# Jobs, jobs, jobs!



## Lucky_Country (9 April 2009)

I see 35,000 jobs were lost in March unemployment rate now at 5.7% where will it end up at ?

All this stimulus money and still jobs being lost what will the unemployment rate be when the stimulus money dries up and what effect will it have on the real economey ?

The FHB grant expires in June and that bubble in the first home buyers market will burst I fear the worst is yet to come.


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## moXJO (9 April 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*

Already roughly 8% where I am.


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## MrBurns (9 April 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*

Will be 10% at least , been saying that all along.


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## Lucky_Country (9 April 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*

What timeline are we talking Im thinking along the 9.5% by the end of 09-10 financial year.

The worry I see is mortgage defauls will get out of control and house prices will fall in the region of 20%


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## Aussiejeff (9 April 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*



Lucky_Country said:


> What timeline are we talking Im thinking along the 9.5% by the end of 09-10 financial year.
> 
> The worry I see is mortgage defauls will get out of control and house prices will fall in the region of 20%




Please, don't worry yourself.

KRuddCo Pty Ltd (tm) will have it all in hand.

Under control.

No sweat!


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## Lucky_Country (9 April 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*



Aussiejeff said:


> Please, don't worry yourself.
> 
> KRuddCo Pty Ltd (tm) will have it all in hand.
> 
> ...




Umm not sure about that in fact I think they may make the matter alot worse !!!

I dread to think what the national debt will be by the end of their spending spree then if the economey turns sour again where will they find anymore money from ?

FHB grant is just an accident waiting to happen the buyers could really be in trouble there.

No wonder the airhostess was in tears ahhhh


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## MrBurns (9 April 2009)

34,700 Australians lost their jobs in March - according to Crikey


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## Sean K (9 April 2009)

If you're not good enough, then you don't deserve one!

I haven't had a job in 5 years.



:


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## investorpaul (9 April 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*



Lucky_Country said:


> What timeline are we talking Im thinking along the 9.5% by the end of 09-10 financial year.
> 
> The worry I see is mortgage defauls will get out of control and house prices will fall in the region of 20%




I think you will be pretty close with the figure of 9.5%, a couple more months and it really will start hitting the fan.

People out there are still saying "dont worry its still only 5.2, 5.7%" these are the people who will be most affected when it hits 8.5 to 9.5%, there will be alot of FHBuyers and people who still use their credit card like cash who get caught up in the mess. 

More pain ahead, its just a matter of time.

Furthermore these are the people who think Rudd is a genius, they look at him and go wow:
- I got $900
- I got a first home buyers grant
- His building a new broadband network
- his doing up schools, hospitals and infrastructure.

What they dont realise is that they will/and are going to pay for it.

They talk about the need for financial literacy to be taught at school, they should really teach how to understand government policy and how nothing is free in life.


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## Pappon (9 April 2009)

Totally agree on that, the $900 handout is taking our country into debt to hand this out it has to be paid back at some stage and by whom? Us the taxpayers so for those that think the stimulus package is a good think you'll pay it back *10 fold*!


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## robots (9 April 2009)

hello,

yeah man we all finished, gone, stuffed, 

thankyou
robots


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## Julia (9 April 2009)

Pappon said:


> Totally agree on that, the $900 handout is taking our country into debt to hand this out it has to be paid back at some stage and by whom? Us the taxpayers so for those that think the stimulus package is a good think you'll pay it back *10 fold*!






investorpaul said:


> I think you will be pretty close with the figure of 9.5%, a couple more months and it really will start hitting the fan.
> 
> People out there are still saying "dont worry its still only 5.2, 5.7%" these are the people who will be most affected when it hits 8.5 to 9.5%, there will be alot of FHBuyers and people who still use their credit card like cash who get caught up in the mess.
> 
> ...



Agreed.

Professor Warwick MacGibbon, Reserve Bank member, was on the 7.30 Report this evening.  It was interesting to hear him say that he was not in favour of the cash handouts.  That should give the Rudd government pause for thought.


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## Lucky_Country (9 April 2009)

Kevin 07 is more worried about popularity polls than national accounts.

The $41 billion on the NBN is just going to take years to pay off with no business plan whatsoever.

It our hard money and we need to justify the spending.

$100 billion debt and a ressesion but we will have loft insulation !!!!


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## Uncle Festivus (10 April 2009)

Apparently it doesn't matter if people don't have a job. All that matter's is if the stock market is going up - mission accomplished - again! 'Going forward' the market is pricing in good times again with the 'second half recovery'? People get real, don't listen to the facts, the market bottom has been passed, onwards & upwards again. Back to the Ostrich Bull Market.


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## Pappon (10 April 2009)

Look out for the next hand out when election time comes POTENTIAL BREAKOUT profit target $900!!! You heard me call it hear first!! LOL


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## Smurf1976 (10 April 2009)

If you're going to stimulate the economy with handouts then there's two real choices:

1. Bail out the massive private debts incurred over the past few years by handing cash to taxpayers. That enables consumers to carry on spending on imported goods thus increasing foreign debt and ultimately requiring another bailout when credit is maxed out again.

2. Spend on productive infrastructure that does nothing in the short term to ease the pain for voters but produces employment for some and a long term increase in national wealth.

Personally I'd prefer option 2. Sadly, many Aussies are dumb enough to vote for anyone promising option 1.

Politically, Howard transferred debt from government to individuals and Rudd's reversing the process. Labor's roughly as bad as the Liberals on this one since neither approach does anything to increase national wealth in the long term about. Shuffling money about isn't productive industry.

We're now paying the price for three decades of economic ideology that largely didn't work. We privatised, it stuffed up catastrophically and now we're nationalising the consequences. It would have been cheaper to not have undertaken the whole money shuffling exercise in the first place, focussing instead on productive industry that actually creates wealth. You know, the very thing we let go to ruin whilst arguing about who ought to own the gas pipes or build a road and who ought to hold this country's massive debts. I'd rather see the debts paid off than spend 3 decades arguing about whose name is on the card.


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## kincella (10 April 2009)

interesting article out today...report by the Australian Institute...about 11.7% unemployment.....the AI report shows there are a further 710,000 people who want to work,***** but are not actively looking for work...they claim to be carers, housekeepers etc...
the criteria for the ABS report is that to claim to be unemployed...****one must be actively looking for work....
oh and the ABS is a survey of 23,000 households....and the figures are then estimated for the total population.....
so how do you feel now...is it 5.7 or 11.7% unemployed.....
my question is why are 710,000 people wanting to work...but are not looking for work...maybe its how the question was presented to them....
eg; could you be bothered waking up on time,,,travelling to work, working 8 hours for a minimum 200,000 a year.....they probably would say yes....
but since their chances of earning even 50,000 are slim...they do not bother...and there is another one supporting them anyway.....
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25314387-31037,00.html


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## bluelabel (10 April 2009)

So what is this 5.7% based upon.  Doesnt the government class someone as being in work as working 4-5 hours a week.  You surely can't class these people as employed.



> the criteria for the ABS report is that to claim to be unemployed...****one must be actively looking for work....




Having worked for job network not so long ago, this is a crock too.  All you have to do to be "activly looking for work" is rock up to appointments.
They should change the stats to people who rock up to job network providers are 5.7% (and yes, rock up is the most appropriate term)

:bier:

blue


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## Uncle Festivus (10 April 2009)

Smurf for PM campaign 

Common sense & logic takes a very distant 2nd place to myopic money shuffling finance & political bureaucracy kingdom builders with their sights firmly on the next bonus or the next election. We need 10, 20, 30 years plans.

In that sense democracy fails in that we don't have a real say in things as it really comes down to what demands are made by 2 senators and or whatever the party line is - there is no conscious voting of a real democracy. 

We have the means to have a direct say right now, but the powers that be would rather walk over shards of glass than to divest real democracy to the people?


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## Aussiejeff (10 April 2009)

bluelabel said:


> So what is this 5.7% based upon.  *Doesnt the government class someone as being in work as working 4-5 hours a week.*  You surely can't class these people as employed.
> 
> Having worked for job network not so long ago, this is a crock too.  All you have to do to be "activly looking for work" is rock up to appointments.
> They should change the stats to people who rock up to job network providers are 5.7% (and yes, rock up is the most appropriate term)
> ...




Nope. Not even close. As I have previously quoted in another post somewhere, it is *only 1 hour per week* to qualify as "employed" and thus not become an "unemployed" statistic! 

You can find their definitions in the the Bureau of Stats website. 

