checking trades on phone. did not know until I got on laptop 30mins later!
Just closed day Trade for $50 win .
$62 in profit with 1 trade at B/E
Equity about $2135


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## Triple B (24 January 2018)

Bugger. accidently closed out my swing trade last night while trying to put a trailing stop order on!
I thought  a point on GC was $1 turns out a point is 1c . A tick is 10c
So put trailing stop  15c away  and could not fix it by the time the stop was filled.
$ 74 profit  but should still be in the trade at around $ 100 Unrealised profit.
Also got into a day trade just as I was going to bed at about 1am.
Price dropped hard, possibly a big stop hunt and spring off support.
I have tried to trade these before but keep getting stopped out.
This time I waited till the momentum slowed and entered Long .
But had the stop just a little too tight.
Getting greedy and having a tight stop to maximise position size.
The price then did exactly as I expected ,and increased back to where it was and then some.

So next time will lower position size and increase stop distance as these trades are potential 3-4 x R
Here is the entry below. Larger green arrow shows entry Candle. Smaller green arrow shows Entry Price. Small red arrow shows S/L order.



Then just touched stop as marked by small red arrow.
Had TP order on for about 1.5 x R or $125


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## Triple B (25 January 2018)

Well looks like the bulls have control !! Smashed passed $1350 like it was nothing .
So much for my long re accumulation theory!
Quite frustrated with myself for accidently closing the swing trade with the trailing stop as it would now be about $300 unrealised profit.[entry was $1330 0.10 contract].
Had that on in case the Trading range Broke out  ,and it did!!
Back in long at the consolidation at $1359 and climbing. 
Seems like the biggest problem at the moment is Me and my MT4 skillz
That's Ok . Best to sort out the problems as much as possible while training.
Here is the re-entry. lets see if it stalls near $1370 or smashes through . 
Stop will trail about $10 below.


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## peter2 (25 January 2018)

Everybody makes the occasional mistake with their orders. I resolved very early in my journey to fix every mistake asap. I wouldn't wait to see what happened next. The mistake had to be corrected immediately. I've sold twice (overlooking a sell stop order, making myself short) and paid the extra brokerage/commission to fix the mistake. I've bought instead of sold and paid the extra costs to fix it. I've placed limit orders instead of stop orders. Paid up and took the loss immediately, to fix my mistake.

I've always taken care to understand the contract spec's, especially so with cfds as their spec's can be different than the futures contracts. A mistake with leverage can wipe out a cfd account as soon as the fat finger presses the button. 

I assume that your trading plan doesn't have any instructions on what to do when you make a mistake like these.


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## Triple B (25 January 2018)

peter2 said:


> I assume that your trading plan doesn't have any instructions on what to do when you make a mistake like these.



Correct.
I am going to get my A5 notebook and re write my plan in that.[Where the 1st one is]

Much more detailed on entry , money management , errors, and whatever else I think of .
A bit erratic with entry at the moment . 
Expect  a more detailed plan posted here soon .Feel free to criticise or offer advice.
Thanks


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## Triple B (27 January 2018)

OK.
Thing have been a
bit out of control here.
Trading outside my rules !
Too many trades yesterday . 5 instead of 3
Lost more than my daily Limit chasing losses and did not reduce position size in relation to account size.
Need to set a take profit order  at 2XR  when away from laptop . keep trying for 3x R and missing the fill,
Trying to get back to even with one trade
Also need to re-write rules a bit more specific on entry and also error correction rules.
Then print a checklist to run through before each trade. Just forgetting to reduce position size has cost 
around $50
Here is the chaos on a chart 
Large green arrow is entry Long Candle
Small Green arrow is entry price 
Small red arrow is Initial SL and then exit price if higher 
Large red arrow is exit candle
Still finding my way with chart marking for best revision



Still finding my way with chart marking for best revision


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## Triple B (30 January 2018)

So, have got position sizing back under control.
However have been trying to take long positions during shorter term downtrend . trying to pick the bottom is not a profitable strategy ,at least for me.
Again not following my rule of trading in the direction of the shorter term trend.
Account now  down to $1580 .
However 1st Short position  taken a few hours ago  in trend is already almost at a point where s/l  is at B/E
Look at what I was trying to trade against !!!



Still working on revised written trading plan. Trying to simplify it a bit.


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## Triple B (30 January 2018)

Gold  is nuts . Crazy way to end a downtrend? Then jump back into longer term TR [red Line] maybe.
At  least I got on the breakout with my last trade of the day.currently 2xR profit .
Had to go against the trend . Break out was too big to go against.
This is going to take some real work to be profitable.


