# Who actually predicted this Property boom?



## robots (3 August 2009)

hello,

good evening,

i know most RE agents always believe no time better than now to buy and has been their moto for a long time now

so well done RE agents, any others for the list?

thankyou
professor robots


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## robots (3 August 2009)

hello,

gee, the land rats were that far ahead of all the pro's

no-one else, amazing

many will be reading articles from the land rats with a lot more interest now i guess

thankyou
professor robots


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## tech/a (3 August 2009)

Classic!


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## kincella (5 August 2009)

funny, is that what we landlords are...land rats? 
it was a really simple understanding of human nature, and some experience and history, that spelt out where property would go , under those circumstances.....too easy...
oh and notice how the US are following us again, as in the past, they follow us on property, so we go up, so do they....
yet all the kids and others were saying the opposite,,,ie that we follow the US...well not on property we dont....maybe the stockmarket....


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## MACCA350 (5 August 2009)

Just heard on the business channel that personal bankruptcies are up 33% 

Spoke to new home builders 'places'(a division of one of the big builders, can't remember which one) they mentioned they are having quite a few FHB having to pull out due to finance not being approved. 
They said now they will not deal with anyone unless they have their finance 100% locked in, because they are sick of wasting their time and their schedule being stuffed up. Seems to be a growing problem.

At the moment they(and their parent builder) and Simmons have start dates filled up till February, makes you wonder how much of these sales over the last couple of months will fall through due to finance issues.

One question, where does RP Data pull their sales figures from? 
Is it from the contract of sales, or is it from the settlement ie actual title transfer?
I know that REIV get theirs from the agents which would be contract of sales

cheers


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## Beej (5 August 2009)

MACCA350 said:


> One question, where does RP Data pull their sales figures from?
> Is it from the contract of sales, or is it from the settlement ie actual title transfer?
> I know that REIV get theirs from the agents which would be contract of sales
> 
> cheers




They get reported sales at contract exchange from about 75% of R/E agents nationally I think (more timely), plus they then get the settlement data from the various state land titles offices (obviously this takes longer, but covers 100% of all sales). So if anything changes between exchange and settlement it does get factored in.


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## MACCA350 (5 August 2009)

Beej said:


> They get reported sales at contract exchange from about 75% of R/E agents nationally I think (more timely), plus they then get the settlement data from the various state land titles offices (obviously this takes longer, but covers 100% of all sales). So if anything changes between exchange and settlement it does get factored in.



So for a given period they include both contract of sale and settlements within that period is that correct? 

What happens if last month a contract of sale was cancelled, do they readjust those figures for that last month, or is it that sale just does not get added(again), since it wont reach settlement, into the future figures?

I'm trying to get my head around the timing of the figures and how cancellations of contracts affect the figures.

cheers


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## robots (2 April 2010)

hello,

good evening fellow members and guests, great day

thought i should revisit this thread to see if any other additions to the list, which so far includes real estate agents and real estate and real estate agents

no economists? 

thankyou
robots


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## tech/a (2 April 2010)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> good evening fellow members and guests, great day
> 
> ...




Ive seen 2 in my time.

Was involved in property in each and had no idea they would BOOM.
But in the future I'm now able to see the signs if ever they appear again.

Positive gearing was a certainty you could guarantee it.
Even with zero down. That was Pre BOOM.
Rarely seen and will be rarely seen again.


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## kincella (2 April 2010)

I dont think any of the gurus predicted the boom.....
it was purely a flight from the horrors of the GFC
most investors want their money at work, not sitting idly in a deposit somewhere...., I predicted a flight of money into property, it was a copy cat reaction to the tech wreck, and the flight of money then into property.

when I went looking post tech wreck, none of the agents were predicting a boom...in fact I find the agents are just as depressed as the rest of society, unless they are in the middle of a boom....cause a lot of them play the stock market too