Ridiculous, ain't it?


aj


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## dhukka (10 April 2009)

kincella said:


> interesting article out today...report by the Australian Institute...about 11.7% unemployment.....the AI report shows there are a further 710,000 people who want to work,***** but are not actively looking for work...they claim to be carers, housekeepers etc...
> the criteria for the ABS report is that to claim to be unemployed...****one must be actively looking for work....
> oh and the ABS is a survey of 23,000 households....and the figures are then estimated for the total population.....
> so how do you feel now...is it 5.7 or 11.7% unemployed.....
> ...




The abs should at least present alternative measures of employment as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics does. For the US, U3 is the most commonly cited figure for unemployment, however they publish other broader measures. 

Although U3 is the number that is repeated ad nauseam by media morons, it is just an artifact of the Clinton era when they decided to exclude marginally attached workers from the calculation. U6 includes marginally attached workers, as seen below, U6 is closing in on 16% in the US. When you hear comparisons saying that current unemployment of 8.5% is nowhere near the 25% of the Great Depression it is a false comparison. U6 is a better measure and it is on track to hit 20% in the next 12 - 18 months.

The abs should follow the lead of the BLS and print alternative unemployment measures to give us a better idea of the true nature of unemployment and underemployment.


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## Aussiejeff (10 April 2009)

dhukka said:


> The abs should at least present alternative measures of employment as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics does. For the US, U3 is the most commonly cited figure for unemployment, however they publish other broader measures.
> 
> Although U3 is the number that is repeated ad nauseam by media morons, it is just an artifact of the Clinton era when they decided to exclude marginally attached workers from the calculation. U6 includes marginally attached workers, as seen below, U6 is closing in on 16% in the US. When you hear comparisons saying that current unemployment of 8.5% is nowhere near the 25% of the Great Depression it is a false comparison. U6 is a better measure and it is on track to hit 20% in the next 12 - 18 months.
> 
> *The abs should follow the lead of the BLS and print alternative unemployment measures to give us a better idea of the true nature of unemployment and underemployment.*




Agree totally, dhukka.

Good post.


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## kincella (10 April 2009)

quick survey....just say you lose your job...would you be prepared to work at safeway, or mcdonalds for about 10 ph...to keep you home and family going, or would you rather try living on the dole..single person about 450 pf

I know some people who believe they are too good for that sort of work even in the boom times....lots of jobs not good enough for them

now even though I have a passive income and work self employed part time....I would go to work for about 20 ph if needed to sustain my lifestyle


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## tommymac (10 April 2009)

kincella said:


> quick survey....just say you lose your job...would you be prepared to work at safeway, or mcdonalds for about 10 ph...to keep you home and family going, or would you rather try living on the dole..single person about 450 pf
> 
> I know some people who believe they are too good for that sort of work even in the boom times....lots of jobs not good enough for them
> 
> now even though I have a passive income and work self employed part time....I would go to work for about 20 ph if needed to sustain my lifestyle




Work is work and money is money. I would do what is necessary and no job is below me.

I have heard some ex corporate managers have become drivers for Dominoes.


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## Smurf1976 (10 April 2009)

kincella said:


> quick survey....just say you lose your job...would you be prepared to work at safeway, or mcdonalds for about 10 ph...to keep you home and family going, or would you rather try living on the dole..single person about 450 pf
> 
> I know some people who believe they are too good for that sort of work even in the boom times....lots of jobs not good enough for them



With the exception of working with things likely to kill me (eg asbestos etc) I'd do anything.

I spend most of my working time Monday to Friday in the office and the rest tinkering with electrical / electronic things.

Then I work one day most weekends on the roads with shovel and jack hammer. I'll continue that until either the opportunity disappears or my debts have been reduced to zero. Sometimes I do both days but usually there isn't enough work.

McDonalds? Coles / Woolies? No probs if I didn't have a higher paying job I'd quite happily do that or just about anything else.


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## tommymac (7 May 2009)

I had a look at the unemployment data that was released today.

I noticed that the sample data used covers only 0.24% of the population. However 12 months ago the sample covered 0.45% of Australia's population.

Two questions for all you statistic gurus. 

How reliable are these figures to determine the actual population that is unemployed? and 

How comparable is the current rate to 12 months ago?

Cheers


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## Soft Dough (7 May 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*



Aussiejeff said:


> Please, don't worry yourself.
> 
> KRuddCo Pty Ltd (tm) will have it all in hand.
> 
> ...




I think his hand will eventually be stilled when Australia's credit rating begins to suffer ( and obviously that is why he is taxing the high income earners more )

I am going for between 9 and 10% unemployment, but hope it goes to 12-14%.


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## Julia (7 May 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*



Soft Dough said:


> I think his hand will eventually be stilled when Australia's credit rating begins to suffer ( and obviously that is why he is taxing the high income earners more )
> 
> I am going for between 9 and 10% unemployment, but hope it goes to 12-14%.



Why do you hope it goes higher?


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## Soft Dough (7 May 2009)

*Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!*



Julia said:


> Why do you hope it goes higher?




1. I think Australians need a reality check. It should not be so easy to make money, and a fall int he housing market will lead to more reasonable risk assessment when people borrow huge amounts of money.

This will be a benefit for the future strength of investment. It will temper Gen X and Y for preparation for other real challenges.

My culturally acceptable reason / explanation

2. So that prices of everything drop and I can use my cash reserves to pounce on other people's stupidity and make a fortune.

My culturally unacceptable reason explanation ( well according to the hypocrites it is anyway )


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## Beej (7 May 2009)

tommymac said:


> I had a look at the unemployment data that was released today.
> 
> I noticed that the sample data used covers only 0.24% of the population. However 12 months ago the sample covered 0.45% of Australia's population.
> 
> ...




According to the ABS release notes: The 95% confidence interval for the -0.3% change in the unemployment rate is -0.7% and 0.1%.

Due to the smaller sample size, these confidence intervals are probably about twice as wide as they used to be. Still, even with that spread it is almost certain (ie ~95% probability) that the rate of unemployment was flat to down in this past month.

Overall a very encouraging bit of economic data for those of us who hope for the best outcome for the local economy in these difficult times. I can't believe that there really are people who actually wish for high unemployment!! You have no idea what you are wishing for.

Cheers,

Beej


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## Mr J (7 May 2009)

I agree with Softdough for the need of financial tough love. If we are to learn, we're most likely to learn after experiencing downside. Gen X, and especially Gen Y, are in great position to learn about financial responsibility, and those lessons could carry though 40-50 years of power. Unfortunately, I don't think it will make much difference, as lessons are usually discarded when times become good again.

That said, I like financial irresponsibility as long as it doesn't bring down the system. It creates opportunity for those that are responsible.


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## aleckara (7 May 2009)

Beej said:


> Overall a very encouraging bit of economic data for those of of us who hope for the best outcome for the local economy in these difficult times. I can't believe that there really are people who actually wish for high unemployment!! You have no idea what you are wishing for.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




I think the main people who are wishing for it are the people like I said in a previous post on another thread are people that aren't in the housing market or know that they won't enjoy the above inflation returns enjoyed by many for the last 30 years and be locked in at the current high prices. I can understand their sentiment; affordability should never be calculated on how much you can borrow. Rudd with the FHBG stopped house prices from falling pretty successfully by further withdrawing on the nation's credit card which of course will be handed down to future generations who didn't get the benefit of the debt inflating their assets (in fact they will have to pay more for them).

A lot of people were probably hoping unemployment went up as it was the only thing that could lower house prices. Looks like the government wins again.


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## Lucky_Country (7 May 2009)

I think the end of the job losses is far from over.

The rise in employment today is maybe due to such a big fall in the previous months data and we are finding a level to follow.

Still 12 months of job losses left imo.


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## alwaysLearning (7 May 2009)

Lucky_Country said:


> I think the end of the job losses is far from over.
> 
> The rise in employment today is maybe due to such a big fall in the previous months data and we are finding a level to follow.
> 
> Still 12 months of job losses left imo.




yeah, far from over. I agree.


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## MrBurns (7 May 2009)

The figures must be distorted somehow, people are being sacked every day not employed.


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## Beej (7 May 2009)

Lucky_Country said:


> I think the end of the job losses is far from over.
> 
> The rise in employment today is maybe due to such a big fall in the previous months data and we are finding a level to follow.
> 
> Still 12 months of job losses left imo.






alwaysLearning said:


> yeah, far from over. I agree.






MrBurns said:


> The figures must be distorted somehow, people are being sacked every day not employed.




You are all probably right - but the slower the rise the better IMO.