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## Triple B (3 February 2018)

So...............
I cracked he S#&s With Gold CFD Demo Last night.
Balance was down to $1450 and equity to $1390 s 
after taking more than my 5 allotted trades yesterday  and going past my 3% daily loss limit as per new plan.
Put it all on Red or Black for the NFP and lost down to margin call status and about $850 equity.
That's 27.5% loss on account without including equity which makes the loss 30%
before the NFP Punt.
Then down to about $50 margin call with trades still on over the weekend!
The is not how we trade in the real world is it??

Just to get back to even when the equity was down to -30% would require a gain on the $1390 of 44% to get back to $2000.
This Would probably take a good  trader 6 -12 months  at a guess to recover at minimum .
Clearly I am not a good trader , so not much point going further with this account.
Ring the demo broker to close all trades and send him the margin asap.

The beauty of the Demo account is that we can work on strategies without the pain of losing real $$ during the initial planning and education phase. 
This can also be seen as a weakness of the demo acc. 
No Skin In= no pressure. 
We get  to test our strategy against the market in real time, tweak it and try again.
I believe its called "forward testing"?

What did I learn from my first go at Gold CFD

1 . You need to make  sure that you calculate profit inside your intended trading range during day trades  is more than 2/1 and also allow for the spread and Stop . This should get you to at least B/E with 33%
Win Ratio. I started to measure my TR with the handy Tape measure in MT4

2 . Spread on gold cfds all seem to be about 25c or 25 CFD FX "points" 
This means you need to tighten stops outside the TR to sqeeze in a trade.
or Better still trade a wider range [ defined in points in plan] and trades take longer than a couple hours for Day Trades .

3. Learn about the $USD.
As The USD make up the other half of your trade [ and many FX pairs]
I believe at least a basic fundamental understanding of how the $USD moves in FX/ Commodities 
Trading would be of benefit. This can at least tell us why our technical near perfectt trade fell apart or possibly allow us to see why all the pairs $USD move and combine that with a correlated T/A trade for a double confirmation of entry . ie some basic $USD Index and other Stats into Entry  Plan .

4. May be easier to trade FX/ $USD  Pairs day trading due to tighter Spreads.
13points [or pips] or less spread generally. Allowing wider stops outside TR on Similar charts to gold.
The EUR/USD is correlated to Gold as Well as USD/ GBP .  AUD , And many other USD Pairs . Save the Gold trading for Longer Trends and the 2000 point Trading range Trade over a week or month.
$ JPY/USD is inversely correlated to Gold and yen Futures are about 90% correlated .
Can also trade NFP and other announcements for the God day trade .

5. Look into arbritrage opportunities against gold charts? 

6.Look at indices as well.

I'm Going to start a new Demo trying to trade wider ranges and trend trades in gold and shorter term trades /day trades in Forex USD Pairs.
This may have been suggested to me earlier.











FX pairs


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## peter2 (3 February 2018)

Triple B said:


> OK.
> Thing(s) have been a
> bit out of control here.
> Trading outside my rules !




Yep.


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## Triple B (20 March 2018)

So .....
Im still here.!
I decided to try trading fx and gold with real $$.
Thought it might help with discipline !
Had no real strategy or plan. paid the price. Dropped $850ish in a few weeks!! started with $1270
But, I have learnt a heap about trading and myself in that time .
The good news is I have started to string together a few profitable days.
Also am starting to get into a pattern of sticking to my rules . that's always good.
No longer giving back the profits of the day chasing the  big win.
I now have a couple strategies that seem to be consistent enough to see profits .
simple buy stop order breakouts with an ascending triangle pattern an 1x R take profit with high win rate .[ not enough trades yet for  decent stats]
and descending triangle pattern onto longer term support for multiple x R breakouts .[Long]
Using Wyckoff to get entry down near support where possible and can really start to see how the traders are battling for the $$
Also learning to use multiple charts for each currency and picking the strongest looking setups.
You can sometime pick the strongest potential breakout by the pattern below Resistance.
Have had a few days in a row of + 3%-7% profits  with R of 2%
Still making impulsive trades at times which needs to stop.
Time to write down some more specific rules .
I can also see some other strategies that I will test on Demo,

Now I will  start feeding a little $ at a time back into the account .
Will be using daily , weekly ,and monthly Profit and loss targets .
I am also using old school diary to log trades, max 6 in/out per day .
These are short duration trades using Daily  , 1 hour  15 min and 5 min  , and 1min to watch the action.
anywhere from 10seconds[ had one 1xR today] to several hours.
There may even be some of several days duration if a trend breaks out and Can get stop to +R and leave it  when the daily profit is reached .
Might start a new journal once I get a couple grand in the acc.
Bye
Brendan


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