I figured after the tech wreck, there would be a lot of disgruntled investors, they would go back to the safety of bricks and mortar....
I bought quite a few little bargains...it was a buyers market then in 2000 to 2002
I had intended holding them for 10 years or more....
by late 2003 to mid 2004 the boom appeared, all those cashed up city folk were selling out, and buying the  tree change areas for a third to half the price, and had stacks of cash left over...
the agents called me, I was offered triple the price to sell....
so I sold half of them.....well they had reached my 10 year goal, in just 2-3 years

the same thing is happening now, post GFC, I knew the investors would wait it out, while the FHB let loose, and re- enter the market after Feb- Mar 2010....the upgraders went rampant last year with the low interest rates, and sold to the FHB's....

the RBA sent interest rates rocketing, too fast, too soon...
I am expecting a slow down whilst the economy drifts thru the
2nd phase of the GFC....
the GFC has done more to damage investors confidence than the tech wreck...
I expect the property market to cruise along, investors need to park their money somewhere...some will never return to the stockmarket again....
others will return to stocks, but not until confidence in the world economy has turned...
they dont have to pick the bottom, or wait for the tops

still plenty of bargains out there...you dont need booms to make the money for you....just slow consistent steady growth, year on year


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## Bolle (28 April 2010)

i've seen Henry Kaye's name thrown around in conjunction with it, more as a contributing factor than as a prognosticating wizard, mind you.


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## adobee (28 April 2010)

it would appear to be the boom come post a hot rental market .. approx 12-18 months ago the rental market was crazy (talking sydney) on the news with pictures of the lines out the door.. it cooled off sales started peaking.. Nov , Dec there was absolutely minimum stock levels for homes below $1m.. Jan - April HOT market ...  CBD market between 650 & 900k still seems pretty reasonable ...

_Signs of overheating property market potential end of the boom -_

Next interest rate rise
First episode of the block appearing on television
Return of moving house show with what is his name Keaton from the castle..

IMO


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## Pivotonian (29 April 2010)

adobee said:


> it would appear to be the boom come post a hot rental market .. approx 12-18 months ago the rental market was crazy (talking sydney) on the news with pictures of the lines out the door.. it cooled off sales started peaking.. Nov , Dec there was absolutely minimum stock levels for homes below $1m.. Jan - April HOT market ...  CBD market between 650 & 900k still seems pretty reasonable ...
> 
> _Signs of overheating property market potential end of the boom -_
> 
> ...




That would be Michael *Caton* ...


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## sam76 (29 April 2010)

Was Alex Keaton into property?


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## robots (3 May 2010)

hello,

pulled out my old research files and just cannot find anybody else who predicted this boom (of course the usual kings at ASF), but no others reports or articles

thankyou
robots


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## satanoperca (3 May 2010)

Hi,

I cannot believe there is not one person who predicted this latest boom in RE.

Incredible. Even the expects cannot even see the writing on the wall until it is written.

Cheers


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## robots (3 May 2010)

satanoperca said:


> Hi,
> 
> I cannot believe there is not one person who predicted this latest boom in RE.
> 
> ...




hello,

i know, amazing, thought Alan Kohler on the ABC would of had an article in the Eureka Report, nothing

then i thought DrDoom with all his expertise, but checked reports, nothing

right, checked The Age Investor supplement on Sunday, David Potts has to of got it, nup nothing

then I thought i will go to the one and only: Kochie, went to website, nothing

whats going on

thankyou
robots


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## moses (3 May 2010)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9911

:bananasmi


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## robots (3 May 2010)

hello,

well done Moses, 

thankyou
robots


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## nunthewiser (3 May 2010)

This bloke


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## trainspotter (3 May 2010)

*20% surge is recorded*

Update Capital city home prices rose by a record 20 per cent in the year to the end of March, giving the Reserve Bank more reason to lift interest rates tomorrow.

For the quarter alone, home prices rose 4.8 per cent, easing from a revised 5.1 per cent recorded for the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today. The annual pace compared with the revised 13.5 per cent gain for all of 2009, indicating house price increases are accelerating.

''I think the RBA will take notice of the acceleration in what is essentially house price inflation,'' Citi economist Josh Williamson said. 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-surge-record-20-20100503-u2im.html

Well done robots .......


