# How long will the new minority Government last?



## So_Cynical (7 September 2010)

Will be interesting to see people thoughts on how long this Labor/Green/independents alliance will last, personally i reckon there good to go the whole 3 years but im a political optimist and the whole "Lets all join hands and work together" thing gives me a warm gooey feeling. :1luvu:

Probably why 1 vote Tony never really had a chance...the independents just couldn't really see him at a love in.


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## basilio (7 September 2010)

One vote majority... A heart attack, a trip under  a bus, a scandal real or manufactured, a wooing of* one *disaffected party members and it's all over.

I suspect that the Coalition would be already working out how to push over the government by picking off one Labour member. Normally of course you wouldn't waste time with such tactics. No point. But now... The prize is power. 

It will be really interesting to see how the Gillard government attempts to keep discipline within the party and protect it's majority. Interesting times.

And of course until July next year the opposition can frustrate  the government through the Senate at will. *That *will be interesting to watch.


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## So_Cynical (7 September 2010)

lol i took to long to make the poll...hate that 20 minute thing sometimes.


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## wayneL (8 September 2010)

Timing will be important. The coalition will want to wait until Labor screws up, or starts erecting statues of Lenin (hyperbole you understand ) before pushing too hard.

They don't want to be seen as spoilers as they save Oz from another socialist experiment.


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## nulla nulla (8 September 2010)

I suspect there will be no big ticket changes put to the senate until the senate changes come through next year. It will be steady as she goes until they get into clear water.


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## nomore4s (8 September 2010)

Have added a poll.


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## Bushman (8 September 2010)

Imagine the fun at the next by-election! 

Some early predictions: 
- NBN will be very expensive and $43b has largely been pulled out of hat. 
- Oakshott/Windsor will come under increasing pressure from their conservative constituency and this will test their resolve for a 'stable gov't'. 
- You have friction from day 1 b/w Greens and Independents re climate change legislation. 
- Abbott will go hard and long at a wounded opponent, as he should! He should also have a field day, as the mantra of 'spend spend spend' by the coalition of the spenders places pressure on the budget deficit and inflation/interest rates. 
- The Labour factions will go into hibernation in awhile but will come into play as Gillard's polls start to slip due to affordability, deficits and the NBN 'white elephant'. 

Undoubtedly though the Oakshott/Windsor have given Gillard a foothold from which to save the Labor party.

Pass me the popcorn in about 6-12 months time when the honeymoon is over.


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## Logique (8 September 2010)

nomore4s said:


> Have added a poll.



Apparently the bookies are framing odds on an election by 31 Dec. But I think the value bet would be for this govt to go full term or very nearly so. The one thing the rainbow coalition do share is the desire to retain power.

I voted full term.


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## -Bevo- (8 September 2010)

Things off to a shakey start already?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/08/3005635.htm
*Mining tax back to haunt Labor*


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## sails (8 September 2010)

-Bevo- said:


> Things off to a shakey start already?
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/08/3005635.htm
> *Mining tax back to haunt Labor*




Thanks Bevo - and from that article:



> Speaking this morning, Mr Windsor said he had been under the impression the mining tax would be up for discussion.
> 
> He has indicated he is not happy about its exclusion and says he wants talks with Mr Swan.
> 
> "That's the first time I've heard of that," he told Radio National. "I thought it was going to be included in any discussions in relation to taxation and the Henry Review."




Windsor will have to get used to spins and backflips due to the recent history of the side he has chosen.  I doubt that Windsor wants an early election anymore than Labor / Greens so he might just find himself facing a few brick walls.

Have no idea how long before a new election.  There have been so many twists and turns, I wouldn't like to guess...


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## trainspotter (8 September 2010)

One of the best "Marriages of Convenience" I have witnessed in a long time. It will not be long before the wedding cake paralyses the country from the neck down. The golden handcuff will be thrown across the room along with the cutlery and the bags will be packed and thrown out on the lawn. 

The minors sitting on the cross benches will have their santa sack full of goodies to stuff down their collective electorates throats and the country will suffer under this melting pot of political idealism.