PS: Anecdotes:  I know several people in Sydney who have been laid off jobs (late last year) - but they have all managed to find new jobs by Feb this year. I know one person in Brisbane who got laid off and has not yet found a new one, however his partner runs a successful business which is still doing very well so he is fine.

Cheers,

Beej


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## lusk (7 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> The figures must be distorted somehow, people are being sacked every day not employed.




Some company's when they announce redundancy's may also take a few months before they actually wind up work and become unemployed.


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## Uncle Festivus (7 May 2009)

Time will tell what the heck it all means?? 


> "It's bad form to disbelieve a data point that doesn't fit with your own view. But I'm going to do that -- I don't believe today's number," said Gerard Minack, economist at Morgan Stanley.
> "I think the leading indicators, the anecdotes, the announcements are right: jobs are being lost," he added.





> The fall in Australian unemployment should be taken with a "large grain of salt," as the data doesn't match evidence from the broader economy, said Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Bank.
> There is a high chance that the April employment data represents a statistical aberration, Redican said. "You do have to really question whether this is a one off monthly aberration."


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## dhukka (7 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Time will tell what the heck it all means??




As always one month's data does not make a trend. The trend data clearly shows unemployment rising and jobs being lost, as does all the leading indicators of employment. 

This is not the first time we've seen a sharp u-turn in the data, it happened twice just before and during the early 90's recession. More here


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## Timmy (8 May 2009)

_"It's bad form to disbelieve a data point that doesn't fit with your own view. But I'm going to do that -- I don't believe today's number," said Gerard Minack, economist at Morgan Stanley.
_

Good find Uncle.  I am going to paraphrase it and say it is probably not good form either to disbelieve a data point that DOES fit with my own view (which is that the Australian economy is not in as bad a shape as the consensus would have), but yeah, yesterday's figures are not credible.




dhukka said:


> As always one month's data does not make a trend. The trend data clearly shows unemployment rising and jobs being lost, as does all the leading indicators of employment.
> 
> This is not the first time we've seen a sharp u-turn in the data, it happened twice just before and during the early 90's recession. More here



Nice graph and points thank dhukka.


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## Aussiejeff (9 July 2009)

Time to wheel out that olde hoary chestnut so beloved of pollies in OZ - JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!!!

Here's today's tasty tidbit before the totally expected "unexpected fall in unemployment" is announced by a beamingly blissful Julia Blowhard.



> [size=+1]*ANZ slashes another 248 jobs*[/size]
> Mark Hawthorne
> July 9, 2009
> 
> ...



http://business.theage.com.au/business/anz-slashes-another-248-jobs-20090708-ddf8.html

Oh, so what happened to the preferred policy of shortening working hours rather than sacking valued employees? Am I missing something? *droll*



aj


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## mazzatelli1000 (9 July 2009)

Shortening work hours
But you still have to do the extra hours to finish the job off at REDUCED pay
So in the end you are really working the same hours for less pay

Makes me glad I left the pencil pushing business a while ago


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## Aussiejeff (9 July 2009)

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised given the opening day of the Ashes if the _Sheik Of Tweak _ hisself popped up on our idiot boxes courtesy of the ABS (that's right - Absolute BS) to bowl us eejits a few wrong 'uns, googleys, flippers & *mystery bollocks* concerning the imaginary unemployment rate.

Oooh, I can hear maiden Blowhard beseeching now...

"Warrrrneeeee, Warrrrneeeee, Warrrneeeee...."


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## Aussiejeff (9 July 2009)

... fergot to add...

at least Warrrneeee would be able to deliver the "auspicious great news" with a believable poker face!!


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## gfresh (9 July 2009)

It'll be sure to be the wrongun .. boom tish


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## gfresh (9 July 2009)

And everybody 'ooos' over the wonky "less than expected" ball, then resumes their standard positions.. 

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0?OpenDocument

Can't hide the fact that it's still on a steep curve up, and could be a couple of years until we reach peak unemployment.. 2011 ? 

Next strong economic growth - 2015? Then again you've got baby boomers really hitting retirement en-mass then, maybe a lot poorer than they thought they would be.. maybe not?


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## Aussiejeff (9 July 2009)

gfresh said:


> And everybody 'ooos' over the wonky "less than expected" ball, then resumes their standard positions..




LOL

As confidently forecarsed....

Turns out maiden Julie bowled them unemployed stats over with a down 'n dirty _"mully-grubber"_!

Mmmmmm. Sniff those Green Shoots, man.....


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## Gamblor (9 July 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Time to wheel out that olde hoary chestnut so beloved of pollies in OZ - JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!!!
> 
> Here's today's tasty tidbit before the totally expected "unexpected fall in unemployment" is announced by a beamingly blissful Julia Blowhard.
> 
> ...




Maybe the 300 million they're going to lose has something to do with it


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## Aussiejeff (10 September 2009)

Hahaha! 

Today's "official" Oz Unemployment Rate remains STEADY at 5.8% -  a GREAT VICTORY for the MEGA-STIMULUS!!!

Or, is it?

Smoke & mirrors, folks.... smoke & mirrors.....

Full time jobs plummet....
Part time hirings plummet......
+15yrs old Labour Force size plummets.....

BUT

Unemployment Rate stays the SAME!

Go figure, Mr Magoo..... I smell a rat....


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## boofhead (10 September 2009)

Rat? Politically well structured method of making a figure.

23,000 people or so are used for the survey size. Also participation rates are falling too.

Many of us know there are people that are unemployed but do not seek (or not eligible) unemployment benefits. Are various pensions used?

Flexible workforces (we all want the insecurity of not knowing how long we will be employed or how many hours per week we will get) seems to be winning. Companies can adjust better. Major consequence is under employment. Centrelink figures released recently shows how much worse the situation is.


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## Happy (10 September 2009)

1 hour of paid employment per week makes you employed person


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## dhukka (10 September 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Hahaha!
> 
> Today's "official" Oz Unemployment Rate remains STEADY at 5.8% -  a GREAT VICTORY for the MEGA-STIMULUS!!!
> 
> ...





Nothing confusing Jeff, just the way the numbers are constructed. It looks confusing because on the one hand you have:

a decrease of *27,100* in employment, but on the other 
a decrease of *-2,100* in unemployment

So the logical question is:

If 27,100 jobs were lost, how could there be a reduction in the number of people unemployed? 

Simple, a decrease in the number of people looking for work of *29,200*, which as you can see is the sum of the two numbers above. Less people have jobs but that is offset by the number of people looking for jobs. 

Note that if the labour force had stayed flat, the unemployment rate would have been *6.0%* in August. 

Also part-time jobs actually hit new highs in August whilst *221,700* full-time jobs have been lost since the peak in July 2008.


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## Uncle Festivus (10 September 2009)

Which is worse?

200k jobs lost in 1 month in a population of 300M or,
30k jobs lost in 1 month in a population of 23M?


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## Beej (10 September 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Which is worse?
> 
> 200k jobs lost in 1 month in a population of 300M or,
> 30k jobs lost in 1 month in a population of 23M?




How about 600k/month out of 300M, WITHOUT the loss of full time jobs being replaced by part-time jobs even, like we have seen in AU. This is where the US was 6 months ago remember; however you cut it we are far better off here....

PS: Dhukka - good explanation of the stats and very interesting chart - thanks!

Cheers,

Beej


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## boofhead (10 September 2009)

Then that comparison of Oz vs USA now and comapred to USA a few months ago makes it look like USA is more progressed along and closer to the rise as Australia is losing a greater portion now.

Somehow politicians are using it as a partial positive instead of how bad things are. Money will tighten some more now.


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## dhukka (11 September 2009)

boofhead said:


> Then that comparison of Oz vs USA now and comapred to USA a few months ago makes it look like USA is more progressed along and closer to the rise as Australia is losing a greater portion now.




That may be the case, however we have not seen anywhere near the extent of job losses in Australia as opposed to the US and I doubt we will even come close.

Consider that from the peak in December 2007, the US economy has shed *-5%* of the workforce. In Australia we have shed *-0.4%* or *53,700* jobs from the peak in October 2008. If we were to match the US decline, our economy would have to shed approximately *542,000* jobs. 

However, just looking at the net job losses is misleading because if full-time jobs are replaced by part time jobs then people are working less and thus have less income. So to measure the true extent of decline in the Australian labour market the best indicator is 'Hours Worked'. 

Hours worked peaked in July 2008 and has fallen *-3.5%*. As you can see from the chart below we are tracking a little worse than we did in the 2000 -02 experience but not as badly as the early 90's. What it also shows is that we have not bottomed. I would keep an eye on hours worked as the best indicator of labour market weakness.