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## drsmith (3 May 2010)

trainspotter said:


> ''I think the RBA will take notice of the acceleration in what is essentially house price inflation,'' Citi economist Josh Williamson said.



Is that soda water the RBA is carrying towards the punchbowl to dilute it a little more ?


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## kincella (4 May 2010)

oh well, I have been predicting a continual rise of a modest 10% pa for housing since I first started blogging back in 1999......
I have had other nicks up to 2005...but the same nick since then....so all my predictions and advice have been out there on the public record for the past 5 years....
but then I am not a supposed guru, nor earn any money from my calls, nor have any fame in that arena......
all I can say is, all of the so called guru's  keep making the wrong calls about the housing market.....but the majority of people take no notice anyway...hence the hundreds of thousands of realty transactions every year...by the buyers, upgraders, downgraders, and investors......
renovaters, and developers.....
compared to the very regular and vocal anti price brigade we find on these forums....is there 50 of them here...compared to say 5 very happy property people........
just factor in the same growth for the next 50 years....and you should have a good investment to pass onto the children


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## tech/a (4 May 2010)

People never learn

*DEMAND----SUPPLY*

If there is no or little demand in an area then prices drop/stay stat/or slowley rise.

If demand is strong then prices rise
If demand is very strong then prices rise higher than the average.

Its that simple its not complex.


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## Ageo (4 May 2010)

Tech i understand demand - supply.....

i.e our area has a shortage on homes and there isnt enough being built to keep up with the growth.

Problem, average home prices will get to the point where people cannot sustain to pay for it, so unless wages jump fast something needs to correct.


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## tech/a (4 May 2010)

Ageo said:


> Tech i understand demand - supply.....
> 
> i.e our area has a shortage on homes and there isnt enough being built to keep up with the growth.
> 
> Problem, average home prices will get to the point where people cannot sustain to pay for it, so unless wages jump fast something needs to correct.




This situtation is not new in places like the UK.
It may well become more common place here.

In the UK it is not unusual for many to have to wait (Renting) until their parents pass on before inheritance or "Old Money" is released. Normally in the way of a home.

*I dont know *of any written law that states that housing must be made affordable to the masses at all times and that if it isnt house prices must drop OR wages must be made high enough to allow affordability.

You will get a lot more "Family" owned homes where members of the family living in the home pitch in to buy it.
More syndicated buying particularly in Investment properties.

The trick most are missing is that prices will rise and are rising quicker than you can save.We can see from the Housing thread which dates back years that all those who waited are left still waiting and in a far worse position than when they first started waiting for better prices.

1 house means you keep abreast of price increases and inflation.
2 and if geared properly some profit likely
3+ now your talking.
There are many ways those without a large capital backing can take part in property its just some creative thinking thats required.

Either that or just give up and rent.---the option most take up.


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## dhukka (4 May 2010)

Maybe if we tweaked the title just a bit to read:

"Who actually predicted this Property bubble?" we might get a different response.


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## kgee (4 May 2010)

tech/a said:


> Either that or just give up and rent.---the option most take up.




I like the option of shifting to somewhere more affordable


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## tech/a (4 May 2010)

dhukka said:


> Maybe if we tweaked the title just a bit to read:
> 
> "Who actually predicted this Property bubble?" we might get a different response.




What is this question after---a name---someone to put up their hand and say I did?



kgee said:


> I like the option of shifting to somewhere more affordable




Creative thinking


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## professor_frink (4 May 2010)

Is anyone else that lives outside of the capital cities not even noticing anything at all?


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## nunthewiser (4 May 2010)

professor_frink said:


> Is anyone else that lives outside of the capital cities not even noticing anything at all?







Noticing a sheetload of new listings and older listings sitting stagnant in my area.

But hey never let the truth get in the way of a great story they say.


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## trainspotter (4 May 2010)

Stagnant to downward trend in the Midwest of WA. Henry Tax reform and Govt 40% tax on mining will certainly put the brakes on the developing of the Midwest iron ore prospects currently on the planning approval roundabout.