Reminds me why you only have one captain on a ship. When all else fails try doing what the captain suggested.


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## Mofra (8 September 2010)

wayneL said:


> They don't want to be seen as spoilers as they save Oz from another socialist experiment.



Ah yes, McCarthyism, Funny  

The biggest socialist in the lower house supported the coaliiton


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## Mofra (8 September 2010)

Logique said:


> Apparently the bookies are framing odds on an election by 31 Dec. But I think the value bet would be for this govt to go full term or very nearly so. The one thing the rainbow coalition do share is the desire to retain power.



Windsor is not standing for re-election next term, and Oakshotte will be very lucky to survive the Nationals hack job by the time the next election rolls around. Both will be keen to ensure the gummint stays in as long as possible.

Any change to coalition will need to happen with enough time to swear them in well before July 1 next year, as if Abbott can't negotiate with 4 independants he has buckley's chance against a Green-dominated senate.


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## IFocus (8 September 2010)

The ultimate for Abbott should he continue in the leadership would be an election close to a NSW state election. NSW will likely be a blood bath for Labor and so it should be pity the Liberals under O'Farrell  are basket cases to and not much better.


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## sorcar (8 September 2010)

I personally think that it will either be a very very short term or the complete full term - not the in between

If they cant control a minority government then it will show up very quickly... if they can.. then it will go the whole way.


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## wayneL (8 September 2010)

Mofra said:


> Ah yes, McCarthyism, Funny
> 
> The biggest socialist in the lower house supported the coaliiton




Nobody has pointed out the difference to you between a nutter and a socialist?


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## sails (8 September 2010)

Mofra said:


> Windsor is not standing for re-election next term, and Oakshotte will be very lucky to survive the Nationals hack job by the time the next election rolls around. Both will be keen to ensure the gummint stays in as long as possible.....




Mofra, I'm not sure that the nats in Lyne will need to do too much extra work.


Labor leaning people who voted for Oakeshott would either vote for Oakeshott again or vote labor.

Coalition leaning people who voted for him won't make that mistake again  and would be likely to vote National.

Even if Oakeshott's votes are evenly split down the middle as half favouring labor and half favouring coalition the numbers of primary votes could be as follows (rounded):

Oakeshott - 20,000 + preferences from Labor & greens = 35,000
Labor 11,500
Greens 3,500

Nationals 29,000 + 20,000 (disgruntled with Oakeshott) = 49,000

All hypothetical, but not impossible.


AEC figures as at today's date: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=579681
OAKESHOTT, Robert 	Independent  	40,067  	47.16%  	
LIPS, Frederik 	Labor 	11,456 	13.48% 	
GILLESPIE, David 	The Nationals 	29,214 	34.38% 	
WRIGHT, Barry 	Independent 	586 	0.69% 	
OXENFORD, Ian 	The Greens 	3,645 	4.29%


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## Whiskers (8 September 2010)

sails said:


> Have no idea how long before a new election.  There have been so many twists and turns, I wouldn't like to guess...




I'll have a pretty good guess... until the next by-election.

How many governments have served a full term without a by-election?

I think I even heard someone comment in the media that this (coalition) government is one heart attack away from over.

PS: I agree with basilio. The pressure will be on and the hound dogs will be looking harder than ever for any sign of a controversy... real heart attack times.


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## So_Cynical (8 September 2010)

nomore4s said:


> Have added a poll.




Thanks. 

---------------

Whatever happens, the important thing for all concerned will be to come out of this as a clean skin...any party or individual that gets the blame for causing the next election better have either a rock solid constituency or some sort of very sellable reason for ending it early.

While i think it will go all the way...im also very aware that there's a couple of dozen deal breakers that have to be very carefully worked thru and around and that's just not going to be easy, not business as usual.


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## sails (9 September 2010)

And the saga continues: *Rob Oakeshott and Wayne Swan collide on mining tax *



> LABOR'S alliance with the two rural independents has hit its first hurdle, with Rob Oakeshott demanding the mining tax be included in the government's proposed tax summit, despite Wayne Swan's refusal to allow the original super-profits tax to be discussed.