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## Uncle Festivus (11 September 2009)

Beej said:


> How about 600k/month out of 300M, WITHOUT the loss of full time jobs being replaced by part-time jobs even, like we have seen in AU. This is where the US was 6 months ago remember; however you cut it we are far better off here....
> 
> PS: Dhukka - good explanation of the stats and very interesting chart - thanks!
> 
> ...




I guess we are _far better off_, as long as you are not one of the 1000 people a day losing their full time job, and having to get a job at Macca's to pay off their house loan? 

It was interesting to see the politicians um & ar'ing when asked about the number of full time jobs disappearing, 50% more than last month, but then they quickly reverted to rote to exclaim 'but, the unemployment rate remains unchanged'

Perhaps you should be in politics too if you believe this is a good trend?


----------



## boofhead (11 September 2009)

Nice graph.

Too much emphasis is placed on the unemployment figure. Hours worked is helpful. Maybe it should also be used with Centrelink figures too. I know there are plenty that are not working and not getting paid by Centrelink but would like to work.


----------



## Ato (12 September 2009)

kincella said:


> quick survey....just say you lose your job...would you be prepared to work at safeway, or mcdonalds for about 10 ph...to keep you home and family going, or would you rather try living on the dole..single person about 450 pf
> 
> I know some people who believe they are too good for that sort of work even in the boom times....lots of jobs not good enough for them
> 
> now even though I have a passive income and work self employed part time....I would go to work for about 20 ph if needed to sustain my lifestyle




This is slightly off topic, I guess, but as a reply:

I dunno. Let's say I lose my current job at middle age. Then the only thing I could find was paying half or less. Well I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons to continue living. 

It's not about doing a job that's below me. Let's say I was single, middle aged, no children. I lose my job, and as a consequence my house. I can only find work that barely allows me to live hand to mouth. And there is no forseeable way out of that existence, and no way that I could save for the time, fast approaching, when I was too old & feeble to work. Why continue with it? Wouldnt putting the proverbial gun to mouth be preferable to such an existence?

(Please note that currently I *do* have a reason to live and I'm not suicidal  I'm just ruminating on hypotheticals  )


----------



## Happy (12 September 2009)

Ato said:


> This is slightly off topic, I guess, but as a reply:
> 
> I dunno. Let's say I lose my current job at middle age. Then the only thing I could find was paying half or less. Well I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons to continue living.
> 
> ...






Just had a similar thought when I saw on TV fellow who decided to be homeless for 3 days or something like that.

He met few real homeless people and few other people who help homeless and they all said that usually there was loss of job (for various reasons – just loss of job, loss of job because of alcohol / drug abuse, because of gambling or because of mental issues).

Then came depression and often sense of life was questioned, sometimes followed with exit decision.

Personally I don’t think there is much else to do when depression strikes and there is not much help around.

Just looking at cold hard facts: every unemployed / depressed / homeless person is a spare person that will not be greatly missed if gone, sounds almost inhumanely, but true.

Some break back through barrier of hopelessness, but most don’t.


----------



## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

Ato said:


> I dunno. Let's say I lose my current job at middle age. Then the only thing I could find was paying half or less. Well I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons to continue living.




As long as you're working doing something, anything,  opportunities will open up to you , your brain keeps working, it's retirement that does the damage.


----------



## Ato (12 September 2009)

MrBurns said:


> As long as you're working doing something, anything,  opportunities will open up to you




Not necessarily. I know a few people who have been destitute for years, and frankly I wonder where they find the will to keep going... I doubt I would have continued to endure if the shoes were on my feet (or in such cases, sometimes shoes are a luxury one has to scavenge for).


----------



## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

Ato said:


> Not necessarily. I know a few people who have been destitute for years, and frankly I wonder where they find the will to keep going... I doubt I would have continued to endure if the shoes were on my feet (or in such cases, sometimes shoes are a luxury one has to scavenge for).




Get a lawn mower and put an ad in the local paper.

AND (and here's the good bit) be on time every time and do a better job than the competition, you will get referrals and before long you will be franchising.

Just give people what they want and you'll always be on top of the game.


----------



## Ato (12 September 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Get a lawn mower and put an ad in the local paper.
> 
> AND (and here's the good bit) be on time every time and do a better job than the competition, you will get referrals and before long you will be franchising.
> 
> Just give people what they want and you'll always be on top of the game.




You obviously have no experience with such people. But no hard feelings.


----------



## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

Ato said:


> You obviously have no experience with such people. But no hard feelings.




You have to have the *WILL* to get somewhere , anywhere, if not you wont get anywhere, you have to help yourself.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

MrBurns said:


> You have to have the *WILL* to get somewhere , anywhere, if not you wont get anywhere, you have to help yourself.





amen to that 


but when people lose there will as ato is trying to say, what then ?


----------



## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> amen to that
> 
> 
> but when people lose there will as ato is trying to say, what then ?




There has to be a safety net , with expert help to see if the person is depressed or otherwise in need of help.


----------



## Timmy (10 December 2009)

Been a drop off in interest in threads such as this as the employment numbers improve in Australia.  

Today's figures from the ABS available at http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0?OpenDocument

-----------

NOVEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

    * Employment increased to 10,844,400
    * Unemployment decreased to 659,400
    * Unemployment rate decreased to 5.7%
    * Participation rate remained at 65.2%
    * Aggregate monthly hours worked increased to 1,528.3 million hours



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

    * Employment increased 31,200 (0.3%) to 10,868,200. Full-time employment increased 30,800 to 7,627,400 and part-time employment increased slightly, up 300, to 3,240,700.
    * Unemployment decreased 13,300 to 653,100. The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased 11,100 to 486,400 and the number of persons looking for part-time work decreased 2,100 to 166,700.
    * Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pt to 5.7%. The male unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pt to 5.8% and the female unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pt to 5.5%.
    * Participation rate decreased slightly to 65.2%.
    * Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 13.4 million hours (0.9%) to 1,536.3 million hours.



LABOUR UNDERUTILISATION (QUARTERLY CHANGE)

    * Trend estimates: Labour Force underutilisation rate constant at 13.6%
    * Seasonally adjusted estimates: Labour Force underutilisation rate decreased 0.1 pt to 13.5%. The male labour force underutilisation rate decreased 0.1 pt to 11.9% and the female labour force underutilisation rate decreased 0.3 pts to 15.3%.

---------------------


----------



## Lucky_Country (10 December 2009)

I can only see a further increase in the ammount of full time jobs from here on in.

Resource companies will be hiring bitime in the New Year with some massive investment projects coming onstream.

Intrest rates will rise again in Febuary but the housing sector maybe more robust than I originally thought.

Peak unemployment is now in at 5.8%

Could be an interesting year with regards to the stockmarket in 2010 as more revenue comes into the market place from more peoples Super.


----------



## Soft Dough (10 December 2009)

Lucky_Country said:


> Could be an interesting year with regards to the stockmarket in 2010 as more revenue comes into the market place from more peoples Super.




Yes, and as the banks rightfully increase margin from people who can afford to pay for it.


----------



## Krusty the Klown (10 December 2009)

Unemployment rate in my part of the country 9.8%.

Very tough.


----------



## Timmy (10 December 2009)

Krusty the Klown said:


> Unemployment rate in my part of the country 9.8%.
> 
> Very tough.




Good point Krusty, this is the sort of thing the aggregate figures hide.  I hope, though, the situation there is at least on the improve?


----------



## boofhead (10 December 2009)

Figures hide a lot. I know in my area this year a number of people have been made redundant and not eligible for Centrelink benefits and don't take part in that system. Also in NW Tas there have been some announcements of some closures which will impact next year. Luckily the government has stepped in to help them retrain and get skills for the unknown jobs where no specifics are mentioned.

Centrelink and ATO could probably help a lot to get figures on unemployment instead of using extrapolated ABS figures.


----------



## Gerkin (10 December 2009)

boofhead said:


> Figures hide a lot. I know in my area this year a number of people have been made redundant and not eligible for Centrelink benefits and don't take part in that system. Also in NW Tas there have been some announcements of some closures which will impact next year. Luckily the government has stepped in to help them retrain and get skills for the unknown jobs where no specifics are mentioned.
> 
> Centrelink and ATO could probably help a lot to get figures on unemployment instead of using extrapolated ABS figures.




However, toget on the ABS unemployment list, you must have activley seeked paid work,. It has nothing to do with Centrelink benefits. 