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## nunthewiser (4 May 2010)

wow man .......... we must be neihbours or somethin bro!


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## trainspotter (4 May 2010)

LOLOL ...... Hmmmmmmmmm .... let me think about that one ??


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## Tink (5 May 2010)

Good posts Tech, I agree.

Houses are still moving around here.


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## Uncle Festivus (5 May 2010)

Another thread on property - will somebody please give the right answer so we can all get some sleep?!

When someone sings his own praises, he always gets the tune too high.


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## Tink (5 May 2010)

tech/a said:


> ...
> *DEMAND----SUPPLY*
> 
> If there is no or little demand in an area then prices drop/stay stat/or slowley rise.
> ...




There's your answer, now you can get some sleep.


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## medicowallet (8 May 2010)

To the OP.

The real question should be:


WHO PREDICTED THE GOVERMENT WOULD BAIL OUT HOMEOWNERS WHO TOOK ON TOO MUCH RISK, AND BUILDERS WHO WERE NOT UNDER THREAT OF LOSING THEIR JOBS.


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## drsmith (8 May 2010)

medicowallet said:


> WHO PREDICTED THE GOVERMENT WOULD BAIL OUT HOMEOWNERS WHO TOOK ON TOO MUCH RISK, AND BUILDERS WHO WERE NOT UNDER THREAT OF LOSING THEIR JOBS.



And what else has it got up its sleeve to keep the property punchbowl on the table ?


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## kincella (9 May 2010)

the Vic state govnuts have $20,000 on offer to FHB for new homes......in their latest budget
I am guessing the feds will offer a similar incentive.....
then add in the developer bonuses that are sure to come....

whilst the drama with the resouces industry tax will produce long term damage control and lack of confidence in that industry.....
we will need to come up with an alternative to the  resources to generate jobs, income and taxes.....
the housing shortage...is the most obvious alternative , to generate jobs in the building industry


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## medicowallet (9 May 2010)

kincella said:


> the housing shortage...is the most obvious alternative , to generate jobs in the building industry




Yes, this is excellent to rebalance the current shortages.

However, blindly giving money to people to bid up prices further hardly achieves an equitable position. It does not train more tradesmen, nor incentivise employers to take on more apprentices. All it does is line the pockets of developers and subcontractors who know that there will never be a rainy day as long as the government's best interests lie in keeping property propped up.


There is no price competition in housing any more, nor in real estate. This has to stop, and there is a lot of fat to bring prices of houses down, both in land costs and in building. 

$20000 + $20000 from the fed govt. 

$40000 geared can easily artificially inflate prices and hence profits by $120000 to $160000.  It is poor policy designed around poor assumptions.

There would be plenty of work for builders if there wasn't a FHBG, they would just earn less. They would earn what the market forces determine, which is fair and equitable.


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## robots (9 May 2010)

hello,

yes and cars, produce, clothing would be cheaper if the government didnt subsidize farmers, car manufacturers, textile industry

the commodore would be 10k and the falcon 10k,, and they would still have plenty to build

whats it to you what a builder or developer or tradie earns, and to me what a school teacher, cleaner or child care worker earns

tall poppy is what it is all about, many cant handle the fact people have $ and they are jealous

thankyou
robots


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## Dowdy (9 May 2010)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> yes and cars, produce, clothing would be cheaper if the government didnt subsidize farmers, car manufacturers, textile industry




Actually farmers, car manufacturers, textile industry are subsidised by the government because it *is cheaper*.

 All those industries are now all overseas and I've got nothing wrong with that. It gives us cheaper goods through competition. If government would let those industry fail, as it should in a free market, then all that surplus labour force will be forced into new industry. And maybe one of that industry will be home construction....


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## robots (9 May 2010)

hello,

what ford and holden not making cars in Australia? no farmers left?

all overseas? just flicking through the car pages holden 38k, ford 38k

tall poppy

thankyou
robots


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## Dowdy (9 May 2010)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> what ford and holden not making cars in Australia? no farmers left?
> 
> ...




what do you mean 'tall poppy'.

i don't care if they got money. If you earn it, you deserve it.