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## Mofra (9 September 2010)

wayneL said:


> Nobody has pointed out the difference to you between a nutter and a socialist?



Touche' - but I retort, good sir, that they are not mutually exclusive terms


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## Mofra (9 September 2010)

sails said:


> Mofra, I'm not sure that the nats in Lyne will need to do too much extra work.
> 
> 
> Labor leaning people who voted for Oakeshott would either vote for Oakeshott again or vote labor.
> ...



Fair points - one would expect a swing away from Oakeshott if voters are unhappy with his support for Gillard, although I say some of the swing will be tempered if the pork barrel for the country independants was particularly full. 

Given the swing away from major parties receiving the primary vote (95% in 1975 down to 82% in 2010) I would expect that people are far more likely to vote for an outcome rather than just on idealogical lines these days.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (9 September 2010)

Isn't there a seat that has been thrown into doubt? I can't remember the name of it and can't understand the AEC website (too many links).


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## sails (9 September 2010)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Isn't there a seat that has been thrown into doubt? I can't remember the name of it and can't understand the AEC website (too many links).




Snake, it's Corangamite.  Here's the link straight to the close seat page at AEC:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-15508-NAT.htm

With just over 95% of the vote counted for Corangamite I would think it unlikely to change now.  Labor are ahead in that seat by about 770 on the 2PP count.

I suppose the libs could ask for a recount though.  They would have nothing to lose and possibly an election to gain...


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## Happy (9 September 2010)

Independends will do anything it takes to last 3 years and grab as much as they get.


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## robusta (9 September 2010)

Happy said:


> Independends will do anything it takes to last 3 years and grab as much as they get.




I agree we have only just begun. Why would the independents let this opportunity go they will never again be in this position of power.


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## explod (9 September 2010)

No more than a few months.  That should have been a number for the pole.


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## noco (9 September 2010)

The cracks are starting to appear already. Can't wait September 28.


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## sails (9 September 2010)

noco said:


> The cracks are starting to appear already. Can't wait September 28.




haha Noco - maybe this is why some  labor supporters here are into "knock Abbott" and "knock opposition in general" mode in an effort to deflect from the cracks that are going on inside their favoured party...  

They don't seem to realise they won this thing by a whisker, but nevertheless, they won (for now).  Why are they not promoting the good things their party does (if there are any - lol) rather than pick holes in the other side.

Why not celebrate their victory instead of going out of their way to kick the opposition...

Could it be they fear another election sooner rather than later...


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## It's Snake Pliskin (9 September 2010)

sails said:


> Snake, it's Corangamite.  Here's the link straight to the close seat page at AEC:
> http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-15508-NAT.htm
> 
> With just over 95% of the vote counted for Corangamite I would think it unlikely to change now.  Labor are ahead in that seat by about 770 on the 2PP count.
> ...




Yes that was it. At the time I heard it Labour was considered out with it up in the air. Thanks for the link.


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## noco (10 September 2010)

sails said:


> haha Noco - maybe this is why some  labor supporters here are into "knock Abbott" and "knock opposition in general" mode in an effort to deflect from the cracks that are going on inside their favoured party...
> 
> They don't seem to realise they won this thing by a whisker, but nevertheless, they won (for now).  Why are they not promoting the good things their party does (if there are any - lol) rather than pick holes in the other side.
> 
> ...




Too true sails, these Labor hacks know only too well they on shakey ground and will certainly fear another election some time soon.

The Labor Party have a long history of diversion away from their problems. It's like giving a kid a lollie to stop him crying. You know take the mind off the real problem in the hope it goes away.


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## Logique (10 September 2010)

Hi Sails and Noco,
don't be so sure this latest push isn't so much anti-Opposition as pro-Turnbull. Seems conveniently timed, with Shadow Cabinet reshuffles at issue.


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## So_Cynical (25 April 2011)

We have passed the 6 months mark so 9 voters (20.45%) got it wrong, in fact the government is looking quite strong in my opinion, the alliance holding firm, hasn't really even been tested yet...the Govt would be an odds on bet to stay in power passed the 1 year mark i would reckon.