This stops the long term dole bludgers from getting on the list, but it will also show the genuine workers who are retrenched and lookinf for work who may not be eligible for benefits.


----------



## TOBAB (10 December 2009)

Lucky_Country said:


> I can only see a further increase in the ammount of full time jobs from here on in.
> 
> Resource companies will be hiring bitime in the New Year with some massive investment projects coming onstream.
> 
> ...




Totally agree. Will be a very interesting reporting season next year. We are one of the only (if only) developed countries not to fall into recession. The only to begin raising ir's. And yet the All Ords is performing on par (or even behind) the other developed countries indices. Strange.


----------



## Julia (10 December 2009)

boofhead said:


> Figures hide a lot. I know in my area this year a number of people have been made redundant and not eligible for Centrelink benefits and don't take part in that system. Also in NW Tas there have been some announcements of some closures which will impact next year. Luckily the government has stepped in to help them retrain and get skills for the unknown jobs where no specifics are mentioned.
> 
> Centrelink and ATO could probably help a lot to get figures on unemployment instead of using extrapolated ABS figures.




The government does not want the real unemployment figures published.
Makes them look bad.  That's why so many older unemployed people are put on Disability Pensions - it simply removes them from the 'seeking work' category.

Not just this government.  All colours do it.


----------



## boofhead (11 December 2009)

ABS uses 25,000 people for the survey or something. While a government may not like the real figure it would be in the best interests if the real figure were to be known. It allows proper ackowledgement and better focus.


----------



## Krusty the Klown (11 December 2009)

Timmy said:


> Good point Krusty, this is the sort of thing the aggregate figures hide.  I hope, though, the situation there is at least on the improve?




Not that I know of, that figure I quoted I got from an employment agent and that was two weeks ago.

The problem here, the Northern Rivers region of NSW, is that it is such a great place to live but there is a high proportion of residents on social security, so the local economy is quite depressed. Lots of vacant shop fronts.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 December 2009)

boofhead said:


> Also in NW Tas there have been some announcements of some closures which will impact next year. Luckily the government has stepped in to help them retrain and get skills for the unknown jobs where no specifics are mentioned.



McCain - closing

Wesley Vale pulp mill - closing

Burnie paper mill - downsizing and probable closure.

NW Tas is about to get hit pretty hard with job losses and this comes after the recent big job losses at Caterpillar etc too.


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 December 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> McCain - closing
> 
> Wesley Vale pulp mill - closing
> 
> ...




So long as all those redundant employees find at least 1 hour of piece-meal work per week, they WILL NOT SHOW UP IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT STATS.

Problem solved.


----------



## Timmy (11 February 2010)

Again, big number of jobs created in Australia.  January data released:

From: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...0-abs-data-shows/story-e6frg926-1225829141465



> THE Australian unemployment rate fell to 5.3 per cent in January, nearly a one-year low, as employers hired nearly 16,000 full-time workers.
> 
> The better-than-expected employment figures showed Australian employers created a total of 52,700 jobs, seasonally adjusted - 15,900 full-time jobs and 36,900 part-time jobs.




ABS source:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 February 2010)

Be interesting to know how many jobs the Gorgon Gas Project accounted for or particularly West Aussie all up.


----------



## Timmy (11 February 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> Be interesting to know how many jobs the Gorgon Gas Project accounted for or particularly West Aussie all up.




I think data detailing state-by-state results are released one week following the release of the summary (today's figures).  Not for specific projects, though.


----------



## nunthewiser (11 February 2010)

Knows they been re-hiring up on the mines out these parts( midwest WA).But on a different level this time ..... used the GFC to clear out all the deadwood and just hiring back the cream now ... It is having a flow on effect to all industrys supplying and serviceing the mines also.


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> I think data detailing state-by-state results are released one week following the release of the summary (today's figures).  Not for specific projects, though.




Thanks NTW, hope we see some follow through there.

Tim, most likely later because the ABS has W.A. Jan. 2010 figures at 5.0%  from a peak in Jul., Aug., Sept. 2009 of 5.4%.  

Better than every state and second to both territories. Definitely trending down.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> I think data detailing state-by-state results are released one week following the release of the summary (today's figures).  Not for specific projects, though.



The data must be available from somewhere. Just read that it's 5.4% in trend terms and 5.2% seasonally adjusted for Tasmania.


----------



## Timmy (19 February 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> The data must be available from somewhere. Just read that it's 5.4% in trend terms and 5.2% seasonally adjusted for Tasmania.




I think a paid subscription for this data is required to get it on the day.


----------



## Timmy (11 March 2010)

Slowdown in jobs growth, from the ABS today:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0



> Employment increased 400 to 10,971,100. Full-time employment increased 11,400 to 7,659,700 and part-time employment decreased 11,000 to 3,311,400.




Also, a recent article with a look at the figures more in-depth:
Low unemployment, high underemployment
Data set for the article is Sep. 2009, but I think it is still relevant.


----------



## Go Nuke (17 March 2010)

Pay, Pay, Pay......Tyco give us a payrise after a 2yr freeze due to the GFC you bastards!

I'll help do my bit for the job market soon when I and others pull the pin.

(Nothing like a bit of public humiliation for a global conglomerate) :bbat:

My partners work has just moved all their admin and accounting jobs off to China......useless bunch they are! Customer service is going out the window.


----------



## Timmy (8 July 2010)

Labour data released by the ABS today.  This thread hasn't been updated with the Australian job growth figs in a while (since the release with the March 2010 figs), and no comments since then either.
*Employment increase of more than 100,000 over the last 3 months. * 
Guess that good news doesn't attract interest like bad news does.  Funny that.

Anyways, latest data release here:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Jun 2010?OpenDocument
Summary:
*Employment increased 45,900* (0.4%) to 11,100,700. Full-time employment increased 18,400 to 7,794,700 and part-time employment increased 27,500 to 3,306,000. 

April figs here:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@...A22DCA9B3EE9F917CA25773D001842EC?opendocument
Summary:
*Employment increased 33,700* (0.3%) to 11,025,500. Full-time employment increased 37,500 to 7,735,500 and part-time employment decreased 3,900 to 3,290,000.

May figs here:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@...BAEE975B131AD2CACA25775900180C64?opendocument
Summary:
*Employment increased 26,900* (0.2%) to 11,056,700. Full-time employment increased 36,400 to 7,779,700 and part-time employment decreased 9,400 to 3,277,000.

Some media reports:
*Surprise surge in jobs*
http://www.smh.com.au/business/surprise-surge-in-jobs-20100708-101da.html?rand=1278555958525

*Jobs surge thrashes forecasts *
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-to-18-month-low/story-e6frg926-1225889352210

Sorry for the good news.  I'll shut up now.


----------



## Bushman (8 July 2010)

Full employment = wage pressure = inflationary pressures = higher interest rates.  

But great news from a 'double dip' perspective.


----------



## sinner (8 July 2010)

Bushman said:


> Full employment = wage pressure = inflationary pressures = higher interest rates.
> 
> But great news from a 'double dip' perspective.




Yes. Finally someone else who sees the rock and hard place we as a country are between.

If everything is fine: then prepare for a return to mortgage stress. We can go back to having an overheated economy very quickly in the right circumstances.
If everything is not fine: well...this one pretty much writes itself.


----------



## Timmy (8 July 2010)

sinner said:


> Yes. Finally someone else who sees the rock and hard place we as a country are between.




*Finally *someone else?  
You are kidding, right?
The inflation/unemployment relationship is introduced in 1st year economics.


----------



## Timmy (8 July 2010)

Bushman said:


> *Full employment* = wage pressure = inflationary pressures = higher interest rates.




You think Australia has full employment?


----------



## Bushman (8 July 2010)

Timmy said:


> You think Australia has full employment?




Near enough - pressure on wages is exacerbated by the skills shortage. 

It is a good problem to have, rather full(ish) employment than the 10% faced in US.

My main concern is the impact higher inflation has on indebted households (and therefore house prices) and consumption. It is a hot spot in our consumption-based economy over here in the eastern seaboard mexican states. Lol.


----------



## MR. (8 July 2010)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released today, expects the Australian economy to grow at a solid clip this year and next. It predicts growth of 3.0 per cent in 2010, accelerating to 3.5 per cent in 2011.

ie: Jobs, jobs and more jobs.


----------



## sinner (8 July 2010)

Timmy said:


> *Finally *someone else?
> You are kidding, right?
> The inflation/unemployment relationship is introduced in 1st year economics.




Of course, but not many seem to want to admit that Australia is in such a bind. In fact there seems to be an amnesia about the complaints regarding an overheating economy right before the Lehman Bros collapse.