I was just giving you a lesson in economics on how a free market economy should work, but i probably gave you too much credit that you could take in that minuscule amount of information


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## medicowallet (9 May 2010)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> yes and cars, produce, clothing would be cheaper if the government didnt subsidize farmers, car manufacturers, textile industry
> 
> ...




How many houses do we import or export?

If we make cars here, it means that we import less etc.

The other thing is, yes there would be jobs on the line without those subsidies. There would be no construction jobs on the line with the loss of the FHBG.


Tall poppy?  No thankyou.  I just think that supply and demand should determine what someone charges, and not geared government handouts.


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## robots (9 May 2010)

medicowallet said:


> How many houses do we import or export?
> 
> If we make cars here, it means that we import less etc.
> 
> ...




hello,

oh well please start a thread about the car industry, manufacturing, textile industry, farmers

no dont see that one on the forum 

and thats the issue, its all about the rich vs. poor, haves vs. have nots

kick off a thread about the above and see how the count goes,

thankyou
robots


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## Uncle Festivus (9 May 2010)

Robots predicted this property boom - thread closed


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## So_Cynical (9 May 2010)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> yes and cars, produce, clothing would be cheaper if the government didnt subsidize *farmers*, car manufacturers, textile industry
> 
> ...




Aussie farmers are subsidized ? robots care to link to something to back up this claim.


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## nunthewiser (9 May 2010)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Robots predicted this property boom - thread closed





thankyou


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## robots (9 May 2010)

hello,

no, no link So Cynical

no one else produces any proper link, the home buying grant has morphed into  a subsidy for developers, builders, tradies, banks, building suppliers, chow shops, etc etc etc

i was just throwing up the thread regarding the property boom back in Aug2009, similarly as a thread was thrown up regarding who predicted the GFC

cant anybody find names? only real estate agents?

thankyou
robots


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## medicowallet (9 May 2010)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> oh well please start a thread about the car industry, manufacturing, textile industry, farmers
> 
> ...




But that would be off topic.

I am just saying that no one could have predicted that the government was going to bail out the housing industry with grants.

I think the housing market would have fared well without the FHBG (and it would have been stronger now for it). It was unnecessary, it protected no jobs, and made houses less affordable for the people it is intending to help.

I for one have no vested interest in defending such poor policy, you seem to be defending it with whatever you can, so obviously you think that the housing market is so fragile that it cannot withstand competition and a free market.

If you are so terrified, I suggest you sell your house. I will keep all of mine, as I am not worried.


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## tech/a (9 May 2010)

medicowallet said:


> But that would be off topic.
> 
> I am just saying that no one could have predicted that the government was going to bail out the housing industry with grants.
> 
> ...




I can see your not in the building industry.

Sub divisions/Schools/Shopping centers/sports facilities
Fire brigade and Ambulance stations/Police all bi products of continued demand.

So the other alternative is not to help first home buyers with a hand out?
Investors like myself would be quite happy as our rentals will be in even greater demand and at higher rates.

The government will ALWAYS bail out the housing sector--the cost of not bailing it out is a far less attractive option for them.


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## So_Cynical (9 May 2010)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> no, no link So Cynical
> 
> ...



Or you could just say..oopps my bad, Aussie farmers aren't subsidised, they occasionally get drought relief and other payments via SS in exceptional circumstances..but most certainly are not subsidized like Nth American and Euro farmers.

Somehow i doubt you will receive your own investor of the year award for 2011


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## trainspotter (9 May 2010)

I have a vague recollection of explaining to the ASFers that I sold all of my share portfolio in August 2009 to place the lot into property (as well as start a building company) to make the most of this boom. Does this count?


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## medicowallet (9 May 2010)

tech/a said:


> I can see your not in the building industry.
> 
> Sub divisions/Schools/Shopping centers/sports facilities
> Fire brigade and Ambulance stations/Police all bi products of continued demand.
> ...