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## sptrawler (25 April 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> We have passed the 6 months mark so 9 voters (20.45%) got it wrong, in fact the government is looking quite strong in my opinion, the alliance holding firm, hasn't really even been tested yet...the Govt would be an odds on bet to stay in power passed the 1 year mark i would reckon.




Your spot on So_Cynical, they haven't been tested yet. This is mainly due to the fact they haven't done anything yet. But they can't just keep talking about things and achieving nothing, or conversely the only achievements they do have turning into disasters.
The carbon tax is turning into another mess. No news is good news for the N.B.N. 
With a budget in deficit and the cost of living, especially food and fuel, going through the roof. It doesn't give them a lot of room to move and leaves them very exposed to an external financial shock. 
If that happens it will be everyone for themselves, there will be no loyalty from the independents. Even the recipients of the handouts will be wishing they banked it instead of buying the plasmas.
Maybe no financial disaster will happen, however we are sailing in uncharted water.


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## Julia (25 April 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> We have passed the 6 months mark so 9 voters (20.45%) got it wrong, in fact the government is looking quite strong in my opinion,



The government looking quite strong? 
Have you missed the last few opinion polls?
If there were an election tomorrow they'd be thrown out in the biggest defeat for Labor federally for a very long time.

How can you be so in denial of reality?


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## So_Cynical (25 April 2011)

Julia said:


> How can you be so in denial of reality?




I'm following the example set by the ASF right 

----------------------

Like 1 vote Tony has a chance in hell of winning the next election...while the smartest bloke in the room (Turnbull) sits idly by, rejected by the right.


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## drsmith (25 April 2011)

Hell is what the current government is experiencing.


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## noco (26 April 2011)

drsmith said:


> Hell is what the current government is experiencing.




Ms. Gillard is running out of fingers to plug all the holes in the dyke. We could say she really does not know what she is doing.
Yes polls do come and go but unfortunately for Ms. Gillard her's is only going one way; south.



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...nd-so-do-leaders/story-e6frgd0x-1226044649356


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## Happy (27 April 2011)

If popularity or lack of could force new elections, then yes it would be over already, but we are dealing with real people who will do anything to cling to power.

They have power until next election, why change anything?

Possibly Labor machinery will swap her for some other first?

Maybe somebody with different sexual preferences, or different race, maybe different religion?


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## drsmith (27 April 2011)

noco said:


> Ms. Gillard is running out of fingers to plug all the holes in the dyke. We could say she really does not know what she is doing.
> Yes polls do come and go but unfortunately for Ms. Gillard her's is only going one way; south.
> 
> 
> ...



I'm curious to know why there wasn't a Newspoll published last week.


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## Julia (27 April 2011)

drsmith said:


> I'm curious to know why there wasn't a Newspoll published last week.



 I don't think they necessarily come out weekly do they?  Might be wrong.


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## drsmith (27 April 2011)

I thought they were fortnightly and on that basis would have expected one last week. All I saw then was a Newspoll poll on best leader.

I just want to see how fast the good ship ALP is sinking.


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## sails (27 April 2011)

Happy said:


> If popularity or lack of could force new elections, then yes it would be over already, but we are dealing with real people who will do anything to cling to power.
> 
> They have power until next election, why change anything?
> 
> ...




Does anyone know about Recall Elections?  The best I could find by googling is this PDF which is about NSW: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/pr...lElections/$File/Recall+Elections+E+Brief.pdf

Here's the first paragraph:



> In other jurisdictions Recall is a term used to describe a process whereby the electorate can petition to trigger a vote on the suitability of an existing elected representative to continue in office. In those jurisdictions where it operates, *Recall is seen as an important, directly democratic, tool for the electorate to remove from office those elected.*





Does anyone know if this provision exists federally?

Would be good if all faulty products could be recalled - politicians included..  Seems sad that we have to be inflicted with lies, debacle after debacle and the forced imposition of a highly controversial tax - and yet we seem powerless to do anything about it.


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## Happy (27 April 2011)

sails said:


> ...
> Would be good if all faulty products could be recalled - politicians included..  Seems sad that we have to be inflicted with lies, debacle after debacle and the forced imposition of a highly controversial tax - and yet we seem powerless to do anything about it.