But you can check, just type "mortgage stress" into Google Trends and see the result:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=mortgage+stress

You can see there was very high news reference and demand for information regarding mortgage stress, almost entirely from Australia, especially in the runup to the collapse.


----------



## Timmy (10 July 2010)

Bushman said:


> Near enough - pressure on wages is exacerbated by the skills shortage.
> 
> It is a good problem to have, rather full(ish) employment than the 10% faced in US.




It is looking that way, wonder if we see some extra participation coming in?



MR. said:


> The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released today, expects the Australian economy to grow at a solid clip this year and next. It predicts growth of 3.0 per cent in 2010, accelerating to 3.5 per cent in 2011.
> 
> ie: Jobs, jobs and more jobs.




I missed this, thanks MR.  On a wider (global) view, the report runs counter to the double-dip meme currently dominating.

Good stuff tks bushman, MR and sinner.


----------



## Timmy (13 July 2010)

Despite great employment growth, the recent _OECD Employment Outlook _(only recently released) has highlighted some areas of concern.  
Don't know about others here, but I reckon these are really serious issues, not just from an economic perspective, but a social perspective.

*"Good jobs figures" hide underemployment and its consequences.* 
(Article touches on skilled migration vs. training Australians already here, our reliance on foreign capital b/c of poor saving rates, & more).
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/catch-and-skill-our-own-20100712-107y4.html



> For while Australia is importing hundreds of thousands of workers every year, Governments, both Liberal and Labor, have remained silent on the insidious slow growth of men dropping out of the workforce in the prime of their lives.
> 
> Broadly speaking, over the past 10 years, employment rates have risen for older workers, but fallen for men of prime working age. But do you ever hear any minister talk about it? The Treasury? The Reserve Bank? The Productivity Commission? Why is no one in government asking why so many people in the prime of their working life are dropping out of the workforce - and what we should do about it?
> 
> But that's not the only weakness in Australia's labour market. The OECD says that while Australia's unemployment rate last year was the eighth lowest among its 30 members (not the lowest, as ministers sometimes claim), ''overall slack in the labour market is actually higher than the OECD average''.








and
*OECD raises doubts on job market health* (shorter of the two articles)
http://www.smh.com.au/small-busines...ubts-on-job-market-health-20100713-108cx.html



> ■ Australia has ''a large pool of under-employed workers'', who want to work full-time but can find only part-time jobs.
> ■ Australia's overall employment rates are worse than the unemployment figures suggest, because 25 per cent of those with jobs are working part-time, and 21 per cent of people of prime working age (25 to 54) have no job at all.
> 
> But the OECD's main focus is on Australia's very high rate of part-time employment, the third highest in the OECD.
> ...


----------



## MR. (15 July 2010)

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banks-housing-bias-bad-for-economy-nab-banker-20100715-10bwt.html



> Joseph Healy, business banking head of National Australia Bank.......
> Mr Healy delivered a speech on business lending to the American Chamber of Commerce in Sydney this afternoon..........
> 
> In 2000, every $1000 of home lending was matched by roughly the same amount for business. That ratio has since shifted so that today, for every $1000 of home lending, only about $600 is available for business, according to NAB research........
> ...




If only $600- is available for business from $1000- in just 10 years, you'd have to wonder what bearing it's going to have on jobs, if not now, then in the future.


----------



## sinner (18 July 2010)

Timmy said:


> *OECD raises doubts on job market health* (shorter of the two articles)
> http://www.smh.com.au/small-busines...ubts-on-job-market-health-20100713-108cx.html




Thanks Timmy, for that article.

1 in 5 people of prime working age has no job. I think it is safe to say the official number labelled "unemployment rate" is so far skewed as to be useless for anything. shadowstats puts their count of the unemployment in the US just above 1 in 5 while the government there reports at half of that.

Discouraged workers all over the world are taken off the "unemployed" register, just to goose the numbers, so pollies can say they reduced unemployment in an election year 

There are several studies which have been done, one by the ABS that shows generally in any form of recession when the prime age male workforce (not sure why this does not also apply to women, but it doesn't seem to) becomes discouraged workers it is difficult or even impossible in some cases to return those people to the workforce, even long after the recession is over.


----------



## trainspotter (12 August 2010)

*The poor rate of employment for young Australians comes as the overall jobless rate jumped to 5.3 per cent in July from 5.1 per cent in the previous month. The rate was propelled higher by a surge in the participation rate as more people sought work, surprising economists who had tipped the jobless rate to remain steady at 5.1 per cent for a third month.

Analysts interpreted the swelling numbers of those seeking jobs as a force likely to reduce pressure for higher wages, in turn relieving the urgency for the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates further to keep inflation in check.*

http://www.smh.com.au/business/youth-jobless-rate-climbs-to-nineyear-high-20100812-1213b.html

Strange as it seems I cannot find a 15 to 19 year old to work in my pearl shop. I have interviewed several and asked them to come in for a trial and they do not even bother to show up? I am thinking of employing a 45 year old. A lot more on wages but at least I know she will turn up.

Now before everyone flames me for being "age" discretionary and that I am trying to save $7.23 an hour on wages .... I already have two 40 year old women working for me and I am trying to replace the junior who left recently to go to Europe on a holiday.


----------



## poverty (14 August 2010)

What's a pearl shop?


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2010)

poverty said:


> What's a pearl shop?



You should google to find out I think... lol

Good luck with the 40 somethings trainster. They are a good bunch.


----------



## Muschu (26 September 2012)

Could this be Australia's worst boss?  Good for a laugh.


----------



## Mrmagoo (26 September 2012)

sinner said:


> Thanks Timmy, for that article.
> 
> 1 in 5 people of prime working age has no job. I think it is safe to say the official number labelled "unemployment rate" is so far skewed as to be useless for anything. shadowstats puts their count of the unemployment in the US just above 1 in 5 while the government there reports at half of that.
> 
> ...




Young women can almost ALWAYS find work. Thats why.

Plus... you've got the complication of is she unemployed or does she have pups.


----------



## Muschu (7 October 2012)

Mrmagoo said:


> Young women can almost ALWAYS find work. Thats why..




There is a serious issue in WA in getting young teachers, male or female, to leave the city to work in many remote areas where some small financial benefits are on offer.  There is also no guarantee of a later transfer to the metropotitan area.  Of course working in a very Remote Community School has many other issues attached.  But even some larger country towns are hard to staff.  Some younger graduates end up choosing to stay in the city and work in retail.


----------



## prawn_86 (11 October 2012)

14.5k new jobs created last month apparently. Expectations were for 5k

Obviously people are still hiring out there...


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 October 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> 14.5k new jobs created last month apparently. Expectations were for 5k
> 
> Obviously people are still hiring out there...




Wow. "Better than expected" official figures. Again.

Economy must be booming then.

Somewhere....


----------



## prawn_86 (8 November 2012)

Another 11k jobs created last month, compared to expectations of 200... Economists off the mark yet again 

Where are all the jobs coming from? Most of clients are saying business is OK, not good, not bad

Are us Aussies just a whinging lot looking for any excuse as to why things aren't doing well, yet they actually are?


----------



## CanOz (8 November 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Another 11k jobs created last month, compared to expectations of 200... Economists off the mark yet again
> 
> Where are all the jobs coming from? Most of clients are saying business is OK, not good, not bad
> 
> Are us Aussies just a whinging lot looking for any excuse as to why things aren't doing well, yet they actually are?




Could it be possible that things are turning around? Construction is up here in china, that means more materials...


----------



## prawn_86 (8 November 2012)

CanOz said:


> Could it be possible that things are turning around? Construction is up here in china, that means more materials...




Mining only accounts for about 2% of the workforce if i remember correctly. Health and retail are the 2 biggest sector employers and retail certianly isnt faring well


----------



## prawn_86 (6 December 2012)

Nearly 14k jobs created in Nov. 4900 Full time jobs lost with the balance being made up of casual and part-time jobs to get to the 14k figure

Only need to be working an hour a week to be classified as employed.


----------



## sails (6 December 2012)

Roy Morgan Polling has unemployment around 10%.  



> NOVEMBER UNEMPLOYMENT (10.0%, UP 0.3%) RISES TO 1.229 MILLION (UP 66,000).
> HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY 2012. RECORD NUMBER OF AUSTRALIANS
> EITHER UNEMPLOYED OR UNDER-EMPLOYED (2.222 MILLION, UP 84,000)




*



The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.0% is now almost double the 5.4% currently quoted by the ABS for October 2012.
		