Houses would be built without the grant. There would still be demand, but that demand would be met with more realistic prices for everyone.

I agree, the handouts have made me a lot of money too. But since I have made my money, I have started to see the effects that my generation is having on the current "FHB" generation and, in the future, my children.

When I purchased my first home, I could actually buy it, and have a life as well, whilst still as an intern, single income family.  Nowadays there is no real hope of doing this.

If it wasn't for "assistance" like the fhbg ramping up prices, it would give future Australians the lifestyle and opportunities we had. That is what made it "sunshine and lollipops" for us.

Can anyone here honestly say that it is as easy to exist and prosper as it was for BB or even GenX? Of course not, but it seems few here are prepared to look at what caused the problem.


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## son of baglimit (9 May 2010)

who predicted the property boom ?

you mean current uptrend, or just the long term, sustained but still dramatic increase in inner city property prices ?

hands up all those that BOUGHT inner city property when it was in a depressed, high interest rate, zero confidence, full of unemployed/students/housing commission/low rent, and therefore resisted the urge to follow friends & family to the outer planets with their mcmansions, lack of services and minimum 3 cars per driveway, paying $1+ a litre of petrol for ever ?

a tin of paint, a shovel & awareness can go a long way.


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## Dowdy (10 May 2010)

tech/a said:


> I can see your not in the building industry.
> 
> So the other alternative is not to help first home buyers with a hand out?
> Investors like myself would be quite happy as our rentals will be in even greater demand and at higher rates.




The FHBG and low interest rate made buying a home more attractive and more expensive. That didn't help first home buyers, it did the opposite.

But if we remove the handout and raise interest rate it will make housing less attractive and more cheaper.


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## son of baglimit (10 May 2010)

Dowdy said:


> The FHBG and low interest rate made buying a home more attractive and more expensive. That didn't help first home buyers, it did the opposite.
> 
> But if we remove the handout and raise interest rate it will make housing less attractive and more cheaper.




SHHHHHH - not too loud dowdy, or it'll become political party policy !!!


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## Julia (10 May 2010)

Dowdy, perhaps you could offer your services to the government in an advisory capacity?  They could surely do with them.


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## medicowallet (10 May 2010)

Julia said:


> Dowdy, perhaps you could offer your services to the government in an advisory capacity?  They could surely do with them.




The dowdy review,  commissioned for $20million

result: scrap FHBG and negative gearing on investments and raise IR and let market forces determine house prices and shares.
Delivered to government 15 May 2010.

Government response: 15 November 2010 (opposition allowed to view it 15/11/10)

result: can't win any votes with this measure therefore we will implement what we liked in the report instead. This will strike a nice balance with our voters

: scrap negative gearing on shares and raise IR by negative media campaigns on banks increasing home loans, and diverting their margins to alternative products like margin loans and business loans.

Final result
: Kevin 10
: Increasing house prices therefore increased FHBG needed -- increased consumption and imports of plasmas and foreign built cars on drawdowns.
: Decreasing share prices - but all the companies have foreign shareholders, so it is good for the country.
: Decreased business investment and economic growth.


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## Dowdy (11 May 2010)

medicowallet said:


> The dowdy review,  commissioned for $20million
> 
> result: scrap FHBG and negative gearing on investments and raise IR and let market forces determine house prices and shares.
> Delivered to government 15 May 2010.
> ...




I'll just do what every politician does. 
Lie to get in and then implement what i want - remove FHBG, release land, put a time limit on land banks and incentives for developers to build, remove stamp duty. If the government wants to give money away, don't give it to the FHB, give it to developers to build more homes.

There's my 5 min solution. Now just need a PR team


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## trainspotter (11 May 2010)

Dowdy said:


> I'll just do what every politician does.
> Lie to get in and then implement what i want - remove FHBG, release land, put a time limit on land banks and incentives for developers to build, remove stamp duty. If the government wants to give money away, don't give it to the FHB, give it to developers to build more homes.
> 
> There's my 5 min solution. Now just need a PR team




Dowdy for PM. Gets my vote.


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