Thought about method of matching promises with actions and having at least court to decide if jail for deception or stripping of generous Retirement Package for PM should apply.
(consisting of: Lifetime Gold Medicare card, indexed generous pension, secretary or two for life, gold pass air travel, government car with driver plus more and more)


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## noco (27 April 2011)

Cory Bernadi has outlined a great comparison of our enept Labor Government to the Roman Empire.

I thought this to be very fitting.


http://www.corybernardi.com/2011/04...ion-posted-6a00e5520b72ea8834015431f92e6a970c


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## ghotib (27 April 2011)

noco said:


> Cory Bernadi has outlined a great comparison of our enept Labor Government to the Roman Empire.
> 
> I thought this to be very fitting.
> 
> ...



Really? Bernadi misunderstands the original use of the phrase "bread and circuses" and makes a schoolboy howler in his reference to the Greeks. He very possibly thinks "enept" is an English word too. If this bignoting ignoramus is supposed to be an effective critic the government is safer than it deserves to be.  

Ghoti


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## IFocus (27 April 2011)

ghotib said:


> Really? Bernadi misunderstands the original use of the phrase "bread and circuses" and makes a schoolboy howler in his reference to the Greeks. He very possibly thinks "enept" is an English word too. If this bignoting ignoramus is supposed to be an effective critic the government is safer than it deserves to be.
> 
> Ghoti




And there is the is a great summary Ghoti, Labor are stumbling from one political fiasco to another and yet no sacked ministers? 

Effective opposition ppifff


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## drsmith (27 April 2011)

They sacked a sitting PM.

The way things are going, it may not be too long before the opposition have Julia Gillard's scalp to add as a trophy piece next to Kevin Rudd's.


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## noco (27 April 2011)

IFocus said:


> And there is the is a great summary Ghoti, Labor are stumbling from one political fiasco to another and yet no sacked ministers?
> 
> Effective opposition ppifff




Rudd and Gillard did not have the fortitude to sack a Minister because those Ministers who supposedly goofed there potfolios were under instruction from those two idiots to do what they were told to do. They dare not step out of line with Labor Party protocol. If they did, they would be outcasts. Should Chris Bowen be sacked for the debacle with asylum seekers?  No, because whose fault is it? Well, you whistle and I'll point.

Yes, and ex Prime Minister Rudd did get the sack and why, because according to Gillard he lost his way. Poor Julia, she does not know whether to go North, South, East or West.


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## Julia (27 April 2011)

IFocus said:


> And there is the is a great summary Ghoti, Labor are stumbling from one political fiasco to another and yet no sacked ministers?



For them to sack any minister would simply underline the failure in that portfolio.

They are, rather, hoping much of the electorate will be too busy worrying about their rising cost of living, the potential impost of a carbon tax etc, to focus too intently on individual failures.
Indeed, the failures are so many, actually pretty much everything they touch, that the electorate may even be becoming inured.


> Effective opposition ppifff



What does the opposition have to do with the government sacking its own ministers?
Imo the opposition is being very effective at present.  You can't expect them to take responsibility for actually sacking the many incompetents that constitute the Gillard government.  Be a bit realistic.


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## sails (28 April 2011)

drsmith said:


> I'm curious to know why there wasn't a Newspoll published last week.




Not a newspoll drsmith, but interesting report from Essential Media research:

http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/essential-report/

If you scroll down the page, it gives the attributes of all three parties.  Interesting that only about one in four people polled believes Labor is clear about what it stands for and only one in five believes Labor keeps promises...lol.  We are not alone...

Lots of other interesting data on that site with latest poll dated yesterday 27th April.  Gives a clear picture that Labor are losing ground, IMO.

When will Ms Gillard get it that she only leads a* minority* government and is not the time to lie to the people and bring in major, controversial taxes and "reforms".

Usually those major events are done with a majority win giving a clear mandate from the people on said reforms.  This so bizarre it would make a good movie if it weren't true.  And even more sickening because it is our country with which they play russian roulette.