Click to expand...


*
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4848/


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## piggybank (19 October 2015)

Your job may soon be obsolete:- https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/job-may-soon-obsolete-123727478.html

And these jobs are only the tip of the iceberg. I watched a program last week that mentioned that auctions (large and small - baby clothing to cranes) are booming presently - unfortunately some have resulted in jobs losses.

​
Maybe in a few years there won't be a need for too many drivers in a lot of industries e.g. trams & trains. The first two mines in the world to start moving all of their iron ore using fully remote-controlled trucks have just gone online in Western Australia's Pilbara. Mining giant Rio Tinto is running pits at its Yandicoogina and Nammuldi mine sites, with workers controlling the driverless trucks largely from an operations centre in Perth, 1,200 kilometres away. More can be read at this link:- http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-18/rio-tinto-opens-worlds-first-automated-mine/6863814 

Obviously the unions won't like it - http://www.mining.com/two-aussie-mines-start-moving-all-their-iron-ore-with-driverless-trucks/


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## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2015)

piggybank said:


> Your job may soon be obsolete:- https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/job-may-soon-obsolete-123727478.html
> 
> And these jobs are only the tip of the iceberg. I watched a program last week that mentioned that auctions (large and small - baby clothing to cranes) are booming presently - unfortunately some have resulted in jobs losses.
> 
> ...




I can see this happening in a lot of areas.  Uber, for example, with driverless cars.  Won't be that far off.  We'll see it in our lifetime.

But humans will always have things they want and need.  Since that's true, there will always be markets, just that they will change.  There will be plenty of job opportunities.

Most 3rd world countries don't even have clean drinking water. And they are mired in old fashioned religious beliefs and corruption/exploitation.  This will all undergo change at some time, I guess.  That change will require work of a certain type.


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## Wysiwyg (19 October 2015)

piggybank said:


> Your job may soon be obsolete



In the last month, technology has directly affected our work scope by reducing the man hours required. The catch 22 is all companies need to reduce costs of running the business to maintain or increase profit so the workers will always be affected. For the 'surplus' positions in a company to find employment elsewhere, there has to be new businesses created. Competition by many for a few jobs is back again.


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## satanoperca (19 October 2015)

piggybank said:


> Your job may soon be obsolete:-




This has been going on since the dawn of time.

Technology has constantly been making jobs obsolete, don't see how this time is any different, it is just progress.

Cheers


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## sptrawler (19 October 2015)

satanoperca said:


> This has been going on since the dawn of time.
> 
> Technology has constantly been making jobs obsolete, don't see how this time is any different, it is just progress.
> 
> Cheers




I think the problem is huge, the more jobs that are displaced, the less income tax paid.

This becomes problematic, as a lot of taxes recieved by the Government are income based.

The more that become displaced, have to be supported by welfare, being paid for by a diminishing workforce.

Therefore the Governments have to work out, where they get tax from, when nobody works.

That's why refugees, are flooding to welfare state countries, they know it will get a lot worse.

You may as well be on the most bouyant raft.


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## luutzu (19 October 2015)

satanoperca said:


> This has been going on since the dawn of time.
> 
> Technology has constantly been making jobs obsolete, don't see how this time is any different, it is just progress.
> 
> Cheers




Civil wars/revolution, then war of conquest.. .those too have made certain jobs obsolete and others more relevant. 

Ends with less population, a lot of stuff needing to be rebuilt (for the victor) and general stability and peace.

Also been happening since the beginning of time and probably due to too many idle hands with mouth the feed but no work to pay for it.


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## satanoperca (19 October 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Therefore the Governments have to work out, where they get tax from, when nobody works.




Simple : 

1. LAND TAX
2. Means test on the Pension
3. Make people work for social benefits, like the dole (**** they don't work anyway)
4. No free medical services if you eat donuts, smoke and drink a slab of beer a day (making people responsible for their own health)

Technology will always displace jobs, it always has and always will.

Just ask the boot maker, cabinet maker, brick layer, stone mason, typist, sign writer, sword maker, jeweler, tool maker, graphic designer, offset printer, black smith and many many many more.

Just part of life.


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## sptrawler (19 October 2015)

satanoperca said:


> Simple :
> 
> 1. LAND TAX
> 2. Means test on the Pension
> ...




You are starting to sound like Tony Abbott.

See how well that worked, the last thing people want to hear, is reality.


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## satanoperca (20 October 2015)

sptrawler said:


> You are starting to sound like Tony Abbott.
> 
> See how well that worked, the last thing people want to hear, is reality.




I don't wear buggie smugglers.

People of inherently selfish, so listening to reality is not something they can hear.


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## piggybank (20 October 2015)

satanoperca said:


> Simple :
> 
> 3. Make people work for social benefits, like the dole (**** they don't work anyway)
> 4. No free medical services if you eat donuts, smoke and drink a slab of beer a day (making people responsible for their own health)




So Satanoperca where are these people who you say don't work for their social benefits? I presume (reading between the lines) is that you think Centrelink (and alike) have not been following up on checking that these so called bludgers have been out doing those jobs given to them? 

No free medical services if you eat donuts, smoke pot or getting p----d everyday. Gee your a hard one aren't you, no compassion for those who were less fortunate than yourself. Maybe you should go out in your solid gold 4WD and face up to them and advise them how to get a job in these difficult times.


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## sptrawler (21 October 2015)

piggybank said:


> So Satanoperca where are these people who you say don't work for their social benefits? I presume (reading between the lines) is that you think Centrelink (and alike) have not been following up on checking that these so called bludgers have been out doing those jobs given to them? .




No one wants to see social benefits stopped, but there needs to be a realisation that people have to move to where the jobs are.
Everyone would prefer to live in the coastal strip from Brisbane to Perth, but it has to be accepted jobs have to be filled in the outback, if people without good reason won't do them stop their welfare.



piggybank said:


> No free medical services if you eat donuts, smoke pot or getting p----d everyday. Gee your a hard one aren't you, no compassion for those who were less fortunate than yourself. Maybe you should go out in your solid gold 4WD and face up to them and advise them how to get a job in these difficult times.




Again I see heaps of welfare recipients at the pub every day, I'm not saying they shouldn't, but as I said if our future is developing the outback. 
Sitting at the pub bitching about how tough it is getting a job, doesn't cut it, of course it is hard getting a job in the cities, everyone wants to live there.

What's your answer, just keep stacking them up, untill even you can't afford it.


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## satanoperca (21 October 2015)

piggybank said:


> So Satanoperca where are these people who you say don't work for their social benefits? I presume (reading between the lines) is that you think Centrelink (and alike) have not been following up on checking that these so called bludgers have been out doing those jobs given to them?
> 
> No free medical services if you eat donuts, smoke pot or getting p----d everyday. Gee your a hard one aren't you, no compassion for those who were less fortunate than yourself. Maybe you should go out in your solid gold 4WD and face up to them and advise them how to get a job in these difficult times.




1. no, people learn to rout the system, i have friends that have learnt to play the game and been on the dole for years, many have degrees, they choose it as a lifestyle. They know my stance, get a job.

2. Centrelink are useless, they have the capacity to stop this, but are hamstrung by goodie to shoes like yourself who think it is acceptable and the mainstream to be granted tax payers money for nothing

3. There is work for everyone, just not at wages that everyone accepts, suck it up princess, we all have to start somewhere, life is not easy.

4. How is sucking down bongs being less fortunate. I would love to do it all day long if someone is paying for my lifestyle and has nothing to do with being less fortunate.

5. Less fortunate, who the f---k are you to make assumptions about my own situation in life. Ask questions before making stupid statements without evidence or fact.

6. Just shows how silly you are, it is a platinum lambo encrusted with diamonds if you really want to know. 

7. Trolls are easily baited as they are often naive and with little general knowledge, let alone any technical skills

8. Have a nice day

9. You must be on the dole.


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## Wysiwyg (22 October 2015)

piggybank said:


> Maybe in a few years there won't be a need for too many drivers in a lot of industries e.g. trams & trains.



The business of doing away with expensive human beings is planned for the modern Roy Hill iron ore mine as this excerpt foreshadows. 



> In the future, the locomotives could become completely automated and allow Roy Hill to run driverless trains. Says R.J. Foy, a leader for on-board electronics at GE Transportation: “Small, light trains are operated driverless today at airports and some metro systems. We are working on extending that technology to automate the massive 1.5 mile long, 30,000 ton freight trains that Roy Hill wants to run.”