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## So_Cynical (25 November 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> (25th-April-2011) We have passed the 6 months mark so 9 voters (20.45%) got it wrong, in fact the government is looking quite strong in my opinion, the alliance holding firm, hasn't really even been tested yet...the Govt would be an odds on bet to stay in power passed the 1 year mark i would reckon.




A little more than a year on from starting this thread and its now clear that the majority of poll voters got it wrong, in fact 53.71% got it wrong. 

Interesting that quite a few prominent members of the ASF right didn't actually make public their predictions...not that that's dishonest or weak in any way.
~


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## drsmith (25 November 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> A little more than a year on from starting this thread and its now clear that the majority of poll voters got it wrong, in fact 53.71% got it wrong.



They ain't there yet. 

Even if they do get there, they better enjoy it while it lasts because when the people get their say, Labor will be slaughtered. 

That much is certain.


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## So_Cynical (25 November 2011)

drsmith said:


> They ain't there yet.
> 
> Even if they do get there, they better enjoy it while it lasts because when the people get their say, Labor will be slaughtered.
> 
> That much is certain.




What...they are past the 1 year mark, past the 1st change over in the senate...plain sailing, but not for the disgruntled and Whinny.


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## drsmith (25 November 2011)

As I said, enjoy it while it lasts, because, for those devoted to the Labor cause, the time in political exile will be long and painful.


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## sails (25 November 2011)

drsmith said:


> As I said, enjoy it while it lasts, because, for those devoted to the Labor cause, the time in political exile will be long and painful.




Yes, I agree.  I would think some people voted out of hope...

At the very worst, this government's term expires on 27th September, 2013.  I thought it was from election date, but it is apparently timed from the time parliament first sits.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/11/future-election-dates.html


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## nulla nulla (26 November 2011)

14 Months into a full term (subject to the outcome of any bi-election in a closely held labor seat), the labor/green/independent government is pushing through the legislation. 

And now they have an increased majority because of ructions in the Liberal/National coalition turning on one of their own. 

All the rumour mongering about the ructions in the ranks and the resurgence of Rudd are just that, rumours. All the liberal spin doctors and push polling in the world is not going to make one iota of difference for the remaining 22 months.

It would be interesting to see the outcome of a bi-election in a closely held liberal/national party coalition seat. IMO that would give a better indicator of the swing against labor than the "independent" media polls.


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## Logique (26 November 2011)

ghotib said:


> Really? Bernadi misunderstands the original use of the phrase "bread and circuses" and makes a schoolboy howler in his reference to the Greeks. He very possibly thinks "enept" is an English word too. If this bignoting ignoramus is supposed to be an effective critic the government is safer than it deserves to be.
> Ghoti



Are you sure about that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses 
"'Bread and Circuses' (or bread and games) (from Latin: panem et circenses) is a metaphor for a superficial means of appeasement. In the case of politics, the phrase is used to describe the creation of public approval, not through exemplary or excellent public service or public policy, but through diversion, distraction, and/or the mere satisfaction of the immediate, shallow requirements of a populace."

- Yes its moved on from _panem et circenses_, but Sen Bernardi writes in year 2011.

http://www.corybernardi.com/2011/04...ion-posted-6a00e5520b72ea8834015431f92e6a970c
"Just as the Greeks left the Parthenon, the Romans the Colosseum and the Egyptians the Pyramids, the Gillard Government has spent scarce resources on monuments of their own."  

- It's a metaphor. Again, Sen Bernardi is writing in year 2011.

http://www.corybernardi.com/2011/04...ion-posted-6a00e5520b72ea8834015431f92e6a970c
"Cory Bernardi is a Senator for South Australia. Before entering parliament he was a member of the Australian Rowing Team, a publican, an investment portfolio manager and a venture capital entrepreneur.

Cory is the author of four books and has presented and spoken in five continents on politics, leadership, motivation, business and investment.

He recently founded the Conservative Leadership Foundation – a not-for-profit educational, research and training organisation dedicated to developing Australia’s future leaders."

- His CV doesn't scream 'ignoramus' to me. Politically 'impure' perhaps?


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