Thankfully, materials friction, gravity and corrosion, to name a few, are still in the engineers too hard basket.  It's a bit crazy in how we gradually do ourselves out of a career.


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## Wysiwyg (26 October 2015)

Our company is a large employer and has again foreshadowed further downsizing in coming years. I don't believe employment in non-resource related industries is soaking up the surplus because why would demand in other industries suddenly appear. Something is a bit suss. with the employment figures. I think the actual higher number of unemployed people will appear in figures when the resource related employees have exhausted their (should be) substantial savings.


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## sptrawler (28 October 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Our company is a large employer and has again foreshadowed further downsizing in coming years. I don't believe employment in non-resource related industries is soaking up the surplus because why would demand in other industries suddenly appear. Something is a bit suss. with the employment figures. I think the actual higher number of unemployed people will appear in figures when the resource related employees have exhausted their (should be) substantial savings.




Welcome onboard, many on here have being saying this is about a drop in living standards, not a hickup in the economy.

Hope you invested and saved well during the boom.


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## sptrawler (29 October 2015)

satanoperca said:


> Simple :
> 
> 1. LAND TAX
> 2. Means test on the Pension
> ...




Well the W.A State Government, has taken care of the land tax issue, in W.A

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/29935093/investors-get-land-tax-shock/

As for jobs, solarhart are going to shut down the Perth manufacturing plant, another 100 jobs gone.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 July 2016)

from YAhoo.

According to the Australian Taxation Office’s findings for 2012-13, these jobs take the top 10 spots for the highest annual salary.

*1. Surgeon*

Average annual salary: $361,202

Number of jobs: 3,570

*2. Anesthetists*

Average annual salary: $319,033

Number of jobs: 3,105

*3. Internal medicine specialists*

Average annual salary: $263,601

Number of jobs: 7,525

*4. Financial dealer*

Average annual salary: $219,213

Number of jobs: 5,090

Also read: 10 best Aussie careers for the next 10 years

*5. Legal professions*

Average annual salary: $192,189

Number of jobs: 2,645

6. Psychiatrists

Average annual salary: $186,778

Number of jobs: 2,610

*7. Mining engineers*

Average annual salary: $166,410

Number of jobs: 9,595
*
8. Other medical practitioners*

Average annual salary: $166,025

Number of jobs: 30,455

Also read: How one Aussie working mum turned her financial life around
*
9. Chief executives and managing directors*

Average annual salary: $152,364

Number of jobs: 146,355

*10. Generalist medical practitioners*

Average annual salary: $144,498

Number of jobs: 23,430

===========================================================


Yahoo Finance has identified eight Aussie jobs which have a surprisingly high wage.

*Elevator mechanic*
Elevator mechanics are often on call 24 hours per day, are required to carry and lift heavy machinery and face quite significant risk on a daily basis. But they are rewarded with a surprisingly hefty annual salary of up to $133,000.

Also read: 10 best Aussie jobs for the future

*Air traffic controller*
Being responsible for the safe arrival and departure of aircrafts has its benefits – air traffic controllers can earn up to $129,000 per year.

*Offshore underwater welder*
An Australian underwater welder – someone who repairs, installs and inspects pipelines – can earn up to $65,000 per year, but for those who are willing to take the added the risk taking that offshore to deeper oceans can see their annual salary rocket to $180,000.


*Flavourist*
A flavourist who uses chemistry to engineer artificial and natural flavours in food and drink has a job title most people wouldn’t think exist, and a $80,000 salary to match.

*Crime scene cleaner*
Some crime scenes can be pretty gruesome, but those with a strong stomach and an inclination to clean can land themselves with a decent $80,000 per year.


*Abalone diver*
Abalone divers have to brave the freezing, murky waters of Australia’s Port Lincoln and Western Australia, but for those bold enough the pay is as great as the risk at up to $120,000.

*Funeral worker*
Funeral workers perform special services including conducting and arranging funerals, and preparing remains for viewing, burial, and/or cremation. It’s a rather morbid job, but one that can earn a surprising $78,000.


*Personal shopper*
Personal shoppers do exactly what their name suggests: shop for people who don’t have the time or energy, with the potential to earn in excess of $100,000 in the meantime.


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## McLovin (18 July 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *Personal shopper*
> Personal shoppers do exactly what their name suggests: shop for people who don’t have the time or energy, with the potential to earn in excess of $100,000 in the meantime.




A friend's wife is a personal shopper. She charges $250/hour for her time. I once met a girl who was a "wardrobe consultant". She charged you to tell you how to better arrange what's in your wardrobe. I really struggled to keep a straight face.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 July 2016)

McLovin said:


> A friend's wife is a personal shopper. She charges $250/hour for her time. I once met a girl who was a "wardrobe consultant". She charged you to tell you how to better arrange what's in your wardrobe. I really struggled to keep a straight face.




There's an art to it I guess, but most artists (painters, sculptors etc) wouldn't earn $20/hr, let alone $250.  Social status can be leveraged.  If you're from a well-known family for example, you can do that sort of work and feel entitled to 250/hr and probably much more.

It goes to show that supply/demand isn't always the determining factor in earnings.  There will be someone making a fortune selling pokemon thingos somewhere in the world... probably.


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## sptrawler (18 July 2016)

Well I don't think these workers, will be getting people to shop for them.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/32080310/arrium-workers-asked-to-take-pay-cut/#page1

The squeeze is on. If the Aussie $ won't drop, wages must.IMO


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## Gringotts Bank (30 November 2016)

Source is ATO, apparently.  Not sure about accuracy.

*
Men*
Neurosurgeon $577,674
Ophthalmologist $552,947
Cardiologist $453,253
Plastic and reconstructive surgeon $448,530
Gynaecologist; Obstetrician $446,507
Otorhinolaryngologist $445,939
Orthopaedic surgeon $439,629
Urologist $433,792
Vascular surgeon $417,524
Gastroenterologist $415,192
Diagnostic and interventional radiologist $386,003
Dermatologist $383,880
Judge – law $381,323
Anaesthetist $370,492
Cardiothoracic surgeon $358,043
Surgeon – general $ 357,996
Specialist physicians – other $344,860
Radiation oncologist $336,994
Medical oncologist $322,178
Securities and finance dealer $320,452
Thoracic medicine specialist $315,444
Specialist physician – general medicine $315,114
Intensive care specialist $308,033
Renal medicine specialist $298,681
Neurologist $298,543
Financial investment manager $288,790
Investment broker $286,530
Paediatric surgeon $282,508
Clinical haematologist $271,738
*Futures trader $264,830*
Endocrinologist $258,972
*Cricketer $257,527*
Rheumatologist $256,933
Dental specialist $253,442
Magistrate $246,737
*Equities analyst; Investment dealer $245,826*
Paediatrician $239,405
*Stock exchange dealer Stockbroker $238,192*
Psychiatrist $234,557
Emergency medicine specialist $232,595
*Member of parliament $232,093*
Pathologist $224,378
Company secretary – corporate governance $218,432
State governor $212,652
Actuary $196,144
Sports physician $187,468
Petroleum engineer $185,808
General medical practitioner $184,639
Chief executive officer; Executive director; Managing director; Public servant – secretary or deputy secretary $181,849
Mining production manager $179,439


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## basilio (9 February 2018)

*Five days pay for 4 days at work !*
It will be interesting to see how this workplace experiment plays out.  A New Zealand firm is giving all employees a day off a week but not reducing pay.  They are banking on employees being more focused and effective while at work and believe they will end up with a more committed workforce and at least the same  bottom line result. Interesting to see how it pans out and, if it is successful, how many other  workplaces decide to follow suit.

If one thinks about it,  if a workplace offers people a 4 day week but expects real focus and good results then it should end up attracting and holding the top end of talent in the marketplace. And of course the bottom line would still be attractive.

* Work four days, get paid for five: New Zealand company's new shorter week *
Perpetual Guardian says it is experimenting with a rota that rewards employees the same for less work

Eleanor Ainge Roy in Dunedin

 @EleanorAingeRoy 
Fri 9 Feb 2018 01.23 GMT   Last modified on Fri 9 Feb 2018 03.11 GMT


*Shares*
944




A New Zealand company is on the cusp of granting its employees the ultimate in work life balance: four days work for five days pay. Photograph: Simon Ritzmann/Getty Images
A New Zealand company is on the cusp of granting its employees the ultimate in work-life balance: four days work for five days pay.

Perpetual Guardian, a trustee company, has become the first major business in the country to embark on a creating a workplace “fit for purpose for the 21st century”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...or-five-new-zealand-companys-new-shorter-week


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